Honestly this ridging pattern has been around since about the end of july/ early august time frame. It has since I feel transitioned further NW from a previous position to where we are currently. This doesnt mean we didnt have periods where we experienced troughiness but on the whole it has been since the mid/end of summer time period over here at least.

That's true... but no doubt, the general pattern has really amplified in intensity since November.

I saw someone on AmericanWX refer to this pattern we've seen so far as La Nino. Certainly accurate so far.

That's true... but no doubt, the general pattern has really amplified in intensity since November.

I saw someone on AmericanWX refer to this pattern we've seen so far as La Nino. Certainly accurate so far.

Yes very much so over much of the US it seems like there has been a lot more meridonial flow rather than cross continental (west-east) pattern while it goes though the trough ridge pattern it does progress eastward but deep trough west amplified ridge in central and eastern portions storm track is between N and NE across the country. Very curious to see how this all plays out. Stuck pattern has been the name of the game.

I'm gonna have to sit down some time during the break and look at the severe seasons of the years that directly followed the strong/super Nino winter. I know 1973 turned out to be a very active one... but that was an odd Nino event.

I'm gonna have to sit down some time during the break and look at the severe seasons of the years that directly followed the strong/super Nino winter. I know 1973 turned out to be a very active one... but that was an odd Nino event.

I know the spring of 1998 was very active, at least in the South. That spring was when the sky camera for ABC 33/40 in Birmingham showed the west side of the city going dark after a massive power failure in advance of a violent thunderstorm that produced an F5 tornado in the western suburbs of Birmingham the night of April 8, 1998. That same supercell produced a borderline F2/F3 tornado that tore through the northern suburbs of Atlanta right after midnight, April 9. Coincidentally, the tornado first touched down near The Weather Channel in unincorporated Cobb County, reached peak intensity in Dunwoody, and finally dissipated north of Lawrenceville, near where the Mall of Georgia is today. That same supercell might have even passed over me as well; I remember briefly waking up to loud thunder, frequent lightning, heavy rain and strong winds during the wee hours of the morning before falling right back to sleep. Good thing it wasn't tornadic by the time it got to Athens. A week later on April 16, downtown Nashville took a direct hit from an F3 tornado too. April 1998 was an especially violent month for tornadoes across the South.

I know the spring of 1998 was very active, at least in the South. That spring was when the sky camera for ABC 33/40 in Birmingham showed the west side of the city going dark after a massive power failure in advance of a violent thunderstorm that produced an F5 tornado in the western suburbs of Birmingham the night of April 8, 1998. That same supercell produced a borderline F2/F3 tornado that tore through the northern suburbs of Atlanta right after midnight, April 9. Coincidentally, the tornado first touched down near The Weather Channel in unincorporated Cobb County, reached peak intensity in Dunwoody, and finally dissipated north of Lawrenceville, near where the Mall of Georgia is today. That same supercell might have even passed over me as well; I remember briefly waking up to loud thunder, frequent lightning, heavy rain and strong winds during the wee hours of the morning before falling right back to sleep. Good thing it wasn't tornadic by the time it got to Athens. A week later on April 16, downtown Nashville took a direct hit from an F3 tornado too. April 1998 was an especially violent month for tornadoes across the South.

Western Maryland and PA also had a big (for that part of the country) tornado outbreak from May 31-June 2, 1998.

CPC updated their 12 month outlook. They had a surprisingly decent discussion about it. And their outlook for next winter is pretty much a textbook Nina pattern (as one would expect at this point)

QUOTE

SINCE WE ARE NOW AT THE PEAK OF THE EL NINO EVENT IN TERMS OF SST ANOMALIES, THE RELEVANT QUESTIONS RELATE TO HOW QUICKLY THE EVENT DECAYS AND WHETHER WE SEE A TRANSITION TO LA NINA, WHICH FREQUENTLY FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF EL NINO EVENTS. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION FORECASTS A RETURN TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY MJJ AND A 79% CHANCE OF LA NINA BY NEXT WINTER. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE NMME CONSTITUENT MEMBERS IN TERMS OF HOW QUICKLY A TRANSITION TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS OCCURS. THE CFSV2 MAINTAINS ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS MUCH LONGER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE, WHILE THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL IS MOST LIKELY BY EARLY SUMMER, AND ODDS OF LA NINA DEVELOPING BY JAS EXCEED 30%.

PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS

THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FROM JFM 2016 THROUGH AMJ 2016 ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE TYPICAL CIRCULATION RESPONSE TO EL NINO CONDITIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IMPACTS AS DETERMINED BY REGRESSION-BASED STATISTICAL MODELS AS WELL AS EL NINO COMPOSITES. THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), WHICH INCLUDE THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS), ALSO PLAYED A LARGE ROLE THROUGH EARLY SUMMER. OUTLOOKS FOR MJJ 2016 THROUGH ASO 2016 RELY PRIMARILY ON LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS AND OTHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INCLUDING TRENDS AND THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG. SOME THOUGHT IS GIVEN TO COMPOSITES OF EL NINO TO LA NINA TRANSITION PERIODS. THESE GENERALLY SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, BUT THEIR PHYSICAL BASIS IS NOT CLEAR AND SO THE OBJECTIVE SST CA AND TRENDS ARE WEIGHTED MORE HEAVILY. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. BASED ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SST ANOMALIES AFTER MANY PAST EL NINO EVENTS AND THE CPC CONSOLIDATION NINO3.4 SST FORECAST, EFFECTS FROM POTENTIAL LA NINA CONDITIONS WERE CONSIDERED BEGINNING IN SON 2016 THROUGH JFM 2017.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - JFM 2016 TO JFM 2017

TEMPERATURE

THERE ARE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EARLY LEAD TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS, WHICH LARGELY HARVEST THE LOW-FREQUENCY ENSO RESPONSE, EVIDENT AMONG ALL THE CURRENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY COLDER THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE A VERY SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED NEAR THE GULF COAST. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OVER THAT REGION COMPARED TO LAST MONTH. IN SPITE OF THE NEAR-RECORD WARM DECEMBER UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE SIGNALS STILL POINT TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION FOR THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ALL TEMPERATURE TOOLS CONTINUE TO STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH THE EARLY SPRING WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG EL NINO. ALSO, ABOVE-NORMAL SSTS ALONG THE WEST COAST CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN EARLY LEADS. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE 2016 SPRING ARE PARTLY RELATED TO THE EXPECTATION OF ABNORMALLY MOIST TOPSOIL AT THAT LEAD TIME.

A TRANSITION TO ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IS FAVORED DURING THE LATE SPRING AND SUMMER 2016 SO THE OUTLOOKS FROM MJJ THROUGH ASO 2016 FOLLOW A BLEND OF TREND, DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHERE AVAILABLE, AND OTHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CONUS AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT AT LOW PROBABILITIES. INCREASED ODDS FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED TO LAST MONTH ARE BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS, AND THE SST CONSTRUCTED ANALOG. OVER TIME, ODDS OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHERE TRENDS ARE STRONG. PROBABILITIES THERE ARE SOMEWHAT RESTRAINED BY THE EXPECTATION OF ABOVE-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WARM SEASON.

INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS FROM SON 2016 THROUGH JFM 2017 ARE BASED LARGELY ON THE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF LA NINA BY THAT TIME. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BEGINNING IN NDJ 2016-17 IS RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LA NINA INFLUENCES AT THAT LEAD TIME. A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA DURING THE AUTUMN IS DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOMALOUSLY OPEN SEA ICE DURING THAT TIME OF YEAR AND STRONG TRENDS.

PRECIPITATION

THE JFM 2016 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE EARLY SPRING CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PATTERN THAT IS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO. ENHANCED ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 70 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR JFM 2016 WHICH TYPICALLY HAS THE STRONGEST WET SIGNAL DURING EL NINO. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED THROUGH THE EARLY SPRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THE DRY SIGNAL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY PEAKS DURING THE JFM 2016 SEASON DURING EL NINO. THIS DRY SIGNAL SLOWLY WEAKENS WITH TIME THROUGH LATE SPRING AND EARLY SUMMER.

CONSISTENT WITH A SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD SHIFTED STORM TRACK DURING EL NINO AND CONSISTENT WITH THE NMME DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WEST-CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA FROM JFM 2016 THROUGH MAM 2016. A SLIGHT TILT IN THE ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL ALASKA IS BASED ON EL NINO PRECIPITATION COMPOSITES AND ENSO REGRESSIONS.

LAGGED ENSO REGRESSIONS AND ENSO TRANSITION COMPOSITES SUGGEST ENHANCED ODDS OF BELOW-(ABOVE-) MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC (GULF COAST) FROM JJA THROUGH ASO. HOWEVER, THE PHYSICAL BASIS FOR THESE SIGNALS IS A LITTLE SUSPECT. THERE IS SUPPORT FROM THE SST CA ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION, BUT NOT FARTHER NORTH. THIS IS AN ISSUE THAT WILL BE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS, BUT AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IN THIS REGARD.

DURING THE FALL SEASON OF 2016 AND WINTER 2016-17, THE POTENTIAL FOR LA NINA CONDITIONS IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR THE FAVORED AREAS OF BELOW- (ABOVE-) MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN COAST OF ALASKA (PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES).

CPC updated their 12 month outlook. They had a surprisingly decent discussion about it. And their outlook for next winter is pretty much a textbook Nina pattern (as one would expect at this point)

Those maps make me think of the summer of 1995, at least in the East. Much of the Northeast and the South experienced drought and extreme heat that summer. I wonder if the western Atlantic ridge will become the primary weather driver on the East Coast for the next 12 months.

POAMA was just updated yesterday. It doesn't have region 3.4 reaching La Nina threshold through September 2016. But it does have a west-based bias to the La Nada, seeing as region 3 is closest to 0C and region 4 is closest to -0.5C