Today Iam just going to post some preliminary thoughts I have about the upcoming winter season and a little preview of my eventual winter forecast, which will be posted Novebember 15th this year

Current Sea Surface Temperatures in the Pacific

This is one of the key things we look at when doing seasonal forecasts, the state of the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). For a while , it looked like we had a developing El Nino (El Nino is a phase where wathers in the central Pacific and off the coast of South America are warmer than average) but te last few weeks has featured fairly significant cooling in the ENSO regions.

So we remain in a positive nutral phase meaning Sea Surface temperatures are a but warmer than average but not warm enough to be called El Nino , with temperature departures of +0.5 or less.

We also see on the map above that there is an area of cold water off of the western US coast and Mexicio, this is indicitve of a negative PDO phase which has been in place for the last few years, anotherbig factor in the winter forecast , this typicaaly tells us that troughs are dominant along the western US coast.

This also tells me that the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and AO (Arctic Oscillation) factors may be very changeable although since they are hard topredict more than 2 weeks in advance im going to go over thos factors more in the actual winter forecast in a month or so.

Also note that waters off the east coast are very warm, so any coastal storms that may happen will have a lot of fuel to work with

Now we take a look at analogs, im forecasting us to be in a positive nuetral phase , with a negative PDO, I dont expect an el nino phase to really take off becasue of the negative PDO, this factor typically favors ande nhances La Nina while usually keeping any El ninos weak or just stopping from dveloping at all.

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) episodes based on a threshold of +/- 0.5oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v3b SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years. For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

1950

-1.4

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.1

-0.9

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

1951

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.1

0.9

1952

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

1953

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

1954

0.7

0.5

0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

1955

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.7

-1.0

-1.4

-1.7

-1.6

1956

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1957

-0.3

0.0

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.8

1958

1.8

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1959

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

1960

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

1961

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.1

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

1962

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

1963

-0.4

-0.2

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

1964

1.1

0.6

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

-0.8

1965

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

1966

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

1967

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

1968

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

1.0

1969

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.8

1970

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-1.0

1971

-1.2

-1.3

-1.0

-0.8

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

1972

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

1973

1.8

1.2

0.6

0.0

-0.5

-0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-1.3

-1.6

-1.9

-2.0

1974

-1.9

-1.6

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

1975

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.7

1976

-1.5

-1.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

1977

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

1978

0.7

0.5

0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

1979

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.6

1980

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

1981

-0.4

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

1982

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.2

1983

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.8

-0.9

-0.8

1984

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

-1.1

1985

-1.0

-0.9

-0.7

-0.7

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

1986

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.2

1987

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.1

1988

0.7

0.5

0.1

-0.2

-0.7

-1.2

-1.3

-1.2

-1.3

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

1989

-1.7

-1.5

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

1990

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

1991

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.4

1992

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

0.0

1993

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

1994

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.7

1.0

1.2

1995

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.0

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

1996

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.5

1997

-0.5

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.3

1998

2.2

1.8

1.4

0.9

0.4

-0.2

-0.7

-1.0

-1.2

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

1999

-1.5

-1.3

-1.0

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.3

-1.5

-1.7

2000

-1.7

-1.5

-1.1

-0.9

-0.8

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

2001

-0.7

-0.6

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

2002

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.3

2003

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

2004

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

2005

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.2

-0.5

-0.8

2006

-0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.0

2007

0.7

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.9

-1.1

-1.2

-1.4

2008

-1.5

-1.5

-1.2

-0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.7

2009

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.6

2010

1.6

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.2

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.4

-1.5

-1.5

-1.5

2011

-1.4

-1.3

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-1.0

-1.0

2012

-0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

So after studying this chart my top analog years are a blend of 1976-77 , 1993-94, 2002-03 and 2006-2007

Below is a temperature anomolie map of all my analog years combined, I like this map for this year because I think there will be plenty of cold air to work with as snow growth in Canada is building quite quickly this autumn, and we have already seen plenty of polar air masses bing dropped into the US

And precipitation

The precipitation anomolies go along with the general ridge in the west, trugh in the east alignment that is possible for this winter, and with the positive nuetral phase /weak el nino , the subtropical jt stream will be and is starting to be enhanced, so it should be a rather active winter with plenty of storms to track.

So these are just some preliminary thoughts of how this winter may turn out, I will go more in depth with the final winter forecast with snowfall maps and temperature departure maps, which will be released November 15th .