Why we shouldn't fear the bear and the dragon
By Bruce Walker
web posted February 28, 2005
A number of conservative commentators have noted, with alarm,
that Russia and China have begun to involve themselves in
support for terrorism and to note the dire potential consequences
this may have upon our safety in the future. I am not one of those
worried, provided that we adopt the right consistent strategy.
This involves identifying our interest in places like Iraq. Our
interest is democracy, which the people seem to very much want
themselves. It does not matter whether Iraqis like us ten years
from now at all. We want Iraq to become like Turkey, South
Korea, Taiwan or India. We want Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Iran
and in similar places to be democracies that want to live in
peace.
This means that we need, at long last, to recognize that nations
which treat America with contempt, like France and Sweden,
but which are pacifist are no threat to us at all. If we could fill the
planet with nations like those, then we would take one giant step
toward a happy planet. The good news is that democracy does
seem to take hold, when given support from America.
South Korea was once an undemocratic nation which toed the
American line and now it is a prosperous democracy which
snubs us sometimes. The latter is much better. Perhaps instead of
promoting six party talks with the North Koreans, we should
counter with five party talks - North Korea, South Korea,
Russia, Japan and China. Those are the principals affected by a
North Korean regional nuclear capability.
Russia, when it was the Soviet Union and when we were the
"main enemy" was a genuine threat to us. No longer. The Russian
Republic has half the population of the Soviet Union and the
results of the Ukrainian election, in particular, are very
encouraging. Soviet power was not just halved, however, by the
bloodless Reagan gift to mankind.
The loss of East Germany, Poland, Hungary, Rumania,
Czechoslovakia and Bulgaria - Yugoslavia and Albania might be
thrown in as well - deprived the Soviet Union of effective control
of Warsaw Pact allies or communist dictatorships whose
collective population and economies were equal to what Russia
has today. And these have remained non-communist and non-
integrated with Russia.
What was the Soviet Empire - Great Russia, smaller Soviet
Socialist republics, Warsaw Pact "allies," and communist
dictatorships in Europe - has been permanently reduced to one
third of its old size. Moreover, any Great Russian aggression
would first have to subdue Poland, Ukraine, Rumania, the Baltic
states, Hungary and other lands.
Germany, a pacifist democracy, is much stronger than Russia
and at the other end of the Russia nation, Japan, a pacifist
democracy, is also much stronger than Russia. NATO, in large
measure, no longer needs us. It almost does not even need itself.
Russia, whose economy is only one tenth our size, provides no
conventional military or economic threat to us at all.
What of China? On paper, China looks formidable, but China
has always looked formidable on paper. As a military power, it
has proven pathetically incompetent, despite its size and wealth.
As an economic power, it is rising, but with that inevitably comes
pressure for greater personal liberty and the same internal
contradictions which made relatively affluent communist nations
like East Germany and Hungary problem children of imperial
communism will inevitably affect China.
The conventional threat China poses also poses the threat of
great embarrassment. What if China tried to snatch Taiwan and
was quickly and easily repulsed? Besides, wherever China
pushes it will run into, inevitably, an alarmed Japan, a proud
Russia, a large and growing India or a militant Islamic collection
of states and tribes.
This leaves America free to consolidate our vital long-term
strategy. First, as he is doing, President Bush must bring
democracy to every nation we can and to every nation where it
will take root; we will fail, sometimes, but we will win more often
than we fail, and each victory is very important.
Second, we must develop a strategic defense system that
protects America from all nuclear threats. This does not just
mean a single missile defense system; it specifically means
overkill on missile and related defense systems. It means creating
layers of independent systems each of which, in theory, could
stop any attack. It will, inevitably, mean throwing hundreds of
billions of dollars over decades so that anyone who contemplates
attacking us will face the defensive equivalent of triad.
Triad, for those who remember the Cold War, was a system of
three completely independent ways of destroying Soviet cities.
Submarine launched missiles were one leg; land based missiles
were a second leg; airborne strategic bombers were a third leg.
The theory was that even if the Soviets developed a way to
intercept our bombers and destroy our missiles in their silos, it
was all in vain unless they could destroy all three at once.
We must have two or three ways of uncoordinated and
independent systems for stopping nuclear attacks on America
and each of these systems should evolve at their own pace under
their own command with the same mission. America has the
money and the technology and the culture to do this. No one else
can or can even come close.
Third, we must develop enough oil reserves to supply our nation
and we should so subsidize domestic production of oil that
instead of oil being used as a weapon against us, we can threaten
Russia, Iran, Chavez in Venezuela and other unfriendly powers
to dry up their markets. An excellent first step would be, by
executive order, for President Bush to declare in this war that we
must drill anywhere and everywhere and, explicitly, overrun
federal judges all the way up to the nine geriatrics in enforcing
this.
A good second step would be to end all domestic taxation on oil
produced in the United States. That would dramatically stimulate
production and make the oil affordable. Finally, the United
States should build up the largest possible oil reserves - buying at
a set, low, but profitable rate - and then, when we need to get
the attention of the mullahs or Putin or Chavez, dump oil on the
world markets.
Fourth, we must develop the human intelligence so often noted
now but also marry that to good, old fashion cover operations.
Consider, if you will, the value if we had a coup to remove
Hussein and replace him with a group supported by American
money and military might and committed to developing
something like a real democracy. France and Germany would be
forced to recognize the new government, whose claim would be
the same as Hussein, or support a remnant Ba'athist element in
powerless exile.
Fifth, we must maintain absolute command of the sea, of the air
and of outer space. Our ability to strike anywhere and to protect
America from conventional attack gives us a priceless advantage
in any war There is a synergy to these activities as well, and the
more we actually undertake research, development, training and
operations - as we are doing - the wider the gap between us and
anyone else.
Carry out these five things and the world will never face another
world war, another nuclear threat, another gaggle of ghastly
gulag operators. Do these things, and we will never need fear the
Bear or the Dragon, and we can live safely until that happy day
when everyone is free and is safe and is peaceful.
Bruce Walker is a contributing editor with Enter Stage Right. He
is also a frequent contributor to The Pragmatist and The
Common Conservative.
Enter Stage Right -- http://www.enterstageright.com