A look at the brief history of Mark Shapiro's Blue Jays, till now and moving forward

If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

A look at the brief history of Mark Shapiro's Blue Jays, till now and moving forward

Introduction

This post was intended for the negative cesspool that is reddit right now; considering that it is original content and many
here don't browse reddit, I felt that I should post here as well. Please take into account that much of the included rambling
was geared toward a more casual audience and I understand that the sentiment on this forum is generally more positive
toward the front office.

I will begin by saying that, while I will try to be as objective as possible, the basis of this post is very subjective in nature,
and that will likely seep through in the following content. I have grown tired of seeing so much of the discussion surrounding
this team being focused on how badly the front office has done, and how poor the team looks moving forward. This post
will take an opposing stance and try and highlight the positives about this team, both on the management front, and in the
organization and roster itself.

2015-2016

First, let's take a look at the transaction history for the first season under Mark Shapiro's regime (lead by Tony LaCava and
Ross Atkins):

Here I have provided a list of major transactions made by the front office (information sourced from baseball-reference)
and have also included a subjective rating on what I think of the moves. We are not gauging whether or not these moves
were no-brainers (Price, Estrada), but simply whether or not they were good or bad moves.

Excellent: Price, Happ, Estrada, Biagini, Grilli, Liriano

Good: Barney, Benoit, Bolsinger

Mediocre: Thole, Storen, Upton

Bad: Feldman

Terrible: Chavez

Note: The Justin Smoak extension wasn't included on Baseball Reference's transactions page and I had forgotten about it at the time of this writing. For the
purpose of this exercise, I would categorize the Smoak extension as "terrible". Somebody please extinguish the Smoak.

Most of these ratings are unquestionable. Of the rest, I've rated Bolsinger good because Bolsinger is a decent depth piece,
and getting rid of Chavez, at least to me, was addition by subtraction. Storen was bad for the Jays but Revere was equally
bad for the Nationals, and despite not doing much for the 2016 Blue Jays, Upton provides a very useful 4th OF/platoon bat
for minimal salary going forward.

From the moment they've taken over, this front office has made a slew of brilliant, shrewd moves that have cost them
next to nothing in resources and provided an incredible amount of surplus value. Of the only two poor moves that were
made, Feldman cost a no-name low-minors prospect and while Hendriks was and is a solid middle-relief pitcher, Chavez
was coming off a 2.3 fWAR performance at the time of the trade.

This front office has given no reason for the fans to ridicule them and every reason to have faith that their under-the-
radar moves will continue to work, until they don't.

2017

A list of transactions for the 2017 season so far:

This list doesn't include the signings of Jason Grilli, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Glenn Sparkman
(a Rule 5 pick that has actually put up better numbers than Joe Biagini at every level of the
minors).

There is no reason to speculate on what will be done with the roster spots of Cecil, Bautista
and Saunders until those decisions are made. Speaking on Encarnacion, Pearce and Morales,
all we know is that the team offered $80M to the first, and then signed the next two for a
combined $45.5M.

As I wrote earlier this season, there are many reasons why Morales could be viewed as a
breakout candidate heading to the Blue Jays, despite being 33 years old. Between his elite
hard-contact rates (Top 5-10 in MLB), his propensity to hit for power and the Jays lack of
speed-oriented baseball, Morales is heading to a prime environment in which he will have
every chance to thrive.

Steve Pearce remains one of the most underrated players in baseball. Having posted a
gargantuan 4.9 fWAR in just 102 games in 2014, he was back at it again in 2016, providing
2.0 WAR of production in just 85 games played. His wRC+ (136) was actually higher than
that of Encarnacion's (134) albeit within a smaller sample.

People have criticized this signing because of Pearce's injuries in 2016 but he is only taking
the roster spot of another injury prone player (Bautista or Saunders). He provided more
value than Michael Saunders in 55 fewer games played, and more value than Jose Bautista
in 31 fewer games played, and there isn't any real reason to believe any of these three
players is more dependable for playing time than the others. Despite having been bogged
down by injuries and poor-decision platoons (Pearce is actually an above average hitter
from both sides of the plate), Steve Pearce has been a legitimate contributor.

There is a high likelihood that neither of these two players outperforms Edwin Encarnacion
in 2017, but there is a very good possibility that they do provide more value collectively,
for nearly half the cost of what the Blue Jays were willing to offer Encarnacion.

Moving Forward

From this point until more moves are made, all we can do is speculate and offer
suggestions on what we'd like to see. Personally, I'd love to see an acquisition like Andrew
McCutchen, but I am also wary of the price tag involved. I don't think an acquisition of
that caliber is necessary for this team to succeed.

Since it's impossible for us to accurately read the trade market, my preferences from the
remaining players in free agency would be as follows:

1) Re-sign Jose Bautista to play 1st base:

While I hate the idea of putting him back out on the field and I have greatly soured on his
personality, this is still Jose Bautista, and he is still projected for a 2.7 fWAR in 2017. He
is unquestionably the best remaining baseballer available on the open market. My
contingency for not getting Bautista would be someone like Luis Valbuena, who could be
a very good fallback on a very cheap deal.

2) Sign Angel Pagan to play RF or LF:

Angel Pagan is 35 years old, which means Angel Pagan will cost very little to sign in free
agency. He is coming off a 2.0 fWAR season and is still a good defender in the outfield.
He is also a switch-hitter who has historically hit righties well, and would therefore make
a perfect platoon partner for Melvin Upton Jr., who mashes lefties. There aren't many
ways that you could replace Michael Saunders' offensive production, while at the same time
greatly improving the defense for a significant portion of your field, that are better than
Angel Pagan. It is my belief that this can be one of the better under-the-radar moves of
the offseason.

3) Sign Matt Belisle and Jerry Blevins:

Or whoever else. Belisle is a specific preference of mine because he has consistently been
one of the more underrated relief arms in baseball and has been a solid contributor for a
long time.

4) Release Justin Smoak (at the local animal shelter):

I know this isn't technically a free agency move, but you could make it a free agency move
by making Justin Smoak a free agent. Please remove him.

- Feldman, move to indifferent. Given this team was in a playoff hunt/contention, making no-name prospect moves for playoff push/depth is a solid strategy. I understand he did suck aside from 3-4 innings. Also wouldn't mind Feldman back for depth actually, haha.

- Upton, its a little too early to judge as he still has a year with the Jays. If he puts up 1+ WAR season for the Jays, it would be great considering the Jays are paying him for like .5 WAR for production.

*Understand the prospects given up could "surprise" in the future and make both trades look bad.

- Feldman, move to indifferent. Given this team was in a playoff hunt/contention, making no-name prospect moves for playoff push/depth is a solid strategy. I understand he did suck aside from 3-4 innings. Also wouldn't mind Feldman back for depth actually, haha.

- Upton, its a little too early to judge as he still has a year with the Jays. If he puts up 1+ WAR season for the Jays, it would be great considering the Jays are paying him for like .5 WAR for production.

*Understand the prospects given up could "surprise" in the future and make both trades look bad.

I agree on Feldman in that I liked the move at the time. The ratings I gave each move were considering hindsight and what actually happened, which is why I moved Feldman into bad and Upton into the mediocre category. I think both of those moves were excellent at the time considering where the team was. I liked the Chavez trade quite a bit as well.

I still think Upton could pay dividends (especially if he's platooned with a guy like Pagan).

On a more general note, after taking another look at the stat pages, I'm starting to want Luis Valbuena on this team more than I want to bring back Jose Bautista. He had a better 2016, he does everything that Bautista does (better defense, less power - maybe), he's a lot younger, and he's not going to cost much. Additionally, if a team makes a desperation lunge at Bautista, that draft pick is still out there.

The Following User Says Thank You to NJH For This Useful Post:

I'm game for your plan - except the part where you said Chris Carter is a fallback option...

I even think you could add Valbeuna to your plan to complete it. Jose, Pagan, Valbeuna and a couple relievers would complete this offseason....although part of me thinks I'd rather just give Pompey a shot instead of Pagan...