Shifting Ecosystems

Cooperative Model Framework for the Northwest Atlantic and Canadian Arctic Gateway

This research will develop a multi-scale computer model framework of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Canadian Arctic Gateway, providing a basic foundation from which to construct the physical, biological, geological and chemical aspects of the ocean. This model will improve prediction of marine conditions and lead to a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the region.

About the research

The set of models produced by this research project will involve the physical, chemical, biological and geological processes that determine the state of the ocean and the marine life it supports. It will consist of:

Ocean circulation (currents, tides and other large movements of water involved in ocean physics)

Ocean waves (which move water and the life and nutrients it holds and transfer chemicals such as carbon dioxide and nitrogen between the ocean and atmosphere)

Sea ice (including freeze-up and thaw and changes in extent)

Biogeochemistry (which examines the role of oceanic biology, geology and chemistry).

The impact

This research is important because it will contribute to biogeochemical and physical model framework that supports accurate predictions of the Northwest Atlantic marine environment. In particular, the framework will help predict future marine environmental conditions, forecast extreme maritime events (supporting safe shipping) and predict the effects of climate change on shifting ecosystems and variable fish stocks.

The research team:

The team of researchers comes from Dalhousie University and Memorial University of Newfoundland, co-led by Katja Fennel of Dalhousie University, who holds the Canada Research Chair in Marine Prediction and Jinyu Sheng, a Professor of Oceanography at Dalhousie University. In June 2018, Dr. Sheng was honoured with the Francois J. Saucier Prize in Applied Oceanography by the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society in recognition of his work to develop numerical ocean models for the improved understanding of coastal, shelf and ocean dynamics and extreme marine events off Canada’s east coast.

Team members include Youyu Lu, Will Perrie, Entcho Demirov and Eric Oliver.

Research partners:

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Geological Survey of Canada Atlantic

GEOMAR - Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel of Germany

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute of the United States

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts of the United Kingdom

Ocean water is in near-constant motion, circulated by currents around the globe; its flows are analogous to the weather patterns that travel the Earth’s atmosphere. Most ocean life exists in the upper layers of water — the part reached by the sun’s rays — which mean they are pushed by currents. Free-floating plants and animals incapable of swimming against currents are called plankton, a word that comes from the Greek word for “wanderer.” Plankton travel the oceans with the currents.

This is just one way in which the physical dynamics affect biology. These types of relationships between the physics, biology, geology and chemistry of the ocean illustrate why models must integrate these complex variables to form one coherent picture of the ocean environment. In addition to these variables and the interaction of the atmosphere with the ocean, the Northwest Atlantic has the added complexity of sea ice dynamics.

Dangerous ocean heat waves

Heat waves in the ocean are happening more frequently and lasting longer than they did a century ago, concludes an OFI researcher in a new study published in Nature Communications.

Eric Oliver, an assistant professor of oceanography at Dalhousie University and the lead author of the study, said in the early 20th century, there was an average of two marine heat waves per year globally, but now there are three or four. While they used to last 10 days on average, they now last for an average of 13 or 14 days.

In an interview with CBC, he said "It definitely is alarming, and in a place like here in Nova Scotia, where we rely on the ocean not just for recreation, but for income in terms of fisheries and aquaculture and things like that, it supports a lot of people's lives. It's definitely, definitely a concern."