Thursday, February 26, 2015

After the fall of Mosul Moqtada al-Sadr mobilized his
followers into a new militia called the Peace Brigades. They along with other
Shiite armed groups provided the manpower to confront the insurgency that was lost
by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) during the summer. In February 2015 Sadr withdrew
his men from the front however after Sheikh Qasim al-Janabi was killed in
Baghdad. By doing so he was attempting to maintain his nationalist credentials,
while also taking shots at his rivals.

In the middle of February
2015 Moqtada al-Sadr froze his two militias the Promised Day Brigades and
the Peace Brigades. On February 17, he answered a question by one of his
followers to try to explain his decision. Sadr called for parties to end their
boycott of the government. This was a reference to the Union of Iraq Forces,
the main Sunni block, and Iyad Allawi’s National Coalition pulling
out of parliament to protest the murder of Babil Sheikh Qasim Janabi.
Janabi and his entourage were picked up at a checkpoint on February 13. All but
one of that group was later found
dead in eastern Baghdad’s Shaab neighborhood. Militias were immediately
suspected of the murders due to where the bodies were found. That was the
subject of the rest of Sadr’s statement. He attacked what he called “brazen
militias” who were out to undermine the government and did not follow the chain
of command laid out by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). Sadr’s comments had two
main goals. First, Sadr likes to portray himself as a nationalist statesman. In
recent years he has often taken steps to show national unity such as when he
backed the no confidence vote against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with Iyad
Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement and the Kurdish Alliance in 2012. This was
another one of those occasions. Two lists were walking out of the government to
protest the murder of a prominent sheikh. Sadr wanted to show solidarity with
them, while also advising them not to abandon their positions, as it would
achieve little. Second, Sadr was taking the time to attack his rivals, namely
Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (AAH). AAH was originally created
as part of a covert alliance between Sadr and Iran to carry out attacks upon
the Americans. Later, Iran grew tired of working with Sadr who they believed
was too difficult, and encouraged his top lieutenant and AAH leader Qais
Khazali to break away. Since then Khazali has claimed to be the true heir of
Sadr’s father Ayatollah Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr’s legacy, and the two groups
have fought
each other before. Sadr has often attacked AAH, especially for its ties to
Iran. For example, when AAH went to fight in Syria at the behest of Tehran,
Sadr called them “foreign
entities”. The death of Janabi provided the opportunity for Sadr to take
another jab at AAH even if they weren’t involved in the killing. It was also
connected to his nationalist position, as he believes that AAH serves Tehran
rather than Baghdad.

Moqtada al-Sadr’s freeze is only a temporary one. The threat
from the Islamic State is too great, and not staying in that fight would
threaten Sadr’s credentials. At the same time, the death of Sheikh Janabi
threatened the national unity government, and Sadr felt he needed to respond to
that. His attacks upon other militias also showed that the Shiite armed
factions are not a monolithic group. Rather there are several different groups,
each with its own agenda some of which do not like each other such as the
Sadrists and Asaib Ahl Al-Haq. That rivalry extends to the battlefield as well
as the two refuse to work with each other. That begs the question of what will
happen between these organizations once the insurgency is beaten back, because
their animosity still runs deep and they could very well go back to fighting
each other. Before the government did nothing about that as Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki was using AAH to cut into the Sadr movement. Premier Haider
Abadi on the other hand does not have a dog in that fight. It will be a major
test to assert the primacy of the state over the use of force in the country
with so many militias emboldened by the war. While many men who were volunteers
will be demobilized the groups will want to keep their core fighters and there
is still the conflict in Syria, which could quickly become a focus of the
pro-Iran factions once again as it was before the Iraqi insurgency was reborn. This
is just one of the long term issues that Iraq will face after specific incidents
such as the murder of Sheikh Janabi pass from the headlines.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Lebanese Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah recently
acknowledged that his group was involved in the war in Iraq. This came as no
surprise as Hezbollah advisers were said to be in Iraq soon after Mosul fell,
and in July one of its commanders died in the country. Just like Hezbollah’s
previous time in Iraq during the U.S. occupation it is working as an adjunct
for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

In a speech on February
16, 2015 Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah admitted that his organization
was active in Iraq. He said that it only had a “limited presence” in the
country, and called on others to join the fight not only in Iraq, but in Syria
as well. Nasrallah was stating the obvious since Hezbollah’s presence in Iraq
had been noted months beforehand.

After Mosul fell in June 2014, Nasrallah offered to protect
the shrines in Iraq. By the next month there were reports
that around 250 Hezbollah members were advising militias in Iraq in
coordination with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). That might
have increased to 500
since then. That was confirmed at the end of July when a Hezbollah commander
Ibrahim Mohammed al-Haj was killed
near Mosul. Haj was a veteran Hezbollah member who helped set off the July 2006
war with Israel. Since then there have been more reports of Hezbollah advisers
active along the frontlines. In October
for example, they were said to have helped in the operation to clear Babil’s
Jurf al-Sakhr. When Iran came to aid Iraq in June it was inevitable that
Hezbollah would enter the fray as well. Hezbollah is involved in most major
Iranian operations such as Syria currently and Iraq in the past.

In 2003
the IRGC Quds Force asked for Hezbollah’s assistance in Iraq to oppose the U.S.
occupation. Hezbollah deployed Unit 3800 to work with Iraqi militias. It
provided advisers, brought Iraqis to Lebanon for training, and provided funding
and weapons as well. It also worked hand in hand with the Quds Force on major operations
such as the January 2007 Asaib Ahl Al-Haq raid
upon the Joint Coordination Center in Karbala that killed five American
soldiers. Afterward Unit 3800 commander Ali Musa Daqduq was arrested for his
role in the attack. From 2003-2011 Hezbollah was brought in by Tehran to not
only facilitate its anti-American operations, but to help with its Iraqi
allies. The Iranians have a history of talking down to and mistreating Iraqis
dating back to the Iran-Iraq War when it put together the Badr Brigade to
oppose Saddam Hussein. Many Iraqi militiamen made similar complaints about
Iranians when they went to Iran for training post-03. Hezbollah being Arabs
were able to forge much better relations.

Hezbollah has consistently provided support for Iran in the
Middle East and internationally so it was no surprise when it re-entered Iraq
after the 2014 insurgent surge. It is currently playing the same role in Iraq
that it is doing in Syria providing support for the IRGC and irregular forces.
In fact, Hezbollah has worked with many of the same groups in both countries
such as Asaib Ahl Al-Haq, Kataib Hezbollah, the Badr Organization, the Khorasani
Brigade, and Abu Fadhl Al-Abbas Brigade. Its relationship with the first couple
groups goes back to the U.S. occupation as well. As long as Tehran is
militarily involved in Iraq so will Hezbollah.

SOURCES

ABC/AP, “Hezbollah Commander who
triggered the 2006 war Killed in Iraq,” 8/1/14

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The third week of February 2015 had roughly the same number
of attacks as the previous week, but there was a decided increase in deaths.
This was due to a large number of people being executed by the Islamic State
(IS) especially in Anbar after it took large sections of the city of Baghdadi.
Otherwise overall casualties have been slowly declining during the month.

There were 165 reported security incidents in Iraq from
February 15-21. That was roughly the same as the 170 seen the week before.
Baghdad led the way again with 45 incidents followed by 36 in Anbar, 33 in
Salahaddin, 30 in Ninewa, 15 in Diyala, two in Babil, and then one each in
Basra, Kirkuk, Wasit, and Sulaymaniya. For the month there have been an average
of 23.3 attacks per day. That’s slightly down from the 26.2 seen during
January.

The big change in the third week of February was a large
increase in the number of deaths. They went from 406 the previous week to 573.
355 of those, 61% were in Anbar where the Islamic State executed 233 people in
Baghdadi after the city was taken, and another 50
in Hit and 45
in Rawa. That was the most deaths since 730 were reported from January
8-14. The dead were made up of 43 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF),
27 peshmerga, and 503 civilians. The number of wounded actually went down from
559 to 364, which was the lowest since 340 reported from December 15-21. The
injured included 27 ISF, 8 peshmerga, and 329 civilians. Despite the big leap
in the number killed overall casualties have actually been going down throughout
the month. The first week there were 1,068 dead and wounded, dropping to 965
the next week, and 937 the third.

Violence
In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jun 1-7

228

612

1,020

Jun 8-14

234

1,889

890

Jun 15-21

179

803

759

Jun 22-28

203

733

777

Jun 29-30

59

127

236

JUN

901

4,172

3,701

Jul 1-7

203

526

651

Jul 8-14

214

577

628

Jul 15-21

230

444

1,009

Jul 22-28

224

589

801

Jul 29-31

66

163

230

JUL

937

2,299

3,319

Aug 1-8

270

1,122

885

Aug 9-14

180

710

1,152

Aug 15-21

150

731

499

Aug 22-28

156

523

798

Aug 29-31

59

125

289

AUG

815

3,211

3,623

Sep 1-7

169

616

751

Sep 8-14

168

467

731

Sep 15-21

170

625

794

Sep 22-28

157

396

576

Sep 29-30

49

118

252

SEP

713

2,222

3,104

Oct 1-7

175

456

687

Oct 8-14

189

560

880

Oct 15-21

159

499

780

Oct 22-28

160

346

596 + 1,230

Oct 29-31

72

574

227

OCT

754

2,434

3,170
+ 1,230

Nov 1-7

154

611

828

Nov 8-14

134

470

607

Nov 15-21

139

323

479

Nov 22-28

139

321

640

Nov 29-30

40

206

535

NOV

606

1,931

3,089

Dec 1-7

148

581

482

Dec 8-14

156

233 + 166

444 + 1,113

Dec 15-21

133

377

340

Dec 22-28

161

558

432

Dec 29-31

91

117

233

DEC

689

2,032

3,044

Jan 1-7

184

434

464

Jan 8-14

170

730

493

Jan 15-21

182

390

515

Jan 22-28

189

466

894

Jan 29-31

90

288

529

JAN

815

2,308

2,895

Feb 1-7

155

380

688

Feb 8-14

170

406

559

Feb 15-21

165

573

364

Violence
In Iraq By Province, Feb. 2015

Province

Feb
1-7

Feb
8-14

Anbar

35 Incidents

60 Killed: 9 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 46
Civilians

128 Wounded: 4 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 116
Civilians

14 Shootings

2 IEDs

1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb

2 Suicide Car Bombs

5 Mortars

1 Mine

28 Incidents

99 Killed: 26 ISF, 73 Civilians

19 Wounded: 19 Civilians

19 Shootings

1 IED

5 Suicide Bombers

4 Mortars

1 Rocket

Babil

10 Incidents

7 Killed: 2 ISF, 5 Civilians

27 Wounded: 7 ISF, 20 Civilians

5 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Grenade

10 Incidents

16 Killed: 3 ISF, 13 Civilians

49 Wounded: 10 ISF, 39 Civilians

3 IEDs

3 Sticky Bombs

1 Suicide Car Bomb

1 Car Bomb

1 Mine

Baghdad

57 Incidents

117 Killed: 2 ISF, 115 Civilians

355 Wounded: 10
ISF, 345 Civilians

19 Shootings

35 IEDs

3 Sticky Bombs

2 Suicide Bombers

3 Car Bombs

49 Incidents

107 Killed: 2 ISF, 105 Civilians

276: 11 ISF, 265 Civilians

14 Shootings

25 IEDs

3 Sticky Bombs

2 Suicide Bombers

6 Mortars

Diyala

5 Incidents

10 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 8 Peshmerga, 1
Civilian

2 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga

4 Shootings

1 IED

13 Incidents

9 Killed: 2 ISF, 7 Civilians

1 Wounded: 1 Civilian

7 Shootings

1 IED

2 Sticky Bombs

Kirkuk

4 Incidents

2 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian

4 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga

1 Shooting

2 IEDs

4 Car Bombs

5 Incidents

5 Killed: 5 Civilians

7 Wounded: 7 Civilians

3 Shootings

20 IEDs

1 Mortar

Ninewa

18 Incidents

107 Killed: 3 ISF, 104 Civilians

6 Wounded: 6 Civilians

11 Shootings

28 IEDs

1 Suicide Car Bomb

6 Car Bombs

1 Mortar

28 Incidents

71 Killed: 10 ISF, 2Peshmerga, 59
Civilians

23 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 19
Civilians

21 Shootings

9 IEDs

1 Suicide Bomber

Salahaddin

25 Incidents

75 Killed: 34 ISF, 41 Civilians

165 Wounded: 38 ISF, 127 Civilians

14 Shootings

38 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

2 Suicide Car Bombs

33 Incidents

98 Killed: 70 ISF, 28 Civilians

178 Wounded: 93 ISF, 85 Civilians

19 Shootings

5 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

11 Suicide Car Bombs

1 Car Bomb

1 Mortar

Wasit

1 Incident

2 Killed: 2 Civilians

1 Wounded: 1 Civilian

1 Shooting

-

Province

Feb 15-21

Anbar

36 Incidents

355 Killed: 31 ISF, 324
Civilians

37 Wounded: 37 Civilians

26 Shootings

41 IEDs

1 Mortar

1 Rocket

Babil

2 Incidents

5 Wounded: 5 Civilians

2 IEDs

Baghdad

45 Incidents

69 Killed: 3 ISF, 66
Civilians

160 Wounded: 3 ISF, 157
Civilians

17 Shootings

23 IEDs

5 Sticky Bombs

3 Mortars

Basra

1 Incident

1 Killed: 1 Civilian

Diyala

15 Incidents

36 Killed: 7 ISF, 12
Peshmerga, 17 Civilians

30 Wounded: 23 ISF, 7
Civilians

6 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

2 Suicide Car Bombs

Kirkuk

1 Incident

15 Killed: 15 Peshmerga

1 Shooting

Ninewa

30 Incidents

17 Killed: 17 Civilians

13 Wounded: 8 Peshmerga 5
Civilians

17 Shootings

22 IEDs

Salahaddin

33 Incidents

80 Killed: 2 ISF, 78
Civilians

118 Wounded: 1 ISF, 117
Civilians

20 Shootings

30 IEDs

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Suicide Bomber

3 Suicide Car Bombs

3 Mortars

1 Rocket

Sulaymaniya

1 Incident

2 Grenades

Wasit

1 Incident

1 Wounded: 1 Civilian

1 Shooting

Car
Bombs In Iraq Feb. 2015

Date

Location

Dead

Wounded

Feb 1

Feb 2

Khabaz
x4, Kirkuk

Samarra,
Salahaddin

21

26

Feb 3

Karrada
x3, Baghdad

5

17

Feb 4

Haditha,
Anbar

3

Feb 5

Ramadi,
Anbar

Jazeera,
Salahaddin

13

13

Feb 6

Feb 7

Tigris
Axis x7, Ninewa

Totals

18

39

59

Feb 8

Feb 9

Jabber
x3 & Siniya, Salahaddin

20

35

Feb 10

Mahmudiya,
Babil

4

11

Feb 11

Mahmudiya,
Babil

Camp
Speicher x2, Dijla, Mikishifa, Muthanna Facility, Salahaddin

23

71

Feb 12

Mikishifa,
Tikrit x2, Salahaddin

22

27

Feb 13

Feb 14

Totals

14

69

144

Feb 15

Edheim,
Diyala

6

21

Feb 16

Abbasid
& Camp Speicher, Salahaddin

4

30

Feb 17

Feb 18

Outside
Samarra, Salahaddin

7

18

Feb 19

Feb 20

Feb 21

Qazzanah,
Diyala

4

Totals

5

17

73

After a high number of car bombs (Vehicle Borne Improvised
Explosive Devices) in the first 14 days of the month, they went down to just 5 from
February 15-21. Those resulted in 17 deaths and 73 wounded. There were two
VBIEDs in Diyala and three in Salahaddin. All of those attacks were aimed at
either pro-government forces or government offices showing their continued use
in tactical operations by IS rather than the normal terrorist attacks aimed at
civilians.

During the third week of February the Iraqi Security Forces
and tribes continued to fight to reclaim Baghdadi in Anbar. Most of the city
was cleared by the end of the week, but confrontations with the insurgents
continued. While IS was in control of Baghdadi it terrorized the population by
carrying out a number of executions. On February 15 it kidnapped a number of
police and shot three
of them. The next day it killed the remaining 27
officers. Then they went after civilians executing 100 on February
17, 50 on February
19, and another 26 on February
20. Not to be outdone in the brutality department IS burned 45 people in Rawa,
and 50
in Hit. For six out of the seven days of the week insurgents also assaulted
the southern and downtown sections of Ramadi in their continued attempt to take
the provincial capital. The IS attack upon Baghdadi was another example of how
the group still has large offensive capabilities in the province. It also threatened
the U.S. training effort in the governorate as the Assad Air Base where
American forces are training Iraqis is right next door. The fact that IS was
not able to seize the city on the fist day of the assault however and the
importance of its location also meant that it would eventually be pushed out
and suffer heavy casualties in the process from both the ISF, tribes, and
Coalition air strikes.

Baghdad continued to suffer from a steady stream of
improvised explosive devices (IEDs). 23 went off during the week killing 32
people, 46% of all deaths, and injured another 129, 80% of the total. The
Islamic State’s VBIED bases around the capital have largely been disrupted and
the group is using most of them for tactical attacks upon the government forces
in places like Salahaddin. That has left IEDs as the main form of attack in the
capital. While not as deadly as car bombs, most IEDs are set off in public
places like shops and markets to harm as many civilians as possible and are the
main driver of casualties for the last several months.

After militants were disrupted by a large security operation
in Muqtadiya in January they have now regrouped and violence is back up to what
it was before. There were 15 incidents during the week with attacks in the
north in Edhaim where IS assaulted the dam there twice, in Muqtadiya, which was
just cleared, and in Baquba the provincial capital. Seven mass graves with 24
people, including 12 peshmerga were discovered in Jalawla on February
19 as well. In total, there were 36 deaths and 30 Wounded during the week.

In Ninewa IS continued harassing attacks upon the peshmerga
mostly in the Makhmour, Sinjar, and Badush areas to the north and west of
Mosul. There were 15 attacks in those regions during the week. IS began these
attacks in January and they have been going on every week since then. This was
in response to the Kurds recent gains in the province, which have threatened
the Islamic State’s supply lines to western Ninewa and into Syria.

IS also attacked up and down Salahaddin in its continued
attempt to stretch the ISF and militia forces there. Some of these
confrontations were quite large such as on February
15 when 23 militiamen were killed and another 40 wounded outside of
Samarra. That city was also hit with two suicide car bombs. A third struck Camp
Speicher. All together the three VBIEDs killed 2 soldiers, 9 militiamen and
injured another 48 members of the popular brigades. IS also carried out more of
its intimidation tactics against the local population. On February 16 it kidnapped
120 people from Rabadh and blew up 13 houses and council buildings in Dour.
February
20 it blew up 12 houses in Shirqat. Finally, on February 21 in kidnapped
23 people north of Tikrit and burned
three families alive inside their houses in Dour. A big confrontation is
coming up in Salahaddin as militia and army forces are preparing for a major
assault to try to take Tikrit, which fell to insurgents in June.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com