..S. population over time spans as long as 50 years. Our simulation results reveal that even if requiring cigarettes to be safer makes smoking more attractive and increases tobacco use, a net gain in population health is still possible...

The AMA proposal to mandate nicotine reduction in cigarettes: a simulation of the population health impacts

..The purpose of this research is to estimate the long-term health gains or losses that are likely to accrue to the US population if the nicotine content of cigarettes is gradually reduced to trace levels over a 6-year period...