MODELING TURNOUT AND POLLING UNIVERSES IN A COVID ELECTION

The realities of the COVID-19 pandemic mean that we need to rethink who is likely to show up at the remaining 2020 primaries and, perhaps, even the November general election.

Campaign professionals should be attuned to how polling, modeling, and voter targeting should be adjusted for the remainder of this cycle.

One of the primary challenges in public opinion polling is the art and science of determining who is likely to show up and vote on Election Day. There are several ways that pollsters determine who is likely to vote.

First, we study the voter file to understand who has voted in a recent or similar kind of election – such as a Presidential year Congressional primary, or which voters have registered to vote since the last election.