With all due respect to Vicki Mowat and the Saskatchewan NDP ‘s seemingly impressive 60-per-cent win in the Saskatoon Fairview byelection, winning a riding your party should have never lost isn’t much of a win.

Until the NDP start winning seats in rural Saskatchewan, it will be hard to see how they can can take over government from the Saskatchewan Party.

That won’t happen in the next byelection, or the even the next byelection after that.

With Bill Boyd’s Sept. 1 retirement, the next Saskatchewan byelection will have to be in Kindersley — a seat the NDP hasn’t held since 1971. It’s safe to say it will remain in Sask. Party hands. It may even be the home of the new premier, should Alanna Koch win the party’s leadership and decide that her husband’s home seat would suit her purposes.

The next byelection after that would most likely be Wall’s home seat of Swift Current. It was briefly held by the NDP’s John Penner and John Wall from 1991 to 1999, but has really also been a Progressive Conservative/Sask. Party stronghold seat since 1975.

These are yellow dog seats for the Sask. Party in which any candidate they run will clobber whomever runs for the NDP.

But if the speculation comes to fruition, the next test to truly see if the winds are changing in Saskatchewan politics will come from Meadow Lake.

With former economy minister Jeremy Harrison abandoning cabinet and now his Sask. Party leadership hopes, the speculation is that he may now resign the provincial seat he has held since 2007 to run in Gerry Ritz’s now vacant Battlefords-Lloydminster seat. (Harrison had also been a federal MP for Meadow Lake, so the transition seems a logical one.)

This would be an excellent measure of the political winds.

Prior to Harrison, the NDP’s Maynard Sonntag held the seat from 1991 to 2007. Prior to that, the seat was held by the PCs’ George McLeod from 1975 to 1991. Before that, it was a Liberal seat for 11 years.

But most importantly, it was one of the very last rural seats held by the NDP.

There’s been huffing and puffing from Saskatchewan New Democrats ranks pointing to recent successes in B.C. and especially Alberta, where right-wing party vote splitting afforded Rachel Notley the opportunity for her first-term government.

But in Saskatchewan, you can’t win government unless you can win in the rurals.

That’s something the NDP didn’t do under Dwain Lingenfelter and Cam Broten. In fact, they really didn’t anywhere, taking just nine urban seats in 2011 and 10 seats in 2016. For a party that was also always guaranteed that many seats in each of Saskatoon and Regina, the demise of that urban base has been demoralizing.

This takes us back to Mowat’s Thursday night win in Saskatoon Fairview — an area of the city that the NDP has held for the past 50 years, except for four and half years when the Progressive Conservatives grabbed it in 1982 and the last six years when it was held by the Sask. Party’s Jennifer Campeau. That city voters predictably voted NDP five months after a budget that slashed services and cut taxes tells us very little.

That said, the NDP’s best percentage vote showing in Saskatoon Fairview since 1999 is certainly moral victory for downtrodden New Democrats who were wondering when the bleeding would stop.

Far too many of the NDP wounds have been self-inflicted — the way it goes in politics when you are on a downhill spiral. The era of Lingenfelter/Broten has been a dark period in the 84-year history of a party most known for its commitment, organization and discipline. Whether it has now has recaptured those old traits is debateable.

The NDP’s provincial council is now seriously considering moving up the party’s own uninspired leadership race (Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon remain the only candidates) from May to possibly ahead of the Sask. Party’s own leadership vote in January.

It’s a move that speaks to the bizarre lack of excitement in NDP leadership or the party itself.

This Week's Flyers

Comments

We encourage all readers to share their views on our articles and blog posts. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. If you encounter a comment that is abusive, click the "X" in the upper right corner of the comment box to report spam or abuse. We are using Facebook commenting. Visit our FAQ page for more information.