India Forex Advisors / Market Commentary /25_Apr_2011

By IBT Staff Reporter On 04/25/11 AT 12:58 AM

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.4541 levels. Euro continues to maintain its bullish momentum above 1.4500 levels & it has also been boosted after the positive comments from China's official in Europe that they will possibly purchase more sovereign bonds. Immediate support comes near 1.451 (21 days 4 Hourly EMA), while the resistance is seen at 1.4647(Recent high) levels.

EUR/INR is at (64.73) Exporters can cover at current levels for April exposure while importers can cover below 64.40 levels and further on dips. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 64.55 - 64.95 levels today. Short term: Bullish and Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

GBP/USD: sterling is currently trading at 1.6497 levels. On the data front retail sales unexpectedly rose 0.2% mom in March. Markets were expecting a drop of -0.5%. Public sector net borrowing was lower than expected at 16.4b. Support for the pound is seen at 1.6462 (21 Day 4hourly EMA)and the Resistance is seen at 1.6511(Recent high).

GBP/INR (73.45) Exporters should cover near term exposure at current levels while the importers can look to hedge near 72.90 levels and further on dips. GBPINR is likely to trade in the range of 73.35- 73.70 levels. Short Term: Bullish and Medium term: Maintain bullishness.

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 82.34. The BOJ over the weekend has indicated that the economy after the earthquake could go into recession which resulted in Yen getting weaker today. Strong Resistance is seen near 82.76 (55 days 4 hourly EMA) while Support is seen near 82.23 levels (21 days 4hourly EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels and Yen Importers can cover very partially at 84 plus levels. Short term: Bullish for the pair

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar is currently trading at 1.0729 levels. The Currency is Bullish as the rally in gold continues and on sign that the global economy is improving. Resistance is seen at 1.0800 levels while strong Support is seen at 1.0695vlevels (21 days 4hrly EMA). Exporters are suggested to book exposure at current levels while Importers can cover their exposure near 1.0500 regions and on dips. Short Term: Bullish Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Oil: Crude oil is currently trading at $112.66l. Middle East zone tensions are continuing to intensify with deadly protests in Syria and Yemen over the weekend. Resistance is seen near 113.40 levels and Support is seen near 108.75 (21 days daily EMA). Short term to Medium term: Maintain Bullishness.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at $1513.04.4 levels. Gold continues it rally above the 1500 mark amid weakness in Dollar and as debt concerns continues in EURO. Investors are now seeing precious metals as good alternative for future and also as a hedge against rising inflation. Psychological resistance is seen near 1520 levels while on the downside, buying is expected near support at 1503.31 levels (21 days daily EMA). Gold seems to be in super bull phase. Medium term: Bullish

Dollar Index: Dollar Index is trading at 74.06 levels. The Dollar fell as Euro continues to be positive after bullish comments from China's officials that we will purchase more sovereign bonds. Looking ahead today New Home Sales expected to be better. Near term Support is seen at 74.00 levels and Resistance is seen near 74.22 levels (4 hourly Fibo). Outlook remains bearish for Short Term and Medium Term: Bullish (Post June-July).

DISCLAIMERThese views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.