Emirates’ top rupee forecaster is going against the crowd

The rupee will strengthen by the year-end, Emirates NBD PJSC forecasts, bucking a growing consensus that sees it hitting new record lows

Emirates’ rupee forecasts — 67.5 to the dollar by end-September and 67 by end-2018 — are at odds with a bleak broader outlook for the currency. Photo: Mint

Mumbai: The Indian rupee’s top forecaster is going against the crowd. The currency will strengthen by the year-end, Emirates NBD PJSC forecasts, bucking a growing consensus that sees it hitting new record lows.

The negatives responsible for the rupee’s recent slide — elevated oil prices and a strong dollar — have run their course, Aditya Pugalia, Dubai-based director of financial markets at the bank, said in an interview.

“While these factors may continue to weigh on the rupee in the immediate term, they are likely to dissipate in the medium term,” said Pugalia, who had the most accurate estimates in Bloomberg’s quarterly rankings. A proactive inflation-targeting RBIwill likely put a floor under the currency over the next three months, he said.

Emirates’ rupee forecasts — 67.5 to the dollar by end-September and 67 by end-2018 — are at odds with a bleak broader outlook for the currency. Macquarie Bank expects it to hit 71 early next year, while DBS Group Holdings Ltd. has forecast a similar level by June 2019. Barclays Plc sees the currency at 72 by year-end. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey sees it at 68.20 by end-December.

The rupee has overshot its equilibrium value and is undervalued at current levels, UBS analysts Tanvee Gupta Jain and Rohit Arora wrote in a note on Wednesday. Its fair value, based on productivity-adjusted real-effective exchange rate, is in the 64-66 range, they wrote.

The rupee slid to an unprecedented 69.0925 per dollar last month. It ended up 0.3% at 68.5725 on Thursday.