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Title

Climate

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Description

This file contains data on the timing of snowmelt from 1935-2012, average April-May temperatures from 1973-2011, and minimum April-May temperatures from 1973-2011. The timing of snowmelt was observed from 1975-2012, and estimated from 1935-1974 based on correlations with river runoff. Temperature data come from the NOAA station in Crested Butte, Colorado. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

This file contains data on flowering time (first flowering and peak flowering) from 1973-2011 averaged across all plots, as well as snowmelt data and average April-May temperature data for these years. Timing of flowering was collected by David Inouye and collaborators. Snowmelt data was collected by billy Barr. Temperature data come from the Crested Butte (CO) NOAA station. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

These are data on flowering time (first flowering time and peak flowering time) for all plots from 1973-2011. Data were collected by David Inouye and collaborators. Temperature data are from the Crested Butte, CO NOAA station, and snowmelt data were collected by billy barr. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

This file contains the individual level data for selection analyses and estimates of response to selection in the recombinant inbred lines (RILs) planted in the Montana and Colorado parental environments. Included are data on planting site, family identification, timing of first flowering, plant size at flowering, absolute and relative fitness, and covariates. These data were collected by Jill Anderson and Tom Mitchell-Olds in the field. Text Wrangler was used to create the data file.

This file contains family-level average trait values for the recombinant inbred lines (RILs) in the Colorado garden. Columns include: family, leaf number at flowering (standardized to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1), height at flowering (standardized to a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1), relative fitness (=absolute fitness/maximum fitness of individuals), and flowering time (both standardized to a mean of 0 and SD of 1, and unstandardized). Standardizations were made on the individual level data prior to calculating the average values. Jill Anderson collected these data at the Colorado field garden. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

This file contains phenotypic and fitness data on naturally-recruiting Boechera stricta plants in 5 transects. Jill Anderson collected these data at the Carpenter Meadow site in 2010. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

This file contains phenotypic and fitness data on naturally-recruiting Boechera stricta plants in 5 transects. Jill Anderson collected these data at the Carpenter Meadow site in 2011. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

This file contains data from the experiment at Carpenter Meadow to assess natural selection on flowering in local genotypes. Jill Anderson collected data in the field in 2010. Analyses included size at planting (number of leaves) and cohort as fixed effects, and row nested within block as random effects. The data file was created in Text Wrangler.

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38-year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973-2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favored earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010-2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20% of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.