Election Highlights

A few months ago, everyone predicted the GOP would win a majority in the Senate. Instead, the unthinkable happened and Dems actually gained in the Senate. They also gained around ten seats in the House.

Gay marriage has been on various state ballots 33 times, and always lost. Until now. Last night four states approved gay marriage. And Tammy Baldwin became the first openly gay senator ever elected.

Two states legalized marijuana.

New Hampshire now has women in all their House and Senate positions, plus as their governor.

And the presidential election wasn’t as close as predicted. The GOP bet everything, including insane amounts of money, on Romney and lost. You can’t buy everything.

All in all, it was a great night for progressives.

I predict that Congress will pass immigration reform in the next four years, and probably before the next midterm elections. The Latino vote really hurt the GOP and they know it.

This was written by Iron Knee. Posted on Wednesday, November 7, 2012, at 5:52 am. Filed under Irony. Tagged Elections. Bookmark the permalink. Follow comments here with the RSS feed. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

15 Comments

Dan wrote:

Akin and Mourdock didn’t make it. Allan West lost, as did Scott Brown.

Is it possible that the Tea Party, as a block force, was a flash in the pan?

In my state I’m proud to say we voted for same sex marriage and a state level Dream act. I supported both these measures but was dissapointed that expanded gambling also got approved although I voted against it. And yes, I did my small part and convinced my wife to vote for Obama.
Now that the rhetoric is over I sincerely hope that the President, Senate and House along with the media can all come together and resolve many of the big issues facing this country. We have challenges that require real leadership and choices to make as a nation and they are not easy.
I think after this election we have to throw out the notion that presidencies can be bought or senate seats for that matter. The American people are too smart and too careful in their decisions. All the fretting about corruption from money is behind us. Perhaps we can be thankful that it in some small way was a plus for the economy.
Now lets roll up our sleeves, reach across the aisles and shake the hands of our fellow americans and let them know we are all in this together. I think Gov Christie and Pres Obama went a long way in starting that idea. We should follow their lead.

This morning, as the celebrations, heavy drinking, hand wringing and back slapping continues, some very clear points have emerged from the election results. Whatever party you support, whatever you think this country could and should do, you have to accept and deal with these points:

1) Math is important.

The actual election results map almost exactly to what the best mathematical model (FiveThirtyEight) predicted. As one of my favorite sayings goes, “Reality is the point at which the ship of possible dreams runs aground on the rocks of statistical probability.” Anyone that says “the numbers don’t matter” is just WRONG.

2) If you spit in the faces of women, you are going to get your gonads crushed.

ALL of the Republican candidates that made stupid comments about rape went from leading their races to defeat. They GUARANTEED Democrats would expand their hold on the Senate. And women are a savvy bunch and they show up to vote too.

3) The demographic tide is dooming the current Republican party.

The Republican base is angry old white men. And every year, their are fewer of them. In every OTHER demographic – blacks, Hispanics, immigrants, women, young people, LGBT, etc. Democrats have a huge advantage – and those groups are GROWING while the white men group is SHRINKING. If Republicans don’t adapt to this they will continue to be marginalized over time.

4) Money influences elections but money can’t buy them – people matter more than dollars.

It is a truism in Washington that the best funded campaign wins 94% of the time – except in this election. With the gloves off and the checkbooks of the wealthy and business freed from constraint, this was by far the most expensive election in history. And the Republicans out-raised and outspent the Democrats in every Senate race, and in the Presidential race – and they got their asses handed to them. It turns out the better predictor of success is not how much money you raised, but how MUCH of that money came from small donors ($200 or less).

5) The Supreme Court is likely to shift left and stay that way for a long, long time.

Some liberal judges will retire and be replaced by Obama picks – but it is expected that at least one, and as many as three, of the Court’s conservatives will also leave in the next four years. Perhaps Scalia and Kennedy will try to hold on and pray for a Republican President in 2016 – but they will be over 80 by then and Scalia is not in the best of health as it is. And if the Court balances shifts left, then the extreme social conservative agenda will be thwarted for decades (thank goodness).

6) Reality has a moderate bias.

Many Teapublicans are saying today Mitt Romney lost because “he wasn’t conservative enough.” Poppycock. Mitt Romney lost because their aren’t enough angry old white men, and the more conservative he got (during the primaries) the more he lost the support of all the other demographics. Virtually all of the “extreme conservative” candidates got whacked, and the ones that survived did so only thanks to gerrymandering. If the 2016 ticket leader for the Republicans is a moderate with a brain, or at least widely perceived that way (Huntsman, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie) they have a chance as the Democratic field may be weak (Really, who would vote for Joe Biden as President?). But if they field another wave of right wing loony toons like Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich and Cain, it may be 2024 before they have another shot at the White House.

We need better choices. We need more flexibility. I dislike Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid as much as I dislike Mitch McConnell and Mitt Romney. We have two years, starting NOW, to try and create some better choices so I IMPLORE all of you to stay politically engaged and support creative alternatives like No Labels, the Coffee Party, the National Popular Vote initiative, campaign finance reform, and anything else that will give us better options in the next cycle. And don’t wait – or it will be too late, again.

Arthanyel–With regard to #6, Lindsey Graham said (and forgive me if I’m repeating something already posted here),”If we lose this election there is only one explanation — demographics. If I hear anybody say it was because Romney wasn’t conservative enough, I’m going to go nuts. We’re not losing 95 percent of African-Americans and two-thirds of Hispanics and voters under 30 because we’re not being hard-ass enough.”