Greedy Goblin

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Epic troll: miners and tractor drivers

You might know that Vladimir Putin, president of Russia is currently in Hungary. I've watched his joint press conference with Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and couldn't stop laughing. In practically everything they said they put some - there is no better word - trolling towards the USA or the EU leadership. Most of them needs long explanation as meaningless to anyone without context (like good luck decoding why Orbán said "we are happy that the Northern Stream was completed"). But the best one was from Putin about the cease fire in East-Ukraine: he said that in most places the cease fire is working, the only place with ongoing fighting is the Delbatseve pocket. This will end when the soldiers of Ukraine put down their weapons. (President Putin has interesting ideas about the meaning of "ceasefire").

But the uber troll line was yet to come: "I understand that it's hard to accept defeat from miners and tractor drivers, but life goes on", claiming that the troops fighting against Ukraine - despite having Russian heavy weapons - are nothing but a militia of local miners and farmers.

@Maxim: I'm from Hungary, in Eastern Europe, so I fully know that this is an ethnic conflict and the ethnic Russian population of Donetsk, Luhansk, Chrimea are fully behind independence and fight for it, volunteer in large numbers. Just like that the Ukrainens volunteer in large numbers to force them to stay for a larger Ukraine.

I've seen this story too many times around here, last time in ex-Jugoslavia.

The troll comes from the fact that without Russian heavy weapons and the soldiers operating them they wouldn't control any land and would be limited to roadside bombing and sniper attacks.

Considering that "Russian heavy weapons" is in fact "Soviet Heavy weapons" and is used by Ukrainians too, and ukrainian military officers happily sell their weapons to "Rebels". It is kinda hard to point fingers. I guess russians helps with money, intelligence and instructors, nothing as direct as actualy shipping tanks, artillery and soldiers.

@GevlonThere is no official armament support to Donetsk / Luhansk. There is a measure of under-the-table support, but ...

1) As Kana says, this isn't the only support. There are plenty of other factions interested in supporting the rebels, both within Ukraine and outside of it.

Imagine, for example, the cake Ukraine's neighbours get Russia's accusation towards Kiev government (which amount to genocide) get any traction in UN. Read up on what happens to those that UN accuses on genocide sometime :D

2) The sources of supply can be surprisingly diverse and occasionally completely counterintuitive.

For example, recently some information came to light that in early summer 2014 Poroshenko himself has actually been selling weapons (including anti-tank weaponry suitable for holding ground against armored vehicles in urban and semi-urban environments) to at least one of the rebel commanders (Bezler).Took me some time to wrap my head around what possible reasons he might have had for it. Most probably, Poroshenko understimated the rebels and hoped to have an adversary for a little victorious, but bloody, war.Regardless, the provided facts on contacts and deals relevant to the supply seemed fairly exhaustive, so i don't doubt Poroshenko actually did it.

That's just the most recent surprise. The clusterfuck over there is of epic proportions and jumping to easiest explanation (RUSSIA DOOD IT) is not the way to make sense of it.

2) Rebels have been fighting for over half a year now. Half a year of real non-stop action easily trumps 3+ years of formal military training. They already have their own tank drivers and other specialists. Sure, their skills are crude, but rapid natural selection is not meant to produce works of art.

@Maxim: I won't join the "bad Russia did it" crowd. No one "did it", it's an ethnic conflict, it was only a matter of when. There are no ideological differences, just different groups of people claiming the same land their own homeland (and both are right)

However it's easy to prove that the Russian support is crucial for them: Russian president Putin could speak for them in Minsk. How could he do it if he isn't sure that he has control to keep his word?

Hahaha...If Adolf Hitler had won, all Europe would have been united and "pacified" and maybe all the european people would have joined against the Germans...

No, seriously, the allied forces USA, UK and USSR have sold the world and divided nations at their will, just like portugal and spain did, sanctioned by the "holy" pope.

This is the reason why there are ethnic conflicts, when foreigners draw the borders on a huge map!

IF UK and USA had not been so anti-german and thickheaded, they would have handed Stalin his ASS! in no time and there would not have been millions of dead, russians, chinese, koreans and vietnamese, followed by all the army personnel who died in all these proxy wars...

Well, I say fuck Churchill, fuck Truman and fuck Roosevelt. They are responsible for the rise of communism. And every year in june, I have to endure the moronic speeches how the allies liberated europe and brought freedom and democracy to europe....Well, except for Spain, Poland, Tzchecoslovakia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria...

Back to EVE:

Why do people undock with untanked carriers? They are cheap, I know, but even untanked retrievers get a facepalm reaction when they get ganked.Why on erath would anyone attack drifters???

You are wrong on "no ideological differences". Western Ukraine has clearly embraced genocidal ideology.

Minsk II agreements had representatives of DPR/LPR as signatories. Russia's only official concern on this agreement is insisting that everyone else talks to DPR/LPR.

I don't recall Putin, at any moment, taking responsibility for DPR/LPR taking one course of action over another. To begin with, the very notion of Russia (or anyone) being able to directly compel DPR/LPR to do anything against their interest is ridiculous. Rebels fighting for land and personal independence don't function that way.

@Maxim: Ukraine clearly took a nationalist ideology which indeed contains the danger of genocide against people of different nations. However the revolt of DPR/LPR is also nationalist: if they wouldn't be nationalist, they'd have no problem with becoming Ukrainens.

From the fact that DPR/LPR expressed the long-term goal of joining Russia and identify themselves as Russians, it's not a wild guess that they acknowledge the president of Russia as their leader, even if this leadership is not absolute.