Ongoing litigation strikes concern for disruption of the 2018 primaries

If President Trump is serious about investigating allegations of voter fraud, he should appoint a dispassionate committee trusted by people in both parties. (AP Photo / Eric Gay)

If President Trump is serious about investigating allegations of...

AUSTIN - With two federal courts again blasting Texas for "intentional discrimination" against blacks and Hispanics in drawing political boundaries, concern is mounting that voter-rights litigation could upend the state's 2018 elections calendar.

State officials insisted Friday they expect to stop the court challenges on appeal and reverse Texas' losing streak on the voting-rights lawsuits. Legal experts predicted Texas could end up back under federal supervisions of its election's rules if the appeals fail.

In short, the fight is becoming a political game of chicken, with significant consequences no matter how it turns out.

"In both of the cases where there are new decisions, the courts have ruled that Texas has purposefully maintained 'intentional discrimination' in the way it drew its maps," said Michael Li, an expert on Texas redistricting who is senior counsel with the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University.

"That's an important finding that could result in Texas being placed back under pre-clearance coverage. Based on that, there may be a good chance that could happen."

While other legal experts and political scientists agree, Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton insist that the state will win the cases on appeal - so Texas' voting can proceed uninterrupted through the March primaries.

"These issues (in the congressional redistricting case) have been ruled on previously, and we won at the Supreme Court," explained Abbott, who litigated the case for the state when he was attorney general. "We anticipate winning on appeal."

Thursday's decision by a three-judge panel in San Antonio that nine House districts in Dallas, Nueces, Bell and Tarrant counties were drawn intentionally to dilute the strength of black and Hispanic voters marked the state's fourth court loss on voting rights in nine days.

The San Antonio decision said that, in some cases, the Legislature also went so far as "to ensure Anglo control" of some legislative districts - a legal misstep that would violate federal law.

The victory was short-lived: The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans on Tuesday put on hold the decision, giving the state a legal victory in the long-running case, even as plaintiffs in the case have promised to continue pursuing their challenge. The appeals court is to hear arguments from both sides in December, just three months before Texas' spring primaries are to take place.

'Horribly commonplace'

Translator

To read this article in one of Houston's most-spoken languages, click on the button below.

Earlier rulings questioned the legality of two districts on Texas' congressional map, of a voting law restricting language interpretation access at polls and of a Wednesday decision by a Corpus Christ federal judge invalidated the state's new voter ID law as discriminatory.

In that decision, U.S. District Judge Nelva Gonzales Ramos invalidated the voter ID but went farther, implying that renewed federal supervision of Texas voting laws may be necessary, the process called pre-clearance that Texas has not been under since 2013.

If Texas comes back under federal supervision, it would be the first state to be brought back under federal say-so since a federal court removed the restrictions in an Alabama case.

The prolonged legal battle over the redistricting maps has cost Texas taxpayers upward of $3.9 million, a sum that doesn't include any costs incurred since mid-2014, when the sum was tallied.

"There have been so many rulings of intentional discrimination by Texas Republicans that counting them is trivializing them," said Matt Angle, a veteran Democratic Party political strategist in Texas.

"Rulings by federal courts that Texas Republican leaders have adopted and defended intentionally discriminatory and redistricting laws has become horribly commonplace ... It is a fact established over and over again by federal judges appointed from both parties."

Prolonged litigation

While the Republican leadership has repeatedly denied those accusations, insisting that the state's new voter ID and redistricting maps pass federal muster, they remain hopeful the prolonged litigation that has gone on for six years will not continue until the next redistricting process starts in 2021.

Paxton has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the lower-court decision on Texas' congressional maps. "We are confident that the Supreme Court will allow Texas to continue to use the maps used in the last three election cycles," he said.

Even so, until that appeal is decided, "We don't expect or anticipate any delay in the Texas election schedule," said Marc Rylander, Paxton's communications director.

Li and other legal experts are not so sure.

First, an appeal to the Supreme Court to overturn Thursday's ruling by the three-judge panel will almost certainly not be decided until after the filing period in November and December for House seats is over.

And if appellate court rulings in other cases go against the state, the schedule could be upended by court orders to redraw political boundaries for candidates running in those elections. And any boundary changes to benefit blacks and Hispanics could mean gains for Democrats, who those groups traditionally vote for.

"There's a good chance that, given the way these cases stand with the courts, that the primary election schedule could be affected," Li said.

"If the district maps have to be redrawn, that will have a cascade effect, especially with the state House maps where changing the lines may affect surrounding districts. It's like shifting around in a conference room with too many people ... You may have to put some in another room," he said.

On Friday, lawmakers in the House - as well as political consultants whose candidates are running in the nine contested districts - were huddling to determine worst-case scenarios if the map lines have to be redrawn. They also wondered how new lines, and perhaps new members, might affect the seemingly assured reelection of House Speaker Joe Straus.

Jerry Polinard, a political scientist at the University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley who has studied Texas redistricting for decades, said that since state officials have turned back suggestions to hold a special legislative session to resolve the map issues, revised maps will have to be drawn if the state's appeal fails.

"This is just the gift that keeps on giving, because there are the potential of major consequences on down the road," he said. "Texas has had more voter-rights litigation than other states ... and these cases will be watched closely because among the issues is partisan gerrymandering that's being raised in Republican-controlled states."

'Voter suppression'

At the same time partisanship is targeted in the court challenges, Republicans and Democrats are paying more attention to local non-partisan elections for school boards and municipal offices, which they see as training grounds for future state leaders. Both parties have plans to endorse and support candidates for the first time.

Amid the continuing political squabbles over voting rights and redistricting, Democrats blame the GOP leadership with using redistricting and the new voter ID law to continue "state-sponsored voter suppression" and a return to election discrimination of the 1950s, labels that Republicans reject as inaccurate invective.

"We hope the primaries next spring are not delayed, but already the sign-ups for precinct chairmen are being delayed, and the counties need the district maps by October," said Manny Garcia, deputy executive director of the Texas Democratic Party.

"The state's legal strategy for these discriminatory redistricting and voter ID laws has failed so far in the courts, and we believe it will fail again."

Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa called the ruling "an historic victory for the sacred voting rights of all Texans" and urged state officials to quickly remedy the issues.

"Once again, Texas Republicans didn't just cheat to win a silly game, they used Jim Crow-era tactics to rig our election system," Hinojosa said. "Make no mistake, Republicans have stolen the voice of Texans at the ballot box for years.

Like the state's top GOP leaders, Republican Party of Texas Chairman James Dickey disagrees.

"We oppose any identification of citizens by race, origin or creed and oppose use of any such identification for purposes of creating voting districts," he said. "If lawmakers are forced to redraw these House districts, we ask that they be drawn accordingly."