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The Fall of the Patriots

Yes, I know. "Every off-season, everyone talks abut how the Dolphins are gonna compete with the Patriots, and we never do...blah, blah, blah." Well, here's a slightly different take on this. It was inspired by the "Can the Dolphins compete with the Patriots and Broncos" thread, but I think it deserves a closer look. I did some digging on QB decline. If you want to look at where some of this info came from, it's here: http://forums.colts.com/topic/5234-t...great-nfl-qbs/

Those of you who are old enough to remember the 1998 season well might remember a game that Marino had against the Broncos in the playoffs. At the end of the game, Marino threw what was supposed to be a Hail Mary bomb downfield against the Broncos...only it went about 30 yards in a weak arc, and got picked off. There was a weird, awkward moment, when none of the announcers knew what to do or say. Because...Dan Marino didn't throw like that.

Dan Marino was 37. And all of a sudden, it hit me.

Holy crap. Dan Marino just got old.

He hung around one more year, and was done. The Dolphins have never been the same.

15 plus years later, the vaunted Patriots, with all of their genius, smart moves, villainy, and invincibility, are in a great deal of trouble without one specific person. That person isn't Bill Belichick. It's Tom Brady.

And Tom Brady is getting old. He'll be 37 before the 2014 season starts. QBs in general start a notable decline in performance at age 35.

Marino fell off at age 35. He was completely done by 38.
Montana fell off drastically after age 34. He was completely done by 38.
Troy Aikman fell off drastically at 34. He retired that year.
Terry Bradshaw was done at 35, after an injury.
Steve Young hung 'em up at 37.

Here's a list of QB who had a "very good or better" QB season after age 35: Peyton (last year), Moon (39 - did not play in the NFL until age 28), Elway (37), Warner (37, did not play in the NFL until age 28), and Favre (40). That's all of the very good seasons by QBs over the age of 35. Ever.

Tom Brady started falling off last year, and once the wheels come off, they do NOT go back on. Unless your name is Brett Favre - but that's a different discussion.

Instead, the falloff escalates very, very quickly. I noticed it last year, when Brady started having problems with his accuracy on out and go routes. Then, in the playoffs against Denver, there was a moment. It was a moment similar to 1998 for Dolphins fans. Tom Brady missed a receiver at the end of the first half. And it wasn't close. It was a who the heck threw THAT ball? moment. And then there it was...that awkward silence, when none of the announcers really knew what to say.

And up in New England, millions of Patriots fans realized it. Holy crap. Tom Brady just got old.

And much like the Dolphins in 1999, the Patriots aren't ready. Their current backup is a thoroughly immobile QB who has as many interceptions as completions in the NFL.

The fall is coming.

"If foot fetish videos of your wife surface online, and the voice of the cameraman sounds like you, just admit that it was you ... because the alternative is that someone else was filming foot fetish videos of your wife, and I'm pretty sure that's worse." - Bill Simmons's enduring lesson to Rex Ryan.

Here's where I differ: It has been and always will be the Miami Dolphins job to escort that guy out of the NFL forever! I thought that maybe Jason Taylor would break him - then I thought Wake would do it - but until its done its not done... So do not expect him to leave without a Dolphin player planting him into the dirt and the whole stadium takes a gasp as we all patiently wait for the cart to come on the field and scoop him up and get him out of our collective misery.

2. You left Jim Plunkett off that list!

Originally Posted by The Goat

Yes, I know. "Every off-season, everyone talks abut how the Dolphins are gonna compete with the Patriots, and we never do...blah, blah, blah." Well, here's a slightly different take on this. It was inspired by the "Can the Dolphins compete with the Patriots and Broncos" thread, but I think it deserves a closer look. I did some digging on QB decline. If you want to look at where some of this info came from, it's here: http://forums.colts.com/topic/5234-t...great-nfl-qbs/

Those of you who are old enough to remember the 1998 season well might remember a game that Marino had against the Broncos in the playoffs. At the end of the game, Marino threw what was supposed to be a Hail Mary bomb downfield against the Broncos...only it went about 30 yards in a weak arc, and got picked off. There was a weird, awkward moment, when none of the announcers knew what to do or say. Because...Dan Marino didn't throw like that.

Dan Marino was 37. And all of a sudden, it hit me.

Holy crap. Dan Marino just got old.

He hung around one more year, and was done. The Dolphins have never been the same.

15 plus years later, the vaunted Patriots, with all of their genius, smart moves, villainy, and invincibility, are in a great deal of trouble without one specific person. That person isn't Bill Belichick. It's Tom Brady.

And Tom Brady is getting old. He'll be 37 before the 2014 season starts. QBs in general start a notable decline in performance at age 35.

Marino fell off at age 35. He was completely done by 38.
Montana fell off drastically after age 34. He was completely done by 38.
Troy Aikman fell off drastically at 34. He retired that year.
Terry Bradshaw was done at 35, after an injury.
Steve Young hung 'em up at 37.

Here's a list of QB who had a "very good or better" QB season after age 35: Peyton (last year), Moon (39 - did not play in the NFL until age 28), Elway (37), Warner (37, did not play in the NFL until age 28), and Favre (40). That's all of the very good seasons by QBs over the age of 35. Ever.

Tom Brady started falling off last year, and once the wheels come off, they do NOT go back on. Unless your name is Brett Favre - but that's a different discussion.

Instead, the falloff escalates very, very quickly. I noticed it last year, when Brady started having problems with his accuracy on out and go routes. Then, in the playoffs against Denver, there was a moment. It was a moment similar to 1998 for Dolphins fans. Tom Brady missed a receiver at the end of the first half. And it wasn't close. It was a who the heck threw THAT ball? moment. And then there it was...that awkward silence, when none of the announcers really knew what to say.

And up in New England, millions of Patriots fans realized it. Holy crap. Tom Brady just got old.

And much like the Dolphins in 1999, the Patriots aren't ready. Their current backup is a thoroughly immobile QB who has as many interceptions as completions in the NFL.

You can't out run time, the Pats moves suggest they know this as well. They, like Denver, know that clock is short. It might be one year or maybe two but it is going to happen, Brady and Manning will decline into a shadow of their former selves.

I feel that both of these QB's want to be like Elway and win and retire on top. Neither of these guys want to go out with a losing season or being bounced from the playoffs, if I had to stake money however on which QB has the better shot at winning a Super Bowl and riding off, I'd bet Brady even though I can't stand the guy. He has just be healthier and hasn't taken the amount of abuse Manning has. Marino wasn't the same after his achilles injury and even he himself has gone on record and said that.

I hope Brady declines this season but to be honest I'd rather Miami beat the man when he was playing at his best if they can manage it, no body wants to win just because someone has to by default.

Watch his games last year and you'll be know why this is dead wrong. He was great around 30ish but watch his games last year. Sure he didn't have great receivers but some of those balls he threw were just straight off. Passes that Brady used to make in his sleep were completely overthrown. He had a very average season this year and I don't think he'll get any better. A body can only handle so much before it starts giving up. There's a reason why players don't play into their 40's. I don't expect Brady to be awful but his days of being a top 5 qb are far over with.

Yes. I agree he's getting old. But in today's NFL, he can survive a little longer. But I've saying it longer than last year that Brady has lost some skills. Or sure. He can give you a wonderful game every once in awhile but he will stink up the joint more. Happens to everyone.

Yes, I know. "Every off-season, everyone talks abut how the Dolphins are gonna compete with the Patriots, and we never do...blah, blah, blah." Well, here's a slightly different take on this. It was inspired by the "Can the Dolphins compete with the Patriots and Broncos" thread, but I think it deserves a closer look. I did some digging on QB decline. If you want to look at where some of this info came from, it's here: http://forums.colts.com/topic/5234-t...great-nfl-qbs/

Those of you who are old enough to remember the 1998 season well might remember a game that Marino had against the Broncos in the playoffs. At the end of the game, Marino threw what was supposed to be a Hail Mary bomb downfield against the Broncos...only it went about 30 yards in a weak arc, and got picked off. There was a weird, awkward moment, when none of the announcers knew what to do or say. Because...Dan Marino didn't throw like that.

Dan Marino was 37. And all of a sudden, it hit me.

Holy crap. Dan Marino just got old.

He hung around one more year, and was done. The Dolphins have never been the same.

15 plus years later, the vaunted Patriots, with all of their genius, smart moves, villainy, and invincibility, are in a great deal of trouble without one specific person. That person isn't Bill Belichick. It's Tom Brady.

And Tom Brady is getting old. He'll be 37 before the 2014 season starts. QBs in general start a notable decline in performance at age 35.

Marino fell off at age 35. He was completely done by 38.
Montana fell off drastically after age 34. He was completely done by 38.
Troy Aikman fell off drastically at 34. He retired that year.
Terry Bradshaw was done at 35, after an injury.
Steve Young hung 'em up at 37.

Here's a list of QB who had a "very good or better" QB season after age 35: Peyton (last year), Moon (39 - did not play in the NFL until age 28), Elway (37), Warner (37, did not play in the NFL until age 28), and Favre (40). That's all of the very good seasons by QBs over the age of 35. Ever.

Tom Brady started falling off last year, and once the wheels come off, they do NOT go back on. Unless your name is Brett Favre - but that's a different discussion.

Instead, the falloff escalates very, very quickly. I noticed it last year, when Brady started having problems with his accuracy on out and go routes. Then, in the playoffs against Denver, there was a moment. It was a moment similar to 1998 for Dolphins fans. Tom Brady missed a receiver at the end of the first half. And it wasn't close. It was a who the heck threw THAT ball? moment. And then there it was...that awkward silence, when none of the announcers really knew what to say.

And up in New England, millions of Patriots fans realized it. Holy crap. Tom Brady just got old.

And much like the Dolphins in 1999, the Patriots aren't ready. Their current backup is a thoroughly immobile QB who has as many interceptions as completions in the NFL.

The fall is coming.

Hope that you're right. Brady still looked pretty good in many games last year. We were on top all over the field in the Foxboro game until he took control in the 3rd quarter when some decisions went their way. His leadership skills are still pretty amazing. BTW, you know he still expects to still be playing in 5 years time. (He doesn't joke).