Malthus is over-rated….

Ages ago, in the shadows of my youth, I clearly recall having spent some of my scarce pocket money on a Boy Scout Handbook. The cover featured a tidily uniformed young lad gallantly helping an elderly woman to cross an urban street. There are two reasons this image stuck with me. First, I wanted to be that young man with his tidy uniform and good intentions. Second, when the time came to begin university, I had some questions about the elderly woman. such as; did she really need assistance and did she want to cross the street at all.

Often in my consulting life in Africa and Asia I reflected on these images while preaching caution about America’s penchant for being a good scout and performing good deeds. By the end of my international career my allegiances were more correctly guided by Clair Booth Luce’s quip, ‘no good deed goes unpunished’. While I don’t regard our intervention in WWI and WWII as good deeds, I am of the opinion that our campaign to stamp out the evils of communism as in Korea and Vietnam, our efforts to curtail a tyrant as in Iraq and our determination to keep the world safe from Islamic terrorism as in Afghanistan were symptomatic of our Boy Scout culture. Those self righteous deeds are still being punished.

Indeed, the American culture is depicted in so many contradictory observations that it is not even clear to us who we are. My generation of Yanks was raised on the western film tradition of letting the bad guy draw first. The guy in the white had always managed to issue some fatal shots and win the heroine’s affection for his efforts. Much later, ‘shoot first and ask questions later’ gained popularity. Many observers of America’s history claim that we should have initiated pre-emptive strikes against some of our enemies, like Hitler, and were most successful when we did, like in the Spanish-American War.

Did we in fact take the poor and destitute of the world and make them into gentlemen and women? Hardly, but we live with that myth as well. Consider, for example, the remark of an American correspondent in Northeast Japan a few days ago who noted an absence of looting during the earthquake/tsunami aftermath. Discipline and honor apply to Japan, but many elements of our population at large can still be depended upon to profit from disaster and the misfortune of others. I just heard a psychic comment on why we were unable to more quickly and effectively respond to hurricane Katrina. The presenter posed this question with his thought that we did not know how. The psychic replied no, we knew how, corruption was the real culprit.

We should have learned by now that implementing an international policing action is more often punished than rewarded. I for one argue that it is neither in our nor Libya’s interest for us, or other world powers, to militarily intervene on behalf of the revolutionaries. It now looks as if we will stay away from the fray, but it is yet early days and besides, America and the world’s attention is intensively focused on Japan. And for good reason.

Japan is the only country to have experienced a nuclear bomb. We did it and now, they are victims of another attack; from a tsunami. When the Emperor spoke a few days ago, I knew their situation was dire. While everyone with even vestiges of humanity are hoping for a successful turn around of the situation, things only become worse. Several countries, including ours, are evacuating their citizens not only from the Fukushima area, but from Japan itself. The government has lost much face, partly because of wanting to paint an optimistic picture, and partly because of misinformation. Meanwhile, everyone who ever questioned the plant’s design or construction is crowing to the tune of ‘I told you so’.

The prophets of doom are having a heyday. They are delighted with the prospect of an accelerating Armageddon. Too many natural disasters are occurring for them to be ignored as coincidence. Sun spot activity is increasing to the point where warnings have been issued about disruptions in electrical and electronic equipment operations. The Telegraph gives Fukushima 48 hours to manifest itself as in or out of control, the US is placing radiation monitors on our West Coast and the UN advises us to expect the first radiation plume within days. It is a wonder we are all still alive with the world appearing to take revenge on the ills of overpopulation and environmental abuse.

I am content to see all of this as works of nature and nothing more. As for overpopulation, I expect Malthusian laws will eventually kick in. In fact, I think they are long overdue. Perhaps Malthus was overrated.