The Ohtani Fit in Chicago

That Shohei Ohtani would change the structure of the Cubs' rotation is obvious, and whatever he might add on offense would really be gravy. The Cubs are surprise finalists in the Ohtani sweepstakes, and despite some valid strikes against their case, there are also plenty of reasons why he would fit nicely with the Cubs.

There is, of course, the fact that he would readily join an already very talented stable of starters and give them the necessary fourth member of the rotation that all postseason teams need. There's also the fact that, despite a fleet of outfielders already on the roster, Ohtani could spend ample time in the lineup on the days when he is not pitching. For as much of an asset as he is on defense, Jason Heyward probably isn't a must-start anymore, so right field could be an easy place for Ohtani to play in between starts on the mound. Otherwise, Joe Maddon has proven that he is not flustered by the task of rotating a large group of talented players into the lineup.

But the Cubs are not unique in this. Of the seven teams Ohtani has left on his list, they are just one making the same claims about letting him play both ways. Doubtless the other six teams have told him a lot of the same things that the Cubs did.

Even last night, as the Mariners and Angels both made trades with the Twins to free up more international slot money to sweeten a potential signing bonus for Ohtani, those efforts seemed potentially in vain:

If it's not only the money, then geography makes sense as a possible factor. Coming from Japan, the distances traveled grow considerably in the United States, especially in the AL West. Travis Sawchik suggested yesterday that this works in favor of the Cubs, who have some of the shortest travel distances in the NL Central.

But what great advantage do the Cubs really have? It's unquestionably been a surprise for the Cubs to have made it this far in this process, and a lot of that is simply a testament to Theo Epstein's ability to sell players on joining the Cubs, something he was able to do successfully even before they were World Series champions. Consider his success in bringing Jon Lester to Chicago prior to the 2015 season. The wearer of 2007 and 2013 World Series rings thanks to the Red Sox had just spent a half season in Oakland in Billy Beane's latest attempt to eclipse the limitations of being the general manager of the Athletics. Lester was hardly ready to suffer fools and a return to Boston would have made a lot of sense at the time, instead of the team that had just lost 89 games and was still just pimping its rebuild. But Epstein convinced him, and a year later he convinced Heyward to leave the Cardinals right after they had won 100 games and the division.

The greatest selling point for Ohtani, who clearly values more than just being a star and making the most money possible, seems to have a lot to do with the culture of the team he is joining. And this is something the new ownership and front office have heavily invested in, and it has paid off already. The appeal for Ohtani is not quite the same as Lester in late 2014, but he has the opportunity to be one of the final pieces in what makes the Cubs a dynasty.

Ohtani is just 23, and the Cubs are still plenty young, especially on offense, but he has a maturity that belies his years, and it probably helps us to understand why he was not immediately swayed by the opportunity to play for a team like the Yankees and just take the largest contract in the largest market.

Take a look at the list of goals he made while he was still in high school:

-Age 18: Join an MLB team

-Age 19: Master English and reach AAA

-Age 20: Called up to the Majors, make 1.5 billion JPY (~13 million USD)

-Age 21: Starting rotation, 16 wins

-Age 22: Win the Cy Young Award

-Age 23: Member of Japan WBC team

-Age 24: Throw a no-hitter and 25 wins

-Age 25: Throw fastest pitch in the world 175 kph (~108 mph)

-Age 26: Win the World Series and get married

-Age 27: Member of Japan WBC team & MVP

-Age 28: 1st son is born

-Age 29: Throw 2nd no-hitter

-Age 30: Get most wins by a Japanese pitcher (in 1 MLB season?)

-Age 31: 1st daughter is born

-Age 32: Win 2nd World Series

-Age 33: 2nd son is born

-Age 34: Win 3rd World Series

-Age 35: Member of Japan WBC team

-Age 36: Break the strikeout record?

-Age 37: 1st son starts baseball

-Age 38: Stats drop, start to think about retirement

-Age 39: Decide to retire at end of next season

-Age 40: Throw no-hitter in my very last game

-Age 41: Return to Japan

-Age 42: Introduce the American system to Japan?

The Cubs are easily a good fit to help him realize some of this, but what's probably more important is that it helps to indicate that Ohtani is looking for more from his career playing baseball in the United States than simply making himself a star and cashing in on a large contract as soon as possible. If he's most interested in a comfortable fit, quality culture, and winning the World Series, the Cubs are a fantastic landing spot.

The drought may have already ended, but Ohtani can be the last cog in fully revolutionizing the franchise.

Comments

I don’t believe Ohtani being interested in the Cubs is a surprised at all. If he waited until he could sign a $200MM deal, then i would agree with you. However he came when he could make the least amount of money. For organization and baseball reasons at the top of the list I­t­ is no wonder the Cubs are a handful of teams he would consider. We have the best organization in baseball, IMO. And we are attractive from the FO to the players to the facilities.

The Cubs could lose him to baseball reasons. They are a contending club that can't afford to experiment with him hitting and pitching like a non contending team like the Padres. You can't bench better hitters to make him happy and letting him learn at the major league level could be painful. You also can't change a rotation to accommodate him.

I hope as much as anyone he signs and while many of us wouldn't sign with some of the other options he clearly has a mind of own as shown by his leaving 200+ million on the table coming to the big leagues now. While I hope this isn't the case I think what wait til next years getting at is the Cubs have arguably the deepest group of position players in the league. If otani struggles to adjust to big league pitching he'd likely get much more leeway to continue to get consistent abs with sea or SD rather than the Cubs. Frankly that may very well be why those teams are indeed favorites. i personally think nobody has any clue what he's thinking but it's definitely a plausible viewpoint. I just hope if he doesn't sign here he goes to one of the aforementioned clubs

Do you think he believes he will struggle and have the need for consistent at bats? Read his goals again. He believes in his mind he is going to be one of the all time greats. And wants to WIN.

I can’t see him saying “the Cubs have too many OF that are way better than me, so if I flame out on the mound and post 5.50 ERA’s I need to go to Sea and/or SD to play for last place or nearly last place teams so I can get my at bats.”

SF, TEX, and the Cubs are the final 3, IMO. I think Nomo and Darvish having played in LA hurt their chances as he wants to have his own legacy not taking away from Japanese players. I really do not believe LAA, SD, or SEA will be his choice. I could be reading I­t­ wrong too and maybe he does prefer those places, but they fail in his criteria listed and would not align with his career aspirations. Just how I am interpreting what he put out there.

Just from what I've read this guys a true #1 ace on the mound that's where he has more value and I think he knows teams would probably prefer he sticks to pitching exclusively just to keep his body fresh and allow his to work to master his pitching craft alone. His bat has more mixed reviews with some questioning his 2 strike approach and hit tool. With the Cubs OF surplus it's plausible that the need to get everyone abs will cut into his abs (I see him getting similar abs as Jon Jay for ex) but also on a contending team if he struggles to adjust on the hitting side or gets outperformed then he likely wouldn't get the same assurances for abs later in the season that he'd get from a team like SF even who are short on OFs. I have no idea where he'll go but I do think he has the most risk to have consistent abs taken away him if he signs with the Cubs or Dodgers. Obviously he's confident in his abilities but that doesn't mean he's naive to think he'll get more freedom to be an every day player and get consistent abs with the Cubs rather than some of the other options. And all indications are being given the opportunity to be a dual threat player on a regular basis is a major priority if not the top priority for him in his decision.

I'm definitely not counting the Cubs out and I think it's clear a lot of aspects about the organization appeal to him and rightfully so. But I definitely wouldn't be surprised if the assurance of more abs comes into play if he doesn't sign here

There is a great chance that he will struggle hitting and pitching. You and others are over analyzing each tiny bit of information that has become available. Some believe he already has his mind made up on his destination.

There is a great chance he doesn't struggle hitting or pitching. You and a few others are under analyzing his history and information requested of teams. Some believe he is truly letting the teams make their pitch and then will make up his mind.

So you put no merit in his goals of winning because the Mariners and Padres have no shot at winning. He has 3 World Series wins by age 34 as his goal. The Padres and Mariners will not win a World Series in his career span. So you think he is fine with 4th and 5th place finishes the next 5-7 years? I don't.

What a cool bet to tell me what two teams I can have and you get 5 of 7. Those are fantastic odds for me. LOL!!!

I do not believe LAD is in the mix at the very end. I believe it is TEX, Cubs, and SFO. I may be spot on and I may be way off. We'll find out soon. Nothing will surprise me, but it would be a head scratcher if he chose teams that are not set up to win.

Not bailing at all. If what has been put out there from him and his agents, IMO, the Cubs are the best “fit” all things considered. A simple spreadsheet of teams on one side and attributes on the other could tell anyone that. But the human element is in play and something emotional could sway the decision.

I’ll take that action.
It’s simple at this point. If $ is no object, which Organization left, if u want to win consistently, would u want to commit the next 5 years of your life/career to.....
Cubs or Dodgers

In addition to rbrucato’s comment, he wouldn’t be an “experiment” pitching... Cubs have 2 spots in the rotation needing to fill. There’s actual scouting reports on him for both hitting & pitching. He throws high 90s consistently & that alone is worth the shot... But anybody (considering the names being tossed around) they bring in for a 4th/5th spot & some of the bullpen openings very well could be considered experiments.

I think hes moreso referring to getting consistent abs that's where his ability to translate to the majors is Moreso in question. This guys a legit ace but even if he can hit it likely won't be easy to outperform some of our young OFs. I'm in the camp that thinks schwarbers going to be the teams most improved player also

In addition in terms of changing the rotation he means otani pitched once a week to accommodate playing every day and that would make life tough for our other pitchers. It's already an adjustment pitching every 5 days then add that to playing the OF regularly

Great article Jared. I really don't think the freeing up of International slot money will make a difference--he's coming over here 2 years before he could have signed a contract worth a few hundred million dollars, so a million here and there shouldn't tip the scales.
I heard that when the Cubs made their pitch they included the parents of some of their young players to talk with Ohtani's parents about how their sons are treated by the Cubs.
Getting him would be titanic, like getting Justin Verlander only 10 years younger and more than just a pitcher, a possible top 10 outfielder.
I haven't let myself think too much about it, but it is a good fit and if he signs here he can add another one or two WS titles to his wish list.

Thanks Jonathan! And the moves last night felt more like last-ditch efforts from teams who feared they were losing their shot with him. Given how quickly this has moved, I would not be surprised to see news break today or tomorrow.

The Cubs have had some flops from Asia join the team. I'm thinking of Hee Sop Choi, and Kosuke Fukudome. They have so much to take in once they get here. Language barriers, how to play the outfield, how to pitch, etc. I think the $338000 could be used elsewhere.

Ohtani throws, with control, pitches that many major league pitchers haven't mastered. If he never gets a hit in MLB, his arm is worth far and away more than the $338k you're trying to save. Choi and Fukodome were evaluated and selected by prior ownership and management. It's a different day in Cubville.

Exactly Cliff. His FB is at 95-100mph & also has a split & slider. Worst case scenario he’s a #3 Sp, but could be an ace who can also hit. Small gamble w/possible very high reward. This is no brainer land.

Right. Given the rotation now, he would need only to be the #4 guy, so there shouldn't be as much pressure. He is not coming in to be the ace of the Cubs staff. And like I said in the post, anything he does on offense is just gravy.

I'd hardly call either of those flops. Kosuke had over 5 WAR in 4 seasons and Choi recovered fairly well his second year. Regardless - those were entirely different front offices. TheoJed on the other hand have had marvelous success with international players - including Japanese at Boston. Matsuzaka, Takashi Saito, Junichi Tazawa, Hideki Okajima all helped break the Boston championship curse.

So, if money were REALLY that important - all the NL clubs wouldn't have made the final cut. IF the DH was all that attractive - why are 4 of his 7 choices NL clubs? If small market and West Coast were that critical - why would Texas and Chicago still be in at all?

I wasn't aware of these goals. Clearly both personal (Cy Young) and team goals are critical to him - and internally he probably already feels "behind". This narrows it is to Dodgers and Cubs - very remotely the Mariners (clearly odds of getting to WS with both Astros and Rangers in that division are far less likely than the NLC and the NLW).

Some Japanese reports have stated Ohtani doesn't really want to go where another Japanese star has been "the guy." Not sure if half a season of Darvish would disqualify the Dodgers but I'm really really really liking the Cubs chances here. The same ppl who said the Yankees were a lock are now saying the Padres and Mariners.

I don't see Ohtani pitching once a week messing up the rotation if he is a Cub. I see him pitching every 5th day just like everyone else. I do see his innings limited so, he may miss a start once in a while.

I don’t believe by your comments you have read much about Ohtani from his history and his ask of teams. I have followed him closely for nearly 3 years. There is no way he will take the ball every 5th day when he has never done it in his life. He wants a plan to prevent injury and limit his mileage on his arm while still young. I hope all teams other than the Cubs are saying they will get him 32 starts on the mound and let him throw 220 innings. He will then be a Cub without a doubt. I think you are missing what the player wants.

I think you should re-read my comment above. I did not say he will have 32 starts. I said they will limit his innings. They would IMO skip some starts for him. But, I do think he will pitch every 5 days just like everyone else. One thing I am sure and that is you do not know what he is asking teams. Or what I take you are saying his demands. He is 23 years old. I think he would eventually get up to 32 starts and 200 innings in his career.

We will agree to disagree. There are multiple articles and sources out there to read. Kinda tough to have a civil discussion when the “you do not know what he is asking” reply is thrown out there. Makes any dialogue pointless as no one on this board would be privy to that. Good day, sir. Catch you on future threads.

My point comes from no other japanese pitcher has ask to only pitch once a week like they did in Japan. I just don't see special treatment like that for him. Like you said We will agree to disagree. We will see in the spring.

It has been pretty well documented that he wouldn't pitch every five games. I know I keep mentioning the Giants, but they said he'd be a TOR pitcher, and part-time player. He can throw 100+ MPH and hit 500 foot home runs. He's only 23, would be under team control for 6 years, and in his first year with the Cubs would get a $300K bonus and a $500K salary. To get him, he would be handled differently than other players before. If it meant altering the rotation or trading Schwarber so the Othani can play, I have no doubt those thing would happen.

Listen to the Bobby Evans interview. The first half of the interview focuses on Stanton, and the second half about Othani. In it, he talks about the fact that Othani pitched only one game a week, and would be able to pitch every fifth game, at least initially.

I said if he was a Cub, not what the Giants would do or any other team for that matter. Evans said over time he could see Ohtani pitching every 5 days. He will be like any young pitcher needing to work on getting the innings up. Haven't heard Gary Radnich in a few years. Still the same.

Cubswin09 said December 7, 2017 at 12:00 am

I listened to Bobby Evans, GM of the Giants, discuss Ohtani yesterday. He said their scouts said he is both the best pitcher and hitter in Japan. They would definitely use him as a two-way player. In Japan, he pitched once a week, not every fifth game, and they don’t think he could initially pitch every fifth game in the U.S. (although he could eventually). They believe he is a good enough talent to play any of the three outfield positions, including centerfield. He is supposedly very fast.

I dream of a 2019 outfield of Harper in right, Heyward in center, Ohtani in left, with Happ as a floater and Ohtani pitching once a week.

Ok, Mr. ‘I’d b shocked, if he does not go to the Yankees.’
The thing is, that’s how all pitchers r used in the NPB. So not a lot to be gleaned there.
The thing EVERYONE knows for sure, is that no one knows for sure......

Evans just said that initially he wouldn’t pitch every fifth game. He didn’t provide specifics into how they would use him, except that he would play both ways. The radio host asked the questions we’d all asked, like: “Isn’t it true he’s more of a pitcher?” That’s when Evans pushed back and said he’s the best hitter in Japan. “Isn’t it true he’d have to be hidden in left?” That’s when Evans said he’s good enough to play CF. And that he’s very fast. Evans is like Theo, meaning he is very honest.

If Ohtani comes to the Cubs I think it will because he likes the organization the best. Maddon could be the edge. Joe loves being creative and innovative. Theo and Jed are honest, while the Ricketts are trustworthy owners.

Another idea for limiting innings and maximizing at-bats. There is increasing data indicating hitters do better against a pitcher the third time through the order. Maybe Ohtani starts the game....pitches 4 or 5 innings (throwing 60-70 pitches) and then moves to right field. In the same game, he returns to pitching in the 9th inning. That way, Ohtani gets 4 or 5 at-bats. Pitches in crucial beginning and final innings, but takes a "break" to play the field in middle innings.

Yes. That is a good point. His arm could cool down or stiffen during the gap between 5th and 9th inning. Maybe he throws a few pitches in the bullpen during offensive half innings he is not schedule to bat. I was never a pitcher, so not personally familiar with challenges of staying loose.
Anyway....a two-way player like Ohtani is certainly fruit for creative thinking. It will be fun if he comes to the Cubs!!

Very well written and thought out, Jared. In the back of my mind I believe the Giants are on the "short list" with the Rangers and possibly Cubs. All three have a good recent history of being winning teams. That has to be an advantage over Seattle and San Diego. Living in L.A. is like living in a zoo, and probably the worst traffic in the U.S.. Not sure the quality of life there matches what he is looking for.

Nightingale tweeted in the last 2 seasons chatwood is tied with strasburg for 2nd in nl road era only behind keshaw. 58% ground ball rate and with the cubs defense behind him I think this could be a great value signing

If the cubs can sign cobb that's a nice rotation and probably the best 1-5 of the maddon era. Of course otani would be the icing on the cake but I always thought that was a longshot. I'll keeping hoping he chooses the cubs until it becomes official though

Ot a bit, Denizens, Cubbies have just appafrently signed Tyler Chatwood for 3/38m to be a BOR starter. Hopefully, we get the Chatwood who pitched well on the road for the ROX not the Coors field Chatwood. Chatwood does have a hign GB rate, which with the Cubs infield defense should work out well.

That's a lot of money for a guy who has had 2 TJs. It also suggests only one more starting slot open. I wonder if this means they don't think they're getting Ohtani because, if they were, using this money plus a little more on Cobb seems logical.

Or perhaps they had to move now or lose him and they wanted to be sure they had something.

Maybe the Cubs are willing to pay more because there is no qualifying offer so no loss of draft pick? One of the little hidden areas where it is nice to be a big market team. Cobb would require the loss of a draft pick.

Given the Jimenez-Quintana trade, I don't see prospects/draft picks being a high consideration just now. Although I do see saving enough money to make a real run at Harper as a consideration. So that might explain it.

Yeah I get the arguments for him but not the biggest fan of him mainly due to major durability questions. Dont see him as a guy who will be pitching playoff games more like a better version of Jason hammel

It looks like Pitching will be expensive this off season. I like Chatwood better than Minor, or the guy returning from Japan signed by Cardinals. Considering signings so far, Cobb will expect at least 4 years at $15-16 mil per year.
Let's hope Chatwood is a great signing. Maybe Tim Hudson in his prime is the comparison

would be a much more easier comp if Lackey had ever pitched a full season in Coors. My guess is his numbers might have been scary there based on that spinner that might not have moved at all in Denver.....

Nice article Jared. I’ve been surprised by the lack of media focus on facilities. It seemed that Ohtani had a particular interest in the medical and recovery component of his next team. The Cubs seem particularly well positioned to offer state-of-the art facilities.

I've seen multiple reports say structure,clubhouse chemistry, player development and endorsement potential along with allowing him to be a 2 way player being the important factors for otani. The cubs literally check all the boxes and as a bonus can contend for championships for the next 5-6 years which gets otani more exposure than playing in seattle,texas or san diego would. Winning/Success = more $$$