The Rendon Group Snapshot Report – 02 November 2015

by TRG Alerts Admin on November 9, 2015

The Rendon Group

(02NOV15)

Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at Alert@Rendon.com or +1-202-745-4900.

Tensions in Zanzibar during Tanzania Elections

Police special forces ride in the back of a vehicle with unidentified men they have arrested in the Darajani area of Stone Town, Zanzibar on Oct. 26. PHOTO: AP

This week’s snapshot focuses on the recent general elections in Tanzania. Tanzania’s president elect, John Magufuli, was declared winner of the presidential election but opponents allege the polls were rigged. Tensions were particularly high in semi-autonomous Zanzibar and the electoral chief announced the archipelago’s poll results were annulled. International agencies and officials worry that the annulment could spark violent protests.

News summary of events during the week of 24OCT15 – 01NOV15

24OCT: Tanzania voted in national presidential, general, and local elections. (WP)

25OCT: Opposition party Chadema said police raided its tallying center and arrested party members after presidential and parliamentary polls closed. (Reuters)

26OCT: Opposition Chadema party said police detained 40 of its volunteers. (Reuters)

26OCT: Ahead of any official announcement of results, current Vice-President Seif Sharif Hamad from the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), declared himself the winner of elections. (AFP)

26OCT: Police fired tear gas at a crowd of CUF supporters celebrating in the semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar. (Reuters)
26OCT: Chadema party made allegations of electoral fraud in the presidential, general and local elections. (AFP)

28OCT: Opposition presidential candidate Edward Lowassa called for a recount of Sunday’s election for the presidency, citing voting irregularities in the election. (Reuters)

Sample of Third Party Validators regarding the tensions in Zanzibar during Tanzania elections

Kitila Mkumbo, Professor of Education, University of Dar es Salaam

“This election is sending signals that it is almost impossible to dislodge C.C.M. from power. It is so much connected to the government, very much connected to people’s lives. It’s present everywhere.”

“Taking a more aggressive stance against mining and gas companies is also something that resonates with the electorate, which explains why both parties have been keen on saying that their government will make corporations much more accountable so that Tanzania gets a fair share.”

Nicodemus Minde, international election observer and political adviser, International Law and Policy Institute (ILPI)

“It is clear from the CUF [Civic United Front] statement that the vice chairman was not present, neither was the director of elections. The statement annulling the vote issued by the two ZEC commissioners also indicates that there was no quorum, therefore the decision by the ZEC chair Jecha Salum Jecha was unilateral and no consultation was done.”

“Scrapping the vote seems less provocative than calling it for the CCM’s candidate, Ali Mohamed Shein, but (opposition) supporters in Zanzibar are angry and will be further incensed when the National Electoral Commission calls the union presidency for Mr. Magufuli.”

Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to the tensions in Zanzibar during Tanzania elections

1. Tanzania Votes in Closely Contested Election

Media: Wall Street Journal

Byline: Matina Stevis

Date: 25 October 2015

NAIROBI—Tanzania went to the polls Sunday in the most closely contested election in its history and the first that poses a substantial challenge to its one-party rule.

East Africa’s most populous country and second-largest economy has been ruled by Chama Cha Mapinduzi, or CCM, whose uninterrupted dominance since the late 1970s is now challenged by a cluster of opposition parties, the biggest of which is Chadema.

Dar es Salaam, Oct 26, 2015 (AFP) – Votes were being counted Monday in what is expected to be Tanzania’s tightest election race ever, with the governing party facing the first major challenge to its dominance in decades.

But the opposition Chadema party have alleged fraud in Sunday’s presidential, general and local elections.

Zanzibar, Tanzania, Oct 26, 2015 (AFP) – Zanzibar’s main opposition presidential candidate declared himself the winner Monday of elections on the semi-autonomous archipelago of Tanzania, ahead of any official announcement of results.

Seif Sharif Hamad from the opposition Civic United Front (CUF), the vice-president in the previous unity government, told reporters he had won Sunday’s polls, claiming to have seen official documents of final voting figures.

There has been no announcement from the Zanzibar Electoral Commission and the figures given by Seif could not be verified, but the declaration is likely to raise tensions on the islands.

Dar es Salaam, Oct 27, 2015 (AFP) – Tanzanian officials counted votes for a second day Tuesday as the election commission called for calm and warned only they can declare results.

The opposition Chadema party has alleged rigging in Sunday’s presidential, general and local elections.

On Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous archipelago which also voted for its own leader, the main opposition presidential candidate declared himself the winner on Monday, ahead of any official announcement of results.

The United States embassy in Dar es Salaam said in a statement it was “gravely alarmed” at the annulment, while Britain’s High Commissioner Dianna Melrose said she was “concerned” about Zanzibar’s decision and made a “call for calm.”

Zanzibar’s electoral commission Wednesday said the vote on the Indian Ocean islands — where the 500,000 registered electorate also voted for Tanzania’s national president — must be carried out again, citing “violations of electoral law”.

“I promise to deliver my election pledges, but we need to work together. Let us strive for peace and national unity,” Magufuli said in his first speech since being declared winner of the country’s presidential poll.

Officials announced Thursday that Magufuli had won Sunday’s presidential elections with over 58 percent of votes, cementing the long-running Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party’s decades-long grip on power.