Monday ratings analysis: ‘Hostages’ struggles, ‘Blacklist’ impresses

Y’all may have noticed that I didn’t do analysis for Sunday’s ratings.

The reasons were two-fold: There’s nothing to say about Sunday Night Football, while football overrun wreaked havoc on both FOX and CBS’ numbers. Then either I didn’t get Final numbers, or I got them too late and I was on to other things. Apologies.

Some VERY quick Sunday hits: “Betrayal” is, predictably, DOA, coming in way below the launch for “Pan Am” and slightly below the launch for “666 Park Avenue.” There were only two premiere week dramas that came in entirely stillborn — “Lucky 7” and “Betrayal” — and both were on ABC and both creative by David Zabel. Ugh.

Actually, nothing else was meaningful. “Revenge” and “Once Upon a Time” were both below last fall, but above last spring. So that’s OK. And “The Good Wife” and “The Mentalist” came in really low among young viewers. REALLY low. “The Mentalist” was almost certainly in its last season anyway. I’m not sure what CBS is supposed to do about “Good Wife.”

But anyway, I’m actually here to give a quick look to the numbers from Monday, September 30, which feature a lot of good news actually. Unless you’re CBS. In that case? Not-so-good news.

Bulletpoints after the break…

*** I’m skeptical at FOX’s ability to stay ahead of CBS overall and perhaps at ABC’s ability to stay tied with CBS in the 18-49 demo, but for today? CBS is last among the Big 4 in viewers and tied for third in the key demo. That’s not good if you’re CBS.

*** The linchpin worry for CBS is “2 Broke Girls.” Yes, it’s usually pretty awful, but it’s been a hit for CBS and not a qualified, lead-in boosted hit. It’s been a genuine, self-starting hit. And suddenly, it’s doing under 7.6 million viewers and a 2.4 in the key demo, which is all fine and dandy if you’re FOX or NBC or ABC, but if you’re CBS, those are Bubble numbers. Coming into this season, CBS must have figured “2 Broke Girls” was a long-term player with three or four more seasons in it. Suddenly? It’s falling off precipitously and the difference in syndication value for a show with five or six seasons is vastly different than for a show with three or four seasons, even if “2 Broke Girls” already has that syndication deal in place with TBS. CBS can’t risk having this property diminished and as long as CBS has a weaksauce 8:30 show, “2 Broke Girls” is going to suffer, because it isn’t self-starting like it used to. And that, in turn, is hurting “Mom,” though for CBS, it’s simultaneously encouraging and discouraging that “Mom” stick really close to its lead-in with 6.9 million viewers and a 2.2 key demo. If you’d told CBS two weeks ago that “Mom” would be within 600,000 viewers and a 0.2 of “2 Broke Girls,” folks would have been PSYCHED.

*** If I were CBS, which I am not, I would give “We Are Men” one more episode and then pull it as fast as possible. Again, “We Are Men” did a bigger audience than any FOX comedy and a bigger 18-49 demo number than any FOX comedy other than “New Girl,” but CBS has different standards. And “We Are Men” is going to fall. Because it’s not good. Losing more than 50 percent of the only good lead-in CBS has is bad business. With “Bad Teacher” and “Mike & Molly” and “That Ensemble Thing With James Van Der Beek,” CBS has reinforcements, but nothing that’s going to be ready soon. The sad reality is that a “Big Bang Theory” repeat would probably draw 7 or 8 million viewers in that time slot and a better demo number than “Men” will do next week.

*** Yup. I’m just going to keep harping on CBS. Sorry. Over the weekend, I wrote really positive stuff about “Hostages.” “A 50 percent Live+3 DVR bump! in the 18-49 demo! A bump up to 10 million viewers! Who says “Hostages” is a dud? With is why we report on Live+3! Blah blah blah.” That was fun, wasn’t it? And now back to bad news. “Hostages” is getting crushed in Live+Same Day ratings by both “Castle” and “The Blacklist.” When you get down to a 1.5 in the key demo for a drama, that’s David Zabel Territory. [Poor David Zabel. I hated “Betrayal.” I didn’t hate “Lucky 7” at all. Bad week for the guy.]

*** On to positives! Yes, I’d guess “Blacklist” is going to slip a tiny bit in Finals from its current 12.1 million and 3.6 in the key demo. “The Voice” ran pretty deep into that 10 p.m. hour. However, that currently stands as only a 5 percent dip in the key demo from its premiere. That’s insane in today’s TV business. It’s much better than “Smash” or even “Revolution” did. And “Blacklist” did robust Live+3 numbers, too. Two weeks is a small sample, but I’d expect a Back-9 pickup in the next couple weeks. NBC’s challenge? How to handle that gap between “Voice” seasons with “Blacklist.” The long hiatus only hurt “Revolution” a little, but it definitely hurt. NBC wants to nurture this one.

*** And FOX is feeling good about “Sleepy Hollow” and who can blame them? I talked about the retention for “Blacklist” being impressive, but “Sleepy Hollow” did a 3.4 in Fast Nationals for its premiere and it’s still at a 3.0 against a full roster of competition. The overall audience has dropped a bit more than that, but FOX probably isn’t worried. And the network now has two weeks of great Live+3 ratings for this one. A Back-9 seems inevitable except for a wee complication: “Sleepy Hollow” is in a time period that has already been promised to “The Following” at midseason. That’s a high class problem and it’s only a problem if “Almost Human” hits. And if “Almost Human” hits, that’s a challenging complication FOX would love to have.

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Is The Following absolutely tied to that time slot? Or could Fox shift it elsewhere on the schedule? If Almost Human works, then you’ve got four shows sharing two slots on the same night while almost every other night has weak spots. That’s just silly.

-Full season for Sleepy Hollow, and it stays put
-Almost Human still goes at Mondays at 8pm
-Bones goes to Fridays. If Almost Human flops, it can shift back to Monday in the spring. Its fans will follow it.
-The Following takes over Thursdays at 9 during Glee’s hiatus
-Rake goes…somewhere else (I haven’t quite figured that part out yet)

This might be even easier to figure out if Fox would cut the sinking X-Factor or Idol performance shows down to an hour like they used to several years ago, but I think they’re sticking their fingers in their ears and chanting, “Lalala, can’t hear you!” on that matter.

By: dan

10.01.2013 @ 7:04 PM

Liz – I think FOX likes “The Following” in the slot that “24” once had an all that. It’s a legacy slot, as it were. I think “The Following” is also 100% tied to the 9 p.m. hour, which makes it harder to move around. Given that “Idol” still skews young and female, I doubt they’d consider “The Following” there and it wouldn’t be a good fit if the Tuesday comedies got trimmed to a single hour (which won’t happen this year).

I think FOX’s options change if “Almost Human” half-succeeds? Maybe then it can get pushed to Fridays at 9 if “Bones” holds up on Fridays at 8? But then what happens to the 9 p.m. comedy block?

Lots and lots of variables. Of course, if “Almost Human” just tanks, “Sleepy Hollow” moves up to 8 p.m. and all’s easy…

-Daniel

By: rugman11

10.01.2013 @ 7:07 PM

If Almost Human hits I wonder if Fox would pull Dads (or whatever comedy is there) and Mindy, move New Girl to 8:00 and then put a drama (or Glee when it returns) at 9:00.

The other possibility, depending on its Fall ratings, would be moving Glee to Fridays with Bones. That would give Fox a spring schedule of:

Rugman11 – I think FOX has too many comedies to give up on both Tuesday hours, unless they’re committed to burning comedies on Friday, which seems strange. They still have “Enlisted,” “Surviving Jack” and “Us & Them” for midseason, as well as the possibility of “Raising Hope.” Then again, those Tuesday comedies are so low it’s hard to know how FOX can afford to do business with them… So… Possible?

-Daniel

By: rugman11

10.01.2013 @ 7:18 PM

Yeah, there are a lot of comedies, but if their dramas are all pulling 2+ 18-49 ratings and the comedies are mired in that 1.5-1.9 range, it’s tough to not see that as valuable real estate.

I don’t know. It’s a question people are paid a lot of money to answer and I’m sure it’s a problem that Fox would love to have.

By: dan

10.01.2013 @ 7:22 PM

Rugman11 – Absolutely. And it’s beyond my pay grade to worry about it as well.

-Daniel

By: RP12

10.01.2013 @ 7:01 PM

Poor Lucky 7 didn’t ANY promotion from ABC, so how were people supposed to know if it was on? Granted, I didn’t watch it, but I caught up online later. But how could they expect people to watch it if they didn’t promote it at all?

By: dan

10.01.2013 @ 7:08 PM

RP12 – It was definitely less promoted, which is the inevitable flaw of airing four new shows on the same night. SOMETHING has to get the short end of the promotional stick and it sure wasn’t gonna be “SHIELD.”

-Daniel

By: Dezbot

10.01.2013 @ 7:03 PM

I much prefer “Sleepy Hollow” to “The Following.” Leave it where it is, Fox! :-)

By: M

10.01.2013 @ 7:05 PM

This week’s Blacklist was only 40 minutes minus commercials. Was the episode edited down because NBC wanted The Voice to run long? Or did The Voice run long because Blacklist came in a little short? If it’s the former it seems ridiculous to try to artificially boost the numbers for Blacklist while simultaneously cutting the episodes down to almost nothing.

By: dan

10.01.2013 @ 7:08 PM

M – I don’t know, but it was definitely short. The episode started running at 10:02 and was done by 10:54 and didn’t seem to have a smaller commercial load. I noticed the strange timing, to be sure.

-Daniel

By: Jonathan

10.02.2013 @ 1:36 AM

I believe it was supposed to have limited commercial interruptions, perhaps they solved that problem by shoving a bunch of them to the end?

By: Caitlin

10.01.2013 @ 8:04 PM

I don’t know if this has been reported as a factor, but Directv here (in the the Midwest) was experiencing a blackout of local channels – CBS, NBC & ABC – on Sunday night from 6pm on. When I called in they said it was a national issue they were experiencing. We missed/didn’t record Good Wife, Mentalist, Once Upon a Time and Revenge because of it. Depending on how that effects the numbers (not sure on % of Directv viewers and location of the outage), but that at least curbed our viewing. And unlike ABC, I have found it impossible to watch anything from
CBS online.

By: DKD

10.01.2013 @ 8:07 PM

I really wish Nielsen would release some new data on C3 ratings for TV critics to chew on.

A high lift from Live + SD to Live + 3 days is indicative of a show whose C3 rating is actually higher than its Live + SD rating. A 50% lift in program rating can equal a 15% higher C3 rating than what the Live + SD is showing you. In the case of Hostages( that can mean the C3 rating was 1.7 rather than 1.5. Still not great, but better than it appears

By: Nick

10.01.2013 @ 9:11 PM

We won’t have C3 ratings on Hostages for another couple of weeks so time will tell once it starts rolling in but the difference isn’t likely to matter in the grand scheme of things because it’s usually minimal (if higher at all). And of course it’s all relative so it would need to see a significantly higher bump than other shows to truly make a dent.

It may only tip the scales if a show is right on or slightly below the level it deems renewable. But, in the case of a Hostages on CBS, it almost definitely won’t matter because that’s already well below acceptable for the network. Barring a miracle, the show is dead. An increase to a 1.7 won’t be enough.

The bottom line is that this push by the networks to stop emphasizing the Live+SD data is mostly ridiculous.

By: Andie

10.01.2013 @ 8:56 PM

God, I hope Almost Human hits. The pilot was amazing. Seems so very Fringe-like, which makes sense because JH Wyman is the creator. I was kind of hoping that Sleepy Hollow and Almost Human would continue to be paired together, especially once John Noble pops up on SH.