Virginia contrarian streak could end

If the polls hold and Terry McAuliffe prevails in his bid to become governor of Virginia, a striking pattern will come to an end.

Call it Virginia’s contrarian side. It dates back to the 1970s, when Republican John Dalton won the governorship in 1977, following the election of Democrat Jimmy Carter 12 months earlier. Ever since, the party that loses the White House comes back to claim the top prize in Virginia politics the following year.

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McAuliffe campaign in 60 secs

While Republicans held the White House through the Reagan-Bush years, Democrats ruled the roost in the Old Dominion, electing Charles Robb, Gerald Baliles and L. Douglas Wilder. During the Clinton years, George Allen and Jim Gilmore became governor. And when Bush 43 scored victories in 2000 and 2004, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine capitalized in the years that followed.

If Ken Cuccinelli pulls an upset on Tuesday, a year out from President Barack Obama’s successful reelection bid, the streak extends to 10, but few observers expect it.

University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth sees anger at work. “Anger is a really motivating factor in politics,” he says. “So when people lose a presidential election, they’re the angriest” – and therefore, more likely to turn out in Virginia’s unusual off-off-year gubernatorial election.

“You see anger about the really conservative social agenda coming from Republicans in the (state) Legislature,” Farnsworth says. “And that has really turned off a lot of pro-business Republicans, particularly in Northern Virginia.”