If ABC were to go into Sunday’s Emmy ceremony confident that Modern Family was about to add its third comedy series statuette to the network’s trophy case, no one would be the slightest bit surprised. The odds are so in favor of a threepeat for the feel-good, laugh-hard smash that it’s almost no contest. So just imagine how shocked everybody would be if HBO’s Girls — arguably the most talked-about show of the season — managed to parlay all of its buzz into gold. Could the breakout hit, with its sheen of indie cool, really defeat the returning champ, in many ways the poster show for mainstream success?

While you draw your own conclusions, here’s our assessment of those series’ — and all the nominees’ — chances, followed by our final, fearless prediction: