Thunderforged drop chance

Does anyone know the drop chance of Thunderforged in 25 vs 10s? I was watching Midwinters stream yesterday and they got i think 6 on the first kill of Primordius. Is that normal? Or amazing luck? I'm looking for a new guild at the moment and this seems like it could impact progressions a lot if it's like a 50% drop chance vs say 10%.

It will probably be around the 19th, as the PvP season ends on the 5th and heart of the swarm launches on the 12th. I hope to god their not dumb enough to try and release a new tier of raiding AND a new game on the same day.

If I had to guess I would say on a full clear one or two from all the bosses? this is completely my opinion though, if I worked for blizzard and wanted to make this tier last longer by getting guilds to run all bosses every week for the chance at Thunderforged gear it would be best to use a dam type approach with two streams to this gear.

Edit: just to elaborate on what I mean by dam approach, just in case it is not clear.

All the gear that can drop from all bosses in tier 15 that are not Thunderforged gear are the larger river, Thunderforged gear are the smaller river that all fill into the dam, more gear is coming from the larger river but some still from the smaller one, the dam in this case is the raid being able to kill a boss, sooner or later gear from that smaller river will go through.

If I had to guess I would say on a full clear one or two from all the bosses? this is completely my opinion though, if I worked for blizzard and wanted to make this tier last longer by getting guilds to run all bosses every week for the chance at Thunderforged gear it would be best to use a dam type approach to this gear.

I was hopping it would be something like that, but after seeing midwinter it may be more like "LOL MORE THUNDERFORGED" Than again it could just be the PTR. As someone who is debating going to a 10 man guild i would hate for the patch to hit and clear content and realize that 25 mans will be WAY ahead of 10s because they just have superior gear.

It will probably be around the 19th, as the PvP season ends on the 5th and heart of the swarm launches on the 12th. I hope to god their not dumb enough to try and release a new tier of raiding AND a new game on the same day.

not sure if you realize this but EVERY tier in since Ulduar was released on the day the PVP season ended. so march 5th is the release.

But as to the thunderforged I Made a post on the forums about it http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/7980167997 The way it is currently It needs to change unless the 40-50% drop rate was just a bug 10 mans are gonna get bent by blizz since blizz has stated our drop rate will be lower THEY NEED EQUAL DROP RATES. we already have trouble getting even close to BIS while 25 mans can get BIS then BIS alts. So giving them higher level gear at a higher rate is just stupid.

It will probably be around the 19th, as the PvP season ends on the 5th and heart of the swarm launches on the 12th. I hope to god their not dumb enough to try and release a new tier of raiding AND a new game on the same day.

patch comes out the 5th, pvp starts a week after. has been like that for the past few seasons+. i have a feeling thunderforged for 25man is going to be like the random boss trinkets in DS. it may say its a low drop but if you were in a 25man, almost everyone got their trinket early on. if you were in a 10man, youd be lucky to get 1-2 for the entire tier.

Assuming they didnt buff drop rate of TF items on PTR and it stays the same on live, it seems their drop rate for 25 isnt that low...

Which begs the question what is the drop rate on 10 man? If I remember right the blue post said the drop rate on 25 is slightly higher than 10 - if for e.g. with made up numbers, drop rate on 25 man is 50%, and 10 man is 40%, that's not exactly that much lower. But if drop rate on 25 was 50% and on 10 man was 5%, that's not "slightly lower" either...

Based on their post, I don't think dropping that much is intended, and TBH, it doesn't make sense if half the items are TF. I don't think they ever gave a specific number but they did say it was supposed to be higher in 25 mans, so maybe they are supposed to be something like 8-10% drop chance in 25 and 4-6% in 10s. So a full clear (plus bonus rolls) in 25 man should at least give you a good possibility of seeing at least 2-4 in a full 25 man clear and at least one in 10 man. Mostly just speculation on my behalf but I know they aren't supposed to drop like they are.

All of these are guesses. Some are educated, well-thought out guesses, some that make sense, some I agree with, but guesses nonetheless. We won't know until 5.2 is live for at least a couple of weeks. The key to statistics is a large sample size after all. We don't even know if the PTR droprate will match the live one.

Based on their post, I don't think dropping that much is intended, and TBH, it doesn't make sense if half the items are TF. I don't think they ever gave a specific number but they did say it was supposed to be higher in 25 mans, so maybe they are supposed to be something like 8-10% drop chance in 25 and 4-6% in 10s. So a full clear (plus bonus rolls) in 25 man should at least give you a good possibility of seeing at least 2-4 in a full 25 man clear and at least one in 10 man. Mostly just speculation on my behalf but I know they aren't supposed to drop like they are.

Where are you getting those #'s from? The only things we have to base TF gear off of is the fact that they said TF would have a "low drop-chance" but it would have a higher chance to drop from 25m's.

In the PTR we know that many groups were seeing 3+ items dropping off bosses they killed, I personally killed Megaera the other day and it dropped 4 out of 6 TF gear.

The only thing I can hope for is if 25M does drop that high for TF that 10 man at least gets 1/2 TF gear (though that would then mean pretty much every piece on tier bosses would be TF).

The only other thing we can hope is that the #'s are inflated for PTR testing, but there is no way we can guess what the numbers will be when live launches. Obviously the point of the elevated drop-rates for 25m is to get more guilds to go 25m or for guilds to stay 25m, but I don't see how they can do this balanced enough not to harm 10 man guilds.