Churchill: Another Cuomo term? Nobody will stop him

1of5Gov. Andrew Cuomo fields questions on the budget during a Red Room press conference on Friday, March 22, 2019, at the Capitol in Albany, N.Y. The governor held the event to condemn an alleged hate crime that took place on March 11 in Ulster. (Will Waldron/Times Union)Will Waldron/Albany Times Union2of5New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks about the $175.5 billion state budget during a news conference in the Red Room at the state Capitol Sunday, March, 31, 2019, in Albany, N.Y. (AP Photo/Hans Pennink)Hans Pennink3of5New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks about the $175.5 billion state budget during a news conference in the Red Room at the state Capitol Sunday, March, 31, 2019, in Albany, N.Y.Hans Pennink/AP4of5New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo speaks about the $175.5 billion state budget during a news conference in the Red Room at the state Capitol Sunday, March, 31, 2019, in Albany, N.Y.Hans Pennink/AP5of5Gov. Andrew Cuomo fields questions on the budget during a Red Room press conference on Friday, March 22, 2019, at the Capitol in Albany, N.Y. The governor held the event to condemn an alleged hate crime that took place on March 11 in Ulster. (Will Waldron/Times Union)Will Waldron/Albany Times Union

ALBANY –Andrew Cuomo was re-elected just short of eight months ago. Already, he wants more.

"I plan to run for a fourth term," the governor told WAMC's Alan Chartock on Tuesday.

Seven and a half more years of Cuomo? That won't please the 59 percent of upstate voters who view the Democrat unfavorably, according to a Siena Research Institute poll conducted last month, and it will really darken the mood of the 42 percent who rate his job performance as poor.

Because let's be honest: The governor will win a fourth term if he wants, no matter what upstate voters think.

Who would beat him? Just try to think of a plausible name.

There hasn't been a realistic threat from among his fellow Democrats since former Attorney General Eric Schneiderman resigned in disgrace a year ago. The state's Republican Party, meanwhile, is increasingly feeble, without a single potential candidate with statewide name recognition.

I know what some of you are thinking. Few voters had heard of George Pataki prior to 1994, and yet the Republican rose up that year to deny the governor's father a fourth term. New Yorkers had tired of Mario Cuomo after 12 years and were willing to turn to a relative no-name.

Can't that happen again?

Sure, anything can happen. (See: President Trump) Three years is an eternity in politics and, given Cuomo's relative unpopularity now, it isn't crazy to think that voters might want a different direction.

Consider that only 42 percent of voters statewide told Siena that New York is on the right track. Just 27 percent believed that the state's fiscal condition is excellent (four percent) or good (23 percent), and a mere 11 percent say the state has become an easier place to do business over the last five years. Those aren't good numbers for the governor.

But Cuomo has an advantage his father didn't have. He's governing during a period of intense partisanship.

In 1994, 17 percent of Democrats had a very unfavorable view of Republicans, according to the Pew Research Center. By 2016, the percentage had risen to 58 percent – and that was before the reign of Trump.

In a state in which Democrats have more than a 2-to-1 registration advantage over Republicans, the latter can't win unless a fair number of the former are willing to vote for the other party. But in this tribalistic era, it's impossible to imagine a Rudy Giuliani-type Republican becoming New York's mayor today, and it will be much more difficult for the next Pataki to win statewide.

On Election Day, Cuomo was the governor of the state losing more residents than any other. He wasn't especially popular. He still beat Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a moderate, personable and competent Republican, by 24 points.

So don't doubt the governor will win that fourth term. And if he does, it will be a remarkable and historically rare achievement.

He would be only the second governor of New York, after Nelson Rockefeller, to win a fourth, four-year term. Rocky was also the first governor in U.S. history to win a fourth consecutive four-year term and fewer than 10 have done so since. (Thirty-six states limit governors to two terms or less and in two others, New Hampshire and Vermont, governors serve two-year terms.)

Rockefeller resigned before completing his fourth term, and don't think it wouldn't please Cuomo to go out as the longest-serving governor of New York. Don't think it wouldn't also please him to do what his father couldn't do.

Cuomo would be 70 at the end of his fourth term. He'd still be young enough to finally run for president. Or, gulp, a FIFTH term.

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Contact Chris Churchill at cchurchill@timesunion.com or 518-454-5442.

Even if you think Cuomo is the best thing since the invention of Oreos, there's room to believe a long gubernatorial tenure isn't great for New York. Other states, after all, adopted term limits because they feared that long-serving incumbents would consolidate too much power and quash the possibility of competition, which sounds like what has already happened in Albany.

And if Cuomo really is serious about running again, you can forget about reform related to how campaigns are funded. The current system is so advantageous to incumbents that only a lame-duck governor is likely to accept changes.

Cuomo went into the 2016 campaign with a $30 million war chest that allowed him to vastly outspend primary challenger Cynthia Nixon and then Molinaro, and he's already building it back up for a battle yet to come.

Churchill is one of the most well-known names, and faces, at the Times Union. His columns - published on Tuesdays, Thursdays and Sundays - are shared heavily on social media and have won several awards. Churchill studied English and history at the University of Texas before beginning his journalism career at small weeklies in Maine, later working at the Biddeford Journal Tribune, Waterville Morning Sentinel and Kennebec Journal newspapers. He started at the Times Union as a business writer in 2007 and became a columnist in 2012.