Thursday, June 15, 2017

P > E

Back when I got my first job I had to wear a full length apron with the symbols and letters "P > E". It stood for Performance is greater than Expectation. It was drilled into our heads that if you expect to do great things you will. It was also said that if you expect to fail, you will fail.

During Cutch's sophomore year, Bowman released an insert set called Bowman Expectations. It paired prospects with rising stars. Former 1st Round Draft Pick Tony Sanchez was paired with then rising catcher star Brian McCann. There was also a card that paired Jose Tabata with Andrew McCutchen.

Cutch got the front

And Tabata got the back

Let's look at how their careers turned out.

Andrew McCutchen was a former 1st round draft pick out of high school. By his 21st birthday he was one of the game's top prospects in all baseball (12th overall). Since his MLB debut at the age of 22 he has posted a WAR of 37.6 (one of the top 10 in MLB since debut). He has won an MVP, Gold Glove Award, Roberto Clemente Award, 5 All-Star Appearances, 4 Silver Sluggers, and became the face of a franchise. Cutch will have a team option at the end of this year and could join the over crowded Free Agent class of 2018.

Jose Tabata was a highly regarded prospect in the Yankees System (2nd overall) and by his 20th birthday was a Top 100 prospect in baseball. He made his MLB debut at age 21 and in only 5 MLB seasons has amassed a WAR of only 1.8. Never developing the power that was EXPECTING to come as he matured he has only 17 career HRs. Used primarily as a pinch hitter and platoon player by his age 24 season, Tabata is now earning $5M in the Blue Jays minor league system and won't become a Free Agent until 2019.

Based on the P>E model I would say that Cutch performed greater than expectations while Tabata has failed to meet his expectations.