My Hall of Fame picks

For me, nothing is more fun than watching a baseball game with friends when somebody asks, “So is insert player name here a Hall of Famer?” I love arguing about who should be in the Hall of Fame. I think that I generally have higher standards for the Hall than most people, except when it comes to second basemen, shortstops, and catchers. I’m a big believer that Hall of Fame credentials should be judged against others who have played the same position, so it should be toughest for outfielders and first basemen to get in.

A lot of bloggers have been writing about who they think is worthy for Hall of Fame induction this year, and I’ve been commenting on several of their posts, so I decided that it’s time for me to throw my hat in the ring…

There are 23 players on the ballot this year. 10 of them are first-timers:

Jay Bell

David Cone

Ron Gant

Mark Grace

Rickey Henderson

Jesse Orosco

Dan Plesac

Greg Vaughn

Mo Vaughn

Matt Williams

13 players are back on the ballot after failing to get 75% of the vote in past elections:

Harold Baines

Bert Blyleven

Andre Dawson

Tommy John

Don Mattingly

Mark McGwire

Jack Morris

Dale Murphy

Dave Parker

Tim Raines

Jim Rice

Lee Smith

Alan Trammell

I’ll divide the players into several groups. First here are the players for whom I can’t even imagine a good argument being made for their Hall of Fame candidacy. They shouldn’t be getting a single vote on anyone’s ballot:

Jay Bell – He was a decent shortstop for Pittsburgh in the early 1990s and had some nice home run totals in the late 1990s when everyone’s home run numbers were inflated. If it hadn’t been for the era in which he hit those home runs, his 195 career home runs would be very good for a shortstop. However, I think that his single-digit home run seasons in the early 1990s were more indicative of his true power than his 38 home run season in 1999. Aside from that season, I don’t think he was ever one of the top five shortstops in baseball. Bell’s career stats can be seen here.

Ron Gant – Well, he had a great start to his career in Atlanta, but he quickly declined. His best seasons, and the only ones in which he had 100 RBI, were in 1991 and 1993. By the late 1990s, his offensive numbers were below-average for an outfielder, and he became somewhat of a journeyman, bouncing between a bunch of different teams. He’s not even close to a Hall of Famer. Gant’s career stats can be seen here.

Mark Grace – I know that he’s beloved by Cubs fans, but his offensive numbers are even worse than I thought. Did you realize that he never hit 20 home runs or had 100 RBI in any season? And he played in the steroid era! I think it’s safe to say that Grace’s name will never be mentioned in connection to steroids. He did have a career batting average of .303, but for most of his career he wasn’t among the top 10, or even top 15, offensive first basemen in baseball. Grace’s career stats can be seen here.

Jesse Orosco – It seemed like he lasted forever, and he did pitch until he was 46, but aside from a few seasons in the early 1980s when he was pretty dominant as the Mets closer (or to use the term that was preferred back then, “fireman”), he was nothing more than a pretty good middle reliever his entire career. Anyone who votes for him should be disqualified from future Hall of Fame elections. Orosco’s career stats can be seen here.

Dan Plesac – Plesac was very similar to Orosco, except that he didn’t pitch as long and his stats were worse. He had a few good seasons as the Brewers closer in the late 1980s, and then he became an average to below-average middle reliever who bounced between a bunch of teams for the rest of his career. Anyone who votes for him should not only be disqualified from voting, but they should never be allowed to even write about baseball ever again. Plesac’s career stats can be seen here.

Greg Vaughn – Hey, a former Devil Ray! But he was a horrible Devil Ray. He had some great seasons in the height of the steroid era in the late 1990s, highlighted by 50 home runs in 1998. But he had a .242 career batting average, and 355 home runs for a power hitter in his era are not nearly enough. It makes me laugh to see him on the ballot. Vaughn’s career stats can be seen here.

Mo Vaughn – Well, his credentials are much better than Greg, and he was one of the best offensive players in the A.L. between 1993 – 2000. Unfortunately, that wasn’t long enough, and his 328 career home runs are not nearly enough for a guy from his era. His .293 career batting average, .383 OBP, and .523 SLG are higher than I thought. He’s not close to the Hall, but he is better than most of the other first-timers. Vaughn’s career stats can be seen here.

The second group consists of the players for whom somewhat of an argument could at least be made, but they still fall short of ever getting into the Hall in my mind:

Harold Baines – All apologies to Steve from White Sox Cards, but Baines is no Hall of Famer. Sure, he had a very good career, but was he ever one of the best hitters in baseball? No. His best years were at the start of his career in the early 1980s when he was one of the most productive outfielders in baseball for a few years. By the late 1980s, injuries turned him into a full-time DH, and he was never more than a steady, but not great, hitter. In the late 1980s and entire 1990s, I would have never considered Baines to be one of the top 20, or even 30, hitters in baseball. He lasted a very long time and wound up with 2,866 hits. If he had reached 3,000 he’d probably get in, but it would have only been because of that milestone, and his Hall credentials would have been worse than anyone else in the 3,000 hit club. But he didn’t get to 3,000 hits, or even 400 home runs while playing in an era with inflated offensive numbers. Also, being a DH certainly doesn’t help him. Paul Molitor was a DH for much of his career and he’s in the Hall, but it’s because his numbers were Hall-worthy despite being a DH. I’m not against DHs being in the Hall, but if they are, they better have outstanding offensive numbers. As we’ve already established, Baines does not. I don’t think there’s any compelling argument for him to be in the Hall. Baines’ career stats can be seen here.

Don Mattingly – Yes, he’s my favorite player of all-time, but let’s face it, he’s not even close to a Hall of Famer. I think that the only reason that he’s still on the ballot is that he played in New York. If Mattingly had been able to have more seasons like 1984 – 1989, when he was probably the most productive hitter in the A.L., then he’d be a better candidate. But he quickly declined due to a back injury. By the early 1990s, he was below-average as an offensive first baseman. Yeah, he won 9 Gold Gloves, but a first baseman has to be much better offensively to get into the Hall. I really don’t understand why anyone would vote for him. Mattingly’s career stats can be seen here.

Mark McGwire – So McGwire has 583 career home runs, he had that record-breaking 70 home run season in 1998, and he hit 65 in 1999. And that’s great, but he did it all while on steroids. And he’s always lied about it. Even now, he has pleaded “the fifth” but he has never come clean with the public about his steroid usage. No player symbolizes all that was wrong with baseball during the steroid era more than McGwire. “Shoeless” Joe Jackson and Pete Rose are not in the Hall of Fame because their involvement with gambling damaged the integrity of the game. McGwire and other known steroid users also damaged the integrity of the game, and because of that they should not be honored in the Hall of Fame. Also, I find it interesting that McGwire only had 1,626 career hits. That means that 36% of his hits were home runs. Just imagine what type of player he would have been without chemical enhancement. McGwire’s career stats can be seen here.

Jack Morris – Morris has a lot going for him as a candidate. He did win more games than any other pitcher during the decade of the 1980s, and we all remember his brilliant performances in the 1984 and 1991 World Series. Still, he didn’t come very close to 300 wins (he had 254). What kills his candidacy for me is his 3.90 career ERA during a favorable era for pitchers. The league ERA during Morris’ career was 4.08, so he wasn’t much better than average. Morris certainly had a great career, but he falls short of the Hall of Fame standards in my mind. Morris’ career stats can be seen here.

Dale Murphy – Murphy is closer to a Hall of Famer than most in this group. From 1980 – 1987, there was no better offensive player in the National League. He was MVP in 1982 and 1983, but I think that his best season was in 1987 when he hit 44 home runs with a .997 OPS. Unfortunately, Murphy’s numbers fell off a cliff after 1987. If he had even come close to his pre-1987 numbers between 1988 – 1993, then he’d probably already be in the Hall. But his career batting average declined to .265 and he hit 398 home runs. For someone whose main skill was power, 400 home runs is necessary to get into the Hall of Fame. He also only had 2,111 hits. Murphy’s career stats can be seen here.

Dave Parker – I didn’t get to watch Parker until the late 1980s, so I missed his peak years with Pittsburgh in the 1970s. Looking at his numbers, it’s clear that Parker was an elite player from 1975 – 1979. Then he had some great years for Cincinnati in 1985 and 1986, and he was very productive as a DH in the A.L. in 1989 and 1990. But in between those years, Parker’s numbers were far from a Hall of Fame level. Ultimately, he falls short because as a power hitter he only hit 339 home runs. He had a good batting average (.290), but his .339 OBP shows that he didn’t walk much. Parker’s career stats can be seen here.

Jim Rice – This is Rice’s last year on the ballot and he has a lot of writers supporting him. He almost got in last year and it may be likely that he’s voted in this year. But he doesn’t deserve to be in the Hall. I think the fact that he played for Boston, and the media has been glorifying Red Sox Bandwagnation in recent years, is what’s driving his support. Sure, Rice was one of the top offensive players in the A.L. between 1975 – 1979, and he had some great years in the mid-1980s, but like Mattingly, Murphy, and Parker, his peak was not long enough for him to get into the Hall. His main skill, and really his only great skill, was his power. Yet, Rice fell short of 400 home runs with 382. Yes, I know that offensive numbers were down in the late 1970s and 1980s, but I still expect Hall of Famers from that era to have 400 home runs if they’re going in as a power hitter. Dave Winfield and Andre Dawson hit over 400, and Reggie Jackson, Mike Schmidt, and Eddie Murray all hit 500 home runs in the same era. Even Dave Kingman hit 442, and he’s nowhere near the Hall of Fame. Rice is often compared to Hall of Famers like Orlando Cepeda and Tony Perez, but even those guys have weak Hall of Fame credentials. If you’re going into the Hall of Fame, your numbers should be comparable to some of the best Hall of Famers, not the weaker ones. Rice falls short, and he’ll lower the Hall of Fame standards if he gets in. Rice’s career stats can be seen here.

Matt Williams – He’s the only first timer in this group. I don’t think he’ll ever get in, but he merits some consideration because he was a third baseman and his career numbers look very good for a third baseman. There are too few third basemen in the Hall of Fame, and Williams was one of the greatest offensive third basemen of all-time. His best years encompassed the entire decade of the 1990s, 1990 – 1999. Unfortunately for him, that was the steroid era, and Williams’ name did appear in the Mitchell Report last year (although it’s unclear if he used steroids during his peak years). That alone will keep him out of the Hall of Fame, and he might even drop off the ballot after this year. But was there any greater offensive third baseman during the decade of the 1990s? How much more support would Williams be getting if it hadn’t been for the strike in 1994? He was on pace to hit 61 home runs and tie Roger Maris’ record before the strike. The second problem for Williams is that his numbers completely fell off a cliff after 1999. Because his peak was not long enough, he fell short of 400 home runs and 2,000 hits. Williams’ career stats can be seen here.

The players in the third group are players who I feel could be worthy Hall of Famers, but I wouldn’t vote for them this year for various reasons:

David Cone – Cone is a very interesting case because I considered him to be a future Hall of Famer during his career, but his career numbers are not quite what I expect them to be to get into the Hall of Fame. Think about it; how many pitchers would you have rather had on your team between 1988 – 1999? Cone is right up there with Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson, in my opinion. But somehow he only won one Cy Young Award (1994) and he only won 194 games. His career ERA was 3.46, which was very good for his era, especially when you consider the effect of his horrible seasons in 2000 and 2001 on that ERA. And on the plus side, Cone’s 2,668 strikeouts rank 22nd all-time. Cone certainly isn’t an automatic Hall of Famer, but he might make it in eventually. As more time passes, Cone’s success as a pitcher during the steroid era will probably look more impressive, and if fewer pitchers have the longevity to reach 250 or 300 wins, Cone’s 194 might look better. Cone’s career stats can be seen here.

Tommy John – This is Tommy John’s last year on the ballot, and I still can’t quite make up my mind about him. His main qualification is his 288 career wins, but that was mostly due to him lasting a very, very long time (1963 – 1989). In the middle of his career (roughly 1977 – 1980), John was briefly one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that is a very short peak. For most of his career, he was very good, but not an elite pitcher. His 3.34 career ERA looks good until you realize that he pitched mostly during a great era for pitchers (the league ERA was 3.69). I can see him getting voted in by the veteran’s committee someday, but I don’t think he’ll get in this year. He truly is a borderline case. And no, having a surgery named after him is not a qualification for the Hall of Fame. John’s career stats can be seen here.

Tim Raines – There’s a lot to like about Tim Raines. I do think that he’s a worthy Hall of Famer, but he’s so far below Rickey Henderson’s level as the same type of player, that I’d leave him off the ballot this year and vote for him in a few years. Raines’ 808 stolen bases rank fifth all-time, and it’ll probably be a very long time before anyone else reaches 800 steals. Raines’ batting average (.294) , on-base percentage (.385), and stolen base total all make him Hall-worthy. From 1981 – 1987, there was no more exciting player in the National League than Raines. After 1987, Raines was still a very good, although not great, player. He’s hurt by the fact that he was not playing at a Hall of Fame level at any point during the 1990s. Still, when you look at how great he was in the 1980s, and his impressive career totals (especially the 808 steals), I think that it adds up to a player who should be in the Hall of Fame, just sometime after Rickey gets in. Raines’ career stats can be seen here.

Lee Smith – Smith retired as the all-time leader in saves with 478. But he was one of the first closers in an era in which closers were being used in a new way (usually one-inning appearances), which allowed him to amass more saves than past relievers. When he retired, everyone knew that it was only a matter of time before he would be passed on the all-time saves list, and Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera have both done that. In Smith’s favor, he was a very good closer for a very long time (1982 – 1995). But I’m not sure that he was ever dominant. If you look at closers who are in the Hall of Fame – Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Rich Gossage – they were all dominant pitchers. You knew the game was over when they’d enter the game in the 9th inning (or earlier). I never got that feeling from Smith. He’ll probably get into the Hall eventually even if he falls further down the all-time saves list because he was one of the first great “modern” closers, but I don’t think he should get in so soon after Sutter and Gossage. Smith’s career stats can be seen here.

And finally, here are the four players who would be on my Hall of Fame ballot this year:

RICKEY HENDERSON – Alphabetical order doesn’t matter here, and I’m using all capital letters for his name because Rickey is one of the greatest players of all-time and he’s head and shoulders above anyone else on the ballot. Seriously, anyone who does not vote for Rickey Henderson this year should have their right to vote for the Hall of Fame taken away from them. Let’s start with the fact that he’s the all-time leader in stolen bases and runs scored. His 1,406 stolen bases are 468 more than Lou Brock, who’s #2 on the list. His record may never be broken. He also has the single-season stolen base record with 130 (1982). He had 2,295 runs, also the all-time record. He has the all-time record for leadoff home runs (81). He retired with the all-time record for walks, but Barry Bonds broke that record. He had 3,055 hits. He was a 10-time All Star and won the A.L. MVP award in 1990. Also consider that he was a teammate of Jose Canseco for several years and Jose never mentioned him in connection to steroids. Rickey Henderson is the very definition of a Hall of Famer. Henderson’s amazing career stats can be seen here.

Bert Blyleven – It really is a travesty that Blyleven isn’t in the Hall of Fame yet. His career numbers are definitely Hall-worthy. 287 wins. 3.31 ERA (when the league average was 3.90). 1.198 career WHIP. 3,701 strikeouts, which ranked third on the all-time list when he retired; he’s now fifth. He also had 242 complete games and 60 shutouts – numbers which I’d be surprised to see any pitcher reach in the future. I’ve never heard a cogent argument for Blyleven not getting into the Hall of Fame. He needs to get in as soon as possible; his omission is glaring. Blyleven’s career stats can be seen here.

Andre Dawson – It’s also a travesty that Dawson isn’t in the Hall of Fame. It’s especially galling that that Rice has been getting more support than him. Let’s go through Dawson’s impressive credentials. 438 career home runs. 1,591 RBI. 2,774 hits and 314 stolen bases demonstrate that he was a multi-dimensional player. He was a great fielder too, winning 8 Gold Glove awards. He was an 8-time All Star, 1987 N.L. MVP, and he finished second in MVP voting two other times. Dawson was a true “five-tool” player and he was consistently good from 1977 – 1992. In addition, he played during an era where offensive stats were down across the board. He was always one of the top handful of hitters in baseball during his career. Dawson is very deserving of admission to Cooperstown. Dawson’s career stats can be seen here.

Alan Trammell – Trammell would already be in the Hall of Fame if it wasn’t for Cal Ripken. Trammell spent the majority of his career as the second best shortstop in the American League behind Ripken, and Ripken was so great that it wasn’t even close. Still, Trammell’s numbers are better than almost every shortstop who’s in the Hall of Fame. His career batting average was .285, he hit 185 home runs as a shortstop, he won 4 Gold Gloves, he was a 6-time All Star, and he was the World Series MVP in 1984. Many of the shortstops who played in the 1990s and today have surpassed Trammell’s offensive numbers, but that shouldn’t detract from the fact that Trammell was one of the greatest shortstops of his era and earlier eras. There’s no doubt in my mind that he deserves to be a Hall of Famer and he will be one day. Many people compare Trammell to his double-play partner, Lou Whitaker, but Trammell had the better career. Trammell’s career stats can be seen here.

So there you have it. I’m hoping to see Rickey Henderson, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, and Alan Trammell enshrined in Cooperstown in August 2009. We’ll find out who the new inductees will be on January 12. They’ll be joining Joe Gordon, who was voted in by the veteran’s committee. Writing this post was particularly fun since I got to watch all of these players during my lifetime of being a baseball fan. Feel free to argue and debate any of the players on the ballot with me. I’m looking forward to some good discussion!

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I agree with 3 of your 4 inductees, but I don’t think Trammell will make the cut this year or any other year. I enjoyed watching him play but I never once thought he was the best short stop in the league during his career. I am pretty surprised that you don’t think Mark Grace will get 1 vote – I am hoping het gets enough to remain on the ballot next year.

I agree with you for the most part, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Mark Grace hangs out on the ballot for a few years. I don’t think he’ll ever get in, but I do think he was popular enough on a big market team to stay on the ballot.

I really hope that Jim Rice gets in. I didn’t start watching baseball until 86 or so, and even then I was too young to know who was who, but over the years since I’ve read a lot about Mr. Rice. He’s very deserving of enshrinement in the Hall and this is his last chance.

Blyleven is another one that should be in, and hopefully will this year.

I don’t know about Alan Trammell though. He should be, but as I’ve said before, I don’t know that he got enough national coverage in Detroit for enough people to see him play. The HoF is as much as anything else a popularity contest.

Lee Smith will get a shot at it, but I think it’ll be a while before we see any full time closers in the hall. Eckersley’s in, and I’m pretty confident that Smoltz’ll be a first ballot HoF’er; but they had long, effective careers as starters before converting to closer. Lee Smith was a closer, he started six games his entire career. He’s a Hall of Famer for sure, but not yet.

There’s no point in mentioning Rickey. He may not get 100% but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t come away from this with the highest vote percentage in history. He was probably my favorite player of the 80s.

Very good article. I always thought that Trammell was going into the Hall and am kind of surprised that he appears to be a second thought at this point.

I think Raines should easily be a HOF (of course I’m biased as an ex-Expos fan). One thing that is overlooked is that Raines not only stole a lot of bases, he did so with alarming success (86% highest of all time, 5% higher than Rickey). I think Dawson, while being a bigger “star” is a bit more borderline, due to his reputation (maybe undeserved) as being a choker.

Brian or Ben – what is one valid reason why anyone would vote for Mark Grace? Playing on a big market team is not a reason. Daryle Ward played for the Cubs this year; is he a Hall of Famer too?

Ben – I’m curious what you’ve read about Rice that makes him worthy of enshrinement? What did I miss by looking at his stats?

The Hall might be a popularity contest for the writers but it should not be.

Hoiles – Great point about Raines’ steal percentage. That is a huge reason why he should be in the Hall. When did Dawson choke? I don’t really remember him being a choke artist. Was it in the 1989 playoffs?

Trammell will have to wait even longer. I can’t help but think that the writers are going to use the shortstops of the 1990’s particularly one Derek Jeter as their new “Gold Standard” for a HOF shortstop. Trammell will perhaps start to get consideration once his time on the ballot starts to run out, or ESPN starts to make a case for him.

As for a reason to vote for Grace – he had more hits than anyone in the 1990’s. I think Gracy is a member of the Hall of Very Good not HOF.

Dawson didn’t have a good track record in the post-season, 0.186 and 0 RBI in the ’81 post-season. It’s probably something more noticed by fans of the Expos or Cubs than anyone else. That said, it’s hard to base a player’s 20-year career on 59 at-bats. Dawson was, legitimately, one of the star players throughout the 80s and I would expect him to eventually get in, though not necessarily this year.

I don’t really have an argument for Grace getting a few votes. I just think he was too popular and honestly too good not to get a few. I wouldn’t vote for him and I certainly don’t think he’s Hall worthy, but I will be surprised if he doesn’t get a vote or two.

The more I think about it though, I think I’m wrong about staying on the ballot for a few years, but we’ll see.

Jim Rice… I don’t know, he was so highly regarded by other players. Maybe just reading about him and never having seen him play (I’m 27) skews my perception of him. His stats don’t jump out at you like Aaron or Mays, but he was a very good player for a long time.

Dave- Surely there will be a writer from Chicago to give Grace a vote. As we all have read many times in the last 2 weeks, Grace led the majors in hits in the 1990’s. Also, don’t forget that he carried the Cubs in the 1989 playoffs. Although they lost, he became a national star during that series.

Obviously, I would love for The Hawk to finally get in, but I have a feeling it may just be Henderson and Rice this year. The good ole boys don’t like to induct more than 1 or 2 people a year. To be honest, I won’t be too sad, because I know he’ll get in eventually. And his cards have been on the upswing lately because of the imminence of the Hall voting. If he doesn’t get in till 2010, it’ll give me another year to pick up his autos and patches at decent prices.

The fact that Mark Grace had more hits than anyone in the 1990s is very interesting – I never would have guessed that. If he had gotten closer to 3,000 hits (he had 2,445) he’d be a better candidate. But he didn’t and his power numbers were way below average for a corner infielder.

With Rice, I do remember watching him play in the late 1980s, and he just didn’t seem like a huge star to me. He wasn’t a much bigger star than his teammate Dwight Evans, who is nowhere near the Hall of Fame. I might think differently if I was old enough to remember the late 1970s and early 1980s, but even with those great years that he had, I don’t think he was great for a long enough time to get into the Hall.

One more thing – Henderson, Blyleven, Dawson, and Trammell are the guys who I would vote for, but unfortunately I don’t think they’re all going to get in. It’ll either be only Henderson who gets in, or it’ll be Henderson and Rice – and I obviously disagree with that.

Rice deserves to get in just as much so as Dawson IMO. Jim Rice had a career batting average 20 points higher, higher home run, RBI, runs scored, OBP, and slugging averages per season- with another 5 years to his career (only 16 in comparison to Dawson’s 21) he would have easily passed Dawson in those career statistics. Also, Rice was very consistent over the middle 14-year period of his career. The five-tool system is overrated in my opinion and Rice was still respectable at defense. Dawson only really trumps him in there with his gold gloves and speed, the latter which waned considerably towards the latter half of his career.

All things said I believe that Dawson shouldn’t get in without Rice, because they both have the credentials. Thanks for sharing your opinions.