Some of the people with financial backgrounds probably can guesstimate this one, but I understand that, during the Great Depression starting in 1929, those who left their money in stocks took alllll the way to 1954 to recoup the losses. Please correct me if I am wrong on that statement.
Anyway, is it going to take another 25 years to recoup all the losses many of us are taking right now, too? I am assuming so, but would love to hear what the finance professionals here think.

__________________

__________________Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Some of the people with financial backgrounds probably can guesstimate this one, but I understand that, during the Great Depression starting in 1929, those who left their money in stocks took alllll the way to 1954 to recoup the losses. Please correct me if I am wrong on that statement.
Anyway, is it going to take another 25 years to recoup all the losses many of us are taking right now, too? I am assuming so, but would love to hear what the finance professionals here think.

I am not financial professional, and of course it will depend on what each individual owns, but I very strongly doubt that large aggregates like the Dow will be down anywhere near that long.

IMO, there are some amazing bargains around in companies that essentially cannot disappear.

ha

__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams

but I very strongly doubt that large aggregates like the Dow will be down anywhere near that long.

I'd vote for less than 25 yrs too, but certainly much longer than just a quick 2 - 3 year snap-back where we're sitting here in the autumn of 2011 talking about how glad we are that that's over with!

This assumes that during the next decade or so we solve major issues such as energy, water, food, inbound immigration, terrorism and the resulting cost to keep it in check, etc. Otherwise, we've just experienced a permanent adjustment downward in our aggregate wealth that won't abate ever, at least in terms of our lifetimes......

__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam

Sorry this is so vague, but last week I heard on CNN or FoxNews that Goldman Sachs was predicting the DJIA would be up 30% in the next 8 months and 40% in the next year. Wouldn't that be nice! Unfortunately, I've Googled to find verification --- without success...

I saw on another post on this board regarding Suze Orman that she says this will be an L shaped recession--returning on the upswing around 2015. She could be right as every article on Marketwatch or from the Wall St. Journal--or any other media tv show or paper I have been able to get my hands on--says we will bottom somewhere around March or April of 2009 with a very slight upturn after that; so, we could just lope along until 2015 or longer.
...all I know is that I am a very unhappy camper lately...as in VERY....

__________________Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.

I think it will happen pretty quickly and those on the sidelines will see it up a few weeks then wait to see if it is truly going up then get in after the main upswing. People are putting money in 401K and IRA or ROTH and will not all stop yet those trying to live on investments will pull out less. Some of us will work years longer to be sure we have plenty in spite of this setback. For those of us not yet retired but about ready this was a good wake up call not to count on high returns and really think about risk tolerance. I have a very high risk tolerance and even with this downturn haven't considered selling low.

If you reinvested dividends, your break-even point from the 1929 peak would have occurred in 1944, NOT 1954.

__________________"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?"-- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

Not to quibble, but in what sense is a retiree re-investing dividends? Quite the opposite- she is usually taking out more than dividends in living expenses.

If you had 15 years in a safe "bucket" for income, then you would have been able to reinvest all the dividends because you wouldn't be selling stocks for income for many years. This is one of the benefits of a "buckets of money" type of approach to asset allocation in and approaching retirement.

Plus, I didn't think the scenario we were talking about was strictly within the context of someone already retired.

__________________"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?"-- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

Ziggy29: The article I read must have meant without reinvesting then. Thanks for the input. I have it recorded, and, at least, you won't have to correct me again. Got it!

__________________Please consider adopting a rescue animal. So very many need a furr-ever home and someone to love them! And if we all spay/neuter our pets there won't be an overpopulation to put to death.

Warren Buffett was recently quoted saying that in 5-10 years we would look back on this period and the extraordinary buys available at this time.

No surprise there but I think it's worth noting he did not say 3-5 years

In 10 years WB will be 88 years old. He doesn't have to plan for 40 years of ER. He has a huge NW even now and cannot possibly run out of money during his lifetime. How does this affect his risk tolerance?

Latest Threads

Social Knowledge Community

About Us

This community was started in 2002 as an alternative to a then fee only Motley Fool. The focus of the discussions is on topics related to early retirement and financial independence. The community is moderated to ensure a pleasant experience for our members.