Wednesday, October 21, 2009

2010 ZiPS Projections - Cincinnati Reds

With the shackles of a one-dimensional offense led by base-clearing Adam Dunn fallen off, the Reds developed a flexible, aggressive offense, featuring the electric leadoff hitter Willy Taveras at the stop of the runner and even the home-run hitters, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto able to run the bases a bit, especially Phillips. With red lights turning green, the Red offense would Billyball the team to 90 wins when combined with the improved pitching staff. Wizened manager Dusty Baker does his best job yet, integrating rookies with veterans and making sure everyone has their proper playing time.

An upopular 12-year-old boy is chased into an old building by other kids that wanted to beat him up. Inside, the boy finds a magic radio and inside, is a gigantic African-American genie named Kazaam. Kazaam grants the boy wishes, including junk food falling from the sky, until the boy is kidnapped by the owner of a nightclub. Kazaam finds the boy dead, but sacrifices his genie powers to bring the boy back from the dead and everyone lives happily ever after.

Which scenario is more plausible? It’s close, but my money is on Shaquille O’Neal’s 3rd-best movie being closer to a gritty depiction of modern life than the Walt Jocketty-developed dreamscape.

Truth be told, the Reds at least have a good bullpen and some useful starting pitching, even with the true projection for Edinson Volquez being in the neighborhood of “0-0, 0.00” than the projection given below. The Red offense is still a mess and the team didn’t make much of an effort to try new things or answer questions for 2010 outside of “try every player on the roster at shortstop!” after making Plans A through Z at the position a mediocre player that missed the entire 2008 season. There’s a type of team that Dusty Baker can probably manage pretty well. The Reds, with questions and various options all over the place, are pretty much the worst type of team for Baker to have.

I wouldn’t be too worried about Yonder Alonso. He’s just not ready to start 2010 and has very good odds to develop quickly if his wrist regains full strength quickly. As a fake internet doctor with an econ background, I think it’s encouraging that it was a bone that broke rather than a tendon.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.46 ERA and the NL having a 4.41 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information
is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting
the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the
most frequent starting players at each position did in 2007-2009. Excellent is the top
quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on.

Reader Comments and Retorts

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It's not, really. Valaika broke a hand in May and didn't really recover until the end of the year; I expect his bat to show up next year. Zack Cozart (who for some reason doesn't have a projection here) jumped from low-A to AA and held his own. I would think that one or the other will get a shot at the job sometime next year.

You sure about those Brandon Phillips comps? Javier was an awful hitter (OPS+ of 83, 90, 58 ages 26-28). I'd never heard of Crtiz but looked him up and he was awful too (90, 58, 55). Bolling wasn't too bad. Phillips has a lot more power than any of them (thought I'm too lazy to look at context).

I'm also surprised to see that Hernandez still projects as an average C. If his defense is really average, he might not be a bad guy for the Yankees to sign to take 60-80 games (with Posada usually sliding to DH). Depending on how much he wants of course.

EDIT: and on Phillips' comps, how about just calling him 80% of Sandberg or something?

If you do a quick FIP on Cordero of (BB*3-K*2+HR*13)/IP+3.20, you come out with an ERA of 3.43. Is his predicted ERA in some way based on the fact that he has consistently ourperformed his FIPs in the past?

Alonso WILL start 2010, my guess is at AA for about six weeks. He's going to hit in the majors; the main question with this team is where he and Votto will play. There's been some talk about Votto going to left field, and that's probably the best way to go. I like Alonso's defense at 1B; he reacts well going both ways. He reminds me quite a bit of Adrian Gonzalez at the plate, with surprising power to center and left-center.

Frazier was moved off SS, and while he played some 2B this year, he didn't play it especially well, and he wasn't any great shakes in LF last year (although he did have a pile of assists). Again, I think the bat will play in the majors, but I really have no idea where he's going to end up, either.

Francisco isn't a switch-hitter; he bats left all the way. He led the Southern League in errors this year, by a bunch, and there were a LOT of other balls that got by him that he didn't even make the faintest effort to field - when he made a dive for a ball in a game late in the season the Section 210 regulars all sort of looked at each other in shock that he'd actually gotten his uniform dirty. He can be handled with high heat, either up and in or up and away; he just can't lay off those pitches most of the time (although that is one area where he did improve somewhat as the season went on). In 11 years here I don't think I've seen the Mudcats' fan base react so negatively to a guy, and it wasn't just the Section 210 folks, either. Francisco can hit the ball a long way - but he reminds me so much of Jason Stokes as a hitter, even though Stokes batted right and Francisco hits left, that it's not funny. I'm amused that two of his three listed comps are failed Baltimore 3B prospects.

How is his OBP so low? So far, in his 421 ML PA, he's posted a .383 OBP with a great BB % and improving K %. Just wondering how the projection has his OBP so much lower than his career, even though his career has been pretty short so far.

I can't speak for Dan's model, but my guess is that 421 ML plate appearances aren't really that much, and he's a 28-year-old career minor leaguer without much power. A lot of dudes see their BB rates collapse in the majors if they don't prove they can punish a pitch in the zone.