Houston ISD’s 10 longest-struggling schools likely would not trigger major state sanctions this year if they all receive academic accountability waivers because of Hurricane Harvey, Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath said Wednesday.

However, the district still would face punishment — either campus closures or a state takeover of the district’s locally elected school board — if Morath opts against accountability waivers for the schools and a single one fails to meet state academic standards.

The commissioner’s comments, made during a wide-ranging interview with the Houston Chronicle editorial board, answered several questions about the potential penalties facing Texas’ largest district, which must boost performance at its campuses to avoid unprecedented state intervention.

The threat of sanctions has roiled some HISD trustees and community members, culminating with a raucous school board meeting last month that resulted in two arrests and dozens of people temporarily forced to leave the building.

Under a law passed in 2015 with broad bipartisan support, Morath must shut down campuses or replace HISD's school board if any one of its schools fails to meet state academic standards for five consecutive years. Ten HISD schools serving nearly 7,000 students risk triggering the law, and HISD leaders have conceded it is unlikely all 10 will meet state standards this year.

As a result, HISD likely will need Morath to issue Harvey-related accountability waivers to some or all of the 10 campuses to stave off sanctions. A decision on Harvey waivers is expected in June. All 10 of the schools were closed for 10 or 11 days following Harvey, with none sustaining catastrophic damage.

Morath repeatedly cautioned that no final decisions have been made about Harvey-related waivers or potential sanctions. However, if any of the 10 schools trigger the state law this year, Morath said he does not believe he has the legal authority to give HISD a break, as some Houston-area leaders have requested.

Morath said Texas Education Agency officials continue to collect and analyze data that will help decide which schools will receive Harvey-related accountability waivers. He expects the agency will analyze several campus-level factors — including days of instruction missed, students displaced and teachers left homeless — as they set criteria for issuing waivers. Some of those data points have been collected on a weekly basis, Morath said.

“Our team is trying to figure out whether or not the rules should be entirely consistent with (Hurricane) Ike or slightly more generous,” Morath said. “I think I’m currently leaning toward a slightly more generous framework than the prior systems, where it’s not just dates closed, but also student and staff displacement as a factor.”

Following Hurricane Ike in 2008, any school or district closed for at least 10 instructional days due to the storm received a “not rated” grade, unless its rating improved from the previous year.

Many Houston-area leaders, including interim HISD Superintendent Grenita Lathan, HISD trustees and Mayor Sylvester Turner, have urged Morath to issue districtwide accountability waivers. They have been joined by districts up and down the Gulf Coast, from windswept Port Aransas to heavily flooded Beaumont. Gov. Greg Abbott also urged the commissioner last December to “consider ways to help relieve some of the pressures on students in areas most affected by Hurricane Harvey.”

If some of HISD’s 10 longest-struggling schools do not receive waivers and fall short of state academic standards, Morath will face a monumental decision: close campuses that serve predominately black and Hispanic students in high-poverty neighborhoods, or wrest control of HISD’s 284 schools from its nine-person board of trustees. The 10 schools in question are Blackshear, Dogan, Highland Heights, Mading and Wesley elementary schools; Henry Middle School; Woodson PK-8; and Kashmere, Wheatley and Worthing high schools.

Asked about a potential decision to close HISD schools, Morath sounded somewhat reluctant to go down that path.

“I’m not sure closure is, in fact, the best option in Houston,” Morath said Wednesday. “But we’re still evaluating that, and we’ve got to see what happens in August.”

Asked about the his assessment of HISD’s school board, which has been criticized for less-than-optimal operation in years past, Morath said “one sure-fire way of evaluating is based on results.”

On the academic trajectory at HISD’s 10 long-struggling schools, Morath said: “It’s hard for me to comment from afar on that. Districts themselves have access to inner performance information, so I’m not sure I have a precise answer to it. There’s cases where campuses are getting better and places where campuses are getting worse.”

On several occasions, Morath spoke about educational systems and HISD’s need to assign its “best and brightest” staff members to long-struggling schools. He acknowledged the district has implemented changes through its Achieve 180 plan, which dedicated $15 million to improve educator quality and social services at 32 schools last year, but he noted that other school districts have made more drastic staff overhauls at chronically low-performing campuses.

“Achieve 180 began, I think, moving the district in the right direction,” Morath said. “The question is: Was it sufficient for the challenge faced? And I’m not sure it is. We’ll find out this year and we’ll see the results. Either it will have borne fruit, or it wasn’t fully adequate.”

HISD officials did not immediately respond to Morath’s comments Wednesday.

If Morath opts to replace HISD’s school board, he said he expects to appoint “well-qualified people that live in Houston” and “people of character and ability with diverse backgrounds.” A replacement board likely would take over sometime around January 2019 and remain in place until the underlying issues that led to their appointment improved.

Jacob Carpenter joined the Houston Chronicle in June 2017 to cover K-12 education. Prior to arriving in Texas, he spent a year as an investigative reporting fellow for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. He reported for the Naples (Fla.) Daily News from 2011 to 2016, covering criminal courts and long-term investigative projects. A native of suburban Detroit, he graduated from Michigan State University in 2010.