Tuesday, February 15, 2011

tic..tic..tic..Sarah Palin? tic..tic..tic.. Mike Huckabee?

I personally believe that Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney are running for President in 2012. I also believe Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, WILL NOT RUN!

This is how I figure it. Let's look at Mike Huckabee:

For the first time in his life, he his making the BIG BUCKS. His celebrity on Fox, has also given him a chance to boost his book sales. I don't believe he would want to take a chance on losing all of that unless his nomination would be almost GUARANTEED. IT WOULD NOT BE. There are many reasons for this that I will let others bring up.

Looking back, the last time a political figure left his own TV show to run for President was Pat Buchanan, when he left the very popular show "Crossfire". I wonder if he could do it all over again, would he? He is now delegated to minor appearances on CNN. He's not the BIG ENCHILADA any more. Like Buchanan, I don't believe FOX would take Huckabee back. At least, in the same capacity as before.

Huckabee is still relatively young, mid-50's. In 2016/2020, he will still be young enough to make a SAFER run and he'll have a MUCH BIGGER bankroll.

Next up, Sarah Palin:

Sarah Palin is pretty much in the same situation as Mike Huckabee.

But unlike Huckabee and according to most national polls, she is less liked by voters and has very little chance of beating President Obama in the general election.

Weighing all of that. Does she really want to take a chance NOW? I don't think so.

She is still very young and is making huge amounts of money between her Fox contract, her books, and her speaking engagements.

Some would also argue that she needs to polish up her image. True or not, there is the perception that she is not ready for the White House. Many are split on this issue as to it being the perception that the media has created or just her style and demeanor that many feel is not presidential.

One way or another, Both Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin will have to decide which is more important to them and their families. The comfort of their new found security and wealth or the unknown results of a national campaign.

Bosman, I think your premise is wrong on both accounts. Palin probably doesn't make that much money appearing on FOX every once in a while. I agree Huckabee has a nice cushy spot on that network but he has that position because he was a viable candidate. Palin has the fans she has, predicated on taking the next step toward a Presidential run.

For Palin, I believe, she has to strike now while she is still relevant and she is still a hot commodity. Sure she's young but before long the next best thing will come around and she will lose her opportunity. I believe it is better for Palin to run and lose than to not run at all. By some accounts, Palin has been Obama's biggest, most vocal, critic on the right. If she refuses to run against him, now, then what kind of message will that send to her supporters?

Now the question is, do I think either of them will run? Palin...yes I do think she is running or at least seriously thinking about it. Huckabee...I do not think he will run and I think he has already made up his mind. I'm not sure he can raise enough money to run another campaign. He'll have no other candidate to shadow, so he will have to spend a lot of money keeping his position on the hill...he has shown he has little access to.

So, in his instance, the cushy FOX job might be enough to keep him off the ticket.

The fact that Sarah just hired a Chief-of-staff tells me she is serious about considering whether or not to run. You simply don't hire such a staff member without being serious about it.

That places her chances of running over 50% for the first time since I've been watching her. She may well end up deciding not to run, but she will be at least prepared to if she decides, "Yes, let's do this thing".

Huckabee, on the other hand, is sitting on his hands. He may very well be mulling over a run, but he has yet to get serious about it. He simply isn't going out of his way to prepare. He is reacting more than acting.

I wonder if Huck has inquired with Fox whether he could have his gig back if he runs and doesn't win.

If so, he may have gotten the standard "maybe, but no guarantee". It wouldn't surprise me if it was discussed that it could be partly dependent on whether his persona took a hit in any way, e.g. getting clobbered in the primary or general, inadvertently making unacceptable comment(s), etc.

So, Huck is likely weighing the pros and cons of running. I'm sure he doesn't want to let down his supporters. He also certainly wants to continue influencing the national debate over more than just the short term--maybe he'll decide he can be the best voice for his message from where he is now.

Both will be has beens by 2016. It is now or never for them. I hope Palin does run because I want the arguments in the GOP settled once and for all about her viability. I fear a Huck run because I think that if he can get the donations he has the best chance of winning. So I hope he likes his Fox job too much to run.

hamaca, I think they might be playing some kind of tag with one another. They are obviously aware that they both pull from the same voter demographics. Maybe they are taking steps to see what the other's reaction will be?

IMO, Palin gets in first...perhaps within the next couple of months. Hopefully the restlessness from the Huck so-con support, waiting for Huck to make up his mind, will create an opportunity for Palin to bleed some of that support? Perhaps, Huckabee does not want to run at all and is waiting until Summer in hopes that Palin will run...that way he will have a good excuse for not running, so as not to lose some of his key viewership? Or perhaps, he wants to see what type of support she does get before he decides to go all in or not? It's really just conjecture at this point.

One way or the other, I don't think Palin is going away. She could also be positioning herself for a VP slot on a ticket. Maybe a deal up front to whoever she decides to support. Hence, the COS as well.

As VP, she could silence her critics by running with the ball and doing a decent job and satisfying those who feel she is not ready yeat. 4-8 years as a VP would do that.

I think Palin will run and Huckabee won't. I think that if Huckabee doesn't run, Sarah Palin will win the nomination and beat Romney and Gingrich by a lot. Then if the GOP loonheads don't shoot her down, she'll beat Obama.

The interesting thing is Daniels. He is getting a lot of buzz. I have always said that I don't think Huckabee, Palin or gingrich will run. It is becoming more and more clear that the issue is going to be spending and debt. This may turn into a Romney vs Daniels fight.

Bosman, she could also silence her critics by running a solid campaign with very good debate performances. Her numbers will only increase if that happens. So, even if she is jockeying for another VP slot, which is doubtful, she still needs her approval numbers to rise to be viable in the VP slot. The only way that happens is for her to show the nation that she is not the boogeyman that they were told she is.