OC members of Congress have firm grip on their seats

Congressional District 45

The retirement of Rep. John Campbell, R-Irvine, finds two Republicans, a Democrat and an independent vying for the most competitive House race in Orange County. Read an in-depth analysis of the race and the candidates by Politics Editor Martin Wisckol in Sunday's Register.

Two political dynamics can sum up Orange County congressional races: the power of incumbency and the advantages of representing a district that leans heavily either Republican or Democratic in voter registration.

For those reasons, five of Orange County’s six congressional seats are considered “safe,” meaning the incumbent representing the majority party in that district likely will carry the day, according to the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, which evaluates races and their potential outcomes. The center’s analysts categorize House congressional races four ways: “safe,” “likely,” “leans” or a “toss-up” for either Democrats or Republicans.

So representatives seeking re-election – Ed Royce, Loretta Sanchez and her sister, Linda Sánchez, Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher and Alan Lowenthal – have a running start in making the June 3 primary’s top two, as well as taking the general election, Nov. 4.

Of all 435 House races nationally, 199 are rated “safe” Republican, and 168 are “safe” Democratic, the center says. California has only one toss-up race, District 52 in San Diego County, represented by Scott Peters, D-La Jolla.

Sometimes, the party asks someone to run “who is willing to take the loss and step up for the ballot,” said Jeff Adler, a political consultant in Long Beach. Such is the case in several Orange County races.

Still, challengers are at the ready. For instance, Republican Andy Whallon is taking on Democratic freshman Rep. Alan Lowenthal, who represents Long Beach and parts of Orange County. Whallon will focus on the Affordable Care Act, one of several flashpoint topics that challengers cited, including immigration, education and the economy.

After all, they are aware that Americans aren’t exactly happy with Congress. In 2013, Americans gave Congress its lowest annual average approval rating in the history of Gallup polling – 14 percent.

Here is a race-by-race rundown of Orange County races, candidates, their funding and their issues:

District 39 – Fullerton area

Royce, a Fullerton Republican serving his 11th term, should have no problem winning a 12th against challenger Peter Anderson. A retired software engineer, Anderson, a Democrat, has never held an elected position and has just over $1,000 in his campaign war chest.

In a way, the race for the 39th demonstrates all the reasons that Orange County seats are considered “safe” for the party that holds them.

Royce has advantages of incumbency: He has name recognition because of his tenure and because he has attained a leadership position in the House; he is chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee. He is a strong fundraiser with $1.4 million on hand as of March 31, according to campaign filings, and can count on Republican Party support to get out the vote and for endorsements, if he needs it.

In addition, the district’s make-up of registered voters tilts toward Royce: 38.9 percent Republican, 32.3 percent Democratic and 23 percent declined to state, according to the political website aroundthecapitol.com.

Anderson, in contrast, has an impressive private sector and academic background and is active in the local Democratic Party, but reported only $1,065 cash on hand as of March 31.

Both candidates have at least some concerns about the Affordable Care Act. Royce singled out the 30-hour, full-time work provision, which he believes drives from the workforce those workers whose median income is under $30,000 annually. Royce voted for legislation that would replace the 30-hour provision with 40 hours as the definition of full time.

Anderson says attempts in the House to repeal the Affordable Care Act are “irresponsible” and supports “Medicare for all.”

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