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I prefer to allow approximately 25% of the NBA season to play out before publishing my NBA Performance ratings which gives each team a chance to settle into their true performance – that is very similar to how we handle the NFL where our first published ratings follow Week 4 games. The below ratings and analysis will be done every two weeks for the rest of the season.

Here is the first installment of the 2013-2014 NBA Performance Ratings:

Performance Ratings (As of 12/18/13)

Category

Offense

Defense

Total

Wins

Team

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Total

Rank

Indiana

56

14

33

2

89

1

20

2

Minnesota

43

6

48

7

91

2

13

13

Oklahoma City

50

7

49

9

99

4

20

2

Toronto

53

10

46

6

99

4

9

21

San Antonio

73

22

27

1

100

7

20

2

Portland

28

1

72

23

100

7

22

1

Charlotte

66

18

34

3

100

7

12

15

LA Clippers

40

5

62

12

102

8

18

6

Houston

40

5

63

14

103

9

17

7

Denver

39

2

68

19

107

10

14

9

New Orleans

40

5

73

24

113

11

11

18

Atlanta

71

20

44

4

115

12

14

9

Detroit

54

12

63

14

117

13

13

13

Sacramento

52

8

68

19

120

14

7

27

Miami

55

13

67

16

122

16

19

5

Chicago

73

22

49

9

122

16

9

21

Washington

77

25

46

6

123

17

11

18

Golden State

65

17

59

11

124

18

14

9

Memphis

62

15

68

19

130

19

10

20

Phoenix

54

12

80

28

134

20

14

9

Dallas

63

16

75

26

138

21

15

8

New York

70

19

72

23

142

22

8

25

Brooklyn

53

10

91

29

144

23

9

21

Boston

74

23

71

21

145

25

12

15

Orlando

89

28

56

10

145

25

8

25

Cleveland

83

27

64

15

147

26

9

21

LA Lakers

78

26

77

27

155

27

12

15

Philadelphia

92

29

70

20

162

28

7

27

Milwaukee

96

30

75

26

171

29

5

30

Utah

77

25

104

30

181

30

7

27

Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success. One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our NFL ratings that are best when higher.

We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.

Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through yesterday’s games (12/18), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish on:

Bullish (looking for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, Charlotte, New Orleans

Bearish (opposite of Bullish comments above): Boston, Dallas, Phoenix

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Power Ratings (As of 12/18/13)

Team

Home

Road

Indiana

117.5

113.0

Minnesota

115.7

112.7

Oklahoma City

116.2

111.7

Toronto

113.7

111.7

San Antonio

115.6

111.6

Portland

115.6

111.6

Charlotte

113.6

111.6

LA Clippers

115.3

111.3

Houston

114.7

111.2

Denver

113.7

110.7

New Orleans

112.4

109.9

Atlanta

113.1

109.6

Detroit

111.3

109.3

Sacramento

111.0

109.0

Miami

112.7

108.7

Chicago

111.2

108.7

Washington

111.1

108.6

Golden State

111.9

108.4

Memphis

109.7

107.7

Phoenix

110.1

107.1

Dallas

110.6

106.6

New York

108.1

106.1

Brooklyn

107.8

105.8

Boston

108.2

105.7

Orlando

107.7

105.7

Cleveland

108.4

105.4

LA Lakers

106.9

104.4

Philadelphia

105.5

103.5

Milwaukee

104.3

102.3

Utah

103.0

101.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups. For example, according to my ratings above, if Utah played at Indiana I would set the line at Indiana -16.5 with all else being equal such as motivation (divisional contest, either team seeking revenge, on a losing or winning streak), days rest for both teams, injuries, etc… We can use these ratings to handicap the lines Vegas sets, and perhaps find value plays based on variances between suggested lines according to my Power Ratings and available lines each night.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end. The SU projected wins are based on the same statistics as the Performance Ratings but plugged into a tested regression formula weighting each statistic/metric on their true impact on wins:

Win Projection (As of 12/18/13)

Category

SU Wins

ATS Wins

Overall

Team

Home

Road

Home

Road

Projected Wins

Rank

Indiana

20

2

17

2

55.21

3

Minnesota

13

13

14

8

47.29

10

Oklahoma City

20

2

14

8

53.09

5

Toronto

9

21

10

22

43.92

16

San Antonio

20

2

13

14

63.60

1

Portland

22

1

18

1

50.68

6

Charlotte

12

15

16

4

39.67

18

LA Clippers

18

6

16

4

54.38

4

Houston

17

7

14

8

48.88

7

Denver

14

9

12

17

45.79

14

New Orleans

11

18

9

25

45.22

15

Atlanta

14

9

15

6

41.56

17

Detroit

13

13

13

14

47.65

9

Sacramento

7

27

8

27

33.47

22

Miami

19

5

12

17

63.47

2

Chicago

9

21

7

29

31.47

23

Washington

11

18

14

8

39.46

19

Golden State

14

9

11

20

46.84

12

Memphis

10

20

7

29

33.50

21

Phoenix

14

9

17

2

46.40

13

Dallas

15

8

14

8

48.00

8

New York

8

25

9

25

47.13

11

Brooklyn

9

21

11

20

28.70

26

Boston

12

15

15

6

36.07

20

Orlando

8

25

13

14

31.03

24

Cleveland

9

21

10

22

28.68

27

LA Lakers

12

15

14

8

29.49

25

Philadelphia

7

27

10

22

19.79

28

Milwaukee

5

30

8

27

15.02

30

Utah

7

27

12

17

16.87

29

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season. Based on these projections as of 12/18 the playoffs would set up like this:

Additional analysis that can be performed using the last three win columns is seeking out big variances between the rankings of each columns and using that information to help identify potentially over or under valued teams. What do I mean by that exactly?

Take the Atlanta Hawks, currently ranked 9th in the NBA with 14 wins; comparing that to their projected final season wins of 42 wins (which means they would close the season going 28-28) they could be a team to target as underperforming over the last 75% of the regular season. When also adding in the fact Atlanta is currently 6th best in the NBA with 15 ATS wins Vegas will likely be shifting their lines a hair – to check if Vegas is doing that you can use the Power Ratings from the 2nd matrix and compare those to the Vegas numbers.

One other team that stands out some that I wanted to comment on is Toronto – some will wonder how can they rank tied for 3rd in performance yet only have nine wins, good for 21st in the NBA? While it’s true they made a recent big trade the real reason they are not winning as many games as their performance suggests is because they are not rating well in the most critical area to having success – shooting, both offensively and defensively. So while they can perform well in every other area, much like the NFL, if a team moves the ball well between the 20s but continually stalls in the red zone and kicks field goals they will not win as many games as a team that may be less effective and efficient as far as yardage goes, but they score more TDs. Toronto needs to improve their shooting metrics to win more games.

One thing to remember when using these projections is it assumes a team will continue playing at the level it has so far this season (which is the precise reason I prefer to wait till about 25% of the season is played before releasing this information), and it also does not adjust for injuries – whether it be a Derrick Rose type player being lost for the entire season which will likely lead to worse team performance. Remember, on a night to night basis injuries in the NBA are often over-adjusted for; but as big-name players miss extended periods of time it will impact their performance.

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