2013 Edmonton Oilers in Review: Jerred Smithson

That’s an easy assumption to make about a 34-year-old utility forward with an expiring contract whose best years are behind him, and who never was an offensive dynamo at any stage.

When Craig MacTavish talks about bottom sixers who are a “non-factor”, at first blush Smithson seems to be a poster boy for the type: a minus player every year, a Relative Corsi routinely in the minus double digits, who at his offensive peak scored about one point every five games. Yowsa. Yet this is one player who may offer more than meets the eye, one who at least warrants due process before he’s allowed to enter the open market next month.

Smithson was the last player to join the Edmonton Oilers in 2013. Picked up at the trade deadline in Steve Tambellini’s final move as GM, he played just 10 games down the stretch as the blue and orange faded into the sunset. My most serious knock of the acquisition was not of the player involved but of its timing (and I’m not referring to his wife being in labour at the time of the deal). Oilers needed such a depth centre, be it Smithson or another eminently-available player like Adam Hall or David Steckel, in early February when a rash of injuries struck the pivot position. By the time help finally arrived in early April, Edmonton had played over 30 games with a stop gap at 4C — primarily an out-of-position Ryan Smyth or an out-of-his-league Chris VandeVelde, with cameos from Lander and even Lennart Petrell in the role. To this observer, lack of depth at the critical pivot position was a team weakness for most of the season.

In the little time we had to evaluate him as an Oiler, Smithson showed himself as a defensive player first, last, and only. The sort of player that one learns to appreciate over time, not necessarily in the short term.

For sure he brings little enough to the table offensively. In a 588-game career that has seen him play parts of ten seasons, Jerred has never averaged so much as one shot on goal per game, with his career rate of 0.74 ranking among the lowest totals of any forward who is not primarily an enforcer. In his six full seasons in Nashville, he scored between 12 and 16 points every year, consistent production albeit at a very modest level.

One does, however, need to put that in the context of what he was being asked to do. One clue about any player’s role can be found his career special teams numbers: in Smithson’s case 10 shorthanded points in his career compared to just two on the powerplay, a sure indicator of a severely defensive role. In Nashville he was an underrated piece on a generally-underrated team that was a playoff contender throughout his time there, a squad that finished in the top half of the NHL in goals against each and every year from 2005-12. A versatile player capable of playing all three forward positions, Smithson typically averaged about 12 minutes per game, but they were tough, defence-first minutes.

While defensive statistics are something of a mixed bag, let’s have a look at what’s available: the first two listed below come from Behind the Net and date back to 2007; the rest, from NHL.com, go back to the Second Bettman Lockout, after which Smithson joined the Preds and established himself as a full-time NHLer at age 26. As much as possible we will compare him to other forwards on his own team.

Quality of Competition/Teammate: From 2007-11 Smithson faced 4th, 4th, 3rd and 3rd toughest competition (Corsi Relative version) on the Preds. He did so while lining up with relatively weak teammates, who ranked 13th, 12th, 11th, and 9th. That’s a lot of mismatches. The last two seasons have been a mixed bag, complicated by the fact that he has been traded mid-season both times. Behind the Net simply blends the numbers which makes direct comps to either set of teammates a bit more problematic, though it’s clear he’s no longer been facing the toughs.

Zone Starts: Smithson faced the hardest Zone Starts of any regular Nashville forward in five out of five years dating back to 2007, with a percentage in the mid-30s each year. That’s tough sledding. In 2013 he was either #1 or #2 toughest in Florida at the time of the trade at around 48% on a team which for reasons unknown had a significant majority of its end zone faceoffs at the good end of the ice.

Faceoffs: On the sunny side of 50% eight seasons in a row, and north of 54% every year but 2007-08 (“just” 52.1%). This despite routinely taking a ton of lower-percentage shorthanded faceoffs and hardly any on the powerplay. At even strength Smithson is a solid 57% in over 3000 draws since 2005.

Hits: The 6’3, 209-pound forward (for all those faceoffs, he’s played quite a bit at wing as well) consistently takes his pound of flesh. He has wound up either first or second on his team in hits the last eight seasons in a row, leading the Predators every year from 2007-11. In 2013 he finished the season with more hits than any other Oiler forward, although obviously most of those were credited while he was in Flordia.

Blocked shots: Smithson has been top three on his team eight seasons in a row, and was #1 on four occasions, again including 2013.

Turnovers: Credited with more takeaways than giveaways eight seasons in a row, with a net 217 : 137 margin overall. That’s a ratio of about 1.6 : 1 in a league where the average rate is below 1 : 1.

Penalty-killing: Smithson has been on the top 3 of his team in shorthanded ice time per game for the last eight seasons in a row, including five straight years as Nashville’s #1 penalty killer.

When you take all that into consideration — and it’s quite a lot, especially when you note the phrase “eight seasons in a row” repeated time and again — the single-digit minus and the Relative Corsi in the -10 to -12 range that he has posted most of those years are suddenly not so unimpressive after all. Instead they are suggestive of some pretty decent damage control under harsh circumstances. Smithson has taken on tough defensive minutes and not gotten killed, a valuable skill. Moreover, he has done this on the cheap, earning a total of $5,025,000 over the past eight years, with his current contract representing the high-water mark at just $800,000.

That pact is expiring forthwith, and Smithson is set to enter the open market this summer. Too bad, in that he’s younger, bigger, and more rugged than Eric Belanger, the guy nominally slotted in that troublesome 4C slot for now. Not to mention a cool million cheaper. One of MacT’s biggest problems in dealing with his bottom six this summer is that it’s all the wrong contracts that still have a year to run.

It may well be that Smithson’s usefulness has passed. Perhaps Nashville dumping their good soldier to Florida and attempting to upgrade his position with Paul Gaustad was a tell on where things were headed as the wear and tear of those tough minutes took its toll.

Still, Oilers probably could do worse for 4th/5th line forward depth; bear in mind that at season’s end Smithson was the biggest active forward on the team, while his seasonal totals in faceoff percentage, hits, and blocked shots were all #1 on the squad. Maybe it’s not a bad idea to have a Barry Trotz-trained veteran as a bottom-of-the-roster grinder on a young team that is still learning the ropes defensively. From this distance such a player might make an ideal 13th forward.

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