The tide may be running in favor of Democrats in much of the country – though President Bush’s free-fall in the polls appears to have ended – but in Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, tabbed as a Democratic star only four years ago, is in deep trouble.

The likely GOP candidate for governor, businessman Dick DeVos, has surged to a 48-40 lead over Granholm (with 12 percent undecided) in a Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll released a week ago. Other polls have showed them in a dead heat – with none showing Granholm over 50 percent, a danger sign for an incumbent. Perhaps more galling, DeVos leads 48-40 among union households.

Though Bray does not mention it, the collapse of Granholm’s credibility as a governor also has the consequence at the federal level of putting Debbie Stabenow’s Senate seat in the national spotlight. Stabenow’s win six years ago was a weak 49%, and though the Republican primary is in August, once the GOP nominee is selected —either Michael Bouchard or Keith Butler— the DeVos campaign will quickly help him to contender status.