Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

MEARI (FALCON) is expected to continue accelerating NNW-ward across the Northern Philippine Sea and will continue to intensify for the next 24 to 48 hours. MEARI shall reach Typhoon status (Category 1) by tomorrow (Sat) afternoon, upon exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and shall turn northward as it moves across East China Sea. Below are the summary of the 2-day forecast for MEARI (FALCON).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. MEARI (FALCON) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles) from the center. MEARI is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).

MEARI's (FALCON) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

YAEYAMA GROUP OF ISLANDS: About 30 km ENE of Ishigakijima [ETA: between 12:00-1:00 AM HKT Saturday, June 25].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

MEARI's (FALCON) very large circulation continues to consolidate and strengthen while over the Northern Philippine Sea with its southwestern & western outer rainbands affecting the eastern coast of Luzon. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off North-Central Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading along the Eastern Coast of Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) along MEARI's (FALCON) western circulation (near Batanes Group). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 24 JUNE POSITION: 19.5N 126.0E.*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NUMEROUS SMALL-SCALE VORTICES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND ROTATE AROUND THEPERIPHERY OF TS 07W. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATIONHAS CONSOLIDATED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND IS THEREFORE MOREREADILY IDENTIFIED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT POSITION ISBASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 231659Z AMSR-E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENTWITH WIND SPEEDS INDICATED IN A 231220Z ASCAT PASS. TS 07W ISTRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICALSTEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE 35 KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEENADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LARGER IN BOTH THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BASED ONTHE ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE GALE AREA TO THE EAST ANDNORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACKPOLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGETHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANDSUBSIDENCE ALOFT INTRODUCED BY INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOWWILL VIE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO LIMIT THEINTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU72, THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND WEAKENUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGEOVER COOLER WATER...(more info)