For Nvidia, the Tegra stakes are high. Nvidia is out front with a quad-core chip and is betting it can gain share on the likes of Qualcomm and Texas Instruments. The problem is that analysts aren’t really buying the Tegra 3 argument.

We are not optimistic for Tegra 3 prospects based on how the design win landscape is shaping up. In addition to our concerns over the absence of phone wins, Tegra 3 is emerging in higher performance but weaker brand SKUs that strike us as moving in the wrong direction given the emergence of lower priced Kindle Fire and Nook Tablet class entries that use OMAP. We note key customer Samsung is favoring its own solution or Snapdragon in the 1500MHz Superphone category and appears to be passing on Tegra 3, with platforms that could, in theory, use it.

Add it up and Nvidia looks like it will face a skeptical crowd on its earnings call on Thursday. Analysts are expecting an in-line quarter. Wall Street is looking for earnings of 26 cents a share on revenue of $1.06 billion.