Antony Green's Election Blog

Summary of Candidates and Parties Contesting the 2018 Victorian Election

A total of 887 candidates have nominated to contest the 2018 Victorian election, nine fewer than the record 896 candidates in 2014.

The numbers in the lower house, the Legislative Assembly, are down from the record 545 candidates in 2014 to the second highest on record at 507. That is an average of 5.5 candidate per seat, down from 6.2 in 2014.

The numbers of candidates contesting the Legislative Council has reached a new record, rising from 351 candidates in 2014 to 380 in 2018. That's a rise from 8.8 candidates per vacancy to 9.5 candidates per vacancy.

The table below summarises by party the number of candidates that have contested the lower house at elections since 1992.

Candidates by Party - Victorian Lower House 1992-2018

Party Name

2018

2014

2010

2006

2002

1999

1996

1992

ALP

Labor Party

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

88

LIB

Liberal Party

80

80

79

88

88

81

78

79

NAT

The Nationals

10

12

15

20

17

12

10

12

GRN

Greens

88

88

88

88

84

22

..

1

AJP

Animal Justice Party

43

9

..

..

..

..

..

..

DLP

Democratic Labour Party

23

5

36

..

1

8

..

..

SOC

Victorian Socialists

18

2

4

2

5

..

..

..

SAP

Sustainable Australia

11

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

TMP

Transport Matters Party

10

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

RP

Fiona Patten's Reason Party

10

9

17

..

..

..

..

..

SFF

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers

8

3

..

..

..

2

8

..

JP

Derryn Hinch's Justice Party

6

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

LDP

Liberal Democrats

4

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

ABP

Aussie Battler Party

3

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

ACP

Country Party

2

38

29

..

..

..

..

..

ALA

Liberty Alliance

1

..

..

..

..

..

..

..

IND

Independents

102

87

75

43

61

68

51

140

FFP

Family First

..

39

69

88

..

..

..

..

AC

Australian Christians

..

30

2

..

36

1

1

2

RUA

Rise Up Australia

..

32

..

..

..

..

..

..

NLP

Natural Law Party

..

..

..

..

..

15

74

29

OTH

Other Parties

..

23

..

42

25

24

..

11

Total Candidates

507

545

502

459

372

e

321

310

362

Average Candidates per Seat

5.8

6.2

5.7

5.2

4.2

3.6

3.5

4.1

Note that Fiona Patten's Reason Party was formerly known as the Australian Sex Party, and the Australian Christians as the Christian Democrats. The Victorian Socialists have contested election under different party labels over the years.

The overall fall from 545 to 507 candidates masks a significant shift to the left in the party composition of nominations.

Three small moral conservative parties that contested the 2014 election are no longer registered, Family First, Rise Up Australia, and the Australian Christians.

Family First contested all 88 electorates in 2006, 69 in 2010 and 39 in 2014. The Australian Christian contested 30 electorates in 2014 and Rise Up Australia 32. In total this means there are 101 fewer candidates representing small parties of the right.

The Australian Country Party (formerly Country Alliance) has also nominated fewer lower house candidates, just two candidates in 2018 compared to 38 in 2014 and 29 in 2010.

Some of these small parties have disappeared due to amalgamations triggered by the changes to the Senate's electoral system in 2016, and similar changes to the South Australian Legislative Council's electoral system in 2018.

Family First and parts of the Australian Christians have been absorbed by Corey Bernardi's Australian Conservatives, hoping to improve conservative prospects of winning Senate seats at the next federal election. The absorption of Family First into the Australian Conservatives was also a consequence of former Senator Bob Day's departure from politics.

Despite having registered for the 2018 election, neither the Australian Conservatives nor Pauline Hanson's One Nation have nominated candidates for the election. This leaves a hole on the right of Victorian politics that may boost the Coalition primary vote but will have little other impact on the overall result.

In several key seats, the disappearance of moral conservative candidates leaves their support free to migrate elsewhere. Key electorates with significant support for the de-registered parties in 2014 include Cranbourne (6.3%), Narre Warren South (5.7%), Bendigo West (5.1%), Narre Warren North (5.1%), Carrum (5.0%), Ripon (4.2%), Monbulk (3.2%) and Bass (3.0%).

It may also matter in Legislative Council regions where the three parties together polled the following percentages in 2014 - Eastern Metropolitan (3.3%), Eastern Victoria (3.3%), Northern Metropolitan (3.6%), Northern Victoria (3.5%), South-Eastern Metropolitan (5.3%), Southern metropolitan (1.6%), Western metropolitan (3.2%) and Western Victoria (3.1%).

Most of the increase in candidate numbers has come from parties on the left of politics, with the Animal Justice party nominating 43 candidates, up from nine in 2014, and the Victorian Socialists 18 candidates, up from two Socialist Alliance candidates in 2014.

The next table summarises the number of candidates per electorate at elections since 1992.

There is no Liberal candidate in the inner-Melbourne seat of Richmond, leaving Labor and the Greens to battle each other without the influence of Liberal preferences mattering.

There are three three-cornered contests where both the Liberal and National Party's have nominated candidates, Bendigo East, Morwell and Shepparton. The Liberal Party have not nominated candidates in the seven seats with a sitting National MP.

Victoria continues to use the group voting ticket system that was abolished for the Senate ahead of the 2016 Federal election. As a result, it has attracted a host of small parties that will spend the next two days haggling over preference deals.

Groups and Candidates per Legislative Council Region

Candidates

Groups

Region

2018

2014

2010

2006

2018

2014

2010

2006

Eastern Metropolitan

45

40

28

27

18

16

7

7

Eastern Victoria

46

46

21

38

18

16

6

10

Northern Metropolitan

52

52

34

28

19

20

10

8

Northern Victoria

45

37

25

38

18

14

8

11

South-Eastern Metropolitan

53

41

24

28

19

15

6

9

Southern Metropolitan

45

48

26

29

18

18

8

8

Western Metropolitan

48

42

24

26

18

16

6

7

Western Victoria

46

45

27

34

18

17

6

9

Totals

380

351

209

248

146

132

57

69

Average per Vacancy

9.5

8.8

5.2

6.2

Ballot draw can have a significant impact on the success of a party. Some of the more significant ballot draws are -

In East Metropolitan Region the Liberal Democrats have drawn the first column. Fortunately for the Liberal Party, it is not too far away in Column F. Labor has drawn Column G but the Greens have drawn badly in Column Q.

In Eastern Victoria the Liberal Democrats are in Column C, the incumbent Shooters, Fishers and Farmers in Column F, Labor in Column J and the Liberals and Nationals in Column P.

In North Metropolitan Fiona Patten's re-election bid is helped by drawing Column E, the Greens in Column J, the Victorian Socialists in Column L and Labor in Column O. Labor was disadvantaged in 2014 by appearing last on a second row of candidates. There will be only one row in 2018.

In Northern Victoria, the Greens have drawn Column G, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Column H, Labor Column I and the Liberals and Nationals Column O.

The Liberals drew Column A in Southern Metropolitan Region, boosting prospects of retaining three seats. The Greens are in Column F and Labor Column J.

Catherine Cummings of Derryn Hinch's Justice Party has drawn well with Column A in Western Metropolitan Region. The Liberals are in Column G, the Greens in Column Q and Labor in Column R.

The Liberals and Nationals have drawn Column B in Western Victoria Region, the Greens Column J and Labor Column L.

In 2014 the Liberal Democrats drew to the right of Liberals/Nationals in five regions and polled 1.3%, 1.5%, 2.4%, 1.7% and 2.6%. They polled twice as high in the three regions where they drew to the left of the Liberal/Nationals, polling 4.7%, 4.6% and 5.5%.

In 2018 the Liberal Democrats are left of the Liberal/Nationals in Eastern Metropolitan, Eastern Victoria, Northern Metropolitan and Northern Victoria.

The Labor Party may strike the same problem in 2018 with the DLP appearing on ballot papers as Labour DLP. The DLP appear to the left of the Australian Labor Party in Northern Metropolitan and Western Metropolitan.