The battle for Congress

The races that count

It's down to nine races in the Senate and the Republicans have the upper hand

WITH the House of Representatives safely in Republican hands, partly thanks to gerrymandering, the Democrats' only hope of gaining control of Congress lies with the Senate. At present, Republicans have a 51 to 49 majority there (counting Jim Jeffords, an independent, as a Democrat because he caucuses with them).

To shift control, the Democrats need to wrest two seats from the Republicans, though that would drop to one seat if John Kerry wins the presidency, because the vice-president can be called in to break a tied vote in the upper chamber. Of the 34 Senate races this election, only nine are competitive (see table), and the Democrats are defending four in hostile territory: Louisiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and South Dakota are all safe Bush states.

But the Republicans are not out of the woods just yet—partly because they've chosen some awkward candidates for safe seats. In protectionist South Carolina, they have chosen an ardent free-trader, Jim DeMint. In Alaska, Lisa Murkowski was nepotistically appointed to the Senate by her father, Frank, when he gave up the seat to become governor. And in Kentucky, the 74-year-old Jim Bunning has chanced his luck by likening his swarthy opponent, Dan Mongiardo, to one of Saddam Hussein's sons and by accusing Democrats of beating his wife “black and blue” at a picnic.