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March 15, 2012

The Federal Ministry for the Economy and Technology has published a most interesting overview of how Germany plans to transform the German electric power grid. It is based on the 40 year energy plan that was released in 2010, but incorporates the 2011 decision to shut down all nuclear power plants in Germany by 2022.

Ensuring adequate power supply at affordable prices is essential for the future development of the German economy. By 2022 Germany intends to shut down existing nuclear power plants. Together with the requirement to reduce emssions this is forcing a fundamental restructuring of the German energy supply including a new, intelligent and efficient power grid.

Another important factor is reliability. A measure of reliability is the total time of nonavailability - the total number of minutes annually that the avereage consumer is without power. In Germany this is about 14.63 minutes annually, reflecting a very high level of reliability. It will be necessary to maintain this high level of availability as the grid is radically transformed.

German electric power generation is currently 80% fossil and nuclear fuels. In 40 years it is planned that it will be over 80% renewable energy and CO2 emissions will be at least 80% below the 1990 emissions level. To do this will require a new power grid, new power generation plants, new storage facilities, and new technologies. In 2008 power consumption in Germany was about 625 TWh. By 2030 consumption is expected to drop to about 500 TWh, of which about half will be derived from renewable sources. In 2030 it is projected that roughly 50 TWh net will be imported.

Transforming the grid

The German electric grid consists of 1.7 million km of conductors. It will need to be expanded and reinforced to support new onshore and offshore wind turbines, thousands of new solar power generator installations as well as new conventional power plants to replace nuclear and older fossil fuel plants.

To develop the new grid, the highest priorities are

New transmission capacity to link 25 GW of offshore wind generation in the Baltic by 2030,

In addition to the new natural gas and coal power plants that are already being constructed, an additonal 17 GW of conventional power generation will be required by 2022.

In 2010 about 880,000 photovoltaic installations produced about 11,500 GWh. By 2020 the number of solar installations will continue to increase.

By 2015 about 400 km of high tension transmission lines will need to be reinforced and an additional 850 km constructed. By 2020 several thousand km of new transmission capacity will be required.

In 2010 a total of 22,500 GWh were generated from biogas and biomass sources. By 2020 this will increase to about 50,000 GWh

Currently the German power grid has storage capacity of about 10 GW from storage and pumped storage power plants - about the equivalent of 10 large power plants. By 2020 storage it is projected that storage capacity will increase to 13 GW.

Streamlining planning and regulatory approval

Until now the construction of new transmission capacity has been seriously delayed by a very cumbersome planning and regulatory process, especially for lines crossing multiple states (This situation is even worse in the U.S.). In the summer of 2011 the Federal and State governments agreed on a foundation for streamlining the planning and regulatory approval process for expanding the transmission grid. Two new laws, EnWG and NABEG, were passed. The objective of the new laws is to reduce the time required for planning and regulatory approval for new transmission lines from ten years to four years. A key provision of NABEG is that when proposed transmissiion lines cross multiple States, the Federal regulator (BNA) will be responsible for planning and approval using an open and transparent process.

Among other objectives the Blueprint will address water efficiency. The Blueprint will provide "first indications" for water efficiency targets including the development of water efficiency targets at the sectoral and river basin level. In addition, it will ain at improving water efficiency in buildings and in distribution networks. The time horizon of the Blueprint is 2020, but the analysis supporting the Blueprint will cover up to 2050.

The European Environment Agency (EEA) has just published the first in a series of five reports that EEA will publish in 2012 to support the development of the Blueprint. This first report focusses on resource efficiency.

Some of the major global issues that will impact the EU are growing global demand for food and increasing cultivation of biofuel crops, recognition of the interdependence of water, energy and land use, and the impact of climate change. As a result of climate change much of Europe will likely face reduced water availability during summer months and the frequency and intensity of drought is projected to increase in the south.

The report argues that to enable sustainable economic production future economic growth must be decoupled from environmental impacts and that this requires increased resource-efficiency innovations and limits to environmental impact. The Water Framework Directive was intended to define the limits to water environemntal impact by defining and mandating 'good status' objective for EU water bodies.

Resource-efficient technologies in agricultural irrigation, water supply and treatment can deliver substantial water savings. Sustainable public and industrial water management depends on innovative production treatments and processes, ecological design in buildings and better urban planning.

The report recognizes the interdependence of water use, energy production, and land use. For example, technologies that cut water use also help to reduce energy use. The energy intensity of deslainationrequires the development of renewable energy. Hydropower while reducung emissions has impacts on water ecosystems, which limits the growth potential of hydropower compared to wind and solar energy.

Some of the economic measures that the report anticipates can inprove water efficiency includes water pricing and market-based policies. Water prices and tariffs should reflect the true costs of water including environmental and resource costs. In the case of public water supply, volumetric pricing and metering needs to generate adequate revenues to finance resource-efficiency measures and upgrade aging infrastructure. Utilities expenditures and investments needs to be transparent to consumers. For water used in irrigation, pricing structures should provide more incentives for resource efficiency removal of adverse agricultural subsidies should be a priority.

The report also promates an integrated apprioach to sustainable water management, Water efficiency must be consideres together with resource efficiency s energy and land use. The WFD provides the limits to environmental sustainability that should be applied in an integrated approach to define common limits for sustainability for the competing users in all sectors including agriculture, energy, transport and tourism. This will require strong intersectoral exchange, particularly in operational water management at the river basin level.

March 10, 2012

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) released a second report in the series called Failure to Act. In the U.S. aging pipes and inadequate capacity (SSOs and CSOs) result in the discharge of an estimated 900 billion gallons of untreated sewage into surface waters each year. The ASCE estimated that unreliable water and wastewater infrastructure cost American households and business $21 billion/year.

In Ottawa a significant part of the sewer system is a combined system which means sanitary and storm water goes into the same pipe. Normally all of this is treated at some level. But when snow melt or rain volume is high, the treatment plants cannot keep up and the overflow is routed directly into the Rideau Canal or the Ottawa River.

Last year 445,803 m3 of combined sewer overflows (SSOs) and sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) were reported. This is higher than in 2010, but under half of the total sewer overflow volume reported five years ago.

2011 445,803 m3

2010 424,000

2009 632,000

2008 843,000

2007 730,000

2006 1,090,000

The City of Ottawa has a plan to mitigate the impact of combined sewer overflows into the Ottawa River including real time monitoring and control, building storage capacity to hold overflows until there is capacity to treat the sewage, and continuing sewer separation projects. With the current funding framework, it is expected that the planned separation work will be completed in approximately 25 years.

Over the next decade the average household water and sewer bill is expected to rise from $636 a year now to $1,045. The rate increases and borrowing of additional $460 million will raise $2.1 billion for maintaining the system. But this is short of the estimated $2.7 billion that is required, leaving a $600-million gap.

March 09, 2012

In December 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS), the first national standards for mercury, arsenic, acid gas, nickel, selenium, and cyanide emissions from power plants under the Clean Air Act Amendments, signed by President Bush in 1990. The EPA says that MATS and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR), issued earlier this year, are the most significant steps to clean up pollution from power plant smokestacks since the Acid Rain Program of the 1990s. An associated Presidential Memorandum directs EPA to implement the MATS in a cost-effective manner that ensures electric reliability.

FirstEnergy Generation Corp. has announced that it intends to replace some of its coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired generation. One motivating factor id that northeast Ohio is experiencing a natural gas boom involving the Utica shale formation. The first installation is expected to be 800 megawatts of gas-fired turbines at the Eastlake Plant in Eastlake, Ohio. Other steps including transmission system enhancements are being looked at to ensure reliable electric service in northern Ohio after the coal-fired power plants are retired. The turbines would be in service by the spring of 2015 when the MATS regulations take effect.

The data in this report cover MY 1975-2011. Except when noted, CO2 emissions and fuel economy values in this report have been adjusted to reflect "real world" consumer performance and therefore are not comparable to CO2 emissions and fuel economy standards. Data for MY 2010 are final, but data for MY 2011 are preliminary.

Most small, 2 wheel drive SUVs have been reclassified from trucks to cars for the entire MY 1975-2011 database. This reflects a regulatory change made by the Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards beginning in MY 2011. For MY 2010, nearly 1.1 million vehicles are classified as cars that in previous years would have been classified as trucks.

Final MY 2010 data are based on formal end-of-year CAFE reports submitted by automakers to EPA and will not change. The preliminary MY 2011 data in this report are based on confidential pre-model year production volume projections provided to EPA by automakers.

Conclusions

MY 2010 had the lowest CO2 emission rate and highest fuel economy since the database began in 1975.MY 2010 adjusted composite CO2 emissions were 394 g/mi, a record low for the post-1975 database and a 3 g/mi decrease relative to MY 2009. MY 2010 adjusted composite fuel economy was 22.6 mpg, an all-time high since the database began in 1975, and 0.2 mpg higher than in MY 2009. Preliminary MY 2011 values are 391 g/mi CO2 emissions and 22.8 mpg fuel economy, reflecting slight improvements over MY 2010.

At the new iPad launch, Autodesk gave a sneak-peak of an upcoming app SketchBook Ink, which is a new drawing app that is designed to deliver a digital ink experience, using a non-pixel-based engine. It's designed to compliment SketchBook Pro. You can see it on CNet.

EPA, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the State of Wyoming, and the Tribes have announced that they are going to do additional sampling. The EPA has also announced that it is extending the public comment period through October 2012 until additional sampling has been completed. EPA has also delayed convening the peer review panel on the draft Pavillion report until a report containing USGS data is publicly available.

I blogged previously about an interesting analysis of job creation by the "App Economy" has been conducted for TechNet by Dr.Michael Mandel of South Mountain Economics LLC. The Technet analysis suggests that there were 155,000 tech jobs in the App Economy as of December 2011 including developer and tech support jobs at both dedicated app developers and at large companies who create apps for them or for others. This implies that there are roughly 311,000 jobs in App Economy firms, including tech jobs, which require app-related skills, and the corresponding non-tech jobs. With spillover included, the total number of jobs created in the App Economy is estimated at 466,000 jobs since the iPhone was introduced in 2007.

There is an interesting article in the Washington Post that makes the case that this kind of transformation is going to happen to many manufacturing jobs. In the future the types of jobs that need to be filled will be different from the jobs that are being filled by workers in the emerging economies of the world. These new jobs in industries that we have not yet even conceived of will require fewer workers with very different skills. The one thing that is certain is that we will require a workforce with much different skills and education than what was required for the manufacturing jobs of the last 50 years. Malaysia is an example of a country that understands this better than most.

New materials, processes and integration

Carl Bass of Autodesk sees three key developments that will define these new manufacturing jobs: new materials, new processes, and complex integration of automated systems.

New types of materials such as carbon nanotubes, ceramic-matrix nanocomposites, and new carbon fibers are being used to create products that are stronger, lighter, more energy efficient and more durable. These materials require new manufacuring processes and more highly skilled employees to manage the more complex manufacturing processes.

In conventional manufacturing, artifacts are produced by "subtractive" manufacturing processes using equipment such as lathes, drills, and milling machines that cut shapes from solid blocks of materials such as steel or wood. These processes result in a lot of waste material. In a new method called “additive manufacturing,” parts are produced like you would make a snow ball, building the object up by adding layers of material. The best example is 3D printing. The process doesn’t produce waste material in the way that "subtractive" manufacturing processes do. This new manufacturing environment will need 3D designers and operators who can operate and maintain sophisticated computer-based equipment.

Factories will have to become smarter in much the same way that the electric grid is becoming smarter and this means that we will need people will different skills. As in the electric power industry, there will be greater use of simulation to analyze how manufacturing systems respond to changes such as introducing a new material or changing a feature of a product. Manufacturing engineers will need to become more adept at dealing with virtual control systems, simulation and other such technologies.

One of the aspects of electric cars that seems to be an important factor for consumers in deciding whether to buy an electric vehicle is range. Pure electric vehicles (EV) like the Nissan leaf have a range of about 100 miles. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) like the Volt has a range of about 40 miles under electric power, but has a gasoline engine to extend the range. The range of hybrid vehicles (HEV) like the Prius don't differ that much from internal combusion engined cars (ICE).

GE's Data Visualization site has very effective graphics showing some of the characteristics of U.S. driving patterns and electric power usage that are relevant to electric vehicles.

Range

Not everyone needs a vehicle with a range of hundreds of miles. Over 50% of all US household trips are under 6 miles. This begs the question what percentage of U.S. households have never taken a car trip that exceeds 100 miles ?

Charging

The graphic shows driver behaviour for the typical EV owner. Driving (orange) typically occurs between 9 am and midnight. For current electric vehicle onwers, who can't charge at the office, charging (green) typically starts about 6 pm when the owner gets home. The blue area shows roughly when power utilities have greatest excess capacity for power generation. With an appropriate time-of-use pricing policy, power utilities can encourage vehicle owners to take advantage of excess grid capacity by charging at off-peak times.

March 07, 2012

The Gandalf Group conducts a quarterly C-Suite survey of corporate executives across Canada sponsored by KPMG. 151 C-level executives were interviewed between February 10th and 27th, 2012.

Labour challenges

The survey found that most of the companies are reporting difficulty in finding qualified employees and that for a segment of companies it’s a very acute concern. About a third report the labour shortage is preventing their company from growing. Even more said they increasingly have to look outside of Canada to fill specific jobs. Engineers, those with technical skills or trades people and some IT professionals are top mentions of positions or skills that are difficult to find.

48% of respondents said that they expected the Canadian economy to have a greater percentage of skilled workers than today.

70% aggreed that labour shortages stand to get much worse for companies because of baby boomers' retirement.

Budget priorities

The survey questions about the Federal budget demonstrate how central labour market questions are to the repondents.

The number one priority is increased investment in skills training. Even among the minority who want aggressive deficit reduction, about one in three identified increased investments in skills training as a high priority. Western Canadian executives tended to add fast-tracking applications from skilled immigrants as something the government must make a priority.