WASHINGTON – The midterm elections are all about the man who's not on the ballot.

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds President Donald Trump driving the decisions of a majority of voters who say they are determined to send a message of either support or opposition to him. That dynamic is giving Democrats an edge as the crucial campaign heads into the final stretch.

A majority of those surveyed say Trump will have "a lot" of influence on their congressional vote on Nov. 6 – 35 percent who are casting their ballot to show their opposition to him, 23 percent to show their support. Only one in four say the president doesn't have at least some effect on their vote.

Indeed, Trump hasn't shied from making the Nov. 6 election a referendum on him, holding huge rallies in a string of red and swing states and telling the crowds that a vote for the local Senate or House candidate is "a vote for me." Midterms are often a judgment about the sitting president, but never in modern times has one campaigned so hard to make sure it is.

That now translates to an advantage for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot – that is, the hypothetical choice between an unnamed Republican and an unnamed Democrat. By 51-43 percent, likely voters say they would support the Democratic candidate, not the Republican one, if the election were held today. That eight-point difference is a significant edge, albeit not an overwhelming one. In the USA TODAY poll in August, Democrats led by 11 points.

The telephone poll of 1,000 likely voters Thursday through Monday has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

"Trump basically disagrees with everything I stand for," said Ash Paulsen, 34, a producer and video-game journalist from Los Angeles who was among those surveyed. A political independent, he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. "My hope is that the Democrats will have taken back enough power that they can either halt or seriously kneecap the president's agenda."

Hanna Treece-Fawler, 44, a Republican from Hot Springs, Arkansas, who works in sales, said her support for Trump is one factor behind her vote, and she suspected that feeling may be more widespread than many are willing to acknowledge. "I believe that people secretly support him, but not in front of their family and friends," she said in a follow-up interview.

Different parties, different issues

Republicans and Democrats have different issues on their minds.

For Republicans, the top issue by far is immigration and border security, cited by almost one in five as the most important concern affecting their vote. The economy ranks second, and a collection of economic issues – taxes/the budget/the deficit – are third.

For Democrats, the first issue by far is health care, cited by 14 percent in response to the open-ended question. Civil rights/gender equality is second, followed by views of Trump.

And among independents, health care is the only dominant issue, named by 20 percent. No other concern broke into double digits for voters in the middle.

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The fierce divide over Trump could make it difficult to build bipartisan coalitions to pass legislation on any issue over the next two years. By more than 20 percentage points, 56-35 percent, voters say they want to elect a Congress that mostly stands up to Trump rather than one that mostly cooperates with him. There is a predictable partisan divide on that question, but notably independents by more than 4-1 prefer a Congress that stands up to the president, 69-16 percent.

House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi of California in recent days has said, however, that a Democratic majority could investigate the Trump administration while also negotiating agreements on some policy priorities. In an interview with USA TODAY on Monday, Trump predicted he could do business with a Democratic-controlled House on an infrastructure initiative and other issues.

Among voters, though, expectations of compromise over the next two years are low.

If Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives, more than four in 10 voters, 42 percent, expect "more partisan gridlock, with nothing getting done." Another three in 10, 30 percent, say nothing will change; "it will be a continuation of the past two years." Just one in five, 20 percent, predict there will be more bipartisanship "because the two parties will have to share power."

"Our government was not designed to be easy for a single party to get what they want," said Alex Cain, 29, the product manager for a tech company in the San Francisco Bay Area. An independent who "leans" to the GOP, he didn't cast a ballot for a presidential candidate in 2016. "It was designed to be difficult to the benefit of the people. Honestly, I think it's too easy for Republicans to just do what they want, and even though I'd say I am a Republican, I also don't think it's wise for a single party to be in control of anything."

CLOSE

With two weeks left before the midterm elections, President Donald Trump is ratcheting up the rhetoric to fire up the Republican base to come out and vote. (Oct. 23)
AP

A majority do expect action on one front, predicting that a Democratic-controlled House will seriously consider impeaching the president. That 54-32 percent assessment crosses party lines; most Democrats and most Republicans predict it will happen.

But there is a yawning divide on whether it should happen, and a warning flag from independents. An overwhelming 69 percent of Democrats say Trump should be impeached. It's no surprise that a close-to-unanimous 95 percent of Republicans are opposed. But independents are split down the middle: 43 percent favor impeachment; 45 percent oppose it.

"I just think their energy and our tax dollars could be used in much better ways, even though I'm not a big fan of the president," said Mona Prater of Fulton, Missouri, a former state government employee who is now a consultant on social services. She is registered as a Democrat but considers herself an independent. "They would better spend their time enacting legislation and doing things that are better for the country and their own districts than something that will probably never happen anyway."

How will you feel?

Get ready for strong emotions on Election Night.

Among Republicans, 69 percent say they will be "delighted" if the GOP retains control of both houses of Congress; 35 percent would be "angry" if they don't. Those were the two strongest positive and negative options.

The temperature among Democrats is higher: 73 percent would be "delighted" if Democrats won control of one or both houses of Congress; 52 percent would be "angry" if they didn't.

Almost no one feels impassive about what's ahead. Among all voters, fewer than one in 10 say the outcome won't register much of a reaction from them, one way or the other.

"I feel like we have to do something that registers our disapproval of the current administration," said Ann Maxwell, 74, a retired professor and a Democrat from Las Cruces, New Mexico.

The president "wants the country to be the best it can be," countered Wayne Bishop, 77, a retiree from Greenwood, S.C. He is a Republican who voted for Trump in 2016 but says he's not "in love" with him. "The other guys, I honestly feel, are trying to destroy everything that we have versus Trump."

Supporters waves as Air Force One with President Donald Trump aboard, departs after a campaign rally at Bozeman Yellowstone International Airport, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018, in Belgrade, Mont. Janie Osborne, AP

President Donald Trump listens as Florida Governor and Republican senate candidate Rick Scott speaks during a campaign rally at the Hertz Arena on Oct. 31, 2018 in Estero, Fla. President Trump continues traveling across America to help get the vote out for Republican candidates running for office. Joe Raedle, Getty Images

Air Fore One Landed at Southwest Florida International Airport in Fort Myers, Fla., around 6:23 p.m., Oct. 31, 2018. President Trump came to Florida for his "Make America Great Again" rally at the Hertz Arena in Estero, Florida. The rally was also to lend support to Ron DeSantis who is running for Florida's Governor. Current Governor Rick Scott was also on hand to greet Trump. Andrea Melendez, The News-Press via USA TODAY Network

President Trump speaks during a rally on Oct. 24, 2018, at Central Wisconsin Airport in Mosinee, Wis. The visit was part of an effort to boost the re-election of Gov. Scott Walker and state Sen. Leah Vukmir. MARK HOFFMAN, Milwaukee Journal via USA TODAY Network

U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Ohio, left, shakes hands with President Donald Trump at a rally endorsing the Republican ticket, Friday, Oct. 12, 2018, in Lebanon, Ohio. John Minchillo, AP

President Donald Trump takes questions from a gathering of reporters next to Air Force One at Lunken Airport in Cincinnati on Friday, Oct. 12, 2018. President Trump visited the Cincinnati area for a MAGA Rally at the Warren County Fair Grounds in Lebanon, Ohio, Friday night. Sam Greene, The Enquirer - USA TODAY NETWORK

President Donald Trump greets Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds during a campaign rally at the Mid-America Center on Oct. 9, 2018 in Council Bluffs. Iowa The rally is one of several Trump has scheduled recently in support of Republican candidates running in the upcoming midterm election. Scott Olson, Getty Images

President Trump makes his way to board Air Force One before departing from Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland on Sept. 20, 2018. Trump is heading to Las Vegas for a campaign rally. MANDEL NGAN, AFP/Getty Images

A woman poses for a photograph as she waits in line to enter a campaign rally with President Donald Trump and Senate candidate Rep. Lou Barletta, R-Pa., Thursday, Aug. 2, 2018 in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. Matt Rourke, AP

Placards line the seats inside the Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pa., on Aug. 2, 2018. President Trump is slated to address his supporters at a rally. This marks Donald Trump's 22nd rally in Pennsylvania and is part of the lead-up to midterm elections this fall. Tracie Van Auken, EPA-EFE

David Reinert holds a large "Q" sign while waiting in line to see President Trump at his rally Aug. 2, 2018, at the Mohegan Sun Arena at Casey Plaza in Wilkes Barre, Pa. "Q" represents QAnon, a conspiracy theory group that has been seen at recent rallies. Rick Loomis, Getty Images

President Trump reacts to a jubilant crowd at the Florida State Fairgrounds Expo Hall in Tampa, Fla.. on July 31, 2018. Trump continues to hold rallies around the country in support of his agenda and candidates running in the mid-term elections. Rod Millington, EPA-EFE

President Trump shakes hands with U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla. and candidate for Florida governor, as he speaks during a campaign rally at the Florida State Fairgrounds Expo Hall in Tampa, Fla., on July 31, 2018. Saul Loeb, AFP/Getty Images

President Trump waves to the cheering crowd as he leaves a rally at the Four Seasons Arena at Montana ExpoPark, Thursday, July 5, 2018, in Great Falls, Mont., in support of Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., and GOP Senate candidate Matt Rosendale. Carolyn Kaster, AP

President Donald Trump reacts to the cheering crowd as he leaves a rally at the Four Seasons Arena at Montana ExpoPark, Thursday, July 5, 2018, in Great Falls, Mont., in support of Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., and GOP Senate candidate Matt Rosendale. Carolyn Kaster, AP

President Donald Trump looks to GOP Senate candidate Matt Rosendale during a rally at the Four Seasons Arena at Montana ExpoPark, Thursday, July 5, 2018, in Great Falls, Mont., in support of Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., and Rosendale. Carolyn Kaster, AP

U.S. Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn speaks to the crowd as President Donald Trump looks on during his rally at Municipal Auditorium in Nashville. Larry McCormack, The Tennessean via USA TODAY NETWORK

President Trump, with Republican congressional candidate Rick Saccone, speaks to supporters at the Atlantic Aviation Hanger on March 10, 2018, in Moon Township, Pa. The president made a visit in a bid to gain support for Saccone, who is running for the 18th Congressional District in a seat vacated by Tim Murphy. Jeff Swensen, Getty Images