Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.

Race

Date

Team Rating

Katy Kunc

Avery Bussjager

Michelle McKinney

Caitlin Shepard

Sarah Crawford

Madisyn Peeples

Kentucky Bluegrass Invitational

09/09

799

19:27

20:36

20:35

21:01

21:14

21:19

Louisville Classic (Gold)

09/30

729

19:37

20:20

20:34

20:43

21:06

21:31

Nuttycombe Invitational

10/13

798

20:00

20:13

20:34

20:55

21:41

21:53

SEC Championship

10/27

768

19:22

20:17

20:37

21:19

21:13

21:49

Southeast Region Championships

11/10

845

19:29

20:41

20:47

21:16

21:05

21:16

NCAA Tournament Simulation

Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.

Team Results

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Ave Score

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

NCAA Championship

0.8%

27.4

658

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

Region Championship

100%

9.4

275

0.1

1.2

1.8

3.8

9.5

16.6

21.0

15.7

12.9

9.5

6.3

1.3

0.5

0.1

Individual Results

NCAA Championship

Advances to Round

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Katy Kunc

95.9%

40.7

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.2

0.8

0.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.8

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.2

1.5

Avery Bussjager

0.8%

149.5

Michelle McKinney

0.8%

179.0

Caitlin Shepard

0.8%

217.5

Sarah Crawford

0.8%

227.0

Madisyn Peeples

0.8%

244.3

Regional

Ave Finish

Finishing Place

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

Katy Kunc

6.4

6.6

8.2

9.3

8.7

7.7

6.8

7.7

6.8

7.1

5.8

5.8

4.3

4.0

2.9

2.3

2.2

1.4

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

Avery Bussjager

36.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.5

2.1

1.0

2.3

1.8

2.0

2.9

Michelle McKinney

51.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

1.0

Caitlin Shepard

79.7

Sarah Crawford

96.1

Madisyn Peeples

118.9

NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total

Region Finish

Chance of Finishing

Chance of Advancing

Auto

At Large Selection

No Adv

Auto

At Large

Region Finish

1

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

1

1

2

2

3

0.1%

100.0%

0.1

0.1

3

4

1.2%

12.5%

0.1

0.1

0.1

1.1

0.2

4

5

1.8%

2.8%

0.1

1.8

0.1

5

6

3.8%

4.0%

0.1

0.1

0.1

3.6

0.2

6

7

9.5%

2.1%

0.1

0.1

9.3

0.2

7

8

16.6%

1.2%

0.1

0.1

0.1

16.4

0.2

8

9

21.0%

21.0

9

10

15.7%

15.7

10

11

12.9%

12.9

11

12

9.5%

9.5

12

13

6.3%

6.3

13

14

1.3%

1.3

14

15

0.5%

0.5

15

16

0.1%

0.1

16

17

17

18

18

19

19

20

20

21

21

22

22

23

23

24

24

25

25

26

26

27

27

28

28

29

29

30

30

31

31

32

32

33

33

34

34

35

35

36

36

37

37

38

38

39

39

40

40

41

41

42

42

43

43

44

44

45

45

46

46

47

47

48

48

49

49

50

50

Total

100%

0.8%

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

99.2

0.0

0.8

Points

At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection.
Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.