LetsRun.com

2012 NCAA Outdoor Track And Field Men's Preview

By LetsRun.com
June 5, 2012

The 2012 NCAA outdoor track and field championships begin on Wednesday in Des Moines, Iowa and run through Saturday. The meet can be watched on ESPN3 live on Wednesday and Thursday starting at 5:15 pm ET and 6:15 pm ET on Friday. On Saturday, the broadcast will also appear live on ESPN U and it starts at 12 noon.

Everyone take a minute and think what this means about the status of track and field with ESPN. ESPN has ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU on cable, yet track and field will only be on TV on their least popular channel, only one day. Thursday and Friday night instead of showing the NCAA meet, ESPNU will be showing the NBA draft combine. Last year the meet was on CBS.

To help you better enjoy the meet whether you are watching in person, on the Internet or simply following the meet online, we have previewed all of the mid-d and distance action for you. Then we give you a quick take on the team battle. For us, track and field is very exciting if you know the story lines. If you don't, then we must admit it's often pretty boring. We start with the 10,000 as that final is first and then present you the other events in order of shortest to longest.

Four top-10 NCAA finishes in cross-country, 13 All-American honors, an American junior record in the 5,000, an American collegiate record in the 10,000 and IAAF "A" qualifiers in both the 5,000 (13:19.56) and 10,000 this year (27:31.38). Oh, wait - there is one thing he's never done: win an NCAA title.

Derrick's last bid for NCAA glory takes place at 8:45 pm on Wednesday night. And the sad thing is, his #1 rival in the 10,000 in fellow senior Cam Levins of Southern Utah has also never won an NCAA title. Levins certainly is no slouch as his PRs at 5,000 (13:18.47) and 10,000 (27:27.96) are better than Derrick's and Levins handled Derrick over
the final 400 in the 10,000 at Stanford earlier this year.

Levins has another shot at NCAA glory in the 5,000, but for Derrick this is it.

Could anyone else win? Yes, Arizona's Stephen Sambu, who was third last year, has PRs in the same range as Derrick and Levins (13:13.75 and 27:28.64). Derrick beat him indoors in the 5,000 and at PAC-12s at the 5,000, but Sambu still beat Lawi Lalang in that PAC-12 5,000 and he ran 13:13 indoors.

LRC Analysis: It's hard not to root for both Levins and Derrick.

Levins is so very old-school that he won the 1,500, 5,000 and 10,000 at his conference meet and was third in the 800 in 1:51.39.

A just outcome would be a Derrick victory here and a Levins win in the 5,000. Derrick did get the best of Levins indoors in both the 3,000 and 5,000, so we'll give him the slight edge here despite the loss at Stanford.

It's weird that only five of the 10 fastest in the NCAA are in the NCAA finals in the 10,000 this year (see chart below).

In case you missed it, last year's NCAA men's 800 final was one of the greatest NCAA finals in history. The race was certainly legendary and if you didn't see it, we suggest you take three minutes to re-live it here (race video and recap at link).

Many of the leading protagonists from last year's race are back, so this year's race certainly is a must-watch. There are five finalists back from last year - runner-up Charles Jock, third placer Elijah Greer, fourth placer Casimir Loxsom, fifth placer Edward Kemboi and eighth placer Ryan Martin.

We're ruling out Kemboi for the win, so there are four guys to pay attention to. And guess what? The leading three in our minds in Jock, Loxsom and Martin are all in heat 1 of the prelims.

Hello, NCAA, something needs to be done with your seeding. It's an absolute travesty that all three of those guys are in the same heat. Now it probably won't matter, as Jock is a known frontrunner, so all three should be able to get in on time but no one can take that for granted so you'd really better be paying attention to heat 1.

The way the seeding works is all of the heat winners are put in different heats based on time, 2nd placers, etc. Well, that's ridiculous. The seasonal best times are what should be used in the mid-d races - not the time of the qualifying race - which might have been tactical.

Jock and Martin have run 1:44 this year. Loxsom is a former World Junior Championships bronze medallist and they are all in the same heat. Crazy.

LRC Analysis: Jock made the World Championships after just missing out on winning NCAAs last year, so in our minds he's the man to beat. But none of the other three should be ruled out. Martin almost beat him this year at their conference meet and did beat him there last year. Greer, who couldn't get the job done at Penn Relays, won PAC-12s. Loxsom was having a horrible year until Big 10s when he set a new meet record. The reason for the turnaround? They found out he had low ferritin.

Heat three isn't actually chopped liver as it has three scorers from the NCAA indoor meet and Greer. Heat 2 is by far the easiest.

It's worth pointing out that the top two finishers from NCAA indoors didn't make it to Des Moines.

LRC Prediction: Jock deserves it. We hope he gets it. That being said, we think it's asking a lot of him to have to do it twice - once in the prelims and once in the final.

With only three scorers back from last year, this race seems to be wide open. That being said, the top five finishers are all back from indoors, so those facts seem to balance themselves out. It does seem, though, that there is no clear favorite.

The leader on the year is Columbia's Kyle Merber thanks to his 3:35.59 at Swarthmore. He's battled back after missing all of 2011 and certainly has a very good shot of taking down the title even though he's never scored at NCAAs. If Merber doesn't do it, then the leading candidate might be Villanova's Sam McEntee. Yes, we know according to the NCAA McEntee is only #79 in the country but they don't count Swarthmore and McEntee ran 3:36.81 there.

The collegian who was unbeatable for most of the year was Arizona's Lawi Lalang. But the indoor 3,000 and 5,000 champion seems to have lost a bit of his edge of late. That's probably unfair, as all he's done is lose four very high quality races - one of which was won in 3:35.19 and another that was won in 13:18. Lalang's bad days are better than virtually everyone else in the field's good days.

Collegiate indoor record holder Miles Batty also hasn't been running great but can't be totally discounted. There are a number of talented more 5,000 types in this race like Andy Bayer and Ryan Hill.

Indoor champ Chris O'hare has run 3:37.95 as well and indoor runner-up Rich Peters has great speed.

Hard to believe we wrote our preview and German Fernandez - the guy who won the NCAA 1,500m title as a true freshman and now is a senior - did not get mentioned. We're mentioning him now because we said talent doesn't go away, but Fernandez has shown nothing this year to indicate he should win this race.

LRC Analysis: We don't think Lalang really is a 1,500 guy but we certainly wouldn't be shocked if he won it. Merber is the guy we'd like to see win it but we kind of fear this race will end up being "He who gets in shape last wins" - sort of like "He who kicks last wins" - and that would mean McEntee, but McEntee is even more inexperienced than Merber.

In the end, the title will mean more to Merber than it will for McEntee.

LRC Analysis:
Princeton's Donn Cabral has been the runner-up the last two years. He just ran 8:19 at the Occidental meet and is without a doubt the biggest favorite in a mid-d or distance event on the men's side in our book.

Since he has the best time in the field by 9 seconds, we have few doubts about his fitness. Remember, he is a legit distance stud who normally comes back and scores in the 5,000 but is only doing the steeple this year to stay fresh for the US Olympic Trials (and also this year the men's 5,000 is before the steeple).

But what if it's tactical, you say? Well, first of all, steeples normally aren't really very tactical, but if it's tactical then we know he's the best guy as well. We watched this guy absolutely blow the doors off of the NCAA #3 in the 1,500 in Sam McEntee at Princeton in a 1,500 and then dismiss NCAA #1 in Kyle Merber at Penn Relays in both the DMR and 4 x mile. Our only question about his speed is, "Could he possibly win the NCAA 1,500 if he was in it?" And that's a crazy thought as this is a guy who regularly runs the 10,000 at his conference meet and is a guy who couldn't break 4:00 in the indoor mile this year. He was known for running the 10,000m in high school.

Cabral clearly has had a plan to peak late in the year at the NCAAs and USAs and it seems to be working.

But they run races for a reason. Super talent Craig Forys has seen his career by rejuvenated by new Michigan coach Alex Gibby as he's gone from 8:48 to 8:28. If Cabral somehow loses, we think Forys is your man.

LRC Prediction: The odds of Cabral losing this race are only slightly less than the odds of him getting the American record in the steeple later this year. Okay, that may be a bit of hyperbole but not much. It should be pointed out that this race will be run on Saturday in something like 90 degree heat - sort of when the 5,000 has been run in years past. Cabral has shown he can handle the heat in that event the last two years, so he should be fine.

1) Cabral 2) Forys 3) Leslie

PS - If Cabral does lose, blame the Princeton reunions as their senior week and reunions go on before graduation and took place last week.

It's kind of hard to break this down as some of the leading contenders are doubling. The 5,000 comes after the 10,000 final and after the 1,500 prelims but the day before the 1,500 final.

To us, a victory in this event often depends on what happens in the other events. Desire goes a long way.

In our minds, there are only four guys that can win this race and three of them are running other events. Cam Levins and Stephen Sambu are in the 10,000 and Lawi Lalang is in the 1,500. As a result, UNC-Greensboro's Paul Chelimo could win. Chelimo isn't well known, but he's run 13:21 and he smoked Donn Cabral in a 1,500 at the Raleigh Relays. Now that was before Cabral became superman, but Chelimo is no slouch as he was 4th indoors in the 3,000.

At PAC-12s, Sambu was second and Lalang third (Derrick won).

LRC Analysis Prediction: Making a prediction in this event this far out is almost stupid. Chelimo seems to be on the upswing but it's hard to go against Lalang or Levins. But Sambu beat Chelimo in a 5,000 early and Sambu beat Lalang at PAC-12s.

1) Chelimo (if you can dust Cabral, you should be able to win). 2) Sambu 3) Lalang

LRC Prediction: If Levins wins the 10,000, we may pick him to go to legendary status and win here.