The Blueprint: Jones vs. Matyushenko

Jon Jones will tell you that he has been in this position before, but
he hasn’t.

Headlining a UFC event is a big deal.Distractions increase—from additional media interviews to multiple
promotional appearances to friends coming out of the woodwork with advice and
ticket requests—which means that the pressure to perform also increases.

Some guys clam up under the bright lights.Jones didn’t.The 205-lb phenom gave the fans the finest performance of his career,
when he was given the first opportunity to headline a UFC event back in
March.On that night, he defeated one of
the best light heavyweights in the world, Brandon Vera, with one of the most
vicious first-round technical knockouts of the year, sending a crystal clear
message to the world that he was no longer a hot prospect but indeed a
championship contender.

Just over four months later, Jones is ready to make his Octagon return
after dominating Vera.He will once
again headline the card. This time,
however, Jones’ name is the one on the left side of the promotional material,
not the right side.He isn’t the
opponent.He is the feature
fighter.

That isn’t to suggest that Jones was just another opponent for Vera
heading into the UFC’s debut on Versus.Most of the world expected Jones to win that fight, but those
expectations were based on his vast potential, rather than actual time spent in
the Octagon against top veterans like Vera.Then again, had Vera pulled out the victory, nobody would have been
surprised.Jones was then, and still is
to this day, just a baby in the sport, compared to Vera, who has faced and
defeated former UFC champions.

That is where this fight deviates from Vera-Jones.When Jones steps into the Octagon against
Vladimir Matyushenko, he will be the betting favorite.Few people outside of Matyushenko’s inner
circle actually expect Jones to come up short—and even those probably don’t
give “The Janitor” better than a 50-50 shot at pulling off the upset.

In other words, this event is seen by some as a showcase for
Jones.A win on August 1st is
the next step toward headlining pay-per-view events against the likes of former
champions Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Rashad Evans, Forrest Griffin or Lyoto
Machida.If he blows through
Matyushenko, then Jones might only be another fight or two away from his first
shot at a UFC title. Anything less than a spectacular win will be a very real
speed bump for a machine that has been roaring down the road in overdrive since
Jones showed flashes of brilliance in defeating Stephan Bonnar way back in
January 2009.

Thus, this is, indeed, a new experience for Jones.

In short, I expect Jones to pass this test with flying colors, just
like he has every other test that he has faced inside the Octagon.I think that he is too athletic, too well
rounded and, to be honest, has too much momentum at the moment to stumble in
this fight.

Then again, anything can happen in the UFC on any given night.I’ve written those words time and time again
because that mantra is basically the gospel truth of life in the UFC.Think otherwise?What about Frankie Edgar defeating B.J.
Penn?Better yet, Matt Serra stopping
Georges St-Pierre by technical knockout?Randy Couture stopping Vitor Belfort at UFC 15?Mike Russow surviving a 14-minute beating
only to turn the tables with an impossible come-from-behind knockout victory
over Todd Duffee?Gabriel Gonzaga
knocking out Mirko Cro Cop with a head kick?Randy Couture defeating Tim Sylvia for the UFC Heavyweight
Championship?

I can go on for days, but you get the point, right?

If not, let me spell it out.Every fighter who steps into the Octagon to face another man is taking a
huge risk no matter who he faces because the fight game is probably the most
uncertain sport on the planet in terms of predicting an outcome.

This fight is no different.Jones must take Matyushenko seriously at all times if he wants to avoid
ending up on the wrong end of a shocking result.

Assuming that he is fully prepared and focused when fight time arrives,
Jones should have a relatively easy time winning the striking battle.The New York native has shown hockey-stick
improvement in his standup through his five UFC fights.With his elite athleticism, I expect that trend
to continue on August 1st.

Actually, Jones is so athletic and seems to soak up new techniques like
a bone-dry sponge that I don’t know what to expect from him on the feet, other
than continued improvement.Anyone who
uses spinning backfists effectively against polished strikers Vera and Bonnar
can probably get away with just about anything against a slower, less
accomplished standup guy like Matyushenko.I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones brings axe kicks, crescent kicks,
spinning backfists, or even some sort of karate chop (ok, the chop would
actually shock me) to the table in this fight.

Nonetheless, Jones will enjoy a tremendous height and reach advantage
when he steps into the Octagon with Matyushenko, so he would be well served to
use those advantages by fighting behind an active jab and maintaining enough
distance to where he can land good shots, but Matyushenko has to lunge to land
something of consequence.If he does
that, his speed and length advantages should allow him to pepper his foe at
will from a distance.

Sure, Matyushenko is as strong as a bull and anyone with that sort of
physical power wearing four-ounce gloves can knock out just about any other
human being with a single punch.Jones
must remain respectful of that fact and not stick his chin out or make any
other silly mistakes on the feet.

On the inside, however, things could get a bit dicier.Jones still has the striking advantage, but
Matyushenko at least has the ability to land with bad intentions on the
inside.Plus, fighting in a phone booth
opens the door for takedowns, something both fighters ultimately want to
accomplish, though it is a mission critical part of Matyushenko’s game plan.

The Janitor follows the same game plan in every fight:take the action to the ground, work his
ground-and-pound attack while trying to pass to the mount and then hammer
away.Despite the fact that he has won a
couple of fights by armbar and neck crank, Matyushenko is not really a
submission guy.Arm triangles, Anaconda
chokes and D’Arce chokes, moves that are very effective for dominant wrestlers,
aren’t really in his fight day arsenal.

Jones, who also happens to have a deep amateur wrestling background, is
at his most vulnerable when fighting from his back.Matyushenko knows that, so he will be
singularly focused on taking the New Yorker to the ground.If he happens to win the lottery with a
haymaker right hand, so be it.He won’t
be counting on it, though.

It probably isn’t surprising that Jones will also be looking to take
the fight to the ground.While the New
Yorker doesn’t have the same elite-level wrestling experience, he was a junior
college national champion and has shown a surprising ability to outwrestle far
more accomplished wrestlers inside the Octagon.

Part of that is due to his amazing explosiveness.Jones grabs guys in a clinch and then throws
them like a rag doll.He did it to Vera,
who is one of the better Greco-Roman guys in the division.He did it to Matt Hamill, who is an alpha
male wrestler.And so on.

I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see Jones outwrestle Matyushenko on
Sunday night.His foe has to worry about
defending so many things that he cannot singularly focus on preventing the
takedown.That will prove to be a major
turning point in the fight, because if Jones is able to put Matyushenko on his
back, it will suck the confidence right out of him and make the night that much
easier for the soon-to-be superstar.

The other big factor in this fight is the age difference between the
fighters.Jones celebrated his 23rd
birthday a couple of weeks ago.He is
just a baby in the sport, someone who hasn’t even entered his fighting prime
yet.Indeed, he remains a few years from
his prime, assuming he doesn’t take much punishment over the next three or four
years.

Matyushenko, by contrast, is closer to 40 than he is 39.For anyone not named Couture, 40 is extremely
old for a fighter.Reflexes start to
slow.The chin starts to get a bit more
brittle.And it is tougher to achieve
and maintain peak conditioning.

Then again, Matyushenko appears to be a bit Couture-esque.He is enjoying the best stretch of his
fighting career, winning 11 out of his last 12 fights.Maybe he is aging like a fine Left Bank
Bordeaux.Maybe.But the fact remains that one day he will
step in to the cage and be an old man.Fighters don’t age gracefully.They age overnight, and that night is coming sooner rather than later
for Matyushenko.

My guess is that it happens on Sunday.Actually, old or not, I think Jones is simply too much for Matyushenko,
even a prime Matyushenko.

To be fair, I said the same thing about Tim Sylvia versus Couture, so
don’t count on it.

QUICK FACTS

Jon Jones

23 years old

6’4, 205 lbs

84.5-inch reach

10-1 overall (4-1 UFC)

Lone UFC loss was a DQ for illegal elbow
strikes to Matt Hamill in a fight Jones was dominating

Last 3 fights have ended inside the
distance

Current layoff is 133 days (TKO1 over
Brandon Vera on March 21, 2010)

Longest UFC layoff is 175 days (UD over
Andre Gusmao on August 9, 2008, to UD over Stephan Bonnar on January 31,
2009)

Knockout of the Night (TKO1 over Brandon
Vera on March 21, 2010)

Vladimir Matyushenko

39 years old

6’1, 205 lbs

74-inch reach

24-4 overall (5-2 UFC)

In the midst of a 3-fight winning streak
(2 in a row in the UFC)

All 5 of his UFC wins have been by judges’
decision

Has never been submitted

Current layoff is 133 days (SD3 over Eliot
Marshall on March 21, 2010)

Longest UFC layoff is 183 days (UD3 over
Igor Pokrajac on September 19, 2009, to SD3 over Eliot Marshall on March
21, 2010)

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