...EK now gets it first A380 in August 2008, when it should have been receiving its 18th. Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said.

Emirates also is looking at the 747-8 Intercontinental (ATWOnline, Oct. 10), not as an A380 replacement but to fit between the 777-300ER and A380, Clark noted. And he suggested that EK is about six months away from ordering either the 787 or A350 XWB.

EK now gets it first A380 in August 2008, when it should have been receiving its 18th. Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said.

This confirms the information I posted from sources who heard Clark speak in the thread on airlines rallying around Airbus. (As if..I might add, the better metaphor would like tow trucks around a truck smash...).

Emirates has no intention of cancelling any A-380s. I was also told Clark indicated they had 'almost' no intention of getting passenger 748s, because it knows what the Airbus jet can do, and is bloody futious about what it hasn't done, but is unlikely to wait until 2010 to get a jet that doesn't set out to do what an A380 can do, ever, which includes 1000 passenger versions.

If anything else happens to the A-380 no doubt something different might follow.

Perhaps involving whomever is running Airbus on the day, and lots of honey and ants in a quiet corner of an Arabian desert.

The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

I like the notion of customers playing hard ball. Stuff this A and B nonsense, just give me the jets I want, AND WHEN I WANT THEM and good things will happen to you.

Will Emirates grow at a slower rate because of this delay, and can they do anything to grow at the targeted rate while waiting for the A380?

I read in AW&ST that the A380 is a really cool plane. A pilots plane according to the journalist and the performance according to Airbus is better than their guaranties. So Emirates would be foolish not to get the A380. But more than 40? That will be interesting to see where they will be deployed. Anyway the benefit with the Airbus being delayed is that 60 airports will be able to handle the airplane and the 747-8 does not fit into the same box as the current 744 so less airport will be able to get the 747-8 than the 744.

Could there be room for both the 747-8 and the A380 in the same fleet? Time will tell.

Dream no small dream; it lacks magic. Dream large, then go make that dream real - Donald Douglas

Emirates' A380 ``order is intact,'' Clark said. ``We've had to go to the lessors'' because of the delay and ``will probably acquire five or seven more 777-300ERs in the next few days for delivery in the second half of 2008, he said. The Boeing planes will be on 10 to 12 year leases.''

Tim Clark has reaffirmed that EK's entire A380 order will remain in intact. He has also indicated that EK will lease 5-7 more 773ERs for delivery in the 2nd half of 2008 on 10-12 year leases to help with interim uplift.
Source: Bloomberg.
Would seem to indicate the 346 has no chance at EK.

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

Well it is not a secret what Mr. Clark is currently thinking since he has been telling it to both A and B... Strange it hasn't come out yet.

Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

So far, Emirates sees the 787 evolving to a 767 successor, thus not really meeting their needs, however the proposed 787-10 would have the required capacity, yet as currently shopped around by Boeing, it seriously lacks range to be selected....

Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):I was also told Clark indicated they had 'almost' no intention of getting passenger 748s, because it knows what the Airbus jet can do, and is bloody futious about what it hasn't done, but is unlikely to wait until 2010 to get a jet that doesn't set out to do what an A380 can do, ever, which includes 1000 passenger versions.

I was told quite the opposite by somebody who had spoken directly to Tim Clark about it. They are likely to still order the 748I and EK have said the 748I has been under consideration for some time now, irrespective of the 380 delays and they are looking at the cpapcity gap b/w the 773ER and the A380.

Quoting Antares (Reply 2):The version relayed to me was that Clark said Emirates had given Boeing six months to come up with a 787 that was worth ordering. My take on that is, 'we like your nice jet, just make it fly another 1000 miles with an extra 80 passengers'. What could be more reasonable?

Not what I heard from the same source. No order is likely for at least 6 monyths because EK have not received any direct proposal about the 350XYZ from Airbus. Airbus have 6 months to get a firm proposal to EK, or this order will go to Boeing is my take on it. I still fancy EK will split a 787/350 order and a commitment for 100 planes in this category makes the split that much more viable. It may be a sensible strategy as well, as EK will need both Airbus/Boeing to pursue their aggressive growth startegy.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

EK has seen nothing formal from Airbus on the 350XYZ. Ask Tim Clark. Let's see how the 350XYZ firms, as I've already heard whispers that the promised 8,500nm range won't be preserved throughout all models.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

Boeing is certainly working on the 787-10 but my understanding is it isn't as rushed as you suggest.
Put yourself in EK's shoes. Would you order 100 350XYZs from Airbus, given the going's on of the last few months, or would a more sensible strategy be to split the order, or go all Boeing? Logic tells me Airbus won't get all of this order.

I agree. I still do think that the 787 will be the beneficiary of hte A380 delays because there is a reduced confidence in Airbus to delivery on its promises and the uncertainty of the effects of the current crises on the A350, even if Airbus goes ahead and launches the plane.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ? They'll have a truckload of 773ERs when the 350XYZ is due for EIS(when is that again?) and they'll still all be relatively new and Boeing probably will have Y3 as a firm proposal. Additionally, I believe the chances are good that EK will acquire 10+ 748Is.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):
Boeing is certainly working on the 787-10 but my understanding is it isn't as rushed as you suggest.
Put yourself in EK's shoes. Would you order 100 350XYZs from Airbus, given the going's on of the last few months, or would a more sensible strategy be to split the order, or go all Boeing? Logic tells me Airbus won't get all of this order.

I would tend to agree , however it would also depend on various other factors that may lead boeing to present a particular 787-10 that may or may not be of Emirates's liking !

Even without Clark saying it, I think the actions of the airlines have pretty much proved that Airbus is meeting its performance guarantees on the A380. If they weren't then there would have been cancellations. In the mean time the airlines will probably alternate between praising the A380 and b*tching and moaning about it so that they can get the most money from Airbus they can. In any case this doesn't bode well for the 748I. However, the 748F will still probably sell like crazy and keep the 747 chugging along for years.

Quoting Leelaw (Thread starter):And he suggested that EK is about six months away from ordering either the 787 or A350 XWB.

This will be interesting, will Boeing be able to squeeze out the extra 1,000 miles from the -10? This is the multi-billion dollar question. A lot of it probably depends on engines

It will be interesting to see the final launch of the A350XWB and to see the final performance promises of it. Airbus has a lot on its plate right now, but by Clark's comments it doesn't sound as bad as the sensationalist media is making it out to be.

Prediction in the short term (if Boeing is able to get the 787-10 to specs): EK splits the order between Boeing and Airbus, 787-10s and maybe some A359s to replace 777-200s and then A350-1000s to expand on the 773ER fleet or maybe replace some. (though the 773s should still be pretty young by the time the A350-100 comes out) 748I, big time wild card 20% chance of being ordered in best case.

If Boeing can't get the 787-10 to EK specs, then this order will go all to Airbus.

Prediction in the long term: EK along with many of the other gulf carriers experiences serious growing pains from dumping 45 A380s, 100 787s/A350s, 40 777-300ERs, etc. etc. on the market. Result: Boeing and Airbus don't deliver all these planes, which hopefully doesn't affect either.

As the 773ER seems to be "everything they wanted and more", so to speak, adding more (through leasing and additional purchases) probably makes more sense to them then adding the 747-8I. A 10-12 year lease would put the return date on the 773ERs right about when one can expect the A3510 to EIS.

The 787-9 would be a perfect replacement for their 29 A332s. The A358 would be a significant upgauge (~15%) in size.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):Boeing has indeed been given the 'urgent order' to squeeze out all that is left in their 787 and launch it as the 787-10ER, something the brand new design is far from optimized or in fact already up for, but I reckon they are trying to do just that, since is their only option if they don't want to loose this order...

Zvezda has the hard numbers, but the 787-10 has some 20,000lbs MTOW growth available to it over the 787-9 with no structural changes whatsoever. With minor undercarriage changes, she could add I believe another 40,000lbs MTOW. And her wings are good for even more (600,000+).

So to say the 787 is "not optimized" for growth beyond the 787-9 is a bit unjust...

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 7):Emirates has said to sales people in TLS it has come to the conclusion the A350XWB is pretty much what they'd need from a capacity/range point of view, which is quite logic since it is a true yet much more efficient 777 successor designed completely to their specifications, but they'd like to see what Boeing has in minds with their 787 before they take a decision in the first half of 2007....

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 8):Not what I heard from the same source. No order is likely for at least 6 monyths because EK have not received any direct proposal about the 350XYZ from Airbus.

That is quite interesting...it seemed as if they are/were very committed to the 787-10....It was stated that as of July they had no A350XBW orders..but even in the middle of October? Wow..that is a bit hard to believe!!

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 12):EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ?

The A350XWB will not be able to put 10-abreast like the 773ER does for EK..and this negates a lot of the CASM advantages for the A350XWB (and 787)...

Well, if capacity concerns are the over-riding consideration, why not take delivery of some of the A346's? If Airbus was willing to guarantee resale market value for IB, they would surely do it for their largest customer?

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 10):EK has seen nothing formal from Airbus on the 350XYZ. Ask Tim Clark.
EK has seen nothing formal on the 787-10 either.
Currently EK is window shopping only, looking at the specifications of both planes and whether you like it or not, EK has seen the proposals for the A350XWB and is known to have noticed they do coincide with their own needs, something which the 787-10 as currently proposed by Boeing does not, hence their request (I knew some people would fall over the wording 'urgent order') to seriously up the range in order to match the A350XWB.

Quoting 2wingtips (Reply 12):EK love their 773ERs. This was published in ATWonline today but has been known for a while. With 3% better performance than guaranteed and getting 5-7 more leased for 10-12 years from the 2nd half of 2008, I wonder how enthusiastic EK really is on the "777-killer" 350XYZ?
EK does not particularly love the 773ER, that's just what some people on A.net do. EK has a strategy to take the best planes available and since you've brought him in this discussion, ask Zvezda for an easy to understand comparison between the A350XWB and the 773ER and you'll soon see why the 773s might be quickly kissed goodbye.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):The 787-10 has some 20,000lbs MTOW growth available to it over the 787-9 with no structural changes whatsoever. With minor undercarriage changes, she could add I believe another 40,000lbs MTOW. And her wings are good for even more (600,000+).So to say the 787 is "not optimized" for growth beyond the 787-9 is a bit unjust...
Oh, but the 787 can grow beyond the -9 for sure, hence the proposed 787-10, but this stretch will eat in the range of the baseline 787! This is normal for any stretch and it was also planned this way by Boeing, as you can't really cover a market segment from roughly 220 to 350 seats with only one cross section without paying some price for it in performance, regardless how good you are. If somebody comes up with a wider plane, more optimized for the high end, you will hit a hard rock at some point while stretching it to match your opponent (look at the 773 vs the A346) and as I have said many times before, the same goes for the 787 at its low end too BTW, because you are carrying around too much dead weight. (note how the 783 is only marginally lighter than the 'old' all aluminium A300)

There now is a clear demand from a key customer for a stretch with much more range than originally planned and the only way to do so is to increase the fuel capacity of the -10. Ever considered what this extra fuel weight might mean to the above mentioned 'ample weight margins for growth', not to mention the fact volume needs to be found to stow it? The 787-10ER might prove to be impossible in a high density 9-abreast configuration like EK is looking at....

Oh, and for those 'minor undercarriage' changes: I wouldn't call a strengthened double boogie and a center main gear 'minor', especially not in view of the fact Boeing needs to look for some 'lost' space to stow the extra fuel tanks which the -10 suddenly needs...

Clark said Emirates, which with an order for 43 of the aircraft is the biggest customer for the superjumbo, is "angry" with the Toulouse, France-based Airbus but is sticking with the plane for now.

"I hope Airbus puts their house in order," he said. "We have invested a lot in ground facilities so we have to stick with the order for now."

Airbus earlier this month said the highly anticipated launch of the A380 would be delayed for another year.

The latest production holdups, which leave the A380 program two years behind schedule, were caused by problems with the installation of the 300 miles of wiring aboard each plane. Airbus has received 159 orders for the world's largest passenger jet from 16 customers.

Clark said Emirates may order five to seven of the 777-300s made by Boeing Co. to make up the capacity shortfall caused by the A380 delay. He said the airline hasn't discussed compensation with Airbus yet.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 19):Clark said Emirates may order five to seven of the 777-300s made by Boeing Co. to make up the capacity shortfall caused by the A380 delay. He said the airline hasn't discussed compensation with Airbus yet.

Looks like both good and bad news for Airbus. The good news is that there will be no reductions in the 380 order at this time.

The bad news is that EK is going to add 777s even when they have that outstanding order for the 346s. I think it's also bad news that EK is waiting on the 380 compensation issue fora while - it gives EK the opportunity of demanding compensation equal to the highest Airbus paid per plane to other airlines, plus Airbus canceling the 346 order and refunding deposits.

On the 748i side I would be very surprised if EK didn't order some. It fills an empty slot between the 777s and 380s and offers a long term option, both as a pax version and the ability to shift to freighters, depending on how both the 748i and 380 perform for them.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):EK does not particularly love the 773ER, that's just what some people on A.net do.

Clark said the airline is looking at additional capacity options focused around the 777-300ER. It is delighted with that aircraft, which is 3% better than guarantee on its specific fuel consumption and has shown no signs of performance degradation after six months, which is "outstanding," he said

I think that the word "outstanding" is about a close to "love" as you can get when talking about a relationship between a man and his machine!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):The 787-9 would be a perfect replacement for their 29 A332s. The A358 would be a significant up-gauge (~15%) in size.

I should amend this to note that I meant to say the 787-8 is the perfect replacement for the A332.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Reply 18):Oh, but the 787 can grow beyond the -9 for sure, hence the proposed 787-10, but this stretch will eat in the range of the baseline 787!

With the amount of MTOW Boeing has to play with, they can load a 787-10 up with more fuel to get the needed range out of her. She has some 44 LD3s worth of underfloor cargo space (equal to a 773ER) so she could give up 12 LD3's worth of space to match a 772ER for extra fuel space. However, chances are Boeing won't need that much space. A bit longer wing would help. And doesn't one Boeing model store fuel in the rear horizontal stabilizers?

Plus, how much range does EK need? They bought the A345 because it can carry a heavy premium cabin fit-out, not because they needed the range to fly DXB-ZRH. I'm not sure EK wants to fly 350 people 8500nm since they're not demanding that of their 777-300ERs.

Quote:If somebody comes up with a wider plane, more optimized for the high end, you will hit a hard rock at some point while stretching it to match your opponent (look at the 773 vs the A346)...

True, however CFRP gives Boeing more room to grow efficiently then using Al or Li-Al so as they scale it higher and higher, the penalties are not as severe.

Quote:And as I have said many times before, the same goes for the 787 at its low end too BTW, because you are carrying around too much dead weight. (note how the 783 is only marginally lighter than the 'old' all aluminium A300)

It helps the 787-3 is a larger plane, too. Consider how a 787-8, which is very close in size to the A332, is some 50,000lbs lighter.

Quote:Oh, and for those 'minor undercarriage' changes: I wouldn't call a strengthened double boogie and a center main gear 'minor', especially not in view of the fact Boeing needs to look for some 'lost' space to stow the extra fuel tanks which the -10 suddenly needs...

Well some feel a three-bogie undercarriage (ala the 777) would be sufficient. But I am sure Boeing will find a way.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 21):On the 748i side I would be very surprised if EK didn't order some.

There was a statement in the article I had linked to above which indicated that anything but the 777-300ER was unlikely at this point. Clark said something about nothing else had the 380's capacity that was available in time so they would go the 777 route.

One Nation Under God

25 Baroque
: Clark will give an interview on Aus ABC on Eastern Aus time 10 am on Sunday 15 October. Usually these interview go for 10 to 15 minutes, so we might h

26 Solnabo
: From Flytorget: http://www.flygtorget.se/nyheter/nyhetsdetaljer.asp?KatID=1&ID=4437 "EK´s CEO: We stand by the order of A380 Super Jumbo".. Almost sa