Opec bends the markets

In 451 CE, the great Roman general Flavius Aetius rallied a motley army of imperial troops and barbarian allies, and halted the advance of Attila’s Huns at the Catalaunian Plains in Gaul, buying the empire some time and temporarily interrupting its long-term decline. This week’s Opec meeting in Vienna had something of the same feel about it.

Opec’s power peaked in the 1970s, and the US shale oil revolution of the past half-decade has threatened to consign the cartel’s influence to history. But by agreeing a deal to cut production on Wednesday, the Opec ministers showed that if they all acted together they could still bend the oil markets to their will, at least for a while.

Anjli Raval and her FT colleagues had the definitive guide to the details of the deal and its implications. Javier Blas and Grant Smith at Bloomberg highlighted a critical 2am phone call between Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak. Russia’s offer to cut its production by up to 300,000 barrels per day next year was important in persuading Opec members to reach a deal, although that reduction will come from current record highs. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s former oil minister, sounded sceptical that the promised support from Russia would actually materialise.

As Mr Naimi suggests, one big question about the deal is how far Opec’s members will comply with their commitments. Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University, has calculated that since 1982 Opec agreements have been cheated on 96 per cent of the time, and concluded that this latest agreement would be “mostly meaningless”. John Kemp at Reuters suggested the headline output cut of 1.2m barrels per day would actually take about 750,000-1m b/d off the market. The other big uncertainty, he added, was how fast the US shale oil industry would respond. The majority view from Texas is that, while they applauded – literally – Opec’s move, shale producers will be cautious about ramping up activity.

There were differing views of the deal’s longer-term significance. Jason Bordoff wrote for Reuters that reports of the death of Opec were “greatly exaggerated”, but the FT’s Nick Butler argued that the deal marked “the beginning of the end” for the cartel.

Important context for the agreement is Saudi Arabia’s deep fiscal deficit as it slides towards recession. Other oil-producing countries are also under pressure. The FT carried an excellent report on Nigeria, highlighting the dual problems of its oil industry: low prices and security threats. However Julian Lee of Bloomberg Gadfly suggested rising production could make Nigeria and Libya the biggest threat to the success of the Opec deal.

Geoffrey Styles of GSW Strategy Group suggested the combination of historically high oil inventories with a looming supply gap caused by delays and cancellations of large projects was a “recipe for volatility”.

However, there have been some signs of new oil production and infrastructure projects making progress. BP gave the green light to its Mad Dog 2 deep water development in the Gulf of Mexico. The Canadian government gave approvals for two oil pipeline projects, which between them would create more export capacity from Alberta than the Keystone XL project blocked by President Obama.

As speculation continues over the implications of Donald Trump’s presidency for climate policy, the mayors of about 7,100 towns and cities have formed a network seeking to encourage emissions reductions and planning for resilience in a warming world.

Reince Priebus, picked to be Mr Trump’s chief of staff, told Fox News that his boss’s “default position” on climate change was that “most of it is a bunch of bunk”. However, that view could be challenged by Mr Trump’s daughter Ivanka. Politico reported that Ms Trump was likely to play an influential role in the administration, and saw climate change as “one of her signature issues.”

Harold Hamm, the chief executive of Continental Resources who has advised Mr Trump on energy and had been tipped as a possible energy secretary, said he didn’t want the job, and instead recommended Kevin Cramer, the North Dakota congressman. Mr Cramer talked to the FT earlier this year, when he discussed a plan to investigate Opec for unfair trade practices. Fox Business reported that Gary Cohn, president of Goldman Sachs, could be in line for the energy job, although he is also apparently in the running for another senior role in the administration.

For secretary of state, meanwhile, one rumoured contender is ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson, who is widely expected to retire next year. Mr Tillerson’s predecessor at Exxon, Lee Raymond, has also been mentioned as a possibility for the job.

Finally, a cracking Christmas present idea for the energy enthusiast. Jennifer Allford of the Calgary Herald reported on playing Newtonian Shift: “a facilitated role-playing simulation that allows players to experience decades of energy transition in one day”. Unfortunately you can’t buy it in a shop: you have to sign up for a session, and the website warns sternly that “to play you must be able to commit to full participation for the 5 hours of game play.” But surely a home version cannot be far behind?

Quote of the week

“A lot of high-cost producers reviewed their situation, [and] they became more rational in their production… But we are reacting to the realties, rather than looking back in regret or praise [of] our position” – Mohammed Bin Saleh al-Sada, energy minister of Qatar and holder of Opec’s rotating presidency in 2016, refusing to acknowledge any regrets over allowing oil prices to fall in 2014.

SHELL BLOG

Comments

Bonus Group: It is understandable that a niche now exists in the market for a company similar to BG Group, but for Neptune Energy to set its aim at emulating and becoming like BG is nothing short of horrifying. Why anyone should wish to recreate the inept management, twisted HR policies and rancid technical half truths of BG Group in order to deceive the shareholders is beyond comprehension. If they do, then the Serious Fraud Office should be on the alert. Sammy 'two pools', whose past remit included selling Enterprise Oil to Shell, rather than ENI is made of sterner stuff. That said, his nuclear ambitions did fall somewhat short of those of Kim Yong Un. Let's wish Neptune Energy a long, scandal free future and greater integrity than bungling BG with its House of Cards and flamboyant ineptitude.

Bogus Group: Following the acquisition of Engie the Financial Times headline “Neptune Energy sets aim on being the next BG Group” may have sent a chill through some. To think there could possibly be a rise from the ashes is an alarming prospect
However there was some comfort in the company chairman statement “We have the opportunity to take the time to get it right”.
Hopefully this means their Ethics and Compliance foundation will actually be more than just another policy open to distortion by misconduct.

Bill Campbell: Is the New York City case against Oil Companies justifiable or just hot air?

Many, if not all prestigious US scientific journals estimate largest source of air pollution in US is caused by vehicle emissions. Current estimates that US has some 260 million automobiles and 11 million trucks. It is the daily emissions from these vehicles that are the cause of scientific concern. But anybody visiting Florida, and following a construction truck, will be familiar with black smoke in copious amounts emitting from the vertical exhaust pipe, sometimes it's so bad it can restrict your vision but Florida is not the only state of the US that does not require emission control, there are many more, monitoring for example (like a UK vehicle MOT) is not legally required or carried out.

So perhaps De Blasio should start suing these delinquent states.

In any case, I find the whole matter ludicrous in a country, where their President claims that human activity is not related in any way to global warming and appoints a head of EPA who is also so inclined (a man described by NY Times as an arsonist in the Fire Station) so why does Shell et all not call as witnesses in their defence the current EPA Director, or otherwise why does De Blasio not start by suing those states that allow millions of vehicles to pollute the atmosphere daily.
Bill

Bonus Group: Further to my last post on this blog. Sound Energy have now arranged a slap-up bean feast for their shareholders to be held on 15th February at Grace Hall, Leadenhall Street, London. Drinks at Carriages afterwards. Dress is formal so don't expect too energetic a food fight. Attendees must pay for their own tickets! All will be revealed about the new Coro strategy. You may recall that Sound shareholders will receive Coro shares as a result of the divestment of Sound's Italian assets. The question is whether Sound shareholders will end up in the soup.

Bonus Group: There are rumblings in the ether about Rockhopper Exploration plc having failed to perform Due Diligence with integrity in respect of their purchase of the Italian focused company Mediterranean Oil and Gas (MOG) in 2014, and in particular MOG's asset, the Ombrina Mare oil field.
Following the decision in February 2016 by the Ministry of Economic Development not to award the company a production concession covering the Ombrina Mare field, the company has considered its legal options with regard to obtaining damages and compensation from the Republic of Italy for breaching the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT).
Could this have anything to do with the sudden and unexpected departure of Rockhopper's Chief Operating Officer, one 'Good Time' Fiona MacAuley? Fiona, a Chartered Geologist, started her career with Mobil North Sea Limited in 1985 and has subsequently held key roles in a number of leading oil and gas firms across large mid and small cap E&Ps including BG and Hess.
Fiona is now Chief Executive Officer of Echo Energy plc where Stephen Whyte (also ex BG) is a Non-Executive Director, previously having been Chairman of Sound Energy. Fiona will also become a Non-Executive Director of Saffron Energy plc. It is proposed that Saffron acquires Sound Energy's portfolio of Italian interests and permits through the acquisition by Saffron of Sound Energy Holdings Italy Limited (SEHIL). SEHIL holds all of Sound Energy's Italian oil and gas interests through its own wholly owned subsidiary, Apennine Energy SpA (APN). It is proposed that Saffron will be renamed Coro Energy plc.
This is yet another 'reverse takeover' by the Sound Energy/Echo Energy Team. The share options for the directors are raining on them like confetti. Could there be bonuses in store for the Directors of this association of companies where the paint is never allowed to dry?
Plenty of 'smoke and mirrors' and wool being pulled over the shareholders' eyes in this can of worms.

Bogus Group: No doubt Chevron and partner Serica Energy will have their legal and commercial teams in action. Production on the partner owned Erskine platform has been shut down due to a blockage in the Chrysaor operated Lomond - Everest pipeline export route. Chrysaor purchased the assets from Shell who in turn inherited from BG Group.
Déjà vu springs to mind, as the Chevron partnership’s revenue was affected two years ago, due to a blockage in the same pipeline when BG Group was the operator.
The well-touted “lessons learned” jargon, will no doubt be on the lips of these companies executives as they scurry to apportion blame.
In a previous post Bonus Group stated “BG shrapnel has fragmented in the direction of Tailwind Energy”
This appears to be a similar story as other BG shrapnel (both operations and legal) moved to Chrysaor via the Shell route.
I’m sure the Chrysaor mob will feel comfortable dealing with the legal and commercial issues experienced with BG Group (later Shell), as it will be the same rhetoric for the causal factors. However Chevron and Serica may want to dig a bit deeper into the previous incident, to see how BG Group dealt with this, the transparency of reporting and who was made accountable.

Ornithologist: If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it may well turn out not to be a penguin!

Bonus Group: BG shrapnel has fragmented in the direction of Tailwind Energy (aka Tailspin Energy!). Much hot air from after-burn can be expected from this company - mercurial bunch. In December they announced the acquisition of Shell Expro's interests in Triton Cluster, located in the UK Central North Sea 190km east of Aberdeen. Their stated intention is to further develop the asset. Probably through a three pronged approach: bonus, bonus and more bonus! Will Triton turn-out to be a flounder?

Bill Campbell: End of ammunition supply!
Not sure what the ammunition comment means, are you being positive or negative. If Shell keep supplying the ammo well this website is under no obligation not to use it surely. We would all like the ammo to dry up. It would be pleasant to see the most corrupt organisation in Europe turn the corner, and for example demonstrate daily openness,honesty and integrity instead of serial lies. When I say it's a corrupt organisation I do not infer this characteristic on the worker bees, but it is clearly corrupt from the top to the top, that is in its boardroom, including the non-executives who tend to know what goes on but sit on their hands, anything for an easy life. Highly paid window dressing.

Ammunition: Mr Donovan, Shell seems to have provided you with a huge amount of ammunition over the years. Is there any end in sight?

Royal Dutch and The Law: Hello website, can I suggest that if the Dutch and Itailian Prosecution services are not aware of the Shell /police authority "happenings" in Eire, that they should be and quickly.

Shell Corrib Corruption: Mr D I make the reference of a link with police heroin dealing inquiry on this fact Athlone police station ( Heroin hub ) was the chosen destination for the balance of the Shell alcohol consignment on the instruction of Garda Sub Aqua SUPREMO Liam Grimes so that's drugs and alcohol meeting in the same police station "of all the police stations in all the world you had to walk into mine "...is there a " link. "Time will tell ...we recognise that 99 out of 100 Irish police personnel are amongst the finest in Europe....however ....

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