The two main things we’ve learned about cabinet exit betting since GE2010 is that Cameron is loathe to make changes and even when things look grim, almost terminal, for a minister they can survive. Secondly politicians who’ve reached that level are super-resilient and it is easy to underestimate their desire to hang on in there.

In the last reshuffle last year there was only one change when many other names had been tipped and today there’s a lot of speculation about the culture secretary, Maria Miller.

Both the bookies quoting prices in this market, Ladbrokes and PaddyPower now make her joint favourite and there are suggestions that there might be a post-May elections re-shuffle.