It seems like just last month that producers at Blizzard were worrying publicly that EA's Star Wars: The Old Republic was partially to blame for World of Warcraft's declining subscriber numbers. But now there's reason to believe The Old Republic itself is already seeing its own decline in subscribers, only months after its launch late last year.

In an investor note released today, Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz said he suspects that subscription levels for The Old Republic may already be lower than the 1.7 million EA reported in February. Creutz's primary piece of evidence for this belief is publicly available server population numbers assembled and reported by TORstatus.net. These figures have shown a roughly 10 percent decline over the last two months. That doesn't necessarily mean the game has lost 10 percent of its subscribers in that time, of course, but it isn't really a sign of strong player growth, either.

In addition, Creutz notes what he terms "aggressive" EA promotions to offer free game time to some long-standing players. He cites anecdotal evidence from blogs and message boards where players report spending less time in the game. Creutz suggests that the relative paucity of end game content "appears[s] to be taking its toll" on player interest, and that EA's efforts to address these concerns "appear to have stalled." (EA did not immediately respond to a request for comment).

Cowen and Company now officially predicts that The Old Republic will see an average of 1.25 million subscribers throughout the fiscal year ending next March. That's not horrible, by any means. It's likely enough to keep the game profitable and operating well into the future. But it's well below the analyst's previous estimates of a 2 million subscriber average for the year, not to mention World of Warcraft's 10.3 million subscribers as of last November.

159 Reader Comments

I still have an 'active' SWTOR account next to my WoW account. I really enjoy the questing so far, but with only about 4 hours play a week in this game it's slow.

I enjoy the story they tell a lot so far and want to see it finished. But I'm pretty sure once I hit 50 I will close my account. Half way there now. Why would I stop? Because the UI is an unworkable piece of crap. I like healing, but there is no way on earth I will do it in SWTOR as it corrently is. And the 1.2 changes do nothing to remedy this for me.

There's nothing wrong with sacrificing the end-game content for a solid leveling process for the launch of a game, if you have your end-game close to completion.

People forget that WoW shipped with zero end-game raids. MC and Ony were patched in about a month after the game went live, and were so horribly bugged that it was ridiculous.

Actually, Molten Core and Onyxia were in the game at launch, and tested before launch. I was there.They were in the 1.1.0 patch, which was the launch version.http://www.wowpedia.org/Patch_1.1.0Not sure why this misinformation keeps coming up.

Facts may bear you out, but his point is still valid: SWTOR has at least as much endgame as WoW did at launch: people just aren't OK with that quantity anymore.

Told you so. What part of “Star Wars MMO” made anyone think this would make it big?

MMO’s destroy lives! Everyone on the outside knows this so the industry isn’t attracting new players, and as time goes on the people on the inside are figuring it out and canceling their subscriptions. Stop making MMO’s!

As for Star Wars, it’s a 30 year old unoriginal franchise that’s been burned to the ground. Stop beating dead horses and start making original IP!

No matter how the apologists spin it, the game sucks. Not one single quality of life change that WoW introduced in the last 7 years made it into the game. Really Bioware!? You really didn't expect all the WoW players to remark on how poorly implemented most of the non combat stuff is? Especially when you had a fucking blueprint with WoW!? Really!? Yes all the WoW players have already gone back to Azeroth. Unfortunate because I really wanted to like the game.

" These figures have shown a roughly 10 percent decline over the last two months. That doesn't necessarily mean the game has lost 10 percent of its subscribers in that time, of course, but it isn't really a sign of strong player growth, either."

OK, I'll bite. If a 10% decline over the last two months doesn't mean the game has lost 10% of its subscribers, what does it mean?

The 10% decline refers to actual players and their time online within the game. Even though these 10% no longer play the game they could still be subscribed. This is because they may have pre-paid 3, 6, or 12 months in advance. These players may have not cancelled their subscriptions because they are waiting for new content to be added

Another subscriber that has let their sub lapse. It's just not that good of a game. Has some promise, but i really lament the $60 I spent on the game and the $45 in sub fees. $50 total? Yeah sure, but not $105 for 4 months of grinding.

SWTOR is an awesome game. I'll be playing it for quite some time. What is happening though, is all people are converging on one server in particular, 'The Fatman'. Fleet is averaging 250~ people during peak times and planets have very nice populations. Also, you actually run into players from the opposite faction!

The downside is, the queue is like 30 min to get in during peak hours. They need to start merging servers and offering transfers soon. I had to leave my first 50 behind since the server was dead.

Well if Blizzard was worried about SWTOR, they might be really worried when GW2 comes out....lot's of chatter about it, and having lot's of experience with Anet as a development company, I really don't expect them to disappoint in all they have said about the game.

Diablo 3 is probably an equal concern for all 3 games.

Blizzard is positively shaking in their boots about D3 ...

Honestly I'm very confused as to why anyone is still playing Wow - it seems pointless to me.

But playing Halo 27 isn't pointless? Watching TV? A movie? Hell it is all pointless, hence it is entertainment.

Oh btw I would love to see a study done on how much time non-MMO gamers waste in their games and other entertainment. We often hear about how much of a grind MMOs are and that they are huge time sinks. I doubt the amount of time an MMO head wastes in an MMO is much different than what other gamers waste or spend on entertainment pursuits.

I think you missed the point entirely. In MMO games, the "fun" factor relative to time spent playing is quite low compared to other forms of entertainment, including films and other types of games. Personally, I would much rather spend 20 hours playing a high quality single player game, such as Arkham Asylum, than 200 hours playing a MMO which does everything it possibly can to stretch out the playing time. After a while, you start seeing the tricks MMOs use and realize that you're going to be doing the exact same thing 100 hours from now, just with better equipment and pallet-swapped enemies. Thanks, but I'll pass.

This does not surprise me at all. How many hours do these companies think the core MMO player base is going to sink into multiple games? Player retention in MMOs is almost all based on how much each player has invested in the game. New MMOs have to offer enough original gameplay to lure someone away who has already grinded out 80 levels and fought multiple bosses across 5 hour raids.

I think new MMOs will need to go the free subscription route like Guild Wars.

So, I am a jedi consular too, just picked up the game and I am still in my free 30days. I actually just completed the part where you get sent to do some RnR. Bioware either changed the mission, or there are more than one way to complete it. I just went back to my ship, did a space mission, leveled up somewhere in there, went to my class trainer for new abilities and then got sent out on a mission.

I too would be annoyed that I got sent no where just to do it, but oddly enough since most of the time my experiances are much like PA's, this one is not something I can identify with.

I played WoW for a long time, and while the Old Republic is good, I can not see my self playing Old Republic for long. Level up a few different classes, then quit. If you get it on sale and only play for a month or 2 I recommend the game. Its very star wars, you get to cruize around the galaxy in your own space ship.

Seriously though. Everyone who has every been involved in MMO knows there is a surge then a drop of players.

I haven't played much of TOR but so far it has been fun. I believe that it will only get better in time as bugs are worked out and current content is updated and new is created.

As far as Penny Arcade's review is concerned, they wouldn't know a cool game if it bit them. I have a hard time respecting the opinion of someone who kicks a beautiful woman out of your convention for showing too much skin. No nip slips or any other private part showing... Maybe they should change their convention from the PAX Game Convention to the PAX Sausage Convention.

I've played wow since the first month it came out, and I've played Swtor since the first month IT came out. The level of content in WoW in it's first month wasn't near the quality Swtor was, but unfortunately wow is light years ahead in replayability. It's also way more addictive because of the hustle and bustle in the cities, swtor just gets old scrounging around for people to help you and you see people way to rarely.

Call me bias, but I have to stick with WoW even though it's formula is set in stone and swtor is very unique in comparison. I just enjoy the comraderie in WoW far more.

Well if Blizzard was worried about SWTOR, they might be really worried when GW2 comes out....lot's of chatter about it, and having lot's of experience with Anet as a development company, I really don't expect them to disappoint in all they have said about the game.

Diablo 3 is probably an equal concern for all 3 games.

Blizzard is positively shaking in their boots about D3 ...

Honestly I'm very confused as to why anyone is still playing Wow - it seems pointless to me.

But playing Halo 27 isn't pointless? Watching TV? A movie? Hell it is all pointless, hence it is entertainment.

Oh btw I would love to see a study done on how much time non-MMO gamers waste in their games and other entertainment. We often hear about how much of a grind MMOs are and that they are huge time sinks. I doubt the amount of time an MMO head wastes in an MMO is much different than what other gamers waste or spend on entertainment pursuits.

I think you missed the point entirely. In MMO games, the "fun" factor relative to time spent playing is quite low compared to other forms of entertainment, including films and other types of games. Personally, I would much rather spend 20 hours playing a high quality single player game, such as Arkham Asylum, than 200 hours playing a MMO which does everything it possibly can to stretch out the playing time. After a while, you start seeing the tricks MMOs use and realize that you're going to be doing the exact same thing 100 hours from now, just with better equipment and pallet-swapped enemies. Thanks, but I'll pass.

Yup PSO EP 1-2 and Demons souls were alot better than any MMO I have played and I have tried almost all the mains ones. The grinding gameplay is the most annoying thing that with the un fun rules and restrictions make most MMOs work......

No matter how the apologists spin it, the game sucks. Not one single quality of life change that WoW introduced in the last 7 years made it into the game. Really Bioware!? You really didn't expect all the WoW players to remark on how poorly implemented most of the non combat stuff is? Especially when you had a fucking blueprint with WoW!? Really!? Yes all the WoW players have already gone back to Azeroth. Unfortunate because I really wanted to like the game.

I didn't. I got a scroll of resurrection and all it accomplished was to remind me why I quit. I'm enjoying SWTOR far more. But, please, don't let that stop you from speaking for ALL WoW players.

No matter how the apologists spin it, the game sucks. Not one single quality of life change that WoW introduced in the last 7 years made it into the game. Really Bioware!? You really didn't expect all the WoW players to remark on how poorly implemented most of the non combat stuff is? Especially when you had a fucking blueprint with WoW!? Really!? Yes all the WoW players have already gone back to Azeroth. Unfortunate because I really wanted to like the game.

After being a 7 year wow raider and still playing SWTOR causually, i will never go back to what wow has become, Panda expansion sealing the crappy deal. WOW is a perfect game for the asian teen demographic with pokemon battles and everything for sale with real $ as only a matter of time. WoW is becoming Hello Kitty in a Pokemon world. Thanks to Bobby Kotick.

I wonder if it could be that gamers really really really don't like EA? Or at least, a very vocal percentage of them don't?

Or maybe they don't trust EA anymore? And don't feel like putting money into something they feel will be messed up by EA?

That's part of it for me.

I don't run Windows (at least not under normal circumstances), so I'd have to jump through hoops to get the game running. If I did run windows, or if they did support a platform I run on, there's a chance I'd have given the game a try by now, but I *don't* trust EA, I *don't* like their "Origin account" concept (I accidentally enabled it on an XBox game once, and now cannot disable it, and still get spam from it that I CANNOT STOP), and I'm not going to jump through those hoops for *them*.

Ah, you just got to love how the main page brings up the trolls and paid commentors (from rival studios).

Bottom line, the story is about an ANALYST'S opinions and really says nothing, especially to investors.

SWTOR is doing very good for the market space it is in and has less of a downtrend (if this can even be said to be appropriate at this time and with no real data --- no, this dip's 'source' is not a reliable form of data gathering) than would be expected.

As someone who has played since the first minutes of early access and continues to be an active player, I can confirm that these analysts are spot on. Players are leaving, and not without reason. SWTOR is an MMO that is biased towards the leveling process. The combat system is pretty good, but there is a distinct lack of polished and unique endgame content. Once you hit 50, you're going to run out of things to do in a hurry.

This. The single player content is pretty good, but all of the MMO elements (crafting, raiding, instances) were half-baked. Heck, until 1.2, crafting was largely useless unless you were biochem. So everyone was biochem. There was a lot of endgame content, but the problem was that it was all pretty easy, so you could finish it in a weekend. Of course, it had to be easy, because there was no combat log system to measure your performance by, so minmaxing was pretty hard, if not impossible.

I think another element of it is that weapons and armor are not nearly as visible as they are in WoW. In WoW you got to be this big hulking badass with a dragon flying out of your shoulders, and in TOR you got... a purple lightsaber. The "badass" factor just isn't there. That reduces a lot of the compulsion to grind content.

Oh btw I would love to see a study done on how much time non-MMO gamers waste in their games and other entertainment. We often hear about how much of a grind MMOs are and that they are huge time sinks. I doubt the amount of time an MMO head wastes in an MMO is much different than what other gamers waste or spend on entertainment pursuits.

I feel what you're saying, and all that, and I'm just one dude and not a study, but I entirely disagree with your conclusion. One of the reasons that I kicked the entire MMORPG genre to the curb is that it's addictive. Even when it's not that fun, it's addictive (case in point: EQ). The entire genre is setup that way.

Back when I was playing WoW (which was medium-grade addiction at worst, don't even ask me about my Asheron's Call days), it was entirely easy for me to get home from work, tell myself I was going to just log in to check the auction house, and then log out at midnight and go to bed. It didn't happen every day, but it happened. I play plenty of games these days, but rarely, if ever, does that happen. Maybe on the day that I get a new game I'm really, really anticipating. I get way, way more shit done when there's no MMORPG in my life. I still play games, yeah, but I actually work on projects, hang with friends, and otherwise accomplish things.

" These figures have shown a roughly 10 percent decline over the last two months. That doesn't necessarily mean the game has lost 10 percent of its subscribers in that time, of course, but it isn't really a sign of strong player growth, either."

OK, I'll bite. If a 10% decline over the last two months doesn't mean the game has lost 10% of its subscribers, what does it mean?

People who bought the game but never subbed wouldn't be a lost subscriber.

They also wouldn't be in the 10% less on the servers either. Next.

Uh, not everyone bought the game at launch. It's perfectly reasonable to think that people may have bought the game when it went on sale, what was it a month or two ago or perhaps just bought it late - played out their free month and decided it wasn't for them. Technically they would show up in the decline according to month by month server stats even though they were only a box sale. Next.

It's fairly obvious that SWTOR is falling apart. Why else would you offer a free month to people who are capped?

1.2 came out too late. The game got stale, 1.2 tried to save it, but honestly, it just isn't enough. After playing it nearly every day since launch, I've come to realize that, wow the game has terrible mechanics. Combined with a huge lack of vision from developers, and also the lack of distinction between PvP and PvE balancing. These issues have just made me realize that it's not worth playing it anymore. The operations aren't even fun at the end game.

Analysts are useless. Anyone who knows anything about MMOs can tell you subscription numbers will drop from launch, probably until the first expansion, that always happens. The thing that really matters is whether the game is stable or in a freeefall. SWTOR has shown no sign of being in a freefall, and he apparently doesn't think it is either since he estimates 1.25m in a year. In other words, there is no interesting information here, and it's all just basic guesswork anyway.

Please don't report on more analyst bullshit (for any topic) unless they have real numbers to back up their claims. It just lowers the level of discussion, and gives publicity to people who don't deserve any.

My anecdotal evidence is the number of players on the Fleet area has been dwindling. It was over 1000+ when the game started, right now it's hovering somewhere around 100 on my server (Ebon Hawk). I still log in every day to run my hard mode dailies.

I've said it before on previous SWTOR topics. This game badly needs a LFG feature that will group folks up. Even across servers (if possible).

My little brother said he wished for a game where you could literally do anything. I thought to myself "That is life".

(Can't tell if trolling or...)

One cannot race cars in real life without putting oneself and others in danger. One cannot build a bridge over a river without gathering the labor, materials and land. Destruction of anything is dramatically more expensive in real life than in games. Games allow us to experiment in a world where consequences are minimized. Death and destruction in games is temporary. MMOs add other people to the mix.

Still love SWTOR, still playing it. From my vantage point it's at least 8 individual storylines to playthrough and that will take me some time to do. The latest patch has added quite a bit. Raiding is fun and easily accessible to nearly all players.

My largest issue with the game is the instancing. I absolutely hate it. The game always feels barren and having to chose between Taris #1 and Taris #2 is a PITA to immersion. WoW has really spoiled me on a single server environment where everyone can interact together.

I get the impression that we hit peak MMO 5 years ago. Since then, millions of MMO subscribers have reclaimed their lives and moved back to less demanding forms of entertainment, while developers compete to hold the attention of a hard core of MMO fans for a few months at a time before they go back to an old favourite MMO or the new hopeful.

In all reality, I quit playing because it stopped holding my interest.I still play MMO's for the joy of playing with large numbers of other people, and games that are not MMO just do not hold my interest.

I want more sandbox mmo's that are in the theme of WoW- Just not world of warcraft-ish in general.Blizzard did a great job of making entertaining story lines but they just went to mainstream.

A good rule of thumb; if your grandmother can describe the game to you, it's probably not worth playing (anymore.)

My anecdotal evidence is the number of players on the Fleet area has been dwindling. It was over 1000+ when the game started, right now it's hovering somewhere around 100 on my server (Ebon Hawk). I still log in every day to run my hard mode dailies.

I've said it before on previous SWTOR topics. This game badly needs a LFG feature that will group folks up. Even across servers (if possible).

I play on the Ebon Hawk as well (Republic) and the numbers aren't quite *that* bad. On Friday nights (peak hours) post 1.2, it's not unusual to see upwards of 200 on the Republic fleet. On off-peak nights, it hovers around 120-150. Off-peak hours are usually in the 50-70 range. The lowest I've ever seen it is 30 (that was at like, 6am on a weekday). Note that the faction balance on the Ebon Hawk is about 0.76 (Empire to Republic), so the Empire fleet is going to have proportionally lower numbers.

Population *is* falling off, but not as significantly as you would think, at least not on this server. A lot of people are jumping from low-pop servers onto this one. It's still one of the most populated servers on the East Coast, and the only one which has a faction imbalance favoring the Republic.

Schnitz, I joined Red vs Blue and fight in solo, small gang and fleet battles most nights. Usually in t1 frigates. All the while my skills are learning. I have no grind. I can bug a plex to boost in game cash. I do what I want when I want. When I log in its for fun only and no grind.

I find myself less and less interested in SWTOR day by day. Its way too easy. I have finished everything but the new Operation on Hard Mode. I don't really care about Nightmare mode as it doesn't offer any significant reward. I can only make so many alts. The only reason I haven't jumped ship yet is because there isn't really anything else worth jumping to. Nowadays I only find myself logging in to lead operations that I care less and less about. PvP is not terrible, but nothing to write home about. Even though I have my doubts about TERA/GW2/D3, one they roll around, I can only see myself phasing swtor out completely.

I dunno what it is, but all the MMOs of late are just lackluster. They all cater to the lowest common denominator so they end up being just kinda "meh". They do everything to a competent level (or lower), but nothing really different or outstanding. I daresay that modern MMOs have become too mainstream and nobody wants to break the mold anymore. Nobody targets those niches anymore to try and build their popularity from there. Everyone wants to be a monster hit right out of the gate.

OMG did I just become a MMO hipster!? *poof hipster glasses* Nooooooooo!

Kyle Orland / Kyle is the Senior Gaming Editor at Ars Technica, specializing in video game hardware and software. He has journalism and computer science degrees from University of Maryland. He is based in Pittsburgh, PA.