Gold has now fallen to the 50% fib level at approximately $900, low for today so far is $905. Now the Goldbugs need to rally the forces to hold this level because much below here and the Goldbears will take control. Link

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Volkswagen of America, a subsidiary of Germany's Volkswagen Ag, on Tuesday reported its February U.S. sales fell 17.5% to 13,660 vehicles. The decline was led by an 81% drop in sales of the R32 model and a 73% slide in sales of Passat sedans.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 1:07:36 PM

Notice the bullish TRIN on the chart in my previous post. You need to understand when to ignore this internal and today is one of those days. The AD line and volume are telling you the TRIN is not telling you a true story today.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 1:02:43 PM

The internals are telling you this is not a time for momentum trades nor is it the time for fades. It is not a time to sell the rallies or buy the dips. This is a time to go for lunch, breakfast, run, walk anything but trading. Link

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 12:45:18 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The outlook for the personal-computer market is expected to get so weak this year that technology research firm Gartner Inc. on Monday said PC shipments are likely to post their worst decline since 2001.

Gartner forecasts worldwide PC sales will fall almost 12% this year, to 257 million units, from 2008's levels, as the industry goes through "unprecedented market slowdowns" that are hampering sales in both mature and emerging markets. Gartner said the previous worst decline in PC shipments came in 2001, when unit shipments fell 3.2%.

"The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC buyers grow increasingly cautious," said Gartner research director George Shiffler

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 12:44:04 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The United States faces daunting economic challenges, but the American people will overcome adversity as they always have, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Tuesday. Testifying on Capitol Hill, Geithner said the fiscal stimulus approved last month and the other measures taken by the administration and the Federal Reserve will get American back to work. Once recovery is under way, he said, the government must get on the path toward a sustainable budget. While the budget plan submitted last week cuts taxes on 95% of Americans, tax hikes on the rich will be needed to "restore fiscal responsibility," he said. Geithner said the tax code will be made fairer.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 12:43:43 PM

Daimler February U.S. sales fall 20.6% to 15,614 vehicles

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 12:41:36 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Ford Motor Co. on Tuesday reported a 48.2% drop in February U.S. vehicle sales and pared production plans as the automaker girds for a year in which hopes for a broader industry turnaround are diminishing.

The Dearborn, Mich.-based company (F) said it sold a total of 96,044 cars and trucks last month, down from 185,294 vehicles a year earlier.

The truck side, which includes the top-selling F-Series pickup, plunged 51.6% to 61,366 units while car sales fell 40.8% to 34,678.

I'm just dropping in to say that since about noon last Thursday, the 30-minute 9-ema has been resistance on 30-minute closes (with one minor exception on a single 30-minute candle) for both the SPX and OEX. So, not until these indices make consistent closes above that moving average, now at about 701.69 for the SPX and 334.27 for the OEX, will the trend even have begun to have changed. Since late yesterday afternoon, the potential for a bounce has increased (without a bounce appearing, obviously), but you can use this as a beginning gauge at least if one does appear.

Oh, and I'd want to see the NYSE A/D line maintaining 15-minute closes above about -950, too, before I believed in any kind of bounce. That might be a strong resistance level.

Keene Little : 3/3/2009 12:06:13 PM

The pullback pattern from this morning's high is now approaching the point where it could finish at any time. SPX has not made it down to the lower target I showed earlier (687 is actually the Fib target, not 686 that I gave) but the form of the decline is nearing completion. Be careful if short and start watching for a buying opportunity. A short-covering rally is right around the corner. A move back above SPX 705 would indicate a bottom is in.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 12:01:32 PM

As of today the median home price is 2.9 median household incomes, exactly what it was in the '80's. Three years ago the ratio was 4.5.

General Motors Corp. will announce as early as Tuesday that it will buy Delphi Corp.'s global steering business as a critical move in the continuing restructuring of both troubled companies, according to people familiar with the plan.

GM has been in talks with Delphi for several weeks in hopes of buying some of the auto-parts maker's plants that are central to GM's vehicle manufacturing. Delphi, stuck in bankruptcy protection since October 2005, is GM's largest supplier and its former subsidiary.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 10:53:53 AM

VIX is hovering at daily lows so this should mean the bulls are ready make a move but the AD Line has fallen from over +1000 to below 0 tempering any bullishness I may be feeling.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The enormous fiscal budget deficit is unavoidable to help the economy recover, Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. "We are better off moving aggressively today to solve our economic problems; the alternative could be a prolonged episode of economic stagnation that would only contribute to further deterioration in the fiscal situation," Bernanke told the Senate Budget Committee. Congress is holding several hearings Tuesday on Presidenit Obama's $3.6 trillion budget blueprint for fiscal year 2010Bernanke said recent economic indicators indicate "little sign of improvement" in the economy. The rising number of workers filing for state unemployment have moved higher "suggesting that labor market conditions may have worsened further in recent weeks," he said.

Keene Little : 3/3/2009 10:22:59 AM

Good morning. Anyone see any bulls lately? The bottom of the parallel down-channel from February 9th will be near 686 by noon today and that's also the first Fib projection for a small 5th wave in the move down from February 26th (62% of the 1st wave). If we get that kind of decline this morning it should be a good setup for the bounce that I've been expecting but so far has been AWOL. SPX 60-min chart: Link

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 10:15:21 AM

This is just going to be another day when the bulls are not able to overtake the bears. Link

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 10:09:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of new sales contracts on existing homes fell a seasonally adjusted 7.7% in January amid job losses and weak consumer confidence, a real estate trade group said Tuesday. The index is now down 6.4% from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors said. "We expect similarly soft home sales in the near term, but buyers are expected to respond to much improved affordability conditions and from the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit" in the stimulus package, said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. January's pending sales rose in the West, and fell in the Northeast, South and Midwest. In December, the pending home sales index rose 4.8%, compared with a prior estimate of a 6.3% gain. The index is based on signed sales contracts, which usually occur a month or two before the sale is closed, when sales are reported in the NAR's existing-home sales report.

Gold hit a major resistance at $1000 and retraced 38.20% back to approximately 925, which just happens to be a swing high from January 30th. Since $1000 was a pretty big resistance I wouldn?t be surprised to see a retracement all the way back to 50%, approximately $900 before the Goldbugs need to make a stand. Link

Referring back to the Crude chart. I really like the way the MACD is acting but I have to temper that enthusiasm with the fact that the MACD has being giving me bullish signs since back in December. I think once the MACD gets above 0 I will feel more comfortable using it again to decipher what the heck Crude is up to.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:50:23 AM

Crude showed us where the sellers overtook the buyers (resistance) and is now making a possible higher low. We will know for sure if this is a higher low or not if the swing high from February 26th breaks. If that resistance does not break before Crude makes a new yearly low then we will need to start all over again looking for signs the bulls have being resurrected from the dead. Link

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:45:55 AM

Internals are looking kinda bullish but not overly so however, that is OK I will take kinda over not at all.

In addition to the speakers whom Jane has already mentioned, I wanted to note that ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet is speaking today at 12:30 ET at the House of Finance in Frankfurt. This weekend, Eastern European countries entreated Germany and others to take steps to help stem their problems, and increasing numbers of financial writers speculate that Europe's problems could cause further global upheaval. The ECB president's speech could contribute to volatility today, too.

As I type, the delayed Bloomberg quote for the TED spread is down to 99.93, a relief after yesterday's +105 high.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:24:19 AM

The total auto industry decline, according to Edmunds.com, is expected to reach 41.4%. Most forecasts on Wall Street call for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in the low 9-million range, down from 9.6 million last month, which marked a 26-year low.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:23:02 AM

Looks like Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is on tap today as well.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:23:11 AM

WE will be getting Total Vehicle Sales figures out all day.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:20:12 AM

Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 10:00ET

We also have the pending home sales figures out at 10:00ET today.

Jane Fox : 3/3/2009 9:19:11 AM

The overnight session was mostly a sideways consolidation from the levels the markets closed shop at. I see nothing that would tell me the bulls nor the bears are have control. Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/2/2009 9:59:59 PM

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