Victorious Skin Predictions.

So, I've done a lot of thinking about this over the season about this topic, and I've tried my best to determine what champion will get the skin at the end of the season. First I figured out which champions it wouldn't be, according to this Ask Riot [post](https://nexus.leagueoflegends.com/en-us/2017/11/ask-riot-victorious-champions/) that explains how champions are chosen to receive the victorious skin, "the chosen champion can’t already have a Victorious, Championship, or Conqueror skin." So instantly I crossed off all of those champions:
{{champion:103}} {{champion:22}} {{champion:60}} {{champion:104}} {{champion:40}} {{champion:59}} {{champion:429}} {{champion:43}} {{champion:121}} {{champion:57}} {{champion:25}} {{champion:76}} {{champion:92}} {{champion:102}} {{champion:15}} {{champion:412}} {{champion:110}} {{champion:238}}
After that, Riot says that they try to avoid giving the skin to another champion that "play[s] the same role as a recent Victorious Skin." This means the champion will not be a jungler, so champions that were popular in the jungle this season such as the following below won't get the skin:
{{champion:28}} {{champion:79}} {{champion:120}} {{champion:141}} {{champion:64}} {{champion:11}} {{champion:56}} {{champion:2}} {{champion:113}} {{champion:35}} {{champion:163}} {{champion:254}} {{champion:19}} {{champion:5}}
The next criteria is that the champion shouldn't "have another skin coming out soon." Since they start looking for the champion in spring, I took out every champion that received a skin after the season came around (March):
{{champion:84}} {{champion:12}} {{champion:32}} {{champion:136}} {{champion:201}} {{champion:51}} {{champion:31}} {{champion:122}} {{champion:245}} {{champion:81}} {{champion:41}} {{champion:86}} {{champion:150}} {{champion:74}} {{champion:420}} {{champion:39}} {{champion:222}} {{champion:145}} {{champion:240}} {{champion:236}} {{champion:117}} {{champion:54}} {{champion:21}} {{champion:78}} {{champion:497}} {{champion:33}} {{champion:68}} {{champion:98}} {{champion:37}} {{champion:50}} {{champion:91}} {{champion:17}} {{champion:6}} {{champion:4}} {{champion:8}} {{champion:62}} {{champion:498}} {{champion:157}} {{champion:115}} {{champion:142}}
Following, they added that the champion should not "have a very small number of skins." So again, I took those champions off of the list of suspects:
{{champion:266}} {{champion:268}} {{champion:432}} {{champion:164}} {{champion:69}} {{champion:131}} {{champion:427}} {{champion:126}} {{champion:202}} {{champion:38}} {{champion:203}} {{champion:7}} {{champion:127}} {{champion:82}} {{champion:267}} {{champion:111}} {{champion:516}} {{champion:555}} {{champion:133}} {{champion:421}} {{champion:107}} {{champion:14}} {{champion:72}} {{champion:223}} {{champion:44}} {{champion:48}} {{champion:77}} {{champion:161}} {{champion:112}} {{champion:106}} {{champion:101}} {{champion:83}} {{champion:154}} {{champion:26}} {{champion:143}}
And finally, the last criteria is that the champion doesn't "have a big balance change incoming." I interpreted this as a gameplay or visual update since it they even said this is "the hardest criteria to figure out because balance can be fluid and we’re trying to predict the state of the game six months or so in advance." Being able to predict ahead six months is very difficult, but we know for sure they predicted their scheduled reworks. So this adds these champions to the list:
{{champion:10}} {{champion:20}} {{champion:13}} {{champion:45}}
And that's what they gave us at face value. Now is where the actual "research" began. First, I went and looked at [op.gg](http://na.op.gg/)'s highest win-rate champions, since Riot wants the Victorious champion to represent the season. I used [The Wayback Machine](https://web.archive.org) to view this, so the dates I was able to view op.gg on were limited. I only noticed a few constants, and they had already been removed from my list of suspects. However, they share the same case. Both Alistar and Twisted Fate have remained top 5 for their respective positions all season AND they were both taken off my list for the same reason. They received skins during or after March. Alistar received his Hextech skin on March 26th, and Twisted Fate received his Pulsefire skin on May 17th. I personally think they are the most likely candidates for the skin this season since they fit almost all of the criteria, all except for having skins released recently. Alistar probably has a better chance than Twisted Fate since his skin was released in early Spring. HOWEVER, with all that being said, this is my opinion and there were around 25 champions on the list that I didn't think left an impact this season that could receive the skin:
{{champion:34}} {{champion:1}} {{champion:53}} {{champion:63}} {{champion:42}} {{champion:36}} {{champion:119}} {{champion:9}} {{champion:114}} {{champion:105}} {{champion:3}{{champion:120}} {{champion:24}} {{champion:30}} {{champion:55}} {{champion:96}} {{champion:89}} {{champion:99}} {{champion:75}} {{champion:61}} {{champion:80}} {{champion:27}} {{champion:16}} {{champion:134}} {{champion:18}} {{champion:23}} {{champion:29}} {{champion:67}}
Looking forward to reading your predictions! :) Mine are:
{{champion:12}} or {{champion:4}}

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