A: Usually when readers ask a question like this, I often fill out a NAIC Stock Selection Guide. This investment template helps investors see how a stock fits in its historical valuation range by using prudent growth forecasts and analyzing the company's past profits.

Unfortunately, this does not work with Sirius (SIRI). Being a new company that has made heavy capital investments, Sirius has yet to post a profit. That string of losses makes it impossible to perform a traditional valuation on the company.

So, as investors did in the 1990s with money-losing dot-coms, investors are forced to look at operational measures such as the number of subscribers or revenue. Standard & Poor's has done much of this work in an excellent report released on February 2, when it gave the company a "hold" rating.

Here's what we know. S&P thinks Sirius will add 1.4 million customers in 2005 and hit 2.5 million. That number will double to 5.5 million in 2006, S&P says. In addition, S&P thinks subscriber acquisition costs will fall to $145 in 2005 from $177 in 2004.

Sounds great, right? So, why the hold rating? First of all, S&P forecasts the company to lose 58 cents a share in 2006, which is even deeper than the 49 cents a share loss in 2005.

But most importantly, S&P says the company's stock price at the time ($5.66) already more than reflected all the good news. S&P's analysis proved correct: the stock had since flatlined to the low $5 range.

Matt Krantz is a financial markets reporter at USA TODAY. He answers a different reader question every weekday in his Ask Matt column at money.usatoday.com. To submit a question, e-mail Matt at mkrantz@usatoday.com.