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I’m afraid with domestic sales plateauing/declining along with iPhone5 anticipation, sales could be much lower than expected. OTOH, “staggering” demand abroad very well may offset this. My WAG ~ 29,000,002

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Here a quote from someone at seeking alpha which I think is true. Let’s not forget new markets/carriers.

“I have said this before but the world is bigger than the US, EU and China. I am based In South-Africa where only now the apple product range is beginning to get visible exposure and availability it never had before. If I am not mistaken the same is happening in other corners of the Globe and this slowly but surely unlocking of more markets must contribute to additional sales not reflected upon in most, if any, analysts reports…”

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“Anyone who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new.” Albert Einstein

I suspect that many people are aware that the iPhone 5 is soon to be released & like many of them, I will wait to see just how good it really is before deciding on an upgrade.

Welcome Surfrover!

It’s a long time between now and October. Three months of below average sales? Unless Apple’s other markets (China) continue to grow, sales could be very weak this upcoming quarter.

Not buying it at all. We have global rollouts for a few reasons:

1. Production can’t ramp fast enough to rollout globally on the same date or even close to the same date.

2. When demand starts to sag in early launch countries, demand continues to be strong in later launch countries. Keep in mind that the U.S. essentially has the iPhone on all carriers at this point while other countries are still under penetrated.

I think we will see 28-30MM iPhones sold this quarter. iPad will be 20M+ which will shock and awe Wall Street. AAPL will fly as a result.

I suspect that many people are aware that the iPhone 5 is soon to be released & like many of them, I will wait to see just how good it really is before deciding on an upgrade.

That simply does not apply to the general population. Not everyone pays attention to when the latest iPhone will release.

I’m not so sure, AppleDoc. Normally I would 100% agree with you that the general population pays no attention to what we pay attention to. However, Apple may be the exception.

Apple is big enough and popular enough that even the mainstream press reports on them. Last year Apple missed its earnings for the fist time in forever precisely because people were waiting for the iPhone 5 (which turned out to be the iPhone 4S).

I have no empirical data to confirm my hypothesis, but based on my personal observations, I do believe that a large segment of the population stops buying Apple phones at this time of the year in anticipation of the next model roll out.

I suspect that many people are aware that the iPhone 5 is soon to be released & like many of them, I will wait to see just how good it really is before deciding on an upgrade.

That simply does not apply to the general population. Not everyone pays attention to when the latest iPhone will release.

Prior to 2010, your statement would be true. Now: everyone knows when a new iPhone is coming out.

iPhone shipments will continue to decline heading towards the new iPhone launch. I would expect similar sequential qoq declines as last year.

The only thing that will prevent a complete collapse in iPhone sales this quarter (July - September - assuming the launch is in early October) would be sales to geographies that typically have to wait a long time to get the new iPhone.

I suspect that many people are aware that the iPhone 5 is soon to be released & like many of them, I will wait to see just how good it really is before deciding on an upgrade.

That simply does not apply to the general population. Not everyone pays attention to when the latest iPhone will release.

Prior to 2010, your statement would be true. Now: everyone knows when a new iPhone is coming out.

iPhone shipments will continue to decline heading towards the new iPhone launch. I would expect similar sequential qoq declines as last year.

The only thing that will prevent a complete collapse in iPhone sales this quarter (July - September - assuming the launch is in early October) would be sales to geographies that typically have to wait a long time to get the new iPhone.

I don’t think there are any big geographic areas left for apple to release the iPhone 4S in, only the odd large carrier like China Mobile, japans NTT & tmobile USA, and I think all those will be in the next iPhone launch instead.