Solar Weather Forecasting Becomes Vital as Sun Gears Up for Wild Ride

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SAN FRANCISCO — Following an extended quiet period, the sun is
ramping up for an era of intense activity, and researchers are
prepping to prevent solar storms from disrupting life here on
Earth.

For the first time, scientists say, it's possible to
predict how solar storms will hit our planet, much like
meteorologists predict how hurricanes will hit a coastline. This
early warning allows power grids to adjust for electrical
fluctuations, and airlines to switch to alternative communication
systems that won't be affected by the vagaries of space weather.

Yet this forecasting ability is in its nascent stage, experts
say, and still leaves a lot of gaps to fill when it comes to
space weather.

"We are living in a really, really exciting time right now,"
Antti Pulkkinen, a physicist at Catholic University in
Washington, D.C., and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in
Greenbelt, Md., said Tuesday (Dec. 6) here at the annual meeting
of the American Geophysical Union. "We are really witnessing the
emergence of numerical space weather forecasting." [ Stunning
Photos of Solar Flares & Sun Storms ]

Fun on the sun

This transformation comes at a good time. The sun varies from
phases of relative peace to eras rocked by magnetic solar storms
over a
cycle of roughly 11 years. Lately, the sun has been at its
quietest in two centuries, said Daniel Baker, the director of the
University of Colorado, Boulder's Atmospheric and Space Physics
Lab.

"The most recent minimum was broader, deeper and was very much
comparable to a very low period called the Dalton minimum back in
the 1800s," Baker said.

Now, however, the sun is shaking off its slumber. Sunspots, dark
patches caused by strong magnetic activity, are back up, Baker
said, and the sun is entering another period of
solar maximum, set to peak in 2013. Researchers expect this
period of storminess to be no more intense than in previous high
years in the cycle, but even a moderate solar maximum can spur
impressive storms.

"Some of the largest solar storms on record actually occurred
during modest sun spot peak periods," Baker said.

The sun's activity matters on Earth because when the sun spews
huge sheets of solar wind — called
coronal mass ejections — the particles from these ejections
can disrupt the magnetic field surrounding our planet.

On the plus side, these disturbances create beautiful auroras in
the sky near the North and South Poles. However, they can also
cause electrical fluctuations in power grids and
disrupt satellite communications. Given that satellites
affect everything from global-positioning systems to airline
communications, disturbances can be costly and dangerous.

Space-storm preparedness

With enough warning, there are ways for industries to protect
themselves from these solar eruptions.

Power-grid operators might adjust voltages to make sure energy
fluctuations don't max out the grid, said Rodney Viereck of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA) Space
Weather Prediction Center. Companies that rely on precise GPS
measurements, such as deep-sea drilling projects, may delay
operations until the storm passes. Airlines may switch
communications systems or even re-route flights to ensure that
airplanes don't go silent.

To make these adjustments, industries need to know when and where
a solar storm might hit, and how strong it will be. NASA, NOAA
(the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the
Department of Defense (DOD) are working to improve forecasting of
space weather. Currently, these groups can often give
one-to-three-days' warning before a storm.

The need is becoming more urgent as more and more technology
comes online that can be disturbed by solar storms, Viereck said.
At the last solar maximum, almost no farmers used GPS, he said.
Today, on the other hand, farmers use GPS to lay out fields, map
yields, and guide farm equipment. Those new electronics users
will need to learn on the job how to adjust when solar storms
hit.

Currently, real-time warnings of solar storms come from a suite
of NASA spacecraft, including its SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric
Observatory) and SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) satellites, as
well as a solar-wind monitoring craft called the Advanced
Composition Explorer (ACE). The latter satellite has already
functioned for 10 years longer than it was designed to work,
Viereck said, but NASA, NOAA and the DOD plan to launch a
replacement, called DISCOVR, in January 2014.

Not all solar disruptions can be predicted, however. In 2006, a
solar radio burst knocked out GPS across the United States for 10
minutes, said Louis Lanzerotti of the New Jersey Institute of
Technology. Because solar radio travels about as fast as
sunlight, there was no warning. That's why continued scrutiny of
solar activity is so important, he said.

"We do not understand any of the physics behind the solar flare
event, how many electrons were produced. There was no prediction
and no warning," Lanzerotti said. "There is some of the
fundamental physics that we don't understand."