Monday, December 7, 2015

Violence Continues To Decline In Iraq, Nov 2015

In November 2015 attacks continued to dip in Iraq while the
number of casualties was roughly the same as the previous month. These numbers
reflect the fact that the Islamic State has been on the defensive for most of
the year.

There were 530 security incidents reported in the media
during the month. That was an average of 17.6 attacks per day, the lowest of
the year. That was down from 18.3 in October, 19.1 in September, 19.8 in
August, 19.6 in July, and 20.7 in June. At the start of 2015 IS launched an offensive
against the Kurds in northern Iraq, but after that went on the defensive in
most of the country. Attacks have steadily gone down as a result with over 800
in January then roughly 600 per month form February to August with March being
an exception with 774. Then from September to November there have been around
500 incidents per month.

During November Baghdad was by far the most violent province
in the country. There were 229 incidents there, 43% of the total. After that
there were 84 in Anbar, 77 in Ninewa and Salahaddin each, 22 in Diyala, 20 in
Babil, 15 in Kirkuk, 3 in Basra, and one each in Irbil, Najaf, and Sulaymaniya.

Despite the drop in attacks the number of casualties
remained relatively the same between October and November. There were 2,639
dead and wounded in October versus 2,629 in November. The reason why casualties
didn’t drop was due to the discovery of several hundred dead Yazidis in mass
graves in the Sinjar district of Ninewa. These figures should be considered a
minimum because so many dead and wounded are not reported.

In Anbar most of the reported casualties were in and around
Ramadi where major fighting continued to secure the city from the Islamic
State. Of the total 67 dead and 107 wounded, 36 killed and 16 injured were in
that district. There were another 40 people wounded by IS mortar fire upon
Amiriya Fallujah during the middle of the month. There were another 40
casualties in western Anbar in places like Haditha and Rutba, and finally 20 in
Fallujah. These numbers are only a fraction of the true losses in the province
as the government has been suppressing casualties since the Ramadi-Fallujah
offensive began in July.

Babil saw a large decline in casualties from October to
November. There were 27 killed and 115 wounded in the latter compared to 27 dead
and 57 injured in the former. The difference was due to three car bombs hitting
the province in October versus none in November.

In Baghdad violence remained largely the same due to the heavy
deployment of forces to protect pilgrims during the Arbaeen ceremony. In
November there was 1 motorcycle bomb, 2 car bombs, 5 suicide bombers, 26 sticky
bombs, and 116 IEDs along with 2 suicide bombers who were killed and 3 car
bombs that were destroyed or dismantled. Those led to 301 dead and 869 wounded.
The numbers could have been much higher, but the tight security to protect
pilgrims was successful.

Another area that saw a decline in attacks was Diyala.
Before IS was setting off car bombs there nearly every week and firing mortars
into the center of the province. That’s pretty much ended. In November there
was just 1 mortar attack and one attempt at a suicide car bomb that failed.
That led casualties to drop from 105 dead and 166 wounded in October to just 18
killed and 35 injured in November.

Kirkuk remained relatively quite. IS did make some probing
attacks against the Peshmerga that resulted in 6 dead and 12 injured, but this
has become the norm.

There were two rare attacks in the Kurdistan Regional
Government. First a sticky
bomb wounded a Peshmerga in Sulaymaniya, while a man fired
on the Peshmerga Ministry building in Irbil.

Ninewa had the most casualties for the month for three
reasons. First, the operation to free Sinjar finally occurred costing the lives
of 59 Peshmerga and wounding another 86. Second, in the aftermath several mass
graves were discovered with the bodies of 271 Yazidis massacred by IS. More
such grizzly finds are likely to emerge in the coming days and weeks. Finally,
the Islamic State executed 182 people mostly in Mosul. In total, there were 608
killed and 163 wounded in Ninewa for the month.

IS continued attacks up and down Salahaddin. Towns like Taji
and Tarmiya in the south just outside of Baghdad remained a favorite target
with 25 dead and 69 wounded there. There were mopping operations in the Baiji
area and an on going offensive to the north in places like the Makhoul
Mountains that left 38 killed and 67 injured. Likewise there has been fighting
outside for Samarra for several weeks now that resulted in 8 deaths and 19
wounded. Finally, Tuz Kharmato exploded in ethnic violence between Arabs, Kurds
and Turkmen plus there was an IS car bombing to exploit these divisions that
caused a total of 27 fatalities and 38 wounded.

IS’s car bomb campaign entered its seventh month. There were
a total of 155 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in November.
Only 9 found their targets with the rest being destroyed or dismantled
beforehand. Anbar led the country with 99 VBIEDs only one of which was
successful. There were another 37 in Salahaddin, 21 in Ninewa, 5 in Baghdad,
and one each in Diyala and Kirkuk.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com