Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Quick Hits

Here are a few notes about some young players on our big league club:

Many of you may have seen Kyle Blanks hit majestic home runs to leftfield in Cincinnati and again the other night in Petco, but going out to the beach in right-center like he did last night? Not many right-handed hitters have done that (Manny Ramirez is one). As one person gleefully said last night, "This is like having a brand new toy!" As a starter, Kyle is hitting .250/.375/.525 with 10 extra base hits and 13 walks in 96 plate appearances.

In the last month (since July 5) Will Venable is hitting .312/.354/.506, which includes a handful of appearances as a pinch hitter.

Knock on wood... Mat Latos and Tim Stauffer have combined for a 2.62 ERA over 44.2 innings with a WHIP under 1.00. Furthermore, in their seven full starts (Tim had a 1-inning start in Washington that ended with a rain delay) neither one has yielded more than two runs in an outing.

In the last month (since July 5) Joe Thatcher has faced 27 hitters and has struck out 13 of them. Thirteen. Meanwhile, just five have reached base. On the year he is holding left-handed hitters to a .212/.289/.333 line.

In the last month (since July 5) Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .309/.324/.557, banging out 16 extra base hits in 105 plate appearances. Furthermore, his OPS by month so far this season is: .603 in April, .652 in May, .737 in June, .795 in July, and .833 in August (ok, so it's only three games, but it fits the trend so I couldn't resist).

Tomorrow I'll provide similar notes on some of our minor leaguers, but I have one just for zino since he doesn't like any of our bats. :-) All of our minor league teams combined had the following rankings against the other 29 organizations as of late July, despite not playing in any ballparks that are particularly friendly to hitters:

Batting Average: 3rd

On-Base: 1st

Slugging: 5th

OPS: 2nd

Runs/Game: 4th

There are other categories, but as you can see, our organization is in the top five in all of the major ones. Just in case anybody thinks we have a bunch of slow-pitch softball players, we're also 1st in strikeout-to-walk ratio. Our system has accomplished this while many of the high performers were moved to more difficult levels mid-season and guys like Blanks and Venable were promoted out of the ranks.

31 comments:

Can you try to explain exactly what happened with Matt Antonelli and why you think he failed? And looking at how terrible Allan Dykstra has been, is it safe to say you will never spend a 1st round pick on someone from Wake Forest again?

Antonelli's situation is quite bizarre when deconstructing the whole into a handful of parts. Here's one example: Anto's batting average on balls in play was .377 in A+ and .364 in AA - pretty steady. It then dropped to a surprisingly low .266 in 2008 and now an insanely low .220 in 2009. Here's another similar one: his singles percentage went from 22% in A+ to 19% in AA to 15% in AAA in 2008 to 10% this year! Part of the reason for this is luck, as he's hitting just .563 on his line drives and .179 on his groundballs - both well below the normal levels.

Then there's this: when Matt first moved to AAA his strikeout rate and walk rate basically remained the same, while his power diminished, which isn't unusual or at all alarming. This year, though, while his ball-in-play average has dropped and his singles percentage has almost disappeared (which may lead you to suspect that he's not hitting the ball with any authority), his strikeout rate is down AND his isolated power is up 50%!!!

This year the knee injury took a toll early, and I'm sure the struggles have weighed on him mentally. That said, it's really difficult to pinpoint what exactly is wrong (other than the fact that not enough of his contact is translating into hits). The good news is that he's played very well defensively at 2B and the foundation for offensive success is still there.

As for Dykstra, we figured this would be a transitional year for him, and we're encouraged that he's fighting through it and still leading all of minor league baseball (I believe) in walks. His power is undeniable, so I suspect the frequency will rise dramatically.

Lastly, one of my best friends in high school went to Wake, so if all else fails, let's blame him. Who's with me?

Paul,While you point out Kooz's encouraging trend, the fact remains that in his best month long period, he still sports a .324 OBP. One assumes with that kind of impatience, his "good" months are likely to be the exception rather than the rule.

I know I posted something similar yesterday, but I'm excited about this young team. Thanks for the run down on the team. I realize some will just think this is fertilizer and there probably isn't much you can say to turn that around... but the minor league rankings seem to be encouraging.

I hope Antoneli figures it out. Besides... what does ESPN really know about the Pads... :)

Paul;quick follow-up - how much influence does the Padres organization have on the lineups of their minor league affiliates? Can you "force" (or friendly push) Portland to play Antonelli or Fort Wayne to start Dykstra regardless of how well they are doing?Thanks!

Don't mind Zino, as someone who follows our MiLB teams daily I know what kind of bats we have below Portland. I also know that the Tincaps lead all of professional baseball in wins! After getting some salary relief and pitching depth in the Peavy trade, I'm really excited for the future. Not to mention some of the stars in Eugene and in the Arizona league that most Padre fans don't know about yet.

Kulbacki hurt his hamstring, but he's now in Arizona and starting to ramp up his activity.

Part of the appeal of both Darnell and Forsythe in the draft was their potential defensive versatility. How that will play out, I don't think we know just yet. If both keep raking the way they are, we're confident we'll have places for them to play.

I feel like a minor celebrity being mentioned in your blog by name, lol... Obviously first and formeost I am a Padres fan, so I am frustrated by the anemic hitting of the major league ball club this year and last. Your blog is an absolute gem, it affords fans that have found it, incredible access to a Padres executive, that's unprecedented as far as I know. So thank you for putting up with my wining and keep up the good work. You are truly blazing new trails.A few points- Chase Headley does not seem like a natural hitter. Not sure he will ever be what he was hyped to be.- I love going to the ball park with my kids and chanting Kooooz everytime he comes to bat. Not much else I can say about him....- Cherry picking statistics is a nono, lol... But good try.- I can't wait for the bats from the minors to come up. We'll keep the light on for them.best,

We just made a trade for Aaron Poreda (and others) and despite the Padres' reputation for having a weak orginazation, Jim Callis ranked the Padres top 5 at my website and Poreda missed the list (Poreda was the 4th best prospect traded according to a BA article he also wrote).

With Grady saying yesterday you've come to terms with Lollis, can you give any insight into which of the other guys outside the top 10 are still possibilities to sign? Have any of Reyes, Madrigal or Wooten given you a flat-out no?

What was the reasoning behind releasing Mark Prior? He wasn't costing us much, and (if I recall) didn't take a spot on the 40-man.

Were his injuries just not progressing at all to the point where he might never come back? Or was it something more like we'd put in enough time and effort, and just needed to cut our losses and move on?

Paul,With the payroll relief given by the Peavy trade, can I ask if we plan on ramping up our international signings and draft signings?

I think we have less than $18M committed next year estimating arbitration numbers, and I believe that around the $65M is closer to what the organization should be around through this Cox deal. Given that there isn't a lot of splash FA the Padres should sign, would Moorad be open to giving A-Gon a front loaded contract extension?

Is there any chance that James Darnell will get another promotion before the season is over? It seems like the A/HighA levels aren't really challenging to him. It seems he should be up in AA/AAA like his college teammate Justin Smoak.

If you're still planing on doing this kind of post for the minor leaguers can I make a request and can you talk a little about Cedric hunter. I know he is still young and I still think he is going to be a good major leaguer but what is the cause for his minor dropoff this year? His obp is not very good but he still has only struck out 36 times in 450 pa is it just a year of bad luck for him? Thanks.

Paul;does the Padres organization view Stansberry still as a prospect/future MLB player or more of a AAAA player? He seems to be doing well in Portland but never got a real chance in the majors. He could be decent at 2B or utility man.Thanks!

Joe's obp against with RISP is .484 largely because of 4 intentional walks in just 32 plate appearances.

His late & close stats are based on nine plate appearances against (batters are 3 for 8).

His game tied stats are based on two ab's (batters are 1 for 2).

His career numbers in those categories are skewed due to his poor 2008 performance, which admittedly, was poor.

Small sample sizes are as bad as anecdotes, which I'll go ahead and offer... :-) How about game 163 in Colorado in 2007? Thatcher came into the game in the bottom of the 11th, runners on 1st and 2nd, to face Brad Hawpe with our entire season hanging in the balance. He struck Hawpe out.

He came back out in the bottom of the 12th, score still tied 6-6, and he struck out Jeff Baker, got Torrealba out on a flyball, and struck out Cory Sullivan.

My only issue with your statements about Kouzmanoff is that you only quote his career road numbers. In fact, this year Kouz has been nearly as terrible on the road as he has at home. His road line for 2009 is .265/.288/.422.

You just can't have a Major League third baseman making that many outs.

Hey Paul, off topic, but why is it that Shuhei Fujiya is not going to be signed? Did he decide to transfer to a college that will have a baseball program next year so that he can hopefully move up in next year's draft?

Kouz has over 1,500 major league ABs and is 28 years old, so it seems to me we know exactly the type of hitter he is (Shea Hillenbrand v2?), and no great change is forthcoming.

Since the Padres aren't competing for the playoffs this season, would it make sense to move Headley back to 3B, and play Blanks, TG Jr and Venable every day in the OF?

This would hopefully be an defensive upgrade, even if Headley takes some time to get back up to speed at 3B, and it would allow Headley to get back up to speed at 3B, and get PT to guys that may or may not turn into solid major league players.