Single Status Update

The atmospheric circulation has helped the patterns taken on a much more El Nino type shape at the moment more so than since mid July. Hence the downstream high pressure over Europe has returned and low pressure to the west. The models have tried to revert the pattern back to late summer/start of autumn default a couple of times with retrogressed heights in the atlantic and a cyclonic/unsettled pattern for us and into Europe.

But bar Ophelia and the weekend low, next week shapes back to a similar pattern to where we have been - albeit very unlikely to be as warm as leading up to Ophelia and most changeable closer to the troughs running up to the NW of the UK.. The test in the 10 to 15 day period will be what happens to tropical convection - fairly high amplitude eastward movement sustains angular momentum and supports the suggested pattern - though heights increasing to the north west also a probably as the stratospheric vortex is displaced. But the cooler Pacific ENSO zone threatens abrupt end of MJO wave heading into Western Pacific and a revived Nina type response which would lead to a cool down and removal of heights to our east and augment the stratospheric signal for displaced heights to our west and trough into Scandinavia. Long way off at the moment in uncertain signals and consequent model output terms though.