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November 5, 2012 by David K. Sutton

The 2012 Presidential Election Could Be Decided By The Auto Rescue

I’m not usually one to push mainstream media narratives, but this particular narrative is hard to ignore. If most (but not all) the states that are still in the too-close-to-call category start breaking for Romney tomorrow night but Ohio stays in Obama’s column, that will likely push Obama over the 270 electoral votes needed to win. If that happens, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that the U.S. auto industry rescue in 2009 played a major role in this election.

Historically, Ohio has been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the nation. But this year polls suggest that Ohio is slightly Democratic-leaning. That divergence — driven by the auto rescue and the state’s improved economy, local analysts said — may prove determinative. Ohio ranks first on FiveThirtyEight’s tipping point index. The model estimates there is roughly a 50 percent chance that the Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes will carry the winning candidate past the 270 mark. – Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Blog

If this is the outcome, it will mean Obama secured re-election on the foundation of a auto industry rescue much derided by Republicans. And it will prove once again Republicans were wrong on a very important issue both in policy and politics. / photo by J. Stephen Conn