Dems see path for Deeds in Virginia

With just over two weeks left until Virginia’s gubernatorial election, Democrat Creigh Deeds is left with a narrow path to victory, one that hinges on energizing key demographic groups and the durability of the Old Dominion’s new politics.

Even as Deeds trails Republican Bob McDonnell by eight and nine points in two of the most recent polls, his campaign and other analysts can still envision a comeback made possible in no small part because of the state’s political turn leftward.

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Virginia’s Washington, D.C. suburbs, where one-third of voters reside, have gone from being a battleground region to a Democratic bulwark in recent elections, making it dangerous to write off Deeds just yet.

“The demographic shift of the state combined with what we have done as a party allows us to have air in our lungs,” said Deeds campaign manager Joe Abbey.

Deeds, a state senator, represents the first true test of just how much the tectonic plates of the commonwealth’s political culture have moved.

While it’s true that Democrats have won successive gubernatorial races, hold both Senate seats and a majority of the House delegation, the question that remains unanswered is whether they can prevail in a campaign in which Virginia’s many independent voters have turned against the national Democratic brand and with a nominee who many in the party privately believe has run a mediocre race.

The answer will be revealed on Election Night when the returns come in from northern Virginia, and particularly Fairfax County, the commonwealth’s largest jurisdiction. The Deeds campaign believes it needs to carry the region with at least 55 percent to win the election and at least approach the 60 percent threshold that recent Democratic candidates have captured in populous Fairfax.

As for turnout, the hope is to push the percentage of northern Virginia’s vote from 33 percent of the statewide electorate to above 35 percent.

"He just needs to get as many Democrats out in northern Virginia as possible," said Democratic strategist Kristian Denny Todd, who worked on Sen. Jim Webb's 2006 campaign. But Todd noted Deeds' task is made harder because of the lack of interest in the off-year race—“and the fact that Creigh doesn't excite anyone.”

One Deeds adviser, while noting their slippage in recent Washington Post and Mason Dixon polls, pointed out that they had seen the most fluctuation in the Washington suburbs and expressed hope that the center-left voters who increasingly populate the region would eventually settle on the more socially moderate of the two nominees.