First, we had UK Nationwide House Prices which came out as low as -0.5% so it should have created some sell pressure on GBP/USD. It moved down by about 30 pips, and then it retraced completely before going even lower during European session. I was about BE on that trade but some people managed to make money on the spike.

At 3:30 a.m. we had Swedish GDP which came out a bit higher but it did not move the market well enough. It probably needed a little more deviation here.

At 8:30 we had U.S. Core PCE m/m and it came out 0.1 away from expectations so not enough to trade. However, U.S. Personal Spending did create an interesting move just on 0.2 deviation. It seems the market is waiting for any signs of any good news right now.

U.S. Chicago PMI came out very low. I did not give any triggers so it was a no trade, and that was good because USD/JPY could not really go down.

Let's now talk about Monday.

1. Monday, March 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I am a little worried about this indicator because last month we had 1.9 deviation and it failed to move the market (since the trigger was 2.0, it was a no trade). However, I will try 2.0 trigger again. It is expected to come out at 51. If it comes out at 53 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If it comes out at 49 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. In any event, I would expect 35 pips move.

2. Monday, March 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP m/m coming out. Keep an eye on q/q number because it can create a conflict or deviate even more and support the move. The m/m is more current one, and that's why the market is more focuses on the m/m number. It is expected to come out at -0.1% (some people expect -0.2%). Usually this indicator deviates by 0.1 or 0.2, very rarely by 0.3 from expectations. If it comes out at 0 or higher, assuming the q/q will go the same direction, I would sell on USD/CAD, looking for about 30 pips of price action. If it comes out at -0.3, assuming that q/q would come out the same direction, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 30 pips or more of a price action.

3. Monday, March 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have ISM Manufacturing coming out. I would focus on ISM Manufacturing Index. It is expected to come out at 49 (some people say 48). A deviation of 1.5 to 2.0 is significant on this. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it should be enough to buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD. I think both pairs should be good for this trade, and both pairs had performed well in the past. On either pair I would expect 40 to 45 pips of a price action, in the first 15 minutes of the report. After 15 minutes, it is 50/50 which way it will go, and probably it will depend on technical trading. On the other hand, if it comes out at 47 or lower, I think it may be bad enough to sell USD/JPY or to buy EUR/USD, and also look for 40 to 45 pips of a price action in the first 15 minutes of the report. Because the continuation of the move is not 100% sure, make sure to set up a proper stop loss after 10 to 15 minutes.

4. Monday, March 3rd, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales coming out. Because 3 hours later they are going to have interest rate statement, the Retail Sales can be either more or less in focus - who knows that? It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade it with 0.4 deviation. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or less, I would sell AUD/USD. In either case, I would expect 40 to 50 pips price action in the first hour of the report. You can try to trade AUD/JPY and this pair tends to make more pips but there is not as much liquidity as you can get on AUD/USD, meaning it is harder to get in and the spread can be higher. You can try to split your trades over two pairs.

5. Monday, March 3rd, 2008 (10:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 10:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement coming out. PLEASE WATCH THE VIDEO. To make the long story short, if they don't hike the rates, I would expect AUD/USD to drop by 60 to 70 pips in the first hour of the report. If they hike MORE than expected, that is if they hike by 0.50% (50 bp), I think AUD/USD may go up by 50 pips in the first hour of the report. If it comes out as expected, the price action may depend on comments that will come out right after the announcement. In that case I would stay out unless there is something incredibly obvious in their statement.

Well, it is going to be busy day. I hope we all make some money tomorrow. As always, you can watch more detailed signal by clicking on the video link.

Oh, by the way, if you are interested more in trading news, go to Forex Diamonds - News Trading Education as I am trading there all of mentioned indicators live. Join the room, and get a lot of education from me and other traders that are there. I post trade plans and talk about the trades as well as give entry and exit signal live while the market moves. You can try it with no risk for 21 days so if you don't like it it is free. If you find it useful, then you can stick with us and make grow you live account with us. I am pretty sure you will be satisfied but at least give a try.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!
-Sir Pipsalot

The video with the signal is recorded by Sir Pipsalot.
For your convenience, this text is written based on the video by Crazy Cat

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