The iPhone has not been the hot phone here for a while and has lost ground to a flood of good, cheaper Android-powered handsets. One of the hottest of those Chinese Android firms is Xiaomi, a three year old startup with a $10 Billion valuation (more than Blackberry and Nokia are worth), new phones and an Internet TV announced Thursday and Hugo Barra, a former senior Android executive at Google, as its new head of international.

Apple also does not have a relationship with China Mobile, the country's largest mobile operator. Apple CEO has met several times with his counterpart at China Mobile, most recently in late July, but so far there has been no deal announced.

Next week Apple is expected to introduce two new phones. Apple will hold a launch event in Beijing several hours after the end of the one in the United States, in what looks to be the first time the company has simultaneously introduced a new phone in both the United States and China.

A online leak Friday from China Telecom, the third largest mobile operator in China, appears to confirm that high-end iPhone 5S and low-end iPhone 5C models will be available here soon. China Unicom, the second largest mobile operator in this market, will also offer the new models.

China Mobile is the carrier that really matters though. If Apple does not strike a deal with China Mobile it is unlikely the company can gain back significant smartphone share in this hugely important market. Apple may have once had some leverage with China Mobile, but no longer.

A China Mobile deal is so important that it is hard to imagine CEO Tim Cook not coming to Beijing for the announcement. If Mr. Cook is at next week's event in California, he will not have enough time to fly to Beijing for the satellite event, and it would then be very surprising that a China Mobile deal is imminent.