Monday, March 28, 2016

City of Brotherly Love! Occasionally we have to fly into PHL to visit my husband's family but usually, we end up flying into Baltimore because it ends up cheaper and it's the same 3 hour ride into the middle of nowhere central PA :)

This marathon is in the top 10 largest in the nation and has been going on since 1954! I feel like this one should be on my to-do list but, man, there are just too many good marathons to do and not enough time!

This marathon followed much of the same trends we have been seeing with fewer finishers and thus, fewer qualifiers.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

278

2998

9.27%

282

2680

10.52%

F35-39

97

920

10.54%

104

793

13.11%

F40-44

80

808

9.90%

60

660

9.09%

F45-49

89

555

16.04%

82

502

16.33%

F50-54

49

350

14.00%

48

306

15.69%

F55-59

18

166

10.84%

19

124

15.32%

F60-64

9

52

17.31%

9

50

18.00%

F65-69

0

11

0.00%

2

16

12.50%

F70-74

0

1

0.00%

0

2

0.00%

F75-79

0

1

0.00%

0

2

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

1

1

100.00%

M18-34

270

2752

9.81%

261

2413

10.82%

M35-39

105

1072

9.79%

96

975

9.85%

M40-44

101

1126

8.97%

95

959

9.91%

M45-49

147

936

15.71%

108

791

13.65%

M50-54

103

697

14.78%

83

538

15.43%

M55-59

63

399

15.79%

58

368

15.76%

M60-64

29

181

16.02%

30

148

20.27%

M65-69

9

53

16.98%

14

76

18.42%

M70-74

2

20

10.00%

1

12

8.33%

M75-79

0

7

0.00%

0

8

0.00%

M80+

0

3

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

Totals

1449

13108

11.05%

1353

11425

11.84%

With this race, though, the qualification rate was up so the difference in total qualifiers is less than 100. This corresponds to a decrease of 6.6%.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

98

6.76%

74

5.47%

1-2 minutes

84

5.80%

74

5.47%

2-3 minutes

94

6.49%

89

6.58%

3-4 minutes

59

4.07%

65

4.80%

4-5 minutes

81

5.59%

51

3.77%

5-10 minutes

274

18.91%

254

18.77%

10-20 minutes

353

24.36%

338

24.98%

20> minutes

406

28.02%

408

30.16%

Totals

1449

1353

No surprise here, The Squeaker Pack shrank from 28.71% to 26.09%.

Overall Numbers

Given where we are at in the analysis, it's going to take a whole lot more than the above numbers to move the needle either way.

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

2522

32218

7.83%

2327

30771

7.56%

F35-39

1079

12303

8.77%

1071

12146

8.82%

F40-44

1075

11582

9.28%

1003

11134

9.01%

F45-49

1072

7977

13.44%

1022

8218

12.44%

F50-54

636

5224

12.17%

689

5471

12.59%

F55-59

349

2625

13.30%

333

2564

12.99%

F60-64

154

1067

14.43%

160

1108

14.44%

F65-69

44

335

13.13%

50

365

13.70%

F70-74

9

97

9.28%

9

108

8.33%

F75-79

1

24

4.17%

1

20

5.00%

F80+

1

3

33.33%

2

7

28.57%

M18-34

2225

29079

7.65%

2051

27125

7.56%

M35-39

1069

15112

7.07%

1080

14373

7.51%

M40-44

1235

16226

7.61%

1182

15098

7.83%

M45-49

1458

12915

11.29%

1359

12754

10.66%

M50-54

1167

10079

11.58%

1045

9919

10.54%

M55-59

698

5817

12.00%

707

6006

11.77%

M60-64

435

2995

14.52%

461

3006

15.34%

M65-69

192

1213

15.83%

182

1266

14.38%

M70-74

56

427

13.11%

50

423

11.82%

M75-79

8

109

7.34%

11

125

8.80%

M80+

0

22

0.00%

2

29

6.90%

Totals

15485

167449

9.25%

14797

162036

9.13%

We are looking at a 4.4% decrease in qualifiers, year over year.

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

982

6.34%

846

5.72%

1-2 minutes

931

6.01%

856

5.78%

2-3 minutes

884

5.71%

786

5.31%

3-4 minutes

768

4.96%

735

4.97%

4-5 minutes

739

4.77%

603

4.08%

5-10 minutes

3181

20.54%

3060

20.68%

10-20 minutes

4099

26.47%

4054

27.40%

20> minutes

3901

25.19%

3857

26.07%

Totals

15485

14797

The Squeaker Pack shrank from 27.79% to 25.86%. So, as I state pretty much at every update, more folks qualifying with more than 5 minutes of margin.

What does this mean for the cutoff? Sorry to say that the update is a bit of a snoozer.

The number of runners in the previous qualification year achieving 147 seconds of margin was 13,137. Taking this year's data up to this point, the 13,137th runner has a margin of