Seeing Florida game with a +10 for the Hogs. I've said for months that we win in the swamp. I think we can easily beat a 10 pt spread.

thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.

Great weekend of football, have 20 units on the line (more than normal). Hopefully make up for last Sunday. Good luck this weekend everyone

another tough one here. 3-3-1 for -3 units. I need to stick to SEC. Been doing pretty well in there. Went 3-1-1 this weekend for +5 units. Think I did well last weekend. Anything outside of SEC though has been killing me.

WAS +6.5 @ Stanford- Really high on this WAS team, but I think I'm a bit lower on Stanford than I really should be.

The spreadsheets like Iowa State +9 v. TX, but they also like Stanford to cover -6.5 v. Wash. Stanford fits in one subset trend that has hit on 9 out of 9. Apparently, a lot of other people like ISU, because it was ISU +7.5 when I just looked it up.

Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.

Vader, the only thing that jumps out to me, is that it picks favorites. The only one it didn't, was a one point dog, and depending on where that game is, it could actually be a favorite, but the home point advantage pushed it into dog territory. I don't know if it has been this way since you started, but just something to look at. I'm not saying it's wrong at all, it could be dead on every one of them. Just something I noticed.

Yes, you are correct, and thanks for pointing out that tendency. Build out takes a lot of time, so I haven't had time to cover all angles. I've started trying to build another set of sheets to look for dogs, but I haven't gotten that done yet. It's basically leaving half of the really good games un-discovered. It also has a tendency toward home teams, but that is just the way the numbers are playing out. It's apparently easier to find edges for home teams than for road teams.

One of the biggest pains in the arse about it is that the spreadsheets are so massive that I have to split them up, and it takes a while to open the larger ones. One set that did most of the data manipulation ended up being 5 files at 200MB each. I ended up streamlining them and breaking them up into 10 files of 90MB each to make them easier to handle. One of these days, I'm going to have to learn how to build a database to help with that problem, but I just really like the result summaries that I can build with spreadsheets. I also think I'll be able to find 7 or 8 games each week that should hit at around 70+%, so I don't have a great sense of urgency to finish building out a set to look for dogs. It's also faster and easier to add filters to what I already have, so I'm still looking for good sources of downloadable data to filter the numbers. I should be able to filter the data using red zone efficiency, 1st down efficiency, and quarterback ratings after this week (although it will take a few weeks to build up data on those filters).

What do you guys think of LSU-miss state and Georgia-Tenn? On the fence on the favs for those two.

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash. With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game. Thanks for the injury updates! Is there a good place that consolidates injury information? It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.

Interesting GOY plays I can take on my site, what do y'all think about these?

NC St. PK vs. UNCBAY -9 vs. Texas

Both look very interesting. I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor. Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks. These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash. With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game. Thanks for the injury updates! Is there a good place that consolidates injury information? It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.

I haven't found a consolidated place for injury updates. I look at vegasinsider on the odds page and below each game it gives some injury updates. Also, espn will give some. When I narrow down to the games I want to play, I read the espn game previews and even the conversations. The conversations are usually fans mouthing off but some actually give some good pointers about their team and also mention some injuries the national press don't pick up on.

Both look very interesting. I'd give an edge to NC St. and a big edge to Baylor. Baylor has HUGE mismatches with TX in most areas of interest, and I doubt that TX will close those gaps in the next few weeks. These are obviously gut answers and without spreadsheet data, but I like both.

I like OU over TCU and lean Stanford over Wash. With Gurley probably hurt, I'd probably sit out the GA game. Thanks for the injury updates! Is there a good place that consolidates injury information? It can be a pain to try to find more than just a one or two word blurb for that kind of info on a large number of plays.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.

Rutgers has the 93rd ranked passing D against SMU's 11th ranked passing O, Rutgers stats are probably padded (their passing D is probably worse than their ranking) after facing our one-dimensional O w/o BA, SMU has faced stiffer opponents, and the power ranking systems are split on the game. I'm not advocating taking SMU, but it might be a game to skip. I like GA St. +55 b/c I don't think it's Bama's style to run up the score that high, and I like Ill.

Back to widespread's question about Wash/Stanford, I'm thinking that Sarkisian being a prime candidate for the USC job might be a bit of a distraction, so I'm more inclined to go with the spreadsheet lean toward Stanford.

Yeah, I think I'm going to shy away from this game. Stanford looked too good last week and for whatever reason I've become biased towards WAS. I'm also developing a dark horse bias for Baylor. I think they're legit.

Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.

Baylor looks legit, but they've dined on a steady diet of cupcakes up to this point. They're the #1 passing O, #5 rushing O, #1 total O, #1 scoring O, and their D stats aren't bad. They're the #2 scoring D, #25 rushing D, and #30 passing D. W. VA will be by FAR the best opponent they've faced, so this week will give us a better feel for whether Baylor is for real. I think they are.

Is the o/u for Baylor-wva 64? If so then seems like over is the bet. If Baylor blows them out they will score 64 by themselves. If wva can score on baylor then they should easily top 64 combined. I don't see any defense in this game.

Like it.

The total I'm in love with though is u56 SC/KY. Stone cold lead pipe lock of the century if they existed.

thm oh boys mite b redy to beat an ole gatr. I mite beg an brrw frm hogvil ole loan. Ole bret will hav them ole boys redy to go. It mire be good of an ole dime ifn you can stil afgrd shoes for them yunguns. Good luck fellers who betted them ole hogs.

Arkansas (+11) @ Florida -- 5* - Upset alert for me here. Saw good things from us against aggies. Florida a little overrated IMO. Think we goes down there and keep this one close.

Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee -- 2* - Tennessee has tough time keeping up with good O's.

LSU (-9.5) @ Miss St -- 2* - LSU will not be happy after that loss. Look for them to take it out on a bad Miss St. Team

Auburn (+2.5) vs Ole Miss -- 1* - Pretty torn here. Think Ole Miss better talent but Auburn has improved every week and they have had an extra week to prepare. Also at home. Think this one goes down to the wire.

South Carolina (-21) vs Kentucky -- 1* - Night game at home after a close call on the road. I look for them to be ready. Kentucky no offense. 1* because it's a lot of points.

Vanderbilt (-1.5) vs Mizzou -- 1* - Have seen Vandy put up some good fights already, will be Mizzou's first real competition this year. Again, night game at home for Vandy. they know this is a must win, like them here.

Arkansas ML (+345) -- .5* - Again, upset alert. Think we give Florida all they can take. We looked good and Allen will be back for second straight week. More reps, more comfortable, should be better here. Also, Florida offense not that impressive, our D line pretty good. Think this one stays close.

Second favorite sport has begun. Base most of my picks off a back-to-back system I've been gathering stats on covering the last two years. Follow some trends on there. 1* = 1 unit, 2* = 2 units, etc. I will tell you whether it's a B2B spreadsheet play or just a normal play.

Last year Leafs were 4-5 in B2B situations (not too bad). However, when those games were on the road they were 2-4. Also, teams that won the first road game of b2b road games went on to lose the second road game 65% of the time. Side note, out of the Leafs 5 losses last year in B2B games, 4 of them came by 2 goals or more (hence why i'm taking a shot at the Flyers -1.5).

In regards to totals, 6 of the 9 Leafs B2B games last year went O5.5 goals.