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AN ECONOMIC APPROACH TO THE DEMAND FOR URBAN PASSENGER TRAVEL

This paper which presents two models based on the economic theory of consumer demand, discusses the analysis and forecasting of urban passenger travel and its modal split. The first model uses the cross-sectional origin-and-destination data of the Melbourne Transportation Study to estimate demand equations for central business district work travel by private and public transport. The second model is on a city-wide level and formulates for each Australian State capital city, a simultaneous system of four structural equations designed to explain car ownership and public transport use and modal split. The estimates of both models are shown to be statistically valid. The inter-relationship between the various modes is emphasized, and the models enabled the estimation of various price and cross-price elasticities of demand for travel by each mode. The models can then be used to assess the effects of the different transportation policy implications.