Probability / conditional probability

In your opinion, the best outcome would be to have the communications contract awarded to your company but to have the construction contract awarded to a different company. This is not because you are fond of your competition, but instead because if you were to win both, the result would place some strain on your (relatively) small firm's resources. Of course, if the construction contract were the only one you received, it would be good for the firm. You have placed subjective probabilities of 0.60 and 0.45 on the communications and construction contracts respectively, and believe that these events may be considered statistically independent for the purpose of these calculations.

---Given that you are awarded at least one contract, find the conditional probability that (in particular) you are awarded the communications contract. This may not be as straightforward as it might appear.

Solution Preview

Probability / conditional probability
---I need help in how to do this problem.

In your opinion, the best outcome would be to have the communications contract awarded to your company but to have the construction contract awarded to a different company. This is not because you are fond of your competition, but instead because if you were to win both, the result would place some strain on your (relatively) small firm's resources. Of course, if the construction contract were the only one you received, it would be good for the firm. You have placed subjective probabilities of 0.60 and 0.45 on the communications and construction contracts ...

Solution Summary

Probability and conditional probability are examined for a communication contract. Given that the company is awarded at least one contract, the expert determines the conditional probability that the company is awarded the communications contract.