In brief

The left-wing president, Lenín Moreno, of Alianza País (AP), will focus on fiscal consolidation and market-friendly policies. After supporters of former president and AP founder, Rafael Correa (2007-2017), defected, Mr Moreno governs with aid from part of the opposition on an issue-by-issue basis. We assume that IMF assistance will be forthcoming in 2019-21, strengthening fiscal adjustment efforts. Economic growth will remain weak in 2019, stymied by fiscal adjustment and subdued oil prices.