Monday, November 29, 2010

After doling
out $5.3 million to try to talk Chiba Lotte’s shortstop into moving from the Far
East to the Midwest, the Twins are in the midst of a 30-day negotiating process
with Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s agents. What fans are interesting in is what may be
expected from what could be the Twins’ newest import.

While we live
in an age where you can just about anything you want from the annals of the
internet (including videos of, ahem, well, subtract an “n” from one of the words
prior to this parenthetical…), we still do not have a comprehensive data available
for imports from Japan. There are no sites like Fangraphs.com or
Baseball-Reference.com that carries over the pertinent Nippon Professional
Baseball information – like batted ball splits or platoon splits –needed to
making analysis on what a player’s conversion rate might be. If there were, it
might have been possible for the Mets to vet Kaz Matsui before acquiring him
(although, by some ratings systems, he is still ranks as the fourth-best player
ever in Japan).

For the most
part, the common accepted belief is that the NPB is a step below major league
caliber play – at best, a AAA with a half-A. Still, with the exception of
Hideki Matsui, there has not been a player from Japan whose power skills made
the trip across the Pacific with him. (Of course, the short right field porch
at Yankee Stadium was very welcoming for Matsui who went from 50 home runs in
Tokyo to 16 in NYC his first season.) Both Akinori Iwamura and Kaz Matsui hit
over 30 home runs while in the Nippon league but failed to hit out of the
single-digits in the majors. It would appear that power is a high tariff in the
United States on goods from Japan.

Perhaps
because Nishioka does not possess that particular skill but has several other
universal skills like line drive tendencies and a strong zone acumen that he
would find greater success than his other two infield predecessors – who have
since returned back to their homeland as their careers on this side of the
globe has fizzled. With little hard data available on Nishioka’s career, we can
use this video that
has circulated around recently, to see what it might reveal about his potential.

Old-fashioned scouting with new
fangled video techniques:

As you will
see below, he attacks the pitch well with a level swing from both sides of the
plate. His hands/weight remains back while he takes a large stride and his hips
and hands explode at the same pace through the zone up to the point of contact –
which is out in front in both examples.

Unlike the
Matsuis or the Cubs’ Kosuke Fukudome – three of Japan’s power-hitting imports -
Nishioka stays relatively low while the other three remain upright with a short
stance before the pitch. They all share the same leg-lift and stride, however,
Nishioka’s appears to be longer (especially from the left-side), setting up a
wider base during his swing. Clearly, he’s not trying to leverage the ball for
elevation like the other trio did in Japan, rather, he’s hitting the ball on a
rope.

With the torque
and involvement of his lower-half, you get the impression that these are not
fliners (fly ball/liner combination) or slapped grounders but rather inciting
some charge in the ball. He also gets out of the box faster than a man who has
just been discovered by a jealous husband so with good speed he probably beats
out numerous infield hits. As such, without any access to batted ball data to
base this upon, making the assumption based on his mechanics, Nishioka is
probably above-average in the line drive and ground ball categories – propelling
him to that fairly impressive .293 career batting average.

Reviewing
just the video of his highlight clips, it would appear that Nishioka is adept
at using the entire field (perhaps a little more pull-happy from the left-side
of the plate judging from the way he opens up his hips quickly). Again, I
cannot stress enough on how these videos are hand-picked and do not tell the
entire story, however, from the small-sample clips we can see that Nishioka is
spraying foul pole to foul pole with line drives from both sides of the plate.

Based upon
his mechanics in the video, this appears to be a common occurrence rather than
cherry-picked moments because, as I noted above, he keeps his weight/hands back
extremely well. This, I believe, will play favorably for the Twins.

Conclusions:

Without the availability
of data (platoon splits, batted ball numbers, etc) to marry along with the
visual report, it’s hard to paint an accurate picture of Nishioka’s true potential.
Still, I believe we can make a few assumptions on what is future will be
stateside.

In addition
to posting his career-high marks in 2010, Patrick Newman
at Fangraphs.com noted that Nishioka’s overall BABIP was .389 last season. Without
context of how that fits in with the Japanese standard, it is a number that is
absurdly high over here. Only two MLB players finished the season with better BABIPs
than that – the reigning AL MVP Josh Hamilton and Austin Jackson. Typically,
major leaguers have a BABIP near the league norm of .294. The natural
conclusion is that Nishioka will likely experience some drainage in his BABIP
in converting to the professional ranks on this side of the Pacific, resulting
in a depression of his overall batting average as well as shaving off some
points from his on-base percentage. Because of this, Newman believed that Nishioka’s
batting line would probably resemble that of either Ryan Theriot (.284/.348/.356
career hitter) or Chone Figgins (.287/.359/.376). Both hitters are archetypal
high contact, high line drive/ground ball tendencies with little power behind their
swings but practice zen-like zone judgment. Essentially, they are above-average
at avoiding outs but will not be a contributing power factor.

While Newman
points to Theriot and Figgins as Nishioka’s potential comparables, after
reviewing Nishioka’s video, I’m not entirely convinced these are appropriate comparisons.
For one, Theriot is strictly a right-handed hitter and has not had a career
full of success against same-sided pitching. With Nishioka able to exercise a
platoon advantage over Theriot, there is ample room for better numbers.
Figgins, meanwhile, has never shown any semblance of home run power, even in
the minors. Whereas Nishioka has hit home runs in the teens the past three
seasons in Japan, the most Figgins ever hit in development leagues was 7 in a
very hitter-friendly atmosphere of the Pacific Coast League (AAA). Figgins, on
the other hand, doesn’t use much of his lower extremities when it comes to his
swing. Like a Denard Span, Figgins utilizes quick, strong wrists to hit his
line drives. While I wouldn’t anticipate Nishioka popping off for 12 or 15 home
runs, especially given the configurations of his potential new ballpark, he
does have more power generation in his mechanics and could come close to reaching
double-digits.

Furthermore,
the line drive/groundball-oriented Nishioka will also have to contest with the
natural environments that are found at the stateside stadiums and ballparks.
While playing in the Pacific League, Nishioka’s venues included stadiums that
were all decorated
with artificial surfaces – assisting in the acceleration of groundballs
past helpless infielders. This faux-grass undoubtedly aided in his .293 career
batting average in Japan (and possibly added a few extra base hits that split
the gaps and whistled into corners of the plastic field). His transition into a
league that has only two stadiums with artificial turf will likely cause some
of those carpetburners to slow up in the grass. After all, considering that
both Joe Mauer and Denard Span – two of the lineup’s most prevalent
groundballers – lost a significant chunk off of their groundball BABIPs after
relocating from the Metrodome to Target Field (Mauer’s 38 points lower while
Span’s 54 points was significantly lower), it is not a stretch to assume that
Nishioka could befall the same fate on a similar scale.

While that
portion of the landscape may hinder his numbers, there may be some benefit to
the structure off of Twins Way.

Minnesota has
quickly learned that power is rendered almost useless 81 days a year at Target
Field. Because of that, signing/acquiring someone with marginal power is not a
sound solution. Unless a dead-pull power hitter is available, anyone that
utilizes the gaps and center as their land spot will have serious troubles
trying to maintain their current home run pace. This would wreak further havoc
on their overall numbers if that player isn’t a line drive hitter that
direction.

For example,
last year Danny Valencia found Minnesota to be a safe haven – hitting .387/.461/.561
at Target Field. This is because his style of play fits well within the
confines. According to Inside Edge, Valenica sent 21.3% of all his in play
balls to center field. Of those hit towards center, 22% were line drives and
resulting in a .376 BABIP in that direction (well-above the .263
league-average). With the extra vacant land in center, it is no small wonder
Valencia gained additional hits there. Likewise, Denard Span was also markedly
better on his home turf. Despite road woes and troubles getting groundballs for
hits, Span hit .301/.371/.390 at the Target Field. Like Valencia, Span also
favors smacking line drives to center field (21.7%) and wound up with an
above-average BABIP in that direction too (.286). If Nishioka can continue
hitting to all fields like it appears in his video, he may replicate Valencia
and Span’s success.

Needless to
say, Newman is correct in anticipating some degeneration of his Nippon career numbers
as he acclimates to the improved competition and new surfaces not made of polypropylene.
However, because Target Field appears to reward players that use the middle of
the yard for line drive demonstrations, the Twins and Nishioka could find his
new home extremely accommodating to his style of hitting.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."