Mexico Elections 2018: Flash Analysis

"With the exit polls giving Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) a big win in the Presidential election Sunday evening, key will be the size of victory for his party and allies in congressional elections and gubernatorial races. Also key tonight (Sunday) will be the messages to the nation in AMLO's statements.

Note that President Trump tweeted a congratulations to AMLO. His victory is an opening for a new, more positive tone in Mexico-U.S. exchanges."

Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute

"Speaking with Mexican voters today, I found a mix of sentiment regarding Andrés Manuel López Obrador, even among those voting for him. Many are confident that he will bring change to Mexico, cleaning up corruption and putting the poor first. Others expressed significant reservations about AMLO but were simply unwilling to support any of the other candidates. In sum, it’s a mix of true believers and massive frustration with the political class that seems poised to propel Andrés Manuel to the presidency."

Eric Olson, Senior Advisor for Security, Mexico Institute

"Mexicans headed to the polls today with some big issues to decide. Polls suggest that they are in a “throw the bums out” frame of mind. Record homicide rates, massive corruption scandals, and continued economic anxiety has led many to cast this election as a rejection of traditional politicians and their parties, and vote for a different direction for the country no matter how vaguely that path is defined. “Estamos hartos,” “we are fed up,” is a refrain often heard from common Mexicans who may not love AMLO but have had it with politics as usual where the public treasury is treated more like a piñata than something to be carefully administered. Of course others do have faith in AMLO and believe the country is finally about to embark on a path that puts Mexico’s majority first and reaffirms Mexico’s ideals.

As important as elections are in a democracy, democracy is much more. If citizen demands for greater transparency in government, greater accountability, less corruption and violence are to be met then whoever wins today has to get serious about building democratic institutions or they will face the same fate in six years."

Christopher Wilson, Deputy Director, Mexico Institute

"The Mexican voting system, with polling places run by citizens and the votes counted by citizens in the open air for all to witness, is a stronghold of egalitarianism in a still-fledgling democracy. There were some problems with polling places opening late and a handful of more serious challenges across the country, but by and large electoral process has been unfolding in a peaceful, orderly and fair manner."

Very different tone in his speech to the crowd here in the Zocalo - he is feeding off the energy of 100k+ people gathered here tonight

@lopezobrador_ stresses reconciliation, respect for institutions & democratic rights while fighting corruption & impunity, in victory remarks. Pledges to be president of all Mexicans while fighting poverty. Mentions importance of U.S. relations; ambiguous on security strategy

AMLO’s speech in the Zocalo. “I’m not going to fail you...I don’t want to pass in mtonhistory as a bad president.” pic.twitter.com/qZggNUIC3n

AMLO announces that Marcelo Ebrard, the consummate cosmopolitan politician (and former Mexico City mayor), and Hector Vasconcelos, a more traditional diplomat, will jointly coordinate his foreign policy team during the transition.

Mexico's National Electoral Institute's rapid vote estimate indicates a victory for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador with 53% of the vote for President. Current President Pena Nieto offers his congratulations to AMLO.

Exit polls signal a big win for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's presidential race. Other candidates recognize his big lead. Now looking to see the size of the victory, including in congressional and gubernatorial races, and for the messages AMLO sends tonight.

It’s 8:45 pm in Mexico City and the presidential election is over even before the official vote count is in. Both Meade and Anaya have conceded and congratulated AMLO. Next we’ll see what’s the size of the victory, the congress, governorships, etc. And then what AMLO says.

As of 5:00 pm in Mexico City, local poll observers said about 500 of 700 potential voters had cast their ballots in this middle to upper class neighborhood voting spot without any problems. pic.twitter.com/pH1jOi0KOi

The Wilson Center, chartered by Congress as the living memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum. In tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue, the Center informs actionable ideas for Congress, the administration, and the broader policy community.