Tim Russell’s 2017 Oscar Predictions (All 24!)

I’m looking forward to the Oscars this year, I’ve seen 99% of all the nominees in all categories and have formed some definite opinions (guesses?) about who the 2017 winners will be in all categories. I’ve had pretty good success in the past with the major categories, last year the only misfire was picking Tom Hardy (The Revenant) over the winner Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies) as Best Supporting Actor. lt’s when I get to the Documentary Feature, Documentary Short, Live Action Short, Animation Short, categories that I get too smart for the room. This year the toughest categories are Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. I look for very big night for “La La Land”, 10 wins out of 14 nominations, although last year “The Revenant only took home 3 out of 12 nominations, oh oh. Anyway, here we go!

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

Andrew Garfield HACKSAW RIDGE

Ryan Gosling LA LA LAND

Viggo Mortensen CAPTAIN FANTASTIC

Denzel Washington FENCES

This has become the one of the toughest races to call. Casey Affleck was so affecting in his portrayal of pain dealing with a family tragedy through escape into solitude, but Denzel Washington’s powerful portrayal of a flawed family patriarch has made him a contender with the momentum right now.

Will win: Casey Affleck

Should win: Denzel dWashington

BEST ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert ELLE

Ruth Negga LOVING

Emma Stone LA LA LAND

Natalie Portman JACKIE

Meryl Streep FLORENCE FOSTER JENKINS

Great performances all, but Emma Stone was so amazing in her “audition” scenes: she can porrtay more emotion with just her face and eyes than any actor I’ve seen this year.

Will Win: Emma Stone

Should Win: Emma Stone

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali MOONLIGHT

Jeff Bridges HELL OR HIGH WATER

Lucas Hedges MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

Dev Patel LION

Michael Shannon NOCTURNAL ANIMALS

I loved Jeff Bridges as the crusty Texas Ranger, and Lucas Hedges was a terrific newcomer, but Mahershala Ali was magnetic s the drug dealer with a heart of gold. His performance here and his SAG Awards acceptance speech about inclusion will carry the day for the voters.

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Should Win: Mahershala Ali

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis FENCES

Naomie Harris MOONLIGHT

Nicole Kidman LION

Octavia Spencer HIDDEN FIGURES

Michelle Williams MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

This race is full of wonderful performances but Viola Davis’ nomination here, instead of in the Best Actress category, makes this the surest pick of the ceremony.\

Will Win: Viola Davis

Should Win: Viola Davis

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

This one is an easy call: a picture about Hollywood, great acting , great music, great cinematography, etc., it’s “La La Land” all the way.

Will Win: La La Land

Should Win: La La Land

BEST DIRECTOR

Denis Villeneuve ARRIVAL

Mel Gibson HACKSAW RIDGE

Damien Chazelle LA LA LAND

Kenneth Lonergan MANCHESTER BY THE SEA

Barry Jenkins MOONLIGHT

Damien Chazelle has crafted a Hollywood musical masterpiece and will take the big prize.

Will win: Damien Chazelle

Should Win: Damien Chazelle

COSTUME DESIGN

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Normally this one goes to the best use of period attire and “Florence” and “Fantastic Beasts” performed that function in spades, but I’m going with Mary Zophries of La La Land, the Coen Brothers’ favorite costumer, mostly because she made me look like a Detective in “A Serious Man”.

Will Win: Mary Zophries

Should win: Mary Zophries

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

I liked “A Man Called Ove”, but in this category, go where the money was: “Star Trek Beyond”.

Will Win: Star Trek Beyond

Should Win: Star Trek Beyond

ANIMATED FEATURE

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

This is a race between “Kubo” and “Zootopia”, and the anti-prejudice sentiment of “Zootopia” will resonate with the voters, not to mention it’s Billion-dollar box office.

Will Win: Zootopia

Should Win: Zootopia

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Land of Mine, Denmark

A Man Called Ove, Sweden

The Salesman, Iran

Tanna, Australia

Toni Erdmann, Germany

“A Man Called Ove” was a real crowd pleaser, and Iran’s Asghar Farhadi has won this award before for “A Separation”, but the politics surrounding his boycott of the ceremony to protest the anti-immigration executive order this year, not to mention Farhadi’s skill as a story teller will win the voters.

Will Win: The Salesman.

Should Win: A Man Called Ove

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America

13th

“O.J.: Made in America” is more affecting to me than the TV drama “American Horror Story: The People v. O. J. Simpson” on FX, Even though I saw the “OJ: Made in America” Documentary on serialized on ESPN. The strong contender here would be “I Am Not Your Negro”, using the words of the late author James Baldwin to tackle racism in America. This is a must see documentary, given the times we are in.

Will Win: O.J.: Made in America

Should Win: I Am Not Your Negro

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

4.1 Miles

Extremis

Joe’s Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

Interesting category: The crowd pleaser “Joe’s Violin” is a wonderful story of a Holocaust surviver, but the race here is with: “Watani: My Homeland”, which puts a human face on the Syrian immigrant experience; “4.1 Miles”, a heart breaking look at the stranded immigrants at sea rescue story; and “The White Helmets”, a story of the true heroes of the siege of Aleppo.

Will Win: The White Helmets

Should Win: Joe’s Violin

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

Two more powerful immigrant stories here will dominate the votes over some really charming stories: “La Femme et la TGV”, the story of a lonely widow played by Jane Birkin, yes, that “Birkin Bag” Birkin; “Sing” about schoolyard inclusion; and “Timecode”, an unusual love story between two lonely security guards. It’s a tossup between “Ennemis Interieurs” (the Enemy Within), a chilling look at interrogation techniques, and “Silent Nights”, a multilayered love story between an African immigrant and a Danish shelter worker.

I Had the chance to work with Justin Hurwitz on “A Prairie Home Companion with Chris Thile” in Pasadena this year. Great guy, great talent!

Will Win: Justin Hurwitz

Should Win: Justin Hurwit

ORIGINAL SONG

“Audition” LA LA LAND

“Can’t Stop the Feeling!” TROLLS

“City of Stars” LA LA LAND

“The Empty Chair” JIM: THE JAMES FOLEY STORY

“How Far I’ll Go” MOANA

La La Land rules this year though vote splitting between its two nominations could hurt, but “City of Stars” is a total ear-worm.

Will Win: City of Stars

Should Win: City of Stars

SOUND EDITING

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

This one goes to the big action films most of the time so I think Mel Gibson’s big comeback war film “Hacksaw Ridge” will take it.

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge

Should Win: Arrival

SOUND MIXING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours

As a musician, Damien Chazelle knows about mixing sound and has a great crew although, truth be told, I couldn’t hear the lyrics of the opening number (“Another Day of Sun”) until my second viewing.

Will Win: La La Land

Should Win: La La Land

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

I think Kenneth Lonergan’s “Manchester by the Sea” will triumph over tough competition from “Hell or High Water” , “La La Land”, and “20th Century Woman” (Annette Bening has never been better). By the way, I hated the “tail end” of “The Lobster”.

Will Win: Manchester by the Sea

Should Win: Manchester by the Sea

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

I think “Moonlight” will get some love from the voters here to make up for other big category losses.

Will Win: Moonlight

Should Win: Moonlight

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

This is La La Land’s to lose, for me it’s a lock.

Will Win: La La Land

Should Win: La La Land

FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land Moonlight

Will Win: for La La Land.

Should Win: La La Land

VISUAL EFFECTS

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

“The Jungle Book is one of those amazing Live Action CGI extravaganzas that has you saying, “how in earth do they do that”.

Will Win: The Jungle Book

Should Win: The Jungle Book.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

“Fantastic Beasts” did a spectacular job of recreating 1920’s New York City, but Damien Chazelle’s love letter to the City of Angels will take the prize.