Of course, if that’s what the president’s supporters think, it kind of tips their hand about their proclamations, too, doesn’t it?

Amid the premature and conflicting claims, it’s hard to tell what the truth is yet. The well-documented massive urban demonstrations for Mousavi, the main challenger to Ahmedinejad, in contrast with the Iranian regime’s authoritarian nature, have led to predictions such as this from the Times of London:

It is widely believed that the 2005 election was marred by fraud and experts estimate that up to four million votes could be rigged this year. However, with the turnout so high, even that may not be enough.

The wide media coverage given to the protests, though, could be misleading. Because opposition to Ahmedinejad is concentrated among the most urban, educated and affluent voters — the ones who are easiest for foreign journalists to come in contact with — Mousavi’s support may be overstated in the media.

At the same time, when Iranian press agencies are reporting (via the Al Arabiya story linked above) that "participation in Iranian villages reached 90 percent," it’s reasonable to be suspicious that not all of those votes are legitimate.

Attackerman and Talking Points Memo have been providing analyis of the Iranian elections throughout the day, so check there (as well as more obvious news sources like CNN) for updates as the situation evolves (or devolves).

Swopa

Swopa has been sharing prescient, if somewhat anal-retentive, analysis and garden-variety mockery with Internet readers since 1995 or so, when he began debunking the fantasies of Clinton-scandal aficionados on Usenet. He is currently esconced as the primary poster at Needlenose (www.needlenose.com).