Donate

Archive for May, 2010

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: what they should be worrying about, bashing in the Bayou, Florida goes to court, Oklahoma looks good for the GOP, Ohio tries to involve citizens and Iowa needs more citizens.

The Washington Examiner’s David Freddoso writes, “In the run-up to November, everybody is wondering whether Republicans can retake the House of Representatives this year. They should really be wondering whether the GOP can take back the Indiana House of Representatives and the New York state Senate. U.S. House races will determine who controls Congress until 2012, but state-level races for legislature and governor this fall could determine who controls Congress through 2022. Next year, states will redraw their legislative and congressional district lines based on the results of the U.S. census. And in most states, the party in power gets to draw the map to its own advantage. This year, it’s generally agreed that Republicans will make gains. If they win a few key, competitive races, their control over redistricting could increase dramatically. And if Democrats lose a few key races, their control could diminish just as dramatically.”

The Daily Advertiser in Lafayette, Louisiana opines, “Although the upcoming redistricting session for lawmakers is still months away in early 2011, redistricting is already rankling legislators now, and the arguments are spilling out into the current regular session. The Legislature decides lines for its own seats and the state’s U.S. House seats, among other elected districts. This time is expected to be particularly contentious, because of post-Hurricane Katrina population shifts and because Louisiana is predicted to lose one of its seven congressional seats. ‘It’s going to be the most agonizing, difficult process we’re going to go through for the remainder of the term, or at least tied up there with the budget,’ said House Speaker Jim Tucker.”

“Two members of Congress want a court to remove a citizen initiative on congressional redistricting from Florida’s Nov. 2 ballot. U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville, and Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, announced Tuesday that they had filed the case in state Circuit Court in Tallahassee,” the Associated Press reports. “They argue the ballot summary for Amendment 6 is deceptive although it already has been cleared by the Florida Supreme Court.”

Jim Geraghty of NRO gets “Pat McFerron, director of survey research at Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates, and the ‘Sooner Survey’ offer[ing] these thoughts: ‘While there are still months to go, it is very clear that 2010 should be a Republican year in Oklahoma. With redistricting just around the corner, and the fact that this shift appears to be a fundamental shift along ideological lines as opposed to being based on personalities, one is left to ponder if there is a longterm future for the Democratic Party in Oklahoma other than to fill the minority party role of watchdog, and only winning significant races in the case of scandal or other unusual circumstances. Given the data we have today, that seems the most likely outcome.’”

“A much-discussed proposal to allow public input into the politically charged redistricting process was approved by an Ohio House committee yesterday, this time with very little discussion,” according to the Columbus Dispatch. “House Joint Resolution 15, a plan to revamp how state legislative districts are drawn, was approved on a 7-6 party-line vote by the House Elections and Ethics Committee.”

“Some 2010 Census advertisements invite people to ‘paint a new portrait of America.’ For Iowa, some of that ‘painting’ could be redrawing its U.S. congressional districts — minus one. Today, Iowa has five districts … which covers 32 counties in western Iowa. But political forecasters are suggesting the census — which uses population numbers to divvy up the 435 U.S. Congress seats among the states — is going to mean one less seat for Iowa.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here

A much-discussed proposal to allow public input into the politically charged redistricting process was approved by an Ohio House committee yesterday, this time with very little discussion.

House Joint Resolution 15, a plan to revamp how state legislative districts are drawn, was approved on a 7-6 party-line vote by the House Elections and Ethics Committee.

GOP Reps. John Adams of Sidney and Robert Hackett of London both said they felt “out of the loop” because of the bill’s sudden emergence for a committee vote.

The resolution now faces an uncertain fate. Passing new rules for drawing legislative and congressional district boundaries would require merging the House measure with competing legislation sponsored by state Sen. Jon Husted, R-Kettering. Both chambers would have to pass a compromise version – all within a matter of days before the summer break.

U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown and Mario Diaz-Balart have filed a lawsuit seeking to block a proposed constitutional amendment aimed at overhauling how congressional boundaries are drawn.

Brown, D-Jacksonville, and Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, earlier this year testified before legislative committees against the FairDistricts proposal, Amendment 6 on the November ballot. The lawsuit, filed late Monday in Leon County Circuit Court, echoes the lawmakers’ testimony that the measure misleads voters and could hurt minority representation in Congress.

“Amendment 6 is riddled with inconsistencies and, if passed, would set unworkable standards in drawing districts,” said Diaz-Balart, a four-term congressman who served 14 years in the Legislature.

The lawsuit is the latest swipe in what has emerged as a steady barrage of exchanges between the state’s political parties and allied organizations divided over the Legislature’s 2012 redrawing of district lines for legislative and congressional seats. Redistricting is likely to shape partisan political fortunes across Florida for the decade ahead.

The redrawing of political district lines can be among the most arcane topics for Capitol outsiders, chock full of discussions about maps, voting populations and demographics data. But inside the Capitol, it can be among the most heated debates and the most personal, deciding someone’s political survival.

Though the upcoming redistricting session for lawmakers is still months away in early 2011, it’s already rankling legislators now, and the arguments are spilling out into the current regular session, especially in the House.

The political districts are redrawn every 10 years with the release of new census data. The Legislature decides lines for its own seats and the state’s U.S. House seats, among other elected districts. This time is expected to be particularly contentious because of post-Hurricane Katrina population shifts and because Louisiana is predicted to lose one of its seven congressional seats.

“It’s going to be the most agonizing, difficult process we’re going to go through for the remainder of the term, or at least tied up there with the budget,” said House Speaker Jim Tucker, R-Terrytown.

Welcome to this week’s edition of “REDMAP Rundown,” a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s “REDMAP Rundown,” Norquist talks political investments, we hear more about why state races matter more than ever and in the states: Pennsylvania voting can change your life, Texas sees changes coming, Florida (and national) Democrats continue to fear the force, and the Delaware GOP is taking advantage of the national mood.

Grover Norquist writes, “Conservatives face a dilemma that can become an opportunity. The 2010 election will decide whether America continues to careen toward a future somewhere between France and Greece or puts on the brakes, stops the bleeding, and earns a pause that allows the forces of freedom to begin the rebuilding. November 2010 not only gives Republicans the opportunity to recapture the House by winning a net 40 seats and strengthening their position in the Senate to guarantee the ability to filibuster on any issue even if one or two Republicans go ‘wobbly,’ but the 37 gubernatorial races, 1,159 state senate seats, and 4,958 house seats at stake will decide who writes the redistricting lines for the U.S. Congress and the state legislatures themselves. If Republicans can win 107 key state legislative races in just 16 states they will fully control the drawing of nine new congressional districts awarded during 2011 reapportionment. A victory in the 107 key races would affect the redrawing of maps in five states projected to lose six congressional districts during 2011 reapportionment, which could ultimately result in a minimum of 20 new Republican U.S. House seats for the next 10 years. Ed Gillespie, who is organizing the effort to win state legislative seats through the Republican State Leadership Committee, points out that it will cost Republicans 31.5 million non-federal dollars today to win those contested state legislative seats that will create safer Republican House seats that would otherwise cost 255 million federal dollars to hold over the next decade. (This is about as good an investment as one can make in politics.)

“According to the early projections for this year’s census, a major partisan realignment is again in the offing,” writes Peter Roff for U.S. News and World Reports. “Most political forecasters are now looking seriously at the possibility that Republicans will win back control of Congress this year. They are seeing the forest but not the trees. The real battle to determine the nation’s political alignment for at least the next decade is happening down ballot and below the radar. By law, the results of the 2010 census will lead to a reshuffling of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. And this year’s elections will in many cases determine who will have the authority to draw each state’s new congressional map, which, in turn, will shape the political battlefield until the next census in 2020. Both parties are girding for the fight, but the GOP is poised to emerge with its strongest hand in decades.”

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports, “Democrats have controlled the chamber for more than three years, but that could change in November. The party holds an edge of only 104-99, and with polls showing that Republicans could do well this year both in Pennsylvania and nationally, Republicans are bent on recapturing power. ‘Given the national mood and the House districts that will be “in play” this November,’ said Harrisburg-based Republican political strategist Charlie Gerow, ‘there’s no question that Republicans believe they have a very good shot at regaining control of the state House.’”

We weighed in on PA Republicans making their job a little easier: “With support for Democrat policies slipping and voters at all levels throwing their support behind the GOP, Republicans marked the 56th and 57th state legislative special election victories [Tuesday] night, since President Barack Obama was elected. In Pennsylvania’s 138th House District, Republican Marcia Hahn defeated Democrat Cory D. Miller and in the 147th House District, Republican Marcy Toepel was victorious over Democrat Bob Dodge.”

“Voting in today’s mid-term primary election can change your life, [Pennsylvania] political officials say. This election will help decide who will represent you in Washington D.C. Even though this year is not a high-profile election like the presidential year, it is just as important. Because of this year’s Census, this election has deep, complex political implications. Winners of state Senate and House races will be able to redistrict national congressional district boundaries based on the information provided by the Census. The redistricting process is used to determine representation in government and determine the allocation of resources.

In Oregon, Gary Wilhelms writes, “Redistricting is the single most partisan political project our Legislature faces every 10 years. This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Legislators are politicians, after all, and they are partisan.”

“Having waited 40 years for a congressman of its own, the Permian Basin and its political advocates hope statewide congressional redistricting next year does not reverse that achievement. U.S. Rep. Mike Conaway, R-Midland, whose 11th Congressional District runs east 300 miles, said fall elections must raise the number of Republicans in the Texas House of Representatives in Austin from 77 to at least 80.”

Democrats are paying attention to redistricting too. Texas Rep. Mark Strama “sees more change coming. Lawmakers will tackle redistricting in 2011, and the 2012 elections, based on new political maps, could bring in a relatively large class of freshman. Another way to say it: A relatively large number of veterans could be done after the next session.”

On a national scale, the Dems are really taking it to extremes. Our friends at the Huffington Post write, “In six months, voters may determine control of Congress for the next decade in elections for governors and legislatures that will control the redistricting process in most states. Our opponents understand these high stakes and are highly-skilled practitioners in exploiting the redistricting process. Bush-era operatives including Karl Rove and Ed Gillespie recently reemerged with plans to take control of key state capitols. Rove clearly hopes to use redistricting in the states to resurrect his dashed dream of a permanent Republican majority. Progressives must stop Rove and the Right’s redistricting plans in 2010.”

Florida is reminded of why redistricting matters. The state “voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in 1996 and in 2008. … Yet the state’s congressional delegation is 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats. In the state Senate, it’s 26 Republicans and 13 Democrats, with one Palm Beach County vacancy that a Democrat soon will fill. In the House, it’s 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats.”

“One of the last by-products of the 2002 redistricting battle at the [Colorado] capitol is just a governor’s signature away from being reversed. Tuesday, the Senate gave final approval to House Bill 1408, which would change the guidance to the courts that must create new congressional boundaries after each census, if the General Assembly fails to draw the maps for those districts.”

“The Delaware Republicans unfurled three new candidacies for the state House of Representatives on the same day, a sign they are really serious about trying to take back the majority. … The next General Assembly will be responsible for redistricting — the readjustment of the legislative district lines every 10 years after the census — and it gives the majority essentially a free hand at shoring up its own members. The House has 24 Democrats and 17 Republicans. … The Republicans have the national mood of voter discontent on their side, as well as the political history that shows the president’s party typically losing legislative seats here in mid-term elections.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here