These Are The Five Reasons To Care About The New Hampshire Primary Tonight

Ed Muskie Was The
Presumptive Nominee Until New Hampshire Actually
VotedAP

Most Republicans in New Hampshire seem resigned to the fact that
they are picking the next man who will be defeated by Barack
Obama. And most seem happy to let Mitt
Romney win the title of "loser" this year. He has a 15 point
lead if you average the recent polls.

So why should you care about the New Hampshire primary?

1) Surprises do happen. People forget that on
the day of the New Hampshire primary four years ago, Barack Obama
had an 8.3-point average polling lead going into the day of
the New Hampshire primary. If Mitt Romney drops below 30 percent
and Ron Paul
and Jon Huntsman climb above 20 percent, the story is going to be
that Mitt Romney might be an unacceptably weak nominee. An 8-vote
victory is not enough.

2) The Ron Paul thing. The Ron Paul fans
are a notable exception to the mood. A minority of them seem to
believe that, somehow, Dr. Paul will sweep away all obstacles to
the presidency, and then fix this country in a few weeks by
restoring the Constitution. But the vast majority of them sense
that they are building a movement that will change the Republican
party and, who knows, maybe Rand
Paul will be president in a few years. Ron Paul, who almost
everyone in the media dismissed as a crank four years ago, seems
to have more than doubled his support in the party and exercised
huge influence.

3) Buddy Roemer might beat Rick
Perry here. Former Louisiana governor Buddy
Roemer hasn't been invited to one debate, and you could make a
case that he has been unfairly shut out. And yet, his message of
getting corporate money out of politics has inspired a dedicated
little following here. Sure, he may only get 1 percent of the
vote. But it might be more than Rick Perry gets. Perry has
skipped New Hampshire for South Carolina. We interviewed Buddy
here.

4) The Speeches. Concession and
victory speeches can be pretty unpredictable. In 2004 we got the
Dean scream, an immortal political moment that signified the end
of his campaign. You may see someone end their campaign. Because
the emotions can run very high and the crowd noise can be
disorienting, a candidate may accidentally destroy their campaign
with a poorly chosen phrase. Newt Gingrich's Iowa concession
speech was so petulant, it became the best television of the
night.

5) The
Next Nominee. If all goes
according to the polls, Mitt Romney will be on track to be the
nominee. But Jon Huntsman or Newt
Gingrich could become the nominee in 2016. Or Rand Paul, who
will be standing in the background of at least one speech
tonight.

Or it could become clear by 8:30 pm that Mitt Romney is the
nominee and that no one is really excited about it.