PCPO Poll: Palestinians strongly support negotiating with Israel instead of going to UN now

Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA:

Hats off to Dr. Nabil Kukali for this incredibly interesting poll of the
Palestinian street.

The poll demonstrates that the Palestinian leadership has a clear mandate to
put aside their UN initiative for the time being and return to negotiations
with Israel.

Consider these two key poll questions:

If the United States of America, the EU-countries and the international
Quartet would ask Abu Mazen (the PA president) to postpone his going to the
UN in the coming September as to give the negotiations a more chance to
settle all pending issues in a way accepted by both parties on the basis of
fairness, equality and security, would you, in general, strongly support,
somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this step?

Which, in your opinion, is the preferable option for the future of
Palestine? Is it going to the United Nations for the recognition of the
Palestinian state without concluding a peace agreement with Israel, or going
back to the negotiation table with the Israelis for the sake of a permanent
peace with them and then resort to the UN?

35.4% going to the UN for the recognition of the Palestinian state without
concluding a peace agreement with Israel
59.3% going back to the negotiation table with the Israelis for the sake of
a permanent peace with them and then resort to the UN
5.3% I don’t know

==============================

PCPO Poll no. 179 September 6, 2011

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali reveals that:
(83.6%) of the Palestinians evaluate the US efforts on recognizing the
Palestinian state as
negative.
(59.3%) prefer to resume the negotiations with Israel.
(45.2%) expect Palestine to become a new UN member
(48.8%) oppose holding peaceful demonstrations after proclaiming the
recognition of the State of Palestine at the UN.
(49.2%) believe that the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas, should exert more
effort to obtain international support for the recognition of the
Palestinian state.
(52.7%) oppose at various degrees any decision taken by the PA President to
retreat from going to the UN.
(41.7%) appreciate the UN role in the efforts aiming at the recognition of
the Palestinian state.

Beit Sahour – Public Relations Office:

The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted by the
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (www.pcpo.org) during the period from
August 18 till 30, 2011, covered a random sample of (1000) Palestinian
respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult
Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the west Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. It revealed that (45.2%) of the Palestinians
expect Palestine to become a new member in the UNO during its coming General
Assembly session later this month.

Dr. Kukali, in his capacity as President of the Palestinian Center for
Public Opinion, said that the majority of the Palestinian public, namely
around (53.0%), oppose any decision taken by the PA President to retreat
from going to the UN. He added that notwithstanding this finding, the
Palestinian public is aware of the necessity of supporting the President,
should there be need, if the Quartet, the US and the EU-countries would ask
him to postpone his going to the UN as to give the negotiations a more
chance to settle all pending issues in a way accepted by both parties on the
basis of fairness, equality and security. Dr. Kukali indicated that there is
a hot debate between advocates and opponents of going to the United Nations
to capture the international recognition for the Palestinian state. Whilst
(59.3%) of the respondents are of the opinion that it’s necessary to go
first back to the negotiations with Israel as to reach a permanent peace
with the Israelis then resort to the UN, (35.0%) however support going
directly to the UN seeking the recognition of the Palestinian state
unilaterally without the need for concluding a peace accord with the
Israelis.

Efforts of the PA President to recognize the Palestinian state:

(49.2%) of the Palestinians believe that the PA President, Mahmoud Abbas,
should exert more effort to obtain international support for the recognition
of the Palestinian state at the UN General Assembly session to be held later
this month, whilst (26.5%) said “he is doing enough”, (16.9%) “he is doing
nothing at all”, and (7.4%) refused to respond to the question.

Retreat from going to the UN:

Responding to the question: “If the United States of America, the
EU-countries and the international Quartet would ask Abu Mazen (the PA
president) to postpone his going to the UN in the coming September as to
give the negotiations a more chance to settle all pending issues in a way
accepted by both parties on the basis of fairness, equality and security,
would you, in general, strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose
or strongly oppose this step?”, (10.7%) said they “would strongly support”,
(45.0%) “somewhat support”, (25.3%) “somehow oppose”, (10.0%) “strongly
oppose” such a step and (9.0%) said “I don’t know”.

And regarding in this context the question:” If the PA president (Abu Mazen)
would decide to retreat from his decision of going to the UN next September,
would you support his decision or oppose it?”, (11.8%) said they would
strongly support it, (25.2%) “somewhat support it”, (35.0%) “somewhat oppose
it”, (17.7%) “strongly oppose it” and (10.3%) said “ I don’t know”.

Positions of the various parties:

Responding to the request:”I would like to know your opinion about the
contributions of the following parties to the efforts aiming at recognizing
the Palestinian state next September, are these “very good” (1), “somewhat
good” (2), “somewhat not good” (3), or “not good at all” (4)? “I don’t
know” (5).

Upon answering the question:” Which, in your opinion, is the preferable
option for the future of Palestine? Is it going to the United Nations for
the recognition of the Palestinian state without concluding a peace
agreement with Israel, or going back to the negotiation table with the
Israelis for the sake of a permanent peace with them and then resort to the
UN?”, (35.4%) said “going to the UN for the recognition of the Palestinian
state without concluding a peace agreement with Israel”, and (59.3%) see as
preferable option “going back to the negotiation table with the Israelis for
the sake of a permanent peace with them and then resort to the UN”, whilst
(5.3%) said “I don’t know”.

The Expectations:

(45.2%) of the Palestinian people expect Palestine to become a new UN member
during the UN-session in this month, whilst (35.5%) don’t expect that and
(19.3%) declined to answer.

The attitude towards the United Nations:

Responding to the question:” How high is your estimate that the United
Nations will play its role in the efforts aiming at the recognition of the
Palestinian state and the obtainment of a full membership for this state in
the UN next September?”, (9.6%) said “very good”, (32.1%) “Somehow good”,
(41.6%) “not so good”, (12.4%) “not good at all” and (4.3%) answered “I don’t
know”.

The trust in the UN Secretary-General:

With regard to the question: “ How much trust would you put in the UN
Secretary-General, Mr. Ban Ki- moon, with regard to the resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the recognition of the Palestinian state
next September?”, (6.0%) said “too much trust”, (25.0%) “some trust”,
(38.8%) “a little trust” , (25.9%) “I don’t trust him at all”, and (4.3%)
said “I don’t know”.

The Reactions of the Palestinians:

Regarding the question: “ Some people are in favor of holding huge peaceful
demonstrations in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem with the aim as to
overrun the barriers and close the roads against the Israeli army and the
settlers after the proclamation of the recognition of the State of Palestine
in the coming September, others oppose this notion. Which of the two notions
is closer to your point of view?”, (41.5%) said “I’m in favor of holding
huge peaceful demonstrations”, (48.8%) said “I oppose making big peaceful
demos”, and (9.7%) said “ I don’t know”.

And responding to the question:” Some people say that Palestinians should
hold huge peaceful demos that overrun the barriers and close the roads
against the Israeli army and the settlers with the aim to force the Israelis
to withdraw from the territories of the State of Palestine after the
proclamation of the UN-resolution recognizing the State of Palestine, whilst
others say Palestinians should carry out violent actions against the Israeli
army and the settlers, and a third group of people is in favor of going back
to the peaceful negotiations with the Israeli government. Which of these
three opinions is the closest to yours?”, (25.9%) said “make big peaceful
demos that overrun the barriers and close the roads against the Israeli army
and the settlers”, (15.2%) “carry out violent actions against the Israeli
army and the settlers” and the silent majority, specifically (53.4%), are in
favor of “going back to the peaceful negotiations with the Israeli
government”, whilst (5.5%) answered “I don’t know”.

Non-implementation of the reconciliation accord:

Responding to the question: “Whom do you blame, in general, for the
non-implementation of the reconciliation accord between Fatah and Hamas?”,
(11.0%) said “Fatah leadership”, (37.9%) “Hamas leadership”, (46.6%) “both
leaderships equally” and (4.6%) said “I don’t know”.

Methodology of the Survey Study:

Miss Rana Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies' Section at the
PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the
respondents' homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at
least 5 hours a day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper
representation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise
be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using
Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (156) election
sites, from which (116) sites are located in West Bank and (40) sites in
Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the Central Election Commission.
These election sites were randomly chosen by using the method of the simple
random sample. These in turn were the beginning of the random sample choice
made from those regions in accordance with PCPO's long experienced
methodology.

Miss Rana Kukali has further established that the margin of error was
(±3.1%) at a significance and confidence levels of (5.0%) and (95%)
respectively. She added that the rate of the female respondents in this
survey was (49.9%) against (50.1%) male respondents. The distribution of the
random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (64.1%) in the
West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (35.9%) in Gaza Strip, and
allocated as follows: (52.2%) for the towns, (31.4%) for the villages and
(16.2%) for the camps.

About PCPO:

The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) is a leading full service
research institute in Palestine. It is a member of the Founding Team of the
Arabic Network for Public Opinion Polls in Cairo / Egypt, associate member
of
Gallup International Association (GIA) & Worldwide Independent Network (WIN)
and a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) –
U.S.A. The PCPO was founded in February 1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil
Kukali; the president of PCPO.

PCPO is dedicated mainly to the following activities:
1) To conduct public opinion surveys.
2) To implement Omnibus polls and services.
3) To carry out market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4) To gauge consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares
through surveys.
5) To do communication researches.
6) To conduct focus group sessions and workshops on various topics
7) To render services in the field of investment, including feasibility
studies.
8) To conduct in-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
9) To provide translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew
and vice-versa.

PCPO is now a name for reliability, credibility, competence and experience
not only in Palestine, but all over the world.