(SUNDAY UPDATE) WEEK 11 FANTASY FOOTBALL FLEX RANKINGS: DOES WEATHER MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

Patrick Mayo, Staff WriterNovember 17, 2013

*****SUNDAY UPDATE: 11:50am ET*****(Scroll to bottom for RANKS)

It all makes sense now.

There just weren’t enough problematic injuries affecting Fantasy teams this week, so there simply had to be awful weather EVERYWHERE to mess with us. Frankly, this is the most press weather has received since it was revealed Obama knew Bill Ayers.

We’re looking at gusts of wind in Cincinnati and Chicago stronger than that Frosty doppelganger from the “Snowman Land” level of Mario 64. Actually, there’s even talk of tornados. I can’t speak too much on TWISTAS since I’m from Canada, and the government outlawed tornados nationwide in 1976.

Here’s the thing: Once a year, this exact day happens. All this weather news comes out, everyone panics and switches their lineups around. DON’T. Again, DO NOT DO THAT. Start all your normal players. If two players are close, go with the one that doesn’t have the chance to be a real life Bill Paxton. That’s only logical – but it stops there. Don’t go benching Brandon Marshall for Lance Moore, OK? (Fun fact: Three separate people have asked me that exact question this morning. And people say I’ve #LOSTIT) Usually, this frenzy leads to nothing. So don’t go benching your elite guys or bets ‘unders’ wherever possible: today will be a lot closer to normal than you think. It always is.

One thing I will suggest, if you have any kickers in these games, go replace them. Since kickers are 100% interchangeable, take one playing indoors or in a warm climate.

Also, Mike Pouncey is out for the Dolphins. That’s now three offensive linemen missing in Miami. Downgrade Lamar Miller and Ryan Tannehill, but just San Diego D/ST a big boost. They are widely available for you to stream.

WEEK 11 TOP 10 D/ST

SEA

ARZ

KC

CIN

NYJ

HOU

SD

CLE

BUF

DEN

If you want to be super sneaky (or stupid) at TE, I have a #LOSTIT prediction for you: Both Marcedes Lewis and Chris Gragg score TDs this week in their awesome match ups. Before you ask, yes, I was just as surprised as you when I found out Lewis wasn’t dead.

Tony Gonzalez is active, but not a great start. Guy’s old and banged up. No word yet on Vernon Davis, start making plans just in case.

Slow week for injury news really. Having now typed that, I’m fully expecting to wake up tomorrow morning and see my entire starting lineup suffer the same fate as the ringers on the 1992 Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball team. So be warned Brandon Marshall, tonight is not the night to pick that bar fight over Britain’s greatest prime minister. PIT THE ELDER!!!!!

Although, you may be in the market for a fill-in tight end. Tony Gonzalez (toe) and Vernon Davis (case of the dizzies) are legit game-time-decisions. We’ll know about Tony G around 11:45am when the inactives are released. And Davis? Who knows, he was cleared for practice but not yet to play. ANNNNNNDDDDD he’s in the second set of games so you’ll need to plan accordingly for that. Not too many options available after the early games, either. Among those owned in fewer than 50-percent of leagues, you’re looking at John Carlson > Charles Dice Clay > Anthony Fasano > Andrew Quarless > Brandon Myers. None are great alternatives.

I suppose the biggest name that will be missing in action in Week 11 is Terrelle Pryor. Not surprising, though. He’d been questionable all week. Honestly, this doesn’t chance much for me for the Raiders’ skill players. Houston is pretty legit at limiting quarterbacks and receivers to begin with. So what do we know about new starter Matt McGlion? Not much really… EXCEPT he took over for Pryor in the second half of that Eagles trashing two weeks ago and couldn’t stop dumping the ball off to Rashad Jennings. So I’m upgrading Jennings slightly because I anticipate more of the same; guy could challenge double-digit receptions by the end of the first half. But that’s it. I’m burying Denarius Moore and Rod Streater as they can not longer be trusted. Oh, two more things I know about McGlion: he’d be exponentially more hilarious if his name was McGroin and was underwhelming during his tenure at Penn State.

McGlion bumps Houston D/ST into startable territory as well. They’re still not a great play because they don’t really generate turnovers, but I’ve slotted them in the Top 10:

Rumors popped up Thursday that Mike Wallace’s hamstring may keep him out against the Chargers. Not the case. Wallace will be in uniform and is a great start against the lousy San Diego pass defense. As a side note, I like Ryan Mathews more than I thought in this game. Not nearly as much as Danny Woodhead, though.

Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods are both OUT for Buffalo. And Santonio Holmes is IN for the Jets. I like my Holmes boy as a sleeper this week. David Nelson in a REVENGE GAME too! The Bills aren’t so hot at shutting down the pass.

If you’re losing Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton or Nick Foles to bye next week, go stash Scott Tolzien if you need a replacement. Now, he may be terrible but you can get him for no cost in the present, and if he does prove competent, he has a great match up in Week 12 against the Vikings. Can’t hurt, if he reeks Sunday, just cut him.

Apparently, the weather is going to wreak havoc on the Browns/Bengals game. I want to see what it’s actually like tomorrow before have a slant either way. As it turns out, weathermen are the only people in the world worse at predicting the future than me.

And FYI… Last night, a friend of mine told me Colin Kaepernick was going to throw 10 TDs against the Saints, and Vernon Davis was on the receiving end of 9 of them. Now that’s a #LOSTIT prediction.

THE FLEXPERT

With the trade deadline looming, many Fantasy gamers find themselves currently dissecting their teams – getting all Jonah Keri – trying to find out where they can squeeze that extra two-percent out of their squad. And really, the only way to do that is: A) continue to make shrewd pickups every week and constantly be improving or B) Go out and acquire some currently undervalued pieces that are going to benefit from a soft playoff schedule. That would be Weeks 15 and 16. If you’re concerned about Week 17, I hate your league, and you should really find a better one for next year. There’s no need for that nonsense.

Planning too much in advance can be problematic, though – this is the NFL. Things are capricious enough week-to-week. You can’t plot unknown variables like injuries, weather or if a team is going to decide to rest its players because they’ve already clinched. Attempting to accurately predict what will happen a month from now is no exact science.

However, there is one constant we can pencil in now: The Schedule, we’ve known that for months. And, based on the first 10 weeks of data, we can begin to plug in some of those numbers to get a sense which way the outcome is leaning in the “Best players to trade for” formula. This is no simple Y = mx +b cookie cutter algebra we’re dealing with here. It’s one of those equations you encounter in theoretical calculus that use imaginary numbers (i ), infinity symbols (∞) and summations (∑) – commonly known to most people as “that weird E-shaped thing”. In reality, it’s unsolvable. Doesn’t mean I won’t do some educated guesswork though. This is Fantasy football, not an experiment in covalent bonding – no lethal explosion is going to come from an improperly calculated hypothesis. Unless it’s a STAT SHEET EXPLOSION (which would be an exothermic reaction). So lets have some fun with it.

THE ALL UNDERVALUED FANTASY PLAYOFF ROSTER

First, I need to make a qualifier: Do not trade any of your elite players for an undervalued one. They’re elite for a reason. One of the main ones involves in the words “match up” and “proof” and it’s not, “I’m going to lose this match up, someone call Quebec and get me some 94% proof Alcool”. Just a heads up, don’t ever do a shot of Alcool. Save the money and drink some rubbing alcohol, it’s essentially the same thing. Although, neither is recommended. If you trade one of your stars, at any position, for an undervalued player, you’ve taken the “under” right out of his value. I know I shouldn’t have to state this because it’s fairly common sense, but I get enough ludicrous inquiries every week to fill a “Worst Twitter Questions in the World” segment on the “Pat Mayo Hour” podcast. TUNE IN, DAMMIT. I don’t want to gloss over it.

OK, we’re going through the looking glass on this. I’m letting you behind the curtain on my “method” of ranking and projecting players. The place I start every week? The numbers. Now, this is no secret, and definitely should not be the crux of any conclusion, but it’s a terrific launching point. Even though the small sample size of football makes it the least predictable branch on the Fantasy sports family tree – Fantasy golf is close – there’s still pertinent info to absorb. Football metrics aren’t a map per se, they’re more of a random person you ask on the sidewalk where closest place to buy #CIGS is: Most of the time you get pointed in the proper direction. But there are instances when you inadvertently stumble into the bad part of town and end up $60 and iPhone lighter before you figure that out. Chris Johnson should have went off against Jacksonville last week. And while he wasn’t awful in PPR scoring, he certainly didn’t live up to the lofty expectations brought forth by the juicy match up. It happens.

What you want to try and do is swap someone on your bench, potentially one currently riding a hot streak, for a player that people can’t give away fast enough. You know, the old buy low/sell high rope-a-dope – I preached it last week regarding Ray Rice. Someone whose stock I’m still stashing, I’m just keeping those shares in my shed out back where no one can judge me over it. Sometimes I rent the shed out to Mike Leach for some side cash! And the best part of not giving up a starter for one of these guys with great matchups? You don’t need to rely on them – they’re merely insurance.

Colin Kaepernick (at TB, v ATL) – An elite QB isn’t necessary to win a Fantasy title, but having one is the easiest way to make the playoffs. Once you’re in though, it’s time to adjust. Trust me, there’s a reason Mark Brunell, Brad Johnson and Marc Bulger have all been inducted into my personal Fantasy Hall of Fame after propelling me to titles. ColinKaepernick has the potential to do the same. Currently, no one wants him coming off his mournful performance against the Panthers, so you can pry him away without encountering much resistance, and reap the benefits later. He’s the perfect Peyton Manning playoff handcuff.

C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson (at JAX, v. MIA) Steven Jackson (v. WAS, at SF), Ray Rice (at DET, v. NE) –Look at these names, who in their right minds would want them? In the present, I agree. We all know about the “talent” C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice and Steven Jackson possess, it’s what made the trio Top 20 picks in this year’s draft, but Fred Jackson – he’s a different case. Mainly, because he’s actually been awesome this season, it’s just no one seems to want to acknowledge that. It hasn’t mattered what point of the 2013 roller coaster Spiller is at, Jackson’s been steady. The same goes for Jacquizz Rodgers, who you probably don’t have to trade for, since he was likely dropped in your league. He benefits from the same simple schedule as S Jax – obv – and there’s a far greater chance he’s not on the IR by Week 15.

NOTE: Alfred Morris and LeSean McCoy deserve special mention too. Both are elite players already, but of that top tier group, they have far and away the best match ups to close the season. So, if you’re making a blockbuster trade at the deadline, make certain one of those two is coming back your way.

DeAndre Hopkins (at IND, v. DEN), DeSean Jackson (at MIN, v. CHI) – DeAndre Hopkins, and his glorious dreads, are on the precipice of finally breaking out over this closing stretch. Hopkins’ targets have increased every week since Case Keenum took over under center – reaching 11 last week – and honestly, he’s a more legit vertical option than Andre Johnson. Eventually, his production will start to equal his opportunity. In fact, it may even start this week. And DeSean Jackson is still a Top 15 WR the rest of the season, but, right now, that’s being over shadowed by Riley Cooper’s five TDs in two weeks. It’s presented a tiny buying window for D Jax’ services. Something you’ll be glad you purchased when he’s scoring deep TDs against the sieve pass defenses of the NFC North.

Jordan Cameron (v. CHI, at NYJ) – Jordan Cameron benefits from his easy finish, but he’s just a great buy in general. He’s been one of the most consistent big men all season, yet everyone wants to give up on him after his 1 catch, 4-yard showing in week 9. Compound that with a bye and now everyone forgets that he’s good. Yes, that’s the fickle mind of Fantasy football players. Go buy JC.

I used to blast this song through my headphones every time I jumped on C-Line. Yes, I’m that guy. The Beasties also opened with this when I saw them at Bonnaroo in 2009, still my favorite concert ever. Nas was there too!

I’m still starting KC D/ST versus the Broncos. Screw it. They’ve been too good to bench. Peyton can be had by a fierce pass rush and I really don’t want to leave a 25 point day on my bench.

QUICK READS

How good is Rashad Jennings? Well, some people in Oakland think he’s making Darren McFadden expendable. But remember 1) DMC made himself expendable 2) Anyone paying close attention to the Raiders is likely an insane person.

Both Shane Vereen and Percy Harvin are making their returns this week… BOUT TIME. I like both this week. I’m not concerned with buzz phrases like “limited snap counts” or “Not 100%”, Harvin has a REVENGE GAME against the Vikings; Pete Carroll will make sure he gets his. How real of a thing is a revenge game? Sixers guard James Anderson dropped 36 on the Rockets Wednesday night. James Anderson. That name is so generic he actually sounds made up. As for Veeren, once the Patriots figure out that running the ball ain’t be workin against the Panthers, they’ll take to the air, which means the game will get an injection of Vereen for the first time since opening week.

Don’t give up on Tim Wright yet. Not every team can be run all over like Miami. Expect TIMMMMMAY to get back in the mix against the Falcons.

The Dolphins defense made Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey look like Barry Sanders, this why Danny Woodhead is inside my Top 5 at RB. Well, that and his 6 reception per game average.

I kind of like Bobby Rainey. For the remainder of the season I’d rather him than Andre “Juke” Ellington. I prefer Ellington as a talent, but it’s clear Bruce Arians will not give him more than 15 touches a game, despite how progressively more decrepit Rashard Mendenhall looks every week. Rainey may flame out, but the opportunity for a 25+ touch per game workload is there. I’d rather gamble on that.

Santonio Holmes is back for the Jets. He’s had one good game this season, a 5-154-1 effort against the Bills. He’s a sneaky sleeper. As is the man standing on the parallel sideline, David Nelson. Buffalo’s the anti-Hansel at covering receivers, not so hot right now.

The Harry Douglas/Roddy White saga continues. But there’s a new wrinkle this week: Who is Darrelle Revis going to cover? Initially, I would have said Tony Gonzalez, but he’s iffy to suit up. So I figure Revis starts on White, until Tampa realizes they can just use a scarecrow to D him up. Someone in Atlanta’s receiving corps is going to have a huge day, and knowing how Fantasy football works, it’ll probably be stupid Drew Davis, who hasn’t done anything in weeks. It’s him, or Darius Johnson. Johnson > Davis.

Mike Tolbert > Jonathan Stewart > DeAngelo Williams

The Saints have given up TDs to running backs in seven straight games. That’s the reason Kendall Hunter is higher than normal. “Higher than normal” is also why Dwayne Bowe is so low.

After being embarrassed Monday night, gaining just 2 rushing yards (LOLZ), the Dolphins are most definitely going to force the running game this week. Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are no great talents, but they’ll get their chance to run against the Chargers. If only the match up was better.

If anyone ever offers you anything of value for your D/ST, make the deal. I don’t care if you own the ’85 Bears, there are always equivalent, streamable options available.

Kendall Wright benefits from the return of Ryan Fitzpatrick. In Fitz’ four games, Wright has at least 5 receptions, 56 yards and 8 targets. WHOA, WHOA, WHOA FITZMAGIC!!!!!!!!!!! For some reason, Justin Hunter got in on the action last week too. With Fitz’ limited arm strength, expect Hunter to be a more viable option than Nate Washington moving forward.

I struggle pronounce his last name, but Chris Ogbonnaya is a quality sleeper pick up for the next few weeks. I think you’ll see the Og Dawg emerge as the primary ball toucher in the Browns backfield. Most of which has to do with Willis McGahee being a complete travesty.

Rob Housler scored his first career TD last week. I actually thought he had a lot more than that. Betcha he makes it two in a row against the Jags, though. The only the Cards themselves are worse at covering tight ends.

The tight end roulette wheel selected Coby Fleener as your winner. The Titans defense the pass well, but not TEs.

You have the right to be terrified of Tom Brady and the entire Pats receiving corps this week. Carolina has yet to cede more than one passing score in any game thus far, giving up a total of 7 passing TDs in 9 weeks. Yuck. In GRONK i trust, and that’s about it.

Remember, the Eagles don’t cover WR2s. Happened again with Jarrett Boykin last week. So keep an eye on Leonard “Hank” Hankerson and Aldrick Robinson if you need a deep flyer.

Word out of Buffalo is C.J. Spiller’s limited role is actually a part of the “Game Plan” not because of an injury. So… the Bills are crappy at football and lying?

Do me a favor and please, please, please do not pick up Mark Ingram or Tavon Austin, and especially don’t ever play them. Unless you’re a Fantasy masochist, I suppose.

There’s a lot to like about Case Keenum this week. Particularly that he’s playing Oakland.

Don’t just dump Doug Baldwin just because Percy Harvin is returning. Baldy is actually really good.

He may be on bye, but Zac Stacy is a Top 10 RB the rest of the way.

And finally… I talked about a bunch of guys to acquire because of playoff matchups, what about players to move, you ask? There are two that stick out: Andrew Luck and Larry Fitzgerald.

WEEK 11 FLEX RANKS

Remember to check back Saturday evening for an injury update and Sunday after the Inactives are released. Full rankings adjustment and fresh QUICK READS covering the Fantasy spin of each news event.

Rankings set to PPR scoring format:

1 point for every 10 yards Rushing/Receiving
1 point per reception
6 points per Touchdown

Points per reception (PPR) scoring must be treated differently than standard leagues. Receivers and scat backs like Darren Sproles, Danny Woodhead and Roy Helu have inflated value in PPR scoring. As do possession receivers – Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and others in their mold are safer options. Catches tend to be more consistent and predictive. Obviously, touchdowns and yards are still important, but when considering FLEX options exploit any advantage you can. For standard scoring, running backs with hands of stone like Alfred Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Stevan Ridley all see their stocks rise without catches in the mix.