Demystifying the Science and Art of Political Polling - By Mark Blumenthal

February 08, 2006

Pew Research Center: No Bounce

Another all too busy day at MP world headquarters leaves me just enough time to pass along links to the latest survey from the Pew Research Center (report, topline questionnaire, complete printable PDF, conducted Feb. 1-5, n=1,502 adults). The new survey covers a wide variety of topics, including two we have focused on lately. Specifically, Pew sees "no bounce" in the Bush approval ratings since his State of the Union speech last week and evidence of an increase in attention paid to the domestic wiretap issue.

Here is the summary of the recent trend in the Bush approval rating:

President Bush's approval rating has held fairly steady over the past month. The current survey, conducted over the five nights immediately following his State of the Union address, finds 40% approving of his overall job performance, compared with 38% in January. Looking back over the past six months, Bush's overall job approval has held steady, with only a slight dip to 36% in November.

Yesterday I noted that a CNN/Gallup/USAToday survey conducted in late January reported that only 31% of Americans have been "closely" following news about the Bush administration's domestic wiretapping story. The Pew study tracks the issue with a similarly worded question. They report the percentage following the story "very closely" increasing from 32% in early January to 37% on the most recent survey.

One great value in Pew's regular tracking is the ability to put these results into a useful context. The last table in the report compares interest in the wiretapping issue to others in the news lately. For example, only 24% say they followed news on the State of the Union address "very closely." They also regularly update "News Interest Index" with comparable results from other issues tracked on twenty years worth of Pew Center surveys.

Comments

Explain to me how a poll (Rasmussen) can consistently show higher (than other polls) approval ratings for the President and still have credibility and maintain a voice in the business of polling. Why don't pollsters point out the obvious bias about polling results? Where is the professional criticism? Is there some sort of code of ethics that says thou shalt not criticize another pollster.

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