I've been reading up on this like everyday for the last three weeks. Mainly because I"m concerned what will happen to Pitt if there is any other conference realignment.

Basically:

1) A&M is fed up with the Big XII and Texas. Unlike last year, they definitely have the votes to move forward this year. Their BOR meet today, not to vote on whether to move or not, but to see if the president has the ok to make the move if they feel it is appropriate.

2) Rumor is (from Chip Brown, the guy that broke all of the Pac 16 stuff last year) that the SEC voted no to invite A&M mainly because they will not approach any schools to break up a conference. However, if someone approaches them, they will decide to vote on admission. This is for two main purposes: 1) to cover their asses of any lawsuits that said they are trying to destroy a conference (ala the BE trying to sue the ACC) and 2) PR, they don't want to be known as the bad guys, but if someone comes to them, they can decide. Chip brown stated that the breaks were tapped on this move so both A&M and the SEC can close any loopholes that could land them in trouble, and also so both sides can properly think and proceed through this. Brown stated that an announcement of A&M to the SEC could come in the next 3 weeks. So it isn't dead yet.

3) With that said, another reason the SEC tapped the breaks is because they need to find a 14th school if A&M does come, it doesn't have to be today, but sometime in the near future. The problem is, they don't want to raid. So they need a program that they would accept come and approach them. I think that is why you hear names thrown out there, OU, Mizzou, FSU, Clemson, VT, WVU, etc. It might be the SEC saying "hey, if you are interested, let us know". However, they have to work through a lot to cover themselves just like they have to with A&M.

4) As for the Big XII, if Mizzou or OU decide to leave, the conference is done. If they decide to stay and make it work with the 9 teams, then look for them to invite at least 1 more, and possibly 3. Rumor is the following are candidates: BYU, TCU, Louisville, Colorado State, and Houston. Louisville and TCU already stated publicly they are not interested, but that could just be cover up. Who knows.

5) If the ACC does lose a team, the rumor is the replacement will come from the BE, and it will be one of the "legacy" schools of Pitt, WVU, Cuse, Uconn or RU. People presume Syracuse, but a lot has changed in the past 8 year. Their facilities are garbage, their FB team has been crap, and their BB team hasn't done as much. And they are on the private side which the ACC has enough of already. I've read where it woudl probably come down to 1 or 3 of Pitt, WVU and/or RU. And I know people say the ACC would not invite WVU due to academics, but if they lost Clemson or FSU, this is about money and WVU fits the mold for one of the better FB fanbases/FB schools and would replace what they are losing. FSU doen'st have the best academics in the world, but they are in the ACC for this very purpose.

6) That said, if the move does take place, I think the BE is the biggest loser out of all of this. Especially if the 14th team comes from the ACC. That would mean not only would they lose a team to the ACC, but they may lose 1 or 2 to the Big XII. This at a time where it looked like the BE may be receiving a larger contract per school than the ACC.

It will be an interesting next 3 weeks. It's not a dead deal yet. I think everyone wants to step back and take a breather and think this through. However, I would expect widespread conference realignment, at least not yet. The SEC may go to 14, but unless OU wants to go to the Pac 12, I don't see any other movement other than the ACC replacing their missing piece. Now, if the SEC can convince Mizzou to come on over/if they even want them, that may kill the Big XII and set off a chain reaction.

thehockeyguru wrote:Sounds like UT is on the road to being an independent.

I don't think they are. I don't think they want to be. They want the Big XII to hold together. They need to be in a conference for their other sports to work out on the LHN. Unlike ND, who has the luxurary of being in a conference that is set up so weird, half the teams don't play FB, Texas won't have that option.

If they go independent, then their other sports will most likely be moving to Conf USA, the MWC, or even the watered down WAC. And there isn't much must see tv there.

Their AD has stated independence is a last resort for them. Their main focus is to hold the Big XII together at all cost. IF for some reason the Big XII falls apart, they have been in talks with ND to possibly form some sort of losely affilated conference of their own. Where the other sports play each other like they are conference members, but FB will only partially play. And each individual memember can have their own media rights.

thehockeyguru wrote:You cant create the Longhorn network and expect the Big 12 to cater to its needs. The creation of that network almost ensures that the Big 12 implodes.

It only implodes if the other schools want to leave. And outside of OU and A&M (hence why they get a bigger payout), no other school has an invite to come join another conference that would be more lucrative than the one they are currently in.

A&M is trying to get out, but OU has stated they want to stick with Texas and continue to make this work. And w/o them leaving, OSU, TT, Baylor, et al have no where else to go. THe Kansas schools and Mizzou have open invites to the Big East, but they are not going to leave the Big XII to go to the Big East for a number of reason, but the main one is, even though they are under Texas rule, they still make more money in the Big XII than they would in the Big East.

The only way the Big XII blows up is 1) if OU has enough and approaches the Pac 12, taking OSU with them or 2) the SEC asks Mizzou to be their 14th and Mizzou accepts.

The Big XII will just ask Houston, BYU or someone to replace A&M. Those schools are deseperate to get into a BCS conference and will readily accept.

As long as OU is ok with the LHN, there isn't many options for the other universities.

Point Breeze Penguins wrote:It is almost like going out on dates while still married and wondering why your spouse gets upset.

I agree. The other schools hate it. However, there is no where else to go that is a better overall situation. OU (and A&M) are the only two with that option. That is why they get paid more from their TV contract than the other schools, to keep them happy. A&M had enough, but so far everything I have read, OU wants to keep this thing together. And if they are on board, the other 7 schools have no other options unless they want to accept more money and create more travel and end long time rivalries.

Point Breeze Penguins wrote:It is almost like going out on dates while still married and wondering why your spouse gets upset.

I agree. The other schools hate it. However, there is no where else to go that is a better overall situation. OU (and A&M) are the only two with that option. That is why they get paid more from their TV contract than the other schools, to keep them happy. A&M had enough, but so far everything I have read, OU wants to keep this thing together. And if they are on board, the other 7 schools have no other options unless they want to accept more money and create more travel and end long time rivalries.

I can't see OU keeping it together if A&M bolts. There is no school they could add to get back to 10 that makes sense. In all likelyhood Mizzou probably leaves too.

Point Breeze Penguins wrote:It is almost like going out on dates while still married and wondering why your spouse gets upset.

I agree. The other schools hate it. However, there is no where else to go that is a better overall situation. OU (and A&M) are the only two with that option. That is why they get paid more from their TV contract than the other schools, to keep them happy. A&M had enough, but so far everything I have read, OU wants to keep this thing together. And if they are on board, the other 7 schools have no other options unless they want to accept more money and create more travel and end long time rivalries.

I can't see OU keeping it together if A&M bolts. There is no school they could add to get back to 10 that makes sense. In all likelyhood Mizzou probably leaves too.

Time will tell. But from everything they have stated, including their actions last year, they want to remain connected to Texas. If those two stay together, the Big XII lives. The only way OU looks elsewhere is if Mizzou leaves. And even then, that is not a guarantee.

I'm wondering how the Big 12 imploding is going to effect recruiting on a conference basis.

If I'm a quality four office star recruit in Texas or Oklahoma, I think I'm going to look harder at SEC and PAC-12 schools than I would have before.

I think the SEC gets even stronger because of this.

A three star recruit probably looks at the Mountain West and maybe the Big East now that TCU allows him to play in Houston at least once a year.

As for the Big Ten, I guess they're on par with the PAC 12 as far as attractiveness (remember we're talking about from the standpoint of the Texas/OK based three star recruit) but why would I go to the Mid West when the quality is about the same as the PAC-12?

newarenanow wrote:[IF for some reason the Big XII falls apart, they have been in talks with ND to possibly form some sort of losely affilated conference of their own. Where the other sports play each other like they are conference members, but FB will only partially play. And each individual memember can have their own media rights.

I can see Texas, BYU, ND, Boise St., Memphis, and maybe some others loving this. The Texas baseball team would object, but maybe it's worth it have their own network.

Article with statement from South Carolina's president regarding SEC meeting. Bascially said that the SEC presidents met to lay out guidelines about future expansion should any school apply for memberships. Said they are not interested in raiding other conferences, however, if any institution would like to apply for membership, they would consider.

newarenanow wrote:5) If the ACC does lose a team, the rumor is the replacement will come from the BE, and it will be one of the "legacy" schools of Pitt, WVU, Cuse, Uconn or RU. People presume Syracuse, but a lot has changed in the past 8 year. Their facilities are garbage, their FB team has been crap, and their BB team hasn't done as much. And they are on the private side which the ACC has enough of already. I've read where it woudl probably come down to 1 or 3 of Pitt, WVU and/or RU. And I know people say the ACC would not invite WVU due to academics, but if they lost Clemson or FSU, this is about money and WVU fits the mold for one of the better FB fanbases/FB schools and would replace what they are losing. FSU doen'st have the best academics in the world, but they are in the ACC for this very purpose.

Conference realignment has always been about TV $$$. ND started the trend (not in a conf obviously) with their NBC FB deal. The Big 10 have the nirvana with their conference network. The Pac 10 is doing the same thing. BYU is doing it. UT is doing it with the Longhorn Network. Facilities & current state of programs (which tend to be cyclical) aren’t important. Plus Syracuse is a large school with well above average enrollment for a private school. They aren’t a rinky dink school like WFU.

ESPN threw major $$$ at the SEC to prevent them from starting their own network, but its only a matter of time and TV contract expiration until every conference has their own network. ESPN also gave the SEC a very sweet syndication deal. They have a 12PM game syndicated to most major TV markets in the US. For example, one of the PGH non-network OTA stations had a contract to broadcast a 12PM SAT SEC game last year.

Syracuse is a good TV target because it’s a big school and they have a large number of alumni in the NYC area. They are a good school for new market penetration of a RSN like the Big 10 network for example. They would drive distribution into new homes. Rutgers brings the same thing in NJ. The Big 10 has a much greater bias to large public institutions than the ACC. The ACC would have been split 6-6 (public/private) if the original iteration of the last expansion went through. When VT replaced Syracuse the split ended up being 7 public, 5 private.

Everything I’ve read from ACC sources over the past few years and info I’ve received from people that know people in the MD athletic dept is that Syracuse is still the ACC’s #1 choice. UConn would be #2 and Rutgers #3. Its all about TV. The SEC has a national TV deal with CBS to show 1 game to the entire country at 3:30. ABC splits 3:30 regionally 4 ways with the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10, & ACC. PSU gets the Big 10 coverage from PA all the way into all of the New England states. The Boston ABC affiliate doesn’t even pick up the ACC game necessarily if BC isn’t involved. PSU has more pull for the Big 10 in the Boston market than BC has. ABC Boston will show Michigan-MSU at 3:30 for example over any ACC game not involving BC. The thinking behind adding Syracuse & UConn is the ACC could get more penetration into the market which could lead them into more exposure (regional ABC 3:30 + regional syndication at 12:00). That would translate into higher rights fees (because move TV households) for the ACC if they could get the NY/NE territory from the Big 10 & PSU’s hold.

I don’t mean this offensively since I know you are a Pitt grad, but PSU owns the Western PA market. There is no way the Western PA ABC affiliates would trade the Big 10 for the ACC, even if Pitt were part of it. WVU adds less than nothing (not even meaningful 12PM regional syndication) in terms of TV households.

The ACC won’t ever be an all sports power conference like the Big 10 & SEC, but the Carolina schools (really UNC) won’t move to another conference where that they can’t run like they run things like they currently control the ACC. If/when consolidation of the BCS conferences goes from 6 to 4, the ACC will be the 4th conference standing from a FB perspective. The Big East and Big 12 will be the conferences swallowed because UNC and their Carolina brethren won’t allow themselves to be swallowed up in any scenario.

I agree 100% it's all about TV, but there are many other factors involved as well. Look at the Big 10 expansion. Nebraska does not offer much of a market for their Big 10 network. What they do offer though is brand name, which can bring something to the tier 1 TV rights which is what pays the big bucks.

If it was all about market penetration, RU would have been selected for the Big 10 instead of Nebraska, as Big 10 FB would penetrate anywhere.

I'm not doubting your sources, and you could be 100% correct in the order the ACC wants to expand. But I've also read on other message boards from people that have various sources that have a completely different list, but I've also saw where it is the same exact list as yours.

Pitt and WVU have better brand name than Uconn and Syracuse and bring more viewers nationally (and yes, I know those two schools don't compare to the national powers). But with ratings of bowl games and nationally televised games like the Backyard Brawl and other higher quality OOC games, Pitt and WVU rank at the top of the Big East in national viewership.

That is one of the many factors that could go into this. The Big 10 took the brand at the expense of the market. The Pac 12 took the market at the expense of the brand (although they did shoot for both).

And with college FB expanding into almost every night of the week, conferences like the ACC and Pac (along with the BE) will be filling in more and more of the weekday night schedule, which is bringing in more and more ratings. No matter what, the Big 10 and SEC own Saturday.

One things I have learned though through all of this though, and reading endless boards and people that nail it with recruiting and coaching changes, etc, proving they do have some connections, when it comes to conference expansion, nobody knows what the hell is going to happen.

Last edited by newarenanow on Mon Aug 15, 2011 2:07 pm, edited 3 times in total.