English Premier League Season 2016/17 – Week 13

Was Burnley’s capitulation against West Brom a more accurate reflection of their level this season or can they maintain their impressive home record that’s seen them beat Palace, Everton, Watford and Liverpool?

Manchester City’s form has been relatively modest in recent weeks as they’ve won just two of their last six games while scoring only nine times. Clean sheets also remain hard to come by, although only Spurs have scored more than once against them this season. Seven of their 10 clean sheets last term did come against bottom-half finishers though and Burnley are one of the weaker sides going forward, with five of their six defeats this season coming to nil.

It’s the half-time/full-time market we like most here, with Burnley yet to concede before the break at home this season and surely desperate to tighten things up after Monday night, while City have been held until half-time in four of their last six trips to promoted teams. We expect City’s superiority to tell in the end though and five of their 12 away wins against bottom-half finishers in the past two seasons came after being level at half-time.

Betting Strategy

West Brom turned on the style to thrash Burnley on Monday night and they face a similar test here with a trip to Hull. The Tigers have lost eight of their last 10 matches while scoring just six times and that includes four defeats in their last five at home. Defensively, they’ve not been great either but that element has been better at the KCOM Stadium, where only Arsenal have scored more than twice.

With Abel Hernandez injured we struggle to see Hull being too threatening going forward – they’ve failed to score in seven of the last 10 matches he’s missed – and particularly against as well drilled an outfit as West Brom. In their last 14 away games the Baggies have conceded just 15 times as Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Leicester are the only teams to score more than once (and none of those scored more than twice). They’ve won eight times on the road since Tony Pulis became manager and six of those were 1-0 scores (the others were 2-0 and 2-1). With Hull offering little going forward but stronger at the back since Michael Dawson returned to fitness this looks perfect for a classic Pulis 1-0 away win.

Betting Strategy

On fire in Europe, Leicester’s domestic form has been more of a frosty affair. However, they can now fully concentrate on domestic matters after topping their Champions League group and the King Power will surely be rocking after their midweek success. West Brom ended their 20 game unbeaten streak last time out here in the league but that record remains formidable and in that streak they conceded just 10 goals.

Middlesbrough came up on the back of an excellent defensive record and that has so far kept them out of the bottom three as only five sides have conceded fewer goals. However, no side has scored fewer either and their last six matches have seen just eight goals in total despite matches against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal. Impressively, this has largely been achieved without the injured Daniel Ayala at the back but with so much focus on defence their attack looks very weak.

Leicester won eight of 10 hosting bottom-half finishers last season and have won three of four here this term against teams currently in the bottom-half. One goal may well be enough to win this game and we expect them to find a way past Victor Valdes in a low-scoring win so back the 1-0 and 2-0 correct scores.

Betting Strategy

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 13 at home but Sunderland’s will take some hope from the fact they’ve picked up draws in their last two visits and are finally finding their feet under David Moyes. The Reds were held by Southampton last week but should be able to recall Adam Lallana and his form has been a major part of their play this season as they’ve drawn 0-0 in both matches he’s missed. Those were just two of the four clean sheets they’ve kept in their last 23 games and they also represent two of the only three times they failed to find the net.

Both teams have scored in seven of Liverpool’s last 10 home games against bottom-half teams (W6-D4-L0) as six of the matches saw at least four goals. That suggests we could be in for a high scoring affair and after scoring just six times in their first nine games this season Sunderland have doubled that tally in their last three.

However, it’s hard to see them stopping Liverpool’s attackers, particularly with Papy Djilobodji suspended, as they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 18 away matches and they’ve lost nine of their last 10 trips to top-six sides. Six of those 10 games saw at least four goals as they scored in six of the defeats and we’re banking on that happening again.

Betting Strategy

This is a huge match for both teams as Swansea have gone 11 games without a win to slip to the foot of the table while Palace have the worst record of any English team across the whole of 2016 and have now lost five in a row.

Alan Pardew was under pressure earlier in the campaign before steering Palace to three consecutive wins against weaker opposition and this game could be perfect for the Eagles. Since Christian Benteke arrived they’ve failed to score in just one of 10 matches (when Benteke missed a penalty against West Ham) but they are still looking for a first clean sheet this season. Fortunately for them Swansea don’t score too many and Palace have gone an impressive W7-D5-L3 away to bottom-half teams since 2014/15 when they’ve found the net. They’ve still kept just two clean sheets in that sample though, and 10 of the matches had at least four goals.

Swansea have conceded at least twice in eight of their last 11 matches and it’ll be very tough for them to stop the league’s joint-sixth best attack. Bob Bradley still looks some distance from knowing his best XI and with the Swans having won just one of their last 15 home matches when conceding (W1-D5-L9) we’re taking them on again. The obvious concern is that Burnley put three past Palace in their last away game, and Swansea may well score, but we’ll stick with the longer term record and back Palace with both teams scoring.

Betting Strategy

Chelsea are unbeaten at home in the league against Spurs for the past 26 seasons and they undoubtedly come into this match with all the momentum. The Blues have won six in a row without conceding while Spurs have won only once in their last nine in all competitions, and that was against West Ham last week when they trailed until goals in the 89th and 90th minutes. Furthermore, the visitors will be down in the dumps after crashing out of the Champions League at the first hurdle in midweek.

Spurs are the only unbeaten side in the league, however, and still have the best defensive record with only eight conceded this term. Pochettino’s side have faced six of the current top half this season and all those matches have finished with fewer than three goals as five ended all-square, including four 1-1s. The draw has also been a very common result between these teams as nine of their last 17 league meetings have seen the spoils shared.

The Chelsea win to nil will be a popular shout this weekend and we wouldn’t put anyone off it. Antonio Conte has got his defence superbly organised but we prefer Under 2.5 Goals. Eight of Chelsea’s last 14 home games against top-six sides have had fewer than three goals and the relatively strong draw trends for both sides – Chelsea have drawn six of those 14 matches – just about put us off the win.

Betting Strategy

Stoke’s six game unbeaten run was ended, somewhat against the run of play, by Bournemouth last week and with Watford beating Leicester these teams are now separated by five points in the standings. Nevertheless there isn’t much between them in terms of performances this term and neither was there last term as the respective away team won both meetings and so the match outcome prices look pretty fair.

Instead we’ll look towards the goals markets. Both teams have scored in nine of Watford’s last 10 home matches as goal-shy Hull were the only side to fail to score. Eight of those had at least three goals and with Stoke’s away games also seeing plenty of goals we could see an entertaining match. The Potters have kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 away matches – no prizes for guessing that was also against Hull – but only four teams stopped them scoring and three of those finished in the top five last term. 10 of those 16 games had at least three goals while all of their last seven trips to middle-third teams have seen both teams score so we’re going to back that trend to continue here.

Betting Strategy

With only one defeat in 22 games – and that when woefully under-prepared on the opening day against Liverpool – Arsenal are looking very impressive this campaign. They were well below their best at Old Trafford last weekend and outplayed by PSG in Europe but still found a way to snatch a point in both. They’ll expect a couple more this week though against an opponent they beat 2-0 both home and away last term.

Bournemouth have proven capable of surprise results: they were one of only three teams that Leicester failed to beat last season (the other two were Arsenal and Man Utd). However, that was their only point away at the top-six last season and their midfield will be significantly weakened this weekend as they won’t be able to call on Jack Wilshere. Their recent success has been more built on their defence and despite putting six past Hull a few weeks ago only West Brom have scored fewer times over the last 20 games.

It certainly won’t be easy for them to break the Gunners down, who have kept clean sheets in seven of their last 10 home wins. Furthermore, Arsenal have won nine of their last 12 home games against middle-third teams and were ahead at half-time in all nine, won eight by more than one goal and kept clean sheets in six of the wins. You can take your pick from those but we’ll stick with the win to nil.

Betting Strategy

Man Utd are winless in their last three meetings with West Ham but anything short of three points for Jose Mourinho’s side will be considered a huge failure. However, they’ve won only two of their last nine and their problems of turning possession into goals remains. They impressed against Arsenal at the weekend and thrashed a weak Feyenoord team in midweek but their win rate remains low.

West Ham, meanwhile, are in trouble at the wrong end of the table, although their form would read much better if they’d held onto their lead at Spurs last weekend before conceding two very late goals to head home empty handed. 24 of the 36 goals in their matches this season have come after the break so they are certainly not a team to trust in-play but in seven matches against the current top 10 they have only failed to score once.

We saw how effective Slavan Bilic’s team could be at the league’s best sides, as they went an impressive W3-D3-L3 at top-half finishers last season, with just one defeat by more than one goal, and despite their current position they remain a dangerous opponent for the hosts.

United’s lack of goals means any side with a decent goal threat currently look dangerous and they’ve won only five of their 11 home games since the start of last season when they’ve conceded. With Eric Bailly and Chris Smalling sidelined, Dimitri Payet’s set pieces and through balls should prove a big threat. Furthermore, they’ve had five 0-0s when they’ve kept clean sheets so they look too short at just 1.5.

Betting Strategy

Ronald Koeman returns to Southampton just as he’s suffering his first real struggle with Everton, and arguably his most concerning loss of form since moving to the Saints. They’ve won just once in their last seven games as they’ve scored only six times and been held to three 1-1’s. Southampton are hardly in free-scoring form either, as they’ve scored just 12 times this season and only Middlesbrough’s matches have seen fewer goals.

Five of Southampton’s six matches this season against the current top-half have had fewer than three goals and their lack of a finisher after the departures of Sadio Mane and Graziano Pelle in the summer has been evident. St Mary’s remains a tough place to go though and Chelsea (twice) are the only side to win here in Southampton’s last 16 home matches.

Everton have a finisher in Romelu Lukaku but he’s been involved in 10 (scored or assisted) of their last 12 goals and is lacking support. Up against the impressive pairing of Van Dijk and Fonte he risks being isolated. Everton have failed to score in this fixture in three of the past four seasons and these teams could easily cancel each other out. Excluding trips to the bottom four last term, Everton drew eight of 15 away matches and with both teams having seen more draws than most so far this campaign we think they’ll be hard to split.