Euro 2016: How do the economies compare? Part 2

As the 2016 UEFA European Football Championship (Euro 2016) heads into its knockout stages, we looked at the economic health of the 24 nations involved and pitted the nations against each other in a game of economic “Top Trumps” to find out who would come out on top.

23/06/2016

Schroders Investment Communications Team

With the global economy and its struggles a major focus for investors, we took a look at the economic health of each nation involved in the Euro 2016 football tournament.

How does the tournament work?

As with Euro 2016 there is a group stage where each nation within their respective group goes head-to-head once. That is followed by the knockout stages: a round of 16, quarter finals, semi-finals and final.

A match involves two nations playing directly against each other. Each individual criteria is compared against the other like-for-like. A nation gets one point for each indicator which has the most favourable value.

For example, low unemployment beats high unemployment = 1 point; high growth beats low growth = 1 point; and inflation as close to the global long-term average of 3.18%1 beats inflation further away = 1 point, and so on.

The nation with the most points out of a possible 7 is declared the winner. In the event of a tie the nation with the best odds of winning the Euro 2016 football tournament is declared the winner.

Just like in Euro 2016, 3 points are awarded for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a loss.

And the winner is...

Click the links below to find out how the knockout stages evolved and which country was the eventual winner.

Round of 16 - part one

Romania and Hungary progress after epic matches

Romania made it through to the quarter finals after an epic tussle with Northern Ireland. The match-up was tied at 3-3, but was decided by who has the shortest odds at the bookmakers to win Euro 2016. Romania won with odds of 200-1, compared with Northern Ireland’s 400-1.

Hungary squeezed past the Republic of Ireland in another close encounter. It was finally decided by Hungary’s better FIFA ranking.

England white-washed France 7-0. Meanwhile, the 4-3 score line between the Czech Republic and Belgium flattered the Belgians. The Czechs stormed out to an unassailable 4-0 lead to win the tie early in the match-up.

Round of 16 - part two

The Welsh dragon melts Icelandic hearts

The tie of the section came between Wales and Iceland. Iceland raced out to a 3-1 lead showing better metrics for debt to GDP, unemployment and Inflation. But Wales surged back to take the tie on better HDI, corruption and FIFA ranking.

Germany hammered Austria across all metrics to run out 7-0 winners and advance to the quarter-finals. Sweden and Switzerland joined them after they both registered comfortable 5-2 victories over Spain and Poland, respectively.

Quarter finals

Czechs conquer Romania to make last four

Romania and the Czech Republic enjoyed a close encounter up until the HDI and corruption rankings, which went in the Czech Republic’s favour.

England joined the Czechs in the semi-finals despite slipping behind 3-1 early on to Hungary. England came racing back to win 4-3 with better HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings. Germany saw off Sweden, conceding only 2 points on the way to victory.

Switzerland became the last semi-finalist as it won a hard fought contest with Wales 5-2, with better corruption and FIFA rankings.

Semi-finals and final

Semi-finals: Germany's shock exit and England's shock progress

It was tight up to the half-way point between the Czech Republic and England, but better HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings sealed England a place in the final with a 5-2 win.

The shock of the round saw Germany dumped out of the competition by Switzerland. The match was level at 2-2 heading into the HDI, corruption and FIFA rankings, but with better metrics on the former two Switzerland leapt out to an unassailable 4-2 lead to make the final.

Final: Swiss prove too strong for England

England met Switzerland in the final in a tight affair. While England took the lead on better GDP, Switzerland scored 2 points without reply with better debt to GDP and unemployment metrics.

England levelled things up with higher inflation, but Switzerland proved too strong on HDI and corruption rankings to take an unbeatable 4-2 lead and win the Euro 2016 Economic Top Trump Championships.

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