If Trump is re-elected narrowly next year, and suffers economic calamity in his second term along with a foreign policy crisis -a definite landslide for Democrats, especially considering that every year more of Trump's base keeps dying off or become too senile to get to the ballot-box. Enough of them may still be alive and conscious enough to give Trump one more term, but for those Republicans following in his wake?

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

But for the others 3, there's a numbers problem. The GOP gained 160k votes, dwarfed by a Dem collapse of 750k.Only in Michigan did Trump improve at all over Romney in raw numbers, yet he still didn't overtake Obama 2012.In Minnesota and Wisconsin, the 2016 GOP numbers were the same or lower as 2012.

Are Rust Belt countries bleeding population so quickly that losing votes to your predecessor in a higher turnout election is considered a positive trend?

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

1). Populism is a meaningless term 2). Trump is perhaps the most neoliberal president in history on everything not relating to trade, and the vast majority of Republican politicians are just as neoliberal (if not more neoliberal) than he is.

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.

It's fascinating to me that so many Blue Avatars here are convinced Trump will hang on to the Rust Belt.

2000 was the last time the Democrat garnered fewer raw votes than Trump 2016 in MI and WI (2004 for PA), so why in the world would he be assured to keep them while losing the White House?

Because of overall trends. The rust belt states are trending republican at a fast rate as the sun belt trends toward democrats. The reason for this is republicans becoming more populist and in some ways economically liberal.

Trump is about the only major Republican who doesn’t personally subscribe to Ayn Randianism, so no. Once he’s out the economic extremists will take that part of the party over full stop. Notice how Trump came out in favor of family leave but the economic extremists shut that down

Whether or not he "personally subscribes" to it, he's clearly implemented Randian policies. the only difference between his economic policies and Ronald Reagan's are on free trade, on everything else he's as far-right, if not more far-right, than Reagan was.

I mean Reagan never advocated a family leave program or for the rich to pay more taxes, but sure. Trump is effectively controlled by McConnell and co. The best thing Trump could do for his reelection chances would be to join up with Dems on a PFL program or something. But he won't do that.