Gray And Growing Grayer: The Elderly And Florida

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February 14, 2000|By David R. Colburn, Special to The Sentinel

Customarily a place of youth and beauty, Florida has more recently become a state for retiring and growing old.

It is a sea change in the way the nation views Florida and in the way Florida sees itself. Historian Gary Mormino notes, No society had ever confronted or conceived a future in which a large part of its population lived for two or more decades after they stopped working.''

This demographic development and its ramifications for Florida in the 21st century were the subject of this year's annual meeting of the Reubin Askew Institute, which explores issues of statewide significance, at the University of Florida earlier this month.

The development of a large and dynamic senior population has been unfolding rapidly in Florida during the past 30 years. Seniors represented only 6.9 percent of Florida's population in 1940. Four decades later, that figure was 17.3 percent. By 1990, 10 of 11 of the nation's most-senior counties and 15 of the top 19 could be found in Florida. The state's retirees now are more than 18 percent of the population, or nearly 2.9 million people, and, by itself, this population is larger than that of 17 states.

Seniors exercise enormous political muscle in Florida because they vote in much larger numbers than do other constituent groups. The U.S. Census Bureau and Division of Elections found that, in the 1998 elections, seniors made up 18 percent of the state's population, 24 percent of the voting-age population and 27 percent of the state's registered voters.

Last year, Florida had the second-oldest population in the nation, behind West Virginia. And the Sunshine State will see its senior population expand significantly after 2010, with the retirement of the baby-boom generation. The so-called baby boomers, the children of the World War II generation who were born between 1946 and 1964, have been moving through American society like the proverbial pig through a python. As the nation enters the new millennium, they are fast approaching retirement. Indeed, there is a baby boomer turning 50 every seven seconds in this country.

By 2025, as many as 22 of the state's 67 counties are expected to have senior populations of 30 percent or more. And the number of senior citizens -- those older than 65 -- is expected to be 5.4 million people, or 26.3 percent of the population. Florida will be the oldest state in the nation; by contrast Alaska will be the youngest, with only 10 percent of its population being older than 65.

By any measure, this group of seniors will be the single most influential group in the state. At the local level, these seniors will have the ability to decide most elections. Moreover, in statewide campaigns in non-presidential elections, seniors in 2025 could well determine the outcomes by themselves. There seems little question that they will shape the political agenda and the platforms of political candidates at all levels of government.

The social and economic demographics paint a generally positive picture for the next generation of Florida's senior citizens. With some exceptions, the baby-boom seniors are much better off financially as they approach their retirement years than their parents were. A generally strong economy and a booming stock market have strengthened their investments and retirement portfolios.

There is every indication, then, that the baby boomers in 2025 will be more financially secure and more active than any preceding it. Their wealth will be an asset to Florida. Although some experts argue that seniors are a drain on the state economy, recent studies dispute that. Between 1985 and 1990, for example, seniors transferred $8 billion in assets to Florida and transferred only $1.8 billion out of the state.

The continued expansion of this group also has significant implications for public policy, especially in the areas of health care, transportation, the workplace and social programs.

In health care alone, for example, the leading causes of death in Florida are closely related to the age of its population: Heart disease tops the list at 31.5 percent of all deaths, followed by cancer at 24 percent and cerebra-vascular diseases at 6 percent. Current statistics indicate that seniors live generally healthy lives until age 75, at which point physical disabilities begin to occur.

Nevertheless, longevity for seniors will continue to improve with advances in health care, diet and physical exercise. One of the largest increases among seniors in Florida, for example, has been among those who are 85 and older. That trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st century.

As Florida enters a new century, the evidence suggests that it will continue to struggle mightily with the dynamics of population growth and change. Seniors will be in a unique position to determine the political direction of the state, but Florida also will be faced with a higher proportion of both African-Americans and Hispanics as well as younger citizens who will want to see the state addressing their needs.

The 200 participants at the Askew Institute recommended that the governor and state legislative leaders take the lead in helping citizens of all ages understand these developments and their consequences for the state and in seeking constructive answers to them. Askew participants also proposed that historical notions of aging be reconsidered and that intergenerational connections be promoted at all levels of society to increase understanding and promote communication between elders and others citizens.