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Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change Since the IPCC-TAR, progress in understanding the spatial and temporal changes in climate has been gained through: improvements and extensions of numerous datasets and data analyses; improvements and extensions of numerous datasets and data analyses; broader geographical coverage; broader geographical coverage; better understanding of uncertainties; and better understanding of uncertainties; and Measurement & observation of a wider range of variables. Measurement & observation of a wider range of variables.

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Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

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Changes in Precipitation & Increased Drought Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour content Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

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Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), 1900 to 2002 (top) The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI. Drought is increasing most places

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Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR.

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Projected warming in 21st century expected to be: ►greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes ►least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean Projections of Future Changes in Climate

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Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

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Snow cover is projected to contract Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent Likely that future tropical cyclones more intense, less confidence in decrease of total number Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns Projections for Future Changes in Climate

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Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized. Temperatures in excess of 1.9 to 4.6°C warmer than pre-industrial sustained for millennia…eventual melt of the Greenland ice sheet. Would raise sea level by 7 m. Comparable to 125,000 years ago. Projections for Future Changes in Climate

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Observed impacts of climate change on the natural and human environment* Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans indicates that natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature (high confidence) Hydrologic systems around the world are being affected: “increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier-and snow-fed rivers (High confidence) Recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems: “earlier timing of spring events, leaf-unfolding, bird migration, and egg-laying”and “poleward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species” (Very high confidence ) Of more than 29,000 observational data series from 75 studies, that show significant change, more than 89% are significant with the direction of change consistent with warming.

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What Can We Expect In Tropical Small Islands? Water Resources Water resources in small islands especially vulnerable to changes in rainfall distribution. Low rainfall typically leads to (a) reduction in the amount of water that can be harvested (b) reduction in river flow, and (c) a slower rate of recharge of the freshwater lens, which can result in prolonged drought. Recent modeling of the current and future water resource availability on several small islands in the Caribbean, using a macro-scale hydrological model (Arnell, 2004) found that many of these islands would be exposed to severe water stress. Since most of the islands are dependent upon surface water catchments for water supply, it is highly likely that demand would not be met during low rainfall periods. Recognising the vulnerable nature of water supplies, several countries (e.g. The Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados) have begun to invest in the implementation of adaptation strategies, including desalination and rainwater harvesting, to offset current and projected water shortages.

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Impact of Sea-Level Rise Sea-level rise will exacerbate inundation, erosion and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that are predominantly situated along the coast. Sea-level rise will also negatively impact coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangrove forests, and commercial and artisinal fisheries based on those systems. These adverse effects are likely to manifest themselves through reduced abundance, loss of diversity and possibly shifts in distribution as a result of migration. Since fisheries contribute significantly to GDP in many island states, the socio-economic implications of the impact of climate change on fisheries will be important.

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Agriculture and Food Security Agriculture impacted by extended periods of drought and reduced soil quality through increasing soil salinization especially near coastal areas. The World Bank (2000, 2002) found that a country such as Fiji could experience damages of 23 million to 52 million USD per year by 2050, (equivalent to 2-3 percent of Fiji’s GDP in 2002). Low islands such as Kiribati could face average annual damages of more than 8 million to 16 million USD a year (equivalent to 17-18 percent of Kiribati’s GDP in 2002), as a result of climate change. The AR4 also notes that reduced crop productivity in traditional markets from which small islands obtain their food, will drive prices up → food importation costs will inevitably rise in response to market forces. Extreme events (e.g. hurricanes, floods, droughts) can also cause severe damage to food and commercial crops. The case of Grenada after hurricane Ivan is an excellent example. Nutmeg, Grenada’s most important agricultural crop, was devastated in a mere few hours by the hurricane. Since the plant does not reach commercial production status under 7-8 years, Grenada will earn no foreign exchange from this source for almost a decade.

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Infrastructure and Housing In the Caribbean, more than half of the population lives within 1.5 km of the shoreline. In locations such as the north coast of Jamaica and the west and south coasts of Barbados, continuous corridors of development occupy practically all of the prime coastal lands. Other facilities such as fishing villages, government offices, hospitals and critical utilities are frequently located close to the shore. Changes in sea level, and the characteristics of storm events, are likely to have serious consequences for these settlements and infrastructure. Almost without exception, international airports are sited on or within a few km. of the coast. Similarly, the main road arteries often parallel the coast. With projected sea-level rise, much of this infrastructure would be at risk from flooding and physical damage, although the degree of risk will obviously vary from country to country. The threat from sea-level rise to infrastructure is amplified with the passage of tropical cyclones (hurricanes). It has been shown for instance that the sea ports at Suva, Fiji, and Apia, Samoa, would experience overtopping, damage to wharves and flooding of the hinterland with a 0.5 m rise in sea level combined with waves from the 1: 50 year cyclone. In the Caribbean, damage to coastal infrastructure from storm surge alone is often significant. In November 1999, surge damage in St. Lucia associated with Hurricane Lenny exceeded US$ 6.0 million, although the storm was many kilometres offshore.

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Human Health Climate change is also likely to result in an increase in the incidence of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria. The various mosquitoes that transmit these diseases, as well as other environmental factors in disease transmission, are clearly influenced by climate. In the Caribbean, a retrospective review of dengue fever cases (1980-2002) was carried out in relation to ENSO events (Rawlins et al., 2005). This showed there were greater occurrences of dengue fever in the warmer drier period of the first and second years of El Niño events. Normally, however, it is in the wet season that Caribbean countries are at greatest risk to dengue fever transmission, suggesting that vector mitigation programs should be targeted at this time of year to reduce mosquito production and dengue fever transmission (Rawlins et al., 2005). Shortages of fresh water and poor water quality during periods of drought, as well as contamination of fresh water supplies during floods and storms appear to lead to an increased risk of disease including cholera, diarrhoea, and dengue fever. Ciguatera fish poisoning is also common in marine waters, especially reefal waters. Although multiple factors contribute to outbreaks of ciguatera poisoning, including pollution, and other forms of reef degradation, warmer sea surface temperatures during El Niño events have also been linked to ciguatera outbreaks.

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Tourism Tourism is a major economic sector in many islands, and the effects of climate change will be both direct and indirect. Sea-level rise and increased ocean temperature are projected to accelerate beach erosion, cause degradation of coral reefs including bleaching, and degrade the overall asset value of the coast. Such impacts will in turn reduce the attractiveness of these destinations for coastal tourism. Warmer climates in the higher latitude, especially in winter, may also reduce the number of people who want to visit small islands in tropical and subtropical regions. Climate change will also affect vital environmental components of holiday destinations, which could have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. The importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, two Caribbean islands with markedly different tourism markets and infrastructure, and possible changes resulting from climate change (coral bleaching and beach erosion respectively) have been investigated by Uyarra et al., (2005). They concluded that such changes would have significant impacts on destination selection by visitors, and that island- specific strategies, such as focussing resources on the protection of key tourist assets, may provide a means of reducing the environmental impacts and economic costs of climate change.

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Adaptation Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis. Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are currently lacking Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies