'Rivers, not Kashmir, Pakistan's aim'

i do not where to post it so i am posting it here. Mods can move it to appropriate place
Although old article but i think this is the real cause for the battle for kashmir
original article at http://www.strategicforesight.com/sfgnews_114.htm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
March 31, 2005
Pakistan's obsession with Kashmir is not driven by territorial ambitions or love for the Kashmiris but rather a desire to control the rivers in Jammu and Kashmir, says a report.

"Pakistan's primary interest in Kashmir (is) to secure its water resources in order to satisfy Punjab and contain Sindh (and this) is in confrontation with the interests of the people of Kashmir on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC)," says the report.

The report - "The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations" - was prepared by the International Centre for Peace Initiatives, a Mumbai-based independent think tank.

"Pakistan is not interested in Kashmir alone; Pakistan wants Kashmir plus those districts of Jammu that form the catchment area of the Chenab (river)", it says. "A water war between Kashmir and Pakistan is inevitable in the future."

It says physical control over the Chenab valley would provide Pakistan an opportunity to build dams upstream and regulate river flows to Punjab and Sindh.

It notes that India has identified nine sites on the Chenab to build hydroelectric dams, some of which could be bigger or comparable to the largest dams in Pakistan - Tarbela and Mangla.

Under the bilateral Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, India can only build run-of-the-river hydroelectric stations. "If Pakistan can get control of the area, it would have no such restrictions," the report says.

"It would also provide strategic depth for the Mangla dam and the important Pothohar region in Punjab from where more than half of the army personnel are recruited.

"However, India would lose the strategically vital Akhnoor area in Jammu and also access to Ladakh," it said.

The report said if India and Pakistan were to take a political decision to restructure their relations, they would have to ensure that water served to bring them together rather than push them towards conflict.

"Since 1999, every proposal made by Pakistan through Track II diplomacy, either directly or indirectly, refers to water as a core issue," the report said.

"The statements made by Pakistan's military officials, Kashmiri leaders and newspaper editorials describe Jammu and Kashmir as a supplier of crucial rivers, and project bloodshed there as the sacrifice made by Kashmiri youth to ensure Pakistan's water security."

It quoted Hizbul Mujahideen leader Salahuddin as having said: "Kashmir is the source from where all of Pakistan's water resources originate. If Pakistan loses its battle against India, it will become a desert."

As a "bright and ambitious" brigadier undergoing a course at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London , President Pervez Musharraf himself had in a dissertation said the issue of distribution of Indus river waters between India and Pakistan had the "germs of future conflict".
According to the report, Pakistan 's per capita water availability has declined from 5,600 cubic metres at the time of its independence in 1947 to 1,200 cubic meters in 2005. This is expected to reach the "threshold level" of 1,000 cubic metres before 2010.

"While all provinces are suffering from water shortages, there is a tendency to force Sindh to bear a disproportionately higher share of burden than Punjab . The army leadership is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh," it said, noting that senior officers, including Musharaf, who is also army chief, have purchased land in Punjab .

The report said the construction of Mangla dam had led to resentment on both sides of the LoC - in Mirpur area of Pakistan-administered Kashmir as it has submerged large areas in the region and in the Kashmir Valley on the Indian side because the Indus Waters Treaty undermines the potential to develop hydroelectricity and irrigation projects.

"There is a direct conflict between Pakistan and the people of Jammu and Kashmir . Pakistan wants the Kashmir Valley and parts of Jammu to be able to build dams to divert waters to Punjab 's benefit at the cost of the Kashmiris.

"On the other hand, Jammu and Kashmir needs to come out of the Indus Waters Treaty to improve its own irrigation, hydroelectricity and employment prospects.

" Pakistan is not interested in the full accession of Kashmir if it involves giving equal rights to Kashmir along with other provinces. Pakistan 's interest is in having Kashmir as a semi-autonomous state, which cannot demand equal rights with other provinces, but which allows the federal government to exercise political control over its resources," the report said.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Before dreaming for all rivers in Kashmir they should improve their outdated water management systems . Even if they get access to water of all rivers how will they manage them with their such a Phantastic water management system which is being criticized by almost everyone including world bank.

It is very well known that after the initial post partition days and the first war, the pakistanis realized more than being a muslim dominated area that should be part of pakistan it is the water that is more important in kashmir. So the indus water treaty was negotiated that too with international arbitrators. India on its part has kept its end of the deal through thick and thin. But I am sure when if india was put in an untenable position through terror and proxy chinese designs, it can in the future use the waters as a strategic weapon and pakistan is mighty aware of that.

Kashmiris have long been off the list of pakistanis, its been the waters and the poor Kashmiris are just pawns for pakistan.

Before dreaming for all rivers in Kashmir they should improve their outdated water management systems . Even if they get access to water of all rivers how will they manage them with their such a Phantastic water management system which is being criticized by almost everyone including world bank.

Click to expand...

This is also our problem outdated water mgt systems though state such as Gujarat has done a remarkable feat by boosting agricultural production in a fairly arid state thanks to efficient water mgt.

People fail to see that water is the main cause of the dispute there is no mulim love in pakjabis mind to have kashmir. It was it is and it will be water. They can't accept India controlling water. It is now that they are accepting the truth.

wrt China we are at a disadvantage being a lower riparian country and without a formal treaty, wrt Pakistan the situation is fair because of the Indus Water Treaty. Any proxy support of Pakistan to flame separatism in Kashmir should be seen as an act of war, nothing less.

Any aggressive move by Pakistan wrt water will result in break of Indus water Treaty which is already not in favor of India. Re negotiations of the Treaty with a third party like last time the World Bank will only result in India gaining more, in current scenario.

There should be no third party involved this time. Think about it. China can make the whole world draw Taiwan as its undisputed part; China can make the whole world accept Tibet as its undisputed part on all of their official maps. How? Why? Because China says "either you recognize Taiwan, or us". Why the hell don't we keep this policy? Either recognize Kashmir and Arunachal as an undisputed part of India or do business with Pakistan and forget trade relations with India.

We are in a position to lay more assertive claims and therefore this opportunity should not be lost. Kashmir as a whole what is claimed should be the first diplomatic condition set forward to thousands of companies wanting to come to our country for their benefits. Recognize the state of Kashmir as an inseparable and undisputed part of India, or you want to keep it disputed fine go and increase your trade with Pakistan and their low-cost terror institutions.

If we don't do this now, we will never get a chance again. Forgive me for saying this but India as a country has to think practically, politically, strategically and realistically. Walking on the lines of Mahatma Gandhi ji who was one single great man, cannot work out for our country. A single political saint has nothing to lose as compared to a country ; a nation has a lot to lose such as we've been taken for a ride by all countries around the world who dispute whichever part of India with our neighbours. Today it is Kashmir and Arunachal. Tomorrow it will be Sikkim and Andaman and Nicobar, then West Bengal and Tamil Nadu.

We've seen countries going all haa hoo talking about how they love and stand by India. Let us put that to test and see how much worth their words they are.

Make it a choice; Kashmir and Arunachal as undisputed parts of India, or take your bag of trades to Pakistan if you want to kiss them so much.