Westbrook to sit, Crazy Line Movement Ensues

byJohn Ewing

Russell Westbrook, the preemptive -700 favorite to win the MVP, will sit for the first time this season. Thunder head coach Billy Donovan announced Tuesday after shootaround that the OKC star would take a game off for rest.

The Minnesota Timberwolves opened as 1-point favorites at home over the Thunder. However, once it was announced that Westbrook, the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double for a season, would not play the line took off.

The graph is courtesy of our friends at Sports Insights. What is interesting is that at the time of publication 56% of spread bets were backing the T-Wolves but 67% of spread dollars were on OKC even with Westbrook out.

The game total has also dropped. The over/under opened at 217 but is now sitting at 207.5 with the majority of early money on the Over.

What happens when there is big line movement?

Since 2005, there have only been 31 games (out of +16,000) in our database when the line has moved by 7 or more points. This is the ninth time it has happened in the 2016-17 season.

Underdogs that have seen their line get worse by 7 or more points have gone 13-17 ATS

Big line moves (5 or more points) the dogs are 15-7 ATS in 2016-17.

Since 2005, the total has decreased by 9 or more points just 21 times. The OVER is 15-6 in those games.