Remember, Matt Harvey’s Probably Already Proven He’s Good

I’ve noticed a few people on Twitter urging caution about Matt Harvey, who makes what is likely to be his final start of 2012 tonight. And look, it is justified, for a pair of reasons: we haven’t seen him last a full season in the major leagues yet, and pitchers are at high risk to get hurt.

These seem like the same thing, but they’re not. He could fade, though the fact that he is dominating late in this season suggests stamina isn’t a problem. And naturally, injuries happen for lots of reasons, fatigue merely being one of them.

That said, I’m pretty bullish on Harvey. And I don’t put much stock in the idea that “second time around the league”, he’s likely to have any kind of serious regression in performance.

Let’s take a look at his contemporaries in strikeout rate, and how they debuted.

Harvey is at 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, which for starting pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched in their first years, is sixth since 1901. So, in other words, wow.

Howard Megdal is the Lead Writer for the LoHud Mets Blog and Writer At Large for Capital New York. He covers baseball, basketball, and soccer for these and numerous other publications. His new book, "Wilpon's Folly," is available as an e-book at Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble. Follow the LoHud Mets Blog on Twitter @lohudmets. Follow Howard on Twitter @HowardMegdal.