Bonnie barely alive

Tropical Depression Bonnie is barely clinging to life. Wind shear of 25 knots and dry air from an upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico are taking their toll on Bonnie, which is now just a swirl of low clouds accompanied by a small clump of heavy thunderstorms on the north side of the center of circulation. These thunderstorms are now visible on New Orleans long range radar, and will arrive in coastal Louisiana early this afternoon, well ahead of the center. The Hurricane Hunters are in Bonnie, and have found a much weaker storm with top winds of just 30 mph.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Bonnie. At the time, Bonnie had sustained winds of 30 mph.

Forecast for BonnieThe current NHC forecast for Bonnie looks good, with the storm making landfall in Louisiana near 9pm CDT Saturday night. According to the latest tide information, this will be near the time of low tide. This will result in much less oil entering the Louisiana marshlands than occurred during Hurricane Alex in June. That storm brought a storm surge of 2 - 4 feet and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph that lasted for several days, including several high tide cycles. Bonnie will be lucky to be a tropical depression at landfall, and should only create a storm surge of 1 - 2 feet that will come at low tide. This will result in a storm tide level that will inundate land to at most one foot above ground level.

Elsewhere in the tropicsThere are no other threat areas of concern today. The only model calling for possible tropical development in the next week is the NOGAPS model, which predicts a strong tropical disturbance could form off the coast of Nicaragua in the Southwest Caribbean about a week from now.

Next updateThe next updates will be by wunderground meteorologists Rob Carver and Shaun Tanner. I'm taking advantage of a break in the tropical action to take a few days away. I'll be back blogging on Friday, at the latest.

lol do I get a cookie? ;D FWIW, I think all the Palin jokes are funny too ... it's not that Obama jokes are hard to come by, just that when you have characters like Palin around, who really needs to put in the effort to crack one on a black guy and risk getting declared racist =P

Quoting Floodman:You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**

Flood, sadly I wore out my soapbox on this subject last year. I feel the same as you on the subject but as soon as one poster figures it out by experience another one always replaces them in the posting ranks of wanting a storm to hit. Sadly they do not understand the emotional, physical, and financial effects a storm can inflict on an individual, much less entire communities. I just internalize the emotions nowadays, as yelling at them will just result in being put in time out.

I worked the relief effort from an AFB close to San Ann for Hurrican Ivan back in 08. Once you have seen the eyes of those who have lost everything then your persepctive on storms change.

I hear ya bro.

I sat under Jeanne in 2004 because I really didn;t have a chouice; I didn't want to get caught out on I95 in a traffic jam...I was about 4 miles from where the "Official landfall" took place...she was a medium CAT3 and yes, it was pretty damned cool; I'm a midwesterner and I've been through a number of tornadoes but nothing like dealing with the eye of a CAT3...

My rules for hurricanes: if I must, I will stick around for a CAT1 or even a 2 but if I can run, I will. I require a minimum of two counties between me and the landfall of a CAT3; I require 300-400 miles for a CAT4 and I need at least two STATES between me and the landfall of a CAT5...I'm no coward, but I'm no fool either

Quoting Floodman:You know, I really hope that those of you wishing for a strong storm get what you're hoping for...the only unfortunate thing is that a storm can't be localized to affect only one house...

A CAT3 will produice winds that you cannot stnd up in...120mph winds will drive a 2x4 through a standard construction wood framed structure; if you happen to be in the way, it will pass through you. Flying construction debris is deadly. For those of you that feel you must stay to prove your bravery, or your invincibility, or for that matter to make sure no one robs your home: I hope you have the sense to evacuate anyone that you might care about; just because your hubris forces you to stay behnd is no reason to put your loved ones in danger...

**steps off his soapbox**

LOL--I have to agree with that Flood. I have never enjoyed the suffering and destruction these storms bring. The irony is that it is the very thing that drew me to this field many moons ago.