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NBA Picks

Warriors, Cavaliers ‘Over’ 194 in Game 6 is the NBA Pick

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.

After Game 5 of these NBA Finals failed to go ‘over’ by one-half point due to poor foul shooting, look for the ‘over’ to finally cash Tuesday night when the Golden State Warriors (82-20, 34-16 away) this time pay a visit to the Cleveland Cavaliers (67-34, 38-12 home) for Game 6 from Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, OH at 9:05 ET in a game televised nationally on ABC, with the Warriors leading the series 3-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 194 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -101.

NBA Champion to be Crowned Tonight?
With the Warriors prevailing 104-91 in Game 5 back home in Oakland on Sunday, they have now put themselves in a position to be crowned NBA Champions for the first time since 1975 if they can win in Cleveland tonight, which would be a fitting end for the team that had the best record in the league during the regular season at 67-15 and that now stands at a mind-boggling 82-20 when you include the playoffs!

The Cavaliers would obviously like to force a Game 7 and remember that they once led this series 2-1 after handing the Warriors just their fourth home loss all year in Game 2 and then following that up by being the winning NBA picks here at home in Game 3. And while Golden State’s Stephen Curry was the league MVP, you can never count out the greatest player on the planet LeBron James, especially with his Cavaliers being home underdogs.

Better Free Throw Shooting Should Help the ‘over’
It would be epic to see this series extended to a Game 7, but we are of the belief that the Warriors pull this game out tonight to close the deal. With that being said however, we are not very confident giving the current 4½ points in Cleveland, so we are passing on this Game 6 point spread.

But while we have no opinion on this side, we do have interest in the total as we expect to see the string of ‘unders’ in this series to be snapped at four straight games, fully realizing that the ‘under’ would be 5-0 in these NBA Finals if not for the overtime period back in Game 1. That is because Game 5 Sunday should have gone ‘over’ by all rights as the final outcome was just one-half point shy of the total of 195½ with the Warriors going just 20-for-34 from the foul line!

Now we get a slightly lower total at 194, and we see value in the ‘over’ at that number. After all, a Golden State team that ranked ninth in the NBA in free throw shooting at 76.0 percent during the regular season does not figure to shoot 58.8 percent from the charity stripe again, and other than that, the performance of the Warriors from the field is finally resembling the team we have seen all season since the fourth quarter of Game 3.

Golden State shot a series-best 36-for-75, 48.0 percent in Game 5 including shooting 46.2 percent (12-for-26) from beyond the three-point arc, and Stephen Curry is playing like the MVP again as he scored 37 points and shot 7-for-13, 53.8 percent beyond the arc.

Paging Timofey Mozgov…Paging Timofey Mozgov
King James did his best to keep the Cavaliers in the game Sunday as he has yet another monstrous triple-double with 40 points, 14 rebounds and 11 assists, turning his rather pedestrian 20-point game in an “off” night here in Cleveland in the Game 4 loss into an afterthought. However, James did not have much help in Game 5 and Cleveland Coach David Blatt was roundly criticized after the game for only playing center Timofey Mozgov nine minutes.

Mozgov was held scoreless during his brief time on the court, and that was after actually being the Cavaliers’ leading scorer with 28 points in Game 4 as he had a size advantage with the Warriors electing to go small by starting Andre Iguodala in place of center Andrew Bogut.

If Mozgov plays more minutes here tonight, it would also benefit the ‘over’ in every sense as he should again be able to score vs. smaller defenders provided Warriors’ Coach Steve Kerr continues what has worked well the last two games by playing small, and he would also be a liability defensively vs. quicker players, which was Blatt’s primary excuse for not playing him more on Sunday.

Year-Long Home/Away Splits
Finally, although these teams have obviously been trending ‘under’ throughout these playoffs, the fact remains that if you include the post-season, all Golden State road games are averaging a combined a whopping 206.9 points this year, and although Cleveland home games have been lower scoring averaging 199.5 points, even that figure is 5½ points higher than this posted total.

This has been a terrible series for ‘over’ bettors, but it may finally hit for the first time since the lucky overtime ‘over’ on Game 1 when Golden State visits Cleveland for a Game 6 that could possibly be the final NBA game this season on Tuesday.