Candid Writerhttps://candidwriter.wordpress.com
Murrey Math, Trading Systems, Pivot Points, Opening Range Breakout, Camarilla Equation And More
Wed, 19 Dec 2018 09:32:59 +0000 en
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BSNL Broadband Fair Usage Policies Back On The Menuhttps://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/bsnl-broadband-fair-usage-policies-back-on-the-menu/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/bsnl-broadband-fair-usage-policies-back-on-the-menu/#respondWed, 05 Dec 2018 06:30:54 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1630Sometime last year, BSNL stopped enforcing the fair usage policies (FUP) associated with their broadband plans. This in effect implied that anyone could opt for one of the low-end broadband plans from BSNL and make good use of the unlimited 8 mbps speeds. It appears that BSNL has revamped its fair usage policy mechanisms – from this month, you will see speeds getting reduced to 1 mbps as soon as you cross the threshold data allocated for your plan.

It is a pity to see companies such as BSNL still trying to fleece their long-term customers when there are augmented options from service providers like Jio.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/05/bsnl-broadband-fair-usage-policies-back-on-the-menu/feed/0candidwriterMurrey Math Trading Strategy 3https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/murrey-math-trading-strategy-3/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/murrey-math-trading-strategy-3/#commentsSun, 02 Dec 2018 02:33:43 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1622In my previous post, I mentioned a strategy that could effectively help you to capture the current trend of any financial instrument. However, if you apply that strategy (at least for a considerable amount of time), you will begin to notice that the markets always act choppy when the price is in between 7/8 and +1/8 or 1/8 and -1/8. Whatever meager profit you had managed to accumulate following Strategy 2, will end up getting eroded from your trading account due to this choppy price action nature of the market.

This could in fact explain why I have decided to post Strategy 3 this month. This method simply helps you to avoid at least a small portion of the choppy price action exhibited by the financial instruments.

Here is the strategy in pictorial form

Rather than trying to guess the top and bottom of the market, this strategy effectively helps you to keep on trading with the trend. 4/8 is an important value because it divides 0/8 and 8/8 into equal halves. So, if the market is trading above 4/8, it will definitely have a tendency to keep on moving higher. Likewise, if the market is trading below 4/8, it’s tendency will be to keep on going lower.

Obviously there are going to be days when the market stays in between 3/8 and 5/8. On such days, your trading account will take a major hit because of the choppy price action. The best thing to do in such situations is to call it a day and stop trading. This is one of the drawbacks of the strategy. Even Murrey himself proclaims that the market will often try to stay in between 3/8 and 5/8 (as often as 43% of the time). So he suggests doing the exact opposite of what I have posted as strategy 3 (i.e. to sell at 5/8 and buy at 3/8).

Another point to note is that this strategy is not something that I found on my own. There were a couple of text documents written long back – I am not able to locate them online at the time of this post – this strategy was explicitly mentioned in one of those documents. If I find them, I will post it.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/12/02/murrey-math-trading-strategy-3/feed/1candidwriterMurrey Math Trading Strategy 2https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/murrey-math-trading-strategy-2/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/murrey-math-trading-strategy-2/#commentsWed, 31 Oct 2018 18:30:34 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1615Every month, I will post an unique trading strategy based on Murrey Math. Here is the strategy for this month.

Enter the high and low for the time period you wish to trade. Now pay close attention to 7/8 and 1/8. Wait for the instrument to touch either 7/8 or 1/8. If it touches 7/8, sell at that price. Stop loss for this trade will be +1/8.

Similarly, if the price touches 1/8, buy at that price and keep the stop loss at -1/8.

Now, the markets are always unpredictable. Once you sell at 7/8, there might be instances where the price might surge even higher and touch +1/8. If it does so, please follow the trend and buy at +1/8. Stop loss for that long trade will be 7/8. Likewise, if you buy at 1/8 and see the price falling down to trigger the stop loss set at -1/8, then sell at -1/8 and follow the trend. Stop loss for this short trade will be 1/8.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/11/01/murrey-math-trading-strategy-2/feed/2candidwriterHow To Access EFI System Partition On Windows 10?https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/14/how-to-access-efi-system-partition-on-windows-10/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/14/how-to-access-efi-system-partition-on-windows-10/#respondSun, 14 Oct 2018 01:39:13 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1606Accessing the EFI system partition is important to me because I keep on trying different linux-based operating systems. Removing the GRUB boot loader is a pain in the posterior – especially for “not-so-technologically-savvy”. After accessing the EFI system partition, anyone can delete the boot records created by GRUB – effectively removing it from the machine. Listed below are a set of commands that you are expected to enter in the Command Prompt to reach into the EFI system partition and delete the GRUB records.

Go to Settings –> Screen Time. You will find the option to disable Screen Time towards the bottom.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/09/iphone-battery-drain-after-installing-ios-12/feed/0candidwriterMurrey Math Trading Strategy 1https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/07/murrey-math-trading-strategy-1/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/07/murrey-math-trading-strategy-1/#commentsSat, 06 Oct 2018 18:30:04 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1592All those interested in Murrey Math now have a reason to rejoice. Starting this month, I will keep on posting several strategies that you can use to take advantage of the daily price movements in the stock and foreign exchange markets across the globe.

Sell at 7/8 or 8/8 or +1/8 and even +2/8 with the target of 4/8. Alternatively buy at 1/8 or 0/8 or -1/8 or -2/8. Once again, the target is 4/8. This is the core strategy Murrey implies throughout his courses and webinars available all over the internet.

Does this strategy work all the time? No it doesn’t. However, it works when the market ranges on a particular day/month/year. Over the years, I have found that even though prices tend to range a lot, the percentage of winning trades are extremely low. Quite often, I found the prices taking some rest once it reaches these points (7/8, 8/8, +1/8, +2/8, 1/8, 0/8, -1/8 and -2/8) and then surging through these prices as if they never existed.

I am listing this as the first strategy because this is exactly what Murrey wants us to do with the trading system he had discovered sometime at around 1992. As expected, I had spent quite a lot of time looking at this simple strategy only to theorize that it works well when the instrument you are trying to trade ranges a lot instead of trending. Perhaps it could also explain why Murrey asks us to focus on longer time frames.

Here is the entire strategy in pictorial form.

Stay tuned for the next strategy.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/10/07/murrey-math-trading-strategy-1/feed/2candidwriterBSNL Broadband Malware Redirects To Unwanted Siteshttps://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/30/bsnl-broadband-malware-redirects-to-unwanted-sites/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/30/bsnl-broadband-malware-redirects-to-unwanted-sites/#commentsSat, 29 Sep 2018 18:30:28 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1582For the past few months, I have noticed being redirected to malware-laden websites – especially when I am accessing the internet via BSNL broadband. Initially, I thought certain malware in my PC might be causing this issue. However, a scan with Malwarebytes did not turn up anything.

So I started searching online and lo I come across this detailed thread discussing the same issue. https://goo.gl/qKJ2SJ

All over India, people using BSNL broadband to access the internet have been facing pop-ups and directs to certain lesser known spam websites. And yet, BSNL officials are blissfully unaware of these happenings (as expected).

Changing the DNS or running an anti-virus scan on our personal computers does not help when BSNL gateways are infested with malware.

Some of the domains to which people are being redirected to include 1bcde, cobalten, newsprofin, speed-open2 and lp.easyziptab.

As per the above mentioned forum posts, the issue is somewhat omnipresent to anyone who uses BSNL ADSL Broadband, BSNL Fiber Broadband (FTTH) and even on BSNL Mobile Broadband (3G).

I hope the designated BSNL personnel takes note of this specific situation and fixes it at the earliest.

Update (Thursday, October 11, 2018): naganoadigei is yet another malware domain that we are being redirected to while using BSNL Broadband. I have found that using utilities like uBlock Origin and adding all these domains to the program under My Filters to be quite helpful.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/30/bsnl-broadband-malware-redirects-to-unwanted-sites/feed/2candidwriterUnder what market conditions does mean-reversion work better than trend-following?https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/23/under-what-market-conditions-does-mean-reversion-work-better-than-trend-following/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/23/under-what-market-conditions-does-mean-reversion-work-better-than-trend-following/#respondSun, 23 Sep 2018 05:23:22 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1579Here is an excellent article written by Laurent Bernut, the CEO of Alpha Security Capital

The article describes the pitfalls of both trend following and mean reversion trading strategies along with ample insight into developing a trading system using the so-called Common Sense Ratio.

Finance is one industry where there is no shortage of creativity. There is always a new strategy, investment vehicle, or asset class. This alphabet soup is confusing, particularly when it comes to assessing risk and reward across asset classes. Yet, there is a simple universal way to classify strategies. They fall into two buckets: either mean reversion or trend following. Simply said, the exit policy determines the win rate, which then shapes the return distribution.

Trend following strategies rely on the capital appreciation of a few big winners. Whether they follow stories, fundamentals, earnings or price momentum, stock pickers are trend followers. They may fail to appreciate being called trend followers, but their P&L distribution tells a different story.

Summary

Regardless of the asset class, there are only two types of strategies: mean reversion or trend following

Each strategy type has a specific risk profile, which require different risk metrics. Common Sense Ratio recaptures risk for all strategy types (Read this, it is important)

How to increase the win rate, gain expectancy and overall profitability depending on strategy type ?

I. The only two types of strategies: mean reversion or trend following

Over the years of patiently testing multiple algorithmic strategies, patterns in the return distribution repeated over and over. It eventually became apparent that strategies fall into two buckets: mean reversion or trend following. Attached are graphical representations of the gain expectancy of mean reversion and trend following strategies. The reason why the same patterns repeat themselves is simple: exit policy.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/09/23/under-what-market-conditions-does-mean-reversion-work-better-than-trend-following/feed/0candidwriterNifty 50 Index Weekly Trend (June 25 to June 29)https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/06/25/nifty-50-index-weekly-trend-june-25-to-june-29/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/06/25/nifty-50-index-weekly-trend-june-25-to-june-29/#respondMon, 25 Jun 2018 01:15:27 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1564In the previous trading week, the index opened at 10830.20. It made a high of 10837 and a low of 10701.20. For the week, it has closed at 10821.85. The different between the opening and the closing price is just 8.35 points and that itself is indicative of the trend less nature of the index at this point of time. During such trend less times, the top and bottom hunters end up making a killing while the trend followers get killed.

10826.03 is an important value to take into account at this point of time. The longer the index manages to stay above this value, the better its chances of drifting higher. The longer the index manages to stay below this value of 10826.03, we can see it sliding further down to revisit the week’s low value of 10701.

]]>https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/06/25/nifty-50-index-weekly-trend-june-25-to-june-29/feed/0candidwriterNifty 50 Index Weekly Trend (June 18 – June 22)https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/06/17/nifty-50-index-weekly-trend-june-18-june-22/
https://candidwriter.wordpress.com/2018/06/17/nifty-50-index-weekly-trend-june-18-june-22/#respondSun, 17 Jun 2018 15:28:29 +0000http://candidwriter.wordpress.com/?p=1562The Nifty 50 index opened at 10781.85, made a high of 10893.25, low of 10755.40 and eventually closed at 10817.70.

The longer the index stays below 10777, we can see it dwindling lower towards 10609 and 10404.

Else, if the index manages to stay above 10868, we can see the index rising towards 11025 or 11236.