Tropical Storm OLAF

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TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009
200 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS DETECTED AN AREA OF
30-35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON THESE
DATA THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTEENTH
OF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. OLAF IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28
DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALSO...AS OLAF MOVES TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER LATITUDES...IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OLAF IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
LATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS
MORNING. OLAF IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE
AS TO WHEN AND WHERE OLAF MAY TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS THAT
MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE OLAF TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION THAT
OLAF WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THIS WOULD RESULT
IN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ONLY A
SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 120.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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