Is the reference number of "over 50,000 AR-15 receivers" a generalization or is there a source for this number?

I met a person toward end of March '06 who had various business with DOJ Firearms Division.

His contact there at DOJ said in mid-March they were quite busy w/AR stuff and that analysis seem to show somewhere around 30K off-list receivers were sold by then.

Most of these were probably ARs, but there were probably a few percent off-list AK receivers (which really hadn't gotten traction yet for several reasons) as well as some FAL and HK clone receivers.

I believe the DOJ could figure this estimates by accounting for DROS number increases over prior month's sales, and prior month of prior year. Rifle sales in general are fairly slow and predictable and this would be readily discernable.

End of Dec '05 and first month or two of 2006 also had DOJ conducting raid-like 'audits' of FFLs selling off-list receivers. So between these characterizations I'd bet that 30K number is reasonably close - plus or minus 10% (resulting in 27K-33K by end of March).

I was personally estimating 12K by then, but I didn't realize that there were HUGE sales in SoCal area and group buys we didn't hear of on Calguns, etc.

There was a HUGE surge of buying after the Feb 4 "Category 4" memo where DOJ had promised they were gonna list.

So if we have around 30K in March '05, with continued interest fanned by various subsequent DOJ memos, and continuing interest exhibited here on Calguns and AR15.COM, along with shops carrying OLLs as standard-stocked items (San Jose's Alamden Gun Exchange appears to be the first!), it would be absolutely reasonable to predict somewhere around 50K-ish at end of 2006.

Again that 50K number of off-list receivers is gonna have a smidgen of AK, FAL, HK clone receiver sales mixed in..

__________________

Bill Wiese
San Jose, CA

CGF Board Member / NRA Benefactor Life Member / CRPA life memberNo postings of mine here, unless otherwise specifically noted, areto be construed as formal or informal positions of the Calguns.Netownership, The Calguns Foundation, Inc. ("CGF"), the NRA, or my employer. No posts of mine on Calguns are to be construed as legal advice, which can only be given by a lawyer.

Again that 50K number of off-list receivers is gonna have a smidgen of AK, FAL, HK clone receiver sales mixed in..

I can evey say I've talked to a number of people who've had 10 or more off list rifles or receivers of their own, and these are people I know or have talked to in person.

So I figure at least 10-15k Off List receivers/rifles are owned by several hundred people. If you believe the results of this internet message forum poll from May of last year is somewhat accurate, it's not hard to believe...

so would a 50 beowulf be legal in ca as long as it needs a tool to remove the mag? it is a 50 cal pistol round so it should not pose as a problem in the 50bmg ban. also would i be able to run a 10 rd beowulf mag even though it looks like a 30 rounder?

so would a 50 beowulf be legal in ca as long as it needs a tool to remove the mag? it is a 50 cal pistol round so it should not pose as a problem in the 50bmg ban. also would i be able to run a 10 rd beowulf mag even though it looks like a 30 rounder?

Welcome to Calguns. 50 Beowulf is not prohibited in Ca, so that would be fine.

If what you're saying about the mag is that it holds 30 .223 rounds, but only

10 of the 50 Beo rounds, I think you're probably ok. Provided that you

have the 50 Beowulf upper on. If you disconnect the upper however, you

Just a little... if you think that's bad, my total number of gun purchases last year was 45, although 5 of those don't count too much because they were a group buy of Mosin M44's with other C&R guys, subsequently transferred off to the other licensees.

I actually did buy one more off-list receiver than is on those totals - gave my mom an M4gery for home defense.

Man I tried to abide by the laws recomendations of buying at least one gun a month but I couldn't afford it.

Share the secret brother.

Please don't tell me you married a rich woman that believes that her husband should have alot of toys.

Buy lots of cheap guns... i.e. receivers. Buy enough that, when the ban comes, you'll have enough to keep you puttering away into your 60's. That's what I was shooting for, although I probably should have more AK receivers in order to achieve that goal.

Also, be really frugal with your credit card for many years, until the OLL thing hits. Then, spend the next few years paying it off.