Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Wisconsin Notes

-It's a good thing for Democrats that Jim Doyle decided not to run for reelection. His approval rating is now down to 29% with 57% of voters in the state disapproving of him. When PPP looked at Doyle's standing in June his approval was 34%. As the New Jersey Governor's election showed, no matter how Democratic your state is you simply can't get reelected with these kinds of numbers. 58% of Democrats approve of Doyle, a poor standing compared to Russ Feingold's 78% and Herb Kohl's 73% within the party. But where his numbers really stand out as poor are with independents (22% approval) and Republicans (5% approval).

-Kohl's approval rating is 45%, just as Feingold's was. Normally those numbers wouldn't be considered too great but in a time when voters are disgusted with all politicians and not too enamored with Democrats in particular that's not a bad showing- better than for most Senators we've polled on lately.

-You know it's shaping up to be a good year for the GOP when it holds the lead on the generic Congressional ballot in Wisconsin. 43% of voters in the state say they plan to vote Republican for Congress next year with 41% going for the Democrats. The key to the Republican lead is a 39-24 advantage with independents, mirroring the trend we're finding in almost every state.

Voters in Wisconsin have a pretty dim view of both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress. 36% have a favorable opinion of the Dems to 50% unfavorable. For the GOP it's 30% favorable and 51% unfavorable. The reason Republicans lead on the generic ballot despite being less popular than the Democrats is that they have a 63-12 edge with voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans- a group that accounts for 14% of the electorate. When you're unhappy with everyone you'll tend to vote for the party out of power.