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Arsenal v Tottenham Preview – A Statistical Analysis

North London derbies have become ever more competitive in recent seasons, and expect that to continue when the two teams meet for the first time this season on Sunday.

The Gunners are on a slightly better run of form coming into the fixture, with four wins in the last six and one draw, to Tottenham’s three wins and three draws.

Only three points separate the two sides in the Premier League standings though, and history weighs heavy on one of the biggest derby fixtures in the world.

At the Emirates Arsenal are unbeaten in five against their North London rivals, with the last two games ending in 1-1 draws. Both teams scoring is in fact highly likely, with 69% of the last 48 meeting between the sides ending with each scoring.

In the absence of Harry Kane’s goals, Spurs have become draw specialists this season with three more than any other top five side in the league. And while a tight defence has meant they’ve conceded five fewer goals than Arsenal this season, they have also scored nine fewer goals in the Premier League.

Despite their resolute defending though, Arsenal have actually conceded fewer goals per game across the last 10 games in all competitions and scored an average of twice as many goals per game across the same period.

And its Tottenham’s wastefulness in front of goal that could really cost them this weekend, with an average of 9 shots per goal to Arsenal’s across those 10 games.

If Spurs are to win or grab a point they’ll have to rapidly find their feet in front of goal and continue their run of defensive form in the league.

Every indicator points to an Arsenal win this weekend, but in the heat of battle it wouldn’t be surprising if things didn’t go according to form.

5 thoughts on “Arsenal v Tottenham Preview – A Statistical Analysis”

Big derbies like this never come down to who is in better form, its about who turns up on the day… Lets hope the team that destroyed Chelsea pitches up tomoro, and lets hope the boss gets the selection right. COYG

Tottenham’s last three away games ended up with draws. This means they will tend to be defensive and rely on fast counter-attacks. We can beat them by using Sanchez as a central forward/ attacking midfielder in the first 65 – 70 minutes as usual, to wear them out and hopefully bang one or two goals into their goal. If that does not work, we can switch to the targetman attack style by including Giroud. We will win as long as the midfielders and the defenders stay focus and cautious of Tottenham’s counter-attacks and set pieces.

Stats don’t matter, really
Spurs are a very good side this season and Derbys are always tough

Its about what happens between 12pm-2pm on Sunday
Its about our players showing up and playing their best
Its about Wenger putting our best players on the field
Its about the fans cheering their behinds off for our team