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Friday, May 30, 2014

TELUK INTAN, May 30 (Bernama) -- Whether party or candidate will dominate the choice of voters will be known Saturday when more than 60,000 voters go out to fulfil their obligations in the Teluk Intan by-election.

The 12-day campaign period which would end at midnight Friday saw the contesting parties going through a cooling off period on Thursday as a mark of respect for the late Sultan Azlan Shah of Perak who passed away on Wednesday, before campaigning resumed Friday, as though giving the opportunity for voters to think.

Both the candidates, Datuk Mah Siew Keong, 53, from Barisan Nasional (BN) and DAP's Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, 27, had delivered their respective arguments and manifestos to be evaluated by 60,349 voters in making their respective choices.

Analysts see the Teluk Intan by-election as very competitive and both Mah and Dyana Sofya have the chance, based on their respective credibility and the support to their parties.

To Assoc Prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, a political analyst from Universiti Sains Malaysia's School of Social Sciences, candidate and party were a package and as such, if a candidate came from a party with a good structure, it would be an advantage.

Sivamurugan said there would be voters who looked at personalities in any general election, and in this group, there would be fence-sitters who might, apart from looking at the party and candidate, also looked at issues which strongly affected the voting pattern.

Touching on the Teluk Intan by-election, he said, voters must look at a candidate who could contribute to the constituency, could improve the people's well-being and welfare, and committed to developing Teluk Intan rather than just using certain issues.

Teluk Intan Indian Community Non-Governmental Organisation chairman, K. Shanmuganathan, 37, said the candidate's contribution was an important factor to decide who deserved his vote.

Market trader Lim Yit Ling, 50, said he would pick a candidate not party, regardless of whether the candidate was Malay, Chinese or Indian.

Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities lecturer, Assoc Prof Dr Shamsul Adabi Mamat said picking the candidate should be a priority to voters in the case of Teluk Intan because the candidate would become the voice of the residents in dealing with the government.

He did not rule out the role of the 30 per cent fence-sitters in the country who had significantly helped the less popular parties in the new political landscape.

Shamsul, who conducted a survey in Teluk Intan, saw the two contesting candidates campaigning in earnest, and their strategies would give them a 50:50 chance of winning.

Bukit Gelugor electorate will expect their new Member of Parliament Ramkarpal Singh Deo to carry on where his late father, Karpal Singh, had left. In fact they will expect him to perform better, if not on a par with their former MP.

COMMENTNOW comes the hard part.

For Ramkarpal Singh Deo, getting elected as Bukit Gelugor Member of Parliament is an easier feat than trying to fit into his late father’s shoes.

When Bukit Gelugor electorate decided to allow him to carry on where his late father had left, they expect him to perform better, if not on a par with their former MP.

This is not going to be easy. Karpal was a functional representative both in and outside Parliament and his years of experience in politics left only few in comparison.

His death was a great loss to Bukit Gelugor residents; now that they had given their trust to his son Ramkarpal, expectations are very high.

Karpal had been their MP since 2004, since the parliamentary constituency was created in a redelineation exercise of the electoral boundaries by the Election Commission.

In GE13, Bukit Gelugor voters were more than happy to allow Karpal to continue to be their voice in Parliament. They had put 55,839 crosses against the leader’s name on the ballot papers, enabling him to win 41,778 votes more than his challenger Teh Beng Yeam from MCA, who got 14,961 votes.

Another huge challenge for Ramkarpal is to get endorsement on his own leadership values. There is no argument that the 38-year-old lawyer rode on symphathy and sentiments for his late father.

“He has to get endorsement on his leadership values,” said Penang-based political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian from Universiti Sains Malaysia.

Some Penang DAP leaders were not in favour of the party leadership fielding Ramkarpal, more out of fear that the party would be criticised for practising nepotism.

True, Ramkarpal’s winning majority is short by a few hundreds from what Karpal had obtained in GE13, but this does not mean he does not enjoy the support of the majority.

This situation is more due to lower voter turnout — at 56% — more than anything else.

He had won with a majority of 37,659 votes over his rivals Parti Cinta Malaysia (PCM) vice-president Huan Cheng Guan and two Independents, Mohamed Nabi Bux Mohd Nabi Abdul Sathar and Abu Backer Sidek, all of whom have lost their deposits.

The highly probable reason for the low turnout was that voters felt their votes were not much needed since Ramkarpal was a clear winner, being the indisputable front-runner since day one.

Another contributing factor was that the DAP was not facing its traditional Barisan Nasional (BN) rival candidate from MCA which has opted out from the contest.

There is a possibility that members of BN parties, including from MCA, had stayed away from voting.

It’s also a likelihood that outstation voters did not return as they were confident of DAP retaining its traditional seat.

“Its common to see low voter turnout if BN did not contest,” said Sivamurugan, citing the 2009 Penanti by-election where the turnout was 46.1% and Parti Keadilan Rakyat candidate Datuk Dr Mansor Othman collected 85 per cent of votes from the 7,100 who turned out to vote.

DAP can sigh a relief that Ramkarpal has successfully made his political debut by retaining Bukit Gelugor. The party can now focus on its other political novice, Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud in the Teluk Intan electoral battle at the end of this month.

Bukit Gelugor certainly gives much needed morale support to DAP in a fight where its candidate is the underdog, facing off Gerakan president Datuk Mah Siew Keong, who has more experience.

TELUK INTAN (Bernama) -- If the results in the four previous general elections for the Teluk Intan parliamentary constituency were to be an indicator, the voting trend would lean towards a homegrown representative.

DAP seems to be ignoring Teluk Intan residents' preference for a local to represent them by fielding a candidate who is not only an outsider but a young Malay woman.

Is the DAP so confident that their supporters would not mind changing their preference even for the party?

Many residents when met by Bernama, were unsure about saying yes because to them, voters in Teluk Intan had always been insistent about having a local representative.

Self-employed Eric Tan said voters would be happier with a local representative, whom they could easily meet and communicate, compared to an 'imported' representative.

"We did have that problem in the past and the representative was always not around," he said.

In the 1999 general election, voters chose local Datuk Mah Siew Keong from the Gerakan, who served for two terms until 2008 and local Seah Leong Peng from the DAP, who also served for two terms, from 2008 until his death on May 1 this year.

Tan said the DAP's choice of Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, 27, as their candidate was outside the norm and likened it to the DAP's decision in the 80s to field Fadzlan Yahya in the 1986 general election.

In the three-corner contest among Fadzlan, BN (Gerakan) candidate Ong Tim Kim and PAS candidate Nadzri Baharuddin, Ong won by a majority of 1,443 votes.

Meanwhile, Teluk Intan MIC Youth Chief Sri Murugan said an imported representative would have difficulty looking after the interest and welfare of the constituents and would not understand the needs and expectations of the residents.

He said, should the DAP candidate win, she would not only fail to fulfil the pledges made during the campaign but would not be able to resolve problems faced by the residents.

"The situation is different with BN's candidate Datuk Mah Siew Keong as he is a local. Even when he lost in the election, he would still assist us, regardless of whether we were Malay, Chinese or Indian. If we had a problem, we could always meet him," he said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia (Social Science Studies) political analyst, Associate prof Dr Sivamurugan Pandian opined that DAP's hardcore supporters might undertake a protest vote or refrain from voting to demonstrate against the party's decision to field an outsider and non-Chinese.

"Many factors can contribute to the protest. It can be the factions from within the party in Teluk Intan, the hudud issue and factions at state level," he said.

Sivamurugan said if the protest votes were substantial it might move the parties within the opposition to review their alliance.

"Can residents trust her as their representative? Can she talk about the hudud...even though she is a lawyer but not syariah," she said, adding that a protest vote campaign against DAP could possibly happen.

KUALA LUMPUR Bernama) -- Like in the Kajang by-election, the odds once again does not favour Barisan Nasional (BN) in the Teluk Intan by-election slated on May 31.

BN has to work extra hard to woo the 60,940 voters in Teluk Intan, especially the Chinese who have shown a propensity to vote for the opposition.

Having said that, a political analyst Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said BN still has good chances in increasing the Chinese support in this by-election provided it comes up with a good strategy and counter whatever issues brought by DAP.

"BN needs to do just as what they did in the Kajang by-election in strategising their approach towards the Chinese voters, resulting in 15 percent increase in support," he said.

Therefore, BN has to move as a team rather than leaving everything to its component member Gerakan and its candidate Datuk Mah Siew Keong, 53.

The Teluk Intan parliamentary by-election will see a straight fight between BN's Mah, who is also Gerakan's president, and DAP's Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, 27.

The by-election is called following the death of its Member of Parliament, Seah Leong Peng, 48, of cancer on May 1.

WINNING OVER A LITTLE BIT OF THE CHINESE VOTES WILL HELP

BN sources calculated that if Mah could woo 30 to 35 percent Chinese, 70 percent Malay and 60 percent Indian votes, Gerakan could well add on another parliament seat.

This will be the perfect remedy that the ailing Gerakan now dsperately needs.

And as for DAP, like said by its publicity chief Tony Pua, the party has to at least maintain 70 percent Chinese, 60 Indian and 30 percent Malay votes.

"If the Chinese votes dropped by 15 percent, we will lose the seat," said Pua, who is also DAP Teluk Intan by-election campaign director.

Sivamurugan added that the lower turnout of voters during by-elections could also help improve BN's fortunes.

"In 2013 the turnout was about 80.4 percent and in 2008 it was 70 percent. For this by-election, I believe the turnout will be only between 66 and 70 percent even though the Election Commission (EC) expected a 85 percent turnout," he said.

HOW THE MATHS WORK FOR BOTH SIDES

The analysis of the 13th General Election results in each polling district centres (PDM) revealed that BN has to work hard to increase the Chinese and Indian votes if the ruling party is to improve its result like how it did in Kajang.

There are 37 PDMs in Teluk Intan with 19 of them located at the Chinese majority state constituency of Pasir Bedamar and 18 being predominately Malay PDM under the Changkat Jong constituency.

A BN insider told Bernama the Chinese still hold the trump card in deciding the winner.

"The Malay votes is already reaching its maximum in terms of support with some Malay areas like Changkat Jong already hitting 80 percent. There is limit to how far BN can push further with the Malay votes," said the party insider.

Based on GE13 result, BN won all the 10 PDM in Malay majority seat of Changkat Jong state assembly seat with average support about 70 percent while DAP recorded between 20 and 30 percent support in these PDMs.

However, DAP made up the loses in Malay areas with the majority support from the Chinese, Indian and mixed PDMs. DAP won 17 Chinese PDMs with an average of 80 percent support and three out of six Indian PDM with average 50 percent support.

Not only that, DAP also won all the five mixed PDM Jalan Laxamana, Kampong Guru, Taman Seri Setia, Taman Cecily and Kampong Banjar with average support of 60 percent.

In total, DAP won 25 PDMs as compared with only 12 for BN and this explained why DAP won the seat with a 7,313 vote majority.

NEED TO INCREASE 15 PER CENT CHINESE VOTES TO WIN

In order to capture the Teluk Intan seat, BN needs to increase at least another 10 to 15 percent of votes in addition to the previous 15 percent support it received, and this is not going to be an easy task looking at BN's low support in the Chinese areas.

Most of the Chinese PDMs are located in Pasir Bedamar constituency except PDM Batu Dua Belas Utara, the only Chinese PDM in Changkat Jong.

"An increase in Indian and Malay votes is still not good enough to help BN recapture the seat and if the increase from the Chinese votes is less than 10 percent. This is a huge challenge for the BN," said a local Gerakan grassroots leader.

A WIN IS MOST IMPORTANT FOR GERAKAN

It appears that BN candidate, Mah is going for broke as Gerakan badly needs to recapture the seat in order to revive its flagging fortunes.

In the last general election, the party won one federal seat in Simpang Renggam through Liang Teck Meng.

Mah may have taken a bold but a very risky decision to contest in the by-election as his defeat will probably affect his presidency and spell doom for his political career.

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

DAP and PAS supporters are seen armed with party flags on nomination day for the Teluk Intan by-election, May 19, 2014. — Picture by Marcus PheongPETALING JAYA, May 20 — Much has been said about the looks of DAP’s Teluk Intan candidate Dyana Sofya Mohd Daud, but politicians and analysts say this is irrelevant when it comes to entering Parliament.

They say despite her youth and attention she’s been receiving on the Internet, Dyana Sofya could genuinely be a shot in the arm for Malaysian politics.
Former Bersih co-chairman Datuk S. Ambiga called her “a breath of fresh air”.
“I think she’s tremendous. She’s got guts for being prepared to enter politics at such a young age. It’s also good to see more women entering the scene,” she said.
“She speaks plainly and speaks her mind. All the sexism levelled at her so far says more about the accusers than herself. She has responded well, and carried herself with dignity.”
Ambiga said she was glad to see that Dyana Sofya had not stooped to the level of the people making statements against her.

“I’m horrified by the comments made about her and hope it has not put her off. She shows great promise against veteran leaders. It’s also good for Malaysia in terms of overcoming gender and age barriers,” she said.
Howard Lee, Dyana Sofya’s election agent for the by-election, said there had been “attacks of all sorts, ranging from her looks to speculation that she is being exploited”.
“Neither she nor the party are going to respond in detail to these non-productive issues. We will stick to more important issues relevant to the by-election,” he said.
Wanita Umno chief Datuk Seri Shahrizat Abdul Jalil claimed Dyana Sofya was being manipulated by DAP, and that Umno deserved the credit for shaping her life.
DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, in turn, told Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders to stop making personal attacks against Dyana Sofya and focus on issues such as people’s livelihood instead.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s political analyst, Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, said the 27-year-old candidate showed a lot of promise for DAP.
“She’s one of the rare Malay candidates in the party and she does appear to be well-groomed,” he said.
“However, it may all depend to what extent is she willing stay on in DAP, regardless of the results.”
Seputeh MP Teresa Kok said that over the decades, it had not been unusual for candidates to enter politics while they were in their 20s.
“For example, (DAP leader) Lim Kit Siang entered politics around age 27, and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak at around 24,” she said.
“I have also met foreign senators, for example from Australia, who entered politics in their mid-20s.”
Kok said there were many MPs nowadays, especially from the Opposition, who started out young.
“We shouldn’t focus on her age but more on her views and principles, which she has expressed so far in interviews and (written) articles,” she said.
Papar MP Datuk Rosnah Shirlin said Malaysian politics would genuinely benefit from young people entering the fray.
“However, experience is also important and can only be gained after many years. What’s also important is her objectives,” she said.
“Is she there to serve or merely be used by certain quarters to achieve a certain political agenda? We can see there is a mixed reaction to her so far. She should also think of the implications of being involved in politics. It would be sad to see a girl with potential being used to fulfill other people’s agendas.”

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Datuk Seri Ahmad Said (PIC: The Malay Mail)PERSUADING approach is taken by Barisan Nasional to bring back Datuk Seri Ahmad Said to UMNO.

This is due to the former Terengganu MB’s announcing his UMNO’s return and him informing to the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak through a telephone call, earlier today.

Political analyst, Prof. Madya Dr. Sivamurugan Pandian comments, Ahmad Said’s decision to leave UMNO after his resignation as the MB is highly driven by emotion.

“His return proves the party is his priority and I believe his silly step yesterday was highly driven by emotion.

“His act shows his bitterness for there’s interest that cannot be fulfilled which lead to the decision made influenced by emotion,” he said.

Siva added his return to UMNO indirectly helps BN to be in a better position and UMNO will continue to reign without any changes.

However according to Siva, Terengganu’s political crisis is not completely settled and the new MB, Datuk Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman job is create a drastic plan in order to carry out the responsibility to restore the state’s political condition.

“This challenge should be carried out with intelligence in order to gain back the people’s trust towards the party.

“The next six months will be an important transition to restore the crisis in Terengganu and to ensure it’s fully recovered,” he tells Malaysian Digest.

GEORGE TOWN, May 14 (Bernama) -- The Bukit Gelugor by- election was possibly the most boring election campaign after the 13th general election due to Barisan Nasional (BN)'s absence from the four-cornered fight.

"This (Bukit Gelugor by-election) could be a boring election since the last general election as we don't see any contest between two major political parties.

"Without BN as a well-known party, we will not see an intense campaign in terms of machinery and manpower compared with independent candidates," he told Bernama here today.

Dr Sivamurugan said the scenario of the Bukit Gelugor by-election was almost similar with the by-election for the Penanti state seat in Penang on May 31, 2009 when BN was not contesting.

The Bukit Gelugor by-election will be held on May 25 following the death of its incumbent, Karpal Singh (DAP) in a road accident on the North-South Expressway near Gua Tempurung in Kampar, Perak, on April 17.

The late Karpal, who was a former DAP chairman, won the seat in the 2013 general election with a majority of 42,706 votes, defeating BN candidate Teh Beng Yeam, who polled 13,597 votes.

On whether DAP would seek sympathy votes, Dr Sivamurugan said there could be sympathy votes for the DAP candidate, Ramkarpal Singh, who was also the late Karpal's third son.

"Definitely there could be sympathy votes as a mark of respect to the late Karpal's contributions. Therefore, the candidate must prove his candidacy was not based on nepotism but his own credibility and capability to maintain the majority," he said.

Dr Sivamurugan said on paper, DAP would easily win the parlimentary seat because it was mostly based on party sentiment rather than issues as Bukit Gelugor was an urban area.

"The by-election will not focus so much on development issues at Bukit Gelugor as it is already developed with a high to middle class population. The voters could seek for continuity in development, which was done by the previous state government," he said, adding that the BN government was the one that developed the state and now the DAP-led state government maintained it.

KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama) -- There are two options to the current crisis in the Terengganu Government, note political analysts.

Either the State Legislative Assembly can be dissolved or the Barisan Nasional (BN) should form a coalition government with PAS.

Universiti Sains Malaysia's Social Science Study Centre deputy dean Dr S. K. Sivamurugan Pandian said the impasse could be resolved by dissolving the state assembly if the BN failed to persuade the three former Umno assemblymen who quit the party, to return to the fold.

Terengganu was thrown into a political quagmire after Kijal assemblyman Datuk Seri Ahmad Said, who resigned as menteri besar, quit Umno after his successor, Datuk Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman, who is also Seberang Takir assemblyman, was sworn in last night.

This reduced the BN representation in the state legislative assembly from 17 to 14. PAS has 14 representatives in the assembly and PKR, one.

However, Terengganu legal adviser Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid said the BN was still the legitimate government as it commanded 15 seats in the House, with the inclusion of the Speaker which was counted as one seat.

He said the BN held the legitimacy since it held the reins after the 13th General Election (GE13).

Sivamurugan said the BN took a big gamble by replacing the menteri besar at this juncture as it did not enjoy a two-thirds majority in Terengganu, thus throwing the state's political arena into disarray.

"We do not know what the actual agreement was, between the top BN leadership and Ahmad Said, but gauging the situation, it has led to a break-up in Umno," he noted.

However, it was up to the parties concerned whether they want to patch up to reunite the party or otherwise, he said.

National Council of Professors' Heritage and Socio-cultural History Cluster head Prof Datuk Dr Zainal Kling said Terengganu BN should consider exploring the possibility of forming a coalition government with PAS.

"No need to dissolve the state assembly as BN still has the legitimacy to hold the reins, but it should explore the possibility of bringing PAS into the government.

"This might be for the better as it can help strengthen the government, as well as bring unity among the Malays and Muslims, apart from becoming an advantage to Terengganu.

"If a coalition government is not an option, the dissolution of the state assembly is also not a sensible thing to do as it will expose BN to a bigger risk, even losing the state.

"So, it is better to hold on to the reins as a minority government," he added.

PAS today chided Selangor Menteri Besar Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim over what it says was an “immature” announcement which can create a rift within the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) coalition.

PAS leaders said this after Abdul Khalid’s statement today that he would relinquish his position as the state’s Menteri Besar once his term ended.

PAS Shah Alam Member of Parliament Khalid Samad said that if Abdul Khalid had made up his mind to leave, it had to be soon and not in time for the 14th General Election.

“It is not wise for hiim to have announced it that way, as firstly it is not up to him to decide. He was not self-appointed, but by Pakatan.

“Secondly, if you had made such an announcement, come the next general election, the people will again start questioning as to who can be the next Menteri Besar, leading to an internal rift in PR,” he told The Rakyat Post today.

Khalid Samad said that PR intended to face the next general election with the electorate feeling confident that the coalition had resolved the “MB crisis”.

“In my opinion, if there needs to be a change, it better be done now, with Abdul Khalid vacating his seat immediately.”

Khalid Samad said that this would then give his successor enough time to showcase his credentials come the next general election.

“He (Abdul Khalid) better leave now if he has decided to retire.

“In fact, there is no issue finding his replacement as in PR there are many potential candidates.”

Klang Member of Parliament Charles Santiago felt that Abdul Khalid’s move had a connection with the state’s water woes.

“As the Menteri Besar, he was being pressured over the state’s water woes. This was one way for him to try to get the people to go easy on him as he is on his way out.”

The activist-turned-politician also hinted that Abdul Khalid was possibly trying to gain sympathy votes and using the issue now as he was contesting for the deputy president’s post in the on-going Parti Keadilan Rakyat party elections.

“If he loses, the clamour for him to get out would get more intense. I think he is just posturing,” the DAP lawmaker said when contacted.

Political analysts, meanwhile, said that Abdul Khalid’s announcement was a trivial matter.

Monash University’s political analyst Professor James Chin said it was in fact “no big deal”.“It’s part of Pakatan Rakyat’s internal policy,” Chin said.

Chin also said that many were aware that Abdul Khalid intended to serve until the end.