MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews is a longtime follower of Pennsylvania politics, as any casual viewer of "Hardball" knows, and the PA native even flirted with a Senate bid himself. But when it came to gauging the strength of Joe Sestak's candidacy, Matthews fell flat -- much as he did when he asserted that it was simply impossible for Democrats to use reconciliation to pass health care reform.

Matthews diagnosed several problems with the congressman's insurgent campaign, primarily that he was "not tough enough."

Even though Sestak informed Matthews that he was raising as much money as Specter and had five million dollars in the bank, Matthews was unmoved. "This guy can't raise any money right now," he says of Sestak in the third person, before talking about Specter's fundraising. "You're gonna beat this guy?"

Sestak explained his advantage over Specter. "I honestly believe something," said the former Navy Admiral.

Matthews, however, did allow some room for error. "Maybe I know too much," the talk-show host conceded.