U.S. politics is locked in cycle of sharp swings from left to right

THOMAS TASCHINGER

Published
12:00 am CST, Saturday, February 6, 2010

Henny Youngman once made a memorable observation about comedy: "Timing is everything." It applies to politics too.

Right now, it is a good time to be a Republican candidate. Republicans have won races such as the governor's job in New Jersey and a Senate seat in Massachusetts, accomplishments that are rare in those heavily Democratic states.

Those upsets, of course, are backlashes to blunders by President Obama and a Democratic Congress. And the reason Democrats hold the White House and both houses of Congress is that in November 2008, it was a good time to be a Democratic candidate. (See Youngman, Henny; timing.)

It wasn't always this way. From the presidencies of FDR to Jimmy Carter, Democrats usually controlled one or both houses of Congress and maybe the White House too. In 1980, the mood swings begun with Ronald Reagan's victory and a GOP takeover of the Senate.

In 1994, Republicans even took control of the House and Senate - in a sharp backlash to Bill Clinton's rocky start. In 2008, Democrats surged back into power via voters who were tired of presidents named Bush.

Now it looks as if this year's mid-term elections could be a replay of '94. Whew!

The clear pattern here is that voters get disgusted with one party and replace it with another. You would think that the party in power would notice the trend and try to remain on top. Apparently, that is too difficult for Democrats and Republicans, who take turns handing over the keys to the front door to each other.

The trend is likely to continue. Any party that tries to govern in Washington is going to run into two huge roadblocks:

A) Few moderates survive in Congress, so it's hard for both sides to compromise. Most Democrats are pretty liberal, and most Republicans are pretty conservative. In the House, this is because most states have gerrymandered districts that are "safe" for one party or the other. Thus in primary elections, when only Democrats or Republicans are choosing candidates, moderates tend to get edged out by true believers.

B) Mind-boggling deficits have erased all the easy choices. It is no longer possible to fund everything both parties want without making scary deficits even worse. We've actually crossed the threshold of yearly deficits that exceed $1 trillion! The only way to avoid complete ruination - and it may already by too late - is for Congress to say "no" to some interest group or segment of voters.

That scenario will eventually produce a voter backlash from either soaring deficits (to help Republicans) or ticked-off factions such as seniors or labor (to help Democrats)

So if your party is out of power and you'd like to change that unfortunate circumstance, just wait. The bus is headed your way.

But don't get too comfortable, because it won't be long before you're on the outside looking in again.