If $4.26 for a gallon of gas seems painful, relax. The price at the pump in California is ever so slowly falling after four weeks of constant increases -- and could drop as much as 40 to 50 cents by July 4.

"They just started to ease. The worst may be behind us," said Patrick DeHaan, petroleum analyst for GasBuddy.com. "The next week is crucial. Let's see what happens if oil is lower."

The price of oil fell below $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time in three weeks, as the price of gas reached a state average of $4.261, down ever so slightly from $4.263 the day before.

It's not much, but it is a signal of more to come, and at a surprising time. Normally gas prices peak in the middle of May each year and start their downward trend in the middle of September.

This year, DeHaan says prices on the West Coast could fall to as low as $3.80 a gallon by July. Other analysts agree prices are heading down.

"Barring a disruption of supply or a major ratcheting up of tension in Ukraine, we could see a dramatic drop in oil prices," Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago, told Bloomberg. "Crude, gasoline and diesel have probably peaked for a long time."

Gas prices have jumped nearly 20 cents a gallon since April 1 in California, where the average is 57 cents higher than the national average of $3.69.

Yet outrage over the surge has been muted. California drivers have seen dizzying ups and downs at the pump for more than a decade since the state began using its unique blend of reformulated and more expensive gas to combat smog.

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But not everyone is keeping mum.

"The last time we had this spike in prices the price of oil was going up and there was some kind of panic in the world. What the hell is going on now?" said Dave Stone of San Jose. "Profit taking? That's what it looks like to me. This is absurd."

Some motorists say they are trying to reduce their usage. When gas gets up to $4 a gallon, Jamie Hedlund of Oakley slows down on his 50-mile commute.

"When gas prices are lower, I tend to drive faster and I use more gas," he said. "The only changes that I make is in the way I drive. I already drive the speed limit, so I will slow down another 5 mph when I don't like the look of the gas prices."

One surprise in California is the price of diesel fuel, which is currently 8 cents lower than the price of gas. This is the first time that's happened in nearly a decade, and it's making some people consider buying a diesel vehicle.

"Some diesels get 40 miles a gallon; that's pretty good if prices stay cheaper," said Bill Barney of Hayward.

That's unlikely, analysts say, pointing to national prices, with gas going for $3.68 a gallon and diesel for $3.96.

There were some refinery problems in Southern California that temporarily reduced gas supplies in the state. But nationally, U.S. crude inventories are at their highest level since 1931, according to the Energy Department.

Meanwhile, there are other signs that the gas bubble is about to burst. The price of spot market gas at which major refineries sell excess fuel to discount chains like Rotten Robbie is falling fast -- 19 cents a gallon since Monday.

"The big news this week is that L.A. and the Bay Area spot market prices for surplus fuel have collapsed like a house of cards," said Bob van der Valk, senior editor of the Bakken Oil Business Journal.