Money Donald Trump's Vision Of A Post-Brexit Trade Deal Could Be Very Bad For Britain

04:20 11 september 2017

04:20 11 september 2017 Source:
Huffington Post UK

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Donald Trump said the US and the UK would secure a deal ' very , very quickly' after he met Theresa May at the G20 summit in Hamburg. Whether politicians are for or against Brexit , they have come to understand its success or failure by how fast the UK can agree trade deals once it leaves the EU.

Donald Trump infuriates EU with private talks with Theresa May for ‘quick’ UK trade deal . DONALD Trump has met Theresa May at the G20 Summit and said a Brexit trade deal can be done " very quickly" with Britain .

“Brexit has caused a lot of uncertainty, a lot of confusion,” Emanuel Adam, director of trade and policy at British American Business, says. The transatlantic network, which represents more than 2,000 companies, asked its members if they thought Britain should leave the EU - 95% said no.

Fourteen months after the referendum, they are trying to adjust to an uncomfortable political reality.

Some of its American members have been working to anticipate the different types of Brexit and what they would mean. “That costs a lot of time and effort,” Adam adds. “That has, at least in certain cases, delayed investment decisions.”

US President Donald Trump took to Twitter on Friday (8 September) to tweet about the deadly Hurricane Irma barreling towards Florida, urging residents to seek shelter or evacuate safely. Trump also assured American citizens that Washington was ready and prepared to respond to the hurricane's expected destructive blow and impact."Hurricane Irma is of epic proportion, perhaps bigger than we have ever seen," Trump tweeted. "Be safe and get out of its way, if possible.

Tweet with a location. You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications.

Power boost for Theresa May as President Trump pledges post - Brexit deal . DONALD TRUMP yesterday promised to sign a “powerful” trade deal with Britain very quickly, telling the Prime Minister that the UK will thrive outside the EU.

Brexit is ambiguous. The UK could, as now weakened Prime Minister Theresa May still aims, leave the Single Market and the Customs Union and restart its trading relationship with the world. Or it could stay in both and remain party to EU deals.

Whether politicians are for or against Brexit, they have come to understand its success or failure by how fast the UK can agree trade deals once it leaves the EU.

The US is its biggest trading partner outside Europe. Barack Obama warned in 2016 that voting for Brexit would put Britain “at the back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US. Trump said the UK would be at the front of any queue. Last month, he said that he and May were working towards a “powerful” deal to be completed “very, very quickly”.

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The post - Brexit Irish border issue. Mike Pence Defends Donald Trump Over Failure To Specifically Condemn White Supremacists. A retelling of Britain ' s vote to leave the European Union and its dramatic political consequences might perhaps be framed as high drama or extreme farce.On hearing

Barack Obama warned in 2016 that voting for Brexit would put Britain “at the back of the queue” for a trade deal with the US. Trump said the UK would be at the front of any queue. Last month, he said that he and May were working towards a “powerful” deal to be completed “ very , very quickly”.

Voices from the UK-US business community have told HuffPost UK Brexit’s threat to existing arrangements looms larger than any opportunity for better trading it might present. Adam says, despite potential advantages of a new US/UK deal after a Hard Brexit, BAB’s members “more and more” would prefer Britain remain in the Single Market and Customs Union.

He says: “If we could take out the uncertainty that’s being created by Brexit; especially when it comes to the future access to the Single Market and Customs Union, that would be the perfect scenario for US business. But we do acknowledge the political situation is currently different one.”

No two countries in the world invest in each other as much as the US and UK - more than a trillion dollars a year. But part of Britain’s attractiveness to US industry is that it is a gateway to the EU which is a larger and “much more important” market, Adam says.

Schaeuble Tells U.K. No `Free Lunch' in Brexit Talks With Europe

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DONALD TRUMP ' S desire to strike a US-UK trade deal could spell the end of the European Union with other member states likely wanting to replicate it, the man tipped to be his Brussels envoy has said. Donald Trump reaffirmed his support for Brexit by inviting Theresa May to strike a trade deal .

“There wouldn’t be any interest in the UK moving away from the EU. There’s certainly the feeling among the US businesses that trade agreements... couldn’t make up for the importance of the EU as a trading partner,” he says.

Adam says a UK/US trade deal could bring the City of London and Wall Street closer together. Britain and the US are more aligned in their economic thinking and TTIP, the EU-US trade deal Trump pulled out of, did little for financial services, he adds. But Brexit still poses a grave risk to Britain’s financial sector.

One EU rule that makes Britain attractive to Wall Street investment is the “passporting” that allows banks registered in an EU country to operate in the whole bloc. Andrew Henderson, a financial services lawyer with international firm Eversheds Sutherland, says losing this could mean US banks leave London.

When asked whether Wall Street thought the benefits of the UK being in the EU outweighed any potential gains from Brexit, Henderson said they did, largely because of the value of passporting.

Dr Adam Marshall, the American-born director general of the British Chamber of Commerce, says his American members with operations in Britain are “just as keen” to learn what Britain’s trading relationship with the EU will be as what its one with the US will.

<p>Britain and the European Union should accept each other's rules governing financial services in a "flexible" trade deal that offers unfettered market access to big banks but protects small investors, according to proposals made in a draft industry document seen by Reuters on Friday.</p>UK Finance, a trade body that represents British banks like Barclays (BARC.L), HSBC (HSBA.L), Lloyds (LLOY.L) and RBS (RBS.L), said in its 91-page proposal on "Financial Services in a new EU-UK Trade Agreement" that "mutual recognition" should be an "overarching principle".

Donald Trump has claimed he wants to secure a quick trade deal with post - Brexit Britain as the President embarks on his new economic programme of putting “America First” – which free trade experts expect to be a return to protectionist policies.

Donald Trump has vowed to be “ very involved” with post - Brexit Britain and slammed the EU for “unfair” protectionism. The President said a deal between Britain and the US could be “ very big and exciting” while expressing his anger at the EU for not being open to free trade .

He said: “They use the UK as a base for accessing other European markets. So the terms of trade between the UK and the EU is as much a priority for lots of American companies we see here as it is for UK companies.”

After Trump pledged to do a deal with the UK quickly, Marshall wrote in The Observer that Britain’s inexperience in such negotiations could only hurt it. Britain hasn’t done a trade deal since 1973.

Marshall says trade agreements can take more than a decade to benefit smaller businesses and advocates focussing on “technical, not very sexy things” like simplifying customs procedures rather than rushing to a deal.

“Businesses feel much more keenly what they could lose... than worry about what they could gain hypothetically from a new deal,” he tells HuffPost UK.

“We’ve heard Mr Trump talking about a very big, very exciting deal but there are some very important practical realities that need to be taken into consideration.”

The US has a track record for doing trade deals quickly. It struck a deal with Jordan in just 18 months and one with Israel after 29. For context, Canada and the EU began negotiating Ceta in 2009 and signed it in 2016.

One political analyst, whose Brexit commentary went viral on Twitter, agreed a quick deal would be bad for Britain.

“Steve Analyst”, who lives in Washington and prefers to be anonymous, wrote a thread of tweets about how Britain was the architect of many EU policies and institutions over the decades, only to walk away from the whole project.

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Donald Trump said that UK and US were working on a trade deal for after Brexit . “There is no country that could possibly be closer to our country. I just want to say thank you very much.

BRITAIN ’ S post - Brexit trade opportunities have been given a huge boost after the UK looks set to become a member of the North American Free Trade Area. Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg is positive about the possibility, saying "What could be bad about it?"

1. Hello, United Kingdom, it’s the United States of America here, and we need to talk.

— Steve Analyst (@EmporersNewC) July 10, 2017

He quotes Simon Evenett, professor of international trade at the University of St. Gallen who said: “I can’t think of a more brutal way for novice UK trade negotiators to learn the ropes than negotiating with the Americans.”

“I hate to contradict him, but learning the ropes negotiating with the Americans and the EU at the same time, or one after the other, is going to be more brutal,” Steve Analyst tells HuffPost UK.

“If the UK go into this looking for a ‘quick’ trade deal, then it is very likely they will come out with a bad deal.”

As an example of a quick deal, he pointed to the AUSFTA, the deal between Australia and the USA that, according to one study, reduced both countries’ trade with the rest of the world by $53 billion over seven years. It was particularly bad deal for Australia’s sugar industry.

“It was reported that not a single grain of Queensland sugar had made it onto American soil,” Analyst said. “This is a real possibility if the UK wants a quick completion.”

Emanuel Adam says the US “will not be the easiest negotiation partner” and it tends to apply “a certain template” to its deals. He is keen for the UK to do what it can to preserve UK-based companies’ ability to move employees around their European offices for temporary work. He adds US business would struggle to adjust if post-Brexit Britain had a system of regulation very different to the EU’s.

“I wouldn’t want to see a lopsided deal. If we rush, our inexperience could be a liability,” Adam Marshall says. “A free trade agreement is not a trophy... It’s not the single most important thing you could do.”

He says many US businesses have operations in the M4 corridor, where Heathrow and the EU give them easy access to the continent.

If a theoretical post-Brexit US deal were pitched to businesses operating in the UK, he says, they would likely respond: “Yeah, that’s great but I’m more worried about the fact my house is burning down in the mean time.”

Boris and PM 'a nest of singing birds' - for now .
Boris Johnson jogged into the lobby of the W Hotel in downtown New York on Tuesday and straight into the cameras of a mini-press pack waiting to interview the Prime Minister on the 18th floor. A sweaty, but sitting, target, we pressed the Foreign Secretary on rumours that he might resign over the Prime Minister's keynote Brexit speech this Friday: a story that has refused to die ever since he took it on himself to pen a 4,200-word treatise on what Mrs May's Brexit deal should look like.Going to resign? "No, no of course not," smiled the red-faced Mr Johnson.He and the Prime Minister were "a nest of singing birds".

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Brexit Britain - special relationship with United States | Express.co.uk - www.express.co.uk

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