Evening Brief: Feds release updated COVID-19 modelling

Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam speaks at the daily press conference from West Block in Ottawa to update Canadians about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on April 2, 2020. Andrew Meade/iPolitics

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Good evening, readers.

The Lead

Latest short-term modelling from the federal government projects Canada could have 53,196 to 66,835 COVID-19 cases and 3,277 to 3,883 deaths by May 5 — one week from today.

The forecasts are intended for planning purposes and reflect the likeliest scenario out of a number of possibilities. As of the morning of April 28, 49,014 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus have been reported, as well as 2,766 deaths.

However, the growth of cases nationwide is slowing down, with epidemic growth levelling off in several provinces, such as New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Manitoba.

On April 9, the doubling of cases in Canada occurred every three days. But now, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days. Cases in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta — three of Canada’s four most-populated provinces — are driving recent growth.

Premier François Legault says most Quebec stores and companies operating in construction and manufacturing will gradually be allowed to reopen in the coming weeks. Stores outside Montreal can reopen next Monday while those in the greater Montreal region will reopen May 11. Stores in shopping malls will remain closed, unless they can be accessed from outside.

The premier said the reopening of stores and other businesses will depend on physical distancing rules being respected.

“Our challenge is to gradually restart the economy without restarting the pandemic,” Legault told reporters, noting that the process will be staggered.

Canadian Blood Services on Wednesday afternoon will collect its first COVID-19 convalescent plasma donation for a national study probing the use of the treatment. The donation is for CONCOR, a national clinical trial designed to test the safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 convalescent plasma as a treatment for patients infected with the virus.

On a similar topic, researchers conducting trials on the effectiveness of an antibody-dependent treatment for COVID-19 say they’re not worried about a report from the World Health Organization (WHO) casting doubt around how long antibodies may last.

In a scientific brief in its Saturday COVID-19 update, WHO warned that there’s “no evidence” that recovering from the virus prevents someone from falling ill again because of it.

As the military is deployed to long-term care homes in the urban centres of Ontario and Quebec, approximately 20 per cent of the now full-time Canadian Rangers preparing to assist across remote communities in Canada’s territories are seniors, iPolitics has learned — from age 65 to octogenarians.

Those members, numbering roughly 83, are among around 403 Rangers who, in response to a call for full-time service amid the coronavirus pandemic, volunteered or consented to take part. Though none of the Rangers, as of now, are permitted to work in contact with individuals who’ve tested positive for COVID-19 or their belongings, the extra risk to the older Rangers presents a new complication.

Conservative MP Michelle Rempel Garner has been working remotely from Oklahoma during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rempel Garner said she travelled to Oklahoma — where her husband and stepchildren live — on an “unexpected and urgent private personal matter” before Canada and the U.S. enacted travel restrictions at the border to stem the spread of the virus.

In a statement, Rempel Garner said she has been in constant contact with Conservative party whip Mark Strahl, and the party has advised her to shelter-in-place and work remotely like other MPs.

Brazil’s president, Jair Bolsonaro, has named a family friend to head the federal police — only days after the country’s justice minister quit over alleged meddling in law enforcement. (Reuters)

Reports of infected medical workers are emerging almost daily in Russia, with more than half the staff and patients at one St. Petersburg hospital having tested positive for COVID-19 in the aftermath of a single patient, in for a routine surgery, developing a fever post-operation. (Associated Press)

Britain is on track to record one of the worst coronavirus death tolls across Europe, after data published on Tuesday showed nationwide fatalities topped 24,000 nine days ago. (Reuters)

And in the U.S., former secretary of state and 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton endorsed former vice president Joseph Biden Jr. in his bid for president on Tuesday — as former top advisors to Senator Bernie Sanders are reportedly forming a super PAC to aid Biden. (New York Times)

The Kicker

Virtual parliament today gave us a glimpse inside the homes of a whole sweep of MPs, who showcased backdrops that ranged from the entirely bland (we’re looking at you, Steven Guilbeault) to the surprising. This colourful piece of art, courtesy of science minister Navdeep Bains, drew its fair share of attention.