It's complicated. I got outta stocks going into the third week of May. By the end of June,I'd left 4% on the table vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. By last Friday, I was ahead by about 20% vs if I'd stayed all in in the best stock funds. If I was a set and forget kinda guy inna Balanced Pooled Fund, you could reduce those swings by about 75%, to 1% and -4%.numbers. Sounds like not a big deal. But when the swings are on the upside, those figures work the other way. So it sounds like a big deal. But it depends. Back inna early 90's, the mandatory minimum contribution was less, I was a traveler in another local where money was better, the reciprocity was lower, I contributed the minimum, and the money in the account was not enough to make the swings up and down very significant. Now, I'm back home, I've bumped my contribution up over the years, it's almost two decades later, and I got some coin in the account. Now, when the market is raging up or down, I can make or lose significantly more in a week in the 401 than I can at work. I see why some guys and gals are all in in the Stable Value Fund. They bust their balls and ovaries at work and make or lose in a week twice what they show on the check. Down sides can be vicious and you can lose inna week what took 6 weeks to make onna upside. That can make you crazy. But the swings now are the same as a decade two ago. It's where you are that makes the difference.

And where I'm at, makes me hyper. The wife's retired and I'm last one standing. I've decided to put my head down (motorcycle racing term) because the finish line is in sight. If this was a bull market, I'd check the balances once a week, and once a month, I'd allocate that month's contributions and maybe reallocate between funds a skosh. And if I'd been putting in the max for 20 years, I'd be in maximum conservation mode, maximally risk adverse. I'd have the job done already. But I got stuff left to do. And we're in a bear market. So I watch like a hawk. And like a hawk, I do nothing if there isn't anything there. And there hasn't been, nothing but down side. There will be upside, but I don't want to waste time and energy trying to move on something that is not real. A lotta lookin' and analysing and no action. But I'm months ahead of bein' all in in stocks and when the time comes, if I'm smart and lucky, I'll be all in for the up side. For the 75% greater gain of risk management that you don't think about when you hear the term "risk management".... I'll let you know as it develops...

Last week's strength had far more to do with market dynamics than it did with the news flow. -- Rev Shark

Monday Eve...

I don't like the news flow, I don't like the breadth, I don't like the macro, I don't like the unfinished business, I don't like the disconnect between Main St and Wall St. I like that bailing out in may was right, if a little early...

But if we get to 1230 and confirm a breakout, I'll have to figure what I don't like don't matter.....

But regardless of whether or not I end up liking it if and when it happens, I don't like it today.

Tues

Wed

Rev Shark and a lotta other guys are of the opinion that if we hit the 1120 to 1105 level hard, it won't hold. The next level of support is a long way down and the drop could be breathtaking... Lotta risk right here... And I don't see the reward.

When I look at returns YTD

I feel better and better to be outa stocks. I will buy some hand over fist at some point... prolly from sellers who wished they had sold them earlier and for more money.... At the right price, almost everything makes sense for a trade. But for a 401, I wanna buy stuff when the charts go from lower left to upper right.

Bonds and cash inna 401a. Protecting what I got. There are old riders and bold riders. But there ain't no old bold riders. At least not without luck and brains and the experience to know the difference. I'm an old bold rider, and I'm parked under the overpass, waiting out the weather.

In the discussion that followed, the city officials asked a few technical questions, and Arthur Nusbaum expressed concern over a shortage of certified welders who had passed the city's structural-welding test. That would not be a problem, the representatives from the Department of Buildings replied; one of the area's most trusted steel inspectors, Neil Moreton, would have the power to test and immediately certify any welder that Citicorp's repair project required. Nusbaum recalls, "Once they said that, I knew we were O.K., because there were steamfitter welders all over the place who could do a fantastic job."Before the city officials left, they commended LeMessurier for his courage and candor, and expressed a desire to be kept informed as the repair work progressed. Given the urgency of the situation, that was all they could reasonably do. "It wasn't a case of 'We caught you, you skunk,'" Nusbaum says. "It started with a guy who stood up and said, 'I got a problem, I made the problem, let's fix the problem.' If you're gonna kill a guy like LeMessurier, why should anybody ever talk?"

So far, So good....So What? STILL All Cash and Bonds and Still Feelin' Awright! About It ....

WEDNESDAY....

We closed near 1190 onna S&P today. I bailed out 150 points higher about 4 months ago. Resistance is 10 and 70 points higher. Support is 70 and 90 points lower. If that support fails, like onna bad headline plunge, next stop down could be WAY down. And have no doubt; the market is inna headline driven bear market phase. We have to write off Greece. We have to worry about Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland. But see, if I knew enough to worry about Belgium, then I'd really be worried about bad headlines. We're at two and a half bounces. Two and a half.... That rings a bell and it ain't a good one.

So, if the Fed, which doesn’t issue credit and can print money, can be downgraded because it holds AA+ debt, then why and how in hell can the ECB, which holds hundreds of billions of euros of the junk debt of Greece and Ireland and insolvent banks not be downgraded on Monday? And the Bank of Japan? REALLY? What are these guys smoking? Do we now downgrade GNMA? Of course. And the FDIC? What the hell will repos do on market open? The NY Fed says it won’t affect anything. Don’t ask me, I just work here. And how can you rate France AAA? And still give AA or more to Italy when the market is saying they are getting close to junk?

It's all fun and games until someone gets hurt. -- Mom

Horrible lookin' returns and chartz. I was all cash in mid May and I'm all bonds now.

I fear almost nothing, but I have a lot of respect for things that are dangerous. When handling guns, riding motorcycles fast, doing heavy rigging way up inna steel, or investing my life savings, fear has no place. Fear eats away at rationality and decision making and the ability to act. Respect the hazards and own the responsibility to do the right thing at the right time because it needs to be done, not because you are afraid.

Monday Eve

I Have This List...

...it's of stocks that I've looked at/wanted to track/ held/was gonna get around to eventually/ added and forgot about. I called up the list and today's action this eve to scope out how the day was.

DAMN!!! God help anyone still in the market.....

There's a bottom here someplace. It may be a way's away, it may be only an interim bottom and it may be good for only a short bounce. But stocks can only go to zero and we've come a long way in a short time. So there is the immediate short term relief of the cessation of falling in the near future. Unfortunately coincident to this is the sensation of augering into the ground. Then is the time to do something. That's why I went first to cash and then to bonds

WED EVE...

We crashed Monday, Had an intense rally in the last hour of Tuesday, Crashed again Wednesday, And I put 15% of my all cash position back to work in 4 Funds this afternoon. it's an incremental buy at a price a damn site cheaper than back in May when I cleared outa stocks. That's how it is done...

I'll buy more mutual funds inna 401, but I mostly like to buy charts that go from lower left to upper right ala Dennis Gartman.

THURS.....

Threw few more dollars at the 401a. I'm up to 25% stocks inna 401. I'm a little nervous about today's buy and I'm ready to stop there or retrench back into bonds/cash depending. The markets are going crazy; Lookit the action for the last four days vs any one day during a non crash day. INSANE.

But if we all don't end up living in lean to's and driving around in Road Warrior vehicles, I'll look back at today's buy as a smart move. I'm just concerned that future buy ins may be a lot smarter. Or may be not....

Stay Tooned.....

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."-- Woody Allen

Luckily, We Got Congress To Choose our Path For Us As Our Elected Representatives. I'm So Impressed I Could Just Shit.

I could draw lines and write stuff and do circles and arrows and numbers and levels and Bollinger Bands and andandand. But, look at the the chart and note the topping, the red bars becoming pre dominant and taller since June, the candlesticks bouncing off the 200 day ma again and the 200 day ma approaching the 50 day ma, the 50 day starting to roll over, declining tops, and the whole ragged last five months. It sez," Caution is the better part of valor....

Kickin' Ass in my trading account. I can go where the action is. And it is up high and in the corners. Cash and bonds inna 401a. The markets are squirrely, the economy is crashing after too long on stiimulus, and none on the horizon, and you make money when the risk/reward works for you. That ain't everyplace and all the time.

Waiting for clarity....

Wed Eve....

Clarity.... Seems clear to me....

Stay Tooned....

I Listened To An Ex Senator Alan Simpson Interview On The Bi Partisan Deficit Report....Horrifying...I Think It Is Fixable. I'm Not Sure It Will Be....

Friday, July 15, 2011, 11:45 PM

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the “wet streets cause rain” stories. Paper’s full of them. In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.” — Michael Crichton

Moving over to some funds to bonds. The stock market has been big time decoupled from main street for a coupla years. Profits and prices have been up but I'm feelin' that the risk is to the down side, secularly, seasonally and cyclically. my aggressiveness is sated by what I'm doin' in my trading account and IRA's. I'm too old not to have come to appreciate discretion as the better part of valor when I suspect I may end up pissing into the wind. Let things clarify.....

MONDAY EVE...

Bonds and cash....'Nuff Said.

TUES EVEThe S&P closed below the 50 Day MA. Now let's see if it is confirmed....

OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!!! Smokin' week inna market. And I was All Cash. It stings, but it still may have been the responsible thing to do. Stay tooned and I'll explain why.....

I got out at 1 because the economy sucked, the Fed was through stuffing the bank vaults with cash, ya can't buy houses if yer unemployed, the banks make safer money buying treasuries than loaning money for interest, Greeks were getting their Visa card limits raised so as to borrow to make the monthly, China inflation and GDP was running into a slowing world economy, and the first glimpse of the next recession is occurring with 9% to 17% unemployment today ,depending on what yer smokin'.

It looked as expected at 2 & 3 & 4.

At 5, with everyone leaning the same way after 4 down weeks, the paint the tape game started early because of the end the quarter. Once the buyers lit up the tape, the scramble to get outa shorts and inta longs got frantic. the only red that week was end of the days locking in profits and after lunch onna 30th locking in profits.

So.... Tuesday. A lotta guys show up having missed the run up and waiting on earnings inna week or two. Do they (I) buy at the highs? Or do they say, "Aw RIGHT!!! A chance to unload at the prices I missed last month ...SELL EVERYTHING!! Is the stock market saying "Everything is better, we washed out the timid and it's UP, UP, AN' AWAY. Or is it saying " We brutalized the cautious, now let's break the foolhardy.

See, I just don't see how much has changed inna last month. Greece is patched over, but the German public is less and less sure about floatin' the rest of the EZ. The economy? Wall Street vs Main St? A recession on the horizon? QE3? Do i see the way home?

Dunno. But discipline trumps conviction. Price is truth and in my IRAs and trading account, I'm long and undiversified and even margined in the trading account. I can do what I wanna, when I wanna, All in long to all out in the click of an iphone. Last week was good But that is not the way it is with my 401a. There are rules and restrictions on what, when, and how often. I gotta move deliberately, like moving a building down the street, not a car.

This is the other side of a Bull Market, when I'll go 100% long the most aggressive funds and ride undiversified through the dips and hiccups. The down days or weeks 'll be nothing another few days or weeks of up won't fix.

This is a Secular Bear Market where the news is bad, sell offs are relentless and the updrafts are absolutely vicious. I gotta deal with missing the ups as the price of missing the downs. I'm in cash now and I expect to be in cash until I see a reason not to be...

The blast back to recent highs left a lot of investors on the outside lookin' in. That is a ready made cabal of dip buyers. The market can work off the overbought condition by going down and letting the left out in all at once at a lower price, or it can chop around and let the left out in a few at a time, correcting in time instead of price.

Or it can run head on into a a horrible jobs report or a Italy/Spain EU conflagration and undo the last week's launch upward all a once and continue down through the 200 day moving average.

Standing by in cash. I missed 80 points in 5 days, I ain't gonna chase it if I don't have any idea where it is going.... The market is going to be open tomorrow, next week, next month and next year too. I'm going to wait to commit until I have some clarity...

People only accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity when a crisis is upon them.-- Jean Monnet

Back Inna Day, KSAN was tryin' to stay afloat post Hippie Apocalypse and had tapped the Bay Area music community for an all live music weekend. One of the Fillmore Auditorium regular bands canceled out and Ronnie Montrose, who was putting a band together at the time, filled in on a coupla hours notice. He put on what would be his Montrose Stadium Rock program of the future in a studio using practice amps and borrowed instruments. This was in the pre-box-of-effects, Marshall-in-your-pocket-era. Sounded kinda like this...

Over the weekend, decisions will be made that will determine whether the world will relive the 2007-08 crash. The odds are not that bad short term. They are horrible long term and the downside outcome is nasty..... Stay tooned.

You start with everybody in cash or short. Then someone goes, "Hey, Waidaminute!! Who's left to sell and/or go to cash? What if the only thing left to do is buy?" With everybody leaning the same way, it doesn't take much to ignite a stampede the other way. It looks like a ferocious short covering and chasing runaway stocks rally.

The fundamentals suck. If the market confirms the launch, I will figure out what to do then. Right now, it feels too much like a bear trap....

Still all cash....

Stay Tooned.....

After The Banks In Ireland And Finland Blew Themselves Up Through Too much Leverage And Speculation, The Governments Transferred The Losses To The Citizens. Then The Citizens Voted Themselves A New Government. Stay Tooned....

Stay Tooned

"When the plane is going down and the oxygen masks have dropped and parts of the plane are peeling off as you plummet toward the earth, that’s not the time to pull out the little card in the seat in front of you and say, ‘Gee, where are the emergency exits?' Everybody should have an emergency plan. The time to make these decisions is not when people are running around with their hair on fire."--Barry Ritholtz

It's Not That We're Down 5%, We're Up A Whole Bunch Over The Last Two Years.It's That Sentiment Has Changed, The Season Is Against Us, And The Leaders And Tells Are Undercutting Our Confidence.

Stay tooned....

Blogs; A Total Waste of Time? A Source Of Dangerous Mis Information?, Self Centered Self Gratification? A Dangerous Crowding Out Of Real Content? The Descent Of Erudite Intellectual Activity Into the Cacophony Of The Uneducated Masses? The Dilution Of Expertise And Knowledge?..... Pretty Much.

Saturday, May 28, 2011, 02:09 PM

Page after page of professional economic journals are filled with mathematical formulas leading the reader from sets of more or less plausible but entirely arbitrary assumptions to precisely stated but irrelevant theoretical conclusions. —Wassily Leontief

Friday was last day of the month and window dressing on light pre-holiday volume. Tuesday will be 401/IRA inflows and is usually up. It'll be a tell. I do some individual stock trading in a coupla IRA's and I look behind the curtain of the major indexes. I'm Ivory Soap (99-44/100's ) pure Stable Value Fund inna 401a. I figure to spend the weekend re-fettlin' the scooters for commute and Sunday Ride and prolly the track use this Summer/Fall. Less risk there than buy and hold inna 401a through the Summer.

THE REVOLUTION WILL NOT BE TELEVISED

MEMORIAL DAY

Wed 6/1...

I feel strongly about it both ways... Stable Value Fund is a great place to be when the market craters. But I'd much rather everyone had a job and a house and I could just go 100% in the most aggressive fundz. But ya play the cards yer dealt.....

I'm one day from being out of the markets. What I'm doing is very very specific to my circumstances, personality, and history. Prolly time to write about it since ya can't make sense outta the action without a program.

Tuesday Eve...

A "V" Shaped bounce looks less likely. I'm positioned for some serious down side. I may not get it. This might just be a brief pause while some temporary issues or seasonality are worked out. Or it could be the start of a significant down draft ending 10% to 25% down with a huge wash out amid chaos and despair...

As High Frequency Economics says today: “Underlying problems of over-borrowed nations are not fixed by lending them more money.”

Stay Tooned...

What Happens To The Party (The Markets) When The Fed Takes Away The Punch Bowl (Zero Interest Rate Policy [ZIRP] )?

Saturday, May 14, 2011, 01:51 PM

Just remember one thing: there are no good stocks. They all suck. Even those that are making you money are going to turn on you sooner or later. The only stock you should say anything good about is the one you no longer own that made you money.--Reverend Shark

Pretty radical change in posture over the last month:

I'm down from 90% stocks just weeks ago to 33% this weekend, to anywhere from 20% to 0% anytime this week depending on how urgent I feel the need to get ultra defensive is....

It's a risk/reward thing, see? I been way long for a while, since 9/10. I made some serious coin last year. But there's limits. Making money was easy between late '04 and late 2008. I went 100% stocks, checked everything every Saturday morning and every so often trimmed my allocation toward the hot fundz. I was onna sidelines in cash during the 08/09 WHOOSH down. I read enough to make me certain that it was all risk and no reward so I cashed outa stocks into the GIC. I made money by not losing money. I mean I actually made money in 08. Coupla hundred simoleans beats a gaping smokin' pit inna 401a. I was late rejoining the party in the spring of 09. I let a lot of gains go bye bye because caution had served me so well previously. I didn't really understand the new religion of free money from the FED until 9/10. But there ain't no true believer like a recent convert so I got wit it. All stocks alla time.

That was then an' this is now. I'm gonna play onna other side of the street for a while. Yeah, I'm really aggressive when it comes to reachin' out for gains. It's what I do. But I balance that by being really aggressive protecting gains. I risk serious losses by being all the way long when I think the markets are goin' up. If the market turns against me, I can get roughed up onna way out. The rapid trading restrictions means there is a price to bailing out inna hurry. Ya gotta be smart aggressive; listen for the sirens and move closer to the door.

The other side of that is that caution and getting out early can leave you looking in the windows at the party. Coupla three four days of upward whoosh watched through the windows can sting hard enough to make yer eyes water. But, Oh Well! you never go broke realizing gains and booking profits. And a few dollars left onna table can be thought of as insurance premiums or the cost of admission. I can live with that. What's made me cautious over the last six weeks is starting to wear on me. Time for some fresh air and a rest. Nothing clears the head and resets the game like the view from the sidelines.

There is nothing that will benefit your portfolio more than avoiding losses when the market is acting poorly. If you can keep from incurring losses in your portfolio as the market falls, you avoid the very unproductive task of recouping losses once the market is more favorable. James “Reverend Shark” DePorre

I'm a trend and momentum investor. I see damn little momentum and the trend looks to be rolling over. If I can pick up a majority of the up and miss out on summa da down, I figure that's pretty copacetic. Bull markets are a much easier environment to invest in and I'd rather just go long and hang on. But that's a recipe for disaster during certain times.... like this one.. .

WED EVE

Up day inna market and I'm pretty much a day or two from an all cash position (Met Life Stable Value). I'll write more as to how and why this weekend. For now, I'm banking gains from the first four months of the year, stepping back from risks I identify in the market technicals, acknowledging concerns identified by what I consider to be reliable and informed sources, and taking a breather. Should we get yet another "V" shaped bounce, I'm in a position to go long as fast as I wanna without triggering rapid trading restrictions penalties... If we go down big time, an all cash is a good thing indeed...

A coupla moves still to go, done by next Monday, and then I wait. A day, A week, A month, Or three.

We got higher highs and higher lows. We got a failed support line and a working support line. We got a dead cat bounce on lower volume after four days down from a multi year high. Beneath the indexes we have a WHOOSH down in commodities. We have leading stocks and sectors looking queasy. We got extended stocks without support after serious run ups. We have hot money bailing out of the trade dejour. We have risk vs reward, fear vs greed, and risk management vs asset allocation.

I've pulled back some serious coin. I'm more concerned about the return OF capital than the return ON capital.

If we launch higher Monday and don't look back, I've still got money inna game. just not as much as I like. I can fix that.

If Friday was short covering and bargain hunters seeing bargains compared to a week ago, we might continue/resume falling and this might be the non "V" shaped bounce/correction I've kinda been expecting. In that case, I still have too much money inna game.I can fix that too.

Stay tooned...

IF YOU ARE GOING TO FIGHT TO SAVE THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS, YOUR FIRST OBLIGATION IS TO SAVE YOURSELF. WE NEED NUMBERS ON OUR SIDE TO BALANCE THE MONEY ON THE OTHER SIDE. START BY MAKING YOUR 401A WORK FOR YOU. YOU FIGHT BEST FROM A FIRM FOOTING ON A SOLID FOUNDATION. HERE'S WHAT I'M DOING...

Saturday, April 30, 2011, 01:33 PM

I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position.-- Mark Twain

I went deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon April 29th...

“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find one despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”

-- Ed Yardini

Clickit!!!!

Cup And Handle. Three "V" Shaped Recoveries. One Failed Support Line And One Working Support Line. Two Confirmed Consolidations. These Are Bullish Patterns. The Market Is Soaring, And For For Exactly The Wrong Reason. But They Don't Put An Asterisk On Gains, Take Them Back, Or Discount Them... A Dollar Gained Is A Retirement Dollar For Me And My Family Whether I Hated The Economic Conditions That Made It For Me Or Not. So I'm Way Long And Not Liking Why. I'm Tagging Along With What Is Making The Rich Richer. I Feel Strongly About It Both Ways.... But I Can Use The Money.

Stay Tooned......

Thank God I Grew Up When Honesty Demanded That You Call Them Sugar Pops And Sugar Smacks And Sugar Frosted Flakes. And It Was OK That Quakers Made Puffed Rice And Puffed Wheat For Kids That Were Shot From Guns ....

Friday, April 22, 2011, 03:27 PM

The more you know, the harder it is to take decisive action. Once you become informed, you start seeing complexities and shades of gray. You realize that nothing is as clear and simple as it first appears. Ultimately, knowledge is paralyzing. Being a man of action, I can’t afford to take that risk.– Calvin

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday (4/20) Action looked good. I changed my mind about risk and added to my stock position at the end of the day.....

Here's where I stood Thurs AM allocationwise.... I picked up a few bucks onna day and I'm nicely set up for Monday....If the bottom doesn't fall out.

I may go deeper into stocks Monday. Here's why.

My risk management and capital preservation has cost me money every time I've gotten anxious and lightened up since the bottom in 2009. I've gotten back in some distance behind the "close yer eyes and hang on" crowd, but.... It ain't a sin to be wrong, everybody makes mistakes. It IS a sin to stay wrong. So I don't. Of course, my caution allowed me to actually make money in my 401a in 2008 when everybody else was bleeding from the eyeballs. One day it'll save my donkey again. I just gotta keep fear matched against greed an' get the balance right.....

I'm going deeper into stocks on Friday afternoon.

“The Fed is still your friend if you are invested in cyclical stocks , commodities, and foreign currencies. If you eat food and run your car on gasoline, the Fed will continue to hurt you. If you are looking for a job, you may be wondering why it is still so hard to find ond despite all the money the Fed has spent so far on QE2.0. If you are retired and living on interest from your CDs, then you are getting really squeezed between rising food and fuel prices and the Fed’s zero interest rate policy. In other words, the Fed seems to be doing everything to widen the gap between the Haves and Have Nots than to lower unemployment and boost economic growth, which remains “moderate” according to yesterday’s FOMC statement.”

-- Ed Yardini

Cup And Handle. Bullish Pattern. The Market Is Soaring For Exactly The Wrong Reason. But They Don't Put Asterisk On Gains. A Dollar Gained Is A Retirement Dollar For Me And My Family Whether I Hated The Economic Conditions That Made It For Me Or Not. So I'm Way Long And Not Liking It.

Stay tooned.....

“Middle-class America experienced a lost decade in their retirement accounts, whereas executives enjoyed record compensation packages through the subterfuge of stock option programs. There has been a massive wealth transfer from middle-class America’s retirement accounts to the bank accounts of the privileged few. The social consequences of this wealth transfer bear scrutiny.”

The first couple of days of earnings releases gave us some so so reports that the markets did not like. Tuesday we got some better ones. We will see what the market sez Wed...

I reduced my exposure markedly as per the table above; 75%/25% money to stocks. It is a conservative allocation but not as defensive as I would be if not for rapid trading restrictions. We will see what tomorrow may bring....

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" --John Maynard Keynes

Wednesday Action looked good. I changed my mind about risk and added to my stock position at the end of the day.....

Stay tooned...

Back To The 50's. Inna 50's There Was Open Air Nuclear Tests Inna Pacific, Strontium 90 Inna Food And Milk. Now It's 2011 And There Are Missing Reactor Cores And Explosion Dispersed Spent Cores And Iodine 131 And Cesium Isotopes Inna Food. Forward To The Past...

Saturday, April 9, 2011, 02:17 PM

"I have opinions of my own -- strong opinions -- but I don't always agree with them."--George H. W. Bush

Speakin' O' The Past...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrABhokO ... re=relatedBrings me back to the night @ de 'mo when I watched pretty much the same line up do the two mandatory hour long sets that everyone did at the 'mo. I was about 30 foot from the stage leanin' into the sound...

Way Long Stocks. Eighty six percent plus. The charts are way extended and this is almost WFO into earnings. But I'm going into Monday with the shutdown postponed, earnings announcements about to start, the world's troubles rolled down to a simmer from a full boil and maybe I'll get a bounce to lighten up into.... Or not.

Stay Tooned...

Remember Back To "The End Of History"? Seems Kinda Silly In Retrospect. Poor Choices And Bad Judgement Writing History In Japan And Nothing Lasts Forever Anymore Going Down In MENA. Historic, Really....

Saturday, April 2, 2011, 03:13 PM

Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present. -- Marcus Aurelius

Two third stocks and one third cash 'cuz the end of the run is not yet clear. But it is closer now than it was then. So I'm not WFO. I used to run WFO in 5th gear at Sears Point outa Ten and straight at a concrete wall in Eleven because that was how it was done. I got away with it. Not everybody did. Kinda feels that way now.

"Been Down So Long, It Looks Like Up To Me" That's How You Get Talking Heads Pontificating About A Healed Economy And Business Looking Up. Pay No Attention To What Is Behind The Screen......

Saturday, March 26, 2011, 03:31 PM

"The effect of mobiles, computers, satellites—there is a generation coming that is outside the traditional controls. Normally, generations re-create themselves. But something else is happening."-- Mohamed Haykal

There are things I can't do, like serious fundamental analysis of thousands of companies books and in depth analysis of governmental politics and sociopolitical movements on resource allocation and technological and sociopolitical forces versus the political imperatives in the MENA area. I don't have access to the raw data and I'm too busy laying out and bending high purity gas lines. But I can get price vs time on a near instantaneous basis and there is little data available that is more cogent, accurate or determinant. And technical levels left behind mean it's modified risk on with an eye toward how the tenor of the market has changed.

Never mind what makes sense. The market never talks to you more directly than it does with price. Glow inna dark sea food onna West Coast, the Korean war Redux, the risk of Iran and Hamas in Lebanon, the forced retirement of way too many people way too young, major midwest cities drying up and blowing away, very high oil prices, Euro debt issues, etc, if prices go up through resistance and hold, I gotta be thinking, Buy. So I started to scale in last week.