It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?

Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.

If it's always such a pain in the ass, you should maybe just ignore the daily tracking poll. It's not like you need it with all the polls we get each week, and it also seems to be pretty off compared to other pollsters.

It's really a mess in their daily rolling poll, because they don't give the daily sample and they change the sample each night !!!And for their other polls , they don't say if it's different or not from their daily one and you're forced to entail it from their foggy comments...They seemed the most reliable this cycle, but frankly, they are essentially here to make big money... and they don't care about political geeks...

Actually they are polling all the day long, and use the data from day-1 at noon to day-3 at noon so it's a little messy because at the beginning they were using all the day-1, all the day-2 and all the day-3 (hope it's crystal clear, but I'm not sure). But you can infer the daily sample by substracting the daily sample to the one of the day before, right?Concerning the other online poll they released earlier today, it was done during only two days. They used the daily tracking sample (about 660 people), and added about 700 interviews in order to have a large sample.

Well, clearly they are good at trying new things (even if I'm a bit conservative - on this aspect - and prefer telephone polls than online survey) but completely messy. I definitely prefer less vocal but more reliable pollsters like TNS Sofres and IPSOS.

Unfortunately no, because, one day it's day D-3 plus day D-2 plus day D-1 plus day D.The next one, it's the same plus day D+1. and then it's only D-1, D, D+1 and D+2. And then, only 3 days, etc.It's completely erratic and you can't infer some daily samples because the total samples are never calculated with the same number of daily samples in them.

Non non non, my explanation above is false actually, but it's so confusing than I hope you will excuse me : they use the data from day-1 at noon, day-2, day-3 and day-4 before noon, which makes exactly three days. They use this method every day, even if sometimes they themselves make mistakes in their reports, saying the filed only last 3 days... But actually I'm not sure if you can find the daily samples since they don't use full days...

But one day the sample is 866, the next one 945 and the one after that 1176. And then back to 960 or 877...And as they don't publish it on Saturdays and Sundays...It's really impossible to infer daily samples.

I hate them: it's like promising to give you chocolate and then be obliged to only look at it through a window

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

Coverage of those elections here will be pretty good though, when it comes to it. If that's any consolation.

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"The Norwegians hate the Swedish and the Swedes they hate the FinnsThe Finns they hate the Russians and the Russians hate the YidsSpicks and Wops and Greasers; Kikes and Spades and Ginny HensHatred's blowin in the wind; 10 million outcasts"

Does nobody actually poll in respect of elections to the National Assemby?

Nope. As sad as this sounds, nobody cares about Legislative elections because whoever wins the prez elections has its party winning legislative elections too. Le Monde published a nice analysis a couple months ago about the political trends of France and forecasting possible results of the 2012 legislatives, but they still didn't bother enough to ask for a poll...

It was a different story when the presidential term was seven years and there would always be "mid term" legislative election outside of the presidential election cycle in France. Now the legislative election to Just be an exclamation point after the presidential election.

Honestly, I don't see how this could help Sarko. It's too late for him to make people buy into his new "sound, responsible and experienced" persona. And it's not like Merkel is much loved around here. Maybe mine is wishful thinking, though...

There's a fuss every year about the fascist candidate not making the ballot. But they always do.

Logged

"The Norwegians hate the Swedish and the Swedes they hate the FinnsThe Finns they hate the Russians and the Russians hate the YidsSpicks and Wops and Greasers; Kikes and Spades and Ginny HensHatred's blowin in the wind; 10 million outcasts"