In Gujarat, It’s All About Modi

Narendra Modi spoke during an election campaign rally ahead of the Gujarat state assembly elections in near Ahmadabad, Gujarat, Dec 12.

India’s political pundits are not concerned about whether Narendra Modi gets a third full-term as the chief minister of Gujarat state – he probably will.

As his name is being touted as a possible prime ministerial candidate for the 2014 general election, they want to know whether he will be able to draw even more votes for his Bharatiya Janata Party than he did five years ago, at the last elections.

While Mr. Modi has never publicly stated his ambition to become prime minister, he is widely seen as a leading contender. As a result, campaigning for this election has focused almost entirely on Mr. Modi, who is at once one of the country’s most popular and most polarizing politicians.

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“The main focus is to make this election a referendum on Modi,” Arun Jaitley, a senior BJP politician, told the Hindustan Times earlier this week. Voting in Gujarat will be staggered, with residents of some areas voting Thursday and the rest on Monday.

Opinion polls over the past few years have shown Mr. Modi’s popularity increase in India, especially with the middle class.

Supporters of Mr. Modi point to the rapid economic growth in Gujarat, saying India as a whole could benefit from his approach. Gujarat is home to several of India’s largest industrial projects, including the world’s largest oil refinery, run by Reliance Industries Ltd., and Tata Motors ' factory for its Nano mini-car. Detractors say that his ties with Hindu right-wing groups make him unfit to lead a country as diverse as India, pointing to his administration’s failure to stop communal violence in his state in 2002 that killed over 1,000 people, mostly Muslim.

For Mr. Modi, winning more seats in the state assembly is critical to prove to his colleagues he is in a good standing to aim for the top job, according to Suhas Palshikar, a political science professor at Pune University and member of Lokniti, a think tank. “At present, Mr. Modi is by no means a unanimous choice for projecting as a prime ministerial contender within BJP,” he said. At the 2007 elections, the BJP won 117 of the state assembly’s 182 seats.

This time around, according to a pre-election survey by Lokniti, the BJP may get 50% of the vote. The survey didn’t say how many seats the party looked set to win. Another poll by news channel Headlines Today projected the BJP would secure fewer seats than it did in 2007, or 114.

So far, the central government’s ruling Congress Party hasn’t been able to make much of a mark in Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi, the 42-year-old son of party leader Sonia Gandhi, hasn’t been campaigning particularly actively, appearing only in a handful of public gatherings earlier this week. Mr. Gandhi is seen as a possible prime ministerial candidate for the Congress party at the general election. He is expected to lead the party’s campaign for that election.

“In Gujarat, Rahul Gandhi is not an issue,” said author and political commentator Rasheed Kidwai. Mr. Kidwai said Mr. Gandhi has consciously kept a low profile in these elections, saying he “doesn’t seem to be in a hurry” to aim for the post of prime minister.

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