The top 10 and 20 for 2011 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers and your receipt for a $30 massage valued at $50. Thanks, Groupon! Today, Razzhands, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2011 fantasy baseball rankings. Don’t believe me? Click the link. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2011. Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round. Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Lance Berkman when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard? I don’t. I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball:

8. Kevin Youkilis – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Dunn. I call this tier, “Your last chance for a 1st baseman I’d feel safe with.” Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day. Now, granted, Youuuuuuk had a fluke injury last year that should be fine in 2011, but do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x? I wouldn’t. Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder? Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier? And this is only one tier down. Go another tier down. How do you feel with Howard compared to Butler? With Fielder compared to Huff? Sure, some of the guys below may produce, but there’s also lots of pitfalls in there. As for Youuuuk, as mentioned, he should be fine returning from injury and give you his usual 25+ home runs and good counting stats. 2011 Projections: 95/27/95/.300/5

9. Justin Morneau – Last year, Morneau pulled a Kotchman and missed like a gazillion games. I wonder if his doctor warned him not to lie in a hammock under a palm tree for fear a coconut would drop on his melon. Eh, probably not. But maybe! Morneau’s more valuable than Youuuuuk if he can stay healthy, but put Morneau staying healthy in one hand and a fortune cookie that says, “Morneau never stays healthy” in the other hand and what do you have? Exactly! 2011 Projections: 85/25/100/.285

10. Adam Dunn – I have no scientific proof of this, but I think we’re due for a .240 average season from Big Donkey. I mean, two seasons of .260+ now for him. He’s playing with the house’s money, ain’t he? Unless he sold two of his usual forty homers for twenty points on his average. Then maybe Juan Pierre sold four steals to buy Dunn a hairbrush. That’s like that O. Henry story. 2011 Projections: 80/40/100/.245

11. Kendry Morales – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Huff. I call this tier, “You got caveats. Now go floss.” Morales has one solid season under his belt then a limp-off home run. Here’s what I said when he got hurt, “Too bad the Wide World of Sports isn’t still on. They could’ve covered the agony and the ecstasy all in one full swoop (with Morales’ home run). This injury reminds me of the time Justin Duchscherer heard The Hokey Pokey and in celebration put his right hip out. And didn’t put his right hip back in for six to eight months later.” That doesn’t mean anything as far as fantasy is concerned, but it made me giggle. I got some gems up in this mug! You’re welcome. There’s not much to say about Morales. If he’s healthy, draft him for 27+ home runs. If he’s rusty as all get out, then you’re sitting in a public restroom realizing ten minutes too late there’s no toilet paper. 2011 Projections: 80/26/95/.290

11 1/2. Adam Lind – His caveat is his strikeouts skyrocketed last year. Still, I’m a sucker for Lind. I wouldn’t be if 30 homers didn’t seem like such a pipe dream for so many players nowadays. I can’t promise you that he will return to the 35 homer hitter he was in 2009. It’s far from scientific but what I think happened last year was he was being unlucky so he expanded the strike zone causing the bottom to fall out. The numbers back up this theory. His HR/FB% was also off last year. Another 5 homers on top of his 23 homers last year is easily doable. With a little luck, you’re looking at a .270, 30 homer guy. With a lot of luck, you’re looking at even more. (Note: He only has 11 games at 1st base that’s why he got a half. Check the fantasy baseball position eligibility, fool!) 2011 Projections: 80/27/90/.270

12. Carlos Pena – I already went over my Carlos Pena fantasy when he signed with the Cubs. His caveat is his average. It could be silent and deadly. 2011 Projections: 70/35/95/.235/3

13. Billy Butler – It’s Mardi Gras and you have one more string of beads. You see what you believe is a foxy number, but you can only see her from the neck down. Do you wait to see her face or do you throw your beads on chest size alone? Those who drafted Butler last year after his 21 homer year in 2009 threw their beads and got flashed with a rack of moobs. Mr. Grapefruit just doesn’t have huge power potential like his Humpty Dumpty-shaped body would indicate. 2011 Projections: 80/20/90/.310

15. Paul Konerko – Last year, Konerko had his highest HR/FB% since 2005. He had his highest home run total since 2005. He had his highest strikeout rate ever. His lowest walk rate since 2004. His highest BABIP in his career. You got damn lucky last year if you owned him. If you own him again this year, you’re doubling down on an eighteen and the dealer’s showing a picture card. 2011 Projections: 70/24/85/.265

16. Aubrey Huff – I don’t buy his 2010 season at all. Actually, that’s a lie. I buy it. I just don’t think we can trust he’ll do it again in 2011. Not to mention, a big flashing red arrow is pointing at his alternate seasons of 15 home runs a piece in 2007 and 2009. If you get an off season from Huff, you’ve just lost your league. That’s just me being real wit’ you. You see the truth is everybody wanna know how close me and Huff is. Or who I’m still cool wit’. 2011 Projections: 70/22/80/.275

17. Lance Berkman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Derrek Lee. I call this tier, “Oldies and not so goodies.” Maybe you draft someone from this tier and you get a 2010 Konerko. Maybe you get a 2010 Berkman. I would try not to live too much in the past. These guys have deteriorating skills. As for Berkman, line drives are down (literally!), ground balls are up (not literally!) and fly balls are down (literally!). St. Louis isn’t going to help turn around his career slide. Sorry. 2011 Projections: 65/20/75/.270/5

18. Carlos Lee – Member how I said two seconds ago that one of these guys may be a 2010 Konerko? If I had to bet, I wouldn’t guess public enemy #1, Chuck Lee. 2011 Projections: 65/24/75/.260/3

20. Adam LaRoche – The people who draft LaRoche late and say they just want his 25 home runs and don’t care that he only hits in the second half are the same people who ask me on April 15th if they should drop LaRoche for Gaby Sanchez. That word is bond. 2011 Projections: 75/25/90/.265

21. Derrek Lee – Didn’t really want to turn this thing to 21, but I couldn’t fit Lee anywhere else and felt he needed to be accounted for especially with his new home in Baltimore. To think I couldn’t get in James Loney at all. Just don’t think about it for too long. It’s a waste of time. So let’s see why Derrek Lee is a candidate for a rebound… He’s old. He’s only hit more than 22 homers once in the last five years. He’s dealing with an injured thumb. The only reason I can think people are suddenly excited about Lee is because the O’s signed him. The O’s also finished in last place last year thirty games under .500. This is a team you want to emulate? If you’re pumped to find Lee on your draft board this late, you’re living in 2005. Go buy some Apple stock, it hasn’t peaked yet. 2011 Projections: 75/18/80/.275/3

After the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but these two stand out:

Gaby Sanchez – He’s a lot closer to Billy Butler’s value than he appears to be and at half the cost in your drafts. Actually, he might be better than Billy Butler. He’s only unofficially listed at number twenty-three because I wanted to highlight him. Check out his projections then look at Billy Butler’s. How’s dem apples? Delicious! 2011 Projections: 75/20/90/.270/5

I can keep 13, the rest go back to auction. Salary is an issue, but let’s not worry about that. League plays with 2 C, 2 at both 2b and SS, one at each corner, one additional INF of any kind 5 OF and 8 P. Mostly, this is a no-brainer, but I’m stuck on wanting to keep 14:

Who should take the fall? I keep targeting Napoli, Stewart, Gardener or Rasmus at different times but keep finding a reason to talk myself out of it each time. Any thoughts on who should go and what categories I’ll need to target at auction (outside of pitching SAGNOF)?

Drafted from the 3 spot and had my least favorite razz mock last night. Had no clue who to go with at 22 (seeing the top 21 were the same top 21 listed in your top 20, Grey). I went with Dunn. Pitching is OK and I like having all the 1B. I knew OF would be pretty weak. Also, I didn’t realize I drafted the whole ChiSox murderers row until after the draft.

@Swagger Jackers: I like Ike, too. Bad ballpark and some solid pitching in the division, but he did hit 19 HRs as you point out. Having Beltran and Bay back can’t hurt, protection-wise. If I miss out on getting a big 1B bat or need CI late, Smoak and Ike are the guys I like. I’d rather do that then take Butler, Huff, etc.

off topic here but i get one of these emails everyday. that and brazilian wax emails. i’m not a chick here groupon, lets use some of your 15 billionty dollars to match offers to customer data. haven’t had a massage in years, but if i ever do there’s no way i’ll pay full price after seeing how desperate these masseuses are with the price breaks. makes me want to sign up for tampa bay just to see $90 Rays seats going for $5 come August.

@Swagger Jackers: Nice snag on Griffey. I really like your team. Love the pitching. I’d be a bit worried about going to battle with Juan Pierre and Jennings is supposed to start the year in the minors.

@Yes, I said it!: Yeah, I fixed it. Switched Swisher and Lee in my head somehow.

In a 5×5 H2H league, I’m legitimately thinking of totally punting HRs & RBIs (and slightly Runs), with the intent being to try and lock-up all pitching categories + SBs and AVG. One of the reasons: an owner (not named Larry) has acquired about 10 picks in the first two rounds, and I am sure he will be going with a classic “own power” strategy. Ultimately, with this strategy, HRs & RBIs are useless to me – which makes it interesting at 1B since those are typically big categories at this position.

My question: Should I be looking at getting my hands on some moobs, waiting to the very end to grab a guy like Loney -hoping for a bounceback in AVG-, or go another direction entirely?

@Sir Larry: If it’s H2H, then you’ll only face that manager every few weeks, but the majority of the time you’ll be facing teams in the same predicament as you. Are you going to punt power if the team you’re facing doesn’t have any either? As a general rule of thumb, punting HR isn’t a good idea.

@GopherDay: Yes, I would execute a total power punt. It is not something I think I could scramble and try to pull together most weeks. I would write those two categories (HR & RBI) off, and put all of my efforts into the others. If I win six of the others, I still win.

My sense is that no other owner will have the balls to punt categories, especially HR. Most other teams in the league will likely be “balanced” but relatively weak. Therefore, I think I can beat most of them most weeks if I commit to pitching/speed/avg. Thinking to our playoffs, where I’ll almost for sure face our stacked-pick owner, my belief is that a non-power focus is my only chance to better him h2h.

i have the berkman tier ranked in about the same place, relative to all the other 1B, but i’m less down on them subjectively. you don’t want any of those guys as your starter. but if you can get them late, like mid-teens, they start to have their own brand of abandoned-veteran upside. grey acknowledges that with his konerko remarks, but i think he’s underplaying it a little. which i mean i understand why, since his first job is to talk kids out of drafting berkman in the 10th on name value alone.

but – take berkman for example. his knee was barking last year. but his massive eye ratios didn’t go anywhere. as far as power, the four years before 2010, he hit 45, 34, 29, and then 25 in less PAs than usual. not denying the obvious overall decline trend. but he’s 35. that’s old, but not ancient. the skills are still there. if his legs show up healthy i believe there’s still 30-ish HR power in the body. in a way i think that has just as much upside as a guy like smoak.

of course, now they have him playing outfield… wah? but then, he knows that, and signed up for it voluntarily, and is probably getting in shape for it. that might even be an advantage. at first, anyway. if nothing else, it shows that berkman himself still believes in his own knee. maybe he’s delusional, but whatever, it’s something. so – draft him late, hope he roars out of the gate and rebuilds some of his name value with the public, then decide whether to ride it or deal him before he gets hurt again? too crazy?

@Grey: I don’t really like Figgins but outside of Hanley I had no speed at all in that point in the draft. Wanted to grab Hill at that spot, but he was taken. Seeing the fact that I needed SB and didn’t like anyone else on the board at that spot, I took Figgins.

I like Kuroda, along with a host of other pitchers around that spot. Marcum, Chacin, and Morrow always seem to get taken a bit earlier. As far as the guys I like, Gio and Kuroda seem to be the most undervalued. I may have gotten both of them in every mock. As far as Santana goes, I missed the fact that Zambrano was still on the board. mdc has him buried.

@wily mo: reply to self: talking more about berkman and derrek than carlos and laroche with those remarks. not a fan of the latter two.

also, i should say, if you’re going to do what i’m talking about, you have to be ready to treat your berkman the same way you’d treat a smoak, i.e. if he doesn’t hit, just drop him. people who’d feel stuck with him once they had him because he’s lance berkman definitely shouldn’t draft him. i’m only talking about getting him with a pick you’re willing to punt on quickly. personally i’m willing to punt quickly on any pick in the double digits, so maybe i’m more comfortable with this kind of approach than most people.

huh, thome back to minnesota, same half-time role as last year probably. interesting sneaky late pick for home run power on teams you’re able & willing to micro-manage. or heck, even ones you’re not, maybe – he had the same # of home runs as laroche last year. in half the ABs. of course, his HR/FB was… what… 34. so i guess it’s POSSIBLE he won’t do that again

@Grey: (re: thome) yeah, it’s probably not worth the effort in standard depth 12-team type scenarios. as soon as you go a little bit deeper, though, those start to be home runs that are hard to find anywhere else. it was weird how tempted i was by him sitting on the wire around august last year.

i guess just somebody to not completely forget about. basically, of all the DH-only, non-full-time players in the league, i think he’s the best. !!!

@big o: I don’t think that you would have done too poorly on pitching with the way that the draft shook out, since Hanson and Scherzer are pretty solid, but I would have gone after more SPs in rounds 12-17. Also, your team looks pretty speed-heavy (Kinsler, Jeter, Rios, Victorino, Davis, Crisp, Borbon), and a bit light on power (Morales, Kinsler, A-Rod, Hamilton, Scott). Were there no cheap power options late in the draft?

Still can’t believe you ranked Kemp over Cargo, it’s mind boggling and I probably respect your opinion more then anybodys……This kid is the real deal…will he finish 1st again this year, probably not, but I don’t see him finishing outside the top 10 and I see him outperforming Kemp in every category, cust kayin.

Years ago , I attempted to research my “premise” that :
Ed Charles , 3rd baseman for the 62-64 Kansas City A ‘s
(and later , of the Mets) , was the “losing-est” player in baseball history .

From the stats on the back of baseball cards , I was able to determine
that he was one some pretty poor minor league teams , as well .
However , as it was an on-going study , I was unable to keep up with
the task , much less compare his stats to other “losers” .

Will that database , that you’re researching , provide the answer to
the question ==> “which player lost the most times , in MLB history ?”

Take a look at VinWins’ position breakdown sheet to see which pitchers are going, and more importantly, when. Though add about 24-36 spots of ADP if you’re doing mocks with regular people because you already know how exaggerated we get at Razzball ;)

@sean: I wasn’t too thrilled with the draft. I really had no clue who to take at 22 and still don’t. I’d probably take Dunn there again if I had it to do over. Beltre was not my favorite pick, either. I struggled finding someone I liked at 27, too. I do like the fact that he’s in Texas, now. That can’t hurt. I got Konerko at the end of the 6th round and he was by far the best player on my board at that point. I don’t expect nearly 40 HRs again, but I’d guess 25 is his floor. Note that I also got Ortiz later. It was the least favorite of all my drafts but I wanted to try a draft similar to what Ashy Larry did in the razz mock #3.

This has to be one of the worst list of potential keepers — 15 team, 6×6 roto league, with keepers only held for ONE year — but I have to choose 7. I ask now because I am considering trading for draft picks 2012. Don’t think I can win, place or show with this group. Would appreciate any suggestions:
Sure to keep:
Zimmerman (Ryan)
Johnson (Kelly) – got him on the cheap last year — thanks!

Hey Grey, love the website and all the advice. I have a question about my keeper league. It is a 7×7 roto with 14 teams, and we can have 6 keepers. Just a one catcher league. i am keeping:
AGonz $22
Prince $26
Stanton $1
Wandy $1

Who would you go with the last two spots between:
J. Chacin 1
D. Brown 1
M. Montero 1
J. Montero 1

Thanks Grey…surprised by your preference of Hudson over Nolasco for 2011…but I suppose it comes down to intuition…the guy who is supposed to be a stud and never performs to expectations (Nolasco), or the guy who performs above expectations but about whom no one is convinced (Hudson). I still like me a Chacin though. Would like Matusz if I didn’t feel compelled to sit him every week he faces Boston & NY.

how much time do you actually spend compiling these lists ?
is it a gradual thing you spend months on , or is it more of a savant-like
beat the dead-line thing , like a college kid cramming for an exam ?

i read this stuff , and i re-read this stuff …. and sometimes it takes
a long time to sink in .

and as much as i didn’t want it to be true , you’re right about Howard .

It’s tough for me to put Morneau in the “last chance for a 1st baseman I’d feel safe with” tier. If anyone comes with a shiny set of caveats, it’s Morneau. Pre-2010, his stock dropped because of concern over the back injury that ended his 2009 season prematurely. Now we can add the fact that we haven’t seen him since July, and he still has not resumed baseball activities. The Twins claim to be optimistic that he’ll be ready for Spring Training, but recovery from post-concussion syndrome is impossible to map out.

Morneau might have top 10 upside if healthy, but he has the greatest chance of anyone on this list of giving you absolutely nothing. One more knock to the noggin is all it would take. As a Twins fan, I’m hoping that Morneau can stay healthy, but I wouldn’t be shocked if you told me that Cuddyer would get the most starts at 1B in 2011.

@Grey: Grey, if you had to choose one position between SS, 2B, and 3B where you only spend $1 in an auction — and would then likely spend the majority of the season endlessly scouring the waiver wire for the right player, which position would you choose?

Same mock here, but I was completely blitzed and cheering on my Packers…Last season in my competitive money league I waited till the 13th for my first SP and ended up 3rd, so I was trying to take a look at what could be had that late…but yeah too many autos

at the out-set , my plan was to go with daric barton (about rd.15) as my corner , for the BB’s , but someone drafted him in the 10th as his primary 1st baseman … ugh .
after that , my focus switched to vicideo , but , after 20 rounds
chipper was still there (!) …
and then mlb.com came out with an interview on him ,
2 days ago …. and with 9 picks left to go , chipper got sniped .
now , am thinking about switching up , from vicideo (playing time/batting average) to e.e. (prospects for 25 homers … also limited playing time and average).

i think i’m hurting only in the BB category ,
though if the draft had allowed for a 2 or 3 man bench ,
i would have picked up this kid melancon ….. i think , after the heart-break
of getting kicked out of the big apple , that he will re-bound nicely … and
am high on his prospect and career path .

@RandomItalicizedVoice: Scutaro?! Kidding. Your offense looks lacking and it’s probably because you took your first pitcher then three more in the matter of four rounds. You stopped taking offense for too long and it shows.

@big o: Some say commitment, others say OCD. How am I conducting a slow draft? If someone wants to do it, they can. Don’t like your outfield or your middle infield. Love Liriano and Marcum, not crazy about any of your other SPs.

steve can tell you more about how to run a slow mock draft ,
he’s in another one that i’m doing .
it’s prolly got sumpin’ to do with opening up a forum page ,
and being able to post everyone’s picks to it , round by round .
the e-mail link has everyone’s addy’s and is sort of like a chain letter ,
so everyone know who picked whom , and whose turn it is .
takes about 8-12 weeks to complete .
allows lots of time for study , comment opportunities , and is good fun .

really like my outfield .
bound to be some weak spots , in a 15-teamer .
drafting on the turn …. maybe i over-reached , some .
nature of the beast .