Saturday, 1 August 2015

In an effort to separate the reality from the political rhetoric, we asked Professor John Salt of UCL’s Migration Research Unit to respond to some of the most common assertions about immigration to the UK.

Oh boy… *gets popcorn*

Is Britain full?

"The problem here is that there has never been an accepted optimum population level as there are all sorts of constraints. There are various land uses that housing must compete with. For example, you could say that if we hadn’t built all the golf courses we have in Surrey, then we’d have a lot more space to build housing and therefore be in a better position to manage an increased population.

"It’s really a matter of perception and what people are comfortable with. Many of the problems associated with immigration are regionally specific. For example, one of the big problems in the South East is water supply and it could be said that immigration in that region is adding to that pressure, but that is very different to saying Britain is full up. It is possible to divert resources to those areas experiencing most pressures associated with immigration, from those that do not.

"Logic dictates that you cannot keep increasing your population forever. However, when I first began studying this subject in the 1960s, the assumption was that the population would increase to as much as 80 million by the end of the century. All sorts of regional strategies were developed, including plans to create substantial extra capacity in towns like Milton Keynes, Swindon and Northampton. But then the pill was invented and that simply didn’t happen."

Translation: “You’re stupid and racist. Let them all in.”

Are immigrants really taking our jobs?

There are some very interesting figures that relate to this, from the time around the turn of 2004 and 2005 when something like a quarter of a million Poles entered the UK. However, recorded unemployment rates went down between 2003 and 2005, and recorded vacancy rates actually went up slightly, which would seem counter-intuitive. There are of course other factors at play, and people will make of that what they will, but the data would suggest that they weren’t taking the jobs of Brits.

One of the arguments is that certain easy-entry occupations are disproportionately affected, such as catering, food processing, driving jobs and construction, where it is often claimed wages are driven down. The econometric evidence suggests immigration doesn’t generally impact on the pay or employment rates of existing citizens. People in lower paid jobs are more likely to be affected, but even then the effect, statistically speaking, is relatively small.

Translation: “You’re stupid and racist. Let them all in.”

Are most immigrants here illegally?
I am often posed this question and my stock answer is that there are only two countries that really have any idea how many immigrants have entered illegally, and they are Australia and North Korea.
This is because Australia counts everyone in and out, while North Korea has border controls that most people would consider unacceptable.

For other countries, by definition, we don’t know how many people are there illegally. Many of the people who are in the country illegally are people who have entered legally, but stayed beyond the period they had permission for. But the number of people who actually get into Britain illegally must be pretty small, due to the stringent checks that exist at our main points of entry.

Translation: “You’re stupid and racist. Let them all in.”

Do immigrants claim a disproportionately high amount in welfare and benefits payments?

The studies that have been done do show that immigrants are less likely to claim benefits that native Britons. However, the proportion varies by origin. People who have asylum claims, for example, are not allowed to be employed while their application is being processed, so it is inevitable that they will need more support through welfare payments. But again, that is a relatively small group. On the whole, the story is that migrants are less likely to access benefits payments.

Translation: “You’re stupid and racist. Let them all in.”

Do immigrants put too much strain on education and health services?

I think what does put pressure on these services is the relative age structure of populations. One of the features of the Polish and other eastern European communities which developed in Britain is that they were largely comprised of younger people, who are of course more likely to have children, which will in turn put greater pressure on schools. But authorities will often have data that show this is likely to happen, so should be better placed to deal with those changes.

The other thing to mention is the number of immigrants who work in health and care sectors and recent reports have suggested as many as a one in four new nurses are recruited from abroad.
Services may be under pressure, but you simply cannot generalise. Our research indicates that it is always important to look at the routes of entry, which are labour, family, students and asylum. Each of these may have different effects the provision of services and must be taken into account by policy makers at national and local levels.

15 comments:

'In 1991 - as the Cold War was ending - he sprang to prominence by warning European ministers that their immigration policies were too weak to cope with the coming tide of immigrants from Russia, the Eastern Mediterranean and Africa.

In particular he warned that illegal immigration and abuse of asylum laws were bound to increase to crisis point.'

You should be nice to that guy, he will be your next PM. He managed to say words, important, well thought out sounding words, to every question without actually answering any of them. With that skill he could be elected.

No one knows how much immigrants claim in benefits, the government does not record the information. Which is slightly suspicious however Migration watch figures show that immigrants on average probably claim more than non Brits

Another load of b*ll*cks from a tunnel visioned academic who will never be one of those affected by uncontrolled immigration. As an academic, he would no doubt be willing to take part in a social experiment where he returns home to find 3 Somalis in his house telling him that he has to provide them with food, somewhere to sleep and give them money to spend on what they want. The following week he discovers that 2 of his new residents have moved their wives and children in so they will need sole access to more of the accommodation and more money. Add the grandparents the week after that and they are then told that their English lifestyle and habits conflict with those of others in the house and they have to change that lifestyle to conform more with the Somalian traditions. Eventually, they are told to leave that house as it is impossible for all to live together without discord. Now, change that house to any town or city and multiply the situation many times and you have the current situation in this country. Unfortunately, academics and left wing social experiment exponents are unable to see this and, forsaking any element of reason, logic, and common sense, can only see what their political views allow them to see. What was it that Private Frazer used to say in 'Dad's Army'?Penseivat

Of course the real problem, which nobody seems to want to address, is not the numbers or the jobs: it's the culture. The left have spent the last 40-50 years telling us that Britain has no culture, or a least not one worth preserving and that we should welcome 'diversity'. Britain does have a culture though and part of that is our habit of, mostly, obeying the law, accepting the result of elections without rioting and tolerating what others do in the privacy of their own homes. None of this current wave of illegals share any of this culture and that is the real problem. Unless something is done about it within the next 5 years, Britain will no longer be recognisable as a civilised country.

Sure, let them all in. Send the immigration bods to Calais, with paperwork and buses. Just a couple of tiny things, nothing unreasonable.

1) Those that refuse to board the buses are probably people traffickers, let's have them sent straight to police stations in rural nowhere. That ought to calm the usual lawyers down when they realise they have to venture beyond Zone 6, and there's no sympathetic bloggers in those parts.

2) All the buses avoid London, Leeds, and the big cities, and go to e.g Lincolnshire, North Wales, Northumbria- the poor rural areas, where there are jobs, and the inhabitants/local councils are much less likely to tolerate any subsequent demands to be accommodated or given special treatment. After all, housing's cheaper there, and the incoming have no pre-existing ties to an area they can use to wangle a flat in Central London that 99% of folk couldn't afford. Let's take some of the pressure off Kent, and as a side effect, the possible civil war/ethnic cleansing will be too far from Islington to be noticed by the national press.

Those who complain and demand to be taken to a city can go to Belfast.

"As an academic, he would no doubt be willing to take part in a social experiment where he returns home to find 3 Somalis in his house telling him that he has to provide them with food, somewhere to sleep and give them money to spend on what they want."

If Ch4 buys the rights, I'm SO watching that one!

"Of course the real problem, which nobody seems to want to address, is not the numbers or the jobs: it's the culture."