Top News Story

Stratfor via IranVaJahan

Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni reportedly plans to attend a U.N. conference on democracy in Qatar next week. Wednesday's announcement of the travel plans, which have not yet been confirmed, is the latest event in a series of developments that underscore Qatar's attempts to emerge as a regional player in the Middle East. It also points toward a larger geopolitical trend: Israel's eagerness to court what Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has called an axis of moderate Arab states in hopes of countering Iran and its radical allies as they try to exploit the Arab-Israel conflict to their advantage.

The most significant _expression of this emerging dynamic is the back-channel contact between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But even the Israeli-Saudi attempt to cooperate against Iran is but one of many factors that have come into play in the months since Hamas' January election victory in the Palestinian territories and the brief Israeli-Hezbollah conflict this summer. In other words, the current geopolitical reality of the Middle East cannot be framed simply as an Arab-Israeli alignment against Iran.

The reality is far more complex. It involves Iranian exploitation of the Shiite-Sunni sectarian fault line, the Arab-Israeli conflict and intra-Arab rivalries in its drive to emerge as a regional hegemon. The Israelis are trying to manipulate most of these same factors to counter Tehran's strategy, but are unlikely to be quite as successful as the Iranians -- primarily because of intra-Arab conflicts.

Consider the broad networks of alliances running through the Middle East. Politically, the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia is allied with Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait and the other Gulf states; the Shiite republic of Iran has allies and proxies in Syria, Iraq and (through Hezbollah) in Lebanon. The Sunni Arab states are far from aligned on all issues, however, and this weakens their unity against Iran.

Take Qatar's desire to play mediator in the Lebanese, Palestinian and Iranian crises as one example: Clearly, Doha is not keeping sharply in step with the consensus of Sunni-Arab states in matters related to Iran, and has an independent take on Israel. National self-interest, in this case, is taking precedence over ethnic, religious and regional concerns.

Similarly, the Egyptians -- partly because they are buffered by geography -- do not worry about the rise of Iran nearly as much as the Saudis do. Cairo, the principal force in the Arab League, has long been a rival to Riyadh, and it is recognized as the main mediator in the Arab-Israeli conflict (particularly in matters concerning the Palestinians). Egypt, naturally, is not keen to share these honors with Saudi Arabia -- which likely explains some of the recent statements from Cairo that appear to support Tehran's position on certain issues. Cairo, which harbors nuclear ambitions of its own, has spoken out in favor if Iran's right to pursue nuclear technology, and has expressed support for Tehran as a potentially significant political actor in the region -- something that would assist Egypt in its own moves to counter Riyadh's influence in the Middle East.

Though Egypt is not overly concerned about the growing regional power of Iran, it is rather worried about Syria's attempts to exert more influence in Israeli-Palestinian affairs. Damascus seeks to use its support for Hamas and other rejectionist Palestinian factions to gain a seat at the table in that area. Ultimately, Syria's ambition is not merely to reclaim its influence in the Levant, but to deepen and further its influence in Lebanon (where it competes with Saudi Arabia) and the Palestinian territories (where it competes with Egypt). Thus, Egypt's overtures toward Iran play into two of Cairo's strategies: contain the influence of Riyadh and keep Damascus from inserting new complications in the Israeli-Palestinian matters mediated by the Egyptians.

As if all of this was not complex enough, there also is Turkey -- a unique state in the region, in the sense that it has good relations with all the serious players (Arab states, Israel, Iran and the United States). But Ankara, also, is attempting to carve out a role for itself as a mediator in regional crises such as Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. And it too has apprehensions about an emergent Iran -- though these fears are perhaps not as pronounced as those of the Arabs.

Given the alignments and divisions, Israel -- in a more perfect world -- potentially could develop quiet but workable partnerships with Arab or Muslim states to help check the rise of Iran. And indeed, pressing concerns might generate fleeting impressions that such alliances, as with Saudi Arabia, are being forged. But so long as the Palestinian problem remains unresolved, there will be no lasting or successful partnerships of this sort for Israel.

In what has been labeled by some a breakthrough in Middle East political relations, Qatar on Tuesday extended an invitation to Israels Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to visit the Arab nation for the first time.

Experts are calling the invitation a part of efforts by moderate legates of Arab countries to lead to a diplomatic breakthrough in the region. According to Ynet, the invitation and the possibility of Israel taking up Qatar on the unprecedented move will reportedly be discussed by Israeli leaders on Tuesday afternoon.

Last year, relations between the two countries began to show signs of warming when the foreign minister at the time, Silvan Shalom, met with Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jasam al-Thani, in New York at the United Nations headquarters.

Qatar at the time revealed that it was contemplating establishing open diplomatic relations with Israel.

JERUSALEM Israel's foreign minister is expected to travel to Qatar next week, a trip that would make her the most senior Israeli official to visit the Gulf state in 10 years. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni plans to attend a U.N. conference on democracy, ministry officials said Wednesday.

Livni would be the highest Israeli official to visit Qatar since then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres traveled there in 1996. The Peres visit paved the way for the opening of an Israeli trade office in Doha and low-level diplomatic ties between the countries. Earlier this week, officials said Livni might discuss the Iranian nuclear program and the fate of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas-linked militants in the Gaza Strip.

Qatar, which has low-level diplomatic ties with Israel, also has good relations with Hamas and has attempted to mediate between the sides in the past. Qatari officials were not immediately available for comment due to the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr. (snip)

This could be a big thing. (just one mans opinion, freely given and worth almost that much.)

I'm sure the Olmert-bashing brigade will arrive any minute and blame him for not welding together an Arab-Israeli alliance against Iran. :')

Thanks for posting this topic. The old back channel (even before their 1994 treaty) was between King Hussein of Jordan and the Israeli PM's office. Hussein even tried to warn Golda Meir's gov't of the impending October 1973 war. I don't think that's the case with the late King's son and successor.

Kyodo News published the original draft resolution prepared by Britain, France and Germany calling for economic and diplomatic sanctions against Iran.

Iran Moves to Double Uranium Enrichment.

CBS News reported that Iran expanded its controversial nuclear program by injecting gas into a second network of centrifuges to enrich uranium, a semiofficial news agency reported Friday.

Israeli PM compares Iran With Nazi Germany.

The Guardian reported that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert compared Iran's nuclear ambitions and threats against Israel with the policies of Nazi Germany and criticized world leaders who maintain relations with Iran's president.

The controversy over the Islamic Republics' role in '94 Argentine blast.

CNSNews.com reported that a 1994 bombing in Argentina has been offered as proof of Iran's longtime effort to kill and terrorize Jews. They said the attack twelve years ago is proof that Iranian threats should be taken seriously.

CNN News reported that the Iranian government rejected as unfounded accusations by Argentine prosecutors that high-ranking Iranian officials were linked to a 1994 Buenos Aires bombing.

Amir Taheri, Asharq Alawsat examined the assertion that Iraq is "another Vietnam" for the US. He argued that the problem is that because we are never told what the phrase “another Vietnam” actually means.

Iran Press News reported that a man accused of forging documents and possession of alcoholic beverages lost his hands due to the severity of the torture inflicted upon him. Also in this report: Torture in ward 209: stripped naked and attacked by Russian-trained dogs and the Bureau of intelligence, a place of torture and murder of detainees.

Iran Press News reported that Amnesty International released an appeal for support for student activist and blogger Kianoosh Sanjari was arrested on 7 October whilst reporting on clashes between security forces and supporters of Shi'a cleric Ayatollah Sayed Hossein Kazemeyni Boroujerdi.

Iran Press News reported that Mousavi-Khoini, secretary-general of Fostering Unity was released from prison on Saturday night, October 21st, after 130 days of detention in Evin prison’s infamous ward 209 which is controlled by the agents and torturers of the ministry of intelligence and security.

Iran Press News published excerpts from Mullah Makawrem-Shirazi’s official website site in which he discussed when it is permissible to beat your wife for not meeting her husbands sexual needs.

MEMRITV published a video of an address delivered by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in which he said: "the West was being held hostage by "the Zionists" by means of the Holocaust, and instructed it to pick up "[the Zionist regime]by the arms and legs, and remove it" from the Middle East."

5
posted on 10/28/2006 9:59:04 PM PDT
by DoctorZIn
(Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")

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