Staying alert

Markets had a rebound last week, but it lacked vigor. The lunar green period ended with a 54 point gain for Nasdaq. Not bad, but it only recovered a small portion of the 206 point loss in the preceding red period. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

The Earl index (blue line) has bottomed and climbed back to neutral, but the market is not really coming along very well. The slower Earl2 (orange line) keeps going down.
Expected strength around the 23rd per LT wave for August only gave us a weak rebound rather than a new record. This suggests the path of least resistance has turned down. A drop below 6200 would confirm that scenario. If so I would look for 5500-5600 as an initial target in that “correction”.

Since the trend is still in place a continuing rally is possible too. I would give that a 30% chance right now. In that case a breakout above 6400 would probably start a rally towards 6600 and thus new records.
If the uptrend (blue line) is still in place by the end of the current lunar red period then the odds for a rally to new highs would go up considerably. We will find out soon.

I will be back later this week with the LT wave chart for September. Stay tuned.