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Quebec sovereignty movement anything but dead

The Bloc Québécois was reduced to just four seats in the federal election on Monday, but sovereignists pledge to keep the movement alive.

Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois gestures as talks about the federal election results at the National Assembly in Quebec City on Tuesday. Marois is adamant that the province's separatist movement is not dead. (May 3, 2011) (CLEMENT ALLARD / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

By Kenyon WallaceToronto Star

Thu., May 5, 2011

The Bloc Québécois may have been reduced to smouldering ruins in this week’s federal election, but the Quebec sovereignty movement is anything but dead.

Following Monday night’s election results, which saw the Bloc reduced to just four seats from 47, the figurehead of the separatist struggle, Parti Québécois Leader Pauline Marois, thundered that the movement would not be dissuaded.

“The sovereignty numbers that were there before the campaign are still there,” Marois said Tuesday. “Sovereignty is as alive as it was.”

Political analysts say she might have a point given that her party is riding high in the polls and is set to take on a tired Liberal government that will have been in power for a decade when the next provincial election rolls around in 2013.

And with the majority of Quebec representation at the federal level now in the hands of an inexperienced group of newly elected New Democratic Party MPs, a failure by that party to impress its constituents could encourage voters to shift alliances rapidly, as they are apt to do.

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“The effect of the NDP campaign in Quebec has been to raise expectations,” said Pierre Martin, a political science professor at the University of Montreal. “But the NDP has no power whatsoever because they’re in opposition against Stephen Harper’s majority Conservative government. The NDP may have talked a good game, but over the next four and a half years, that’s not going to change anything.”

On Thursday, Martin said the Parti Québécois is in a position to take advantage of any impotence on the part of the federal NDP by appealing to frustrated voters.

“In the next provincial election, the PQ will likely turn to Quebecers and say: ‘We understand why you voted this way on the federal scene and we know there is demand for more openness towards Quebec’s demands. Now is the time for more radical demands and a more determined approach,’ ” Martin told the Star.

The NDP soared to unprecedented success Monday by winning 59 of 75 federal seats in Quebec, obliterating not only the Bloc, but reducing the Liberals and the Conservatives to a meagre 16 seats combined. But thanks to the Conservatives’ massive gains elsewhere in the country to attain majority government status, the NDP is facing life as the official Opposition with its hands tied.

With a majority of Quebec New Democrat MPs unable to do much, combined with a reduced federal government presence in the province, Quebecers may be tempted to look elsewhere for stronger representation, said Queen’s University political studies professor Ned Franks.

“The risk arising from this election result is that the MPs from Quebec become irrelevant,” he said. “It’s possible that the NDP representatives were elected as a protest vote and it’s clear that some of them don’t reflect the communities they’re supposed to represent.

“If we have a separatist government in Quebec and a government with a tin ear to Quebec in Ottawa, it doesn’t bode well,” Franks said.

During the election campaign, NDP Leader Jack Layton talked of creating “winning conditions” for Quebec, including requiring Supreme Court judges to be bilingual and allowing federal French-speaking public servants to work in their native tongue. But it was Layton’s vague comments concerning his desire to engage Quebec in discussions aimed at getting the province to sign the 1982 Constitution that alarm Franks.

“It’s a frightening prospect,” Franks said. Layton “is a prisoner to his own words and that is not a good place to be on that issue. I’m hoping they don’t come back to haunt him.”

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said the issue of Quebec signing the Constitution is not a priority for Canadians, given the rocky economic recovery Canada is experiencing.

Newly elected NDP MP Laurin Liu, 20, who represents the riding of Rivière-des-Mille-Îles, hesitates to characterize the election of so many of her fellow party members as a protest vote.

“When Quebecers voted for the NDP, they voted in favour of something, rather than against something,” she said. “I think what they voted in favour of was a real progressive voice on the federal level. A progressive voice that represents largely what Quebecers value.”

Christian Rouillard, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, argues that concerns of a Quebec separatist uprising are overblown. He notes that while the Conservatives were set back in Quebec, they have not in any way indicated they will ignore the province.

“Back in 1993, when Jean Chrétien was elected prime minister, we heard the same story because he favoured a strong federalist government,” Rouillard said. “Harper is aware of the situation and he no doubt has a significant challenge in front of him. He will have to meet the expectations of his electoral base, but I don’t think he would be so negligent as to completely ignore Quebec politics.”

Polls put the support for Quebec independence somewhere between 30 and 40 per cent, but the University of Montreal’s Martin notes there is a group of voters he calls the “soft centre” — sovereignists and federalists each willing to give the other a chance depending on the issue and mood.

“Those two groups have high expectations thanks to the NDP, and they’re likely to be disappointed,” he said. “Nothing is impossible if things start to go awry.”

With files from The Canadian Press and the Star’s Lorianna De Giorgio.

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