Global cotton ending stocks at all-time high

USDA raised exports for cotton and rice in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, but sharply raised world cotton ending stocks. Here’s more:

Cotton

USDA reduced projected U.S. cotton production by 119,000 bales based on ginning reports, while raising exports by 400,000 bales, reflecting very strong shipments in recent weeks. Ending stocks are now forecast 500,000 bales lower than last month, to 3.4 million bales, equivalent to an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 23 percent.

Forecast world cotton ending stocks were raised sharply this month, to a record 66.1 million bales, due partly to adjustments for India. In addition, the government of China’s accumulation of cotton in the national reserve is constraining free supplies, thereby boosting its imports while limiting consumption. China’s forecast ending stocks now account for 35 percent of world stocks.

World production for 2011-12 was reduced about 500,000 bales while world consumption was reduced 1 million bales.

Rice

Projected rice imports were raised 500,000 hundredweight to 20.5 million (in long-grain) based on the pace of imports. Rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 123 million hundredweight, down 1 million (in long grain) from last month, and a decrease of 11 percent from the previous year record.

Projected exports were raised 3 million hundredweight to 92 million as net sales for March picked up significantly, and totaled over 325,000 tons, compared to less than 200,000 tons in February.

The long-grain export forecast was raised 1 million hundredweight to 58 million, largely due to increased sales to Venezuela. The combined medium- and short-grain export projection was raised 2 million to 34 million primarily due to increased sales to Turkey and South Korea.

Rough rice exports are projected at 32 million hundredweight, up 1 million from a month ago, and combined milled- and brown-rice were increased 2 million (rough-equivalent basis) to 60 million.

U.S. rice ending stocks were projected at 39 million hundredweight, 1.5 million below last month, and 9.5 million below the previous year. Projected long-grain ending stocks were lowered 500,000 hundredweight to 24.1 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks were lowered 2 million hundredweight to 12.2 million.

World rice production was reduced 1.7 million tons to 463.7 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Burma, Colombia, Egypt, and Indonesia. Global consumption was reduced 4.1 million tons to 458.8 million, still a record. Forecast global exports for 2011-12 were raised 800,000 tons to 33.9 million tons, down nearly a million tons from 2010-11.

Corn

Corn for ethanol in 2011-12 is projected at 5 billion bushels, which was unchanged from the previous month. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average daily ethanol disappearance fell to a 23-month low in January pushing ethanol stocks to a new record high.

According to USDA, the quick start to corn planting this spring and more intended acres across the South raises the potential for a substantial increase in new-crop corn use.

Soybeans

Projected U.S. soybean exports for 2011-12 were increased 15 million bushels this month to 1.29 billion. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 250 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.

Brazil soybean production is forecast at 66 million tons, down 2.5 million from last month as warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall since late February in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul further reduced yield and production prospects. Argentina and Paraguay soybean production estimates also are further reduced this month, reflecting the damaging effects of this year’s drought.

Lower soybean exports are forecast for Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 55.5 million tons, down 1.8 million from last month, and down 13.6 million tons from last year.

Wheat

U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected 32 million bushels lower. Projected feed and residual use were raised 35 million bushels reflecting higher-than-expected disappearance during December-February.

Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 were lowered 500,000 tons as reductions in beginning stocks for a number of countries more than offset a 300,000-ton increase in global production. Global wheat imports for 2011-12 are projected 1.6 million tons higher. Global wheat consumption for 2011-12 was raised 2.8 million tons on higher expected feed and residual usage.