In Any US-Syria Conflict, Cyberweapons Could Fly in Both Directions

Clayton, Mark, The Christian Science Monitor

Cyberattacks to neutralize Syrian targets, such as its anti-
aircraft radar systems, are likely be part of any US-led effort to
bomb or assault the Assad regime. Yet Syria and its sympathizers are
equally likely to launch retaliatory cyberstrikes against US
targets, say experts in cyberconflict.

The US has had a cyber bead drawn on Syria for well over a year
now, plenty long enough to infiltrate and compromise key Syrian
military systems, several experts say. But to what degree the US
will use that capability is far from clear, especially since it
might not be needed to accomplish its key goals.

Still, many experts say it is quite likely cyberweapons will be
launched. Some even suggest using them would be a good idea, adding
the US should tell the world what is happening so it can be shown
that such weapons can be used responsibly without killing people.

"There's this mystique about cyberweapons - but nobody's ever
died from a cyberattack," says Jason Healey director of the Cyber
Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council, an international
diplomacy think tank in Washington. "Here the US has the opportunity
not only to show how cyberweapons can be utilized responsibly under
the laws of war ... [but also to] display how such weapons are more
humanitarian than bombs that kill people."

Michael Clarke, director-general of the Royal United Services
Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, says it's
clear any conflict with Syria is going to have a major cyber
component.

"Cyberwarfare would likely play a more prominent role in an
intervention in Syria than in any conflict to date," he wrote in an
analysis last year. "Cyber techniques are anonymous, deniable,
inexpensive, increasingly effective, and comparatively risk-free,
certainly in terms of own casualties. This makes them attractive in
this highly complex, precarious, and fraught situation."

Syria's own offensive cyber capabilities are believed to be quite
limited, including those of the Syrian Electronic Army hacktivist
group it supports. In recent years the SEA has targeted websites of
news media perceived as critical of Syria. Last month the hacktivist
group knocked The New York Times site down for a day.

Knocking down websites is considered more of a nuisance than a
threat to the US or its operations. Yet anti-American hacktivists
worldwide could support Syria and its SEA. Add to that the
possibility that Syria's nation-state allies could join in - with
unpredictable results.

"A cyberattack against the US from Syria is a significant area of
concern that we need to be prepared for," says Frank J. Cilluffo,
director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George
Washington University in Washington, D.C. The US government is
doubtless sending warnings to operators of US critical
infrastructure, such as the power grid, to be on guard for
cyberattacks, he and others say.

Yet if Syria's capabilities alone are modest, some Syrian allies
with much more formidable offensive cyberwar capabilities - such as
Russia and Iran - are far more dangerous cyber foes. Any cyberbattle
that manages to draw in either of those nations could become
suddenly much more dangerous for the US, these experts say.

"The Syrians clearly don't have the capabilities some nations
have," Dr. Cilluffo says. "But what they lack in capability they
make up for in intent. They can rent or buy capability. Obviously
the level of escalation changes if Iran, Hezbollah, or Russia come
into the fray."

Iran and Russia, however, each have strong reasons to avoid
becoming embroiled in any conflict with the US. Iran's new president
is trying anew to start up international talks on its nuclear
program and lift economic sanction. But Iran's cyber militia is
believed to be behind ongoing cyberattacks against US banks.

Since 2010, repeated cyberattacks have targeted the Iranian
nuclear program, with considerable damage. As a result, Iran has
made significant investments in offensive cyber capabilities,
spending more than $1 billion since 2011, according to congressional
testimony in March by Ilan Berman, vice president of the American
Foreign Policy Council. …

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