Open Primaries

Sunday, July 04, 2010

Happy Independence Day 2010!

INDEPENDENT VOTERS

Rougher Road for Democrats Without Obama Atop Ticket (By JEFF ZELENY, NY Times) If Republicans are to win control of the House, party leaders are relying on candidates like Mr. Chabot to whittle away the 39-seat Democratic majority. Their strategy is rooted in the belief that the Republican base is significantly more energized than it was two years ago, particularly because of the influence of Tea Party activists and at least a share of independent voters who have soured on the leadership of Democrats.

Tea partiers ascend in many states - With help from Palin and Tea Party Express, anti-government rhetoricians threaten incumbents (BY MICHAEL R. BLOOD, ASSOCIATED PRESS, Salon)

Surprise, surprise: Tea Partyers are Republicans (EJ Dionne, Washington Post/Post Partisan) For some months now, I have been battling against the idea that the Tea Party movement is some brand-new thing in American politics, an independent movement akin to the rebellion led by Ross Perot in the 1990s. Tea Party people, I have been arguing, are simply right-wing Republicans organized under a new banner.

Democrats shaping battle plan against Republicans for November (By Dan Balz, Washington Post Staff Writer ) Obama's strategists have been analyzing the state of the electorate and have concluded that the path for Democrats is treacherous but that there is room for improvement before November. They must woo back some independent voters who have defected since 2008 while boosting turnout beyond historical patterns for midterm elections among the millions of new or irregular voters who were energized by Obama's campaign.

Voting Intentions Even, Turnout Indicators Favor GOP (Pew Research) More than half of independent voters (55%) who back the Republican candidate in their district are more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year; that compares with 36% of independents who prefer the Democratic candidate. While 63% of independent voters who favor the GOP candidate are closely following news about the election, just 48% of independents who support the Democratic candidate say the same. And 77% of independent voters who support a Republican say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 62% of independents who back Democrat.

Marist poll: Half of voters say Obama a disappointment (Poughkeepsie Journal) While there has been little change among Democrats and Republicans, dissatisfaction has grown among independent voters. Nearly six in ten — 58 percent — say Obama has disappointed them, and 34 percent view the president as meeting their expectations or going above them and 8 percent are unsure.

Is the Democratic Majority Still Emerging or Slipping Away? (Ari Berman, The Nation) Yet that theory was once again challenged in 2009 and early 2010, as Republicans won major gubenatorial and Senate elections in three states—Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts—that Obama won handily. In these elections, Obama’s “coalition of the ascendant” either failed to turn out in sufficient numbers or key blocs, like independent voters and younger professionals, defected to the GOP.

Outreach to Democrats gives Charlie Crist a balancing act (BY ADAM SMITH, ST. PETERSBURG TIMES, Miami Herald) Crist is counting on overwhelming support from independent voters and strong support from Democrats, but also he can't afford to alienate too many Republicans. Independents are expected to make up no more than 15 percent of the electorate, after all, while Republicans consistently have the strongest turnout in nonpresidential election years.