Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Kerala Election 2016; Latest Final trends: Who will form the next Government?

There will soon be an end to the anxiety and curiosity of the people of Kerala. As assembly elections were announced much earlier this time than usual, the people had a long period of time waiting in eagerness about the political and communal changes that can take place in the state. Until now electoral battles were held between the two fronts viz. UDF and LDF but this time with the arrival of the NDA it has become a triangular fight.Soon there will be answers to all questions about the political future of Kerala. With the counting of votes on May 19, it will become clear whom the people of Kerala have opted to rule them for another five years. Choosing the better devil is a real challenge for most of the concerned voters of Kerala now. There is no necessity for any reports of any vigilance or investigating agency to ascertain that the present UDF government by Oommen Chandy is stained with charges of corruption while the LDF, whether it forms government or not, will be performing violence and murder. (Even the recent statements by some senior CPIM leaders like Jayarajan in his election speech underlines that it is very difficult to separate CPI(M) and violence and today's accidental death of a CPIM activist while making bombs at his home). And the new comer NDA (by Amith Shah and PM Modi) has proved within just two years how easily and smartly they can divide the people and destroy the country by delivering attractive speeches. They also have nothing to claim in delivering good governance these tow years.With just less than two weeks left for the voting, there is a lot of tension not only in the candidates and parties but also in the minds of the politically-literate people of Kerala. It was surprising to know that there was a huge inflow of hawala money into the state this time (probably for the first time) like the majority of states in India.While a portion of the society are thinking to give a chance to the LDF as they believe that only the LDF can minimise corruption and stand sternly against fascism, the other portion is in favour of the UDF and say corruption is better affordable than violence and goondaism. Even though some pre-poll surveys conducted recently by Asianet TV give slight weightage to the LDF in the elections, the choice of the Chief Minister candidate was astonishing. Even people who want a left government favors a person like Ommen Chandy as the Chief Minister of Kerala. According to the survey results, majority of the people of Kerala opined that they preferred Oommen Chandy as the next CM also...The list of contesting candidates in the fray are finalised. There are 140 assembly constituencies in the 14 districts of Kerala.Total number of candidates filed nominations: 1,647Candidates who withdrew nomination by May 2nd: 444Total number of candidates in the final list : 1,203 Malappuram district has highest number of candidates: 145Wayanad district has the least number of candidates: 29The constituency with more number of candidates: Punjar (Kottayam)Even though many prominent personalities of the BJP including the PM Modi and chief Amit Shah are to hold many rallies and meetings in different parts of the state, majority of the people are unanimous in saying that Kerala should keep BJP away. Even though opportunist leaders like Vellappally Nateshan (who has frankly admitted that) have joined hands with BJP, and the BJP with all its power and might is camping in the state (as they did in Delhi) the popular feeling is that divisive and destructive politics of the sangh pariwar must not be entertained in God's own country.The recent over reaction of Oommen Chandy to VS Achutanandan's allegations about 31 cases against him has caused more harm than good.According to the people's public opinion about the ensuing Kerala assembly election results, in the present scenario, there are chances of repeating the previous 2011 election results once again in Kerala with UDF leading just one or two seats. one of the main factors of UDF's slight weigtage is because of their liquor ban policy (implimented by V M Sudheeran) which is welcomed by many particularly the women. But anything can happen any time that can influence the decision of the people until the day of polling ie on May 16th which can affect and alter the present opinion poll of the people. Even the inaction of the police for many days after the brutal rape and killing of poor law student Jisha has adversely affected the UDF to some extend even while writing this matter..!