Monday, August 04, 2014

2014 Missouri primary predictions

The racial politics that has infected
Democratic primaries in the City of St. Louis for so many years has
followed migrating voters to St. Louis County. White South County
Councilman Steve Stenger is challenging incumbent black County
Executive Charlie Dooley in a knock-down-drag-out slug fest.
Predominantly black townships in north St. Louis County are standing
behind the incumbent, while whites in south and west county are
backing the challenger. The only thing missing is a steel cage. The
racial divisions in this Democratic primary taint the Democrat
narrative that Republicans are the racists.

While lawn signs are unreliable
predictors of outcome, the total absence of Dooley signs in a sea of
Stenger signs in south county is notable. Adding to the racial
cleavage is the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, whose endorsement of Stenger
follows its recent consistent trend of exclusively endorsing whites
in Democratic primary contests against blacks. (The Post apparently
hates Republicans more than blacks, as it regularly endorses the
black candidates who defeat their endorsed primary opponents against
Republicans in the general election.)

The elites in liberal white central
county may decide the election, just as the elites in the central
corridor wards decide the racial wars in the city. Republican
crossovers will also be important, and the ones that do cross over
will tend to be of the more moderate strain. As I noted before, the
Dooley campaign seemingly went out of its way to offend those voters
with a negative ad that compared Stenger to moderate GOP hero Mitt
Romney. But central and west county crossovers will be limited by
spirited Republican primaries to replace retiring Sen. John Lamping.
State Rep. Dwight Scharnhorst and Councilman Greg Quinn.

I believe turnout will be the key, and
that north county Democrats will turn out strongly enough to save
Dooley. That result would also be most beneficial to Democrats in the
general election, because black turnout in that election would suffer
if Dooley loses, especially since there are no statewide contests at
stake (Democrats failed to file a candidate for state auditor, the
only statewide contest on the November ballot), and black incumbents
from Rep. Lacy Clay on down are all running in safe Democratic
districts. In contrast, a damaged Dooley would still likely win
re-election in November, following the pattern of his win against
well-financed Republican attorney Bill Corrigan against the grain of
the Republican wave in 2010.

There is also a spirited contest for
the Republican nomination. State Rep. Rick Stream has better
qualifications than Green Park Alderman Tony Pousosa, but Pousosa has
a dedicated grassroots following from Tea Partiers. Pousosa has lots
of lawn signs in south county, while Stream's are hard to find. Even
in Stream's base in Kirkwood, his signs are outnumbered by those for
Deb Lavender, the Democrat (unopposed in the primary) seeking
Stream's open seat in the Missouri house. Stream also suffers from
the kiss-of-death endorsement of the Post. While Stream remains the
favorite, I see that election as being close, and a Pousosa upset
would not be much of a surprise.

The GOP primary in Lamping's 24th
senate district demonstrates how conservative Republicans have grown
in just the past couple years. The most moderate candidate is John R.
“Jay” Ashcroft, namesake son of the conservative former governor
and senator. Tea Partiers are attacking the younger Ashcroft for his
alleged support for Medicaid expansion and a possible city-county
merger. But conservatives are divided between two self-funding
opponents. The conservative reputation of the Ashcroft brand should
bring a primary win to that budding dynasty, but the general election
in that swing district remains in doubt.

The racial wars in the City involve
three contests. The hottest one (License Collector) doesn't actually
have a white candidate, but features a black candidate (Jeffrey Boyd)
who has solid support among most white Democratic officials and
organizations, running against an appointed black incumbent (Mavis
Thompson) who enjoys significant (but less unanimous) support from
black Democratic officials and organizations. It is reminiscent of
the 1997 mayoral contest, in which south side whites ousted black
Mayor Freeman Bosley, Jr. by backing another African American, former
police chief Clarence Harmon (“the white man's black man”). Boyd
appears to be this year's Harmon. In a vanity battle of surrogates,
Mayor Francis Slay is backing Boyd, while Gov. Jay Nixon stands
behind his appointment of Thompson. Boyd has endorsements from all
the pivotal central corridor wards and should oust Thompson.

The city contest that should be most
interesting is one that Democrats are trying to hide. Veteran white
Recorder of Deeds Sharon Carpenter resigned over a nepotism scandal,
but continues to seek a new term anyway. Both of her primary opponents are
black, are not very appealing and lack funds to mount a serious
campaign. The late-breaking scandal may give Edward McFowland some
traction, especially in black wards, but former alderman Jimmie
Matthews will split off a significant part of the vote. I believe
city Democratic voters will look beyond the primary to the
independent candidacy of appointed incumbent Jennifer Florida in the
general election and stick with Carpenter temporarily in the primary.

The final race war pits school board
member Bill Haas against state Rep. Kimberly Gardner. While this
contest between two attorneys should merit more attention, the racial
composition of the district makes Gardner a 2-to-1 favorite.