The first quarter of the season is about establishing what kind of team you have. The next quarter is about facing reality about what kind of team that is.

If you are a strong contender, you buy before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. A terrible team sells. This year those extremes appear overt. There were four teams on pace to win at least 100 games and seven in all to win at least 96 when the weekend began, while there were seven on pace to lose 100.

Conversations are tougher in the middle, and yet those are the teams most in need of being honest about their status: 1) Are they good enough to make the playoffs? 2) How are they set up for the next few years? 3) Will there ever be a better market to trade a high-end starter than this one?

Let’s take No. 3 first. The seven teams trending toward 100 losses are in that predicament for many reasons, but lack of starting pitching is a big one. Yes, the Rangers can deal Cole Hamels, but he is not as good as his prime and he is owed a lot of money. The Orioles could market Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, but that would take a level of decisiveness that Baltimore does now show often. Kansas City’s Danny Duffy is having a poor season, and San Diego’s Tyson Ross has not demonstrated he can stay healthy.

Within the Un-Magnificent Seven, the starter who most intrigues me is Miami’s Jose Urena. He was 0-6 with a 4.38 ERA going into his Saturday start. But he amasses strikeouts and groundballs, and I believe that at 26 Urena would blossom in a better environment — the infield defense of the Angels, for example, would elevate Urena.

Jose UrenaAP

Since he is not even arbitration eligible until the coming offseason, he would seem ideal for Miami’s rebuild. Except the Marlins are years away from real contention and need badly to keep stocking a thin system. At a moment when the market projects as thin with starters and teams such as the Yankees, Angels, Brewers and possibly several others almost certainly will be in a buying mode for just that commodity, you can perhaps get $1.50 for a $1.

Timing a decision is vital. The Reds, for example, held players beyond their highest-sell point, and their rebuild has suffered for it. The Tigers did not deal Michael Fulmer at the deadline last year in a similar situation to the current Marlins, and now Fulmer appears down a grade after surgery last September to address a nerve issue in his elbow (by the way, if he gets better as he distances himself from surgery, he becomes an interesting trade candidate, too).

Will the Marlins be honest with who they are and what they need? Probably not. Here are four teams that I think have starters and tough questions to ask between now and July 31:

Jacob deGromAnthony J Causi

1. Mets: The emergence of the Braves and Phillies earlier than expected — and looking poised to be strong contenders for years — should chill the Mets, who do not have much of a farm system to fall back upon. No team should know better how fragile starting pitching is (heck, they even drafted Fulmer). If they are still looking like the NL East’s fourth-best team come July, don’t they have to at least consider dealing Jacob deGrom and/or Noah Syndergaard and getting the kind of four-prospect package that begins to change their future arc?

2. Mariners: They will be loathe to sell because no franchise in the four major North American team sports has gone longer without making the playoffs (since 2001). But now they know they are without No. 3 hitter Robinson Cano for 80 games and for the playoffs, should they make them. And beyond James Paxton, Seattle’s rotation has been the kind of mess that makes it hard to believe the Mariners could outdo the Astros or Angels in the AL West.

Which is why Paxton should probably be in play — well, that and the fact Baseball America ranked the Mariners with MLB’s worst farm system. I get why it would be difficult to trade a homegrown guy who pitched a no-hitter this season. But he is 29 and, due to injury, has never made more than 24 starts in a season. His value is never going to be higher. When he is right, there is some Andy Pettitte in there, but with a better fastball.

Madison BumgarnerGetty Images

3. Giants: It is just not in this organization’s DNA to either rebuild or give up on legacy players such as Madison Bumgarner. Plus, the NL West may play down enough this year that San Francisco will be in it, especially if Bumgarner (broken pinky) returns in June like his usual self. Still, even after adding Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, the Giants began the weekend below .500. They have an aging core and a modest-at-best farm system.

Bumgarner is a free agent after next season and is exactly the type of legacy guy the Giants have always figured out how to retain. Much of that legacy has been his great postseason work (8-3, 2.11). Merely the aura of that would increase his value in the trade market and allow the Giants to significantly address their near future.

4. Blue Jays: Even if the Blue Jays maximized their talent this year, are they going to be better than the Yankees or Red Sox? At best, they appear to be playing to be the road team in the one-game wild card. Over the next 12 months they were expecting a strong shift to the future, notably with Josh Donaldson leaving in free agency and prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette on the horizon.

There have been a lot of conversations about them dealing Donaldson, particularly to open a spot for Guerrero. But there are few teams that need a third baseman — especially one in a down year seemingly working through a problematic shoulder.

Therefore, their bigger chip is J.A. Happ, who is an obvious trade candidate if Toronto sells because he is a free agent. He may not be an ace, but the lefty is the kind of solid starter — low walks, high strikeouts/groundballs, proven veteran — who helps you get into the playoffs and can comfortably start a game once a team is there.