On June 27, Quebec’s highest court delivered a long-awaited judgement on the fate of the federal long-gun registry. Despite the fact that the registry was abolished in April 2012, a court challenge by the Quebec government has kept data relating to the province preserved in legal aspic. At issue was whether Quebec had a proprietary right to the information, which it wanted to use to create its own registry.

While a lower court had found in favour of the province in September 2012, Quebec’s Court of Appeal took the opposite view. It agreed with the federal government, which argued that not only did the provinces lack jurisdiction over the registry data, the data itself was riddled with errors which rendered it more harmful than helpful. In a unanimous 14-page decision, the court found that:

“The data does not belong to Quebec, and the provinces have no control over it… The Parliament of Canada, which considers the data at issue to be pointless and inefficient and believes that its existence in a registry infringes the right to privacy, can certainly decide to stop compiling and preserving that information.”

Both sides reacted swiftly. Parti Quebecois Justice Minister Bertrand St-Arnaud confirmed that Quebec would seek leave to appeal from the Supreme Court, and also file a motion to prevent destruction of the data and ensure it is kept up to date. In Ottawa, Public Safety Minister Vic Toews said the Conservative government applauded the decision and “is committed to defending the rights of law-abiding hunters, farmers and sport shooters in all regions of the country, including Quebec.”

The Tories may savour their victory, but it might prove to be a case of winning the battle while losing the war. By the time this case hits the Supreme Court — which is likely to hear it, given its constitutional significance — Canada will have started the countdown to the next federal election. A verdict from the SCC affirming Ottawa’s right to junk the registry would reinforce anti-Conservative sentiment in Quebec at precisely the wrong time for a party that is already fretting about a looming Trudeau tsunami there.

A poll taken in November 2011 found that 56 per cent of Quebecers supported the registry and 50 per cent believed that it had reduced crime. The province is the only place in the country where a majority of respondents felt this way — yet another example of its growing disconnect from the Rest of Canada on social issues.

Just as they did with the Orange Wave in 2011, in 2015 a majority of Quebecers will park their votes with whoever is most likely to unseat Prime Minister Stephen Harper. In the last vote, that person was NDP leader Jack Layton. This time around, it’s looking like Liberal leader Justin Trudeau. Unless Thomas Mulcair can turn things around for the New Democrats, la belle province risks going red — potentially giving the Liberals enough seats for not only a comeback but a sweep back into power.

Nuking the registry data provides Quebecers with just one more reason to hate the Tories. A Harris-Decima poll taken in November 2011 found that 56 per cent of Quebecers supported the registry and 50 per cent believed that it had reduced crime. The province is the only place in the country where a majority of respondents felt this way — yet another example of its growing disconnect from the Rest of Canada on social issues.

Yes, the long gun registry was a bad idea. Yes, the Tories were right to get rid of it. But they mismanaged its demise. They should have erased the data right away, pre-empting the possibility of Quebec launching its legal challenge. The question of keeping the information would have been made moot.

Of course, when Bill C-19 received Royal Assent on April 4, 2012, Quebec was being run by the minority federalist Liberal government of Jean Charest, which was facing down striking students and plummeting poll numbers. Torching the data could have fuelled separatist sentiment and helped the PQ in the provincial election most observers felt was coming sooner rather than later. (Indeed, the PQ eked out a minority win mere months later, on September 4, 2012). By allowing the provincial courts to fire away, the federal government removed itself from the issue and transformed it into a “made-in-Quebec” decision.

Now the question looks like it’s coming full circle, back to the Canadian high court in Ottawa. Pity the Tories. They stuck to their guns — only to have them blow up in their face.

Tasha Kheiriddin is a well-known political writer and broadcaster who frequently comments in both English and French. In her student days, Tasha was active in youth politics in her hometown of Montreal, eventually serving as national policy director and then president of the Progressive Conservative Youth Federation of Canada. After practising law and a stint in the government of Mike Harris, Tasha became the Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and co-wrote the 2005 bestseller, Rescuing Canada’s Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution. Tasha moved back to Montreal in 2006 and served as vice-president of the Montreal Economic Institute, and later director for Quebec of the Fraser Institute, while also lecturing on conservative politics at McGill University. Tasha now lives in Whitby, Ontario with her daughter Zara, born in 2009.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

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Tasha Kheiriddin is a well-known political writer and broadcaster. After practising law and a stint in the government of Mike Harris, Tasha became the Ontario director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and co-wrote the 2005 bestseller, Rescuing Canada’s Right: Blueprint for a Conservative Revolution. She now hosts a show on Toronto's Talk Radio AM640.