Fantasy Freestyle

The Top 50 2013 Signees for Dynasty Drafts

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Once the holidays have moved on and the calendar has flipped, dynasty leaguers all start to crawl out of the woodwork to submit their rosters for the current season and draft the new group of eligibles to dream on. As Wooderson would say, "that’s what I love about these current-year draftees, man. I get older, they stay the same age.” The promise of the 2013 signees collectively pool together to give dynasty-league rebuilders new hope of contention and dynasty-league contenders new trade chips with which to get the pieces to put them over the top.

And while the 2013 crop isn't the strongest we've seen in recent memory, there are still high-upside options from which to choose. The slight quirk of this year is that the options with the most fantasy upside are, for the most part, not the high school players. In fact, only one of the top six players on this list fit into that category—which is a change of pace from last season, when Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Addison Russell all fell into that space (and are all now top-10 prospects in the game). There is no prep arm with more impact potential than Jonathan Gray and no prep bat with more power potential than Kris Bryant. On the international front, just like last year, the crop is headlined by a Cuban hitter and a Japanese pitcher who have impact upside—though for fantasy purposes, they may be less exciting than Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes. Then again, that's not much of a knock on Masahiro Tanaka or Jose Abreu, as you'd be hard pressed to find a one-two punch to match them in most seasons.

This is also the time of year that I get a lot of questions about trades involving draft picks. Like every other year, there is a drop-off after the first tier of players available, but 2014 drafts will see more dramatic tiering in the first round than we're used to. So when someone asks me on Twitter, “should I trade player X and a first round pick for player Y,” the answer is inevitably another question: What pick is that? There is a very sizable difference between the fifth pick and eighth pick in drafts this year, so even small differences matter. And to expound on that a little further, if you don’t have a pick in the top six this year (or top five if Tanaka is not available in your draft), it might be a good time to explore trade options. The biggest weakness of this class of fantasy prospects is in the midsection, and you can take advantage of that by dealing picks for players or pulling a Bill Belichick and securing more picks for 2015—which will have a much deeper draft pool.

These rankings assume a standard 5x5 rotisserie 16-team league where you can keep players forever without restriction. In a deeper league, guys like Mark Appel and Colin Moran will get a slight bump up, just like upside-driven names like Tim Anderson or Aaron Judge will get that same treatment in shallow leagues. “Get on with the list already,” you’re probably thinking and potentially saying out loud to your computer screens (although most of you probably went straight to the names first and are backfilling with the content). Don’t worry, I forgive you. But yes, the list (in tiers):

Let’s start at the top. Despite Tanaka and Abreu heading straight to the majors and both having chances at stardom, I'm still taking Bryant with the first pick in drafts this year. As a rather polished college hitter, he's not going to be too far behind the pair as far as ETA goes, and the power is just too tantalizing to pass up. That said, it's certainly defensible to take any of the top three with your first selection, depending on how much you believe in the international products. Abreu could be pre-injury Kendrys Morales, but he also has lingering questions about ability to catch up to velocity and his hit tool. Tanaka could be a healthier and slightly better version of Hisashi Iwakuma and slot in as a very good no. 2 fantasy pitcher for your squad, but he's got a ton of miles already on his arm (without the support of a Darvish-like frame).

My love of Clint Frazier is well documented, and frankly, I very nearly put him ahead of Tanaka. It’s just the ETA that pushes him back. Then comes the big decision: Gray or Appel? It’s close and I’ve flip-flopped them a couple of times during the process of researching and making this list. In the end, Gray has the upside to overcome the Coors Field factor and I prefer his strikeout potential to Appel’s safety.

This is the part of the list where the fantasy values drop pretty dramatically.

The second group of six here certainly has potential, but it’s a real step down either in upside or safety. Stewart will get billing as the top name in this group, but he’s much closer to Smith’s value than Appel’s. Smith and Peterson both could be very solid fantasy bats, but since neither has huge power or stolen-base ability, their upsides are somewhat limited. The remaining three players have the upside you want, but all carry real risk. Anderson could be an Ian Desmond-type or he could flame out as a utility guy. Manaea has an injury history and though the reports are good now, he could see a setback. Harvey has a lot of upside, but his division and ballpark won’t help and he’s still a long way away.

The upside in this third grouping is underwhelming. Shipley and Renfroe lead the charge, as they both can reach that next level of prospect status by honing their skills—Renfroe in particular, as a potential power/speed combo (albeit one likely with a low batting average). I’m not the world’s biggest Meadows believer, at least not at a star level, but he’s going to be a fantasy contributor. Moran should be able to hit and starred at North Carolina, but his position and power potential are up in the air—that doesn’t sound at all like Dustin Ackley, right? And Guerrero is a gamble, just without the type of offensive payoff we generally see from Cuban defectors.

There’s some talent still in the pool at this point, but once you get outside the top-20, it starts to drop off rapidly. If you’re looking for the most potential bang for your buck in this group, I’d look at numbers 24 and 25. Williams is athletic, but raw, and could take a nice step forward and solidify himself as the Brewers’ top prospect. McMahon is a guy who could hit for power and average—calling Coors Field home is just the icing on the cake.

The rest of this list is filled with lottery tickets (Judge, Devers, Jimenez, Hollon) and likely lower-level contributors (Gonzalez, Anderson, Knebel, Danish). If you’re counting on these guys for anything other than minor-league depth, it’s very likely to end in disappointment.

This is really useful. One thing that could improve it further would be to add in some older international signings. In most leagues I play in, only the absolute top name guys (people like Jairo Beras) get picked in the year of signing, and most of the others are left until they do something in the minors. As an example, guys like Raimel Tapia, Amed Rosario, Alberto Tirado are all available in most leagues. If there's a way of producing an article like this including guys like these, that would be great.

I agree. I'm not sure where you'd draw the line, but there are plenty of short season guys that are available in most leagues that are difficult to project where they would fit on this list. Along with those you mentioned, guys like Lewis Thorpe, Alex Reyes, and Francisco Mejia all seem like they should fit somewhere on this list, but I'm not sure where.

I'm happy to answer them as one-offs, but it's really tough to know who's owned and who's not. Even just in an assumed 16-team league (like what is used for this exercise), there's a huge difference if you have a 15-man minor league roster versus a 25-man.

I'd put Mejia and Thorpe towards the middle of the Shipley tier and Raimel Tapia in the Dominic Smith/Tim Anderson range. Reyes and Tirado would be lower, than Mejia/Thorpe, but likely still in that tier.

Thanks for this list and all of your analysis, it's very helpful. My league has a salary cap and goes by player contracts, so Bryant, Frazier, etc. would cost me the minimum ($400K), whereas Abreu and Tanaka would cost much more. In that case, would you bump Frazier and Gray (or even Appel) above the expensive international signings, or still go for the MLB ready talent?

I'm way under the cap, actually (rebuilding a team I took over last year, finished third from last), so I'm all about weighing the potential MLB impact of Tanaka and Abreu over the long-term odds / delay of gratification of the top amateurs.

I'll be honest, Gonzalez was an oversight as I seem to have a serious blind spot for him. That said, I'm very bearish on him, and would have ranked him in the 30's on this list based on his risk factors and the likelihood he ends up in the bullpen.

Thank you, Brett! This is fantastic! I mostly play in ESPN-hosted leagues, and many minor leaguers are not included in the ESPN player pool, so they aren't draft-eligible. A minor leaguer who has an unexpected breakout (like Alen Hanson last year) isn't added to the player pool - and thus the draft - until the following year. I expect there are others who play in ESPN leagues and are in the same boat.

Those players will all be ranked in the Top 100 Fantasy Prospects list coming out next month, but Polanco would be at least in the mix for #1 (but probably behind Bryant) and the rest of the guys would settle in the top of the second tier. As far as Pineda, the shoulder stuff scares me enough that unless he were more or less handed to me on a silver platter, I'll let him be someone else's problem.

Thanks, really enjoy the list. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez seems like an obvious omission from a list that goes as deep as this, is that just because of the wide variety of opinions on him? Also would be useful to consider where guys like Raciel Iglesias and Yoon Suk-Min might fit if they sign in the near future.

I addressed Gonzalez above, but for the other guys, I'm releasing a top 30 fantasy prospects list of solely players not yet in U.S. professional baseball. That includes future draft picks, and international players, and should get released in the next two weeks.

A lot of people seem to be split on Austin Meadows. Some say his best tool is his speed, while others consider him more of a Jay Bruce type power-hitting corner outfielder. What are your thoughts on him?

I pick second in my draft. The person ahead of me has said that they will take Abreu and if that's the case, I'm still agonizing over whether I'd take Bryant or Tanaka. I'm thinking it will come down to what park/league Tanaka will be pitching in. But any information one way or the other could still sway me.

To be honest, I'm kind of hoping the person above me takes one of Bryant or Tanaka and makes my decision for me.

I could see why a person with a brain could take any one of Abreu, Tanaka or Bryant. I prefer Bryant to Abreu because of the position scarcity, scouts have been able to get a better look at him and the quality of play in Single A is more regulated than the Cuban League. But the White Sox play in the most friendly ballpark in baseball for righthanded home runs, so Abreu's skills could perhaps play up a bit.

It's really hard for me to quantify how Tanaka will do. He profiles favorably in NPB statistics and pitching style to guys like Iwakuma or Kuroda. I think the wear on his arm might be a little overblown, he's already scheduled a physical. I'd feel great about him if a team like the Dodgers signed him.

Per a recent report on Abreu training in Fl, he's much more athletic than 1st percieved. He was a SS, then 3B in Cuba. He only moved to 1B when he just kept growing and to protect the bat. That's excactly the same story for..Miggy.

I agree. He looked solid in a viewing I had of him in Low A. Actually, Hunter Renfroe was facing him. Looked like Renfroe had more power potential, but Ervin could more consistently create impact on the field. SSS, of course.

Ervin was the last player cut for this list. I like him enough as a prospect, but my strategy is to shoot for bigger upside players and lottery tickets in the 30-50 range. That means mostly pitchers with a chance to jump and premium J2 hitters. Ervin's omission could make me look stupid, but it's not a pick that I would make in that range.

Whether you can afford to carry them or not is entirely format dependent. Even if the majority do flame out, that doesn't mean that they aren't better bets than guys who don't have a high enough ceiling to be significant contributors even if they do make it.

What would you need to believe to take Frazier ahead of Abreu? I expect Tanaka and Bryant to go 1-2 in my league and I'm still not sold on Abreu over Frazier. Is it all about ETA (not that that's not important, but I can be patient)? Is Kendrys Morales pre-injury a slam dunk over Frazier?

Not a dynasty league, but I am in an AL-only roto league with 17 reserve rounds. Many picks in the prior years MLB draft are still available for the upcoming reserve draft. Thoughts on 3B Mitch Nay and OF Nick Williams?

Gray and Bryant are not "prep" players unless I've had it backwards for years. Frazier is the top prep bat and I believe Hunter Harvey (H SQrd) is the top prep arm. From the college ranks, Bryant may be the biggest impact bat since...? Obviously, Gray since Strasburg or was Matt Harvey a college player? I honestly just want to make sure I'm not being an ass by stating Gray and Bryant are not prep bats.

They're not prep players, but my point wasn't that they were, it was that there was no one from the HS ranks who had greater upside (which is uncommon).

Bryant isn't a once in ten or twenty years kind of bat, despite how he looks compared to the rest of this class. I'd say he's the best college bat since Anthony Rendon. Same with Gray--it's only been two years since Gerrit Cole went number one overall.

Knebel has the closer pedigree but as we've seen with guys like Paco and Storen there's no guarantee they will get the nod quickly nor be able to retain the role. So let me ask this way, for fantasy purposes, who else do you see as a back end type of arm from the 2013 summer classes (and signees to date)?