Last month Cosmetics Design ran a reader survey to gauge your sense of how the next four years will reshape the industry. The results are in—likely new policy on trade agreements, international sourcing, and regulations will impact the beauty business.

The cost of importing cosmetic and personal care ingredients (as well as packaging materials, beauty tools and devices, and manufacturing equipment) is foremost in readers’ minds.

One commenter, who is optimistic about the next administration on the whole notes, that “on the negative side, this administration will curtail trade policies which will affect our industry's ability to source cheap raw materials and will restrict the open global market.”​

53% of Cosmetics Design readers responding to the survey expect personal care and beauty product ingredient prices to be higher during a Trump admiration. 22% believe that costs will go down. And the remaining fraction of respondents suspect there will be no impact on ingredient prices or are “uncertain” ​what the impact will be.

51% of readers responding to the Cosmetics Design survey anticipate a negative impact on ingredient sourcing and development. Only 10% expect a positive result.

These sentiments—that ingredient prices will rise and sourcing will be more challenging—run strong throughout the comments submitted:

“The cosmetic industry sources ingredients and components from around the world. He will work to close our borders and make trade more difficult and costly. He will change treaties and laws already established that facilitate good business practices. This is a disaster for all industries.”​

“[The] cost of sourcing materials internationally will go up, resulting in an up-charge of the rest of the supply chain of cosmetics.”​

“[The] primary concern is ease of imports and cost to do so. Trump has a strong policy to build American businesses and to tax imports and exports more. That will affect our daily lives in terms of material sourcing.”​

“He will support sourcing in the USA. International sourcing may cost more.”​

“Prices of packaging components sourced overseas will increase if import tariffs are imposed. Same for devices - typically manufactured in China.”​

“If he repeals trade deals, prices for raw materials will increase.”​

Further suppositions ​

Asked about the likely impact of a Trump administration on the global cosmetic industry, 41% of survey respondents anticipate a negative impact. 25% believe it will be positive and 34% say they don’t know or expect there will be no impact on the industry globally.

Focusing on the US, 35% of readers believe his administration would have a positive impact. At the same time, 26% expect a Trump administration would have a negative impact on the cosmetics and personal care business here in the States.

Regulatory shifts​

Several comments pointed to likely changes in regulations that affect the beauty business. Many readers expect “less regulation”​ in the coming years. Though how that will play out is less certain.

“The more deregulation that happens in DC, the more regulation will happen in the states. For example, Trump's stance on the environment and climate change is far different than that of legislators in California; I find it likely that California will amp up environmental regulations to counter Trump's deregulation,” ​wrote one Cosmetics Design reader.