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With Dmitri Medvedev's Approval At An All-Time Low, His Replacement Is Increasingly Likely

Levada just released the latest of their invaluable tracking polls and the results were not auspicious for the country’s political leadership. Compared to the results from October, both Vladimir Putin (-3%) and Dmitri Medvedev (-5%) saw noteworthy decreases in their popularity. At first glance, it would certainly appear that Russia’s slowing economy is having an impact on its politics.

Putin’s 61% approval is quite bad compared to his historical track record, but there are some logical reasons to avoid over-reaction: it comes after two years of rough stability in the polls, his approval rate is still firmly above 50%, and his November 2013 number is within the margin of error of several of his other recent results. A bad number, yes, but not necessarily a catastrophic one. To put Putin’s current polls in a little more context, his 61% approval is about 1% lower than it was in January of 2013, which was his weakest performance over the past 10 years.

However, while Putin’s trajectory over the past two years is broadly flat, Dmitri Medvedev’s has been relentlessly negative. Here’s what has happened to his popularity over the past three years:

That graph demonstrates an incredibly clear and consistent downward path that shows no signs of slowing down. In a place like Russia, those are poll numbers that have to spell political doom, particularly when you consider all of the many advantages that the system of government accords to those who are in power. There’ s just no way to spin it: 46% approval is awful.

I’m try to refrain from making big, outlandish predictions but if Medvedev’s poll numbers head much further south there is no way he lasts as prime minister. Unless those numbers tick back up above 50% my guess is that he will be replaced early in the new year, likely by former finance Minister Alexey Kudrin.

Russia’s government is (of course) not perfectly reflective of public opinion and only the very naive would expect that opinion polls inevitably lead to changes. There are a range of issues where the Kremlin’s policy will undoubtedly continue to go against popular will.* But Medvedev is rapidly transforming into a political liability, and a group as poll-focused and risk-adverse as that in the Kremlin cannot long ignore this. Putin values loyalty and does a reasonably good job of picking his battles, but if Medvedev makes his survival less likely he will be cut loose.

Maybe something will change. Maybe the November numbers were just bad luck and, come December, both Putin and Medvedev will experience a boost in the polls. But what seems a lot more likely is that Medvedev will serve as the scapegoat for the country’s recent bout of economic weakness and that his time as prime minister is drawing to a close.

* these are primarily economic issues, where support for the government’s liberal-ish economic policy has never been particularly strong. Research has consistently shown that Russians want their government to take a far more active role in taxing the rich and providing jobs, pensions, healthcare, etc.

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