Monday, 26 November 2012

GW14 Select XI

Here we go again. My select XI for GW14 containing all the usual subjects and a couple of new faces. As always the team was selected to optimise the team's underlying statistical data (e.g. shots, shots on target, etc) based on team's form, fixture, and player's modelled performance.I don't include goalkeepers in the model but Southampton's defence came out as next best after United's and Stoke's so the well named Gazzinga gets the pick in nets. Southampton's home defence is actually better than average from the shots on target data, it's just they took a bit of a hammering early on. Filling up the rest of the defensive line up are Evans, Huth and Kolarov. Evra and Rafael were actually ahead of all three in this team but funds would not allow it.Hazard and Mata are pretty much neck and neck in my projection model, if one of them has a good game they edge ahead. Hazard has gradually got his nose in front of late and is my number one midfield pick for GW14, just shading it over Michu. Ramirez should have a good chance to add to his recent tally against Newcastle and the return of Fellaini from suspension see's him claim the final midfield spot. Up front of course it's Van Persie, who gets the armband too. The Dutchman managed 5 shots, 4 in the box against QPR but just the one on target. He'll do better next time (won't he?). Aguero is the number two choice forward this week whilst Benteke's performances have seen him promising quite a bit of late and this could be great game for him to raise his profil.

That bad. My model does not yet account for a sudden upturn in form though, and uses season averages, and certianly does not account for a new manager. Still, I'm expecting a low but not too shoddy 3.6 SoT for Sunderland, so let's say 4, and 1 or 2 goals max, probably 1. For defense, a bit surprised there's no SUN there, but hey.