Thanks Levi! Great video as always, but I have a question. Being that the center will stay off shore, isn’t it possible that the mountainous land interaction could possibly stregnthen and not weaken the storm by helping it consolidate?

It is true that sometimes proximity to a coastline can increase convergence and aid the spin-up of a circulation, but in this case, the mountains do not favor that. Instead, downsloping flow off the mountains can cause dry entrainment into the storm if it gets too close, which is a detriment.

Great video as usual, Levi. Incidentally, you’re pronouncing the second syllable in “Tobago” incorrectly. It should be pronounced as it is in the word “bay”. I’m from Barbados, so I know how the names of the islands in this part of the world should be pronounced! :)

As always, your analysis is excellent and very informative.
Appreciate the way you always do some helpful teaching about these tropical systems. Your explanations are thorough but never too complex for laypeople to understand.’I know you will keep us up to date. I am praying this storm does NOT go into the Gulf, as I have several friends in that area. Out to sea would be the best….love those “fish” storms!

Us up in new england have in exxtreme drought. we need it badly. the new 18z GFS run is turning back towards new england. Models converging a bit.Including the ECMWF which shows the storm in the Bahamas and a high exiting New England. Could be a good storm for New England. 1 week out though… Any thoughts LEVI???

You think it’s possible to comment on a Hurricane’s path with this degree of specificity a week ahead of time just because a long-range model on one run would appear to send it towards NE? I think with all respect you probably need to wait at least another 4-5 days see if there is any run to run consistency and any consistency with other models.

No,I mean like the GFS has been trending towards the European Model and Canadian a bit more….I mean it like that I did not state it would hit us up in NE but instead mean’t to state it that it could and the only two respected possible paths are towards mexico or up the east coast. It’s trending more towards the East Coast solution. That is it.

This system is is trouble, not good. The heat content of the water in the Caribbean and Bahamas is off the charts. All the models show an intense storm developing in the Caribbean which crosses over islands. This system is a potential killer before it escapes the Caribbean. Then it could intensify further north of the islands.

I eagerly await tropical storms in the open Atlantic that bring surf to North Carolina. I dread storms that develop in the Caribbean over steaming hot water. There are no good outcomes.

Thanks again for your excellent analysis of the situation Levi. I caught some great surf from Colin and Hermine in the Gulf by way of your “where it’s headed” heads up. Looking forward to the same (Gulf or Atlantic) surf success from Matthew. Other side note vote wise…as articulate and explanatory as you are, you should have been up on podium tonight, not them. You would have had my vote. Thanks again.