Saturday, March 03, 2012

I estimate that there may be more than 10-12 Primates who want to talk about the inevitable blacklash against Linsanity, and with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: Ryan Braun Urine, Players Being in the Best Shape of Their Lives, and what Eric Chavez thinks about the Moneyball movie.

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Rose had an awful, awful shooting game after that hot start. And the Bulls let him dribble it out and take a step back 20 ft fade away (I like the idea of going to OT instead of giving up the last shot to the other team but come on run a play) and god bless him he drained it.

Rose had an awful, awful shooting game after that hot start. And the Bulls let him dribble it out and take a step back 20 ft fade away (I like the idea of going to OT instead of giving up the last shot to the other team but come on run a play) and god bless him he drained it.

One of the best 8-22 games you'll ever see: 30 points, 11 assists, 8 boards, 1 stl, 1 blk against 4TO and of course the money shot.

Sometimes I'm watching the Bulls games and I think "Rose isn't playing that well" and yet he flirted with a triple double and helped force Jennings into 4-18 shooting himself.

I almost feel sorry for Jennings when he plays Rose. Rose has a hard edge to him like Kobe or Jordan or Bird, and when Rose doesn't like you, he plays with even more energy.

Noah was brilliant again. Boozer, despite basically being a jumpshooter at this point, is trying hard on defense and actually sparked a couple fast breaks.

Strange game all around: more Bulls fans than Bucks fans by a good margin and the two slow, defensive minded teams combine for 210 points.

Steagles, I am SHOCKED you didn't talk more about Turner. Getting Turner going, both for this season and beyond, is absolutely crucial to the team's success, IMO. Not that he's going to be Dwyane Wade or something but if he can be a well-rounded SG it'll be huge. And yeah, I think his extra rebounding on this team is pretty important.

Well, the main point of the trade from their perspective is the Charlotte pick (some protections, and totally unprotected in a couple of years). Both Korver and Brewer have expiring deals (or more accurately, team options), so like Allen they can be FAs and wouldn't impact their cap space this offseason. For them to make that type of trade, they'd obviously be admitting they're giving up on this season. In spite of last night, I don't know they do that unless they find a deal for Rondo. It's going to be hard for them to get anything of value for Allen because of his contract and the fact the salaries have to match (or, within 75%). I don't think that's a particularly appealing deal from their perspective either, but if they do decide to make a deal that's about the type of deal they'll get. My post was really the impact from the Bulls' perspective responding to the pick/filler post trade proposal above.

One of the best 8-22 games you'll ever see: 30 points, 11 assists, 8 boards, 1 stl, 1 blk against 4TO and of course the money shot.

Sometimes I'm watching the Bulls games and I think "Rose isn't playing that well" and yet he flirted with a triple double and helped force Jennings into 4-18 shooting himself.

Well, as you pointed out he started 5-5, and between that and the game winner he shot 2-16. For the first time in a quite a while, I was seriously questioning his shot selection. The worst shot I've even seen him take was the airball 3pt at the end of the first with 5 seconds left; he obviously didn't know how much time was left but that's inexcusable and it led to a layup for the Bucks. He also looked more interested in trying to draw fouls than finish, and while he got to the line quite a bit he also missed a lot of shots he normally would make. But yes, he did everything else well. And again, that game winner was a *terrible* shot. Jennings really must have nightmares playing him; he got his first bucket with 5 min left in the 3rd.

How the hell did milwaukke not double up on rose or try to trap him?

Because they want him to take a step back, fade away 20ft jumper instead of get to the bucket or find a wide open teammate. They played perfect defense there, they just got beat and got an unlucky break. He got the 11 assists off their traps, and could have had more if not for a number of missed bunnies.

Timberwolves also got a big win against Portland to move into a tie with Houston at the 8. ESPN is showing Minny in the 8 spot, so I assume they have the tie-breaker.

Already finished the season series 3-1 against them, so no need to worry about the tie breaker there. Rubio is obviously struggling a bit with his shot and getting beat up, so Love is carrying the team by himself. Last night Wes Johnson inexplicably got hot in the first half, and Ridnour closed out the game by making several shots. Love had a ho-hum 29-16 on 17 FGA and it was just another game where he took help from wherever he could get it. They have a lot of useful pieces, but nobody good enough to consistently help him which is why the absolute best hope for this season is sneaking into the playoffs. Still, I would be elated by that.

Timberwolves also got a big win against Portland to move into a tie with Houston at the 8. ESPN is showing Minny in the 8 spot, so I assume they have the tie-breaker.

The Blazers are an absolute mess. There's now reports of two sides in the locker room. The guys that aren't going to be here next year - Felton, Wallace, Crawford, Camby - and everyone else. No one seems terribly happy with Nate, except maybe Paul Allen.

But, again, I just don't know if anything will be done. If there's a GM, he's powerless. So, it's basically Allen and his guys in Seattle making the calls, and who knows what kind of communication is there. Allen has made it known he doesn't want to rebuild and still thinks they are a contender. Yeah, right.

Steagles, I am SHOCKED you didn't talk more about Turner. Getting Turner going, both for this season and beyond, is absolutely crucial to the team's success, IMO. Not that he's going to be Dwyane Wade or something but if he can be a well-rounded SG it'll be huge. And yeah, I think his extra rebounding on this team is pretty important.

i've talked about him in bits and pieces quite a bit over the last few threads, so i'm not sure there's much more to say.

i will note that his shots as a starter seem to be coming at jrue holiday's expense. turner seems to be on the point when he's in the game, which has meant that jrue's been on the wing and off the ball--so far, at least. i don't think that's a bad thing in the short term, but if this is going to work, jrue really has to be much more efficient than he has been so far this season. just in the two games that turner's been in the starting lineup, jrue's got an 11/3 assist-turnover ratio, which is good, but he's also shot just 8/24 from the field, which is not. for the season, jrue's only shooting 42%, and that's really gotta be a few points higher for this team to do much damage in the postseason.

one other thing i'll note just for the hell of it is that the sixers are a top 5 team in defensive rebounding percentage. it's hard for me to imagine just how horrible 25 other teams must have to be for this to be the case.

Stop me if you've heard this before, but Stephen Jackson's not happy where he is. And he wants to play on a better team.

i just looked at his career and i've gotta say that i'm shocked at how awful he's shot over his career. he's played a ton of minutes at the 2, and with how big and how long he is, i don't really understand how he can have only shot 41% over his career. does he just not play in the post at all? or is he just awful at it?

i guess he also takes way too many 3s.

anyway, i'd be pretty welcoming of him in philly. if he plays at a level anywhere near his peak, he could be a pretty valuable weapon to have against miami in the playoffs. the sixers would still be at a disadvantage in terms of talent, but at least physically, holiday-turner-iguodala-jackson-young would be able to match up against wade-miller-james-battier-bosh.

i don't think the sixers are likely to bring him in, though. and definitely not with the ~20 million that's left on his contract. but at the veteran minimum, i'd take him.

if you pay attention to what he's doing, yeah, he's definitely hateable. anyone that is as intense as he is on defense is almost always going to be among the most hated players in basketball. kevin garnett, bruce bowen, ben wallace, joakim noah, tony allen. bradley hasn't been around the league long enough to be at that level, but he's gonna get there.

if you pay attention to what he's doing, yeah, he's definitely hateable. anyone that is as intense as he is on defense is almost always going to be among the most hated players in basketball. kevin garnett, bruce bowen, ben wallace, joakim noah, tony allen. bradley hasn't been around the league long enough to be at that level, but he's gonna get there.

I don't understand this comment at all. Why would you hate someone for playing good defense? That doesn't make any sense.

The guys who are best at defense are frequently testing the refs' boundaries for what they can get away with. Even really good and clean defense is much more physical than lazy defense, and it's not hard to draw a line from constant physical confrontation to ill will. I think Stealges is right about this.

I was thinking about Dwight Howard again, and it seems like the revolving door of trade rumors has obscured a pretty obvious path that the Magic should take. It's clear that they're not going to build a contender around Howard. Even if there is some small chance he resigns with the team, it is obvious to almost everyone (except, relevantly, maybe Otis Smith) that the talent around him has eroded while the price tag has gone up. If he reups in Orlando, they're still not going to be relevant until they can clear the decks around him and hope that someone wants to play next to him, which probably won't be until about 2015 anyway.

It is also very clear that the trade market is not going to give them anything approaching equal value (fit aside, that's value that is not keeping them in contention now) if they try to trade for players. It now seems like they could not get both Gasol and Bynum (or maybe Bynum, Scola, and Kevin Martin, or whatever). Even if they could pull off that deal, they'd still be something like a 45-50 win team in a normal season and a probable second round playoff bust (although the idea of Howard, Dragic and Budinger to LA, Gasol and spare parts to Houston, and Bynum, Martin, and Scola to Orlando is kind of interesting all around). The more likely scenario if they're trying to get players back is something built around even lesser players. They might end up in purgatory without even getting salary relief. That kind of deal would leave them worse off than just letting Howard walk.

Of course, letting him walk is an option, but what's the point if the team isn't really good right now? Think back to Lebron- if Cleveland wasn't his home town, there might have been more chatter about possibly trading him before losing him. The team was too close to winning, though. There's no reason to play for years down the road if you have a shot to win right away. That's probably pretty obvious to everyone. If the Magic were a top 5 team right now, it might be worth hanging on to him to see what happens this year. They're not.

That means the only trade that makes sense is where you trade Howard for salary relief and draft picks. It seems to me that the aversion to this idea is that they already lost Shaq then got really lucky to get Howard in the lottery shortly thereafter, so what's the point of trying to get lucky again? The Shaq to TMac to Howard trajectory should have nothing to do with what they plan to do next. If they can trade Howard and Turkoglu's contract for expiring contracts and 3+ first rounders (especially if they can get one from a third team that might get into the lotto), that's the most comprehensive rebuilding plan. I know how much it sucks to bottom out, and I have read about how Orlando ownership wants to keep winning. Still, this team can only get worse from its non-elite position right now. They're either disguising their plans or they're delusional. We probably all know all of this, but I wanted to spell it out in long form because it seems like the conventional wisdom is drifting elsewhere.

re: orlando/howard/andrewberg, i think people underestimate how threatening they are in the playoffs. if anderson, reddick, turkoglu, and richardson get hot from beyond the arc, and if howard plays up to his potential as a defensive stopper, they really are capable of taking anyone down in a 7 game series.

as currently constructed, i'm certainly much more afraid of them than i am of chicago. and i think they have a better chance to take down miami than anyone else in the east, chicago and philly included.

and if i was orlando, i'd definitely hold onto howard and put him in the position next summer that if he wanted to go elsewhere, he'd be leaving 20 million on the table to do it.

re: orlando/howard/andrewberg, i think people underestimate how threatening they are in the playoffs. if anderson, reddick, turkoglu, and richardson get hot from beyond the arc, and if howard plays up to his potential as a defensive stopper, they really are capable of taking anyone down in a 7 game series.

Pretty much any team in the league can beat any other team in a series if their top 5 players are all smoking hot. The problem is, the Magic will probably have inferior talent by either the first or second round, depending on matchups. Of course there is a chance they could beat anyone, just like there's a chance that the Bucks don't lose another game, and go fo-fo-fo-fo in the playoffs. You'd be crazy not to play the odds, though, and if you're staring down the barrel of long odds for three straight rounds, you should probably reevaluate whether that's a battle you want to start.

and if i was orlando, i'd definitely hold onto howard and put him in the position next summer that if he wanted to go elsewhere, he'd be leaving 20 million on the table to do it.

The probability that he's actually leaving that money "on the table" is pretty slim even if he leaves Orlando. Larry Coon wrote recently that the yearly increases amount to something like $800k per year more to stay with your current team. Almost all of that oft-quoted figure comes from the extra year he can get in Orlando, and almost every likely career trajectory would have Howard still being a max or near-max player at the end of the contract- when he's 30, or 29 when he'd be eligible to extend again- which means that he'd recoup almost all of the difference between the contracts anyway. Much more likely than not, he's leaving about $3-4m on the table, which he can probably live with considering how much he will make in his career overall. Even if he suffers a catastrophic injury in the next three years, he still wouldn't leave $20m on the table. Arenas still got a max deal, and even Greg freaking Oden got extended, and that is pretty much a perfect facsimile of what a worst case scenario would look like over Howard's next contract. Again, that argument relies on extreme long shots to make sense.

I'm sorry. That was a bummer for Laker fans. Injury- Kobe going ice cold while Roger Mason, Nick Young, and Kevin Seraphin lead a horrid team back from a big deficit while the only really good player does little. Insult- the Washington fans chanting "Beat LA" for the last two minutes.

No matter how far the Lakers slip, as long as Kobe is around, they are going to motivate opposing teams and fans to be as energetic as possible. I guess that's the other side of having a handful of rings. Ok, now that I think about that I'm not so sorry any more.

That game was a fun time for HaterBoys except that it wasn't a playoff game; the trolling at the KBros blog has predictably spiked in the last 24 hours. Bynum, Pau, and Brown have all taken semi-veiled shots at Kobe in the media. So, many Lakers fans are taking it correspondingly hard.

I notice I was mocked/namechecked a couple of times here in the wake of that and Abbott's latest. I didn't see the game, but from the numbers and the KBros description of it, it sounds as if that this game, like the 6/28 Denver game, was in fact mostly on Kobe. Kobe played like crap in Detroit (Prince still bothers him), but in that game the Detroit bench was +55 and the Lakers' bench was -42.

But the Lakers' basic issues:

dead last in TOs forced and middle pack in TOs committed (Bynum had 7 TOs against the Wiz)
28th or so in 3P shooting (3/22 against the Pistons)
22nd in OPP OREB (Trevor Booker had 8 OREBs last night)

All mostly go back to lack of team speed/athleticism, lack of depth, and lack of a PG who can create and play drive/kick and pick/roll. They don't get enough easy baskets, they have a Triangle team in a non-Triangle system, and they have "replaced" last year's Odom with Troy Murphy. Kobe's gunning is an issue sometimes and he certainly deserves to take (and is taking) some heavy flack when he overdoes it, but the Lakers have many more serious problems than him.

It would be kind of funny if the Wolves made the playoffs and the Lakers finished 9th after Stern's machinations. I am hoping for the former. I would like that pick to be a non-lottery pick.

_____________________________

Howard: according to the ESPN "Rumor Mill" what Howard wants to do is to sign in BKN as a FA. That way, the Nets can keep what assets they have, trade Lopez for some help after Howard gets there, and sign a 2 (maybe Ray Allen according to another site). The post suggested that Howard doesn't care about the Stern/Silver "leaving 30 million on the table" stuff; Howard and his people believe that Howard will get a Derrick Rose-level Adidas deal as the centerpiece of a BKN-driven marketing campaign (so maybe it really is the shoes).

berg is probably right, but I will not blame Orlando if they just say the hell with it and keep Howard the rest of the year.

The Wizards have he lowest team IQ in the league. That play is reflective of the whole roster. I get why LA is so depressed. Being up 21 and then losing to a team that has trouble figuring how to tie their laces is very demoralizing.

berg is probably right, but I will not blame Orlando if they just say the hell with it and keep Howard the rest of the year.

You know, if I had to rate the options, that's probably the second best one. At least they wouldn't be paying Brook Lopez to lead them to 35 wins next year.

It would be kind of funny if the Wolves made the playoffs and the Lakers finished 9th after Stern's machinations. I am hoping for the former. I would like that pick to be a non-lottery pick.

I would rather beat out Houston for the last spot. If the Lakers miss the playoffs, it's going to be chicken little-like hysteria in the media. They're a pretty good team that's not particularly suited for this schedule, and I would like the narrative to parallel that reality.

That is more likely, unless Bryant or Bynum gets hurt. But the Lakers may look very different, if not necessarily any better, after March 15, one way or another.

I actually think there is about a 50% chance that the Lakers do not make a move, though.

and I would like the narrative to parallel that reality.

You are likely a small minority there among people with "Laker problems" as you once termed it. The Lakers hitting the lottery while Kobe is (perhaps) winning the scoring title and pulling down 25M would be a thrill for faux-analytical Haters and others worldwide.

If the Lakers miss the playoffs, it's going to be chicken little-like hysteria in the media.

It would be awful for Laker fans, but given the depth of the talent in the draft, I'd rather the team completely melt down than get the 7th or 8th spot. Also, it'd serve The Stern right to not have the L.A. market to draw on this postseason. The guy who once said his dream Finals match-up would be Lakers vs. Lakers, he can suck on a long hard Laker-less playoffs and like it.

Also, it'd serve The Stern right to not have the L.A. market to draw on this postseason. The guy who once said his dream Finals match-up would be Lakers vs. Lakers, he can suck on a long hard Laker-less playoffs and like it.

Good win for the Magic. Ryan Anderson didn't have a great night but he really came through at the end. For the Bulls, Korver's sudden inability to shoot ruined what could've been a nice comeback. I think he missed 5 straight open 3s in the last 5 minutes and then a contested one to seal the game.

"The Wizards have he lowest team IQ in the league. That play is reflective of the whole roster. I get why LA is so depressed. Being up 21 and then losing to a team that has trouble figuring how to tie their laces is very demoralizing."

That's true, blowing a 20 point lead never has a good taste. I think what happened is the Lakers just ran out of gas. They were on the road, played an overtime game in Detroit, back on the plane and another game the next day. This is just something that happens in the cramped schedule the NBA is playing this year. Lakers will be in the playoffs. They just need to put games like this behind them.

I agree with your assessment from Boston's side though, I can't see them punting this season, especially for a pick that has minimal/no value until 2016. They're 5 games up on the 9 spot, and have battled injuries all season. It's an ancient team, but if Rivers plays it smart and can just get them healthy come May, they'd have to be terrifying for the Bulls or Heat.

"The Magic talked to the Thunder about Howard, but Oklahoma City balked at giving up James Harden and Serge Ibaka, reports Schmitz (via Twitter). While that's entirely understandable, the idea of Howard playing with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, even if it's just for two months, is pretty fun, isn't it?"

I wouldn't give up Harden and Ibaka for Howard unless you knew Howard would resign. They've got a good chance of going to the finals or winning the finals already. It also marginalizes Perkins (though just looking, it appears he's been bad this year). I think there's some level of diminishing returns there. If/when Howard leaves, their team wouldn't really have any role players. Yeah, you can go get some but Harden and Ibaka are young role players that very much fit what their team needs. And guys of their quality in FA aren't cheap.

I wouldn't blow up what looks like the beginning of a dynasty for a better chance one year.

simmons is out with his trade value column now. two select quotes that jumped out at me:

Once upon a time, I could barely scrape together 40 good players for this column, as we found out when the 2006 edition pegged Shawn Livingston at no. 27. This year? I easily could have slapped together a top 60. The league hasn't been this loaded for 19 solid years.

did you know Houston is the only above-.500 team without a lottery pick in its nine-man rotation (much less starting for it)

as currently constructed, i'm certainly much more afraid of them than i am of chicago. and i think they have a better chance to take down miami than anyone else in the east, chicago and philly included.

That's because you have a blind spot the size of the sun when it comes to the Bulls, last night notwithstanding.

After 7 games in 10 its not all that surprising that the bulls lost. Only 24 games left over the next 49 days

Nah, they just caught Sixersitis when they were in Philly on Sunday; who knew it was contagious. Last night was also 4th game in 5 nights. But the defensive cracks started to show against Milwaukee, and the better Magic took better advantage of it. Rose had his 2nd straight horrible shooting night and the Magic really hurt the Bulls on the offensive boards (2nd time this week this happened to the Bulls). At least Boozer had a good offensive game.

KC Johnson: As if the loss isn't enough, Deng admits he might have to sit a couple game to rest his left wrist. #Bulls 1 minute ago

He hasn't look good in a while, and he took a hard fall last night. This sucks, but it's to be expected with him bypassing the surgery.

You know what, none of this can bring me down today. I'm flying high with the Illini firing Weber. What a beautiful day it is.

I wouldn't trade for Howard. Looks like he's determined to reach free agency, so I would rather try to keep whatever I have and then do a sign and trade for pennies on the dollar(trade assets wise). Like the Heat did with Miami.

It also marginalizes Perkins (though just looking, it appears he's been bad this year)

i'm not gonna trade machine this thread to death, and with evan turner now firmly implanted into the starting lineup, i'm not really eager to shake up the team's personnel, but if the sixers crash and burn in the playoffs, i might be very interested in this deal. eric gordon (and actually, there was another quote worth mentioning in that simmons article: "What's weird is that Gordon — by default — is still holding the "Best 2-Guard Under 29 Years Old" title even though he's only played two games this year. The state of NBA 2-guards is extremely grim.") being a restricted free agent in the offseason might screw with the math a little bit, but since nocioni has a team option for next year, this trade is viable up until july 1.

i've talked about gordon and why i think he'd be an amazing fit here, but adding in perkins for nocioni would be a really interesting addition. OKC would get out from under his contract (though i'm not exactly sure how desperate they are to do that) and they'd clear up some cap room that they can put towards extending harden and ibaka.

and for the sixers, perkins, again, would be an interesting addition. they're already the #1 defensive team in the NBA right now (by measure of D-rating and opponent's PPG), but they're lacking in a true center that can match up against dominant offensive centers, and they're lacking in a rim defender who can guard the hoop against penetrating guards. if his knee is healthy, perkins would go a ways towards filling in both those holes.

and in acquiring him, they still keep brand, they keep iguodala, they keep holiday, and they keep young. so everything that already makes them a great defensive team would still be present, except now, they'd also have one of the best defensive big men in the NBA (though, again, the knee would be an issue. he really hasn't been nearly as prolific a shot blocker since he went down in the playoffs a few years back).

This goes against conventional wisdom, I think - but I consider "good" off guards a scarce commodity. Rather, finding guys who can score from that position, or shoot well, or defend, or serve as a secondary playmaker - easy. Finding well rounded, efficient dudes - has been difficult for a long time. (That we've shifted some of these types to other positions - like Detroit giving Stuckey as much time as the point over the years as they have exacerbates this. Not that he's a great shooter, but you get my drift.)
This sort of ties in to the bit from SSAC about the value of big, versatile wings - albeit not in an explicit way.

FWIW, Simmons rated Harden a more valuable trade commodity than Gordon - Harden is also younger and more expensive - so, you've got to think that he'd rate Harden over Gordon as young off-guards go. Same for Monta Ellis.
(I'd also rate Harden over Gordon - if I'm trying to win a championship.)

Are there any of those anymore? Of the top 30 scorers in the league, only Howard, Pau Gasol and Al Jefferson are centers. You can throw Marc Gasol in as well. Only one of those four is in the East.

I think Perkins has carryover cred from being a starter on a championship team, and is overrated.

in the east, you still have to deal with amare, with horford, with noah, bogut, lopez, and hibbert. plus there's other guys who are threats on the boards (varejao, biyombo, chandler).

but yeah, it's not like it is out west with bynum, jefferson, and the gasols. and if howard leaves for dallas, there'd really be noone** left in the east who's such a load in the post to really require perkins effort.

**that's as of right now. this incoming draft seems to have it's share of physical centers--davis, drummond, and sullinger being the three most prominent.

and i'd agree that perkins is currently overrated, but i'd also contend that he's not been as impactful as he was before the knee injury. if his rebounding and if his shotblocking get back to pre-injury levels, i'd have no problem with his contract.

I'd also rate Harden over Gordon - if I'm trying to win a championship

For the Sixers, there is already a shortage of basketballs for Turner, Holliday** and Iguodala, as they all are at their best with the ball in their hand (as well as Lou Williams). My view of Harden is that he is most effective with the ball (not that I don't love his play). If you convince me that he'd thrive as a shooter, then yeah, I'm interested.

** I really don't see Holliday thriving as the off-guard to an Evan Turner point guard in the New Sixers World Order. The right thing to try, mind you, but JH just won't be able to shoot well enough to my eyes.

I wouldn't trade for Howard. Looks like he's determined to reach free agency, so I would rather try to keep whatever I have and then do a sign and trade for pennies on the dollar(trade assets wise). Like the Heat did with Miami.

That would take several teams out of the running. The new rules do not allow tax paying teams (over $4m above the line) to acquire players in S&Ts;.

FWIW, Simmons rated Harden a more valuable trade commodity than Gordon - Harden is also younger and more expensive - so, you've got to think that he'd rate Harden over Gordon as young off-guards go. Same for Monta Ellis.

I agree. For some reason Simmons has always referred to Harden as a SF. Seems like a distinction without a difference if we're comparing him to Gordon, etc.

For the Sixers, there is already a shortage of basketballs for Turner, Holliday** and Iguodala, as they all are at their best with the ball in their hand (as well as Lou Williams). My view of Harden is that he is most effective with the ball (not that I don't love his play). If you convince me that he'd thrive as a shooter, then yeah, I'm interested.
Sorry, I meant in the abstract - not for Philly.
In any case, isn't Gordon a guy who needs the ball in his hands more than Harden? They're both more scorers than shooters...

I wouldn't trade for Howard. Looks like he's determined to reach free agency, so I would rather try to keep whatever I have and then do a sign and trade for pennies on the dollar(trade assets wise). Like the Heat did with Miami.

That would take several teams out of the running. The new rules do not allow tax paying teams (over $4m above the line) to acquire players in S&Ts;.

That, and it's no longer up to the team. No team can S&T for a guy that doesn't want to be there. We went through this a bunch during the 2010 FA period. If the Mavs want to try and S&T for Howard, but he wants to sign with NJ, there's nothing Dallas can do about it. All the S&T does is get the player more money and the team he's leaving some minor "assets". So if I'm NJ, I wouldn't trade for him either (especially if I'm convinced he wants to sign there anyway); he's not going to make enough difference this year and you've gutted the team for a guy that was signing there anyway (not that any team would ever do that). Dallas is in a different situation; they can't really come up with a good Howard trade now, but he would help them this year. A team like Chicago, which isn't on his FA list and doesn't have any money to sign him, should be more likely to trade for him now and hope to convince him to stay.

47. Derrick Favors
46. Evan Turner
Let's see … Philly needs to get bigger … Utah needs to get better on the perimeter … both teams have talented no. 2 overall picks who aren't playing enough … both teams are a little too attached to those guys … the Trade Machine approves … (can't we just call this one in????)

Pass. Favors is the only Jazz big that can protect the rim, and is 3 years younger than Turner and already a better player. The Jazz could use a young wing that can shoot, but that's not Turner. I'm not a big fan of Hayward, but I think I still prefer him to Turner...

There's a rumor going around basketball sites that Milwaukee is likely to trade Andrew Bogut and that the Wizards are interested. Is it just me or are the Wizards bereft of useful players? Wall and their draft pick seem to be the only things they have of any value at all. I guess Vesely might still have a little value but he's been horrible and can barely get on the court for a horrendous team.

So, Melo was 34 last year and is not listed among the guys who got bumped. He moved up?

Last year at this time, he had two months to go on his contract and hadn't been fully exposed as someone you can't win with.

As noted upthread, I think you can still con someone into taking him off your hands through this trade season, but there's no way he should move up from last year, or be 31.

STAT dropped from 20 all the way out of the Top 50; he hasn't been the same since the Anthony trade. Anthony killed Landry Fields's production last year, and this year when he came back. Him coming back cratered Lin's production this year. That's not a valuable player for a real good team. He won't be a valuable player for a real good team again until he accepts a 6th man role. He's valuable if you're a developmentally-challenged impresario wannabe, though -- which is why Jim Dolan's never won anything and likely never will.

STAT dropped from 20 all the way out of the Top 50; he hasn't been the same since the Anthony trade. Anthony killed Landry Fields's production last year, and this year when he came back. Him coming back cratered Lin's production this year. That's not a valuable player for a real good team. He won't be a valuable player for a real good team again until he accepts a 6th man role.

People really blame Anthony for all of this? Was Lin really expected to continue being a superstar? Amare isn't a broken down from injuries? Fields isn't just inconsistent? How did Denver manage to prevent Anthony from doing something similar? (Nene and Afflalo have played worse since he left). Anthony was way overrated for while and is having bad year this year, but blaming him for everyone else seems a bit much.

How is James Harden not better than Gordon or any other 2-guard except for Wade (and I guess, arguably, Kobe)?

you probably shouldn't get too hung up on that. it was really just a throwaway comment by simmons that was meant more to comment on the dearth of good young SGs than to assert that gordon was the best of them.

There's a rumor going around basketball sites that Milwaukee is likely to trade Andrew Bogut and that the Wizards are interested. Is it just me or are the Wizards bereft of useful players? Wall and their draft pick seem to be the only things they have of any value at all. I guess Vesely might still have a little value but he's been horrible and can barely get on the court for a horrendous team.

they have a lot of useful players, it's just that all of them have the same deficiency (basketball IQ), and when things start going bad, there's noone to break them out of their downward cycle. booker is a good player. singleton can be one, too. mcgee is valuable. wall, of course. nick young can shoot, and if he's only the 3rd or 4th option, his efficiency would probably become much better.

lewis is trash. and blatche is probably beyond the point where he's worth gambling on. jordan crawford isn't my type of player, but i'm sure someone could find a use for him if he improves his 3P% to league average.

[melo] won't be a valuable player for a real good team again until he accepts a 6th man role.

i think you could build a good team around him, but i don't think you can fit him into an existing roster that already has a high usage #1 without there being consequences.

People really blame Anthony for all of this? Was Lin really expected to continue being a superstar? Amare isn't a broken down from injuries? Fields isn't just inconsistent? How did Denver manage to prevent Anthony from doing something similar? (Nene and Afflalo have played worse since he left). Anthony was way overrated for while and is having bad year this year, but blaming him for everyone else seems a bit much.

Carmelo has his problems, namely shooting 39 percent and not being able to defend anybody. But I don't think he's the one who passed the word around the league that Jeremy Lin can't go to his left. I've been doing some work on improving win shares by trying to measure a player's impact on his teammates, WOWY style for those who read Tango's blog. Carmelo has actually been a net positive to his teammates, at least up to this season.

i think you could build a good team around him, but i don't think you can fit him into an existing roster that already has a high usage #1 without there being consequences.

How good though? I think the best case would be a team that resembles the Dominique Wilkins Hawks. You had a center there for his defense (Tree Rollins), a power forward to rebound (Willis) a point guard who can handle the ball, distribute, and defend (Doc Rivers) and a spot up shooter at SG (Randy Wittman). They were a good team, but not a title contending team. They gave Boston a good scare in the second round, and a mano a mano for the ages in the Nique vs Bird game. But that's the best they did, and the Boston team they lost to was markedly inferior to the Pistons by that point. I don't think Anthony is as good as Nique was, and couldn't see even an ideal team built around Anthony being better than a 5-8 seed.

As an aside, Randy Wittman is a player type that is extinct in the NBA. A good shooting role player but a guy who couldn't create his own shot. But his range was more 17-20 feet. He played 9 years and went 17-53 from 3 - for his entire career. A player of that type does not play in the NBA unless he can shoot 3's today.

It's interesting to look back and see that it took the league almost 10 years to figure out how inefficient that sort of shooting is.

I'm mostly with steagles on the wiz. I wouldn't mind having one of those guys* (particularly McGee*). I definitely don't want to have a bunch of those guys.
As individuals:
- Wall. C'mon now.
- Booker. His future is now, but he's a very useful rotation guy and not what we're talking about here.
- Seraphin. Lesser Booker.
- McGee. Definitely worth taking a chance on, in a cheaper DeAndre Jordan sort of way.
- Blatche. I've defended him before, but pass. Went from inefficient to fell off a cliff.
- Singleton. Useful role/rotation player... if he can add ten points to his fg%.
- Crawford. Interesting in that, if he figures it out - his mix of threes, drives, and playmaking could be really useful. Unlikely to figure it out.
- Vesely. Didn't like him pre-draft either. Don't think his option'll get picked up.
- Young. Useful backup two... but doesn't rebound, pass, and shoot efficiently. Unlikely to get contract commensurate with those skills or ever be a guy I want on my team.
- Lewis. Sunk cost.
- Turiaf. Useful fourth big when healthy. His body apparently rejected the idea of his being an active member of *this* roster.
- Mack, Evans, Mason, N'Diaye - Don't care.

There are about 10, 15 all stars that would be the 3rd best player on that team.

But to your larger point, I think his upside is higher than Joe Johnson's ever was. I don't know that anyone will be dumb enough to give him max money, but I guess we'll see. He doesn't strike me as having that kind of reputation.

Harden's only 22 and good at just about everything (2nd in the league in ts% and 5th in ws/48). He might not be a "poor man's" Manu anymore - and I'd say he's already better than Joe Johnson has ever been. (Though not capable of playing as many positions as JJ could.)

Harden's only 22 and good at just about everything (2nd in the league in ts% and 5th in ws/48). He might not be a "poor man's" Manu anymore - and I'd say he's already better than Joe Johnson has ever been. (Though not capable of playing as many positions as JJ could.)

So we're just deciding that these 38 games represent his true talent level?

Even if we do that, Harden isn't as good a rebounder or passer as Manu's career numbers--either per 36 or per game (or Manu's 2011 numbers if you prefer that). He's around as good a scorer, but doesn't create for himself--Harden takes almost half his shots as 3's.

22 is pretty old for big improvements in the NBA.

I don't know that anyone will be dumb enough to give him max money

This is almost a certainty. Look at the guys who have gotten max deals recently.

I saw tweets about the scene depicted in 388, but never actually saw what everyone was talking about...until just now. I literally burst out laughing at my desk. Thank you steagles and thank you Dwyane Wade.

- Young. Useful backup two... but doesn't rebound, pass, and shoot efficiently. Unlikely to get contract commensurate with those skills or ever be a guy I want on my team.

I have thought about what he would look like playing some of the 2 minutes for Minnesota. Despite being very one-dimensional, he adds some value because that one dimension has an impact on everyone else. It would also be nice just to have a consistent shooter.

It's interesting that you guys think the Wizards have useful pieces. I see them all as dumb, inefficient players (not saying they're dumb as people, just as players). Nick Young? Seriously? The guy can't shoot and almost literally can't do anything else. More TOs than assists for a guard? That's horrible. He doesn't rebound, he doesn't defend. I don't see it. To me, he's one of the worst players in the league. To the Wiz, he's a building block?

McGee is interesting statistically. Then you watch him play. He's worse in every way than his stats would say. He doesn't know what he's doing out there and if Harden is too old at 22 to improve, McGee is certainly too old at 24.

Blatche is absolutely worthless. Crawford, for his career, gets 12.3 points per game on 12.1 shots per game. That is laughable. Every guy in the D-league could do that. I suppose Booker is interesting but he's not a guy anybody is going to super excited to trade for.

Anyway, I'm not claiming this year represents Harden's true talent level. I am saying: he's probably better than Joe Johnson has ever been* and, separately, if it is his true talent level, people should stop calling him a poor man's Manu. (Not that he's better either - but close enough to the same neighborhood.)

It's interesting that you guys think the Wizards have useful pieces. I see them all as dumb, inefficient players (not saying they're dumb as people, just as players)

yeah, but here's the thing, if there's one or two or three of these players on a team in the middle of their rotation, the team can still be successful.

but when an entire roster is made up of young, inexperienced, inefficient, immature players, and there's literally noone else on the court to steady the ship then, well, then you get the wizards. it doesn't mean that the individual players are without value, it just means that the GM who assembled the roster is an absolute dunce.

Nick Young? Seriously? The guy can't shoot and almost literally can't do anything else. More TOs than assists for a guard? That's horrible. He doesn't rebound, he doesn't defend. I don't see it. To me, he's one of the worst players in the league. To the Wiz, he's a building block?

He's not very useful on a bad team, so he's going to look really bad on the Wizards. He is a career 38% 3PT shooter with decent volume and he's 6'6. Daquan Cook is in the crunch time lineup for one of the best teams in the NBA and that's what he can do. It shocked me that Young is attempting about 15 FGs a game for the second straight year. He is going to look awful if any team relies on him that much. Still, to my eyes he has the athleticism and coordination to put the ball on the floor occasionally (more than Cook, at least), and he makes his FTs when he gets to the line. There are plenty of guys who have made careers out of doing just that. Plus, if you put him on a team that actually has a defensive strategy, it would maybe motivate him and at least cover up his shortcomings. Is he worse than Courtney Lee? Pietrus? Those guys have had rotation spots on contenders.

I suppose Booker is interesting but he's not a guy anybody is going to super excited to trade for.

That goes back to the redundancy part. If you have Booker next to Seraphin and Mcgee, you have too much physicality and not enough finesse. If you put Booker at the four next to a guy like Pau or Brook Lopez who can face up and/or use post moves to score, there would be more synergy.