Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Question Suggestions

The winners of our vote on where to poll this weekend were Iowa and Minnesota.

The Iowa poll obviously will be taken up mostly with questions about the Republican primary. Beyond the horse race stuff and favorabilities are there any questions you think we should ask of GOP primary voters that might help illuminate who they're leaning toward and why?

We'll also obviously do general election match ups for President and if you have any other Iowa question ideas send those our way as well.

In Minnesota who would you like to see us test against Amy Klobuchar? Obviously we will take a look at Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann for the general election for President as well as the primary. Any other question ideas for Minnesota?

Then ask a series of negative information-granting questions for each candidate. Ex:"Are you aware that Mitt Romney has supported a health care mandate at the state level?""Are you aware that Newt Gingrich is thrice divorced?""Are you aware that John Huntsman praised Obama's ability in a letter to the president?""Are you aware that Tim Pawlenty pardoned a child molester to let him open a daycare center, and that man is now charged with molesting his daughter more than 250 times?" (see here)

Etc.

And then after all those questions, ask a primary horse race question again.

The idea is that all of these are likely to be publicized during the campaign. Romneycare is much trumpeted already, for instance. The idea is to see how damaging these would truly be for their campaign (although ~60-70% say they wouldn't vote for a candidate that supported a mandate, that number will likely go down when they learn about Romney, as their base rallies around the flag.)

MINNESOTA-Gay marriage amendment.-Generic State House/Senate: DFL or Republican-Remember to use the term "DFL" in your poll, so you don't sound like some outside poller from North Carolina! ;-)

IOWA:-Branstad vs Culver rematch: Would Iowa want a re-do too? (I wonder, with a split Dem/House, if he's not protected, as he campaigned as a moderate)-Gay marriage or recall the rest of the judges or something along those lines.

The marriage amendment has taken a lot of oxygen in Minnesota and you should certainly ask about it, but you can do more...Both houses of the state legislature flipped dramatically last November. It would be good to look for buyers' remorse, if there is any: can either house be flipped back?MN Republicans before the Pawlenty era were very moderate compared to the national party (to the left of Olympia Snowe): that standpoint's now represented by elderly ex-office holders such as former governor Arne Carlson, who has been in the news supporting Dems again (he endorsed Obama). What do people think of Carlson now? (Do voters under 40 even recognize his name?)

"Do you support or oppose reforming Medicare so that seniors receive a voucher to purchase health insurance on the private market instead of being covered by the federal government?"

"Would you vote for a candidate for president who supported a health insurance mandate at the state level, or not?" (Romney)

"Would you vote for a candidate for president who has been divorced, or not?" (Gingrich)

"Would you vote for a candidate for president who supported civil unions for gay and lesbian couples at the state level, or not?" (Huntsman)

"Would you vote for a candidate for president who is a Mormon, or not?" (Huntsman and Romney)

"Would you vote for a candidate for president who worked in President Obama's administration, or not?" (Huntsman)

"Do you think it is more important for Republicans to nominate a candidate who can beat President Obama or a candidate who is right on the issues?"

"Do you think it is more important for Republicans to nominate a candidate who has a lot of experience in government or a candidate who has a lot of experience in the private sector?"

"If you had a choice between a candidate who you really like personally but who could not beat President Obama and a candidate who you do not like as much but who can beat President Obama, which candidate would you caucus for?" (might speak to Palin's high favs but lower support)

I know that it a lot of candidates, but the GOP seemed to think it could make a play for MN in 2008 and lost it by -10.34%, which is fairly logical as this state has gone 9 times in a row for the democratic candidate, 12 times out of 13 since 1960 and 17 times out of 20 since 1932. Nixon won this state in his massive 1972 landslide with only +5.51%. You have to go back almost 60 years in history, to 1952, to see a GOP lansdlide in liberal MN.

That being said, Obama's landslide in MN was LESS than his near historic landslide in neighboring WI, which surprised by very much.

So, it would be good to see the variance in Obama nailing these 7 candidates rear-ends to the wall.

Battleground state, my a**! HA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also, the approval rating of two MN state senators, the ones who spoke out against the anti-gay marriage ballot, would be interesting to see.

"Okay, let's review. To make everything legal, we need 20 women and 23 men. Each woman will marry one man, and then 18 of the women will 0.15-marry one of the three extra men, then the last two will 0.10-marry one of the three extra men each and 0.05-marry the last guy."

"That's too complicated! Can't we just get 100 women and 115 men, and then all the women marry 1/115th of each man?"

"No, wait, we're forgetting about polygamy. We need 20 women and 40 men. Each woman marries one man, and 0.15-marries another man."

"... The flagon with the dragon has the pellet with the poison, and the chalice from the palace has the brew which is true?"

I’d like to see some two-way tests for the GOP caucus: e.g. Romney versus Palin, Romney vs. Pawlenty, Romney vs. Gingrich, Romney vs. Paul. Is there really a not-Romney majority that could be consolidated by one of the actual or likely not-Romney contenders, and who would be able to bring it together? P.S. I’d like to see similar tests for some of the other early primary/caucus states when you get back to them, too.

Frankly, there's nothing in the midwest that could interest me more than a Minnesota legislature generic ballot.

The traditionally rather liberal Democrats there (the DFL) have the governorship for the first time in twenty years, and I for one am more than eager to see whether the DFL has chance of taking the legislature in 2012, after the hard shift to the right in 2010 legislative election.

Perhaps you could ask about favorability of the Republican, Independence, and DFL parties. And of course, it will be interesting to see whether there is buyer's remorse for Dayton.

In Iowa, another divided government, I'd be just as curious whether there is buyer's remorse for Branstad. Both are important questions since I think only united Rupublican governments have been polled for buyer's remorse so far, save for NC.

Minnesota is in the middle of a budget stalemate with a $5B deficit. Governor Dayton (D) wants a tax increase on the wealthiest 2% mixed in with some spending cuts, GOP majorities in the legislature prefer a cuts-only approach. The government will shut down July 1 of there is no agreement. Ask if people want legislators to compromise or want them to stay where they are and let the government shut down.

Might be interesting to poll Jesse Ventura as an indie candidate for president. I believe he talked about it before a few times. I'd be curious to see whether he pulls more from Republicans or Democrats.

Gay marriage is an obvious subject in both MN and IA. However, I suggest the following approaches, which would put PPP head and shoulders above others who have polled on this issue:

- Ask both a 2-option and a 3-option question. One for whether there is support/opposition for same-sex marriage and the other asking respondents to choose b/t the 3 options of SSM, civil unions, or nothing.

- With respect to the 3-option question above, ask the respondents who selected the "civil unions" option how they would vote if only given SSM or nothing as options.

- Ask a further question, in addition to the above, that uses just the text of the MN amendment. IA would use the same text if it ever proposes such an amendment, so ask the same question in IA.

- Ask what the basis is for opposition to SSM. If necessary, have them pick from a list of justifications usually proffered by the anti-SSM side (injury to straight marriages/impact on public schools, etc).

- Ask about the salience of the SSM issue for voters

- Ask whether voters plan to vote Dem or Rep in races for the state House and state Senate

In IA only, ask:

- How voters plan to vote on the retention of one IA Supreme Court justice, which will be on the ballot in 2012.

- Inform the respondents that this justice was one of 7 who ruled on SSM in 2009. Now ask the question about the retention vote.

- Ask whether SSM has had a positive impact, negative impact or no impact on the respondent personally