In more than 40 episodes spanning 75 years, equity and bond fund investors have defied predictions that they would panic and spark crises. Yet banking regulators won’t let go of their “run” scenario. Why?

North Macedonia has already changed its name. Now it's trying to change minds.

The Balkan country, along with neighbor Albania, is aiming to get the green light this month to begin EU membership talks. For the second year in a row, the European Commission has recommended the start of talks for both countries. But EU member governments will make the decision, which will reveal a lot about how they envision the future of the Union and its relationship with the Western Balkans.

To get the go-ahead, Skopje and Tirana have to convince one person in particular — French President Emmanuel Macron.

France took the lead in blocking the start of talks for both countries a year ago and French officials have continued to express skepticism, suggesting North Macedonia and Albania fall short on democracy and the rule of law, and that the EU must reform itself before contemplating enlargement.

France's hard line is particularly vexing this year for North Macedonia, a country of some 2 million people that has even gone as far as changing its name (from Macedonia) as part of an agreement to settle a decadeslong dispute with Greece that blocked its path to membership of the EU and NATO.

France has not yet decided whether to support the start of EU membership talks for either North Macedonia or Albania, according to an Elysée Palace official

To counter French skepticism, Skopje is trying to appeal to Macron's enthusiasm for the European project. In an interview with POLITICO in Brussels, North Macedonia's Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov suggested blocking membership talks would not sit well with the French president's desire to lead and enhance the European Union.

"My job is to make it clear that it will be difficult to be seen as a country that has an ambition to lead Europe and shape Europe and at the same time be a country that misses opportunities for success in Europe," Dimitrov said.

He said the prospect of EU membership would help North Macedonia move closer to EU standards in areas such as accountability for politicians, media freedom and economic competitiveness. As such, enlargement is a way to demonstrate the power of "European magnetism," Dimitrov said.

Dimitrov noted that not only the European Commission has declared his country is moving in the right direction. He reeled off assessments from think tanks, NGOs and the U.S. State Department that all point to progress on a range of indicators, from judicial independence to media freedom.

“We have managed to put the member states in the spotlight and to create an atmosphere where it is almost embarrassing to say no to the Macedonian file this year,” Dimitrov said. “Because saying no to our file endangers the seriousness of the EU towards a region that is geographically within the EU, encircled by EU member states. So the EU’s credibility is at stake now.”

North Macedonia's Foreign Minister Nikola Dimitrov suggested blocking membership talks would not sit well with Macron's desire to lead and enhance the EU | François Walschaerts/AFP via Getty Images

Whether these arguments will have much effect on Macron — and countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark, which have also expressed skepticism about enlargement — remains in the balance. EU ministers are due to review the two membership applications at a meeting in Luxembourg on June 18, although they may postpone a decision until later in the year. A unanimous decision is required to issue an invitation for membership talks.

An Elysée Palace official told POLITICO this week that France has not yet decided whether to support the start of membership talks for either North Macedonia or Albania.

"We’ve always been clear that the idea of rushing into enlargement is risky because there is a hypocrisy — we give these countries the feeling that they will be in Europe tomorrow when in reality it takes a very long time," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "And we give the impression to our public opinion that the only policy is enlargement instead of deepening [the EU] first."

The official said France would reach a decision "in a Franco-German way" — a remark that suggests Paris and Berlin may try to find a common position as part of broader discussions on a range of issues. That will be no easy task, as Germany has been much more positive about enlargement than France.

Michael Roth, Germany's European affairs minister, declared last week that North Macedonia and Albania have carried out reforms demanded by Brussels and it is now up to the EU to keep its side of the bargain. He also argued that membership talks are a good way to maintain the EU's sway in its Balkan backyard, where rival powers such as Russia, China, Turkey and Gulf Arab states are all seeking to gain influence.

Opponents of enlargement cite problems with organized crime, corruption and political cronyism that plague the western Balkans, as well as its recent history of the wars of the 1990s, to argue that the region does not belong in the EU, at least not any time soon.

Dimitrov stressed that his country is not asking to join the EU now, only to begin the yearslong process of membership negotiations. Two other Western Balkan countries, Serbia and Montenegro, are already engaged in membership talks.

But Dimitrov acknowledged that EU members have cooled on the idea of enlargement in recent years. Taking in poorer countries such as Bulgaria and Romania has proved unpopular in much of Western Europe, fueling complaints from populist parties and voters about east-to-west migration.

“The road is more uphill and it’s more narrow," said Dimitrov, whose country was first recommended for membership talks by the Commission back in 2009. "While we were locked in the waiting room, Europe changed."