September 27, 2013

Cruz leads national Republican field

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest
national poll finds Ted Cruz is now the top choice of Republican primary voters
to be their candidate for President in 2016. He leads the way with 20% to 17%
for Rand Paul, 14% for Chris Christie, 11% for Jeb Bush, 10% each for Marco
Rubio and Paul Ryan, 4% for Bobby Jindal, and 3% each for Rick Santorum and
Scott Walker.

Cruz has gained 8 points since our last national 2016 poll in July while everyone
else has more or less stayed in place. He's made himself the face of a
government shutdown over Obamacare, and the Republican base supports that by a
64/20 margin. It's not surprising that Republicans identifying as 'very
conservative' support a shutdown 75/10, but even the moderate wing of the party
supports it by a 46/36 margin.

Cruz is leading the GOP field based especially on his appeal to 'very
conservative' primary voters, who he gets 34% with t0 17% for Rand Paul and 12%
for Paul Ryan. Voters who fall into that ideological group make up the largest
portion of the Republican electorate at 39%. With moderates Cruz gets only 4%
with Christie leading at 34% to 12% for Jeb Bush and 10% for Marco Rubio, but
they only account for 18% of GOP voters and thus aren't all that relevant to
Cruz's prospects for winning a Republican nomination.

Our numbers also suggest that Cruz is now viewed more broadly as the leader
of the Republican Party. When asked whether they trust Cruz or GOP leader Mitch
McConnell more, Cruz wins out 49/13. When it comes to who's more trusted
between Cruz and Speaker John Boehner, Cruz has a 51/20 advantage. And when it
comes to Cruz and 2008 GOP nominee and Senate colleague John McCain, Cruz wins
out 52/31. He now has more credibility with the GOP base than the folks who
have been leading the party for years.

“Ted Cruz this week established himself as the grassroots hero of the
Republican Party,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The
party base has a lot more faith in him than their more official leaders like
Mitch McConnell and John Boehner.”

PPP surveyed 743
Republican primary voters on September 25th and 26th. The margin of error
is +/-3.6%. This poll was not authorized or paid for by any campaign or
political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone
interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q6 Do you think Twitter allows President Obama togo over the 140 character limit for a tweet, ornot?Yes.................................................................. 13%No ................................................................... 36%Not sure .......................................................... 52%

Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 51%Man................................................................. 49%

Q9 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 30%46 to 65........................................................... 46%Older than 65.................................................. 24%

One quick note, Cruz was born a US citizen which qualifies him as a natural born citizen. Since the context of that phrase was considered confusing the first congress clarified it in the The Naturalization Act of 1790.

The Naturalization Act of 1790 stated that "the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born citizens". (Act to establish a uniform Rule of Naturalization, 1st Congress, 2nd session, March 26, 1790)

For further background into the matter, from Hamilton in the Federalist Papers #68:

[quote]
Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption. These most deadly adversaries of republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one querter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our councils. How could they better gratify this, than by raising a creature of their own to the chief magistracy of the Union? But the convention have guarded against all danger of this sort, with the most provident and judicious attention.[/quote]

Their concern was to block a foreigner from being elected president. Note in contrast that England's law specifically permitted a foreign-born head of state.

Now the question is what method are they using to ensure a foreigner doesn't become president. Digging into the history of the writing of the Constitution:

"No person shall be eligible to the office of President of the United States unless he be now a Citizen of one of the States, or hereafter be born a Citizen of the United States."

On July 25, 1787, John Jay wrote to George Washington, presiding officer of the Convention:

"Permit me to hint, whether it would not be wise and seasonable to provide a strong check to the admission of Foreigners into the administration of our national Government, and to declare expressly that the Command in chief of the American army shall not be given to, nor devolve on, any but a natural born Citizen."

While the Committee on Detail originally proposed that the President must be merely a citizen as well as a resident for 21 years, the Committee of Eleven changed "citizen" to "natural born citizen" without recorded explanation after receiving Jay's letter. The Convention accepted the change without further recorded debate.[/quote]

Let me clarify that. Hamilton wanted a qualification for the presidency to be someone who was a citizen since birth and put that in his draft. The Committee on Detail took that out and instead put in the qualification as being a citizen and resident of the US for 21 years. Jay thought that wasn't good enough and wanted it put back like Hamilton had it. He then nagged George Washington to have them change it back. Washington forwarded Jay's letter to the Committee on Detail and they adopted Jay's language (natural born citizen) to accomplish what Jay and Hamilton wanted (US citizen since birth, never been a foreign citizen).

Bowman, given that even the most right wing extremists didn't question Obama's mother's citizenship, how can they on the one hand say Obama isn't eligible based on their fantasy of him being born out of the U.S., but somehow it isn't an issue for Ted Cruz?

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