BP Articles

BP Chats

Are there any players going in the first ~4-5 rounds of most drafts that you are really hesitant about for perhaps nitpicky reasons?
e.g. "I am concerned about how Kluber will hold up given his heavy workload" etc.?(nschaef from NYC)

Carlos Gonzalez due to the combination of injury risk and the possibility that he gets traded out of Colorado. And while I still like George Springer, I think that last season might be an indication that he's not stealing bases any more, turning him into a four-category guy instead of a five-category one. (Scooter Hotz)

What is your projection for Domingo Santana? I know many are concerned about his Zone Contact rates, but this is a guy that raked in the minors, and his profile seems somewhat similar to George Springer and even Kris Bryant who both have Zone Contact Rate concerns.(holmesp2001 from St. Louis)

Probably a low batting average (.230) with a lot of home runs. George Springer's rookie year minus the hot start is probably a solid comp. I do wonder if they'll platoon Kirk Nieuwenhuis with Santana early to ease Santana into the role. (Mike Gianella)

RJ, what are your thoughts about Miguel Sano?? Looking at his strikeout totals, I have a hard time believing MLB pitchers don't figure him out. (Mike from Minneapolis )

I think Sano is something to behold.

I'm always weary about hitters who strike out a lot. Even so, we've seen young hitters adjust and lower their strikeout rate in time (George Springer, for example), and I think Sano is an interesting case anyway. He's hitting for an extreme amount of power because he's as strong as an ox and drawing an extreme amount of walks thanks to his patient, disciplined approach. As a result, the swing and miss is less worrisome than usual, because I'm inclined to think of him as the big, bad wolf brand of hitter who can overcome the contact issues by walking and hitting the soul out of the ball when he connects.

Basically, I think Sano is going to be fine-probably better than fine. (R.J. Anderson)

If Seager keeps his SS eligibility, it's not much. The tipping point, though, is that Springer will provide 20+ stolen bases. Seager isn't a five-category contributor, and while I'm concerned about Springer's batting average, it's not going to drag down his value. Seager stole six bases last year and has just one this year. He's a potential stud, but I'll usually side with the five-category contributor -- unless Seager sticks at SS, obviously. I'd put Seager around 45-50 overall. Springer is 25-30 for me. (J.P. Breen)

Oh boy this is a good question. I go with Springer because I think there's more pop in the bat, but all Pederson does is get better. They're both fantastic and you should love them equally and thank them for being in your life. (Christopher Crawford)

What's interesting about Springer is that people don't realize he's actually older than Giancarli-Mike Stanton. Pederson is 2.5 years younger, and has far better bat-to-ball, although Springer certainly edges him out in power. It kind of depends on what type of player you like, and I'll probably still take Springer by a nose just because he did SLG .460 in limited time last year. Yet, it's definitely close. (Jordan Gorosh)

In 2014, Altuve and Rendon cemented themselves as 2nd round picks in 2015. In 2015, name some players who may become 2nd round picks in 2016? Heyward is one?(Vic from Baltimore)

Guys in the third or fourth round who could push up to that level are George Springer, Carlos Gonzalez, and Nolan Arenado. Springer and Arenado probably fit what you're looking for: young guys who could hit that breakout. I like Heyward, but I'm not sure if he's going to provide enough speed to get there. 3rd/4th round value seems like the ceiling (although Michael Brantley seemed like this kind of guy and he did it last year). (Mike Gianella)

Who are a couple hitters and pitchers you see breaking out this year? Thoughts on Bogaerts?(Jobu from Cerrano's locker)

I like George Springer coming through and meeting a lot of the potential/hype we were looking at last year. Oswaldo Arcia is a boom/bust proposition this year, but if he can even get the average to .250 there is a lot of power there. For pitchers, I think Zack Wheeler takes a big step forward this year and I also like Drew Smyly joining Cobb as a big impact guy for the Rays.

I'm closer to Ben Carsley on Bogaerts than I am to the negative nellies. I see some improvement this year, with 15-17 home runs and a .260-.270 average a realistic expectation. I agree with Ben and think the breakout comes in 2016 or 2017. (Mike Gianella)

Will George Springer make more contact, or is last season something we'll see more of with his strikeouts? (Earl from Houston)

So, he struck out in 33 percent of his plate appearances last year. Let's think through the relevant bits of information we have:

1. He struck out just as often--more, actually, in the second half of his plate appearances as his first, so there was no apparent adjustment that he made.
2. He struck out in 26 percent of his plate appearances as a 22YO in High-A, 30 percent as a 23YO in Double-A, and 24 percent as a slightly older 23YO in a shorter stint at Triple-A. Using the information Jeff Moore and Andrew Koo found in their article on plate discipline scouting last week, we can roughly estimate the trajectory of his K-Rate going to the majors, and it would work out to, ohhhh... 28, 29 percent. So 33 percent is higher than expected.
3. PECOTA says 32 percent this year.
4. He's older than he was last year, so we should expect him to be a better hitter this year, kind of.

So that's a murky line. They contradict each other. But I think he'll strike out less often. I'd put it at 29 percent this year. (Sam Miller)

Brett Lawrie and George Springer sleepers heading into next year? Both could easily be top 50 players if they get 600 at bats. (Daniel from Orlando)

Springer is only a sleeper in shallower formats; there is no way people aren't going to be aware of him based on the early outburst. Many still see 30-35 home runs. Lawrie fits the classification better. He hasn't lived up to his early potential in his initial, truncated season and there is definitely the possibility he improves. That being said, I wouldn't have him in my Top 50 for '15. (Mike Gianella)

Taylor was a toolsy OF that many didn't see putting the total package together. He did and it is loud. He will always strike out but he can play defense and the power has shown up along with the stolen base utility taking a step forward. Legit prospect. (CJ Wittmann)

Harper, Sale, Upton, Walker, Gausman, Wheeler and Springer. 12 team leagues, you keep guys who are contributing. Having this many prospects in this shallow a league is bananas. Drop a bunch. (Craig Goldstein)

2. Do you believe the Astros' trade conversation notes, the ones that Deadspin published, that had the Marlins essentially asking for that for Stanton?

3. Do you think that the Marlins were actually willing to make that move, or just blowing off the Astros by saying "that's what we'd start at", knowing the Astros wouldn't touch it?

Personal opinion is that I'd rather have the Correa/Springer package than the Taveras/Martinez package. I don't know the answers to no. 2 and no. 3. I guess my guess is that it wouldn't net Stanton. I'd do it if I were the Cardinals. I don't think the Marlins would. (Sam Miller)

Think Michael Taylor can control the Ks enough to be an above average big leaguer?(Wally from DC)

Yeah, though the strike outs will keep him close to league average offensively. It'll be his defense and baserunning that bring the whole package up slightly. The strike outs are going to be a major issue though. He could strike out at George Springer levels but without quite as much impact power. (Jeff Moore)

Michael Taylor seems to be really breaking out in AA. yes the K's are high but so is the average, homers, and steals. The dude also plays elite defense in CF. He doesn't seem to be getting much love though. Am I missing something?(Jimbailey82 from Florida)

No, you're not. The game is changing and Taylor fits part of the new mold of players who don't worry about striking out and still manage to be productive. It's the George Springer mold. Everyone was worried about his strike out totals. Well, he's certainly not perfect, and he's striking out a ton, but he's been darn productive in the majors. Taylor could be a Springer-lite. (Jeff Moore)

Help on a trade proposed: Give George Springer for Dustin Pedroia? 10-team/12 Keeper Standard league....and generally what 2Bs would you target in dynasty leagues?(pmitchell60 from NOLA)

I'm not making this trade. I'm worried about Pedroia. He's on the wrong side of thirty, the homers have declined as his fly-ball rate has declined, and he's not running this year. I wouldn't feel comfortable giving up a top-tier talent like Springer for that profile.

In dynasty leagues, I'd be very interested in Jason Kipnis right now, as his price is likely lower than it should be. (J.P. Breen)

Jeff,
Thanks for the chat.
Two questions.
First, who's getting called up next?
Second, who are we not talking about that we should be?(Number27 from Milwaukee, WI)

I was as surprised as anybody that George Springer got called up when he did, though I'd guess it means that they're closer to a contract extension than either side is letting on. I just don't see the Astros giving up the service time like that for the sake of about one win between now and June in what will be another losing season. I'm thrilled he's up, but it doesn't make much sense.

How do you rank the following OFers for ROS?: Leonys Martin, George Springer, Nori Aoki. Springer has the talent, Aoki has the experience, and Leonys might have a bit of both. Your thoughts?(Frank from Frank's House)

Man, that's a random group of guys. Springer will put up the best fantasy numbers, if that's what you're asking. He's going to be a fantasy stud if you're in traditional leagues that don't care about strikeouts. He's going to hit home runs, steal bases, all the good stuff. Then Aoki then Martin. (Jeff Moore)

When will George Springer become fantasy relevant (10-12 team standard mix leagues) and does he have top 30 OF potential in 2015? (Daniel from Australia)

Hi Daniel:

He'll be fantasy relevant this year as soon as he gets called up, which I think will be in May or June (I'm assuming June, since I'm guessing it will be tied to service time). He has the potential to get to the top 30, but this assumes that the batting average comes north along with the steals and power. So my guess is that he won't get there in 2015 but that he'll be close. (Mike Gianella)

Hi Ronit, Hope your having a good day.
I was recently offered this trade what are your thoughts. traded Nolan Arenado, Col 3B receive
George Springer,
Charlie Morton,I have no inside info on this guy Morton(OB1 from N.Y.C.)

Don't worry, you don't need it. I'd rather have Springer than Arenado in fantasy to begin with. (Ronit Shah)

Who do you prefer in a dynasty league between George Springer and Yoenis Cespedes? I have Springer and have been offered Cespedes basically straight up for Springer. Can't decide whether or not to take it. Obviously Cespedes would be safer but Springer could be a monster even if he only hits .250. What do you think? Thanks!(treynay3 from Indy)

This is erring on the side of safety, but give me Cespedes. I don't think everyone really understands just how often Springer is going to strike out. (Ben Carsley)

Who do you prefer in a dynasty league between George Springer and Yoenis Cespedes? I have Springer and have been offered Cespedes basically straight up for him. Can't decide whether or not to take it. Obviously Cespedes would be safer but Springer could be a monster even if he only hits .250. What do you think? Thanks!(treynay3 from Purdue)

In a keeper league that I thought would last a long time, I'd probably trade Cespedes for a top-20 prospect center fielder who's four years younger and almost major-league ready. (Ben Lindbergh)

What is your prediction for when George Springer will be called up? There seems to be a lot of difference of opinion over whether he'll be an All Star or strike out too much. What do you think? (Frank from Houston)

Lotta Springer questions as well. I think he gets called up this year and will strike out so damn much. I think he avoids the Bret Jackson path but there's a lot of swing and miss in his game. (Mauricio Rubio)

Is George Springer going to get enough at bats to win AL Rookie of the Year? Who do you like for the award? (Frank from Houston)

Hi Frank:

My guess is Springer gets a mid-season call-up and would have to put up incredible numbers to win the award if that's the case. I'm terrible at these sorts of questions; I picked Aaron Hicks last year for BP's preseason projections. I'll go with Jackie Bradley just because I can see the playing time for him and think he'll be solid. (Mike Gianella)

Is George Springer going to get enough at bats to win AL Rookie of the Year? Who do you like for the award? (Frank from Houston)

Hi Frank:

My guess is Springer gets a mid-season call-up and would have to put up incredible numbers to win the award if that's the case. I'm terrible at these sorts of questions; I picked Aaron Hicks last year for BP's preseason projections. I'll go with Jackie Bradley just because I can see the playing time for him and think he'll be solid. (Mike Gianella)

Is George Springer going to get enough at bats to win AL Rookie of the Year? Who do you like for the award? (Frank from Houston)

Hi Frank:

My guess is Springer gets a mid-season call-up and would have to put up incredible numbers to win the award if that's the case. I'm terrible at these sorts of questions; I picked Aaron Hicks last year for BP's preseason projections. I'll go with Jackie Bradley just because I can see the playing time for him and think he'll be solid. (Mike Gianella)

16 team dynasty league. My current OF (3) is a combo of Leonys Martin, Wil Myers, BJ Upton, Nick Swisher, Mike Morse. Ive got an offer of George Springer for my Michael Wacha. Im up in the air on it as I think my rotation (Verlander, Teheran, Ian Kennedy, Chris Tillman, Jose Quintana and Ubaldo) can handle the loss but Im wondering how you see a deal like that shaking out long term? Springers hit tool worries me long term as I could see him being a .240 hitter which impacts his counting stats production as well. What do you see he and Wacha turning into?(dzemens from Adrian, MI)

I think I would make that deal in a dynasty. Springer's average might never be great, but his power/speed combo in fantasy is enticing and a Raul Mondesi type wouldn't surprise me. I like Wacha a lot, but I see him as more of a 2/3 type than an ace. Springer might not be a top real life hitter but he could be in fantasy because of the speed. I'd make the deal. (Mike Gianella)

In a 16 team h2h dynasty, my Michael Wacha for his George Springer? Ive got a solid rotation but my OF is counting on Swisher or BJ Upton as the third man right now so Im looking for help. What do you think of that dea?(dzemens from Adrian, MI)

I feel like I answered this one already, but I'd say yes to this deal. (Mike Gianella)

How much has George Springer's 2013 season changed how scouts view his abilities? Has last season changed the view at all about Springer's ability to improve awful swing-and-miss ratios?(ironcityguys from Pittsburgh)

I don't think it's changed much at all. He is still an aggressive two-strike swinger and that's going to result in a lot of strikeouts. I think what people have come around to is that it's not going to sink him as a prospect, which is why the view seems a bit rosier this time around. (Craig Goldstein)

Is George Springer going to be a legit 30/30 threat and a fantasy stud?(Fred from Georgia)

Hey Fred.

He could be. I see more of a 25/15 or 25/20 kind of guy here, which is still really, really good. It's really hard to predict 30/30 for any prospect. Power hitters don't run the way they used to in the 80s and 90s and teams are more likely to play a station to station game unless a hitter is an absolute burner. All that being said, I like Springer and think the talent is legit. (Mike Gianella)

I don't think there is anyone in the minor leagues better than Byron Buxton right now. He is incredible. I am a huge Frazier fan and have struggled with Springer going back to college. Right now I would take Springer just becaues he's done it throughout the minor leagues, but Frazier has the potential to be better. (Mark Anderson)

I'd like to hear your latest prediction for George Springer. Will he be an impact hitter in MLB? An All-Star?(Andy from Houston)

I think an impact hitter in MLB and potential for some All-Star caliber seasons. There will be strikeouts, he may hit .250-.260, but there will also be home runs, some walks, and some stolen bases with good defense in center field. The strikeout rate really worries a lot of scouts, but I think everybody agrees that he's, at the very least, an average everyday guy in CF with lots of people seeing him as plus. (Jason Cole)

Did you think that George Springer is the best power and speed combination prospect?(Jim Callis from Chicago)

I guess that ultimately depends on how playable that power ends up at the top level. Buxton may the best bet. Clint Frazier is a darkhorse, but will face utility questions, as well, until we see how the high effort swing plays against more advanced arms. (Nick Faleris on Draft Signing Day)

Who will be the top-3 prospects entering the 2014 season? (Jim from Cleveland)

Buxton, Lindor, and Archie Bradley. Taveras if he doesn't expire his eligibility will of course be there, too, but I suspect he'll expire it. My guy who wasn't in the top 10-15 of top 100s would be George Springer, but he also has the "if he doesn't use his eligibility" as he's raking Double-A and could get a call in August some time. (Paul Sporer)

I don't hide the fact that I'm a bit of a Springer skeptic. I think he's going to be a find Major League player but I don't believe he is a star in waiting. I think the swing-and-miss will get in the way of the hit tool development, and ultimately the power fully translating to MLB game action. (Mark Anderson)

George Springer's strikeouts numbers are pretty horrid. Getting him to understand circumstances which lead to certain approaches and pitchers progressions will be the key to him progressing on to the major league level, IMHO.. But, with that said, how scared should we be of his inability to lower them to this point?(Ben from Louisiana)

Definitely nervous. It's a really high rate, 60 in 210 plate appearances this year. But it's still a package of skills that I really like with that flaw. When he makes contact, it's still better contact than almost any hitter in the minors. (Zachary Levine)

George Springer hit a pair of bombs yesterday. What kinds of adjustments does he still need to make to be a consistent hitter at the next level?(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)

For Springer, the key is getting in reps against advanced pitching so that he can hone his pitch recognition skills. An aggressive approach is easily exploited at the higher levels, and he needs more on-the-job training to better understand the chess match between pitcher and hitter. The raw tools are there, but baseball requires a very unique cognitive skill-set to play the game at the highest level.

What "consensus"(top) prospects do you find yourself having doubts about? Or flip it, what guys do you love that most prospect prognosticators have doubts about?(Larry from Kansas City)

I've always harbored some doubts about the star potential of George Springer. I see the tools; I've seen them since college, but he's still very raw in the application of those tools. I think he'll be a big leaguer and probably a solid one, but I don't see the potential star that some see.

On the other side of things, I remain infatuated with Tyrell Jenkins. He's been among my top few Cardinals prospects for the last couple of years, despite many others seemingly holding off on him a bit. I love his potential and think he could develop into a beast. (Mark Anderson)

What kind of hitter do you expect George Springer to be, and how long until we see some fantasy impact.
Thanks.(Benji from STL)

Sporadic? Good pop, gets uphill, inconsistent in ability to adjust in-game. Should be more refined given place on developmental spectrum, so some concern that the "next step" isn't coming. High risk; potential for 20/20 kind of profile with average hit tool (like .270-.280 average). I would not expect a quick transition to MLB, so might be more valuable as a draft and trade kind of prospect, fantasy wise. (Nick Faleris)

What are your thoughts on Domingo Santana? Does he garner Top-100 consideration? In High-A this year, he performed at essentially the same offensive level as George Springer, but was 3 years younger. Obviously, not much as much speed or defensive value as Springer.(Adam from Houston)

I haven't started working on the top 100, but Santana has been getting positive reports all season, and I'm a big fan of the power potential. Lots to question as well, but he's made improvements and the raw juice in the bat is impressive. I'd take Santana over Springer. (Jason Parks)

George Springer was just promoted to AA. Against better competition, do you think he'll be able to cut down on his strikeouts to continue hitting well? What's his ceiling if he can't?(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)

The biggest variable for a young hitter is pitch recognition, especially as he climbs the minor league ladder and faces more advanced secondary stuff. A batter with patience is not the same as one with pitch recognition, as a player like Springer or Brett Jackson can run up tons of walks and K's by virtue of deep counts, which can be deceiving when looking at the statistical profile. Springer could be a fantastic all-around ballplayer if he makes the necessary adjustments. (Doug Thorburn)

This is a toughy, and I'm glad the question was submitted prior to the chat because it gave me plenty of time to go back and forth on my answer. I'd probably take DeShields in a dynasty league due to his category dominance (75 SB) and position. He's also younger than Springer. Both have some serious boom/bust potential, but I'd gamble on DeShields. Trailing both, but interesting in his own right, is Springer's teammate Domingo Santana. His power comes at a cost, but not the worst dynasty stash option in his own right. (Josh Shepardson)