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Thursday, June 24, 2010

June 24: Hot, Humid And Stormy Today

This morning ended up mainly sunny across the area, as the area of clouds mentioned in yesterday's update failed to bring significant cloud cover to the area this morning, but rather well to our north. With this, temperatures are now on the rise, and are expected to peak in the mid 90s away from the coast. A few places in the immediate NYC area or further SW may even reach the upper 90s.

Today's Severe Weather Potential:15% Risk

The short range models have now come into range for today's outbreak, and they are not too impressive. One of the possibilities mentioned in yesterday's discussion is that the best parameters shift to our north, which is the case on the latest RUC runs, which have been consistent. They take a squall line in central PA, but only the northern parts of the squall line survive and intensify due to the higher parameters in southern New England, and the area of the squall line in central PA collapses.

Looking at the current observations, there is an area of strong thunderstorms in western Pennsylvania that is intensifying and moving east. This area of storms is expected to affect our area later this afternoon, bringing locally strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the area, but with the best parameters staying to our north, the worst of the storms may end up to our north and northeast.

Below is my current outlook for today. I included our area in the 15% risk, with the northern and northeastern parts of the area in the dotted area, which represents a potential higher risk zone. More updates will be posted later this afternoon, between 2-4 PM.

Brief Update:

More on the longer range will be posted with a full update late tonight, including the return of heat and storms on Monday and what will come afterwards. Forecasts for Invest 93L in the Caribbean and Celia/Darby in the East Pacific will also be included.

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