Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary. As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types. A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

On my keeper team (16 team league) I have Charles, Forsett, D Brown and J Harrison. If 2 of those guys become the feature backs for their teams, I’ll be golden. Only if Brown didn’t get injured this year, I wonder where Addai would be… What are my chances?

@Cheese: Well, Charles has it wrapped up. Brown will take the longest, but probably is second as far as long term potential. Forsett and Harrison will both get a lot of work. Just hope that Seattle doesn’t go after a veteran which I kind of doubt they do. I like all 4.

Tyrell Sutton! Carolina is talking about trading away one of there backs. Personally I don’t see Williams or Stewart leaving this system anytime soon. Sutton proved last year he could be a star back if given chance. Don’t be surprised to see sutton be traded and make an impact for his new team immediately!

I wrote this to a local sports radio talk show host earlier this year. Sorry for the tenses and personal pronouns.

As an avid Vikings fan for years, well as many years as a 22 year old kid can have watching the Vikings, I have had the anguish of watching the ’98, ’01, and now the ’10 playoff debacles. Due to my schedule, I rarely get to listen to your show (I usually get to listen to the Power Trip), but when I do, I really enjoy listening to your perspectives and your guests. I know this going to be a long rant, but I’d appreciate knowing what you think of what I have done.

One of the things that is bothering me more than ever is the attention Adrian Peterson’s fumbles are getting. Now, I feel like you did a comparison of great running backs and the percentage of caries they had per fumble a few weeks back (noting specifically the use of Walter Payton). Going from that basis, I did a brief research project and looked back at some great, hall of fame, running backs that have had quite a few fumbles in a season. For example, out of Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, OJ Simpson, and Walter Payton, only OJ Simpson had fewer fumbles in his first three years than Peterson had. However, Peterson had more carries than Simpson. In the season that Dickerson had 2105 yards, he also fumbled 14 times.

Eric Dickerson had 37 fumbles in his first three years on 1153 touches (92 of those on receptions). He had 78 career fumbles on 3277 touches. 1st three years fumbling rate (fumbles divided by carries) 3.2% fumble rate | Career fumbling Rate: 2.4%

Tony Dorsett had 28 fumbles in his first three years on 859 touches (111 of those on receptions). He had 90 career fumbles on 3334 touches. 1st three years fumbling rate: 3.3% | Career fumbling Rate: 2.7%

Marcus Allen had 27 fumbles in his first three years on 871 touches (170 of those on receptions). He had 65 career fumbles on 3609 touches (587 of those on receptions). 1st three years fumbling rate: 3.1% | Career fumbling Rate: 1.8%

OJ Simpson had 17 fumbles in his first three years on 545 touches (61 of those on receptions). He had 62 career fumbles on 2607 touches (203 receptions). He didn’t start getting a lot of carries until his fourth year. 1st three years fumbling rate: 3.1% | Career fumbling rate: 2.4%

Walter Payton had 30 fumbles in his first three years on 921 touches (75 of those on receptions). He had 86 career fumbles on 4330 touches (492 on receptions). 1st three years fumbling rate: 3.3% | Career fumbling Rate: 2.0%

Adrian Peterson has 20 fumbles in his first three years on 998 touches (83 of those on receptions). 1st three years fumbling rate and career fumbling rate: 2.0%

Now, I know picking and choosing running backs that have a lot of fumbles isn’t a fair game. But just to be fair, lets look at LaDainian Tomlinson who has a reputation for not fumbling.

LT had 13 fumbles in his first three years in the league on 1262 touches (238 of those on receptions). He has 27 career fumbles on 3410 touches (530 of those on receptions). 1st three years fumbling rate: 1%| Career Fumbling Rate: .8%

Emmitt Smith had 19 fumbles in his first three years on 1113 touches (132 of those on receptions). He has 61 career fumbles on 4924 touches (515 on receptions). 1st three years fumbling rate: 1.7% | Career fumbling rate: 1.2%

These differences are significant. However, something to notice, after the first three years, career rates are half a percentage point lower. Meaning that it would be safe to assume that Peterson should have reduced fumbling rates for the remaining of his career. Obviously, these are just regular season fumbling numbers. Another thing to note, LT, Dickerson, and Smith are the only backs here that had more touches than Peterson has in his first three years in the league. Just for giggles, Look what Terrell Davis did for his beginning of his career (very similar to AP, minus 6 fumbles).

The media, rubes, and fans are making it seem that Peterson is the only back that ever has fumbled in his career. True, his fumbles against the Saints were terrible, his running style may induce a few more fumbles, but how many backs run like him in the league? Two maybe three (Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, pre-2008 LT/Larry Johnson)? Ray Rice, DeAnglo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are threats in their own right, but AP is rivaled by only a select couple of contemporary running backs. I am tired of hear how he should be benched, traded, or even how he is a “terrible” back.

Shonn Greene had “Bust” written all over him. Sure, he’ll get a lot more carries than last year. But LT is in the picture vulturing TDs and Leon Washington will take 3rd downs and gobble receptions. I hear Greene projected in the 2nd and as early as the first. Seems like a big gamble on an unproven player. I don’t care how good the Jet’s line is this year. I’m not buying the Greene hype.

“25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season. If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.” TATE! HA!

In my 8 team keeper (max 3 keep) I have Chris Johnson, Gore, Fitz and Mendenhall. I was set on keeping Mendenhall as my third (to fill in for byes and when Gore misses his annual 2-3 games, but with the whole Rothlisberger unpleasantness, I don’t know if that makes Fitz the better choice.
Thanks for keeping up with the site in the off season dood!

@Cole: That’s tough. So no RB/WR/TE slot? If Mendenhall is going to be on the bench I think you have to go with Fitz. I’m not too worried about Ben being out. Mendy will get plenty of work (not as many TD’s) while he’s out. But you have to go with the starter over the bench player.