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A Soft-Target Timetable

U.S. Daily Economic Notes by Deutsche Bank 60 Wall St. New York, N.Y. 10005 Dec.19: Financial-markets participants want to know when the unemployment rate is going to hit 6.5%—the Fed's soft target for when policy accommodation may be removed.

Based on current trends, the unemployment rate will reach this threshold by third-quarter 2014, earlier than policy makers generally anticipate based on their updated central-tendency forecasts. According to these forecasts, the unemployment rate is poised to reach 7.4% to 7.7% in fourth-quarter 2013, 6.8% to 7.3% in fourth-quarter 2014, and 6% to 6.6% in fourth-quarter 2015. However, if economic activity improves over the next year, we could reach the unemployment target ahead of schedule. -- Joseph LaVorgna, Carl Riccadonna

"1465, 1565, 1665"

Morning Briefingby Yardeni Research 68 Wheatley Rd. Glen Head, N.Y. 11545 Dec. 18: I was on CNBC yesterday morning at 7:30 for a brief interview on the outlook for stocks in 2013.

I think the S&P 500 will shortly break through the current bull-market high of 1465 reached on Sept. 14. That level is only 1.3% from yesterday's close. Either before the end of the year or early next year, the market should challenge the record high of 1565 hit on Oct. 9, 2007. By the end of next year, 1665 is likely, in my opinion. -- Ed Yardeni

Ticktock

Morning Tackby Raymond James 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Fla. 33716 Dec. 19: We saw some progress...Boehner offered to raise tax rates for those earning more than $1 million per year. Obama countered with an offer to raise tax rates only on those making more than $400,000. However, it looks increasingly unlikely that a deal will be reached by the end of the week. It's also unclear whether the leaders of the two parties will be able to take an agreement back to the House and Senate and have enough votes to pass it. A major sticking point: Neither party has been willing to propose specific spending cuts. In theory, an agreement could be reached and signed into law after Christmas, but that's unlikely. There's simply not enough time to iron out the details. -- Scott J. Brown

Think Local

Economic Outlookby Regions Financial 1900 Fifth Ave. North Birmingham, Ala. 35203 Dec. 20: Though not likely to make a significant contribution to growth anytime soon, the state- and local-government sector is at least showing signs of having stabilized. If that doesn't sound like too big of a deal, put it in the context of the drag on the economy from 11 consecutive quarters of declining real expenditures in that sector, along with the 697,000 jobs lost on the state- and local-government levels between September 2008 and June 2012. -- Richard F. Moody

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