Analysis of the projects described in chapter 3 permits the
discussion of a number of problems which throw some light on
issues of development in general on the one hand, and on specific
aspects of arid land management on the other. There is certainly
no way always to differentiate clearly between these areas, and
the author is not sure that it would always be sensible to do so.
Development of arid areas is a complex task which combines
elements of social and capital investment. training and research,
organization and motivation of the people involved; it calls for
much central as well as decentralized planning and
implementation. It demands a national framework allowing rural
development a certain priority and at the same time requires the
observation of environmental restrictions to save and restore the
very natural resources the people depend on. To isolate factors
which are purely "arid land issues" may have some
theoretical value but will not be very helpful in designing and
implementing projects of the types described above. The overall
issue may rather be stated as follows: projects in arid and
semi-arid regions should be organized with the goal of economic
viability and social acceptance of the people involved under the
restriction that permanence of cultivation is possible and
provided for.

As a first step towards the systematic development of a
training programme in arid land management (section 5.2) and out
of the experience of the analyzed projects. the following major
problem areas can be identified:
-permanence of cultivation,
-organizational shortcomings,
-social acceptance, and
-economic viability.

Out of these four problem areas only one, permanence of
cultivation. seems to be a pure arid land question, while the
remaining three are apparent also in many non-arid land projects.
On the other side. experience shows clearly that there is no way
of solving the question of the permanent use of arid land
resources without having projects that are not plagued by
organizational problems (administrative, infrastructural
logistic. staff quality, etc.) and economic issues (low yields,
high costs great risks, budgetary restrictions, marketing
problems, price policy, etc.). These problems and issues are part
of the arid land situation as well as of the general state of
development of the country. The possession of large areas of arid
land makes development certainly more difficult than it is in
regions with a more temperate climate. But areas with more
rainfall have other problems in a number of fields which make the
development process as difficult as in arid areas. This can be
observed if one compares northern and southern Sudan and their
states of development.

The remaining social acceptance problem of many projects will
be discussed later in more detail. but in connection with the
discussion above it seems appropriate to point to one specific
aspect. People in arid land regions are mainly nomads and their
way of life is determined by the needs and the rewards of their
livestock economy. Project experience shows that social
acceptance is no particular problem if the function of the
nomadic livestock system is secured. If not, the people may
disappear with their animals into the vast hinterland. This could
be called a specific issue of the arid land discussion which, of
course. is not observed with settled cultivators in more
temperate zones. The positive side of such a signal of
nonacceptance of a development project by nomadic people may lie
in the fact that mistakes or deficiencies in project design
become apparent very soon after a project starts. This opens the
door for remedies very early during the project's lifespan.
Projects in non-arid areas may go on for long periods with the
illusion that they are accepted by the people because the
residents are still around. but in reality they don't care at all
and the project collapses after the experts leave.

4.1.1 Permanence of Cultivation

All the project reports analyzed and personal observations
leave many doubts that the permanence of cultivation of rain-fed
projects in the Sudan has been given the attention this issue
needs from an environmental and economic point of view.
Historical experience in most countries of the world gives
evidence that the use of arid land in modern times is mainly an
issue of profit expectations for individuals and the society, not
of protection of the soil to keep it fertile for more than one
generation. For the purpose of this study. permanence of
cultivation may be defined as participants having 25 or more
years perspective towards their use of the land they start
cultivating as a development project. Will it be possible to
create "farmers" out of cultivators who are presently
operating the schemes ? Doubts are expressed in three ways:
1 ) Does the environment allow continuous cropping ?
2) Does the administrative performance guarantee the continuous
cropping ?
3) Are the local people motivated to continue efforts to secure
continuous cropping ?

Most data show high rates of fluctuations of yields due to a
number of reasons. The major reason has certainly been the
irregularity of rainfall in the project areas. This points to the
fact that the economic risk of such projects will always be high,
and only people who are able to carry this risk should be
encouraged to be engaged in mechanized rain-fed schemes. But
besides rainfall. the tendency of most projects to show
decreasing yields after initial high returns to their investment
points to the serious impact mechanized farming may have on the
environment. The depletion of soils has apparently started
immediately after the first crop has been harvested.
Specification of fallow in the crop rotation proved to be a major
difficulty. None of the project reports was able to give an
answer to questions about permanence in the affirmative only. In
some instances. the problem may be reduced by the introduction of
more rigorous crop rotation, the application of fertilizer, the
better observation of soilconserving techniques, etc. In other
instances. the cultivation of the project area may have to be
confined to certain years only. whenever favourable weather
conditions allow cultivation without an irreversible threat to
the environment. But in general. the question about the
permanence of cultivation cannot be answered without more
research based upon reliable long term rainfall data and soil
fertility studies. Some project areas have apparently been
selected very haphazardly, without proper surveys at all in this
respect. Studies on motivation and participation of the local
population were usually also not done.

All reports on irrigated projects show less doubt that the
soils can be cultivated permanently as long as water remains
available and minimum standards of soil preparation, crop
rotation, and fertilization are observed. The major production
problems seem to be the lack of knowledge about the optimum
combination of crops. the question of soil salinization, the need
for drainage. the danger of not mastering the weed problem, etc.
In addition. human and administrative problems are dominant due
to the lack of social research into the most suitable system of
participation of the local population. and due to the low
standards of organizational performance at various levels of the
central and regional institutions. as well as in the projects
themselves.

4.1.2 Organizational Shortcomings

The problems of organization emerged in all types of projects,
which was certainly not unexpected. Some were due simply to the
remoteness of the projects, which made it difficult to provide
the necessary services and inputs at reasonable costs and on
time. The question to be asked is whether or not certain projects
should have been started at all if the infrastructure for
transport. services, processing, etc. was simply not there to
justify the beginning. The factual knowledge about such links
must be improved through training devices for those people who
make decisions about project implementation. The common problems
that inputs were always late or not available at all. that
timeliness of land preparation and seeding was seldom observed,
and that crops could not be harvested point to major shortcomings
of planning and implementing procedures. This needs serious
attention in future arid land management programmes. People must
be trained in methods to identify bottlenecks early enough to
allow impacts of their removal during the project's life-span
without being bound to slow administrative structures. The
question of the most suitable project organization for all
projects cannot be answered from the available data. This remains
open to the specific circumstances of each project. Qualification
of the staff is a major bottleneck. If highly qualified staff
cannot be attracted, the targets of a project have to be adjusted
to the real level of performance which can reasonably be expected
from less qualified staff. The inclusion of a certain period of
in-service training for highly motivated young experts, instead
of starting them immediately on their own, without experience,
would have solved some problems.

A number of organizational problems would have been solved by
the better co-ordination of various agencies of the governmental
machinery. The lack of awareness that different ministries and
their regional representatives can be co-ordinated through a
common plan of action points to the fact that psychological and
organizational aspects of coordination have never played any
decisive role in project design and implementation. But they
contribute to quite a number of failures. This became very
obvious, e.g., by the need for organizing the necessary labour
force for harvesting cotton in the larger irrigation schemes.
Huge losses occurred due to insufficient recruiting procedures
for hiring labour for seasonal work.

4.1.3 Social Acceptance

All of the projects show various problems of acceptance by the
local population. A wide range of opinions, from the outright
rejection of the whole project up to the very active involvement
of people to support a project structure. was observed. A number
of problems arose from land ownership disputes, especially among
settlers and nomads. The experience from such projects shows
clearly that land rights have to be settled before the project
activities start-or many efforts will be in vain. Not taking into
account the legitimate interest of livestockowning nomads when
starting a settlement scheme in their area has been the reason
for many troubles. In addition, the neglect of local leaders and
their role in tribal conflicts has accounted for a number of
expected and unexpected events which, to say the least, reduced
the speed with which the project moved ahead.

Social acceptance became a particular problem in irrigation
projects where nomads were expected to be available for scheduled
work in their fields at time periods which apparently clashed
with their livestockherding interests. The nomads opposed the
management interest in those projects also where livestock had to
be restricted to certain specified areas despite the fact that
the pasture conditions there were insufficient. The nomads in
each case gave priority to their livestock interests. not to the
project's intention. One further aspect can be cited as reducing
a pasture scheme's success: livestock disease control connected
with tax revenue collection for the government. This causes many
owners to present only parts of their herds, resulting in animal
health problems for the region as a whole.

Social acceptance of development proposals apparently has much
to do with available opportunities for the target groups to
participate effectively in the project planning. Consequently,
quite a number of failures are due to the lack of institutions,
e.g.. cooperatives. to allow the grassroots level a proper
participation. A further point: the involvement of nongoverment
organizations (NGO's) in project implementation has seldom been
tried but it may be the key for more interest of the local
population in an active engagement.

4.1.4 Economic Viability

Most of the economic results of the projects are acceptable
from the private point of view of the farmers, but not of the
public as a whole. All the projects are heavily subsidized by the
government, mostly from external sources, and none would be able
to continue without further support. This is not only true for
investments but, in a number of cases, for the recurrent budgets
also. The calculation of the social profitability of the projects
includes the revaluing of inputs and outputs at shadow prices for
labour, capital, and foreign exchange, which reflect better the
true opportunity costs of these resources than do existing market
prices. But the problem is that many of a project's benefits and
costs are in the form of indirect social or environmental
effects; their contribution to the national income or their
losses cannot be directly assessed.

Depending on the observer's point of view, some projects may
be called economically viable as long as the private
profitability of the projects is secured and the major goal of
creating some productive employment for that region's population
is reached. The economic return for the individual depends mainly
upon the national price policy for the output and the costs of
inputs (including labour). In addition, price fluctuations and
late payment for products may have negative impacts upon a
project's results. Large income variations among a project's
population indicate that more care must be taken to select
settlers who have a homogeneous level of training and motivation
suitable to reach the project's goals.

The projects' internal economic problems arose mainly from
budgetary constraints, the high costs of maintenance and fuel,
the low standard of infrastructure with resulting heavy expenses
for transport and communication, as well as the lack of
management flexibility. But the major cause for concern lies in
the fact that physical yields are not sufficient to justify the
existing cost structure and cost volumes. Further efforts to
raise private and social profitability must at first be directed
towards yield-increasing and fertility-stabilizing activities. In
addition, the creation of other job opportunties outside the
projects may help to ease some of the economic problems observed
that were due to seasonal unemployment.

One particular economic problem of irrigation schemes has been
pointed out through facts of reduced yields due to lack of water
during the late season. While quite frequently the first crop got
more than enough water during the rainy season, the second crop
suffered because of a low water storage capacity. Sometimes it
did not pay to harvest a second crop at all because of very low
yields.

Credit. another case in point, has a major role in most
project plans, but many reports show low rates of repayment of
loans for various reasons. The management usually tries to
recover credit by subtracting all costs from the return of the
cash crop only. That in turn reduces the interest of farmers to
produce such a crop because the product price has lost its
incentive effect. The system must be changed to allow the
repayment of credit from various sources throughout the year. not
just from the only cash crop produced.

A further concern is the quick transfer of staff. The losses
occurring because staff members are transferred too frequently
cannot be calculated easily but must be of great magnitude,
judging from the low performance of the many projects where staff
problems became apparent. The question of motivation of staff to
serve in rural areas has been widely discussed in the literature
on many occasions. There is certainly need for more understanding
of the situation of project personnel in remote areas. Motivation
goes hand in hand with accomplishment. Therefore project design
in arid land areas has to make sure that realistic goals are set,
and if reached, awards should be given to strengthen the
motivation of staff to continue. The question of personal
interest in the results of a project seems to be one key to
improvement of staff performance and to reduction of frequent
transfers. Solving issues of staff motivation and staff
frustration must be a serious part of the total project approach.

A more interested staff would certainly attack a number of
common administrative problems of economic viability. such as
inadequate accounting, missing supervision of technical
equipment, and little interest in local research and assessment,
with more vigor than usually observed by a casual visitor. They
would also welcome more evaluation of their projects if they knew
that such activities were there to help improve performance and
not for control only.

The distribution of the common problems mentioned is given in
Table 24. The table reveals that permanence of cultivation,
organizational shortcomings. social acceptance, and economic
viability are of different magnitude at the various locations.
But it seems that all projects, despite different designs and
sizes of operations, have some problems which could be tackled
successfully with the same kind of strategy. This is certainly
true for permanence of cultivation and the shortcomings of
organization. Table 24 shows these problems in most projects to
be serious or most serious. The scale of judgment is of course a
very arbitrary, one; subjective observation dominates objective
data, which are not always sufficient to allow a balanced view.
But it is an attempt to summarize the main critical points of the
analysis.

The third common problem, social acceptance. has a mixed
rating. On the one hand, this is due to the special Sudanese
situation that vast areas of land are still available for
cultivation. and projects need not necessarily clash with other
vested interests in those regions. Projects could therefore be
designed to fit expectations and resources of particular groups
of people, such as immigrants, local small holders, tenants,
absentee farmers. hired labour, nomads, etc. Each group has a
unified social background and project organization could be
adjusted to their specific needs. On the other hand, every time
heterogeneous groups had to be included in one project, serious
problems of acceptance were observed. This was especially true
with nomads and their integration into a settlement scheme. This
points to the need of data collection about the local
population's opinions of the project's plans prior to their
implementation. Wherever possible, plans must be prepared with
the people, not for them!

TABLE 24. Range of Common Problems in Eight
Development Projects, Sudan. 1978

The fourth common problem, economic viability. is listed as
serious to light for most projects. No project can be called
economically sound from the private and the public point of view.
The results depend. of course. heavily upon the evaluation
methods used and the definition of social costs. It is equally
difficult to calculate all social benefits to find a balance for
each project. A sufficient economic viability of projects was
reached in those cases where alternative project designs were
developed and a selection process among alternatives could be
implemented. This led to a better organizational structure and
facilitated some flexibility in management decisions to improve
the economic performance.

For further analysis, certain socio-economic indicators are
worked out and presented in Table 25. They show the capacity of
projects for private and public income generation as an indicator
of the combination of local resources and additional external
capital and labour input.

Employment creation has been added to emphasize the fact that
income generation through economic growth'is fine as long as
larger numbers of people will find productive employment. If
economic growth has been accomplished without increasing the
labour input in those regions where labour has been in surplus.
project planning must certainly change to organizational types
where employment creation plays a more decisive role.

Finally, local people's involvement indicates the degree of
"bottom-up" planning and implementation. The
difficulties are well known; the question is whether planners
have always tried hard enough to get a local articulation process
started.

4.2.1 Income Generation

The majority of projects show positive results for private
income generation. This apparent profitability of the listed
projects is demonstrated by the fact that most people plan to
continue cultivation or ranching at the project site. There are
also enough applicants ready to take over from those who may
leave the schemes (for whatever reason). Large windfall gains
during the first years before soil depletion starts are
especially notable.

From the public point of view. the situation looks different.
None of the projects has proved so far that it will be viable
without continuous government support or that all expenses
(including loans) can be repaid out of the generated income. If
the government takes into account the environmental consequences
of the projects' activities in arid land regions, the life-span
of the projects may be shortened considerably. For example, for
the Simsim Area Project, the World Bank originally calculated an
economic rate of return to the investment of 17 per cent. Now,
however. a major downward adjustment has to be made due to the
fact that fallowing is not practiced and soil exhaustion is
cutting the life-expectation of the project in half. This reduces
the economic rate of return for the government to close to zero.

4.2.2 Employment Creation

Employment creation has lately become a major goal of
development policies in many countries. The Sudan is no
exception, as the ILO report Growth. Employment and Equity
pointed out in 1976. The projects observed for the present study
are not necessarily good examples; their employment potential is
limited, except for the irrigated projects. In fact, the
mechanized farming schemes are designed to use very few workers,
because labour is usually not freely available in those remote
areas and cultivation and harvesting are only feasible with
tractors and mechanized equipment. In general. in the arid
regions of Sudan, the number of people looking for jobs is quite
limited. If employment opportunities are offered at irrigation
schemes, they are mainly seasonal, and comfortable facilities for
housing are usually missing. Employment creation is therefore a
very complex problem, and most projects restrict themselves to
the fuller use of underemployed people of the locality, or they
have invited a small number of settlers to come to a scheme
permanently and employ their family labour.

4.2.3 Local People's Involvement

The selected projects show different degrees of participation.
Most projects were planned "topdown" only. People
apparently have to be organized before a project starts to enable
them to articulate their needs and their local experience. A
number of projects' problems have certainly something to do with
this point and future projects should avoid such shortcomings. In
sparsely populated areas, the local population's involvement is
not an easy task, and the administrative staff has to be
motivated to try again and again to reach the project's goals.
But a project can only survive if the public support is secured
and the management is in line with the people's potential and
expectations. Local people's involvement seems to be especially
crucial where changes of the total life-style of the people are
necessary to reach the project goals. It seems to be significant
that a sufficient integration of people into the structure of the
project could be reported very seldom. The interest of most
participants remained passive; full-hearted participation has not
been accomplished. People did not talk about "their"
project and they did not identify themselves with the
management's intentions. They felt as if they were objects of a
"government project," not subjects of a development
process. Some reports point to a tendency of the members to
oppose management decisions rather than to participate in a joint
decisionmaking process. Where savings could be accumulated, they
were usually not invested in the project, but used for activities
or consumption in other sectors of the economy.

In general, the analysis indicates that local people's
involvement has to become a major concern of future planning or
more projects are bound to fail. One concept of ''integrated
rural development"-not planning for the people, but planning
With the people-definitely needs acceptance as a training
component of planners. Training courses for arid land management
should therefore devote equal time to basic knowledge and the
techniques of production on the one hand, and to means of
motivating and organizing the active participation of the
population on the other.