Really informative write up that echos others reports that the main thing to be worried about in the US is influenza. As much as people will get caught up in the "exoticness" of the coronavirus, they still won't take the basic precautions against the already proven deadly flu.

I see the 2-3% death rate figure, which seems like a crude calculation based on known cases and deaths - but we are in massive exponential growth phase - about 15x increase per week, with relatively long incubation periods and extended time-to-die of pneumonia in hospital, so known cases will be well ahead of deaths as infection rate grows. Seems likely to me that mortality will be higher than that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... ssions.png

Really informative write up that echos others reports that the main thing to be worried about in the US is influenza. As much as people will get caught up in the "exoticness" of the coronavirus, they still won't take the basic precautions against the already proven deadly flu.

New is scary because we at minimum have a good understanding of influenza and it's pathogenic track. New things -likely- will crap out way before becoming a pandemic but new viral outbreaks have a load of potential energy.

Yeah, more people die of the flu most years, likely this year, etc. but most doctors offices can test for flu with reasonable accuracy and tell those folks to stay the heck home. Likely they can't test for this, so outbreaks can happen much quicker or with less understanding of what the causative agent is.

Nothing I'm personally worried about, outside of an excuse to start eating that sweet head goo, but there are reasons we "panic" more for things like this.

And the first time I've ever seen the term "raccoon dogs." Cute little things. Too bad they spread disease.

Also, I couldn't help but notice that Goop products were omitted from the "What should you do section?" Surely Goop has some powerful crystals that can defend us from getting infected.

Speaking of disease, Netflix, in contraindication to the Goop docuseries, has a new docuseries called "Pandemic." Now would be a perfect time for Ars/Beth to review that. I found the first two episodes to be very interesting, without a great deal of fearmongering.

Flu activity is currently high in the United States. The CDC estimates that influenza has already infected at least 15 million people, causing at least 140,000 hospitalizations and at least 8,200 deaths—that’s just in this season so far and just in the US.

THIS!!! Get your flu shot folks. It's mindblowing all the hoopla about this coronavirus when the flu kills 200-400k people every year around the world.

Flu activity is currently high in the United States. The CDC estimates that influenza has already infected at least 15 million people, causing at least 140,000 hospitalizations and at least 8,200 deaths—that’s just in this season so far and just in the US.

THIS!!! Get your flu shot folks. It's mindblowing all the hoopla about this coronavirus when the flu kills 200-400k people every year around the world.

I like the (I think from a TED talk?) rule of thumb that if it's in the news, you can ignore it, because by definition it almost never happens or it wouldn't be news.

People dying from a novel coronavirus? All over the news. Many more dying from regular Flu? Much less common on the news.

I see the 2-3% death rate figure, which seems like a crude calculation based on known cases and deaths - but we are in massive exponential growth phase - about 15x increase per week, with relatively long incubation periods and extended time-to-die of pneumonia in hospital, so known cases will be well ahead of deaths as infection rate grows. Seems likely to me that mortality will be higher than that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... ssions.png

This assumes that we're accurately counting the number of infections vs the deaths. The number may quickly go down if we find more infections than the currently confirmed number.

From a confirmation bias standpoint I'd guess we're testing anyone who died with corona-like symtpoms (so possibly an accurate-ish count). But mild cases present like a cold and may never be diagnosed (leading to an undercount).

Flu activity is currently high in the United States. The CDC estimates that influenza has already infected at least 15 million people, causing at least 140,000 hospitalizations and at least 8,200 deaths—that’s just in this season so far and just in the US.

THIS!!! Get your flu shot folks. It's mindblowing all the hoopla about this coronavirus when the flu kills 200-400k people every year around the world.

Don't worry about it, this girl from high school posted on Facebook that the essential oils in the multi level marketing handsoap she's shilling will protect me from flu. Probably Coronavirus and any other form of death as well. I'll hook you up with details.

Praise be to Ms. Mole and Ars Technica for running a clear, thoughtful, and non-sensationalist article on the state of this outbreak. And it is good to be reminded that paying attention to the regular seasonal influenza is of higher importance for most people.

Praise be to Ms. Mole and Ars Technica for running a clear, thoughtful, and non-sensationalist article on the state of this outbreak. And it is good to be reminded that paying attention to the regular seasonal influenza is of higher importance for most people.

I think the 'higher importance' is to pay attention to both. Take the already detailed precautions for flu, let the experts take care of this new one, stay informed and don't panic. We can multi-task.

Praise be to Ms. Mole and Ars Technica for running a clear, thoughtful, and non-sensationalist article on the state of this outbreak. And it is good to be reminded that paying attention to the regular seasonal influenza is of higher importance for most people.

I think the 'higher importance' is to pay attention to both. Take the already detailed precautions for flu, let the experts take care of this new one, stay informed and don't panic. We can multi-task.

Flu activity is currently high in the United States. The CDC estimates that influenza has already infected at least 15 million people, causing at least 140,000 hospitalizations and at least 8,200 deaths—that’s just in this season so far and just in the US.

THIS!!! Get your flu shot folks. It's mindblowing all the hoopla about this coronavirus when the flu kills 200-400k people every year around the world.

Combo of unknown things cause fear, that and so far the mortality rate of 2019-nCoV is significantly higher than most seasonal flu strains, which stands at around .1% typically.

In this case as per the US numbers, 15 million infected with seasonal flu, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths.

In the US that is .055% mortality and .9% severe illness. The reports for 2019-nCoV are 3% mortality and 20% severe illness. Its infectiousness appears to be lower than the Flu, as Beth reported, but it is a significantly higher threat compared to seasonal flu if you do become infected.

Its infectiousness is certainly much higher than something like Ebola. Though also much lower risk of mortality or severe illness.

A lot of it is the unknown. Personally, don't freak out about it unless you live in Wuhan (even then, probably don't freak out), but there is a very good reason for governments and health agencies to be very right properly concerned and burning the midnight oil.

So with the WHO's new guidelines on naming diseases to avoid place names, people's names, professions and some other stuff to avoid negative stigmas (all sensible), what naming convention should we use? 2019-nCoV is named as such because it was discovered in 2019, (n)ovel (Co)rona (V)irus. But that is an interim descriptor, not the final viral disease name.

I propose we name it after the infectiousness as well as the mortality, or death rate.

So with the WHO's new guidelines on naming diseases to avoid place names, people's names, professions and some other stuff to avoid negative stigmas (all sensible), what naming convention should we use? 2019-nCoV is named as such because it was discovered in 2019, (n)ovel (Co)rona (V)irus. But that is an interim descriptor, not the final viral disease name.

I propose we name it after the infectiousness as well as the mortality, or death rate.

I see the 2-3% death rate figure, which seems like a crude calculation based on known cases and deaths - but we are in massive exponential growth phase - about 15x increase per week, with relatively long incubation periods and extended time-to-die of pneumonia in hospital, so known cases will be well ahead of deaths as infection rate grows. Seems likely to me that mortality will be higher than that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%8 ... ssions.png

Actually, because of asymptomatic cases, better diagnostics, and better supportive therapies, mortality rates are likely lower than reported, not higher. That doesn't mean that the overall number of deaths won't increase, just that the fraction of those infected who actual succumb to the virus is likely not as high as currently reported.

Of course, as this is a single stranded RNA virus, which generally have a fairly error prone replication system, evolution occurs more rapidly and as the article explained, the virus could mutate to something with higher morbidity and mortality (or lower).

Flu activity is currently high in the United States. The CDC estimates that influenza has already infected at least 15 million people, causing at least 140,000 hospitalizations and at least 8,200 deaths—that’s just in this season so far and just in the US.

THIS!!! Get your flu shot folks. It's mindblowing all the hoopla about this coronavirus when the flu kills 200-400k people every year around the world.

Don't worry about it, this girl from high school posted on Facebook that the essential oils in the multi level marketing handsoap she's shilling will protect me from flu. Probably Coronavirus and any other form of death as well. I'll hook you up with details.