China: paramount power in South East Asia

Correspondents Report - Sunday, 21 May , 2006

Reporter: Graeme Dobell

HAMISH ROBERTSON: Well, the scandal may have dented the country's image as an emerging technological giant, but the fact remains that China is fast becoming a political and economic giant.

Indeed, some observers believe it's now the leading regional power in South East Asia.

MILTON OSBORNE: China has developed a very professional group of diplomats working in the countries of South East Asia.

In any Chinese mission you will find Chinese who speak the local language.

The old days of Chinese diplomats in Mao suits and pudding bowl haircuts have long gone.

HAMISH ROBERTSON: Dr Milton Osborne, who's been analysing South East Asia for more than 40 years, believes that China's dealings with the region have changed dramatically over the past decade.

His study for the Lowy Institute, released last week, says China has become the paramount regional power.

Dr Osborne is speaking to Graeme Dobell.

MILTON OSBORNE: I think I should explain what I mean by paramount, because I am looking for a word to describe a very complex relationship between the countries of South East Asia and China.

A word that does not mean domination, that does not mean hegemony, that can vary from country to country to a degree, but which reflects in the most basic sense the fact that all of the countries of South East Asia must pay attention to China's interests in the formulation of their external policies.

GRAEME DOBELL: Why is China paramount if, as you note, the United States is still the most powerful military force in the region?

I'm not suggesting at all that China can equal the United States' capacity for hard power projection.

But in terms of the exercise of influence, I would argue, as I do in this paper, that China has now assumed that position as a regional paramount power, the one again, as I said earlier, whose interest all of the countries of South East Asia have to take into consideration.

GRAEME DOBELL: And on the record so far, a relatively short record, how is China going to use this influence in South East Asia?

MILTON OSBORNE: It seems to me that looking at the way in which China has assumed this position, and it's a relatively recent assumption of this position, that the first and most important concern that China has is to absolutely ensure that there is no deviation from the adoption of a One-China policy by all of the countries of South East Asia.

If you look back to 2004, for instance, as a very interesting example of how China is concerned to ensure that the One-China policy is adhered to by all of the countries of the region, Lee Hsien Loong, shortly before he became Prime Minister of Singapore, went on an official visit to Taipei.

That led to a very sharp reaction from the Chinese. Visits that had been arranged, exchanges that were in prospect were cancelled, and the Singaporeans had to change their position, climb down and say, "We do realise that in our acceptance of a One-China policy such a visit as was made by our minister, Mr Lee Hsien Loong, was not appropriate. And indeed we do adopt very much a One-China policy."

Not only that, and this is the key thing in fact, Lee Hsien Loong went on to say that should there ever be conflict between China and Taipei… Taiwan, it would be Taiwan's fault.

GRAEME DOBELL: Why has China been able to mount this charm offensive so effectively?

Why has China been able to achieve this paramountcy in the '90s, when Japan wasn't able to have the same effect during its period of power during the '80s?

MILTON OSBORNE: Let's start with some of the key issues.

First of all, China, in the eyes of the South East Asians, has not been a colonial power. So that the United States, because of its previous involvement in the Philippines was a colonial power, and that is remembered by South East Asians.

In fact, one of the things that I found of considerable interest when I was carrying out research in South East Asia in November of last year, I think we often neglect to recognise the extent to which there is still lingering resentment of the colonial period.

As one very senior Malaysian official put it to me, "Perhaps we were colonised by the good guys, but we were still colonised."

So China was not and is not a colonial power.

A further factor is the manner in which the Chinese do not interfere in the internal affairs of the countries of South East Asia, most particularly in terms of not criticising any human rights issues.

Now, there is one qualification to that, which is an important one.

China will interfere or will make its views known if it is the case that the countries of South East Asia, their governments, act in a way that is discriminatory against ethnic Chinese.

One further thing about the success which the Chinese have had I think relates to the fact - and this again comes back to my definition of paramountcy - one further factor is the extent to which China is prepared to accept that other countries can have influence in the countries of South East Asia.

GRAEME DOBELL: How comfortable do you see South East Asia with this paramountcy? Do you see any signs of ASEAN seeking to balance off China, using the United States, India, Japan?

MILTON OSBORNE: I think there is a continuing readiness on the part of almost all the countries of South East Asia, with Burma a notable exception, there is a readiness to try and achieve some sort of balance. Some people would refer to it as hedging.

But I certainly don't have a general impression of people being uncomfortable. That said, it's important to recognise that there are differences in the various reactions to this position of paramountcy, as I describe it.

And Indonesia is an interesting example of that. When the Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Jakarta in April last year there was that very striking statement from the presidents of China and of Indonesia that the two countries now had a strategic alliance. And that appears to be something that the Indonesian President is very keen to maintain.

At the same time, it's quite clear that there are other elements in the Indonesian political establishment that are less comfortable than SBY (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono) himself is with this relationship with China. Certainly within the ranks of the military there is some concern about the extent to which Indonesia has moved closer to China.

HAMISH ROBERTSON: Dr Milton Osborne, the author of a paper for the Lowy Institute entitled "The Paramount Power: China and the Countries of South East Asia".