Back Brisbane to maintain strong home form

Following back-to-back defeats, Brisbane picked up an excellent 3-2 home win over the Wanderers and they head into this week in 3rd, just one point behind the leaders Adelaide. Victory, meanwhile, picked up their first win in six games as they won 2-0 at the struggling Mariners to remain in 5th and still very much in contention.

Despite their win against the Wanderers, Brisbane have now conceded at least twice in their last four and have had to pick the ball out of their net 22 times in their last eight games (2.75 gpg), trailing at the break in five of these matches, but their attack has made up for this by scoring at least twice in five of the last six. Their home record this season is an impressive W8-D2-L1 as their only defeat has come against league leaders Adelaide. They have however managed just one clean sheet in their last eight at the Suncorp Stadium and only led at the break in three of these games. Their record when hosting sides between 4th and 7th this term is W3-D1-L0 as they’ve beaten Perth twice and picked up a win and a draw against City.

Victory kept their first clean sheet in six games against the Mariners and also recorded only their third away win of the season as their road record reads W3-D3-L6. They’re certainly not as strong as last season, with skipper Carl Valeri’s absence for the majority of the campaign significantly weakening them while winger Kosta Barbarouses’ current suspension is a further blow. Their wins have come over current bottom-four teams while their record at top-four sides this term is W0-D2-L2 and in fact they failed to win in five attempts at top-four teams during their title winning campaign last term.

Brisbane’s home form this season is strong and the same can definitely not be said about the Champions on the road. We’d have Brisbane closer to evens in this game and so are happy to back them at that price with some cover on the draw.