BI FLASH PROJECTION: Next Week's Jobs Report Will Come In At 130K

In recent months we've has been making a Non-Farm Payrolls (jobs report) prediction in the days ahead of the official number. Our estimate is based on a variety of data. However this month we're going to present a series of "flash" estimates, as the economic data comes in, thus allowing us to build out our model. So this is the first installment of our series, which we will be updating before next Friday's number.

The economy likely added some 130,000 net jobs in May, new data out of Business Insider shows in advance of the Non-Farm Payrolls report on June 1. The current median Bloomberg estimate is for 155,000 net jobs, with projections ranging from 70,000 to 190,000.

If that figure holds, it would represent the eighth consecutive month of job growth at greater than 100,000. Business Insider also estimates the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 8.1 percent (consistent in a scenario where the participation rate is unchanged at 63.6 percent).

Flash projections are based on regional Federal Reserve data and are updated as the five districts that publish monthly regional readings report over the course of the month. Those districts include the New York, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Richmond reserves.

The May figure is currently based on data from New York, Philadelphia and Richmond. While the New York and Richmond employment reports were relatively robust, Philadelphia recorded a substantive decline, falling to -1.3 from 17.9 a month earlier.

"Firms’ responses suggest a slight decline in employment this month," the Philadelphia Fed said in a statement. "The percentage of firms reporting decreases in employment (16 percent) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting increases (14 percent). Firms also reported a slight decrease in average hours worked compared with April."

The data generated a 0.700 R Square with monthly changes in non-farm employment — somewhat weaker than the model Business Insider typically uses when making final estimates.

Below, breakouts of the individual Federal Reserve reports plotted to changes in non-farm employment (based on first readings before revisions are made).

Blended Fed:

Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Regional Federal Reserves

New York Fed:

Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Regional Federal Reserves

Philadelphia Fed:

Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Regional Federal Reserves

Richmond Fed:

Eric Platt/Business Insider, Data: Regional Federal Reserves

Business Insider will issue changes to its flash estimates on Thursday, May 24 and Tuesday, May 29.