Talent no longer a sure bet for Senate race

By DAVID CATANESE

01/10/2011 05:05 PM EST

The once likely candidacy of Jim Talent for U.S. Senate in Missouri is no longer a safe bet.

In fact, Republican insiders are now hedging against it.

While close advisers initially signaled Talent would settle on a decision by the end of 2010, it's apparent an announcement has been put off and Republicans in the Show-Me state are increasingly concluding he may not have the stomach for another grueling campaign.

"He's not communicating with party insiders and those who typically help solidify a candidate this far out. In fact, most of them have said they've called him. He's not calling them," said one GOP operative who considers Talent a friend.

The official line is that the former senator is still mulling his options, but this week's overseas trip with likely presidential candidate Mitt Romney has further fueled the theory that Talent might be more comfortable in an advisory role on a national campaign than as the principal in his own.

In fact, when asked about a potential comeback bid, a spokesperson for Talent repeatedly cited "a number of other options for the future, including possible service in a future administration."

But multiple Missouri sources also tell POLITICO that the early surprise entrance of former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman into the contest caught Talent off guard and forced him to rethink a run.

It's not that he doesn't believe he couldn't best Steelman in a primary -- it's whether taking up a bruising intra-party fight before a rough-and-tumble general election with Sen. Claire McCaskill would be worth the time, energy and resources.

"The primary bothers him. He saw how broke and battered [Kenny] Hulshof was in August and he doesn't want to be forced to take positions out of the mainstream," said another Missouri source who has had conversations with those close to Talent.

Steelman mounted a bruising campaign against former Rep. Hulshof in the 2008 gubernatorial primary that divided the party and ultimately lead to a double-digit general win for Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon.

But the GOP operative said if Talent's running, he's not taking the normal steps of any potential candidate -- and political insiders are taking notice.

"Every day that Sarah Steelman is on the phone committing donors, committing grass roots people makes it more difficult for Talent," said the GOP source. "Jim's a pro. If he's really running he should've been down in Jefferson City, showing up at events, because he knows Sarah's calling and trying to lock them down."

Talent has always had more of a reputation as a wonk than a pol. He served as Romney's domestic policy task force chairman in 2008 and remains a distinguished fellow for military affairs at the Heritage Foundation. He has also served as vice chair of a bipartisan commission on Weapons of Mass Destruction.

One Missouri political observer recalled a conversation he last had with Talent in 2008 when the former senator said he found "think tank life stimulating, didn't at all miss the glad-handing and deplored the dumbing down of politics."

"He may figure, Romney is the odds-on favorite to win the primary and then 50-50 in the general, so he almost has as good of a shot to be Secretary of Defense?," said the observer.

When Sen. Kit Bond announced his retirement two years ago, Talent passed on a bid then and said he enjoyed having a schedule that allowed more time for his children.

Last week, adviser Rich Chrismer said Talent had "no general time frame" for revealing a decision.

But for some, the signs are all now pointing against a bid.

"You already have GOP operatives talking, if Talent's not running, what are we going to do? They're clearly worried that they don't have an anti-Steelman candidate and that Talent's not running," said the GOPer who is friendly with Talent.

In an interview with POLITICO in November, Lloyd Smith, executive director of the Missouri Republican Party left no question about his alliances.

Asked for the names of the top potential candidates to challenge McCaskill, Smith listed Talent, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and current RNC chair candidate Ann Wagner. He did not mention Steelman at that time, who was not yet a candidate.

UPDATED 9:54 1/11: Through a spokesman, Smith said that not mentioning Steelman at that time was just an oversight. "Since the November 10 interview, a number of qualified candidates have expressed interest about running--or in Sarah's case, come forward to run. Sarah has a long record of public service and a proven ability to win statewide. Clearly, she is a credible candidate in the race for US Senate," Smith said in a statement.

If Talent does not run, it would be a huge coup for Steelman, who announced early in part to get a head start and potentially freeze the field.

Talent may be frozen, but it's still unlikely that Steelman, who has irked many inside her own party, would escape without some type of primary challenge.

Former congressional candidate Ed Martin has openly pondered a bid and if Wagner falls short in her RNC candidacy, it would not be out of the realm for her to pivot towards a Senate run.