District 4: Supervisor Fiona Ma’s seat remains a toss-up

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The race that will decide who will replace Fiona Ma in the District 4 seat on the Board of Supervisors on Tuesday night is now a tossup among four candidates.

At the outset, the race for the District 4 seat — which represents the Sunset and Parkside neighborhoods — was a free for all with handful of strong candidates for the seat Ma vacated to run for Assembly District 12.

There is still no official winner since none of the District 4 candidates have received more than 50 percent of the first-choice votes.

The first-choice selection of the district’s voters has put four candidates in close standing: Businessman Ron Dudum; Ed Jew, a former local Republican Party vice chairman and neighborhood activist in the Chinese community; Ma’s former legislative aide, Jaynry Mak; and former Police Commissioner Doug Chan.

Based on the ranked-choice system, a candidate must receive a majority of the votes. If no candidate receives a majority, then the candidate who received the lowest votes is eliminated. Voters who voted for the candidate who received the lowest amount of votes will have their first choice eliminated and their second choice will count as their vote. The ballots are then recounted. This process is repeated until a candidate receives a majority of the votes.

The race, however, could change the dynamics of the Board of Supervisors as Ma was seen as Mayor Gavin Newsom’s reliable ally.

At stake is Newsom’s veto power. It takes eight votes from the 11-member board to override a Newsom veto.

Mak came out strong, quickly raising $100,000 before July, establishing herself as a formidable opponent. Mak’s vote would likely fall in line with other board progressives, such as Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin. If Supervisor Chris Daly prevails in his District 6 race and Mak also wins "Newsom has no veto," political analyst David Latterman said.

Chan picked up Newsom’s endorsement, and in three months, between July and September, raised $155,509. Chan is "very similar to Ma," Latterman said.

Dudum, who raised $54,148 between July and September, gained momentum, and just weeks before Tuesday emerged as a serious contender. Dudum, who is seen as a conservative, would also vote similarly to Ma, according to Latterman.