So far at Wimbledon, Roger has faced zero break points and has yet to be taken to deuce on his serve in the 6 sets he has played. His path to the final is likely to be Struff, Medvedev, Anderson and Raonic. Whilst there are some big servers there, they sit 50th, 74th, 89th and 93rd respectively in the ATP’s “return leaders” charts. Frankly, it’s a rogues gallery of some of the worst returners on tour.

Consequently, whilst Federer is likely to have to work harder to break serve in the rest of the tournament, holding serve should get even easier. I now would put him odds on to reach the final without dropping serve if he does end up facing my predicted draw. Of course, in the final he is likely to face someone with a better return game but, in a one off match, it’s still entirely plausible on a grass court that he wins unbroken.

Still a long way to go but it would be an amazing achievement were Fed to do it.

But personally I’m not inclined to put a single dollar on it actually happening ..... !

Federer has been known to lose focus - if only in transient fashion - when playing comfortably against low-ranked opponents. AND almost everyone on Tour seems to raise their game against him. Lacko in R2 looked every bit a top ten player for short spells of the match, notwithstanding the scoreline. Ok, it didn’t get him any break points but I’m sure others will get their chances - and take at least one.

Can't see Federer holding serve if he plays Monfils who you will recall almost beat him at the USO not so long go. But knowing Gael he'll probably crash out (through injury?) before meeting Rog. The danger to Fed is not only Monfils but lack of tight matches (or did the scraps at Halle help him before Wimbledon?).

sirfredperry wrote:Can't see Federer holding serve if he plays Monfils who you will recall almost beat him at the USO not so long go. But knowing Gael he'll probably crash out (through injury?) before meeting Rog. The danger to Fed is not only Monfils but lack of tight matches (or did the scraps at Halle help him before Wimbledon?).

Why do players always 'crash out'? The BBC news said 'Edmund crashes out to Djokovic'.

lags72 wrote:Monfils would certainly be a test, and he undoubtedly has the talent to trouble Federer.

We don’t yet really know just where Fed’s true level is at. So far he has defeated three players who have no Slam credentials and who - between them - do not hold even one ATP singles title.

Monfils is a relatively weak returner - it’s one of the key reasons he’s never quite made it to the very top of the game. On a grass court, with Fed in this form, he’s basically relying on Fed to gift him a break if they do meet.

To be fair though, Mannarino is actually a far better returner than the remaining players in Fed’s likely path to the final. If he does get past him I think that’s probably the toughest barrier to this achievement out of the way until the final.

The fact is that we’ve seen four of the greatest of all time make it look easy to make the SF of slams time after time. It isn’t. We’re now entering a period where we don’t have the same calibre of level at the very top and so, understandably, we are seeing more upsets. It’s no surprise though that the big 3 (and Del Potro who, although not a player I like watching, is a level above the rest of the draw) have cruised through the draw so far.

The top half of the draw remains laughably weak. Whilst I’d like to see Federer tested before the final that clearly won’t happen now. I just hope he’s not undercooked when he gets there as, whilst he will be heavy favourite in a final, he’s likely to be facing someone capable to beating him if he’s slightly off his best. I think the ideal now would be a Fed v Novak final which should see Fed truly tested by someone who can put pressure on his serve.

One question that I do (increasingly) find myself asking is this : for just how much longer can a victory over Federer be considered “a big win” ?? The guy is about to turn 37 FFS !! That makes him around six years older than when Sampras - previously the Slam record holder - had called it a day. In times past, nobody would be given too much credit or praise for beating a Tour player old enough to be competing on the veterans circuit

I think the fact that Rafa & Fed currently sit way above all others in terms of ranking points is as much a reflection of their respective unique talents as it is about the very slow pace at which the young guns are making their way to the sport’s top table.

As pointless and ridiculously outdated as all that childish sort of waffle soon became on the old 606, there are times when I miss it - in a funny sort of way. Back in the day, it certainly provided a lot of amusement & light entertainment, amidst the more serious or ‘heavy’ technical, analytical stuff.

I do often wonder what happened to the likes of Uneducated Biased (and his alter egos Simple Analyst, Tennis Tutor, etc etc), Catalan Power - and of course Jewel of the East and Boromir. The pain that they will be suffering these days when they see Federer not only still regularly swapping the Number 1 and 2 spots with Rafa (with them both sharing the last six Slam titles) must surely be close to unbearable.

Mind you, I also wonder just how serious they were when they wrote their daily rants. I always remember a great post by JHM when he said to Uneducated Biased, out of the blue one day : “Be honest with us now. You don’t actually believe any of this guff you write, do you ?”

Mannarino has upped his level dramatically and this has coincided with a number of U/E’s by Federer (and which were totally absent in the rapid-fire set one). A much more interesting match now. Only himself to blame if Fed concedes this second, given how many BP’s he has failed to convert.