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2018 Reliability Rankings

Did you know that Nick Mullens finished a higher percentage of his games among the top 12 fantasy QBs last year than Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady?

Did you know that only the Chargers delivered more top-24 PPR weeks at RB than the Seahawks did?

Did you know that WR housed the only 2 players who finished 100% of their 2018 games inside fantasy-starter territory?

Did you know that finding a reliable fantasy TE was really as difficult as it seemed last season?

If you answered yes to all of those questions, then you’ve probably already carried out this exercise yourself. In that case, you’re wasting your time right now. Switch back over to Netflix.

If any of those facts surprised you, though, then you might be curious to check out our annual Reliability Rankings for every position.

You’ll find each group ranked by the percentage of weeks they finished inside starter range for PPR formats in 2018. That obviously doesn’t paint anything close to a full picture of weekly production. A wideout who spent 10 weeks inside the top 12 is going to help you a lot more than a guy who finished 10 weeks between 30th and 36th. And a RB who tanked in between his good outings will hurt you more than a guy who just ranked 25th-30th a few times.

But consider this a potentially useful piece, perhaps a tiebreaker between 2 players with similar full-season projections on draft day. We referenced these numbers in many of the player profiles we recently posted.

But we also used the scoring trends as starting points for digging into why a certain player scored the way he did and what it might mean for 2019.

-- Jameis Winston only started 9 games in 2018, entering 2 others in relief. So he actually delivered top-12 outings in 66.7% of his starts. That rate would have ranked 4th. He reached top-12 level in 7 of 11 full outings in 2011 (63.6%) -- and spent more than half of those in elite scoring range.

-- San Francisco’s 3 QB starters last year combined for 7 fantasy starter weeks among 16 games, matching the rates of Philip Rivers and Jared Goff.

-- Aaron Rodgers’ weak 2018 showing in reliability followed him leading all QBs in that category in 2017. Rodgers reached top-12 level in 6 of his 7 outings that year (85.7%).

-- I used a different method to tally QB “reliability” last year -- one I’ll revisit soon to dig further into 2018 QB scoring -- but only 4 QBs delivered top-12 scoring in at least half of their starts each of the past 2 years: Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston. Apparently you should focus on QBs with “W” names.

-- Dak Prescott finished twice among the top 12 in 7 games before Amari Cooper arrived; 4 more times in 9 games after the Cooper trade. He added 2 more fantasy lines in the playoffs that would have ranked top-8 among full-season QB scoring averages.

-- Aaron Jones took over the Green Bay backfield in Week 8. He played less than 40% of the snaps in his 4 appearances before that stretch, but then topped 50% from Week 8 until Week 15, when he suffered the season-ending knee sprain. Jones finished each of those 6 healthy, starting weeks among the top 24 PPR backs. From Week 8 through Week 14, Jones ranked 5th in total fantasy points across formats and top-12 in fantasy points per game. He ranked 12th in carries and 14th among RBs in receptions over that span.

-- Nick Chubb got 10 games after the Carlos Hyde trade and delivered 7 of his 8 “starter” weeks in that span. That 70% rate would have ranked 12th for the season.

-- Marlon Mack played 11 healthy games, falling short of 30% snap share in a Week 2 comeback attempt that proved too early. That boosts his rate to 54.5% (6 of 11 games), which still would have ranked just 20th at the position (by himself, at least).

-- Just 2 of Nyheim Hines’ 4 starter-level fantasy outings came over the 1st 6 weeks, when Mack played just twice and never cracked 40% snap share.

-- Matt Breida played less than 20% of the snaps in 4 of his 14 appearances. He delivered 6 of his 7 starter weeks among those other 10. That 60% rate would have tied Kerryon Johnson for 15th at the position.

-- You will be shocked to learn, I’m sure, that Damien Williams’ 4 “starter” weeks came in the final 4 weeks of the regular season. He ranked 3rd among RBs in fantasy points across formats over that span, trailing Derrick Henry and Chris Carson -- each of whom more than doubled Williams’ carry total during that stretch.

-- Are you wondering which teams racked up the most and/or fewest starter weeks but don’t feel like adding up the numbers yourself? Got ya covered …

-- Five of Tyler Boyd’s top-36 PPR weeks came after A.J. Green’s initial toe injury. But the other 5 came in 8 games with Green around. That rate would have tied for 21st for the season. Boyd also maintained his scoring despite losing Andy Dalton for his final 3.5 games. Boyd ranked 16th across formats through Week 11; top 15 across formats from Week 12 (when Dalton went down) on.

-- Dede Westbrook cracked the top 36 just twice over the first 7 weeks of last season. Then he did so 6 more times over the final 9 contests. Why? He clearly benefited from bye weeks and injuries to others. Westbrook saw his share of Jacksonville targets leap from 15.1% over the first 7 games to 23.1% the rest of the way. But his production actually dipped. Check these per-game averages:

-- All 4 of John Brown’s starter weeks, all 4 of Michael Crabtree’s starter weeks and 3 of Willie Snead’s 4 starter weeks came with Joe Flacco (9 games). That trio tallied 1 total starter week with Lamar Jackson at the helm.

-- Eight of Buffalo’s 11 total top-36 weeks at WR came over the final 6 games, after QB Josh Allen returned from his midseason elbow injury.

-- Josh Reynolds’ 4 “starter” weeks came within the 8 games that Cooper Kupp missed.