U.S. forecaster sees 75% chance of neutral weather conditions in fall

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(Reuters) - There is about a 75% chance that a weather pattern marked by average long-term ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall and atmospheric winds will prevail in the Northern Hemisphere this fall, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.

The probability that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation-neutral (ENSO) weather pattern will then continue through the spring of 2020 is at 55% to 60%, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

ENSO-neutral conditions refer to those periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña are present, often coinciding with the transition between the two weather patterns, according to the CPC.

“During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average,” it said.

El Niño emerged in 2018 for the first time since 2016, persisting till August 2019. The weather pattern has been linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods.

Reporting by Harshith Aranya in Bengaluru; Editing by Edmund Blair and Paul Simao