World politics: Quick View - Countries move to ratify TPP-11

On July 6th Japan became the second country to ratify the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), or the so-called TPP‑11, a mega-regional free-trade agreement.

Analysis

Japan is the second country, after Mexico, to complete domestic procedures to ratify the trade agreement. The other signatories are Chile, Peru, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Canada and Brunei. To enter into force, the agreement will need to be ratified by the legislatures of at least six of the signatories; it will become valid 60 days after this occurs.

There is high chance that ratification could be completed by year-end, but progress among the other nine members is mixed. Chile is reported to be close to securing legislative approval, along with Peru, within the new few months. The governments of Canada and New Zealand have drafted the necessary bills and these are making their way through the respective parliaments, but neither government has reached the final stage of their domestic procedures. Officials from both countries have hinted that completion is likely in the fourth quarter of this year. Australia was quick off the starting blocks and presented the text of the CPTPP to its parliament in March, but progress has since slowed.

Of the South-east Asian nations within CPTPP, Vietnam has stressed the importance of countering the rising tide of trade protectionism and is likely to be the first country in this region to ratify the trade agreement. Singapore has been a vocal supporter of the agreement, but despite holding a huge majority in parliament the government there is unlikely to ratify the pact until year-end at the earliest. Brunei, which is an autocracy, has not made public its timeline to ratify the CPTPP and may instead focus on implementation once the agreement comes into force. By contrast, the new prime minister of Malaysia, Mahathir Mohamad, has said that his government would like to review the terms of the agreement. The signatories are unlikely to renegotiate the terms. Under these circumstances, Malaysia might choose not to implement the CPTPP.

The next stage for the signatories of the CPTPP will be enlargement. Even before the talks on the CPTPP were concluded, countries such as Taiwan and Thailand had expressed an interest in joining the agreement.