Are we ready for the boomer tsunami?

John and Bernice Klassen moved from the suburbs to a downtown condo, but their choice is not for everyone and some are not happy with the downsizing options currently available.

Photograph by: Jean Levac
, The Ottawa Citizen

John and Bernice Klassen are stumped when asked what they miss about suburban Ottawa.

Six years ago, they sold their four-bedroom house in Nepean and moved to a low-rise condo building not far from Elgin Street. They were like a lot of baby boomers: fed up with maintaining a house that was too big for their needs.

"It was also a question of lifestyle," says John, 63, and now retired from Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada. "There, you had to get in the car just to buy a litre of milk. Here, everything's within walking distance: the National Arts Centre, the ByWard Market."

"The transition was so easy, we've never looked back," says Bernice, also 63, and a retired college teacher. "We both wanted to move downtown and we said: 'It's either now or we won't be able to afford it.' "

The Klassens, after a lifetime of working hard, likely needn't worry about housing. They have pensions, savings and a comfortable home. Down the road, they can sell the condo and transition into even smaller digs where, if they choose, they can pay for meals and other aging-at-home support services.

But there are many who should worry, warns John Herbert, executive director of the Greater Ottawa Home Builders' Association. "I think we're heading for a huge (housing) crisis 10 to 15 years down the road."

The reasons: Everything from the high cost of renovating existing housing stock to make it suitable for aging to the insufficient supply and high price of new accommodation for seniors.

"Builders won't build unless they can sell and make a profit," says Herbert. "They're like bankers - they don't take risks and they're not interested in experimenting with new housing forms." Government won't assist builders to start thinking outside the box, he adds, referring to the piecemeal approach to housing policy in Canada.

"It's a smouldering thing right now because (boomers) are still working, but the aging population is going to be falling through the cracks."

He may be right.

Baby boomers, the huge cohort born between 1946 and 1964, have influenced everything from the entertainment industry to the pace of house construction as they have moved through their adult years.

Now, the boomers are becoming seniors, swelling the country's grey-haired population to new heights. In 2011, 14.8 per cent of Canadians were 65 or older, according to the latest census figures released by Statistics Canada last week. That's almost double the eight per cent in 1971 who were 65 or older. Within two decades, they'll be pushing 23 per cent.

It's not surprising that a study last year by the Conference Board of Canada predicted that by 2030 about 80 per cent of the demand for new housing will come from seniors. And most won't be looking for a sprawling, two-storey suburban home with little access to shopping, medical care or social activities.

In fact, many of our current homes - with stairs that challenge arthritic knees, doorways too narrow for wheelchairs and heating, tax and maintenance bills that strain fixed incomes - will prove impractical.

Worse, many suburbs are not amenable to the needs of older people, notes Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. in its 2008 study Impacts of the Aging of the Canadian Population on Housing and Communities. Although cities such as Ottawa are forcing increased density, in part by including multi-family dwellings in subdivisions, the 'burbs are still low-density places built for cars and lack the easily accessible social and other services seniors need.

CMHC notes that older suburbs, like Lincoln Heights, built close to city centres and emerging areas of commercial and other activity, may offer the services that newer developments lack. However, while most Ottawa seniors currently live in older areas such as Bay and College wards, those in their 40s and 50s - the huge middle and tail end of boomerdom - live in less age-friendly spots such as Orléans and Rideau-Goulbourn. That's according to A Portrait of Ottawa Older Adults: Demo-graphic and Socio-Economic Characteristics, a report released in 2011 as part of the City of Ottawa's Older Adult Plan project.

Boomers could end up moving into the older suburbs as their aging occupants leave for other quarters. That, in turn, points out CMHC, could help revitalize older neighbourhoods. But for boomers, that would likely mean taking on homes needing expensive upgrades, not an appealing prospect for most.

Besides, the older we get, the less transient we become, say the experts.

Some builders are responding with specialized communities. The Legends at eQuinelle in Kemptville, for example, is a neighbourhood of adult-lifestyle bungalows and low-rise condos in a golf-course setting. Built by eQ Homes, it offers open-concept bungalows - better than older homes for walkers and wheelchairs - that come with a maintenance package of grass cut-ting, snow removal and twice-yearly window washing.

But a home in an outlying area isn't for every boomer.

Carl and Lorna Raskin, both in their mid-60s and still in a two-storey single in Barrhaven with a basement laundry room and other increasingly bothersome features, have been testing the housing market. They don't plan to move for five years, but are already anxious about the limited options.

"We're caught between a rock and a hard place," says Carl, a retired civil servant. "We're middleclass people and the price of bungalows is out of sight." In Ottawa, new bungalows average $480,000, according to PMA Brethour Realty Group. During the first five months of 2012, resale bungalows averaged $350,374, according to the Ottawa Real Estate Board.

The couple has looked at condos, but the ones that meet their requirements would cost $12,000 a year or more in condo fees and taxes alone. Their current home is 41 years old and, they fear, wouldn't fetch enough to let them make an even trade, let alone do the travelling they feel is among the privileges of retirement.

They could get something less expensive out of town, but with their family and friends in Ottawa, driving is a deterrent. Like most Canadians, they want to age in-side their own community.

"We'll probably end up renting," says Lorna resignedly.

The situation is already much more threatening for those without good pensions or other financial resources.

CARP (originally the Canadian Association of Retired Persons; now billed as A New Vision of Aging for Canada) makes that clear in its recent report, A New Vision for Aging at Home. It references CMHC figures showing the cost of seniors' housing in Canada is $1,909 a month for an average, market-priced bachelor suite or room that includes light care such as at least one meal a day.

The median annual income of a single Canadian senior, CARP reports, is $20,800. That's a shortfall of $3,000 a year on rent and light care alone.

The average annual cost in a private facility providing heavier care is $42,360.

In Ottawa, according to A Portrait of Ottawa Older Adults, 6.8 per cent of seniors were considered low income in 2006. Low income is defined as an after-tax in-come of $21,384 for a family of two and $17,570 for someone on their own. In Canada, seven per cent of seniors are in the low-income bracket. However, in Ottawa, the proportion of low-income seniors jumps to more than 18 per cent for singles. That's because it's not that much more ex-pensive for two people to live than one.

Although men are catching up, women still outlive them. That can leave elderly women in a vulnerable position when it comes to housing.

Ottawa Community Housing does offer subsidized housing to about 95 per cent of the 3,400 households in its 21 seniors-only buildings. About two-thirds of those households are headed by women. There are another 1,600 units headed by seniors in mixed-demographic buildings. OCH de-fines "senior" as being 60 and older and says the wait period for the seniors-only buildings is two to five years; the waiting period is longer for the non-restricted buildings.

"Seniors run into financial problems be-cause they didn't plan to live to be 90 or 100," says Christina O'Neil, executive director of Unitarian House, a not-for-profit residence for independent seniors off Richmond Road. "My message to politicians is: 'Recognize that affordability is an issue for seniors and in the future, it's going to be bigger.' "

Interwoven with all this is a clogged public health system that's traditionally been poorly integrated with home support services for the elderly. That integration is slowly taking place and should lead to seniors remaining independent and healthy longer, easing the burden on health and other tax dollars.

"There's a lack of one-stop agencies for all services and you won't find an agency that provides all the services free of charge," says Margaret Dunn, chair of the City of Ottawa Seniors Advisory Committee, which assists the municipality and community in identifying and meeting the needs of seniors.

In fact, CMHC's annual national housing report released last December says the number of all seniors living in institutions will grow to almost 2.5 times the current level. That's a lot of new buildings.

Yet for most boomers, housing worries are over the horizon.

Heather Jamieson and her husband, Jean Haché, have been in their 2,100-square-foot Orléans single since 1990.

At 72, Haché is not a boomer, but 59-year-old Jamieson is.

"As long as we can continue looking after things here, we wouldn't even consider moving," says Haché, who, like his wife, is retired.

"Our friends who are the same age as us have only moved if there was a death or a divorce," says Jamieson.

While they are well-organized and for-ward-thinking in most other respects, they have not looked into alternative housing should one of them abruptly begin to de-cline or researched what they can do - adding grab bars in the bathroom, looking at other kitchen configurations - to make their home more suitable for aging at home.

"Life can change in a heartbeat, but I don't think you have to always have a Plan B. You handle what comes along," says Jamieson.

They're hardly alone in not being prepped for inevitable aging. A nation-al survey commissioned by the Association for Canadian Studies and recently re-ported in the Citizen found that only 38 per cent of those aged 65 and over were "worried" or "somewhat worried" about growing older. That compared to 56 per cent in the 18 to 24 age group.

Having come of age in relatively prosperous and secure times, maybe boomers are just indelibly optimistic.

However, cautions Dunn of the Seniors' Advisory Committee: "What I hear from seniors is that when a crisis hits, things fall apart because the anticipation hasn't happened and the knowledge (of where to seek help) isn't there."

If there's no family nearby - an increasingly common occurrence in a transient society where seniors are less likely to live with their adult children than in earlier generations - "people get into a challenge."

Haché and Jamieson say that with condos springing up in Orléans, they could perhaps downsize with-out leaving their community. That would keep them in touch with their network, considered a key factor in maintaining health and happiness as we age.

Maybe there's not that much to agonize over anyway.

"For 20 years, we've been hearing about this crisis of boomers and housing, but aging happens at a glacial pace," says Ryan Berlin, a demographer with Urban Futures, a Vancouver-based research and consulting group that helps cities, provinces and developers plan for growth. "I always think the market will adjust to the demand. Developers will see it coming and there's lots of money to be made there. If we need apartments, we'll build apartments.

"The leading edge of the baby boomers is just now turning 66 and they're still very active. The typical baby boomer is still 45 or 50 and their housing needs won't change for an-other 15, 20 years."

There are signs some developers are responding to market forces.

Westhills, a 209-hectare development of condos, townhomes and single-family homes in Langford, B.C., includes secondary suites - independent, fully equipped units for elderly parents or other tenants - in most of its single-family homes.

In Ottawa, meanwhile, Courtyard Developments is building Hyde Park in Richmond, a mix of bungalows, suites and apartments for those aged 55 and above where residents will be able to access meal plans and even on-site medical care. The idea is that not only can you remain in your community as you age, you can stay in your unit.

While such developments are still rare and often too expensive for those of limited means, they are a step toward meeting the need for a range of seniors' housing options.

GLOSSARY

Active adult-lifestyle community: A seniors' community where residents live independently, usually with access to golf, hiking and the like.

Aging in place (or aging at home): Growing old in one's own home or community as opposed to moving to a nursing home or other facility.

Assisted living: For people who require regular meal preparation, transportation and other services, but not the full-time care of a nursing home.

Continuum of care: Care provided in a community where services/housing range from independent and assisted living to total nursing care.

Independent living: Residents, whether in their own home or a facility, can take care of themselves. They may take advantage of meal or other services but aren't dependent on them.

Nursing home: A facility for people, especially older people, with a chronic illness or disability; also called a long-term care facility. Services can include assistance with personal hygiene and other daily activities.

Retirement community: A community where older residents live independently in single homes or other units, but are not responsible for exterior maintenance like lawn cutting.

Retirement home: A facility consisting of individual rooms or suites, but where meals and other activities are in common.

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