Sunday, May 17, 2009

To Dust or Not to Dust

"A successful theory can easily produce a state of mind that fails to recognize the presence of proofs to the contrary." Stanley Jaki, The Relevance of Physics, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1966), p. 280 cited by Arthur C. Custance, Survival of the Unfit ,Doorway Papers, No. 53, (Brockville: privately published, 1971), p.3

That quotation has stuck with me for years, ever since I first read it. It says bundles about the human ability to fool oneself. Today we are going to look at a May 8, 2009 Science article which explains the sea surface warming of the North Atlantic. Everyone wants to claim that the warming is due to CO2's evil effects upon the planet. But, not this Science article

"Observations and models show that northern tropical Atlantic surface temperatures are sensitive to regional changes in stratospheric volcanic and tropospheric mineral aerosols. However, it is unknown whether the temporal variability of these aerosols is a key factor in the evolution of ocean temperature anomalies. We used a simple physical model, incorporating 26 years of satellite data, to estimate the temperature response of the ocean mixed layer to changes in aerosol loadings. Our results suggest that the mixed layer’s response to regional variability in aerosols accounts for 69% of the recent upward trend, and 67% of the detrended and 5-year low pass–filtered variance, in northern tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures." Amato T. Evan, et al, "The role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies," Science, 324(2009), p. 778

So, in other words, between 2/3rds and 3/4ths of the warming is not due to CO2 but due to aerosols, also known as dust. Over the past 20 years the amount of dust in the atmosphere has declined and that has led to the warming of the surface of the earth. Of course, global warming hysteriacs won't tell you this scientific fact, they prefer to tell you scary bedtime stories about how CO2 will be the death of mankind.

The article continues:

"Since 1980, tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures have been rising at a rate of nearly 0.25°C per decade . Studies have attributed this increase, explicitly and implicitly, to global warming. mean Northern Hemisphere temperature variations , changes in the thermohaline circulation, or some combination of these factors . However, many of these studies fail to provide either a mechanism for or direct evidence of how these variables control tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures. At the same time, models and observations demonstrate that local changes in aerosol cover should have a non-negligible impact on Atlantic Ocean temperature via the scattering of sunlight and reduction in surface solar insolation. " Amato T. Evan, et al, "The role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies," Science, 324(2009), p. 778

This is consistent with other data, that warming in Europe, or at least a big part of it, is due to the cleaner air which lets more sunlight through to the earth's surface.

“GOODBYE air pollution and smoky chimneys, hello brighter days. That's been the trend in Europe for the pastthree decades - but unfortunately cleaning up the skies has allowed more ofthe sun's rays to pierce the atmosphere, contributing to at least half the warming that has occurred.” “Since 1980, average air temperatures in Europe have risen 1°C: much more than expected from greenhouse-gas warming alone. Christian Ruckstuhl ofthe Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science in Switzerland and colleagues took aerosol concentrations from six locations in northern Europe, measured between 1986 and 2005, and compared them with solar-radiation measurements over the same period. Aerosol concentrations dropped by up to 60 per cent over the 29-year period, while solar radiation rose by around 1 watt per square metre (Geophysical Research Letters, 001: 10.1029/2008GL034228). "The decrease in aerosols probably accounts for at least half of the warming over Europe in the last 30 years," says Rolf Philipona, a co-author of the study at MeteoSwiss, Switzerland's national weather service.” “The latest climate models are built on the assumption that aerosols have their biggest influence by seeding natural clouds, which reflect sunlight. However, the team found that radiation dropped only slightly on cloudy days, suggesting that the main impact of aerosols is to block sunlight directly.” Anonymous, “Europe's cleaner air makes for brighter days but hotter climes” New Scientist, July 5, 2008, p. 16

So, is the North Atlantic now warming or cooling? Evans et al have a chart showing the temperature anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) which shows that the ocean is now at its long term mean temperature--dashed line. The North Atlantic seas surface temperature has not been impacted by CO2.

Once again, the data upon which global warming is based is flimsy. The only catastrophe of Biblical proportions that the world faces is the credibility,ultimately, of the climatologists who dishonestly site their thermometers so as to make the earth appear to warm more than it does.

About Me

I have had 39 years experience looking for oil and gas around the world, from Scotland, to Algeria, to the East Coast of the United States, South Texas, West Texas, the Rocky Mountain region, Alaska and China. I have found 33 oil fields and drilled my share of dry holes. The various positions held by me include: Manager of Geophysical Training for a major oil Co., Chief Geophysicist for a small independent oil company, Geophysical Manager - Onshore Gulf Coast, Geophysical Manager--Gulf of Mexico and Chief Geophysicist for China , Manager Geophysics for the US Offshore, Geophysical Manager for the North Sea, Director of Integrated Technology, Director of Exploration for China with a large independent oil company and lived in Beijing China. I speak Mandarin (not fluent but able to communicate). Currently I have my own geophysical consulting firm, living in Houston