NEW DOOM ON THE HORIZON!! T + 1 = GEM (global economic meltdown)

GET ALL YOUR MONEY OUT OF STOCKS AND OUT OF THE BANKS!! THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL COME TUMBLING DOWN IF JUST A FEW CODES ARE IMPROPERLY REMEDIATED! THIS IS IT! THIS WILL TRIGGER A GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN!!

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has urged the industry to
clear and settle all trades within 24 hours - or T+1, which means "trade plus one
day." It will require a major overhaul of brokerage information systems, which
have been required to settle trades in three days, or T+3, since 1995.

In essence, T+1 will force a switch from Wall
Street's traditional batch processing systems to a
real-time processing network that never crashes.

The conversion to T+1 will take until 2004 and
will cost about $8 billion, according to Don
Kittell, executive vice president of the Securities
Industry Association (SIA) in New York and the
organization's chief T+1 planner.

Y2K and other legacies

The good news is that Y2k-spurred upgrades -
as well as the transition from T+5 to T+3 five
years ago - have helped lay much of the
groundwork for this next challenge.

But the T+1 conversion may be more
complicated than the Y2k conversion, and it will
require an even greater degree of cooperation
among industry participants than Y2k did, Kittell
said.

Although stock trades seem instantaneous to
retail customers - one click, and the stock is in
the portfolio - the actual behind-the-scenes
processing requires several steps and several
days.

Both the seller and the buyer must register the transaction with a central clearing
organization, Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. (DTCC) in New York. Then the
two accounts of the trade have to be reconciled, errors have to be ironed out and
money has to change hands. In addition, there's the matter of handling the
physical certificates.

Moving away from batch processing

Currently, the system works through overnight batch processes, usually run on
legacy mainframes.

"This monolithic stream is the bane of our existence," said Richard Iturbe, a vice
president at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York. The entire industry will
now have to move to continuous processing, he said. "To the extent that your
systems can operate that way, you're ready for T+1," he noted.

This part of the conversion will cost the industry about $3.3 billion of the $8
billion total, according to a report by the SIA and Chicago-based Andersen
Consulting.

And the problems of converting or replacing old systems were what forced the
industry to push back the deadline by two years, said Larry Tabb, an analyst at
Needham, Mass.-based TowerGroup. The T+1 conversion was originally planned
to conclude in 2002.

Customer demand for real-time

San Francisco-based Charles Schwab & Co. has already started working on
replacing its batch processing systems, according to Vincent Phillips, senior vice
president of electronic brokerage technology. He said Schwab has already
worked on more than half of its legacy systems, not just because of the coming
T+1 conversion but also because of decimalization - and customer demand.

"Our customers want more and more and more real-time data," he said. People
who were satisfied with day-old data a short while ago now get frustrated if their
accounts aren't updated instantaneously, he said.

But replacing the legacy systems - though a big headache and major expense -
will pale in comparison with the larger difficulty of getting all the players in the
securities transaction chain to work together, said Tabb.

"[What] they're going to have to deal with is the political problem of getting
everyone to agree on how it's going to work," he said.

One key link in the chain is DTCC, the clearinghouse for trade settlements. It not
only has to upgrade all its internal processes but also all its links to the other
industry players.

"We've been working on this for at least a year and a half or two," said Steve
Letzler, a spokesman for the DTCC. Although Letzler couldn't confirm the
numbers, the SIA said it expects DTCC to spend more than $100 million to
prepare for T+1.

DTCC has begun to eliminate its overnight batch processing, moving to a
multibatch system with Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. and five electronic
communication networks. A multibatch system replaces one overnight process
with a series of batch processes that run throughout the day.

In addition, DTCC has formed a real-time link with the New York Stock
Exchange, which handles about 300,000 large trades daily.

"Eventually, we'll get to the other systems and get everyone to real time," Letzler
said.

A step ahead

Another firm that planned ahead for T+1 conversion is The Bank of New York
Co., which provides settlement services to more than half of the broker dealers in
the U.S. CIO Kurt Woetzel said he's been getting ready since the move to T+3.

"Starting in 1995," he said, "any new applications that we built were engineered
around the following factors: They reflect information in real time and process
information [in] real time, and they're message-based, rather than moving files
around."

Although there are still batch processes left, the critical systems - including those
for delivering information to customers and taking transactional information from
customers - are already running around-the-clock, he said.

The SIA will publish the technical standards for T+1 conversion by the end of
next year, with full compliance expected to come by the middle of 2003.

Capsule Review: T+1 and Y2K

Unlike Y2k, which had the clear deadline of Jan. 1, T+1 is a voluntary industry
effort so far. Its primary goal is to reduce the risk of a chain reaction of financial
disasters, said Don Kittell, executive vice president of the Securities Industry
Association (SIA).

Shorter settlement cycles lead to increased stability for the entire global banking
system, said Deborah Williams, an analyst at Meridien Research Inc. in Newton,
Mass.

Just as a bounced check can have a ripple effect when you've already written
other checks based on those funds, large trading firms can have the same
problem that ripples throughout the financial world, Williams said.

It isn't a hypothetical problem, either. In 1987, when a market downturn caused a
few securities firms to go under, the five-day settlement period meant the
problems rippled throughout the industry, causing other firms to fail. This
spurred the move from T+5 to T+3, said Kittell.

If trades were settled instantaneously, the risk involved would be nonexistent.
The SIA will, in fact, begin studying the feasibility of T+0 in the next year or
two.

The U.S. securities industry is also facing competition from overseas. Hong Kong
and Singapore already are at T+1, Kittell said, with Japan and Europe heading in
that direction as well. By beginning the process now, the U.S. will maintain its
leadership position, he said.

The switch to T+1 will also allow the industry to handle increased volume. The
current batch processes are coming close to their capacity limits, Kittell said.

Yet another reason to switch to T+1 is that it will save industry participants
money - about $2.7 billion per year, according to an SIA study - meaning that the
overhaul will pay for itself in three years.