Israel Mulling Sinai Attack?

I have to say your points of solution to the situation are on par with mine. First and foremost, the US and any foreign power needs to stay out of
this one. However, the Suez is a highly trafficked sea lane for international shipping, it is a highly utilized sea route for the US's Atlantic fleet
and the navies of Europe, and it is a place of contention for Israel woes with smuggling of weapons out of Egypt into the hands of Hamas in Gaza.

I like any don't want this situation to sour the economy any further than it already is. Sky rocketing oil prices would be devastating and lead to
political chaos in other regions. At present, I believe the patient approach is warranted and necessary at this juncture. However, if it threatens the
global economy or security for other nations in or around the region then action must be taken. One thought I have been kicking around in my head is
who will take over in Muburak's absence if he indeed resigns?

From what I know so far is that he has no legitimate successor, or a contingency plan for governance in the event of his removal? It seems to me, the
country will descend further into chaos and anarchy? Stability has got to be restored and if Muburak can bow out gracefully I am for it. However, I
don't like how fast things are moving and the notions by El Baradai or the Muslim Brotherhood. They talk of a unity government, but by whom?
Themselves? I am watching it closely, and spot on with in your suggestions!

Unless the canal gets closed for some reason, the US needs to stay out of it. Maybe if the canal does get closed, the price of oil will get high
enough that the damn congress will finally get out of the way of domestic drilling. Then we can get on our way to energy independence.

You're right...everyone's worried about the stock market and oil supplies. If any of the major chokepoints get closed of effected, everyone, including
probably China will be in it. And with Iran still controlling Hormuz...this could get very messy very fast.

While I agree 24 hours is a long time I do feel there is something much deeper behind this, a deep economic distress.. not just in the ME, but
everywhere.. perhaps that might be used as a reason for intervention, but I do feel most leaders in the West will be extremely reluctant to get
involved in this.. I also think any intervention will create a cry of "foul play" which I am highly doubtful any will risk, they'll be pushing for
an internal response, tho, one that still suits and benefits them.

To the OP's topic, I don't see any good reason for the israelis to roll into the Sinai. First, it's a desert like you wouldn't believe. There is
nothing there of note unless you count all the unfinished resorts that went belly up because of the recession. Secondly, that would divert the
attention of the Egypian military and make matters worse, not better. They are needed right now to restore order. The Israelis and the Egyptian
militaries are in daily personal contact with each other over border issues. I know one of the Israeli majors whose job it is to do this. She will
call up the Egyptians in the morning, "Hey. Mohammad. How's the weather on your side today? Sunny? Ha ha. Say, one of our sensors has gone bad at
milepost 27 so we'll have a couple of repair trucks out there today to have a look." That's what they do.

The border on the israeli side is like a seacoast resort area. The border itself from the Egyptian side is remote. There's nothing there, no cities,
very small villages of Bedouins, at best. If you want to go from Egypt to Jordan you must enetr Israel, travel a few feet to the Jordanian border to
go there. You have your bags checked in Egypt where they go through a scanner. You then walk about 100 feet and have your bags checked and scanned
again to enter Israel. You get a double scan. The point is that the Israeli presence at he border is much greater than the Egyptian. They may close
it for political reasons, thus stranding whatever tourists are still left in the Sinai, but there's no physical reason to do so.

But something what really is included in this crisis is situation in Gaza. Maybe both ways... Israel of course downplay this, but great reason for
Egyptian and Muslim Brotherhoods fustration against Israel/US backed government is fueled by situation in Gaza, and unsolved warcrimes done in 2009.

Its our time to start situation analysis and it really looks like ATS starts to be ready for this! Thank you all from your views.

There's no percentage in it for the Israelis. It's a lose/lose for Israel.

And as was suggested, it really doesn't matter if the Muslim brotherhood points Egypt toward Israel. That's been tried before a few times already,
and each time it only worked out well for the Israelis.

Western nations who need shipping through the canal to remain open will keep the canal open - whatever that takes.

Any stoppage of shipping through the canal would only be a temporary matter.

That canal is in the international best interests now. It's not a local possession subject to the whim of a bunch of pissed off locals.

The issue of the border fence is also expected to take on greater urgency in light of the countrywide anti-government taking place across Egypt
the past six days. On Saturday, gun battles between Beduin and police in the Sinai left at least 12 people dead..

Strangely enough there are only really two countries that have that kind of unique combination of the possibility of a loss of historical artifacts
and a possible control of international trade choke points.

There are "good" military reasons for Israel to seize the sinai peninsula. It would give them strategic depth in the event of another Arab-Israeli
war. The next attack will likely be the start of the Gog-Magog war.

Personally I believe that Egypt should be, not so much “left to solve their own problems” because that’s a little callous in my opinion, but
rather the situation should be in their hands first and foremost.

At the moment, foreign intervention certainly isn’t required, but there are many foreigners in Egypt and depending on how events unfold, there may
be a situation where specialist military or quasi-military elements are required. If things deteriorate to the point where the Egyptian security
forces are in no state to prosecute a solution to a situation where foreigners are involved, then the relevant foreign elements should (and will) be
used.

If violence in the country escalates to a level where law and order in any recognisable and acceptable form has collapsed, and I’m talking mass
killings and utter chaos here, then I would find it very difficult to argue against foreign intervention. Being realistic, it isn’t as if every
country in the world is going to sit back and allow that to continue indefinitely without any involvement on their part whatsoever. Some would attempt
use it to further their own agendas and some already are I’m sure, and the intervention of some countries is more desirable than the intervention of
others.

War torn countries have learned the unfortunate lesson through loss that protecting, preserving, and recovering antiquities is extremely difficult,
and some items will never be recovered if stolen or replaced if destroyed.

As early as 2003, the BBC reported estimates that thieves had taken more than 170,000 items from Baghdad's main museum, with the museum in Mosul in
the north undergoing a similar fate.

Critics have asked why museums were left vulnerable despite repeated warnings about the dangers to priceless works before the conflict began.

Looting in Iraq has gone on for centuries, but since the war a new kind of looter has emerged. Sources say this is not the work of renegades with
shovels. It is planned and executed by organized bands—200 to 300 per site—with heavy machinery at many of the 12,000 sites. And the payout is
big. The average Iraqi makes the equivalent of $1,000 per year, yet a cache of looted antiquities can sell for $20,000. And looters can sell two or
three such caches every week.

Afghanistan after decades of war have had their museums destroyed, many of which contained artifacts from the Paleolithic era, the time of
AlexanderAlexander the Great, and from 7th century Buddhist civilizations. Today, most of the exhibits on display are merely photographs of what was
once one of the most important collections of antiquities in Asia. NPR's Ivan Watson reports from Kabul in 2004.

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