This Morning: Gloom for AAPL, Glow for GOOG, You Know the Drill

By Tiernan Ray

Here are some things going on this morning in your world of tech:

Another monday, another up day for Google (GOOG) and down day for Apple (AAPL)

Google shares are going higher by $3.78, or half a percent, at $835.30, after the company received a duo of price target increases, with RBC Capital’s Mark Mahaney reiterating an Outperform rating and raising his price target to $950 from $840 after determining the “bear thesis” about mobile monetization is “weakened” and that YouTube is gaining people’s confidence as an ad medium.

And Pacific Crest’s Evan Wilson also reiterates an Outperform, and raises his price target to $980 from $820, writing that the perception that it has “uninspired management and was unable to find success outside its core due to regulatory issues” has lessened and the company is now perceived as a tech leader.

Apple, on the other hand, is down $5.77, or 1.3%, at $425.95, after a trio of cautious notes this morning. CLSA’s Avi Silver cut his rating on the stock to Outperform from Buy, and cut his price target to $505 from $575, after lowering June-quarter iPhone sales projections and arguing the iPad mini will make up a greater mix of the total iPad haul that quarter.

And Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets writes that his “barometer” of Apple sales, collection of Asia-based manufacturers and suppliers that he uses as a proxy for Cupertino, showed a 31% drop in activity in February compared to January, way worse than the typical 8% drop. Writes White, who has a Buy rating on Apple and an $888 price target, though he notes that the Chinese New Year may have hampered things.

And R.W. Baird’s Will Power, who has a Neutral rating on Apple and a $465 price target, writes “Checks by Baird’s semiconductor team suggest iPhone 5 and total iPad procurement orders near our shipment forecasts, but below consensus.”

Shares of Dell (DELL) are are up 14 cents, or 1%, at $14.30, after Carl Icahnthis morning announced he’d entered into a confidentiality agreement with the company, allowing him to review its books.

Note that over the weekend, my colleague Andrew Barywrote in Barron’s print edition that it may be time for CEO Michael Dell to withdraw his LBO plans, as it’s looking very difficult for him to get the necessary votes to pursue the deal.

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are higher by $1.32, or 10%, at $14.40, after AT&T (T) this morning said it will offer the company’s recently released Z10 handset starting March 22nd in the U.S., and that it will start taking pre-sales tomorrow.

Shares are also being helped by rumors, once again, of buyout interest, including by Lenovo (0992HK)

Shares of Nokia (NOK) are off 12 cents, or 3%, at $3.56, after data from research firm Strategy Analytics was leaked to a variety of sites this weekend stating that the company fell to seventh place from first place in smartphone sales in China. The same data had Samsung Electronics (005930KS) in first place, Lenovo in second place, and Apple in fourth place, though some of the sites reporting leaked data mis-represented the data and claimed Apple was in third place. Also today, Goldman Sach’s Simon Schafer cut estimates for Nokia.

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There are 19 comments

MARCH 11, 2013 11:17 A.M.

Debra G, wrote:

RBC Analyst Mark Mahaney (used to work for Citi) , has very good statistics (relatively to analysts), he has a 57% success ration on Buy he gives (that outperform the market) and he has an average return of 5.7% on his recommendations (according to TipRanks), check his full portfolio since 2009 at http://tipranks.com

MARCH 11, 2013 11:26 A.M.

anonymous wrote:

Many of these would be fired if they were working at AAP or Goog. These are the same people who were calling for AAPL to $1100 etc.when it was $700.

MARCH 11, 2013 11:48 A.M.

Ed wrote:

Apple and Tim Cook are done!

MARCH 11, 2013 11:49 A.M.

Bubba Gump wrote:

Apple has been quietly making pretty big capital expenditures for months. Eh boys. Wonder what that's for shitheads?! Ask Horace. And we've got a news announcement today by Re.uters that Taiwan Semi and Foxconn are have been putting out notices for university hirees to the tune of 5000 newbs for each company. That to me says something. Not good for Samsung. Apple is moving over and scaling up babe. What else. Hmm. Hey. Re the Street. Last earnings Apple told those dweebs that they were guiding down down. Apple gave its numbers and will hit them. WTF is up with the Street?! Are they building up Google for a crash or what? Like we're going to see Glass and Ghost Cars anytime soon. Yeah. That's capitalizable. Dream on. Make sure you wear a jock with a cup.

MARCH 11, 2013 11:56 A.M.

ValleyOracle wrote:

Tiernan, you sure are winning over the hearts of a particular group of people lately :-) I won't name the group since I don't have the flame retardants or flame resistant armor on :-)

MARCH 11, 2013 11:56 A.M.

Bob Jones wrote:

Dump your Apple stock. Android is superior and will rule the roost for the next 20 years

MARCH 11, 2013 12:05 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

It's really "sad" the way that "Apple Distortion Media Complex" is limping along these days. It's like watching a dog with only two legs get around.

The analysts that are interviewed on CNBC are coaxed into saying something nice about Apple and you can see that the anaylysts just don't have their hearts in their responses.

Such a long way away from the "Golden Era of Apple" when some phoney chat about possible vaporware would spike the stock a couple of bucks.

When Geno Munster and Topeka Capital boy were chirping about "Apple first Trillion Dollar Company" "AAPL to $1,000+ per share" and other such drivel.

Why are these "professionals" not called to account for the wealth destruction they have propogated on naive retail investors?

Why are they allowed to just "move to the next stock to hype"?

Why are they able to "be so wrong for so long on BBRY", so that, only the retail investor who is wise enough to do their own due diligence knows that there is an amazing upside coming to this stock?

Just some thoughts from Uncle Freddy on a Monday morning.

Have a productive week.

ENTER BB 10 .... TO THE USA!

MARCH 11, 2013 12:20 P.M.

makelvin wrote:

"...in February compared to January, way worse than the typical 8% drop... though he notes that the Chinese New Year may have hampered things..."

I love how these analysts always like to give certain clauses in their analysis to try to give them a way out in case their estimate is off. But in this case, I found it strange; did China not have a Chinese New Year last year? :)

MARCH 11, 2013 12:22 P.M.

Alex wrote:

Wheres the fanboys?

MARCH 11, 2013 12:29 P.M.

master wrote:

Interesting the same garbage about price targets and euphoria that surrounded AAPL last Sept now surrounds GOOG stock. When stocks rise or fall based on guesses and flawed reasoning and meaningless price targets, one should take a step back and re-evaluate what is really going on. Nobody questions rising prices until the greedy get slaughtered.

MARCH 11, 2013 12:33 P.M.

GOOG wrote:

Google doesn't actually sell phones its just a component supplier (Android OS). And the article points out that GOOG is not affected by smartphone monetization, but the smartphone market is saturated, nice analysis genius.

MARCH 11, 2013 12:40 P.M.

semix wrote:

AAPL is a falling live grenade and the pain continues unabated until one or more of three things happen: (1) sub $200 to reflect fair value for a company entering a death spiral with endless earnings miss, disastrous margins erosion, and horrible guidance, (2) a new category game-changing product release before year end to show investors and users it can still innovate and compete, instead of limping along with pitiful upgrades, or (3) Cook's resignation which results in the biggest one day share price gain as investors and users rejoice and rejuvenate with hope and excitement.

MARCH 11, 2013 12:43 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

finally bbry is moving in the right direction!! i have all of my life savings in it ($4738 cdn).

anyways, i am sorry i end up dominating all of the blogs with my comments, but at 67 years of age, i'm not getting any younger. its's real, real important to me that bbry do wel! here as i owe my auntie matilda 3 months in back rent.

times have been tough. ever since i was laid off from the bacon factory. yep, tough sledding indeed. but now my bbry seems to be on a roll, things are looking better.

freddy

--enter bb10
--exit any shred of my dignity

MARCH 11, 2013 12:44 P.M.

freddysrevng wrote:

The reason why iPhone 4 sells so well at $0 and is cannibalizing iPhone 5 sales is because they are, basically, the same thing.

Wait til you get a load of how “The Same” the iPhone 5s will be to the iPhone 5…. Apple may be just changing the name on the phone.

You know like the “New iPad” they just came out with that nobody really knows happened because it is the “The Same” as the last iPad.

This is Apple’s new “Busines Model” – come out with “The Same” products, sue some people, be all arrogant about what you are doing when questioned and wonder why they stock is, nearly, down $300 from its high.

ENTER BB 10 …. TO THE U.S.A. !!!

MARCH 11, 2013 12:53 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

gs is big owner of nok

MARCH 11, 2013 1:04 P.M.

James wrote:

Apple is enjoying its successes, Never before has the Apple ecosystem been so robust, so versatile, so broad based, so mature, so stable, but conversely, Apple's never ending honeymoon is running the risk of becoming a little stale and stagnant. Apple needs a new hit just like a rock star does to stay within the top 10. Apple is a superstar after all, but is Apple a Jennifer Lopez or a Hillary Duff?

It is funny but if you look at how the South Koreans are trying to out-American the Americans. Samsung is a grand example of that. Indians truly believe India is a more democratic nation than the USA! Blackberry thinks it is more advanced than Apple and Android, as those amazingly stoic Blackberry trolls parade on touting those laughably stoic oddball BB10. I admit, the Blackberry crowd has somehow out-nerd the real nerds in America, but at what price? just look at what's happening to Justin Bieber who was a Canadian and hating it.

Apple has been a company in gloom ever since its inception in 1978. Google as an advertising company must glow otherwise it'd be out of business. Google has had a lot more failures than Apple such as its Nexus line, Chromebook, etc, but Google has Samsung as its champion, without Samsung Google would be a distant second to Apple. The struggle between Samsung and Apple is causing a lot of collateral damages, Blackberry is foremost as carnage as even its newest BB10 offerings are already badly outclassed and outdated by Asian Android phones from HTC, Huawei, LG, and soon, Samsung, none of which can even hold candle to Apple, the ultimate brand.

MARCH 11, 2013 1:47 P.M.

Tiernan Ray wrote:

ValleyOracle: Saying put on my foil at, eh?

MARCH 11, 2013 5:22 P.M.

Samantha wrote:

If Apple doesn't come up with something innovative soon, I fear the stock price will continue to fall even if the company is doing a relatively decent business. John Q Public has noticed that all of their recent products are just the same thing rehashed.

MARCH 11, 2013 7:44 P.M.

Ted wrote:

Pennystockchief dotcom (Dot means .), is a site through, which I made some solid decisions about GOOG stock. The newsletter helped identify a lot of key points and it was free

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.