Forecasts are calling for a wet weather pattern to be in place through Sunday night, with thunderstorms a good possibility. No severe weather is anticipated, said Jason Holmes, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Birmingham. But still, March signals the beginning of spring severe weather season, so be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions, he said.

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March signals the beginning of spring severe weather season in Alabama(Photo: Albert Cesare / Advertiser)

Rainfall amounts totaling 2½ inches are expected through Sunday night for the Montgomery area, he said. That’s rain that will fall on already saturated ground. There is a flood warning in effect for the Alabama River at Montgomery affecting Autauga, Dallas, Elmore, Lowndes and Montgomery counties, according to the NWS. At Tuesday about noon, the Alabama River was at 35 feet in Montgomery, which is flood stage. The river is expected to begin a slow fall Wednesday night.

“We will have a series of disturbances move through the region through Sunday night,” Holmes said. “The good news is they are expected to move through quickly and won’t produce heavy rainfall amounts like we saw last week.”

Some areas in the River Region received more than 3 inches of rain in less than 12 hours on Feb. 20.

“The rain that will fall will be much smaller amounts spaced out over several days,” Holmes continued. “So that really shouldn’t move the needle as far as river flooding in the Montgomery area is concerned.”

Forecasts are calling for 40 percent or better chances of rain Wednesday through Sunday, with highs in the lower 70s and lows in the mid-50s. For those keeping score at home, the average high this time of year is 65 and the average low of 41. Two cold fronts will push through the area, one on Saturday and one on Sunday.

“We will see significantly lower temperatures move into the area Sunday night and Monday,” said Rich Thomas, a local meteorologist. “The change will be very noticeable given the much warmer than normal conditions we have been experiencing recently.”

Starting next week, highs will be in the lower 50s with lows in the upper 30s before a warming trend midweek.

March is the beginning of spring severe weather season, a period lasting through May. From 1950 to 2018 there have been 293 tornadoes confirmed in the state in March, compared to 493 in April and 234 in May, NWS data shows. Not to be outdone, we see another spike of severe weather in the fall, with 275 tornadoes confirmed in November for the same time period.

And while tornadoes can occur anytime, the most likely period for them to occur us noon through 7 p.m., weather data shows. From 1950 through 2018, the most common time for tornadoes to strike is 5 p.m. with 202 tornadoes confirmed, compared to 175 cyclones during the 4 p.m. hour.

During the time period, there have been 41 tornadoes confirmed in Elmore County, 40 in Montgomery and 35 in Autauga couties.