Socio-political attitudes of the residents of Ukraine and support rating of the political parties and political leaders: November 2016

By Anton Grushetskiy

Major results:

82% of the Ukrainians estimate the current socio-economic situation as "bad". The main reason for that, according to the Ukrainians, is corruption in high places - so is said by 66% of respondents.

84% of the Ukrainians generally negatively estimate "everything that is happening in the country." Of those who gave this assessment, 56% believe that in this situation, "it is better to go out to protest," 16% believe that "it is better to endure it for the sake of peace." Thus, 40% of the Ukrainians say they are ready to personally take part in protests against the current government.

69% of the Ukrainians believe that the President Petro Poroshenko is leading the country in the wrong direction. It is believed that he leads it in the right direction by 14%.

70% of the respondents believe that the President Petro Poroshenko is not able to lead the country out of the crisis. The opposite opinion is shared by 14%. However, 68% of the Ukrainians do not believe that the President Petro Poroshenko is able to stop the war, 16% believe that he can do it.

The establishment of visa-free regime with the EU is important for 40% of the Ukrainians, unimportant - for 52%.

Most of the Ukrainians (65%) believe that subsidies are "redistribution of funds in favor of the oligarchs" (do not think so - 12%). At the same time, 44% believe that the subsidy is a "significant help from the state to the Ukrainian families", 38% do not think so.

54% of the Ukrainians have a negative attitude to the idea of paying for utilities in installments, 23% have a positive attitude to this.

13% of the Ukrainians believe that raising the minimum wage to 3200 UAH will lead to a significant increase in their personal income, 75% do not think so.

According to the results of the anonymous survey of the respondents (through the method of "secret box"), if parliamentary elections were had been held in mid-November, the representatives of seven political parties would have passed. The All-Ukrainian Union "Batkivshchyna" would have received more support than any other party (20% of those who intends to vote and decided with the choice). Further by the level of support go "Block of Petro Poroshenko" (13.3%), the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko (9.8%), "Opozytsiinyi blok" (9%), the party "Za zhyttia" (8.2%), " Samopomich" (6.0%) and "Hromadianska pozytsia"(5.8%). The party "Svoboda" is on the verge of passing (4.9%).

The results of the anonymous survey of the respondents (through the method of "secret box"), if presidential elections in Ukraine had been held in mid-November 2016, in the first round Yulia Tymoshenko would have received the most votes (24% of those who intend to vote and decided with the choice). In the second place is Petro Poroshenko (17.9%).

In the case of the second round of Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko, the former would receive more votes.

In a period of November 4 - 13, 2016 Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) has conducted its own public opinion poll in Ukraine. Data were collected from 2039 respondents living in 110 settlements in all regions of Ukraine (except for AR of Crimea) through the personal interviews. The sample is stochastic, 4-staged with quota selection on the last stage, the sample is representative of the population of Ukraine aged 18 and above.

In Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (regions) survey was conducted only in the territories controlled by Ukraine.

The statistical sample error (with the probability of 0.95 and with the design–effect of 1.5) does not exceed 3.3% for indicators close to 50%, 2.8% – for indicators close to 25%, 2.0% – for indicators close to 10%, 1.4% – for indicators close to 5%.

Commentary of KIIS experts:

“The work of the sociologists in the past two years has deteriorated because of the problems with the possibilities of surveying in Donbas. There is no reliable statistics about how many people live in controlled and uncontrolled parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Sociologists have to decide on the distribution of the sample under various hypotheses - with the regard to migration, without migration, given the uncontrolled territory, excluding it etc. That is why the results of different polling companies may vary by several percents (especially it concerns ratings). In this survey sample was distributed only in the controlled part of the Donbass, in the same proportion, that, according to the CEC, Donbass voters constituted in the last parliamentary elections (October 2014)”.

The estimation of socio-economic situation in Ukraine

To the question “In general, how do you estimate the current socio-economical situation in Ukraine?” 82.4% of the respondents said “negatively”. The variant “neither good nor bad/ moderately” was chosen by 15.5% of the respondents, “positively” – by 0.8%. Also, 1.3% of the respondents could not answer the question.

The answers to the question “In your opinion, what is the main cause of the current socio-economic situation in Ukraine?”distributed as follows (respondent could choose up to 2 variants):

65.9% choose “large-scale corruption in high places”;

40.5% – “military actions in the East of Ukraine”;

33.6% - “helplessness and incompetence of the current executive”;

25.8% – “failure of the Verkhovna Rada to adopt the laws the country needs”;

5.6% - “raid in order to exclude Ukraine as a competitor from the global arena conducted by external forces”;

2.7% - “actions of the “fifth column” of Russia”;

1.8% named other variants;

2% did not reply.

To the question “In general, how do you estimate what is happening in the country – positively or negatively?”, 83.5% of the respondents said “negatively”. Option “positively” was chosen by 5.3% of the respondents, 11.1% of the respondents could not answer the question.

Protest intentions of the population

To the question “In your opinion, what is better - to endure all that is happening in the country for the sake of peace, or go out to the streets to protest?” among those who negatively evaluate everything that is happening in Ukraine 16% think it is better “to endure for the sake of peace”, while 56% think it is better “to go out to protest”.

At the same time, to the question “Are you personally ready to participate in protests against the current government?” among all Ukrainians 39.6% said they were “ready”, 46.1% are “not ready” to participate, 14.3% could not answer.

In what direction the President Petro Poroshenko leads the country. The ability of the President to lead the country out of the crisis and stop the war.

To the question “In your opinion, does the President of Ukraine lead the country in the right or in the wrong direction?”, 68.5% chose the variant “in the wrong direction”. The variant “in the right direction” was chosen by 13.9% of the respondents, 17.6% of the respondents could not answer the question.

To the question “Do you believe that Petro Poroshenko is able to lead Ukraine out of the crisis?” 69.9% said “no”, 14.1% of the respondents said “yes”, 16% of the respondents could not answer.

To the question “ Do you believe that Petro Poroshenko is able to stop the war?” 68.1% answered “no”, 16.4% of the respondents chose “yes”, 15.5% could not answer.

Attitude to the complete political restart of the Ukrainian government. Support for the early parliamentary elections

To the question “Do you personally support or not support the idea of some politicians about the necessity of a complete reloading of the government of Ukraine including the President, the Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, courts and law enforcement bodies?” 63% answered “support”, 17.9% of the respondents do not support, 19.1% could not answer.

At the same time,38.3% of the Ukrainians support the conduction of early parliamentary elections, 41% - do not support. Also, 20.7% have not decided on the matter.

Importance of the establishing visa-free regime with the European Union

To the question “For you personally is visa-free regime with the European Union important or not important?” 40.1% said it was “important”. It is not important for 52% of the respondents, 7.9% could not answer.

While 67.2% of the respondents in the Western region chose “important”, it is different for all other regions: 36.6% in the Central region, 21.7% in the South region, 25.3% in the Eastern region, 17.8% in Donbas.

Utility tariffs, subsidies, raising the minimum wage

65.4% of the respondents agree that “subsidies for the payment for the utilities is a redistribution of state money in favor of the oligarchs”, 11.7% do not think so, 22.9% could not answer.

At the same time, 44.4% of the respondents agree that “subsidies for the payment for the utilities is a significant help from the government to the Ukrainian families”, 37.9% do not agree. Moreover, amongst the respondents who said their families received subsidies, 59% agree that subsidies are a “significant help”.

To the question “What is your attitude to the idea of paying for housing services in installments, that was recently voiced by the Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman?” 22.8% said “positive”, while 54.2% express the “negative” attitude, 23.1% could not answer.

To the question “Do you believe or not believe that the government promised a two-fold increase in the minimum wage will lead to a significant increase in your personal income?” 12.9% replied they believed, 75% chose “not believe”, 12.1% could not answer.

Electoral intentions of the population in the parliamentary elections

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada had been held in mid-November, out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above –

8.4% would have voted for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna”,

5.8% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,

4.4% – for the party “Opozytsiinyi block”,

3.9% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,

3.5% – for the party “Za jyttia”,

2.7% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

2.6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,

2.4% – for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”,

1.3% – for the party “Khvylia”,

1.0% – for the party “UDAR”,

1.0% – for the party of the Premier Minister Volodymyr Hroisman,

0.8% – for the party “Demokratychnyi aliyans”,

0.7% – for “Partia prostykh liudei”,

For other parties – 5.2% in total,

6% – would have crossed out all the parties, spoilt the ballot,

22.4% – decided not to participate in voting,

27.7% – undecided.

Thus, if those who have not decided whom to vote for yet had not, as usual, come to the elections, about 44% of all voters would have participated, and their votes would have distributed as follows (actually these are the closest indexes to the possible outcomes of the elections if it had been held in mid-November):

19.1% would have voted for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Batkivshchyna”,

13.2% – for the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”,

10.1% – for the party “Opozytsiinyi block”,

9% – for the Radical party of Oleh Liashko,

8.1% – for the party “Za jyttia”,

6.1% – for the party “Hromadianska pozytsia”,

6% – for the party “Obiednannia Samopomich”,

5.5% – for the party “All-Ukrainian union “Svoboda”,

3% – for the party “Khvylia”,

2.4% – for the party “UDAR”,

2.3% – for the party of the Premier Minister Volodymyr Hroisman,

1.9% – for the party “Demokratychnyi aliyans”,

1.6% – for “Party of the people”,

for other parties – 11.8% in total.

The following table shows the current ratings of parties (among those who intends to vote and decided for whom to vote) compared with the ratings as of September 2015, February and March 2016, September 2016 and the results of elections in 2014. Also, for each survey, it gives the percentage of all the citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and older, who at the time of the survey were going to vote and have already decided which party to vote for.

Oct.14

Sep.15

Feb-March.16

Sep.16

Nov.16

% among all citizens aged 18 and above who are going to vote and have already decided whom to vote for

These results were also checked with the method of “secret box” (in addition to the direct questioning, respondent was presented with a list of parties and asked to self-fulfill it and then put in a special box) and showed their stability. The distributions of the answers to the question about the voting asked through the “secret box” are presented in the table below.

The standards of rankings representations in publications described in the article on our website.

The list of the parties itself is a certain hypothesis (in this case the hypothesis of the client), until the election campaign begin, the registration closed and a sortation of the parties positions on the ballot ended. This survey offered a list of 27 political parties. Although now Vitali Klychko and Volodymyr Hroisman associated with the team of the president, given the attempts of these politicians to demonstrate independence and, maybe, not a complete satisfaction of their position in the pro-presidential force, in case of an election they can make their own attempt to run for parliament. Especially considering that the mayor of Kyiv has the experience in “UDAR”, and the Premiere minister in the parties “Sovist Ukrainy” and “Vinnytska ievropeiska strategia”. The latter, by the way, received more support in the last local elections than the party “Block Petra Poroshenka”. That is why it was worthy to assess how big is the potential of such possible participants of the election. On the other hand, the results showed that if we add the results of these two parties to the rating of “BPP”, the overall result qualitatively will remain approximately the same. Of course, different lists of parties can give different results.

Electoral intentions of the population in the voting for the President of Ukraine

If the elections of the President of Ukraine had been held in mid-November, out of all citizens of Ukraine aged 18 and above –

10.1% would have voted for Yulia Tymoshenko,

8.7% – for Petro Poroshenko,

5.5% – for Vadym Rabinovich,

5% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,

4.4% – for Yurii Boiko,

4.4% – for Oleh Liashko,

3.4% – for Andrii Sadovyi,

2.1% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,

1.4% – for Dmytro Yarosh,

0.2% – for Andrii Biletskyi,

For other candidates –1.9% in total,

6.2% – would have crossed out all the candidates, spoilt the ballot,

19,2% – decided not to participate,

27,4% – have not decided yet whom to vote.

Thus, if those who had not decided yet whom to vote for had not come to the elections, 47% of all the voters would have participated and their voices would have distributed as follows:

21.3% - for Yulia Tymoshenko,

18.5% – for Petro Poroshenko,

11.7% – for Vadym Rabinovich,

10.5% – for Anatolii Hrytsenko,

9.4% – for Yurii Boiko,

9.4% – for Oleh Liashko,

7.2% – for Andrii Sadovyi,

4.5% – for Oleh Tiahnybok,

3.1% – for Dmytro Yarosh,

0.4% – for Andrii Biletskyi,

For other candidates – 4% in total.

These results were also checked with the method of “secret box” (and showed their stability). The distributions of the answers to the question about the voting asked through the “secret box” are presented in the table below.

% of all respondents

% of those who are going to vote and decided with the choice

Tymoshenko Yulia

12.0

24.0

Poroshenko Petro

9.0

17.9

Rabinovych Vadym

5.3

10.6

Hrytsenko Anatolii

4.9

9.8

Liashko Oleh

4.8

9.6

Boiko Yurii

4.6

9.1

Sadovyi Andrii

3.4

6.8

Tiahnybok Oleh

2.0

4.1

Yarosh Dmytro

1.3

2.6

Biletskyi Andrii

0.3

0.7

Other

2.4

4.9

Would spoil the ballot

6.3

---

Would not vote

18.5

---

Undecided

25.2

---

Also, respondents were asked, “If Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko entered the second round of the elections, whom would you vote for?”. The answers distributed as follows:

17% would vote for Petro Poroshenko,

23.8% – for Yulia Tymoshenko,

7.5% – would cross out both candidates, spoil the ballot,

35% would not participate,

16.7% were undecided.

Addition

The following are a fragment of a questionnaire and the distribution of respondents' answers to questions published in a press release.

Questions are situated in the order they were presented to the respondents.

If the elections to Verkhovna Rada were held this Sunday, would you come to vote? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD 1 AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following parties participated?

If the elections for the President of Ukraine were held this Sunday, would you come to vote? IF “YES”, PASS THE CARD 1 AND ASK: Whom would you vote for if the following candidates participated?

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Biletskiy Andrii

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.0

Boiko Yurii

4.4

1.4

1.3

10.6

8.0

13.2

Grytsenko Anatolii

5.0

7.5

4.2

4.4

3.6

3.1

Liashko Oleh

4.4

6.1

4.5

1.8

4.4

1.6

Poroshenko Petro

8.7

14.7

9.6

6.6

1.3

3.9

Rabinovych Vadym

5.5

2.3

3.3

11.5

8.8

11.6

Sadovyi Yurii

3.4

7.9

2.3

1.3

1.3

0.0

Tymoshenko Yulia

10.1

12.5

11.5

9.7

7.0

1.6

Tiahnybok Oleh

2.1

4.3

2.3

0.0

0.5

0.8

Yarosh Dmytro

1.4

4.1

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

Other

1.9

1.8

1.1

2.2

3.1

2.3

WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE CANDIDATES/ WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT

6.2

4.3

7.1

4.9

6.5

10.9

WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE

19.2

10.7

20.7

20.4

23.8

32.6

DIFFICULT TO ANSWER/ UNDECIDED

27.4

22.2

31.5

26.1

31.1

17.8

If Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko entered the second round of the elections, whom would you vote for?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

P. Poroshenko

17.0

29.3

18.3

10.9

4.3

6.2

Y. Tymoshenko

23.8

30.7

21.4

22.7

22.5

13.2

WOULD NOT PARTICIPATE

35.0

21.8

30.2

43.7

48.7

60.5

WOULD CROSS OUT ALL THE CANDIDATES/ WOULD SPOIL THE BALLOT

7.5

4.6

9.0

7.0

8.6

10.1

DIFFICULT TO ANSWER

16.7

13.7

21.1

15.7

15.9

10.1

In general, how do you estimate the current socio-economical situation in Ukraine?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Negatively

82.4

79.3

79.0

90.4

86.7

87.7

Neither good nor bad / Moderately

15.5

17.9

19.6

9.1

9.8

10.8

Positively

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.0

1.8

1.5

DIFFICULT TO SAY

1.3

1.9

1.0

0.4

1.8

0.0

In your opinion, what is the main cause of the current socio-economic situation in Ukraine? Please select no more than 2 responses.

Question was asked only to those respondents who answered the previous question with the options "bad" or "neither good nor bad"

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Military actions in the East of Ukraine

40.5

38.8

44.1

42.4

33.0

47.7

Large-scale corruption in high places

65.9

68.5

66.8

64.2

60.8

68.0

Helplessness and incompetence of the current executive

33.6

33.2

28.9

33.6

44.4

28.9

Raid in order to exclude Ukraine as a competitor from the global arena conducted by external forces

5.6

3.8

6.0

9.2

6.5

1.6

Failure of the Verkhovna Rada to adopt the laws the country needs

25.8

29.2

19.6

34.5

27.0

25.0

Actions of the "fifth column" of Russia

2.7

4.3

2.7

1.3

0.8

3.1

Other

1.8

2.9

1.4

0.4

1.0

3.9

DIFFICULT TO SAY

2.0

1.3

3.3

2.2

0.8

0.8

In your opinion, does the President of Ukraine lead the country in the right or in the wrong direction?

100% у стовпчику

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

In the right direction

13.9

18.9

15.1

12.2

7.5

8.5

In the wrong direction

68.5

60.7

61.7

75.1

83.7

81.5

DIFFICULT TO SAY

17.6

20.5

23.2

12.7

8.8

10.0

Do you believe that Petro Poroshenko is able to lead Ukraine out of the crisis?

100% у стовпчику

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Yes

14.1

20.5

15.3

11.0

6.8

6.9

No

69.9

60.0

69.6

74.1

78.2

82.3

DIFFICULT TO SAY

16.0

19.5

15.1

14.9

14.9

10.8

Do you believe that Petro Poroshenko is able to stop the war?

100% у стовпчику

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Yes

16.4

24.9

14.1

10.9

14.5

7.0

No

68.1

58.0

70.2

74.2

69.8

85.2

DIFFICULT TO SAY

15.5

17.1

15.7

14.8

15.7

7.8

Do you support or not support the conduction of early elections to Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Support

38.3

37.0

30.4

53.3

44.8

41.9

Not support

41.0

47.0

46.0

27.5

34.4

31.0

DIFFICULT TO SAY

20.7

16.0

23.7

19.2

20.9

27.1

Do you personally support or not support the idea of some politicians about the necessity of a complete reloading of the government of Ukraine including the President, the Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, courts and law enforcement bodies?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Support

63.0

64.8

51.8

71.7

75.8

60.9

Not support

17.9

16.3

25.1

12.2

12.2

13.3

DIFFICULT TO SAY

19.1

18.9

23.0

16.1

12.0

25.8

In general, how do you estimate what is happening in the country – positively or negatively?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Positively

5.3

4.2

8.1

3.9

4.3

0.8

Negatively

83.5

86.7

75.8

86.5

89.8

87.5

DIFFICULT TO SAY

11.1

9.0

16.1

9.6

5.8

11.7

In your opinion, what is better - to endure all that is happening in the country for the sake of peace, or go out to the streets to protest?

The question was asked only to those respondents who answered “negatively” to the previous question.

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Endure

15.6

19.3

16.4

9.8

14.0

9.2

Go out to the street to protest

55.8

60.9

46.2

60.3

63.2

49.0

DIFFICULT TO SAY

28.6

19.8

37.4

29.9

22.8

41.8

Are you personally ready to take part in the protests against the current government?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Ready

39.6

50.0

33.8

38.0

38.9

30.3

Not ready

46.1

40.8

50.1

41.8

46.4

53.3

DIFFICULT TO SAY

14.3

9.2

16.0

20.2

14.7

16.4

For you personally is visa-free regime with the EU important or not important?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Important

40.1

67.2

36.6

21.7

25.3

17.8

Not important

52.0

28.8

52.1

73.9

65.3

73.6

DIFFICULT TO SAY

7.9

4.0

11.3

4.3

9.4

8.5

Do you believe or do not believe that the government promised a two-fold increase in the minimum wage will lead to a significant increase in your personal income?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Yes, I believe

12.9

14.7

12.8

10.9

11.1

14.6

No, I do not believe

75.0

76.7

70.6

81.7

76.4

75.4

DIFFICULT TO SAY

12.1

8.6

16.6

7.4

12.6

10.0

What is your attitude to the idea of paying for housing services in installments, that was recently voiced by the Prime Minister Volodymyr Hroisman?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Positive

22.8

24.7

24.7

32.0

13.5

16.2

Negative

54.2

57.0

46.4

44.3

65.7

66.2

DIFFICULT TO SAY

23.1

18.3

28.9

23.7

20.8

17.7

Do you agree or not agree with the following statement: Subsidies for the utilities is a redistribution of public funds in favor of the oligarchs?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Agree

65.4

65.2

57.3

75.5

70.9

74.6

Not agree

11.7

8.8

14.3

7.9

15.8

5.4

DIFFICULT TO SAY

22.9

26.0

28.4

16.6

13.3

20.0

Do you agree or not agree with the following statement: Subsidies for the utilities is a significant help from the government to the Ukrainian families?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Agree

44.4

44.6

49.4

43.0

35.6

45.4

Not agree

37.9

36.5

29.1

42.2

52.6

40.0

DIFFICULT TO SAY

17.7

18.9

21.6

14.8

11.8

14.6

Does your household currently receives subsidies for utilities?

100% in a column

Ukraine in general

West

Center

South

East

Donbas

Yes

41.2

50.9

45.5

19.6

32.1

40.6

No

56.2

46.5

51.8

78.2

66.4

53.9

DIFFICULT TO SAY

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.2

1.5

5.5

Questions that were asked through the “secret box”

Would you participate in the voting to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, if the elections were held next Sunday? If “YES”, what would be your choice, if the following parties participated? Mark only ONE answer.

Would you participate in the voting for the President of Ukraine, if the elections were held next Sunday? If “YES”, what would be your choice, if the following candidates participated? Mark only ONE answer.