Just one
year after winning the AFC North and becoming Super Bowl champions, the
Baltimore Ravens are once again co-favorites to win the AFC North at most NFL
odds shops. This season the Ravens are +190 in the AFC North divisional future
odds, so is there enough value to be able to bet on the Ravens to repeat as
divisional champs?

When I
say no one saw them coming last season, I'm just saying they didn't do anything
spectacular in the regular-season nor in their ATS records to warrant much
attention in a future odds bet. They lost four of their last five games SU.
Even after winning the Super Bowl and winning all those tough games on the
road, the Ravens still ended up on the season and postseason 10–9–1 against the
spread. Baltimore was 5-4-1 ATS on the road including the playoffs, and they
were only 2-3-1 ATS against their own division. Even though they were 4-2 SU
against their division, it doesn’t bode well now that they are the champs and
everyone will be coming for their heads.

The odds
for the Ravens are courtesy of LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, and right now they
also have the Steelers and the Bengals priced exactly the same to win the AFC
North. I have to conclude the Ravens don't hold a lot of value the season,
whether we like it or not.

Interestingly
enough, Baltimore did hold a little bit of value against the spread in one area
last season. They were 8–6 ATS in non-divisional games last season including
the playoffs. This season their non-divisional games in the first half of their
schedule are not very kind. A trip to Denver opens the season, they play
Houston in Week 3, they go to Miami in Week 5 and then go back home the next
week to welcome in the Packers. All four of these games happen before they play
the Steelers for the first time, which happens to be in Pittsburgh the week
after they play the Packers. With those four difficult non-divisional games as
four their first seven games, would you bet the Ravens at less than 2 to 1 to
win the division?

The
answer is no. The Ravens have lost too much on their defense, and even though
their offense will likely still be rather good, I don't think their defense has
enough depth to do some of the things they did in their 2012 postseason run. If
losing all their guys wasn't enough, their tough schedule and division are the
last two straws. I cannot trust Baltimore this season. I’ll stop just short of
saying they'll be a good fade considering they went just above .500 against the
spread last season, but it would surprise me greatly if they somehow were more
than mildly profitable for our NFL Picks again in 2013.