So I was having this discussion with a colleague at work about first round draft duds. The discussion went down the train of thought that with all of the advanced scouting and metrics available to teams nowadays that the chances that a team totally misses the boat on a 1st overall selection are smaller than they were say 25 - 35 years ago. This isn't to say that a Crosby will be drafted in every draft, but rather misses like Patrick Stefan and Pat Falloon ( not a first but picked 2nd before Neidermeyer at 3rd) will become less and less frequent. What say the minds of tmlfans.ca?

I am with Potvin29's article he showed where just drafting the highest scoring players available will basically be the best choice. Once in a while it flops and once in a while a player off the chart turns out great but those are so infrequent that a team should not even consider it.

Where is this posted (or is there a link)? Don't remember seeing it. This is something I was wondering about the other day.

At some point you just have to pull the trigger and make the best deal available. I have to wonder how much of his current "slump" could be due to conditioning (or lack thereof) and I'm sure other GMs are wondering that as well. But with the team overall in such a tailspin, it's hard to partition out the blame among conditioning, apathy, coaching/system, linemates, etc. It's not as if Bozak and JVR are helping much.

Wanted to ask if Howard Berger is considered a joke? He wrote a blog post today advocating a Kessel for Florida's first and Brad Boyes, claiming that getting Florida's first alone makes it worth it. I LOL'd when I read it - has to be a joke, right?

Right, so basically if we'd made the trade with Buffalo or Edmonton and gotten their second rounder plus a prospect. Not really much difference. I'm sure some would complain but people complain about everything.

Except for the obvious that Edmonton or Buffalo would never make those trades. The only picks available to us were likely in the 16-30 range and in the 46-60 range. Maybe even that's too big of a range as borderline playoff teams would likely not be dealing their 1sts in the fear of possibly falling out and losing a McDavid pick, or just because they don't feel that they're a Franson-away from winning the Cup. So really the range was probably more likely 20-30 and 50-60. The fact that they got something in that first group shouldn't be seen as anything less than a success.

Right, that was kind of my point though I didn't carry the explanation far enough. We did reasonably well. There are always good players available in the 22-30 range. The trick is identifying them. But if you don't have the pick, you have no chance.

Right, so basically if we'd made the trade with Buffalo or Edmonton and gotten their second rounder plus a prospect. Not really much difference. I'm sure some would complain but people complain about everything.

Just looking at one year - the oldest (2005) when Mihalik was picked at 30. Some players who were still available and picked later included James Neal (33, 463 games), Marc-Edouard Vlasic (35, 653 games), Paul Stastny (44, 586 games), Kris Letang (62, 472 games), Keith Yandle (105, 552 games). And many others who played at least 200 games.

Obviously it's not easy to identify those talents or Tampa would have picked one of those players instead of Mihalik.

Also note that the players picked at #13, 14 and 16 didn't play a single NHL game.

Everyone knows the success rate of late first round picks is much lower than the top 5 or 10. And second rounders have an even lower hit rate. That's why you need to stockpile them at times like this. Having a bunch of picks increases the chances that one or more of them pan out. Or, they give you more flexibility to make other moves (such as trading up).

Part of the Leafs problem recently has been the lack of second round picks...perhaps if we'd kept more of them we'd have one or two better prospects in the system.

Sure but let's say Franson ends up signing for something pretty reasonable like 4 years and 20 million. Would that be good? Is he worth that? Would we be really jazzed about having Franson on the blue line for the next four years?

Maybe I just never warmed to the guy but I never really saw Franson as a guy who could be a big part of a contending team.

I don't know, it can be tough to get a good read on a player when he's on a team like the Leafs. That said, he makes too many boneheaded giveaways in his own end for my liking, and is kind of slow. I think $5 million per is too expensive for what he brings to the team, especially if the Leafs are really going to tear things down.

That said, it will be very interesting to see how he does on a better team like Nashville. I think that will ultimately play a big role in what kind of contract he is able to get.

But along those lines, did Franson ever really make a lot of sense? Is he a five million dollar a year defenseman? Is he worth more?

He's racked up decent point totals the last few years but he's also sort of been stapled to a power play that, for all it's ineffectiveness, has some pretty talented offensive players. He's got 20 goals in 230+ games with the Leafs. Maybe it's just me but I don't watch too many games and think "Man, Franson really is generating some good chances". I think he's a good offensive defenseman but I'll be really interested to see how his point totals develop with Nashville.

Well, some team was dumb enough to give Clarkson a $5 million deal. So Franson should get that easily!

I like Frattin too, but the real key is he's 27 years old. The team needs to find players with reasonable chances of improving. He's an AHL player who can fill in on the NHL team in case of injuries.

I'd rather have Ashton back. Only 23 with some upside. Realistically, also not probable to amount to anything. But there's some hope there.

Problem is, Ashton has never shown anything in his opportunities. Fratton showed more ability and potential within his first week.

I think you could make a reasonable argument for having traded Frattin instead of Ashton and just leaving Ashton with the Marlies to see if he ever develops, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over that one.

Softspot, I don't know. Frattin has obvious skills. When he first came up I saw him make some plays that most players can't or won't try. I also saw him knock people down without even trying. Can't remember who it was, but at one point an opposing player took a run at him and Frattin didn't see him until the last moment...opposing guy bounced off him. It was pretty impressive.

Don't know what his problem was, how much was injury, how much may have been lack of motivation, whatever. I think his window of opportunity has largely passed but perhaps he can stick with a team as a third or fourth liner...maybe even with the Leafs for a year or two if they do a total tear down.