Water cutbacks likely coming

With slim hope for rain on the horizon and Sonoma County asking North Bay water utilities to cut water usage by 20 percent, local water purveyors may also be seeing conservation measures in the near future, according to officials.

The Sonoma County Water Agency on Monday asked the cities and water districts it serves -- which receive water from the Russian River supply system -- to voluntarily reduce water consumption by 20 percent in keeping with Governor Jerry Brown's emergency drought declaration and request for 20-percent voluntary conservation.

"I would expect us to match or exceed that amount," said Sean White, general manager of the Russian River Flood Control and Water Conservation District.

The district sells water to eight water districts in the inland area from Redwood Valley to Hopland, including the city of Ukiah (although the city also has its own wells). The district's board has so far asked for "an unspecified, voluntary conservation" from those water purveyors, according to White.

He said the board is expected to decide Monday whether to adopt mandatory conservation by curtailing the contracted water supplies with the districts, or to define an amount of voluntary conservation to request.

According to a Monday statement from the Sonoma County Water Agency, Lake Mendocino and Lake Sonoma -- its two water supply reservoirs -- are historically low, with Lake Mendocino at 36 percent of its water supply capacity and Lake Sonoma at 65 percent capacity.

"Conditions are worse than during the 1977 drought," said SCWA Director Efren Carillo in the Monday statement. "We need at least 13 inches of rain to even get up to 1977 conditions."

So far, 0.19 inches of rain have fallen in the Ukiah Valley this calendar year, according to the National Weather Service. The valley has seen 2.68 inches of rainfall since the beginning of the water year we're in, which began in July and runs through June, according to NWS hydrologist Reginald Kennedy. A normal amount of rainfall during that time frame for this time of year is 21.3 inches, he said, meaning the region has only seen 13 percent of the rainfall it usually sees by early February.

Even with a measured 5.09 inches of rain since July four miles southwest of Ukiah, the current water year is the driest on record so far, according to Kennedy.

The Mendocino County Board of Supervisors declared a drought emergency Jan. 7 after more than a month without rain. The drought that has dried up tributaries, springs and private wells throughout Mendocino County and threats water supply in many areas.

The board appointed an ad-hoc committee to address local communities' water needs. The committee meets next Feb. 12 to "gauge the interest in moving forward with community meetings around the ongoing drought," according to a Monday statement from the Mendocino County Executive Office, and to hold a roundtable with water purveyors on issues they face.

The Ukiah Valley may be getting some rain Wednesday and possibly Thursday, but the chance of rain is just 25 percent, according to NWS meteorologist Brian Garcia.

"There is an area of low pressure marching down the coast, and it's sitting just offshore," Garcia said. "We're trying to determine the track it's going to take."

The farther the low-pressure system swings from the coast, the less chance of seeing any rain the Ukiah Valley can expect, he said, but so far, "trends are bringing it closer to the coast."

If the trend continues overnight, the Ukiah Valley's chances of rain could increase to 50 percent, according to Garcia. Nighttime lows are expected to dip into the low- to mid-20s by Thursday night as the low-pressure system passes, meaning motorists can expect icy conditions on the roads, he said.

Long-term weather models indicate that by Saturday, a weak warm front will move into the area and bring a 60-percent chance of rain. A cold front expected close on the heels of the warm front should put the chance of rain in Northwest California in the 80-percent range, he said.

What's difficult to predict with long-term modeling, Garcia said, is how much rain will fall and where.

"We have high hopes," he said.

Tiffany Revelle can be reached at udjtr@ukiahdj.com, on Twitter @TiffanyRevelle or at 468-3523.