Pac-10 ratings: USC’s alive (and well) in the Rose Bowl race

***Warning to anyone who’s not fond of the Trojans: The following information just might make you stand up and scream: “Noooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

USC is struggling like it has not struggled since 2001 … a lengthy injury list … a vulnerable defense … a sputtering attack … and yet the Trojans are not only in the Rose Bowl hunt, they’re in pretty good shape.

Best I can tell, there are two fairly realistic paths for the two-loss Trojans to win their eighth consecutive league title:

Scenario I:

1. The Trojans beat Stanford, UCLA and Arizona (all at home)
2. Oregon loses at Arizona and to Oregon State.

The Trojans would be 7-2 with wins over either of the teams (Arizona and Oregon State) that could also finish with two losses, giving them the tiebreaker advantage.

That would create a three-team tie between USC, Oregon and Arizona. Because each would be 1-1 against the others, the champion would be determined by record against the fourth-place teams: Stanford and OSU. The Ducks (1-1) would be eliminated, creating a two-team tie with USC and Arizona … USC wins the league based on the head-to-head.

I’m sure there are other ways it can happen, but the key to the equation for USC is to wind up in a tiebreaker situation with Oregon State and/or Arizona, because the head-to-head wins would be the difference.

Now that I’ve managed to depress all non-USC fans, onto the ratings …

Not an easy week, not easy at all. I faced the question that often pops up at this time of year: How do you weigh a head-to-head result, or a single win/loss, against the sweep of the season?

1. Oregon (7-2/5-1)Last week: 1Result: Lost at Stanford 51-42Next up: vs. Arizona StateComment: The Ducks’ cushion was so great they still belong on top even after Saturday’s result. And it’s not like they lost at home to WSU.

2. Arizona (6-2/4-1)Last week: 2Result: Beat Washington State 48-7Next up: at CalComment: Would have moved the Cats up had they beaten anyone but WSU. (The week before that, they had a bye, and the week before that, they beat UCLA — so it’s been nearly a month since they faced a winning team. Tough to ascend to the top with that schedule … In the same span, Oregon has demolished Washington on the road and USC at home and lost at Stanford: No comparison in the quality of competition.)

3. Oregon State (6-3/4-2)Last week: 4Result: Beat Cal 31-14Next up: vs. WashingtonComment: Rose Bowl path is pretty well blocked by Arizona. OSU needs the Cats to lose twice, and USC to lose once, and they need to run the table.

4. USC (7-2/4-2)Last week: 3Result: Beat ASU 14-9Next up: vs. StanfordComment: I thought about dropping the Trojans to No. 5 based on the loss in Eugene and the narrow win at ASU. Not sure they’ve been below No. 3 in the history of the College Hotline.

5. Stanford (6-3/5-2)Last week: 5Result: Beat Oregon 51-42Next up: at USCComment: Rose Bowl path is pretty well blocked by Oregon State and Arizona. Paths to the Rose Bowl not worth detailing unless the Cardinal wins this week (which it very well could).

6. Cal (6-3/3-3)Last week: 5Result: Lost to Oregon State 31-14Next up: vs. ArizonaComment: Bad as they looked, I wasn’t ready to rate the Bears below any team with a losing conference and overall records.

7. UCLA (4-5/1-5)Last week: 9Result: Beat Washington 24-23Next up: at Washington StateComment: With a win this week, the postseason depends on beating ASU (and if not the Devils, then the Trojans).

8. Washington (3-6/2-4)Last week: 7Result: Lost at UCLA 24-23Next up: at Oregon StateComment: A Husky loss in Corvallis would benefit Cal, because UW would have nothing tangible to play for in the season finale.

9. Arizona State (4-5/2-4)Last week: 8Result: Lost to USC 14-9Next up: at OregonComment: Arizona’s success has to be adding to mounting heat on Erickson.

10. Vacant

11. Washington State (1-8/0-6)Last week: 10Result: Lost at Arizona 48-7Next up: vs. UCLAComment: Awful performance in Tucson, but the Cougs’ best chance for a league victory arrives in Pullman sometime Friday afternoon.

Jon Wilner

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I despise stanfurd, I can’t stand the fact that they have been winning. That said, how in the world do you rank Oregon 1 and stanfurd 5????? I think your rankings were set up to generate posts, much like some of your AP rankings.

Duckfan

Does it make any sense that the tie break in scenario two is who lost to the BETTER team of the three tied teams? Shouldn’t it eliminate the team that lost to the WORSE team? Oregon would get penalized for losing to a BETTER Stanford team, and USC and Arizona rewarded for a loss to near-bottom Washington. Dumb dumb dumb. Even if I weren’t a Duck fan, this would be dumb.

DJ

GBBS,

Take a look at the response I posted on the Must Read 1 post. Respond if you fell so inclined.

DJ

FarmBeliever

Reading this blog has been a real eye opener. I’d always assumed the rivalry was a goodnatured, brotherly type affair. “Despise”? Of course, I’m also surprised to see some of the Stanford folks here who want to see Cal lose so badly. I still contend that I’d be happy to see Cal win every game they play.

That being said, of course Oregon is still #1. They’ve only lost to one team in the conference. They’ve won convincingly in every other game they played. Maybe you could argue that Arizona is up there with them, but they’ve lost one as well. And their loss was to a bottom of the half of the conference team, so it should held against them more. As for Stanford’s position, we still haven’t had a meaningful road win this year. Until we do that, we can’t leapfrog OSU or Notre Dame.

This ranking looks about right to me.

mk92

@Duckfan — once you go beyond head-to-head, there’s no great tiebreaker. I like going with who has the better record against the top teams because it shows what a team can do when it plays against level teams, which is generally who you face in bowl games (i.e., what the tiebreaker is relevant to).

GBBS

DJ –

I am happy to respond, but which post? I think universities are paying too much for the sports programs. I have no problem of a coach getting what he can get, but the universities need to prioritize what is important and need to reel in their spending.

Sports should enhance the college experience not dominate it. In addition, looking at some of the students at the games, they could benefit by playing a sport, not just watching them.

MmmKoolAid

Wilner ranks Stanford “low” because he knows the Cardinal have only won 5 of the last 31 road games against winning teams (and are 0-3 this year)

The win vs Ore (while impressive) must be takend with a grain of salt for 2 reasons:

-Ore was in a huge letdown spot
-Stan getting them at home

Lets just say that its extremely difficult to make heads or tails of the top 5-6 teams – they are all solid! Pac10 baby!

MikeD

oregon
ariz
stanford
osu
usc
cal
wash
ucla
asu
wsu

a mish mash of prediction and record

oregon111

ducks have 1 bad game on defense and the whole world is ready to write them off

oregon lost 4 defensive tackles that they signed who never made it to camp + numerous secondary injuries + banged up linebackers

oregon will make some defensive adjustments so they can patch together the rest of the season

but know this: nobody, but nobody can stop the oregon offense

oregon wins out and the rest is filler

Kerr

Now Oregon fans are making excuses (injuries, non-enrollment, etc.) AFTER they lose? What, are only Duck fans are entitled to make excuses after a loss?

Casper

@9 — why can’t a fan just accept that their team lost without excuses?

We know Oregon is a good team, but they match-up poorly to some (see Boise and Stanford) and sometimes they just get out-coached or out-played.

take the loss like a duck

Zoo

Odd, I don’t remember Oregon fans saying their defense was vulnerable before the game…

Not that I wouldn’t rank them first, I think I agree with these until this weekend (maybe $C could be below Stanford, that game against ASU was pretty pathetic).

StanTheMan

Can’t rank U$C below Stanford until Saturday night after the Cardinal does it again. As great as they are at home, Stanford hasn’t won a road game other than lowly WSU.

But hey 1-4 on the road and 7-0 at home is a great season! 2-3 & 7-0 is even better!

Jacob Wang

Washington also has its rivalry game v. WSU in the Apple Cup remaining on its schedule before playing Cal on Dec 5th.

Also, did I see Jon taking a swipe at UCLA by saying that WSU’s best chance for a win arrives in Pullman on Friday?

Papa John

It’s pretty easy to foresee UA losing at least two more games, given that they play at Cal, ASU and USC and have UO at home.

I can’t imagine UO losing more than one of its final three regular season games.

So USC, even if it runs the table, is going to the Holiday Bowl (I think).

Telrod

Stanford is by far the most fun Pac-10 team to watch. Their game with Arizona was the best game I’ve seen in ages. They’re improving, with less mistakes and a defense that stopped Oregon, and Gerhart and Luck belong in the Rose Bowl. If “deserving” counts for anything I think they deserve to go to the Rose Bowl.

WSUSpartan

WSU 11th? WTF? They should be 120th out of 10 teams.

Not a good year, and looking at how Idaho is doing under former Coug Robb Akey is more than frustrating. When do the Akey to Pullman rumors start? Next year after a 1-5 WSU start while Idaho goes 4-2?

Jacob Wang

If either of the scenarios Jon describes plays out, who would represent the Pac-10 in the Emerald Bowl, respectively?

leon0112

This weekend will be interesting. The USC/Stanford and Cal/Arizona games will have big influences on the standings. Another USC loss will eliminate the Trojans from conference title contention.