First RedC of 2012….

As most of you will be aware, RedC have published their first poll since last month’s Budget, and it makes somewhat comforting reading for the Government parties, in that they are up from the last RedC, if down from the last General Election. Party standings, along with the IPR seat projections, as follows….

FG 33% – 63 seats

FF 17% – 23 seats

LP 16% – 31 seats

SF 14% – 23 seats

GP 3% – 2 seats

ULA* 2.87% – 5 seats

OTH* 14.13%-19 seats

* I have apportioned the ULA share of OTH based on their share of that vote in the last GE. The poll makes mention of the Socialist Party being 3% in Dublin, which is only what Joe Higgins and Clare Daly got between them last time, but the sample is too low to make any great inference from that.

My initial reaction was very much one of surprise, as I had expected the Government to lose votes following the Budget. It may be, as Richard Collwell (RedC’s MD) suggested that the harsh budget was already ‘priced in’ to the polling figures recorded last month.

Otherwise, it’s all pretty much as you were, except for the Greens, who poll 3% (up from 1.85% in the GE), which would give them 2 seats on my projections (although only marginally in both cases). Given this is the margin of error, it’s too soon to say they are experiencing a recovery, but a couple of more polls saying the same thing and they’ll be – most likely – on the way back into the game.

One aspect of the poll is that it is another mainstream company result that massively contradicts Behaviour & Attitudes, currently the company of choice of the Sunday Times. Their most recent effort (Dec 18th) had FG 30%, LP 11%, FF 20% , SF 21%, GP 3%(up 1%), OTH 15%. Obviously, two polls either side of a Budget by different companies would be expected to be different, but FG 3% and LP 6% lower, FF 3% higher, SF 7% higher …. I don’t think so. As pointed out before, their findings are well out on those of companies with an established track record of accurately predicting GE results, and unless something has happened to the other companies, there’s something wrong somewhere with B&A. No offence intended (and it appears to have caused some in some quarters) but they’ve yet to convince me that they’re in the same league as the big 3 for this sort of poll.

Interestingly, Dublin voters are more likely to pay than those outside the capital (only 7% of Dubs are in the ‘liable but won’t pay’ category). The more working class (and the more likely one is to vote for the left) the liklier one is to be a refusnik, with SF voters the most opposed to paying the charge. Whether this is related to an ideological opposition, or simply that these voters have the least disposable income, is of course a matter of conjecture. This shoudl be good news for SF, as they are better placed to pick up the votes of these people than ULA, who are very heavily based in Dublin (OK and Tipp South). Unsurprisingly, those who are undecided about which party they would vote for are also the group who are most likely to be unsure as to whether they are liable for the tax….bet they vote in X-factor though…!

” (Clarification – It was brought to our attention that we had originally suggested that the Socialist party was on 6% in Dublin within the commentary of this report. Unfortunately this was a typo. The Socialist Party are actually on 3% in Dublin, and 1% nationally) “