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Drug Plan's Start May Imperil G.O.P.'s Grip on Older Voters

WASHINGTON, Feb. 18 - Older voters, a critical component of Republican Congressional victories for more than a decade, could end up being a major vulnerability for the party in this year's midterm elections, according to strategists in both parties. Paradoxically, one reason is the new Medicare drug benefit, which was intended to cement their loyalty.

During next week's Congressional recess, Democrats are set to begin a major new campaign to highlight what Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the Democratic leader, describes as "this disastrous Republican Medicare prescription drug plan."

Democratic incumbents and challengers plan nearly 100 public forums around the country, armed with briefing books and talking points on a law that, party leaders assert, "was written by and for big drug companies and H.M.O.'s, not American families."

Recognizing the widespread criticism of the new drug program, Republican senators met in a closed session with administration officials this week to discuss the rocky rollout of the plan and prepare for questions back home.

President Bush's failed effort to create private accounts in Social Security last year was also unpopular with many older Americans. That, in addition to confusion over the drug benefit, has "taken the key swing vote that's been trending the Republicans' way and put it at risk for the next election," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster. "And what that means is Republicans are going to have to work extra hard."

Mr. Bolger added: "It's no secret what the Democrats are going to do. It's what they always do -- scare seniors."

Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, countered: "We told them up front, the way you're designing this is going to be a disaster. If you go back to the debate, we said this is set up for failure."

Retirees loom large in midterm elections because they turn out in force at the polls, even in nonpresidential years; their numbers and influence are particularly strong in Congressional battlegrounds like Florida and Pennsylvania.

For years, Democrats counted on the over-60 vote to regularly return their party to power on Capitol Hill -- the party of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Social Security and Medicare, as Democrats were quick to remind retirees.

But that changed in the 1990's, when that vote began tilting toward the Republicans.

One reason for the change was demographics -- the passing of the New Deal generation and its replacement with retirees whose political loyalties were formed in a more Republican era. But it also reflected Republican success in muting or neutralizing the longtime Democratic advantage as the more trustworthy party on Social Security and Medicare. The passage of the Medicare prescription drug law in 2003 was intended to be the crowning accomplishment of that strategy.

Experts note that the retiree vote is hardly monolithic, nor is it motivated purely by what happens to programs for older Americans. "It's not always economics that prevails," said Susan A. MacManus, an expert on generational politics at the University of South Florida in Tampa. She noted that many retirees in her region are younger and more affluent, less dependent on Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and more concerned about national security and moral issues.

In fact, Democrats suffered one of their worst years among over-60 voters in the 1998 House vote, according to surveys of voters leaving the polls; some analysts attributed that to the Monica Lewinsky scandal that year, which they argued was particularly offensive to older voters. In more recent elections, older voters have been particularly responsive to Mr. Bush's national security and antiterrorism positions, said Geoff Garin, a Democratic pollster.

But for now, the major battleground is the new Medicare benefit, a program potentially affecting 42 million older and disabled Americans that has been rolled out in a bitterly competitive political year. At stake is control of the House and Senate: Democrats could gain control of the House for the first time in 12 years if they make a net gain of 15 seats, a difficult challenge. They could regain control of the Senate by picking up six seats.

Older voters will play a crucial role in some of the marquee races, including the Pennsylvania Senate race, between Republican Senator Rick Santorum and his Democratic challenger, State Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr. Among the fewer than three dozen House districts considered competitive, the over-60 vote will be critical in states like Florida and New Mexico.

New Mexico's attorney general, Patricia Madrid, who is challenging Republican Representative Heather A. Wilson, was chosen to deliver the Democratic radio address on Saturday, focused on the Medicare drug benefit.

Many Republicans say they still believe that the drug program, by this fall, will be a net political advantage with millions of retired voters. But they acknowledge problems, including low-income people who fell between the cracks in the transition; the difficulties reported by many pharmacists in determining eligibility; and the general struggle of millions of retirees faced with a choice among 40 or more private drug plans, with different rules, lists of covered drugs and premiums.

Republicans have reacted angrily in recent days to what they assert is a blatant effort by Democrats to capitalize on the confusion. Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, accused Democrats of trying "to scare seniors away from signing up for this benefit." Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and chairman of the Finance Committee, asserted that the Democrats' new public campaign was a strategy of "inherent political hypocrisy and opportunism."

Democrats insist they are urging older voters to sign up for the program -- the deadline for signing up without penalty is May 15 -- even as they highlight its flaws. They are pushing legislation that would, among other things, extend the sign-up deadline, allow Medicare to negotiate prices directly with drug companies and impose new regulations on private drug plans.

As the election approaches, increasingly anxious Congressional Republicans say the onus is on the Bush administration to make the program work. Representative Paul D. Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican who played a crucial role in the drug law, said, "By and large, people are satisfied, but there are a lot of people who are frustrated and confused, no two ways about that. The question is whether those people who are frustrated and confused are going to have their problems resolved in the next few months. The administration is really on the hook for smoothing out these problems."

Surveys show that older voters remain skeptical; a new nationwide poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonpartisan health research group, found that retirees were almost twice as likely to say they viewed the benefit unfavorably (45 percent) as favorably (23 percent). Last month's New York Times/CBS News Poll found that most did not expect the law to lower drug costs over the next few years.

In the 22nd Congressional District, in Florida, where State Senator Ron Klein, a Democrat, is challenging Representative E. Clay Shaw Jr., a Republican, Mr. Klein said the prescription drug issue was part of a general economic squeeze, including higher homeowners' insurance and gas prices, that retirees were feeling.

"Things have gotten pretty rough in the last couple years, and these Medicare prescription drug costs, on top of the other issues, are weighing pretty heavily on people with fixed incomes," Mr. Klein said. "Let's start thinking about the consumer side, instead of figuring out how to prop up the pharmaceutical and insurance industries."

Mr. Shaw, who came to Congress in 1981 and has proved one of the more durable political survivors, said he expected an expensive race, but a successful one. He said he had been giving seminars to help older Americans maneuver through the new drug benefit.

"It's complicated and confusing, no question, because it's new," Mr. Shaw said. "But I can tell you by November, those who have it will be delighted, and those who don't will be wanting to get into the program."