Gameweek 8 Preview – Back Again

We prepare for Gameweek 8 in this edition of the Friday Foreplay by producing captain picks, investigating the heavy hitters, and speculating on possible punts.

The international break saw many Premier League players hit top form with their countries:

Silva was instrumental in Spain’s win over Scotland and recorded two goals and an assist.

Bale played so well that Gary Speed saw fit to single him out for praise.

Ramsey was impressive and pulled the strings in midfield for Wales.

Nasri scored for France and Dzeko scored in both of Bosnia’s games.

Young, Kyut, Larsson, Pedersen, Ivanovic, and Olson also scored.

Remember that the game previews are in most cases short-term recommendations based on the next Gameweek. You should pick most of your squad for the long-term results, with a few players up for rotation since you only get one free substitution each week. The following recommendations should always be in consideration when picking your team for the Gameweek:

Regurgitated recommendation 1: Captain one of your best attacking players because the bonus point system favors goal scorers.

Regurgitated recommendation 3: Avoid silly mistakes in picking injured players by using injury information from the Physio Room and the suspension list from the official FA site.

Captain Picks

Basing the captain picks on the above regurgitation and the analysis below we arrive at:

Wayne Rooney, simply because of the form he is in at the moment.

Silva, for his form and a home game.

Van Persie, for a home game against a down-in-the-dumps Sunderland.

Differential: Sturridge and Wright-Phillips.

Big Hitters

The biggest matchup of the Gameweek is Liverpool v Manchester United. However, high Fantasy returns aren’t guaranteed for either set of players. Rooney and Nani are the obvious choices for United and a bet on Suarez at home against a leaky United defence is reasonable. A counter to that bet is that Vidic is back from injury as well as Cleverley, who could add some urgency to the midfield. I would not play either team’s defensive players, as clean sheets are unlikely.

Manchester City is at home against Aston Villa and Silva looks likely to pick up Fantasy points following his display for Spain against Scotland. Dzeko is set to start upfront as Aguero is injured and Tevez is banned following his strop in Munich. If there are goals to be found, Silva and Dzeko will be involved.

If Van Persie is going to justify his price, a home game against Sunderland is exactly the kind of game that see his Fantasy returns in the double figures. If you own him, you should be captaining him here.

Clean Sheets

Last Gameweek saw five clean sheets, with predictable ones coming from Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Fulham at home against possible relegation candidates (although QPR could be safe this season after the Fernandes buyout).

Swansea should now be considered candidates after four consecutive home clean sheets. The have also only conceded one goal per game away from home apart from the four goals conceded against Manchester City in the first Gameweek.

Remember to tread carefully, rather focusing on attacking points until defensive patterns are clear. That being said the clean sheet candidates are:

Chelsea at home against a toothless Everton is probably the most obvious clean sheet potential of the Gameweek. From Chelsea, Bosingwa also offers the possibility of assists and goals.

Manchester City playing at home is a reasonable bet. Kompany is ever-present and reasonably priced.

Norwich and Swansea games have been low-scoring, with both teams averaging around a goal per game. The game could easily end in two clean sheets. Vorm and Ruddy are cheap goalkeepers worthy of considering in a goalkeeper rotation system.

You should generally gamble on defenders playing at home. Thus, if you don’t have defenders from the above teams, other possible options are QPR at home against Blackburn, Newcastle v Tottenham, and Stoke at home against Fulham.

Taking a Punt

Di Santo at home against Bolton. Bolton have conceded more goals in their first 7 games of the season than any other team in Premier League history.

Sturridge will have space on the right flank should Baines venture forward and Distin asked to cover.

Gervinho is back for Arsenal and will be looking to re-start his season with a positive impact.

Wright-Phillips is likely to cause the porous Blackburn defence problems with his speed and QPR will look to bounce back after their 0 – 6 thumping against Fulham.

Good luck, use your free transfer wisely, and please comment below.

Comments

It is interesting to note that the bulk of Arsenal’s goals from upfront have come from RVP. Gervinho (8.9) and Chamakh (8.1) have been a major let down. I wouldn’t even take a punt on Gervinho. Sturridge should be a good one for a punt as he is on form, but is competing with the likes of Anelka, Drogba and Torres (currently suspended). SWP has proven potential, but he has not shown that yet with big FPL points for QPR. Di Santo seems a reasonable punt, due to his form this season, his low pice (5.7) and place at Wigan as their main striker.

Agree on both Gervinho and Chamakh. Even though Gervinho got an assist in the first minute, he was quiet for the rest of the match. He could improve later on in the season. For now, I would not recommend him.

Your punts look good but I would be a little wary of both Ramsey and R. Taylor (even though I have both in my team). Wenger has talked of having to protect Ramsey from playing too much and I don’t know if R. Taylor will keep his starting place with Davide Santon know fit for Newcastle.

Sturridge has the same problem when Torres returns from suspension, although he is playing more from the right side rather than upfront. But then he has to compete with Anelka, Malouda, and Kalou.

There are tough choices for the punts this year. Makes the game more interesting.

Sure, I have the benefit of hindsight here, which is always 20/20, but there are a couple of really odd things in this article. Firstly, Rooney’s supposedly great form. He hasn’t had a good fantasy outing in about a month. Secondly, how could you miss Stoke playing at home for a clean sheet prediction? You even linked to PLfantasy’s strength of schedule which predicts both a clean sheet for Stoke at home and a high-scoring game between Norwich and Swansea. I was so sure of Stoke keeping a clean sheet I nearly captained Begovic.

Thirdly, Bolton conceding more than any other team in Prem history is an utterly meaningless statement when you consider they’ve played five of the six best clubs in the whole league. Before Saturday they’d only conceded two goals to any side not challenging for a Champions League spot (or Arsenal), which is a much more relevant stat.

Other than that, I can’t fault you for picking Silva and Dzeko because most people wouldn’t have seen them getting dropped. Nice hit on Sturridge too.

1. It’s a month since he has had a double digit Gameweek, but in the two games in between he had a goal and an assist. Even though it’s not stellar, that’s hardly poor returns. Perhaps my biggest miss was not putting Van Persie at top with a home game. After all, I am advocating playing the fixtures.

2. Stoke at home: A bad miss for sure. I probably let my feelings get in the way of a logical decision there. With Fulham having a 6 goal game last Gameweek I felt unsure about the clean sheet. But advocating a clean sheet for Swansea over Stoke was foolish, I have to concede. Let’s call it an intuition fail.

3. Bolton’s defence: Granted, it is a sensationalist statement, but still a quite interesting one. They are bound to concede less against worse opponents, but my point was that I would not bet on their defence this season. Against the same five opponents in the same fixtures last year, they conceded 13 goals, vs. 18 this season. That’s a goal more per game, although it is a small sample. To be fair, City and Liverpool are stronger this year and United and Chelsea were in fine form when facing Bolton.

It’s looking to be a tough season predicting the lineups. I still think that Rooney, Silva, and Nani should be rotated seldom enough to still be considered elite options.

Again, thanks for the comment. I would rather not have made the Stoke mistake and was strangely even considering buying Shawcross (went for Kompany instead). I hope you got some value from the preview.

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