First, let me tell you who I am not going to pick in the Travers Stakes.

I have had zero luck backing Bob Baffert in the Midsummer Derby. Mr. California Cool, who won't be here to watch the Travers on Saturday, sucked me in in 2011 when he brought Coil to the biggest race of the Saratoga summer.

Coil finished 10th.

The next year, he sent Liaison here for the Travers and I liked him big time. Baffert crushed me again when Liaison chugged home ninth.

And now here we go again. Here comes Baffert (well, he isn't coming, he is staying home in California) again in the Travers, and he says he has a serious runner in Bayern. Apparently, Eric Donovan, the oddsmaker for the New York Racing Association, agrees, because he made Bayern the 2-1 morning-line choice for the Travers.

I'm not going down this road again. Bayern may very well take the lead as soon as the gates open and never be caught and everything will be great in the land of Baffert.

I've been burned too many times. I'm not going there.

Bayern is the best horse Baffert has brought to the Travers since his greatest one, Point Given, came here in 2001 and won the Travers. I get that.

"(Bayern) is better than those horses," Baffert told me, referring to Coil and Liaison, and I have no doubt about that. "He is a real fast horse."

I have no doubt about that, either.

When the gates open in the Travers, Bayern will bound out to the lead and dare anyone to come and run with him. If no one does, there is concern from the rest of the Travers trainers that he might not get caught.

As fast as Bayern is and as dominating as he looked in the Haskell at Monmouth last month (he won by seven lengths), there is the question about the distance. True, he was on cruise control in the Haskell and looked like he could have gone two miles without a problem.

He'll be running against better horses in the Travers. The distance could get him. He might not have as much left for that final eighth of a mile. Even Baffert said he doesn't know if the horse gets the distance. He hopes. I am going to throw him out.

It looks to me that this is a race between the top two finishers in the Jim Dandy, the traditional Travers prep.

Last month, Wicked Strong, with the addition of blinkers, looked like a different animal than the one we saw in the Triple Crown where he was fourth in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

He was closer to the pace and looked like he had more in the tank when he beat Tonalist, the Belmont winner, to the wire. Tonalist will love the extra ground in the 11/4-mile Travers. And his backers will say he will be wound tighter for Saturday than he was in the Jim Dandy.

That might be true. But I give Wicked Strong a wicked big chance to give trainer Jimmy Jerkens his second Travers win. He won it in 2010, with his first Travers starter, Afleet Express. Wicked Strong will keep Bayern honest, and I think he goes by him and then holds off the charge of Tonalist.

Mr Speaker could very well be the wildcard here. He is coming into the Travers after proving to be a very good runner on the grass. He won the Belmont Derby — on grass — at the Travers distance. He puts that form on dirt, watch out. I think he hits the board.

Kid Cruz, who had a strange trip in the Jim Dandy, is another board possibility and I think V.E. Day and Cash Now, the top two from the Curlin, might make a dent.

One thing I do know. This time around, I won't use Baffert. So, he'll probably win.