Kim Jong Un claims to have Guam in his missile cross-hairs… but the dictator of North Korea may have overlooked one incredibly important obstacle.

Early this week, the rogue nation threatened the island country, which is also home to a major U.S. military base.

While North Korea’s missile and nuclear capability may be further along than previously thought, the most recent threat seems to have overlooked one important factor: Japan.

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“[L]et’s say North Korea was able to launch a missile, or several missiles, successfully,” posited conservative analyst Tom Rogan in The Washington Examiner. “In that scenario, U.S. missile defense forces in Japan would kick into overdrive.”

The frequent National Review contributor — who holds a Master degree from the School of Oriental and African Studies — pointed out that any launch against Guam would almost certainly end up crossing allied airspace first.

“As the map below indicates, a ballistic missile attack on Guam would have to travel across Japan,” Rogan explained.

That flight path is extremely significant.

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“Japan is protected by the Aegis ballistic missile defense system, designed to intercept ballistic missiles in midcourse (between boost/launch and terminal stages). And as the map shows, any ballistic missile targeting Guam would be midcourse while over Japan,” the analyst elaborated.

The U.S. military presence on Guam itself is another major factor that would throw a wrench in North Korea’s plans for aggression.

“Via forces at Anderson Air Force base, Guam is protected by the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system and, presumably, also Patriot PAC-3 interceptor batteries,” Rogan continued.

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“These are terminal phase interceptor forces designed to shoot down a ballistic missile as it re-enters the atmosphere in the final stage of an attack.”

Finally, Guam has a major advantage that has nothing to do with technology: Size.

More specifically, it’s a small island… and that means that North Korea’s newly-built missiles may have a tough time of accurately hitting it.

“At around 28 miles long and 8 miles wide, Guam is not a big target,” the Washington Examiner contributor stated.

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“That produces an added risk calculation to North Korean strategy. After all, while the range and nuclear warhead-compatibility of North Korean ballistic missiles are impressive, their targeting capabilities are less competent,” continued the report.

In the end, trying and failing to hit the small island with a missile may be like taking a drunken swing at a professional boxer.

The United States and its allies would have all the reason they need to strike back… and the result would not end well for Kim Jung Un.

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