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For the past few seasons, I have used the previous year's voting results as a guide for my HOF ballot. This season I will continue that trend, but I am going to use a different metric to evaluate the top options in terms of HOF worthiness. Previously, I have used the Career Standard Score (a Bill James invention) which does a nice job. However, I use Wins Above Replacement for other blog posts and it's more easily understood than some of Bill James' other creations so I figured that I should use it for this if possible.

Last night, I discovered a Runs Created calculator that I can plug the career numbers of the hitters into and then convert from Runs Created to WAR quite easily. I also have access to a WAR calculator for pitchers, but putting career numbers into that gives me wacky results. Neither will method will match the more precise method that I have used for other blog posts exactly, but it is much easier for full careers and will be a good indicator of HOF-worthiness. Without further ado, here's a look at last years results and a WAR-centered rundown of the top candidates this season.

Above are the results from last season's voting...nobody made the cut, but there were certainly a number of deserving candidates:

Last but not least, let's compare all of the candidates to those guys who have already made the cut. Using the metrics I've been tracking above, here's a look at the position-by-position averages for current Plumpy HOF members:

--> Average Hall of Fame 1B = 88.88 WAR
--> Average Hall of Fame 3B = 55.49 WAR
--> Average Hall of Fame RF = 70.52 WAR
--> Average SP Career Standard Score = 52.5
--> Average RP Career Standard Score = 22.1

Based on those averages, the following players are above "Hall of Fame average" and definitely deserve to be inducted:

David Campos

As of right now, the rest of the field stacks up as follows in terms of WAR:

Gregorio Astacio (64.47)

Elian Rojas Jr (60.47)

Maikel Romano (55.40)

Yogi Gray (52.92)

Pablo Macias (51.85)

Alexi Franco (41.90)

Raul Chantres (38.52)

Guy Gorzelanny (35.96)

Rod DeJean (28.74)

Otto Dillon (28.20)

Mariano Infante (-3.33)

***MORE WILL BE ADDED TO THIS LIST IF THEY COME UP ON WORLD CHAT AND/OR I HAVE TIME TO DO THE MATH!

Since this world and one that I commish (Around The Horn) are on exactly the same schedule, I'm quite a bit later in posting my annual look at the awards ballot using WAR totals. If people are interested, I think my next project is going to be one of two things: a draft review using advanced metrics like WAR, or an investigation into career WAR. For now, though, here's what this season's ballot looks like:

AL MVP

Jose Cedeno (DH-Houston), 8.33 WAR

Dayton Tanner (RF-Syracuse), 6.84 WAR

Preston Workman (3B-Buffalo), 4.95 WAR

Juan Carlos Lugo (1B-Tacoma), 6.15 WAR

Orlando Rienzo (RF-Ottawa), 5.55 WAR

NL MVP

Julio Gonzales (C-Scranton), 6.25 WAR

Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 6.83 WAR

Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 6.26 WAR

Nigel Sugawara (3B-Salt Lake City), 5.97 WAR

Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 8.63 WAR

AL Cy Young

Oswaldo Bravo (SP-Helena), 5.49 WAR

Patrick Yarnall (SP-Buffalo), 3.53 WAR

Bruce Cosart (SP-Helena), 5.71 WAR

Didi Sanchez (RP-San Juan), 0.94 WAR

Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartliff), 0.87 WAR

NL Cy Young

Quinton Strickland (SP-Montgomery), 6.07 WAR

Yasiel Arias (SP-Scranton), 5.64 WAR

Chick Paredes (SP-Anaheim), 5.02 WAR

Brandon Peters (SP-Toronto), 4.76 WAR

Edward Coomer (SP-Montgomery), 3.47 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

Cy Medina (RP-San Juan), -0.88 WAR

Charles Rua (LF-Syracuse), 3.78 WAR

Mike Snyder (LF-Toledo), 5.15 WAR

Lars Oberacker (CF-Chicago, AL), 4.95 WAR

Louie Jose (P-Milwaukee), 2.31 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

Peter Brow (SP-St. Louis), 2.65 WAR

JC Franklin (3B-Montgomery), 3.75 WAR

JP Mercado (3B-Cleveland), 5.09 WAR

Jerry Bennett (RP-San Francisco), 0.91 WAR

Ray Corcoran (SP-Vancouver), 1.33 WAR

This is a bit later than I typically post this, but I finally have some time to go through the end of season awards ballot to evaluate each of the candidates using Wins Above Replacement. These figures are park-adjusted, and the pitcher's totals are also based on the Fielding Independent Pitching statistic (as well as batting prowess-or lack thereof- where appropriate), so I've long felt these are the best representation of individual performance that are (somewhat) easily derived from the information provided to us by WIS. Here's how this year's ballot breaks down:

AL MVP

Luther Stowers (LF-New York), 11.39 WAR

Jose Cedeno (DH-Atlanta), 7.78 WAR

Chip Kinsler (3B-Buffalo), 7.79 WAR

Peter Reininger (3B-Atlanta), 4.42 WAR

Orlando Rienzo (RF-Ottawa), 6.05 WAR

NL MVP

Lewis Hatley (SS-Scranton), 8.03 WAR

Livan Guerrero (RF-Anaheim), 5.97 WAR

Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 8.36 WAR

Randy Pose (2B-Scranton), 5.83 WAR

Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.88 WAR

AL Cy Young

David Giavotella (SP-Atlanta), 4.57 WAR

Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Atlanta), 4.53 WAR

Tsuyoshi Suh (SP-Buffalo), 4.95 WAR

Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.81 WAR

Victor Olmedo (SP, Chicago-AL), 4.30 WAR

NL Cy Young

Ryan Ingram (SP-Anaheim), 4.45 WAR

Yasiel Arias (SP-Scranton), 3.52 WAR

Chick Prades (SP-Anaheim), 3.31 WAR

Xander Cruz (St. Louis), 4.33 WAR

Miller Ray (SP-Scranton), 4.54 WAR

AL Rookie of the Year

Pat Brasier (1B-Nashville), 3.78 WAR

Rubi Altuve (C, Chicago-AL), 2.52 WAR

Shunsuke Matsui (RF-Atlanta), 2.43 WAR

Herman Palmer (1B-Milwaukee), 5.48 WAR

Ellis Vettleson (RF-Milwaukee), 3.76 WAR

NL Rookie of the Year

Chick Prades (SP-Anaheim), 3.31 WAR

Victor Bennett (SP-Jackson), 1.55 WAR

Yean Carlos Manzanillo (RP-Tampa Bay), 0.08 WAR

Fernando Astacio (SP-San Francisco), 1.24 WAR

Calvin Krol (LF-St. Louis), 2.48 WAR

Season 50

Last season, we got three very deserving candidates into the Hall of Fame, although there are still quite a few other deserving candidates left to go. Below is a look at the voting results from last season:

Looking at that list, let’s take a look at the “next five up” to see if the top five non-elected vote getters from last season are worthy of getting in this season:

Player

Career Standard Score

HOF Worthiness

Pablo Macias

63.90 points as RF

“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Desi Pena

56.90 points as RF

“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Don Webster

50.90 points as SP

“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Midre Tarasco

45.60 points as SP

“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Ringo Oliver

25.80 points as RP

“Eventual Hall of Famer”

Since all of those guys are HOF-worthy, that makes this year’s voting easy and this post quite short☺

Much like I have for the past couple of seasons, I am going to provide the WAR totals for each of the nominees in the various award categories along with a little bit of commentary explaining who I voted for and why. Thanks also to Brian (raidersfan91sc) for the assist in putting the data together...without further ado, your S49 Awards Races:

AL MVP

Del Kondou (3B-Salem), 8.29 WAR

Donn Oliver (1B-Texas), 9.72 WAR

Tsuyoshi Lo (1B-Buffalo), 8.45 WAR

Lenn Posey (DH-New York), 7.83 WAR

Luther Stowers (LF-New York), 8.34 WAR

I can totally understand the support Kondou has been getting on the World Chat...putting up 8+ WAR in your age 33 season is certainly impressive...but I have to go with Oliver who is more than a full win clear of any of the other four and who contributed nearly 2 full WAR of defense this season.

NL MVP

Christopher Perry (2B-Montgomery), 6.47 WAR

Cesar Cairo (3B-Jacksonville), 8.57 WAR

Enny Cayones (LF-Scranton), 7.47 WAR

Valerio Suarez (2B-Anaheim), 5.42 WAR

Odalis Marmol (RF-Tampa Bay), 7.17 WAR

This is another fairly easy choice, with the WAR leader being over a full win ahead of the next guy. I was a little bit surprised (and a bit disappointed) to see Suarez's name on this list, though, since I let him walk before the year started and then struggled to find a replacement...here's hoping that I hit on the picks I got for him.

AL Cy Young

Adam Maybin (SP-Syracuse), 4.53 WAR

Kip Ratliff (RP-Hartford), 0.69 WAR

Orber Guerrero (SP-Atlanta), 3.71 WAR

Jhoulys Sosa (SP-Atlanta), 4.48 WAR

Maicer Silva (SP-Tacoma), 2.97 WAR

Even though I've got a horse in this race, I won't be voting for him...this is a two horse race between Maybin and Sosa. I'm giving the edge to Maybin since he hasn't had as much help as Sosa did (evidenced by the fact that Sosa's teammate is also nominated.)

NL Cy Young

Juan Escuela (SP-Toronto), 2.92 WAR

Nigel Maybin (SP-Jacksonville), 3.88 WAR

Shelby Jorgensen (SP-Tampa Bay), 2.39 WAR

Clarence Roache (SP-Louisville), 2.91 WAR

Yasiel Arias (SP-Montgomery), 3.96 WAR

These WAR totals all include hitting ability, or lack thereof, so if you're thinking they they seem a little low that's probably why. The good thing is that they're all more or less equally bad at the plate so for the purposes of comparison the above totals will do just fine.

AL Rookie of the Year

Dixon Gibson (SP-Helena), 2.56 WAR

Tim Burks (1B-Nashville), 3.07 WAR

Orlando Rienzo (1B-Ottawa), 5.24 WAR

Roger Diamond (RF-Tacoma), 2.12 WAR

Derrin Plunk (DH-Chicago), 2.51 WAR

Once again, I find myself voting for someone other than my guy simply because the leading candidate is so far out in front of the field. Rienzo's season ended up being more than 2 wins better than any of the other four candidates who finished the season on the ballot. This is just about as easy as they come in terms of voting decisions.

NL Rookie of the Year

York Bonds (LF-Scranton), 6.17 WAR

Kendry Osuna (SP-Scranton), 3.94 WAR

Mac Zhang (LF-Toronto), 5.77 WAR

Julian Kelly (2B-Charlotte), 4.87 WAR

Sean Leathersich (LF-Montgomery), 5.52 WAR

Right now I'm guessing that Zhang and Leathersich are both wishing they were AL players since they clearly had better rookie years than any of the AL nominees and yet will likely come up short in the NL. That's because York Bonds put up a WAR total that is superior to Suarez's total that got him nominated for the NL MVP.

Each season, some of the best individual performances are recorded and highlighted by the WIS engine...but they get erased at the end of the year so I figured this would be a good place to keep a longer term record of those. Also, I have recently determined a way in which we can figure out once and for all who had the best individual performance of the season. Keeping records here also allows us to make cross-season references (starting in Season 49, since that's when this idea occurred to me.)

To evaluate each hitting performance, I am going to use a slightly modified version of the "ESPN Rating" which is essentially a Game Score for hitters that ESPN came up with. It is traditionally scored in the following manner:

Baseline score of 59

+1 point per hit

+1 point per run scored

+0.25 points per walk

+1 point for each Total Base

+0.25 points per steal

-0.25 points per caught stealing attempt

+0.25 points per Sac Fly

+0.25 points per Sac Hit

+1 point per RBI

-0.25 points per strikeout

-0.25 point per non-productive out

This doesn't account for defense whatsoever, and in my humble opinion having a great game in the field on top of a great day at the plate is what really identifies the best of the best. At the same time, having a great day at the plate can be somewhat dampened by a miscue or two in the field. To that end, I've decided to add a defensive portion to the ESPN rating, which will consist of the following categories and point values:

+0.25 points per putout

+0.25 points per infield assist

+0.50 points per outfield assist

-1 point per error

-0.25 points per passed ball

+0.25 points per runner caught stealing (by catcher)

+1 point per "plus" play

-1 point per "minus" play

For pitchers, I'm going to use Bill James' Game Score, which is calculated using the following criteria:

Baseline score of 50

+1 point per out recorded

+2 points per inning pitched after the 4th

+1 point per strikeout

-2 points per hit allowed

-4 points per earned run allowed

-2 points per unearned run allowed

-1 point per walk allowed

Looking at this season's Noteworthy Games, all but one are hitting performances through the first 121 games of the regular season. Here's a quick breakdown of each of them (for reference, the best score-batting only-in MLB so far this season is 86.5 by Josh Bell in his 3 HR game on July 1st):

My previous post regarding impartial trade evaluations was based on a Draft Value Chart that originated in the football universe, so it was admittedly a little bit flawed. However, thanks to FanGraphs Audio podcast Effectively Wild and the associated Facebook group, I have recently stumbled upon the website Baseball Trade Values. In addition to being super fun to mess around with on the subject of MLB hypotheticals, it also provides a nice model of how to assess trades here in Hardball Dynasty.

For those of you who didn't click the link above, here's the most important portion of the article that they've written explaining how they calculate a player's trade value: "On the surface, calculating trade value is relatively simple: Field value – salary = surplus ...What do we mean by 'field value'? (By the way, that’s our term. We don’t know if anyone else uses it.) It’s an estimate of how much that player is worth on the field."

They then go onto explain that they take the following items into consideration when calculating "field value":

1) Dollars-Per-WAR. They explain that they've figured out that MLB teams pay roughly $9M per WAR in Free Agency and use that as their baseline in calculations. However, in Hardball Dynasty, the maximum amount you can pay a Free Agent is $30M per season and the high end of the WAR spectrum is typically around 10 WAR in a given season, so here in HBD it would be more like $3M per WAR. 2) Projections. They use projections based on advanced models such as the ones on FanGraphs, which are likely more advanced than the system that I use. However, I do have a method for estimating a player's WAR value in Hardball Dynasty, so that's what I'll use for the projections in this system.

3) Inflation. Thanks to the constant $185M budget, this is not something we need to account for here.

4) Years of Control. This is pretty straight forward, with the exception of guys on rookie contracts. For those players, the idea is that they'd get arbitrated if their projected WAR is bigger than zero...but if it's negative, they'd get released and are considered under control up until the end of their rookie deal and not beyond. The dollars-per-WAR and projections generate a one-year total, so that total simply gets multiplied by the number of years left on a guys contract to estimate a total WAR projection for the player.

5) Injury Risk. They aren't very specific about how they mathamatically account for injuries in their formula, but lucky for us HBD has a health rating. I have added in an "injury multiplier" that is directly tied to the player's health rating. The total WAR projection from the years of controlled would be multiplied by this number.

6) Roster Risk. In their words "players who are out of options carry what we call roster risk, which is a negative adjustment to their field value. We apply a discount for players with that status. (Note that this is only true of players who are marginal – typically somewhere just above replacement value; stars or above-average regulars don’t have this risk.)" For the purposes of this exercise, I am going to apply this penalty to players who project to have single season WAR totals between 0 and 2 overall.

After those totals have been calculated, to find the "surplus value" you simply subtract the total amount of money the player is owed over the course of the contract from the total value that the formula produces. For minor leaguers, it's a somewhat simpler formula in that the years of control are eliminated (since there's no guarantee they'll make the majors.) Here's a look at the deal that I analyzed before using this new method:

We are roughly a quarter of the way through the regular season here in Plumpy, and since there are a number of teams that have potential MWR violations this season I figured this would be a good time to check in on them. I have borrowed pajammies' list of teams on the hot seat from the Private World Rules page, so if you see a team that should be highlighted and that I somehow missed please let me know! Without further ado, your S49 Quarter Mark Heat Check:

In both our sister world of Steinbrenner and my original world of FYC, I have brought up a method of evaluating trades that is impartial and essentially 100% fact-based. It has come in useful for both situations like the one we currently find ourselves in here, where there is some debate as to whether or not a trade is "fair" and also for fun blog-based activities.

The method is based mainly on draft position and is derived from Pro Football Focus's Draft Value Chart which assigns a certain number of "draft points" to specific draft slots. However, since that chart was developed for football there are a couple of adjustments that need to be made for baseball (and Hardball Dynasty in particular): International Free Agents, Diamonds In The Rough and Cash in trades. Also, for the purposes of evaluating trades on the basis of "fairness" I have come to the conclusion that anything more than a 10 point difference of value between the two sides is a deal that should be questioned if not outright vetoed.

With all that in mind, here is how this method could be applied to the trade currently up for debate on the World Chat:

****IT HAS BEEN POINTED OUT THAT THE FOCUS SHOULD BE ON THE QUALITY OF THE PLAYER REGARDLESS OF THEIR DRAFT POSITION...TO THAT END, I RE-DID THE EVALUATION BASED ON PROJECTED WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT***
I often evaluate players based on a formula that gives me projected WAR totals for a player based on their ratings. Given the observation above, I figured I'd run the players involved through that spreadsheet to see how the two sides of the deal stack up based on the "major league quality" involved. Here's what I came up with:

To Louisville: Jared File, -2.18 WAR ; Lance Williams, 0.24 WAR = -1.94 WAR value receivedTo Toronto: Pascual Arias, -3.41 WAR, $5M (~1.67 WAR) = -1.74 WAR value received
Again, seems like a pretty fair deal...but I can also see the other side since File is a serviceable defensive catcher at the ML level.

There has been some lively discussion on the World Chat regarding the Hall of Fame debate, specifically who the five most deserving candidates are. The consensus seems to be that there are more than five guys who can make a compelling HOF case, and my calculations seem to back that opinion up...but the reality is that we can only elect five at a time, so I have used the Hall of Fame Standards created by Bill James to sort the candidates into several categories. Here are the results, and if you’re curious about the process that I used, feel free to TC/Sitemail me (or look back at previous posts!):

“Better Than Babe”

None

No Doubt, First Ballot Hall of Famers

Myron Byrnes, 72.90 points

Enos Leonard, 70.20 points

Tiny Garcia, 63.00 points

Eventual Hall of Famers

Pablo Macias, 63.90 points

Desi Pena, 56.90 points

Jeremi Rivera, 56.10 points

Pinky Curtis, 53.50 points

Stephen Collins, 53.10 points

Giomar Estrada, 52.60 points

Nigel Yount, 52.20 points

Shannon Lemon, 52.10 points

Don Webster, 50.90 points

Don Wang, 50.50 points

Julius Moreno, 49.80 points

Monte Turner, 49.30 points

Rob Russell, 49.40 points

Fritz Walsh, 48.80 points

Roscoe Rooney, 48.70 points

Eric Surhoff, 48.40 points

Alex Weeks, 48.10 points

Guy Gorzellany, 47.80 points

Midre Tarasco, 45.60 points

Lyle Hines, 42.50 points

Ringo Oliver, 25.80 points (outscored only RP in HOF)

David Campos, 23.30 points (outscored only RP in HOF)

Longshot HOF Candidates

Rey Maxwell, 43.50 points

Larry Montgomery, 43.50 points

Jair Arredondo, 42.90 points

Mariano Infante, 41.20 points

Rod DeJean, 40.20 points

Tripp Uribe, 39.80 points

Otto Dillon, 34.20 points

Neil Koplove, 33.80 points

Sandy Mieske, 32.60 points

Ugueth Padilla, 30.00 points

Kent Parrish, 29.60 points

Howie Zimmerman, 28.20 points

Eric Adams, 26.10 points

Fred Sparks, 20.90 points

Eugene Hynes, 20.70 points

Harold Aspromonte, 20.20 points

There does seem to be a movement afoot to elect Webster, and as a newer owner I don’t feel qualified to dispute that...as a result, I will be voting for the following five candidates: