First Signs of Recession Seen in US Macro Data

The US labor market has softened throughout February and March and the private sector has struggled amidst falling profits, and several industries, including energy, utilities, financial services and manufacturing underperformed in Q1, providing evidence for a broader recession coming. Kristian Rouz — After stock markets posted major declines earlier this year, and corporate earnings were slashed by an unlucky combination of overseas risks and domestic policies for at least two quarters straight,

the US economy might be heading for an overall recession, and recent labor market data has provided early evidence of such a scenario being indeed possible. The pace of US employment, previously at an optimistic 200,000 new payrolls per month, has started losing steam in recent weeks, as indicated by temporary employment rolling off its late 2015 peak in Q1 this year. FULL REPORT