000
FXUS63 KMKX 061620
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1020 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
.UPDATE...
A cold front is moving east across western Wisconsin with a narrow
band of light snow and drizzle occurring ahead of it. The deeper
lift/moisture will remain over central Wisconsin, so expect that
there is a higher shot at seeing drizzle over the light snow as
the ice region doesn`t appear to have any moisture in it.
Temperatures are at or above freezing, so am not expecting any
icing issues from freezing drizzle.
Ahead of this front, the boundary layer remains fairly saturated
due to snow melt, light winds and a shallow inversion.
Visibilities have started to creep up, so am expecting that we
will be able to let the dense fog advisory expire at 11am. After
the front moves through this afternoon, temperatures will start
dropping with a brief period of clearing possible though some low
clouds have been forming in the wake of the front in that area.
Winds will become gusty out of the west as well after frontal
passage.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
IFR to LIFR conditions remain in place through much of south
central Wisconsin with the higher conditions near the lake. These
low stratus/visibilities will continue into this afternoon until
the cold front moves through and the drier/gustier air moves in.
MVFR ceilings of around 2kft are expected into tonight as the back
side of the low pressure system moves through.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will become gusty this afternoon after a cold front moves
through the region. Gusts will get into the 30kt range out of the
west after the front comes through and will last into Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 422 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...Areas of dense fog has once again developed
south and southwest of Madison. Additional fog formation is expected
as winds become light ahead of the strong cold front passage
expected for the afternoon. An upper trough axis will swing newd
through srn WI this afternoon along with the passage of the front.
There will be a small window for light snow due to these features
with better chances north of Madison. Brisk wly winds and strong
cold advection will then prevail into tonight.
WEDNESDAY THOUGH FRIDAY...Forecast Confidence...High
High pressure will slowly approach and then move through the
region Wed through Fri. It will likely be mainly dry with below
normal temps through this period under the influence of the high.
Not out of the question to see a few snowflakes as a weak wave
rolls through Thursday, but not enough confidence for widespread
pops at this time.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
Models are in decent agreement in bringing snow chances back to
the area by later Saturday and into Sunday as a wave moves in
behind the departing high. The GFS and Canadian solutions have a
more amplified wave and stronger surface low, bringing higher snow
totals to the forecast area. The ECMWF continues to have a weaker
wave and is also farther north, bringing lighter accumulations to
southern Wisconsin. This storm is worth keeping an eye on, given
the potential for several inches of snow with the GFS/Canadian
solutions.
Below normal temps are expected to continue for the weekend.
MONDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
Models are in pretty good agreement bringing high pressure in
Monday behind the departing system. There are significant model
differences with the timing of when the coldest arrives though,
so stuck close to a blend of model temps.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Stratus clouds and fog will continue over the
area today until the cold front arrives during the afternoon. Cigs
will remain mostly below 1 kft. Vsbys with the fog will have a large
range but overall 1-3 miles is expected at the TAF sites with areas
of dense fog over south central WI. Only chances of a brief period
of light snow today mainly over south central WI. It appears the
stratus clouds will then become scattered after the cold frontal
passage later this afternoon and tonight.
MARINE...High waves may linger this morning near Sheboygan.
Otherwise brisk wly winds will arrive over the western shore of Lake
MI around the middle of the afternoon and continue into Wed. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for the lingering high waves and the
brisk wly winds. The Small Craft Advisory may have to be extended
into Thu-Fri for more expected brisk wnwly winds.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning for WIZ062-
067>069.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday for LMZ643.
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CST this morning for WIZ057-058-
062>064-067>069.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CST
Wednesday for LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM CST Wednesday for LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Halbach
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring
Wednesday THROUGH Monday...DDV