Friday, July 25, 2008

Why no Obama bounce?

Some people have been expressing concerns that Obama isn't seeing any bounce from his successful world tour. But Nate of 538 has an analysis of how an emphasis on foreign policy could actually produce a short-term drop.

Now suppose this: Obama emphasizes foreign policy. As a result, he cuts his deficit with McCain on that issue from 70-30 to 65-35. But he also increases the percentage of the public that base their decision on foreign policy from 25 percent to 35 percent. (Indeed, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center, attention to Iraq and Afghanistan has increased by about that margin within the past week). ...Now, instead of leading by five points, Obama leads by just two-and-a-half -- even though the strategy succeeded in improving perceptions about his ability to handle foreign policy.

The long-terms are still good.

That is, in the long-run, the public's emphasis
shifts back to domestic policy, which is where Obama wants it. But
among those voters who do want to vote on foreign policy, he has
assuaged some concerns and made some permanent gains. This results in
him leading by 7.5 points rather than five.

Obama strikes me as a long-term thinker. He doesn't sweat the short-term that much because he understands that a seed planted today can bear fruit long after it is planted.