So, today we are watching the church leadership orchestrate a concerted effort to oppose any gay equality legislation. Indeed, they seem to be doubling down and placing all of their chips on one number and a spin of the wheel. Not surprising seeing who the old...and I mean OLD guard are.

But who would have predicted reversal of B Young's staunch assertions that blacks are second rate citizens who deserved no less than slavery? Or even in John Taylor's regime? Or Lorenzo Snow's?

Odd how it takes advanced societies so long to reject previous untruths and swing the pendulum so far the other direction, but it's true. Over and over its true. I've never seen the pendulum at bottom dead center...ever. Case in point. My folks whipped me with a belt. Teachers spanked us (pretty damn hard, I might add) with aerodynamically engineered paddles to inflict maximum pain. And I guarantee you, not only was there never talk of "suing", I was assured of a belt whipping when I got home if ever I had received a paddling at school. Our friends' folks had permiso to thump us as well. A generation later, my folks, my friends' parents, and most of my teachers would be rotting in a jail cell for the same things they did 40 years ago. You can't thump little Johnny even if the ignorant little bastard sorely deserves it.

Which brings me to the church's stand on gays in the ranks of the saints. It's always been church policy to label being gay as being evil and deviant and worthy of the most harsh punishment the church can mete out. Open support of prop 8....well, that surprised even me. It does show they've placed even more chips on the table. They seem to be pretty smug and entrenched in that stand. But I still say the pendulum is starting to swing back.

They have to know their old mantras are outdated and laughably stupid. And that they make no more sense that JS's rantings about slavery being just reward for the negro man. Or do they? At least the old guard doesn't yet grasp it. Packer and those like him continue to squeal about the evils amongst us. But those guys are damned old and they are going to be passing on at a pretty brisk rate as years pass. What about Dieter? Or others who, if Im reading them right, are much more moderate in their beliefs?

Even if it is bound to happen like Im predicting, just how will it play out? After all, there is a lot of face to be lost here. And it's hard to imagine how the church will spin it from where it is to an acceptance of gays as "normal and worthy of the Lord's blessings" as anyone else. But I believe it will happen. Gays being married in the temple? Not so sure about that one. But more acceptance? No excommunication for "practicers"? Probably. Maybe even a "don't ask don't tell" policy would look like a compromise to the church. Hard to imagine in a church so meddlesome in the lives of its members but, hey, they will be forced to find some face saving middle ground to spin.

Why? Because critical mass is building. Same as it did in the late 70s. Too many are losing loved ones to the horrors of suicide. The old arguments against homosexuality just aren't resonating with as many people as they once did. Too many TBMs are torn between the church's policies and their loved ones. I have a gay nephew and it tears me up to see his folks struggling with the church's horseshit. And what about the shit he is dealing with?

I predict within 10-15 years the reversal that seems so impossible now will have happened. Tommy will likely be gone. Packer too. It will be seen as a way (secretly by the 15) to stem the bleeding of membership.

It will be interesting to watch, as a nonmember observer, how the core majority will hail it as yet another manifestation of God's divine prophetic gift in the church.

I've thought this way for awhile also but I'm not sure if 15-20 years is a bit too late an estimate. After all, the OLD guard, if nothing else, are numbers men. They live, die, eat by the numbers. Unlike other sea changes, the rate the general public is growing to accept gays is amazingly swift. In fact there doesn't even seem to have been a neutral episode. It's just gone from "let them die from AIDS cause they probably deserve it" to "being gay is the way they are born and let them live as they choose". I'm not sure why precisely but it may help that so many people are finding that they have close relatives they love deeply who are more and more comfortable coming out. Does one turn on TSCC or vilify their only adored son or brother? I know what my choice would be.

Also, the OLD guard may not die off as soon as you think. With medical technology keeping their arteries flexible and machinery to keep their hearts pumping and lungs breathing Tommy M. might be in a state of suspended animation if the family chooses not to pull the plug. Then the top 15 would have to jump in and run the show from behind the curtain. They could do almost anything they want and "say" it came from Tommy Boy.

As public opinion is changing rather swiftly, I think something will have to change sooner rather than later if TSCC doesn't want to continue suffering devastating membership and tithing losses. They may be able to keep up the false front by shuffling ward boundaries and building ever larger temples/malls all over the landscape (from ? corporate side income ?) but at some point the jig will be up and they will have to choose to go down with the ship (ie just let the chips fall where they will) or gird up their loins for some big time changes/revelations. I'm very curious to see when this happens.

When I joined LDS, Inc. the Catholic Church was the "whore of the earth" and now they are in bed together with LDS, Inc. taking a rather large page from the Pope's play book. I would never have thought I'd see that day come either. (But then Bruce R. McConkie died and seemed to take his doctrine with him). I guess the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Catholic and Mormon hierarchy are both lumbering dinosaurs who seem to think success will come in joining together on the subjects of gay rights and women in the priesthood. But Catholicism has gained, over hundreds of years, a respectability that LDS, Inc. hasn't time or power to manage. LDS, Inc. needs to think and act quick, and I agree with you that OLD men aren't great at that.

I think you are right, Sally. Things have changed rather quickly. And there was no neutral point at all. As I mentioned, the pendulum never stays in the middle. It won't for the church either.

Aw yes, good 'ol Bruce. When I was on my mission we all wondered if we could ever be that amazingly smart. Now I think he was just a blow hard full of shit. Most of what he said was shit. He lost credibility when the blacks/priesthood revelation came out. And it blew me away how people waved it off by saying "look at the integrity to accept revelation contrary to his teachings."