Prediction: Pleasant summer

Robert Miller

Updated 11:37 pm, Friday, June 21, 2013

Za'More Carmack, 5, slides into the cooling spray a slip and slide while playing with his godbrother Tyrae McGee, 4, at Tyrae's home on Mill Ridge Road in Danbury, Conn., on Friday, June 21, 2013, the first day of Summer.
Photo: Carol Kaliff

Lifeguard Shawn Silva keeps an eye on swimmers at Candlewood Park in Danbury, Conn. on the first day of summer, Friday, June 21, 2013. Over 200 students from Broadview Middle School came Friday to swim and enjoy the warm weather at the park.
Photo: Tyler Sizemore

Swimmers play in the water at Candlewood Park in Danbury, Conn. on the first day of summer, Friday, June 21, 2013. Over 200 students from Broadview Middle School came Friday to swim and enjoy the warm weather at the park.
Photo: Tyler Sizemore

Puffy cumulus clouds point to the prospect of an afternoon shower as bathers beat the heat with a dip in the Sound at Silver Sands State Park in Milford, Conn. on Monday, June 24, 2013.
Photo: Brian A. Pounds

Collins said the center is predicting a hotter-than-average summer for New England, based on data from decades-long trends and the center's meteorological models for the coming year.

"The trend is with us," he said.

Collins said 2012 was one of the hotter summers on record nationally, "so it makes sense to not have an extreme year follow an extreme year."

Pindrock said there are several reasons why the long-range weather forecast is showing a relatively pleasant summer here.

One is that, unlike 2012, the high-pressure ridge that is the center of hot weather should lock in farther to the southwest than it did in 2012, thanks to the position of the jet stream -- the high-atmosphere air that flows across the United States.

In 2012, he said, that high-pressure ridge was centered in the Midwest -- close enough to bring more heat to New England.

Collins said the Climate Prediction Center believes the Midwest and Southeast will actually be cooler than average this summer.

Meteorologically, summer begins June 1, not on Friday's summer solstice.

For the first 21 days of the season, Pindrock said, temperatures in New York City have been about 0.4 of a degree lower than average.

The weather patterns also shouldn't be bothered by El Nino or La Nina -- the periodic warming and cooling of a huge area of the Pacific Ocean off the western coast of South America.

"It's a neutral year," Pindrock said.

While the National Hurricane Center has predicted a busy hurricane year, Pindrock said that doesn't necessarily mean a stormy summer for the state or the entire Eastern Seaboard.

"It's not the number of storms, it's whether they impact the U.S.," he said. "We can have a lot of hurricanes that just go off into the Atlantic."