My blog provides alternative view on Kashmir dispute and politics of South Asia, especially India Pakistan relations. It aims to educate people that they can make informed judgements.

Wednesday, 20 June 2018

CPEC and new imperialism, Dr Shabir Choudhry

CPEC and
new imperialism

Dr Shabir
Choudhry20 June 2018

Majority of people of Pakistan, and to some extent, people of former
Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir live in a fantasy world - a world of their
dreams, which does not exist; and which is far away from the harsh realities of
the real world.

No matter what you tell them they will not listen until a looming
disaster hits them. Even then they will not acknowledge that it is a direct
result of their policies or negligence. They will divert the blame that they
are victims of Indian conspiracy, American Conspiracy and Jewish conspiracy, or
some other conspiracy. They are in a state of denial. For every failure or
blunder they have a separate conspiracy theory.

Anyone, who tries to reason with them and tell them you are making this
mistake or that mistake is, without any evidence and hesitation, accused of
being an ‘agent’ and a ‘traitor’. Because of this mind - set, many thinking
people prefer to remain quiet.

CPEC and Pakistan

Anyone, whoever tells them that CPEC can prove to be a disaster for
Pakistan, is perceived as ‘enemy’ or ‘agent’ of India or some other country.
Despite these illogical allegations and propaganda against me, I have always
cautioned Pakistan and pointed out what mistakes they are making.

The CPEC, in my opinion, will prove to be a disaster for Pakistan. I
even dare say that it can be an economic trap for Pakistan, which can be a
serious threat to sovereignty of Pakistan.

Any mega project requires a lot of planning. A number of feasibility reports
are carried out. Its funding is allocated. Possible risks are considered and
appropriate strategies are put in place. Its economic, political, social,
cultural and environmental impacts are considered and analysed with help of
experts in those fields. Contingency plans are worked out in case things don’t
go as planned.

The CPEC is not one mega project. It is an amalgamation of many mega
projects; and each project requires a separate planning and feasibility.
Unfortunately, the Pakistani government under pressure of China, and because of
domestic political and economic compulsions overlooked many important aspects
of these projects and jumped in to this quagmire, which appears to be very
attractive.

No one cared to carry out any
comprehensive research as to how each project will affect Pakistani economy,
politics, relationship with provinces, its export, its culture, environment,
balance of payments; Pakistan’s ability to manage such mega projects and
ability to pay pack loans with interest.

Since the CPEC is international in
nature with ramifications for the region, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean,
a detailed policy and strategy must have been worked out to deal with
implications of this.

One Pakistani commentator said with the urgency both sides have
concluded everything, and signed the treaties indicate that welfare of people
and Pakistan was not their top priority. Beijing has its own covert and overt
plans, some of which, Islamabad, at present, may not like to comprehend, as
they are mesmerised with the flow of dollars and economic and political gains.
In any case, they perhaps thought, by time covert plans or negative impact of
the CPEC becomes evident they won’t be there; and future leaders can pick up
the pieces.

This is not to suggest that there are no benefits for Pakistan at all.
Of course, Pakistan will get billions of worth of infrastructure, energy
projects, railway lines, dams etc, but will all that help to boost the Pakistan
economy?

A question is worth asking, will that help to equip Pakistani labour
with the skills necessary to operate and manage these projects, knowing well
what they have done with projects like Steel Mill? Furthermore, will that empower
downtrodden people and women? Above all, has Pakistan the capacity to pay back
these loans with high interests?

Above all, will these projects protect and enhance security and
sovereignty of Pakistan; or they will endanger them? Some economic and
strategic experts believe that these projects will prove to be disastrous to
the Pakistani economy and can endanger security and sovereignty of Pakistan.

The CPEC has around 21 projects, more could be added to the list as they
go along; and some of them are specifically designed to cater to produce
electricity that factories don’t close down because of lack of energy and
industrialists move away from Pakistan as many did before 2013. It is estimated
that around 17,000MW of electricity will be added to Pakistan’s national grid
before 2030, when the CPEC should be completed and starts producing, as
planned.

It is claimed that so far, the CPEC has provided employment to around
60,000 people. It is not revealed if these jobs are temporary or permanent. If
for example, the Metro project of Rawalpindi provided employment to 1000 people
when it was being constructed. One can boast that the Metro provided 1000 jobs.
The question is, after the completion of the project how many people are still
employed, now that it requires maintenance and running of the Metro.

Same will be the situation with all the infrastructure projects, for
example, roads, tunnels, bridges, railway lines, dams, etc, once they are
completed there will be no need for that kind of labour anymore. Pakistan would
need highly skilled for management, and appropriate maintenance of these
projects. It is debateable if Pakistan has people with transferable skills and
top class managerial and administrative skills to run these mega projects; or
they will be asking the Chinese to do that.

We can take this claim
on its face value that China - Pakistan friendship is ‘deeper than sea and
sweeter than honey’. Chinese government and their businessmen are very shrewd
and harsh when it comes to financial matters and protecting their national
interests. Sadly, I cannot say the same for the Pakistani rulers and their
businessmen, who have poor record of good governance and patriotism. They also
lack experience and know - how in many areas.

The Chinese have
brutal experience to attain their set targets, and make other businessmen and
countries, especially Third World countries their economic and financial
‘slaves’ by providing them large loans and by providing them with economic,
political and military help. With time, these countries and businessmen find
themselves fully trapped in the Chinese financial and military aid web; and
become dependent on support of Beijing in nearly all walks of life.

It is unfortunate that
the Pakistani rulers don’t mind accepting role of a dependent state. They also
have a great experience of living as a junior partner and playing a subservient
role; even acting as a ‘proxy’ of the powerful and influential countries.

Generally, imperialist
powers do not pronounce that they are coming to enslave your country and
exploit your resources. They camouflage their intentions. East India Company
did not announce that they were there to colonise India. They went there with
intention of trade and seek some concessions from the Mughal Emperor. With
time, they identified vulnerabilities of the Mughal Empire and saw an
opportunity to control parts of India.

New policy of
imperialists is not to invade countries, but to make them dependent and exploit
their vulnerabilities. They gradually take control of important areas of economy
in the host country. Over the years, the Chinese have excelled in this field,
and their influence and power has increased immensely. With time the local
businessmen find themselves unable to compete with the Chinese good; and start
closing down, or start selling the Chinese goods.

Experience of the
Pakistani rulers and the establishment, on the other hand, is in plundering
resources of their own country and depositing or investing abroad. Ironically,
they invest their money abroad; and spend huge resources to hold international
conferences to convince the world to invest in Pakistan.

CPEC is not a gift from China

The Chinese rulers
have a great vision and huge plans to assert Beijing’s power and influence
across the globe, especially in Asia and Africa. Their mega plan, Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) will connect more than 60 countries and estimated cost of that
is $900 billion dollars. The cost could go much higher than that, as costs do
increase with time. If all goes well, China will control or influence trade and
finance of many countries. More than 60% of the world population and 35% of the
global trade could be influenced by the BRI.

The CPEC has to be
seen in this broader context. Pakistan, in its entire life, has not managed a
mega project of this magnitude, and which has many dimensions, and which
requires highly specialised skills in various fields. No doubt, it is also
important to China as well. However, for China it is just another project,
which started with 46 billion US dollars, and now has reached 62 billion
dollars.

The CPEC is an
important link in the BRI; and will reduce around 10,000 miles shipping by sea.
The Pakistani port of Gwadar will help to transport goods to many countries,
including countries of Africa and Europe.

Many Pakistanis and
their supporters in Jammu and Kashmir erroneously think that the CPEC is like a
gift from China to help Pakistan to get out of economic mess. It is far from
truth. The CPEC is planned in such a way that it will help China to fulfil its
Asian dream of becoming a great economic, political and military power.

Pakistan, because of
their occupation of Gilgit Baltistan, has become a neighbour of China. Gilgit
Baltistan is a gateway to Pakistan, and the Chinese can use Pakistan’s
geographical position to advance their agenda. In other words, for China,
Pakistan is a stepping stone to move forward.

Dr Jia Yu, a Professor at the Institute of New Structural Economics (INSE), at
Peking University said,‘CPEC is not a gift’; and that ‘Pakistan
should not take CPEC for granted… Both public and private sectors must take ownership
of the opportunities.’ 1

The CPEC projects will improve opportunities for
investors. They can invest in various projects and benefit from this mega
project. The CPEC will help to connect towns, cities, ports and countries, and
that will provide great opportunity to ambitious business people, provided
Pakistan can persuade them that Islamabad will provide security and conducive
environment for the growth of trade and business.

If the confidence of local, and especially foreign
investors restored, the it is more than likely that they can invest in the
following sectors: power, construction, financial services, and
communication. There could also be other sectors which can attract potential
investors, important thing is to provide appropriate conditions and win their
confidence.

Pakistan has to provide security and assurance to the
business community that they and their investment will be safe in Pakistan. For
this purpose, Pakistan has to abandon their past work ethics and provide high
standard of service to potential investors. Maybe they need to visit China and
other countries; and sponsor economic and cultural ties that people to people
ties are strengthened and private sector can take ownership of these projects,
as suggested by Dr Jia Yu.

Many people expected that the foreign investors will rush
to Pakistan to invest in various projects. That has not happened, and there are
a number of reasons for this. Pakistan seriously needs to build a new image of
the country. The existing image cannot, and will not promote confidence of the
foreign investors because of the prevailing system of Pakistan and what is
happening there.

Some Pakistani experts are cautious of too much reliance
on the Chinese loans, and their strategic and economic ambitions and how that
might affect Pakistan’s future. They somehow, believe that investors from other
countries could be persuaded to invest in the CPEC related projects; and that
can ‘mitigate risk’ of the Chinese influence and control. They are of the
opinion that partnership of non - Chinese investors can reduce China’s ‘overwhelming economic and political leverage and mitigate
security concerns in sensitive projects’. 2

There are some hard and bitter realities which are
discouraging foreign businessmen to invest in Pakistan, especially in the CPEC
related projects. Apart from the security and political reasons, potential
investors are apprehensive about legal and bureaucratic hurdles; and above all
lack of transparency and economic viability of some
projects.

It must be noted that
Japan has pooled around 200 billion US dollars for the region’s infrastructure
related projects. However, unlike many CPEC projects, where transparency and
economic sustainability is not an issue, the Japanese strongly emphasis on
transparency and economic viability of all the projects.

Apart from many
Pakistani and some international experts, the IMF is also apprehensive about
the CPEC related projects; and seriously doubts Pakistan’s ability to pay back
the CPEC loans on top of other financial commitments. It is widely believed
that Pakistan will, once again, knock at the door of IMF for a bailout package.
It is believed that with the new IMF package may come with some restrictions on
the CPEC projects.

The State Bank of Pakistan
reported in November 2017, that Pakistan had net Foreign Direct Investment of
$207 million. Lion’s share of this FDI came from China, which is $206 million. 3

It is clear that
businessmen of other countries are still reluctant to come forward, and risk
their money and their lives. Even the Chinese investors are not very
enthusiastic; and they have strong reasons for this. It is because of that the
learned Professor said, don’t take CPEC as a ‘gift’; and urged Pakistan to take
initiative that Private sector can step in to take ‘ownership of the opportunities’.

The Professor
visualise establishment of China towns in Pakistan and settlement of the
Chinese people in Pakistan if appropriate assurances and facilities are given
to those who have already invested here. In her view, this will encourage other
Chinese to come to Pakistan and invest.

Wishful Pakistani
thinking is that China is benevolent and caring country which loves Pakistan
and people of Pakistan. They think unlike America; they can trust China which
aims to help Pakistan militarily and economically; and in case of crises and a
war with India or American China will rush to their rescue.

The longer the
Pakistani elite lives with this illusion, the deeper they will get in to
crises. No one burn his hands to save another person; and no country risks its
future to safeguard another country, especially when the elite of that country
is least concerned about future of that country. The Chinese have not descended
from the Heaven to make Pakistan strong and robust to face challenges of the 21st
Century without any pain and hard work.

China certainly has
enormous economic reserves which they want to utilise to make China great; and
in doing so, they will need vulnerable economies which will consume the Chinese
goods and help China to expand.

China will spend 62
billion dollars and get 90 billion dollars back before 2030; and the CPEC will
strengthen the Chinese hold in Pakistan. It will help China to transport its
goods to various markets in the world. In case of crises in South China Sea,
the CPEC will provide alternative route. Not only that, long lease of Gwadar
port for 90 years is also a serious cause of concern to many.

The Gwadar town or
village will become a modern city like Dubai if all goes well. Currently the
town has serious drinkable watershortage, but with the Chinese money and
workforce all problems could be resolved. Announcement of one Chinese company
to build modern housing societies for ‘some 500,000 Chinese workers in
Gwadar by 2022’, is a serious cause of concern to the thinking people. 4

Who are these Chinese
workers – 500,000 of the, and what are they going to do in Gwadar? Won’t that
create many social, cultural, political and security problems? Do these
‘workers’ have a military background or they will be doing some other work, but
what work, especially when Gwadar is transformed as planned?

Think it this way.
Once the Gwadar is ready, the plan is to make it like Dubai or Sharam El Sheikh
of South Asia where tourists can come and enjoy themselves. What impact will
all this have on conservative, volatile and intolerant society of Pakistan?
According to the plan, as announced last year, and published in Dawn, people
from China and Middle East will be issued visas on arrival; but people of Pakistan
will have to apply for visas as they do now.

It must be pointed out
that Sri Lanka also borrowed a large amount of money to build infrastructure,
which proved to be economically untenable. Failure to pay debts resulted in
china taking over Hambantota port; and Sri Lanka has not only lost parts of its
sovereignty, but also a large part of their revenue goes in debt repayment.

Pakistan’s neighbours,
foes and some friends are concerned about rumours that China was constructing a
naval base in Gwadar. After the US raid against Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad,
the ‘Pakistan Defence Minister Ahmad Mukhtar publicly announced that China
would build a naval base in Gwadar (which Beijing promptly denied)’. 5

One view is that Ahmed
Mukhtar said this in anger and to frighten other countries that China is there
to help and protect Pakistan; and that will dissuade India and America to take
any military action against Pakistan. Pakistan and China, for obvious reasons,
deny these rumours and insist that the CPEC and Gwadar are business projects.

Some analysts suggest
that China may have one naval base in Gwadar, and the second one in a small
coastal village of Jiwani, about 60 Kilometres away from Gwadar. This was
reported in Washington Times, and confirmed by other sources. If this is true,
then this many bring a disaster to Pakistan rather than economic revolution. 6

Pakistani economy and the
CPEC

The CPEC related projects with a lot of publicity and
some criticism have completed first five years. Although first phase of the
CPEC projects should all be completed by 2020, but by and large, many projects
have been completed, which include some energy projects as well.

In the next phase, there will be more emphasis on Special
Economic Zones. This is a complicated matter which requires agreement and
support of the provinces. Locations of these SEZs in absolutely crucial. There
could be considerable controversy among the Provinces over locations of these
SEZs because of potential benefits.

Before a location is
finalised for Special Economic Zone, the concerned authorities have to take a
number of factors in to consideration. For example, security of the SEZ, other
risks, access to roads and energy, transparency, corruption and rule of law
etc. Also, the authorities must ensure that these Special Economic Zones are
for all the investors from other countries; and they all have equal
opportunities and fair treatment.

The CPEC was designed to be completed in three phases. The first stage should
complete by 2020. The first phase of the CPEC is supposed to remove all major
hindrances to Pakistan’s social and economic development, which means increased
economic growth, and more confidence in economic system of Pakistan. Of course,
with that should come improvement in exports, reduction in imports, stable
currency; and better international economic rating.

The CPEC has brought money and provided more energy to
Pakistan’s National grid. I am interested to evaluate how extra flow of money;
more energy and better infrastructure has helped economy of Pakistan.

One Pakistani
economist and analyst, Mr Salem Farrukh, in his article titled ‘The IMF’ wrote
on 15 June 2018:

‘Pakistan’s
economy is in the intensive care unit as we continue to focus on Imran Khan’s
yatra and Reham Khan’s apparitions. Our current account deficit is projected to
be $17 billion. Add that to around $8 billion in debt repayments and the
financing gap (in plain English: the dollars that we need to borrow) stands at
a tall $25 billion. 7

If the economy is in
‘intensive care’, and people who matter are busy playing politics and fooling
their own people, how will that equip the country with skills and enable them
to meet the challenges they face. When a patient is in the intensive care,
unreserved expert care and treatment is required; otherwise the patient could
collapse.

The learned writer asks who will
provide these 25 billion dollars? Of course, in order to save the CPEC and
support Belt and Road Initiative, China can provide more funds. But important
question is for how long they will continue to provide funds?

The IMF will be more than happy to
extend helping hand to Pakistan, but that won’t come without some restrictions.
The IMF has provided a 50-billion-dollar rescue package to Argentine on 7 June
2018. Once IMF steps in, they control a number of key economic policies, as
pointed out by Alan Reynolds, an expert with a think tank called the
‘Independent Institute’:

“over the past two decades, the IMF has
promised cheap loans to foreign governments in order to bribe them into
pursuing suicidal economic policies designed by IMF technocrats, rather than by
their own elected representatives”.8

What this suggests is
that IMF rescue package is no guarantee that the country will be out of
economic problems, and will be on a road to recovery. There a number of
vulnerable countries where the IMF did not resolve the economic problems; and
countries were burdened with extra loans and domestic problems. In other words,
there are not many success stories attributed to the IMF bailout packages.

The IMF also functions
like a business enterprise. They have to make profits to pay their staff and
give out loans. They have to attract clients to borrow money from them. Losing
clients is equal to losing business, which will result in losing staff and
perks. For this purpose, they have to attract clients and sell economic
packages to client countries – a loan on low interest rate generally attracts
clients.

Pakistan is South Asia’s
second largest economy, which has sixth largest population, sixth largest army,
and is equipped with nuclear weapons. However, in economic terms, the country
is not doing so well. Since the 1980s, Pakistan has received 12 IMF bailouts.
The last bailout ended in September 2016.

Saleem Farrukh thinks,
a new economic package from the IMF will result in:

‘currency
devaluation; increases in the electricity tariff; increases in gas tariffs, and
increasing the tax burden’.

Will devaluation help
Pakistani economy? Will increment in electricity, gas and tax make people of
Pakistan happy; or that will create social and economic unrest? It must be
pointed out that Pakistan’s gas and electricity tariff is already highest in
the region. Any increase will make people extremely unhappy and resentful.

Mohammad Ahmed Shamsi,
Chairman Traders Association said China has 90% share of Pakistan’s toys
market; and this monopoly like situation has resulted in closing down of local
industry. ‘Toys worth Rs500-600 million arrive in Karachi alone every year from
China’, he said. 9

Apart from that, Chinese
products dominate various sectors in Pakistan. In artificial jewellery, India
and Hong Kong are strong. However, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia
and Thailand are competing with the Chinese in children’s readymade garments.
In this sector, China perhaps has up to 30% market share. It is believed that
after the completion of the CPEC Chinese share of the market will increase
immensely.

Another worrying
aspect is availability of Chinese confectionery items in abundance, items like
chocolates and toffees etc; fear is that some of these imports are non-halal
products.

Data provided by
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reveal that ‘exports from Pakistan stood
only $1.365bn in 2016-17 as against imports of $7.850bn in 2016-17 from China’.
One can see the balance of trade is strongly in favour of China; and the latest
figures confirm this bitter fact. Goods from China ‘rose to $9.322 billion
in July-April 2017-18 while exports from Pakistan remained dismal at $1.444bn’.10

The latest economic
data also reveal that Pakistani exports have declined; and there has been a
sharp rise in imports. Furthermore, Pakistani reserves have fell sharply and
Pakistan had to seek more financial help from China and Saudi Arabia.

Furthermore, there is
a serious problem with balance of payments. It is claimed that due to fall of
Pakistani currency and other factors, Pakistan is far behind schedule in its
international debt obligations. The State Bank of Pakistan
statement says:

The market
– based adjustments is reflective of the country’s external balance of payments
position which is under pressure due to a large trade deficit’. 11

Asia Times, in its
publication of 18 June 2018 says

‘The government needs to
improve its debt management and extend its maturity structure. And it’s time to
make sure that the projects being invested in start giving returns.” 12

The learned writer
agrees with other economic experts that Pakistan has to knock door of the IMF.
I predicted this last year, in May 2017, that the Muslim League N government
will not go to the IMF because of political reasons; and they will let the
caretaker government to take the initiative and negotiate with the IMF.

It
must be pointed out that Pakistan achieved 5.79% growth rate, which is highest in 13 years.
Some sectors also have shown progress. However, critics say it was partly due
to low oil prices; and the completion of IMF bailout
programme of 6.6 US billion dollars that ended in September 2016.

Scale
of the problem can be seen from this fact that Pakistan’s foreign debt
liabilities have increased to 92 billion US dollars; and that is 76% increase
since 2013. This debt liability is likely to increase because of a sharp fall
of the Rupee against dollar. Pakistan has to pay $8.5 billion in the foreign
debt repayments before the end June 2018.

“We
have rising debt servicing and faltering growth – the short-term solution is
the IMF, it’s probably a matter of months.”13

All this confirms that
despite influx of dollars and building of most of the infrastructure and energy
projects associated with the first phase of the CPEC, the Pakistani economy is
still in a mess. Hitherto there is no evidence of any outside interference to
halt the progress of the CPEC projects. In other words, no one can accuse that
because of some outside interference the government could not stabilise
economy, and make progress in certain fields.

However, the situation
can change and groups who are against the CPEC can organise themselves and
target the CPEC routes either in Turkistan, Gilgit Baltistan or in some parts
of KPK or Balochistan. It must be pointed out that in areas of KPK, FATA,
Balochistan and to some extent in Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan, anger and
resentment against Pakistan army and secret agencies has radically increased
over the years, mainly because of heavy-handed approach and massive human
rights violations.

The Pakistani elite
need to fear this frightening scenario, when there will be a growing Political
instability in Pakistan, coupled with angry groups resorting to violence in
order to derail the progress of the CPEC, because some Baloch nationalist
groups believe the CPEC is designed to crush their movement and plunder the
resources of Balochistan. I hope my apprehensions are wrong; but anything can
happen in that charged and volatile region.

In the next five months about $3 billion
will need to be paid to creditors including the IMF, World Bank, Paris Club and
China and the nation may try to reschedule some of those, said Vaqar Ahmed, the
deputy executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in
Islamabad.

Another Pakistani analyst,
Khalil Ahmed said:

‘Pakistani economy is systematically destroyed; and the
Pakistani businessmen are discouraged. Instead of utilizing skills of educated
Pakistan people, Chinese people are employed. The Chinese are given tax
exemptions and other facilities; and they are controlling business and trade in
Pakistan. Now they are selling their products directly in Pakistan. This way
economy of Pakistan is losing two ways. First, demand of Pakistani products continues
to fall. Secondly, those people who were importing the Chinese products and
selling them in Pakistan are losing and closing down. These
people were making some profits and supporting their families. Now, Chinese
people sell Chinese products directly in Pakistan. 14

He further says, our
society, culture and economy still has not come out of psychological, social
and cultural influence of the British; and because of the CPEC, we are now
faced with another economic, social and cultural challenge.

It looks Pakistan is
slowly, but surely going under the influence of the Chinese domination. A time
will come when most valuable sectors of the Pakistani economy will be under direct
or indirect control of China. Similarly, due to control over IT sector,
internet and electronic media, Chinese culture will greatly influence the
existing Pakistani culture and Islamic values.

The government and all
those who are benefitting from the CPEC can sing laurels that it is a game
changer for Pakistan, in view of the above, it is a game changer, but not in
favour of Pakistan.

How can the CPEC bring
economic stability and empower ordinary people when the local industry is fast
closing down; and people are becoming unemployed. How can the CPEC is a game
changer in favour of Pakistan when Pakistani exports are declining, and there
is a sharp increase in imports. Foreign debts are increasing, and Pakistan is
having difficulty in paying instalments of the existing loans which does not
include the CPEC loans.

In order to strengthen
economy, the Pakistani government must protect interests of the local industries.
The foreign companies, especially the Chinese have tendency to bring in labour
from China; and only hire local labour for menial work. So, the government has
to ensure that investors must provide employment to the local people.

If political and
economic instability prevails; and angry groups resorts to violence, then China
will not remain a spectator. It is believed they have their commandoes,
intelligence agencies operating inside Pakistan, they will do what is necessary
to protect the Chinese interests. Already China and Pakistan are sharing
intelligence information; and it is also possible that Pakistan may seek the
Chinese assistance to control the deteriorating situation.

If the above scenario
emerges, will other regional and international players remain quiet? In view of
economic collapse of Pakistan, what will China do? Can Pakistan be forced to denuclearise
in exchange of economic help and territorial integrity?

About Me

Dr Shabir Choudhry has done extensive research on the issue of Kashmir and Indo Pakistan relations. He passed BA Honours in Politics and History, and Mphil in International Relations (title of the thesis, ‘Kashmir and Partition of India’); and title of his PhD thesis is ‘Kashmir- An issue of a nation not a dispute of a land’.

Apart from this Dr Shabir Choudhry passed Post Graduates Certificates in Education, and NVQ Assessor’s qualifications; and taught English in London.

Political Achievements

Founder member of JKLF (Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front established in 1977) and got elected as a Press Secretary in 1984.

Became its Secretary General in 1985, and resigned from this post in 1996.

Got elected President of JKLF and Europe in May 1999, and decided not to contest in elections of July 2001.

Said good - bye to the JKLF as it is in many groups and is largely seen as advancing a Pakistani agenda on Kashmir dispute, and set up a new party Kashmir National Party in May 2008.

.

At present, he is:

·Spokesman Kashmir National Party and Director Diplomatic Committee;

·Spokesman for International KashmirAlliance;

·Founder member and Director Institute of Kashmir Affairs;

Previously

·A founder Member and Trustee/ Director of London based registered charity, Kashmir Foundation International and resigned from this position in August 2001.

·Regularly take part in the Sessions of the UN Human Rights (Commission) now Council in Geneva; and address various conferences and seminars to oppose violence and highlight the Kashmir cause.

·Participated in a Round Table Conference on Kashmir, organised by Socialist Group of European Parliament in Brussels in 1993.

·Addressed as a Chief Guest in a seminar on issue of Mangla Dam during the UN Sub Commission’s proceedings in August 2003.

·Addressed as a key - note speaker in a seminar on the issue of Gilgit and Baltistan, organised by Association of British Kashmiris.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker on human rights conference in Paris in 1991.

·Addressed at CambridgeUniversity as a Chief Guest in a conference on Kashmir in 1990.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker at New Delhi conference on Kashmir, which was part of Track Two diplomacy in November 2000.

·In September 2008, addressed a Conference arranged by Interfaith International in Geneva, topic of which was:“Kashmir Issue, Terrorism and Human Rights”.

·Addressed as a speaker in a NGO Conference on Self - Determination in Geneva in August 2000.

·Addressed as a keynote speaker in a fringe meeting of Liberal Democrats at their Annual Conference in Brighton in 1995.

·Participated in World Human Rights Conference in Vienna in 1993.

·Before President Clinton's visit to India and Pakistan in 2000, lead a JKLF delegation to the State Department to discuss Kashmir dispute and situation in South Asia.

·Also had two rounds of meetings with senior State Department officials before President Musharraf’s meeting to Washington in June 2003.

·Apart from that had meetings with senior officials including Ministers of different countries, and also held many meetings with the State Department and Foreign and Commonwealth Office officials on number of occasions.

·Played important role in advancing a Kashmiri perspective on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; and also helped Baroness Emma Nicholson with her report ‘Kashmir: present situation and future prospects’, which was adopted by the European Parliament in May 2007.

·Won first prize in an essay competition in Urdu in 1976. It was organised by High Commission of Pakistan in London, and title of the essay was 'Qaaid-e- Azam's role in Islamic History'.

·Apart from that have addressed conferences in Brussels, Geneva, Toronto, Islamabad, Delhi, and

Publications

·Got first Urdu novel ‘Fareena’ published at the age of eighteen.

·Second Urdu novel ‘Bay-Khataa’ which was about the problems of Asian youths living in UK published in 1983.

·Third Urdu book ‘Pakistan and Kashmiri struggle for independence’ published in 1990.

·Fourth Urdu book is also on Kashmiri struggle, 'Is an independent Kashmir a conspiracy?'

·Apart from that has twenty books and booklets published in English on various aspects of the Kashmiri struggle.

·Recent publications are: Kashmir dispute as I see it

·Different perspective on Kashmir

·JKLF visit to Pakistan Administered Kashmir

·Kashmir Needs Change of Heart

·If not self - determination then what?

·Emma Nicholson report- who has won?

·Struggle for independence, Jihad or proxy war (Introduction by Baroness Emma Nicholson)

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Future publications

Following books were completed some time ago and shall be published in near future:

In Search of Freedom - My visit to Srinagar and Islamabad

Kashmir and Partition of India

A brief background

Dr Shabir Choudhry was born in a small village called Nakker Shimali (near Panjeri) in District Bhimber, Azad Kashmir. He went to UK in 1966, and like other people from the region, holds a dual nationality. He left secondary school in 1970 with no qualifications and began his life as a textile worker.

In 1975 he started part time studies and passed Matriculation from Government High School Panjeri, passed ‘O’ and ‘A’ levels from UK, and resumed full time degree course in 1981, and passed BA (Hons) in Politics and History in 1984.

He continued full time and part time jobs until he got his Mphil. He passed his PGCE (Post Graduates Certificate in Education) in 1990, and then started full time job as a Lecturer. Due to health problems he resigned from teaching in 1999. At present he is self - employed, provides private tuition, translation and interpretation and consultancy.

Through out his adult life he has actively worked for the cause of Kashmir, and even during long illness he effectively carried out his responsibilities as a leader of the JKLF, a ‘prolific writer’ and consistent campaigner of Rights Movement and peace in Jammu and Kashmir and South Asia.