000
FXUS64 KFWD 091703
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1103 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016
.UPDATE...
Visible satellite imagery shows some decrease in cloud cover over
the last hour primarily south of Interstate 20. Very weak
isentropic ascent continues this morning but will diminish a bit
through the afternoon. The morning sounding shows that the
moisture responsible for the cloud cover is only about 50mb deep
so as this ascent weakens...clouds should begin to thin out a bit.
Some areas will become mostly sunny by afternoon while others will
have lingering cloud cover. Temperatures will be affected strongly
by cloud cover but most areas should warm into the lower 40s by
late afternoon. Only made some minor tweaks to hourly temperatures
through mid afternoon and adjusted cloud cover a bit.
Otherwise...no significant changes are needed at this time.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 518 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/
/12Z TAFs/
VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF period but SCT-
BKN clouds with bases around 7000 feet this morning will gradually
lower through the period. A surge of low-level moisture on
Saturday is expected to bring MVFR cigs into the region tomorrow
afternoon. North winds at the start of the TAF period will
eventually become southeasterly this afternoon as the surface high
continues moving east.
Just beyond the next 24-30 hours, MVFR and IFR cigs are expected
Saturday night into Sunday morning with chances for drizzle and/or
light rain.
JLDunn
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/
It`s definitely a cold morning out there now as a strong 1040 mb
arctic anticyclone is settling in just to our northeast, although
perhaps not quite as bone chilling as we were anticipating a few
days ago. Temperatures this hour are generally running in the
lower 20s to near 30 degrees with a light northerly breeze
resulting in wind chills in the teens for many. Expansive low-
level cloudiness is spreading eastward this hour, and will likely
envelop most of our region today as residual moisture in the
850-750 mb layer is resupplied by increasing southwesterly flow
aloft. Given the potential for this cloud cover today, sided with
the cooler temperature guidance and even knocked a degree or two
off of that. Thankfully, wind speeds will be greatly diminished
from what we experienced yesterday.
High pressure slides east of the region on Saturday, which will
result in the return of southerly/southwesterly low-level flow and
swiftly increasing moisture. By Saturday evening, forecast
soundings reveal a saturated, or a near-saturated airmass in the
lowest 5000 feet or so, with very dry air above. This should set
the stage for the development of drizzle/light rain showers across
a good chunk of the CWA Saturday night. That said, the likelihood
of measurable precip looks pretty low at this time, and will cap
PoPs at 30 percent during this time frame. As a shortwave and
associated cold front approach the region on Sunday, shower
chances should steadily push east of the I-35 corridor before
chances come to an end Sunday evening. As all of the saturated air
seems to be relegated below 850 mb and well above 0C, the
potential for thunder appears very low at this time, and have left
it out of the worded forecast on Sunday afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will filter into the region on Monday behind
this aformentioned front resulting in a nice, seasonable start to
the work week. The moderating temperatures will be short-lived,
however, as yet another arctic airmass will be intruding into the
northern CONUS on Tuesday. The leading edge of this rejuvenated
cold airmass should move through North and Central Texas somewhere
during the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning time frame, but
substantial model spread and run-to-run consistency issues are
plaguing this portion of the forecast. The GFS, which has
struggled mightily over the past few days with the timing of this
arctic front has largely been ignored in this forecast package
given its very tardy frontal timing on Wednesday afternoon.
Instead, a blend of the notably faster 09/00Z ECMWF and GFS
Ensemble mean seems more reasonable, and matches up a bit better
with the 09/00Z Canadian as well. Moisture profiles look very
meager during the frontal passage, and as a result, we`ve
maintained the dry forecast during the middle of the week.
Temperatures behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday should not
be quite as cold as what we experienced this week, but will
nonetheless be about 10 to 15 degrees below average. As the cold
high pressure center migrates east of the region on Friday, return
flow and an approaching disturbance may bring about renewed
chances of showers towards the end of the week.
Carlaw
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 31 51 47 70 / 0 0 5 20 10
Waco 43 31 50 48 70 / 0 0 10 20 10
Paris 41 27 48 44 65 / 0 0 5 30 40
Denton 41 28 50 46 70 / 0 0 5 20 10
McKinney 42 28 49 45 68 / 0 0 5 30 20
Dallas 43 32 50 48 70 / 0 0 5 30 20
Terrell 42 29 49 47 68 / 0 0 10 30 30
Corsicana 43 32 50 48 68 / 0 0 10 30 20
Temple 42 31 50 48 69 / 0 0 10 30 10
Mineral Wells 41 28 53 47 71 / 0 0 5 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$