Ladbrokes’ Head of Politics Trading, Matthew Shaddick, provides the inside take on the latest Politics news.

A by-election in Portsmouth South would be an intriguing contest. There’s no certainty there will be one despite the latest news about sitting Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock. Sky News are currently reporting that the Liberal Democrats are planning to expel him from the party. I would say it is odds-against that he’ll resign as an MP, but no harm in being prepared. Here is the result from 2010, courtesy of UK Polling Report

Some people are speculating that, even if Hancock felt obliged to resign, he might still stand in the by-election as an Independent. I think I’d make him about 50/1 if he did.

I think it’s extremely likely that the Liberal Democrat and Conservative votes would both fall as a result of the recent government decisions about the dockyards. It’s a certainty that UKIP will do well following their extremely good showing in last month’s council elections in the city. That might even present an opportunity for Labour, although based on their woeful efforts in Newark, I wouldn’t be in a rush to back them.

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Matthew Shaddick has been Head of Poliical Betting at Ladbrokes since 2008. He's a writer and odds-maker with particular expertise in UK and US elections.
Also known to dabble in music, literary and other out of the way betting markets. Sometimes issues tips on horse racing and football, which are best ignored.

Ladbrokes Betting & Gaming Ltd. is licensed (licence no. 1611) and regulated by the British Gambling Commission for persons gambling in Great Britain and LC International Limited, Suites 6-8, 5th Floor, Europort, Gibraltar, is licensed (RGL Nos. 010, 012) by the Government of Gibraltar and regulated by the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner.