On Friday, February 23, in the euro auction ended with a slight decline. The market comes after a volatile day and price fluctuations within 90 pips (4 digits after the decimal point), when the US regulator has published the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC. He raised optimism about the US economy and a further rise in interest rates. The euro closed at 1.2293.

Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 10:00 UK will release the house price index from Nationwide for February.

At 12:30 Britain will declare a change of approved applications for mortgage loans on the BBA figures for January.

At 16:30 the US will present the economic activity index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in January.

At 18:00 the US will publish data on sales of new buildings in January.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView

During vacation, I have not followed the macroeconomic developments of the EU and the United States, so today focused on technical analysis.

In Asia, the euro rebounded from 1.2280 to 1.2319. Judging by the news, the weakening dollar has caused the speech of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda. Nothing new, he said. He reiterated that it is necessary by all means to seek an inflation rate of 2%, so the Central Bank will adhere to ultra-accommodative policy.

In the morning I wanted to see the euro main scenario for the decline. As a result, I made the strengthening of the single currency. Influenced my choice: a negative attitude to the dollar in Asia, the strengthening of the euro in cycles on 1H, reduction US10Y, as well as finding a price about the daily trend line.

At this stage of growth 1.2360 EURUSD above do not consider for several reasons. First, traders and investors are waiting for the first performances of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to Congress this week. It is not known what the reaction would be and what he would say on monetary policy. The first performance is very important for the market.

Second, the negative impact of the euro will provide the upcoming parliamentary elections in Italy, which will be held March 4. On the same day will be held in an internal vote of the Social Democratic Party in Germany to create a coalition with Angela Merkel.

The price may fall to resume at any time. Monday objective of the Euro - 1.2348.