278 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

Hi Jo. Happy New Year.
I cannot believe how strongly the medical community resists anecdotal evidence. I am a chemical engineer who has spent 15 years researching my own autoimmune issues.
For one reason or another, some of my prescription medications have stopped working temporarily, so I have had to stop my arthritis treatment program 3 times.
I now have repeatable results showing progression of rheumatoid arthritis, and reversal of joint damage. I know what specifically caused the damage, and what reversed the damage.
I also know what causes atrial fibrillation (A-fib), and what restores a normal sinus rhythm.
I also know what causes gum disease, and what will reverse the damage.
I need help getting in touch with a researcher/doctor who can confirm my findings.
Thank you to all.

In medical science cures must work repeatably. You need to define and report the precise conditions that you used. Then you apply your cure to large enough group of patients (more than 30 at the beginning)and results are better than with best existing cure.

Immune system can cure itself. Your success might be just that; a random incident.

It is like a chemical reaction. Just right ingredients are not enough. You need to have right catalysts, temperature, pH and so on, to succeed. You have a block of coal and you blow air with oxygen to it. And don’t get fire. Even though you have anecdotal evidence that coal burns with warm flames.

Thank you for your comments, global cooling and bobl.
As you can imagine, this is a herculean task without a champion to help out. Who wants to go to a patient and ask if they want to try something new that has not been researched. I need a doctor who knows, for example, a person suffering from atrial fibrillation. This is a very easy fix, with no risk. I need someone to help me with this first step, with which I will gain credibility.

You are correct sceptic. when you say it is a herculean task. The first problem is to enlarge your study group to more than one. Since you have no medical degree and are not registered to practice medicine you can be prosecuted for even giving advice. However practicing on yourself is still allowed. This is what Dr Barry Marshall had to do to establish his theory that helicobacter causes stomach ulcers.

You could try writing a letter to a medical journal. This used to be a way in which single case reports of interesting cases were published. If published you would at least have priority to your discovery.

Getting together a larger study group requires approval from an ethics committee these days. I don’t see an ethics committee giving approval unless you have more evidence, which is a Catch 22 situation.

Ross below mentions support groups for Atrial Fibrillation. Likely also Rh A. There are plenty of people looking for alternative therapies, particularly when conventional medical therapies are not very good.

You could try writing a letter to a medical journal. This used to be a way in which single case reports of interesting cases were published. If published you would at least have priority to your discovery.

I had a several year “ride” down “unknown lane” when I was in early 40s (circa 1980). By far the most receptive and interested organization was the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota. They likely have a group of researchers/practitioners in your area of interest. I had a great GP here in Canada who worked up a lengthy document of testing and forwarded it to Rochester. Two physicians there jumped all over it.

Sceptic, there is another path. Medical research is open to all medicos even general practitioners. Given the right GP they might be prepared to set up a statistical study among willing patients.

As I suggested as an engineer I could do a PhD in say development of electronic device to treat atrial fibrillation which is in my skill set but crosses, my research could then focus on the specific cure you suspect, and I would get help from research assistant from a medical department to handle the medical trials.

You don’t need a medical degree just an excuse for the PHD, once you infect the medical dept with the idea you can join the research team under the guise of your PHD. Most PHDs end much differently from the original idea.

Have you tried looking for sites that are support groups for A-fib, for example? Often there are doctors involved in those groups on the site. They could at least be a starting point.
Try contacting a medical University and talk to prospective PhD students –they must be looking worthwhile topics to do a their PhD on.
There must be philanthropic organisations in Canada that are working on medical issues.

Medical research is being turned inside out by the internet. I’ve seen papers in journals that now report on anedotal stories from forums. Getting 30 people into an approved study is hard, but finding 30 people and convincing them that something is worth trying is easier than ever.

The papers I found come from gene studies and the forums that pop up to discuss variants.

No, not that it much help but I know some people from UWA. UWA is researching traditional medicine and doing work on non pharmacy solutions. For example they have proven that tea tree oil kills advanced skin cancers (which I already knew). It’s probably effective on other solid cancers if a way to apply it was found (eg injected into tumor)

The case of the Ultima Thule ‘snowman’ space rock gives us a great example of how media just get significant detail of a story wrong in their desire to make a story dramatic. This has implications for how the media report the global warming issue.’

Just browsing the news this morning I read that the space rock was, ‘the most distant object known to mankind’. Yesterday I noticed the claim on another site that it was, ‘the furthest object in the galaxy’.

One only has to have the mildest interest in astronomy to recognise that such claims are absolutely rediculous. Wrong, wrong, wrong. As I understand it, Ultima Thule (the snowman space rock) is an object in our own solar system. This surely makes it one of the closest objects known to mankind. It’s not even in another part of our galaxy, let alone in another distant galaxy.

And yet the media report this sort of stuff with all the authority/credibility they can muster. It drives me crazy.

Hi David,
It drives me crazy also. So much stuff is just click bait, the headline bearing little relationship to the real story. Often i read something and think “that just doesn’t feel right” and so, by applying logic or common sense, i begin chasing the kink out of the rope and sure enough i arrive at a point where the rope is frayed, with strands going in all directions.
For example, record heat or wettest day ever, turns out to be “since 1929″ or some such.
Like the frayed rope, the original premise is in tatters and once again i’m frustrated at having wasted my time because of a rubbish headline.

Earlier reporters went out of the office to follow up on leads provided.

They mostly, saw the scene, talked to witnesses and then went back to write it up.

Today, I suspect, most newspaper journalists at least, read instructions from the editor with an outline of the event to be described all provided onscreen.
TV news crews do actually collect information onsite but interpretation will be subject to higher scrutiny and possible adjustment.

I haven’t watched any TV for the last two and a half years and only read the Saturday papers.

Sorry David, your are wrong, every one knows that ” Ultima Thule” is the name of the creek that runs through Alexandra in Victoria. Doesn’t even make the horizon let alone outer space. Must be more fake news.

Cold here near the river last night Annie. Had to put a woolie on. The promised long, hot summer has so far failed to amount to much. Grass has a green base and damp enough yesterday to do a bit more slashing. I know we have a couple of months to go, but it’s been ideal weather for a bloke with an alabaster complexion.
Grand kids this week, gold pans, kayaks, bush walks, endless driving lessons in the paddock, hope the energy levels can be maintained.

7C here early Sambar. It was only 11C on Friday before heating up to 44C! Then there was the wind after the heat, then there was rain, on Saturday. Now it’s very pleasant with a nice cool wind.
The grass is still green, especially the paspalum, but the clover is sagging! Horsechestnut leaves on the top of the tree are a bit battered but lower ones still look fresh and green. The cattle and sheep love the shade and shelter of a belt of radiata pines I planted nearly 21 years ago (other species didn’t cope with the strong wind that comes up the valley). The chooks survived Friday but were infesting the verandahs, beaks open and wings spread; verandah cleaning time coming up! Probably preferable to spending their day in a hot chook house in the company of a quite large tiger snake who was guzzling the eggs! No wonder our egg production had gone down; I had blamed the warm weather…sigh! We have had, sadly, two large red-bellied black snakes commit suicide in netting; we value our black snakes. There was another tiger snake sneaking across the old orchard…whoops; glad I saw it in time to stop as I was in skirt and sandals. This does seem to be an obvious snake year, just like 5 years ago. That year we found a small tiger with its head bitten off; it was left to cook in the sun for a couple of days and then eaten by the cat! Yuk. Another small tiger jumped out of an old ‘fridge used to store garden stuff…how did it get in there? We have also had huge brown snakes and copperheads here. All our years in Gloucestershire we saw just one adder and one grass snake.

Funny how you get used to the stuff that lives around. Had a Canadian friend nearly perish when the 2 metre red belly tried to come through the door. He then had a second spasm when I grabbed it and took it down the paddock. Calm restored with a couple of Bundies. Time for bed and what walks up the wall but your average huntsman, more Bundy required and a vow to never sleep at my place again. Personally big bears would put the wind up me, he reckons they are not a problem.

We had two of my sisters and a brother-in-law here from England a year ago…fortunately no snakes or vast huntsmen appeared for the duration of their stay. The huntsmen made up for it afterwards though! Chooks love them!

I like the Huntsman, they’re a good looking critter—for a spider. They do give the Juniors hysterical conniptions. Yes, we get them in Auckland NZ where they’re known as the “Avondale Spider.” The local variety is Delena cancerides or the “social huntsman spider.” I don’t know about the “social” bit: they like to keep themselves to themselves so they are difficult to find because in spite of arriving here in the early 1920s, they’re still not exactly common. I’ve handled a couple (very carefully and gently) and not been bitten. They can bite but apparently it’s not regarded as common or particularly harmful.

The local population has long since spread out of the suburb of Avondale. They’re sufficiently large enough to scare the bejeezus out of the unwary and the timorous.

I wouldn’t mind having them on my property after I watched one dispose of a large cockroach. It was very neatly and quickly done. Despite insecticide bombs etc, there are far too many of those `expletive deleted’ insects around so if you know of any Sparassidae looking for a home, I’m willing to negotiate. There are any number of cockies, just waiting to be eaten, so they’ll never be short of food, but they have to catch them for themselves.

There are some interesting names around here…Acheron and Rubicon immediately spring to mind as well as Ultima Thule. I’m curious as to Yea as well…more research needed
Then you see a Scottish influence, Eildon and Bonnie Doon.

The Scottish Eildon becomes the Roman Trimontium, translation is “three hills”. I believe the name of Eildon was adopted but an early settlers wife when she arrive there because the area reminded her of her home. The district was originally upper Thornton.

@ #3, I know it is absurd, they dont know what a galaxy is or what the difference between the solar system we are in and the local group. OR anything AT ALL about astronomy, its in the too hard basket. They are brought up on fake science fiction movies like star wars and the ilk.

My biggest gripe with MSM is the constant failures in spelling and grammar – maybe an over-reliance on spell check and voice to text, or more likely in the UK due to our declining (progressive) education standards.

An article today on earthquakes explained how they are measured on the “Rector” scale …..

Roger, that’s funny. I think your education standards point is on the mark, no doubt.
Sentence construction is often appallingly stupid (tautology ??). A couple of years back a news item said that “a man had been arrested for having child porn on his computer in Hornsby”. I had to assume that had he been in some other suburb he would have been free to go. lol

Renewable Rorts.
How do we communicate more effectively the hidden costs/rorts of renewables that are increasing our electricity prices?1. Rooftop Solara) Reduced capital cost. The generation of small scale certificates results in a reduction in the capital from about $9,000 to $6,000 on a 5 kW system. With 1.8 million households now having rooftop solar that is equivalent to a total subsidy (paid for in higher prices by all electricity consumers) of $5.4 billion. On annual total consumption of 193,000 GWhr, that translates to a cost increase of 2.8 cents/kWhr spread out over several years.b) Feed in Tariffs (FITs). Rooftop solar owners are typically receiving FITs of about 10 cents/kWhr, when the real value is about half that. If those systems delivered 1 kW on average, and all that electricity was delivered into the grid, that is equivalent to a total subsidy (paid for in higher prices by all electricity consumers) of $790 million per year.

2 Hydro. All hydro systems, most now decades old, receive large scale renewable energy certificates. Hydro generation averages about 1800 MW. As well as selling their power for the wholesale price of about $80/MWhr, they also receive renewable energy certificates that have been selling for about $80/MWhr. That equals an additional profit (paid for in higher prices by all electricity consumers) of $1.25 billion per year.
Snowy hydro is owned by the federal government that recently bought out the Vic/NSW goverments for $6 billion. Half their revenue is from selling certificates i.e.a tax.
Hydro Tasmania is owned by the Tasmanian Government. (2018 profit of $169 million on revenue of $2 billion – includes retail arm Momentum Energy) – about half their revenue is from selling certificates i.e. a tax.

3. Wind. Wind generators, as well as receiving the wholesale price averaging $80/MWhr, also receive renewable certificates that have been selling for about $80/MWhr. Wind has been averaging abut 1700 MW so those certificates represent a subsidy/tax equal to $1.2 billion per year. That represents an increased electricity price of 0.6 cents/kWhr. But that’s not all – there must be backup of that 1700 MW for when the wind doesn’t blow, an additional investment mostly in gas of order $10 billion that sits there seeking a return on investment, therefore even higher electricity prices.

4. Network Costs. The ways in which the moves from central generation to an increasingly distributed and intermittent generation system are hidden. Each network operator runs a monopoly and must submit investment plans to government regulators. Once approved they receive about an 8% return on investment and that plus operating costs are passed on to retail companies to be recovered in electricity tariffs. But how much of those additional investments are due to additional poles and wires, transformers, and control systems to manage variable wind and solar generators (including rooftop solar) do not appear to be explained anywhere. Yet another hidden cost of the “renewable revolution” that we keep getting told is cheaper than fossil generators, as our electricity prices continue to soar.

What have we done to have this renewable rort madness imposed on Australia?

Thanks Shannon – another tax due renewables!
On 193,000 GWhr of electricity consumption per year priced at 25 cents/kWhr, ie total cost = $48 billion if I’ve got my decimals in the right place, GST take = $4.8 billion. If electricity prices are 20% higher due renewables, that’s an extra tax take of $960 million per year.

Robber this is excellent outline of why power bills are now so expensive.
Can I reprint this on the local Facebook group ‘Mayo For Mayo’ that I admin here in the Adelaide Hills of South Australia ?
Bill

Thanks Jeff. The ACCC report states that broadly speaking, environmental costs fall into four categories:
 National schemes
– LRET
– SRES
 State schemes
– State certificate and efficiency schemes
– Premium feed-in tariff (FiT) schemes.
I have covered those in my calculations.
However, they exclude any impacts on network costs, and ignore the effect of the RET on wholesale prices. I could have included the doubling of wholesale prices from $40-80/MWhr as a consequence of the RET and the closure of coal stations and reduced utilisation of others as intermittents forced their way into the market.

After reading this story thinking it was going to be another alarmist piece devoid of science from the ABC my gut instinct was right .
Although their description of a jellyfish would be spot on for an ABC journalist though .

Going back a month before Christmas Jo delivered an address to the 12th International Conference on Climate and Energy in Munich (24/25Nov 2018).
Another paper given at the conference caught my eye called;The Experimental Verification of the Greenhouse-Effect
Dr. Michael Schnellhttps://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/12thconference/program/

I tried to write a summary of the paper at the time, but it was difficult because the paper was the third in a series, building on previous work. Since then, Krishna Gans helped me to find the 1st communication which describes the experimental apparatus in detail.

Dr Schnell and his team devised an apparatus consisting of two plates, a warm plate and a cold plate at a distance of 1.1m. The warm plate is at the top and the cold plate at the bottom. Both plates are contained within a cylindrical chamber of polished aluminium with hemispherical ends. The chamber is wrapped with water pipe to keep sides of the chamber at a nearly constant temperature and the whole chamber is placed in an insulated box.

The warm (upper) plate is held at a constant 16C by an electric heating pad while the cold plate is progressively cooled down to -20C by peltier cooling. The top plate radiates at constant power corresponding to its temperature of 16C. When the whole chamber and the cold plate are all at 16C no power needs to be supplied to the warm plate. As the cold plate is made progressively cooler, more and more heating power must be applied to the warm plate to maintain it at 16C.

When the results are plotted using a temperature scale of T^4/10^-8 the result is a straight line, which facilitates extrapolation down to -273K.

The gas in the chamber seems to be air initially, dehumidified and pumped through NaOH, which I think removes CO2.

Actually that is an important thing to establish AndyG55. Do greenhouse gases absorb energy? Do the greenhouse gases get warmer and spread the heat to neighboring molecules. Bill Nye and the Mythbusters say yes, but their experiments are inconclusive (at least I think so).

Or do the greenhouse molecules scatter the radiant energy back to the surface but remain unchanged (which is what the greenhouse theory proclaims).

The difference is important because it affects convection and mixing of the atmosphere, which defines the troposphere.

Or do the greenhouse molecules scatter the radiant energy back to the surface but remain unchanged (which is what the greenhouse theory proclaims).

Radiant energy is more precisely described as electro-magnetic radiation. Radiation is but waves in the electric field and the magnetic field that we exist in. It is impossible for energy to flow from low potential to higher potential in the electric field. For high frequency, broadd spectrum waves the term radiance is often used synonymously with potential.

This link has a relatively simple explanation of Maxwell’s equations, which mathematically describe the electric field and magnetic field all about the universe and how energy is transported:http://www.irregularwebcomic.net/1420.html
If you take the time to read to the bottom you will find this tremendous insight:

You notice that if you apply some algebra to your new equations, you can generate an equation that only refers to the electric field, and an almost identical equation that refers to the magnetic field. You solve them and realise that these equations describe the motions of waves of electric and magnetic fields. You do the algebra to calculate the speed of the waves and realise it depends on those values you measured for εo and μo.

So you do the arithmetic. You take the values you measured for εo and μo, multiply them together, take the square root, and then take the reciprocal. The answer is a speed, so it has units of speed, in this case metres per second. And the answer is very close to 300,000,000 metres per second. Converted into miles, that’s a tad over 186,000 miles per second. Being James Clerk Maxwell, and a brilliant physicist, you immediately recognise what this number is.

It’s always fascinated me how Maxwell, a long time ago before radio was being used, was able to come up with the equations which are still being used today to describe how radio waves travel, yet we still don’t really know how radio waves travel through space.

If you have an understanding of the electric field and magnetic field then you have a good start on how radio waves travel through space. No different to higher frequency light waves. All are just cyclic disturbances in the field as matter responsive to particular frequencies exchange energy.

High frequency EM waves do not penetrate very far in most matter but are energetic. Think of sunburn. Microwaves penetrate deeper and can heat matter from the inside out; think microwave oven. Low frequency radio waves have little discernible impact on the human body.

The fact the the speed of light through space is solely a function of magnetic permeability and electric permittivity of space gives a clue to the fundamental similarity of all EMR and the significance of Maxwell’s field equations to their understanding.

The way that the Stefan-Boltzman equation is abused to derive back radiation from low radiance to high radiance is like saying a massive ball can roll up hill in the gravitation field. Or a low voltage battery is forcing charge into a higher voltage battery but it is less than the charge from the high voltage battery to the low voltage battery; energy does not flow against the potential of the field.

There is only one gravity field in the known universe. There is only one electric field in the universe. There is only one magnetic field in the universe. In many cases we can simplify the analysis of systems like electrical circuits by neglecting the unconcentrated part of the field similar to the way we neglect all other masses in the universe when we consider the force acting on own mass in the gravity field on the surface of the Earth. The changes in the gravity field over the surface of the Earth is too small to bother with.

On the other hand, reducing the climate of Earth to one equation to derive the so-called black body temperature of 255C is pure fiction with no basis in the E-M field equations attributed to Maxwell.

After 57 years in electronics, well understood. S-B however I have to leave to experts such as you. However, at times radio waves behave like waves and at other times like particles. Just assuming one or the other mode doesn’t fully explain their behaviour.

The theory of EMR should have been replaced by Quantum electrodynamics. But engineers and scientists dont know how to use QED, only some in the nuclear particle physics area.
EMR and Maxwell is well over 150 years old has stood the test of time but when it was formulated there was NO knowledge of quantum mechanics or particle physics, pre Rutherford, Bohr, Dirac, Plank, JJ Thompson etc.
Good for engineers to make stuff and works in the general case of large scale structures. Large relative to nuclear dimensions.
EM fields as such dont really exist only quantized photon energy.

To be credible any experiment would have to take in all the variables and because not all inputs are known I don’t see how it’s possible to have any accuracy or validity.
It would be easier to predict lotto numbers .

The “experiment” is has already been conducted. It’s called the earth. We already can see from observation that the TOTAL CO2 has little or no bearing on global temperatures. We can conclude that CO2 from man-made sources, such as coal fired power stations have insignificant impact since we make up a tiny proportion of the TOTAL CO2. The whole CAGW story is a scam.

I think that the experimenters here have controlled for known factors. Even better they only change one thing, in this case the gas mixture. So all the other factors should remain the same and the gas mixture alone changes the rate of heat loss from the warm plate.

In that respect I think it is a good experiment.

However Reed Coray has made an important observation. The gas mixture itself may introduce an unexpected variable. What was thought to be due to radiative heat transfer might in fact be due to conduction (which is a very different proposition).

Sure, CO2 can selectively absorb IR radiation that other air molecules won’t.

This makes the CO2 over_energised compared to surrounding gas molecules. This cannot last and equilibrium must be reestablished by conduction (impact).

The parcel of air gets warmer, it expands, becomes less dense and floats up and away. The energy is moving closer to that great heat sink in the sky at about 1.4°C above absolute zero.

In no way can energy from such an interaction turn around and go back to Earth.

Energy with higher potential, or Virtue, such as UV coming in from the Sun can certainly go to Earth, but low grade energy like IR can only follow the energy gradient down like a slippery dip to the waste bin.
The whole mass, heat and momentum transfer of the atmosphere has been simplified and distorted to enable the truth of global warming to be maintained.

The first thing that hit me was the claim made by the experimenters that when Propane was introduced there was a commensurate reduction in energy required at the hot plate.

I’m hoping that they have provision for maintaining constant pressure throughout all of this?

The comment seems to imply that when Propane is introduced it somehow “creates energy”.

Without having read the links I’m not sure whether this paper has considered everything that’s important.

First, the chamber, of Aluminum, presents an accounting issue for where thermal energy goes. Why wasn’t this experimental unit itself contained in a vacuum?

Second, the initial air has a density of about 1.227 kg/cubic meter. The Propane has a density of 493 kg/cubic meter.
Sixty percent propane????

I think they’ve left a lot of issues for exploration such as the masses under examination.
The experimental container would hold about 0.2 kg of air. At 60% propane the mass is about 60 kg.
Why didn’t they test CO2?, its mass at 60% might be 0.3 kg.

Too many loose ends in this experiment? Heat flow, air in chamber weighs 0.2 kg . Weight of aluminium tank. Effect of water pipe stabilization system around tank?

The experiment proves that an IR responsive gas absorbs EMR thereby reducing the efficiency of radiant heat transfer from a hot surface to a remote receiver – nothing else.

The best way to determine what the average temperature of the Earth would be without an atmosphere is to study the moon. It has the same average distance from the sun as Earth.. It has a maximum of 410K and a minimum of 25K so the average is 217K.

I have a very simple, relatively low cost proposal to dramatically cool Earth. Close the Bering Straight. That will cause a large portion of the land surrounding the North Atlantic to ice over and thereby lower the average surface temperature. The connectedness of the global oceans and distribution of water (read heat) over the surface of the Earth is the only factor making most of the land on Earth habitable:https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116189

The two points above are relevant to the paper on the basis that they highlight the stupidity of thinking about so-called greenhouse gasses making Earth a habitable 33C above the temperature it would be without greenhouse gases. It’s deluded thinking and that is without accounting for the Mickey Mouse science involved in the experiment. Minor changes to energy flow from ocean to ocean will have a huge impact on the average temperature. Closing the Bering Straight puts most of Europe and the eastern half of the USA under ice – think how much that will change the average global temperature.

Papers like this demonstrate how poor peer review is in weeding out nonscience.

The experiment proves that an IR responsive gas absorbs EMR thereby reducing the efficiency of radiant heat transfer from a hot surface to a remote receiver – nothing else.
………………………
Papers like this demonstrate how poor peer review is in weeding out nonscience.

Perhaps that is another way of describing a “greenhouse Gas’ Essentially it means the same as the blanket analogy. Heat transfer is reduced and it takes less electrical power to keep the hot plate at 16C, when Propane is introduced into the chamber.

I think it goes one step further than the Tyndal Experiment (1896), which I will get to some time soon.

As for peer review, it is described as a communication (too the EIKE group). So the peer review is happening here. A far better system I think. We reviewers have to own our criticisms not hide behind an anonymous curtain.

Thanks for the reference to the Maxwell equations. Physics was in much better shape then than it is now that quantum mechanics has messed everything up.

There is NO correlation with CO2 and climate – end. Paper has been published showing planet temperatures are a function of pressure and solar radiation only.

Earth a habitable 33C – misuse of the Stephan Boltzmann equation using treating flux as heat, and the FALSE assumption the earths atmosphere is a black body.

The earth without an atmosphere is nonsense, any temperature would be that of the surface rock which absorbs radiation, and it would be function of the type of that rock and its albedo etc. Planets with out atmospheres wouldnt have oceans of liquid water. Europa is frozen.

Ah! But the Stephan Boltzmann equation only applies at the bottom of the atmosphere. At the top of the atmosphere ONLY CO2 is radiating to space. Hot molecules of oxygen and nitrogen cannot radiate energy (so we are told).

PeterC. A few things
Look at Stefan’s original paper. He took measurements results from two French scientists (Petit and Coulomb I think- the first one is correct not sure about the second name). They made measurements of surfaces (flat plates I think) in a vacuum, NB(note well) a vacuum. Stefan found that heat transfer was proportional to the 4th power of the absolute temperature. Boltzmann (Stefan’s student) worked out the the proportionality factor beside the surface area of the receiving plate. French engineers found later,written up in various papers’ that one needs to include the emissivity of the two surfaces and 4th power of absolute temperature of both surfaces (naturally if both surfaces have the same temperature then there is no heat flow. This is the equation found in all engineering texts heat transfer.
Note Boltzmann, wrote a paper proving that heat flow only goes in one direction from warm to cool. This was already apparent from Stefan’s original findings.
Next Baron Fourier found that dry air acts like a vacuum with regard to radiation ie it does not absorb radiation.
It appears from Dr Schnell’s experiment that at the start he had dry air with no CO2 (ie that did not absorb radiation in his temperature range.
When you put in a gas which absorbs radiation the gas acts similar to an insulator -less radiation can pass through and because the temperature is raised at the emitting surface less radiation is emitted.
The article is wrong about the conjecture oh heat flow. It is clear Dr Schnell has little understanding of heat transfer and that is because he has no engineering qualifications or training.
Finally, water vapour is the major so-called greenhouse gas. It is something like 20 times more radiation absorbent than CO2 (emissivity over the temperature range 0-500C is around 0.40) and there is something like 50 times as much in the atmosphere. Water vapour forms into clouds of liquid water drops and ice particles which have much higher emissivity (0.97 & 0.6 resp- emissivity of clouds because on depth and concentration of water and is around 0.8)than water vapour
Please note that S-B equation can not be used for gases which have no surface. However, there is a modification which includes path length partial pressues of radiation absorbing gases such as water vapour.
Let me repeat scientists do not understand the engineering subject of heat transfer. One can not make thought experiments about something one does not understand.

A couple of spelling mistakes and left out words.
It should be the temperature is raised close to the emitting surface (from the gas absorbing radiation) also should have mentioned that heat transfer equation with gases are based on volume rather than surface area.
RickWill 8.3 above sort of has the right idea.

Not exactly, you can use SB but you must account for the relative velocity in the gas distribution, IE you can’t treat the gas as a surface but as a set of surfaces. This causes the smearing of the spectrum, fast moving gas molecules emit at a lower or higher frequency due to the Doppler effect. Climate science has the cause of the width of the emission band wrong. It represents the temperature of the gas, the higher the temp the broader the emission band (from the Doppler effect), the “wings” come from hotter CO2 lower in the atmosphere so there is no one emission height.

The wings of the emission band will not broaden with CO2 concentration and CO2 IR emission will saturate.

Bobl, an atom, a molecule and a gas which is a collection of separate molecules have no surface. A surface is something that can be seen (that is reflects light) and can be touched. Liquids and solids have a surface. You have been reading the wrong sort of texts. Obviously you are not a chemical or mechanical engineer. The chemical Engineers Handbook and the Mechanical Engineers Handbook which hundreds of thousnds if not millions of engineers have consulted and reviewed has a section by the late Prof Hottel (MIT) on heat transfer with gases based on actual test work. I have had experience with combustion and heat transfer from flames. Can not think of a scientist that has had actual experience with heat transfer. Flames which are clouds (eg coal flames)transfer more heat by radiation than clear gas flames because the emissivity is higher. The emissivity of CO2 in the atmosphere is so small to be unmeasureable. The emissivity in a natural gas flame is due almost entirely from water vapour.

I am an engineer, while it’s true you can’t apply SB directly, it would not be impossible to characterize a gasses emissions by considering it a distribution and integrating over the whole atmosphere.

You are right about traditional thermodynamics, but that works by ignoring the actual internals of the system and deals only with net transfers across a boundary which always goes from hot to cold it says nothing about the mechanisms by which the net emission is set.

My point above is only that the wings of the abortion band are caused by the Doppler effect of molecules moving quickly away and toward the sensor having higher or lower apparent frequency. These emissions are not intercepted by other colder CO2 molecules higher in the atmosphere because the Doppler shifted frequency doesn’t match the bond vibration frequency.

Thus you can’t consider the gas to be a statistical single layer at a given height.

First, thanks for the post. I haven’t had a chance to review the referenced paper, so what follows is a quick response to your comment.

If I understand the experiment, (a) a hot plate and a cold plate separated by 1.1 meters are enclosed in a container whose walls by some means are maintained at a fixed temperature, (b) by other means the temperature of the cold plate is kept at -20 C, (c) by controlling the rate heat is supplied to the hot plate, the hot plate is maintained at a temperature of 16 C, (d) the container is filled with gas of various mixtures (at first dehumidified air which may or may not be devoid of CO2, later with different percentages of propane gas), and (e) little if any convection is present inside the container. For this comment I am going to assume the pressure of the gas within the container is one atmosphere for all measurements—i.e., if propane is injected into the container, air is removed to maintain the pressure in the container at one atmosphere.

One result of the experiment is that as the percentage of propane increases in the gas mixture, to maintain the hot and cold plates at, respectively, 16 C and -20 C, the rate heat must be supplied to the hot plate decreases.

The first thing that occurred to me is that heat will be transferred from the hot plate to the cold plate via both radiation and conduction. Based on this, I decided to see if the above result could be explained by a difference in the conduction properties of air and propane gas. I got on line and looked up the thermal conduction properties of air at one atmosphere pressure (I’m not sure if numbers I used are for air or dehumidified air) and propane gas at one atmosphere pressure. Using the “tool boxes” at

I learned that at one atmosphere pressure (a) the thermal conductivity of air at, respectively, -20 C and 16 C is 22.81 and 25.57 milliwatts per meter per Kelvin, and (b) the thermal conductivity of propane at, respectively, -20 C and 16 C is 13.6 and 17.3 milliwatts per meter per Kelvin. I didn’t check but I assume that over the temperature range -20 C to 16 C the thermal conductivities of these gases change monotonically. If true, that at all temperatures between the hot plate temperature and the cold plate temperature, the thermal conductivity of air is greater than the thermal conductivity of propane. That is, from an insulation perspective, propane is a better insulator than air. If thermal conduction plays a significant part in the transfer of heat from the hot plate to the cold plate, it comes as no surprise to me that to maintain the hot and cold plates at the fixed temperatures of 16 C and -20 C the rate heat must be supplied to the hot plate for propane is less than the rate heat must be supplied to the hot plate for air. It’s kind of like insulating your house with two different kinds of insulation having different conduction rates (insulation ratings). The better insulator (the lower the thermal conductivity), the lower your heating bill because the house can be maintained at a fixed temperature with a lower heat input rate.

As to what all this says about a greenhouse effect will take more thought. But my initial response is that if the experiment has demonstrated a greenhouse effect, it is one associated with conduction not radiation. And since heat leaves the Earth/Earth atmosphere system primarily via radiation (i.e., no conduction), the experiment does not demonstrate a radiative greenhouse effect for the Earth, which is what I believe warmists mean when they discuss the Earth’s CO2-induced greenhouse effect.

Is propane gas a green house gas? I supposed that it is. In Communication 2 the authors try a number of greenhouse gases, including CO2. They have varying degrees of effectiveness. Co2 is one of the least effective. However that is not the issue right now, since I am examining the apparatus and possible flaws in the experimental method.

The biggest issue I see is that the cylinder is wrapped in water pipe to maintain a constant temperature.
I haven’t read the links but energy is moving through the walls, one way or the other. Perhaps I should have added, one end or the other.

I wonder if a base measurement of the unit was carried out with a vacuum before the air and propane mixes?
With one end at -20 and the other at +16°C and a constant temperature induced outside a highly conductive container, there’s room for a lot of double checking. How much energy moves along towards the minus 20°C end through the aluminium walls?

There is a point being missed, energy in must equal energy out, the rate of input needs to be balanced by the rate of cooling assuming the apparatus is adequately insulated. The power transferred between the plates represents the transfer rate (partly the thermal conductivity of the medium and partly the direct radiation between the hot plate and cold plate outside the absorption bands of the medium)

Any (thermal)power difference between the hot plate and the cold plate represents a loss.

These things must be accounted for… the experiment must establish energy in = energy out.

Having flicked through the second link in Peter’s post it seemed that this experiment is competing with the Myth Buster caged CO2 experiment for the dumb award.

While I admit that I didn’t read the whole thing, which would require a month of intense effort, the overall impression was one of out of control complexity.

I don’t believe that they have clearly stated what it is that they are trying to do nor have they described the mechanism of energy absorption they are trying to prove.

It’s just a mess of “stuff”.

When I first heard of the S_B equation fifty years ago two things stuck.

1. It was experimentally demonstrated in a box with perfectly absorbent black walls.

2. For use in the Real world the equation had to be “tuned” by observation of the situation. This means that you can’t just take the equation off the shelf and plug in values as is done by the climate change community.

The whole paper may look impressive but I have a strong feeling that they have very little idea what they are doing.

I did think about sending this to you anyway for comment. Thanks for your comment.

The authors assume that they are measuring radiative heat transfer. They have set up the apparatus to minimise or prevent conduction and have assumed that conduction is non existent. From what you have found that may be wrong. The plates are only 1.1m apart. I imagine that conduction could be important over that short range. And they do not say how long it took the measurements to stabilise after each cooling step.

I was prepared to accept the result initially as demonstration of the radiative greenhouse effect but now I am unsure. Hence the paper is downgraded to provisional and unproven.

I want to be fair. In your initial post, you mentioned that another result of the experiment was:

“…as the cold plate is made progressively cooler, more and more heating power must be applied to the warm plate to maintain it at 16C.

“When the results are plotted using a temperature scale of T^4/10^-8 the result is a straight line, which facilitates extrapolation down to -273K.”

The T^4 behavior seems to imply the rate of heat transfer between the two plates is governed more by radiation than by conduction. This may be true, but I have my doubts. As you may or may not know, I graduated from the University of Utah, which if you remember is famous (notorious is a better word) for “cold fusion.” I left Utah before the cold fusion brouhaha, but I recall two professors from the chemistry department claimed to have observed fusion at temperatures far below those present in a thermonuclear device. They based their claim on experiments that seemed to have an excess of heat that they argued was created by fusion. As I heard later via second hand, Utah’s physics department warned the chemistry professors to hold off announcing their results until experiments could be conducted to determine the presence of particles that are created during the fusion process. I also heard that the physics department warned the chemistry department that results based on calorimetry (heat) measurements were notoriously tricky and subject to all kinds of issues.

In itself the T^4 dependence is complex. What were the atmospheric conditions when these measurements were made? For example, did a vacuum exist in the container or did the container contain gas? If gas was present, what gas and at what pressure? What was the temperature of the walls of the container and how was the wall temperature maintained at a constant temperature as the temperature of the cold plate was lowered?

I believe all of these conditions, and maybe others I haven’t thought of, may play a measurable role in the rate heat must be supplied to the system as a whole and to the hot plate in particular to maintain a hot plate temperature of 20 C. For example, if the temperature of the container walls is higher than the temperature of the cold plate, then heat will be transferred from the container walls to the cold plate. As the temperature of the cold plate is lowered, this will have a tendency to lower the temperature of the container walls, which means that to maintain a fixed container wall temperature as the temperature of the cold plate is lowered, then either the water pipes that maintain the container wall temperature at a fixed value or the heater attached to the hot plate will have to supply extra heat to the system. Has the experiment properly accounted for this source of heat? These are just a few of the issues that must be addressed. I’m not saying the authors didn’t address these issues, only that I am not aware that they were addressed.

But at a more fundamental level—if the authors claim their experiments have established the existence of the “greenhouse effect,” I would like to see a clear definition of what exactly is the “greenhouse effect.” (a) Is it: “All else being equal, when gases that absorb/radiate energy in sub-bands of the IR band are in contact with matter, those gases can affect the temperature of the matter?” Or (b) is it: “All else being equal, when present in a closed container, gases that absorb/radiate energy in sub-bands of the IR band will increase the temperature of the container?” Or (c) is it: “All else being equal, when present in the Earth’s atmosphere, gases that absorb/radiate energy in sub-bands of the IR band will increase the temperature of the Earth’s surface?” Or (d) is it something else entirely? If the “greenhouse effect” is (c), then as others have pointed out since the experiment was performed in a closed container it does not represent the Earth/Earth atmosphere system and therefore does not establish a Earth/Earth atmosphere “greenhouse effect.”

Assuming the entire container was filled with propane and the conductivity of propane is 9mW/m lower than dry air then the conductive heat transfer with a temperature difference of 36C. area of 0.1sq.m and separation of 1.1m is 29mW.

Clearly conduction is insignificant in the heat transfer.

Propane has 90% absorption over the spectrum 3300nm to 3500nm. A black body emitter has a power of about 12W/m2.nm at 298K. That means the propane will warm substantially increasing the temperature of the gas in the vicinity of the emitting surface. This is indicated by the reduction in temperature gradient between the emitter and the gas at the T1 probe with propane present.

Working backwards from the measured power transfer and assuming no absorption with the initial gas, an emissivity of the emitter of 0.75 gives effective receiver temperature is -20C for 120W, -11.8C for 97W and 4.3C for 44W. Clearly the effective receiving temperature is no longer at the bottom plate once propane is introduced.

As stated above the IR-responsive gas hinders the efficient EMR transfer by absorbing enough energy in a narrow band to warm up, thereby increasing its radiance and lowering transmittance.

Note that given the high thermal gradient near the receiver, it is likely that conductivity is playing a greater role than assuming a linear gradient as I did in the above calculation but still insignificant compared to the radiant transfer.

Rick, your point is valid that for orthogonally oriented (I assume the perpendicular bisectors of the two plates are coincident) plates each of area 0.1 square meters separated by 1.1 meters and having a temperature difference of 36K, the conductive difference between heat transfer rates of air and pure propane (assuming a thermal conductivity difference of 9 milliwatts per meter per Kelvin) is small. Furthermore, not only is the difference in heat conduction rates small, the individual heat conduction rates for both air and pure propane are small (on the order of 50 milliwatts). I haven’t done the detailed radiative transfer rate calculation for this geometry, but since 1.1 square meters of black body surface at 16C (290K) radiates energy at a rate of 441 Watts, I have to believe that when all reducing factors are considered (non-black body, rate energy is radiated from cold plate to the hot plate, solid angle reduction, etc.), the radiative transfer rate from the hot plate to the cold plate will still be much larger than the thermal conduction transfer rate. If true, this lends credence to the argument that in the experiment heat transfer is dominated by radiation, not conduction.

Regarding the determination of the thermal conductivity of gases. Do you know how these values are established? For solid matter between two walls at different temperatures, it seems obvious that there is no convective transfer of heat and it is reasonable to assume there is negligible radiative transfer of heat, which leaves conductive heat transfer at the dominant heat transfer method. As such the measurable total heat transfer rate corresponds to the thermal conduction transfer rate. However, when two walls are separated by a gas, it seems to me to be difficult to separate the convective, radiative and conductive thermal transfer rates. I can envision ways to minimize convective heat transfer, but I don’t know how one goes about separating radiative and conductive heat transfer rates. As I see it, either the measurement of thermal conductivity of a gas accounts for both radiative heat transfer and conductive heat transfer; or the measurement of thermal conductivity of a gas subtracts a radiative transfer rate from a measured total transfer rate. Any information you have would be helpful.

That would be a welcome outcome but sadly I can’t see it happening until perhaps after the people have been woken up by a shock event, such as a crash and burn of our economy and society by pathetically weak leaders like Morrison and soon Shorten.

PM Morrison should take note. He’s a perfect example of what’s wrong and why we are heading down the plug hole. He lacks the moral fortitude and courage to turn things around. It’s not too late for him to grow a backbone but time is running out fast.

There is talk [unverified] of another assassination attempt on Trump recently. The story is that the Russians tipped off trusted elements in the WH that there was a rogue element in the Marine guard attachment They were dismissed and a marine was later killed in a shootout. Who knows.

Why is Trump doing this? He could be spending his time playing golf on the best courses, with the best players in the world.

In my post, in the interests of brevity and not getting too deep in the weeds I said

The story is that the Russians tipped off trusted elements in the WH

The more complete story was that the Russkies found out about the plot while interrogating a “spy”. Well waddaya know: It is now confirmed that they do indeed have a captured spy, a Mr Whelan and an ex marine to boot. Maybe Mr Pompeo wants him back so badly to try him.

Here’s another top column from Donna Laframboise.
It seems Paul Krugman is just another bigoted extremist who has little regard for evidence or data.
That is incredible coming from a Nobel prize winning economist, but irrational people seem to be attracted to the CAGW club.

Krugman did not win a Nobel prize. He won a prize given by a Swedish bank in honour of Nobel. Could you imaging Nobel wanting his name connected with such an appalling area of study as economics. Connecting his name to it dishonours his legacy.

Here again are the TOTAL contributions/responsibility for their so called CAGW according to Mathews et al 2014. These are the TOP 20 emitters since the Ind Rev and Aussies are responsible for 0.006 C of warming over the past 200+ years. That’s a whopping six thousandths of one degree celsius, truly horrific stuff NOT.

Here’s their TABLE 2 from the study. Here’s the link and Table 2 is much easier to understand than my crude attempt at copy and paste.

Table 2. Top 20 contributors to global temperature change, ranked in order of their total climate contribution, and including a breakdown of
the contribution of different types of emissions. All values here are given in C of global temperature change.
Rank Country Total Fossil Fuel CO2 Landuse
CO2 All CO2 NonCO2
GHG All GHG Aerosols
1 United States 0.151 0.143 0.026 0.170 0.044 0.213

“Researchers find bottom of Pacific getting colder, possibly due to Little Ice Age … the researchers obtained data from … depths of approximately two kilometers [sic] … to build a computer model … The model showed that the Pacific Ocean cooled over the course of the 20th century at depths of 1.8 to 2.6 kilometers [sic]. The amount is still not precise, but the researchers suggest it is most likely between 0.02 and 0.08° C. That cooling, the researchers suggest, is likely due to the Little Ice Age, which ran from approximately 1300 until approximately 1870. Prior to that, there was a time known as the Medieval Warm Period, which had caused the deep waters of the Pacific to warm just prior to the cooling it is now experiencing.” [emphasis mine] I know it’s early on Sunday morning, but isn’t that premise completely back-to-front and upside-down?

By Alex Sosnowski with help from Dan Kottlowski and Kristina Pydynowski (what is this, a family affair?) – “Feet and yards of snow forecast for the mountains – Snowfall is likely to be measured in yards over the high country… As much as 10 feet of snow may pile up on the ridges and peaks… Freezing … whiteouts … blizzard conditions … Along with the heavy snow… Large waves will pound the coast”. Perfect! What an incredible planet we live on: welcome to Winter 2019 California-style! Governor Jerry Moonbeam and Big Arnie McDoofus (BAM-BAM to his friends) couldn’t be contacted as they were away skiing the fresh powder…

That’s an easy one for an EE, when you charge and discharge a battery the process is not 100% efficient, it’s somewhere between 80-90% depending on the storage time. Also you can’t store more energy than the chemistry of the battery allows, as the battery becomes full extra energy potential gets wasted.

So if the batteries waste 20% then you need 20% from somewhere else to make it up.

Also the battery system costs energy to construct which emits more CO2 than the panels and inverter alone. Taken together this means the battery backed Solar System will never produce enough energy to offset the CO2 emitted due to their manufacture.

5 Jan: UK Express: Fury as Green MP demands meat is TAXED to stop climate change
By Laura O’Callaghan
Caroline Lucas told delegates at the Oxford Farming Conference an overhaul of Britain’s agri-industrial food system is needed because it is in “crisis” and is favouring consolidation at the expense of human health, ecology and the livelihoods of farmers. In a speech entitled ‘A radical new vision for British agriculture’ delivered on Friday, Ms Lucas set out her vision for farming which included greater attention to animal welfare, fewer pesticides, a reduction in food waste, and adopting a diet with less meat and dairy products. Half of all farmed animal emissions come from beef and lamb, according to research by scientists Joseph Poore and Thomas Nemecek…

Ms Lucas said: “At the risk of incurring the wrath of the energy secretary in particular who said recently that encouraging people to eat less meat would be ‘the worst sort of nanny state ever’, I’d add that we need serious consideration of measures like a meat tax, particularly for beef.
“I accept that British sheep farming is one of the least intensive forms of livestock farming so perhaps a banded system according to production would help, offset for more sustainable meat producers through increased revenue from targeted agri-environment schemes.”…

But NFU vice president Stuart Roberts hit back at her demands, tweeting: “We all share the ambition to address climate change but taxing isn’t the way…

15 Nov 2018: BBC: Roger Harrabin: Climate change: Report says ‘cut lamb and beef’
The number of sheep and cattle in the UK should be reduced by between a fifth and a half to help combat climate change, a report says.
The shift is needed, the government’s advisory Committee on Climate Change (CCC) maintains, because beef and lamb produce most farm greenhouse gases…

The farm union NFU said it did not agree with reducing livestock numbers.
But environmentalists say the recommendations are too timid…
The committee’s advice on producing less red meat is less radical than NHS Eatwell guidelines on healthy eating, which proposes a reduction in consumption of 89% for beef and 63% for lamb, and a 20% decline in dairy products.
BBC News understands that the committee have deliberately taken a more conservative position in order to minimise confrontation with the farmers’ union, the NFU…

***NFU President Minette Batters said: “The NFU has been clear with its position on British farming’s role in tackling climate change – reducing livestock numbers in the UK is not a part of that policy.
“We are disappointed to see the Committee on Climate Change include that recommendation in its report. The report simply does not recognise the environmental benefits grass-fed beef and sheep production brings to the UK.
“It would be a fundamental mistake to design a farming system solely around an approach that mitigates greenhouse gases without any regard to the wider impact of such a policy for our environment and our food supply. It risks producing a one-eyed policy.”…

It’s the methane from fermentation in their rumen that has them in the alarmists’ sights.

Cows chomp off large quantities of coarse grass on the planes and retire to safety in the trees to chew their cud, that is regurgitate balls of grass mixed with bacteria which have already begun a fermentation process, from their rumen. This allows them to break down the coarse cellulose.

According to the coordinator of the project, “the amount of gases collected varies according to the food ingested and the size of the specimen: an adult cow emits about 1,200 liters per day, of which between 250 and 300 are methane.”

At current AEMO gas price the daily output would be worth AUD0.06 for each cow. A large farm with 1000 cows could earn AUD60/day for cow farts. It would take a long time to offset the cost of making cow back-packs.

5 Jan: TimesOfIndia: India’s annual carbon footprint increased but is well on track to meet its global pledges
by Vishwa Mohan
The message is clearly reflected in the country’s second Biennial Update Report (BUR-II) which was made public by the UN climate body on Friday. India submitted this Report early this week…

The BUR-II shows that India’s total GHG emissions have increased from 2.136 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent of the GHG in 2010 to 2.607 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent of GHG in 2014 – compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%…

5 Jan: MinnesotaPublicRadio: Transportation, agriculture edge out electricity as Minnesota’s largest emissions sources
by Elizabeth Dunbar
Minnesota is still failing to meet its goals aimed at addressing climate change, and it’s transportation and agriculture — not coal — that are holding us back, according to a biennial emissions report by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency released this week…
Cars, trucks and other gas-powered vehicles together now produce more greenhouse gas emissions than power plants. While the state still relies heavily on coal, a quarter of the state’s electricity now comes from renewable sources, and that percentage will go up in future years as utilities retire more coal plants.

Agriculture emissions — both from fertilizing row crops and raising livestock — are also significant. The report lists agriculture as the state’s No. 3 emitter, but for the first time, the MPCA included negative carbon emissions from forest regrowth in the report’s agriculture section. Without the negative emissions from forestry as an offset, agriculture’s emissions would roughly match those produced by transportation and electricity, at about 40 million tons of CO2 or the equivalent…

5 Jan: BBC weather: Arctic BLIZZARD WARNING – ‘Extreme weather’ could blanket Europe in SNOW
EUROPEAN cities will be lashed by freezing blizzard conditions as an “extreme” snowstorm looks set to cover the continent and cause travel chaos.
By Oli Smith
BBC meteorologist Sarah Keith-Lucas warned that Europe should brace for even more snow in the coming days
She said: “Further east, we have more cloud sinking south and we will continue to see more snowfall for Austria, eastern Alps, the Balkans and Poland too.
“There is still an unusual amount of snowfall in Turkey and Greece…
“Berlin faces a freeze as well – and Moscow will see -10C by Monday.”

Meteorologist Steve Travis added that several major roads across Europe could be shut down.
He said: “Gusty winds can create near-blizzard conditions in the Alps and foothills.”
“There will be a Local StormMax of 3 feet of snow that will bury the Alps from when snow began on Thursday night into Monday.
“That will be great news for the ski resorts, but travel to the slopes will be extremely difficult…

5 Jan: RenoGazetteJournal: Enough bashing carbon dioxide, the good gas
by Carl Fishel
VIDEO: 1min14sec: Nevada’s snowpack is off to a strong start compared to last year.
Recent months have brought opinion columns from many people who seem to know little about CO2 other than what Al Gore and environmentalist(s) on some governmental payroll have to say about it.
One could have some knowledge about CO2 had they taken biology in high school, if it’s taught in Nevada high schools. Oh, that CO2 — sustenance to the entire plant kingdom, foundation of the world food chain, basis of all life on Earth — is poison. Even a tiny increment — the little bit that we produce by burning “fossil fuels” (nature produces 33 times more) — is quite enough to give the planet a fever. Civilization — survival even — is on the line. Catastrophe looms…READ ALLhttps://www.rgj.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/01/05/enough-bashing-carbon-dioxide-good-gas-fishel/2476979002/

5 Jan: RenoGazetteJournal: Reno forecaster: Winter storm to dump heavy snow this weekend
by Marcella Corona
A winter weather advisory was also issued through 10 p.m. Saturday in the greater Reno-Carson City area, which includes Sparks, Gardnerville and Virginia City.
Leahy said the storm could bring periods of heavy snowfall starting Saturday night…

3 Jan: The Atlantic: Al Gore: America Is Close to a ‘Political Tipping Point’ on Climate Change
The former vice president discusses how the politics of the environment have changed considerably over his decades of advocacy.
by Edward-Isaac Dovere
While he was a senator, through his eight years as vice president, and during his 2000 presidential campaign, Gore was tagged on the campaign trail as a global-warning alarmist obsessed with data and far-off predictions. Now, between the growing support for the Green New Deal in Congress and the presidential candidates railing against climate change, the Democratic Party has made aggressive action central to its developing identity…

Al Gore: I think that we are extremely close to a political tipping point. We may actually be crossing it right about now. The much-vaunted tribalism in American politics has contributed to an odd anomaly, in that the core of one of our political parties is uniquely—in all of the world—still rejecting not just the science, but also the messages from Mother Nature that have pushed toward, and perhaps are pushing across, this political tipping point right now…

Dovere: Every time there’s a new report on climate change, activists say, “We’ve got to get going before it’s too late.” And every time there’s a new report, climate-change deniers say, “Well, you said the world was ending the last time.” Do you think there’s actually a point when it will be too late?

Munich Airport, Germany’s second biggest, said 120 flights were cancelled and others were delayed while workers cleared runways of snow and removed ice from planes…
Austrian railway company OeBB said several train connections were suspended due to the avalanche risk. Authorities closed several roads including around Bischofshofen, which is hosting the annual Four Hills ski jump tournament this weekend, following more than 50 centimetres of fresh snow overnight…
Meanwhile, some 600 residents and tourists were stuck in the village of Soelktal following a road closure, the station reported…

Separately, authorities in Greece reported travel disruptions due to snowfall in the north of the country. As the record-breaking snowfalls engulfed much of central Europe, bringing the Continent the coldest Christmas in 120 years, a rare sight was seen: snow on Greek and Italian beaches…
VIDEO: 5min58sec: Europe Freezes: Snow on Greek & Italian Beaches

5 Jan: UK Sun: COLD SNAP UK weather – Snow forecast to blanket parts of Britain as -10C polar vortex sparks ‘mayhem’ NHS warning
Met Office weather forecasts also show yellow weather warnings for 70mph winds on Monday and Tuesday
By Thomas Burrows and Dan Hall
Dr Nick Scriven, president of the Society for Acute Medicine, said the cold snap would heap pressure on overstretched NHS services.
He said: “Influenza is here and is already impacting the NHS and, with colder weather starting to set in, this will further stress already stretched services.
“I and many colleagues across the country are anticipating mayhem this weekend as temperatures drop, but it will come as no surprise to us.”…

A cold weather alert was issued for the Midlands and northern England.
The level two alert is for social and healthcare services in northern and western areas until midnight tonight as there is a severe health risk for vulnerable patients in the freezing conditions.
Dr Emer O’Connell, public health consultant at Public Health England, said: “Every winter thousands of people die a death that is linked to cold.
“For the next few days it is really important for us all to keep a look out for the people we know who could be affected, and make sure they get the help and support they need to stay well this winter.”…https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8128505/uk-weather-snow-forecast-to-blanket-parts-of-britain-as-10c-polar-vortex-sparks-mayhem-nhs-warning/

5 Jan: Xinhua: Snowfall disrupts life in Indian-controlled Kashmir
by Peerzada Arshad Hamid
Photo taken on Jan. 5, 2019 shows stranded trucks on a closed highway after a snowfall in Qazigund area of Anantnag district, south of Srinagar City, the summer capital of Indian-controlled Kashmir. Normal life in Indian-controlled Kashmir was Saturday disrupted by heavy snowfall that lashed the region, officials said.

SRINAGAR, Indian-controlled Kashmir, Jan. 5 (Xinhua) — Normal life in Indian-controlled Kashmir was Saturday disrupted by heavy snowfall that lashed the region, officials said…
The snowfall has cut both surface as well as aerial connectivity to Srinagar.
“The accumulation of snow on the roads in Srinagar and elsewhere has disrupted the movement of vehicles in the city and on inter district roads,” an official of mechanical engineering department said. “Our department has pressed in snow clearance machines to clear the roads and allow vehicles to ply on it smoothly.”…

The region is currently reeling under 40-day cold harsh spell of winter (locally called Chillai Kalan). The period starts from Dec. 21 and lasts until Jan. 31. Rooftops, trees and fields in the region are completely draped with snow…
A government spokesman said flight operations at Srinagar airport were temporarily suspended on Friday owing to bad weather and accumulation of snow on the runway. The operations were affected on Saturday morning as well.
“Flights have been lined up at the tarmac and are waiting for the weather to improve,” an official at the airport said. “Even the morning flights were cancelled due to snowfall and poor visibility”…

The snowfall has led to closure of 434-km Srinagar-Leh highway due to heavy snowfall at Zojilla pass. An traffic department official said at least three feet snow has accumulated at Zojila Pass and around 1.5 feet snow has accumulated in Sonamarg.
Authorities said traffic on the Srinagar-Jammu highway, too, have been suspended in wake of accumulation of snow near Banihal tunnel…

People in the snowbound areas are urged to take precautions and not to venture on steep slopes during the next 48 hours.
Reports said the snowfall so far has claimed two lives. A 75-year-old woman died of cold while travelling amid snow at Sadna Top in Karnah, apparently due to cold. Another person was killed after falling from a rooftop while he was clearing snow in Plan area of Bandipora district…http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-01/05/c_137721900.htm

5 Jan: Xinhua: Feature: Drought-affected Afghans welcome first winter snowfall
Hundreds of overjoyed Kabul residents poured to the streets on Saturday to welcome and celebrate the first winter snowfall in the Afghan capital after long-lasting draughts in the war-battered country.
Afghans believed that concerns about drought, water shortage and fatal air pollution would somehow be eased as they were joyfully watching the snow, with the capital’s nearby hills and mountains covered with white snow blanket.

Kabul residents seemed to worry less about the future of their country because of this snowfall and more snowfalls in the coming months, which is expected to end the drought and lead to higher groundwater level.
“Continued snowfall causes ground water increase and help us grow various crops. In the past, people faced harsh problems regarding water shortage in the country,” Rahimullah, a resident of Kabul’s Qargha locality who seemed extremely happy with the natural bless, told Xinhua.
Apart from Kabul, some other provinces also witnessed promising snowfall in the last few days.

Some poor households struggled to heat up their rooms as the snowfalls further brought down the temperature.
Harsh winter and possible heavy snowfalls will affect thousands of displaced families, who mostly migrated to the capital from conflict-affected areas and live in tents in the freezing weather…

5 Jan: Sacramento Bee: With snow falling in the Sierra, weather service advises caution
By Cassie Dickman
A Pacific storm moving across Northern California on Saturday is making driving conditions in the mountains hazardous, prompting the National Weather Service to discourage traveling into higher elevations.
“Snow has started to fall over the mountains. Conditions will continue to worsen this afternoon,” the Sacramento office of the weather service said in a tweet Saturday afternoon. “If you are traveling over the mountains, be prepared for slow travel and carry chains.”…https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article223979270.html

3 Jan: Yale Environment 360: How China’s Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is a colossal infrastructure plan that could transform the economies of nations around the world. But with its focus on coal-fired power plants, the effort could obliterate any chance of reducing emissions and tip the world into catastrophic climate change.
By Isabel Hilton
It is a plan to finance and build roads, railways, bridges, ports, and industrial parks abroad, beginning with China’s neighbors in Central, South, and Southeast Asia and eventually reaching Western Europe and across the Pacific to Latin America. The more than 70 countries that have formally signed up to participate account for two-thirds of the world’s population, 30 percent of global GDP, and an estimated 75 percent of known energy reserves…
BRI has the potential to transform economies in China’s partner countries. Yet it could also tip the world into catastrophic climate change…

While China has imposed a cap on coal consumption at home, its coal and energy companies are on a building spree overseas…
Chinese companies are involved in at least 240 coal projects in 25 of the Belt and Road countries, including in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Serbia, Kenya, Ghana, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. China is also financing about half of proposed new coal capacity in Egypt, Tanzania, and Zambia.

China’s coal and energy companies have been at the heart of the country’s industrial revolution. From 1990 to 2015, China’s annual coal consumption went from 1.05 billion tons to 3.97 billion tons and provided more than 70 percent of China’s energy in its pursuit of rapid GDP growth…

Later that year (2015), 190 countries agreed under the Paris climate accord to try to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius (C) and as close to 1.5 degrees C as possible…

***The energy finance think tank Carbon Tracker estimates that this will require a complete phaseout of coal worldwide by 2040. That, in turn, means that 100 GW a year, or one coal plant a day, will need to close from now to 2040, a goal that is directly undercut by China’s coal investments…

So far, the majority of BRI projects are energy-related: Since 2000, Chinese-led policy banks have invested $160 billion in overseas energy projects, almost as much as the World Bank and regional development banks. But unlike the World Bank, 80 percent of China’s overseas energy investments went to fossil fuels — $54.6 billion to oil, $43.5 billion to coal, and $18.8 billion to natural gas — compared with only 3 percent to solar and wind and 17 percent to often-controversial hydro projects…

Yale bio: Isabel Hilton is a London-based writer, broadcaster, and commentator. She is also editor of http://www.chinadialogue.net, the bilingual Chinese-English environmental website devoted to environment and climate change.

Wikipedia: Isabel Hilton presented The World Tonight 1995–98 on BBC Radio 4 and from 1999 has presented Nightwaves on BBC Radio 3. Concurrently from March 2005 to July 2007 she was editor and then editor-in-chief of the openDemocracy.net website and is now the editor of Chinadialogue.

My latest article, shows just how evil absolute temperatures really are. They are not quite as evil as CO2, but CO2 has been quietly increasing absolute temperatures, while everybody has been busy looking at temperature anomalies.
.

Global warming temperature distributions. (I know that this is a boring title, but the article is incredibly exciting !!!)
========================================

Where else can you see 10.0 and 15.0 degrees Celsius of global warming?

Using a single number to represent global warming, like 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius of global warming, makes it hard to see how bad the problem really is. Is 2.0 degrees Celsius of global warming a major change from what we have now, or is it a minor change?

What is the solution to this problem? The answer is to look at temperature distributions, rather than single numbers. Temperature distributions make global warming multi-dimensional, rather than a one-dimensional number. Temperature distributions show how the temperature varies with latitude, elevation, proximity to the ocean, size of the landmass, UHI (urban heat island effect), and many other factors.

Comparing the “normal” temperature distribution, to a “global warming” temperature distribution, makes it easier to judge the size of the problem. Are “alarmists” trying to turn a molehill into a mountain? Or are “deniers” trying to turn a mountain into a molehill?

This article will show you the temperature distributions for a range of global warming “amounts”. People with weak hearts should not look at the more extreme amounts of global warming. Seeing 10.0 or 15.0 degrees Celsius of global warming on a graph, may be too much for those with a vivid imagination.

Wonderful to see Dr Curry’s recent article in the Australian newspaper using data and evidence to throw more doubt on the extremist’s claims about dangerous SLR.

“ALARMIST SEA RISE SCENARIOS UNLIKELY, SAYS CLIMATE SCIENTIST JUDITH CURRY
Date: 12/12/18 The Australian
“A catastrophic rise in sea levels is unlikely this century, with recent experience falling within the range of natural variability over the past several thousand years, according to a report on peer-reviewed studies by US climate scientist Judith Curry.
Writing in The Australian today, Dr Curry says predictions of a 21st-century sea level rise of more than 60cm are increasingly difficult to justify, even if the predicted amount of global warming is correct.

The review coincides with debate about whether some warnings about climate change relied too heavily on worst-case scenarios.

Dr Curry, a professor emeritus form Georgia Institute of Technology, said extreme, barely possible values of sea level rise were driving policies and local adaptation plans. She said an additional sea level rise of 60cm or less over a century could be a relatively minor problem if it was managed appropriately.

She said there was not yet any convincing evidence of a human fingerprint on global sea level rise because of the large changes driven by natural variability. An increase in the rate of global sea level rise since 1995 is being caused by ice loss from Greenland, she said. Greenland ice loss was larger during the 1930s, which was also associated with the warm phase of the Atlantic Ocean circulation pattern.

Dr Curry said predictions of sea level rise depended on climate models to predict the correct amount of warming.

Based on current greenhouse gas emissions, temperature rises to 2100 have been predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to be 3C.

However, there were reasons to think the climate models were predicting too much warming. She said observed warming for the past two decades was smaller than the average warming predicted by climate models.

When compared with observations over the past 150 years, climate models produced too much warming in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, she said”.

4 Jan: World Nuclear News: India to bring 21 more reactors online by 2031
India currently expects to bring 21 new nuclear power reactors with a combined generating capacity of 15,700 MWe into operation by 2031, the country’s minister of state for the Department of Atomic Energy and the Prime Minister’s Office told parliament yesterday.

“At present, there are nine nuclear power reactors at various stages of construction.” These include two units in each of the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Haryana, plus three in Tamil Nadu. All these units are scheduled to be completed by 2024-2025, Singh was cited as saying by The Times of India.
“In addition, 12 more nuclear power reactors have been accorded administrative approval and financial sanction by the government in June 2017,” he told parliament. “Thus, 21 nuclear power reactors, with an installed capacity of 15,700 MWe are under implementation, envisaged for progressive completion by the year 2031.”

Singh also noted that five sites have been granted “in principle” approval to establish a further 28 reactors. These sites are Jaitapur in Maharashtra, Kovvada in Andhra Pradesh, Chhaya Mithi Virdi in Gujarat, Haripur in West Bengal and Bhimpur in Madhya Pradesh…

“All wind farms operating today in Poland will be scrapped by 2035, with no new turbines built to replace them, stipulates draft “Energy Policy of Poland until 2040” presented by Ministry of Energy on Friday. ”

There was an EF 4 in Manitoba, CA. The only one in all of N. America. We here in the states came close to breaking the all time low for tornado incidence in the adjusted count.https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/adj.html
What makes this more remarkable than it may appear on it’s face is that the vast majority of the counts for several years now have been made up of mostly EF-0, 1, and 2s. Weak storms, many of which would have gone unreported even a few years ago because we simply did not have the doppler coverage.

In my part of Indiana we have had mild thunderstorms during the tornado season for several years running. The worst being some small hail. It has been years since I’ve seen the pale green skies that usually indicate conditions are right for tornado formation. I attribute that, at least in part, to relatively mild highs and much less temperature contrast over the last few years and that probably has a lot to do with the increase in water vapor. During almost all of July through the first couple weeks of August this summer night time lows have been much higher than they typically have been in the past. Too warm to even enjoy a camp fire.

4 Jan: BusinessGreen: Amber Rudd attacks ‘damaging’ Hastings solar farm proposal
by Michael Holder
Former energy and climate secretary and MP for Hastings & Rye argues solar expansion should not come ‘at the expense of our natural environment’
Former Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd has launched a campaign against proposals to install solar panels in a country park in her Hastings & Rye constituency, arguing such a move “would damage our much-valued local green space”.
The proposals, put forward by the local Labour-controlled council, could potentially see two 1MW ground-mounted solar arrays installed in Hastings Country Park, as well as a third at Upper Wilting Farm.

In a statement council leader Peter Chowney said local authorities and national governments must do “everything they possibly can” to cut emissions and avoid “catastrophic consequences” of climate change. He also criticised government policies restricting onshore wind farms in England and cuts to the feed-in tariff subsidies for solar.
“If the studies we’re commissioning reveal that the solar arrays have significant negative environmental consequences, particularly for the neighbouring Site of Special Scientific Interest, then we wouldn’t go ahead with it,” said the Labour councillor.
“But in the end, if the only reason for opposing it is one of aesthetics, that would not seem to be a good enough reason to reject the proposal. The challenges we face from catastrophic consequences of climate change are far too great to reject proposals for sustainable energy generation solely because it spoils the view… The only responsible thing to do is to act now, and install sustainable energy generation wherever we can.”https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/3068823/amber-rudd-attacks-damaging-hastings-solar-farm-proposal

3 Jan: Hastings Observer: Hastings and Rye MP’s petition against plans for solar panels in country park
by Richard Gladstone
But Ms Rudd is urging the council to reconsider the plans.
She said: “I do not believe that the country park is the best location.
“As a former Climate Change Secretary I understand the huge importance of encouraging the production of renewable energy through resources like solar panels is an important part of the solution for our future energy needs.“But solar panels would detract from the natural beauty of this lovely green space we are lucky to have.“Hastings Country Park is ‘the jewel in the crown of Hastings’ and a very special area.

“It is therefore vital that our residents have the chance to voice their opinions on these proposals. I encourage residents to sign my petition to make their voice heard.”…

6 Jan: UK Times: Taller turbines for Shetland plan prompt call for inquiry
by Mark Macaskill
Environmentalists are calling for a public inquiry into plans to erect a giant wind farm on the remote island of Shetland.
Viking Energy won consent from Scottish ministers in 2012 to build 103 turbines, each 145 metres high, but it now wants to increase the height of the structures to 155 metres. The move is said to have caused anxiety among residents who oppose the scheme. There are concerns over its potential impact on tourism and the environment.

18 Dec: Shetland News: MoD objects to Viking Energy as wind turbines could undermine air defence
by Hans J Marter
THE PLANNED Viking Energy wind farm could reduce the country’s ability to detect planes entering the UK’s airspace and hence undermine national security, it has been claimed.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) has now strongly objected to plans by the developer to increase the size of its turbines from 145 metres to 155 metres…
…it is not clear whether the MoD objects generally to building the wind farm or just to the current application of increasing the size of the turbines.
If so, the MoD’s intervention could also have repercussions on the other planned and proposed wind farm developments, mainly in Yell…

The Tingwall, Weisdale and Whiteness community council as well as the Sandsting and Aithsting community council have both also objected to the application on grounds of increased visual impact…
The MoD has also objected to the Mossy Hill wind farm application, which is being processed by Shetland Islands Council’s planning department.

Interesting comments on the SnowyHydro website:
“Snowy 2.0 (and the existing snowyhydro business) will ‘firm’ up new intermittent renewable generation, filling the gaps in energy supply and underpinning the stability and security of the system. Our modelling shows there will be a need for much more storage than just Snowy 2.0. The NEM will need a mix of storage options including household and commercial-scale batteries and other pumped-hydro projects. There will also be a role for demand management and behind-the-meter solutions.”In other words, when costing “cheap” intermittents like wind and solar, the cost of “firming” must be added to determine the real costs – double the investment, and we pay.
But hide the facts: “All publicly available chapters of the 2017 feasibility study are available for download below. Please note: some of the study chapters have been withheld as they include commercially confidential information.” Isn’t it owned by our government?
“From the early 2030s, we expect there will be the need and business case for further expansions of the Snowy Scheme (ie. Snowy 3.0 and 4.0) to keep up with the increase in renewables in the market and the growing requirement for large-scale storage and on-demand generation.”
“An example of when vast amounts of storage would be needed include wind or solar droughts. In South Australia across the financial years of 2015 and 2016, there was a deficit between average wind production over a two-week period, and the minimum wind production over two weeks, of 60GWh. If a 100MW battery was fully charged at 0.129GWh, it would be only be able to cover 0.2% (or a few hours) of this two-week energy deficit. Snowy 2.0, however, could generate energy to fill the gaps throughout the two-week period without needing to recharge.”

6 Jan: UK Times: Idle wind farms pull in £125m for dumping energy
Scots turbines get most of National Grid payoff
by Mark Macaskill
Green energy companies were handed record sums to switch off turbines in 2018, with some Scottish wind farms generating millions of pounds to “discard” up to a third of potential output.
Analysis of data published by National Grid shows that constraint payments to wind farm operators hit £125m — 15% more than the previous highest sum in 2017.

The lion’s share, £115m, was paid to sites in Scotland. Operators of onshore wind farms, most of which are north of the border, receive constraint payments to power down turbines when electricity supply outstrips local demand and bottlenecks in the grid prevent exports.

And it’s made of plastic. So will they build another barrier system to collect the remnants of this failed system?
And all to collect what? According to recent research, there doesn’t appear to be any large quantities of large plastics out there.

I have to say that this idea of cleaning up plastic debris in the Pacific Ocean is commendable. However getting this Oceancleanup device to work must be frought with difficulties in such an environment. Wish them all the best with this a project . .
GeoffW

Thanks Robert. With C64s, looks like late 70s. More railway settlements than stated – they were generally 30 miles apart, not 100. And there was one settlement that wasn’t mainly railway, with a phone repeater station, met office and airport. Knew the place well…

5 Jan: The Economist: Will Europe’s Green parties be the new leaders of the political left?
Or have they reached the limits to growth?
LONG KNOWN for its bicycles, Amsterdam is taking recycling to a whole new level. Last year it began extracting used toilet paper from sewage plants and mixing it into asphalt, which helps reduce the noise from cars. The city is cutting down on cars, too: its “auto-avoidant city” strategy will make many streets one-way and raise parking tariffs to €7.50 ($8.25) per hour. Its coal-fired power plant is shutting down, and the city plans to eliminate gas heating in homes by 2040, replacing it with electric heat pumps and centralised neighbourhood hot-water systems. A green-roof subsidy programme encourages owners to cover buildings with turf and moss.
This is what it looks like when a Green party takes power…

Since last April, GreenLeft has been the most popular party on the Dutch left. Germany’s Greens reached the same milestone in October, overtaking the once-mighty Social Democrats (SPD). Belgium’s two Green parties (one French-speaking, one Flemish) are polling at high levels. In Luxembourg a coalition including the Greens took power in November and promptly abolished fares on public transport…
The German and Dutch Greens owe part of their success to the vicissitudes of politics. In both countries centre-left parties entered grand coalitions with centre-right ones during the financial crisis, making themselves targets for anti-establishment voters…
And both countries’ Greens have charismatic young leaders: Mr Klaver in the Netherlands, the duo of Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck in Germany…

The next big test will come at the European Parliament elections in May. The Green-European Free Alliance (Greens-EFA) group is among the smaller groups in the parliament, with just 50 out of 751 seats…
Still, beyond Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium, there is little sign of a Green wave…
In southern Europe economic hardship has made the Greens’ post-materialist values a handicap. In 1989, 11.5% of Italians listed environmental protection as an important issue, nearly as many as in Britain. But by 2008, after two decades of stagnation, that had fallen to 2.4%, well below most of northern Europe…

Meanwhile, France’s main Green party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV), has been hobbled by feuds and by a first-past-the-post electoral system. The EELV had its greatest success at the European election of 2009, winning 16% of the vote. But it was hurt by its collaboration with the unpopular government of François Hollande, and has struggled to find charismatic leaders to replace earlier ones such as Daniel Cohn-Bendit…

It is also in France that the latest challenge to the Greens has emerged: the gilets jaunes (yellow jackets) movement. The protests began in opposition to a fuel tax introduced by Mr Macron’s government to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Their explosive spread highlighted the problem that people do not like paying for expensive green policies, as opposed to small-bore ones, out of their own pockets.

Mr Eickhout thinks Mr Macron’s mistake was to introduce a carbon tax without using the revenues to aid those on the whom it falls hardest. To tackle such problems, Green parties have broadened their platforms far beyond environmental issues. In Germany Mr Habeck has proposed a social-security guarantee, similar to a basic income, to convince working-class voters that the party is not only for tree-huggers. In the Netherlands Mr Klaver has made tax avoidance by multinational corporations one of his signature issues…

The ‘social left’ (for want of a better term) has been suffering. Therefore the Left Vote will now be forced to go ‘Green Left’ if they want to remain Left?

Wouldn’t the collapse of the ‘Social Left’ be because their previous voter base has come to realise they would rather vote for someone else? If the ‘Left’ existed in the numbers suggested then would they not still be voting ‘Social Left’ and by extension would the ‘Social Left’ not actually be collapsing?

I am willing to accept that Your Political System May Vary, but if a party is suffering because it has been losing voter support, it means the voter support has already moved, and not that the voters need to move because their previous party no longer exists.

An earlier point being made here however is important;

…economic hardship has made the Greens’ post-materialist values a handicap

If you are economically healthy then a forest is where you go to see cute furry animals.

If you are living on the literal edge a forest contains both lunch and wood to cook it with.

5 Jan: Napa Valley Register: PG&E could sell gas division, or seek bankruptcy, as Camp Fire woes mount
by Dale Kasler and Tony Bizjak, The Sacramento Bee
PG&E, facing billions in potential losses from the Camp Fire and other wildfires, is reportedly exploring the sale of its natural gas division or a bankruptcy filing as it tries to deal with its staggering financial liabilities.

NPR, quoting anonymous sources, said Friday that PG&E might sell the gas division as well as some of its real estate, including its headquarters in San Francisco, to raise cash for wildfire claims. The entire effort is part of a strategy code-named “Project Falcon,” NPR…

Separately, Reuters reported that PG&E is again considering filing for bankruptcy as a way of dealing with its liabilities…
The Reuters report sent PG&E’s stock price tumbling $5.10 a share, to $19, in after-hours trading following the close of the market…

Feeling hot? These pictures of a European snowstorm will help cool you down
If you are struggling to cool down as Australia’s summer heats up, take a look at some of the most captivating pictures from snow-covered Europe…

but click on it and you get the following. no need to guess which bits ABC inserted into the AP report! most of Australia is not “feeling hot”, nor are we sweating through “a long, hot summer”:

meanwhile, Sky Australia ads now appear in the commercial breaks on Fox News, and there’s usually some CAGW nonsense, such as today’s it’s 46C and you can fry eggs on the road rubbish, complete with an egg actually frying.
you would think it was referring to the whole of Australia the way it was presented.

Friday was the first of the Summer ‘biggies’, with peak power touching 30000MW, the highest of the Summer so far.

At that time coal fired power was delivering 19600MW, and while seemingly not all that remarkable, as it was only 65% of all generated power at that time, what is remarkable is that the total Nameplate for all 48 coal fired Units still in operation at the 16 coal fired plants is only 23000MW.

There are currently four of those Units off line on the Friday, so those remaining coal fired Units on line at that time delivered that 19600MW of power at a Capacity Factor of 92%, and that is remarkable.

Take away just one of those coal fired power plants and the grid will struggle. They’ll do all they can to keep it operating, but they know hand on heart that it won’t be coming from wind or solar power.

Nancy Palsy had that big word “existential” fed to her by and aide. She could never come up with it on her own talking off script. Climate Change right now serves two purposes for the democrats. It is being used to attempt to get away from discussions of the wall and the old guard have to pay it lip service because the new crop of ignorant radicals in the house demands that they do so. The democrat party really has a problem. The new crop is not happy with the old and if the old does not start pushing the things the new wants there will be a growing fracture between the two. Thus the old left is being pushed even further left by the newbies.

I can’t recall any president doing this kind of thing so frequently and allowing the press so much time to ask questions as he prepares depart the WH. He seems to prefer these less formal and unscheduled type pressers to the scheduled ones in the WH press room. I think in part because it is just the way he prefers to operate but also because there is less opportunity for the Jim Acosta types of the press to grandstand and hog the mic in such circumstances.

BTW this truck driver just got a pay raise. Salary increased by $150.00 per week. I know who to thank for the conditions that allowed my pay as a truck driver to be increased to the highest it’s ever been after adjusting for inflation, and it isn’t Obama or Nancy Pelosi or any democrat.

Thanks Annie. I noticed your comment received a red thumb. Think of the kind of miserable creature that did that. A person that dislikes seeing an average person who has nothing to do with their own situation become a little better off by their own efforts. Now that is HATE!

Those people are quite astonishing RAH. A few years ago I wouldn’t have believed people could display such negativity and nastiness but I have seen too much lately to doubt that it exists.
We just have to soldier on and enjoy what is good about life and cope as best possible with the bad parts. That there is bad stuff unnecessarily is an indictment of the state of mind of certain controllers, bossy-boots, misery-guts and those who are the nelly-know-it-alls who think they know best for everyone else.

That’s not the sort of thing a farmer wants to hear ; I was hoping for another decade or so of this phase of the PDO.
Relative to the climate (S.W. Nth. Island NZ) here , which has been predominantly favourable for pasture performance since about 2000, 1975-1999 was mostly droughty, possibly a few more extreme cold mornings.

“The five most popular vehicle models among Republicans, for example, are all trucks, with the ubiquitous Ford F-150 leading the way. Among Democrats, the Subaru Outback is the most popular choice. If you drive a truck, you’re probably a Republican. If you drive a Subaru, you’re probably a Democrat. Donald Trump won every single state in which the Ford F-150 is the most popular vehicle (even Pennsylvania). He won all but four of the states in which the Chevy Silverado is the most popular vehicle, including Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Hillary Clinton handily won the states where people prefer Subarus.”

Here’s the 2006 Vinther et al study of Greenland’ s long instrumental temp record. This is a very long study over 200 years and co-authors are prominent alarmist UK scientists Dr Jones and Dr Briffa.

Looking at temps over this long period we find that much earlier decades are warmer than the last few decades and they even hold up well against some of the decades over one hundred years ago back in the 1800s.

Here’s the link and TABLE 8. So what will be their excuse when the AMO changes to the cool phase, perhaps sometime in the 2020s? Or has it started already? Who knows?

So while you folks down under deal with the heat we yanks deal with the opposite and we had a lot of opposite already with more coming. As I write this the NW US is being pummeled by a storm with more of them in line to come ashore. Avalanche warnings abound. This after the SW desert saw exceptional snow and cold. So far in my part of the country in Indiana the winter has been mild. But if my favorite long to medium range forecaster is correct Old Man winter has not forgotten us. Joe Bastardi and his guys at weatherbell are forecasting some heavy winter conditions coming for the eastern US with unusually cold temps hitting the Ohio Valley and points south and east starting about the middle of this month and lasting into March. We’re talking some extended periods of sub zero F cold for many of us, including my area. I suspect this is one of those years when we will see snow cover in all 50 states at some point.

Green activists threaten growth
The Australian – 12 hours ago
Despite repeated losses in the courts, green groups have successfully delayed development of the Carmichael coalmine, which may now

7 Jan: CatallaxyFiles: Monday Forum: January 7, 2019
(SCROLL DOWN)
OldOzzie #2900769, posted on January 7, 2019 at 10:31 am
Green activists threaten growth (LINK, THE AUSTRALIAN)
Rural and regional communities have a lot to be concerned about as green groups prepare to lay out their demands for the coming federal election. The tactics that have delayed and diminished Adani’s plans to open a new minerals province in the Galilee Basin in Queensland with the Carmichael mine are now seen as the leading edge of a much bigger agenda. As Resources Minister Matt Canavan tells The Australian today, anti-development groups are prosecuting multinational agendas that rob regional communities of economic growth…
In a new twist, the Australian Greens are seeking to have any development in the Galilee Basin blocked by federal legislation on climate grounds…

Here’s the 2006 Vinther et al study of Greenland’ s long instrumental temp record. This is a very long study over 200 years and co-authors are prominent alarmist UK scientists Dr Jones and Dr Briffa.

Looking at temps over this long period we find that much earlier decades are warmer than the last few decades and they even hold up well against some of the decades over one hundred years ago back in the 1800s.

Here’s the link and TABLE 8. So what will be their excuse when the AMO changes to the cool phase, perhaps sometime in the 2020s? Or has it started already? Who knows?

6 Jan: HellenicShippingNews: Xinhua: Mongolia’s coal exports hit all-time high in 2018
The landlocked Asian country exported a total of 36.5 million tons of coal in 2018, the ministry said in a statement.
The figure is an increase of 3.2 million tons from the previous year, the added the ministry…
The rise was largely attributable to Prime Minister Ukhnaa Khurelsukh’s first official visit to China in April since assuming office in 2017, according to the ministry…
—

Reuters looks for a negative!

4 Jan: Reuters: Kim’s vision of a coal-fueled North Korean future may be tough to realize
by Ju-min Park, Jane Chung; Additional reporting by Wonil Lee, Joyce Lee in SEOUL, and Henning Gloystein in SINGAPORE
When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un used his New Year speech to highlight coal as a “primary front” in developing the economy…
South Korea-based analysts and North Korean defectors report that with sanctions still blocking most coal exports, the North has put more of its stockpile to use domestically.
“My acquaintances in North Hamgyong province told me… they got power for 14-15 hours a day in 2018, versus 8-10 hours in 2017,” said Kim Young Hui, a defector who now works as an economist at South Korea’s state-run Korea Development Bank.
A “highly noticeable” increase in electricity in 2018 compared to the year before has increased power availability for many homes and boosted the operations of factories and trains, said Kang Mi-jin, a defector who now writes about North Korea for the website Daily NK and speaks to sources inside the North…

In the New Year speech, Kim Jong Un called for the coal industry to focus on helping power stations “normalize electricity generation without letup.”…
A source who regularly speaks to Pyongyang residents told Reuters that pre-ordering coal for boilers was no longer necessary because it had become more abundant.
“People had to book coal early, about two months before running boilers when the weather gets chilly. But thanks to reduced coal exports, it is not hard to buy it anymore after last year. Sanctions have been tougher, but North Koreans can buy coal whenever they want if they have money,” the source said…

North Korea generates nearly 50 percent of its electricity from seven coal power plants and one oil-fired plant, and the rest from hydroelectric facilities…
In the last year it has added generators to the biggest coal power complex and built a new hydro power plant…

30 Dec: ScienceAlert: Japan Discovered a Rare-Earth Mineral Deposit That Can Supply The World For Centuries
by Jeremy Berke
Earlier this year, researchers found a deposit of rare-earth minerals off the coast of Japan that could supply the world for centuries, according to a study.
The study (LINK), published in the journal Nature in April 2018, says the deposit contains 16 million tons of the valuable metals…

There’s enough yttrium to meet the global demand for 780 years, dysprosium for 730 years, europium for 620 years, and terbium for 420 years.
The cache lies off of Minamitori Island, about 1,150 miles (1,850 km) southeast of Tokyo. It’s within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, so the island nation has the sole rights to the resources there.

Michael Baume writes in Spectator Australia this week in reference to a research paper by Alex Robson at Sydney University entitled “It Doesn’t Have To Be This Way: Australia’s Energy Crisis, America’s Energy Surplus” which highlights the wrong direction energy policy in Australia is taking.

The article is written in Baume’s usual obscurantist fashion but he’s nevertheless managed to mention Labor’s “economically destructive targets” but it’s doubtful any but the committed, such as I am, would have penetrated that far into the article.

That marvellous piece of incomprehensible legislative legerdemain, the RET, is not explicitly referenced; it seems that nobody knows it’s there inexorably ratcheting up and destroying the Australian economy.

6 Jan: Guardian: Katharine Hayhoe: ‘A thermometer is not liberal or conservative’
by Jonathan Watts
Q: In 2018, we have seen forest fires in the Arctic circle; record high temperatures in parts of Australia, Africa and the US; floods in India; and devastating droughts in South Africa and Argentina. Is this a turning point?

A: This year has hit home how climate change loads the dice against us by taking naturally occurring weather events and amplifying them. We now have attribution studies that show how much more likely or stronger extreme weather events have become as a result of human emissions. For example, wildfires in the western US now burn nearly twice the area they would without climate change, and almost 40% more rain fell during Hurricane Harvey than would have otherwise. So we are really feeling the impacts and know how much humanity is responsible…

Q: This year has also seen the rise of disruptive campaigning, for example Extinction Rebellion in the UK; the student strikes led by Greta Thunberg; and direct action in the US and Canada against oil pipelines. Is there a point when scientists also have to speak out more forcefully?

A: We are moving in that direction. Scientists are not just disembodied brains floating in a glass jar, we are humans who want the same thing every other human wants, a safe place to live on this planet we call home. So while our work must continue to be unbiased and objective, increasingly we are raising our voices, adding to the clear message that climate change is real and humans are responsible, the impacts are serious and we must act now, if we want to avoid the worst of them…https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jan/06/katharine-hayhoe-interview-climate-change-scientist-crisis-hope

it seems MSM has cracked down on coverage of “Yellow Vests” – I see people comment on websites how they are seeing almost nothing in UK/US & presumably it’s the same in Australia.
officially, 50,000 took part across France – with continuing public support – in Act 8 on Sat 5 Jan. Ruptly has the best clip from Paris:

3 Jan: BBC: French Gilets Jaunes: Who is protest leader Eric Drouet?
Eric Drouet, one of the leading public figures in France’s yellow vests protests, was arrested for a second time late on Wednesday, prompting claims of police harassment.

He was arrested on suspicion of organising an unofficial protest in Paris, after he encouraging people to gather and lay candles near the Champs-Elysées for those who had died during months of protests. The demonstration was aimed at “shocking public opinion”, as he put it.
His swift arrest prompted one political leader to label the protest leader’s detention an “abuse of power” by the government. By Thursday afternoon he was free again.
“Everything that happens here is political,” he told reporters after his release. “We have been questioned at least four or five times on the same topics.”…

Mr Drouet is a lorry driver by trade, and rose to prominence online during the emergence of the gilets jaunes or “yellow vests” movement in October and November 2018…

He is facing trial for his first arrest in June.
He was detained again on 2 January, suspected of organising another undeclared protest, after going on social media with a call for “action”. This time, a few dozen people took part and no yellow vests were involved…

As well as guaranteeing public order, Mr Macron criticised unnamed individuals claiming to speak for the French people.
He said they were “the mouth-pieces of a hate-filled crowd who target elected representatives, security forces, journalists, Jews, foreigners and homosexuals.”https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46745656

In Colombia it was natural variability causing the problem, not human induced CO2.

‘From 2008 to 2013, Colombia’s coffee production dropped approximately 33% due to the El Niño and La Niña inclement weather patterns, when rains, clouds and hot spells all increased.

‘The country has worked to increase its production since then, and this year Colombian coffee farmers are expected to produce 13.3 million bags of coffee beans — roughly 1.8 billion pounds — up about 23% from 2013 levels.’

Let us consider just METOP A for now and further let us consider that it orbits in Exactly 100 minutes and does exactly 14 orbits every day (2×7 overflying any spot on its North/South traverse of the globe at 12 hour intervals). The reasons for these somewhat artificial values are just to illustrate the problems of evaluating the satellite data.
Once every orbit the satellite is able to download its collected data as sensed by its instruments to the ground station somewhere above the artic circle but always in view which ever orbit the satellite is currently on.
A start on the mathematics is now possible. With a 360-degree circumference divided by 7 equals 51.5 degrees coverage. Let us assume that the instrumentation is looking at 26 degrees to either side of its track, thus giving a very small overlap as it crosses the Equator. The swathe being about 5,790 km wide. Let us also assume that the swath is a bell curve being very broad and dropping off sharply beyond the 26 degrees.
The temperature measurement for a complete orbit, half in sunlight and half in the dark, will vary dependent upon the amount of ocean it has traversed and if that transit was in day light or darkness. Let us also assume that the instrument has been calibrated against known ground stations that it overflew, therefore by summing the fourteen values and dividing by 14 we arrive at a measured temperature for an area of the globe (40008 X5790)KM².
So here we have the first significant problem as that SWATHE of instrument measurement has overflown both the poles 14 times. The total area traversed and measured is some 6.36 times the actual surface area of the globe. But we cannot just divide the reported temperature per orbit as we need to divide the temperature at the pole by 14 and the temperature at the equator by ONE!
If only it were that simple!
The satellite does not overfly the poles, the maximum latitude being some 8.7 degrees! This means that the swathe while covering the poles on each pass also covers right down to about 60 degrees North or South, a much too complicated number for my poor mathematics to figure out!
It gets worse if we add in METOP B & then C!
As it was METOP A all on it’s lonesome for quite some time. Does METOP B follow METOP A but 4 hours later, or seventeen degrees latitude away? Same question for METOP C but WRT METOP B?
There is not enough information available to do real Mathematics on these thorny problems, but it seems to me that there is a LARGE window for error in providing the observed Swathes footprint temperature and that’s with-out adding in complications like Oceans with strong winds (Screaming Sixties), Mountains (Himalia’s) and Deserts (Sahara)!
Did the Climate Models give better predictions when there was just METOP A, did they get significantly worse when METOP B was brought on-line?
Will the predictions get still further out now that METOP C is up there?
Do the Climate Modelers use Raw Data, or data adjusted by the ground station?
Have the Climate Modelers ascertained that the area swept is 510,072,000 km²?
Slithers

Hi, all. I love reading your comments (as well as the articles Jo writes and sources, of course). Question without notice from scientific ignoramus:

This is what I’ve read, and where I start: Carbon dioxide constitutes around 410 parts per million in the atmosphere. Around 3 per cent of that concentration is attributed to human activity.

If the amount of carbon dioxide attributed to human activity was doubled, you’d have (so to say) 103% of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere compared with the 100 per cent we have now. The calcs are a bit beyond my brain (or the effort I can muster), but I expect that would give rise to roughly 420 parts per million.

As I see it, that’s still not very much and my question (in an environment in which I hope there are no stupid questions) is:

Is the atmospheric system (as it were) so delicate that such an increase in carbon dioxide would have a noticeable effect on the Earth’s average temperature?

Actually all the CO2 rise from 285 ppm is claimed to be due to man, by those who wonder why they are referred to as loonies. They haven’t learnt any (real) science but are gullible and easily led.
The rise in temperature and the CO2 level involves Henry’s Law, so minor warming will drive lots of CO2 from the oceans (and lakes), and cooling will cause more to dissolve. Equally any that actually reacts in sea water (a small part as 99% of CO2 in sea water is as a dissolved gas) is low.
The effect can be seen when an ice age ends, as shown in the ice core measurements, when after warming starts about 600 to 800 years later the CO2 level shoots up rapidly (approx. from 180 ppm to 280ppm). Whether the ice cores represent the actual CO2 level in the air is doubtful, as previous interglacial have supposedly been much warmer than present yet the CO2 level has stayed around 280 ppm. which immediately shoots down the proposition that CO2 causes warming. Nor has the “world temperature” followed the rise in CO2 recently.
There are all sorts of claims about the coming heat based on spurious mechanisms. Supposedly a doubling of CO2 will raise world temperatures by 1.2℃ but that will be ‘magnified’ by higher water evaporation to about 3 – 3.5℃. Using the ideal gas laws I calculate that at 820ppm we will see about 0.07℃ higher temperatures, but some working differently think the temperature might go up by 0.4℃, which would be beneficial.
When you look at the deep past then we can see that the Cretaceous period was much warmer (about 5℃) than at present and the CO2 level was between 1600 and 1950ppm. but the previous Jurassic was about 2℃ warmer with CO2 at a minimum of 2200 and a maximum around 2700ppm (and the climate cooled as the CO2 rose). Further the temperature for about 6,000 of the last 10,000 years has been higher even though the carbon dioxide level has mostly been stable (if you believe the ice core analyses).
So NO. The climate isn’t at all delicate because of carbon dioxide.

Thanks, Andy and Graeme. You’re the best! Tell me now, among these ‘climate scientists’ (especially the modelling kind), is there any necessity to have taken a unit, or two, or a minor or major sequence, in palaeoclimatology?

In fact if you look at the credentials of many believers you will find only a minority have scientific qualifications. Someone a few months/years ago noted that of the 37 members of the UNSW Climate Department only 1 listed scientific qualifications (PhD in physics) and 30 were Climatologists i.e. BA with a major in Climate ‘Science’ from the Dept. of Geography. The remaining six, perhaps wisely, listed no qualifications. Is it any wonder the “ship of fools” got stuck in ice 110 km. from where Mawson moored his ship?
In fact it is difficult to find a science qualified warmist. Attenborough did geology but that was before 1950. Flannery did a BA but got a PhD in paleaontology rather fortuitously. Then there is Erhlich who has been preaching the end of the Earth for well over 50 years who is/was an entomologist.

Salome
The whole premise of Anthropological Global Warming or Climate Change is not even based on CO2 causing it all. I have not seen even the most wacko Alarmists twist the math to make a case that CO2 alone can cause really significant weather change. Their alarmism is based on an idea that a little extra CO2 will cause enough warming to result in natural forcings to be artificially enhanced there by causing the whole system to get out of wack and result in a series of feedbacks that lead to catastrophic weather conditions. This is why you’ve heard the phrase “tipping point” used in their lexicon so much. Never mind that no such thing has been demonstrated to have ever happened before due to CO2 and that every “tipping point” they’ve been stupid enough to quantify and that has come and gone so far has not resulted in what they have claimed.

“If you think of it like looking at the dashboard on your car, we’re trying to work out which dials we should be looking at. You don’t want to be looking at the radio if we want to work out if we’re going to run out of petrol.”

Climate scientists say the funniest things, as did NIWA principal scientist, ‘Dr’ Matt Pinkerton, as he sallied forth to the southern, frozen, ice-buried continent-cum-archipelago in search of (insert latest gobbledegook nonsense cause célèbre here). Reminds me of that Josh cartoon where all the white coats are surprised when they find a whole bunch of other knobs and dials around the side of the Climate Computer Machine.

The young, green churnalists who report / repeat this dribble are as guilty as the educated fools dribbling it. Apart from that minor quibble, another freakin’ awesome beautiful summer’s day here again – hoot!

From 1978 to 2014, southern sea ice was on an upward rise / slope / trend / growth (apart from the odd little up-and-down here-and-there) until BAM! along came the 2015-16 El Niño – finally! at last! some long-prophesied heat – and Antarctica’s sea ice extent took a dive, before bouncing back up. So 3 out of 40 years is supposed to convince us these nincompoops’ hypothesis is finally vindicated?

‘Will Fully-Blind’ would make a great cartoon character’s name, of some post-modern bearded woke millennial PhD student – of non-specific gender of course – hitching a ride on a diesel-powered steel-hulled ice-breaker to the South Pole to save polar bears… or the planet… or sump-think™.

Nov 2015: Phys.org: Researchers show that global warming happened just as fast in the past as today
Source: University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
Researchers at Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg have shown in the latest edition of the journal Nature Communications that the temperature changes millions of years ago probably happened no more slowly than they are happening today…

Together with a British colleagues, palaeobiologist Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Kießling and geosciences student Kilian Eichenseer, both from FAU, have published a pioneering study in Nature Communications explaining that the idea that environmental changes in the earth’s past happened slowly in comparison to current, rapid climate change is wrong. The reason for this incorrect assumption is the different time periods that are examined in climate research.
‘Today we can measure the smallest fluctuations in climate whenever they occur,’ Kilian Eichenseer explains. ‘Yet when we look at geological history we’re lucky if we can determine a change in climate over a period of ten thousand years.’…
LINKhttps://phys.org/news/2015-11-global-fast-today.html

7 Jan: AP: Hundreds of federal scientists miss conferences in shutdown
by Claire Galofaro; Associated Press writer Ben Finley contributed
The world’s largest airborne observatory was supposed to be parked in Seattle this week, so thousands of scientists attending the “Super Bowl of Astronomy” could behold this marvel: a Boeing 747 outfitted with a massive telescope used to study the fundamental mysteries of the universe.
But conference-goers will not be able to see NASA’s space-exploring plane. Its visit to the 233rd Meeting of the American Astronomical Society was canceled, one of a growing list of scientific casualties of the partial government shutdown now stretching into its third week.

Along with the plane, hundreds of government scientists are also no longer allowed to attend the conference or two other major scientific gatherings scheduled to begin this week. Those meetings will address pressing issues in the fields of technology, space exploration, extreme weather and climate change.

But the shutdown’s impact on science stretches well beyond the empty chairs at this week’s conferences, said Keith Seitter, executive director of the American Meteorological Society. It means some of the nation’s smartest scientific minds are sitting at home, not doing science, for weeks, with no clear end in sight.
***“That’s difficult to recover from,” said Seitter. “We’ll be seeing ripple effects from this for a long time.”…

Some 700 federal employees who planned to attend the American Meteorological Society conference in Phoenix are staying home…
Even Jim Bridenstine, NASA’s new administrator, and the leaders of the National Weather Service are no longer able to attend the weather conference, and the organizers scrambled to replace their presentations…
But on Thursday, employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which includes the National Weather Service, were told to cancel their conference plans. Scientists and engineers from NASA and the Smithsonian were also told they couldn’t attend…
One concrete casualty could be the government’s ability to recruit and retain the next generation of scientists, said Seitter, with the American Meteorological Society…

Take E.L. Meszaros, a doctoral student at Brown University, who had been scheduled to present her research on human-drone communication techniques at the San Diego technology conference.
But her work was funded by NASA, as was her trip to the conference…
She always imagined she’d work as a public servant. But now she has scientist friends who work for the government who haven’t been paid in weeks and are interviewing at other places.
“If you can’t guarantee that you’re going to be able to pay your employees,” she said, “then it does make you second guess whether that’s where you want to work.”…

7 Jan: UK Times: Green energy policies at risk as Liz Truss targets ‘white elephants’
by Francis Elliott
Liz Truss is targeting green energy policies as she launches a Treasury review of government projects with a call to “junk the white elephants”.
Each Whitehall department will be made to justify afresh every line of expenditure of capital projects as part of the next round of spending, the chief secretary to the Treasury has said.
Ms Truss said she wanted to weed out programmes that were failing, had become outdated or had diverged from their original mission. She said day-to-day spending would be reviewed using new criteria to ensure that it delivered the most to improve life chances.
The prospect of a “zero-based capital review” will send tremors of fear across Whitehall and put the combative minister on a collision course with many of her colleagues.

In an article for The Sunday Telegraph Ms Truss hinted that the Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy might be first in line. She asked whether ministers could “increase competition and reduce prices in energy by simplifying our approach to lowering carbon emissions”, which will be taken as a statement of intent to review the substantial government support for green energy schemes. “In reviewing this evidence, we must be prepared to junk the white elephants, the programmes that haven’t worked, and roll back mission creep, where government involves itself in areas the private sector can deliver. Growth and bang-for-buck must take precedence,” she said…https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/54460478-11fb-11e9-8239-c0a124428b01

7 Jan: UK Times: Rivals’ unpaid debts pushing small energy firms to brink
by Emily Gosden
More small energy suppliers will be pushed to collapse by rules forcing them to pick up the tab for those that have gone bust already, an industry boss has warned…

Doug Stewart, chief executive of Green Energy, said that its share of the bill for competitors’ unpaid debts under one scheme alone would wipe out 7 per cent of its annual profits. He said that his company, a small but established supplier, could weather the costs, but warned that others would not.

7 Jan: UK Times: Owners given £115 million to turn off turbines
by Mike Wade
Wind farm companies have enjoyed a bonanza because of a “perverse incentive” to build in remote parts of Scotland where they are likely to be paid to turn off their turbines, it has been claimed.
Developers north of the border received £115 million to discard their potential output as constraint payments across the UK reached a record £125 million last year.

Critics have now highlighted examples that they claim illustrate faults in the payments system.
The 66-turbine Stronelairg wind farm, on the edge of Cairngorm National Park, was “constrained” on December 28, less than a fortnight after its official opening, according to data collected by the Renewable Energy Foundation (REF), a charity that has been critical of wind farms.

Stronelairg’s owner, SSE, like other wind farm companies, receives payments to turn off turbines when electricity supply outstrips local demand and bottlenecks in the grid prevent exports.
John Constable, director of the REF, said that the system appeared to motivate companies to build in remote areas where bottlenecks could be expected…https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0f7fa9b0-1201-11e9-94cd-1357d20693b3

6 Jan: Financial Times: Green Investment Bank under fire for loss of UK focus
by Josephine Cumbo
Vince Cable says sale of GIB was ‘totally unnecessary and damaging’
Sir Vince Cable says the bank is now just a small cog within Macquarie, which was not its original intention…

Cash raised on the markets by GIB was to be used to support investment in the UK’s green infrastructure, such as waste management and offshore wind power.
But in August 2017 the Conservative government sold the bank for £2.3bn to Macquarie, the Australian financial group, in a move that was later criticised by parliament’s spending watchdog as “deeply regrettable”…

Since leaving state hands, the bank was rebranded as the Green Investment Group and now describes itself as a “leading global green investor”, operating in Asia, the Middle East and North America as well as the UK and Europe.
On Sunday, Sir Vince, said that the sale of the GIB was “totally unnecessary and damaging” because the bank had built up a considerable reputation for finding good projects in the UK that could be funded through the market…

“Our business is led from the UK and we continue to be highly active here,” the bank said. “Both our first and most recent investments have been in the UK and we’re confident 2019 will continue to deliver exciting opportunities in our home market alongside rapid development of GIG’s impact as a clean energy investor in international markets.”…
According to its most recent accounts, the Green Investment Bank, the trading name of GIG in Europe and the UK, made a profit of £225m for the year to end of March 2018 compared with £1.5m a year earlier.https://www.ft.com/content/9b1aa5e4-11a5-11e9-a581-4ff78404524e

6 Jan: Guardian: Senate crossbench gave renewables $23bn boost by thwarting Abbott’s plan
Exclusive: Decisions by Labor and crossbench to save clean energy agencies encouraged investment, report says
by Paul Karp
The Australia Institute says decisions taken by Labor and the crossbench between 2013 and 2015 to save the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and Australian Renewable Energy Agency (Arena) have now secured $7.8bn in public funding and investment for clean energy.
Together with the renewable energy target – which was retained but reduced to 33,000GWh by 2020 – these measures will cut greenhouse gases by 334m tonnes over their lifetime, compared with 192m tonnes through the Coalition’s emissions reduction fund.

The Australia Institute released the Saved by the Bench report alongside polling that showed Australians supported the Senate’s role as a check on government power but were split on whether it blocked government legislation too often…

In the first graph, the 2 smaller date ranges are 1980 to 1998, and 1998 to 2018. Both of the smaller date ranges, have warming rates which are considerably lower than the warming rate of the big date range.

In the second graph, the 2 smaller date ranges are 1980 to 1999, and 1999 to 2018. Both of the smaller date ranges, have warming rates which are higher than the warming rate of the big date range.

How can this be? There is only 1 year difference, in where the big date range was split. But the warming rates of the 2 smaller date ranges, do opposite things in the 2 graphs.

====================

Try to work out the reason, for these apparently contradictory results.

that’s just due to end point factors which is a well known phenomenon with curve fitting on a distribution with unknown data points outside the range of the end points. It can be corrected for with various assumptions or priors and, alternatively and preferable, the regression should be a regression range within a certain acceptable probability tolerance. You’ll find that the range of slopes of each of those shallow curves easily encompasses the slope estimated from the larger data set.