ISIS: What it will take to beat terror group

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New U.S. airstrikes in Iraq

Story highlights

Execution of journalist James Foley again highlights the nature of terror group ISIS

Lister: Getting rid of ISIS will be tougher than taking on al Qaeda

Challenges facing the U.S. and others including the resourcing of, and territory held by, ISIS

Unlike most jihadist groups, ISIS has some serious weaponry and plenty of seasoned fighters

"We need long-term to take out ISIS' leadership, to degrade their operational capabilities, to cut off their financing sources, to go after them in a comprehensive way to cut off their ability to do the things we've seen them do."

Those were the words of State Department deputy spokeswoman Marie Harf on Monday -- suggesting the Obama Administration is preparing to do much more against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq than deprive it of the Mosul Dam. They sounded much like the checklist used to degrade al Qaeda over a decade.

Until the sudden capture of Mosul in June, ISIS was of concern to Western governments but not a pressing priority. Since then, the threat to Baghdad, the plight of the Yazidi minority in northern Iraq, direct threats to U.S. interests and citizens and now the gruesome execution of American journalist James Foley have galvanized an unlikely coalition.

The ISIS terror threat 50 photos

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Iraqi army and volunteer fighters prepare in the Sedull Udeyim region of Iraq on Sunday, March 1, before an operation against ISIS in Tikrit, Iraq.

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Displaced Assyrian women who fled their homes due to ISIS attacks pray at the Ibrahim Al-Khalil Melkite Greek Catholic Church on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria, on March 1. ISIS militants recently abducted at least 220 Assyrians in Syria.

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Members of the Iraqi security forces leave Samarra, Iraq, north of Baghdad, on Saturday, February 28, to drive toward Tikrit to launch an assault against ISIS.

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A woman looks at her destroyed home after returning to the village of Al-Mansuriya, Iraq, on Saturday, February 14.

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Safi al-Kasasbeh, right, receives condolences from tribal leaders at his home village near Karak, Jordan, on Wednesday, February 4. Al-Kasasbeh's son, Jordanian pilot Moath al-Kasasbeh, was burned alive in a video that was recently released by ISIS militants. Jordan is one of a handful of Middle Eastern nations taking part in the U.S.-led military coalition against ISIS.

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A Kurdish marksman looks over a destroyed area of Kobani, Syria, on Friday, January 30, after the city had been liberated from the ISIS militant group. Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, had been under assault by ISIS since mid-September.

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Smoke billows in Kirkuk, Iraq, as Kurdish Peshmerga fighters take position against ISIS militants on January 30. The aim of ISIS is to create an Islamic state across Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria.

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Kurdish people celebrate in Suruc, Turkey, near the Turkish-Syrian border, after ISIS militants were expelled from Kobani on Tuesday, January 27.

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Collapsed buildings are seen in Kobani on January 27 after Kurdish forces took control of the town from ISIS.

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Junko Ishido, mother of Japanese journalist Kenji Goto, reacts during a news conference in Tokyo on Friday, January 23. ISIS would later kill Goto and another Japanese hostage, Haruna Yukawa.

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ISIS militants are seen through a rifle's scope during clashes with Peshmerga fighters in Mosul, Iraq, on Wednesday, January 21.

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An elderly Yazidi man arrives in Kirkuk after being released by ISIS on Saturday, January 17. The militant group released about 200 Yazidis who were held captive for five months in Iraq. Almost all of the freed prisoners were in poor health and bore signs of abuse and neglect, Kurdish officials said.

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Smoke billows behind an ISIS sign during an Iraqi military operation to regain control of the town of Sadiyah, about 95 kilometers (60 miles) north of Baghdad, on Tuesday, November 25.

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Fighters from the Free Syrian Army and the Kurdish People's Protection Units join forces to fight ISIS in Kobani on Wednesday, November 19.

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A picture taken from Turkey shows smoke rising after ISIS militants fired mortar shells toward an area controlled by Syrian Kurdish fighters near Kobani on Monday, November 3.

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Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Thursday, October 30, after retaking the area from ISIS.

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ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

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Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they combat ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.

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A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

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Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on October 18.

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Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

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Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds were held there after crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people fled Kobani to escape ISIS.

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Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

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Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

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In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

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A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30.

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Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

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Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

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Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

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Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

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Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.

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Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

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Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

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Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

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Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

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Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

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Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

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Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

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Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.

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A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

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A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

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Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.

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New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

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Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

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Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

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Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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EXPAND GALLERY

Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United States and Jabhat al Nusrah, the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria: all have the same adversary.

On Wednesday, President Obama said: "There has to be a common effort to extract this cancer so it does not spread." French President Francois Hollande concurs. In an interview with Le Monde Wednesday he called for a "comprehensive strategy against this structured group, which has access to substantial funding and to very sophisticated weapons, and which threatens countries such as Iraq, Syria or Lebanon."

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The first step in taking down al Qaeda central was the invasion of Afghanistan to deprive it of living space. This time, the United States hopes others -- specifically the Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi armed forces -- will do that part of the job against ISIS, with a little help from U.S. drones and F-16s.

Even so, killing off an organization that is now much more potent than al Qaeda or its affiliates will depend on a lot of things going right in a region where much has gone wrong.

Here are just a few of the challenges.

1. ISIS has considerable territory

In eight months, ISIS has taken control of swathes of western and northern Iraq, and expanded its presence in northern Syria. For hundreds of miles along the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, ISIS is the power in the land; it now holds an area larger than the neighboring state of Jordan. While al Qaeda never really held territory beyond training camps and caves in remote parts of Afghanistan, ISIS controls cities (Mosul, Tikrit and Tal Afar in Iraq; Raqqa in Syria) and oil fields, main roads and border crossings. And it possesses more military hardware than some national armies after seizing both Iraqi and Syrian military bases and armories.

Critically, ISIS is able to use both Syrian and Iraqi soil in a much more muscular way than al Qaeda and the Taliban used the mountain tracks between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This gives it tactical flexibility and safe havens. Although its Syrian strongholds have come under aerial attack recently by the Syrian air force, the group retains control of Raqqa and Deir Ezzour provinces in the north and east of the country, and has in recent days seized villages close to Aleppo, some 250 miles from the border with Iraq. It also holds villages and towns along the Syrian border with Turkey.

As ISIS threatens to overwhelm other rebel groups (see below), especially the remnants of the Free Syrian Army, one critical factor will be the Syrian regime's tactics. Until recently it has focused its fire on other groups in securing Damascus and retaking Homs. There are signs it now sees ISIS as a clear and present danger; ISIS has seized several military bases in Raqqa province, and threatens to take the important Tabqa air base.

In the last week, the Assad regime has stepped up its use of air-strikes against ISIS, no doubt aware of the coincidental benefit of showing the West that Syrian help is required to tackle ISIS.

ISIS could be squeezed from several directions, but it would require co-ordinated commitment from Syria -- which has other battles to fight and may still see ISIS as a useful counterbalance against other rebel groups -- as well as the Iraqi army and the Kurds. Desperation has led Baghdad to co-operate with the Kurds. Whether that is sustainable is open to question.

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Unlike most jihadist groups, ISIS has some serious weaponry and plenty of seasoned fighters. In an assault on a major Syrian army base earlier this month, ISIS deployed three suicide bombers and dozens of well-armed fighters. A long battle ended with the fall of the base (one of the last held by the regime in Raqqa) and -- according to Syrian activists -- the summary execution of dozens of soldiers.

It was symbolic of ISIS' ability to conduct complex operations simultaneously in theaters hundreds of miles apart. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claims ISIS gained 6,300 new recruits -- 80 percent of them Syrian and the rest foreign -- in July alone. While U.S. officials say the number of active fighters probably numbers some 15,000, Iraqi analysts believe ISIS may be able to field three times that number.

A significant number are from Europe, Australia and the former Soviet Union. On Wednesday, Austrian prosecutors said nine people had been arrested on suspicion of intending to join Islamic militants in Syria, the latest indication of the stream of radicalized young Muslims lured to the promised land.

ISIS paints a picture of this land through a sophisticated outreach program on social media and through its English-language online publication, Dabiq, which is full of accounts of the coming showdown with "crusader armies," appeals to Muslims to come to the Islamic State and promises that "it is only a matter of time and patience before it reaches Palestine to fight the barbaric jews."

The aim of creating a Caliphate gives the group a mission that appeals to many young jihadists in Syria, Iraq and beyond. It's a goal that gives ISIS' campaign religious underpinning, and is constantly referred to in the group's literature.

ISIS has shown a ruthless discipline in its military tactics, forcing the Iraqi military to fight on several fronts at once and using mobile groups of a few dozen fighters as a first wave in attacking targets. It has a well-deserved reputation for accepting casualties in the pursuit of an objective and uses probing operations to test defenses (as in Mosul) and to keep opponents off-balance. In July, ISIS fighters attacked gas installations in Homs province, which diverted Syrian forces, only to then launch more concerted assaults on targets further east.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which follows ISIS' campaign closely, "the breadth of these linked offensives across Iraq and Syria illustrate the ISIS priority objective of establishing territorial integrity for the Caliphate, and are evidence of the large military capacity ISIS still possesses nearly two months after the fall of Mosul.

"As continued military successes from increasingly unified theatres of operation fuel the ISIS war machine, a hardened ISIS exterior line is likely to allow ISIS forces to pursue further expansion," ISW says.

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Perhaps the most immediate -- and most difficult --- challenge in reversing the ISIS tide is preventing it from killing off what remains of the more moderate Syrian opposition to Bashar al Assad. Already driven out of Homs through starvation, these groups are now caught between the hammer of ISIS and the anvil of the Syrian army in and around Aleppo. ISIS is closing in on Aleppo from the north, while the regime cuts off other routes.

Brian Fishman, who has followed the rise of ISIS longer than most, says that supporting the Free Syrian Army earlier might have blunted ISIS, "but that's a pretty hollow position if one also gives Syrian rebel factions a pass for tolerating and even embracing ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusrah through late 2012."

The remnants of the Free Syrian Army are disjointed and deflated -- and deeply resentful of failed western promises to provide the sort of military aid that would have tipped the military balance. Elements of the anti-ISIS Islamic Front are also starved of resources, and even Jabhat al Nusrah, the al Qaeda affiliate in Syria, has shifted its focus rather than take on ISIS.

After its gains north of Aleppo, ISIS may also be able to extend its control to parts of the Syrian-Turkish border, cutting off resupply routes for other groups. Syrian activists say ISIS fighters are now just a few miles from the town of Azaz, close to the border.

Can the U.S. and its partners help revive Syrian rebels to the point they can take on ISIS before the military balance in Syria tips decisively against them?

Assad is still standing. The rebels are in disarray. And the Syrian people can only imagine what universal rights might look like.

4. ISIS hasn't over-reached as yet. But there are signs

Much of ISIS' success has derived from its ability to strike local deals with Sunni tribes in both Syria and Iraq -- either in the face of a common enemy or because tribal leaders see opposition as futile and/or suicidal. In Syria, for example, ISIS commanders co-opted the Sharabia tribe in joint operations against local Kurds.

It has shown merciless cruelty to enemies, beheading Syrian soldiers and executing Shia civilians and soldiers in Iraq. Displaying severed heads and other draconian demonstrations of ruthlessness are calculated to create a climate of fear among would-be adversaries. Human Rights Watch noted reports this week that ISIS had "executed as many as 700 members of the Sheitaat tribe in Deir al-Zour governorate, many of them civilians."

This ruthlessness is the ultimate form of totalitarian control -- but controlling such a vast area is only possible with the acquiescence of the civilian population. And this may change, especially if the new Iraqi Prime Minister extends an olive branch to the Sunni tribes; and if those who would oppose ISIS, both in Iraq and Syria, get support in the form of intelligence and weapons and support from the air.

Dawn Chatty, a social anthropologist at Oxford University, says that in north-eastern Syria "the Bedouin are very hard to terrorize, and the Bedouin will really come back." The head of the Sheitaat tribe has already called on other groups to join it in opposing ISIS.

But ISIS has shown itself to be smarter than its equally ruthless predecessor, al Qaeda in Iraq, which ultimately alienated Sunni tribes and led them to sign up for the U.S.-sponsored "Awakening" against extremism. It has provided food, fuel and security to populations on the brink of destitution after three years of civil war in Syria. And as Yochi Dreazen notes in Foreign Policy, ISIS "has generally allowed the local bureaucrats in charge of hospitals, law enforcement, trash pickup, and other municipal services to stay in their jobs." Its sharia courts have cut crime -- albeit more by cruel example than by due process.

While Raqqa is the flagship of ISIS' model of governance, there are other Syrian towns -- such as al-Bab and Manbij -- where it has shown organizational skills. Charles Caris at the Institute for the Study of War says that "as ISIS takes sole control over territory, it expands to provide more services, often operating the heavy equipment needed to repair sewer and electricity lines."

But running towns and dispensing services is a costly business, and there are only so many banks to empty. As Caris observes: "The immediate provision of aid and electricity, for example, does not translate into the creation of a durable economy."

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In some ways, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki was the best recruiting sergeant ISIS could wish for, repeatedly alienating the Sunni minority with heavy-handed tactics against dissent, followed by indiscriminate bombing when ISIS took Fallujah in January. Maliki became identified with a chauvinistic Shia outlook heavily influenced by Iran.

Now Haidar al-Abadi -- the Prime Minister in waiting -- has the opportunity to win back the support of senior military commanders who had become disillusioned with the way Iraq's security forces had been so brazenly politicized, and lure the Sunni tribes back into political process. And that would starve ISIS of the "host" on which it has thrived for the past few months.

Some Sunni tribal leaders have already make it clear they will deal with al-Abadi, if the price is right. Iraqi analysts say this price includes an end to the allocation of ministries and other arms of government purely on the basis of partisan patronage.

The Kurds seem ready to give al-Abadi a chance. Hoshyar Zebari has returned to his post as Iraqi Foreign Minister in Baghdad, telling CNN's Becky Anderson Wednesday: "We've rejoined the caretaker government."

After the recapture of the Mosul Dam, the Iraqi army has launched another attempt to retake Tikrit. But so far ISIS is still in control of most of the town. There is a long way to go before real progress against ISIS can be demonstrated.

6. The international coalition needs to stick together

The events of the last few weeks, especially the horrendous brutality of ISIS that has mobilized global opinion and the existential threat to Iraq as a state, has concentrated minds from the Gulf to Europe and Washington.

"Suddenly, a common enemy has joined mutually distrustful players in the making of a coalition against ISIS -- just the kind of multilateralism that the U.S. President favors," writes George Packer in The New Yorker.

But does that coalition have willpower and cohesion to pursue what will be a costly -- and long-term -- mission? Will the U.S. be ready to use greater military force in Iraq in support of both the Kurds and the Iraqi military, including the deployment of Special Forces, given that the Obama administration sees ending the war in Iraq as a major achievement? And will the new government in Baghdad -- still likely to be a largely Shia coalition -- make enough concessions to both the Kurds and Sunnis to rekindle the 'concept' of Iraq?

In Syria, will the friends of the opposition, including the U.S., Turkey and the Gulf states be ready to prioritize the goal of helping rebel groups, including even Islamist elements, against ISIS, over the long-term aim of removing al Assad? Time is short.

Frederic Hoff of the Atlantic Council argues that "if, for example, the [opposition] Coalition were to establish itself in northern Syria, its associated military elements would need -- among other things -- the means to neutralize regime military aviation and ISIS ground forces." That's a lot of means.

Some former US military officials have spoken of the need to put 10,000 to 15,000 US troops on the ground to "roll back" ISIS. Brian Fishman, a Fellow at the New America Foundation, writes in War On the Rocks that "10,000-15,000 troops vastly understates the true commitment, which will actually require years, direct military action on both sides of the Iraq/Syria border, tens (if not hundreds) of billions of dollars, and many more than 15,000 troops."

And Fishman takes a pessimistic view of the prospects of getting rid of ISIS any time soon.

"The political consensus to incur the risks and costs of destroying ISIS is tremendously unlikely. And even then, success hinges on dramatic political shifts in both Iraq and Syria that under the best of circumstances will require years."