Liveblog: Apple’s Q1 2013 earnings call on January 23

iPhone 5 demand and the holiday season will surely dominate the earnings call.

Apple plans to announce earnings for the first fiscal quarter of 2013 on January 23, 2013 at 2pm PDT (5pm EDT). The results will be followed by the typical conference call where Apple executives will delve deeper into the results and answer questions from analysts.

The recent speculation about iPhone 5 demand will undoubtedly dominate the analyst Q&A part of the call, and we fully expect Apple's executives to report that the iPhone 5 is selling just fine. But since this is the first fiscal quarter of the year and it encompasses the 2012 holiday season, we expect nearly all of Apple's numbers to look impressive. iPad minis were undoubtedly a hot gift item in addition to the piles of iPod touches, iPhones, (full-size) iPads, and Macs that Apple typically sells during the first quarter. But even the iPad mini wasn't on sale for the full first fiscal quarter, meaning we may only get a taste for what demand is really like for the shrunken-down tablet.

Ars will be doing a liveblog of the earnings call and the fiscal results, so check back on Wednesday to watch and participate in the comments. The earnings call is scheduled to take place on January 23, 2013 at 2pm Pacific Daylight Time (see when the liveblog starts in your own timezone).

73 Reader Comments

I'm looking forward to this one. All the recent media speculation and rumours-reported-as-facts will be either confirmed or denied. Was the stock market being manipulated, or was it just all about investor fears of a slowdown of growth?

Forgive my ignorance, but how are they doing a Q1 earnings call when it's still only January? Shouldn't this be happening at the end of March?

Apples fiscal year does not match calendar years. Fiscal Q1 2013 for apple starts one quarter earlier than the calendar year. Lots of companies do this. Microsofts fiscal year is not a calendar year. I once knew and remembered 5-10 others.

I'm looking forward to this one. All the recent media speculation and rumours-reported-as-facts will be either confirmed or denied. Was the stock market being manipulated, or was it just all about investor fears of a slowdown of growth?

My vote is for manipulation; by spreading sketchy rumors of an Apple sales slump and cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders. Large institutional investors stand to make billions of dollars if Apple had closed at or below $500 by Jan 19th - and guess what, Apple closed at $500. Funny how that worked out so neat and tidy like that.

I'm looking forward to this one. All the recent media speculation and rumours-reported-as-facts will be either confirmed or denied. Was the stock market being manipulated, or was it just all about investor fears of a slowdown of growth?

My vote is for manipulation; by spreading sketchy rumors of an Apple sales slump and cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders. Large institutional investors stand to make billions of dollars if Apple had closed at or below $500 by Jan 19th - and guess what, Apple closed at $500. Funny how that worked out so neat and tidy like that.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooo!They would NEVER do that! *rolls eyes*

My bet is that the numbers turn out fine. All the people who bailed on Apple end up looking like fools, while the people who "knew better" end up making some fat cash off the stock downgrade.

At the end of the day, Apple is still making a tidy profit. The stock market is just people betting on how much profit they did/didn't make. It's kinda like people betting on football games. If a team beats the spread, yay! If they don't.... well, doesn't matter that they still WON, they didn't beat the spread.

Forgive my ignorance, but how are they doing a Q1 earnings call when it's still only January? Shouldn't this be happening at the end of March?

For some reason Apple has a different quarterly schedule.

They just have to do things their own way in everything, apparently.

The Oct-Dec quarter is the most important quarter for Apple because of holiday sales. Which is why i suspect Apple considers it their fiscal Q1. With the growing importance of China and their traditional New Year celebrations in January, I would not be surprised if Apple changes pushes up in the next 2-3 their fiscal Q1 so that it is also calendar Q1.

And as others have stated, lots of other companies have fiscal years that do not follow the calendar year.

Forgive my ignorance, but how are they doing a Q1 earnings call when it's still only January? Shouldn't this be happening at the end of March?

Apples fiscal year does not match calendar years. Fiscal Q1 2013 for apple starts one quarter earlier than the calendar year. Lots of companies do this. Microsofts fiscal year is not a calendar year. I once knew and remembered 5-10 others.

Actually using the calendar year for the fiscal year is probably the exception, for one very simple reason: By the end of the fiscal year, the accounting department is working lots of overtime. If you align the fiscal year with the calendar year, that time is between Christmas and New Year's - which is stupid for so many reasons. Not only are you forcing your accountants to work all through Christmas, they will be disturbing everyone else by asking urgent questions during the Christmas break. Much better to have that around September-October. Just closing the books on Q1 during Christmas is bad enough.

Forgive my ignorance, but how are they doing a Q1 earnings call when it's still only January? Shouldn't this be happening at the end of March?

For some reason Apple has a different quarterly schedule.

They just have to do things their own way in everything, apparently.

I'm astounded by the number of people who have no idea what the difference is in the FISCAL year and the CALENDAR year. The CY runs 1 January to 31 December, while the FY typically runs 1 October to 30 September. Lots of US-based companies make this distinction, probably in no small part because the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT budget revolves around this October-September FY.

I dislike Ars covering earnings calls. I don't care which company is up for consideration. This information is very much a distraction. I go to financial websites when I desire coverage on this information.

Well, there is an easy solution to that. The first step is to not click on the article. There is no second step.

Forgive my ignorance, but how are they doing a Q1 earnings call when it's still only January? Shouldn't this be happening at the end of March?

For some reason Apple has a different quarterly schedule.

They just have to do things their own way in everything, apparently.

False. It is not even strange that any company's fiscal year does not align with the calendar year. Many Japanese companies, for example, has their FY ending 31 March of each year, guess the Japanese just like to do things differently, eh?

Seriously tho, the reason why some companies has chosen the same FY period as Apple is because in September (the FY end date), the sales (and subsequently number of transactions) are usually lower than in other quarters , and thus, it is easier to close books, perform inventory counts, and have Financial Statement audited during that period.

I'm looking forward to this one. All the recent media speculation and rumours-reported-as-facts will be either confirmed or denied. Was the stock market being manipulated, or was it just all about investor fears of a slowdown of growth?

My vote is for manipulation; by spreading sketchy rumors of an Apple sales slump and cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders. Large institutional investors stand to make billions of dollars if Apple had closed at or below $500 by Jan 19th - and guess what, Apple closed at $500. Funny how that worked out so neat and tidy like that.

Right, it had nothing to do with that day being an Options Expiry day with an average strike of $500, a figure Apple stock has been heading to for weeks, if not months. The process of equity prices and option strike prices converging is down to Options pinning.

But anyway, no it definitely wasn't that, as that's far too mundane it was definitely a conspiracy. Although now it's passed, you can remove your tin-foil hate.

I dislike Ars covering earnings calls. I don't care which company is up for consideration. This information is very much a distraction. I go to financial websites when I desire coverage on this information.

You clicked the link of something you didn;t want to see, then proceeded to create a new account to tell us that. Cool story.

Absolutely getting hammered after hours. Look, I don't like Apple, but to drop that much is just asinine and shows that the market is over-reactionary at best. Netflix makes 8 Mil profit and goes up 25% after hours.

Apple down 32.77 currently. I guess a miss is a miss even when you make 13 billion in profit.

Absolutely getting hammered after hours. Look, I don't like Apple, but to drop that much is just asinine and shows that the market is over-reactionary at best. Netflix makes 8 Mil profit and goes up 25% after hours.

Apple down 32.77 currently. I guess a miss is a miss even when you make 13 billion in profit.

I think the numbers vs. 2012 Q1 are worrying. Add to that the executive team shakeup, and Wall St. is jittery about Tim Cook as CEO.I'm a small time shareholder (under 10 shares) and I'm more than a little concerned. In the meantime, here are Ars' graphs from their liveblog. Thanks Jacqui & Casey, you both rock.

Absolutely getting hammered after hours. Look, I don't like Apple, but to drop that much is just asinine and shows that the market is over-reactionary at best. Netflix makes 8 Mil profit and goes up 25% after hours.

Apple down 32.77 currently. I guess a miss is a miss even when you make 13 billion in profit.

You do realise what the market is based on, right?It looks at the future.

The massive drop in margins indicates that the future is not set in stone, as well as the conservative rumoured product pipelines, and the lack of concrete guaranteed growth.

Apple is priced on the market assuming a certain level of growth going forwards. If the earnings indicate there are reasons to be concerned about that growth, share prices drop. It's not over reacting when it was settled around $500 and waiting for the news, good or bad. It wasn't priced for a somewhat negative outlook, or a positive one. Then somewhat negative news came, so it dropped, like it should do.

Also that margin drop is pretty massive, and if they go with "less expensive" iPhones with lower margins than current products, it could look even worse going forwards.A lot of the rumours about Apple indicate they are starting to follow the crowd. Making small iterative changes to products, doing what everyone else is doing with the iPad mini and less expensive phones, increasing the screen size of the iPhone as their "innovation". Rolling out features that are on some products to more in their lineup as their "improvements", rather than adding new things or "inventing" new products like Phablets.

I think it's funny that they mentioned that the iPod has 70% market share of MP3 players... it's like saying that the GameCube had 70% market share of those mini-CDs, or that the 3DS has 70% market share of flash storage cartridges with a built-in notch on the side... does it really need stating? The dedicated MP3 player market is essentially dead except the iPod, and it has been ruled by the iPod for over a decade.

I'm looking forward to this one. All the recent media speculation and rumours-reported-as-facts will be either confirmed or denied. Was the stock market being manipulated, or was it just all about investor fears of a slowdown of growth?

My vote is for manipulation; by spreading sketchy rumors of an Apple sales slump and cuts in iPhone 5 parts orders. Large institutional investors stand to make billions of dollars if Apple had closed at or below $500 by Jan 19th - and guess what, Apple closed at $500. Funny how that worked out so neat and tidy like that.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooo!They would NEVER do that! *rolls eyes*

My bet is that the numbers turn out fine. All the people who bailed on Apple end up looking like fools, while the people who "knew better" end up making some fat cash off the stock downgrade.

At the end of the day, Apple is still making a tidy profit. The stock market is just people betting on how much profit they did/didn't make. It's kinda like people betting on football games. If a team beats the spread, yay! If they don't.... well, doesn't matter that they still WON, they didn't beat the spread.

Apparently the $500 is probably because options expire on the third Friday of the month, which would have been last Friday, when Apple was around $500, and settle at the closest round number, which was $500, hence the $500 valuation.It also happened in September, but no one cared because the stock was so high.

So in a way it is due to banks/etc, but not direct manipulation, more just chance. The neat and tidy comes from the fact options on something like Apple would have a nice round number due to the high price of an individual share. Something like Intel at $22 or so would probably be priced in smaller increments and look more "natural".

It would be interesting to see geographical breakdowns of sales to see growth due to expansion of offerings, and growth in existing markets.E.g. more iPhones and iPads have been sold... but they also started to sell in China, so that's going to be a lot of the growth, while more mature markets like the US may see a slowdown.

Absolutely getting hammered after hours. Look, I don't like Apple, but to drop that much is just asinine and shows that the market is over-reactionary at best. Netflix makes 8 Mil profit and goes up 25% after hours.

Apple down 32.77 currently. I guess a miss is a miss even when you make 13 billion in profit.

The lower margin, which has long been Apple’s profitability rock, is likely what is spooking share holders. I do not hold but it would likely concern me a bit, long term.

As for the $500, those large chunk of outstanding options that recently expired: Options of that variety create what is called a “floor”, a price which the market is very unlikely to drop below before they expire (because as long as you can buy the stock for $499, you can turn a profit by selling at the $500 guaranteed price that those options provide ). There could indeed have been attempts by those underwriting those options (but not actually owning all the shares to cover them) to spread FUD to try keep the stock price down BUT coming to rest of that price is also what would happen if the market had been headed further below $500 all by itself.

EDIT: Of course now that floor is gone so the shares are in panic mode free-fall…

EDIT2: Incidentally Q1 profits were slightly above analyst projections. So it almost certainly is the lower profit margins that are triggering this panic.

EDIT3: Oh, and Netflix was expected to report a LOSS. So that goes a long way to explain their movement up.