2014 Draft Prep: Third base profiles

There are few worse feelings in a Fantasy draft than failing to fill a position after there's been a huge dropoff in value between the players taken off the board and the ones left behind. When that happens at third base, taking that step beyond the final elite player will feel like walking off a huge curb that you never saw.

More than at any other position, there is a Grand Canyon-sized abyss separating the top third basemen and the second tier. Miguel Cabrera is miles ahead of the third base pack, and Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre and David Wright are at least several football fields ahead of the remaining third basemen. In Rotisserie formats, Wright projects to add nearly 15 places in the cumulative standings to your team's existing roster, while the next-best option, Josh Donaldson, would add just shy of 13 places. A difference of two places in the cumulative standings may not sound like much, but it's the largest such gap between elites and a second tier for any position.

The third base elite grows by one in Head-to-Head formats, as Matt Carpenter's low strikeout rate, high walk rate and healthy doubles total are enough for him to keep company with Longoria, Beltre and Wright (though most owners would probably use him at second base anyway). In either format, though, owners will take a big hit if they address their third base need too soon after the Big Four (or Five, if you count Carpenter) are claimed.

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Still, the position offers some solid fallback options, as long as you don't reach for them. Even with some mild regression, Donaldson can turn in a solid season -- one that should be slightly better than Ryan Zimmerman's 2013 campaign. Martin Prado provides multi-positional eligibility and Kyle Seager offers steady, if not eye-popping, production. Chase Headley and Brett Lawrie have had better days, but both are still young enough to rebound (Lawrie especially). Whether or not they look poised to do it is something I'll address further below. If the proven veterans don't excite you or get drafted too early, there's always the upside potential presented by early-twenty-somethings Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts.

As with every position, third base presents its share of players who are difficult to project, due to inconsistency or inexperience. This sample of projection profiles begins with Longoria, whose stats were not actually all that hard to project, but this space seemed as fitting as any to make my case as to why I think he is at least on a par with Beltre and Wright, who get more respect among industry analysts.

After Cabrera is gone, presumably after the first two picks in the draft, it's almost a toss-up among Longoria, Wright and Beltre for second best at the position. I prefer Longoria, since he is a little more consistent and a little less of an injury risk than Wright and six years younger than Beltre.

That said, Longoria is not without his risks. After a three-year trend of reducing strikeouts, Longoria is back to Square One, as his strikeout rate has soared over the last two seasons. Over that span, Longoria has been taking called strikes at the highest rate of his career. While that's a trend to watch, it's encouraging in a way that Longoria's 26 percent strikeout-per-at-bat ratio was skewed by a midseason binge, in which he struck out in exactly one of out of every three at-bats in June and July.

With more typical strikeout rates the rest of the season, Longoria appears set for at least a mild batting average rebound, and that will fuel increases in runs and RBI. He's also practically a lock for 30 home runs, rounding out a picture of a third baseman who projects to be the best and safest alternative outside of the Motor City.

Even since Donaldson seized the A's starting third base job in August 2012, he has been a remarkably consistent source of batting average and home runs. In his first full season, Donaldson ranked as the fourth-most productive third baseman in Fantasy, but can we trust him to repeat? He established himself as a power hitter in three tours at Triple-A, so there is little reason to doubt he can approach last season's 24 home runs and 37 doubles. Over the last three years, both at Oakland and Sacramento, he has made steady reductions in his strikeout rate, so I have projected him to have another season in which he strikes out in less than every fifth at-bat.

Donaldson could still lose value, as he may have a hard time equaling last season's 23 infield hits, given that he doesn't have tremendous speed. A batting average around .280 is a more reasonable expectation than another .300 mark, and that dropoff, along with slightly diminished run production, is enough to knock him well below the likes of Longoria, Beltre and Wright in Roto leagues, and also far behind Carpenter in Head-to-Head formats.

There's really no good way to put a positive face on Headley's 2013 stats. His home run power evaporated, and the usually selective hitter showed signs of living up to his name, increasing his chase rate.

Headley's mysterious dropoff in production finally got an explanation last September when he revealed he had been playing the whole season with a torn meniscus. We may not know how much of a factor the injury was, but in sizing Headley up for Draft Day, the disclosure provides a reason to expect Headley to make at least a partial recovery of his 2012 value, when he hit .286 with 31 home runs, 115 RBI and 17 stolen bases. His projection assumes a partial rebound and could understate Headley's production, should he make a full recovery.

One reason not to bank on Headley repeating his 2012 success is his current injury: a strained calf sustained in late February. While Headley has been making progress throughout spring training, calf injuries have been known to linger. It's just one more reason to temper expectations, leaving Headley on the fringes of the top 10 at third base.

Machado enters 2014 with a world of uncertainty, not only because he is coming off knee surgery, but because his development took an unexpected turn last season. Instead of building on the home run power he displayed as a rookie (seven home runs in 191 at-bats), Machado turned into a line drive hitter in 2013 and eschewed the long ball in favor of doubles. Lots of doubles, 51 of them, 39 of which came before the All-Star break.

Machado's flyball rate did rebound in the second half, and as his line drive rate regressed, the doubles dried up and the homers returned. Since Machado was more of a flyball hitter in the minors than he has been with the Orioles, and given his second-half reversal, owners should look to Machado as more of a power source this season. An increased emphasis on hitting flyballs could dampen Machado's batting average, though a slow or delayed start would also likely limit his chances for a major power breakout.

Since exploding onto the Fantasy scene as a power/speed threat who could hit for average in late 2011, it's largely been a downward spiral of injuries and declining performance for Lawrie. He did provide some hopeful signs last season after returning from a month-and-a-half layoff due to an ankle injury. He struck out just 32 times in 262 at-bats and had made some mild improvement on his ground ball rate, but the end result during that 70-game span -- a .279 batting average with six home runs, 32 RBI, 30 runs and seven stolen bases -- doesn't bode well for a return to his rookie glory.

Lawrie's projection reflects the improvement we can expect in his batting average, though I didn't assume he could maintain his late-season strikeout rate, which was far out of line with prior marks. If he does, he could hit above .290, but we have yet to see meaningful signs that a high average would come with 20-plus home run power. Also, a 22 for 35 conversion rate for steals over the last two years is not a good sign for a comeback in that category. With so much of Lawrie's career clouded by health issues and high ground ball rates, it's hard to see him producing enough to merit more than a late-round pick.

As a prospect, Bogaerts showed he could hit for good power for a shortstop and get on base. Given that he did those things as a 20-year-old in Double-A and Triple-A is impressive, but that doesn't mean he's ready to become the next Troy Tulowitzki just yet. Not only could it take Bogaerts time to adjust the majors, but the sizable dip that his flyball rate took upon moving to Triple-A Pawtucket could foreshadow some struggles to hit for power with the Red Sox. Also, Bogaerts has been a good, but not great, contact hitter, so his higher minor league batting averages have been heavily driven by high BABIP rates he may not be able to sustain going forward.

That leaves Bogaerts with mediocre projections, and at third base, they leave him out of the top 20. At shortstop, he would squeeze just inside the top 20 in Head-to-Head formats and falling just short in Roto formats. Since it's almost a certainty that Bogaerts will gain shortstop eligibility, he is worth a flier in standard mixed leagues that have a MI slot.

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(12:34 pm ET)Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said Tuesday that while Brett Cecil has the ability to close, he might not serve as the team's closer, the National Post reports.

"He could do it. He might not. It might be somebody else," Gibbons said.

The manager also raised the possibility of using multiple closers.

"It could be one of those deals where one night he might be closing, the other night he might have to come in at the end of the seventh or eighth inning," Gibbons said.

Despite the face that Gibbons hasn't deemed Cecil his closer, he did praise his pitching ability Tuesday.

"He’s got some overpowering stuff," Gibbons said. "He’s a lefty and I don’t think there’s a better curveball out there. He can throw it for strikes, he can bring it down low in the zone and bounce it for a strikeout. That’s kind of his go-to pitch. He doesn’t rattle. He’s pretty confident and calm when he’s out there."

Cecil went 2-3 with a 2.70 ERA, 76:27 K:BB ratio and five saves in 53 1/3 innings in 2014. He owns a 11.1 career K/9 rate in relief.

(12:23 pm ET)White Sox catcher Geovany Soto said he is feeling good after being limited to 78 games the last two seasons due to injuries. He missed time in 2014 because of arthroscopic surgery on his left foot and a torn meniscus in his right knee.

"I love where I'm at," Soto said, per The Chicago Tribune. "My legs feel great. My whole body feels great. I'm just anxious to get started and show these guys what I can do, hopefully stay healthy and break camp."

Ryu is dealing with a back injury, but has been throwing the last couple of days without pain. At this point, Ryu remains without a timetable for his first spring game. He went 14-7 in 2014 with a 3.38 ERA and 139 strikeouts in 152 innings pitched last season.

(12:15 pm ET)Astros manager A.J. Hinch indicated that the team is likely to use a seven-man bullpen this season, leaving two spots open for competition this spring, the Houston Chronicle reports.

"Likely," Hinch said of a seven-man bullpen. "There’s always a chance that (changes) depending on how the schedule plays out, and there’s always a debate on how many pitchers to carry during interleague. Now interleague is pretty much year round, so I mean, in a perfect world with our roster, it’s likely to carry a seven-man ‘pen. If we feel like we need an extra pitcher or injury happens, there’s different ways to shape our roster, then we will, but likely 12."

The two open spots will likely be filled by a left-handed pitcher and a long reliever. The competition for the second lefty in the pen likely comes down to Kevin Chapman and nonroster invitees Joe Thatcher and Darin Downs. The long relief role has a broader list of candidates, including Alex White and Asher Wojciechowski, who will prepare both as starters and relievers.

"We’re going to stretch out a lot of our guys," Hinch said. "Some of them are because they’re competing in that fifth starter spot, some of them are bullpen guys. Will Harris is going to throw multiple innings. Obviously (Sam) Deduno has been a starter in the past, he’s in a competition for the fifth man spot. Wojo, White, those guys are going to need to, going to plan for the season on both fronts, whether it’s a starter or reliever. But we’re preaching multiple innings. It’s important if you have a seven-man bullpen that you have a couple of guys that can get four, five, six outs if needed and be a bridge to the rest of the bullpen."

Rangers' Tolleson: 'I'd like to be that bridge' between starters, closersby Igor Mello | CBSSports.com

(12:10 pm ET)The Nationals are faced with a tough decision when it comes to outfield prospect Michael Taylor, who appears to be on the cusp of being ready for a regular role at the major-league level.

A major issue is playing time since the Nationals have a starting outfield of Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper and Denard Span. Taylor would be a solid fourth outfielder, but having him coming off the bench is not ideal for his development.

“It’s the same age-old decision that must be made regarding guys that are just on the cusp of being big-league ready and everyday players,” manager Matt Williams said, per NatsInsider.com. “And a question of depth on your team, too. … It’s a question of depth on your team, it’s a question of how much playing time they’re really going to get, and are they better served staying in the minor leagues and getting those at-bats until their opportunity arises. But Mike’s close. He’s really close.”

(12:06 pm ET)Nationals pitcher Aaron Barrett worked on strengthening his shoulder and legs in the offseason to improve his longevity throughout the entire season. Barrett admitted he wasn't used to a full major-league schedule, which contributed to him feeling "tired" in the middle of his rookie season.

"I'm ready for a full season," Barrett said. "Last year was a long season for me. It was my first year up. I had a lot of appearances, a lot of warm-ups and stuff like that. I think that is part of the process of coming up and working on that. I did as much training as I possibly could for this year."

(12:06 pm ET)Rockies infielder Daniel Descalso is ready to fill the role of versatile veteran who can play second base, third base or shortstop as needed, the Denver Post reports.

"I'll be ready for whatever comes my way," Descalso said Monday. "It's been a while since I've played just one position for any length of time, so I've worked hard to reach a comfort level at all three spots. I have an idea of what it takes to stay sharp."

Another factor that piqued the interest of the Rockies this offseason was his postseason experience, as he has played in 44 postseason games and won one championship.

"All of that factored in quite a bit," manager Walt Weiss said. "I think we sometimes underestimate the value of that — guys that have played in big games, pennant races, and have won a World Series. Those types of players are valuable, and that's a big reason why we brought Danny in here."

Descalso has made 110 starts at second base, 91 at third base and 88 at shortstop in his five-year career, seeing at least 100 appearances at all three poitions. He hit .242/.333/.311 in 161 at-bats last year with the Cardinals.