Lyons says Kempin opined to him that “Insiders say the guy has not done anything impressive at all. So he will struggle getting attention and respect.” A one-time intimate of Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer, Kempin also feels the two former CEOs' presence on Microsoft's board will be disruptive because their influence runs deep. Conflict, he feels, is certain.

Kempin has argued that Microsoft needs to divest itself of some businesses in order to grow, but feels Nadella won't adopt his strategy.

“His stated goal is to bring innovation faster to market,” he said. “No track record there either. The best way to do that is to sell some parts of the company and get rid of a lot of fat. He won’t do that either.”

Kempin left the Microsoft glasshouse in 2002, so any stones he throws can't hurt him now that he's on the outside. And Nadella? He's well-shielded for now by a big buffer of euphoric honeymoon optimism. Once he wakes up next to the real Microsoft, Kempin's perspective might seem useful. ®