827
FXUS64 KMAF 022358
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening across SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... and Northern Permian Basin. Wind gusts to
45 kts possible with these storms and MVFR vsbys due to brief
heavy rain.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region. A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week. The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides. The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.
On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon. Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there. PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal. This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding. It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash FloodWatch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region. As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time. From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$