There has been immense change in both human and environmental conditions over the past 30 years. In an unprecedented period of population increase, the environment has been heavily drawn upon to meet a multiplicity of human needs. In many areas, the state of the environment is much more fragile and degraded than it was in 1972. The result is that the world can now be categorized by four major divides:

The Environmental Divide — characterized by a stable or improved environment in some regions, for example Europe and North America, and a degraded environment in the other regions, mostly the developing countries.

The Lifestyle Divide — partly a result of growing poverty and of affluence. One side of the lifestyle divide is characterized by excesses of consumption by the minority one-fifth of the world population, which is responsible for close to 90 per cent of total personal consumption; the other side by extreme poverty where 1.2 billion live on less than US per day.

Markets first: Most of the world adopts the values and expectations prevailing in today's industrialized countries. The wealth of nations and the optimal play of market forces dominate social and political agendas. Trust is placed in further globalization and liberalization to enhance corporate wealth, create new enterprises and livelihoods, and so help people and communities to afford to insure against — or pay to fix — social and environmental problems. Ethical investors, together with citizen and consumer groups, try to exercise growing corrective influence but are undermined by economic imperatives. The powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers to regulate society, economy and the environment continue to be overwhelmed by expanding demands.

Policy first:Decisive initiatives are taken by governments in an attempt to reach specific social and environmental goals. A coordinated proenvironment and anti-poverty drive balances the momentum for economic development at any cost. Environmental and socialcosts and gains are factored into policy measures, regulatory frameworks and planning processes. All these are reinforced by fiscal levers or incentives such as carbon taxes and tax breaks. International `soft law' treaties and binding instruments affecting environment and development are integrated into unified blueprints and their status in law is upgraded, though fresh provision is made for open consultation processes to allow for regional and local variants.

Security first:This scenario assumes a world of striking disparities where inequality and conflict prevail. Socio-economic and environmental stresses give rise to waves of protest and counteraction. As such troubles become increasingly prevalent, the more powerful and wealthy groups focus on self-protection, creating enclaves akin to the present day `gated communities'. Such islands of advantage provide a degree of enhanced security and economic benefits for dependent communities in their immediate surroundings but they exclude the disadvantaged mass of outsiders. Welfare and regulatory services fall into disuse but market forces continue to operate outside the walls.

Sustainability first:A new environment and development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. A more visionary state of affairs prevails, where radical shifts in the way people interact with one another and with the world around them stimulate and support sustainable policy measures and accountable corporate behaviour. There is much fuller collaboration between governments, citizens and other stakeholder groups in decision-making on issues of close common concern. A consensus is reached on what needs to be done to satisfy basic needs and realize personal goals without beggaring others or spoiling the outlook for posterity.

(...) The final section of GEO-3 presents possible policy options for the future based on UNEP experience, the GEO-3 assessment and wide consultations at different levels. The suggestions are intended as a check-list from which to make appropriate selections for action. The overriding need in policy development is for a balanced approach towards sustainable development. From the environment perspective, this means bringing the environment in from the margins to the heart of development. The fields where action is suggested cover the need to:

Rethink environmental institutions because they need to adapt to new roles and partnerships to fulfil present obligations and confront emerging environmental challenges.

Strengthen the policy cycle so that it becomes more rigorous, systematic, integrated and able to develop policies that are better attuned to specific localities and situations.

Provide an enhanced international policy framework to overcome the fragmentation and duplication inherent in the present system.

Use trade more effectively for the benefit of sustainable development to capitalize on the new opportunities provided by trade liberalization.

Harness technology for the environment and manage the associated risks to maximize the potential of new technologies to deliver substantial environmental and social gains.

Adjust and coordinate policy instruments, including various legal frameworks, and measures such as valuing environmental goods and services, ensuring that markets work for sustainable development and promoting voluntary initiatives, to develop appropriate packages that work more effectively for the environment.

Monitor policy performance with the aim of improving levels of implementation, enforcement and compliance.

Re-define and share roles and responsibilities between local, regional and global levels to provide efficient solutions to managing complex and varied situations at a variety of scales.)