The stat folks claim there is no accurate way to predict the future, the positive progression players talk as if there is one. The stats says blackjack is a negative expectation game, where, unless you are counting, will surely lose if you play long enough.

The positive progression bettors, on the other hand, claim that streaks occur and they claim that positive progression betting is the best way to maximize the return during those winning streaks. Though streaks occur, they are, by definition, historical.

Thomason's book, proposes a positive progressive betting system based on the simple theory that the only way to win is to capitalize on elusive winning streaks. A basic problem is that you just don't encounter too many winning streaks that last more than 3-4 hands. Many times, it's difficult to put more than 2 winning hands together and tough times fall in a pattern like: win 1, lose 2; win 1, lose 3, win 2, lose 1, etc. Long winning or losing streaks are like $100 chips on the casino floor--very hard to find and great when you discover one, but don't pretend that you can depend on finding them.

You do the math. If the house has an edge, by winning more hands then the player, the odds will wear you down over the long haul. You have to win more money in less hands vs. what you lost in more hands. You have to understand, blackjack is opportunistic at its core.

Conclusion: learn to count or learn my system if you want to make money, else enjoy losing.

ON THE ONE HAND WE HAVE ALEX HOLDING HIS PAPER IN HAND WITH HIS SYSTEM WRITTEN UPON IT!ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE SENATOR JOSEPH MCCARTHY HOLDING IS PAPER IN HAND WHICH HE SAYS CONTAINS A LIST OF COMMUNISTS IN THE U.S. ARMY AND THE U.S. GOVERNMENT! THE SENATOR WON'T SHOW IT TO ANYONE-LIKE ALEX WON'T SHOW IT TO ANYONE. IT IS TRUE FOLKS-HISTORY DOES REPEAT ITSELF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!PROG

I havent even been here very long...all I hear is about your system...all the idiots backing you up are even worse...there is no system, all your doing is posting ideas, getting responces to better those ideas, applying them to your "SYSTEM" & calling them your own..

I havent even been here very long...all I hear is about your system...all the idiots backing you up are even worse...there is no system, all your doing is posting ideas, getting responces to better those ideas, applying them to your "SYSTEM" & calling them your own..

chump

Well, Moose,We are very lucky to have you here on this forum. I'm sure I have alot to learn from you.

I havent even been here very long...all I hear is about your system...all the idiots backing you up are even worse...there is no system, all your doing is posting ideas, getting responces to better those ideas, applying them to your "SYSTEM" & calling them your own..

chump

Well, Moose,We are very lucky to have you here on this forum. I'm sure I have alot to learn from you.[/quote]

You have about 115,000 + reasons to learn from me...cause thats how far ahead of you I am without your b.s. staratagy...

Conclusion: learn to count or learn my system if you want to make money,

Conclusion: Huh ??? Two weeks ago you confessed that your "system" did not work and you were abandoning it. I also recall that you asked members not to use it since they would lose. Now it works. This is really rather tiresome and you're not half as entertaining as Bug was.

I havent even been here very long...all I hear is about your system...all the idiots backing you up are even worse...there is no system, all your doing is posting ideas, getting responces to better those ideas, applying them to your "SYSTEM" & calling them your own..

chump

Well, Moose,We are very lucky to have you here on this forum. I'm sure I have alot to learn from you.[/quote]

You have about 115,000 + reasons to learn from me...cause thats how far ahead of you I am without your b.s. staratagy...

as far as your post goes...[/quote]

I would say, you are either an idiot, or an idiot plus stupid on top of each other. . What is the name of your school, your real name, and the name of your professor? After your statement above, we need to check your credentials.

Considering all the new competition in casino games, the overall reservoir of casino suckers like yourself is dwindling. The casinos need all this hype and suggestions and fraudulent claims that "you can win big money - if you use card counting to keep generating new wide-eyed sucker customers like yourself. And with all the new competition, they need that hype now more than ever. The LAST thing they want is someone telling the potential suckers the truth how to attack the very core of the game, how to attack the W/L percentage like I told you.

But you are and will remain forever stupid no matter what you think about yourself, Moose!

The LAST thing they want is someone telling the potential suckers the truth

And of course that someone would be you. How altruistic of you. I suppose we should be grateful.

AlexD30 said:

But you are and will remain forever stupid

Well that's real constructive. I have a question that's begging an answer (though I don't expect I'll get one). Your system is so good (or not, depending on the day of the week), you're cashing chips hand over fist, life couldn't be better...so why are you obsessed with persuading those that think your ideas (let's be kind) lack a little consistency? Go make money and let others do the same, no matter how they do it.

I don't usually get drawn into these kinds of senseless debates, ones that are obviously meant to inflame. But when I think of the folks here who consistently help, educate and offer informed opinions that benefit everyone, I have to wonder about this kind of drivel, that just seems to attack those who disagree.

I've used a cancellation method and my own corrupted version of Walt's, and have had sucess on a par with what you claim. But I'm not shoving it down anyone's throat or thinking anyone "stupid" for not playing my way. The only goal for all of us is to walk out of the casino on the plus side. Name-calling doesn't further that at all.

Alex Alex Alex...are my posts bugging you that much that you have to lash out at me? :)

BTW I don't count cards, hell I don't even know how...I have no one set stratagy, before I got here I just played random bets, now I play progession, tomorrow I may be playing something else...

Do me a favor Alex...go to your casino, win 5,000 using your stratagy & post your cheque or something to give you some credit here...right now from the sounds of it you dont have much & your tryin hard to gain it...

I've used a cancellation method and my own corrupted version of Walt's, and have had sucess on a par with what you claim. But I'm not shoving it down anyone's throat or thinking anyone "stupid" for not playing my way.

Well, JimFirst, when I'm shoving down anyone's throat something, for sure is not basic strategy or anything related to BJ. I can assure you this. :wink:

Second, is not such as "may way" of playing. It is a mathematical fact that if one is betting the way I described, will offset the W/L percentage of the game in relationship to money earned. Of course one has got to manage ROR and the size of his bets, but that's the way to offset the core of the game. A positive progression, is fine as long as you get winning streaks. Card counting is fine too as long as the positive counts match the winning hands and you are willing to play into the long run forever while earning small. But, if you want to make sure you win even if casino gets 10% edge over you in any particular session than the way I describe is the way to go. There is no compromise. Offset the W/L percentage and you have a guarantee winning game strategy.

I dont know how familiar are you with simulators but if you setup a game in which the house has 0.60% edge for the long run of millions of hands and if you bet only 2% of the bankroll when you are in red, you will beat the game 100%. Now, here comes the trick: You have to manage the negative hole and the size of your bets in such a way as to be able to run this to a conclusion. If you have the bankroll, than the size of your bets is no problem at all. I a million hands simulation I never encounter a single situation where I had to bet more than max bet in Vegas. Not even once!

Why do you people keep arguing with Alix? That is what he wants. Every board has someone like him. These people go from board to board stroking their ego and trying to stir things up. If you want to keep this board serious just ignore Alix. He will then stop posting here and go somewhere else to stir up trouble.

Hello all, I am new to this board and find your conversations interesting. I am a card counter and I do ok. I hear people talk about thier systems but they never really describe them. Is that because you are trying to sell them or something? I kind of understand progression from what you're posts, I may work that into my card counting a little. The system Alex is talking about needs explanation. Averaging the W/L ratio? Do you mean betting double when you lose? If that is it, I have seen many people play that way and walk away in tears.

Hello all, I am new to this board and find your conversations interesting. I am a card counter and I do ok. I hear people talk about thier systems but they never really describe them. Is that because you are trying to sell them or something? I kind of understand progression from what you're posts, I may work that into my card counting a little. The system Alex is talking about needs explanation. Averaging the W/L ratio? Do you mean betting double when you lose? If that is it, I have seen many people play that way and walk away in tears.

ThanksBill

Exactly, Betting double when you lose a bet. Betting 100% of your last bet. :roll:

Hello all, I am new to this board and find your conversations interesting. I am a card counter and I do ok. I hear people talk about thier systems but they never really describe them. Is that because you are trying to sell them or something? I kind of understand progression from what you're posts, I may work that into my card counting a little. The system Alex is talking about needs explanation. Averaging the W/L ratio? Do you mean betting double when you lose? If that is it, I have seen many people play that way and walk away in tears.

ThanksBill

See Bob,Most people here will share what they know except for a select few :roll: we won't name them.

I used to just play flat bets of $200 on two hands...I did VERY well for awhile doing that.

I've now moved to using Walters progression, which is betting units of 1-1.5-2-2.5. Now mind you I havent read his book, so I guess the quit points & stuff I havent learned yet, but I hope the book comes soon, so far in 3 tries using LARGE money I've come ahead twice as a big winner, could I lose? Of course...nothing is fool proof.

Alex on the other hand has a "fool proof system". This system is so good that Alex perfs to sit @ home on the internet & give people hints about it rather than get rich at the casino. Maybe one day he will post the system so we can all see how great it is...but if I was a betting man, which I am...I'll say he sorta disapears before that happens.

I don't think I understand what is going on with this board. I think we have Alex, who is apparently trying to sell some kind of a "system" that nobody on the board believes will work. Somehow, this has gotten under everybody's skin to the point that almost all constructive blackjack discussion has been put on hold while the board belittles and berates Alex and his system. At the same time we keep asking him for full disclosure. I wonder why we feel so compelled?

I'm not an advocate of Alex's system. But if you ask Renzey or Grifter or any others that play a top shelf professional game using a count system, they'd tell you that Thomason's system (or any progression for that matter) is flawed too. But we don't spend any time berating Walter. We have the typical count v progress debate, keep it civil, and try to learn in the process. Through it all, in fact, many of us have run out and bought his book and continue to play Walter's progression -- some w success, others I'm sure w/o much success.

So maybe we just like to have a rapid fire poster (just like Bug was and SLD before him) to stir up controversy and get a little drama on the board. But in many of these threads, we seem to have left blackjack behind.

jm2552: how about sharing that modified cancellation with us. I have messed around with labouchere for months and find it annoyingly difficult to modify for the better. but please post in a different thread. this one is getting longer and more worthless as time goes on.

so i have found it in an older post. is it the 40/20/20/20 thing? i read your posts but dont understand the the cancellation and adding system... it appears to be different than labouchere, but basically the same.

you begin with a win goal (say 20 units) then make a progression liek labby. except it starts larger and gets smaller (in this case 8-4-4-4) if you win the 8unit, you do first and last, just like labby (would be 4 +4).... but if you lose 8 unit just the next bet, and no adding the last number, so just 4 unit. but after you lost teh original 8 unit did u add it to the end? i think so. IS this right?

now i have developed my own prog which works similarly but which splits the bet up if it reaches a certain point... for example: if i am at a 20 unit wager, i would recalculate and have 2 smaller 10 unit goal progressions. but my frustration has been trying to come up with a way to recalculate. i think you may have given me an answer.

From what I have read on the board, progression is upping the bets when you are winning in units, 1 unit 1.5 units, 2.. etc. and quitting after 4 losses. I don't think anyone thinks progression is better than counting, just easier and an alternative. I can see the possibility of this, I see streaks all the time. As far as doubling your bets, well I have seen people try this all the time and sometimes it works, when it doesn't boy do you lose big. I think its the suckers strategy myself.

Personally I will stick to counting, I have spent lots of time learning to count. However I am going to vegas next week and I will try some progression along with it.

From what I have read on the board, progression is upping the bets when you are winning in units, 1 unit 1.5 units, 2.. etc. and quitting after 4 losses. I don't think anyone thinks progression is better than counting, just easier and an alternative. I can see the possibility of this, I see streaks all the time. As far as doubling your bets, well I have seen people try this all the time and sometimes it works, when it doesn't boy do you lose big. I think its the suckers strategy myself.

Personally I will stick to counting, I have spent lots of time learning to count. However I am going to vegas next week and I will try some progression along with it.

Bill

Nobody's doubling his bet after losing a hand. Who is playing doubling up?Oh, by the way, Are you doubling down on 11 or 10 after you lost the previous hand? Or, are you betting max on a true of +5 count after losing 4 hands in a row?

Hmm? .., You can double after a loss as well after a win. That way you get a lot of action and win either way. If you hit a losing streak you recover as soon as you win the first bet. If you hit a winning streak you make money right there.

Just merge Walters supper progression with Martingale plus the QP and you have a bright future at the tables.