Even as things start to look up for the U.S. job market, the long-term unemployed are largely missing out on the recovery.

A new analysis shows job seekers who can't find work within 14 weeks are more likely to drop out of the labor market than land a job. In fact, the longer unemployment lasts, the slimmer chances get of being hired the next month.

Josh Lehner, the Oregon state economist who crunched the federal data, says prospects have improved for all job seekers over the past year. But for many, the outlook remains grim.

Over the past 12 months, just 5 percent of people who had been out of work for longer than a year found new jobs. Nearly 25 percent stopped looking for work altogether.

Lehner said the charts show long-term joblessness is still a major issue facing the economy. In Oregon, it affects one out of three unemployed today.

"You've got all these job applicants," Lehner said. "You basically create a hierarchy" of potential employees from which businesses can choose. The longer-term unemployed tend to drop down that list.

The findings quantify what many describe facing every day, including hundreds of unemployed workers who have shared their experiences with The Oregonian in recent weeks.

The longer unemployment lasts, the higher the odds.

Lehner's analysis arrives amid a Congressional push to extend federal long-term unemployment aid. State-funded benefits often run out after six months. The federal program, which began in 2008, covered extra weeks of benefits. But that program expired Dec. 28. In the months since, lawmakers have disagreed on whether the benefits are still necessary amid an improving economy.

Job seeker resources

2-1-1

A help line that operates in many states and connects people to support available in their community, such as rental and utility assistance. Dial 2-1-1, or go to 211.org, to find out more information.

Life Line

A nationwide free and confidential hotline staffed by trained counselors, who are there to talk about the things you're going through. They can also help point you to local resources. Dial 1-800-273 TALK (8255), or chat online.

Please share the resources that you have found helpful in the comments section.

The U.S. Senate voted last week to resume the longer-term payments through May. But top-ranking members of the House of Representatives have said they don't support the current bill. Both chambers have since left for a two-week break, leaving the extension hanging in the balance.

The outcome affects more than 2 million job seekers nationwide, including roughly 30,000 in Oregon.

Regardless of what happens, the new figures show most will likely keep looking for work.

Month after month since the recovery began in 2010, roughly one in 10 job seekers who had been out of work for a half year or more were hired on by employers. While many of the rest kept searching, an increasing share are dropping out of the labor market. Most recently, about one in four stopped looking for work, compared to one in five in 2010.

Lehner said employers can largely afford to hire the workers they want. That dynamic is starting to shift as hiring accelerates nationwide. In fact, the rate of short-term unemployment in Oregon mirrors what it was before the recession. Lehner said that's an early sign that the job market is tightening. "So we've crossed the first major hurdle," he said.

Analysts, including Lehner, expect to see wage gains next. That would show employers are shelling out more cash to keep and hire top employees. Eventually, they may have to hire workers further down their lists.

"Once we reach that point, then employers will start reaching out to the long-term unemployed," Lehner said. "We're just in that middle stage."