Early 2011 Draft Preview

The 2010 draft signing period just passed a week ago, and we’ve yet to see top picks Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie throw a single pitch, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a look ahead to the 2011 version of the draft. By early accounts, the 2011 draft is one of the most talented drafts in the last few years, especially at the top. You’ve probably seen plenty of people tracking the reverse standings, with some celebration over the fact that the Pirates are currently “in the lead” as the worst team in baseball this year. There’s good reason for that: Anthony Rendon.

Rendon is the consensus number one pick next year. He’s coming off a sophomore year in which he hit for a .394/.539/.801 line in 226 at-bats, with 26 homers. The accomplishment was enough to earn him the Baseball America Player of the Year honors, an award which Rendon is a favorite for heading in to the 2011 season. Rendon plays third base, and his defense at the position would be enough to push Pedro Alvarez over to first base if he ended up with the Pirates.

Rendon has recently suffered an ankle injury, his second major ankle injury of his young career, although the recovery is going well and his ankle doesn’t look to impact his 2011 season, or his draft status. If the Pirates were to finish with the number one pick, Rendon would be the obvious choice, just like Stephen Strasburg in 2009, and Bryce Harper in 2010. I don’t think there’s any question over whether the Pirates would select Rendon. They’ve spent the most on the draft over the last three years, and while Rendon will cost a lot, the Pirates haven’t been shy about selecting high priced talent (Pedro Alvarez, Jameson Taillon).

The big question about Rendon is how soon he will be in the majors. There is a very good chance he could take the same path as Alvarez: sign at the deadline in 2011, make his debut in 2012, splitting the season between high-A and AA, spend the first half of the 2013 season in AAA, and arrive in the majors in June 2013. The combination of Rendon and Alvarez in the middle of the lineup could be dynamic, much like what the Milwaukee Brewers have with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Combine that with Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen at the top of the order, and the Pirates could have a great offense in 2013, which would be together for two and a half seasons at the least.

At this point, the Pirates are pretty much in line for one of the top two picks, which means if they don’t finish last in the majors, they will finish with the second overall pick in the draft. While Rendon is the consensus top pick, there is talent available at number two, mostly from the college pitching ranks. The top two options are Matt Purke, a left hander from TCU, and Gerrit Cole, a right hander from UCLA.

Purke and Cole are both former first round picks out of high school. Cole was selected by the Yankees in 2008, while Purke was selected in 2009 by the Rangers. Purke is sophomore eligible since he will be 21 in 2011. In his first year with TCU, the 6′ 3″, 180 pound left hander put up a 3.02 ERA in 116.1 innings, with a 11.0 K/9, and a 2.6 BB/9 ratio. Purke was as highly regarded as Tyler Matzek in the 2009 draft, with a 92-95 MPH fastball, and a hard slider that rated as one of the best in the 2009 prep class.

Cole is a right hander, at 6′ 4″, 215 pounds. In his sophomore year with UCLA, Cole put up a 3.37 ERA in 123 innings, with an 11.2 K/9 and a 3.8 BB/9. When he was drafted, Cole threw a 93-96 MPH fastball, topping out at 97-98 MPH. He has a curveball that has a hard, late break. There were concerns that Cole would eventually end up as a closer, due to his lack of command as a starter, especially in late innings. Cole’s control hasn’t been the best in college, with a 4.0 BB/9 ratio in 2009, and a 3.8 BB/9 ratio in 2010.

At this point I would take Purke over Cole. Purke will only have two seasons at the college level, so his arm will be fresh. Cole’s control issues are a concern, and if I had the choice, I’d take the power left handed starter over a power right handed starter. In an optimistic view, Purke could arrive in June 2013, which could possibly be the same time that Jameson Taillon arrives in the majors. The combination of Purke and Taillon could be just as special for the pitching side of things as the combination of Rendon and Alvarez on the hitting side.

One interesting story line to watch over the off-season is what could happen with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. There has been a lot of talk that MLB could add a hard slotting system starting in 2012. That would make the 2011 draft the last chance the Pirates have to load up on over-slot signings in the middle rounds. The Pirates spent a combined $4.048 M on over-slot deals after the first round in 2010, with Stetson Allie getting half of that amount. In 2009 they spent $3.7 M on over-slot deals after the first round, with most of that going to prep pitchers like Zach Von Rosenberg and Colton Cain.

It’s way too early to speculate who the Pirates could get in the middle rounds, although it’s safe to say that they will take that same approach in what could possibly be their final opportunity to load up on over-slot players. What we do know is that if the Pirates finish with one of the top two picks, which seems very likely, they could see a big boost to the 2013 team. Either they finish first, and get an exceptional hitter in Rendon, or they finish with the second pick and get a potential top of the rotation left handed starter in Purke. Jameson Taillon could very well be arriving in 2013, and top prospects like Tony Sanchez and Starling Marte could also be in the majors. Just going off of my top prospects, this is how the June 2013 roster could look like:

Tim Williams

Tim is the owner and editor in chief of Pirates Prospects. He started the site in January 2009, and turned it into his full time job during the 2011 season. Prior to starting Pirates Prospects, Tim worked with AccuScore.com, providing MLB, NHL, and NFL coverage to various national media outlets, including ESPN Insider, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and the Wall Street Journal. He also writes the annual Prospect Guide, which is sold through the site. Tim lives in Bradenton, where he provides live coverage all year of Spring Training, mini camp, instructs, the Bradenton Marauders, and the GCL Pirates.

both of those lineups look fantastic, Tim. Looks like exactly what Neal Huntington is trying to do in Pitt. I think Lambo might be an option in RF, but I would not complain if either of those lineups came to fruition.

Anonymous

Tim is McDonald in the future of the Pirates? (Don’t know his contract status)

http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

I really like McDonald. He’s under team control through the 2014 season.

I’d say that with all of the pitching options we have, there’s bound to be 4 that can join Taillon in 2013 (or 3 if Purke is also in the system).

Anonymous

I have spent plenty of time doing exactly what you do in the end of this article: making fantasy future Pirate lineups on my computer… but they are just that: fantasy. We have no idea how Marte and Sanchez are going to progress through the next three levels. None of the pitchers other than Ohlendorf in the first rotation have thrown a major league pitch. I bet three months ago Lincoln would have been an impressive name for the three slot in these rotations, yet one short ineffective Major League stint later and he doesn’t even get mentioned. I can all but promise the exact same thing happens to at least one, and probably two or three, of the names mentioned in these rotations. D’Arnaud is hitting .240 in AA, and I think it’s very likely we see Neil Walker have a sophomore slump, if not to Warren Morris proportions, then at least to Garret Jones proportions. I’m not writing this to piss anyone off, I’m just saying that when your fantasy involves a 3-year wait there are a million things that can and will go wrong. Then again, some things will probably go right as well, like getting any return in a Ryan Doumit trade.

http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

What I did is pretty standard when looking at prospects. You take the top prospects in the system at each position and make a projected lineup only with those top prospects.

Obviously not every prospect will work out. There’s no guarantee that Marte progresses to become or future RF. Then again, there’s other options, like Andrew Lambo.

The one person I forgot was Lincoln. I’d place him in with the Morris/Owens/Locke group. I also didn’t mention James McDonald, who I like better than any of Lincoln, Morris, Owens, or Locke.

The point of the lineups is that the important pieces look good. A lineup with Alvarez, Rendon, Tabata, and McCutchen looks good, regardless of who the #7-8 hitters (Walker and d’Arnaud) are.

The rotation looks good with Taillon and Purke, two potential aces, at the top, regardless of which pitchers stand out to become the 3-5 starters.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_JCMV5RBIXL5DZK757BZO7MXVMA Wade

is allie in your bullpen?…does this imply you are not confident about allie remining a starter?

http://www.piratesprospects.com Tim Williams

This is a 2013 list. I don’t think Allie can move through the system that fast. Taillon is expected to move quickly, like a college pitcher, but Allie isn’t as polished as Taillon, which is why I didn’t have him on the list.

http://pulse.yahoo.com/_J2ORHTYJJ2I6VAIDRQVMS5B3YU Joe

There were people that said if Rendon were in this past draft he would have been taken over Harper. That got me thinking about the pitchers. How do you think Taillon would rank with Purke and Cole?

Anonymous

Tim,
That Neil Walker profile from the link above is just begging to be updated- Which is great!
Thanks for the work you do, Tim.
Belfry

Anonymous

Do you think its realistic for the Pirates to have a starting lineup in 2013 of all Home grown talent? i think some of this guys like d’Arnaud or Starling Marte will be traded for a more stable piece to help the core.

Hopefully the Pirates do make the right choice between Rendon and Purke either way im happy we get the chance to select either one.