Press Release

Q2 2014: Global house price boom continues, led by Middle East, Europe, and the Pacific

The global house price boom continues, with a new geographical twist. Housing markets surged during the year to Q2 2014 in Dubai, parts of Europe and the Pacific. In contrast, several Asian governments have implemented cooling measures, successfully restraining their housing markets, and the US housing market boom is weakening.

House prices rose in 28 of the 44 world's housing markets which so far published housing statistics, using inflation-adjusted figures. The more upbeat nominal figures, which are more familiar to the public, showed house price rises in 34 countries, and declines in only 10 countries.

Inflation-adjusted figures are used throughout this release.

Momentum: the good news is that there has been no acceleration of the upward momentum. Only 22 housing markets showed stronger upward momentum during the year to Q2 2014 than during the same period last year, while 22 housing markets showed weaker momentum.

By region: Asian governments have slowed the boom, elsewhere it rolls on

Dubai continues to wow the world, with house prices rising by 33.26% during the year to Q2 2014, and 5.47% during the latest quarter. Demand remains strong. Construction activity continues to increase. The economy is growing at a healthy pace. In Israel the average price of owner occupied dwellings rose by 6.06% during the year to Q2 2014.

Pacific housing markets stronger. House prices in Australia's eight major cities rose by 7.21% during the year to Q2 2014, sharply up on the 2.82% increase last year during the same period. The strength of Australia's housing market is driven by record low interest rates and strong demand from foreign homebuyers. In New Zealand, median house prices rose 6.66% during the year to end-Q2 2014, after a 5.11% increase year-on-year (y-o-y) to Q2 2013. Construction activity in both Australia and New Zealand continues to rise.

Five out of the ten strongest housing markets in our global survey were in Europe. In Tallinn, Estonia, best performer in Europe, the average price of dwellings surged by 16.72% during the year to Q2 2014, far higher than the 7.27% growth seen last year. This was fuelled by strong property demand and an improving economy. In Ireland, residential property prices rose by 11.97% during the year to Q2 2014, a remarkable improvement from a y-o-y increase of 0.56% the previous year. The UK also showed a strong turnaround. Nationwide house prices rose by 9.68% y-o-y in Q2 2014, in sharp contrast with an annual decline of 1.24% in the previous year and the biggest increase since Q4 2004. In Turkey, house prices rose by 7.24% during the year to Q2 2014, a slight improvement from a y-o-y rise of 6.99% a year earlier. Likewise, Iceland's house prices also rose strongly by 6.09% during the year to Q2 2014, compared to a meagre growth of 1.47% the previous year.

Other strong European housing markets include Latvia, with house prices rising by 5.21% during the year to Q2 2014, Lithuania (4.28%), Czech Republic (3.95%), Vienna, Austria (3.94%), Netherlands (3.57%), and Poland (3.56%). All, except Austria, showed better performance in Q2 2014 compared to the previous year. All saw positive quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth in Q2 2014.
Modest house price rises were seen in Bulgaria, up 2.31% during the year to Q2 2014, Switzerland (2.3%), and Germany (1.17%). All three saw positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter.

The US housing market is slowing. The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by 4.1% during the year to end-Q2 2014, down from y-o-y price rises of 7.25% in Q1 2014, 9.1% in Q4 2013, 9.31% in Q3, and 7.34% in Q2 and 7.36% in Q1 2013. Likewise, FHFA’s seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index rose by just 3.22% y-o-y in Q2 2014, the lowest annual increase in the past seven quarters.

Canada’s housing prices are rising. House prices in Canada's eleven major cities rose by 2.03% during the year to Q2 2014, higher, despite market cooling measures, than the meagre 0.65% y-o-y rise seen during the same period last year.

Asian housing markets are losing momentum. Only two of the ten Asian markets for which figures are available in Q2 2014 performed better than the previous year, while the remaining eight housing markets lost momentum. In Taiwan, house prices rose by 5.2% during the year to Q2 2014, a sharp slowdown from the y-o-y rise of 14.53% over the same period last year. In Tokyo, Japan, house prices rose by 2.63% y-o-y in Q2 2014, compared to 5.81% the previous year. Likewise, China’s once booming property market is now on a verge of a slump, with the price index of second-hand residential buildings in Beijing rising just 2.31% during the year to Q2 2014, a sharp slowdown from the robust growth of 11.11% over the same period last year. In the Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD rose by 2.31% in Q2 2014 from a year earlier, a significant deceleration from the annual growth of 8.6% during the same period last year.

Likewise, housing markets in Thailand and Indonesia continue to slow. In Thailand, property prices rose by 2.28% during the year to Q2 2014, down from a y-o-y increase of 3.76% the previous year. In Indonesia, residential property prices in the country's 14 largest cities rose by just 0.74% y-o-y in Q2 2014, down from annual increase of 6.06% in the same period last year.

House prices are falling in four places in Asia. Singapore’s house prices plunged by 5.02% during the year to Q2 2014, after an annual drops of 1.68% in Q1 2014 and 0.9% in Q4 2013, and y-o-y rises of 2.01% in Q3 and 2.47% in Q2. Hong Kong's residential property prices dropped 0.86% during the year to Q2 2014, after spectacular annual growth of 13.89% during the year to Q2 2013. In South Korea, house prices fell by 0.37% y-o-y in Q2 2014, an improvement from the annual decline of 2.59% in Q2 2013. In Vietnam, residential property prices dropped 0.03% during the year to Q2 2014, better than the 3.55% y-o-y decline seen from a year earlier.

South Africa's housing market is at a standstill, with the price index for medium-sized apartments falling by 0.02% during the year to Q2 2014, after an annual rise of 0.66% in Q1 2014, and y-o-y declines of 1.3% in Q4 2013 and 2.05% in Q3 2013.

Conclusion: Many housing markets are now considered overvalued. Asian governments in particular are imposing cooling measures to avoid a repeat of the past. However housing markets in much of the rest of the world are rising faster than before.

Mixed signals for U.S. housing market

United States house price rises continue to decelerate. The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by 4.1% during the year to end-Q2 2014, down from y-o-y price rises of 7.25% in Q1 2014, 9.1% in Q4 2013, 9.31% in Q3, and 7.34% in Q2 and 7.36% in Q1 2013.

Despite this almost all 20 major U.S. cities saw strong house price rises, with Las Vegas registering the biggest y-o-y increase of 12.9% in Q2 2014, followed by San Francisco (10.6%), Miami (9.3%), Los Angeles (8.3%), Detroit (8%), San Diego (7.9%), Portland (7%), and Tampa (6.9%).

The national slowdown is confirmed by Federal Housing Finance Agency's seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index, which rose by just 3.22% y-o-y in Q2 2014, the lowest annual increase in the past seven quarters. The index dropped 0.3% q-o-q during the latest quarter.

Yet residential construction remains buoyant, with property transactions rising. New privately-owned housing unit starts surged 21.7% y-o-y during the year to July 2014, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, while housing completions rose by 8% y-o-y.

New housing units authorized rose 7.7% during the year to July 2014. The Midwest saw the biggest increase, with a 17% y-o-y rise in the number of housing units authorized, followed by the South (8.6%), Northeast (5.3%) and the West (0.8%).

New house sales surged 12.3% in July 2014 from the same period last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. About 61% of these transactions were in the South. U.S. home builder sentiment rose in August 2014 to 55, up from 53 in the previous month, according to the National Association of Home Builders. A reading of 50 is the midpoint between positive and negative sentiment.

Cheaper mortgages, especially short-term mortgages, are fuelling demand. The average interest rate for 1-year adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) fell to a record low of 2.39% in July 2014, according to Freddie Mac. The average interest rate for 30-year FRMs is now only 4.13%, down from 4.37% a year earlier.

The U.S. economy grew by an unexpectedly strong 4.2% in the second quarter of 2014, in sharp contrast with a 2.1% annual decline the previous quarter. The U.S. economy is expected to expand by 2% this year and by another 3% in 2015.

Canada's housing market gathering pace

House prices in Canada's eleven major cities rose by 2.03% during the year to Q2 2014, up on 0.65% during the same period last year, despite repeated market cooling measures. On a quarterly basis, house prices increased 1.37% in Q2 2014.

Biggest rises: Calgary saw the highest y-o-y increase of 5.58% in Q2 2014, followed by Hamilton (4.79%), Vancouver (3.68%), and Toronto (3.62%). Edmonton registered a meagre growth of 1.12% over the same period.

Sales of existing homes surged 7.2% during the year to July 2014 to the highest level since March 2010, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rate at 1% since September 2010. “Low mortgage interest rates continue to bolster home sales activity,” said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump. Canada's economy grew by an annualized 3.1% in Q2 2014, the fastest since Q3 2011, and is expected to expand by 2.2% in 2014 and another 2.4% in 2015, according to the Bank of Canada (BoC).

Pacific housing markets stronger

House prices in Australia's eight major cities rose by 7.21% during the year to Q2 2014, a sharp improvement from the annual increase of 2.82% in Q2 2013, and increased 1.28% q-o-q in Q2 2014, the seventh consecutive quarter of gains.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate at a record low of 2.5% in August 2014, after cutting it by 25 basis points in August 2013.

Residential construction is rising. In July 2014, dwelling units approved (seasonally-adjusted) rose by 9.4% from a year earlier, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Australian GDP growth is expected to be 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2015.

New Zealand is the seventh best performer in our global house price survey. Nationwide median house prices rose 6.66% during the year to end-Q2 2014, after a 5.11% y-o-y increase in Q2 2013. Dwelling consents surged to 2,282 units in July 2014, the highest number since April 2008, according to Statistics New Zealand, with the total value of dwelling consents soaring 25.1%.

However, house prices actually dropped 3.23% q-o-q during Q2 2014. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its official cash rate (OCR) four times in the past five months to 3.5% in August 2014, the highest level since January 2009.

Property demand is falling, partly due to the RBNZ’s restrictions on high loan-to-value ratio lending. Total dwellings sold were down 13% y-o-y in July 2014, according to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ). The median number of days to sale eased by two days, to 37 days in July 2014, compared to a year ago.

New Zealand's economy is expected to grow by 3.3% this year, its strongest performance since 2007, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after modest real GDP growth rates of 2.4% in 2013 and 2.6% in 2012.

Asia is rapidly losing momentum

Six of the ten Asian markets saw their house prices rise during the year to Q2 2014. Yet there has been a big change. Only two of the ten Asian markets for which figures are available in Q2 2014 performed better than the previous year while the remaining eight housing markets performed worse, in several cases much worse.

Taiwan's house prices rose by 5.2% during the year to Q2 2014, a sharp slowdown the dramatic price-rise of 14.53% over the same period last year. House prices increased by 1.48% during Q2 2014.

Housing prices in Taipei rose 91.6% between Q4 2008 and the first quarter of 2014. Faced by an out-of-control housing market, in March 2014 the country’s legislature voted to raise the property tax rate for non-owner-occupied residential properties to between 1.5% and 3.6%, from the current tax range of between 1.2% and 2%. This is in addition to the domestic luxury tax scheme since July 2011, where second homes not occupied by the owner and sold within one year of purchase are taxed at 15%, and within two years of purchase at 10%.

The effect has been to dampen the upper end. Housing construction licenses rose 20.5% in July 2014, but only by 4% by value, from a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Interior.

The Taiwanese economy expanded by an annualized 3.74% in Q1 2014, after a growth rate of 3.04% in the previous quarter, according to the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS). Real GDP growth is expected at 3.41% this year, up from 2.1% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2012.

Japan’s property market is also slowing again, after the strong recovery last year. In Tokyo house prices rose by 2.63% y-o-y in Q2 2014, down from 5.81% the previous year. During the latest quarter, house prices dropped 0.35%.

The Japanese economy expanded by 1.5% in 2013, after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2012 and a contraction of 0.45% in 2011. The Japanese economy is expected to expand by 1.4% this year, according to the IMF.

China’s once booming property market is now on a verge of a slump. In Beijing the price index of second-hand residential buildings rose just 2.31% during the year to Q2 2014, a sharp slowdown from robust growth of 11.11% over the same period last year. During the latest quarter house prices in Beijing fell by 1.98%.

The 100 city China Real Estate Index System (CREIS) index registered a monthly drop of 0.8% in July 2014, after month-on-month declines of 0.5% in June 2014 and 0.3% in May 2014.

Housing sales fell by 9.2% in the first half of 2014 from the same period last year, to CNY2.56 trillion (US$412 billion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics. New construction starts by area plunged by 16.4% in the first half of 2014 from the same period last year, to 801.3 million square meters (sq. m.).

China’s economic growth stood at 7.5% in the second quarter, after annual real GDP growth rates of 7.7% in 2012 and 2013, 9.3% in 2011, and 10.5% in 2010.

In the Philippines, the average price of 3-bedroom condominium units in Makati CBD rose by 2.31% in Q2 2014 from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from 8.6% price rises during the same period last year. Housing prices fell 0.66% q-o-q during Q2 2014.

The Philippines exceeded expectations with 7.2% GDP growth during 2013, 0.2% higher than IMF forecasts, despite typhoon Haiyan. The Philippine economy is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, according to the IMF.

In Thailand, housing prices rose by 2.28% during the year to Q2 2014, down from 3.76% the previous year. Housing prices dropped by 0.25% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

In Indonesia, residential prices in the country's 14 largest cities rose by just 0.74% y-o-y in Q2 2014, down from 6.06% in the same period last year. Housing prices increased by 1.36% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

There were residential price falls in four places in Asia:

Singapore. House prices fell by 5.02% during the year to Q2 2014, after an annual drops of 1.68% in Q1 2014 and 0.9% in Q4 2013, and y-o-y rises of 2.01% in Q3 and 2.47% in Q2. House prices fell by 1.21% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

The number of new private residential units sold in Q2 2014 plunged by 41.3% y-o-y to 2,665 units, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. “[T]he outlook for the private residential market will continue to be dismal for the rest of 2014 so long as the cooling measures and the TDSR framework remain in their current form,” according to Savills Singapore.

The Singaporean economy expanded by 3.5% in the first half of 2014. Singapore's economy grew by 4.1% in 2013 and 1.9% in 2012, according to the IMF.

Hong Kong's residential property prices dropped 0.86% during the year to Q2 2014 , due to government cooling measures, in contrast to spectacular growth of 13.89% during the year to Q2 2013. Housing prices increased 1.82% q-o-q during Q2 2014.

Hong Kong's real GDP growth rate stood at just 1.8% in Q2 2014, the lowest since 2012. The economy is expected to expand between 2% and 3% this year, after 2.9% in 2013 and 1.6% in 2012.

Only two Asian housing markets performed better than last year.

In South Korea, house prices fell by 0.37% y-o-y in Q2 2014, after an annual decline of 2.59% during the year to Q2 2013. Housing prices increased 0.15% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

In Vietnam, residential property prices dropped 0.03% during the year to Q2 2014, better than the 3.55% y-o-y decline a year earlier. Housing prices dropped 0.18% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

Dubai is red-hot, Israel remains strong

Dubai remains the star performer in our global house price survey for the sixth consecutive quarter, with house prices rising 33.26% during the year to Q2 2014, and 5.47% during the latest quarter.

"The Dubai real estate market has become the focus of attention for an increasing number of investors from around the world... after the city's winning bid to host World Expo 2020," said Sultan Butti Bin Merjen, the Director General of DLD.

Dubai saw one of the world's worst housing crashes from Q3 2008 to Q3 2011, with house prices plunging by 53%. Then in Q2 2012, Dubai's housing market started to recover. Dubai will limit the sale of off-plan properties, a primary cause of the property slump in 2008.

The UAE's economy is expected to expand by 4.4% this year, after real GDP growth rates of 4.8% in 2013 and 4.4% in 2012, according to the IMF.

In Israel the average price of owner-occupied dwellings rose by 6.06% during the year to Q2 2014, after y-o-y increases of 3% in Q1 2014, 5.38% in Q4 2013, 6.22% in Q3, 6.27% in Q2 and 8.21% in Q1. House prices increased by 1.92% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

The Bank of Israel cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 0.25% in August 2014, amid the Gaza conflict.

Yet demand is falling. New dwellings sold dropped 21.7% to 11,690 units in the first seven months of 2014, from the same period last year, according to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). New dwelling supply rose by 21.6% y-o-y, to 27,236 units.

The oversupply is likely to be temporary. Dwelling starts fell 13.8% to 9,311 units, and completions fell 11.7% to 10,179 units, y-o-y to Q2 2014.

Israel's economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year and 3.4% in 2015, after average growth of 3.3% the past two years.

Some European property markets are booming

Five out of the ten strongest housing markets in our global survey were in Europe. In all, sixteen European markets performed better during the year to Q2 2014 than the previous year, nine less well.

Estonia is the best performer in Europe and the second best housing market in our global survey. In Tallinn, the average price of dwellings surged by 16.72% during the year to Q2 2014, far higher than the 7.27% growth seen last year. House prices increased 0.31% q-o-q during the latest quarter. The number of purchase-sale contracts of real estate rose by 8.6% y-o-y in Q2 2014, with transaction values up 11.15%, according to Statistics Estonia.

Estonia’s real GDP growth stood at 2.2% in Q2 2014 from a year earlier, after an annual decline of 1.4% in Q1 2014. The economy is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, from annual growth rates of 0.8% in 2013, 3.9% in 2012, 9.6% in 2011, and 2.6% in 2010.

Ireland is Europe’s second best housing market, with residential property prices rising by 11.97% during the year to Q2 2014, a remarkable improvement from a y-o-y increase of 0.56% the previous year. House prices rose strongly by 6.6% q-o-q in Q2 2014. The Irish economy is projected to expand by 1.7% this year, after a contraction of 0.3% in 2013 and meagre growth of 0.16% in 2012, according to the IMF.

The UK's property market also boomed. Nationwide house prices rose by 9.68% y-o-y in Q2 2014, in sharp contrast with an annual decline of 1.24% in the previous year and the biggest increase since Q4 2004. House prices rose 3.99% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

The UK economy is projected to expand by 2.9% this year, up from real GDP growth rates of 1.8% in 2013 and 0.25% in 2012.

Turkey is the fifth best performer in our global house price survey. House prices in Turkey rose by 7.24% during the year to Q2 2014, after 6.99% a year earlier. House prices increased 1.66% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

Iceland's house prices rose by 6.09% during the year to Q2 2014, compared to a meagre growth of 1.47% the previous year. House prices increased 1.42% during the latest quarter.
Iceland's economic growth is expected to be 2.7% this year, after 2.9% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2012.

Other strong European housing markets include Latvia, with house prices rising by 5.21% during the year to Q2 2014, Lithuania (4.28%), Czech Republic (3.95%), Vienna, Austria (3.94%), Netherlands (3.57%), and Poland (3.56%).

European housing markets with modest house price rises included Bulgaria, with house prices rising by 2.31% during the year to Q2 2014, Switzerland (2.3%), and Germany (1.17%). All of the three European housing markets saw positive quarterly growth during the latest quarter. However, only Bulgaria performed better in Q2 2014 compared to a year earlier.

Several European housing markets remain weak

Eleven of the 25 European housing markets included in our global survey saw house price falls during the year to Q2 2014.

Ukraine was (not surprisingly) the world's weakest housing market in our survey. In Kiev the average price of new residential properties plummeted by 28.56% y-o-y in Q2 2014, in contrast with annual rises of 5.88% in Q2 2013 and 14.95% in Q2 2012. House prices in the capital plunged 24.37% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

Ukraine’s economy grew by a meagre 0.05% in 2013, after real GDP growth rates of 0.15% in 2012 and 5.2% in 2011, according to the IMF.

Greece improved greatly, though it remains the world’s second weakest housing market in our global survey. Greek house prices fell by 6.51% during the year to Q2 2014, an improvement from last year’s 11.43% drop and the lowest y-o-y decline seen since Q3 2011. However, house prices declined by 2.64% q-o-q in Q2 2014.

The Russian economy is expected to grow by 1.3% this year, after real GDP growth rates of 1.3% in 2013 and 3.4% in 2012.

Other European housing markets which saw modest house price falls included Romania with house prices falling by 4.74% during the year to Q2 2014, Spain (-3.12%), and Croatia (-2.52%). All saw quarterly price declines in Q2 2014, with Romania falling by 3.58%, Spain by 0.78%, and Croatia by 0.07%. Despite this, all showed better performance in Q2 2014 compared to the previous year.

Some European housing markets saw minimal house price falls. These included Slovak Republic, with house prices falling by 1.45% during the year to Q2 2014, Finland(-1.21%), Norway (-0.42%), Belgium (-0.39%), and Portugal (-0.33%). All, except Portugal, showed poorer performance compared to the previous year.

Brazil's housing market continues to slow

Sao Paulo's house prices rose by 5.37% y-o-y in Q2 2014, the slowest growth in the past six years, with a meagre 0.75% rise in the latest quarter.

The economy shrank by 0.6% during the second quarter, following a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter, and is expected to expand by a meagre 0.52% this year. This shows that the FIFA World Cup did not have the positive effect on the economy that officials anticipated.

Propelled by Banco Central interest rate cuts from a high of 26% in 2003, to 7.25% in 2012, house prices in Sao Paulo soared by 113% (inflation-adjusted) from 2007 to 2013, and Rio De Janeiro's by 144%.

However starting in the first half 2013, the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate nine times to 11% in April 2014 to curb inflation. Result: the economy stalled and despite stubbornly high inflation, the central bank decided to hold its rate unchanged on September 3, 2014, injecting US$12 billion into the economy this September.

South Africa's static housing market

South Africa's price index for medium-sized apartments dropped 0.02% during the year to Q2 2014, from an annual rise of 0.66% in Q1 2014, and y-o-y declines of 1.3% in Q4 2013 and 2.05% in Q3 2013. House prices dropped by 0.52% during the latest quarter.

House prices in South Africa declined by 15.5% during the global financial crisis from Q4 2007 to Q2 2009. After a short-lived recovery in 2010, house prices dropped again by 7% from Q1 2011 to Q2 2012. The housing market has seen weak growth since then.

The economy barely avoided its second recession in five years, with an annualized real GDP growth rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2014, after contracting by 0.6% in Q1 2014. The economy grew by 1.9% in 2013 and 2.5% in 2012, according to the IMF.

The central bank’s benchmark repurchase rate stood at 5.75% in September 2014, after it was raised by 25 basis points in January and by another 50 basis points in July 2014 to control inflation.

References:Description:
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