Monday, September 20, 2010

Window on Eurasia: Despite Risks of Conflict, Moscow Currently Has ‘No Plans’ to Set Up Special Arctic Forces, Russian Official Says

Paul Goble

Staunton, September 20 – Even as one Kremlin advisor predicts a military conflict in the high north later in this century, Moscow’s special representative to the Arctic Council says that “Russia does not intend to militarize the Arctic and create in this region special forces,” although he acknowledged that the Russian government does plan to modernize its existing forces there. Anton Vasilyev, Russian ambassador for special assignments, told a Moscow news conference today that Russia is not making plans to create special force for the Arctic and that “all discussions about the militarization of the Arctic do not have any relationship to reality” (www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=1507564). But he added that “we in fact intend to strengthen the corresponding material part of the forces and the means which correspond to questions of security, above all in order to guarantee the security of shipping,” something that he suggested was for the good of all nations who will use the Arctic route or seek to exploit natural resources on the floor of that sea. Earlier, other Russian officials such as Vladimir Nazarov, the deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, have said that Moscow is “against the militarization of the Arctic region and for ‘the civilized delimitation of this zone,” the paper continued, noting that Russia is concerned about the actions of the United States and Canada in the high north. And last week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated this point when he signed the delimitation agreement with Norway that ends a dispute about sea borders that had become increasingly serious because of efforts by various nations to exploit the natural resources in the area (rusk.ru/newsdata.php?idar=43896). Moreover, Medvedev said, Moscow views with concern all NATO activities in the Arctic. That region, he suggested, “can manage fine without NATO” because “this area is part of our common wealth which does not really have any relation to military objectives” Instead, it should be “a zone of peaceful cooperation” (www.barentsobserver.com/medvedev-the-arctic-is-best-without-nato.4820044-116321.html). But two other developments last week suggest that whatever Moscow may be saying now, it is certainly preparing for a clash in the Arctic at some point in the future and is already prepared to demonstrate its own military capacities vis-à-vis the appearance of ships belonging to the navies of other countries. In a comment published on Ruskline.ru, Yury Kosov, dean of the international relations faculty of the North West Academy of State Service attached to the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, said that “in the middle of the 21st century a war for the Arctic may begin” (ruskline.ru/news_rl/2010/9/17/yurij_kosov_v_seredine_xxi_veka_mozhet_nachatsya_vojna_za_arktiku/). The reasons for this, as he and other analysts are pointing out, lie not only in the absence of an internationally agreed-upon delimitation of the sea bed but also in the increasing ability of corporations and countries to extract resources from the Arctic, something that one Russian analyst has said may make the Arctic “the Persian Gulf” of the future (vlasti.net/news/102768). But the more immediate risks of a clash in the high north were illustrated by an incident news agencies reported on Thursday. After the US Navy frigate USS Taylor made an official visit to the Russian port of Murmansk and had returned to international waters, a Russian patrol aircraft overflew it “with its Bombay doors open” (www.barentsobserver.com/bomb-bay-doors-open-over-u-s-frigate.4819811-116321.html). Nothing more threatening happened and following a US inquiry Moscow gave what Admiral Gary Roughead, the chief of Naval Operations, said was a “satisfying” explanation of the incident. But Western news agencies nonetheless pointed out that “the Russian aircraft” involved is “capable of carrying torpedoes, bombs and depth charges.”

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About Me

Paul Goble is a longtime specialist on ethnic and religious questions in Eurasia. Most recently, he was director of research and publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. Earlier, he served as vice dean for the social sciences and humanities at Audentes University in Tallinn and a senior research associate at the EuroCollege of the University of Tartu in Estonia. While there, he launched the “Window on Eurasia” series. Prior to joining the faculty there in 2004, he served in various capacities in the U.S. State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency and the International Broadcasting Bureau as well as at the Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He writes frequently on ethnic and religious issues and has edited five volumes on ethnicity and religion in the former Soviet space. Trained at Miami University in Ohio and the University of Chicago, he has been decorated by the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for his work in promoting Baltic independence and the withdrawal of Russian forces from those formerly occupied lands. Mr. Goble can be contacted directly at paul.goble@gmail.com