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Aaron MannesUniversity of Maryland scholar on terrorism and international affairs :

"Presidential Leadership in Political Time"

Steve Skowronek’s "Presidential Leadership in Political Time" is a profound book that identifies underlying cycles that shape presidencies and presidential legacies.

Based on his 1993 book, "The Politics Presidents Make" (which won the Neustadt Prize for research on the presidency), "Presidential Leadership in Political Time" revisits his initial argument a decade and a half (and two presidencies) later. Skowronek describes the presidency is a force of upheaval and change.

The challenge is in presidential authority - does the president have a warrant for his actions that legitimates them? When presidents lose that warrant, their allies are discouraged and their foes are energized. The great struggle for presidents is to define their actions in terms of a broader purpose that is coherent and consonant with the values of their supporters. But, Skowronek explains that the most important factor in a president’s efforts to legitimate his actions will be the actions of the president before him and that this relies on broader political cycles.

There are four types of presidents

Politics of disjunction: This period occurs when a long-standing political order is no longer capable of addressing the challenges facing the country. The most recent example is Jimmy Carter; others include Hoover, Franklin Pierce, and John Quincy Adams. Not a distinguished list, but Skowronek argues it has less to do with their personal limitations then the pre-existing commitments of their coalition that prevent effective action.

Politics of reconstruction: After the politics of disjunction, a new order overturns the old order’s commitments and takes power. These presidents have freedom to make new commitments and exercise the enormous power of the presidency. Reagan was the most recent example.
Other examples include FDR, Lincoln, Andrew Jackson, Thomas Jefferson, and of course Washington. This looks like a Presidential allstar team, but Skowronek states that the collapse of a long-standing coalition allowed them greater freedom to act.

Politics of articulation: After the new order is established, follow-on presidents face a different set of challenges. They are charged with continuing the vision of the founder - but there is discord within their coalition over implementing the vision. Decisions inevitably alienate factions. This group includes the founder’s immediate successors (Van Buren, Truman, and Bush 41) as well as later followers who attempt to renew the founder’s vision. This group includes Polk, Teddy Roosevelt, LBJ, and Bush 43. This latter group has disproportionately engages in wars of choice and is most likely to serve only one-term or not run for reelection. Since the 1820s only three have won both of their presidential elections (Grant, McKinley, and Bush 43.)

Politics of preemption: Occasionally the non-dominant party elects a president (Andrew Johnson, Cleveland, Wilson, Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama). These presidents usually distance themselves from the past failed order of their party, are less hemmed in by ideology, and adopt policies from the dominant order. Frequently tarred as tricky by their political opponents because of their ideological inconsistency, these presidents have greater freedom of action but are more likely to be impeached (Johnson, Nixon, and Clinton for example.) Many of these presidents have served two terms.

But, just as Clinton sought a “legacy,” many of these presidents seek a defining issue for their presidency.

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