funny how gfs forecasts this over a week out, now backs off and the other models now come on board with it.still as trav said, very unsettled for a prolonged period, great news for inland areas.hard to predict rainfall amounts due to storms but going to be a widespread event. looking forward to this weekend and next week. finally something to watch!

Recent and current model guidance is indicating the increasing likelihood (trend) we will see a prolonged outbreak of thunderstorms across a large area of eastern Australia. Likely areas include from the Top End (NT) through QLD & NSW into Victoria with the main focus being on QLD and eastern parts of NSW & Victoria.

Not every day will produce severe thunderstorms in one area, however the atmospheric conditions over this period will lead to an overall higher chance. Setups will vary day by day however some of these are likely to be severe with storms producing damaging to potentially destructive winds, large hail and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding.

Note: These individual daily setups can only be forecast with a higher degree of accuracy using a lead time of around 1 to 2 days. This is due to the incredibly high complexity of atmospheric setups and dynamics of severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

EWN will continue to monitor the potential upcoming severe thunderstorm outbreak and provide more information in our forecasts each morning.

The upper trough will move slowly across the south of the state, with the surface trough shifting a little eastwards into the southeast inland in response. These features, combined with a moist and unstable airmass, will lead to rain areas over the southeast in the morning, and a band of showers and thunderstorms extending from the northwest of the state to the southeast corner. Rain areas are likely to develop again around the southeast in the the evening. Mostly fine conditions likely in the southwest. A medium chance of showers and storms is also expected through the tropical interior, while the east tropical and central coasts should only see showers for the most part.

Sunday 7 December

The upper trough will move over eastern Queensland while a new upper trough will shift into southwestern parts. The surface trough will shift further westwards towards the southwest of the state. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the state, particularly through northern and eastern Queensland. Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in the southwest. Rain areas are likely again through the southeast.

Monday until Wednesday

A series of upper troughs traversing eastwards across the south of the state, with the surface trough mostly over the southeast inland. These features, combined with a moist and unstable airmass, will lead to a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms in a band extending from the northwest of the state to the southeast corner, with mostly fine conditions likely in the southwest. A medium chance of showers and storms is also expected through the tropical interior.