Free Saturday Saratoga Picks + 1 Million Point Late Pick 4 Split

by Dustin Fabian

July 26, 2018

This weekend is a great one in horse racing, with three-year-olds taking center stage at Saratoga and Monmouth. No Justify anymore? No problem, so long as the horses lining up in the Jim Dandy (Vino Rosso, Tenfold, Flameaway), Haskell (Good Magic, Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Promises Fulfilled) and Curlin (Hofburg) show up and run big.

Chad Brown is going to have a big Saturday (Todd Pletcher probably will too) and it starts in the first race with PARTY WITH FRIENDS, who will be tough to beat if he takes to the turf. I loved his workout from the gate two back – 4f in :47 2/5 (2nd fastest of 61) – and if he shows that much speed Saturday, he’ll be tough. WINNING FACTOR ran a nice race in his Belmont debut on July 8, while BAGGINS will be in the picture IF (and it’s a big IF) he breaks with the field.

1. PARTY WITH FRIENDS2. BAGGINS3. WINNING FACTOR

Race 2 (1:33PM ET) – Claiming ($50K) – 1 1/16 Miles on the Turf

DANCETRACK looks the part to me. He likes Saratoga enough (in the money in 2-of-3 local starts) and has performed well at the distance (2-1-0-1) and should get a nice setup in his first start since being claimed for $25K. He just always seems to run his race and he’s finished in the Trifecta in 8-of-13 turf races and all but one since coming to the US. WESTERN RESERVE takes a big drop in class – he’s a stakes winner that was running in graded races over the winter – which is extremely concerning.

1. DANCETRACK2. NILEATOR3. KING OF NEW YORK

Race 3 (2:07PM ET) – Maiden Claiming ($45k) – 1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt

Chad Brown’s CONSENSUS THINKING checks all of the boxes here as he drops from tougher company and adds ground in a relatively weak field. This is his first time running for a tag and I think it’s the perfect spot for him to get his first win. GRAY NILE gets back to an appropriate level and distance and should do well. AIR ON FIRE is not a horse I can advocate betting a penny on. He was just beaten at 1/20 odds at Prairie Meadows and is 0-for-11 in his career.

1. CONSENSUS THINKING2. GRAY NILE3. AIR ON FIRE

Race 4 (2:41PM ET) – Allowance ($77K) – 6 Furlongs on the Dirt

New York-breds square off in Race 4 and FAIR REGIS is a horse to watch. She loves to win races (5-for-15 in her career) and is 4-for-7 at this distance, which is a mark that jumps off the page. Irad Ortiz keeps the mount and she’s a very likely winner. BOWL OF KISSES did beat her two starts ago by a nose, but that one appears to be slightly more dependent on a slow pace.

COAST was a $500,000 purchase at the OBS March Sale earlier this year and is bred to win early and often. He’s a half-brother to stakes winner Balandeen and will be tough from an advantageous outside post. Steve Asmussen sends out ABSOLUTELY AIDEN, who cost $120,000 at auction, despite being out of a value sire (Stay Thirsty). Asmussen two-year-olds are clicking this year, so look out for everything he enters. Chad Brown’s AURELIUS MAXIMUS is a son of G3 winner La Reina but may need more distance to shine. In races like this, watch the toteboard and bet accordingly. If someone is taking money, take note.

1. COAST2. ABSOLUTELY AIDEN3. OLYMPIC EXPRESS

Race 6 (3:49PM ET) – Allowance ($87K) – 1 Mile on the Turf

Talk about a crapshoot. This race is wide open and I’ve landed on a layoff horse – HEAVEN IS WAITING – as my top pick. This horse has twice run well off the pine and has faced off against the likes of Frostmourne, Keep Quiet, Adonis Creed and Ticoneroga in his brief career. RAPT will come running late but he’s so pace dependent that it’s tough to trust him up top. He hasn’t won in over a year.

What will be, in my opinion, a parade of low-priced winners, starts in the Amsterdam where I love ENGAGE for Chad Brown. This field is loaded with ‘need-the-lead’ speed horses – PROMISES FULFILLED, STRIKE POWER and WORLD OF TROUBLE – and ENGAGE is going to get a perfect setup. Look for him to sit back, bide his time and unleash a winning kick. WORLD OF TROUBLE, who was fourth in the G2 Woody Stephens, will probably run well. In the event that one – or more – of the speed horses scratch, we should revisit this race and pick.

For me, this is a two horse race – IMPERIAL HINT and SWITZERLAND – and IMPERIAL HINT is the best of them. On his best day, he’s one of the world’s fastest horses. He beat the very impressive Whitmore in the G2 True North on Belmont Stakes weekend and he drew nicely here, outside of SWITZERLAND. That top rival has won four straight, including the G3 Maryland Sprint Stakes last out, but this is a massive test. WARRIOR’S CLUB would love to see a pace duel and he’s run well at Saratoga. He could round out the Trifecta.

I have a hard time picking any of these horses with much confidence. SADLER’S JOY is a really nice horse, but how do you trust him? He’s both pace dependent and quits running as soon as he makes the lead. He should’ve won the Grade 1 Manhattan last out, but stopped trying. And then in his two prior starts, he got caught behind slow fractions and couldn’t overcome the pace. MONEY MULTIPLIER is always around, but is just 1-for-5 at the distance and he seems to have a penchant for running second. HI HAPPY ran a nice race in the Manhattan (finishing 3rd, beaten ½-length) and gets an interesting rider change from Luis Saez to John Velazquez. He seems to relish this distance and is, tentatively, my top pick.

It pains me to pick another favorite, especially one that is light on credentials, but it’s tough for me to envision a scenario where VINO ROSSO loses this race. Honestly, this field is just too weak. And while VINO ROSSO isn’t the best three-year-old in this crop, he’s the best one in this field. FLAMEAWAY seems to be over-the-top and while he might get a better setup here than he did in the Kentucky Derby or Ohio Derby, I don’t like the direction this horse is going. And TENFOLD was pretty far behind VINO ROSSO in the Belmont, despite VINO ROSSO’s early move that day. He’ll run well, but he’s not yet proven to be nearly as good as ‘VINO.

1. VINO ROSSO2. TENFOLD3. FLAMEAWAY

Race 11 (6:54PM ET) – Allowance OC ($87K) – 1 1/8 Miles on the Turf

Chad Brown’s great day could continue in the nightcap, as he sends out the deep-closing REVERSETHEDECISION, who was just beaten by less than a length in a stakes race at Monmouth. My only worry is that she’ll come running just a bit late. If that’s the case, Godolphin’s TOO CHARMING has developed into a dynamite filly. She was also just beaten in a Monmouth Stakes race at odds of 27/1 and she’ll probably be the one they have to reel in. FERDINANDA faced a much tougher field in the Wild Applause Stakes at Belmont in June and was beaten just a nose in Gulfstream’s Sanibel Island Stakes earlier this year.

1. TOO CHARMING2. REVERSETHEDECISION3. FERDINANDA

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7.29.2017

While Saturday may not be at the top of the list during the seven Saturdays of the Saratoga meet, it is loaded with stakes that will go a long way in determining the major players later this summer on what will be a loaded Travers Day card. So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at a graded stakes quarter.
Race 5: The $200,000 GII Amsterdam for 3yos going 6 ½ furlongs
The prep for the GI King’s Bishop drew only six, and all eyes will be on #2 COAL FRONT, who enters unbeaten and untested for Todd Pletcher. And sure, while it’s never easy to make your graded stakes debut, he does just look too tough for a field that isn’t much. I am intrigued by #5 EXCITATIONS, who gets away from Churchill Downs and cuts back to one-turn, and if the favorite does get pressured, he’ll be the one to fear late, which is a likely spot where #6 TOGA CHALLENGER will make an appearance too, though I worry he’s not this good. You have to respect #3 MO CASH, who is a hard-knocker that has made the most of his talent, but there’s just too much speed here to think he can last.
Race 8: The $350,000 GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt for 3up at 6 furlongs
It’s tough to call a GI a prep, but this is a progression to the GI Forego, though that 7-furlong GI will test the limit of many of these. Obviously A.P. INDIAN wins this with ease on his best, but it’s safe to wonder if he can deliver it, especially since he’s lost three straight and nothing really has gone right for him this year. Sure, even if he’s 80% of the horse he was, he may still beat this field, but at a short price, I’ll make him prove it. I’ve always thought #5 BIRD SONG was a better one-turn horse, and while 6 furlongs might be a bit short, there seems to be enough speed to set up his late run, so he gets top billing. The class of #6 READY FOR RYE and #8 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is always in question, but they also get a positive race flow and should be able to rally for shares, though how big remains in doubt.
Race 9: The $250,000 GII Bowling Green for 4up at 1 3/8 miles on the turf
The prep for the GI Sword Dancer drew a mixed bag, but one thing it didn’t draw was an ounce of speed, so this could turn into a jockey’s race, and a sprint in the lane. It’s tough to take 5-2 or so on #7 ASCEND, especially since I wasn’t even invited to the parking lot of the wedding when he won the GI Manhattan at 27-1 last time, so I’ll make him make me look foolish again, while knowing full well the lack of pace will play to his style. The horse I’m most interested is #3 CLOSING BELL, who chased a ridiculous pace in the GI United Nations last time yet held relatively well to be a close 6th and won’t have to run nearly as fast early this time. Conversely, #1 BIGGER PICTURE took advantage of the crazy U.N. splits to win it, but he’s in trouble here, as is #4 SADLER’S JOY, who has no speed and will be left with a lot to do late, at a distance that seems a bit short of his best.
Race 10: The $600,000 GII Jim Dandy for 3yos at 1 1/8 miles
The prep for the Travers may have drawn only five, but it’s a big race since it pits the Kentucky Derby winner, #1 ALWAYS DREAMING, against the Preakness winner, #2 CLOUD COMPUTING. And while the former has an edge on divisional honors, since he also annexed the GI Florida Derby, those days seems a long, long time ago based on his complete flop in the Preakness. Add in the fact that both of his derby wins were obtained under dream trips, and he’s just not the type you can play here off such a dreadful 8th in Baltimore, when he didn’t run an inch. On the other hand, Cloud Computing is every bit the definition of a “now” horse, and while Chad Brown desperately wants to win the Travers, he’s saddling a horse that is simply much better than the rest of these, and is a deserving single in any horizontal bet. The other three are complete guesses, as #3 GIUSEPPE THE GREAT has never been past a mile or two turns, #4 PAVEL is here off one (yes, one) 6 ½-furlong MSW win at Santa Anita, and #5 GOOD SAMARITAN has made all six of his career starts on turf and has no speed at all. I’m trying to split the classic winners and add value to the exacta with the former, who has run sneaky good in his last pair, is bred for the added turn and distance and is tactical enough to be up close to a track that can be tough to close over going two turns.

7.26.2018

Aaron Vercruysse, Jeff Siegel and Zoe Cadman take an in-depth look at this Saturday's stakes action from across the country. This week's analysis includes the Twixt from Laurel Park, the Amsterdam, Alfred G. Vanderbilt, Bowling Green and Jim Dandy from Saratoga and the California Dreamin' and Bing Crosby from Del Mar.