I am the former Co-CEO of KP Media, a leading Publisher in Ukraine. In addition to being the leading news organization in Ukraine (Korrespondent, Kyiv Post), we also owned the largest online business, Bigmir.net. I'm now back in the US, consulting and speaking in the areas of Digital Marketing and Digital innovation. You can find my website at www.DigitalTonto.com and follow me on Twitter @DigitalTonto.

Ukraine's Decade of Political Awakening

Last week, Ukraine commanded the world’s attention with a barrage of shocking images: A brutal, thuggish dictator, towering walls of burning tires and trained snipers shooting at civilian protesters who were equipped only with homemade helmets and shields.

Yet the image that I’m stuck with is the hundreds of volunteers—my sister-in-law among them—who descended on the Maidan over the weekend not to attack or defend it, but to clean it. Many thousands more carried food, clothes, and other necessities to the opposition camp during the crisis. Everybody, it seemed, was pitching in where they could.

For those of us who are close to Ukraine, the story of the Euromaidan did not begin last week—or even last November when the protests started—but over a decade ago when the first whiffs of change could be felt in the air and ordinary Ukrainians began to discover their political soul.

It is not the story that leads TV newscasts or that is bandied about and debated in think tanks, but it is one of paramount importance. How it plays out—not geopolitics or backroom machinations—will determine Ukraine’s future. This is my version of it.

The Kuchma Years

Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma with US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (image credit: Wikipedia)

One of the first things that struck me when I arrived in Ukraine in 2002 was the almost complete lack of political discourse. It was a big change from Poland, where I had lived since 1997. There, for every two Poles, you had five opinions and each one seemed to manifest itself in a protest that would grind Warsaw traffic to a halt on a near daily basis.

But in Ukraine, politics was almost never discussed. The ruler at the time was Leonid Kuchma, who could best be described as nondescript. He was neither particularly charismatic nor boring, intelligent nor without guile, certainly not honest or just, but also not particularly corrupt or brutal, at least by the standards of post-Soviet dictators.

Probably the best way to understand Kuchma is by his former profession, that of a factory manager. He didn’t rule Ukraine as much as he presided over it with a modicum of competence. He stole and made his son-in-law a billionaire, but was sure to spread enough money and power around to keep the political and business elite satisfied.

Everybody else minded their own business. They worked during the day, met friends at night, had families, went on an occasional vacation and tried not to notice too much. If you didn’t go looking for trouble, it wouldn’t go looking for you.

By 2004, Kuchma was coming to the end of his second term and was ready to leave public life. Everybody was happy to see him go, but didn’t see that much would change. Some new faces, maybe, but everybody expected the same old system. It didn’t turn out that way.

The Orange Revolution

The Maidan Nezalezhnosti (independence Square) in 2004. Later, infighting broke out within the new government and we all felt betrayed, (image credit: Wikipedia)

Looking back, it’s clear that a number of forces converged to create the events of 2004. Ukraine’s burgeoning economy—it was one of the fastest growing markets in the world at the time—had created a restless middle class. The Color Revolutions had already overthrown regimes in Serbia and Georgia. Ukraine was a logical next step.

Kuchma’s anointed successor, a witless two-time convicted felon named Viktor Yanukovych, was perfect to play the role of the villain. The poisoning of Viktor Yushchenko, the leading opposition candidate, also added fuel to the fire. After nearly dying from the attack, his scarred face lended moral character to an otherwise uninspiring personality.

But most of all, there was Yulia. The world may know her as “Timoshenko” or even the “gas princess,” but in Ukraine she is always “Yulia.” Think of Martin Luther King or Malcolm X, but beautiful with a crown of blonde braids. Her strength next to Yushchenko’s dull air of competence made for what seemed like a perfect team.

When the election was falsified, we all went to the Maidan. We froze and chanted and cheered, but we were never really conscious of how much danger we were in. (Later, we found out that Yanukovych had pushed to send in the troops, but was rebuked by Kuchma.) Yushchenko became President and it seemed as if a new day had dawned.

We were naive. Yanukovych’s Party of Regions regrouped and obstructed all they could. The Russians cut off the gas and infighting soon broke out between the various ruling factions. There was a scandal with Yushchenko’s son, increasingly erratic behavior from Tymoshenko and before long we all felt betrayed by those we had suffered for.

The financial crisis hit at the end of 2009. The Hryvnia, Ukraine’s currency, plummeted by 45%, GDP fell by 20%. It was carnage. When the Presidential elections came around in 2010, nothing seemed to make much of a difference anymore. Yanukovych prevailed, this time fair and square.

The Euromaidan

The Yanukovych presidency wasn’t so much a reign as it was an insatiable grab. He changed the Constitution to grab more power and threw Yulia in jail to cripple the opposition. And the grab for money—symbolized by his tasteless Mezhyhirya estate—was obscene, even for Ukraine. For Yanukovych, there would be no Kuchma style sharing.

The country became truly lawless. One example was the heinous case of Oksana Makar, a young girl gang raped and then set on fire. Somehow she survived and named her attackers, who were taken into custody, then promptly set free because of family connections. The incident epitomized what everyone saw everyday—a corrupt elite that preyed on its people.

So when Yanukovych backed out of the trade agreement with the EU, it was the final straw. It is one thing to steal, to make a mockery of the rule of law and to run the country far below any reasonable standard of competence. But the prospect of EU integration had come to symbolize inclusion into the community of nations and a chance to live a normal life.

People once again went to the Maidan. Riot police attacked them, and more came. Yanukovych passed a law outlawing the protests and even more came. Things escalated and soon there were Molotov cocktails, helmets, and improvised shields. Then the shooting started and nearly 100 were killed.

I watched these scenes, not from the front lines as I did in 2004, but from afar. I joined my wife’s Skype calls with friends and family and traded instant messages with former colleagues. Yet still, there is something about watching carnage unfold on streets where you once walked, met friends and bought groceries that chills you to the core.

The world took notice and the diplomats came. Yet away from the cameras, other meetings were held in Parliament. Yanukovych’s allies in the Party of Regions had enough and were ready to defect. The oligarchs, facing sanctions against their western assets, were through with him as well.

When the agreement to end the crisis was signed the next morning it was fait accompli. Ukraine was done with Yanukovych for good.

The Aftermath

The now deposed President fled and almost immediately a new majority was formed in Parliament with the opposition firmly in control. Votes to impeach the President, change back to the 2004 Constitution—which deeply weakens the Presidency—and to free Tymoshenko from prison passed unanimously or nearly so.

As soon as she was released, Yulia went directly to the Maidan and spoke to crowd. As she did, my Facebook feed nearly exploded. It was most probably not the reaction she was expecting or hoping for. In effect, they said,

“Welcome back Yulia. We are glad you are free. Now please go. Nurse yourself back to health. Enjoy your life. But please go. Come back in five years, but we have hard work to do now and we don’t want you here.”

In Ukraine it is sometimes said that everyone else wakes up to a new day, but they always wake up to yesterday. The people of Maidan are desperately seeking tomorrow.

Some “armchair realists” in the West have raised the specter of a civil war, which is only slightly more possible than Texas secession. The same Parliament is in power, albeit with different leadership, as before the crisis. There is a continuity of government and political life, with all its warts, is sure to resume once the excitement has passed.

Presidential elections are set for May 25th. Yulia will surely run and her political talents are not to be underestimated, but Vitali Klitschko, the World Heavyweight Champion boxer may be the favorite . He is a political neophyte, but also a fast learner unencumbered by a political past. Others, such as Petro Poroshenko and Serhiy Tihipko are also possibilities.

Warrants have been issued for the arrest of Viktor Yanukovych’s and his inner circle. As of this writing, their whereabouts are unknown and they are considered fugitives by the interim government.

That doesn’t mean geopolitics will play no role. With his Eurasian Customs Union now in tatters and his opposition at home emboldened, Putin is sure to act. After a period of relative quiet, there will most likely be trade sanctions, gas politics and other dirty tricks. Yet Russia’s influence is clearly in decline and when the price of oil falls, so will Putin.

As I explained last Saturday, the indispensable ingredient is EU integration. The reforms needed in Ukraine are almost beyond comprehension. Think about the much needed tax reform process in the US—already stalled for years—and then multiply that by a thousand. Virtually every aspect of public life needs to be transformed.

While actual EU membership is a long way off, the ascension process itself is productive. Each reform will be opposed by an entrenched constituency and not even the most educated electorate could follow it all. But EU requirements are clear—Ukraine’s government will either meet its obligations or it will not—and that will serve as a litmus test.

Yet perhaps the most crucial thing to remember is that Ukraine is a profoundly different place than it was when I first arrived in 2002. The political apathy has been replaced by the Maidan and the Maidan is watching, ready to defend the heart of a nation that has so often been broken.

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As always your reports are very biased, but we can’t expect objectivity from a person like you. Real journalists are not influenced by geo location of their family members and do research before they type. For whatever reason you, and most of the media believe that Ukraine has to be liberated from Russia. Many in the west mistakenly believe that Ukraine is ruled by Russia, and they urgently need to become free. If you are so versed with Ukrainian history you know that Ukraine had all kind of governments since USSR collapsed, and Russians worked with all of them.

Another myth is that Ukraine is some kind of “treasure” that everyone wants and needs. With GDP at less than 160 billion this country doesn’t possess any economic value, and it is considered by all the participants (EU, US and Russia) as purely political project in current environment.

As most of the western media you are ready to justify protesters for using force, and you obviously didn’t watch the videos of first few weeks when protesters attacked law enforcement agencies without any retaliation by these agencies. That’s ok, this is your choice but all this will backfire for Western and European taxpayers. In a year or so, you will be writing a different type of articles. You will be writing about the disappointed Ukrainian society, about another government being overthrown, and an urgent need for another bailout. You don’t see how mistaken you are now, but I will quote this post in a year, and you will see that I was right.

I was right once before. I wrote the following comment to your article you published in December: http://www.forbes.com/sites/gregsatell/2013/12/01/why-ukraine-matters/

“…Don’t be offended by my words regarding the revolution. I actually want to go further and state that because of people like you Ukraine may fall for another bloody resolution. The president was democratically elected, your inciting info just motivates people on the ground to do stupid things.”

Do you feel good about yourself being a part of this media circus that brought chaos to Ukraine? It’s not a chaos for you though, I know, it’s all a new order. All these Svoboda people are liberators, they are not Jew haters. We all know that they are nationalists, but we are ready to close our eyes simply because they are against Russia. Everyone who is gainst Putin and Russia is liberal – this is your thinking.

As I understand you spent some time in Poland… “The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geo-strategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski? Working for this guy?

please fix your website to work correctly with iPhone and Facebook browsing on a phone – I am on iPhone5 with iOS7 using Facebook – it does not work correctly within this environment, it continually brings up Twitter windows super annoying and I can’t even read the article. Thanks!

Greg, thank you for your reporting on the situation in Ukraine. Your contribution of the background of how they reached this point is informative and thorough. Keep up the good work in keeping the world apprised of the developing news from a part of the world that many Americans know next to nothing about. Thanks again!

Oh my God. I’m speechless. I’m without speech! I haven’t heard so much lie in my entire life, and I am old. Not a single word of truth in this article, not a single word. I don’t even want to go into presenting any arguments, because I already know what the author will say (read his other articles and discussions). Not that I really care, just saying…

I can tell you one thing. Everything you wrote here is a lie. I live in Ukraine, and you’ve never even been here. US has nuked Japane, Napalmed Vietnam, bombed Yugoslavia, Killed 100s of thousands of people in Iraq, Sponsored ISIS militants and now are sponsoring nbeo nazi regime in Ukraine. So burn in hell you ignorant useless bastard.

If you like NeoNazi’s, then the Ukraine is your place. Can’t believe the US is not only backing them but using them for regime change in Kiev. Victoria Nuland blew five billion on the regime change campaign and now the Crimea has bailed, pretty funny.

That’s a very hard argument to make, since far right parties in Ukraine fared so poorly that they didn’t even make it into parliament, unlike many other European countries.

btw. The $5 billion was the total amount in US aid to Ukraine since 1991. That’s actually a very small amount. We’ve given a similar amount to Russia as well, including $2.2 billion in food assistance.

The way things are going, it looks like Russia will come begging again in a few years.