State of the Union 2013: Will Obama bounce or bust?

2/12/13 3:54 PM EST

Gallup looks at some interesting data from past State of the Union addresses and predicts this year's speech will do little to President Obama's 52 percent approval rating.

But historically, presidents' approval ratings in recent decades have dropped on average more than they have bounced. For example, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush averaged a 1 percent drop following their State of the Union addresses, Gallup reports.

George H.W. Bush fared the worst, with his approval rating dropping an average of 4 percent. Bill Clinton had the biggest bump, gaining 3 percent on average.

Obama's ratings didn't change at all after his 2010 and 2011 addresses, according to Gallup. He got a 2 percent bump in 2012, going from 44 percent to 46 percent last year.