THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - July 13, 2011

Managing risk in a European vacuum won't work - the world is much bigger than that. China, Copper, and UST yields matter. As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 29 points or -0.96% downside to 1301 and 1.25% upside to 1330.

Secretary of State Clinton meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Washington

Irish PM says it is time for Europe to respond comprehensively to debt crisis adding that there is no point having a leaders' meeting on Friday that doesn't come up with a conclusive solution. Ireland's problem is with Europe he said

Bullish sentiment increases to 44.1% from 40.9% in the latest US Investor's Intelligence poll; Bearish sentiment decreases to 22.6% from 24.9%

A vacation ownership business royalty fee equal to: a fixed fee of $12.5 million per quarter or $50 million per year, plus two percent of the gross sales price paid to us or our affiliates for initial developer sales of interests in vacation ownership units, plus one percent of the gross sales price paid to us or our affiliates for resales of interests in vacation ownership units, in each case that are identified with or use the Marriott Marks.

The fixed fee will be increased every five years by 50 percent of an inflation rate index, compounded annually.

A residential real estate development business royalty fee equal to: two percent of the gross sales price paid to us or our affiliates for initial developer sales of units of accommodation in our residential real estate business, or “residential units,” plus one percent of the gross sales price paid to us or our affiliates for resales of residential units, in each case that are identified with or use the Marriott Marks.

Marriott anticipates the receipt of an IRS private-letter tax ruling in September, confirming that the distribution of shares of Marriott Vacations Worldwide common stock will not result in the recognition, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, of income, gain or loss by Marriott International or Marriott International shareholders

June 23: Amended Multi-currency Revolving Credit Agreement

Reduced the facility size from $2.404 billion to $1.75 billion

Extended the agreement's expiration from May 14, 2012 to June 23, 2016

May 6: Revision to dividend/stock repurchase

Increased quarterly dividend by 14.3% to $0.10 from $0.0875

Increased stock repurchase program by 25M shares

When combined with the approximately 9M shares remaining from the previous authorization, the company's total outstanding repurchase authorization is approximately 34M shares.

Year-to-date through May 4, the company has repurchased approximately 15M shares for slightly more than $540M.

[Leisure vs. business trends] “Yeah, I think both are reasonably strong. I think the leisure is consumer-driven, broadly consumer confidence is going to be relevant to that and I think there’s more reason to be cautious about that than there is about business travel.”

[Development financing] “Well, if you compare it to the deals that were being done in 2009, we are seeing a higher level of development activity, but it’s all relative. So, I think we were doing 25, maybe 20 – 20 to 25 limited service deals a month in 2007; these are U.S. numbers. I think we probably fell to 5 or 6 a month in the depths and maybe we’re starting to climb out of that, coming back towards 9 or 10 or 11 a month. So, we’re still down 50% to 60% where it was in 2007.”

[US Market share] “According to Smith Travel, Marriott has about 10% market share in the United States.”

[Timeshare inventory] “Timeshare right now has about $1.5 billion of inventory. About $600 million, $700 million that is finished inventory, another $400 million, $500 million is under construction and will be finished soon, and then $100 million or $200 million that’s land. So it’s got lots of runway. It doesn’t have to go out and raise all kind of capital to build assets to sell. It’s got lots of inventory to sell over the next couple of years.”

[Fees/EBITDA] “Based on room growth of about 35,000 rooms and worldwide system-wide RevPAR our growth of about 6% to 8%, we would expect fees to grow to somewhere between $1.3 billion and $1.33 billion, 10% to 13% increase. We would think EBITDA to be around $1.2 billion, about 11% to 16%, just a little bit more than that. And even after spending $500 million to $700 million on capital, we would expect to have approximately $1 billion of free cash flow remaining at the end of the year and we use that cash flow either for opportunistic investments, not contemplated in the $500 million to $700 million, or we’ll return it to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchase.”

[G&A] “You look at our cost structure, it’s G&A, and our G&A is up about 3% to 5% this year. It was up in the first quarter. There was a lot of noise in the first quarter but for the full year we think it will be up around 3% to 5% and if history holds true, it will be closer to the 5% than the 3%.”

[No change in 6-8% guidance] “Yeah, our guidance for as we announced, Dave, and we haven’t changed anything there was 6% to 8% worldwide system-wide. We think that’s what we would expect for this year. And there is really nothing other than that.”

YOUTUBE from Q1 earnings release and call

[Profit margins] “We expect domestic house profit margins will increase 100 to 150 basis points and international house profit margins will increase about 100 basis points for the full year.”

[Timeshare earnings] “We launched some special promotions near the end of the quarter to accelerate sales and expect better segment earnings for the full year than previously guided in February ($35-40MM).”

[International REVPAR] “Our international REVPAR growth is likely to slow from the first quarter pace. The 2010 World Expo will be a tough comp for our Shanghai hotels later this year. For our 31 hotels in the Middle East and 10 hotels in Japan, we expect REVPAR to remain weak although we also expect modest improvement over the current levels later this year. As a result, for the second quarter and the full year, we expect international REVPAR growth to total 5% to 7%. Excluding the Middle East and Japan, we expect international REVPAR will increase by 8% to 10% in the second quarter and 6% to 8% for the full year.”

[Group/transient] “Today, we have significant group business on the books for 2011 and special corporate rate negotiations are complete with rates increasing consistent with our expectation. We see strength in transient business demand and continue to estimate 6% to 8% REVPAR growth for our North American system-wide hotels for the second quarter and the full year.”

[ME/Asia/Europe] “Compared to our full year guidance in February, today we expect our fees in Asia will be better than earlier anticipated, but will be more than offset by weakness in the Middle East. On the owned, leased and other line, we expect to benefit from stronger performance among our European owned and leased hotels as well as a higher termination fee, but we also expect a $10 million decline in profits from Japan.”

[G&A] “In the second quarter, we expect G&A will be impacted by higher costs in international markets as well as higher workouts and legal costs.”

[Interest income] “Interest income for the full year is likely to be a bit lower than we anticipated as we expect we will be repaid early on an outstanding loan. Our share count is coming down quickly as we continue to take advantage of recent share price weakness to repurchase shares.”

[Maintenance spending] “For 2011, $50 million to $100 million in maintenance spending.”

[Market share] “We’ve been in the Washington market for over 50 years and today we have a 33% market share of upper upscale and luxury rooms in our hometown. We’ve been in New York for over 40 years and today we have a 21% market share of the upper upscale and luxury rooms there. But our share of upper upscale and luxury rooms and other global gateway markets has reached impressive levels in much less time…. Today in a highly fragmented industry, we have a 9% share of the upper upscale and luxury market in Paris, 16% share in London, 20% share in Hong Kong, 20% share in Beijing, 21% share in Shanghai and a 40% share in Moscow, and we continue to grow our share in these valuable markets.”

[Japan/ME] “Generally, I would say that our expectations ex-Japan and ex-Middle East are higher than they were a quarter ago, modestly, and that’s basically on strength in Asia and strength in Europe. And so under the company guidance we gave you, you get to the next level of detail. And basically we, compared to a quarter ago, we’re losing probably a full $0.03 a share something like that based on the Middle East and Japan.”

[Spin cost] “One thing we have not put in our guidance, the incremental cost of the timeshare spin. Our intention on that was to, as those numbers become material or meaningful, we’ll point those out as we give you our earnings, because as you can imagine there will be onetime cost just related to the transaction itself.”

[Incentive fee forecast] “So, the numbers are not huge, but we’re talking about $10 million or so of incentive fees that compared to a quarter ago we could not achieve in 2011 because of the turmoil in those markets, and you can do the math on what you would expect the full-year number to be, but that’s a number of points of growth year-over-year…. We mentioned in the first quarter Washington, D.C. was soft, and we do earn incentive fees in Washington, D.C. So that – and we would expect that to grow back as the year goes along. And so given the Middle East that Arne talked about and little bit on Washington, D.C. we’ll probably be between 15% and 20% up in incentive fees.”

[Slowdown in international markets in 2H] “Shanghai would be the most significant, I think. I suppose on average you’ve got comps that get a little tougher as the year goes along I expect to be a piece of it. But generally, we’re not building in an expectation of moderating economic performance in those markets.”

[Booking window] “I think generally we are seeing still not much of a lengthening in the booking window. So, I think group customers, some big meetings maybe are coming back on the books that wouldn’t have been booked certainly a couple of years ago but compared to a few months ago, I wouldn’t say that there’s anything that’s meaningful shift.”

Share

Print

Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

Buying Sweden

Conclusion: Swedish economic fundamentals remain strong (despite being off 2010 levels) and the Riksbank sends a clear message of interest rate tightening to head off inflation. We’re bullish on Sweden’s growth profile, sober fiscal policy, and sovereignty outside of the Eurozone.

We bought Sweden via the etf EWD on 8/9 in the Hedgeye Virtual Portfolio and despite the hit that most European country etfs have taken over recent days on incremental news of Italy’s sovereign debt concerns, we like owning Sweden for a few concise reasons:

GDP – The country has a healthy growth profile of 4.5% this year. While off 2010’s growth rate of 5.4%, Sweden should continue to run a healthy trade surplus and find strong global export demand, especially considering that ~45% of its exports are destine to markets outside of the EU and therefore not tied to the region’s sovereign debt contagion threats. [For comparison, Eurozone 2011 GDP is estimated at 2.0%].

Interest Rates — The Riksbank has proactively raised the benchmark repo rate seven times since July ‘10 to combat inflation, in particular to cool the housing sector. While we haven’t ruled out another 25bp hike into year-end, at 2.00% the Bank has room to cut and maneuver around additional economic headwinds, should they arise.

Inflation – CPI stood at 3.1% in June Y/Y, above the 2.0% target rate, yet the strength of the SEK has helped mitigate imported price inflation, while the statistical office continues to report that domestic cost pressures remain low. As our Q2 theme of Deflation of the Inflation plays out, in particular for food and energy prices, we expect Swedish inflation to move closer to the target; CPI comparisons will also get more difficult as we move in the latter half of 2H2011, which should help to bring down the level.

SEK/Exports — The actions of the Riksbank have strengthen the SEK vs major currencies, and like the CHF, the SEK has provided a safe haven trade as the EUR remains mired in sovereign debt worries. [That said, the SEK has weakened versus the EUR and USD since early March ‘11 and early May ‘11, respectively. YTD the SEK-EUR is down -2.4% and the SEK-USD is up 2.3%]. In general we like the investment profile of a country with a strong currency. While a strong currency is a worry for exporting nations like Sweden, Swedish central bank Governor Stefan Ingves recently stated that the 22% surge in the Krona vs the USD over the past year marks a “normalization” that won’t harm exporters. [We’ve seen a similar positive outcome from Swiss exports despite a white hot CHF vs EUR and USD].

Unemployment – The unemployment rate stands at 7.9% in May, above the 6% level seen before the great recession, but below the Eurozone’s 9.9% or the US’s 9.2%. We think the rate made a top in January of this year and expect the rate to slowly trend lower into year-end.

Risk Metrics – Risk as assessed by sovereign CDS and bond yields is incredibly tame in Sweden, with 5YR Swedish CDS at 32.5bps (vs Germany at 54.3bps, or Greece, Portugal, and Ireland all above 1000bps!). The 10YR yield on Swedish government bonds is 2.686% (vs Germany at 2.711% or Greece, Portugal, and Ireland all over 12%!). Debt as a percentage of GDP is 40% versus 79% in Germany and 144% in Greece. Finally the country is not running a budget deficit.

Headwinds Exist

Despite our bullish outlook on Sweden, it’s clear that growth and optimism are off levels seen in 2H2010. In particular, Sweden’s strong manufacturing sector has slowed, with PMI Manufacturing narrowing to 52.9 in June versus 56.1 in May and Consumer Confidence has dipped, falling to 16.7 in June versus 17.9 in May according to a survey from the National Institute of Economic Research.

Household Credit borrowing also deteriorated, falling to 6.9% in May Y/Y versus 7.2% in April and has trended lower year-to-date. And Retail Sales have declined over the last two months, most recently at -1.1% in May Y/Y.

While we see an independent Swedish bank and currency as a positive, Sweden is not immune to Europe’s sovereign debt contagion, but perhaps just better sheltered. We’ll have to see how sentiment moves on the fiscal imbalances of Italy and Spain, economies far larger with far great banking counterparty exposure than Greece, Portugal, or Ireland.

Below we chart GDP, CPI, and the Riksbank Repo rate for reference.

Matthew Hedrick

Analyst

Share

Print

07/12/11 11:26 AM EDT

More Signs of Margin Pressure

﻿﻿

OTEXA data out this morning supports our view on margins and outlook for the second half. The spread between producer costs and consumer prices continued to widen- short retail.

Share

Print

07/12/11 08:57 AM EDT

TALES OF THE TAPE: SBUX, MCD, TAST, BWLD, RUTH

Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space as well as our fundamental view on select names.

MACRO

Today the National Federation of Independent Business index fell from 90.9 to 90.8 for June (the fourth consecutive month of declines. June’s decline brings the cumulative drop since March to 4 points. The details were mixed-to-poor as hiring plans rose but small-businesses turned more pessimistic on the economy’s prospects. Expectations for the economy to improve over the next six months rose fell sharply in June, declining from -5% to -11% and its worst showing since July 2010.

Also today, the ICSC chain store sales index continued to show strengthening consumer spending in early July. The ICSC chain store sales index has grown strongly in the last three weeks, with a 0.4% gain in the latest week coming on the heels of gains of 1.5% and 2.9%. Hot weather reportedly stimulated sales of seasonal merchandise, outweighing the drag from higher gasoline prices.

The inflation rate in France unexpectedly climbed to the highest in more than 2.5 years, +2.3% y/y, in June as costs for food, energy and services rose. Crude oil prices have jumped 26% over the past year, forcing French motorists to pay more for gasoline and sapping households’ disposable income.

Gasoline prices remain a significant constraint on consumer spending, and are moving in the wrong directions again. Prices were up $0.06 last week, taking the average price of unleaded gasoline to $3.70 per gallon.

QUICK SERVICE

SBUX is rolling out Bistro Boxes today: small meals under 500 calories, such as Chipotle Chicken Wraps and Sesame Noodles, that cost less than $6.

MCD has introduced a new entrecote premium burger in Israel that is branded as the “Big America Series” which includes the Big New York and Big Texas hamburgers. Both will be sold for about $9.20 or $14.50 with fries and a beverage. This is a low price-point in Israel versus boutique chains, according to Ynet News.

TAST was cut to “Outperform” at Raymond James.

CASUAL DINING

BWLD was cut to “Market Perform” from “Outperform” at Raymond James.

RUTH was cut to “Market Perform” at Raymond James.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

Rory Green

Analyst

Share

Print

get free cartoon of the day!

Start receiving Hedgeye's Cartoon of the Day, an exclusive and humourous take on the market and the economy, delivered every morning to your inbox

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

Thank You!

Your request has been received

You have been added to our list and will receive an email shortly.

If you do not receive an email, please check your spam filter, and then email
support@hedgeye.com.
By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive emails from Hedgeye. This is a distinct and separate service form any of our paid service products. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.