Obama Speech Marks Decline Of US Influence In Middle East

President Obama will deliver a "major
address" on US policy in the Middle East today at the State
Department. He is expected to announce a series of
mini-initiatives designed to promote democracy and stability in
the region.

Given everything that is happening -- simultaneously -- in the
region, the speech is unlikely to be comprehensive. And it
comes at a time when US influence in the region is at a
post-World War II low.

David Rithkopf, writing on Foreign Policy's website, provides
some context in a blog entry partially entitled: "the great
shrinking superpower in the Middle East." He writes:

...underlying all this are some stark truths. America is leaving
Iraq and Afghanistan. We are doing so not because our high-minded
goals have been achieved but because we have lost the will for
such fights. We also simply can't afford such battles -- not just
old ones, but new ones. Future interventions will either be small
-- a la the Osama raid -- or collaborative and strictly limited
-- a la Libya. Where only a big intervention will do -- as in the
case of an Iran that pursued a nuclear program more publicly and
aggressively, it just won't happen.

We will do everything in our power to appear tough -- embracing
sanctions, leaving symbolic deployments of troops behind,
offering rhetoric that will rattle with the finest saber steel.
But we will have fewer dollars for foreign aid, fewer troops to
deploy, and less money to support long supply chains and extended
deployments. Thanks in parts to reforms, in part to the allies we
misguidedly backed and in part to our treatment of other allies
we will have fewer, closer allies in the region. Our natural
allies from outside the region -- from Europe to Japan -- will be
constrained by their own financial straits and the likelihood of
years of recession or financial weakness to come. NATO may have
learned a lot in Afghanistan and Libya, but one of the things it
has surely learned is to severely restrict such involvements in
the future.

The relative economic clout of the United States in the region
has diminished as markets like China and other rapidly growing
economies have become more important in terms of energy
consumption. The relative political clout of the U.S. in the
region has shrunk as, in addition to all the above reasons,
emerging powers are playing an ever bigger role and are easier,
less-demanding partners than we are. It is also diminished
further by the fact that we are offering old policy approaches
that aren't working (goodbye, George Mitchell. You gave it your
best shot) often in cahoots with partners who are showing little
willingness to adapt to new circumstances.