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NFL Picks

NFL Betting: Broncos vs. Patriots Betting the Spread

Fans of the New England Patriots are
foaming at the mouth, but they should be worrying about Denver being favored by nearly a field goal on the
Week 12 NFL lines.

Jason’s
record on his final NFL picks for 2013, up to November 19 inclusive:

27-23-2
ATS

1-1
ML (+0.71 units)

5-8-1
Totals

The New England Patriots have nobody to
blame but themselves. They were down 24-20 to the Carolina Panthers on Monday
night, and they had just one minute left to drive the ball downfield – which
they nearly did, but on the last play, the referees picked up a flag that had
been thrown for defensive pass interference in the end zone. Carolina won the
game and beat the NFL odds as 3-point home faves.

I had Carolina
(and the UNDER),
so easy for me to say. But if you’re an aggrieved Patriots supporter, there’s
no point getting worked up over Monday’s last minute of play. There were 59
other minutes in that game that count just as much, and New England had its
share of favorable calls. No NFL bet is worth tilting over. Just remember all
the times you got paid when a call went your way, and focus on the thing that
matters most: the next game.

[gameodds]16/227042/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Sunday
Night Live

And what a game it is. We’re talking Sunday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET,
NBC) with the mighty Denver Broncos coming to town in a potential AFC
Championship preview. The Broncos (9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) are coming off a 27-17
victory over the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs, cashing in as
7.5-point home faves and taking over first place in the AFC West. The Week 12
NFL betting lines have Denver favored again at –2.5 for Sunday’s matchup in
Foxborough.

I guess it’s only fair to point out I whiffed
on the Broncos-Chiefs game. What was I smoking? Actually, Denver gets full
credit for stepping up at the defensive end, forcing Kansas City to punt seven
times and scooping up an Anthony Sherman fumble at the Denver 18. This was an
unusually solid performance for a team that had the No. 20-ranked defense in
the league going into Week 11. You can make that No. 17 overall (No. 21 pass,
No. 8 rush) following the win over the Chiefs.

Manning:
Valuable Player

It’s usually pretty easy to pull the
trigger and fade a team that has a fantastic offense and a substandard defense.
But the Denver Broncos don’t have just any offense. They have one of the very
best offenses to grace an NFL field in the past 25 years. Through Week 11,
Denver has out-produced every other team in the league (No. 1 pass, No. 12
rush), and QB Peyton Manning is almost certainly going to win his fifth MVP
award. Manning leads the league in just about every positive QB statistic, both
standard and advanced:

We could go on. Suffice to say, Manning is
The Man at this point. New England QB Tom Brady, on the other hand, is having a
so-so year for the Patriots (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS), who sit at No. 11 on the
offensive efficiency charts (No. 14 pass, No. 7 rush) following their encounter
with the Panthers. As for the New England defense, it slips from No. 10 to No.
14 overall (No. 13 pass, No. 19 rush) through Week 11; CB Aqib Talib re-injured
his hip late in the Carolina game and is uncertain for Sunday night.

The Broncos are also unsure whether WR Wes
Welker (concussion) will be ready for Sunday, but I’m going to go ahead and
make them my NFL pick anyway. If Denver can play defense like this the rest of the way,
look out.