Working Paper
Housing prices and the (in)stability of mortgage prepayment models: evidence from California
Mattey, Joe P.; Wallace, Nancy
(1998)
Most empirical models of mortgage terminations emphasize refinancing incentives related to interest rate movements. We consider three sources of risk that lead to observed mortgage payment terminations: interest-rate related refinancing, default, and moving. We estimate models that identify the relative importance or regional risk factors leading to termination, using data on mortgage and housing market activity in fifteen California counties from 1992 through 1996. As expected, we find that the time-series dynamics of interest rates and house prices are important determinants of the ...
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 98-05

Working Paper
A simple adaptive measure of core inflation
Cogley, Timothy
(1998)
This paper proposes a new measure of core inflation and compares it with several existing measures. The new measure is adaptive and is designed to track sudden and persistent movements inflation, such as those arising from changes in monetary policy regimes. the adaptive measure is a superior predictor of (locally) mean reverting components of inflation, and appears to filter out transients more effectively than existing measures.
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
, Paper 98-06