Wednesday, February 8, 2012

In the Maldives, a resignation that keeps democracy afloat

Nasheed's short tenure, when compared to the long innings of his
predecessor, will be remembered for not only heralding a democratic era
but also avoidable constitutional and political deadlocks.

Rather than allowing events to drift towards a political
or even military showdown, Maldivian President Mohammed “Anni” Nasheed
has shown great fidelity to democratic principles in a country where
none existed before him by stepping down from office with grace and
poise. The alternative to his sudden and yet unsurprising resignation —
when pushed by circumstances, often of his making or that of his aides
and followers — could have been political instability at best, and
possible street violence at worst.

Under the U.S.
executive presidency model, Nasheed has been succeeded by Vice-President
Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik, Maldives' first PhD-holder and an
international civil servant in U.N. agencies across the world. Again, as
in the U.S. model, Dr. Manik, who was the running-mate of President
Nasheed, will complete the five-year term for which he was elected,
ensuring that there would be no instability of any kind at the top. That
democracy has taken deep-roots in the Indian Ocean archipelago was
proved even in the hours immediately following President Nasheed's
resignation, when the People's Majlis, or Parliament, met to pass the necessary resolutions to declare the succession.

Road ahead

The
speculation about the new President ordering fresh elections is thus
ill-informed. If anything, there could be fresh elections to the Majlis.
This is also unlikely. Under the prevailing circumstances, no party or
group is certain of winning an absolute majority, and therefore, will
not push for elections. Instead, as President, Dr. Waheed may consider
the feasibility of constituting a national government, where all
parties, including President Nasheed's Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP)
and the two rival parties founded successively by his predecessor,
President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, have a substantial and meaningful role
and responsibility in nation-building, a task that has suffered over the
past couple of years for a variety of reasons.

Nasheed's legacy

There
are other parties and groups that are now in the Opposition but had
sided with the MDP, particularly during the second round run-off
elections to the presidency in which Nasheed was elected in October
2008. Included in the list are Islamic fundamentalist groups, who were a
part of the informal arrangement of the “December 23 Coalition,” named
after the day on which they all together staged a protest to “protect
Islam” in 2011. At the end of the day, President Nasheed's short tenure,
particularly compared to the long innings of his predecessor, will be
remembered for the institutionalisation of democracy in the country.
However, it will also be simultaneously remembered for the avoidable,
and at times acrimonious, constitutional and political deadlocks. The
Nasheed camp blamed the various crises that came in its way on the
well-entrenched administrative set-up that the young President had
inherited. The new government did not learn, or learn fast enough, to
live and work with the old guard. Instead, from day one and until the
end, the Nasheed government worked against the system. Unfortunately,
that did not yield much in terms of positive results or a positive image
for the young inheritors of troubled times.

As
President, Nasheed began well. With much help and cooperation from his
predecessor, he could ensure a smooth transition when much trouble was
feared. Likewise, at his exit, he stepped down without unease and
discomfort, rather than indulge in brinkmanship that could have put the
young democracy in difficulties. A street-fighter to the core, it
remains to be seen how he will shape up in the Opposition — before this,
when he and his yet-to-be recognised party were fighting for democracy
under President Gayoom, he had no formal role in the political system.
Declared a “prisoner of conscience” by Amnesty International, Nasheed
spent much of his political career either in Gayoom's prisons, or
overseas — he was much influenced by the British Conservatives and by
the U.S.' views on global issues. Yet, he also displayed an element of
sagacity, in accepting India as a natural ally, as in the past.

The complaints

Today,
along with President Gayoom, with whom he did not share much in common,
President Nasheed has a substantial role to play in nation-building
efforts, both learning as much from their faults as from the other
person's strengths while in office. This can be both a cementing and
calming effect on the polity and society, which has felt elated at the
birth of democracy and a change of leadership, from the old to the young
— and yet could not adjust itself to the changing realities,
particularly on the economic front, overnight. Included in the long list
of complaints against the Nasheed leadership is the steep increase in
the price of daily needs, all of which have to be necessarily imported,
the problem further accentuated by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF)-induced decision at a “managed float of the rufiyaa,” the
Maldivian currency — a devaluation in other words.

Likewise,
the IMF-directed slash on salaries and staff-strength in the government
also had critics in a country where 10 per cent of the population is
employed in the government. Yet, the March 2011 local council elections
did go the MDP way mostly, but then that alone has not been enough in
this case. From Parliament to the judiciary, and now at the level of the
police, the leadership lacked the capacity to handling crisis
situations that eventually became its undoing.

Contributory role

The
new President and his two predecessors can play a concurrent and
contributory role to make a Maldives of their collective dreams — Dr.
Waheed, heading the relatively minor Gaumee Iththihaad Party does not
have any parliamentary representation, and must depend on Gayoom and
Nasheed, as well as the Dhivehi Rayathunge Party (DRP), the parent party
of Gayoom's more recent Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), among
others, to get government business through the legislature. Dr. Waheed
can be expected to take the lead in this matter.