"The rally in the S&P since March has been one of the faster ever, rising 50% in five months, and rapidly carrying the S&P to the lower end of our general target zone of 1000-1100.

"At the same time, optimism has finally reached 'Primary degree' levels. The daily sentiment index recently reported 88% bulls among S&P traders, a reading equal to that on October 9, 2007, the top day of the 'Cycle B wave' when the Dow made its all-time closing high of 14,164. Higher readings are possible, but we are no longer compelled to wait.

"In falling from 14,198 to 6470, the Primary wave covered a large amount of territory: 7728 points. The Fibonacci 3/8 retracement level is 9368, while a 5/8 retracement would carry to 11,300.

"The Dow has essentially achieved the first of these retracements levels. Indeed, at this point, the Dow has also achieved a Fibonacci 3/8 retracement, creating a Fibonacci 50% gain in a Fibonacci 5 months. It would be a nice place for the rally to stop.

"Given that stocks remain in the largest-degree bear market in nearly 300 years, it is not a good idea to bet inordinately on the upside. We should not ask more of the 'stock market gods' than they have already granted us.

"The prudent thing to do is return to a bearish stance now that prices have reached the first Fibonacci retracement level. Investors should continue to keep the bulk of their wealth in case and the safest possible cash equivalents, in the safest institutions.

"If you actively invest in the stock market with money you can afford to lose, it's time to return to the short side. It may be early in terms of both time and price, but that's the cost of insuring that don't miss profiting in the next wave down."