Tehran benefits but role still unproven

Monday 17 July 2006 19.04 EDT
First published on Monday 17 July 2006 19.04 EDT

For a suspected nerve centre in a crisis that threatens to convulse the Middle East, the Tehran headquarters of Hizbullah displays a striking lack of grandeur.

Despite its supposedly close relationship with Iran's Islamic government, Hizbullah's local leadership is forced to share an unprepossessing five-storey white-painted building with Palestinian militant group Hamas in a narrow residential alley off Valiasr Street, the capital's main avenue.

But western officials who claim that the Iranian and Syrian governments support Hizbullah say little is overt about the relationships between Hizbullah and the governments in Tehran and Damascus.

Some senior officials have gone as far as accusing Iran of orchestrating the current conflict, pointing to Israeli claims that Iranian-made missiles have been used by Hizbullah and that Iran's elite revolutionary guards have assisted Hizbullah on the ground in Lebanon. Officials claim Tehran is trying to deflect international attention from its suspected nuclear weapons programme.

"This could be Iran flexing its muscles," one Tehran-based western diplomat said yesterday. "The timing looks interesting and we know the relationship between Iran and Hizbullah. All we can say for sure is that it's plausible and possible but we can only speculate." Hizbullah officials in Tehran declined to comment, and Iran has denied that it is arming or helping the group.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, yesterday visited Damascus for talks with Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, saying a ceasefire and an exchange of prisoners would be possible in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. The Syrian government marked the visit with pro-Lebanon demonstrations across the country. The Ministry of Information said "millions" had taken part.

Observers in Tehran dismissed suggestions that Iran had precipitated the crisis, but acknowledged that the Islamic regime stands to gain. "I don't believe Iran has the power to create a crisis like this but it can affect its course by, for example, encouraging Hizbullah to attack Haifa," said Saeed Leylaz, an analyst. "It can do things to prolong or shorten its duration. There is no doubt that the Islamic Republic benefits from this conflict. Nobody cares about Iran's nuclear case any more. And with the temperature rising, it's now very difficult for America to create another crisis in the region. Oil prices are also being driven up and that helps Iran."

Morad Vaesi, foreign editor of the pro-reformist Sarmayieh newspaper, said Iran's involvement was being exaggerated. "It is said Iran is inciting or encouraging Hizbullah but the group has reasons of its own to confront Israel. The Lebanese nation supports Hizbullah's stance, so there is no need for Iran to influence them."