Wednesday, December 03, 2008

2008 N.L. Second Basemen

Were the best National second basemen disappointments? Or did the market pay too much for these guys?

Top 10 N.L. Second Basemen 2008

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

AP

SW

2007

1

Chase Utley

$33

$38

-5

$33

$36

$32

2

Brandon Phillips

$24

$33

-9

$33

$34

$37

3

Dan Uggla

$22

$17

+5

$16

$16

$16

4

Mark DeRosa

$22

$7

+15

$8

$5

$15

5

Kelly Johnson

$19

$18

+2

$14

$14

$17

6

Kaz Matsui

$17

$13

+4

$12

$8

$20

7

Orlando Hudson

$13

$14

-0

$19

$14

$18

8

Richie Weeks

$13

$26

-13

$22

$18

$15

9

Ray Durham

$13

$5

+8

$3

$4

$8

10

Felipe Lopez

$12

$14

-1

$15

$13

$13

Average

$19

$19

0

$18

$16

$19

They broke even, so in one respect the market paid exactly the right amount.

However, the 10 best of anything should have enough surprising results that you're turning a profit. This was true in the American League, where seven of the Top 10 turned a profit (with one un-auctioned free agent - Joe Inglett - earning $12). But in the National League, only half of these hitters make their owners money.

The market did manage to duplicate what it did in the American League by spending the same amount that these guys earned the year before. So it's probably more that the players on this list disappointed than the market overshot them.

One thing I looked at last year was not only how Patton did against the market, but how well he predicted how these hitters would do.

He nailed Utley. He was closer than everyone else on DeRosa, but a $14 gap isn't exactly the same as nailing a prediction. His Hudson bid limit was crazy. He lost on Weeks, but the market did even worse.

How many of these guys were also amongst the most expensive at their position?

Ten Most Expensive N.L. Second Basemen 2008

#

Player

$

Sal

+/-

AP

SW

2007

1

Chase Utley

$33

$38

-5

$33

$36

$32

2

Brandon Phillips

$24

$33

-9

$33

$34

$37

3

Richie Weeks

$13

$26

-13

$22

$18

$15

4

Kelly Johnson

$19

$18

+2

$14

$14

$17

5

Dan Uggla

$22

$17

+5

$16

$16

$16

6

Freddy Sanchez

$9

$14

-5

$16

$11

$18

7 (tie)

Orlando Hudson

$13

$14

-0

$19

$14

$18

Jeff Kent

$12

$14

-2

$12

$16

$20

Felipe Lopez

$12

$14

-1

$15

$13

$13

10

Kaz Matsui

$17

$13

+4

$12

$8

$20

Average

$17

$20

-3

$19

$18

$21

Eight out of 10 of the best National League second basemen were also the most expensive. Sanchez and Kent replace Durham and DeRosa.

But since neither Sanchez nor Kent was a huge bust, this is still a pretty successful group of hitters, despite the fact that Weeks is the only big-time bust here. Compare that to last year's chart:

Top 10 Predicted N.L. Second Basemen 2007

Rank

Player

AP$

APProj.

ActualRank

2006

1

Chase Utley

$32

$30

2

$35

2

Dan Uggla

$15

$19

9

$23

3

Jeff Kent

$20

$18

4

$11

4

Brandon Phillips

$36

$18

1

$25

5

Richie Weeks

$14

$18

11

$15

6

Chris Burke

$4

$18

25

$12

7

Ray Durham

$7

$17

15

$25

8

Marcus Giles

$4

$17

NR

$13

9

Orlando Hudson

$17

$16

6

$19

10

Adam Kennedy

$1

$10

NR

$15

Average

$15

$18

$19

Last year, I only looked at Patton's predictions compared to how these players actually did. What about LABR?