pandemic

While I’ve been blogging about the Ebola outbreak in West Africa (121 dead last last I heard), I’ve noticed a different virus that I’ve talked about before is making a comeback further east. Deema Almashabi and Oliver Staley reported earlier today on Bloomberg.com:

The government of Saudi Arabia is trying to reassure its citizens that the most recent outbreak of a respiratory virus isn’t a cause for alarm following 16 new cases, including two deaths, reported in the last nine days.

The Saudi health ministry sent text messages through local carriers yesterday asking the country’s 30 million residents to check its website, call a free hotline and check its official Twitter account for updates on the coronavirus, which causes Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome or MERS…

Almost 230 people are known to have been infected since the virus emerged in Saudi Arabia two years ago, and 92 of them have died, according to the World Health Organization. Much about the disease and how it’s transmitted is still unknown…

(Editor’s note: Bold added for emphasis)

The first time I discussed the coronavirus on Survival And Prosperity, the attention hadn’t yet focused on the Middle East. Rather, it was on Europe. I blogged on February 18, 2013:

Novel coronavirus (NCoV). A SARS-like virus I’ve been hearing more of recently. And of particular concern to the World Health Organization (WHO). From a February 16 posting on the “Disease Outbreak News” section of their website:

The United Kingdom (UK) has informed WHO of another confirmed case of infection with the novel coronavirus (NCoV). This is the third case confirmed in the country this month and is in the same family cluster as the two recently confirmed cases.

The latest confirmed case does not have recent travel history outside the UK. The case is recovering from mild respiratory illness and is currently well.

The confirmation with NCoV in this case with no recent travel history indicates that infection was acquired in the UK. Although this new case offers further indications of person-to-person transmission, no sustained person-to-person transmission has been identified…

As of 16 February 2013, WHO has been informed of a total of 12 confirmed cases of human infection with NCoV, including five deaths…

WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.

WHO continues to closely monitor the situation.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

12 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus. 5 deaths.

The vibe I’m getting from public health circles is that human-to-human transmission of NCoV is pretty difficult, so there’s not much worry of a pandemic at this point in time.

Still, like the WHO suggested in their bulletin, it’s something worth keeping an eye on. People infected with the novel coronavirus have developed acute respiratory illness with symptoms of shortness of breath, cough, and pneumonia. There are no specific treatments for the illnesses caused by the virus.

By last summer, the coronavirus that now had a foothold in the Middle East was being called MERS, or MERS-CoV on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website.

Coronavirus/Novel coronavirus/MERS/MERS-CoV- something to keep an eye out for in addition to Ebola.

Speaking of survival instruction tonight, what do you have planned next week? You see, I got an e-mail last week from someone involved with The Survival Summit, billed as a “FREE, five-day, online training summit where 25 of the world’s most sought-after experts on Survival and Self Reliance will be teaching online classes.” The online event is scheduled to take place starting next Monday, January 20, and continues until January 26. From the Summit’s website:

Join Us For The SURVIVAL Summit?

January 20-26th, 2014

This January, the founders of The Prepper Project will be hosting an exclusive online event that we’re calling ‘The Survival Summit’:

It’s going to be a FREE, five-day, online training summit where 25 of the world’s most sought-after experts on Survival and Self Reliance will be teaching online classes, giving you 5 solid days and over 24 hours of training and strategies with the single focus of keeping your family alive, safe, and fed during a triggered societal collapse.

Topics we’ll be covering during this 5-day event will include:

• How to develop a STRONG ‘Protection Triad’ with detailed Property Security & Threat Planning… Water, Energy, & Fuel Systems… and Self-Reliant Food Production & Storage.
• How to grow your own food supply, without fertilizers, pesticides, or even irrigation. Even if you live in an arid climate.
• How to spot the ideal homestead or survival retreat locations.
• Building concepts for hiding your home in the wilderness.
• Blueprints for setting up your property with its own off-grid water and energy supply.
• Trapping secrets for protecting crops like corn from being stolen by Raccoons, or potatoes from being ravaged by voles.
• How to feed & clothe your family by trapping like the settlers.
• How to protect your loved ones in a world where the police are no longer coming to your rescue.
• Different strategies for defending a suburban versus rural home or property from looters or armed gangs.
• How to fortify your home from being breached. And the skills you need to know to escape from an unlawful restraint or kidnapping.
• Off-grid medical techniques, herbal remedies for fighting potential flu pandemics, how to legally create your own renewable fuels, and much, much more.

And that’s really just the beginning!

Sign up to attend The Survival Summit that kicks off on Monday, January 20th by entering your email address in the form below now, and we’ll send you more details about our speaker lineup in the weeks ahead.

Again, this event is completely FREE to attend!

And you can watch all 25 of the presenters completely online from your home computer, provided you have a secure high speed Internet connection.

So there’s no traveling to a central location; your privacy and identity remain protected.

But again, we want to emphasize, only those who register in advance by entering their names and emails addresses will be told how and where to attend this event.

We won’t be publicly broadcasting these details across the Internet.

So if you know of someone who could benefit from joining this conversation with us, please direct them to this page to register as well.

I took a quick look at the list of preparedness-related experts booked for the Summit. I’m familiar with the work of a number of them, and I’m impressed they’ll be a part of this project. So much so I might have to schedule my blogging and other activities around viewing the Summit presentations next week.

Now, if you’re like me, when someone uses the word “free” in a pitch, a red flag is raised. How can all this online instruction be free? From the website’s FAQ page:

Each day, a couple of presentations will be posted on the summit website and will be available during the day for people to watch absolutely free. It’s much like if you were attending a regular convention. After the day is over the presentations will no longer be available to watch for free but will be available for purchase as part of the summit upgrade package.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

A summit upgrade package. That’s how The Survival Summit can offer this material for free.

If the “online classes” are as good as I and others hope they are (which wouldn’t be much of a stretch consider the experts involved in the Summit), I can see those packages selling rather well as a resource to refer back to down the road.

Next Monday, January 20, The Survival Summit begins. Register now to book a place at this special online event.

Click on the following banner ad to go to the Summit’s website. If you register for the event via this link and eventually purchase a summit upgrade package, I receive a commission from the sale.

It’s the beginning of a new year. And if you’re like me, you may be looking at taking a class or two in the next twelve months.

First Aid and AED/CPR training through the American Red Cross is high on my list.

Zombie Survival Training is up there as well.

Zombie Survival what?

I recently stumbled upon a locally-taught class entitled “Zombie Survival Training” on Dabble.com, an Internet “marketplace for classes.” From their website:

If the zombie apocalypse happened right now, would you be ready? Do you even have a plan?

This course is designed to teach you how to survive the worst disaster imaginable, even a wide-spread pandemic of flesh-eating zombies. Using the zombie apocalypse as the worst case scenario, we will discuss survival strategies, food and water preparation and improvised weapons. This class is perfect for zombie lovers and survivalists alike.

After this class you will know where to go, what to eat and how to defend yourself when the unthinkable happens.

Okay, so it’s not really all about zombies. In fact, at the top of the Dabble page it’s classified as a “disaster survival class.”

The course is being taught by The Green Suite. From the Dabble page:

A self-proclaimed eco-warrior, Nick Conrad founded The Green Suite to enlighten others how to lessen their impact on the environment while improving their homes. Through The Green Suite, he teaches innovative, DIY ways of producing food, power, and products from recycled objects and repurposed materials. The Green Suite offers classes, tips, and kits online to help any aspiring eco-file get started. Nick has been featured in Chicago’s Red Eye for his Zombie Survival Class and presented as a guest speaker in local schools…

I’ve heard of Nick Conrad before. Kara Spak wrote on the Chicago Sun-Times website back on June 24, 2013:

Conrad is a zombie-genre fan but believes there are more realistic but equally sinister scenarios we should prepare for, like a weather disaster or a terrorist attack. Those who attend Zombie Survival Training- each class has room for about 30 people- will come away ready for those as well…

Conrad has background teaching survival skills. As an Eagle Scout in Texas, he taught wilderness survival…

Through Green Suite, Conrad offers more than just survival instruction. Spak added:

He’s an active environmentalist whose dream is to live totally off the grid in the city. His company, Green Suite, teaches local folks how to create more sustainable elements in their homes, like a hydroponic garden created from wine bottles. Through Green Suite, he teaches non-zombie-themed classes showing how to make a big but low-cost impact on the environment.

In his own two-bedroom Lake View apartment, Conrad has built solar panels, a hydroponic garden and a soil garden, all of which can be removed when he moves. On the third floor, Conrad said he is well positioned to survive a zombie apocalypse.

“I’ve got food, I’m building a water filtration system, I’ve got my own electricity,” he said…

Pretty cool stuff, if you ask me. And something I’d like to learn more about in the future.

According to Dabble, the next Zombie Survival Training class is scheduled to take place on January 29 at the Holiday Club, 4000 North Sheridan Road, Chicago (I remember hitting the Holiday Club with my pals back in the mid-90s and from what I recall- wink- it was a lot of fun). The cost is $25 per person, with only 3 spots left as I type this.

For more information, you can visit the Dabble page for the class here. To receive info on future classes and other instruction, you can subscribe to The Green Suite newsletter on their website here.

For those of you who aren’t familiar with H1N1, from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services website Flu.gov:

H1N1 is a flu virus. When it was first detected in 2009, it was called “swine flu” because the virus was similar to those found in pigs.

The H1N1 virus is currently a seasonal flu virus found in humans.

Okay, let’s dive in. I heard H1N1 mentioned for the first time this winter in the Chicago-area news the other day. From the website of Chicago CBS affiliate Channel 2 on Friday:

A strain of the swine flu is rapidly spreading throughout the Chicago area.

More than 20 of the H1N1 cases have been detected at Loyola University Medical Center in recent days, including five on Christmas Eve.

Now, CBS 2 has learned, another 41 cases have turned up at the University of Chicago Medical Center. Doctors say there have been eight cases in just the week before Christmas…

But it’s not just the Chicagoland area that’s experiencing a jump in H1N1 cases. From the health website WebMD last Thursday:

This year’s flu season may be off to a slow start nationwide, but infection rates are spiking in the south-central United States, where five deaths have already been reported in Texas.

And the predominant strain of flu so far has been H1N1 “swine” flu, which triggered the pandemic flu in 2009, federal health officials said Thursday.

“That may change, but right now most of the flu is H1N1,” said Dr. Michael Young, a medical officer with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s influenza division. “It’s the same H1N1 we have been seeing the past couple of years and that we really started to see in 2009 during the pandemic.”

States reporting increasing levels of flu activity include Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas, he said…

Here’s something interesting that you may not know about H1N1. From the WebMD piece:

Young noted that H1N1 flu is different from other types of flu because it tends to strike younger adults harder than older adults…

“This year, because it’s an H1N1 season so far, we are seeing more infections in younger adults,” Young said…

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has the following posted on their website regarding seasonal influenza:

Flu activity is increasing nationally and is high in some states. Additional increases are expected in the coming weeks. If you have not gotten your flu vaccination yet this season, you should get one now.

How many times have you seen this plot in a movie? Scientists toy around with a killer virus that accidentally escapes the lab and goes on to decimate humankind.

According to a number of prominent scientists recently, such a scenario isn’t as far-fetched as many of us would probably like it to be.

Steve Connor reported in The Independent (UK) last Friday:

Some of the world’s most eminent scientists have severely criticised the arguments used by some influenza researchers who are trying to make the H5N1 bird-flu virus more dangerous to humans by repeatedly infecting laboratory ferrets.

More than 50 senior scientists from 14 countries, including three Nobel laureates and several fellows of the Royal Society, have written to the European Commission denouncing claims that the ferret experiments are necessary for the development of new flu vaccines and anti-viral drugs…

The signatories of the letter, who include eminent virologists, microbiologists and vaccine experts, as well as Nobel laureates Sir Richard Roberts, Harald zur Hausen and Richard Ernst, warned that there is a serious risk of an accidental release of a pandemic H5N1 virus from laboratories undertaking such research.

“The potential for accidental release of a hazardous pathogen is real, not hypothetical, as demonstrated by an alarming increase in the number of potential and actual release events in laboratories working with high-threat pathogens,” they say.

“We are in a situation where the probabilities of a laboratory accident that leads to global spread of an escaped mutated virus are small but finite, while the impact of global spread could be catastrophic,” they add…

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

“As demonstrated by an alarming increase in the number of potential and actual release events in laboratories working with high-threat pathogens.”

Haven’t heard too much about this supposed increase in potential and actual “release events.”

Somewhat disturbing, if you ask me.

For those of you who don’t know, H5N1 is an avian (bird) flu virus. From the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services website Flu.gov:

H5N1 is a highly pathogenic avian (bird) flu virus that has caused serious outbreaks in domestic poultry in parts of Asia and the Middle East. Highly pathogenic refers to the virus’s ability to produce disease. Although H5N1 does not usually infect humans, nearly 600 cases of human cases of H5N1 have been reported from 15 countries since 2003.

Here’s an interesting piece I stumbled upon this morning while searching for some pandemic-related material out in cyberspace. Caitlin Bronson reported on the website of Insurance Business (America) this morning:

A global pandemic, a widespread natural disaster and a food/water/energy crisis are the top three extreme risks threatening the insurance industry in the near future, a Towers Watson survey of global insurance industry executives reveals.

The survey—part of Towers Watson’s biennial analysis Extreme Risks—asked more than 30,000 top executives to rate very rare events that would have a large impact on global economic growth and the insurance sector.

In addition to health, weather and technological risks, the insurance executives also saw financial disasters as having a large role to play in the future of the insurance industry. An economic depression, a banking crisis and a default by a major sovereign borrower were all listed in the executives’ top 10 concerns…

It’s a short, insightful read (I wonder if the insurance industry is any good at forecasting major crises/disasters?), and the article can be viewed in its entirety on the Insurance Business (America) website here.

In case you weren’t aware, autumn began today, September 22, at 4:44 ET. Fall is my favorite season of the year, when I try to get outdoors as much as I can. The next month or so will also be a time when I’ll be working hard getting prepared for my first winter in the new house- including stocking up on items to fend off/address a cold or the flu.

Speaking of influenza, the LiveScience website ran a piece this last week which served as a reminder of what could be in store for us one of these winters- a time when people are indoors and in closer proximity to each other, making catching the flu a whole lot easier. Tia Ghose wrote on Tuesday:

A recently declassified U.S. government plan for how to react in the face of a pandemic flu has some scary, but realistic predictions.

According to a 2009 Department of Defense plan, if a flu pandemic strikes, about 30 percent of the U.S. population could fall ill, with 3 million hospitalizations and 2 million deaths. Basic services, such as medical care or essential supply deliveries, will probably be disrupted.

In the plan, the government also says it assumes that a vaccine against a completely new flu strain wouldn’t become available for several months. Even after that, production will ramp up slowly.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

According to Ghose, a flu expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital out in Memphis, Tennessee, backed-up those DOD projections.

Scary.

Back in March 2007, the non-profit, non-partisan Trust for America’s Health (TFAH) released a well-known report on the matter entitled Pandemic Flu and Potential for U.S. Economic Recession in which they said:

According to analyses by 3 major financial and economic research institutions, during a severe pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could drop between 4.25 and 6 percent. A “severe” outbreak is based on the 1918 pandemic, when 30 percent of the population became ill and 2.5 percent of those who became ill died. In modern times, this would translate into approximately 90 million Americans becoming ill and roughly 2.25 million deaths. An outbreak of this severity would almost certainly lead to a major economic recession.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

The Washington, D.C.-based organization added:

The CBO, the ANU/Lowy Institute, and BMO Nesbitt Burns developed national assumptions about what would constitute a “severe” or “ultra” pandemic outbreak, using estimates of a 30 percent attack rate and 2.5 percent case-fatality rate under “severe” and “ultra” scenarios. In 2005, the national population was nearly 300 million people. With these estimates, approximately 90 million people would get ill, and of those 90 million, roughly 2.25 million would die.

As I type this, the U.S. Census “Population Clock” says the national population is 316,736,690 persons. Updating the above model using the more recent 2010 Census data would show around 95 million Americans possibly falling ill from pandemic flu, with 2.4 million of those stricken potentially dying.

Last week, I blogged about the World Health Organization having urged health workers around the world to be on the alert for symptoms of the deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, or MERS.

(Editor’s note: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention refers to the virus as MERS-CoV)

This morning, I came across a worrisome Associated Press piece on the FOX News website. The AP reports:

A mysterious new respiratory virus that originated in the Middle East spreads easily between people and appears more deadly than SARS, doctors reported Wednesday after investigating the biggest outbreak in Saudi Arabia.

More than 60 cases of what is now called MERS, including 38 deaths, have been recorded by the World Health Organization in the past year, mostly in Saudi Arabia. So far, illnesses haven’t spread as quickly as SARS did in 2003, ultimately triggering a global outbreak that killed about 800 people.

An international team of doctors who investigated nearly two dozen cases in eastern Saudi Arabia found the new coronavirus has some striking similarities to SARS. Unlike SARS, though, scientists remain baffled as to the source of MERS.

The team of doctors published a report about the MERS cases on June 19 on The New England Journal of Medicine website. In “Hospital Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus,” the physicians noted:

Acute viral respiratory tract infections cause considerable morbidity and mortality and pose a risk of outbreaks in health care settings. We describe a cluster of MERS-CoV infections and report health care–associated human-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV. The 65% case fatality rate in this outbreak is of concern.

Not only did the team find MERS spread easily among humans and within hospitals in the cases they investigated, but that 65 percent death rate was much higher than for SARS back in 2003, in which 9 to 12 percent of those diagnosed perished, even when taking into consideration people over 65, where the SARS death rate was higher than 50% (source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services).

Prior to Survival And Prosperity’s two-week hiatus, I’d been tracking and blogging about viruses that have pandemic potential. This included the H7N9 bird flu virus in China and the novel coronavirus (nCoV) in the Middle East. While compiling material to blog about I stumbled on the following yesterday on the FOX News website. From Reuters:

The World Health Organization on Monday urged health workers around the world to be on the alert for symptoms of the deadly Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS), which has the potential to circle the globe and cause a pandemic.

The United Nations agency, which issued new, long-awaited guidance to countries on influenza pandemics, said the world was also in the same “alert phase” for two human strains of bird flu – H5N1, which emerged a decade ago, and H7N9, first detected in China in March.

So the novel coronavirus in the Middle East is now being called MERS.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have published information about the virus on their website (they refer to it as MERS-CoV). I found the most important to be:

Q: What are the symptoms of MERS?
A: Most people who got infected with MERS-CoV developed severe acute respiratory illness with symptoms of fever, cough, and shortness of breath. About half of them died. Some people were reported as having a mild respiratory illness.

Q: Does MERS-CoV spread from person to person?
A: MERS-CoV has been shown to spread between people who are in close contact. Transmission from infected patients to healthcare personnel has also been observed. Clusters of cases in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UK, France, Tunisia, and Italy are being investigated.

Q: Is CDC concerned?
A: Yes, CDC is concerned about MERS-CoV. The virus has caused severe illness in most infected people, and about half of them have died. Also, the virus spreads from person to person and has spread between countries. CDC recognizes the potential for the virus to spread further and cause more cases and clusters globally, including in the United States.

Q: Has anyone in the United States gotten infected?
A: So far, there are no reports of anyone in the United States getting infected with MERS-CoV.

Hopefully, it stays that way, as there is no vaccine available to fight MERS-CoV.

Of the 55 recorded cases of MERS-CoV, 31 of those infected with the virus have died.

As for H7N9, yesterday China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission reported there are only 14 patients from the outbreak still in hospitals (via The Japan Times). Warmer weather following the end of winter in China is thought to have helped contain the outbreak.

Of the 131 recorded cases of H7N9, 39 of those infected with the virus have died.

Anyone been paying attention to the spread of the H7N9 bird flu virus in China? This is something to keep an eye out for. From the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website:

On April 1, 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) first reported 3 human infections with a new influenza A (H7N9) virus in China. Since then, additional cases have been reported. Most reported cases have severe respiratory illness and, in some cases, have died. At this time, no cases of H7N9 outside of China have been reported. The new H7N9 virus has not been detected in people or birds in the United States.

This new H7N9 virus is an avian (bird) influenza (flu) virus. Human infections with avian influenza (AI, or “bird flu”) are rare but have occurred in the past, most commonly after exposure to infected poultry. However, this is the first time that this bird flu subtype (H7N9) has been found in people. This virus is very different from other H7N9 viruses previously found in birds.

An investigation by Chinese authorities is ongoing. H7N9 viruses have been detected in poultry in the same area where human infections have occurred. Many of the human cases of H7N9 are reported to have had contact with poultry. However some cases reportedly have not had such contact. Close contacts of confirmed H7N9 patients are being followed to see if any human-to-human spread of H7N9 might have occurred. Based on previous experience with other avian influenza viruses – most notably H5N1 – some limited human-to-human spread of this H7N9 virus would not be surprising. Most importantly, however, no sustained person-to-person spread of the H7N9 virus has been found at this time. Ongoing (sustained) person-to-person spread is necessary for a pandemic to occur.

This is a “novel” (non-human) virus and therefore has the potential to cause a pandemic if it were to change to become easily and sustainably spread from person-to-person. So far, this virus has not been determined to have that capability. However, influenza viruses constantly change and it’s possible that this virus could gain that ability. CDC takes routine preparedness actions whenever a new virus with pandemic potential is identified, including developing a candidate vaccine virus to make a vaccine if it were to be needed. There is no licensed H7 vaccine available at this time.

According to Bloomberg.com this morning, the CDC is trying to stay on top of this novel bird flu. Anna Edney reported:

U.S. hospitals are being urged to head off a spread of the new H7N9 avian influenza by looking out for people exhibiting flu-like symptoms who have traveled to China or had contact with someone who has the illness.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention held a conference call with health-care professionals yesterday to review procedures for treating bird-flu patients and controlling infections, Erin Burns, an agency spokeswoman, said in an e- mail. The Atlanta-based agency today issued interim guidance on the use of antiviral agents to treat H7N9 infections.

Issuing the guidance and holding the clinician calls “would be considered routine preparedness measures for an outbreak with pandemic potential,” Burns said.

China has recorded 92 human infections of the H7N9 strain of bird flu, with 17 of the cases fatal, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from national and provincial governments and the World Health Organization.

Speaking of the WHO, they’re now at ground zero in China investigating the outbreak. From the China Daily website today:

WHO experts are inspecting Chinese regions that have been hit by the H7N9 avian influenza, according to the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

A Friday statement from the commission said the expert team, which is visiting at the commission’s invitation, consists of Chinese and foreign experts in epidemiology and clinical management.

The team members will survey labs, hospitals, clinics, markets and sites where infections were reported in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as familiarize themselves with China’s prevention and control methods.

The commission said the experts will offer suggestions on controlling the virus, as well as issue an initial inspection report on April 24.

“Health officials in the UK believe they have the strongest evidence yet that a new respiratory illness similar to the deadly Sars virus can spread from person to person.

Cases of the infection may come from contact with animals. However, if the virus can spread between people it poses a much more serious threat…”

-BBC News website, February 13, 2013

Novel coronavirus (NCoV). A SARS-like virus I’ve been hearing more of recently. And of particular concern to the World Health Organization (WHO). From a February 16 posting on the “Disease Outbreak News” section of their website:

The United Kingdom (UK) has informed WHO of another confirmed case of infection with the novel coronavirus (NCoV). This is the third case confirmed in the country this month and is in the same family cluster as the two recently confirmed cases.

The latest confirmed case does not have recent travel history outside the UK. The case is recovering from mild respiratory illness and is currently well.

The confirmation with NCoV in this case with no recent travel history indicates that infection was acquired in the UK. Although this new case offers further indications of person-to-person transmission, no sustained person-to-person transmission has been identified…

As of 16 February 2013, WHO has been informed of a total of 12 confirmed cases of human infection with NCoV, including five deaths…

WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event nor does it recommend that any travel or trade restrictions be applied.

WHO continues to closely monitor the situation.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

12 confirmed cases of this new coronavirus. 5 deaths.

The vibe I’m getting from public health circles is that human-to-human transmission of NCoV is pretty difficult, so there’s not much worry of a pandemic at this point in time.

Still, like the WHO suggested in their bulletin, it’s something worth keeping an eye on. People infected with the novel coronavirus have developed acute respiratory illness with symptoms of shortness of breath, cough, and pneumonia. There are no specific treatments for the illnesses caused by the virus.

You can learn more about the novel coronavirus at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website here. And you can read that entire WHO infection update on their site here.

Post number 1,000 on Survival And Prosperity, “Protecting and Growing Self and Wealth in These Uncertain Times.”

It feels like it was only yesterday when I launched this successor to Boom2Bust.com, “The Most Hated Blog On Wall Street.” In fact, it’s been almost 22 months since its debut. My how time flies. Especially when bad economic news keeps piling on. The Pollyanna gang might argue that Keynesian strategies pursued by Washington and the Fed successfully ended the “Great Recession” and have put the United States on a sustainable path to recovery. I’m of the approach that when a lot of money is poured into the financial system you’re bound to see some sort of pick-up in activity. At least initially. And, as we’ve witnessed, only temporarily, as more “stimulus” is required to keep the whole thing afloat.

But where has that left the country? As of last week, over $16 trillion in debt. And on the verge of yet another “quantitative easing.” And anyone who really believes debt doesn’t matter is in for a rude awakening when the nation’s “financial reckoning day” finally does arrives.

Since the launch of Boom2Bust.com back in May 2007, I’ve been warning about a coming U.S. financial crash. As much as some might credit me for calling it, the maelstrom that blew through the U.S. and global economies back in the fall of 2008 was only a part of the collapse that I still see heading our way. Somewhat surprisingly, Washington and the Fed have managed to “kick the can down the road” for the time being. But the road only goes so far. Will the crash happen all it once, or will it be drawn out over several years? I don’t know. I just know that my interpretation of the available data leads me to believe its coming.

To complicate matters, these days Americans must take into account other threats besides an economic crash. Depending on what one believes, these could include:

There are others. Nevertheless, a lot of threats exist these days which endanger our survival and prosperity.

So in 2012, are we looking at the end of the world? Probably not. But most likely the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI), particularly as it relates to the U.S. economy and larger financial system. Accordingly, life in America is about to get a whole lot tougher for most (if it already hasn’t). A number of really smart individuals who predicted the 2008 global economic crisis and “Great Recession” suggest we could see:

Despite all this, I must remind you that I’m not talking about the end of the world here. Remember, even at its worst unemployment during the Great Depression ran somewhere around 25 percent. While that really sucked for those without a job, not everyone found themselves in a soup kitchen line. The economy and society, though hobbled, still functioned.

I’m a big believer that, despite the coming crash, things will turn out okay for America in the long-run.

I also believe that focusing on one’s personal and financial safety and growth right now will go a long way in helping you and your loved ones come out on the other side of the approaching storm in reasonably good shape.

Wishing you all the best now, and down the rocky road I see in store for us,

It’s summertime, and the last thing on most Americans’ minds is the flu.

However, one particular type of influenza- H5N1 avian influenza, or “bird flu”- is on scientists’ minds, and what they’re learning about it is disturbing.

Rob Waugh wrote on the Daily Mail (UK) website yesterday:

As scientists delve deeper into H5N1 bird flu, they have discovered it is only three steps away from mutating into a potentially lethal human pandemic form.

The find has added new urgency to scientists’ quest for a way to prevent a deadly global outbreak that could kill millions…

In 2009, during the H1N1 swine flu pandemic, vaccines only became available months after the virus had spread around the world – and even then there was only enough for one in five of the world’s 7 billion people.

Next time, experts say, we need another approach.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

As a result, the scientific community is discussing pre-pandemic vaccination, or immunization before a flu pandemic strikes. Waugh added:

The last flu pandemic was widely viewed as a mild strain… A mutated human pandemic form of H5N1 bird flu could be a whole different ball game. H5N1 does not yet pass easily from birds to people but when it does it kills around 60 percent of those infected.

The virus continues to spread among birds in Asia, with China reporting the latest cull of more than 150,000 chickens in the far western region of Xinjiang just last week. As of July 6, the WHO counts 607 cases of people infected by bird flu globally. Of those, 358 died, a fatality rate of 59 percent.

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

There’s been controversy over the recent release of two research papers about H5N1 avian influenza. Donald McNeil Jr. wrote on the website of The New York Times on June 21:

The more controversial of two papers describing how the lethal H5N1 bird flu could be made easier to spread was published Thursday, six months after a scientific advisory board suggested that the papers’ most potentially dangerous data be censored.

The paper, by scientists at Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands, identified five mutations apparently necessary to make the bird flu virus spread easily among ferrets, which catch the same flus that humans do.

The paper’s publication, in the journal Science, ended an acrimonious debate over whether such results should ever be released. Critics said they could help a rogue scientist create a superweapon. Proponents said the world needed to identify dangerous mutations so countermeasures could be designed.

“There is always a risk,” Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a telephone news conference held by Science. “But I believe the benefits are greater than the risks.”

(Editor’s note: Italics added for emphasis)

Let’s hope Dr. Fauci is right.

Sources:

Waugh, Rob. “Bird flu is ‘only three steps’ from mutating into deadly new form that could cause global pandemic – and scientists are scrambling for new vaccines.” Daily Mail. 11 July 2012. (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2172043/Bird-flu-steps-mutating-deadly-new-form-cause-human-pandemic–scientists-scrambling-new-vaccines.html#ixzz20LIk4zJ5). 12 July 2012.

McNeil Jr., Donald G. “Bird Flu Paper Is Published After Debate.” The New York Times. 21 June 2012. (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/health/h5n1-bird-flu-research-that-stoked-fears-is-published.html?_r=1). 12 July 2012.

Before I work on those episode reviews of Doomsday Preppers, I’d like to share with you something I find a bit worrisome- the newly-created “Doomsday” flu virus, as some are calling it. I wouldn’t be that concerned if this so-called “superflu” didn’t also come with “instructions.” From Margaret Munro on the National Post (Canada) website this past Wednesday:

One of the most controversial genetically altered microbes ever created was unveiled Wednesday — complete with instructions on how to engineer the hybrid flu virus in the lab.

The details, published in the journal Nature, have been under wraps for months because of fears they might be misused by bioterrorists.

The virus was created by a team led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka at the University of Wisconsin-Madison… Working in a secure lab, the researchers took a gene from H5N1 and gave it to H1N1, the flu virus that caused the human pandemic in 2009. The researchers then played with the hybrid in the lab to create four mutations that are contagious in ferrets, which are considered good proxies for humans.

The researchers “demonstrate that H5N1 viruses do have the potential to cause a human pandemic,” says a report accompanying the study in Nature.

While the strain of H5N1 that’s now circulating isn’t highly-contagious among humans- it is wicked deadly. It’s claimed the mortality rate is 59 percent in officially-confirmed cases.

However, while contagious, the new hybrid flu virus wasn’t found to be lethal in the ferrets (“good proxies for humans”). This was emphasized by flu expert Earl Brown of the University of Ottawa, who is skeptical about a bioterror agent originating from this work. From the article:

Brown said an experienced virologist could take the information in the Nature paper, order up the necessary genes from a scientific supplier, and engineer hybrid flu viruses resembling the ones in the Wisconsin experiment.

“If you put your mind to it you could do it, but you would have to be good,” said Brown. But he added he doubts the virus would be much of a threat since the Wisconsin team found its hybrid virus, though scientifically intriguing, was not lethal when it was transmitted between ferrets…

Brown said he agrees with erring on the side of caution, but noted the research on pathogens is heavily regulated already and scientists have an incentive not to misuse pathogens with the potential to kill them.

Still, I’m concerned about potential “evil geniuses” out there who are in the position to provide their services to the highest bidder (Pakistan’s “Dr. X,” allegedly).

Even more so, influenza virology experts or others that may consumed by ideology- and without the fear of death- who might also be in a position to produce a lethal “Doomsday” flu virus.

One last thing. How come various Canadian mainstream media outlets are running this story while their American counterparts aren’t touching it for the most part? The new hyrbid flu virus was created in Wisconsin, after all. Trying not to “scare” the American public? Some will wonder.

The zombie craze. It’s been big for a while now. And while I personally don’t see myself becoming the victim of a roving band of animated corpses, I still recognize the value in this new-found interest in all-things-zombie. Discussing a recent zombie-themed pandemic drill held at Elmhurst College in the Chicago suburbs, I wrote back on March 8:

Glad to hear the zombie fad is serving a useful purpose, rather than just supplying the Chiller TV channel with an ample amount of low-budget programming.

Two things. First off, I wasn’t knocking Chiller TV. I find the channel to be a blast to watch late at night/early in the morning. Keep in mind, however, that comes from a USA Network “Up All Night” fan from the eighties/nineties.

Second, like with that pandemic drill, incorporating the zombie theme with preparedness training is proving to be popular with the general public. Case in point, this morning I came across a CNN/Money video segment on the Zombie Survival Course located in South Jersey (about 60 minutes outside of Philadelphia).

While the Zombie Survival Course is obviously zombie apocalypse-themed, a quick look at what’s taught reveals its value in preparing for/dealing with other perhaps more-probable SHTF situations. From their website:

A few of the topics that are taught in our courses include:

• Find and create a safe environment and shelter
• Train in self-defense and melee weapons
• Handle and use a crossbow
• Use firearms-handgun, shotgun and rifle (live ammo)
• Stay healthy now and then
• Master the art of leadership
• Collect, prepare and store your supplies
• Acquire transportation (hotwire)
• And much more…

Looking on the Internet I noticed other zombie survival training classes out there these days.

The zombie apocalypse. Not exactly what many would envision TEOTWAWKI will be like. But don’t let that turn you off from training for it, as a number of topics taught could be very useful- especially for those just getting started in prepping/survivalism. And, quite frankly, it sounds like a whole lot of fun as well.

From My Other Blog

Continuing “Greek Week” on Offshore Safe Deposit Boxes, Greek state television has announced Greek banks will remain closed for the remainder of this week. Both Reuters and the Associated Press have reported cash withdrawals from Greek bank safe deposit boxes have been prohibited. Reuters ran its story Sunday while the Associated Press revealed Monday: No […] ...

While pouring over the latest news of Greece’s sovereign debt crisis tonight, I spotted the following snippet on the Daily Mail (UK) website. Nick Fagge reported Wednesday: Safety-box deposit firms have reported a huge increase in demand with wealthy Greeks storing their cash and other valuables anywhere other than their bank… (Editor’s note: Bold added […] ...

Yesterday, I blogged about a Reuters piece from Sunday which said cash withdrawals from Greek bank safe deposit boxes were now prohibited. Monday, the Associated Press reported that accessing currency from these containers might be left to the legislative process. From the Fox News website: There was confusion Sunday night over the fate of bank […] ...