Week 16 MNF Pick: Saints at Falcons

Vegas has this game set at Falcons -2.5, with the Over/Under at 49. I'm tempted to take Atlanta giving less than a field goal in a huge Monday night game that will basically decide the NFC West and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. But the Saints have big-game experienced and no one would be shocked if New Orleans got the win on the road. So let's look at that Total of 49.5 points. It's a high number, especially considering this is a divisional battle that's also essentially a playoff game so it could be tight and low scoring. That said, I still like the Over. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan are two of the best and they will have an indoor track and the big stage of Monday Night Football so I do expect plenty of scoring. The Total opened at 47.5 and it has been bet up to 49 as of Monday morning, so there's some smart money on the Over. There's also some trends on the side of the Over. Over the last 3 seasons, 4 of 5 games in this series have gone Over the Total. For Atlanta, in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, the Over is 9-1. On the New Orleans side, in games where the spread is somewhere within -3 to +3, the Over is 13-3. Today's Best Bet is ATL-NO Over 49.

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