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Inside the Trip – Analyzing the Derby Trail (También en Español)

Gotham and Withers Stakes winner Samraat is one of Pat Cummings' picks in the Kentucky Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)

A Kentucky Derby trail full of data comes to an end on Saturday. What will matter most?

As has been long espoused in dozens of blogs here for America’s Best Racing, the statistics collected by Trakus, relative to ground coverage and individual sectional times, only tell one part of the story. Did another horse run faster, cover more ground, close with a particularly fast final sectional time? How much will it matter when the Derby pace is slower than expected, when Palace Malice goes crazy fast with a change in tactics thanks to blinkers going on, or when a confirmed speed runner stumbles badly? The most well-intended handicapper could see their hours-long, meticulously-crafted prognostication of the race change in an instant.

Finding the winner of a race requires a delicate balancing act – what tips the scales in favor of how you see a race going? Was it pace, class, connections, equipment changes, good luck, bad luck, or something otherwise unexplainable that led to a particular result?

So with that, we offer you a review of the most interesting data amongst the field assembled for the 140th Kentucky Derby.

Florida-Prepped Derby Contenders

Wildcat Red and General a Rod have met on three occasions this season, with each winning one race, and the former just in front of the latter in their last meeting when second and third, respectively, in the Florida Derby. But are they that similar?

General a Rod covered 30 feet more than Wildcat Red when winning the Gulfstream Park Derby, 35 feet more in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream when second to Wildcat Red, and 16 feet more than that rival in the Florida Derby when the now-injured Constitution won with Wildcat Red second ahead of General a Rod in third.

At the finish of the three races, General a Rod won by a head in the first, lost by a head in the second, and was 1 ¼ lengths behind Wildcat Red in the third. The net of their three meetings leaves us with Wildcat Red’s cumulative margin being 1 ¼ lengths better. But from a ground coverage standpoint, General a Rod has traveled 81 feet, a combined 9 ½ lengths, more than Wildcat Red in those races.

GENERAL A ROD AND WILDCAT RED SEEMED EVEN MATCHED DURING THE FLORIDA PREP RACES

Raw math never works well in these comparisons as the actual results are much more nuanced than that. But what you can’t really deny is that over those three races, General a Rod did, in fact, run faster than Wildcat Red. Trying to pick between the two horses that have done all their work in Florida, General a Rod would be the one.

Tampa Bay Derby winner Ring Weekend misses the big race, but the second from that race, Sam F. Davis winner Vinceremos, is in the field. The son of Pioneerof the Nile had the fastest final quarter of the Tampa Bay Derby, home in 25.51 seconds. He was last in the Blue Grass Stakes after traveling wide throughout, the opposite of his rail-skimming experience in the Sam F. Davis, where he covered the shortest trip.

Keeneland-Prepped Derby Contenders

It’s easy to think Medal Count could improve off his Blue Grass Stakes second when behind Dance With Fate. Drawn in gate 13, the Dale Romans charge covered 31 feet more than the winner, a distance that approximates to 3 ½ lengths, roughly double his margin of defeat. Traveling no less than five wide the trip, Medal Count actually ran faster throughout the Blue Grass than any other horse, averaging 37.5 mph while Dance With Fate did in 37.4.

Ninth going around the first turn, Medal Count was actually running faster than any horse in the race at the end of the first quarter-mile. To run wide and maintain position, a horse has to run faster than those to its inside. Take your hands and put them out in front of your chest – now go up and turn left with both of them while keeping both hands next to each other. Your right arm will have to move faster to maintain position next to the left.

Now, back to Dance With Fate.

He was a compelling possibility for the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile off his run in the FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita. The eventual Blue Grass winner had covered extra ground from the start of the FrontRunner, going 43 feet more than Bond Holder. He had a plum draw in two for the Juvenile and ended up going wider than New Year’s Day, but was nowhere near the pace as he had been in the Frontrunner. While Trakus is not installed at Golden Gate, the son of Two Step Salsa was wide from the word go, drawn widest in a field of eight, and almost assuredly traversed the widest trip then. For his Blue Grass run, he was wider than most, and did his most significant running from the outside. Seemingly a product of the Polytrack, he ran the fastest final quarter-mile of any Derby horse this season, coming home in 23.94 seconds, a statistic that really cannot be read into given the surface.

DANCE WITH FATE RAN THE FASTEST FINAL QUARTER MILE OF ANY DERBY CONTENDER

Could 13th place-finisher Harry’s Holiday land a blow anywhere in the first four of the Derby? Reported by connections to have emerged from the race without a shoe and with a lung infection, he had a fairly efficient trip early only to backpedal gamely late. While Trakus is not installed at Turfway, a visual inspection of the Spiral would show he covered an inordinate amount of extra ground there, and may have been asked to do too much, too soon in that spot.

California-Prepped Derby Contenders

California Chrome is a deserving favorite for the 140th Kentucky Derby, and has done a bit of everything, bringing a 10-race history into the race, longest in the field. He’s done all the work up front, he’s covered extra ground, he’s settled just behind the speed. His last defeat came in the Golden State Juvenile at Santa Anita on Breeders’ Cup weekend when he finished sixth, beaten by three lengths. The track was considered quite speed favoring on that occasion, and despite an inside draw and covering one of the shortest trips, he was not placed forwardly on that occasion.

Fast forward to the start of his current four-race streak, which opened with two wins in California-bred company, and the Derby favorite’s trips were much wider, albeit facile tallies in the King Glorious Stakes at Hollywood and Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita. In the latter, California Chrome covered the second-widest trip and won by more than five lengths.

There are plenty of others emerging from the left coast, though, and not to be ignored. Chitu, drawn wide, went forward in the Robert B. Lewis, as is his normal style. Candy Boy, drawn inside, sat off the pace and swung out at the end of the far turn, running down Chitu to win. The margin was just a half-length, but Chitu covered 31 feet more than Candy Boy, a distance approximating to 3 ½ lengths.

CANDY BOY IS ONE OF THE FORGOTTEN CALIFORNIA HORSES

Much is being made of the now-scratched Hoppertunity’s gallop-out from the Santa Anita Derby and whether he was really running after California Chrome in the last stages. Is it, at all, a negative toward the favorite? The data doesn’t suggest that. Hoppertunity still ran 0.72 seconds slower in the final quarter compared with California Chrome, who was being eased down in the final stages. In the segment from the eighth-pole to the sixteenth-pole, California Chrome covered the trip in 5.91 seconds while Hoppertunity did it in 6.14 seconds. As Victor Espinoza took a hold of California Chrome after that, he slowed through the final sixteenth, getting that segment in 6.55 seconds compared with Hoppertunity’s 6.46. Any real slowing that one saw from California Chrome seems man-made as opposed to equine-related.

New York-Prepped Derby Contenders

The battles between Samraat and Uncle Sigh made the long winter at Aqueduct home to some of the most exciting Derby preps in recent memory. With massive near full-race duels in the Withers and Gotham, the two got some separation in the Wood Memorial when Samraat finished second to Wicked Strong while Uncle Sigh managed only a fifth-place finish. The battle between these two is somewhat similar to the comparison between Wildcat Red and General a Rod.

SAMRAAT AND UNCLE SIGH BATTLED IT OUT IN THE GOTHAM STAKES WITH SAMRAAT COMING OUT THE VICTOR

Between the Withers and Gotham, Samraat won both races and covered 61 feet more than Uncle Sigh, a distance equivalent to more than seven lengths. The tables were turned from a trip standpoint in the Wood as Uncle Sigh broke from gate nine in a 10-horse Wood Memorial field, two spots farther adrift than Samraat, and paid the price for a wide berth. From that race, Uncle Sigh covered 49 feet more than winner Wicked Strong, and 33 feet more than second-place finisher Samraat. The fifth placing, beaten eight lengths, was a career low for Uncle Sigh, but it came with a slow start and then the extra ground, making that margin look worse than it may have been.

Post Position Impact

The presence of speed horses drawn on the inside should lead to the field stretching out fairly early, potentially mitigating some of the extra ground coverage expected from wider draws. Uncle Sigh should enjoy a ground-saving trip drawing in gate three, the inverse of his experience in the Wood Memorial.

General a Rod has finally managed to draw inside Wildcat Red having been placed outside of him in three Florida starts. Danza, who saved ground from mid-pack in the Arkansas Derby, should get another perfect trip from four. With another pace presence in Chitu drawn outside of Wildcat Red, one would expect they could hook into their own private duel while catching the other inside speed early.

California Chrome is the deserving choice and has managed to run in the clear and avoid trouble in almost every one of his races. It’s almost impossible through any scenario seeing him get the lead early, especially with speed to his inside and two confirmed front-runners needing to cross from gates mid-pack. Expect him to sit in the second flight with Samraat in close attendance.

With about five or six horses interested in the early pace scrum, logic suggests some of them will back out of action and someone will find themselves a victim of bad Derby luck (also known as a tiring speed horse). That is potentially the problem with California Chrome’s draw given that the speed to his inside should clear a nice path for early ground-saving, but create possible trouble late in the race.

CALIFORNIA CHROME WINNING THE SANTA ANITA DERBY

Medal Count covered a load of extra ground last time (after a rail-skimming trip in his start two-back) and seems well drawn to track from just about any position Robby Albarado would like. Bred to enjoy this trip, he’s one who could run well with a two-to-three wide trip in the Derby, compared with the five-wide trip he had throughout the Blue Grass. Samraat’s position outside the favorite gives Jose Ortiz more options than Victor Espinoza, and that’s probably not a bad thing.

General a Rod has never been out of the trifecta and is another in line for a legitimate trip setup if he can rate behind the main pack of speed.

The three keys in my plays will be Samraat, Medal Count, and California Chrome. The first two have run well when encountering difficulty in running and the latter just seems to have an ability that could be beyond his peers.

Above all, best wishes for all participants to have a safe trip! Good luck and enjoy!

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999. Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.

Pat Cummings

Pat Cummings is the Director of Racing Information for Trakus. Based in Boston, Mass., Trakus provides full-field in-race tracking, instantaneous motion graphics, and real-time information to racetrack operators worldwide. Trakus is currently installed at racetracks in the USA, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Data analysis from Trakus appears on Twitter regularly @TrakusRacing.

Cummings also serves as the editor of DubaiRaceNight.com, a comprehensive website covering racing in Dubai and the United Arab Emirates. He has covered the Dubai World Cup on site each year since 2007 and provides selections for the entire season of racing in the United Arab Emirates and full-card analysis for all racing at Meydan. He also is the North American correspondent for Al Adiyat, a Dubai-based weekly racing publication.

Prior to joining Trakus, he worked for seven years in the financial services industry, and has served the racing industry in various capacities since 1999. Pat was the backup announcer at Philadelphia Park (now Parx Racing) from 1999 to 2009, and also has called cards at Atlantic City Race Course, Louisiana Downs, Lone Star Park, Manor Downs, and Monmouth Park.

A member of the Turf Publicists of America, Pat earned his MBA from Baylor University in Texas and a BA from Dickinson College in Pennsylvania.