Hmm.. something interesting is trying to organize south of this whole mess.. southeast of the Yucatan, in very warm waters and favorable conditions, a bit of banding going on there.. could this be the "actual" system?
Check out the western atlantic satellite.. and examine closely the south part of what I call a mess!
I knew something interesting was gonna come into play sometime tonight.. and this area is basically where the models start this "possible" hybrid/tropical system. I'd watch that area, it's deffinatly of interest.. better then what we had and have been tracking today. The NHC put an invest floater on the blow up from the ULL.. but I think they should move it south of that.

Quote:
Hmm.. something interesting is trying to organize south of this whole mess.. southeast of the Yucatan, in very warm waters and favorable conditions, a bit of banding going on there.. could this be the "actual" system?
Check out the western atlantic satellite.. and examine closely the south part of what I call a mess!
I knew something interesting was gonna come into play sometime tonight.. and this area is basically where the models start this "possible" hybrid/tropical system. I'd watch that area, it's deffinatly of interest.. better then what we had and have been tracking today. The NHC put an invest floater on the blow up from the ULL.. but I think they should move it south of that.

Yea allan the thunderstorm activity has been rather persistent tonight,lets see what takes palce over night.

I don't have a lot to add to what Tip and HF outlined in the past 10 posts or so, so I'll keep this brief. The way the upper level pattern has established itself, anything that develops is likely headed for the Florida panhandle. The trough over the Gulf isn't going anywhere; water vapor loops tonight clearly show it digging in over Mexico and the western Gulf and the system well to its north over the N. Plains isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Basically, what you see is what you get right now unless the pattern unexpectedly changes. Don't bank on it.

Second question is of what degree of development we are going to see. Generally, the sooner it develops, the more likely it gets a tropical classification. Though conditions are not overly favorable there in the NW Caribbean, shear is slightly weaker and upper level diffluence (winds moving apart directionally) is favorable for at least persistent convective development. It does have the Yucatan Peninsula to contend with, however, hindering those prospects in the short-term. The longer it waits to develop, the stronger the baroclinic (midlatitude) forcing it will encounter and thus the more likely it is of the subtropical or extratropical variety.

Tip made a good comment about the improved prospects if/as the storm starts to accelerate to the northeast; this would reduce the storm-relative shear across it and allow for some added development. We have seen a number of Gulf storms get going over the past 10 years under such conditions, with all of them ending up lopsided to the east and not particularly strong overall.

So, if we assume something gets going, what can we expect? Mostly rain. There likely won't be the long fetch or duration (or intensity) of winds to lead to significant surge -- whether tropical or extratropical. Storm intensity should be kept in check due to shear and cool SSTs generally in the mid-upper 70s over a shallow layer in the northern half of the Gulf. If it evolves baroclinically/extratropically, there's just not enough energy aloft over the Gulf to see it significantly deepen in that manner either. Think moderate tropical storm on the high end. It does have plenty of moisture to work with, though, and should spread all of it over Florida and the coastal SE into the coming weekend. As a result, a widespread moderate rain event is possible if not likely; generally 1-2" with spots at 3-6" depending on the track and structural evolution.

All of that said -- a hybrid cyclone heading for Florida into the weekend looks like a good bet, likely with some much needed rains for most if not all of the state. Will it be our second classified storm of the year? Jury is still out; I would tend to say no. One to watch, though.

Still no sign of a closed surface low at the moment, and pressures still haven't shown much drop, but the convection is certainly impressive over the area of 80W 19N. Tomorrow afternoon/evening will be the most likely time for something to start pulling together at the surface. if it hasn't started cranking up by then, we probably won't see anything tropical with this. Hybrid, perhaps. but not a pure tropical system.

Pressures are still around 1010MB, what will they be in the afternoon?

Again, please forgive the late additions (we keep having very active wx here in Texas)

Everybody, I was a holdout through much of the day, especially looking at such unfavorable shear atop already marginal SSTs in much of the GOM. Best I could argue for was a highly "lopsided TC" (which of course just about never gets a name, baring extenuating reasons).. and I still argue that the most likely scenario is for some kind of hybrid that is or is not name-worthy... But gee whiz, I concede to what is going on tonight. Here are two examples

The 5am sat loop indicates the general direction of the deep moisture and red top clouds will be pulled over Cuba. The apparent counter clock wise motion of dry air to the east of the convection seems to be vaccuuming up the storm this morning. I suppose that this could change over time, but so far everything has a fluid movement East. I am not expecting a great deal of rain from this Caribbean system unless the moisture deepens over Central Florida. Our Lakeland Monster is still in charge of the drought,.

Good morning!
I was expecting something like this to happen but really now surprised that this is not yet tagged. I thik once the visible satellite comes in, they will be able to determine where the circulation center is and probably tag it by later this morning. I'm impressed, and by reading some of the wunderground bloggers, they say it's headed south of Florida?? LOL
Anyways... very nice blow up of storms, now this is where we start to get busy!

I hate to say it but you might be right. Most of the High tops are being blown east. If the GFS verifies. Which usually doesn't then the low would head near S Fl. with most of the moisture out to sea. It's still a little early to know where the main moisture will go. The shear in the Gulf is pretty high so I doubt we will get too much in development. Maybe a hybrid system.

Have you guys noticed how all the storms seem to banding around a COC? Taking a look at the latest IR image, it appears as if the storms are now forming bands which would be an obvious sign that there is some COC out there.

BREAKING NEWS: The Navy Website has now designated this as Invest 92L. We now have a true investigation area. Waiting on report from NHC.

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