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Sunday, April 06, 2014

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 25

Week 25 was a spotlight on the Washington Capitals’
season.Four games, three losses, two
losses in the Gimmick, one win, next to zero chance of making the playoffs at
its conclusion.

Record: 1-2-1

The thing about looking at games on a weekly basis is that
the ebbs and flows come into sharper focus. The 1-2-1 record in Week 25 was the
fourth week in five in which the Caps finished below .500 (6-7-4 over that span).Over the last dozen weeks Washington has had
seven losing weeks, compiling a record of 15-16-9.What made it worse in Week 25 was that of the
four teams the Caps played, three of them had fewer standings points, and one –
Dallas, a 5-0 winner on Tuesday – was only two points ahead of the Caps in the
league standings when they met.As it
was, the Caps opened the week in tenth place in the Eastern Conference, two
points out of a wild card spot.When the
week ended, they were still two points out of a playoff spot, but now with
three teams to pass, not two, to reach that wild card spot.

Offense: 1.75/game (season: 2.72 / rank: 14th)

It was a dry week in the offensive end of the ice for the
Caps.And, it was not even as good as it
looked.Nicklas Backstrom had a hand in
five of the seven goals scored by the Caps (2-3-5).After that, only four other Caps recorded
goals: Troy Brouwer (2), Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Joel Ward.It was an especially frustrating week other
respects as well.

For instance, three of the clubs the Caps faced – Nashville,
Dallas, and the New York Islanders – ranked in the bottom ten in scoring
defense.Then there were the
goaltenders.The Caps did manage three
goals on 26 shots against Nashville backup Carter Hutton, but they could not
solve him in the freestyle competition and lost.They got only one puck past New Jersey’s Cory
Schneider, who might be more of a “1a” goalie than a backup at this point, but
going into his game against the Caps he was 3-3-2 in nine appearances since the
Olympic break, with a 2.87 GAA and a .876 save percentage.

The Caps managed one standings point in those two games and
managed neither a goal nor a standings point against Kari Lehtonen, with whom
the Caps were quite familiar from his days with the Atlanta Thrashers.As it would turn out, Lehtonen extended his
unbeaten streak against the Caps since departing Atlanta to three games, over
which he has allowed only three goals on 93 shots.

Defense: 3.75/game (season: 2.90 / rank: 24th)

Mark Twain once wrote, “facts are stubborn, but statistics
are more pliable.”The two seem to
converge when it comes to the Caps’ defense.The Caps were outshot in all four games this week, bringing to nine the
number of consecutive games in which Washington was out-shot and 11 out of
their last 12 contests.The four games
this week make it 54 times this season that the Caps have been out-shot by
opponents, the 69.2 percent share of games being out-shot ranking third-highest
in the league behind Toronto (78.5) and Buffalo (79.2).Making it worse, the Caps have the sixth
worst winning percentage in the league when they are out-shot (22-23-9, .407).

The shots-on-goal results are merely the product of the same
possession woes that have plagued the Caps all season.In 5-on-5 close score situations the Caps
struggled to top 40 percent in both Corsi-for (41.6) and Fenwick-for (41.6) percentages
for the week.It should be no surprise that
the Caps were outscored for the week in those situations, 9-4.In all, the Caps have topped 50 percent in
Fenwick-for percentage in these situations only 26 times in 77 games.They are 10-12-4 in those games, but among
those ten wins are four in extra time, three in the Gimmick.

Goaltending: 3.13 / .903 (season: 2.78 / .915 / 3 shutouts)

The problem with allowing a lot of shots on goal is that it
puts pressure on goalies to post high save percentages, not the easiest thing
to do when random elements like pucks hitting posts and going in or hitting
bodies or sticks in front and going in being a feature of the sport.It also does not help when the goalies have
an iffy week generally.The latter was
more the case for the Caps in Week 25.Combined, Jaroslav Halak and Braden Holtby posted a 3.13 goals against
average and a .903 save percentage.They
were remarkably consistent with one another, which is another way of saying
remarkably mediocre.Halak was 3.11/.904
in 154 minutes of ice time, Holtby was 3.15/.902 in 95 minutes.

Looking at the two goalies individually, their performances
were not very much alike.Halak’s week
by period was a slow drift downward, as far as save percentage is
concerned.Halak’s first periods (three
in all) were played to a .906 save percentage, followed by .903 in the second
period (three periods, one of which he was relieved by Holtby), and .882 in the
third period (two periods).

On the other hand, Holtby was superb in the only first
period in which he played, stopping 16 of 17 shots against the Islanders on
Saturday (a .941 save percentage).The other two periods were
something less than superb -- .857 in the second periods of games and .889 in
the third.

Power Play: 2-17 / 11.8 percent (season: 23.0 percent /
rank: 2nd)

When your offense is so dependent on the power play, and it
has a bad week, you are not going to generate a lot of offense.The power play in Week 25 had its worst week
since converting only one of 19 chances in Week 17.The Caps started the week in good shape,
converting two of four chances against Nashville on Sunday.However, that would be it for the week on the power
play.After going 2-for-4 against the
Predators on six shots in 4:52 of power play time, the Caps misfired on 19
shots over 20:22 of power play time on 13 power plays to close the week.

Not that the Caps were getting shots from people they don’t
want shooting the puck.Alex Ovechkin
had five of the 25 shots on goal, as did John Carlson.Neither could rustle the twine in the back of
the net, though.Troy Brouwer had one goal
on five shots.Add in Nicklas Backstrom,
who went 0-for-4, and the Caps biggest guns on the top unit were 1-for-19. It
was just a bad week.

The penalty killers, on the other hand, had a pretty good
week.It started very well when the Caps
didn’t have to skate shorthanded against Nashville last Sunday.It was the third time this season that the
Caps stayed out of the box, the second time in 12 games (they also escaped
skating shorthanded on March 6th against Boston).

The Caps were not so fortunate in the other three games of
Week 25, but they rose to the challenge in killing off 11 of 12 shorthanded
situations.It continued a stretch of
good effort when asked to kill off penalties.By week’s end the Caps were 34-for-38 (89.5 percent) over their last
dozen games.

It was a shared effort.The Caps held opponents to 18 shots on goal in 18:18 of shorthanded ice
time, and Jaroslav Halak and Braden Holtby combined to stop 17 of those 18
shots.Halak’s perfect 11-for-11 for the
week lifted his save percentage with the Caps when shorthanded from .948 to
.958.That save percentage with the Caps
is more than 80 points better than it was with St. Louis (.876).

The Caps had an uncommonly poor week at even strength, even
by their modest standards.It is not
likely a coincidence that the only game in which they won the even strength battle
(3-2 against the Islanders to close the week) was the only game they won.Otherwise the Caps were two goals up and nine
down, a really bad recipe for success.Granted, four of those goals against came in the 5-0 loss to Dallas, but
that game also represents one of the Caps’ worst performances of the season.

Not only were the Caps were out-shot at even strength in all
four games, they were barely half as efficient as their opponents in the shots
they did manage to direct on goal.Washington shot to 5.6 percent for the week (5-for-90) while opponents
were shooting 9.7 percent (11-for-113) at even strength.It left the Caps in a run-down neighborhood
in the league’s 5-on-5 goals scored/goals against ratio.Only Florida, Calgary, Edmonton, and Buffalo
are worse, and the Islanders and Nashville are tied with Washington for 25th
place.

Faceoffs: 119-244 / 48.8 percent (season: 48.7 percent /
rank: 23rd)

Another week, another week under 50 percent in the
circle.It was not quite as bad as all
that, though.The Caps were above 50
percent in the offensive and defensive zones for the week, doing poorly only in
the neutral zone (33-for-76/43.4 percent).There was one especially poor overall game, and it was one that the Caps
needed to win.Washington won just 20 of
49 draws against New Jersey, only 4-for-14 in the defensive zone, in their 2-1
loss to the Devils.

The Caps lost the week and lost all three periods.Scoring just one third period goal was
troublesome, even if that goal – scored on a power play by Nicklas Backstrom
against Nashville – tied the contest and led to the Caps securing a standings
point.They were consistent,
though.Washington allowed goals in nine
of the 12 regulation periods played this week and were outscored in seven
periods in regulation.

In the end…

As we said at the top, “Four games, three losses, two losses
in the Gimmick, one win.”Three points
in four games.The Caps were two goals
in regulation away from two additional points, those being the games against
Nashville (a 4-3 Gimmick loss) and a 2-1 loss to New Jersey in regulation.If the Caps had secured those points, they would
be a tie-breaker out of a wild card spot.Then again, it is like an old English rhyme:

If wishes were horses then beggars would ride,

If turnips were swords I’d have one by my side.

If ‘ifs’ and ‘ands’ were pots and pans,

There would be no need for tinker’s hands!

Unfortunately, after not getting those two points in Week 25
by the thinnest of margins and there being only one week left in the regular
season, the Caps are likely to have no need of scheduling playoff games,
either.

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The Washington Capitals enter the 2016-2017 as one of 12 franchises in the NHL never to win a Stanley Cup. Of that group, only the St. Louis Blues (48 seasons), Buffalo Sabres (45 seasons), and Vancouver Canucks (45 seasons) have gone longer never having won a Cup than the Capitals (41 seasons). Six teams came into the league after the Capitals entered the league in 1974-1975 and have won Stanley Cups: Colorado Rockies/New Jersey Devils (1976-1977), Edmonton Oilers (1979-1980), Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche (1979-1980), Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes (1979-1980), Tampa Bay Lightning (1992-1993), and the Anaheim Ducks (1993-1994).

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