Weekly Weather: Warm, muggy with a decent chance of rain Wednesday

Good morning and welcome to my weekly weather report on the immediate past, present and future of weather in the Bayou City.

PAST

Wow, what a weekend that was in Houston. It’s difficult to argue with highs in the 70s, cool nights and mostly sunny skies.

I just doesn’t get any better than that.

Nevertheless, the weekend capped what’s been a very dry three-week period for the greater Houston area. Officially Houston hasn’t had a significant rainfall since Jan. 13, when one-quarter of an inch fell at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

The map below shows accumulations during the last 14 days, a time when much of the region recorded between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch of rainfall.

Rainfall accumulations during the last 14 days ending Sunday. (NOAA)

The bottom line is that the southeastern two-thirds of Harris County that came out of a drought last month might be falling back into one later this month if we don’t start seeing more of the wet stuff. As to whether we will, you’ll just have to read the section below this one.

Anyway, let’s do the numbers for last week.

Date

High T

Low T

Average

Departure

Rainfall

Monday

81

76

76

+22

0.00

Tuesday

77

59

68

+14

0.11

Wednesday

61

39

50

-4

0.00

Thursday

67

33

50

-4

0.00

Friday

70

43

57

+3

0.00

Saturday

76

46

61

+7

0.00

Sunday

72

48

60

+6

0.00

Average

72.0

49.1

60.3

+6.1

0.11 (total)

Yeah, that’s no typo. Monday’s average temperature was a whopping 22 degrees above normal for the day.

Today’s could be somewhat chaotic as a weak frontal system moves south (shown in the blue line below) before stalling around the coast tonight. The front will bring little or no cold air into the region. However an upper level system moving in from the west should provide a spark for some light and scattered rain across the area.

(National Weather Service)

Tuesday should see mostly cloudy skies before another potentially dynamic day on Wednesday. That’s because the same front system should move back north and combine with yet another, potentially more powerful upper-level storm system to produce more vigorous rainfall.

At this point there is a lot of variance in the models, from light rain chances to very heavy rain chances from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Right now, say forecasters with the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service, the southern half of the Houston metro area appears to have the best chance of rain rain during this event.

I’ll keep an eye on it and report back when there’s more certainty about what will happen with these late Wednesday-early Thursday rain chances.

With no real cold fronts moving into Houston this week temperatures should remain in the mid- and upper 70s during the day, and upper 50s at night. By the weekend highs should move into the low 60s. There’s a slight chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday as well — alas don’t look for a repeat of the really wonderful weather we just experienced.

FUTURE

So when might we see another robust cold front?

This morning’s GFS model doesn’t bring through a significant front and associated cool down until a week from tomorrow or Wednesday, on Feb. 12 or 13.

Until then be prepared for temperatures about 10 degrees or so warmer than normal, with mostly muggy air. It could be much worse in early February!

SUMMARY

My rating scale for this week’s weather goes from zero to 34, the length, in minutes, of a power outage at the Super Bowl on Sunday night..

My number: 28.

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FINE PRINT

As always, thank you to the fine professionals at the National Weather Service for the information and data that make this weekly blog entry possible. Also, bear in mind there’s always uncertainty in weather forecasting, particularly the timing and intensity of precipitation.