Solar Generation IV

Executive summary: The capacity of annually installed solar power systems would reach 179 GWp by 2030. About 60% of this would be in the grid-connected market, mainly in industrialised countries. The total number of people by then covering their own electricity from a grid-connected solar system would reach 776 million.

Although the key markets are located now mainly in the industrialised world, a global shift will result in a significant share – about 27 % or an annual market of 48 GWp – being taken by the developing world in 2030. Since system sizes are much smaller and the population density greater, this means that up to 2.9 billion people in developing countries would by then be using solar electricity. This would represent a major breakthrough for the technology from its present emerging status.

By 2040, the penetration of solar generation would be even greater. Assuming that overall global power consumption had by then increased to 22,516 TWh (assuming serious energy efficiency measures), the solar contribution would equal 28 percent of the world’s electricity output.