Euro Exchange Rate Forecast – April 2013

By Tom Higham

15th April, 2013

Bailout Loans Extended – EUR Exchange Rates

It has been confirmed that both Portugal and Ireland have been given an additional 7 years to re-pay their bailout loans. Considering the two countries only received their loans in 2010 and 2011 respectively it highlights just how difficult these struggling economies are finding paying back their loans as they need an extension after only a couple of years of first having the deal agreed. To me this also raises the question whether the bailout deals will be extended again and if the Cyprus deal which looks like it is going to be approved shortly will be extended after a few years of repayments. When these bailout deals are created we are told just how strict the terms are and how much needs to be saved or raised through austerity measures and yet the terms are then amended a couple of years later making a bailout considerably better for that country. While this may be good for the country in question and in the long term may help the Eurozone and therefore the EUR it does set a precedence for other countries who may now believe asking for a bailout is that little bit more appealing. How long can this bottomless pit of EU money last? Can the ECB continue to keep bailing out their member states?

These questions are likely to remain unanswered for some time and so I believe we are likely to see a lot of volatility for GBP/EUR exchange rates while these issues continue to persist. So, if you need to buy EUR and you would like to be kept informed of all the latest news make sure you speak to one of the knowledgeable currency brokers at Foreign Currency Direct plc who will be happy to act as your eyes and ears on the market.

AUD and NZD suffer as Chinese Economy Slows

It was announced that the world’s second largest economy, China did not meet the predicted growth figures set. Over the first quarter of this year China’s growth was 7.7% compared to a predicted figure of 8% and because of this slightly lower figure the Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have weakened. Both these countries, especially Australia are directly impacted by the success or otherwise of the Chinese economy as China is the largest importer of Australian raw materials such as iron ore. This means when China’s economy slows down the prospects for Australia and New Zealand are reduced and their currency can weaken. Despite this the fact that the Chinese economy is growing at 7.7% shows just how well they are performing even if they are not quite hitting their forecasted figures and as a result both the AUD and NZD have continually got very strong especially against the Pound hitting some of the lowest levels we have ever seen. While the Chinese economy continues to grow and expand it is likely we could see both Australia and New Zealand’s currencies strengthen further. This could mean that if you need to buy AUD or buy NZD then it may be worth speaking with one of our experienced currency brokers today to discuss the options available to you.

If you need to transfer money overseas and you are looking for great exchange rates speak with our friendly currency brokers who will be happy to discuss your currency requirements and the options available to you. You can call straight through to our dealing floor on 01494 849752 or alternatively email me on trh@currencies.co.uk

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