Chris Wesseling

Goal Line Stand

Week 16 Rankings

Nobody can say with certainty that Stevan Ridley has escaped the doghouse this week after putting the ball on the ground three times in the past two games. The Boston Herald is convinced, however, that coach Bill Belichick will "give Ridley the rock" this week. He's earned that trust with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns on 252 carries this season. The Patriots realize they're not making a Super Bowl run without Ridley's ability to move the chains and grind out tough yards.

Ridley is coming off the only game of the season without double-digit carries, but that's mostly because the Patriots fell behind by four touchdowns versus the 49ers. At that point, passing-down specialist Danny Woodhead was better suited to the offense. Look for a bounce-back game from Ridley against a Jaguars defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backs this season.

QB Notes: Cam Newton’s offense is averaging 3.0 offensive touchdowns over the past seven games after averaging 1.7 in the first seven. Newton’s 7,502 passing yards are the second-most behind Peyton Manning’s 7,874 in a player’s first two seasons. … Aaron Rodgers is back on solid fantasy footing after passing for more scores last week than his three previous games combined. You’re not going to sit Rodgers in a plus matchup with your season on the line.

Tony Romo leads all QBs in passing yards over the past five weeks, ranking third in fantasy points behind Newton and Tom Brady. … Robert Griffin III was moving fine in Wednesday’s full practice and will start Sunday barring a setback. Since ditching the Wide 9 scheme, the Eagles have allowed Josh Freeman and Andy Dalton to complete just 27-of-61 passes (44.3 percent) at 5.2 yards per attempt. RGIII’s matchup isn’t quite as attractive as it looked a month ago, but his fantasy ceiling is still as high as any QB’s.

After Peyton Manning at No. 8, there’s not much separating Matthew Stafford from Sam Bradford, who is coming off the best fantasy game of his career. The Bucs defense has surrendered 30+ fantasy points to QBs five times this season, including the past two weeks versus Nick Foles and Drew Brees. … Even without a rushing score, Andrew Luck is a top-five fantasy QB over the past five weeks.

Russell Wilson’s offense is averaging 3.7 offensive touchdowns in the past seven games after averaging 1.4 in the first seven. Wilson is fantasy’s No. 2 QB over the past three weeks, trailing only Cam Newton. … Carson Palmer has a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that is fifth in the NFL since Luke Kuechly moved to middle linebacker in October. With Terrelle Pryor threatening to steal a series or two, Palmer is a risky fantasy play in championship week.

Last updated at 5:35 p.m. ET on Friday, December 21, 2012

Nobody can say with certainty that Stevan Ridley has escaped the doghouse this week after putting the ball on the ground three times in the past two games. The Boston Herald is convinced, however, that coach Bill Belichick will "give Ridley the rock" this week. He's earned that trust with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns on 252 carries this season. The Patriots realize they're not making a Super Bowl run without Ridley's ability to move the chains and grind out tough yards.

Ridley is coming off the only game of the season without double-digit carries, but that's mostly because the Patriots fell behind by four touchdowns versus the 49ers. At that point, passing-down specialist Danny Woodhead was better suited to the offense. Look for a bounce-back game from Ridley against a Jaguars defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing backs this season.

QB Notes: Cam Newton’s offense is averaging 3.0 offensive touchdowns over the past seven games after averaging 1.7 in the first seven. Newton’s 7,502 passing yards are the second-most behind Peyton Manning’s 7,874 in a player’s first two seasons. … Aaron Rodgers is back on solid fantasy footing after passing for more scores last week than his three previous games combined. You’re not going to sit Rodgers in a plus matchup with your season on the line.

Tony Romo leads all QBs in passing yards over the past five weeks, ranking third in fantasy points behind Newton and Tom Brady. … Robert Griffin III was moving fine in Wednesday’s full practice and will start Sunday barring a setback. Since ditching the Wide 9 scheme, the Eagles have allowed Josh Freeman and Andy Dalton to complete just 27-of-61 passes (44.3 percent) at 5.2 yards per attempt. RGIII’s matchup isn’t quite as attractive as it looked a month ago, but his fantasy ceiling is still as high as any QB’s.

After Peyton Manning at No. 8, there’s not much separating Matthew Stafford from Sam Bradford, who is coming off the best fantasy game of his career. The Bucs defense has surrendered 30+ fantasy points to QBs five times this season, including the past two weeks versus Nick Foles and Drew Brees. … Even without a rushing score, Andrew Luck is a top-five fantasy QB over the past five weeks.

Russell Wilson’s offense is averaging 3.7 offensive touchdowns in the past seven games after averaging 1.4 in the first seven. Wilson is fantasy’s No. 2 QB over the past three weeks, trailing only Cam Newton. … Carson Palmer has a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that is fifth in the NFL since Luke Kuechly moved to middle linebacker in October. With Terrelle Pryor threatening to steal a series or two, Palmer is a risky fantasy play in championship week.

Week 16 Running Backs

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Adrian Peterson

at HOU

Probable (abdomen)

2

Arian Foster

vs. MIN

-

3

Ray Rice

vs. NYG

-

4

C.J. Spiller

at MIA

-

5

Doug Martin

vs. STL

-

6

Matt Forte

at ARZ

-

7

Alfred Morris

at PHI

-

8

Stevan Ridley

at JAC

-

9

Jamaal Charles

vs. IND

-

10

Marshawn Lynch

vs. SF

Probable (back)

11

Knowshon Moreno

vs. CLE

Probable (ribs)

12

DeMarco Murray

vs. NO

Probable (foot)

13

Frank Gore

at SEA

-

14

Trent Richardson

at DEN

-

15

Darren McFadden

at CAR

-

16

Vick Ballard

at KC

-

17

Reggie Bush

vs. BUF

-

18

Chris Johnson

at GB

-

19

Steven Jackson

at TB

Probable (illness)

20

BenJarvus Green-Ellis

at PIT

-

21

Mikel Leshoure

vs. ATL

Probable (calf)

22

Shonn Greene

vs. SD

-

23

LeSean McCoy

vs. WAS

Probable (concussion)

24

Ahmad Bradshaw

at BAL

Questionable (knee)

25

Michael Turner

at DET

-

26

Darren Sproles

at DAL

-

27

Jonathan Dwyer

vs. CIN

-

28

DeAngelo Williams

vs. OAK

-

29

David Wilson

at BAL

-

30

Beanie Wells

vs. CHI

-

31

Montell Owens

vs. NE

-

32

Mark Ingram

at DAL

-

33

Jonathan Stewart

vs. OAK

Questionable (ankle)

34

Jackie Battle

at NYJ

-

35

Bryce Brown

vs. WAS

-

36

Alex Green

vs. TEN

Questionable (concussion)

37

Joique Bell

vs. ATL

-

38

Bilal Powell

vs. SD

-

39

Jacquizz Rodgers

at DET

-

40

Ben Tate

vs. MIN

-

41

Pierre Thomas

at DAL

Questionable (knee)

42

Danny Woodhead

at JAC

-

43

Ronnie Brown

at NYJ

Probable (hamstring)

44

Shane Vereen

at JAC

-

45

Isaac Redman

vs. CIN

Questionable (ankle)

46

Mike Goodson

at CAR

-

47

Ronnie Hillman

vs. CLE

-

48

LaMichael James

at SEA

-

49

Ryan Grant

vs. TEN

-

50

Robert Turbin

vs. SF

-

51

DuJuan Harris

vs. TEN

-

52

Mike Tolbert

vs. OAK

-

53

Jason Snelling

at DET

Sidelined (leg)

54

Montario Hardesty

at DEN

-

55

Curtis Brinkley

at NYJ

-

56

Cedric Peerman

at PIT

Questionable (ankle)

57

Kahlil Bell

at ARZ

-

58

Felix Jones

vs. NO

-

59

Daryl Richardson

at TB

-

60

Peyton Hillis

vs. IND

-

61

Lamar Miller

vs. BUF

-

62

Tashard Choice

at MIA

-

63

John Kuhn

vs. TEN

Probable (hamstring)

64

Kregg Lumpkin

at BAL

-

65

Bernard Pierce

vs. NYG

Questionable (concussion)

RB Notes: Adrian Peterson has the same number of rushing yards (1,313) since Week 7 as Arian Foster has for the entire season. Peterson has had 75 more rushing yards than the Vikings have had passing yards in five games this season. Only O.J. Simpson in 1973 had more such games.

C.J. Spiller leads all running backs with 11.3 yards after the catch this season. He totaled 130 yards on 25 touches in Week 11 versus the Dolphins. … No running back does a better job of avoiding negative plays than Marshawn Lynch, who rushed for 103 yards in the previous meeting with the 49ers. … Matt Forte has an excellent matchup against a Cardinals defense that has allowed 160+ rushing yards in six of the past nine games. The Bears are talking Kahlil Bell as a goal-line horse with Michael Bush out of the lineup.

Jamaal Charles gets a mulligan for last week’s goose egg versus the Raiders. It was his first game under 100 yards from scrimmage in the past six weeks. … Knowshon Moreno is fourth in fantasy points over the past three weeks. … Frank Gore had a season-high 182 yards from scrimmage in his previous meeting with the Seahawks. … Trent Richardson is averaging just 2.9 YPC over the past three weeks but is fifth in fantasy points over that span thanks to a handful of touchdowns.

Darren McFadden’s ankle is no longer a concern after taking a career-high 30 carries against the Chiefs last week. … Vick Ballard is a good bet for 20+ touches and 100+ yards against that same Kansas City defense. …. Reggie Bush is coming off his most carries and rushing yards since Week 2, and timeshare back Daniel Thomas is out for the season. … Chris Johnson would have been held under 30 yards versus the Jets if not for the 94-yard jailbreak touchdown. If you start him at Green Bay, it’s with the belief that he can break off another long run.

Steven Jackson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are two of the hottest backs in the league, but they both have forbidding matchups against stout front sevens. … Mikel Leshoure is averaging a touchdown per over his last seven games. … LeSean McCoy will get the start versus the Redskins, but coach Andy Reid will not give him a full workload. A true boom-or-bust runner, Bryce Brown has 17 of 87 carries for 10+ yards and 22 totes for zero or negative yards. With McCoy back in the lineup, Brown is a mere flex option versus the Redskins.

We suspect Ahmad Bradshaw will successfully convince coach Tom Coughlin that his knee is healthy enough to play this week, but he’s not a good bet for 15+ touches against the Ravens. … Forcing five missed tackles and averaging 4.8 yards after contact per attempt against the league’s No. 1 run defense, Mark Ingram is coming off his best game of the season.

Week 16 Wide Receivers

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Calvin Johnson

vs. ATL

Probable (knee)

2

A.J. Green

at PIT

-

3

Brandon Marshall

at ARZ

Probable (hamstring)

4

Andre Johnson

vs. MIN

-

5

Julio Jones

at DET

-

6

Wes Welker

at JAC

Questionable (ankle)

7

Reggie Wayne

at KC

-

8

Vincent Jackson

vs. STL

-

9

Randall Cobb

vs. TEN

Probable (shoulder)

10

Demaryius Thomas

vs. CLE

-

11

Dez Bryant

vs. NO

Probable (finger)

12

Roddy White

at DET

Probable (knee)

13

Danny Amendola

at TB

-

14

Victor Cruz

at BAL

-

15

Cecil Shorts

vs. NE

-

16

Steve Smith

vs. OAK

-

17

Marques Colston

at DAL

-

18

Mike Wallace

vs. CIN

-

19

Miles Austin

vs. NO

Probable (hip)

20

Eric Decker

vs. CLE

Probable (ankle)

21

Pierre Garcon

at PHI

Probable (foot)

22

Hakeem Nicks

at BAL

Probable (knee)

23

Stevie Johnson

at MIA

-

24

Michael Crabtree

at SEA

-

25

Torrey Smith

vs. NYG

Questionable (concussion)

26

Danario Alexander

at NYJ

-

27

Lance Moore

at DAL

-

28

James Jones

vs. TEN

-

29

Brandon Lloyd

at JAC

Questionable (knee)

30

Josh Gordon

at DEN

-

31

Mike Williams

vs. STL

-

32

T.Y. Hilton

at KC

-

33

Kenny Britt

at GB

Probable (-)

34

Jeremy Maclin

vs. WAS

Probable (back)

35

Greg Jennings

vs. TEN

-

36

Antonio Brown

vs. CIN

Probable (illness)

37

Justin Blackmon

vs. NE

-

38

Anquan Boldin

vs. NYG

-

39

Larry Fitzgerald

vs. CHI

-

40

Sidney Rice

vs. SF

Questionable (knee)

41

Brian Hartline

vs. BUF

Questionable (back)

42

Donnie Avery

at KC

Probable (ribs)

43

Nate Washington

at GB

-

44

Denarius Moore

at CAR

-

45

Brandon Gibson

at TB

-

46

Greg Little

at DEN

-

47

Jeremy Kerley

vs. SD

-

48

Chris Givens

at TB

-

49

Golden Tate

vs. SF

-

50

Brandon LaFell

vs. OAK

Probable (foot)

51

Rod Streater

at CAR

-

52

Riley Cooper

vs. WAS

-

53

Kris Durham

vs. ATL

-

54

Andrew Hawkins

at PIT

-

55

Darrius Heyward-Bey

at CAR

-

56

Andre Roberts

vs. CHI

-

57

Dwayne Harris

vs. NO

-

58

Brandon Stokley

vs. CLE

-

59

Randy Moss

at SEA

-

60

Alshon Jeffery

at ARZ

-

61

Dexter McCluster

vs. IND

-

62

Domenik Hixon

at BAL

-

63

Marvin Jones

at PIT

-

64

Jason Avant

vs. WAS

-

65

Damian Williams

at GB

Sidelined (hamstring)

WR Notes: After the Cardinals talked about using Patrick Peterson to shadow Calvin Johnson, they ended up using box-and-one and gunner coverage. Johnson responded with his NFL record-tying seventh consecutive 100-yard game. … The past eight games have been the most productive stretch of Andre Johnson’s career, averaging 8.4 catches and 120 yards per game. He needs seven receptions and 140 yards over the final two games to join Marvin Harrison as the only receivers with 100+ catches and 1,500+ yards in three seasons.

Demaryius Thomas is a good bet to bounce back from a disappointing performance, but he does have a tough matchup versus Joe Haden. … Dez Bryant and Roddy White will be playing at less than 100 percent, but they’re both top-12 fantasy receivers on the season. Now isn’t the time to sit them in the fantasy playoffs. … Danny Amendola has at least nine targets in every game he’s finished this season. He’s facing the league’s worst passing defense this week.

Victor Cruz’s 2.38 yards per route run is the most of any receiver lining up in the slot this season. …. Bill Belichick heaped the sort of praise on Cecil Shorts that he usually reserves for Fred Jackson. … Steve Smith is 12th in fantasy points over the past five weeks. … Mike Wallace is eighth in fantasy points over the past three weeks. … Pierre Garcon gets a bump with RGIII back under center.

Michael Crabtree is coming off the best three-game stretch of his career, averaging 11.7 targets, eight catches and 100 yards. … Ever wonder why Stevie Johnson has an inordinate level of success against premier cover corners such as Darrelle Revis and Richard Sherman? Pro Football Focus says it’s because the Bills allow him to freelance more than other teams do. … Torrey Smith has a great matchup versus the Giants, but his status is in question with a concussion. … Danario Alexander will see plenty of Antonio Cromartie with Malcom Floyd out for the season. … The Cardinals have gone five straight games without a passing touchdown and have just three over their last 10 games.

Week 16 Tight Ends

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Aaron Hernandez

at JAC

Questionable (ankle)

2

Jimmy Graham

at DAL

Probable (wrist)

3

Tony Gonzalez

at DET

-

4

Jason Witten

vs. NO

-

5

Heath Miller

vs. CIN

-

6

Martellus Bennett

at BAL

-

7

Owen Daniels

vs. MIN

Probable (hamstring)

8

Greg Olsen

vs. OAK

Probable (back)

9

Dennis Pitta

vs. NYG

-

10

Brandon Myers

at CAR

-

11

Tony Scheffler

vs. ATL

-

12

Kyle Rudolph

at HOU

Probable (shoulder)

13

Jermaine Gresham

at PIT

-

14

Brent Celek

vs. WAS

Probable (concussion)

15

Vernon Davis

at SEA

-

16

Jermichael Finley

vs. TEN

-

17

Antonio Gates

at NYJ

-

18

Ben Watson

at DEN

-

19

Scott Chandler

at MIA

Questionable (groin)

20

Marcedes Lewis

vs. NE

-

21

Dallas Clark

vs. STL

-

22

Rob Housler

vs. CHI

Questionable (knee)

23

Jacob Tamme

vs. CLE

-

24

Jeff Cumberland

vs. SD

-

25

Dwayne Allen

at KC

-

26

Joel Dreessen

vs. CLE

-

TE Notes: Aaron Hernandez has eight more receptions than any other tight end over the past three weeks. He gives owners a decided advantage in championship week. … Tony Gonzalez already has more receptions and yards than he’s had in any season with the Falcons. … Jason Witten needs six receptions to break Gonzalez’s tight end record of 102 set in 2004.

Heath Miller needs eight receptions and 19 yards over his final two games to set career-highs in an All-Pro caliber season. … Greg Olsen’s 1.85 yards per route run is the second-highest total among tight ends. … Dennis Pitta is fantasy’s No. 1 tight end over the past five weeks, thanks in large part to last week’s monster 7/125/2 stat line. … Brandon Myers is just a borderline TE1 after being held under 20 yards in back-to-back games.

Only Hernandez and Jimmy Graham have drawn more than Tony Scheffler’s 22 targets over the past three weeks. He’s Matthew Stafford’s second option in the passing game. … Brent Celek has a plus matchup against a Redskins defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. … Facing the Broncos, Ben Watson is the only tight end with a better matchup this week.

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling