May 23, 2017

StormTALK! Tuesday Edition

DISCUSSION:Several challenges ahead when it comes to the timing of rainfall in WAVE Country. We have enough information to gauge the big picture setup, but it will be the details that won't get resolved until we reach each day. This means I would not cancel/alter any of your plans this weekend...but have a back up plan just in case.

Here is the breakdown:

Rest of today...A few spotty showers/sprinkles may drift in and graze our southern counties today. Mixed cloud layer sky otherwise and highs in the 70s.

Tonight:We will start to see impacts of the approaching low that will have somewhat of a warm front with it overnight/early Wednesday. Spotty showers/thunder will accompany the lead/eastern portion of the low.

Wednesday:The lead portion will be the heaviest that will sweep the area west to east from morning to afternoon. This is not a setup for severe weather, but there could be a bit of lightning pea size hail with it being so cold aloft. In addition. some very heavy downpours.Once the low moves right over us...it will shutdown the widespread/heavier rain down to just spotty showers for the afternoon/evening.

Thursday:The low will be still in the area ...drifting to our north. This will put us on the cooler side of things. Rainfall looks spotty early in the day. In fact, we may even start with a few rays of sun. That will not last long at all as the cold air aloft will quickly react to any heating of the day. This will form bands of chilly rain showers and perhaps a bit of a breeze as well. Highs will struggle in the 60s for this period.

Friday:The low leaves us alone. We get the change to warm up. It will not stay quiet long as another warm front will move in Friday night with t-storms.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND:It looks busy at times with multiple waves of thunderstorms that will track along the warm front itself. The front will waver north by Saturday. These setups can feature organized clusters of t-storms that can produce severe weather. Day and night. So we'll have to monitor this period carefully. Just note there will be several dry periods mixed in as well. It will all be about timing.

NEXT WEEK:NW flow aloft will keep the front machine in action. This will keep our highs below normal with several chances for rain. This may last until mid-June.