Boeing expects global aviation fleet to double in next 20 years

The market for new aircraft will be worth $4.5 trillion over the next 20 years, as 34,000 new airplanes double the size of the world’s fleet, according to the Boeing 2012 Current Market Outlook.

The company’s annual forecast reflects the strength of the commercial aviation market.

“The world’s aviation market is broader, deeper and more diverse than we have ever seen it,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

“It has proven to be resilient even during some very challenging years and is driving production rate increases across the board.”

Airline traffic is forecasted to grow at a five per cent annual rate over the next two decades, with cargo traffic projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.2 per cent.

The single-aisle market, served by Boeing’s Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, will continue its robust growth.

Widebodies, such as Boeing’s 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, will account for almost $2.5 trillion dollars worth of new airplane deliveries with 40 per cent of the demand for these long-range airplanes coming from Asian airlines.

Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets is a major factor in the increased deliveries over the next 20 years.

Low cost carriers, with their ability to stimulate traffic with low fares, are growing faster than the market as a whole.

There is also a strong demand to replace older, less fuel-efficient airplanes.

Replacement accounts for 41 per cent of new deliveries in the forecast.

The market for new airplanes is set to become more geographically balanced in the next two decades.

Asia-Pacific, including China, will continue to lead the way in total airplane deliveries.

“It’s incredible to see just how much air travel has changed since I took my first flight back in 1977,” said Tinseth.

“It has become critical to business and something we do for pleasure, to connect with family and friends.

“As the market continues to grow, especially in emerging economies, air travel will become affordable to even more people.”