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Published Friday, October 21, 2005

Jordan Times, Amman, on Mahmoud Abbas:

What can Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas reasonably expect to get out of his forthcoming visit to Washington? He is likely to be endorsed by U.S. President George W. Bush, who will hail him as a man of peace and moderation. He may be lauded for having negotiated and largely delivered on a shaky ceasefire throughout an eight-month period that included the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Pledges for financial aid in rebuilding infrastructure in the Gaza Strip could be announced. Certainly, a restatement of the U.S. position that two viable states living side-by-side is the only way to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be made.

But Abbas is also likely to come under pressure from the U.S. administration to take a harder line with armed Palestinian factions, especially Hamas, to pressure them into giving up their weapons. Possibly, the White House will voice its discomfort with Hamas running for parliamentary elections, though Washington has taken a reasonably sophisticated attitude on the issue so far. A firm statement that violence against Israel must stop is also certain to follow. ...

A major victory for Abbas would also be a signal that the U.S. will not stand in the way of Hamas running in parliamentary elections and that Washington will ensure that Israel toes the line. Finally, Washington also needs to tell Abbas that it is ready and willing to engage seriously and with intent in the conflict.

If Washington wants to strengthen Abbas, as it is reportedly looking to do, the U.S. needs to be to get away from rhetoric and take some substantial steps. Neither Abbas nor the Palestinian people are likely to be happy with anything else.