Hasty ECB / BIG EXPERT - shares: Week from 28 First 2,013

Balance sheet of the European Central Bank began shrinking. While the U.S. Fed is printing new money on the one hundred and six, the ECB has already almost a year to the balance nepřikoupila nothing more actively. The retreat of monetary expansion is hasty and not on the eurozone periphery that step yet ripe.

ECB balance shrank to its lowest level in the last year (2.93 trillion euros) and will go down. ECB is allowing banks to prematurely repay some of the money lent under operation LTRO (Long Term Repo Operations). Part because banks repay 137 billion euros of three-year loans from the ECB. The management of the ECB has so far like this development.Considers it to be evidence of decreasing tension at the periphery and at the same time it solves the problem seemingly automatically exit strategy from a number of emergency operations as LTRO. But the ECB between major central banks in the policy so far alone.

That is why the euro in recent months began to significantly strengthen the front and the dollar is trading near annual highs (ECB balance is roughly the annual lows). The problem is that the euro area for such a hardening of monetary conditions are not ripe. Voltage on peripheral markets, while at the end of the year declined significantly, but it still did not show the real economy. Conversely, the fourth quarter of 2012 was in large periphery as in Spain, marked by further fall in domestic demand. At the same time, as shown by the latest survey of the ECB, the Bank regardless of the voltage drop in the financial markets clients further toughened the conditions for borrowing.One of the few hopes weakened periphery are thus improving prospects for export.

The European Central Bank has not the strong euro does too, because of its impact on the euro area economy has never been crucial. Decimated domestic demand in Spain and Italy, places the role of exporters and euro in a new light. A strong euro would soon could become a new nightmare for the European economy. ECB at the moment only two options. Either will continue to print and the euro weakened or have strong euro kill first starting recovery and will eventually be forced to print a little later.

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