Daley no shoo-in for Ill. governor

Former White House chief of staff Bill Daley’s decision to jump into the Illinois governor’s race gave Democrats their first top-tier candidate against hobbled Gov. Pat Quinn. But the ex-Commerce Secretary and banker is hardly assured of being the Prairie State’s next governor.

Daley poses an immediate threat to Quinn, the unpopular Democratic incumbent who has yet to announce he’s running again. But the biggest unknown is still Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who’s seen as a likely candidate but hasn’t decided.

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Democrats in the state say Daley’s decision to get in now, before Madigan announces her plans, is shrewd: by doing so, he’ll likely help speed up her decision.

“Not unlike nature politics abhors a vacuum,” said Illinois Democratic media consultant Eric Adelstein, who’s not affiliated with any candidate in the race. “And while everyone’s waiting for the attorney general to decide what her plans are … Bill’s move is a smart one because there’s a void right now and he’s jumping into it.”

Daley might also hope that by announcing his own intention to run, he could potentially encourage Madigan to stay out and avoid a three-way primary.

The popular Madigan, though, is seen as the likely frontrunner if she decides to run. She would draw support from women’s groups in Illinois and nationally.

“If Lisa Madigan gets in the race she’ll be the Democratic nominee and the next governor of Illinois,” said one Democrat. “It strikes me that Daley was frustrated in her lack of movement: he can look at numbers, he must know that if it’s Daley, Madigan and Quinn in a primary, he has no chance of winning.”

Quinn’s dismal approval ratings have long made him a top target for a Democratic challenger. A Public Policy Polling survey in November found Quinn with just a 25 percent approval rating, compared with 64 percent who disapprove. In a hypothetical matchup with Madigan, Quinn trailed by 44 points, 64 percent to 20 percent. He trailed Daley too, but by just 3 points.

“You have a very interesting dynamic here in that you have an incumbent governor who has a lot of problems within his own party: political problems, PR problems and problems of governance,” said Illinois-based pollster Jason McGrath. “And all those things make this an appealing option for other top-tier candidates. But at the same time, it’s always difficult to unseat an incumbent governor in the primary.”

Daley boasts experience on the national stage and a famous name within Illinois: His father and brother both served as mayor of Chicago for more than 20 years. His family ties give him a strong network within the state already, and his affiliation with the Obama White House is already bringing him campaign help from Obama’s campaign world.

Daley has hired AKPD, David Axelrod’s firm, to do his media; The Strategy Group, Daley’s direct mail firm, also worked for Obama. Roz Skozen, Daley’s finance consultant, was Obama’s Midwest finance director in 2012, and Daley’s digital consultants are both Obama alums as well.

“Quite frankly, Bill Daley wouldn’t be getting into this race if he didn’t think he would be able to be competitive financially,” McGrath said. “He’s got the experience and the network to raise money.”

Still, Adelstein said, it’s unclear how much the Daley name will help him with voters outside the Chicago area.

“The question has always been: How well will the Daley name play outside of Chicago?” he said. “And in this environment where there’s a sense of, do we need change, is that going to be a name that is a throwback to the past?”

If the race comes down to a two-man contest between Quinn and Daley, Daley’s chances would look a lot better. Observers say the race would be highly competitive. Quinn, assuming he runs again, would have the support of the Democratic Governors Association.

“It’s a close race,” Adelstein said. “People should never underestimate an incumbent governor who’s always been an underdog in everything he’s done.”