Should Broncos take the ball first?

If the Patriots lose the coin flip today, the Broncos are almost certain to defer and take the ball to open the second half.

The Broncos have kicked off to start 14 of 17 games this year. The games in which they got the ball first were against the New York Giants in game 2, New England Patriots in game 11 and San Diego Chargers in game 14.

The Broncos went 1-2 in those games; 13-1 in which they deferred or gladly accepted taking the ball second.

John Fox isn’t one who tinkers with proven strategies. But given the way the Patriots have become a run-based offense, should Fox consider taking the ball first today in the AFC championship game?

When a team falls behind, the run game disappears. If a team gets a lead, the run game becomes more pronounced. Getting the ball first and taking an early lead, in other words, would help remove a Patriot strength.

Then again Fox might want to employ strategies based on what works best for his team, not necessarily what may weaken the opponent. The Broncos prefer to defer because it often works out so they have the ball last in the first half and first in the second half. They feel they get an extra possession that way.

Plus it gives the defense a shot of confidence when you show belief it can stop the Pats from the start. Defense plays on emotion more than offense does.

Hey, we’ve analyzed everything else about this game. Might as well dissect the coin flip.