Wednesday, January 08, 2014

Welcome to 2014, yet another critical election year, in a long line of critical election years. Has there ever been a year that wasn't a critical election year? These things matter. Elections have real consequences.

This is an off-year election, so it will be a base election. That also means we have to contend with decreased base Democratic performance. In short, our core constituencies don't vote in non-presidential years—Latinos, Asians, single women, and young voters. African Americans used to be on that list, but their off-year voting patterns have held up over the last several cycles. Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe says thanks to that. (Voters aged 18-29 went from 19 percent of the Virginia vote in 2012, to 13 percent in 2013. African Americans amazingly held steady at 20 percent.)

That's not to say that all's well in the black community. Mitt Romney won Georgia by about 370,000 votes. There are 600,000 unregistered African Americans who would be eligible to vote in Georgia, about 400,000 in them in metro Atlanta alone. (There are also 200,000 unregistered Latinos, for good measure.) You can do the math.

Bottom line, if our people turn out, we win. It really is that simple. There are more of us than there are of them. Register our people and get them to the polls, and all the Republican intensity in the world will mean little. But that's the only way we win, because Republicans will have no problems getting their people to the polls.

Indeed, Republicans are seeing their entire worldview crumble. Even though Obamacare was invented at Heritage and implemented by their 2012 presidential nominee, they've convinced themselves that it is worse than Hitler. And yet it is the law and won't be going anywhere.

Getting rid of the filibuster will now allow Democrats to "pack" the courts and agencies by, you know, filling vacancies.

There are married gay people in UTAH! Their innermost stronghold has been breached, and even though the Supreme Court stayed that decision, 17 states now allow unfettered love and commitment, and more will soon follow suit. And what's more, if the courts were to strike down marriage bans, Americans would approve!

Colorado and Washington have legalized pot. More states, from Alaska to Maine to Montana, will soon follow. Getting drunk on Bud Light is totally butch and awesome, even if you kill people or start a pub brawl or get liver cirrhosis. Mellowing out to a joint, however, means the fall of civilization.

White guys are an endangered species, and everyone else votes wrong.

Elizabeth Warren. First she starts that Consumer Finance Protection Board that is holding banks accountable for stuff. Then she gets elected to the Senate despite something something about Native Americans! And people take her seriously!

There's a black guy in the White House. Twice. And if that's not bad enough, the Clintons (the Clintons!) are the most likely successors. How could that be? Don't the American sheeple understand that Benghazi?

We can mock conservative neurosis, and we will, but it's actually very real. They really do believe that the "Leave it to Beaver" America of their fantasies is all but lost. And given how terrible the 2016 Senate map looks to Republicans, not to mention presidential year turnout, 2014 is really a last-gasp opportunity for the retrogrades.

If they lose this year and 2016, they'll have zero choice but to rebrand. They don't want to do that. They want to cling to every last one of their bigotries and hatreds. If they fail this year, they are done, and they know it. They are a rabid animal, backed into a corner, and everyone knows how dangerous those can be.

There's really nothing we can do about that. They're revved up and ready to go. We have to answer in kind. 2014 will come down to one thing: Can we register and motivate base Democrats to hit the polls in November? That's my job, your job, and that of your like-minded friends. Little else will matter.