Fund Flows

The new normal sure is strange: with the S&P flirting with all time highs, not to mention staging another dramatic V-shaped comeback from the post-Brexit crash which saw S&P futures trade limit down a week ago, investors keep on selling. According to Lipper data, U.S.-based stock mutual funds, which are held by retail mom-and-pop investors, posted cash withdrawals of $2.8 billion over the weekly period ended Wednesday; this was the 16th consecutive week of outflows.

"As gamma exposure turned significantly short on Monday 6/27, it also contributed to a larger squeeze up on Tuesday and Wednesday (please note, these were even more prominent on 8/26 and 8/27 than this week)... We maintain the view that we have not yet seen the highs of VIX due to Brexit and related risks. The points discussed above suggest equity markets face elevated risk in the days and weeks ahead."

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

"Longer term the implications for markets could be more serious. Investor positioning during the euro debt crisis can be thought of as the worst case for markets in the current conjuncture. It would require another 10% decline in global equity indices from here, for the equity weighting of non-bank investors in the world to return to euro debt crisis levels in a worst case scenario. Such a decline would also push the current bond allocation of 22% to above the 23% peak seen during the euro debt crisis."

"About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well." - Marko Kolanovic

A relentless stream of selling by Bank of America's "smart money" clients stretching for over 4 straight months, or 18 consecutive weeks, is finally over. As BofA's Jill Carey Hall reports, last week, during which the S&P 500 was flat from the prior week, BofAML clients were net buyers of US stocks for the first time in 19 weeks, breaking a record-long selling streak that began in mid-January.

It is a misnomer to think of the rate hike in terms of only being 25 basis points; on a percentage basis of the current effective Fed Funds Rate is what matters, and why this rate hike will have a meaningful impact on cross asset fund flows.

Over one year after the collapse of 1MDB, aided and abetted by none other than Goldman Sachs, officials have finally started to piece together the fund flows, and BSI was the first casualty: "BSI Bank is the worst case of control lapses and gross misconduct that we have seen in the Singapore financial sector," Ravi Menon, managing director of MAS, said in the statement. “It is a stark reminder to all financial institutions to take their anti-money laundering responsibilities seriously."

With high-yield bond funds suffering the largest redemptions in their history, this week saw gold fund flows soar to their highest in 2016 as buyers took advantage of the lower prices following the same path as George Soros, Stan Druckenmiller, Jana Partners, and Canada's financial giant CI Financial.

As we reported earlier today, following the surprising "resignation" of the company's CEO and Chairman, Renaud Laplanche as a result of an "internal board review of sales of $22 million in near-prime loans to a single investor", which resulted in the stock losing a quarter of its market cap in minutes, subsequent revelations have seen the spotlight shining brightly on none other than former Morgan Stanley CEO and current Lending Club board member, John Mack, who according to Bloomberg invested in the same venture that led to the termination resignation of the CEO.