The List: Top House races of 2010

Through the end of the year, Texas on the Potomac is presenting a series of lists wrapping up 2009, looking ahead to 2010 and assessing the decade that was. Today, we look at key House races in the 2010 midterm elections.

Collage by Richard S. Dunham from AP, official photos

Endangered: Harman, Edwards, Rodriguez, Cao

Top Ten bellwether House races

WA-03 Open (D)

Brian Baird’s southwest Washington state district is always tightly contested: twice carried narrowly by George W. Bush, carried narrowly by Barack Obama in 2008. Baird, a perennial GOP target, decided to retire rather than face another well-funded foe in a tough political climate. Lots of candidates in both parties are mulling what will be one of the most competitive contests in the U.S.

PA-07 Open seat (D)

Suburban Philadelphia Democrat Joe Sestak is surrendering his seat to run against party-switcher Arlen Specter in the Senate primary, making this historically Republican district one of the most closely watched in the nation. This middle-class area has become increasingly Democratic over the past decade but is not a sure shot for the Dems. If Republicans can win here, they could well take back the House.

CA-03 Dan Lungren (R)

In a year that’s looking good for Republicans, California Republican Dan Lungren is one of the few who’s sweating. Why? He won in 2008 with only 49 percent of the vote in a Sacramento-area district that President Obama narrowly carried. Democrats have unified behind a well-funded challenger, physician Ami Bera. If Democrats can beat either Lungren or fellow Golden State Republican Mary Bono Mack, it would be a sign that they are not cratering nationally.

TX-17 Chet Edwards (D)

Texas Rep. Chet Edwards is widely admired by House colleagues in both parties. The moderate Waco Democrat is strong on constituent service and he’s a dogged champion of American veterans. He also represents the most Republican district in the U.S. currently held by a Democrat. If Edwards can be toppled — and a large field of Republicans is lining up for the opportunity — it’ll be a terrible year for Democrats in “purple” and “red” America.

DE-AL Open seat (R)

If Democrats are going to hold their own in 2010, they must capture Republican seats like Delaware’s at-large district being vacated by GOP Senate candidate Mike Castle. This state is deep blue and former Lt. Gov. John Carney is a strong Democratic candidate. Still, a competitive race in Delaware could mean big losses around the nation.

CA-36 Jane Harman (D)

How deep are the Democrats’ liberal netroots? Marcy Winograd, the co-founder of the Los Angeles chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, is trying for the second time to topple moderate Democrat Jane Harman, a political rival of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. This race could tell us how much ideological diversity the Democrats are willing to stand in a solidly “blue” district.

NY-23 (D) Bill Owens (D)

Democrat Bill Owens’ special election victory this year was a fluke, the result of a Tea Party rebellion against the moderate Republican nominee. Owens is the first Democrat to represent this upstate New York district in a century. Can he hold it? The district is moderate and is trending Democratic, as is much of the rural North. If the moderate Democratic freshman can hang on, it’ll signal that Democratic setbacks could be confined to red states.

NM-2 Harry Teague (D)

This is shaping up as a classic contest in a swing district. Democratic freshman Harry Teague, swept into office on Barack Obama’s coattails, faces the Republican congressman he replaced, Steve Pearce. It’s a match-up between a moderate Democrat and a very conservative Republican. If Pearce pulls ahead, it’ll tell us how damaged the Democratic brand is in the Southwest.

TX-23 Ciro Rodriguez (D)

The federal courts drew the lines in this sprawling South Texas district, and it’s perhaps the only competitive one in the state. Ciro Rodriguez is the only Texas Democrat to oust a Republican incumbent this decade. Republicans are hoping to return the favor in 2010. In a normal year, Rodriguez should be safe. If there’s a GOP tide, Rodriguez could get swept away.

LA-02 Anh “Joseph” Cao (R)

How bad could things get for Democrats? If it’s next November and the only endangered Republican is New Orleans Rep. Joseph Cao. The moderate freshman, the only House GOP rep to vote for health-care reform, represents the most Democratic district held by a Republican. His election was a fluke: He defeated a convicted felon, William Jefferson. If Cao wins in 2010, it’s a pretty good bet that not a single GOP incumbent will lose.