Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database on 9/2/2010 and represent home sales between 1/1/2005 and 8/30/2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

I have good news and bad news to report about the Pelican Point real estate market. First the bad news… there are more homes on the market than the demand for them. The chart below shows that, overall, there is nearly a 12 month supply of existing homes based upon current absorption rates. For homes priced over $350K there is nearly a 2 year supply.

The next chart gives some cause for optimism. The rate of absorption for existing homes in 2010 shows some improvement over 2009. The absorption rate for new homes, however, is well below the peak of about 5 homes per month being sold in 2005 to about 1 every other month in 2010.

Another bit of good news is that existing homes appear to be holding values fairly well despite the imbalance in supply vs. demand. In 2010, home pricing (in terms of selling price per square foot of living area) has rebounded and, at $122.03/sq.ft., is well above what it was in the previous two years but has not yet recovered to the 2006 level.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

There was a sharp drop in the number of closings (unit sales) in Ascension parish during July as the following chart illustrates. During June there were a total of 142 detached single family homes transferred while in July only 63 DSF homes transferred. This is a drop of more than 55%! Clearly a significant number of closings during the first half of 2010 were attributable to the Home Buyer Tax Credit.

The next chart looks at new contracts negotiated for DSF homes during 2010. We can see that there was significant growth in the number of new contracts negotiated leading up to the April 30 deadline. Following that there was a significant drop in new contracts. While, as previously stated, there was a drop in the number of closings during July there was also a modest increase in the number of new contracts negotiated… from 85 in June to 96 in July, about a 13% increase. Improving but still a far cry from the 173 contracts negotiated in April.

The stacked bars represent the number of contracts for each status code recorded as of 8/10 when the data were extracted. Contracts with a status of Withdrawn or Active represent contracts which have fallen through since originally written. Thankfully, that number is rather small. Pending and contingent contracts have not yet closed and, hopefully, represent future sales.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted. The data collected were for detached single family homes in Ascension parish which went under contract between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010.

In order to qualify for the $8,000 or $6,500 homebuyer tax credit, a homebuyer had to have an accepted contract in place on or before April 30, 2010. I wanted to quantify the impact of the expiration of that tax credit upon the real estate market in Ascension Parish. The expiration of the tax credit has, indeed, had a cooling effect on the market. Overall, there has been a drop of 36% in the average weekly number of accepted contracts since the expiration of the tax credit. The following chart illustrates that effect.

I separately calculated the effect for new construction and for re-sale homes. It appears that new construction benefited most from the tax credit. Since its expiration, the average number of new contracts per week dropped from 14.7/wk to 7.0 per week, a drop of 52%. For homes in the re-sale market segment, that drop was from 16.4/week to 13.0/wk or 21%.

The next chart plots the same data but shows the mix of new construction contracts vs. re-sale contracts as a percent of the total for a given week.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database and represent sales of detached single family homes from January 2005 through April 2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

Unit sales in the parish were down a bit in April from unit sales in March. Both new construction and re-sale market segments were down. On the other hand, unit sales in April 2010 was higher in both segments than in April of 2009.

New construction unit sales in the period from January through April 2010 was higher than the same periods during 2008 and 2009. The re-sale segment for the January through April 2010 was higher than in 2009 but lower than in the years 2005 through 2008.

Overall $ sales volume was up. While volumes in 2006 and 2007 were higher, 2010 volumes were higher than in 2005, 2008 and 2009.

The average sales price of new construction continued to fall in the parish but the average sales price of previously owned homes during the first four months of the year was substantially higher than in any of the previous five years.

The average selling price per square foot of living area for new homes declined slightly as the trend toward smaller homes with fewer amenities continued. The price per square foot of living area for homes in the re-sale market segment increased slightly.

The last chart shows the history of $/sq.ft. between January 2005 and April 2010. One can see that in April 2010 there was virtually no difference between the new construction and re-sale segments. The last time that occured was in November of 2005 after which the selling price per square foot of living area for new construction rose substantially. It remains to be seen whether this event in April is significant.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report - First Quarter 2010

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

The average selling price in Pelican Point in the re-sale market segment saw a substantial increase during the first quarter of 2010. Only a single newly built home sold during the first quarter so no conclusions can be drawn vis a vis any trend in the new construction market segment.

The following chart shows the distribution of the selling price per square foot of living area since January of 2004. There has, perhaps, been a minor decline after it peaked in the years immediately following hurricane Katrina but has more or less been holding steady.

New construction sales have fallen way off. As indicated earlier, a single newly constructed home has sold so far in 2010. The resale market segment, however, has shown tremendous growth as the next chart indicates.

The next chart illustrates that, for the first quarter of 2010, the absorption rate for previously owned homes in Pelican Point has rebounded to a level not seen since hurricane Katrina.

That’s the good news… The bad news is that there are still more homes for sale than can be absorbed even at the higher absorption rates. More than a third of existing inventory is in the over $400K price range. At an absorption rate of only 0.7 homes per month, there is a sixteen and a half month supply placing this price range clearly in the Buyer’s Market category.

The next chart shows the average selling price per square foot of living area for previously owned homes separated by the street. As 2010 wears on, these numbers will become more meaningful. A total of eleven homes sold during the first quarter which is insufficient to draw any street level conclusions for 2010 at this time.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report 2010Q1

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted and represent detached single family home sales.

Unit of detached single family homes in Ascension parish were up about 24% in March of 2010 when compared to sales in March of 2009. Both the new construction and the re-sale market segments showed growth.

First quarter sales, likewise, show growth in 2010 when compared with 2009. In the re-sale market segment first quarter unit sales in 2010 are similar to those of 2007 and 2008.

The average selling price per square foot of living area is down marginally in both market segments for 2010 as the next chart demonstrates.

The following chart indicates that the decline may have bottomed out. In fact, there are some indications of improvement but it is too early to say for sure. We’ll continue to monitor this closely.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

As 2009 comes to a close the real estate market in Ascension Parish is continuing to resist the gloom haunting other markets in the country and is, in fact, showing signs of growth. The following chart shows monthly unit sales for the past several years. For September 2009, sales of previously owned homes exceeded sales in that market segment in both July and August of this year and approached sales in June 2009 which was the highest so far this year. While new construction unit sales didn’t perform as well as the previously owned market segment for September 2009, it significantly outperformed new construction sales in September 2008. This is not surprising since both the new and re-sale market segments were hard hit by the devastation caused by hurricane Gustav last year. That said, new construction unit sales last month outperformed all other months in 2008 except for the month of July.

Using the average absorption rates observed so far this year, unit sales of the new construction market segment is projected to exceed 2008 levels. Unit sales for the re-sale market segment is projected to be only slightly less than that of 2008. Clearly, while less robust than the boom post-Katrina times, the real estate market in Ascension parish is showing remarkable signs of health despite the current difficulties we face in acquiring credit.

The next two charts show historical trends of average selling price and average selling price per square foot for both market segments.

We can see that in the resale market segment, neither the average price nor the average price per sq.ft. have changed substantially from 2008 levels. This indicates that the equity in our residential real estate investment has weathered the economic downturn quite well. In the new construction segment, however, we see a downward shift toward more affordable housing… a trend previously reported on toward smaller homes with fewer upgrades and amenities.

The next two charts show the absorption rates and inventory levels for the two market segments. In the new construction segment, there is only a 3.3 month supply of new homes overall. This is a Seller’s Market. A Buyer’s Market condition exists only for homes priced over $400K. The highest velocity of home sales exists in the $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 65% of all new homes sold this year.

The previously owned market segment shows the highest velocity of sales in the same $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 51% of home sales. In fact, home sales under $250K accounted for 73% of all homes sold. Overall, it is a neutral market with 6.4 months supply but there is a great variation in this figure as we look at various price ranges. Previously owned homes over $400K have sold at a rate of 1.6 homes per month. With 60 homes on the market, at this rate it will take more than three years so sell off this inventory. At the other end of the spectrum, homes priced under $250K are enjoying robust sales and it is a Seller’s Market in these price ranges.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

2009 Mid-year Report

This mid-year report is the result of my analysis of data retrieved from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS
database. Only data relating to detached single family (DSF) homes were included. As I have done in the past, a distinction was
made between new construction and previously owned (re-sale) homes.

Unit sales have continued to improved as indicated by the next chart. Sales of new construction are projected in 2009 to exceed sales
of new construction in 2008. While recent improvements have been observed, home sales in the re-sale market segment are lagging
behind those in 2008 but have rebounded to pre-Katrina levels.

The following chart tracks unit sales of new construction by month and year. One can see that new construction sales in 2009 have
exceeded those in 2008 for every month so far this year.

While off to a slow start, previously owned home sales during June of this year exceeded those of June in 2008 and for every month
except May exceeded the corresponding month in 2004.

Through June, we can see in the following chart that the average price of previously owned homes sold in the parish have not declined.
The average price of a new home sold, however, has seen a substantial drop.

The explanation for this drop in the average price of a new home sold is made clear in the following chart which shows new construction
sales by subdivision. Only the top 12 subdivision are shown but these twelve account for nearly 60% of home sales.
It is evident that most new home sales were in subdivisions where homes with a limited number of floor plans and a generally lower
standard of amenities than we have seen in years past are built.

We have been selling through the inventory of new construction in the parish. The following chart shows that, overall, there is only
a 3.8 month supply of new homes… a seller’s market overall. Looking at absorption data by price range we can see that a seller’s
market condition (less than 5.5 month supply) exists for all price ranges up to $400K. The absorption rate and inventory levels of homes selling for
$400K and up, on the other hand, result in a serious buyer’s market with more than a 20-month supply.

In the re-sale market segment there is, overall, a 6.4 month supply… a neutral market. Drilling down through the data, we can see
that a seller’s market condition exists for homes selling up to $200K. Over $200K, a buyer’s market condition exists and for
previously owned homes selling for more than $400K there are more than 3 years worth of inventory at current the current absorption rate.

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Comments and suggestions are encouraged. Readers wishing to have a more in-depth discussion welcome to contact me directly.

Ascension Parish Residential Real Estate Market Analysis - May 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database.
For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through
May 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The real estate news in Ascension parish is mixed but, in my opinion, generally good news. As the following chart illustrates, seasonality
is taking effect as we move toward the historically favorable summer selling months. Unit sales of previously owned homes, although
lower than last year are at levels similar to pre-Katrina levels.

Average home prices have declined as the next chart illustrates. With respect to new home prices, the drop is due primarily to a shift in what
is being purchased rather than a drop in value. More affordable homes are being purchased. The most successful subdivisions are those
which offer a limited number of floor plans with a lower standard of amenities than was the trend a just a few years back.

the average price of a previously owned home has receded somewhat but only about 2-4%.

Although lower than the years immediately before and after Katrina, unit sales of new homes is improving. In fact, every month in 2009
saw more new homes sold than in every corresponding month of 2008.

The next chart illustrates the price point of new homes sold during 2009. We can see a dense cluster of homes sold between about $160K and $215K which were
priced at or below $110/sq.ft. of living area. A significant number of homes were also sold at higher prices and price points but the drop
in average price and average price per square foot illustrates the trend toward more affordable homes.

The really good news in the new home market is that inventories are being sold out. We previously reported that at the end of 2008 there was
an 8.2 month supply of new homes in the parish. As the following chart illustrates, that has dropped to 4.2 months as of the end of May.
It is a seller’s market condition in most price ranges. The only area of deep concern is for homes priced at $400K and up where there is
a 20 month supply. While there are five fewer homes in inventory today (20) than there were at the end of 2008, the rate of sales for
these homes has dropped significantly from 2.3 homes per month in 2008 to only 1 per month on average during 2009.

The re-sale (previously owned homes) market statistics are similar to what was observed at the end of 2008. At that time we reported 385 homes
available representing a 6.1 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2008. As of the end of May, we have 361 homes available representing
a 6.5 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2009. Fewer homes per month are being sold but, as we saw earlier, we are just entering
the peak selling season.

There is an oversupply situation with respect to the higher priced homes. In fact, at current absorption rates there is more than a four year
supply of homes priced at $400K and above.

Readers are encouraged to comment with questions or suggestions for improvement. Anyone interested in exploring the possibility of buying or selling
property is welcomed to call or e-mail1312 me.