North Korea shells South Korean island: Q&A

The attack on Yeonpyeong Island is the latest in a long-running game of
diplomatic cat and mouse in which North Korea periodically flexes its
military muscle in order to try and win concessions from the international
community.

11:33AM GMT 23 Nov 2010

Why has North Korea done this and what does it hope to achieve? This is being seen as yet another attempt to raise the diplomatic stakes, spook the financial markets and turn the region into a conflict zone. For Pyongyang, the hope that the US, South Korea and its allies will lose their nerve and agree to a resumption of the Six Party talks, with North Korea coming to the table from a position of greater strength.

Is this likely to happen? Not at the moment. North Korea, supported by China, has said it wants to rejoin stalled Six Party talks, however both Washington and Seoul have made it clear that negotiations cannot begin unless and until North Korea shows it is serious about giving up its nuclear capability.

China has urged the US to be more flexible, but the news this week that North Korea has opened a state-of-the-art uranium enrichment plant, which it has delighted in showing off to the world, and now this attack, is only going to further entrench the US and South Korean position.

Why attack these particular islands?

The Yeonpyeong Islands lie along the North's disputed maritime border with the South and have been scene of three naval skirmishes in 1999, 2002 and, most recently, last November when a North Korean patrol vessel was fired upon and set ablaze after crossing in South Korea waters.

The main island is just south of the Northern Limit Line, the border declared by United Nations after the 1950-53 war, but never recognised by Pyongyang or included in the Armistice Agreement that marked the end of hostilities. The attack symbolises the North's refusal to accept the UN line and, Pyongyang will hope, could strengthen their hand in any future negotiation to settle that border.

Is this attack likely to lead to another war?

No. Within minutes of the attack, South Korea's president Lee Myung-Bak called on his officials to ensure the "situation would not escalate", a call that was echoed by all the other parties involved in trying to resolve the Korean dispute.

North Korea may possess a million-man army and a nuclear weapon (which it has no means to deliver), but its outmoded armed forces are no match for South Korea which is backed by the United States, which also has nuclear weapons. This week the South even raised the possibility (quickly dismissed) of returning short-range nuclear weapons to the peninsula. Just to make the point to Pyongyang.

What can the UN do if South Korea refers the matter to them?

The UN has already imposed tough economic and military sanctions on North Korea after its illegal nuclear bomb and missile tests in 2009, but any further United Nations response is subject to a veto from China, the North's only international ally, and therefore like to be limited.

After the last major provocation by the North in March, when international investigators blamed Pyongyang for torpedoing a South Korea warship killing 46 sailors, the UN managed only a strongly-worded warning, and that after months of diplomatic horse-trading.

Are fresh sanctions likely?

No. After sinking of the South Korean warship the Cheonan in March, both China and Russia made clear that they believe sanctions are counterproductive and will simply drive North Korea further into isolation and increase of destabilising the regime of the ailing dictator Kim Jong-il.

China has also rebuffed suggestions that it use its aid to North Korea – Beijing essentially 'keeps the lights on' in North Korea – as a lever to bring Pyongyang to heel. As the North's ally during the 1950-53 war, China retains loyalty to North Korea despite being irritated and embarrassed by Pyongyang's belligerent approach to international diplomacy.

What can South Korea do?

As was seen after the sinking of the Cheonan, the South's retaliatory options are limited. Seoul knows that North Korea, with its bankrupt economy and decrepit infrastructure, has little to lose by such provocations, while the South will be seeking to reassure its financial markets.

The South, which has already stopped almost all humanitarian aid to the North, can step up its propaganda operations against the regime of Kim Jong-il, cut off remaining cross-border exchanges at a joint industrial compound. It has already announced the indefinite suspension of Red Cross talks scheduled for this Thursday to reunite families separated by the Korean War.

In the longer term, Seoul will use the incident as further support for its diplomatic position that talks with Pyongyang are impossible under current conditions.