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2014

The Science, Technology, and Public Policy (STPP) Programis seeking a new colleague to manage, coordinate, and conduct research for a major research project. The project examines a wide range of issues focusing on innovations, climate mitigation, and sustainable energy alternatives in China, the United States, and the European Union.

In 2012, when many energy experts argued that oil production had peaked, Leonardo Maugeri published “Oil: The Next Revolution,” which forecast a glut of oil and collapsing prices in the next several years. His prediction proved prescient. Now, as analysts look past today’s oil-market drama to a near future of robust liquefied natural gas exports, Maugeri is again challenging conventional wisdom. The long-hoped-for and hyped-up gas market, he concludes, will disappoint.

“Falling Short: A Reality Check for Global LNG Exports” details the new findings by Maugeri, a former oil industry executive who is now an associate with the Geopolitics of Energy project at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

By Nawaf Obaid, Visiting Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

When the Saudis, the leaders of Opec, decided at the cartel’s recent meeting in Vienna to maintain their oil production levels, it sent a strong message to the world: the market, not Opec, should decide oil prices. As a result, oil prices dropped, falling below $60 per barrel this week.

Chinese President Xi Jinping addresses China’s new concept of nuclear security with four “equal emphasis” at the third Nuclear Security Summit, and makes four commitments to strengthen nuclear security in the future. To convert President Xi’s political commitments into practical, sustainable reality, China should take further steps to install a complete, reliable, and effective security system to ensure that all its nuclear materials and nuclear facilities are effectively protected against the full spectrum of plausible terrorist and criminal threats. This paper suggests the following measures be taken to improve China’s existing nuclear security system, including updating and clarifying the requirements for a national level DBT; updating and enforcing existing regulations; further promoting nuclear security culture; balancing the costs of nuclear security, and further strengthening international cooperation on nuclear security.

By Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

With a few exceptions, the consensus emerging from last week’s inconclusive Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting is that if OPEC is not dead, it is at least in a coma. This may be a reasonable judgment based on the group’s ability to take collective action on a production cut to bolster the price of oil in the short run.

The Fall/Winter 2014/15 issue of the Belfer Center newsletter features recent and upcoming activities, research, and analysis by members of the Center community on critical global issues. This edition highlights discussions at the Belfer Center about Iran and its nuclear program. Former U.S. National Security Advisor and Center Senior Fellow Thomas Donilon and former Israeli National Security Advisor Yaakov Amidror added their voices to Center debate on this issue during a Harvard Kennedy School forum on a possible deal to prevent development of nuclear weapons in Iran.

In "Stopping ISIL," a number of Belfer Center security experts weigh in on what must be done in the next year to stop the spread and brutality of the Islamic State (ISIL). Graham Allison, Nicholas Burns, Chuck Freilich, Nawaf Obaid, Ariane Tabatabai, Payam Mohseni, David Petraeus, Gary Samore, and Barak Mendelsohn suggest solutions to this strategic challenge.

Robert Stavins and the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements research the best architecture for an agreement that will help prevent catastrophic climate change, a new book by Laura Diaz Anadon, Matthew Bunn, and Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti takes on the challenge of transforming energy innovation in the United States—the world’s largest economy—to help provide secure, affordable energy without causing major damage to the environment and the climate.

Energy Experts

Energy Technology Innovation Policy

The Energy Technology Innovation Policy research group (ETIP) seeks to determine and promote the adoption of effective strategies for developing and deploying cleaner and more efficient energy technologies.

Energy Forum

"Oil Shockwave" Sends Tremors through the Forum

Even a relatively minor disruption in the global supply of oil could have profound effects for the U.S. economy and national security, according to a distinguished group of former government officials, economists, and energy and security experts who took part in an innovative role-playing exercise in the John F. Kennedy Forum Monday night (April 29, 2008).

Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program

The Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP) applies methods drawn from technology assessment, political science, economics, management, and law to study problems where science, technology, and policy intersect.