Just The Sports

Sunday, March 06, 2011

Philadelphia Eagles QB Michael Vick Faces Impossible Task Next Season

In electing to use the franchise tag on Michael Vick rather than sign him to a long-term contract, the Philadelphia Eagles threw down a very expensive gauntlet. Basically, the Eagles were challenging Vick to prove that his impressive quarterbacking last season was not a one-time fluke and was actually an accurate representation of his ability level now.

To complete the task the Eagles gave him, Vick will have to replicate a season unlike any other he has ever had in his NFL career, making the completion all the more difficult.

During last season in his 12 games as Philadelphia Eagles primary quarterback, games in which Vick either attempted the most passes or threw for the most passing yards for the Eagles, he completed 61.8 percent of his passes, gained 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 8.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt, 6.9 net yards per pass attempt, and 7.2 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, and threw 22 touchdowns (5.5 touchdown percentage) to seven interceptions (1.7 interception percentage). All of those statistics were career bests.

Even the most ardent Vick detractors have to admit Vick put on a pretty amazing passing display last season, a display made even more impressive and improbable when his other seasons are considered.

In order to determine just how much of a statistical outlier Vick's 2010 was, I compared it to four other seasons in which he was the primary quarterback for at least 12 games. Once that was done, I found that there were statistically significant differences in at least two categories between his 2010 season and every other one.

For his 2002 season, which had been his best season before 2010, Vick's passing was statistically significantly inferior to his 2010 season in completion percentage (55.5 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (7.0 to 8.1), and adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 8.4).

When his 2004 season was compared to his 2010 year, he was statistically significantly inferior in yards per pass attempt (7.1 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.8 to 7.2), interception percentage (3.7 percent to 1.7 percent), and sack percentage (12.2 percent to 8.4 percent).

In relation to his 2010 campaign, his 2005 season was statistically significantly inferior in completion percentage (55.3 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.3 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2), and yards per completion (11.3 to 13.1).

His 2006 season saw him statistically significantly inferior to his 2010 one in completion percentage (52.4 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.9 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.1 to 6.9), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2).

There is simply no history to support the thinking that Vick will ever again have a season like the one he had in 2010, which is why the Eagles were smart not to commit to Vick for more than one more season. If he is unable to duplicate his 2010 exploits, then the Eagles will be able to release him and move on with a more reliable quarterbacking option. If Vick is able to have another season of that caliber, which seems a virtual impossibility given his track record, then they can move forward with a new contract, but not before knowing for sure what kind of quarterback Vick will be in the future.

Until he proves he can play that well again, however, it is best to treat Vick's season as one would any statistical outlier; that is, with extreme skepticism.