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Ovide Lamontagne navigates tricky road to New Hampshire governorship

Republican presidential hopefuls are aiming to win his stamp of approval in 2102. |
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Merrill, who was Lamontagne’s general consultant in 2010, is Romney’s senior New Hampshire adviser. Duprey, a GOP national committeeman, has said Lamontagne “would make an excellent governor” — Duprey’s wife, Susan, is an aide to Ann Romney.

Lamontagne was an early backer of Mitt Romney’s 2008 bid, but if he were to sign on with the former Massachusetts governor again, he would risk angering the ideological conservatives who distrust the front-runner on an array of core issues.

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Kevin Smith, a conservative activist who is flirting with a bid for governor, could seize on that fissure, operatives say. In fact, while Lamontagne chose a more conciliatory tone in reacting to Gov. John Lynch’s retirement announcement, Smith fashioned himself as the fresh-faced outsider, taking a not-so-subtle shot at “career politicians.”

If Lamontagne were to pick a candidate other than Romney, one with whom he feels a more ideological kinship, he would risk alienating the independents he’ll need in the general election.

“At the beginning of the primary, I expected Ovide to eventually endorse Rick Santorum. But now, Ovide risks looking nonmainstream if he endorses a candidate deemed marginal,” said one GOP operative who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly.

Merrill said it is far from guaranteed Lamontagne will naturally favor Romney again.

“Ovide knows and respects Mitt a great deal, but he knows other folks in the race. He would tell you every race is different. This is a different cycle this time, so he wants to look at it with a fresh set of eyes,” he said.

Democrats are also eager to see where Lamontagne lands, in case they can use an endorsement as a weapon against him.

The state party was quick to draw similarities between him and Rick Perry earlier this month, when the Texas governor ventured to the state for his turn at a Lamontagne house party.

A volunteer dressed as a pea pod handed out leaflets portraying Lamontagne and Perry as “two peas in a pod” on Wall Street reform, corporate taxes and education policy. Two of the latest public polls show Perry treading water in the first-in-the-nation primary state, recording just single digits.

“We’re surprised that he isn’t going to endorse any of the presidential candidates, since he clearly endorses their tea party agenda,” said New Hampshire Democratic Party spokeswoman Harrell Kirstein.

The fluid polling also demonstrates the other salient risk Lamontagne faces in endorsing this early: picking the wrong horse.

Jumping on a losing bandwagon wouldn’t necessarily inflict a serious wound to his own endeavor, but it could provide a symbolic opening for an opponent to frame Lamontagne as a candidate past his time.

“He’ll have almost a year to make his case to Republican primary voters before next September,” Burnett said, noting that the race won’t really begin in earnest until after the presidential primary. “Whether he endorsed or who he endorsed, I don’t know if that’s going to make much of a difference to a broad scale of voters.”