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Re: Thoughts for Follow-on Piece

Released on 2013-09-15 00:00 GMT

Email-ID

885910

Date

2010-09-30 16:38:51

From

bokhari@stratfor.com

To

analysts@stratfor.com

List-Name

analysts@stratfor.com

The issue is not public pressure on Islamabad. Rather the fact that there
is no way they could allow continued incursions hitting the media every
other day and then have their own soldiers killed. Even if the public was
contained this is a red line.

That said, they deal with various branches of USG and they know that
everyone is not necessarily on the same page. They are not sure who is
giving the orders for these incursions. But the idea is to get those who
are opposed to escalating matters with Pakistan to step in and end these
violations. So, the move to close the supply route is designed to get the
attention of those calling the shots in DC. The Pakistanis know that there
are a lot of those in DC who are fearful that things can get even worse in
the country and they want them to prevail over this situation. Or else
they risk everything going down the toilet. At least this is the
perception that the Pakistani are trying to shape to get the U.S./NATO
forces to back off from these incursions.

There is also the view within the state that these incursions are
happening because now Pak is even more reliant on U.S. assistance because
of the floods. In other words, DC is trying to use that lever to expand
the scope of its cross-border strikes from simply using UAVs to rotary and
fixed wing aircraft. The Pakistanis know that they need the Americans but
they also know that this is not completely a unidirectional relationship.
They also know that U.S. needs them as well. So, they are reacting
accordingly. They will not jump the gun. Rather take incremental measure
steps to see the response from the other side and then move accordingly.

The hit on the FC may not have been deliberate but it does provide an
opening for the Pakistanis to exploit.

-------

Kamran Bokhari

STRATFOR

Regional Director

Middle East & South Asia

T: 512-279-9455

C: 202-251-6636

F: 905-785-7985

bokhari@stratfor.com

www.stratfor.com

On 9/30/2010 10:07 AM, Nate Hughes wrote:

1.) lay out in more detail how pressures on Islamabad domestically have
been mounting, especially as American attacks on the Pakistani side of
the border have been increasing in tempo.
2.) the war doesn't stop at the Afghan border, so there is a strong U.S.
incentive to continue to push this as it attempts to do what it can to
lock down the situation and demonstrate progress.
3.) go into how intel sharing and supply lines are Islamabad's two main
levers over the U.S.
4.) this is clearly coming to a head, so we'll need to watch for what
compromise is reached and its implications for operations.
--
Nathan Hughes
Director
Military Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com