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Saturday (morning) Weekly Market Wrap for January 5, 2012

By: Steve Bauer | Saturday, January 5, 2013

Good Morning: It's Saturday again...

Accuracy in Forecasting -- Is What it is All About:

This all dates back to over 50 years of my work / analytics of Raw Data Interpretation
and Inflection Points.

I have written a large number of articles on my Methodology which is
based on the early and clear Forecasting and Identification of all Inflection
Points. I know of no other source of information and data that provides LEADING
guidance with this consistent accuracy.

The Market for the Past Week

Well the "Switching between Bullish and Bearish" each week continues.

Permit me to make this point over and over again. You must separate a "News" drive
Market from the Real Thing! This past few weeks should explain that remark
in spades. If not you are in trouble as an Investor.

We are back to a Bullish Week, a very Bullish Week for both the NY and the
Nasdaq. For me, that means nothing so long as my Fundamental - Valuations
and Technical Indicators are working very, very well. Believe me they are
definitely - Working Very, Very Well!

I remain Bearish and I / We (Clients) are definitely "Bearish." The Bounce
/ Mini-Rally I have Forecast - remains and is (barely) still in place. (Please
see my Inflection Point Count on StockCharts Public List - see below for the
URLs).

I will repeat this paragraph until the cows come home: Remember, there is
only one thing that can DELAY an Accurate Forecast -- That is - NEWS. I hope
you agree that, like always NEWS is manufactured and often very misleading.
For me, the Fiscal Cliff thing was and now has become just another Washington
joke. The shenanigans that go on, each and every day are not worth your energy
of trying to figure out. Learn to just smile.

My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally is also still in place but now is the time
when I get very surgical.

Repeating: This week's News was, you guessed it - "Fiscal Cliff." A catchy
name that grabs headlines but have you scratched below the Hype? Curtailed
Spending and/or Higher Taxes is the hype by the media.

Repeating: The U.S. Economy has been propped up for decades by DEBT. The Government
is in DEBT, and that has licensed the People to be in DEBT. The Japanese were
the greatest Savers in modern time. Twenty years ago their Government - Changed
the Rules - and today the Japanese are no longer - like in the U.S. - good
Savers. Oh, by the way - Japan is in Deep Pucky - Economically and so is the
U.S!

Repeating: Perhaps rubbing it in just a bit -- Repeating: My June and October
Forecast for Apple, Inc. was and is very accurate. I have used AAPL as a Bellwether
for years and it is as good as any Indicator you might use. I am not so sure
Apple, Inc. will not look a lot like Microsoft Corp. did over the past decade
- that is after the next decade is over. That too is a Warning. Good Company
Indicators are hard to find and they definitely don't last.

In this supposed powerful Bullish week you might have a look at the performance
of Apple, Inc. High: $555 / Low: $509 / Close: $527. Those number are telling
you a great story but my experience is that few people pay attention to details
like this. It won't be long before AAPL resumes its current Down-Trend.

Closing at $527 it is off its high of $702 by over 20%. Twenty percent is
considered a Bear Market by most "Market Experts Opinons." So, Apple, Inc.
is having its own Bear Market. Last Saturday I Said: I am forecasting a rally
in Apple again, but that will likely be - "only a nice bounce." It is following
my Forecast - check it/me out for accuracy.

Remember, Apple, Inc. is one of my Bellwether Companies that I follow very
closely.

Here is what I have said for weeks about the U.S. Recession: "the U.S. is
in an (unannounced) Recession, that and much more will be "announced" AFTER
the Election. I believe you will find that -- nine European Countries are
IN Formal / Announced Recessions. The U.S. and some Asian Countries are also
in peril."

The coming U.S. Recession will be very, very hurtful for the People. My Passport
says on the first page "We the People." "People" is not a revered word for
the leadership of most Countries in this world - any more. It (the Recession)
will be "Cleansing" and that is good but you will see and be living in a very
different world in the next few years.

For the week, the NY and the Nasdaq were UP a lot due to euphoric and likely
unrealistic response to the News. The last Pull Back lasted eight weeks.

My Fundamental - Valuation Work / Forecast of -- Not such good Earnings was
again endorsed and magnified this past week.

Job gains reported Friday depressed the Marketplace. There are over 3 million
workers hopelessly unemployed. And, people keep speculating in the Stock Market.

Europe and Asia are not doing any better despite what you read.

Not a pretty picture for the foreseeable future...

My Inflection Point (I.P.) Count and Now - More

It closed the week at again an anemic 74 - but bounced up a bit for
the week So far in this "Bounce / Mini-Rally" it is likely telling us that
my Forecast for a General Market -- Pull-Back is coming sooner rather than
later. Apple, Inc. has been telling this story for a few months now. Remember "News" can
change that picture very quickly and often does! I continue to be impressed
with the "Accuracy" and "Sensitivity" of My Proprietary Indicator. I am now
adding a second Market Indicator. Check it out.

I have recently written another fancy technical program that goes even further
into the "guts and bones" of my I. P. Count Indicator. It caught the rally
two days before it happened and this newest program gave over one week notice.
For me, that is impressive! See page three. http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666

I Do Not Believe in or use a Crystal Ball -- Weegie Board - Witching Stick!
My "stuff" requires many hours of using my experience (good and bad) and hard
work!

I now use 6 proprietary Technical Tools that can only be created and monitored
by using data input to Excel graphics.

This might just be the best Indicator I have ever seen! "Plug In" -- You might
be impressed too?

I would appreciate your becoming a "Follower" and "Vote" to keep this Indicator
Public. You will have to use the below URL to participate.

I am requesting you to do this - so that StockCharts.com keeps me "live" on
their Public List. Just click on "Follower" and / or "Vote" in the upper right
corner after entering the following URL: http://stockcharts.com/public/1616666.
It is the only way to keep this work alive on StockCharts PublicList. You
can Vote once per day!

Thanks for your support for my "stuff" - its growing...

Repeating: I continue to find little to nothing to de-rail my position that
the U.S. is already in an (unannounced) Recession -- and -- that a "Confirmed" Bearish
Inflection Point is well over due.

My Forecast - Bounce / Mini-Rally has now materialized and it is Not Over
Yet - despite Apple and many other Companies plummeting.

My "Stuff" / Methodology works very well for both Me and My Clients for over
50 years with only two set-backs.

Summary for the Week

* The Stock Market - (Indices) was Up - NY and Nasdaq this past Week
as Forecast!

* The Stock Market - (Breadth) continued Up this past Week as Forecast!

* The Stock Market - (Insiders) was Up this past Week as Forecast!

* The Stock Market - (High Yield Bonds) was Up this past Week as Forecast!

Weekly Conclusion: They (the above) are currently and generally - In Sync.
And they all have serious Deteriorating (Bearish) Technical Indicators. Understand
that: There is an important difference with each of these Market Indicators...
I know of no Financial Analyst that has an Accurate Handle on - these four
important and key Market Indicators. My Forecast for a Bounce / Mini-Rally
is still in force.

Note: My Forecast for the General Market (Indices / Breadth / Insider
/ Bond Yield) is Bearish, but REQUIRES "Confirmations" to
be activated. Until my "Confirmations" are in place (Kick-In)
I cannot take further Bearish Positions.

Treasuries were as expected Down for the week. I have Forecast for
well over a month that: A Pull Back is in the making. That Forecast is accurate
for 6 weeks now having a Flat Top. Last week I said: This week I have changed
my Forecast to Bullish. Investing in Treasuries that have been moving sideways
since September 2011 is not a good way to Invest Your Money! Warnings / Forecasts
were offered then and now!

The U.S. Dollar was Up over one percent. Note the divergence between
Tresuries and the Dollar. Investors think the track exactly - The Don't! The
Dollar seems to be leading Treasuries for several months - that could be the
cast. As for the Market the Dollar would be considered quite Bearish for the
past three weeks. Hum... My (quite accurate) Forecast Rally now looks like
it is beginning to Top.

Oil (Crude) was Up again BIG but that won't last. Last Week I said: "A
Mini-Rally is in force, however I would expect a pull back to begin again
rather soon." Crude Oil has been down since early September. That too was
Forecast.

Gold was Flat. Is a rally in the making? Yes but I won't participate
for awhile. I'll let you know... Remember the Highs were way back in August
2011 at $1925. The current price of $1658 is a long ways from getting excited
again.

The Gold Bugs are always excited and seldom have much to support their excitement.
From what I read -- they too are just doing their thing for the past year
or so! And that is most usually the Wrong Thing.

Silver was also Up slightly. Same question - is a rally in the making?
Yes, but I would wait awhile. Is currently tracking Gold - or - vice-versa?

Commodities (Comprehensive) was Down just a bit. "After my Forecast
September to December of a Pull-Back - I now Forecast that a Rally is in the
making." That too Questionable! I keep close tabs on these Commodities, they
too are great Indicators for knowing the future direction of the Stock Market.

I hope and invite you to permit me to reply your Questions and Thoughts.

The following are the 13 Companies and 13 ETFs that I providing Articles and
Alerts / Warnings. Remember, these are only my Bellwether Companies as a partial
guide to use my Rotation Model to Identify the Currently Most Favorable Companies
and ETFs to consider at the time of the above mentioned Inflection Points.

Steve has several degrees, i.e. post graduate degrees and doctorate and a
great deal of (too much) continued education. For seven years, he did a stent
as a University Professor of Finance and Economics.