One of the best tools that FF Today provides is the fantasy
football points vs. feature and, more specifically, the remaining
Strength of Schedule.
Using this feature, it is my hope to augment these features and
refine them even further. Over time, it should be proven in this
column that different styles of players score differently against
different opponents. For example, perhaps a possession receiver
makes for a better play against a certain defense as opposed to
a burner despite the fact that the defensive back guarding him is
considered slow. Given the high number of committee running backs
and teams without a clear-cut #1 receiver in the NFL, I feel this
analysis will help owners with roster decisions the rest of this
season.

Passing Game Facts: Grossman
has thrown for exactly one TD in each of his first three playoff
starts. On the down side, he’s had five games of 3 or more
INTs this season. Either Berrian or Muhammad has been the team’s
leading fantasy WR in 16 of the team’s 18 games this season.
Since Week 7, at least one Bears WR has scored 8.5 fantasy points
in a game in all but one contest. Following Clark’s 2 TD,
125-yard performance in Week 15, he has totaled 79 yards and no
scores in the four games since. After allowing 247 yards in the
season opener, the Colts defense has not allowed more than 232
yards passing in any game since. The Colts have not allowed an
opposing WR to top 10 fantasy points since Javon Walker in Week
8.

Running Game Facts: Benson
has seen 10 or more carries in eight of his last nine games, including
a career-high 24 in the NFC Championship. Over the last six games,
Jones has touched the ball 111 times while Benson has touched
it 110 times. Fifteen of the 19 TDs that Bears’ RBs have
scored this season have been scored in six games. The Colts have
allowed 10 individual 100-yard rushers in 2006 and 154 yds/game
rushing to opposing RBs in the regular season. Surprisingly, they
have allowed only 202 rushing yards (67 yds/game) to the RB position
in the playoffs so far (3 games).

Analysis: Before America decides
that Grossman is the worst starting QB to ever take a snap in
a Super Bowl, let him play the game first. Grossman has averaged
213 yards and a TD (while throwing just one INT) in his two playoff
starts this postseason. If he posts similar numbers in this one,
the Bears stand a pretty fair chance at winning this game. The
biggest factors in this game (as in most games) will be each team’s
turnover ratio and field position. I don’t expect this game
to get out of hand at any time, so I expect Grossman to stick
to his playoff theme of “managing the game”. I don’t
expect much more than 220 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in this game.
This means another heavy dose of Jones and Benson and I expect
a similar plan of attack to the Saints game. Benson should get
most of his 15+ carries early on while Jones should get most of
his 20+ touches in the last 2 ½ quarters of the game. Benson
should go for 55 yards while Jones should push 80 total yards
to go along with the Bears’ lone rushing score. Berrian
figures to be the Bears’ main target in the passing game
and is the best bet to catch Grossman’s scoring pass in
this game. Mark him down for 70 yards while Muhammad finds his
way to 55 yards. This (plus the Colts’ Cover 2 defense)
should mean Desmond Clark is in line for a fair game, but don’t
count on that either. Given his lackluster numbers of late, it
would be hard to expect any more than 50 yards from him.

Passing Game Facts: In 9 of
Manning’s 12 playoff starts, he has thrown for 1 or less
TDs. Manning’s 6 INTs in this year’s playoffs are
2/3rds as many picks as he threw during the regular season. He
has, however, thrown for 268+ yards in six of his last eight games.
After an 11-game streak to close out the regular season in which
at least one Colts WR scored more than 10 fantasy points in every
game, the Colts have not had a WR score ten fantasy points in
any of their three playoff games. Harrison has been held under
50 yards in three consecutive games for the first time since Week
10-12 of the 2000 season. Additionally, he has not topped 52 yards
receiving in his last seven playoff games or scored in his last
eight postseason contests. Wayne has been the Colts’ best
fantasy WR in each playoff game this season. Wayne has scored
three postseason TDs since Harrison scored his last one. Colts
TEs have scored six times this season, but none have come in the
last eight games. Clark has piled up 84 or more yards receiving
in four of his six career postseason games. Last week was the
second consecutive game in which Chicago did not allow at least
one WR to score 11.8 fantasy points. (Previously they had allowed
at least one WR to hit that mark in four straight games to close
out the regular season.) It was also the second consecutive game
in which they did not allow an opposing WR to exceed 100 yards.
(They had allowed an opposing WR to hit that mark in each of the
last three regular season games.) The Bears allowed 3 TE scores
this year, two of which have been scored in the last five games.

Running Game Facts: Only three
times since their bye week have the Colts had one rusher carry
the ball at least 20 times-all by Addai. Addai has scored twice
in the playoffs. He ended the regular season being held scoreless
in each of his last five games. Addai has 57 carries in the 2006
postseason; Rhodes has 41. Since their bye week, the Bears have
allowed nine of their twelve opponents’ RBs to score 11+
fantasy points after allowing only one double-digit performance
to an opposing RB prior to Week 7.

Analysis: Depending on who
you talk to, Manning is either going to show the Bears how a good
QB plays the position or he will continue his playoff “struggles”
by throwing nearly as many picks as touchdowns. Both assessments
are ridiculous, to be quite honest. (But that is a conversation
for another time…) Manning will likely continue to throw
as often as he needs to win games (and he seems to do a good job
of that). Pencil Manning in for at least 270 yards and 2 scores.
I fully expect Addai to get 20 touches (and Rhodes 12-14) in this
game. As a result, Addai is a solid bet for a score and 95 total
yards while Rhodes will figure for roughly 50 yards of total offense.
While I would really like to see Harrison get off his playoff
“schnide”, don’t expect the Bears to allow him
to operate against single coverage very often. As a result, Wayne
and Clark will be instrumental parts in how effective the Colts
offense is against the Bears defense. Harrison should top 50 yards
for the first time in four games but don’t look for much
more than that. Wayne should be a solid bet for 75+ yards and
a score while Clark figures to get the most looks. I’ll
mark him down as a good bet for 80 yards and a score.