Five Charts That Explain the Year in Politics

Gridlock is the defining feature of today’s Washington. The two political parties agree on very little, and there are vanishingly few members of Congress who cross the aisle to vote with the opposition. In fact, as this graph, courtesy of political scientist Adam Bonica, shows, the 112th Congress, elected in 2010, is the most polarized in decades.

2. The Deficit

There was no better illustration of Washington’s failure to deal with big problems than the inability of Congress and the White House to reach a deficit-reduction deal, one of the few issues where at least the parties agree (for the most part) that there is indeed a problem. While the parties blamed each other for the deficit problem, the New York Times published this highly clarifying and widely disseminated graph that clearly illustrated the sources of our deficit woes

3. The Republicans

The defining feature of the Republican race has been Mitt Romney’s constancy as he’s faced a series of right-wing challengers who have charged up the hill, only to roll back down it within weeks. This wonderful Slate animation captures the dynamic perfectly.

4. Inequality

Thanks to Occupy Wall Street, the issue of income inequality became something that politicians from Eric Cantor to Barack Obama began to discuss this year. In October, the Congressional Budget Office released a detailed report documenting the growing gap between rich and poor in America since 1979. One stark graph shows the chasm that has opened up in recent decades between the income of the top one per cent and everyone else.

5. Obama’s Chances

There are many different Presidential forecasting models out there. For a great roundup of them, see this terrific article by the political scientist Brendan Nyhan. The so-called “Bread and Peace” model has had a pretty good track record and gets points for its simplicity. It takes into account just two variables: growth of per capita real disposable personal income (essentially, how much extra money voters have in their pockets) and U.S. military fatalities. Based on this model, if the election were held today, Obama would win just forty-four per cent of the vote. But he’s got almost a year to turn things around.