Y'all are making me work hard tonight and looking at the 06/00Z package this evening there is an opportunity that Ida may have a future date with Florida and all points south and east. Currently, there is no turf above 20N latitude that can support a tropical system of any degree of depth vertically as is now being hinted in NHC discussions. Assuming Ida survives its trip over land with any kind of structure of its former self and assuming it can stay far enough south long enough for it's journey north and east to be survivable is all conjecture. It be nice to write Ida has a zero chance in hell of surviving. Tonight above 20N latitude it is in fact a zero chance in hell; a few days from now there is a small window of opportunity; stay tune!

Ida is approaching the water again, and it's maintained itself which will likely allow for some restrengthening once back in the Caribbean. It was helped by staying further east and more north than was expected, likely enhanced by it becoming a hurricane before landfall.

It's likely that the forecast track will drift a little east of what it is now. The question then is how much will it convert to Extra/sub tropical when it's in the Gulf. I put more about that in the lounge. In short those along west Florida will want to keep a close watch on what happens with Ida.

I always find it fascinating to watch tropical cyclones attempt to recover after emerging back over water. Ida certainly survived the crossing, but the circulation appears to have broadened somewhat. It's difficult to pinpoint the exact center. Western Cuba and the northeast Yucatan are fortunate Ida did not remain just off the coast. It could have become pretty strong.

Latest satellite IR imagery indicates the mid and upper levels of IDA are in a 50/ 50 split onshore and offshore. Lower level appears to be less than 20 miles from shore. Large thunderstorm complex is situated offshore just to the north and northeast of the center of circulation (COC). Actual center is above the "CoC" notation.

THE NAM AND UKMET KEEP THE LID ON ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...WHILE THE 00Z/06 ECMWF DEVELOPS A
SMALL...INTENSE LOW...AND SENDS IT INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. LIKE THE OLD EC...THE GFS ALSO CARRIES A LOW
NORTHWARD...BUT HOOKS IT MORE SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE
BROADER CIRCULATION OF IDA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL CARRIES A CIRCULATION DISTINCT FROM
IDA...BUT THEN COMBINES THE TWO AND HURLS THE CYCLONE INTO
LOUISIANA. A WEAKER DEPICTION...AS PER THE 12Z/06 GEFS
MEAN...SEEMS TO BE THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WITH THIS SYSTEM. Latest Model Discussion

The setup for Ida is pretty complex, the eastern pacific low is moving north, there's a low in the Bay of Campeche and perhaps a front influence. Ida in the Gulf may be sheared, but there will be a lot of energy out there.

It looks like Ida initially pulled some of the energy away from the East Pac system before making landfall. They now seem to be traveling in tandem and there is that "wall" of mountains between them. There is a lot of different stuff going on over the entire Gulf basin and it remains to be seen which system will become dominate.

Hard to tell looking at only infrared sat, but it does appear as if Ida is improving her structure and the convection is now trying to wrap around the circulation center. Ida may be moving a little east of the forecast track and heading for the area of best possible development south of Cuba. It will be intersting to see what she looks like when we get visible back in the morning. I think she has potential to reach Cat 1 before the conditions turn more hostile and drop her back to TS level. It seems the biggest question is going to be if Ida gets caught up in the frontal boundary or is forced to circle back south. Circling back may be the best result for Florida since she will probably get torn apart over time.

Good that NHC pulled the trigger on upgrading Ida back to TS intensity. Given the intensity of bursting close to what would appear to be the COC, and the very cold tops, I would not be surprised if wind speeds were bumped up to at least 50mph at 12Z. At this time, I am seeing hints of banding north and south of center. Given the smaller ( and obviosly intact ) circulation that Ida has, it should not be too surprising to see fairly quick intensification. The fact that its current forward motion appears to be due north, would seem to help temporarily nullify any light southwesterly shear.

At this hour, my best guess would put a center around 17N and 84W. If correct, than this would place the center as far north and slightly east of the 12Z forecast position. Given the amazing collaboration of just about all models, Ida would be immediately start treking NNW'ward. I cannot see any evidence of such motion yet, and will be most interesting to see if first visible pics will verify a center any further west than current ( 84.0 ). If not, and with a TS already farther north and east of forecast, than the new initialized data would seem at minimum to shift the forecast eastward a little. Even if overalal dynamics seemed unchanged, I am not sure if a somewhat stronger TS would not impact short term guidance at least a little.
Might not be a bad idea for the NOAA peeps, to burn a little of there unspent 2009 hurricane season recon and upper air testing funds, and perhaps juice up a little extra synoptic data for the models to ingest. Though surprising if such were to occur, should Ida strengthen and continue northward - and by 0Z ( 11/8 ) tomorrow still not be any further west than 84 degrees, than we might see some interesting forecast shifts.

Latest satellite imagery indicates IDA is nearly as well organized as it was prior to the first RECON flight several days ago.

And speaking of RECON they are tasked with a flight scheduled to depart in about 2 hours. If my memory is correct. Fix time is 10 AM CST or 16Z. for location: D. 17.2N 84.7W
Currently there is no assigned tasking for the NOAA Aircraft. But that may change with the mid morning Plan of the Day issuance. As it often does.
NOAA was checking one of their planes out yesterday. See NHC Recon page and NOAA HDOBs.

Current center, using the above sat shot is 17.7N/ 84.2W at 0831Z or 2:31 AM CST. That makes the center 0.5N and 0.5E of where the fix was to be located in 7 hours. I'm using the center of the top light grey cloud for reference.
Which is slightly wobbling around the CoC.

Ida appears to be trending faster and reorganizing more efficiently than model consensus. More alarming in this trend is the current environment rather very supportive from the ocean all the way up... suggesting that Ida may follow a path more in line with the earlier very aggressive model runs. Should the forward motion continue to the right and faster than official guidance expected, it becomes increasingly possible that the net effective shear over Ida will be less than forecast by the time she will be in the GOM, if in fact that is where she is heading, and it would appear that she is indeed. This could make for a cyclone running much hotter than what looks like some rather tame official forecasts, at a time that higher pressure to her N/NE imparts an ever tighter pressure gradient. And it remains to be seen if the mid-latitude trough swinging into the GOM intersects her soon enough to clip her wings.. or in fact arrives only in time to impart some extra outflow and give her a nudge further east. It is probably time for the northern Yucatan, Cuba and now even the southeast to begin preparing for the genuinely high possibility, if not probability, of a rare November top-end tropical storm, if not even hurricane.

Ida seems to be tracking just a tad to the east of the expected tropical point for this hour. She is getting more news here in Central florida. Suprisingly, the news stations ae taking a very objective stance on her so far - no hype, just facts. We expect Tuesday - Thursday will bring showers to the region. We need the rain but we don't want the winds.

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