Thursday, December 29, 2011

Predicting your racing times and Why C has been winning

As we approach races, I start compulsively breaking down my mile splits in my head, trying to figure out a pacing strategy. Ok, I may have even made a few excel spread sheets!

When I know how fast I can run a distance based on recent experience, these splits are very helpful, since they are based on a realistic goal time. This issue comes up when it's been a while, or I haven't run that race before. How do you or I know what is realistic?

In the past I've used the McMillan Running Calculator, but today, while reading Bob Glover and Shelly-lynn Florence Glover's the Competitive Runner's Handbook, I came across a cool formula. Follow these simple instructions:

Lookup your time for a distance you've recently run (22:16 at the 5k),

Find the world record for the same distance of your gender. (12:37 by Kenenisa Bekele)

try not to cry at the difference...

Divide the world record time by your time (12:37/22:16)*

This number is your percentage of the world record (.567)

Find the world record for your goal distance (58:23 for the half)

Finally Divide the world record by your percentage (58:23/.567)

Now you have your goal time of 1:42:58

Ok, so it's over ten minutes off my real half time of 1:52:10... but my 5k time was from a flat course, and I had a bit left over at the end of the half, so maybe this is a good goal!

Now for the fun part (for C), if your eyes haven't glazed over, you can use your percentage time to figure out how you stand against a competitor of the other gender!

Take your time for a distance you've recently run (22:16 at the 5k),

Find the world record for the same distance of your gender. (12:37 by Kenenisa Bekele)

Divide the world record time by your time (12:37/22:16)*

This number is your percentage of the world record (.567)

Take the time of your competitor (C) of the other gender (24:08 at the same 5k)

Find the world record for the same distance of their gender (14:11 by Tirunesh Dibaba)

Divide the world record time by their time (14:11/24:08)

You get your competitors score (.588)

Compare!

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So gender adjusted, C at the 5k, is actually .021 (or 21 if you're a baseball fan) points ahead of me! To beat her I just have to crank out a 21:28. If you've read about my goals, you'll know this is right on target for where I want to be... so ignore the photo to the left, I'm not giving up!

You can also use this to compare performance over different distances!

* When using excel or a free version like google spread sheets or open office, remember to express your times as 0:12:37 (H:MM:SS), otherwise functions won't work!