Senate gun deal likely to fail

Hours before a vote that will decide the fate of gun control legislation, a deal to pass tougher background checks on many gun sales is on the verge of defeat on the Senate floor.

That deal — assembled by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) — represents gun-control advocates best chance of passing meaningful legislation at this time and faces a vote at 4 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon. Families of the those who were killed in Newtown, Conn. and Aurora, Colo., and at Virginia Tech will be present for the vote, as well as the mom of Gabe Zimmerman, who was killed in the same shooting that seriously injured ex-Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

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Manchin skeptical on gun control votes

This week on Capitol Hill

After lobbying by President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and Giffords, the legislation appears to have fallen short of the 60 votes it needs to be adopted by senators.

If the deal fails as seems almost certain, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) will hold a press conference at 5 p.m. where he is expected to announce he will pull the gun bill from the Senate floor after the amendment process plays out. None of the controversial amendments are expected to pass, according to Democratic and Republican senators and aides. Reid’s anticipated decision to pull the underlying bill leaves open the possibility that it will come up for floor action at a later time. He will be flanked by Newtown families and Connecticut Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D) and Chris Murphy (D).

Manchin and the bill’s supporters would then have more time to try to garner support for a second try.

Two key senators — North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D), and Kelly Ayotte (R) — announced they would oppose the Manchin-Toomey deal on Wednesday morning. Many of their fence-sitting colleagues are likely to follow now that it’s clear the bill will likely fail.

“This conversation should be about what is in people’s minds, not about what is in their hands,” Heitkamp said in a statement. “… in its current form I do not see a path for my support. I’ve thought long and hard about this, I’ve taken the tough meetings, and I’ve heard overwhelmingly from the people of North Dakota; and at the end of the day my duty is to listen to and represent the people of North Dakota.”

At the White House, spokesman Jay Carney refused to “give post-game analysis before the game is over.”

“Everybody in the White House is working on this issue from the president on down,” Carney said during his daily briefing. Later, he added: “Hopefully there’ll be reason to be pleased by the outcome. If that’s not the case, we’ll assess that.”

Manchin privately admitted on Wednesday morning what many on Capitol Hill already believed — that his proposal to expand background checks on firearms won’t pass when the Senate votes this afternoon.

“We will not get the votes today,” Manchin told an NBC reporter, who later posted his comments on Twitter.

Manchin backtracked on that statement when he appeared minutes later on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” saying he still hopes to get the votes, especially Republican support.

“We have over 90 percent of the Senate Democrats that will vote affirmative,” Manchin said.”If we just had 20 percent of our Republican colleagues — that’s not a heavy ask, it’s not a heavy lift, only 20 percent, that’s nine members, nine members — this thing would be home.”

But later on Wednesday morning, it became apparent that those votes — from Democrats and Republicans — weren’t going to materialize.

Manchin’s comments highlight the challenges facing President Barack Obama and Senate Democrats as they move to the most important congressional vote on gun control in years, and one they look likely to lose — what comes next?

And if they cannot defeat the powerful National Rifle Association and gun rights supporters even after December’s tragic shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, when can they win?