CHARGERS ANALYSIS: Smith in need of some magic

SAN DIEGO — The NFL draft is six weeks away, but A.J. Smith is on the clock.

The Chargers general manager has to transform the roster back into a playoff team, one of the biggest challenges he has faced since he took over for John Butler in 2003. Smith must make the right moves this offseason. Too many missteps will likely cost him his job.

Player acquisition is key for a team littered with holes at vital positions. Smith must fortify a once-strong offensive line. He must add punch to a pedestrian defense, most notably at outside linebacker and strong safety. He must add depth throughout the roster to protect against the injuries that inevitably strike NFL teams.

In short, Smith must work some magic to snap the Chargers out of their funk. He will take his first steps toward reforming this team Tuesday at 1 p.m., when NFL's free-agency period officially begins. A total of 18 Chargers will hit the open market, although the team hopes to re-sign several key players including center Nick Hardwick, offensive tackle Jared Gaither, receiver Vincent Jackson and fullback Jacob Hester.

The NFL confirmed last week that the 2012 salary cap will be $120.6 million. The Chargers are $11 million under the cap, and that number could increase if left tackle Marcus McNeill is released as expected.

McNeill must pass a team-administered physical by March 15 to have a chance to earn his $10 million salary in 2012. The Chargers will save just under $9 million — the team will take a minor cap hit for his prorated (in cap terms) signing bonus — if he is released.

The Chargers haven't been active in free agency under Smith, but a quick fix is needed in what amounts to the most pivotal offseason in recent memory. The pressure has been on since team president Dean Spanos announced in January that he would retain Smith and head coach Norv Turner. The Chargers haven't made the playoffs since 2010, and a return to prominence is mandatory for this regime to avoid the axe.

Even with the stakes so high, don't expect Smith to change his stripes. His focus remains on re-signing his own players, improving through the draft, and adding selected imports. Smith has talked about improving depth — a stronger second-string unit is essential — and third-down defense, neither of which will grab headlines.

Multiple sources have said, however, that the Chargers are capable of making one big splash in free agency. That doesn't mean they will. The player must be right and the Chargers would never spend money for the sake of saying they did, but if a proven, front-line defender were available even at a relatively high price, the Chargers should pull the trigger.

Whether they pursue one might depend on the fate of Jackson, an established No. 1 receiver in search of a huge payday. He already has several suitors, and Tampa Bay, Chicago and Washington — a team that was expected to lavish money on Jackson, at least before the NFL stripped the Redskins of $36 in cap space on Monday — are considered the front-runners.

The bidding is expected to escalate quickly, likely beyond the rough average of $11 million per season that the Chargers feel comfortable spending, a source said last week. Jackson's future will set the course for other free-agent moves.

The Chargers must also address needs at reserve running back — Mike Tolbert might get paid beyond the team's value for him — nose tackle, reserve defensive end, strong safety and cornerback. They must evaluate which holes can be filled through the draft and which require a veteran free agent.

They must decide whether they can gamble on drafting another outside linebacker in the first round, with the 2009 selection of Larry English looking like a bust. If they lose Jackson, then into the free-agent receiver pool they'll go.

There are several issues and many ways to resolve them, and free agency will be an important tool for the Chargers to reverse their fortunes fast. Missing out on certain free agents — especially those with a high price tag — could hurt the Chargers long term and force Smith to polish his resume next year.

While free-agent negotiations have taken place in the shadows and scouting for the draft has begun in earnest, the time for real action begins now.