I hope you are well in the year 2017 started. The past year was not easy for us. Brexit, Donald Trump, the manipulations of the ECB. Whenever we thought we could foresee the future in some way, we were struck by the bill. Anyone who wanted to make money or protect his assets had to be flexible. And keep your eye on the situation. As soon as the year is around, 2017 is coming.

And one thing is for sure dear readers: Even the coming year will not be easier! The core questions are: What are the central themes and what influences the financial world?

These are the topics 2017

On the one hand, Donald Trump and his policy are the main focus. On the other hand the Brexit is supposedly carried out. There are also elections in four European countries. And the ECB’s further approach.

All this will depend on the direction in which the gigantic money flows will move in the coming year.

In the US, Donald Trump takes out the big club. The new US president will go through his thing. Make America Great Again, he has put himself on the flag – whether you like it or not. In order to achieve his goal, he will set all the levers in motion. And get every financial syrup out of the drawer.

No matter how he does it, his billions will land sooner or later in Germany. There is no way around the German economy. Germany will be one of the countries that will benefit from the new president’s policy.

European stock exchanges before violent turbulence

The elections in Europe are the major uncertainties. I expect greater legal pressure in most countries. With unpredictable consequences for Europe. For the stock exchanges and for the euro are the heavy loads and should not be underestimated. Whenever it becomes quiet, and the markets have a certain stability, severe burglaries must be expected. Volatility continues to be the great magic word for 2017!

What will the ECB do?

The policy of the ECB hovers above all of this. As in the last few years, she must keep the shop together.

Without the ECB, nothing will happen in Europe. It must keep the markets stable with trillions. Avoid even greater imbalances. This will still work in the coming year. At least in the first half of the year.

With which we are already in the outlook for 2017, dear readers. Even if a forecast this year is not easy.

Stock exchanges with strong half-year

On the exchanges, I expect the extremely strong upward trend of the last few weeks to continue in the first few months. The DAX could reach new all-time highs. The Dow Jones should loosely skip the mark of 20,000. The Donald Trump effect and the ultralock monetary policy of the ECB are likely to provide further impetus.

Disillusionment in the course of the year

For the second half of the year, however, I reckon with violent turmoil. A stock market crash can not be ruled out. The trump effect will eventually fade. He will not be able to implement many of his ideas.

The crisis in Europe will continue to intensify. The euro continues to lose ground. The ECB will no longer be in a position to control the chaos.

The bottom line, therefore, I expect for the coming year with moderate losses.

My favorites in the first months of the year are mainly cyclical stocks. The Donald Trump effect is likely to benefit primarily from steel processing, mechanical engineering and chemicals.

Despite a strong recovery in recent weeks, one should avoid banking activities. The uncertainty about the future of Europe is likely to impinge on the bank shares sooner or later. Even automotive stocks are not among my favorites. The entire industry continues to struggle with enormous problems.

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Thomas Schwarzer is the capital market expert from PRONOMIO. As an experienced economics and stock market journalist, he has been dealing with the financial world for more than 30 years.
Schwarzer worked for ten years at the news station N24 as an economic moderator, reporter and expert. Almost daily, he arranged economic events for the camera, analyzed the markets and gave viewers help with their daily decisions. At Börse Online, he worked as a stock exchange correspondent and reported daily on the events on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
As a radio speaker, he has provided stock market reports several times daily. He has also been active as a trader in recent years. He learned the craft in Canada, where he worked on the floor of the Toronto Stock Exchange. He now pens the Pronomio Brief.

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