With week to go, Rep. Fitzpatrick has edge in poll

In Bucks race for Congress, Republican is in front of Dem Murphy.

October 31, 2006|By Brian Callaway Of The Morning Call

U.S. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick holds a slender edge among voters in a race that could be pivotal in determining control of Congress, even though a series of factors would seem to favor his Democratic challenger, according to a new poll.

Forty-six percent of likely voters surveyed in the 8th Congressional District support the first-term Bucks County Republican, according to The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Monday, while 40 percent said they would vote for Democrat Patrick Murphy.

When people were asked whom they were leaning toward voting for, Murphy trailed Fitzpatrick by only 5 percentage points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

"It's probably a slight lead for Fitzpatrick," said Christopher Borick, director of Muhlenberg's Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.

"But this is by no means a done deal. This will be one that will go right up to Election Day."

The poll was conducted from Wednesday through Friday, and had the race slightly closer than a Keystone Poll of the district conducted between Oct. 19 and 24, which had Fitzpatrick up by 9 percentage points.

While Murphy is running close in a district where there are about 25,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, he's faring less well there than some other Democratic candidates. The poll shows that Gov. Ed Rendell and Senate challenger Bob Casey Jr. have healthy leads in the 8th District over their Republican opponents.

Meanwhile, President Bush is unpopular among 8th District voters, with only 38 percent approving of his job performance compared with 54 percent who disapprove.

And Murphy has an edge on certain questions. The majority of the 421 likely voters polled said they support embryonic stem-cell research and abortion rights -- things Murphy supports and Fitzpatrick opposes.

Murphy, an Iraq war veteran, also leads among voters who cite the war as the most important issue in determining their vote; 38 percent of respondents named it the top issue, far outstripping every other issue.

However, Fitzpatrick did better among people who were less concerned about Iraq.

"For the almost six in 10 voters in the district who found another issue as most important, they're breaking more toward Mike Fitzpatrick," Borick said.

He added that Fitzpatrick seems to have managed to distance himself from the GOP's national leaders, who have been slumping in polls.

"He's crafted out an identity as an 8th District, Bucks County Republican, rather than a Washington, more George Bush-style Republican," Borick said. "He's played a role in local politics and is part of the community. In congressional races, that still matters."

There also are indications that campaign commercials blasting Murphy are having an effect. While Fitzpatrick is better known in the district, both men have identical unfavorable ratings of 31 percent.

Borick said Murphy still has a solid chance in the race if he can make voters focus on the national significance of this year's election.

"If I'm him, I'm continually making pleas to say, "You don't want Republicans put back in control of the House of Representatives,"' Borick said. ""You may not dislike Mike Fitzpatrick, but you really dislike what's happening with Republican leadership."'

The 8th District, which includes all of Bucks County and small parts of Montgomery County and Philadelphia, is considered home to one of the most competitive campaigns in the country this year. Democrats, who need 15 seats to gain control of the House, consider it a key chance to pick off a GOP-held seat.

While there are more than 203,000 registered Republicans in the district, versus about 178,000 Democrats and 63,000 independents or third-party voters, the district narrowly went for Democratic Sen. John Kerry in the last presidential election.

And Carrie James, a spokesman for Murphy, said she's confident voters will end up backing her candidate come Election Day.

"I think what Patrick is hearing from people as he talks to them along the campaign trail is that they're looking for a change in direction, both in the war in Iraq, on embryonic stem-cell research, and this poll shows that these are issues people care about," she said. "This is one of the most highly contested congressional races in the country, and it's going to be close."

Mike Conallen, Fitzpatrick's chief of staff, said his boss isn't taking the race for granted.

"Our internal polls show that this is a very close election," he said. "Mike's going to continue to run in this election as if he's coming from behind, and frankly, the only poll that matters will be the vote on Nov. 7."