October 29, 2013 10:18 PM CDTOctober 30, 2013 10:43 AM CDTSherrington: What we learned from the Dallas Cowboys' first half and why 10-6 is likely out of the picture

Sherrington: What we learned from the Dallas Cowboys' first half and why 10-6 is likely out of the picture

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Nick Wass/AP

Each week during the season, SportsDay columnist and Pro Football Hall of Fame selection committee member Rick Gosselin offers his rankings of the 32 NFL teams. Here's a look at the rankings entering Week 9 of the 2013 season.

Of all the players the Cowboys have signed off a couch this year, Brian Waters was my favorite. He was good, and he was funny, an unbeatable combination. When reporters asked him Sunday about any of the three injuries he suffered against the Lions, he said, “I’m just trying to get out of Detroit alive.”

Alas, he didn’t make it. Waters — who by skill and force of personality had pulled together a tenuous line — apparently joined the Cowboys’ growing list of players done for the season. The list gets better every week. And it doesn’t even include Jay Ratliff, who, for all we know, may yet make the Pro Bowl for some lucky team.

Frankly, this is not what I was counting on when my 10-6 prediction came out. A few injuries, sure. But wholesale turnover? This is what made it hard to rip the defense’s performance Sunday. How do you knock guys you’ve never heard of? The defense played hard, even valiantly. One minute, they’re hobbling off; the next, stealing back. It was like watching the Black Knight defend a bridge in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. They didn’t offer much resistance, but they were plenty game on their last leg.

Unfortunately, they don’t give out medals in the NFL, only trophies.

Could the Cowboys still win the NFC East? Absolutely. Could they still go 10-6? Mathematically speaking, yes.

Realistically, no.

Before we take the games in no particular order, consider what we learned from the season’s first half:

The Cowboys’ defense can’t handle a good quarterback, which is basically all you need to know.

Of the Cowboys’ four losses, three came against quarterbacks now among the top 10 in passer ratings: Peyton Manning (first), Philip Rivers (second) and Matthew Stafford (10th).

Alex Smith, the nickel-and-dimer, is only 18th, but the Chiefs have the league’s best defense.

On the back half of the schedule, the Cowboys still have New Orleans’ Drew Brees (third in ratings) and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers (fourth). At least they get the Packers at home on Dec. 15. They have to play the Saints next week in the Superdome. Yes, they won there as recently as 2009, but unless DeMarcus Ware returns at a level he hasn’t played at all season, the prospects of another upset don’t look so hot.

What wins can you reasonably count on then? Any game against a team that doesn’t have a good quarterback.

Come Sunday, the Cowboys face the Vikings, who are to quarterbacks what the Cowboys are to defensive linemen. Every week, it’s someone else. The Vikes would be better off snapping the ball directly to Adrian Peterson and cutting out the middle man altogether.

Another pretty good bet: Oakland in JerryWorld on Thanksgiving. Over the last decade, 17 different quarterbacks have started for the Raiders. Terrelle Pryor has done nothing to distinguish himself from a long line of predecessors. At this rate, Tim Tebow is bound to turn up.

With the Saints and Packers probable losses, and the Vikings and Raiders probable wins, here’s where the schedule gets tricky.

Yes, the Cowboys still have three games left vs. the NFC East, which may be the good news.

Bad news: I think the Giants are getting better.

The Giants got off on the wrong foot when the Cowboys picked off Eli Manning three times in the opener. Over the next five games, all losses, he threw 12 more interceptions.

In wins over Minnesota and Philadelphia, though, Manning didn’t throw any picks. He may be settling into a groove. At any rate, he remains a dangerous quarterback, especially against a secondary that could still be without Morris Claiborne or Barry Church on Nov. 24 in the Meadowlands.

As for Washington and Philadelphia, those games don’t seem as problematic. Once again, it’s because of the quarterback position. Playing on a bum knee every week won’t make Robert Griffin III’s injury any better by the end of the season. That’s not how knee rehab generally works.

The Eagles? The Cowboys provided a blueprint for stopping Chip Kelly’s offense — man up on the receivers, bring the safety up on run support — which the Giants gladly followed.

And that leaves the Bears in Chicago on Dec. 9. Before the season started, I figured the Bears and Lions were swing games. The Cowboys had to beat one of them to go 10-6. Had they simply held on Sunday, they’d have made me look good.

They could still beat the Bears, but it just got harder with the loss of Waters, not to mention the fact that Jay Cutler will be back.

And then there’s this, too: From here on out, the Cowboys’ schedule will be harder because every game whittles away at their talent base, which wasn’t deep to begin with. Before this season is over, they may all be glad to get out alive.

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About Kevin Sherrington

Kevin Sherrington, a general sports columnist, was born in Dallas and grew up in Houston. He has worked at five newspapers in Texas. He has worked at The Dallas Morning News since 1985. He had no idea his career would come to blogging.