Transcript

1.
The Determinants of Growth in the
States
Unit-I
BTCI06007

2.
Unit-I
Introduction to Economic Reforms and
Infrastructure Development:
• The determinants of growth in the states: effect
of economic reforms on regional inequality,
investment ratios at the state level, plan
expenditure, human resource and quality of
infrastructure.

3.
The Determinants of Growth in the
States
• This section emphasizes on the variation in
growth across states, especially in the postreforms period. A question which has been the
subject of much discussion in India and that is
whether the economic reforms are in some
ways directly responsible for the divergent
pattern of growth witnessed in the 1990s.
Growth of GSDP in individual states in terms of
the familiar explanatory variables conventionally
used in such analyses, i.e. the level of
investment in states, the quality of human
resources and infrastructure endowments.

5.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• The rationale of the various economic
reforms initiatives at the national level such
as abolition of industrial licensing and other
types of control over private investment,
liberalization of trade policy, financial sector
reforms etc. was that they would increase
efficiency and lead to higher factor
productivity.

7.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• Since these policies are generally applicable to all
states, there is a natural presumption that they
would provide efficiency gains for all these states,
which should increase the growth potential of
each state.
• On this view, the reforms generate potential gains
for each state and while some states may benefit
more than others, the reforms do not hurt any
states. If some states have decelerated in the
1990s this must arise from other factors,
including especially differences in policies
followed by individual states.

9.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• However, it is important to recognize that even
though the reforms themselves are nondiscriminatory, they will affect states
differently because of differences in state
specific characteristics and this could lead
to a deceleration in some states.

10.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• For example, opening the economy to foreign trade
can be viewed as improving the efficiency of
resource use in the economy as a whole and thus
potentially benefit all states, but if some states have a
greater comparative advantage in exports, while
others have developed a production structure
excessively dependent on uncompetitive import
substituting industries, the process of opening up
could well lead to an acceleration in growth in the
former in the short run while slowing it down in the
latter, as investment is likely to move from the latter to
the former, at least in the short run.

12.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• This implies of course that some of the
factors that make for greater competitive
advantage are immobile in the short run.
However over a period of time production
structures, including factors that account
for comparative advantage in particular
states, can change and states initially excluded
from acceleration on catch up.

13.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• The dismantling of industrial licensing provides
another example where economic reform could
generate differential outcomes leading to a
deceleration in some states.
• The abolition of licensing eliminated the central
government’s ability to spread investment evenly
across the country, With liberalization of investment
control and much stronger pressure of competition,
including especially competition from imports,
investment size began to be determined on economic
grounds and location also was decided to a much
greater extent on the basis of economic considerations.

15.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• It is very likely that in practice this led to a
reallocation of investment in favour of states
perceived as having better infrastructure
facilities, better labour skills and work culture,
and a more investor friendly environment. The
resulting reallocation of investment in the postreforms period could lead to a substantial
increase in investment in
corresponding
reduction in investment in less well endowed or
well governed states and a deceleration in their
growth.

17.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• The impact of economic reforms at the national
level on the growth rate of individual states
therefore depends upon the net effect of two sets
of forces. There are the positive efficiency
effects of reforms, which are potentially
available to all states and which by themselves
should improve factor productivity and growth
in all states. However, there is also a potential
reallocation of resources across states in search of
efficiency.

18.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• This reallocation may be driven by natural
comparative advantage e.g. a coastal location
for a petrochemical complex dependent on
imported feedstock, or initially favourable
conditions that are not immutable, such as
better infrastructure or a more favourable
state policy environment. It must be recognized
that such reallocation is necessary if the efficiency
benefits of the reforms are to be realized for
the country as a whole, but it can lead to
negative effects in particular states.

20.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• In certain circumstances these negative effects
can swamp the positive effects in which case
economic growth could actually fall.
• The solution to this problem does not lie in
backtracking from reforms, or even slowing
them down. On the contrary, the compulsions
of globalisation are such that India must
look to every possible means of enhancing
efficiency in resource use in order to
increase competitiveness.

21.
benefits of the reforms are to be realized for the
country as a whole, but it can lead to negative effects
in particular states.

22.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• Unless this is done, it will certainly not be
possible to sustain the growth achieved in
the post-reforms period, let alone accelerate
it further. The better positioned states must
therefore be allowed, and indeed even
encouraged, to perform up to their full
potential and the lessons learned from their
success should be spread elsewhere.

23.
better positioned states must be allowed, and
encouraged, to perform up to their full
potential

24.
Have economic reforms caused
regional inequality?
• However, the states which have not benefited
from the reforms, and indeed may even have
suffered because of a reallocation of investment
resources towards other better endowed states,
must be assisted by addressing the specific
deficiencies which are holding them back. To
do this, we need to have some idea of what are the
critical determinants of growth at the state
level, given the existing framework of national
policy, and how these determinants can be
influenced through policy.

26.
Investment Ratios at the State
level
• The rate of investment is generally regarded
as one of the most important factors
explaining growth in any economy and it is
therefore appropriate to consider whether
interstate differences in growth are
associated with differences in the rate of
investment in individual states.

28.
Investment Ratios at the State
level
• This is particularly so in view of the
possibility discussed above that economic
reforms in certain circumstances could lead
to a reallocation of investment away from
some states and towards others. If this is
indeed the explanation for the divergence in
growth rates observed in the 1990s, with some
states accelerating while others decelerated,
it should be reflected in divergent
movements in the investment ratio.

30.
Investment Ratios at the State
level
• It would be wrong to conclude from the lack of
a significant relationship between growth and
public investment that public investment is not
important.
• It is entirely possible, as we shall argue, that
acceleration of growth in future requires
increased public investment in critical areas,
including especially economic and social
infrastructure.

32.
Investment Ratios at the State
level
• Besides, private investment may also be more
directly correlated with growth because of
greater efficiency of resource use. These
results certainly suggest that private
investment is one of the principal drivers of
growth and slow growing states must
therefore pay special importance to
identifying the factors that would stimulate
private investment.

34.
Plan Expenditure
• In the absence of reliable data on public investment
the only substitute available is the size of plan
expenditure.
• Plan expenditure is not identical to public
investment, but it has the advantage that data are
available on an annual basis. Plan expenditure is
undertaken by both the central government and
the state government and what is relevant for the
development of a state is the volume of plan
expenditure in the state by both the centre as well as
the state.

36.
Plan Expenditure
• Unfortunately, while data on total plan
expenditure by the central government are
readily available, they cannot be disaggregated
according to the state in which the expenditure
was incurred. The only information available on
plan expenditure in a state therefore relates to the
state plan. Since a great deal of attention is
focused on the size of state plan expenditure in
public discussion in the performance of
individual states, it is worth exploring the
relationship between state plan expenditure
and growth of GSDP.

37.
Plan Expenditure
• Table 6 presents the average ratio of plan expenditure
to GSDP in each state in the 1980s and compares it
with the average ratio in the 1990s. The following
features are worth noting:
• i] State plan expenditure as a percentage of GSDP
has declined in almost all the states (Rajasthan
and Karnataka are the only exceptions). The
percentage for the 14 states taken together declined
from 5.7% in the 1980s to 4.5% in the 1990s.

38.
Plan Expenditure
• ii] The decline in plan expenditures as a
percentage of GSDP is not a phenomenon
unique to the slower growing states. The
drop is the largest in Bihar, but Gujarat and
Maharashtra, two of the best performers, also
show a significant decline, as do other good
performers such as Madhya Pradesh, Tamil
Nadu and West Bengal.

39.
Plan Expenditure
• iii] There is no obvious relationship between the
ratio of state plan expenditure as a percentage of
GSDP and growth performance across states in
either decade. Orissa, which had the highest ratio of
state plan expenditure to GSDP at 7.1% in the 1990s,
had a GSDP growth rate of only 3.25%. West Bengal,
with the lowest plan ratio of 2.7%, had a relatively
robust growth of 6.9%.
• Maharashtra, which was the second fastest growing
state, had an average plan ratio of only 3.97% well
below the average. Gujarat, which was the fastest
growing state, had a plan ratio only equal to the
average.

41.
Plan Expenditure
• Since state plan expenditures amounts to about
4.5% of the total GSDP of all 14 states, this
means that investment in the state plans is only
about 2.25% of GSDP, or only about 10% of
the total investment in the economy. In other
words, state plan expenditures can be very
important for certain sectors, but they are a
small part of total investment in the state,
and this explains the lack of any significant
relationship with growth.

43.
Plan Expenditure
• It is also true that many plan programmes
are ill designed and indifferently executed.
There is an accumulation of evidence that
many public expenditure projects at the
state level are ineffective in promoting their
stated economic and social objectives, which
makes their contribution to growth and
development highly questionable.

44.
Human Resources
• The quality of human resources, broadly
defined to mean the educational attainment
and skill level of the labour force, is another
factor that is generally regarded as a critical
determinant of growth. We should expect
that states with superior availability of
human skills, and more rapid growth in
these skills, are more likely to have higher
per capita GSDP and also experience faster
growth.

47.
Human Resources
• However, since data on the educational and skill
characteristics of the labour force are simply not
available, the literacy rate of the population is
commonly used as a proxy for the quality of human
resources. The data on literacy are summarised in Table 7.
• Table 7 confirms that literacy in slow growing states of
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Orissa is indeed very low.
However, the poor growth performance of these states
cannot be explained solely by the low levels of literacy.
• The situation in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and
Andhra Pradesh at the start of the decade was only
marginally better, and yet these states showed a much
better performance in the 1990s.

49.
Quality of Infrastructure
• The quality of infrastructure is widely
regarded as an essential determinant of
growth in the states. Infrastructure in this
context is clearly a multi-dimensional
feature. Agricultural growth depends upon
rural infrastructure such as the spread and
quality of irrigation, land development,
extent of rural electrification and the spread
of rural roads.

51.
Quality of Infrastructure
• Non-agricultural growth depends critically
upon sectors such as electric power, road
and rail transportation, ports and airports
and increasingly telecommunications.
• Good infrastructure not only increases the
productivity of existing resources going into
production and therefore helps growth, it
also helps to attract more investment that can
be expected to increase growth further.

53.
Quality of Infrastructure
• The values of composite index for different years
are summarized in Table 8. The relative index
values for individual states conform to some
expectations but also contain some surprises.
Bihar fits the pattern of expectations and scores
lowest on infrastructure. Its relative position has
also deteriorated over time.
• Somewhat surprisingly however, Uttar
Pradesh has a higher value for the index than
the average for the country and it scores higher
than Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and West
Bengal, all states that have grown markedly
faster

54.
Quality of Infrastructure
• The statistical results presented in this section
are clearly mixed. They provide welcome
confirmation that variations in the private
investment ratio are positively and
significantly correlated with variations in
growth.
They
also
provide
some
confirmation that certain elements of
infrastructure, and to some extent also
literacy, are associated with variations in
growth.

56.
Quality of Infrastructure
• They also suggest that public investment and
state plan expenditure are not nearly as
obviously correlated with growth as many
would have expected.
• While this may reflect data limitations, it also
suggests the need for some soul searching on
the effectiveness of these expenditures.