Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Even market had witnessed heavy short covering last Friday, we advice all to utilize this relief rally to exit long positions from front line stocks (most of them holding below their 200DMA)… Whenever oil price hike takes place, it will lead to higher inflation only… When this kind of high inflation is going on, we expect government can’t meet its projected fiscal deficit level of 4.6%...

With the same view, many of the foreign investment institutions warned that India is not dearer for investment with current economical conditions, when comparing with other emerging markets (This is one of the most important reason why FII’s were continued to be on seller side in last few months)… We must consider the rising debt issues again in European zone (Greece & Italy), if fail to control it that could give setback again in markets…

FII’S selling for a tune about Rs.1000 crores in last week given a setback, before ending with marginal gain on Friday lead by Short covering and positive Global cues.

On political front, DMK MP Kanimozhi’s arrest on Friday in 2G Spectrum scam case (already DMK MP A.Raja was in prison) that may / may not affect the relationship between DMK – Congress (But possible to bring negative sentiment on some big corporate)… Same time we can expect some major changes in cabinet level, since Supreme Court severely warns the ruling government and authorities on their laziness on recent bribes / scams like 2G spectrum and CWG… So be cautious…

As mentioned yesterday, Nifty achieved the both targets of 5480 as well as 5510 which were set when Nifty had declined sharply by more than 200 points from 5605 to 5401. However the pattern from which Nifty had given bearish breakout had lower targets of 5350-5325 which are likely to be achieved in coming days. At the same time Nifty has already opened doors for lower targets of 5000 & bellow in coming days. On the bullish side, if Intraday Nifty stock manages to close above 5500 then the bearish outlook may get negated & fresh bullish targets will be worked out.

Best Intraday Nifty Stock opened with a huge negative gap of nearly 55-60 points on weak global cues & also on the news that these FIIs have heavily sold equity in Indian market. Nifty tried to recover & touched a high of 5440 but could not sustain the higher levels & gradually drifted lower to touch an intra day low of 5373 before remaining in a tight range of 20 points for more than 150 minutes prior to close & finally managed to close at 5390, about 96 points below the previous close.

As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, Intraday Nifty, which had given bearish breakout from a "Channel cum Flag" formation touched a low of 5401 & bounced back till the bottom line of the pattern at 5510-5515 & resumed its downward journey towards the target of 5350-5325 which had been set after Nifty gave breakout from the bearish pattern. With bearish targets not far away Intraday Nifty had already entered the oversold zones & ripe for recovery to 5425 likely. On the bullish side, if Nifty manages to close above 5510 the bearish targets will get negated.