Has HP lost its spot as the top PC maker to Lenovo? Does it even matter?

Gartner, one of the top market research firms tracking the personal computer business, released numbers on Wednesday that show HP is no longer the best-selling PC manufacturer in the world. Third-quarter sales, based on Gartner’s figures, hand that crown to Lenovo, the Chinese company that bought IBM’s PC business in 2005.

The Gartner report had bad news for the PC business as a whole, saying overall sales for the quarter declined across the industry. Even Apple, which has enjoyed surging sales while the rest of the personal computer industry lagged, showed a sequential decline.

While analysts agree that these are sucky times to be selling PCs, they apparently don’t have a consensus on who’s the top dog. IDC, another major research firm, says HP retains its crown, but by a slim margin.

There’s a standoff this afternoon in the world of PC counting: Research firm Gartner says that for the first time ever, Lenovo (0992HK) topped Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) in Q3 personal computer sales, while IDC says that by their count, Lenovo came very close but didn’t quite surpass HP.

Gartner‘s tally of Q3 sales, reported this afternoon says Q3 PC shipments fell 8.3%, year over year, to 87.5 million, representing “a continuing slowdown in consumer PC shipments” but also a clearing of inventory during a “transition” before Microsoft‘s (MSFT) release of its Windows 8 on October 26th.

Gartner says Lenovo topped Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) in Q3 sales, taking 15.7% of the market, up from 13.1% a year earlier, with volume of 13.77 million units.

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IDC, however, says in its own report that Lenovo didn’t quite topple HP. IDC has a figure of 13.95 million units for HP, 13.82 million for Lenovo. Dell is still in 3rd place in IDC’s count, with 9.5 million units.

HP took umbrage with the Gartner report, taking pains to point out that the Gartner number does not include professional workstations, of which HP sells a slew:

“While there are a variety of PC share reports in the market, some don’t measure the market in its entirety. The IDC analysis includes the very important workstation segment and therefore is more comprehensive. In that IDC report, HP occupies the No. 1 position in PCs.”

Still, the trajectories of HP and Lenovo would indicate it’s only a matter of time before HP loses the title. Check out the global PC sales charts from Gartner and IDC. You’ll note that, of the top PC makers in the world, only Lenovo and Asus show growth.

Note that these declines happened in a quarter that normally sees a bump from back-to-school sales. That clearly didn’t materialize.

What’s happening? Both companies say the rise of smartphones and tablets play a role, as people are spending money on those devices that might otherwise go to replacing a PC.

There’s also the Windows factor. Microsoft is set to release a new version of its desktop operating system on Oct. 26, and it’s possible there’s a pause in the market as buyers – particularly at the corporate level – wait and watch. However, the dramatic change in Windows’ interface in this new version could mean people opt to stick with Windows 7 for a while on existing machines. This time around, a new version of Windows may not produce the usual surge in hardware sales.

This is purely anecdotal, but it may be significant: Usually, before a new version of Windows is released, I hear from a lot of readers who want to know what they should do to prepare for an upgrade. This time around: Crickets. I’ve gotten very few queries about it. Jay Lee, my Technology Bytes co-host who also writes our Help Line blog and column, tells me he’s hearing the same thing – i.e., deafening silence. Our readers – who are everyday computer users, not techies or enthusiasts – simply aren’t asking about Windows 8.

That could be an aberration, or it could be a demographics factor – newspaper readers are increasingly older, and thus often risk-averse. But again, this lack of curiosity is a dramatic difference from the days just before the release of Windows 7.

Whatever the case, the PC business is at a turning point as the way people use personal technology is changing. The old patterns are being disrupted, as the dismal numbers show. It may not matter much who’s on top of the PC mountain right now, because it’s a business that appears to be declining in relevancy.