Policies for an independent Scotland? Putting the Independence White Paper in its fiscal context

The potential consequences of independence for taxation, public services, and the welfare system in Scotland are a key battleground in the ongoing campaigning ahead of the independence referendum this September. In its White Paper, the Scottish Government sets out a number of tax and spending changes that it argues would lead to a fairer and more economically successful Scotland. In this Briefing Note we discuss a number of the most significant policy changes suggested, and place them in the context of the fiscal backdrop that an independent Scotland looks likely to inherit.

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New calculations – based on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – suggest that an independent Scotland would face a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP (£8.6 billion in today’s terms) in its first year of independence were it to inherit a population share of the UK’s ...

New calculations – based on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – suggest that an independent Scotland would face a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP (£8.6 billion in today’s terms) in its first year of independence were it to inherit a population share of the UK’s ...