Motor Mouth: Six ominous automotive predictions for 2016

Temper that New Year's cheer – not all will be well in the automotive world, if a few of these predictions come true

by
David Booth | January 8, 2016

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Ah, the start of a new year. Your hangover is ancient history, the world economy hasn’t yet had time to completely crash and the size of your Boxing Day-sale 65-inch OLED TV is still a novelty. So, optimism still permeates the air. Allow me, then, to shatter all this pent-up good cheer with some not quite apocalyptic, but still seriously concerning, predictions for 2016 — automotive style.

1) Tesla’s vaunted Autopilot will get in an accident. And not just the fender benders that plague Google’s little self-driving runabouts, but a frame cruncher that could cause serious injury.

The problem isn’t Tesla’s software. Indeed, by all accounts, the Autopilot system that is part of Version 7.0 of Tesla’s software update is more than competent — YouTube is full of videos showing Model S’s merrily driving themselves. Nope, the problem, states MIT’s Technology Review, is that while “Tesla says its new Autopilot feature is not synonymous with autonomous driving, some drivers are acting like it is.”

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Along with all those laudatory YouTubers showing on-track Teslas are a disturbing number showing the Model S suddenly veering into oncoming traffic — so far without deleterious consequences — as owners, many of them “early adopters” who like testing technology to its limits, push Autopilot beyond Tesla’s clearly stated limitations. “Drivers need to maintain control and responsibility of their vehicle while enjoying the convenience of Autopilot in the Model S,” says Khobi Brooklyn, Tesla’s director of global communications. Not everyone’s getting the message.

The front-facing camera, tucked behind the rearview mirror, serves as the system’s eyes

2) The average fuel economy of cars in North America will decrease even further. No, not the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) of the cars that automakers produce. That continues to grow almost exponentially; there are now 26 cars sold in the United States that get better than 40 miles per U.S. gallon, as automakers work to meet global fuel economy regulations.

Rather, I’m talking about the average fuel economy of the vehicles we consumers actually buy. Thanks to the ever-decreasing cost of crude — and a (slightly smaller) decrease in pump prices — North Americans are buying larger and more powerful cars. Pickup sales are booming, ditto SUVs, and even once-thought-extinct dinosaurs like the Cadillac Escalade are making a comeback. According to Michael Sivak of the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, who monitors vehicle fuel consumption, “the average fuel economy of new vehicles sold in the U.S. in November was 25 mpg — down 0.1 mpg from the revised value for October, and down 0.8 mpg from the peak reached in August 2014.” With analysts speculating that crude could drop as low as US$20 a barrel — could we see the return of 75-cents-a-litre gas? — it’s unlikely this profligacy will abate anytime soon.

3) Volkswagen will get broken up. At the very least, the vast empire that is Volkswagen AG will get whittled down. If the diesel emissions scandal extends to every diesel in Porsche’s and Audi’s portfolio, look for some serious scapegoating. If it does happen, Porsche, an independent entity until just a few years ago, would almost assuredly be the first to go.

Volkswagen engineers reportedly began working on cheating emissions software as much as 10 years ago

Even if it doesn’t break apart, VW AG faces some extraordinary costs, what with the re-jigging of more than 11 million cars, various punitive penalties and, of course, the myriad lawsuits that are sure to punish its treachery. The US$10 billion the company is said to have set aside will not be nearly enough, so look to the board of directors to start selling off some of the less essential parts of the empire, such as Ducati — yes, Volkswagen owns the somewhat tempestuous, and not often profitable, Italian motorcycle manufacturer — and the MAN truck division. I suspect Bentley is untouchable, but, if I were an upper manager at Lamborghini — yes, VW also owns a tempestuous, and not often profitable, Italian supercar manufacturer, too — I’d be looking for a way to transfer myself back to Germany. This is going to get a lot more ugly before it gets better.

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4) More cities will try to ban cars. This one is a no-brainer as some European big-city mayors — most loudly, Paris’s Anne Hidalgo — have already vowed to ban diesels and, in some cases, all cars, from their downtown cores to combat runaway air pollution. Indeed, the list of cities jumping on the anti-automobile bandwagon is growing. Hamburg is banning cars on certain roads, Madrid wants to expel cars by 2020 and Milan recently had to temporarily ban all cars from its core to battle choking smog. Dublin, Brussels and London are said to be contemplating their own diesel bans and, as Driving has already noted, Oslo want to ban all cars — even EVs — by 2019. According to the World Health Organization, some seven million premature deaths annually are linked to air pollution, a large part of which protagonists say stems from automotive tailpipes. It may take a little longer for this tsunami of anti-car sentiment to hit North America. But have no doubt, it’s coming.

Police officers control a vehicle in Paris, Monday, March 17, 2014. Cars with even-numbered licence plates are prohibited from driving in Paris and its suburbs Monday, following a government decision over the weekend. Paris is taking drastic measures to combat its worst air pollution in years, banning around half of the city’s cars and trucks from its streets in an attempt to reduce the toxic smog that’s shrouded the City of Light for more than a week. Visible in background is the Arc de Triomphe.

5) Apple takes over our dashboards. Fifteen years after BMW plagued us with iDrive, the auto industry has finally decided to do what it should have done all along and hand all this computer interface/infotainment business over to the experts, namely Apple and Google. Most General Motors products will offer either CarPlay or Android Auto in 2016 and Volkswagen, Volvo and myriad other marques are not far behind. Imagine that, the cellphone interfaces we all use daily — hell, hourly — right there in our cars. You mean we won’t have to learn a whole new OS every time we buy a new car? And, all the data on our iPhones will be readily at hand? It took just 15 years for the auto industry to figure that this might be a good thing? Who says automakers are slow on the uptake?

6) Electric vehicles will roam further afield. Another no-brainer. Porsche has already announced its new Mission E will go 500 kilometres on a charge. Ditto Audi’s Q6 e-tron. None of this is rocket science: Like Tesla, they’ll just cram larger — and more expensive — batteries into big — and more expensive — luxury cars. When this will all trickle down to the $25,000 to $35,000 range that might appeal to the masses is anyone’s guess. Tesla keeps promising, but all we ever seem to get is evermore play-toys for the independently foolish.

A visitor presses Apple’s new CarPlay touch-screen commands inside the Volvo Estate concept car displayed during the press day of the Geneva Motor Show in Geneva, on March 4, 2014.