PATTERNS AND TRENDS IN VIOLENT CRIMEWicked people exist. Character is more often wicked than errant.
(James Q. Wilson)

Just as there are many different types and kinds of
violence, there are many different criminological explanations of violence.
Siegel (2004) documents eight different explanations (personal traits;
ineffective families; substance abuse; human instincts; regional values;
cultural values; gangs; and firearm availability), and Zimring (2007) examines
the usual suspects (imprisonment rates; demography; and the economy). With
criminological explanations of violence, it is customary to
distinguish between behavior that is instrumental (acts which are somehow
related to an attempt to improve one's financial
or social position) and expressive (simple attempts to vent rage, anger, or
frustration). Expressive forms of violence clearly outweigh instrumental
forms of violence, but that doesn't mean the tactic of using violence to get
ahead in life is any less important. Ignoring the "rational" pursuit of
violence leads to the mistake of assuming all violence is crazy, irrational, or
a manifestation of mental illness. One must remember that it might be
possible humans are hard-wired to admire, mimic,
or imitate violence, and it is further worth noting that crime rates can have
"secular" rises and drops, regardless of economic, social, or environmental
factors. The endless debate over nature versus nurture may be useless
because the bottom line cause might be neither.

Most biologists are continually telling us there is no inborn
tendency toward violence, and anthropologists also tell us that history is replete
with stories of peace-loving, matrilineal tribes. However, psychological and
sociological perspectives (which drive most public policy initiatives) tend to
have built-in, ideological "scare tactics" that warn us about things like the
"growing number of antisocials in our midst" or the "crippling effects of
inner-city poverty." Forms of violent criminal behavior, like homicide, assault,
robbery, and rape, each have separate trends and trajectories.
Nonetheless, it is worth the effort to try and examine known facts and
particulars (patterns and trends) to get a glimpse into the
"big picture" of violent crime.

In the United States, violent crime
skyrocketed during the mid-1960s and mid-1970s. It leveled out, but
fluctuated, within a narrow band during the late 1970s and 1980s. Then,
starting in 1991 and for about nine years afterwards, it declined about 40% on
its own despite the persistence of continuing social problems. The only
other nation in the world which experienced such a spectacularly significant
decline like that was Canada. Levitt (2004) argues that the decline was
due to a shrinkage in the crime age-group demography of 18-24 year olds.
Violent crime rates have continued to go down since 2001, and across the board,
except for some stubbornness in aggravated assault (domestic violence mostly),
and some notable shifts in weapon patterns. For example, according to FBI
statistics, starting in 2011, twice as many people are killed every year by
blunt objects (hammers or clubs) than by firearms. This is an unusual
trend that flies in the face of the firearms availability theory. Lots of
theories can expect to be debunked if the great American violent crime decline
continues.

HOMICIDE AND ASSAULT

The unlawful killing of a human being by another with
malice aforethought constitutes homicide. First degree homicide requires
premeditation (cold-blooded planning), and second degree homicide requires
malice aforethought (a desire to kill). Manslaughter lacks the requirement of
malice aforethought, and felony murder lacks both premeditation and malice
aforethought. Voluntary manslaughter is still intentional, but the
circumstances make it less than blameworthy. Involuntary manslaughter is death
that results from negligence or recklessness. Excusable homicide results from
accident or misfortune, and justifiable homicide results from noble motive or
legally recognized demands. If the victim does not die, the crime is defined as
some type of aggravated assault.

Over time, homicide rates have held the promise of going
down, that is, there is a long-term downward trend, but good years are often
followed by bad years. Except for an unusual surge in the late Sixties (25,000)
and an unusual decline in the late Nineties (18,000), most of the recent decades
of the twentieth century were characterized by 20,000 homicides a year.
Fluctuations from year to year tend to be little more than 5% up or down either
way. The patterns for aggravated assault are quite different. Aggravated
assault is the intentional causing of bodily harm with or without a deadly
weapon, or the attempt or threat thereof. Aggravated assault is distinguished
from simple assault where the physical injury is, or could be, relatively
minor. Official crime statistics don't track simple assaults because they just
involve fights or brawls in which there's a black eye or chipped tooth, and when
criminologists talk about assaults, they're usually talking about aggravated
assaults. Assaults have been increasing steadily over the last 100 years.
Currently, the assault rate runs at a little over 1 million per year, but
fluctuations can be severe, as much as up or down 35% per year. The most
frequent weapons used are blunt objects (36%), hands, fists, or feet (28%), guns
(18%), and knives (17%). The overwhelming majority of offenders are males
between the ages of 15 and 34 years of age, and alcohol consumption is typically
related to the offense.

The highest homicide rates have consistently been found
in Third World countries (Rahav 1990). This has led many theorists to speculate
that homicide has something to do with inequality, perhaps
the sense of desperation that comes from living in poverty and disorganization,
or perhaps the sense of relative deprivation that occurs for some groups when
elites are living in prosperity. In developed countries, such as the United
States, the highest homicide rates have consistently been found in the South.
This is called the Southerness hypothesis (technically the
Gastil-Hackney thesis) in criminology,
which involves the study of many factors, such as climate, culture, and gun
ownership (which is high in the South). The linkages between guns and alcohol
and violent crime are undeniable as lethality factors, as is the quality of
medical care. Assaults, for example (where the victim survives) tend to be
concentrated in Western states. In the U.S., criminal violence is also strongly
associated with big cities, and where there are large
concentrations of African-Americans. It's hard to ignore
the sex (male), age (under 25), race (African American), and residency (urban)
correlates of criminal violence, since well over half (and nearly three
quarters) of violent offenders are characterized by this demographic profile (Miethe
& McCorkle 1998), which is also known in criminology as the
subculture of violence hypothesis. In rank order, cities like New
Orleans, Washington, St. Louis, Detroit, Atlanta, Birmingham, Chicago, Miami,
Dallas, Los Angeles, and New York have homicide rates that are frequently five
times the national average of 8.2 per 100,000 population. Cities like Little
Rock and San Bernardino have the highest rates of aggravated assault.

FBI crime reports indicate the vast majority of homicides
involve acquaintances or relatives (75%) rather than strangers (25%).
Females victims are more likely to be murdered by a current or former intimate
partner, while males are more likely to be murdered by an acquaintance or friend
(BJS 2006). A similar
pattern holds true for assault: acquaintances or relatives (60%) versus
strangers (40%). In recent years, however, stranger violence is increasing, as
are drive-bys, serial and mass murder. Serial homicide primarily involves
the targeting of strangers. Homicide is mostly an intra-racial event
since 95% of the time, offender and victim are of the same race (Decker 1993). NCVS data indicate both homicides and assaults most frequently occur on Saturday
nights between the hours of 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Slightly more crimes are
committed during the warmest months (July and August) and during December
(especially for homicide, robbery, and burglary). Perpetrators of homicide
are unlikely to be first-time offenders because at least 50% of the time they
will have a criminal record involving either a "hostile" pattern of priors, an
"instrumental" pattern of priors, or an "unclassifiable" pattern of priors
(Trojan & Gabrielle 2011).

In 1958 criminologist Marvin Wolfgang coined the term
"victim precipitation" to describe where the victim is the first begin the
interplay of criminal violence (by drawing a gun or striking the first blow).
Subsequent criminologists have followed up on this idea by describing the
typical "character contests" that occur in a typical interchange between
offender, victim, and sometimes an audience. David Luckenbill's (1977) model of
five stages is the most well-known of these, as follows:

the victim
makes what the offender perceives as a threatening move, gesture, or remark

the offender
clarifies or interprets the meaning of the threat by making inquiries as to
what the victim meant by asking the victim or bystanders

the offender
then retaliates with a verbal or physical challenge

the victim
then retaliates with increased hostility

a battle
ensures, and either victim or offender is left dead or dying

RAPE AND SEXUAL OFFENSES

The phrase "sexual assault" best describes all the legal
categories for sexual offenses, which range from forcible rape (unlawful carnal
knowledge by force without consent) to a variety of other sexual activities,
including molestation and exhibitionism. Virtually all criminologists regard
rape as a crime of violence rather than sexual offense, but rape can also be
committed by economic (marital rape) and social (date rape) coercion. Statutory
(teen) rape can also occur without force and with consent. Molestation (of a
child) can range from mild fondling to sadomasochism. Exhibitionism can range
from rubbing up against a person to "flashing" one's lack of underclothes. The
one thing they have in common is the mixture of a sexual urge with the desire to
dominate, pursue, capture, pressure, cajole, bully, seduce, or "persuade"
another person to come around to "their" way of thinking -- that it is the
offender's right to hunt and hound their prey (Box 1983). These vile predators
firmly believe their victims will eventually come around to believing that
satisfaction of their pleasure is also their victim's pleasure. The consensus
of most experts is that, in 80 to 85 percent of all rape cases, the victim knows
the defendant, and this is the factor that makes this an underreported crime.

As psychologically intriguing as the study of sexual
offending is, the fact is we aren't really sure whether known sex offenders are
similar to those who go undetected. This is a consequence of the low reporting
rate for sexual assaults. Victims only report a small fraction of offenses for
many reasons: "It was a private matter"; "didn't think anything could be done";
or "afraid of reprisal from offender." It seems reasonable to assert that what
we do know is based on socially inept or careless offenders. Over time, rape
rates have fluctuated wildly, but there is a long-term upward trend. Periods
with low rates include the 1930s and 1950s. Every other decade has seen high
rates, with the most dramatic increases from 1965 to 1995. Currently, about
450,000 rapes or attempted rapes occur every year in America, and the figures
for sex offenses (other than prostitution) are about two to three times higher
than that. These high official figures mean the United States has the
highest sex offense rates in the world. Rwanda is the only other country to
come close, and the U.S. is still four times higher than it.

As with homicide and assault, rape is more likely to be
committed by someone the victim knows. It is also an intra-racial crime, 54% of
the time involving whites, 45% of the time involving African Americans, and 1%
of the time involving other races. Males account for 99% of arrestees, and the
1% of females convicted of rape only play an accomplice role. Females take a
more active role in 10% of other sex offenses, such as molestation and
exhibitionism. There is a trimodal age distribution of
sex offenders: one group being young (age 15-19) and involved more in gang
rapes; a second group being the same as murderers (age 20-24) and involved in
"classic" forcible rapes; and a third group being older (age 25-29) and involved
in molestation and exhibitionism. Most sexual offenses occur during summer
months (July and August) between the hours of 6 p.m. and midnight on weekends.
Weapons are rarely involved, only about 10% of the time.

Unlike homicide and assault, rape and sexual offending
occur mostly in medium sized cities, followed by rural
areas, and then only thirdly in metropolitan areas. Sex crimes have some
interesting geography. Cities with populations of 250,000, 350,000, or 450,000,
like Des Moines, Kansas City, and Milwaukee (a Midwestern pattern), tend to have
the highest rape rates, and then in their suburbs, and then only if the area has
a large number of renter-occupied dwellings. Such areas
also typically have a high percentage of one-parent, female-headed households,
high unemployment, and high divorce rates. Such patterns have suggested to many
criminologists that gender inequality plays an important
role with sex crime rates (Schwendinger & Schwendinger 1983). Controversy
exists over the role of prostitution (sexual permissiveness) in creating a
climate conducive to sexual offending. The link between pornography and sex
crime has been extensively studied, and the consensus of experts is that any
linkage is absent or weak (Reiss & Roth 1993). There is, however, strong
evidence to suggest that anywhere from 40 to 80 percent of sex offenders suffer
from some sort of antisocial personality disorder (Prentky
& Quinsey 1988).

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND ABUSE

Along with murder and rape, a variety of other violent
behaviors go on inside families and between close acquaintances like girlfriends
and boyfriends. Wife beating (also called domestic, or
intimate, violence) is perhaps the most common form of interpersonal harm.
There are, however, seven ways to inflict harm on a spouse or acquaintance: (1)
physically; (2) sexually; (3) verbally; (4) psychologically; (5) spiritually;
(6) economically; and (7) socially. Every year, approximately 1.8 million women
are treated in hospital emergency rooms for physical injuries suffered at the
hands of a spouse, ex-spouse, current boyfriend, or ex-boyfriend (Straus et. al.
1980). Time magazine once reported in 1983 that 6 million wives are
abused every year. The number of actual, unreported cases may be four to five
times higher. Some estimates of domestic violence are as high as 66% of all
relationships. Less than one in ten cases get reported to police. No one good
source of estimated numbers is available.

In point of fact, it is impossible to accurately measure
the amount of domestic violence and abuse. There are few agreed-upon
definitions, attitudes vary, and it was not that long ago when society tolerated
it. Pennsylvania, for example, had a law up until the 1970s that only
prohibited husbands from beating their wives after 10 p.m. and on Sundays. The
phrase "rule of thumb" also comes from English common law which allowed a man to
beat his wife with a stick as long as it was no thicker than his thumb. What we
do know is that wife beating is an escalatory, serial offense.
The offender starts off slapping, shoving, and pushing (stays or moves onto a
different relationship), escalates to hitting, burning, and slapping (stays or
moves onto a different relationship), and then escalates to shooting and beating
to death. Many victims tend to stay in these relationships, being passive and
nonassertive, fulfilling their feminine role demurely, being sexually "giving"
when their husbands are drunk, and never saying any public word about being
beaten.

Lower class sex role socialization
has been suggested as a cause by many researchers (Hamburger & Renzetti 1996).
Among the lower classes, there is presumably a myth among men that women
sometimes enjoy the attention of a beating, and an equally ridiculous belief
among women that they should stand by their man, no matter what. Pregnant women
tend to be particular targets 40% of the time, and younger women more likely
become victims than older women. Race and ethnicity tend to be only minimally
related to the phenomenon. The greatest risk is posed by former partners after
the couple has split up, although stressful holidays (like Christmas) and
Super Bowl Sundays tend to be risky periods for couples
who are still together. Among offenders, a history of alcoholism, economic
insecurity, and sometimes involvement in athletics (the Super
Jock syndrome) and the military tend to be correlates. In criminology,
there is the cycle of violence thesis used to explain the
escalation patterns of repeat victimization, and the
intergenerational thesis used to explain the one-third of offenders who
learned how to become abusers by growing up in a family where they witnessed
abuse.

Family violence also takes the forms of
child abuse, sibling abuse, and elder abuse. In any given year, 20% of
children are assaulted by one of their parents by kicking or punching. Gallup
polls regularly indicate that at least 5% of parents believe it is all right to
punch their children. The rates of infanticide are increasing. Each year, an
estimated 2,000 children die at the hands of their parents or primary
caregivers. Mothers, rather than fathers, tend to be more involved in the abuse
of children, but child abuse wasn't really "discovered" until 1962 by pediatric
radiologists, and since then, we have found that about 50% of it is at the hands
of mothers and 50% of it is at the hands of fathers. Incest, however, is
predominately a father-daughter affair 70% of the time. Some estimates put the
amount of sexual abuse of children at 1.3 million a year. Physical abuse of
children increases the odds of future delinquency or adult criminality by 40% (Widom
1992), and sexual abuse of children has been linked in some studies to future
acts of prostitution. Sibling abuse is widely tolerated
as normal behavior, and there are no known estimates of its prevalence. It is
estimated that one million elderly people (over age 65) are abused every year,
primarily by their spouses 60% of the time. Men are the most common victims of
elder abuse. Depression and paranoia tend to be common
among domestic violence offenders, but these could easily be the consequences of
an incident rather than the cause.

OTHER CRIMES OF VIOLENCE

While most of the crimes above are typically committed by
young, male, lower class African Americans with drug, alcohol, and economic
problems, there are other crimes, equally if not more violent, committed by
whites, other minorities, and successful people. Drunk driving,
for example, kills more Americans yearly (25,000) than are killed by homicide,
and drunk driving is primarily a crime by whites. It has been estimated that on
weekends, about 12% (one in eight) drivers on road are legally drunk (8% on
weekdays). Traffic accidents are the primary cause of death for people between
6 and 28 years of age, and 50% of lethal vehicle crashes are alcohol-related.
There are many controversies regarding drunk driving. Many criminal justice
studies have shown the futility of crackdowns, as nothing the police do seems to
change the fact that many offenders get away with it (apprehension rates tend to
be, at best, only 1 in 82 offenders, and are more typically 1 in 2000 most of
the time). Many forensic science studies have questioned the wisdom of lowering
BAC (blood alcohol concentration) limits, which appears to be the favorite
response of lawmakers, along with stiffer penalties. Public awareness campaigns
do seem to work however, and this is basically a type of offense pattern that
many people just "grow out" of.

Occupational and corporate crime can result in violence,
and there are many, many different definitions of occupational and corporate
crime. Occupational crime (also sometimes called white
collar crime) is crime committed through opportunity created in the course of a
legal occupation. White collar crime involving big corporations (also called
corporate crime) causes somewhere between 30,000 and 55,000 deaths a year,
primarily through faulty consumer products, pollution,
radioactivity, and toxic waste dumping. Also every year, there are 100,000
deaths from work-related accidents, many of those resulting from
unsafe working conditions in the workplace, and directly connectable to
at least the negligence or recklessness of supervisors.

Corporate crime can be quite
harmful, as the 1977 Ford Pinto case revealed. These cars burst into flames
with the slightest rear end collision. Executives at Ford Motor calculated it
was less costly to pay off each of the 180 burn deaths with $200,000 payments
than to spend $137 million recalling all the defective cars to replace an $11
part. Such logic is standard business practice. Some
professional crime can be considered violent. Physicians, for example,
perform an estimated two million unnecessary surgeries a year, fleecing the
victims, insurance companies, and taxpayers. Government crime
can also be quite violent when it fails to protect, say, the 41% of Americans
who have no health insurance, neglects its homeless population, allows police
brutality, or uses its own citizens as guinea pigs in experiments.

Organized crime is the hardest type
of violent crime to define, but it tends to be crime that has no ideology (it's
all about money and power), is hierarchical or quasi-bureaucratic (with a
leadership structure, rules and regulations, and division of labor),
self-perpetuating (it persists through time), and aims toward monopoly
(domination of a city, city section, or entire industry). Over time, organized
crime tends to captivate 5% of a nation's economy (40% in Russia), and is quite
lethal in its methods for coming to power. Controversies exist in criminology
over exactly how "organized" is organized crime, the role of kinship ties, the
role of a common ethnic heritage, and what is the best way to fight
it.