Millions at stake as Duval schools head count off by 1,000

But enrollment fluctuates; no teacher, staff layoffs expected

Enrollment in Duval County Public Schools is rising but is about 1,000 students below projections at this point in the new school year, according to the recent 20-day count.

Unless enrollment increases, which Duval administrators expect it will, the school district ultimately might lose up to an estimated $5 million in state funding.

Student enrollment fluctuates throughout the year. The 20-day count doesn’t determine how much state funding that a school district receives. However, school district officials consider the count a preliminary indicator of the year’s enrollment trend. They use it as a guide when determining teacher staffing and other budget-related school decisions.

The count shows Duval has 125,387 students in pre-kindergarten through 12th grade. That is about 1,000 students below the state’s enrollment projection for the district. If that decrease stands, it may result in the district losing approximately $4 million to $5 million in state funding, said Jill Johnson, school district spokeswoman.

No teacher or other employee layoffs are anticipated, Johnson emphasized about the potential funding loss. Johnson gave the same answer about what the district would do if it ends up with a surplus of teachers or other employees.

On Sept. 11, Superintendent Ed Pratt-Dannals told the School Board that enrollment was down 2,230 students and the district faced losing about $10 million. Two days later, updated data from district officials showed enrollment was down only by 1,600 including about 700 students who had been projected to enroll but apparently didn’t. Based on that data, the district faced losing about $7 million in state funding.

Full-time equivalent funding calculations are based on enrollment surveys conducted over a five-day period next month and in February. It is only calculated when students are in the classroom receiving instruction. If a student only attends class for a portion of the day, then the district only receives a portion of the funding for that student.

Districts will receive funding related to those surveys in January and May 2013 according to a state formula.

The 20-day count shows the Clay and St Johns County school districts down slightly from their enrollment projections. Enrollment in Nassau County schools, however, is running slightly above its projection.

If the count holds true, Clay, down 150 students, may lose $600,000 in the state funding. St. Johns, down 74 students, may lose $463,000 in the funding. Meanwhile, Nassau County with an increase of 58 students so far, may get about $372,227 more in the funding, based on the projections.

Duval and the other districts already have taken steps to avoid teacher and employee layoffs. They’ve enacted hiring freezes, are adjusting staffing levels among the schools and made other budget trims.

“The district currently has vacancies that can be utilized in order to offset any potential layoffs,” said Sonita Young, Duval chief of human resources.

All four districts expect enrollment to increase by the upcoming count surveys.

Clay County schools Superintendent Ben Wortham said Clay froze about a half-dozen positions as a precaution to offset a potential loss in funding.

Although it is 74 students below enrollment projections now, the St. Johns school district’s enrollment typically goes up an average of 800 students annually, spokeswoman Christina Langston said.

Although it looks like Nassau will get more money, district officials have a wait-and-see attitude.

“Just because we have an increase in students over our projection doesn’t mean we will get this much extra,” said Sharyl Wood, the school system’s executive director of administrative services. “It depends on what is happening to other districts and the availability of funds statewide.”

"Hey TU, how about explaining why a drop of 1000 students equals $4-5 million. Unless I missed something this makes no sense at all unless DCPS is receiving $625+ million from the state for the remaining student body?"

According to the document I sourced, the State's tentative portion for 2011/12 was $482,699,658 or roughly $3849.96 per student based on 125378 students (also from the sourced doc). When multiplied by 1000, the result is $3,849,960.

Per the article:
If that decrease stands, it may result in the district losing "approximately $4 million" to $5 million in state funding, said Jill Johnson, school district spokeswoman. Emphasis on the word "approximately". I don't know what the State currently provides Duval County per student, but this would explain "approximately $4 million".