Friday, December 31, 2010

2011 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins

The 2010 Twins survived without Joe Nathan, but given that they’re losing most of their bullpen to free agency (Bill Smith acquired relievers last summer at a rate that would make Eddie wade blush), they really need to have him back as the team hasn’t really done much to replace the losses.

The team’s done some odd things lately - trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps will very likely come back to bite them and giving minor league free agent Eric Hacker a major-league contract seems rather silly - but the odd things aren’t really the type that are going to hurt the team. Nishioka, however, was an amazing signing ($5 million for the posting plus 3 years, $9 million). I think we’ve gotten to the point that teams are properly appreciating the first-tier of NPB players, but I think there’s still some inefficiency at evaluating the next tier of “good, non-star” players.

There are still concerns about depth in the upper minors, but at least the team’s brought in a few more minor league free agents than usual - players like Steve Holm and Jeff Bailey aren’t starters in the majors but any remote stretch, but it’s nice to have them around and it was something the Twins were really missing on a 2010 Rochester team that didn’t have anyone slug .450 (min. 1 AB).

The Twins should compete as usual, but I don’t think they’re a step ahead of the Tigers or White Sox right now.

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

Yeah, not clear why Kubel doesn't have any defensive ratings -- about 1600 innings in the OF the last 3 years. Or is he just beyond PO? :-) But I'm stunned to learn that Cuddyer has 4 starts in CF the last 3 years.

Not much else to say. Nice comps for Span, nicer than expected comps for Baker (as in those are pretty big names and all really good at various points in their career).

And the Twins have a higher payroll than the Dodgers? The Dodgers should be embarrassed, new stadium revenue or not.

Does that make the HoF? The 121 OPS+ puts him just behind Posada (who has far fewer PA) and just ahead of Fisk and Simmons (who both have about 800 more PA). The 300 BA will help a lot, 2nd to Piazza among non-30s Cs and, by the time Mauer retires, presumably so will the 382 OBP, slightly better than Piazza and Posada. 3 GG should cement the defensive rep barring some sea change in fancy catcher defensive stats (and attitudes towards them). And of course an MVP.

The RBI total isn't particularly impressive, even for a C but I believe that would be a record for runs scored by a C (perhaps depending on how one defines "C"). Current record seems to be Fisk 1276 (using his career total).

The remaining question then is whether he can stay healthy behind the plate. He's got 700 games catching right now, a rather Torre-esque total (837 starts) ... and Torre had a 128 OPS+ and an MVP and 9 AS games. Of course Torre and Simmons might well belong in the HoF.

I'm just surprised the decision (using HoF voting history, not Primer standards) is even this close.

The Matt Capps ERA seems much higher than expected. His ERA the past four years has been 2.28, 3.02, 5.80, and 2.47. With the exception of the unlucky 2009 (xFIP of 4.37), his ERA+ has never been below 140 in the past four years. This projection basically has him as a league average RP, when he has been much better than that over the course of his career.

The Twins spent more than the Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves and Rangers o_o
Small market my ##.

That market was always a sleeping giant. Pretty decent sized metro area, with a good fanbase. They now have their two biggest impediments out of the way - shitty stadium and shitty owner. They will make the transition from small/mid-sized market to "pretty big market" the way Cleveland and Seattle did in the 90s and how Philly and Detroit did in the 00s.

I was surprised Mauer only projects to hit 208 HR. If you'd asked me for a guess, I probably would have said about 400, but he really hasn't been racking them up. Still, going forward that's only about 80% of his HR rate to date (no idea if that's normal...).

On Nishioka: you've got him about where I do offensively, based on stats. Having said that, I'll take the under - I don't think he's a fast as this suggests and is otherwise slappy enough that pitchers will challenge him. As for his D - man, it shouldn't be easier to get data on guys from Cuba than Japan, huh? Naively, those are the same range values I'd give him, but I think he'll be a bit error prone. That comment is strictly based on reading and limited observation, not anything statistical.
One more not on him - here's a tweet from CJ Nitkowski:

I liked this deal for Twins, but the error bars are big enough that he could easily be right (particularly when you add the posting fee into the equation).
---
Unrelated, another CJ tweet taught me that, in Japan, "Jersey Shore" is called "Macaroni Rascals". So, there's that.

One more Nishioka bit - here's his defensive stats for 2010 (led thE PL in errors, po, and assists - in part because he was finally healthy and played every defensive inning for 'em). It's a translated blog entry (japanesebaseball.com ... *please* bring back your stats pages) - scroll to 'Nishioka hardness' to get to his (and the other starting SS) bit.

The Matt Capps ERA seems much higher than expected. His ERA the past four years has been 2.28, 3.02, 5.80, and 2.47. With the exception of the unlucky 2009 (xFIP of 4.37), his ERA+ has never been below 140 in the past four years. This projection basically has him as a league average RP, when he has been much better than that over the course of his career.

Mauer's currently 1,000 starts behind at C which is a lot, especially since he's averaged about 110 per season. If you take a look at the bulk of Simmons' career (dropping the pitiful end and the age 18-20 short stints) you get 8874 PA with a line of 288/350/445, 121 OPS+ in 8874 PA from ages 21-35.

Mauer obviously comes up nicely in this comp on OBP and wins the career OPS+ battle so he's definitely ahead. Does Simmons at least get a reduction in charge to manslaughter?

I'm somewhat nitpicking since you said "that line". Add in Mauer's 300 BA, MVP, GGs and presumably many AS games to come and, from most voters' perspective, he looks not at all like Simmons.

But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive. It's a little better than Simmons (not elected) and Fisk (who probably makes it 1st ballot in any other election), it's worse than Posada (in more PA), it's worse than Berra, it's much worse than Bench. It's oddly equal to Tettleton, much worse than Tenace (not much of a C). :-) If he were to move from C in another 2-3 years, he'd be below Torre.

Like I hinted, the easiest answer to this is that Simmons for sure and Torre probably belong in the HoF. Heck, Porter and Freehan have decent cases and Pudge II will go in of course (or be blackballed).

Part of the "problem" is that, from a hitting perspective, there's not much to distinguish the non-Piazza catchers. It's Gary Carter at 115 up to Cochrane at 128 in OPS+ terms with Simmons, Posada and a few short career guys in-between. Durability (as a C) and defense seem to carry the day in the last 30 years.

Anyway, I remain surprised at how "close" it is. It's not like he projects as the #2 hitting C behind Piazza or anything. Well, not in OPS+ terms probably does in WAR batting. He's got one full-time C behind him in OPS+ who wasn't elected and a part-time C pretty well ahead of him who wasn't elected.

Dan, how does ZiPS handle Japanese imports? The error bars for Nishioka are pretty big, I'm sure, but how much should we trust his median projection (particularly the defense, since I'm not even sure whether you can get sufficiently detailed data from Japanese baseball)?

ZiPS also seems surprisingly bearish on Liriano. I guess his 2008 and 2009 were nothing special, and he has a history of underperforming his xFIP, but I would take the over on a 3.92/109 ERA/ERA+ (not that my opinion really means anything next to that of the finely honed system). So would others, judging by the fan projections on Fangraphs, although what we envision for him next year is skewed by his monster performance FIP-wise this year - er, last year.

But the 121 OPS+ isn't THAT impressive. It's a little better than Simmons (not elected) and Fisk (who probably makes it 1st ballot in any other election), it's worse than Posada (in more PA), it's worse than Berra, it's much worse than Bench. It's oddly equal to Tettleton, much worse than Tenace (not much of a C). :-) If he were to move from C in another 2-3 years, he'd be below Torre.

Berra and Bench are within 1 pt. (125 and 126 OPS+ respectively). That 1 pt. makes Mauer much worse than Bench?

Note his current OPS+ is 136. I'll easily take the over on 121 for his career; doing a quick and dirty examination of HoF catchers shows that most don't suffer that kind of steep dropoff (if they do, they are usually forced to retire before a string of poor seasons drops their peak numbers back down that far). Gary Carter and Piazza did (for his last 3 seasons), but still -15 points is pretty drastic. Of course Mauer is no HoFer (yet), and could undergo the kind of sudden and steep dropoffs around age 30 that we've seen from the likes of Tony Pena or Rich Gedman (Pena's D let him stay in the league, Gedman's didn't).

Note his current OPS+ is 136. I'll easily take the over on 121 for his career; doing a quick and dirty examination of HoF catchers shows that most don't suffer that kind of steep dropoff (if they do, they are usually forced to retire before a string of poor seasons drops their peak numbers back down that far).

There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.

Well, duh. Yogi said it best: "sometimes it's the things that don't matter that make all the difference."*

Not sure what I was thinking. Maybe the language side of my brain said OPS+ but the numbers side was thinking of WAR? Maybe I was thinking Bench caught a lot more than Berra? (except he didn't, I thought Berra spent more time in the OF than that.) Maybe I was just overstating my case?

The important thing is we'll never know

* as far as I know, Yogi never said this.

Note his current OPS+ is 136.

That's sort of what I was getting at. I was expecting "oh man, Mauer is just a stud!" Instead I got something sensible. I'm the official Voice of Reason (tm) on career projections around here and I don't like ZiPS crowding my turf!

There's a lot of selection bias there. Star catchers that age unusually well are more likely to be Hall of Famers than star catchers that don't age well. Mauer's also at very the top end of star catchers through 27 , so risk is fairly one-sided. He wouldn't be alone, Bench retired very early in his decline cycle, while Piazza lost 13 points from age 27 and Fisk lost 20.

Interesting point. Years ago when Kendall was traded to Oakland, I took a look at that (sorta). Those would have been older Cs (Kendall was 31) and I recall that, for most Cs, the offensive decline didn't seem so severe. Fairly standard looking age-based decline from 31 to 33 (the years remaining on Kendall's contract) but I was eyeballing it more than anything. A lot fell off the table durability-wise and a number did both. Kendall took the less familiar path, remaining durable and falling off a cliff offensively (108 OPS+ through age 30, 102 from 28-30 to 77 from 31-33).

Fisk is tougher because he was hurt at 26 and 27 (and 31?) which may have derailed his hitting ... but it kept him from catching which may have helped. One of the entertaining things about my Kendall look was that neither Fisk nor Boone showed up on my list of heavily used Cs through age 30.

Nishioka splits for last year. (not trying to harp on this - found it by accident (trying to find out where D'Antona might go in '11) and figured it was better than a different version of those #s I'd posted somewhere else on this site.)