Alex’s Oscar Predictions

Fair warning: I have not seen all of the Best Picture nominees this year. With that being said, I feel like I have seen enough (and certainly read enough) to have an informed opinion. The Best Picture nominees I have not seen are: “Phantom Thread” and “Call Me By Your Name.” So, here, in all of its snarkiness, are my Oscar should wins and will wins.

Best Picture:

Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: The Shape of Water

The story and characters of Three Billboards were something new and refreshing. I appreciated the fact that it was a story of a woman being able to express her anger on screen. As much as I don’t want to address the criticisms others have had about the race relations depicted in this film, it is necessary. The film is a realistic depiction of rural Missouri, unfortunately. This was not a redemption story. It is a story of raw emotion, anger, and a lack of self-control. I could literally go on about this film for days, but I will spare all of you of that.

With that being said, I can honestly say I don’t get the hype around “The Shape of Water.” I did not enjoy the characters or the story. The script was not great compared to the other nominees. The one thing this film had going for it was the set design. It was beautiful to look at if you can get past all of the fish sex and Michael Shannon’s crappy dialogue.

Let me say, I enjoyed all of the performances in this category. As least the ones I have seen up until this point. With that being said, Gary Oldman’s performance for sure stands out from the rest. It was a real performance that was just enough over the top for it to be brilliant. I think the script he had to work with also helped a lot.

As much as it kills me to root against our lady queen Meryl, I must. Frances McDormand’s performance stands out against every other nominee in this category. Her performance was real and raw. It was evident that this was a project she believed in and dedicated herself to mentally, physically, and emotionally.

Actor in a Supporting Role:

Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Sam Rockwell
Will Win: Sam Rockwell

As much as I like the sound of “Academy Award winner Woody Harrelson,” Sam Rockwell definitely had the better performance in Three Billboards. His character was a terrible human being, but he pulled it off perfectly. I spent most of the time watching this movie wanting to punch him in the face, but usually that’s a sign of a good film character.

Let me begin by saying that I love both of these women so much I can’t even put it into words. Unfortunately, Allison Janney’s character in “I,Tonya” is a stereotypical overprotective sports parent who comes across (and is) the villain of the story. Laurie Metcalf’s character in Lady Bird definitely experiences more growth. I think Janney will definitely win this category based on the results of the rest of the awards season. I also don’t think it hurts that Janney works more consistently in film than Metcalf.

Full disclosure: I have not seen any of these nominees. However, the fact that “The Boss Baby” is an Academy Award nominee infuriates me. I think “Coco” will very easily win this category based on what I know of the story and characters and all of the predictions I have read up until this point.

If anyone other than Mark Bridges wins for the film “Phantom Thread,” there will be a riot in the Aebly/Blake household. I have not seen “Phantom Thread,” but from the trailer alone you can see the beauty and mastery in the dresses for this film. I swear to God, if The Shape of Water wins for that stupid fish man outfit, I will set a couch on fire.

“Dunkirk” is the most beautifully shot movie that I have ever experienced. For anyone else to win this category is a travesty. With that being said, based on predictions and previous awards given this season, del Toro is clearly going to win. Hopefully, Christopher Nolan’s 2016 Leo moment is coming.

Documentary (Feature):

Nominees:
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Will win: Faces Places

I haven’t seen any of these nominees yet. Hopefully by Oscar night I will have seen at least a couple. Right now, “Faces Places” is clearly in the lead. However, I would love for “Icarus” or “Last Men in Aleppo” to win just for the political implications alone.

“Dunkirk” was a beautifully edited film. If there was a category I wanted to see an upset in, it would be this one. “Baby Driver” was such a cool film to experience between the music and the way that it was cut. With that being said, Dunkirk still deserves the win here.

The transformation that Gary Oldman goes through to become Winston Churchill is unreal. He is almost unrecognizable in the beginning. It goes beyond the “fat suit.” The facial prosthetics used in this film are amazing.

Should Win: Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Will Win: The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat

“The Shape of Water” score left a lot to be desired for me. Hans Zimmer’s work in “Dunkirk” is unmatched. The score made you feel more than the actual story. The ticking clock in the background with the score made the viewer feel the anxiety and fear that those men on the beach must have. “The Shape of Water” score did not manage to make the viewer feel any sort of emotion.

Music (Original Song):

Nominees:
Mighty River, Mudbound
Mystery of Love, Call Me By Your Name
Remember Me, Coco
Stand Up For Something, Marshall
This is Me, The Greatest Showman

Will Win: Remember Me

I have only heard two of these songs and both are great. But, “Remember Me” is leading the race right now. Plus, let’s be real, it’s a super catchy song.

Production Design:

Nominees:
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Should Win: The Shape of Water
Will Win: The Shape of Water

This is the one Oscar that “The Shape of Water” deserves to win. They turned what could have been a super boring, cold set into something unique and visually stunning.

I have only seen the trailer for this short film. I have never felt so much as a result of a one minute video. Given the current political climate and recent events, I think this short film is an easy win for the category.

Sound Editing/Sound Mixing:

Nominees:
Baby Driver
Blad Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

I am going to be bold and split these two categories. My hope is that by making this prediction it actually happens. The use of sound in both “Dunkirk” and “Baby Driver” were phenomenal. “Dunkirk” was a more traditional use of sound in film, but it was very well done. “Baby Driver” was such a unique use of sound that I think it deserves some recognition. The way that music was used was like no other viewing experience I have ever had.

Visual Effects:

Nominees:
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War For the Planet of the Apes

Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes

The only films I have seen in this category are “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2”
and “The Last Jedi,” and let’s be real, neither deserve to win this category. The consensus is that “War For the Planet of the Apes will” win and I have no reason to doubt that at this point.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Will Win: Call Me By Your Name

I have only seen two of these films. But, from what I have read about this category, “Call Me By Your Name” was adapted from a really crappy book. The fact that it was adapted from bad source material into a wonderfully written film says a lot about James Ivory.

Writing (Original Screenplay):

Nominees:
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Should Win: Get Out
Will Win: Get Out

This is such a tough category. All of these films were so wonderfully written (except The Shape of Water). I would love for “The Big Sick” to become an Oscar winner. But, I am realistic enough to know that that won’t happen. “Get Out” is a worthy winner of this category. It is witty and suspenseful. And while a screenplay is about the words that are written on a page, there were even more powerful moments of silence in “Get Out” that made this film so great.