Ian Copsey is a veteran analyst having begun his career in Forex 28 years ago. He is author of "Integrated Technical Analysis" and his new groundbreaking book "Harmonic Elliott Wave." He provides his popular daily forecast “The Harmonic Daily Forecaster” through his website www.harmonic-ewave.com.

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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Monday, August 22, 2011

Twists and turns, blind alleys and dead ends…

Just as I thought things should progress the market dodged a decision and brought the Dollar back into range to smother the breakout I had been looking for. I still think it will come but whether the current corrections will reverse into a directional wave or just extend the series of corrective consolidation patterns is something that needs observation and patience.

I can see from the equity markets that the fragility persists and may even see new lows this week. That situation is still pretty much in line with my larger picture and arguably could make the correction in the U.S. markets more pinpoint in terms of targets. It is quite possible that this general state of unease will continue to hinder any real progress in the currency markets and could even extend through the entire week. At best, any directional moves may well only generate modest new Dollar lows that would still require corrections before the larger downtrend develops.

That picture has even been seen in USDJPY which had a pretty whippy day on Friday, finally reaching my 75.70-00 target. However, the manner of the decline made it clear that this was not part of the downward move but merely a correction. However, even so, very clearly it is setting itself up for a tidy downtrend. That obviously has implications for EURJPY that may well fuel the recycling back to 114.17. It has made a big struggle of the recovery so does hold risks still but once the downtrend begins it could be quite a solid decline.

USDCHF is playing around as well now… possibly a dip first before rallying to the full extent of the correction I am anticipating. GBPUSD doesn’t seem able to hold on to gains… quite frustrating… but it too seems to be playing around with corrective patterns that have been slowing the bullish process. I still remain overall bullish but any progress over the next 2-3 days could still be slow and choppy.

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DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. It must be understood that Forex trading involves substantial risk of losses as well as profits. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

About Ian

I have been around in financial market for over 30 years, the last 23 years as a technical analyst. I focus heavily on price development and structure as it is the only way to generate accurate support and resistance. I use my own adapted form of Elliott Wave along with derivatives of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios to derive support and resistance. I provide a range of reports covering daily & weekly Forex, U.S. Indices.