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Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by reds44

He's obviously not going to be able to throw 200+ innings this year. So start him as a starter and as he approaches his inning wall move him to the bullpen. Or does that just make too much sense for everyone?

Walt Jocketty has actually talked about the opposite as an option.... starting him in the bullpen, then moving him to the rotation later in the year so he can pitch in the playoffs as a starter (if his performance warrants it over other guys of course). He specifically called out the Braves and how they used Kris Medlen on several occasions this offseason as one plan they looked at.

Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Walt Jocketty has actually talked about the opposite as an option.... starting him in the bullpen, then moving him to the rotation later in the year so he can pitch in the playoffs as a starter (if his performance warrants it over other guys of course). He specifically called out the Braves and how they used Kris Medlen on several occasions this offseason as one plan they looked at.

It is a viable option and could work well. I am not sure the Braves actually intended to do that last year with Medlen from the beginning, but rather he was a reliever who was put in the rotation after they had a couple of starters get hurt. If the Reds decide to use this plan I bet Dusty won't let them take the Missile out of the bullpen once he is there.

Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Walt Jocketty has actually talked about the opposite as an option.... starting him in the bullpen, then moving him to the rotation later in the year so he can pitch in the playoffs as a starter (if his performance warrants it over other guys of course). He specifically called out the Braves and how they used Kris Medlen on several occasions this offseason as one plan they looked at.

That works too.

Originally Posted by PuffyPig

Let's face it, you mis-hit the bun with the mustard squirter, no one will really care.

Re: Chapman

I frame the issue this way: Giving every opportunity for Chapman to break the rotation is answered by how it might look in a postseason series, when a member of the rotation like Cueto goes down in game 1, and ALL you're left with is Latos, Chapman, Bailey and Arroyo to finish out the series. Chapman in the bully didn't help us much in games 3, 4 or 5 last year.

Re: Chapman

The most interesting question is this:

How many posts in the thread when Reds announce Chapman will begin the season in the bullpen?

Tradrumor's post asks another good question - without Aroldis, is the Reds' rotation really that good? Is it a playoff winning rotation? I think it's a fair question and probably the key issue as the Reds think this through.

Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by hebroncougar

I know I'm in the minority, but I'd prefer he stay in the bullpen. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

It wasn't broke last season. This is a new season. It is very clear in baseball roster construction that a starting pitcher is much, much more valuable than a reliever, so when you have one with the potential of Chapman to add to the rotation, you improve what you have. That isn't breaking anything, that's upgrading.

Re: Chapman

Using Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen is like driving an Indy car in a go-cart race. Using Mike Leake in the starting rotation is like driving a go-cart at the Indianapolis 500. One job is much more important than the other.

It is wise to use your best soldiers for the whole battle rather than saving them to mop up the enemy stragglers after the battle is almost over. You are much more likely to win the battle if your best soldiers are fighting it.

It is wise to use your best pitchers when the outcome of the game is being fought over in the early and middle innings rather than saving them to get the last three outs when the game is already pretty much decided.

Using Aroldis Chapman for the last inning with a three run lead is a waste. You don't need a great pitcher to protect a three run lead. He should be used to make sure the Reds get a lead in the first place, not to wipe up the crumbs. Even a bad pitcher can protect a three run lead 99% of the time.

You are more likely to have a lead in the late innings if your best pitchers throw more innings. As a starter Chapman will throw 3x more innings than he would as a reliever. If he doesn't throw those extra innings then a lesser pitcher will.

Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by traderumor

It wasn't broke last season. This is a new season. It is very clear in baseball roster construction that a starting pitcher is much, much more valuable than a reliever, so when you have one with the potential of Chapman to add to the rotation, you improve what you have. That isn't breaking anything, that's upgrading.

I don't agree with the way you framed the question. A starting pitcher may be more valuable than a reliever typically. But Chapman wasn't just a reliever. I think you have to weigh his value as a starter against his value as a top closer.

And while, as Doug often points out, a single reliever isn't that critical, I think differently about premium late inning relievers. Guys who regularly cover the 8th or 9th inning effectively. Not the same thing as a middle man innings eater.

The problem here, of course, is that Chapman's success level as a starter is unknown. So it's trading a relatively sure thing in the bullpen to something more questionable in the rotation.

To me, this one is for the professionals. They have to project how good a starter Chappy can be. If they believe he has enough different pitches, stamina, etc., and is likely to be a first rate starter, the decision is made.

If they think the odds of him being a first rate starter is in the 50-50 range, I think he stays in the pen.

Re: Chapman

Originally Posted by edabbs44

Is the #5 spot really "broke" with Leake there? Still young and we are talking about the 5th guy in the rotation.

Yes. Leake isn't the guy who is going to figure something out and become Johnny Cueto/Mat Latos. I don't want to accept that Leake is good for a #5 starter when we could make Bronson Arroyo the #5 starter and it be a rather significant upgrade over Leake.

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