When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

After a week off, Bubble Watch is back with an all-CW edition (in the text, the table as ever has all shows). For purposes of the comments below, Cult is presumed already dead as far as any discussion about next season.

Of the possible scenarios among Hart Of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty And The BeastI give slightly better chances (55%) that only Hart Of Dixiewill be renewed than Hart of Dixie + 1 other being renewed (35%-40%), which is a lot better chance than all three being renewed (5%-10%) which is better than the chances all three would be canceled (0%).

Given that all three shows will not be cancelled and that it’s very unlikely all three will be renewed the most likely outcome is at least one of the three will be renewed and at least one of the three will be canceled. The renewed side is easier to predict, if only one were to be renewed, it's Hart of Dixieand that’s a pretty simple callconsidering recent ratings and its relative proximity to syndication versus the other two.

It's a fact that with that Beauty And The Beast fares better than the other two if you look at the season’s 18-49 ratings. Normally that view of the world serves you pretty well. It doesn’t do so well for the CW, especially when it comes to recent Thursday 9pm shows. This time last year The Secret Circle had a far wider margin over Hart of Dixie than Beauty and the Beast currently has over The Carrie Diaries and Hart of Dixie. And heck, The Secret Circle's lead shrunk a fair bit from March to May of last year, and it still finished with a much bigger lead than Beauty and the Beast currently has over the other two. Moreover, when it comes to the women 18-34 that all three shows presumably target, Hart of Dixie has the outright lead.

But Could They Really Premiere Four Shows at Once? What if ANTM Doesn’t Squeak onto the Fall Schedule!

I'm not ignoring these questions, I just don't think they are huge considerations at this point and those and other considerations (What if the pilots stink?! What if Beauty and the Beast really IS a huge international success?!) are baked into the 35%-40% chance 2 out of 3 of the shows would be renewed.

CW doesn't really seem to care that much about having holes in its schedule. I say that because it always seems to wind up with at least 2-3 holes. Having holes is fine. What's not fine is heading into upfront sales season with pre-announced holes in the fall schedule! They got around that this season by pushing ANTM slightly (for 7 Fridays) into the fall schedule.

The CW isn't afraid to premiere four new series in the fall either. It did just that last season (fall 2011.) One of them was the unscripted H8R! which was canceled after a mere four weeks and replaced with Ringerrepeats. A quick hole in the schedule, but at least they launched that season without any holes!

My guess is CW winds up heading into fall with three new scripted series and one new unscripted series regardless of what they do with Fridays (even if Beauty and the Beast moved to Fridays next season, they’d still need to launch four new series in the fall.) I’d be downright shocked if there were pre-announced holes on the fall schedule in the Monday-Thursday timeframe. I wouldn’t be shocked if they announced an hour of Friday as TBD/repeats of new series, but I’d be at least a little bit surprised.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Since the same thing is on everyday at 7:30pm, there’s no reason for ABC to be in any particular trouble at 8pm on Thursdays.

Also, I can’t speak for the entire country, but in my market (Chicago), ABC has Wheel of Fortune in that timeslot and it is one of the highest rated synidcated programs.

Jazz

@samurai99
Thank you. I think Community will be the one and maybe another surprise but I am prepared to let them all go.

@Anna Bones Clarkwood
Great points. I like soaps. But, I don’t like when they toss soapy stuff into dramas. Suits is becoming more soapy and I don’t think it fits. If Community had a bunch of people making out, it wouldn’t make sense but a little here and there is fine. Revolution has a little of it but it’s still mostly looks and glances, inappropriate as it is between relatives.

It’s hard when you sample a show like Terra Nova, The Event or Revolution, even Zero Hour. They may not be great but you get hooked and at least want to see some completion. You want to see where the crazy bread crumbs go, if anywhere.

iggy

The true test for the CW is going to be convincing the local affiliates to re-sign,

I wouldn’t think so. My Network TV only lost a handful of affiliates in 2009 when it nullified its contracts to become a package of reruns.

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“The true test for the CW is going to be convincing the local affiliates to re-sign,

I wouldn’t think so. My Network TV only lost a handful of affiliates in 2009 when it nullified its contracts to become a package of reruns.”

Unless you have specific information (I don’t), equating the two situations is likely not valid.

Anna Bones Clarkwood

I don’t know internal costs but just moving from CBS to say NBC or CW doesn’t just mean ratings but budget concerns.

Does Time Warner want to pay the same (or higher b/c the show ages) budget in salaries to move to NBC/CW? Or, maybe NBC/CW are so desperate they might help foot the bill b/c that’s 1 less hour that they have to devote to a new series.

Yes, The Mentalist seems to be getting pretty stable ratings & it’s own fanbase & yes the move may not hurt the demo too much. A new network can act just like a move to Friday. If the demo being dropped that much is still good, even though CW would probably want it for Monday or Tuesday & NBC would want it for 10pm Tues/Thur or Wed 8pm, then they might just want to buy it.

Shows do switch networks, but it is a rarity. In fact, I wonder just what went behind the scenes with Cougar Town. Did Courtney Cox et all take a pay cut? Did Sony basically give it out for free b/c they wanted syndication?

The Mentalist, if moved to NBC, would probably be on the lower side of the dramas esp the crime dramas but still higher than most of the comedies aka 1.3-1.6. So, if they want to decrease their comedies or non crime dramas, then along with the fact that NBC does still have a lot of $, a 1 season renewal would be smart enough move.

The Mentalist moved to CW makes a lot of sense. I’m sure that it will be getting 1s for demo, so that makes it 4th no matter what, probably 2nd or 1st most weeks aka 1.1-1.4. Right now, they really only want to renew 3 shows, plus of course Nikita they have already made their bed with. Which leaves a lot of holes that with a less than optimal renewal or 2, still means a lot of new programming that needs to start working or their status as a full schedule network remains in question. They already don’t program Sundays or Saturdays & like FOX don’t program 10pm. CW is part owned by both CBS & Time Warner so moving the Mentalist to CW, to try and get CW a higher reputation would help. In fact, CBS might be willing to air a few ads broadcasting the move to CW. I doubt they’d do that for NBC. The Mentalist doesn’t feel completely out of place since Supernatural is at times crime of the week. But other than that, CW isn’t a procedural network and while they seem to be giving up on “Girly” shows, the focus is on fantasy/sci fi not procedural going forward. Then again, if they used The Mentalist 1st season as a test, maybe in the coming seasons, they can broaden into that genre as well. CW loves Syndication (look @ Nikita etc) & Procedural shows tend to get to syndication, provided they get past season 1.

Shows like Happy Endings getting renewed via a change in network doesn’t make sense nor does Vegas. The Mentalist is actually the only show with it’s current status on it’s own network in question that actually has a reasonable chance of making a move of networks make sense.

CBS has such a strong schedule that they are “forced” to cancel shows that other networks (mostly NBC & CW) would like demo wise.

As much as I’d love CW to pick up Rules of Engagement & Community, CW isn’t in the Comedy Programming Game so there is no precedent to see how the Nielsen viewers would react.

Basically anything on NBC that NBC itself decides New is better than renewal is too close to, after a network change, cancellation even on CW to be worth picking up.

FOX has already renewed basically everything. They are going to renew Glee & Cleveland Show won’t work on NBC much less CW. Touch is just too expensive.

ABC’s schedule is also very strong, they may be the 4th Network, even behind NBC, I think that might be b/c of it’s drama ratings. And, those are bad for NBC and as they are new shows, even CW shouldn’t test them out. At least not until s1 shows get picked up a lot more regularly. Also, the reason is b/c they don’t have SNF/Voice or XF/AI or a lot of higher than 2.5 shows on their Network.

All in all, only CBS left overs stand a chance on a new network, & probably not FOX/ABC only NBC/CW or Cable. True, Maybe Cleveland Show could work on Comedy Central but I don’t have those numbers. There is a reason why Network to Cable is rare, probably even more rare than Network to Network. Forget Cable to Cable & Cable to Network. Personally, right now I’m thinking of more Network to Cable moves than NW to NW, but still I’ve read that irregardless of my memory, moves don’t happen that often at all.

This day & age we aren’t tied to a particular network, so we would be willing to tune into a different network to watch our show, provided it doesn’t air in conflict with another fav of ours.

This also means that whatever audience it has, it has. Meaning, it won’t find a new audience. Then again, there is an argument that if Nielsen viewers don’t go online or watch enough programming on each network, they might be missing a show they might like. Lie in my case, so many cable shows I would be liking to watch but even though I am now watching TNT/USA, I am still way behind on shows on other Cable shows that I hadn’t heard about until I read about them here on TVBTN.

For instance, if Go On (NBC) was given Malibu Country’s (ABC) timeslot next season, I don’t think it will find anymore Live+7 viewers. But, ABC might consider it b/c Tuesday @ 9pm is comedy filled & Live+7 numbers are decent enough. If possible viewers don’t watch enough NBC, they might not hear about NBC shows. So, for ABC viewers, Go On would be new to them & Go On does kind of seem like a real nice fit with Last Man Standing.

Then again, this does apply to all shows that don’t get advertisements on other Networks, particularly cable shows but also broadcast. I don’t watch/read ads at all via tv or online. The only way I find out about shows is mostly via TVBTN. I would hope that any new shows with any chance of being a good show is advertised well enough that even if the Nielsen viewer only tunes into 1 or 2 shows on that Network that they will see the ad & be given enough chance to know about the show enough to decide.

If that isn’t the case, then the move to another network argument becomes more valid b/c potential viewers weren’t given a chance to decide to tune in or not.

if shows on NBC/CW moved to a new network, they’d get a higher demo. But, would it be enough?

For shows on CW: I’m thinking a .4-.6 on CW translates @ best .9-1.2 on NBC & on FOX/ABC @ best 1.4-1.6 & on CBS @ best 1.7-1.9. I don’t think that’s enough for those Networks.

For shows on NBC, I’m thinking FOX/ABC would get shows that were .9-1.2 up to 1.5-1.8 & CBS 1.8-2.1. I don’t think that would be enough either.

iggy

Bill, MyNet affiliates didn’t jump ship when they had the opportunity, so I don’t expect CW affiliates to jump ship when they get their opportunities.

Ultima

@ImmaculateEvidence that this is presently, or at least, relatively recently, a general pattern among shows.

Right, I don’t think you understand the effort involved to do that. I’m not going to list the ratings for dozens of shows just to prove a point and I’m not going to sit around calculating averages either.

I’m assuming you’re new to ratings and it’s good that you question things. However, in this case you can either take the word of people with more experience, research it yourself or just wait and observe.

Crappy answer, I know, but it is what it is.

BatB had a .6 in its most recent new episode that was knocked down to a .5 because of a bogus half hour “adjustment”

I missed this the first time. Beauty and the Beast had a 0.5 rating for its most recent new episode. It’s the final rating that’s accruate, not the overnights, which are just estimates.

With respect, you’re wasting your time responding to inquiries from Immaculite and the rest of the Beastlie sisterhood about the tenuous future of Beauty and the Bust. It’s pretty obvious that the girls are in a panic over the prospect that DST might drive their beloved show’s ratings down even further. Although there’s clearly a causal relationship between DST and diminished television viewership, you’re talking to a bunch of uber fans whose primary fear is that they’re about to lose their weekly girlie buzz.

Before the DST issue arose, Immaculite was promoting B&B’s mucho Spoiler.com awards as grounds for renewing the show and simultaneously berating the Nielsens as being an inaccurate indicator of the show’s true viewership. Apparently, there’s a vast invisible audience over the airwaves that only manifests itself to Beastlies with the subliminal capacity to identify them. I assume that they’re also Spoiler.com addicts.

It’s pretty obvious that B&B’s declining audience of schoolgirls and spinsters will not be dissuaded from their belief that this show should go on forever. However, although DST may accelerate the trend, it’s becoming clear that B&B’s declining ratings are attributable to bad acting and worse scripts. So, notwithstanding your well reasoned explanation, I wouldn’t expect anything you’ve said to resonate with the Beastlies.

Jane Elliot

Wow. Where’s Holly with the popcorn?

Immaculate

@Tom

You’re such a douche. I’m not in panic mode at all. I like the show, but it doesn’t occupy my life, although being a fan of it, I at least have an excuse to be here to support. What’s your excuse for someone who persistently goes out of his way to mock the fan hood and the show itself except being a misogynistic pansy. Grow up.

KT

YAY!!!! This headline makes me so happy!!!! The only shows I watch that I have been truly concerned about this year are Hart and Nashville, so glad to see Hart as a likely renewal now!

Holly

Let’s see if this works…

Wow. Where’s Holly with the popcorn?

Been busy today… apparently missed some fun.

@Immaculate

Evidence that this [show ratings decreasing in the spring] is presently, or at least, relatively recently, a general pattern among shows.

Ultima’s right, first, it is a known reality that shows have lower ratings in the spring, and second that’s a lot of work to ask of someone to prove. However, if you want to check yourself, the Spotted Ratings website has an archive you can go through:
spottedratings.com/p/spotvault-index.html

Immaculate

@Holly

Yes, Holly he already explained himself. I countered with the notion that if this was the case for all shows, then it provides absolutely nothing extra to consider with respect to why a show should get renewed or terminated and it shouldn’t even be considered. It’s effectively an equalization factor. Only shows that drop more, or gain more than the average can be weeded out as either more likely to be cancelled or renewed, respectively, but that can be determined due to any baseline. In other words, falling ratings due to DST or better weather shouldn’t matter to ANY show.

Richard Steven Hack

I agree with Tom above and Ultima elsewhere in this thread.

BATB CURRENTLY has a better chance of renewal than TCD – which has NO CHANCE of renewal due to pathetic ratings barely halfway into its first season. ANYONE who believes TCD has ANY shot at renewal is simply delusional and operating entirely on some emotional agenda relative to the show (either they like the show or they’ve attached themselves to the notion that the show MUST survive because they think it must.)

That said, BATB has a season average of .65. This isn’t bad – for the CW. However, as others have pointed out, Daylight Savings Time has not hit and that’s going to drop the show by at least 6-7% in ratings.

More importantly, I continue to insist that the show is CRAP and that ALONE – as it did with Ringer – will cause its ratings to collapse in the spring over and above the DST effect. I insist that BATB’s ratings will fall to a seasonal average of .4-.5.

THAT is cancellation territory for a shot in its first season.

Cult of course is dead as a doornail, hardly any need to even mention it.

Robert’s analysis of HoD is correct. The show is stable far into its second season, its average so far is .56, which is less than BATB AT THE MOMENT. However, it’s more stable in week to week ratings than BATB has been. Most importantly it is closer to syndication, being in its second season.

Again, with a seasonal average of .56, if I were the CW I would cancel HoD, TOO! But I’m not them. And the CW exists in my view to produce properties for its parent companies to syndicate. It’s basically a laboratory to throw pilots at and hope some of them end up being profitable to the parent studios for some years.

Nikita is a lock for renewal regardless of the ratings.

We cannot be CERTAIN that HoD will be renewed due to syndication until it IS so renewed – just like Nikita. Last season’s Nikita predictions of cancellation were legitimate. Just how extreme the syndication requirement was for the CW was not as clear as it is now. If HoD is renewed, we will have a second data points establishing that even a low-rated show in its second season is going to be renewed – at least on the CW – because that is what the CW network is DESIGNED TO DO.

So HoD > BATB > TCD > Cult is the end result.

All of this other nonsense about how TCD is “good for Monday”, and BATB has “awards” or “international sales” is all irrelevant. All that really matters is ratings and syndication. Neither TCD or BATB have adequate ratings or any chance at syndication at this point.

The ONLY reason BATB might not be canceled is if the claim that the CW cannot put on enough new shows to replace it is true. And in my view that is purely speculative – again, until it actually happens. If it happens, I will acknowledge that the CW apparently had limits on how many shows they could cancel this season.

But I believe what matters is ad revenue and syndication. And in therefore I believe the CW WILL cancel any and ALL shows at a certain level of non-performance and lack of syndication potential. And BATB will clearly fit that criteria if its ratings drop further this spring.

Again, comparing BATB and TSC, as Robert did, is instructive. TSC was WAY ahead of BATB at end of its run, and got canceled anyway. Now it may be that the CW has learned that NO show is going to do well after TVD. And that’s quite possibly what has led them to consider the spinoff series, The Originals. In which case, BATB’s ratings in its current time slot are not relevant for two reasons.

First, because if NO show can do well after TVD, then that is the same as saying that BATB’s ratings are essentially what the show would do in ANY OTHER time slot.

Second, since The Originals will likely take the post-TVD slot next season, BATB will have to be moved elsewhere. Since TVD IS the best lead-in the CW has, I can’t see how BATB is likely to do much better anywhere else. Certainly if moved to Friday pre- or post-Nikita it’s going to do worse than it is now.

I suppose they could match it with with Arrow on another night or HoD on another night. Nonetheless, given that most shows drop a minimum of ten percent and frequently twenty percent season to season, the odds are that BATB seasonal average in a new season in ANY time slot will drop from its current .65 to somewhere around .5 – again, cancellation territory. And that’s from finale to premiere. Further drops would occur during another season, ending up around .3-.4 by spring. Granted, at that point it would be near syndication and could get the Nikita treatment.

The question remains, why bother? If the show drops further this spring to a season average of .5-.55, it will be no better than TCD. Why bother to renew it for another season only to see it drop to .3-.4 season average. At the END of a SECOND season, that might make sense for syndication a la Nikita. But a show still has to do decently IN its second season to get to that point.

A show has to MAKE MONEY in a SECOND season and get a decent season two season average to get a season three renewal for syndication purposes.

Nikita in season two had a season two average of .50 by its end. I doubt BATB is going to be able to reproduce that. And I don’t think the production studio is going to see BATB as having the same syndication potential as Nikita based on premise and cast, either.

Bottom line: If a show does not make ad revenue in season one AND season two, it will not be renewed for a season three regardless of syndication. And neither TCD nor BATB are doing sufficient ratings or will do sufficient ratings in season two, based on their season one ratings, to be qualify for a season three.

Nikita had a .9 average in season one, a .5 average in season two. Neither TCD nor BATB will ever be able to achieve those numbers which are likely minimums for syndication renewal to a season three.

Richard Steven Hack

Immaculate: “Only shows that drop more, or gain more than the average can be weeded out as either more likely to be cancelled or renewed, respectively, but that can be determined due to any baseline. In other words, falling ratings due to DST or better weather shouldn’t matter to ANY show.”

I’m inclined to agree IN GENERAL.

HOWEVER…If a show has ALREADY low ratings, the DST effect could TIP that show over into unprofitability.

Consider that TSC had MUCH better ratings than BATB (let alone TCD) last season and only dropped from a .7 to a .5 in its last five episodes beginning with the episode on March 29 – shortly after DST cut in. Theoretically, the CW should have allowed for that. But apparently they didn’t.

Perhaps it was because they were still laboring under the belief that TSC should have retained more of TVD’s lead-in. Perhaps they will still have that belief this season. If so, then BATB should be canceled with a .65 season average (which will be lower over the remaining episodes due to DST.)

If the CW has LEARNED that NO show is going to do well after TVD (except probably The Originals – which I suspect is why that spinoff has been developed), then they might cut BATB some slack.

BUT once you factor OUT TVD lead-in, where does that leave BATB? You can speculate that the show would do better in another time slot on a week night. Or you can speculate that the show’s ratings are what it WOULD do in any other time slot – if not worse. I tend toward the latter.

If you assume that BATB DOES retain SOME of TVD’s lead-in, and consider that the TVD lead-in is the best the CW has, then the odds are BATB would do WORSE in any other time slot with any other lead-in or even just affiliate lead-in. At best, it likely wouldn’t do any BETTER than it’s currently doing.

And then the question returns to: is a .65 average – which is likely to drop due to DST and quality issues over the next 8 episodes to a .5 average – good enough to give it a season two?

I just don’t see it.

Again, I think the ONLY reason BATB might have a shot at renewal is if the claim that the CW can’t AFFORD to cancel it is true. And I claim that is speculative.

Jamey

Anna….Cougar Town is not connected with Sony in anyway.

Richard Steven Hack

Robert: By the way, I don’t agree that there is a zero percent chance all three shows – HoD, TCD and BATB – will be canceled. I think there is a greater than zero chance – how much greater I can’t say – that all three will be canceled.

If I had to guess, I’d say a ten percent chance that HoD will be canceled. Nikita got a third season with a .5 season two average and currently HoD has a .56 season two average, so the odds are in favor of HoD – unless its average drops below .5 by end of the season. Even then, the syndication gods could rule.

But aside from cost issues, I think it’s at least ten percent possible the CW really will clean house this season.

Holly

@Immaculata,

Only shows that drop more, or gain more than the average can be weeded out as either more likely to be cancelled or renewed, respectively, but that can be determined due to any baseline. In other words, falling ratings due to DST or better weather shouldn’t matter to ANY show.

Yes and no. There is still a limit to how far a show can fall and still be worth renewal. If The Good Wife falls to consistently get a 1.3, it will be canceled even if Elementary falls by the same amount. If BatB falls to a 0.3 or 0.4, it won’t matter if TCD falls as well, they’ll just both get axed.

The End

@Richard Steven Hack

You’re pretty awesome at debates. No really, must of taken you ages to write all that, respect to you.