Hot Stove: Phillies Offer Pagan Four Years

Fresh from the desk of Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Phillies are believed to have offered center fielder Angel Pagan a four year deal. The 31-year old Pagan hit .288/.331/.440 with eight homers and 29 steals in a bounce-back 2012. His 2012 line was just slightly better than his career line of .281/.333/.424. Pagan has seemingly emerged as the Phillies’ premier center field target as the team believes it can commit to Pagan and fill holes at third and in the bullpen. Rosenthal believes the Giants have also offered Pagan four years.

Analysis: Pagan’s 2012 was a bounce-back year from an out-of-the-ordinary extraordinary 2010 with the Mets. Pagan has faired well on the basepaths at a 78.98% success-rate and has played above-average defense in center for his career but really only three full and one half season under his belt with several partial seasons scattered across seven years. Four years is way too long of a commitment, in my opinion, for a player that has only had success in three seasons and is already 31.

*scratching my head* as to why you’d say Pence was a “bust” when he was our leader in HR when he was traded ( but yet, you’d like Victorino–who pretty much just gave up even really trying, to come back for us )

Still like to see Shane back? Vic had a bad season and is also just as old as Pagan. He’s being pursued by seven teams, and will likely cost just as much as Pagan.

Pagan might be “meh” to a lot of people, but besides Bourn, who will cost tons of money and a draft pick, Hamilton, who will probably cost more, is an injury risk, and is probably better suited for LF, or a trade, which will cost needed players/prospects, Pagan is as good or better than the other free agent CFers.

Sorry, Eric, but I don’t go only by WAR. Victorino had a bad season, didn’t have good lefty/righty splits (which have been getting worse) and finished the year worse than he started it. Pagan had a decent year. It’s hard to say who might be declining the fastest, but it appears to be Victorino at this point. It’s also hard to say who will get the biggest payday, but there does seem to be more interest in Victorino, except by the Phils, who probably know him best as afr as how he fits in, his current abilities, and how they might pan out in a couple of years.

I’m not totally against Victorino, but I do feel he’ll be less steady than Pagan.

I don’t consider Ross to be a center fielder, and Hamilton is better suited for a corner. I’ve already given my views on Victorino, who has some power but isn’t a true power bat. He’s also a switch hitter, not a pure righthanded hitter. Of course that’s nitpicking.

And to hk, your assumptions PISS ME OFF. Why don’t you ask me what I think instead of assuming what I think. Maybe you’d actually learn something true about my feelings about BJ Upton, which are as follows: the Braves paid too much for him, and therefore I’m very happy the Phils didn’t sign him. He has power, but a low BA and OBP.

George, relax. My comment was not an assumption of what you were thinking, it was a response to your “Please name all the free agent center fielders who have good right handed power” comment. I believe that Tz, not you, was complaining that they didn’t sign Upton and now they have to settle for a CF without RH power (like Pagan).

Sorry about that, hk. It did appear at first that you were responding to my comment, and not that of Tz.

That said, it is still very dangerous to assume the thoughts of someone else. Maybe Tz was frustrated, maybe not.

Also, your response to my “p—-d off” remark still indicates that you’re reading something a little strange into my asking the names of all the power-hitting CFers. It was a simple question, answered simply by EricL, who did it without any assumptions about what anyone was thinking.

For relatively low money Pagan will play a good centerfield. But he is no power bat. That is going to have to come from the corner outfielders or the third baseman. I don’t see that this year but better to secure the defense up the middle and get a solid player.

Yeah, if they get Hamilton for right and Youk at 3rd than they can afford to have less power in center. At least Pagan gives them some above-average defensive talent, but this is a team in dire need of run production. A healthy Hamilton brings them 140 RBI and no other free agent this year has that capacity. If they don’t spring for Hamilton, they’re going to have to make a trade for talent that approaches Hamilton’s numbers and that would likely cost them the only thing they have to offer – a starting pitcher on the level of Lee or Halladay.
I’m not convinced “Babe” Ruff should be anything more than a pinch-hitter (more a hazard in the field) and despite some long-ball success after he was brought up, he’s still far from a proven and prevailing talent against major league pitching, especially considering he’s no longer a young prospect. I wish Brown would show some growth. It’s hard not to look at him and see the athletic potential but the finer points of the game are things that athleticism alone cannot buy.

EricL, I’m pretty sure Pagan Is an improvement over Mayberry, and therefore would improve the team. (Mayberry could assume the sub role he’s more capable of.) The second part is debateable, and the third part I totally agree with. There just aren’t any guys out there that excite me, either.

And all the experts said what a great crop of free agent outfielders would be available! I looked at the list early on and my reaction to the whole thing was “meh.” The only thing worse was the pool of 3rd basemen.

This is a great addition especially if this allows for other additions to the lineup and bullpen. Pagan is not a superstar but he is a good player that can switch hit, be a true lead off hitter with a little bit of pop at least and best of all will not break the bank. He’s only 31 that’s not bad at all and is somebody who can get on base. I love this move especially if the Phils go out and get a Right handed power bat at 3B or in LF, plus a veteran set up man. Quit whining about age with the Phillies being old enough, what the heck difference does it make if the Phillies signed a guy 3-4 years younger, our window to win is now so better do all you can to take advantage of it

I’d prefer 3 years, but I agree with you that 4 for Pagan would not be the end of the world if – and it’s a big if – the dollars are reasonable (maybe $11M per year). The other benefit of Pagan vs. Bourn is that Pagan does not cost the team their 1st round pick in the June draft.

Angel made 4.8 mil last year and according to article, has been offered a 4 year deal by the Giants too. Would he be a good fit on the Phils? Perhaps.
Still have a huge need though, for a big gun. If the money is reasonable (is it ever now a day?) I would fee pretty decent about this acquisition.

he takes three drug test a week and has not failed, he has bounced back strong fromn a past that should have killed him….we all have problems we r all human and make mistakes…dont mention alcohol like u dont drink any…..so f*ck and this ignorant a$$ comment like your perfect. grow up.

well robert. that was rather blunt! but i do agree with your comment as far as his testing , and
(so called problems) i think he’s beyond that except, for people who keep reminding him of it!
i don’t care what they want to spend for any free agents. i feel as though a lot of commentors must be certified CPA’s . worrying about the bottom line all the time. if they want to spend and go over the cap they’ll do it. i don’t worry about the money stuff. i’d love to have a thumper like him in the order. my biggest problem with what they do spend is. his age, and length of the contract. like i said i don’t care what they spend as long as it doesn’t hamper them from making other moves. and basically that’s what the other guys here are actually talking about in terms of money. but MY biggest problem with JH is the fact that he’s another lefty.
and as far as your comment on being perfect and growing up? i’m 62 and will never grow up! lol as far as being perfect? that i am! i’m perfectly imperfect! lol put it short i’m a perfectly immature old fart!lol

I would love to see Hamilton in right. He’s a superb talent at bat (even against lefties), an above-average fielder (if put at a corner) and remains one of the premier players in baseball.
But as far as alcohol and drug demons go, addicts don’t really ever get past it. The lucky ones manage to keep a step ahead of it. As a free agent (who won’t cost the team equal talent in another position) I believe Hamilton is worth that chance, but let’s not fool ourselves, he’s a risk and nobody knows that better now than Josh Hamilton himself.

SInce there are now three open roster spots, I’m pretty certain there is more than one piece is in play. Pagan could be a nice piece if paired with the other needs. Also, since trades are not out of the realm of possibility, there could be more roster spots opening. We could see wholesale changes that include Pagan.

It’s also possible that we could see very little movement, which is not always a bad thing, 3 of last year’s playoff teams did very little last offseason.

So, for those that are concerned that a Pagan signing means they won’t be able to get some right handed pop and a reliever, don’t be. This could be the just the beginning. And in my opinion, a real good one defensively. When you spend like the Phils have on pitching, you gotta have guys (particularly up the middle) that can really get after, and catch the baseball.

I agree that Pagan could be a nice piece if paired with other need(s), but in the absence of good 3rd baseman (beyond Youk) with ample power the only obvious choice is Hamilton in right field.
I don’t believe the Phillies can afford to sit pat with just Pagan added to their starting lineup. He’s only an answer to the team’s (every team’s) need for defensive talent in center and probable some on-base percentage improvement in their lead-off slot.
This team is desperate for power, even if that means adding another left-handed hitter like Hamilton. If I recall, his numbers aren’t bad against lefties which is more than you can say for their current middle of the order.

Four years is too long for Pagan, considering he only had one or two really above average seasons. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem the team wants to offer Victorino a short term deal. It is ashame the team is stick with Nix’s contract, as I think Nate S. is the better fielder, and although he lacks power, is a slightly better hitter. I truly think Amaro is gonna surprise us all and sign Hamilton. Not sure if in onboar with that. Who knows though. Just have a lot of holes to fill and the market isn’t that great. Go Phils!

Depends. If they feel their next TV contract is going to be somewhere in the Dodgers’ range (not that high, obviously, but in the $4-5 billion range?) then they might not have a problem taking on a lot of salary for the right pieces.

No way to know I guess, but think about it, they probably have to give him at least Howard money right? 5/125. Then hope the TV thing works out, which is not a sure thing. Suppose all these networks that are presently paying the big money begin to look like bad investments, then everything changes.

"Ignore" signal was repeated on a bicycle "ex-convict"? How do you become the violation? I wonder is not that many people think you need much even run a red light on a bicycle, is stopped by police at best, be noted. But I might be going to come to an end also "heaven" http://www.r4kaartr4i.orghttp://www.r4kaartr4i.org

I’d be happy with Pagan for thee years, the more I think about it, as long as the money is reasonable and it allows us to still fill the set-up man spot and possibly third. Anyone know if Reynold is available as a short term fix at third? Heard the Orioles might let him walk.

i know vic had a bad season this year, but is pagan really any better than him? i’m thinking they just want a new face and players always become popular when they play for a world series team. vic has better power #s.

Thanks, Lefty. I know Reynolds isn’t the greatest fielder or overall hitter, but the guy can crush the ball with power when he is in a groove. Maybe we can get him cheap. I’m not sold on Youk. Too many injuries, and we just let Polly go because of that. RAJ has some tough decisions. Glad I’m not a GM. Lol.

Although Reynolds is a stiff both on the field as well as the bat, probably he more than anyone was the catalyst for the Orioles drive in August and September and nearly destroyed the Yanks single handedly by hitting 7 hrs against them. Reynolds hit 23 hrs for the year, 9 in September (although he batted .231) and 6 in August (hitting .275).

Reynolds saved Ryan Howard from the indignity of being identified as the single season strike out king by whiffing over 200 times in 3 consecutive years (his high was 223 K’s in 2009). We would hate seeing Reynolds in a Phils uniform, really.

Lefty, I agree with you on Hamilton. When the guy is on he is phenomenal, but he brings more than the average risk to a team with his addictions, injuries, and price tag. I applaud his efforts to quell his demons and still rank as a top player in the game, and I’d love to have him as a Phillie, but the price and risk seem to be too great. Although when RAJ wants someone he usually gets them – good, bad, or ugly.

Hamilton certainly doesn’t come without his own physical risks – and personal demons, and I’m sure whoever signs him will have ample clauses to protect the team in case those issues return. Than again, he’s a lot less a risk to a new team as a free agent than he would be if a team had trade away existing talent for his services.
The price tag may still be too high vs risk but on one thing everyone can agree, when Hamilton is firing on all cylinders there are few better at any position.

I hope Pagan turns down reported offer by Amaro. I want the ‘Flyin’ Hawiian’ who creates havoc on the basepath with dynamic speed and a 3 time gold glover in CF. Pagan? What do the Phillies gained with him that Victorino does not offer? Victorino is better than Pagan and probably cheaper.

Try Alphonso Soriano in RF for 2 yrs, platoon JMJ/Brown in CF (Brown is most productive when he plays CF), platoon Ruf/Brown in LF. Reynolds would MASH in CBP! I like the thought of his whiff, whif, MASH in the lineup!

Gotta disagree here Schmenkman, I realize there are a lot of factors that go into it but most of these are way out no matter the wind direction etc. In fact the balls to the right side look like they would not go out if you overlay Chase Field.

Not that I’m campaigning for Reynolds, I don’t think that would be a good move at all defensively.

As you allude to, there is more than fence distance that goes into whether a ball leaves the park (humidity, wind, etc.), but in general, RH batters are helped more by Camden Yards and Chase Field than by CBP. Could Reynolds be an exception, can you factor in more than one of his seasons? It’s possible.

@Sch, how do u figure that stat since the Phils have been Lefty power heavy for the past half decade so the home run rate for Righties will be skewed low. Plus the left field walls are 329, 330, and 333 feet at CBP, Chase Field, and Camden Yards, respectively.

Park factors are calculated by comparing the stats by both teams in (say) the Phillies’ home games with the stats in their away games. So same teams, same hitters, same pitchers in both situations.

And when you do that, RH hitters hit slightly fewer home runs at CBP than in the Phillies’ away games. However both Chase and Camden Yards have boosted HRs by RH hitters. Look for the park factors on the right side of these pages. The factors at this site are 3-year averages: