Wednesday, March 25, 2015

The New York Times: Has Obamacare Enrollment Stalled?

Readers of this blog know that I have made a number of points about Obamacare in recent months:

The number of people signing up for Obamacare is well below the level necessary to make the rates stable over the long-term––the longstanding insurance industry standard calls for getting 75% of an eligible group in order to have enough healthy people in the pool to pay the costs of the sick people. I have reported to you that less than half of the subsidy eligible have signed up so far.

The Obama administration's enrollment estimates, that they now use to celebrate their 2015 enrollment results, were low ball estimates that aren't close to the kind of enrollment they need to make the program both politically and financially sustainable.

Obamacare's overall enrollment is coming up way short of original projections and has slowed down considerably in the most recent second open enrollment.

In the face of these comments you have likely noted any number of press reports in the past weeks pointing out just how well Obamacare has been doing.

On average, so far only 43% of eligible people in the federal exchanges and 38% in the state-run exchanges picked plans.

"I think the concern about running out of momentum is legitimate," said one expert. He went on to point out that states should be aiming to sign up 65% to 75% of eligible residents. "If we end up running out of gas before 50%, that's very disappointing."

Obamacare's 2015 market share increase was "much smaller" in the state-run exchanges that did comparatively better the first year––"If the states that did everything right the first year and have stalled, what does that say about what we can expect from the states in year 3?"

"Over all, though, the gap between state- and federal-run exchanges this year becomes worrisome when considering that most models for Obamacare estimate that it will take about three years for the program to hit peak enrollment, and that the peak will be somewhere around 24 million people. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 10 million more people will enroll in plans next year [less than 4 million more enrolled this year]."

Another expert is quoted as asking, "Why did the states hit such a wall. I'm starting to wonder if we've overestimated this whole thing."

So, why is Obamacare hitting a "wall" well before either achieving the original enrollment estimates or sustainable enrollment levels?

Washington Post's Wonkblog "Pundit of the Year"

Bob Laszewski was named the Washington Post's Wonkblog "Pundit of the Year" for 2013 for "one of the most accurate and public accounts" detailing the first few months of the Obamacare rollout.

"Top 5 Speaker on Health Care"

Bob Laszewski has been named a "Top 5 Speaker" on health care in a survey involving 13,000 business leaders, educators, association members, and others.

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The purpose of thishealth care blogis to provide an ongoing review ofhealth care policy activity in Washington, DC and the marketplace.

Health Policy and Strategy Associates, LLC (HPSA) is a Washington, DC based firm that specializes in keeping its clients abreast of the health policydebate in the nation's capital as well as developments inthe health care marketplace.

HPSA is not a lobbying firm. Our niche is objective non-partisan information on what is happening in the federal health policy debate and in the market.

Robert Laszewski, Washington, DC

Robert Laszewski is president of Health Policy and Strategy Associates, LLC (HPSA), a policy and marketplace consulting firm specializing in assisting its clients through the significant health policy and market change afoot.
Before forming HPSA in 1992, Mr. Laszewski was chief operating officer for a health and group benefits insurer.
The majority of Mr. Laszewski’s time is spent being directly involved in the marketplace as it comes to grips with the health care cost and quality challenge.