August – September War on Syria has begun. 30.000 Flee Kurdish Region

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Christof Lehmann (nsnbc) ,- Over 30.000 refugees from Syria´s northern, predominantly Kurdish region have fled to the Kurdish Administrated Region of Iraq over the last days, informs the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Since the beginning of August, the region has been under sustained attacks from Western- and Gulf Arab-backed al-Qaeda brigades, including Jabhat al-Nusrah and The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham.

Foreign-backed insurgents in Southern Syria have received major arms deliveries from Saudi Arabia via Jordan, including advanced Konkurs anti-tank missiles, while the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin E. Dempsey visited the Hashemite Kingdon.

The renewed campaign in Northern Syria and the expected major campaign in the South have been systematically prepared while the United States and allies have stalled Russian and Syrian initiatives to hold the international conference on Syria in Geneva.

More than 30.000 have fled, said UNHCR Spokesman. A spokesperson for the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Peter Kessler, has stated that the estimated number of of refugees which have fled the northern region of Syria is larger than 30.000 and that an estimated 5.000 were fleeing the region per day.

The numbers have not been independently corroborated and are, according to some eyewitnesses nsnbc international has spoken to, not unlikely to be exaggerated.

The UNHCR spokesperson said, that the United Nations has dispatched 2.100 tents, two prefabricated warehouses as well as water containers to the Kurdish Administrated Region (KAR) of Iraq.

The exodus is, according to Kessler, the biggest since November 2012, when approximately 9.000 Syrians were displaced and crossed into neighboring Turkey. The unconventional war which has been waged against Syria since 2011 has according to the United Nations cost more than 100.000 lives while an estimated 1.9 million have been displaced. The vast majority of both those who have been killed and those who have been displaced since 2011 are elderly as well as women and children.

nsnbcinternational reported, that reliable intelligence strongly indicated that the Syrian political and military opposition was preparing a major military campaign to take place in August and September. The major military campaign would be conducted, among others, with the purpose to create a situation on the ground, that would appear to justify calls humanitarian corridors, a no-fly zone and eventually a military intervention.

The election of the Saudi-backed, new head of the opposition, Ahmed Assi Jaber would lend the foreign-backed insurgency the appearance of a coherent political and military front.

The August / September campaign was initiated on 5 August, when militants from al-Qaeda´s Jabhat al-Nusrah mounted a military campaign in the Tal Abyad district of the Raqqa Govenorate in the predominantly Kurdish region of northern Syria.

In one of the attacks, the Jabhat al-Nusrah insurgents murdered an estimated 330 women, elderly men as well as scores of children while kidnapping hundreds.

The mass kidnapping and related terrorist attacks elicited international condemnation while the governments of the USA as well as the Western and Arab governments of the UK, France, Israel, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Jordan failed to condemn the war crime.

Yesterday, al-Qaeda brigades began shelling areas in the predominantly Kurdish town of Ras al-Ayn with mortars as well as with artillery. The barrage was reportedly initiated prior to an infantry assault which led to clashes between al-Qaeda brigades and Kurdish self-defense forces.

“The decision will allow for crude exports from rebel-held territory, the import of oil and gas production technology, and investments in the Syrian oil industry.”

The EU´s 27 Foreign Ministers had agreed that any export or investment initiatives will be taken in close coordination with the leaders of the Syrian opposition. Ahead of the meeting, the German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle stated to international media:

“We wish for good economic development in the areas controlled by the opposition, therefore we lift the sanctions which hinder the moderate opposition forces work.”

The British Foreign Secretary, William Hague described the decision to lift the ban as a means of helping in all ways possible, saying:

“The security situation is so difficult, that much of this will be difficult to do, but it is important for us to send the signal that we are open to helping in other ways, in all ways possible.”

SAA cleans out Deir Ez-Zor

An Exodus of Syria´s Kurdish Noncombatants could yield Strategic Advantage for Syrian Armed Forces. Although the recent exodus of predominantly elderly, women and children from northern Syria, to the Kurdish Administrated Region of Iraq is tragic from a humanitarian perspective, it eases operations for the Syrian Arab Army.

With the civilian, noncombatant population evacuated to safety, joint operations including air force, infantry and special operations forces as well as armored brigades and artillery can be conducted more safely, without risking casualties of civilians.

According to the DoD, the USA has deployed some 200 plus troops in Jordan under the U.S. Central Command Forward, Jordan, which is a deployed element that coordinates between U.S. and Jordanian forces.

Moreover, the USA has deployed staff of U.S. organizations, including the U.S. Agency for International Development, the U.S. State Department, as well as roughly 1.000 members of the U.S. Army, Marines, Navy and Air Force in Jordan.

Onset of August / September Campaign in Southern Syria to be expected soon. The onset of the long-planned August / September military campaign in the southern part of Syria is by many analysts expected to take place soon. Earlier this year, nsnbc International published a report, based on a Palestinian intelligence source, who reported that approximately 300 U.S. Special Forces are training insurgents in the region around the Jordanian Border town al-Mafraq.

The U.S. Special Forces are reportedly training the insurgents in operations such as “the safe handling of captured chemical weapons”.

Other specialties of training strongly indicate that the USA is preparing direct military action against high profile military and political targets in Syria. Reportedly, the US troops are training insurgents in cooperation with the US Air Force during air raids, such as pinpointing targets with lasers.

Analysts assess US assurances to “hold international conference in Syria as soon as possible” as a deliberate stalling strategy while preparing major military and political campaign. A growing number of independent international analysts begin to assess US assurances towards Russia, that the US is doing everything it can to hold the long overdue international conference on Syria “as soon as possible” as deliberate stalling strategy, while the anti-Syrian alliance systematically prepared the renewed military campaign against Syria in the North and the South of the country.

Russia´s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly stressed that the Russian and the Syrian governments are ready to take part in the international conference without preconditions, but that he does not see the same willingness among the opposition.

The Russian position with regard to the stalling strategy is that the United States´statements, that it does not deliver weapons to the terrorists, does not exempt the United States from the full responsibility for the conduct and crimes which are being committed by the terrorist in Syria.

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About the Author

Christof Lehmann - Dr. Christof Lehmann is the founder and editor of nsnbc. He is a psychologist and former independent political consultant on conflict, conflict resolution and a wide range of other political issues.
In March 2013 he established nsnbc as a daily, independent, international on-line newspaper. He can be contacted at nsnbc international at nsnbc.wordpress@gmail.com