COURSE DESCRIPTION

This course focuses on the premise of business forecasting methodologies used by business managers in today's various industries. This course is focused on presenting basic managerial statistical techniques as well as business forecasting models that are useful for preparing individual business forecasts and long-term planning. Organizations constantly need to make business predictions, whether implicitly or explicitly, about future events that will affect their business and the industry in general. Students will be offered opportunities on how to build business forecasting models, how to produce business forecasts, as well as how to evaluate the reliability of the business forecasts generated. Another key focus of the course will be using past organizational information to predict future trends through various types of business forecasting.

COURSE OBJECTIVES

After completing this course, you should be able to:

Assess the essential business forecasting perspective in order to construct a basic business forecasting foundation. (CO1)

Deconstruct the basic forecasting tools so as to provide a framework for building form the basic to the complex. (CO2)

Deconstruct the time series composition with a focus on going beyond strictly forecasting methods so as to better understand the effect of the time series, which provides a stronger framework to understanding it's link to forecasting. (CO3)

Analyze the exponential smoothing methods, especially those related to the Holt's method and the Holt-Winter's method so as to provide yet another perspective from which to build a business forecasting process. (CO4)

Illustrate the key functional process of simple regression with the key focus of analyzing a single explanatory variable. (CO5)

Compose components related to multiple regression methods in which more than one explanatory variable is analyzed. (CO6)

Assess the Box-Jenkins methodology as well as it's utilization impact on more recent ARIMA models and methods. (CO7)

Evaluation of advanced forecasting models related to advanced time series and regression with ARIMA errors and dynamic regression models as well as neural networks. (CO8)

Distinguishing forecasting for the long term which focuses on 3 critical approaches from judgmental forecasting and adjustments, which focuses on the minimization of biases. (CO9)

Analyzing the use of forecasting methods in practice with a focus various models in use and implementing forecasting models with a focus on usage issues as well as advantages and limitation related to the implementation of the models. (CO10)

COURSE MATERIALS

You will need the following materials to do the work of the course. The required textbook is available from the College’s textbook supplier, MBS Direct.

COURSE STRUCTURE

Business Forecasting is a three-credit online course, consisting of six (6) modules. Modules include an overview, topics, learning objectives, study materials, and activities. Module titles are listed below.

ASSESSMENT METHODS

For your formal work in the course, you are required to participate in online discussion forums, complete written assignments, participate in a synchronous event, complete a midterm assignment, and complete a final project. See below for details.

Consult the course Calendar for due dates.

Discussion Forums

You are required to complete six (6) discussion forums. Discussion forums are on a variety of topics associated with the course modules.

Written Assignments

You are required to complete two (2) written assignments. The written assignments are on a variety of topics associated with the course modules.

Synchronous Event

One synchronous event will be held during week 4 (See course calendar). During the live event, students will discuss their final project topic providing some context on why the chose this topic including an explanation and justification for their choice. Students will dial into a teleconference number (provided by your mentor) at a set time. Your mentor will work with the class to propose a time that works best and accommodates the majority.

Midterm Assignment

You are required to complete a midterm assignment. Detail of this assignment can be found in the Midterm section of your course website. See course calendar for due date.

Final Project

So as to provide an opportunity for the student to illustrate a comprehensive understanding of business forecasting, they will be required to submit a 10 to 12 page paper on a topic related to business intelligence. Within this paper, the student should clearly identified their topic early in the paper so as to best illustrate this topic throughout their paper. Further, the student should offer a variety of key points so as to support each point and illustrating its intentions as well as its support for the overall topic of their paper.

See the final project area of the course website for more details.

GRADING AND EVALUATION

Your grade in the course will be determined as follows:

Online discussions (6)—25 percent

Written assignments (2)—20 percent

Synchronous event (1)—5 percent

Midterm assignment—20 percent

Final project—30 percent

All activities will receive a numerical grade of 0–100. You will receive a score of 0 for any work not submitted. Your final grade in the course will be a letter grade. Letter grade equivalents for numerical grades are as follows:

A

=

93–100

B–

=

80–82

A–

=

90–92

C+

=

78–79

B+

=

88–89

C

=

73–77

B

=

83–87

F

=

Below 73

To receive credit for the course, you must earn a letter grade of C or higher on the weighted average of all assigned course work (e.g., assignments, discussion postings, projects, etc.). Graduate students must maintain a B average overall to remain in good academic standing.

STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS

First Steps to Success

To succeed in this course, take the following first steps:

Read carefully the entire Syllabus, making sure that all aspects of the course are clear to you and that you have all the materials required for the course.

Take time to read the entire Online Student Handbook. The Handbook answers many questions about how to proceed through the course, and how to get the most from your educational experience at Thomas Edison State College.

Arrange to take your examination(s) by following the instructions in this Syllabus and the Online Student Handbook.

Familiarize yourself with the learning management systems environment—how to navigate it and what the various course areas contain. If you know what to expect as you navigate the course, you can better pace yourself and complete the work on time.

If you are not familiar with Web-based learning be sure to review the processes for posting responses online and submitting assignments before class begins.

Study Tips

Consider the following study tips for success:

To stay on track throughout the course, begin each week by consulting the course Calendar. The Calendar provides an overview of the course and indicates due dates for submitting assignments, posting discussions, and scheduling and taking examinations.

Check Announcements regularly for new course information.

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY

Students at Thomas Edison State College are expected to exhibit the highest level of academic citizenship. In particular, students are expected to read and follow all policies, procedures, and program information guidelines contained in publications; pursue their learning goals with honesty and integrity; demonstrate that they are progressing satisfactorily and in a timely fashion by meeting course deadlines and following outlined procedures; observe a code of mutual respect in dealing with mentors, staff, and other students; behave in a manner consistent with the standards and codes of the profession in which they are practicing; keep official records updated regarding changes in name, address, telephone number, or e-mail address; and meet financial obligations in a timely manner. Students not practicing good academic citizenship may be subject to disciplinary action including suspension, dismissal, or financial holds on records.

Academic Dishonesty

Thomas Edison State College expects all of its students to approach their education with academic integrity—the pursuit of scholarly activity free from fraud and deception. All mentors and administrative staff members at the College insist on strict standards of academic honesty in all courses. Academic dishonesty undermines this objective. Academic dishonesty can take the following forms:

Cheating

Gaining or providing unauthorized access to examinations or using unauthorized materials during exam administration

Submitting credentials that are false or altered in any way

Plagiarizing (including copying and pasting from the Internet without using quotation marks and without acknowledging sources)

Submitting the work of another person in whole or in part as your own (including work obtained through document sharing sites, tutoring schools, term paper companies, or other sources)

Submitting your own previously used assignments without prior permission from the mentor

Facilitating acts of dishonesty by others (including making tests, papers, and other course assignments available to other students, either directly or through document sharing sites, tutoring schools, term paper companies, or other sources)

Using someone else’s work as your own is plagiarism. Thomas Edison State College takes a strong stance against plagiarism, and students found to be plagiarizing will be severely penalized. If you copy phrases, sentences, paragraphs, or whole documents word-for-word—or if you paraphrase by changing a word here and there—without identifying the author, or without identifying it as a direct quote, then you are plagiarizing. Please keep in mind that this type of identification applies to Internet sources as well as to print-based sources. Copying and pasting from the Internet, without using quotation marks and without acknowledging sources, constitutes plagiarism. (For information about how to cite Internet sources, see Online Student Handbook > Academic Standards > “Citing Sources.”)

Accidentally copying the words and ideas of another writer does not excuse the charge of plagiarism. It is easy to jot down notes and ideas from many sources and then write your own paper without knowing which words are your own and which are someone else’s. It is more difficult to keep track of each and every source. However, the conscientious writer who wishes to avoid plagiarizing never fails to keep careful track of sources.

Always be aware that if you write without acknowledging the sources of your ideas, you run the risk of being charged with plagiarism.

Clearly, plagiarism, no matter the degree of intent to deceive, defeats the purpose of education. If you plagiarize deliberately, you are not educating yourself, and you are wasting your time on courses meant to improve your skills. If you plagiarize through carelessness, you are deceiving yourself.

For examples of unintentional plagiarism, advice on when to quote and when to paraphrase, and information about writing assistance and originality report checking, click the links provided below.

First-time incidents of academic dishonesty concerning plagiarism may reflect ignorance of appropriate citation requirements. Mentors will make a good faith effort to address all first-time offenses that occur in courses. In these cases, the mentor may impose sanctions that serve as a learning exercise for the offender. These may include the completion of tutorials, assignment rewrites, or any other reasonable learning tool including a lower grade when appropriate. The mentor will notify the student by e-mail. Decisions about the sanctions applied for subsequent plagiarism offenses or other violations will be made by the appropriate dean’s office, with the advice of the mentor or staff person who reported the violation. The student will be notified via certified mail of the decision. Options for sanctions include: