Underclassmen Affect Heat More Than Lottery Luck

As has become an annual rite of spring, the list of underclassmen who bolt prematurely for the NBA will weigh heavily on the fate of those teams, such as the Heat, that staggered into the lottery.

Even though the Heat may not luck into one of the top three picks at the NBA Draft Lottery next Sunday, the availability of Joe Smith and Rasheed Wallace nonetheless will affect Miami's selection.

Among the underclassmen who have entered the draft are Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse of North Carolina, Smith of Maryland, Corliss Williamson and Scotty Thurman of Arkansas and Rashard Griffith of Wisconsin. That likely will leave players such as Duke's Cherokee Parks, Arizona State's Mario Bennett or Texas Christian's Kurt Thomas available for the Heat.

Tonight is the deadline for players to notify the NBA of their early entry into the draft. An official list will be released Thursday, but that list has never included an unexpected, prominent name. Elite players who intend to skip some school generally hold a news conference.

Alas, the absence of public appearances means that Tim Duncan of Wake Forest, Marcus Camby of Massachusetts, Kerry Kittles of Villanova and Erick Dampier of Mississippi State likely will remain in school.

The best of those who have declared for early entry are Wallace, Stackhouse, Smith, Williamson, Thurman, Bennett, Antonio McDyess of Alabama and Gary Trent of Ohio. The intention of Chicago high school star Kevin Garnett to skip college and go directly to the NBA adds drama to the draft.

Smith and the two Tar Heels likely will be the first three players selected. The order will depend on the preference of the teams that emerge from the lottery with the first three picks.

"Those guys appear to be significantly better than everybody else and it's very difficult to pass on them," said Chris Wallace, the Heat's director of college and international scouting.

The list of early entries will allow the Heat to refine its focus on the field of players it will consider. The Heat could receive an additional first-round pick (Atlanta's) to complete the deal that sent Kevin Willis to Miami for Steve Smith and Grant Long earlier this year. The Hawks have the choice of surrendering their first-round pick this year or next year.

"The problem is until you see who else is coming out, you don't get an idea of what the draft is going to be about," said Dave Wohl, the Heat's executive vice president of basketball operations.

The list of underclassmen, coupled with the lottery, will go a long way toward bringing order to the draft. Then comes a final evaluation camp in early June in Chicago intermixed with private interviews and workouts with teams.

Selecting an underclassman doesn't guarantee that player will be available immediately. A player is allowed to change his mind within 30 days after the draft and return to college. Last year, Minnesota's Voshon Lenard and Georgia's Charles Claxton, selected in the second round by the Bucks and Suns, opted to return to school. The teams retain their rights even after this year's draft.

Wohl said he wouldn't shy away from selecting an underclassman with the Heat's first pick.

"I think if you're drafting that high, a top 10 pick, I don't think there's much of a risk a guy is going to go back," Wohl said.

The risk may be more on a younger player's physical and emotional maturity. In last year's lottery, Grant Hill, who stayed four seasons at Duke, clearly emerged as the most polished prospect. This year, the most mature player among the elite may be Ed O'Bannon, who spent five years at UCLA.

At the top of the draft, any concerns about intangibles will be overridden by the impressive talent of sophomores Wallace, Smith and Stackhouse. But expectations must be realistic.

"You can't be discouraged if they don't become a star right away," Wohl said. "If [Stackhouse) doesn't turn into a star his first year, I don't think you can get down on him."