Can’t Forecast the Future of a Historic Housing Boom & Bust

As anyone in the real estate game knows, when Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices speaks, we listen. But what he said recently perhaps spoke loudest. He predicted that we could see home prices fall another 25%. Ok, that certainly is not good news, but what is a little more disconcerting is that, just prior to that announcement, Shiller explained that the housing bust we’re in now is historic and really has no precedence for us to compare to. Statisticians look for patterns, and right now there is no pattern, so forecasting the future becomes that much more difficult.

Millions of borrowers are not current on their mortgages. Millions more are at their threshold, ready to just stop paying on their loans and are not yet in the foreclosure pipeline. Add to that a lack of buyer demand due to fear, tight credit and under employment, despite much-improved affordability.

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