Quinnipiac: Simmons Edges Dodd

1. If the two thousand ten election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were – Chris Dodd the Democrat, Rob Simmons the Republican, for whom would you vote?
….
Dodd – 42%Simmons – 43%

That is astonishing. Simmons does especially well in the second district, but incredibly the two are tied in the first district, 44%-44%. Yes, the first district, a Democratic stronghold.

Dodd fares better against Sam Caligiuri, defeating him 47%-34%. Dodd is still not above 50%, however, against a relatively unknown state senator.

Dodd’s job approval ratings are actually up to 49% from 41% last month, suggesting that his mortgage issues are helping to drag him down. Another big problem for Dodd is that when asked if they approve of the job Dodd is doing as head of the banking committee, only 32% said yes, while 50% said no.

These numbers are nothing short of catastrophic for a longtime incumbent like Dodd.

Time to consider retirement?

Rell, Obama Popular

There’s good news for Jodi Rell and Barack Obama–Connecticut voters still like them. Rell’s approval rating is sky-high at 75%, while Obama’s is slightly lower at 67%. Rell also gets high marks for her handling of the economy and the state budget.

These numbers have to be pretty soft. Everyone but Dodd has been controlling the narrative until now — once his campaign kicks into gear and he goes on the air, people will remember the fuzzy feelings they have towards Dodd.

Having seen the harm done to Senator Dodd by his lack of forthrightness about his Countrywide mortgages, I’ve got to agree that if Dodd can’t answer the GOP’s questions about his real estate dealings and his financial relationships with Edward Downe Jr., –then it time for Senator Dodd to retire. (in favor of Dick Blumenthal or someone else.)

It’s not fun to point it out, but it is Dodd’s ego alone that has put what should be a safe seat at terrible risk. If Dodd had sunk so low by fighting for Dem causes, I’d have his back to the end. But instead it’s my Dem causes that are suddenly at risk.

Again, Senator Dodd needs to prove that there isn’t a Ted Stevens/John Rowland type scandal lurking
in regards to his Galway cottage and his old D.C. condo. The GOP isn’t going to quit asking about his financial dealings, and if things were indeed on the up-and-up, now is the time to prove so.

This is a terrible story for Dodd, but I am not sure how Simmons, a six year Congressman, can claim “new blood”. I think this poll plays out better for Caligiuri, or even Kudlow, who both kept Dodd under 50%, with minimal name recognition.

This is a terrible story for Dodd, but I am not sure how Simmons, a six year Congressman, can claim “new blood”. I think this poll plays out better for Caligiuri, or even Kudlow, who both kept Dodd under 50%, with minimal name recognition.

I agree. Caligiuri has much more potential for growth, and he’s already in the mid 30s (which is amazing considering his name recognition). Dodd/Caligiuri reminds me of Simmons/Gedenson, when Simmons was the unknown, or Murphy/Johnson when Murphy was the unknown.

Dodd is finished, and we can only hope his ego and arrogance keeps him in the race until the bitter end. When an unremarkable former Congressman beats a five term incumbent Senator, there is more than blood in the water – And a good show by new GOP darling Sam Caligiuri. Once his name gets out more, his numbers will only go up.

These numbers have to be pretty soft. Everyone but Dodd has been controlling the narrative until now — once his campaign kicks into gear and he goes on the air, people will remember the fuzzy feelings they have towards Dodd.

Everyone seems to think these numbers are bad but they really aren’t. Yes, Dodd is a long-term incumbent. But Rob Simmons is a generic Republican with high name recognition within his party. If Caligiuri had these numbers, Dodd would be shitting himself. The election is a year and a half away……. the only thing this poll tells us is two things we already knew: Dodd has taken a big hit because of Countrywide and Simmons has high name recognition among Republicans.

The Rell numbers, on the other hand, are something actually worth talking about. WOW.

What Matt W, do you think there is a problem with Rell’s 69-23% favorability numbers, among Dems?!

For the record I’ve told Susie B., and Ned, (and I will tell Dan), that if in 2009 Dems don’t get together, on message, and make the case against Rell and divided government, — we might as well not bother in 2010.

“If Dodd can’t answer the GOP questions?” How come when a Republican gets accused of something he has to answer to the Democrats, the newspapers, the unions and the “good government” people. Hey where are those good government people? Dodd only has to answer to the Republicans? Weird how that works.

I’d love to know Tom Swan’s take on this? lol!!! I’m sure he’d rather be eating a cheesburger in his spare time than come to this board but he was soo passionate about good goverment that it would be great to get his insight.

How about Andy Sauer…his commitment towards good government is just as phoney. Guarantee the next time a Repub gets int rouble he’ll be out there calling for new campaign finance laws. Two dopes!!!

For the record I’ve told Susie B., and Ned, (and I will tell Dan), that if in 2009 Dems don’t get together, on message, and make the case against Rell and divided government, — we might as well not bother in 2010.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say they don’t listen to you. And I don’t mean just as a matter of practice.

Rell’s popularity isnt made up…..the public just simply has a good impression of her…as a realistic moderate republican. Is she unbeatable in 2010 ? no one is….but it will take someone who runs a flawless campaign and all the rest of the intangibles have to break for the domocrats.At this early stage it is doubtful, but there is time.

I do like Dodd….no surprise there…if any of his staff is peering into this blog please, please ask him to be more forthcoming on the information regarding his old condo…home in Ireland and his countryside mortgage. The public is not happy with what they perceive as stalling and it has infected his numbers with all polling.

I do like Dodd….no surprise there…if any of his staff is peering into this blog please, please ask him to be more forthcoming on the information regarding his old condo…home in Ireland and his countryside mortgage. The public is not happy with what they perceive as stalling and it has infected his numbers with all polling.

If coming clean was less damaging than the stonewall, why wouldn’t they have done so already?

absolutely right! no way we can do this without a tax increase, and no way we can do it without wealthy people contributing more. if you are rich you need to start paying your fair share.

How about you just not spend as much money? I don’t have the figures in front of me but I know that spending in Connecticut has far outstripped inflation. What are we getting for all that additional spending?

I seem to recall I-84 having to be rebuilt through Waterbury / Southington because of substandard work / fraud. Perhaps we can waste less state resources on criminals bent on ripping off the taxpayers? That’d be nice for a change.

Dodd hasn’t done an honest days work in his life. He has taking money along with his buddy Barney from the banking executives from Fannie and Freddie while preventing legislation that would have regulated them. He and Barney watched the entire subprime crisis unfold and did nothing. And now they are both entrusted with fixing the problem. What a joke. The entire Democrat leadership, Reid, Pelosi, Dodd, Frank, Murtha should all go for being ethically challenged.

One of the biggest mistakes in politics (or War or Life) is to underestimate your opponent. Dodd is wounded right now and when anyone is backed into a corner they will fight harder to get out.

With that said, Simmons numbers are great right now. Look at the CD’s where he has the lowest Name ID — the 4th and 5th — the EXACT areas where a GOP candidate can get the most gain. Simmons upside is huge.

The other GOP candiates both are at 34 percent. Seems that ANYONE can be against Dodd and get 34 percent…so that is the negative base on Dodd right now.

Bottom line: the GOP NEEDS Dodd to stay in the race to have a chance in 2010. If the GOP scares Dodd out, Blumie at 81% Fav will come in a steal the seat.

One of the biggest mistakes in politics (or war or life) is to underestimate your opponent. Dodd is wounded right now and when anyone is backed into a corner they will fight harder to get out.

With that said, Simmons numbers are great right now. Look at the CD’s where he has the lowest Name ID — the 4th and 5th — the EXACT areas where a GOP candidate can get the most gain. Simmons upside is huge.

The other GOP candiates both are at 34 percent. Seems that ANYONE can be against Dodd and get 34 percent…so that is the negative baseline on Dodd right now.

Bottom line: the GOP NEEDS Dodd to stay in the race to have a chance in 2010. If the GOP scares Dodd out, Blumie at 81% Fav will come in and steal the seat.

But Rooster, you are right. Without a stubborn Dodd, you guys have no chance.

Ah, Scooper….we semi-agree again…albeit for different reasons. First Calhoun, now the fact that the GOP needs Dodd to run.

Your problem is whom amongst you in the CT Dems can have the “talk” with Dodd to tell him he’s cooked? Somehow I don’t see your State Chair Nancy Dinardo having the gravitas to pull that conversation off, do you?

You can “draft Dick” all you want….Dodd’s running because no one in your party can stand up to him.

absolutely right! no way we can do this without a tax increase, and no way we can do it without wealthy people contributing more. if you are rich you need to start paying your fair share.

the dems proved last night that we would have to cut all those state employees, close prisons and college campuses without a tax increase. let’s do it already!

Yikes. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: You’re scary, pal. Even PoopyScoopy, who has the patent on drinking the Dem Kool-Aid, isn’t this far gone.

The only thing the Dems proved last night is that Chris “Six Figures” Donovan’s press aide is making $164,999 a year more than he’s worth, and Donny “Can’t Count” Williams still forgets how many members of his caucus come from Fairfield County.

The whole “$2.8 billion in cuts we will never make” charade was greeted with a mix of contempt and outright hostility by the Capitol press corps, who have lost whatever patience they ever had with these amateur-hour theatrics.

Meanwhile, if the DummyDumb Dems think they can pass a tax increase on the “wealthy” and overrride a veto, they better have a lot more riding on that veto than parking places for the likes of McDonald, Duff and Hartley …