3Qs: A deeper analysis of U.S.-Iran relations

Earlier this month, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder announced the foiled plot involving men allegedly linked to the Iranian government to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S.

Last week, agents from the FBI and Drug Enforce­ment Admin­is­tra­tion (DEA) dis­rupted an alleged plot to commit a “sig­nif­i­cant ter­rorist act in the United States” tied to Iran. U.S. gov­ern­ment offi­cials stated that the plot included the assas­si­na­tion of Adel Al-​​Jubeir, the Saudi Ara­bian ambas­sador to the United States, as well as sub­se­quent attacks on Saudi and Israeli embassies. Offi­cials claimed that the plot was “con­ceived” in Iran by a unit of Iran’s Rev­o­lu­tionary Guard Corps, the Quds Force. We asked Kim­berly Jones, a fac­ulty asso­ciate in North­eastern University’s Middle East Center for Peace, Cul­ture and Devel­op­ment, to explain how these alle­ga­tions may affect rela­tions among the United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the larger global community.

Vice Pres­i­dent Joseph Biden has com­mented that the U.S. gov­ern­ment must “unite world opinion” against Iran. How have other nations reacted thus far in response to the alle­ga­tions? What will be the ulti­mate response of the global community?

I think Vice Pres­i­dent Biden has set a heck of a bar with his com­ments. There are far more ques­tions than answers about the alleged assas­si­na­tion plot at this point, as there should be. Inter­est­ingly (and unsur­pris­ingly) the spec­u­la­tion, espe­cially in the early hours, gar­nered far more ink than the crit­ical queries. Atten­tion needs to focus on sev­eral ques­tions: Why would Iran develop an attack on U.S. soil at this time? Why break common-​​sense pro­to­cols about com­mu­ni­ca­tion? Why con­nect with Mex­ican orga­nized crime, and how could the cartel make a cost/​benefit analysis that involving them­selves would weigh in their favor?

As one would expect, the inter­na­tional response has been varied. One U.K. state­ment called the Iranian plot a “major esca­la­tion, “ while Russia took the matter “seri­ously” and China pointed out that it was still an investigation.

As far as the long-​​term response of the inter­na­tional com­mu­nity — the jury is still out — fig­u­ra­tively and lit­er­ally. At this point, there has been an indict­ment, but no one has been found guilty, other than in the court of public opinion.

I do think there are some who are more skep­tical of the United States in light of its war with Iran’s neighbor, Iraq, eight years ago. This is a dif­ferent sit­u­a­tion with a dif­ferent admin­is­tra­tion, but critics will want to better assess the veracity of the allegations.

What impact will these accu­sa­tions have on the already-​​tense rela­tion­ship between the U.S. and Iran?

The short answer is that time will tell — it depends how things play out. The rhetoric has cer­tainly been ratch­eted up, and new U.S. sanc­tions (against an Iranian air­line) are in place. Iran has essen­tially termed the alle­ga­tions a fairytale.

What has been the nature of the rela­tion­ship between Iran and Saudi Arabia his­tor­i­cally? Have there been any changes recently that may have been moti­va­tion for the alleged plot?

In the last few decades, there has been little love lost between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Some of this is couched in reli­gious rhetoric and real­i­ties (Saudi Arabia is Sunni and Iran is Shi’ite). How­ever, at base, the ten­sion between the two nations is about geopo­lit­ical posi­tioning and power over a range of issues in the region — sup­port for var­ious groups in the neigh­bor­hood, energy and the polit­ical reper­cus­sions from the “Year of Arab Discontent.”

Iran has a laundry list of real and rhetor­ical griev­ances — from Saudi sup­port for Iraq during the Iran-​​Iraq war, to what it has per­ceived as Saudi med­dling in Lebanon and Syria, to the recent Saudi inter­ven­tion in Bahrain on behalf of the minority Sunni monarchy against the protesting Shi’a majority.

Many regional observers, myself included, view Iran as a rational actor and are feeling hard-​​pressed, until more infor­ma­tion is avail­able, to see this as a strategic gambit that makes a lot of sense.

About the Writer

Lauren Dibble, BS'09, joined the news@Northeastern team in August 2011 as a media relations specialist. She previously worked for an international PR firm and has dabbled in event and consumer marketing. When not pitching or writing about the fantastic accomplishments of Northeastern students, faculty and alumni, Lauren can be found dodging Boston traffic on her bike, crooning karaoke tunes or planning her next trip overseas.

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