The number of staff sergeants selected for promotion to gunnery sergeant in 2014 is expected to drop by several hundred compared with last year, according to advanced copies of the message detailing the fiscal 2014 Gunnery Sergeant Selection Board.

The number of staff sergeants selected for promotion to gunnery sergeant in 2014 is expected to drop by several hundred compared with last year, according to advanced copies of the message detailing the fiscal 2014 Gunnery Sergeant Selection Board.

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The number of staff sergeants selected for promotion to gunnery sergeant in 2014 is expected to drop by several hundred compared with last year, according to advanced copies of the message detailing the fiscal 2014 Gunnery Sergeant Selection Board.

Manpower officials expect about 1,000 allocations for promotion to E-7, compared with more than 1,333 allocations when last year’s board was first announced. The recently obtained draft message is tentative, however, and some of the details could change with the official release of the first and subsequent messages leading up to the board in late April, manpower officials said. It was not immediately clear if the specific number of allocations might change, but in years past they have been tweaked leading up to the board. Last year, 60 additional slots for gunny opened up before the board finally convened. More than 1,390 sergeants were ultimately selected for promotion.

Despite fewer allocations, the opportunity to make gunny among staff sergeants who are considered in-zone will remain the same as last year, said Maj. Shawn Haney, a Manpower and Reserve Affairs spokeswoman at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Va. Last year, about 30.4 percent of E-6s in zone made the cut, the highest ratio in several years. That percentage is expected to hold steady throughout the drawdown.

Officials are working to maintain the selection opportunity by using force shaping measures — largely voluntary — and altering in-zone promotion eligibility windows based on time in grade. By shrinking the in-zone window, they can reduce the overall number of Marines considered, keep the percentage tapped for promotion relatively high, and prevent staff sergeants in any one military occupational specialty from stagnating.

These measures come as the service continues to draw down by about 5,000 Marines a year through 2017, when the Corps will arrive at an endstrength of about 174,000 troops. It is not clear how the proposed Defense Department budget, which foresees an end to sequestration and a final Marine endstrength of 182,000 personnel might alter the picture.

The forecast is not equally bright for all staff sergeants, however. In 41 MOSs,staff sergeants will likely be shut out for promotion, according to the draft message, which Marine Corps Times obtained Feb. 25. That number could also change before the board, but is significantly higher than the 18 specialties that were closed last year.

To maintain selection opportunity and upward mobility, and to prevent stagnation in overpopulated ranks and occupational specialties that have had significant backlogs in recent years, manpower planners are relying on programs like Voluntary Separation Pay and the Temporary Early Retirement Authority, which offer Marines either cash incentives to leave uniform early or waivers that allow them to maintain benefits without serving a full 20-year career.

While manpower officials are quite candid that competition for promotion will be tough throughout the drawdown, they note that without such force shaping measures, promotions would grind to a halt in some communities. In some cases they have credited programs like VSP and TERA with opening MOSs previously closed to promotion. There were zero allocations for promotion to 0369 infantry unit leader in 2012, for example, but it reopened in 2013. While more than twice as many specialties are closed this year, compared with last year, infantry unit leader and many more remain open.

The documents obtained by Marine Corps Times also offer some insight into promotion prospects for the junior enlisted ranks. In a system that promotes only to vacancies left by Marines who themselves picked up rank or left the service, solid promotion prospects for staff sergeants in a given MOS translate into a favorable promotion outlook for sergeants and corporals in the same specialty. Likewise, an MOS closed for selection to gunnery sergeant means that more junior Marines in the same job will have difficulty picking up rank in the year ahead.