2 The reconstruction of the digital Dutch Population Census of 1960 Michelle van den Berk Peter Doorn 1. Introduction 1.1 Aim of this report This paper aims to propose possible solutions for the digital publication of 1960 census data on micro level. At this moment the data are stored at the Steinmetz Archive as data set P0061. They are not publicly available, but only partly for those who have obtained permission from the owner, Statistics Netherlands. In addition, the dataset contains several flaws, some of which are very substantial. These flaws have been investigated and in this paper an attempt has been made to list them all, along with solutions for eliminating them, if possible. The goal is to make clear that this data set is still worth publishing for scientific research, despite the fact that is will be impossible to eliminate every single flaw or to reconstruct every single omission. 1.2 The organisation and context of the 1960 census The 13 th Dutch population census of 1960, held on 31 st May, was to be the first digital census in the Netherlands. Data from the questionnaires concerning about 11 million inhabitants were entered manually onto punch cards, analysed, published, and then stored on punch cards. Although we have now learned, that this procedure may lead to extensive losses of information, it was at the time considered as highly modern and efficient. Especially experiences in the United States have been valuable. At the 2003 Conference of the Association for History and Computing people from the Minnesota Population Centre, who have a long experience with census data and the use of punch cards for censuses, shared their knowledge with us about lost punch card data. We are certainly not the only ones with large amount of data missing. 1.3 The digitisation and digital preservation of the Dutch censuses Between 1997 and 1999 Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Institute for Scientific Information Services (NIWI) collaborated on a project entitled Digitising the Dutch Population Censuses. This project resulted in two sets of CD-ROMs, a website, an academic symposium, and a book containing the results of this symposium. However, only the aggregate data of the 1899 census were fully available for statistical research, making this the most valuable material of the publication from a scientific point of view. For all the other census years there were only a register and scanned images of the pages belonging to the published census books. At this moment NIWI is carrying out two projects to digitise fully and publish all the other censuses as well. This will concern mostly aggregated tables, as electronic data on micro-level are only available for the census years 1960 and

3 1.4 The Steinmetz Archive and the NHDA within NIWI The Steinmetz Archive was founded in 1962 as the Steinmetz Foundation. The archive s concern is the availability of existing empirical data for social science research. It aims to acquire and document data sets that apply wholly or partly to the Netherlands for distribution among users within and outside the country. The Steinmetz Archive cooperates closely with fellow institutions abroad in order to improve collection and distribution. Within this network, the archive also acts as an intermediary between Dutch users and data collections, which may be found abroad. The Steinmetz collection contains data sets from about 1500 research projects, which are being used for scientific research, education and policy making. Since 1997 the Steinmetz Archive has been part of the Netherlands Institute for Scientific Information Services (NIWI-KNAW) together with the Netherlands Historical Data Archive, which aims to register, document and make accessible digital resources that are relevant for historical research. The two archives co-operate closely and among other things share their documentation system. 2. Dataset P0061 in the Steinmetz Archives 2.1 The transfer of the punch cards to the Steinmetz Foundation In 1969, Statistics Netherlands loaned the punch cards resulting from the 1960 census to the Steinmetz Foundation (see appendix 3). The cards were transferred to the storage rooms of the University of Amsterdam, where they remained until the early 1970s. Although not the owner of the material, the Steinmetz Foundation was still responsible for its preservation. Several unsuccessful attempts were made to have the punch cards digitised and their data stored on tape. An application for a grant from the Nederlandse Organisatie voor Zuiver Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, ZWO was turned down in Neither Statistics Netherlands nor the Sociaal Wetenschappelijke Raad, SWR, were able to provide the Steinmetz Foundation with sufficient means to perform the digitisation before the cards were to be destroyed, either by time or by a lack of means to maintain them in storage. It was only after the Steinmetz Foundation became part of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1972 and changed its name to Steinmetz Archives that with the help of the University, that wished to reclaim its storage space, the digitisation process could finally take off. 2.2 The reading of the punch cards In order to accommodate for the use and preservation of the data stored on over 11 million punch cards, one card per person, these cards had to be read and their data stored on 7 tapes as ASCII files. The reading was performed mostly in 1973 at the Stichting Academisch Rekencentrum Amsterdam, SARA, where one punch card reader had been made available for this project. Students were hired for the transportation of the boxes with punch cards to and from the reader, and for the reading of the individual cards. An interview with Henk Schrik, a former Steinmetz Archives employee, who was involved at that time but sadly died in 2003, made clear that this process was far from flawless, and that time pressure was very high (see also appendix 8). Cards had to be clean, smooth, free of dust and dry, to enable them to be read. As a matter of fact a considerable number of cards had become moist during the many years in various storage locations. At times they were even attached to other cards: those cards were discarded. In addition a punch card reader did not treat its cards very 3

4 delicately. A considerable number of cards was destroyed during the process of being read, thereby blocking the machine, which then caused the following of cards, sometimes even up to ten, to be demolished as well. Sadly, the cards, which have not been read in the end, have not been documented either. Whereas problems with the reading of the cards account for a certain number of missing individuals, there is an even more striking problem with missing boxes. The boxes with the punch cards were ordered alphabetically by municipality within each province. Within the municipalities cards for men and women were kept separately. It was therefore not difficult to notice that some boxes were missing and have not been read. This accounts for a number of municipalities not appearing in the digital census at all, and some other municipalities missing all its women. However, there is again no documentation on boxes, which were at the time already suspected to have been excluded in this manner, or on how this could have happened. On the other hand, one must not forget that the computer time needed on the SARA mainframe computer to investigate fully the extent of the problems of this enormous dataset in the early Seventies, was far beyond the available budget Cleaning and other file operations performed by Steinmetz Archives In 1995 the Steinmetz Archives converted the data, which were still being stored in 7 ASCII files to SPSS. The data had been requested for research, and the aim was to create separate SPSS files per province, which together formed data set P0061. In order to do so, the ASCII files were read and split into 13 separate files on the basis of the value of the 4 th variable, the province code. Those records, that did not have a documented value for the 4 th variable, were stored in a separate text file with the name of the original ASCII file and the extension.rst. The province files, which had been created in this manner, were then treated individually. At first the clean records were separated from those, which had been contaminated in some way or other, or which were in fact not census data at all. This action was performed according to the following criteria, which are described as somewhat arbitrary by Harry Heemskerk of the Steinmetz Archives (see appendix 5). However, he does not give any further explanation for this judgement and no code-book (see appendix 9) from Statistics Netherlands with these requirements can be found at present: A record contains at least 30 and at most 80 positions The value at the 30 th position concerning the year of birth is the last obligatory value. A punch card can not contain more than 80 positions. The only values allowed at the 80 th position are either blank or & No further explanation can be found, nor is this value used in any way. Positions 1-9, 29 and 30 must have a value, not blank. Position 28 may be blank. These positions contain obligatory values, which apply to every person in the census The only value allowed at the first position is 1 This value was punched automatically A record contains only the codes 0-9, blank, & and -. An exception is made for the 22 nd position, which may contain any character. In theory, only numeric and empty values are allowed. & and - are also used to represent additional numeric values, such as 10, 11, 12, although this value may vary for different position. This is described in the documentation from Statistics Netherlands. Because many alphanumeric values were found at the 22 nd position, it was decided not to discard records containing these values. Their appearance is undocumented and not in accordance with 4

5 the code-book information (see appendix 6). See appendix 1 for further information on the values at this position in the province of Zuid-Holland. Records, which were excluded for not meeting the criteria mentioned above, were stored in a separate ASCII file with the name p code for the province + extension.rst (e.g. P0061a.rst). The remaining set was converted to SPSS files, which are still available. As part of this conversion wild-codes (ie. undocumented codes) were re-coded to the codes unknown : 99, 990, 9900, and This concerns all positions containing, -, or &, where these values were not expected. Remaining empty values ( ) were re-coded to the codes not applicable : 98, 980, 9800, and It should, however, be noted that the check on wild-codes was not complete. As a result of the fact that code-book information was not always considered to be clear (see appendix 6), some codes may have been wild-codes, but have not been re-coded as such. At this time it also became apparent that some municipalities were not complete and that the city of The Hague contained many duplicates, but no further actions was taken. Repke de Vries of the Steinmetz Archives concluded in his study (appendix 7) that the methods for cleaning and splitting the original ASCII files gave no reason for further investigation of the.rst files with the discarded records. One did not expect to find any useful data to account for otherwise missing records. 3. State of the data in Checks carried out in the present project Check on cleaning operations by the Steinmetz Archives - The check on the discarded records resulted in a list of some 3200 records, with which something may well be wrong, but which do not differ much from the records surrounding them in the original ASCII files. Sometimes obligatory values are not present; sometimes variables may have an alphanumeric or other unexpected value, causing them to have been rejected. Considering all that may go wrong with the making, storing and reading of punch cards and with medium refreshment, the output of the rigid criteria for discarding faulty records may have been given a second chance. Attempts to reconstruct these records on the basis of those surrounding them could be a rewarding exercise. In addition, even if the incorrect value can not be reconstructed, all the other correct values in a record may well make its data worth preserving. For instance, a record with an invalid municipality code, which is otherwise correct and which is surrounded by others that do have valid codes, should without any doubt have the same code. The order of the records has not been changed: all data belonging to one municipality are grouped together making, enabling us to reconstruct municipality codes, which contain flaws. Example: W It is not clear, nor is there any form of documentation on why the code unknown has only been applied by the Steinmetz Archives to unexpected occurrences of the values, & and - (section 2.5), and not to unexpected occurrences of other values. The fact that one considered the code book information unclear (appendix 6) in the matter of wild-codes, suggests that improvements may still be made. 5

6 In addition it appears that the re-coding of the wild-codes can not always have been applied correctly. For instance, more than 60% of all records have been given the code unknown, 99, for the variable AAard the manner for commuting to work. As this is roughly the percentage of the population, that does not work, one would expect a code not applicable instead. 60% of the population having an unexpected code is so unlikely, that some mistake must have been made. Inspection of the ASCII files renders cases of invalid codes for Aard forensisme in the province of Zuid-Holland. The code unknown is in other variables very sparsely used, so that even is extraordinarily high, but it is much worse: there are records in the SPSS files with a code 99. In fact, only five of the records actually concern working people. What has happened? Has 99 been inserted, where it should have been 98? This code does not occur one single time, although it should have been applied to every person without work. Example: code 99 in Zuid-Holland Variable Occurences of code 99 gemeenteonderdeel 354 typologie geboortegemeente 7 burgelijke staat 4 nationaliteit 3 periode van vestiging 5 reden tijdelijke afwezigheid 38 faculteit en hoofdvak 4 bedrijfsklasse 5 beroep 9 aard forensisme werkprovincie en -gemeente sociale groep 3 Recommendation: the 3200 discarded records should be viewed again to make sure that those, which are suitable for reconstruction, would be added to the dataset. A new, additional, code for unexpected values should be created, to be distinguished from the 99 used by the Steinmetz Archive. 3.2 Other errors and possible sources of error Program code in the raw data Right in the middle of the data records of the city of Den Bosch some 270 lines of Fortran code were be found, preceded by command lines for the operation of a computer; it appears to be a programme written by Rinus Deurloo in The author himself wrote in an that he suspected that his programme must have been run in between the reading of the other punch cards without the use of file-separators (EOF cards), which should have prevented his cards from being mixed up with those belonging to the census. As there is no problem with missing records in Den Bosch, is seems unlikely that the programme code has been inserted instead of data records. It just seems to be an unwanted addition. Although some incidental lines of code may also be found at other locations, they are never again as numerous as the code described above, and as a result their source can not be traced either. Recommendation: these lines of code are to be discarded; it seems unlikely that they have taken the place of proper records and can further be ignored. 6

7 Program code at the end of data records Parts of code of unknown origin can also be found at the end of lines, which seem to contain census records belonging to the cities of Haarlem and Den Helder. It is not clear how the code was created at this location. However, considering their location among other records of the same city, which have not been polluted, and the similarities between them, it seems likely that these are in fact proper census records with regards to the positions which have not been afflicted. Example: B"("N3=")"5ZD,10B SC2+NSC3); ",/")"); B"("N3=")"5ZD,10B 1790 Recommendation: the values in these records, that have not been polluted are kept, the others will receive a wild-code, so that the cleaned records can be added to the dataset. Unspecified/wrong bytes or undocumented/unknown codes Not all rejected records consist of or contain substantial amounts of code. In many cases we only found one or two incorrect values (see criteria mentioned in section 2.5). The most occurring values are: <, /, A, D, S, T, U V, W, X, Y, Z (see appendix 1). Although it is tempting to try to find above all some consistency, the sheer size of the data files has so far encumbered our research into this matter. The following questions, however, do remain of some importance: Which values appear most often At which position do they appear Which numeric value do they then most likely represent (if this could be deducted by looking at the surrounding records)? For the province of Zuid-Holland, we found 311 occurrences of records, which had been polluted in this way. Considering the cases, where the correct value can be deducted from those in the surrounding records, it seems to be a matter of the following pattern: < seems to represent 1 A seems to represent 1 S seems to represent 2 V seems to represent 5 W seems to represent 6 Z seems to represent 9 Example: W However, there are some occurrences where the faulty values clearly must represent 0, based om possible values for these positions and based on the surrounding records. There are also many occurrences of records in which these values can not be deducted at all, or at least not with sufficient certainty. Recommendation: a wild code for these unexpected values should be used, so that these records can be added to the dataset. 7

8 Correctly rejected records Attempts to reconstruct values in rejected records should not draw away attention from the fact that some records were in fact correctly rejected. In some cases, such as records polluted with programme code, this is obvious at a glance. In some other cases, however, the rejected records have a structure similar to that of proper records, but contain values, which are not in correspondence with the code-book (see appendix 9) such as municipality codes, that do not exist. There is a group of some 85 records, all together, starting with Y. The structure seems fine and so do the values apart from the first value, which is not correct, and the municipality code (bold), which does not exist. Our hypothesis is that this must be a case of some form of similarly structured data, which have been read into the wrong file. Recommendation: these records should remain outside the datset. Nothing will be done. Double records From correspondence between Steinmetz Archives and Statistics Netherlands found in the Steinmetz Archives documentation it had already appeared that the census contained an additional men for the city of The Hague, because some records had been entered twice. Closer examination of these records showed that about 30% of all records were duplicates; by comparison, the other large cities, Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Utrecht contain about 2% to 3,5% duplicates among their men. In between each of the duplicates of The Hague there were always exactly records. This suggests that the first records had been entered again later on, and should be discarded. Not so elaborately documented are many other duplicates. The city of Den Bosch has about additional men, records that can be traced in the same way as those in the case of The Hague. Comparison between the number of available records and the number of men and women recorded in the publications of the census made clear that in the case of a few other municipalities men, women, or even both (in the municipalities Hoevelaken, Kuinre, Horssen, Heumen) have been entered twice. Recommendation: duplicate records that can be traced should be discarded. Missing municipalities As described in section 2.2, people involved in the reading of the punch cards, already noticed at that time that several boxes had accidentally not been processed. Of the minimal documentation made during the process, no trace is to be found at present. As the boxes were ordered alphabetically by municipality per province, one would expect to find the missing municipalities in alphabetical order, which is in fact the case. Whole groups of boxes, which were grouped together, must have been overlooked in some manner. They comprise the provinces and municipalities mentioned in appendix 2. Recommendation: with the help of data entry data for these municipalities should be obtained. Missing men/women Inspection of the ASCII files makes clear that per municipality (or part of a municipality in the cases of Amsterdam and The Hague) the punch cards of the men were read first and then those of the women. As they were not separated on the spot, men and women must therefore have been separated and set apart before. This must also be the reason why it can be the case that in some municipalities all the women are missing (Havelte, Denekamp, Enkhuizen). Whereas the boxes containing men have been read, those containing women could have been left out, either by accident, or because of some form of damage. If a box was full of cards, which were crumpled or 8

9 stuck together due to moist, no effort was made to rescue the possibly very few cards, which may still have been suitable to be read (see appendix 8). Recommendation: with the help of data entry data for these municipalities should be obtained. One or more missing records Due to the fact that the punch card reader could only handle single dry, and smooth cards, which were free of dust, there were regular occurrences of cards, which had to be discarded, or even blocked the machine. These accidents caused the following cards to be destroyed by the card reader as well. Time pressure and the enormity of the process took their toll: there is, sadly, no documentation on these individual cards or their numbers, nor were attempts made to recover and read them after all. In the end, about 50% of all municipalities have a few people missing, but without documentation it will not be possible to find out exactly how many of these were lost due to problems with the punch card reader. Recommendation: with the help of data entry data for these municipalities should be obtained, if the numbers of missing record are very large. Otherwise weighting should be an option. 3.3 Frequencies of men and women by municipalities In 1960 there were 995 municipalities. In 402 out of these, the number of women in the electronic dataset was exactly the same as the number of women in the published census. We assume that for these municipalities the dataset is correct. For 13 municipalities the number of records in the dataset is too large, and for 580 municipalities one or more women were missing. In absolute numbers, most municipalities had only few missing women, viz. 414 municipalities were missing between 1 and 100 women. In 28 municipalities more than 1000 women were missing. In relative terms, 545 municipalities were missing less than 5% of the female population. The missing records appear to occur in all provinces, although in some provinces the problems are greater than in other. In Zuid-Holland there are 13 municipalities with more than 1000 missing women; in Zeeland there are no municipalities with more than 100 missing women and in Limburg there is only one. The Graphs in Appendix 10 give more detail of the situation with respect to the missing and superfluous records for the whole country and by province, both in absolute numbers and in percentages. The municipalities with too many records appear to cluster in a few provinces: 6 of the 13 municipalities with too many female records are in the province of Gelderland. For the men the situation is comparable, although there are some differences. There are only 348 municipalities out of the 995 in which the number of male records is correct. There are 18 municipalities with too many records and 629 municipalities with one or more missing men. Again, Zuid-Holland is the province with the largest number of municipalities with more than 1000 missing records, namely 13. Groningen, Friesland and Utrecht have no municipality with more than 1000 missing men, Drente, Zeeland and Limburg have each one. The number of correct records is highest in Zeeland and lowest in Friesland, where in 80% of the municipalities one ore more male records are missing Other possible flaws in the data Although there is most of the time no possibility to find out anymore, one should not overlook the fact that numeric values may be incorrect as well. Most of the values that led to unexpected codes for the Aard forensisme variable in the province of Zuid-Holland, which have been mentioned in section 3.1.1, are in fact numeric. Although they are sometimes unlikely to be traced, polluted values are as likely to be replaced by numeric as by alphanumeric values. 9

10 Recommendation: wrong values that can be traced will either either be reconstructed, if possible, or otherwise be given a wild code. 4. Recommendations for reconstruction At first it was decided to take the municipality as our work unit. Within the municipalities, men and women are treated seperately by us, as they were by Statistics Netherlands, when they structured their census data. In order to facilitate a reconstruction of the census data, we can distinguish four categories of municipalities. 1. Municipalities with the correct number of male and female records 2. Municipalities with too many records 3. Missing municipalities 4. Municipalities with too few records 1. This is by far the easiest category. There may be some cases of individual values, which are very obviously incorrect (such as the example in section 3.2.3) and may be reconstructed, if possible; otherwise no work can be done. 2. In this category it will be necessary to deal with men and women separately, as their punch cards have also been stored and read separately: a municipality may have the correct number of male records, but an incorrect number of women. There are four options, which will be treated in the same way for both men and women. Their margins have been chosen because they render a manageable amount of work, and as we see it, sufficient accuracy. Exactly twice the required number of records (200%) All records that have been entered for the second time can be deleted Nearly twice the required number of records ( %) Unique records will be separated; all records that have been entered for the second time can be deleted. If these actions result in a municipality with too few records, the recordset can be treated accordingly (see below). Far too many records ( %) If a pattern can be found in the way records have been read twice, those double records can be deleted. Polluted or incorrect records, which would have been deleted by the Steinmetz cleaning operations, can also be deleted. Numbers of records for other variables (such as age) may help to find out, which other records can be deleted. A few too many records ( %) Polluted or incorrect records, which would have been deleted by the Steinmetz cleaning operations, will be deleted. Numbers of records for other variables (such as age) may help to find out, which other records can be deleted. If these actions result in a municipality with too few records, the records set can be treated accordingly (see below). Problems, which can not be solved, should be left and documented. 3. For the missing municipalities census data can be entered manually from the: Hand-written tables These were made from the individual census cards Published tables For these data were derived from the hand-written tables, which are mentioned above, and from the puch cards, which could be sorted and counted in many combinations 10

11 Needless to say that the hand-written tables provide more detailed information. On the other hand, these tables are not only less suitable for any form of optical character recognition than the published version, but more information will also cause more dataentry. Considering the number of flaws in the output of optical character recognition based on a test with printed text and the value of additional information from the hand-written tables, we recommend that the latter be used for manual data entry. An exception will be made for the very elaborate information on how people commute to work (tables 21 to 24), which would be very time consuming. Additionally, more research could be done into the possibility of reconstructing fictional, individual records from the information in these tables. The aim will be that the data for these municipalities can be searched and presented in the same way as for the other municipalities. 4. As we no longer have the punch cards, it is impossible to have all missing records reconstructed, but in some cases it will be necessary to give an alternative for a record set containing large gaps. We have not only taken into account the actual number of records missing, but also the relative impact of these numbers. That is to say, 500 records missing in a small village have more priority for reconstruction than 500 missing records in a large city. Nonetheless, truly large numbers of missing records in larger cities can not be overlooked either. As a result, three groups of municipalities, that have records missing, can be distinguished. Up to 100 records and less than 1% of men or women missing No further action will be taken. 100 to 1000 records or 1% to 5% of men or women missing Lists with factors for weighting for age and gender can be given, so that with these reserachers can make their own attempts to reconstruct what type of records could be missing. More than 1000 or more than 5% of men or women missing Data from the hand-written tables will be entered in the same way as for the missing municipalities to supplement the available data from the current dataset. This concerns about 30 municipalities (see appendix 4). Problems, which can not be solved, and records, which will not be reconstructed, should be left and documented. 5. Recommendations for publication One of the main assets of this dataset for historical research is the fact that it contains individual records. Valuable as they may be, the hand-written and the published tables, whether they are digital or not, restrict the questions a researcher will be able to ask. Additionally the tables would either due to their sheer size be unsuitable for direct online publication, or would have to be split into many sub-tables, which makes them less suitable for research: a researcher would have to put them back together again before being able to do any queries. The fact that individual records from the 1971 census will also be available soon makes publication on micro level even more valuable. Although the dataset is not complete and never will be, it has become clear over the last year that this is in fact the case with many historical censuses, and the relatively low number of missing records has in other cases not been a reason for not publishing the data. At the 2003 Conference of the Association for History and Computing, which was attended by historians from several countries working with census data, there was consensus that this particular dataset is very valuable indeed, provided that thorough documentation will be given on which data are available 11

12 and which are not. The additional tables containing information on municipalities, which are missing or lack substantial numbers of records, can be considered as a very useful bonus. As for the confidentiality of part of the information in the dataset, much work has already been done for the 1971 census. The most consistent solution would be to opt for the same form of publication: a randomised set of data for researches to download and view freely in order to formulate queries. These queries can be treated by remote execution on the data, which would ideally be located on the Central Bureau of Statistics premises as well as the 1971 census. 12

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