Kentucky Derby 2011: The Star-Ledger's picks

Rob Carr/Getty ImagesCarlos Correa rides Kentucky Derby hopeful Dialed In during practice runs at Churchill Downs this week. The horse is the early favorite to win today's race.

RON RIPPEY'S PICKS

It’s that time of year when everyone becomes a horse racing fan, and this year’s subpar field in the Kentucky Derby today gives both seasoned and casual bettors golden opportunities.

It has been years since the Derby field has collectively had such low speed figures, and this presents racetrack followers with a 19-horse field for the 137th running in which virtually no one can be excluded from consideration.

It’s anybody’s race when the morning-line favorite is assigned odds as high as 4-1 before the betting begins, but that’s the case with Dialed In, unquestionably the most steady performer in the field but vulnerable due to his late-running style against a large bunch, relatively slow times in prior races and up-in-the-air weather conditions.

MASTER OF HOUNDS (30-1) violates this handicapper’s time-tested rule of not betting on horses in their first race back from far-away Dubai. However, he has the best breeding in the field to navigate the grueling 1¼ miles of the Derby, the first time anyone in here has gone that far. That was proved in his last outing, in Dubai, when he lost by a nose after leading in a 1 3/16th-mile, $2 million event, only 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby.

There are negatives. The Derby will be Master of Hounds’ first race on a dirt — and perhaps a sloppy — track. However, he did show ability moving from a five-race career on grass to an the artificial track at Meydan. In his prior start, his only other race in the United States, he was bet down to the favorite’s role as a 2-year-old in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf race but had to be steadied early and then fanned four wide and finished sixth, three lengths behind the winner on Churchill’s turf course. Master of Hounds also has positional early speed, which becomes important to avoid traffic, and he faces a field without a speed demon. He has one of the best riders and judge of pace in the country, Garrett Gomez, and one of the leading trainers in Europe, Aidan O’Brien.

STAY THIRSTY (20-1) looks forgettable off his last race, a dull seventh, 16¾ lengths behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. However, that was the first time super trainer Todd Pletcher put blinkers on the $500,000 colt — and they have been quickly thrown away. Just as important, Stay Thirsty has the pedigree to go the distance and has been working sensationally, especially on a sloppy track in Louisville. Eclipse Award winning jockey Ramon Dominguez rides. Stay Thirsty becomes Pletcher’s lone runner after the scratch Friday of his No. 1 threat, Uncle Mo.

Ironically, Stay Thirsty has drawn the No. 4 post, the same post Super Saver won from last year, giving Pletcher his first Derby triumph. His victory on a sloppy track would not be a surprise.

ARCHARCHARCH (10-1) would have been this handicapper’s top pick if he had not drawn the dreaded No. 1 post and had there not been the threat of rain. Both of those factors can be costly for the well-bred closer if he gets trapped on the rail in the mud.

Jockey Jon Court remains as Archarcharch’s rider, and while he is not among the jockey’s elite, he has won more than 3,000 races, including 300 at Churchill Downs after scoring a riding triple Thursday. His victory with a clean trip on a fast track would not be a surprise.

DIALED IN (4-1) must be considered on all exotics tickets. He has not finished worse than second in four career races (winning three), has the services of Julien Leparoux, who is a magician at Churchill Downs, and is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito. Dialed In also has the breeding to get this distance, has been drilling smartly in Florida and is the “one to beat.” He has, however, never stepped foot on a wet track and only had to rally around fields of eight, five and nine in his past three outings.

1. Dialed In is the best horse in the race. Will need to win off the pace, which he has done twice this year from far back. Because he runs so late, he will need a perfect trip in an imperfect field. Well-placed in gate next to the speed horses.

2. Nehro. Nobody has ever won this race from post 19 and he will have his hands full that wide. But he has guts, and looked as though he wanted to run further when closed well in his past two stakes races. Should improve off those two because he is the youngest colt in the race.

3. Mucho Macho Man trained well this week. Victimized when he threw a shoe at the start in Louisiana Derby but still got third. Can benefit from tiring horses ahead of him.

Only if serious mud — Take a shot at Soldat. He has the inclination and the trainer (Kiaran McKLaughlin).

*****

TOM LUICCI'S PICKS

1. Dialed In should get the favorable fast early pace he needs, even without Uncle Mo, and broke his maiden at Churchill with a rousing finish in his only start at 2.

2. Santiva had all sorts of problems in the Blue Grass and has a flexible racing style that should fit well here. He won a Grade 2 stakes over the Churchill surface in November.

3. Animal Kingdom alleviated some fears about his ability to handle the dirt with the way he has worked recently, and the late addition of John Velazquez is a huge plus.

4. Master of Hounds is being shipped here for a reason and can land a share in the gimmicks after his solid showing in the UAE Derby.