I want to start off with the statement that the analysis below is really not specific to AR21. It applies to all Amazing Races.

A multi-part hypothesis that interests me:1. That since LAX has been the departure to overseas airport for 89% of AR12 to AR20, LAX will be the departure airport for AR21.2. That the destination will be either in eastern Australasia or in Europe.3. That nonstop flights to the destination are how it will be done because connecting flights risks sightings at the connecting airport (note - World Race Productions has violated this many times, but I think that they design a first leg with one non-stop flight whenever possible).4. That at least 2 flights from LAX to the destination within a 3 hour period are needed to get acceptable Amazing Race first flights (this is traditionally how World Race Productions designs Amazing Races).5. That the first flight should be between 2pm and midnight (again, this is how World Race Productions designs Amazing Races).6. The fact that some international flights are not daily should be ignored to cut down on complexity of the analysis.7. The first flight will not be to the Caribbean, Central America, South America or Africa (this one is not difficult because there are no LAX to Africa nonstops that I am aware of). Since we know of several Amazing Races starting to Latin America, I know that this is frequently not a valid assumption, but you have to cut the complexity of the analysis somehow.

I went to Thursday's LAX list of departures to find out the following:

TO EUROPE NOT FITTING MY HYPOTHESISAMS 2pmFRA 3pmDXB 6pm (note - Dubai is not in Europe but since it is a major hub for connecting flights it is a logical place to go)IST 6pmDME 6pm (surprise; it is to Moscow's second airport)ZRH 8pmMUC 9pm

TO ASIA FITTING MY HYPOTHESISPVG flights at 2pm and 3pmTPE flights at 3pm and 5pmPVG two flights at 7pmSYD - 2 flights at 10pm and 1 at 12amMEL - 3 flights at 11pm and 1 at 12am

So, what does this mean? If the flight is headed to Europe, then London or Paris are the most logical destinations. London is my favorite as Amazing Races have only visited England in AR3 and AR17.

If the flight is headed to eastern Asia there are more possibilities. I would love to think that the undervisited destination of the Philippines would be the destination of choice, but the assumptions of my analysis make that unlikely. The logical destinations that fit the hypothesis are Shanghai, Taipei, Sydney or Melbourne. Melbourne has been least visited by a U.S. Amazing Race (so far, never).

Now, I believe that this approach is valid to statistically predict over a wide range of Amazing Races where the first destination point is. However, it would get really boring with all Amazing Races having first departures only to London, Paris, Shanghai, Taipei, Sydney or Melbourne. The criterion of nonstop flights is frequently ignored by World Race Productions as they do use some connecting flights, which opens up hundreds of cities in the target areas as potential first destinations. So you have to take this analysis for what it is, built on a chain of assumptions. If you change that assumption in particular of any other assumptions you get a situation typically too complex for reasonable conclusions.

Yes you are right. That makes 3 visits to the entire United Kingdom in 20 Amazing Races. France has had 6 total visits, but only 5 of them were mainly focused in the greater Paris area. AR6 was to Corsica and the greater Nice area.

The possibility of going to Toulouse is real, but it is just one of hundreds of cities in Europe that can be reached by connecting flights. My analysis assumed that it would be a city with 2 nonstop flights from LAX in a time frame. There are a myriad of different assumptions that can be used, but most of them will result in a very wide range of possible first destination cities, each will a small probability of being chosen for the honor.

So what you seek (Toulouse as first destination) is possible but unlikely. The same goes for each of those hundreds of cities I refer to. My rough guess is that there is at best a 50% probability that one of the 6 prime first destinations I highlight is selected by World Race Productions.

Interesting analysis! I wonder to which extent they may also factor in the 'reputation' certain airports have.Meaning, based on experiences, some airports are more notorious than others wrt flight delays, losing luggage and generally being more disorganized.

I've flown over Istanbul a few times and it's not fun tbh, there have always been issues and the airport is pretty chaotic too.

As much as CDG is a big hub I don't always find the layout so logical (I once nearly missed a connecting flight because the check in desk was at the back hidden by others and though I speak French nobody could tell me where to go).Also they have a lot of 'correspondances courtes' at least the times I have been taking connecting flights there. :shrug

So perhaps I am biased by my own experiences, quite possibly. And surely they can assist the teams somewhat to make it from gate to gate but I wonder to which extent the production would factor this in?? Personally I would much prefer to fly over LHR or Munich eg than Istanbul or Moscow for example, when it comes to connecting flights, because I think it's a lot better organized and chances of a delay are smaller. (Hope I didn't offend anyone by saying this btw, merely speaking of my own personal experiences, not saying they are generally 'true'. )

Logged

Love takes off masks that we fear we cannot live without and know we cannot live within.

Just as a fact: about the Caribbean and Central America, TAR never had a first leg on that area (only TARLA 2 had the starting line at Guatemala's Tikal National Park). The closest one was Mexico in TAR3.

(BTW, you keep surprising me with your analysis, and I think you're right about it)

Alaneveda,

I was shocked to learn in an unpublished separate analysis of Central America destinations only that Mexico only qualified under my sets of assumptions with Monterey with 3 flights to there from LAX at 5pm and one each at 9pm and 10pm. Mexico City had only one nonstop flight and thus did not qualify. The other destinations that do not qualify based on my criteria are Guadalajara, Guajanato and Leon.

I am not clear what you were saying about AR3, but the first destination there was definitely Mexico City although it originated in Miami and not LAX.

Geographically speaking (Should be the differences on educationals programs. For us, Canada, USA and Mexico always were part of North America: everything between Mexico and Colombia's border with Panama were Central America; and from Colombia to the Strait of Magellan were South America).

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

It is interesting to note that CI7 and BR15 were the flights taken by teams in AR19 from LAX with the nonstop destination of Taipei.

It is also interesting that my study above predicted Shanghai, Taipei, Melbourne or Sydney would be the first destination of AR21. Two of those four were involved in the flights, although my assumption of nonstops was not utilized by World Race Productions.

My guess is that there must be an earlier arriving flight that production used to get Phil and Bertram ahead of the teams into Shanghai. The departure times of these flights out of LAX into Taipei strongly suggest that. And this:

Quote

It is interesting to note that CI7 and BR15 were the flights taken by teams in AR19 from LAX with the nonstop destination of Taipei.

would, I think, make my reasoning even more likely, as the schedulers for the race would know how that worked to get production ahead in TAR 19 and make any necessary adjustments.

"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

I hate it when RFF eats my homework, but this happens more than I like.

There are only a limited number of flights teams could take out of Shanghai's Pudong airport between 3am and 6am China time:BR6371 TPE 0315CI5818 TPE 0330OZ998 ICN 0420UX51 HKG 0440HX9232 HKG 0500KE236 ICN 0505

If you then consider where you can connect to from TPE, ICN or HKG, there are many "been there, done that" destinations and a few genuinely novel ones. I highlight those novel ones here that depart from the connecting point between 6am and 9am Monday May 29 (which it is already over there in east Asia):