Ségolène faces uphill struggle for hearts and minds of France

Last updated at 16:56 23 April 2007

Segolene Royal emerged bruised but unbowed from the first round of the French presidential elections today, vowing to fight on against her Right -wing rival Nicolas Sarkozy who secured a convincing 30.5 per cent of a record poll.

Ms Royal's 25.7 per cent was enough to keep alive her hopes of becoming France's first woman president as she and Sarkozy go head to head in the final vote in two weeks.

A combative Ms Royal relaunched her campaign less than two hours after the first results came through. Smiling broadly, she made an impassioned appeal for voters of the failed candidates to switch to her. "I need you because France needs you", she said in a televised address from her constituency. She pledged to carry on a fight for change "so France can raise itself up once more".

At her Socialist Party headquarters in the Rue de Solferino in Paris more than 2,000 supporters watched the speech on a huge screen. When she said "together, we can bring back the smile to our country", they went wild, chanting "Ségolène, Presidente".

Many were from the MSJ young socialist movement which has solidly backed Ms Royal throughout her campaign. But even as they cheered, a snap poll of voting intentions rushed out by the France 2 network suggested Mr Sarkozy would soundly beat Ms Royal in the run-off.

The poll gave him 54 per cent and Royal 46 per cent. If her team was discouraged, they didn't show it. Ms Royal's spokesman Vince Peillon

said: "We still have everything to play for; Mr Sarkozy's people talked of victory amid persistent rumours that he is already putting together his cabinet".

When he addressed his supporters he seemed unable to suppress a wide grin, although he was magnanimous enough to salute Ms Royal's success in getting through the first round.

Like her, he spoke of "fraternal France" and echoed her theme that he wanted only "to gather together the French people".

But the differences between them are stark. In yesterday's vote there were 12 candidates representing virtually every conceivable political hue.

Now there are two it comes down to a straight choice between Left and Right. The question is, which way will supporters of the failed candidates go?

One surprise was the relatively poor showing of Right-wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen. He had increased his share of the vote from 0.7 per cent in 1974 to 16.86 per cent in 2002 but this time managed only 11 per cent.At 78, his time must now be past, but who will get his votes?

Mr Sarkozy, who seemed to be playing to Le Pen's audience during campaigning, appears the obvious recipient but observers were saying many of Le Pen's followers will simply not vote next time.

While Ms Royal could reasonably expect to pick up votes from supporters of the defeatist Centrist Francois Bayrou who pol led a respectable 18 per cent, it was thought

his share was boosted by those who would lean more naturally to the Right.

Gerard Courtois, editorial director of Le Monde, said Mr Bayrou would resist all pressure to be kingmaker. If he came out for either Ms Royal or Mr Sarkozy, he said, he would throw away all the progress his UDF party had made.

Rather, Mr Courtois said, he would look forward to the next presidential campaign in 2012. "Ségo - c'est fini", a police officer on crowd duty at

her headquarters confided quietly.

He may be right, but she will not go without a fierce fight. Ms Royal, 53, is sometimes called Mitterand's political daughter and she has pledged to pursue traditional policies of the Left.

They include increased state aid for the unemployed (who make up almost 10 per cent of the population) intervention on the part of workers affected by globalisation and a massive campaign against social exclusion.

Mr Sarkozy, 52, says further featherbedding by the state will lead France into deeper economic stagnation, stifling opportunities which - especially for the young - are already few.

During his campaign Mr Sarkozy visited a city where he knew there were 400,000 potential votes - London. He has pointed to Britain as an example of how free market policies and a laissez-faire attitude towards business can bring growth and prosperity.

The French population in Britain, especially London, has grown substantially as workers seek opportunities they cannot find at home, a point he stressed again and again.

For many, his message bears echoes of Thatcherism. He wants to make the 35-hour working week a minimum, rather than a maximum.

He wants to shift the emphasis from employment by the state to a revitalised business sector. He wants to sell social housing to its tenants. Unlike his opponents on the Left, he does not despise what is called the "Anglo Saxon model".

Ms Royal, by contrast, has pledged that her socialism would not reflect that of New Labour across the Channel and she has pointedly

said that she would never bend her knee to George Bush.

The French daily Le Figaro described this election as "France's rendezvous with the future". Indeed, there is a sense that it has to produce a leader capable of delivering real change. France may have trains capable of doing 350 miles an hour, its state of the art aircraft carrier Le Charles-de-Gaulle may be giving impressive support to Nato in Afghanistan and the Parisian cafés are as lively as ever, but the country's self confidence is wobbling.

The lagging economy, high unemployment and volatility of a marginalised, largely immigrant section of the population have made the French nervous.

More than one commentator has described this as an election of competing fears. Those who are afraid of losing the cherished comforts provided by the state will go with Royal; those who are afraid of economic collapse caused by stateist politics would choose Mr Sarkozy.

The sense that this election really matters has gripped France. A record 38 million people voted - a turnout of

84.6 per cent - with long queues at packed polling stations.

The enthusiasm of the electorate has added fervour to a political duel described by Liberation in a headline today as "Le Combat Royal"

For Francois Fillon, Mr Sarkozy's political adviser the record poll was a major achievement in itself. There is already one winner in this election, he said. "Democracy"