Legion of young voters force to be unsure of

E.A. Torriero and Sarah FrankTribune staff reporters

Nothing so far seems to have persuaded Jordan Reilly to vote on Election Day.

Not the MTV spots or the Rock the Vote concerts or Comedy Central. Not the daily voter registration drives outside the University of Wisconsin library. Not the pressure from his peers. Not the hip-hop artists who have visited. Not the issues of war, a military draft and the economy. And certainly not President Bush or Sen. John Kerry.

As thousands of students on one of the most politically active campuses in the country gathered in clusters one night recently to watch a presidential debate, Reilly didn't bother. He pulled his clothes from a dryer at a downtown laundromat and walked out the front door past a throng of University of Wisconsin students whose eyes were glued to a bank of televisions.

"I've got stuff to do," said the 21-year-old senior majoring in history. "Your ability to influence the [election] outcome is insignificant. Who knows? Maybe I'll change my mind on Election Day."

Reilly represents one of this campaign year's conundrums: Will young people, who have shunned elections in increasing numbers since 1972, vote en masse this November? And if so, will first-time "Virgin Voters"--as the non-partisan New Voters Project calls them--change the tide of the election?

"They are the powerful great unknown," said Zach Brandon, a Madison alderman who for years has followed youth voting trends in this liberal university town. "They could either be a gigantic influence or a big flop."

In the campaign's final weeks, political prognosticators have been sizing up the youth vote like oddsmakers on a college football game day. If unprecedented voter registrations are any indication, 2004 could be the year of a promise fulfilled.

Using advertising lures such as sex and rock 'n' roll, a huge grass-roots push has registered voters younger than 30 in record numbers.

Efforts to get out the young vote have sometimes encompassed the the bizarre.

Unusual tactics

One Web site urges young people to trade sex for votes. In a novel attempt at peer coercion, it is asking potential voters to sign a pledge to withhold sex from non-voters for up to four years.

Another site encourages "sexy liberals" to offer sex for votes against Bush. Combined with rock concerts and entertainment acts, the young voter movements resemble happenings that make politics seem like sports.

While the sex-for-vote crowd may generate more talk than votes, substantive and widespread youth registration efforts have generated far more than mere publicity.

Dozens of organizations have spent at least $40 million to sign up voters from a pool of 40 million to 50 million young people.

If half of them vote--about 20 million--it would represent a 2 million increase from the 2000 election. Some recent polls indicate that as many of 85 percent of the registered under 30 voters will turn out Nov. 2.

Their votes could be crucial in battleground states such as Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. And they have a winning track record: Young voters have sided with the popular-vote winner in presidential elections every year since 1984, including Al Gore in 2000.

A Newsweek.com/GENEXT poll released Monday showed Bush and Kerry in a virtual tie among young voters, with Kerry at 47 percent and Bush at 45 percent of the 1,272 voters surveyed. Among the 944 young likely voters polled, Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Fickle voters

Political researchers say there has not been such a buzz about a presidential election among young people since 1972, when the voting age dropped from 21 to 18, after ratification of the 26th Amendment.

"The idea of voting is kind of embedding itself throughout the culture," said Ivan Frishberg, spokesman for the New Voters Project, one of the larger get-out-the-vote efforts.

But historically young people have been fickle. And therein lies the wild card--inclement weather, long lines at polling places, complacency or competing interests could keep young voters away, political trend watchers say.

"It's one thing to sign young people up, it's another to get them to the polls," said Brandon, who operates Laundry 101, an Internet cafe and laundry in Madison.

Traditionally, American culture has portrayed voting as an activity for the older and wiser, experts said.

Some state and local regulations obstruct young people from voting. Some states require first-time voters to cast ballots in person, a significant barrier for out-of-state college freshmen. And, most states--unlike Wisconsin--don't allow registration on Election Day.

"These things sound small, but this adds up," said Jane Eisner, a columnist for the Philadelphia Inquirer, who wrote the book "Taking Back the Vote: Getting American Youth Involved in Our Democracy."

"The cumulative message of all these little things says, `We don't care if you do this or not,'" Eisner said.

Recognizing that registering people is just the first step, the groups that mounted registration drives are turning their attention to wooing young people to the polls.

Republicans, Democrats and non-partisan groups will monitor polling places nationwide on Election Day for stragglers.

"We will do anything to combat apathy," said Ariane Strombom, a student coordinator in Madison with a coalition of campus voting groups. "We will find people who by a certain time did not vote on Election Day. We will call them and then go and take them to the polls. We will try to leave no one behind."

Staying on message

In closely contested states, partisan groups plan to send young people to large universities to help get out the vote. Studies have shown that telephone calls and face-to-face contact increase voter turnout among the young by 10 percentage points.

Young voters have been inundated with one recurring message this year: every vote does indeed count.

"When you think about Florida, how in 2000 the election came down to 537 votes--that's a dorm right there," said Alison Aikele, spokeswoman for the College Republican National Committee. "Young people are starting to realize the importance of their vote."

Polls and other surveys show young people are worried about terrorism, the economy and the war in Iraq. They are concerned about finding jobs, the rising cost of higher education and paying off their debt.

"People are talking about the issues because they can relate to them," said Jennifer Knox, a student leading voting efforts at the University of Wisconsin.

Having soldiers their age fighting and dying in Iraq and Afghanistan has made the war a reality to college students. So too has the notion of a military draft, no matter how hard the candidates or Congress have worked to dispel rumors that it could be brought back.

MTV this year is jumping on the issues bandwagon, replacing its more lyrical approach from previous elections with a "Vote or Lose 2004" campaign. MTV teams are holding rallies while focusing some television shows on key issues.

The idea that young voters are apathetic and uninformed won't hold up in November, said Gideon Yago, an MTV correspondent.

"Young voters are so savvy to media tricks," he said. "They are so used to consuming such large volumes of information that they can weed through the chaff, I think, a lot better than their parents."

Parties push youth vote

And neither party is taking anything for granted.

The Republican National Committee has been tapping into pop culture to attract students. Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie appeared on MTV's music video show "Total Request Live." An RNC 18-wheel truck nicknamed Reggie has shuttled around the nation's campuses enticing young people to register to vote and offering free video games to boot.

"We believe young voters are more optimistic than the population as a whole," said committee spokeswoman Christine Iverson.

The Kerry campaign has been using online message boards to get young people to chat and set up house parties where they can be registered to vote.

"It's a way for them to have unfiltered discussions about the candidates and the issues important to them," said Kerry campaign spokesman Luis Vizcaino.

On the Madison campus, election talk seems to overwhelm chatter about the fortunes of this year's undefeated University of Wisconsin football team.

On downtown State Street, vendors hawk campaign buttons. Campaign signs dot dorm windows. "Chalking," as students term the practice of scribbling political slogans on the sidewalks, is rampant.

Political tradition

Ask students if they will vote and their answer is a quick "yes." Long a hotbed of activism, Madison had one of the highest campus voter turnouts in the 2000 presidential election. Gore defeated Bush in Wisconsin by a mere 5,078 votes.

"That's a little more than one vote per precinct," said Emily Anderson, 20, a Madison native who has taken time off from college in Boston to coordinate the youth campaign for Kerry in Wisconsin.

So many voters in 2000 registered at polling places that the polls closed hours late. This year more than 8,000 students already have registered, campus groups report. Across Wisconsin campuses, more than 70,000 students have registered.

Democrats are blanketing Wisconsin campuses knowing that signing up more voters probably will translate into more Kerry voters on Election Day. Young Republicans, a distinct minority in Madison with just 1,000 active members in a political club, are being more selective.

"We know the vote is again close in Wisconsin," said Nicole Marklein, a student who leads young Republican efforts in Madison. "But we don't want to just focus on getting voters out. We want to get voters out who side with us on the issues. And that's who we are targeting."

Still, on Oct. 8 as young Republicans and Democrats gathered to watch the second presidential debate, there were many students paying no attention--it was Friday night in a college town.

"I have no connection with this election," student Reilly said as he brushed past televisions showing the debate. "These guys [Kerry and Bush] don't share my views."