Nigerian society and political behavior at all levels usually is shaped by patronage and clientage networks. Politically, there are few genuinely independent voters, in the sense that voters in, say, Vermont or Switzerland are completely free to vote for whomever they like. Clients usually vote as their patrons wish, and nearly everybody is both a patron and a client, from the top of society to rag pickers at the Lagos dump.

Nigeria’s presidential election is scheduled for February 16, 2019. The two largest parties, the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) completed their primaries last weekend. The APC unanimously selected President Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate. The PDP primary included a number of candidates, but the party chose former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

Biya now faces two major security threats. In the southeast, where the Anglophone minority predominates, there is an insurrection in response to decades of repression and marginalization by Biya’s government. In the far north of Cameroon, predominately Muslim, is also disaffected from Biya’s ostensibly Christian regime. Boko Haram is active there.