Economic Weekly: Exploring NZ labour productivity

The NZ economic outlook is solid, supported by a number of tailwinds including population growth, income growth and low interest rates. However, risks to the outlook remain. One such risk is the potential for labour capacity constraints to slow GDP growth. This week on page 2 we use recently-published productivity data to explore this in more detail. Key local events for the week include Tuesday’s travel and migration data (see Chart of the Week) and Fridays’ trade balance data. Offshore, trade tensions and remain elevated and are likely to continue to drive market sentiment. Global data this week includes the ECB and BOJ rate announcements on Friday, Australian CPI on Tuesday and US Q1 GDP overnight Friday.

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Jane Turner

Senior Economist

Originally hailing from sunny Nelson, Jane moved to Auckland to join the ASB team in 2008. As Senior Economist, Jane's main focus is co-ordinating the team’s macro-economic forecasts. In this key role, Jane was thrilled by the team’s twice consecutive win of the Consensus Economics Forecast Accuracy award.

During her decade-long career in economic forecasting, Jane has gained a thorough knowledge of the New Zealand economy. Her current focus is on New Zealand GDP growth, including both manufacturing and the construction sectors. She has spent time forecasting most sectors of the economy, including inflation, trade, housing, labour and financial markets.

Prior to joining ASB, Jane honed her macro-economic forecasting skills at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Jane is a qualified scarfie, attending Otago University and graduating with a Bachelor of Commerce in Economics with 1st class honours. In 2014, she took a career break from ASB to travel the world and learn to snowboard.

Mark Smith

Senior Economist

Mark joined ASB in 2017, with over 20 years of public and private sector experience working as an economist in New Zealand and the UK.

His resume includes lengthy stints at ANZ and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and he has also worked at the Bank of England, HM Treasury and the New Zealand Transport Agency. Mark's areas of specialisation include interest rate strategy, macro-economic analysis and urban economics.

Born and bred in the Waikato, Mark studied at Waikato University where he graduated with a Master of Social Sciences, majoring in Economics.

Mark's key strengths are the ability to use his extensive experience, inquisitive nature, analytical ability, creativity and pragmatism to dig a little deeper and to deliver common sense solutions to tackle complex problems.

When not at work Mark likes to travel, keep fit and spend time with his friends and family.

Nathan Penny

Senior Rural Economist

Nathan's bold predictions and his ability to call it as he sees it sets him apart from other New Zealand rural economists. In particular, his controversial, but ultimately successful $6.00/kg MS 2016/17 milk price forecast is case in point.

He has a natural talent to distil complex issues and translate them into user-friendly formats for diverse groups, including farmers and financial markets participants. Nathan brings unique perspectives and thought leadership to the country's rural and broader export sectors.

Nathan joined ASB as the Rural Economist in 2013, having cut his teeth at the New Zealand Treasury. He hails from the Kapiti Coast and studied at Massey University where he graduated with a Master of Applied Economics.