Estes Park Opinion

The question of 'recovery'

One of the popular questions going around these days is "When will know if we have recovered from the flood?"

It's a logical question to ask. It's something we've been studying - and struggling - with ever since last September.

There are lots of ways to get an answer.

An unscientific way would be to just ask a handful of local business owners at random how they are doing. Some will say they are just getting by. Some will say business is about average and that it will take some time to make up for lost revenue. Others will say business is great and that they will likely bounce back by the end of the year.

Of course, this doesn't really answer the question. It's just opinions with no data to support it.

Another way to try and determine how the town is doing is to study sales tax collections and gross taxable sales.

The Trail-Gazette took a stab at that this week.

We found that the first five months of 2014 were strong compared to 2013, with gross taxable sales and sales tax collections up 8 percent. Taking a longer look, we found that 2014 is up 35.2 percent over 2010.

That's great news and a good sign that the first part of this year is strong and that the economy is recovering quickly.

However, January through May generally represents just 25 percent of the year's total in gross taxable sales and sales tax collections. With the bulk of sales (75 percent) still to be recorded, it's hard to get too excited.

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Any number of events - fires, floods, storms, park closure, road closures, etc. - could dig into the year's early success.

Having said that, we are certain that 2014 will produce a record for sales tax collections and gross taxable sales.

Why is that?

Because the town's new 1 percent sales tax went into effect on July 1. That means even with the same number of sales - or slightly fewer - the sales tax collections and gross taxable sales will be much higher.

So while we can't say with any certainty that the town will recover quickly from the flood, we can say that the economy is healthy and growing.

Recent actions - such as the wellness center project at the Stanley Hotel and the changing of the development code to allow for micro brewing businesses - will also spur those numbers this year and next.

At the very least, we should feel good about where Estes Park's economy is and where it is going.

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