This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distribution to colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire about permissions/licensing, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com

In confronting Russia, NATO faces familiar foe

In echoes of the Cold War, NATO freezes relations with Moscow and eyes military deployments to deter Russian aggression.

Russian President Vladimir Putin playing host to South African President Jacob Zuma on Thursday. On Friday, as the advance of Russian troops into Ukraine was denounced, Putin spoke of Russia being "one of the leading nuclear powers" which others should not "mess with." (Alexei Druzhinin / AP)

OTTAWA—Western leaders are denouncing advances by Russian troops and equipment into Ukraine, calling it a dangerous escalation of the ongoing conflict, in turn prompting a dark warning from President Vladimir Putin: don’t mess with us.

NATO said it had satellite images showing a convoy of Russian self-propelled artillery units taking up firing positions in the area of Ukrainian town of Krasnodon, near the Russian border.

“Despite Moscow’s hollow denials, it is now clear that Russian troops and equipment have illegally crossed the border,” NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said Friday.

“This is a blatant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. It defies all diplomatic efforts for a peaceful solution.”

NATO said it also has evidence of Russia supplying advanced weapons such as air defence systems, artillery, tanks and armoured personnel carriers being transferred to separatist forces.

Article Continued Below

Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird this week called the Russian moves into Ukraine an “active invasion.”

He said there must be further repercussions for this “blatant act of aggression,” on top of the economic sanctions Canada has already imposed.

“Canada stands ready with its international partners to take further measures to isolate the Putin regime,” Baird said.

But Putin declared Friday that his nation would repel any aggression, noting its nuclear arsenal and warning that Russia’s partners “should understand it’s best not to mess with us.”

“Russia is far from being involved in any large-scale conflicts,” he said, according to a Reuters report. “We don’t want that and don’t plan on it. But naturally, we should always be ready to repel any aggression towards Russia.”

“Thank God, I think no one is thinking of unleashing a large-scale conflict with Russia. I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers,” Putin said during a visit to a Moscow-area youth camp, according to the news agency.

The escalation in tensions comes as leaders of the military alliance — including Prime Minister Stephen Harper — prepare to meet in Wales.

When they gather, they’ll be facing some tough and costly choices, like whether to commit troops to eastern Europe and ramp up defence spending in response to Russian aggression.

Indeed, a quarter century after the fall of the Berlin Wall ushered in an era of rapprochement between East and West, NATO nations find themselves again staring down an old and familiar foe.

Yet decades of detente have left NATO ill-prepared to counter Russian aggression, the very threat it was created to face.

In the thawing of the Cold War, members of the military alliance dropped their guard, cut defence budgets and along the way lost their readiness, even their willingness, to confront their one-time nemesis.

In recent months, experts have warned that the NATO of 2014 is poorly prepared to counter Russian military moves and that urgent action is needed.

Over the last five years, Russia has boosted its defence spending by 50 per cent while NATO nations have cut their military budgets by 20 per cent, even up to 40 per cent, according to NATO.

Canada has been part of that trend.

After years of increases, the defence budget was cut between 2011 and 2014 as part of the government’s overall belt-tightening. According to a briefing document prepared for Defence Minister Rob Nicholson, those cuts have totalled $3 billion since 2012-13, prompting defence officials to warn of “challenges” trying to balance department priorities with their allotted budget.

NATO figures show Canada spends 1 per cent of its gross domestic product on defence. That puts Canada near the bottom of the 28 NATO nations and below the 2 per cent benchmark that NATO is encouraging its member states to adopt.

“The most important thing NATO can do is demonstrate that it’s serious about defending the security of all of its members and it will do so at all costs,” said University of Ottawa academic Roland Paris.

Paris was part of an expert panel that presented recommendations to NATO leadership in June. Their report concluded the transatlantic community faces risks that are “unprecedented” since 1989, when the Berlin Wall came down.

“NATO should adopt a more robust and coherent defensive stance designed to deter any opportunistic extension of Russian actions in other European countries,” the report said.

It urged NATO to step up its readiness by bolstering its response force, conduct more exercises, and deploy air, ground and naval units to the alliance’s eastern nations for “as long as situation requires.”

And it called on NATO nations to collectively reverse the decline in defence spending.

NATO is likely to opt for the middle ground by reinforcing a regional base in Szczecin, Poland, with additional personnel and equipment to give it an improved ability to respond to threats.

“The focus is on the ability to respond to crises and threats, not the permanent basing of combat troops in eastern Europe,” said one military source familiar with the situation.

As well, the alliance will likely agree to hold more regular exercises and make them more ambitious, reversing a trend brought on by shrinking defence budgets.

Canada has joined NATO’s “reassurance” mission, announced in April, meant as an interim counter to Russia. Six fighters were deployed to Romania for air patrols and four of those have now moved to Lithuania. The frigate HMCS Toronto is on patrol in the Mediterranean Sea, Canadian soldiers have been on exercise in Poland and two dozen military personnel were dispatched to work out of Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE).

Canada’s contribution is in line with the military assets offered up other NATO members. Denmark, France, Poland and the United Kingdom are providing jet fighters. Germany, Belgium, Estonia, France, Norway and the Netherlands have developed warships. And many of these nations also contributed troops for a May exercise in Estonia also sent military staff to SHAPE headquarters.

Paris said that Russia’s new aggression has served as a sobering warning.

“It’s a wakeup call in many respects. It wakes up all NATO members to the fact that the international security and the security of the western alliance can’t be taken for granted. Even the security of Europe can’t be taken for granted,” Paris said.

“We are in a period of unprecedented turbulence . . . in international affairs,” said Paris, director of the university’s Centre for International Policy Studies.

But the security concerns extend to China and its offshore territorial disputes and the instability that extends across North Africa and into the Middle East.

The expert panel said that these developments also represent potential threats to NATO and its member nations. It notes that extremists are taking advantage of the chaos in Syria, Libya is struggling with nation-building and the overthrow of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and subsequent crackdown have stalled hopes for a more democratic system.

“The transatlantic community cannot ignore the rising and likely persistent instability in Europe’s southern and south-eastern neighbourhood,” the report said.

“Radicalized fighters are returning to European cities, where some may turn on their own societies or plot attacks to be carried out in the United States and Canada,” the panel experts wrote.

All this marks “serious long-term challenges for international order and western security,” Paris told the Star.

“The solution is not simply to talk tough and build military forces. In many cases, solutions will require deft diplomacy. Nevertheless, we have to hedge,” Paris said.

This recent crisis has been a case of déjà vu for NATO — a military alliance formed in 1949 with 12 founding members, including Canada, as a counter to the emerging Soviet aggression at the time.

Today, Russia is not the Soviet Union, the sprawling communist state that included Russia and republics such as Lithuania, Georgia, Estonia and Latvia.

Indeed, NATO has since swelled to 28 nations and now counts among it members such countries as Poland, Romania and Hungary that were once part of the communist Warsaw Pact alliance.

But in Putin, Western leaders see an unpredictable, even dangerous leader. Harper said this week that Putin’s “imperial ambitions” have meant no peace for Russia’s neighbours.

The defence committee of the House of Commons in the United Kingdom has issued its own blunt report, concluding NATO is “poorly prepared” for any sort of Russian aggression and sets out what it deems are “urgent” actions to correct the failings.

“The NATO alliance has not considered Russia as an adversary or a potential territorial threat to its member states for 20 years. It is now forced to do so as a result of Russia’s recent actions,” it said.

Among the “alarming deficiencies,” it cited shortcomings in NATO’s ability to give warning of a conventional attack, and weaknesses in its command and control structure. The report even questioned whether the citizens of the member states have the appetite to honour the mutual defence commitment spelled out its founding treaty.

The U.K. defence committee report echoes many of the recommendations outlined in the expert panel report to boost NATO’s readiness on the borders of eastern members.

All that will top the agenda for the 28 alliance leaders at their meeting in Wales.

“The illegal Russian behaviour has created a completely new security situation in Europe and we will have to adapt to that,” Rasmussen said during an August visit to Ukraine.

Rasmussen has put nations on notice that he expects them to pony up resources to help pay for it.

“We will adopt a plan to boost our readiness in a changed world. We are looking closely at the forces we need, where they should be deployed, how fast they should be able to respond and how to reinforce them,” Rasmussen said, during a summer meeting with summit host Prime Minister David Cameron to provide an overview of the goals of the upcoming summit.

“These are ambitious plans. And we need the resources to match,” he said, adding that he will be seeking a “strong commitment” from nations to spend more.

“We are at a crucial point in history . . . the summit will be a turning point,” Rasmussen said.

More from the Toronto Star & Partners

LOADING

Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies of Toronto Star articles, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com