Pres. Obama's stimulus package succeeded in kicking up investment and production in the electric...

Pres. Obama's stimulus package succeeded in kicking up investment and production in the electric vehicles, but the lingering question of long-term success remains unanswered. Investments in the industry by China and South Korea outpace that of the U.S., while it's also unclear if strict mpg rules set for the future will stay in place. But insiders still say ambitious EV goals can be met with longer-range, cheaper batteries to help drivers adopt a new paradigm. EV-related plays: AEF, AVAV, ECTY, F, GACR.PK, KNDI, NRG, NSANY.PK, GM, TSLA, ZAAP.OB.

The market will determine where and by whom batteries and motors for electric vehicles will be manufactured. At the moment, the American-based automakers are choosing locally produced batteries, motors, electronics, etc. Some of the companies that are building EV components and related commodities may be based in Asia or elsewhere, but the work is by and large being done locally, to cut transportation costs.

The price of entry into the EV market though is pretty high, driving the cost of the vehicles high - higher than conventionally powered vehicles. No surprises there.

But the costs per unit tend to drop off as production rises significantly. If and when the market supports volumes of 200,000 to 500,000 EVs and hybrids, then unit costs should start to drop to the point where more and more folks can afford them, which feeds back to even higher volumes and lower prices.

It cannot be ruled out that the Chinese and other Asians may be able to build and transport EV related commodities more cheaply, and then flood the market with them; and the US automakers would be foolish not to take advantage of favorable pricing on these commodities. Others will decide whether this practice is fair and whether something should be done about it.

We are essentially at the "Model T" point for electric vehicles (again). Whether the phenomenon can reach critical mass this time is debatable. But the direction from California and several other environmentally sensitive CARB States (and The Regime) is that plug-in vehicles are essentially a mandatory part of the plan going forward, with heavy penalties to be levied against automakers that fail to supply them at necessary volumes, and ultimately, denial of access to the market. Which brings up other issues regarding interstate commerce, but that is reaching into another topic.