Archive for the 'Outlooks' Tag Under 'Lansner On Real Estate' Category

Next year will be better for home buyers – especially for renters trying to purchase a home, the California Association of Realtors chief economist said Tuesday.

Delivering her annual housing forecast, Realtor economist Leslie Appleton-Young predicted that the median price of a California house will rise a modest 5.2 percent to $478,700 in 2015.

Sales are expected to stop falling, and climb 5.8 percent to 402,500 transactions.

Considering that the number able to afford the typical home has dropped to 36 percent of California households this year (and to 20 percent of Orange County households), the slowdown in home-price gains could create opportunities for entry-level buyers.

During his year as National Association of Realtors president, Villa Park broker Gary Thomas became a regular on Capitol Hill, defending mortgage interest tax breaks for homeowners and continued government backing of home loans.

He received VIP seating for President Barack Obama's second inauguration and met with congressional and federal finance leaders. During his term, the housing market recovered, and the size of his trade group rebounded to more than a million members.

During an interview with the Register, however, Thomas said many of the key issues he fought for – government mortgage backing for agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and continuation of the mortgage interest deduction – remain unresolved.

Q: Has there been any decision on what to do with the mortgage interest deduction?

A: No. We're still waiting to see what (Congress is) going to propose on tax reform and what they're going to propose as far as mortgage interest deduction – whether it would be a deduction, or not having second-home deductions, what have you. That's still all up in the air, so we're still waiting to see what comes of that.

While 2014 will be a good year for the economy, the once-rollicking housing market will be more constrained, University of Southern California housing economist and former Obama Administrator insider Raphael Bostic says.

New loan rules and higher interest rates may put a damper on homebuying next year, Bostic said.

In an interview with the Register, the former assistant U.S. secretary for Housing and Urban Development discussed the current market, national housing policies and the future of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Read the full report HERE!

California home prices and sales are expected to continue rising next year, but price gains will be more modest as a more traditional market takes hold, according to the California Association of Realtors' 2014 housing forecast.

The 2014 median house price house is projected to rise to $432,800 statewide, up 6 percent from this year's expected all-year median of $408,600.

By comparison, this year's single-family home median is expected to end the year up 28 percent from 2012 levels, according to the forecast.

Chapman University economists forecast Wednesday that Orange County home prices will rise 6.8 percent in 2013, marking the second consecutive year of rising home values here.

This year's home prices are projected to be up 4.2 percent, according to the 2013 forecast by Chapman's Anderson Center for Economic Research.

The outlook was contained in a report that foresees mild growth in local hiring and the economy, driven by a recovering housing market and high consumer confidence. But a stronger recovery likely will be held back by expected federal tax hikes and budget cuts, according to Chapman University's 2013 economic forecast released Wednesday.

Home sales in California are projected to rise for the third year in a row in 2013, climbing to the highest level in four years, the California Association of Realtors said in a housing market forecast released today.

Meanwhile, prices are expected to hit the highest level in five years after rising for a second year in a row.

“The housing market momentum which began earlier this year will continue into 2013,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, the association's chief economist.

“Pent-up demand from first-time buyers will compete with investors and all-cash offers on lower-priced properties, while multiple offers and aggressive bidding will continue to be the norm in mid- to upper-price-range homes.”

UCLA economists think homebuilding is ready to enjoy a statewide renaissance – with housing units construction more than doubling in two years.

Their latest UCLA/Anderson California forecast calls for 23,500 home permits pulled by the state's developers this year – essentially flat vs. 2011. Next year, homebuilding would grow 44 percent and in '14 jump by an additional 78 percent to 60,200 – highest since 2007. California multifamily construction should by UCLA's math grow 19 percent this year; 29 percent next year; and double for 2014 to 69,100 – highest in more than a decade.

Combined, total building permits are seen growing by 158 in two years.

That expansion translates to a construction job boomlet: 2 percent this year; 0.7 percent next year; and up 1.6 percent in 2014 to 578,000 – highest since 2010.

Fox notes that local inventory of homes for sale is down approximately 35 percent from the peak, "which is going to allow pricing to begin to trickle upwards. However, before significant price increases can occur, inventory must decline some more. Affordability, although better than it has been in a long time, is still pricey compared to many other markets which are recovering more significantly at this time."

Orange county will fare slightly better than the national market, by Veros' forecast. U.S. values will fall 0.26 percent in a year, by Veros' estimates.

“Overall, the gradual recovery in the housing market is forecast to continue from the previous quarter," Fox said. "We are definitely seeing a flattening for the first time in years at a national level instead of overall depreciation, which is a positive sign that the anticipated recovery is upon us."

By this math, Clear Capital found the region's home prices up 1.5% in the June quarter, leaving L.A.-O.C. values up 0.1% for the 12-month period.

Local values are by no means alone in this rebound. National home prices were up 1.7% in the June quarter -- U.S. values are also up 1.7% for the year -- and Clear Capital forecasts another 2.5% gain for the U.S. market through the end of the year.

In the 50 biggest markets, Clear Capital found 43 markets with price gains in the June quarter. Columbus, Ohio, lead the way with a 13% gain in three months. Next came Phoenix (up 8.7%); Seattle (up 8.4%) and San Jose (up 8.1%.) In 2012's second half, Clear Capital sees price gains in 42 of the Top 50 -- with Seattle (up 14.4%) and Phoenix (10.4%) projected to enjoy the biggest appreciation.

The average median price of an existing house is projected to rise 2% in Orange County this year, followed by a 7.1% leap in 2013, Chapman University's Anderson Center for Economic Research forecast Wednesday.

But before you call your agent with “Buy!” orders, be forewarned: That forecast reflects a change in the mix of homes that will sell over the next 18 months rather than a big increase in overall home values, the forecast warned.