EHedger Report

Dustin works with a wide net of large producers throughout the Midwest. His analytical market approach and objective hedge strategy development is specific to the needs of every individual.

Corn and soybeans make fresh lows 7/16/09

Jul 16, 2009

SETTLEMENTS 7/16

Sep 09 Corn

316 ¾

- 12 ¾

Dec 09 Corn

325 ¼

- 12 ¼

Aug 09 Beans

976

- 44 ½

Nov 09 Beans

890

- 14 ½

Sep 09 Wheat

533 ¼

- 1 ½

Sep 09 KC Wheat

559 ½

- 1

Sep 09 Min Wheat

615

- 4

Dec 09 Meal

268.5

- 6.9

Dec 09 Oil

34.48

- 0.32

Corn and soybeans closed sharply lower, wheat followed. Well, “When it’s over, it’s over.” Corn and wheat both made new lows for the move today. Nearby soybean prices closed 45-cents lower and nearby corn closed 13-cents lower. All soybean contracts are now under $10/bushel and new crop soybeans are back under $9. There isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said. High prices this summer rationed demand and cured high prices. The weather has been good across the globe and looks to stay that way. Some people are worried about having and early frost. I certainly won’t argue that an early frost will hurt the crop, but that is a long ways away. At this rate, you will need a frost in September to get prices back to where they just came from. I would still be hedged and worry about an early frost when/ if it happens. There is still a lot of money moving around in these markets. Most people are always bullish. This will continue to give us selling opportunities. Corn and soybean prices are higher nearly every night. Soybeans have traded higher every day for the past 2-weeks. I know prices aren’t as high as many of you were hoping, but unfortunately I don’t see a reason for a sharp rally.

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Justin Kelly7/17/2009 07:02 AM

sdk,
There is no arguement here that Chinese demand has been strong. The Chinese government took 7 million tons off of their domestic market. That caused them to import an unusually high amount of soybeans. Besides China, who is using more corn and soybean meal than last year? Animal numbers are down and feed usage is down. There is no doubt that we have rationed demand. As far as crush margins, you have to look at cash prices. The crusher is paying 30-50 cents over the board for soybeans. Then the crusher is selling the products a month later. Currently, Soymeal basis is $5-15 under the board and soybean oil is 3-500 points under the board. So, although the "board crush" might show 75-80 cents, the actual "margin" that a crusher is making is much lower. This is why we have seen basis levels break so sharply in the interior.

sdk7/17/2009 09:41 AM

thanks for the comments

Anonymous7/17/2009 05:17 AM

The hog farmers took it in the shorts which in turn hurt the corn farmers in the demand part of things. Thanks to the Hog Flu which is a bunch of CRAP should have never been called that in the first damm place.That hust everybody becasue the consumers which are'nt to bright anyway think you can get sick from pork. There just isn't any winning with people!