Saturday, 13 March 2010

The uneasy, contentious, history-ridden relationship between Armenia and Turkey has been important in the security and development of the South Caucasus region ever since Armenia gained its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Turkey was among the first to recognise the small landlocked Armenia’s independence, yet over the last almost two decades the two neighbours have been at loggerheads – for historical and geopolitical reasons, due to military conflicts with third countries and simply as part of some inertia. As of late, there appeared a new light on the horizon signalling re-establishing of diplomatic relations and opening of the closed mutual border, namely the signing of official Protocols to these ends by the two foreign ministers late in 2009; the Protocols are to come into effect after ratification by the respective legislatures. But ratification prospects have started to dim in view of a tangible slowdown in the process, mutual accusations by the two sides of each one’s attempts at introducing preconditions for ratification, and even threats of abrogation.

The current moment seems to be geopolitically opportune for a general rapprochement, establishing of relations and opening of the border. Turkey and Armenia have shown a tendency in the last couple of years for softening towards each other and readiness to talk, despite nationalist outbursts at home and the slowdown in the ratification process. Many a major stakeholder in the Black Sea region seem to favour a normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations: the United States and the European Union have traditionally supported it, while Russia’s position has transformed after the 2008 Georgian war from neutral and even negative to tacitly approving of rapprochement. Also, in times of world economic slump, the moment offers a valuable chance of opening one border and spurring development on both sides of it. And last but not least, it is high time for normalisation to happen in view of the approaching 100th anniversary of the April 24, 1915, events when Armenia commemorates the mass killings and deportations of Armenians committed by the Ottoman Empire and when nationalist sentiments are expected to rise.

Restored diplomatic relations between Armenia and Turkey, a reopened border and a launched cooperation, which is immediately feasible in a number of spheres, will be of tangible benefit to both countries, especially their border regions, and will boost regional cooperation and stability in the Caucasus in the long run. The present inertia and lack of resolve for changing the status quo towards conflict settlement and cooperation in the Caucasus as a whole has led to no improvement in relations. An open, pragmatic and economically advantageous relationship between Armenia and Turkey should serve as an example for the rest in the entire Black Sea area.

There are a number of possible areas where cooperation between Armenia and Turkey could take immediate effect even before diplomatic relations are re-established, given the border is opened. These are spheres of common interest that could be logical object of pursuit for every modern state in the 21st century. I first shortly examine the background of oscillating relations between the two countries since the early 1990s; try to identify the basic factors that have been determining those relations; and then juxtapose to them the areas of possible cooperation and common interest. Surprisingly, the possibilities for mutual benefit are not fewer in number than the drawbacks pulling for preservation of the status quo. It remains to be seen whether they are stronger.

About

I am based in Sofia, Bulgaria, formerly a journo and a researcher in the non-profit sector, now a civil servant fighting trafficking in human beings. I blog in English, Bulgarian and occasionally in some of the ex-Yugoslav languages about wine, travel and politics in the Balkans, the EU and its eastern neighbourhood. The name of the blog, излаз (izlaz), means 'egress,' 'outlet' in Bulgarian and 'exit' in Bosnian/Serbian/Croatian.