BlackBerry vs Windows Phone - What does RIM need to do to secure the No.3 spot long term?

I can't really understand the point many of you are making that RIM is number 3. I don't think You mean as a manufacturer, because Huawei is number 3. And BB10 has so far sold a LOT less than WP, so You Can't Be referring to that platform. Maybe You mean legacy bb devices running the old platform. Guess what, those mean pretty much nothing for bb10 going forward.
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They just need a good product with great support and yes the silly apps.

I haven't used a WP8 or tablet but I absolutely hate the modern UI and apps on my laptop, don't use it all, I go straight to the desktop. I use nothing from the "modern UI". I can't see that I would like it any better on a phone or tablet.

I will say there's a lot of hostility towards RIM for challenging WP in the Microsoft world right now.

Then again, Microsoft is "aiming for third place," and as I've told my clients in the past, don't aim for anything less than #1. If you aim for #1, you might end up in second or third place, but if you aim for #3, you might end up in fifth or sixth place.

There's room for everyone in the huge global cell phone market, but if you want to go big, you've got to aim for #1.

I can't really understand the point many of you are making that RIM is number 3. I don't think You mean as a manufacturer, because Huawei is number 3. And BB10 has so far sold a LOT less than WP, so You Can't Be referring to that platform.
Maybe You mean legacy bb devices running the old platform. Guess what, those mean pretty much nothing for bb10 going forward.
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I can't really understand the point many of you are making that RIM is number 3. I don't think You mean as a manufacturer, because Huawei is number 3. And BB10 has so far sold a LOT less than WP, so You Can't Be referring to that platform.
Maybe You mean legacy bb devices running the old platform. Guess what, those mean pretty much nothing for bb10 going forward.
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RIM is in third place. Chop it up and smoke it however you want bro...thats the way it is.

I will say there's a lot of hostility towards RIM for challenging WP in the Microsoft world right now.

I'm sorry, but the "Microsoft world" doesn't count for d**k right now. It's FAR behind in 4th, and for the simple fact that RIM have sold (approximately) the same amount of OS7 devices in the same period that WP8 has been on the market. An OS which is so long in the teeth that it's beyond funny compared to WP8 selling equal amounts is tantamount to saying that it's not done what it should have.

WP8, in my opinion, is a good OS. But their marketing has been pathetic. Their customer recognition is not what it should be. WP8 is potentially a good rival for any OS.... but customers haven't given it a shot or don't care for it.

The START point would be providing as many languages as WPs do (twice more).Yeah, I know some take me for a crazy person here for keeping saying this : the greatest majority of people here live in English-speaking counties and think that as soon as English is there, everything's OK. It is not ok and that's why all the big players (and all other small players to be honest) do give it attention. A language=a market. 20 languages missing? 20 markets missing in the profit of others, as simple as that.

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No Worries there. BB10 will support 35 languages on Day 1 and RIM is planning to get devices on 250 carriers around the world THIS YEAR. Plus, RIM has always had good language support and this time they are baking it right into the experience.

You speak more then one language. BB10 is 100% for you. How about a keyboard that knows all the languages you do and knows when you're typing in each of them without having to toggle a switch? The BlackBerry 10 keyboard learns who you are! Including the languages you speak and you can type in up to three languages without switching from one to the other via a toggle. Just type a word and the keyboard will know and suggest complimentary words in the new language. How's that for a cool unique feature?

Remember, RIM is Canadian and Canada is Bi-Lingual. Two official languages. We think of things like that that other companies neglect.

The START point would be providing as many languages as WPs do (twice more).Yeah, I know some take me for a crazy person here for keeping saying this : the greatest majority of people here live in English-speaking counties and think that as soon as English is there, everything's OK. It is not ok and that's why all the big players (and all other small players to be honest) do give it attention. A language=a market. 20 languages missing? 20 markets missing in the profit of others, as simple as that.

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Does the PB support the Asian languages so many were calling for not long ago now?

There are several good comments in this thread. Especially the reminder that RIM is still number 3... although the understanding of the word "secure" can be different in different eyes

I especially like hearing from WP8 users. Their experiences are very interesting.
I'd like to just make a comment about this line >>>
Microsoft were never king of this jungle... but I'll add that their arrogance towards PC users does seem to be showing it's face in the Windows Phone market... in that (as with Windows PC OS), when something doesn't work right, it is always a wait for them to sort themselves out... funnily reminiscent of Apple's attitude toward their customers, especially when you think about antenna-gate ("you're not holding it right").

Anyway, to answer the original question: If RIM keep going in the same direction they seem to be on now, then I think 3rd is almost guaranteed, it's almost more down to the users now than it is down to RIM - if they keep things going at the same pace as they have for the past few months (and stepping up a notch following the launch as it looks like they will be).

Just to add a little to the discussion, if the BB10 launches well and their 3rd is as guaranteed as I think it is, then I see them gunning for 2nd pretty soon after.... now that would be an interesting fight

Si.

It will be an interesting showdown between Apple and RIM. I don't see Apple wanting to fight in the consumer space though, I think if RIM starts gaining some serious momentum and market share Apple will take the fight to the court room. Apple would rather try to bleed RIM dry in litigation then compete for consumers.

If RIM does gain traction, they need to hang on to their hardware business though. To take on Apple in the consumer space they are already well positioned being literally the only other company out there that does the whole ecosystem from end to end. Only Apple and RIM own their OS, make their own hardware (RIM more so then Apple as RIM actually does own manufacturing facilities), and have their own App Stores. Samsung needs to be worried, because if BlackBerry 10 catches on, it won't be the next Galaxy that bored with iOS customer are looking to, it will be BlackBerry because of the aforementioned parallels. Apple customers do like that Apple does the hardware and the OS and has that refined user experience that the iPhone is known for. But RIM is going to show that BlackBerry 10 is made to work on BlackBerry phones just as smoothly as iOS on an iPhone. Plus, RIM offers those little things that Apple hates like a removable Battery, user expandable memory, non-proprietary standards like micro-USB, HDMI, DLNA, NFC ect. Want to blow an iPhone users mind, just show them that you don't need a $100 accessory to watch a video sans wires on your DLNA compliant TV that is stored on your phone. People are amazed when I show this off with my OS 7.1 phone.

Long term though they need to really be a forward thinking and forward looking company and really innovate in the areas they plan to grow the business. RIM really does need to become an industry giant in MDM, M2M and they need to leverage and grow the QNX software business. Once they are back to sustained profitability, this may require a few more transactions to consolidate the MDM space and fortify that business. The point is that once Thor rights the ship with BlackBerry 10, RIM needs to focus on the future, and growth again to really secure their positions in the emerging mobile computing market. They appear to have a long term vision and they need to make sure it plays out cause the competition won't be asleep for the next few years while RIM runs away with the market.

Sorry, this is false. Lumia 900 won't get WP8, but 7.8 is coming January 30th...and a leaked Nokia slide shows other minor updates to come down the line.
MS had to come out with the Lumia 900...AT&T demanded an LTE capable phone with a front facing camera. WP8 was nowhere near ready then. It could lead to a bad taste in the mouth for Lumia 900 owners but I understand why Microsoft did what they had to do. The reasons for orphaning the older WP devices are well known (switch to NT kernel) so it's extremely unlikely to ever happen again.

Originally Posted by brmiller1976

Microsoft promised 100% compatibility with WP7 apps, but most of the most important ones -- Spotify, BofA, Chase -- still don't work properly or at all.

They were right. Apps coded for WP7 should work on WP8 with little or no modification. It's up to devs to make any minor fixes for non-compliant apps. I paid $30 for BibleXpress on my iPhone in 2008..it was once rated as by far the best bible app on iOS...it does not work on iOS6 AT ALL and is now the worst rated after a flood of 1 star reviews from irate owners. Not gonna blame iOS6 for this, am I?

Originally Posted by brmiller1976

WP8 is less stable than WP7 was. Random reboots and system crashes happen more often.

Hasn't this issue (which affected a small number of users) been fixed with Portico?

Originally Posted by brmiller1976

Microsoft RUINED the sync experience completely. Zune was great -- WP8 Sync is darn near unusable.
The launch of WP8 was a fiasco -- no coordination.
Launching the SDK on launch day for the hardware meant a downright lousy experience until devs could fix broken apps.
There are still devices out there waiting for the Portico update.
And so on.

Microsoft has shown, consistently, that it's not putting user experience first. It puts carriers and its handset partners first and tells users "shut up and stop whining, it's for your own good."

And while I like WP8, I don't like the attitude that Microsoft has adopted -- including many of its fans -- telling users with real issues to "shut up and deal, we broke it for long term success." Microsoft cannot afford to keep breaking its OS, or it won't go anywhere. Competitors like RIM aren't sitting still, and Microsoft ain't king o' the jungle anymore.

I'm not going to attribute to 'arrogance' what can easily be explained by bureacracy and foolishness on the part of MS execs. Complaining about MS putting carriers first is just hilarious when you consider the pains MS goes through to ensure as little fragmentation as possible. Not sure why the staggered release of the Portico update, but with WP Microsoft pursues one of the most customer friendly update system...nobody gets left behind (apart from the massive break between WP7.8 and WP8).

Microsoft makes so many mistakes, it isn't even funny. They delay updates to just one or two per year...but that allows issues and pet peeves to accumulate. Just the same way they messed up their desktop mindshare by stupidly sticking to releasing Major browser updates at the same time as OS updates...ensuring Chrome and Firefox leapfrogged IE8. The release of WP8 wasn't well co-ordinated, hardware specs are STILL held back by software limitations (1080p displays are big selling points this year for Android phones, WP only goes up to 1280 x 800). SDK release was stupidly delayed as you rightly noted...and the desktop client was seriously gimped.

Even worse, despite the promises of easy code porting between Win 8/RT and WP8, Microsoft just released a game for Win 8/RT that isn't on WP8...in short MS aren't even setting the standard properly.

I like MS, I like Nokia, I LOVE Nintendo. All these 3 companies make some seemingly STUPID decisions that make me scratch my head...I won't chalk it down to 'arrogance' but there's some level of foolishness involved in some of their decision making (please don't even get me started on the WiiU, the idiocy at Nintendo HQ still makes me mad).

BlackBerry is N 3 in user base, but I think Windows Phone is N 3 in units shipped in q4.

In the short term RIM has some chances to regain N3 in units shipped, but is not easy, Windows Phone is gaining traction in the UK, a key market for BlackBerry. The iPhone is strong right now in Canada and USA.
In other countries BlackBerry is being doing good because data plans are expensive and BIS is an advantage. But as data plans become more affordable users are switching to android.

In the long run, there is no chance to be top 3. The unification of the platforms is coming. Windows and Windows Phone use the same kernel, in a couple of years the convergence will be completed, and how can BlackBerry compete against Windows and all its ecosystem? BlackBerry will be pushed to a niche.

texazz, I think Microsoft is arrogant... in the sense that "here is what we've decided, you WILL do it as we have decided, and if it doesn't work for you, you'll just deal and wait for us to get around to fixing it." That is an arrogant attitude.

I also want to reiterate to the RIM folks that getting in a peeing match with Microsoft ain't gonna do BB 10 or Windows Phone any good. If Microsoft and RIM fight against each other, it means they'll destroy each other and leave the market open to Google and Apple. Just like Atari and Commodore's war with each other destroyed both and left the PC market wide open for Apple and Microsoft in the 1990s.

RIM and Microsoft should be aiming for Google and Apple, and largely ignoring each other. There's more than enough room for both.

texazz, I think Microsoft is arrogant... in the sense that "here is what we've decided, you WILL do it as we have decided, and if it doesn't work for you, you'll just deal and wait for us to get around to fixing it." That is an arrogant attitude.

I also want to reiterate to the RIM folks that getting in a peeing match with Microsoft ain't gonna do BB 10 or Windows Phone any good. If Microsoft and RIM fight against each other, it means they'll destroy each other and leave the market open to Google and Apple. Just like Atari and Commodore's war with each other destroyed both and left the PC market wide open for Apple and Microsoft in the 1990s.

RIM and Microsoft should be aiming for Google and Apple, and largely ignoring each other. There's more than enough room for both.

Yep. I agree that the main area of growth is in assailing the Android and iOS fortresses.
RIM needs a cheap BB10 device to compete strongly in India and China. There will be quad core Android phones running Jellybean by late Q1 this year...all for under $200 and some even sporting Dual SIM functionality. These are areas where Android racks up users that often upgrade to something higher end down the line.

Microsoft baffles me. Nearly $30b in Research and DEvelopment in the past 3 years and precious little to show for it. MS spends much more than Apple does on R&D!
They do have an ace in the hole with their next-gen Xbox this year. Deep integration with WP may turn out to be a killer feature for their mobile business.

The trouble Microsoft has is that it's not able to deliver on time, and it always has a "wait until we do X, then we'll hit it big-time" approach. No, don't wait... just win.

And I'm sure RIM will have handsets for under $200. Those Android cheapo devices are AWFUL to use... there's no making up for poor UX, even at a super-low price. Nokia sells lots of Asha phones in India for that reason -- even if Asha ain't high-end dual-core, it has impeccable UX for not a lot of money.