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Tuesday, March 9, 2010

One Year Later

Being the anniversary of the Bear Market low on 3/9/09, today seems like a good day to review our performance since then.

When March started last year, we were about ready to give up. So many stocks were unbelievable buys yet the market kept spiraling down. A year later we feel vindicated as all 4 portfolios have easily beat the market since we started tracking them back in 2008. The Opportunistic Model had the biggest gain in the last 12 months at 165% (200%+ by our calculations) followed closely by the Growth Portfolio.

Going forward, were looking towards another strong year as the markets likely provide another solid gain in the 2nd year of this bull market. Its very unlikely that a bull market dies after only one year. As always we'll adjust the portfolios if it appears that the market won't continue the rally. At some point in late spring or summer we're like to finally face a true 10% correction so 2010/2011 won't be as easy as the last 12 months.

Growth Portfolio

The Growth Portfolio gained 155% since the bottom in the market. Easily doubling the gains in the market and beating the SP500 by 84%. This portfolio has a huge loss entering March last year, but now its managed to claw back to a very respectable annualized 8% gain. Very impressive with the market down nearly 7% during that span.

RETURNS

Last Week

4.41%

Last Month

15.37%

Last 3 Months

14.95%

Last 6 Months

20.67%

Last 12 Months

154.51%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

12.92%

(Annualized)

7.32%

S&P500 RETURNS

Last Week

2.08%

Last Month

7.04%

Last 3 Months

4.78%

Last 6 Months

11.27%

Last 12 Months

70.28%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

-11.60%

(Annualized)

-6.91%

RETURNS VS S&P500

Last Week

2.32%

Last Month

8.33%

Last 3 Months

10.17%

Last 6 Months

9.39%

Last 12 Months

84.23%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

24.51%

(Annualized)

14.23%

Hedged Growth

The Hedged Growth Portfolio was clearly different with the portfolio actually underperforming over the 12 months by 17%. Though considering the portfolio is still 30% in total and 28% more then the SP500 in its roughly 17 month history, we'd consider that very successful. A constantly bull market isn't ideal for this portfolio but we see more possibility in the years ahead to out gain the market even in good times. Over the last 6 months its up on the market by over 2%. Its clear that the portfolio will drastically outperform in market turmoil and keep up in the good times. Basically what you want to keep capital and grow it in good times.

RETURNS

Last Week

2.68%

Last Month

7.93%

Last 3 Months

6.89%

Last 6 Months

10.56%

Last 12 Months

52.44%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

29.39%

(Annualized)

19.66%

S&P500 RETURNS

Last Week

2.08%

Last Month

7.04%

Last 3 Months

4.78%

Last 6 Months

11.27%

Last 12 Months

70.28%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

1.62%

(Annualized)

1.13%

RETURNS VS S&P500

Last Week

0.60%

Last Month

0.89%

Last 3 Months

2.10%

Last 6 Months

-0.72%

Last 12 Months

-17.84%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

27.77%

(Annualized)

18.54%

Net Payout Yield

Surprisingly was the performance of the Net Payout Yield Portfolio. Even though its comprised by mostly slow growth, high dividend stocks it outperformed the SP500 by over 16% in the last 12 months. This portfolio continues to out gain the markets on a daily, monthly, and yearly basis. It's now headed towards 4 straight years of beating the SP500.

RETURNS

Last Week

2.64%

Last Month

9.61%

Last 3 Months

5.84%

Last 6 Months

15.87%

Last 12 Months

85.56%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

5.20%

(Annualized)

3.21%

S&P500 RETURNS

Last Week

2.08%

Last Month

7.04%

Last 3 Months

4.78%

Last 6 Months

11.27%

Last 12 Months

70.28%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

-5.98%

(Annualized)

-3.78%

RETURNS VS S&P500

Last Week

0.55%

Last Month

2.56%

Last 3 Months

1.05%

Last 6 Months

4.60%

Last 12 Months

15.28%

Last 2 Years

N/A

Last 3 Years

N/A

Last 5 Years

N/A

Since Inception

11.18%

(Annualized)

6.99%

Opportunistic Portfolio

These returns are impressive but I'll make a note that they seem off. Its only showing a 50% gain for the SP500 which is clearly too low. While generally accurate in the performance it seems inaccurate in the totals. Actual results should approach 200%+

Mark_Holder

S&P 500

Return Since Inception

141.55n/a

Month to Date Return

2.93n/a

3.08

Last 3 Months Return

8.62 n/a

0.81

Last 12 Months Return

165.64 n/a

50.25

Annualized Return

109.95 n/a

-2.37

Alpha

55.85

Beta

1.58

Latest Trades

Risk

Annualized Std. Deviation

Sharpe Ratio

Maximum Drawdown

47.33%

25.94%

2.32

0.98

-31.50%

-27.62%

Annualized Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is the measure of dispersion about a mean. It is used as a measure of risk of the portfolio returns. It represents the consistency with which returns were delivered in the past. The lower the better.

Annualized Standard Deviation

Standard Deviation is the measure of dispersion about a mean. It is used as a measure of risk of the portfolio returns. It represents the consistency with which returns were delivered in the past. The lower the better.

Sharpe Ratio

A measure of risk-adjusted return, using the return and standard deviation. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates the portfolio has earned a higher return for each unit of risk incurred. The higher the better.

Sharpe Ratio

A measure of risk-adjusted return, using the return and standard deviation. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates the portfolio has earned a higher return for each unit of risk incurred. The higher the better.

Maximum Drawdown

The largest amount that the portfolio has ever fallen, expressed as a percentage. It is a numeric expression of the regret an investor might feel for not having sold at the highest price. The lower the better. View Glossary for more detail.

Maximum Drawdown

The largest amount that the portfolio has ever fallen, expressed as a percentage. It is a numeric expression of the regret an investor might feel for not having sold at the highest price. The lower the better. View Glossary for more detail.