Yesterday’s weekly EIA storage number showed that natural gas injections for the US totaled 89 BCF for the week ending on June 12th, putting total storage at 2,433 BCF. This number serves as a good opportunity to look at what has been changing in the natural gas system and what’s potentially ahead in the upcoming weeks.
First, the 89 BCF injection number posted yesterday represented a significant decline in the pace of injections from the previous week when injections had totaled 111 BCF. Nonetheless, injections managed to beat the 5-year average by 3 BCF ...
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Over the past week, the ridge that has been sitting over the West Coast decided to move inland as the likes of Salt Lake City, Denver and Phoenix have all seen their respective daytime highs increase by 10-12 degrees. For example, Salt Lake City is currently showing a high of 95 degrees for today and by Sunday triple digits are in the cards. Down in Phoenix, it is just plain ole hot as the middle of the day is anywhere between 110-115 degrees with night time lows in the low 80's.
Figure 1 | Phoenix Actual and Forecast Temperatures
Such an increase in ...
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We, as a family, are going on our third year of owning a community garden plot where we grow tomatoes, eggplant, cucumbers and other simple things that taste good on a salad and or sliced up and placed on a bbq grill during the summer. This year, one of the plot owners had this idea to put together an email distribution list for people willing to help out on watering the plots when owners are out of town. Everyone seem to be finding the email channel useful since there were several email exchanges over the past few days. When I opened the latest ...
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Walking into June, the story line was all about two words, they were El Nino which was being promoted as a warm West Coast and a mild Central/Eastern part of the country. So far this month, the West Coast being warm has held true, but the Central/Eastern portion being mild has yet to materialize with last week's peak power demand increasing in some ISO's to levels seen in July and August. For example, Ercot's peak demand topped the 60 GW mark on the 10th and 11th. So far the month to date peak demand average has come in roughly 1,600 MW higher than ...
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Over the past few weeks, the two topics on the forefront as we head into summer were the health of the supply stack and El Nino. The former's rate of return would have an impact on the overall power burns all else being equal. As you can see in Figure 1 below, the nuclear fleet looks to be positioned pretty well at this time.
Figure 1 | Nuclear MW's online - Year on Year
The latter will impact the demand side of the equation. So far, month to date, the weather in the East/Producing regions has been far from El Nino like as most major cities were ...
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With warmer weather moving through most of the country this past week, I thought it would be worthwile to take a look at how the renewable landscape has impacted the net demand across the ISO's and Pacific Northwest. The two resources we will be focusing in are wind and solar, since they are the ones with the largest increased capacity over the past 5 years. Let's start our West with California since it's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is increasing the capacity of solar as they strive to meet their goal of 33% capacity by 2020.
Figure 1 | California ...
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With the latest heat wave moving through the West Coast, demand across the Pacific Northwest and California jumped up quite a bit as Portland saw high temperatures in the mid 90's for both Sunday and Monday while Sacramento was in the triple digits (104 degrees) in the middle of the afternoon. This type of heat led to the load profiles in each region to shift up to mid-summer like levels.
Figure 1 | California Peak Load - Forecast vs Actual
As you can see in the Figure 1, the actual peak demand came in much higher than the forecast. In fact, it was so ...
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Back in college, we rented a house that has its garage in the backyard. The only way you could get to it was through the alley drive path that separated you from your neighbors behind you. Since that is where you put out the garbage once a week for pick up, it was quite often you would meet the other college kids renting around you. After a couple of months, the weekly garbage take out routine morphed into what became known as the 'Rally in the Alley' Party every Friday night. This was a fun event while it lasted, but like everything else it could ...
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With the ships heading back out to sea yesterday, the 2015 Rose Festival is in the books and the committee could not have asked for a better two and a half weeks. If anyone has lived in the Portland long enough, the slogan 'it always rains during Rose Festival' has held true over the years. Not this year, as the beginning part of the festival, there was nothing but blue skies and moderate temperatures. It was only last week Monday/Tuesday did any real rain actually hit the area. That was quickly replaced by the scorching heat we saw move into ...
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Last week's EIA number showed record high injections of 132 BCF during the week ending 5/29, putting total storage to 2,233 BCF. Stepping back, this put the previous four week injection average to 16.0 BCF/D. In comparison, during this same stretch the prior year, injections averaged 15.8 BCF/D. This 0.2 BCF/D increase in injections is a key indicator of how the current supply/demand balance compares to previous years. An increase in injections means the supply side of the equation is increasing relative to the demand side, and vice versa. Thus the 0.2BCF/D increase ...
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