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There's some bad news on the doorstep for Mitt Romney. The headline at the top of page one in the Wall Street Journal shouted what Mitt Romney didn't want to hear: "Cain Vaults to Lead in Poll." Once again, Yogi got it right: It ain't over til it's over.

Twenty seven percent of GOP primary voters picked Herman Cain as their first choice for the Republican nomination while Mitt Romney held firm as 23 percent, according to the NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll.

We should have seen this coming.

Conservatives never took a liking to Mitt Romney. Rush Limbaugh says he's not a "principled conservative." A caller on his show said that Romney was "the white Obama." Another was hoping Sarah Palin would re-consider and run against President Obama. Never mind all those polls that polls showed most Republicans didn't want her to run. This kind of thing means nothing to the most passionate conservatives who won't be happy until Ronald Reagan rises from the dead and hits the campaign trail. Anything is possible, but I'm guessing it's not going to happen

That's where Herman Cain comes in. He's no Reagan but to conservatives he comes a lot closer than anybody else, especially Mitt Romney.

Rush and his callers are right about one thing: Romney isn't a principled conservative. In fact, you could make the case that he's not a principled politician at all. He was pro-choice. Now he's pro-life. He was for gay rights. Now he defends marriage between a man and a woman as "critical for the well-being of civilization." He was for gun control. Now he's a member of the National Rifle Association.

Yes, running in liberal Massachusetts is one thing; running in Republican primaries for president is something else altogether.

And the other night at the debate, Newt Gingrich asked Romney why his capital gains tax cuts only benefit Americans whose incomes are below $200,000. Romney replied that the "rich can take care of themselves," and that he's concerned about "the middle class." Barack Obama couldn't have said it any better.

Conservatives bristle when they hear liberal journalists say there's a civil war raging in the Republican Party. But there is, or at least there's a great big schism between the "realists" and the "purists." The realists say Romney is the only Republican who can beat Obama because he's the one who can win the crucial independent vote.

The purists say McCain was a moderate, like Romney, and how did that turn out. Besides - and this is their go-to point - Reagan, a real conservative who never apologized for his conservatism, carried 49 states in one election, and that includes a lot of really, really blue states where liberals almost always win. There's the proof, they say, that a real conservative can win. So why settle for Romney?

It's a fair question, but what Rush and the other purists don't get is that Ronald Reagan didn't win simply because he was a real conservative. He won because he was Ronald Reagan. His personality, as much as his politics, won over blue collar Democrats and other lower-income voters who normally don't vote for Republicans. And there's no Ronald Reagan out there today. Not Palin. Not Bachmann. Not Perry. Not Santorum. But Herman Cain, the plain speaking guy who grew up poor and made something of himself because he believes in personal responsibility? Maybe.

Here's a question for my purist friends: Name a second conservative American president in the last 80 years? You can't. Reagan's the only one. If conservatives were so popular with the general electorate you'd think they'd have won a few more elections. Sure, all the Republican presidents since FDR were more conservative than their Democratic opponents, but that doesn't make Eisenhower, Nixon, Bush the Elder or Bush the Younger real conservatives. And if the GOP had nominated more conservative candidates than the ones they did, the Democrat might very well have won.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet. And that fat guy from New Jersey's endorsement of Romney before the debate the other night may not put him over the top. Not a single real vote has been cast. It ain't over til it's over.

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JWR contributor Bernard Goldberg, the television news reporter and author of several bestselling books, among them, Bias, a New York Times number one bestseller about how the media distort the news. He is widely seen as one of the most original writers and thinkers in broadcast journalism. Mr. Goldberg covered stories all over the world for CBS News and has won 10 Emmy awards for excellence in journalism. He now reports for the widely acclaimed HBO broadcast Real Sports.

He is a graduate of Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey and a member of the school's Hall of Distinguished Alumni and proprietor of BernardGoldberg.com.

Previously:

•10/12/11: Read This!!! --- But Only If You Have Nothing Better To Do
•10/04/11: Can Obama Win Re-Election?
•09/27/11: It's NOT the Economy Stupid, It's Theology
•09/20/11: Bad News on the Doorstep
•09/09/11: Hypocrisy!
•09/06/11: Back to the Future
•08/24/11: Hillary vs. Obama in 2012? It'll Never Happen --- I Don't Think
•08/22/11: Warning: Conservatives May Be Harmful to Your Mental Health
•08/17/11: Warren Buffett, Coddled Billionaire
•08/11/11: Too Much Balance in the Media?
•08/04/11: All Aboard the Crazy Train
•08/01/11: Liberal Hate Speech
•07/25/11: With All Due Respect, Go Fly a Kite
•07/20/11: Who Is A Natural Born Citizen?
•07/18/11: Guess Who's Not Paying Their Fair Share
•07/12/11: Against More Taxes? You May Be a Terrorist!
•07/11/11: Casey Anthony: The TV Show
•07/06/11: Standards and Double Standards at MSNBC
•06/29/11: Is Jon Stewart A Racist?
•06/21/11: Let's Play the Race Card --- Just for Fun Of Course
•06/20/11: Sarah Palin and Weiner's Weiner
•06/03/11: Memo to GOP: Turn Mr. Obama into Mr. Yesterday
•05/20/11: I Get Letters From People Who Should Be Locked Up
•05/09/11: Is Torture Ever Justified?•05/02/11: The Promiscuous Use of the R Word•04/19/11: The Man Behind the Million Dollar Smile•04/12/11: What's the Difference Between Libs in Politics and Libs in the Media?•04/08/11: An Idea Whose Time Has Come  and Gone•03/28/11: The Pundits Are Driving Me Crazy --- And You Thought Qadaffi Is Nuts•03/14/11: No Liberal Bias at NPR  Just Ask NPR•03/10/11: The media's frustration •03/01/11: Progressives Lost in Time . . .•02/23/11: The Lamestreams Strike Again --- This Time in Madison•02/03/11: You MUST Own a Gun --- Or Else!•01/20/11: It Was Horrible, I tell you … HORRIBLE!•01/11/11: Here We Go Again . . .•01/06/11: You Go, Oprah•12/28/10: A Year-Ender --- The MSM and Obama's Fall from Grace
•12/14/10: Thank Heaven for Rich People