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I agree with everyone that this is certainly not all that happen. Or maybe not even what happen at all. As mentioned, his theory so far could account for all new information presented this episode, but it actually explained almost non of what presented in the last one. Here's some of my guess on what Houtarou theory's does not explain:

Why she cry? -> Some types of crime or violence.
Why her uncle refused to answer? -> It either an un-honorable act (which can affect his family name) or it involves other people's reputation.
And then later refused to console her? -> He think the end justify the mean, but he does not think his mean should be praised or forgiven.

I still don't think of murder level crime given the nature of this story, but maybe lies or partial truth to get the crowd worked up. Maybe that's how he motivate the students. Then, that might led to violence and possibly someone might be badly injured or dead. I do think that if you ask a leader of any protesting that turn violence, that would be the type of reaction you'll get. He/She does not regretted starting the protest since he/she think the cause is something worth fighting for. However, since it turned violence and people got hurt, they're not proud of that part either.

Chitanda said the exact same thing I was thinking when Oreki finished his conclusion. Why did Chitanda cry, since this conclusion did not seem as harsh? Considering the preview, it looks like Oreki purposefully withheld information that he felt would make her cry.

I'm guessing that the things Oreki predicted were true. However, there was a much darker secret that he did not reveal. They did mention that there were sacrifices. The question then becomes, what were the sacrifices? Also, the anthology was named Hyou-ka, which I saw that an alternative title was Frozen Desserts. Hyou is usually translated as ice. Why would Chitanda's uncle get expelled for heading the student body to protest for extra days of a cultural festival? What display did this "silent" and "kind" uncle show?

Did the teachers eventually started to beat him up, while he stood there in defiance? The protest started 4 months before the cultural festival, so the event must have occured at or around the festival. Did the teachers automatically give him failing grades or bullied him? Did his actions lead up to someone dying, even if it wasn't his fault? Did they threaten his family? He must have lost something really dear to him, and I am racking my brains out without an idea of what it really is.

So after reading watching (Yes, that was intentional) Hyouka ep 4, I thought of a few things that may seem a bit mysteriously overthrown in the temporary Oreki theory.

Remember that Oreki DID not propose a theory, instead, he proposed a conclusion. But in reality, that conclusion did not account to (quoted from thundrakkon) "Hyouka", her uncle's character, and sacrifices. It also didn't account for what her uncle had to gave up.

By theory, Chitanda's uncle got expelled from school in a silent matter, so to say. People called him hero. However, judging by Oreki's actions, he either forgot or intentionally withhold a vital information: if the school expelled Jun after 4 months to avoid further angering the student body, then why is Jun being remembered still by the members of the Classics Club and the (whatever org was that) thing... Why was Oreki's sister pushing to keep the Classics Club alive? Does Oreki's sister know something, being a former Classics Club member? Did she saw Hyouka vol. 1? Why did Chitanda cry? If Jun was famous enough, then his explusion would have erupted a new defiance from the students....

... so what was the trigger?

me thinks it's this....

Spoiler for The reason Chitanda cried was....:

...
...
because his Uncle was expelled and put to shame through a highly embarrassing event.

If there was no violence, then the school council would have NO reason to expel him in the first place. So why would he be expelled? The key is in the reference "niece of time". Remember when I said that the niece of time had something to do with the daughter of time, somehow. Somehow, it can all connect. 45 years ago, a silent scandal broke out over the entire school, somehow insinuated by the school council. This scandal earned him an expulsion, and thus breaking Chitanda family's reputation. By manipulating "history", the school can have a chance to expel a famous student by making him infamous, without any worry of further anger. This also explains why there are so few records of it 45 years ago, because many students were torn by the scandal. Many (at the time) still thought of him as a hero.

So...to preserve the family's reputation, Chitanda's uncle had to dissappear.

I must say, I do like the main character Houtarou in this anime. He's an interesting character and someone fun to watch, listen to and follow.

I finished watching episode 4.

Right off the bat we're reminded off the minor topic from the last episode about Eru's uncle missing. Then we're introduced to some good old humour by Satoshi who decides to call out to Houtarou as if he was his lover Such a nice way to start an episode

I laughed at the disappointment Satoshi showed when there wasn't a bunch of maids to greet them at the mansions

This episode ran rather smoothly. It was picking out theories and throwing them away, and then near the end it picks up when Houtarou give's his fascinating explanation

I thought they would drag this mystery throughout the whole season, so I'm quite surprised it will apparently be solved next week. Maybe the next big mystery they'll have to solve will be the Uncle's disappearance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Metaneo

Spoiler for My Conclusion:

Murder....
or atleast someone was severly injured. Chitanda's uncle, or anyone for that matter, would not want to talk about such an incident. His stubborness over talking about it would certainly be justified.

Chitanda's reaction to what her uncle told is also important, telling a small child about a murder, I believe, would get that kind of reaction. Her uncle didnt try to console her because there was nothing he could do to console her. Most likely as to why she would want to forget being told what happened, she wouldnt want to associate the uncle she loved with such a horrific incident.

This could also explain the delay on the expulsion from school. The murder took place in June, but the crime wasnt discovered until October.

I'd put more down but I lack information and time to do so, as it is past midnight here.

Feel free to tear this theory apart btw.

If Chitanda's uncle had killed somebody, he wouldn't have gotten off with a simple expulsion. And he wouldn't be revered as a hero.

I agree it's highly likely somebody died, but I'm leaning toward it having been an accident rather than an outright murder. The victim was probably somebody close to the Uncle and he never truly got over her death. Even though he was not personally responsible, he was expelled because he was the leader of the movement. Perhaps he was even the one who asked for the blame to be put on him and him only in order to spare the other students, hence why everybody admired him so much.

Still investigating what happened in the Classics club 45 years ago.
Chitanda sure is all fired up about it.
Guess they're doing it to clear things up once and for all as well as out of curiosity.
Oreki's mind is a beautiful thing, his fast deduction is amazing.
Looks like the whole thing was about a cultural festival..

I agree it's highly likely somebody died, but I'm leaning toward it having been an accident rather than an outright murder. The victim was probably somebody close to the Uncle and he never truly got over her death. Even though he was not personally responsible, he was expelled because he was the leader of the movement. Perhaps he was even the one who asked for the blame to be put on him and him only in order to spare the other students, hence why everybody admired him so much.

I'm split between it being a "heat of the moment\mob mentality" type of murder, or if it was truly an accident. But at this point I am convinced someone died. It was stated the incident involved the entire student body, and that he made a "sacrifice."

Maybe a large group of students did something very stupid and he took the heat for them?

At first, I thought the episode dragged along, but as they started to piece everything together, I definitely found it more interesting, and it culminated in a good way with Oreki's theory. Probably the best episode so far.

Ok ... I spoiler'd myself by reading the English TL of the first vol of the LN. And I really, really enjoyed it. The adaptation has been extremely well done thus far, and if it keeps up quality wise (and on so many levels for me personally) then this show will defintiely find itself in the "most-looked-forward-to-series-this-season" category for me alongside Sakamichi, Acchi Kocchi and Achiga-Hen!