FSPI

Thursday, July 16, 2015

As you might guess from the title of this post, I've decided to call it a blog with FSPI. My interest in continuing FSPI has been waning for a while now, and I have other priorities going on I'd rather spend the time on. So I've decided not to continue on into the 2015 season.

Anyway, for anyone still out there, thanks for reading, hopefully you got some enjoyment and insight from what I wrote.

On a related note, it's been since 94-95 that the Lions have
had back-to-back winning seasons, so it's probably advisable to
hold off declaring the Lions have turned the corner. If they can
come out and contend again in 2015, it'll be a solid sign that
2014 wasn't another fluke season for them like 2011 (and the first
half of 2007).

The Texans rebounded pretty nicely from their 2-14 season,
especially considering they started three different guys at
quarterback. But I think they're gonna have to find a solid
quarterback before they're gonna do much better than 9 wins.

The Saints have another tough season, but this time they can't
blame it on the absence of Sean Payton. Maybe most surprising was
5 home losses for a team that had mostly done very well in the
Superdome for many years.

Monday, February 2, 2015

As you know if you read my game picks post, I was leaning towards the Patriots winning this game. But the Seahawks stayed in this, and came a lot closer to winning than I really expected.

Especially with close games like this that are back and forth in the 4th quarter and come down to the last seconds of the game, I feel like I'm picking nits to talk about why one team won and the other lost, but there are a couple things worth looking at.

As mentioned in the power rankings comments, the Seahawks had a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. If their defense gets one more stop, (or even just holds once for a field goal), they win. Instead they allowed the Patriots two long drives ending with touchdowns that erased their 10 point lead, and left them in a 4 point hole. Giving up two touchdowns was especially painful, because it meant their final drive was touchdown or bust.

The Seahawks offense established that 10 point lead with 5 minutes to play in the third quarter, and they had the ball three times before that final drive. If they score one more touchdown, they win. Instead, they punted three times, and had their final drive end with a turnover.

In the end, I think one of the big problems for the Seahawks was their offense was just too boom-or-bust, too dependent on the big play. In a situation like they had at the end of this game, where they needed a more methodical approach using high percentage plays, they just didn't seem to know how to do it, and it ended up costing them a win.

That's it for the regularly scheduled posts for the 2014 season. I'm planning to do the usual Pythagorean wrap up post, and then that will likely be it until July. Have a good offseason!

The 2014 Patriots also join
the 2007
Giants and
the 2008
Steelers as the only teams to win the Super Bowl after
trailing in the 4th quarter.

The Seahawks lose in possibly the most painful way
possible, blowing a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter, and then
throwing a game sealing interception on 2nd and goal at the 1 with
seconds left to play.

A lot of people have already said this, but especially with a
timeout left, handing off to Lynch is a pretty obvious play call
there. Or if you're gonna pass, throw a fade off play action or
something. Throwing over the middle like that seems like the worst
possible decision there.

As a football fan, I think this was maybe the most satifying
Super Bowl since the Saints beat the Colts in SB XLI (of course I
will recuse myself from judging SB XLV).

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

So a lot of questions for this game. What happened to the
Seahawks in the first 57 or so minutes of the NFC Championship
Game? A fluke, or something the Patriots can take advantage of? If
the Patriots can make the Seahawks look even half that bad in the
Super Bowl, the Seahawks are going to find out what it's like to
be on the short end of a lop-sided result in this Super Bowl.

How good is the Seahawks defense, really? My feeling is the
Seahawks defense isn't quite as good as their reputation. Since they
lost to the Cowboys in week 6, the Seahawks played five games
against opponents starting their second or third quarterback. Eight
of those games were played against teams that finished in the bottom
half of the league
when ranked
by points scored. The Seahawks did allow the fewest points of
any team this year, but it's not like they faced
a Murderer's
Row of offenses, either. I think the Seahawks defense is
overrated, and definitely not as good as they were last year.

Can the Patriots score on the Seahawks defense? An inability to
score on a good defense was the problem for the Patriots in 2007
and 2011. But they have a lot of impressive wins this seasons,
including blow out victories over the Bengals, Broncos, Colts
(twice), Lions, and Chargers. I don't think the Patriots need to
score a lot of points to win this game, as the Seahawks are just
1-4 when their opponent scores 24+ points.

The last two times the Patriots advanced to the Super Bowl,
they lost because they couldn't score on the Giants' defense. If
they lose again Sunday, I think the reason will have to be because
of the Seahawks' defense.

Like last year, I think this game will be decided when the
Seahawks' defense is facing their opponent's offense. But this
time around, I think the Seahawks' offense is weak enough that if
their offense does have a slow start, the Patriots won't have to
worry about falling into a deep hole by halftime like the Broncos
did last year.

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Week 13: the Cardinals go to Atlanta, perhaps expecting an easy
win over the 4-7 Falcons, only to discover that the Falcons are
still pretty good on offense, and had enough of a defense to keep
the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals in check.

Week 1: the Patriots go to Miami, and get shut out in the
second half, thanks to a Dolphins' defense that (at times) looked
pretty good.

Week 2: thanks in part to a terrible field goal kicker, the
Lions' sputtering offense can only put 7 points on the board, and
their defense, which was mostly pretty good, allowed the Panthers
three long scoring drives.

Week 13: the Giants go to Jacksonville, and let a 21-3 halftime
lead slip away. This looks like more of an upset thanks to the
Giants finishing the season 3-1, and the Jaguars having (yet
another) a really bad season.

Week 8: the Packers travel to New Orleans, but their defense can't
stop the run, and their offense can't keep up with the Saints after
Aaron Rodgers tweaks his hamstring. Probably the best game for the
Saints all season.

APR's Top 10 Upsets of the 2014 Season

Week 10: Steelers 13, Jets 20 (ρ=1.1766) The
Steelers had a pretty bad defense this year, they were 2-5
(including the Wildcard playoff loss) when they didn't score at
least 27 points. That meant when their offense had a bad game (as it
did in this game, with 4 turnovers, a missed field goal, and a
turnover on downs) even a pretty bad team could steal a win.

Week 17: Jets 37, Dolphins 24 (ρ=1.1785)
Both of these teams were out of the playoffs and thus playing out
the final game of the season. I suppose the difference was, the Jets
had been out of the playoff race much longer, and so were much more
in the mood to inflict some pain on their divisional rival.

It should also be noted that while the Dolphins' defense at times
looked good in 2014, the Dolphins were also 2-7 when they didn't
score at least 27 points, which (at best) doesn't say much for that
defense's consistency.

Week 16: Bills 24, Raiders 26 (ρ=1.1796)
The Bills needed this game to stay alive for the playoffs. But their
defense and running game stayed home, and as I remarked in
the week
16 pick results, Kyle Orton wasn't the kind of quarterback that
could carry a team in a situation like that, even against the likes
of the Raiders.

Week 7: Seahawks 26, Rams 28 (ρ=1.2046)
Another case where the Seahawks offense spent a big chunk of a game
doing a whole lot of not much. They managed to get going late in the
game, but the Rams managed one more late touchdown and (unlike the
Packers) got a key late assist from their special teams to close out
the win.

Week 16: Eagles 24, Washington 27 (ρ=1.2052) The
Eagles didn't have a good defense this year, as their record of 1-6
when their offense didn't score at least 30 points
attests. Washington only scored more than 27 points in two other
games (and one of them was in their other game against the Eagles).

Week 12: Chiefs 20, Raiders 24 (ρ=1.2072) Looking
back on their season, I wonder if the Chiefs suffered an injury to
some key offensive player(s) sometime around this game. A big part
of the Chiefs problem this season was they mostly lost when they
didn't score at least 21 points. For their last 6 games,
starting with this one, the Chiefs only made it to 21 points in one
game, finishing the season 2-4.

Week 11: Broncos 7, Rams 22 (ρ=1.2230)
Peyton Manning's injury supposedly happened during the Broncos' week
16 game against the Chargers. But looking back I wonder if there
wasn't an earlier injury. In the first 9 games of the season, Manning
averaged 3.2 touchdowns a game. From this game to the end of
the regular season, Manning averaged 1.4 touchdowns a game, less
than half his earlier average. Certainly the Rams' defense deserves
a lot of credit for their performance in this game, but I really
wonder if Manning was hurt a lot earlier than has been reported.

Week 4: Buccaneers 27, Steelers 24 (ρ=1.2306)
As mentioned above, the Steelers had a pretty bad defense (here
allowing the Buccaneers their second highest point total of the
season). The Steelers' offense didn't have as bad a game as against
the Jets in week 10, but they were only able to score once in the
second half, which opened the door for the Bucs to chip away at the
lead, and ultimately take the lead with just a few seconds left on
the game clock.

Week 8: Washington 20, Cowboys 17 (OT) (ρ=1.2349)
Part of this was Tony Romo getting hurt in the 3rd quarter. But even
to that point, the Cowboys offense struggled, scoring 7 points on a
Washington defense that gave up more points than all but 3 other
teams in the league. Brandon Weeden (somewhat miraculously) managed
to put 10 points on the board to force overtime, but it just wasn't
enough.

Week 1: Titans 26, Chiefs 10 (ρ=1.3249)
The Titans had what was easily their best game of the year, with
Jake Locker throwing a couple touchdowns and no interceptions, and
the Titans posting 162 rushing yards. What makes this the biggest
upset of the year was the fact that the Titans were easily one of
the worst teams in the league in their remaining 15 games, with
their only other win coming against the also-very-bad Jaguars.

As a measure of how big an upset the Titans @ Chiefs game was, it
would qualify for a spot
in APR's
top 25 regular season upsets, coming in between #5 (2004
Patriots @ Dolphins) and #6 (2011 Packers @ Chiefs).

As usual, I reserve the right to remove any game I feel was
affected by teams resting their starters. Thanks to most teams
having something to play for in week 17, no games were disqualified
from this list.

Monday, January 19, 2015

It seemed like almost everyhing that went wrong for the Packers
this season was on display in this game. They settled for field
goals after driving into the red zone. They had ugly break downs on
special teams. And (for the Seahawks' last three drives) the defense
didn't look like they could stop anything.

Just a really frustrating experience, to be gifted a game where
the Seahawks, for 57 minutes of game time, played like they didn't
have any business with the top seed in the NFC. And the frustrating
thing is, everything the Seahawks needed to go their way
happened. If the Packers got a touchdown on either one of their
early drives, they win. If the Packers recover the onside kick, they
win. If the Packers tip away the two point conversion, they win. If
the Packers get a touchdown on their last drive, they win.

But the Seahawks got all those breaks to go their way, and to
their credit, they managed to put together three very good drives,
all ending with touchdowns, right when they desperately needed
needed them, and it won them the game.

Colts @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

This game, on the other hand, went pretty much as expected. Much
like in their regular season meeting, the Patriots offense didn't
have much trouble scoring repeatedly on the Colts defense.

Somehow Andrew Luck and the Colts managed to keep it to a
relatively close 10 point differential at halftime, but an
ineffective passing game, and too few attempts at running the ball
meant that the Patriots had a pretty easy time scoring three
unanswered touchdowns in the third quarter, which put the game well
out of reach of the Colts.