Rates on the Way Up

Well, it feels like the boring but nice - super low rates of the summer might be coming to an end. We went most of 2014 with rates in the 4.125% to 4.25% range. This week saw an increase in the 10-Year Treasury Note from 2.45 to today where it hit 2.60. There was no significant data today to warrant this big move. It just feels like it is an accumulation of lots of little things suggesting the economy is getting better. If you have ever watched something important/expensive/cherished fall off the counter, knowing it would break, but also knowing there was nothing you could do to mitigate the imminent disappointment - that's what this week has been like for rates and the bond markets.

With that said... We are seeing the Best Available Rate for conventional 30 year fixed moving to 4.365% to 4.5% and FHA at 3.875%. In the big scheme of things - still very low.

On the horizon for next week, the only substantial report is Consumer Price Index which is monthly data on changes in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. If this is at or better than expectation that could mean another move up for rates.

However the biggest thing to watch for is the Fed meeting on Friday and there are only two words in their policy statement after the meeting that matter to us - "considerable time". Since March, the Ed has promised that it intends to hold rates steady for a "considerable time". If these words stay in - that's good for rates. If they come out - watch for rates to move higher.