Archive November 2012

Rotowire Injury Analysis: Fantasy Football Week 12

It’s time for the Week 12 Injury report as we get close to playoff time and each spot in your lineup could mean the difference between making a run for your league’s title and sitting on the couch watching the rest of the games from home.

Matt Forte: Forte left last week’s game after suffering an ankle injury to the same right ankle he injured earlier in the season forcing him to miss a game. Although he was spotted practicing today

Week 12 Observations

How odd was it on Thanksgiving when Justin Forsett was awarded a touchdown on a play where his knee and arm were clearly down due to technicality most people didn't even know about? Apparently, I never realized the extent to which coaches needlessly throwing challenge flags on scoring plays was ruining the game. If you really want to stop coaches from wrongly throwing challenge flags, why not simply behead them at the 50 yard line? It would be only slightly more heavy handed than the current rule and far more effective. Plus, it wouldn't ruin the cover for someone who had the Lions +3 at home.

Rotowire Injury Analysis: Fantasy Football Week 11

Let’s breakdown a few of the key injuries that occurred in last weekend’s games starting with the biggest fantasy football league shakeup…..Gronkowski’s injury.

We will also reveal how the Eagles discovered how to cure someone from a concussion!

Rob Gronkowski: In the Patriots’ recent game against Andrew Luck and the Colts, Gronkowski injured himself as he made an incredible leaping catch in the final 10 seconds of the game and dove into the endzone for the game-winning score to send the Patriots to the Superbowl!

Follow me on Twitter @DoctorKenton for more updates/injury analysis in the upcoming games this week.

Week 11 NFL Live Blog

If you start a Sunday live blog in a week in which the Buffalo Bills have already played, will anyone see it? I hope to hear from Payne/Stopa/Nowak et al, but the Buffalo Mafia might all be out with their respective families.

Buy Low Targets

No matter the sport, players go through hot or cold streaks during the season. In fantasy hoops, a cold streak to start the season gives owners the opportunity to try and grab a player who?s struggling at a discount. Here?s a look at some players to target if you want to land a buy low option:

Week 10 Observations

I faded the Chargers against the Chiefs a couple Thursdays ago, and San Diego covered late with two defensive scores. Stupidly, I took that as a sign they were not that awful, especially in November, and I wanted to sell the Bucs high. Which was great until Philip Rivers gifted arguably the stupidest pick six in NFL history to the defense. But complaining about the Chargers choking is like paying retail for Josh Hamilton and complaining that he got hurt.

Week 10 NFL Live Blog

Back after a one-week hiatus, fueled by a trip to the Arizona Fall League last week. Brutal week for injuries if you own Percy Harvin and Antonio Brown in the same league, as I do in two places. Actually, it's been brutal owning Brown for all but a couple of weeks anyhow.

Stretching Your Bench

Welcome back to the BrainBlog... an exclusive here on RotoWire. Here we de-emphasize player rankings and statistical comparisons and instead look at strategies, tactics, and tips that can help you think through potential roster moves and start/sit decisions.

NBA Blogcast: Friday Production Notes

Get all the latest NBA news wrapped up in an absurdly long blog post. By Kyle McKeown (@RotoWireKyleNBA) and Eric Caturia (@ETCat30). Fan of the blogcast or podcast? Feel free to e-mail your questions or comments to NBAPodcast@rotowire.com.

NBA Blogcast: Thursday Production Notes

Get all the latest NBA news wrapped up in an absurdly long blog post. By Kyle McKeown (@RotoWireKyleNBA) and James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson). Fan of the blogcast or podcast? Feel free to e-mail your questions or comments to NBAPodcast@rotowire.com.

Rotowire Injury Analysis: Fantasy Football Week 9

Darren McFadden: I think this is probably the highest profile player on this week’s injury list so it’s only fair to talk about McFadden first. McFadden suffered an ankle injury on his very first carry of the day and was able to return to the game briefly before calling it a day. He would later go on to get an xray which was negative (not surprising) which at least rules out a fracture although the real question is how bad is his ankle sprain….the MRI is ordered. Reports are saying

NBA Blogcast: Wednesday Production Notes

Don't like listening to podcasts? We understand. So here are all the production notes from Monday's NBA podcast in beautiful text. With Kyle McKeown (@rotowirekylenba) and Justin Mertes-Mistretta (@RotoWireJustin) breaking down all the news and games from Monday. E-mail: nbapodcast@rotowire.com

NBA Blogcast: Tuesday Production Notes

Don't like listening to podcasts? We understand. So here are all the production notes from Monday's NBA podcast in beautiful text. With Kyle McKeown (@rotowirekylenba) and Eric Caturia (@ETCat30) breaking down all the news and games from Monday. E-mail: nbapodcast@rotowire.com

Steady Your Itchy Trigger Finger

The NBA regular season is 82 games long. But even with fantasy owners knowing that fact, some of us like to jump the gun on early-season successes or failures and make rash roster decisions. Let's take a look at some of the most popular adds/drops in Yahoo Leagues the past couple of days:

NBA Blogcast: Monday Production Notes

Don't like listening to podcasts? We understand. So here are all the production notes from Monday's NBA podcast in beautiful text. With Kyle McKeown (@rotowirekylenba), Eric Caturia (@ETCat30), and James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) breaking down all the news and games from the weekend. E-mail: nbapodcast@rotowire.com

Week 9 Observations

The best thing that could happen to Jason Garrett would be for his kicker and punter to resign mid-game. There's no doubt Dan Bailey and Brian Moorman already feel bad for enabling that kind of cowardice.

The Art of the Deal

Hello again, Brainiacs.... Welcome back to the BrainBlog only on RotoWire. In this space we talk about strategies and tactics for winning fantasy football without delving too deeply into specific player rankings. Have you ever heard the expression, "Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime"? That is exactly what we aim to do here.

he NFL trading deadline passed yesterday and most fantasy leagues have a similar trade deadline that is coming up very soon. You are running out of time for making a move in the trade market and once the deadline hits the only changes you'll be able to make to your roster will be from waiver wire moves and free agents. That has me thinking a lot about how to craft a deal in fantasy football.

And, yes, I did say "craft" a deal. This is way more art than science, my friends. Why? Well, let's look at a few reasons and some ways that this works:

1. The Endowment Effect: This phenomena is where a person is more willing to pay to retain something they own than to pay to obtain something new. In other words, people tend to over-value what they possess and under-value what you have. To give an illustration, it is as if you wanted to trad with a a person who has a British one-pound note (which is worth $1.60 US). You offer a $1 bill and three quarters but the other person turns you down for either no stated reason or something that doesn't make sense. ("I can't do that deal. The one-pound note is British!") They forego an immediate profit of almost 10% because they over value what they already have. How much more does this happen with subjective quantities like Willis McGahee and Dwayne Bowe? A lot more. You'd think that McGahee and Bowe were the best in the league if you try to deal for them. Why? The Endowment Effect. How can we overcome this? I'm glad you asked, because that is a nice segue to #2...

2. Dialogue before Deal: You've got to talk this through with your potential trading partner. Almost every time someone wants to do a deal they start by shooting over an unsolicited trade offer. The immediate reaction is one of fear and uncertainty, compounded by the Endowment Effect. You have got to break down those issues by starting things off with an inquisitive email. Ask them what players on your roster they are interested in. Ask them where they think they need help. See what they are trying to accomplish. Being truly inquisitive will go a long way toward breaking down barriers and building up the value of your players. Paint a picture for them of a future roster with some of your players on it.

3. Kleptophobia: Fear of being robbed. Yep, as crazy as it sounds there is a real phobia at work here. I mentioned that the first reaction to a trade offer is one that includes fear. People hate getting ripped off and they will immediately think you are trying to do that to them. Even if it is your best buddy since first grade, the first thought will be about what you are trying to take from them. This is why it is so crucial that you lay the groundwork first with a great dialogue around the win-win scenario. Unless you are thinking win-win they are going to be scared. You've got to convince them not to be afraid of your trade offer, unless of course, you really are trying to rip them off. And, dude, all I can say is that if you are trying to steal from them you'll end up doing yourself more harm than good. Even if you are able to pull off a heist, the kleptophobia will increase ten-fold and not just with your trading partner, but across the whole league. Steal from your friends at your own risk.

Listen, the fact is that people have real emotions tied to their possessions and the fantasy players on their roster are no exception. It's crazy but true. I've seen real friendships damaged over trade offers because the person getting the offer thought the first person was trying to take advantage of them. It happens all the time. You've got to break down these barriers in order to get anything done in the trade market.

Start the dialogue. Think win-win. Work out an offer where you give value to get value.

The best trade scenarios are where you are trading value now for value later. Some leagues have prizes for regular season wins or most points in a week, so you could get some traction there... but the best way to use this tactic is in a keeper league. Target the teams in your league that look like they are out of it and offer a great keeper value to them. They may have a $30 player (or 1st or 2nd rounder) that can really help you this year but is too expensive for them to keep next year. In exchange you can trade that strong $1 (or late round) bargain. In this scenario it is obvious that both sides win.

The other major thing to think about is to deal from your bench strength to improve your starters where you can. Having a great bench doesn't help you much at this point in the year because many of the byes have already happened and many of the injuries that were going to happen have already happened. There may be a situation where you have Drew Brees and Robert Griffin III. Brees has had his bye, RGIII hasn't, plus it will be rare to start Griffin over Brees going forward anyway. Griffin has a ton of trade value - deal him now! You should get back a stud starter at another position. You might also try to work in a 2-for-2 deal where the player that you both replace gets added in. In other words instead of just trading Griffin for someone like Trent Richardson, you would deal Griffin plus BenJarvus Green-Ellis for Richardson plus Tony Romo. Well, something like that anyway. Both side swap studs and get a serviceable replacement for their bench.

There is obviously a whole lot to talk about on this topic, but hopefully in this entry I've been able to give you some food for thought... Good luck in hammering out those trades before the deadline.

NBA Podcast: Friday Production Notes

Don't like listening to podcasts? We understand. So here are all the production notes from Friday's NBA podcast in beautiful text. With Kyle McKeown (@rotowirekylenba) and Eric Caturia (@ETCat30) breaking down all the news and games from Thursday. E-mail: nbapodcast@rotowire.com

NBA Podcast: Thursday Production Notes

Don't like listening to podcasts? We understand. So here are all the production notes from Thursday's NBA podcast in beautiful text. With James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) and Kyle McKeown (@RotoWireKyleNBA).

Billy Hamilton went for $28 in the NL LABR auction this past weekend. I discussed this with a fellow writer who participates in Tout Wars with me later this month and we discussed the problem with investing heavily into Hamilton.