Sheathing Asian Weapons

Christian Science Monitor, Editorial. 30 April, 1997

Six of the 10 largest armies in the world are in Asia. China's, the
world's largest standing army, is vigorously modernizing its weapons,
long-range and short-range. China's President Jiang Zemin, although
commander in chief, never served in uniform. And so, like Bill Clinton,
he shows signs of feeling a need to prove himself a faithful supporter
of his military.

And that's only the geographic center of a problem that calls for new
steps to prevent arms races and actual conflicts from breaking out
around China's perimeter.

Uncle Sam can't play both arsonist and fire department toward its
friends in Asia.

In Asia's east, the US is pressing Japan to update its strategic
defenses after half a century of keeping its armed forces inoffensive
(literally) and non-nuclear. Uncle Sam-san's goad to Tokyo: Watch out
for North Korea's intermediate range Rodong missiles that can
potentially hit all of Japan except eastern Hokkaido.

To the southeast, Indonesia has been trying to upgrade its air force
and missile defenses. Vietnam worries about fending off China, mindful
of their 1979 border war and current maneuvers over offshore oil. And
the US recently agreed to sell Thailand its most advanced air-to-air
missile, even though Thailand faces no outside threat. That prompted
neighbor Malaysia to shop for its own missiles.

To the west, scene of three India-Pakistan wars and one India-China
war, there is a glimmer of hope. India's new prime minister, although
already beset by political wrangles, appears driven to carry on peace
explorations with Pakistan.

The need to control all these regional arms races has become more
urgent. One reason: implied missile blackmail from North Korea relayed
by high-ranking defector Hwang Jang Yop. Another: the possibility that
China might again bully Taiwan or other neighbors with military
exercises. A third: Washington's soon to be completed review of its
defenses going into the next century.

That review is almost certain to push for a new generation of smart
weapons, paid for by reductions in troop strength. The former would
mean more "slightly used" weapons to be sold. The latter might mean
reducing the US troop "shield" in East Asia below the key 100,000
level. It may seem unlikely that South Korea and Japan would follow
Manila and eject US bases. But it would be prudent for the US to
encourage its Asian friends and China to establish regular meetings of
their defense chiefs with an eye to finding a way to prevent arms
races. And also to establish systems for keeping disputes from getting
out of hand.

As part of encouraging quiet Asian defense summits, Washington could
pledge itself to restraining its own weapons-sales tendencies. As East
Asia scholar Chalmers Johnson argues, Uncle Sam can't play both
arsonist and fire department - at least not convincingly.