However, expand the forecasts out to 90 days and now all of a sudden they are picking up a signal indicating slightly greater chances of a warmer than normal late fall and winter across much of the West -- particularly the Southwest, but the western Pacific Northwest is on the edge of the warm bubble.

Forecasters are basing this prediction on a combination of long-range models. (Or, for you techies out there: "The outlook is primarily based on dynamical model guidance from the CFS, NMME and IMME, in addition to the consolidation (CON) tool.")

Should skiers and snow lovers panic?!?

I don't think so. For one, it's still not an El Nino winter, which really seems to be the key to a low snowpack winter. We're still neutral conditions, which tend to come in around average for snowpacks. Second, this is a broad generalization of the west coast with the greatest chances mainly focused in the Desert Southwest. And even winters that technically end up warmer than average can still have some good snow storms.

And I subscribe to the law of averages, and it's very rare Seattle goes back-to-back winters with nearly no snow -- last happening in the winters of 1982-83 and 1983-84. So I, for one, am not going to bury my snow shovel!