Routetree Bloghttp://routetree.com/blog/Premier fantasy football articlesen-usMon, 19 Nov 2018 16:36:06 -0000Sleeper Watch: Carson Palmerhttp://routetree.com/blog/sleeper-watch-carson-palmer<p>Any good sleeper pick has two components: (1) people have to be down on him, and (2) you need a reason to believe they’re wrong.</p>
<p>Most sleeper picks fail the first test. You think Montee Ball is going to have a breakout year? Great. So does everyone else. A second-round pick in his second year, who is suddenly the unquestioned starter on the world’s best offense, is not exactly a bold pick. Everyone loves Ball, and you’ll have to pay for him if you want him.</p>
<p>The second is tricky too. Your eyes may tell you that Ryan Tannehill is underrated, but you need a reason to believe he’ll be better this year than last or you’ll overpay and it’ll cost your team dearly. </p>
<p>Which leads us to the first quarterback in our sleeper series: Carson Palmer.</p>
<p>What? Not impressed? Exactly! Your reaction to Palmer is precisely the reason he's a great sleeper candidate this year. He’s old, he’s boring, he’s a couple years removed from trying to retire, and he hasn’t had a fantasy season worth talking about since he was throwing to Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh. </p>
<p>But Palmer passes our test. The first part is easy: nobody likes Carson Palmer (he’s currently being drafted somewhere in the range of 25th among QBs, just behind guys like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco). </p>
<p>The second takes a little more thought. A first glance at the numbers is unimpressive. Palmer finished 17th among quarterbacks in standard scoring leagues, right above guys like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco. Nothing special. But even here, we should take note of something important in identifying sleepers: he’s being drafted about eight spots below where he finished last year. </p>
<p>Well, okay. Fantasy experts still think he’ll be worse. It’s not exactly unheard of for an older quarterback to slip due to age, right? But whatever his image, Palmer is only 34, which is not exactly ancient among quarterbacks (Payton Manning is 38, Tom Brady 37, Drew Brees 35, Tony Romo 34). </p>
<p>So what is it then? His situation must be worse, right? I mean, we haven’t heard of any big free agency splashes in Arizona, right? That offense is bad, and getting worse. Isn’t it?</p>
<p>Well, actually, no. There’s good reason to believe that the offense is on the rise. Last year was a year of big changes in Arizona with a monumental shift from KenWhisenhunt’s regime to Bruce Arians and his wide open passing game. And change was slow. Palmer did not exactly light it up over the first half of the season. In the first eight games, the team went 4-4, with Palmer surpassing 300 yards passing only once, in a road loss to St. Louis. And he managed just 10 TDs to 14 INTs, with 23 of the brutal 41 sacks he took last year. Yikes. </p>
<p>But things turned around after the team’s Week 9 bye. The Cardinals went 6-2 over that final stretch, and Palmer began to flourish in Arians’s passing scheme, which has produced some big fantasy years with guys like Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger. Palmer had 2,361 of his 4,274 passing yards in those last eight games, surpassing 300 yards four times and 400 yards twice. He added 14 TDs, and although he threw 8 picks, 4 of them were in the Cardinals’ Week 16 win at Seattle, the toughest defense in the toughest stadium. That was also Palmer’s only sub-200 yard game in the second half. On top of that, he saw a reduction in his sacks from a miserable 23 to a merely terrible 19. </p>
<p>So, he was substantially better in the second half. But that’s not all. As the giant sack number suggests, the offensive line was terrible at protecting Palmer last year. It’s been a weak spot for years, and the Cardinals took a punch to the gut when their 2013 first-round draft pick, guard Jonathan Cooper, who was to anchor the rebuilding of that line, broke his leg and was lost for all of last year. Things went south from there, and, well, Palmer spent a lot of time on his back. </p>
<p>This year, not only is the team hopeful that Cooper will be back to lock down the middle of that line (increasingly important as NFL pass rushes focus more on coming through the middle), but they made a huge score in free agency by bringing in left tackle Jared Veldheer from Oakland. Veldheer is a top tackle in his prime and, all of a sudden, for the first time in forever, the left side of Arizona’s line is rock solid. On top of that, Arizona has added depth all across the line, bringing in veterans like Max Starks to provide security and push the young starters. The weakest part of Arizona’s offense, and one critical to Palmer’s success, is now vastly improved. </p>
<p>And although it’s easy to forget given the lack of offense in Arizona prior to the arrival of Palmer and Arians (and over the first half of last year), this team is loaded at wide receiver. Larry Fitzgerald has battled minor injuries for the last couple of years, but he’s only 30, and he should continue to progress in Arians’s system along with Palmer. And in Michael Floyd, Fitzy now has the most worthy partner on the outside since Anquan Boldin left town. Floyd took a huge step forward in 2013, catching 65 balls for over 1,000 yards, doubling both his yardage and touchdown totals from his rookie year. He’s a dangerous, physically gifted WR, and a perfect complement to Fitzgerald. </p>
<p>Along with the weapons on the outside, Palmer also has an underrated receiving threat out of the backfield in Andre Ellington. Although Ellington was only a part-timer in that backfield (yielding substantial time, for reasons that I cannot fathom, to the likes of Rashard Mendenhall and Stepfan Taylor, who each averaged 3.2 yards per carry to Ellington’s 5.5), he still caught 39 balls on 57 targets for 371 yards. And even in limited attempts, Ellington proved that he’s a constant threat to take one the distance. With more playing time this year, he should see more looks in the passing game and help improve Palmer’s fantasy numbers.</p>
<p>So that’s the case. Palmer’s 2013 was better than you remember, particularly in the second half of the season in a new system; that system has a proven track record of producing big fantasy seasons for quarterbacks; the team greatly improved the weakest part of the offense, and one critical to the QB’s success; and Palmer’s surrounded by weapons. And, yes, let’s not forget, everybody hates him, so he’ll be cheap. He passes the sleeper test with flying colors. Go get him.</p>
http://routetree.com/blog/sleeper-watch-carson-palmerSleeper Watch: Kenny F***in' Britthttp://routetree.com/blog/sleeper-watch-kenny-f-britt<p>I'm going to tell you about a guy we haven't heard from in awhile. After a rookie year that showed a lot of promise, he averaged over 14 fantasy points per game in his second year, a pace that would have landed him 6th among all WRs had he not lost six games to injury. He started his third year even stronger: 271 yards and 3 TDs in his first two games. He was blowing up, the next great WR, despite less than greatness surrounding him on offense.</p>
<p>Then, it fell apart. More injuries, some trouble off the field, and his coach left town. He struggled to get on the field and, although he showed the occasional flash of his talent, he just never had enough reps to get it going. Everyone seemed to write him off, including the guys calling the plays. </p>
<p>Except now, for the second time in his career, everything has changed. Now he's back with his old coach, on a team that's not only loaded with young talent, but plays all its home games in a WR-friendly dome. His speed and hops are back, and he's just been named the starter on the opposite side from the first WR taken in last year's draft. It's all roses. </p>
<p>We're talking about Kenny Britt, of course. Britt has gone through enough trouble in Tennessee that people have forgotten what he did those first years in the league. Sure, some of it was his fault, and there are red flags to be aware of, but the bulk of his troubles were freak injuries, and the timing of Britt's problems suggest that Fisher departing Tennessee did not help things for him. So the fact that they're together again isn't trivial. And although St. Louis has not exactly been a WR haven, they have a solid core of young talent, including Tavon Austin and Brian Quick at receiver, Jared Cook at tight end, and a newly dangerous running game led by Zac Stacy. They are fast and play on a fast field, and, while Bradford might not be an elite QB, he has enough talent and arm to get the ball to his playmakers. Britt is going to get his chances. </p>
<p>And yet, fantasy players seem to have decided that he will not return to glory. It's fair, to a point. He had injuries and some trouble, so you can understand why most have decided that he's not worth the risk. Except for one thing: there's no risk! Britt is currently being drafted as about the 60th wide receiver on average. 60th! That's one-dollar range in your auction! He's a true sleeper, and despite his talent, and the fact that he was recently named the starter in St. Louis, he will cost you next to nothing. And on top of all that, although it seems like his arrival on the scene was forever ago, Kenny Britt is only twenty-five years old. </p>
<p>Britt is young, talented, and in the perfect situation for him. In short, he's a steal. Grab him and don't be afraid to start him on opening day.</p>http://routetree.com/blog/sleeper-watch-kenny-f-brittIt's Cold Again in Clevelandhttp://routetree.com/blog/its-cold-again-cleveland<p>The story out of Cleveland today is that Johnny Manziel is taking reps with the starters and looks great. Fine. But don’t touch him on draft day. In fact, until Josh Gordon is cleared to play, don’t touch anyone in Cleveland.</p>
<p>I get it. Manziel is exciting and apparently has amassed some enormous following, including NBA megastars. And his numbers—both rushing and passing—were insane in school. But I don’t care. I don’t care about his college numbers any more than I do about his weekends. Because look at what Josh Gordon did last year, and then at what everyone else on that roster did. Better yet, watch some tape of Gordon. Look at how he made something from nothing over and over again and ask what things will look like for Cleveland—29th in the league in yards per attempt even with Gordon—without him. Gordon put up his gaudy numbers—1646 yards, 9 touchdowns, 18.9 yards per catch—in just fourteen weeks. And those two weeks without him? The Browns managed 16 points and 550 yards. Combined.</p>
<p>Just look at the roster. Who’s the new number one WR on that team? Nate Burleson? Earl Bennett? Jordan Cameron, the team’s star tight end, is probably in line for a ton of catches, but he averages about eleven yards a catch to Gordon’s 18.9. Cameron is great, but he’s not there to do what Gordon did. And that’s the thing: no one can do what Gordon did for that team (and many fantasy teams). No one to make the miracle 95-yard touchdowns like he did. No one to take a nothing swing pass and break eight tackles to take it the distance like he did. Josh Gordon shone his light and made everybody warm, and now he’s (probably) gone, leaving Cleveland dark and cold once more.</p>
<p>Some experts, in projecting Manziel way too high (his ADP is about 20 as of this article depending on where you look), point not to the receiving core, or to Manziel’s college numbers, but to Ben Tate. They say Cleveland has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL (no argument), and now have an elite running back. This will take pressure off of Manziel, and open up the passing game.</p>
<p>Well, maybe, but there are good reasons to ignore that kind of talk. Sure, common sense says that things are easier for a quarterback if the defense is worried about the running game. But there is the common sense counter-argument too: a good running game will steal attempts from your QB. </p>
<p>More importantly, though, the numbers don’t give us any reason to believe that an improved running game will lead to fantasy success for the quarterback. For the most recent examples, we can look at the two teams who most improved their rushing attacks last year: the Raiders and Jets. Oakland saw arguably the biggest improvement in its run game between 2012 and 2013, from 3.8 YPC (tied for 23rd in the league) to 4.6 (good for 6th place). Yet you’d be hard pressed to argue that this opened things up for the passing game in 2013, when they saw their passing numbers plummet. Yes, they had a talent drop in 2013 as well (from Carson Palmer to a mix of Terrelle Pryor and Matt McGloin), but their offense is hardly a strong case for the old myth about an improved running game. The Jets were a similar story. Despite the dramatic rise in their rushing numbers last year (118 YPG, 3.8 YPC in 2012 to 134 YPG, 4.4 YPC in 2013), it was not enough to pull their passing game out of the cellar.</p>
<p>And the converse is true too: guys like Manning and Brees have consistently amassed monster numbers without a running game, and ask Aaron Rodgers how much his running backs have “opened things up” for him over the years. And it’s not just that these QBs steal carries from their running backs: even on a yards-per-carry basis, Denver, New Orleans, and Detroit—the best passing offenses in the league last year—came in at 17th, 26th, and 20th, respectively. San Diego, Atlanta and Cincinnati, too, boasted top-10 passing offenses despite struggles on the ground. So while the guys in the booth might drone on about the importance of a running game to a quarterback, don’t let that nonsense cloud your judgment on draft day. </p>
<p>For Cleveland, this means that even if you believe that Ben Tate is the answer for their running game (and I have my doubts about that, too, as I will address in coming days), those gains won’t translate to Manziel’s passing numbers, and certainly won’t make up for the loss of Josh Gordon, one of the best receivers in the world. Gordon’s 2013 was incredible, and he did it without much help from anyone. He carried that offense and now he’s gone, and unless you think Johnny Manziel is a once-in-a-century talent, save your cap room for something better. </p>
<p>And one more thing: don’t forget that Johnny Manziel didn’t do anything alone at A&M. He was surrounded by NFL talent at the most important positions to a quarterback’s success: receiver Mike Evans and tackle Jake Matthews were both taken ahead of Manziel in this year’s draft, and tackle Luke Joeckel, who protected Manziel during his 2012 Heisman campaign, was taken second overall in last year’s draft. This is not a guy who has ever had to do it by himself. At least, that is, until now. </p>
http://routetree.com/blog/its-cold-again-clevelandAlert: Andrew Luck overratedhttp://routetree.com/blog/alert-andrew-luck-overrated<p>I’m not saying that Andrew Luck isn’t good; I have no opinion yet. But there still is no statistical evidence that Andrew Luck is a good passer. </p>
<p>Your eyeballs may say different, your gut might tell you he’s clutch, but the raw numbers say he’s average at best. (And the scouts’ eyeballs might tell you different too, but these are the same guys that gave you Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler and a litany of others. If you want to trust their say-so then God bless you.) </p>
<p>I know this pisses all of you off to no end, but facts are facts. Let’s take a look at Luck’s numbers from last season. (All amongst QBs with at least 200 passing attempts.) </p>
• <p>13th in total passing yards. (Just below Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Tony Romo. And just above Eli Manning.) </p>
• 16th in passer rating. </p>
• 24th in completion percentage. </p>
• 26th in yards per attempt. (Below Geno Smith and Christian Ponder!) </p>
• 14th and 16th amongst Football Outsiders two key metrics that attempt to grade players based on game situation, down and distance, and strength of completion. </p>
<p>I know what you are thinking: “Fantasy points is the only statistic that matters. And depending on scoring system, Luck had the 7th most fantasy points last year.” </p>
<p>That’s true. But keep in mind: </p>
• In average points per game, the inclusion of Aaron Rodgers and Nick Foles pushes Luck down to 9th best. He’s one point away from being 12th. And one point away from being 5th.
<p>Luck’s decent fantasy numbers come entirely as a result of his running ability. While that is a part of who he is, and that isn’t likely to disappear, just make sure you understand that you’re drafting something more akin to Cam Newton and NOT Peyton Manning. </p>
<p>And understand that while his weapons have improved from last season, his passing metrics say he could take a step back in fantasy points, especially if he dings an ankle. </p>
http://routetree.com/blog/alert-andrew-luck-overratedHog Reporthttp://routetree.com/blog/hog-report<p><h3>Miami's offensive line will have 5 new starters</h3></p>
<p>The Miami Dolphins will begin this season with five different starters on the offensive line. This should be positive change since last year’s line was an unmitigated dumpster fire both on and off the field. </p>
<p>The diligent fantasy owner/GM, is wondering: How good will the new crew be? </p>
<p>On paper, they figure to be pretty good. </p>
<p>• Miami signed elite left tackle Branden Albert away from KC. </p>
<p>• They used their first round pick on right tackle Ja’Waun James. </p>
<p>• And then they signed solid right guard Shelley Smith for a hefty sum. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey suffered a pretty serious injury this offseason that will either keep him sidelined or severely limit his effectiveness until at least midseason. But even without Pouncey, the Dolphin line figures to be much improved and could approach “above average” status. </p>
<p><h3>KC's Offensive Line is due for a setback</h3></p>
<p>What do Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Scwartz all have in common (besides the fact that they are three people who have never been in my kitchen)? </p>
<p>They’re three starting offensive linemen that the KC Chiefs lost in free agency this offseason. Altogether, they will earn approximately $20 million next season. </p>
<p>The Chiefs signed one free agent named Jeff Linkenbach for less than $1 million to replace them. </p>
<p>Look for the Chiefs running game to take a major step backwards as a result. </p>
<p><h3>Watch out for an improved offensive line in the ATL</h3></p>
<p>This might be the most improved offensive line in the league with three major upgrades.</p>
<p>• LT Sam Baker returns after missing most of the year to injury.</p>
<p>• RT Jake Matthews was drafted with the 6th pick overall. </p>
<p>• LG Jon Asamoah was lured away from KC to play RG. </p>
<p>Each of these three players are approximately a $5-$7 million upgrade from what they had in 2013. </p>
<p>In addition, an offensive line’s best friend is a legit WR deep threat. The Falcons get WR Julio Jones back from injury. His presence will keep safeties out of the box and enable the running game to more easily take hold. He will also make defenses pay for blitzing, which means they won’t very often.</p>http://routetree.com/blog/hog-reportHue Jackson Tidbitshttp://routetree.com/blog/hue-jackson<p>I never realized (or failed to remember) that Hue Jackson's first job as offensive coordinator was with the 2003 Washington squad coached by Steve Spurrier. His QB corps consisted of Patrick Ramsey, Rob Johnson and Tim Hasselbeck. That fiasco led to them all getting fired. </p>
<p>I was also surprised to learn that Hue's second job as coordinator was with the 2007 Atlanta Falcons under Bobby Petrino. And again, we all remember the fiasco involving Michael Vick going to prison, the head coach sprinting for the exit and Joey Harrington and Chris Redman swirling down the drain. </p>
<p>His next big break came in Oakland. We all remember him trading for Carson Palmer and getting fired, but do you recall that in the season and a half preceding that, the Raiders actually went 11-7 with Jason Campbell as their signal caller? </p>
<p>All of this probably means nothing, but it is kind of interesting so we thought we'd pass it along.</p>http://routetree.com/blog/hue-jacksonCarson Palmer: Deep League Specialhttp://routetree.com/blog/carson-palmer-deep-league-special<p>Do you ever wonder what Tom Brady’s career might look like if he was surrounded by last year’s shoddy personnel for the entire duration? And what might happen if he was plagued by injuries and played for second-rate organizations during the same span? </p>
<p>Is it possible his career might mirror Carson Palmer’s? </p>
<p>Maybe not. But maybe so. Consider that in 2005, if any GM in the league were to be given the option of having Brady or Palmer, they likely would have taken the former number one overall pick, the same guy who had nearly captured an MVP in only his third season (Palmer). </p>
<p>But then Palmer had the ACL. And then he had the elbow thing. </p>
<p>Remember how laughable the Bengals’ organization used to be pre-Palmer? And even towards the end of his Cincinati tenure, he deemed the organization so fatally flawed that he actually preferred to be traded to the Raiders. I’ll say that again: The Bengals were so institutionally unsound that Palmer thought that the Oakland Raiders were an upgrade. </p>
<p>Wow. </p>
<p>Here are some things to keep in mind in 2014 deep leagues: </p>
<p>• Palmer is still only 34 which is a young man by QB standards.</p>
<p>• In 2011, despite getting traded to the Raiders well into the season, he was pretty solid considering the circumstances.</p>
<p>• In 2012, despite the Raiders emaciated roster (Denarius freaking Moore was his leading WR), he finished as the 16th best fantasy QB overall.</p>
<p>• And last year, in the Cardinals’ inaugural season learning Bruce Arians’ new offense, and with Larry Fitz nursing a pulled hammy most of the year, Palmer averaged over 19 points per game during the last half of the season. (That’s roughly the equivalent of 11th best fantasy QB.)</p>
<p>Could we be looking at a late career surge by Palmer? Please consider:</p>
<p>• The whole Arizona roster will be more comfortable in Arians’ system. </p>
<p>• Larry Fitz should be healthier. </p>
<p>• Michael Floyd, a former 13th overall pick is now in his third year. </p>
<p>• And most importantly, the Cardinal offensive line is greatly improved. (The Cardinals splurged on a left tackle, free agent acquisition Jared Velheer. And last year’s first round pick, right guard Jonathon Cooper, is returning from injury after missing his entire rookie year.)</p>
<p>Is it crazy to think that with a vast upgrade in his surroundings, that maybe Carson Palmer can party like it's 2005?</p>http://routetree.com/blog/carson-palmer-deep-league-specialDenny Green: You wanna crown Marc Trestman?http://routetree.com/blog/denny-green-you-wanna-crown-marc-trestman<p>Sometimes I question my own IQ. I’m crazy about Marc Trestman, yet I can’t figure out why. </p>
<p>With roughly the same roster, Trestman’s Bears won two fewer games than the previous year. (The Bears won 10 games under Lovie in 2012.) </p>
<p>And Trestman’s Bears had a point differential of -33 compared to the previous year’s +98. That is a 131 point drop from the previous year. In point differential terms: Lovie’s Bears were comparable to this year’s Patriots team. </p>
<p>I cannot think of a recent example of a coach being lauded for having less success than his predecessor. And I am the main culprit. </p>
<p>I get that the Bears had the second best offense in the league last year and that Trestman was a big part of the reason why. And I understand that 90% of everything we do is looked through a fantasy football, offense-only prism. But as we prepare for NFL 2014, should we be thinking the Bears have their next great coach? Or should fans be a little nervous in the Windy Apple? </p>
Email me at jjp@routetree.com and let me know what you think.
http://routetree.com/blog/denny-green-you-wanna-crown-marc-trestmanTo Thug or Not to Thughttp://routetree.com/blog/thug-or-not-thug<p>Five of the top 10 fantasy wide receivers last year were guys with “character” concerns. In case you weren’t a math major in college, that’s half. </p>
<p>With this in mind, maybe instead of downgrading receivers who’ve exhibited questionable judgment, maybe we should be moving them up our boards. </p>
<p><strong>Think about it, if they have made it to the NFL despite doing everything wrong the whole way, don’t you suppose that they must possess monster-sized, elite talent? </strong> </p>
<p>Below is the list of the top 10 receivers in overall fantasy points last year. We’ve scoured the internet to let you know which ones are the malcontents. </p>
<p><strong>1. Josh Gordon</strong> </p>
<p>Gordon missed the first two games of 2013 for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. He also failed three drug tests prior to entering the NFL.</p>
<p><strong>2. Demaryius Thomas</strong></p>
<p>Clean.</p>
<p><strong>3. Calvin Johnson</strong></p>
<p>He's squeaky clean as far as we know. But with what we know about talented WRs and considering how good he is, is there any doubt that he's hiding something huge?</p>
<p><strong>4. A.J. Green</strong></p>
<p>Clean.</p>
<p><strong>5. Dez Bryant</strong></p>
<p>Good ol’ Dez. He even assaulted his own mother. Of course, his mom is only 14 years his senior, so they are basically the same age, and she’s been arrested for selling crack cocaine twice, which is way more times than my mother. (Reader poll: Would you prefer your best player to be addicted to crack cocaine or regular cocaine and why?)</p>
<p><strong>6. Brandon Marshall</strong></p>
<p>BMarsh is also a pretty bad man with a long rap sheet filled with domestic violence. The bright side is that none of those charges involved the lady that gave birth to him. So there’s that. He also has that fiasco with Josh McDaniels going for him.</p>
<p><strong>7. Antonio Brown</strong></p>
<p>Seems like a decent guy.</p>
<p><strong>8. Eric Decker</strong></p>
<p>I have a hunch that Eric was the real Ice Truck Killer, but for now we’re saying he’s clean.</p>
<p><strong>9. Alshon Jeffery</strong></p>
<p>First of all, his ancestors spelled the end of their last name “ery” instead of “rey.” He also slipped in the draft despite enormous talent because he was overweight and suspected to be lazy. As far as being a bad dude goes, this isn’t terrible, but if you can’t stay in shape when millions of dollars are riding on it, you must be so used to getting by on sheer talent that you can’t contemplate any other way. </p>
<p><strong>10. DeSean Jackson</strong></p>
<p>He’s been reported to have gang affiliations and he’s been flashing gang signs. I guess now we know why he had this breakout season. </p>
<p>And history seems to support the notion of the malcontent WR being an indicator of success. Remember Randy? T.O.? We thought Marvin was a steady-Eddie, but even he might have shot someone <a href=" http://www.gq.com/sports/profiles/201002/marvin-harrison">[Link to GQ article implicating Marvin.]</a> Michael Irvin had that propensity for crack and hookers. And remember how Keyshawn got “Keyshawned”? </p>
<p>With all of this in mind, you might want to consider Justin Blackmon, Plax, Santonio Holmes, DeSean again, or even Aaron Hernandez. (Is anyone else rooting that he gets off on a technicality? No? I’m the only one besides the Pouncey twins. Me neither then.) <a href=" http://nfl.si.com/2013/07/15/maurkice-pouncey-apologizes-free-hernandez-hat/">[Link to Pouncey twins wearing ‘Free Hernandez’ hats.]</a></p>
http://routetree.com/blog/thug-or-not-thugAlex Smith was pretty decent in 2013http://routetree.com/blog/alex-smith-was-pretty-decent-2013<p>The fantasy offseason starts now. And because the Chiefs have nothing to play for in week 17, Alex Smith is the first player we can begin to evaluate. </p>
<p>It might surprise you to learn that going into week 17, Smith has the 13th most fantasy points for QBs. If add 20 more points to his total, he's virtually the same as Andrew Luck, Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger. If you take 20 points away, he falls to Colin Kaepernick and Ryan Tannehill territory. </p>
<p>Amongst QBs that played in at least 8 games, Smith averages the 16th most fantasy points per game. </p>
<p>In most leagues Alex Smith was unimportant, but in 2 QB leagues he was a valuable piece of someone's team and he greatly exceeded expectations. </p>
<p>Maybe most importantly, as we look to next year, Smith improved as the season went on. He averaged nearly 2 points more per game in his last 8 games than in his first 8, and his yards per pass went from 6.2 to 6.7. </p>
</p>The bottom line is that Alex Smith was very decent in 2013 and he was on an upward trajectory. He did all this while on a team that didn't throw much, milked the clock a lot and had no weapons on the outside. (And he only had one rushing TD, despite the 6th most QB rushing yards.) </p>
<p>Next year, he will be in his second year with Andy Reid and the Chiefs will likely improve their wide receivers. </p>
http://routetree.com/blog/alex-smith-was-pretty-decent-2013