Tropical Storm Arlene, with winds near 40 mph, has formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, as the storm moves west northwest toward the eastern coast of Mexico.

Arlene was moving near 7 mph at 7 p.m., and a turn toward the west is forecast during the next day or so. Based on the latest forecast track, the center of Arlene is expected to reach the coast on Thursday.

The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for the coast of northeastern Mexico from Barra de Nautla north to Bahia Algodones. Some strengthening of this storm is expected during the next two days. Tropical storm conditiions, including winds, are expected to reach the coast by late Wednesday.

Arlene also is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz, with some mountainous areas getting 12 inches, which could result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Storm surge could raise coastal water levels by 1 to 2 feet above normal tide levels to the north of where the center makes landfall, and could be accompanied by large and destructive waves.