The author of this piece is suspect, but because even a broken watch is accurate twice a day let me ask my American friends if they have noticed canned food shortages where they shop.

The article shows a number of store shelves where the shops are blaming crop failure for their inability to stock canned goods. I haven't experienced anything similar here in Canada, but I'm curious about the situation in the States.

The author of this piece is suspect, but because even a broken watch is accurate twice a day let me ask my American friends if they have noticed canned food shortages where they shop.

The article shows a number of store shelves where the shops are blaming crop failure for their inability to stock canned goods. I haven't experienced anything similar here in Canada, but I'm curious about the situation in the States.

I have noticed it here in a Michigan. In Michigan, the typical harvest start for sweet corn is Aug 1. Illinois may be a week or so earlier, so this is nothing new. Although most corn grown in Illinois is feed corn.

I have noticed it here in a Michigan. In Michigan, the typical harvest start for sweet corn is Aug 1. Illinois may be a week or so earlier, so this is nothing new. Although most corn grown in Illinois is feed corn.

Thanks Kat

My health's been lousy and I haven't been shopping for months so I really don't really know what the situation is here in Canada. My better half hasn't noticed anything out of the ordinary.

One would think that this would be the season for abundant crops, but the modern system of "just in time" warehousing may preclude large stores of surplus.

If canned beans and corn are in low supply now it might be a problem come winter.Terry

Also known as the Humboldt squid, these large, predatory creatures are targets of the world’s biggest invertebrate fishery, commercially fished in Peru, Chile and Baja California. In 2008 the Gulf of California jumbo squid fishery employed over 1,500 fishing vessels and was the fourth largest fishery in all of Mexico. By 2015, it had completely collapsed, and as of yet shows no sign of recovery.

...

They found that long-standing currents and circulation patterns within the Gulf of California have shifted over the past decade. Previously, warm-water El Niño conditions that are inhospitable to the large squid were followed by cool-water La Niña phases, allowing the system to recover and recuperate. In recent years La Niña has been conspicuously absent, resulting in increasingly tropical waters across the region. As these waters warm, cooler, nutrient-rich waters ideal for both the jumbo squid and their prey have become scarce.

In response to new, warmer ocean conditions the squid limit their growth, shorten their life span and reproduce earlier. As a result, smaller, more difficult to catch and less profitable squid have become the norm, shuttering the entire squid fishing industry in the region.

“You can think of it as a sort of oceanographic drought,” Frawley said. “Until the cool-water conditions we associate with elevated primary and secondary production return, jumbo squid in the Gulf of California are likely to remain small.”

kassyWatched a documentary featuring both the Giant Squid & the fishermen within the last year or so. What a shame that they're both now a thing of the past.I wonder if Bruce knows of similar changes occurring further north on the Pacific Coast? Are the squid there also feeling the burn?

I believe that between the two voyages Dana wrote of in "Two Years Before the Mast" Prevailing winds and water temperatures experienced a large shift near California's coast. I'd always assumed his observations amounted to nothing more than an extended El Nino followed by an extended La Nina, but possibly the difference in land use due to the end of the Hacienda System in California, followed closely by the destruction of the Gold Rush could have silted up huge, formerly more productive waters.

If so the Californian ecology we're all familiar with may have been quite short lived.Terry

Humboldt Squid have been making forays north into the Calif Current for a long time, I remember dead ones on the beach 50 years ago. They are seasonal visitors although there has been some rare spawning in Monterey bay. Here is a Cal COFI report from ten years ago.

These squid have a voracious appetite and they have an ability to dive into hypoxic waters , travel and feed there. Gives them some advantages over other predators . We don't usually target them commercially because they have to be skinned and the labor is prohibitive.

Humboldt Squid have been making forays north into the Calif Current for a long time, I remember dead ones on the beach 50 years ago. They are seasonal visitors although there has been some rare spawning in Monterey bay. Here is a Cal COFI report from ten years ago.

These squid have a voracious appetite and they have an ability to dive into hypoxic waters , travel and feed there. Gives them some advantages over other predators . We don't usually target them commercially because they have to be skinned and the labor is prohibitive.

Thanks Bruce

I've never seen one, possibly because the little sports diving I did was centered around Catalina and the So. Beaches.It sounds as though there may be a large enough remnant for them to survive, even if in a smaller guise. Perhaps lessening their predation will save other more stressed species.

Terry , I looked up landings and the Peruvian fishery has recovered over the last three years with 300,000 tons landed last year. Also from the old CalCOFI report that Humboldt squid populations in the Calif. Current were documented in the thirties,disappeared until the seventies when I first saw them and then dissappeared again until the nineties. Haven't heard much about them recently so maybe they are gone again around here.

Extreme heat wave hits US farmers already suffering from flooding• In the past year, torrential rains have dumped water on U.S. farmers’ lands, destroying acreage and delaying crops from getting planted on time.• Now, farmers face yet another hurdle: a stifling heat wave that’s spreading across the United States, expected to be the worst in the farm states including Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois.• “Every time we think we catch a break, it’s just another issue we have to solve,” Adam Jones, a 28-year-old organic farmer from Central Illinois, tells CNBC.https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-farmers-already-suffering-from-flooding.html

Logged

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Terry , I looked up landings and the Peruvian fishery has recovered over the last three years with 300,000 tons landed last year. Also from the old CalCOFI report that Humboldt squid populations in the Calif. Current were documented in the thirties,disappeared until the seventies when I first saw them and then dissappeared again until the nineties. Haven't heard much about them recently so maybe they are gone again around here.

Thanks BruceGlad to hear they're abundant somewhere.

Is this kind of on again/off again behavior normal off the California coast? Do other species act in similar ways? Are other fishing regions away from the Humboldt current or the California current experiencing fluxes of various species?Terry

An article featured in the journal Invasive Plant Science and Management shows climate and elevated levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) are influencing how weeds evolve and may actually contribute to the development of herbicide resistance.

After a review of the available literature, the authors compiled several key findings about the role climate plays in weed evolution:

- Evidence suggests elevated CO2 may contribute to weeds developing greater competitive abilities and resistance to herbicides.- Adaptive evolution is likely common among weeds due to the combination of two factors: the strong selective pressures exerted by changes in climate and the unique characteristics of weed populations, including short lifecycles, strong dispersal abilities and ample genetic variation.- Weed evolution is influenced by both the direct effects of climate change on the environment, as well as its many indirect effects, such as changing fire patterns, new crop introductions and altered herbicide effectiveness.- Weed traits—such as growth rates and lifecycle events—have been found to vary predictably with variations in climate. In addition, drought and elevated CO2 have been observed to cause genetic and phenotypic changes within individual weed populations.

I'm reminded of the 'experiment' our family conducted in our northeastern New Mexico (semi-arid) home in the 1960s. There was a particular milkweed my dad wanted exterminated, and we learned that it'd grow back from the roots (so no simple hoeing) and a cut/pulled plant would flower [from no apparent flower buds when pulled] if left to rot on the ground, so I did lots of digging up and trashing these mostly 25-50 cm tall (when mature) plants. After several years of 'management' of our several acre (~2 ha) property, I noticed all of the milkweeds in our yard (after our being away for two months during the summer), except along the property boundary, were 5-10 cm tall when they blossomed. Obviously, they 'learned' to hide. (I searched, but couldn't find the plant on the internet - family next!)

.. that is rather similar to 'weeds' that are regularly mown .. Dandilions will soon become prostrate in leaf and flower .. I always use this example when I am assured plants have no memory or intelligence . b.c.

Dunkin' Brands (DNKN - Get Report) on Wednesday became the latest fast-food chain to jump on board with meatless meat maker Beyond Meat (BYND) , announcing it is rolling out a new plant-based menu option for Manhattan diners looking for a sausage breakfast sandwich without actual sausage.

Starting Wednesday, breakfast sandwich-seeking New Yorkers will be able to sink their teeth into the Beyond Sausage Breakfast Sandwich, available now at participating Dunkin' restaurants in Manhattan with plans for a future national rollout. ...

German pharmaceutical giant Bayer said Tuesday it is now targeted in some 18,400 US legal cases over glyphosate, a key herbicide ingredient that plaintiffs say caused grave illnesses like cancer.

"As of July 11, 2019, lawsuits from approximately 18,400 plaintiffs had been served in the United States in connection with the crop protection product glyphosate," Bayer said in a statement.

In April, the number of cases stood at 13,400.

In the first few cases to be heard, juries in lower courts have found in favour of plaintiffs, agreeing that blood cancer non-Hodgkins lymphoma had been caused by glyphosate-containing products, including Monsanto's flagship Roundup weedkiller.

In post-trial revisions of the verdicts, judges have stopped short of overturning jury decisions while reducing damages awards.

Last week, a spectacular two-billion-dollar payout was slashed to $87 million in the case of California couple Alva and Alberta Pilliod.

Bosses say they are confident that the weight of scientific evidence is on their side and that they can prevail before American appeals courts, which do not have juries.

------------------------------

How To Bribe a Judge - Thief (1981)

Logged

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

In the past decade both laboratory and free-air studies have shown that crops of many dietary staples, including wheat, barley, rice, potatoes, and soybeans, develop lower concentrations of iron, zinc, protein, and other nutrients crucial to human health when they are grown under elevated levels of carbon dioxide. However, the specific implications of these changes for global health have been difficult to estimate, in part because these calculations are based upon experimental data that can take years to generate.

Now a recent study in the AGU journal GeoHealth finds declines in B-vitamin concentrations in rice grown under elevated carbon dioxide concentrations may increase the future health risks of large numbers of people around the globe.

Because rice provides 19% of the calories that people consume worldwide, B-vitamin deficiencies due to higher carbon dioxide concentrations could have major global health implications in the future.

Many developing countries depend on rice as a primary source of many B vitamins.

As a result of the projected changes in B vitamins in rice, "tens of millions of people will be at risk of developing new B-vitamin deficiencies, with all the health implications that come with them," ... "It's pretty striking, given that we're only talking about one food," he said.

"A new experimental study looking at riboflavin, folate, and thiamin in rice showed there were big drops in all those B vitamins," said Smith. With those losses averaging 17 to 30 percent—much higher than what has been observed for other nutrients in rice—the researchers wondered what the health implications would be for what Smith described as "the single-most important food calorically in the world."

... these results are just the proverbial tip of the iceberg, according to Smith. ... "There are over two billion people who are currently deficient in one or more of these nutrients," said Smith.

Here's What Fruits And Vegetables Looked Like Before We Domesticated Them

Quote

Next time you bite into a slice of watermelon or a cob of corn, consider this: these familiar fruits and veggies didn't always look and taste this way.

Genetically modified foods, or GMOs, inspire strong reactions nowadays, but humans have been tweaking the genetics of our favourite produce for millennia....From bananas to eggplant, here are some of the foods that looked totally different before humans first started growing them for food. ...

My only gripe is that they claim 50% of the changes to corn came about after Europeans arrived?

I've a friend who lectures on the spread of corn through the Americas. The photos/drawings he uses in his presentations show relatively modern appearing corn appearing in Anastazi ruins dating to ~1,200 CE. The traditional corn soups his wife serves at home are delicious.

The cobs were smaller, and generally had fewer rows, but otherwise could easily be mistaken for a bad exemplar of the modern product.

When Champlain arrived near modern Midlands Ontario his crew noted the magnificent fields of flint corn that seemingly stretched to the horizon. When the natives wanted to make themselves scarce they hid in the tall corn rather than escaping into the nonexistent forests. Many desiccated cobs from the era can be seen in local museums.

"The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself."

"The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself."

"I've never seen that before in July," Štimac says. "I think climate change has shifted the seasons. It just keeps getting warmer. The last three years there was no spring, no fall, just long, hot summer. The trees aren't sure what to do. They need the seasons. They need a cool time to rest and rain in the spring."

Logged

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

"I've never seen that before in July," Štimac says. "I think climate change has shifted the seasons. It just keeps getting warmer. The last three years there was no spring, no fall, just long, hot summer. The trees aren't sure what to do. They need the seasons. They need a cool time to rest and rain in the spring."

Anecdotal journalism at its best! So, fig and almond trees at ONE grower are struggling in Croatia due to something (she thinks it is the heat spikes). And yet they grow in Egypt where it is at least 5 C warmer in every month and have extreme heatwaves. C'mon! You can do better than that

"I've never seen that before in July," Štimac says. "I think climate change has shifted the seasons. It just keeps getting warmer. The last three years there was no spring, no fall, just long, hot summer. The trees aren't sure what to do. They need the seasons. They need a cool time to rest and rain in the spring."

Anecdotal journalism at its best! So, fig and almond trees at ONE grower are struggling in Croatia due to something (she thinks it is the heat spikes). And yet they grow in Egypt where it is at least 5 C warmer in every month and have extreme heatwaves. C'mon! You can do better than that

Don't be so dismissive. I try to remember to do a google before ........

There is not one variety of fig or almond.Growers have often bred them for their local climate.

The wheat grown on the Great Plains was bred in the 19th Century to withstand the relatively extreme climate there.

If the climate changes there will be problems with flowering times and yield. (Just about all plants have flowers).______________________________________________________________________There are over 700 named varieties of fig trees, but many of them are of no use to home gardeners. All of the varieties fall into four fig types: Caprifigs – Caprifigs only produce male flowers and never bear fruit.5 Apr 2018

Two types of almonds can be distinguished, those with soft shell, mainly produced in California, and those with hard shell, like the Spanish varieties Marcona and Desmayo or many of the produced in Portugal.

Different types of almonds can be distinguished according to their taste and uses. The "sweet almonds", consumed as dry fruit may have soft or hard shells; the " bitter almonds" have a strong bitter flavour due to a glucoside called amygdalin (in sweet almonds it disappears almost completely when they mature); they are used in the food and agriculture industry to obtain oil, for instance. The green almonds have not undergone the fruit set.

Classifications are based on the hardness of the shell; thus, in Spain there are almonds with soft shell like the " Mollar de Tarragona " and " Fitas" from Ibiza, which are very appreciated in the European markets thanks to their exquisite flavour, colour and presentation. The most important hard shell commercial varieties are Marcon , Planeta, Llargueta, Rumbeta, Doble Fina and Desmayo. In Spain, many local varieties are produced in each region, among which stand out Marcona and Desmayo largueta. Nevertheless, other foreign varieties with late flowering have spread, like the Italian "Tuono" and "Cristomorto’ or the French "Ferragnès" and "Ferraduel". There are some types without a specific denomination that come from seeds with the generic name " Comunes". Some new varieties obtained in Spanish improvement programs have also spread, highlighting Masbovera and Guara.

In France, the almonds with soft shell are known from the old times as " princesses" or " fines"; the semisoft ones are called " amandes des dames" and those with hard shell are the ‘beraudes", " molières" or " caillasses" . Some varieties cultivated in France are Ai, Ardechoise, Sultana, Beautiful of Aurons, Ferragnès, Ferraduel, Ferralise and Ferrastar, among others.

In Italy, the varieties are classified according to their place of origin: those coming from Puglia and from Sicily, the main almond tree production locations in Italy. The varieties of Puglia are Tuono, Filippo Ceo, Genco, Cristomorto, Fragiulio, Rachele, etc. The Sicilian varieties are d"Avola Pizzuta, Fasciuneddu, Romana, Avola R. 40, Cavaliera and Bonifacio nº 1.

In California, the greater production is soft shell almonds. Some varieties, from the oldest to the most recent ones are Nonpareil, IXL, Ne plus ultra, Texas, Davey, Tardy Nonpareil, Thompson, Ballico, Merced, Ruby, Carmel, Butte, Price, etc. Some of them are the result of crosses between them, that is to say, they are hybrids.

Logged

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!""And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

You are right about this gerontocrat. I myself grow 4 fig varieties (Ronde de Bordeaux, Desert King, Brown Turkey, and one unnamed local). As their names suggest they are bred for very different climates yet they all grow quite well here, in a climate that is less than ideal for figs. I have many different fruit trees, grapes and vegetables and planty ornamentals besides.

My problem with articles like this is that they take anecdotal evidence and make it into baseless climate change scaremongering.

Have we got a problem growing figs? find statistics on figs produced in Croatia or Turkey or whatever. We can prove it if it is true.

Have we got heat spikes in the mediterranean? We have 100+ years of daily temperature observations. We can prove it if it is true.

We have all the hard data we need to substantiate trends related to food production and yet these articles - instead of hard data - use mere gossip. That is pathetic. And guess what: we are growing more and more food, while only 12% of land is used as cropland, and we grow animal feed on half of that, meaning that if noone ate meat, cca 8% of the globe would be enough for 7 bn people. We can easily feed 10 bn, no problem. Food is not an issue in this game.

Agricultural land (% of land area)Agricultural land refers to the share of land area that is arable, under permanent crops, and under permanent pastures. Arable land includes land defined by the FAO as land under temporary crops (double-cropped areas are counted once), temporary meadows for mowing or for pasture, land under market or kitchen gardens, and land temporarily fallow. Land abandoned as a result of shifting cultivation is excluded. Land under permanent crops is land cultivated with crops that occupy the land for long periods and need not be replanted after each harvest, such as cocoa, coffee, and rubber. This category includes land under flowering shrubs, fruit trees, nut trees, and vines, but excludes land under trees grown for wood or timber. Permanent pasture is land used for five or more years for forage, including natural and cultivated crops.

In theory I agree that it would be much better for the planet if there were only 1 or 2 bln people but the reality is that we will likely top out at around 10 bn during this century (but will probably go lower later). However, as I have shown above, food will not be a problem even for 10 bln - if people will be content with a mostly vegetarian diet.

If a tree grows in certain location that is proof the the micro climate at the location of the tree was suitable for such tree. If the climate changes after a tree grew, the new climate might or might not be favorable to such tree. If the new climate is favorable the tree survives. If it isn't the tree dies. There are of course issues like fruit yield to consider, but that's the gist of it.

The anecdotal story described above is likely happening all over the world. It is exactly what is expected to happen to trees in a changing climate. If it is not detectable yet, it will soon be.

Quote

However, as I have shown above, food will not be a problem even for 10 bln

Where did you show that?

Logged

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

1. No need for anecdotal stories, we have hard data about yields2. I repeat what I wrote above: 12% of land is used to feed 7 bn with lots of (ineffective) animal products. Half of cropland is used for animal feed. Go figure the rest.

1. No need for anecdotal stories, we have hard data about yields2. I repeat what I wrote above: 12% of land is used to feed 7 bn with lots of (ineffective) animal products. Half of cropland is used for animal feed. Go figure the rest.

Not only that, but the percentage of arable land required has decreased significantly since 1980.

If a tree grows in certain location that is proof the the micro climate at the location of the tree was suitable for such tree. If the climate changes after a tree grew, the new climate might or might not be favorable to such tree. If the new climate is favorable the tree survives. If it isn't the tree dies. There are of course issues like fruit yield to consider, but that's the gist of it.

2. Statistics

Quote

12% of land is used to feed 7 bn with lots of (ineffective) animal products. Half of cropland is used for animal feed. Go figure the rest.

The biophysics I mentioned are as true as gravity. The statistics you mention are real and also true. How? Human ingenuity. While natural trees are fully exposed to climate change, crop trees are taken care by humans who are highly adaptable. Thus even if the climate changes unfavorably humans can take measures ( irrigation, shadows, medicine, heat and cold protection, etc) to give the tree a favorable environment.

Is there a limit to how much humans can create adaptations for trees? There must be. Everything else in the world has limits, why not trees?

When are we hitting these limits? I don't know, but I do know that if we ignore the limits and pretend everything is fine the limit has higher chances to be reached earlier. If we tackle the problem head on and prepare for everything we can prepare for, the trees have much better chance.

Logged

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

In theory I agree that it would be much better for the planet if there were only 1 or 2 bln people but the reality is that we will likely top out at around 10 bn during this century (but will probably go lower later). However, as I have shown above, food will not be a problem even for 10 bln - if people will be content with a mostly vegetarian diet.

You are assuming efficient logistics...and water availability where is needed...

I am not assuming anything, i am just pointing out that even for 10 bn people only 8-10% of all land needs to be farmed (if mostly on a vegetarian diet). Given that a warmer planet is a wetter planet, i think we will find that 8-10% somewhere (and no, we do not need to clear any more forests for that!).

And yes, logistics matters, but I see no reason why it would fail. Since it works and has been working for centuries it needs quite strong proof why it would not work.

Also, I strongly believe in regenerative agriculture, having seen with my own eyes that plants in good, healthy soil yield a lot even without any pesticides, herbicides, etc. and are very resistant to disease and drought. I try to grow part of my own food and it is amazing how much can be grown in a small area...

Almost a decade ago I was taking an intro physics course. We were assigned a paper on energy production and what should humanity do to power the world.

I wrote a very dry paper on how humanity needs to shift from fossil fuels to nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc.

Once my teacher had graded them all, he announced that ZERO students had written about simply reducing energy consumption. That has stuck with me for 9 years. And it is still relevant today.

We built the dam, then we engineer a crazy fish shuttle and hire people to push fish through the entrance all day. All we actually had to do was not build the dam.

I think we have really forgotten the lesson that sometimes less is more. We create the problem, solve the problem in an absolutely insane way, and declare victory. But we had already won and been winning for thousands of years before the dam was built.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 11:14:04 AM by Ktb »

Logged

I have amazing news for you. Man is not alone on this planet. He is part of a community, upon which he depends absolutely.- Ishmael

I've only experienced one salmon run. In Alaska in 1968 at an unremembered shallow "river" the fish were so thick that you would have had difficulty stepping into the stream without stepping on a fish.It was like a stream of fish moving counter to an equal volume of water moving in the opposite direction - mesmerizing and distracting - a companion fell over having lost his balance staring into the conflicting flows.

The idea of having a man handling each fish individually is laughable, or rather it would have been laughable at that time and place.Terry

Irmak and Kukal found that the yield gaps—differences in food produced with irrigation vs. rainfall alone—generally widened over that span, a trend they suspect stems partly from climate change and technological advances in irrigation management.

Irmak and Kukal likewise quantified the number of years that given counties failed to generate any meaningful yields of a crop when relying only on rainfall, which some farmers might factor into long-term risk assessments, the researchers said.

"There's a bigger risk with rain-fed (agriculture)," Irmak said. "There's an overall, long-term average value for rain-fed yields, but that doesn't mean you are going to get that yield every year. That's why we consider irrigation an insurance policy that normalizes things and provides stable productivity under varying climatic conditions."

... "Irrigation on 24 percent of the cultivated land produces 40 percent of the total global food supply," Irmak said. "If we stopped irrigating today, more people would suffer or worse due to substantially reduced food, fiber and feed production, especially in areas that are already experiencing a significant shortage of supplies.

Logged

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late