For Clinton, More Trials May Await

Is Bill Clinton inevitable, or is he doomed? That`s the central question for Democrats as Tuesday`s primaries in Illinois and Michigan draw near.

The Arkansas governor has accumulated more than 700 pledged delegates, putting himself a third of the way toward the 2,145 required to take the Democratic nomination in New York City this summer.

Despite a run of negative stories that would have squelched the ambitions of a lesser politician, Clinton has watched three other Democrats-Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin-move to the sidelines.

Now he is facing former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas, who despite a late start in Illinois appears to be closing on him in the polls.

Clinton is also facing the expectations of skeptical national Democrats, including those who passed on their own opportunities to challenge President Bush.

At this point in the Democratic nominating process, just about all questions and expectations seem to revolve around Clinton.

Can he come North and replicate the biracial coalitions, the mix of black and white, working-class voters, that he forged in Southern primaries?

Will the round of statewide endorsements and kind words translate into electoral success in Illinois? Or is he, in the precision of the political cliche, simply carrying too much baggage about his personal life?

Despite the primary victories and the fundraising, does his party share the belief expressed by Kerrey two weeks ago in Georgia that Republicans will ``peel Clinton like a boiled peanut`` come the general election?

After last week`s round of Super Tuesday primaries, when Clinton swept seven states, Democratic National Committee Chairman Ronald Brown indicated he thought the party would have a nominee inside a couple of weeks.

New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, no friend of the Arkansas governor, said he thought Clinton would be the party`s nominee, and promptly.

Not everyone in the Democratic Party is as certain, and not all the problems revolve around the Clinton headlines.

``We always take two or three candidates into the convention,`` said Democratic consultant Brian Lunde. ``And we always build up a front-runner and then tear him down. And every week, after every primary, we try to say this thing is over, and every week it isn`t.``

Lunde, former political director of the Democratic National Committee, sees Clinton fighting unrealistic expectations, and Democratic Party history. ``There always seems to be a point in this process where the party pulls back and wonders, `Is this really what we want to do?` `` Lunde said Friday. ``Jimmy Carter was going to be renominated in 1980, but Teddy Kennedy beat him in the New York primary. In 1984 it was clear that Walter Mondale was going to be the nominee, but he lost late primaries in Ohio and California.

``Even if he wins Illinois big, can a guy like Clinton lose late primaries in Northern states and limp into the convention?``

Lunde`s argument raises the inevitable doubts about Clinton as a November opponent for Bush, the probable nominee of his party.

In the South, Clinton demonstrated the sort of animal vitality that helped him survive in New Hampshire after tabloid allegations of marital infidelity stalled his campaign.

A second wave of controversy swelled over questions about Clinton`s draft history in the late 1960s, but he soldiered on, protecting his Southern base despite a controversy over patriotism and military service that would have sunk most other Democratic candidates.

``He hasn`t made a lot of friends on Capitol Hill, talking about the

(congressional) pay raise and criticizing Washington,`` one Midwestern House Democrat said Friday.

``But people are impressed with his political skills and his staying power. People here are about to go down in flames over this check-cashing scandal, and this guy has pushed his way through a sex scandal and getting called a draft-dodger.``

Clinton loyalists in Illinois have endured the dicey interviews on ``60 Minutes`` and ``Nightline,`` and had considered the possibility that their candidate wouldn`t make it to St. Patrick`s Day in the Midwest.

``There certainly were moments when everything looked bleak,`` said Ald. Edwin Eisendrath (43rd), a Clinton supporter. ``But Clinton came in, personally, and he came with a message that appealed to many Illinois Democrats. He understood that the Republican Party wasn`t interested in solving problems, and the Democrats kept offering solutions that don`t work.`` Clinton`s campaign has reached the point where his backers have stopped thinking about the Gennifer Flowers controversy and instead are focused on the most practical of Election Day considerations, Chicago style.

Local supporters worry about turnout, about expectations, about the reality that many of the Illinois politicians who endorsed their man are moved only by talk of congressional remaps and the fates of ward committeemen.

``We don`t know about the weather on primary day,`` said Chicago lawyer Kevin O`Keefe, Clinton`s Illinois coordinator. ``We`ve never had a primary on St. Patrick`s Day. We`ve got to get voters out.``

So far, Clinton is the Democrat who has shown the largest capacity for getting that elemental job done.

``Clinton looks like he knows how to win an election, and my guy doesn`t,`` said one Chicago Democrat backing Paul Tsongas. ``They don`t even have a sign in Greektown.``