Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Day's low is in

This morning two pieces of news hit the market. At 8:15 am the ADP employment report came out and knocked the ES down from 1169 to 1163. The market then rallied until the Chicago Purchasing Managers report was released to subscribers at 9:40 am. This news knocked the ES down from 1167 to 1161. Yet 45 minutes later the e-minis have rallied to 1168, a new high for the pit session today.

I think this is a very bullish response to negative news. It is telling me that the day's low point has been established. I think the up swing that has begun today will carry to 1185, but that the best part of the move may not start until next week - Friday is a holiday in the US and trading has been narrow and dull all week.

3 comments:

Couldn't agree more Carl. My calendar suggests we will see the top of this leg up to 1185 on 19 April followed by a mild selloff ending 30 April...thus setting the stage for a more powerful rally to 1225 on 2 June.

I agree with you, this market is very solid. There are many who want to buy into this market before they miss any more of the rally. Also, despite the overhanging threat of a sell signal, which may not even occur if we get a nice rally from the initial claims data and unemployment data to be released tomorrow and Friday respectively, this market will likely rally strongly right into the November elections, maybe to 1360 or better if we get lucky. Just a wild hunch.

Follow me on Twitter

Twitter Updates

My Public Twitter Feed - Real time trade reports can be accessed through www.carlfutia.com

About Me

I write three financial blogs. The first is Carl Futia.On this blog I post daily "guestimates" of the current trends and trend potential in important markets. Once a week I post an explanation of my views on one of these markets with illustrative charts.
My second blog, Carl Futia Real Time, is subscription based. It is a real time trading seminar in which members receive my real time analysis of the E-mini S&P futures and can watch me trade them. In this seminar I explain how I calculate support and resistance levels and how I recognize market "rejections" of support or resistance which then determine the current trend directions.
My third blog is called The Art of Contrarian Trading and is based on my book of the same title. On that blog I focus less on day-to-day market details and more on swings in investor sentiment, the "information cascades" which I talk about in my book.