Jill Stein and Hillary Clinton seek recounts in three close states that Trump won: WI, PA, MI. This is an analysis of six states that Clinton barely won. Shouldn’t they be re-counted as well?

The 2016 Election Model exactly forecast the official recorded electoral vote: 306 – 232. It also forecast the True electoral vote as 351-187 (after undecided voter allocation). Trump would win the True EV if he won six states he narrowly lost: VA NV MN NH ME CO.

NHFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NH by 3,000 votes (47.6-47.2%)Party-ID: 36D-33R-31I.Using the same vote shares, but with a 21.5D-23.9R-54.6I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey (32D-28R-40I), Trump won NH by 28,000 votes (47.9-44.0%).MNFinal Exit Poll: Clinton won MN by 44,000 votes (46.9-45.4%)Party-ID: 37D-35R-28I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 34.7D-31R-34.3I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey. Trump won MN by 31,000 votes (47.2-46.1%).

MEFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won ME by 20,000 votes (47.9-45.2%)Party-ID: 31D-30R-39I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 25.2D-21.6R-53.3I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won ME by 24,000 votes (47.3-44.1%).

COFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won CO by 75,000 votes (47.3-44.4%)Party-ID: 32D-24R-33I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 24.4D-26.2R-49.5I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won CO by 86,000 votes (47.5-44.1%).

NVFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NV by 26,000 votes (47.7-45.5%)Party-ID: 36D-28R-36I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.3D-27.5R-41.2I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won NV by 20,000 votes (47.2-45.5%)

VAFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won VA by 186,000 votes (49.9-45.0%)Party-ID: 40D-33R-26I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.6D-33.4R-35I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won VA by 60,000 votes (48.1-46.1%).

These states look fraudulent (vote padding?)
IL
Final Exit Poll: Clinton won IL by 859,000 votes (55.4-39.4%)
Party-ID: 45D-30R-25I
Using the same vote shares with an estimated
Party-ID: 37.1D-27.8R-35.1I derived from the Gallup National survey
Clinton won IL by 336,000 votes (51.1-41.4%).

In the primaries (25 exit and 2 entrance polls) Bernie Sanders had 65% of Independents, but just 45.3% of the total vote.

The 42I-28D-28R Gallup Party-ID survey equates to 60I-40D in the primaries. Using this split for the 27 adjusted exit polls, Clinton needed 83.4% of Democrats to match the recorded vote. The adjusted polls indicate that Sanders had 64.6% of Independents.

If Sanders had 37% of Democrats, he would have had a total 53.6% share.

Exit Poll States

Gallup Pct

Sanders

Clinton

IND

60.0%

64.6%

35.4%

Dem

40.0%

37.0%

63.0%

Est. True Vote

100.0%

53.6%

46.4%

Recorded

45.3%

54.7%

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have
5%(implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.
10%(conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.
20%(plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.
30%(optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

Sanders had 52% of Independents in the 11 RED states. Clinton needed an IMPLAUSIBLE 97% of Democrats to match the recorded vote.

Sanders had an estimated 65% of Independents in the 40 BLUE/OTHER states. If he had 30% of Democrats, he would have had 51%.

The 2016 Election Modelindicates that Green Party candidate Jill Stein can win a fraud-free election, based on a) recent Party-ID surveys and b) primary exit poll vote shares of Independents and Democrats.

The model assumes that Stein is on the ballot in every state. Various scenarios are displayed given Party-ID assumptions and corresponding vote shares. It is not a forecast.

Statistical evidence based on manipulated voter rolls (strip), impossible exit poll discrepancies (flip) and Wikileaks DNC e-mails suggest that Sanders easily won the True Vote in the primaries. The election was stolen in every way imaginable.

Base Case

The assumption is that Stein will win 45% of Independents, 35% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans. This results in a 30.6% win – and 318 electoral votes.

In 2014, the National Party ID split was: 41% Democratic, 35% Republican and 24% Independent. In the model, we assume the current 2016 split: 40% Independents, 32% Democratic and 28% Republicans.

1-2016 state Party-ID: based on the change from 2014 National Party ID to 2016.
Example 2014 Illinois Party ID: from 47D-35R-18I to 37D-28R-35I
2-State vote shares: apply estimated National shares to the state Party-ID mix.
3-Electoral Vote summed for each candidate.

BASE CASE

Party-ID

Pct

Stein

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Ind

40%

45%

25%

10%

20%

Dem

32%

35%

50%

5%

10%

Repub

28%

5%

5%

75%

15%

Total

100%

30.6%

27.4%

26.6%

15.4%

Votes

129,106

39,506

35,375

34,342

19,882

Elect Vote

538

318

11

209

0

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

What if Stein’s share of Democrats and Independents varies from the base case scenario?

The tables show Stein and Trump vote shares and corresponding margins for 25 scenarios: Stein gets 31-39% of Democrats and 40-50% of Independents. The Base Case is in the central cell of each table (Stein has 30.6%).

Stein wins 13 of the 15 scenarios.

Stein

% Dem

Stein %

31.0%

33.0%

35.0%

37.0%

39.0%

of Ind

Stein

50%

31.3%

32.0%

32.6%

33.2%

33.9%

45%

29.3%

30.0%

30.6%

31.2%

31.9%

40%

27.3%

28.0%

28.6%

29.2%

29.9%

Trump

50%

25.9%

25.2%

24.6%

24.0%

23.3%

45%

27.9%

27.2%

26.6%

26.0%

25.3%

40%

29.9%

29.2%

28.6%

28.0%

27.3%

Stein

Margin

50%

5.4%

6.7%

8.0%

9.3%

10.6%

45%

1.4%

2.7%

4.0%

5.3%

6.6%

40%

-2.6%

-1.3%

0.0%

1.3%

2.6%

Stein

Vote Margin (000)

50%

7,023

8,676

10,328

11,981

13,634

45%

1,859

3,512

5,164

6,817

8,469

40%

-3,305

-1,653

0

1,653

3,305

Jill Stein Polling Sensitivity analysis

Assuming Independents are 40% of the electorate, then for Jill Stein to have

– 5% (implausible), she needs 12% of Independents and 0% of Democrats and Republicans.

– 10% (conservative), she needs 17% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and Republicans.

– 20% (plausible), she needs 35% of Independents and 10% of Democrats and Republicans.

– 30% (optimistic), she needs 52% of Independents and 15% of Democrats and Republicans.

In the tables, Independents range from 10-40%

A Stein share of IND greater than 100% or less than zero is impossible (na)