Really, only 30% on your entries with Jones? He’s been a lock for 90+ points it seems. I was leaning towards the both of them.. This whole card has got me twisted. I don’t know what’s going to happen in any of these fights. Who’s the one guy you think is locked for a big day, Gje?

He will likely be the UFC 232 Lima for sure. Some should add Condit just to be sure.

Man, I love Carlos so much, I hope so. But it’s kind of an insult to call him the Lima.,. and that said, I don’t love the match-up at all. Condit is obviously struggling against anyone with a strong ground game. Chiesa is just another guy who’s going to get it to the ground if he has to and then cinch up some sort of lock on Carlos.. I don’t know why they aren’t giving the NBK a stand up fighter. Nobody wants to watch him on his back.

Regarding other fighters or a “must-play”, with the exception of BJ Penn I pretty much like everyone on this card in one way or another. I just started working on the numbers and this will take several hours. I’ll try and post most of my numbers later, probably around 12 noon MT. I’ll also post my actual lineup exposure percentages sometime after that; probably an hour or two before lock.

100% Cyborg / Mendes
Feel good about Yan / Cat / Ryan Hall winning but have returns vs price reservations about each
Like Harris / Lewis but there is one shot risk there.
Instinct says Chiesa because ground but have an itch that wont go away on this one.
Instinct says Jackson but have an itch in this one too which got worse after failed cut.
Having problems reading the Latifi / Millender / Ewell fights though you can see who i am leaning towards.
Jones should win.

I only seem to cash when i dont post about the card on the forum and this time i went all out so first sub 100 score ever incoming.
You have been warned.

Below, please find my rankings for the best fights to target in lineups tonight. Roughly speaking, the both ITD (Inside the Distance) rankings correspond to fights to target in GPPs and the Total FPts Rank corresponds to fights to target in Cash games. With that said, I personally use a combination of all numbers for targeting the best GPP fights (I don’t play Cash). Please note, the rankings below are based both on no vigorish odds (better than implied odds) calculated using current odds from 5Dimes and my personal point projections. Importantly, the rankings below are not based on a single fighter’s expected performance in a match, but instead the likelihood that one of the two fighters in each specific fight finish inside the distance and/or with significant fantasy points. Thus, I do NOT recommend using two fighters from the same fight in the same lineup.

Tables 2 and 3 below are no vigorish odds expressed as percentages per fighter for various fight outcomes tonight. The no vigorish odds were calculated using 5Dimes fight and prop odds as of 10:15 am MT, 12/29/2018. There are two difference between tables 2 and 3. The first is that actual no vigorish odds are listed in Table 1 and rankings are listed in Table 2. I included the second table primarily because rank orders are often easier to read, and digest at a glance, than percentages. The second difference is that in Table 2 I also included rank orders for my points projections (and no, I did not include my actual projections here, sorry). For those not familiar with the difference between implied odds and no vigorish odds please see a previous post of mine from a previous fight (can’t remember which fight) or simply google “difference between implied odds and no vigorish odds”. Suffice to say, I never use implied odds as no vigorish odds are far superior.

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