Global Consumer Confidence Index Shows Uptick in February

The author(s)

Washington, DC - The global Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index is showing a slight uptick to 50.3 in February. The Ipsos Consumer Confidence Index is a measure of consumer attitudes in 24 countries regarding the current and future state of local economies, personal finances, savings, and confidence to make large investments, fielded monthly by Ipsos Public Affairs.

These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) from an ongoing survey of adults aged 18-64 in the United States, Canada, and Israel and adults aged 16-64 in the other 21 countries with 17,500 interviews conducted each month since January 2010.

Continuing to lead in overall Ipsos Consumer Confidence are: China (69.6), India (65.2), Sweden (63.3), and the U.S. (62.1). Of these countries, only the U.S. has experienced a significant change in its Consumer Confidence Index over the last three months with an increase of 1.7 points. Italy (38.2) and Russia (39.2) are now the only two countries to register a score below 40 in their Consumer Confidence Index as Turkey’s rose to 40.5. Countries showing the largest gains are South Africa, Brazil, and France, while those showing the strongest losses are Russia, Argentina, and Spain.

February’s global Ipsos Jobs Index (57.4) remains nearly even with a 0.1-point three-month increase, but is up 2.4 points from this time last year. Sweden (72.1) once again experienced the largest Jobs Index gain over the last three months with an increase of 4.1 points. And once again, Russia’s (44.9) had the steepest three-month decrease in its Job Index as it fell by 5.4-points. Sweden (72.1) continues to hold sole possession of the Job Index’s top spot and is followed closely by the U.S. (71.5) and China (70.1). Brazil (34.1), despite seeing a significant increase over the last three months (+2.7), continues to record the lowest Jobs Index score among the 24 countries surveyed.

The global Ipsos Expectations Index has grown by 0.6 points over the last three months to 59.1. The two highest-scoring countries when it comes to expectations show relatively little change over the past three months: a 0.2-point decrease for China (72.9) and a 0.9-point increase for India (71.8). Turkey (47.9) remains the sole country with an Expectations Index score below 50. South Africa (57.6) saw the largest increase (10.1 points), followed by the U.S. (2.7 points to 68.3).

Lastly, the global Ipsos Investment Index increased by 0.3 points to 44.3, led by China (67.8), India (66.7), and Sweden (59.6). Among the Investment Index’s top scorers, only Sweden experienced a significant decrease (-2.1 points) over the previous three months. Italy (28.8), Japan (29.4), and Russia (31.6) have the lowest Investment Index scores in February. France Belgium, South Africa, and Brazil all show increases of more than three points while Russia and Argentina both show drops of five points or more.

About the Study

These findings are based on data from Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 countries via Ipsos’ Global @dvisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-64 in the United States of America, Canada, and Israel, and age 16-64 in all 21 other countries each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain and the USA, and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey.

Data collected each month are weighted so that each country’s sample composition best reflects the demographic profile of the adult population according to the country’s most recent census data. Data collected each month are also weighted to give each country an equal weight in the total “global” sample. Online surveys can be taken as representative of the general working age population in Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and the United States. Online samples in Brazil, China, India, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey are more urban, more educated and/or more affluent than the general population and the results should be viewed as reflecting the views of a more “connected” population.

Sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. The precision of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a Bayesian Credibility Interval. Here, the poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.0 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 3,000+ and +/- 2.9 points for countries where the 3-month sample is 1,500+. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please click here.

The results reported each month in the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (go to https://financial.thomsonreuters.com/en/products/data-analytics/market-data/indices/ipsos-surveys.html) are based only on that month’s data (hence, the base for each country is 500+ or 1,000+) and comparisons are made against results from other months which are also each based on one month’s data. In contrast, the results reported any given month in Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence at-a-Glance are based on data collected not only that month, but also during to the two previous months and consist of past 3-month “rolling averages”. This technique allows for tripling the sample size for each metric. Hence, the base for any country ranges from 1,500+ to 3,000+. This increases the reliability of the findings and the statistical significance of reported variations over time, However, to heighten the freshness of the findings reported any given month, the data from the same month is given a weight of 45%, the data from the previous month a lesser weight of 35%, and the data from the earliest of the three months an even lesser weight of 20%.

The Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI), ongoing since 2010, is a monthly survey of consumer attitudes on the current and future state of local economies, personal finance situations, savings and confidence to make large investments. The PCSI metrics reported each month for each of the 24 countries surveyed consist of a “Primary Index” based on all 11 questions below and of several “sub-indices” each based on a subset of these 11 questions. Those sub-indices include an Expectations Index; Investment Index; and, Jobs Index.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks fourth in the global research industry.

With offices in 88 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media; customer loyalty; marketing; public affairs research; and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,782.7 million in 2016.