Fantasy Football Draft Strategy and Recap

Draft Strategy and Recap

I decided to participate in one of FFToolbox's $99 Draft-n-Go leagues. Every Tuesday night at 9 pm EST, we here at FFToolbox offer Draftmaster leagues. They're simple and offer big money to the winners. In this draft, there are 12 teams and 26 rounds. For more details about the league, go here. The key caveat is the best ball scoring. Every week, your lineup is optimized for the best possible start. There is no in-season management, so once your team is drafted, it's ready to go all season long. The starting roster requirements are 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 PK, and 1 team defense.

The best ball format lends itself to many divergent fantasy strategies. Since money is on the table, many players are apt to take larger risks. Fantasy owners will reach for a player they have a hunch will overachieve since a sleeper on the bench can hit a big week and push a team to victory. Let's walk through my selections round-by-round and discuss the specific tactics that come into play in a Draftmaster league.

This is a standard first round. After showing up a few minutes late to the draft, I was happy to see LeSean McCoy slip a pick or two into my welcoming arms. McCoy is coming off his worst year and has typically been a Top 5 pick. Assuming the preseason hype is even half-true, the Eagles will be operating a high-tempo offense that should keep McCoy as productive as ever. In the first round, a best player available strategy is the safe play.

Other player considered: WR A.J. Green. Securing a top wideout in a PPR league is vital. That extra point gives elite receivers even more value.

Picking at or near the end of the first round was an ideal situation for what I wanted to do, which was grab two backs in the first two rounds. As you can see, there was a solid run on receivers in the first half of the second round. I could have also selected a receiver, but from my understanding of the game, WR scoring is more volatile than RB scoring. For example, Dwayne Bowe scores 15 TDs and the next, he scores five. Point is, you can get lucky (or unlucky) at receiver since players emerge (or disappear) quite often. Since I would be waiting 19 picks until my next choice, I wanted to secure another RB. MJD is a first-round talent with a second-round price tag. He could finish as a Top 5 back and also contributes heavily as a pass catcher, further increasing his scoring potential. With two backs locked in, it's time to fill up the rest of my roster.

Other player considered: WR Dez Bryant. Hard not to like Bryant's 2012 season. He seemed to click in the second half and the numbers were there to prove it.

Round 3 was chock full of receivers and because of it, I had to play catch up at the position later in the draft. On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers fell into my lap and he felt like a nice value selection. While each player in this round has a certain level of risk, as most position players do, Rodgers stands out as the safest pick. He could lead the league in fantasy scoring and it would be a shock to see him not perform up to his own high standards. When breaking the seal at a position, as I did here, you have to consider what you gain in doing so and which player you might end up with if you wait a round. It turns out taking Rodgers in the third may have been a slight reach since Matt Ryan ended up plummeting all the way to… well I don't want to ruin the surprise.

Other player considered: None. The elite receivers were gone and most teams drafted their second receiver here. With two RBs already in tow, rather than take a slight risk at WR, I wanted first dibs on a QB.

It had to be a wide receiver here and luckily, another good player stuck around long enough for me. It'll surprise most fantasy fans if Vincent Jackson repeats his 2012 numbers. He had a career-year and finished just outside the Top 5 at his position. What's also appealing about him is he is the quintessential big-play receiver. Consistency has its place in a best ball league, but you want a guy who scores points in big bunches when he cracks your starting lineup. When Jackson disappears, he won't start in this league. He had eleven games in PPR with at least 14 fantasy points.

Other players considered: WRs Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne. Both players are still getting it done, but this was a snap decision. I anticipate the Colts become a bit more conservative with a new offensive coordinator. Colston should produce consistently if healthy. He has his share of big games though and would have been a good pickup as well.

Once again, it had to be a receiver here. Tight end was a possibility but when Jason Witten was selected, I figured I'd wait a little for Tony Gonzalez. In the fantasy writers community, if there is such a thing, there is a trait known as "post-hype." What this means is sometimes a player will receive a bunch of praise as a possible sleeper or breakout player, and then he underperforms. Since this will disappoint many fantasy owners, the following season will usually see a considerable drop in the player's average draft position. In 2012, Brown was a late third to fourth round pick. Today, he is dropping into the fifth and sixth rounds because of his post-hype comedown. I love Brown as a post-hype surprise in 2013 now that he is Big Ben's top target.

Other player considered: WR Pierre Garcon. If I could be assured that Garcon AND Robert Griffin III were going to play all 16 games, Garcon would have been my guy.

Torrey Smith is a beast in a best ball format. Since arriving in the league, he has been very inconsistent, but when he hits, Smith scores a lot of points. The WRs were really flying off the board at this point (about six per round it seemed) so I went with Smith since he is assuming a larger role in Baltimore's offense due to the departure of WR Anquan Boldin.

Other players considered: WR Greg Jennings & TE Tony Gonzalez. Considering who I ended up with at TE, Gonzalez would have been an improvement. Since this league requires three starting WRs, I was scrambling a bit to get quality starters and most of the No. 1 WRs were likely to be off the board by the next round. Jennings is the new WR1 in Minnesota but I don't usually like receivers joining new teams since there tends to be an adjustment year. Then again, with few other options at receiver, Christian Ponder may look for Jennings often.

A small run on tight ends in the middle of the round hurt me. I would've loved any one of those guys, but that's the way it goes. I wait one more round for a TE and ended up with Miles Austin. I feel the Cowboys get a bad rap because it's popular to hate on them. Austin played most of the year banged up and still had some good moments. With defenses draped all over Dez Bryant, Austin should exceed expectations.

Other player considered: WR Josh Gordon. I think Gordon has a lot of potential in the long-term. What scares me off and really, what pushes him this far is his quarterback situation. Put him on any other team and he's a Top 20 lock by the end of the year.

This is where the draft showed its true colors. Seven QBs go in Round 8. Matt Ryan, who has an average draft position of 42.3 across three major fantasy league providers, is selected No. 84 overall. This will never happen in league full of your friends. In the end, my unfamiliarity with some of the finer details of the best ball strategy hurt me. Yes, I'm bitter about it. I should've drafted eight QBs to start the league and said "HA! Now what?!" As I came to later learn, in "high stakes" fantasy football and the best ball format in general, most owners prefer to wait for a QB and they clearly wait a while. For Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs, they went about two rounds later than expected. Tier 3 QBs fell three rounds. After that, it began to balance out since having multiple good QBs maximizes your odds that one of them will have a good game.

Other players considered: TEs Greg Olsen and Kyle Rudolph. I sleep on tight ends and this draft shows that. In a best ball format, this probably isn't wise since I can't hit the waiver wire if one of my guys doesn't pan out. Securing at least one great player at each position would have been the smart move.

Eight tight ends come off the board in these two rounds. Of the TEs drafted, I do like the guys I ended up with. Daniels has a great shot to finish with the second-most targets and receptions on his team. The Giants and Eli Manning have a pretty good track record of making the most of their tight ends. Myers has above-average hands and catches everything in his general vicinity. So while not flashy or anything to write home about, I've got two warm bodies to hold me over.

Other player considered: TEs Jermichael Finley and Brandon Pettigrew. These two TEs from the NFC North have breakout potential which is why they were drafted much higher in previous years. If either of them fulfills their potential, they could be steals. Problem is, they've burned me in the past and I'm reluctant to take a chance on them again.

This is where strategies really begin to diverge. Some guys are securing reliable backups (Eli Manning) and some are reaching for young players with breakout potential (Joseph Randle). For my team, I wanted depth at running back. The best ball format really limits Jacquizz Rodgers and Mikel Leshoure's impact. Between the both of them, they might only start a few games. My mindset was to get players in good situations. Detroit and Atlanta both tend to score a lot of points and they are both one injury away from being starters.

Other players considered: Any backup QB. Drafting Aaron Rodgers is great, but he does have a bye week!

After waiting too long for a TE, I didn't want the same to happen with a team defense. Chicago forced a lot of turnovers, scored a few defensive TDs, and David Hester is well-established as a good returner. Drafting Holmes is a value pick. Even though the Jets' offense has been awful, Holmes is their No. 1 receiver and can be productive. If Geno Smith takes over, history has shown that rookie QBs lean heavily on their best receiver.

Other players considered: Any backup QB & WR Darrius Heyward-Bey. At this point, I was talking myself out of taking a backup QB. I felt confident in Rodgers, but I also didn't fully realize the benefits of having a better backup who might pop with a good game here and there. I like Heyward-Bey's value. He has underachieved for most of his career, but getting out of Oakland is for the best. Reggie Wayne will be a great mentor to him.

Both of these picks really embody how I view and play fantasy football. I'm trying to look ahead and predict what will unfold. Some people strategize by loading up on rookies since a few will to break out every year. I drafted Goodson because Chris Ivory is very injury-prone. As for McGahee, I don't agree with why fantasy owners are shying away from him. He is the only proven commodity in Denver's backfield. Montee Ball won't sniff the field until he has his pass protections on lock because it's literally Peyton Manning's neck on the line. I understand why McGahee isn't going in the first ten rounds, but in the 16th, a potential No. 1 RB is worth it.

Other players considered: WR Malcom Floyd, QB Jake Locker and a backup team defense. Floyd has had trouble staying healthy and the Chargers are overcrowded at receiver. San Diego's offense has to improve before I trust any of them again. Locker's ability to run makes him an interesting deep sleeper candidate. He has talent around him so there aren't any more excuses for him. None of the defenses really jumped out at me so I felt it was best to wait.

Kickers were flying off the board and since you need two of them, waiting didn't seem wise. Bryant will kick at least 45 extra points and comes from a high-octane offense that plays in a dome. Ponder is a bit of a wild-card to me. He will probably never throw 30 TDs or 4,000 yards; however, he improved in his second season and his running game will protect him. The brief career of Williams has been unlucky given his multiple injuries and limited playing time. He's still in the mix to challenge Mendenhall for playing time given his agility and cutting ability. Now I have both backs so whichever one succeeds, I'll be there to reap the rewards.

Other players considered: WR Donald Jones. Someone is bound to step up in Foxboro. Tom Brady isn't going to spend half the season handing the ball off. Jones is a boom or bust pick and one of the few receivers the Pats have buried on their depth chart with a good amount of experience.

Between Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill, the passing touchdowns have to go to someone. Securing both gives me the Jets' best two receivers, for whatever that's worth. Coming out of Georgia Tech, Hill was about as raw as they come. Hopefully he can take the leap and hone his craft further in his second season. Celek depends heavily on how things pan out with Michael Vick. He's a depth pick who underperformed last season. You can do a lot worse for a TE3. If there's one team you want to avoid in fantasy football, it's the Jets. However, by taking their defense, I now have five of them on my squad. I'm either a genius or a fool. The fantasy gods shall decide.

Other players considered: Redskins defense & RB Daniel Thomas. Washington really turned it up at the end of the season. They overcame a few key injuries and should be even better this year. Thomas, when healthy, has displayed flashes of talent. Lamar Miller, while blessed with speed and talent, isn't a sure thing in his second year, which may force Thomas into a larger role.

Not much to see here, but basically I drafted two more RBs, giving me ten total. Given the steady stream of news regarding Trent Richardson and his health, Hardesty could see some starts. In hindsight, I should have drafted one fewer RB and one more WR. The added depth gives me a leg up on everyone because my week-to-week scoring should be safe. RBs tend to produce more reliably given that they touch the ball more frequently. Given how often backs are hurt these days, I'm confident between Hardesty, Leshoure, Dwyer, Goodson, McGahee and Williams, one of them is going to play far more than anyone could project. Kolb as my QB3 is embarrassing, I waited too long, what can I say? Hopefully he stays firmly seated on my bench.

Some final thoughts… I drafted too many running backs but I'm positive I'll have reliable scoring at my flex spots. I would've liked to draft two more WRs from Rounds 8 to 12. Speaking of those rounds, they are my least favorite in hindsight. Waiting 18 rounds for a QB2 really illustrates how I felt like I was playing catch-up a large portion of the draft. By the time I felt comfortable taking a backup QB, the best player left in my estimation was Ponder. It should be fascinating to see how things pan out at wide receiver and tight end for me. I don't have a guy who is a lock for 80 receptions and since this is a PPR league, that's not a good thing. But that's why they play the game, right? Wish me luck!