Scientists from the Commerce
Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) detail new information
that points toward development of mature El
Niño conditions during the remainder of 2002.

In this month's El
Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion,
NOAA scientists report that a climate phenomenon called the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) contributed to an increase in ocean surface
temperatures late last month. Ocean surface temperatures of 1
degree C (2 degrees F) above average were observed throughout
most of the equatorial Pacific at the end of May. This increase
in ocean temperature, combined with observations of abnormally
heavy rainfall in parts of South America, and the lack of it
over Indonesia suggests that El Niño continues to develop
as was originally forecast.

"The MJO is an important
factor contributing to the evolution of El Niño, because
it can influence the winds near the earth's surface. In late
May, the MJO contributed to a weakening of the normal east-to-west
flow throughout the equatorial Pacific, which has led to an increase
in ocean surface temperatures," said Vernon Kousky, meteorologist
at NOAA's Climate Prediction
Center.

"With last month's MJO activity,
we saw signs of the further developing El Niño, but it
is not unusual to see a cycle during which conditions intensify,
wane, then intensify again," he said. "The overall
trend, though, together with changes in weather and pressure
patterns in key regions of the tropics that are characteristic
of El Niño, suggest that further development towards a
weak-to-moderate El Niño will continue during the remainder
of 2002."

El Niño does not significantly
impact the U.S. during summer. Although it does historically
tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA forecasters
indicate that El Niño likely will not be strong enough
to affect hurricane activity this year, especially early in the
season. If El Niño continues to develop as expected, there
is a possibility that fewer hurricanes than normal may form in
the Atlantic during August to October, the peak of Atlantic hurricane
season. NOAA will update the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season outlook
in early August.

NOAA will continue to monitor
the evolution of El Niño and provide monthly updates.
NOAA scientists assert the actual global impacts of the forecasted
weak or moderate El Niño should be considerably weaker
than those experienced during the very strong 1997-98 El Niño.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
is an organization of the National Weather Service. NOAA's National
Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts
and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA
National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and
flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect
lives and property and enhance the national economy. To learn
more about NOAA National Weather Service, please visit http://www.nws.noaa.gov.