Overall shipments from manufacturers to dealers - a key measure of consumer demand - are expected to rise 10 percent in 2012 and could gain an additional 4.5 percent next year, the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association said Tuesday.

A Stockton area dealer said the same holds true for this region.

"Most of the dealers in our immediate area are showing increased sales over last year - just under 10 percent - so that national report seems to coincide with our marketplace," said Nat Jones, general sales manager at Pan Pacific RV Centers, which has stores in French Camp, Sacramento and Morgan Hill.

Through September, shipments were up nearly 11 percent from the same period last year, the industry group said. The higher-than-expected number had dealers, manufacturers and suppliers feeling more optimistic as they gathered last week for an annual industry trade show.

"We made up a lot of ground this year," said Jeffrey Pastore, owner of Hartville RV Center in Ohio. "We're seeing a lot more buyers walking in the door, and we're seeing those buyers with more money in hand."

Sales at his dealership are up about 18 percent so far this year, and he's predicting another 15 percent gain in 2013. It's a big turnaround from 2009, when sales plunged 40 percent amid the country's worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

"It was dreadful," said Tom Stinnett, an RV dealer in southern Indiana. "There were a lot of us wondering if we were going to make it."

Pan Pacific's Jones agreed.

"It's challenging in general. There is business. It's just harder to come by. A customer may make a buying decision over a longer period of time, using the Internet more aggressively," Jones said.

Shipments to dealers slumped to 165,700 units in 2009 from 353,400 in 2007. Weak demand and evaporated credit left dealer lots clogged with RVs and forced the industry to lay off tens of thousands of workers. This year's shipments are expected to be better - hitting 277,300.

Jobs are coming back, too. The industry's work force has risen to 375,000 from less than 250,000 in 2008, according to the RVIA. It's still below the 530,000 from 2007.

Driving the industry's gradual comeback have been less expensive towable RVs attached to pickups or hitched to other vehicles.

Towables, which now account for about 90 percent of the new RV market, cost between $8,000 and $100,000, with an average price of $32,000, according to RVIA. Before the recession hit, towables represented eight out of every 10 new RVs shipped.

By contrast, stand-alone motor homes range in price from $55,000 to $1.5 million for top-of-the-line, bus-like vehicles. The average price is $100,000 for the amenity-filled moving homes.

"It's a given that consumers love to do this, or there would be no market at all because they don't have to have it," Stinnett said. "But they're simply not willing to commit as much money."

KZ RV, based in Shipshewana, Ind., has regained about three-fourths of its pre-recessionary business, but the manufacturer has seen the shift in consumer demand toward towables. Its most popular products cost between $10,000 and $35,000 - well off its top-of-the-line RVs, which run about $90,000, said Andy Baer, the company's vice president of sales.

"Seven years ago, they didn't give a thought to buying a top-of-the-line product, kind of similar to the housing industry," Baer said. "People are more in tune with what the reality is that they can comfortably afford today."

Thetford Corp., which supplies toilets and sinks to RV makers, saw its business plunge 70 percent during the recession. It survived the downturn because RV owners upgraded existing models, Executive Vice President Kevin Phillips said. Now, the company is having a good year as existing RV owners purchase upgrades and entry-level buyers enter the market, he said.

Winnebago Industries Inc., best known for its premium products, also has adjusted to the new market.

The company, with its headquarters in Forest City, Iowa, is rolling out towable products again after a decades-long absence from that market.

And Winnebago has stepped up its presence in the market for entry-level motor homes priced in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. Those vehicles offer fewer features and amenities than their pricier counterparts.

Winnebago's profits soared in its most recent fiscal year, which ended Aug. 25. Winnebago earned $45 million over those 12 months, up from $11.8 million the previous year. Revenue rose 17 percent to $581.7 million.