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VOTER 2004: WHOSE SIDE IS GOD ON?

As President George W. Bush gears up for the 2004 election, he
wants God on his side, or at least the God-fearing. Bush, himself a
born-again Christian, has taken firm stands on social issues
considered critical to religious conservatives. In late October, he
supported his younger brother Jeb Bush, the governor of Florida,
who signed a directive for doctors to resume life support for a
comatose woman. Days later, he signed a bill banning late-term
abortions. And later in the month, after the Massachusetts Supreme
Court upheld the decision on same-sex marriages, Bush reportedly
considered backing a constitutional amendment banning such
unions.

Bush made headlines, but he may not win over a significant
number of political converts. Still, in a race that's expected to
be won or lost by a narrow margin, Bush needs only to recruit
enough voters to tip the scales in favor of the Republicans. In a
nationally representative survey of 1,202 adults conducted
exclusively for American Demographics by Zogby International
in mid-November, a majority of Americans (56 percent) say their
religious beliefs play some role in how they vote and 61 percent
say religion should influence public policy. So, if Bush and the
GOP can draw Christian conservative voters to the polling booths,
they may be able to retain control of the White House and
Congress.

John Zogby, president of the Utica, N.Y., polling firm, says
religion will play a more prominent role in this year's
presidential campaign than it did in 2000. During that race, Bush
emphasized his religious beliefs, saying that Jesus Christ was his
favorite philosopher and promoting so-called faith-based
initiatives. However, the religious right weren't well organized as
a voting bloc. â€œThis time around, the president has openly
consolidated his core supporters with the Christian right,â€?
Zogby says. â€œEssentially, we have a president running from
the right and a Democrat running from the left. It'll be the
Christian right versus the non-Christian right.â€?

Zogby says the survey shows that Americans are becoming
increasingly divided on core values and more politically partisan.
Although 23 percent of the respondents say their religious beliefs
â€œvery muchâ€? determine political choices, 42 percent say
they do â€œnot at all.â€? And 33 percent say their
religious beliefs â€œsomewhatâ€? determine their political
choices. Asked when Americans last seemed so polarized, Zogby says,
with a note of hyperbole, during the Civil War, adding that a more
apt, and recent example would be the Kennedy and Nixon campaign in
1960. â€œThis is a 50-50 nation and one of the things that
separates us is spirituality,â€? he says. â€œThe role of
religion is quite large in Americans' lives and in their political
lives.â€?

Without question, more timely issues will dominate the 2004
election: the economy, the war in Iraq, terrorism, health care and
education. But many Christian fundamentalists and political
conservatives say a candidate's stance on religious issues will
determine how they vote. That's what happened in the 2002 mid-term
election. Although national security was touted as the most
important issue, following 9/11, Christian leaders said religious
concerns drove their members to the polls in key races. Rev. Jerry
Falwell even credited Bush's courting of the religious right for
the GOP victory: â€œNo one in the world would deny that the
religious conservatives certainly played a major role in regaining
Republican control of the Senate.â€?

Zogby's survey reveals that Americans think the wall separating
church and state should be porous: 20 percent think that religion
should â€œvery muchâ€? play a role in public policy. And 41
percent think that it should â€œsomewhatâ€? play a role.
Taken together, 61 percent believe religion should play some role.
In contrast, 36 percent say it should â€œnot at allâ€? play
a role in public policy.

While Americans may differ dramatically over the role religion
should play in matters of the state, most consider themselves
pious. Nearly 2 in 3 (63 percent) say that their religion is
â€œvery importantâ€? in their daily lives. A little more
than 1 in 4 (27 percent) says that their beliefs are at least
â€œsomewhat important.â€? As a result, 90 percent of
Americans say religion plays a significant role in their everyday
lives. Only 10 percent say that religion is â€œnot at all
important.â€?

Religious beliefs don't weigh statistically more heavily in
favor of either Democrats or Republicans. Sixty-four percent of
those who consider themselves Democrats say that religion is
â€œvery importantâ€? in their daily lives, while 10 percent
say it is â€œnot at allâ€? important. By comparison, 70
percent of Republicans say it is very important and 7 percent say
it is not at all important. Taking into account that there are more
Democrats, the margin of difference is negligible. â€œReligion
doesn't give one side the edge over the other,â€? Zogby
says.

Clashing views on religion's place in politics are most
pronounced among differing age segments, ethnic groups, political
affiliations and religious organizations. It follows logic that
almost 1 in 4 (23 percent) of those who say that religion is
â€œnot importantâ€? in their everyday lives also
characterizes their own ideology as â€œprogressive/very
liberal.â€? However, 16 percent of single adults and adults who
have household incomes of $75,000 or higher, also say it's not
important. And 14 percent of college graduates, liberals, city
dwellers, suburbanites and those who live in the West think that
religion is not important. Men are twice as likely as women to say
it's not important (13 percent versus 6 percent).

In contrast, 85 percent of African Americans, 88 percent of
born-again Christians and 94 percent of those who describe their
political ideology as â€œvery conservativeâ€? say that
religion is â€œvery important.â€? Between 70 percent and 75
percent of Hispanics, Southerners, people over the age of 65,
conservatives, high school graduates, divorced adults, widows,
separated adults, women and people with annual incomes less than
$35,000 say religion is very important in their lives.

Forty-two percent of born-again Christians, 37 percent of
African Americans and 70 percent of political conservatives say
that their religious beliefs â€œvery muchâ€? determine
their political choices. About one-third of Republicans,
Southerners, conservatives and people with household incomes
between $25,000 and $34,999 agree.

Respondents with less education and lower household incomes are
more likely to say that religion should â€œvery muchâ€?
play a role in public policy. Of those who, at the most, have a
high school diploma, 62 percent think that religion should very
much play a role in public policy. In contrast, of those with at
least a college education, 50 percent think religion should
â€œnot at allâ€? play a role.

Public debate over same-sex marriage dominated headlines in late
2003, yet respondents didn't put it at the top of their list of
issues. Eighty-one percent thought abortion was â€œvery
importantâ€? or â€œsomewhat important;â€? 80 percent
considered school vouchers important; 71 percent thought euthanasia
was important and 66 percent thought same-sex marriage was
important. That was just slightly ahead of cloning, which 64
percent believed important.

Of course, it makes sense that about 90 percent of those who say
religion plays a very important role in their lives would also
think that abortion is a very important issue. In addition, almost
9 in 10 Republicans, 18- to 29-year-olds, singles, Hispanics,
parents with children under 17, rural residents, born-again
Christians, women and people with household incomes between $15,000
and $34,999 agree.

About 20 percent to 25 percent of 50- to 64-year-olds, adults
who have less than a high school education, men and adults who have
household incomes less than $15,000 or greater than $75,000, think
that abortion is â€œnot at all importantâ€? in how they
vote. Just 30 percent of those who say religion is not important in
their lives also say abortion is â€œnot at all
important.â€?

As Zogby says: â€œWe will see the politics of culture clash,
the politics of hate and intense partisanship.â€?