Breaking it down: So what needs to happen here and elsewhere for Sharks to clinch playoff spot?

LOS ANGELES — Everything went smoothly getting here from Dallas, but the earlier disruption meant that Mark Emmons back in San Jose did most of the heavy lifting today on our story that runs in the print edition that focuses on the fact the Sharks’ road through the playoffs goes through Jonathan Quick.

Hint: That means it won’t be easy, but for the details, see the link in the right-hand column.

The one thing I can contribute at this point comes courtesy of Darin Stephens, better known as @SharksStats and someone whose math skills are greater than most of us who pay attention to the local hockey team. While the rest of us are trying to figure out what needs to happen to get the Sharks a guaranteed spot in the post-season or even the Pacific Division title, @SharksStats actually has the skills to figure it out.

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Here’s his handiwork for those brave enough to try to get a handle on what it’ll take to get into the playoffs and/or capture that Pacific title.

Sharks Playoff Berth Clinch Scenarios

Thursday night, Sharks get in if

Stars lose in regulation and Colorado loses in regulation or OT/SO.

or

Colorado loses in regulation or OT/SO

or

Stars lose in OT/SO

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and

Sharks earn at least one point

or

Stars & Avalanche win

and

Sharks win.

Onto the next task, winning the division. That happens if:

Sharks win both remaining games in regulation or one in regulation & one in OT

and

Phoenix earns 3 points or fewer, with any win coming only in a shootout

or

Sharks lose one game in a shootout and win the other in regulation by 2+ goals

and

Phoenix earns no more than 1 point total in their two remaining games

******With @markedwinemmons doing the bulk of the work today, I found myself with a more freetime than usual in Los Angeles. Let’s just say I spent a little time researching the ambiance in Manhattan Beach. There may be a lot of things wrong with Los Angeles — let’s start with traffic — but Manhattan Beach should not be on anybody’s list. Great area.

No secret that a lot of the Kings live there because it’s so close to their El Segundo practice rink, but if I needed more evidence, I’m pretty sure defenseman Matt Greene jogged by as I was walking in the opposite direction along the beachfront Strand. At least it was some big guy wearing a weathered North Dakota Fighting Sioux T-shirt who looked like Matt Greene. Ah, LA. Celebrities just everywhere.

David Pollak

David Pollak has been following the NHL forever and at the Mercury News as an editor or reporter since 1987. For almost a decade he wrote about the Sharks as the paper's Fan in the Stands before joining the sports department in 2001. He became the Sharks beat writer before the 2007-08 season and began this blog at that time. You can also follow him on Twitter at @PollakOnSharks.

Quick is so familiar with JT, PM and little Joe .. et all.
Winnick and Galliardi may be the aces in the hole. Dominic Moore has made some unbelievable passes in the crease of late..so more of that too!

Johnny San Jose

CforPavs — I’ve mentioned this before that the Sharks gave Marleau that contract. I’m not sure why. He’s been the same, very consistent goal scorer, assist guy and can kill penalties as well as excel on the power play. He’s a very good player but wasn’t worth $7M when they signed him but they did offer him that contract to stay in San Jose and he took it.

Maybe they gave that contract to him to ensure he stayed in San Jose? Maybe it’s because he puts the puck in the net in the playoffs? Maybe they like his “dopey” smile?

He’s a good player. He’s right on pace to finish where he’s consistently averaged. He’s very tough to play against and he’s a guy that 29 other teams would do flips over to grab because he’s a guy that’ll get you 30 goals and shows up in the playoffs. He’s obviously a leader or he never would’ve worn the “C” on his chest.

I have no idea where people come off calling out his effort. He’s been on fire the last month and a half. I don’t see him ever being lazy and not backchecking and he’s been terrific along the boards. I know that his goals aren’t Stamkos-like but I wish everyone would watch this guy on every shift and see what he does for this team. His skating stride is effortless. People equate that to him being lazy. That’s nuts.

He’s the best two-way player on the ice, most nights. Let the “Marleau Apologist, Pollyanna, Fill in the Blank”, comments begin!

gbs – You do realize that that sort of BS argument (ie: the haters only see what supports their point of view) can go both ways, right?

Johnny San Jose

NB Finfan # 45… Damn!

http://WorkingtheCorners Sharkita

#48 And don’t forget Havlet. Quick hasn’t seen much of him. I hope the “Drama Kings” choke.

gbs417

Wonderogre,

Valid point. However, the call to attention was slated towards the foolishness of believing it all happens in a vacuum; no other variables or factors ever present.

Wonderogre

Ah, I see yeah that makes sense. Crazy to look at things in a vacuum, with no other factors present when his soft play is always present.

Wonderogre

JSJ – He’s a guy who scores 30 goals by virtue of playing with Joe. Didn’t start hitting that milestone until Thornton arrived in town. Marleau isn’t a consistent 30 goal scorer unless he has a guy like that on his line to create time and space (something Marleau can’t do alone) and feed him the puck.

I’ll give you that he has an extremely deceptive stride, but people don’t call out how hard he skates – they call out how hard he plays. I think we all – and if we don’t, we should – remember the play he made in last season’s playoffs where he abandoned a loose puck in order to avoid a check. The last time Marleau showed real post-season passion was the last time they played Calgary. And as much as he puts the puck into the net in the playoffs (again, in large part thanks to Thornton), he hasn’t been the best playoff goal scorer for several seasons now on a team that has desperately lacked good snipers.

Fact is, plenty of players can reach or exceed Marleau’s production if they’re put on a line with JT. A $7mil player should be able to improve the play of those around them as well as put up consistent production, but Marleau needs a lot of help in order to score at a $7mil pace, which by definition doesn’t make him a $7mil player. I’d love to have him on the team for something n the area of $4-5mil, ie: in the same range as Pavs, whose defensive play is at least as good, despite not having the same skating advantage as Marleau (Pavs does it with brains, an area in which Marleau lacks his skating advantage, too), and who put up near-Marleau numbers last year in fewer games despite spending a lot of his time playing with Wellwood and freaking Mitchell on a 3rd.

gbs417

Wonderogre

Haha! Well played sir

Doug H

honestly the stigma is more a personality thing with marleau.

when you look at pavelski he is constantly grimacing and skating everywhere and making it look like its a mountain of effort.

marleau makes it look effortless, hence we pay less attention to it.

he is the secondary forechecker and still racks up 30+ a season. so after the first forechecker gets the puck deep, marleau protects it and dishes it out, usually itll land on jumbos stick, and pavelski has already had time to get in position, so marleau skates his best in these situations where most of us are paying attention to the puck carrier on the final pass, “where did marleau come from??” etc. could he be stronger on the boards? absolutely, but hey hes out hitting joe thornton and logan couture…no biggie though. i would ask that at least for a few shifts you pick out marleau in the crowd tonight, when he battles on the half boards or protects the puck behind the net, and make note how much he loses the puck vs. keeps possession.

when hes in a scoring slump, which every player goes through, he is still doing all the other things right and is providing support that leads to goals for other players.

he could be a better back checker, he could play less dump and chase, he could attack his defender to create more one on one scenarios, and he could take less shots from too far out. he is not perfect, but he is far from the player many on here are describing.

Johnny San Jose, I agree completely about Marleau. He is working in the corners, skating, and one of the best two way players on the team. The Sharks paid him the money because they believe he is worth it. A lot of the “shot the puck” crowd seems to miss about 60% of how the game is played… Hold on to your panties everyone, I don’t believe because a person doesn’t like Marleau they don’t know hocky, I was just pointing out that there are nuance’s to the game that the Sharks management sees that some fans don’t see.

Doug H

JSJ,

so not including the fact that the three years before jumbo were his first three years. JT has only realistically provided him an average of 10 more goals on the year. and thats not even digging in to see who actually got his assists.

Doug H. Actually, Marleau had 3 years before that where he scored;
13 reg. season. zero goals in the playoffs (5 games)
21 reg. season 2 goals in 6 games (playoffs)
17 reg. season 1 goal in 5 games (playoffs)

He had his breakout year when he turned 21. Similar to our # 39.

Pattycakebakersman

Seems like the best way to beat the kings is to score “a” goal. Just one will do it cuz the Kings are one of the worst snakebit teams iv ever seen. Sharks could sweep the series w two goals (one in each game). I’m mostly joking, you never know what kind of game you’re going to get, but it seems like Teams like LA and St. Louis play to ruin the flow of games and chip in an odd goal while the sharks try to impliment their high flying offence(I wish). Thats why games w Detroit are such a treat because both teams want to play fast offensive Hockey. When the Blues and Kings meet up they might as well just skip the game and go strait to the shootout because neither teams main focus is scoring goals. Im just being a hater on those teams because it is such frustrating hockey to watch, but I do respect them, especial SL. Kinda wish the Sharks would take a page out of their “D Fence” Book. I still believe tho that if the Sharks can find a way to play up to their potential and enforce their game on these teams, the Sharks would be a serious Cup contender. But that has yet to be seen… Oh well feel like i’m rambling now. Go Sharks!!

CforPavs

I watch PM every night.

He’s not physical, he’s not tough, he’s weak along the boards. I watch him fly into the zone, get around the boards, then do nothing to get the puck back. I watch him fly into the zone with the puck, and then take a 30 foot wrister instead of driving the net with that “effortless” speed everyone talks about. He might score some goals in the playoffs but like I’ve said earlier, if he’s not scoring he’s not doing anything significant of a $7 million dollar player.

And don’t tell me he backchecks hard, every forward in the NHL is required or at least should do that.

And don’t tell me he’s a leader. HAHAH, how many “leaders” get the “C” stripped from them?

And don’t tell me he makes things look easy or that his “grace” of skating is why it seems he’s not playing hard. Crosby’s got all the talent in the world, I can actually SEE him work hard. Same for Datsyuk, same for Zetterberg, same for Couture, same for Pavelski.

And the last time I noticed PM earning his keep in the PO was in Calgary, when they had to break his face before he finally woke up.

Try all you want to defend this guys position/salary on the team, he’s just not worth it. Reduce his salary by 2 mill a year and make him just another player surrounding true leaders and then this becomes a discussion.

GO SHARKS.

SF Sharks fan

“Winning is a great deoderant,” said John Madden, former coach of the Oakland Raiders. Just win the last two, and you’ve done all you can to get in the playoffs. There’s so many different permutations that it’s now “wait and see.” GO SHARKS!!!

Wonderogre

Doug H – Yes, this year, and one year is never good to look at in isolation (otherwise we’d think Marleau was a perennial 40 goal scorer, right?). How does that breakdown look last year? And what, just out of curiosity, is the source for that?

And, no, it’s really not just a personality thing. Marleau makes skating look easy, but everything else look too difficult to get involved in. He has more hits than Couture and Thornton? Hell of a pair to compare to – Logan gives up 30 lbs and some height to Marleau (hey, how many hits did Marleau have in his second NHL season?) and Thornton has Spontaneous Allergy to Physical Contact Syndrome. I do in fact make it a point to focus on him for a handful of shifts every game I watch, and he’s only dynamic when he gets room to move his legs. Note: not feet, because Marleau isn’t fast over short distances, he’s fast over long ones. Marleau becomes a game-changer when he can blow from his zone into the offensive side of the ice. For his size, I don’t think he’s any better than average at battling for and controlling pucks along the boards. Clowe outstrips him. Couture is better at making plays on the boards despite the aforementioned size disadvantage.

Again, Marleau isn’t a bad player. He just possesses a limited set of skills: he has size and speed and a good shot; and he lacks hands and brains and balls (even off the ice – his avoidance of the press during and after the series against Anaheim was incredible).

Top Liner

couture goes on a scoreless streak, people make the excuse that it’s because he gets banged up, gets slammed into the boards, and these same people use the nicknames ‘porcelain doll’ and marshmallow puns for other sharks players. sounds like couture is the marshmallow in this bunch.

Johnny San Jose

CforPavs –

Your 1st paragraph – I disagree.

Your 2nd paragraph – I WILL tell you that he backchecks hard.

Your 3rd paragraph – I WILL tell you he’s a leader. According to his coach as well as the players on the team.

Your 4th paragraph — I disagree. The only “physical player” you mention in that list is Zetterberg. Everyone else is considered, “Soft”, right?

Your 5th paragraph – I disagree, again. Marleau is the only one who put the puck in the net in the Vancouver and Chicago series the last two playoff seasons.

Your 6th paragraph – I’ve never defended his salary. I told you that I didn’t think he deserved that kind of money but it would be stupid for him not to take it, yes?

Doug H

cforpavs,

he is one of the best forecheckers on this team. not sure what you are “watching” more likely is you are letting a few bad plays stay in your mind.

crosby/malkin are almost on 9 mill a year btw. marleau isnt even in the top 25 highest paid, his contract is far from an albatross like dany heatley for instance.

ill give you datsyuk/zetterburg.

the only top ten highest paid players that are also top ten in pts this year
malkin
spezza

couture is so weak on the puck its not even funny, get out of here with that crap. he crumples on the boards more than any other player.

Top Liner

cforpavs: please explain to me why the leaders you speak of disappear in the later rounds of the playoffs. they tear it up against the lower seeds, but when it’s the toughest teams in the later rounds, they disappear? the ones you diss are the few that actually put the puck in the net in those later rounds, which is really all that matters at that point of the playoffs (unless they are a major defensive liability, in which case, they need to get their crap together). i would think that scoring in the wcf is what matters, but i could be wrong.

DWilly MUST GO

LA SUCKS!!!!! I HATE EVERY PROFESSONAL TEAM IN SO. CAL, EXCEPT THE TROJANS. How do you hate a team named after a Condom, Ok, just kidding.

BEAT LA, BEAT LA, BEAT LA, BEAT LA!!!!!!! BEAT FREAKING LA ALREADY.

For ALL of you Patrica Marleau Apologist, Quit being bootlickers, HE SUCKS period end of story. Disappears soon as the going gets tough. Quit singing his praises already. He has 2 games to NUT UP and PLAY LIKE A MAN. I will be looking for his EFFORT, let’s see what happens.

I’m out

Wonderogre

JSJ – I’m not sure which point you’re disagreeing with? I said he isn’t a 30 goal scorer without JT and…you posted a series of stats supporting that?

It’s not like, to counter Doug, Joe needs Marleau. He’s been able to produce in his career (and quite a lot, too) without Patty on the team. Hell he set CHEECHOO up for a Richard trophy. Joe just needs a guy who can shoot and get open, and Joe’s ability to control the puck (well, most of the time) opens up a lot of time and space for other guys. Guys like Couture and Pavelski and Clowe can also generate time and space for other guys. Marleau rarely can – more often than not it has to be generated for him.

That’s my problem with Marleau: generally speaking, he needs to play with guys better at hockey than him in order to look really good. A $7mil player should be able to look good all on his own (Scott Gomez comparisons not withstanding).

Wonderogre

Doug H – Couture is weak on the puck my ass. If you want to see someone crumple every time they touch the puck, watch Mitchell.

DWilly MUST GO

where did my post go, What The?

Wonderogre

Top Liner – parsing your posts is annoying as hell, but if I was able to reform what you wrote into English correctly,: scoring in the WCF is important, but first you need to get there.

slappy

Buddy Elf previous thread
Sorry I didnt get back to you about McGinn and CW. A friend flew in from out of town for a few days. Lots of catch up to do.
Re: McGinn -you do know that the Avs game took place on 03/26 right? Thats a long time to be fretting about my opinion on McGinns game…just sayin’…its getting kinda weird that youre dragging this bone around and not found a burial site yet. And I thought we discussed my opinion before, no? Whatever. Here’s why I thought McGinn had a great game even tho the Avs lost and McGinn got a -4.
1. McGinn had 4 shots on goal (McGinn and Landeskog had the highest # of SO) that were all excellent scoring chances. And McGinn generated at least 2 passes to his line mates Statsny and Jones that were excellent opps for both players to score. If you look at the Sharks official site video review of “Save” highlights of the game, McGinn is featured as a key Avs player in 5 of them.http://sharks.nhl.com/club/gamevideo.htm?id=2011021139
1st period @3:11 and 18:29
2nd period @ 12:22 and 16:17
3rd period @ 8:53

2. McGinn drew a penalty on Vlasic, our #2 dman who is also our best shut down and PKer dman, that gave the Avs an opp to score on the PP.

3. McGinn took 0 penalties – he played a disciplined game. He did not put the Avs at a disadvantage at all in the game.

4. McGinn played 2:10 minutes of PP even slightly more than the Avs best scorer Landeskog. The Avs coach had confidence in McGinn. McGinn only played 28 seconds on the PK and that’s because he’s considered an offensive player, not a defensive forward. McGinn’s line is comprised of him, an Offensive forward, and 2 defensive minded forwards, Statsny and Jones, both of whom also play PK. Plus and minus has a lot of factors involved ( like quality of opponent, quality of teams’ defense etc). The +/- numbers are not very accurate in measuring an offensive forward’s play in a game unless he makes terrible mistakes that lead to goals, which McGinn did not do. -’s in a game could reflect poorly on dmen and bottom 6 forwards ( and 2 way forwards) to a certain extent. Goals and assist totals are used more often than not to evaluate the skills of top 6 offensive forwards. In the Avs game against us, McGinn did everything that was expected of him. He would have had an excellent game if he had scored on some of his great chances. But he didnt because the Sharks are a much better team experience wise and quality wise as a whole and particularly on defense. Avs have 1 top 4 Dman (Johnson) and 5 bottom 4 dmen -Hejda, O’Brien, O’Bryne, Hunwick, Wilson.

In terms of McGinn getting a -4 in the game, its because his line was on the ice at the time of the goals but it was mainly a function of the Avs very poor dmen’s defensive play, and not anything McGinn did or didnt do personally that I recall. His 2 defensive line mates – Statsny and Jones – weren’t particularly helpful to the Avs dmen imo.

Re: CW -he took a useless penalty ( knocked down Ott before he had the puck?) with a ref right behind him. It could have been costly because the Stars had just scored seconds before CWs penalty and right after his penalty, BB took a penalty. CW’s +1 was because he was on the ice when TJ scored. Did CW have a good game? When I dont hear his name then hes had a good game. I heard his name and saw his red face in the Sin Bin game against the Stars. Is he making fewer mistakes than before? Maybe. Or is it because Braun has gotten stronger as the season progressed so now Braun takes the lead in our 3rd pairing? If you think CW had a good game against Dallas, go for it! He made one bad boo boo and Dallas did not score -they have one of the worst PP in the League, so we’re fortunate. I’ll meet you 1/2 way – CW did not have a bad game against Dallas.

Tom (fm Quinzee)

LTNC (soon to be Longer TNC) – it was a C’s game – my brother was trapped there, too! Small world.

Tom (fm Quinzee)

CforPavs – calm down – I agree w/ you, but geez, man, I can see your blood pressure blowing up through my computer.

hmslion

Jerks at Comcast not showning the game in Seattle tonight. Have to put the meaningless MLB ealry season games on…

Long Time No Cup

Slappy,

Close your eyes and squeeze them shut harder and harder until you see stars. Say “Jamie will come back” ten times really sincerely.

Torrey the WonderTaco™ is incredibly fast, and can be knocked off the puck when a defenseman looks at him funny.

The only Sharks I see that are strong with the puck are Thornton (who gets challenged unmercifully when he has it), Clowe, D. Murray, and (surprisingly) Havlat. Those guys can reliably keep the puck once it’s on their stick. (In Crankshaft’s case, I think people are afraid to challenge him for it.)

— Geri(h)atric, member in good standing SBoTTM, SCWaPJV & PGiNaGNaR

MLBSF

It’s hard for me to put into words how much I dislike Marleau.

It’s hard for me to express how much blame I think he deserves for preventing the Sharks from ever having been able to reach their full potential.

In summary, I have no idea what many of the pollyannas see in the 7 million dollar man.

I wonder if Patrick Marleau plans on participating in the Sharks’ goal of defeating the Los Angeles Kings.

I don’t know how many goals he has in 2012, but I’m pretty sure I can count them all on one hand.

Doug H

wonder…yea i probably exaggerated there a bit sue me.

but to cry that marleau is soft when clearly he is better on the boards than couture, and hits more than thornton it seems that a few plays that stick out are painting his entire career, which is unfair.

nor is his contract out of the norm given his average consistency..admittedly he has been in a very long slump this year.

last year down the stretch he had 13 goals in 19 and 26 pts. i doubt anyone was calling for his head then. the entire sharks team is down in scoring, we are barely keeping up a 2.5 GF/G, yet we are still top 5 in terms of keeping the puck in the offensive zone. the pucks will go in and im sure marleau will be on the end of some of them, and his board work will continue to go unnoticed because thornton and boyle will be on the assist sheet.

as for the A on his chest, i would say give it to pavs, just for the on ice presence. but i doubt players are looking for the captains to set their level of play…at least i hope not.

Beer League

Talk about so much hate…..

smh

Doug H

oh, forgot to say that it was an over zealous fan im guessing that compiled the numbers for marleaus goals. im guessing there is an easy way to figure it out by just finding the games marleau scored in and looking at the assists, but i dont have a site with the stats. so it could definitely be off the mark

ZEKE

One of the reasons I think we see less of Marleau is because Pavs is showing up in many fo the places we’re accustomed to seeing Marleau.

I’ve been a fan of giving Pavs his own line — he doesn’t need talent like Jumbo and Marleau to succeed most of the time. But Marleau would cash in on Jumbo’s passes instead of Pavs if Pavs were moved to another line.

slappy

Jeff Carter is definitely out for tonights game with an ankle injury. LA has trouble scoring goals. Without Carter a play maker and a goal scorer himself, this is a huge advantage for the Sharks!!!

I predict a Sharks win in regulation.

Go Sharks!

Johnny San Jose

Goals in 2012

Marleau = 15
Couture = 14

NB Finfan

It is interesting to read everyones take on PM. I have to say mine are different but also similar to most that I have read today.

In the plus column:
I see him as quick but not fast. It is his excelleration that gives him most of his advantage. I say not fast because I have seen too many times this year and last where D are able to catch up to him. It think he has extremely quick hands too. The puck jumps off of his stick. All in all very smooth.

I also think it is unfair to say he doesnt hit. He has been very physical with the body hits along the boards this year.

Now to the minus side of the column:
My biggest complaint is he is a one and done at attempts to get the puck. Very visible in his game along the boards. He gives it one try and then moves on. You dont see the same tenacity at this as you do from other players. And I think this were the soft perception comes from.

I also agree with the comment you wont see him drive the net with the puck one on one with a defender in front of him. Sadly to say I think Burns has done this more than all of our forwards combined.

I think if we were to see the same tenacity at fighting for space or the puck as we see from Pav’s there would be very little criticism of his play. He is just a different type of player that finds different ways to succeed.

Hockeynut

I’m not a huge Marleau fan but the hate for a guy who consistently puts up goals and points for his entire career (even before Thornton despite what some posters claim) is ridiculous. Marleau has been one of the most steady players the Sharks have had for the better part of a decade. Sure he’s not Brendan Shanahan (physical) or Pavel Datsyuk (gifted) but he’s solid, he’s durable, and he knows how to “finish” as witness by his goal total for his career. Just stop already, you are looking like fools dissing Marleau.

Johnny San Jose

Wonderogre — You’re right… Marleau isn’t a 30 goal scorer. His career average is 28. He was doing that before Thornton got here.

No worries. I think he’s a good player and helps the team, even when he’s not scoring.

NB Finfan

One last thing on PM. If he is the one that needs talent to succeed, why is it he is the guy that Tmac moves around to jump start the cold lines?

slappy

LTNC@86
Say what? Talk about trying too hard to sound clever and missing the mark…FYI, only reason I posted about McGinn is because Buddy Elf brought him up again in a lengthy post to me a couple of days ago and I am doing Buddy Elf a courtesy of responding to him. I dont pine for McGinn. I just dont appreciate people attacking or mocking McGinn.