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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Oil prices on the international markets would shoot up to $400 a barrel if an attack were to be carried out on Iran, a senior Revolutionary Guards commander warned, Persian-language websites reported on Thursday.

Brigadier General Hassan Abbasi, who heads the Centre for Research on Security Without Borders Doctrines, speaking in the town of Karaj, said that until now negotiations with the Islamic Republic over its suspected nuclear weapons program were carried out in the framework of one of three doctrines; “Carrot and Stick”, “Good Cop, Bad Cop”, and “Trigger Mechanism”.

Abbasi described the West’s latest doctrine vis-à-vis Iran’s sensitive nuclear work as the “Chicken Strategy”, where “both parties follow a collision course at such fast speeds until one side eventually backs off”.

“This is the first time when the strategic balance between both sides is equal and Iran’s strategic stance is no longer from a position of weakness”, Abbasi said. READ MORE

The Revolutionary Guards General criticised Tehran’s previous policy of allowing international monitors to inspect a number of Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as suspending uranium enrichment activities. Abbasi warned that such a weak policy had run the risk of “the enemy defeating a country of 70 million people”.

“Given the West’s new doctrine against Iran, our country’s officials must resist to the last moment”, Abbasi insisted, adding that they must make use of the country’s geo-strategic position and economic advantages, such as its immense oil reserves, so as to never back down from their stance.

“All of this is at a time when the West’s problem is simply a shaky economy dependent on oil”.

“During last year’s evaluations of various theoretical outcomes, we reached the conclusion that in the event of an oil sales embargo on Iran the price of oil would reach 110 dollars and in the case of a military attack on Iran its price would reach 400 dollars. Therefore, knowing the West’s strategic knowledge of this matter, the oil sanction and military attack options against Iran are just a bluff.”

The senior Revolutionary Guards commander summed up by stating that Iran’s international nuclear stand-off had not reached an unmanageable crisis point and that Tehran had to continue its offensive.