These are times that test the nerves and resolve for fans of
Mexico's national men's soccer team as it heads into a crucial match Friday
night against Panama. A loss could mean the unthinkable: Mexico not appearing
in next year's FIFA World Cup in Brazil.

And that would be stunning not
only to the team and its fans but to hand-wringing soccer executives at
Oregon-based Nike and Adidas, which keeps its North American headquarters in
Portland. Both companies know that World Cup merchandise sales would suffer if
Mexico doesn't end up with one of the 32 places in the world's most-watched
sporting event.

Nike, Adidas and Puma all build an
increase in soccer-related sales into their budget forecasts – from team
jerseys to shoes – in World Cup years. Sports footwear and apparel brands
experience the same bump during Olympic years and, to a lesser extent, during
regional sports tournaments, such as soccer's Euro Cup.

But Mexico, in particular, is
important to Nike and Adidas and other companies that have a financial interest
in the World Cup.

The stakes are high, but rest
easy, fans of Mexico's national team, says Ernesto Bruce, Adidas soccer
director for North America.

"This game against Panama is
extremely important," said Bruce, who is based at the Adidas America
headquarters in Portland. "We are confident (Mexico) will qualify. No matter
what happens, we are standing by the Mexican national team."

A win by Mexico Friday night is
arguably more import to Adidas than to Nike. Adidas outfits the men's national
team, and the Mexican team is one of Adidas' most prominent federations along
with Spain – the FIFA's No. 1-ranked team – second-ranked Argentina and
third-ranked Germany. Adidas' contract with Mexico began in 2007 and expires in
December 2014.

For Nike, the company's interest is mainly
the same as it has for any association with an event or an athlete. About half of the Mexico national team wears Nike cleats including forward Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez Balcázar and striker Giovanni
Dos Santos.

As the boilerplate says in the Nike's 2013 Annual
Report: "...poor performance by our endorsers...could adversely affect our brand
and result in decreased sales of our products."

Nike, in a statement,
acknowledged the importance of Friday's match but sought a long-term
perspective.

"We use the opportunity of
global sports events like the World Cup, Olympics and Euro Champs to highlight
new product innovations," the written statement says. "Although the game
against Panama is a big match for the national team, our ongoing partnerships
with club teams and players will continue to drive our brand and business with
soccer players and fans in Mexico and around the world for the long-term."

Bruce also said Adidas' soccer
leadership has not seriously addressed a scenario in which Mexico does not
qualify.

"We have no plans of saying, 'if
they couldn't, wouldn't, what are we going to do?'" Bruce said. "When that comes up, our plans are to move
forward with them qualifying."

With more than 33 million people
in the United State identifying themselves as Mexican-American, the interest in
the Mexico national team is acute. Adidas contends that just as many Mexican national
jerseys were sold in the United State during the 2010 World Cup as were jerseys
of the U.S. team, which is outfitted by Nike. Nike, through a spokesperson,
declined to comment on the assertion.

"We have a huge quantity of
Mexican team product that are Adidas-branded that are going across the world,"
Bruce said.

Soccer was a nearly $2 billion
business for Nike in the past fiscal year, up 4 percent compared to the
previous year. At Adidas, the company announced in June it expected to generate
2 billion Euros – roughly $2.7 billion – in soccer sales in 2014 and that the
World Cup "will be the perfect stage to showcase adidas as the clear number one
football brand."

The two brands are running
virtually neck and neck in terms of soccer gear and apparel sales, though
Adidas holds a slight edge, said Paul Swinand, a Morningstar analyst, who studied
the two brands' soccer battle extensively two years ago.

"Adidas was still in the lead,"
Swinand said, "but it was amazing how Nike had come up after the (2010) World
Cup" in market share.

The fate of the Mexican team
also might be felt in television viewership.

McClatchy News Service reported
in September that ESPN, the sports network, calculated that Mexican businesses
would lose $600 million if the team didn't play in the World Cup. The losses
include those for the two major television networks, Televisa and TV Azteca, as
well as sponsors who already have contracted to buy advertising.

The McClatchy story also noted
losses could be expected in Mexico for bars, restaurants and other
businesses that get a World Cup boost.

The United States and Costa Rica
have claimed two of the three automatic qualifying berths from the North
American, Caribbean and Central American region. Honduras holds the third
automatic spot with 11 points. Panama and Mexico have eight points and Jamaica
has four. The fourth-place team in the group faces a playoff against New
Zealand for a spot in Brazil.

How did Mexico, always one of
the world's most competitive soccer teams and gold medal winners at last year's Olympic Games, find itself in this situation? Soccer
authorities have noted that while the team is talented, its players lack
experience competing on a global stage. Perhaps a coaching change will help.
Mexico's previous head coach, Jose Manuel "El
Chepo" de la Torre, was sacked after a loss to Honduras in
September. The debut for new head coach Victor
Manuel Vucetich is Friday night.