FTFA:But in each of these states, Obama's share of the vote is below the 50 percent threshold usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney has narrowed the margin in these three battlegrounds since earlier this year.

I will boldly make 2 predictions:Romney will win.It won't even be close.I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent. There always seems to be the blame game around voting, by that I mean when people feel that things aren't going well they look for someone to blame and that is almost invariably the incumbent at the top. (Losing teams fire the coach not the assistants). Whether this makes sense or not is irrelevant, it's human nature to find a scapegoat. Pundits and the mediasphere get all wrapped up in the day to day minutiae of the back and forth but voters mostly vote based on gut reactions. It doesn't matter that politician A may be worse than politician B, it just matters that A isn't B.

Philip Francis Queeg:tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?

My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.

Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Lunchlady:Philip Francis Queeg: tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?

My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.

What we wish, we readily believe, and what we ourselves think, we imagine others think also. - Julius Caesar

Polls represent small samples and snapshots. I always like the way people jump on polls that represent what they want to believe and ignore polls that don't. I don't disagree with the polls but you managed to ignore the part about Obama being under 50% and how that isn't good for an incumbent. I'll stick with my predictions and you can laugh at me in Nov. if I'm wrong. I don't hide the fact that I support the conservative over the liberal. I don't troll, at least not intentionally, this is simply my opinion.

Lunchlady:Philip Francis Queeg: tcan: I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent.

So they are just lying in every single poll?

My thoughts exactly.

It's even worse for Romney than it looks. While youth don't vote in massive numbers they don't have landlines and aren't usually included in polls like this. So even among favorable conditions Romney is still losing.

Really? Are we still relying on this landline/cellphone canard to disregard polls? I bought that in 2004 and look how badly that turned out.

I for one am shocked at how close the polls are now. I don't consider Romney to be the demon you guys do, but on the other hand he's basically the GOP version of John Kerry and Obama's done a pretty good job IMO considering the hand he was dealt.

TheOther:Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.

Fluorescent Testicle:TheOther: Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.

Buddy, let me shake your hand. My sentiments exactly. Until the Republican party stops forcing candidates and members to swear allegiance to party over country--and they do that now--then the Republican party can rot in hell. As soon as it falls apart and rebuilds itself as something besides a bunch of rich white people manipulating a bunch of useful idiots, then I'll start voting Republican again.

Debeo Summa Credo:I forget, are we supposed to ignore the polls that have Obama ahead or only the ones that have Romney leading, or both? Can we get a FARQ on this?

Depends on the poll. A nationwide poll - especially a close one - isn't terribly informative since popular vote doesn't elect the President. Reputable polls in swing states are far more useful, though certainly not infallible since a lot can happen between now and election day. Still, as an Obama supporter, I'd much rather have the polls right where they are, favoring Obama by double digits among women in swing states. Guaranteed win? Absolutely not. But a hopeful sign nonetheless.

Your post is the poll version of "both sides are the same" - both sides are not the same, and not all polls are to be treated equally.

The Why Not Guy:Debeo Summa Credo: I forget, are we supposed to ignore the polls that have Obama ahead or only the ones that have Romney leading, or both? Can we get a FARQ on this?

Depends on the poll. A nationwide poll - especially a close one - isn't terribly informative since popular vote doesn't elect the President. Reputable polls in swing states are far more useful, though certainly not infallible since a lot can happen between now and election day. Still, as an Obama supporter, I'd much rather have the polls right where they are, favoring Obama by double digits among women in swing states. Guaranteed win? Absolutely not. But a hopeful sign nonetheless.

Your post is the poll version of "both sides are the same" - both sides are not the same, and not all polls are to be treated equally.

Well, if Obama is ahead by double digits among women must mean he's losing among men if the polls are that close. So don't hurt your hands high fiving too much.

And some poll yesterday had Obama down 7 in Florida. I assume that was one of the ones that was "not reputable" in your opinion.

tcan:I will boldly make 2 predictions:Romney will win.It won't even be close.I believe that most voters have already made up their minds to toss the incumbent. There always seems to be the blame game around voting, by that I mean when people feel that things aren't going well they look for someone to blame and that is almost invariably the incumbent at the top. (Losing teams fire the coach not the assistants). Whether this makes sense or not is irrelevant, it's human nature to find a scapegoat. Pundits and the mediasphere get all wrapped up in the day to day minutiae of the back and forth but voters mostly vote based on gut reactions. It doesn't matter that politician A may be worse than politician B, it just matters that A isn't B.

Fluorescent Testicle:TheOther: Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

Social issues.

Are the two parties relatively similar in regards to economic issues, the Patriot Act and the Drug War? For the most part, sure. However, only the TeaPublicans are currently lobbying and legislating against civil rights for women, gay people, poor people, atheists, immigrants... Hell, literally anybody who's not a middle-aged, wealthy, American-born, straight, white male. Yes, both sides are bad, but one of those sides is currently much, much worse. If the Tea Party gains power, they will turn the US into Gilead, and even you must realise how terrifying that prospect is.

I'm a centrist, but I'll be voting Democrat every time until the GOP either shapes up or self-destructs.

How the GOP wins any election while advocating that half of the eligible voter population should be kept in second-class citizen status is beyond me. I know there are 'think of the children' and petty bourgeois property interests involved, but...dayum!

To your argument about social issues, a hereditary aristocracy of wealth threatens all of the ills you mention, plus utter destruction of the middle class and its reduction to industrial serfdom. My minimum standard for any 'progressive' party is that it oppose this. This is the absolute LEAST it has to do, for the interests of the nation as a whole, even if it means forgoing some promised extension of unemployment benefits.

There are lot of things Obama has done to disappoint me: no single-payer, no confrontation-'take it back to the voters' with the GOP on HCR; Gitmo is still open. Lieberman still chairs the Senate committee on Homeland Security. Patriot Act still in force. The War on non-American brown people...and Americans... continues in the name of keeping drugs out of the hands of consenting adults.

All that is flesh to me ...and it hurts...but I could swallow that hurt, but tax policy is bone.

Obama outed himself as a Satan-wannabee when he signed the Bush/Obama Tax Cut extension. If Democrats are not going to differ from the Teatards on tax policy, what useful distinction or purpose is left for them?

I'm not too worried about those polls. They are going to be all over the place.

A. None of Mr. McCain's states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.

B. A duplicate 2008 performance is a pipe dream. (A record of failure will do that). He's now forced to fight for states he easily won in 2008 and red states that switched sides last time around he will have to fight for his life to hang on to.

Historically red states Obama won last time.1. Indiana (Obama won by 1%) = Not in play. Solidly GOP this time.2. North Carolina (Obama won by .32%) = Solidly GOP, moving towards not being in play.3. Virginia = Up for grabs

This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.

MFL:This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.

Meh. Romney has already trotted out just about everything he has against Obama. The Obama campaign has barely started. They are just phoning it in right now and saving the good stuff for closer to the election. When you start seeing the Romney vs. Romney ads then you'll know the campaign has actually switched out of first gear.

Romney will need a minimum of 2 of the three big states - OH, PA and FL. And that's if he gets lucky and gets all of the smaller states - VA, NC, CO, NM, NV and IA. If he doesn't get at least half of the bigger of those (VA, NC, CO) he will need all three.

Right now I have a 300 to 238 win for Obama - he gets OH and PA, Romney gets FL of the big states, Obama runs small states save VA and NV, gets a surprising win in NC, gets one vote in NB, everything in MA. Percentages will be about 52 to 47 with a significant write-in contingent (1%) spread among conservatives - Palin, Paul, ect.

Here's a fun experiment: If things go really well for Obama- MO, VA and FL, plus what I listed above, all go Obama. If that happens, we'd know our President by 10 PM EST, assuming polls close at 7 PM MST, and if the states are called right at the turn of the clock. He'd have 278 (270 required to win) with no Pacific Coast states having finished voting. He'd win by 352 at the end.

MFL:I'm not too worried about those polls. They are going to be all over the place.

A. None of Mr. McCain's states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.

B. A duplicate 2008 performance is a pipe dream. (A record of failure will do that). He's now forced to fight for states he easily won in 2008 and red states that switched sides last time around he will have to fight for his life to hang on to.

Historically red states Obama won last time.1. Indiana (Obama won by 1%) = Not in play. Solidly GOP this time.2. North Carolina (Obama won by .32%) = Solidly GOP, moving towards not being in play.3. Virginia = Up for grabs

This election is an entirely different animal than 2008. Last time everything broke Obama's way...and I mean everything. It will not happen again. Everything is trending away from him.....the tide is going out.

Who's this "GOP" dude who ran for president in 2004?

Funny how the last Republican president has become the Great Unmentionable among Republicans.