In the Q1 2016 Solar Executive Briefing, GTM Research analysts weigh in on global demand, the leading U.S. residential solar financiers, module pricing, and the global module-level power electronics market. The full deck, delivered to subscribing clients this week, is 65 slides of data and analysis. We've provided a few highlights in the presentation below.

GTM Research Quarterly Solar Briefing

Q1 2016

Top 5 Major Markets PV Demand 2015-2020E

The U.S. will overtake Japan as the no. 2 market in 2016.

The UK will cease to be a major market in 2017

India will become the 3rd largest market in 2018

Quarterly U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment: 2010-Q4 2015

In 2015, 7,620 MWdc of PV was installed across the United States

Residential PV: 2,099 MWdc

Up 66% over 2014

Non-Residential PV: 1,011 MWdc

Down 4% from 2014

Utility PV: 4,150 MWdc

First year in which utility PV installed over 4 GWdc

2015 Residential PV Installations: Top 10 State Markets

State Markets With Strong Upside Potential

California:

The CPUC’s NEM 2.0 decision leaves retail-rate NEM compensation for exported excess generation intact with minor charges added and mandatory TOU rate schedulesfor all NEM 2.0 systems. Despite these changes, California remains well positioned to be one of the top 5 states for rooftop solar economics between now and 2020.

New York :

The NYPSC has lifted the aggregate NEM caps until NEM rules are finished being reviewed in a “value of DER” process initiated by REV. While long term growth will be contingent on the final outcome of the proceeding, upside potential exists in the near term with the first wave of installations coming online outside of the MW Block program.

Five Companies Control More than Two-Thirds of the U.S. Residential Market

According to SolarCity’s 2016 guidance, the company appears to be slowing down. The companies market share will likely not exceed the current market share of 35%.

Although Vivint ended the year at number two, Sunrun deployed more capacity than Vivint in Q4 (68 MW vs 59 MW). Based on the company’s guidance, Sunrun will maintain about a 10% market share in 2016. However, because Sunrun is projecting a 100% growth rate for its direct install business, its installer market share will likely grow from its current 3%