January 1, 2014

Ross, like Belvedere, is having a difficult time finding its post-recession equilibrium. Homes are currently trading about 17% below peak ’07 levels. In a typical year 30 homes sell in Ross, the same number as Belvedere. This year 43 homes sold – the most by far of any year except 2012- when 42 homes sold. The last two years have seen increased buyer preference for Central Marin. Crowding of South Marin schools, increased traffic on Tiburon Blvd., Miller Ave. and Blithedale, and the limited number of available homes are pushing families north. The table on the adjacent page shows that by far the most competitive market segment is the bottom 50%: family homes.

The Median Size Home that sold in Ross in respective years:

Primary buyer demographics for Ross are similar to Belvedere. A large segment of high-end Ross buyers were banking gurus raising families in the Greenwich CT of the west. Due to the consolidation of the Bay Area banking industry, reduced fees, and related uncertainty –it may not be until the tech wonder boys start raising families that we truly see a return of demand to that market segment. We know who to market to, the trick is convincing them of value.

Market Segment Strength:

Despite the current weakness of the high-end in Ross, it still commands that market segment in Marin with 9 recorded MLS sales over $7m followed by Tiburon with 7, and Belvedere and Kentfield each with 4 since 2009. Ross has 4 MLS sales over $10m since ’09, most recently 32 Shady Lane at $15m, -27% below its original list price, and arguably one of the nicest estates in Ross.

Median Structure Values (excluding the value of the lot):

Median Lot Values removing the cost of the Structure:

Both median structure values and lot values show even strength meaning people will buy a home in Ross as opposed to Kentfield if they can find the right house.

Average Selling $/SQFT for Ross:

Despite the plethora of gated estates with courts and pools, the ­demand and liquidity is in the ­family neighborhoods.

Average lot values are $1.5m, ­and median lot values are $1.05m or -32% less. The 95th% lot value in Ross is $4.7m. The theoretical imputed ­maximum lot value in Ross as a derivative of home sales is $10.6m.