El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.

Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next weekAn area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.

Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

you all have forgotten Potts Theorem # 1, already? The level of angst and dis-harmony on the Blog is directly and proportionately related to the level of cyclonic activity in the Tropical Atlantic and surrounding areas. Or something like that, anyway. We never did come up with Theorem # 2.

Many Naval assets along with the submersibles are en-route to the area,and if were Lucky and the equipment works well,there is a chance,although slim,that the Ping will be heard and the FDR and CVR will be found.

Quoting plywoodstatenative:I would like a read by those in here that understand what happened in Miami yesterday, as to what chance we have of a repeat of that scenario today?

There's definitely a chance for some severe t-storms there. You've got the upper low over north Florida bringing in cold temperatures aloft which will increase the instability of the atmosphere. Tornado threat is minimal-to-none though. There's already some storms firing near Miami:

But if the fuselage stayed intact,..most went down with it into the depths ,where the cold and pressures will delay decomp and maybe a submersible will find them. I dont think many more Human remains will be found...like these two were.

Being males,they may have been kept afloat by some Lightweight debris as a seat or other floating debris.

The people on Board would have become unconscious immediately at that Flight Level.As for bodies in the water,..after impact,..they usually form a X position thru time as they expand and become bloated and rigid in the heat and saltwater.

Many things can be determined from the articles found as well as the Human remains.

Patrap, due to lack of debris initially, I believe it nosed down in. Much more detail is coming out.

They do have many assets on site and hopefully the pinger stayed with the boxes.