SurveyUSA: Burner 49%, Reichert 49%

Under 50, tied with the challenger. Not a place a Republican incumbent wants to be the day before the big blue wave hits.

Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to.

What does that mean? Well, you don’t even have to do the math to see that Reichert would need to win over 5% of the uncast ballots to win the election.

It is interesting to note that in the previous poll Burner led by 8% with the 25% of respondents who said they had already voted, and now with 38% of ballots cast she still leads by 8%. Not having anything but intuition to back this up, it always struck me that a survey of how people actually voted should be more accurate than a survey of voter intent.

Comments

Great!!!I have been an independent all my life -this time I am voting a straight Democratic ticket.I despise these stinking Republicans and Today I donated $500 to Darcy Burner’s Camp.Dave Reichert is nothing but a disgusting Republican hack.Go Darcy!!!

With numbers that close its especially important that everyone who knows someone in the 8th Congressional District e-mail or call them personally and urge them to vote for Darcy Burner. Your call urging someone to vote might just be the one putting her over the top. There’s nothing you can do on Wednesday to affect the outcome. A few words from you could make the difference.

Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to.

This is probably an indication of the motivation levels of the respective voting blocs. Darcy’s supporters want to vote NOW, while Rubber Stamp’s supporters will get to it when they get to it.

The Kerry Factor? John Kerry’s “stuck in Iraq” remark has attracted the attention of eighty-four percent of voters, and 19%-including 18% of independents-say it has raised serious doubts about voting for their local Democratic candidates.

The announcement out of Baghdad came as polls suggested some gains for Republicans. A Pew Research Center Survey released on Sunday found that the number of likely voters who said they would vote for the Democrats was now 47 percent compared with 43 percent who said they would vote for Republicans. Two weeks ago, Democrats had an edge of 50 to 39. A Washington Post-ABC News poll found a similar tightening.

These kinds of polls, about the so-called generic ballot, measure national trends and do not necessarily provide an accurate measure of what is happening in individual House and Senate races. Andrew Kohut, the president of the Pew Center, said the poll nonetheless found that Republicans were becoming more enthusiastic as Election Day approached, a sign that the party was making progress in addressing one of its main problems this year: a dispirited base.

These expectations may well be overheated. Polls over the weekend suggested that the contest was tightening, and some prognosticators on Monday were scaling back their predictions, if ever so slightly. (Charlie Cook, the analyst who is one of Washington’s chief setters of expectations, said in an e-mail message on Monday that he was dropping the words “possibly more” from his House prediction of “20-35, possibly more.”)

Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party’s spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle.

Given King County is counting the votes, it is in the bag. The Sheriff would have to get about 3% more real votes than Darcy to actually have more votes counted for him! We’re in!!!

Commentby TellingTheTruth— 11/6/06@ 8:01 pm

Actually I think Reichert has enough to overcome the 3-4% fraudulent vote for the dem in KC. The religous voter is energized and will come out in numbers tomorrow. I think Reichert wins 52-48 which if you were to throw out the illegal and double counted votes he would win 55-45.

Iraqi guerilla attacks against Mulit-National Force – Iraq, Iraqi government and commercial targets typically take the following forms:

Attacks on convoys and patrols using improvised explosive devices Ambushes on Coalition forces with small arms and/or rocket propelled grenade fire and hit-and-run mortar strikes on Iraqi government, Iraqi security forces, and MNF-I bases are also common. Sabotage of oil pipelines and other infrastructure is another tactic often used Assassination of Iraqis cooperating with the Coalition forces and Iraqi government Suicide bombings targeting international organizations, Coalition forces, Iraqi police, hotels, etc. Kidnapping and murder of private contractors working in Iraq for Iraqi government, MNF-I, or for commercial entities. Kidnapping private Iraqi citizens as a fundraising tactic. Supporting Socialist Democrats in the USA.

Terrorism has often been conceptualized as a form of psychological warfare, and terrorists have certainly sought to wage such a campaign through the Internet. There are several ways for terrorists to do so. They can use the Internet to spread disinformation, to deliver threats intended to distill fear and helplessness, and to disseminate horrific images of recent actions, such as beheadings of foreign hostages in Iraq. The insurgents and terrorists in Iraq wage battles with traditional guerilla means as well as by employing psychological warfare on the Internet. Many terrorist groups use message boards, online chat, and religious justifications for their activities. Sites also often provide histories of their host organizations and activities. Bring fear into the Socialist Democrats to vote on their behalf (Terrorist).

I wonder if the Republicans of the 8th District have the short memory to suppose any and every incumbent has had this tough a fight, or if not, the intellectual capacity to guess why a woman with no public service record outraised an incumbent?

I’d think an incumbent from ANY party should be worried here. Why isn’t waving a cross around and following the Prez and party good enough for the majority of registered and decided voters in the 8th alluvasudden?

For the ideologues: would the country be in trouble if it were up to the grassroots and not the Political Action Committees to fund candidates’ legislature campaigns?

Insurgent activity is centered in the Sunni-dominated parts of Iraq, primarily the areas to the northwest of Baghdad and between the cities of Tikrit, Ramadi, Samarra and Fallujah. Sunni Arabs, including Ba’athist and former elements of Saddam Hussein’s regime, Saddamists, sometimes collaborate with international Sunni Arab terrorist networks, providing funds and guidance across family, tribal, religious and peer group lines. The foreigners include jihadists led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s terrorist network, al-Qaida in Iraq, AQI. Together, these groups work to perpetuate a reign of terror designed to breed havoc in Iraq. This also promotes support from the Socialist Democrats in the USA.

Don’t get your knickers in a twist. CNN, Time and Fox Newsw an increase in the generic ballot.

But, fine, Since the Republicans are sure they are going to win tomorrow, I’ll be happy with a pick up of two Senate seats and 12 house seats. Anything above that, I think you would have to agree based upon your post, is a gigantic Democratic win and a total repudiation of Bush.

If the Democrats take out only Man Dog Love Santorum and Maccaca Allen that would have me dancing in the aisles. Add to that Tom Delay’s seat in Congress, and what more could one ask for.

Every decade, the American people have a big election where they say “no” to the status quo and “yes” to a new direction, and this election is a “yes” to a new direction, which is what Democrats are offering.

Now, that’s meaningless because after he made these comments and after his appearance on Meet the Press yesterday these three polling units released their polls that showed the Republicans tightening. Rahm Emanuel has since said of those polls, “This is making me nervous. I don’t know what to make of it.”

Klake at various spots is touting the fact that the President’s approval rating has gone up a bit. A quick check does, indeed confirm this.

According to the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, the President has gotten all the way up to a (drum roll, please) 40% approval rating! Wow! Terrific news for the Republicans! Two out of every five Americans do not believe that the President is a total incompetent!

These numbers are NOT GOOD for Dave Reichert at all. If SurveyUSA has a statistically reliable survey, Darcy Burner should end up winning. And here’s why:

Basically, the percentage of people saying that they are planning to vote is far higher than it is likely to be. The average turnout in even-year mid-term elections (i.e. 2002, 1998, 1994, etc.) has been 60% of registered voters. In 1994, when there was a U.S. Senate race and a GOP sweep, turnout was 59.85% of registered voters.

SurveyUSA surveyed 1000 adults. 873 said they were registered to vote — which is a halfway logical percentage. Maybe a little higher than it should be in reality. 685 of these 873 registered voters said they were basically certain to vote in this election. That would be a turnout of 78.5% of registered voters, assuming that 873 wasn’t too high already for the number of registered voters. If 873 is too high, then a turnout even higher than 78.5% of registered voters.

In reality, it would be amazing if the turnout much exceeds 60% of registered voters. That would be 524 actual voters (60% of 873), instead of 685 (78.5% of 873).

38% of 685 “certain voters” have already voted. That is 260 people, and they have an 8% margin in favor of Burner. Roughly 140 to 120.

If there are 685 actual voters in this sample, there are another 425 people who will vote. Reichert needs a little under a 5% margin among this group to win — 273 to 252. That would make 343 to 342 overall.

If there are only 524 actual voters in this sample (60% turnout), there are only another 264 people who will vote. Reichert would need about an 8% margin among this group to win — 143 to 121.

Sam Reed is predicting a 67% turnout for the general election. But he is basing this on most counties having all-mail voting.

King County has 974,340 registered voters, but only 616,719 mail ballots have been issued. So the turnout among the 358,000 poll voters should be a lot less, and King County should be a good bit lower than the 67% statewide average predicted by Reed. King County is also 80% of the 8th district, the other 20% being in Pierce County.

So the turnout of registered voters will probably fall far short of the 78.5% predicted by the SurveyUSA poll, leaving Reichert with a deficit that will be almost impossible to overcome — assuming that SurveyUSA has made a reliable opinion poll.

I dropped by to see if the signal-to-whine ratio from the republitrolls would be as high as I expected. I’m not disappointed. I have one thing to say to the rethugs…we’re gonna hand you a big old can of whupass this time and if, as I hope, we actually swallow our ethics and set up a few pockets of rovery for 2008, look out. If we tied Haggard and Foley and Hastert and … oh, g-d, the list is endless…around your collectively wattled necks, you would be toast(ed). How about a few charming comments about E. Dole’s appearance while we’re at it? We could make it impossible for her to leave home without a bag over her head.

Sadly, I must admit, I hope we do. One–it would scare the blip out of you; (whiners always whine especially loudly when they get hoist on their own petards)—“It’s not Faaaaaair”. And two, since you’ve paved the way for us, we know it apparently works.

So, Pope et al, watch out — the DemoDervs are gonna get you next time. Saddam Hussein has name recognition — perhaps he should run in King County as a Republican. (What else would he be?)

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