Thursday, August 10, 2006

Unintended consequencesBy Ayaz Amir"THIS mortifying war", as a columnist in the Israelinewspaper Haaretz describes it, was supposed todestroy Hezbollah quickly. But it has now entered itsfourth week and far from being destroyed Hezbollah isproving more than a match for the Israeli army.

This is something totally new, no Arab army able towithstand Israeli might for so long. While the Arabstreet has been electrified, Arab leaders, clients ofthe United States, look on despondently. For nothinghas made them look more impotent. Even in that citadelof silence, Saudi Arabia, there have been smalldemonstrations in support of Hezbollah.

On Wednesday the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert,in a stern TV broadcast (shades of Churchill?) saidthat Hezbollah had been crippled. The same dayHezbollah fired more than 200 rockets into Israel, thehighest number since this war began, giving a newmeaning to the idea of crippling.

Hezbollah knows how to fight. Even though the Israeliarmy, desperate to salvage something from thisconflict, has launched a massive assault across theLebanese border, and its air force is carrying outround-the-clock bombings, Hezbollah is standing itsground. No Arab army has successfully done this exceptonce before when Hezbollah forced the Israeli army towithdraw from South Lebanon in 2000, and now againwhen Hezbollah is giving the Israeli army its toughesttime since the founding of the state of Israel. Andthis is a guerrilla organization whose hardcorefighting strength is no more than 5-6000.There is talk of the Israeli army wanting to advanceup to the Litani River. Nothing would suit Hezbollahbetter because the more the Israeli army is extendedthe more vulnerable it becomes to Hezbollah guerrillaattacks.

And so, not surprisingly, we are seeing subtle changesof mood and atmosphere. Even the tenor of westernreporting is beginning to change. Until a few days agoBBC and CNN were sounding no better than mouthpiecesof the Israeli foreign ministry (not to mention FoxNews which always sounds like the mouthpiece of theIsraeli army.) They were simply unwatchable. Now whenIsraeli claims and propaganda are measured against theactual performance of the Israeli army on the ground,we can detect the first stirrings of scepticism.

In the Security Council we are now hearing the firstreports of progress towards some kind of a ceasefireresolution. The US and Israel wanted it differently:the smashing of Hezbollah before any ceasefire was putin place. But with Hezbollah refusing to crack andinternational condemnation of Israeli atrocitiesgrowing, even the US is being compelled to modify itsposition.

Even that most hardline of neocon nuts, the US's UNambassador John Bolton, has had to soften hisutterances about Hezbollah. (On Wednesday, the BBC'sUN correspondent could scarcely hide his astonishmentwhen he was reporting Bolton's "almost emollient"remarks about Hezbollah. For someone like Bolton thisis little short of heresy.)

All this is part of something larger happening acrossthe broad sweep of the Muslim world. I can do nobetter than quote Robert Fisk, widely respected acrossthe region for his outstanding reporting:

"You heard Sharon, before he suffered his massivestroke, he used this phrase in the Knesset, you know,`The Palestinians must feel pain.' This was during oneof the intifadas.

"The idea that if you continue to beat and beat andbeat the Arabs, they will submit, that eventuallythey'll go on their knees and give you what you want.And this is totally, utterly self-delusional, becauseit doesn't apply anymore. It used to apply 30 yearsago, when I first arrived in the Middle East. If theIsraelis crossed the Lebanese border, the Palestiniansjumped in their cars and drove to Beirut and went tothe cinema. Now when the Israelis cross the Lebaneseborder, the Hezbollah jump in their cars in Beirut andrace to the south to join battle with them.

"...the key thing now is that Arabs are not afraid anymore. Their leaders are afraid, the Mubaraks of thisworld, the president of Egypt, King Abdullah II ofJordan. They're afraid. They shake and tremble intheir golden mosques, because they were supported byus. But the people are no longer afraid. Whether thisis because they've grown tired of being afraid — youknow, they say once you lose your fear you cannot bere-injected with fear, you can't start beingfrightened again — or whether it's because our westernforces are now at war with Islamists, not withnationalists."

Mark this distinction. Nationalist and secular forces,including the PLO, have been discredited. They werenot up to the task before them. They became corruptand soft. And so their place was taken by Islamistforces which are now the only elements in the entireMuslim world struggling against Israel and the US (twosides, sadly, of the same coin).

Islamists are battling Israel in Gaza, Islamistsengaging Israel in Lebanon, Islamists fighting the USoccupation in Iraq, Islamists battling theAmerican-propped Karzai puppet government inAfghanistan, Islamist guerrillas fighting the Pakistanarmy to a standstill in North and South Waziristan andan Islamist regime in Iran standing up to the US andproviding support to Hamas and Hezbollah. Syria whichis secular alone bucks this trend. But even Syriafinds itself in alliance with Islamist forces.

So note the spreading arc of turbulence: from theshores of the Mediterranean to the borders of Pakistanthis entire region in ferment, the arrogance andstupidity of American policy fanning the flames ofunrest and revolt.

Hezbollah already is a symbol of defiance far beyondthe confines of Lebanon, its leader, Sheikh HasanNasrallah, arguably the most popular figure in theIslamic world today. So what will the Israeliaggression against Lebanon, and American policysupporting it, achieve? Hezbollah will still bearound. But with the one big difference that moreyoungmen and women will be ready to join the Islamistcause, more people holding up Hasan Nasrallah as anicon of resistance.

Personally I find myself in a strange position. I amas secular in my thinking, if not more than most otherpeople. I was born a Muslim but as is not uncommon inany religion, I count myself among those who havenever been very particular about observing the ritualsof the faith. Indeed, some of my personal habits aresuch as not to accord with anyone's definition ofcorrect Muslim behaviour. I also don't like theintrusion of religion into politics and find theaverage maulvi's ready stock of pomposity andhypocrisy amusing.

My secularism, however, collides with an unpleasantreality: the picture of the Islamic world in thrall toAmerican power, Muslim elites dancing to America'stune, Muslim countries little better than satellitesorbiting around the US. I see this in my own countrywhere there is too much American influence, much of itof the wrong kind. If the Muslim world is to progress,this bondage has to be broken.Even democracy won't come to the Muslim world unlessthis influence is overthrown. It's one of the biggestmyths of our time that America wants democracy toflourish in the lands of Islam. How can it whendemocracy doesn't suit its interests? If we havepopular governments in Muslim countries the firstthing they will demand is an end to American hegemony.The Americans were happy with the Shah, they can'tabide democratic Iran. They can't abide Hamas which isthe elected representative of the Palestinian people.They can't abide Hezbollah which has a representativestatus in Lebanese politics. Democracy in the Muslimworld and the interests of American foreign policyjust do not mix. That is why any kind of popularmovement in the Muslim world finds itself on acollision course with US interests.

Now if we take it as correct that American dominationof the Islamic world is not a good thing and deservesto be resisted, it becomes hard for so-calledsecularists like myself to close their eyes to theuncomfortable fact that the only forces resisting thisdomination, often successfully, are those which, insome form or the other, draw their inspiration fromIslam.

Savour then the irony of it. The "war on terror" wasmeant to fight and contain radical Islam. Instead, theBush administration has turned out to be its biggestsupporter, through its arrogance, lies and blindsupport of Israel giving radical Islam an impetus itcould never have hoped to achieve on its own.