Martinez vs Chavez

DatMofoThere85: Nice info. At first assessment, I had a very similar take. Roach stopping it maybe against their strategy, as they are most likely banking on Chavez scoring body shots and let it take a compounding toll on Martinez's body. I feel Martinez is very aware of this and that's why I disregard any corner, trainer, fighter (etc) talk about how they will fight. You don't hear a fighter going in to a large media based fight and say " My opponent is to slow, so I will hit him with punches as he walks in, and I will avoid body shots with constant movement and use this strategy as it remains effective and if he can handle the shots. I won't force a stoppage but only if he is hurt badly and the risk is low." Martinez would love a stoppage, but he would love a win first, and a win by KO second. A stoppage would help him media for those that are on the fence about him, but realistically if he does stop Chavez more than half of those on the fence will say Chavez had no shot as he was to small and to slow and any stoppage was likely as he is purely offensive and not technical and defensive.Although Martinez would gain more respect, at what cost? And how much would a stoppage help his career as a dominant decision?Although we also have seen a consistency of bad decisions in the past few years, if the fight goes as many think with Chavez engaging and taking one to several shots on the way in, much of the Vegas fans will cheer the big punches Martinez is waiting and possibly landing. Even is Chavez can deflect 70% of the power in many shots, the fans still cheer. If the judges are not intentionally cheating, they are also swayed by the roar of fans that will be more for Chavez but still yell when Martinez lands fast shots. It is very common judges on the square are just as easily biased by hometown fans as anyone. Just because they are judges doesn't make them less human and immune to being swayed, but we would like to believe they would be as it is their job to be non-partial. That is true pre-fight, but any judge who loves boxing and gets any rush like a true fan is a victim of being swayed with the majority.

I don't think the odds are going to change much, but more likely to make Sergio a bigger favorite. The night of the fight, many fight fans at the fight will bet Chavez as people are betting the name and nationality more than the man. I keep reading forum posts (blogs,etc) and others talking about Martinez and people referred to him as Mexican, Puerto Rican and Latino born State-Side. I think so many people are use to Mexican and Puerto Rican fighters (Cuban {they have been better Amateur and Olympics the past 20 years} and Dominican) that they forget about South America. Any boxing fan of past fighters would help the Martinez nationality issue go away...CARLOS MONZON... The Argentine Shotgun (or we refer him as Argentinian or Argentinean)! Here is a man with 100 professional bouts over a 14 year career, and his stats below:87 WINS (KO 59)3 LOST (KO 0)9 DRAWS1 NO CONTEST

I don't trust Bob Arum fights that take place in Nevada. Las Vegas is Top Rank's headquarters so the "probabilty" that money or gifts find their way in the hands of state appointed officials is increased. Chavez is an extremely marketable fighter for Top Rank and Martinez is not promoted by Top Rank. On top of that you have the WBC belt on the line which is biased to JR because of his nationality and marketability. Even if the judges aren't being paid off the Thomas Mack center will be sold out with loud Mexican fans who jumped at the low ticket prices that Arum was forced to drop with the Alvarez fight being down the street. (BTW the Goldenboy undercard pimpslaps the garbage out of Arum's disgraceful PPV card). As was stated by Zouk, even impartial judges can be swayed by the crowd.

Call me a conspiracy theorist but in the Bradley-Pacquiao decision both fighters are promoted by Top Rank so in a rematch Bob Arum still comes out the winner. The Rios-Abril fight took place in Las Vegas and was a blatantly robbery decision that went to the Top Rank fighter. Bob Arum could care less if Martinez' career takes a back step and a rematch with Martinez would still sell because JR has an exciting style and a loyal following.

Simply put Martinez can't afford to play it safe and he knows it. That doesn't mean he'll go toe-2-toe but I expect him to fully step in with his crosses as opposed to just scoring with the cross. JR gets hit alot and takes a good shot, however his face will get busted up and that's why I'm predicting a stoppage on cuts.

i mentioned before the paq/bradley fight that tim would get a fair shake(for your exact reasonings) as well as the chavez/lee fight(i did not believe that three bad decisions in a row in texas was possible and that andy would get a fair decision) and i agree with you that sergio knows that he will have to completely dominate to get a decision against chavez jr, the poster boy for wbc jose suliaman and top rank. i am fairly positive that maritnez will not get a favorable scoring similar to lee and bradley.

i think that sergio ("steps in with his crosses as opposed to just scoring with the cross") is coming to ktfo chavez or get ktfo trying. we are going to see the best sergio martinez in two weeks.

i know that martinez got some recent death threats and that there are alleged ties with chavez to the sinaloa cartel(mexican cartels are extremely ruthless and powerful) but i really havent looked into that angle yet. after betting here in mexico for six years i am fairly certain that chavez will go off at close to even money or even be the favorite at www.caliente.com.mx

i live in sinaloa and if i read something here re the cartel angle that i find credible i will post such information.

Pretty good thread going on here. However, I'm not sure this is a fight that really needs to be scrutinized all that much.

Simply answer this question yes or no: Is Martinez going to be able to completely dominate a fighter that is essentially two weight classes above him? I don't think so. Especially considering the recent trend in boxing with fighters simply ignoring the contracted weight agreements.

Personally, I see this as another fight that is going to make you hate boxing. Chavez has already been able to dictate the terms of this fight - an odd development considering Martinez's position as an elite, proven pound-for-pound fighter. DiBella is basically powerless in negotiations against Top Rank and Golden Boy.

As interesting as this fight is on paper, the result isn't likely to be a definitively clean one. Martinez has the ability to change that, but with the deck stacked against him it probably too much to ask.

As far as wagering goes, I'm not seeing much value other than "fight won't go" at solid +money. I can't find the agreed upon ring size, but if I had to guess it isn't going to be a big one. 20X20 should be the mandatory for Vegas, but I'm guessing that's negotiable too. Regardless, there shouldn't be much doubt about the level of action in this fight. I would certainly rather make a small play on ITD in an action fight than lay chalk on Martinez and hope Chavez Jr doesn't job him on bullshit.

Chavez is going to get harder than ever before and will get hit at unfamiliar angles from the southside puncher. He will come straight forward with a lazy guard and will be ripe for a straight left bomb, a la the one that ended the Paul Williams' rematch in the second round.

There is such a difference in the opposition that the two have faced here. That is not to say Chavez cannot pull this off. Martinez does look less confident since his trainer was forced to face charges in Spain, but there is too much of an experience difference here for me. In the weigh-in, Martinez' hands looked much bigger, too, which should mean heavier hands.

First, it could have been the angle or the way it looked as Chavez is the taller guy and shorter arm, thus forearm size and wrist size sometimes makes it look skewed. We already know Martinez has the speed and accuracy to land one punch KOs. Chavez seems to be relentless never keying on one big shot unless it is a body shot. Hand size in this scenario doesn't help my decision process as some fights it does. When you had JMM step up to fight Mayweather, you could see all around size and hands, so it gives you an idea. This fight comes down to experience and if Chavez can get through the first 5 rounds without getting cut or swelling badly and can somehow reach Martinez's body.

I recently watched Chavez Sr vs Camacho and I was AMAZED at how well Sr cut the ring off against a southpaw with some of the greatest footwork of all time (yes I do stand by that statement). Lets not forget Camacho was pretty lethal and devastating himself before Rosario took his nuts. I think about Senior's know-how combined with Roach's teachings and strategy combined with Ariza's "tricks" and conditioning combined with Jr's chin and weight advantage, combined with Martinez' physical decline and over-rated boxing IQ...etc. Let's not forget that pressure fighters with good chins tend to have 1 or 2 great moments in their career where they beat a much better skilled and talented opponent. As they say, "sometimes will beats skill". Think of Margarito vs Cotto. Margarito left something in the ring that night but he won. Repeated brain trauma eventually dulls reflexes but Chavez has yet to recieve an extended beatdown. He does however have the weight of his father and all of Mexico on his back combined with Martinez' remarks fueling him even more.

Why would he want to get his behind kicked? He's going to beat a 180lb Chavez Jr? He went fairly hard with a basically shot Cotto. Martinez would knock Floyd the darn out. He ain't friggin with these guys or someone like Matthysse. Why should he? He ain't worried about taking the most difficult fights. Least risk, most reward. He's a very smart man and I'm sure he plans on staying that way.

Also, the more I think about this fight the more I feel Martinez is going to wreck Chavez Jr. It's simply a man vs a boy and a fighter against someone whom just happens to fight. The level of professionalism Martinez exhibits regarding his training and career in paralleled only by Mayweather. Chavez Jr is simply an arrogant clown that feels he can simply skate by on some natural ability and the path of least resistance. Martinez is always supremely focused, but I feel he wants to humble Chavez Jr and teach him a lesson about how to become the best fighter in the world instead of just talking about it.

Martinez, Mayweather, Ward, Pacquiao. What do they all have in common? They work harder than their peers. They're willing to sacrifice more than others to remain at the pinnacle of their sport. Does Jr strike you as this type of guy? Hell no. He's also not even close to the level of natural athlete these men are.

Martinez is simply too smart, too motivated, too prepared to lose to someone like Chavez. He's going to wreck him, without a doubt. However, I don't doubt that Chavez takes it like a man. He'll grow a lot from this fight, but I'm starting to see a complete asswhipping coming his way.

This isn't even factoring in the possibility that he still has a bad leg. Could you imagine a one-legged Chavez Jr in front of Martinez all night? It would simply be punishment. Like DatMoFo said, he probably doesn't even have the mobility at 100% to compete with Martinez. Hinder that further.... OUCH.

Quite frankly, I don't see how in the hell a man like Martinez can lose to somebody like Chavez Jr at this particular moment. Not physically, not mentally, not luckily, just not anything.

Betting on Chavez Jr is borderline delusional. Other than him keeping it somewhat close and getting a gift, can anyone picture him actually putting a beating on Martinez? If so, how?

The path how he got here, not his decision to take this fight. I applaud him for wanting to PROVE he is the best.

The fact remains he got here via gift decisions in Mexico, never fighting outside of Texas, not turning in urine samples, re-hydrating to over 180lbs, defeating the weakest middleweight champ via bogus WBC rankings... is that enough?

Unless he beats Martinez (or is competitive) he is nothing more than a product of good management and contacts. Sorry, but beating Duddy, Billy Lyell, Zbik (razor close), Manfredo Jr, Rubio and Andy Lee doesn't make you legit.

He didn't fight ANYBODY at 154 and pretty much waited until all the solid middleweights made the mass exodus to super middle. That's 100% indisputable fact, not fiction. If he beats Martinez, he's an elite fighter. Can you name 5 boxers on the planet better than Martinez? I sure as hell can't....

I have been watching the HBO hype on this fight. I re-watched Chavez-Lee and Martinez-Pavlik. Chavez comes straight in with no jab, and the only time he throws his left is a hook. Martinez picked this up on 24/7.

Pavlik is stronger than Chavez (and a better fighter) and did little damage to Martinez. Martinez will not walk straight back with a claw defense like Andy Lee did. He will give Chavez a lot of problems with angles and movement. Also, I have to think Chavez is taking this fight somewhat lightly with his nocturnal schedule, poor training habits and refusal to watch fight film.

Unless I have completely lost my mind and/or am getting caught up in a lot of propaganda, I see this being a close fight for the first 4-5 rounds, and I then see Martinez dominating this fight with superior conditioning and ring generalship.

Another point that I think is really important. Martinez said that it is a "disgrace to boxing that Junior is champion." That goes beyond trash-talking. Martinez truly believes that Chavez' skills are limited. He would never say that if he truly thought there was a chance he would lose. How humiliating would it be if he lost to a "disgrace?"

I see Chavez fading mid-late rounds, with a TKO to follow 7th-10th round.

I'm not buying the Chavez isn't training hard crap. I believe he's nocturnal and trains when he wants but it's Chavez himself that wants you to believe he's slacking. His body looks to be in its best ever condition. I think Chavez is an overall slacker but I refuse to believe he's slacking in his training for this fight.

With regards to the actual fight, I've already stated that Sergio's footwork and speed will be too much.

I'm still curious to Chavez' stategy though. I'm willing to bet he comes out showing the best double-jab we've ever seen from him "pretending" to be able to box 12 rounds. He gradually starts becoming more and more flat-footed while trying to pressure and land hard body shots. The lead right, left hook to the liver combo will definately be in his playbook. Martinez however will begin to time JR and then bust his face up. Chavez' pride however won't let him waiver until he's finally a bloody mess and the doctor mercifully stops the fight.

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