"In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down—my opinion. Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form." – Steve Ballmer, Microsoft, in Washington Post interview.

The TeleRead take: So what do you think, gang? I believe they’ll have to kill off some Luddite babyboomers first. But you never know where their obits will appear, if you take a Monster.com founder seriously. As for e-books already some kids in housing projects prefer them over the paper variety, because, says a Richmond teacher, they’d rather press a button than turn pages.

Unless, as you said, there was a mass genocide of Baby Boomers and the Mini Baby Boomers.

Closer to that idea in 10 years? Absolutely, but I think the complete scenario he invisions would be closer to 20 – 30 years.

As for the other article, I don’t think drastically slashes e-book prices is the missing key. I DO think no e-book should EVER cost as much as the paper book version.

But what that price will be will be determined by the market place.

What I believe will be the key is finding/creating/developing the right content – delivery – device scenario.

The right choice of devices (meaning a selection of prices and features across a wide range, from dirt cheap to “luxury” models) that allow people to easily purchase content of THEIR choice for THEIR device of choice at a REASONABLE price will be the key.

I don’t know. Ballmer and the kids may have something. I brought a hardcover book to work to read over lunch today. I usually read an ebook on my PDA. I found it annoying to have to move more than my thumb to turn the page. You get used to things faster than you realize.

In between feeding my e-book addiction, I must admit to utilizing my local library to feed my overall reading addiction. I’ve found once you get used to e-reading, going back to paper seems so … “old” and I’m over 40, lol.

God, I hope not Robert. Re-reading the same old stuff over and over … UGH!

I think as long as writers have a legitimate chance at earning a living entertaining all of the millions of readers, they will continue to write.

Whether that will take the form of publishers, self-publishing or serialization remains to be seen. But I believe, just as in music, writers will continue to write if they can earn some compensation for it.

Some musicians may be content to entertain themselves in the privacy of their own homes, but writers need an audience.

If you write a story and there is no one there to read it, have you really told a story?

Technology changes work in exponential scales. For years, it seems like nothing changes, and then everything is changed. But if you take logarithms, you can see it happening. I think the death of paper will be like this. Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen the first gradual declines in paper demand. In offices, fewer pages are being printed, more stored (and read) digitally. In newspapers, fewer pages are being produced, smaller formats being published, etc. In books, eBooks have been a joke for years (growing fast but still zero). I’m old enough, and a former telecom guy, to remember when the telecom people made that joke about data (it’s always growing fast but always only 5% of traffic–oops).

Time scales are rough, but Balmer can certainly afford a nice logarithm calculator.

Unlike Robert, I fear that people will stop reading novels but, maybe, not stop writing them.

No magazines or paper books produced in 10 years time? Utter nonsense.

I can’t see this happening in the next thirty years. people like paper, it’s still vastly more convenient and easier to use. Don’t get me wrong, I like e, I just don’t think it’s a viable replacement for paper in the next ten years.

If we don’t get all of those, then you don’t have a viable replacement for the aesthetics of paper. People like paper, they’re quite attached to it. It will take at least one generation (40 years) after epaper become fully usable (see 3 points above) before it totally replaces print.

Re electronic copies of magazines … they wish. So you go to the doctor’s surgery and instead of a pile of mags to flip through there’s an ashtray with a few 1gb memory cards in? You’re about to board a plane and you decide to spend a couple of minutes browsing data chips at the news stand?

Printed mags aren’t going anywhere. I can get all the tech and gaming news I want off the internet, but sometimes I just want to chill out on the sofa or in bed with a PAPER book or magazine.

This debate always gets framed with the question of “the future of reading,” as it was at the latest BEA conference in LA. The discussion always revolves around the imminent threat of the digital world with mp3s, YouTube and text messaging. Book fans always fall back on the permanence of storytelling; true, but we humans were enjoying stories for thousands of years before anybody even knew how to write or read. You see, it’s not really about books and reading.

What it’s really about is imagination, creativity, curiosity, wonder and community – what we might call the human factor. Books and language are merely technologies – the book is the hardware and the words are the software. The invention of the book and it’s mass production allowed us to experience our humanity in new ways. Video, recorded audio and mass communications have done the same.

But in the history of progress the human factor has always dominated the technology factor and this will determine the future of books as well. What we want are ways to experience our world-through our imaginations, our creativity, our wonder, our curiosity and our sociability-in any way or form, whether through books, videos, social networking or cell phones. Print books will continue to exist as one form of technology and reader experience, but digital media is something that will revolutionize the book because it allows us a fuller experience to actually dwell within our stories and explore and share our wonder. eBooks will be another blessing.

Novels and story telling aren’t dead. The future is still wide open and certainly what we will make of it.

But a complete digital delivery system in 10 years is too soon.

Even if Apple and Microsoft jumped in with booth feet and Amazon, Sony, Bookeen, Astak, et al released e-reading devices that were cheaper, the uptake would not make the Ballmer prediction doable in such a short time.

As popular as the iPod is, not everyone has one (me included) even though you can get the base model for below $70. Best Buy and everyone else still sell physical CDs in their stores.

I agree, Aaron. But timing is something I can’t really predict with confidence. We’re not really at square one, we’re actually probably half way there. I’ve been writing, researching and sharing digital media for almost 25 years now. It’s just all done on computer, which makes for a lousy reading experience. I’ve just been waiting for the last piece of the puzzle and then everything created digitally over the past 25 years is instantly available.

Jeff Bezos says Amazon customers who buy a Kindle have increased their purchases 2.6 times, which just begs the question: when are you going to give them away then? The key is being able to take advantage of all the inventory out there–such as that created by Google–and not have to pass through the Amazon cash register on each item.

Recent Comments

Anne { @David- I think freedictionary.com needs to add something along the lines of "as long as the specs don't allow for the addition of a variety... } – Aug 02, 1:56 PM

David Rothman { I'll go with this definition of "standard" from thefreedictionary.com: "A set of specifications that are adopted within an industry to allow compatibility between products." Thanks,... } – Aug 01, 11:25 PM

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