Russia and Turkey's new friendship is bad news for the West

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks to Russian President Vladimir Putin

The European Union and Nato face a significant challenge from the unfolding diplomatic rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. For centuries, these two countries were implacable enemies and efforts a decade ago to forge a strategic partnership were undone by the Syrian civil war. While Moscow propped up Bashar al-Assad, Ankara either stayed out or supported his enemies. Relations hit a low point last November when Turkish jets shot down a Russian Su-24 bomber near the Syrian border for violating Turkey’s airspace. Russia imposed sanctions and a freeze descended once more.

But even before the attempted military take-over last month, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had decided he could no longer afford a cold war with Moscow and began making overtures to the Kremlin. The failed coup appears to have expedited matters: yesterday Mr Erdogan met with Vladimir Putin to agree to normalise relations between the two countries.

For President Putin, the opportunity to drive a wedge between Turkey, Nato and the EU is a small price to pay for abating Russian anger over the jet incident. He must recognise in Mr Erdogan a leader cut from the same cloth - a democratically elected nationalist behaving more like a despot.

Watch | President of Turkey greets supporters at rally

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The Turkish leader’s purge of opponents after the thwarted putsch has alarmed EU leaders who had encouraged Ankara to believe it could join the Union at some point in the future and had promised to introduce visa-free access for Turkish travellers to the Schengen area. But no date has been given for either and several EU countries have made clear they would veto Turkey’s accession. Europe has been desperate to keep both options open in order to stop Turkey reneging on a deal to keep Syrian refugees from crossing into Europe.

But Mr Erdogan seems to be cooling towards Europe, none of whose leaders have been to Ankara since the failed coup, and is seeking alliances elsewhere. The implications of an improving relationship between Russia and Turkey are significant both for policy on Syria and for Nato itself. The US nuclear base at Incirlik is a key part of western defences; were Turkey to leave the organisation its loss would be a serious blow. Perhaps a weakened Mr Erdogan needs a thaw with Russia more than Mr Putin needs him. But the Russian leader has grabbed at the chance to cause fresh consternation in the capitals of Europe and in Washington.