Dan or Leticia? GOP senators might demur

State Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, D-San Antonio, might have the edge in collegiality as Senate president/lieutenant governor — at least among Senate Republicans.

Photo By Billy Calzada / San Antonio Express-News

Dan Patrick, if he can again humiliate incumbent Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst — this time in a runoff — portends a take-no-prisoners reign in the Texas Senate.

SAN ANTONIO — Here's one that will make your brain hurt.

Let's say the Texas Senate, as is likely in elections this year, remains solidly Republican. Maybe even picking up a seat.

With fire breather Dan Patrick standing a good chance of being lieutenant governor,Republageddon in the Texas Senate, right?

Actually, I'm not as certain of this as conventional wisdom would dictate. Or maybe I'm just whistling in the dark.

You see, there's good reason to believe that a substantial number, if not a majority, of returning incumbents, in their hearts of hearts, prefer that Leticia Van de Putte, not Patrick, be the Senate president.

Senate president and lieutenant governor are one and the same in Texas. Van de Putte is the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. Patrick, and incumbent David Dewhurst are in a runoff for the GOP nomination.

And Dewhurst is viewed as damaged goods. Patrick received a strong plurality in a four-person race. Dewhurst placed a far-back second, though he outspent everyone.

Patrick employed a familiar strategy in Texas — the I'm-more-conservative-than-you gambit. It's just as likely to work in this runoff, unless Dewhurst, with deep pockets, concocts an antidote beyond “No, I'm the real conservative.” A negative runoff election ahead.

I'm assuming a few things: That senators are interested in self-interest, that they have concerns that the public will not see anything kinder or gentler in the POP (the Party of Patrick). This can compel a conclusion that what senators might say in public about preferring Patrick, if he wins the runoff, will be different than what they say behind closed doors.

The lieutenant governor is said to be more powerful than the Texas governor. But these powers are almost entirely a gift from senators, not the state Constitution.

Senators' desire to constrain Van de Putte's powers could rest largely with “how she approaches the job,” he said. In other words, if she goes all partisan 24/7 on the senate majority, a move against her becomes more likely.

The lieutenant governor, by virtue of statute, sits on key boards and councils. But the reason the lieutenant governor is said to be the most powerful elected official in Texas lies in the power to appoint committee chairs and members and to move or quash bills — setting the legislative agenda in other words.

But a majority or supermajority can drive the agenda, too. Van de Putte ignores that at her peril.

Republican senators number 19, Democrats 12. If two seats flip, the GOP, if unified, has its can't-mess-with-us majority. Most folks think Republicans will go up to at least 20. But rule changes can be done with a simple majority.

And here's the thing: Van de Putte simply scores higher on collegiality than does Patrick, known for his red-meat policy choices and God-says-I'm-right-and-you're-not posture.

And there's a matter of trust. Dewhurst appointed Patrick to the powerful education committee chairmanship and to the also influential finance committee. In gratitude, Patrick is on the cusp of ousting him in humiliating whomp-butt fashion.

In Patrick, senators might see discord ahead, with Austin beginning to look more like Washington, D.C. — Texas in the national spotlight for all the wrong reasons. Amity, coalitions? Fuggedaboutit. Absolutely nothing in Patrick's campaign says otherwise.

This depends on how many red-meaters there are in the senate after November, how cowed senators are by the tea party generally and how much senators revere tradition.

It's not a given that a GOP Senate will restrict Van de Putte's powers. But neither is it a given that Patrick's powers won't be curbed, if not outright, at least enough to save the senate from itself — and Patrick.