If the shear relaxes, this could have a (slight) chance, as it would be over warm waters. Systems have been known to blossom in this area. Still though, I don't expect anything more than some showers out of this.

I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

pojo wrote:I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

pojo wrote:I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

Tell us how you really feel..

We haven't flown a system, let alone a storm in the ATL basin for a while and because this system does have potential to pull a October N'oreaster, I can see why the NHC and forecasters want this system under adult supervision.... but I have no control on whether Recon is flying.... that is the NHC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OFEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THEWEST-NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEMBECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEMBECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER AVILA

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"Tropical trash" ... well-put. Even Dr. McCoy couldn't save this mess. Maybe the 2009 season should be remembered as the year of "tropical trash." Sounds good to me. After 2005 and 2008, sounds very good, indeed.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ERN GULFCOAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A STACKED LOW OVER THE BAHAMASCONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEYPLAYERS IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEIREXACT TRACK WILL LARGELY DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH TSTM CHANCESINCREASE.

GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEAK SFC AND MID/UPR LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS W TONEAR S FL LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GFS SHOWS AN ASSOCIATEDMOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO JUSTOVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE SE CST...BUT HIGHER VALUES REMAIN JUSTOFFSHORE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ONPOPS TOMORROW. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER W...WE WOULD BE INMOIST SERLY FLOW WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES...BUT IF IT STAYS JUSTOFFSHORE THEN WE WOULD BE IN WEAK WRLY FLOW AND WEAK PSBL SUBSIDENCEON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEASTSOME INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN STABILITYACROSS THE REGION.

GFS/ECMWF STALL THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FLPANHANDLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUNDAY...AND THIS IS WHERE THEGFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. GFS BRINGS A CHUNK OF ENERGYTOWARDS/OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE STALLEDFRONT...WITH A BIG MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCESSUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE ACROSS THE REGION.ECMWF BRINGS THIS ENERGY MORE NW INTO THE GULF...ALLOWING A BIT MORERIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS SOUTH FL AND SHOVING THE STALLED FRONTBACK NORTH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION WITH DEEP SERLY FLOW...KEEPING HIGHESTRAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION OR NORTH. THE NAM AGREES WITHTHIS SCENARIO...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVEFEEDBACK. HPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM MORE WHICH MAKES SENSESO WILL NOT DRASTICALLY INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME.

Irregular? Perhaps, but certainly still possible if it times itself appropriately between mid-latitude troughs. And seeing how this is going to be swept away by one of those troughs in the very near future, I would tend to count that as typical (though perhaps not common), even at the end of October.

And no, this will not develop beyond an intermittent blob of thunderstorms, and I will almost guarantee that recon will be cancelled late tonight or first thing tomorrow.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OFEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEMREMAINS MINIMAL...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THESYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREIS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BRENNAN

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A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL ANDNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND IS PRODUCINGMINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTOF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ANDBECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS ALOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BERG

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