Overnight modeling in general agreement on a major storm system to affect the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast next weekend early following week. Could bring decent rains, wind/erosion on coast, snow into interior Northeast, esp central New York into New England. 00z ECMWF shown pic.twitter.com/vslt7H5RDe

As for the long range storm(s) and modeling...they're going to keep moving around the 2ndary MIDATL->NEAST portion of events. Split flow is a bear for guidance to resolve. Southern low obviously comes along though.
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10/20 PM Blog:https://t.co/kPUrpkPJGM
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Global ensemble packages continue their extended-range support for the idea of a cold, stormy pattern across the east around the 10/25 - 10/30 window. When guidance hones in early and often, the chances of a significant event increases. pic.twitter.com/hIccj7GAPm

Concerning the threat for a stormy regime across the eastern US during the last week of October, we can see the energy fueling that potential threat coming into play across the Pacific NW next weekend before being ejected into the Plains and eastern US around 10/28 - 10/30. pic.twitter.com/6AiWh3JXL7

Still watching this threat. Possible that one of the EPAC tropical systems remnants moves NE across Mexico into Gulf and this serves as part of the complex pattern by late October/early Nov, perhaps hybrid/subtropical storm? Plenty to watch in the coming days.

Many communities over the northern half of Alabama will drop into the 30s early tomorrow and Monday morning. Best chance of frost will come early Monday morning when the wind will be near calm. Average minimum temperature doesn’t drop below 40 in Birmingham until December. pic.twitter.com/K2vj83u0zP

I haven't seen anyone else post a radar cross section of #Michael, so here ya go. This is roughly along a radial outward from KEVX. This is 1733Z,12:33 p.m. CDT. Note the stadium effect in the eye, though it's skewed because the plot is ~40 miles wide but only ~10 miles tall. pic.twitter.com/dQOi5LqUJG

Thursday JMA run for upcoming week argued for upward motion in western hemisphere, Results showing now with EPAC TC's and threat of major late week storm near east coast, Showed the pattern for Michael 3 weeks in advance pic.twitter.com/BDZFdy7hnH

It's about to get chilly! A cold front is pushing through Georgia today and will bring lows tonight from the lower 30s in the NE GA mountains where a Freeze Warning is in effect tonight, to the upper 40s further south. Highs tomorrow will be around 60 for the ATL metro. #gawxpic.twitter.com/YGRJTitKKQ

A “fallstreak hole” is a large elliptical gap that can appear in altocumulus or cirrocumulus clouds when the supercooled water droplets abruptly freeze. These ice crystals then fall and leave a hole behind. This one was captured during a spectacular sunset at Falcon Field! #gawxpic.twitter.com/dYHjbm1Vlx

We have been forecasting a Modoki Enso event since last spring using our research on SOI drops in the previous winter, Combined with a cool eastern Indian Ocean and a very warm NE Pacific, our long standing ideas, first issued in August call for a cold stormy winter.JAMSTEC below pic.twitter.com/ikAJaeas49

when one looks at Global temps since super nino of 97-98, obvious reactions back and forth but level is higher than before that super nino over a 2 decade period, Higher pause starting now, but the big but is with flip of AMO and solar, going OPPOSITE of what went on before pic.twitter.com/DTExiqb6R3

Some hint of a potential storm near the E. Coast next weekend or early the following week in ensembles. They've teased us by pushing this off farther in the future with each model run this week, so we'll see. Potentially more blocking (NAO shift) would support it. pic.twitter.com/eU8XRR1DBc

With the latest NOAA Winter Outlook just released, here's how their previous 3 winter precipitation outlooks have "verified". At least here on the West Coast they have pretty much missed the mark. pic.twitter.com/qKqdB53YGc

Need to watch the period from next weekend through 11/3 or so for potentially multiple storms systems to affect the SE/Eastern US. Possible a tropical wave in the Gulf gets entrained too. Way too complicated to pin down details, but 1 or more noreasters/coastal lows possible.

Hey #NYC, Sunday's forecast high of 47F is more like what you would see in early December. Where is that air coming from? Here's the GFS 5-day back-trajectory for 100m/1500m/3000m for Sunday morning. pic.twitter.com/XSQZvxiD2h

Today, the view at approximately 6,000 feet above sea level shows some early color change. Fall colors have arrived somewhat later than average this year, likely related to the recent warm temperatures and large amounts of rainfall we have received. pic.twitter.com/NKSDT5DeoJ

Well, at least I have a few alternatives for posting information. Starting today I will be making these consolidated "daily" post. They will contain everything that I would normally share in a day, all rolled up into one post. Who knows, it may be easier for you to read instead of wading through multiple post. But this will mean that you will have to come back here to get the updates. I can post a comment on FB when I do an update, but that's about it.

This consolidated post will be ordered with the most recent update at the bottom and I will time stamp each update for you. All I ask is that if you like the post, to please click on the Facebook button at the bottom to "Like" it. Since the Facebook page isn't working, new followers will be harder to come by, so those likes will go a long way in helping me out.

Thursday, 8:33 am

If it doesn't feel like fall for you yet, it will very soon. It's looking like our high temps will be below normal for about a week. With rain coming in on Saturday, we'll see a little bump up, but still below normal. The six images below are the high temperature anomalies through Wednesday, and as you can see, we will finally get a week of BELOW normal temps instead of above.

Friday

Saturday

Saturday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday, 9:05 am

Blocking events are what helps to push the cold air south. And speaking of cold air, the very NW corner on NC and NE corner of TN could see a flake or two of snow. Fun times ahead! :-)

A striking amount of high-latitude Northern Hemisphere blocking is forecast over the next 4 weeks □

Saturdays cold front brings the 1st chance of snow in the mountains for the season. A short-lived northwest flow snow is likely Saturday night into early Sunday. Accumulations not likely or very light but snow showers are likely in the favored areas. #wncwx#snOMGpic.twitter.com/4j0YZeTlE3

Thursday, 11:26 am

The evolution of a potentially significant storm system across the eastern US is now within the ECMWF Op long-range prognostication. Note the negatively tilted, digging trough and the vort max over the central Plains in the 10-12 day range. Maps: @RyanMaue | @weathermodels_pic.twitter.com/xrdYRnLdnP