Toronto real estate exits the red zone for the first time in four years, says CMHC

Canada’s national housing agency has moved the Toronto region housing market out of the high-risk red zone into the moderate yellow area for the first time since 2015.

There are still signs that the area’s market is vulnerable to price acceleration and overheating, but overvaluation — where home prices exceed income levels by an excessive amount — eased from moderate to low in the first three quarters of the year, said Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), which released its fourth-quarter Housing Market Assessment on Thursday.

“From an overall perspective there’s still a moderate degree of vulnerability but, of course with the overvaluation easing, that has led to our assessment coming in at moderate,” said Dana Senagama, manager of market analysis for Ontario.

But while the market as a whole is at less risk, some housing types, such as condominiums, are still vulnerable to overheating and price acceleration, she added.

“While the activity has softened in the low-rise category, we are seeing heightened activity in the more price-friendly point for first-time buyers in condos and towns,” said Senagama.

As overvaluation eased, home-buying activity has picked up since the first quarter of this year. The average home price increased by 0.8 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2019 on an inflation-adjusted basis. Disposable income levels also grew by 0.5 percent.

“Supply continues to be the defining factor in the Toronto housing market — or rather the lack of supply — both in homeownership but also in rental,” said Senagama.

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There has been a tight supply in low-rise housing since CMHC started doing the Housing Market Assessment in the third quarter of 2015, but as demand for condos grows, it’s increasingly an issue in that segment too, she said.

The latest report gives the national housing market a moderate rating for the third consecutive quarter, following 10 quarters where it was rated at a high degree of vulnerability.

Hamilton also saw its vulnerability rating drop from high to moderate, thanks to lower overvaluation.

“Overheating and price acceleration are still signaled due to large market imbalances that developed at the beginning of the latest three-year period. However, an unwinding of those imbalances has occurred since then,” said the CMHC report.