The Affordable Care Act is about to test how well people respond to economic incentives.

About 3.5 million Americans who are uninsured today could get health coverage in 2016 for less than what they’ll pay in penalties under the ACA, according to a new analysis.

That’s because the Affordable Care Act’s fines for skipping health insurance will rise next year. On average, people currently uninsured would have to pay $969 in 2016, up from $661 this year, according to the report by the Kaiser Family Foundation. The penalties are rising to 2.5% of income or a flat dollar amount of $695 per adult, whichever is higher. That’s compared with 2% of income or $325 per adult this year.