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]]>Europe and RussiaSkywatcherhttp://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=67152Wargaming the Balticshttp://www.worldaffairsboard.com/showthread.php?t=67151&goto=newpost
Tue, 24 Jul 2018 15:47:03 GMTFrom the current US political thread...
Well I disagree in part with astralis on this;
---Quote (Originally by astralis)---
Estonia, no matter how much we bulk it up, will never have the military capability or capacity of Germany.
the going in plans for most of the Baltic states is the...From the current US political thread...

Well I disagree in part with astralis on this;

Quote:

Originally Posted by astralis

Estonia, no matter how much we bulk it up, will never have the military capability or capacity of Germany.

the going in plans for most of the Baltic states is the expectation that they will be overrun in short order but will have active insurgencies in place to assist the eventual liberation.

My point would be that it does not matter so much about a country's GDP or what trained troops they have; what matters is their willingness to fight and on that scale I would rate Estonia (or any of the other Baltic states) way ahead of Germany.

Some material for the larger debate: First the Suwałki (the "ł" letter in Polish is pronounced as a "w" in English because the w letter is pronounced as a "v" is in English) Gap.

Rosja in the image is the cut of bit of Muscovy in what was Eastern Prussia once - we call it Kaliningrad today, Polska obviously is Poland and Litwa is Lithuania. If they close that gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus there is no land route to the Baltics.

At present the 'West' cannot get sufficient troops to Poland in time to keep the Suwałki Gap open IF the Muscovites come via Belarus as well (which they will - recall the Zapad 2017 exercises?). Nor can Poland alone break through the gap if attacked from Belarus. If the Baltic States are attacked (or "little green men - ed") and the Suwałki Gap closed it would take some time for NATO to get sufficient forces on the ground to liberate them - and defend Poland.

The reason why Ukrainians have 'wargamed' this is because there are essentially in fact two 'gaps'; the other being the "Lviv/Lwow Gap" between Poland and Ukraine. If the Muscovites enter Belarus in force (and they have practiced just that) then a move south west is also possible to cut the Polish/Ukrainian border. This would virtually surround Ukraine so Ukrainian thinking is to attack Belarus if they move with more than two Brigades. The border is pretty much open at present in places - you can just walk over (I have done).

I do not believe any of this will happen happily as they cannot beat us in Ukraine let alone Polish troops with allied support. Those are some basic thoughts though. I would also mention the old Latvian General Radziņs theory of the importance of Ukraine to the Baltic states which basically says as long as Ukraine remains on side the Baltic States remain free. Basically a restatement of Piłsudski's view that; "There can be no independent Poland without an independent Ukraine".

Anyway some matters for others to consider when starting on this at present hypothetical question.

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