Bosnia Serbs Ready To Crack, Run Out Of Fuel, Experts Say

June 1, 1995|By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE The Boston Globe

ZAGREB, Croatia - — Western media reports this week have depicted the Bosnian Serbs as relaxed, confident and cocky, not even bothering to turn off their Brazilian soap operas when NATO warplanes circle Pale, the small town they call their capital.

Wrong on all counts, a broad range of military and intelligence officers, diplomats and U.N. officials say. The Serbs are running scared and running out of fuel for their tanks.

"They are like rats in a corner," a Western ambassador said.

"The myth of Bosnian Serb invincibility is about to crack," a senior U.N. official said.

U.S. intelligence reports, citing communications intercepts, say the Serbs could run out of fuel within three weeks. U.N. and diplomatic sources suspect the Bosnian Serb leadership is increasingly divided. The arms embargo "has sprung a huge leak," the ambassador said, and Bosnian government forces are receiving substantial weapons supplies.

Nearly all observers agreed that the government forces were steadily improving in organization and tactics.

The loss of fuel could be crucial for the Bosnian Serbs, who have been chronically short of infantry throughout the war. Infantry morale has been low for much of the war. In the latest round of fighting in northern Bosnia, the Bosnian Serb radio is reported to have appealed for volunteers.

To compensate for the weakness of their infantry, the rebel Serbs have relied on their massive superiority in tanks and artillery. The Bosnian government has 20 tanks, Western military estimates say. The Bosnian Serbs - courtesy of the former Yugoslav National Army - have 380. The Bosnian government has about 100 artillery pieces, while the Bosnian Serbs have 730. The Bosnian Serbs' favorite tactic is the siege, coupled with the shelling of civilians to break the defenders' morale.

But a senior U.N. official said that "their weaponry is no bloody use without tank fuel" or gasoline for trucks that can tow artillery. Fuel is still being smuggled across the border, military sources said. But in the past few months, it has been nowhere near enough to give the Bosnian Serbs the mobility they need.

Moreover, the Bosnian Serbs are running into trouble precisely as the Bosnian government army has finally started an upswing. At the start of the war, the government forces had little training and few leaders. But in the past year or so, the Bosnian army has become much more mobile, skilled and disciplined - and better armed, a Western military study showed.

The Bosnian Serbs' problems do not end with the army. Many U.N. and diplomatic observers say a serious split is developing between the political leader, Radovan Karadzic, and his military commander, Ratko Mladic. The two men reportedly no longer see eye to eye.

A U.N. official and others speculated that Mladic might be transferring his loyalty to President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia. "My guess is that Karadzic will not be in office this time next year," the official said.

The oft-cited fear is that, if the Bosnian Serbs are cornered, they will opt for some epic, bloody last stand. But the bulk of the Bosnian Serb army could well opt for a deal.

That, in fact, is what most observers say the Bosnian Serbs are trying to do: extract as generous a negotiated settlement as possible - before their tanks run out of gas.