Pencils Down: My 2012 Oscar Predictions

There comes a point where I have to stop tinkering with my predictions and make my peace with, what is this year, a rather unexciting affair. The categories I feel a little uncertain on are those that depend on an Artist sweep and the Short Film and Documentary categories where I haven’t seen all the nominees. I’ll admit I chose The Shore as it has the most clout and I’m well aware my choice to vote against A Morning Stroll may come back to haunt me.

So I’m going to cover my back quickly by mentioning a War Horse/Hugo sound split, the potential of Hugo taking Cinematography if the Academy don’t finally pay their dues to Lubezki and The Artist maybe even snatching Original Screenplay off Woody Allen after its BAFTA win. And yes, I am still gunning for Rise, even after silly BAFTA went for Hugo. And surely Hugo will prevent The Artist from taking Art Direction, right?! It did have 11 nominations after all!

Oh, and lastly, we know how the Academy likes to award period pieces for their costumes. So maybe that’s one The Artist won’t take. But I still doubt it.

I’m going to be tweeting through the whole thing tonight (follow me @iamnotwaynegale), so join me there, or let me know if you disagree with anything I have to say in the comments section. I just strongly disagree with the ‘tick box’ theory. But we all know it happens – we only have to look back to Slumdog.

My predictions are obviously based on the way things have gone throughout this whole Oscar Race, so unless there are any big surprises, which I can’t see happening, this hopefully shouldn’t be too far off the mark.

It also excites me that I won’t have to write the word ‘Hazanavicius’ quite so many times after tomorrow. Check out my predictions below and make sure to check out the tally of how many Oscars I think each film will get right at the bottom of the post:

7 responses to “Pencils Down: My 2012 Oscar Predictions”

The only things that really rubbed me the wrong way about the Oscars this year were the Best Director and Actor wins. Sorry to all The Artist fans– I like the film well enough myself but I think my take on it is slightly different from others– but the idea that Hazanavicius and Dujardin out-did their competition is kind of silly to me. Sure, their work is fine and all. But it’s also a bit slight in comparison to that of their peers.

Regardless, I’m not that fussed. Hugo won big, at least if you’re a cineaste and the technical awards mean anything to you, while the Screenplay awards went to two deserving writers whose work definitely merited that sort of recognition. So, a fine enough night, though I didn’t watch them– I just checked the winners list the next day.

I totally agree on your comment about Hugo winning big and the screenplay awards going to the deserving parties. However I’m interested in who you would have liked to have seen win Best Director/Actor? Don’t even get me started on those who should have been nominated…..!! I have to admit that I did watch them live, but, being British, there’s something about making yourself stay up until going 5am that’s a little exciting. Or maybe that’s just me.

I tend to ignore the Oscars just because the glitz and spectacle doesn’t wow me. The ceremony, from my perspective, is a whole lot about people indulging in over-congratulatory behavior to the point of being almost vulgar, but that’s me.

As far as who should have won…well, Clooney for Best Actor, because his work in The Descendants is top notch and some of the best of his career. For Best Director, I’d have been happier with literally any of the other choices, but most of all Scorsese and Allen.

As far as who didn’t get nominated, well, I’m past that. Every year someone doesn’t get nominated, and I’ve made my peace with the fact that things like Attack the Block and Drive aren’t built to be recognized by the Academy.

For some reason I can’t reply directly to your last comment in the thread, but yeah, Allen winning would have been great if only for the “oh, he’s not here” value alone. Sort of like if Exit Through the Gift Shop had won Best Documentary last year.

Attack the Block is great! Reminds me of seeing Shaun of the Dead for the first time.

Here’s one major snub that I actually don’t feel bad for complaining about: Certified Copy, which is so good that it kinda makes my top 5 go up to 6. Seriously, it’s outstanding and yet somehow it got ignored by everyone ever. I wouldn’t have seen it if not for the AV Club’s end-of-year list. If you can check it out, do.