Analysis on Minnesota, Colorado, and Senate Rankings

The picture in 2008 looks much rosier for Democrats. Democrats will only be defending 12 seats while Republicans will be defending 21. Moreover, many of the seats Republicans are defending are those which have only been held by Republicans for one term - which means those legislators will not have the benefits of long-term incumbency to run on.

One such seat exists right here in Minnesota where first-term Republican incumbent Norman Coleman is looking to defend his Senate seat in an increasingly hostile environment. Given the shellacking Republican Mark Kennedy took in the 2006 Senate race, Coleman has a right to be worried about maintaining his seat. However, in addition to the recent election results, Coleman has other, more personal, reasons to worry about maintaining his seat. Of the 21 Republican Senate seats up for re-election in 2008, Coleman has the fifth-lowest approval rating. Moreover, in this same category, Coleman is one of only five Senators who has an approval rating below 50 percent.

Colorado: The Rocky Mountain News offers insight into Republican Wayne Allard's thought process on a re-election run. RMN also reminds us that when Allard was first elected in 1996, he pledged to only serve two terms - a run in 2008 would break that self-imposed term limit promise. Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report calls likely Democratic candidate U.S. Rep. Mark Udall "the strongest candidate [Allard] has ever faced." Should Allard retire, suggested Republican stand-ins mentioned were soon-to-be-former Governor Bill Owens (who may be considering a Presidential bid as well), U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo (also considering a Presidential bid), and former U.S. Reps. Scott McInnis and Bob Schaffer.

Finally, X Stryker at Swing State Project offers his analysis of the recent SUSA Senate rankings.