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Rubio’s re-election race has national impact

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio answers questions from the press after paying his respects to the victims of the Pulse nightclub shooting at Dr. Phillips Center for the Performing Arts in Orlando on Thursday.(Photo: AP)

If Sen. Marco Rubio files his re-election papers in the Division of Elections this week, as expected, his campaign will reverberate far beyond Florida.

Rubio said last week he was going home to spend the Father’s Day weekend with his family, deciding if he wants another six years in Washington. When he ran for president, even after he was eliminated by the Florida primary on March 15, Rubio had insisted he wouldn’t run for re-election.

But the pieces of a new campaign started falling into place in the past month. Rubio said he wouldn’t shove his friend, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez Cantera, out of the Republican primary race – but even the lieutenant governor said he thought Rubio should run.

U.S. Rep. David Jolly quit the Senate race Friday, taking his re-election chances against Charlie Crist in a Democratic-leaning Tampa Bay district. Rep. Ron DeSantis said he hoped Rubio would decide soon, so he’ll know whether to qualify this week for re-election or stay in the Senate race.

Newcomer businessman Carlos Beruff – the self-proclaimed “non-politician” outsider – has said he will keep running, regardless. He won’t be a problem, if Rubio wants it.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and the Senate GOP caucus urged him to change his mind. Donald Trump, who belittled “Little Marco” in the presidential campaign, has joined the chorus.

At 45, Rubio has a bright political future, regardless what he decides this week. When he was saying he wouldn’t run again, everyone expected he’d go for governor in 2018 or try again for the Senate, either challenging Democrat Bill Nelson or, if Nelson retires, going for the open seat.

Then, in 2020, he could make another bid for the White House. That assumes, of course, that Trump won’t be there. Running now would give Rubio four years to rebuild his reputation in the Senate, which took some hits on immigration reform and attendance, while providing a national pulpit for criticizing Hillary Clinton.

The Democrats only need to pick up five seats to take over the Senate and the odds look good for them. GOP incumbents are considered almost doomed in Illinois and Wisconsin, and the re-election prospects of Republican senators in New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania are rated no better than “toss up.”

Without Rubio running, Florida is in that “could go either way” category in national surveys. That’s why his Republican colleagues want him to run.

Rep. Patrick Murphy is currently favored to beat Rep. Alan Grayson for the Democratic nomination to the Senate. This presidential year will bring a larger turnout in November, which generally favors Democrats.

Despite his 100 percent name recognition and other advantages of incumbency, Rubio has some handicaps. First, there would be the flip-flop, if he runs again after saying he wouldn’t. Then, there might be lingering resentment among Jeb Bush supporters, for ruining the former governor’s presidential chances.

Opponents are sure to bring up Rubio’s musings, during the presidential race, that he was a weary of the Senate and its stalemates, plus his absentee record. The latter is a bit of a red herring – a senator’s job is to get the job done, overall, not necessarily attend every rollcall and committee meeting – but it looks bad to those of us who don’t get paid if we don’t show up.

And then there’s the top of the ticket. Trump will be the heaviest millstone since George McGovern for his party’s congressional and gubernatorial candidates. Barring a dump-Trump coup in Cleveland, GOP candidates will smile and say what the Democrats did 44 years ago – some version of, “Well, I’m supporting my party, and he can run his campaign while I run mine.”

In Rubio’s case, when asked to defend the next mortifying Trump gaffe, he can even say, “Well, I tried to prevent him from being the nominee” — and then quickly change the subject.

A President Clinton with a Democratic Senate (and just maybe even a House majority, too) would have a two-year window to remake the country, starting with the Supreme Court. Assuming a next-generation Tea Party would do to her in 2018 what it did to President Obama in 2010, returning one or both chambers to the Republicans, the second half of her term would be more gridlock.

Keeping the White House in one party for 12 years is hard, hasn’t been done since the first President Bush basked in Ronald Reagan’s popularity and beat a weakened Mike Dukakis 28 years ago. In 2020, when Rubio is still under 50, he could be well-positioned to become the first Floridian to win a national campaign.

Bill Cotterell is a retired Democrat reporter who writes a twice-weekly column for the paper. He can be contacted at bcotterell@tallahassee.com.