Rapid Conclusions to EU Brexit for Expats

ProACT Sam looks forward to a Brexit Month End. Beware the ides of March and expect bumpy weather along the way.

Brexit negotiations

UK Guarantees to EU Expats

Cyprus immigration

German Duel Citizenship

The Time Table

Week 1 of March sees a UK delegation heading out on 5/3 for EU Commission Brexit negotiations.

Week 2 and the UK Parliament will vote 12/3 to accept the Withdrawal Treaty on the table with an EU concessions, including a transition period , or, vote leave with no such deal.

Week 3 is designed for the EU Summit of 27 leaders 21/3 to unanimously vote to accept the Withdrawal Treaty agreed by the UK and EU Commission.

Or to extend....

Week 4 is the end of March, Brexit day 29/3/18, but also the end day for the current EU commission and EU MP’s with new ones to be appointed or elected from April. Everything ends...

Spring Blossom

We full expect the EU to now make in week 1 their final concessions and offers to the UK to get the Withdrawal Treaty they want agreed.

Peace and goodwill breaks out in week 2, Bonhomie, accord, blossoms between the EU and UK in a charm offensive to get a UK Parliamentary vote for the Treaty.

It may still fail, in which case a no deal vote may be passed.

Deal No Deal

My belief is that the UK and EU will agree a contingency for this no deal scenario. That both sides will agree to work under the terms of the withdrawal treaty, without it being ratified by the EU Summit or UK parliament.

Under World Trade Organisation (WTO) Rules, (that UK and EU use for trade outside the EU) both sides could have agreed in March in principle to sign an agreement on 1st April to operate under WTO rules , using the Withdrawal Treaty Transition

Rules as the basis of trade, until a new trade bilateral treaty agreement is settled.

You can see no deal planning centred around the end of transition date - December 2020.

UK for Expats

The UK have guaranteed all EU Expats Living and Working Abroad in the UK by 29/3/19 EU Brexit day the same rights as EU Citizens through to the December 2020 date, even with no deal. Thereafter settled status maintains these rights for a lifetime.

Cyprus for Expats

In February the Cyprus Government confirmed they would offer and guarantee the same EU Citizen rights to UK Expats Living and Working Abroad in Cyprus after Brexit even with no deal.

With a no deal EU Brexit for Expats looming at the start of March though Cyprus is accelerating and bringing forward new and permanent residency applications for UK Expats in Cyprus.

German Movement

The Germans traditionally don’t allow duel citizenships for its residents. In the run up to EU Brexit for Expats they have allow duel citizenship for The British Living and Working Abroad in Germany under new immigration rules.

Rapid Conclusions

Everything EU Brexit for Expats will move quickly in March towards rapid conclusions. We may then only re-enter a new negotiation period in April for a new trade deal, let’s hope we can learn how to do it better.

Meanwhile Expats should take action in what they know , and the rules today, in the knowledge that all sides want to keep the world the same, but different.

Event.

Join us in Paphos as we look forward to Brexit & what it means for expats.