Richard Jefferson has certainly had an odd go of it with the Spurs. When he was traded to San Antonio by Milwaukee last summer, it was thought to be one of the off-season’s greatest moves, and combined with the Spurs’ other acquisitions, was supposed to thrust San Antonio back into contention. It didn’t quite work out that way. Jefferson was a flub in his first season as a Spur; he was unable to hit the corner three consistently, didn’t really create offense on the drive, and wasn’t even a plus defender.

So naturally, he opted out of his $15.2 million salary for next season…because he was so likely to earn that back by signing a new deal. Player value this summer definitely seems to be inflated, but even with those standards in mind it’s tough to say if Jefferson would even be worth the full mid-level.

Well, Spurs fans, after enduring a year of Jefferson’s misfitting skills, are likely about to find out what he’s worth. According to Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News, the odds of RJ coming back to play for the Spurs next season are at 95%. It seemed that Jefferson’s opt-out was motivated by an intent to sign a long-term deal before the inevitable lockout/new CBA, but it’s unknown how long or valuable a new deal with the Spurs would be. He’d likely need a three year deal for something close to the mid-level to equal the $15.2 million he left behind, but at this stage is Jefferson really worth that much of an investment?

I don’t remember playing tonight. I didn’t play. Guys get a lot of money to be ready to play. No Knute Rockne speeches. It’s your job. If you’re a plumber and you don’t do your job, you don’t get any work. I don’t think a plumber needs a pep talk. If a doctor botches operations, he’s not a doctor anymore. If you’re a basketball player, you come ready. It’s called maturity. It’s your job.

Like it or not, motivation is part of an NBA coach’s job.

But that’s also precisely what Popovich is doing.

His credentials dwarf any other coach’s. He can play to his own ego and absolve himself of responsibility – and players will seek to please him. His years of success have earned him the ability to motivate this way, a method no other coach could use without alienating his team.

So, why not hold Motiejunas to what became a four-year, $31 million offer sheet once matched? Houston got something in return – a later trigger date on guaranteeing Motiejunas’ 2017-18 salary. Originally, that decision had to be made March 1 – which would’ve meant dropping Motiejunas from the team this season to prevent his salary from counting next season. Now, the Rockets can make that call in July, after this season is complete.

The following two Julys, Houston will also have a choice on guaranteeing Motiejunas’ upcoming salary or dropping him.

Essentially, Motiejunas is signing the most lucrative Hinkie Special in NBA history. If he plays well and stays healthy, the Rockets have Motiejunas at an affordable rate. If he struggles or his back injuries flare up, they can drop him with little to no penalty.

After they backed themselves into this corner, Motiejunas and his agent, B.J. Armstrong, didn’t do so bad. Considering the similarity between this contract and the Nets’ original offer sheet, it seems Houston helped Armstrong save face after a bungled free agency (which is easier to accept when you’re adding a talented reserve to a formidable team).

But for how little is guaranteed and how much control the Rockets hold over the next four years, wouldn’t Motiejunas have been better off accepting the $4,433,683 qualifying offer?

This means Motiejunas can’t sign with the Nets, who signed him to the original offer sheet, for one year.

I bet it also means Motiejunas and Houston have agreed to a new contract. Otherwise, why release him from the offer sheet? The Rockets would be giving up a tremendous amount of leverage out of the goodness of their hearts – unless this is just a prelude to a new deal with Houston.