By the November 27, 2010, Victorian state election the ALP will have been in power for 11 continuous years. If it wins that election and lasts until 2014, it will have been in power for 25 of the 32 years from 1982. The Kennett government will then look like a very aberrant neo-liberal regime and Henry Bolte's 1960s boast that "Victoria was the jewel in the Liberal Party's crown" will sound very odd to generations of voters. Is the result of the next election as predictable as its date?