I'm a big fan of comps. Comparables. Outer-markers. Players from NHL history whose careers are somewhat similar to a modern player who has written such a small script we need an indicator about their future. As a fan, I always look for the outer marker--just as Ranger fans did with Brad Park (in photo, with some other guy) early in his career. After all, why look for a comparable who ended up being a role player? Exactly. Who are the best comparables for the current group of young Oilers?
For the last several years, I've gone in search of comparables for Oiler prospects. Ales Hemsky's best comp was Rick Middleton, Rob Schremp's was Ron Chipperfield and on it went. I thought it might be a good idea to see if we can find some comparables from the NHL's past for the Oilers young guns. Some of these names will be familiar to Lowetide readers, but there are many new elements too.

Sam Gagner: We've identified two solid comparables: Doug Gilmour and Vincent Damphousse. A third (Doug Weight) is a hopeful comp but the two players came through different routes as prospects so we're still waiting for them to play in the same league at the same age. Here are three NHL players at age 20:

Gilmour and Damphousse played in an era where more goals were scored. In fact, it is quite a large gap. The NHL average for GF in Gagner's 20-year old season was 2.84; Damphousse 3.71; Gilmour 3.95. These comps aren't perfect (Gagner debuted at 18 years old so had more NHL experience by age 20 than the other two) but I think it is completely reasonable to argue Gagner is "in the range" with those two fine NHL players. Both Gilmour and Damphousse had "breakout" seasons (at 23 and 22 years old, respectively) so there might be a surge coming for Gagner.

Magnus Pääjärvi: We're looking for a reasonable 18-year old comparable from the Swedish Elite League that might help us project this kid into the future. With the season now done the young man ranks "in the range" with some well known SEL teenagers over the years.

Markus Naslund 39gp, 22-18-40 (1.03)

Tomas Sandstrom 36gp, 23-14-37 (1.03)

Daniel Sedin 50gp, 21-21-42 (.840)

Henrik Sedin 49gp, 12-22-34 (.694)

Peter Forsberg 39gp, 9-18-27 (.692)

Magnus Pääjärvi 49gp, 12-17-29 (.592)

Nicklas Backstrom 46gp, 10-16-26 (.565)

Anze Kopitar 47gp, 8-12-20 (.426)

Not everyone on the list is Swedish but they all played at 18 in the SEL. Backstrom and Kopitar rank below MPS here but it is important to remember that they (and Forsberg) were still in their development stages and had another gear. We don't know if our guy has overdrive.

I like Tomas Sandstrom as a comparable to our guy. Both have/had size and skill, both were well known as teenagers (Sandstrom had a couple of strong WJC's) and both counted foot speed and shooting ability as their calling cards as young men. Both were/are aggressive and both had Finnish connections despite playing in Sweden. As for the difference in their scoring totals and points-per-game (above), Sandstrom played on a team that scored 3.97 goals per game (143 in 36gp) and MPS plays on a team scoring 2.53 goals per game (137 in 54gp). Most of the modern players are playing in a deadball era, so the offensive difference between a 09-10 SEL player and a 82-83 SEL player (in terms of boxcars) has to be adjusted to make the comparison equal.

Taylor Hall: One of the things that makes this player unique is that he was beating OHL opposition about the face and hands at 15. Seriously. In his three OHL seasons Hall has averaged 41 goals and 93 points. I'd kill to find out his OHL shot totals but organized hockey can't release that for fear of reefer madness in the streets. Here are the top skill picks from Ontario's top league over the last several seasons:

Patrick Kane (2007) 58gp, 62-83-145 (2.50)

Sam Gagner (2007) 53gp, 35-83-118 (2.23)

Taylor Hall (2010) 57gp, 40-66-106 (1.86)

John Tavares (2009) 56gp, 58-46-104 (1.86)

Steven Stamkos (2008) 61gp, 58-47-105 (1.72)

Bobby Ryan (2005) 62gp, 37-52-89 (1.44)

Matt Duchene (2009) 57gp, 31-48-79 (1.39)

I'm always a little wary of the London Knights because their TOI totals seem to skew their point totals (Rob Schremp), so the Kane-Gagner totals are a little suspect (although they are clearly quality players). Hall ranks in the middle of the group, so I thought it might be an idea to average their NHL totals at age 18. All but Ryan played in the year after their draft, and the averaged totals of the other five players (81gp, 21-34-55) would be outstanding. As for a specific comparable, I think his style most closely resembles Patrick Kane. We need to also remember that Kane (a November birthday) was much older as a rookie (about 9 months older than Gagner) and that Hall is also a November birthday. I think Kane is the comp, the outer marker. Now that doesn't mean I think he's Patrick Kane. It means he's "in the range" with Tavares and Stamkos, though. Excellent comparable. We'll see.

Jordan Eberle: The more unique the player, the more difficult it is to find a comparable. In looking for an Eberle comp, I looked for WHL players taken in the middle of the first round during the 2000's. The candidates don't match: some played a different style, others were less gifted offensively or derailed after their draft day and before they turned pro. So I moved up the draft list and added a couple or three from the top 10. Here's the list of similar player-types at age 17:

Zach Hamill (2007) 69gp, 32-61-93 (1.35)

Gilbert Brule (2005) 70gp, 39-48-87 (1.24)

Peter Mueller (2006) 52gp, 26-32-58 (1.12)

Jordan Eberle (2008) 70gp, 42-33-75 (1.07)

Kenndal McArdle (2005) 70gp, 37-37-74 (1.06)

Devin Setoguchi (2005) 69gp, 33-31-64 (.928)

Not all of these kids are exactly like Eberle, but I've excluded the Getzlafs, Ladds and Fehr's from the list. I think his best match from the group is Setoguchi. Here they are as 18-year olds:

Eberle 61gp, 35-39-74 (1.21)

Setoguchi 65gp, 36-47-83 (1.28)

Setoguchi is bigger (6.00, 195) and played with extreme skill once he reached the NHL (which perhaps skews our view of the comp) but it looks pretty solid at age 18. Setoguchi led his team in points (with a 20 point cushion) as the Blades won 41 games (3.22 GF per game). Eberle led his Pats in scoring (Weal just 4 points behind) and the team won 27 games (3.17 GF per game). I think it is a good match at 18. Here's 19:

Eberle 57gp, 50-56-106 (1.86)

Setoguchi 55gp, 36-29-65 (1.18)

Setoguchi once again led his team in points (by 9 this time) and the club won 33 games. Setoguchi's Prince George club averaged 3.07 GF per game. Eberle led his Pats in points (once again just 4 clear of Weal) and the Pats won 30 times. Their GF per game average was 3.42. Despite Eberle's edge offensively I still think they're a solid match. Setoguchi was an 8th overall pick, but I think Eberle would be much higher than 22nd overall in a re-draft of the 2008 group.

In the future, I'll do another comp-post (sorry) and if you want me to run some numbers on a specific prospect don't hesitate to post it. Also, if you have a better comp for Gagner, Hall, Pääjärvi or Eberle please post the name and I'll add them to the list.

Finally, does this kind of thing hold interest for you? I enjoy looking at this kind of thing in order to track prospects and get an idea about their outer marker, but am not certain it is something a large group of people enjoy. Let me know.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

I would like to raise one point, to get some thoughts back.. Hall is promoted as a goal scorer, but his 18 yo totals are significantly lower than both stamkos and tavares.. should this be an early indicator that an elite 40-50 goal season probably isnt in the cards?! or be written off on the basis of windsor being so good, Hall didnt have to do it all himself?!

LT, Stats on their own can be a little sleep inducing, but relevant and simple comps like this are worthwhile and serve to get away from the "anecdotal" takes people have. I think some stats like Corsi, plus minus, etc without being corrected to overall team performance can be misleading (see Charley Huddy and Andrej Mesaros plus minus when their teams were dominant) and somewhat meaningless. I enjoy your takes because although I don't know you, you seem to be a bit of grisled veteran (and really can a veteran be anythig but "grisled")? "Old fellas" (in their 30s and 40s) like myself appreciate your POV. I know you did not intend this to be an Al Franken affirmation ala Stuart Smalley on the dreadful Saturday Night Live skit, but all I can say is you are smart enough, you are funny enough and doggone it people like you.

Looking at this group, Gagner has a chance to be one of the best 6th overall selections in the last 15 years. IMO, right now, Koivu is the best overall player in this group... but at 27 years of age Koivu has only played two more NHL seasons than Gagner (Koivu's breakout years btw). As an Oiler fan, I choose to remain optimistic that Gagner (like Koivu) is set to jump from a 40-50 point player to a 60-70 point player in his fourth full NHL season. Should be fun to watch.

I can't believe I'm going to be the one to say this, but since you used Gagner, how's about comp's for Cogliano & Brule. I think Nate's Gagner comp to Langkow is one worth keeping in mind, too (although I believe both he and I are of the belief that Sam's going to be a high-end 2nd line center rather than a true, legit 1st line center).

Since the lockout the Flames have drafted 40 players who have played a total of 47 NHL games with any organization. This ~wonderful~ group of prospects has contributed a stunning 15 points of total offence! Not one player of the eight drafted in 2006 has played a single game.(No wonder Sutter needed to resign Ollie Jokinen)

All numbers gleaned from Hockey DB... and are only as accurate as the source...

Since the lockout, 42 Oiler draft picks have played a combined 598 games and scored 253 points of total offence.. and the best is yet to come.

Hello Lowetide.
This is my first post on this or your other site. I have been reading your stuff for years on a daily basis. (great reading) In this blog you asked if people enjoy the comp's, well I do. Thanks for all the work you put into this stuff.

I see MPS as being a Radek Dvorak type player. Both are Euro's picked tenth overall. Both have size and speed to burn. Both are unafraid to drive the net but don't play a particularly heavy game on the cycle... Florida pushed Dvorak into NHL duty almost immediately after being drafted so it's hard to use a Lowetide-esque same age, same league, similar production type formula to justify Dvorak as my comparable... this is more from my gut. (although Dvorak outproduced MPS on a PPG basis in limited action in the Czech league during his draft year)

Despite the dizzying sea of optimism surrounding the current crop of Oiler prospects, one knock I've heard a couple of times about MPS is that his hands and overall finishing ability aren't quite at an elite level... sounds kinda like Dvorak to me. Of course MPS is a young player, and my heart tells me that MPS may yet develop into a purer goal scorer... *Fingers crossed*... but my damn brain keeps reminding me that pure goal scoring ability is often a gift, and not something that is learned.

... although I believe they do have some decent prospects at this time (none in the Hall, Paajarvi, Eberle, Gagner realm, however). Mikael Backlund (F), Greg Nemisz (F), Mitch Wahl (F), Tim Erixon (D), TJ Brodie (D) & John Negrin (D) are among the group that currently intrigues me.

Keep in mind, the Flames have drafted lower since the lockout than the Oil more often than not, and they have traded some picks away (a whole other story), so it should be expected that the Oilers draft picks would have produced better than anything the Flames have done since then. Also, the Flames have generally had better teams in that time period, meaning less rookies.

All that said, yes, the Flames have had a fairly poor drafting record for quite some time (Kris Chucko, Brent Krahn, Jesper Mattson, Niklas Sunblad, Tkachuk, Fata, etc.).

It's been bothering me for many years that 18-year-olds are eligible to play in the NHL but not the AHL. The argument that the AHL is too rough of a league for 18-year-olds is hogwash, in my opinion, because it seems highly improbably that it is a more physical league than the big league. The real motivation seems to be to protect the quality (and profitability) of the CHL, as too many of its high end players would jump up the the A after turning 18 given the option. One further tell about this motivation is that European born players are allowed to play in the AHL at the age of 18: where's the consistency in that if part of the purpose is to protect the players?

Despite my irritation at this rule, I see some validity to it, and think that there are only a handful of players below the age of 20 who could handle the A. The best resolution/compromise that I've been able to think of is to allow each AHL team one underage player per season. This would allow each franchise the option to give a developmental advantage to one protege per year.

Would any of the NHL, NHLPA, AHL, or CHL have any interest in making this happen, though? I think all of them except the CHL might.

Not incidentally, I think that if it were possible, a season in the AHL would be the best alternative for Hall. He clearly has nothing further to gain from playing in the OHL, yet a jump right to the big show might be too much for him and could stunt his development.

Reading your last paragraph I'm not sure I understand why you'd think a jump right to the big show might be too much for Hall.

In this entire decade there have been 8 forwards taken 1st overall and none of them spent anytime whatsoever in the AHL..

Not playing in the AHL didn't seem to hinder any of these 1st overall selections...in fact the whole thought process that players must spend time in the AHL in order to prevent stunting development is wayyyyy overhyped.

A majority of todays top scoring NHL players spend very little if any time in the AHL...

Firstly, I like your article. In fact, I like 99% of your articles; wish you could be more prolific although writing for two sites must surely present it's challenges. . .

Taylor Hall is going to be a stud in his years with the Oilers.

Jordan Eberle might well wear the "C," in a few years. And, in a few years I think he has a chance of filling the net on a very regular basis.

MPS is a mystery. Someone mentioned Radek D. as a comparable and I entertain the possibility. Time, as they say, will tell, but I think he has more Sandstrom in him and should the Oilers ever have a stud first line center, he could prove to be as prolific Kurri.

I keep forgetting Gagne is but 20 years of age. He has a shot at being as talented as Gilmour but he doesn't appear to have the fire. Maybe it comes later? Let's hope. I DO think at the very least he has the talent to be a Vinnie D though.

i'd like to see giant graphs for yearly "percentage of league points/goals/assists" where you could visually see all the players side by side, the player with the widest swath being the player with the largest point total.

an unwieldy and huge graph to be sure, but could possibly be revealing.

I'm not a big fan of prospect analysis (or prospects at all), although I'm not much of a hockey nerd either. I will say that I enjoy your way of projecting player development and find it a reasonable alternative to the pure stats approach some would prefer to use.

Good interactive piece, it appeals to both the stat geek & observer. If you'd attached a Spears V Aguilera photo the comments would be in the 300's.. If Taylor Hall's NHL totals match Gartner's, I'd be thrilled!

Another possibility for Paajarvi is the player he says he tries to emulate: Maxim Afinogenov.

He should spend the first half season boarding at MacT's house to learn him out of that good.

His propensity to try and go through entire teams one on one is going to get seriously curtailed on NHL ice against NHL brutes.

He is a bit of a mystery, and I'm sure we'll know better in a few months, but that's some mighty SELect company he's keeping there and that can't be ignored. Nor can his elite level speed and ability to change gears. I hope MPS isn't selling himself short.

If they can get him pointed in the right direction, I would be delighted if he turns into Sandstrom. But I remember Sandstrom having a pretty good wrister (but certainly don't trust my well-pickled brain cells) and I don't know if MPS has that quality a shot. Looks more like he uses a quick release snapper in close to me.

The nice thing is that any line with Gagner could use a bit of help skating the puck through the neutral zone (like Kane did), and MPS can certainly help there.

If Paajarvi can find a way to score in close with speed at this level, Glenn Anderson is a possible outer marker.

Despite agreeing with your comment regarding fans' "anecdotal" takes on comparables, I think this one is reasonable:

Jordan Eberle = Chris Drury. Both undersized, both clutch, both play C / RW. Drury's pedigree is superior though because he played in the Little League WS.

Yeah but Eberle likely curled growing up in Regina and knows the virtue of a cold Pilsner, so the LLWS angle plays a distant second.

Although I realize your tounge is planted at least a little in your cheek, the Drury comparison is an interesting one. Both did come into prominence at the WJHC, at least to some degree in Drury's case, and are small in stature. Big difference for me is Drury spent four years at BU while Eberle spent his late teens riding the bus across the prairies. Not to open that can of worms, but infinitely different prep to the pros between the two paths. I'll take the Western League boy everyday if skill sets are comparable. Having said that Drury has been a very good pro - that might be a good outcome - if that ends up being Eberle's lot in life.

Firstly, I like your article. In fact, I like 99% of your articles; wish you could be more prolific although writing for two sites must surely present it's challenges. . .

Taylor Hall is going to be a stud in his years with the Oilers.

Jordan Eberle might well wear the "C," in a few years. And, in a few years I think he has a chance of filling the net on a very regular basis.

MPS is a mystery. Someone mentioned Radek D. as a comparable and I entertain the possibility. Time, as they say, will tell, but I think he has more Sandstrom in him and should the Oilers ever have a stud first line center, he could prove to be as prolific Kurri.

I keep forgetting Gagne is but 20 years of age. He has a shot at being as talented as Gilmour but he doesn't appear to have the fire. Maybe it comes later? Let's hope. I DO think at the very least he has the talent to be a Vinnie D though.

Lets stop the Gagner is only 20 stuff right now.

He's 21.

In order for Lowetide's silly Gilmour- Damphousse comparisons to hold any water at all, Gagner, in his fourth season would have to put up 42G, 63A and 105P, ala Gilmour, and/or 33G 61A 94P, ala Damphousse, this coming season.

DSF: Clearly we're going to disagree here. My comparables are all based on age. Although not a perfect measure (even 6 months can make a difference at a young age) my own feeling is that age is a more important consideration than experience.

Once a young player gets comfortable with the speed and size in the NHL then he can find a way to compete. However, to suggest Sam Gagner at 18 is a fair comprable to Doug Gilmour at 20 skews the equation.

I did enjoy your hard work on the post, though. It was an interesting read.

I like the Kane comp, except for two things: Hall's size and more physical play. I also think Hall is by far the better goal-scorer. He doesn't have Stamkos' shot, but it's closer to his than Kane's.

Hall is a pretty unique combination of power and finesse at high speed. He has more moves than Iginla or Messier, but likely not the power. He has more power than Kane, but maybe not the finesse. He might be as good a back-checker as any of them.

Surely there's a better name we can find? Sakic? Zetterberg? Other guys who can play with power, play with finesse, and have good shots, can play W or C? Guys who have the ability to be either play-maker or sniper? Guys who get back when the game is on the line?

I guess it's all about what you use the comparables for. To me, with comps, style is very important. LT, I think you create your comps to predict possible future success and track careers and thus rely heavily on scoring at the same age, source league (etc), but I'm not entirely sure of the point since everyone's going to take different paths through the league anyway. Why not find the archetype off the same tree and see how they track from that?

For eg, I've never liked the Hemsky-Middleton comp (as you likely remember) because they're not the same kind of player. Both have speed down the wing and Middleton had some shiftiness, but to me that's about where it ends. Middleton was more of a goal-scorer than a play-maker.

Extend this to Setoguchi: he seems to score more with his speed than his positioning, and I'd say the exact opposite is true for Eberle. Eberle is also a better passer. Can we not say Whitney is a possible comp?

Oh, and please never stop posting these comp articles, LT. I love the brain processes they provoke, and they're always fun to read, as is all your stuff.

Since the lockout the Flames have drafted 40 players who have played a total of 47 NHL games with any organization. This ~wonderful~ group of prospects has contributed a stunning 15 points of total offence! Not one player of the eight drafted in 2006 has played a single game.(No wonder Sutter needed to resign Ollie Jokinen)

All numbers gleaned from Hockey DB... and are only as accurate as the source...

Since the lockout, 42 Oiler draft picks have played a combined 598 games and scored 253 points of total offence.. and the best is yet to come.

That's stunning and awesome all at the same time. Thanks for that, it made my weekend.

spOILer: I've tried doing comps using Desjardins, but it never seems to line up for me. If a kid is playing in the KHL and we're comparing him to a guy who is in the NCAA, I can't make it look right in my mind's eye.

That may be just me, but finding someone from the past in the same league is the most logical from my pov.

But I do agree that style of player is an important item. In Hall's case, rummaging around is more understandable since we're just now putting him under the microscope.

Eberle's situation is a little different. The guys he compares to at 17 didn't develop like he did, or at least they didn't stay in junior.

I think we're going to be rummaging around for all these kids (less so with Eberle) for a bit. Styles sometimes change when guys hit the pro level as they figure out where their success lies. Kane might be a good example of this.

But if this is mostly a matter of boxcars at equivalent ages and leagues, styles be damned, shouldn't more consideration be given to the goal and assist breakdowns?

DSF: Clearly we're going to disagree here. My comparables are all based on age. Although not a perfect measure (even 6 months can make a difference at a young age) my own feeling is that age is a more important consideration than experience.

Once a young player gets comfortable with the speed and size in the NHL then he can find a way to compete. However, to suggest Sam Gagner at 18 is a fair comprable to Doug Gilmour at 20 skews the equation.

I did enjoy your hard work on the post, though. It was an interesting read.

I could go on but obviously Gagner is a second tier talent at best while Damphousse and Gilmour were among the league leaders in their time while Gagner is behind his contemporaries by a considerable margin even when age is the prime directive.

Great read lowetide I have been reading ON since the Heatley debacle. And started reading your site shortly after. I have always enjoyed your comp articles and hearing that you have more coming here is good to hear. Keep up the great work ON is lucky to have you on their crew now

DSF: Seasons versus age! in your world a 30 year old with 50 points in his first season is the same as Gagner the 18 year old with 49 points in his first season.
Come on thats just................ My 6 six year old would laugh!

Desjardins loooked at the 23 and under junior production world. Variance is not the norm!

...wait. I also like Brandon Gormley at 13th overall. Who would have ever thought that such a quality d-man propsect would slip all the way to 13th? The Flames must be so pleased... oh. Nevermind.

*... Now back to polishing my Zone 5 Regional Douche Of The Month trophy*

LOLZ

That doesn't particularly bug me as much as one might think.

a) there was no way to know a top 6 prospect would slide 7 spots,
b) the Flames made that deal 2 years ago, who could have known what position that pick would be,
c) I actually supported the Jokinen deal at the time (hindsight being 20/20, I now see how absurd it was, but I can't flip-flop & pretend I hated it then).

The only thing that bothers me about it is that they had the option of making it the '09 1st rounder or the '10 1st rounder... once again, hindsight being 20/20, I'd take the 13th in '10 (Gormley) over the 23rd in '09 (Tim Erixon).

In any case, that Zone 5 Regional Douche Of The Month trophy was well earned ;-)

~I can't wait to see who we trade this year's 1st rounder for~

Ah well... remember that time the Oil traded down to take Pouliot rather than take Parise/Getzlaf/Richards/Perry/Kesler/Burns?