posted at 11:21 am on September 26, 2013 by Allahpundit

He’s underwater on every metric — overall job approval, foreign policy, the economy, health care, dealing with Syria and Iran, you name it. And why wouldn’t he be? There’s nothing he’s doing anymore, apart I guess from a few new environmental regs to please the greens, that has either side excited about Hopenchange. And as I mentioned in passing last night, per Bloomberg News, he’s now also underwater on his favorable rating. Having a net negative job approval rating is nothing new for The One, but most Americans traditionally say that they like him even when they’re not happy with his performance. Not anymore. The NSA scandal, weakness towards Assad and Russia, and the daily drumbeat of ObamaCare glitches have made Bambi less cuddly.

Key strategic question, then, for congressional Republicans (who remain, as always, less popular than O): Do they press their advantage against a lame duck by risking a shutdown or, more dramatically, hitting the debt limit to try to extract concessions on ObamaCare? Or would that backfire by swinging the public behind O and putting some gas back in his political machine’s engine? If his numbers stay this low, he’ll be a lame duck for the next two years, unable to do anything to advance his agenda — especially if the GOP picks up Senate seats.

Forty-nine percent of the public disapproves of Mr. Obama’s job performance, and 43 percent approves, matching his worst measures in two years, the poll shows. Only 30 percent of Americans believe he cares “a lot” about their needs and problems, a figure that has fallen steadily from early in his first term…

[T]here is little doubt that the president is being hurt by questions over his health overhaul. Only one in five Americans say they expect to be positively affected by the law…

Mr. Obama … is viewed more negatively than President Bill Clinton was the last time there was a government shutdown, in the fall of 1995. In October of that year, shortly before the federal government partly closed down, 38 percent of Americans disapproved of Mr. Clinton’s job performance — 11 points less than those who disapprove of Mr. Obama now.

Facing a popular president in a shutdown is one thing, facing a lame duck whom no one’s happy with right now is something else. And in fact, per Harry Enten, the 1995 shutdown actually didn’t do much to boost Bill Clinton’s popularity. Conventional wisdom has it that GOP stubbornness propelled him to reelection, but as Enten shows, Clinton’s job approval actually dipped (albeit slightly) after the shutdown. It was the economy that brought him back in 1996. So if you’re worried that Republicans would resuscitate O’s presidency by playing chicken with him over a shutdown or the debt ceiling, maybe you shouldn’t worry so much.

Which is not to say you shouldn’t worry at all:

Maybe all of that is moot now, though, given that the House GOP seems to be moving towards demanding minor concessions to avert a shutdown and pushing the big-ticket ObamaCare stuff off to the debt-ceiling battle. Would that play better?

The X factor for a debt-ceiling standoff, now as in the past, is how bad the fallout would be. For all the media doomsaying about the repercussions of a budget standoff and government shutdown, it’s unlikely that it would last for even one pay cycle. A deal would be struck in a week or two and federal employees would get their checks, likely without missing a beat. Markets freaking out over the U.S. hitting its debt limit would be something … different, the political (and economic) effects of which are unpredictable. Which party wants to emerge as the “winner” from the rubble of whatever happens? This is why, I assume, Boehner isn’t demanding defunding or repeal as a condition of a debt-ceiling agreement but something more modest, like a temporary delay, that Democrats might conceivably agree to in the name of averting catastrophe. When push comes to shove, GOP leaders don’t want this bomb go off, even if that means looking weak in setting their demands. Not a strong position from which to negotiate, but less risky for the country than the alternative.

Conventional wisdom has it that GOP stubbornness propelled him to reelection, but as Enten shows, Clinton’s job approval actually dipped (albeit slightly) after the shutdown. It was the economy that brought him back in 1996

Shutting down the government, or anything that forces down government spending, would help the real economy. So it’s not like the two things are unrelated.

Actually 3 years and just shy of 4 months. And a country stupid enough to elect him twice could just as easily saddle us with President Hillary for 8 additional years(I won’t say 4 because incumbents almost never lose).

The low poll numbers DO matter insofar as lame duck status this early should theoretically be a boon for the GOP in the midterms(like the Democrats in 2006). Plus it’ll make almost impossible for Obama to get anything else substantial through Congress.

Lame douche is a better term, ducks can at least be eaten and are quite tasty. The numbers don’t matter anyway, Dog Eater is retreating to his bunker while the populace is left to face the wrath of the advancing hordes.

Maybe all of that is moot now, though, given that the House GOP seems to be moving towards demanding minor concessions to avert a shutdown and pushing the big-ticket ObamaCare stuff off to the debt-ceiling battle.

Pushing the big-ticket stuff off to the next battle YET AGAIN.

It is time for the GOP to take a stand instead of lecturing us all that we just have to wait to the next battle and then they’ll really stand up for what conservatives want. But in the meantime, they have no choice but do whatever the hell it is that Obama wants.

We are in the midst of what would have been happening if Carter had a second term.

The only problem is – after all this time, Obama still isn’t being held accountable and responsible for his record. It is always someone else’s fault.

Athos on September 26, 2013 at 11:34 AM

This is worse than Carter. Carter for all of his faults never saddled us with $6 trillion in debt(or the late 1970’s inflation-adjusted equivalent) or a health care law that was destroying jobs and private insurance BEFORE it was even fully implemented. I don’t envy whomever takes office in 2017 and inherits the mess Obama leaves behind.

I honestly doubt any one president will be capable of fixing this, short of assuming dictatorial power, at this point. We would need a succession of multiple conservative presidents with conservative supermajorities in Congress for 25 years to begin to unravel this mess with the normal political processes. There’s just too much that’s broken.

ah, the classic not this time, we’ll defend the next hill strategy that has been leaving dems all over the political landscape wondering what happened*

*given the economy, obamacare love, the middle east collapse, Benghazi, IRS scandal, crony bankruptcies, Fast & Furious, rampant racial demagoguery they are wondering how in heck they are still in charge and pushing their agenda

It seems that all sorts of liberals and demorats must have become racist, is that even possible?

Bishop on September 26, 2013 at 11:38 AM

Technically speaking, according to Race Card Rule No. 1 (and the U.S. Census Bureau), it is impossible only for 13.1% of the nation to be racist (unless you’re a conservative within that percentage). The rest of us are, or might as well be.

Boycotting South Africa and listening to Paul Robeson records won’t help you anymore.

Jesse Jackson, who shouldn’t be allowed on an English show, until he actually learns English, tried to convey that obama is actually great and obama’care’ is the best thing since the founders.

It was hard to understand what he really said.

Schadenfreude on September 26, 2013 at 11:51 AM

Didn’t he threaten to cut Barry’s balls off? The hand gestures. Was he making any hand gestures? They help. At least they did in that incident.
Still once you’ve understood what he said, you have to struggle with the honesty factor. Hand gestures won’t even help there.

Sadly enough, Obama could become the lamest of all, but with the current Republican leadership reaching across the aisle, and in addition, slamming down any conservatives, Obama will be just fine. Remember, he won the election, and we are obligated to bow to the throne. That’s how McCain sees it.

I predict Boehner has already negotiated the vote for funding O-Care for a 1 year delay and the dems are with him since they’re not ready anyway. All of the confusion that is scheduled to hit within a week will still happen but it will blamed on repub intransigence.

As somebody smarter than me has said, if your worried about what the opposition thinks of you then you’ve already lost. That’s how half of our GOP senate thinks and handful of house members led by Peter King.

I fully expect the rating organizations to downgrade the US once again if a debt ceiling increase agreement is reached that does not have significant and fundamental changes in the spending trajectory of the federal government.

The problem with the GOP leadership is that their defeatism and timidity will give them a considerable amount of ownership of this downgrade.

If they are really concerned about something having a negative impact on their election bid in 2014 – it’s going to be this.

Is Mika really ever happy about anything? She seems like one of those women that spend every waking moment angry or upset about something.

It’s a liberal thing HN, the more liberal the madder they stay. I have a sister in NOVA that is exactly the same way and just as clueless. Cannot articulate one defense of any position she holds as truth. I think that may be why they are always mad.

Got polled the other evening by Gallup. They offered me the choice of “Approve” or “Disapprove” of O’s job performance…

Whaddaya got beyond disapprove?

My favorite question, however, was the final “demographic” question. After saying that I am “married”, “have 4 kids”, am “very conservative”, that my religion is “very important to me”, that I attend services “at least once per week”, and that I consider my religious beliefs as part of my “daily” life… the guy finished with, “Do you consider yourself ‘gay, lesbian, bisexual or transexual?'” I chuckled and asked if the guy wanted to guess.

For all the media doomsaying about the repercussions of a budget standoff and government shutdown, it’s unlikely that it would last for even one pay cycle. A deal would be struck in a week or two and federal employees would get their checks, likely without missing a beat. Markets freaking out over the U.S. hitting its debt limit would be something … different, the political (and economic) effects of which are unpredictable.

Wait, so after a week of “this isn’t the battle to fight” it turns out that this was the battle to fight? We did have more leverage during the CR fight than we will during the debt ceiling hike?

Take heart in the knowledge that Rasmussen was woefully inaccurate in the 2012 cycle.

libfreeordie on September 26, 2013 at 11:50 AM

libfree loves to talk about polls and optics and political maneuvering because ObamaCare is a disaster for healthcare and the economy and his god-king gave special deals and exemptions to big corporations and his fellow elitist politicians. Social Justice!

We need to break up this CR into smaller ones, that each fund a specific part of government…

Chris of Rights on September 26, 2013 at 11:57 AM

Boehner promised that this year we’d have normal order for the budget. Instead the House waited till last minute and did an all-enconmpassing continuing resolution again. It’s almost like they want to fail.

So what do you think the likelihood of them using your (otherwise reasonable) strategy is?

Markets freaking out over the U.S. hitting its debt limit would be something … different, the political (and economic) effects of which are unpredictable. Which party wants to emerge as the “winner” from the rubble of whatever happens?

I am always amazed how disconnected you and Ed are from the economic realities, AP.

It really is astonishing!

Quick thumbnail sketch:

1) The Fed has decided it will now purchase MORE U.S. Treasuries than needed to fund the defecit. It is doing this DESPITE currently being PRIMARY purchaser of ALL U.S.T’s. The Fed will soon BE THE MARKET for U.S.T.’s – Guess what happens to interest rates when they “succeed”?

2) The “Yellen is our new goddess” uber-liberal crowd has defacto nominated her to be the next Fed Chairperson. Why you ask? Because they expect Yellen to EXPAND the Fed’s QE policy and extend it indefinitely. Guess what happens to the value of the dollar if that happens?

3) If you take away nothing else from this post – take this next item away because it is most important. The GAAP requirement for “Mark to Market” on assets was suspended at the start of the financial crisis and was NEVER REINSTATED. All this “the markets are at an all time high” happy horsepuckey IGNORES this highly inconvenient fact. Why you ask? Because if you reinstated “mark to market”, the balance sheet of 90% of American publicly traded businesses would look and smell like horsepuckey.

Newsflash to Ed/AP:We ARE already sitting in economic rubble. Obamacare is the neutron bomb designed to permanently destroy the American middle class. You might want to consider revising your editorializing in light of that outcome.

I have a sister in NOVA that is exactly the same way and just as clueless. Cannot articulate one defense of any position she holds as truth. I think that may be why they are always mad.

DanMan on September 26, 2013 at 12:03 PM

Yeah, Virginia has plenty of stupid women who are constantly angry at the world. They’re giving Terry McAuliffe an edge on the claim that Ken Cuccinelli wants to ban all abortions. No sane person would believe that is what Cuccinelli stands for but, as I said, plenty of angry stupid women in the Commonwealth.

Not anymore. The NSA scandal, weakness towards Assad and Russia, and the daily drumbeat of ObamaCare glitches have made Bambi less cuddly.

I think most Americans are angry at him for even bringing up a attack on Syria in the first place. I hope the neo-cons in the GOP don’t convince themselves of the narrative that it was Obama’s weakness and therefore a “strong” leader would have invaded Syria and punked the Russians and Americans would just love that. That notion will cost the GOP another election in 2016 if they don’t watch out.

The general rule is simple: A candidate for president in 2016, no matter the political party, who starts waxing poetic about the Iraq War or that America needs to get more involved in the Middle East, etc. will be hurt by that politically. Period…end of story.

1) The vast majority of Americans will be negatively affected by the law.

2) The vast majority of Americans say to uphold the law.

3) The vast majority of Americans say to fund government.

4) The vast majority of Americans disapprove of Congress.

Fund government, include a provision that states the law is the law and void all exemptions/waivers from Obamacare, reinstitute all dates as written in the law and signed by the President, and require all Federal employees to abide by it with no subsidies.