New York's Great Ballpark Injustice

Research Shows Many Yankee Stadium Homers Would be Fly Balls at Citi Field; Jeter Should Be Happy He's Not a Met

By

Jared Diamond

Updated June 30, 2011 11:26 p.m. ET

Ever since Citi Field opened before the 2009 season, the Mets' new home has drawn the ire of players and fans for its cavernous dimensions, making hitting a home run a Ruthian challenge. The situation became so dire that in January former Mets outfielder Jeff Francoeur called the stadium a "joke."

That same year, a new ballpark opened in the Bronx. Yankee Stadium quickly earned a reputation as a launching pad, with home runs flying out at a record pace. In the stadium's second month of existence, first baseman Mark Teixeira shattered his bat—and sent the ball soaring over the fence.

With that in mind, and the Subway Series set to resume in Queens this weekend, we decided to try a little experiment. Just how well would those Yankee sluggers do if they had to play half their games at Citi Field? The answer is striking.

With the help of HitTrackerOnline's Greg Rybarczyk and the ESPN Stats and Information Group, we looked at every home run hit at the new Yankee Stadium by seven key Yankees (through Sunday). Of the 242 homers, only 120 (49.6%) would have cleared the fence at Citi Field, assuming average weather conditions. Rybarczyk, an engineer, tracks the distance of all home runs hit in the major leagues, using software that accounts for trajectory and atmospheric conditions. Using his data, he is able to estimate the number of parks in which any round-tripper would be a home run.

Shortstop Derek Jeter would have been affected most, with just four of his 20 homers leaving Citi Field. For Robinson Cano, who hits most of his home runs into Yankee Stadium's short right field, the number is 18 of 40. Even Alex Rodriguez, one of the all-time best home-run hitters, would have lost 41% of his homers if he played his home games at Citi Field.

"You feel it," outfielder Nick Swisher said of playing in large stadiums. "You go to a place like Baltimore or Philly, you don't feel like you have to supply the power. You feel like if you just catch it where you need to, it's gonna go. But then you go to Oakland, and as soon as that sun goes down, you'd better get on that ball to get it out of there."

The Mets' inability to hit homers at Citi Field immediately sparked a fierce debate among fans: Was the new ballpark to blame for their team's power outage, or did the Mets simply lack firepower in the lineup? After all, no team in baseball has hit fewer homers than the Mets in the past three seasons—something had to be held responsible.

Statistically speaking, there's no doubt that Citi Field has played a tangible role. Wright, for example, hit 10 homers in his first season there after swatting at least 30 in the previous two years. Jason Bay has hit exactly 10 home runs in two seasons with the Mets after compiling 181 in the six years prior.

Then there's the effect of psychology. In 2009, Atlanta's Chipper Jones said he thought Wright was becoming frustrated with the stadium's dimensions. Though Wright denied it, other players have acknowledged that hitting at Citi Field requires a certain mental makeup.

"If you try to hit home runs at Citi Field, a lot of them are going to be flyouts and your average is going to go down, and you're not going to be that effective," outfielder Scott Hairston said. "You really have to battle yourself to stay within yourself and hit line drives."

Wright may have been hurt by Citi Field more than anyone because of his propensity for hitting home runs toward right-center field—a trait he shares with many of the Yankees' best hitters.

Cano, Teixeira and Curtis Granderson all hit a majority of their home runs in that direction, and Rodriguez also has power to the opposite field. None of the Yankee Stadium homers hit by Jeter or Rodriguez into right or right-center in the past three years would have left Citi Field.

With three games scheduled this weekend, the Yankees hope to survive—and quickly head back to their bandbox in the Bronx.

"Yankees' hitters are obviously excellent hitters," Hairston said, "and it makes them even better when they're playing in a ballpark like Yankee Stadium."

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.