Delving into the reasons for long lines can bring solutions

January 8, 2013|By Theodore T. Allen | Guest columnist

My projections indicate that 49,000 Central Floridians were deterred from voting in November by the existence of long lines at their voting places. In some locations, the lines were more than five hours long, resulting in a 20 percent reduction in turnout for polls that closed five hours late.

For those who want to have the satisfaction of casting their votes on Election Day in person, there is good news. There are ways to reduce waiting lines that are reasonably straightforward and inexpensive.

In considering what produces long lines at polling places, the explanation that might jump first to mind is the level of turnout. This assumption is not, however, supported by the data. In fact, a comparison of voter turnout and waiting times across polling places shows the opposite to be true. We can tell the line length from the poll-closing time, since no new voters are allowed to enter at 7 p.m. The clear, if surprising, pattern that emerges is that the longer the lines, the lower the turnout.

This straight-line relationship allows us to estimate the number of people who were deterred based on their observation of the waiting times at their polling places. The slope of the line indicates that, for each additional hour of waiting time, an added 4 percent of eligible Central Floridians decided not to vote. Since some polls closed more than five hours late, average local turnout was reduced about 20 percent. Counting the number of eligible people in affected locations shows that some 49,000 potential voters were likely deterred.

This counts only the people who were deterred because of awareness of local waiting-time conditions. To get some feel for how many people might vote if elections were truly convenient, consider that in Oregon, which has 100 percent voting by mail, 2012 turnout was 81 percent of registered voters.

If turnout is not the determining factor, what does produce long lines in some locations and no lines in others?

The cause was the same as in the 2004 central Ohio election. Ballot length drove the line-length differences. Some locations had more races, issues and referendums than others, but resources were provisioned by eligible voters in the precinct, or head count, only. Looking at the data, there is a direct relationship between the number of items on the ballot and the length of the wait. Many voters read the detailed information about the issues and referendums while in the voting booth. It is also possible that more time is required if Spanish is their first language.

In central Ohio in 2008, the ballot lengths in some locations were twice as long as in others. The solution, which was implemented in 2006 and 2008, is simple: Allocate voting resources based on projected turnout and ballot length to make the predicted lines as even as possible.

Certainly, waiting in line for hours to vote is annoying and reduces participation in the voting process, but a much bigger issue is that (most likely unintentional) discrimination can result. Specifically, in Central Florida, about 23 percent of the deterred voters were Hispanic, even though Hispanics made up only 15 percent of the eligible voting population.

If the voting patterns of these deterred voters were comparable to those who did cast ballots in the same locations, this implies that 19,000 votes were lost for Gov. Mitt Romney and 30,000 lost for President Barack Obama. This is why it is important to focus on making the lines as even as possible and not allocating resources strictly based on head count. Using head count only, the pattern of discrimination from 2004 in central Ohio and repeated in 2012 in Central Florida will continue.

So what can we do to avoid long waiting lines in future elections? One option is to copy Oregon's approach and have exclusive vote-by-mail. If counties still choose in-person voting, other options include reducing the length of ballots, providing posters or handouts that permit people waiting in line to read the ballot information in detail before entering the voting booth, and allocating voting resources based upon head count and ballot length.

Ideally, industrial engineers would use sophisticated simulation modeling and optimization to ensure that additional factors can be identified and addressed before Election Day.

Theodore T. Allen is an associate professor of industrial engineering at Ohio State University.