Ukraine's parliament elections mark first test for its new actor-turned-president

David Stern, The Washington Post

Published
9:43 am EDT, Thursday, July 18, 2019

KIEV, Ukraine - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky - a politically untested comedian who in April won by a landslide to become the country's leader - faces his first major political trial on Sunday, as voters elect a parliament that could spell the success or failure of his political program.

In his inaugural speech in May, Zelensky unexpectedly dissolved the legislature and called for elections three months before they were scheduled in the hopes of capitalizing on the massive wave of political support that he rode into office before it dissipated.

His strategy seems to be paying off. Polls show that Zelensky's Servant of the People party, which only months ago didn't exist, is on track to win more than 40% of the popular vote, mirroring his overwhelming victory in April over incumbent President Petro Poroshenko.

The big question looming over Sunday's vote, however, is whether Zelensky's party will win a parliamentary majority outright, or if he will be forced to strike a political bargain with one of the other parties.

As with the presidential elections, Zelensky is tapping into a profound reservoir of discontent in the country over rampant corruption, a sluggish economy and the unresolved war against Moscow-supported separatists in the country's east that has killed some 13,000 people.

Many of the names on Zelensky's party list are political newcomers like himself, whose main calling card is that they that they seem to lack any ties to Ukraine's oligarch-dominated political system. Some of the candidates were chosen through open applications on social media.

And, in imitation of his presidential campaign, Zelensky is drawing generously from the character he played in a popular comedy series before becoming Ukraine's commander in chief: a righteous, modest, politically pure outsider who is elevated unexpectedly to the presidency.

For one, Zelensky's political party shares the same name as his sitcom. He also keeps up his man of the people image by regularly posting chatty, informal videos and photos on his various social media accounts - for example, working out, or buying a Middle Eastern shawarma sandwich at a filling station.

This unassuming persona masks a more complicated reality as president, however. Zelensky's first two months in office have been marked with ostensibly contradictory impulses.

These include throwing his weight behind long-anticipated reforms and reaffirming Ukraine's ties to the West. But at the same time, he maintains ties to one of Ukraine's richest men, Ihor Kolomoisky, and has called for a ban on all officials from the previous administration from holding office (though it's unclear how exactly this would be implemented.)

"He's a populist, he's a reformer, he's an authoritarian and he's a democrat," said Balazs Jarabik, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who follows Ukraine. "He has all of these bits and pieces."

The question remains open then over which version of Zelensky will emerge after Sunday's parliamentary vote. One thing is certain though, he will need a more compliant parliament whatever political path he chooses to pursue.

Currently, the legislature is dominated by Poroshenko's political party and its allies, who are vocal opponents to Zelensky's main initiatives. Parliament also has a major say in determining the members of Zelensky's cabinet.

If he does fail to win a majority of seats, then the search will be on to strike a deal with a like-minded coalition partner - though his options are slim.

Parties must pass a 5% threshold to enter parliament. Besides Servant of the People, those who appear most likely to accomplish this are a pro-Moscow party, Poroshenko's political bloc and former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko's Fatherland party.

At the moment, the best candidate to form a coalition with Zelensky is another political newcomer: the reformist, Western-friendly Holos (Voice) party of Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, Ukraine's biggest pop star, which is polling around 8 percent.

"If Zelensky has a majority, he will have written history - this will be the first time in Ukrainian politics one party has done this," says Jarabik. "If he doesn't, then we will have the same muddy politics as usual."