Assad's day is done: By this time next year, the current Syrian regime will be little more than an obscene historical memory

The long and bloody Syrian civil war, which has claimed more than 40,000 lives, would appear to be approaching its final act. While the pictures that appear on our TV screens every night are little different from those of a year ago, there has been substantial change in the situation.

Until fairly recently it appeared that a military standoff, in which neither the government nor the opposition could win the day, would continue for some considerable time. This is no longer the case. It now seems fairly safe to predict that by this time next year, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad will be little more than an obscene historical memory.

The changes in recent weeks are numerous and affect both the military and the political dimensions of the conflict.

First, the Syrian opposition forces have managed to overrun and occupy several military bases of the Syrian regime.

This has not only weakened the Syrian armed forces, but also greatly strengthened the capabilities of the opposition by providing them with heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery as well as large stocks of ammunition.

Second, the opposition forces have begun to make use of anti-aircraft weapons, whether seized from Syrian bases or supplied by friendly Arab governments. While they still need more of these weapons, as well as training in their use, they have so far managed to down several fighter aircraft and attack helicopters.

In other words, they are no longer sitting ducks in the face of attacks by the regime’s aircraft.

Third, NATO has announced its intention to deploy Patriot missiles along Turkey’s border with Syria. While this may not have any immediate military consequences, it does send a powerful political message to the Syrian regime: The Western world is against you and will not contemplate any attack on its ally Turkey.

Fourth, defections from the Syrian armed forces continue apace, thus weakening the regime and strengthening the opposition, since many of the defectors join the rebel forces and provide them with military training and leadership.

Fifth, many of the Syrian opposition movements were able to cobble together a coalition in November. This coalition is now recognized as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people by such leading countries as the United States, Great Britain and France. This development tends to further isolate the Assad regime, and to increase the political and psychological pressure under which it is now operating.

Finally, there are signs that the Syrian regime’s most important ally, Russia, may be having doubts about the ability of President Assad to survive the current crisis. The loss of Russian support would be a major blow to the Assad regime, politically, financially and militarily.

All of these factors suggest the balance of forces in Syria is now shifting in favour of the opposition, which is progressively controlling more and more Syrian territory. The Assad regime still has robust military forces at its disposal and the conflict may indeed become bloodier before it is finally resolved. But the end would now seem to be in sight.

The big question now on the horizon is, what happens in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime? The opposition movements are anything but genuinely united. Quite the contrary. They are deeply split along both sectarian and ethnic lines.

All of this bodes ill for those hoping or praying for a smooth transition to democracy in a post-Assad Syria. A vicious, and perhaps violent, competition for power would seem to be the more likely outcome.

As a representative of the opposition recently told The Economist, “Progress militarily has been great. But we all fear what comes next.”

— Louis A. Delvoie is a fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University in Kingston

Assad's day is done: By this time next year, the current Syrian regime will be little more than an obscene historical memory

The long and bloody Syrian civil war, which has claimed more than 40,000 lives, would appear to be approaching its final act. While the pictures that appear on our TV screens every night are little different from those of a year ago, there has been substantial change in the situation.

Until fairly recently it appeared that a military standoff, in which neither the government nor the opposition could win the day, would continue for some considerable time. This is no longer the case. It now seems fairly safe to predict that by this time next year, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad will be little more than an obscene historical memory.

The changes in recent weeks are numerous and affect both the military and the political dimensions of the conflict.

First, the Syrian opposition forces have managed to overrun and occupy several military bases of the Syrian regime.