Government forces and Al Qaeda rebels are engaged in a bloody fight for the hearts and minds of Yemenis. It is a battle of will that many say is likely to lead to a drawn-out conflict and stalemate with tit-for-tat killings.

Its forces took advantage of the weakness of the government in the south of the country and started taking control of different provinces and cities through its fighters, whose ranks were swelled with Arabs who had previously fought in Afghanistan. These included Saudis who had fled Afghanistan after 9/11, following which, the US launched a war against the Taliban. Members of Al Qaeda, especially those who had escaped imprisonment in Guantanamo, slowly assembled in Yemen to wage a global campaign. This is the background to the present conflict between the government and Al Qaeda, which is reliably thought to be around 1,000 strong.

It is difficult to say which party was adding to the tension, for they all came together. Prior to the shootings, government forces, with the help of American personnel using drones, were repeatedly targetting Al Qaeda operatives. However, there was also the killing of a Frenchman and the attempted assassination of a German diplomat, the storming of the Sana’a Central Prison in February and the kidnapping of a Dutch couple last year. Such developments clearly contributed to the worsening security situation and heightened tension between government troops and Al Qaeda, not least because of the continuing drone strikes.

While the use of drones is being criticised by many, including European politicians and the United Nations, who say such collateral damage is not acceptable, they are being virtually ignored by the government of President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the US, which has vowed to continue what they see as their crusade against Al Qaeda terrorism. If, however, the use of drone attacks increases and government forces step up their operations on the ground, it is difficult to see how Yemeni civilians will continue to keep quiet. They brought down Ali Abdullah Saleh in November 2011, after a 33-year rule.

The bet now is if things get worse, the present government and army could be in for a very rough ride. And this time, it will not be just from the AQAP, but also from the population at large.