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4 Preliminary explanations we are reporting on today Universe differences: Enforce CPS group quarter definitions on MSIS where we have administrative data address information Look for duplicate persons in different states or same state Measurement error: Link CPS respondents to MSIS data for CY 2000 to examine survey reports of enrollees Understand the covariates of misreporting

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5 Building a common universe CPS Sampling Frame MSIS Frame Group quarters, dead, not a valid record, in two states Not a valid record In CPS universe and in MSIS universe

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6 Preparing MSIS data for comparison and linking to CPS Removed MSIS dual eligible cases defined as a “group quarter” by Census Ran the 2000 MSIS data through Census Bureau’s Person-ID validation system A record is “valid” if in the appropriate format and demographic data is consistent Removed duplicate valid records Removed those MSIS enrollees not enrolled in “full benefits”

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8 Sample loss in the 2000 MSIS and 2001 CPS linking MSIS: 9% of all MSIS records did not have a valid record and were not eligible to be linked to the CPS CPS: 6.1% (respondents’ records not validated) + 21.5% (respondents refused to have their ______data linked) 27.6% (total not eligible to be linked to MSIS)

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9 The matched CPS-MSIS respondents with reported data only 12,341 CPS person records matched into the MSIS 1,906 records had imputed or edited CPS data (15.5% of total). Focusing on only those with explicitly reported data: 60% (responded they had Medicaid) 9% (responded some other type of public coverage but not Medicaid) 17% (responded some type of private coverage, but not Medicaid) 15% (responded they were uninsured) 101% (over 100% due to rounding)

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10 What factors are associated with measurement accuracy/error? Length of time enrolled in Medicaid Recency of enrollment in Medicaid Poverty status impacts Medicaid reporting but does not impact the percent reporting they are uninsured Adults 18-44 are less likely to report Medicaid enrollment Adults 18-44 more likely to report being uninsured Overall CPS rate of those with Medicaid reporting that they are uninsured is higher than other studies Overall CPS rate of those with Medicaid reporting Medicaid is lower than other studies

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11 Explanations of the undercount revisited: work remaining to be done Phase III: Measure Universe Differences: – Use 7 Medicaid state files with name and address information to understand the impact of MSIS non-validation (one of the states is CA) – Use enhanced MSIS data to further analyze the CPS sample frame coverage Phase IV: Assess Measurement Error: – Compare measurement error in the CPS to the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) by linking the NHIS to the MSIS – Compare measurement error in CPS to state survey experiments

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12 Continued Administrative and survey data processing, editing and imputation –Evaluate how well the CPS edits and imputations work at both the micro level and the overall macro level –Evaluate additional state-level Medicaid data Survey sample coverage error and survey nonresponse bias – Link the address data from the 7 states to the Census Bureau’s Master Address File to determine sample coverage problems – Assess whether those addresses with a Medicaid enrollee are more likely to not participate in Census Bureau surveys

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13 Study Conclusions We have presented preliminary results that are subject to change after further investigation At the moment we conclude that survey measurement error is playing the most significant role in producing the undercount –Some Medicaid enrollees answer that they have other types of coverage and some answer that they are uninsured The overall goal of the project is to improve the CPS for supporting health policy analysis – Especially refining estimates of the uninsured

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14 The Census Bureau’s Mandate for Administrative Records Use Title 13, Section 6: Use administrative records information as extensively as possible in lieu of conducting direct inquires Census Bureau Strategic Plan: Reduce reporting burden and minimize cost to taxpayer by acquiring and developing high-quality data from sources maintained by other government and commercial entities

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21 Current and Emerging Census Bureau Demographic Applications (3)  Reacting to disaster and other near-real time requirements  Katrina’s effect on the federal statistical system and our lack of current response data highlighted need  Acquired the USPS National Change of Address File and FEMA’s emergency management and flood insurance files  Developing next generation StARS – near real-time measurements

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22 Conclusions Integrated data architectures are the future of American statistics As the demand for data increases and budgets decrease data re-use many be the only cost-effective option Technical and policy related challenges must be addressed This approach will support evidence-based public policy research and decisions.

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