Chuck Hagel’s Chances

Christians United for Israel, which calls itself the largest pro-Israel organization in the United States, issued a statement opposing Chuck Hagel’s nomination as secretary of defense. So did Concerned Women of America. Both groups drew attention to the former Republican Senator’s record on Iran and Hezbollah. Meanwhile the Log Cabin Republicans purchased a full page ad in The Washington Post to attack him on gay rights.

Yet, despite aggressive criticism, it’s unlikely that the Senate will actually reject Mr. Hagel. When it comes to cabinet-level nominees, it’s extremely unusual for the Senate to reject anyone.
In its history, the Senate has confirmed over 500 cabinet nominations and only denied nine. The last time that happened was 24 years ago, when the Democratic-controlled Senate voted down George H.W. Bush’s nominee for defense secretary, John Tower. Mr. Tower’s obituary in The Times noted “public allegations of womanizing and heavy drinking.”

Nor is it common for nominees to withdraw at risk of rejection, although in recent years this has happened with slightly greater frequency. Tom Daschle withdrew under President Obama, Bernard Kerik and Linda Chavez under George W. Bush, and Herschel Gober, Anthony Lake and Zoe Baird under Bill Clinton. But only Ms. Baird was up for a “top four” post, like Mr. Hagel is.