Well, Thursday is Asteroid Day! How fun is that. And while some humans (especially in Seattle) are busy figuring out how to capture and mine asteroids, the best thing about Asteroid Day is the reminder that if one of those big suckers hits us … well, it’s lights out. Just as the dinosaurs. Oh, wait.

So, Seattle could be destroyed by an Asteroid if it hits us smack on the Space Needle.

Seattle could be destroyed if an asteroid hits the Northwestern region and causes profound disruption of our supplies and infrastructure … blanketing us with debris and blocking out the sun for awhile. Of course, a big one and its … you guessed it, Lights out for all.

The Associated of Space Explores states effectively: “Human society faces a long-term hazard from asteroid and comet impacts on Earth. The chances are 100% that our planet will be struck again by a large near-Earth object (NEO), and we have discovered only a tiny fraction of the million or so objects capable of destroying a city. Recognizing the threat posed by hazardous NEOs, the ASE, as an international association of influential space fliers, is active in promoting global discussions aimed at a near-term capability to prevent a future damaging impact.”

The is an up-to-date map of the solar system displaying the orbits of the terrestrial planets and the estimated position of thousands of known asteroids. This diagram is missing comets, space probes and, of course, the undiscovered asteroids. Even conservative estimates would suggest that for every asteroid on a dangerous Earth-Approaching orbit there are hundreds more which have yet to be discovered. There are over 300 known objects on Earth-crossing orbits, the majority of which are potentially capable of causing death and destruction on a scale unheard of in human history.
Computer-generated image via Scott Manley at Armagh Observatory

Speaking of space: With “Independence Day: Resurgence” at movie theaters, this is top of mind. Sort of. We haven’t seen the movie yet and it’s not getting great reviews … BUT, it’s clearly a thing we should be thinking about as we send our hopeful little messages deep into space. “Hello! We’re here! We’d love to talk with you!” … only to be answered by something that eats all forms of bio-matter the way flesh-eating bacteria does. It’s not like they’d have to shot each and every one of us. They’re very presence could destroy all things human.

We’ve been lucky on this front since industrialization … but our infrastructure could still be taken out by a fairly mild flare pointed in the right direction. In fact, in 2012 occurred the strongest flareup in recorded history. “If it had hit Earth, we would still be picking up the pieces,” one expert said. That flare wouldn’t have physically harmed our bodies, but it would have damaged satellites and taken down our power grid. A study done by the National Academy of Sciences totaled the estimated damages of that event at over $2 trillion.

Now back to Earth! This its one way we could all be killed that we haven’t heard of before, from Wikipedia:

“The Hilina Slump is a 5,000 cubic mile section of the Big Island of Hawaii on the south flank of the Kilauea volcano. Between 1990 and 1993, Global Positioning System measurements showed a southward displacement of the south flank of Kilauea up to approximately 10 centimeters per year. The slump has the potential of breaking away at a faster pace in the form of an underwater landslide. …

“If the entire Hilina Slump were to slide into the ocean at once, it could cause an earthquake in excess of a 9 in magnitude, and a megatsunami. Previous megatsunamis in Hawaii 110,000 years ago caused by similar geological phenomena created waves 1,600 feet tall. Were such a megatsunami to occur again, it would threaten the entire Pacific Rim.”

Earthquakes are of course Seattle's top hazard. No other hazard has the combination of likelihood and potential destruction. Seattle faces three kinds of earthquakes; the most devastating will arise from the Seattle Fault, an east-west zone through the city.

Seattle's "most likely scenario" for the next big earthquake: A magnitude-6.7 deep quake, similar to the 2001 Nisqually temblor, strikes near Seattle during business hours. Death toll: Single digits. Damage: $500 million. Frequency: 1 in 50 chance per year.

Most likely scenario: A severe storm with a 12-inch accumulation strikes on a weekday, similar to the storms of 1996 and 2008. Snow lingers for a week, followed by freezing rain, which snaps tree branches and causes power outages. Frequency: High. Seattle sees severe snow once a decade.

Worst-case scenario: A winter as severe as that of 1880, which dropped an unofficial 64 inches of snow, crushes Seattle. More than 30 inches blanket the city over a few days, followed by freezing rain. People die, roofs collapse, transportation stops and Lake Union freezes over. Frequency or likelihood: Once every 100 years.

Major Infrastructure failures include sinkholes, dam breaches, bridge collapses and water main and gas pipe breaks. Past failures include the 1940 collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge (pictured), and Madison Valley's failed drainage system in 2006, which flooded 300 homes and drowned a resident.

Most likely scenario: A 42-inch water main breaks near a bridge, impacting gas, sewer and communications. Frequency: High.

Worst-case scenario: A cyber attack destroys the American power grid, including Seattle City Light and Bonneville Power Administration. Hundreds die in Seattle from spoiled food; untreated sewage goes into Puget Sound.

Frequency: Almost never. The world has seen only one confirmed, equipment-destroying cyberattack – in Iran. Some experts doubt if terrorists really can or want to carry out a crippling attack.

Seattle is vulnerable to violent winds equivalent to those in Category 1 hurricanes. It's seen sustained 85 mph winds in recent decades, and climate data shows that windstorms may be becoming more intense.

Most likely scenario: A severe storm triggers widespread outages, similar to the 2006 storm that left 1.5 million people in Western Washington and Oregon without power, many for days. Frequency: High. Seattle has major windstorms nearly every decade.

Worst-case scenario: Climate change fuels a record-setting cyclone with 90 mph winds. The 10-hour storm knocks down trees and power lines from already saturated soil. Half the city loses power. Frequency: Unprecedented. But local cyclones may be increasing in intensity.

Most outages are small and short-lived, but regional, cascading blackouts are a "distinct possibility," due to Seattle's reliance on the aging Bonneville Power system. Most likely scenario: An underground vault fire cuts power to a large part of downtown for three days.

Worst-case scenario: The Western power grid fails during a cold snap in December for 10 days. City Light does rolling blackouts during the holidays, and hundreds move to heated shelters. Expected frequency: Once every 100 years.

A large-scale terrorist attack in Seattle has a "low probability," while smaller eco-terrorist, animal-rights and home -grown terrorist attacks are more likely, says the report. Most likely scenario: Activists bomb an animal research facility, after releasing the animals. Frequency: High. Seattle has experienced two major extremist violence in the past 20 years.

Worst case scenario: An anthrax attack strikes downtown Seattle. The CDC has estimated that one kilogram of aerosolized anthrax in a dense, urban environment could kill 1,300 people. Frequency: Never. A bioterrorism attack of this magnitude has never occurred in the world.

Worst-case scenario: A severe pandemic flu sweeps the globe, killing 3,600 people in Seattle and sickening 171,000. This scenario, envisioned by local public health officials, is based on the 1918 pandemic flu. Frequency: Every 100 years.

Seattle is largely spared the pain of Western Washington's floods, but urban flooding is a concern. City drains failed in Madison Valley in 2006, flooding 300 homes and drowning a resident. Most likely scenario: A Pineapple Express causes Seattle's Thornton and Longfellow creeks to flood and overwhelm city drains. Frequency: High.

Seattle is largely spared the pain of Western Washington's floods, but urban flooding is a concern. City drains failed in Madison Valley in 2006, flooding 300 homes and drowning a resident. Most likely

Worst-case scenario: Heavy rain (one inch per hour) floods the region for nine days. There's a king tide. Seattle creeks flood. City drains fail. Hills crumble. Duwamish levees weaken. People die and lose their homes. Estimated likelihood: Once every 500 to 1,000 years – unprecedented, but not unrealistic to expect.

Seattle's "extreme heat events" have been increasing in frequency and severity in recent decades. Climate data says this trend will likely continue. Seattle broke its hottest day record in 2009, with a brutal 103 degrees, 15 years after its 1994 record of 100 degrees.

Most likely scenario: Seattle will break its 103-degree record in the next 10 to 50 years.

Worst-case scenario: Seattle bakes in a heat wave of 14 straight days of 90+ degrees, including three days over 100. People die. Estimated frequency: Once every 100 years. This kind of heat is unprecedented, but not unrealistic, given Seattle's increasing extreme heat events, says the report.

Worst-case scenario: An Amtrak train collides with an oil tanker in a tunnel. The tunnel collapses; hundreds die. Frequency: Unprecedented. Seattle has never had a large tunnel fire. The last fuel tanker fire was in 1975. It's more likely that large fires will be caused by an earthquake.

Worst-case scenario: An Amtrak train collides with an oil tanker in a tunnel. The tunnel collapses; hundreds die. Frequency: Unprecedented. Seattle has never had a large tunnel fire. The last fuel tanker

Tsunamis in Seattle are rare, but potentially catastrophic. They're most often caused by earthquakes and landslides. A Pacific Ocean tsunami doesn’t pose a major threat, because Puget Sound's complex shoreline would break it up before it reaches Seattle.

Most likely scenario: A megathrust earthquake causes a huge seiche in Lake Union. (A seiche is the sloshing of water in a lake or other enclosed body of water). Six-foot waves cause boats to smash violently together. Frequency: Once every 1,000 years. Seattle's last seiche caused some damage in 2002, but wasn't disastrous.

Worst-case scenario: A devastating 7.2-magnitude Seattle Fault earthquake triggers a 16-foot tsunami similar to Seattle's earthquake and tsunami in 900 AD. Waves smash into the waterfront, Harbor Island and Interbay. Hundreds die, because they had little time to escape; the tsunami would have occurred just minutes after the quake.

Transportation incidents happen all the time, so a "most likely" transportation disaster is defined as one that's too big for Seattle to handle alone.

Most likely scenario: A bus crashes off the Aurora Bridge onto a Fremont apartment building, killing 15 people. This disaster is modeled off Seattle's 1998 Metro bus shooting, in which a passenger shot and killed a bus driver, causing the bus to plunge 50 feet off the Aurora Bridge. Expected frequency for this type of disaster: Once every 10 years.

(Photo: Two buses hang precariously over I-5 in Capitol Hill after skidding on ice, 2008).

Seattle's three big plane crashes in residential neighborhoods all happened before 1951. Plane safety has since dramatically improved, but major passenger jet crashes still occur. Photo: American Airlines crash in Queens, NY, 2001.

Water shortages occur in the region every 5 to 10 years, usually due to low snowpack or dry, fall conditions. Seattle's risk of water shortages is likely to grow with climate change and increasing demand, says the report.

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Most likely scenario: A hot, dry summer; cold autumn; and low snowpack lead to water shortage, prompting Seattle Public Utilities to impose restrictions. Landscaping businesses suffer. Frequency: Once every 10 to 50 years.

Worst-case scenario: Several years of low snowpack, hot summers and cold winters cause a severe, region-wide drought. SPU has to impose emergency restrictions for the first time in history. Frequency and likelihood: Unprecedented, so very low.

Hazardous materials incidents in Seattle have mostly been minor. They're also on the decline. But the city's risk includes being an industrial hub. The city also had two close calls in recent months: An oil tanker derailment in Interbay (pictured) and a fire in a Fremont metal-finishing plant full of toxic chemicals.

Most likely scenario: A fire and explosion releases anhydrous ammonia from rail cars on Harbor Island. Frequency: A one in 100-year event.

Worst-case scenario: An oil tanker collides with the Bainbridge Ferry in Elliott Bay, spilling thousands of gallons of oil. Probability: Very low. Oil tankers don't normally come into Elliott Bay, and a large ship collision hasn't happened in Seattle in more than 100 years.

Mt. Rainier is the region's biggest volcano threat, but Seattle is too far to suffer much blast damage. It's more likely that a Rainier eruption will devastate the Puyallup, Carbon and White River valleys, with the lahar (volcanic mudflow) stopping at Auburn.

Most likely scenario for Seattle: Volcanic debris will wash down the Duwamish River for weeks, affecting South Park and Georgetown. Expected frequency: Once every 500 to 1,000 years.

"Active shooter incidents" is a new hazard category, defined as an in-progress attack with many potential victims and the need for immediate police and medical help. This category includes the shootings at Seattle Pacific University, Café Racer and the Seattle Jewish Federation.

Most likely scenario: Two suspects attack a downtown lecture gathering, setting off a bomb and killing hostages. Frequency: Once every 50 years.

Worst case scenario: A "well-armed, well-organized and motivated group" with automatic weapons and IEDs target the Westlake Plaza tree lighting ceremony. This scenario is inspired by the 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, but such an attack has never happened in the U.S. Likelihood: Once in 1,000 years.

Seattle will surf catastrophic sea level rise, but that’s not the whole climate change story

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Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, lahars and Californians moving in ... heck, Seattle is screwed in a million ways. But we're lucking out when it comes to the looming disaster of rising sea levels.

Because Seattle rises above the water so steeply, even five to six feet of higher seas by the end of the century, fed by the collapse of polar ice sheets, won't cause the devastation here that will happen elsewhere in the country, according to new research.

And that's great ... unless you own property or run a business in Seattle's Duwamish industrial zone, which Seattle Public Utilities research shows will be the hardest-hit region (see graphics above).

"There's going to be some challenges for the people and businesses who are exposed," said Paul Fleming, who runs the Climate Resiliency Group for Seattle Public Utilities. "It's absolutely going to be a challenge, but relative to Miami it's going to be a different story."

In fact, a new study led by Mathew Hauer, a doctoral student in geography at the University of Georgia, found that some 13 million Americans in 319 coastal counties are "at risk" under a sea rise of nearly six feet.

But of those in danger of being swept over by marine waters, nearly 70 percent live in the southeastern U.S., "suggesting the impacts of (sea level rise) will be highly regionalized in nature." A point well made in this map published by Nature magazine on Monday:

Caption for map: Cumulative projected populations at risk of SLR under the 0.9 m scenario by 2100 for US counties. Counties not included in the study are colored in grey. Published in Nature magazine on March 14, 2016, in the study "Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States." (Used by permission of the study author.)

So, end of story, right?

It will be easier for us to work through, in the lingua franca of city planners, the "PAR scenarios": "Panic, Accuse and Recriminate." Just kidding ... those scenarios for dealing with rising sea water are "Protect, Accommodate and Retreat."

To "Protect," we build sea walls, levees and buy big water pumps.

To "Accommodate" is similar to the old Confucius adage: "The green reed which bends in the wind is stronger than the mighty oak which breaks in a storm."

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Fleming put it like this: "It may mean that you explore land use types that are more able to coexist with some degree of temporary or episodic flooding. ... The Netherlands is really famous for this 'living with water.'" After all, he adds, society is not going to be able to build levees and walls everywhere.

And then there's the more panic-inducing "Retreat" scenario: "Probably the less technically challenging, but probably the biggest politically challenging option. It essentially involves deciding we're pulling up stakes, and how do you do that in a way that doesn't leave people stranded" and broke.

The rain problem

In our conversation about sea level rise and Seattle, Fleming said we'll probably end up with some combination of all three scenarios, though nothing is in writing yet.

However, that's not the end of climate change's challenges for the Seattle region. In addition to losing ground to the Pacific Ocean and Puget Sound, climate models predict heavier rainfall. And guess what? We hit record rainfall by March and it's been raining hard since. So, yeah.

"We're going to lose our land area to the marine waters. That's profound. There's people literally in harm's way and masses of people in some countries," Fleming said.

"On the other hand, changes in rainfall patterns ... is it just going to be a nuisance thing? It's really going to be expensive for built-up urban areas, everywhere that has infrastructure that's under ground. Pulling it out and re-sizing it is going to be disruptive and really expensive. And, if it gets severe enough, you get flooding issues and floods are very damaging for property and for lives."

Total rain, Fleming adds, isn't the big problem. It's how that total was reached. Did it happen gradually with our well-known Seattle drip, or did it come episodically? Our water systems are not set up for frequent big cloudbursts, which we will see more of.

So, it will be expensive and some will pay a big price, but overall Seattle is sitting pretty good for the future. Just kidding! If we all don't stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere, Seattle will be surrounded by acidic ocean water full of jellyfish. Here's a video explaining last summer's stagnant Puget Sound emergency:

Video: Hot Puget Sound: A new view of climate change

And, while migration into Seattle in the near future won't likely be driven by climate problems elsewhere, it's hard to ignore the basic logic that people will move to higher, cooler, wetter ground when the fuller effects of a hot planet kick in. So, there are all those Californians and Texans to worry about ...