Advantage Ryan

Despite the lasting impact of Bentsen’s verbal decimation of Quayle in that 1988 debate, Bentsen and his running mate, Michael Dukakis, were overwhelmed in both the popular and electoral vote the next month.

Four years later, the vice presidential debate had far less lasting impact. The 1992 cycle is perhaps best remembered as the last time third-party or independent candidates were permitted by the two major parties to participate in the debates. Independent candidate Ross Perot fared well in his debates against incumbent George H.W. Bush and the eventual winner, Bill Clinton. However, Perot’s running made, retired Navy Admiral and Medal of Honor winner James Stockdale, fared decidedly less well. Stockdale was so painfully and obviously in over his head during his debate with Al Gore and Quayle, that his “15 minutes of fame” on October 13, 1992 did little more than propel him from obscurity to oblivion.

The most recent vice presidential debate – between Biden and Palin in 2008 – is best known for its lack of substance (the word “Constitution” was used only once, and then only in passing). The most memorable exchange was Palin’s opening gambit to call her Democrat opponent “Joe.” The debate never really progressed beyond that.

It is not likely the upcoming Biden-Ryan bout will suffer the same fate as these predecessors. Both candidates are energetic and experienced public speakers. While Ryan is clearly the younger of the two, Biden has been successful in projecting an image of energy and vitality. And, even though Ryan often is labeled a “policy wonk” because of his well-known love for and understanding of complex economic and budgetary programs, he has consistently demonstrated an ability to reach out to voters from across the demographic and educational spectra.

Biden has never been confused with being an intellectual or a “wonk.” Still, when not tripping over an ill-timed or poorly-considered one-liner, the Vice President has exhibited remarkable staying power over a lengthy career, and still carries strong appeal with traditional Democratic Party voter blocs.

The real difference in this vice presidential debate, however, will be the deep reservoir of Ryan’s knowledge of domestic budgetary, tax and entitlement programs; versus Biden’s broad but shallow familiarity with federal policies and programs. Importantly, Biden’s words often outpace his thoughts – a defect not exhibited by Ryan.

Biden may be an experienced puncher in the ring, but Ryan’s more methodical and strategically-designed style gives him a significant advantage. In the end, while Biden almost certainly will not put his Party’s core constituencies into apoplectic fits like President Obama did with his lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, his shallow grasp of the issues and his cavalier, almost condescending attitude, will prevent him from reaching those all-important undecided voters. Undecided and independent voters are much more likely to be swayed by Ryan’s substance and sincerity.