4of7Texas House Members and their families and guests stand for the Pledge of Allegiance during the opening of the 86th Texas Legislative session, Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)Photo: Eric Gay, STF / Associated Press

5of7New House Speaker Dennis Bonnen, R-Angleton, right, greets Gov. Greg Abbott, left, as he arrives to address the House members during the first day of the 86th Texas Legislative session, Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)Photo: Eric Gay, STF / Associated Press

6of7Gov. Greg Abbott arrives to address the House members during the first day of the 86th Texas Legislative session, Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2019, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)Photo: Eric Gay, STF / Associated Press

7of7Guests pass through the rotunda at the Texas State Capitol on Monday, Jan. 7, 2019, in Austin, the day before the 86th Texas Legislative session opened.Photo: Eric Gay, STF / Associated Press

Texas politicians promise the moon, the sun and the stars: Teachers will receive raises, schools will get more money and property taxes will be reformed.

No one, though, is proposing a plan that will lower your property taxes. The best anyone can promise is that property taxes will not rise as fast as they would without action.

Remember that when Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, House Speaker Dennis Bonnen and other politicians talk about overhauling public school finance and property taxes, they are only offering tweaks to the existing system. They are not recommending the kind of bold change that would reduce the average person’s property taxes or assess taxes in fairer ways.

Taxes and schools are two sides of the same problem. Texas’ school finance system is the product of an archaic state constitution, numerous lawsuits and politicians incapable of resisting the allure of tax cuts for the wealthy.

Put succinctly, the Legislature determines how much money will be spent per student. School districts levy the vast majority of property taxes to finance most of their operations and maintenance. Any shortfall is funded by the state, which relies on sales taxes, business taxes and fees for discretionary spending.

The Texas Constitution prohibits a state property tax or an income tax, tying the hands of state lawmakers. School boards, though, are raising property tax revenues quicker than inflation or average incomes, forcing people to sell their homes or shutter their businesses when taxes get too high.

Voters are frustrated that Texas schools are ranked 46th in the nation while property taxes are among the highest.

Republicans want to limit how fast school districts can raise property tax revenues. In 2017, the Senate wanted to require voter approval if revenues rose more than 4 percent, while the House wanted a 6 percent limit. Abbott has proposed 2.5 percent for school districts, less than inflation plus population growth.

Abbott’s plan would mean that barring voter approval, property taxes would rise several hundred dollars less a year than could under the current system, according to a Hearst Newspapers analysis. His plan would not reduce taxes, just slow their growth.

To increase per-student spending, Abbott proposed diverting oil and gas taxes from the state rainy day fund. But that would not only hurt the state emergency fund but also make school funding dependent on a highly volatile industry.

Busts are so common that oil and gas veterans brag about how many they have survived. In nine of the last 30 years, oil prices have fallen more than 25 percent year-over-year. If lawmakers adopt Abbott’s recommendation, there will be a funding crisis every 3.3 years.

Global energy analysts also question how much longer demand for oil will grow with the arrival of affordable electric vehicles and global restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions. The entire industry could peak by 2030, less than a decade from when Abbott’s plan would take effect.

The best thing lawmakers could do this legislative session, if they have the guts, is to implement an entirely new tax system with a Constitutional amendment. A statewide schools tax could save money by simplifying collection and boost per-student spending while improving performance.

Lawmakers could impose a statewide property tax, but only a progressive tax would make it less burdensome on residential property owners and small businesses. A tiered tax with brackets based on the total value of property a person owns statewide could lower taxes on families and small businesses while raising taxes on the state’s largest property owners.

The primary complaint with the current system is that a business’ or person’s tax burden has nothing to do with the ability to pay. An even fairer system would institute personal and corporate income taxes in return for eliminating school property taxes and the state franchise tax.

Revenues from an income tax would grow with higher wages, not with higher property valuations triggered by economic development or migration. Texans, though, take a foolish pride in the lack of an income tax, despite the economic inefficiencies.

Lawmakers, therefore, will only tweak the current system rather than explore smarter options. As a result, property taxes will continue to force small businesses to shut down and drive people out of their homes. And next year property taxes will be higher.

Chris Tomlinson has written commentary on business, energy and economics for the Houston Chronicle since 2014. Before joining the Chronicle, he spent 20 years with The Associated Press reporting on politics, conflicts and economics from more than 30 countries in Africa, the Middle East and Europe. He’s also the author of the New York Times bestseller Tomlinson Hill, and he produced the award-winning documentary film by the same name. Both examine the history and consequences of race, politics and economics in Texas.