Although, I have already gotten the first PFO of the season. About a week after the due date passed. Talk about getting shitcanned in a hurry. Ah! That fresh PFO smell. It's a pungent aroma, really stings the nostrils!

I've tried to figure out the probabilities on this question, but I'm not quite sure how (I do know the math gets complicated): if say 5 percent of applicants will be long-listed (that might be a high number -- I was figuring 20/400), and you apply to 50 jobs, how many interviews will you get if you're getting interviews at the average rate (and no, it's actually not 5 percent, it goes up)? I'm looking for people who know the math here or can direct us to links that explain the right math.

I'm pretty sure that to calculate your chances of getting one *or more* jobs, you take 1-[percentage of not getting the job raised to the power of the number of jobs you applied for]. So, e.g., if there's a 99 percent chance of not getting the job, for each of 5 jobs, then the chance of getting one *or more* of those jobs is 1-(.99*.99*.99*.99*.99)= about .5 or 5 percent.

DISCLAIMER: I am not a mathematician nor a probability expert. I do have a bit of math background, but I just googled these questions, and am hoping someone more mathematically astute (or better at googling) can help me answer the question about interview rates.

It is crazy to think that anyone would have received one this early (Most of my applications haven't even passed their due dates yet), but I have respect for people who notify you early rather than stringing you along as long as possible. Early rejections always beat late rejections.

I must say, I really appreciate how many departments are using Interfolio now, and how EASY and FREE it is for me to apply (beyond my annual Interfolio dues). Out of 7 jobs I've applied for, 5 used Interfolio.*

It also makes me hate even more the ones that use some stupid, clunky software like PeopleSoft, where I have to pay extra to have my letters delivered.

PFO from Lyman Briggs two weeks ago for the Academic Specialist position. I appreciated the quick response.

"Did anyone ever get interview requests in November?"

Got two last year: one around mid-Nov. and one right before Thanksgiving. The latter was for an interview at the Eastern APA, the former for an interview that took place by Skype one week after the invitation.

Several jobs I applied to this year have sent messages indicating that first-round interviews would take place sometime in November.

Put the number of applications in for N and the probability that any application succeeds for p. Enter a value for k -- when you hit calculate, it will tell you the probability of getting exactly k successes for your choice of N and P.

I'm confused: have these schools sent out invitations for interviews yet, or is this information coming from the schools themselves? Should I considered myself rejected from these schools? Or is there still hope?

I think this list could be a huge service to people on the job market and so to the profession more widely. What do you think about forwarding the request to daily nous or something to try to boost information?

8:53, you can only use that method of calculating the probability over multiple trials if each event has an independent probability. (This also applies to the calculator provided by 12:43). I highly doubt that the probabilities are independent, since it seems like similar schools look for similar features; if you appeal to one school, you would be more likely to appeal to a similar school. Further, there is no reason to believe that the probability of getting an interview with a given school is always 1%. This fits in with why the probabilities aren't independent; your materials might appeal to a certain type of school (SLAC, religious school, state school, etc) such that your odds of getting an interview at an SLAC are higher than at an R-1. An alternative method to estimate probabilities would be to collect data about last year's job market applicants and their rates of success. You could use their various characteristics (publications, teaching experience, prestige, etc) to create a statistical model (likely using logistic regression) where you could input your credentials and it could output a probability. It all assumes that you accept that induction is justified, but social scientists don't generally worry too much about Hume.

Has anyone else noticed that the philjobs site is down? I've tried it with several different browsers on both my notebook and smartphone and get the same error message. Does anybody know what's up? I know these sorts of things happen and that all things considered philjobs is a tremendous improvement on the paper JFP, but still this is a bit nerve wracking.

Echoing a sentiment above, it's unclear as to what this list is doing. Is it like the Wiki, informing job seekers that interviews have been scheduled? Or is it simply informing job seekers of how interviews will be conducted (info that's often available in the job ads)?

anon 12:48 -- im not the author of the wiki, but my understanding is that it's just info about how interviews will be conducted. Unfortunately, this info is typically *not* listed in job ads (though it occasionally is). I tried to compile this information myself, to get some idea of whether I should expect to attend the APA this year, and the vast majority of jobs I applied to mentioned nothing about interviews in their ads (this is a sample of about 50 jobs).

11:38, I didn't get a PFO from Charlotte, but I didn't get an interview either. Relatively few places send out PFOs right when they schedule interviews. I have gotten PFOs for places I never interviewed in April.

I'm pretty sure the phylo wiki is thoroughly unreliable. The last time I was on the market I saw that a school had scheduled interviews and then about a week or possibly more later got a call from that same school asking me to interview. I suppose it's possible there was a week gap between the first contact and me or that someone dropped their interview and I was an alternate, but that's not likely. Especially since they had loads of time slots open when they called me. Practically anyone else who's been on the market more than once and follows the wiki can tell you of similar experiences. I strongly suspect that there's some positive malice and vandalism at work over there, but even if that's not the explanation I don't trust it and try hard not to look at it.

12:48: The role of gathering the information I'm requesting is not to replace the Wiki or inform job candidates about how interviews are being conducted (though the latter might be something that it does).

I'm only trying to gather sociological information (in an admittedly rudimentary way) about the ways that the job market has changed in the last few years in light of the many discussions that have happened on this topic.

since this post has been offered as the post where we can comment on any job-related questions:

powerpoint for job talks. yay or nay (and for that matter, for philosophy talks in general).

not that job talks are coming up soon, but for those of us trying to make decisions about this.

Does powerpoint oversimplify things in a bad way (or maybe in a good way)? I sometimes think my powerpoint presentations are much more superficial than my hand-out presentations. I guess powerpoint lends itself to short bulleted points, and hand-outs are better for elaborate points..

i'd be very curious to see what people think.

also, any tips/tricks or possible problems when ensuring your powerpoint presentation will work in the room where you're giving the talk?