On Thursday, longtime Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman, a Pelosi ally and fellow Californian, announced he would retire at the end of this Congress. That closely follows Rep. George Millers (D-Calif.) decision to also leave the House at the end of the year.

While Democrats should hold both seats, the departures put more districts in play. Perhaps more important, the retirement of two Pelosi friends  both of whom would be chairmen in a Democratic majority  bolsters the GOP argument that their grip on the House is solid.

National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (Ore.) called Waxmans retirement a clear indication that the House Democrats dont think theyre going to be wielding the gavels next time.

The NRCC will use the Miller and Waxman retirements to raise money and lean on business groups and wealthy donors to back GOP candidates, arguing that the writing is already on the wall for Election Day and theyd better get on the winning side now.

Pelosi was even forced to deny rumors on Thursday that she too was retiring. More than a dozen Democrats called her personally to find out what was going on after a story speculated she might step down.

Im running. Ive already started the paperwork process. My work is not finished, Pelosi said in a statement.

The fact that Pelosi has to take time to swat this kind of speculation shows how bad things have gotten for House Democrats in the past few weeks.

Democrats deny that the retirements have anything to do with the partys bleak outlook in the House.

I dont accept the idea that Democrats wont get the House back, Waxman said. I think that the Republicans have nothing to offer. Theyre against everything. Theyre against everything Obama wanted. They have no alternatives on health care policy. They have nothing to say, they have nothing to offer.

I dont think these retirements are driven by these kind of calculations, added John Lawrence, Pelosis former chief of staff and a longtime Miller aide. I would not infer a scintilla of connection between their expectations for the fall and for what I think is profoundly personal decision that 40 years [in office] is long enough.

Pelosi, for her part, isnt losing faith that victory in November is possible. Shes grown fond of telling this joke to Democratic members in recent weeks:

At the end of the Cold War, American and Soviet spies just couldnt stop spying on each other. So they decided to have a contest in one year to prove who were the better spies. They settled on a dog fight. A year later, the Soviets had raised a vicious pit bull; the Americans countered with a meek-looking dotson. Seeing the dotson, the Soviets were confident of victory. But once the fight started, the dotson mauled the pit bull. The Soviets were stunned. The Americans responded: While you were raising that awful dog, starving it, teaching it to be mean, we were figuring out how to disguise an alligator as a dotson.

(Also on POLITICO: Fluke may seek Waxman's seat)

Pelosis point: Democrats have to learn how to be smarter and more strategic than their GOP opponents.

Pelosi, though, has been far too optimistic in the past. She repeatedly insisted in 2010 that Democrats would hold their majority even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Shes going to say whatever she has to say, noted a senior Democratic leadership aide. Thats just the way she is.

Yet longtime Democrats admit that the latest round of redistricting makes it more difficult to put enough House seats in play this year.

On top of that, President Barack Obamas sagging polls numbers  particularly on the economy  are hurting House and Senate Democrats. The badly botched Obamacare rollout and the six-year itch for presidential incumbents are additional burdens facing Pelosi.

While more House Republicans have retired than Democrats so far, Democrats dont have the big edge that they need to win the majority back. And some of those Democratic retirements are in seats, like Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah) and Mike McIntyre (N.C.), that are all but certain to go Republican in November.

Overall, election analysts like Charlie Cook say it doesnt look good for Democrats. He said the same at a meeting of California House Democrats two weeks ago and Pelosi wasnt thrilled to hear it, according to Democratic sources. She pulled her alligator joke out at that time, the sources noted.

There are bright spots for Pelosi. Thanks in large part to her formidable fundraising skills and legendary stamina, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a big cash edge over the NRCC. The DCCC announced on Thursday that it had raised $75 million during 2013, a record amount, and has a lot more money in the bank right now than the NRCC.

Our record-breaking fundraising success comes down to one essential element: the insatiable hunger to replace this broken Republican Congress with leaders who have the right priorities and who will focus on solving problems, Israel said in a statement.

The DCCC is trying to use its financial muscle to help win a special election in Florida to replace the late Rep. Bill Young (R). Democrat Alex Sink has a slight edge in that race over Republican David Jolly, according to an internal DCCC poll released earlier this week.

A Democratic victory in that race would flip a GOP-held seat into the Democratic column and give Pelosi time  at least for a month or two  to push back against the idea that House Democrats dont have a prayer in November.

Yet for all their public bluster, Democrats are not nearly as hopeful in private about their outlook on Election Day.

Listen, a really good night [on Election Day] would be that we hold even, said a top Democratic strategist, speaking on condition of anonymity. Everyone in leadership is aware of that.

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