Turning Up the Heat

It's hot outside, but do Americans think it's getting hotter? Do
they care enough to do something about it? President Bush seems to
think not. His refusal to sign the Kyoto accord this spring set off
a storm of worldwide protest. Americans have not yet reacted as
sharply as Europeans â€” not surprising given Americans'
conflicting sentiments about the country's relative responsibility
for the threat of global warming.

In fact, public opinion in the United States has been remarkably
stable on the issue. The percentage of Americans expressing concern
in a 1989 Gallup poll is locked in a dead heat with the figure
today: In each poll, 63 percent of respondents said they worried a
fair amount or great deal about Earth's impending warmth. According
to a March 2001 Time/CNN poll, most Americans, 67 percent, think
the President should develop a plan to reduce the emission of gas
that may contribute to global warming. Perhaps July temperatures
will cause more Americans to put the heat on the administration,
though a shift in views seems likely.

It's Too Darn Hot

Most Americans are aware of global warming and believe in the
generally accepted scientific causes of global warming, but
significantly fewer are concerned about the impact global warming
might have. In an August 2000 Harris poll, Americans were asked
about their beliefs concerning global warming and specifically
about the relationship between temperature changes and forest
fires. Many more believed in global warming in general than as a
cause of fires. (Only 35 percent attributed last summer's fires to
temperature trends.)

Have you ever seen, heard or read about the theory of global
warming â€” that average temperatures are rising slowly and
will continue to rise mainly because of the burning of coal, oil,
and other fuels?

Do you believe the theory that increased carbon dioxide and
other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked, lead
to global warming and an increase in average temperatures?

RESPONSE

2000

1997

Believe

72%

67%

Do not believe

20%

21%

Not sure/refused

9%

12%

Do you think that the possibility of global warming should be
treated as a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or
not a serious problem?

RESPONSE

2000

1997

Very serious

46%

47%

Somewhat serious

39%

40%

Not a serious problem

13%

11%

Not sure/refused

1%

2%

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100
due to rounding.

Warming Gets Worse

Less than a year after the Harris poll, American concern about
global warming has grown. A March 2001 Time/CNN poll conducted by
Yankelovich Partners/Harris focused on American concerns about
global warming and their willingness to take action. The poll
addressed three major areas: concern over global warming, desire
for government to take action, and willingness to make personal
sacrifices to address the problem.

Overall, Americans are surprisingly willing to make personal
sacrifices to combat global warming, though they are somewhat less
inclined to pay higher gas prices now than they were in 1990, when
gas prices were much lower. In 1990, a majority (59 percent) were
willing to accept a 25 cent per gallon price increase, compared
with 48 percent today.

Americans express the contradictory idea that while business
interests have a harmful effect on the environment, environmental
regulation should not have a harmful effect on business. At the
same time, they want President Bush to override business sector
objections to governmental action; 67 percent think Bush
â€œshould develop a plan to reduce the emission of gases that
may contribute to global warming.â€?

WHAT AMERICANS THINK:

Is global warming a very serious problem, a fairly serious
problem, not a very serious problem, or not at all serious?

PERCENT RESPONDING

Very serious

43%

Fairly serious

32%

Not very serious

14%

Not at all serious

7%

When it comes to protecting the environment does the government
give in to business interests too often?

PERCENT RESPONDING

Yes

69%

No

26%

WHAT AMERICANS WILL DO:

Would you be willing to pay an extra 25 cents per gallon of gas
to reduce pollution and global warming?

PERCENT RESPONDING

Yes

48%

No

49%

Would you personally be willing to support tough government
actions to help reduce global warming even if each of the following
happened as a result?

YES

NO

Your utility bills went up

47%

49%

Unemployment increased

38%

55%

A mild increase in inflation

54%

39%

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100
since not all answers shown.

Kyoto or Not

In a December 2000 poll conducted by Zogby International, global
warming questions were framed around two aspects of the issue: the
extent to which America should be held to higher standards than
other countries and the relative costs to American industry. The
questions made no mention of potential environmental or diplomatic
benefits of the pact. This may account for the comparatively low
level of support shown for Kyoto in this poll relative to other
polls on the issue.

In an earlier October 2000 survey, Zogby asked Americans the
following question: â€œWhich candidate is most likely to get
your support with regard to the global warming treaty? Bush-Cheney
oppose the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty, because it places tough
standards on U.S. industries and little or no restrictions on
industries in developing nations, that would cost Americans jobs
and raise costs to consumers. Gore-Lieberman support the treaty,
which requires American businesses to meet environmental and human
rights standards that may or may not be imposed on industries in
developing nations.â€? The winner? Bush-Cheney: 46 percent to
Gore-Lieberman, 42 percent.

Which of the following three statements reflects your
values?

Statement A: The U.S. should support the Kyoto
Protocol, which requires American businesses to have their
industries conform to higher standards than industries in
developing nations.

Statement B: The U.S. should oppose the treaty because
it places tough standards on U.S. industries with little or no
restrictions on industries in developing nations that would cost
American jobs and raise costs to consumers.

VARIABLE

Total

Male

Female

White

Hispanic

African
American

Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Catholic

Protestant

Born Again

Agree with A

46%

40%

51%

46%

56%

51%

70%

52%

33%

50%

41%

40%

Agree with B

42%

52%

34%

43%

40%

33%

21%

36%

56%

39%

45%

48%

Note: Numbers may not sum to 100
because other responses were allowed.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Americans are clearly concerned about global warming, but their
understanding of the potential costs and benefits of combating the
issue seem shaky at best.

Despite Americans' desire for global cooperation, they are wary
of global commitment. Americans exhibit little concern about the
impact of environmental regulation on developing countries or other
foreign nations.

Though Americans perceive global warming in vague terms, they
are quite specific about the personal sacrifices they are willing
to make to lessen the threat, and are more generous with regard to
potential ways for government and business to address the
issue.

WHAT THIS MEANS TO YOU

Consumers want to know that American companies embrace policies
that exhibit responsibility towards global warming. In the wake of
the failed Kyoto Protocol and given the current administration's
priorities, Americans might respond particularly well to
compensatory initiatives from the private sector.

At the same time, consumers need to be assured that their
products and services will remain affordable.

Marketing messages that build on corporate environmental policy
or products and services with environmental benefits should
emphasize three things: