More evidence on the (absence of an) effect of restrictive voter registration laws on election outcomes

Back in February I described that most political science research has provided only mixed evidence that more restrictive voter registration laws (like what’s going on in Florida) result in a substantively different election outcome in states where they’re implemented. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight recently released another sophisticated analysis showing much of the same: the passage of restrictive registration laws in state at most results in about a 1% gain for Republicans (and possibly much less). That’s hardly enough to tip the scales, except in extremely rare circumstances where the election comes down to a razor-thin margin.

Again, this doesn’t speak to whether or not these laws are “morally” or “ideologically” a good idea, but it does suggest that the electoral consequences are likely to be minimal.