The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin. Thomas Huxley

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Roads, Cars, Tiwai and EV's: a Singularity approaches?

I'm always amused by the antics of the anti-roads brigade. My initial reaction is simple: don't these clowns realise that public transport (buses, taxis, and rentals) plus essential freight (food, exports, FMCG to yer local supermarket) all need - Roads? I mean, whadda they expect - a Light Rail branch to every shopping mall? Pallets of food (organic, naturally) carried hither and yon, on Cargo Bikes? Bikes and rails chuffing up hills like wot they have in Dunedin, Wellington and Auckland? Gaah....

So it is with Great Glee that I stumble across an article trumpeting yet another breakthrough in EV's which leads straight on to thoughts about an Impending Singularity here in Godzone.

Just the facts, ma'am.

Tiwai Point smelter (Rio Tinto owned) is marginally economic: it's COGS is around $USD16-1800 per unit, while the world price for the stuff hovers around $USD1900. Once transport is factored in, it's hard to make a buck where SALES = COGS, no matter how much volume ya pump through.

Tiwai is a way of exporting electricity, as the NBR article notes. It is around 1/7th (that's 14.28% for youse metric types) of total NZ generation capacity.

Now, let's assume that Tiwai (disclosure, I carted fabricated steel stuff there in ma Tonka Toy phase during TP's construction, so I have an interest in the show, plus I'm a Meridian shareholder) closes sometime between 2017 and 2022. That releases a lotta electrons from potline slavery. Hmmm. What to use 'em for?