Monday, October 19, 2015

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: Week SEVEN Review According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the third CFB SBPI installment of the 2015
season.To read more about how I
calculate my ratings look back at last
week's entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through
action on Saturday October 17.The
columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128
teams in the FBS; we also include the AP Poll, USA Today Poll, ESPN’s FPI &
Sagarin’s rankings which can all be used as a solid comparison tool followed by
each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

AP

USAT

FPI

SAG

RATING

RANK

Alabama

36

4

2

8

8

3

1

281.0

1

Iowa

18

11

2

12

13

29

15

262.1

2

Clemson

32

7

5

6

6

11

6

257.2

3

Utah

22

34

19

3

7

17

7

250.7

4

Stanford

5

42

17

10

11

10

8

247.7

5

LSU

18

27

15

5

5

7

10

244.9

6

Oklahoma

24

22

15

17

15

4

4

244.4

7

Florida

61

18

22

13

14

12

13

242.7

8

Georgia

41

13

9

31

25

16

11

240.1

9

Notre Dame

8

49

21

11

10

8

9

239.8

10

TCU

2

43

7

4

3

2

3

238.9

11

Boise State

56

5

6

34

41

25

25

238.6

12

California

16

38

19

20

19

24

22

237.1

13

Florida State

10

29

9

9

9

15

12

231.3

14

Arkansas

16

76

40

27

42

228.5

15

West Virginia

20

53

34

26

28

226.7

16

Pittsburgh

67

17

25

25

28

45

35

226.5

17

Michigan

92

1

28

15

17

18

14

226.2

18

Ohio State

36

18

13

1

1

5

5

225.8

19

USC

22

59

36

6

16

224.6

20

Michigan State

28

36

25

7

4

22

20

217.5

21

Wisconsin

65

6

13

34

27

30

21

217.3

22

Oklahoma State

48

20

22

14

12

20

18

216.1

23

Utah State

87

8

32

36

35

53

33

214.9

24

Tennessee

33

67

46

13

23

214.1

25

Breakdown of Top
25 by conference:

AAC

0

ACC

3

B10

5

B12

4

CUSA

0

IND

1

MAC

0

MWC

2

P12

4

SEC

6

SUN

0

Here are
additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked
inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other four sources I use for
comparative purposes:

#27 Baylor (#2 AP, #2 USAT, #1 FPI, #2 SAG)

#28 Mississippi State (#21 FPI, #24 SAG)

#32 Houston (#21 AP, #22 USAT)

#33 Ole Miss (#24 AP, #23 USAT, #9 FPI, #19 SAG)

#34 Memphis (#18 AP, #17 USAT)

#36 Texas A&M (#15 AP, #16 USAT, #14 FPI, #17 SAG)

#38 Duke (#23 AP, #21 USAT)

#39 North Carolina (#23 FPI)

#40 UCLA (#19 FPI)

#41 Temple (#22 AP, #24 USAT)

#51 Toledo (#19 AP, #20 USAT)

Let’s take a look
at the relationship between SBPI & record in matrix form (currently there
is a 77% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins, UP from 71% last week):

# OF SBPI TEAMS WITH RECORDS

Record

Top 25

Top 50

7-0

4

4

6-1

5

9

6-1

3

3

5-1

4

8

5-2

4

8

4-2

1

5

3-3

3

6

3-4

4

2-4

1

2

2-5

1

So of the Top 25 SBPI teams 9 are undefeated, 16 have at
worst one loss & just 1 is under .500 Arkansas, who has played the 2nd
toughest schedule in the country which boosts their rating – if we remove SOS
& simply judge strength on performance Arkansas is 40th (3rd
numerical column in first matrix).Of
the SBPI Top 50 almost half (24) of the group has a one or zero losses.The SBPI, and looking at it in this sort of
breakdown, can add value by seeing which teams have suffered perhaps from “bad
luck” so far [playing better football than their record indicates], or teams
that may have been “lucky” this year [rating lower on the SBPI scale than their
record suggests].

Here are the five
lowest rated SBPI teams that have a winning record:

#105 New Mexico 4-3

#92 Marshall 6-1

#88 Georgia Southern 5-1

#84 Washington State 4-2

#82 Auburn 4-2

Strength of each
conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:

SEC

81.42

IND

79.52

ACC

79.46

P12

79.02

B10

78.23

B12

76.70

AAC

72.56

MWC

70.97

MAC

70.61

CUSA

67.13

SUN

64.59

Next up let’s look
at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

CONF

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

SAG

RATING

RANK

MWC

Boise State

56

5

6

25

238.6

12

MWC

Utah State

87

8

32

33

214.9

24

AAC

Houston

3

29

2

41

204.3

32

AAC

Memphis

4

78

30

30

203.6

34

IND

BYU

80

39

55

36

203.0

35

AAC

Temple

69

3

11

50

195.6

41

SB

Appalachian State

7

8

1

62

195.6

42

AAC

South Florida

46

43

42

80

191.1

44

MAC

Central Michigan

48

53

49

81

184.7

49

MAC

Toledo

39

33

27

38

184.0

51

Here are the
Bottom 10 teams:

UNIT RANKS RAW

RANKS

SOS ADJ #'s

CONF

Team

OFF

DEF

TOTAL

SAG

RATING

RANK

SB

Georgia State

90

113

108

122

85.4

119

SB

Louisiana-Monroe

121

111

122

115

83.4

120

SB

Troy

126

85

119

116

82.6

121

MWC

Fresno State

119

117

121

103

82.4

122

CUSA

Old Dominion

119

93

114

120

82.2

123

SB

New Mexico State

101

126

123

127

74.6

124

MAC

Miami (Ohio)

125

113

125

124

67.7

125

AAC

UCF

127

98

125

106

66.5

126

MWC

Hawai'i

128

101

128

104

64.8

127

CUSA

North Texas

112

128

127

126

61.8

128

New analysis per a
request is showing the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:

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