The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.

The male Mallard is the widely recognized “green-headed” duck and is a common sight in waterside parks. The more somber female, clad mostly in brown, still shares the male’s white tail. By 2080, Audubon's climate model projects a significant shift northward during the summer, with 75 percent loss in current summer range. The winter range appears stable, with a less than 10 percent change from the current range. Despite security during the winter, this popular game bird faces a dramatic and difficult adjustment during the summer, as the species largely departs the lower 48 by the end of the century.

Species Range Change from 2000 to 2080

The size of the circles roughly indicates the species’ range size in 2000 (left) and 2080 (right).

The amount of overlap between the 2000 circle and the 2080 circle indicates how stable the range will be geographically. Lots of overlap means the bird’s range doesn’t shift much. No overlap means the species will leave its current range entirely.