February 19, 2018

Earliest Alert: Monday Edition

I will get more into the colder talk of things with the video today. Main focus will be on the potential impacts from river flooding that are still on the table over the next 4-7 days.

There are many impacts to be handled this week.

WIND:Gusts around 20-25 mph will be common this morning and up to 30 mph this afternoon. Especially if we get some sun breaks.It will remain breezy tonight.Gusts of 30-36 mph will be possible Tuesday that will likely remain elevated into Tuesday night/early Wednesday. There will be a pre-frontal band of wind overnight that could allow for higher gusts.

TEMPERATURES:A record high is forecast today with the current 74° standing for this date at risk of falling.A record "warm low" is possible if we stay above 55° after midnight tonight through midnight Tuesday night. Which is looking likely.A record high is forecast for Tuesday with the current 76° at risk of falling. In fact, we may push the limits of Feb's all-time high of 81° marked just LAST year!

RAINFALL:Amounts will be spotty/light today. But once we move into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday into Wednesday night...rainfall amounts of 1-2" look reachable along/west of I-65 and lower amounts to the east. This will aggravated the river flooding for some of the basins.

RIVER FLOODING:While the Wednesday rainfall will add to this potential, it will be the repeated waves of rain Thursday PM through the weekend that will be most concerning. Each wave will have a slightly altered track to it as it passes through. Having said that, there remains potential for some locations to get slammed with each one of these. That risk looks greater for areas roughly north/west of a Grayson County to Henry County line. Amounts in excess of 3" would become likely in that zone with 5-6" totals reachable. Flooding Warnings are already out for several of our rivers so be sure to monitor the latest changes as we get a handle on the rainfall and its runoff into the rivers. Impacts for Downtown Louisville/Waterfront are already being felt and those will continue to grow as the week wears on.

I have't added severe thunderstorms to this list yet, but there could be some potential with the late week stuff if instability is realized. Still need more time to evaluate that potential.