India’s missile defence system can bankrupt Pakistan

30 May 2016 RAKESH KRISHNAN SIMHA
By ratcheting up spending in ballistic missile defence, India can apply the squeeze on the Pakistani economy.

India’s claim that its indigenously designed ballistic missile defence (BMD) system – successfully tested on May 15 – can defend the country from a nuclear attack is being contested by a Russian expert.

According to Petr Topychkanov, Associate at the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Non-Proliferation Programme, despite heavy investments in developing BMD systems, India may not be able to fully defend itself in a conflict from strikes by Pakistani missiles.

“Even in 10 years and with the huge budgets that India plans to spend on the development of nuclear weapons and capabilities, it is difficult to imagine it will be able to defend its territory from possible strikes from Pakistan in case of conflict,” he says.

Topychkanov’s observation isn’t wrong. Although India is now only the fourth country after Russia, Israel and the US to successfully test a BMD system, it is currently taking baby steps in ballistic missile development. BMD technologies are complicated and it will take years – and perhaps decades –before India gets a reliable system.

Even the superpowers with huge economic and technological resources at their disposal did not erect iron domes over their territories. During the Cold War, despite thousands of Russian nuclear-tipped missiles pointed at its cities and strategic nerve centres, the US abandoned its lone BMD site, in North Dakota. The Russians also built just one system, over Moscow, with the difference that it stands to this day.

In fact, Dmitri Rogozin, Russian Deputy Prime Minister responsible for the military-industrial complex, has declared: “Missile defence is an illusion – no matter how much money you invest in it.”

But Topychkanov’s opinion doesn’t provide the complete picture. India’s BMD programme is not a zero-sum project that will either protect the country or won’t. Rather, it is part of a strategic escalation that will have far-reaching geopolitical impact, especially on Pakistan.

Playing strategic chicken
A detailed study titled 'On the Strategic Value of Ballistic Missile Defence' by the French Institute of International Relations explains how BMD works to unhinge the enemy’s strategy. According to the study, BMD:

Creates uncertainty about the outcome of an attack in the mind of the attacker.

Increases the raid size required for an attack to penetrate, thereby, undermining a strategy of firing one or two and threatening more thus reducing coercive leverage.

Provides some assurance against risks of precipitate action by the aggressor.

Buys leadership time for choosing and implementing courses of action, including time for diplomacy.

Reduces the political pressure for pre-emptive strikes.

In short, a robust missile defence system helps to put the burden of escalation in an emerging crisis on to the adversary. When a crisis has become a hot war, then missile defence again has various strategic values. It:

*Helps to preserve freedom of action by selectively safeguarding key military and political assets.

*Increases time and opportunity to attack adversary's missile force with kinetic and non-kinetic means, potentially eliminating his capacity for follow-on attacks or decisive political or military effects.

Pakistan’s conundrum
India’s development of a missile defence system will complicate the Pakistani military’s war planning. The Indian Army’s Cold Start strategy, for instance, has put huge pressure on the Pakistani economy by forcing Islamabad to crank up the production of nuclear weapons as well as delivery systems such as ballistic, cruise and tactical missiles.

The latest Indian test is likely to create more insecurity in the Pakistani military establishment. A report by the World Politics Review, states: “India’s pursuit of strategic technologies, including BMD capabilities, has created extreme paranoia in the Pakistani defence and security establishment. Pakistan has already drastically increased its nuclear arsenal in recent years in response to India’s BMD efforts.”

Pakistan is not content with having an adequate number of nuclear weapons to deter India from launching an attack. It wants to match India nuke for nuke. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists saysPakistan is on course to have the world’s fifth-largest inventory of nuclear weapons, and is spending more than $2.5 billion on nuclear weapons annually.

Given the Pakistani obsession with matching India weapon for weapon, it is likely Islamabad will try and develop a Made in Pakistan BMD. At the same time, it will attempt to buy systems from outside as a hedge against failure.

Either way the impact on the Pakistani economy will be immense. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute lists India as the fifth largest military spender with an annual budget of $51 billion. In contrast Pakistan's military budget is a paltry $7.6 billion. In overall economic terms, India's GDP of $2 trillion is the seventh largest and dwarfs Pakistan's $269 billion economy which is ranked 41st in the world.

Considering such economic disparities, there’s no way Pakistan can match India missile for missile. Overspending on defence could well bankrupt Pakistan, especially in the backdrop of western economies no longer having the inclination or the capacity to bail it out as they did in the past.

Will Islamabad take the bait?
Pakistan’s military leadership is obsessed with growing its atomic arsenal to the detriment of its economy. Terrence P. Smith of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies says that for Pakistan, nuclear weapons have become a “psychological equaliser”.

Says the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists: “In working to double the size of its already substantial nuclear arsenal, Pakistan continues to place a disproportionate focus on its nuclear programme ahead of other key security concerns. This behaviour is far from new. In 1972, Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto famously proclaimed, ‘Even if we have to eat grass we will make nuclear bombs’. Four decades later, Pakistan continues to pursue this strategy of nuclear build-up at any cost, thereby diverting resources away from other programmes that could attempt to address the country’s internal security and economic threats.”

India’s BMD could be the proverbial straw that breaks the back of the Pakistani camel.

Spinoffs for India
In 2013, a BMD radar in Armavir, in southern Russia, detected the launch of two ballistic missiles in the Mediterranean Sea, which later turned out to be part of Israel’s test of its missile defence shield. Russia has also begun testing a new radar, designed to detect highly manoeuverable aerial targets, including cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles, at a range of up to 3,000 km. India’s BMD research could also take it

While any military spending is wasteful, it is a bit like paying insurance premiums – it hurts, but when there’s a crisis you are glad you had a policy. Besides the obvious benefits, missile defence research could have lucrative spinoffs. Russia’s extensive R&D in strategic missile defence led to the development of battlefield missile defence systems such as the S-300, S-400 and S-500, of which the first two are in great demand worldwide. Similarly, India can be an exporter of low cost battlefield missile defence systems.

In 2012 Russian President Vladimir Putin, explained how Russia’s defence sector could pull the rest of the economy out of the woods. “The renewal of the military industrial complex will become a locomotive that will pull the development of various industries: metallurgy, mechanical engineering, the chemical and radio-electronic industries, the entire [information technology] and telecommunications range. The task is to multiply Russia’s economic power, create an army and military-industrial complex that will secure Russia’s sovereignty, the respect of our foreign partners and lasting peace.”

Similar benefits could accrue to India through investments in BMD and the wider defence industry.

our BMD (old version) already made Pakistanis to change their nuclear doctrine from minimum credible deterrence to all spectrum deterrence, which means they are going to use all possible nuclear delivery platforms on us, given the BMD we have and it is not safe to assume that all the missiles will reach targets, therefore nukes will be deliver by other means. Thus they have increased the number of nukes way beyond their minimum requirements.

Now we have recently brought S400, PDV, SLCM, SLBM and ATVs into this game. Lets wait and see what change in nuclear doctrine Pakistanis now bring in.

Best example of this Bankruptcy is the fact that ISRO which started after SUPARCO, and what both have reached today shows that priorities Pakistan had and how Pakistan has diverted funds to fuel their nuke programme and their military.

Both military and the nuclear weapons, dont have much economic value in terms of money spend on them. They will be succumb to their own weight.

our BMD (old version) already made Pakistanis to change their nuclear doctrine from minimum credible deterrence to all spectrum deterrence, which means they are going to use all possible nuclear delivery platforms on us, given the BMD we have and it is not safe to assume that all the missiles will reach targets, therefore nukes will be deliver by other means. Thus they have increased the number of nukes way beyond their minimum requirements.

Now we have recently brought S400, PDV, SLCM, SLBM and ATVs into this game. Lets wait and see what change in nuclear doctrine Pakistanis now bring in.

Best part, nuclear weapons don't have much practical use.

So lets continue to make paranoid Pakistan Bankrupt.

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Changing the doctrine will not penetrate BMD it is for the domestic audience

Best example of this Bankruptcy is the fact that ISRO which started after SUPARCO, and what both have reached today shows that priorities Pakistan had and how Pakistan has diverted funds to fuel their nuke programme and their military.

Both military and the nuclear weapons, dont have much economic value in terms of money spend on them. They will be succumb to their own weight.

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Everything that pak does is a failure
Nuclear program
Economy
Education system
Healthcare system
Foreign policy
State sponsored terrorism
Military upgrades
Finally selling of any sovereignty left to pork
Loving commie chinese

3 simple facts:
1. Until today, the BMD system (even from US) is far from being ready;
2. The BMD system is more expensive than nuclear weapon;
3. Pakistan doesn't need to match India's nuclear force.

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We are not aiming for BMD umbrella for entire India.

BMD may not be as expensive as nuke weapons and delivery programme. For nukes you need complete infrastructure then delivery systems. For BMD primary cost of vehicle development was covered in nuke delivery systems, rest sensors and kill vehicle etc are addons. Plus we can do same work which US can do in 10
times cost.

Last point, Pakistanis are not sane, they just want be one up against us. So let them pay for it.

Just want to add that instead of fighting indirectly or through proxy China can take over Pak, it will be cheap and we will love to deal with sane country then insane.

Pakistan is going to be a bankrupt state whether it becomes the bankrupt by way of This or that. It was a country created out of hatred for Hindus by converted Muzzles. It has no history and not going to have any future. It will be a matter of time when it will disintegrate. The so called Punjabi muzzies who thinks themselves to be the people of superior Arab clone will appear bagging with a receptacles like the descendants of Aurangzeb and Bahadurshah Zafar who are seen bagging of Lucknow and Delhi railway station with the photos of Aurangzeb.

India only need to protect its strategic locations and few major cities which is possible with a mature BMD. Plus India is not as big as USA or China making it difficult and highly expensive to negate penetration, we'll leave slum cities unprotected and that's enough for us.

Pakistan has failed & gone bankrupt in competing with us, and "rate of bankruptcy" will increase higher & higher in the future since Pakis doesn't care about development and reforms, but Jihad

It was the second missile launch from Yemen since UN-brokered peace talks began in Kuwait on April 21.

RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA: Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Yemen on Monday night, the military coalition supporting the Yemeni government against rebels said.

It was the second missile launch from Yemen since UN-brokered peace talks began in Kuwait on April 21 between the Huthi Shiite rebels and the government of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi.

The Saudi-led Arab coalition in March last year began air strikes and other military aid in support of Yemeni forces resisting the Huthis who had seized much of the country and are backed by Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran.

Fighting has continued despite a ceasefire that paved the way for the talks in Kuwait.

The Huthi rebels are allied with elite troops loyal to Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The missile launches are designed to "sabotage efforts of the international community to make the peace negotiations a success," the Saudi-led coalition said in a statement.

Saudi Arabia has deployed Patriot missile batteries to counter tactical ballistic missiles which have been fired occasionally during the war.

The thing with Pakistan is that they have been living on the knife edge of bankruptcy for many years. Their infrastructure has gone down to the dogs and the elite are living in walled off ghettos. Poor do not matter. In fact the police are afraid of moving in the Orangi township of Karachi.

Periodically they sell their soul to the highest bidder to keep themselves afloat. The only problem is that every bail out sees them in a deeper shit hole.

Their latest saviour is the Chinese and already many intellectuals like Hassan Nisar and Najam Sethi are warning of the country being overrun by the Chinese.

There are different degrees of moral and financial bankruptcy and our Western Neighbour has excelled in all of them.

Bmd might not be as expensive as thought by making it a layered system it gives effective coverage and functionality in the future I have a feeling there may be real time satellite linkage to make it a full proof system . Anything Pakistan tries to do offensively now will be a dismal failure nothing different from their history
There are also many subsystems that will be have a bmd type role without needing development that will be backups
S300,S400,SPYDER,phalcon awac and indigenous awac etc

Lobby European union to get same liberal terms that Pakistan gets for its cotton exports and not let them renew the contract with them. Increase cotton production and reduce the price. Pakistan will go bankrupt.

Lobby European union to get same liberal terms that Pakistan gets for its cotton exports and not let them renew the contract with them. Increase cotton production and reduce the price. Pakistan will go bankrupt.

The points above withstanding.

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Pakistan is getting those concessions from EU because Indian government stupidly gave no objection certificate for special low tariffs for Pakistani textile exports.
Biggest reason for Pakistan's survival is not US or China but India's complacency and lack of proactive offensive strategy.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) has warned that the country will approach absolute water scarcity by 2025.

According to a report available with The Express Tribune, Pakistan touched the ‘water stress line’ in 1990 and crossed the ‘water scarcity line’ in 2005. If this situation continues, then chances are high the country will face acute water shortage or drought-like situation in the near future, the study predicts.

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) has warned that the country will approach absolute water scarcity by 2025.

According to a report available with The Express Tribune, Pakistan touched the ‘water stress line’ in 1990 and crossed the ‘water scarcity line’ in 2005. If this situation continues, then chances are high the country will face acute water shortage or drought-like situation in the near future, the study predicts.

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We can make it early, also contaminate their rivers with hazardous carcinogenic.

We control all their rivers and Siachen is a big source of Fresh water.

3 simple facts:
1. Until today, the BMD system (even from US) is far from being ready;
2. The BMD system is more expensive than nuclear weapon;
3. Pakistan doesn't need to match India's nuclear force.

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I don't know if BMD is more expensive than nuclear weapon program. However i do know that entire BMD program with exception of exo-atmospheric interceptor has tactical use.

The long range radar that a BMD system has, has the ability to act like an early warning radar because of its range. Swordfish LRTR with current range of 600 KM and proposed range of 1500 KM and with ability to detect and track any object of the diameter of 3 inches and beyond can very much see and track any and every activity of PAF while sitting close to Delhi.

The endo-atmospheric interceptor if capable of handling high Gs like say 35 plus, can very much be used as an anti-aircraft missile.

So don't let BMD nomenclature fool. Every good BMD is a very realiable comand and control centre site plus a very very capable SAM system.

If i can draw an analogy. Any BMD is like network of CCTV cameras coupled with intruder allarm in any house. They often come of use, even in other areas. While nuclear program is just a Glock 17 in the drawer, waiting to be used, if ever.

While nuclear warheads and their missiles will sit their entire lifespan until expire. A BMD system will help its military users in non-nuclear, tactical roles.