Michigan

NASCAR Trading Paint: Kobalt Tools 500 picks

AP File PhotoHalf the panelists say Jimmie Johnson will take a spin down Victory Lane this weekend at Phoenix.

Welcome to Trading Paint, a weekly entry where a statewide panel of four auto racing "experts" will make picks on the NASCAR Sprint Cup races. This week: Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500 at Phoenix International Raceway in Phoenix, Ariz.

The rules:1. A panelist can only pick a driver five times total for the season.2. Standings will be calculated each week, with panelists awarded the actual points their drivers earned.

Jeff Bleiler -- Jackson Citizen PatriotBelieve it or not, it's November and Jimmie Johnson is in trouble. The recent swapping out of his pit crew for that of Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin leap-frogging him in the standings with just two races remaining give other drivers hope.

Johnson is not invincible in the Chase. I, on the other hand, have been quite mortal.

On to Phoenix ...

Winner: Jeff Gordon -- How about that? Jimmie Johnson's pit crew shows its stuff and propels Gordon to victory. Wouldn't that be something?

No chance: Jeff Burton -- He was 25th at Phoenix last year and will be distracted because of his feud with Gordon last week.

Don't be surprised if ... Johnson has the lead heading into the final race at Homestead. He was third at Phoenix earlier this year and Hamlin was a pretty pedestrian 30th. Similar results this weekend would be disastrous for Hamlin.

No chance: Kurt Busch -- Busch has been the biggest disappointment of the Chase.

Don't be surprised if ... Mark Martin wins his first race of the season. He has top-five finishes in four of his past five Phoenix starts.

Mike Pryson -- Jackson Citizen PatriotSo, is that panic we're seeing out of the Jimmie Johnson camp this week?

You don't steal your teammates' crew unless you've lost confidence in your own crew. Johnson swapping crews with Jeff Gordon is the first real sign that Superman might be human after all.

On to Phoenix ...

Winner: Mark Martin -- Surprise, the old guy is going to steal one this week. With friction between the Johnson and Gordon camps, teammate Martin will steal the thunder while the boys bicker. Martin loves this place. He has four top-five finishes in a row, including a win in 2009. Time for a non-Chaser to chase one down.

No chance: Kyle Busch -- The only thing more fun than watching Johnson and Denny Hamlin duel for the title is waiting to see what Kyle Busch will do to get fined or penalized. Chances are he won't leave Phoenix without being back on NASCAR's double-secret-probation list.

Don't be surprised if ... Johnson and Hamlin finish in the top five. Over the past six races, they each have an average finish of 4.83. NASCAR would love to see them within 20 to 30 points heading into Homestead. This would be a great week for that little Frenchman, "Mr. Debris" to make a few odd appearances to help keep things close.

They still draw 90,000 at Michigan International Speedway, I'm guessing a few would shell out $29.95 to see Jeff Gordon and Jeff Burton in a steel cage match, or Kyle Busch against NASCAR president Mike Helton.

As for the championship match, it's still a three-way fight between Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson.

Winner: Jimmie Johnson -- I've gone with a few longshots during the Chase, but I'll get back to the basics for the final two races. Johnson has four wins and eight top-five finishes in the past eight races at Phoenix. After last week's pit road drama, the No. 48 team has something to prove.

No chance: Kevin Harvick -- This could be the end of the road for Harvick's title hopes. His average finish is 15th despite sweeping the Phoenix races in 2006. In comparison, Johnson never has finished lower than 15th.

Don't be surprised if ... one of the "veterans" wins at Phoenix. Mark Martin, Jeff Burton and Jeff Gordon have combined for five wins and 47 career top-10 finishes there. With the Chase down to three legitimate contenders, it's easy to forget the other 40 cars on the track. This could be the week that changes.