Cincinnati Bengals

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

It has been a disappointing season for Cleveland’s offense, particularly Odell Beckham, but the wide receiver has a chance to finish strong in week 17 as Bengals’ top outside cornerback William Jackson is potentially out with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Jarvis Landry is gaining 2.02 yards per route run in the slot (4th) but he will be locked up by nickelback Darqueze Dennard, who is surrendering only 0.64 yards per slot cover snap since week 7 when he made his season debut (4th). Browns running backs are averaging 1.4 more targets per game since Kareem Hunt’s suspension was lifted in week 10 and Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 7.6 yards per target to opposing running backs (30th). Geno Atkins ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders but he will be neutralized by left guard Joel Bitonio, who is conceding less than 1 pressure per game.

The Bengals rank 28th in pass blocking efficiency but the Browns have not been able to get to the quarterback recently without edge rushers Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon. Cleveland’s defense is generating 2.5 less pressures per game as a result of Garrett’s suspension and Vernon’s knee injury. John Ross is gaining 1.94 yards per route run (23rd) but only played in 7 games while Tyler Boyd is averaging 1.83 yards per slot route run (7th). Andy Dalton has solid wide receivers but the Browns have a strong young cornerback group led by Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams.

In general, I think both of these offenses are underrated but nasty weather is expected in Cincinnati on Sunday, which could be worth more than 5 points according to our metrics. Both of these defenses are in the bottom 5 versus the run so we should see some success on the ground from Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. Our model makes Cleveland a 1.3-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.8, and Cincinnati applies to a 58-22-3 ATS last home game underdog situation. I’ll lean slightly with the Bengals but would pass the total since there are some under trends that apply.