Prospectiva’s Election Dashboard is a key source of analysis for political developments in Latin American elections. In it, we bring together relevant information about voting systems, candidates and polling in real-time, providing our own analysis to aid in the understanding of elections in the region. The dashboard collects all pertinent information into one platform, delivering thorough insights found nowhere else.

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Argentina Election Dashboard

Background Information

Key Dates

General Election

Run off

President is directly elected by a popular majority vote, for a 4-year term. A run off may take place if no candidate receives more than 45% of the votes and a 10% difference between the second candidate. In the run off, the candidate who receives a simple majority wins the election. Second consecutive terms are possible, and after that must sit out at least one term before being eligible to run again.

Members of the Senate are directly elected in multi-seat constituencies by simple majority vote to serve 6-year terms. The Chamber of Deputies is directly elected by proportional representation where members serve 4-year terms. Senators and deputies may seek reelection indefinitely.

- Parties are both regularly provided public funding as well as in relation to campaigns.
- 50% of public funding is distributed equally among participating parties. The remaining half is distributed between constituencies and proportionally to party representation.
- Ban on donations from foreign interests outside of the country to political parties.
- Corporate donations to political parties are allowed regularly. In relation to campaign support, they are banned.
- Ban on donations from trade unions or political, social and professional associations.
- Specific ban on donations to persons in the gambling business.
- Funding for individual candidates is not allowed, donations must be directly made to political parties.

Bolivia Election Dashboard

Background Information

Key Dates

General election

Elections take place every five years with the possibility of reelection only once after being elected. To be elected president, a candidate must receive at least 50% of the votes, or receive a minimum of 40% of the votes with a 10% difference between the second place candidate. A run off may take place between the two candidates with the most amount of votes, with the winner being the candidate with the highest amount of votes.

Senators are elected through a proportional system. Deputies are elected by a mixed member proportional representation system, 70 deputies are elected to represent single member electoral districts, 7 of which are indigenous seats elected by minority groups, and the remaining 60 are elected by proportional representation from party lists on a departmental basis.

Universal suffrage starting at 18 years of age with compulsory voting. The president is elected through majority vote, with na opportunity for a run off should the candidate not receive 50% of the vote, or 40% with a 10% difference with the second place candidate.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties.
- No ban on donations from foreign interests to candidates.
- No ban on corporate donations to political parties or candidates.
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties or candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties or candidates.
- Limits on the amount a donor can contribute to a party exists, where an individual contribution must not exceed 10% of the annual budget of the party.

Election credibility remains an issue in Bolivia, especially after President Evo Morales, in an attempt to reform the constitution to allow him to run once again this year, held a referendum. Ultimately, Bolivians rejected the referendum, making Morales ineligible to run for 2019.

Brazil Election Dashboard

Background Information

The outcome of the upcoming elections in Brazil is still uncertain, but the challenges the next president will face are quite clear - perhaps more so than in previous years.

The country's current president, Michel Temer, took office in May of 2016 after the Senate dismissed then-President Dilma Rousseff. Mr. Temer belongs to the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), the party with the largest number of mayors, congressmen and senators, and therefore exerts notable political and electoral influence.

At the beginning of his tenure, Temer approved fiscal measures aimed at improving the business environment. Although his name has been mentioned in Operation Lava Jato since May of 2017, he was able to avoid indictments filed by the Office of the Prosecutor General and was acquitted of two charges by the Superior Electoral Court. However, some of these victories forced the president to make political concession to lawmakers – since Congress controlled the fate of these charges. As such, Temer intensified the issuing of executive orders and gave up on important proposals that were unpopular with congressmen and senators. The failure to act on these proposals impaired the public accounts and the spending cap.

Besides the fiscal cost, the political crisis also imposed a very high personal cost on the president. The federal government and Temer’s disapproval ratings reached levels never before seen – even during Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment proceedings.

Given this scenario, it is unlikely that the president will be a candidate for re-election. Likewise, ruling political parties are already seeking ways to dissociate themselves from the most unpopular president in the country's history while maintaining support from his party, the PMDB, in 2018. An electoral coalition that integrates the party will be crucial next year since its legislative weight would give it the largest amount of radio and television air time during the campaign.

It should be emphasized that the structure of political parties in 2018 will continue to be dependent on numerous factors. Important variables include i) the presence of candidates on social media; ii) the support of grassroots movements, such as unions and associations; and (iii) access to financial resources. The latter is especially important after the adoption of the political reform, which established rules for party access to public resources, established a spending limit, and created a public fund for the campaigns.

It should also be pointed out that due to the erosion of center-left parties, especially the Workers Party (PT), candidates identifying as center-right will be the favorites for 2018. For the time being, this segment includes the governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin (of the Brazilian Social-Democracy Party - PSDB); the mayor of São Paulo, João Dória - also of the PSDB; the Minister of Finance, Henrique Meirelles (of the Social-Democrat Party - PSD); and TV personality and entrepreneur Luciano Huck (in negotiations with the People's Socialist Party (PPS) and the Democrats (DEM).

The possible fragmentation of the center-right, however, may end up favoring candidates positioned at the extreme ends of the left and the right. Another trend set for 2018 is the rise of candidates with extreme rhetoric, such as far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro, of the Patriots Party.

On the opposition, the main player is former President Lula da Silva (PT-2003-2011). The former president leads in all public opinion polls that test scenarios for the race, followed by Congressman Bolsonaro. However, the possible conviction of Lula for receiving bribes may put an end to his candidacy. In that case, the PT will have to find an alternative candidate, possibly the former mayor of São Paulo, Fernando Haddad.

Parties historically allied with the PT also plan to launch their own candidates. The most notable case is the Labor Democratic Party (PDT), whose candidate will likely be the former governor of Ceará and former Finance Minister, Ciro Gomes. Despite the bond between the PT and the PDT, the PDT will join the race with or without Lula’s presence. Even if the former president is barred from competing and ends up supporting Gomes, it is unlikely that he will be able to acquire most of his votes. In short, the center-left will only be competitive should Lula run.

The immediate effect of Lula’s absence in the general election would be the depolarization of the race. In other words, Bolsonaro and similar candidates will only be competitive if the former president ends up on the ballot. Otherwise, centrist candidates whose campaigns focus on objective problems, such as Geraldo Alckmin, may end up being the frontrunners.

Regardless of who the candidates are in 2018, it is safe to assume that the issues that will dominate the elections will be corruption – e.g. Lava Jato – and the effects of the fiscal crisis on the distribution of public services, especially public safety.

Lastly, it is important to emphasize that there will be a large segment of dissatisfied voters who will cast blank, void, or undecided ballots. Only on the eve of the elections will it be clear where these votes will land on the political spectrum. It is this set of voters that has decided past presidential elections and 2018 will be no different.

Social welfare programs

Macroeconomic policy

Brazil is a federative constitutional republic with a presidential system form of government. The Federal Constitution of 1988 vertically organizes the state into political-administrative divisions comprised of the Union, the states, the Federal District and municipalities, all autonomous. In a horizontal dimension, power is divided into three independent spheres: executive, legislative, and judiciary. Mutual control is done by checks and balances. Although not constitutionally considered a power, the Office of the Prosecutor General is seen, in practice, as a fourth branch. It’s an independent institution whose duty is to defend the juridical order, democracy, and social and individual rights.
The Executive Branch is composed by direct and indirect Public Administration and holds administrative functions. The president, who is head of government and state, holds the prerogative of choosing their government team (ministers), and cannot be dismissed, except in case of impeachment.

The Legislative Branch’s function is that of representing the population, legislating, and supervising the executive branch, and in certain cases, try members of the executive and legislative branches. At the federal level, the system is bicameral, composed of the House of Representatives and the Senate. While the former represents the Brazilian population, the latter represents the 27 federal entities.

The Judicial Branch, in turn, has the function of guaranteeing individual, collective, and social rights, as well as the resolution of conflicts between citizens, institutions, and the state. Its highest body is the Federal Supreme Court; a court of appeals whose function is to watch over the Constitution. The court’s 11 ministers are chosen by the president, with approval of the Senate.

The relationship between the executive and legislative branches is complex and represents the so-called "Presidentialism by Coalition". The existence of 25 political parties that do not necessarily possess clear identities or ideologies makes it difficult to build a majority in Congress. However, the Executive Branch has extensive constitutional rights in relation to the Legislative Branch, such as the use of vetoes (even if such vetoes can be overturned by congressmen) and temporary executive orders (decrees with legal power). Presidents have to resort to political negotiations in order to ensure the support of the various parties. Such movements, however, are not necessarily about ideas. Therefore, government allies not only participate but also influence the direction of the government.

Held every four years with the possibility for immediate reelection since 1997.
The President is elected by an absolute majority vote (excluding blank and null votes). If no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes, the two candidates with the highest number of votes move on to a run-off election. The candidate with the highest number of votes on the run-off wins the election. If no candidate conquers an absolute majority, the oldest one will be considered elected.

The Senate has three members representing each state, totaling 81 senators. These members are directly elected in multi-seat constituencies by simple majority vote to serve an 8-year term. Every four years the Senate is renewed on a proportion of 1/3 of its members and, in subsequent elections, 2/3 is renewed.

The House of Representatives holds elections directly by proportional representation with open list to serve 4-year terms. The number of representatives is related to the population of each state, varying from a minimum of 8 and a maximum of 70 representatives, totaling 513 individuals.

Proportional representation with open list means that the votes conquered by each candidate will be summed up to his/her respective party or coalition. Therefore, the votes received by each party of the coalition are summed into the calculation for distribution of seats in Congress. This system forces small parties to form alliances with larger ones to form coalitions. As a result, candidates who receive a large share of votes help elect politicians who received few votes.

This system will change starting in 2020. The electoral reform, approved by Congress in October of 2017, prohibits party coalitions in proportional elections (state and federal representatives and councilors).

Universal voting that is voluntary for illiterate citizens and for people aged between 16 to 18 years and over 70. It is compulsory between 18 to 70 years of age. Those in military service and armed forces are not allowed to vote.

Until 2014, Brazil employed a hybrid model of financing campaigns: most of the party's resources came from corporate donations; and the other rest came from individual donations and resources from the Party Fund - a public fund that is divided among all parties proportionally. However, campaigns were excessively expensive and fell victim to private interests.

In 2015, after the emergence of Operation Lava Jato, the Supreme Court banned private donations. Afterwards, campaigns could only be financed through individual donations and resources from the Party Fund. However, Party Fund resources were insufficient to finance expensive campaigns.

To find a solution, Congress approved an electoral reform in October of 2017, which created a new public campaign fund of approximately BRL 1.7 billion for the 2018 elections. This funding will be distributed as follows:
• 48% will be divided between parties, in proportion to the number of congressmen;
• 35% divided between parties with at least 1 representative, in proportion to the votes obtained in the last House elections;
• 15% divided between parties, in proportion to the number of senators;
• 2% divided equally among all parties

The electoral reform also established a discretionary spending cap for campaigns:
• President: BRL 70 million on the first round and BRL 35 million on the second round.
• Senate: from BRL 2.5 million to BRL 5.6 million, according to the number of voters in the state.
• House: BRL 2.5 million.

Additionally, the reform stipulated that individual donors could only donate the equivalent of 10% of their income from the previous year, and self-donations from candidates are allowed, as long as the limits for the position are respected. Crowdfunding is also allowed starting in May of 2018.

It is worth mentioning that the reform also created a progressive barrier clause that restricts party access to public resources (Party Fund) and TV and radio air time based on their electoral performance. As a result, small parties with little representation in Congress will likely be eliminated, helping to reduce cronyism and corruption in Congress in the long term.

Beyond the rules established by the reform, other rules are still valid, such as:
• Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates
• Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates
• Contribution mechanisms require the identification of all contributors, leading to a de facto ban on anonymous donations.

• Candidates must be literate, native-born, and currently resident in Brazil.
• Candidates must be at least 35 years old for presidential elections.
• Candidates must be registered voters at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE);
• Candidates must be members of a political party for at least 6 months. Independent candidates cannot run for office;
• Candidates holding public offices on the Executive, Judiciary, Court of Auditors (Union, States and Municipalities), and the Office of the Prosecutor General can only run in elections if detached 6 months earlier;
• Candidates cannot run in elections for the period of 8 years if previously convicted by a collegiate body of the Judiciary;
• Candidates can only be replaced if the exchange request is disclosed at least 20 days prior the election, except in case of death.

Elections in Brazil are considered fair and free. For the first time in history, the Organization of American States (OAS) was invited to monitor the electoral process in 2018.

Chile Election Dashboard

Background Information

The Chilean presidential election arrives with a backdrop of significant political change in Chile. After two nonconsecutive terms in office, Michelle Bachelet's tenure can be characterized by a series of significant reforms, an expansion of social programs, the development of decentralization policies, and integrating the country in the Pacific Alliance. Bachelet has also promised to develop a new constitution by the end of her term, replacing the Constitution of 1980. However, Bachelet also struggled to maintain growth levels, facing an economic slowdown during her second term (2014-2018). She has also struggled with the continuous decline of approval ratings, which can be attributed to a stalling reform program, a series of high profile scandals, and a slowdown in economic growth. While during her first term Bachelet maintained high approval ratings, her second term proved more difficult, averaging a 19.5% approval rate in 2016.

Within this political context, Chileans have distanced themselves from the Bachelet administration, increasingly identifying themselves with an opposition. For the presidential elections, three candidates have won the primaries: former President Sebastian Piñera (PRN), Beatriz Sanchez (Independent), and Alejandro Guillier (Independent). Piñera, who served as President from 2010-2014, is running under the center-right Chile Vamos alliance. Sanchez, a journalist who has never held public office, is running under the Broad Front alliance and has gathered support from leftist parties. The last candidate, Alejandro Guillier, an independent Senator with a background in journalism who is well known for his appearances on radio and television, has consolidated an alliance within the New Majority, a center-left party alliance.

Update 1: September 13, 2017

While it is still early on, polls indicate that the chances for a run-off vote in December are likely. No candidate has the necessary 50% to claim the presidency in the November elections. Although Piñera has a large lead, the center-left and left parties supporting Sanchéz and Guillier are likely to join forces against the former president in a possible run-off, making its result unpredictable. In such scenario, the candidacy of Carolina Goic - and the recipient of her support in the second round - has become increasingly relevant.

The latest Adimark poll confirms Goic's growth, reaching 5% of voter's intent to vote for her. Goic is president of the traditional centrist Christian Democratic Party (PDC), which had been part of the ruling New Majority coalition (previously named Concertation) since its founding in 1988. However, after divergences and in the imminence of losing the coalitions's primaries, the PDC decided to leave the New Majority and launch Goic on its own. Despite her recent growth in the polls, she is unlikely to manage her way into the run-off; still, amidst the strain of withdrawing from the New Majority, Goic has not committed to supporting Guillier.

Update 2: November 8, 2017
With the election eleven days away, Piñera continues to lead in the polls (32.8%) with Guiller (13.8) coming in second. Other polls tie Guiller and Sanchez, giving Guiller 21.3% and Sanchez 19.3%. This indicates that a run-off is the most likely scenario for the elections, as candidates require 50% of the vote in order to secure the presidency in the first round of voting. In the likely scenario that Piñera and Guiller remain as the candidates for the run-off, the center-left may attempt to unify in that short period of time. However, the question remains if either of the center-left candidates, Sanchez and Guiller, are willing to throw support to the other. The ideological differences between Sanchez and Guiller could prove to be too steep, limiting the center-left’s ability to unite against Piñera, allowing him to secure the presidency.

Key Dates

19 nov 2017

General election of Deputies, Senators, Regional Councilors, and President

17 dec 2017

Presidential run-off

Candidates

Center-Left
Guiller is an experienced politician who has served as a Senator for the Antofagasta region since 2014. Guiller is a journalist with a background in sociology, academia, and journalism. He has broad experience with media, working as a reporter and news anchor for multiple channels in Chile.

Campaign promise

Under the Concertacion and New Majority alliance, Guillier's main campaign promise focuses around decentralization, the development of a new constitution. He has also focused on infrastructure, specifically transportation in the metropolitan areas. Guillier has also proposed a Strategy of Digital Transformation, a strategy focusing on connectivity, a digital economy, and the development of the country's digital capabilities.

Business friendliness

In regards to the private sector, Guillier promotes the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs, or Pymes in Spanish). Within this context, he has also stated an interest in reforming the labor code, in a three party dialogue between the government, the private sector, and labor representatives.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Guillier is a supporter of liberal foreign policy, and has expressed interest in continuing work within the Pacific Alliance and Mercosur.

Social welfare programs

Guillier is likely to maintain social programs, while also increasing the scope of active programs such moving towards a universal health system, creating a system of public pharmacies, and reforming the country's pension system.

Macroeconomic policy

Guillier has expressed his intent to exempt middle class Chileans of the VAT on homes. While it is likely that he focus on fiscal reforms, it is unlikely that he impose heterodox economic policies in office should he be elected.

Left
Sanchez is a newcomer to Chilean politics. She has a background in journalism and participates on television programs, Hora 20 and Combinacion Clave. While she lacks political experience and has never held public office, she is well known for her outspoken nature.

Campaign promise

Sanchez strong suit lies in social issues, including women's health, gender and economic inequality. She has yet to establish a series of economic, infrastructure, or foreign affairs proposals.

Business friendliness

Sanchez has expressed her intent to expand the capacity of collective bargaining and to incorporate collective bargaining agreements or by sector of production. Sánchez has also called for the strengthening of the Chilean Unitary Workers' Union (CUT).

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Information will be provided as Sanchez's campaign develops.

Social welfare programs

Sanchez is likely for the expansion and development of social welfare programs in Chile, as her focus on social issues is greater than macroeconomic or foreign affairs policies. Her economic advisor, Claudia Sanhueza, has expressed intent to reform the existing pension system, following the Uruguayan and Austrian models.

Macroeconomic policy

Sanchez's economic policy advisor is Claudia Sanhueza, has indicated that Sanchez's policies will include raising taxes and rules out austerity measures on public spending.

Center
Carolina Goic is a known figure in Chilean politics. She was a National Deputy from 2006 to 2014 and thereafter elected Senator, and she has been president of the traditional centrist Christian Democratic Party since 2016. As a Deputy, she chaired the Health Committe and was of foremost importance to the draft of the Ricarte Soto Law, which ensures financial protection to people with rare diseases.

Campaign promise

Her campaign's agenda has focused primarily on social security and health issues, especially for the elderly and disabled, but also regarding a general expansion of the public health system. Although she opposes a new constitution, she has proposed a comprehensive state reform, furthering decentralization towards regional governments and promoting accountability and a performance-oriented management within the public sector.

Business friendliness

Goic has been deemed Chile's business community's favourite candidate. Although Piñera's policies are more business-friendly, his presidency was marked by uncertainty, social unrest and little governability; likewise, Guillier is considered unreliable. Goic's moderate position and reforms are well regarded by the business class, and her centrist position could bring about much desired political stability to the country.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Goic has expressed comittement to further regional integration and trade liberalization within her foreign policy agenda, indicating her support for the strengthening of the Pacific Alliance. She has also been a fierce critic of the Maduro government in Venezuela, demanding a more severe position from the Bachelet government.

Social welfare programs

Goic is likely to increase the coverage and scope of the public health system, granting treatment gratuity for a larger array of diseases. She has also supported extending superior education gratuity for the most vulnerable. Yet, she has indicated her inclination for further paticipation of the private sector in the provision of public services and the management of public infrastructure, such as hospitals.

Macroeconomic policy

Goic has committed to maintaning orthodox economic agenda, keeping strict control over public finances in order to attract foreign invesments.

Center-Right
Piñera served as Chile's first conservative president since the end of military rule in 1990. During his tenure, Piñera struggled with approval ratings, due to a series of political gaffes and ill managed emergencies, despite positive growth rates and lowered unemployment rates. However, the even lower approval of Bachelet and the center-left alliances has benefited Piñera's run.

Campaign promise

Piñera's campaign is well structured and focuses on a series of topics including education, health, pension, increase in infrastructure, and security. However, his main promise lies in economic growth and decreasing the unemployment rate, which currently stands at 7%. His flagship program, Chile Invierte 2026 (Chile Invests 2026), a serious infrastructure program, with a focus on public-private partnerships.

Business friendliness

Piñera has a high level of business friendliness. His flagship program, Chile Invierte 2026 (Chile Invests 2026) focuses on public-private partnerships.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Piñera follows a liberal ideology within foreign affairs. He is likely to continue Chile's status quo in regards to foreign affairs.

Social welfare programs

Piñera's previous experience in La Mondeda indicates that while he will likely maintain current social welfare programs, he may attempt to decentralize or promote the privatization of certain government programs. Piñera attempted to privatize certain aspects of the education system of Chile during his administration, which led to a series of protests.

Macroeconomic policy

Piñera is likely to maintain orthodox economic policies, which are in line with his center-right views.

Macroeconomic policy

Polls

Held every four years without possibility for immediate reelection. The President is elected by an absolute majority vote with a possibility for a run off should no candidate receive more than 50% of the total votes. The candidate with the highest number of votes on the run off election wins the election.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates. This does not apply to foreign natural persons who are registered to vote in Chile.
- Ban on corporate donations to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates.
- No ban on anonymous donations on political parties and candidates, but there is na established limit on individual contributions which cannot exceed 20 units.
- Limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party during na off year cannot is established at 300 units per yer.
- Limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party during na election is established at 500 units during a presidential election.
- Additionally partially publicly funded.

Elections in Chile are free and fair and are considered credible by international watchdog organizations.

Colombia Election Dashboard

Background Information

After eight years of Juan Manuel Santos in office, Colombians appear eager for change. Despite the international recognition and awards received for the negotiations and efforts which led to the end of the 50-year conflict against the guerillas and paramilitary groups, Santos has not been able to translate his international prestige into popularity within his own country. The persistence of political corruption, poor economic performance and growing unemployment, and recurrent crises in the healthcare system have become Colombian’s main concerns, jeopardizing Santos’ image. Although his 70% disapproval rating is not particularly low in comparison to Latin American standards, it certainly suggests Colombians are dissatisfied with the current establishment and might look elsewhere for solutions. With many options of candidates offering alternatives to traditional parties and politicians, including the recently founded FARC party, the elections could lead to a new outlook for politics and business in Colombia.
Some of the main candidates do not come from the traditional parties. Leading early polls, Sergio Fajardo, an independent candidate affiliated to the Citizen Commitment Movement, is the former mayor of Medellin whose mild left-wing views are appealing to a large number of voters disappointed with current politics. However, the break in the alliance with the Green Party and Alternative Democratic Pole, center-left parties that may provide a better structure for a national campaign, is likely to pose as a challenge. In fact, the Green Party candidate, Claudia López, has fared well in the polls and could seize some of Fajardo’s voters. In turn, Gustavo Petro, from the Progressivist’s Movement, is a former guerilla fighter and Bogotá mayor who promotes a clearly anti-business agenda with proposals such as the raise of taxes for foreign investors as a solution for the country’s fiscal issues.
Yet, the strength of traditional politicians cannot be overruled. In a country where voting is not compulsory and the historical abstention rates surpass 60%, frustrated Colombians most likely to support outsider candidates could simply choose not to vote, leaving the way clear for established and recognized politicians. In such context, former Santos’ vice-president Germán Vargas Lleras is the most competitive candidate. Leader of the Radical Change party, Vargas LLeras endorses a pro-business, liberal program, but is criticized for his lack of fiscal discipline. A liberal agenda could also be expected from Humberto de la Calle, another former vice-president and the Liberal Party candidate. Although he served as Chief Negotiator of the Peace Agreements with the FARC, de la Calle has attempted to distance himself from this role and President Santos. Finally, the yet-to-be chosen candidate of the coalition established between Álvaro Uribe’s Democratic Center and Andrés Pastrana’s Conservative Party is also likely to be a strong challenger. The two former presidents are fierce critics of the Santos administration and, particularly, of the Peace Agreements, and their campaign is likely to appeal to a still unaddressed portion of conservative voters.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- No ban on corporate donations to political parties or candidates, except in presidential campaigns
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties.
- Ban on donation from trade unions to candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- The amount a donor contributes to a political party in an election cannot surpass the total amount of expenses approved for all candidates, and no contribution made by an individual can exceed 10% of the expenses limit.
- Also partially publicly funded.

Colombia accepts international watchdog organizations to review the country's electoral process. However, there have been claims of vote buying and electoral fraud in past elections.

Costa Rica Election Dashboard

Background Information

The Costa Rican presidential election comes with a backdrop of significant structural and political change for the country. After winning the 2013 election, with much surprise from the political establishment, President Guillermo Solís has suffered from low approval ratings and even lower governability in the Legislative. While he has completed significant reforms, he has yet to implement a much-needed fiscal reform that includes increasing taxes and decreasing government spending. The country is also in the process of becoming a full member of the Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCED), which must complete a full country policy review in order to advance with the accession process. The organization has outlined the dire fiscal situation the country finds itself in, but little action has been taken due to the low governability Solís suffers from. This will leave his successor to deal with an issue that is highly unpopular.

The candidates for the election are Carlos Alvarado (PAC), Alvaro Alvarez Desanti (PLN), Rodolfo Hernandez (PRSC), Rodolfo Piza (PUSC), Juan Diego Castro (PIN), and Otto Guevara Guth (ML). In this context, it is important to keep in mind that a majority of Costa Ricans do not identify with one specific party. In fact, in a survey completed in March 2017, 76% of Costa Ricans do not align themselves to any specific party. With this in mind, candidates will likely focus on campaign outreach to undecided voters and those without a political affiliation.

Update 1: September 1, 2017
Current polls show Alvarez in the lead, but fails to secure the 40% needed to win the election without going to a runoff in April. Piza, who stands as the second possible runoff candidate has come under fire for a mobile election application developed by his campaign that may be violating voting laws. Juan Diego Castro (PIN) has ramped up his social media campaign, attacking Alvarez through Twitter and Facebook. PAC candidate Carlos Alvarado has struggled to gain support, as a series of scandals of the Solís administration continue to divide the party internally and hurt people's perception of the PAC in general.

Update 2: December 15, 2017
After nearly reaching 40% of voting intent in the polls, the necessary percentage to win the election without a run-off, support for Alvarez (PLN) has persistently dropped in the last three months. With the election still two months away, Alvarez now sees his lead threatened by Castro (PIN), who the polls show to be relentlessly grasping his opponent’s lost followers. Castro’s outspoken personality and anti-establishment rhetoric have benefitted from the Chinese cement corruption scandal, which has done great damage to Solís’ candidate, Carlos Alvarado (PAC), and to Otto Guevara (ML), both of whom saw their numbers on the wane.

In any case, any forecasts for the election are still very uncertain not only due to the fragmented distribution in the polls, but mostly due to the persistence of a large number of undecided voters, the approaching of the elections notwithstanding. In fact, the latest OPol shows a growing portion of voters, 31% in November, have yet to choose a candidate. Even voters who have claimed to support one candidate have shown to be very indecisive, easily moving from one candidate to the other. However, it this situation is most unfavorable to Alvarez. Among undecided voters, he has the highest rejection; 38% have claimed they would not vote for him under any circumstance according CIEP-UCR, well above Castro’s 8%. Such scenario should benefit Castro not only for the February election, but, more importantly, for the probable run-off to take place in April.

Key Dates

04 feb 2018

Presidential and legislative election

01 apr 2018

Runoff election

Candidates

Center- Antonio Alvarez is part of the PLN's political establishment. He has been involved in national politics since the 1980s and is considered a political heavyweight with significant political savvy. Alvarez has run for office in 2001, 2004, and again in 2014, but failed to win the party's primary elections. In terms of ideology, Alvarez falls within the PLN's centrist candidates of the party is a pragmatist. Alvarez has served as the Ministry of Government, Minister of Agriculture, and former president of the National Council of Production. Most recently he served as president of the National Assembly and successfully coordinated the opposition against several Solís administration measures.

Campaign promise

Alvarez's main campaign promise lies in "untangling" Costa Rica. By this he means reducing the amount of bureaucratic processes that currently exist.

Business friendliness

Alvarez's experience in the public and private sector provides insight to his private sector policies. His continuous visits to business associations and private sector chambers indicate that Alvarez is likely to have a high level of openness to the private sector and policies that benefit the private sector.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

In regards to foreign affairs, Alvarez is likely to maintain Costa Rica's current free trade agenda, but may shift the diplomatic policies in cases where the Solís administration has faltered. Alvarez has been a strong attacker of the Maduro regime, a case in which the Solís administration offered support until recently. Additionally, within the foreign affairs policies, he brings in his main theme of debureacratization, such as the implementation of a single window policy.

Social welfare programs

In terms of social welfare, he plans to modernize the Costa Rican Social Service Fund (CCSS) by implementing technological solutions to existing issues. Due the Costa Rican political culture, it is unlikely that Alvarez reduce the level of social welfare in the country.

Macroeconomic policy

In regards to fiscal reform, he proposes an integral fiscal reform. He proposes this through three pillars: 1. Modernization of the fiscal structure; 2. Effective control over government expenditure triggers; and 3.Increase in transparency and accountability in the public sector accounts. However, he has yet to provide detailed information on a fiscal reform strategy.

Center left- Alvarado previously served as President Guillermo Solís' Minister of Labor and Minister of Human Development. During his tenure, Costa Rica suffered from high levels of unemployment, reaching 10% in 2015. Before working in the Solís administration, he served as the communications director of the 2014 Solís presidential campaign.

Campaign promise

Alvarado has outlined his campaign promises on his official campaign website. He focuses on the modernization of education, and the development of the internal agricultural market. In regards to urban development, he promises to build an elevated electric train system that connects San Jose, Cartago, Alajuela, and Heredia. He also aims to prohibit oil exploration in the country, following the sustainable and environmental agenda established by the Solís administration. Alvarado also highlights the need for integral fiscal reform, by establishing a progressive tax system and the creation of a value added tax (VAT).

Business friendliness

Alvarado's private sector experience indicates that he is likely to be more open to the private sector that President Solís. Alvarado worked in Procter & Gamble as an regional assistant brand manager for many years.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

In terms of experience, Alvarado has little in terms of foreign affairs. However, it is likely that he maintain the foreign policy established by the Solís administration.

Social welfare programs

In regards to social welfare, Alvarado aims to expand a series of social programs, such as the Bridge to Development and the Welfare Network developed by the Solís administration.

Macroeconomic policy

Alvarado's macroeconomic policy is likely to follow that of the Solís administration. He publicly supports the package of reforms Solís introduced to the National Assembly in mid-August.

Center Right- Castro has a background in law and is considered a controversial candidate. He began the campaign using what some may consider populist rhetoric, directly attacking candidate Antonio Alvarez Desanti, the Solís administration, and the country's "traditional parties". He served as Minister of Public Security in 1994-1996, and later as Minister of Justice from 1996-1997.

Campaign promise

Castro's main focus on the campaign trail thus far has been on security issues, but has not published his formal campaign promises or proposals. His promises focus on ending corruption and being the 58th legislative deputy, working directly with the National Assembly.

Business friendliness

Castro has expressed his interest in privatizing state entities, such as the Institute for Costa Rican Electricity (ICE), establishing concessions in the development of public infrastructure projects, is a supporter of public-private partnerships.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Castro has not indicated what his stance on trade or what his foreign policy entails.

Social welfare programs

Castro has not indicated his stance on government programs.

Macroeconomic policy

Castro has stated that he will establish a value added tax of 13% and establish an accountability framework to monitor the government's use of the funds.

Hard Right- Guevara is one of the founders of the Libertarian movement party and has efficiently blocked Solís administration measures in the past three years. He is against raising taxes, and has instead proposed legislation cutting government programs in an attempt to reduce government spending. He also supports the privatization of several state owned entities, including the Costa Rican Institute of Electricity. He also has conservative social views, opposing abortion and same-sex marriage. This is Guevara's fifth presidential run.

Campaign promise

Guevara promises to "Place Order" by reducing the size of the federal government, the country's infrastructure, privatizing government entities, cutting social welfare programs, and reducing bureaucratic processes. Guevara has yet to provide a specific action plan.

Business friendliness

In certain aspects, such as not increasing taxes and opening markets that are currently dominated by government entities, Guevara showcases a friendliness towards the private sector. He also supports reforms that decrease bureaucratic processes that he believes deter investment and entrepreneurship.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

In regards to foreign affairs, Guevara does not seem to be driven by a nationalistic ideology and has expressed interest in reducing bureaucratic processes to facilitate foreign investment.

Social welfare programs

Guevara has stated that he intends to review all social welfare programs and provide services to those who really need them. Initial intervention is to be expected in the short term, while a reduction in government programs and government funds directed to those programs is expected in the long term.

Macroeconomic policy

In regards to macroeconomic policy, Guevara does not believe in creating additional taxes, but rather strengthening the current system to increase tax collection. Additionally, he aims to privatize government entities and cut government spending.

Right-Hernandez, with a background in medicine, gained support from PRSC key political figure and former president Rafael Angel Calderon. His ideology is highly based on conservative family values, and places family as his main pillar as a presidential candidate. Hernandez was the only individual to register as the party's presidential candidate.

Campaign promise

Hernandez divided his campaign into four pillars: 1. Human rights with a focus on family values, 2. Stabilizing and strengthening the economy, 3. Increasing security, and 4. Fomenting innovation.

Business friendliness

In business friendliness, Hernandez is likely to promote policies that benefit the private sector as he aims to create jobs through private enterprise and not through the public sector.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

On foreign affairs Hernandez is likely to maintain levels of the liberal ideologies in place, but has expressed contempt on "neighbors who trample Costa Rica".

Social welfare programs

Hernandez's conservative ideology will likely mean less intervention and limiting spending on social welfare programs.

Macroeconomic policy

In regards to macroeconomic policy, due to his conservative ideals, Hernandez is likely to follow orthodox policies. He has stated that he will have proposals to stabilize the economy through legal reforms to promote small businesses, tourism, and agriculture.

Center- Despite liberal tendencies, Piza has recently aligned himself to more conservative values, criticizing the spending and growth of the government in Costa Rica. It is important to keep in mind, however, that Piza is a conservative social on issues such as abortion and marriage equality. Piza has a long history in Costa Rican politcs, he ran as the presidential candidate for the PUSC in the 2014 elections, and comes from a family of politicians.

Piza's campaign promise of eliminate processes and bureaucratic obstacles is likely to benefit the private sector and increase the ease of doing business. His job growth strategy includes the strengthening of the private sector and attracting foreign direct investment.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Piza is likely to maintain the current foreign policy, following liberal trade policies. He has yet to indicate specific policy changes in regards to trade and foreign affairs.

Social welfare programs

In regards to social welfare, Piza has suggested a significant review on current government expenses on social welfare programs, including that of the integral package of health services and adjusting the variables of the welfare system. As such, under a Piza presidency we can expect reforms to the current social welfare systems.

Macroeconomic policy

In terms of macroeconomic policy, Piza does not provide any specifics. When discussing the fiscal reform, he suggests putting a cap on the government's fiscal deficit and public debt while decreasing the existing deficit without "dramatic measures". He has publicly opposed an increase in taxes.

Macroeconomic policy

Polls

Presidents are elected by majority vote, which must exceed 40% of the total number of votes. Should a candidate not receive that of percentage votes, a second round is held between the two candidates with the majority of votes, where the candidate who receives a simple majority wins the election.

- Primarily funded by the government, which provides funding during non campaign years, as well as in election years.
- Public funding for parties are proportional to the votes received.
- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on corporate donations from to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- No limit on donations to a political party during na elections, but a limit on donations to individual candidates.

Parties schedule their own internal primaries, meeting the candidate subscription deadlines established by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Candidates must be Costa Rican citizen by birth and older than 30 years of age. He/She cannot have been President within the past 8 years, or served as Vice President within the past 8 years. Should a Vice President wish to run for election, he/she must resign within 12 months of the election. Should a Minister of the Government wish to run for election, he/she must resign within 12 months of election

High level of election credibility. Democratic institutions in Costa Rica are strong and there is an active civil society.

Cuba Election Dashboard

Background Information

Brother of recently deceased Fidel Castro, Raul Castro, consolidated his role as Cuba's president and sole leader in 2008. Raul Castro led the country to a new strategy of diversifying international trading partners and reforms. The new rapprochement between the U.S. and Cuba has opened the door for new opportunities, and a sign of introduction of the country into the world market. The election is not likely to bring about much change. Cuba remains a one-party system, where opposition is often repressed. The speculated successor is Miguel Diaz-Canel, the current 1st Vice President.

In 2013, Diaz-Canel was elected as First Vice-President of the Council of State of Cuba and Council of Ministers. During his tenure he oversaw education, culture, sports, and press. Diaz-Canel is considered the new generation of Cuban politics, but is expected to continue with the policies instated by the Castro brothers for the past decades. It is said that Diaz-Canel is less of an ideologue than the Castro brothers, but was personally chosen by Raul Castro as the country’s next leader. He was the youngest-ever member of the Communist Party’s Politurbo, the party’s highest decision-making body.

Candidates

Hard left- Diaz-Canel is said to represent a new generation for Cuban politics, but is likely to maintain the status quo established by Raul Castro, including the recent opening of Cuba, while maintaining internal communist social policies in order to remain in power.

Campaign promise

Diaz-Canel has not developed a platform as he is not democratically elected.

Business friendliness

Diaz-Canel has been an important ally for Castro in the development of the opening of Cuba policies. It is likely that he maintain a positive level of business friendliness in order to sustain growth.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

In regards to foreign affairs, Diaz-Canel is likely to maintain the current opening of Cuba. He has also gained experience in foreign policy, often organizing and participating in delegations to China, Vietnam, and Venezuela.

Social welfare programs

Social welfare programs are likely to remain the same under his tenure, total state control of social services.

Macroeconomic policy

Diaz-Canel has not been an opponent to the reforms set in place by the Raul Castro administration. However, it is likely that the country's monetary and fiscal policy remain under tight control of the government.

No competitive or open democratic elections. Only one party, the Communist Party of Cuba, may run for office. Lack of data provides limited information on the electoral process and actual vote counting.

Dominican Republic Election Dashboard

Background Information

Information will be provided closer to the election date.

Key Dates

may 2020

General election

Elections take place every four years through direct election. A run off may take place if neither of the candidates receive 50% or more of the total number of votes. If this is the case, another election with only the two candidates with the most amount of votes is held. The candidate with the total majority of votes is the winner.

Senators and deputies are elected every four years. Senators are elected through a closed party list and 178 of the deputies are elected through a representational system, in which every 50,000 inhabitants receive one representative. Five national deputies are elected in an open list, where the candidates with the highest amount of votes are elected. The remaining 7 are elected to represent Dominicans abroad.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- No ban on corporate donations to political parties or candidates.
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties or candidates.
- No ban on anonymous donations to political parties or candidates.
- No limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party or candidate over a time period.
- No limi to the amount a donor can contribute to a candidate.
- Partially publicly funded.

Ecuador Election Dashboard

Background Information

Elected by majority vote, with the possibility of a run off election should no candidates receive na absolute majority of the vote. The two candidates with the highest majority of votes will participate in the run off vote. However, a run off can be avoided if one candidate receives at least 45% of the vote with a 10% difference from the other candidate. Elections are held every four years.

Elected every four years through three different methods: 116 are elected in single-member constituencies using first past the post voting, 16 are elected through a nationwide constituency using proportional representation, and 6 are elected from three two member constituencies representing Ecuadorians living abroad.

Universal suffrage starting at 18 years of age for citizens living in Ecuador, and 16 years of age for those living abroad. Compulsory voting, except for voters aged 16-18 or over 65 and those overseas.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on corporate donations to political parties during electoral campaigns, no ban on off years.
- Ban on direct corporate donations to candidates, donations must be received through the political party.
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties, but there is a ban on direct donations from trade unions to candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- Limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party during an off year stands at 200 "shopping baskets"annually, or an amount equal to 10% of the annual budget of a given organization.
- Limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party during na election stands at 5% of the spending limit for every public office contested.
- Partially public funded.

Ecuador has a credible election system, but the most recent election of 2017, however, raised suspicions of electoral misconduct and accusations were placed on both candidates, Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso.

Guatemala Election Dashboard

Background Information

Information will be provided closer to the election date.

Key Dates

march 2018

Ministers and cabinet members must resign

sep 2019

General election

President is elected through an absolute majority vote by obtaining 50% plus one of the votes emitted. A run off may take place if no candidates receive an absolute majority. Elections are held every four years, without possibility for reelection.

Universal suffrage. For president and vice president, an absolute majority vote election is held with a possibility for a run off. For legislative representatives, elections are carried out through a proportional representative system.

- Ban on donations from foreign interest to political parties and candidates.
- No ban on corporate donations to political parties or candidates.
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties, but there is a ban on donations to specific candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- Limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party over a period of time is of 10% of the limit imposed on campaign expenses.
- Also partially publicly financed.

In order to run for offica, a candidate must be a member of an existing political party, Guatemalan, and older than 40 years of age. No members of an armed revolutionary movement may run for president. Individuals that have been a part of the President's cabinet must resign within six months of the election. Relatives of a former president, up to the fourth degree, are ilegible to run.

Corruption is a significant issue in Guatemala, but democratic institutions have made great advances in the past couple of years with help of the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala. International watchdogs will be following this election closely, as it is a pivotal moment in Guatemala's political history.

Honduras Election Dashboard

Background Information

Election Results: December 19, 2017

The election on November 26th came with no clear results. According to the government’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), Hernandez won with 42.95% of the vote, while Nasralla secured 41.42%. However, the opposition declared foul play and accused the incumbent of tampering with votes and having the TSE on his side. The apparent victory by the incumbent Juan Orlando Hernandez has led to widespread protests and has raised concerns by regional and international actors. On December 18, the TSE declared JOH as president. Since this development, Nasralla has been campaigning abroad, meeting with OAS representatives stating that he has proof of the electoral fraud that took place.
The Organization of American States (OAS) determined that the electoral process was fraught with “irregularities” including human intrusion and intentional elimination of digital traces and has since called for a new general election to be held. It is unclear what the Hernandez government’s next steps will be. Within this context, it is likely that the JOH administration attempt to maintain the status quo, while the opposition carry out regional and international campaigns to attack the results. It is unclear if the Hernandez administration will concede to the recommendations by the OAS and hold a new general election. The continue of this situation is likely to cause instability within Honduras. Main cities and urban centers continue to see protests since the elections, while the JOH administration carries out a police crackdown that has led to the death of at least 17 individuals.

The 2013 elections were the first after the ousting of Manuel Zelaya in 2009, and a milestone in the country's political history as the two-party system broke with the introduction of new political parties. Juan Hernandez, of the National Party of Honduras (PNH), beat Xiomara (Iris) Castro, wife of ousted President Zelaya, in the 2013 election by less than 7 points, and the country underwent a transfer of power despite accusations of corruption and fraud by the other political parties. In 2016, the TSE voted to allow a consecutive reelection and President Juan Hernandez ran for the PNH's primary. The decision by the TSE has been denounced by the opposition as unconstitutional, but Hernandez remains in the race due to a high level of governability within the PNH controlled Congress, and maintains backing from the partisan judiciary. Primaries held in March 2017, narrowed down the candidates to: Luis Zelaya (PLH), Juan Hernandez (PNH), current president, and Xiomara (Iris) Castro. It is expected that Castro will be Hernandez's strongest competitor. Hondurans will also vote for 128 representatives in the National Congress and over a thousand positions in local municipal positions in the 2017 elections.

Update 1: July 24,2017

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has just published the final list of candidates for the presidential election. On November 26th, Hondurans will elect a president from a total list of nine hopefuls, which is a large number when compared to recent past elections. Since our first post, Xiomara Castro, the LIBRE candidate, has withdrawn from the election. Instead, she has signed on to the Alliance Against a Dictatorship, an opposition alliance comprised of the Anti-Corruption Party (PAC) and the Innovation and Social Democratic Party (PINU-SD). The alliance backs the candidacy of Salvador Nasralla, a television personality in Honduras. Nasralla counts on the support of key opposition politicians, including deposed President Manuel Zelaya, who continues to be an influential politician within the country. According to reports, Luis Zelaya (Liberal) was offered to join the opposition alliance, but declined the offer, deciding to continue as the Liberal candidate. Both candidates are at the forefront of the race, along with current President Juan Hernandez, who remains in the running. The remaining six candidates represent Honduras' smaller parties and according to most recent polls, do not have enough support to successfully hurt the chances of the three main candidates.

Update 2: August 30, 2017

With the campaign officially underway, the main political candidates have taken to press conferences and visiting small cities to gather votes. While the Nasralla camp, with support from former candidate Xiomara Castro and former president Juan Manuel Zelaya, have attempted to paint JOH as a corrupt individual bent on securing power, JOH has compared the opposition’s tactics to those used by the government of Venezuela, citing their support for the current regime. These tactics are unlikely to shift the current situation. In the polls, JOH maintains a steady lead over Nasralla, averaging out to 40% in the past three months, while Nasralla averaged a 22%.

Update 3: September 27, 2017

As elections approach, a victory for President Hernandez seems all but unavoidable. Polls indicate the vote intention has reached a balance point, with the PNH candidate maintaining his large and unwavering lead at around 40%, while the other candidates struggle to raise more support.
Although members of the international community, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Commission, have agreed with the Honduran government to instate an Election Observation Mission to monitor the elections, opposition Alliance candidate, Salvador Nasralla, claims he has proof the elections are being defrauded under the direction of the PNH. These accusations, however, have not managed to undermine the support for the current president. Contrariwise, the OAS threatened to denounce the opposition candidate after he insinuated the former had colluded with the PNH in order to defraud the elections, and his accusations are increasingly perceived as a desperate political maneuver. On the other hand, Hernandez is likely to reach the elections with a bolster in his approval rating, making a turnaround even less likely.

Update 4: November 11, 2017

With the elections only a few weeks away, candidates have continued to ramp-up campaigning across the country. Polls continue to show JOH in the lead, with a 30-point lead over opposition candidates Luis Zelaya and Salvador Nasralla, who have disavowed polling by CID-Gallup and Paradigma. Nasralla has gone as far as organizing protests in the capital and has ordered his team, led by former president Juan Manuel Zelaya, to establish an Opposition Alliance-led election center, to tally votes themselves, advising his followers to only trust their center’s results. This could lead to several problems on election day, as Nasralla and his team have led a month-long campaign to delegitimize elections in the country and severely damage election credibility in the country. The government and the institutions will likely face challenges should their election results differ from the Opposition Alliance, despite the fact that several international observers have confirmed their participation during the elections.

Key Dates

26 nov 2017

General election: presidency, deputies, mayors, and local councilors

Candidates

Right- During his tenure, Hernandez has focused on security issues by ramping up the military police force and combating gangs and criminal activity. Ideologically, he stands in the right of the ideological spectrum when compared to his more liberal opponents.

Campaign promise

Campaigns on the continuation of first term policies. For this campaign, he placed a focus on security and a "military police officer in every corner".

Business friendliness

Hernandez has been friendly with the private sector.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Center - One of the main issues in Honduras is security. In this regard, Hernandez is open to regional efforts to solve the issue, as can be evidenced in Honduras' role in the Alliance for Prosperity. During his tenure, he has also advanced with the customs union with Guatemala, which is likely to facilitate commerce in the region.

Social welfare programs

Left - Hernandez is an advocate for the development government assistance programs, as evidenced by his "Better Life" social program.

Macroeconomic policy

Conservative - Hernandez raised the sales tax during his tenure, raising government revenue.

Center Left- Zelaya is considered to be in the center due to his stance on education policy, private sector issues, and background in academia. It is important to keep in mind that this placement in the ideological spectrum is subjective to his opponents.

Campaign promise

Zelaya's campaign is not well structured and he has often described it as "the same as the others". He offers social liberal policies with a focus on education.

Business friendliness

Zelaya has expressed his intent to focus on national industry while also advocating for companies to invest in Honduras. As such, it is likely that he will attempt remain in the good graces of the private sector.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Center left - Zelaya has spoke little about his stance on foreign relations, but it is expected that he will continue to participate in the Northern Triangle regional initiatives, such as the Alliance for Prosperity.

Social welfare programs

Left - Zelaya, like his opponents, is a staunch advocate for social welfare programs.

Macroeconomic policy

Center - Zelaya has not been very outspoken on his stance on economic policy, but due to his economic background, it is likely that he stands more in the center.

Nasralla comes into the election with the backing of former candidate, Iris Castro (LIBRE) and the Innovation and Social Democratic Party (PINU-SD), forging the Alliance Against a Dictatorship. Nasralla, founder of the PAC, has been outspoken against the Hernandez government. This is Nasralla's second time running for president.

Campaign promise

Nasralla's campaign promises include fighting corruption at all levels. He has stated his intent to review the government's accounts and allocating funds to infrastructure projects, increase the country's agricultural production.

Business friendliness

Nasralla has promised to promote and attract investment through the establishment of investment facilitation strategies and policies. He has stated that he intends to increase Honduras manufacturing capabilities, in order to lower the import of materials and goods that can be manufactured in house. This is likely to benefit local business, but may hurt multinational corporation's market. It is important to note that Nasralla has provided little information on exact policies that would increase local manufacturing and production for in-country consumption and exportation.

Foreign affairs and trade policy

Nasralla has little experience on foreign affairs. He has yet to discuss this topic publicly.

Social welfare programs

Nasralla, like other candidates, is keen on instating social welfare programs. He has promised to subsidize energy consumption and formalizing peasant's agricultural production by developing government funded programs.

Macroeconomic policy

Nasralla has not indicated what his macroeconomic policy will likely be, but due to the developed alliance, it is likely that he stands within LIBRE's ideological spectrum on this issue.

Compulsory and universal voting, 18 years of age. The constitution prohibits active members of the armed forces and other security forces from voting.

Primary elections are scheduled over a year in advace, where Hondurans select the candidates who will participate in the general elections for the presidency and vice presidency, and open seats in the National Congress and municipal councils.

Primarily directly funded by the government, who provides funds to parties and independent candidates based on total representation.
Ban on donations from foreing interest to political parties and candidates
Ban on corporate donations to political parties and candidates
Legal for Trade Unions to donate to political parties and candidates
Ban on anonymous donations to candidates and political parties
No limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party over a period of time, or during an election
No limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a candidate

National Party of Honduras (PNH)
Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH)
Anti Corruption Party (PAC)
Christian Democratic Party (DC)
Democratic Unification Party (UD)
Freedom and Refounding Party (LIBRE)
Social Democratic Innovation and Unity Party (PINU)

Primaries are scheduled by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on election years, dictating the dates when candidates and their respective movements must register to run. Candidates must be Hondurian by birth, older than 30 years of age. Those holding a position within the government or working within a decentralized government entitity, must step down within six months of the primary. There are also many restrictions to military personnel, or those associated with the military, running for office.

Honduras allows for the observation and monitoring of elections by outside governments and actors, including the United Nations, the European Union, the Carter Center, and the Organization of American States. However, while the 2013 elections were marred with irregularities, targeted harassment, and intimidation, the TSE stood by the election results.

Legislative representatives are elected in a closed list process. The legislative is composed of an upper and lower chamber, where the upper chamber consists of 128 members, with 96 elected as three representatives per state and the rest of which are elected through proportional representation for a 6-year period. The lower chamber consists of 500 members elected for a 3-year period, 200 of which are elected by proportional representation, with the rest 300 elected by relative majority in single member districts.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on corporate donations to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- No limit on an amount a donor can contribute to a political party during an off year, but there is a limit on the total amount a party can receive over a period of time.
- Individual candidates are not allowed to receive direct contributions from any legal entity. Contributions to individual candidates should be channeled through the political party.
- Partially publicly funded as well.

Candidates must be at least 35 years of age on election day and must be both Mexicans at birth as well as born of Mexican citizens. Candidates must reside in Mexico during the year before the election and cannot hold cabinet posts or a governorship.

Mexican election credibility took a turn for the worse during the 2006 elections, which were wrought with as the losing candidate raised questions about election credibility that were echoed by the international community.

- There are provisions for direct public funding of parties political campaigns in Nicaragua.
- All public funding is allocated in proportion to the share of votes obtained.
- Donations from foreign interests to candidates or parties are not banned.
- Corporate donations to political campaigns are not banned.
- Donations from trade unions to candidates or parties are not banned.
- Anonymous donations are not allowed.
- There are no limits to the amount a donor can give to a campaign.

The unicameral legislature has 45 members directly elected by proportional representation elections and 26 directly elected in single-seat constituencies, for normally less populous districts, by plurality vote.

- Direct public funding is regularly provided to support both ordinary activities and campaign expenses of political parties.
- Funding for direct public funding is approved every 5 years and distributed by proportional representation in elected bodies.
- Corporate donations to political parties and individual candidates are allowed.
- Trade Unions are allowed to donate to political parties and candidates.
- Anonymous donations to candidates and political parties are banned.
- There is no limit on the amount of donations a candidate or political party receives.
- Political parties are banned from receiving donations from public officers or non-legal persons.

While Panamanian elections are considered to be fair and free, the incident famously known as the Panama Papers and the Lava Jato scandal have had multiple repercussions on the election credibility of the past election.

Paraguay Election Dashboard

Background Information

Since the last elections in 2012, Paraguay has enjoyed a cycle of economic optimism and growth, boosted by macroeconomic stability and large amounts of foreign investment. However, the country has not fully recovered from the controversial impeachment of Fernando Lugo in 2012, and, as the presidential elections approach, the political instability latent during most of Horacio Cartes’ tenure has begun to resurface. This was evidenced in April, when social unrest swept Asunción following the Senate’s approval of a Constitutional Amendment which allowed Cartes and other former presidents to run for a second term. Since then, strikes and demonstrations have taken place, and the result of the election could either relieve the current social tension or galvanize it. The party primaries will be held on December 17th. Candidate profiles will be provided once the primaries are complete.

The Partido Colorado (PC) has two possible presidential candidates. Cartes’ pre-candidate, his former Minister of Finance Santiago Peña (PC), is likely to keep the current agenda, focusing on building a business-friendly environment in order to attract foreign capital. Although Peña enjoys the benefit of being an outsider who can claim to be exempt from the usual practices of Paraguayan politics, he will have to overcome not only the rising unpopularity of his mentor, but also his adversary in the party’s primaries, Mario Abdo Benítez (PC). Abdo, whom the polls show to have the lead over Peña, is backed by the most traditional and conservative factions of the Colorado Party, wherein, unlike Peña, he and his family have a long history. Notwithstanding Abdo’s frequent claims that Peña is too liberal and unaligned with the Colorados, he has increasingly gained support within the party, making the result of the Colorado primaries unpredictable.

Despite the Colorado Party having won all but one election in the last 70 years, the largest opposition parties, the Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) and Lugo’s Guasú Front (FG), have united into one bloc, the Renovated Great National Alliance (GANAR), in order to build up enough support and beat the Colorados. Large sectors of both parties, however, are distrustful of the alliance. FG members resent PLRA’s support for Lugo’s impeachment. In turn, some PLRA members have gone so far as to express support for the Colorados after the Alliance was announced, especially after journalist and environmental activist Leo Rubín was chosen by the FG to be the Alliance’s candidate for vice-president. Still, PLRA’s president and most likely candidate, Efraín Alegre, has continued to endorse the Alliance, hoping to secure the votes of FG’s large social base. Alegre will face off against Carlos Mateo Balmelli – another experienced politician – and Martín Sannemann, both of whom are against the FG alliance.

Key Dates

17 dec 2017

Primaries

22 apr 2018

General Election

Representatives are elected through an open list and proportional voting by departmental electoral colleges, in accordance with the number of voters in each department. Senators are elected by voters in na open list, proportionally representing the party.

- Parties are primarily financed by the state.
- Ban on donations from foreign interest to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on corporate donations to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on anonymous donations to political parties and candidates.
- Limit of 6 time the minimum monthly salary/person on donor contributions to a political party. -
- Limit of 5,000 minimum wages on donor contributions during an election to a political party.

Parties hold their own internal elections for candidates within 90 to 35 days of the general election. In order to run, an individual must be a Paraguayan national and be of 35 years of age or older. Former presidents may not run for reelection, and a vice president must resign within 6 months of the general election in order to run. High-level public servants that wish to run must resign within 6 months of the general election as well.

Recent years have shown a timely release of preliminary elections and respectful recognition of election results by those who conceded in the elections. Nevertheless, doubt has been cast on the legitimacy of the last elections, as 2013 not only brought back the reigning party, but was also marred with claims of vote buying by the Colorado party. However, vote counting and regulations at the polls have remained democratic and voter turnout has stayed at around a 65% average voter turnout.

Peru Election Dashboard

Background Information

Elected every five years by a majority vote with the possibility of a run off if no candidate receives na absolute majority. The run off is held between the two candidates with the highest amount of votes.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates, all contributions must be channeled to a political party.
- No ban on corporate donations to political parties, cannot exceed the 200 tax unit limit. Ban on corporate donations to candidates, all contributions must be channeled to a political party.
- No ban on donations from trade unions to political parties, but all contributions must be channeled to a political party.
- No ban on anonymous donations to political parties, but a specific limit of 30 tax units per year exists. Candidates must receive contributions through their political party.
- Total limit on the amount a donor can contribute to a political party over time during an off year is a maximum of 200 tax units per year.
- Also partially public funded.

In the past years international watchdog organizations have questioned the election credibility in Peru. The most recent election saw the barring of several candidates in the race, due to movements in their campaigns that did not meet electoral regulatory standards. Many considered this to be a type of political silencing.

- Ban on donations from foreign interests to political parties and candidates.
- Ban on corporate donations to political parties.
- No ban on corporate donations to candidates.
- Ban on donations from trade unions to political parties and candidates.
- No ban on anonymous donations to political parties or candidates, but there is an established limit that cannot exceed 15% of the political parties' reported income of the year before.
- Partially publicly funded as well.

Elections in Uruguay are free and fair. The results are not often disputed and are credible.

Venezuela Election Dashboard

Background Information

Information will be provided closer to the election date. It is important to note that Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) has yet to set a date for the elections. The most recent news come directly from President Nicolas Maduro who confirmed that presidential elections will take place in late 2018.

Update 1: August 3, 2017
On July 31st, President Nicolas Maduro organized a vote where Venezuelans elected the members of a Constituent National Assembly. The Assembly is tasked with writing a new constitution and will be able to make significant changes, reshaping the current checks and balances system in place by redefining the powers of the legislative and executive branches. As such, it is not clear how the Constituent National Assembly will redefine Venezuelan elections and the voting system. It is important to note that this vote has been highly contested by the opposition, who held an unofficial plebiscite a few days before in an attempt to repudiate and delegitimize the upcoming vote. Main actors of the international community publicly denounced the vote, where the United States went as far as placing individual financial sanctions on President Maduro.

- There are no provisions for direct public funding of political parties by the government, however, it is not disallowed.
- Campaign finances must be reported to the Venezuelan Embassy.
- Political parties are banned from accepting donations or contributions from public entities.
- No ban or limit to the amount trade unions can donate to political parties.
- Donations that are anonymous or difficult to identify to candidates and respective parties are banned.
- No ban on corporate donations.

There is virtually no election credibility in Venezuela's elections, as most of the rules seen above are not followed in practice. Because of the fact that the socialist political party has monopolized the executive branch, the party has also been able to take over many aspects of government. Elections in Venezuela have not only created skeptics on the credibility front, recently, elections have not been held at all or are considered pending. This was the case in state governorship elections, which were meant to be held in December 2016. Added to constitutional changes and new presidential powers Maduro has been taking on, it is obvious that democracy is in a precarious state in the country.