Airbus sees demand for 26,000 new aircraft over 20 years

13 December, 2010

SOURCE: Air Transport Intelligence news

BY: Max Kingsley-Jones

Toulouse

Airbus has increased its long-term demand forecast by 3.6% due to a perceived rise in demand for single-aisle aircraft, and remains convinced that over 1,700 A380-sized aircraft will be required over the next 20 years.

The airframer presented its 2010 Global Market Forecast (GMF) today in Toulouse. It predicts that some 25,850 new airliners (including 870 freighters) will be delivered over the next 20 years, worth $3.2 trillion.

This compares with 24,951 aircraft worth $3.1 trillion in its last forecast, published in September 2009.

The bulk of the demand in its forecast is for the single-aisles where its new A320 New Engine Option family will compete from 2016. It puts long-term demand in this category at 17,900 units, around 1,000 greater than it forecast a year ago.

The airframer's forecasts in other categories are similar to last year's GMF.

It expects twin-aisle demand will reach 6,240 units through to 2029 (including freighters), while the very large aircraft sector (i.e A380s) will account for 1,700 deliveries, including 1,300 passenger aircraft and 400 freighters.

Although VLA deliveries only account for 7% of the total units, their high list price puts the category at 18% by value.