My Money's on Vegas

Oct 30, 2009

Another storm, another cold snap. It seems as if the Northeast is insistent on making good on winter. I spent Saturday skiing at Mad River Glen in 20-inches of fresh snow; on Sunday, there was another foot. Wow. And now we're setting up for sub-zero temps over Tuesday night.

I was intrigued by this story (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17650675/), especially in light of the fact that $3 gas already exists in some US markets. Imagine the relief in those regions.

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End sarcastic tone here. What I found really intriguing were the caveats: no major Gulf Coast hurricane, no unexpected international tensions, and no refinery woes. I don't know about you, but if I were the betting sort, I'd sooner try my luck in Vegas than bet against these three.

And, of course, if Saudi Arabian oil production has truly peaked, then all bets are off. That's the real elephant in the room. The others are all temporary (potentially catastrophic, but temporary) constraints. But if SA has peaked (and if it hasn't, it will before long), then $3 gas is going to seem like the buy of the century. So I guess those folks in California and Hawaii should feel relieved, after all.