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As Obama and McCain go barreling neck-and-neck into the homestretch, advisers for both men know one thing for certain: Nothing is.
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As Barack Obama and John McCain go barreling neck-and-neck into the homestretch, advisers for both men know one thing for certain: Nothing is.

More so than any presidential race in recent history, this one may be determined by forces beyond the control of either candidate.

How far will housing values fall? How far will oil prices rise? Will violence in Iraq erase the gains of the surge? Will Israel attack Iran? Will one of the Big Three automakers go bankrupt? Which neighbor will Russia attack next? Which bank will fail? Will terrorists strike the United States again?

It’s impossible to predict much about this race, but here are seven things to watch as the unknowns become knowns:

1. Will Obama profit from pain?

Voters say the economy is their number one concern — and in nearly every poll Barack Obama enjoys a substantial, but not commanding, 10- to 15-point advantage on economic issues.

He’s doing better than John Kerry or Al Gore did on the economy, he fares best in battleground states. A Democracy Corps survey taken during the GOP convention gave Obama an 11-point edge on the economy nationwide but a 15-point lead in swing states including Ohio, Nevada, Florida and Virginia.

But Obama hasn’t been able to translate that advantage into big leads over McCain in the states hit hardest by the economic downtown. In fact, the race has tightened in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and hard-hit Michigan — despite McCain’s support of unpopular free trade agreements, his less-than enthusiastic support of the housing bailout, his own profession of ignorance on economic matters and ample connections to Big Oil.

Race and class issues are probably sapping Obama’s support. But he’s also been hurt by nagging questions about his leadership experience as the GOP tries to shift the election from a referendum on Republican economic policies to a test of whether Obama is up to the job of president.

“The two immoveable objects in this campaign are that Bush takes the blame for the economy and that the economy favors the Democrats,” says Michael Dimock, associate director of the Pew Research Center. “But it’s now coming down to the question of Obama’s leadership and capability . . . . McCain doesn’t have to win on the economy, just mitigate its impact, and reframe the issue as one about leadership.”

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Added a Democratic pollster: “Don’t look at the unemployment rate. The key metric is the percentage of voters who think Obama is ready to lead. So far, that’s been around 50 to 58 percent. If that number stabilizes in the mid-50s, he’ll win.”

Then there’s the “bitter” pill. The Illinois senator spent his teen years on Food Stamps, but he’s had real trouble making white blue-collar Democrats believe that he feels their pain. And Republicans aren’t letting voters forget his claim that working-class voters are so “bitter” they cling to God and guns.

2. Has Palin Peaked?

Sarah Palin’s addition to the ticket probably exceeded her running mate’s wildest expectations: McCain has turned an eight-point deficit in the Gallup daily tracking poll into a three-point lead.

But McCain’s campaign has so far been able to protect Palin from any downside. Palin appeared before adoring crowds in the lower 48 last week, but she did so with the help of TelePrompters and under the protection of a journalist no-fly zone. On Sunday, the McCain campaign – facing increasing pressure — announced that Palin would have a sit-down with ABC’s Charlie Gibson.

How will the Alaska governor hold up under a grilling about the future of NATO, the mortgage securitization crisis or Troopergate? Joe Lieberman is reportedly giving her a rushed tutorial on foreign policy, but the potential for embarrassment remains significant despite Palin’s poise, sense of humor and innate smarts.

Some GOP analysts fret that her popularity has nowhere to go but down, as moderate women become more familiar with her staunch anti-abortion stance. And some are concerned that the conservative evangelicals who make up the party’s base — so jazzed by Palin’s selection — could sink back into a funk when they remember that Palin was just an appetizer while McCain remains the main course.

Readers' Comments (3405)

Well we do have a lot of things to look at now. We can look at McCain's 3% point lead on Gallup at 48% to 45%. We can look at Zogby's poll that has McCain up by 4% now at 50% to 46%. Or we can look at the new USA Today poll that has McCain leading The Emperor Without Clothes and his plagiarism running mate Biden by 10% to now 54% to 44%. Stunning polls huh?

Obama's position continues to erode since his "power base", our liberal MSM wolfpack press, has come under attack by millions of Americans that are "done" with America's corrupt "Mass Liberal Media". America's most corrupt institution is clearly under attack which it should be. Because how in the hell in 2008 can a candidate without any experience, shown poor judgement over and over and over again, has no leadership experience, possibly get to within a heartbeat of POTUS if not from brainwashing propaganda from the "Mass Media"? A huge Social Injustice on the American people...........sad.

Lastly the Emperor Without Clothes has FINALLY conceded that the SURGE worked beyond our wildest dreams. That according to an interview done by O'Reilly last week. I would have thought that that admission would have been the topic of many stories here on Politico. But I don't believe I have seen even one..................strange or somethiong else? You decide...............................McCain / Palin is the right ticket for ALL Americans on November 4th, 2008.

7% + 4% is an 11% bounce. Way above the standard deviation probabiltiy for error. The trend is going to be up from here on out. There may be dips along the way, but the trend is going to be up. A hero vs a zero. That's what this race has come down to.

The drive-by media sacrificed any credibility it had by descending on Governor Palin like a flock of vultures.all

From perpetuating lies about the Governor to attacking her husband and children, they left no doubt in the minds of Americans that they are truly "in the tank" for Obama and the far left wing of the Democrat party.

In the days remaining before the election, it will be neither party or candidate that will be seeking legitimacy from the voters; it will be the entities reporting on the process.

Pollwatcher.......the so-called press can't be trusted. Haven't you heard? The Democrats MAIN "power supply" the liberal wolfpack press can't be trusted. That according to the majority of the American people. Where are we all wrong?

Stop lying. Palin was not McCain's pick. His pick was Lieberman. The unvetted Alaskan extremist was foisted on McCain by the extreme right of the GOP and such unblemished characters as Karl Rove. Remember when you post your propaganda, the truth merchants are watching.

You are wrong.Her beliefs are looney right wing extremist as more and more people are finding out. No wonder she is hiding from the scrutiny of the media. Middle America does not like:

What do you know or care about Middle America? You have chosen to live in Australia.all

Sarah Palin's approval rating as Governor of Alaska is over 80%. It's absurd to believe all those people have been fooled and you, sitting on your tuchis in Australia, have ferreted out all there is to know about Sarah Palin.

It's patently obvious that you are just parroting a litany of left wing whacko talking points from your perch "down under".

Friedman on ‘drill, drill, drill’: It’s like someone chanting ‘IBM Selectric typewriters’ during the IT revolution.

On NBC’s Meet The Press this morning, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman criticized the chanting of “drill, drill, drill” and “drill, baby, drill” at the Republican National Convention last week, saying that’s just what Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela and Nigeria want to hear Americans focusing on. “They’d be up there leading the chant. They would be saying, ‘this is great, America isn’t sitting there saying, invent, invent, invent new renewable energy,’” said Friedman. Friedman added that he isn’t opposed to offshore drilling, but we shouldn’t be “making that the center focus”:

FRIEDMAN: I’m actually not against drilling. What I’m against is making that the center of our focus because we are on the eve of a new revolution, the energy technology revolution. It would be, Tom, as if on the eve of the IT revolution, the revolution of PCs and the internet, someone was up there standing and demanding, “IBM Selectric typewriters, IBM Selectric typewriters.” That’s what “drill, drill, drill” is the equivalent of today.

Pollwatcher.......the so-called press can't be trusted. Haven't you heard? The Democrats MAIN "power supply" the liberal wolfpack press can't be trusted. That according to the majority of the American people. Where are we all wrong?

I can't comment on the specifics of the American press as I currently reside in Australia where there are also issues with the media.

The point is, that when someone is running for public office, the public have a right to know all about them. This often involves the blowtorch of the media. If the person is sure of their policies and positions they should not be concerned. Avoiding the media is not acceptable. Palin should face the music and try and justify her positions.

A bank with ties to the family of John McCain was shut down by federal regulators on Friday, marking the 11th US bank failure this year and threatening to cause ripples across the presidential election campaign.

Andrew McCain, son of the Republican presidential nominee, was a director of Nevada-based Silver State Bank until resigning in July for “personal reasons”.

He was a member of Silver State’s audit committee, which has responsibility for overseeing the bank’s financial accounts.

Silver State was heavily exposed to construction and land development loans that have come under pressure as the housing market slumps.

Much of the bank’s business was concentrated in Las Vegas and other western cities that have suffered some of the sharpest falls in land prices after years of rapid growth and heavy speculation.

Silver State had about $2bn of assets and $1.7bn in deposits at the end of June and reported a second-quarter net loss of $72.3m.

Its failure is expected to cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which insures bank deposits up to $100,000, about $450m-$550m.