Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens: Defensive Slugfests Have Favored the Home Team

Make no mistake about today’s Houston-Baltimore game, if you have a pre-conceived notion about the Texans because they are from humid Houston and don’t have a lengthy history of defensive football–this is going to be a defensive slugfest. Both of these teams can claim excellent pass defenses, while the pass offenses are more middling. The loss of Schaub has dropped the Texans passing offense a lot, while the Ravens and Joe Flacco have been inconsistent, looking like world beaters some games, and incompetent in others.

This is the last of four features on the divisional matchups, where I look at similar postseason games in the Divisional Round since 1990, by looking at the underlying rate stats, power ranking, and record of the home and road teams. The full methodology is in the first post about the Saints-49ers matchup, and Denver-New England and NY Giants-Green Bay have also been profiled.

This matchup has more “similar” games than all the others combined. These teams have 12 wins and 10 wins, respectfully, so they are a lot like a host of other playoff teams. They are built around top passing defenses, good rushing games on offense, and decent but not spectacular passing games. Given how close the two teams are (Baltimore’s Simple Rating System rating is only 1.6 points better than Houston for the year), I would have expected the playoff results to be closer. As it turns out, the home team has fared pretty well in these bouts.

Five of the six most similar games involved a Pittsburgh Steelers team between 1994 and 2001. The one that different featured Bill Parcells’ Giants against Ditka’s Bears. The early ’00’s Eagles teams also show up three times on the list. Despite these often being matchups that appeared to be close heading in, the home team won 8 out of the 10 games, by an average margin of 11.5 points.

Weighting the results by giving the most similar more weight, the average result is 22.3 points for the Baltimore comps and only 8.5 points for the Houston comps. The real play here might be the Under. It is at a low 36.5, but the average total in the similar matchups has been only 32.9 points, with the losing team scoring 13 or fewer points in 9 of the 10 matchups.

Comments

I see many already predicting Bal/Pats. Texans pulling the upset. Delhomme comes in late and pulls an Alex Smith.

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

Now I’m nervous. I need Baltimore to win by 7 or less, OR GB to win by 14 or less OR some combination of 24 points or less, to advance to the Pick’em finals.

/let’s go Houston

http://twitter.com/#!/claytoncargill Gaseous Clay

I’m rooting for the ravens to win it all, but also to play San Francisco in the Super Bowl, and hang a super bowl loss on that organization.

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

Delhomme comes in late and pulls an Alex Smith.

Would be funny to see the QB that got John Fox (admittedly a pretty good coach) fired, go further in the playoffs than he did.

One question… Spencer called it a bootleg. When I saw it, it looked more like a straight QB run (almost like a wishbone without the wing). Doesn’t the body have to get turned (body facing to pass) for it to be a bootleg? That’s what makes it a ‘bootleg’

http://twitter.com/#!/claytoncargill Gaseous Clay

And I don’t like the chances of blockers being able to slide to the second level, if they have to slide off of Ngata and Cody. I also expect a three INT performance from Yates, because Houston will be in catch up mode, likely because of the first INT.

http://twitter.com/#!/claytoncargill Gaseous Clay

WWoS, a bootleg run is a thing. The bootleg describes the action of the QB versus the action of the rest of the offense, not what he actually does with the ball.

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

The bootleg describes the action of the QB versus the action of the rest of the offense, not what he actually does with the ball.

Fair enough. I didn’t think it could be a bootleg unless he made some effort to hide the ball, and not just tuck and run, but I haven’t seen many replays, anyway.

Looks like my best hope is to pray Eli doesn’t suck.

knitty

Huge play on the Ravens today, they should be able to win going away unless Delhomme comes in, all bets are off.

Vic Colfari

All home teams have never won in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. So, odds are one of the games today will be won by the road team. The public is already heavy on the Giants +the points and they’re on the Ravens -the points. Which means Vegas wants the Packers and Texans to win. What Vegas wants, Vegas gets. See, for instance, the 49ers yesterday. Something like 80% of the action on that game was on the Saints and Vegas didn’t move that line at all until the very end, and only a 1/2 point at that. Food for thought.

knitty

All home teams have never won in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. So, odds are one of the games today will be won by the road team. The public is already heavy on the Giants +the points and they’re on the Ravens -the points. Which means Vegas wants the Packers and Texans to win. What Vegas wants, Vegas gets. See, for instance, the 49ers yesterday. Something like 80% of the action on that game was on the Saints and Vegas didn’t move that line at all until the very end, and only a 1/2 point at that. Food for thought.

I’m looking at covers.com and both road teams are the consensus. Not sure where you are getting your info, but covers is always a pretty good indication of the public thought.

http://twitter.com/#!/claytoncargill Gaseous Clay

Again, it has absolutely nothing to do with what the quarterback does after he makes the bootleg action. look it up in a football glossary, or on Wikipedia. “Bootleg” is 100 percent about the action of going opposite the play direction. the QB can run, pass, be accompanied that way by a lineman or receiver.

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

after he makes the bootleg action. look it up in a football glossary, or on Wikipedia.

The name comes from the fact that on a play action the quarterback often hides the ball from the defense by his thigh to make the run look more convincing. This is similar to the way bootleggers would hide whiskey in their trousers during Prohibition.

“Bootleg” is 100 percent about the action of going opposite the play direction.

See this is the part I wasn’t sure of. Should probably have found a replay before I said anything.

Vic Colfari

I’m looking at covers.com and both road teams are the consensus. Not sure where you are getting your info, but covers is always a pretty good indication of the public thought.

I don’t use covers.com, so didn’t see where it had the % for the betting public. Where is that? I got % from sports.com. And, yes, the Giants are the public play which is what I was saying. From what I saw on sports.com, the public was on the Ravens though.

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

I just looked at the video, the whole play goes to the left, and he never hides the ball. Just looks like the direct snap to the running back play, really.

knitty

http://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/nfl_main.aspx

I would trust these numbers over your website only because I’ve never heard of it and all of my gambling friends use covers. Over 4000 submissions so you get a good idea…

Jason Lisk

I just looked at the video, the whole play goes to the left, and he never hides the ball. Just looks like the direct snap to the running back play, really.

The play design is like a sweep, but with the quarterback, rather than a handoff to the tailback. They just relied on getting the Saints thinking pass coverage out of the shotgun, then immediately pulled into the sweep, and outnumbered the Saints

Vic Colfari

I would trust these numbers over your website only because I’ve never heard of it and all of my gambling friends use covers. Over 4000 submissions so you get a good idea…

Thanks. I found that “consensus” tab and see where it lists %. Big difference between the sites on that Ravens game. Covers had it listed as 61% on the Texans. Which throws a wrench in playing the Texans today.

http://hordman.blogspot.com/ Caribou

I’m looking at covers.com and both road teams are the consensus. Not sure where you are getting your info, but covers is always a pretty good indication of the public thought.

Check out PreGame.com, they give you Who’s betting on who, ML, Spread, Exotics. It does have the public on BAL & NYG for the Spread

http://twitter.com/widewordofsport WWoS Stayed At a Holiday Inn Express Last Night

The play design is like a sweep, but with the quarterback

That’s the one. That’s why you get paid the big bucks, Lisk. Was a beautiful play call.