Missiles bolstered opposite Taiwan

China delivered a new shipment of missiles to bases near Taiwan last
week as part of a mounting buildup under way since the beginning of
the year, U.S. intelligence officials said.

"It is a concern," said one official familiar with
intelligence reports of the missile deployments. The official said the
stepped-up deployments are "not surprising" to U.S.
intelligence agencies, which have been monitoring the increases for
the past several years.

Disclosure of the latest missile shipment comes as China's Vice
President Hu Jintao began his first visit to the United States on
Saturday in Hawaii. Mr. Hu, considered the Communist Party choice to
succeed President Jiang Zemin, will meet President Bush and Vice
President Richard B. Cheney this week.

It could not be learned whether U.S. officials will discuss the
missile buildup opposite Taiwan during Mr. Hu's visit. The Chinese
vice president, however, is expected to repeat China's opposition to
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a senior U.S. official said.

According to intelligence officials, the latest shipment was
identified at a Chinese railway station near Lianxiwang, where a major
nuclear missile base is located.

The shipment included eight rail cars bearing missile canisters. The
missiles are believed to be CSS-6 Mod 2 missiles that are headed for
short-range missile bases at Leping and Fuzhou.

The new missiles are expected to replace or augment older CSS-6s
currently deployed there, the officials said.

The new missiles are the fifth or sixth delivery since the beginning
of the year and follow increased Chinese government anger at the Bush
administration for increasing political and military support to
Taiwan.

"China is continuing to deploy  and in fact has
accelerated recently  its deployment of missiles which range
Taiwan," Adm. Dennis Blair, commander of U.S. forces in the
Pacific, told reporters in Hong Kong April 18.

An intelligence official said the missile shipments to areas within
range of Taiwan have increased the danger to the island, which Beijing
views as a breakaway province. "These missiles are 7½
minutes flight-time from Taiwan," said a second intelligence
official. The short flight time is what worries U.S. defense and
intelligence officials, the source said, adding that the missiles are
destabilizing the region and pose a threat to Taiwan.

China in 1996 had fewer than 50 short-range missiles within striking
distance of Taiwan. Today, U.S. intelligence estimates that China's
military forces have more than 350 missiles in the region.

Adm. Blair said the missile buildup is worrying and could lead to
the future sale of missile defenses to Taiwan. "The missile
balance across the Taiwan Strait is also of concern," Adm. Blair
said. The four-star admiral, who will be leaving the post next month,
said the missiles "can cause a great deal of destruction to
Taiwan."

However, the missile forces alone "cannot make a decisive
military difference yet. But if they continue to increase in number
and accuracy, there will come a time when they threaten the sufficient
defense of Taiwan," Adm. Blair said.

The United States is committed to maintaining a stable military
balance through providing arms to Taiwan, and when the military
balance shifts in favor of China, "I'm sure there will be
consideration of missile defenses for Taiwan," Adm. Blair said.

The United States has developed an advanced Patriot PAC-3 missile
defense and is working on a sea-based regional missile defense based
on U.S. warships.

Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian said in an interview with The
Washington Times in July 2001 that Taiwan, the United States and Japan
should join forces to develop regional defenses against the growing
Chinese missile threat.

In earlier remarks to reporters in Hong Kong, Adm. Blair said a
conflict between China and Taiwan would be a "lose-lose-lose"
situation. "It would be a loss for Taiwan, it would be a loss for
China, it would certainly be a loss for the region as a whole,"
he said. "It would interfere with the economic development of
this part of the world, there would be a great deal of destruction and
there would be no solution from anybody's point of view."

China's missile buildup has been a worry of the Bush administration.
Last year the administration sharply increased arms sales to Taiwan,
including offers of four Kidd-class guided missile destroyers and up
to eight diesel electric submarines. Sales of advanced Arleigh
Burke-class missile ships, which carry Aegis battle management
systems, have been deferred with the idea of negotiating with China
for a reduction of the short-range missiles near Taiwan.

The Pentagon recently updated its war planning should U.S. forces be
called upon to defend Taiwan from an attack by the mainland. The
upgrade followed statements by Mr. Bush last year that the United
States would do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan.

China's government in March barred a U.S. warship from visiting Hong
Kong following the visit to the United States by Taiwan's defense
minister. A Chinese government spokesman said at the time that the
United States "has done a series of things that interfere with
China's internal affairs and undermine China-U.S. relations."

Pentagon spokesman Lt. Cmdr. Jeff Davis said two weeks ago in
response to reports of the missile buildup that "these missiles
are clearly designed to project a threatening posture and to try and
intimidate the people and the democratically elected government of
Taiwan." Chinese naval deployments also pose a threat to sea
lanes near Taiwan and access to Taiwanese ports, Cmdr. Davis said.