by Bill O’Grady

As the United Kingdom continues on its path to withdraw from the European Union, a key element that needs to be considered is the border issue in Ireland. The Northern Ireland/Ireland frontier is the only border that would be directly affected by Brexit. The rest of the U.K. is an island, although border checks would be required at the Chunnel and at U.K. ports. However, the Irish border has broader geopolitical implications beyond just a border issue.

In Part I of this report, we will begin by introducing the importance of Ireland to Britain’s geopolitics and how this led to the effective British colonization of Ireland. A short history of British/Irish relations will follow. Next week, in Part II, we will examine the Good Friday Agreement and analyze the problems that Brexit brings. As always, we will conclude with market ramifications.

These reports were prepared by Confluence Investment Management LLC and reflect the current opinion of the authors. Opinions expressed are current as of the date shown and are based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable. Opinions and forward-looking statements expressed are subject to change. This is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Information provided in this report is for educational and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as individualized investment advice or a recommendation. Investments or strategies discussed may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances.

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