Markets have a laser focus on whether Great Britain will vote tomorrow to leave the European Union. Right now, the vote is too close to call, and markets seem to be holding their breath. If you believe the talking heads, a vote to leave will result in economic calamity. What rubbish. I think this is a case of hype before facts. When people like George Soros start predicting a currency collapse, I tune out. It’s hard to believe people who could make money by influencing the vote.

In the longer term it probably won’t matter much what Brits decide. If they vote to leave, it will take years to disentangle Great Britain from the EU. In that time, other economic edifices will arise to address any fallout.

But, it’s the short term that will be interesting. If Brits vote to leave, expect rates to fall. If they vote to remain, expect rates to rise. I think neither effect will be lasting, but if you’re closing in the next few weeks, it behooves you to make a reasoned decision about your rate lock. You can justify locking or floating, but it’s very likely mortgage rates Fri morning will be quite different from Thurs afternoon.

The USDA announced that effective 6/2, it is making its pilot streamline refinance program permanent. The program allows homeowners who currently have a USDA loan, like a Rural Development loan, to refinance that loan without going through the usual loan process.

As long you’ve been current on your mortgage for the last 12 months, meaning you’ve made the payments within 30 days of the due date, your lender won’t have to order a credit report and won’t have to analyze your income to see if you qualify. It will be assumed that if you’re making your payments on time now, you certainly can continue to make them if we lower the payment.

In addition, you won’t need an appraisal to determine the current value of your home.

Not only will the program save USDA borrowers money, it should make the refinancing process much faster.

Mortgage rates have continued to improve mainly due to global growth concerns. The poster child for that concern right now is the potential exit of Great Britain from the European Union or “Brexit.” Brits vote next week, and the “leave” side is leading in the polls.

I think the threat to the global economy of a Brexit is fairly minor in the short term. Markets are probably overreacting a bit to the notion that if Great Britain exits the EU, others would follow, and the EU could collapse. That scenario would take years to develop.

In our short term, we have a Fed meeting this week. The Fed also is eyeing the Brexit vote, and it’s highly likely the Fed will leave interest rates at current levels tomorrow. However, Fed governors continue to indicate they’re itching to hike rates again and soon. Assuming the effects of the Brexit vote are minimal, look for the Fed to start talking rate hikes again.

So, that leaves us with slight downward pressure on rates until the Brexit vote (or until the polls change). Locking or floating your rate is a reasonable decision at this point, but keep in mind that there is less market inertia for rates to rise than for rates to fall. In particular, if the Brexit vote fails, rates could snap upwards rather quickly.

Friday’s jobs report was surprisingly awful. Markets expected it to show the economy created 162k jobs last month. Instead, we got 38k. Even after factoring out some unusual effects, the report was very weak.

What does that mean for rates? Well, the small chance the Fed would hike short term rates next week seems to have evaporated, and the chances for Jul depend on stronger data during the coming month.

They also may depend on whether Great Britain votes to leave the European Union on the 23rd. Some analysts are predicting economic calamity if the “leave” side wins, and recent polls show it winning by a few percentage points. The true effect probably is closer to some market volatility, but the uncertainty should give the Fed raeson to pause.

Mortgage rates are likely to continue riding the range for now.

One cautionary note about the jobs report: Earlier in the year I mentioned that it was important to watch wage inflation. Wages ticked up again last month and now are up roughly 3% year-over-year. Rising wage inflation could cause the Fed to raise rates later this year in spite of weaker job growth.

Congress is diddling with flood insurance again, and if you’re in a flood zone, you may want to pay attention. The House passed a bill about a month ago that would authorize state insurance commissioners to approve flood insurance policies that would be accepted for conventional and government mortgage loans. This means you would have a private insurance alternative to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which for many is currently the only game in town.

Obviously, the idea is that more competition will lead to more consumer choice. Consumers will be able to shop for an insurance product that meets their particular needs rather than be stuck with the current one-size-fits-all government product.

One interesting twist in the bill is that it would allow homeowners who switch to private insurance to switch back to the NFIP if they aren’t satisfied. Their NFIP insurance rate wouldn’t change as long as they don’t allow coverage to lapse.

The Senate is considering a similar bill that has bipartisan support, so it’s quite possible private flood insurance will become a reality this year.