How you can possibly winkle out that small fraction and determine that 'nope - it was in the cesspool with all the other shit but this one's clean!!' is an interesting thing to ponder.

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As our member Dejan here has pointed out, and also Dr. Kevin Knuth in his recent API interview, this is a common signal-to-noise-ratio problem that can be culled in part through statistical modeling, and also in part by culling the data in the following manner by raising these reports to the top:

All four of those features perfectly match the predicted performance characteristics for gravitational field propulsion systems…which just so happens to be the only theoretically known method for superluminal spaceflight.

The Nimitz incidents are a perfect example of this, because we have all four of those common features of AAV sightings, we have radar-visual confirmation, and multiple witnesses, and even a brief clip from a much longer and much higher resolution gun camera video of the object executing non-inertial maneuvers (and most recently, we’ve heard from military witnesses who saw the entire high-rez gun camera footage that showed the object performing these distinct maneuvers).

So yes, all of this fits the ETH perfectly. Therefore it’s our best leading hypothesis, which is further correlated with the Kepler mission findings and recent developments in astrophysics and astrobiology.

At this point, yes I am. Because I’ve seen a pair of these things zig-zag across the sky at thousands of miles per hour, and after my sighting I spent over 20 years studying military propulsion research and theoretical physics, and was able to rule out human technology with a high degree of confidence. That leaves the ETH, i.e. an origin not from cutting-edge contemporary human technology.

I think it's possible, maybe even likely but to date there is zero proof

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The word “proof” is subjective. In general terms, the word “proof” simply means “a sufficient body of evidence to create a consensus among mainstream academic scientists.” Anyone can see the vulnerabilities in that definition – if a sufficient prejudice against a given conclusion is produced within our culture, then the burden of proof can become essentially unattainable. So “proof” is a shitty and relative standard. The more significant word is “evidence.” And we have ample evidence that AAVs are real, and exhibit a strikingly consistent performance profile. Were it not for the deeply entrained prejudices within our culture to reject the ETH explanation, this body of evidence would be sufficient (in harmony with the wealth of data from other scientific disciplines) to form a scientific consensus that we indeed are, and have been for a long time, visited by other civilizations. But given the extraordinarily high burden of proof associated with this subject by virtue of its unjustly controversial nature, we have mainstream academic jokers like Neil deGrasse Tyson publicly stating that he won’t believe in the ETH explanation until he can have dinner with an alien. That’s how absurdly high the bar has been raised via cultural programming. It’s preposterous ad unscientific to insist on that level of evidence.

and pointing to the secret hidey-hole that the military keeps the 'good stuff' in isn't proof it's more conjecture.

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Not anymore. We’ve now seen three very brief and highly de-rezzed clips from much longer and higher-rez gun camera videos, and in the Nimitz case we now have witnesses coming forward who saw *the entire high-rez footage* and are now on record describing the powerfully convincing visual data they witnessed of an object zig-zagging across the sky in total defiance of inertia.

So we now know that data is absolutely real, and being withheld. It’s no longer conjecture: we know that data exists, and it proves the reality of these exotic devices.

I think @humanoidlord is just pulling your leg to get a rise out of you

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No, he really isn’t. Humanoidlord absolutely believes what he’s saying. Ask him. Frankly I’m kind of stunned that anyone with an online presence could be so tone deaf to the nature of somebody’s posts: this guy isn’t “pulling our leg,” he actually believes what he’s saying. How can you not tell the difference?

As I’ve clearly stated many times before, my mind is open to all kinds of possibilities: some sighting events could be weird atmospheric phenomena, others might be an unknown life form dipping in from space for a drink of atmosphere, other sightings might be time-travelling humans or drones (though for theoretical reasons this may be impossible), and other sightings still might be things that we can’t even imagine yet at our level of understanding. But I don’t give a shit about those sightings, frankly – I’m only interested in the sightings that very clearly appear to be advanced field propulsion technological devices arriving from distant locales. And that seems to represent the majority of genuinely anomalous sightings.

By the way, Robert Bigelow has a similar interest and has invested far more money than you or I ever will into researching all sorts of things and look at all the progress that's been made in that regard.

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Yeah, and he said on television that he believes that alien visitations are happening right under our noses.

You’re making a logical error by conflating one scenario (the Skinwalker Ranch) with an evidently unrelated phenomenon (AAV sightings). There’s little if any reason to conflate these two examples – that’s like conflating ghost sightings with UFOs. They appear to be totally unrelated scenarios, so they should be treated as such.

Didn't Jacques Vallee say something like 'if it were just aliens visiting in spacecraft he'd be disappointed?'

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The truth is usually “disappointing.” That’s basically the heart of Occam’s Razor, i.e. “the most conservative explanation is usually the correct one.” The ETH is the most credible and the most conservative explanation for AAV sightings, ergo, it’s probably the correct explanation.

This illogical compulsion of Vallee, which is shared by many others, to find "a more interesting explanation" is not a scientific impulse. The only compulsion should be to find the correct explanation.

I honestly don't know what to make of NIDS and Skinwalker. I don't think much of 'handy wavy word salad' as applied to cryptids and the like, and if it weren't for the apparent credibility of those involved at Skinwalker wouldn't think much of it. But I also don't think much of weaving together a theory by parsing data largely taken from eyewitness reports and then deciding that Eureka! The Answer is Here.

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I haven’t studied the Skinwalker Ranch incidents, but I have heard some of the stories. And I have no idea why anyone would conflate stories like “a large dog that didn’t die when shot with a gun multiple times” with “smooth metallic devices in the sky that dramatically outperform our best jet interceptors.” How are those two things even remotely related? They’re not.

It’ s important to keep the bananas and the grapefruits in different baskets, because seeking a common explanation for both is silly and unwarranted.

I don’t know what’s going on with Skinwalker Ranch, and frankly I don’t care. I don’t care about ghost stories or “demonic possession” either. I’m only interested in the advanced technology operating in our airspace – because we can learn from that stuff and eventually replicate it…and that would change the world.

And I’m all for changing the world, because what we have now is a toxic and totally unsustainable shit show.

Some excellent points there, pf. The UFO field and the larger, more general area of "paranormal" events often remind me of the parable of the blind men and the elephant. Everyone seems to have a favorite hobby horse, but in order to remain faithful to it, one must ignore huge portions of the available data. It all just doesn't add up, and it never has. I think that fact should be leading us to learn to ask the right questions, but mostly we just defend our chosen turf. I like the idea that there is really no contradiction in aliens coming here from elsewhere, by various means including interdimensional travel. Really, if there is a civilization on a planet a thousand light years from here, and representatives of it manage to get here somehow, does it really matter if we call their method FTL or interdimensional? Isn't their planet essentially in a different dimension? I know that will raise some hackles, especially from people who love math mainly because there is only ever one right answer. It might even make the Star Trek universe unravel, Loki forbid!

To me, people like Vallee are the ones dealing with the whole topic, and not just the kinds of carefully curated data sets most people seem to be comfortable with. He and Hynek joined the Rosicrucians in the 60s. They explored psychic phenomena. They were, I believe, the first prominent UFO researchers to publicly articulate the idea that UFOs might originate in alternate dimensions. Nuts and bolts fundamentalists drive him up a wall, but he is also very interested in current efforts to analyze materials possibly from other worlds. He doesn't ignore data, let alone deny the validity (or even the existence) of whole classes of experience.

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Agreed. Rather than stick a label on anything as 'ultradimensional' I prefer to say that if we are being visited it's via a method we don't understand or possibly aren't even aware of. Not exactly crazy conjecture when considering - as has been pointed out - that we are relative newcomers to the neighborhood. ETH is also plausible and the easiets for us to get our head around. Don't know why there are flags being planted on one hill or the other.

Have a look and then comment.There is a connection and possibly even some of the same cast of characters, at least from the same church if not the exact pew.

@humanoidlord, he's quite capable of speaking for himself. When you are dismissive of something or someone you could very well be missing something. Anybody that says they have this shit all figured out probably doesn't.

As for the 'de-rezzed' footage. OK. We'll see where that goes. My money's on nowhere except for more documentaries and YT presentations.

We’ve now seen three very brief and highly de-rezzed clips from much longer and higher-rez gun camera videos, and in the Nimitz case we now have witnesses coming forward who saw *the entire high-rez footage* and are now on record describing the powerfully convincing visual data they witnessed of an object zig-zagging across the sky in total defiance of inertia.

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Thinking about that as I was farting around here.

So - the same government which has been running a decades long multi-generational psyop campaign to discredit the UFO topic as it relates to the scientific community has apparently also approved these sanitized videos for release. And allowed Luis Elizondo to speak his mind freely, along with Cmdr. Fravor, Kevin Day and others. Nobody is being prosecuted for violating any security agreements or even endangering their retirements in any way. Oh and not to worry, the provenance of the videos has been vouched for.

I don’t know what’s going on with Skinwalker Ranch, and frankly I don’t care.

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Yes. Dismiss all that. Clearly earlier efforts at scientific study of anomalous phenomenon which includes UFOs, and which came to an inconclusive and disappointing end that flew in the face of empirical study - yes forget about all that. Sorry I mentioned it.

So - the same government which has been running a decades long multi-generational psyop campaign to discredit the UFO topic as it relates to the scientific community has apparently also approved these sanitized videos for release. And allowed Luis Elizondo to speak his mind freely, along with Cmdr. Fravor, Kevin Day and others. Nobody is being prosecuted for violating any security agreements or even endangering their retirements in any way. Oh and not to worry, the provenance of the videos has been vouched for.

Yes. Dismiss all that. Clearly earlier efforts at scientific study of anomalous phenomenon which includes UFOs, and which came to an inconclusive and disappointing end that flew in the face of empirical study - yes forget about all that. Sorry I mentioned it.

Occam's Razor would tell you it's more of what we got the last time around, or last few times. More entertainment, more speculation. Same product repackaged for the 21st century and a new(er) audience

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You're misapplying Occam's Razor. Occam's Razor doesn't say that new developments are likely to be a continuation of old developments; it says that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one (or more technically, it says that one should formulate hypotheses conservatively, i.e., with the fewest additional assumptions).

In this case, the simplest explanation is that what's happening is exactly what it appears to be: a former Pentagon official decided to come forward to inform the public - and most importantly our governing bodies, about this subject because the crucial data was being withheld from our leaders, and he felt that they needed to be aware of that data to govern and defend our country properly. And he knew someone sympathetic within the Pentagon who was in a position to declassify a small portion of that data in furtherance of this objective.

That's the simplest explanation, and it's supported by the available data.

The government is a gigantic apparatus with a lot of different groups with different views and different agendas - it rarely if ever acts as a single entity.

It appears that in this case, Sen. Reid and the other two Senators working with him on this, created a new program that existed outside of the existing silos and stovepipes of classified intelligence gathering programs that have been collecting and analyzing AAV data for a long time. Since the AATIP wasn't operating under the umbrella of those older programs, and wasn't an officially classified program, the stage was set for what's happening now, because much of its data remains unclassified. So people like Luis Elizondo and Cmdr. Fravor and Kevin Day never signed NDAs about the Nimitz incidents: it's perfectly legal for them to speak about it.

None of this is new information to anyone following this story closely.

And the PsyOp phase of the cover-up ended decades ago - once smokescreens like the CIA's Robertson Panel set the public perception of the AAV topic to one of ridicule and denial, the cultural momentum carried it forward. All they had to do from that early point onward, was to hide all of the really compelling evidence. Which was easy, because only the military has the equipment and the personnel required to collect compelling evidence of exotic devices navigating our airspace and monitoring our most sensitive military installations.

Sure, it's more fun to imagine elaborate conspiracies and shadowy figures making diabolical plans in smoke-filled secret chambers of the Illuminati or whatever, but no credible information has been found to support those kinds of wild, paranoid, and cynical fantasies.

Yeah, and he said on television that he believes that alien visitations are happening right under our noses.

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Again, going about my business this morning and this one stuck in my head. Who knows exactly when or how Bigelow formed that opinion. Either it was a result of a personal experience, his company's research - or maybe he formed his opinions the same way Paul Hellyer did with his summer reading list.

His research group at Skinwalker - and yes there are UFOs there too - came up with that PSP notion that sounds very trickster-godlike. And as I understand his was the only company that responded to the TTSA request for bid. I am assuming none of the deliverables mentioned that sort of thing.

Just saying that ideas other than ETH are never far away in this field, and that people with credentials and public respectability can be f*****g nuts also.

Actually when I first joined up here, you were trying to get me to read Keel's books, and then you were forced to admit that you hadn't read them yourself - you were simply adhering to what you had heard about his works.

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i have read all them, and with the exception of psy powers (there is very little proof of their existence) i agree with them

And if everything you've ever said was taken from Vallee and Keel, then you have no capacity for independent thought. That's just sad. Nobody should ever sacrifice their own original thought process to some perceived "authority figure."

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well i (along with my recently established team) am expanding on their works, finding more proof for their theories

Many billions of potentially life-supporting worlds in this galaxy alone, which are on average 2-3 billion years older than the Earth. Your subjective assessment of "ridiculous" is totally meaningless in this context. The ETH predicts that we'd be visited frequently and from times long before mankind even began keeping records. That's what appears to be happening.

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thats an extremelly optimistic view, even with billions of planets with advanced life, not all of them would follow the space faring line of advancement

Well humanoidlord references any and all claims of alien contact, lunches with aliens, spider crab aliens skittering across the road, etc., as fact - he apparently believes every single crazy alien story on the internet without the slightest skepticism. And what's worse - he credulously holds the most crazy stories up as evidence to support his Loki god notion. It seems to be incomprehensible to him that a lot of people love to make up crazy stories either to see how many idiots will actually believe them, or for a few minutes of undeserved attention. Some people are tricksters. No "extradimensional" omnipotent divine being with a perverse sense of humor required.

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the problem here is that these "hoaxes" share too many elements, even if they were reported in distant continents

. And I see zero reason to think that if you see a large metallic disc hovering over the treeline and then dart out of view in the blink of an eye, that you saw something other than a large metallic disc hovering over the treeline that then darted out of view in the blink of an eye. Questioning our own unambivalent sensory perceptions is the road to madness

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oh! if only encounters were that simple!
synchronicities, polteirgeist experiences and continued contacts follow UFO experiences

As our member Dejan here has pointed out, and also Dr. Kevin Knuth in his recent API interview, this is a common signal-to-noise-ratio problem that can be culled in part through statistical modeling, and also in part by culling the data in the following manner by raising these reports to the top:

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and also a very convenient way to ignore data that doesn't fits the model, you are litteraly doing the same mistake science has done for ages!

So yes, all of this fits the ETH perfectly. Therefore it’s our best leading hypothesis, which is further correlated with the Kepler mission findings and recent developments in astrophysics and astrobiology.

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this again? you have just managed to ignore all the CE3 sightings, wich are the bread and butter of the phenomena, well done!

You’re making a logical error by conflating one scenario (the Skinwalker Ranch) with an evidently unrelated phenomenon (AAV sightings). There’s little if any reason to conflate these two examples – that’s like conflating ghost sightings with UFOs. They appear to be totally unrelated scenarios, so they should be treated as such.

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nope and nope, there are cases where the phenomena clearly are related to each other

would conflate stories like “a large dog that didn’t die when shot with a gun multiple times” with “smooth metallic devices in the sky that dramatically outperform our best jet interceptors.” How are those two things even remotely related? They’re not.

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well maybe its because BOTH were reported many times in the same location?

@humanoidlord, he's quite capable of speaking for himself. When you are dismissive of something or someone you could very well be missing something. Anybody that says they have this shit all figured out probably doesn't.

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this is the problem with thomas, he knows very well that he is wrong, but he doesn't wanna admit because if he did, his dreams of easy space travel and nearly limitless exploration would come crashing down

Yes. Dismiss all that. Clearly earlier efforts at scientific study of anomalous phenomenon which includes UFOs, and which came to an inconclusive and disappointing end that flew in the face of empirical study - yes forget about all that. Sorry I mentioned it.

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this is thomas in a nutshell, he has done almost zero research on the depths of the subject (except maybe his daniel fry research)
he probally knows nothing about the casablanca/ california incident of 1952 or the conil beach/spain incident of 1989, mostly because if he knew, he would suddenly understand how wrong he is