Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Move like today is the specific reason, why i give lots of importance to multitimeframe charts,because using them only we can identify turning points like this.a few days ago, i had shown a possibility of a TOP head&shoulder pattern may be developing...now this MAY BE,,was because of other pssibility of a channeled move....and a major fundamental event like budget, from a FREE HAND government + strenth of weekly charts of some major pivotals, gave a hint

that a new bull phase also possible.

now,one must understand that as a technical analyst i must keep all possibilities open.as so many times markets is clever enough to prove everybody a fool.so,with some strenth in weekly charts and possibility of hns pattern,i was here first to find out

weakness in daily charts..which was possible only at the end of the day.here intraday charts came handy. yesterday i had posted an intraday chart of one indice ,saying that the lower trendline was crucial to held...if the current rally is to continue.

i found yesterdays last hour selling dangerous, so i gave a premarket call to my clients to book full profit,,as we were holding nifty.

than at around 4265 my system generated a sell call in nifty,,and at around 1 pm at 4243,i posted here a chart with live data...saying we are at crucial level.which was ultimately broken

with heavy selling,throughout.

there are DOUBLE TOPS and TRIPPLE TOPS in some pivotals...with topping candle pattern like evening star in indices and possibility of a hns pattern...i think as on today,,market is trying to say that it knows abt the budget.

Sustained move above 4238 and a close above 4350 again can only falter the bearish scenario.

TODAY MORNING ,as dow was up overnight,nikkei,hanseng were smartly upto,,but this was my morning premarket messege..

bhavesh naik: theres a chance of nifty touching 4459--4478..but looking at ydays last hour selling.i advice to book full profit in nifty at open...sgx is up by 38 pointsbhavesh naik: sterlite given at 625...touched 665...my tgt was 660rohit jain: kat 12:40 around nifty trades at 4343..making lows at approx 4335....i have a feeling that its at a very very crucial level...if broken ,,it will have a meaning that our markets may not be expecting good budget,,and may be opening for the TOP ,HEAD&SHOULDER PATTERN.discussed here earlier

Monday, June 29, 2009

I wrote 2 days back ,that a brak out of head & shoulder pattern in hourly charts,will help markets rally pre-budget,,on friday the expected pattern completed and so,today was the

day for reliance,,although in last hour markets could not hold the gains,,but reliance closed

with lot of strenth.

for sensex i think that around 15000 are the logical targets atleast for this rally,,but as i have shown in the chart for sensex,two steep rising trendlines should hold,in the short term.,till these 2 trendlines held,,the current rally should continue atleast till budget day.

REMEMBER ,these 2 trendlines are important for the current rally only,,and i am not talking abt those trendlines which were shown earlier.

Combination of multitime frame charts ,is one very important aspect which hasnt got that much attention,in the true research based study of technical analysis..or if done its not popularised much among the users of the subject.A detailed study of weekly,monthly,quarterly and half yearly charts of major pivotals,do firmly suggest( as on friday),that our markets are entering a new more powerfull bull phase after getting corrected from 4700 to 4140....UNLESS DOW/S&P DRAMATICALLY COLLAPSE IN A FEW WEEKS TIME...this time around post budget i will not be surprised if our markets retains new highs..ONCE above 4700 and 15600.AND the budget will be very good atleast for BANKING and REALITY sectors,,with IT SECTOR,somehow managing itself to get ready for a far better future ahead.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Saturday, June 27, 2009

I believe ,that technicals always remains a step ahead of fundamentals.....on major economic tornaround throughout the world..markets have either topped out or have bottomed out 6 months to 1 year ahead of the real economies..

The big budget day is coming,,are the markets giving some hints about whats coming ??..i will update abt. strenth or weakness..till the last day before budget.but as on friday..i have posted 2 charts of sensex..my comments are on charts..

Friday, June 26, 2009

ALL important level..4350 and 14650 around in both indices were decisively broken at the end of a very very bullish day..ending the week with a HAMMER like pattern...which as i suspected

on 24th can be taken as confirmation that ,we have seen short term bottom at 4140..and the pre budget rally has begun.

This is the technical picture..and the trigger needed to break my resistance level,was provided by NECKLINE BREAK in hourly charts of reliance industries,,,with NEWS that it RAINED HEAVILY in mumbai.

I want to copy paste ..a few sentences of my earlier posts,a few days back..so that,one can have

an understanding that how combination of different TECHNICAL factors ,completes the reversal process.

BUT before that..have a look at the intraday charts of reliance ..where a clear triangle pattern was developed WITHIN the larger h&s pattern.with BUY calls as per my trading system.

HERE IS WHAT I WROTE A FEW DAYS BACK.................

On weekly charts,there were downward reversal candles in most of the pivotals..if at all as on friday markets closes around even our resistance zones of 4350....we will be able to presume that the bearish ness of weekly patterns may have been consumed.I have seen that..slow recovery such as we are seeing currently can suddenly pick up momentum,after the major hurdles are crossed and held.24 june 2009

For the coming week or so,,Lrsen and Bhel looks stronger than many other pivotals,21 june 2009

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Today morning ,nikkei was up around 200 points and before our markets opened for trading even hangseng was up around 400 points,,i think singapore nifty once traded at around 4360+ levels...our markets opened at around 4350 and slowly drifted down...in the first hour or so ,there was no major selling pressure seen.....

How my trading system behaved today. ???...could it catch the fall from highs ???

We have been talking abt. budget hope,,that particular positive factor for the markets ,encounter equally negative factor today, in the form of prediction of below normal rainsthis year.These re two important fundamental factors affecting short-medium term market moves.BUT what technicals suggested ??..as always i do firmly believe that fundamentals follows technicals,,or in other words ,fundamentals are reflected in technicals.Technically...as per me..4350-4370 was the major hurdle tobe crossed.as i mentioned 2-3 days ago..that any rally upto 4350-4370 zone should be shorted.yesterday i added another factor,,(which offcourse couldhave proven very positive),it was inverted h&s in hourly charts of reliance,,there were..four IFS (IF,IF,IF,IF),in saying that the pattern can get completed if the neckline..or around 2040 levels be broken..please see yesterdays chart of reliance.THIS breakout never happend and morning highs were around 4350 and 14600 in nifty and sensex.SO,both technical factors worked against the bulls for the day.

FIRST the biggy...if one has a look at daily charts of reliance ,today,,it hasnt done any thing great.,,but looking at hourly charts,,one feels that something maybe cooking up.importantly,

it had reached our targeted price 1928 yesterday and than completed a PIERCING LINE candle

reversal pattern.on hourly charts ,it MAY be forming an inverted head & shoulder pattern.IF IF IF IF...COMPLETED(completes when breaks the neckline with volume onthe upside),it can be a big positive for the markets

NIFTY :4193,, was held back fast..and not broken today,,making a small little HIGHER TOP--HIGHER BOTTOM,on intraday charts.although i still feel that 4350-4370 zone will be very much crucial resistance for the markets,,to confirm that THE CORRECTION may have ended at4146 yesterday.so this is an effort to be a step ahead to find out if something is happening that can lead to a bigger pre-budget rally.

On weekly charts,there were downward reversal candles in most of the pivotals..if at all as on friday markets closes around even our resistance zones of 4350....we will be able to presume that the bearish ness of weekly patterns may have been consumed.

I have seen that..slow recovery such as we are seeing currently can suddenly pick up momentum,after the major hurdles are crossed and held.

Last half an hours selling,,have punctured the smart rally from the morning ,opening lows.Reliance was the biggy today,bouncing strongly in the opening minutes only from my targeted level of 1928 around (made a panic low at 1900),which was shown in the chart posted here...4193 was recovered very soon,,sbi couldnt trade below 1660,r-cap didnt go much below 860( low 854 ?)..and bhel helped the markets along with news based rally in ongc.

NOW ?????????? a big question..i am trying to find the answer.since it has rallied from morning lows..amidst bearishness of the world markets,,it could be either Budget HOPE OR EXPIERY ,reasons.whatever may be the reason of the pullback,,unless nifty trades above 4355-4375..as shown in the chart and unless sensex trades above 14625-14650..all the rallies upto these levels should be taken as corrective in the natureAND should be shorted.

for larsen,as one can see in the chart..it has to cross major hurdle at 1550..otherwise the picture is gloomy for the short term.

Monday, June 22, 2009

Today Morning and in the week-end, i posted four important charts,,all were showing probable,

resistance zones and fibonacci hurdles.these were of 1)nifty, 2)r-cap, 3)reliance, 4)sbi but i didnt put sensex chart.,one comment i put on nifty chart was watch the 1.618 fibbo. level,which was 4362...this level was arrived by taking the last LEG of the fall which ended at 4207,,,it was from 4307--4207 (please view charts ).,,now today nifty made high at 4352,,it missed by 10 points,,BUT ..as i am putting the SENSEX chart,in sensex the last LEG of fall was from 14482-14179..on friday from this lows sensex bounced back sharply,,1.618,of this leg comes at 14666, and vow !!!!!!! sensex high today was 14668 !!.

AS i wrote in the morning itself,when whole asia was up..that i will be looking for weakneses rather than trying to find buy calls.the markets responded nicely ,quickly falling from highs.

While puttng reliance chart ,i gave a tgt of minimum 1928..it came upto 1933. AND for r-cap

Sunday, June 21, 2009

For the coming week or so,,Lrsen and Bhel looks stronger than many other pivotals,but since ,my focus is on the downside,i will be keenly watching,resistance levels and resistance zones,for rather weaker pivotals.

Since the short-med.term direction has changed to a little bit on the negative side,our approach,

should be to sell the rallies,but we cant sell on rallies in the stronger stocks,we must pick-up weaker stocks and their to ,weve to find resistance levels,upto which the rallies can be termed

as WEAKER RALLIES.

THIS has clear adnantages,,as if markets turn too positive,than selling in stronger stocks can even become fatal for us,,on the other side if markets move down as per our analysis,we get lot of benefit in selling the weaker stocks.