AlwaysFree: EIA Projects US To Be Net Crude Oil Exporter Under Certain Conditions

Author: SSESSMENTS

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) projects the US to be a net crude oil exporter by 2050, under certain conditions. The country was a net exporter of petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products; distillate fuel, motor gasoline, jet fuel, etc.). It exported 772,000 bpd more petroleum than it imported that month.

In the AEO2020 Reference case, EIA predicts that the US will remain a net crude oil importer by 2050 despite increasing domestic production in the coming years. The reference case assumes that the current laws and regulations will remain in place. Under this scenario, US oil output is expected to reach a peak of 14 million bpd in the mid-2020s and then gradually decline through the mid-2040s.

In the AEO2020 High Oil and Gas Supply case, the US is forecast to be a net crude exporter beginning in 2025 through 2050. The High Oil and Gas Supply case assumes that the US has more domestic crude oil resources. Under such a scenario, US oil output is expected to increase from 12 million bpd last year to 18 million bpd in 2026 and stay above that level until 2050.

In the AEO2020 High Oil Price case, which includes assumptions of a relatively fast production growth but limited technological improvements, the US is expected to start to be a net crude oil exporter in 2023 but become a net crude oil importer again in 2027. In this scenario, US oil output is expected to spike to 19 million bpd by as early as 2025 but then gradually decrease over the projection period.