After my column a few months ago regarding Jeff Bezos' now famous (and incredibly profitable) investment into Google in 1998, I was deluged with comments and opinions on this question - was his investment luck or was it foresight?

When Google went public in 2004, that $250,000 investment translated into 3.3 million shares of Google stock. At Google's IPO that represented a stock share position worth over $280 million!

While Bezos does not disclose how many of those shares he still holds, at the current price of Google stock they would represent an investment position of over $1.5 billion.

So was it luck? Or foresight?

In Bezos' words, "There was no business plan. They had a vision. It was a customer-focused point of view." And more tellingly he adds, "I just fell in love with Larry and Sergey."

So whether luck or foresight, this is a wow story of the first order. Lessons learned:

1. Think Long Term. Even though Google has been the fastest rocket ship growth company in the history of capitalism, it was still SIX YEARS from Bezos' investment in the company to liquidity.

2. Get In Early. Sure, it would have been great to get into Google at its IPO price of $85/share, especially as the shares are up over 535% since then. But Bezos got in, after adjusting for stock splits, at EIGHT CENTS PER SHARE!

Talk about leverage. That translates to a 112,000 percent increase from investment to IPO, and then if he held onto the shares for another 535% on top of that.

3. Invest in People. At the time of Bezos' investment, there were a large number of very well-funded and far more successful search engines already on the market. Remember this was 1998 not 1994. Yahoo. Alta Vista. Lycos. Excite. Looksmart. Webcrawler. Infoseek. Inktomi and GoTo to name just a few.

But Bezos was attracted to Page and Brin as people, as technologists, as leaders. And obviously their customer-centric focus really tracked the way that Bezos looks at the world.

4. Take a Shot. For every Jeff Bezos who invested in Google, there are stories of literally dozens of investors that were presented with the opportunity and did not.

This of course does not mean that the probability of any startup having Google-like success is anything but very low, but it does mean that it is far greater than the ZERO percent likelihood of success of those who don't even try.

5. Get Lucky. Yes, luck is a key, and sometimes the key, variable in entrepreneurship and business. As opposed to fighting or getting philosophical re this reality, a far better question to ask is, "How can I improve my likelihood of, for lack of a better turn of phrase, getting lucky?"

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Senior citizens fighting maniacally for their social security, for their Medicare, for their drugs, in the face of crippling federal budget deficits does not equal paying it forward.

Teachers' unions, fighting school choice and merit-based pay does not equal U.S. competitiveness.

And complaining about any/all of the above does NOT equal doing something about it.

No, if you want to help create good jobs for all of those that want them, if you want to insure a better future for our children, then:

Turn OFF the TV.

Turn down the radio.

Put down the newspaper (though you probably have done that already).

And...

Start A Business. That business idea you've been kicking around for years? Well, join the 6 million Americans every year (that's 3% of the adult population) and start a NEW business. In addition to pursuing your dreams, you will also be doing more to create jobs than the government ever will. Why? Because 2 out of 3 of all new jobs are created by new and young (less than 5 years old) firms. Click here to learn more.

Grow A Business. If you own or manage an existing business, go for it. Launch that new product. Offer that new service. Try that new marketing strategy. Implement that new software. Apply for that bank loan. If you don't know how, or need inspiration, read Entrepreneur, Inc. and Fast Company Magazines. This list, too.

Invest IN A Business. Supporting good non-profits is great, but even better is to support entrepreneurs while making excellent money doing so. Startup investing has outperformed every major investing class, with IRRs of over 27.3% (click here to learn more). Compare this to the Dow Jones (returned less than 1% annually these last 10 years), or real estate (2%), or the current cash/money market yield (0.7%).

This Saturday, I took my 2 and 3 year old sons to Toys"R"Us to buy them baseball gloves. A great American tradition to be sure, and with opening day just 2 weeks away, both spring and the national pastime were in the air.

Then thinking practically as a striving parent does, first order of business was to go home and get my boys immediately enrolled in intensive Chinese language instruction because by golly if this is how the world is now then where is it going?

And on this thought I caught myself. I realized I had fallen for the classic mercantilist trap and confused "Made In" with "Value Added."

What's the difference? Well, for you parents reading out there put it this way - none of you I would surmise want their sons and daughters to grow up and work in a factory (though, of course, it is like all work noble and deserving of praise).

But a LOT of you would be VERY happy if your son or daughter went to work as a product designer for Lego.

In marketing or public relations for Mattel.

In corporate finance at Rawlings.

At the NFL league office.

In post-production on the movie Avatar.

As eco-friendly packaging and shipping designers for Toys"R"Us itself.

These Are the Good Old Days

While it is hard for many to accept, it is beyond clear that America is MUCH wealthier today than it was in the so-called good old days when the U.S.A. was the manufacturing capital of the world.

What's The Point?

Very simply, wealth and power in the modern world is NOT about making things. It is about reconceptualizing them.

Apple. Google. Microsoft. In Apple's famous (and grammatically incorrect) advertising campaign, none of these great American companies actually make anything in the strict sense of the term. But they invest lots and lots of time and money in thinking different about them.

To put it another way, modern wealth and power are NOT in the things themselves. They are in their recipes - the instructions of HOW to make them.

And in making new and better recipes, American entrepreneurs lead the way by miles and miles.

And assuming government stays out of their way, they will continue to do so.

The general misery that the public markets have subjected us all to over the past 12 years - with the Dow Jones, the S & P, and the NASDAQ all trading lower today than they were in 1999, begs the question - how does stock market performance affect startup investing returns?

The answer seems obvious. A falling tide sinks all boats. So goes the public markets, so go the private equity markets, of which startup investing is a subset.

This is best illustrated by the depressing statistic that in the last 12 years there has been more money invested into the venture capital industry than has come out of it. A lot of effort for naught.

But in spite of this, and maybe even because of it, startup investing returns over the past decade have been surprisingly, even shockingly good.

According to data compiled by Thomson Financial and corroborated by eight large studies in the US and the UK over the past three years, average returns for startup investing were in excess of 20% annually this past decade, and over a longer 20-year period, have averaged more than 25% annually.

Why Is This and Will It Continue?

If you step back and think about it for a moment, these high returns make perfect sense. Startup investing is high returning because:

1. As Compensation for Illiquidity. As the vast majority of startups are privately-held firms, higher returns must be offered as compensation for illiquidity. You can't day-trade startups as you can public stocks. This, of course, is both a good and a bad thing.

2. As Compensation for High Variance. Startup investing is characterized by a few winners and lots and lots of losers. To incent investors to play this high volatility game, alluring terms and returns must be offered.

3. Small Businesses are Fundamentally More Efficient Allocators of Capital. The plain but powerful truth is that a startup firm is by FAR the most efficient form of human organization ever devised to allocate time and capital.

And with more efficient allocation of time and capital, higher returns naturally follow.

Pablo Picasso

As Picasso so famously said, "Work is the Ultimate Seduction."

And the most seductive form of work for the best and brightest these days is to start and grow a company.

Best illustration of this - in spite of throwing millions at them, Google has a hard time hanging onto their best engineering talent.

The wonder kids just prefer their own gigs. Always have, always will. And anyone who has spent just a little time with a dynamic entrepreneur knows, they're in it to win it.

And when they do, like Picasso's Les Demoiselles d'Avignon, the results just take your breath away.

Because of the overwhelming response to our webinar last week on modern brand lessons from Mr. Tom Hicks of Naked Juice and Dr. Sears Family Essentials fame, Tom has graciously agreed to sit for a live replay of the webinar.

Special Bonus Commentary

The webinar will also feature bonus commentary from Mr. Michael Galef, Former Vice President of Marketing and Sales of Emergen-C, and current Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales for Dr. Sears.

An Entrepreneurial Team We Love

Dr. Sears Family Essentials - a children's natural foods company inspired and branded by the author of one of the best-selling child-rearing books of all time (The Baby Book) - is a classic "doing good while doing well" business model and opportunity.

On the webinar, Tom and Michael will share their secrets of successful, modern brand-building, including:

- The "Pyramid to Brand Growth" - the interplay between brand-building, community-building, retail partnerships, and innovation

- When and When NOT to place your product in the "Big Boxes" - Wal-Mart, Costco, Target

- How to utilize the power of the Internet to quickly and cheaply conduct high-quality consumer research

- How to and how NOT to utilize social networking strategies to build brand and product awareness

- And much, much more!

Who is Tom Hicks?

Tom Hicks is uniquely credentialed to lead this brand-building discussion for the best reason of them all - he has done it before.

Before Dr. Sears, Tom was President of Naked Juice and led their growth from $80 million to $200 million in revenues and a sale to PepsiCo in 2007 for 30 times earnings.

And he was Co-Founder and President of Fantasia Fresh Juice - leading them from startup to $15 million in sales in 3 years. And he is a former sales and marketing executive at both Frito-Lay and Proctor & Gamble.

Quite simply, Tom gets what works and what doesn't work when it comes to launching and growing consumer products brands.

Nothing is more important to U.S. consumers than their entertainment choices, but are movies and broadcast TV even relevant in the new world of entertainment?

Or will the convergence of content, internet, mobile applications, games and social media be the onrushing asteroids that will soon destroy the movie dinosaurs?

Is it a 3-year fad, or will new technologies like 3-D keep going to the movies from being relegated to the dustbin of history like Vaudeville, the afternoon newspaper, the evening news, the variety show, and the compact-disc?

Has the U.S. movie box office - traditionally the holy grail of movie industry metrics -- become increasingly irrelevant?

What is the future of Pay-Per-View/Video-on-Demand (PPV and VOD)?

Video-on-demand alone is estimated to grow from a $1.1 billion dollar business this year to $5 billion by 2012, taking market share away from DVD retailers and intensifying the carriers' ambition to bid for the best (and first run) titles.

How about Internet Video?

Annual U.S. revenues from internet video services spanning user-generated content to television shows and movies will exceed $7 billion this year.

And this business is becoming LESS advertising driven -- transitioning from today's model of more than 85% of revenue being ad-based to less than 60% and trending down with the balance being generated by content payments, either for one-time viewings or via subscriptions.

What do these new realities mean for the content creators of new media and for traditional studios, filmmakers, producers, and distributors?

What is the future for good-old fashioned DVD rentals and sales?

Get The Answers

I am very excited to share with you the opportunity to meet the Managing Director of Growthink's new media and entertainment practice, Mr. Lee Muhl.

Lee, quite simply, has forgotten WAY more about the entertainment business than most of will ever know (see his biography below).

And he has graciously agreed to give us the answers to the above questions, which winning businessmodels to run with, which losers to run from, and much, much more!

To date, Lee has overseen the successful conclusion of more than 100 Growthink engagements for funding plans and sophisticated media financial models, including film projects ranging from the production of numerous independent films and major studio productions to scores of angel and seed development fundings - overall, production funds generated are well in excess of $100MM.

Originally trained in transactional entertainment law and the representation of above-line talent, Lee worked with a number of well-known writer-director-producers in both traditional studio/network deals and in arranging non-studio financing for independent film production including such classics as Bladerunner. In 1999, Lee joined the Silicon Valley new media content contingent as an Internet-company CEO, and has since founded two innovative Los Angeles media companies. With Growthink, Lee has continued his deep involvement with film, digital media, content delivery protocols, gaming technologies and sports initiatives.

A former partner in two leading Los Angeles media law firms, Lee holds a J.D. from the UCLA School of Law where he also served as Chief Comment Editor of the UCLA Law Review, and earned his B.A. in History from UCLA. He is a current member of the California State Bar, and the Hollywood Writers Guild.

As is well-reported, childhood obesity in America is an epidemic. According to multiple studies by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, by the American Diabetes Association, and by the American Academy of Child Psychiatry, close to 33% of American children are now classified as clinically obese.

In addition to the massive additional burden to the U.S. healthcare system this will cause, childhood obesity is a moral crisis. Quite simply, we are letting down the next generation of Americans. And we can and will do better.

And like almost all of the great problems and challenges of the 21st century, the solutions to it will be found not by government nor even by well-meaning non-profits, but by savvy and hard-working entrepreneurs.

An Entrepreneurial Team We Love

Dr. Sears Family Essentials - a children's natural foods company inspired and branded by the author of one of the best-selling child-rearing books of all time (The Baby Book) - is a classic "doing good while doing well" business model and opportunity.

They provide children a foundation of lifelong health via offering exceptional and exceptionally well-marketed functional food and beverages, and supplements.

And guess what? As the company helps more and more kids eat better, it will grow its revenues and profits very, very fast.

This, folks, is the classic entrepreneurial win - win.

Meet the CEO

I am very excited to share with you the opportunity to meet the CEO of Dr. Sears - Mr. Tom Hicks.

Tom is uniquely credentialed to both lead Dr. Sears and to advise on the factors that separate the successful consumer products company from the unsuccessful.

Why? Because he has done it before.

Before Dr. Sears, Tom was President of Naked Juice and led their growth from $80 million to $200 million in revenues and a sale to PepsiCo in 2007 for 30 times earnings.

And he was Co-Founder and President of Fantasia Fresh Juice - leading them from startup to $15 million in sales in 3 years. And he is a former sales and marketing executive at both Frito-Lay and Proctor & Gamble.

Quite simply, Tom gets what works and what doesn't work when it comes to launching and growing consumer products brands.

And we're VERY excited to have him share his wisdom with us regarding:

- When and When NOT to place your product in the "Big Boxes" - Wal-Mart, Costco, Target

- How to utilize the power of the Internet to quickly and cheaply conduct high-quality consumer research

- How to and how NOT to utilize social networking strategies to build brand and product awareness

- And perhaps most excitingly, Tom will share his "pyramid to brand growth" - the interplay between brand-building, community-building, retail partnerships, and innovation

All of these medical device manufacturers had greater than ONE BILLION DOLLARS in sales last year.

Sector Funding Activity Remains Strong

While overall venture investment is down substantially, funding in the medical device sector remains strong.

For the fourth quarter of 2009, venture capital investments into medical device companies increased 13 percent in dollars and 18 percent in deals (quarter over quarter), with over $719 million in fresh capital invested into 87 deals.

Amazingly, investments in biotechnology and medical device companies accounted for 34 percent of all venture capital dollars invested in 2009.

Merger and Acquisition Activity Also Vibrant

Are there exits happening in the sector - even in this tough economy? You bet your life there is.

Sector merger and acquisition activity leaped by 154% in the third quarter of 2009 to $5.6 billion, and the trend-line for 2010 is strong.

Interestingly, this one thing is something you can't live without. At least not for long.

But fortunately, there are some cutting-edge entrepreneurs working wonders on solving the challenges of this one thing.

What is it?

Water.

All around the world water shortages long ago crossed the crisis threshold.

In California. Arizona. New Mexico. Georgia and Florida. The Middle East. China.

Too many years of antiquated public policy, population and economic growth, climate change, and unsustainable agriculture have strained water resources in all of these places to and beyond the breaking point.

The American Entrepreneur to the Rescue

The greater the adversity, the greater the opportunity. And in the dynamic technology landscape of "new water," American entrepreneurs are leading the way.

A select cadre of under-the-radar water startups are developing game-changing technologies to develop, purify, store, convey, and conserve water.

Who Are They?

I would like to invite you to an exclusive opportunity to learn who these startups are and what their technologies do - distributed desalination, reverse osmosis membranes, nanoscale materials and nanoceramics, among others.

And as importantly, we will share who stands to profit from the $6 billion still slated from the federal stimulus package last year for water infrastructure investments.

Never in my lifetime have I seen Americans as mad with the "system" as they are right now.

And never have more Americans agreed on what that "system" is:

1. It is Washington. The "out to lunch and out of touch" tone and policy responses from both Democrats and so-called free market Republicans to the historical economic crisis facing American families and small businesses.

2. It is Wall Street. It is beyond galling that the most highly compensated roles in our economy over the past year have been exactly those people most responsible for the crisis!

Bankers and hedge fund managers.

This just doesn't sit right with anyone, not even the bankers and hedge fund managers themselves!

So what to do?

Neither I nor my Growthink colleagues are ranters nor end-of-worlders. Far from it. Rather, we side with those so eloquently described by the President in his inaugural: "The risk-takers, the doers, the makers of things -- some celebrated, but more often men and women obscure in their labor -- who have carried us up the long, rugged path towards prosperity and freedom."

We call this "Entrepreneurial Capitalism" -- the core ideal that financial rewards should go more to the creators of value and less to the speculators on value.

A strong corollary to this ideal is a wholesale rejection of the nauseating spectacle of pork and favoritism masquerading as fiscal stimulus.

So come on America, we're better than this. Let's start showing it.

Let's incentivize the scientists and the engineers and the operators of successful companies, not bankers and political and union hacks.

Let's offer the 495,000 Americans that start a new business every month tax breaks and credits and regulatory relief.

And most importantly, let's give them REAL ACCESS to capital. In turn:

1. They Will Offer Investors By Far The Best Return on Capital Out There. Over the past 10 years the "entrepreneurial sector" was the ONLY asset class other than gold to outpace inflation, with a 10-year return average greater than 30%.

2. And They Will Save The Country and Save The World. From the brave group of new companies will emerge the "chosen ones" - superstar entrepreneurs that create the "gazelle" growth companies that create the jobs and prosperity to overcome ALL of our economic challenges.

Most entrepreneurs fail to raise
venture capital because they
make a really BIG mistake when
approaching investors. And on
the other hand, the entrepreneurs
who get funding all have one thing
in common. What makes the difference?