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Pronman: 2018-19 NHL Farm System Rankings

Corey Pronman of The Athletic is doing a series of articles where he ranks all NHL clubs farm systems from worst to best.
Considering very little of interest is happening in the world of hockey at the moment this should have potential for a bit of discussion.
I'll be posting each team as and when he puts them up.

This​ is a snapshot​ of the​ current state​​ of NHL farm systems and the top prospect outside the NHL.

It is based on thousands of hours watching players across the hockey world, by way of live scouting and video, statistical analysis, and background work talking to scouts, coaches and executives.

These are my opinions on the players evaluated, as well as the systems those players are a part of, based on my own research. These opinions may differ at times from some NHL sources, even at times significantly.

I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

I value goalie prospects very conservatively. In the past 10 years or so, I’ve only rated one goalie who I thought would be a top-tier player (Andrei Vasilevskiy) and only a handful who I’d project to be a starting goalie in the NHL.

This overview of the NHL prospect world will be divided into 31 columns going deep into each team’s farm system, counting down each day from the worst system to the best. This page will be updated after each team’s analysis is published.

Each teams prospects will be ranked within its respective system. There is no designated number I’m cutting team rankings off at. Rather, I list all the prospects I think are NHL prospects within a system. That ranges from 25 for the deepest system, to 13 for the thinnest.

I also split players up into tiers that will be seen throughout this feature. Here is how you should interpret them:

Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
Depth: Player who doesn’t have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.
A player is no longer considered an NHL prospect if he has played more than 25 NHL games in any single season, 50 career NHL games or is older than age 27 as of Sept. 15, 2018. All other players are considered eligible.

In addition, I discuss what impact the prospects could have in the upcoming season. And I rank the organization’s top 10 for all players under 23 as of Sept. 15, 2018.

I’m sure Capitals fans are one of the few groups who can see their system ranked last and care very little. They have some reason for optimism due to top goalie prospect Ilya Samsonov, but after him, it gets thin quickly. Their first-round picks on defense Lucas Johansen and Alexander Alexeyev are fine players but not game-changers. They have some depth and talent on their AHL club, but it’s hard to see legitimate top-six forwards/top-four defensemen coming from his group.

Tampaís system is interesting because it has a ton of very fine prospects, but it lacks a true upper echelon player. Its AHL team had a ton of intrigue with many top rookies and recent first-round pick Cal Foote is a good player, but Iím not very excited about any one player here. Thus itís hard for me to get that excited about the system as a whole.

Flames fans shouldn’t be shocked to see their system ranked low given the club had no picks this year until the fourth round. The strength of Calgary’s system is at the AHL level, as the organization has several quality prospects close to making the jump. First-round pick Juuso Valimaki is very good, too. There isn’t a real high-end prospect in their system, but given how few picks they’ve had recently, I think it could be a lot worse.

The Jets’ system has a handful of good players for the draft slots they’ve picked at in recent years — such as Kristian Vesalainen and Dylan Samberg — and their AHL team boasts several impressive players. The Logan Stanley pick hurts a bit, though, and their system is quite thin in terms of depth. The depth I don’t think is as important for them, though, given their competitive state, but it’s an issue.

The Bruins’ system has gone through some interesting ups and downs. Ryan Donato’s huge season spiked his prospect stock, 2017 first-rounder Urho Vaakanainen was very good in Finland, whereas former top 15-picks Jakub Zboril and Zach Senyshyn were just so-so as rookie pros. A system that looked very deep a few years ago has lost a little bit of its shine, but being able to produce good players like Charlie McAvoy and Jake DeBrusk this past season and Donato for next season will help Bruins fans sleep easier at night as the team continues to contend.

The Predators’ prospect pool was discussed often last season due to the incredible performance of Eeli Tolvanen in the KHL, a late first-round pick by Nashville in 2017. They didn’t have many picks this past season, and I haven’t loved former first-rounder Dante Fabbro when I’ve seen him. Overall, the depth here is quite thin, but their AHL team could surprise and graduate a decent player or two.

Somewhere around there you'd think. I know he really likes Kravtsov, so it'll be interesting to see if he places him in the high-end prospect group. Interesting to see his take on Chytil as well. I expect the Rangers will get good marks for depth, but probably a bit lacking in the Elite/High end groupings.

Somewhere around there you'd think. I know he really likes Kravtsov, so it'll be interesting to see if he places him in the high-end prospect group. Interesting to see his take on Chytil as well. I expect the Rangers will get good marks for depth, but probably a bit lacking in the Elite/High end groupings.

Nope, is that where they had the Rangers?
I just assumed, based on criteria, and how Gravesy explains -

Originally Posted by Gravesy

Somewhere around there you'd think. I know he really likes Kravtsov, so it'll be interesting to see if he places him in the high-end prospect group. Interesting to see his take on Chytil as well. I expect the Rangers will get good marks for depth, but probably a bit lacking in the Elite/High end groupings.

If that team has two prospects in the high end group then I guess that says it's not too shabby.
Considering the Rangers farm system was an absolute disgrace, building a top 10 draft system in 2 drafts is surely pretty decent work?

Something is wrong with his rankings, if Tampa is 30th. They have depth on the big club due to guys from the minors challenging for spots. They have depth in the system due to some of great selections outside of the 1st round. Maybe he does not cover the OHL much? Tampa has enough good prospects to be one of the team that can give Ottawa what they want and still have guys in their system.

Sidenote: Fabbro was great last year. One of the best all around defensemen in the NCAA, did Corey not watch BU? He had like 30 points in less than 40 games. He's fast, has size, scores goals, great passer, solid on D. He's a sure top 4 in Nashville soon and that is saying something.

Something is wrong with his rankings, if Tampa is 30th. They have depth on the big club due to guys from the minors challenging for spots. They have depth in the system due to some of great selections outside of the 1st round. Maybe he does not cover the OHL much? Tampa has enough good prospects to be one of the team that can give Ottawa what they want and still have guys in their system.

Sidenote: Fabbro was great last year. One of the best all around defensemen in the NCAA, did Corey not watch BU? He had like 30 points in less than 40 games. He's fast, has size, scores goals, great passer, solid on D. He's a sure top 4 in Nashville soon and that is saying something.

I'm guessing you didn't read what the rankings are based on, and then what he said specifically about Tampa's farm system. He values top end talent higher than depth. He agrees with you they do have a lot of depth, but he doesn't think they have a single Elite, high end or even very good prospects. He rates Volkov, Foote and Katchouk as merely Legit NHL prospects.

As for Fabbro he clearly disagrees with you as he rates him as merely "have a chance".

The Blue Jackets’ system has thinned out in recent years following a ton of graduations. Their AHL club didn’t have much last season as well. At the amateur level, they have a few guys with dynamic skill in Alexandre Texier and Kirill Marchenko who will need a lot of development time. Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson and Liam Foudy are intriguing players, but I don’t think any of them are foundational pieces.

The Ducks’ recent drafting has been a mixed bag. On the one hand, picks like Sam Steel and Troy Terry have looked great in hindsight, and on the other hand, a pick like Max Jones in the first round has been just so-so and I’m not sure what to make about Jacob Larsson now. They’ve historically been a great drafting team and there might be more steals to come, but for now, the system looks very average.

If that team has two prospects in the high end group then I guess that says it's not too shabby.
Considering the Rangers farm system was an absolute disgrace, building a top 10 draft system in 2 drafts is surely pretty decent work?

With a 7 and 9 overall and be lacking in Elite prospects is decent work?