Flood damage could result in significant consequences to the Estes economy

Damaged highways would hinder tourist access to Estes and RMNP

By David Persons

Trail-Gazette

Posted:
10/08/2013 04:23:12 PM MDT

A bulldozer pushes dirt and rocks into a pile for other equipment to remove the materiel from Lake Estes. The sand and rocks are being used to rebuild and repair roads around Estes Park. (Walt Hester / Trail-Gazette)

Economic impacts report

The following scenarios describe the possible impacts on the local economy based on information gathered by Summit Economics in 2011. Summit Economics estimated that Estes Park saw approximately $187 million in tourism expenditures with approximately 56 percent of the visitors from out of state.

The impacts:

- If there is 100 percent loss in out-of-state sourced tourism expenditures ($104.7 million), an estimated 1,588 jobs will be lost, state economic activity will fall by $129.1 million (0.04 percent) and real household income will fall by $66.1 million (0.05 percent). State tax revenue will fall by $8.3 million and local tax revenue will fall by $6.3 million.

- If the loss in out-of-state sourced tourism expenditures is 70 percent ($73.4 million), then 1,111 jobs will be lost, state economic activity will fall by $90 million (0.03 percent) and real household income will fall by $46.1 million (0.03 percent). State tax revenue will fall by $5.8 million and local tax revenue will fall by $44 million.

- If the loss in out-of-state sourced tourism expenditures is 30 percent ($31.4 million), then 335 jobs will be lost, state economic activity will fall by $27.2 million (0.01 percent) and real household income will fall by $13.9 million (0.01 percent). State tax revenue will fall by $1.8 million and local tax revenue will fall by $1.3 million.

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Source: Economic Impacts of Colorado Flooding: Identifying the Dimensions and Estimating the Impacts of Reduced Tourism in Estes Park by the Regional Economics Institute and the Center for Disaster and Risk Analysis at Colorado State University.

A recently-released report on the economic impacts of last month's flash flood event paints a dire picture not only for Estes Park but for the state, too.

The report, published by Colorado State University's Regional Economics Institute and the Center for Disaster and Risk Analysis says if road and bridge damage limits access to Rocky Mountain National Park through the main part of the 2014 tourist season, the repercussions will be severe and widespread.

For example, Estes Park could see a 30 percent reduction in out-of-state tourism expenditures in 2014 (a loss of $31.4 million), a drop of 335 jobs statewide (mostly in Estes Park) and a drop in household income by 0.01 percent - a total of $13.9 million statewide.

And, under the same scenario, state tax revenue could decline by $1.8 million and local tax revenue by $1.3 million.

But, things could be worse, the report points out. If the reduction in out-of-state visitor spending is larger, then the impacts will be more substantial.

Estes Park officials have known from almost the first few days after the flood that the situation for the town is serious. The flood destroyed 200 miles of highway and 50 bridges statewide and did serious damage to local residents living along Fish Creek and parts of Fall River.

The two major roads leading to Estes Park - and to Rocky Mountain National Park - are U.S. 34 from Loveland and U.S. 36 from Lyons/Boulder. Both highways were hard hit. State transportation officials hope to open U.S. 36 by Dec. 1 in some fashion. U.S. 34 suffered the most damage - 85 percent of its roadway and bridges were destroyed - and it's full opening any time before the middle of next summer is uncertain at best.

If these roads aren't open by next summer's tourist season, the national park will likely see a huge reduction in the more than 3 million annual visitors, the report predicts. That's bad news for Estes Park where tourism-related activity accounts for 43 percent of total local employment and 65 percent of sales and use tax revenue.

The report adds: "With the roads essentially impassable, a large component of the Estes Park economy will simply shut down."

The report may be a bit strong and gloomy. It's certainly not what local officials want to hear at this time of recovery and rebuilding but it's also something they can't completely ignore either.

"I think this is really a perception thing," Estes Park Town Administrator Frank Lancaster said. "We're open for business. All our assets are still here. And, (Colorado) Highway 7 is open.

"We're seeing a lot of out-of-state visitors right now. For them, say they are coming from Chicago, it's not that difficult getting here.

"Where I think we're seeing our biggest impact is on our day-trippers from Fort Collins, Loveland, Boulder and Denver. They think it's a long trip.

"But, they just opened (Colo.) Highway 119 out of Boulder so it's a lot shorter now. In fact, from Denver, it's still easier to get here than it is to drive to Breckenridge."

Lancaster said the biggest problem for the town, other than the federal shutdown of Rocky Mountain National Park, is overcoming people's perceptions.

"Our challenge will be perceptions and marketing as we move forward," Lancaster said.

Estes Park Mayor Bill Pinkham, while not disputing the integrity of the report, says he's optimistic the situation will not get that bad.

"I guess my response is, in an academic sense, that may be accurate, but in terms of what is likely to happen I don't think that is realistic," he said. "The governor is still saying that (U.S. highways) 36 and 34 will be open by Dec. 1. Right at the moment, my understanding is that 36 is open to emergency vehicles.

"Things are beginning to happen and so I guess if things didn't open up until spring that would be a huge deal. I think the CSU portrayal is basically a worst case scenario and we are anticipating things to be much better than that."

Charlie Dickey and his wife, Kathleen George, who run Rustic Mountain Charm, agree with Lancaster and Pinkham about the need to get the roads open. But, they also think getting area Front Range visitors back in town is a big key, too.

"Getting the roads open are critical," Dickey said. "But, 119 is open and they say 36 will be open by Dec. 1. Highway 7 has been open for some time and it's the most beautiful time of the year to drive here.

"We have all the colors and the elk. We need to let people know it's OK to come to Estes Park."

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