Tourism industry is forecast to maintain steady growth up to 2021, driven by the rise of the middle and upper classes in emerging economies. The average annual growth for all countries in the Tourism Potential Index will be around 5%, similar to growth in last year’s edition.The market forecast consists of a ranking based on the average annual growth in international arrivals from 2017 to 2021 (four-year forecast), taken from ourTraveler Demands and Flows databases.

Iceland remains the fastest-growing market in terms of international arrivals, seeing an increase from around 1.8 million in 2016 to over 2 million in 2017. The growth rate over the next four years will be more than 11%. Reykjavik’s Keflavik airport is planning a major expansion in order to accommodate a rise in passenger traffic, helping the country’s tourist industry to continue growing.

Switzerland’s star rating has fallen from five to three. A strong franc and light snowfall impacting the country’s ski market has dampened Switzerland's tourism potential. International arrivals to Switzerland are expected to grow marginally by about 2% on average between 2017 and 2021.

Sri Lanka raises one place in the rankings and is expected to experience fast growth in the future. The country has risen in popularity as a tourist destination and tourist arrivals reached record levels in 2017, totalling around 2.3 million international visitors. Sri Lanka is investment-friendly and has improved its road and air infrastructure significantly.

As global risk has risen, the global average score declined by 4.4 points, from 46 points in 2017 to 41.6 in 2018. In total, only seven countries increased their score from last year: Portugal, the UAE, Norway, South Korea, the US, Egypt, and Ukraine.

The report Tourism Potential Index 2018, is designed to provide a standardized view of the underlying level of potential for expansion in the tourism sectors of 60 major developed and emerging markets around the world.

Companies mentioned in this report: TUI

Scope

Iceland remains the fastest growing market in terms of international arrivals, seeing an increase from 1.8 million in 2016 to 2.1 million in 2017. The growth rate over the next four years will be 11.7%.

As global risk has risen, the global average score declined by 4.4 points, from 46 points in 2017 to 41.6 in 2018. In total, only seven countries increased their score from last year. In total, only seven countries increased their score from last year: Portugal, the UAE, Norway, South Korea, the US, Egypt, and Ukraine.

Norway saw the fastest rise out all countries, with an increase of 3.3 points from last year and rising from 34th to eighth place.

A total of three countries hold a one-star rating in the 2018 Tourism Potential Index, the same number as last year. Both Saudi Arabia and Brazil have failed to increase their rating this year. Whereas Ukraine has risen by 2.9 points to score a two-star rating, Russia has fallen by 3.6 points to lose a star.