Econometrics of the forward premium puzzle

View/Open

Date

Author

Metadata

Author

Chakraborty, Avik, 1975-

Haynes, Stephen E., 1945-

Abstract

This paper explores from a new perspective the forward premium puzzle, i.e., why a regression of the change in the future spot exchange rate on the forward premium paradoxically yields a coefficient that is frequently negative. This traditional specification is compared theoretically and empirically to a "level" regression of the future spot rate on the current forward rate, which does not display the puzzle. We explore both non-rationality and risk premium explanations. The general conclusionis that, with non-rationality, any modest deviation from unity in the level coefficient becomes greatly magnified in the forward premium coefficient because of the stationary/nonstationary properties of the relevant variables, thereby generating the puzzle.

UO prohibits discrimination on the basis of race, color, sex, national or ethnic origin, age, religion, marital status, disability, veteran status, sexual orientation, gender identity, and gender expression in all programs, activities and employment practices as required by Title IX, other applicable laws, and policies. Retaliation is prohibited by UO policy. Questions may be referred to the Title IX Coordinator, Office of Affirmative Action and Equal Opportunity, or to the Office for Civil Rights. Contact information, related policies, and complaint procedures are listed on the statement of non-discrimination.