Thursday, December 21, 2017

Adam Lind is Dead. Love Live Matt Adams

The Nats are successfully recreating their team from the end of 2017. Kintzler is back meaning the 7-8-9 from the pen is returning. And now Matt Adams has come in and replaced Adam Lind as the first big lefty bat off the bench.

Who is Matt Adams? Short answer is he's a lefty first baseman who has hit well but can't hit LHP, who isn't well regarded in the field. He's had been relegated to back-up play for most of the past few years but an injury to Freddie Freeman opened up full time work. The 131 games he played last year being the second most of his career. If this sounds familiar it's because Adam Lind was a lefty first baseman who had hit well but couldn't hit LHP, who wasn't well
regarded in the field and had been relegated to back-up play for some of the past few years.

There's a general sense that Matt Adams is a better fielder than Lind was. There's also a general feeling that Lind is more of a professional hitter, more likely to work a walk or put the ball in play than Adams is. But these are niggling things. For a back-up/platoon 1B Adams should be every bit as good as Lind. Both these guys are worthy starters vs RHP and are great bench players.

The Nats won 97 games last year and while part of that was the NL East, a lot of that was a roster that was arguably at it's peak at the end of the year. So recreating it isn't the worst idea. Is it enough? Well it wasn't last year but if you aren't for going "ALL IN" for the sake of trying everything, I don't see how you can ask for more than what they are doing now. Get a Stephen Drew replacement and a cheap but ok 5th starter and you'd have to expect another 90+ win season, NL East title, and crack at breaking through. (barring injuries/surprises) of course

In other news - Tommy Milone is back. You may remember him as one of the "Gio 4" sent to Oakland for Gonzalez. Milone stands now as the 2nd most successful of the bunch, three of which turned into useful players.* Milone had a handful of decent seasons filling the back of the rotation for the A's and Twins. However he's been terrible the past two years and there isn't much for him to fall back on. He doesn't have strikeout stuff and is not a master of control. His "success" came from being not particularly bad at any specific things. That's a tightrope walk that can't be maintained and it wasn't. He's organizational filler and nothing more. *Derek Norris was a legit good C for a few seasons before suddenly crashing. Brad Peacock struggled to find himself until 2016 when he emerged as a valuable swingman / spot starter for the Astros. The fourth man the Nats brought back very quickly and has not made a name for himself, Mr. Alan Jervicious Cole (may not be his real name). Still he was the youngest of the bunch and almost was useful last year.

I was thinking that Lind had to be a better pinch hitter, but it's not really the case - it's similar value with Adams' power and lessoldery mitigating Lind's contact and devilyouknowness. So who is the Kendrick clone gonna be? Phillips? Reyes? Utley? I'll say minor league deal for Alcides Escobar.

Adams' numbers are remarkably close to Lind's. I am very happy with this signing and the return of Kintzler. Phillips, Reyes, Utley clones for Kendrick??? - you have to be joking. None of these guys are anywhere close.

Chas R - I'd bet it'll happen closer to the end of January. There are usually 2 IF replacements at least to start the year (last year Drew and Difo were on OD), I'd doubly expect a signing with Murphy hurting. Just have to see if Difo is Plan A or B. I'll stick with Lackey as my guess

blovy8 - Honestly I think Kendrick is going to be 2018 Difo and 2017 Difo will be some garbage player on a minor league deal

Anon - I don't disagree on "non of them are Kendrick" but that's bc Kendrick is a 34 yo starter that the Nats happened to pick-up at the trade deadline to play all over. You can't sign someone like him to play the bench (unless you are willing to pay). That's why I think some garbage player and look for a trade if nec later in the year. That person will be the new Kendrick

Davis signed with Colorado. I don't really understand why a pitcher would willingly pitch half of their games at Coor's Field. Denny Neagle, Mike Hampton, etc. I understood Holland last year because of his situation and familiarity with the bullpen coach. I don't understand Davis going there at all.

Yeah, that's literally a record contract for a relief pitcher. If he's actually good there (see, eg., first-half Holland and others in their 'pen), then there's even a fourth-year option for $15M more. If he stinks it up, he can still blame Coors and probably can get a deal from someone after he's through.

Maybe he's just regressed. (How old is he? Never mind.) Here are my burning hot-stove questions: What is the status of legal wrangling with respect to MASN? Something tells me we must be grinding toward finality. Will this be the settlement year? If so, what are the likely terms, and how have they changed in light of MASN's burgeoning lump sum obligation? Regarding the roster: This year's team is set, but next year's has glaring holes. Are the Nats facing salary cap hell if they do sign BRYCE? As with Dusty, is there a question whether Bryce is temperamentally equipped to lead the team in the post season? (Last year he got the participation trophy.) If we don't re-sign him, who else should we be looking for in the 2019 FA market. (maybe no one, if Robles breaks out)? What is Rendon's FA value, and statistically would it make more sense to sign him than Bryce? Harppy New Year!