Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Window on Eurasia: Putin Seeking to Downgrade or Even Displace Minsk Group

Paul
Goble

Staunton, August 13 – Vladimir
Putin’s Sochi meeting with the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan did not
bring about any breakthrough toward a resolution of the Karabakh conflict
between the two south Caucasus countries, but it nonetheless had an important
consequence: it is part of a Moscow effort to downgrade or even eliminate the
Minsk Group.

That group, created by the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, was set up in 1992 to
promote a settlement of the Karabakh dispute by finding a combination of the
principles of the territorial integrity of states and the right of nations to
self-determination that Armenia and Azerbaijan could accept.

The group consists of co-chairs, who
at present represent Russia, France, and the United States, has repeatedly
visited the region, promoted confidence-building measures, and been praised for
preventing the conflict from re-igniting into violence since the 1994
ceasefire. But it has not found a solution.

One reason for that is that Armenia
and Azerbaijan base their policies on the competing principles of territorial
integrity and self-determination. A second is that not all the co-chairs have
the same view of what should done or, in the case of the Russian Federation,
whether any solution would be better for its interests than a continuation of
the status quo.

And still a third is the evolving
views of the co-chair countries as to who should be involved in discussions to
find a solution to the conflict.France
and the US support the Minsk Group despite its difficulties and despite the
recent rise in violence because they see it as the best way for reaching a
settlement that would enjoy broad international support.

But for some time, Moscow has been
sending signals that it would like to be the chief intermediary between Yerevan
and Baku, both because that would give it the whip hand in determining outcomes
and because it would reinforce Putin’s vision that Russia can and must be the
dominant power in the post-Soviet space and that other countries must not
interfere.

In a commentary on Politcom.ru,
Sergey Markedonov, a specialist on the Caucasus at the Russian State
Humanitarian University, argues that the new outbreak of violence between
Armenia and Azerbaijan makes the restoration of “the trilateral format” of
Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan essential (politcom.ru/17953.html).

But his statement that “Moscow has
not limited itself to normal solidarity with the other co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group” but is pursuing its own diplomatic efforts in the south Caucasus
may say more about what is going on than even he intends.

On the one hand, Moscow has been
concerned by what it sees as the increasing American involvement in the region,
as reflected in the statements of Ambassador James Warlick, the US Minsk Group
co-chair, and the US role in organizing the last meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani presidents in Vienna in November 2013.

But on the other, as Markedonov
makes clear, Putin has a clear interest in playing on his personal ties with
the two presidents – both of whom have good relations with him, the Moscow
analyst says – to restore Russia’s role in the region not only by promoting
itself but also by limiting the freedom of action of outside powers.

France and the US may not like this
shift, but “2014 is not 2008 or even 2012,” Markedonov says, and “in this case,
the question arises: are the two other co-chairs ready to offer something real
in exchange?”

The
Moscow analyst acknowledges that whatever one thinks about Putin, “the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict does not affect only Russian interests.” The US and
France have interests there as well concerning access to oil and gas and
pipeline roots.

Any “new formats” for talks about
the conflict, Markedonov continues, would inevitably lead to
“unpredictability,” something that he says Moscow does not want. And therefore
is “not interested in a multiplication of geopolitical challenges along Russian
borders.”

“If
the West and especially the US reads the results of the Sochi meeting in a
pragmatic fashion by recognizing that under current realities there are no
other means of stopping the escalation of violence and a complete ‘thawing’ of
the conflict, then the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could play a positive role as a
precedent for other regions in Eurasia.”

However,
he acknowledges, “it is impossible to exclude the strengthening of another
logic in which the strengthening of Russian participation in the peace process
will be considered as an additional challenge and as an occasion for
competition.”

According
to Markedonov, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict “is not an issue about imperial
complexes. This is a sensitive geopolitical knot on the borders of the Russian
Federation. And as a result, it is impossible to limit its actions to those
within the frameworks exclusively of international formats (the Minsk Group).”

The
Moscow analyst argues that Putin’s moves in Sochi do not “contradict” but
represent “a unification of the two approaches.”But in words that suggest he is far from
certain anyone should accept that, he concludes that “the trilateral format
again has turned out to be in demand,” noting that “it is difficult to say
whether it will be effective.”