OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is "planning on pushing through a (electoral reform) plan that will benefit his Liberal party, making it virtually impossible to remove them from power." — Scott Reid, Conservative MP, in fundraising appeal to party members.

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The Liberals promised during last year's election campaign to introduce a series of democratic reforms, including changing the way that Canadians elect their federal representatives.

Trudeau has said that the 2015 election would be the last time Canadians would vote in a "first-past-the-post" system, where the candidate with the most votes wins a seat in the House of Commons.

Neither Trudeau nor the Liberal government have ever specified how they would want a preferential ballot system to work. (The Canadian Press)

The new government has said an all-party committee would study the issue and consult with Canadians, but it has refused to commit to a referendum.

Are the Liberals indeed planning to make it "virtually impossible" to remove them from power?

Spoiler alert: The Canadian Press Baloney Meter is a dispassionate examination of political statements culminating in a ranking of accuracy on a scale of "no baloney" to "full of baloney" (complete methodology below).

This one earns a rating of "a lot of baloney" — the statement is mostly inaccurate but contains elements of truth. Here's why.

THE FACTS

In the past, Trudeau has expressed his support for a preferential ballot system, where voters in a particular riding rank the candidates in their order of preference.

In that system, if nobody has an absolute majority after the first count, the candidate with the least number of votes is eliminated. The second-place choices on the ballots cast for that unsuccessful candidate are redistributed to the other candidates. This process goes on until one person has a majority.

The government has said that other forms of voting would be studied as well, including proportional representation.

"The government has no intention of prejudicing that debate and we have every interest in ensuring that all voices and perspectives are heard," said Paul Duchesne, spokesman for Democratic Institutions Minister Maryam Monsef.

WHAT THE EXPERTS SAY:

Reid said that if the Liberals, who will likely have a majority on the all-party committee, go with a "full" preferential ballot system, the Liberals would be assured victory.

A full preferential ballot means that voters must rank all of the candidates, otherwise their ballot is considered spoiled. Such a system exists in certain Australian jurisdictions.

A Nanos Research survey conducted right before the October 2015 vote showed 46 per cent of Conservative respondents said they had no second choice for support. As a result, Reid argues, Conservative voters would be most likely to have their ballots declared invalid in a full preferential system.

Tory MP Scott Reid said if the Liberals go with a "full" preferential ballot system, they would be assured victory. (The Canadian Press)

Over time, those voters would learn how to properly cast their ballots, but Reid says that wouldn't happen immediately.

"If (Trudeau) wants to design a system that guarantees that he'll win the next election, he'll put in a full preferential system."

Former Harper adviser and University of Calgary political science professor Tom Flanagan said it's unlikely that the government would go for a full preferential ballot system.

Flanagan said he does believe, however, that in the short term, the Liberals would have the advantage in a flexible preferential ballot system, because polls have shown supporters of other parties (including the Conservatives) would be more likely to rank the Liberals as their second choice.

Still, Flanagan notes that even when governments try to shape a voting system to benefit their party, it doesn't always work.

"I would be surprised if Canada went down the path of full preferential voting."

He pointed to the 1952 British Columbia election, when the Liberals and Conservatives ushered in a preferential ballot to try and keep out the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation, or CCF.

In that case, the new British Columbia Social Credit League wound up forming a minority government when they became the second preference of many voters.

Flanagan also argues that parties that win with a big majority eventually have trouble satisfying all of the different groups of voters in the tent.

"Things would happen that would eat into the big Liberal majority," said Flanagan, author of the recent book "Winning Power."

In Australia, where a form of preferential voting has been the norm for nearly a century, power now regularly changes hands between parties on either side of the political spectrum, he added.

Antony Green, an Australian political science professor and elections expert, said full preferential voting has led the parties to hand out "How to Vote" cards outside polling stations to help influence the final result.

"I would be surprised if Canada went down the path of full preferential voting," Green said in an email to The Canadian Press.

"It is a big step to take, going from a system of a single X to one where all squares must be numbered. It would also be complex, given campaigning outside polling places is not allowed in Canada."

THE VERDICT:

The central flaw with the Conservative statement is that neither Trudeau nor the Liberal government have ever specified how they would want a preferential ballot system to work, much less a full preferential ballot.

The Conservative statement is also based on an assumption that the all-party committee will recommend a full preferential ballot over any other kind of system, including an optional preferential ballot.

Assuming for the moment that the committee went with an optional preferential ballot, the Liberals might well have the upper hand in the next election, based on recent polls. Using 2015 data, the Liberals would theoretically gain substantially more seats in a preferential system, said Eric Grenier, the polling analyst behind the website ThreeHundredEight.com.

But there are many variables to consider before the next election, including who leads the Conservatives and how that person will position the party.

It is not inconceivable that the Conservatives could change the way they approach voters and widen their overall appeal, so that they became the second choice of more Canadians.

The Conservative claim perhaps should have read that Trudeau "might" push through a plan that would benefit the Liberals, making it "extremely difficult" to remove them from power "in the next election."

As it stands, however, the statement contains "a lot of baloney."

METHODOLOGY

The Baloney Meter is a project of The Canadian Press that examines the level of accuracy in statements made by politicians. Each claim is researched and assigned a rating based on the following scale:

No baloney — the statement is completely accurate

A little baloney — the statement is mostly accurate but more information is required

Some baloney — the statement is partly accurate but important details are missing

A lot of baloney — the statement is mostly inaccurate but contains elements of truth

Full of baloney — the statement is completely inaccurate

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Rona Ambrose, Interim Conservative Leader

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Interim Conservative Party leader and Leader of the Opposition Rona Ambrose is shown during an interview at Stornoway, the official residence of the Leader of the Opposition, in Ottawa.

Leader of the Opposition Rona Ambrose challenges Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during question period in the House of Commons.

Opposition Leader Rona Ambrose kicks off question period in the House.

Ambrose receives applause during question period in the House.

Interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose addresses the Conservative caucus for the first time on Parliament Hill.

Ambrose is photographed in a Toronto hotel shortly after winning the interim Tory leadership.

Ambrose asks a question during question period.

Rona Ambrose smiles as she is introduced as the interim-leader of the Conservative party following a caucus meeting Thursday November 5, 2015 in Ottawa.

UP NEXT: Stephen Harper's Legacy

The Angus Reid Institute polled 1,412 Canadians between Oct. 26 and 28 on the legacy of outgoing prime minister Stephen Harper. The poll had a margin of error of 2.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Respondents were given a list of actions taken by Harper's government between 2006 and 2015, and asked to choose its biggest accomplishments and failures. A detailed list of actions can be found online.
Here are the results...

Harper's Notable Achievements
NOTE: The second-most popular choice was "none of these."

One in three — 36 per cent — chose this as the Harper government's top achievement.
(Harper stands in front of TVs displaying a 5% GST during a campaign stop in 2005).

Almost one-quarter — or 24 per cent — highlighted this action as a key achievement.
(Harper poses with then-finance minister Joe Oliver as he arrives to table the 2015 federal budget).

13 per cent chose this action as a notable achievement.
(Harper gives then-Assembly of First Nations chief Phil Fontaine a standing ovation as he responds to the official apology for residential school abuses in 2008).

12 per cent chose this action as a key achievement.
(Harper greets European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso in 2013).

Nine (9) per cent chose this action as a key achievement.
(Harper drives an ATV across the tundra on Baffin Island, near York Sound, Nunavut).

UP NEXT: Harper's Notable Failures

27 per cent chose this action as the Harper government's most notable failure.
(A Canada goose stands on railway tracks as a plant operates in the background in Hamilton, Ont.)

26 per cent of respondents said this action was a failure.
(A protester in a Grim Reaper costume protests cuts to science policies during a 2012 rally on Parliament Hill).

20 per cent chose this action as a key failure.
(A protester demonstrates against C-51 at a March, 2015 rally in Montreal.)

16 per cent said the combat mission against ISIS was a failure, while 14 per cent said the same of the mission in Afghanistan.
(Harper and then-defence minister Peter MacKay look out from a bunker at an operating base in the district of Sperwan Ghar, Afghanistan in 2011.)

13 per cent chose this as a key failure.
(Harper holds up a pile of money during a 2015 campaign event).

UP NEXT: Defeated Tory Cabinet Ministers

Though Stephen Harper was re-elected in his Calgary riding in the 2015 federal election, many members of his cabinet went down in defeat.
Here are some key figures from Harper's inner circle who will not be returning to Ottawa...

Cabinet position: Minister of state for multiculturalism
Riding: Edmonton—Sherwood Park
First elected: 2008
Uppal also previously served as minister of state for democratic reform.

Cabinet position: Minister of state for science and technology
Riding: London West
First elected: 2008

Cabinet position: Chief government whip
Riding: Vancouver Island North
First elected: 2008 (though he also served as an MP from 1993 to 2006).
Duncan previously served as minister of aboriginal affairs.

UP NEXT: Defeated NDP incumbents

In the 2015 federal election, Thomas Mulcair's New Democrats fell from 95 seats to 44. And several high-profile incumbents from across the country were defeated, usually to Liberal candidates.
Here are a few key names that will not be returning to Ottawa...

First elected: 2006
Riding: Ottawa Centre
Shadow cabinet role: Foreign affairs
Dewar also ran for the leadership of the party in 2012.

First elected: 1997
Riding: Sackville—Eastern Shore (N.S.)
Shadow cabinet role: Veterans affairs
Stoffer was named Maclean's magazines Parliamentarian of the year in 2013 and frequently won the most congenial MP award.

First elected: 2008
Riding: St. John's East
Shadow cabinet role: National defence
Harris was also the longtime leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador New Democratic Party.

First elected: 2011 (though she served from 2004-2006 as a Liberal MP)
Riding: Gatineau
Shadow cabinet role: Justice

First elected: 2011
Riding: Halifax Atlantic
Shadow cabinet role: Fisheries, deputy employment insurance
Chisholm served as leader of the Nova Scotia New Democratic Party and ran for the federal leadership in 2012.