Each member of the Blue Jay organization must be sitting together in a room and laughing hysterically that their sleight of hand trick is taking hold.

Early in the off-season Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, while stating that he was looking to add a starting pitcher—and while everyone in baseball, including sportswriters and fans, agreed that they needed an addition—insisted that because of the organization’s pitching depth the addition of a veteran starter would be a luxury.

Now after months of speculation, and absolutely no activity, their message is beginning to take hold. People are beginning to believe that the Jays actually do have enough pitching depth and don’t need to sign another starter.

Don’t believe it.

The message is strictly a fake-out, meant as a cover if one of their desired starters falls through their fingers. If that occurs then the Jays could say that they indeed looked into signing a starter but in the end believed that their core of young talent was too strong and a free-agent addition would only stunt the growth of their young talent.

It is also a message of confidence sent to their young starters—that the organization believes in them.

Internally, however, the Jays know that the best scenario for their young starters is to at least begin the season in AAA. Ideally the rotation in Buffalo will be Sean Nolin, Marcus Stroman, Kyle Drabek, Drew Hutchison and Ricky Romero. Highly touted prospect Aaron Sanchez will begin the season in AA.

With four established major league pitchers in the Jays rotation—RA Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle and JA Happ—there is obviously one spot open. That spot is targeted for an established major league pitcher. For the Jays that spot can be filled by either Ubaldo Jimenez of Earvin Santana.

If one of their prospects comes to spring training and pitches lights out then they can decide what to do with Happ, since he is number five in the rotation depth chart. But the Jays would like their prospects to pitch in the minors for at least half the season no matter how impressive they look in the spring.

As I have maintained throughout this off-season it will be a tremendous upset if the Jays don’t sign one of their desired free agent pitchers. Which one? That’s irrelevant. Both Jimenez and Santana have strengths and weaknesses—and when matched against each other their pros and cons balance out.

Jimenez has a greater upside. He has the power to dominate and in the AL East power arms are always desirable. But Jimenez can also be inconsistent—he can lose his arm slot in a moment’s notice and lose track of the strike zone. He is also more of a 180 inning pitcher—the likelihood is that he will miss a start or two through the season.

Santana is much more consistent. He is a definite 200 inning pitcher who will take the ball every fifth day. While not possessing the power of Jimenez he can strike batters out with a combination of pitches. The downside is that Santana has a propensity for giving up the long ball—which at the Rogers (Homer) Dome would be seriously problematic.

So both pitchers come with strengths but both come with weaknesses. Neither is capable of being a staff ace and shouldn’t be paid like one. When the off-season began both Santana and Jimenez believed they deserved to be paid like an ace—they each turned down their team’s $14 million qualifying offer. Each believed they had earned a four or five year contract at between $80 and $100 million.

Each looked at two contracts for pitchers they believed were comparable—Anibal Sanchez signed with Detroit for five years and $80 million last off-season and five years ago AJ Burnett signed with the Yankees for five years and $82.5 million. These are the contracts each one of Santana and Jimenez believed to be starting points for them.

However as the off-season progressed each found that they were not in that salary category. As well each had draft pick compensation attached to them—the anchor for having been offered qualification by their previous team. Now whichever team signed them would have to give up a first round draft choice—and these days draft picks are gold (unless it’s the Yankees).

The Blue Jays have two early first round selections—the second of which is compensation for not signing last year’s first round pick—and both picks are protected, so signing either free agent will only cost the Jays a second round selection. This puts the Jays in the driver’s seat. While all other teams have to balance out the positives of adding one of those two starters against the negative of losing a first round pick the Jays do not have that issue.

The Jays have a number in mind—of years and dollars—which they have attached to both Santana and Jimenez. Since no other team has stepped to the forefront and made a serious offer for either pitcher the Jays are simply waiting until either’s salary desire drops to meet their own.

It has been speculated that the Jays are willing to offer up to four year contract of around $60 million—but the likelihood is that Jays would prefer only a three year commitment. They may be able to get away with a three year contract if they offer a fourth year that will be guaranteed if the pitcher meets certain criteria—such as innings pitched either over the three years or just in the third year.

The danger, of course, in playing the waiting game is that some other team comes in at the last second and steals the player. It would be a terrible scenario if the Jays, having played it out throughout the off-season, are close to landing their fish, only to have a shark steal their catch right out of their boat.

Can you say Yankees?

Otherwise, the Jays are simply waving a contract into the air and saying that the first player who agrees to sign will be a Blue Jay. And they are willing to wait until they have a winner.

Thoughts that arise in me…

…The Blue Jays are trying not to show their fan base hat they are concerned about the payroll increase. They already have Buehrle, who will earn $37 million over the next two years, as an egregiously overpaid player. Worse, there is the dropping value of the Loonie, and that it will continue to lose weight compared to the US dollar. The Jays could move Buehrle after this year, and likely have to eat some salary, but the issue regarding the Canadian dollar is a serious one. The Jays have commented on the dropping value of the dollar saying that they are already committed to the salary structure for the coming year but it could be an impediment in years to come. So if the Jays are not competitive this year we may see the Jays start dumping salary before next season.

…It’s really nice how the Olympic committee has added a bunch of sports to their winter line-up—sports that benefit Canada. Slopestyle skiing has been a boon to our medal count.

…Michael Sam has announced that he is gay. Sam desires a pro career in the NFL and decided to make the pronouncement before the draft. Here’s hoping the myopic minds that are everywhere in sport don’t affect the young man’s ability to play professional sports.

…This has to be the last year that this present incarnation of the Vancouver Canucks remains intact. The Canucks have been dropping steadily since losing in the NHL finals in 2011and are in serious danger of missing the playoffs entirely this year. A major overhaul and rebuild is in the cards.

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