Tropical Depression BLAS (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010
800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
THERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE
A LITTLE WEAKER. BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT. A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL
DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.
BLAS REMAINS ON TRACK... NOW MOVING 270/11. A WEST OR SLIGHTLY
SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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