This is not, as a rule, a tipping column. I get plenty of chances to do that sort of thing elsewhere and, although it's great fun when it works out as it should, it can also be a pretty depressing experience as your confident assertions are proved utterly wrong in a matter of hours.

The great thing about Claims Five is that, if I argue Richard Hills is not such a bad jockey after all, you might disagree but you can't be sure I'm not right. Well, this time I'm definitely going to be right or wrong, though we won't know which for more than three months. I'm going to have an early crack at predicting the outcome of the race we can't wait to see. Denman, I say, is going to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The bad news for Denman fans is that I've been wrong about him before. When he won the Gold Cup, I was on Kauto Star. I didn't think he could possibly win either of his Hennessys – in 2007, the going was not just heavy but holding, the most energy-sapping kind of all, so there was no way he could win under top weight, while this year he was going to be short of peak condition after a summer spent recovering from last season's sundry travails. Last Saturday, I not only backed other horses to beat him, I laid him on Betfair, cunningly setting myself up for a double pratfall.

Well, I've had enough of being run over by this juggernaut. This time, I'm going to be on board, crushing other punters. Get out of the way, Kauto fans, if you know what's good for you. Here's my countdown of five reasons why Denman is going to become the second horse to win back his Gold Cup crown after losing it.

5) It's a two-horse race

Much as we might relish the prospect of Denman v Kauto Star, round three, it's a little deflating to see no sign of any young improver coming through to challenge them. By the time the big race rolls around, it will have been three years since Kauto's first Gold Cup and it's about time something challenged their joint hegemony at the top of steeplechasing.

But anyone who can make a case for anything else in this race must be suffering from a hyperactive imagination, like the people who backed Halcon Genelardais for the Betfair Chase. Almost every serious candidate has already been exposed as not good enough.

Imperial Commander came from a yard that was in top form when he almost beat Kauto Star at Haydock. His stable nearly always peaks in the autumn and rarely achieves anything like as much in mid-March. The Betfair Chase was his big chance and he didn't quite pull it off. At least he did better than Notre Pere, who was thoroughly shown up. It always seemed a stretch to believe he was better than a good handicapper. Barbers Shop got weight and a beating in the Hennessy, as did What A Friend.

Madison Du Berlais was well beaten in the last Gold Cup and doesn't seem to produce his best at Cheltenham. Already, we've got out as far as the 40-1 shots.

The only fancied horse I haven't mentioned is Cooldine, who has unexplored potential and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the King George on Boxing Day. My colleague Will Hayler is sweet on him. For me, however, he has an awful lot to prove. The form of his win in the RSA Chase looks very moderate and the most likely outcome, by far, is that he will lack the class to get involved in the shake-up. It's not just hype. This Gold Cup really does come down to just two runners.

4) Denman's recent form is better than Kauto Star's

This is not something that could have been said last week. At that point, Denman had not won a race since his Gold Cup in March of last year, but there were very obvious reasons for that.

As we all know, he was diagnosed with a heart fibrillation last September. Though he was successfully treated, the treatment briefly poisoned his system and left him a sick horse. Paul Nicholls was unable to train him for a couple of months and, when he eventually started exercising the horse again, he was simultaneously trying to build up Denman's condition. It didn't work and Denman was beaten in all three starts last season, though his second place in the Gold Cup was heroic in the circumstances.

Nicholls made it clear that he expected better things from Denman this season, because the horse had had an uninterrupted summer and been allowed to build up plenty of condition, which he could then work off as he came back into training. As we saw last Saturday, the trainer was not just stringing us along.

Denman's performance in the Hennessy was a career best, winning a highly competitive handicap from a rating of 174, the sort of rating very few horses achieve, much less improve upon. For him to be able to do that after what happened to him last season was staggering.

By contrast, Kauto Star did not appear to run to his best in the Betfair Chase the previous weekend. Yes, he won, but there was a certain amount of luck involved as he snatched the verdict in a photo-finish. Most observers thought Imperial Commander had beaten him, but the print revealed that it was Kauto Star whose neck was fully extended as he met the line, while his rival's head was raised.

Nicholls said that his horse needed the run, but his opinion beforehand had been that Kauto Star was ready and would not be so far short of peak fitness as some of his other runners have been this autumn. It was Denman, the bigger of the pair, who was supposed to benefit more from his reappearance run. Yet he out-performed his stablemate and he may very well go on doing so.

3) Cheltenham suits him better

During a media open day at Nicholls's yard in spring, the trainer became as angry as I've ever seen him when it was suggested by the Daily Mirror that Kauto Star was better on right-handed tracks like Kempton than left-handed ones like Cheltenham. In fairness, I think the Mirror was being mischievous, but it is certainly hard to make that case stick, now that the horse has won two Gold Cups.

Nevertheless, my view is that Cheltenham is not an ideal fit for Kauto Star. It's a course that gives many horses a hard time but the difference is that, while most of them can never get competitive round there, Kauto Star has sometimes been able to win anyway by being much the best horse in the race.

Things went wrong for him on his first visit there, in the Champion Chase of 2006, when he fell at the third. Then, in the 2008 Gold Cup, his jumping was a long way short of his fluent best as he was asked to make ground on Denman, who was steaming along in front. Kauto Star can win around Cheltenham when things go well for him. When he comes under pressure, the challenge presented by those fences adds to his difficulties.

Denman has also suffered two defeats at Cheltenham, albeit one of them came last season, when he was still recovering from his dodgy ticker. The other was over hurdles, when he was beaten by Nicanor at the 2006 Festival. Nicanor showed his worth by winning at the Punchestown Festival later that season, though his subsequent career has been blighted by injury. Denman ran a fine race to chase him home.

A big, strong, tough, powerful animal, Denman rumbles round Cheltenham as unstoppably as he did at Newbury last week. When healthy, he has not been beaten over fences in three visits there. For most horses, it is a dangerous place, but it poses no threat to this one.

2) He has fewer miles on the clock

There are no credible challengers to Denman and Kauto Star at the moment, but that is bound to change over the next year or so, if for no other reason than this: they're getting old. In less than a month, they will turn 10. Only one of the last 16 Gold Cups was won by a horse as old as that. No horse older than 10 has won for 40 years.

As we go through this season, which of these two horses is more likely to show signs of ageing? Is it Kauto Star, the precocious French-bred who has had 22 races over fences, starting in December 2004? Or is it Denman, the sturdily-bred, slow-developing Irish store horse with 13 runs over fences, starting in October 2006?

These things are notoriously hard to predict but I put it to you that the signs are pointing in only one direction.

1) We've been here before

Let's be honest. If Kauto Star and Denman turn up at Cheltenham in peak condition, we know what will happen because we've seen it before. Denman will win, just as he won in 2008, when his stablemate never looked like getting to him at any stage.

I know that Nicholls feels Kauto Star has an excuse for his defeat that day. He had been briefly lame after running at Ascot the previous month and the trainer believes that may have made all the difference.

Nicholls may very well be the best jumps trainer we've ever seen and he deserves all the respect we can offer, but I'm not persuaded by this line of argument. The horse made a complete recovery from the Ascot injury in a matter of days and was fighting fit when he showed up at Cheltenham, where he was sent off as the odds-on favourite. He was beaten on merit and, if his stablemate stays healthy, it will happen again.