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Summary
• Predominantly Shiite Iran emerges from the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s fall with considerable power and influence in Iraq as Iraqis themselves struggle to acquire a semblance of unity and forge a new political order acceptable to Iraq’s three key groups: Shia, Kurds, and Sunnis. Iran’s leaders meet with Iraq’s most influential personality, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani; American diplomats do not meet with Sistani. Iraq’s new elected leaders make visits to Tehran and negotiate on substantive issues, including border security and joint energy projects. Iranian businessmen are investing heavily in Iraq’s overwhelmingly Shiite southern regions, and Iran’s intelligence operatives are deeply embedded throughout Iraq’s nascent security forces and within the Shiite militias that have tremendous street power in the south, especially in the city of Basra.
• Yet Iran faces a number of dilemmas with its Iraq policy that cannot, in the last resort, be decoupled from the broader challenges it faces in the region, especially its relations with the United States. Iran has reason to fear chaos in Iraq. It has reason also to worry about an eventually successful U.S. policy that leads to the establishment of a secular, democratic state. In the short run, its primary concern is that the nuclear standoff with the United States and Europe could lead to further deterioration with the United States that at some point could lead to the use of force.
• Nevertheless, Iran’s leaders appear to have calculated that they can withstand the diplomatic pressure they are facing from the United States, the Europeans, and many members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and that even if sanctions are imposed, Iran has the will and financial resources to ride them out.
• Despite Iran’s undoubted success in embedding itself deeply into Iraqi politics and its continued, almost gleeful defiance of the United States, the European Union, and the IAEA on the nuclear issue, it would be unwise for Iran’s leaders to take their current good luck for granted. The Islamic Republic faces significant social and economic challenges that can only be made more difficult by alienating the key Western industrial countries. The embarrassing and objectionable statements by Iran’s new president calling for Israel’s destruction have harmed Iran’s international image and caused great anxiety at home. Regionally, Iran has poor relations with its Arab neighbors, and it cannot be assumed Iraq’s Shiite community will remain friendly and grateful indefinitely. Iran’s vital national interests could be helped by ending the standoff with the United States. Likewise, the United States has more to gain than lose if it adopts a more coherent and pragmatic policy toward the Islamic Republic.
Introduction
Iran has emerged as one of the great beneficiaries of the U.S.-led war to overthrow Iraq’s Saddam Hussein regime. The irony of this development is clear: Iran was placed on an “Axis of Evil”—along with Iraq and North Korea—by President Bush in January 2002. One justification for the U.S. war against Iraq was the Hussein regime’s presumed weapons of mass destruction and its linkages to al Qaeda and the broader threat of radical terrorism. Yet Iraq’s new political elite has established close ties with the Iranian regime, which is still regarded by the Bush administration as the world’s number-one state sponsor of terrorism and a country determined to pursue weapons of mass destruction. Iran’s influence in Iraq is now greater than it has been for decades: Its leaders meet with Iraq’s most influential personality, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani; U.S. diplomats do not meet with Sistani. Iraq’s elected leaders make visits to Tehran and negotiate on substantive issues, including border security and joint energy projects. Iranian businessmen are investing heavily in Iraq’s southern regions, and Iran’s intelligence operatives are deeply embedded throughout Iraq’s nascent security forces and within the Shiite militias that have great street power in the south, especially in the city of Basra. Yet Iran’s successes in Iraq come at a time when the Bush administration and the European Union face serious challenges with respect to Iran’s nuclear program. These challenges have intensified following the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-liner, as Iran’s president in June 2005.
Scuffles Broke out at Tehran Plane Crashes Site, 116 Killed

December 06, 2005
Reuters
The Financial Times
TEHRAN -- An Iranian military plane carrying at least 94 people burst into flames and smashed into a Tehran apartment block on Tuesday, killing all those on board and others on the ground, police and witnesses said.

Interior Ministry Spokesman Mojtaba Mirabdollahi told the ISNA students news agency the death toll was 116.

SCUFFLES WITH POLICE

Passerby Hassan Hedayati, his face covered in dust and hands caked with dried blood, said he was among the first on the scene.

Do you remember back a few months when it was reported that the CIA had determined that Iran was probably 10 years away from being able to develop a nuclear bomb? It was in all the papers, and made almost everyone feel much relieved. It certainly put those hot-head alarmists and warmongers in our places. We had been citing Israel's assertion that by the spring of 2006 Iran could have the bomb.
My, how time flies. This week Mohamed ElBaradei, the chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirmed Israel's assessment to the British liberal newspaper the Independent, and stated that if Tehran indeed resumed its uranium enrichment in other plants, as threatened, it will take Iran only "a few months to produce a nuclear bomb."

78 journalists die in Iran crash

Written by Siber World News Team
Wednesday, 07 December 2005
http://www.sibernews.com/the_news/world_news/78_journalists_die_in_iran_crash_200512072940/آ
TEHRAN: A military cargo plane attempting an emergency landing Tuesday in Tehran clipped an apartment building and crashed short of the runway, killing at least 115 people, including 78 journalists who were en route to cover military maneuvers in southern Iran. The victims also included 21 people who were either in apartments that were engulfed in flames or cars near the base of the 10-storey building.
Air pollution forces schools in Iran capital to close down

TEHRAN, IRAN -- Western diplomats in the Iranian capital Tehran expressed concern Tuesday, December 6, about reports of growing persecution of Christians in Iran, including the murder of a Protestant house church pastor. "There is consternation," after 50-year old Pastor Ghorban Tori was reportedly stabbed to death November 22, a diplomatic source linked to the Dutch embassy in Tehran told BosNewsLife.

The Next Iraq Offensive

December 06, 2005
The New York Times
Wesley K. Clark
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/06/opinion/06clark.html
While the Bush administration and its critics escalated the debate last week over how long our troops should stay in Iraq, I was able to see the issue through the eyes of America's friends in the Persian Gulf region. The Arab states agree on one thing: Iran is emerging as the big winner of the American invasion, and both President Bush's new strategy and the Democratic responses to it dangerously miss the point. It's a devastating critique. And, unfortunately, it is correct.

EU to rap Iran over nuclear standoff

Hope fades over Russian proposal
By Mark Heinrich, Reuters | December 7, 2005
http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/articles/2005/12/07/eu_to_rap_iran_over_nuclear_standoff/آ
VIENNA -- Top European Union foreign ministers plan a declaration of dismay today over Iran's apparent thumbs-down to a Russian proposal designed to defuse its nuclear stalemate with the West, diplomats said yesterday.
Analysts said Iran now seemed confident it could win a showdown over suspicions it was seeking an atomic bomb, given opposition in the UN nuclear watchdog agency and Security Council to calls for sanctions against Tehran, as well as foreign dependence on exports of Iranian oil and gas.