David DiSalvo is the author of "Brain Changer: How Harnessing Your Brain’s Power to Adapt Can Change Your Life" and the best-selling "What Makes Your Brain Happy and Why You Should Do the Opposite", which has been published in 10 languages. His work has appeared in Scientific American Mind, Forbes, Time, Psychology Today, The Wall Street Journal, Slate, Salon, Esquire, Mental Floss and other publications, and he’s the writer behind the widely read science and technology blogs “Neuropsyched” at Forbes and “Neuronarrative” at Psychology Today. He can be found on Twitter @neuronarrative and at his website, daviddisalvo.org. Contact him at: disalvowrites [at] gmail.com.

Rumors are racing that Nick Saban, the storied coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide, might leave Tuscaloosa, Alabama to take a coaching spot at the University of Texas. If he left for Texas, he’d replace another iconic coach, Mack Brown, who seems as much a part of Texas football as Bevo the longhorn steer.

There are plenty of articles written about this from a sports angle, and I don’t intend to retread that ground. Instead, I want to use Saban’s example as an excellent case study from a cognitive and behavioral psychology perspective to illustrate why someone in his position may consider his options, but will not make a radical change as some pundits are claiming.

First, the argument of stability and flux

Research of the past two decades has shown that our brains are prone to certainty, stability and consistency. While we seldom reach that idyllic place, that doesn’t stop our brains from desiring it. In psychological parlance, this is known as homeostasis – a term coined by physiologist Walter Bradford Canon to describe an organic system’s tendency toward relative stability. Our brains and nervous systems are no different than any other organic system desiring a homeostatic existence.

But, the reality is much of our lives are spent not within the warm confines of homeostasis, but in a dynamic state known as allostasis – in which we are constantly adapting to obstacles and challenges in an effort to become more homeostatic.

Another way to visualize this is that homeostasis looks a lot like the winner’s circle at a racetrack, while allostasis looks like a driver feverishly negotiating the track to get to the winner’s circle.

In Nick Saban’s case, he is enjoying a level of homeostasis that most coaches would kill for, while also getting enough allostatic flux each season to keep things interesting.

Another way to say that is, Alabama provides Saban with the best of both worlds. He’s neither mothballed in complacency nor is he forever on-guard about losing his job. He’s in the sweet spot. Arguably no other coach in college football comes anywhere close to the spot Saban has carved out for himself at Alabama. He lives in the cradle of balanced stability and flux. If you had to try to define the “perfect” coaching condition, that would be it.

Second, the argument of enduring presence

I’ve followed Saban’s career for many years. I watched him coach at Michigan State, where he turned a program that few outside of Michigan cared about into a solid Bowl contender on the national scene. Being an SEC-football fan, I then watched as he transformed LSU—a program with a respectable but erratic history—into a national championship team in record time. Then, after an unfortunate episode with the Miami Dolphins (during which allostatic struggle became his daily reality), I watched as he came back to college football to the Alabama Crimson Tide, where in a few seasons he has transformed a program that had lost its way into the reigning football dynasty.

I’ve spent time on the Alabama campus and have seen Saban’s statue standing next to other statues of esteemed coaches, including Paul “Bear” Bryant—a coach most others are still measured against.

Saban has already achieved legacy status at Alabama. The question is, has he achieved it in his own mind? I contend that he has, and that when he takes a metacognitive position (meaning he assumes a position of detachment to “think about his thinking”), he sees a picture in full. Each of the coaching positions he’s had up to this point have led to a position of enduring presence.

Said another way, Saban can trace the thread of his personal narrative and feel a visceral sense of fulfillment that few others in any coaching position, in any sport, can feel. Saban’s narrative is one of enduring presence, not only for the fans of Alabama football, but more importantly for the man himself.

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“At Alabama, Saban is part of a legendary football tradition, and he now has the opportunity to define the new era of that tradition”. You just summed up why Saban is seriously considering leaving Bama and someday will for another spot: he will always be overshadowed by the enormous popularity of Bear Bryant’s cult of personality (regardless of how many more titles he wins) and he’s straight jacketed in a role as perennial national title contender. When losing to Auburn on a freak play is your only loss and the season is considered a disappointment, time to create your own opportunity “to define the new era” in college football history at 3rd school for national title.

I’ve heard national reporters arguing the exact opposite things: 1) he won’t leave Alabama because he’s in a good situation now, and at Texas, one loss years are considered failures and 2) he will go to Texas because undefeated seasons are not acceptable at Alabama. Seems both schools have unrealistic expectations, though I wouldn’t trust any of this psychobabble from afar. None of knows what any of the parties involved are thinking.

I’m sorry but your “radical abandon” premise is the flaw in your analysis. Saban is one of the most competitive coaches in the country, constantly looking for ways to improve his team and challenge himself. What bigger challenge than to go to a program with unlimited resources, monetarily and recruiting-wise, but not living up to its potential? I’m hoping for an announcement on January 3.

Thanks for your comment. I agree with your point on Saban’s competitiveness, but my argument is that he has all of the elements in place at Alabama to continue challenging himself and improving on an already solid track record. There’s no reason to jump ship to another major program when he’s built the perfect competitiveness-challenging machine at Alabama.

It is interesting to see both sides of the argument for Nick Saban staying in Alabama where he is considered a king and gets anything he wants. On the other hand Texas would love to have him but unlike Urban Meyer making the move from Florida to Ohio I don’t believe he will be making the leap.

Psychological mumbo jumbo. The contention that objective analysis is possible is the flaw in psychological theory. Behavioral analysis cannot be objective on a case by case basis. Coach will do as he wants. There is no predictability.

REALLY?? At first I thought this might be joke. Did you really spend your time doing a psychological study of why a COLLEGE FOOTBALL coach might decide to stay at his job? Is that of such world shattering importance that it showed up in Forbes? You must have lost your collective minds. You’ve certainly forfeited a good deal of credibility. Perhaps I’ll return to reading Forbes once you’ve decided to focus on serious new again.

When the author of this article wrote that he is an SEC fan, it became clear to me that his argument is plagued by a form of confirmation bias or wishful thinking. He would like Nick Saban to remain within the SEC because he knows that he makes the SEC a more successful conference, and he fears that if Saban goes to the Big 12, this will elevate that conference and diminish the SEC at least somewhat.

You can throw out all of your psychobabble and focus on one thing — Saban is the ultimate competitor. He relishes a challenge more than anything else. In addition, the timing is perfect. He is 62 years old. If he doesn’t make a move now, he will probably be too old to take on the challenge of taking over another program in the future. And Texas is the only job that might be a more tempting challenge than continuing to win at Alabama.

Saban has already proved what he can at Bama. A glance at his career history shows that he is a restless coach with a propensity to move from challenge to challenge. And probably the only college football program out there that is more storied than Alabama’s is Texas. They also have the most resources of any program. It is the perfect fit for Saban at this point in his life. And he would have the opportunity to do something no other college coach ever has — to win a national championship at 3 different schools. Winning more at Alabama has diminishing returns at this point in his career.

Of course, there are all sorts of other personal elements of such a decision to which we aren’t privy — for example, how his family feels about it. But if his family isn’t opposed, he is definitely going to Texas.

Thanks for your comment. Arguably ALL contentions are affected by confirmation bias (I wrote a book about that very topic), so I won’t quibble with your point that I think Saban staying in the SEC is a good thing. But even if the rumors were that Saban was leaving for another SEC program, I’d argue exactly as I have in this article. You could replace Texas with Florida or Georgia or Texas A&M, it would not matter. Whether or not Saban is an asset to the SEC, the argument is exactly the same.

I understand why Texas is a draw and the argument I keep hearing is the Alabama fan base has expectations that are too high.

That’s why I don’t think he’s leaving.

After all, wouldn’t Texas, or any other college program, expect nothing less than championships from Nick Saban? Sure, he gets a year or two non-title-winning seasons if he transfers, but how long without a title would another team be willing to wait?

I agree there’s always a challenge there at Alabama. That’s the cyclical nature of college football; there are always new players. Mark Ingram, Alabama’s first and only Heisman winner, was a 3-star recruit. Nick Saban turns good talent into elite talent because Alabama seems to give him as much control and resources as he wants. I’m sure Texas could pay him tens of millions of dollars every year, but I don’t think he’d be guaranteed the same control he has at Alabama. After all, Mack Brown is the exact same age as Nick Saban, 62, but it doesn’t sound like Texas is giving Brown the kind of control Saban has at Alabama. Instead, it sounds like Brown (who just got Texas into another conference title game, no less) doesn’t want to leave but Texas is making that choice for him and putting all their stock into a coach who would be in the same position, a position he apparently doesn’t have to worry about with Alabama.

Finally, Nick Saban has been recruiting as impressively as he ever has. He says he’s been telling all his recruits for months he’s not going anywhere. They sure seem to believe him. I think the only reason people are talking about him leaving Alabama is because Texas has put all their eggs in one basket. There are rumors every year, but I think the real story is how Texas is publicly shunning their head coach and simultaneously putting the expectations of the fan base sky high. Texas won’t get Saban, but now whoever Texas does get is a disappointment, and he’ll know he’s not who Texas really wants.

You are leaving out a very important detail: Nick Saban is in tons of debt from a bad commercial property deal in Baton Rouge, LA named Perkins Rowe. It was a $170M dollar investment from a group he was a part of that sold at auction for $70M. Texas can afford to wipe away his $20M portion of that debt, pay him $10M per year and give him 1% of the Longhorn network. Who wouldn’t leave for that?