Trump’s escalation and a united Resistance: How the US failed to deter Syria and her allies

Just as many observers of the Syrian conflict had been thinking that the tragic crisis playing out for the past six years in the Arab country was finally about to see and end, things quickly turned around on April 4 as Syrian “opposition controlled” areas were allegedly hit by chemical weapons, a terrible crime purportedly committed by the “Assad regime”, who apparently decided to defy all logic and challenge the “International Community” to revise its decision to finally let go of the obsessive quest of regime change in Syria.

Within days, US Tomahawk missiles struck the Shayrat Airbase in the Homs governorate. The missile strikes did not result in any serious damage to the installation as the Syrian Air Force managed to restore it only a few days later. Trump and the US regime have portrayed this act of aggression as a show of force, despite them narrating it with some fantasy of Washington being the guarantor of human rights for the Syrian people.

Washington is not ready for peace, nor is it ready to admit defeat in Syria. Not only did Washington know the consequences of unilateral action against an ally of Russia’s and Iran’s, but it also knew what the result would be: continued fighting. The Syria-Russia-Iran axis had entered 2017 with a lot of confidence after the December 2016 victory of Aleppo, paving the way for a new peace process to be initiated, one that did not include Washington’s direct interference. Of course, any negotiation for peace at this moment would include the “opposition” to give major concessions rather than the government having to do so due to the waning influence of Jihadist rebels in Syria as a result of casualties sustained both during battles with government troops and as a result of infighting.

In Iran, this act of aggression was viewed as an expected move by the American side. The Iranian political establishment and leadership had long warned that neither Clinton nor Trump were any different in their approach to the Middle East. Immediately after this attack, Iran issued harsh condemnation towards the act and reiterated its position of standing by the Syrian government’s side.

Iran recently warned that such aggression won’t go unanswered with Iranian Defence Minister Hossein Dehqan adding that “The resistance front will continue to fight resolutely against terrorists despite the will of the Americans.” Concurrently, the Iranian government has worked closely with its Russian counterpart to respond to this aggression.

What I find troubling is that much of the focus of the Russian and Iranian governments official response has been on calling for an “unbiased investigation” of the incident in Khan Sheikhoun on April 4. During the following days after the US strike on the Shayrat Airbase, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called several times for the establishment of an international fact-finding committee to investigate the attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also condemned as unacceptable the “unfounded accusations” about the chemical attack, calling for an international probe. Putin “pointed out that it was unacceptable to make groundless accusations against anyone without conducting a detailed and unbiased investigation.”

Iran and Russia should by now know that it is useless to call for “unbiased investigations” in a world where Washington dominates the main international institutions charged with such investigations. Therefore, any calls for “unbiased investigations” of this incident are pointless.

Furthermore, the response towards this aggression was also relatively weak in the sense that not once did the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance threaten to respond militarily to this obvious act of war by Washington. This sort of restraint is not interpreted well by the West as they rather view it as a sign of weakness rather than understanding that Syria-Iran-Russia are doing their utmost to avoid a potential World War. I argue that Rogue States such as the US must be deterred from engaging in such bold acts such as the strike on Shayrat Airbase. Just as the US has “red lines”, Iran and Russia must also have red lines for what they deem as unacceptable.

On the other hand, this attack also provided the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance an opportunity to deepen their cooperation. Within a matter of days, communication between senior Iranian and Russian officials intensified and culminated on Friday with a joint press conference given by the three countries, showing up a unified front. With Russia’s closure of the military coordination channel devised to prevent any unwanted confrontation between Russian and US forces in Syria, chances of a Russian-Western cooperation grow dim. Russia seems to be running out of partners to cooperate with. Immediately after the US strikes, Turkish President Erdogan made headlines when he stated that Turkey would support US actions against Syria. This proved once again that Turkey is an unreliable partner and that Iran is the only country that shares Russia’s goals in Syria.

This in turn could change the Turkish stance on the diplomatic talks currently underway as Ankara could double down on its positions regarding regime change and “safe zones” in Syria. It wouldn’t come as a big surprise to me either if Turkey increased its support for the Jihadist rebels rather than pressuring them to stay committed to the ceasefire agreed upon with Russia and Iran.

It is also no secret that a potential Washington-Moscow rapprochement is viewed fearfully by Tehran who is concerned that Russia could sell out Iran in pursuit of better relations with the West. Public opinion in Iran is often very distrustful towards Russia, with some viewing Russia as an unreliable partner not being able to defend Syria from US strikes. With this in mind, Russia’s next move is very important because it will show Iran how far Moscow is ready to go to defend an ally.

On a final note, a crucial obstacle to deeper Russian-Iranian partnership has been Iran’s relationship to the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah and Russia’s longstanding policy of preserving a good relationship with Israel. Israel has been able to move relatively freely to violate Syrian airspace and attack the Syrian Army without Russia really responding to these actions in the past. This makes any kind of military cooperation rather limited due to Israeli diplomatic pressure. The Islamic Republic will however continue to work with Russia based on the common interests they share as these two countries share a very pragmatic relationship. A high ranking Iranian diplomat was quoted as saying “From the very beginning, there have been disagreements between Iran and Russia regarding the Syrian crisis, and this is normal. During the meeting between Rouhani and Putin, there were again discussions regarding this issue. However, it is obvious that we will act based on our own interests and without counting and relying exclusively on Russia’s actions. We knew from the very beginning that there are disagreements between Tehran and Moscow, although, there was also a high level of mutual interests between Iran and Russia with regard to Syria.”

As the relationship between Russia and the West continues to deteriorate, ties between Iran and Russia can improve, with the Syria-Iran-Russia axis growing even more unified in their campaign to combat terrorism across Syria. In the short term, necessity trumps everything else.

The Essential Saker II: Civilizational Choices and Geopolitics / The Russian challenge to the hegemony of the AngloZionist Empire

Leave a Reply

Leave a Reply

Click here to get more info on formatting

(1) Leave the name field empty if you want to post as Anonymous. It's preferable that you choose a name so it becomes clear who said what. E-mail address is not mandatory either. The website automatically checks for spam. Please refer to our moderation policies for more details. We check to make sure that no comment is mistakenly marked as spam. This takes time and effort, so please be patient until your comment appears. Thanks.

(2) 10 replies to a comment are the maximum.

(3) Here are formating examples which you can use in your writing:
<b>bold text</b> results in bold text
<i>italic text</i> results in italic text
(You can also combine two formating tags with each other, for example to get bold-italic text.)
<em>emphasized text</em> results in emphasized text
<strong>strong text</strong> results in strong text
<q>a quote text</q> results in a quote text (quotation marks are added automatically)
<cite>a phrase or a block of text that needs to be cited</cite> results in:a phrase or a block of text that needs to be cited
<blockquote>a heavier version of quoting a block of text...</blockquote> results in:

a heavier version of quoting a block of text that can span several lines. Use these possibilities appropriately. They are meant to help you create and follow the discussions in a better way. They can assist in grasping the content value of a comment more quickly.

and last but not least:
<a href=''http://link-address.com''>Name of your link</a> results in Name of your link

(4)No need to use this special character in between paragraphs:&nbsp;You do not need it anymore. Just write as you like and your paragraphs will be separated.The "Live Preview" appears automatically when you start typing below the text area and it will show you how your comment will look like before you send it.

(5) If you now think that this is too confusing then just ignore the code above and write as you like.

Comment

Name:

E-mail:

32 Comments

Well, as a good gesture and for better and more efficient fight against terrorists, Iran should make agreement with Russia and allow permanent use (until terrorists are defeated in Syria) of Iranian military airports for Russian long distance bombers. That would most certainly be a gesture of closer cooperation and no doubt would make a great impact in Syrian war theater.

From The Moscow Times 10th April.
: “The head of the Russian Federation Council’s Defense and Security Committee says Russian armed forces based in Syria will not attempt to intercept any American missiles, if Washington orders another airstrike.

On Monday, Russian Senator Viktor Ozerov told the news agency Interfax, “Our armed forces are in Syria to fight terrorism — not to defend against external threats. That’s not our mandate, and we’re not going to intercept anything,” he said, adding that the Syrian military still has every legal right to try to shoot down the missiles.”

So this spells out the Russian position very clearly. Any outside attack against Syria from a foreign power eg Israel, Turkey or the US will not be responded to by Russia in any way. This does seem consistent to what we have seen so far.
Presently Syria is a long long way away from defending itself from barrages of Tomahawk missiles. Even it it was able to shoot down some of the missiles it could not stop them coming and the cost of the defensive missile systems would be higher than the cost of the Tomahawk missiles being fired at them. So that is not sustainable.
It seems at the moment that no one is willing or able to make the US pay a price for their aggressive policies.

US claims that 58 missiles hit that airfield…without doing any damage to two 3000 meter long runways are the current battle of that information war…in which you have already accepted defeat and the brainwashing that goes with it…

The US infowar is absurdly fake and every technical specialist in this field who has apprised the photographic and video evidence has burst this like a soap bubble…

But it is easy enough for the US mind control machine to make the sheeple believe anything…

I have posted on another thread a lot of technical information…regarding that tomahawk strike and the resulting level of destruction…which basically rises to that of a mosquito bite…

Long story short…the Russian defense ministry says only 23 Tomahawks hit the airfield…and I would say after looking at actual damage photos and videos…[see above links]…that this is probably understating the actual numbers…

The Tomahawk strike is…in actual fact…a huge Defeat for the US military capability…

It took only 124 Tomahawks to flatten Libya…200 to flatten Serbia…and now we are supposed to believe that 58 Tomahawks could not put one single airfield out of action for more than a few hours…?

The problem with your take is that you are buying all of the misinformation that is freely circulated…

As for that Russian Senator…well…I had never even heard of this guy until now…Since his name does not start with VVP I would say anything that comes out of his mouth…especially as quoted by the Fascist mouthpiece Moscow Times…is worth about as much as the newsprint you put in the bottom of the parakeet cage…

As for this so-called ‘analysis’ by this Aram Mirzaei…whom I also had never heard of until now…I would say it would make for excellent employment similar as above…

This guy doesn’t know the first thing about the Russian people and their resolve…the RF and VVP do not make security guarantees to genuine partner if they do not mean it…you can take that to the bank…

Damascus has received such a security guarantee…Russia will not be backed down in Syria…whether Iran chooses to contribute or not…Russia is used to going it alone…who came to Russia’s defense when the mightiest army ever assembled decided to make the fatal mistake of invading the unconquerable people…?

Exactly nobody…Every Russian understands this very well…

The fact that Russia is not making loud noises about retaliation as this ‘analyst’ seems to think is wise…only serves to show how Russia conducts its geopolitical business…quietly and without making much noise…striking by surprise when nobody expects it…

Who of these smarty-pants we are hearing from now had predicted in 2015 that Putin would send in the RF military to stop the regime change business in its tracks…

Makes it easy for people to follow your flow and have reference links. Excellent stuff.

The one point I might say is the US wanted to inflict damage. It did that.
It was the attack that mattered geopolitically (to change the politics of the Geneva and Astana talks, to insult Russia’s Military among the naive public and to shock President Xi’s group at dinner in Florida). Didn’t matter about the runways or shelters. The US even bragged to MSM that they ruined the commissary/canteen of the airbase. Imagine if they hit a few latrines.

Clearly, they skipped the missiles into the shelters to burn things. Only a few seemed to come down vertically or obliquely whatever the path.

I also think they may not have launched 60. There’s a hell of a lot that never landed. It’s one thing to be spoofed off target by bad GPS, but to disappear?

I think they launched 25-26. I can’t prove it. But to claim the 36 missing were deflected off course and crashed to Earth because of defenses requires proof of at least half went down, not just missing for me to believe that was the case. Show me 15-18 missiles somewhere. Or make a sound argument that they were hit immediately at launch and went into the sea. I’ll accept that with some factual basis of technical means.

But you contributed a lot of good hard factual information that indicates the missiles are not what the Spec Sheet says they are and also, incendiary warheads were used.

Maybe they have Ukrainian sailors aboard and those guys sold the real warheads and guidance systems. Ukies sell all their military weapons.

In fact, maybe some Americans aboard those ships spoofed the launches. The real missiles are out on the black market and all we saw in the launch videos were Chinese fireworks loads flaming out over the Mediterranean. (Would make for a good scene in a movie. George Clooney the ringleader of the larcenous sailors.)

On April 7, the US boasted to the world it launched 59 tomahawks to strike the al-Shayrat airbase, Syria. But more than 30 mysteriously vanish.
Where did they go? Did they fly to Area 51, or perhaps to Tunguska in Siberia, the site of an equally mysterious event in 1908.
And what role did the even more mysterious RF EMF defences play?Stay tuned…..as the TV “programmers” are constantly exhorting us…..

It just so happens unexploded US tomahawks can be converted into car bombs by terrorists.

The ISIS militants claimed that the key parts of the Tomahawk such as its rocket engine, turbo wings, electronic processors, front camera, and explosive charges were all still intact. And rather gleefully, the militant group supporters stated they could now make ‘car bombs’ with the missile.

Could it be that the missing 2017 missiles have also been used in car bombs?.

Speculation. But a week after the tomahawks vanish in Homsthere’s a diabolical “car bomb” killing 70 people trapped in a convoy wanting to enter Syrian government controlled Aleppo.

Coincidence?. In my view, no.

Despite the hysterical US theatrics stating it launched the tomahawks “spontaneously” and in response to an “atrocity”; a sober and analytical deconstruction of the event _ and the timeline surrounding it _ strongly supports the suspicion the US strike was premeditated and the “sarin” narrative is a complete falsification – a fabrication.

On April 3-4 the USN had 2 vessels “propositioned” off the Syrian coast.
On April 4 the Syrian airforce targeted what it believed was a ammo depot in ISIS held Khan Sheikhoun. Some 60 days earlier the RF used the deconfliction hotline to advise the US of the date the site would be targeted.

So, on April 4 the Hollywood Helmets just happened to be “prepositioned” with cameras rolling, filming themselves conducting some sort of charade that they billed as a “sarin” attack.

On April 7 the US announces it launched 59 tomahawks to strike the Syrian al-Shayrat airfield in Homs.

But it was evident immediately that more than half the missiles had missed their mark. In fact it seems they’ve completely disappeared.

If the US “pre-positioned” it’s warships, and had is resident ISIS “White Helmets” in place in anticipation of this appalling and cynical fabrication of a “sarin” attack, it is not an entirely preposterous suggestion that they also “donated” some tomahawk = car bomb-making material to their ISIS affiliates.

After the United States and its Arab partners increased their offensive against the Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, reports have emerged that US Navy is using the long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles for targeted attacks.

However, far from being intimated by the all-weather, subsonic cruise missile – Tomahawk, the ISIS militants are finding ‘deadlier’ ways to use these missiles, which cost the US military more than $1 million each.The supporters of the Sunni militant groups on social media claimed that the ‘unexploded’ Tomahawk missiles are more useful for making car bombs.
According to the US military, it had launched a combined 47 Tomahawk missiles from two warships, the USS Philippine Sea, a guided missile cruiser, and the USS Arleigh Burke, a destroyer, reported Washington Post.

The ISIS militants on social media shared a series of pictures of the ‘unexploded’ missile that was fired on an ISIS base on Mount Poet in Homs.
“”Photos released by the militant group said several of its operations had include attacking check points, prison breaks and suicide bombings has extensively used car bombings.””””

And here we are in 2017: Some 30 tomahawks go missing, and a week later we have;

A car bomb, disguised as a van that distributed aid supplies, targeted people, who were waiting for their evacuation.

UN chief condemns deadly terrorist attack on convoy in Syria that left over 70 dead

A car bomb, disguised as a van that distributed aid supplies, targeted people, who were waiting for their evacuation

The report on this diabolical and very real atrocity:

MOSCOW, April 16. /TASS/. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres condemned Saturday’s attack on a convoy of buses with evacuees in Syria, which left at least 70 people dead and about 100 injured.
“We condemn the attack today in Rasheedin, west Aleppo, on 5,000 evacuees traveling from the towns of Foah and Kefraya to government-controlled areas. We express our condolences to the families of the victims of the incident and wish those injured a speedy recovery,” reads a statement, attributed to spokesman Stephane Dujarric.
“We call on the parties to ensure the safety and security of those waiting to be evacuated. Those responsible for today’s attack must be brought to justice,” the statement reads.A car bomb, disguised as a van that distributed aid supplies, targeted people, who were waiting for their evacuation in a militant-held area on the outskirts of Aleppo. The explosion took place near a gas station, and a major fire broke out at the scene.
According to the Syria’s official SANA news agency, the fire destroyed several vehicles of the Red Crescent that accompanied the convoy.
The evacuations are being conducted in accordance with the agreement reached pursuant to the Four Towns agreement between the Syrian government and the armed opposition, covering the government-held towns of Foah, Kefraya, Madaya and Zabadani.
Under the first part of the deal, some 16,000 people are to be evacuated in two stages from Foah and Kefraya, two Shia-populated towns whose residents have been living under siege for two years. Simultaneously, Jabhat al-Nusra militants will be evacuated from mountainous resorts of Zabadani and Madaya near Damascus.

According to the US military, the Ross was in Rota, southern Spain on the 3rd after taking part in a large military exercise ending on 24 March. Even sailing at top speed, it would take 3 days to get to the eastern Mediterranean, ie just in time to fire. As the Russian military has stated, it looks like the missile strike was planned before the ‘gas attack’ not in response to it.

We certainly cannot be sure that RF electronic countermeasures [ECM]…brought down any missiles that are unaccounted for…so I agree completely…

I have already said that I doubt any were downed either by SAMs or by Russian jets…which would be quite easy…a tomahawk is a pretty soft target for a modern fighter jet like the Sukhois…

Up to this point…the aim of my comments on the matter has been to try to first determine…in a technical and rational way what happened at Shayrat…

My conclusion is that this base would have been thoroughly devastated with 58,000 lb of high explosive ordnance…

There is little doubt in my mind that this level of devastation did not happen…the satellite imagery that has been sourced from US does not show what it claims at face value…and I have pointed that out…

To recap…and I have linked previously to the ISI site and what they have put up…the imagery provided consists of one photo that takes in the whole field [about 6 square miles] and does not provide any possible means for the human eye to make out features larger than those aircraft shelters…which would actually be on the order of about 300 ft by 200 ft…

I had previously estimated 100 x 100 ft…but it is clear from looking at these double shelters with airplanes parked inside that each hangar is closer to 100 ft wide as there is lots of room alongside the airplane wings which are a span of about 45 ft…so the width of each hangar would look to be at least about 80 ft maybe even 90 ft…

Then there is considerable wall thickness between each hangar that is about the same width as the hangar itself…if we assume even 80 ft hangar width that makes 240 ft…plus the width of the embankments on either end…so I would say the width of these double-hangar, hardened shelters could easily be assumed to be 300 ft wide…

Then…knowing the width…we can get a scale of the length from the aerial view…which would seem to be about 3 to 2…making the shelter length 200 ft…I would say this is conservative in the sense that I do not believe they could be much smaller than this…

ISI also included several photos that are much closer-in…where the smaller structures can be made out…however there are only a few of these photos on offer…and most of the stuff that has been circled as ‘hits’ on that large map is not presented in close-up…why not…?

Also I have focused on the inconsistencies of the narrative…which has included claims that they were not aiming at the runways…when in 2013 their own report makes clear that the runways would be the primary target…as logic dictates…

Similar contradictory ‘before and after’ US comments have been made about the ease of repairing runways…as well as the tomahawk not being a ‘powerful’ enough weapon…but then claiming one bunker completely destroyed…

I have also tried to bring some technical understanding of the Tomahawk guidance system and what vulnerabilities it may have…and how those might be exploited…I am still working on putting together some more material on that…

All said…I have been proceeding in a completely technical way and not drawing conclusions…other than those which can be drawn quite logically at this point…

First one being is that the US narrative…both official and from various ‘experts’ in the media have been shown to be demonstrably false…to put it mildly…

Second conclusion is that no way that base took 58 tomahawk blasts…

Now I will say that the technical facts of the strike point to the fact that the vital runways have been protected and that it is indeed possible that the missiles were ‘redirected’ in their terminal guidance phase…ie once in the vicinity of the airfield…

We can actually see in one of the ISI photos two craters some distance in front of one of the shelters…again scaling by the deduced shelter dimensions it would seem to be two clear misses about 100 ft or more off target…

Now 100 ft does not sound like much but the Tomahawk precision is said to be much higher than that…

Considering all of what we have to work with…I can say with some confidence that the tomahawks were likely interfered with once they got to the airfield…

And this is what prevented the much heavier damage we would have seen otherwise…

Again…I appreciate everyone’s interest in this and all contributions are most welcome…everyone has made good points or asked good logical questions…

White whale has dug up extremely interesting reports…

Certainly it is a possibility that if some missiles were ‘encouraged’ to clobber into hillsides by Russian ECM…and if this happened on rebel territory…then there may well be some bullpups [the tomahawk warhead] in the hands of terrorists right now…

They can make a very big blast…

Again…we don’t know this to be the case…

We don’t have the entire story…and never might…but all we can do is try to bring some technical information to bear on the subject in a rational manner…

Hi Фланкербандит thanks for your reply, I am always interested in an alternative viewpoint. Unfortunately when I see comments like “sheeple” & “childish notions” one doesnt have to read any further to realize you are epoxy glued to the narrative of one side and are without much evidence. Everyone here knows theres an information war going on and they should know that both sides are spinning their narrative. Of course the US tells bs but also you would have to be naive to think that everything Russia says is the truth the whole truth and nothing but the truth .

Did only 23 tomahawk hit? ISI have produced the best photos Ive seen sofar and they count 44 hits. But even their images are not good enough for me to be sure. Neither Russia or the US have supplied good enough info to prove their case. So I guess everyone can happily believe what they want.

But my previous post was not concerning any of that debate but it was centred on implications of the terms of engagement that are now, for the first time, clearly stated by the Russians. You may not like that mandate or terms of engagement but it is widely reported on RT and other channels, with no one on the Russian side deigning it.

There was a huge car bomb a couple days ago which killed many evacuating civilians, including children. It was done by a terrorist who’d been bused to Idlib, which shows you the folly of Syria and Russia always wanting to negotiate with the terrorists/rebels instead of working harder to kill them. It is said that he and the terrorists handed out snack chips to get the children close before the bombing:
“The animal who executed the suicide bombing is Samer Kharita, a terrorist that had been evacuated to Idlib last month from Zabadani”

@bobnz.
Moscow times is not a reliable news source. Despite what 5-eyes controlled media tell you, opposition media DO exist in RF.
Looking for info – use TASS and also visit the Russian ministry do defence and foreign affairs went sites in English. ….. Surprisingly straightforwardly informative.

Lots of chops at Russia in this piece.
Seems to me the great Iranian state would be looking at a lost Syria if not for Russia. And Hezbollah might have had NATO + a Sunni Coalition + Israel bombing the crap out of it if not for those near-useless Russians.

Iran was about to take a horrific loss in Syria if Sept. 30, 2015 had not occurred.

Expecting Russia to work miracles and defend everyone to the last Russian plane and man is naive, to say the least.

Iran has a huge military, yet fights with proxy militias.
It’s military strategy for Yemen seems to be terminal. The Yemenis will either be bombed into dust or starved into submission.

But then, we only get the bad news. Tehran must have all the good side of these calamities on their TVs to which they have invited those not too stalwart Russkies to come handle for them.

nope, you missed nothing and have put it into a good perspective for others. thanks. I think that one does have to become repetitive when dealing with the insanity of the US – international law becomes a droning word – but needs to be repeated again and again – what else do we have but international law and violence ?

I totally disagree with your exaggerated criticisms of this author’s realistic assessment of the situation and Iran’s attitude. It’s good to get an understanding what Iranians (and their public) thinks. What Iran’s spokesmen stated was realistic and factual. I didn’t see any lack of respect or gratitude.

If we want to talk about ingratitude regarding the Syria affair then let me supply you with a real example of ingratitude (directed against China at the time):
I recall some armchair generals, in the not too distant past, showing ingratitude towards China and proposing stupid things like: “China needs to harden its military by bleeding it in Syria” and why doesn’t China send its Pocket Aircraft carrier to Syria (for what? the liaoning is primitive, unreliable and a sitting duck for the USN). Those were incredibly stupid and bloodthirsty suggestions. I think it would be fair to construe those statements as ungrateful towards the Chinese, not the statements made by the author.

The author does bring up a legitimate concern regarding Russia and it’s interesting friendly ties with Israel. That doesn’t make the Iranians ingrates it means that they are sane and rational to ask the question.

There is “conflict” that few see right away with Iran and Russia. They see it clearly with Iran and Israel but not with Russia in the mix.

Russia will be the Regional Decider. This is already acknowledged by the year and a half processions by all regional leaders, Presidents, Kings, Prime Ministers, Chiefs of Staff and Intel Chiefs (including Mossad and IDF as well as Bibi “4x”.)

Iran is thinking it will be the Regional hegemon one day. Of course, Israel with 350+ nuclear warheads and tactical devices believes it will be the Regional hegemon.

Trump had signaled with words early on that he wanted to extricate the US from regional entanglements as soon as ISIS was defeated. The neocons and Military refuse to allow this. And it won’t happen.

Russia, alone understands this. But Russia can deal with it. It deals with the Hegemon all the time nearly everywhere within its sphere, along nearly all its borders.

Look at the recent CSTO meeting where Putin made his statement about “no color revolutions will be allowed”. He stated that about all the Central Asia nations and Belarus, as well as Russia.

Unlike Russia, Iran has very narrow view of the future. Do the mullahs think Russia is going to step aside and give up its superpower role and relationships in MENA after losing scores of men and pouring treasure into Syria?

Iran is failing to win Syria on its own, or Yemen on its own (and the US will soon go back into Yemen and destroy whatever gains the Iranian proxies have made.) And if things don’t go well in Syria, Hezbollah will face a devastating war vs US+Israel+Arab coalition. It is inevitable without Russia’s presence in the region.

The future (next ten years at least) will see the Hegemon try to reassert absolute rule over all MENA. It has a larger NATO, a larger Arab coalition, and more gas and oil to pump out of the ground and seas. Trump has empowered his generals to act. They will create more chaos. They see Russia and China as their enemy, their rival, their threat to more stars and ribbons and financial rewards post-active career (moving into gas and oil corporations and MIC organizations).

Israel is a tangental player, desperate to get a regional war going so it can destroy Lebanon, grab more land in Syria and demonstrate its hegemonic capacity to destroy the Shiite/Levant threat to Sunni/US interests and Israeli dreams.

The realty is Iran needs peace and development to grow to full size and influence. It can’t get there without Russia and it won’t get there if it doesn’t understand that Russia is the superpower and Iran is a gnat in comparison on the world stage. It’s real future is with Eurasia and OBOR. In fact, Iran has a great future if it can avoid more war. That future is not built on conflict. It is built on intellect, talent, technology, youth, innovation and relationships with greater nations like Russia and China.

I have great doubts the mullahs think that way. Thus, they marginalize and weaken Iran. And have for 38 years. Maybe Putin can teach them a better way?

You don’t like Iran much, do you? Iran is a major country, in every possible way, whether you know it or not.

As for Yemen – aka green ‘Happy Arabia’, most of the Arabian peninsula is desert anyway – it is where the last free people of the Arabian peninsula live, and they’re in no way proxies of Iran, that’s pure JM$M disinformation. It is also the land where the stories of the Old Testament actually come from! See for instance a real expertfrom the region, Dr. Ashraf Ezzat, Egypt.

The only thing I don’t like about Iran is that it also has a 5th column. But I’d say Iran is not a gnat, on the contrary, it is one of the most important – Roth-child mob independent – countries in the world right now.

Yes, one can only hope that the Russian government is acting on behalf of the Russian people’s interest – and the whole rest of the world for that matter – and finally stands up to this bunch of lousy cowardly psychopaths (the Roth-child mob run West), who are nothing, except that no one ever stands up to these windbags.

Or are they also too Zionist corrupted – albeit still far better than the rotten to the core western regimes? Russia clearly has a, by definition deceptively treacherous, Jewish problem in its system as well. As the Saker writes, the Ukraine turns into a rabidly anti-Russian Ashkenazi concentration camp, and the relationship between Russia and Jews improves? That’s remarkable untrustworthy business.

Many Jews are notorious frauds, born actors, notoriously unreliable, as the deceptively traitorous bum Trump – who has in hindsight clearly an Ashkenazi background – again clearly showed.
No wonder the Iranians, due to his foul rabidly anti-Iranian language, weren’t fooled by the thug for a minute (others seemingly passed it off as American stupidity. Me too. But the guy was a complete Hitler-like idiot from the start, as is the whole rotten US-Israeli-Saudi-EU-NATO system).

Those lies have been repeatedly debunked by objective assessments in the past.

That said, I am not in favor of Ahmadinejad’s run for the presidency, his colorful and combative personality will serve the agenda of those who love potraying Iran as “extreme and dangerous” and his firebrand style would be too distracting.

I think he should have heeded the advice of the Supreme Leader and not offer himself as a candidate.

I however expect thst the Election Monitoring Committee of the Guardian Council that is tasked with vetting the candidates to bump him from the list.

It took a letter by 90 rabbis of the chabad-lubavitz cult, delivered by adherents kushner/ivanka for trump to bomb Syria. Falsehood? Its a cult that believes rebbe schneerson was the moshioch (messiah) jews are waiting for and that he will be coming back again?! Go figure whether he will slay the anti-Christ meleokowsky at Lod next year, the southern baptist zios are already organising coach tours for the event to be led by hadjee and cerullo no less !!

A Quick Turnaround Assessment of the White House Intelligence Report Issued on April 11, 2017 About the Nerve Agent Attack in Khan Shaykhun, Syria.
Theodore A. Postol Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and National Security Policy Massachusetts Institute of Technology

” The explosive acted on the pipe as a blunt crushing mallet. It drove the pipe into the ground while at the same time creating the crater. Since the pipe was filled with sarin, which is an incompressible fluid, as the pipe was flattened the sarin acted on the walls and ends of the pipe causing a crack along the length of the pipe and also the failure of the cap on the back end. This mechanism of dispersal is essentially the same as hitting a toothpaste tube with a large mallet, which then results in the tube failing and the toothpaste being blown in many directions depending on the exact way the toothpaste skin ruptures. If this is in fact the mechanism used to disperse the sarin, this indicates that the sarin tube was placed on the ground by individuals on the ground and not dropped from an airplane.

Figure 8
shows the improvised sarin dispenser along with a typical 122 mm artillery rocket and the modified artillery rocket used in the sarin attack of August 21, 2013 in Damascus”

The more i have red military history the more i understand what propaganda machine war is. There is no as media sexy military branch as air power. WW2 ground attack aircraft “decimating enemy armor” or strategic bombers “wiping out enemy towns and cities” are those fanciful stories fed to masses. Reality: they were not crucial at all. They had to penetrate to enemy country and destroyed it’s ground forces and capture industry and demoralise population.

There is lot of real time evidence that 10-15% Tomahawk missiles sucks without any electronic warfare blocking it. And not rest of that 85-90% are not really accurate. Just like in case of WW2 ground attack aircraft and strategic bombing there are always unexpected surprises. Think about using US ground forces fighting near by Hezbollah fighters somewhere there in Lebanon/Syria. Peripheral losses would be heavy. In Vietnam NVA/NLF made their ambushes many times on very near US grunts (like 30- 50 meters). Excellent tactic to eliminate US air power.

So the John Wayne or Clint Eastwood of our modern warfare will still be sitting in his Nevada studio sending drones and guessing the differences of Anshar Al Asham, Al Nusra, Al Al Ah ohhh hoh hoh ??? Our culture has changed and no western countries will take losses of tens of thousands of their own boys in modern slaughter house. Those days have gone. Let’s think real things.

The author makes a fundamental mistake about the Russian treatment of Israel in Syria. Russia is there to defeat the terrorists for its own national security. In order to avoid fighting multiple battles (and the Israelis are expert shit stirrers if they do not get their way), the Russians have convinced the Syrians to allow the Israelis limited attacks that could plausibly be based on Israel’s own legitimate national security concerns. However as soon as Israel abuses that ‘freedom’, it is stomped on. It is Netanyahu that goes to Russia, not the other way around. Russian has reportedly not opposed Syria recently deploying its Yakhont anti-ship missile systems. Being export versions, their range is limited to 300 km. That however covers most of the northern part of Israeli waters.

Russia played a big part in countering the Anglo-Zionist sanctions. As soon as those were lifted, Iran got the S-300 variant system it had ordered that was under sanction. The system was also improved specification as development had improved greatly since the original order. How did Iran pay Russia back for that? By ordering Airbus planes rather than Russian planes.

I have no love for the Iranians, I am not naive like many on this blog that think emotionally about the Iranians. The Iranians are as hard nosed and ruthless as they come. However, attacking them for buying airbus jets instead of Russian jets is misinformed: how can you expect the Iranians to buy Russian commercial jets (which are quite good) when Russian airline companies aren’t buying Russian jets either?

How do you know the Iranians aren’t trying to create economic incentives in Europe to help reinforce the agreement they signed to lift the sanctions.

Russia seems committed to protecting the skies of Syria from further illegal strikes: After all, hitting 36 of 59 isn’t too bad considering the scarcity of Pantsirs and their strategic placements around inside Syria at this time. It appears that one must be able to hit in a variety of methods a variety of missiles at a variety of altitudes launched in a variety of ways/directions.

“On a final note, a crucial obstacle to deeper Russian-Iranian partnership has been Iran’s relationship to the Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah and Russia’s longstanding policy of preserving a good relationship with Israel.”

Fairly sums up what is the root of most of the problems confronting the planet, or rather, what is the main obstacle to solving them: israel and zionazi influence.

“Furthermore, the response towards this aggression was also relatively weak in the sense that not once did the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance threaten to respond militarily to this obvious act of war by Washington. This sort of restraint is not interpreted well by the West as they rather view it as a sign of weakness rather than understanding that Syria-Iran-Russia are doing their utmost to avoid a potential World War. I argue that Rogue States such as the US must be deterred from engaging in such bold acts such as the strike on Shayrat Airbase. Just as the US has “red lines”, Iran and Russia must also have red lines for what they deem as unacceptable.”

This is a struggle against Lucifer. So far, humanity has been held hostage by Lucifer’s wonton disregard towards the risk of global annihilation by daring aggressions everywhere, banking on humanity’s restraint from stepping on slippery slopes that may lead to WW3. Regardless of whether Lucifer thinks a thermal nuclear war can be won, He is ostensibly confident that His opponent dare not entertain the idea. His antics and deeds since the 1990’s manifested as much.

China/Russia should not be held hostage by the threat of large scale wars. Yes, such wars might get out of control, but so be it. Out-of-control scenarios are precisely what MAD is for, is it not? Let Lucifer bear some fear of losing His own Being.

Short of an outbreak of thermal nuclear war, Lucifer (oh, I include NATO, Japan/Korea, and other tag-alongs in Lucifer’s party) WILL not win a conventional war against Russia/Iran coalition in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and FACE certain defeat against China in East Asia. Lucifer might win some initial skirmishes, but will crumble in subsequent attritional proceedings. The reverse is probably true if either Russia/Iran, or China, challenges Lucifer alone on a global basis because Lucifer is still arguably the largest gorilla on this globe. However, I don’t know of these nations ever having that aspiration at this point.

On regional considerations, I therefore agree with Mr. Mirzaei that SOME REDLINES be drawn for Lucifer to tip-toe around. The 59 Tomahawk, before the proof of guilt, should have been one of those redline. Any conflagration against North Korea without NK firing the first shot should be another.

It says Theodore Postol, Professor Emeritus of MIT in Physics and Nuclear Engineering, disputed Whitehouse claim that air attack was the medium of delivery for the gas bombs. He used pictures published by the Whitehouse to show that the gas bomb shells remained in the caves that their explosions created. This evidence implies that these bombs could not have been dropped from high above, because if so they could not have possibly remain in the holes. It is consistent with someone placing the bombs on the ground in the first place, and that could only be done by the rebel forces.

Ok…so this is an important question and deserves a closer look…mainly because the general public is quite unaware of how the global civil aviation industry works…

Part of why this question is so important is that the civil aviation industry is a vital part of a nation’s military industrial capacity…

Civil aviation is one of the most technologically intensive industries…encompassing advanced dynamics and propulsion…electronics and instruments…materials and manufacturing…and much more…

There are only a handful of nations with an advanced aviation industry…and they employ many thousands of highly skilled technical people who would play a crucial role in any large-scale conflict between major powers…

Any credible WW2 historian will tell you that Stalin defeated Hitler largely because Germany could simply never hope to match the sheer industrial output of the Soviet Union…same for the US and Japan…both of these superpowers could simply build more planes and tanks…while Germany and Japan could not…

Note the US built 300,000 aircraft and the Soviet Union 298,000…Germany and Japan could only muster 184,000 and 76,000 respectively…even the UK built 131,000 aircraft…

Also worth noting is that the US did not have a standing armaments industry before WW2…but the country produced millions of automobiles and thousands of civil aircraft…this production capacity was quickly turned into making warplanes and tanks…

In any future war between Nato and Russia the two respective sides’ civil aviation industry…or lack thereof…could play a decisive role…

What we have seen immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union has been a catastrophic collapse in the Russian civil aviation industry…

’…In late 1980s, the Soviet Union accounted for 25% of the worldwide civilian and 40% of the worldwide military aircraft production…’

’…while in 1990, the country had produced 715 civilian aircraft, by 1998 the number had dropped to 54 and in 2000 only 4 civilian aircraft were produced…’

The military aviation industry managed to survive and is on a strong rebound now…largely due to export sales…

But looking back on the collapse of one of the world’s biggest civil aviation industries…it is quite clear that this has been a boon to Nato’s long-term goal of crushing Russia…

What we saw in the Yeltsin years is that Russian carriers started buying Boeings and Airbuses instead of Tupolevs and Ilyushins…why?

The reason is quite simple…the Russian constitution created an independent central bank…under basically foreign control…answerable to the IMF and the global banking cabal that runs the Bretton Woods post WW2 financial order…

The result was stratospheric interest rates…even today with inflation down to 4 percent…lending rates are over 10 percent…

For air carriers…buying new airplanes is like buying a new car for consumers…it is a big ticket item that must be financed…Russian carriers bought or leased Boeings and Airbuses because they could get them at 3 or 4 percent instead of 20 percent interest a year…

At the same time…the foreign-owned central bank made no credit available to the aircraft manufacturers…which basically killed them…

Even today…after 17 years with VVP at the helm…neither he nor anyone else can do anything about the Russian central bank…for a very good read on this you can download this book…Rouble nationalization…The Way to Russia’s Freedom…

When Putin came to power and cleared out the Khazar parasites…one of the first priorities was to resurrect the civil aviation industry…

This would be a long-term project taking many years and facing many roadblocks from the West…which is determined to prevent this for obvious reasons…

It is important to note that any large-scale, high technology endeavor is more about the intellectual resources than the bricks and mortar resources…in this respect Russia is…in many objective appraisals…second to none…

The city of Zhukovsky…named for one of the founders of the science of aerodynamics…can rightly be described as the single greatest concentration of aerospace intellectual power on the globe…

The airplane has already garnered some export success…Mexico’s Interjet has 22 currently in service and another 8 on order…

’…In a recent passenger comfort survey, Interjet passengers actually said they preferred the Sukhoi over the Airbus…

Another happy customer is Irish carrier CityJet…which now has four SSJs in service with another 11 due for delivery this year…the company’s CEO said…

’…CityJet is very excited to be the very first airline in Europe to choose this game-changing aircraft that delivers a level of comfort, plush interior design and cabin capacity that is far superior over all of its competitors…’

So we see that the SSJ program is the first new post-Soviet passenger jet and is making slow but steady headway…as of October 2016, 125 aircraft have been built…

Another, much bigger new aircraft program that is coming on line is the 200 passenger Irkut MC-21…which is now entering the flight test phase and is expected to enter service within the next few years…

’…A Boeing statement said the Iranian contract would support tens of thousands of U.S. jobs for the 777-300ER jets and nearly 100,000 U.S. aerospace jobs for the whole package…’

Clearly our ‘friend’ Iran prefers to create thousands of jobs in the countries that have ground its people into submission…

Now the political background to all this is that Iran was not able to buy civil aircraft for many years due to sanctions…but let us recall how the sanctions started and how the nuclear deal of 2015 which removed many of the sanctions came about…

Let us recall that Iran made a strategic decision decades ago to develop nuclear energy for domestic use…in order to free up its hydrocarbon resources for export…Iran’s nuclear program was launched in the 1950s with Western partners…but this cooperation was terminated after the Islamic Revolution of 1979…

’…From the beginning of the 1990s, Russia formed a joint research organization with Iran called Persepolis which provided Iran with Russian nuclear experts, and technical information. Five Russian institutions, including the Russian Federal Space Agency helped Tehran to improve its missiles. …

By the 2000s Iran was being accused by the West of carrying out clandestine uranium enrichment programs…on its face a lot of this seemed overtly political…

However, by 2006…even Russia and China agreed to UN Security Council resolution 1696…which did not include sanctions…However…Iran refused to accept the resolution…which quickly led to the unanimous adoption of UNSC resolution 1737 a few months later…which did include sanctions…

In 2006 VVP was president of Russia…and the RF was the main defender of Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear power as a signatory of the non-proliferation treaty…in fact VVP and the RF bent over backwards to help Iran…which was stubbornly intent on pursuing a hardline policy of obstruction and non-transparency…

Let us remember that the RF had a lot of money at stake as the sole supplier of nuclear energy technology to Iran…yet even so…the fact that RF agreed to the UN sanctions tells you that the Russians were not too pleased with their ‘problem child’…

Of course…after the UN sanctions were approved…the US and the West quickly ratcheted up their own illegal sanction measures…none of which were part of the UN resolution…and which were designed to economically cripple the nation…including freezing its assets in the West…cutting it off from the global banking network…and much more…

For nearly a decade…the sanctions would strangle the Iranian people…all the while Russia was working tirelessly on the diplomatic front to reach an agreement…

Let us remember what finally broke the diplomatic logjam…Russia stepping in as guarantor for Iran’s transfer of its huge stockpile of uranium to the RF…

’…Under the proposed agreement, the Russians would convert the uranium into specialized fuel rods for the Bushehr nuclear power plant…Once the Uranium is converted into fuel rods, it is extremely difficult to use them to make a nuclear weapon…That could go a long way toward alleviating Western concerns about Iran’s stockpile…

So we see here that Iran was stubbornly refusing to come to terms…We can safely conclude that VVP approved the UNSC resolutions of 2006 because Russia was genuinely concerned about nuclear proliferation vis a vis Iran……although certainly not endorsing the hardline Western position which was quite frankly over the top…

So what is the result of all of this…?…we see that Russia has been in Iran’s corner…and in fact has been its only international defender [China as usual being a smiling Buddha in anything not related to its own ambitions]…

Long story short…if it were not for Russia…Iran would still be under sanctions and its economy eventually ruined and people impoverished and government eventually toppled…or it could accept the hardline terms of the West and give up nuclear energy forever…

To say that Iran owes Russia a debt of gratitude is surely an understatement…

So what does Iran do in return…?…it rushes into the arms of the very West that was grinding its country into dust… carrying bucketfuls of money to buy Western passenger jets…

Not only that…but the Iranian officials and media have been busy badmouthing Russian aircraft for their supposedly ‘poor safety record…’

’…Iran has not held any negotiations to purchase Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet 100 passenger planes, says Minister of Roads and Urban Development Abbas Akhoundi. “Before any acquisition, we need to make sure about the safety of those planes,” IRNA quoted the minister as saying on Monday…’

This bit of news in Nov. 2015… hot on the heels of the Nuclear deal where Russia saved the Islamic Republic’s bacon…and after the RF sent its military to Syria…which almost certainly saved not only Syria…but Iran itself…

Then early this year…more baseless badmouthing of the SSJ which is providing excellent service and garnering praise from Mexican and Irish carriers flying the airplane…here is one sample of Iran media’s disgusting BS…

’…For almost two years, Iran remained reluctant to buy SSJ-100, amid the Russian plane’s bad reputation in Iran over its poor safety record. However, recently Iranian authorities hinted that they may be considering the purchase of the short-haul plane…

The fact of the matter is that the SSJ has not had a single incident or accident in millions of miles of scheduled service to date…as early as 2013…Mexico’s Interjet was reporting exceptional dispatch reliability of 99.7 percent…

The SSJ did suffer a tragic crash during a pre-production demonstration flight in Indonesia…which was the result of egregious pilot error…the distracted pilot basically flying the airplane into the side of a mountain…

’…The final report, released 18 December 2012, indicated that the accident was caused by crew members ignoring terrain warnings that they had incorrectly attributed to a database problem. The crew had turned off the terrain warning system and were unaware that they were operating in close proximity to mountains. The crew, including the captain, were engaging in conversation with potential customers as the aircraft impacted the ground…’

It should be noted also that while ’mechanical’ issues do play a role in about one in six crashes…these issues are much more often the result of maintenance issues…and airline corner-cutting… rather than actual design flaws…which are statistically the least occurring cause of crashes…

Also curious is that while Iran is badmouthing the SSJ100 with its perfect scheduled flight safety record to date…the country has decided to buy 20 ATR-72 short-haul turboprop airliners…with a known design deficiency…

’… Deputy Roads and Urban Development Minister Asgahr Fakhrieh-Kashan said Iran Air has signed a contract with ATR to purchase 20 short-haul passenger jets.…’

The French-Italian built ATR-72 has had several icing-related crashes…In 1994 American Eagle flight 4182 was brought down due to icing that was traced back to a design issue…

’…The National Transportation Safety Board determines that the probable causes of this accident were the loss of control, attributed to a sudden and unexpected aileron hinge moment reversal that occurred after a ridge of ice accreted beyond the deice boots because: 1) ATR failed to completely disclose to operators, and incorporate in the ATR 72 airplane flight manual, flightcrew operating manual and flightcrew training programs, adequate information concerning previously known effects; of freezing precipitation on the stability and control characteristics, autopilot and related operational procedures when the ATR 72 was operated in such conditions…’

’…Atmospheric icing occurs when water droplets in the atmosphere freeze on objects they contact. This can be extremely dangerous to aircraft, as the built-up ice changes the aerodynamics of the flight surfaces, which can increase the risk of a subsequent stalling of the airfoil. For this reason, ice protection systems are often considered critical components of flight, and aircraft are often deiced prior to take-off in icy environments…’

’… Meanwhile, a technical problem appeared in the empennage of the Russian jet during the air show raising doubts as to suitability of the aircraft for Iran’s aviation fleet…’

Yet another issue raised by the Iranians is that of US approval…this is in fact a legitimate issue…

’…The Russian planemaker Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company is trying to obtain a license from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control to sell its Super Jet 100 aircraft to Iran, according to an official with the Association of Iranian Airlines…’

You may be asking yourself what the heck is OFAC…and what does the US Treasury Dept have to do with Russia selling airplanes to Iran…?

Well…the fact of the matter is that the OFAC can block sales from third countries to Iran…or other countries that the US is sanctioning…if those third-country products contain US-made parts…which the SSJ does…

So we see that the US can actually nix a Russian deal to sell passenger jets to Iran…but if we look beneath the surface…it seems this is just another Iranian excuse…even Iranian media are reporting that Sukhoi is already ‘following procedures’ to get the OFAC license…but of course there are still Iranian-made hurdles…

’…Chances of SSJ-100 depend on the confirmation of Iran Civil Aviation Organization regarding the airworthiness of the aircraft as well as the OFAC license…’

Again…the Iranian media spew ‘airworthiness’ garbage about the SSJ…which are flying with perfect records in Mexico and Ireland…and with great passenger satisfaction…

Compare that Iranian BS to an American report on the SSJ 100…including a first-hand report from a flight on one of Interjet’s routes into Miami…

’…Both Interjet and the Superjet deserve high marks. Only 10 years old, Interjet has become a major player in Mexico and Central America with distinguishing service and operational service. The plucky Mexican airline and well conceived Russian aircraft seem to have entered into a very positive marriage. As the SSJ approaches its 100th delivery, Interjet’s indisputable success with the Superjet could spur on more orders from the west and the east as well…

So we see here the hurdles that Russia’s civil aviation industry faces…after being ground into dust by Yeltsin and his Khazar gang of looters…the industry faces a slow uphill battle to regain its world stature…the industry itself is doing great work in getting new state of the art aircraft into the air…like the SSJ and MC-21…

VVP is doing an end run around the Khazar Russian central bank…to boost domestic aircraft sales…

And slowly but surely…the global airline industry is going to vote with its common sense and picket book…the passenger comfort…fuel efficiency and overall value proposition of Russian passenger jets is going to be hard to ignore in the long run…no matter what obstacles the West may put up…

But the thing that is hard to swallow is the case “friends’ like the Islamic Republic…which is doing its best to set off stink bombs in its relations with its number one supporter and protector…and the one country that has and continues to stand between it and the West’s aggression…

Even in Syria…the RF could in fact walk away tomorrow and leave Iran to its own devices…with Syria down Iran itself would quickly find itself in a world of hurt…

Probably realizing that their BS and badmouthing of the SSJ has deeply alienated a large segment of the Russian leadership…and for sure much of the population…which I doubt feels much sympathy for the Islamic Republic anyway…Iran is now making noises about actually buying 100 SSJs…although I am not holding my breath…

’…We are working out with our Iranian partners supply of our Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft. Our colleagues have confirmed that there is a concrete agreement for 12 planes already. In the short term, we are considering 30 aircraft. This is just the beginning, because overall, the Iranians are interested in purchasing 100 Sukhoi Superjet aircraft…’

Another excellent article by you, this time regarding the Sukhoi SuperJet 100 and the Russian Civil Aviation industry. Your work is excellent, and you’re going to get tired of hearing/reading this, but once again, you need to consider creating your own blog -or- contribute direct articles on Saker website.

A suggestion to Saker Staff: Why not a section on Saker site specializing on Russian technology and or weapons systems and their real capabilities to educate and counteract the BS badmouthing we see in NATO MSM). Many of Flanketbandit’s postings as well Tankguy (also Saker’s professional knowledge of weapons systems) would put this section off to a gold start.

Back to Flankerbandit:
Sorry for the delay in responding, but I only became aware of it just 30 minutes ago.

Excellent info I read the whole article/posting (have not had a chance to look at the links, but knowing that you really know your stuff, I don’t need proof to believe your points and will focus on the links that provide additional info).

Last time you thanked me for my kind words (you’re being too polite and cultured), my words were not kind, they were factual ;-)

Specifically re this topic, I was well aware of many of the issues you listed especially the issue of internal credit rates vs near zero interest rate international Ponzi scheme credit (USD). Also, notice that I said that I wrote that “[Russian jets] are very good”(so I have done what I can to see thru the AZ MSM slander fog).

As an aside, I do remember reading a few years ago a complaint from VVP as to why Russian domestic carriers were exclusively buying western (Boeing & airbus) platforms instead of from Illyushin and other Russian aerospace manufacturers. The article (I don’t recall the publication), was sympathetic to the VVP’s point of view, did mention that, aside from finance, a big driver for these airlines to avoid domestic Russian civil aircraft manufacturers, was the lack of support (or poor support) from Russian aircraft Cos. That was the state of the industry then and even Putin conceded that part of the problem. Even very friendly nations and partners that are engaged in joint ventures with Russian aviation and MIC units, like India, have complained (in the past) about about absolutely atrocious support and spares after the main aircraft or weapons systems has been sold to their customer. My own relatives in the Indian military (Airforce, army and navy) have confirmed this to me in the past. This situation has improved greatly thanks to changes implemented in Russia, but the bad impression still lingers.

So just performing an educated guess, Iranian purchases of Western jets may be a product of several factors as follows:
-as stated earlier: A bribe to large western aviation contractors to act as a disincentive to future sanctions
-corruption and kickbacks to members of the Iranian elite (eg: Rafsanjani, the billionaire mullah, was known for this and other corruption; now you know why the Western MSM called him a “moderate” and “reformer”)
-burnt fingers from past dealings with Russian suppliers and a tendency to assume nothing has changed
-Leverage in areas unrelated to aviation.
-Knowing they can buy spares for western craft in a large market

You will note that I mentioned that Iran is as ruthless and hardnosed as they come. From personal experience and familiarity with language and culture, I can tell you that Iran has a very cruel, ruthless, cunning and treacherous side to it as well as a very beautiful, courageous, generous, civilized and cultured side. This is true at the personal level, the business level and governmental level. This is why I don’t have a “kumbaya” sentimental and theoretical view on Iran, but a realistic one.

It isn’t only Russia that helped Iran, India helped too: breaking western sanctions that both China and Russia complied with. Yet, despite this, Iran has tried to renege or re-negotiate certain has fields they had agreed to give Indian state corporations extraction rights to. So Russia is not alone in dealing with this phenomenon. (BTW India is now playing hardball with Iran and begun significant reductions in Iranian crude imports as retaliation). Yet, simultaneously, the Iranians and Indians have accelerated their cooperation in chahabar port by advancing the schedule ahead by an entire year and accelerating the International North-South-Corridor from India to Iran to Russia to Europe. Shipments and trade have already begun on this route. So this comes with the territory when dealing with Iran: some ups and some downs. I’m glad that you’ve haven’t fallen for the emotional sentimentalism that Iran is fully trustworthy partner that acts out of morality and “doing the right thing”. Still, I agree with you, they are doing far more than the selfish smiling Buddha, China.

Sitemap

Saker Android App

An Android App has been developed by one of our supporters. It is available for download and install by clicking on the Google Play Store Badge above.

All the original content published on this blog is licensed by Saker Analytics, LLC under the Creative Commons CC-BY-SA 4.0 International license (creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0). For permission to re-publish or otherwise use non-original or non-licensed content, please consult the respective source of the content.