1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:07,194
[MUSIC]
2
00:00:07,194 --> 00:00:08,980
I love SEO.
3
00:00:08,980 --> 00:00:16,115
I love the idea that there's
an algorithm that is not transparent.
4
00:00:16,115 --> 00:00:18,861
That Google hides information from us.
5
00:00:18,861 --> 00:00:22,807
Information that would make us more
successful, that in my opinion would make
6
00:00:22,807 --> 00:00:26,225
the web a better place if it
were transparent and open.
7
00:00:26,225 --> 00:00:29,884
I realize that's my opinion and
not their opinion.
8
00:00:29,884 --> 00:00:32,135
Doesn't mean it's any less true to me.
9
00:00:33,450 --> 00:00:37,140
And so I love the job that I have, and
10
00:00:37,140 --> 00:00:41,234
that I sometimes get to do of
making Google more transparent.
11
00:00:41,234 --> 00:00:41,771
That's what I wanna do.
12
00:00:41,771 --> 00:00:45,610
And that's what I get to do today.
13
00:00:45,610 --> 00:00:49,460
So, you can find these slides
at bit.ly/onsiteseo2015.
14
00:00:49,460 --> 00:00:55,870
I wanna urge you not to have to,
you know, take mad crazy notes and
15
00:00:55,870 --> 00:01:00,090
look up URLs on the fly, because you
can get them all, click them all there.
16
00:01:00,090 --> 00:01:03,030
I will ask you to do one thing
at the end of the presentation,
17
00:01:03,030 --> 00:01:05,100
but you can't use your laptop for it.
18
00:01:05,100 --> 00:01:07,600
At least you can't use any
device connected to the WiFi,
19
00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:09,170
if you remember this little trick.
20
00:01:10,430 --> 00:01:14,860
Got another fun one for you, all right?
21
00:01:14,860 --> 00:01:18,220
So let's take a quick
journey into the past.
22
00:01:18,220 --> 00:01:21,470
Remember when we only had one job?
23
00:01:22,810 --> 00:01:25,240
Hopefully we didn't mess it up like this.
24
00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,520
And that job, right,
was perfectly optimized pages.
25
00:01:31,570 --> 00:01:34,458
Sweet, I can perfectly optimize a page.
26
00:01:36,270 --> 00:01:39,250
It was the search quality team at Google.
27
00:01:39,250 --> 00:01:42,100
I remember my first trip to building 43,
right.
28
00:01:42,100 --> 00:01:46,010
Go in there during SES 2005 in San Jose.
29
00:01:46,010 --> 00:01:51,230
And they used to host a party,
at the Googleplex, for SEOs.
30
00:01:51,230 --> 00:01:53,230
That was awesome.
31
00:01:53,230 --> 00:01:55,250
Very, very early Googly of them.
32
00:01:56,620 --> 00:02:00,040
And those early search quality engineers,
33
00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,960
they decided that links said
more about you than content.
34
00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:08,910
Because what other say about you is
more important than what you say about
35
00:02:08,910 --> 00:02:10,560
yourself.
36
00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:11,850
That's pretty reasonable.
37
00:02:13,100 --> 00:02:17,690
So we did what we always do.
38
00:02:17,690 --> 00:02:21,540
We optimized the hell out of that and
had this ubiquitous link spam.
39
00:02:21,540 --> 00:02:25,010
I think by 2007, you know,
you want to rank for
40
00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:28,576
something, eh,
you probably bought some links.
41
00:02:28,576 --> 00:02:34,330
Even in 2012,
Will Reynolds got on this stage
42
00:02:35,970 --> 00:02:41,260
and told us how Google was making
liars out of the white hat SEO world.
43
00:02:41,260 --> 00:02:43,970
He was right.
44
00:02:43,970 --> 00:02:46,240
Totally, totally right.
45
00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:47,690
It was hard being a white hat.
46
00:02:49,110 --> 00:02:51,500
The last three years though, not so hard.
47
00:02:52,890 --> 00:02:53,900
Really really not hard.
48
00:02:53,900 --> 00:02:56,820
I think the infrastructure improvements,
hardware and
49
00:02:56,820 --> 00:03:00,940
software infrastructure improvements that
Google made, underlying their systems,
50
00:03:00,940 --> 00:03:04,470
things like caffeine, allowed them to
make the progress that they have made.
51
00:03:06,260 --> 00:03:08,880
I know and Moz knows a little
something about technical debt.
52
00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:11,100
I think that's exactly what
Google was experiencing.
53
00:03:11,100 --> 00:03:15,240
So they finally had these algorithms
to fight manipulative links and
54
00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:16,330
content, right?
55
00:03:16,330 --> 00:03:20,050
They leveraged fear and uncertainty
of penalization to keep the rest of
56
00:03:20,050 --> 00:03:25,450
the sites inline, even if they couldn't
catch you, you never knew if they might.
57
00:03:25,450 --> 00:03:27,400
They figured out intent, right?
58
00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,580
They knew hey if I'm looking for best beef
in Seattle, I probably am not just looking
59
00:03:31,580 --> 00:03:35,060
for pages that have lots of anchor
text pointing to them with beef.
60
00:03:35,060 --> 00:03:35,740
Right.
61
00:03:35,740 --> 00:03:37,050
I want Butcher shops,
62
00:03:37,050 --> 00:03:41,010
maybe I want a Carnivore's guide
to a restaurants in Seattle.
63
00:03:41,010 --> 00:03:44,180
They looked at language,
not just keywords.
64
00:03:44,180 --> 00:03:45,970
All right.
So, what's that movie where they make fun
65
00:03:45,970 --> 00:03:47,360
of Star Trek?
66
00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:48,440
Yeah, here.
67
00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:49,860
Pretty good.
68
00:03:49,860 --> 00:03:51,010
Solid.
69
00:03:51,010 --> 00:03:51,640
Right.
70
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:53,890
They predicted when I
wanted diverse results.
71
00:03:53,890 --> 00:03:57,860
So, they're not just gonna give me list
of books, they're gonna give me a book.
72
00:03:57,860 --> 00:04:02,120
They're going to give me start up library,
they're on it.
73
00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:07,410
They figured out when we wanted freshness,
and when we didn't.
74
00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:08,750
Right?
That's marketing conference as well.
75
00:04:08,750 --> 00:04:11,870
You know, he probably doesn't
want stuff from before 2014,
76
00:04:11,870 --> 00:04:14,820
that's not going to be useful.
77
00:04:16,510 --> 00:04:19,560
I think one of the best
things that they did,
78
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:24,320
one of the most impressive things they
did, is they started closing the loophole
79
00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,820
around navigational versus
informational queries.
80
00:04:27,820 --> 00:04:28,900
Right?
So, it used to be that,
81
00:04:28,900 --> 00:04:32,580
when I'd search for these things,
Google was very confused.
82
00:04:32,580 --> 00:04:34,570
They weren't sure which one I wanted.
83
00:04:34,570 --> 00:04:38,970
Now they've kinda got that QDD,
query deserves diversity, and
84
00:04:38,970 --> 00:04:42,370
a lot of intense signals, and
a lot of behavioral signals, and so
85
00:04:42,370 --> 00:04:46,430
they can do a much, much better
job around these kinds of queries.
86
00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,020
They learned to ID entities of knowledge.
87
00:04:53,950 --> 00:04:57,070
This is also very impressive and
very, very cool.
88
00:04:57,070 --> 00:04:57,730
Right?
89
00:04:57,730 --> 00:04:59,460
And then they took those entities and
90
00:04:59,460 --> 00:05:02,985
were able to connect an entity
to a topic or a keyword.
91
00:05:02,985 --> 00:05:06,293
Smart, very smart.
92
00:05:08,359 --> 00:05:11,638
One of the things that became and
entity was a brand.
93
00:05:11,638 --> 00:05:17,460
Remember Bill and
I had a big conversation about this,
94
00:05:17,460 --> 00:05:22,080
and he's like Google does
not talk about brands as
95
00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,430
being something as they recognize,
that's not something that they use a lot.
96
00:05:25,430 --> 00:05:27,340
And then a few days later he
tweeted at me, he's like,
97
00:05:27,340 --> 00:05:32,000
you know what, I went back and looked,
Google does talk a lot about brands.
98
00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:36,620
Their research papers, their patents, this
brand thing, maybe I think you're right,
99
00:05:36,620 --> 00:05:37,970
I think it's got some legs.
100
00:05:39,180 --> 00:05:44,092
And a lot of these advancements
bring Google back in line with
101
00:05:44,092 --> 00:05:48,730
their public statements around
how SEOs should be done.
102
00:05:50,290 --> 00:05:54,000
I like that a little bit because
I think that it's good when
103
00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,780
how SEO works matches how
Google talks about SEO.
104
00:05:57,780 --> 00:06:01,830
But because for all of us in here
who have skepticism, rightfully so,
105
00:06:01,830 --> 00:06:06,220
skepticism around Google or any other
entity that tells us how we should behave,
106
00:06:06,220 --> 00:06:08,350
how we should be doing marketing.
107
00:06:08,350 --> 00:06:13,420
There are 100, maybe 1,000 people
who do some form of marketing,
108
00:06:14,460 --> 00:06:18,160
some form of working on the web,
and don't have that skepticism.
109
00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:20,850
They think they just are supposed
to blindly trust Google.
110
00:06:22,930 --> 00:06:24,920
I get really frustrated for that.
111
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,080
You know, I feel for those people,
112
00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:28,679
cuz I think they rely on
Google to tell them the truth.
113
00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:33,400
And when they don't, it hurts them.
114
00:06:34,450 --> 00:06:36,000
It hurts the small entities.
115
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:36,780
It doesn't hurt Google.
116
00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:41,470
So during all these advances,
117
00:06:41,470 --> 00:06:45,120
Google search quality team underwent
kind of a quiet revolution.
118
00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,959
A revolution that we do not talk about.
119
00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:51,600
And I'll take you there.
120
00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,500
So this is Peter Norvig.
121
00:06:53,500 --> 00:06:59,460
Originally the director of Google
search quality way back in the day.
122
00:06:59,460 --> 00:07:03,780
Peter Norvig was interviewed
on a blog called Datawocky.
123
00:07:03,780 --> 00:07:05,060
This is 2008.
124
00:07:05,060 --> 00:07:06,680
We're going way back, right.
125
00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:11,580
And he says Google still uses the manually
crafted formula for search results.
126
00:07:11,580 --> 00:07:14,380
They haven't cut over to
a machine learned model yet.
127
00:07:14,380 --> 00:07:18,010
Now machine learning was already
something that was out, right, in 2008,
128
00:07:18,010 --> 00:07:20,070
but not something Google was using yet.
129
00:07:21,930 --> 00:07:25,860
Amit Singhal, right,
next sort of person in this position.
130
00:07:25,860 --> 00:07:27,150
Head of Search Quality there.
131
00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:33,050
This is Edmond Lau who worked on Amit's
team answering a question on Quora.
132
00:07:34,190 --> 00:07:38,964
I think answering a question on Quora in
2011 or 12, from what I gathered while I
133
00:07:38,964 --> 00:07:43,609
was there, Amit Singhal who heads Google's
core ranking team has a philosophical
134
00:07:43,609 --> 00:07:47,214
bias against using machine
learning in the ranking algorithm.
135
00:07:49,327 --> 00:07:51,940
All right.
136
00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:53,750
But, and if you want,
137
00:07:53,750 --> 00:07:58,750
you can read admin's answer in more depth
and see why Amit was so against this.
138
00:08:00,830 --> 00:08:04,130
But 2012 rolls around and
Google publishes a paper
139
00:08:04,130 --> 00:08:07,880
about how they're using machine learning
to predict ad click through rate.
140
00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:12,870
So they're using it on the PPC side, not,
not necessarily yet on the SEO side.
141
00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:19,450
And here's Susan, I think her last
name is pronounced Wojcicki, Wojcicki?
142
00:08:19,450 --> 00:08:23,115
If you're Polish and you can correct me,
feel free to yell it out.
143
00:08:23,115 --> 00:08:25,020
>> [INAUDIBLE]
>> What'd you say?
144
00:08:26,380 --> 00:08:27,475
Sorry, Marta, what was that?
145
00:08:27,475 --> 00:08:29,980
>> [INAUDIBLE]
>> Wojcicki.
146
00:08:29,980 --> 00:08:30,810
Wojcicki?
147
00:08:30,810 --> 00:08:31,320
Okay, all right.
148
00:08:32,510 --> 00:08:36,500
Gonna, the person who introduced her in
this video also mispronounced her name.
149
00:08:36,500 --> 00:08:38,510
So you can, you know, all right.
150
00:08:38,510 --> 00:08:40,010
So this is 2012 ,right?
151
00:08:40,010 --> 00:08:42,020
And she talks about their SmartAss system.
152
00:08:42,020 --> 00:08:43,490
'Cuz, of course,
153
00:08:43,490 --> 00:08:46,610
Google engineers are gonna name
something as cleverly as they can.
154
00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:50,980
it learns whether users
are interested in ads, and
155
00:08:50,980 --> 00:08:52,550
whether users are gonna click on them.
156
00:08:52,550 --> 00:08:54,590
Predictively learns.
157
00:08:54,590 --> 00:08:59,860
So, 2013 rolls around,
Matt Cutts is at Pubcon and he talks about
158
00:08:59,860 --> 00:09:04,930
how they're using machine learning
in search, not just on the ad side,
159
00:09:04,930 --> 00:09:09,550
on the organic side.
160
00:09:09,550 --> 00:09:15,180
This is sea change, when machine learning
takes over more of Google's algorithm,
161
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:21,630
the underpinnings of how rankings work and
the intuition,
162
00:09:21,630 --> 00:09:26,780
like that, you know that sixth sense
that we build up as search marketers?
163
00:09:26,780 --> 00:09:29,620
Of like, oh, I know why that ranks.
164
00:09:29,620 --> 00:09:33,310
Like I know it right, I can tell it's like
yeah, it's an exact match domain, but
165
00:09:33,310 --> 00:09:33,930
that's not what it's doing.
166
00:09:33,930 --> 00:09:36,240
It was an exact match
domain five years ago.
167
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:40,275
So it's getting a bunch of anchor text,
and so that's why.
168
00:09:40,275 --> 00:09:44,591
That kind of intuition that we build
up over the years of looking at search
169
00:09:44,591 --> 00:09:48,289
results and reverse engineering and
all that, they change.
170
00:09:48,289 --> 00:09:52,654
Google's actually public about exactly
how they use machine learning for
171
00:09:52,654 --> 00:09:55,084
image recognition and classification.
172
00:09:55,084 --> 00:09:59,800
Remember they had a little problem with
gorillas last week, two weeks ago?
173
00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:00,879
Yeah.
174
00:10:00,879 --> 00:10:03,210
Well, this is that process.
175
00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,100
So Google takes potential
identification factors for images,
176
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:13,930
like color, shapes,
gradients, perspectives,
177
00:10:13,930 --> 00:10:17,720
surroundings, interlacing, alt tags,
whatever they can find, right?
178
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,990
And then they take training data Images
where people have actually gone in and
179
00:10:21,990 --> 00:10:23,810
said, this is what this image is about.
180
00:10:23,810 --> 00:10:28,250
Here's all the tags for this image,
whether editorially created or
181
00:10:28,250 --> 00:10:32,040
created by communities,
I'm not sure, but regardless.
182
00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:37,560
And then they have a learning process so
that they can take all those factors and
183
00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:41,930
build the best possible
automated algorithm to pump out
184
00:10:41,930 --> 00:10:46,110
results that look like the training data,
right, that match up to that.
185
00:10:46,110 --> 00:10:48,100
And you get a Best Match Algo.
186
00:10:48,100 --> 00:10:50,450
All right.
187
00:10:50,450 --> 00:10:53,600
That's kinda classic machine learning,
right?
188
00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,020
Not too challenging.
189
00:10:55,020 --> 00:10:58,590
So if you have not yet
read it, my opinion,
190
00:10:58,590 --> 00:11:04,170
Jeff Dean's slides on deep learning
at Google are a must-read.
191
00:11:04,170 --> 00:11:05,400
I think that is.
192
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:09,970
You can't call yourself a modern,
sophisticated SEO without
193
00:11:09,970 --> 00:11:12,940
reading through that slide deck and
understanding at least a little.
194
00:11:12,940 --> 00:11:14,740
You guys know who Jeff Dean is?
195
00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:17,310
He's one of these very very
196
00:11:17,310 --> 00:11:20,660
highly regarded individual
contributor engineers at Google.
197
00:11:20,660 --> 00:11:23,200
There's actually a wiki at Google
198
00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:28,020
made up of jokes about how good
at programming Jeff Dean is.
199
00:11:28,020 --> 00:11:30,698
I'll tell you one of my
favorite Jeff Dean jokes.
200
00:11:30,698 --> 00:11:34,440
It's totally groan-worthy,
it's like a Dad joke.
201
00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:40,130
So back in 2003,
202
00:11:40,130 --> 00:11:45,850
the speed of light in a vacuum
was 35 miles an hour.
203
00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:52,286
Until Jeff Dean spent
a weekend optimizing physics.
204
00:11:52,286 --> 00:11:56,690
>> [LAUGH]
>> Jeff Dean, alright.
205
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:02,390
Machine learning in search
could work a lot like this.
206
00:12:02,390 --> 00:12:02,977
A lot like this.
207
00:12:02,977 --> 00:12:07,459
Watch you take potential ranking factors,
everything that you can think of.
208
00:12:07,459 --> 00:12:11,860
TFIDF, page rank, anchor text,
whatever you want.
209
00:12:11,860 --> 00:12:12,970
QDF, clicks, etc., etc., etc.
210
00:12:12,970 --> 00:12:15,294
And then you take training data.
211
00:12:15,294 --> 00:12:20,691
Things where you know, hey, we Google have
awesome search results for these queries.
212
00:12:20,691 --> 00:12:23,964
Here's 50 thousand queries
where we just feel awesome,
213
00:12:23,964 --> 00:12:26,330
we love every single
result in the top ten.
214
00:12:26,330 --> 00:12:27,530
We love the ordering.
215
00:12:28,540 --> 00:12:34,427
Boom, you plug those in,
you have your learning process,
216
00:12:34,427 --> 00:12:37,738
and you get a best fit algorithm.
217
00:12:37,738 --> 00:12:38,981
Sweet.
218
00:12:38,981 --> 00:12:40,980
Right?
219
00:12:40,980 --> 00:12:43,470
Training data,
that's Jeff Dean right there.
220
00:12:43,470 --> 00:12:46,806
Of course he's sort of all American,
good looking.
221
00:12:46,806 --> 00:12:48,983
Engineer guy.
222
00:12:48,983 --> 00:12:54,060
And, he says, right, this is a good SERP,
searchers rarely bounce.
223
00:12:54,060 --> 00:12:55,570
They rarely short-click.
224
00:12:55,570 --> 00:12:58,980
They rarely need to enter other queries or
go to page 2.
225
00:12:58,980 --> 00:13:00,280
Good search result.
226
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,620
All right,
227
00:13:01,620 --> 00:13:04,829
we're gonna take that, we're gonna
compare that against a bad search result.
228
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:07,532
Right?
229
00:13:07,532 --> 00:13:12,069
Bad SERP results the searchers bounce they
click other results they rarely long click
230
00:13:12,069 --> 00:13:14,730
they are very unhappy with
these search results.
231
00:13:14,730 --> 00:13:19,434
And then the machines are going to try and
emulate the ranking input
232
00:13:19,434 --> 00:13:24,560
formula that gives them the most good
results and the least bad results.
233
00:13:26,450 --> 00:13:29,260
Just all not that
tremendously complicated.
234
00:13:29,260 --> 00:13:32,700
Why was Amit Singhal against this
why was Peter Norvig against this?
235
00:13:32,700 --> 00:13:35,840
Because once you start digging into a
machine learning system it's actually very
236
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,820
hard to figure out why
something ranks where it does.
237
00:13:40,170 --> 00:13:42,000
Very, very hard.
238
00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:47,040
You get all these weird calculations and
derivatives and ya duh, duh, duh, duh.
239
00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:48,380
Lot of stuff I don't even understand.
240
00:13:48,380 --> 00:13:52,090
And then there's deep learning.
241
00:13:52,090 --> 00:13:56,320
So deep learning is just a slightly more
advanced version of machine learning.
242
00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:58,980
It basically says, okay, yes.
243
00:13:58,980 --> 00:14:02,160
It's fancy in that it's inspired,
loosely inspired,
244
00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,130
by what we know about how
the biological brain works.
245
00:14:05,130 --> 00:14:08,000
Which makes it sound like oh,
that must be really cool.
246
00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:12,736
No, no, no.
It's just more layers of abstraction.
247
00:14:12,736 --> 00:14:15,035
So that you get a more sophisticated
machine learning, right?
248
00:14:15,035 --> 00:14:19,682
So, Jeff Dean says by using
deep learning they don't
249
00:14:19,682 --> 00:14:24,140
actually have to tell
the system that this is a cat.
250
00:14:26,170 --> 00:14:28,220
The system figures out what a cat is.
251
00:14:28,220 --> 00:14:31,810
It looks at lots of pictures and
it creates its own classification for cat.
252
00:14:34,300 --> 00:14:37,060
That's an algorithm that
builds an algorithm.
253
00:14:38,580 --> 00:14:40,800
Right, with no human intervention.
254
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,329
Googlers don't feed in the ranking factors
255
00:14:44,340 --> 00:14:46,180
at least in deep learning frameworks,
right?
256
00:14:46,180 --> 00:14:49,962
The machines determine
the ranking factors themselves.
257
00:14:53,305 --> 00:14:54,200
Guess what we don't need?
258
00:14:55,270 --> 00:14:57,160
Oh, no, no,
you just give me training data,
259
00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:02,650
you tell me what good is, and
I the machine will learn everything else.
260
00:15:02,650 --> 00:15:03,940
Ooh!
261
00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:07,440
That's a interesting to
get a best fit algo.
262
00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:09,150
No wonder that Elon Musk and
263
00:15:09,150 --> 00:15:13,390
Bill gates are like super freaked out
that Google's gonna build the terminator.
264
00:15:13,390 --> 00:15:18,000
This is actually a real concern
that these gentlemen have.
265
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,760
Like they're smart guys and they're
like oh no, Google will kill us all.
266
00:15:23,130 --> 00:15:24,530
And I think Larry Page is there.
267
00:15:24,530 --> 00:15:26,926
He's like you know,
we're all gonna die anyway.
268
00:15:26,926 --> 00:15:32,260
[LAUGH]
>> One of Moz's investors Brad Feld
269
00:15:32,260 --> 00:15:38,520
likes to say Google believes that
human kind is just the boot loader for
270
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,409
the eventual machine intelligence
that will conquer the universe.
271
00:15:42,900 --> 00:15:43,400
Shit.
272
00:15:44,660 --> 00:15:46,690
That's, that's just depressing Brad.
273
00:15:46,690 --> 00:15:49,550
Okay, what does deep learning mean for
SEO?
274
00:15:51,230 --> 00:15:53,370
Cause you know,
if we're gonna be killed by machines,
275
00:15:53,370 --> 00:15:56,780
we should at least try and do the best
marketing we can before the kill us all.
276
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,910
Well it means, for one thing Google is
not gonna know why something ranks or
277
00:16:01,910 --> 00:16:04,170
whether it's a variable in the algorithm.
278
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:07,975
Okay, you're right Jeff, I'm sorry.
279
00:16:07,975 --> 00:16:15,140
>> [LAUGH]
>> He's Jeff Dean, he'll know.
280
00:16:15,140 --> 00:16:17,010
Query success metrics.
281
00:16:17,010 --> 00:16:21,140
Query success metrics will be all
that matters to the machines.
282
00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:23,310
They don't care how they got there.
283
00:16:23,310 --> 00:16:24,860
They don't care what inputs they used.
284
00:16:24,860 --> 00:16:28,690
They just care that they got the best SERP
right, so they might look at things like
285
00:16:28,690 --> 00:16:33,250
long to short click ratio, and relative
click-through rate versus other results.
286
00:16:33,250 --> 00:16:36,280
And rate of searchers conducting
additional related searches,
287
00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:39,830
which suggests they weren't
satisfied by the first one.
288
00:16:39,830 --> 00:16:43,860
Things like sharing and
amplification rate versus other results.
289
00:16:43,860 --> 00:16:48,140
They might look at metrics of user
engagement across the domain,
290
00:16:48,140 --> 00:16:52,490
metrics of user engagement on
the specific page, that stuff matters.
291
00:16:53,500 --> 00:16:57,260
If lots of results on a search
result do those well, and
292
00:16:57,260 --> 00:16:59,220
higher results are outperforming
lower results,
293
00:16:59,220 --> 00:17:02,890
well, you know what, the deep learning
algo's gonna be like, nailed it.
294
00:17:05,850 --> 00:17:08,040
We're gonna be optimizing less for
295
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:12,760
ranking inputs like more linking your
domains, more keywords in title, and
296
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,910
more anchor text and
content uniqueness and duh, duh, duh, duh.
297
00:17:14,910 --> 00:17:17,270
And we're gonna be optimizing more for
298
00:17:17,270 --> 00:17:21,640
searcher outputs like, did we get a high
click-through rate for this position?
299
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:22,730
Did we get good engagement?
300
00:17:22,730 --> 00:17:24,110
Did we get a high amplification rate?
301
00:17:24,110 --> 00:17:25,240
Did we get a low bounce rate?
302
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,280
A strong pages per visit
after landing on this URL?
303
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,520
People return to this site right
after making an initial search visit.
304
00:17:33,220 --> 00:17:37,480
Optimizing for outputs rather than inputs?
305
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,040
That's, that's a new SEO?
306
00:17:41,510 --> 00:17:42,500
That's weird, right?
307
00:17:42,500 --> 00:17:46,130
And then it will try and figure out
which ones we missed and work on those.
308
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:51,880
I think when we get to
the future of on-site SEO,
309
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,610
these are going to be new criteria.
310
00:17:53,610 --> 00:17:56,850
We're still going to have
to worry about the inputs,
311
00:17:56,850 --> 00:17:59,780
I'm not saying those are going away,
the inputs still matter because they
312
00:17:59,780 --> 00:18:02,870
predict and suggest successful output,
but will have to do both.
313
00:18:05,290 --> 00:18:09,650
Okay, your thinking so terminators and
314
00:18:09,650 --> 00:18:13,910
deep learning, Rand, that's my future?
315
00:18:13,910 --> 00:18:16,320
Forget about the terminators.
316
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:22,040
Right now, today, can I show you anything
that suggests this is already happening?
317
00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:23,680
Anything?
318
00:18:25,620 --> 00:18:27,160
Well, of course I can.
319
00:18:28,450 --> 00:18:30,120
There's no way I'd set up
a question like that and
320
00:18:30,120 --> 00:18:32,230
then be like nope, sorry,
can't, presentation over.
321
00:18:33,370 --> 00:18:34,325
So here we go.
322
00:18:34,325 --> 00:18:38,730
[LAUGH] You know what I just,
I know this is wrong.
323
00:18:38,730 --> 00:18:44,780
I know this is not a good way to feel
psychologically good about one's self,
324
00:18:44,780 --> 00:18:46,660
but I love it when I can mess with Google.
325
00:18:47,790 --> 00:18:51,920
I love it when they tell me something and
I can be like, yeah, but really, no.
326
00:18:52,990 --> 00:18:53,600
All right, here we go.
327
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,260
So do you remember our queries and
clicks test from last year?
328
00:18:57,260 --> 00:19:01,520
Right, we all search for something,
we click on a result, boom.
329
00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:03,580
That result suddenly rises to the top.
330
00:19:05,020 --> 00:19:05,920
Fascinating.
331
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:10,820
Well, turns out, I tried this test a few
more times after MozCon last year.
332
00:19:10,820 --> 00:19:15,120
Because it worked successfully a number
of times in a row leading up to MozCon,
333
00:19:15,120 --> 00:19:17,090
then we all did the test together.
334
00:19:17,090 --> 00:19:20,350
And by an hour after the show had ended,
335
00:19:20,350 --> 00:19:22,510
that result that we all
tested had jumped to the top.
336
00:19:22,510 --> 00:19:24,710
I think it was a result for
Seattle wedding dresses.
337
00:19:24,710 --> 00:19:25,750
Boom, jumped to the top.
338
00:19:27,120 --> 00:19:29,500
Since then,
it's been way harder to do this.
339
00:19:29,500 --> 00:19:32,250
I've tried the experiment
a number of other times.
340
00:19:32,250 --> 00:19:36,010
Way, way harder to move the needle
with raw queries and clicks.
341
00:19:37,580 --> 00:19:41,141
And then this year at SMX Advanced,
342
00:19:41,141 --> 00:19:46,460
a Google representative said,
I, well, okay.
343
00:19:46,460 --> 00:19:47,180
Danny, right.
344
00:19:47,180 --> 00:19:48,920
Danny asked him, I thought this was fun.
345
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:53,717
We know you measure what clicks
are going on, blah blah blah.
346
00:19:53,717 --> 00:19:56,783
And then, you know Gary is like.
347
00:19:56,783 --> 00:20:00,275
There are many people who are trying
to induce noise in clicks.
348
00:20:00,275 --> 00:20:01,728
One would be Rand Fishkin.
349
00:20:01,728 --> 00:20:06,900
>> [LAUGH]
>> Now wait, using those clicks directly
350
00:20:06,900 --> 00:20:11,950
in ranking would be pretty, and
then ellipses, cuz Danny says,
351
00:20:11,950 --> 00:20:16,670
is Rand just clicking the stuff to mess
it up, which he knows I'm not, but.
352
00:20:16,670 --> 00:20:20,720
And Gary says, I think what he's doing
is hiring people to click on stuff.
353
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:28,070
>> [LAUGH]
>> Did I pay any of you to click on stuff?
354
00:20:28,070 --> 00:20:30,890
Have you received a check from me?
355
00:20:30,890 --> 00:20:31,824
Any cash?
356
00:20:31,824 --> 00:20:33,218
No, it's fine.
357
00:20:33,218 --> 00:20:34,980
Like I get what Gary's trying to say,
358
00:20:34,980 --> 00:20:37,524
hiring might not have been
the verb he was looking for.
359
00:20:37,524 --> 00:20:42,670
But using clicks directly in ranking would
not make too much sense with that noise.
360
00:20:43,710 --> 00:20:44,620
No, it would not.
361
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,720
Fair enough, Gary, you're totally right,
362
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,740
case closed, Google says they
don't use clicks in the rankings.
363
00:20:50,740 --> 00:20:53,130
Maybe it's just like, who knows,
364
00:20:53,130 --> 00:20:56,850
random that those five times I tried
it last summer totally worked.
365
00:20:56,850 --> 00:21:01,210
I must be, well,
what if we tried something else?
366
00:21:01,210 --> 00:21:04,237
What if we tried long clicks and
short clicks?
367
00:21:04,237 --> 00:21:08,141
Long click is I click on something in
the search results, I stay on the page,
368
00:21:08,141 --> 00:21:12,547
versus short click, I click on something,
go to the page, click back immediately.
369
00:21:12,547 --> 00:21:16,623
So here's Serious Eats, which by the way,
370
00:21:16,623 --> 00:21:21,370
Bobby Flay, come on, not a quality chef.
371
00:21:21,370 --> 00:21:24,070
Not a quality dude, but
also not a quality chef.
372
00:21:24,070 --> 00:21:27,310
I'm sorry to those of you
who are big Bobby Flay fans.
373
00:21:27,310 --> 00:21:32,570
But you should be making steak
via this Serious Eats recipe.
374
00:21:32,570 --> 00:21:35,112
So there we go, ranking number four there.
375
00:21:35,112 --> 00:21:39,570
11:39 AM on June 21st, I sent this Tweet.
376
00:21:39,570 --> 00:21:42,310
If you have 20 seconds,
I'd love some help doing this.
377
00:21:42,310 --> 00:21:43,300
Click the query,
378
00:21:43,300 --> 00:21:47,440
long click this, short click on
Bobby Flay, long click on Serious Eats.
379
00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:52,220
40 minutes and
400 interactions later, whew,
380
00:21:52,220 --> 00:21:56,710
I guess Google is not using,
I mean, is using clicks.
381
00:21:56,710 --> 00:22:01,740
Weird.
70 minutes and 500 interactions, oh.
382
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,769
I can't even describe how good I
was feeling, I was like [SOUND].
383
00:22:08,769 --> 00:22:09,883
>> [LAUGH].
384
00:22:09,883 --> 00:22:15,549
>> Just, sometimes proving people wrong,
it just feels so good.
385
00:22:15,549 --> 00:22:22,067
Stays 12 hours, then it fell that next,
look, I am not a conspiracy theorist,
386
00:22:22,067 --> 00:22:26,412
but at 9 AM, Switzerland time,
the next morning when
387
00:22:26,412 --> 00:22:31,701
the Google Switzerland webmaster
tools team got into the office,
388
00:22:31,701 --> 00:22:37,288
it fell down 13 ranking positions,
almost exactly at 9:05 AM.
389
00:22:37,288 --> 00:22:40,610
Then, it goes back to number
four about an hour later.
390
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,080
They're, via Google Trends by the way,
391
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,190
this is the sickest thing you can
do with the new Google Trends.
392
00:22:46,190 --> 00:22:48,490
You can specify a custom
date range by hour.
393
00:22:50,250 --> 00:22:53,890
So for example, this has nothing to do
with my presentation, but like a bunch of
394
00:22:53,890 --> 00:22:59,180
speakers have talked about this so, for
example, if you run a branded ad on TV,
395
00:22:59,180 --> 00:23:05,180
and you wanna see how much search
volume you induced, you can go see.
396
00:23:05,180 --> 00:23:07,250
You won't know exactly how
many people clicked on you,
397
00:23:07,250 --> 00:23:09,280
but you can get a pretty good sense.
398
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,460
That's awesome, I love the new
Google Trends, that's great.
399
00:23:12,460 --> 00:23:16,260
So we had about five to ten times
normal volume over three to four hours.
400
00:23:16,260 --> 00:23:20,840
That's fairly substantial, but
not huge, right, not huge.
401
00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,780
By the way, do not try and spam this.
402
00:23:24,780 --> 00:23:27,760
This is crazy hard to replicate.
403
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:33,390
We're talking about 600 real searchers on
devices that were differently geolocated,
404
00:23:33,390 --> 00:23:35,890
different logged in
versus logged out users,
405
00:23:35,890 --> 00:23:39,270
real users who performed real searches,
all day, every day.
406
00:23:39,270 --> 00:23:41,460
We are not talking about bot farms.
407
00:23:41,460 --> 00:23:46,120
If you go to clickmonkey.com and
purchase like the $500 click package,
408
00:23:46,120 --> 00:23:48,209
you will be sorely disappointed.
409
00:23:51,316 --> 00:23:58,537
I think the future that we have
is optimizing for two algorithms.
410
00:23:58,537 --> 00:24:01,760
And the best SEOs have always
optimized where we're going, right?
411
00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:03,290
I think today, we know where we're going.
412
00:24:03,290 --> 00:24:07,650
We're going to your new home,
the user and usage data and
413
00:24:07,650 --> 00:24:09,780
machine learning model cabin.
414
00:24:11,120 --> 00:24:13,250
Oh my God,
that's the least sexy name ever.
415
00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:15,324
I'm gonna work on the branding, I promise.
416
00:24:15,324 --> 00:24:19,850
So I think we get to choose how
we're gonna balance our work.
417
00:24:21,170 --> 00:24:26,040
There's the signals of old, right,
the signals of old, the inputs,
418
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:27,220
the search inputs.
419
00:24:27,220 --> 00:24:31,270
And then there's the new signals
that are on the rise, the outputs.
420
00:24:32,340 --> 00:24:37,167
So classic on-site SEO,
things like keyword targeting, quality and
421
00:24:37,167 --> 00:24:41,834
uniqueness, crawl and bot friendliness,
snippet optimization,
422
00:24:41,834 --> 00:24:44,350
user experience, multi-device.
423
00:24:44,350 --> 00:24:48,410
That's not going anywhere,
at least not yet.
424
00:24:48,410 --> 00:24:51,820
But we got new ones,
relative click-through rate.
425
00:24:51,820 --> 00:24:56,606
If you can do what we kind of fake did for
426
00:24:56,606 --> 00:25:00,802
Serious Eats, [SOUND] wow, wow!
427
00:25:00,802 --> 00:25:02,565
Long clicks versus short clicks,
428
00:25:02,565 --> 00:25:06,389
man, if I can get more people spending
more time on my page than they are on my
429
00:25:06,389 --> 00:25:10,018
competitor's after they visit from
a search result, that's a win.
430
00:25:10,018 --> 00:25:15,780
That's on-site success,
short versus long click,
431
00:25:15,780 --> 00:25:21,740
content gap fulfillment, amplification and
loyalty, task completion success.
432
00:25:23,060 --> 00:25:26,230
This is new on-site SEO.
433
00:25:26,230 --> 00:25:29,620
These are like the factors that Google
has published research papers about and
434
00:25:29,620 --> 00:25:32,110
patents about and suggested that they
435
00:25:32,110 --> 00:25:36,770
might be using as their success
metrics in what might be used for
436
00:25:36,770 --> 00:25:39,510
that machine learning,
deep learning model for rankings.
437
00:25:41,988 --> 00:25:44,160
So I'm gonna talk through
these a little bit,
438
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,795
spend some time with these
five new on-site signals.
439
00:25:47,795 --> 00:25:49,821
Cuz I think you know
these ones really well.
440
00:25:56,106 --> 00:25:58,753
First up.
441
00:25:58,753 --> 00:26:02,793
How are we going to punch above
our average click-through rate?
442
00:26:05,357 --> 00:26:09,551
So if I look, and
we've done this for a while,
443
00:26:09,551 --> 00:26:13,114
because we wanted the traffic anyway.
444
00:26:13,114 --> 00:26:14,665
But when Google's talked about this,
445
00:26:14,665 --> 00:26:17,156
at least when they talked about
this in research and patents and
446
00:26:17,156 --> 00:26:19,758
that kind of stuff,
it's never absolute click-through rate.
447
00:26:19,758 --> 00:26:25,070
It's not that position number two needs to
get more clicks than position number one.
448
00:26:25,070 --> 00:26:30,510
It's that relative to an average
search that looks like this,
449
00:26:30,510 --> 00:26:33,020
are you over-performing?
450
00:26:33,020 --> 00:26:37,200
So, if I'm ranking number three, but
I have a higher than average click
451
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,450
through rate for the kind of search result
that I'm in, and I think this is where Dr.
452
00:26:41,450 --> 00:26:44,110
Pete's key word opportunity model and
453
00:26:44,110 --> 00:26:46,800
the key word opportunity
score is gonna be big.
454
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:51,420
And then click through rate stuff which
I'm working on, and I will try and get to
455
00:26:51,420 --> 00:26:55,650
you in the next few months an accurate
click through rate curve across devices.
456
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,509
In this case,
every element is gonna count.
457
00:27:01,220 --> 00:27:05,440
Everything here, so the title, URL,
458
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:10,890
if you get that brand drop down,
a lot of commercial queries.
459
00:27:10,890 --> 00:27:14,775
We're seeing that brand drop down be super
correlated with whether you rank high or
460
00:27:14,775 --> 00:27:16,698
don't, it's kinda ridiculous.
461
00:27:16,698 --> 00:27:22,930
Searchers recognize and wanna click
on your domain, all that brand stuff.
462
00:27:22,930 --> 00:27:23,940
Is your result fresh?
463
00:27:23,940 --> 00:27:27,210
Do searchers want something
that's newer than that?
464
00:27:27,210 --> 00:27:31,205
Does the description create curiosity,
encourage that click?
465
00:27:31,205 --> 00:27:34,410
Given that what happens in Google,
like we know that this happens in Google.
466
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:38,140
That a lot of times, you publish
new content, and they test it out.
467
00:27:38,140 --> 00:27:40,390
They like give you this
little test window.
468
00:27:40,390 --> 00:27:42,680
You can see there is actually a result
right now that is getting this
469
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,100
test window.
470
00:27:44,100 --> 00:27:46,980
If you do a search for,
it was just today so
471
00:27:46,980 --> 00:27:50,940
I didn't have time to put it in the deck
but it, how big is the solar system?
472
00:27:50,940 --> 00:27:53,136
You search for
how big is the solar system,
473
00:27:53,136 --> 00:27:56,440
there's this like one pixel crazy
visualization this guy did.
474
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,200
He did no SEO for it so like, it doesn't
even have the key words in the title or
475
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:04,680
anything like that, but it ranks because
Google's good at intent now, and
476
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:05,530
they're testing it.
477
00:28:05,530 --> 00:28:06,810
They're testing it on page one.
478
00:28:07,930 --> 00:28:10,400
If it gets lots of clicks, performs well,
I think it's gonna stay there.
479
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:11,920
If it doesn't, it'll fall off.
480
00:28:11,920 --> 00:28:16,770
So given that we know that,
I think it probably is gonna be worthwhile
481
00:28:16,770 --> 00:28:22,070
to think about repeated publication
on the same topic, same keywords
482
00:28:22,070 --> 00:28:26,180
until we sort of nail what our users want,
nail what our searchers want.
483
00:28:26,180 --> 00:28:29,790
And this isn't actually a bad thing from
a topic modelling perspective either,
484
00:28:29,790 --> 00:28:33,760
because remember that Google now cares
a lot about whether we're publishing
485
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:38,820
regularly on a topic in the associations
that Google makes between websites and
486
00:28:38,820 --> 00:28:42,569
topics, topics being collections
of keywords around a subject.
487
00:28:44,230 --> 00:28:47,250
I think, actually, another one
is driving up that click-through
488
00:28:47,250 --> 00:28:49,930
rate through branding or branded searches.
489
00:28:49,930 --> 00:28:54,160
Remember what Will talked about with
Wayfair, where they ran those TV ads.
490
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,090
The TV ad said, Google Wayfair Sofa Beds.
491
00:29:00,710 --> 00:29:02,930
Oh, that is so smart.
492
00:29:02,930 --> 00:29:04,160
Oh, that is so smart.
493
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:05,510
You know what?
494
00:29:05,510 --> 00:29:09,580
I almost guarantee that they read
the Google site quality patent
495
00:29:09,580 --> 00:29:11,760
before they bought those ads.
496
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:13,880
Cuz you know what this Google
site quality patent says?
497
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:19,469
It says that the percentage of
people who do a branded search
498
00:29:22,034 --> 00:29:26,997
Influence whether the brand in
that branded search is going to
499
00:29:26,997 --> 00:29:30,440
rank higher for the non-branded search.
500
00:29:31,470 --> 00:29:32,560
That's a quality signal.
501
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,670
Lots of people search for Trip Advisor
New York hotels, you know what,
502
00:29:35,670 --> 00:29:39,170
we should probably rank Trip Advisor
higher for New York hotels.
503
00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:42,000
Lots of people search for
Wayfair sofa beds.
504
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:46,740
We should probably rank Wayfair higher for
just sofa beds.
505
00:29:46,740 --> 00:29:48,070
Crazy.
506
00:29:48,070 --> 00:29:51,301
So, here's car insurance quotes.
507
00:29:51,301 --> 00:29:54,193
Oh, the number two Ad Spender
is number one and four.
508
00:29:54,193 --> 00:29:55,690
Number one Ad Spender's two.
509
00:29:55,690 --> 00:30:03,186
Number four Ad Spender #4,
3 Ad Spender, 5 Ad Spender.
510
00:30:03,186 --> 00:30:07,828
Do you think it could possibly be
the case that these are also the five
511
00:30:07,828 --> 00:30:11,100
companies that are absolutely
the best at SEO?
512
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:13,610
I don't think so.
513
00:30:14,820 --> 00:30:15,340
I don't buy that.
514
00:30:17,430 --> 00:30:21,929
I think their TV spend, their offline
spend, their brand spend, is directly
515
00:30:21,929 --> 00:30:26,429
influencing the searches that are being
performed, the click-through rate
516
00:30:26,429 --> 00:30:31,285
they're getting, the engagement they're
seeing, the trust users have in them.
517
00:30:31,285 --> 00:30:35,464
And therefore, secondarily
influencing their success metrics.
518
00:30:38,727 --> 00:30:43,360
With that Google Trends system,
you can see it, you can watch it.
519
00:30:45,230 --> 00:30:47,460
Pretty sweet, next time you see an ad for
520
00:30:47,460 --> 00:30:50,180
a company you don't know at all,
go check it out.
521
00:30:51,510 --> 00:30:54,080
Go see what that search volume's like and
then go check.
522
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,760
Go check, are they ranking well for
the non-branded query too?
523
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:00,020
Are they creeping up
after the big ad spend?
524
00:31:01,100 --> 00:31:03,480
I have a feeling, by the way,
one big ad dispenser trivago,
525
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,770
we've seen a bunch of ads from them,
I think they're gonna be creeping up.
526
00:31:08,455 --> 00:31:13,280
#2, beating out your fellow search
result residents on engagement.
527
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,720
So, pogo-sticking,
the long click short click stuff,
528
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:19,760
we know that this might determine
a lot of where you rank.
529
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:23,560
We've done the experiments,
we've seen it, Google's talked about it.
530
00:31:24,710 --> 00:31:26,470
What influences those?
531
00:31:26,470 --> 00:31:31,340
Well, the way that I think about this is,
we have a checklist, right?
532
00:31:31,340 --> 00:31:35,390
We've gotta fulfill two parts
of the searcher's needs,
533
00:31:35,390 --> 00:31:38,530
conscious and unconscious need.
534
00:31:38,530 --> 00:31:42,775
We have to fulfill speed because
people are clicking that back button,
535
00:31:42,775 --> 00:31:45,000
they're expecting more and more of us.
536
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:47,590
We've gotta deliver the best user
experience on every browser.
537
00:31:47,590 --> 00:31:50,870
We have to compel visitors
to go deeper into our site.
538
00:31:52,300 --> 00:31:55,880
And we've gotta avoid any features
that annoy or dissuade visitors.
539
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:01,537
I love this because I hope it means
that all those effing pop-ups
540
00:32:01,537 --> 00:32:04,674
that work will eventually
fall off of page one.
541
00:32:04,674 --> 00:32:05,370
That'll be so nice.
542
00:32:07,630 --> 00:32:13,360
For example, the New York Times
has gotten crazy smart about this.
543
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:17,950
Not only are they showing you visuals,
right, and a graph around this story.
544
00:32:17,950 --> 00:32:21,979
How does family income predict your
children's college success chances.
545
00:32:23,060 --> 00:32:25,110
They make you draw the graph.
546
00:32:26,740 --> 00:32:28,890
You draw the graph.
547
00:32:28,890 --> 00:32:30,240
Guess how long people spend on that page?
548
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:32,700
A long time.
549
00:32:32,700 --> 00:32:34,100
It's so engaging.
550
00:32:34,100 --> 00:32:39,910
It's so cool to see how my guess
matches up with the real data, insane.
551
00:32:41,390 --> 00:32:45,480
Here's VoilaNorbert,
which is one of my favorite email tools.
552
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,870
It's a great way to find anyone's
email address for anything, I love it.
553
00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:51,530
I actually paid for it, I totally use it.
554
00:32:52,810 --> 00:32:59,175
And they've got nothing, they just do
no SEO and oh man, there's no content.
555
00:32:59,175 --> 00:33:01,067
They just don't do anything,
but it doesn't matter.
556
00:33:01,067 --> 00:33:05,414
Cuz they get visitors to return again and
again and again, and engage, and
557
00:33:05,414 --> 00:33:07,910
it's very simple and the UI makes it easy.
558
00:33:07,910 --> 00:33:10,920
The payment process makes it super simple,
great tool.
559
00:33:12,210 --> 00:33:16,770
Or Nomadlist, which basically does
the absolute best job in their field.
560
00:33:16,770 --> 00:33:17,780
If you're looking for
561
00:33:17,780 --> 00:33:21,724
the best cities to work remote,
you couldn't find a better resource.
562
00:33:21,724 --> 00:33:29,910
#3, filling in the gaps in
your visitors' knowledge.
563
00:33:29,910 --> 00:33:32,965
So here we go.
564
00:33:32,965 --> 00:33:37,831
Hm, Google wants that content, right, that
will fulfill all the searchers' needs so
565
00:33:37,831 --> 00:33:40,742
that they don't need to come back and
search again.
566
00:33:40,742 --> 00:33:43,810
And of course Geoff has a few
ways to figure that out.
567
00:33:46,820 --> 00:33:50,840
So we've seen some discussion about this,
right?
568
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,530
Where essentially Google is
looking at topic modeling and
569
00:33:53,530 --> 00:33:58,140
saying hey, terms and phrases that
are connected to this particular keyword.
570
00:33:58,140 --> 00:34:02,740
When we see those present, it suggests
to us that this content is more
571
00:34:02,740 --> 00:34:07,960
comprehensive, more accurate, and
predicts a better searcher experience.
572
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,390
Right, so for example, if you wanna
try and rank for New York, but
573
00:34:11,390 --> 00:34:15,690
you do not mention Bronx,
Manhattan, New York City,
574
00:34:15,690 --> 00:34:19,600
Brooklyn, how relevant
to New York are you?
575
00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:23,280
And Google totally can figure this out.
576
00:34:25,190 --> 00:34:29,770
So if I'm trying to rank well for
natural language processing, but
577
00:34:29,770 --> 00:34:34,050
I don't have anything on the topics like
text classification or tokenization or
578
00:34:34,050 --> 00:34:37,630
parsing, question answering,
I might not get there.
579
00:34:40,150 --> 00:34:44,060
Matt Brown was on the stage,
he talked about the Moz Context API,
580
00:34:44,060 --> 00:34:47,790
that is our data scientists
team to do exactly this.
581
00:34:47,790 --> 00:34:51,640
Right, we wanna find what those terms and
phrases are, so
582
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:56,610
that you know what Google
is using in the topic
583
00:34:56,610 --> 00:35:01,740
modeling algorithm, and can successfully
target those on your pages.
584
00:35:03,380 --> 00:35:08,140
Until then, until this formally launches,
which hopefully won't be that long,
585
00:35:08,140 --> 00:35:11,620
you can check out two tools,
Alchemy API and MonkeyLearn.
586
00:35:11,620 --> 00:35:16,756
Which both do this and
I think Jean Luca mentioned Knipe,
587
00:35:16,756 --> 00:35:20,431
K-N-I-P-E, which also does this.
588
00:35:20,431 --> 00:35:24,400
#4, this is a weird one.
589
00:35:25,500 --> 00:35:26,950
It's weird because it's like, gosh,
590
00:35:26,950 --> 00:35:29,530
does Google really care about
sharing an amplification?
591
00:35:29,530 --> 00:35:31,500
Is that something that's
important to them?
592
00:35:31,500 --> 00:35:36,180
Well, you know what, I see this a lot,
I know you guys see this a lot.
593
00:35:36,180 --> 00:35:38,875
You see a lot of these pages that
have not yet gotten links or
594
00:35:38,875 --> 00:35:40,306
just don't have links at all.
595
00:35:40,306 --> 00:35:43,401
But they've gotten a lot
of social engagement and
596
00:35:43,401 --> 00:35:48,270
they seem to rank ridiculously well,
they just over perform.
597
00:35:48,270 --> 00:35:52,570
I know Google says they don't
use social signals directly and
598
00:35:52,570 --> 00:35:54,564
honestly, I believe them.
599
00:35:54,564 --> 00:35:58,380
It's just that examples like these
make a lot of SEOs suspicious.
600
00:35:58,380 --> 00:36:01,742
Right, like we have this, how,
if they don't use social signals then,
601
00:36:01,742 --> 00:36:04,308
social seems to be the only
thing that's going on here.
602
00:36:04,308 --> 00:36:08,450
They're not doing great SEO from
the keyword front or on-site.
603
00:36:08,450 --> 00:36:10,700
They're not doing a great
amount of link building.
604
00:36:10,700 --> 00:36:11,469
Well, what is it?
605
00:36:12,820 --> 00:36:18,252
Even for
insanely competitive keywords, right?
606
00:36:18,252 --> 00:36:20,976
Man, why is it that this
thing that just did so
607
00:36:20,976 --> 00:36:25,610
well on Facebook seems to rank for
hyper competitive keywords?
608
00:36:25,610 --> 00:36:27,770
I think Google is telling us the truth.
609
00:36:27,770 --> 00:36:29,850
I don't think they're actually
using the raw shares,
610
00:36:29,850 --> 00:36:33,230
I don't think they're actually, that they
care all that much about the numbers.
611
00:36:33,230 --> 00:36:38,180
I think they look more at engagement,
right?
612
00:36:38,180 --> 00:36:41,970
They could use so many things to get
the data that mimics social shares.
613
00:36:41,970 --> 00:36:45,010
Clickstream data from Chrome and
Android, engagement data,
614
00:36:45,010 --> 00:36:49,620
branded queries from search, sure,
navigational queries, why not?
615
00:36:49,620 --> 00:36:52,860
Rate of link growth,
which correlates very nicely with social.
616
00:36:54,210 --> 00:36:57,590
Well, I don't care, kinda don't care.
617
00:36:57,590 --> 00:37:01,300
I care personally, just because
I have to know how Google works,
618
00:37:01,300 --> 00:37:02,857
it's in my fiber of my DNA.
619
00:37:02,857 --> 00:37:05,999
But I just want to rank like
them if I'm a marketer.
620
00:37:08,290 --> 00:37:10,070
I think Google almost certainly,
by the way,
621
00:37:10,070 --> 00:37:12,210
classifies different search
results differently.
622
00:37:12,210 --> 00:37:14,240
So in your industry, in your field,
623
00:37:14,240 --> 00:37:17,130
around your topics and keywords,
they might not actually care.
624
00:37:17,130 --> 00:37:20,960
When it comes to medical stuff,
I bet they don't care at all.
625
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,300
I bet they totally
disconnect these things.
626
00:37:23,300 --> 00:37:25,560
And this is another interesting
thing about a machine learning or
627
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:26,730
deep learning model.
628
00:37:26,730 --> 00:37:31,174
A machine learning model is gonna learn,
hey, not a successful search result
629
00:37:31,174 --> 00:37:34,424
in health, yes a successful
search result in politics.
630
00:37:36,816 --> 00:37:40,976
So, for us, raw shares and links,
those, eh, they might be okay metrics,
631
00:37:40,976 --> 00:37:43,930
especially if you're doing
social media marketing.
632
00:37:43,930 --> 00:37:47,630
But, if the competition is
naturally earning them faster,
633
00:37:47,630 --> 00:37:49,590
you're kinda out of luck, right?
634
00:37:49,590 --> 00:37:53,330
So if these guys are getting ten new
shares a day and I'm only getting four,
635
00:37:53,330 --> 00:37:55,230
I don't have long.
636
00:37:55,230 --> 00:37:56,360
My life span's limited.
637
00:37:57,490 --> 00:38:00,500
And Google probably doesn't just wanna
see shares, they wanna see shares that
638
00:38:00,500 --> 00:38:05,730
result in engagement, loyalty,
returning visits, those kinda things.
639
00:38:05,730 --> 00:38:10,380
So I think this is a metric
that I would like to use,
640
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,220
which is unique visits divided
by my shares and links.
641
00:38:14,220 --> 00:38:16,700
The percentage of my visitors,
of my visits,
642
00:38:16,700 --> 00:38:20,210
that are doing some sort of
amplification of any kind.
643
00:38:22,450 --> 00:38:25,190
That is probably a very
good way to measure
644
00:38:25,190 --> 00:38:29,029
where I'm having great success from
an amplification rate perspective.
645
00:38:30,380 --> 00:38:33,505
And the second one is total visitor
sessions divided by number of returning
646
00:38:33,505 --> 00:38:34,600
cuz that tells me loyalty.
647
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:40,060
Right, am I doing a good job earning
back the visitors who came to me one,
648
00:38:40,060 --> 00:38:42,640
two, three, four,
five times, whatever it is.
649
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,800
If we know what our audience and
their influencers share and
650
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,349
we measure those things,
we can improve them.
651
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:51,836
This poor bastard.
652
00:38:51,836 --> 00:38:58,920
>> [LAUGH]
>> My god, I mean, that's loyalty.
653
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:05,350
Tragic loyalty, at the end he just sort
of puts his head down and cries but.
654
00:39:05,350 --> 00:39:10,980
We don't need better content for
this, we need 10x content.
655
00:39:12,970 --> 00:39:15,270
A number of presenters have
talked about 10x content.
656
00:39:16,430 --> 00:39:21,390
I'm very passionate about this,
I think this is the wrong question to ask.
657
00:39:21,390 --> 00:39:22,750
How do we make something as good as that?
658
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:25,510
Don't ask, wrong question!
659
00:39:25,510 --> 00:39:29,161
How do we make something 10
times better than any of these?
660
00:39:32,214 --> 00:39:34,663
Gonna need that 10x content.
661
00:39:34,663 --> 00:39:39,246
That's how we're gonna get that loyalty,
that engagement, that higher sharing and
662
00:39:39,246 --> 00:39:43,327
amplification rate, that higher
click-through rate, build that brand,
663
00:39:43,327 --> 00:39:45,412
get those output metrics that we need.
664
00:39:45,412 --> 00:39:50,362
10x content, I think it's the only way
that we're gonna stand out from this
665
00:39:50,362 --> 00:39:52,167
increasingly noisy crowd.
666
00:39:52,167 --> 00:39:58,540
Oops, because the top 10% of
content gets all the shares.
667
00:39:58,540 --> 00:40:02,290
That's the bottom 75% down there.
668
00:40:02,290 --> 00:40:04,820
No shares, no links.
669
00:40:04,820 --> 00:40:06,120
Why bother making it?
670
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:07,220
Why did I hit publish?
671
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,740
None of our old school tactics
are gonna get this done, right?
672
00:40:12,810 --> 00:40:15,671
None of our old school on-site,
none of our old school off-site.
673
00:40:15,671 --> 00:40:16,880
These are all inputs.
674
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:18,130
They're not gone, they're not dead.
675
00:40:18,130 --> 00:40:20,400
I'm not even sure they're
gonna go away entirely,
676
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,740
but they're not gonna get us to 10x.
677
00:40:23,970 --> 00:40:25,250
Last one.
678
00:40:25,250 --> 00:40:29,480
Fulfilling the searcher's task.
679
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:35,870
Not the searcher's query, the searcher's
task, what they are trying to accomplish.
680
00:40:35,870 --> 00:40:37,850
So Google is public about this, right?
681
00:40:37,850 --> 00:40:40,760
They want to get searchers
accomplishing their task faster.
682
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:41,985
And what do we do when we search?
683
00:40:41,985 --> 00:40:47,370
Like planning a vacation, or
I'm making a very big considered purchase.
684
00:40:47,370 --> 00:40:51,160
I do a broad search, I do a website visit,
a narrow search, an even narrower search.
685
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,800
This is what you do when you plan
a vacation or buy a house or
686
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:58,989
a motorcycle or a new laptop, or
decide which new phone you're gonna get.
687
00:41:01,710 --> 00:41:03,980
Google wants to be a Star Trek computer.
688
00:41:03,980 --> 00:41:07,270
They want to take you from,
you did a broad search, I'm gonna show you
689
00:41:07,270 --> 00:41:11,830
all the sites or answers that you probably
would have visited along that path so
690
00:41:11,830 --> 00:41:13,440
that you can complete your task directly.
691
00:41:14,580 --> 00:41:15,869
So you don't have to do it again and
again.
692
00:41:18,250 --> 00:41:22,200
If Google sees that a lot of people
who perform these types of queries,
693
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:25,680
best ramen noodles, instant noodle brands,
tastiest packaged noodles,
694
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:30,543
eventually end their queries after
they get to The Ramen Rater.
695
00:41:31,610 --> 00:41:34,350
Brilliant Seattle website,
all he does is stay home all day and
696
00:41:34,350 --> 00:41:35,269
eat packaged noodles.
697
00:41:36,660 --> 00:41:37,535
He is a hero.
698
00:41:37,535 --> 00:41:43,580
>> [LAUGH]
>> Also I worry about his salt levels,
699
00:41:43,580 --> 00:41:44,610
but hero.
700
00:41:46,270 --> 00:41:48,590
They might use the clickstream
data to help figure this out.
701
00:41:48,590 --> 00:41:50,670
Even if it has no
traditional ranking signals.
702
00:41:50,670 --> 00:41:54,580
And I see so many search results where
people are like, what is going on there?
703
00:41:54,580 --> 00:41:58,360
I'm like, well, does that answer the task,
not just the query,
704
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:00,720
but the task better than anyone else?
705
00:42:00,720 --> 00:42:02,710
A lot of the time it does.
706
00:42:02,710 --> 00:42:05,310
Ho oh, you better believe they're
getting it and storing it.
707
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:09,840
You look at Chrome, they're basically
like, look, when your finger touches
708
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:14,949
the keyboard we own the DNA of
your ancestors, so it's ours now.
709
00:42:17,230 --> 00:42:20,160
If you got a page that answers
the searcher's initial query,
710
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:23,120
that might not be enough, right?
711
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:30,302
If I'm looking for Adventure Time comics,
I'm probably looking to complete a task.
712
00:42:30,302 --> 00:42:35,902
And there's only one website that really
gets me to complete that entire task.
713
00:42:35,902 --> 00:42:38,037
And that is these folks, Kaboom Studios,
714
00:42:38,037 --> 00:42:40,980
who actually make all
the Adventure Time comics.
715
00:42:40,980 --> 00:42:44,730
Amazon doesn't carry a big enough
selection, eBay doesn't have it.
716
00:42:44,730 --> 00:42:48,420
These guys, no offense, but
they suck at SEO, like classic SEO,
717
00:42:48,420 --> 00:42:50,005
they're just terrible.
718
00:42:50,005 --> 00:42:54,960
There's a duplicate version of every page
times ten, and the navigation's a mess.
719
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,305
User experience is not great.
720
00:42:56,305 --> 00:42:58,357
They're even ranked number one on mobile,
and
721
00:42:58,357 --> 00:43:01,394
they are the least mobile-friendly
site I've seen since the 90s.
722
00:43:03,634 --> 00:43:07,070
Gang, we're in a two-algorithm world.
723
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:13,040
The old algorithm is still powerful,
still important.
724
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:16,070
You can still win with it,
you can still rank with it.
725
00:43:17,490 --> 00:43:19,370
That algo is Google's input.
726
00:43:20,830 --> 00:43:23,799
But algo two,
that Google is starting to care about,
727
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,470
is the subset of humanity that's
gonna interact with your content and
728
00:43:29,470 --> 00:43:32,810
interact with your queries and
the tasks that they want to accomplish.
729
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:39,640
Let me show you some advice that I
hear all the time after a presentation
730
00:43:39,640 --> 00:43:41,970
like this, and I hate.
731
00:43:43,540 --> 00:43:47,330
It is a totally wrong
interpretation of what I mean here.
732
00:43:48,820 --> 00:43:52,730
Well, you know what, I think Rand's just
saying we should make pages for people,
733
00:43:52,730 --> 00:43:53,560
not engines.
734
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,330
That is terrible advice.
735
00:43:55,330 --> 00:44:00,780
Terrible, awful, miserable advice, that
a content marker who hates SEO and doesn't
736
00:44:00,780 --> 00:44:05,490
want anything to do with our field, wants
to believe in the unicorn rainbow world.
737
00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:10,880
And maybe, no offense, I mean,
I get it, but that's terrible advice.
738
00:44:11,990 --> 00:44:13,430
That's engines, that's people.
739
00:44:15,590 --> 00:44:16,410
Gotta do both.
740
00:44:17,990 --> 00:44:20,010
Outputs and inputs.
741
00:44:21,130 --> 00:44:23,824
These two things are on-site SEO.
742
00:44:26,944 --> 00:44:30,309
That's the world we're living in today.
743
00:44:30,309 --> 00:44:35,157
All right, I'm technically over time, but
I'm gonna go into my bonus round anyway.
744
00:44:35,157 --> 00:44:36,805
Bonus time!
745
00:44:36,805 --> 00:44:40,110
>> [APPLAUSE]
>> All right, bonus number one.
746
00:44:40,110 --> 00:44:43,110
If you hear me and a bunch of other
presenters talk about 10X content and
747
00:44:43,110 --> 00:44:46,570
you're like, show me,
show me the 10X content.
748
00:44:46,570 --> 00:44:48,280
All right, I got something for you.
749
00:44:49,330 --> 00:44:54,210
If you go to bit.ly/10X,
that's a capital X, 10Xcontent,
750
00:44:54,210 --> 00:44:57,840
you will find my personal
list of 10X content,
751
00:44:57,840 --> 00:45:01,650
what I talk about when I
talk about 10X content.
752
00:45:01,650 --> 00:45:02,900
And I'll keep this list updated.
753
00:45:02,900 --> 00:45:04,210
I keep adding to it all the time.
754
00:45:04,210 --> 00:45:06,060
I think I got 30 or
40 entries in there now.
755
00:45:07,890 --> 00:45:10,620
If you have some content you think
that I should put on the list,
756
00:45:10,620 --> 00:45:11,150
please let me know.
757
00:45:12,490 --> 00:45:16,500
Second, those MonkeyLearn guys,
they heard I was gonna mention them,
758
00:45:16,500 --> 00:45:17,240
they reached out.
759
00:45:17,240 --> 00:45:22,430
And they said, you know, we can build
a tool that might be helpful for you.
760
00:45:22,430 --> 00:45:27,406
So they took their machine learning algo
for topic modeling and if you plug in your
761
00:45:27,406 --> 00:45:32,305
URL in a search query, and which engine
you want, they'll go scrape the top ten
762
00:45:32,305 --> 00:45:37,302
of Google, pull out all the keywords of
the top ten and compare that to your page.
763
00:45:37,302 --> 00:45:40,654
Pretty sweet.
764
00:45:40,654 --> 00:45:44,805
I'll be honest, in the Moz context API is
actually better than what MonkeyLearn has
765
00:45:44,805 --> 00:45:48,090
right now, but it's really cool
that they built this tool for us.
766
00:45:48,090 --> 00:45:51,070
And I think you can find some
awesome stuff through there, and
767
00:45:51,070 --> 00:45:52,560
it'll save you a ton of time.
768
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,420
If you went through the posts
that John Luca talked about,
769
00:45:55,420 --> 00:45:58,820
that walks you through the whole
process of doing it manually.
770
00:45:58,820 --> 00:46:01,800
This is the automatic way to do that.
771
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,730
And this is not on the slide deck online,
so
772
00:46:03,730 --> 00:46:05,930
I need, oops, go back, go back, all right.
773
00:46:05,930 --> 00:46:11,310
So I need your promise,
your solemn promise, that you will
774
00:46:13,490 --> 00:46:20,360
not tweet it, that you will not use
a Wi-Fi connected laptop or desktop.
775
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,055
Nobody brought their desktop,
that's crazy.
776
00:46:22,055 --> 00:46:25,110
>> [LAUGH]
>> There's one person here who's like, oh,
777
00:46:25,110 --> 00:46:26,530
I have it.
778
00:46:26,530 --> 00:46:31,938
Or your mobile device, you have to
use just your cell phone on your 3G,
779
00:46:31,938 --> 00:46:34,900
4G wireless, whatever, LTE and
780
00:46:34,900 --> 00:46:40,060
we can perform the long click,
short click test if you guys want.
781
00:46:40,060 --> 00:46:44,700
So if you're up for it, not tweeting,
not sharing, just doing it.
782
00:46:44,700 --> 00:46:47,380
We have enough people in this room,
we should be able to repeat it.
783
00:46:47,380 --> 00:46:50,750
You guys want to do that and we can
check the results at the party tonight?
784
00:46:50,750 --> 00:46:52,000
All right, let's do it.
785
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:52,654
Here you go.
786
00:46:55,415 --> 00:47:01,180
The query is gonna be for
smoking deer shirt.
787
00:47:01,180 --> 00:47:05,190
As you can see here,
this result, from Jon Wye,
788
00:47:05,190 --> 00:47:10,540
which is pictured over there, clearly the
vastly superior result to these top three.
789
00:47:10,540 --> 00:47:13,673
And a lot of you asked what
T-shirt I was wearing on day one,
790
00:47:13,673 --> 00:47:15,830
the jackalope, that came from Jon Wye.
791
00:47:15,830 --> 00:47:17,190
He doesn't really do SEO, but
792
00:47:17,190 --> 00:47:19,950
he's this awesome little independent
designer in Washington DC,
793
00:47:19,950 --> 00:47:24,150
one man show, exactly the kind of small
business guy you'd wanna support.
794
00:47:24,150 --> 00:47:29,400
So Amazon, local company, I love them,
they don't need to rank here.
795
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:33,170
Really, they just don't, doesn't matter.
796
00:47:33,170 --> 00:47:34,510
Click them, click back.
797
00:47:34,510 --> 00:47:38,940
As soon as the page loads in full
just click on them, then click back.
798
00:47:38,940 --> 00:47:40,648
Remember, not on a Wi-Fi device.
799
00:47:40,648 --> 00:47:47,190
Then click on Jon Wye's first result
there, men's smoking deer shirt.
800
00:47:48,300 --> 00:47:49,260
Stay on his site.
801
00:47:49,260 --> 00:47:50,660
Do not go back to Google.
802
00:47:50,660 --> 00:47:53,420
Click around a little bit,
stay on the site, browse,
803
00:47:53,420 --> 00:47:54,440
close your browser or whatever.
804
00:47:55,580 --> 00:47:58,650
Try and spend like 20,
30, 40 seconds on there.
805
00:47:58,650 --> 00:48:03,119
If we do that, if my predictions are
right, somewhere between 45 minutes and
806
00:48:03,119 --> 00:48:07,321
an hour an a half from now, we should
see a result that we've seen a few times
807
00:48:07,321 --> 00:48:10,683
previously, which is that this
guy will move up to the top.
808
00:48:10,683 --> 00:48:15,240
Then someone from Google will get pissed
about it and find out and shut it down.
809
00:48:15,240 --> 00:48:17,254
Or maybe that's just
built into the algorithm.
810
00:48:17,254 --> 00:48:19,445
I don't know, I can't say for certain.
811
00:48:19,445 --> 00:48:21,880
Should be fascinating to find out.
812
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:26,070
And with that, thank you very much,
it's been great to have you all here.
813
00:48:26,070 --> 00:48:34,888
>> [APPLAUSE]
>> Okay,
814
00:48:34,888 --> 00:48:38,220
we are over time, but we want to do a few
questions, if that's okay with you.
815
00:48:38,220 --> 00:48:39,430
>> Please, let's bring it on.
816
00:48:39,430 --> 00:48:43,310
>> First of all, I want to ask where will
we find out the results of this test?
817
00:48:43,310 --> 00:48:46,516
>> So the Imac Labs Crew,
Eric, Mark, Dave McCollough,
818
00:48:46,516 --> 00:48:49,535
they're all watching this,
they'll let us know.
819
00:48:49,535 --> 00:48:53,410
And we'll be publishing data about this
and the previous test as well, so.
820
00:48:53,410 --> 00:48:55,012
>> Follow Rand on Twitter,
he'll tell [CROSSTALK]
821
00:48:55,012 --> 00:48:55,792
>> Yeah, we'll get it to you.
822
00:48:55,792 --> 00:48:59,708
>> Okay, first question from Ryan Glass,
who, if memory serves, works for
823
00:48:59,708 --> 00:49:02,880
U-Haul and
will help us all move to Seattle.
824
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:07,250
Ryan asked, how much will deep learning
actually impact results for all users,
825
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:12,869
or will they have a much
deeper learning set per user?
826
00:49:14,490 --> 00:49:17,320
>> If I had to guess, and this is gonna
be pure guess because I can't say for
827
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:21,010
certain, it will be a little from
column a and a little from column b.
828
00:49:21,010 --> 00:49:24,380
I expect it to influence the broader
results because I think Google has talked
829
00:49:24,380 --> 00:49:26,891
publicly about the fact that
they're now using machine learning,
830
00:49:26,891 --> 00:49:28,980
deep learning, in search results.
831
00:49:28,980 --> 00:49:29,890
I mean, Penguin,
832
00:49:29,890 --> 00:49:33,270
they talked about how Penguin was built
on a machine learning infrastructure.
833
00:49:33,270 --> 00:49:34,570
Panda, same story.
834
00:49:34,570 --> 00:49:40,120
So we're gonna see it influence all
results and personalized results.
835
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,310
>> Okay, we had a couple
questions on this topic, so
836
00:49:42,310 --> 00:49:45,830
I'm gonna pick one from Arman Sargansian.
837
00:49:45,830 --> 00:49:49,209
Sorry, I slaughtered that,
Arman, thank you.
838
00:49:49,209 --> 00:49:53,352
How can Google track user engagement
across the domain if the visitor isn't on
839
00:49:53,352 --> 00:49:55,935
Chrome or
if there isn't GA code on the website?
840
00:49:55,935 --> 00:49:56,986
Are they using Google analytics?
841
00:49:56,986 --> 00:49:58,986
How is Google tracking [INAUDIBLE]?
842
00:49:58,986 --> 00:50:03,468
>> Well, so If it's not Chrome,
it's Android.
843
00:50:03,468 --> 00:50:07,540
If it's not Chrome and Android,
I don't actually think they're using GA.
844
00:50:07,540 --> 00:50:10,280
I don't think they're using GA at all,
I totally believe them when they say we
845
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:14,240
don't track GA data and
then use that in rankings, I believe that.
846
00:50:14,240 --> 00:50:18,280
However, they also have a ton
of infrastructure and ISP's and
847
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:21,210
can get it that way, and
can buy data from ISP's if they want.
848
00:50:21,210 --> 00:50:24,310
They also can get a ton of it from
the free Wi-Fi that they offer.
849
00:50:24,310 --> 00:50:27,240
Like, they enough coverage that
they don't need everybody.
850
00:50:27,240 --> 00:50:29,140
It's not like they have to also go and
851
00:50:29,140 --> 00:50:32,940
get everything that happens on
Apple devices or Microsoft devices.
852
00:50:32,940 --> 00:50:36,100
They just need the percent that they have,
which is over 60%.
853
00:50:36,100 --> 00:50:38,710
>> Okay,
you talked about click through rates.
854
00:50:38,710 --> 00:50:41,520
Matthew Barnett, Rand,
what's your process for
855
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,500
evaluating and
analyzing organic click through rates?
856
00:50:44,500 --> 00:50:46,060
Are there tools for that?
857
00:50:46,060 --> 00:50:46,760
>> Yes.
858
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:47,380
>> Oh.
859
00:50:47,380 --> 00:50:51,030
>> I didn't know about them until
just now, but yes there are.
860
00:50:51,030 --> 00:50:53,090
You can find out the click
through rate for
861
00:50:53,090 --> 00:50:58,700
a particular SERP, if it's a popular
enough search query, from SimilarWeb.
862
00:50:58,700 --> 00:51:02,190
Go to SimilarWeb, sign up for
their pro tool, those guys have
863
00:51:02,190 --> 00:51:06,340
the ability to show you how much traffic
is going to each of the sites and
864
00:51:06,340 --> 00:51:09,540
pages that show up in a given result.
865
00:51:09,540 --> 00:51:12,310
It blew my mind when I saw it on Monday.
866
00:51:12,310 --> 00:51:14,630
Congrats to them,
their panel is outstanding.
867
00:51:14,630 --> 00:51:17,890
It's like 50 million desktop and
laptop users.
868
00:51:17,890 --> 00:51:18,860
50 million mobile.
869
00:51:18,860 --> 00:51:20,960
So you can see click-through
rates on both.
870
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,450
>> Yeah, we just partnered with
them on a study that's going to be
871
00:51:23,450 --> 00:51:24,205
coming out really soon.
872
00:51:24,205 --> 00:51:26,924
>> [INAUDIBLE] Hey, sorry to bug you.
873
00:51:26,924 --> 00:51:29,140
I think you can use
Jon Why's site to find that.
874
00:51:29,140 --> 00:51:30,750
>> Oh, sorry Jon.
875
00:51:30,750 --> 00:51:33,205
>> So yeah,
we might have killed that site.
876
00:51:33,205 --> 00:51:36,040
[APPLAUSE]
>> Yeah.
877
00:51:38,090 --> 00:51:42,505
You know what, I'll give him a call and
send him some better web hosting.
878
00:51:42,505 --> 00:51:45,580
[LAUGH]
>> So
879
00:51:45,580 --> 00:51:46,500
here's a really-
>> Thanks, [CROSSTALK]
880
00:51:46,500 --> 00:51:48,660
>> relevant question regarding that.
881
00:51:48,660 --> 00:51:53,050
Jack Boland asks, isn't the real test
to buy the smoking gear shirt and
882
00:51:53,050 --> 00:51:54,680
complete a task?
883
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:55,690
>> Yes.
Absolutely.
884
00:51:55,690 --> 00:51:59,950
So I think Google is using
what I would say today, right,
885
00:51:59,950 --> 00:52:03,710
with the long click versus short click,
that's an unsophisticated model.
886
00:52:03,710 --> 00:52:05,450
And I think they're gonna get more and
more sophisticated,
887
00:52:05,450 --> 00:52:09,760
just as we saw the queries and clicks test
stop working or be much harder to do.
888
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,820
It doesn't stop working but you need like
so many people in such a big distributed
889
00:52:13,820 --> 00:52:16,500
geography to make that work now,
that it's really hard.
890
00:52:16,500 --> 00:52:18,760
I got it to work in like,
one conference in Europe that was huge.
891
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:19,770
That was it.
892
00:52:19,770 --> 00:52:23,510
So, I think that the next step for
them is the long click, short click,
893
00:52:23,510 --> 00:52:28,160
and then eventually, it'll be that like,
bigger loyalty task completion engagement,
894
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:29,099
and all that kind of stuff.
895
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:33,630
>> Okay, so
here's a philosophical question.
896
00:52:33,630 --> 00:52:38,460
Tyler Frosh, what's Google's goal with
trying to get people's tasks done faster
897
00:52:38,460 --> 00:52:40,510
if their revenue is
based on ad impressions?
898
00:52:40,510 --> 00:52:42,560
Seems like there's two
things going on there.
899
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:44,950
>> Yeah, I totally agree with that.
900
00:52:44,950 --> 00:52:47,090
So, that goes right to my intro talk,
which is,
901
00:52:47,090 --> 00:52:50,200
Google believes in disrupting itself.
902
00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,460
They want to shut down
their own operations.
903
00:52:52,460 --> 00:52:54,790
Google wants to be the thing
that kills Google.
904
00:52:54,790 --> 00:52:57,030
And I think that goes
exactly to that point, right?
905
00:52:57,030 --> 00:52:58,340
They're essentially saying, hey,
906
00:52:58,340 --> 00:53:02,800
you know what, we are willing to sacrifice
huge amounts of ad revenues to directly
907
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,040
drive a visitor when they start
typing into their mobile phone.
908
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:10,420
And suggest a URL, before we can show them
your super valuable ads that could send
909
00:53:10,420 --> 00:53:13,020
them to the same URL and
give us $80 a click.
910
00:53:13,020 --> 00:53:15,760
The fact that they were
willing to do that says to me,
911
00:53:15,760 --> 00:53:18,340
this is all about user experience,
keeping searchers,
912
00:53:18,340 --> 00:53:21,185
getting more searches per searcher,
and more user happiness.
913
00:53:21,185 --> 00:53:23,210
>> Okay, I got to read this one.
914
00:53:23,210 --> 00:53:29,840
Aaron Ballard, I joined Twitter just
to ask, Ran Fish, can we take a selfie?
915
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:30,358
My first tweet.
916
00:53:30,358 --> 00:53:38,570
[LAUGHTER] [APPLAUSE]
>> So
917
00:53:38,570 --> 00:53:43,030
as Ruth said, yes you can take a selfie
with me, absolutely, but you should just
918
00:53:43,030 --> 00:53:46,210
make sure that you network with all
of the amazing, awesome people here.
919
00:53:46,210 --> 00:53:50,300
Cuz I'm just kind of like a Nebashi
moustached weirdo who happens to be
920
00:53:50,300 --> 00:53:54,900
crazy about making Google transparent,
but yes, let's take a selfie for sure.
921
00:53:54,900 --> 00:53:58,130
>> Okay so please stay on stage,
that's gonna do it for Q&A.
922
00:53:58,130 --> 00:54:01,890
I want to let everybody know, I know some
of you have flights, for those gonna be in
923
00:54:01,890 --> 00:54:05,939
town tonight, we're going to the Garage,
I believe it starts around seven o'clock.
924
00:54:07,450 --> 00:54:08,910
Yes, looking at Jen.
925
00:54:08,910 --> 00:54:12,400
Be sure to bring an I.D.
or a passport if you're international,
926
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:16,280
they check every one of those and
you will not get in unless you do.
927
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:21,200
And before we go I want to thank everybody
here, this has been an amazing experience,
928
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,615
can we give ourselves a round of
applause for everybody in this room?
929
00:54:23,615 --> 00:54:26,675
[APPLAUSE] This has been fantastic.
930
00:54:26,675 --> 00:54:32,560
[APPLAUSE]
>> And
931
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:33,750
we'll see you tonight at the garage.
932
00:54:33,750 --> 00:54:37,115
And please lift one more round of
applause, Mr Rand Fishkin, whoo!
933
00:54:37,115 --> 00:54:39,980
>> [APPLAUSE]