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By William Duncan

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11 Dec 2013 08:00:00

Frank de Boer's side boast an impressive defensive record and our tipster believes that the away team can keep things tight against the Serie A side in this Champions League clash

After an emphatic 3-0 victory over Celtic in Glasgow, AC Milan come into the final round of the Champions League group stage knowing that avoiding defeat against Ajax at San Siro on Wednesday night would be enough to see them through to the knockouts.

Massimiliano Allegri's men have a one-point advantage over the Dutch side and, with Celtic already eliminated, a draw would ensure that the Serie A side progress to the next round.

Milan are warm favourites at just 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill to claim their place in the last 16 in style by collecting all three points against Frank de Boer's side on home turf.

Ajax, though, will travel to Milan in confident mood following a fine run of form in recent weeks.

De Boer's men have won seven of their last eight matches in all competitions and their hopes of progressing to the next round of the Champions League have been reignited by impressive back-to-back victories over Celtic and Barcelona.

The visitors are chalked up at a chunky 9/2 (5.50) with William Hill to stun Allegri's side by winning in Milan while the draw is available at 5/2 (3.50) with the same firm.

Both sides could welcome back key strikers ahead of Wednesday's game, with Icelandic striker Kolbeinn Sigthorsson likely to return for the visitors while Stephan El Shaarawy may start for the home side.

Despite the potential return of two key players, this match still has all the makings of a tight encounter, with the corresponding fixture ending 1-1 by virtue of two late goals in Amsterdam.

Milan have won just one of their last five home matches in all competitions, while it should be noted that Allegri's men have netted just six goals in their last seven fixtures on home turf.

Ajax have kept five clean sheets in their last six games in all competitions and the Dutchmen are capable of frustrating the Rossoneri for long spells.

Therefore, the even money (2.0) quote for fewer than three goals to be scored at San Siro on Wednesday night looks to represent excellent value and should be backed accordingly by punters.

Willie Duncan is a freelance sports journalist. Willie, from Edinburgh, has covered Scottish football for over 10 years and he specialises in football betting markets from across Europe. You can also follow Willie on Twitter