A new analysis projects that 18.8 million iPhone 3GS users will upgrade to the iPhone 4S in the next year, accounting for 18 percent of Apple's sales.

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray believes that most users who bought an iPhone 3GS before the iPhone 4 went on sale will make the upgrade in the next year. He has estimated there are 27.6 million iPhone 3GS users who are ready to upgrade their smartphone.

Munster's numbers are based on what he calls "several conservative assumptions" regarding sales and upgrades. If 25 percent of those users upgraded early to the iPhone 4 and 15 percent switched platforms to Android, that would leave 18.8 million left who would buy an iPhone 4S.

In August, Munster revealed the results of a small poll of 216 mobile phone users, in which he found a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers. The survey found that 94 percent of current iPhone customers said they expect to replace their iPhone with a better model in the future, rather than switching to another platform like Android.

That number well exceeded Android users, as only 47 percent of those polled indicated they expected to buy another Android device. Among Android users, Munster found that 42 percent planned to switch to the iPhone.

Munster's estimate of iPhone 3GS "upgraders" does not include any existing users of the first-generation iPhone, the iPhone 3G, or the iPhone 4.

In all, he sees Apple selling 104.4 million iPhones in its 2012 fiscal year. That would be a 35 percent increase from 2011, much less than the year-over-year increases of more than 90 percent that Apple has seen over the last two years.

Piper Jaffray has reiterated its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock. The firm has maintained its price target of $607.

And all those iPhone 3GS phones will be unlocked and moved to tmobile.

Edit: Hmmm. Is "iPhones 3GS" the correct plural?

You added phones for the plural to avoid any uncertainty but I think iPhones 3GSes would also work for plural, though it looks odd to me. It can get confusing when you want to make the earlier version possessive, as in 'the iPhone 3G's camera" to refer to the 2nd gen iPhone.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

After 10 years of owning all Apple technology, we switched to the Samsung SII, and we are more than happy with it. Most our Apple apps were already in the Android store from the same companies and were able to even transfer all the app information. i.e. contacts, passwords, music, etc.

Sorry Apple, but Apple needs to wake up and release better technology than the competition or is going to lose their Apple technology fans, like us. I am not going to brag about our new phones, but overall they are way superior in hardware/OS and usability than our old IPhone 4's.

I hope Apple comes back with better technology, because innovation is the way to beat the competition. But until then, we will go with the better technology.

Funny thing is that we would never have tested the new S2's if Apple would not have sued Samsung. If they are not carefull Apple can lose the market edge beginning this Christmas.

Apple needs to add SD cards to their phones so that one can just install 32 GB or 64 GB cards and switch them when one needs more space. IPhones need to have removable batteries, so that in 10 seconds or less you can replace the battery and get 8 more hours of work without having stupid charging contraptions. Apple needs to have OLED bright displays (no angle viewing issues) which is the best display technology. The OS has to change many annoying issues. i.e. killing the apps have to be done one by one and you have to enter the akward mode to do it. A bigger screen is needed. Small screens are hard to see and hard to type. Apple needs to improve their blue tooth devices, too. The Apple bluetooth does not have signal control and it has a low signal power, so when playing music in the car or home, it does not sound very good because one has to increase the amplifier volume, which increases the noise. In contrast, other phones have signal control and you can just raise the signal level for a rich music play at lower volumes. Storing files is awkard and needs to be improved. There needs to be a common place to store files that all applications can access. It is bad to have each application ahve a copy of a file because they cannot share files. There needs to be an easy way to exit an application or putting it in the background like in other devices.

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

Hopefully Apple will never listen to people like you!

If you bought a Samsung SII, then good for you, I am extremely happy for you, but don't fool yourself into thinking that it's better than the iPhone 4S.

I realize that you have to justify your purchase, that is basic human psychology, but I am sorry to inform you that you made a mistake, and no matter what you try to tell yourself, you made the wrong decision!

I saw some preliminary benchmarks of the iPhone 4S and the iPhone kills the Samsung SII! It totally rapes the Samsung and humiliates it in numerous benchmarks.

What Android people seem to forget, is that the hardware specs don't really matter at all when your OS is complete fucking crap! The OS is slow, unoptimized, it's layer after layer of garbage and all of the specs in the world won't help you out!

Anyway, have fun with your Samsung. Why would somebody even bother to sign up here and write such a funny post as yours?

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

I don't understand why people think the 6th generation iPhone with iOS 6.0 an Apple A6 chip will be called the iPhone 5. There is no history to support this naming convention. Either iPhone 4G or iPhone 6 or something else entirely, but iPhone 5 is off the table.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

I hope you are not in the post-paid plan,subsidized phone markets. If you purchase full retail I understand, but if you aren't, I believe you've made a mistake with this approach because you will have paid a carrier dearly for subsidies you aren't receiving.

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

After 10 years of owning all Apple technology, we switched to the Samsung SII, and we are more than happy with it. Most our Apple apps were already in the Android store from the same companies and were able to even transfer all the app information. i.e. contacts, passwords, music, etc.

Sorry Apple, but Apple needs to wake up and release better technology than the competition or is going to lose their Apple technology fans, like us. I am not going to brag about our new phones, but overall they are way superior in hardware/OS and usability than our old IPhone 4's.

I hope Apple comes back with better technology, because innovation is the way to beat the competition. But until then, we will go with the better technology.

Funny thing is that we would never have tested the new S2's if Apple would not have sued Samsung. If they are not carefull Apple can lose the market edge beginning this Christmas.

Apple needs to add SD cards to their phones so that one can just install 32 GB or 64 GB cards and switch them when one needs more space. IPhones need to have removable batteries, so that in 10 seconds or less you can replace the battery and get 8 more hours of work without having stupid charging contraptions. Apple needs to have OLED bright displays (no angle viewing issues) which is the best display technology. The OS has to change many annoying issues. i.e. killing the apps have to be done one by one and you have to enter the akward mode to do it. A bigger screen is needed. Small screens are hard to see and hard to type. Apple needs to improve their blue tooth devices, too. The Apple bluetooth does not have signal control and it has a low signal power, so when playing music in the car or home, it does not sound very good because one has to increase the amplifier volume, which increases the noise. In contrast, other phones have signal control and you can just raise the signal level for a rich music play at lower volumes. Storing files is awkard and needs to be improved. There needs to be a common place to store files that all applications can access. It is bad to have each application ahve a copy of a file because they cannot share files. There needs to be an easy way to exit an application or putting it in the background like in other devices.

Hopefully Apple will hear some of it's fans and ex-fans requests and will improve their devices...

Here's this guy calling the iP4 design "showing its age", which is clearly is not. It's still in my opinion the most nicest, polished design out there in comparison to that cheap plastic garbage that the other folks have.

And yet again, this guy is throwing all kinds of "must-have" specs - AMOLED, SD slots, removable battery, etc. that surely must make it sound like the iPhone has been flawed in its entirety to begin with. The same trollish remarks that many infesters here claim is a necessity on any phone today, and labels the iPhone an "epic fail" when the numbers consistently prove (since 2007) to the contrary.

Reality check buddy... tech-heads like you do not a market make. You definitely fall into the crowd that needs a quick 5-minute change-fix, every five minutes to keep from getting bored.

For everyone else - and where the money is at - Apple's answer to mobile computing obviously resonates with a huge number of people. It's easy to use, works great, looks great, has a timeless design, and shows a level of polish that the Android junk could never attain in both hardware and software integration.

We want stability, quality, and ease of use. I have yet to see that in any Android phone. I've tried so many of them that I just nod my head in disgust that what is essentially a big piece of beta software can't do any better.

Every criticism that you bring up has been asked and answered and while the battery whine and the dijsplay whine have been addressed to the tune of millions and millions of iPhones sold, you come here and sling the same shit. Who paid you? Samsung? Microsoft?

However, at the end of the day you answered your own question and the question of every other Fandroid. The iPhone is not for you. Move on. Get over the fact that the iPhone 4s is apparently a success

Oh one last thing, did you send this big long whine to Apple's feedback email address to actually try to make your point known? Or are you just astroturfung?

I'll be holding out for the iPhone 5 in June or Oct '12 and I'm a iPhone 3g user. On my second iPhone 3g because my other did this weird white screen with blue-lines across the face late last year and it wouldn't work. I took it Apple, they said, gotta upgrade to iPhone 4 dude. No way! I'll wait! Went home, researched on YouTube the issue, required a jailbreak, backed it up, jail broke it, it worked another year. Finally, she died, completely. Bought a friends old 3g when he upgraded, put my sim card in, restored from old back up, and waited for big announcement for iPhone 5 and...still waiting. I haven't waited this long, to upgrade to the same phone I didn't want to upgrade to last year. So, the wait goes on. I'm sure the iPhone 3Gs, the iPhone 4 and the new iPhone 4s are fine iPhones but, it's nothing like what the iPhone 5 will be!

Knock yourself out dude. I have been limping along with my old 3G after having sold my iPhone 4 last week. Can't wait until this Friday.

Yeah, yeah. And then you're gonna wait until the 5r, then the 6. All the while you probably have some iteration of Android phone, maybe Fudgsicle Supreme while you're astroturfing here. Nice try.

I don't understand why people think the 6th generation iPhone with iOS 6.0 an Apple A6 chip will be called the iPhone 5. There is no history to support this naming convention. Either iPhone 4G or iPhone 6 or something else entirely, but iPhone 5 is off the table.

No offense, but why are you so obsessed with this? I rarely comment, but I read most article comment threads and I have seen no less than 6 posts in the last week or two from you on this. Let it go. It really is the silliest, most insignificant detail on an apple board to get all up in arms about. I tend to agree with you, but seriously, who gives a crap? Apple will call it what they'll call it, and then everyone will follow. How much time will you waste over the next year trying to convince people of a meaningless detail like whether it will be the iPhone 5, 6, or whatever?

No offense, but why are you so obsessed with this? I rarely comment, but I read most article comment threads and I have seen no less than 6 posts in the last week or two from you on this. Let it go. It really is the silliest, most insignificant detail on an apple board to get all up in arms about. I tend to agree with you, but seriously, who gives a crap? Apple will call it what they'll call it, and then everyone will follow. How much time will you waste over the next year trying to convince people of a meaningless detail like whether it will be the iPhone 5, 6, or whatever?

I don't care what they believe, I'm concerned with why they believe it. Imagine if someone said Apple was going to go back to the original iPhone design thickness. It would be illogical so you might be curious to know why, hence my starting the paragraph with "I don't understand" The rest is my argument as to why I don't understand. I'm nothing if not thorough.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

My wife and I were one of the people that waited for the IPhone announcement and got very dissapointed. We were expecting the new IPhone 5 since the IPhone 4 has been showing its age for some time.

Do you own an iPhone 4? I have since launch day and it still cooks with gas. It still feels so fast that I debated waiting for the first LTE model. Less sane thoughts prevailed and of course I was up at 00:00:01 PDT and ordering.

I'll say that many of the features you mention would make a phone so large that I wouldn't want it.