Roelof Van Ark, chief executive of the rail authority, wrote that the model was valid, "a sound tool for use in high-speed rail planning." He said there was "no foundation" for the institute's conclusion that the model was useless for predicting the bullet train's bottom line.

SHARPEST CRITIQUE

Of the critiques, the sharpest may have been the one from the legislative analyst. Delivered in May, as lawmakers struggled to close a multi-billion dollar deficit, the report recommended slashing the rail authority's budget from $192 million to $7 million.

Retired Judge Quentin Kopp, a former San Francisco lawmaker, former chairman of the rail authority and long-time advocate of the project, said he deeply resented the report: It was "devoid of data, devoid of informational fact, embarrassing," he said. Worse, it seemed to ignore the benefits that a completed rail system would bring to California.

So far, at least, neither lawmakers nor the governor have taken the axe to the rail authority's budget. Another crucial decision point comes next year, when the legislature must authorize selling rail bonds so construction can get underway.

Lockyer, the state treasurer, would like to head that off. In an interview, he ticked off his concerns.

"I think the federal funding is too speculative," he said. "I think the likelihood of significant private capital is questionable." He said he was "disappointed" in the business plan, which he called undisciplined and nonsensical.

Meanwhile, the state is gearing back on its debt load to ease pressure on the budget. In this tough economic environment, it's not easy to justify borrowing billions for high speed rail, Lockyer said.

"I love the idea -- the idea is bold," he said of the project. "It's just that there are a lot of good questions that need to be answered before an investment of this magnitude gets made."

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