Mission/Re-Entry Coverage has switched to the Re-Entry Blog for live Updates

New Gound-Based Images of Phobos-Grunt

December 29, 2011

_No good
news are coming from the Russian Phobos-Grunt Mission since our last Mission
Update earlier in December. The Spacecraft is still silent. No communications
have been established by Russian Ground Stations that were sending
commands to the spacecraft. ESA has not made any further communication attempts via its assets. Hope to save the mission does not exist anymore as
Russian Officials have shifted their attention to the Re-Entry of the Vehicle
that is expected in mid-January. Re-Entry predictions have circled around the
January 10 to 15 timeframe pending space-weather. Satellite observers around the
world have been spotting Phobos-Grunt racing across the sky. Signs of tumbling
have not been indicated however it seems that the spacecraft is changing its
orientation in a much slower fashion causing atmospheric drag on the vehicle to increase and decrease regularly which is making it more difficult to predict the exact Re-Entry day. In advance
of Re-Entry, Russia and China have not come forward with additional details on
their respective spacecraft. The Chinese Yinghuo-1 Satellite that was supposed
to hitch a ride to Martian Orbit aboard Phobos-Grunt is the biggest unknown in the game as no
technical details on any components of the Orbiter that might survive the entry
process, were given. Russian Officials have also issued no details on the
Chinese Spacecraft. It is uncertain wether any hazardous materials were used to
construct the small vehicle. Yinghuo was declared lost by Chinese State Media back on November 17. Phobos-Grunt itself contains a small amount of
Cobalt-57 to function as radiation source for one of the on-board spectrometers.
This material is expected to be no threat to the environment even if traces of
it make it to Earth’s surface. Propellants aboard the main Spacecraft are toxic
substances as well. According to official Russian releases, all of it will
explode when hitting the atmosphere so that none of it makes it back to Earth. The
Spacecraft is currently in a 246 by 188-Kilometer Orbit inclined 51.42 Degrees.
Re-Entry is currently predicted for January 14 +/-5 Days as the vehicle loses
approximately 1.5 Kilometers of altitude every day. Predictions will become
more and more refined as Re-Entry approaches, however there will always the
some uncertainty expressed in margins in the decay predictions so that
estimating the exact location of Re-Entry will be impossible. Only a few hours
prior to the event, zones and continents can be excluded. After Re-Entry, more refined
estimates will be available.
More Information and continuing updates on the
Spacecraft’s Re-Entry are available in our Entry Sections. As entry approaches,
update frequency will increase and live updates will be coming via our Twitter
Profile and on the Spaceflight101 website.

Attempts to fire Phobos-Grunt's Engines are stopped

December 19, 2011

_Attempts to
start the Main Propulsion Unit of the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft via direct
commands from the ground have been stopped. ESA has ceased contact attempts
last week and will not continue its efforts unless the Mission’s situation
changes which has not been the case since our last update. During the brief period
of constant sun-exposure, no contact was made with the Spacecraft suggesting
that there is no chance of establishing any type of communication with the
vehicle. Russian Mission Controllers have also stopped sending commands to the
spacecraft that would fire its engines blindly to raise its orbit somehow.
According to Russian Sources, the engine can not be fired because the vehicle’s
orientation is unknown and an ignition could send the spacecraft the wrong
way. Teams will continue attempts to obtain vehicle telemetry should there be
any life left in Phobos-Grunt. These communication attempts via Russian Ground
Stations will continue until the Re-Entry of the Spacecraft, but officials have
already indicated that the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft is lost.

Photo: Lavochkin Association/Roscosmos

_The
Spacecraft is currently in a 198 by
270-Kilometer Orbit inclined 51.4 Degrees. Phobos-Grunt’s decay rate is
showing
normal properties and is responding to solar activity which has reduced
drag
over several days of last week – pushing back re-entry predictions by
about 24
hours. Also, the Vehicle seems to have found a stable orientation as
satellite
trackers did not report any new indications of obvious signs of
tumbling. This
is not necessarily due to the attitude control system making
adjustments. Many previous re-entering spacecraft have shown a
stabilization period because the vehicles achieve an aerodynamically
stable position due to trace
amounts of air particles that are present at these altitude levels.
Official
Russian Entry estimations range from January 6 to 19. Space Surveillance
sources are currently
predicting a January 12 (+/- 5 Days) Re-Entry. You can keep track of
PG’s Orbit
as it appraches Re-Entry via our Entry Central.

A final Spark of Hope for the Phobos Grunt Mission

December 13, 2011

_Over the
past week, Russian Ground Stations continued daily attempts to restore contact
with the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft and try to command its engine to start
boosting it to a higher orbit. All attempts have failed and the spacecraft
continues is steady path that will eventually lead it to a destructive re-entry
should further attempts fail as well.Today, ESA's
Maspalomas Station has also made new attempts to make contact with Phobos-Grunt
after standing down over the weekend and on Monday. After the attempts, PG’s Orbit remained
unchanged, there was no engine burn. The current orbit of the stranded
spacecraft is 283 by 201 Kilometers with a period of 89 Minutes.One last
spark of hope remains however: Over a period starting today at 17:00 UTC and ending tomorrow at 23:00, Phobos-Grunt will have constant sun exposure during all portions of its orbit around Earth. Should the vehicle be in working condition and
sunpointing, the odds to make contact with it are much higher because PG won’t
switch back and forth between safe mode in darkness and operational or
contingency mode in daylight. However, it is unknown wether 1) the spacecraft is
still alive and 2) it is maintaining attitude. Russian Officials have indicated
that Mission Controllers do not know if the vehicle is stable. Satellite
observers have seen fair indications of tumbling earlier in December, but there
are no new sighting updates from more recent observations. Mission Controllers
will try to use this phase of optimized conditions and make contact attempts
via two Ground Stations in Russia and Kazakhstan. It is also expected that ESA
will make further attemtps to send commands to the Spacecraft via Maspalomas
and/or Perth.Still, the odds of getting the spacecraft out of Low Earth Orbit remain very slim at this point in the mission.

Photo: Ralf Vandebergh

_Accoring to Russian Sources, attempts to
communicate with the spacecraft will continue on a daily basis until re-entry. Russian
Officials and personnel of NPO Lavochkin, the Spacecraft Designer, have declared
the mission a failure and do not see any chance of it accomplishing any of its
objectives. Teams concerned with the Entry Process and any tasks associated
with Entry Response have been formed. Currently, the spacecraft is expected to
re-enter on January 10, 2012 +/- 5 Days.

Additional Communication Attempts - so far no Success

December 7, 2011

_Russia has
asked ESA to try and contact Phobos-Grunt again and send commands to the spacecraft that
would prompt the ignition of its engine in order to raise its orbit and buy
more time to avert the impending re-entry of the vehicle.ESA has
agreed to use its Maspalomas Ground Station, Canary Islands, Spain, to send the
commands when the Probe passes overhead. Attempts have been made on Monday,
Tuesday and today and will continue on Thursday and Friday according to ESA’s
agreement. Maspalomas has two possible Communication passes per day.The
Commands that are being transmitted were prepared by NPO Lavochkin, the
Spacecraft Designer, and are emergency commands to initiate the ignition
sequence of the Propulsion Module instantly. Since no telemetry was received from the spacecraft for
several weeks now, attempts to activate the on-board transmitter and start telemetry
transmissions have been stopped. Now, Mission Controllers hope to raise the
Orbit of the spacecraft with this engine burn to get more time to re-gain
control over the spacecraft and avoid re-entry.ESA has
announced that all attempts made this week have not shown any results. Also, no
Orbit alteration was observed today and PG remains on track for re-entry in
about one month. Satellite Observers are still indicating that Phobos-Grunt is
tumbling. The probe is currently in a 295 by 205 km Orbit – circling the Earth
every 89 and a half minutes.
For more information and continuous updates on
Phobos-Grunt’s upcoming re-entry, visit the PG Re-Entry Page via our Entry
Central that is keeping score on any major Objects that are making their way
back to Earth.

ESA's 15-meter dish at the Maspalomas Ground Station

Phobos-Grunt - No hope left?

December 5, 2011

Over the weekend, efforts to contact Phobos-Grunt have continued via Russian Ground Stations, but vehicle communications have not been established. According to Russian Sources, teams are now trying to send commands to ignite the engine into the blind since commands to turn on the vehicle's transmitter were not executed by the silent probe that has been stuck in Low Earth Orbit since being launched.PG is currently in a 299 by 206 Kilometer Orbit showing normal decay rates as it slowly descends towards the Earth's Atmosphere. Meanwhile, Satellite Observers have indicated that Phobos-Grunt is no longer stable and appears to be tumbling. These are usually sure signs of a dead spacecraft that is no longer maintaining its attitude and is not charging its batteries because Sun-Pointing can not be accomplished without stable vehicle orientation. It has been confirmed that PG has lost two items designated 'Object G' which separated between November 27 and 29, and 'Object H' that followed on November 30. Both items drifted away from PG and entered their respective orbits as opposed to explosive separation. Estimates on the size of the Objects range from 0.3 to 0.5 Kilograms. Judging by orbital properties, the debris are rather small in size with a diameter of 10 centimeters. Object G rapidly decayed and re-entered the Atmosphere on November 29. The other item was also showing a fast orbital decay rate and plunged back to Earth on December 2. The exact nature and origin of the components are uncertain. It is also unknown how the objects liberated from the vehicle - wether there was some kind of event causing vibrations or other motion on the vehicle. Space Surveillance shows no other objects related to Phobos-Grunt at this time.Russian Officials have made no comments on the fate of the Mission, however it seems certain that the Phobos-Grunt Mission will be a complete failure without a miraculous development. Re-Entry estimates range from January 6 to 18. Predictions will become more refined as actual atmospheric entry approaches.

Photo: Lavochkin Association

Two Spacecraft related Debris now being tracked

December 2, 2011

All
Attempts to re-contact the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft from the Maspalomas and
Perth Ground Stations have failed tonight and today (UTC). ESA has
announced that the agency is now ending its primary mission support until new
developments would emerge. This decision was made by ESA teams in cooperation with Russian Mission Controllers and Spacecraft Designers.
ESA will be ready to assist - should the current situation change. However,
Russian Officials have not declared the mission a complete failure yet. It is
expected that Russian Ground Stations - especially Baikonur - will still be listening for PG or sent
signals to the spacecraft and try to establish contact. With ESA standing down,
the mission is one major step closer to a full failure.
US Space Surveillance / USSTRATCOM has now
identified two objects related to Phobos-Grunt. Obejct G and H have been
associated with the spacecraft and not its launch vehicle (4 other pieces of
debris have been designated launch vehicle debris). According USSTRATCOM/NORAD
Data, both of these Objects are rapidly decaying. Object G appears to have
re-entered the atmoshere already at this point in time. Its final orbital data
indicated that it was in a 271 by 239 km Orbit. Object H is still in Orbit,
according to tracking data. It is also facing a rapid orbital decay and is currently
in a 224 by 179 km Orbit and headed for a soon re-entry into the atmosphere.
The nature (mass, other properties) of these objects is unknown at this time.
Both objects have appeared in tracking records today and do not seem
to be launch vehicle related.

Engineers struggling to re-contact Phobos Grunt

December 2, 2011

_All
attempts that were made to contact the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft have failed
since contact was established for the last time on November 24, 2011.The
Maspalomas Ground Station (ESA; Canary Islands, Spain) joined the effort, that
now involves two Russian and two ESA Tracking Stations, on December 1. Both,
Maspalomas and Perth, sent commands to the spacecraft to activate its
transmitter and start sending telemetry. Also, commands to make an orbit adjust
burn were sent by the Ground Stations. Nothing was received from the
spacecraft and a vehicle maneuver was also not observed. Russian
Mission Controllers and Spacecraft Designers are still working with ESA personnel at the tracking stations
and ESA has received new commands that will be sent to PG today. Several
communication slots via all Ground Stations are available today. Maspalomas
will be the first and make use of two attempts at 12:40 and 14:13 UTC. The station is now outfitted with all modifications that were implemented at Perth.Orbital
Decay of the Spacecraft has been continuing as expected over the past days. The
vehicle is headed for re-entry in late-January without an orbit raising
maneuver. PG is currently in a 304 by 208 km Orbit.Space
Surveillance has identified an object related to Phobos Grunt. This piece of
debris – designated 2011-065G - is in a 271 by 239km Orbit. It has not
separated from Phobos-Grunt recently, but the exact point in time is not known.
The origin or nature of the debris is uncertain as well – wether it is a
spacecraft component that separated from PG or an object that was released on
Spacecraft Separation is not known. A total of 6 objects were in Orbit following Spacecraft Separation on November 8, one being PG itself, one was the
Zenit Rocket Body and the remaining four were Launch Vehicle Debris. The new
item is the 7th related to this mission. 6 of these parts are still
in Orbit as of December 1.

This ground based Image of Phobos-Grunt taken by Ralf Vandebergh shows that at least one of PG's two Solar Arrays is in its deployed configuration. The images show no clear evidence of any missing Spacecraft components that could be identified as 'Object G',

First Attempt to raise Orbit fails

November 29, 2011

_Last
night’s attempts to send commands to Phobos-Grunt have not been successful. The
Spacecraft did not raise its orbit and remains on track for Re-Entry in
January.
Russian
Mission controllers have asked ESA to repeat sending the commands to the
trapped spacecraft. Tracking data revealed over the course of the day that PG’s
Orbit was not changed by an engine burn and remains at 209.8 by 310 km.. Wether
the vehicle simply did not receive the signal or received the data and was not
able to conduct the burn for a technical reason has not been released.
ESA has
modified its Maspalomas Ground Station (Spain) to have a second communication
asset along the orbital path of Phobos Grunt. The same modifications that were
made on the Perth Tracking Station have been implemented on the 15-meter dish
at this Station including the feedhorn antenna that is used to send low-power
signals to the Spacecraft.
Communication Opportunities for the Baikonur;
Maspalomas and Perth Ground Stations have already taken place today and more
are coming up for the two ESA Ground Stations. Russian Controllers will confirm
a possbile orbit raising maneuver tomorrow. Like yesterday, a targeted burn
time has not been announced by the Russian Space Agency.

_This is a ground-based
image of the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft taken by Ralf Vandebergh (>>>His
Twitter Account)

Orbit-Raising Attempt for Phobos-Grunt

November 28, 2011

_Communication
Attempts via ESA’s Perth Ground Station resume today as Russian Mission
Controllers and ESA personnel struggle to re-establish contact with the
Spacecraft.Five
Communication passes are available today; 4 are favorable considering vehicle
orientation and sunlight, so only 4 attempts will be made. Communication passes
are available from 18:21 to 03:47 UTC. Over the weekend, Phobos-Grunt continued to be
silent. The last successful communication was on November 24, 2011 via the
Baikonur Ground Station. Perth had to stand down over the weekend because the
Tracking Station began preparations to support the launch of another mission. Russian
Mission Controllers have provided ESA with a set of commands that will be
uplinked to the spacecraft. These are commands to ignite the engine and boost
the spacecraft to a higher orbit. Obviously, a successful burn would eliminate
the immediate danger of re-entering the Earth’s Atmosphere. Current Predictions
range from early to late January. Also, in a higher orbit, further
communications with the vehicle would get easier as the duration of Ground
Station passes increases so that a larger amount of data could be uplinked or
downloaded. Currently, favorable Comm Passes are 7 Minutes in duration as PG orbits earth in a 210 by 310 km Orbit. For that to happen, PG has to be able to receive, process and
execute the commands that are being sent today. According to ESA, confirmation of a successful
Orbit Rasing Maneuver will be provided tomorrow by Russian Mission Controllers.
When the Burn is set to occur has not been released.

Click to view larger Image

Click to view larger Image

Still no Communications with Phobos-Grunt

November 26, 2011

Sources have reported that all ESA attemtps to communicate with the Spacecraft on November 25/26 (UTC) have not
been successful. The Perth Tracking Station was not able to receive any signal
from the Vehicle. PG has now been silent for at least 48 hours since the
last Communication with the spacecraft was on November 24 via the Baikonur
Tracking Station. Wether there have been further attempts via Baikonur has not
been reported.The Perth
Tracking Station will resume communication attempts on Monday, November 28 to
try and re-establish contact with Phobos-Grunt.A reason
for PG going silent again has not been given. Without telemetry, there is no
capability of assessing vehicle health and state of charge of the vehicle’s
batteries. Should PG be out of power and stop sun-tracking for some reason, contact
could be lost forever. Orbital observations indicate that Phobos-Grunt is not tumbling
and apparently holding its attitude. More observations will have to be made over
the coming days to provide Tracking Stations with information on vehicle/orbital
status. Orbital Decay has been as expected over the past 48 hours. PG is currently
in a 211 by 313 Kilometer Orbit around Earth.
Meanwhile, NASA’s next Mars Mission had a successful
Launch and Trans Martian Injection. Full Story.

Has PG gone silent again?

November 25, 2011

After two days of successful Communications with Phobos-Grunt, ESA has failed to establish contact with the vehicle during yesterday’s Communication Passes over the Perth Ground Station. Russian Mission Controllers had provided ESA with a series of Commands that were supposed to be sent up to the spacecraft. Engineers at the Perth Station were using the same techniques as the days before when contact was successfully established, but this time there was no signal from PG at all. ESA and Russian Mission Controllers are assessing the situation carefully and are preparaing new attempts set to take place later today.The Baikonur Pass from November 24 was confirmed to have provided vehicle telemetry data. According to unofficial Russian Sources, this telemetry was good data that did not cause any encoding/decoding issues. Said sources indicated that the vehicle’s communication system and flight computer were functioning normally according to the telemetry received via Baikonur. After these communication passes, PG went silent once again, however it had several passes over Baikonur today. No official information was released regarding any communication successes. Observation of PG indicate that the Spacecraft has stopped its irregular motion and is in an orbit that is dropping steadily. For ESA, this is a sign of a stabilization of the orbit, however it could also indicate that sun pointing and/or attitude control have stopped for some reason.Time will tell if the current lack of communication is spacecraft related or only a function of orbital position. ESA will resume communications on November 28 after today’s attempts because other missions also need communication passes via the Perth Station.

Image: Roscosmos

ESA maintains Vehicle Communications

November 23, 2011

_ESA has
succeded in maintaining contact with the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft. A total of
five communication passes were available between 20:19 UTC on November 23 and
4:08 UTC on November 24. On the first
communication pass over the Perth Ground Station, PG’s signal was acquired and
teams successfully downlinked telemetry data. The data was sent to Russian
specialists for analysis. Problems with this data arose when it became clear
that the telemetry was encoded and incomplete. It was determined that this data
could not be deciphered and that a set of unencoded data is required to
understand the status of the Spacecraft.The second
of five passes for Perth was shorter and it was used to uplink commands without
expecting a signal to come back from PG. No contact was established during the
subsequent passes, the final three for the night. During the first two
attempts, one of the two low-gain antennas of the spacecraft was in view of the
Tracking Station. For the three passes that occurred without establishing contact,
the spacecraft was in a different orbital position which would have required
communications via the second antenna. This pattern indicates that the
spacecraft has only one good LGA while the second system is either broken or
obstructed for some reason. ESA and Russian Mission Controllers are working
closely to understand the situation and prepare upcoming communication passes.Russian
Sources have reported that the Baikonur Ground Station has picked up the
Spacecraft’s signal on November 24, 2011 and obtained telemetry as well. This
information has not been officially confirmed by the Russian Space Agency yet. Unofficial reports are indicating that this telemetry has been decoded and is undergoing analysis now.

Image: Heavens Above

The first of five Communication Passes over the Perth Ground Station on November 24/25

_Tonight
(UTC), another set of five Comm Passes is available and the Perth Tracking
Station will prioritize making contact with PG over other tasks. Passes are
occuring from 20:12 UTC to 04:04 UTC. A Command will be uplinked to PG that
triggers the Flight System to send a set of Unencoded Telemetry.Observations
of PG’s Orbit indicate that the phenomenon that was described in one of our
earlier Mission Updates has stopped over the past 72 hours. The irregular
increase in perigee which was observed since November 14 has ceased on or around November 21 and perigee
has started to drop again. Apogee is still decreasing as expected. What has
caused this short-term phenomenon is uncertain as there has not been any valid
vehicle telemetry indicating thruster burns - however maneuvers of the vehicle to maintain attitude are the most likely explanation. Now that parameters are evolving
normally again, new Re-Entry Predictions can be made assuming that control over
the spacecraft can not be re-gained and that suspected maneuvering will not
re-occur. In that case, PG would be facing orbital decay in mid-January of
2012. The Probe is currently flying in a 317 x 211km Orbit.

Meanwhile, another rumor has emerged in Russian
Media blaming America’s ionosphere research site in Alaska for causing the
failure of the Phobos-Grunt Mission. According to those reports, emissions from
Radars that are located at the facility could have caused the problems that
emerged in the early phase of the mission.

ESA receives Signal from PG

November 23, 2011

Photo: ESA

Perth, 15m Dish

_The ESA
Ground Station near Perth, Australia, has achieved contact with the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft yesterday
at 20:25 UTC. Earlier, ESA had announced that one final attempt would be made
to communicate with the Probe. On one of four attempts, a signal from the
Spacecraft was received.The Antenna
of the ground station was modified by adding a feedhorn antenna that is capable
of sending low-power signals over a wide angle making it easier to correctly
point the antenna. PG was built to receive low-power signals from Earth while being
in deep space. The faint signal that was sent by the large 15-meter antenna is
believed to be a good simulation of the weak signal the spacecraft would expect
to hear during its nominal operations out of Low Earth Orbit. A factor that
might also contribute to the fact that only Perth has made contact yet is that
the spacecraft is in sunlight at the time it passes over the station. The
spacecraft’s transmitter was turned on by command and a signal was then sent
back to Earth. Data that was received from the spacecraft was sent to Russian
Mission Controllers for analysis. Early indications are that the data that was received is not of any real value except for validating that the probe was alive to some extent. During the Comm Pass, data on the exact orbit of PG was obtained which will make further communication attempts easier in terms of antenna positioning.Today, two
communication attempts via the Perth Tracking Station will be made at
20:21-20:28 and 21:53-22:03 UTC.The next step for these communication windows is to
maintain contact with the spacecraft, downloading telemetry that shows in what kind
of condition the spacecraft is in order to sort out the failure that prevented the
engines from igniting after orbital insertion. Russian Mission Controllers are working
closely with ESA personnel exchanging downlinked data and commands that are planned
to be uplinked during the communication passes.

__ Ultimately, Mission Controllers
will try to re-gain control over the spacecraft with reliable communications and
commanding. Where the mission could go from here [should the spacecraft be in good condition]
is uncertain at this point in time. However, it is highly doubtful that the mission
can still meet all of its objectives – even with a completely healthy spacecraft.

No Communications with PG, Orbit changes eratically

November 22, 2011

The Phobos
Grunt Mission has not been declared a failure by Russian Space Officials yet,
however the chances of saving the Mission have dropped to zero. Communications
with the vehicle have not been established. Without communication capablitites,
it is uncertain wether the Probe is still alive or not.
At this point, the window to send PG to Mars on its
pre-planned trajectory has expired. Reports indicate that the Spacecraft could
still go to Mars by using more propellant to reach Mars, eleminating the return
part of the mission. For that to happen, contact with Phobos-Grunt has to be
established. Mission Controllers and Technicians are stilly trying to send
commands to the spacecraft hoping to receive a signal from the probe.

_
Re-Entry
predictions have gotten broader over the past several days as Phobos-Grunt’s
orbit has intially started changing periodically, was then showing a steady
trend before starting to become erratic again. For some reason, the Perigee of
the Orbit was rising while apogee is showing a stedy drop. Mean Altitude Loss
is steady as well. Without telemetry data, finding the cause of this phenomenon
is impossible. For Russian Officials, the orbital behavior of the Spacecraft is
a sign for an operational navigation system making thruster firings to maintain
attitude. Others have speculated that a fuel leak and associated venting could
be causing this behavior.
ESA has
indicated that one final attempt to contact the PG Vehicle will be made tonight
via their tracking assets. How long Russian Tracking Stations will continue
attempts to establish communications is not clear at this time.
Even
without any chance for mission success, Russia would still benefit from
telemetry data coming from the Spacecraft as this version of vehicle is similar
to future vehicles for several missions including a lunar sample return flight using hardware derived
from this Spacecraft.
Meanwhile, the Upper Stage of the Zenit Rocket that
delivered the PG Vehicle to its initial parking orbit is about to or has
already re-entered the Atmosphere. Confirmation of Entry will be posted on the Entry Page.

Still no Signal, Entry Predictions shift

November 14, 2011

_Russia’s
attempts to contact the Phobos-Grunt Spacraft via Russian and European Ground Stations have not been successful. No
telemetry has been downlinked from the Vehicle.An official
Update issued by Roscosmos indicated that tracking stations can not track
Phobos in an orbit with an altitude this low. The Spacecraft passes faster than
the Tracking Antennas can download/uplink data as the mission design never
predicted Phobos-Grunt Communications from Low Earth Orbit. First Contact was
scheduled for a time at which the probe was several thousand kilometers from
Earth providing a slow moving ground pass. Attempts to make contact will
continue and Officials are still hoping for luck in communicating with the
Probe. According to the latest update, the Window for the Trans Martian
Injection expires in early December of 2011. Re-Entry Predictions have shifted
as well over the past several days. Estimations range from late November/early
December to the first half of January of next year. Predictions will become
more refined as more orbital analyses are completed and as actual Re-Entry approaches when Phobos-Grunt gets closer to the dense atmosphere. The current orbit of the spacecraft is 208 by 333 Kilometers.What has
been confirmed is that the vehicle’s solar arrays are deployed and sun
pointing. It is suspected that the vehicle is intact with nominal attitude
control and navigation system performance. Roscosmos has stated that the Agency would not
declare a mission failure before the TMI Window expires in December.

Image: Orbitron

Phobos-Grunt Sample Ground Tracks

Phobos-Grunt not accepting Ground Commanding

November 11, 2011

Phobos Grunt is still in Low Earth Orbit and has not been properly communicating with Ground Stations for more than 48 Hours now. Official news have not been released by the Russian Space Agency or any Government Official. Speculations are still emerging as several Space News Websites and News Papers provide different information based on anonymous sources in the space industry or based on experts that are outside the Russian Space Program. Amateur Astronomers have been tracking the Spacecraft since it got stuck in its initial orbit of 207 by 347 Kilometers. Tracking revealed that Phobos-Grunt has already dropped to an orbit of 206 by 339 Kilometers. Observers have noted that the spacecraft appears to be stable and sun-pointing which could suggest that the Attitude Control System of the Vehicle (along with Sun and Star Trackers, Computer Processing Units and electrical connections) is in stable shape and operating to some extent. Russian sources have provided a very plausible explanation of what could be wrong with the Spacecraft. Again, this is unofficial information and accuracy is not guaranteed, but this scenario makes sense and appears to be coming from informed sources. The communication system of the vehicle seems to be the problem. It was reported that downlink telemetry was at least received once via Low Gain Antennas of the vehicle. There are several LGAs on Phobos-Grunt. Communications via the two High Gain Devices are not an option as these HGAs are not deployed at this point. After there was a problem prior to the first burn, the Spacecraft could have switched to a safe mode that is automatically initiated when the onboard computer detects problems. To reboot the system, commands from Ground Stations have to be received by the Spacecraft. Apparently, these commands can be received by Low Gain Antennas that are currently hidden under a Propellant Tank of the MDU. This tank is holding the fuel for the first engine burn and was designed to be jettisoned after this burn to enable uplink communications. With this obstructed field of view of these LGAs, there is only a small chance that a signal can be accepted. Without a lucky reflection, Russia might have no chance to regain control over its spacecraft.

Image: Roscosmos

In this scenario which seems to be the most likely one, chances to save the mission are very small. Without the capability to have the vehicle accept commands from Earth, Phobos-Grunt would be on a path to Re-Entry. Current estimations indicate that the vehicle would hit the atmosphere around the November 27 timeframe. What the exact dangers are that the vehicle presents in a Re-Entry Scenario is not clear. What is known is that the Spacecraft and its propulsion unit are holding more than 10,000Kg of toxic propellants (Hydrazine and Nitrogen Tetroxide) and that potentially dengerous materials are on board. Without uplink capability, re-entry would be uncontrolled and no safety measures like venting the fuel tanks could be done prior to hitting Earth's atmosphere. The inclination of the orbit is almost identical to ISS Orbital Parameters, so almost all areas that the ISS passes are potential impact zones.

Wild Speculation on the fate of the Mission without official News

November 10, 2011

[Update 1750UTC]Reports have been confirmed that attempts to establish communications with the spacecraft will be made on the next two consecutive orbits via the Baikonur Ground Station. An Australian Station that is operated by ESA will try to contact the Spacecraft on subsequent orbits. According to unconfirmed reports, earlier attempts to contact Phobos-Grunt via the Kourou Tracking Station have failed.

There are no official or confirmed details on the state of the Phobos-Grunt Mission at this time. Wild speculations have gotten underway since the news of a problem emerged several hours after the successful orbital insertion. What is known is that the Spacecraft has been stuck in its initial Low Earth Orbit and that the two planned Engine Burns that were supposed to put Phobos-Grunt on its Interplanetary Trajectory have not occurred. Also, Rosocosmos has made an official news release that indicated that there was some hope to save the mission.

Photo: Roscosmos

Questions that have to be answered in order to make assumptions without speculating:

Is the vehicle communicating? (Is there a chance to save the mission?) A Russian source reported that the Zenit Launch Vehicle sent telemetry that confirmed a successful spacecraft separation from the second stage. One orbit later, downlink communication from the vehicle was received that indicated a deployment of the solar arrays and correct vehicle orientation. According to the source, this was the only communication with the Spacecraft. On the next pass in the range of Ground Stations, Phobos-Grunt was still in its initial orbit, but no downlink was received. Attempts have been made to restart the Flight Computer of the Spacecraft. Assuming that no communication has been received since Orbit #2, those attempts had to be made ‘in the dark’. Other sources report that there has been communication with the vehicle and that Mission Controllers have received telemetry data that enables them to assess the problem. However, there is no uplink capability for sending commands to the spacecraft. A Russian TV Station has picked up that report and has stated that analysis of the data is underway.

What’s wrong with the Spacecraft? What options do Mission Controllers have? Roscosmos has not released any information on the nature of the failure. Russian News Papers have reported that two different scenarios are being considered. It could be a software problem that could be solved by restarting the system and uplinking new commands and eventually perform the burns. The second scenario is that a hardware fault caused the issue. There is no information on Spacecraft redundancy which would allow commanding to switch to a redundant system in case of a failed component. Usually chances for mission success dramatically decrease when there is a hardware issue.

How much time do Mission Controllers have to solve the problem?Roscosmos has released information that there were two weeks to work the issue before the mission will have failed. What is known is that the window for the critical TMI – Trans Martian Injection – expires on November 25 which is consistent with the official update. Another item that in question is vehicle energy. Are the solar arrays deployed and providing at least limited power or is Phobos-Grunt flying on battery power only? In case of no power supply and batteries being the only power source, it is doubtful that the Spacecraft could operate for two weeks. Another aspect is the low orbital altitude of the vehicle. Without an Orbit Raising Maneuver, the Spacecraft is on a path to re-enter the atmosphere. Should there be no capability of performing an engine burn, that entry process would be uncontrolled and could happen anywhere on the 51.4°-inclined Orbit. Re-Entry would present significantly more risk than the Re-Entries of NASA’s UARS Satellite and the German ROSAT that have occurred earlier this year. Phobos-Grunt is much larger than these two satellites. Also, the 13,500-kilogram Spacecraft is fully fueled with toxic Hydrazine. In case the vehicle ends up dead in LEO, this Hydrazine could freeze and potentially reach the surface as portions of it might survive re-entry. How many components would survive the re-entry environment is not clear at this time. About 30 to 40% of parts of a larger spacecraft usually reach Earth’s surface which would mean that there is a chance that more than 5,000 kilograms of Phobos-Grunt debris will make it to the surface if the spacecraft is not able to leave orbit. Entry estimations indicate that the Spacecraft will hit the atmosphere within 21 Days.

Mission Controllers trying to save the Phobos-Grunt Mission

November 9, 2011

Russia’s ambitious Phobos-Grunt Mission is facing an early mission failure as Mission Controllers are still trying to find the cause of the problem that trapped the vehicle in Low Earth Orbit after being Launched aboard a Zenit Rocket.Reports coming from Russia are very different and official releases are rare. What is confirmed is that Phobos-Grunt is still in its Low Earth Orbit of 207 by 347 km or a little less due to interaction with the upper levels of the atmosphere. No Burns were performed by the MDU – the Main Propulsion Unit of the Spacecraft. Mission controllers have not been able to receive a full telemetry set from the vehicle as there is only one Ground Station at the Baikonur Cosmodrome that can receive such a downlink packag e. Just before 1900UTC today, a Pass in Range of that Station was occurring. Wether contact to Phobos-Grunt was made is unknown at this time (19:25UTC). Russian sources have indicated that Mission Control would use this data to evaluate and identify the problem and try to find a solution. Should the problem be software related, a quick fix could be developed and the Burns could be retargeted and reprogrammed. Should a hardware problem be the cause, chances of a repair would be slim. In that scenario, Phobos-Grunt would become a 13,500-kilogram piece of space debris headed for uncontrolled re-entry – assuming that the MDU is dead and no burn could be made to control the entry process. Without control of the vehicle, re-entry will occur within one month.Should a restart of the software system fix the problem, the first of two engine burns could be performed as early at 8pm EST today after the appropriate commands have been uplinked.Other reports are indicating that the attitude control system is working which would be good news as star and sun trackers are essential for vehicle navigation and targeting burns. The mission is currently constrained by power and fuel limitations. Roscosmos has released an offical report that Phobos-Grunt will be able to operate in its Low Earth Orbit for two weeks before either power runs out or the window for TMI (Trans Martian Injection) expires on November 25. Early reports stated that only three days of power would be available.

Photo: Roscosmos (www.federalspace.ru)

Phobos-Grunt still in LEO

November 9, 2011

The long awaited confirmations of successful engine burns sis not come and indications are that Phobos-Grunt is still in Earth Orbit. According to Russian sources, the Main Propulsion System did not initiate any of the burns. The exact cause of the failure is still unkown as Russiam Communication Stations were out of range when the Burns were supposed to occur. Russian Mission Controllers are now trying to recover from the problem by assessing the issue and trying to re-target the burns to get the vehicle into an interplanetary trajectory after all. For that, they have less then three days before battery power on the Spacecraft rans out.

Phobos-Grunt delivered to Orbit

November 8, 2011

The first part of the long Phobos-Grunt Mission was a success. Lifting off on time at 3:16:03pm EST, from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan, the Zenit 2SB Rocket delivered the Spacecraft to its initial parking orbit of 207x347Km. Ascent Performance was nominal and the Launcher successfully completed its job at the point of spacecraft separation when Phobos-Grunt was released. The crucial launch phase of the mission will continue for several hours as the Propulsion Unit of the Spacecraft has to perform two large engine burns to put the Spacecraft onto its interplanetary trajectory. More Information on today's Mission Profile including a full Orbital Ground Track Map can be found here.

Launch Video

Final Preparations for Launch later Today

November 8, 2011

The Russian Space Agency plans to resume its Interplanetary Mission Program today after 15 years without launching an interplanetary flight. Phobos-Grunt stands ready for launch on top of a Zenit 2SB Rocket today at 3:16pm EST. Preparations are on track and there are no reports of problems that could hold up the final countdown for blastoff from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan. Final Launch Preparations began when the spacecraft arrived at the launch site on October 17, 2011. Payload Processing and Integration were performed. Later the Zenit Rocket was attached to the Payload Adapter in preparation for Rollout. The Launch vehicle was rolled to the Launch Pad on November 6. Once at the launch pad, the Rocket was put into its erect launch position and final testing of the vehicle began. Launch operations are underway today. The final GO/No GO decision before starting final countdown operations will be made by a Russian Government Commission. The Zenit Rocket will deliver the 13,500-kilogram vehicle into its initial Earth Orbit. Just before 5 hours into the mission and after two additional engine burns, the first to modify the orbit and the second to increase the velocity to escape velocity, the Phobos-Grunt Spacecraft will be on its interplanetary trajectory. Hitching a ride on Phobos-Grunt is a 113-kg Chinese Mars Orbiter called ‘Yinghou 1’ and the LIFE Experiment consisting of several different microorganisms that will make the round trip to Phobos and back to Earth for analyses. For more information on today’s launch visit the Phobos-Grunt Mission Design Page. (With Timelines, Ground Tracks and Additional Information)