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Final Product in MAFs GFE Term A - RH RFTI Term B - WS 1 Indicates that only one element of a Red Flag has been met  Documented problematic fires that occur outside of RF conditions for west Texas Plains (Lindley, et al) 0 Indicates neither RH or WS terms are within Red Flag

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Other considerations All Red Flag days are not equal Dependent on magnitude of specific weather elements Antecedent fuel conditions Response to RFW may be different depending on Planning Level or on local decision makers During drought periods may not take “as much weather” to produce control problems (if fuels predisposed) RFTI quantifies severity of Red Flag conditions and increases SA RFTI not a predictor of fire starts, utilized in analysis, forecast, Fire Potential(?)

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More considerations Created in the grids for Fire Weather Zones/CWFA/PSA, falls out of grids Similarly to RH/Wind/Temp grids RFTI can be calculated hourly on GFE A max for the day Takes a little heavy lifting up front to get the climo data set up

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Quickly see where worst conditions are By quantifying RF conditions forecasters can include enhanced wording in products or briefings Red Flag Threat Index

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Feb 25 2008 Outbreak Fires over a large portion of Texas, as were positive temperature departures RFTI 3 or greater over a large part of the state, RFTI max along temperature departure This case really started to bring to light that RFTI is a composite index - RH, wind, T Combination of RFTI and temperature departure caught the largest fires, Glass/Silver 5-2, 4-3, 3-3

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Jan 1 2006 Outbreak Fire occurrence map shows that fires occurred over a large part of TX Temperature Departure map shows large positive temperature departure over state RFTI and 10hr FSM also depicts a large area of concern RFTI must still be used with other data, i.e., CFWP thermal ridge 5-5, 4-5

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Summary Continued On Regional Outbreaks days multiple ingredients of Critical Fire Weather Patterns come together Thermal Ridge Mid level Wind Speed Maxima (Jet) Dry slot Positive T Departure Chinook/Downslope Winds Dryline Tools like the RFTI can help quantify/assess the conditions Just how bad will the weather get Still each case is a little different, thermal ridge orientation, fuel Indices are empirical and need other data, temperature and fuel ***RFTI thought of as Composite Index*** RH and Wind Catches thermal ridge because temperature is built into RH

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Part 2 – Decision Support Historically NWS Meteorologist issue products for specific groups, aviation and fire weather, do TX WFOs really know how the products are used? Room to gain better understanding of user objectives, i.e., TFS Fire Management Assessing Fire Potential - Occurrence and Response Capability Fire Weather Watches are of utmost importance to plan effectively How large is TFS response area? Gives coordination a new perspective, where are worst expected? Be aware of concerns outside of WFO boundaries How much time does TFS have to prepare? Lead time is critical, time to move resources to most strategic location Equipment maintenance issues, how long to get it fixed

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Moving forward to aid in Fire Operations Decision Support Recent Advances WFOs can generate GFDI, RFTI, and Temperature Departure maps Generated at the click of a button or automatically GFDI T DepartureRFTI

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Overlay Era Improving our overlay capabilities we can get better idea of where different weather features align with each other and with fuels Availability of climate data - directly improves fire weather forecast By use of the GFDI Midland can get fuel data into GFE, through a curing factor RFTI GFDI RFTI Temperature Departure

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The Future Midland believes this to be the beginning of a paradigm shift and a partial glimpse of future Fire Weather Forecasting By incorporating: Climatology through percentile ranks in RFTI Fuels through use of the GFDI Climatology in temperature departure analysis Get a more complete picture of fire weather and fuels, provides greater awareness and good decisions

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