The Myth of an Autism Epidemic

We hear stories about the rise in autism and the autism epidemic all of the time.

Autism prevalence rates have been steady at 1 in 68 since 2010.

Every few years, the CDC had been releasing a new report which showed a higher prevalence of autism in the United States, including:

1 in 150 children in 2000

1 in 150 children in 2002

1 in 125 children in 2004

1 in 110 children in 2006

1 in 88 children in 2008

1 in 68 children in 2010

1 in 68 children in 2012

Looking at those numbers, it is easy to see most people think that the rate of autism is rising.

And if the rate of autism is rising, then there must be a cause.

Thinking about it like that, it becomes easy to see why vaccines became the scapegoat for causing autism, especially after Andrew Wakefield told everyone that it “is my feeling, that the, the risk of this particular syndrome developing is related to the combined vaccine, the MMR…”

The Myth of an Autism Epidemic

Many experts don’t think that there is an autism epidemic though.

“…the numbers of people born with autism aren’t necessarily increasing dramatically. It’s just that we’re getting better and better at counting them.”

There are several different explanations for the apparent rise in the number of children being diagnosed with autism, including:

better recognition among health care providers

better recognition among parents

diagnostic substitution – children were once diagnosed with other conditions, such as mental retardation and learning disabilities

broadening of the criteria used to diagnose autism, including changes in DSM criteria, which went from labeling children with autism as having childhood schizophrenia (1952) and including just three essential features of infantile autism (1980) to adding PDD-NOS (1987) and more subtypes and symptoms to the autism diagnosis category in DSM-IV (1994).

social influences, including that more parents may have wanted to seek help when more resources become available and because they may have become more accepting of the possibility that their child had autism, leading them to seek a diagnosis and services. For example, before 1975 and the Education for All Handicapped Children Act, children with disabilities were excluded from school. And then in 1990, the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) included autism as a separate disability, making it a little easier to get services.

All together, these explanations help explain what has been confirmed by numerous studies, that the true prevalence of autism hasn’t changed over time.

What To Know About The Autism Epidemic Myth

The idea that the ‘autism epidemic’ is a myth is not new – experts have been talking about it for over 10 years, which makes you wonder why some people still push the idea. An idea that hurts autistic families.

A 2015 study concluded that “Changes in reporting practices can account for most (60%) of the increase in the observed prevalence of ASDs in children born from 1980 through 1991 in Denmark. Hence, the study supports the argument that the apparent increase in ASDs in recent years is in large part attributable to changes in reporting practices.”

Some folks, especially those in the anti-vaccine movement, don’t want to believe that there is no autism epidemic though.

“If there is no autism epidemic, if there is a “stable incidence” of autism over recent decades, then this alone is powerful evidence against the vaccine hypothesis – and in fact removes the primary piece of evidence for a vaccine-autism connection.”

Steven Novella on The Increase in Autism Diagnoses: Two Hypotheses

After all, if there is no autism epidemic, then they can’t blame vaccines for be causing an autism epidemic…