Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Wall's early exit from the Big Dance shouldn't hurt his draft stock.Even in the loss to West Virginia he showed another gear and fantastic play-making ability in the open court.

2)Minnesota Timberwolves-Evan Turner- SG (Ohio State)

There has been some buzz circulating that Turner may actually be the first overall pick, ahead of Wall.I think that notion is absurd at best, but Turner is definitely the second best player in this class and a perfect fit for a Timberwolves team in need of an identity and a leader.

3)Washington Wizards-Derrick Favors- PF (Georgia Tech)

Washington is clearly in re-building mode, so they'll tap the highest potential player available.DeMarcus Cousins may be a part of that discussion as well, but the last thing the Wizards need is another headache.

4)Golden State Warriors-Wesley Johnson- SG (Syracuse)

Golden State loves long perimeter players who can shoot.They could also use a true power forward like Favors, with Anthony Randolph's development and commitment to the organization still in question, but with him gone, this becomes a pretty easy choice for Golden State.I believe that Johnson's shooting ability would make him a shooting guard for just about any other team in the league, but he'll likely play small or even power forward (in stints) for the Warriors.

5)Detroit Pistons-DeMarcus Cousins- C (Kentucky)

The Wizards and Warriors will likely stay away from Cousins because of the concern that he would only add to their ongoing turmoil. The Pistons, however, with their history of success with the Bad Boys and their overwhelming need for a lane-clogging center would love for this scenario to unfold.

6)Sacramento Kings-Al-Farouq Aminu- SF (Wake Forest)

Sacramento's most pressing need is at point guard, and depending on where their pick falls, they could be tempted to take a gamble on Eric Bledsoe (assuming that he declares).The more prudent choice, however, would be gamble on Aminu's development or grab the best available center (Greg Monroe or Cole Aldrich).A trade of this pick along with Andres Nocioni's contract is possible here too.

7)Indiana Pacers-Greg Monroe- PF/C (Georgetown)

The Pacers would love to find a do-it-all shooting guard, and I wouldn't be surprised if Xavier Henry was high on their list, but the value here is in big men.Monroe is a very intriguing big man whose skill set seems like it would appeal to GM Larry Bird.

8)Philadelphia 76ers-Donatas Motiejunas- PF (Lithuania)

Philadelphia has a nice young core, but their future plans are very much up in the air.This pick could go a lot of different ways depending on who their coach will be in 2010-2011, and who they plan on moving this summer.(Remember, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert were rumored to be on the move at the trade deadline.)

9)Utah Jazz-Cole Aldrich- C (Kansas)

Aldrich is NBA ready and has a very steady game.He'll probably never be an All-Star, but he'll provide whoever drafts him with consistent production and few headaches.

10)Los Angeles Clippers-Hassan Whiteside- C (Marshall)

Whiteside is an interesting prospect because of his length and athleticism, but he is far from a finished product.He will definitely need some time to mature physically and mentally, but his ceiling is very, very high.

11)New Orleans Hornets-Ed Davis- PF (North Carolina)

Davis' wrist injury and North Carolina's struggles lead some to believe that Davis will return to school next year, but very few players pass on being a lottery pick once, let alone twice.New Orleans needs depth up front and at the small forward.Jan Vesely is a possibility, but they need help sooner rather than later, making Davis a better fit.

12)Houston Rockets-Eric Bledsoe- PG (Kentucky)

I've been steadfast in saying that Houston needed to tap a backup center like Whiteside or Solomon Alabi with this pick.I still believe that, but Bledsoe's value is much higher at this pick, and Kyle Lowry could leave this summer, making the backup point guard job very much up in the air.

13)Chicago Bulls-James Anderson- SG (Oklahoma State)

Say what you will about Anderson's ability to create his own shot.He is a great shooter and a solid athlete, who would be the perfect fit along with Derrick Rose on the Bulls' perimeter.

14)Memphis Grizzlies-Jan Vesely- SF (Czech Republic)

Memphis has stated publicly that they intend to match any offer for Rudy Gay, which leads me to believe that he'll sign his qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer.Vesely would be a nice replacement down the line without using a roster space this season, which is important, as Memphis boasts three first round selections.

15)Miami Heat-Patrick Patterson- PF (Kentucky)

Patterson doesn't have the explosive athleticism or the raw talent of many of the big men in this class, but he has a lot of heart and a solid track record.I see him as Udonis Haslem 2.0 in the NBA, but with a more manageable price tag.

16)Minnesota Timberwolves-Ekpe Udoh- PF (Baylor)

It is a bit of a buyer beware situation with Ekpe Udoh.He has great athletic ability, but he's a 22-year old junior with faltering knees.His offensive game has developed nicely since his transfer from Michigan, but will his body hold up long enough for him to reach his full potential?

17)Miami Heat-Xavier Henry- SG (Kansas)

Without question, Henry is the steal of the draft.He has an NBA ready body and a well-rounded offensive arsenal.I think that Henry could be an All-Star caliber player within his first three or four years in the NBA.

18)Milwaukee Bucks-Avery Bradley- SG (Texas)

The Bucks would love to land Henry and could be tempted to move up to get him (Minnesota's 16 pick is a possibility, as well as Houston's at #12), but if they stay put they'll settle for Bradley, who needs more seasoning, but will be a better defender despite his lack of ideal size.

19)Portland Trail Blazers-Quincy Pondexter- SF (Washington)

Portland has been ravaged by injuries this season, so it's tough to tell what they'll have to work with next year.They appear to be set in the backcourt (Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless), and relatively comfortable up front (LaMarcus Aldridge, Greg Oden, and possibly Joel Pryzbilla), but small forward is still a question mark.Pondexter is a very productive four-year college player and a relatively local product.

20)Oklahoma City Thunder-Larry Sanders- PF (Virginia Commonwealth)

I see a lot of Serge Ibaka in Sanders, but as they say, you can't get enough of a good thing.

21)San Antonio Spurs-Dominique Jones- SG (South Florida)

Jones is an under-the-radar prospect who could flourish in the right system.I get the sense that Manu Ginobili is ready to part ways with the Spurs organization, and Jones would be a suitable replacement in the sixth man role.

22)Oklahoma City Thunder-Solomon Alabi- C (Florida State)

OKC would love to move one of these picks or find a bargain on an international prospect, but given the opportunity to take Sanders and Alabi, I think they would.Alabi has great size (7'1") and the potential to turn into a nice piece for an up-tempo team like the Thunder.

23)Boston Celtics-Devin Ebanks- SF (West Virginia)

Ebanks has been all over the map this season, but he's gotten himself solidly back into the first round with his play over the first two weekends of the NCAA tournament.With a strong showing in Indianapolis, he could vault himself back into the lottery discussion.

24)Atlanta Hawks-Gani Lawal- PF (Georgia Tech)

Lawal was largely overlooked this year thanks to the shadow of teammate Derrick Favors, but his rebounding prowess is hard to miss.He should have a long and productive career as a defensive specialist.

25)Memphis Grizzlies-Jordan Crawford- SG (Xavier)

Crawford went from YouTube sensation to petulant underperformer early in his time at Xavier, but he really made a name for himself in March.I'm still concerned with his attitude, but the physical skills are undeniable.He's definitely worth a look at #25 for a team with looming questions on their perimeter.

26)New Jersey Nets-Jarvis Varnado- PF (Mississippi State)

Varnado projects as a shot-blocking specialist at the next level, but if they Nets plan on making a run at Carlos Boozer or David Lee this summer, having a shot blocker waiting in the wings would be a great compliment.

27)Minnesota Timberwolves-Paul George- SF (Fresno State)

George had a cult following early in the season but fell off after his team struggled.He has all the physical tools to be an 18 points per game scorer at the next level, but needs quality coaching and levelheaded players surrounding him in order to reach this potential.

28)Orlando Magic-Sheron Collins- PG (Kansas)

I said in my last mock that Collins' draft stock would take less of a hit than his lottery-hopeful teammates, but according to some scouts, the opposite is actually true.Collins tried to do way too much in the Jayhawks' loss to Northern Iowa, and some are worried about his fit as a backup in the NBA.Still, the depth at the point guard position should see him fall somewhere between #25 and #35.

29)Memphis Grizzlies-Kevin Seraphin- PF (France)

This may be a bit of a reach for Seraphin, but his youth (18-years old) may make him the most likely of the international prospects to be overvalued.And, as we've seen the last few years, it's trendy to reach for international players late in round one.

30)Washington Wizards-Greivis Vazquez- SG (Maryland)

Vazquez has appeal for the Warriors because he is a local product with a great head on his shoulders.He should also be able to play multiple positions at the next level, which is a huge asset for a roster with a high turnover rate.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

With Kansas' shocking loss to Northern Iowa, Wall's Wildcats are the hands down favorites to claim the title in Indianapolis.His skills are undeniable and his brand is already off and running, so whoever lands this pick would be crazy to look elsewhere.

2)Minnesota Timberwolves- Evan Turner- SG (Ohio State)

Turner's ball handling skills have been sufficient all season long, but his resolve has really been tested through the Buckeyes' first two tournament games.Turner has struggled with his shot and been turnover prone, but his body of work speaks for itself.And, let's remember, he has been playing out of position all season, while achieving All-American status.

3)Golden State Warriors- DeMarcus Cousins- C (Kentucky)

Golden State is a tough team to project for a couple of reasons.They have a lot of needs at the three through five spots, but they've gotten unexpectedly ample production from several D League call-ups (Anthony Tolliver and Reggie Williams, among others).The future roles of these players will have a large impact on the Warriors' draft plans.While I don't know much about either player, I think that Williams has a better chance of sticking in the NBA than Tolliver, thanks to his knack for putting the ball in the basket.Corey Maggette also gives Golden State some options at the small forward, but with Andris Biedrins injured, the Warriors are very thin up front.Cousins is a very intriguing prospect with boundless potential.He does have some character issues, but during the SEC semifinal against Tennessee, one of the CBS announcers offered the following explanation of those problems- "It's easy to forget when you watch him play, but he's only a 19-year old kid."

4)Washington Wizards- Derrick Favors- PF (Georgia Tech)

Favors is a great athlete and has could become an All-Star at the next level.It took Georgia Tech almost all season to realize it, but their team thrived when they ran the offense through Favors.He probably needs more seasoning than Cousins, but he'll be much less of a headache for a team that could really use a break in that department.

5)Detroit Pistons- Donatas Motiejunas- PF (Lithuania)

This is the doomsday scenario for the Pistons.The would love to land either Cousins or Favors, but with both gone, they are left with three options: take the best player available and abandon their need for a big man, reach for Cole Aldrich (the remaining big man who provides the best fit), or take a chance on another foreign big man with the initials D.M.Unfortunately for Pistons' fans, trading the pick or rolling the dice on Motiejunas makes the most sense in this scenario.

6)Indiana Pacers- Wesley Johnson- SG (Syracuse)

The Pistons' pain is the Pacers' gain as Indiana gets the best all-around offensive threat in this draft class.Johnson can have an impact on both ends from day one, and would be a great compliment to Danny Granger on the perimeter.

7)Philadelphia 76ers- Al-Farouq Aminu- SF (Wake Forest)

I still think Xavier Henry would be the best fit for the 76ers, but with his team's early exit from the big dance, his stock is bound to take a hit.Aminu provides the best value at #7, but isn't the outside threat Philly could really use.

8)Utah Jazz (from New York)- Cole Aldrich- C (Kansas)

The 8th pick this year reminds me of the 9th pick last year.Sure, there were still quality players on the board (Brandon Jennings, Ty Lawson, etc.), but the sexy names were all gone, and the crapshoot really got started.Like Henry, Aldrich will likely suffer for his team's inexcusable early exit, but he fills a need for Utah and he's miles ahead of the next center on the board (Solomon Alabi).

9)Sacramento Kings- Ed Davis- PF (North Carolina)

This is an absolute value pick for the Kings, who have zero need at the power forward position, but with no quality small forward or point guard options available, they'll take a bit of a gamble on a high-upside player like Davis.Also, a trade is a very real possibility given this scenario.

10)Los Angeles Clippers- Hassan Whiteside- PF (Marshall)

Like Sacramento, there is no player on the board who fits the Clippers' needs, so they'll likely do something extremely brash, like taking a flier on a guy like Whiteside, who only has three years of organized basketball experience.(Michael Olowokandi anyone?)

11)Chicago Bulls- James Anderson- SG (Oklahoma State)

The Bulls will collectively wet themselves if they get the opportunity to choose between Anderson and Xavier Henry, but given that the teams directly ahead of them have long-term answers at shooting guard, it could happen.Both are very complete players, but Anderson has better range and more leadership qualities.

12)New Orleans Hornets- Greg Monroe- PF (Georgetown)

Like Henry and Aldrich, Monroe really hurt himself in the NCAA tournament.A first round knockout always hurts a player's stock, but especially when it's a big man playing against a 14-seed from a mid major conference.Monroe should have been able to put the Hoyas on his back and carry them through that game.With that said, he does have a tremendous set of skills which should make him very effective at the next level.

13)Houston Rockets- Solomon Alabi- C (Florida State)

I've had Houston making this pick about a hundred times now, but I just don't see what other choice they have.Take a look at the roster- Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry at the point; Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger at the two; Trevor Ariza and Shane Battier at the swing; Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes (Face it, he's a power forward), David Andersen, and Jordan Hill at the four; and Yao Ming an no one else at center.I suppose a trade is possible here or reaching a bit for Jan Vesely, but otherwise Alabi is a no-brainer.

14)Memphis Grizzlies- Devin Ebanks- SF (West Virginia)

I've had Ebanks all over the first round.He was a top 10 pick at the outset, but he missed the first few games, struggled with consistency and production, and found himself in the mid-20's for a time.However, his game has really come together nicely just in time for the Big Dance.The looming showdown between Kentucky and West Virginia could be one of the best games of the year, and it could do wonders for Ebanks' draft stock.

15)Minnesota Timberwolves (from Charlotte)- Xavier Henry- SG (Kansas)

Like 2009, Minnesota uses their first two picks on players at the same position.If they had the second pick again, they'd probably choose to pair Cousins with Henry instead of Turner, but a perimeter rotation of Turner, Henry, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, and Wayne Ellington gives them a lot of options.

16)Miami Heat- Patrick Patterson- PF (Kentucky)

Patterson is a steady and versatile player, who will never be a superstar at the next level, but should carve out a nice niche near the top of Miami's bench.

17)Miami Heat (from Toronto)- Avery Bradley- SG (Texas)

The Texas freshmen are really the wildcard in this draft class.Bradley and Jordan Hamilton both have first round skills and potential, but both could use some seasoning.For now, I'm projecting Bradley to leave and Hamilton to stay, but that situation will be very fluid.Bradley is very strong defensively and has the ability to change a game offensively from time to time.

18)Milwaukee Bucks- Ekpe Udoh- PF (Baylor)

Udoh has done more to help his stock than just about any other player in the country, and he has a chance to build on it in the Sweet 16.Saint Mary's rolled through Richmond and Villanova, but Baylor will provide a new challenge.Keep an eye on the matchup between Udoh and Gael's big man Omar Samhan, as it should determine the winner.

19)Portland Trail Blazers- Damion James- SF (Texas)

James has been a consistent player in his four years at Texas, and Portland could use his steadiness.He is a great rebounder and a good leader with a very smooth offensive arsenal.

20)San Antonio Spurs- Luke Babbit- SF (Nevada)

Babbit is the kind of unheralded player that San Antonio loves to swoop in and grab.He is a good rebounder and one of the most efficient offensive players in the nation.He may decide to stay in Reno for another year, but if not, he's got first round written all over him.

21)Oklahoma City Thunder- Larry Sanders- PF (Virginia Commonwealth)

Oklahoma City is one of the best-built franchises in the NBA right now, but they could really use some depth and shot blocking up front.Sanders provides a lot of length and athleticism, and should be able to make a regular impact defensively.

The Thunder get a steal this late in the draft with Vesely, who is very raw, but at 19-years old and 6'11" tall, he has a lot of room to grow.

23)Boston Celtics- Paul George- SF (Fresno State)

Boston will have some huge holes on their perimeter next year, especially if the choose not to re-sign Ray Allen, and George has the potential to be a starter down the line.He needs a lot of coaching on decision-making and shot-selection, but he has all the tools be a really effective NBA player.

24)Atlanta Hawks- Stanley Robinson- SF (Connecticut)

Atlanta could use some frontcourt depth, but Robinson is a great value at this point in the draft, and his athleticism would be a nice asset off the Hawks' bench.

25)New Jersey Nets (from Dallas)- Gani Lawal- PF (Georgia Tech)

Lawal is the best rebounder in this class, and a real pleasure to watch.He would be a stabilizing force near the top of the Nets bench.

It's pretty likely that Minnesota will move one of their three picks in the first round, but which one is still a looming question.Accordingly, I'll keep them at #26 where the select Pondexter, a long small forward with a versatile skill set.

27)Memphis Grizzlies (from Denver)- Alexey Shved- PG (Russia)

Memphis would be smart to grab an international prospect with one of their three first-round choices.Shved is a young Russian point guard with great size (6'7") and solid court vision.

28)Orlando Magic- Sheron Collins- PG (Kansas)

Collins' disappointing end to his college career will hurt his draft stock less than his teammates because of the scarcity at the point guard position in this draft.He's probably still the number two PG in this class, but Eric Bledsoe could certainly overtake him with a strong showing late in the tournament.

The following rankings determine the most effective and most consistent players on each NBA team. Only players appearing in 60% of their team's games are eligible. Effectiveness is measured using the mean of the player's fantasy value, calculated by ESPN's formula [Pts + Reb + 1.4*Ast + Stl + 1.4*Blk -.7*TO + FGM + .5*TGM -.8*(FGA-FGM) + .25*FTM - .8*(FTA-FTM)] and consistency is measured by the standard deviation of the player's ESPN values divided by the mean.