Major East Coast nor’easter to affect NJ?

Will a very powerful East Coast nor’easter affect New Jersey next week, possibly bringing snow and other impacts?

The potential impacts are uncertain at this point, as the forecast needs to be refined state-by-state, according to the Weather Prediction Center[2].

National Weather Service forecast[3]discussions[4] also stress the uncertainty this far in advance of the storm.

According to a Weather Prediction Center discussion, a “nor’easter bomb[5] (is) indicated off the mid-Atlantic Coast late Tuesday night.”

A bomb[6] is the rapid intensification of a cyclone (low pressure), with surface pressure expected to fall by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours, according to the weather service.

“Some of the deepest extratropical cyclones in modern record-keeping have affected the contiguous United States during the month of March,” according to the Weather Prediction Center discussion.

Extratropical cyclones include nor’easters[7], which are storms that generate winds from the northeast.

“One such perturbation is (forecast) to grow vigorously as it lifts up the Southeast coast Tuesday morning, then bomb off the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night when the jet (stream) strengthens via an injection of Arctic air from the Midwest,” the discussion says.

“The East Coast cyclone has the potential to produce late-season heavy snowfall over a wide swatch of real estate from Virginia to New England; that is a generality at this point,” the discussion says. “Much remains in terms of refining the forecast state by state. Another high-impact factor will be the powerful winds generated by this sprawling intense circulation, along with high seas, beach battery, coastal flooding, and so forth. Again, at this point, such sensible weather effects are simply attendant to the potential of such a storm.”

For Neptune, the National Weather Service forecast[8] calls for a chance of rain and snow on Tuesday, snow likely on Tuesday night and a chance of snow on Wednesday.