Out of 424 rural seats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the BJP won just 153 seats in 2018 as compared to 294 in 2013, nearly 50% fewer seats. A look at how seats reserved for Scheduled Castes voted shows a similar trend. In 2013, BJP had won 68 out of 78 reserved SC seats across the three states and in 2018, BJP’s tally dropped to 31 seats.

TIMESOFINDIA.COM | Updated: Dec 13, 2018, 17:11 IST

NEW DELHI: The assembly elections in the five states have concluded, and if results are any indication, one thing is clear: The rural and dalit voters in three Hindi heartland states–Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh–are not happy with the BJP and have shifted loyalties in favour of the Congress.

RURAL DISTRESS HURT BJP

Farmers discontent is being considered the main reason behind BJP’s loss in the recently concluded 2018 assembly elections. Consider this: Of a total of 424 rural seats in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, the BJP won just 153 seats in 2018 as compared to 294 in 2013 – nearly 50 per cent fewer seats. Here’s a state by state account to explore where the shift in rural seats cost the party the most.

MADHYA PRADESH

Since 2014, the state farmers have been facing a host of agricultural issues in the state. They include a global glut in produce, insignificant improvements in minimum support price, demonetisation and collapsing farm prices. The results clearly reflect their resentment. The BJP rural seat tally came down to 84 seats in 2018 from 122 in 2013. On the other hand, the Congress upped its rural seat tally to 95 from 56 in the same time period.

In Rajasthan too, the farmers’ discontent, due to slow implementation of loan waiver process and non procurement of their produce by government, worked against the BJP. As a result the BJP could win only rural 56 seats in 2018 as compared to 131 rural seats in 2013. Congress on the other hand saw some impressive gains - it won 83 seats in 2018 as compared to 18 in 2013.

The biggest loss of rural seats for the BJP has come in the Chhattisgarh. The party lost more than a third of its rural voters. As per the final tally, the BJP seat count in rural areas was just 13 in 2018 against 41 in 2013. The Congress improved its tally from 35 seats in 2013 to 58 rural seats in 2018.

A look at how seats reserved for Scheduled Castes voted shows a similar trend -- that the Congress was able to capture SC votes which previously had gone to the BJP. In 2013, BJP had won 68 out of 78 reserved SC seats across Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. In 2018, the story was different, the BJP’s tally dropped to 31 seats. The Congress came on top, in 2018, it bagged 43 reserved SC seats, a vast improvement over the five it had bagged in the three states in 2013.

This is surprising given the fact that the Congress has never been a party that the Dalit community actively supports. According to the Lokniti CSDS survey as of May 2018, it was barely above the BJP in terms of Dalit support. It found the support of only 23% of Dalits compared to 22% supporting BJP.

Clearly, Dalits unhappiness over the atrocities meted out to them has played out. Further, the Congress strategy of choosing to highlight atrocities against Dalits in BJP ruled states on social media, instead of appealing to Dalits directly, paid off - the party was able to position itself as a better alternative. Here's a look at how the SC votes across the 3 states appears in 2018 and 2013.

RESERVED SC SEATS IN HINDI HEARTLAND IN 2018

RESERVED SC SEATS IN HINDI HEARTLAND IN 2013

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress has upped its SC seat tally from the last assembly elections from 4 to 17. On the other hand, the BJP managed to get just 18 reserved seats as against the 28 SC seats it won in 2013.

Similarly, in Rajasthan, the Congress won 19 SC seats in 2018, a huge win as it couldn't grab even a single seat in 2013. BJP suffered massively with its seat count reducing to around a third of the earlier tally of 31 in 2013.

In Chhattisgarh, the SC vote too swung massively in the favour of Congress which bagged 7 seats compared to just one in 2013. On the other hand, the BJP, which had won 9 SC seats in 2013, was able to bag just two seats in 2018.

The switch in farmer support and SC support are both indicative of a larger nationwide trend in the electorate. According to the ABP-News Lokniti CSDS survey, farmer support for the BJP fell from 49% in May 2017 to 37% in May 2018 and nationwide Dalit support for the BJP fell from its peak of 33% in May 2017 to 22% in May 2018, and may have fallen further since.

While the Congress has been able to capitalise on the chinks in the BJP armour, question is can its solution of more waivers change the fundamental issues ailing India’s farmers? And does it have a strategy to win over the Dalit vote next year other than allying with the BSP?

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