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Like Original Screenplay, this category seems pretty locked up once you look at it. But that doesn’t mean that the other nominated screenplays aren’t quality work. Good on the Academy for nominating some great writing, but this one seems inevitable.

5th Most Likely To Win: Carol

CAROL: Just when it can’t get any worse, you run out of cigarettes.

It’s not nominated for Best Picture. The last movie to win here without being nominated for Best Picture was Gods & Monsters back in 1998. And that was back when there were only only five It’s a great screenplay, but I really don’t think Carol is winning anything.

4th Most Likely To Win: Brooklyn

ELLIS: Even if the first date is a disaster, I’ll give it another chance.

Being a Best Picture nominee, this has a slightly better chance. But I don’t know how many people really love this screenplay enough to vote for it. I know that people really adore this movie, but it seems like the top 3 nominees just have more love.

3rd Most Likely To Win: The Martian

MARK: “Luckily, I’m a botanist. Oh yeah. Mars will learn to fear me.”

If they really want to give this movie something, this could surprise everyone on Oscar night. The screenplay is very good and it’s a large part of why the film works. But there just doesn’t seem to be a lot of love for The Martian compared to some other films.

2nd Most Likely To Win: Room

MA: He was trying to trick me! Okay? There wasn’t a dog, Old Nick stole me!”

Seriously watch out for this one. It’s a beloved Best Picture contender that I seriously think has an outside chance of winning Best Picture. If it wins this, it’s probably taking Picture too. And it certainly deserves to win, too. But there’s just one little road bump in the way.

MY PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short

JARED: Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I’ll have my wife’s brother arrested.

It won WGA, BFCA and BAFTA. There’s no way you’re telling me this isn’t the frontrunner. The movie has a ton of love, and this feels like the one Oscar that it’s definitely going to win. I feel kinda bad, because both Spotlight and The Big Short are good movies with great screenplays, but it just seems so obvious to me that Inside Out & Room are the ones that should be winning stuff. But it seems like I’m one of the few people with this opinion.