The enterovirus test in the assessment of recreational water-associated gastroenteritis.

This study reports the results of series of analyses designed to identify possible mathematical relationships between the numbers of fecal streptococci vs the numbers of enteroviruses present (as measured by the enterovirus assay) in marine recreational waters in order to indirectly assess the relationship between enteroviral densities and subsequent risk of gastroenteritis among bathers exposed to marine waters contaminated with domestic sewage.

A database consisting of 2066 parallel fecal streptococci and enterovirus enumerations taken from 416 different marine water locations throughout the United Kingdom was used in the analyses.

Polychotomous logistic regression was used to model the probabilities of zero enterovirus, a possible infectious dose and a probable infectious dose of enterovirus being present over increasing fecal streptococci densities.

The results of the polychotomous logistic regression analyses showed that the probability of the absence of enterovirus (i.e., zero enteroviruses being present) remained higher than the probability of the presence of either a possible or probable infectious dose in 101 of seawater up to a fecal streptococci density of 1000/100 ml of sample (actual estimated probabilities for the three groupings of enterovirus densities described above, at a fecal streptococci density of 1000 equaled 0.44,0.44, and 0.12, respectively). (...)