Jun

22

Changes in prevailing direction in market with respect to time period H, such that H > t, often occur as period t has elements with increasing number of lows and increasing number of highs; often ranges decline, as the median price trajectory tilts over, volume decreases (very related to range decreases). The market is in a thixotropic state, where the market making viscous forces are the dominant presence. Sudden change in trading volume (and log changes in trading volume have a negative serial correlation, so such a thing is more likely than usual) perturb the system to a more inertially dominated market than before. Or: volatility contracts and expectations are harder to hit, and traders sideline, while the few voters left who think they have worthwhile wager battle it out.