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Monday, September 12, 2005

Katrina, Boyd, and OODA-loops

I can't write it write now, but I would love to see some experienced essayist write an analysis of Katrina response decision making using Col. Boyd's maneuver warfare theories to illustrate how Katrina and the flood clearly got inside the government decision-making cycle.

Really, it's a classic example, and probably the best example of an enemy getting inside a U.S. OODA loop we've had in a long time.

Heck, it'd be a pretty good ROTC writing assignment as well.

Why did interagency communication fail?Why did our battletracking fail? Were county and state EOCs even battle tracking effectively? Do they even know how to?

Were they using modern digital systems to battle track, so that information could be transmitted elsewhere?

Were EOCs using standard brevity codes to ease up phone traffic?

Were ops channels overhwelmed with traffic while Admin-log channels and G2 channels fell silent, creating an information bottleneck between NO and Louisiana, and between Louisiana and state?

If I have time, I'll try and address this later, as I am an AFROTC cadet (unlike the rest of the USAF, though, I actually know who Col. Boyd is and somewhat understand the O-O-D-A loop).

Anyway, I think the short answer is that the various disaster response agencies are not nearly as net-centric as they should be, and as we've come to expect from the U.S. military.

Actually, come to think of it, if we're talking about the U.S. military, the Katrina disaster response really reminds me of Grenada, in that there were some major comms fuck-ups. The fact that the media had to inform Brown is reminiscient of calls for air support having to be routed through the Pentagon.

Bottom line? The agencies fell short in sharing information, probably due to a combination of poor leadership, outdated and non-net-centric comms equipment, and poor planning/training. This lack of information sharing caused the responses from all levels of government to be indadequte and too slow, because it took too long to observe.

When you do not get information in a timely manner, you cannot orient to the information properly.

Adding to the problem was a risk-adverse bureaucracy (again, at all levels of government), and a Mayor and Governor who seemed, at times, paralyzed by in-action. This meant that decision-making also took too long, since no one was able to act decisively.

Obviously, when you take too long to observe, orient, and decide, your action is already behind that of the "enemy."

You do want a lot of operations info. I wanted to know if the State's, Parrishes'/Counties', and Cities' respective EOCs actually maintaned journals and logged in the comms (incoming & outgoing) including requests for support. This info would hi-light the situations that were not acted on in a timely manner. Un-actioned situations would most likely be attributted to a gross lack of indentifying the situation as a high(er?) priority. Murphy's law of combat. "In combat hard things become simple, simple things become hard." Or some such.

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