Jonathan Manthorpe: Italy’s ousted PM Silvio Berlusconi rides out of retirement on an orgy of voter support

Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun columnist02.21.2013

He’s back! Media mogul and former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi gestures during a rally in Rome on Wednesday, Feb. 20, 2013. The last opinion polls before a pre-election blackout had Berlusconi in a tie and climbing against center-left candidate Pierluigi Bersani.

There is a mood of stunned disbelief among many European political leaders that Italy’s voters may return to power Silvio Berlusconi, the man whose antics in government and the bedroom brought the country to poverty-stricken humiliation.

The Germans, in particular, are beside themselves with apprehension that the return of Berlusconi will undermine the increasingly successful campaign to save the euro common currency of 17 of the 27 members of the European Union.

While German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been studiously silent on the subject of Berlusconi’s return to Italy’s political front lines after a year in the wilderness living down exposure of his hosting of modern Roman orgies known as “bunga bunga parties,” her ministers have not.

Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble told an Italian magazine that his advice to the country’s voters “is not to make the same mistake again by re-electing Berlusconi.”

Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle was slightly more diplomatic in suggesting in an interview with a German newspaper that Italians not vote for Berlusconi.

Martin Schultz, the German president of the European Parliament, who has had run-ins with Berlusconi before, was more blunt. Berlusconi, he said, “has previously sent Italy into a tailspin with his irresponsible actions as head of government and his personal escapades.”

If Berlusconi, the 76-year-old multibillionaire media mogul, does emerge from Sunday and Monday’s election as Italy’s prime minister for the fourth time it will be one of the more remarkable political resurrections of modern times.

In November, 2011, the man know to his avid supporters as “Il Cavaliere” – the knight – was forced to resign amid a series of revelations about his hosting of bunga bunga parties and a collapsing economy that threatened the survival of the eurozone.

At the insistence of Germany, whose still vibrant export-oriented economy is the life-support system for the euro, a trustworthy Italian technocrat, Mario Monti, was installed as prime minister.

For a year, Monti pursued austerity policies that have pulled Italy back from the economic brink and played their part together with similar programs pursued in other threatened EU countries such as Greece, Spain and Portugal in reviving the euro.

Berlusconi, meanwhile, proclaimed he had finished with politics and went off to nurse his bitter feelings and to contemplate the long list of charges he still faces over bribery, abuse of power and having sex with an under-age escort, one of his bunga bunga girls, 17-year-old Karima el-Marough known as Ruby the Heart-breaker.

What brought Berlusconi out of his self-imposed exile was, ironically, when he was found guilty in October of tax fraud and sentenced to a one-year prison sentence.

At a press conference a couple of days later announcing his intention to appeal the conviction Berlusconi went off on a rant against the German banks, the French and German governments and Monti.

He called on his party, the People of Liberty (PdL), to withdraw its support for the Monti government, which, as the party is financed by Berlusconi for his own purposes, was a foregone conclusion.

Suddenly Berlusconi was back, but when in December Monti announced his resignation and new elections, polls suggested Berlusconi and centre-right allies had little chance of winning power.

Polls showed the Democratic Party (DP) led by Pier Luigi Bersani with the support of about 33 per cent of voters while Berlusconi’s PdL languished at about 16 per cent.

This suggested Bersani and the DP were on course to lead a centre-left coalition government.

But Berlusconi is a highly effective, populist campaigner and with his vast fortune – he’s one of Italy’s wealthiest men – and control of three television channels and other media, has all the resources necessary to win.

He has ridden a blatantly anti-German, anti-austerity campaign that has resonated with many voters.

“Should we continue to allow Germany to dictate policies that ruin Italy?” he shouted out at a rally last week. Then response from the crowd was a predictable bellow of “no.”

His campaign has even mailed out to voters personalized and official-looking letters promising them a refund on a highly unpopular property tax introduced by Monti to try to get the country’s books in order.

By the end of the first week in February, Berlusconi and his PdL had halved the lead of the dour and resolutely uncharismatic Bersani and the DP.

Publication of polls is banned in Italy in the last two weeks of election campaigns. So the question is whether Berlusconi has continued to eat in to Bersani’s lead.

The unattributable word from many pollsters is that Berlusconi’s charge has stalled and that a DP-led centre-left coalition will win by about five per cent.

But no one is giving predictions with confidence and it remains possible that a Berlusconi win on Tuesday could throw Italy and the eurozone into a new season of turmoil.

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Jonathan Manthorpe: Italy’s ousted PM Silvio Berlusconi rides out of retirement on an orgy of voter support

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