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This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 26th, 2013 at 10:02 am and is filed under Weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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216 Responses to 12z GFS

Well, 06z is the third GFS run in row now that has the Monday system a tad warmer, moves in the chilly dry air, and then gradually warms us up and then some rain with no snow likely in PDX. While 00z EURO was great, can’t ignore this GFS trend. If GFS does this again on 12z and doesn’t show signs of going toward EURO at all, I think I have to pull back on my current “cautiously optimistic” status for any snow in PDX out of this event, even for a transition event on the tail end. Fingers crossed, but can’t ignore this GFS trend.

The new 00z GFS shows a 500 foot snow level on Monday with a chance of sticking snow down to sea level if moisture is heavy enough. The best case scenario is an inch of snow down to the floor. After that we get modified arctic air as strong gorge winds show from hour 162 to hour 180. After that there is the resolution change and show east winds dying down but that will not be the case. I suspect that PDX will get a nice overruning event of snow/fleet.freezing rain at the worst as the models never see the gorge influence especially since east of the Cascades will be very cold.

Beware of “inverse wishcasting.” Getting all pessimistic and insisting it’s going to be a bust just because you feel it in your guts and a few outliers say so is as much wishcasting as insisting the outliers saying there’s going to be cold and snow are going to come true.

The Ensemble isn’t bitter -8c to -12c over PDX, but remember very cold east wind, modified or true arctic air Columbia Basin = PDX always colder than forecast. I learned that many years ago and sometimes the influence it’s significant like 4-8 F colder.

Highs in the low-mid 30’s with lows in the low-mid 20s followed by an inversion (a cold one at that) with bitter east wind. After that who knows, even if this is the pattern we get its still VERY good by NW standards

I feel like someone needs to get out ahead of this, so I’ll do it. A couple of less than ideal model runs do not denote a pattern change, particularly without any ensemble data. Just as one cannot get too high about a run, one cannot get too low. We’re barely within the 120 hour window, and three days from the 72 hour window, so everyone SLOW DOWN. Otherwise this place will get dysfunctional quick

You seem to have changed your ideas. A couple years ago you seemed to be out of a job and open to things and now you are just bitter and sending pictures from across the river with a good sunrise where you work. A big deal about Milwaukie not getting weather you don’t
approve of.

And I’m the troll? Nothing out of you Josh for weeks, perhaps months, and your last 4 posts today have been direct jabs at me, and completely lacking in weather related content. Keep it up, and Mark is going to catch on to what you’re really doing here…

Those Canadians know a little something about cold air, so maybe the GEM is on to something, eh? But yeah, what a letdown after this morning’s 12z extended WRF-GFS run… I suppose there’s still a chance the 00z extended will give us some hope.

Omg!!! 00z is not very good people, but may flip back to our favor I have seen it before. Its going to be cooler than norm but nothing epic this run so far! Most going to our east and a bit north of us so far this run! Grrrr!

PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS
I am a lifelong W. Oregonian, weather enthusiast, occasional blogger, mostly lurker type person.
Lots of compelling stuff going on and that is for sure.
Given the general concert of the models, I think that we would mostly all agree that SOMETHING intriguing weather wise is likely to occur within the coming days (weekend-beyond.)
But-as always-“the devil is in the details” (which is why we are all glued to this blog!)

E.g. Will the ensuing pattern end up a wimpy garden variety cold snap–with initial moisture outrunning the cold air followed by cool/cold conditions for a day or two and then a mild moist Pacific system which quickly pushes it all away?–which appears to be TV met Matt Zaffino’s current take–(and which I find a bit odd because he is typically one of the ones with superseding “event passion”.)

OR will it be something FAR more epic/dramatic (which is what most of us in this forum are all pulling for!!!) and DOES seem possible!

Or–more likely–something in between!

The NOAA people seem to be fairly bullish–although they, too, seem to be in a rather conservative mode. I do find it interesting that they are under billing our imminent event as likely being one that produces “the coldest air of the season”! Never mind the fact that if it Is anything like the last few years it may well be the ONLY cold air of the season!

‘Can’t wait for Mark’s next post. He really is good and doesn’t pull punches.

Anyway, here’s hoping with you all for an optimal outcome. Nothing like a winter wonderland event in an area that rarely gets them! AND furthermore the 55 Portland snowplows-sanders are getting rusty! It has been a while!

According to *this model run*, snow chances for Sunday/Monday on the valley floor are over. It’s too warm as moisture moves through, then the atmosphere dries out as temps drop. That leaves a transition event at the end of a cold snap as our next best bet for snow or zr. But again, that’s just one model run. But it is what *this* model run says.

MARK’S TWITTER FEED

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