DY plays qualifier David Goffin. Goffin has moved steadily upwards throughout his career and is now at a career high. His 2012 record for ATP events is 3-2, better than DY's 2-6. He easily defeated two higher ranked opponents to qualify for this tournament. I hope DY regains his form but until I see evidence of this, I favor Goffin in this match. DY has a 40% chance of winning.

Been a very disappointing start to the season in 2012 for Donald, very reminiscent of his start in 2008, when he got up to around the top 70 after a great run of form at the end of 2007 in challengers, but fell back because he couldn't cut it at the ATP level. I thought things had changed, but apparently not. And with the US HC season over, Donald is going to have it tough now as the next months he'll be playing on surfaces less favorable for him, clay and grass.

Luckily for Donald, his two wins have come at the AO and Memphis. So he's earned over 100 points this season with winning only two matches. The problem now, however, is Donald is mostly defending points from last season at this point. He lost R3 points from Indian Wells, he lost qualifying points from Miami. He will lose 80 points from Tallahassee in a couple weeks, and defends 48 points in Savannah in about a month's time, yet will be playing on red clay in Europe during this period. It appears very likely Donald will lose his top 50 spot in the very near future. What's most important is that Donald can gain enough points through the spring to minimize the pressure he will have of defending the points he gained from the US Open series onward. Hopefully he can surprise and pick up some wins on the clay.

His next scheduled tournament is Casablanca in a couple weeks. He'll be a top four seed there so hopefully the draw works out to his advantage and he can win some matches.

So DY is playing Indian Wells next week, where (hope I'm wrong but) I predict he will lose Round 1 in maddening fashion. He then plays Miami. But...for the next tournament, he has NOT entered Houston. He has entered Casablanca!

Of all the tennis tournaments, in all the towns, in all the world, he walks into that one. He is the only American entered. At least he won't lose to the usual suspects like Russell and Sweeting. Casablanca - play it once, play it again.

Donald's poor start might have cost him a spot on the DC team after Fish dropped out. Donald is ranked higher than Harrison but Harrison has had much better results this year. Harrison had a much better chance against Simon and Tsonga than Donald at this point. I'm sure DY's clash with the USTA didn't help either. Better step it up, or it's back to challengers and qualies!

In 1999, Vince Spadea had a breakthrough year and reached a ranking of around #20. The very next year, he did a complete faceplant which included a record 21 consecutive losses. Donald Young's 2011/2012 reminds me of Vince Spadea.

The good news is that although Spadea fell precipitously in the rankings (to somewhere in the 200's), he doggedly persisted and eventually made it all the way back! There's still hope for Donald!

I can't see things changing unless he changes his approach and gets new coaches. He had a golden opportunity to make a move with a top-40 ranking and a friendly U.S. hardcourt season and did nothing with it.