ConservativeHome has learnt that the new seat of Kensington is likely to adopt Sir Malcolm Rifkind as its candidate on 18th December. There had been some concern in CCHQ that Sir Malcolm would seek the safer seat of Chelsea and Fulham and there would be a difficult battle with Greg Hands (the current MP for Hammersmith and Fulham). Sir Malcolm wisely decided not to risk a confrontation with Greg Hands because of the H&F MP's high standing. Greg Hands is widely credited with helping to mastermind the renaissance of Conservatism in H&F. At recent parliamentary and borough elections the Tory vote has risen markedly on the back of strong messages on lower taxation and a tough approach to crime.

It is the right of a boundary-affected sitting MP to face a closed selection meeting if he or she represents at least 50% of the new seat. Any MP with any voters in a new seat can also claim to be part of that closed selection meeting (where no outside candidates are invited to participate) and that was the procedure that led to last weekend's Anne McIntosh versus John Greenway contest. Once Kensingston and Chelsea and Fulham have confirmed their candidate choices nominations will open for Hammersmith. A number of H&F councillors are likely to apply. A leading candidate will be former CF Chairman Paul Bristow. More on the seats below.

The fight to be the Tory candidate for Kensington & Chelsea is becoming a fixed event in every parliament. Before 1997 we saw Alan Clark succeed the disgraced Sir Nicholas Scott. When the great diarist died Michael Portillo became the plum seat's MP. When Michael Portillo stood down the denizens of K&C chose Sir Malcolm Rifkind. It now appears - according to Dean Godson in this week's Spectator - that the former Foreign Secretary is in trouble with those same denizens:

"The charge-sheet of his opponents includes allegations that he is not as assiduous a constituency MP as he might be, considering the proximity of the Commons; he did not attend ward AGMs in the run-up to the local elections as often as they think he ought; and he did not campaign enough. Others grouse that Rifkind neither lives
in the constituency in the week nor at weekends nor in recess, residing
as he does in Westminster and Inveresk, East Lothian; that he
concentrates too much on foreign affairs; that he focuses too much on
extensive outside business interests such as his non-executive
chairmanship of ArmorGroup International plc. Critics also cite the
website monitoring MPs’ performance, TheyWorkForYou.com: Sir Malcolm
has attended just 48 per cent of votes in the Commons, making him 602nd
out of 646 MPs; he spoke in 18 debates in the last year, and thus was
413th."

Mr Godson lists the defences that Sir Malcolm makes against these charges but he believes that his greatest fault has been to fail to live up to the very high expectations that K&C Conservatives have for their MP(s).

None of this would probably matter in normal circumstances. There is not the unhappiness to initiate a deselection attempt but because of boundary changes Sir Malcolm will face some sort of selection contest. Most of Sir Malcolm Rifkind's seat will become a new Kensington seat but much will transfer to a new Chelsea and Fulham seat. Greg Hands, the widely-respected MP for the current seat of the Hammersmith & Fulham who helped design the campaign that saw the Tories take control of the H&F borough council, will be the frontrunner to contest that seat.

If you would like to report on a constituency selection race please email [email protected].