San Antonio Moves from Possible Contender to a Likely Early Vacation

The San Antonio Spurs won the NBA title in 2003, 2005, and 2007. Such a pattern suggests the Spurs are destined to win the title in 2009. Currently, though, the team has 3.81 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). And a quick review of the top 15 teams in efficiency differential in 2008-09 (as of April 6) suggests the Spurs are not one of the best teams in the NBA this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 9.52

Boston Celtics: 8.70

Orlando Magic: 7.89

Los Angeles Lakers: 7.63

Portland Trail Blazers: 5.00

Houston Rockets: 3.98

Denver Nuggets: 3.85

San Antonio Spurs: 3.81

Utah Jazz: 3.41

New Orleans Hornets: 2.20

Phoenix Suns: 1.90

Dallas Mavericks: 1.67

Atlanta Hawks: 1.62

Philadelphia 76ers: 0.58

Miami Heat: 0.18

As we near the conclusion of the season, the top teams are the same quartet we have followed most of the year: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and the Lakers. Given where these four teams stand, it appears – at least from these numbers — the Spurs title hopes in 2009 are unlikely to be realized.

As Table One indicates the Spurs this season are led in Wins Produced by Tim Duncan. Duncan’s 15.1 Wins Produced is nearly equal to the next two names on the list, Tony Parker and Ginobili. Ginobili, though, nearly has the same WP48 as Duncan. So if Ginobili had not been hurt much of the year, his Wins Produced would have rivaled what we see from Duncan.

The Spurs With and Without Ginobili

And if Ginobili was as productive as Duncan, our quartet of contenders would almost be a quintet. To see this point, let’s play with some more numbers.

Thus far this season Roger Mason has played 2,301 minute while Ginobili minutes have been limited to 1,181. If Ginobili been healthy the entire season one might expect the minutes of these two players to be reversed. Assuming each player would have maintained his WP48, switching each player’s minutes would result in the following:

Ginobili’s Wins Produced rises from 7.6 to 14.8

Mason’s Wins Produced falls from 2.6 to 1.4.

So the team gains about 6.0 additional Wins Produced, or sees it current total rises from 46.8 to 52.8.

52.8 wins after 76 games works out to 56.9 Wins Produced when the season is complete.

Such a mark is consistent with a team with an efficiency differential in excess of 6.00. In other words, had Ginobili played the entire season the Spurs would have been close to the current title contenders.

Of course, Ginobili has not been there the entire season. And now he is not going to play anymore. To see how much this impacts the Spurs, let’s replay our game of “what-if” and see what this team looks like without Ginobili for the entire season.

Ginobili’s Wins Produced obviously falls from 7.6 to 0.0.

Mason probably can’t take all of Ginobili’s minutes, but the other options at guard are similar in productivity to Mason. So for simplicity let’s pretend Mason can take all these minutes. If that could happen, Mason would see his Wins Produced rise from 2.6 to 4.0.

The team, therefore, loses 6.2 Wins Produced after 76 games. This works out to a mark of 40.6 after 76 games, or 43.8 Wins Produced at the end of the season.

Such a mark is consistent with a team with an efficiency differential around 1.00. In other words, if Ginobili misses the entire season, the Spurs probably miss the entire playoffs.

This exercise tells us that Ginobili is tremendously important to the Spurs. With him the team can come close to contending with the NBA’s best. Losing him in April means this team is likely to lose in the first round.

Although this is bad news for the Spurs, it is good news for the other playoffs teams in the West (especially the Lakers). As I noted last January, the Spurs have been led in Wins Produced for the past five years by Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker (and as noted above, this is true this year). To this trio, San Antonio has received above average performances this year from Matt Bonner (really) and Kurt Thomas. And now the team has added Drew Gooden. Such a collection of productive players should have concerned any opening round opponent. But without Ginobili, I think this team’s first round match-up is going to sleep just a little bit easier. And the likelihood we see the Lakers in the Finals again has increased (which will make people who dislike the Lakers as unhappy as fans of the Spurs).

Check: Bowen was playing good defense a couple years ago. Nowadays? If he was a steak there would be no pink in the middle. He’s done. All he has left is the corner three.

This article brings up a question I have about the link between WP and efficiency differential. For example, Portland has the #1 offense but their defense is atrocious. If they were several points better at defense they would be scary. What would this transition look like in WP? Slightly more rebounds? Or what about last year. How could one predict Boston would have the best defense? Or that Cleveland’s offense would go from horrible to amazing? Or does that not matter and it’s just the global ED that really matters?

I’m guessing there’s a formula for getting ED out of a group of player’s WPs.

Having watched the Spurs this year I think it’s apparent that Popovich recognizes Bowen is at the end of his career. He’s been grooming Udoka to assume the role. This is really why Pop & the Spurs are models as coach/franchise. Managing the egos, business, and complacency that other organizations get bogged down in. (unfortunately you can’t plan for injury)

On another note. Is there a table of wins produced for teams at home vs. road games? It would probably shed light on how much home field will/should matter in playoff matchups.

i dont think it matters whether they have a 100% manu or not i cant see them getting past a healthy utah jazz AND a healthy lakers…even if they got a good seeding and missed the jazz and then faced the lakers, they would have their hands full just as they did last year. and we all know how that ended up. manu is a superstar, but the lakers are loaded and the bench for the spurs arent ready for prime time

[...] San Antonio Moves from Possible Contender to a Likely Early Vacation The San Antonio Spurs won the NBA title in 2003, 2005, and 2007.A Such a pattern suggests the Spurs are destined to win the title in 2009.A Currently, though, the team has 3.81 efficiency differential .A And a quick review of the top 15 teams in efficiency differential in 2008-09 suggests the Spurs are not one of the best teams in the NBA this … [...]

[...] towards the end of the season. So San Antonio’s efficiency differential is misleading. Without Ginobili I am not sure San Antonio would have made the playoffs. Furthermore, when we look at Dallas we see a team that underachieved. More specifically, Dirk [...]