The EIU view

The government is meeting its fiscal consolidation targets, and the external deficit is narrowing sharply, but inflation remains persistently high and the economy remains weak for now. There will be an export-led recovery this year, but inflation will be slow to come down, and with the presidential poll due in October, this is heightening political risk. However, we still believe the president, Mauricio Macri, will be re-elected, setting the stage for a more solid recovery from 2020.