5 Introduction We are pleased to present to you the fourth edition of Property Index, Overview of European Residential Markets. Property Index is a comparative report regarding residential markets and housing across Europe. It analyses factors influencing the development of residential markets and compares residential property prices in selected (not only) European countries and cities. Starting this year, we have slightly changed the structure of the report. Each year we will choose a specialised topic to focus on. This years issue covers residential real estate financing residential development projects. Our goal is to provide you with European residential market data. How do Europeans live, and how much does it cost them? The prices in the selected countries and their major cities differ significantly as a result of historical development and various factors affecting the volume of supply and demand. Property Index was prepared by a proven international and cross-functional team of Deloitte professionals in the development, mortgage and real estate markets. This publication has been prepared using data collected by individual Deloitte offices in selected countries. Property Index capitalises on Deloitte s extensive knowledge of the real estate and development industry, enabling us to provide you with independent and credible information. We hope you will find this fourth issue of the publication of interest for your business. As in the previous year, we especially focused our attention on: Austria (AT); Belgium (); Czech Republic (); Denmark (DK); France (FR); Germany (DE); Hungary (HU); Ireland (IE); Israel (IL); Italy (IT); Netherlands (NL); Poland (PL); Portugal (PT); Russia (RU); Spain (ES); and United Kingdom (UK). In addition, this year we added data regarding: Sweden (SW). Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 5

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7 Economic Development in Europe GDP growth in Europe remained relatively slow in 214. Low investment stands against a pick-up in demand and growth acceleration. The fall in crude oil prices could, however, provide a boost to economic growth. Decreasing commodity and oil prices are shifting wealth from commodity-exporting countries to commodityimporting ones. The falling energy prices have had a particularly adverse effect on Russia. In 214, the Russian GDP rose by.6%, which was the lowest since 29 financial crisis. The ruble fell 46% against the dollar and inflation accelerated to 11.4% in December. Strong growth in the US in 214 has resulted in large changes in bilateral exchange rates. Euro fell 12% against the dollar in 214. However, the situation has changed since the beginning of 215, when the EU grew, for the first time since 211, faster than the UK and the US. Industrial production in the EU exceeded analysts expectation more than twice in February. This has had a direct effect on the euro which has started to gain value against the dollar for the first time since May 214. Geopolitical risks are still present and the global outlook is clouded by the possibility of macro-economic trends diverging further. Financial market volatility is also a threat to the smooth recovery. The recent EU economic recovery has been driven mainly by expanding private consumption. Conversely, investment has weakened in 214 and remains low. The shifting of the fiscal policy stance of countries to neutral has not significantly improved the growth prospects. Inflation has dropped year-on-year in 214, mainly due to decreasing energy prices. Against this backdrop, financial asset prices have continued to rise substantially due to cheap money on the market. The yield on 1-year German Bund decreased from 1.9% to.55% in 214. Proving an increased financial market volatility, there has been a bond sell-off recently resulting in an increase of bond yields. Investors account this to the fear of an increase in inflation resulting from growth signs in European economies including Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Inflation is one of the main worries of bond investors. However, what is bad for the bond markets could be good for the economy. Inflation is characteristic of a healthy economy. Real GDP Growth Rate - Volume EU (28 countries) DK GE IE ES FR IT HU NL AT PL PT SW UK RU IL * Source: World bank, Federal Statistics Office in Moscow *OECD Forecast Europe could be facing an era of low growth, low investment, low inflation and volatile financial markets. The European Central Bank (ECB) is attempting to battle this scenario and has supported the economy by starting quantitative easing early in 215. The ECB buys EUR 6 billion worth of bonds each month. As of the latest data, it seems that the financing institutions have reacted positively with a decrease in credit standards. This should help enterprises in growth. In this edition of property index, we react to this development by focusing on the financing of residential development projects in Europe. Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 7

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9 Focus: Financing of Residential Real Estate Projects The year 214 was a milestone for the Property Index. Not only that we are already publishing the fourth edition but we have newly decided to add a special focus to each issue. This year s focus is financing of residential real estate projects. Generally, finance for property development operates as an interest-only, draw-down facility to finance the development as required. Interest on a development loan is often capitalised during the development period. The capitalised interest is added to owed amount and is repaid after the development finishes. Finally, the entire loan inclusive of interest being charged is repaid upon the sale of the developed units or the refinancing of any residual debt. Lending to Enterprises in Europe According to the ECB s data, the European banks credit standards have started to ease resulting in a higher supply of loans. Still, despite significant improvements since 214, the overall level of credit standard is tight in historical comparison. The most recent data from Q1 215 indicate that credit standards have fallen across the board, from large corporations to small and medium-sized enterprises. The rejection rate for loan applications fell as well in the first quarter. The main contributors to credit easing was decreasing cost of funds and smaller competitive pressures. The easing of credit conditions has since the beginning of 214 consistently resulted in overall better terms and conditions of new loans to enterprises. When determining the financing terms, the lender usually weighs many criteria: Experience of the property developer; Past payment history with the bank; Financial strength of the property developer; The quality of collateral; Equity brought to the project by the developer; The location of the proposed development; The profit potential of the development; Builder experience and capacity; Project management team experience; Type of development; Level of pre-sales/pre-leases; Ability to cover cost over runs; Exit strategy. As a result, the agreed terms often significantly vary from borrower to borrower. Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 9

10 Interest Premiums We asked Deloitte real estate professionals what the typical interest premium over 3M Euribor is in their country for the financing of a residential development project with a solid business plan advanced to a company with a sound reputation. The following summarises our research: The lowest interest premiums can be generally seen in Belgium, Austria, Germany, France, Sweden and the Netherlands due to their low risk profile and well established real estate markets. Spain, Israel, Italy, Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary typically have larger premiums in the range of 25 4 bps. We notice loosening credit standards across some of the above-mentioned markets. A case in point is Spain where banks have, in 214, started financing real estate projects for the first time since the housing crisis. A premium of 4 5 bps is demanded in the UK, Hungary and Ireland. Banks in Portugal and Russia demand the highest premiums for residential developments. This is tied to the poor situation on the housing market in both countries. Loan-to-Value Loan-to-value ( LTV ) is a financial term used by lenders to express the ratio of a loan to the value of an asset purchased. LTV determines the borrowing capacity. For example, LTV of 65% reflects a capital structure of maximum 65% debt and 35% equity of the end value of the development. The real estate developer is generally required to invest his equity in the project first, after which he is allowed to start drawing the loan. Generally, there seems to be no significant relationship between the perceived riskiness of a country (as measured, for example, by its CDS-implied probability of default) and its LTV. An example is Russia, where high levels of LTV can typically be observed, despite the probability of default being the highest of the surveyed markets. As a result, it can be concluded that LTV in a country is more or less dependent on conventions and market pressures. Typical LTV is 6%-8%. The lowest LTV can be observed in Hungary and the Netherlands. Banks in Russia, Ireland and Denmark usually advance loans with a high LTV of 8%. 1 Typical Loan Interest Premium Applied by Banks for the Financing of Residential Development Projects margin over 3M Euribor, % p.a. AT DE FR SW NL ES IL IT AT PL UK DE HU FR SWIE NL PT RU ES IL % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% IT HU Source: Deloitte analysis NL PL UK UK HU FR IE PT AT RU Typical % Loan-to-Value 2% in the Financing 4% of Residential 6% Development 8% Projects 1% IT PL HU PT NL DE UK ES FR RU IE AT DK IT % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% PL PT DE PT ES PL RU ES IE DK % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% FR Source: Deloitte analysis PT DE PL NL ES HU IT FR % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% DE IT DE NL HU

11 Pre-sales Requirements Pre-sales are in most cases required by the lender to reduce risk for a property development. Being certain that the developed units will be sold is essential to many lenders as they know that the borrower will have enough cash flow for the repayment of the construction loan. Pre-sales vary significantly among the surveyed countries being the lowest in Portugal (1%) and the highest in Italy (6%). Consequently, it seems that banks in the surveyed countries assign different level of importance of pre-sales requirements in development financing. Debt-Service Coverage Ratio Debt-Service Coverage Ratio ( DSCR ) is a ratio of the total net operating income of a project divided by total debt payment per period. DSCR is an important indicator for a bank in build-to-rent projects, which need sufficient cash flow to cover the debt payments. DSCR in the range of is typical. The highest DSCR can be found in France and Ireland. The lowest in Italy. Europe average* Interest Rates (premium over 3M Euribor) 3.32% LTV 68% Pre-sales Requirements 39% DSCR 1.26 *Includes data as shown in charts above. Excludes Israel and Russia. HU NL PL UK HU FR IE PT AT RU IT % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% PL HU PT NL DE UK ES FR RU IE AT DK Typical IT % Pre-sales 1% Requirements 2% 3% in the Financing 4% of 5% Residential 6% Development PL Projects 7% 8% PT DE PT ES PL RU ES IE DK % FR 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% PT DE PL NL ES HU IT FR % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: Deloitte analysis DE IT DE NL HU NL IT DK % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% HU Typical DSCR in the Financing of Residential Development Projects 6% RU IT AT DE PL IE NL FR. DK HU RU AT PL 8IE 7.6 7FR Source: Deloitte analysis IT* HU PT ES SW DK UK IE NL DE PL IL FR RU AT Property 2.2 Index Overview 2.4 of European Residential Markets

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13 DE NL Comparison of Residential Markets DK HU RU AT PL IE FR Housing Development Intensity Completed apartments The indicator of housing development intensity on the European residential market has declined since 211. On average, 2.4 dwellings per 1, citizens were completed in selected European countries and almost 3 dwellings per 1, citizens were completed in all selected countries in 214 (including Russia and Israel). The highest housing development intensity in all selected countries in 214 was seen in Russia (7.6 completed dwellings per 1, citizens). This country also recorded the highest year-on-year change, while 214 exceeded 213 by 1.2 dwelling. Significantly higher value of the indicator than in European countries was also found in Israel (5.3). Similarly to 213, in 214 the highest housing development intensity from the European countries was recorded in France (6.2) but this result does not reflect the insufficient supply of housing in France, especially in the densely populated areas. Other countries with above average data of selected European countries include Poland, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Housing development intensity in Ireland, the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic in 214 was near the European average. The lowest intensity of housing development in 214 was found again in Hungary (.8 completed apartments per 1, citizens) and Portugal (.9). Portugal also recorded the biggest year-on-year drop (decrease by.9 completed dwelling). Newly-added Sweden reached 1.9 completed dwellings per 1, citizens. Housing development intensity Index of the number of completed dwellings per 1, citizens 213, * - H1 214 data Source: National Statistical Authorities, calculated by Deloitte IT* HU PT ES SW DK UK IE NL DE PL IL FR RU AT PT HU IE ES DK SW NL UK IL FR AT* DE RU IE PL* RU UK HU NL DK DE* FR* AT* ES PT* IT* EUR/ RUB EUR/ HUF EUR/ PLN Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 13 EUR/ K

14 Initiated apartments The average value of the indicator of the intensity of initiated construction in 214 amounts, in the countries of interest, to almost 2.5 initiated apartments per 1, citizens, which represents a year-on-year decrease in this indicator by almost 9%. Data regarding the European average is not available. From a regional viewpoint, the highest intensity of initiated residential development in 214 was found again in Austria (5.4 started dwellings per 1, citizens as of the end of Q3 214), France (4.5) and Israel (4.3). The largest year-on-year fall of initiated construction was recorded in Israel. Intensity of initiated construction in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic in 214 was near the European average. The Netherlands also recorded the highest year-on-year growth (increase by.8 initiated dwelling) IT* HU PT ES SW DK Housing development intensity UK IE NL DE PL IL FR RU AT Index of the number of initiated dwellings per 1, citizens, 213 and Source: National Statistical Authorities, calculated by Deloitte *Does not include Q PT HU IE ES DK SW NL UK IL FR AT* DE RU On the other hand, the lowest number of apartments was initiated in Portugal (.7 initiated dwellings per 1, citizens), Hungary (1) and Ireland (1.1). Newly-added Sweden reached to 2.2 initiated dwellings per 1, citizens IE PL* RU UK HU NL DK DE* FR* AT* ES PT* IT* EUR/ RUB EUR/ HUF EUR/ PLN EUR/ K EUR/ ILS EUR/ DKK EUR/ GBP -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6, 14 5, 4,

15 PT HU IE ES DK SW NL UK IL FR AT* DE RU Housing Stock The average value of the housing stock in the countries of interest in 214 reached 452 dwellings per 1, citizens. Housing stock Number of dwellings per 1, citizens, In a comparison of selected countries, Italy reported the greatest housing stock recalculated per 1, citizens, exceeding the average of selected countries by more than 28%. The second-greatest housing stock was found in Portugal, where the percentage value exceeded the country average by almost 25%. Spain, which exceeded the average by more than 97 dwelling per 1, citizens, ranked third in One of the lowest housing stocks per 1, citizens was found in Poland (36), Russia (441) and the United Kingdom (442). IE PL* RU UK HU NL DK DE* FR* AT* ES PT* IT* * data Source: National Statistical Authorities, calculated by Deloitte The lowest housing stock in 214 could be found in Ireland (342). EUR/ RUB EUR/ HUF EUR/ PLN EUR/ K EUR/ ILS EUR/ DKK EUR/ GBP -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK IE IL UK DE* ES AT Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 15

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17 Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities 2 1 IE PL* RU UK HU NL DK DE* FR* AT* ES PT* IT* In this edition of Property Index, we have newly added data for Sweden. The prices and price growth are calculated from the point of euro investor, i.e. the price growth is also influenced by a change in the exchange rate. Changes in exchange rates of countries with a national currency other than the euro are shown in the chart on the right hand side. Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling in Selected Countries The comparison of average transaction prices in the surveyed countries indicates the following: The highest prices per sq m can be observed in the United Kingdom, Israel, France and Sweden. Out of these, Israel, Ireland and the United Kingdom have experienced a significant price growth in 214. The cluster of post-soviet economies falls on the other side of the price spectrum. Russia has the lowest dwelling prices among the surveyed countries with a price slightly below EUR 1, / sq m. Even despite the recent price growth, Hungary is the only country, besides Russia, with a price mark below EUR 1, / sq m. The Czech Republic has the highest prices among the Post-Soviet states reaching EUR 1,2 / sq m. However, the prices are still significantly below Western Europe. Prices in Spain and Portugal are due to their slump in the recent years on a similar level as in the CEE countries. Euro exchange rates changes, / (+%) = euro appreciation, (-%) = euro depreciation against a currency EUR/ RUB EUR/ HUF EUR/ PLN EUR/ K EUR/ ILS EUR/ DKK EUR/ GBP -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Source: Yahoo Finance 6, 5, Average Transaction Price of the New Dwelling 4, EUR / sq m 3, 6 2, 5 1, 4 3 RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK 2 1 IE IL UK DE* RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK ES AT HU NL** Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations DK*** * bid price, ** older dwellings, *** all dwellings (older and new), FRIE average of apartments and houses UK DE* PL IL PT ES AT IT RU HU NL** -2% DK*** -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% FR PL ES PT Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 17 IT IT RU -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4%

18 6 EUR/ DKK 5 EUR/ GBP 4-2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Prices have grown in 12 markets in 214, compared to only 5 in 213. This development shows that the property market is gaining momentum in Europe. The highest price growth was recorded in Ireland, where new building prices rose by an astounding (+31.7%), followed by the United Kingdom with (+21.6%). Prices in Germany and Austria have continued their growth, from the last year, with (+12.7%) and (+5.3%), respectively. After a large price drop last year, Spain s property market started recovering with an increase in prices of (+1.5%). Hungary and the Netherlands have shown a modest recovery with a price increase of (+5.3%) and (+4.8%), respectively. Prices in Italy and Russia have continued their downward trend in 214. While the Italian property prices have decreased only slightly, the Russian properties followed the general economic contraction and declined in euro terms by (-16.6%). However, this result is mainly influenced by ruble depreciation. The spread between the offered and final transaction price serves as an important indicator indicating the equilibrium between dwelling demand and supply. The highest discount was detected in Spain where buyers receive on average, when buying an apartment or house, a (-2%) discount. However, the discount is lower than the last year, which indicates improving conditions on the housing market. The second highest discount was in Italy (-16%) up from (-1%) last year. Other markets show a typical discount of under (-1%). 3 6, 2 5, 1 4, RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK 3, Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling 214/ 2, 213 change (%) IE 1, UK DE* IL ES RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK AT HU NL** DK*** FRIE IL PL UK DE* PT ES IT AT RU HU NL** -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% DK*** FR Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations * bid PL price, ** older dwellings, *** all dwellings (older and new), average of apartments and houses 16 PT 14 IT 12 RU 1-2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% 8 Transaction Price as the Percentage of the Offered Price of the New Dwelling ES IT Budapest Győr DK*** Székesfehérvár Warsaw Krakow Gdańsk Katowice Łódź Poznań Wrocław Moscow Saint-Petersburg Ekaterinburg Prague Brno Ostrava Berlin Hamburg Munich Frankfurt Dublin Cork Galway Wien Graz Linz Madrid Barcelona Valencia Cobenhaven Odense Aarhus Amsterdam Den Haag Rotterdam Brussels Antwerp Ghent Milan Rome Turin Inner London*** Outer London Tel- Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Lisbon Porto Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Paris Lyon Marseille HU PL RU DE* IE AT ES DK*** NL** IT UK IL PT** SW** FR PL RU HU % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% IE RU UK ES PL IT IL AT FR HU Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations *** all dwellings (older and new), average of apartments and houses -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2%

19 ES IT DK*** PL 6 RU 5 HU 4 3 % 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% The price of new and older dwellings often varies. In most of the surveyed countries, prices of older dwellings are below the price of newly developed apartments. However, this does not have to necessarily be true in some markets for several reasons particularly due to the often better location of older dwellings, or their historical value. The highest price difference between new and older dwellings was in Hungary (-49%), with no significant change from last year. A difference of above (-3%) was seen in France and Austria. In Israel, the difference has widened from (-15%) to (-28%). The development was determined by a significant increase in the prices of newly developed dwelling compared with only modest increase in prices of older apartments. Prices of older dwellings were higher compared to newer dwellings in Ireland, Russia and the United Kingdom. Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling in Selected Cities In this edition of the property index, we present a comparison of prices among 56 major European cities. Inner London was the most expensive city among surveyed cities with a price tag reaching an astonishing 14,89 EUR / sq m. Living outside Inner London is much cheaper. In comparison, new dwellings in Outer London cost on average 7,879 EUR / sq m. The second most expensive city after London was inner Paris with a price at 1,266 EUR / sq m. Again, the cost of buying a dwelling in Marseille and Lyon is much more affordable. The third most expensive city was Munich, with a price over 6,3 EUR / sq m, surpassing the German capital Berlin. It is often the case that the capital is the most expensive city in a country. However, this is not correct for some countries. Namely, Munich, Milan and the above-mentioned Tel-Aviv are more expensive than Berlin, Rome, and Jerusalem. If you are looking for a good value, Porto might be exactly the place for you. With a price tag of only 86 EUR / sq m, it is the least expensive city in our survey. The second least expensive city in 214 was Székesfehérvár in Hungary. With 1,26 EUR / sq m, it is (+2%) more expensive than Porto. Cities in Post-Soviet countries were generally the least expensive from the survey. An exception to the rule is Moscow, which with 3,84 EUR / sq m is at a similar price level as Vienna or Milan. Transaction Price Difference Between New and Older Dwellings 2 Discount (%) of the older dwellings with respect to new dwellings IE 1 RU UK ES PL IT IL IE UK AT DE* IL FR ES HU AT HU -6% NL** -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% DK*** 213 FR 214 Source: PL National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations 16, PT 14, IT 12, RU -2% 1, -1% % 1% 2% 3% 4% Average Transaction Price of a New Dwelling 8, EUR / sq m 6, 164, 142, % 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % Budapest Győr Székesfehérvár Warsaw Krakow Gdańsk Katowice Łódź Poznań Wrocław Moscow Saint-Petersburg Ekaterinburg Prague Brno Ostrava Berlin Hamburg Munich Frankfurt Dublin Cork Galway Vienna Graz Linz Madrid Barcelona Valencia Copenhagen Odense Aarhus Amsterdam Den Haag Rotterdam Brussels Antwerp Ghent Milan Rome Turin Inner London*** Outer London Tel- Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Lisbon Porto Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Paris (inside) Lyon Marseille HU PL RU DE* IE AT ES DK*** NL** IT UK IL PT** SW** FR Source: National Statistical Authorities, Deloitte data calculations * bid price, ** older dwellings, *** all dwellings (older and new), average of apartments and houses Budapest Győr Székesfehérvár Warsaw Krakow Gdańsk Katowice Łódź Poznań Wrocław Moscow Saint-Petersburg Ekaterinburg Prague Brno Ostrava Berlin Hamburg Munich Frankfurt Dublin Cork Galway Vienna Graz Linz Madrid Barcelona Valencia Copenhagen Odense Aarhus Amsterdam Den Haag Rotterdam Brussels Antwerp Ghent Milan Rome Turin Inner London*** Outer London Tel- Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Lisbon Porto Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Paris (inside) Lyon Marseille Lille Ile de France Dublin Inner London*** Madrid Jerusalem Amsterdam Berlin Cobenhaven RU HU PT PL ES NL** DE* DK*** IT AT IE SW** FR IL UK Budapest Győr Székesfehérvár Warsaw Krakow Gdańsk Katowice Łódź Poznań Wrocław Moscow Saint-Petersburg Ekaterinburg Prague Brno Ostrava Berlin Hamburg Munich Frankfurt Dublin Cork Galway Wien Graz Linz Madrid Barcelona Valencia Cobenhaven Odense Aarhus Amsterdam Den Haag Rotterdam Brussels Antwerp Ghent Milan Rome Turin Inner London*** Outer London Tel- Aviv Jerusalem Haifa Lisbon Porto Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Paris Lyon Marseille HU PL RU DE* IE AT ES DK*** NL** IT UK IL PT** SW** FR HU RU DE* IE AT ES DK*** NL** IT UK IL PT** SW** FR Property Index Overview of European Residential Markets 19

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