I have no quarrel with the idea that M222 cropped up among the Celts of Northern Britain. Scotland did not exist as a country at the time, so I try to avoid anachronism. What I say is:

Quote

The La Tène Culture of the Central European Celts spread into Britain in the late Iron Age. It arrived in North-Eastern Ireland from northern Britain around 200 BC and spread across the north of the island, north of a Dublin-Galway line. Along with it came the first rotary querns in Ireland. These were a particular type of beehive quern known also in northern England and southern Scotland. Although the humble quern tends not to be found on the same sites as high-status La Tène objects, they are part of the same picture. Three have been found with ornament of La Tène type. The Y-DNA haplogroup R1b-M222 is found in Northern Ireland, Lowland Scotland and Northern England and may reflect the arrival of La Tène in Ireland.

Miles - you are not the only man who would like to feel that the Y-DNA haplogroup he carries is exclusive to the ethnicity of which he is so proud. I see this over and over again from just about all nationalities. One day I think that desire will be gratified in many people.

Once upon a time all the geneticists had were huge haplogroups like R or J or C that spread over vast chunks of the globe. One Maltese man told me that he was so shocked to discover that he had a "foreign" haplogroup (J1) that it put him right off genetic genealogy. I responded that all the Y-DNA "parent" haplogroups or paragroups, signified just by a letter, originated outside Europe, with the possible exception of I. This all happened so long ago, that I doubt there was any concept of "Europe" at the time.

Geneticists have managed to gradually split these huge groups up into subclades, some of which are much more restricted geographically. Even so, if a subclade is thousands of years old, it makes no sense to project back into such a distance our concepts of political boundaries. Bell Beaker People roamed over most of Europe, but clearly retained a sense of kinship and clan, though we can't put a name to these until much later on.

Gradually geneticists are working their way towards subclades that can be linked with surnames and have origins well within the historic period. At last it will all start making sense to men who feel "I am Borogrovian, so I should have a Borogrovian haplogroup, and preferably one that shows my descent from Igrave the Merciless."

The reason why people have looked to a movement into Ireland as the explanation for the spread of L21 and M222 is that their date and location better fit that scenario when looking at archaeological evidence.

By contrast R1b-L144 better fits a distribution from Ireland. I have just added something about this to my page on Celtic tribes. I'm about to blog about it.

The recent Myres study found M222, though in a small amount, in Malmö in Sweden (2 out of 139, or 1.4%), as I pointed out in the R1b in Sweden thread. I don't believe they found any in Denmark, though those were smaller samples. I offer no opinion how or when M222 got to Sweden. There are just too many possible explanations.

The difference between L21* and M222 are that there is surely absolutely no way L21 originated in Ireland but I think an Irish origin for M222 remains a reasonable possibility although there are other options. There is some evidence for a British origin (variance) but with small sample sizes and a number of pitfalls in the use of variance (although its the best tool we have) I think the origin of M222 remains an open question. A lot depends on the date. Archaeology really is heavily against M222 originating in Ireland and moving to Britain in the BC part of the Iron Age when Ireland had a low population and was a strange backwater with a of apparent Bronze Age continuity in may aspects of material culture other than a modest quantity of La Tene metalwork mainly in the northern two-thirds. However, if its date is as some have calculated c. 400AD (plus or minus a bit) then that falls into a period where the Irish population size (as implied from pollen in bog cores etc) had exploded and classical and native (as well as inscription and placename) evidence is pretty good for Irish migration to the western seaboard of the collapsing Roman Britain. So, for me, a lot depends on the date. A British origin and later dispersal westwards is more likely in the 300BC-150AD bracket and an Irish origin with a dispersal eastwards is more likely from around 300AD. However, I cannot see the M222 date ever being calculated without confidence intervals that would cover both the BC and AD periods just noted. As for continental origin, i dont know. Noone seems to trust Myres et al.

The difference between L21* and M222 are that there is surely absolutely no way L21 originated in Ireland but I think an Irish origin for M222 remains a reasonable possibility although there are other options. There is some evidence for a British origin (variance) but with small sample sizes and a number of pitfalls in the use of variance (although its the best tool we have) I think the origin of M222 remains an open question. A lot depends on the date. Archaeology really is heavily against M222 originating in Ireland and moving to Britain in the BC part of the Iron Age when Ireland had a low population and was a strange backwater with a of apparent Bronze Age continuity in may aspects of material culture other than a modest quantity of La Tene metalwork mainly in the northern two-thirds. However, if its date is as some have calculated c. 400AD (plus or minus a bit) then that falls into a period where the Irish population size (as implied from pollen in bog cores etc) had exploded and classical and native (as well as inscription and placename) evidence is pretty good for Irish migration to the western seaboard of the collapsing Roman Britain. So, for me, a lot depends on the date. A British origin and later dispersal westwards is more likely in the 300BC-150AD bracket and an Irish origin with a dispersal eastwards is more likely from around 300AD. However, I cannot see the M222 date ever being calculated without confidence intervals that would cover both the BC and AD periods just noted. As for continental origin, i dont know. Noone seems to trust Myres et al.

Is it pretty well established that M222 in Northern Britain has more variance than M222 in Ireland?

To be honest the first I heard of this was Mike's calculations in the last month or two. However, the result is striking although perhaps the sample would be an issue in the eyes of some??? Probably best Mike comments on that. Its stuff like Mike's calculations throwing a cat among the pigeons that keep me interested in this hobby. Other than phylogeny, which can be pretty broad brush, variance is all we have. Its certainly the only tool we have to infer the relative age of a clade in one area compared to another. It may have pitfalls but without that we would have nothing at all and we may as well give up right now.

The difference between L21* and M222 are that there is surely absolutely no way L21 originated in Ireland but I think an Irish origin for M222 remains a reasonable possibility although there are other options. There is some evidence for a British origin (variance) but with small sample sizes and a number of pitfalls in the use of variance (although its the best tool we have) I think the origin of M222 remains an open question. A lot depends on the date. Archaeology really is heavily against M222 originating in Ireland and moving to Britain in the BC part of the Iron Age when Ireland had a low population and was a strange backwater with a of apparent Bronze Age continuity in may aspects of material culture other than a modest quantity of La Tene metalwork mainly in the northern two-thirds. However, if its date is as some have calculated c. 400AD (plus or minus a bit) then that falls into a period where the Irish population size (as implied from pollen in bog cores etc) had exploded and classical and native (as well as inscription and placename) evidence is pretty good for Irish migration to the western seaboard of the collapsing Roman Britain. So, for me, a lot depends on the date. A British origin and later dispersal westwards is more likely in the 300BC-150AD bracket and an Irish origin with a dispersal eastwards is more likely from around 300AD. However, I cannot see the M222 date ever being calculated without confidence intervals that would cover both the BC and AD periods just noted. As for continental origin, i dont know. Noone seems to trust Myres et al.

Is it pretty well established that M222 in Northern Britain has more variance than M222 in Ireland?

Oh and as far as I know what Mike said was English M222 was older than both Irish and Scottish. I dont think he used the term north British. I think it was an England vs Ireland/Scotland comparison.

Is it pretty well established that M222 in Northern Britain has more variance than M222 in Ireland?

Oh and as far as I know what Mike said was English M222 was older than both Irish and Scottish. I dont think he used the term north British. I think it was an England vs Ireland/Scotland comparison.

My use of the terms England, Scotland and Ireland are not ethnicity related, but purely related to modern political boundaries except for by Ireland I mean the whole island not just the Republic. I did not include Wales because I've only found a few M222 there.

I originally started looking at this to see if it appeared that M222 was older in Ireland or in Scotland to see how it matched up with the history and folklore of Niall, etc.

We have plenty of confirmed M222 long haplotypes from Ireland and Scotland so I say this with confidence the variance, and therefore probably the age, of Ireland and Scotland is pretty much equal. You can also look at Scotland and Ireland as one and compare them to Scotland and Ireland individually and it's still all about the same. The implication is that the M222 people in Ireland and Scotland were basically the same people at the time of their expansions there.... and it must have been a rapid and mighty expansion. They are very hard group to "sub" cluster. Is this telling?... that M222 in Ireland and Scotland are basically one group?

As far as the veracity that I can say the variance of M222 from England is greater than Ireland or Scotland or Scotland+Ireland; it is not definitive. I think data from England is limited as I have only 18 haplotypes from England. However, the amount of difference is significant. As I've gone from 12 to 15 haplotypes and now to 18, it's holding steady at 20 to 50% higher variance fom England.

I'm not a gambling man so I wouldn't put money on England having the higher variance at the end of the day. However, if I had to bet, I'd bet England will remain with the higher variance.

I'll look for more M222 from England. I've got a feeling they all don't join the NW Irish project.

Is it pretty well established that M222 in Northern Britain has more variance than M222 in Ireland?

Oh and as far as I know what Mike said was English M222 was older than both Irish and Scottish. I dont think he used the term north British. I think it was an England vs Ireland/Scotland comparison.

My use of the terms England, Scotland and Ireland are not ethnicity related, but purely related to modern political boundaries except for by Ireland I mean the whole island not just the Republic. I did not include Wales because I've only found a few M222 there.

I originally started looking at this to see if it appeared that M222 was older in Ireland or in Scotland to see how it matched up with the history and folklore of Niall, etc.

We have plenty of confirmed M222 long haplotypes from Ireland and Scotland so I say this with confidence the variance, and therefore probably the age, of Ireland and Scotland is pretty much equal. You can also look at Scotland and Ireland as one and compare them to Scotland and Ireland individually and it's still all about the same. The implication is that the M222 people in Ireland and Scotland were basically the same people at the time of their expansions there.... and it must have been a rapid and mighty expansion. They are very hard group to "sub" cluster. Is this telling?... that M222 in Ireland and Scotland are basically one group?

As far as the veracity that I can say the variance of M222 from England is greater than Ireland or Scotland or Scotland+Ireland; it is not definitive. I think data from England is limited as I have only 18 haplotypes from England. However, the amount of difference is significant. As I've gone from 12 to 15 haplotypes and now to 18, it's holding steady at 20 to 50% higher variance fom England.

I'm not a gambling man so I wouldn't put money on England having the higher variance at the end of the day. However, if I had to bet, I'd bet England will remain with the higher variance.

I'll look for more M222 from England. I've got a feeling they all don't join the NW Irish project.

It's seems that the Ui Neill kindred in both Ireland and Scotland really are closely related. We just need more English samples to say with certainty that M222 is older there.

As far as the veracity that I can say the variance of M222 from England is greater than Ireland or Scotland or Scotland+Ireland; it is not definitive. I think data from England is limited as I have only 18 haplotypes from England. However, the amount of difference is significant. As I've gone from 12 to 15 haplotypes and now to 18, it's holding steady at 20 to 50% higher variance fom England.

Here are details....

Surnames of M222 MDKA's from England with countries of highest surname frequency:Bell - EnglandBrents - EnglandCox - EnglandCuthbert - EnglandClarkson - EnglandDalton - IrelandGalyean - GermanyHorton - EnglandHowle - EnglandKelly - IrelandKnowles - EnglandMcDonald - ScotlandOwsley - EnglandPepper - England - EnglandRyall - England/Ireland/WalesSavage - Ireland/England/ScotlandSmith - EnglandComment: I'm not a surname expert so I checked the World Surname Profiler against these surnames for highest frequencies. They seem appropriate for people who might have been in England a long time other than Kelly and McDonald.

Locations of M222 MDKA's from England where specified:North West, Cumbria, LongtownYorkshire and Humber, North Lincolnshire, GrasbyYorkshire and Humber, East YorkshireEast Midlands, LeicesterSouth West, Devonshire, CornwoodSouth West, DevonshireLondonEast, HertfordshireEast, Norfolk, North Norfolk, WightonComment: The locations seem scattered and not necessarily pooled on the border with Scotland.

Birth dates of MDKA's from England:1609, 1618, 1663, 1668, 1684, 1685, 1689, 1745, 1750, 1794, 1801, 1802, 1806, 1831, 1850, 1865, 1869Comment: I know that there is a following of those who believe the Industrial Revolution brought a lot of Irish to England. This may very well be true, but keep in mind we are not tracking current M222's in England or there might be a lot more of them. We are tracking Most Distant Known Ancestors. I think odds of the Industrial Revolution being the immigration source for these MDKA's are diminished. This is based on my understanding that the First Industrial Revolution started around 1780 and wasn't in full swing until the 1830's. We know the 1840's was a significant time for Irish out-migration due to food scarcities.

... The implication is that the M222 people in Ireland and Scotland were basically the same people at the time of their expansions there.... and it must have been a rapid and mighty expansion. They are very hard group to "sub" cluster. Is this telling?... that M222 in Ireland and Scotland are basically one group?

It's seems that the Ui Neill kindred in both Ireland and Scotland really are closely related. We just need more English samples to say with certainty that M222 is older there.

Is it well demonstrated that the Ui Neill's are the progenitors of M222 in Ireland Scotland? I know there have been articles on the topic and I believe a study, but what is the essential reasoning and data?

Is it well demonstrated that the Ui Neill's are the progenitors of M222 in Ireland Scotland?

No. According to Moore et al (2006), M222 is carried by nearly 20% of the men in Donegal today. In early historic times this was the territory of the northern Uí Néill, presumed descendants of the fabled 5th-century warlord, Niall of the Nine Hostages. They found M222 particularly common among those with some Uí Néill surnames, such as O'Doherty, though not most of the O'Neills themselves. It also appears among the Connachta, supposed descendants of the brothers of Niall. So they labelled it as the lineage of Niall.[1] But its concentration among Lowland Scots (rather than in Gaelic Argyll) [2] and northern English [3] suggests that it is centuries older than Niall.

John D. McLaughlin and David Wilson of the M222 Project dismiss any link to Niall and feel that it should be labelled Northwest Irish/Lowland Scots.[2] In a personal communication David Ewing told me that "There is pretty much universal agreement that it did not originate in Niall, that a lot of the O'Neills are not of this type and that a number of families known not to be O'Neills are of this type, but otherwise there is no consensus."

As far as the veracity that I can say the variance of M222 from England is greater than Ireland or Scotland or Scotland+Ireland; it is not definitive. I think data from England is limited as I have only 18 haplotypes from England. However, the amount of difference is significant. As I've gone from 12 to 15 haplotypes and now to 18, it's holding steady at 20 to 50% higher variance fom England.

Here are details....

Surnames of M222 MDKA's from England with countries of highest surname frequency:Bell - EnglandBrents - EnglandCox - EnglandCuthbert - EnglandClarkson - EnglandDalton - IrelandGalyean - GermanyHorton - EnglandHowle - EnglandKelly - IrelandKnowles - EnglandMcDonald - ScotlandOwsley - EnglandPepper - England - EnglandRyall - England/Ireland/WalesSavage - Ireland/England/ScotlandSmith - EnglandComment: I'm not a surname expert so I checked the World Surname Profiler against these surnames for highest frequencies. They seem appropriate for people who might have been in England a long time other than Kelly and McDonald.

Locations of M222 MDKA's from England where specified:North West, Cumbria, LongtownYorkshire and Humber, North Lincolnshire, GrasbyYorkshire and Humber, East YorkshireEast Midlands, LeicesterSouth West, Devonshire, CornwoodSouth West, DevonshireLondonEast, HertfordshireEast, Norfolk, North Norfolk, WightonComment: The locations seem scattered and not necessarily pooled on the border with Scotland.

Birth dates of MDKA's from England:1609, 1618, 1663, 1668, 1684, 1685, 1689, 1745, 1750, 1794, 1801, 1802, 1806, 1831, 1850, 1865, 1869Comment: I know that there is a following of those who believe the Industrial Revolution brought a lot of Irish to England. This may very well be true, but keep in mind we are not tracking current M222's in England or there might be a lot more of them. We are tracking Most Distant Known Ancestors. I think odds of the Industrial Revolution being the immigration source for these MDKA's are diminished. This is based on my understanding that the First Industrial Revolution started around 1780 and wasn't in full swing until the 1830's. We know the 1840's was a significant time for Irish out-migration due to food scarcities.

I've got another M222 MDKA from England - Minzie. The name is most common in:MANCHESTER , NORTH WEST , UNITED KINGDOMNOTTINGHAM , EAST MIDLANDS , UNITED KINGDOM

The actual MDKA is from Middlesex and was born in 1726, another pre-Industrial era guy. The variance difference of England over Ireland didn't change.

Is it well demonstrated that the Ui Neill's are the progenitors of M222 in Ireland Scotland?

No. According to Moore et al (2006), M222 is carried by nearly 20% of the men in Donegal today. In early historic times this was the territory of the northern Uí Néill, presumed descendants of the fabled 5th-century warlord, Niall of the Nine Hostages. They found M222 particularly common among those with some Uí Néill surnames, such as O'Doherty, though not most of the O'Neills themselves. It also appears among the Connachta, supposed descendants of the brothers of Niall. So they labelled it as the lineage of Niall.[1] But its concentration among Lowland Scots (rather than in Gaelic Argyll) [2] and northern English [3] suggests that it is centuries older than Niall.

John D. McLaughlin and David Wilson of the M222 Project dismiss any link to Niall and feel that it should be labelled Northwest Irish/Lowland Scots.[2] In a personal communication David Ewing told me that "There is pretty much universal agreement that it did not originate in Niall, that a lot of the O'Neills are not of this type and that a number of families known not to be O'Neills are of this type, but otherwise there is no consensus."

Got to say I agree with a lot of that. M222 seems to link NW Ireland with the Scottish border area, a link not known in history and quite quite distinct from the Dalriada link between NE Ireland and west Highland/Inner Hebridean Scotland. I think a link that is not recorded in history or mythology is likely. Digging into my memory banks I recall an article by Richard Warner that dealt with links between Ireland and Scotland and, if I remember it correctly it included what seemed to be a link between the north of Ireland and the Scottish-English border area. The chapter was

Warner, R.B. "Ireland, Ulster and Scotland in the Earlier Iron Age", in Clarke D.V. & O'Connor (eds) 'From the Stone Age to the Forty Five'. .

I don't think we need to drag Richard Warner out of retirement. The beehive quern is found all over northern Ireland. Its origin lies in Britain. There seems a certain amount of disagreement over dating and precise point (in Britain) from which it crossed to Ireland. Not to mention the inevitable controversy over whether this represents an incoming people. But this is what I say:

Quote

The La Tène Culture of the Central European Celts spread into Britain in the late Iron Age. It arrived in North-Eastern Ireland from northern Britain around 200 BC and spread across the north of the island, north of a Dublin-Galway line. Along with it came the first rotary querns in Ireland. These were a particular type of beehive quern known also in northern England and southern Scotland. Although the humble quern tends not to be found on the same sites as high-status La Tène objects, they are part of the same picture. Three have been found with ornament of La Tène type.

I don't think we need to drag Richard Warner out of retirement. The beehive quern is found all over northern Ireland. Its origin lies in Britain. There seems a certain amount of disagreement over dating and precise point (in Britain) from which it crossed to Ireland. Not to mention the inevitable controversy over whether this represents an incoming people. But this is what I say:

Quote

The La Tène Culture of the Central European Celts spread into Britain in the late Iron Age. It arrived in North-Eastern Ireland from northern Britain around 200 BC and spread across the north of the island, north of a Dublin-Galway line. Along with it came the first rotary querns in Ireland. These were a particular type of beehive quern known also in northern England and southern Scotland. Although the humble quern tends not to be found on the same sites as high-status La Tène objects, they are part of the same picture. Three have been found with ornament of La Tène type.

I think Richard's chapter was based mainly on metalwork of the very early centuries AD. He got his specialist knowledge from being a museum curator. He also was one of the few people brave enough to dabble in Irish literature/mythology and archaeology. He made me aware of O'Rahilly's famous work and Reeve's crucial book relating to Early Christian tribes in NE Ireland I mentioned recently, crucial starting points to interests in those areas. I think you would be interested in his various papers as he is big into the idea of Irish-Scottish links in both directions in the Roman period.

.... A lot depends on the date. Archaeology really is heavily against M222 originating in Ireland and moving to Britain in the BC part of the Iron Age when Ireland had a low population and was a strange backwater with a of apparent Bronze Age continuity in may aspects of material culture other than a modest quantity of La Tene metalwork mainly in the northern two-thirds. However, if its date is as some have calculated c. 400AD (plus or minus a bit) then that falls into a period where the Irish population size (as implied from pollen in bog cores etc) had exploded and classical and native (as well as inscription and placename) evidence is pretty good for Irish migration to the western seaboard of the collapsing Roman Britain. So, for me, a lot depends on the date. A British origin and later dispersal westwards is more likely in the 300BC-150AD bracket and an Irish origin with a dispersal eastwards is more likely from around 300AD. ....

I agree that subclade age estimates are subject to question.

The best I can come up with is to use the best scientific thought available as the scale, then, since Ken N says variance is linear, work with it to place M222 on the scale.

My opinion is that the Karafet et al 2008 "New binary polymorphisms reshape and increase resolution of the human Y chromosomal haplogroup tree" study is a good approach as they looked beyond STR variance into counting SNP-based branch lengths. The deepest clade for us that the study dealt with was there 18.5K ybp for R1. www.familytreedna.com/pdf/Karafet-et-all-GR508.pdf

Hammer of FTDNA/U of Ariz was on the Karafet team and in 2009 he presented that R-M269 was 4-8K ybp.

Vince V has estimated in ht35 topic related discussions that P312 might be around 1000 years younger than R-M269. Vince, or anyone, is that fair? If so R-P312 would be 3.5-7K ybp.

Comparing 296 R-M222 67 length ht's with 2100 R-P312 67 length ht's, using the 50 non multi-copy markers, I get M222's variance as 46% of P312's (all subclades). That comes out to a range of 1.6-3.2K ybp.

The net is a probable range for M222 of 1200 BC to 400 AD so we can't rule out a 300 AD plus Irish population boom although it seems a bit less likely to account for M222's expansion.

...

Keep in mind that many studies think R-M269 is much older than 4-8K ybp. I don't know of any that say less. Are there?

If you believe the Hammer 4-8K number, you are barely catching the early Neolithic advances that reach all the way back to SW Asia (where ht35 does exist) so you might be inclined to add a little age. The LBK started about 7.6K ybp. but that's from Hungary/Serbia. To go with the Neolithic, R-M269* must have been around earlier than that since it is found in SW Asia. The Neolithic didn't reach SE Europe before 8.5K ybp. If the Neolithic was the first real carrier of R-M269 in to Europe and since R-M269* apparently is from SW Asia and the Neolithic didn't reach Europe before 8.5K ybp, Hammer's ages must be a little young.

To have consistent logic, if one thinks R-M269 was carried with the Neolithic advance then1) Hammer's dates are a little young and2) My projection of R-M222 are a little young therefore2) M222 must have gone from Britain to Ireland (probably BC) rather than from Ireland to Northern Britain - given Alan's view of the archeology.

Agree or disagree?

BTW, I'm not at all committed to the idea that R-M269 was being carried with the Neolithic but I think it is a very reasonable possibility. The way I look at this is we have a couple of different scenarios that are each individual puzzles with only some of the pieces available. The good news we can tell some puzzle pieces fit only fit on certain puzzles so we can keep our puzzle pieces in the right piles for the right puzzles. That's progress.

Mike-one thing to note when you push back well into the BC era is that, unlike the Iron Age, Late Bronze Age Ireland was sensationally rich, advanced and with a large population. Roughly that period is c. 1200BC-700BC (plus or minus a century). If you cross into that period then you are into a completely different ball game. Ireland had a lofty position thorough a major role in the western European Bronze Age metal trade in several phases from 2400-700BC or so. Although the actual ore was only Irish in some phases, Ireland seems to have despite this remained a very important player. There is a long history of Irish metalwork in Britain NW France for instance. In that period it would not be surprising for Ireland to be donating a scattering of genes.

However, there was a real low about 700BC-300BC. This has been shown by analysis of the dates of sites found during rescue archaeology over the last 10 years or so. This seems to have genuinely been a really bad trough. Some think Ireland had an elite systems collapse due to the coming of Iron. I find it hard to see evidence for either intrusion towards or migration from Ireland in that period.

There then seems to have been (modest) recovery c. 300BC-0 throughout Ireland. Again stats relating to rescue excavations imply this. There is also evidence of La Tene input although only in a superficial way - just a modest restricted range of almost entirely stray La Tene metalwork (often peculiarly Irish in form) plus querns but no intrusive burial types,, mainly in the northern two-thirds but also beyond i.e the famous Cork horns. This could perhaps be a horizon for expansion but not a spectacular one.

Then early centuries AD is a strange period. It is also like some sort of dark age but then turns into a unique population explosion to levels never previously known according to pollen diagrams.

I have no idea where M222 fits best but some phases are better than others. The pre-700BC period, perhaps the 300BC-0 period and finally the traditional late Roman dating all at least have some possibility of an expansion reflected by other indicators. I still have no idea why the NW corner of Ireland was the site of an expansion of M222. That probably that still best fits the traditional version. The question for me is that was an expansion but is it the origin?

...[1] Ireland was sensationally rich, advanced and with a large population. Roughly that period is c. 1200BC-700BC ....[2] Ireland had ..... major role in the western European Bronze Age metal trade in several phases from 2400-700BC or so. ...[3] there was a real low about 700BC-300BC.....[4] (modest) recovery c. 300BC-0 throughout Ireland...[5] There is also evidence of La Tene input although only in a superficial way .... could perhaps be a horizon for expansion but not a spectacular one.[6] Then early centuries AD is a strange period. It is also like some sort of dark age but then turns into a unique population explosion to levels never previously known according to pollen diagrams.

Yikes!!! There are lot of phases (puzzle pieces) that cross our very broad TMRCA date ranges.

...[1] Ireland was sensationally rich, advanced and with a large population. Roughly that period is c. 1200BC-700BC ....[2] Ireland had ..... major role in the western European Bronze Age metal trade in several phases from 2400-700BC or so. ...[3] there was a real low about 700BC-300BC.....[4] (modest) recovery c. 300BC-0 throughout Ireland...[5] There is also evidence of La Tene input although only in a superficial way .... could perhaps be a horizon for expansion but not a spectacular one.[6] Then early centuries AD is a strange period. It is also like some sort of dark age but then turns into a unique population explosion to levels never previously known according to pollen diagrams.

Yikes!!! There are lot of phases (puzzle pieces) that cross our very broad TMRCA date ranges.

yep a lot happened in that period. It is interesting that stray artifact and pollen diagram evidence for these ups and down has been confirmed by the radiocarbon dating of sites found through large scale monitoring of the like of roads etc. That provides a sort of random sampling and dating of sites regardless of lack of surface visibility or artifact poverty. These have confirmed and to an extent refined the inferences made from pollen samples in bog cores and other palaeoecological techniques. As you say, the wide date band covers a lot of ups and downs. Having said that, the ups and downs of Ireland may not be so relevant if it turns out that it didnt originate there. Maybe it had a couple of expansions, a smaller one somewhere else followed by a large one in Ireland among the Connachta.

While a number of origins have been suggested for groups like the Laigin, Cruithin etc, there seems to be very little solid for the Connachta. I almost have the impression that the Ui Neill may have been a military grouping in origin rather than a tribe as such. This is only a total stab in the dark but there is a tradition in the Ulster cycle that among the Connachta's most feared warriors were the Fir Domnain and they were later associated with the north-west of Connaught in what I suspect is a retreat position. Is it possible that the Connachta and Ui Neill are really from the Fir Domnain? Is it possible that they were Damnoni from SW Scotland rather than Dumnoni or Leinster Fir Domnain? SW Scotland is the other stronghold of both M222 and it has been said that the pre-M222 group (if such is a valid concept) are concentrated there. Interestingly the only placename in Ireland mentioned n the actual 5th century texts of St. Patrick (his 'Confession' and his 'Letter to Coroticus') is in north Connaught in Tirawley, possibly the place he was held captive (the traditions linking him to Antrim and Down are only known from writings about 200 years later). Add to that that his letterto Coroticus is thought to be to the king of the Scottish Damnoni based in SW Scotland and the main subject of the letter was the raiding of the Irish. This makes up a strange group of links between NW Connaught and SW Scotland, two M222 hotspots.

Of course neither the Damnoni or Dumnoni are on Ptolemy's map of Ireland of the 2nd century AD and the Fir Domnain are also portrayed as a something in the pre-Christian past in Irish sources. That would place any link (and admittedly any such link its totally speculative) in the 3rd or 4th century AD (give or take half a century). Could an offshoot of the Scottish Damnoni perhaps the be the real origin of the Ui Neill and Connachta?

Admittedly, Irish records do not seem to ever make this link in terms of Ui Neill origins. Another flaw in the theory is that it places a settlement of Britons in Ireland at the sort of time when the Roman's are reporting the traffic was very much flowing the other way.