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I have a list of URLs and websites I look at every morning so I can stay on top of what is being discussed about Pitt football. With that I read things I agree with, things I don’t and things that I learn anew… and sometimes things that make me sit up straight and scratch my head.

Yesterday I re-read a piece by Chris Dokish that he had published earlier on in March regarding the Pitt Offensive Line and its possibilities. I like Dokish’s writing, especially when it comes to HS recruiting, but don’t agree with everything he writes. I find that he is overly optimistic when it comes to Pitt football and, as other writers do, tends not to look back at his own predictions to see whether he was correct or not.

That’s fine – as I said, he’s not the only Pitt beat guy to not look back at himself. But here is a squib he wrote in March that is truly puzzling… I emphasized what I thought was his crazy talk.

“Last season’s offensive line was mostly above average, even after losing all-conference players Adam Bisnowaty and Dorian Johnson the year before. And now with early NFL entrant Brian O’Neill, and long time veteran Alex Officer, moving on, every lineman from the very good offensive line of two years ago is now gone, except 6’6″ 315 pound redshirt senior Alex Bookser, who will return to start at guard.”

Now I’m pretty good at taking an even look at what Pitt has today and what they have done in the past and when things turned out well I’ll certainly acknowledge that but I had to spit out my coffee when I read that Pitt had a mostly above average OL last season…

I guess we watched two different offenses out there. Here are the three-year comparisons of key offensive indicators for Pitt since Narduzzi took over:

There is a clear indication that not only wasn’t our OL above average but it wasn’t even close to average nationally. We averaged out at 85th nationally in the offensive rankings…out of 129 teams which put us at 33% – or in the lower third of the nation. The two main OL indicators of Sacks Allowed and TFLs Allowed we averaged 100th or 22%…

In essence it sucked and I’m not sure how anyone can not see that.

OK – that an example of looking back with strongly shaded blue & gold shaded glasses. Here is a case of a local sportswriter looking forward with the same shades on…maybe. I say maybe because the future hasn’t happened yet.

Rival’s Chris Peak is pretty high on the 2018 version of the team and that’s great for him. He’s a pretty optimistic guy all around. But in his latest podcast he said a few things that again made me sit up straight.

First was that he feels our ’18 DEs Weaver and Hendrix will be the ‘best’ DR tandem we have had since Romeus and Sheard (at the 22m 10s mark of the podcast). Allllrighty then!! But for my money any tandem that had Ejuan Price in it – no matter who was opposite him – has a much better chance to be better the any DE tandem with Hendrix in it. That is a minor thought of Peak’s though…

He ramps it up at the 30+ minute mark he talks about what he believes how good this defense can be as relating to the 11 other ACC defenses. I could understand when he waxes on about the defense being better this season that last as I think it will be also. But where I see some major holes that need to be filled – especially on the interior of the DL and that we need much better play from the defensive backfield where we gave up 254 yards per game; 24 TDs and grabbed only nine INTs.

Throw in the DE position with Hendrix into that mix for me also – he hasn’t impressed me one bit since he got here. A starting DE who was 11th on the defensive in total tackles with only 5 TFLs and 3 sacks on the whole season – he started in and played all 12 games – is damn poor.

But Peak is thinking that our whole defense will definitely be in the Top 3rd of the ACC and maybe even one of the Top Three ACC defenses this coming season. That is a very tall order – here is what we were in the ACC last season even with the late games’ D surge:

Rushing Defense – 5th

Scoring Defense – 9th

Total Defense – 9th

Turnovers Gained – 10th

Punt Return Defense – 10th

Passing YPG Defense – 13th

Passing Eff Defense – 13th

Sacks Made- 13th

TFLs Made – 13th

KO Return Defense – 14th

We’ll be better on defense in ’18 guys but I’m not betting mortgage money that we are going to be like night and day from ’17’s defense this coming season. Last year at this time I read much of the same things from other writers and Pitt fans and truth be told our defense wasn’t all that much of a hugh positive leap from 2016 as some thought it would be.

I get the feeling that because of what we did on defense in the VT and Miami games late last November fans feel we are automatically going to pick up exactly where we left off with that – and that isn’t the case always. Rarely does it happen exactly that way actually.

We’ll see what we have after the first three or so games next season – Albany will score against us just as YSU did to the tune of 28 second half points racked up, but Penn State and then Georgia Tech will be our true tests. If our defense can win those games for us – as I fear they will have to in the majority of our games – then I’ll feel pretty good about their progression.

For now though I like what is happening with the D so far but I’m a long way from saying it will be all that much better than what we saw last season – and certainly I’m not projecting them it be in the top three or four in the ACC at this point. Let’s say we’ll average out to the middle of the 14 team ACC pack in defensive categories this season – if so that’s a nice progression all by itself.

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Reed Kohberger
Retired Coast Guard Officer with a lot of time on his hands and working a hobby that he enjoys and is actually free - writing.... on all different sorts of things but mostly Pitt football. You can see my more public articles and essays at WWW.pittblather.com, reedkohberger.wordpress.com and the new Pitt football blog www.pittpov.com.

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92 thoughts on “Perceptions Are Funny Things…”

Hey Reed, you will be happy to know that the one comment to Dokish’s article referenced above was from yours truly.

I do find his writings to be pretty informative (I’m a sponge when it comes to anything Pitt FB and BB), but no doubt that he is way too optimistic. I just try to keep the facts separate from opinion … not only from Dokish but from many sources. We all have our viewpoints.

I agree with sacks allowed because it reflects pass blocking ability. I don’t agree with TFLs. I think the teams avg yards per carry and rank in offensive rushing would be a better indicator of run blocking ability.

I would say that you could make a case that our OL at least average last year based on talent, but certainly well below the bar in terms of performance. In addition to starting a freshman center that was over matched, several linemen actually regressed, most obviously Officer and O’Neill despite playing well in prior years, and this is why I agree that a change needed to be made with the OL coach.

Forecasting defensive performance (or any type of performance) is always tricky and involves lots of variables, but I do agree with Peak’s feel, because I think it makes a lot more sense to base future performance on how last year’s defense improved, given the trend, then it does to peg performance based on overall stats for the year, especially since we didn’t lose much. That said, we changed coordinators and philosophy to some extent, so who knows. I guess I’m just a lot more worried about our offense at this point, and that has nothing to do with the almost meaningless spring game, to me it’s more about solidifying the OL, and finding a playmaker or two. I sure hope Shocky is mature beyond his years…

note that both Officer and O’Neil changed position, and I’m not convinced that O’Neill was 100%.

In 2016, we had on the OL (1) returnees in every position (2) including a 5th year and 4th year starter, and (3) no injuries until the bowl game. (In 09, we were also injury free until the bowl with all returnees)

The soft under belly of this team will be the OL. The Spring game indicated nothing in that regard however, since the OL must operate as a well oiled “unit” to be effective. That “unit” remains to be built & then oiled. We will see.

What the Spring game did show it’s hand on however was the potential that our defense has going into 2018. Last season I predicted a metamorphosis occurring with the D from the 1st game to the last. The YSU game had to go to OT for Pitt to grab the win, then by game 12 our defense was able to close the door on the #2 team in the nation that was vying for a place at the table for the NC playoffs.

The games against Virginia, VT & Miami were the look into the crystal ball at Pitt’s young defense going forward.

If Paris Ford plays anywhere close to the level that Whitehead did as a Freshman this season, then our defense will be good, plenty good enough to keep SUNY Albany from generating many points.

Price was good, eventually, this after spending most of his adult life at Pitt injured or in the Pitt training room getting therapy. Hendrix has the same potential as Price, & this is last go round, let’s hope he realizes that his time is now.

Tom, yet in the midst of all that we gave up 34 points to North Carolina with 270 yards passing and three touchdowns with a 5.7 yyp total average against the team that won only two games earlier… In a home game nonetheless.

And that inconsistency is what worries me about saying that we’re going to take the good results of the last two games over into the next season because sometimes it doesn’t happen that way.

I think we’ll be a better defense but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to give up a lot of yard some games and lose some games we are figuring to win.

It all hinges on the offense this year anyway.

if they’re not consistent at least going 25 points game or even 30 points a game then I think we’re going to have be in for another losing season.

You nailed it. Inconsistency. Young players making mistakes and losing their focus from game to game. Easy to get up for the big ones such as psu, Clemson & Miami, then they lay an egg against UNC, our apparent nemesis.

Me, I’m going to look forward to watching this promising Defense just get better, if they don’t, the potential shown will have gone wasted. Now your last sentence states, “then I think we’re going to be in for another losing season” is just an attitude that expects too little from that potential, IMO. We’ll all see in six months but I’m thinking this team rises to the occasion this year in the ACC and surprises us.

IF Pickett stays healthy and the OL can play its top 7 players for the entire season we have a shot at contending for the Coastal Division title in our last game with Miami. Maybe that even prediction is one up on Peak’s assessment.

Last years OL was a major disappointment in 16 and even more reason to be concerned. It took 6-7 games to settle in starters last year and we had no serious injuries other than BOs shoulder being on the mend/ weaker… that is an issue with coaching IMO. Peterson is gone.. Ming is in the batter’s box.

Kritofek’s Dad – a Pitt Panther…. Kritofek’s HC is a Pitt Panther… should be a gimme but it ain’t……

That’s the key. Taking (and staying on) the field for the season. No major injuries or suspensions. I hope that it happens. Plus, I think the new D-coordinator has the chutzpah to question HCPN’s scheme and adjust if it’s not working. But, we will have to wait and see.

It’s hard to argue that last years O-Line looked under-par last year. We could say the same thing about the WR’s and RB’s. How about the entire offense? Does a weak offense help or hurt the defense and perhaps the entire football team as a whole? I’m not going to say all of the PITT football problems revolved around the dismal play last year but it was a major factor. To borrow NRS’s handle, it’s not rocket science. Bad play at the QB position can help make an entire team look inept.

I can see Reed running his hands through his thinning hair mumbling to himself, there goes ike again. Last year was indeed a big disappointment. Nuff said about that.

I don’t agree on the perception that Hendrix has been a HUGH disappointment. I did see him put as much pressure on the opposing QB’s as anyone on the team. Of course almost doesn’t count in the stat book even though I did see effort from him. This just in, he didn’t play more than 50% of the snaps on defense last year. I believe he’s all set to have a good year. Don’t forget what Weaver can do will open up opportunities for the entire defense.

Trying to squeeze this comment in (busy) but I’m more and more thinking this defense will be borderline great. …but it takes a team to make each unit play up to expectations. ike

While I’m not the pessimist that Reed is, I also think that the Pitt coaches are overselling this team. Why should anyone believe that Hendrix will suddenly emerge as a top DE? Is Millin really going to be the savior of the OL? Can Ford step in at Whitehead’s Freshman performance level? Will any WRs or TEs catch a football this year? There are so many question marks with this team, that even ike must have some reservations.

If the D is finally average, Pitt will be overall mediocre this year…6 wins, crappy bowel.
If Pitt’s D takes a huge leap, we could see 8-9 wins
Pitt’s D will be better, but by what degree

The O will maintain status quo or take a step back unless the line somehow gels and if some playmakers emerge. It’s Kenny’s first full year as starter. He has a below average line and no playmakers or go to guys. I fear he will be running for his life. He needs a running back that doesnt need a good line for holes. He needs either a TE or WR that can save him when in trouble. I just dont see it happening right now…right now.

I do think the pieces are in place for a 10-11 win season in 2019. Ceiling is 9 wins this year but I could also see a floor of just 4 (particularly if Kenny loses confidence, gets hurt, line doesnt gel, no playmakers emerge, the D is just average, and coaches blow a game).

I see the basketball team winning more ACC games than the football team. Think about that.

Good article Reed. I always prefer to get a scouting report from a realist instead of a cheerleader which I think both Dokish and Peak are, and I go back to your scouting report on Browne last year as proof of that as the only one telling it like he saw it in practice.

Funny you bring up Dokish as overly optimistic and looking through strongly shaded blue & gold shaded glasses, I wrote the exact same thing about him in February of 2017 after reading an article of his in the Panther’s Prey blog.

Reed, after reviewing that comparison table it is really clear what a total step backwards 2017 was from the previous 2 years. It was really a complete disaster from a statistical standpoint. The question is: did the players under perform, or was there just a shortage of talent on the team. i.e. was it coaching or recruiting?

I think that Peterson was not a very good teacher of young OL players so none really developed under him. We fans think OL HAVE to he upperclassmen but that isn’t always the case if the talent is there.

But here at Pitt we have had a lot of underclass OL play and play well as starters – O’Neil, Bookser, Bisnowaty, Johnson, Rowell and Rotherham are just off the top of my head guys who lately have started as rs FR and rs SOs and did very well.

Because of that lack of good coaching Narduzzi and Borley are scrambling around to fill glaring gaps with immediate transfers from MAC, Juco and CC schools to be starters this season. rsJR Pilato, rsSO Morgan and rsSO Ford may not even be in the two deep this year but had they talent and been taught well we could, and should, be playing them over transfers

Last year Officer and JJS were average at best talents but when they played earlier they were surrounded by very good supporting OL cast members – which they didn’t have save Bookser in ’17.

Also having a new OC in Watson didn’t help the OL and he scrapped a lot of the wide open offense Canada had used to success and relied on more conservative runs into the LOS as opposed to sweeps and WR carries:

In 2016 we had WRs & DBs carry the ball a total of 102 times but in 2017 that dropped to only 53 carries even though our total carries per games weren’t that much different with ’16 having 41.7 carries per game and ’17 having 38.3.. So last year we were running into the line a lot more with lesser OL players and it show in our rather poor running game.

Quick slants from the slot receivers, shovel passes, quick hitters with, ya get this, the fullback. No jet sweeps, quick pitches, deep patterns, or double moves. The Oline will be porous but better than Reed thinks ( not by much, but better). The defense will be better( but not as good as Ike thinks). Let’s wait and see. So many things could cause this team to tank, and everything has to go almost perfect for them to succeed. Razor thin margin for error, in my opinion.

I received a call late last night that my amazing and loving 102 year old aunt down in North Carolina is about to pass on… She is the last of my family’s relatives (my Dad’s older sister) and a proud Pitt grad of 1937 and then Pitt’s grad school in ’39.

She served as a Commander in Naval Intelligence during WW2 (married another Commander) and was a true role model for me, especially after my parents died when I was a young boy. She and her husband were big reasons why I had a military career of my own.

I’ll be delivering an eulogy for her and will mention her love of the university and going to the football games in Pitt Stadium which she has always said were some of her best memories of living in Pittsburgh.

Truly a real “Pitt Women” in every sense of the word…

So, I might be off the POV for however long it takes for services, etc and I’ll ask you guys now to think about writing down some articles in my absence.

Brian Batko@BrianBatko
Per 247, Marcus Carr is definitely transferring from Pitt, and focused on Marquette, Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State (which just got a sit-out PG from the ACC in Florida State’s C.J. Walker).

Emel, you may be right about Carr, but I thought he had a lot of raw talent especially offensively and felt it was tough to judge in terms of turnovers because of the lack of players around him and the lack of an offensive system he played in (unless you count whipping the ball around the perimeter until the first open guy can fire up a 3 as a system). It did seem pretty clear that he was a really poor defender though, which surprises me because I felt he was a good athlete. The one thing I always remember about Carr was his iffy reaction after his first meeting with Capel; this has always led me to believe that Capel must’ve either been very non commital about his prospects at Pitt, or that Capel saw him more as a SG (for example) and Carr wanted to play point, but something seemed out of sorts ever since that meeting based on the little info. available.

Oh you could be right 1618mt. I don’t know more than anyone else whether he would have blossomed or not. I guess I might mean, he can be replaced…. one would think. Can we find someone to shoot better than 32 FG% & 23 from 3…..in games that mean something. I would think but again who knows.

and speaking about the athletic dept spending more money, there is this excerpt about recruiting a 2019 4-star:

And what we’re seeing from the process so far is a coaching staff that is beating down the doors in recruiting. Capel is hitting the recruiting trail hard, emphasizing New York City this week – which definitely caught the attention of people in and around NYC hoops – but also going above and beyond to establish Pitt as a presence on the recruiting scene.

Like sending his assistant coach to Ireland.

That’s right: Capel sent O’Toole to Dublin on Wednesday to visit with Igiehon’s mother. I still can’t get over that story, and there are a lot of angles to consider. For starters, think about the cost; we talk about recruiting budgets and the University’s commitment to athletics, but they just spent a decent chunk to send a coach across the Atlantic for a one-day visit with the mother of a junior prospect.

Reed, sorry about your loss. She certainly witnessed a lot of changes/history during her years. Prayers for safe travel to and from the “The Old North State.”

I would think a current Pitt competitive basketball player with D1 talent would want to play for Jeff Capel…maybe in their perspective discussions with coach they saw they couldn’t measure-up ..

There was a story in my home-town that my Granddad and his cousin suited up for a Pitt basketball game in the early part of the 20th century. As the story goes Pitt didn’t have enough players ti field a team on this particular day and Grandpap and Uncle Bill just happened to be where-ever Pitt was playing. They were invited to join in for the game ]. Now I can’t verify that but it makes a helluva good story.

Carr leaving creates a problem and an opportunity. Capel must now get a PG, as there are none on the roster, however, it creates an opportunity to balance out the recruiting classes. Let’s see what he can come up with. Unless he had a PG he knew was coming I can’t see him pushing Carr out, even if he eventually would be recruited over.

Not suggesting the O-Line didn’t struggle last year but Reeds above graphic above tells many stories. Just like statistics normally do. We were warned ahead of time that Max was and probably still is a human statue. Remembering the fair warning we all received it seems strange not to include MB in discussions concerning the sack, running game and passing game totals. You guys can figure out what I’m saying. Yes the O-Line didn’t seem to play all that well but it’s the bigger picture we have to look at.

… and BTW, PITT finished 3 spots higher last year than the previous year with the great offense lead by Nate in passing yards per game and tied for tenth in the ACC. Think about how stats don’t always tell the whole story. << They aren’t meant for sports when passing judgements. They leave out way to many variables.

That’s one crazy story about Capel sending an asst coach over to Dublin to talk with a recruits mother. I spoke of changes when Gallagher was hired and I’ve watched them develop with my own eyes. They are real. Impatience is not a virtue, what happen twenty years ago is irrelevant to me.

PITT has 3 games that coincide with the landlords called the Steelers and they are all 1:00 pm starts for the Steelers. GT, Syracuse, and Duke. Set your alarms early accordingly.

Heather has hired five new head coaches in her first year. Are they good hires?? Got me but we can’t say she doesn’t have the balls to think outside of the PITT box. << You know, not like the old ways and days! ike

I disagree and of course I go back to the 2014 Pitt team that was ranked 34th on defense. They played one team that finished ranked and gave up 56 points and 612 yards. (So there are stats to counteract your stats)

The churn associated with changing head coaches is on full display at Pitt. Still, I feel so much more optimistic with Capel (vs. Stallings). All the little things Capel is doing to insinuate himself into Pittsburgh sports life compared to Stallings’ haughty, disdainful attitude is a PR masterpiece. One has to believe this will translate into recruiting success as well. The question is whether he can pull a rabbit out of the hat this year. Most top players are already committed for 2018 (in fact, over half already have signed). Can he schmooze one or two to renounce an existing commitment or, for the very few who are still uncommitted, get one to agree to board the Pitt train? So little time left for this year… I’m keeping my fingers crossed. My concern is he doesn’t get any big name to come this year and the team ends up barely better than last year which then impacts his ability to recruit for 19/20 (as some may begin to doubt his head coaching credibility)…

First off Reed, there will never be a day you convince me that statistics are the only real “truths” in sports. For statistics to be telling the truth they need to be static. Sports are very far from consistent.

Dinucci not a statue? No, he ran around like he was looking for a place to lay down. Neither one of those two QB’s could see downfield to pass the ball. You know, like a QB is supposed to. Dinucci was sacked 2 more times then Max in two less games.