Monday, August 12, 2013

Don’t bank on huge returns from this year’s rookie class

Six rookies made impressive debuts during the 2012
season. Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck
and Russell Wilson set a high bar for this year’s freshman quarterbacks, while
Doug Martin, Alfred Morris and Trent Richardson put up the gaudiest production
for a trio of first-year backs since the bumper crop of 2008 (Matt Forte, Chis
Johnson, Steve Slaton).

No receivers or tight ends finished among the Top 20 at
their positions, however. I guess that’s
what happens when the pick of the litter (Justin Blackmon) is banished to the
aerial wasteland of Jacksonville.

So what are we to make of this year’s newcomers?

Remember that when evaluating the fantasy potential of any
rookie, talent is rarely the most decisive factor. More relevant is the opportunity presented to
the player, which is also a multi-faceted equation.

Does the newcomer have a clear path to a starting gig? Will he join a high-powered offense, or one
whose punter is its most lethal weapon?
Is he healthy heading into the season, or has he missed invaluable
preseason reps due to nagging injuries?

With these variables in mind, let’s examine the Class of
2013 and assess its members’ likelihood of shining during their inaugural
seasons.

GIVE THEM A CHANCE

LeVeon Bell, RB,
Steelers. No team values a big workhorse
back more than Pittsburgh, and Bell has the look of an every-down player. He’s blessed with good hands, deceptive speed
and outstanding athleticism. The
Michigan State product is fully expected to be the opening-week starter,
despite tweaking his knee during training camp.

Giovani Bernard,
RB, Bengals. A preseason hamstring
injury has slowed his progression, but the first runner drafted in April is
expected to supplant BenJarvus Green-Ellis at some point this season. Just don’t invest too high a pick on him.

Montee Ball, RB,
Broncos. Those expecting Ball to win the
starting job outright are in for a big letdown, as head coach John Fox has rarely
entrusted rookie backs with a heavy load.
Pass protection is mandatory in Denver’s scheme, and Ball has struggled
in training camp. Look for the rookie to
be eased in via committee as the season progresses.

Eddie Lacy, RB,
Packers. Green Bay hasn’t had a viable
fantasy back since Ryan Grant in 2009.
The team believes Lacy can be the stud they’ve lacked, but the Packers
will still live and die by the pass. If
you can grab him cheap, you might get some value.

Zac Stacy, RB,
Rams. This fifth-round pick from
Vanderbilt has a chance to start at some point this season, given the unproven
talent ahead of him. For now, the job is
Daryl Richardson’s to lose. Grab Stacy
late and you just might end up with a bargain.

Tavon Austin, WR,
Rams. St. Louis didn’t use the
eighth-overall draft pick on Austin to groom him for the future. His diminutive stature makes him risky, but
Percy Harvin Lite is an electrifying, multidimensional weapon that can score from
anywhere on the field.

DeAndre Hopkins,
WR, Texans. Houston finally has a
talented young wideout to line up opposite Andre Johnson and provide coverage
nightmares for opposing defenses. Give
him a few weeks to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL, and Hopkins could
become a reliable fantasy backup.

LOOK, BUT DON’T TOUCH

Geno Smith, QB,
Jets. With only Mark Sanchez in his way,
Smith will almost surely get his chance to start. But the offensive woes in New York run far
deeper than Sanchez, making Smith’s prospects for early success dubious at best.

EJ Manuel, QB,
Bills. Buffalo invested a premium pick
on this strong-armed, but raw, prospect.
Like Smith, he faces subpar competition (we’re looking at you, Kevin
Kolb), so Manuel will get his moment in the limelight. Still, he’s at least a year away from fantasy
relevance.

Cordarrelle Patterson,
WR, Vikings. He need only climb over two
mediocre veterans to earn a starting role opposite Greg Jennings, which isn’t
too tall an order for a receiver with his credentials. But in Minnesota’s pass-challenged offense,
Patterson’s talents will likely be squandered.

Aaron Dobson, WR,
Patriots. If not for New England’s
remarkably miserable track record with rookie wideouts, you’d think the team’s
second-round pick would offer huge upside.
Only Julian Edelman stands between Dobson and significant face time with
Tom Brady.

Robert Woods, WR,
Bills. He’s fully expected to earn the
starting job opposite Stevie Johnson, but that role has rarely translated into
fantasy value.

Tyler Eifert, TE,
Bengals. With Jermaine Gresham ahead of
him, the best tight end of his draft class will be hard-pressed to make a
fantasy impact in his freshman campaign.

Welcome home, Fools!

2011 and 2010 Football Writer of the Year

Fantasy Fools on Facebook

About the Chief Fool

Ladd Biro was named 2010 "Football Writer of the Year" by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association -- the most prestigious recognition in the biz. In 2011, he won again -- the only two-time winner in the FSWA's history. He also won for "Best Humor Column of 2011," across all sports. He was a finalist for the FFWOY Award again in 2013 and 2014, but someone obviously paid off the judges to prevent the threepeat. Ladd's nationally syndicated columns have appeared in more than 20 publications -- including the Dallas Morning News, San Francisco Chronicle, Philadelphia Inquirer, Chicago Sun-Times and Sporting News magazine -- since 2003. Since 2009, all his written fantasy content can be found on the Fantasy Fools blog.