AuthorTopic: Malaysian Flight 370 (Read 288630 times)

I have noticed that on most nights (as last night, see below) MAS370 climbs straight to its cruising altitude of FL390. On some nights, it climbs to FL370 and then performs a cruise climb to FL390, which is a way of maximizing performance as fuel is burned off.

On the night of the disappearance, however, the aircraft had only climbed to FL350 before leveling off. This would indicate either that the aircraft was heavier than normal, or that it was restricted by ATC to a flight level that would permit separation with crossing traffic (not really likely at that time of night on that route).

So was there something of great weight (and maybe value) in the cargo hold that would explain this anomaly? Was there an unusually large uplift of fuel to create a greater endurance? Once again, it certainly would be useful to see the F/O's signed weight and balance calculations that were handed over before the cabin door was shut from the jetway.

I agree that at least of the pilots was complicit but if your only objective is to kill the passengers why not just dive it into the ocean? There's much more going on here than a simple suicide mission. Somebody took great pains took make the airplane disappear and then flew for several hours. Unless we're looking at rank insanity (which is a possibility) the perpetrator(s) were on their way somewhere. Someone was waiting for them to arrive. Whether they arrived or not is presently unknown.

This was a sophisticated operation sponsored by somebody who has significant assets.• That airplane was on it's way somewhere and somebody was waiting for it to arrive, land, taxi into a big hanger, close the doors, and the airplane is gone.• If the plane is going to remain hidden you have to control the local environment. That is best accomplished if it's on a military airfield. That means the operation is probably state-sponsored.• It's not about hostages. Hostages are no good to you if nobody knows you have them and hostages are not worth this much effort. Killing the passengers was probably the first thing they did. Put on your mask and de-pressurize the cabin.• The airplane is probably not what they're after. It's not new technology and if you just want to make a flying bomb it's a lot easier to steal an old 727.• Seems to me there must have been something aboard that airplane that was worth stealing. Somebody knew it would be aboard that flight long in advance. The Malaysians have not been forthcoming about what was in the cargo hold. Or it could be as simple as a diplomat's laptop, although there are easier ways to do that.

The template for something like this has been around since 1965. It was called Thunderball.

BTW, I see no reason to see Iran as the culprit. Most of the passengers were Chinese. Why would Iran want to piss off China?

Western China is populated in part by Uighurs, Islamic folk related to the Turkic culture. They have been in revolt against the central Chinese Government for some time now. Recently 30 or so Han were killed by knife-wielding Uighurs in Urumqi, capital of Xinjiang Province. There is obviously the possibility that this aircraft hijacking could be related to this insurrection. I have no doubt that Iran, or Pakistan, would have no trouble aiding these Islamic brothers.

I'd agree it would probably be easier to steal an old 727, but it looks as if someone has stolen this one, so it was obviously possible. I hadn't considered stealing it for what's on it. It would be interesting to know exactly what was aboard.

Well, Dale, being rated in the B727, I respectfully disagree that at this point in time it is anything worth stealing. If it could fly 25% of the way of a 777 you might have a point. The Lockheed 10E could fly twice as far and still deliver a devastating nuclear payload.

The cargo carried on MH370 is certainly an interesting aspect. Suppose it was Gold enroute to China. Suppose clever Uighurs decided to stow away in the cargo compartment, then after takeoff access the main deck through the Mechanical Equipment Compartment. Aided by one of the flight crew, this could have developed into an interesting scenario....

The airlines/security would be very derelict, if the hijackers got control, without setting off an alarm by the pilots (don't they lock cockpit doors these days?). So, the pilots being in on it seems much more likely.

They must have known that when flying over land in Malaysia, they would be seen on military radar, and could/would be intercepted. So the plan for a hijack was not workable/foolproof for the route they took (it seems to have been negligence on the part of the malaysian radar operators that they ignored the unidentified blip). But if they were on a suicide mission, they would not care about being spotted on radar.

If they flew the southern-arc route and crashed into the southern Indian Ocean, as a suicide gesture, experts are saying the plane may never be found because of the depths involved, currents and remoteness of the area.

According to the fuel load figures the plane had enough fuel for a further 2,500 miles from it's last point of contact.

Jeff, what was the takeoff fuel load? Where did this data come from?

Not Malaysian Airlines, they will have the data but it will have to be given to the investigation team first rather than the press. That said the calculations used to get the range of 2,500 miles must be based on distance to destination plus the reserve fuel requirements. The 777 had enough fuel to fly the 2,700 miles (4,345km) to Beijing and the required reserves for the reserve fuel requirements. Of course the Captain might have uploaded more fuel than needed for the destination and reserve, if so Malaysian Airlines will be aware and the investigation team too. It would be an indication of something being very amiss though.

I find the final satellite "ping" location to be very intriguing, but mysterious. If the red lines are an indication of the plane's approx. location during that final ping, it either must've been flying over land for many hours prior, or over the Indean Ocean the entire flight. The northern red line is very far inland, so if it is there, eyes might have been purposely looking away from radar.

Not knowing how accurate these ping indicators are, how likely is it that the plane landed in a country like Iran, Saudi Arabia, or even Pakistan, which are no where near the red lines?

I don't know the technological capabilities of countries like Burma and Bangladesh, or if they have sufficient military radar coverage. Could the plane have traversed those air spaces without knowledge? Just curious.

Concerning your words "But if they were on a suicide mission, they would not care about being spotted on radar". Thinking about this, if they don't care whether or not they are seen on radar, why go out somewhere where they know they won't be seen to commit suicide? What is the logic to this? Right now this makes me think suicide is not what they wanted.

I'd agree it would probably be easier to steal an old 727, but it looks as if someone has stolen this one, so it was obviously possible. I hadn't considered stealing it for what's on it. It would be interesting to know exactly what was aboard.

Well, Dale, being rated in the B727, I respectfully disagree that at this point in time it is anything worth stealing. If it could fly 25% of the way of a 777 you might have a point. The Lockheed 10E could fly twice as far and still deliver a devastating nuclear payload.The cargo carried on MH370 is certainly an interesting aspect. Suppose it was Gold enroute to China. Suppose clever Uighurs decided to stow away in the cargo compartment, then after takeoff access the main deck through the Mechanical Equipment Compartment. Aided by one of the flight crew, this could have developed into an interesting scenario....

Tim, I will readily defer to your knowledge of the B727 and the 777. (My knowledge of piloting is limited to "Stick back, ground gets smaller. Stick forward, ground gets bigger.") My point was that regardless of now much easier it would be to steal another type, the fact that this particular 777 is missing says it was possible to steal it. Time will tell as to what purpose it was taken for.

Could the plane have traversed those air spaces without knowledge? Just curious.

Not without it showing up on military radar systems Greg. Unless it had stealth capabilities heavily armed reception committees would be sent up to investigate. Which makes the overland route look unlikely compared to the route over sea. Incidentally when it flew back over the Malaysian peninsula it was picked up by their military radar but no planes were sent to investigate unfortunately. Which beggars the question why have defence capabilities if you ignore what you see? If they had sent up a couple of planes to investigate the radar blip they probably wouldn't be searching for a missing Malaysian airliner a week later.

And assuming they were operated competently and willingly. Having served around a lot of other nation's military forces, I know it's a mistake to assume all other military forces are as competent (if at all) and as well led as ours are. Some nations have outstanding military forces. Many don't.

China has the hardware for sure, Thailand as well.The former Soviet Union republics of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan inherited the formers air defence network in that area.Whether any country will admit to allowing an unidentified aircraft fly through it's airspace without lifting a finger is seriously being questioned as you point out...

"It has also revived questions about why the Malaysian military did not immediately notice what was happening, and what gaps there might be more generally in military air defences in a region where the defence and security temperature is high at the moment.It has now emerged that Malaysian primary military radar tracked an unidentified contact that flew right across the country's air space, now confirmed to be MH370. But no action, it seems, was taken."

Of course it is certainly a distinct possibility that the airplane was flown through a number of other countries airspace but, will those countries own up to not spotting it, or not doing anything about it if they did?

What I meant was that if they were hijacking the plane, they would not plan on flying over Malaysian land, where they would know that military radar would see them. So that is a point against it being a hijack. On a suicide mission, they would not care if they were seen by military radar.

On your good point on why they would go that way anyway, my thought is that since he/they were going on a suicide anyway, for whatever deranged reason, they wanted to inflict max damage by going south, as far as they could into the Indian Ocean (that is the southern route). That way they may never be found, inflicting further pain on those who had loved ones aboard.

The reasoning can be discussed ad infinitum, I suppose. But this is terrorism any way you put it, and these people do not show any considerations for innocents they may harm.

Probably moot to argue - the satillites almost certainly know. Question is, how much will the masters of those devices say, and when will they be willing to say it? To do so is still, even with Jane's, etc., to tip one's intelligence hand.

But this is terrorism any way you put it, and these people do not show any considerations for innocents they may harm.

The purpose of terrorism is to terrorize to some political end. This doesn't fit that definition - not yet anyway. Mentally ill mass murders are not terrorists. Or this could be Grand Theft Airplane for the purpose of obtaining something aboard the plane. The passengers could be simply collateral damage. No less despicable, but not "terrorism" per se.

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