Saturday, February 25, 2012

The key reports this week are the January Personal Income and Outlays report, and the ISM Manufacturing survey - both will be released on Thursday. Other key reports include the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, vehicle sales on Thursday, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP on Wednesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provides the Fed's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House and Senate respectively.

NOTES: The February employment report will be released the following week on Friday March 9th. Also both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to report results this week.

----- Monday, Feb 27th-----

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for 15.0 for the general business activity index, down slightly from from 15.3 in January.

11:00 AM: New York Fed to release Q4 2011 Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Tuesday, Feb 28th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Although this is the December report, it is really a 3 month average of October, November and December.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in prices (NSA) in December. I expect these indexes to be at new post-bubble lows, both seasonally adjusted (SA) and not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The CoreLogic index declined 1.4% decrease in December (NSA).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February. The consensus is for an increase to 64.0 from 61.1 last month.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. The consensus is for an increase to 13 for this survey from 12 in January (above zero is expansion). This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for February, and the other surveys have indicated stronger expansion in February.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (advance release). This is the second estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q4 (same as advance estimate).

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column is the advance estimate for Q4 GDP.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for an increase to 61.0, up from 60.2 in January.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Mar 1st-----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 355,000 from 351,000 last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income in January, and a 0.4% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for February.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The consensus is for a slight increase to 54.6 from 54.1 in January.

All day: Light vehicle sales for February. Light vehicle sales are expected to decline slightly to 14.0 million from 14.13 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.