South Shore crucial to Baker election hopes

South Shore Republicans and political analysts say GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker should improve on his 2010 total, when he got the most votes in 20 South Shore towns.

Lane Lambert The Patriot Ledger @llambert_ledger

Charlie Baker didn’t say it, but Sen. Robert Hedlund of Weymouth and state Republican Party chairwoman Kirsten Hughes of Quincy did.

They say the South Shore will be a crucial part of the GOP gubernatorial candidate’s election base.

In an interview Thursday in Randolph, the former Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO would only say “we did well on the South Shore” when he ran against Gov. Deval Patrick of Milton in 2010.

“Every part of the state is important. I’m chasing them all,” Baker said, after he spoke at a South Shore Chamber of Commerce breakfast at Lombardo’s.

Baker’s 2010 running mate, Richard Tisei, is again running against 6th District Democratic Congressman John Tierney, and Hughes said that will help Baker.

Hedlund went farther. “He’ll carry the South Shore,” Hedlund said.

UMass-Boston political science professor Paul Watanabe of Weymouth said the South Shore is “very important” for Baker’s election chance.

Watanabe said Baker will probably improve on his 2010 statewide vote, in part because he won’t be facing a Democratic incumbent.

“Running against Deval Patrick was a hard pull,” Watanabe said of 2010.

Attorney General Martha Coakley, State Treasurer Steve Grossman and three others are vying for the Democratic nomination, ahead of the party convention in June. Coakley, the frontrunner, has a solid lead over Baker in early opinion polls.

Whoever Baker faces, Watanabe said the South Shore’s tendency to vote for moderate Republicans will help Baker “do at least as well” as he did here the first time he ran for governor.

Baker did indeed do well on the South Shore in 2010. In a three-way race with Patrick and independent then-State Treasurer Tim Cahill of Quincy, Baker was the top vote-getter in 20 Norfolk and Plymouth towns.

He got more votes than Patrick and Cahill combined in Cohasset, Marshfield, Norwell, Scituate and four other towns.

Baker was in full campaign form at Lombardo’s, telling a full room of executives, managers and entrepreneurs that the state needs “a sense of purpose,” including a renewed focus on job creation.

Five days after he was nominated at the Massachusetts GOP convention, Baker said “we get distracted and take too long” to push ahead on the state’s economic development.

Baker never mentioned Patrick by name. But his comments amounted to a report card on the Patrick administration’s two terms.

His sharpest criticism was aimed at the state Health Connector’s botched insurance exchange website, which may not be fixed until 2015 and has left thousands of residents without permanent coverage.

Baker said he favors a higher state minimum wage close to the $10.50 an hour that’s been proposed on a ballot question and in the Legislature. But he said it shouldn’t be indexed for inflation and should be combined with a small business tax credit to help offset higher payroll costs.