June 10, 2016

The Phillies' first round draft picks since 1965

On June 9, 2016, the Philadelphia Phillies selected Mickey Moniak, a high school outfielder from La Costa Canyon High School in Carlsbad, California, with the first overall pick in the 2016 MLB first-year player draft (also known as the Rule 4 draft). He is the first high school outfielder taken number one overall since Justin Upton was selected first overall in 2005 by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Soon he'll be signed and sent to the congested and competitive minor leagues where the Phillies will evaluate him and improve his blooming talents to the point where Moniak is patrolling the green outfield grass at Citizens Bank Park during a World Series game. He is also the 55th player to be drafted in the first round by the Phillies since the draft was initiated 51 years ago in 1965.

Before 1965, team scouts traveled the country in search of players who could help the big league club. Amateur players were signed on the spot. Typically teams with the largest bankrolls, like the New York Yankees and the St. Louis Cardinals, were able to sign the best players while the poorer franchises, such as the Phillies and St. Louis Browns, were not. During baseball's 1964 Winter Meetings, an amateur player draft was proposed, voted upon, and accepted. The idea was to "level the playing field" and create greater parity in Major League Baseball. To an extent, the system worked and continues to work to this day. Prior to 1965, the New York Yankees appeared in 27 World Series and won 20 of them. After 1965, the Yankees appeared in 11 World Series and won 7.

Conversely, the Philadelphia Phillies were among the worst-run franchises in all of Major League Baseball. The team was in a viscous cycle where fans didn't come to Baker Bowl or Shibe Park because the team didn't win many games. They didn't win many games because they didn't have any good players because they couldn't afford to sign better players due to the lack of gate sales. For franchises like the Phillies, the draft was an opportunity to sign quality players, develop them in the minor leagues, and once in the big leagues, bring fans out to the ball park.

The old cliche "the draft is not a science" rings true. Front offices can project a player's potential, but it is up to the player to prove whether or not the projections are true. So where does Mickey Moniak fall in terms of Phillies first round draft picks? How many of the Phillies' first round choices: Make it to the majors? Actually play a game for the Phillies? Participate in a World Series? (The following statistics will consist of players chosen between 1965 and 2015.)

A total of 34 players (63%) drafted by the Phillies in the first round have played in a Major League game. Twenty-seven of those 34 players (50%) appeared for the Phillies in a major league contest, while only 12 of the 54 (22%) played in a World Series game. (Two players drafted by the Phillies did not sign with the club, Mike Adamson (1965) and J.D. Drew (1998)). The negative trend should be expected. These numbers demonstrate how challenging it is to make it to the major leagues and how rare it is to play in a World Series.

Also, the Phillies have historically favored drafting a high school player in the first round. Of the 54 players drafted in the first round, an astounding 40 players (74%) were drafted out of high school. Twenty-one of those 40 (52%) made it to the majors while nine played in a World Series. Since 2000, the Phillies have drafted a high school player in the first round 11 times (79%).

On the other hand, only 14 players were drafted out of college ( 26%) since the first draft in 1965. In fact, the Phillies have only drafted three college players since 2000: Chase Utley (2000), Joe Savery (2007), and Aaron Nola (2014). All three have played in a major league game for the Phillies, while Chase Utley played in two World Series for the Phillies and helped them win the 2008 fall classic.

The numbers are scattered and don't ultimately determine whether or not the Phillies "choose the right player" during the first round. The franchise has changed a lot since 1965. They moved out of Connie Mack Stadium into Veterans Stadium in 1970 and out of Veterans Stadium into Citizens Bank Park in 2004. Their philosophy on how to field a winning ball club has swayed between building from within to patching the team with free agents and now back to building from within again. The Phillies utilized the draft to foster a winning culture during their most recent era of success. Between 1996 and 2007, the Phillies "made the right pick" more often than not. Of the 12 players drafted by the Phillies in the first round, seven were members of World Series rosters: Adam Eaton (1996), J.D. Drew (1997), Pat Burrell (1998), Brett Myers (1999), Chase Utley (2000), Cole Hamels (2002), and Travis d'Arnaud (2007).

It's still early to discern whether or not the Phillies "made the right pick" since they drafted Anthony Hewitt in 2008. Indeed, only two of the seven players chosen since 2008 have appeared in the majors. But it appears that the Phillies have drafted well recently, as J.P Crawford (2013) and Cornelius Randolph (2015) were ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 this past February at 6th and 88th respectively. Hopefully Mickey Moniak continues this trend of quality first round draft selections.

A breakdown of all players selected by the Phillies in the first round since 1965 is below: