For the past decade, Hugo Chávez has been supporting the Castro regime by sending millions of barrels of cheap oil to Cuba. These energy subsidies have helped the Communist government maintain power amid a terrible economic crisis. In return for its petroleum shipments, Venezuela has received an influx of Cuban doctors. And last month, as the entire world is now aware, Chávez himself received cancer treatments in Havana before returning to Caracas earlier this week.

But the strategic relationship between Cuba and Venezuela goes well beyond oil and health care. In addition to sending doctors, the Castros have also dispatched senior military personnel to help train and manage Venezuelan security forces. Back in February 2010, for example, General Ramiro Valdés (an architect of Cuba’s notorious G2 spy agency) came to Venezuela, supposedly to work as an “energy consultant,” but really to assist Chávez in the consolidation of a Cuban-style dictatorship. Indeed, Chávez has actively sought to “Cubanize” the Venezuelan military, police, and intelligence services.

A few weeks before Valdés arrived in Caracas, Venezuelan vice president Ramón Carrizales and his wife, Yubirí Ortega, the environmental minister, resigned from the government in protest at the Cubanization of the armed forces. Shortly thereafter, a group of prominent ex-Chávistas — including Gen. Raúl Baduel (defense minister from 2004 to 2007) and two other former military officers (Yoel Acosta and Jesús Urdaneta) who helped Chávez launch his failed 1992 coup attempt — published a letter urging the “autocratic” and “totalitarian” Venezuelan leader to resign from office. Among its many complaints, their letter said that Venezuelan institutions had been “distorted by the incursion of outside elements” (read: Cubans).

Cubans “are helping to run Venezuela’s ports, telecommunications, police training, the issuing of identity documents and the business registry,” the Economist reported around this same time (February 2010). “In some ministries, such as health and agriculture, Cuban advisers appear to wield more power than Venezuelan officials. The health ministry is often unable to provide statistics—on primary health-care or epidemiology for instance — because the information is sent back to Havana instead.” Meanwhile, “Trade unions, particularly in the oil and construction industries, have complained of ill-treatment by the Cubans.”

The tensions fostered by Cubanization will only get worse if Chávez dies or is sidelined for an extended period of time. Venezuelans of all stripes resent the presence of so many Cuban officials in their midst. The longer the Cubans stay, the greater the chance of serious friction in the military and other institutions. A rupture in the army could lead to violent instability.

Cuba isn’t the only source of conflict within the military. Senior members of the Venezuelan armed forces — including Gen. Henry Rangel Silva, the country’s “general in chief,” and Gen. Hugo Carvajal, director of military intelligence — are heavily involved in the global drug trade. In 2009, the U.S. Government Accountability Office reported that cocaine traffic through Venezuela had increased “significantly.” Between 2006 and 2008, Venezuela was the departure point for more than half of all maritime drug shipments from South America to Europe, according to the United Nations. The Wall Street Journal reports that imprisoned Venezuelan drug trafficker Walid Makled, who was captured in Colombia last August and extradited to Venezuela in May, has admitted to having “as many as 40 Venezuelan generals and top officials on his payroll to provide security and distribution, among other things.” One can only assume that these generals and officials will seek to protect their drug profits and resist sharing or giving up the spoils.

Besides fighting internally over narcotrafficking and Cuban influence, the military may also clash with the tens of thousands of pro-government paramilitaries that Chávez has cultivated as his personal security force. These militia fighters represent the Venezuelan equivalent of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, the lethally effective organization that crushed massive pro-democracy demonstrations in June 2009. If Venezuelans rose up the way Iranians did two years ago, the armed forces might refuse to slaughter civilians in the street. But what about the militias, who report directly to Chávez? What if they conducted a bloody crackdown? Would the military intervene to stop them? Or would it allow a Tiananmen-style massacre to take place?

These questions bring us back to Cuba. Would Havana really allow the Chávez regime to collapse? After all, the Communist-ruled island is critically dependent on cheap Venezuelan oil. Without those energy subsidies, the Castro government might well implode. The Cuban military advisers and intelligence personnel sent to Venezuela have been tasked with fortifying Chávez and preserving Bolivarian socialism. If the Caracas regime were faced with large-scale street protests, à la Tehran in 2009 and Cairo in 2011, would the Cubans push for a crackdown? If so, would Venezuelan military officials be able to prevent it?

In so many ways, the Cubanization of Venezuela has contributed to greater instability and uncertainty, while increasing the likelihood of violence. Chávez has essentially allowed his country to be colonized by Communist apparatchiks, whose government has a major stake in keeping the Venezuelan regime afloat. This has created yet another obstacle to restoring Venezuelan democracy. Indeed, before it can escape the nightmare of Chavismo and return to liberal, constitutional government, the South American country must first de-Cubanize.

15 Comments, 8 Threads

Did we miss yet another opportunity for regime change in Venezuela while Chavez was deathly ill in Cuba? Who was running the country and why didn’t we try to overthrow the government while Chavez was away and unable to respond? This is becoming a disturbing trend with Obama. He doesn’t seem to understand when an opportunity is given to him in the world of foreign policy. He botched the opportunity for regime change in Iran after their 2009 “elections,” when the country was on the brink of collapse. Overthrowing the mullahs in Iran would have been one of the greatest foreign policy accomplishments by an American president and probably would have done more for stability in that part of the world than any war ever could. And yet we did nothing and the mullahs and their desire for global domination remains in tact.

Now we had Chavez on the brink of death, in another country no less, and the CIA didn’t engineer a major uprising against the regime? You’re kidding, right? There wasn’t one enterprising young general that wanted to be leader of the country and have a nice, fat, Swiss bank account that went with it? This is becoming a disturbing trend with Obama. He cares so little for foreign policy and is so obsessed with his welfare state that he doesn’t focus on opportunities when they are handed to him. He only seems to focus on foreign policy when events are spinning out of control and he is forced to do something.

Hope we get an adult in 2012 that actually knows something about foreign policy and knows what to do and when to do it, especially when the opportunity is handed to him or her on a silver platter.

We missed a chance at regime change, the first time Hugo Chavez got ousted shortly for 2 days back in 2002. We should have offed the SOB or least offered more covert assistance like we did when Pinochet overthrew Allende.

The real tragedy is that depsite decliing poll numbers ‘Uncle Hugo’ is still popular witht he poor. He never stops giving them other people’s stuff. We stand to lose our condo down there because it isa rental and we live in America. Our lesee is trying to take it (free of charge) under one of Chavez’s new laws on residency and property ownership. It pretty much says that if you live outside of VZ all of your property in VZ is forfeit.

That is why Hugo still has a large power base amongst the poor in VZ. WHat could possibly go wrong with such a solid economic doctrine?

Good points all. As the article notes, Cuba is deeply and increasingly embedded in the Venezuelan power structure. The question remains, however, how can Venezuela cease to be a Cuban colony?

The opposition, those members of which are neither in jail nor in exile, are divided. Even in the event of “free and fair” elections next year, it seems very likely that the Chavistas will retain power. They have sufficient government money to run successful campaigns and the press has been so grossly restrained that if the opposition has/have a message/messages whatever it or they might be will not persuade many. It’s a mess and if the Chavistas retain power so will Cuba.

The death/incapacity of Chavez is a mixed bag and I have tried elsewhere to speculate on what either might mean. The bottom line, as I see it, is that we simply do not know.

I would very much like to read the author’s views on what, if anything, can be done by whom to de-cubanize Venezuela.

Thank you Dan for your focus. All I believe is necessary in Venezuela
is for the people to wake up. (If Chavez had stayed away longer- this would
have happened.) Chavez is a “mesmerizer”. And, being the only show in town-
hogs the stage-gets most of the audience-re.”captive audience”-literally.
Yes, a personality cult. People should be educated to other options for thinking and living -ie. freedom from a Cuban puppet dictator-Chavez.
Simply awakening the people-now-before the election -there is a chance to save
Venezuela.
Lastly, people should be reminded that Castro and Chavez should be tried for crimes against their own people. Sooner rather than later, or never-illness or not- we will never forget.

Well, yes. But how is that to happen? The obstacles, increasingly in place for the past decade, are not going to vanish because we wish them to. Although the “literacy rate” in Venezuela is high it is also meaningless because students from an early age are taught not to think. Most of those capable of leading the opposition are in jail, in exile or otherwise indisposed. The press is largely and increasingly under the control of Chavez.

Perhaps if Chavez has to return to Cuba for a prolonged stay his power apparatus will crumble but I doubt it. Cuba is substantially in control and for that to continue the presence of Chavez in Venezuela is not essential. True, Chavez has the charisma but guns and thugs should suffice for the interim.

There is nothing that the United States, under our own el Presidente Obama, is likely to do. Brazil might try something but that is not likely. Why should she. Colombia? Ditto.

If I had a clue about what could be done to help the people of Venezuela to wake up, I would suggest it in a flash. I don’t.

The June 24th Western Hemisphere Subcommittee hearing focused on Venezuela’s Sanctionable Activity- highlighting Chavez’ support for Iran, terrorism, and the growing nexus between drug trafficking and acts of terror.

Mack added, “This potential cabinet shuffle is another clear demonstration of support for illegal activity at the highest levels within the Chavez regime. The State Department cannot continue to give recognition to these dangerous criminals and must designate Venezuela a State Sponsor of Terrorism without further delay.”

press release from Congressman Connie Mack Chairman of Western Hemisphere Subcommittee US Rempresentative, Washington, DC
-most in Venezeula have not heard
about this…inform them, please.

Chavez always talks about himself as a “warrior”.What war (except with women)-and no, Chavez was not injured in battle.No, Fidel did not save him. No, he is not a “war hero”.-This myth is really a broken record. Can someone tell Mr. Chavez- that serious people are laughing behind his back at this nonsense.
People of Venezuela-get a life. Throw this scoundrel out-sick or not. Actually,drag him to Court for the many crimes and abuses of his own people.