Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

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On 21 February 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) published recommendations on the composition of the vaccines for the 2019/20 northern hemisphere influenza season. Considering recent changes in the proportions of genetically and antigenically diverse A(H3N2) viruses, WHO will announce the recommendation for the A(H3N2) component later, on 21 March 2019. Read more.