Allen Gains On Terry In State Voters' Poll

Numbers Reflect Statistical Dead Heat

RICHMOND — Republican gubernatorial candidate George Allen has closed in on Democrat Mary Sue Terry with just days to go before the race's official Labor Day kickoff, a poll released Tuesday shows.

In just two months, Allen has cut Terry's lead in the polls from 18 points to 6. He now trails her 46 percent to 40 percent, according to a Mason-Dixon Research poll done for the Daily Press and other Virginia media.

"The race has yet to begin, but Allen has made it competitive," said Robert Holsworth, a political analyst at Virginia Commonwealth University.

"This is another devastating blow to the Terry campaign," said Allen spokesman Jay Timmons. "The momentum is on George's side."

Terry's 6-point lead is within the poll's margin of error, meaning that statistically the race is a dead heat.

Terry downplayed the numbers, saying she was pleased by her standing as the race begins in earnest.

"We've said from the beginning that the race was going to tighten," she said.

In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Democrat Donald S. Beyer Jr. continues to lead Republican newcomer Michael Farris, though Farris is gaining support while Beyer remains static, the poll shows. The poll shows Beyer with 41 percent to Farris' 28 percent.

In the race for attorney general, most Virginians don't even know who the candidates are. Democrat Bill Dolan now holds a statistically insignificant lead over Republican Jim Gilmore, but Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker said the race's outcome will likely be influenced by whatever happens between the gubernatorial candidates.

Terry began the race for governor dominating everyone who considered challenging her. After running two successful campaigns for statewide office, she was widely known and widely liked by Virginia voters. She has raised loads of money, recently reporting $2 million in the bank, about 10 times more than Allen.

But the new poll shows that Terry support continues to slip while Allen gains momentum.

In May, Terry's support peaked at 56 percent while Allen was barely holding on at 27 percent. Terry has since dropped by 10 percentage points while Allen has gained 13 points.

The Allen camp said the narrowing means more voters have looked over the two candidates and turned to Allen. But Terry said the wide gap between her and Allen was only "an artificial spread" that was bound to close as Allen improved his name recognition over the past two months.

Terry maintains strong leads in urban Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Allen is leading in the rural Shenandoah Valley, the Piedmont region and Northern Neck and remains competitive in Southwest and Southside, the poll shows.

Coker said Terry's drop may be partially due to Virginia voters' disenchantment with Democrats in general, a disenchantment Allen has tried to exploit.

The Democrats have dominated the governor's office for the past 12 years and that can only hurt Terry in an era when voter sentiment is decidedly against incumbents, Holsworth said.

"She's not only carrying the baggage of her own campaign, but the baggage of 12 years of incumbency as well and that's a heavy load right now," Holsworth said.

"It's definitely been a challenging climate here lately," Terry said. "But the issues we're talking about are the issues people care about."

Terry is trying to distance herself from the other Democrats, particularly President Clinton, but Timmons said, "voters can see right through that and realize she's disingenuous and that she's only doing that for expediency."

The Mason-Dixon telephone poll of 809 registered voters was conducted between Thursday and Saturday. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percent. That means there is a 95 percent chance that, if all voters were interviewed, the results would fall within 3.5 percentage points of the poll results.