Met Council projects outlying suburbs will grow faster

A person walks in the small downtown of Lake Elmo. A new Metropolitan Council forecast predicts the population of Lake Elmo nearly tripling by the year 2040 to reach 21,200 people, up from 8,061 residents in 2010. (Pioneer Press: Scott Takushi)

The Twin Cities metro area is growing at a rapid clip, though not quite as fast as previously anticipated, and more than half of that growth will occur outside the urban core and developed, first-ring suburbs.

In fact, 47 percent of new households and new housing coming to the region by the year 2040 are expected to be situated in developing suburbs, and another 9 percent likely will land in outlying rural areas -- for a total of 3.67 million people. That's up from 2.85 million people in 2010.

That's the forecast from the Metropolitan Council, which released city-level growth projections Wednesday. Based in large part on revised U.S. Census figures, the Met Council's 30-year forecasts trim about 70,000 people from the preliminary numbers released in September.

Woodbury Central Park. The city of Woodbury is expected to grow from 61,961 residents currently to 87,200 by 2040, according to a new Metropolitan Council projection. (Pioneer Press file)

Nevertheless, the metro area is growing like gangbusters. The council predicts 400,000 new households by the year 2040, 17 percent of which will be in the central cities, 27 percent in the fully developed suburbs, 47 percent in the developing suburbs and 9 percent in rural areas.

Over the past five months, the Met Council met with city and suburban government officials to finetune its projections, and heard that suburban and rural communities felt the projections were too low. More-developed areas felt their projections were too high, given their more limited land supply.

According to the new forecast, Eagan would grow from 64,206 to 80,200 residents between 2010 and 2040, an increase of 25 percent. Woodbury, likewise, would grow from 61,961 residents to 87,200.

That's a sizable uptick in people, homes and households, but the new forecast predicts the population of Lake Elmo in Washington County nearly tripling by the year 2040 to reach 21,200 people, up from 8,061 residents in 2010. In Scott County, Belle Plaine's population will double from 6,661 residents to 13,300, according to the Met Council.

Based in part on feedback from those cities and others, the Met Council tweaked the formulas it uses to make projections, including the rate of residential land development, land redevelopment costs and the maximum amount of housing capacity per city.

Outlet mall under construction in Eagan. The city of Eagan is expected to grow from 64,206 currently to 80,200 residents by 2040, according to a new Metropolitan Council projection.

The next revision to regional and local forecasts is expected in May, and results are expected to be folded into the Met Council's "Thrive MSP 2040" long-term plan. The projections can be found online at metrocouncil.org.