A painting called London Skyline by Karen Keogh. Photograph: Karen Keogh for the Guardian

New data on population flows in and and out of the capital largely confirm long-term trends often forgotten or ignored, not least during the recent, too-simplistic "driven-from-the-city-by-wealthy-foreigners" housing crisis narrative. Throughout this century, more people have left London for other parts of the UK than have arrived here from it, mostly moving into home ownership. Claims that an unprecedented exodus is underway need to be treated with care.

Office for National Statistics figures covering the year ended June 2012 show that about 250,000 people moved out during that time. That outflow was slightly higher than in the previous twelve months and the highest since 2009. But it was lower than in 2008 and than the high of 270,000 recorded back in 2004.

Meanwhile, 195,000 people moved into London from elsewhere in England and Wales - much the same as in the previous three years, and slightly higher than the 175,000 who came in from overseas. Meanwhile, outward migration from London to other countries was around 110,000.

All in all, then, about 10,000 more people moved in to London from elsewhere (370,000) than moved out (360,000) - not much of a difference. So how come the capital's population is rising so incredibly fast, and has recently topped 8.3 million? Yes, it's the birth rate, stupid: 134,037 babies were born here in the year to mid-June 2012, according to the ONS estimate. This is a city that breeds.