2003 San Diego Padres Baseball Graphs Review

Following are graphs and commentary regarding the 2003 season of the San Diego Padres. Questions or comments can be sent to me at dave@baseballgraphs.com.

The National League West Race

The first half of the year was not good to the Padres. In particular, they were 6-23 in May. They sank so far so fast that they almost looked Tigerish. From the end of June to the end of September, however, they were essentially a .500 team. Though they did return to form in September against some tough Western division competition.

Milwaukee and San Diego were essentially the same team, by the end of the year. Milwaukeee had more wins because they were slightly positive to their projected won/loss record (based on runs scored and allowed) and the Padres were slightly negative. Both teams had average offenses and terrible pitching/fielding.

At midyear (hold your mouse over the graph to see midyear positions), San Diego had the worst runs allowed record in the league (adjusted for ballpark). Their pitching improved in the second half, though their offense didn't.

The offense, by the way, had a league-average OBP (without even adjusting for ballpark). However, their slugging percentage was one of the worst in the league, and they didn't put their offensive elements together as well as they should. In fact, they fell below their projected runs scored by almost a third of a run per game. One reason: they batted only .245 with runners in scoring position (fourth worst in the majors) and only .214 with runners in scoring position and two out.

Move your mouse over this graph to view the status of each team at the season's midpoint (July 1st).

San Diego's fielding was actually somewhat above average (as indicated by the circle size) and their DER on ball in play was only somewhat below average. Their pitching, as indicated by FIP, was not so good.

Their pitchers also did not perform in the clutch; opposing batters hit .273 against the Padres with RISP, vs. .264 overall.

The DER stats in this table are based on limited data; the trend between months per team is more valid than the absolute number.

The Padres Day-by-Day

This graph says a lot. The Padres' offense was steadily average in the first half of the year, but the pitching was just awful. Check out the May FIP and DER. In the second half, the offense became more variable, and the pitching settled down to just plain worse than average.

San Diego has some good young pitching, but they didn't deliver this year. Only Adam Eaton had a FIP below 1.00 (0.94). Jake Peavy was at 1.87 and Brian Lawrence was at 1.38.

Mark Loretta was one of the biggest surprises of the year, finishing second to Marcus Giles in 2B Win Shares, and 18th overall.

This says it all: no Padres pitcher had more than eight Win Shares (though Rod Beck, with seven, was one of the best stories of the year). The Padres had the least pitching Win Shares of all National League teams.

Among sluggers, Ryan Klesko had only 13 Win Shares (actually, Loretta's SLG was almost as high as Klesko's). Obviously, Giles came along a little too late to contribute. And the Padres really missed Phil Nevin, who was seventh on the list with only 226 at bats.