Truth be told, I'm perplexed about which Emmy nominees will carry trophies home from Monday's ceremony.

There was so much great TV last season that standout prime-time shows including "The Good Wife" and "Scandal" and stars Michael Sheen ("Masters of Sex") and James Spader ("The Blacklist") didn't even make the cut as nominees.

Those who did are, for the most part, richly deserving. But now how to choose among them?

Then there's this year's notable trend of shape-shifting, with programs squeezed into categories that could give them better odds of winning — even if the fit might raise viewers' eyebrows.

Cases in point: Netflix's prison-set "Orange Is the New Black," which despite its dark content is vying with the likes of "Modern Family" for comedy laurels, and HBO's "True Detective," which looks all the world like a miniseries yet is gunning for "Mad Men" and other open-ended dramas.

Thanks, TV academy, for keeping us all guessing!

Here are the contenders and our own sometimes clashing, sometimes matching picks for seven major categories:

Drama Series

Should win: "True Detective." Grim, gritty, wickedly addictive.

Will win: "True Detective." How could Emmy snub this true masterpiece?

Comedy Series

Should win: "Louie." Emmy needs to kick the "Modern Family" habit.

Will win: "Veep." Emmy will kick the habit — by rewarding the wrong show.

Actor, Drama Series

Should win: Matthew McConaughey, "True Detective." Edges out co-star Woody Harrelson only because he got to play two roles — not just one — brilliantly.

Will win: Jon Hamm, "Mad Men." Enhanced his character's palette with new colors this season. With time running out for him, the Susan Lucci tease will end.