Well the forecast in my preview of Day 1 didn’t quite go to plan yesterday; you live and learn! The opening three races on today’s card are Mares Listed races which is something a bit different, but look like they could pose a few problems.

Dusky Legend and Verdana Blue finished third and fourth respectively in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at the festival with Coillte Lass well back in the field. Based on that run it is very difficult to split the first two. Coillte Lass actually beat Dusky Legend relatively comfortably at Taunton earlier in the season and can be excused for her run last month as Paul Nicholls’ yard wasn’t exactly flying.

Deauville Crystal is an improving four year old who won twice in six days at the end on March and deserves her chance with the step in distance likely to suit. However, this ground is probably quick enough for her and she might want it a bit softer. Casablanca Mix is having her first run for Nicky Henderson since coming over from France. The yard is in good form and it would be no surprise should she out run her odds.

Brillare Momento is unexposed for Martin Keighley and both her runs on good ground have been very encouraging. Her first was on stable debut where she finished a neck runner up and the second was last time out when she won comfortably and this distance should be ideal.

Carrying top weight, Antartica De Thaix is favourite and deservedly so when looking at her latest three victories. An aggregate winning distance of eighty lengths from those wins is very impressive and she may prove far too good for these back in a handicap.

Briery Belle found life tough on New Years Day in a Grade 2 behind Whisper and was subsequently pulled up in the RSA. Back in amongst her own sex here she should prove far better and 7/1 could make her overpriced.

Magic Money was brave when winning at Haydock at the weekend but this is only five days later and against much better opposition looks up against it. Plaisir D’Amour has won twice since joining Venetia Williams, was pulled up over a furlong further than this trip on heavy ground but this sounder surface will help.

3.15 Catesby Property Group PLC Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Listed)

A fourth in the Mares Hurdle at the festival was a top performance by Indian Stream and she has gone up 7lb for that, but she did win a chase off a mark of 2lbs lower than this one so it’s not as harsh as it first looks. She does have to concede plenty of weight all round though and that will be tough. Snow Leopardess won really nicely last time and has improved steadily this season, but she has been raised 12lb for that win which does look a bit excessive. Softer ground would also be more ideal.

It may pay to stick to the top of the weights here and as well the aforementioned pair, Midnight Tour is up there. She wasn’t disgraced at the Cheltenham Festival and has run well on good ground previously.

Others to note may be Carnspindle who is in good form seeking a hat-trick and seemed to enjoy the step up in trip last time out. On Demand had been extremely consistent for Colin Tizzard until disappointing in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle at last time, but a return to this trip should suit her.

3.50 Llewellyn Humphreys Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Most of these come into this out of form, Upswing is the only one coming in on the back of a win. However, he has been raised 7lb for a head victory. The front two were a long way clear of the third though and a repeat of that could be enough amongst out of sorts rivals.

Virak has consistently been dropping down the weights this year, but even off a mark of 144 he looks vulnerable considering how little promise he has shown this season. This is a drop in class though and if a hint of his old self returns then he must stand a chance. Lamb Or Cod won here in December and is only 3lbs higher today but has massively disappointed in his last three and needs to bounce back.

Back on good ground Belmount could show himself in better light. Since winning twice on a sound surface at the start of the season Nigel Twiston-Davies’ charge has lost his way on winter ground and gets in off a low weight.

4.20 Kingston Stud Supporting The IJF Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

Mr Clarkson arrives here in great spirits having won four of his last six starts and if staying this longer trip is a major player, but yard from would be a concern. Two Swallows has also been running well recently and beat some decent sorts at Taunton, but the same comment can be made regarding the yard form.

Duke Street was running well prior to finishing down the field at Aintree. His fourth to Brio Conti at Kempton is a decent bit of form and if staying the trip could be in with a shout. Solomon Grundy was behind Duke Street in that race but was hampered and with Noel Fehily on board can give a good account.

4.55 Nicholson Holman Chase (Class 3)

Boa Island got back on track at Chepstow last time and has cheekpieces applied for the first time here. He’ll like the ground but a 7lb rise for that latest win seems harsh. Mr Shantu has won his only previous start over fences and has been given an opening mark of 132 which is the same as he is over hurdles. He is generally consistent and this good ground will play to his strengths.

Fact Of The Matter won at Exeter two starts ago and that form has been franked as the second and third have both won since. An 8lb rise for that doesn’t look unreasonable, he hasn’t been seen since November and if starting where he left off can go close. Swincombe Scorchio finished second to Rock The Kasbah on his penultimate smart at a whopping 100/1 and then backed that up with an easy win last time, he has gone up 15lb but is clearly a rapid improver.

Ten Sixty has only had three starts over fences and he got off the mark last time out at Newbury where he beat Global Dream, who was on a hat-trick that day and has since finished second again off 2lbs higher so that form is good. If being able to reproduce that then he is probably the one to beat.

Melangerie was way back in her first two starts behind the subsequent Aintree Mares Bumper first and second, she showed improvement to win at the third time of asking but has a 6lb penalty to contend with.

Pique Rock made her debut in a Listed race but couldn’t build on that in a weaker event next time and a hood is reached for. Grania O’Malley finished second on debut and wouldn’t need to find too much improvement to be involved.

While there is some excellent action going on at Newmarket for the Craven Meeting, Cheltenham is staging it’s last event of the season (excluding the Hunter Chase evening). As usual, the quality is very good and we’ve got some decent jumps action to get stuck into.

2.05 Citipost Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2)

Nicky Henderson bypassed both of the British spring festivals with William Henry and this looks like a golden opportunity to get back to winning ways. He has only won once over hurdles, but his two losses have been a length behind Pingshou and three lengths behind Wholestone, need I say more. That form is obviously extremely strong and as odds on shots go, he deserves to be one.

Azzerti has shown decent form with seconds behind Movewiththetimes and High Bridge, but his win last time out wasn’t very convincing against far inferior opposition and will need to massively improve on that to be involved here. Coastal Tiep has a good bit of form in a Handicap Hurdle at Kempton but again would need a personal best to stand a chance with the favourite.

Blairs Cove has shown ok form in bumpers over in Ireland and has his first run for Dan Skelton, who is in great form. Saying that this a tough ask on hurdles debut. Solighoster looks the overpriced one in the field at 9/1 considering his recent second to Fountains Windfall has worked out very well, with that one winning a handicap at the Aintree festival by a facile eight lengths. In his two races prior to that, Solighoster won by seventeen lengths and fourteen lengths. So in my eyes he is the one to give the favourite the most to think about.

2.40 Silver Trophy Handicap Chase (Grade 2)

Six of these competed in the stable plate at the Cheltenham Festival, including Village Vic who put in three solid efforts round here before disappointing in that race and is again lumbered with top weight, the good ground is also probably not in his favour either. Starchitect performed well finishing fifth but this is only a couple of weeks after his Aintree exploits, which is also the case for Henryville. Voix D’Eau and Art Mauresque are closely matched based on their previous encounters, while Thomas Crapper is in great form and should like the ground.

Emma Lavelle’s yard is in good form and she saddles Casino Markets who hasn’t finished outside the top four in his last seven starts. This however is a huge step up and will need to be better than ever to get involved. Dresden was a long way behind Thomas Crapper at Newbury and has plenty to find, as does Un Beau Roman who has disappointed since a couple of top efforts here at the end of last year. This trip should suit Foxtail Hill better than the two miles at Aintree and if getting his own way in front could be tough to catch.

3.15 Arkells Brewery Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

A competitive race where a few of these could be well handicapped. River Frost carries top weight and wasn’t disgraced when ninth in the Coral Cup off a mark of 143, that is strong form and he has had a short break. Its’afreebee was third in the Neptune last year but hasn’t been close to that kind of form over fences. If this return to the smaller obstacles brings him back to last seasons form then a mark of 142 is very lenient.

Drumcliff disappointed at Musselburgh after a couple of decent runner up efforts and he has been dropped a couple of pounds and off a low weight should give a good account of himself. The worthy favourite is Divine Spear who’s second last time is a strong form line with the winner going on to run well in a Grade 1 at Aintree. Prior to that he was second to Air Horse One who subsequently went on to finish fourth in the County Hurdle. Only 6lbs higher than that run, he is definitely the one to beat.

Qualando won the Fred Winter as a juvenile and looked to be getting back in the swing of things when second on his first run for Alan Jones behind The Unit who went on to be third in the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree.

3.50 Racing UK HD Sky432 Handicap Chase (Class 3)

Fourth Act has slipped down the weights this season and is beginning to look an attractive proposition off a mark of 129 considering he wasn’t disgraced in a Grade 3 at this track when fourth off 137 in November. If rediscovering that form he could be well handicapped. Any Currency won this race last year but he hasn’t been the same since and age may be catching up with him.

After three consecutive seconds Doing Fine will be looking to go one better for Neil Mulholland. He’s off the same mark as last time out when he was top weight and being one of the only ones in form in this field must have a great chance. Azure Fly didn’t respond well to the blinkers last time but was very consistent before that, his mark hasn’t moved much and may find one or two better again.

Troika Steps has only completed once of his last four starts which is a worry, but prior to that he ran a brilliant race at this track off 1lb higher than this mark. Fergal Mael Duin will need to put three poor starts behind him to figure and Millicent Silver is in good form based on her recent runs but all her winning has been done on soft and heavy ground.

4.25 Safran Landing Systems ‘Confined’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

Pillard finished midfield in the Fred Winter last year but is still a maiden under rules. His mark seems fair and if improving for this marked step up in distance, could be a major player. Mckenzie’s Friend has slipped drastically down the weights since his opening mark of 130 and could get involved if running up to the form of his last run behind some decent opposition at Wincanton, blinkers are reached for and if having the desired affect he could be well handicapped.

Max Forte ran out of steam on soft ground last time so hopefully on this sounder surface he will be able to see out the trip. His only win has come on good ground which bodes well. Since winning off this mark last year The Artful Cobbler has struggled off higher marks, but if rediscovering some old form he could be a real danger. First Fandango has been out of sorts for a while now, he showed a bit of improvement last time at Newbury in finishing second and if building on that can go close. His last win was off 28lbs higher than this and with the services of Richard Johnson if he doesn’t go close here then I think he’ll struggle in the future.

5.00 Weatherite Novices’ Chase (Class 2)

The standout in this field is clearly Marracudja, who has been behind Altior twice this season before breaking a blood vessel in a Grade 2 last time. He has had a bit of time off since then and if there are no ill effects, he’s undoubtedly the one to beat. The good ground should suit him and he won at the track in October, so there are no worries there.

Next in the betting is Mick Thonic for Colin Tizzard. He finished midfield in the Grand Annual last time but that was his first run for four months. If back to the form of his second around here on his first run for the stable back in October then he must be in with a great chance. He was behind Shantou Village who is a high class animal, so on that basis he should give the favourite something to think about in receipt of weight.

Aminabad and Deadly Approach both look up against it on these terms but have both won decent enough races this season. If either of the top two don’t turn up then preference would be for the former, as his beating of Two Taffs has worked out well with that one going on to run a decent race at the festival.

On paper this looks like a really good race with some well handicapped horses. The form of Copain De Classe’s recent victories could not look any more appealing. He beat Shantou Rock comfortably who has since gone on to win by huge margins. Paul Nicholls’ charge then got the better of Azzuri last time who is rated 132 and was third in a Grade 1 at Aintree last year. The trainer is in superb form and I will be disappointed if Copain De Classe isn’t in with a chance jumping the last.

Poker School has racked up three wins this season but hasn’t been seen since December. A winner over hurdles and fences towards the end of last year, a mark of 130 could be lenient given that he is clearly improving and his last chase win has been given a huge form boost with the third winning four on the bounce since then, including a Grade 1 at Aintree.

Red Tornado won five in a row last season but his mark suffered as a result, but he looked to be finding his feet again last time at Taunton and clearly likes this time of year. Lithic struggled in a Grade 3 last time and this mark looks high enough while Silverhow is a half brother to Altior, unfortunately he doesn’t have the same level of ability and has a lot to do against some well handicapped opponents.

There are precious few days left until the Cheltenham Festival 2017 and many countdown clocks are ticking down the hours to the Supreme. However exciting the first race may be, there’s also the prospect of four wonderful days of racing and few events can be as fascinating as the Neptune which kicks off the second day’s action.

For the benefit of those who wish for a seasonal update, here’s a form update from what we’ve seen over the season. If any horses in the market are missing below, it is because their trainers have declared them going for other races.

The talk has been dominated in the new year by two horses, Neon Wolf and Finian’s Oscar, arguably the leading British novices over any distance at this moment in time.

Neon Wolf entered the Festival picture and in a big way when he took apart his field in the Rossington Novices’ at Haydock. A well backed 4/5 shot that day, coming into the race unbeaten, he was always prominent and gave his hurdles a great deal of care (and air), and was in front from the home turn. After taking it up three out, he had all but Elgin beaten, and he would put no less than nine lengths between him and that rival. That is serious form in light of the way Elgin won at Kempton over Christmas and his second in the Dovecote on Saturday. Neon Wolf sets a high standard on that performance, and with the trip likely to be no problem the only question one might have would be the ground, although an easy Exeter win would put those questions out of the picture and on form terms he has earned his place.

Worryingly for his backers, it is harder to say the same about Finian’s Oscar. One of the leading lights of Colin Tizzard’s yard, he was already being well talked about before even setting foot under rules but there had never been any doubt about how highly he was regarded before his debut at Hereford. That regard was well held, as he cruised through the race before leaving previous winner Acting Lass for dead and ending up 7 lengths clear. The runner up, previously an eleven length winner, was in turn 10 lengths clear of Western Climate, who has since gone onto be a winner at Hereford too and even the fourth Vinnie Lewis ended up running second.

However, his form has taken knocks since then. Acting Lass was beaten 10 lengths at Ascot on his first start since and from the Tolworth, second Capitaine was well behind Elgin in the Dovecote, with Global Stage, the only other runner since, proving disappointing twice since.

Connections wisely managed to take £13,000 for what was a doss at Exeter last time out, although it leaves him without much in the way of form that stands up to the closest scrutiny which many have noticed.

The Irish have a long and proud history in this race and Bacardys looks a leading challenger. Third behind Ballyandy in the Champion Bumper, he took the spoils at Aintree and did well to be third at Punchestown given that the first two were fresher than he was by a good deal. Over hurdles he has progressed steadily, although there’s a good argument for thinking that he ought to be unbeaten in three. He could well have won on his debut had he managed to stay up but he hinted at more distance being better when he won at Leopardstown over Christmas over 2 miles, benefitting from a forceful ride and showing a good attitude.

It was to be in the Deloitte, however, where he would show the benefit of even the slightest step up in trip. In what was a well-run race from the start in reasonably testing ground, he sat off the lead and was behind most of the main contenders turning in, but he passed all but two before the last and found enough to reel in Bunk Off Early. On a line through Brelade (second in the Future Champions at Christmas) that form stands up well and Bunk off Early had won his maiden over hurdles by 5½ lengths at Christmas to a next time out winner. The step up in trip ought to do him the world of good and he has a leading chance on form.

Messiere Des Obeaux also falls into this category. Weak and immature when seventh in the Fred Winer last year, he has not looked back since winning a Bangor handicap by 10 lengths off 128 and then getting the better of Ballyandy (also entered here, and Supreme) by half a length giving 7lbs in the Winter Novices’ Hurdle. After that he went to the Challow where he was even more impressive in beating the previous six length winner Baltazar D’Allier by two lengths with Ami Desbois, a previous Grade 2 second and a comfortable winner of 137 since, well held in third a further four lengths back.

He was beaten in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon in February, a result which disappointed many. However, he was giving 8lbs to the Keeper Hill, whom he pushed to within a neck. Keeper Hill was unbeaten in two before, having won by a total of nine and a half lengths, giving weight away each time, and the stop-start pace of that race did not suit. It is to be hoped that scenario doesn’t come up again for him – he clearly liked an end to end gallop through the season.

Ballyandy, the winner of last year’s Champion Bumper, may still come here with his target up in the air. His novice hurdling season had been frustrating until his Betfair Hurdle win, where he got the better of Movewiththetimes in a gutsy battle to the line. The pair sprinted quickly clear of good solid yardsticks in Clyne (143) and Song Light (133).

However, they went off first and second favourite, with the betting public enamoured by marks of 135 and 136, and as far as handicap hurdles go, it was an advantageous situation for them. Both may also have improved for the experience too, but they could well have been flattered and Ballyandy would be here 7lbs wrong with Messiere Des Obeaux. 2 miles also looks more likely a target for them.

If Invitation Only were to make it here after supposed problems, he would be potentially interesting although a line through Barra (who he beat by 2 and a half lengths), beaten eight and a half lengths by Barcardys in the Deloitte.

Beyond Conceit is interesting. High class on the flat, he made a pretty spectacular debut over hurdles at Newbury when he won by 10 lengths, always going well just off the pace and going to the front on the bridle and not letting some clumsy jumps prevent him from a facile success. Shantou Rock, second that day, won a maiden hurdle at Ludlow at 1/4 and was then beaten at 1/3 the time after. He’s now rated 132, which would have Beyond Conceit running to a mark of 142 on his hurdling debut.

He we then sent to Ascot for a novice hurdle over three furlongs further, when he jumped better although pulled hard early settled at the back in a race where not much separated the whole field. This became a protracted battle with Beyond Conceit one of the first off the bridle, but he found plenty despite a poor jump at the second last when it was most needed, and he did jump the last better.

Beyond Conceit had a neck to spare at the end, but the form reads very well. Acting Lass (mentioned earlier in this preview) was beaten 10 lengths, whilst the close second Topofthegame had previously finished fourth in the course and distance trial for this, having given weight to the second and third there (3 and 7lbs respectably). The third De Dollar Man was a previous winner at Ayr too, which actually makes this one of the strongest pieces of form held by an English novice. Beyond Conceit is of potential interest if being able to restrain himself early, although he too will be stepping up in trip to the tune of two furlongs.

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There are 18 days and it’s just around the corner. Cheltenham 2017 is within touching distance and whilst the picture for so many races continues to changes, we are in final touches territory with today’s meeting at Kempton, the last proper trials for the mecca in many people’s minds, and a decent meeting at Fairyhouse too.

I would be remiss to start without talking about Thistlecrack, whose absence from the Cheltenham Gold Cup was another hard hit to a festival that has lost more star horses than can be counted on both hands. Whether with or against, the absence of his is arguably more of a blow to the meeting than any other given how much of the public’s imagination he had captured in a dizzying streak to the top of both hurdling and chasing.

The magnanimous response of his owners John and Heather Snook, and the Tizzards, after what must be a crushing piece of news is a credit to all, and their brave campaigning is to be applauded in a season when others have taken less easy routes too. A tear to the tendon for a nine year is old is obviously a serious blow, but that Tizzard feels he will have the horse back by December is encouraging and he’s a late bloomer so hopefully he can race once again. It’s to be hoped that luck is kinder to them for the rest of the season.

Onto matters at Kempton, where the last few Cheltenham runners (most likely) are put through their paces and the juvenile rankings will once again move about with the Adonis at 1.50.

There are a number of decent horses, a couple of notable interest, but anything but a smooth success for Charli Parcs would be more of a disappointment than a shock. Highly rated after a debut success at Engihen, he was well supported for his debut over course and distance but even the most optimistic observer could not have expected the stunning show that he put on in smashing Masterblueeyes by eight lengths.

It was eight lengths at the end that day but Noel Fehily had more if he wanted under the locker and he was giving weight to Alan King’s consistent benchmark, a wide margin winner at Ludlow who is now rated 133. Nicky Henderson, as skilled as any when handling such horses, recently told Stan James that:

“I think Charli is a very high-class horse and I would be pushed to say he is as good as Altior because HE is as good as it gets but I’d certainly say (at their novice stage) Charli definitely as good as Buveur D’air, yes. “

Buveur D’Air was third in the Supreme last year without the considerable benefit of 8lbs in weight on his side and is now favourite for the Champion Hurdle having won all of his starts since, so the place this four-year-old occupies in affections at Seven Barrows is high indeed. If he was to repeat his first effort, it goes without saying he would take a power of beating. In the long run he would have to be of serious interest for either the Supreme or the Triumph, and in the longer run one might even consider him a Champion Hurdle horse for next year if all goes well – it has happened to similar stablemates to whom he has been compared.

The margin between him and Evening Hush, who couldn’t lay a glove on Defi De Seuil at Chepstow in the Finale Juvenile Hurdle, is likely to be very illuminating for form readers here, especially given that the last time Evan Williams’ charge had managed to get her hands on good ground, she won an Aintree Listed Hurdle by no less than 21 lengths. A slick jumper with no shortage of an engine, she can be a big threat.

Alan King also runs Fidux, who was fourth when stepped up to Listed level at Musselburgh. He would need to improve on that form to get involved here and of more interest is Ibleo. Veneita Williams’ son of Dick Turpin had two runs in France, but the only one of those worth checking out properly would be his win over Don Bersy on the second of two starts at Compiegne.

After being outsped on his debut, he found plenty to get the better of Don Bersy in a good finish in a three runner race, and the form of that has been boosted no end with Don Bersy winning three races including the Victor Ludorum in the UK. It remains to be seen how ready he is on this UK debut but he would have realistic form claims.

East Indies and Flying Tiger would appear exposed on all known form and the same comments would apply to Templier too on the basis of his last run. Percy Street is surely better than he was able to show last time when beaten at 1/7 but he will need to be if he’s to threaten his stablemate. Bedrock is thrown in at the deep end for his hurdling debut.

Paul Nicholls is probably going to win the trainers; title because of placements like that of Frodon, who has a big chance of picking the best part of £20,000 (£18,224 to be exact) with victory in the Pendil (2.25). The winner of the December Gold Cup bounced back to form at Musselburgh last time and he wouldn’t need to be at his best here on the official ratings with only Charmix and Gold Present a threat in a four runner field.

In the Dovecote (3.00) form watchers are likely to have their notebooks open once again, especially with a mind to the Neptune too. That’s because the form of two top contenders here links closely to the first and second favourites for the Neptune, in the shape of Capitaine (Finian’s Oscar) and Elgin (Neon Wolf).

Capitaine was best of the rest when Finian’s Oscar turned on the afterburners were turned on by the current Neptune favourite in the Tolworth. He was a good and clear second that day, although the form (outside the top two) appears weak for the level. Keen early, he was never allowed to stride on fully that day and also appeared to lose out in the stamina stakes late on. Neither should be an issue here on good ground and a flat track which will suit; the only times he’s been beaten over hurdles the ground has been soft.

Captain Forez, a stamp of a five-year-old who screams ‘future chaser’, was behind Capitaine last time on the same terms and might want a stiffer test.

Neon Wolf fans will be very keen to see Elgin, himself a winner of the novice hurdle that kicks off the Christmas meeting here, when he knuckled down hard to get the better of smart flat horse Mohayed. He had more to spare over him when he was second, albeit slammed, by Neon Wolf, and Mohayed has since won easily at Taunton to underline the feeling that is very solid form. It’s also worth nothing he tried to give 3lbs to Neon Wolf at Haydock, a task that would be too much for many novice hurdlers.

River Wylde’s connections have had a fair few decent horses this season and this six year old looks to be one of them following his second very impressive win hurdling at Ludlow. He was expected to there, although he made carrying a double penalty look like nothing there that day and is probably better than his official mark of 135 by a good margin.

Peter The Mayo Man was well fancied to take the Scottish Trial for the Supreme when he tried to give 3lbs to Lough Derg Spirit, who himself was well beaten by Capitaine and Captain Forez the time before. He’s respected on the back of three wide margin wins before that but he might have reached the limit of his improvement.

Mister Universum made a decent enough debut hurdling behind a very smart winner although the form of that Newbury fourth has not held up well apart from for the impressive winner. Ronnie Baird is hard to give a chance to after finishing 43 lengths behind Finian’s Oscar at Exeter a fortnight ago, and Bazooka as well could be added into that list in 117.

The Betbright Chase (3.35) is a difficult puzzle to unlock. Double Shuffle ended a run of disappointments with an impressive win in a valuable contest at Christmas here and he ought to take the beating if he repeats that effort, although one cannot be certain about that being the case.

Irish Saint is well handicapped on his novice form including a wide margin Pendil win here but nothing he has done since suggests that he is certain to find enough here and weak finishes are a worry for him here.

Three Musketeers was back to something like his best when he won at Market Rasen in first time cheekpiece at Market Rasen. The form of that event is strong through forth Blakemount, beaten a mile, and he gave 7lbs to the runner up, so a repeat of that form over a trip and track which should end up being absolutely perfect for him makes him of serious interest and the handicapper has only given him a 2lbs rise for that.

A year ago Theatre Guide thrashed opening Batsman by 10 lengths off a mark of 139 in a stunning display and both of them return here. He’s now rated 153, borderline graded class, but two starts ago he got the better of Perfect Candidate by a nose at Cheltenham, form that was boosted when Perfect Candidate went and bolted up in a well contested Veterans Chase at Exeter and he now goes for the Grand National. Theatre Guide will find this far better than the Welsh National and can make a good defence of his title bid.

Viva Steve was really impressive at Ayr on his debut but didn’t run to the same form in the Classic Chase next time. It remains to be seen if the handicapper has his measure but perhaps for the for the

Aso’s good run came to an end on trials day at Cheltenham and maybe he wants softer ground than this (or maybe not! – JP), whilst Opening Batsman is very well handicapped on his form last year, enough that he’s a threat still. Ballykan may be exposed off 140 and Triolo D’Aelene doesn’t look the horse of old. Annacotty wants a different course and softer ground and the same could be said about Pilgrims Bay. Cocktails at Dawn is well weighted if he shows the form he did in October 2016 when he won well at Chepstow. Three miles around here on paper, should suit.

At Fairyhouse, the Irish juveniles battle it out once again in the Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle. The market has this as being between Dinaria Des Obeaux, who made a shocking error two out in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown that exaggerated the margin of her defeat. She will enjoy this ground more than Landofhopeandglory, who gave Bapaume weight when splitting him and Mega Fortune, form that looks strong now, so might have the better of the two today.

She holds Ex Patriot and Mengli Khan on that form (along with Sword Fighter) and Prospectus needs to have improved a lot from his latest win here, although he was impressive here.

The Bobbyjo (3.30) is a race often watched closely for National clues and that should be no different with the Thyestes form also getting a good workout. Baie Des Isles was fourth in last year’s renewal before then finishing sixth in the Irish National, fantastic efforts for a five year old. Now six, he got a fine ride from Katie Walsh to the the National trial at Punchestown when many others weren’t on the ball (including Roi Des France) but he has gone up only 5lbs for that, which is generous, and he can take the beating once again.

Pleasant Company made a fine reappearance when he was fourth in the Thyestes, ahead of Wounded Warrior, and he should take the beating off the same mark today; Of the others Roi de Frances and Thunder and Roses would be the best each/way bets, both of whom being confirmed mudlarks.

Speaking of mudlarks, the Eider Chase (2.45) at Newcastle is probably not going to be watching for the faint-hearted. The GoingStick of 3.8 for Newcastle’s chase course, the lowest (softest) for 4 years, is ominous before the wind and rain tomorrow to beat. Heavy sloggers are the order of the day and Shotgun Paddy, second in the race last year to the absent Rocking Blues, has some of the best form here especially in the shape of his third in the Classic Chase. The winner looks a National contender and the second Goodtoknow since trashed Mountainous at Hereford, so his claims are obvious and this is his lowest mark for some time.

Mystree was fourth last year and then an impressive winner on his return at Haydock, so it is a mystery (get it?) as to how he was so disappointing last time at Plumpton in the Sussex National. If he’s at his best then he ought to be capable of running a big race.

Mountainous has worked back to form whilst dropping in the handicap and he needs respecting here – he’s 1lbs higher than when he last won the Welsh National, and with a 7lbs claim of Richard Patrick he can go well. One of few to have dealt with conditions like this, he may be involved through a process of elimination.

Also of interest is Knockanrawley, who was a fine fifth in the Classic Chase but he could bounce – that was his first run after more than a year off. Russe Blanc, a previous Classic Chase winner is also nicely weighted although whether he’s come to form quickly enough remains to be seen. This ground could do for Out Sam.

On Sunday Naas has a strong card where Any Second Now, the winner of the Moscow Flyer when he downed Crack Mome in very taking style, goes for a hat-trick in the Grade 2 Novice. The ground there might well suit him more than going for the Supreme and he could well beat Joey Sasa, Forge Meadow and Labaik if he consents to run. If he’s a backable price, he proabably represents a bet.

In the National Spirit at Fontwell (3.00), Lil Rockfeller makes appeal after a poor Cheltenham run in the Cleeve which can be excused, although in a fascinating race there are plenty to watch. L’Ami Serge has finished weakly the last twice but this ground might be better for him, and Le Rocher has made sterling steps since a long absence too. Different Gravey, back to hurdles, also catches the eye.

Don’t forget you can hear (and see!) more of Will on our Cheltenham Preview on Wednesday 1 March – REGISTER NOW.

Back in November long standing Community Member Geoff Handley put together “Ten exciting jumpers to follow for the season”. We thought it was a good time to have a review and see how they’ve got on.

It turns out they’ve performed rather well. In fact, if you’d backed them all to 2 point win stakes you’d currently be showing a profit of 31.66 points and would have enjoyed winners at 7/1 (20/1 available), 11/2, 5/1, 7/2, 11/4,11/4, 2/1,2/1 1/3 and Geoff is hopeful there are more to come.

Updates on each horse can be found under the original entry for each horse below. JP

1. Call To Order : Jonjo O’Neill

The NH season stepped up another gear with a cracking Saturday card at Chepstow a few weeks ago.The opening race on the card, a “National Hunt” Novice Hurdle looked a particularly decent event ( the Supreme winner Alitor won this event last year ) and the form should stand up, the first three in this event are all worth following from powerful yards, Geordie De Champs /Rebecca Curtis, Casper King/ Phillip Hobbs and Capeland/Paul Nicholls

However the one I took out of this event was Call To Order who finished sixth of the eleven runners.Travelled really well in midfield at the Welsh track on his seasonal debut and was not that fluent at a couple of flights in the home straight basically finished him off and then handled considerately to come home in his own time for Aidan Coleman.

Came back to Chepstow on October 25th, was very well backed and travelled well for along way again until a slight mistake 2 out and finished third.

Call To Order is now qualified for Handicaps and is worth keeping an eye on.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Call To Order has ran twice since both at Cheltenham,stepped up in trip to 2m 5f ran a respectable race to be third at 11/1 in his first handicap off a mark of 120. Last time out running off the same mark, stepped up to 3m in a Class 2 handicap, he led all the way and ran on strongly at odds of 11/2He was taken out of a race a few weeks ago when morning fav with the going too soft, so he is obviously one to watch out for given better going,Call To Order has plenty of improvement in him and has an entry at Haydock on Saturday in the Pertemps Qualifier ( runs off a 7lb higher mark ) so Jonjo could be targeting this race at the Festival and the yard has a decent record in getting one right for a Cheltenham handicap.
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2. Twenty Eight Guns : Michael Scudamore

Twenty Eight Guns is a maiden hurdler and she made her chasing debut in a Novice Handicap Chase at Hexham off a mark of 105 and started the 7/2 joint fav. However her running virtually went unnoticed as this was the race that Henry Brooke took a nasty fall at the 2nd on Old Guard and receiving nasty injuries but thankfully he is on the mend and best wishes to him, we can all criticise jockey’s at times but it just shows how tough a career it can be and fair play to them.

During the race itself, Twenty Eight Guns was still travelling OK when making an almighty blunder three out, the open ditch, virtually coming to a halt, jockey Adam Wedge got her going again and was running on at the end to finish fourth.

She stays further than this 2 1/2 mile event and is one to look out for in a similar event especially on soft/heavy going.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Twenty Eight Guns has gone on to win 3 races and still don’t know how she got beat at Ffos Las that would have made it four in a row

She won first at Ffos Las, well backed from 5/1 down to 2/1, she stayed on well to beat Royal Salute, who has won twice and gives the form a solid look about it. (OR 99)Returned back to the same course, jumping well she was clear at the last only to slightly idle near the line and got headed on the post ( touched 1/50 in running ) (OR 105)Michael Scudamore then sent her to Bangor-On-Dee just before Christmas, loved the soft conditions and never really looked like being beaten, easily holding off Coole Charmer and looking a big improver ( OR109 )On her final race she travelled to Wincanton to gain her third success winning easily again despite a rise of 11 lb in the weights ( OR 120 )She has numerous engagements this weekend, is tough and is improving but she is now racing off 130 ( a rise of 31 lbs ) and life won’t be easy anymore.1 (2/1)
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3. Our Kaempfer : Charlie Longsdon

Last season was so frustrating for Our Kaempfer his connections and the many punters who supported him. Placed at Chepstow & Aintree he rounded off the season finishing 5th of 24 in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival.Patiently ridden as usual he was travelling well and was running on up the hill to finish just out of the places with all those each way bets biting the dust, given too much to do, he needs to be ridden further up with pace.

Our Kaempfer made his chasing debut at Chepstow in a hot looking Novice, patiently ridden as usual, a mistake 5 out didn’t help but he still ran well to finish second, has the size to make a decent chaser but if that doesn’t work out he can still win a valuable handicap hurdle as is still on a workable mark. Looking forward to seeing how his season works out and is well thought of at Charlie’s Oxfordshire yard.

Update as at 16 Feb:

At last Our Kaempfer put it all together on his last appearance at Kempton over 3m winning a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 138 at 5/1, Sam Twiston-Davies riding for the first time.This followed 3 defeats, beaten in a match, 3rd of 5 at Newbury and then unseated early on at Wetherby on his first venture into handicaps, ( class 1 ) Still qualified for Novices, Our Kaempfer has an entry at Ascot on Saturday and two entries at Cheltenham. Charlie Longsdon clearly has a smart handicapper in the making.

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4. No No Mac : Charlie Longsdon

It was great to see Hereford back in action again, had staged Point To Point and Arab Racing in the interim but had not seen NH racing since December 2012 and a big crowd turned up on the day for a decent card.

No No Mac was going for a hat-trick in a decent Class 3 Handicap Chase after four months off, tried to make all with Richard Johnson on board and probably went off too quick before not surprisingly weakening to finish third

Now racing off a mark of 134, this smallish gelding will be all the better for his seasonal debut and should take some stopping next time, though whether he can defy another rise in the weights is open to debate.

Update as at 16 Feb:

No No Mac travelled up to Kelso in Novemberfrom his Oxfordshire yard along with stable mate, the well fancied Bestwork, both ran very disappointingly, No No Mac was always struggling and never got in the race.Was subsequently sold to Ayrshire trainer Ian Duncan on the advivce of one of Charlie’s jockey’s Graham Watters and was not seen until yesterday at the trainers local course Ayr.Available at 20/1 in the morning, it was available at 12/1 and backed down to 7/1 for this class 3 handicap ( still the outsider ). Made a successful stable debut after a 101-day break without the blinkers. The 8yo looked in trouble turning for home, but he rallied bravely and his proven stamina for further came into play from two out. He’s now 3-7 over fences and connections have a very useful acquisition on their hands.0
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5. Monbeg River : Martin Todhunter

Looks a ready made winner judged on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, stayed on well at the North Yorkshire venue to finish runner up to Owen Na View and should come on a bundle for the run . A fast run 2m should be ideal and remains with plenty of potential.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Monbeg River has still not won in his 3 starts since but I’m sure his turn is not far away.5th of 9 in a very competit.ive race at Cheltenham over 2m , he was then sent to Aintree over 2m 4f, Starting at 10/1, he was travelling really well along with Old Grangewood when both of them were brought down 4 out, the previous mentioned has won both races since for Dan SkeltonOn his last run again Monbeg River ran well on going softer than he likes finishing 3rd, the trip just stretching his stamina at Wetherby.He is weighted to win soon off 129 and Im sure the trainer Martin Todhunter is lining him up for a handicap at Aintree where conditions will be far more suitable.

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6. Tjongejonge : Charlie Longsdon

Tongejonge first came to my attention at the stable’s Open Day which I have attended for the last few years,

He was one of the few to school on the morning and he certainly impressed me and I knew some of the stable lads were keen on him. A dual winner in France last year, he made his debut at Cheltenham last November in an Intermediate Handicap Hurdle, 7/1 in the betting and with Richard Johnson aboard, he was going well in the lead when appearing to lose his action 3 out and was quickly pulled up.He was fine afterwards but subsequently ran three more times but was rather disappointing.

Hopefully that can be put down to experience and Tjongejonge will go novice chasing this Autumn.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Tjonejonge made his UK chasing debut in a handicap at Market Rasen, well backed from 5/1 down to 11/4, the money proved well founded as he gained an easy success.made a few mistakes but it was a good performance for a 5yo.Stepped up considerably in class he cut no ice in a class 3 Handicap.Last time he again was backed all day from 20/1 to 12/1 and ran much better in a Novices Handicap at Leicester to finish fourth to suggest he can find another race very soon.No entries.
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7. Drop Out Joe : Charlie Longsdon

He was another to school at the Open day, this smart handicap chaser went on to win tat Chepstow, the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton and finally the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter ( two from two at the Midlands track ) off a mark of 144.The decent ground certainly helped him but the only problem now is that his Open Rating will shoot up and competing in some handicaps won’t be an option, however his ultimate aim this season is the Grand National and his jumping should hold good over the unique Aintree fences.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Still not run but still has a Grand National entry, allocated 10/10 in the weights and number 25 so would get a run, this has been his target and is 100/1, hopefully Charlie can get a prep run in.8. Cosmeapolitan : Alan King

Trained by Alan King at Barbury Castle high up on the Marlborough Downs. It’s a marvellous place to train racehorses and there is also a Point To Point Course; an excellent racecourse, a natural amphitheatre for watching all the action and miles away from the main road but if you go wrap up well as it can be freezing up there, windy and wet.

Cosmeapolitan has only run on the flat but this three year old gelding is a fine prospect for juvenile hurdles. Won at Newbury for the first time when stepped up in trip to 12f for the first time in the Ladies Derby Handicap easily beating older rivals and powering clear to win by 10 lengths.Then went to Haydock where he was beaten by The Graduate trained by Andrew Balding ( another who would make a cracking hurdler ) this was over 14f on much softer going.Finished the season at Newmarket and ran much better than his position would suggest finishing 9th but coming from off the pace to lead until weakening.

He also has the option of returning to the flat next season as a four year old and looks a good prospect.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Only ran the once since in NH ( finished 2nd on A/W ) when winning easily at Newbury at odds of 1/3, this what Alan King stated after the race: “Will be a lot sharper next time and I don’t care how much schooling you do they learn so much first time. He couldn’t have done any better considering that mistake and he got quite tired as the ground was dead enough – he might want it wetter or better. He was as nice as any of my juveniles on the Flat and is very progressive.”Has a Triumph Hurdle entry and is 25/1.

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9. Three Musketeers : Dan Skelton

Came to my attention as one to follow when I saw him win at Warwick last year ( pictured ) thats always a useful Novice Hurdle and then finished the season with a very decent third in a hot Novice’s at Aintree and looking all over a chaser in the making.

Last season, he did switch to chasing, winning well at Newbury but disappointing at Cheltenham in January ( the yard weren’t firing at the time ) His final outing saw him run in the JLT Novices Chase at the Cheltenham Festival finishing a very good fourth but very much giving the impression that a step up to 3 miles will be in his favour.

I was at Aintree when it ran last week in the Old Roan Chase, couldn’t believe it started fav as the trainer Dan Skelton said he would need the run and needed 3m, the shorter distance was to run the ‘freshness’ out of him, jumped boldly at Aintree but weakened to be sixth of the seven runners, Can win a decent chase over 3m.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Disappointed at Newbury when unseating rider at Newbury when beaten at the time but stepped up on that form when winning easily at Market Rasen. An increase in trip certainly helped as did the softer going, cheekpieces were applied. Hopefully Three Musketeers can now go on improving and Im sure it will be even better over 3m, there is a good handicap in him, has an entry on Feb 25th in the Betbright at Kempton and that should be ideal.ur
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10. Two Taffs : Dan Skelton

Hardly unexposed but looks the type to win a decent race for this shrewd stable.

Looked a smart hurdler when winning at Ayr at the end of the season and rewarding punters who had followed him all season having been placed twice at Kempton and fourth at Sundown in a well contested 18 runner Novices Handicap Hurdle. ( started 7/1 fav )

A facile winner of a novice hurdle at Carlisle last week, Two Taffs looks a smart hurdler in the making and also has the size to make a chaser longer term.

Update as at 16 Feb:

Still not won in four subsequent starts.7th in a very hot handicap hurdle at Haydock, travelled strongly but weakened, not sure why it ran on such heavy goingThen made a hugely eye catching chasing debut when second behind Poker School at the big Boxing Day meeting at KemptonVery disappointing next time out when beaten at 1/6 at Catterick, however the yard’s runners were not performing that well at the time,( said to have have had flu jabs )Much better last time out when third at Warwick in the Kingmaker, slightly stopped in his track on the home turn he ran respectably back down in tripDon’t give up on Two Taffs, Im sure there is a decent Novice Chase in him over 2m 4f on good going.
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The early part of 2017 doesn’t see too much on the racing calendar, in fact, the first quarter will only see Cheltenham Festival across the third week in March. However, from April onwards things start to heat up and the season kicks in properly.

The four day event at Cheltenham starts on Tuesday 14March this year and promises to be four days of atmosphere and action that will really set the season in motion. The Champion Hurdle is the key feature race on the Tuesday but things will only intensify from there. Wednesday sees the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Thursday is the host day for the World Hurdle but Friday is the day we’re all looking forward to.

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is the jewel in the event’s crown and promises to cap off four days of huge races and novice events that’ll keep the bookmakers right on their toes. The bookies on the day will no doubt offer the best odds based on insight but the likes of William Hill and Paddy Power will keep up with them every step of the way – Cheltenham is usually a hive of Irish breeders showing their class; Paddy Power is without doubt the online authority.

Naturally, Cheltenham is succeeded by Aintree’s biggest calendar event: The Grand National. Three days of Melling Chase, Ladies Day and the main event – who can resist a flutter on the National? Ideally, you’ll want to check the papers in the week leading up to the event but the best odds are always found on the day through the likes of Coral and Ladbrokes: the high street bookies.

There’s plenty to keep an eye on post April including 7 May, 2,000 Guineas, Royal Ascot starting 20 June 20 and Glorious Goodwood from the 1 August. By the time September rocks around, we’re looking at St Ledger (13 Sept onwards) and the Ayr Gold Cup (21 Sept onwards) but how do you find the best odds on an event so far away?

Looking around the high street or checking the best horse racing betting sites are ways to find the odds you want. Comparing odds is the only way to get the best deal and will give the odds you want in a timeframe that can’t be beaten.

Undoubtedly, bookmakers who specialise in horse racing will give the best odds based on their superior insight but there’s no guarantee that it’ll be the strongest price on the day. According to the websites that compare the best horse racing betting sites, 888Sport and Paddy Power have a superb offering and are without doubt the best rated online. You can’t argue with the opinion of the customers – they’re always right after all.

Had his season curtailed by injury following his win at Plumpton. Mr Moore reports he has done exceptionally well over the summer carrying more condition than last year. Likely to prove best on good to soft or softer ground, around right-handed tracks. Jumps for fun, goes well fresh, while the Tingle Creek at Sandown Park is his pre-Christmas target.

Irish-Point winner that starts the season a maiden over hurdles. Best run came when third over two and half-miles at Punchestown in April. Mr Henderson has been pleased with his development over the summer. Considered the type to go well fresh and appreciate galloping tracks. Two and half-miles and further on good or better ground should see him off the mark.

Two promising runs over hurdles in 2016 since arriving from France. A scopey horse with potential, he will make a decent chaser one day. However, hurdles will be the order of the day and he has the option of novice or handicap hurdle races. A full-brother to Bouvreuil, he will stay up to two and a half-miles.

Second in an Irish-Point Orchard Thieves cost £115,000 at Cheltenham’s Sales in March 2016. The thirdfrom that race won a Bumper at Hexham while the fourth home won an Irish-Point.Whilst a novice hurdle career beckons, he may run in a Bumper. Should prove effective over two and a half-mile and upwards on good to soft or softer. Trainer has been pleased with his progress over the summer.

To give you the flavour of the type of content our Community Members can access, I’m making today’s preview of Punchestown from Will Kedjanyi available to all. Enjoy! JP

After a successful first day, with a cracking ride from Danny Mullins helping Felix Yonger get over the line, we approach day 2 of Punchestown in the driving seat with a card that has considerably more betting shape. At the time of writing things are dry over County Kildare, with suits the fancies for tomorrow’s racing all proven on a sound surface.

I was very keen on Identity Theft being well overpriced at Fairyhouse when he attempted to bounce back from a dreadful showing in the Delotitte when obvious wrong, and he ran a fine race before being readily outsped by Sempre Medici after the last. The step back upto today’s trip, over which he won his maiden in such taking style, should be right up his street and if improving for his first run for two months, then he should take the beating in the Louis Fitzgerald Hotel Hurdle (4.25).

Willie Mullins already has three Grade 1 winners to his name and will be much fancied to make it four with Shaneshill in the Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle (4.55). The Supreme second coasted home when taking advantage of a weak Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, and is now being stepped upto 3 miles for the first time. He holds a strong chance, but is unproven at the trip and looked to be outstayed, beaten fair and square, when meeting No More Heroes in December at Navan. Gordon Elliott’s charge makes more appeal of the two at the prices, with plenty of time to recover from what would have been a hard race at the Festival in the Albert Bartlett when third to Martello Tower. He should go well, but the value in the race may well be Thistlecrack, who looked a different horse for three miles when landing the Sefton at Aintree last time and could possibly have more improvement in him still.

He was going tooth and nail before being left infront by Alpha Des Obeaux at the least, and while the result was not confirmed by any stretch of the imagination, the distance he had between him and the solid yardstick Vyta du Roc helps to underline the form of what had looks at least an upto standard renewal. On just his second start over this trip, he is well worth chancing for a big run.

Cheltenham Festival winner Killtuagh Vic has already done us a fine service by winning the Martin Pipe, and he should thrive at this new trip, so has to be respected here with his third behind Outlander at Leopardstown looking excellent after Martello Tower’s Albert Bartlett victory. Fletchers Flyer was just beaten by Definitely Red when last seen in February, but lost no cast in that defeat and is one of a few outsiders who can get in the shakeup here today.

The Bibby Services Punchestown Gold Cup (5.30) is a fascinating and well upto strength renewal, with the first two from the Cheltenham Gold Cup meeting in a rematch and facing one of the most exciting chasers around.

Willie Mullins Djakadam, a fine second at Cheltenham, holds an obvious form chance of taking the big prize today, but may find that conditions on this occasions suit Gold Cup third Road to Riches more, and the Noel Meade horse can turn the form around today.

At Cheltenham the two were the only horses within hailing distance, and Road to Riches, having been in the firing line all the way round, just folded late up the hill as Djakadam – held out of the firing line – stayed on late to grab the runner up spot. The two should be closely matched again today, but around this sharper track, on better ground, and crucially, over 1 furlong less, it’s not impossible that Road to Riches can turn the tables today.

The big form threat is Don Cossack, who was almost unbelievably impressive when landing the Melling Chase at Aintree, and compensating for his Ryanair third by beating Cue Card to the tune of 26 lengths. He looked like a horse that would stay then – and if doing so today, will be a major player.

However the one horse I just can’t be leaving is Ballynagour, who came so close to landing us a massive pot at Aintree when beaten just a head by Silvinaco Conti in the Aintree Bowl. He may well have won there if he’d met the cross fence correctly, and the form looks top class here.

Some will put forward the argument that he is best fresh, but he ran fine races at Cheltenham, Aintree and then here last year and there should be no reason that he can’t go at least as well again. Take the 9/1 with Bet365, who pay ¼ the odds for three places each/way.

In the Guinness Handicap Chase (6.40), if the ground stays good, then there’s nothing to stop a big run from Rathlin, who ran a fine race in the Topham at Aintree last time. That was his first run on good ground since finishing a creditable fifth in the Melling Chase last year at Aintree, and he now gets his favoured conditions again, effectively now 5lbs lower thanks to Ger Fox’s claim in the saddle compared to last time.

Gigginstown’s first colours are carried by Bright New Dawn, who may get his favoured conditions as well regarding ground and who is dangerously well treated based on form from just earlier this season.

Advice

1 pt win Identity Theft, 4.25 Punchestown (2/1 general)

1 pt each/way Thistlecrack, 4.55 Punchestown (7/1 Bet365)

1 pt win Road to Riches, 5.30 Punchestown (4/1 general)

1 pt each/way Ballynagour, 5.30 Punchestown (9/1 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Rathlin, 6.40 Punchestown (11/1 general)

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Scottish National winner Godsmejudge The greatest horse race is just a week away. The Grand National was first run in 1839, and founded by William Lynn the proprietor of Waterloo Hotel. He leased land in Aintree from the 2nd Earl of Sefton, and the National was born. In the 1840’s Lynn’s health took a turn for the worse and a member of his syndicate, Edward Topham, took over the lease and with it control of the race. The Topham family bought the course outright a century later. In the mid-1950’s Vincent O’Brien dominated the event, saddling the winner in 53, 54 and 1955. A year later Devon Loch famously jumped an invisible object halfway up the run-in with the race at his mercy. The Queen Mother’s horse sank to his stomach and was unable to complete the race leaving E.S.B. to claim the coveted prize. In 1967 Foinavon caused a huge upset when winning the race at a price of 100/1. A loose horse swerved across the front of the 23rd fence, causing interference and a huge pile-up. Foinavon plotted his way through the mayhem, jumping clear of the opposition. Although many jockeys remounted and gave chase, none were able to catch John Buckingham’s mount. In 1984 the infamous obstacle was named in his honour. The 1970’s heralded the arrival of the Grand National’s greatest ever contestant. Red Rum won the race in 1973 and 1974. After finishing runner-up in 75 and 76 he returned to the winner’s enclosure for the third time in 1977 at the age of 12. As the years pass it becomes harder to believe that a horse could be capable of such a feat. His record was truly remarkable and his achievements will never be repeated. The race distance of four miles and three and a half furlongs make the race a unique spectacle, but it is the fences themselves that make the Grand National so special. In recent years those fences have been modified in an attempt to make the race safer for the horses. People have varying views over the merits of such changes, but there is no doubt that the race still captivates the nation like no other. Becher’s Brook, Valentine’s and The Chair remain famous and daunting obstacles, testing the ability of both horse and rider. On the morning of the race, betting shops around the country will be full of punters hoping to pick-out the winner. Numerous systems will be employed in an attempt to find that one special horse from the 40 contenders. The colour of jockey’s silks, a favourite number, or maybe a catchy name will all come under consideration when selections are made. This year’s renewal will see the sport’s greatest jockey saddling-up for the final time, as AP McCoy takes the ride on Shutthefrontdoor. Sure to go off a short-priced favourite, many will place their hopes along with hard cash on the retiring Champ, praying for one final hurrah. Those who like to think they know a little about the sport will look to the form-books and historic race trends, as they attempt to form a list of the most likely contenders. That list may still be a considerable one, and that’s when the ‘lucky pin’ will be deployed. And so, armed with a host of books, websites and other paraphernalia, I will now attempt to narrow the aforementioned field to a mere handful of likely winners of this year’s Aintree showpiece. In recent times the winner has been aged 9, 10 or 11, with a 12 year-old winning back in 2004 and an eight-year-old taking the prize in 2002. It’s pretty clear from this particular trend that both experience and maturity are crucial factors in such a demanding contest. (The race favourite is an eight-year-old that has only run over fences on six occasions.) Only three horses have carried more than 11 stone to victory since 1983, with Neptune Collonges carrying 11-6 to a narrow win in 2012, and AP getting his famous victory off 11-5 aboard Don’t Push It. Of the last 24 winners, none had been off the track for more than 55 days leading up to the race. (Both Shutthefrontdoor and Balthazar King have been off since November.) The age trend alone allows us to disregard half the field, and the weight carrying trend probably points to Rocky Creek being the highest handicapped contender. With these trends in the forefront of our minds we turn to race-form and a ‘gut’ feeling for those horses that are well-handicapped, or maybe still on the upgrade and capable of staying the marathon trip. Rocky Creek is one such horse who appears to be well-handicapped and most certainly improving. He won well off his current mark at Kempton last time and has been trained specifically for the National this year. There has to remain a slight concern over his ability to see-out the trip, after he faded late-on in last year’s race. His trainer has had a winter to remember and Nicholls is adamant that the horse is stronger this time round. Balthazar King has also been trained with this one day in mind. He is a horse that goes well fresh, but the stats suggest his lay-off may play against him. His run last year was terrific, but he came into the National of 2013 off an identical break to this season, and finished down the field behind Auroras Encore. McCoy has hinted that he will retire immediately should he win on board Shutthefrontdoor. The scenes after such a victory are hard to imagine, and it would be a fitting conclusion to an incredible career. The concern has to be that Jonjo’s horse is still a very inexperienced eight-year-old. He’s also had the dreaded long-break and therefore taking account of race trends he has to be rejected. Night In Milan is an interesting contender. He has the right kind of profile and should get his preferred sound surface at Aintree. He’s either won or been placed in 13 of his 18 chase starts, and ran a terrific race at Doncaster in January behind the subsequent RSA fifth If In Doubt. One negative has to be his very limited experience over extended trips, with a third at Catterick his only real run at a marathon distance. But I like him as an each-way proposition, especially at 40’s. The Druids Nephew is tempting but he is yet another eight-year-old, and that means that I should really put a line through his name. He does have a fair amount of experience having run 13 times over fences, and his form behind Sam Winner earlier in the season coupled with his win at the Cheltenham Festival make him hard to dismiss. But if I started bending the rules for this eight-year-old, where would it all end? Godsmejudge is one that I simply cannot ignore. He is the right age and has the right kind of experience having won and been runner-up in two Scottish Nationals. He ran a cracker in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April off his current mark, and a race weight of 10-8 looks perfect. I believe he has an outstanding chance and he is currently priced at 20/1. Al Co is another that comes under consideration. He won the Scottish National last April, though he was in receipt of 5lbs from Godsmejudge. He too looks a thorough stayer and is a ten-year-old running off an attractive race weight. His odds of 33/1 make him a decent each-way proposition. And that just leaves the trainer of last year’s winner. Dr Richard Newland hit the jackpot last April when Pineau De Re won the World’s Greatest Steeplechase, and although I feel the reigning Champ will struggle this time round, his trainer has another live contender in Royale Knight. Tried and tested over marathon trips, he needs a decent surface to be seen at his best. He looks likely to just scrape in at the bottom of the handicap, and if he does he could run a huge race. I’m not sure he quite has the class to win, but he rarely runs a bad race, and will be doing all his best work in the latter stages. At 25/1 it will be hard to resist an each-way punt on this nine-year-old. And there you have it. No need for the ‘lucky pin’ after all. My ‘famous five’ for this year’s Grand National are: GodsmejudgeRocky CreekAl CoRoyale KnightNight In Milan Good luck to all that battle their way through the door of their local betting shop. Be sure to enjoy this most prestigious race as the drama unfolds. It’s sure to be a thriller.

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