Obama comes close, but doesn’t take the Cuban vote in Florida

David Axelrod, President Barack Obama’s senior advisor, seems to think that Cuban-Americans in Florida have firmly shifted their allegiances to Democrats even though that slice of the Hispanic community in the Sunshine State has been devoted to Republicans for years, but it appears he was slightly off base.

Axelrod tweeted earlier on Thursday: “Interesting footnote to election: In FL, POTUS carried the Cuban-American vote–something a D hasn’t done for more than half a century.”

Ana Navarro, a Republican strategist and contributor to CNN responded quickly with her own tweet: “Obama did well w/FL Latinos. But notion he carried Cuban vote is wrong. [Republican challenger Mitt] Romney could not get 38% of Miami-Dade w/o being in 60%’s w/Cubans.”

Who’s right? Well, it seems Axelrod jumped the gun — but maybe just a little bit. While Obama has made huge inroads in bringing the Cuban-American vote his way, he didn’t quite get over the hump this time around, according to the Miami Herald. The newspaper said on its web site Thursday that Obama got the majority of votes from ballots tabulated on Election Day, but Romney had staked out a wide lead among absentee ballots and early voters. Citing surveys, the paper said Romney won the overall Cuban-American vote, 52-48. See story here.

Still, if the next Democratic candidate for president can continue that momentum, it would represent a demographic shift of the highest order. Republicans have won the hearts of Florida Cuban-Americans since the Fidel Castro regime took power in Cuba in 1959. Older Cuban-Americans have through the years identified with the GOP’s tough stance on Communism. It’s estimated that in some elections, nearly three-fourths of Miami-Dade County Cuban Americans have voted Republican.

George W. Bush retained Cuban-American voting blocs in Floridan that were in the 70s for both his elections. Obama lost the Cuban-American vote to Sen. John McCain by 53-47. Romney’s win among the Cuban-American community in Florida represents a further slide in support for Republicans. The theory is Cuban-Americans that have supported the GOP in past elections are generally older, while younger Cuban-Americans are voting more Democratic.

“Obama is picking the Republican lock in Florida,” the newspaper quoted pollster Fernand Amandi as saying.