Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: Feelin' Lucky

Although they wound up losing in overtime, last Monday night's clash with Pittsburgh provided a tantalizing glimpse of the team Kansas City was built to be. Rather than play from behind all game -- as they've done all year -- the Chiefs grabbed an early, 10-0 lead, played effective defense, and leaned on Jamaal Charles en route to 100 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Playcaller Brian Daboll still wasted ten runs on black-hole back Peyton Hillis, but Charles' effort was a reminder that he can control a game when utilized properly. And if Daboll intends to salvage his resume with some second-half wins, his best player will continue to handle the ball 20-plus times a week. The Bengals rank 20th in run defense and have allowed ten rushing TDs through nine games, so this is a quality matchup for Charles. ... Looking more and more like an offseason free-agent bust, a thoroughly ineffective Hillis has managed 46 yards on his last 18 carries (2.56 YPC), appearing so plodding on the field that it's debatable whether he'd be a fantasy asset even if Charles got hurt. ... Tony Moeaki flashed his potential on a 38-yard gain down the sideline in the Steelers loss. He's still gone 14 games without a touchdown. Moeaki is waiver-wire fodder in fantasy leagues.

The Chiefs' quarterback in any given week doesn't matter a whole lot for Dwayne Bowe, even if Matt Cassel has been slightly better at getting him the football than Brady Quinn. Inconsistency is unavoidable for Kansas City's top receiver in a thoroughly unreliable passing game. Bowe also didn't help himself last Monday night, dropping two balls. Sunday's matchup with Bengals RCB Leon Hall isn't overly unattractive, but Bowe is a coin-flip WR3 at this point. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, averaging five catches for 57 yards over his last five games. ... Jon Baldwin has looked like a 2011 first-round draft bust in his second season and exited the Monday nighter with a third-quarter head injury. He won't play against the Bengals. Neither Baldwin nor backup Steve Breaston is worth owning in 12- or 14-team leagues. ... Dexter McCluster has teased twice this season with productive games: In Week 1 (6-82) and Week 8 (6-54-1). McCluster has four receptions for 35 yards combined the past two weeks. He's a non-factor both in real life and fantasy.

A matchup with Kansas City's defense is ripe A.J. Green's picking. Even after cutting RCB Stanford Routt midseason, the Chiefs have refused to use Brandon Flowers against enemy No. 1 receivers. Flowers remains entrenched at left corner, and actually wound up covering Emmanuel Sanders more than Mike Wallace in last Monday's loss. Green can blow apart RCB fill-ins Jalil Brown and Javier Arenas. ... The Chiefs have surrendered an 18:6 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing quarterbacks, and allow both the highest passer rating (102.1) and yards-per-pass-attempt average (8.4) in the AFC. This is a bad defense. Andy Dalton typically lights up bad defenses, so he's on the back-end QB1 radar coming off a four-touchdown game. ... Instead of promoting Andrew Hawkins, the Bengals have demoted Armon Binns out of their No. 2 receiver rotation. It's now a mixture of Brandon Tate and rookie Mohamed Sanu, and Sanu came away from Week 10 with four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Sanu played off the bench and saw 37-of-60 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. Sanu is not a trustworthy Week 11 fantasy option, but his stock is clearly on the rise. He has big, strong hands and operates comfortably in traffic.

Friday Update: Hawkins injured his knee in Friday's practice and was added to the injury report as questionable. Already an underutilized player, the in-practice injury should delete Hawkins from Week 11 fantasy consideration.

Jermaine Gresham has at least a touchdown and/or 60 yards in four of his last five games and is the No. 11 fantasy tight end through ten weeks. Although Gresham is a stiff route runner lacking dynamic physical tools, the ball is thrown in his direction enough to be a bottom-barrel fantasy starter. Dynasty leaguers should consider selling Gresham after the year if this production keeps up. He'll never be a difference maker. ... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' rushing attempts have dropped in three straight games, and the Bengals tried to get Cedric Peerman (six carries, 21 yards) more involved last week. The coaches are aware that Law Firm is hamstringing the offense. Kansas City ranks 23rd in run defense and typically presents a favorable matchup for opposing backs. Green-Ellis is just so short on talent that he's difficult to trust as more than a low-upside flex.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Chiefs 20

Jacksonville @ Houston

Blaine Gabbert has faced the Texans three times in his career, and you won't be surprised to recall that the results are ugly. Gabbert has completed 30-of-78 passes (38.5 percent) for 286 yards (3.67 YPA), two touchdowns, and three interceptions against Houston. He's absorbed 10 sacks. Be wary of Jags pass catchers in this game, and fire up Houston's fantasy defense. ... It's difficult to imagine the Jaguars moving the ball in Week 11. The Texans' No. 3 run defense has been particularly stout versus inside runners, and that's the type of back Rashad Jennings is. With a pathetic 178 yards on his last 64 carries (2.78 YPC), Jennings would be a stretch even as a flex play. Despite generous workloads, Jennings has played his way out of fantasy relevance. ... Top Texans CB Johnathan Joseph figures to match up with Cecil Shorts on the majority of Sunday's snaps. Since an injury-related bumpy start to the season, Pro Football Focus has charted Joseph with 15 completions allowed on 30 passes thrown into his coverage (50 percent) for just 175 yards (5.83 YPA), with no touchdowns and an interception over the past three games. This is a poor matchup for Shorts. ... X receiver Laurent Robinson should avoid Joseph and is the best play in Jacksonville's wideout group this week, even if he's not a great one. Robinson has at least nine targets in consecutive games. ... Justin Blackmon can't get open, and it continues to show up in the box score. He's averaging under ten yards per catch with one touchdown across nine starts.

Coach Gary Kubiak recently suggested early-season fantasy disappointment Andre Johnson is just beginning to round into form, following a lost offseason due to knee surgery. Johnson finished last Sunday night's win over the Bears with a modest 4-35 stat line, but he looked better on the field than the stats indicate. "Andre Johnson looked like one of the elite wide receivers, looked very, very explosive on a muddy track," ESPN's Cris Carter stated this week. "You could tell his legs are starting to get back under him." With double-digit targets in four straight games, Johnson can flirt with WR1 value again. ... The Jaguars rank 23rd versus the pass and last in sacks. While Matt Schaub's fantasy upside is always capped by Houston's run-dominant offensive design, he should have open receivers Sunday and is a worthwhile two-QB league start. Schaub will operate in a clean pocket. ... Owen Daniels was close to playing in last Sunday night's win at Chicago and returned to practice this week. The fact that Jacksonville has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to tight ends can break lineup ties if owners are loaded at the position, but Daniels is a top-four scorer in points per game. Only Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez are ahead of him. Fantasy leaguers ought to be hard pressed to leave Daniels on the bench.

In five career meetings with the Jaguars, Arian Foster has accumulated 523 yards on 129 carries (4.05 YPC) and six TDs. He's caught 17 balls for 87 more yards. While the per-play averages suggest Jacksonville has held Foster in check, it's a reminder that monster workloads carry bellcow backs through tough times. Foster is averaging over 29 touches per game against the Jags. ... On pace for a pedestrian 41-600-4 stat line, Kevin Walter is primarily a downfield run blocker in Houston's offense. He's the No. 60 fantasy receiver and unworthy of a roster spot in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Don't overthink Ben Tate. While it's great news that he's back from the hamstring strain and will have stretch-run value as a high-upside roster stash in the event of a Foster injury, Tate hasn't played in nearly a month and isn't worth a flex play gamble. Let's see Tate play well in a football game again before counting on him for garbage-time carries. ... Justin Forsett did a great job filling in for Tate, but he'll resume third-string status this week and can be dropped in standard fantasy leagues. Forsett gets an outgoing butt-pat for averaging 4.67 yards per carry.

Friday Update: Tate experienced a setback during the practice week and has been ruled out for Week 11. So Forsett will continue to operate as Foster's ball-carrying caddy. Forsett isn't a fantasy option. Tate's recurring hamstring problems make him an increasingly less attractive "hold" in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Jaguars 3

4:05PM ET Game

New Orleans @ Oakland

Joe Flacco only needed three quarters to shred the Raiders' defense for 341 yards and a hat trick of Week 10 touchdowns, so it's scary to think of what a red-hot Drew Brees might be capable. Compiling a 25:5 TD-to-INT ratio over his last seven games, Brees has the premier Week 11 fantasy matchup among QB1s. ... Oakland showed a particular vulnerability to tight ends in the Baltimore loss, as SLB Philip Wheeler was picked apart in pass coverage. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson combined to secure 7-of-7 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown -- all in the first half. Jimmy Graham, step on up. ... While Marques Colston's yardage has slowed in recent weeks, end-zone trips are carrying him. He's found pay dirt seven times in his last six games. Colston (6'4/225) will give Raiders nickel corner Joselio Hanson (5'9/185) matchup nightmares in the slot in this game. ... Whenever Colston and Graham are healthy, Lance Moore is a game-specific contributor in New Orleans' offense, who can be productive if game flow and individual matchups allow. He can also be as low as the fourth option in the passing attack. It's a recipe for fantasy inconsistency. Moore’s snaps and targets have been up and down since Graham returned from an early-season ankle injury. Even in this favorable matchup, Moore is an unreliable WR3 play.

Moore started over Devery Henderson in last week's win over Atlanta. Dropping 1-of-2 targets, Henderson finished catch-less for the second time in three games. He's waiver-wire material. ... Over the past two weeks, New Orleans' backfield has shifted to Mark Ingram (25 touches) and Chris Ivory (19), and away from Pierre Thomas (14). While unexpected, it was the correct move by coach Joe Vitt. Though he lacks dynamic run skills, Ingram is a chain-moving sustainer back. Ivory is a ferocious runner who needs the ball. Thomas still played the most snaps, but primarily as a pass protector, and it's fair to wonder if Darren Sproles' return from hand surgery will all but weed Thomas out of the offense. ... Vitt went out of his way to praise Ivory -- the Saints' most gifted pure runner -- after a number of highlight-reel carries against the Falcons. "He's run over people since he's been here," Vitt said. "He's always looking to get extra yards. ... You saw him switch the ball into the proper hand when he finished his touchdown run. Those are the little things that he has really worked on to become a better player. It's fun to watch and we're proud of him." Ingram led the Saints in Week 10 carries, but Ivory is a candidate for an increased role against Oakland and a high-upside flex play. ... Sproles only averaged four carries per game before his injury, so he doesn't figure to affect the roles of early-down backs Ivory and Ingram much. Sproles was averaging six receptions, however, and should be plugged right back into PPR lineups.

Friday Update: Sproles seemed like a virtual lock to play in this game after returning to a full practice on Thursday, but he still has some swelling in the hand and will leave the decision to play up to team doctors. Due to this game's late start, this has become a situation to avoid in standard leagues. Sproles is worth waiting for in PPR leagues if you can "handcuff" him with a viable late-game alternative. Ingram and Ivory would be obvious choices.

The Vegas oddsmakers smartly place the highest over-under on Saints games every week. New Orleans' defense is a sieve, and Brees forces opponents to play aggressive offense for all four quarters. The New Orleans-Oakland score projection is a Week 11-high 54.5 points. The average points scored in Saints games this year is 56.1, so that may be conservative. Start your Raiders. ... Denarius Moore's route tree continues to expand. Strictly an "X-iso" receiver who ran sideline fly patterns as a rookie, Moore now plays all across the formation and beat Ravens CB Corey Graham for a 30-yard touchdown on a slot route last week. Facing New Orleans' No. 31 pass defense, you could argue that Moore is a legit WR1 this week. ... Forced to compensate for no running game or defense on a weekly basis, Carson Palmer is on a statistical tear. No NFL quarterback has scored more fantasy points over the past five weeks. Palmer is interception prone as a passer who relies so heavily on timing routes, but he is painting box scores right now and should keep it up against the Saints.

Rotoworld passed along quotes from two prominent Raiders coaches last week stating the staff had no confidence in Taiwan Jones from ball-security and playbook-comprehension standpoints. Therefore, it should have come as no surprise that Jones barely played at Baltimore. Jones was in for six snaps, touched the ball three times, and can be dropped in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Marcel Reece was the Raiders' every-down back, starting the game, leading Oakland with 20 touches, and playing 58-of-75 snaps. Reece is a passing-game machine and now has 15 catches over the past two weeks. The Raiders project to throw a lot again in Week 11, so plug Reece into your lineup. ... Jeremy Stewart (14 snaps, 7 carries) is the change-up back, ahead of Jones. Stewart is a 5-foot-11, 217-pound plodding power back who went undrafted this April out of Stanford. ... Had he not suffered a right hamstring injury in practice this week, this matchup would have been right for Darrius Heyward-Bey to join the WR3 discussion. DHB is now shaping up as a game-time decision, and he's rarely played well at less than 100 percent. ... Brandon Myers has suffered four documented concussions over the past three and a half years, but somehow gained medical clearance to play one week after his latest. He must have a fast-healing brain. Myers is an appealing back-end TE1 because of how this game figures to play out. He's been Palmer's No. 2 option in the passing game all the season, behind only Moore and ahead of Heyward-Bey.

Friday Update: Heyward-Bey tweaked his hamstring in Wednesday's practice. He did not practice on Thursday or Friday, and coach Dennis Allen has deemed DHB a "game-time decision." If Heyward-Bey does not play, Derek Hagan would get the start at Z receiver with Rod Streater staying in the slot and playing only on passing downs. Hagan would be the superior fallback fantasy option, should Heyward-Bey miss the game against the Saints.

Score Prediction: Saints 35, Raiders 28

1:00PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Detroit

The absence of All-Pro OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring) will have a major, negative impact on Green Bay's defense, and it's not to be underestimated. Matthews is an every-snap difference maker, collapsing the pocket relentlessly and drawing double and triple teams when he doesn't, making life easier on his teammates. Likely to operate in clean quarters Sunday, Matthew Stafford is a top-four fantasy quarterback play. ... The Packers-Lions over-under stands at 52 points, which is the third highest scoring projection of the week but still seems conservative. At domed Ford Field, this game has pass-happy shootout written all over it. ... In case you forgot: Calvin Johnson is the league's best wideout both in real life and fantasy. He's on pace to lead the NFL in receiving yards for the second straight year. Tramon Williams is no match for him, evidenced by Megatron’s combined 15-293-2 line in two 2011 matchups with Williams’ coverage. ... Although game-by-game consistency will likely remain an issue, Titus Young is a top-ten fantasy receiver over the past three weeks and a recommended, high-upside WR3 against the Packers. ... Stafford's target distribution since Nate Burleson suffered a year-ending injury in Week 7: Megatron 29, Brandon Pettigrew and Young 21, Joique Bell 16, Tony Scheffler and Ryan Broyles 12, Mikel Leshoure 10.

What Pettigrew lacks in big-play ability (sub-10 yards per catch, two TDs in nine games) he can sometimes make up for with volume. Although never an upside play, Pettigrew is on the back-end TE1 radar against Green Bay. ... While it isn't out of the question that Broyles could prove a worthwhile WR3 play if this game evolves into a shootout, the ball simply isn't traveling his way enough for confident fantasy usage. Playing under 50 percent of the snaps, Broyles is a high-risk, low-reward option. He was targeted once in Week 10. ... Scheffler is a rotational player and clear-cut TE2. ... The Packers rank tenth against the run, but Matthews' loss will be felt on the ground, too. Pro Football Focus has graded Matthews as a top-eight run defender among 3-4 outside linebackers. It typically pays to start goal-line backs in high-scoring affairs -- when they aren't Michael Turner, at least -- and Leshoure has a stranglehold on red-zone carries in the Detroit offense. Shake off Leshoure's disappointing Week 10 game at Minnesota and start him versus the Packers. ... Bell is just a change-of-pace runner behind Leshoure and won't rack up rushing attempts unless Detroit is blowing out its opponent. We saw it last week against the Vikings: Bell had one carry as Minnesota grabbed an early lead and controlled the game. Bell has more value in PPR leagues, as he's emerged as the Lions' primary passing-down back. Bell still shouldn't appeal to fantasy owners much. He's more of a bench stash who could become start-able if Leshoure suffered an injury.

"He's sort of become a featured receiver," NFL Films guru Greg Cosell observed of Randall Cobb on Adam Caplan's Week 11 preview podcast. "He's been used effectively as a movable chess piece." Per ESPN Stats & Info, Aaron Rodgers has completed 78.9 percent of his pass attempts to Cobb this season. It's the most efficient clip of any quarterback-receiver duo in the game, 50-throw minimum. There are only four wideouts in the NFL who I think are better Week 11 fantasy starts than Cobb: Megatron, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, and Roddy White. ... Rodgers has owned the Lions in his career. Rodgers' stats in the six games he's played start to finish against Detroit: 136-of-195 (69.7 percent) for 1,830 yards (9.38 YPA), and a 16:3 TD-to-INT ratio. He's also never faced the Lions when they've been this banged up in the secondary. Anticipate a big game. ... The Week 10 bye appears to have done wonders for Jordy Nelson's hamstring and ankle injuries; the Packers practiced four times this week and he participated in all four. You might want to play Nelson against a Lions defense missing 3-of-4 defensive back starters. ... James Jones has seven touchdowns over his last six games. He has emerged this season as Green Bay's best pure red-zone receiver and remains an every-week WR3, even with Nelson healthy.

Jermichael Finley has not scored a touchdown since Week 1, and he's failed to top 60 yards all season. He's the No. 25 fantasy tight end and little more than a bye-week fill-in until he starts putting something, anything in the box score. ... Cedric Benson (foot sprain) is tentatively expected back in Week 14. Green Bay's backfield is likely to be a fantasy quagmire until then. Plodder James Starks will be the primary early-down back. Alex Green will be the change-of-pace runner and play in the no-huddle offense. John Kuhn returns from a hamstring injury to retake the third-down job, and he may also swipe goal-line carries. It's a situation to avoid in fantasy leagues, even in a possible high-scoring game. I suppose Starks would be the best bet because he's likely to receive the most rushing attempts, but he is no longer trusted in the passing game and is unlikely to score touchdowns. No, thanks.

Score Prediction: Packers 33, Lions 28

Arizona @ Atlanta

Arizona's No. 2-ranked unit will be the third top-ten pass defense Matt Ryan has faced this year. Ryan carved up the other two for a combined 47-of-65 passing (72.3 percent), 641 yards (9.86 YPA), four all-purpose touchdowns, and zero turnovers. The No. 3 fantasy passer through ten weeks, there's every reason to believe Ryan is matchup proof. ... Ray Horton's Arizona defense is a blitz-happy group that ranks fourth in sacks and forces opposing quarterbacks to turn to "hot" receivers when a free blitzer comes unblocked. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez are Ryan's most frequent hot reads. I like White's chances of leading the Falcons in Week 11 receiving. ... Ryan's target distribution since Atlanta's Week 7 bye: White 27, Gonzalez 25, Julio Jones 16, Jacquizz Rodgers 14, Harry Douglas 9, Michael Turner 4. ... Although Jones' target numbers seem low, he's compensated with incredible efficiency, securing 14-of-16 for 327 yards and a touchdown over the last three games. He's chipped in two rushes for 17 additional yards. Jones is a locked-in, every-week WR1, but I think he'll have the most difficult Week 11 matchup of Atlanta's pass catchers. While Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson has not emerged as a shutdown corner this season, he's the best Arizona can do. And I think he will shadow Jones' footsteps in this game.

Friday Update: The Falcons held Jones out of practice each day this week with an ankle injury, and he's listed as questionable for Week 11. Jones did return after tweaking the ankle in last week's loss to New Orleans, and that's usually a pretty good indication that a player will play in the following game. I think it's also natural to wonder if the Falcons may believe they can defeat the Cardinals at home without Jones. The good news is Arizona-Atlanta has a 1:00PM ET start, and we'll know Jones' status early. Harry Douglas would start at X receiver if Jones were scratched.

An ageless Gonzalez is on pace for a career-high 109 receptions, and to tie his career high for touchdowns (11). He also leads all tight ends in yards. Gonzo has been the single biggest steal of fantasy drafts. His final ADP was the ninth round, and he's had a second-round impact. ... Turner has hurt owners who started him in three of his past four games. He's managed 209 yards on his last 70 carries (2.99 YPC), becoming increasingly prone to stuffs at the line of scrimmage. The potentially Calais Campbell-less Cardinals rank 24th in run defense, and game flow figures to allow the Falcons to rack up Week 11 rushing attempts. At the same time, Turner is battling a groin injury of his own. He had surgery on the same area two offseasons ago and is a hit-or-miss flex play at this point. ... Quizz Rodgers isn't the answer for Atlanta's feature back woes, and he's not getting the ball enough for fantasy start-ability. Rodgers is averaging nine touches for 65 scoreless yards in three games since the Week 7 bye. He has one touchdown on the year. Just a pace-change and passing-down back, Quizz would need a serious Turner injury or outright benching in order to reach reliable flex status. He's not a Week 11 fantasy option.

Arizona returns from its Week 10 bye counting on seventh-round rookie Nate Potter to stabilize John Skelton's blindside protection. Perhaps it’ll be an upgrade on turnstile journeyman D'Anthony Batiste, but Falcons RE John Abraham will still make mince meat out of Potter at the Georgia Dome. Atlanta's defense is merely average -- and a potential Achilles' heel for the team's Super Bowl prospects -- but Arizona's offense is much worse. Start the Falcons' fantasy DEF and don't look for any sudden post-bye fireworks from Skelton. ... In addition to the Potter promotion, the Cardinals made some lineup changes during their open date. Another was elevating first-round pick Michael Floyd to third receiver, in place of Early Doucet. Andre Roberts will now play slot receiver in Arizona's three-wide offense, with Floyd at Z and Larry Fitzgerald at X. While Floyd will remain an undesirable re-draft receiver option moving forward, his progress is worth monitoring for keeper league owners. Whereas Justin Blackmon is stuck in slow motion, Floyd has gotten better on a weekly basis this year.

Skelton's target distribution since replacing Kevin Kolb (ribs) in Week 7: Fitz 30, Roberts 27, Rob Housler 21, Floyd 19, Doucet 14, La'Rod Stephens-Howling 13. ... Inconsistency is inevitable for any receiver dealing with poor quarterback play, but Fitzgerald maintains every-week WR2 value as the featured player in the Cardinals' offense. He's on pace for 91 catches, 1,040 yards, and seven touchdowns. ... Roberts is the No. 21 fantasy receiver through nine weeks. While he doesn't figure to find pay dirt at as high a rate down the stretch, Roberts has earned weekly WR3/4 consideration. He consistently sees seven-plus targets a game and is an every-down receiver in an offense that frequently plays from behind. ... Leave out Stephens-Howling's 20-104-1 Week 7 game, where the Vikings openly admitted they let Arizona run on them, and he has 48 carries for 80 yards on the season. It's a 1.67 YPC average. Stephens-Howling cannot run between the tackles, and Beanie Wells will retake Arizona's backfield reins in Week 12. If you're not going to play Stephens-Howling in your fantasy league this week -- and I'd encourage you not to -- he's worth dropping for a stretch-run "stash" running back with some upside. ... Housler's role has also grown in the offense and he should stay on the mid-range to high-end TE2 radar in the final seven games. He isn't a fantasy starter because he's not scoring touchdowns.

Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Cardinals 10

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

"He's gotten much better reading coverage and taking what the defense is giving him," said NFL Films' Greg Cosell of Josh Freeman this week. "In other words, if he drops back and a first read is taken away, he's now more comfortably and quickly understanding where the second read is. And you know where that's really noticeable? In the red zone." Per Cosell, Freeman has thrown more red-zone touchdowns through nine games than he did all of last season. With a 13:1 TD-to-INT ratio, Freeman is also the No. 2 fantasy quarterback over the last five weeks. Start him as a QB1 against Carolina's 16th-ranked pass defense. ... Vincent Jackson was held in check (4-47) during Tampa's Week 1 matchup with Carolina primarily because the Bucs' coaching staff didn't trust its passing game yet. Tampa Bay finished that contest with a 36:24 run-to-pass ratio. Times have changed. While the Bucs remain a philosophically run-based team, they're also fielding one of the most explosive vertical passing attacks in football these days. V-Jax is the No. 5 overall fantasy wide receiver. On pace for 1,367 yards and 11 touchdowns, he needs to be in lineups at Carolina.

I encouraged you to tread lightly on Mike Williams in Week 10 -- he finished with two catches for 64 scoreless yards -- but I think he needs to be started as a WR3 this week. The Panthers are weak at corner and safety, and there's every reason to expect Freeman to tag them with bomb shots in this matchup. ... Carolina's 16th-ranked run defense has stiffened in recent games, but red-hot Doug Martin has flashed matchup-proof ability, due to workload and individual talent. Even in a relative down Week 10 game against San Diego's No. 2 run defense, Martin received 22 touches and piled up 119 yards. Martin has at least 100 total yards and/or a touchdown in five straight games. He totaled 118 in the aforementioned Week 1 meeting and is a legit RB1. ... Non-factor LeGarrette Blount has fallen to third on the depth chart in Tampa Bay's backfield, playing behind both Martin and D.J. Ware. Blount played one snap in last week's win over San Diego, and rushed once for three yards. He's not even an effective handcuff for Martin owners anymore.

Cosell's take on the Panthers' backfield: "Good running backs are rhythm guys. They need to get into the flow of the game. You can't have a consistent run game when your back doesn't know if he's gonna get the ball." Carolina's refusal to commit to Jonathan Stewart -- or even DeAngelo Williams, for that matter -- combined with playcaller Rob Chudzinski's insistence on using read-option plays where the tailback may or may not carry the football, depending on Cam Newton's decision, have both contributed. The Panthers' rushing offense has plummeted from third in the NFL last season to 15th in 2012. Refreshingly, Week 11 is an opportunity to write off Panthers backs entirely in fantasy lineup decisions. The Bucs rank No. 1 against the run and allow a league-low 3.50 yards per carry. ... Newton stands a disappointing 14th in fantasy quarterback scoring through nine games, but he passed for 303 yards with a 69.7 completion rate against the Bucs in Week 1, and Tampa's pass defense is worse now, having lost top CB Aqib Talib (trade) and top pass rusher Adrian Clayborn (ACL). RCB Eric Wright has also been unable to finish recent games due to a painful Achilles' injury. Lofty preseason expectations should've been reset for Newton some weeks ago, but Cam is a mid-range to low-end QB1 in this game. The Buccaneers rank dead last against the pass, and Cam always offers plenty of upside.

The Wright injury and Talib trade have stripped the Bucs of any prayer they may have had to stop Steve Smith. Shake off Smith's slow Week 10 game against Champ Bailey and start him in this picturesque matchup. Smith whipped Tampa for 106 yards on seven receptions in the Week 1 meeting, and this one has bounce-back game written all over it. ... The Bucs have allowed the tenth most fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Finding his groove, Greg Olsen has moved to No. 6 overall in fantasy scoring at his position with a career-best 77-catch, 884-yard, six-touchdown pace. Tampa Bay poses very little pass-rush threat -- Greg Schiano's defense stuffs the run but ranks 27th in sacks -- so Olsen should be freed up to run plenty of pass routes. ... Brandon LaFell has cleared 55 receiving yards once in his last six games. LaFell may have flirted with the breakout season some projected this year had Newton taken a step forward as a passer. Newton has not. LaFell has a great Week 11 matchup, but he's no more than a low-end WR3.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Bucs 23

Cleveland @ Dallas

Turnover free and completing 72.1 percent of his throws over the past two weeks, Tony Romo is playing efficient football entering a Week 11 date with Cleveland's No. 22 pass defense. Romo's schedule sets up for a potential stretch-run roll. Five of Dallas' final seven games are against pass defenses ranked 18th or worse, with Pittsburgh (Week 15) and Philadelphia (Week 13) as the two outliers. And the Eagles are far more burnable in the back end than their No. 12 ranking suggests. Five of Romo's next six games are indoors at Cowboys Stadium. With all of his weapons healthy, consider Romo a quality QB1 streamer going forward. ... The Cowboys surprisingly opted against attacking Nnamdi Asomugha in Week 10 -- targeting him just once -- but Dez Bryant still came away with 87 yards and a touchdown. It will be interesting to see whether the Browns stick top CB Joe Haden on Bryant or Miles Austin this week. Haden's natural position is left corner, which is the side of the field against which Austin runs the majority of his routes. Austin also has more yards than Dez over the past month. If Haden doesn't shadow him, Bryant will draw 33-year-old RCB Sheldon Brown in coverage. Fantasy owners' best approach is to simply start both. Bryant is the No. 11 fantasy wideout over the last five weeks. Austin is No. 17. Haden missed practice time with a painful oblique injury this week, so his receiver assignment may not have an impact anyway.

Friday Update: Haden missed Friday's practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Coach Pat Shurmur confirmed Haden will make the team flight to Dallas, but his status won't be determined until just before game time. Even if Haden starts, he may not play at as high a level as he's capable due to the injury. Haden struggled mightily trying to play hurt in the second half of last season.

Kevin Ogletree's playing time continues to dwindle due to on-field errors. He's gone catch-less in three of his last five games. Ogletree wasn't even targeted in Week 10 and can be dropped in all leagues. ... Romo's target distribution since Dallas' Week 5 bye: Jason Witten 55, Austin 43, Bryant 38, Felix Jones 18, Ogletree 17. ... Witten's total is skewed a bit by his 22-target Week 8 game, but there's clearly been an increased emphasis on getting him the ball after a slow start. While the Browns have defended tight ends well (30th in fantasy points allowed), Witten remains a mid-range TE1 with at least six receptions in six consecutive games. ... Despite Felix Jones' recent struggles, the Cowboys made a Week 10 commitment to the running game and executed in a 38-23 thrashing of Philadelphia. Running the football eight times on their opening, 13-play touchdown drive, Dallas used Jones as the lead back and Lance Dunbar as an explosive change of pace. Coming away with 93 yards and a touchdown on 19 touches, Jones ran with increased confidence and burst, and is back in the flex-play mix against Cleveland's No. 27 run defense. Jones has not been a favorite in this space previously, but credit where it's due: Felix has put together 97 yards on his last 20 carries (4.85 YPC), and his skill level has never been an issue.

The Cowboys' No. 13 run defense ranking looks formidable on paper, but they're a group to target in stretch-run fantasy lineup decisions. Run-stopping LE Kenyon Coleman tore his triceps last week, joining ILB Sean Lee as core front-seven defenders on injured reserve. Overcoming his knee and rib injuries after a Week 10 bye, Trent Richardson's physicality, lateral moves, and acceleration should all be in optimal form. A legit RB1, Richardson will give Doug Martin a run for his money as top rookie back in the final seven games. ... The Browns must lean on Richardson to stay competitive. Seventh against the pass and allowing just one passing score per game, Rob Ryan's defense will make life difficult on rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. After flashing some early-season promise, Weeden has come back to Earth, completing just 32 of his last 68 throws (47.1 percent) for 313 yards (4.60 YPA) and a 0:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Until Weeden picks it back up, Browns pass catchers are going to be difficult to trust in fantasy. ... Weeden will surely take shots downfield to Josh Gordon on Sunday -- he always does -- but the supplemental rookie receiver seems to have topped out as a boom-or-bust WR3 gamble, due in large part to his limited route tree. Gordon rarely gets the ball in the short and intermediate sections. He hasn't caught more than three passes in any game this year. ... Greg Little is the only other Cleveland skill-position player worth fantasy consideration, and he offers scant upside. Little has cleared 60 receiving yards in just 1-of-9 games this season, and this will be his toughest matchup to date.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Browns 16

Philadelphia @ Washington

Nick Foles will likely be Philly's starting quarterback for the remainder of the season, with Michael Vick nursing a "significant" concussion. "I think the one thing that stands out about Foles, which is a real positive, is he's got a pretty good sense of timing and anticipation," NFL Films' Greg Cosell opined this week. "And he's also got some movement ability within the pocket. He actually has much better pocket movement than Vick." Foles' ability to slide around and away from oncoming rushers would come in awfully handy behind the Eagles' turnstile O-Line. He's a lock to have open receivers against a miserable Redskins secondary on Sunday, and offers some upside as a two-QB league play. ... Although the notion that tight ends are rookie quarterbacks' "security blankets" is largely mythical, Brent Celek is an interesting Week 11 fantasy option. Slot receiver Jason Avant's (hamstring) will free up underneath targets for Celek, and the Skins have permitted the most catches and yards to tight ends. ... Washington ranks 30th in pass defense and has allowed an NFL-high 20 passing touchdowns through nine games. The installation of a rookie quarterback seemingly makes Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson riskier plays, but they both have terrific Week 11 matchups and offer too much upside to leave on the bench in three-receiver leagues.

Coach Andy Reid's offensive philosophy has and will continue to be passing based. But he's also been a believer in bringing young QBs slowly along. When Donovan McNabb was a rookie, Reid had him literally alternate with veteran journeyman Doug Pederson, often trading off series. At least initially, I'd look for Philadelphia to lean heavily on LeSean McCoy and rookie change-up back Bryce Brown. Washington has been tagged by Steelers, Giants, Vikings, and Panthers backs for 403 yards and four touchdowns on 87 carries (4.63 YPC) over its last four games. So this is a running-friendly matchup and great opportunity to feature a rushing attack that can be as efficient on a per-touch basis as any. McCoy is a locked-in top-five running back play in Week 11. Offering as much upside as any stretch-run "stash,” Brown should be owned in all leagues. ... Riley Cooper will replace Avant as the Eagles' third receiver against the Redskins. He came off the bench to catch two balls for 24 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, and has some red-zone chops. Cooper would still need a D-Jax or Maclin injury to be a standard-league option.

Philly opened the year playing run-tough defense. The unit has taken a step back. New Orleans and Dallas' left-for-dead run games have peeled off 243 yards and a score on 48 carries (5.06 YPC) against the Eagles the past two weeks. The Redskins rank second in the NFL in rushing offense, and this is a favorable matchup for Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III. Both rookies slumped a bit before Washington's Week 10 bye. ... Pierre Garcon will apparently attempt to play through the torn plantar plate in his right second toe, a painful injury that has sidelined Garcon since early October. There is no telling how many snaps Garcon will play, or whether he'll be effective. His return will also cut into the playing time and/or targets of Josh Morgan, Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, and Aldrick Robinson, essentially rendering the Washington receiver corps hands-off for Week 11 fantasy lineup decisions. There's just no clarity in terms of roles. The Redskins rank third-to-last in pass attempts in the first place. So there are a ton of mouths to feed with scant volume to be spread around. ... Logan Paulsen has been Washington's every-down tight end since Fred Davis tore his Achilles' in Week 7. With the Redskins now returning from an open date, it will be (slightly) interesting to see whether Chris Cooley has been made a bigger part of the offense. Paulsen can block, but offers very little in the passing game.

Score Prediction: Redskins 27, Eagles 20

NY Jets @ St. Louis

"He has been wildly inaccurate," ESPN's Ron Jaworski observed of Mark Sanchez this week. "I am concerned about him right now." Sanchez has reached the point that he's at risk of in-game benching, regardless of what Rex Ryan says in weekly press conferences. It's time for the Jets to turn to Tim Tebow. In Sanchez's last 16 starts, he's posted a 6.04 yards-per-attempt average and 25:25 TD-to-turnover ratio with a 6-10 record. In Tebow's 16 career starts, his YPA stands at 7.10 with 26 touchdowns and 15 turnovers. Tebow has gone 9-7. And those numbers fail to account for Tebow's impact as a runner. Sanchez is over halfway through his fourth NFL season, and he's not getting any better. He is getting worse. Tebow isn't a long-term solution, either, but he is the Jets' best option at this moment in time. Only stubbornness is keeping him out of the starting lineup. ... St. Louis is playing top-13 pass defense and gets back rookie RCB Janoris Jenkins from disciplinary suspension this week. This game's real mismatch will occur between Rams LE Chris Long and Jets RT Austin Howard. Proving himself not remotely the answer in the post-Wayne Hunter era, Howard ranks 63rd among 70 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' offensive tackle pass-blocking rankings. Howie's son is PFF's No. 4 overall 4-3 pass-rushing end. Long should eat Howard alive.

The Jets have been outscored 62-7 with no touchdowns produced by the offense in two previous NFC West matchups this year. More tough sledding is likely at the Edward Jones Dome. A slot and Z receiver, Jeremy Kerley will have his hands full with Rams slot CB Cortland Finnegan and LCB Bradley Fletcher. Fletcher has been one of the NFL's most underrated defenders in 2012. ... St. Louis ranks 18th against the run and has surrendered ten rushing touchdowns through nine games. Shonn Greene is the worst starting running back in football, but always a safe bet for 15-plus carries and this is a favorable matchup. He's worth a look as a low-upside flex play. ... Dustin Keller is coming off an abysmal game (multiple penalties, dropped pass, 47 yards on five targets), but he’s the most attractive Week 11 fantasy option among Jets skill-position players. St. Louis has allowed the ninth most receptions and 12th most yards to tight ends. Keller has 23 targets over his last three games, and his foot speed can give the Rams' safeties problems down the seam. ... Stephen Hill started last week's loss to the Seahawks, but was a non-factor. He saw two targets and failed to secure either. Hill has gone catch-less in three of his seven appearances this year.

Danny Amendola has lasted all four quarters in five games this season. He's seen no fewer than nine targets in all of them, averaging 8.4 receptions for 90.6 yards per game. Amendola is such a featured part of new Rams playcaller Brian Schottenheimer's offense that he's reached every-week WR3 status in standard leagues. He was already a WR2 in PPR. New York uses easy-to-burn Ellis Lankster at slot corner in nickel packages, and Amendola can burn him up. Jets top CB Antonio Cromartie is a perimeter cover guy, so I don't think we'll see him shadow Amendola in this game. ... The rest of St. Louis' pass catchers are either bench or waiver-wire fodder. Chris Givens was suspended in Week 10 for skipping practice, and his offensive role is unclear with Amendola healthy. He was starting in Amendola's place. Givens should theoretically be the third receiver, playing outside opposite Brandon Gibson in three-wide sets, but there are no guarantees under a head coach in Jeff Fisher who's running a tight ship. Givens isn't a fantasy option until we see him reestablish a role and put something in the box score. ... Because Amendola is such a target hog, his return also affects Gibson's production. Gibson's average stat line in Amendola's five healthy games is 3-40 on five targets. His statistical ceiling is too low for fantasy football consideration.

Sam Bradford turned in one of the best games of his career in last week's tie at San Francisco. He'll now face the Jets' No. 6 pass defense. Bradford has been too up and down to trust beyond two-QB leagues, but he certainly seems to be trending in the right direction. ... Steven Jackson will be the premier fantasy play on either side in this game, facing a Jets defense that ranks 30th versus the run and has permitted the fourth most rushing scores in the league. It's been noted in this space all year that Jackson is running much better than his stats suggest, and that couldn't have been more evident last week. Jackson jackhammered the Niners' top-seven run defense for 127 total yards and a touchdown, ripping off chain-moving run after chain-moving run. The Jets are coming off a road game in which Seattle rammed 174 rushing yards and 43 rushing attempts down their throat. They may be a bit worn out. Start Jackson as a strong RB2. ... I know it's been suggested that S-Jax might dominate St. Louis' backfield over Daryl Richardson with the trade deadline having passed, but I wouldn't be so sure. Richardson is a critical piece of the Rams' offense as an in-space back who exploits the defensive edges with blazing speed. Richardson received eight touches in Week 10, and has 223 yards on his last 33 carries (6.76 YPC). He's just a change-of-pace runner, but one of the better ones in the league. Richardson is not going away.

Score Prediction: Rams 23, Jets 17

Cincinnati @ Kansas City

Although they wound up losing in overtime, last Monday night's clash with Pittsburgh provided a tantalizing glimpse of the team Kansas City was built to be. Rather than play from behind all game -- as they've done all year -- the Chiefs grabbed an early, 10-0 lead, played effective defense, and leaned on Jamaal Charles en route to 100 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. Playcaller Brian Daboll still wasted ten runs on black-hole back Peyton Hillis, but Charles' effort was a reminder that he can control a game when utilized properly. And if Daboll intends to salvage his resume with some second-half wins, his best player will continue to handle the ball 20-plus times a week. The Bengals rank 20th in run defense and have allowed ten rushing TDs through nine games, so this is a quality matchup for Charles. ... Looking more and more like an offseason free-agent bust, a thoroughly ineffective Hillis has managed 46 yards on his last 18 carries (2.56 YPC), appearing so plodding on the field that it's debatable whether he'd be a fantasy asset even if Charles got hurt. ... Tony Moeaki flashed his potential on a 38-yard gain down the sideline in the Steelers loss. He's still gone 14 games without a touchdown. Moeaki is waiver-wire fodder in fantasy leagues.

The Chiefs' quarterback in any given week doesn't matter a whole lot for Dwayne Bowe, even if Matt Cassel has been slightly better at getting him the football than Brady Quinn. Inconsistency is unavoidable for Kansas City's top receiver in a thoroughly unreliable passing game. Bowe also didn't help himself last Monday night, dropping two balls. Sunday's matchup with Bengals RCB Leon Hall isn't overly unattractive, but Bowe is a coin-flip WR3 at this point. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 4, averaging five catches for 57 yards over his last five games. ... Jon Baldwin has looked like a 2011 first-round draft bust in his second season and exited the Monday nighter with a third-quarter head injury. He won't play against the Bengals. Neither Baldwin nor backup Steve Breaston is worth owning in 12- or 14-team leagues. ... Dexter McCluster has teased twice this season with productive games: In Week 1 (6-82) and Week 8 (6-54-1). McCluster has four receptions for 35 yards combined the past two weeks. He's a non-factor both in real life and fantasy.

A matchup with Kansas City's defense is ripe A.J. Green's picking. Even after cutting RCB Stanford Routt midseason, the Chiefs have refused to use Brandon Flowers against enemy No. 1 receivers. Flowers remains entrenched at left corner, and actually wound up covering Emmanuel Sanders more than Mike Wallace in last Monday's loss. Green can blow apart RCB fill-ins Jalil Brown and Javier Arenas. ... The Chiefs have surrendered an 18:6 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing quarterbacks, and allow both the highest passer rating (102.1) and yards-per-pass-attempt average (8.4) in the AFC. This is a bad defense. Andy Dalton typically lights up bad defenses, so he's on the back-end QB1 radar coming off a four-touchdown game. ... Instead of promoting Andrew Hawkins, the Bengals have demoted Armon Binns out of their No. 2 receiver rotation. It's now a mixture of Brandon Tate and rookie Mohamed Sanu, and Sanu came away from Week 10 with four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown on six targets. Sanu played off the bench and saw 37-of-60 snaps, per Pro Football Focus. Sanu is not a trustworthy Week 11 fantasy option, but his stock is clearly on the rise. He has big, strong hands and operates comfortably in traffic.

Friday Update: Hawkins injured his knee in Friday's practice and was added to the injury report as questionable. Already an underutilized player, the in-practice injury should delete Hawkins from Week 11 fantasy consideration.

Jermaine Gresham has at least a touchdown and/or 60 yards in four of his last five games and is the No. 11 fantasy tight end through ten weeks. Although Gresham is a stiff route runner lacking dynamic physical tools, the ball is thrown in his direction enough to be a bottom-barrel fantasy starter. Dynasty leaguers should consider selling Gresham after the year if this production keeps up. He'll never be a difference maker. ... BenJarvus Green-Ellis' rushing attempts have dropped in three straight games, and the Bengals tried to get Cedric Peerman (six carries, 21 yards) more involved last week. The coaches are aware that Law Firm is hamstringing the offense. Kansas City ranks 23rd in run defense and typically presents a favorable matchup for opposing backs. Green-Ellis is just so short on talent that he's difficult to trust as more than a low-upside flex.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Chiefs 20

Jacksonville @ Houston

Blaine Gabbert has faced the Texans three times in his career, and you won't be surprised to recall that the results are ugly. Gabbert has completed 30-of-78 passes (38.5 percent) for 286 yards (3.67 YPA), two touchdowns, and three interceptions against Houston. He's absorbed 10 sacks. Be wary of Jags pass catchers in this game, and fire up Houston's fantasy defense. ... It's difficult to imagine the Jaguars moving the ball in Week 11. The Texans' No. 3 run defense has been particularly stout versus inside runners, and that's the type of back Rashad Jennings is. With a pathetic 178 yards on his last 64 carries (2.78 YPC), Jennings would be a stretch even as a flex play. Despite generous workloads, Jennings has played his way out of fantasy relevance. ... Top Texans CB Johnathan Joseph figures to match up with Cecil Shorts on the majority of Sunday's snaps. Since an injury-related bumpy start to the season, Pro Football Focus has charted Joseph with 15 completions allowed on 30 passes thrown into his coverage (50 percent) for just 175 yards (5.83 YPA), with no touchdowns and an interception over the past three games. This is a poor matchup for Shorts. ... X receiver Laurent Robinson should avoid Joseph and is the best play in Jacksonville's wideout group this week, even if he's not a great one. Robinson has at least nine targets in consecutive games. ... Justin Blackmon can't get open, and it continues to show up in the box score. He's averaging under ten yards per catch with one touchdown across nine starts.

Coach Gary Kubiak recently suggested early-season fantasy disappointment Andre Johnson is just beginning to round into form, following a lost offseason due to knee surgery. Johnson finished last Sunday night's win over the Bears with a modest 4-35 stat line, but he looked better on the field than the stats indicate. "Andre Johnson looked like one of the elite wide receivers, looked very, very explosive on a muddy track," ESPN's Cris Carter stated this week. "You could tell his legs are starting to get back under him." With double-digit targets in four straight games, Johnson can flirt with WR1 value again. ... The Jaguars rank 23rd versus the pass and last in sacks. While Matt Schaub's fantasy upside is always capped by Houston's run-dominant offensive design, he should have open receivers Sunday and is a worthwhile two-QB league start. Schaub will operate in a clean pocket. ... Owen Daniels was close to playing in last Sunday night's win at Chicago and returned to practice this week. The fact that Jacksonville has surrendered the fewest fantasy points to tight ends can break lineup ties if owners are loaded at the position, but Daniels is a top-four scorer in points per game. Only Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Tony Gonzalez are ahead of him. Fantasy leaguers ought to be hard pressed to leave Daniels on the bench.

In five career meetings with the Jaguars, Arian Foster has accumulated 523 yards on 129 carries (4.05 YPC) and six TDs. He's caught 17 balls for 87 more yards. While the per-play averages suggest Jacksonville has held Foster in check, it's a reminder that monster workloads carry bellcow backs through tough times. Foster is averaging over 29 touches per game against the Jags. ... On pace for a pedestrian 41-600-4 stat line, Kevin Walter is primarily a downfield run blocker in Houston's offense. He's the No. 60 fantasy receiver and unworthy of a roster spot in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Don't overthink Ben Tate. While it's great news that he's back from the hamstring strain and will have stretch-run value as a high-upside roster stash in the event of a Foster injury, Tate hasn't played in nearly a month and isn't worth a flex play gamble. Let's see Tate play well in a football game again before counting on him for garbage-time carries. ... Justin Forsett did a great job filling in for Tate, but he'll resume third-string status this week and can be dropped in standard fantasy leagues. Forsett gets an outgoing butt-pat for averaging 4.67 yards per carry.

Friday Update: Tate experienced a setback during the practice week and has been ruled out for Week 11. So Forsett will continue to operate as Foster's ball-carrying caddy. Forsett isn't a fantasy option. Tate's recurring hamstring problems make him an increasingly less attractive "hold" in 10- and 12-team fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Texans 30, Jaguars 3

4:05PM ET Game

New Orleans @ Oakland

Joe Flacco only needed three quarters to shred the Raiders' defense for 341 yards and a hat trick of Week 10 touchdowns, so it's scary to think of what a red-hot Drew Brees might be capable. Compiling a 25:5 TD-to-INT ratio over his last seven games, Brees has the premier Week 11 fantasy matchup among QB1s. ... Oakland showed a particular vulnerability to tight ends in the Baltimore loss, as SLB Philip Wheeler was picked apart in pass coverage. Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson combined to secure 7-of-7 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown -- all in the first half. Jimmy Graham, step on up. ... While Marques Colston's yardage has slowed in recent weeks, end-zone trips are carrying him. He's found pay dirt seven times in his last six games. Colston (6'4/225) will give Raiders nickel corner Joselio Hanson (5'9/185) matchup nightmares in the slot in this game. ... Whenever Colston and Graham are healthy, Lance Moore is a game-specific contributor in New Orleans' offense, who can be productive if game flow and individual matchups allow. He can also be as low as the fourth option in the passing attack. It's a recipe for fantasy inconsistency. Moore’s snaps and targets have been up and down since Graham returned from an early-season ankle injury. Even in this favorable matchup, Moore is an unreliable WR3 play.

Moore started over Devery Henderson in last week's win over Atlanta. Dropping 1-of-2 targets, Henderson finished catch-less for the second time in three games. He's waiver-wire material. ... Over the past two weeks, New Orleans' backfield has shifted to Mark Ingram (25 touches) and Chris Ivory (19), and away from Pierre Thomas (14). While unexpected, it was the correct move by coach Joe Vitt. Though he lacks dynamic run skills, Ingram is a chain-moving sustainer back. Ivory is a ferocious runner who needs the ball. Thomas still played the most snaps, but primarily as a pass protector, and it's fair to wonder if Darren Sproles' return from hand surgery will all but weed Thomas out of the offense. ... Vitt went out of his way to praise Ivory -- the Saints' most gifted pure runner -- after a number of highlight-reel carries against the Falcons. "He's run over people since he's been here," Vitt said. "He's always looking to get extra yards. ... You saw him switch the ball into the proper hand when he finished his touchdown run. Those are the little things that he has really worked on to become a better player. It's fun to watch and we're proud of him." Ingram led the Saints in Week 10 carries, but Ivory is a candidate for an increased role against Oakland and a high-upside flex play. ... Sproles only averaged four carries per game before his injury, so he doesn't figure to affect the roles of early-down backs Ivory and Ingram much. Sproles was averaging six receptions, however, and should be plugged right back into PPR lineups.

Friday Update: Sproles seemed like a virtual lock to play in this game after returning to a full practice on Thursday, but he still has some swelling in the hand and will leave the decision to play up to team doctors. Due to this game's late start, this has become a situation to avoid in standard leagues. Sproles is worth waiting for in PPR leagues if you can "handcuff" him with a viable late-game alternative. Ingram and Ivory would be obvious choices.

The Vegas oddsmakers smartly place the highest over-under on Saints games every week. New Orleans' defense is a sieve, and Brees forces opponents to play aggressive offense for all four quarters. The New Orleans-Oakland score projection is a Week 11-high 54.5 points. The average points scored in Saints games this year is 56.1, so that may be conservative. Start your Raiders. ... Denarius Moore's route tree continues to expand. Strictly an "X-iso" receiver who ran sideline fly patterns as a rookie, Moore now plays all across the formation and beat Ravens CB Corey Graham for a 30-yard touchdown on a slot route last week. Facing New Orleans' No. 31 pass defense, you could argue that Moore is a legit WR1 this week. ... Forced to compensate for no running game or defense on a weekly basis, Carson Palmer is on a statistical tear. No NFL quarterback has scored more fantasy points over the past five weeks. Palmer is interception prone as a passer who relies so heavily on timing routes, but he is painting box scores right now and should keep it up against the Saints.

Rotoworld passed along quotes from two prominent Raiders coaches last week stating the staff had no confidence in Taiwan Jones from ball-security and playbook-comprehension standpoints. Therefore, it should have come as no surprise that Jones barely played at Baltimore. Jones was in for six snaps, touched the ball three times, and can be dropped in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Marcel Reece was the Raiders' every-down back, starting the game, leading Oakland with 20 touches, and playing 58-of-75 snaps. Reece is a passing-game machine and now has 15 catches over the past two weeks. The Raiders project to throw a lot again in Week 11, so plug Reece into your lineup. ... Jeremy Stewart (14 snaps, 7 carries) is the change-up back, ahead of Jones. Stewart is a 5-foot-11, 217-pound plodding power back who went undrafted this April out of Stanford. ... Had he not suffered a right hamstring injury in practice this week, this matchup would have been right for Darrius Heyward-Bey to join the WR3 discussion. DHB is now shaping up as a game-time decision, and he's rarely played well at less than 100 percent. ... Brandon Myers has suffered four documented concussions over the past three and a half years, but somehow gained medical clearance to play one week after his latest. He must have a fast-healing brain. Myers is an appealing back-end TE1 because of how this game figures to play out. He's been Palmer's No. 2 option in the passing game all the season, behind only Moore and ahead of Heyward-Bey.

Friday Update: Heyward-Bey tweaked his hamstring in Wednesday's practice. He did not practice on Thursday or Friday, and coach Dennis Allen has deemed DHB a "game-time decision." If Heyward-Bey does not play, Derek Hagan would get the start at Z receiver with Rod Streater staying in the slot and playing only on passing downs. Hagan would be the superior fallback fantasy option, should Heyward-Bey miss the game against the Saints.

Score Prediction: Saints 35, Raiders 28

4:25PM ET Games

San Diego @ Denver

The combined record of Denver's remaining seven opponents is 23-40 (.365). The Broncos have lit up recent box scores, and it's fair to wonder if the best is still to come. "Peyton Manning is getting more acclimated to his weapons," ESPN's Ron Jaworski said this week. "You see guys now being where they're supposed to be. The eye contact and movement. Just those little subtleties that are now starting to come." Manning turned in arguably the premier quarterback performance of 2012 in Denver's Week 6 comeback win over San Diego, marching his team back from a 24-0 halftime deficit on the back of 309 yards, three touchdowns, and 24-of-30 passing (80 percent). Manning is a top-five quarterback play in Week 11. ... Eric Decker shredded Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer for a 6-98-1 line in the Week 6 game and is the No. 11 overall fantasy wide receiver. There's every reason to believe Decker is capable of another big game. ... I still like Demaryius Thomas to pace Denver in Week 11 receiving. The Broncos' X receiver, Thomas gets a more favorable coverage draw against Bolts RCB Antoine Cason. Pro Football Focus grades Jammer as the NFL's No. 33 overall cover corner this year. Cason is 86th among 106 qualifiers.

Fantasy megabust TE Jacob Tamme hit rock bottom with one catch for six yards in Week 10. He played a season-low 21 snaps. Fantasy owners need to send Tamme to the waiver wire. ... Joel Dreessen is more of a blocking than receiving tight end, but at least he gets on the field. He's a low-end TE2. San Diego has permitted the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, so it isn't as if Dreessen or Tamme has a good matchup. ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley caught a touchdown pass in last week's win over Carolina, but he's averaging 37 yards a game. Let’s aim higher. ... Is Willis McGahee slowing down midway through his age-31 season? After averaging 4.74 yards a pop on his initial 68 rushing attempts, McGahee has slowed to 354 yards on his last 92 (3.85 YPC). Just keep in mind that this matchup should be slightly more favorable than San Diego's No. 2 run defense ranking suggests. Chargers NT Aubrayo Franklin is out with a bone bruise on his knee, and McGahee went for 98 total yards in these teams' Week 6 meeting. Still, McGahee is probably more of a mid-range to low-end RB2 than top-15 running back play.

Ryan Mathews turned in another mediocre fantasy performance (22 touches, 76 scoreless yards) in Week 10, which is what we've come to expect both from Mathews and all running backs facing the Bucs' No. 1 run defense. Forward-thinking fantasy owners look beyond the box score, though. Mathews unseated Ronnie Brown in the two-minute offense, and received four of the five red-zone touches in San Diego's backfield. Mathews is the No. 25 fantasy back in points per game; a low-end RB2/flex. With an increasing role in an offense finally moving the ball, however, Mathews will be difficult to keep out of fantasy lineups, even versus Denver's No. 10 run defense. Keep an eye on Mathews’ stiff neck. It kept him out of Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. ... Rebounding from a slow start, Antonio Gates has 15 receptions and four touchdowns over his last four games. He also touched up this same Broncos defense for a 6-81-2 stat line in Week 6. Denver has allowed the most fantasy points in football to tight ends, including a league-high eight scores. Gates looks like the strongest Week 11 fantasy play on San Diego's roster.

Friday Update: The Chargers got good news Friday when Mathews returned to practice. Although he is listed as questionable, comments from both coach Norv Turner and the running back himself indicate Mathews is on pace to play against the Broncos. Fantasy owners should still secure Jackie Battle as a potential game-day fallback option in case Mathews is a last-minute scratch. The game has a late start, after all. Battle would be the favorite for early-down and red-zone carries if Mathews missed the game. Ronnie Brown would be the passing-down back.

The primary reason for San Diego's Week 6 second-half meltdown was pass protection. A total inability to halt Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil's relentless outside-edge rush. LT Jared Gaither's (groin) absence didn't hinder San Diego's pass game much against Tampa's nonexistent pass rush last week, but it'll almost certainly rear its ugly head again versus a Broncos defense that leads the NFL in sacks. Gaither is listed as doubtful for Week 11, and I'd be awfully hard pressed to trust Philip Rivers as more than a low-end QB2 in this matchup. Rivers has been awful more often than not when undrafted rookie Mike Harris has attempted to "protect" his blindside. ... The Broncos shadowed Malcom Floyd with Champ Bailey for the majority of the Week 6 game. Floyd was held to 60 scoreless yards on five receptions, getting only 3-26 against Champ. Add in the threat of San Diego's passing attack being torpedoed if Denver's pass rushers take over this game, and Floyd isn't more than a back-end WR3 in Week 11. ... Danario Alexander is a better bet than Floyd this week because his matchup is so much more favorable. Alexander (6'5/217) will draw a combo of usual slot corner Chris Harris (5'10/190) and Tony Carter (5'9/175) in coverage. Clearly overtaking Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal for the Chargers' second receiver spot, Alexander can be more than just a one-week wonder. He dropped a 5-134-1 line on the Bucs last week, seeing seven targets and playing 59-of-66 snaps.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 17

Indianapolis @ New England

Andrew Luck is the No. 5 fantasy quarterback over the past five weeks and offers upside as a QB1 streamer against New England's No. 29 pass defense. "Halfway through his rookie season, I already believe (Luck) is in the top 7-8 quarterbacks in this league," NFL Network's Mike Mayock said last week. "He makes every throw. But it's not the physicality that separates him. It's the intangibles. He inhales film." Luck will see on film that the Pats have zero secondary continuity. They've tried five different players at the two safety spots through nine games, and will have a new starting cornerback Sunday when Aqib Talib likely takes over at LCB, pushing rookie Alfonzo Dennard to right corner and Kyle Arrington into the slot. Shredded by vertical and intermediate strikes, the Patriots' defense has allowed a league-high 47 completions of 20-plus yards. That plays directly into the hands of Colts playcaller Bruce Arians, who constantly schemes to push the ball downfield. ... New England's linebackers were exposed mightily by the Bills' offense in Week 10 pass coverage. Pedestrian talents TE Scott Chandler (5-65-1) and slot receiver Donald Jones (6-74-1) could be seen on tape running wide open down the seam. With Coby Fleener (shoulder) sidelined at least one more game, Dwayne Allen warrants legitimate TE1 consideration in such a fine Week 11 matchup. The Patriots allow the third most fantasy points in the league to tight ends.

Talib will eventually help New England's reeling back end, but his addition is not an immediate concern for Reggie Wayne. Suspended since October 13, Talib hasn't so much as practiced in over a month and is learning Bill Belichick's complex defense on the fly. In Talib's debut, he'll be prone to a busted coverage or two. Start Wayne as a WR1 in this potential shootout. ... Donnie Avery and rookie T.Y. Hilton are both playing well enough to be in the WR3 discussion. This game could turn pass-happy fast, and Hilton and Avery should both get open. Avery has 21 targets over the past three games. Hilton has 18. ... New England's No. 9 run defense sprung leaks in last week's win over Buffalo, as Chan Gailey effectively schemed C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson into space. Spiller and Jackson combined for 150 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries (6.0 YPC). Unfortunately, neither of the Colts' timeshare backs possesses the talent or run-friendly scheme the Bills backs enjoy. Aside from perhaps Luck's legs, the ground game is probably the least likely way the Colts will move the ball offensively in this game. Vick Ballard is just a flex option. Belichick's defenses have held Donald Brown to 123 yards on 35 carries (3.51 YPC) in their three career meetings. With an unreliable knee and scaled-back role, Brown isn't much of a Week 11 fantasy option.

With Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney finally healthy, Indy's defensive front seven will be at full strength for Sunday's clash with the Pats. Tom Brady can counteract edge rushers with a quick-hitting passing attack, however, and the Colts are injury riddled in the secondary. LCB Jerraud Powers (toe) hit injured reserve Monday, and RCB Vontae Davis (knee) remains out indefinitely. It's a group that can be picked on. ... Wes Welker is in the midst of a three-game scoring drought, but he's getting close. A would-be 34-yard touchdown pass rocketed through Welker's hands in the first quarter against Buffalo, and he continues to get open at will. Welker remains an every-week starter. ... Rob Gronkowski scored his fifth touchdown in the last three games versus the Bills and also drew a pass interference penalty to help set up Stevan Ridley's one-yard, first-quarter score. The Colts have defended tight ends stingily this year, but matchups don't matter for Gronk. On pace for 82 catches, 1,087 yards, and 15 TDs, he's the No. 1 overall fantasy tight end. ... Falling painfully short of preseason expectations, Brandon Lloyd is 40th in fantasy receiver scoring, settling in as just a WR3 option. The Patriots haven't stopped trying to get Lloyd the football, though. He drew a 38-yard pass interference flag on Bills RCB Stephon Gilmore in Week 10, setting up Gronkowski's late first-half touchdown. Lloyd secured 5-of-6 targets for 45 yards, with the only other misfire coming on an end-zone slant route that was batted away. Lloyd has a great Week 11 matchup in a likely high-scoring affair. Sit him against the Colts at your own risk.

I watched Pats-Bills on Tuesday of this week. Although Danny Woodhead finished with just five touches, he was a mismatch for Buffalo's linebackers in the nickel package and picked up 61 yards with two touchdowns. Woodhead's lone carry -- a 15-yard scoring run in the second quarter, came on a perfectly blocked play right off LG Logan Mankins' backside. Woodhead deserves credit for a nice game, but he's not going to be a consistent fantasy scorer as a passing-down specialist averaging seven touches over his past six games. He's a weak flex option. ... Ridley repeatedly broke off chunk-yardage runs against Buffalo and has caught fire again with 223 yards and two touchdowns on his last 35 carries (6.37 YPC). The Colts rank 22nd against the run and permit the fourth highest yards-per-carry average (4.69) in football. Keep rolling with Ridley as an RB1. ... Shane Vereen isn't a fantasy option, but he's a better handcuff for Ridley than Woodhead. Woodhead is entrenched as a passing-down back. Vereen would step in on early downs if Ridley got hurt. ... We should have a good read on Aaron Hernandez's (ankle) Week 11 availability by Sunday morning. He's a shoo-in fantasy starter if he plays. If he doesn't, avoid Visanthe Shiancoe and Daniel Fells. Shiancoe played eight snaps last week and was not targeted. Fells was a healthy scratch.

Friday Update: NFL Network's Albert Breer reported Friday that Hernandez will not play against the Colts. The Patriots may be targeting Thanksgiving night against the Jets for Hernandez's return. If you're looking for a tight end fallback option, Dwayne Allen in this same game has an awfully attractive matchup, as explained above.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 27

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Fantasy owners should brace themselves for Ben Roethlisberger (shoulder, rib) to miss significant time. ESPN's Bob Holtzman suggested on SportsCenter Wednesday that Big Ben might not return for six weeks. The impact on Pittsburgh's offense threatens to be dramatic. "So many of the Steelers' points come from Ben playing beyond the Xs and Os," Trent Dilfer stated this week. "Generating offense on his own. Without him, I think they're gonna have a very hard time scoring points." Todd Haley will have to remake his offense on the fly. Byron Leftwich's cement feet and rotary-phone delivery will force Pittsburgh to scrap its completion-friendly, pass-first offense, likely in favor of a run-based approach that takes intermittent deep shots off play action. A first-half stud like Heath Miller may be kept in to block more. Emmanuel Sanders -- and Antonio Brown, when he comes back -- are volume-dependent receivers who will see reduced volume. The Steelers will try to win games in spite of their quarterback, leaning on their defense and run game. It's not a recipe for fantasy success. ... Although his consistency is sure to be affected, Mike Wallace may be the one Steelers pass catcher capable of overcoming the almost certain impending change in offensive philosophy. Leftwich still has a bazooka arm, and his strength is challenging downfield. Wallace also has a favorable Week 11 matchup against burnable Ravens outside corners Cary Williams and Chykie Brown. Wallace's fantasy owners need to hope for a deep bomb or two.

A run-based attack like the one Haley ran in Kansas City won't necessarily turn Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, or Rashard Mendenhall into a fantasy star. We don't even know which Steelers back will get the carries. "At this stage they seem to be more comfortable using Dwyer and Redman," ESPN's John Clayton suggested this week. "If they have Mendenhall, it's only going to be for a cameo role." We'll see. Mendenhall has resumed practicing fully, and Redman told the media this week that he expects Mendenhall to start at Baltimore. The matchup is right against the Ravens' No. 26 run defense, but none of the three backs is assured of more than 12-15 touches. In Week 11, invest in this running back corps at your own peril. ... Sanders is an unreliable WR3 gamble for the reasons outlined above, but it's worth noting that he was Leftwich's favorite receiver immediately after Roethlisberger exited last Monday night's win over Kansas City in the third quarter. Leftwich's target distribution from Week 10: Sanders 5, Wallace 3, FB Will Johnson 2, Dwyer, Redman, and Jerricho Cotchery 1. For Sanders, only time can tell whether that means anything. Leftwich probably felt comfortable throwing to him because they've spent so much time together on the second team. Sanders is a slot receiver with ones, but a starter with the twos.

Joe Flacco shredded a bad Raiders defense in Week 10, using his tight ends down the seam in the first half and vertical strikes to Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones in the final two quarters. It was a clinic. Flacco will face an entirely different animal in Week 11, taking on a Steelers team that both ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 1 against the pass. Flacco is a matchup-based QB1 streamer only at this point, and this is an unfavorable matchup. Bench Flacco on Sunday night. ... Passing success will be difficult for Baltimore's offense to achieve in this game, but the deep middle of Pittsburgh's defense may be vulnerable. SS Troy Polamalu (calf) is out yet again, and FS Ryan Clark is coming off his second concussion in the past three weeks. Smith is Flacco's' deep ball specialist, and recorded a 5-71-1 line in Baltimore's visit to Pittsburgh in November of 2011, the last time these two clubs met. Smith is the No. 13 overall fantasy wide receiver and a quality WR2 play in this game. He also plays on each side of the field enough to avoid RCB Ike Taylor's coverage on a substantial number of plays. ... Anquan Boldin's production has slowed to a halt the past three weeks, which shouldn't surprise anyone because he's 32 years old and has done the same thing in each of the last two years. He's a bottom-barrel WR3 option for Week 11.

If there has been a shaky aspect of Pittsburgh's 2012 defense, it's the way they have played the run. Darren McFadden (18-113-1), Jamaal Charles (23-100-1), and Chris Johnson (19-91) have all struggled at certain points this season, but they've all ran effectively on the Steelers. In Ray Rice's two 2011 meetings with Pittsburgh, he racked up 235 all-purpose yards and three scores. Fantasy owners shouldn't be afraid to to start Rice, despite a difficult matchup on paper. He's the No. 4 overall fantasy back and an every-week RB1. ... Dennis Pitta was a big part of Baltimore's Week 10 passing onslaught against Oakland, securing 5-of-5 balls for 67 yards and a touchdown. While the potential absence of both Steelers safeties increases Pitta's Week 11 attractiveness, the sudden production surge is a bit difficult to trust long term because it all came in the first half and seemed specific to that week's game plan. Pitta doesn't play on running downs and was not targeted in the final two quarters. Pitta remains a desperation option in fantasy leagues.

Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Steelers 17

Monday Night Football

Chicago @ San Francisco

This week's Monday nighter projects to be long on defense and short on points. Both quarterback starters are coming off Week 10 concussions, although San Francisco's should be available for the game. Still, the over-under is 38.5 -- tied with Jets-Rams for lowest of Week 11 -- and both clubs field top-five defenses. For fantasy lineup decisions, this is a game to avoid where possible. ... The Bears have defended the run well for most of the season, but they sprang leaks the past two weeks. Titans and Texans backs racked up 286 yards and a touchdown on 53 carries (5.40 YPC) against Chicago in Weeks 9-10, shining some light on Frank Gore's matchup. It also can't be understated how dominant the Niners' offensive line has been as a run-blocking unit this season. The No. 8 fantasy back to this point, Gore should be locked into lineups. ... If there were ever a matchup to get Vernon Davis off the schneid, this is it. Chicago's defense has permitted the fifth most receptions in the NFL to tight ends, often allowing them to simply run uncovered over the middle. A major coverage liability at age 34, MLB Brian Urlacher can't run anymore on bad knees.

49ers coach Jim Harbaugh would be smart to dial up frequent three-receiver sets Monday night, spreading out the Bears' secondary and forcing slot CB Kelvin Hayden to match up with Michael Crabtree. Outside receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham will struggle to get open against LCB Charles Tillman and RCB Tim Jennings, but Crabtree is capable of eating up Hayden down the seam. Crabtree has a plus matchup. ... Alex Smith received early-week medical clearance, and there is some debate about whether he suffered a Week 10 concussion at all. Regardless, Smith would be an incredibly poor quarterback play against the Bears' top-ten pass defense. Chicago leads the NFL in interceptions, ranks sixth in sacks, and first in quarterback rating allowed. Don't be surprised if Smith doesn't drop back to pass more than 20 times in this game.

Jay Cutler's concussion will indeed sideline him for Week 11, leaving the Bears' quarterback reins to Jason Campbell. With little to no mobility and windmill arm action, Campbell is nearly as poor a fit behind Chicago's sieve-like offensive line as Byron Leftwich is for Todd Haley's quick-pass offense in Pittsburgh. Leftwich at least benefits this week from facing a sub-par Ravens defense. Campbell must deal with the 49ers, who rank fifth against the pass, third in total defense, and second in sacks. Campbell would be a poor two-quarterback league play in this matchup. ... Although San Francisco plays run-tough defense, Chicago will be left with little choice but to hitch its wagon to Matt Forte's legs. Even if it means jackhammering Forte into a brick wall. The Bears will have to hope 49ers Week 10 opponent St. Louis put a crack in that wall with 159 rushing yards and a touchdown on 36 rushing attempts by Steven Jackson and rookie Daryl Richardson last Sunday.

Scoreless since Week 3 and averaging six touches for 32 yards over his last five games, Michael Bush has been reduced to handcuff or late-season stash only. He's little threat to Forte's workload and completely off the fantasy radar as a standalone option. ... Replacing Cutler, Campbell came off the bench to attempt 19 passes against the Texans last week. His target distribution: Brandon Marshall 9, Forte and Matt Spaeth 3, Kellen Davis 2, Earl Bennett and Kris Adams 1, Devin Hester 0. ... So Campbell at least knows where to go with the football. He hooked up with Marshall six times for 86 yards in one half of work against Houston, most notably connecting on a 45-yard bomb in Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph's coverage. No other Bears passing-game member is worth Week 11 fantasy consideration, but Marshall looks like the one player capable of overcoming the downgrade from Cutler to Campbell. ... Returning from his fractured hand, Alshon Jeffery resumed practicing fully on Friday and is believed to have a chance to play Monday night, after missing the Bears' last four games. Although not a standalone fantasy option, Jeffery could add another dimension to Chicago's passing attack when Cutler returns. Jeffery flashed big-play ability early in the season, averaging over 13 yards per reception with two touchdowns in five games.