Gerrymandering gives GOP huge structural advantage

Republican gains in statehouses during Obama's first midterm produced a priceless advantage when House districts were redrawn after the 2010 census, and AP has quantified that in a fascinating way:

"Republicans [last year] won as many as 22 additional U.S. House seats over what would have been expected based on the average vote share in congressional districts across the country. That helped provide the GOP with a comfortable majority over Democrats instead of a narrow one."

That's the most striking finding of a project the AP has been planning with members for weeks, "Redrawing America: Imbalance of Power ... how gerrymandering benefited GOP in 2016," by David Lieb:

"The AP scrutinized the outcomes of all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly seats up for election last year."

"The analysis found four times as many states with Republican-skewed state House or Assembly districts than Democratic ones. Among the two dozen most populated states that determine the vast majority of Congress, there were nearly three times as many with Republican-tilted U.S. House districts."

"Traditional battlegrounds such as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida and Virginia were among those with significant Republican advantages in their U.S. or state House races. All had districts drawn by Republicans after the last Census in 2010."

"[E]ven if Democrats had turned out in larger numbers, their chances of substantial legislative gains were limited by gerrymandering."

Senate won’t vote on Graham-Cassidy

There won’t be a vote on Graham-Cassidy. Photo: AP file

The Senate won't vote on its latest bill to repeal parts of the Affordable Care Act, Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy announced this afternoon. "We don't have the votes,” Cassidy announced after a lunch with Republican senators. " Am I disappointed? Absolutely.”

The back story: Two senior GOP aides said Graham and Cassidy asked not to hold a vote at the GOP lunch, after it became apparent the bill wouldn't pass.

Republicans agree to raise bottom tax rate, double standard deduction

Top White House and GOP leaders have agreed to raise the lowest individual tax rate from 10 to 12 percent, paired with doubling the standard deduction, 5 senior Republicans tell us.

Why this matters: Trump intends to sell the proposal tomorrow as a populist "tax cut." But as recently as yesterday top Republicans on Capitol Hill were nervous as they got word that Trump wasn't entirely thrilled with the product that had been hashed out in immense secrecy for weeks (with two members of his administration, Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin, working with GOP leaders.)

Late last night Republicans close to the process felt more confident that Trump had come around to supporting the framework — despite his misgivings about the corporate rate not being low enough and about the political risks of raising the lowest rate (even though many more people will now pay no tax because of the increased deduction, meaning they can accurately call it a tax cut for the middle class as well as for the wealthy.)

Big picture details: Republicans plan to collapse the number of brackets from seven to three. The standard deduction would almost double to $12,000 for a single filer and $24,000 for married couples, meaning Trump can accurately argue that many more low income earners would pay no tax under his plan. As we previously reported, the top tax bracket would fall from 39.6% to 35%.

Yes, but: Trump won't go into great detail when he talks about the tax plan tomorrow in Indiana, leaving plenty of negotiating room for the tax-writing committees in the House and Senate. As of yesterday morning Trump hadn't signed off on the final product, and as with all policy announcements involving Trump, Republican Hill leaders will be holding their breaths to some extent until the president actually utters the words. Speaking with conservative groups at the White House yesterday Trump, reassured them of his commitment when he gushed about the "tax cut" he was planning to unveil.

Sen. Corker won't seek re-election

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Republican Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee won't run for re-election next year, according to the Tennessean newspaper. Corker says he wants to act "thoughtfully and independently" for the rest of his term without worrying about running for re-election.

Why it matters: Corker is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and was a reliably GOP establishment vote. According to the Tennessean, Corker had "agonized" about running again in the face of a possible challenge from more conservative Republican opponents.

More STD cases recorded in 2016 than ever before

The bacteria which causes Chlamydia, the most prevalent STD in 2016. Photo: CDC via AP

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recorded over 2 million cases of STDs in 2016, the highest-ever number. The most prevalent disease, with 1.6 million cases, was chlamydia, followed by gonorrhea, with 470,000 cases.

Why it matters: The number of reported cases is on the rise. There were 4.7% more cases of chlamydia in 2016 than 2015, and an 18.5% increase in gonorrhea during that time period. Cases of syphilis, which are much less prevalent than chlamydia or gonorrhea, saw a 17.6% bump from 2015 to 2016.

Women in Saudi Arabia will soon be able to drive legally

Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday that it will lift its ban on female drivers. Photo: Hasan Jamal / AP

Saudi Arabia announced Tuesday that it will lift its ban on female drivers in June 2018, per the New York Times. The move is a victory for women's rights groups who have long campaigned for the ban to be overturned, and marks the end of what has long been known around the world as a symbol of the oppression of women in Saudi Arabia.

Between the lines: Despite the advancement, the country still has a ways to go in helping society adjust to the change. As the NYT points out, the kingdom has no processes in place to teach women how to drive or to obtain drivers licenses. Police will also need to be trained to interact with women, something that men and women in their Saudi society rarely do.

Sen. Blumenthal "99% sure" Manafort and Flynn will be charged

Sen. Richard Blumenthal told Politico on Tuesday that he's "99 percent sure there will be some criminal charges" from the Russia investigation, and that Michael Flynn and Paul Manafort "are the most prominent" people for whom charges are near-certain.

Blumenthal, a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said there could be others charged, but he's unsure whether they might include President Trump himself. Roger Stone said today after a closed-door appearance before the House Intelligence Committee that Manafort's lawyers believe he will be indicted soon.

Study: Autism is rooted mostly in genetics

The risk of developing autism is 83% genetic and 17% due to environmental factors, according to a new model, TIME reports. Scientists studied sibling pairs — ranging from half siblings who share one biological parent to identical twins who share 100% of their DNA — and tracked diagnoses of autism among them, per the study. They also accounted for the fact that siblings may be diagnosed at different times.

Why it matters: The new model adds perspective to the debate over whether the disorder is rooted in genetics or environmental factors. Previous studies of just twins have found a 90% correlation between developing autism and genetics.

McConnell: Graham-Cassidy is dead, moving on to tax reform

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said the Graham-Cassidy bill is dead, and the Senate's focus is now on tax reform. Photo: Ron Sachs / MediaPunch via IPx

Senate GOP leaders announced Tuesday that they will not hold a vote on the Graham-Cassidy health bill before the Saturday deadline, with Sen. Bill Cassidy conceding, "we don't have the votes." Mitch McConnell said the Senate will now focus its energy on "our next priority," tax reform, and added that they will return to health care once that's dealt with.

Senate Dems say it's time for bipartisan Affordable Care Act fix

Following news that the Graham-Cassidy health care plan would not receive a vote, Senate Democrats said that they were ready to move forward with the GOP to better the Affordable Care Act. At the Democrats' weekly press conference, Chuck Schumer said, "We are ready at this moment to roll up our sleeves and work in a bipartisan way to stabilize this system and make improvements."

One more thing: Schumer said that he'd spoken with Puerto Rico's governor and pushed back on President Trump's comments that recovery efforts in Puerto Rico were going well, saying, "I'm not blaming. I'm beseeching for quick action…It is not going fine. Absolutely not. They need help now."

Alabama Republicans go to the polls

When most senate candidates arrive to vote, they don't have to tie up their horses first. Luther Strange, the Trump-nominated incumbent, arrived on foot, while Roy Moore, the Bannon-backed front-runner, was on horseback.

Polls close at 7pm local time (8pm Eastern) in the Republican runoff for senate.

Facebook to stream NFL recaps, highlights

C_osett/flickr

Facebook and the NFL have finally struck a deal to stream game recaps and highlights, per Reuters. Some NFL documentaries will be included in the deal.

Why it matters: The move comes as both companies start to invest heavily in streaming video. Facebook launched its video platform "Watch" for video viewing across devices, especially on digital TV. New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft said in June, "There has been a dramatic shift … This year we're with Amazon and for us the future is OTT [streaming services.}"

Rounding it up: Discussions about streaming have been ongoing between the NFL and Facebook. The NFL has been aggressive about striking distribution partnerships with social platforms and Facebook has been aggressive about striking sports partnerships with leagues. Earlier this year, Facebook lost a bid to stream Thursday night NFL games to Amazon — which won the contract for $50 million dollars for the season. Twitter announced in May it will stream exclusive NFL content. Facebook landed professional baseball and soccer distribution deal earlier this year.

Apple, Fitbit and Samsung part of FDA trial aimed at speeding tech development

AP file photo

Some of the biggest names in tech and health care are taking part in a pilot program from the FDA that looks to make it easier for companies looking to offer technology approaches to issues that fall under the agency's purview.

Why it matters: A lot of tech companies have been focusing on relatively modest products in the "wellness" space rather than more ambitious efforts that require cumbersome and time-consuming regulatory approval.

"We need to modernize our regulatory framework so that it matches the kind of innovation we're being asked to evaluate, and helps foster beneficial technology while ensuring that consumers have access to high-quality, safe and effective digital health devices," FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said in a statement. "These pilot participants will help the agency shape a better and more agile approach toward digital health technology that focuses on the software developer rather than an individual product."