Keywords

Short-term load forecasting, Kalman filter, municipal
load.

Abstract

The paper relies on the investigation of interconnection
topic within energy management. In the competitive
scenario, interconnection deals with the opportunity to
achieve high quality standards in service providing.
Accordingly, this work presents a short-term load
forecasting (STLF) method applied to load areas of
municipal or regional extension. A forecasting procedure
- based on time series model using a Kalman filtering
approach - has been implemented. The model provides
one hour ahead forecasts of electrical load relevant to data
as available for an Italian municipal utility. The results
thus obtained are reported in the paper and discussed. A
comparison is finally evaluated with results of a previous
model, again based on Kalman filter, performing 24 hours
ahead forecasts.