Russia is preparing “Donbas scenario” for countries of Europe and Asia

2.06.2014, 21:03

Destabilization operation in Ukraine is one of the links in the far-reaching plan of the Kremlin’.

Such a statement has been made by the director of the Analytical group “Da Vinci AG” Anatoly Baronin, “Kommentarii” writes. As said by him, destabilization in eastern Ukraine is one of the links in the full-scale blueprint of Russia’s policy in the territories of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

On May 30 the group presented an analytical report “Scenarios and economic perspectives of separatism in Ukraine.” In addition to the detailed analysis of the situation in the East and South of Ukraine and economic consequences of separatism, “Da Vinci AG” analytics drew attention to the plans of the Kremlin concerning other regions of the continent.

Anatoly Baronin has singled out several regions of possible destabilization.

East Kazakhstan Oblast, Kazakhstan

- The Speaker of the Parliament of the Republic of Khakassia (the Russian Federation) Vladimir Shtygashev has stated that the East Kazakhstan Oblast of Kazakhstan, or the so-called Mining Altai, is a part of the Russia historically, - Anatoly Baronin notes. – About 40% of the population is Russians there indeed. This territory is rather interesting for Russia, as it borders on Eastern China and opens the direct route for export of Russian energy products and goods to the territory of Western China.

The territory of Mining Altai is known for its mineral resources: gold, zink and oil shale.

- It is undoubtedly interesting for development of enterprises at the territory of Russia, - the expert noted.

South-Eastern regions of Latvia

These territories have rather big enclaves of Russian-speaking population.

- Since the end of the last year Russia started to take a hightened interest in these regions and defense of Russian-speaking population, the right to use Russian in schools, - Anatoly Baronin says. – The special thing about these countries is that the Baltic states had not admitted to citizenship the persons who had not passed the exam on the national language knowledge. This gives a higher degree of tension and opportunity for military actions. The number of protests, meetings of the Russian-speaking community of Latvia is already growing. On April 10 a march against transition to Latvian language of Russian schools was held. All that is supported by pro-Russian organisations, which through an agent network invest in Latvian parties. There are several organisations and parties in which Russia tried to infiltrate its agents of influence.

Ida-Viru County, Estonia

In January 2014 the Foreign Ministry of Russia published a report on resect of ethnic minorities’ rights at the territory of Estonia, especially in Ida-Viru County (Ida-Virumaa). The Foreign Ministry of Russia expressed concern about the situation with human rights of Russian-speaking citizens.

- Holding a referendum in this region according to Donetsk-Luhansk scenario is interesting for Russia for a number of reasons, - Anatoly Baronin notes. – Firstly, they would have an access to the largest oil shale deposit of in Europe. And secondly it means control over the largest electric power plant in Estonia. And thirdly, it gives control over the Narva River estuary, which would an analogue of the events in the epoch of Peter the Great. And historical symbolism means a lot to the Kremlin, as is well-known.

Gagauzia, Moldova

Gagauzia was the first robin of separatism, as in this region on February 2, 2014 a referendum was held on joining the Customs Union. The decision about it was supported by 96% of voters.

- It is not excluded that in case of Moldova’s joining Romania, the results of Gagauzia referendum would be used to destabilize the situation in the region, including the region of Trans-Dniester, - the expert Anatoly Baronin says.

Transcarpathian region, Ukraine

Since 2008 leaders of the Rusyn people’s minority on numerous occasions addressed the government of Russia and asked their integration in Russia to be considered.

Because of non-compact areas of Rusyns’ settlement, their shaping into some administrative unit becomes more difficult, - Anatoly Baronin believes. – However support of Rusyn movement from the Kremlin is considerable enough to create conditions for destabilization of the situation in Transcarpathian region (Zakarpattia Oblast).

The European Union

The Russian Federation invests considerable money in public associations and research centres which influence the formation of public opinion at the territory of Europe, experts state.

- We have checked this information in particular in Greece and Italy, - Anatoly Baronin said. – Russia is actively trying to create its agent network basing upon right, far right parties and non-governmental organisations in the EU, which is demonstrated by the membership of monitors from these countries at the so-called referendum in Crimea. We believe that Russia is to support separatist in Spain and Belgium actively as well.

A certain journalist organisation “Justs” is works in the capital of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, which gets direct instructions from a group of informational propaganda of Russia Today TV channel and “RIA Novosti”, Anatoly Baronin stressed.

- They are engaged in posting propaganda materials in foreign mass media, in Western Europe for instance. They the situation in Ukraine in the light which is favourable to Russia, - the analust Anatoly Baronin stated.