Gregg Rosenthal

Free Agency Dose

Who's in on Matt Flynn?

Monday was the biggest NFL news day of the offseason, which was reflected in our posts and traffic. It’s only going to get crazier in the coming days, with free agency set to kick off a week from Tuesday. Let’s look at some winners and losers from a fantasy perspective.

Returning to San Diego might ultimately be best for Vincent Jackson’s fantasy value, but Chicago (or New England) could work.

2. Wes Welker: He’ll catch around 100 passes a year as long as he’s with Tom Brady. Any other scenario would have been trouble for his fantasy value.

3. Colts defense: Long-term, the Robert Mathis signing doesn’t make sense. That’s a lot of money for an aging pass rusher that has to learn a new scheme. For 2012, new Colts coach Chuck Pagano just kept a valuable weapon to play with.

4. Cortland Finnegan: I reported on Twitter via a league source that the Cowboys, Bucs, Bears, and Vikings are the favorites to land Finnegan. Dallas and Tampa look like the strongest two candidates. The Cowboys also have interest in Brandon Carr. St. Louis and Denver will also likely get involved, but it doesn’t look like they’ll extend enough financially.

6. Arian Foster: Say hello to your No. 1 overall pick in 2012 fantasy drafts. It is outstanding news for Foster’s keeper league owners that he’ll stay with the Texans throughout the prime of his career.

Losers

1. Ben Tate, Texans: See above. Tate is going to be one of the league’s most valuable backups, but he’ll still be a backup.

2. Marques Colston: It looks more and more that Colston will leave the Saints. One of the most consistent fantasy wideouts of his era, there’s simply no way Colston will find a better situation outside of Nola.

3. Hines Ward: If the Cardinals aren’t interested in Ward, there’s a strong chance no one will be.

On Bounties

The Saints bounty scandal reminded me of a passage from The Best Game Ever by Mark Bowden.

49ers fullback Joe Perry was running a decoy pattern in 1954 nowhere near the ball when he was clubbed to the ground by a Colts tackle named Tom Finnin.

“Hey Finny, what the hell are you doing?” Perry complained.

Finnin shrugged.

“I get points for that,” he said.

Matt Flynn belongs. In three extended NFL appearances, he’s looked like a competent starting quarterback all three times. Competent starting quarterbacks get paid a lot of money.

So how much money is Flynn worth? I went back to watch Flynn’s two career starts and his relief outing against the Lions from 2010. Here were the takeaways:

Better than Kolb

It’s hard not to compare Flynn to Kevin Kolb, the trendy backup ready to make bank at this point last offseason. I remember going back to watch Kolb’s outings and came away less impressed.

Flynn showed attributes that are difficult to teach, especially for a young quarterback. He didn’t look like a young quarterback. He went through his reads and saw the field well. He made safeties move with his eyes. He picked on the opponent’s weakest defenders. Most importantly, Flynn threw the ball well when the pocket collapsed.

Pocket presence might be the most important quarterback skill that is almost impossible to teach. Kolb doesn’t have it. (Blaine Gabbert really doesn’t have it.) Flynn connected on passes while getting hit, and showed the ability to improvise when necessary. He can throw on the move while running left and right.

Accuracy might be the most important quarterback skill overall. Flynn completed 65% of his throws in his three games. Many throws were short, but he knew when to get rid of the ball quickly. His misses were generally not by much or “good” misses. I chart an informal number called “bad passes” when I watch quarterbacks. Only 17% of his throws qualified as bad passes, which is a low number. (Trust me.)

It gets tricky to give a quarterback credit for intangibles but its hard not to be impressed with Flynn. Facing the streaking Patriots in Week 15 of 2010, with a lot on the line, Flynn acted like he had done it all before.

He got up laughing after taking a big hit in the fourth quarter of a close game. He threw an interception returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which was largely the receiver’s fault. A lot of young quarterbacks go into a shell at that point.

Instead, Flynn’s very next throw was a pass into a tight window to the same receiver (James Jones) on almost the exact same route. Completion. Onions.

Concerns

The overall numbers from Flynn are outrageous: 908 yards, 8.4 YPA, nine touchdowns, two interceptions, and two fumbles in just two and a half games.

Flynn was promising in his outings, but he wasn’t that good. His arm looks average for an NFL quarterback at best. His deep ball was underthrown a few times. The Patriots did a nice job blitzing him in 2010, and Flynn looked a lot more comfortable out of shotgun in 2011. He occasionally held on to the ball too long.

Add it all up, and I’d easily take Flynn over Kevin Kolb from a year ago. I give Flynn a better chance of developing into a difference-making quarterback than Matt Cassel. Most likely, though, you will need the right situation around Flynn to make it work. But he can be a league average starting quarterback sooner than later, and that has plenty of value.

Possible destinations

1. Miami: Dolphins coach Joe Philbin is the only coach not on the Packers that knows if Flynn has what it takes. You can only draw so much from three games. Philbin has seen Flynn every day in practice for four years. If the Dolphins don’t go after Flynn, I’d usually consider that a red flag.

There is only one problem with that theory: Peyton Manning is available. Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is desperate for a big name to make his team a marquee franchise again and reports indicate Ross will push to sign Manning, whether Philbin is truly on board or not.

Miami is the best home possible for Flynn. He knows the system and they have better depth at wide receiver than they are given credit for. If the Dolphins sign Manning, that leaves the Browns and Seahawks as the expected contenders for Flynn.

2. Browns: This feels like the move Browns President Mike Holmgren wants to make. Flynn fits what Cleveland wants to accomplish offensely. The Browns appear antsy about giving up tons of draft picks for Robert Griffin III. Waiting for the draft allows for a risk that the Redskins (or a mystery team) outbid Cleveland for RGIII, and the Browns get stuck wasting another year with Colt McCoy.

My money is on Cleveland making it happen with Flynn.

3. Seahawks: Seattle has ties to Flynn through G.M. John Schneider. The Seahawks aren’t afraid to be aggressive going after quarterbacks. Will the Seahawks see Flynn as a big-enough upgrade on Tarvaris Jackson? I doubt they’ll be as aggressive as Cleveland.

It’s hard to see another fit for Flynn. If Miami doesn’t get involved, don’t be surprised if Flynn doesn’t get the contract (north of $9 million-per-year) that he desires.

Monday’s scoreboard

Monday was the biggest NFL news day of the offseason, which was reflected in our posts and traffic. It’s only going to get crazier in the coming days, with free agency set to kick off a week from Tuesday. Let’s look at some winners and losers from a fantasy perspective.

Returning to San Diego might ultimately be best for Vincent Jackson’s fantasy value, but Chicago (or New England) could work.

2. Wes Welker: He’ll catch around 100 passes a year as long as he’s with Tom Brady. Any other scenario would have been trouble for his fantasy value.

3. Colts defense: Long-term, the Robert Mathis signing doesn’t make sense. That’s a lot of money for an aging pass rusher that has to learn a new scheme. For 2012, new Colts coach Chuck Pagano just kept a valuable weapon to play with.

4. Cortland Finnegan: I reported on Twitter via a league source that the Cowboys, Bucs, Bears, and Vikings are the favorites to land Finnegan. Dallas and Tampa look like the strongest two candidates. The Cowboys also have interest in Brandon Carr. St. Louis and Denver will also likely get involved, but it doesn’t look like they’ll extend enough financially.

6. Arian Foster: Say hello to your No. 1 overall pick in 2012 fantasy drafts. It is outstanding news for Foster’s keeper league owners that he’ll stay with the Texans throughout the prime of his career.

Losers

1. Ben Tate, Texans: See above. Tate is going to be one of the league’s most valuable backups, but he’ll still be a backup.

2. Marques Colston: It looks more and more that Colston will leave the Saints. One of the most consistent fantasy wideouts of his era, there’s simply no way Colston will find a better situation outside of Nola.

3. Hines Ward: If the Cardinals aren’t interested in Ward, there’s a strong chance no one will be.

On Bounties

The Saints bounty scandal reminded me of a passage from The Best Game Ever by Mark Bowden.