Monday, 11 January 2010

Percentage Changes By Event Pre/Post Polyurethane suits

One area of the swimming world which I believe has been overlooked is a statistical analysis of the effect Polyurethane suits had on the sport. We hear about how many WRs we've seen since they were introduced but that is where the figures stop. I've chosen to look closer at the impact of the suits on WRs. By publishing these figures I hope to show which events moved on faster than others since the introduction of Polyurethane suits. This should give us some insight into which events we may see new WRs in the next few years. If you take a slight leap of faith - the lower the percentage change, the less impact the suit had on the pre-Polyurethane WR and the more likely they could be broken in 2010 suits.

.

Pre-Poly WR

Post-Poly WR

%age Change

.

50m Freestyle

21.64

Alexander Popov

20.91

Cesar Cielo

3.373%

.

100m Freestyle

47.84

P. v.d Hoogenband

46.91

Cesar Cielo

1.944%

.

200m Freestyle

1:43.86

Michael Phelps

1:42.00

Paul Biedermann

1.791%

.

400m Freestyle

3:40.08

Ian Thorpe

3:40.07

Paul Biedermann

0.005%

.

800m Freestyle

7:38.65

Grant Hackett

7:32.12

Zhang Lin

1.424%

.

1500m Freestyle

14:34.56

Grant Hackett

14:34.56

Grant Hackett

0%

.

50m Backstroke

24.8

Thomas Rupprath

24.04

Liam Tancock

3.065%

.

100m Backstroke

52.98

Aaron Peirsol

51.94

Aaron Peirsol

1.963%

.

200m Backstroke

1:54.30

Ryan Lochte

1:51.92

Aaron Peirsol

2.082%

.

50m Breaststroke

27.18

Oleg Lisogor

26.67

van der Burgh

1.876%

.

100m Breaststroke

59.13

Brendan Hansen

58.58

Brenton Rickard

0.93%

.

200m Breaststroke

2:08.50

Brendan Hansen

2:07.31

Christian Sprenger

0.926%

.

50m Butterfly

22.96

Roland Schoeman

22.43

Rafael Munoz

2.308%

.

100m Butterfly

50.4

Ian Crocker

49.82

Michael Phelps

1.151%

.

200m Butterfly

1:52.09

Michael Phelps

1:51.51

Michael Phelps

0.517%

.

200m Individual Medley

1:54.98

Michael Phelps

1:54.10

Ryan Lochte

0.765%

.

400m Individual Medley

4:06.22

Michael Phelps

4:03.84

Michael Phelps

0.967%

.

4 x 100m Freestyle

3:12.46

USA

3:08.24

USA

2.193%

.

4 x 100m Medley

3:30.68

USA

3:27.28

USA

1.614%

.

4 x 200m Freestyle

7:03.24

USA

6:58.55

USA

1.108%

.

.

.

Pre-Poly WR

Post-Poly WR

%age Change

.

50m Freestyle

24.13

Inge de Bruijn

23.73

Britta Steffen

1.658%

.

100m Freestyle

53.3

Britta Steffen

52.07

Britta Steffen

2.308%

.

200m Freestyle

1:55.52

Laure Manaudou

1:52.98

Federica Pellegrini

2.199%

.

400m Freestyle

4:02.13

Laure Manaudou

3:59.15

Federica Pellegrini

1.231%

.

800m Freestyle

8:16.22

Janet Evans

8:14.10

Rebecca Adlington

0.427%

.

1500m Freestyle

15:42.54

Kate Ziegler

15:42.54

Kate Ziegler

0%

.

50m Backstroke

28.09

Li Yang

27.06

Zhao Jing

3.667%

.

100m Backstroke

59.44

Natalie Coughlin

58.12

Gemma Spofforth

2.221%

.

200m Backstroke

2:06.62

Krisztina Egerszegi

2:05.24

Kirsty Coventry

1.09%

.

50m Breaststroke

30.31

Jade Edmistone

29.8

Jessica Hardy

1.683%

.

100m Breaststroke

1:05.09

Leisel Jones

1:04.45

Jessica Hardy

0.983%

.

200m Breaststroke

02:20.5

Leisel Jones

2:20.12

Annamay Pierse

0.299%

.

50m Butterfly

25.33

A Kammerling

25.07

Therese Alshammar

1.026%

.

100m Butterfly

56.61

Inge de Bruijn

56.06

Sarah Sjöström

0.972%

.

200m Butterfly

2:05.40

Jessicah Schipper

2:01.81

Liu Zige

2.863%

.

200m Individual Medley

2:09.72

Yanyan Wu

2:06.15

Ariana Kukors

2.752%

.

400m Individual Medley

4:32.89

Katie Hoff

4:29.45

Stephanie Rice

1.261%

.

4 x 100m Freestyle

3:35.22

GER

3:31.72

NET

1.626%

.

4 x 100m Medley

3:55.74

AUS

3:52.19

CHI

1.506%

.

4 x 200m Freestyle

7:50.09

USA

7:44.31

AUS

1.23%

If we break this down by stroke, we find some interesting results. I've taken the percentage changes from the WRs of 50s, 100s and 200s of all 4 strokes and compared the total effect.

From these figures it appears that, in terms of WRs being broken, the suits benefited male and female Backstrokers and Freestylers significantly more than they did male and female Breaststroke and Fly swimmers. I predict that the WRs in the Women's Breaststroke events especially could be at risk in 2010 suits sooner than many would expect.

I predict the first 5 Individual WRs to be broken in the near(ish) future

Women's 1500m Freestyle - 15:42.54 - Kate Ziegler set her mark in a non Polyurethane suit and so this has to be the favourite for the first WR to go with 2010 suits.
Women's 200m Breaststroke - 2:20.12 - Annamay Pierse was only 0.299% (0.38 secs) under Leisel Jones non-Poly mark. With Jones, Soni and Pierse driving each other on, this WR is a definite possibility.
Women's 800m Freestyle - 8:14.10 - Rebecca Adlington was just 0.427% (2.12 secs) under Janet Evans' 1989 mark. Judging by Adlington's sub 4:00 SC time at Duel in the Pool in a 2010 suit I think her current WR in this event under threat.
Men's 200m Butterfly - 1:51.51 - Michael Phelps only bettered his non-Poly WR by 0.517% (0.58 secs). Who would put it past Phelps to be the first swimmer to break a Polyurethane WR in a 2010 suit? Not me.
Men's 1500m Freestyle - 14:34.56 - One of the truly historic WRs in world swimming. Grant Hackett's ridiculous mark from 2001 was one of only 2 WRs to survive the Polyurethane onslaught. Some have predicted that this mark will remain well into this decade, but with the chasing pack including Mellouli, Cochrane, Park, Zhang and Prilukov this will be a record they will be desperate to beat.

1 comment:

The way I think of it, if the athletes couldn't get a record in a full polyurethane suit, what chance do they have without one? I think the 1,500 records will survive for quite some time, especially the men's. The women's record might fall if some younger swimmer (maybe even Sutton) improves rapidly or Kate Ziegler makes a good return or Adlington swims this one.

I agree that the men's 200 fly and women's 200 breast records are very vunerable, and I think Adlington can get back to where she was in 2008 without a LZR and challenger her own record.

I think the women's 400 IM record could be vunerable. The swimmers at Worlds were tired from a long week of swimming, and I think Rice (who was not in her best shape in Rome) and Coventry and possibly Hoff and a few younger swimmers can get back to that record by London 2012, if not sooner.

Also look for the 200 IM record to fall, as neither Phelps nor Lochte wore anything more than a LZR to set that record (Phelps wore legs only, Lochte the full suit), and I think those two can push each other under 1:54 in the next few years.