Tuesday, January 1

A Gentle Flat Bottom

.... and other predictions

So it is, yet again, a New Year - having stated only yesterday that we won't do a piece on predictions for 2008 here it is.

Without doubt the main political focus in 2008 (in the UK) will be the economy with a continuing down turn and with a gentle flat bottoming out mid year; only a small growth in UK economic activity by the end of the year.

After eight years of above-inflation public spending increases and a massive growth in the public sector and indeed far too much 'public sector thinking' in the UK economy - tough times are on the way for the non essential parts of the public sector (about time too) both in Westminster and particularly in the North East of England. All of which is for the good of the economy in the long run, a significant decline of Public Sector influence (or interference) will of course encourage entrepreneurial thinking - which is all very good of course.

By mid year there will be extra pressure on Gordon Brown, who has probably passed the point of no return in terms of popularity. There will be significant rebellions from Labour backbenchers over such issues as the length of time terror suspects can be held without charge as well as political pressure caused by announcements a real reductions in government spending on sensitive areas such as health, education and social benefits.

The continuing call for a referendum on the so called EU Reform Treaty (maybe even by the huge small business community) will increase in the run up to May when a debate on the issue will be before Parliament. All of which will diminish the Prime Minister’s standing and add to his woes.

.Our real government based in Brussels, the EU, will continue to pump out large amounts of directives and regulations and general interference which will impact on all of us. Most of the British public will continue to be unaware of the slow burn effect on the British way of life because the media will continue not tell them where most of our laws now come from and to a large part the great British Public cant be bothered to work it out for them selves.

British Small Businesses will continue to be disadvantaged in favour of huge businesses which nothing short of an organized meaningful protest will prevent.

As we have predicted in The Journal recently there will certainly be no general election in 2008.

The scandal surrounding Labour’s donations will resurface in a big way, almost certainly with criminal charges. Peter Hain’s “administrative error” in failing to register at least two donations to his deputy leadership campaign will come back to haunt him.

.China is set to become the Economic super star performer of the year, our only hope must be that this is reflected in a significant improvement in human rights. Well Chinese's pigs might yet fly!

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As the year progresses attention on the American presidential election, which takes place in November. With a weak set of potential Republican opponents, and with her own campaign well funded, Hillary Clinton has the best chance a woman has ever had of making it to the White House - though Mrs. Clinton has little in common with the Very British Baroness Thatcher. Whatever the outcome the US election it is important for the Western World - this blog will be there in the US in 2008 reporting on key events.

At the end of this year the British politician who purports to be the leader of HM Opposition in Parliament will say in the media ''there has to be a better way'' and that ''it can only get better''.

So there we have it - all mostly quite predidicable.

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There is of course the unexpected - which is when life does get exciting. Whatever happens VBS with a lot of help from our friends will be here on the blogosphere. A happy (blogging) new year.