There are no large coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun. Credit: SDO/AIA.

SPACE WEATHERNOAA Forecasts

Updated at: 2010 Nov 09 2200 UTC

FLARE

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

CLASS M

10 %

10 %

CLASS X

01 %

01 %

Geomagnetic Storms:Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm

Updated at: 2010 Nov 09 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

ACTIVE

05 %

05 %

MINOR

01 %

01 %

SEVERE

01 %

01 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr

24-48 hr

ACTIVE

10 %

10 %

MINOR

01 %

01 %

SEVERE

01 %

01 %

Tuesday, Nov. 9, 2010

What's up in space

AURORA ALERTS: Did you miss the Northern Lights? Next time get a wake-up call from Space Weather PHONE

INTERNATIONAL SPACE WEATHER INITIATIVE: Prompted by a recent increase in solar activity, more than a hundred researchers and government officials are converging on Helwan, Egypt, this week to discuss the peril of storms from the sun. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

The sequence clearly shows an explosion in progress. "Only Nov. 7th is missing," they say, "because of rare cloudy skies over New Mexico, where the remotely-controlled telescope we used is located."

Another New Mexico observer, Leonid Elenin, estimates the size of comet's expanding atmosphere as 4x6 arcminutes. "There is also some evidence of two symmetrical jets emerging from the nucleus of the comet," he says.

The behavior of this comet reminds many onlookers of exploding Comet Holmes in 2007. Researchers believe Holmes exploded when an icy cavern in the comet's nucleus collapsed. Perhaps something similar has happened to Comet Ikeya-Murakami. The icy visitor from the outer solar system made its closest approach to the Sun in late October, so it has just received a dose of solar heating that could trigger such an event.

Amateur astronomers are encouraged to monitor developments. Various reports put the brightness of the comet between 7th and 9th magnitude, invisible to the naked eye but an easy target for telescopes such as the Comet Hunter. It's easy to find, too, little more than a degree from Saturn in the eastern sky before dawn. Set your alarm and happy hunting! [Sky maps:Nov. 9, 10, 11] [3D orbit] [ephemeris]

RELUCTANT SUNRISE: On Nov. 7th, the sunrise over Grand Marais, Minnesota, could only be described as reluctant. "The sun just wanted to stick to Lake Superior," says Bryan Hansel who snapped this picture:

"I know the feeling," he says. "I just wanted to stick to my bed, but the lake and sunrise called, and I'm glad I answered!"

This is an excellent example of a sunrise mirage. The great volume of water in Lake Superior holds a lot of heat. During the long cold night of Nov.6th, air nestled against the lake's surface was kept relatively warm. By sunrise on Nov. 7th, a temperature inversion had formed, setting the stage for a distorted "sticky sun."

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.