UK recession: what the experts say

Alan Clarke, BNP Paribas

He believes that the UK is not even halfway through the downturn yet, and predicted that GDP will continue to shrink through 2009.

"It's a case of two quarters down, four to go," Clarke said. "All the indications are that this recession is worse than the one of the early 1990s."

David Buik, BGC Partners

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"Clearly this sets a very weak platform for GDP growth this year and suggests that a forecast of a 2.5% drop in GDP could be too very realistic. Meanwhile, December's retail sales figures suggest that the high street is playing absolutely no role in the slowdown, with sales up by 1.6% on the month. However, even the Office for National Statistics itself has warned not to pay much attention to these figures."

Howard Archer, IHS Global Insight

"The economy entered recession with an almighty bang in the fourth quarter of 2008.

"Our current forecast is for UK GDP to contract by 2.9% in 2009, with declines in output occurring through all four quarters. This would be the sharpest contraction since the second world war. Furthermore, we see GDP only flat overall in 2010 as recovery develops very gradually."

Martin Slaney, GFT

"Official confirmation of our somewhat inevitable recessionary status caps off a torrid week for UK plc. Those green shoots which certain government ministers have been heralding are nowhere to be seen as far as the statistics are concerned.

"However, retail sales continue to be surprisingly resilient to the malaise that is apparent from virtually all other UK economic indicators. The high-profile discounting which characterised the high streets in December – combined with the VAT cut – incentivised shoppers to get out and spend. Yet sustaining the promotional activity to that extent will be difficult, and this may prove to be a short-lived bounce."

James Knightley, ING

"Even the government sector contracted 0.5% quarter on quarter. With lead indicators suggesting ongoing weakness, and rising unemployment and tight credit conditions exacerbating the downturn, we doubt that the UK will return to positive growth until the first quarter of 2010, with GDP contracting around 3.1% in 2009."

Nick Kounis, Fortis

"This report confirms that the economy is in deep recession and adds to the case for further aggressive Bank of England policy easing. The probability that the central bank will need to turn to a quantitative easing policy is rising."

David Kern, chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce

"The worse than expected decline in GDP not only confirms that the UK economy is in a recession, but it also highlights the critical need to persevere with forceful corrective measures.

"On the basis of these figures, we are now forecasting a decline in UK GDP for 2009 of 2.4%. While the short-term outlook is dire, it is important not to drift into excessive despondency.

"The government and monetary policy committee still have important weapons at their disposal, which they will undoubtedly deploy.

"The huge stimulus package that the new Obama administration plans to introduce could have beneficial global consequences."

Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors

"The UK economy is heading for a long, cold winter which is unlikely to end before spring 2010.

"The GDP figures displayed doom and gloom across the board, with every sector barring agriculture contracting in the fourth quarter. The biggest sector fall was in manufacturing and so even the weak pound couldn't bring good news for manufacturers."

"The latest recession is beginning to look as if it will be more like the 1980s than the 1990s in terms of lost output. We are well into the financial crisis, but the economic crisis is only just beginning."

Stewart Hosie, Scottish National Party treasury spokesman

"The economic bad news has been relentless, and so confirmation that we are officially in recession is no surprise. It is essential that the UK government step up action to keep this recession as short and shallow as possible.

"Last year's VAT cut has clearly failed. Instead of rambling about 'green roots of recovery', UK ministers should be looking to see how fiscal stimulus and capital spend can be reprofiled – a much more effective means of securing jobs and boosting the economy."