Chinese Internet juggernaut Alibaba, the most anticipated new issue of the year, opened its bazaar in the US on Friday, unleashing a global frenzy of buying on Wall Street.

In the 30 years since the IPO craze began in earnest, investors have become accustomed to such events.

Trouble is, as any Vegas odds-maker could tell you, the math is now decidedly in favor of the house, not the small investor.

IPOs stir the imagination of retail investors, and for good reason. Legendary launches of companies such as Starbucks, Whole Foods and Google have netted shareholders long-shot returns of perhaps hundreds of times their money.

For example, those savvy enough to put a few chips down on Microsoft on March 13, 1986, would have seen their $2,000 investment in the software giant multiply 750 times over the years, to be worth more than $1.5 million dollars today.

Unfortunately for the 2014 investor, the numbers are stacked against you. Even if Alibaba rises to world dominance beyond the imagination, it begins life as a public company with a market value of more than $230 billion, making it already worth more than Amazon and just a little less than Walmart.

Put aside that seeming absurdity and consider this: Were Alibaba to just triple in value over the next few years, it would likely be the most valuable company in the world.

Sure, in an era of single-digit returns that would be a huge home run, but the upside is limited compared with the riches savvy investors in previous IPOs were able to garner.

That’s not to say Alibaba won’t continue to be a hugely successful business or that its stock is a bad investment — that’s for the market to decide.