Pachter: Modern Warfare 3 Sales Will Double Battlefield 3 This Year

October 24, 2011 Written by Sebastian Moss

For the past year, first person shooter fans the world over have been fiercely debating one important question: “Which game is better: Battlefield 3 or Modern Warfare 3?” And, despite a rocky beta, most gamers are ready to declare BF3 the winner, with many expressing dislike at the apparent lack of change in MW3 over its predecessors. But Activision won’t be shedding many tears over the growing franchise fatigue due to one simple fact – MW3 will sell more. In fact, industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that the blockbuster shooter will outsell DICE’s shooter 2:1.

Speaking to Forbes, the Wedbush Morgan analyst expects Modern Warfare 3 to sell 16 million copies worldwide this financial year, with Battlefield 3 trailing at 8 million copies. He also doesn’t believe that BF3 will make a noticeable dent in Activision’s market share:

I’d guess that around half of the console copies of Battlefield 3 will be bought by people who also buy Modern Warfare 3, so around 2 to 3 million will buy both. I don’t see much cannibalization of the titles.

But even with the huge difference, both publishers will be laughing all the way to the bank, with the two games combined set to bring in $1.4 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter – 15% of total packaged software sales over a three month period – according to Pachter.

After the fourth quarter, he believes a further 8 million copies of Modern Warfare 3 and an extra 2 million of Battlefield 3 will be sold.