If Jeb Bush wants to win, he should play chess

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Photos:Jeb Bush's life

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush waves as he takes the stage as he formally announces he is joining the race for president with a speech June 15, 2015, at Miami Dade College in Miami.

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Photos:Jeb Bush's life

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush shakes hands with attendees after speaking at the 42nd annual Conservative Political Action Conference on February 27 in National Harbor, Maryland.

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Bush takes a selfie with a guest at a luncheon hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs on February 18 in Chicago. Bush delivered his first major foreign policy speech at the event.

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Bush hands out items for Holiday Food Baskets to those in need outside the Little Havana offices of CAMACOL, the Latin American Chamber of Commerce on December 17 in Miami.

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Bush waves to the audience at the Tampa Bay Times Forum in Tampa, Florida, on August 30, 2012, on the final day of the Republican National Convention.

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Bush (left) and wife Columba Bush attend the 2012 Lincoln Center Institute Gala at Frederick P. Rose Hall, Jazz at Lincoln Center on March 7, 2012, in New York City.

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President Barack Obama (left) speaks about Bush (center) while visiting Miami Central Senior High School on March 4, 2011 in Miami, Florida. The visit focused on education.

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Bush (left) speaks with Brazilian President in charge Jose Alancar during a meeting at Planalto Palace in Brasilia, April 17, 2007. Bush was in Brazil to speak about sugar and ethanol business.

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Then-Texas Governor Rick Perry (center) testifies as Bush (right) and then-Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano (left) listen during a hearing before the House Committee on Homeland Security on Capitol Hill October 19, 2005.

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Bush gives a thumbs up signal from his car as he leaves a local polling station after casting his vote in Coral Gables, Florida, November 5, 2002.

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Bush walks out of the West Wing after meeting with his brother, then-President George W. Bush, at the White House January 9, 2002. Governor Bush participated in the signing ceremony of the Everglades Protection Agreement.

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Photos:Jeb Bush's life

Then-Mexican President Vincente Fox (left) and Bush hold a press conference September 7, 2001, in Miami. Fox visited Florida to attend the Americas Conference and deliver a speech to speak about issues such as immigration.

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Then-President George W. Bush (right) is greeted by Jeb Bush on March 21, 2001, at Orlando International Airport in Orlando, Florida. President Bush was in Orlando to attend the American College of Cardiology Annual Convention.

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Bush speaks during a press conference at the Carandolet Government Palace in Quito, January 18, 2006. Bush and a businessmen delegation were in a two-day visit to talk about a free trade agreement.

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Bush speaks to reporters after meeting with the Florida State Cabinet at the Florida State Capitol Building November 16, 2000, in Tallahassee, Florida.

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Then-President George W. Bush (left) and Jeb Bush (right), raise their arms onstage following a rally at the Florida State Fairgrounds, October 25, 2000, in Brandon, Florida.

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Jeb Bush (left) and then-President George W. Bush stand with their arms around each other's shoulders at a rally in Miami, Florida, September 22, 2000.

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Then-President George W. Bush (right) and Jeb Bush go through the line for strawberries during a stop at the Stawberry Festival March 12, 2000 in Plant City, Florida.

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The Bush family, (left to right) former U.S. President George W., former Florida Governor Jeb, former President George H.W. and his wife Barbara, watch play during the Foursomes matches September 25, 1999 at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts the site of the 33rd Ryder Cup Matches.

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Former President George H.W. Bush (second left), his wife Barbara Bush (left), their son Jeb Bush (center), then-first lady Hillary Clinton (second right), and former then-President Bill Clinton (right) look up to see the U.S. Army Golden Knights parachute team November 6, 1997 at the conclusion of the dedication ceremony of the George Bush Library in College Station, Texas.

Story highlights

Dan Pfeiffer: Jeb Bush is faring poorly in the early going in Iowa

Pfeiffer says he'd be better off spending his time and money in New Hampshire

Dan Pfeiffer is a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama and served in the White House in a variety of roles, including communications director. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his.

(CNN)In 2007, Mike Henry, Hillary Clinton's deputy campaign manager and one of the smarter operatives in the party, wrote a memo urging the campaign to pull out of the Iowa caucuses and focus its limited resources on the contests that came later.

Henry's suggestion, which leaked to The New York Times, was immediately rejected. Hillary went on to come in third in Iowa and lost the nomination because in part because she didn't have the resources or necessary organization to prevail in the later contests.

Dan Pfeiffer

Now I am not in the habit of giving political advice to Republicans, but eight years after Henry's advice to Clinton, I can't help but think that pulling out of next year's Iowa caucuses would be the best thing Jeb Bush could do to win the nomination.

I can see why the Bush campaign would take this advice with more than a little skepticism.

However, the Bush campaign and I have the same interest -- we both want him to win the Republican nomination. They want him to win because they want him to be President, and I want him to be the Republican nominee, because Bush is the major Republican candidate not named Trump or Cruz who is most likely to lose to the Democratic nominee.

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The Republicans can maximize their chances of winning next year by making the election about a choice between the future and the past. Hillary Clinton, because of her long time on the national stage and her last name, would be potentially vulnerable to this message from the right candidate. Bush doesn't embody the future; he embodies a very unpleasant and unpopular past.

The main reason for Bush to pull out of Iowa is that he is going to lose, and may lose badly.

According to the Realclearpolitics polling average, Bush is mired in third place in Iowa, trailing Scott Walker by nearly 10 points. Despite having a fairly successful campaign announcement speech that helped his numbers elsewhere, Bush has been stuck in Iowa, which appears to be skeptical of his conservative credentials and resistant to help put another Bush in the White House. This is a bad sign given his family's history of success in the state -- his father won Iowa in 1980 against Ronald Reagan (although he lost in 1988) and his brother won by 10 points in 2000 (George W. Bush was unopposed in 2004).

Businessman Donald Trump announced June 16 at his Trump Tower in New York City that he is seeking the Republican presidential nomination. This ends more than two decades of flirting with the idea of running for the White House.

"So, ladies and gentlemen, I am officially running for president of the United States, and we are going to make our country great again," Trump told the crowd at his announcement.

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Photos:Who's running for president?

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has made a name for himself in the Senate, solidifying his brand as a conservative firebrand willing to take on the GOP's establishment. He announced he was seeking the Republican presidential nomination in a speech on March 23.

"These are all of our stories," Cruz told the audience at Liberty University in Virginia. "These are who we are as Americans. And yet for so many Americans, the promise of America seems more and more distant."

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Photos:Who's running for president?

Ohio Gov. John Kasich joined the Republican field July 21 as he formally announced his White House bid.

"I am here to ask you for your prayers, for your support ... because I have decided to run for president of the United States," Kasich told his kickoff rally at the Ohio State University.

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Photos:Who's running for president?

Hillary Clinton launched her presidential bid on April 12 through a video message on social media. The former first lady, senator and secretary of state is considered the front-runner among possible Democratic candidates.

"Everyday Americans need a champion, and I want to be that champion -- so you can do more than just get by -- you can get ahead. And stay ahead," she said in her announcement video. "Because when families are strong, America is strong. So I'm hitting the road to earn your vote, because it's your time. And I hope you'll join me on this journey."

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Photos:Who's running for president?

Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, announced his run in an email to supporters on April 30. He has said the United States needs a "political revolution" of working-class Americans to take back control of the government from billionaires.

"This great nation and its government belong to all of the people and not to a handful of billionaires, their super PACs and their lobbyists," Sanders said at a rally in Vermont on May 26.

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Because of their low turnout and the significant time commitment for attendees, caucuses are contests of enthusiasm. This is a problem for Bush for two reasons.

First, apart from raising millions and millions and millions of dollars, Bush hasn't yet proved himself to be a particularly dynamic candidate. Second, the most enthusiastic supporters tend to also be the most conservative, which is why the last two GOP Iowa caucuses were won by the most conservative candidate in the field -- Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008. And Bush doesn't come close to being the most conservative candidate in this GOP field.

More generally, the Iowa caucus is a poor predictor of the eventual Republican nominee. In the seven contested Republican contests in Iowa since 1980, the eventual nominee has only won twice. Just ask Presidents Santorum and Huckabee how much they enjoyed winning Iowa.

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If the odds of winning are long and the benefits of winning are limited, common sense would dictate skipping Iowa and spending time and resources elsewhere. While money may end up being an inexhaustible resource for Bush, time is not.

During the Obama campaign in 2008, David Plouffe, our campaign manager, used to say, "You can raise more money; but you can never get time back." So every minute of every day that Bush is spending in Iowa is a minute that he can't spend in the contests that will most directly affect his chance to win the nomination.

New Hampshire is a contest better suited to Bush's profile and much more critical to his candidacy. Losing New Hampshire would be a potentially fatal blow.

While Bush is wasting time campaigning in Iowa, John Kasich and Chris Christie are in New Hampshire and Marco Rubio is in South Carolina campaigning for the exact voters that Bush needs to win the nomination.

Now I know Bush is not going to take my word on this one, but he should look at recent history.

In 2012, Romney bet big on Iowa, spending a lot of money and time in the state, only to lose narrowly to Santorum. As a consequence, he was weaker in the later states, which extended the primary campaign far longer than he wanted, hurting his chances in the general election.

In fairness to Romney, he almost won in Iowa, but he was much better positioned than Bush is now because he was competing against a far weaker field and had an existing organization from his 2008 run.

The chess players know you have to be willing to lose a piece or two to win the game.

Dan Pfeiffer

John McCain in 2008 knew that he had little chance of winning in Iowa, so he didn't compete. He planted himself in New Hampshire and campaigned hard there while the rest of the field was fighting over Iowa. He built a base of support that led to a strong victory in New Hampshire, which helped him sew up the nomination pretty quickly.

The best politicians play chess, but most candidates play checkers. The chess players know you have to be willing to lose a piece or two to win the game.

Proposing a strategy proposed by a Clinton strategist and adopted by John McCain may not be the best way to win favor with a candidate in today's Republican Party, but if Jeb Bush wants to survive the Trumpnado and become the nominee he needs, he should play a little chess, get out of Iowa and get to New Hampshire as soon as possible.