Disarmament Diplomacy

Collapse of Iraq-UNSCOM Relations

Summary

Late October saw a dramatic collapse of relations between Iraq
and the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) charged with
investigating Iraq's past and surviving weapons-of-mass-destruction
(WMD) programmes and capabilities. Although the immediate crisis
was subsequently defused, primarily by Russian diplomacy (see next
issue), by mid-November strong countermeasures, possibly including
military action, by the US and some of its allies seemed to be
looming.

On 29 October, Iraq ordered all US members of UNSCOM inspection
teams to leave its territory within a week. The move followed an
UNSCOM determination of 7 October (see last issue) that Iraq was
still concealing important information, and persisted in hindering
UNSCOM activities, and a UN Security Council resolution of 23
October stipulating the imposition of a travel ban on Iraqi
officials unless Iraq immediately complied with all UNSCOM demands.
Iraq characterised both the UNSCOM verdict and the Security Council
resolution as motivated by US, and to an almost equal degree
British, spite and aggressive intent.

It was widely speculated that such an interpretation was
designed to exacerbate evident tensions between the US and UK and
the three other permanent Council members, China, France and
Russia, all of whom abstained on the 23 October resolution.
However, on 12 November the Security Council unanimously adopted a
resolution strongly criticising Iraq's threatened expulsion of the
US officials. The expulsion, originally scheduled for no later than
6 November, was postponed by Iraq on 4 November, pending
negotiations with a team sent to Iraq by UN Secretary-General Kofi
Annan. On 13 November, that expulsion was carried out. The Chair of
UNSCOM, Richard Butler of Australia, reacted immediately by
removing all members of the inspection teams. It was at this point
that a military escalation of the crisis seemed most likely, though
it was also clear that many States, including almost all States in
the Middle East, were vehemently opposed to any such
development.

Details, Comment and Reaction

23 October Security Council Resolution

The Resolution (No. 1134) was passed by 10 votes to 0 with 5
abstentions - China, Egypt, France, Kenya, Russia. In addition to
stating a "firm intention" of imposing a travel ban on "all Iraqi
officials and members of the Iraqi armed forces who are responsible
for or participate in instances of non-compliance", the resolution
mandated a 6-month suspension in the Council's review of sanction
against Iraq.

State Department spokesperson Lee McClenny described (24
October) the resolution as "a clear setback" for Iraq. US
Ambassador to the UN Bill Richardson called it (23 October) a
"strong but measured response." Iraq's Foreign Minister, Mohammed
Saeed al-Sahhaf, stated after the vote: "This resolution, in fact,
reflects the pre-decision of only two permanent members to impose
their own sick motives and norms on the Security Council... Those
norms are against international law." In a remarkable attack,
presumably on China, France and Russia, the UK Ambassador to the
UN, Sir John Weston, said shortly before the vote: "Some of our
colleagues think that oil runs thicker than blood... But I think
the Council has responsibilities. And they'd better live up to
them."

29 October Iraqi Expulsion Announcement

Iraq's decision was transmitted in a letter to UNSCOM Chair
Richard Butler from Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz. Aziz stated
bluntly: "No individuals of American nationality shall participate
in any activity of the Special Commission inside Iraq, particularly
the activities of inspections, interviews, aerial and ground
surveillance." Iraq subsequently made clear that surveillance
flights by US U2 planes would henceforth not be tolerated.

Butler responded by suspending Commission operations and
breaking off talks with Iraqi officials. Butler stated (29 October)
that Iraq's demand was "not acceptable to me on an administrative
level, nor is it consistent with the agreements that Iraq has
already entered into or with the longstanding policy of the United
Nations not to permit a circumstance where one member State would
seek to exercise the right of decision or veto over the persons
who...carry out objectively the work of the United Nations." Butler
added:

"Let me ask you a question: who's next? Today the United States,
tomorrow the United Kingdom, and so on. This is wrong." Official
Security Council reaction to Iraq's demand came in a 29 October
statement delivered by Council President Juan Samovia of Chile:
"The Security Council condemns the decision of the Government of
Iraq... It demands that Iraq cooperate fully...with the Special
Commission...

The Security Council warns of the serious consequences of Iraq's
failure to comply immediately and fully with its obligations under
the relevant resolutions. The Council is determined to ensure rapid
and full Iraqi compliance..."

US State Department spokesperson James Rubin, commented (29
October): "The Iraqi regime's [expulsion] statement is more than a
refusal to comply with UNSC resolutions and to comply fully with
UNSCOM. It is an attack on the very fundamentals of the UN system
and in particular on UNSCOM's responsibility to carry out its
mandate... [A]s a challenge to the Security Council's authority,
this action has potentially grave consequences."

China reacted by calling on "the parties concerned to exercise
restraint." Speaking on 30 October, Foreign Ministry spokesperson
Tang Guoqiang told reporters: "We hope Iraq will continue to
cooperate with the United Nations... Meanwhile, the international
community should factually evaluate the process through which Iraq
carries out the resolution, and take relevant measures in good
time."

Russia also urged Iraqi cooperation. On 29 October, Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Valery Nesterushkin argued: "Moscow believes
the constructive cooperation of the Iraqi leadership with the
Special Commission is the only correct and realistic way that will
lead to a prompt lifting of sanctions... Any other approach is
fraught with negative consequences, above all for Iraq itself."

On 31 October, speaking in Cairo, Russian Foreign Minister
Yevgeny Primakov said succinctly: "We are against any use of force
against Iraq." Primakov added: "We do not think the decision taken
by Baghdad is the best possible decision, especially after the
emergence of certain positive indications... We think the decision
by Baghdad is very, very serious and has put us in a very difficult
situation."

Build-Up to 12 November Security Council Resolution

On 31 October, Butler defiantly announced that Commission
activities would resume, with the full participation of US
nationals - reported to be 6 in number, out of a total of around 40
inspectors currently in Iraq - on 3 November. On that date, Iraq
prevented any inspections from taking place - a pattern repeated
over the next days. US flights, however, did proceed, despite Iraqi
threats to shoot them down.

On 6 November, the Security Council expressed concern that Iraq
had "interfered" with UNSCOM monitoring equipment. Council
President Qin Husan of China told reporters: "To interfere in any
way in the ongoing monitoring is not in conformity with the
relevant Council resolutions. The Council hopes that any recurrence
will be avoided." On 10 November, UN Secretary-General Annan
announced that his special envoys - Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria),
Emilio Cardenas (Argentina) and Jan Eliasson (Sweden), had been
unable to persuade Iraq to end "this unfortunate situation by
complying with the requirements of the Council." Annan said he had
asked the envoys to stress that if Iraq complied, it could be
expected that "the Security Council, in turn, would be prepared to
listen to the concerns of the Government of Iraq."

On 11 November, a spokesperson for President Yeltsin, Sergei
Yastrzhembsky, reiterated Russia's "decisive opposition to using
the United Nations Security Council as a cover for military strikes
against Baghdad." Also on 11 November, Butler contested a claim by
Aziz that US nationals compose almost a third of UNSCOM's total
pool of around 180 Commission members. According to Butler, 35
States contribute experts to the Commission, with the four largest
contingents coming from Chile (22%), the US (14%), the UK (11%) and
New Zealand (9%).

12 November Resolution

On 12 November, the Security Council unanimously adopted
resolution 1137, imposing the travel ban threatened in resolution
1134. The resolution also expressed the Council's determination to
take "further measures" to resolve the situation.

The resolution was heralded by the US and UK. UK Foreign
Secretary Robin Cook issued a 12 November statement saying "[t]he
UN has responded to Saddam Hussein's provocation swiftly, strongly
and unanimously. ... Saddam should be in no doubt that the Security
Council is united and determined." President Clinton issued the
following statement (12 November):

"With one voice, the Security Council has made it clear that
Iraq's actions are unacceptable, that it must submit to
investigations into Baghdad's ballistic missile, biological,
chemical and nuclear weapons programs, and that sanctions will
remain in place until Iraq cooperates. For Iraq, there is one
simple way out of the box Saddam Hussein has put it in: comply with
the will of the international community."

Of the five States who had abstained on 23 October, Egypt's
Ambassador to the UN, Nabil El-Araby, said his Government had "no
alternative but to support the resolution,"; France's Ambassador,
Alain Dejammet, said that "right to the last minute we thought
reason would prevail. Unfortunately that was not the case,"; and
Kenya's Ambassador, Njunga Mahuga, said that the resolution was
"balanced and sends a clear message to Iraq."

However, Russia's Ambassador, Sergei Lavrov, speaking to
reporters after the vote, was insistent that the vote should not be
interpreted as backing for the US approach to the crisis, which he
characterised as the view that "there is only one way out - to be
firm until the very end and to use as much force as necessary...
Wrong. This is a very wrong assumption." Lavrov also questioned the
legitimacy of the US using warplanes to accompany U2 flights:
"[O]ur question [is] - what was the arrangement for these planes to
fly under the authority of the Special Commission?"

13 November Expulsion

Iraq finally ordered the immediate expulsion of all US UNSCOM
officials on 13 November. In a statement carried by the Iraqi News
Agency (INA), the Government stated: "All American inspectors
should leave Iraq immediately until the American administration and
the Security Council decide to review their irresponsible policy
and their dealing with Iraq." The 6 US inspectors were ordered to
leave Iraq by land. The same day, speaking at the UN in New York,
Tariq Aziz told reporters: "UNSCOM is supposed to be an
international agency. It can work with or without Americans. There
are many inspectors working under UNSCOM." The Security Council
issued a statement on the evening of 13 November condemning Iraq
"in the strongest terms" and demanding the "immediate and
unequivocal revocation of this action." UNSCOM Chair Richard Butler
reacted (13 November) by raising the issue of what damage to
UNSCOM's efforts Iraq may have already achieved: "In this last 10
days when they were moving toward what happened in the last 24
hours, they started to impede our cameras, move equipment, prevent
our inspections..." Butler predicted that his teams would soon be
back in Iraq "one way or another": "We have to find a way to bring
Iraq back to its senses on this issue and to get inspectors back in
the country."

As soon as the expulsion was announced, Butler withdrew all his
inspectors from the country. He later (14 November) defended this
move against reported criticism by China and Russia: "Had I allowed
the Americans to be pushed, ejected from the country on six hours'
notice and stayed there with a non-American UNSCOM, I would simply
have completed Saddam Hussein's policy for him." Butler said he
understood that some Council members would have preferred to
consult with him before he made his decision, but added that the
"awfully short time-frame we were placed under" had made this
impossible.

On 14 November, the Security Council convened the board of arms
commissioners, which normally meets twice a year to advise UNSCOM,
to discuss the crisis. The move apparently came at the behest of
Russia. The same day, the Russian Duma passed a resolution urging
Yeltsin to "take all necessary measures not to allow the use of any
military force against the Republic of Iraq." The same day, Defence
Minister Igor Sergeyev said he was confident that "there is enough
sober-mindedness around to resolve the situation in Iraq without
military intervention." A very different tone was set by UK Foreign
Secretary Cook and US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright,
meeting in Edinburgh on 14 November. Albright told reporters:

"The Foreign Secretary informed me of Britain's intention to
beef up its forces in the Gulf at the same time we are doing so...
Hopefully, this will help persuade Saddam Hussein that there is no
salvation in defiance and no reward for recalcitrance."

On 15 November, Iraq's Babel newspaper, owned by Saddam
Hussein's eldest son, Uday, argued that "American and British
interests, Embassies and naval ships...in the Arab region should be
the targets of military operations and...attacks by Arab political
forces."