NFL Week 11: Sunday Night Football – Green Bay @ Washington

Green Bay 50.5 @ Washington -3.5

Monday November 21, 12:30pm AEDT

Green Bay (4-5)

Grenen Bay was never in with a chance in their last game after Tennessee’s first play from scrimmage went for a long touchdown run and the route was on. The Packers went on to lose 47-25. They were out passed 9.8yps to 5.6yps and out gained overall 7.6yppl to 5.5yppl. Green Bay was minus three in turnovers and was sacked five times. The Packers did lose their LT and RG during the game which aided the sacks.

Washington (5-3-1)

The Redskins jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Minnesota, gave up the next 20 points, before finally scoring the final 12 points in a 26-20 victory. They out rushed Minnesota 128-47 yards and 4.6ypr to 2.2ypr. They out passed the Vikings 7.6yps to 6.6yps and out gained Minnesota 6.3yppl to 5.2yppl.

Rosters

Washington WR DeSean Jackson is questionable and they will also be without suspended LT Trent Williams.

The Verdict

My numbers favour Washington by 5.5 points and project about 49 points. Those number don’t take into account a very solid bounce back situation, which is 59-23-5, including 43-10 ats for non-divisional teams bouncing back from a bad loss last week. Green Bay has allowed 30 or more points in four of their last five games and the one game they didn’t was the 10-point effort by the Bears who lost their quarterback early in that game. The Packers have countered that by scoring at least 25 points in each of their last four games as well. Washington is playing well this year but this is a defence that has allowed at least 20 points in every game but their game against Baltimore, who has an anaemic offense. The Redskins have also scored at least 23 points in every home game since week two so they will get their points as well.

Forecasts call for a lot of wind with possible gusts up to 50 mph. If not for the wind I would have considered the over in this game. Washington doesn’t blow any one away and this is now or never for the Packers who won here 35-18 in last year’s playoffs. The Packers are 5-1 ats the last six times they’ve gone on the road as underdogs and the one loss was during the regular season last year when they were playing without most of their offensive lineman. The situation is too strong to ignore and the Packers are too proud of an organization to play like they have been playing.