The US space agency
NASA has provided a number of resources
offering more information about the 2012 phenomenon and
debunking many of the assertions made doomsday
theorists.

As the dreaded date approaches, the Science
Media Centre in New Zealand has contacted experts seeking
insights into the basis of such theories and why they
persist in the face of contrary evidence.

Feel free to use
these quotes in your reporting. If you would like to speak
to an expert please contact the SMC (04 499 5476;
smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz).

NB: These quotes are
heavily abridged. Full commentaries can be found on the SMC website.

Dr Matthew
Dentith, Faculty Member, Department of Philosophy,
University of Auckland, wrote his PhD thesis on the
understanding and evaluation of conspiracy theories and
comments:"If the world
ends on the 21st of December, it's going to be a surprise --
despite the numerous predictions about that date -- because
the various arguments being put forward in support of an
impending apocalypse are, typically, suspect. They either
rely on evidence which does not strongly suggest the end of
the world will occur on the 21st of this month, or the
predictions are so vague that almost any calamitous event
will satisfy such a claim.

"Doomsday theories like the
claim that the Mayan Long Count Calendar predicts the end of
the world are common, popular and -- thus far -- all
examples of failed predictions.

"As such, we have to ask
not just 'Why are they popular?' but also 'Should we believe
them?' We need to ask whether the evidence is the kind of
thing most people would find plausible, and does the
evidence give us good reason to treat the prediction
seriously?

"All doomsday theories rely upon controversial
interpretations of their supporting evidence. For example,
the Mayan Long Count Calendar does not predict a catastrophe
on the 21st of December but, rather, the end of a cycle. To
infer that the end of a cycle entails an apocalypse is like
claiming the world is going to end because the year is
coming to a close.

"Even if the evidence wasn't
controversial, the actual argument doesn't strongly suggest,
let alone entail, that we should believe there is going to
be a worldwide calamity this Friday.

"Given the
poor track record of doomsday predictions in general and the
various other rival, non-doomsday hypotheses, the 21st of
December 2012, is likely to be as interesting as the 21st of
December 2011 or, indeed, any random day of the
year."Associate Professor
Marc Wilson, from the Department of Psychology, Victoria
University Wellington, comments:

"This year is
not special. Remember Y2K? Didn't happen. There have been at
least 100 internationally recognisable doomsdays predicted
since 2000!

"It is important to point out that following
doomsday predictions doesn't mean that someone is
necessarily psychologically unwell. It's inappropriate to
characterise people as nuts because they are concerned about
the Mayan hypothesis!

"If we see bad stuff happening, we
want to know why it's happening so we can prevent it. Lots
of things we just can't prevent though, and that's a very
uncomfortable feeling that we might deal with by looking for
reasons.

"It's a quick step from there to making
connections or seeing patterns in the 'evidence' that might
support what many of us think are odd beliefs. The whole
Mayan Calendar thing is very like this - it's got numbers
and patterns, and it appears to produce a date that people
can hang on to. I will eat my hat if the world comes to an
end (or rather I will NOT eat my hat when it DOESN'T come to
an end).

"What will happen when people awaiting doomsday
inevitably wake up on the 22nd and everything's still there?

"This is a fundamentally uncomfortable position to
be in because we all have a drive to believe that we're
rational and sensible rather than gullible and credulous!
The phenomenon is technically called cognitive
dissonance.

"Some will rationalise it by claiming they
didn't believe it in the first place (sour grapes type
behaviour) and they will really convince themselves that
this was the case.

"Some will rationalise it by
revisiting the evidence and finding the flaw that leads to
them to what the REAL date will be (and it starts over
again).

"Some people will also rationalise the
non-event as having happened BECAUSE they believed in
doomsday -- 'If we hadn't had our faith it would have
happened - we prevented doomsday!'

"I have no doubt
that if something vaguely doomsdayish happens on the 21st
that at least some people will claim that as evidence - Ken
Ring predicted a massive quake in Christchurch last year
that didn't actually happen, but a smaller 4.0 did and that
was then used as evidence that the prediction was right but
the scale was wrong.

"In the case of Harold Camping
who predicted several 'raptures' in 2011, he finally turned
around and apologised for his hubris in trying to predict
God's will, and essentially suggested it was a lesson
designed to humble people like him - but the underlying
belief system remained intact."

The Science Media Centre (NZ) is
an independent source of expert comment and information for
journalists covering science and technology in New Zealand.
Our aim is to promote accurate, evidence-based reporting on
science and technology by helping the media work more
closely with the scientific community. The SMC (NZ) is an
independent centre established by the Royal Society of New
Zealand with funding from the Ministry of Business,
Employment and Innovation . The views expressed in this
Science Alert are those of the individuals and organisations
indicated and do not reflect the views of the SMC or its
employees. For further information about the centre, or to
offer feedback, please email us at smc@sciencemediacentre.co.nz.

Our aim is to promote accurate, evidence-based reporting on science and technology by helping the media work more closely with the scientific community.

The Science Media Centre is New Zealand's only trusted, independent source of information for the media on all issues related to science. Thousands of news stories providing context from and quoting New Zealand researchers have been published as a direct result of our work.

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