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Auto alternatives for the 21st centuryFri, 09 Dec 2016 20:46:09 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.48 Nations Following Paris Climate Change Agreement Commit To Cut CO2http://www.hybridcars.com/8-nations-following-paris-climate-change-agreement-commit-to-cut-co2/
http://www.hybridcars.com/8-nations-following-paris-climate-change-agreement-commit-to-cut-co2/#commentsThu, 01 Dec 2016 03:17:43 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=525834The world is running against a climate-change deadline and governments are making commitments to do something about it. Among many regulatory actions affecting the kinds of cars we drive – and will drive in years to come – various efforts are being made by agencies to themselves practice what is being mandated. On that note, […]

Their actions follow resolutions made in the Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Call to Action at COP21 during the Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) Transport Focus.

This specifies at least 20 percent of all road transport vehicles globally should be plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles or hydrogen fuel cell by 2030 – if warming is to be limited to 2°C or less.

And that temperature rise threshold is the all-important one with predictions of coastlines and even whole islands threatened with flooding in a worse-case scenario.

Actions following the Paris Accord, says the CEM, are to curb worldwide average temperature to well below 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels.

The CEM says transportation sector greenhouse-gases emissions are otherwise anticipated to rise from today’s levels by nearly 20 percent by 2030 and close to 50 percent by 2050 unless major action is undertaken.

Ambitious goals include helping to facilitate the global deployment of 20 million plug-in hybrid, all-electric, and fuel cell vehicles by 2020 over the less than 2 million on the road today.

Following are takeaways from the various nations signed onto the Clean Energy Ministerial’s Electric Vehicles Initiative while they also encourge others to follow their lead.

Canada

The nation of Canada, whose car market is about a tenth the size of the U.S., had signed onto the COP21 along with 195 countries in December 2015.

Saying “leadership starts with government itself” Canada calls for reducing emissions from government operations by 40 percent by 2030 based on 2005 levels, while attempting to meet this goal as soon as 2025.

“The federal government will use cleaner energy and become more energy efficient across many areas — from buildings, to transportation, to buying more sustainable products,” says Canada’s representatives.

China

In 2014, the Chinese government promulgated the Implementation Plan for the Purchase of New Energy Vehicles by Government Organs and Public Institutions.

These accounted from 2014-2016 for at least 30 percent of annual new vehicles purchased by government departments, government organs and public institutions at the level of central government and this is mandated to increase.

The Implementation Plan further requires a minimum procurement by municipal and regional government organs and public institutions, and these too are on the rise.

France

The French State and its public bodies say when renewing their fleets they are committed to a minimum of 50-percent low CO2 emissions vehicles, mainly including BEVs and PHEVs. Local authorities in turn are required to at least 20 percent of the same.

This follows France’s adoption in 2015 of the Energy Transition for the Green Growth Act.

“This is expected to result in 5,000 low emission vehicles per year for the central government and its public bodies and 4,000 low emission vehicles per year for local authorities from 1st January 2017,” says France’s representatives.

Japan

By 2030, Japan says all government vehicles will be next-generation vehicles, except for where no alternative next-generation vehicles exist.

This action follows the Japanese Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures Related to Government Affairs

By 2020, the nation has the intermediate goal that approximately 40 percent of fleet – close to 9,000 vehicles out of 22,600 – will be composed of next-generation vehicles.

“This means that most of the governmental vehicles scheduled for renewal will need to be next-generation vehicles from now to 2020,” says Japan’s representatives.

In all, Japan calls for the increase to one million the total stock of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by its Road Map for the Dissemination of Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles

Norway

Much smaller than other nations involved, Norway represents an outsized proportion of commitment. Under ther Paris Agreement, it committed to 40 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.

Its National Transport plan for 2018-2029 is being readied for Spring 2017, and meanwhile it was the fourth nation to buy 100,000 plug-in electrified vehicles.

Measures that contributed to this in a nation of just 5.1 million include numerous economic and other incentives. Plug-in electrified vehicles have no sales tax, no VAT, and reduced annual fee and reduced benefit tax for electric cars used as company cars.

Further, electrified vehicles may travel free on toll roads, and enjoy access to public transport lanes and free passage on ferries connecting national roads.

Sweden

“The Swedish government has announced that Sweden will be one of the world’s first fossil- free welfare nations, and that in the long term our energy system will be based on 100 percent renewable energy,” says its representatives.

As such, it has launched government fleet incentives, including that agencies are forced to consider the environmental aspect in the procurement of vehicles, by purchasing electric vehicles or by using biofuels.

Also, electric buses recently received a subsidy program.

United Kingdom

By 2050, the UK has committed to having almost all cars and vans be zero emission, with over £600 million ($751 million) to be expended during 2015-2020 to support this.

The Office for Low Emission Vehicles has a number of programs aimed at supporting the UK public sector in the uptake of ULEVs.

Also, a £5 million ($6.26 million) public ULEV readiness program is to bring 300 vehicles into the public fleet and support installation of recharging infrastructure.

A number of other inititives with money allocated are in place to see ULEVs in cities and sectors. To date 1,000 charge points have been government paid for.

Also in the works are fuel cell vehicles under the Hydrogen for Transport Advancement Programme (HyTAP), and £11 million program which is trialing 30 fuel cell electric vehicles in use by public sector bodies

United States of America

Will some of this be overturned? That is unclear with the Trump administration which has called man-made climate change “nonsense.”

As things stand, in 2015 the Obama Administration saw aggressive targets set to reduce its federal greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent by 2025 and acquire 20 percent of all new passenger vehicles as zero emission (ZEV) or plug-in hybrid by 2020 and 50 percent by 2025.

The federal government has also partnered with state and local governments to make public commitments to fleet electrification.

Such collaboration is expected to aggregate demand and reduce purchase costs, while promoting electrified vehicle innovation and adoption and expand national electric vehicle infrastructure.

“Twenty-four state and local governments have joined the federal government to electrify our fleets,” says the U.S. reprentatives “These new commitments account for over 2,500 new electric vehicles in 2017 alone and help pave a path for a sustained level of purchases into the future.

“This builds upon prior commitment and action by forward leaning states and cities that have and continue to pursue fleet electrification.”

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/8-nations-following-paris-climate-change-agreement-commit-to-cut-co2/feed/0The Netherlands Becomes Sixth Country To Buy 100,000 Plug-in Vehicleshttp://www.hybridcars.com/the-netherlands-becomes-sixth-country-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/
http://www.hybridcars.com/the-netherlands-becomes-sixth-country-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/#commentsThu, 17 Nov 2016 16:15:59 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=521009This month the Netherlands became the sixth country to buy its 100,000th plug-in electrified passenger vehicle. The progressive nation of 17 million people recorded 99,945 units through October, and given its 800-1,500 monthly rate of plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicle sales, has by now crossed the milestone. A favorite market of Tesla – almost half […]

]]>This month the Netherlands became the sixth country to buy its 100,000th plug-in electrified passenger vehicle.

The progressive nation of 17 million people recorded 99,945 units through October, and given its 800-1,500 monthly rate of plug-in hybrid and all-electric vehicle sales, has by now crossed the milestone.

A favorite market of Tesla – almost half the EVs purchased there are by the California automaker – the Netherlands otherwise has a decided preference for plug-in hybrids.

The cumulative count through October is 86.2 percent gas-electric cars comprised of 86,162 range-extended and plug-in hybrid vehicles, 12,196 all-electric vehicles, and 1,587 all-electric light-duty vans. Counting all types of plug-ins, a total of 101,444 vehicles are on Dutch roads.

The outsized proportion of plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs is quite the distinction from other markets including Norway which overwhelmingly prefers pure electric cars.

A Sales Peak, Then Slowing

The Netherlands has seen its enthusiastic purchasers rank it as high as number one in the European PEV market. This was in 2015 when it registered 43,971 light-duty plug-in vehicles for a market share of 9.7 percent. That was second only to Norway which saw 22.4 percent sales that year, and which is now over 25 percent.

That 44 percent of this month’s milestone was a blistering pace, but it was artificially stimulated as consumers rushed in the last two months of the year to take advantage of generous government incentives that were ending.

Now with lighter incentives still in place, the plug-in market share is a still-respectable 3.4 percent of new car sales.

For the first 10 months of this year, 10,827 plug-in cars were sold plus 127 electric vans.

Goal Setting

Late last decade, the Dutch government set the objective to have 15,000-20,000 plug-in electrified vehicles with three or more wheels on the road by 2015.

Actually, it’s just one of several more plug-in cars Europeans get that the U.S. does not.

Adding to the list of cars that buyers in the U.S. would like to have, but has been denied to date, is the Volvo V60 Plug-in Hybrid, ranked second at 15,015.

Another desirable but unavailable to the U.S. car, the VW Golf GTE plug-in hybrid is third place with 9,710.

The fourth best-seller is at last a car Americans can buy – indeed they are made here – and this is the Tesla Model S, with 5,681 cumulative sales. The Model X to date accounts for 250 sales, and the two EVs comprise 48.6 percent of the 12,196 EVs sold to date.

Fifth place goes to the Audi A3 e-tron with 5,227 units, and sixth is the Mercedes-Benz C350e, with 5,092.

Sixth To Buy 100,000

The Netherlands was on pace to hit 100,000 sooner, but the reduction in incentives saw it slow its pace, and Norway and France hit the mark sooner this year.

Other countries that have crossed 100,000 are the United States, China, and Japan. And, if California were considered its own country, it would be in the club also, as it is celebrating 250,000 this month.

As it is, the Netherlands has still a healthy uptake per capita and on a market percentage basis, and remains one of the strongest plug-in markets in the world.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/the-netherlands-becomes-sixth-country-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/feed/0California Celebrates One-Quarter Million Plug-in Cars Soldhttp://www.hybridcars.com/california-celebrates-one-quarter-million-plug-in-cars-sold/
http://www.hybridcars.com/california-celebrates-one-quarter-million-plug-in-cars-sold/#commentsMon, 14 Nov 2016 18:00:46 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=518441Announced a couple weeks early to coincide with this week’s start of the LA Auto Show, Californians are celebrating the 250,000th plug-in electrified vehicle sold in state. As a representative at the epicenter of the plug-in car movement, the California Plug-in Electric Vehicle Collaborative projects more than a quarter million PEVs will have been sold […]

The PEVC – using data acquired from HybridCars.com – is also celebrating a broadening market with many more units sold, and new longer-range, and more exciting models coming along.

“Just a few years ago, you could count the number of plug-in models on one hand. Times have changed,” said PEV Collaborative Executive Director Christine Kehoe. “Today, anyone thinking about buying a car can check out more than 30 electric models. And with federal and state rebates, they are more affordable than ever.”

The HybridCars.com Dashboard presently counts 26 plug-in cars – 14 plug-in hybrids, including the discontinued Cadillac ELR, and 12 battery electric cars. If one breaks out sub models – like the BMW i3 and i3 REX, etc. – and includes maybe a fringe model or two, then the count can arguably be over 30.

In any event, the market is growing, and as we speak the first over 200-mile range EV priced with subsidies under $30,000 – the Chevy Bolt – is being launched in California and Oregon, and is due to roll out in the rest of the country beginning early next year.

PEV Central

California is a very unique market from a global perspective that since 2010 has all by itself consumed 46 percent of all PEVs sold in the U.S.

The U.S., counting sales back to 2008, has purchased 532,754 PEVs through October 2016. Of these 119,748 were purchased just in the last 10 months from January through October.

During the last half of 2016, California has accounted for 49.7 percent of all PEV sales, has seen as high as 55 percent of U.S. market share, and why is this, you may ask?

Is it because California consumers are just so much more progressive than all others in the U.S.?

While some may argue yes, more potent stimulus comes down to the policies and realities that stoke both supply and demand.

California is the one state that has legal right to make zero-emission rules alongside the U.S. EPA, and they are actually more aggressive, and weighted to incentivizing and encouraging automakers to sell electrified cars, including fuel cell vehicles.

“Along with growing consumer demand, California’s clean car programs are credited with helping spur electric vehicle innovation and have encouraged automakers to invest in next-generation electric car technology,” said the PEVC today in a statement.

That’s a benign way of saying California swings a heavy stick and is ready to penalize carmakers who do not sell in state. California is known therefore for what are called “compliance cars” that comply with California ZEV rules.

As the Union of Concerned Scientists has shown in its Electrifying the Vehicle Market report, California gets all the best PEVs – more variety and quantity – than any other state.

Other states that follow California’s ZEV rules also have policies in place offering rebates to consumers that add to federal consumer tax credits nationally available, but it is California that is the epicenter.

Only the nation of China has more plug-in cars on the road, as that also-policy driven country has been catching up fast since 2014.

Source: UCS.

As you’d thus expect, on a market-share basis, California basically crushes the rest of the country. The percentage of PEV sales in the 17.5-million passenger vehicle U.S. market is a slim 0.8 percent more or less.

California last year has exceeded this by nearly five times statewide, and hot spots in California are far above the lower 3 percent state average.

Number one is San Jose, which has bought 9.4 percent plug ins. This is followed by Santa Cruz with 5.8 percent, San Francisco with 5.3 percent, and Eureka at 4.8 percent.

The only place on the world map that beats these uptake percentages is Norway – itself an outlier, and which buys 25 percent PEVs in its tiny market of 5.1 million people.

In the U.S., only Boulder Colo. gets close with 3.2 percent PEV sales.

Source: UCS.

Such realities – that include greater proliferation and public spending on charging infrastructure and car manufacturers and dealers on board with the agenda – are the dismay of PEV advocates in other parts of the country.

For example, in the Northeast, where many consumers are in tune with the environmental and oil-reducing advantages of plug-in cars, supply is less, and carmakers – driven by regulations – have been slower to market and supply PEVs.

The flip-side to California getting the lion’s share, and other states being in the have-nots index is that if California had not pushed carmakers as hard as it did, others would be much less likely to have as many PEVs, if any.

The most anticipated product yet to come – 2018 Model 3. Around 400,000 reservation holders have a place in line for the projected $35,000 and up car with 215 or more miles range.

The U.S. EPA, though being fought now by automakers who say its rules are too tough, has made it possible for them to meet emission and mpg regs through 2025 with just 1-3 percent PEVs.

Mainstream media may misleadingly report that 2025 federal rules dictate nearly 55 mpg, but that is not what will be on window stickers. Window sticker values may be between 37-40 mpg on average under 2025 federal rules – up from mid 20s mpg today.

And meanwhile, the push continues in California, which before 2050 wants 100 percent zero emission vehicles, today leads the way, and momentum has continued despite setbacks.

In November, California did cut back its consumer incentive program to exclude high income families, and earlier this year “green stickers” allowing solo HOV access for plug-in hybrid owners was temporarily halted, but a fire has otherwise been lit.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/california-celebrates-one-quarter-million-plug-in-cars-sold/feed/0What’s With All the Startup Plug-in Car Companies These Days?http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-with-all-the-startup-plug-in-car-companies-these-days/
http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-with-all-the-startup-plug-in-car-companies-these-days/#commentsWed, 26 Oct 2016 20:37:43 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=511378Going against irony and long odds, there are presently at least eight startup companies trying to secure ground-floor footing within the nascent U.S. plug-in car market. If not immediately obvious, that’s a lot of companies who’ve decided to reach for what could be but a needle-in-a-haystack opportunity against now-waking-up incumbent automakers flush with cash and […]

]]>Going against irony and long odds, there are presently at least eight startup companies trying to secure ground-floor footing within the nascent U.S. plug-in car market.

If not immediately obvious, that’s a lot of companies who’ve decided to reach for what could be but a needle-in-a-haystack opportunity against now-waking-up incumbent automakers flush with cash and decades of knowhow.

There are presently 34 brands selling vehicles in the U.S. light duty market, and to have at least a quarter as many trying to join them is reminiscent of the early wild west days of the first beginnings of the car industry.

Today the public more often hears of that most conspicuous startup – Tesla Motors – which for over a decade has plowed ground toward becoming the first to make it big since Chrysler did 80 years ago.

And while pundits and investors have a field day postulating the yet-unprofitable (last quarter excepted) California electric carmaker’s chances, a virtual crowd of other wanna bes are also taking the chance – with much less now to show, but often no less brash.

Names of some of the bigger ones include Faraday Future, Lucid (just renamed from Atieva), Fisker Automotive, and NextEV. Others smaller on the radar include the new Fisker run by its actual namesake, Sondors, ZAP/Jonway, and Green Tech Automotive.

Irony and Odds

An often overlooked fact is these companies are all fighting to win what today is still a very small prize. That is, they’ve been motivated to chase the teeny tiny all-electric and/or plug-in hybrid market which represents but 0.83 percent of total U.S. passenger vehicle sales.

Faraday Future’s Variable Platform Architecture is hoped to speed development of advanced cars we can buy, other than the batmobile design exercise pictured top.

On the face of it, one might wonder whether it would be easier to break into building simple eco cars, crossovers, or SUVs with gas engines – the types of vehicle that today sell in much higher volumes and garner much more profit.

As it is, the start-up-backing billionaires, venture capitalists and government funding agencies feel more confident wedging out a place in the plug in market. This is so, even though the car business is exceedingly tough to crack into, and today’s major automakers are still losing money on plug-ins, despite experience and other advantages.

What is it about electric cars that foments such apparent madness to give it a go in a new, still unproven industry?

Common Hope

Each startup has its own story and business plan hoped to justify the effort, and while plug-ins are a sub-set of the whole car market, they’re viewed as “the future,” thus a new frontier so a gold mining spirit can become infectious.

From that vantage, the playing field is arguably more level than making a suicidal attempt to try to build a better pickup than Ford’s F-150, or out-engineer Honda’s Accord, for example.

Buying time is the fact that even the majors are only now getting underway. Since 2011 most have sold only tens of thousands of units – if not less, or if any at all. That’s not much when best sellers sell on the order of 20,000-40,000 in a month, in what is today a 17.5 million vehicle annual market.

Automakers are now in the EV game, and do represent a growing threat to newcomers. To date marketing of vehicles like the Chevy Volt has kept its footprint dainty next to bread and butter vehicles like the Chevy Cruze, and various trucks and SUVs.

The biggest plug-in sellers are the Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, and Tesla Model S, which may sell a couple thousand units more or less monthly, and volumes are much less for other plug-in models.

What’s more, legacy automakers haven’t until now threatened to bear their full weight toward switching to electrification. Regulations are the core market driver, and legacy makers indicate if it were not for that electric cattle prod, they’d do much less, if not altogether quit proffering plug-ins.

Behind green-car-hugging facades, major carmakers have shown themselves about as keen on plug-ins as a kid being dragged by the ear to a scrubbing. They make more money in conventional cars, have established their brands with them, and selling plug-ins may even be tinged with conflicts of interest, as Tesla’s Elon Musk has said.

Brands the Auto Alliance represents. The U.S. EPA has already said only 1-3 percent plug-ins are needed to meet 2025 emission targets. If the intent was to splice in many more plug-ins, fleet averages would go up, and the goal would be that much easier.

As we speak, the industry’s lobby arm – the Auto Alliance – is creating case studies and statistics trying to weaken federal 2022-2025 emission regulations. The Alliance, representing a dozen major manufacturers, is saying to regulators and legislators the rules will cost upwards of a million jobs in coming years, cost too much, and too few will buy over engineered green cars.

Aside from the U.S., the push for electrification is global. Europe is now waking up with all the majors pushing to convert sales to as much as 25 percent plug-in by 2025 – a very dramatic turn of events, if it happens as projected, and much greater competition for would-be Tesla followers.

And meanwhile, plug-in startups have a clean slate and no legacy baggage. Like Tesla, they can focus on a new technology, and not be hindered by so many very expensive ties to a former technology, along with longing glances backwards, and digging in of heels to slow what they consider pure progress.

Michigan-based automotive analyst Alan Baum also notes regulatory and funding advantages exist for what may become globally selling companies.

For starters, plug-ins are a shoe-in to pass emissions tests. And whether a good thing, or “boondoggle” as others allege, Tesla has banked hundreds of millions selling California green credits to its competitors, and others stand to eventually do the same.

Further, federal, and in cases state and local tax credits or rebates are in place for plug-in customers, and the companies themselves may take advantage of low interest loans or grants suported by policymakers to spur the industry.

Common Hype

The formula for a few of the startups today has been to go big or go home. Brash hyperventilation touting cool new imagery, are attempts to position them as having fresher, smarter ideas than those of stodgy old companies.

But as true of the Wizard of Oz, who said “don’t look at that man behind the curtain,” aside from gee-whiz designs and trendy posturing, most startups have proven nothing in that most fundamental way – delivering satisfying vehicles, and making happy customers.

The sober minded might see a red flag here, and any venture capitalist who does not consider this is not worth his/her salt, but that has not prevented several unproven newcomers from garnering many millions, if not over a billion in initial funding.

Baum also observes that budding technology fields have seen new blood come in before and outfox the slow-moving, out-of-touch old guard. IBM, for example, forfeited a home court advantage to the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Dell, and others.

Investors looking for a payback are betting big, taking risks that they may lose a few bets, but getting in on the ground floor of the next Apple of the car world is quite the allure, as evidenced by the bloated market cap of TSLA.

Car Company/Tech Company

Just as true however, is while electric cars share hardware and mindshare with computers, they are automobiles.

Even institutional investors can be fuzzy on this, as has been seen in discussing and defining Tesla – automobile company or technology company? – but they shouldn’t be.

Without a doubt, if a company manufactures motor vehicles – even if propelled by a lithium-ion batteries and motors, nuclear fusion, or a Flux Capacitor – it’s by definition a car company even if, like Tesla, it has a broader technological portfolio.

Tesla is diversified in energy storage and now solar. Others are working toward mobility services, autonomous tech, serving as a supplier to others, as well as plain old (new) electric cars.

Challenges still faced therefore include walking through the same gauntlet all the majors face in direct proportion to the intended volume to which a Johnny Come Lately aspires.

Unavoidable challenges – any one of which can be fatal to a cash-strapped organization – include designing and engineering vehicles to meet strict safety standards, while providing quality design, execution, customer management, sales, marketing, and all at a profit.

Hoops beyond these, Baum observes include supplier relations, plant engineering, other “hands-on things” amongst a gazillion details that eat money like few other businesses, and which carry huge liabilities besides.

If a given automotive startup intends to become more than a boutique brand, this is what it faces. This said, while hype thicker than a New England fog has escaped the lips of some startups, none have shown they are executing quite so defined a master plan as Tesla has, as it aims for a million units in 2020.

Tesla Model 3. To start at $35,000, offer upwards of 215 mile range, and around 400,000 pre-orders have been reported.

If any of the startups want to really follow Tesla, they have much more to show, said Baum.

“It’s not good enough to have one car, you have to have a series of cars,” said Baum. “In other words, when you finally get your first car made, you better have your second car ready to go within a couple of years to at the very least improve the current product.”

“And of course that’s what Tesla is trying to do, they started with the Roadster, and went to the Model S [and Model X],” Baum continued. “Now they’re going to the Model 3. You need that, unless you want to be making a 100 cars a year at $500,000 a pop. If that’s what you want to do, OK, I guess you can do that.”

The jury however is still out even on Tesla, said Baum, and the startups – some so secretive as to have been accused of “vaporware” by a jaded public, will sooner or later have to prove their market value.

Meanwhile on they go, yet setting the stage. Following are a few of the bigger ones.

Faraday Future

Not at all humble, Faraday Future has basically said it is the next big thing.

“You don’t need a 100-year legacy in the automotive industry to define what the next generation of transportation needs to look and feel like,” said Senior VP Nick Sampson in 2015.

Even Tesla was not considered so special by Sampson who noted it took over a decade to get where it is, and then-18-month-old Faraday was hiring faster than Tesla was when it was one-and-a-half-years old, and Faraday was positioned as not in danger of going bankrupt.

Proposed factory.

Backed by Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting who in his home market is also developing LeEco, Faraday has broken ground in Nevada on what it says is a $1 billion factory. Promised next is revelation of its first pre-production car – thought to be an electric autonomous crossover – at CES 2017 in Las Vegas.

This year at CES Faraday showed a supercar concept that never was shown driving except by computer animation but claimed to be good for 200 mph.

But Faraday is not being dismissed despite the over the top self praise.

As of early this year it had 750 employees, and is hiring from companies like SpaceX, Apple, Ford, Ferrari, Lotus, Jaguar, Tesla, GM, the U.S. government, and elsewhere.

The latest news is it was late to make a $21 million factory construction payment due last month.

The contractor threatened to stop working, but Faraday and the contractor, have otherwise said they are working out what has led observers to otherwise muse whether it is not as deep pocketed as claimed.

Being privately held, Faraday does not release its finances, but said “the business relationship between AECOM [contractor] and FF is strong, and we remain committed to building our factory in N. Las Vegas.”

Karma Automotive

Also nabbing battery supplier A123 Systems at deep discount, both those federally backed startups failed due to mismanagement, giving fodder for Mitt Romney in 2012, but the new Chinese owner is otherwise making a go of the new opportunity.

In May 2014, Lu Guanqiu, the chairman and founder of Wanxiang Group Corp. – himself worth an estimated $3.1 billion, said he was determined.

“I’ll put every cent that Wanxiang earns into making electric vehicles,” he said at the time of a dream he has held for years. “I’ll burn as much cash as it takes to succeed, or until Wanxiang goes bust.”

It was also approved by California to begin testing autonomous vehicles. Its ties are to the home market however, where it is most focused, and in April announced a ¥3 billion ($444 million) investment in its Nanjing High-Performance Motor Plant.

“The plant will have a production capacity annual output of 280,000 units when it goes into operation in the second half of this year, and we will focus on NextEV’s proprietary intellectual technologies such as our world class motors and electronic modules, for the first phase,” NextEV Co-founder & EVP, XPT CEO Jack Cheng said.

In the background, but not forgotten is GreenTech Automotive, backed by former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Terry McAuliffe.

Other names plowing along less conspicuously include crowdsourced startup Sondors, ZAP/Jonway, and GreenTech Automotive, among others – and it would be a fair guess to surmise others are yet in “stealth mode,” who we may hear of in time.

Planned is an EV with over 400 miles range, a new battery chemistry, and of less doubt will be Henrik’s signature swank design suitable for readers of the Robb Report, Dubai billionaires, and others with crème de la crème tastes.

Fisker has penned James Bond cars for BMW and Aston, and his original Karma is only being tweaked by Wanxiang, while former Chevy Volt protagonist Bob Lutz also wants to stuff these with Corvette engines.

For his encore, Fisker previewed his new car in teaser image, while teasing the potential being offered.

Fisker teaser.

“We have really been working in stealth mode,” Fisker said. “For the last two years I have been looking at battery technologies and wanted to see if there was something that could really give us a new paradigm. We had the strategy of developing the technology as fast as possible without getting tied down to a large organization, which would hold us back. Now we have the technology that nobody else has. And there is nobody even close to what we are doing out there.”

Jury Out

Those estimating startups with yet-vague plans as wanting to be the next Tesla may be missing the point in some cases.

Only a couple have said they may be shooting for something so ambitious, and while all are patting themselves on the back as is standard operating procedure in the current market climate, much is open ended.

“I am obviously skeptical of these operations, although the ones with staff and actual product plans deserve some notice,” said Baum. “It is interesting that in general even those are planning high cost low volume vehicles with mainstream products well off in the distance.”

And, as Baum noted, we have not seen even the equivalent of Tesla’s grand sweeping Master Plan which says it will start high, go downmarket, and become high volume, though some hint they may have this in mind.

Thus until more is divulged, all aspiring companies are receiving benefit of the doubt – while others still allege “vaporware” and dubious integrity – and each startup aims to confound these naysayers in time.

And so it goes in the new gold rush of the plug-in market, as it’s believed to be, and which is inspiring prospectors to set their claim and dig.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-with-all-the-startup-plug-in-car-companies-these-days/feed/0VW Settlement May Supercharge non-Tesla DC Rollout in UShttp://www.hybridcars.com/vw-settlement-may-supercharge-non-tesla-dc-rollout-in-us/
http://www.hybridcars.com/vw-settlement-may-supercharge-non-tesla-dc-rollout-in-us/#commentsThu, 20 Oct 2016 02:52:53 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=508674DC fast-charge-capable electric cars are already sold in the U.S., many more models are pending, and while advocates have uttered frustration that only Tesla has a nationwide network enabling long-distance driving, this state of affairs may soon be greatly relieved. And the irony is rich. Money from the former purveyors of diesels who once sought […]

]]>DC fast-charge-capable electric cars are already sold in the U.S., many more models are pending, and while advocates have uttered frustration that only Tesla has a nationwide network enabling long-distance driving, this state of affairs may soon be greatly relieved.

And the irony is rich. Money from the former purveyors of diesels who once sought to evade greater electrification may be the means to line the highways and byways of America with new charging infrastructure.

The funds would come via a court settlement over Volkswagen Group’s diesel emissions cheating, and the final approval, just days away, could bring big changes in as few as three years.

At a hearing Tuesday in a San Francisco U.S. District Court, Judge Charles Breyer said he is “strongly inclined to approve” by Oct. 25 a settlement against VW by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, California Air Resources Board, and private attorneys who filed a class-action suit.

Separate but closely-related cases filed by the Federal Trade Commission and VW dealers against their own brand are also on track to be settled quickly. The settlement with EPA and CARB could cost the company as much as $14.7 billion over a 10 year period.

ZEV Initiative

As VW’s engineers worked in their lab coats desperately devising ways to cheat on diesel emission tests they surely didn’t realize that they were actually paving the way for a future massive EV charging program.

One aspect of the new settlement is a Zero Emission Vehicle Initiative that requires Volkswagen to spend $2 billion over 10 years to plan, install, and maintain new ZEV charging-related technology. During each of four installments, VW must spend $500 million. By contrast, Tesla’s entire U.S. Supercharger network largely built since 2013 has likely cost less than $500 million to build.

Because of CARB’s role in the legal case against VW and its unique role in U.S. vehicle emission regulations, California is to receive and oversee 40 percent of these funds while EPA is to oversee the remaining 60 percent on behalf of the other states. In addition, the EPA’s part of the initiative requires between $25 and $50 million to be spent in each $300 million installment for public education and advocacy regarding zero emission vehicles for a total of at least $100 million over the 10 year period.

The national initiative will be overseen by EPA but VW has wide discretion in selecting, planning, and building the charging facilities. Prior to each 2.5 year installment VW must submit a plan to EPA that describes approximately what will be built along with estimated costs. The agency will then review the initial plan and meet with the company to provide feedback and suggestions. It will also review the proposed investments to ensure that they comply with the types of spending allowed by the ZEV Initiative settlement.

The California initiative may face somewhat closer scrutiny by CARB and can cover a somewhat wider selection of funding targets. For both investment plans VW must file annual reports on their progress. Public versions with proprietary information redacted will be made available online.

Fuel Cells Also Supported

The initiative framework assumes most funds will go toward ZEV charging infrastructure and this is defined to be either fuel cell vehicle fueling or electric vehicle charging. VW has been tracking fuel cell development but has been slower to bring a production vehicle to market than Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai.

The company plans to bring its first hydrogen fuel cell car to market as an Audi and has hinted it could use the same platform and even the same body as its 200-plus mile range 2018 e-tron Quattro EV although it has not given a launch date. It has, however, announced plans for a big corporate shift away from diesel and toward EVs.

VW recently announced its new Strategy 2025 plan under which it will have 30 battery electric vehicles in the market by 2025. The company estimates that as much as 25 percent of its production by 2025 may be plug-in vehicles which could represent two or three million units.

For EV charging, the company can choose a mix of DC stations or slower AC stations placed at workplaces, multi-unit residential buildings, or public locations such as along highway corridors. It does not appear that charging equipment can be given away to individual car buyers. The equipment cannot be installed at or near VW dealers. All work must be brand-neutral.

Audi’s Plan

In a recent ClimateWire article , Wayne Killen from VW’s Audi brand was quoted as revealing plans to install 175 DC fast chargers using Tesla’s Supercharger network as a model. “This is not a chicken-or-egg proposition,” said Killen, an electric vehicle architect at Audi. “The charging network has to come first, or there has to be awareness that it is being built, for someone to buy a long-range electric vehicle.”

According to the article, “Killen has been tasked with forming a partnership of automakers to install 175 new chargers nationwide before Audi’s e-tron Quattro makes its debut in 2018. Killen says he wants to emulate Tesla’s model of installing chargers”.

Killen told ClimateWire he wants to install these chargers “not just where electric vehicles are and drive,” but across the country. Under the terms of the new settlement, VW cannot use the funds as part of a partnership but must perform and manage the work entirely by itself perhaps to simplify accountability.

In Mitigation We Trust

In addition to the huge ZEV Initiative, a separate part of the settlement calls for a $2.7 billion Environmental Mitigation Trust which VW must fund in three consecutive yearly payments of $900 million. Unlike the ZEV Initiative, which is managed and largely controlled by VW, the EMT will be managed by a trustee chosen by the EPA.

The trust fund will provide grants to state and local governments as well as recognized Native American tribal governments to replace older diesel engines with cleaner engines or electric motors. The stated goal is to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions to compensate for the NOx emissions from VW’s nearly 500,000 diesel 2.0L engines that violated EPA emission limits.

There are nine pre-approved categories for EMT spending that include replacing older diesel engines in school and transit busses, large trucks, tugboats, and railroad engines used in ports for loading or unloading shipping containers from railcars.

Grants from the fund often cover just part of the upgrade cost. Switching from older diesel to electric motors results in the highest percentage funding match and it can reach 100 percent in some cases.

The emphasis is on reducing NOx emissions in urban areas where they contribute to smog formation and act as a lung irritant to local workers, residents, and children being driven to school. Additionally, up to 15 percent of the EMT funds can be used for EV charging intended for passenger cars and light trucks.

Between the ZEV Initiative and the EMT, as much as $2.3 billion will be available for ZEV charging. Funds can be spent for planning, installation, charging equipment, and maintenance however no funds can be spent to provide free electricity or hydrogen itself.

DC Charging Standards

The equipment must support only “non-proprietary” plug designs and must not be located at or near VW-related dealers. This presumably means the CHAdeMO and SAE CCS DC charging plugs used by most EV makers are allowed but Tesla’s unique plug design is not.

Although both major non-Tesla plug designs are allowed, not every station location needs to have equal numbers of plugs and VW is free to decide on the allocation as market trends evolve. The settlement also allows for new charging technology that may be adopted in the future.

The CHAdeMO and SAE CCS standards groups are on the verge of approving faster charging rates of up to 350 amps which could allow for nearly 150 kilowatt DC charging which would be competitive with Tesla’s existing Supercharger system. A future update expected before 2020 would further expand charging rates to a theoretical maximum of 350 kilowatts by allowing for twice the voltage (up to 1,000 volts). All versions of these updated standards are expected to be compatible and will continue to use the same existing physical plug design.

Typical Installation Costs

VW Group EVs.

A basic Tesla Supercharger location with four charging stalls has been variously estimated to cost between $250,000 and $500,000 dollars. Tesla itself has not provided cost details. The existing major national DC charging provider, EVgo, recently estimated that installing a site with four high-speed (100 kilowatt or 200A) DC chargers consistent with the VW settlement would cost approximately $400,000.

Using EVgo’s assumptions, Audi’s initial plan to build 175 DC charging locations would have cost about $70 million out of the first ZEV Initiative installment of $500 million. Clearly, there could be funds available for an even more ambitious buildout. The first funding installment with plans approved by EPA and CARB should begin in spring 2017 and end in late 2019.

ChargePoint, a major seller of Internet-connected EV charging equipment, objected to the proposed settlement saying in a court filing that the structure of the agreement gives VW too big of a role in the charging marketplace. The U.S. government responded that it did not think there would be a major disruption and that other markets opportunities outside of the ZEV Initiative remain open to ChargePoint and other EV equipment providers who supported their position.

The largest portion of the VW settlement, potentially $10 billion dollars, goes towards the repair or buyback of the nearly 500,000 cars with non-compliant emissions. Cars bought back by VW must be repaired before being resold or exported outside the U.S. The EPA expects the repair to reduce NOx emissions by 80 to 90 percent although they will likely remain above the levels that were originally intended to be met. Owners who sell their cars back to VW will be paid according to a standard formula based on the age of the vehicle.

Details of the settlement can be found at www.VWCourtSettlement.com. A separate legal case involving more than 80,000 3.0L cars with diesel engines is still being negotiated.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/vw-settlement-may-supercharge-non-tesla-dc-rollout-in-us/feed/0France Becomes Fifth Nation To Buy 100,000 Plug-in Vehicleshttp://www.hybridcars.com/france-becomes-fifth-nation-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/
http://www.hybridcars.com/france-becomes-fifth-nation-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/#commentsMon, 10 Oct 2016 15:51:42 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=504170Thanks to elegantly effective incentives and penalties rewarding electric cars, and charging high emitters, France has become the fifth nation to buy 100,000 plug-in electrified vehicles. The country that was home to last year’s landmark climate change accord has been on a roll, with its domestic press stretching to compare to Norway, which actually just […]

France also just took second place ahead of the Netherlands, and the ambition to push the percentage of zero-emission cars is growing along with the market.

Ségolène Royal, the country’s minister of environment, energy, and sea observed the landmark at the Paris Motor Show noting “the number of electric vehicles has tripled since 2014.”

“Electric vehicles” being encouraged in France – as is true in the U.S. and most major markets – include hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, but the 100,000 milestone does not count these which Royal otherwise said “must now be a priority.”

Royal announced at the motor show 100,000 had already been achieved, but counting the above vehicles registered from 2010 through September 2016, our tally is 99,239, and the 100,000 was otherwise almost certainly achieved last week.

At the present sales rate, a worst-case estimate would be 700 per week which would be enough for the total to have just crossed the 100,000 threshold.

Picking Up The Pace

During the first three quarters of 2016, plug-in electrified vehicle (PEV) registrations totaled just over 25,000 units. To date this year, an estimated approximate 30,000 new plug-in vehicles are on the road – Royal said 32,000 – and a more revealing statistic is the percentage of market share.

Attentive readers may have noticed by the totals adding to over 99,000 that the French by far prefer all-electric cars over plug-in hybrids, though this also correlates to incentives which are only one-sixth as much for PHEVs, as for EVs.

Nissan Leaf, and e-NV200.

Notable also is the French prefer French cars.

The best seller is thus the Renault Zoe – which for 2017 is getting a 41-kWh battery in addition to the pre-existing 22-kWh offering. This small EV has seen 30,098 cumulative sales through September.

Its cousin, the Kangoo Z.E. commercial van accounted for 15,032, and the other EV from the Renault-Nissan Alliance, the Nissan Leaf, has sold 8,979 for third place.

Until 2014 plug-in hybrid sales were negligible. In 2015, about 5,000 were sold compared to more than 20,000 pure EVs. This year through September, another 5,000 have been sold.

All-time top PHEV sellers are the VW Golf GTE with around 2,500 units, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV with nearly 2,000, Audi e-tron with more than 1,600. Models on the rise this year include the Volvo XC90 PHEV, and VW Passat GTE.

Bonus-Malus

Challenges remaining in France are similar to what we hear in other markets, including complaints about still-high costs, perceived payback period, “autonomy,” or range, and insufficient number of charging stations, but carrots and sticks are driving things forward.

One of the most tasty metaphorical carrots for PEV consumers is a 6,000 euro ($7,060) purchase bonus based on its environmental value. For plug-in hybrids emitting between 21-60 g/km, a 1,000 euro ($1,120) bonus is available.

These incentives are called bonuses as the French incentive program is called the “bonus-malus” system. The term “bonus” is self-explanatory, and “malus” is a penalty or fee.

No PEVs get the “malus” so what does? That would be perceived offenders. Want to drive a gas guzzler, with higher emissions? OK, that can cost a malus fee up to 8,000 euros ($8,960).

So, while the metaphorical carrots are attractive, the metaphorical stick is not just a passive prop to the hold carrots from a string; rather, it is a whip to make it cost extra for gas guzzlers – and diesels in France, meanwhile, are treated as public enemy number one.

That said, the incentive plan is elegant. Unlike other programs which must deprive the tax base, the bonus-malus system derives revenues from malus fees and turns them around to pay for the bonuses. As for those old diesels, these are weeded from French roads with a super bonus sweetening the deal.

Specifically, there is a 3,700 euro ($4,150) scrappage bonus for someone who ditches a 10-year-old or older diesel and buys a shiny new EV. For qualified plug-in hybrids, those who trade in a diesel of the same age requirements are eligible for an extra 2,500 euros ($2,800).

For reformed diesel owners, the total is thus up to 10,000 euros ($11,200) for EV buyers, and 3,500 euros ($3,920) for plug-in hybrid buyers.

At the Paris Motor Show, Royal cited the U.S. “dieselgate” metaphor for the global VW emissions scandal as a further “boost” to electric mobility industry.

“The electric car, the hydrogen car, it must now be a priority; manufacturers have to reduce prices and expand their range,” she said, praising the government’s actions to increase their scope.

With new vehicles including the German Opel Ampera-e, it may be something to keep track of whether nationalistic loyalties keep the now-186-mile real-world range Zoe atop the charts, or the new 240 or so mile larger GM product gains share.

Meanwhile, policymakers urge more is needed to combat emissions, and continue the switch toward electric vehicles.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/france-becomes-fifth-nation-to-buy-100000-plug-in-vehicles/feed/0What’s Really Motivating Automakers To Build Electric Cars?http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-really-motivating-automakers-to-build-electric-cars/
http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-really-motivating-automakers-to-build-electric-cars/#commentsWed, 05 Oct 2016 19:50:48 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=502242Today most major automakers say they’re eager to build electric cars, many have announced new models with more pending, but none would be doing this if they did not have to. To some observers this may be obvious, and to others just loosely aware of the facts and fancies surrounding the electrification of the automobile, […]

]]>Today most major automakers say they’re eager to build electric cars, many have announced new models with more pending, but none would be doing this if they did not have to.

To some observers this may be obvious, and to others just loosely aware of the facts and fancies surrounding the electrification of the automobile, factors driving automakers away from the internal combustion engine may be a bit less clear.

One could be forgiven for holding vague notions too, as talking points, sound bites, and even a tinge of greenwashing have filled media headlines, automakers’ statements, and other communications shaping the conversation. Complicating the mix have also been voices countering stated reasons for switching away from society’s monopoly energy source – petroleum.

Some of the bigger goals underlying automotive electrification include desires to curb climate change emissions, environmental heath concerns, the elusive perpetually on the horizon goal of “energy independence,” and sustainability.

These are indeed factors, but behind them all is the core reason, and this is greenhouse gas and mpg regulations in the U.S. and around the world.

Global regulations encompass all the other rationales we so often hear, and are forcing automakers to comply or pay – the worst form of pain for multinational corporations, and thus an effective prod.

If this seems overstated, imagine a world without regulations. It’s not going to happen, but think hypothetically for a minute. If all global emissions and mpg regulations were revoked, and a pure laissez faire economy let automakers do what seemed best to them, would they be as motivated to undermine their already established, profitable, and in many cases amortized internal combustion technology?

China’s Phase III light duty fuel consumption regulations includes first-ever standards for fleet average fuel consumption calling for reduction to 7 l/100km by 2015. This is a 13 percent improvement between 2008 and 2015. Phase IV standards are being developed. China is also threatened by conventional air quality pollutants. National annual average concentrations of coarse particulate matter (PM10) are at 98 µg/m3. This exceeds World Health Organization ambient air quality standards five-fold. China is the world’s largest EV market meaning carmakers must abide.

Michigan-based auto analyst Alan Baum thinks not, and cites regulations as the key catalyst driving the market forward. And, given that they are an ever-present reality and certainly not going away, Baum says automakers have embraced them, and are working within the system.

“The automakers, A) benefit, and B) actually support regulations that are consistent not just in one country, but across the globe,” said Baum because they can develop vehicles for all markets, and not have to follow a patchwork of conflicting laws. “The flip side is, if all regulations went away, would they be happy? Sure they would because then they could do what they want, but if there are going to be regulations, they want them to be consistent.”

Baum also notes the EV market in the United States is pushed more by California Air Resources Board (CARB) zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates than federal regulations.

Not a pure EV, but with 53 EPA-rated miles the Chevy Volt is most capable among gas-electic cars to serve as one day to day, while morphing to a hybrid when the battery runs out. As such, regulations afford it the same tax credit status as full EVs, and otherwise plug-in hybrids are a useful alternative to bridge the gap between gas and electric propulsion.

By contrast, U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) rules give greater leeway to internal combustion, and the EPA has said no more than 1-3 percent plug-in cars are required by 2025.

Not so in California, Baum said, which mandates one-in-seven by 2025.

“In the absence of CARB, timing for new electric cars might be 3 or 4 years later, and a lot of the vehicles would not appear at all,” said Baum. “The California ZEV has forced automakers to say ‘OK, we have to have the technology in place; we won’t have to execute it in volume very quickly, but we can’t just sit on our hands and see what happens.'”

So, while some may allege conspiracy theory, there is no conspiracy. The evidence is plain to see. Although automakers are proficient at developing and selling new vehicles in the 89-million annual global market, they are flexing their industrial muscles only as fast as needed to stay ahead of regulations, and in some cases are lagging behind, observed Baum.

We believe that more than 100 years after the invention of the internal combustion engine, incumbent automobile manufacturers are at a crossroads and face significant industry-wide challenges. The reliance on the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine as the principal automobile powertrain technology has raised environmental concerns, created dependence among industrialized and developing nations on oil largely imported from foreign nations and exposed consumers to volatile fuel prices. In addition, we believe the legacy investments made by incumbent automobile manufacturers in manufacturing and technology related to the internal combustion engine have to date inhibited rapid innovation in alternative fuel powertrain technologies. We believe these challenges offer a historic opportunity for companies with innovative electric powertrain technologies and that are unencumbered with legacy investments in the internal combustion engine to lead the next technological era of the automotive industry.

Push and Pull

The auto industry is one of the most regulated in existence as it is responsible for building millions of machines in which humans trust their lives and safety.

In playing the high stakes game writ large, industry lobbies have a history of pushing back against regulations. It was regulations and advocacy that forced against initial resistance innovations like 5 mph bumpers, three-point seatbelts, improved crumple zones in vehicle bodies, air bags, anti-lock brakes, and more.

All those changes cost money, and just as in a court settlement, automakers have brought arguments – sometimes valid, sometimes not so much – against what will cost them.

GM is now the leader in U.S. cumulative plug-in sales thanks to an early advantage with its Chevy Volt. It is making up for formerly playing a starring role in “Who Killed the Electric Car.”

California’s zero emission laws were an inspiration for the first major manufacturer electric car, GM’s EV1. In 2002 after the industry successfully pushed back, GM recalled the EV1 and subsequently crushed them in Arizona.

Presently, the Auto Alliance is again pushing back on behalf of the automakers – all of which will otherwise say they are on board with the sustainable and environmentally sensitive ethos now trending.

As in 2011, when the Auto Alliance said “62 mpg” federal CAFE rules – later negotiated down to “54.5 mpg” – would lead to the “loss of almost a quarter million jobs,” it is again coming up with studies and data to support similar allegations against CAFE 2022-2025 midterm evaluations. These are a review of tightening federal mpg/CO2 regulations for this time period leading toward approximately 37-40 mpg on window stickers by 2025.

Among talking points being spoken into the ears of regulators, legislators, and the media are again that jobs will be lost, and consumers will be faced with cars much more expensive than the EPA estimates. Further doubt sown is that automakers will be forced to build cars too few will buy, and given how cheap gas is, Americans are showing their druthers for more gas–guzzling vehicles than ever, and the Alliance is seeking a lessening of the standards for 2022-2025.

In it To Win It?

Are plug-in hybrids and all-electric cars like an either/or proposition, a zero sum game between them and the “entrenched paradigm” of internal combustion, or is there room for all? Some have said no, others have said maybe or yes.

Tesla chief Elon Musk has spoken of an “inherent conflict of interest” automakers have in selling truly competitive EVs alongside gas counterparts. He says if automakers make their bread and butter on gas-powered cars, selling an EV as outright better technology works against that dealer’s (and automaker’s) interests.

For now also, price for performance is in the internal combustion cars’ favor by some, if not all measures. Sticker prices between say, a Nissan Leaf and Versa, or Chevy Bolt and Sonic, mean some may have to maximize the energy superiority advantage EVs afford, and collect maximum subsidies as available to see them financially pay back.

EV advocates otherwise have pointed out successful use cases and ways to make them work for the family budget. EVs are more often leased which can make better sense, and consumers often volunteer as amateur EV ambassadors and say they’re happy with their choice.

Benefits include silent drive, enjoyable new technology – up to performance car levels from bigger battery cars like Teslas and to a lesser extent the 2017 Chevy Bolt – but alongside this discussion is the automaker commitment, or lack thereof.

Mercedes Generation EQ Concept. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche said it wants to surpass Tesla and lead the EV market by 2025, WITH 15-25 percent of its models projected to be zero-emission vehicles.

While automakers are making forward-looking statements for new EVs every week, it is tiny under-funded Tesla which last month sold an estimated 6,700 electric cars out of a total 10,000 U.S. deliveries amidst 10 other major automakers.

Why have none of the majors developed a real apple-for-apple competitor for the Model S yet? Some fans say they cannot, or lack the competence, but if there is anything automakers can do, it’s make new cars, even electric ones, though this can be a delicate subject. Auto executives have at times been publicly pilloried by EV fans when they let loose statements like Tesla won’t own the market forever, and implicitly say their German engineering heritage, for example, will rise to preeminence once again.

VW Group now says across its brands it will introduce on average three battery electric vehicles annually for the next 10 years.

But despite pride and ego added to a newfound desire to hug polar bears, sales are a bottom line marker of automakers’ real intent at pushing the envelope any sooner than they have to.

Also telling is a complete vacuum of larger plug-in vehicles like Americans prefer – including pickup trucks, mainstream-priced SUVs, mid-sized crossovers – and for now only eco cars are offered in the sub-$40,000 segment as a niche among niches.

‘Leaders and Laggards’

Recently the Union of Concerned Scientists evaluated the U.S. plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicle market and assessed the actual commitment automakers are expressing – not by their talk, but by their actions.

In calling out “leaders and laggards,” the UCS observed 24 plug-in electrified vehicles were introduced between 2010 and 2015 with more than 400,000 sold (the current count is over 522,000). What it found was the focal point was indeed the center of the regulatory universe, California, which last year bought 54 percent of American’s zero-emission vehicles.

“In 2015, Californians could choose from over 20 models; no other state had more than 14, and many offered virtually none,” said the UCS. “The difference between metropolitan areas was even starker. For example, between January and June of 2016, Boston had 90 percent fewer EV listings than Oakland, when adjusted for relative car ownership.”

Tales of dealers outside of California being uncommitted to stocking and selling vehicles, or sales people not as knowledgeable as the person trying to buy the plug-in car have been common anecdotal lore for the entire period.

Aside from Tesla which sells factory direct, automakers rely on franchised third party dealers. They do have a fair degree if not ultimate control over these franchises, but otherwise the availability of cars for sale outside of California and states that follow its zero emission rules is quite telling.

Leaders according to the UCS are BMW, General Motors, Nissan, and Tesla – and the Volt, Model S and Leaf account for about half of plug-in electrified car sales.

Laggards include Honda, Toyota, Fiat-Chrysler, Hyundai/Kia – though this latter is making inroads, and has an agenda to be a leader by 2020.

Self Interests

While both advocates and antagonists to the Tesla-esque ethos have been known to laud purported heroes and castigate alleged villains, as sure as John Maynard Keynes and other economists have said, all are following their self interests.

It thus may be a surface treatment of facts to make black-and-white judgments of Tesla as pure hero, for example, and Toyota as pure villain.

If put in the shoes of the legacy automakers, others might not do much differently. Automakers are financially tied to internal combustion to the tune of billions, and are emotionally and culturally wedded to them after a century of storied history as well. Practically, automakers make the majority of their revenues on more-profitable vehicles, not least being trucks and SUVs – which the American public does buy, through no actual fault of the automakers.

To give some perspective of the fix carmakers are in, imagine you inherited a family farm that grows radishes and squash, and you bank millions every year (this is a metaphor for the car business). Then imagine the government comes to you and says your produce is somehow bad for the environment, and you must switch over, but in doing so you need to retrain your workers, sales force, make new supplier agreements for new seeds, capital equipment, change your marketing and retrain your customers. And, costs will be higher, while there’s also no guaranty turning away from your former revenue source and way of life will be more profitable. Worse, what if you really love radishes and squash? What if you have doubts the government is taking the right approach, but were faced with the force of law, so had to tow the line?

That’s a very simplified metaphor for what legacy automakers are going through, while on the other hand you have Tesla.

The Tesla Counterpoint

Tesla correctly says others are virtually wedded to internal combustion, but just as true is that it is not. It therefore has nothing to lose, and everything to gain in going gonzo for EVs now. What’s more, its products with the goal of saving the environment dovetail into government plans and the present regulatory environment.

Musk at the Model 3 intro: “I want to start, just preface this by talking about why? Why are we doing this?” posed Musk. “Why does Tesla exist? Why are we making electric cars? Why does it matter? It’s because its very important to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. This is really important for the future of the world.”

Among benefits received from the regulatory regime are that Tesla was propped early on by a $465 million federal loan before its stock took off enabling it to repay it early. Further, 100 percent of Tesla’s products are eligible for a $7,500 federal tax credit – better than 10 percent of a base Model S – and its buyers can count on various incentives in several U.S. states, and other foreign markets. As an extra added bonus, Tesla has pocketed hundreds of millions of dollars by selling green credits it receives by California Air Resources Board rules, which is like money out of thin air – and a sweet deal in that the competition has to buy them.

Introduced in 2012, the Model S has evolved to a line starting with the 60 kwh model up to the ludicrously quick all-wheel-drive P100D. It lures buyers as a car that happens to be electric, and is paving the way for down-market Model 3 Tesla says will start at $35,000.

In short, Tesla is in a unique position without baggage to play the hero. Nor will it miss the glory days of any gas-burning vehicle, as it’s never spent a dime on these.

This is not to say Tesla’s message lacks integrity, but simply that it is unencumbered like others are. Tesla has been credited with a brilliantly timed business. It has also been looked at as a visionary, or at least exceedingly clever, while antagonists – or alleged stock market “short sellers” – have called it a scam.

Tesla positions its products in sync with other trends besides, is playing an important role, and represents many qualities, but one thing clear is that it’s working for its own best interests, and other automakers are working for theirs.

For that matter, consumers are advocating their interests, environmentalists theirs, oil companies theirs, and so on.

Common sense? Economics 101? Maybe so, but it can get lost in the shuffle in a world where people tend to like a simple narrative, even a team to root for – or against.

Tesla has been credited as a protagonist pushing majors to catch up, and it now is – though automakers which are staying ahead of regulations are otherwise profitable, some reporting record profits, thanks to the internal combustion hardware they purvey.

True though, the Model S, and to a lesser extent the Model X have gotten the attention of the likes of Mercedes, BMW, Audi, and others, but even more serious are 2021 European Union emissions rules which are forcing change far faster.

Baum observes Tesla could not be more than a boutique niche, like Detroit Electric, without the zero-emission regulatory paradigm enabling it, and its fundraising efforts. Tesla wants to balloon from 50,000 to 500,000 sales in a couple years, and no startup has morphed to volume automaker status to this degree in many decades, Baum said, but of course it is managing much more based on the bedrock foundation of regulations.

“Tesla is using the regulatory system as a springboard, but they understand to be successful so much more is needed, and they are doing their best to be a mainstream provider,” Baum said.

Among these is developing compelling cars desired in their own right, bypassing the franchised dealer model which also serves its aims, and keeping customers for the most part happy with the new alternative it represents.

Making a Market

As regulators clamp down this decade into next, and as automakers are now coming to terms with their regulator-mandated goals – and marketing themselves as energetically embracing them – synergies are coming into play, if slower than some would have liked.

Now even alleged laggards have electrification in the works, and the jump-started market is taking on a life of its own. Normal market forces like competitiveness, consumer demand, economies of scale, and declining costs are kicking in despite reluctance and adherence in some quarters to little more than the letter of the law.

Being a global market, the U.S. led by California was the early leader, but last year Europe and China began pulling ahead, with the latter now the world leader.

“China’s requirement to reduce emissions will actually assist automakers in development of their models for the world since most automakers want to participate in the growth that it offers,” observed Baum.

Still in its infancy with a mere 1 percent of the U.S. market and a slim minority in all other major markets, the electrified car industry is due for many more shifts, potentially much faster growth going forward – barring further complication.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/whats-really-motivating-automakers-to-build-electric-cars/feed/0Innovative Electric Cars Revealed At This Year’s Paris Motor Showhttp://www.hybridcars.com/innovative-electric-cars-revealed-at-this-years-paris-motor-show/
http://www.hybridcars.com/innovative-electric-cars-revealed-at-this-years-paris-motor-show/#commentsTue, 04 Oct 2016 01:37:31 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=501082This year’s Paris Motor Show is as significant for the cars being shown as much as for the cars that are conspicuously absent. A year ago at this time, the industry was just taking in the news of the unfolding VW diesel emission scandal which compounded pre-existing concerns over that technology’s environmental value. Paris Motor […]

For 2016, the auto show in the city which last fall gave the world the Paris Accord on climate change eschewed oil burners in favor of plug-in electrified vehicles – along with gas-powered – in what is being called an “inflection point” in the industry.

Faced with ever-tightening emissions regulations, and competitive efforts such as from Tesla, and other automakers embarking on an electric avenue, several automakers have made electric cars a focal point.

While there were not a staggering number of offerings displayed, and a few automakers sat out the show, perhaps most important is that the new electric cars signal more to come, even among automakers who were formerly less than gung ho about them.

Following are electric cars revealed this year in the industry that’s also primed to pair this technology with new business models, including mobility services, car sharing, and autonomous drive.

Daimler (Mercedes) EQ Brand

The main new car Mercedes-Benz is featuring is the Generation EQ Concept, but along with that came parent Daimler’s EQ brand dedicated to electric cars, and the company says this is one of 10 new electric cars for the Mercedes and Smart brands by 2025.

As for the concept, the small “close to production” 2-motor crossover with up to 402 horsepower is estimated to deliver roughly 311 miles (500 km) on the NEDC cycle thanks to an EV-specific platform allowing batteries in the floor.

This modular platform with adjustable wheelbase and track width will let Mercedes spin off sedans, coupes, SUVs, etc. helping to save Euros on their development, when battery costs are still high, though these have been declining relatively swiftly.

Coming back to the new brand, previously it was unclear that Daimler would create a counterpoint to BMW’s “i” sub-brand, but Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche said it wants to lead, and by 2025, 15-25 percent of its models are projected to be zero-emission vehicles.

Zetsche said also Daimler has established its CASE division for digital technologies overseeing incorporation of connected cars, autonomous driving, car sharing along with the electric vehicles.

Wireless charging.

“Connectivity, autonomous driving, sharing and electric drive systems – each of these four trends has the potential to turn our industry on its head,” said Zetsche. “Yet the real revolution lies in intelligently linking the four trends.”

He added the company has essentially been forced to develop new technologies in house to meet its criteria.

“We have the competence and the ability, and we cannot buy the technology from suppliers which do not yet exist,” he said while taking a thinly veiled jab at BMW which recently announced a partnership with Mobileye.

“We believe this is a unique selling point, and we cannot be ahead if we appoint a camera manufacturer to be our lead developer,” said Zetsche.

BMW Announcements

Conventional BMW X3.

The market is in such a state of flux that BMW’s top executives – who four years ago led out with the i3 and i8 and “i” sub brand, called a timeout from attending the show to powwow on what their next moves should be.

One of their next moves, not on display and only seen in spy shots for now, is an all-electric Mini due by 2019, to be followed by an all-electric BMW X3 SUV the following year.

According to Bloomberg, CEO Harald Krueger painted these as further positioning BMW to counter the rise of others, implicitly including Daimler, as well as VW Group, and more.

2017 Mini.

“Competitors are now in phase one on their electric strategy, while we’re entering phase two,” said Krueger. “We’re already well on our way to electrifying the core portfolio, using powertrain technology from BMW i.”

What’s next for the i sub brand was not stated, as the company is still gestating the rapidly changing landscape. Since release of the i3 and i8, the company has set its stake, but seems to be sitting back on new i models, though an i5 has long been rumored and is believed pending.

It will also remain to be seen how BMW integrates plug-in variants into its existing product line. Its iPerformance line is what it calls plug-in hybrids, some of which were built on early not very successful performance hybrids that don’t plug in.

No doubt BMW knows more will be needed with rivals announcing major plans through 2025, and even snubbing BMW as they do so.

Updated Renault Zoe

Not a full redesign, the popular Renault Zoe gets an update where it counts with a next-generation LG Chem derived battery pack with 41 kWh. A 22-kWh pack will remain as an offering, but the new pack is good for a theoretical 248 miles (400 km) – if you believe the exceedingly generous European NEDC test cycle.

Realistically, it probably will have little difficulty doing 175-185 miles. Renault officially states it’s good for 186 miles in the “real world,” meaning 200 could be in reach on a good (easy going) day, and compact EV otherwise is looking competitive.

Updated infotainment and other minor details come along with the same basic body design that has been good enough to see the Zoe as a best-seller in Europe. Most recently, however, its sales have fallen behind the BMW i3 which just got a new battery too, good for roughly 124 miles real world range.

Unfortunately for U.S. consumers, this now slightly more peppy EV is not sold here, but it otherwise holds implications for the Zoe’s sister in the Renault-Nissan Alliance – the 2017 Nissan Leaf.

Rumors have been the Leaf might get another booster shot until gen 2 arrives, and the 41 kWh battery is conjectured as possible.

Worth a mention also, Mitsubishi, another bullish but until now under-resourced company with big plug-in plans, is also now coming under the Alliance and may now have a better shot at fulfilling its ambitions.

New Smart Electric Drive Models

The new EVs feature 80 horsepower and 118 pound-feet of torque, and 99 miles (160 kilometers) range under European rules, but expect that figure to be less on the U.S. cycle.

Of note is that Smart says it will be the world’s only automaker to offer its entire lineup with both combustion engines and pure battery-electric drive, though for some unstated reason, a Smart ForFour won’t be available in the U.S.

The electric drive powertrain shared among all three models offers 118 pounds-feet torque and 80 horsepower. Preliminary U.S. charge time estimates are 2.5 hours compared to 5.5 hours for the previous generation.

U.S. deliveries are slated for spring for the new Smart ForTwo coupe, and the Smart ForTwo cabriolet will show up soon after in the summer. Pricing on the ForTwo models will be announced later.

Volkswagen I.D. Concept

As we originally wrote, and as others have now said as well, VW wants you to forget dieselgate, and the I.D. Concept at Paris with plans to eventually supplant the eGolf is this month’s forget drug of choice.

Not a converted ICE-mobile (internal combustion engine car), the new EV concept rides on the modular MEB platform and present configuration promises 168 horsepower and between 249 and 373 miles range on the NEDC cycle.

The Volkswagen I.D. will be rear-motored and rear-wheel-drive, much like the original Beetle – a success story in its own right whose memory VW is invoking.

Unlike the Beetle, the I.D.’s motor is actually between the wheels, which is part of what gives it a front-to-rear 47/53 weight distribution. This is helped by the battery packs which sit in the middle of the car, under the passengers.

Unfortunately, the car is not projected to be built until 2020.

Volkswagen has otherwise been at work on more models, and its Audi and Porsche divisions also have electric cars in the works.

Opel Ampera-e

What may well be the best – in terms of what mainstream consumers can get soon – is saved for last, and Americans know it as the rebadged Chevy Bolt called for Europe the Opel Ampera-e.

Touting its Leaf withering range, Opel staged a publicity stunt that saw it travel 260 miles on a single charge from London to Paris, with 50 miles left on the range-o-meter.

Officially, the NEDC rate it 311 miles (500 km), and the U.S. EPA says the Bolt is good for 238 miles combined, or 217 highway, 255 city.

A zippy compact crossover with 150 kW/204 horsepower and 360 Nm (266 pound-feet) torque, the car originally developed in a GM design studio in Australia with battery in floor and excellent interior space utilization promises 0-31 in 3.2 seconds, and 50-75 mph in a brisk 4.5 seconds.

The front wheel drive vehicle does not offer different battery options or all-wheel-drive as Tesla’s promised Model 3 is supposed to.

It is however the first bona fide 200-plus-mile EV in its price category. It also benefits from a thermally managed battery built by GM utilizing LG Chem cells, and shares in lessons learned from the Spark EV and Volt whose powertrains have proven relatively reliable.

Unfortunately for UK customers, a right hand drive version is not being made under the Vauxhall nameplate.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/innovative-electric-cars-revealed-at-this-years-paris-motor-show/feed/0China Buys Half-Millionth Passenger Plug-in Car; On Track To Surpass UShttp://www.hybridcars.com/china-buys-half-millionth-passenger-plug-in-car-on-track-to-surpass-us/
http://www.hybridcars.com/china-buys-half-millionth-passenger-plug-in-car-on-track-to-surpass-us/#commentsWed, 28 Sep 2016 21:12:19 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=498530This month China is expected to have purchased in excess of a cumulative total of 500,000 plug-in passenger vehicles, potentially surpassing the U.S. in the process. Exact counts of all “New Energy Vehicles” (NEVs) won’t be known until after the month’s end, but the nation had an estimated 493,290 in the bag through August, and […]

]]>This month China is expected to have purchased in excess of a cumulative total of 500,000 plug-in passenger vehicles, potentially surpassing the U.S. in the process.

Exact counts of all “New Energy Vehicles” (NEVs) won’t be known until after the month’s end, but the nation had an estimated 493,290 in the bag through August, and has consistently bought around 30,000 monthly in recent months.

It will be close, but odds are in China’s favor it could wind up in the neighborhood of 523,000 units – not including imported Teslas or BMW i3s – to edge out the U.S.

The U.S. crossed the 500,000 mark with 506,540 units tallied through August after more or less consistent growth since 2011, and counting a few fringe models back to 2008.

This month the U.S. may see enough sales to get it close to 520,000, so again, the jury is out, but China’s sooner-or-later NEV sales supremacy over the U.S. – and still number-one Europe – looks assured.

Europe – the first of these markets which combined account for most plug-in cars on the planet – transcended 500,000 units in May, and the tally through July was 535,619, with exact count through August around 550,000.

At its present rate, China could eclipse Europe by November, but numbers are only part of the picture.

While today Chinese companies such as LeEco (pictured top), Warren Buffett-backed BYD, and several others are spooling up their designs, the technological leadership has come from Europe, Japan, and the U.S. To this day, while things are shifting toward improved models, many of the plug-in electrified passenger vehicles sold in China are small tin cans that many an American would not consider safe or desirable.

And for a variety of reasons besides, unlike the U.S., China was not as successful at first jump starting its new energy vehicle sales since 2009 when it began to throw incentive money at manufacturers and consumers to create a new market.

That market was announced with four goals. These were 1) to establish a world-leading industry along with jobs and exports; 2) facilitate a reduction in Middle East oil dependence; 3) enable the reduction of urban air pollution; and 4) to also cut carbon emissions.

Despite incentives and prodding from the central government, China missed production and sales targets up till 2014 while achieving some growth, then in 2015 it exploded with a record 207,380 plug-in passenger cars sold.

Later doubts were raised on counts as it was discovered cheating was taking place by unscrupulous people trying to game the free government money, and claiming sales on paper only.

A recently published global outlook by the U.S. Energy Information Agency established that 312,290 plug-in cars had been sold by the end of 2015, and current counts, while there may be variance, are believed more or less reliable.

China incidentally is the world leader also in commercial electric buses, with over 150,000 sold – much more than the number of Chevy Volts sold worldwide, as one example, and representing a significant dent in carbon emissions.

BYD eBus.

In May we reported another “500,000” milestone for China – this included all NEVs, including sanitation trucks and buses. The milestone for September 2016 is just for passenger vehicles, and China’s total NEV tally is estimated at 689,447 through August.

Given all counts, and current sales, the world could surpass the 2 million unit milestone this year in the yet-nascent industry.

And, China, it appears after dozing through the early years while the U.S., Europe, and Japan were energetically making a bit more relative progress, will preside as the global leader in commercial and passenger segments.

Notable also is China is a magnet for major automakers – aside from a few reluctant to share too much intellectual property. Active with state-required joint-venture partners are companies including Nissan, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and several others.

On the consumer benefit side, this means more research and development on vehicles that could find their way to other markets.

GM’s Cadillac CT6 PHEV is a prime example. That car was developed for China, and is to be exported back to the U.S.

Communist China’s policies otherwise have been a concern for some, as it has the stated goal of being world leader, and it is leveraging its massive population and resultant market to pull in the best and brightest from the West to accelerate its goals.

And, with the present state of affairs, while plug-ins are still a drop in the bucket next to 75 million vehicles projected to be sold in total worldwide this year, it is gaining traction, and is not looking back.

]]>http://www.hybridcars.com/china-buys-half-millionth-passenger-plug-in-car-on-track-to-surpass-us/feed/0Are You Ready For the Autonomous Vehicle Revolution?http://www.hybridcars.com/are-you-ready-for-the-autonomous-vehicle-revolution/
http://www.hybridcars.com/are-you-ready-for-the-autonomous-vehicle-revolution/#commentsWed, 28 Sep 2016 03:00:08 +0000http://www.hybridcars.com/?p=497666For many people, fully autonomous cars may seem still off in an uncertain future, but the radical changes they’re projected to bring are approaching. Their ascendancy into the public arena has meanwhile captured the imagination of people for the good they are promised to bring to society, including mobility for the infirm and non-driving elderly, […]

]]>For many people, fully autonomous cars may seem still off in an uncertain future, but the radical changes they’re projected to bring are approaching.

Their ascendancy into the public arena has meanwhile captured the imagination of people for the good they are promised to bring to society, including mobility for the infirm and non-driving elderly, children, and they hold out other positive benefits besides.

At the same time, skeptics of the potential solution dangling before our eyes have said be careful what you wish for, as interlaced with ostensible benefits are a host of major shifts in society and the economy projected to accompany vehicles that drive themselves.

Certainly the technology is being taken seriously, and financial and engineering resources are being devoted by most major automakers, as well as companies that supply carmakers, and aspiring carmakers as well.

Ford’s President and CEO Mark Fields has beaten the band that by 2021 a car better looking than what Google is now parading, but similar in that it has no pedals or steering wheel, will be in limited commercial use.

The Dearborn automaker has also said it sees eventual mass-produced autonomous cars as bringing changes to our world as profound as its most treasured heritage and point of company pride.

Advocates see a self-driving cars as a reduction in the rising death toll.

“We believe that the next decade is going to be defined by the automation of the automobile,” said Fields this month at Ford’s headquarters. “In fact we see autonomous vehicles as having as significant an impact on society as Ford’s moving assembly line did more than 100 years ago.”

Several of these entities, as well as Google, have publicly stated timelines for varying degrees of autonomous technology more advanced than Tesla’s semi-autonomous Autopilot as soon as a couple years from now, into early next decade.

In short, everyone who is someone in the auto industry, is racing to get you a car that will pilot you unfettered from distractions like steering, accelerating, and braking.

Bullish and Bearish Outlooks

Headlines have for a few years now reported cars that may drive autonomously in relatively tame situations.

There are a few standards of grading the degrees of autonomous drive capability, and a couple in the U.S. are by the National Highway Transportation Administration, and the SAE. These numerically score from a base level of full driver involvement/zero autonomy, to degrees of autonomy up to fully driverless at level 4 for NHTSA, or level 5 meaning the same basic thing by SAE.

Perhaps one of the reasons the public is still standing back is that there have been conflicting projections on true driverless tech being ready for general public use without the use of 3D maps, and geofenced areas such as Ford is starting with by 2021.

In October 2014, Tesla head Elon Musk estimated that “five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination.”

Nissan also has projected a timeline of consumer vehicles by decade’s end, with greater progress into next decade.

Other bullish statements have come from various companies, but alternately, in an August 2016 report by MIT Technology Review, the takeaway, focusing on Ford, but with broader implications for the industry, was don’t believe the hype.

The article quoted an expert with more than 20 years experience working on the technology, Steven Shladover of the University of California, Berkeley, who expressed doubt about unbridled freedom as soon as others have hoped.

“It ain’t going to be five years,” said Shladover. “The hype has gotten totally out of sync with reality.”

For all the news value a promised car by 2021 without steering wheel and pedals has garnered Ford, Princeton professor and director of its transportation program Alain Kornhauser, said these will be on a strict leash.

“By then we may be able to define [a] ‘fenced’ region of space where we can in fact let cars out there without a driver,” he says. “The challenge will be making that fenced-in area large enough so that it provides a valuable service.”

Ford has projected vaguely by mid decade fully autonomous cars we all may buy could be for sale, but it as do others politely refer to “challenges” that must first be overcome.

Challenges

The gee-whiz demonstrations of cars that can pilot around a closed course in clear, dry weather are about the level of a nursery school student still not able to play with the big kids.

Autonomous cars may use overlapping technology to present an image to the computer brain for the vehicle to “see” and make decisions in a nano second. Sensors include cameras, sonar, LIDAR, radar, and GPS.

To date, things that can baffle self-driving cars include rain, snow, hail, and sleet. Also being able to recognize hand signals is a an obstacle yet to be perfected. Further, not having the ability as of yet to make eye contact with other drivers (or vehicles) present hurdles before the cars are truly off leash.

Another hurdle is, say, if a pedestrian walks across the road, and the car is programmed to stop and yield – but instead the pedestrian offers the car the right of way. Who will settle this standoff in congeniality is another challenge among many.

Unintended Consequences

In the encyclopedia under Unintended Consequences, there are some who’d just as soon put the photo of an autonomus car as a case example.

Like a Trojan horse that looks like a phenomenal gift, skeptics have warned about a dark side or at least radical changes coming.

Traditional auto writers have been among those who look at them with suspicion, as they do indeed stand to relegate the driver to chief occupant, undermining their passion for driving.

Apart from any self-oriented motives, Car and Driver’s Benjamin Preston documents a scenario that even George Orwell did not as clearly define, but one just as concerning.

What happens if all the tech hurdles are worked out and fully autonomous cars start to be sold by the thousands, then millions? Driverless cars still will not be infallible, writes Preston, this will also present a target for hackers and other bad actors to co-opt control of a vehicle you trust with your safety. Whether this is likely, there are other changes on the horizon with greater projected possibility of coming true.

For example, the loss of jobs is projected. Citing Oxford University’s Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, computerization in general stands to cut half of all U.S. jobs in the next 20 years.

Looking at computerized self-driving cars, 200,000 taxi drivers plus 3.4 million truck drivers are standing in the way of the driver-free future, says Preston.

A 2014 video by Daimler AG however addresses this concern, saying its Future Truck 2025 would not replace the driver, but concerns remain.

Looking at such things as a positive, voices from the industry development side have observed that autonomous cars stand to do for driving jobs what robots have done for manufacturing jobs – displacing humans, while big businesses profit.

“If you were to take the ride service model, the most expensive thing in that model is actually the driver,” said Raj Nair, executive vice president for product development, and chief technology officer of autonomous ride sharing cars that cost one-sixth as much per mile to operate as do conventional taxis. “And if you were to automate it – just like a robot were replacing an operator in a factory – automating that, you could reduce the cost per mile to let’s say a buck a mile.”

Another mystery is what the emissions impact will be. Preston conjectures a 40-percent decrease in car sales. Others say miles traveled may be higher. “Will self-driving be heaven or hell? Utopia or dystopia?” said Chris Grundler, head of the U.S. EPA’s air-quality and transportation office to Automotive News. “I don’t have the answers. But we’ve certainly concluded there is an environmental public-policy aspect that needs to be considered.”

Of course consumers are promised benefit in this scenario, and others, but again, it may not all be as utopian as some imagine.

Another kicker for governments, according to research from the Brookings Institute, will be the loss of revenue from parking tickets and speeding and other moving violation citations, as the good citizen autonomous cars will not be scofflaws like their human counterparts.

For all the fuss law enforcement might make over infractions against traffic laws, governments count on the law-breaking populace as a form of revenue, and this stands to be eroded.

Others might say this is a net positive, but selling new taxes to replace lost revenue streams is never popular, and in any case, is presented as a potential challenge in the next decade or maybe longer.

If that is not enough, autonomous cars have also cast a not-so flattering light on humanity. Part of the reason why policymakers and the public are clamoriong for them as of yesterday, say critics in blunt terms, boils down to reasons including laziness, incompetence, and lack of personal accountability.

Policymakers have decried a distracted driving “epidemic” as though a new strain of disease has infected society, and the solution, observes Preston, is to relieve drivers of responsibility, not correct their behaviors.

Same goes for driver training and expected competence, which once upon a time was the recommended procedure, but instead, we want machines to do it for us.

Three modes are promised by Volvo’s Concept 26. Another concern is whether the “freedom” driverless cars afford in due time leads to the removal of the freedom to drive one’s own automobile. Just as the insurance lobby once petitioned Congress for a 55 mph nationwide speed limit, and argued it would save lives and money, so could arguments be brought in time against people driving on public roads. This no doubt is in the back of the mind of auto enthusiasts uneasy about the liberation other see.

Volvo’s Concept 26 is a prime example, in which the driver may switch attention from road, seat pushes back away from the controls, and a 25-inch screen comes into view in place of the front windscreen. Here in “Relax” mode, the car of the future can let the comfortable worker use his or her commute time to get started on the work day for the boss, or one may just kick back and watch some content, or otherwise use the time.

“As driverless vehicles take root, futurists see autonomy reshaping the country as completely as did the automobile itself,” writes Preston.

Ethics

Life and death decisions such as society has not yet had to accept could be delegated to our vehicles assuming the futurists’ wildest dreams come true.

That a dialogue needs to happen soon if not now has been the not-well-heard refrain of numerous groups, including consumer watchdogs such as the Consumer Federation of America and Consumer Reports.

Knowing that the discussion needs to take place, even automakers like Ford have said from the top the public has been too silent on what is predicted to impact the society potentially more than whether Hilary or Donald get elected in November.

“I think that’s going to require some very deep and meaningful conversation as a society in terms of how do we want these vehicles to behave, whose lives are they going to save?” said Executive Chairman Bill Ford. “And no one company is going to settle that.”

Meanwhile, as the public, policymakers, and the industry are selling the sizzle of autonomous cars, people will have to accept all that comes with them, and this conversation starter barely scratches the surface.