"Nearing the end is when we get the first quarter earnings reports from most of the major financials," he told CNBC.

"We actually have a couple of the major financials...that say, 'We overstepped it; it wasn't $26 billion, it was $25 billion' -- that's when they ring the bell at the bottom."

Hogan sees that happening sometime during the second quarter, as the first-quarter results come in.

In the meantime, he has a couple of recommendations: Taser International , which is preparing to roll out its newest product, and Tupperware, which he sees as recession-resistant, with great international exposure.