Oh, I know you're aware. I've been following your analysis since you started. It's very good. I'm just wondering where the "irrational" came from. Which price, the current one, or the one during the height (if you could call it that) of the recession at 80? I don't think the current price is irrational.

Then your doing something wrong, since the iPhone 4 easily rides out areas where my 3G and 3Gs would drop. And I'm not alone - Anadtech and others have published that the iPhone is demonstratively better than it's predicessors

Not when held "wrong". When held in a natural but "wrong" manner, the iPhone 4 is worse than others.

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Listen to the TWIT episode and become informed. It might save you from looking like a nonsensical idiot.

Or it might not. If you're saying twit reveals why holding the iPhone 4 in a natural manner kills reception, then that doesn't solve anything.

Edit: after having viewed the twit episode, Spencer Webb confirms the iPhone 4 design is at fault, not the bars displayed. He also indicates the same phenomenon occurs when holding a Motorola RAZR in the same death grip, because the RAZR has its antenna at the bottom. However, the RAZR antenna is not exposed and available for intimate contact with the body and the death grip Webb demonstrates in the video is an extreme grip, far from being natural or subtle. This is just like previous iPhone generations. The iPhone 4 still stands out as being different in its behavior.

Unfortunately for Google, beating the stuffing out of Yahoo and Microsoft in search is now considered a fait accompli. But Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), with its iPhone and iPad, has become more of a competitor to Google as of late. And Google's growth, while impressive, is pedestrian when compared to Apple.

Oh, I know you're aware. I've been following your analysis since you started. It's very good. I'm just wondering where the "irrational" came from. Which price, the current one, or the one during the height (if you could call it that) of the recession at 80? I don't think the current price is irrational.

Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.

Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.

For all it's benefits, the unexpected dropped calls, missed calls and missed communications are what's at issue. As a crude analogy, Major League Baseball doesn't condone drug use even if players are setting records. Neither should Apple let stand a flawed design just because it's better most of the time.

Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.

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On the contrary, the "wrong way" is natural for most people and is the manner of holding the iPhone 4 that Apple demonstrates in its own promotional videos. An unnatural cupping of the base of previous iPhones would cause reception problems. The iPhone 4 issue is far different, as it merely requires a light touch at the bottom left to completely kill reception in low-signal areas where other phones (previous generation iPhones) are able to make a call and are not so sensitive to normal handling.

I don't see how it's possible that the "wrong" way is the way for as you say "most people". It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem. I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.

But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.

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We have seen reception drop isn't the problem. It's reception killed (hence death grip). I know of no other manufacturer who has this issue with their phones, nor has any previous model iPhone had this issue. It is no coincidence the iPhone 4 is the only one with an antenna exposed as part of the frame where the user is likely to touch it.

As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well. Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception. So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.

As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.

Apple is only paying a 23% tax rate? How can that be when the corporate rate is 36%? They are obviously not paying their fair share. The government is losing billions of dollars of revenue due to some tricky accounting!

Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...

It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.

The number of bars displayed is indeed software. Apple was "stunned". Gosh, oh, golly. The press repeats the story and naively assumes this will address the antenna design problem. From my own observations and the number of similar observations posted on the 'net, I'm quite certain it won't.

Right, the bars displayed is all about software. I agree with that. The real problem, though, is complete loss of reception when a perfectly good (even if low) signal is available.

Oh, please. When was the last time you saw a cell phone with retractable antenna? We're talking about an issue with the iPhone 4 as compared to all other cell phones manufactured in the past 3 years (to include the original iPhone).

But Apple said the bars issue (which you suggest is the real issue) goes back to the original iPhone and iPhone OS 1.0. And the 3G and 3GS are not and never were so "touchy" as the iPhone 4.

How does the metal being exposed not have anything to do with it? It's unique to the iPhone 4 design, that your body can get so close to the antenna.

Ah, but not so easily and naturally as with the iPhone 4.

Actually, all I'm interested in is having Apple satisfy its customers and make sure they know what the real issue is so that they're not unwittingly bitten by it.

So that you can understand the reception issue, and why Apple is changing the way the signal is shown, read this part of the long iPhone 4 review at AnandTech. If you want to read the entire review, at the bottom of the page is a table of contents, so you can go back and forth as you please.

Oooooh. yea. I saw the $80 price as being very irrational when compared to other stocks in the sector, and its why I put a $230 price target on the stock in November 2008 calling Apple the buy of the century at $80.

Right now, I think Apple is still very undervalued. Its probably worth about $400 a share. The only thing holding Apple back right now is the market. Otherwise if we didn't see the correction in May, i think the stock would be trading somewhere in the $350 range today. If we see similar growth in 2011, though its hard to imagine that we will given the law of large numbers, but if we do see that growth, there will be several $400+ price targets on the stock.

I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.

I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.

Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.

A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.

The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.

I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.

Except that it doesn't seem to be the case for most people, even though some are trying hard to make it seem that way.

My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.

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It's been pointed out that this is what happens mostly to left handed people. As a left handed person, I'm quite aware that we are only abut 15% of the population. Therefor, just going by that, it's a small minority that would have this problem.

There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?

Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.

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I suppose that some right handed people will as well, but then, not all left handed people are having the problem. It also seems to be bad for people with sweaty hands. Not everyone has that problem. Several reviewers have pointed out that they found it either very difficult to duplicate this problem, or could only do so after they moistened their hands. If you looked at the You Tube video of the person with the N97, you would see that that phone has exactly the same problem. There are other videos up that show the problem with other phones. I'm sure many phones whose videos are not up there have the problem as well, but they're older, and so not around now.

But a few people are happily attempting to pretend that this a problem with the 1Phone 4, and ONLY the iPhone 4. It's not.

Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.

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As has also been pointed out many times now in articles, the problem only happens (dropped calls, bad reception, etc) when the signal is very low. Otherwise, even though the bars drop by two or so, reception doesn't change. It's also been pointed out in these articles that the phone is much better than the 3G and 3GS under the same circumstances of weak signal. Where the older phones didn't get or couldn't hold a call, the iPhone 4 does very well.
Holding the phone in the death grip just reduces the performance to about the level of the older phones in those areas of bad reception.

No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.

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So this "problem" is unfortunate, but it's being blown out of proportion.

As I said, look at the You Tube link I posted. If you don't know of any other manufacturer with this problem, it's only because you don't want to know.

Some people, you for example, seem to be delighted to point it out.

No, I'm disappointed that I have to bring up the issue, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the peace of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.

It would be all too easy to let this slide, now that it's been several days since I bought a bumper, but it's just not right.

I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.

Interesting! (The device in the video is an E71, not N97). A quick google search reveals comments from 2008, to the effect that the E71 is the worst Nokia yet.

http://nds1.nokia.com/phones/files/g...71-1_UG_en.pdf
"Your device may have internal and external antennas. Avoid touching the antenna area unnecessarily while the antenna is transmitting or receiving. Contact with antennas affects the communication quality and may cause a higher power level during operation and may reduce the battery life."

I agree with that. as prices go up, at some point, we see a compression. I've been trading since I was 13 in 1963, and I've seen a lot of that happen.

I find it amusing that when a recession hits, people load out of what are very strong companies, and then get hit hard on the way back up. It's always seemed to me that when good companies are hammered, it's a good time to buy - no matter what.

Back in 1986 I think it was, when we had two days of bad drops; the first day I think it was 100 points, and then another 400 or 500, I believe, I had just bought a lot of shares in Hp at 67.5. Over the next months, I was getting called from Hp people asking me if they should sell. I kept telling them to buy. I don't remember exactly how far it fell just now, but I kept buying as it went down. I think the last buy was somewhere around 33. Of course a year or so later, it was back where it started.

A friend of mine had bought Apple shares several years ago, and then bought more later. When they dropped to 80 or so, he sold all 400, except for the 50 he started with. He never asked me at the time! I almost pounded him on the head when he told me a few months ago.

The last time I began to get back into Apple was in mid 2004, when I bought 5,000 shares. I've bought more since. We know where they've gone since. My friend, and broker, has attempted to get me to sell more than a few times since then, saying each time: "You don't really think they're going to break ----, do you?" Yeah, I do.

I'm just sorry I chickened out when they were $3 after I got out of the market entirely in late 1999.

Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.

Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.

But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.

It's not irrational, unless you're talking about the big drop rather than the current price. I was fortunately able to buy more at about 80. Have you looked at the P/E? It's 20. That's not high at all for a growth company. Cisco's is a bit over 19. Even though RIMM's stock is way down from earlier this year, the P/E is still over 23. Google's is also way down, but the P/E is over 20 as well. Look at ARM's P/E, it's over 59!

Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.

My office desk is the first place I tested the phenomenon and it is a cinch to invoke. The second location was in a metropolitan restaurant, where it was also a cinch to invoke.

I'm not trying to say that you aren't seeing the problem. So, are you saying that you dropped a call, or couldn't make one when you tried that/ Or did you just do it to see what happened to the bars?

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There are a lot of wacky posts on the Internet, yes? Lots of FUD and lots of shareholders. Following those initial statements, others pointed out that right handed people are far more likely to hold the phone in their left hand--the death grip hand. Didn't you think it's odd to think right handed people would be most inclined to hold the iPhone in their right hand?

Even if I'm wrong, 15% of 10 million people is still 1.5 million. In the course of a couple years' usage, if you can imagine a problem situation, it's going to occur in that size of population. Missed calls, dropped calls, missed communications. When all one has to do is hold the phone naturally, it's going to happen that much more often. Apple's idea is to reduce the number of bars displayed, so users will be less likely to think the signal is adequate. IMHO that's not a solution.

First of all, from what I'm reading, its said that left handed people that are mostly having the problem. That means the phone would usually be in the right hand. So if it's a problem with the phone in the left hand, then it wouldn't be left handed people. Though, i'm left handed, but bat righty. So we can't always go by that.

But, you're trying to say that this problem happens all the time for these people, and that's not true at all. All reliable reports, not posters, and pardon me, but posters are more likely to exaggerate the problem for effect, have said that the actual problem, that of losing signal, not losing bars, only happens in weak signal areas.

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Right, it's only more of a problem with the iPhone 4. It's the magnitude of the problem and the increased likelihood of it occurring with the iPhone 4.

No, it makes the reception worse than others, including the iPhone 4's ancestors.

Well, you're saying that, but I haven't seen that written anywhere. The reviews pretty much all say that the iPhone 4 reception is much better than the older phones, except where signal strength is low, and then, it's just as bad.

Look, if the 4 is getting calls, and not dropping them where the older phones were, that's much better, isn't it? And if it then drops calls when holding this way, but not when using a case that's really no worse than before, and actually better, where everyone was complaining about AT&T as being the problem. Possibly, it's both? But you have to make a valid test, which you're not doing. You need several phones at the same place, at the same time, as we see the websites doing this. What you're doing is just guessing what it would be like with other phones, but you don't really know for sure. You can't say that my old phone didn't do this or that. You need the old phone there, doing this or that.

It's the comparison of the much better receptivity of the new phone when compared to the old phone that makes the magnitude seem worse. It was EXPECTED that the phones before would lose calls, and not be able to make calls in weak signal areas, which, by the way, can be anywhere. I get no signal, nor does anyone else, in the Friday's near my house when my friends and I go there for lunch.

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No, I'm disappointed that I have to point it out, because I didn't want to have to buy and use a design-obscuring bumper in order to have the piece of mind one should expect from Apple and obtain the consistent performance this device has the potential for. I'm disappointed in the investigative reporting we've seen. I'm disappointed in the amount of misinformation posted and reiterated on the 'net.

I expect you're a shareholder, just like many other AI posters, making you much less objective than you'd like to believe.

I always use cases on my phones, if there are cases for them, and so do many people I know, if not most. There's a pretty big industry making iPhone cases.

But, it just seems to me that those who are making a really big deal about this are only doing so because otherwise, the phone works so well. With the older models, we thought that at any time, we would lose a call, or not be able to make one, but not so with this, which performs so much better. Then, to find that under certain circumstances, the problem is there again, well, uh oh, what's going on? That seems so much worse, but it isn't. It's just that expectations are so much higher.

I wish that this problem wasn't there at all, but if you don't like the phone, then take it back. That's what people do with products that don't meet their expectations. I see no problem here. It's what you would do with any other phone you bought. Why is this different?

I'm pretty objective. You should read the posts of people who complain when I argue that Apple is screwing up.

Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.

Well, something will happen when SJ dies.

Did you read the former Apple employee accounts of what it's like working at Apple? If SJ wants it, it gets done now; otherwise things can take a long time to get done. What happens when SJ isn't around to want anything anymore?

Now, how does Apple intend to appease iPhone 4 customers over the death grip issue? (The "stunning" bars issue is entirely separate). A free bumper or credit for a previously purchased bumper seems reasonable to me.

I didn't know we were talking about iPhone 4 here, but so be it. Just curious, I think I recall you saying in a previous post you were going to pass on this phone for awhile .... have you given in yet ... or are you still waiting?

Apple, bigger than Google, √ ..... bigger than Microsoft, √ The universe is unfolding as it should. Thanks, Apple.

Very nice man. The thing with Apple is there's no telling when the growth will slow indefinitely. They haven't seen two or more consecutive years of slow growth since 2006. We saw a slow growth year in 2009. But 2010 looks explosive again. I think the time to get out of Apple, if you prefer growth stocks, is probably when it posts multiple years of slower growth or when the valuation gets to the point where it becomes obviously overvalued.

Like if it somehow went to $450 or $500 a share on mass hysteria like when Google went to $700, at that time I would probably sell if I were long. Only because if Apple's valuation gets to over inflated, that can only go on for so long before the market takes the stock down.

But I agree with you that the best time to be buying is during times such as the financial crisis. Even if someone bought at $120 in late September 2008, it would be a stellar buy. So buying fundamentally sound stocks on the way down isn't necessarily a bad thing.

I just want to say first, that unless you're on the West coast, you're as mad as we are for being up so late! At least I'm retired. We need you to be sharp in the morning.

We've seen Apple's P/E's as high as the mid fourties, as I remember. I don't get concerned until it's in the mid 30's. then I think it could see a big pullback, as it's got a ways to fall, as that high a P/E can't be supported.

But, if Apple keeps running the net higher as it seems to be doing, then a higher price is indicated.

If it does hit $63.5 billion or so, as you believe, it could hit $75 to $80 fiscal 2011. As long as margins aren't eroded by costs in manufacturing; I see Foxcon convinced Apple to allow them to move at least some production away, then margins will be around 38 to 41. With that growth in sales, we'll see a corresponding increase in net, and that leads to...

If the market double dips, as some are saying, everything will be backed up another 9 months to a year in stock pricing, and sales will stutter as it did in later 2008 and early 2009.

Do you think that the estimate of 7.5 million phone sales this quarter because of lack of product in the channel is realistic? Most everyone is thinking this could be a record quarter, except Huberty and a couple others.

Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.

Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.

Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.

After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?

Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?

A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?

Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.

Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?

Or AMZN, better yet. One thing you learn being an AAPL investor over time is, no matter what else happens, the markets are never going to be fully convinced that Apple's success story can continue.

/agreed. Its frustrating. I've had to deal with this for years. Apple is really an easy company to analyze, and its really sad that the market simply can't get things right. Look at how quickly the financial media can turn against Apple. During the financial crisis, I saw countless of reports on CNBC that were just patently incorrect.

The whole damn market couldn't even come to grips with non-GAAP accounting measures and ended up valuating Apple based on its GAAP earnings. This lead to a valuation that was much lower than almost all other tech stocks. See this article:

That was literally the most frustrating issue I had to deal with. It felt like a bunch of little children ran the entire stock market, and I was left having to try and defend Apple against the most insane bullshit reporting imaginable. The decision by Apple to use the subscription method of accounting was a huge contributing factor to its $80 stock price during the crisis.

Before anyone suggests otherwise, please note that I've debated this issue thoroughly at the time. Apple could have chosen a different system even under GAAP accounting. But chose not to due to offering free software upgrades to the iPhone. You can see a summary of the issues here:

Did you read the former Apple employee accounts of what it's like working at Apple? If SJ wants it, it gets done now; otherwise things can take a long time to get done. What happens when SJ isn't around to want anything anymore?

That's not something we should be speculating about, It's too gruesome. Right now, he seems to be healthy. He's traveling around the world again, going to store openings, and should be here for some time yet. That's all we can say.

Apple has a small number of products for a company its size. They can, and do focus on that small number, which is why they do so well.

Many other companies have hundreds of products. none of them are world beaters, and they don't have to be. But as Apple's lines are few, and small, every product needs attention.

So far, Jobs seems to have learned from his earlier mistakes. So if he thinks a project is worthwhile, it usually is. That pretty good focus. A few years ago, I didn't believe Apple was focussed enough, now, sometimes, I think that maybe they're too focussed.

But then, they come out with the iPad, and I think they've got it just right.

I didn't know we were talking about iPhone 4 here, but so be it. Just curious, I think I recall you saying in a previous post you were going to pass on this phone for awhile .... have you given in yet ... or are you still waiting?

Well, the thinking is that Amazon can't maintain its growth unless they do something with the Kindle and e-books, as they may lose their early lead.

Apple, I believe, has a long way to go. Long way these days means three years.

After that, who knows. Apple has pulled itself into an expectation of coming up with explosive growth products. What if that's not possible going forward?

Apple doesn't seem to have an interest in having products that just have nice sales, except for accessories for major products. How many other categories can they get into that they can exploit in that way?

A connected Tv is the next area in which they can make a mark as some seem to think. What then?

Automotive products? Of what kind? Surely not car stereos! MS has got a big part of the auto industry sewed up with Windows embedded products for the auto OS. Could they make a move there? That would be very difficult to get into.

Where else would they go that wouldn't just be a whimsical suggestion?

Andy, any ideas here?

I've always said that I think AMZN is one of the most over valued horseshit companies out there. I really don't understand how the market continues to give AMZN such a rich valuation. You know that during the entire financial crisis, AMZN maintained over a 39 P/E while Apple's P/E was 13? This was at a time when Apple's growth rate was more explosive than AMZN's on a non-GAAP basis. Its a sore subject with me because it was really frustrating to see the market radically dump AAPL instead of AMZN. During P/E compression in the financial crisis, fund managers preferred to sustain AMZN's 39 P/E while keeping AAPLs at very distressed levels.

Personally, I think AMZN is soon going to join RIMM in the doghouse once the market begins to realize that its simply too overvalued. Why the hell does AMZN have a 50 p/e again? I'll post a chart in a moment. Let me upload it to flicker. Here it is:

Look at that OUTRAGEOUS price to cash ration on Apple when it was trading in the low $100 range. It got even more compressed in the $80's. This was really the buy of the century. If we ever get a financial crisis like this again, I'm going All-In on Apple.

That was literally the most frustrating issue I had to deal with. It felt like a bunch of little children ran the entire stock market, and I was left having to try and defend Apple against the most insane bullshit reporting imaginable. The decision by Apple to use the subscription method of accounting was a huge contributing factor to its $80 stock price during the crisis.

It's very funny you should mention this! I imagine you remember at the time, it was said that investors would be extremely happy at the subscription accounting, as it would give Apple a steady income, and an increasing one, as phone sales took off. This was SUPPOSED to help lift the stock. It's interesting in how it didn't, and how then it was being called a drag.

I've always said that I think AMZN is one of the most over valued horseshit companies out there. I really don't understand how the market continues to give AMZN such a rich valuation. You know that during the entire financial crisis, AMZN maintained over a 39 P/E while Apple's P/E was 13? This was at a time when Apple's growth rate was more explosive than AMZN's on a non-GAAP basis. Its a sore subject with me because it was really frustrating to see the market radically dump AAPL instead of AMZN. During P/E compression in the financial crisis, fund managers preferred to sustain AMZN's 39 P/E while keeping AAPLs at very distressed levels.

Personally, I think AMZN is soon going to join RIMM in the doghouse once the market begins to realize that its simply too overvalued. Why the hell does AMZN have a 50 p/e again? I'll post a chart in a moment. Let me upload it to flicker. Here it is:

Look at that OUTRAGEOUS price to cash ration on Apple when it was trading in the low $100 range. It got even more compressed in the $80's. This was really the buy of the century. If we ever get a financial crisis like this again, I'm going All-In on Apple.

It's why I've never invested in Amazon. They've had remarkable growth though. I remember those small Ads for the bookstore, stating they had 800 thousand books. But profits were hard to come by for years. I must admit though, that Bezos did the right thing in re-investing profits early on.

But going forward, I don't see things as being that easy. Retail is tough. And if we get that internet sales tax being proposed, well, what is that going to do to things?

I'm not trying to say that you aren't seeing the problem. So, are you saying that you dropped a call, or couldn't make one when you tried that/ Or did you just do it to see what happened to the bars?

Loss of all bars in ~20 seconds (my guess is a 20 second moving average of signal strength is displayed). Speedtest does nothing--it times out. If Speedtest is allowed to start, the throughput displayed by the program goes to hell as soon as the antenna gap is touched. This happens routinely at my desk when holding the bare phone while not on Wi-Fi. It also happened repeatedly at a restaurant when I showed it to a colleague, who was quite impressed with the behavior elicited by a simple touch of the finger to the antenna gap.
I don't have much experience with evaluating iPhone 4 voice calls from my desk. Before I knew about the death grip, though, one voice call at that location was oddly broken up and soon dropped; I was probably holding the phone naturally in my left hand--i.e., with the death grip. This was one uncontrolled incident. No way is a call going to go through or an existing call not going to be dropped when the phone displays "No Service", which often happens if I hold the death grip at my desk for very long.

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First of all, from what I'm reading, its said that left handed people that are mostly having the problem. That means the phone would usually be in the right hand. So if it's a problem with the phone in the left hand, then it wouldn't be left handed people. Though, i'm left handed, but bat righty. So we can't always go by that.

Let's cut through the noise, can we? Apple says not to hold the phone naturally. It's a problem when the phone is held in the left hand with the antenna gap against the base of the thumb. It doesn't matter if you're left handed or right handed. What matters is how you hold it. The left and right handedness only becomes an issue if you're Apple (or Apple shareholder) trying to evaluate liability.

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But, you're trying to say that this problem happens all the time for these people, and that's not true at all.

NO. That's not what I said or even tried to say. Your multimillion dollar AAPL bias is showing.

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All reliable reports, not posters, and pardon me, but posters are more likely to exaggerate the problem for effect, have said that the actual problem, that of losing signal, not losing bars, only happens in weak signal areas.

I believe my office desk is in a weak signal area. Yup. I concur. That's one of the criteria for seeing the extreme, unexpected behavior. The signal strength at my office desk is not near zero, though. I see 4-5 bars there. Even if the next release of iOS 4 drops the count by 2, I'll still see 2-3 bars.

Even the current iPhone formula for displaying bars will show no bars if there is no signal, as happens when I invoke the death grip at my desk for more than just a few seconds.

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The reviews pretty much all say that the iPhone 4 reception is much better than the older phones, except where signal strength is low, and then, it's just as bad.

My reading of the reviews is that the iPhone 4 reception is perhaps uniformly better than with any other phone, except when the 4 is held naturally in the death grip without a case, in which case reception is worse than with many other phones. Even Walt Mossberg was perplexed by the iPhone 4's erratic behavior compared to his 3GS, in spite of the 4 displaying more bars in the same location. Ignore the number of bars displayed, though, and what you might rightfully surmise from his review is that the iPhone 4 can be less reliable than the 3GS under virtually identical conditions.

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Look, if the 4 is getting calls, and not dropping them where the older phones were, that's much better, isn't it?

Yes, it's the loss of reception when holding the bare phone naturally that's an issue. Is that really so hard to comprehend?

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It's the comparison of the much better receptivity of the new phone when compared to the old phone that makes the magnitude seem worse.

Not for me and not for Mossberg.

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It was EXPECTED that the phones before would lose calls, and not be able to make calls in weak signal areas, which, by the way, can be anywhere. I get no signal, nor does anyone else, in the Friday's near my house when my friends and I go there for lunch.

I always use cases on my phones, if there are cases for them, and so do many people I know, if not most. There's a pretty big industry making iPhone cases.

For some reason, after 3 years of making iPhones (and even more years iPods), Apple is now in the iPhone case business.

With a case on the iPhone 4, from my own trials at my office desk and elsewhere, I believe it's highly unlikely a reception problem will be experienced due to the antenna design. I'm sure Apple has entered statistics on case usage into their liability formula.

I rarely used a case on each of the 3 previous models of iPhone. I feel compelled to do so always with the 4 and yet had no plans to buy one.

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But, it just seems to me that those who are making a really big deal about this are only doing so because otherwise, the phone works so well.

That's part of it, sure. Another part is that the design was presented as something to show off. A design that doesn't need a case and as a matter of opinion looks worse in a case (which also costs extra). Well, surprise, surprise: the design also performs worse without a case--in some situations, far worse--and Apple isn't going to acknowledge it other than to say "don't hold it the way we do in the promotional pics and videos or the way you would naturally, at least not without a case" and "to take care of all other situations, we'll just lower your expectations of when the signal is strong enough for calling or data".

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With the older models, we thought that at any time, we would lose a call, or not be able to make one, but not so with this, which performs so much better. Then, to find that under certain circumstances, the problem is there again, well, uh oh, what's going on? That seems so much worse, but it isn't. It's just that expectations are so much higher.

So you're seeing the problem, too? Even with a case?
/sarcasm

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I wish that this problem wasn't there at all, but if you don't like the phone, then take it back.

Sorry, I don't have your millions or the time to mess with recovering my previous 3GS, dealing with AT&T and its fees, etc.

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That's what people do with products that don't meet their expectations. I see no problem here. It's what you would do with any other phone you bought. Why is this different?

Not when held "wrong". When held in a natural but "wrong" manner, the iPhone 4 is worse than others.

That's not what Anadtech and others are widely reporting - but you go ahead and keep running with it...

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Edit: after having viewed the twit episode, Spencer Webb confirms the iPhone 4 design is at fault, not the bars displayed. He also indicates the same phenomenon occurs when holding a Motorola RAZR in the same death grip, because the RAZR has its antenna at the bottom. However, the RAZR antenna is not exposed and available for intimate contact with the body and the death grip Webb demonstrates in the video is an extreme grip, far from being natural or subtle. This is just like previous iPhone generations. The iPhone 4 still stands out as being different in its behavior.

*All* current cell phones have the behavior because of the antenna placement - some of which is driven by FCC regs and some of which is driven by consumers who refuse to deploy external antenna's when they were provided.

Did you conveniently skip over that part of the discussion?

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Conclusion: Apple chose form over function.

Only because the consumer forced them to. Spencer talks quite plainly about this with the Motorola STAR TAC phone - if you didn't pull the external antenna, it switched to an internal antenna. Eventually manufacturers just left the external antenna's off as the majority of users didn't use them. Then the FCC regs limiting the exposure of radiation to the head kicked in and the antennas migrated to the bottom of the phone - where your hand tends to be!

He also explains why the exposed antenna is effectively a non-issue, but you can continue to harp on that as well - it still won't change the laws of physics.

As an iPhone 4 owner, I can unequivocally state that in real world use (as opposed to theory and fixation with onscreen signal meters) the iPhone 4 outperforms my 3Gs by a wide margin. I now maintain calls through areas that were consistent dead zones to my 3Gs. I have yet to experience a dropped call - they were building in frequency on my 3Gs in the last couple of months enough to be a serious annoyance.

My experience is not unique. The iPhone 4 is a better phone, hysteria over the signal strength indicator and uninformed angst over the "exposed" metal aside. You might want to go back and find the parts where he talks about the antenna and the differences in radio frequency radiation vs. normal electrical current. The gap between the antennas isn't to prevent them from "shorting" but to tune for the frequency/radio wave size. I might not be a wiz in physics, but even I can see the points he is raising in the differences between radio waves and electrical current.

I didn't know we were talking about iPhone 4 here, but so be it. Just curious, I think I recall you saying in a previous post you were going to pass on this phone for awhile .... have you given in yet ... or are you still waiting?

I placed my order on-line in the first few hours of availability and received it on my doorstep the day before the official release.

It was not my intention to hijack the thread. I'm sorry for that. I only wish to keep this issue alive, because I don't believe Apple is doing right by customers.

Of course they have lives. Their lives will be even better and longer if the cover-up ends sooner rather than later. Cover-ups have a tendency to cause more harm than the original issue.

That is highly inflammatory and completely baseless. Nothing has been covered up. As to the specfic issues with the Antenna the problems seen are the same as seen on any cell phone or RF based device. Nothing unusual is happening here at all.

Even the shorting if the two antennas via a finger across that small gap isn't surprising with respect to the phones behavior. The fix here is simple, follow Apples advice and DON'T DO THAT!

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Sadly, you are misinformed.

Nope he called it pretty cleanly, the noise on the net sounds almost exactly like it is coming from the Obama entitlement culture. It is mass hysteria from people who don't have a clue as to what is going on.

The facts are clear the new iPhone actually works better than any previous iPhone in weak signal conditions.

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Incidentally, smoking can be hazardous to your health.

???? What was that all about????

By the way have you ever used a device with an antenna, a FM radio perhaps or a TV. What happens to the signal quality as you move the device around?

I agree! Lets pile on the regressive taxation on those poor bastards pulling in minimum wage. So what if they would have to pay the tax on their entire income, which they have to spend on things like food and heat! And so what if the Richie Riches of the world would only have to pay a small portion of the tax on their income, since they only have to use a small part of their income on consumption! I say lets get rid of that damn minimum wage too! That way we can really pay the scum what they're worth. Truly a recipe for a stable, happy society.

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Originally Posted by DocNo42

Want to eliminate tricky accounting? Eliminate production taxes and switch to use tax. Drop all other taxes and just have a national sales tax. Illegal alien? Creative Accounting? Irrelevant. You consume, you pay tax. Everyone pays the same share. It simplifies the system, eliminates a bunch of bureaucratic red tape...

It will never happen since 90% of the time when people are crowing about "fair" payment of taxes, they want those better off than them to simply pay more than they do. Too many people like the current system because it's so complicated it's easy to manipulate.

The drop in signal from holding the phone with your left hand arguably remains a problem. Changing the bars visualization may indeed help mask it, and to be fair the phone works fine all the way down to -113 dBm, but it will persist - software updates can change physics as much as they can change hardware design. At the end of the day, Apple should add an insulative coating to the stainless steel band, or subsidize bumper cases. It's that simple.

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Originally Posted by DocNo42

That's not what Anadtech and others are widely reporting - but you go ahead and keep running with it...

That's not what Anadtech [sic] and others are widely reporting - but you go ahead and keep running with it...

Which Anandtech or other articles are you running with?
In the following Anandtech post, they report cellular signal attenuation on average is far worse with the bare iPhone 4 when cupping or holding naturally than for the iPhone 3GS or HTC Nexus One.

btw: Anandtech mentions using an "insulative coating" to solve the attenuation problem, which shows just how little they understood the situation.

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*All* current cell phones have the behavior because of the antenna placement - some of which is driven by FCC regs and some of which is driven by consumers who refuse to deploy external antenna's when they were provided.

Did you conveniently skip over that part of the discussion?

Nope, but your bias conveniently ignores when I stated that it's the magnitude of the problem with the 4 that makes it unique among iPhones and others.

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He also explains why the exposed antenna is effectively a non-issue, but you can continue to harp on that as well - it still won't change the laws of physics.

Spencer says Apple chose form over physics. I didn't need him to tell me that though--it was my very first thought when Jobs announced the frame was the antenna. Frankly, I was initially stunned by the design, but on second thought I believed Apple must have found some ingenious way to avoid attenuation and so I didn't give it any further consideration.

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As an iPhone 4 owner, I can unequivocally state that in real world use (as opposed to theory and fixation with onscreen signal meters) the iPhone 4 outperforms my 3Gs by a wide margin. I now maintain calls through areas that were consistent dead zones to my 3Gs. I have yet to experience a dropped call - they were building in frequency on my 3Gs in the last couple of months enough to be a serious annoyance.

My experience is not unique. The iPhone 4 is a better phone, hysteria over the signal strength indicator and uninformed angst over the "exposed" metal aside. You might want to go back and find the parts where he talks about the antenna and the differences in radio frequency radiation vs. normal electrical current. The gap between the antennas isn't to prevent them from "shorting" but to tune for the frequency/radio wave size. I might not be a wiz in physics, but even I can see the points he is raising in the differences between radio waves and electrical current.

I can't seem to get my bars to drop, does this mean I have Apple stock I'm not aware of?

No, it simply means your iPhone 4 is enclosed in a case, you're in a strong signal area, you're not holding it comfortably in your left hand, or you're wearing gloves; and it means you also lack an understanding of the difference between signal and noise, however you do have a sense of humor.

Loss of all bars in ~20 seconds (my guess is a 20 second moving average of signal strength is displayed). Speedtest does nothing--it times out. If Speedtest is allowed to start, the throughput displayed by the program goes to hell as soon as the antenna gap is touched. This happens routinely at my desk when holding the bare phone while not on Wi-Fi. It also happened repeatedly at a restaurant when I showed it to a colleague, who was quite impressed with the behavior elicited by a simple touch of the finger to the antenna gap.
I don't have much experience with evaluating iPhone 4 voice calls from my desk. Before I knew about the death grip, though, one voice call at that location was oddly broken up and soon dropped; I was probably holding the phone naturally in my left hand--i.e., with the death grip. This was one uncontrolled incident. No way is a call going to go through or an existing call not going to be dropped when the phone displays "No Service", which often happens if I hold the death grip at my desk for very long.

Ok.

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Let's cut through the noise, can we? Apple says not to hold the phone naturally. It's a problem when the phone is held in the left hand with the antenna gap against the base of the thumb. It doesn't matter if you're left handed or right handed. What matters is how you hold it. The left and right handedness only becomes an issue if you're Apple (or Apple shareholder) trying to evaluate liability.

I really don't know what you're talking about when you say "naturally". As most reports say that they had to attempt to do this, I can only assume that's what natural for you, is not natural for all others. So we CAN cut through the noise. Not everyone has this problem. and it seems as though most don't.

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NO. That's not what I said or even tried to say. Your multimillion dollar AAPL bias is showing.

Then explain what you did mean, because that's how it reads.

And please, so far, even though we've been disagreeing, it's been kept at a proper level, stop being insulting! We don't need that. I'm going from all of what I've read, which is plenty. I'm not being biased. Do you want me to post a couple of dozen links?

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I believe my office desk is in a weak signal area. Yup. I concur. That's one of the criteria for seeing the extreme, unexpected behavior. The signal strength at my office desk is not near zero, though. I see 4-5 bars there. Even if the next release of iOS 4 drops the count by 2, I'll still see 2-3 bars.

Well, if you read that account I published from Anandtech, you'd have seen why the number of bars is so meaningless, and why Apple is changing it, as they and others have recommended.

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Even the current iPhone formula for displaying bars will show no bars if there is no signal, as happens when I invoke the death grip at my desk for more than just a few seconds.

If there's no signal, or it's so low as to be equivalent to no signal, then, of course, nothing will get through. The problem is that otherwise, the bars are optimistic, and misleading. You think you're getting a good signal, when you aren't. Then you press it, and the bars drop to the bottom, and your call drops. The truth is that it should have had a couple of bars at the most at that point . When you grip it, it drops down one or two more bars to nothing, then the signal leaves. That doesn't seem to be as drastic as it does now.

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My reading of the reviews is that the iPhone 4 reception is perhaps uniformly better than any other phone, except when it's held naturally in the death grip without a case, in which case reception is worse than with many other phones. Even Walt Mossberg was perplexed by the iPhone 4's erratic behavior compared to his 3GS, in spite of the 4 displaying more bars in the same location. Ignore the number of bars displayed, though, and what you might rightfully surmise from his review is that the iPhone 4 can be less reliable than the 3GS under virtually identical conditions.

Others say differently. Here's David Pogue's take on this, as he tried to reproduce the problem, and he's not alone:

Yes, it's the loss of reception when holding the bare phone naturally that's an issue. Is that really so hard to comprehend?

It's the comparison of the much better receptivity of the new phone when compared to the old phone that makes the magnitude seem worse.

Not for me and not for Mossberg.[/quote]

Because you keep insisting that it's the natural way of holding it, when that's clearly not the case for everyone, just for some. and the problem can be made to go away with a small adjustment of the way you hold it, and yes, a dreaded case.

Some people can reproduce it, and if you read the Pogue link, many others can't.

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For some reason, after 3 years of making iPhones (and even more years iPods), Apple is now in the iPhone case business.

With a case on the iPhone 4, from my own trials at my office desk and elsewhere, I believe it's highly unlikely a reception problem will be experienced due to the antenna design. I'm sure Apple has entered statistics on case usage into their liability formula.

I rarely used a case on each of the 3 previous models of iPhone. I feel compelled to do so always with the 4 and yet had no plans to buy one.

As I say, not a big deal, as most people use cases. If that doesn't work for you, take it back. Its a phone, There are others. You can join the Android crowd, become a Crackberry user, find a Nokia, or even wait for the Windows phone 7.

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That's part of it, sure. Another part is that the design was presented as something to show off. A design that doesn't need a case and as a matter of opinion looks worse in a case (which also costs extra). Well, surprise, surprise: the design also performs worse without a case--in some situations, far worse--and Apple isn't going to acknowledge it other than to say "don't hold it the way we do in the promotional pics and videos or the way you would naturally, at least not without a case" and "to take care of all other situations, we'll just lower your expectations of when the signal is strong enough for calling or data".

Nothing is perfect. One reason why this has happened, according to speculation by some writers, is due to the obsession with secrecy. All the people off campus, were using those bulky cases to make them look like 3GS's. Of course this problem wouldn't have been happening. on campus, you can bet that reception is excellent. No one tests phones while being held in a hand. Strange, right?

But this still isn't just an Apple problem, as you now know.

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So you're seeing the problem, too? Even with a case?
/sarcasm

That wasn't very successful on your part. just so you know.

I don't have a serious problem, but occasionally, I do get a dropped call. But then, so do friends with Verizon, Sprint, and T-Mobile. None using iPhones. Should they all have class action suits? It's a fact of life.

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Sorry, I don't have your millions or the time to mess with recovering my previous 3GS, dealing with AT&T and its fees, etc.

I'm not saying that you should. i am saying that your "tests" are not complete, and are going by memory. That's why I find the web sites that do it that way to be more reliable. I don't deny your problems, but your comparisons are not exact, just what you think. It's not your fault, but it's not reliable when comparing it to the older model.

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It was designed and sold by Apple.

What does that have to do with it? It's a product, and should be evaluated as any other product. Most of us here use Apple products, and some of us have stock. Fine, but then, most of us criticize Apple when we feel they've screwed up. I do think they blew it with this. I just don't see the issue as being as bad as some are stating. That's all. Apple or no. And since it's just a product, in a field where there are a lot of products, you can bring it back.

You're statement is ridiculous. I get plenty of criticism for knocking Apple, which I've done a fair amount of lately. It's hard to believe you only read the posts I make praising them. Unless you tune the others out.

I don't have to agree with you position, which is of just a small minority of users. Apple has now sold over 2 million of these around a fair part of the world. If this problem was as serious as you say it is, we would be hearing far more than we do. If the tech press wasn't so thrilled to be able to have something bad to say for a change about Apple, this would hardly have gotten any press at all, as it doesn't with other manufacturers.

Speak of what you know. Don't tell me that I'm biased just because I don't agree with you.

I really don't know what you're talking about when you say "naturally". As most reports say that they had to attempt to do this, I can only assume that's what natural for you, is not natural for all others. So we CAN cut through the noise. Not everyone has this problem. and it seems as though most don't.

I thought I was quite clear, the manner in which the iPhone 4 is held in Apple's promo materials is precisely the "natural" way I've referenced. No, that's not the only "natural" way to hold it. It's a natural way, and it's not surprisingly the way Apple chose to have its hand models hold the phone. It's comfortable and relaxed.

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Then explain what you did mean, because that's how it reads.

Huh? I just did explain, in the previous post. The death grip works really well in my office--where signal strength is not high but I've used previous models of iPhone just fine in years past--not just in some vale I pass through transiently on the way to work.

Is it any wonder the blogs and geek sites are rife with noise on this issue? A few do seem to be properly skeptical of any software fix.

Pogue demonstrates no understanding of the situation, just knowledge that many conflicting postings have been made about it. He even suggests Apple's 30-day return policy should be enough to mollify concerned customers, when there's far more involved in returning an iPhone than just Apple's return policy. How helpful is that? Why is he cited as an authority on this subject?

Mossberg was befuddled as to how the iPhone 4, with its apparently better reception, was so much less reliable. What say you about that?

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Well, if you read that account I published from Anandtech, you'd have seen why the number of bars is so meaningless, and why Apple is changing it, as they and others have recommended.

If the bars are so meaningless (which I agree with), then why is Apple changing the formula for their display? It's all about changing expectations and IMHO distracting from the real issue. The problem is, if users hold a bare iPhone 4 in a natural manner (you know what I mean!), they'll maybe see zero bars and "No Service", when a 3GS held similarly could have made the call or sent/received the message. Pity.

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But this still isn't just an Apple problem, as you now know.

It's more of a problem for Apple, though, and a bigger problem for Apple than it was before. Cupping previous iPhone models was required to have a significant effect on reception. With the naked iPhone 4, just holding it normally can have a significant effect.

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I don't deny your problems, but your comparisons are not exact, just what you think. It's not your fault, but it's not reliable when comparing it to the older model.

While my results are not quantitative (other than seeing bars go from 4-5 to 0 and throughput go to 0), Anandtech's attenuation measurements are consistent with what I've seen, as are the early observations of Walt Mossberg's. If you've ever gone out with the iPhone 4 and not had it in a case, you've quite possibly experienced the same issue--and not even known it. Instead of panning the relevance of my experience, you should be trying your darnedest to understand how and when it happens.

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Speak of what you know. Don't tell me that I'm biased just because I don't agree with you.

Oh, come on. Who isn't biased? In the case of anything to do with Apple, of course, you have millions more reasons than most people to be biased in certain directions. As a long time Apple customer, I have countless thousands of reasons to be biased in perhaps other directions. Why does this bother you so, when you're having the last laugh?