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Agree to Disagree But I’m No Billionaire

There’s no doubting George Soros is a genius – especially a when it comes to currency speculation/selling short the pound on Black Wednesday. But, as I’ve mentioned in previous “Bcc: List” emails, I disagree with the general assessment that the gross increase in price of oil is more based on speculation (definitely an issue worth noting) than the value of the dollar and/or inflation. Why are so many people like investors (outside of Trump), politicians (outside of crazy Ron Paul), etc. scared to use the “i” word?

Furthermore, supply vs. demand “shortfalls” and/or China hoarding oil for the Olympics is a “cover” for the fact we keep dumping money into Iraq that we don’t have while cutting interest rates resulting in the value of the dollar tanking and oil prices subsequently skyrocketing.

It’s worth noting, the interest rate cuts appear to be over and the aforementioned recession requires two back to back quarters with declining GDP growth. While there was growth in Q1 – this could be eventually adjusted to negative growth – Q2 will be stronger than anticipated with positive growth since hopefully the bank write downs (note: link from 2007) have already taken enough of their toll. So, Soros’ mentioned US recession would have to be Q3 and Q4. Nostradamus, anyone? Naw. Stick with just being a Billionaire.

P.S. I’m normally not all that “bitter” towards billionaire investors – reference Icahn post – because they’re unbelievable talents and are where they are because of such ability to scout out risk vs. reward. But, everyone makes misjudgments like Warren Buffett insisting there’s money in newsprint (Berkshire Hathaway owns the Washington Post and Buffalo News) while finally undermining newsprint because newspapers don’t know how to make money anymore – cough, cough…it’s not through ineffective website advertising or an overpaid sales team of 45-60 year olds blaming a recession or insisting newsprint advertising just needs to be “tweaked.”