During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

ECRI uses a highly nuanced “many-cycles” view to understand the complex dynamics of the global economy.

To monitor the U.S. economy alone, we use an array of more than a dozen specialized leading indexes in the context of the ECRI framework for incorporating various sectors and aspects of the economy.

The ECRI framework covers 21 economies, incorporating well over 100 proprietary indexes designed to be comparable across borders.

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In a Trade War, Size Matters

The full version of this report was released to ECRI clients on Apr 4, 2018 -

Our cyclical research offers nuanced insights into the probable impact of current events, including what is transpiring with global trade. Separately, knowing what movements in trade are likely cyclical, we are better able to discern the structural conditions that make some countries more vulnerable to a trade war.

Right now, with the two largest economies in the world involved in a game of trade-policy brinkmanship, the potential fallout from a trade war is increasingly a matter of concern. This is because most major economies are now much more export-dependent than at the beginning of this century.

Therefore, China and the U.S. are relatively better positioned to deal with the potential damage from a trade war – but still remain vulnerable. And, even though China is less export-dependent than it used to be, the U.S. remains China’s single biggest export destination.

Ultimately, however, the outcome of trade negotiations will have no bearing on the cyclical direction of exports. Instead, the near-term direction of export growth for each country will be determined by the cyclical drivers of exports that constitute ECRI’s leading export indexes, making them even more important to monitor in coming months.