Connecting to a rising tide of data

Organisations able to harness the power offered by the massive digital stores of information that exist will be best placed to succeed in the future.
Photo: Bloomberg

by
Ian Grayson | Ian Grayson

Information technology has radically altered the business world during the past two decades, yet this impact pales in comparison with what lies ahead.

Massive advances in data storage, processing and artificial intelligence will create a plethora of new services and capabilities that will usher in fundamental changes to every sector.

Experts agree the business world of 2100 will be a radically different place, but the pace of technological change makes predicting those differences a difficult task.

Australian futurist
Ross Dawson
says studying the technological trends happening now allows reasonable insights into what conditions will be like for about the next decade. Beyond that, however, uncertainty levels quickly increase.

“One of the most transformative forces at work will continue to be connectivity," says Dawson. “You only have to look back at the impact of technologies such as the telephone and the internet on business and work. Future connectivity will extend far beyond this."

Related Quotes

Company Profile

Dawson says another mega-trend that will emerge during the coming decades will be the application of computing power to human cognitive tasks. Many jobs that today are done by people will be replaced by sophisticated software programs and ­algorithms.

“This trend really started in the industrial revolution where machines replaced labour," he says. “Now a large proportion of value is being created in knowledge work areas and this is where computers will move from being complementary tools to actually doing the entire job. This will have a ­dramatic impact on business and on humanity."

Many in the technology sector are also closely watching the dramatic growth in the sheer amount of information that exists in the world. They believe organisations that are able to harness the power offered by these massive digital stores will be best placed to succeed in the future.

President and chief operating officer of data storage specialist
EMC
,
David Goulden
says most businesses are not aware how this rising tide will change the way they operate during coming decades. Sources include everything from business transactions and internal computing systems to machine-to-machine communication and sensor ­networks.

“It’s still very early days," he says. “Most people don’t yet have an understanding of the amount of data that is out there and what will be generated in the future."

Goulden says it’s important for organisations to understand the challenges and opportunities that technology will create, but they also have to realise it is very difficult to make accurate predictions of where it is all going.

“If anyone is telling you they are planning more than three years out, they are dreaming," he says. “People used to talk about five and ten-year cycles but that is no longer ­possible."

The challenges of accurately predicting the future direction and impact of ­technology is particularly acute for IT companies .

To succeed, they must plan, develop and invest well ahead of market demand.

Futurists at work

Intel Australia and New Zealand
managing director
Kate Burleigh
says the chip giant takes a minimum of a five-year view for its business activities. It also has a team of futurists looking up to 40 years ahead to identify emerging trends.

“In the future, we won’t talk about personal computers, but about personal ­computing," says Burleigh.

“Rather than having a single device that does multiple things, there will be multiple devices that business people can use depending on exactly what they need to do."

Like Dawson, Burleigh believes connectivity will become an increasing important trend during the remainder of this century with the pace of new connections rising ­dramatically. “By 2020 it’s estimated there will be 50 billion connected devices in the world," she says.

“It took until just a couple of years ago to hit the first billion."

On the computing power front, Burleigh doesn’t expect any slowdown from the ­exponential growth the industry has achieved during the past 20 years. She points to Moore’s Law, which says chip performance doubles every 18 months, saying “no one is talking about that law going away any time soon".

Gartner
analyst
Steve Prentice
agrees, saying the pace of technological change that has been seen during the past 50 years is just a precursor to what is to come. “The underlying technology, which has been silicon, is likely to shift to organically based platforms," he says. “This will open up opportunities for a range of devices and services that we are yet to imagine."

But, rather than trying to predict what sorts of gadgets we will be carrying and using during the next century, Prentice says it is just as important to think about what it will mean for humans.

“Trying to predict technology developments in the longer term is very difficult, but what we should certainly be thinking about is the effect it’s going to have," he says. “At the end of the day, technology is all about people and people don’t change quite so quickly."

The biggest medical advances in coming decades will emerge from an increased ability to understand the complex linkages within the human body, an international expert says.

Highly regarded burns specialist and former Australian of the Year Dr
Fiona Wood
believes researchers will make massive strides in treatment as they focus on how all the components that make us human really fit together.

“We currently have some capacity to understand the inter-relationships between all of the human body’s components – from genetics to metabolics and physiology – and how they all interact," she says.

“But extending this knowledge in coming decades will allow us to achieve far, far more."

Dr Wood says the deep understanding from research will allow be medical treatment to be tailored to individuals.

Rather than prescribing drugs that tend to work on groups of people, they will be created to deal with specific problems faced by a single person.

“This will be a vast opportunity and one that has huge potential benefits for us all," she says. “It narrows treatments down to a population of one."

However, to ensure that sufficient intellectual and financial resources are available for this work, Wood says another big challenge in the years ahead will be getting people to take responsibility for their own circumstances.

“At the moment, the system works in a way where people come in and we fix them. As costs and demand increases, this approach becomes unsustainable.

“We all have to stop and realise the most important thing for a sustainable country is a sustainable health service, and to have that we must take personal responsibility for our health, wellness and education. This is a huge challenge and will remain so well into this century."

Once it’s achieved, however, through education and awareness, resources can then be allocated to exciting areas of research that can deliver valuable, long-term outcomes.

“I am a world-class optimist," Wood says. “The next 100 years will be full of medical advances that we can only imagine."