Wednesday, July 4, 2012

Wimbledon Semis: A Look at the Numbers

Wow! How about those quarterfinal matches! Just a little warning for you: If you aren't a numbers person, this may not be your cup of tea. If you are a numbers person, you should love this post.

A Quick Hit

The Germans won the
numbers game through the Quarterfinals, with four players, two men and two
women, making the final eight in their respective draws. No. 8 Seed Angelique Kerber and No.15 Seed Sabine Lisicki faced each other in the Quarters guaranteeing the ouster of one
of the Germans left in the Women’s Draw. No.31 Seed Florian Mayer faced No.1 Seed Novak Djokovic and No.27 Seed Philipp Kohlschreiber took on No.5 Seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Both German men exited the tournament
after advancing well beyond expectations. How about some numbers for those still
in the event?

The Men

Semifinal No.1

Novak Djokovic

On serve against No.31
Seed Florian Mayer, No.1 Seed Novak Djokovic produced 65% first serves winning
76% of those, with seven aces against three double faults. His serve speed
averaged 120mph on first serves and 100mph on second. He converted 59% of his
second-serve points, and saved all but one of the eight break points he faced.

Florian Mayer

In his receiving games, Novak won 45% of points played, winning 39% and 55% of
points on Mayer's first and second serves respectively. He converted five
of the nine (56%) break point opportunities he had. Novak’s most impressive
stat may be his 50 winners against 20 unforced errors (+30) in the 27 games
played.

Roger Federer

On serve, No.3 Seed Roger
Federer served 62% first serves and won 88% of those points, despite serving
just two aces against No.26 Seed Mikhail Youzhny. Roger averaged 116mph on his
first serve, faced only two break points, and saved them both. He averaged
99mph on second serves, and won 52% of the points played.

Mikhail Youzhny

Receiving, Roger won
49% of points played, but won 49% and 48% respectively on Youzhny’s first and
second serves respectively. Roger broke six times, but that was on 20 break
opportunities, for a mediocre 30% conversion rate. He produced 25 winners
against 13 unforced errors (+12), which is pretty conservative, but good, for
Roger. One can place a very safe bet
that those numbers won’t be similar against Novak in the Semis.

Despite my pulling
for Roger to get another Slam, the numbers, current and recent past, favor Djokovic.
As has been the case with Federer for a few years now, he fails to convert a
high percentage of his break point opportunities, which ramps up the pressure
on his own serve, especially against the top players in latter rounds of Grand
Slams.

Roger’s numbers are similar to Novak’s in terms of efficiency at
Wimbledon, posting a plus-23 versus a plus-25 for Novak. The stats aren’t
provided to help us measure confidence and mental toughness, but bottom line is
that while Roger is the class of the field on serve, and Novak is class of the
field on return, Novak is better on serve than Roger is on return. However, if
Roger brings his A-game and can get over his mental breakdowns against the top
two players in the world, he has a good shot. If not, it’s all Novak.

Murray’s performance against No.7 Seed David Ferrer was as good as any I’ve seen from him in a big Grand Slam match. Murray took two of the three tiebreaks played against Ferrer with superb tennis. On serve, Murray won 80% of his first serve points, serving at 61%, and bombing 18 aces with just three doubles. He averaged 116mph and 85mph respectively on first and second serves, and converted 59% of his second serve points. Murray saved 10 of 12 (83%) break points against him against one of the best returners in the game.

David Ferrer

On the receiving end, Murray won just 35% of points played, but a relatively healthy 47% on Ferrer’s second serve. He converted just three of nine (33%) break opportunities, and will likely have to do better against the bigger serving Tsonga. Murray’s efficiency numbers (+22) were second only to Djokovic’s, cracking 61 winners against 39 unforced errors.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

On serve against Phillipp
Kohlschreiber, Tsonga produced 63% first serves winning 80% of those, with 17
aces and zero doubles. He averaged 120mph on first serves and 95mph on second
serves, winning 59% of his second serve points. Tsonga faced five break points
and saved three of them.

Philipp Kohlschreiber

In receiving games, Tsonga won just 35% of the points
played, winning 43% of Kohlschreiber’s second serve points. However, he
converted just three of 10 break points (30%). His efficiency was on par with
Rogers (+16), posting 43 winners against 27 unforced errors. Tsonga’s penchant
for lowering his level of play at times could cost him against Murray, as it
did in losing the second set against Kohlschreiber, where his efficiency rating
(+2) was the lowest of the four sets.

Both Murray and
Tsonga have been known to have some struggles mentally during big matches, but
Murray looked mentally sound throughout his match with Ferrer, and Tsonga has
been able to turn it on seemingly at will after his lapses. In this matchup we
have Tsonga with the tournament’s best efficiency numbers (+29), against the player
with the worst (+21). However, Murray has won five of six times the two have
met, including the past four, one of those a quarterfinal win at Wimbledon in
2010.

Will the crowd provide the boost that Murray needs, or will the pressure
prove too much? Will Tsonga be able to erase the memory of his five-set loss to
Djokovic at the French after having three match points? Murray had a very
physical test against Ferrer, and if this one goes deep, Tsonga should have the
advantage. But if Murray plays a controlled yet aggressive match, as he did
against Ferrer, he stands a good chance of taking it in four or less.

Some Numbers on All Four

On the year, Novak
is No.1 on second serve points won on opponents’ serves and No.2 in return
games won on Tour. Federer is No.24 and No.22 respectively. Murray is in the
top five in both (No.2 and No.4 respectively). Tsonga is in the top ten in break points
converted at No.6 (47%), while Djokovic is No.11 at 45%, and Federer is No.23
at 42%. Murray is at No.22 also at 42%.

On points won while returning opponents’
first serves, Novak is No.4 while Roger is No.34. Murray comes in at No.9 and
Tsonga at No.12. On all return measures, Roger is the weakest of the four
semifinalists.

Where Fed makes up
the difference on the other Semifinalists is on serve. He’s leads the pack in
aces at No.4, with Tsonga coming in at No.8. Novak is well down the list at No.20,
and Murray is No.22. Roger is also tops in the group in second serve points won
(1st), first-serve points won (4th), service games won (2nd),
and break points saved (6th). Tsonga (14th), Murray (15th),
and Ferrer (16th) all lead Novak (31st) in break points
saved.

In fact, the only listed serving category in which Roger isn’t in the
top ten is in service percentage where he comes in at No.36. Djokovic is at No.29,
Murray at No.53, and Tsonga is not in the top 75. Novak is right behind Roger in second
serve points won at No.3, and isNo.12 in service games won, so although he isn't among the leaders in first-serve numbers, he's right there on second serves. Tsonga comes in at
No.15 and Murray at No.28 in service games won.

These two Semifinals
provide terrific storylines for Wimbledon, and some of the best tennis that
will have been played on the planet. No way do you want to miss either of these
if you are a tennis fan…even if your guy Rafa isn’t in the mix.

The Women

Semifinal No.1

Victoria Azarenka

No.2 Seed Victoria “Vika”
Azarenka was dominant in her match against Tamira Paszek, the only unseeded player
to reach the Quarters. Vika served an impressive 75% first serves and won an
even more impressive 78% of those points, while serving seven aces against
three doubles. She won 60% of her second-serve points. She had an average
first-serve speed of 100mph and second-serve average at 83mph, faced four break
points and saved two.

Tamira Paszek

On the receiving side, Vika won 46% of receiving points
and converted on three of the nine (33%) breaks opportunities she had. Her aggressive
but efficient 33 winners versus 18 unforced errors, was very key in her
dominant performance (+15).

Serena Williams

No.6 Seed Serena
Williams played her best match against No.2 Seed Petra Kvitova. Serena served
59% first serves, but won an incredible 86% of those with 13 aces against zero
double faults. She averaged 109mph on first serves and 91mph on second, winning
56% of second-serve points. Serena faced just one break point in the two sets,
and saved that. While receiving,

Petra Kvitova

Serena won just 40% of points played against
the big-serving Kvitova, but converted on two of the four (50%) break points
she had. In addition to her stellar serving, Serena’s efficiency was responsible
for her advance to the Semis. She delivered 27 winners against 10 unforced
errors (+17).

Just looking at the
numbers, as well as the players’ records, it would appear that the semifinal-matchup
between Azarenka and Williams would be more fitting in the final. The numbers
presage an epic battle, but only if both players bring their A games, or both
bring sub-par games. If either is on and the other off, a blowout would be in
the making.

Azarenka has appeared to be more stable mentally throughout the
event, but Serena has navigated her way through some tough mental moments. Serena
has beaten Azarenka five straight times and seven of the eight they’ve played. Will
Azarenka’s newly-found confidence as a result of her stellar year trump Serena’s
experience as a 13-time Grand Slam singles winner? Only time will tell.

Semifinal No.2

Angelique Kerber

No. 8 Seed Angelique
Kerber served 66% of her first serves winning 61% of those points, with only two
aces and three double faults. She averaged 94mph on her first serve, and posted
an impressive 60% of second serve points won despite an average second-serve
speed of 74mph. Kerber was broken five times, but broke No.15 Seed Sabine
Lisicki eight times.

Sabine Lisicki

On return, Angelique won 48% of receiving points, despite
Lisicki’s 105mph on first serve and 82mph on second. She made 19 winners
against 13 unforced errors for the lowest efficiency number (+6) of the
remaining players.

Agnieszka Radwanska

No.3 Seed Agnieszka “Aga”
Radwanska served 77% on first serves with five aces, but won just 59% of those
points, slightly more than the 56% of points she won on her second serve. Her average first-serve speed was 93mph and
her second-serve average was 76mph. Aga was broken five times in the three sets
she played against the big hitting Kirilenko, but saved seven other break
points.

On her receiving games, she won 44% of the points played, but won 50%
of points on her opponent’s second serves. She broke Kirilenko six times, but
only converted 33% of break point chances. Despite her less than superb serving
numbers, her outstanding efficiency rating, firing 36 winners against 22
unforced errors (+14), along with her strong return numbers got her over the
hump.

The second Semifinal
couldn’t be more even. The numbers above indicate a pretty even matchup with
Radwanska holding a slight edge on serve and a better efficiency rating.
However, the two are so evenly matched that it will likely come down to who
manages the moment better. They are 2-2 in head-to-head battles, with three of
the four matches going three sets, and have split the last two.

Kerber has been
in one Grand Slam Semifinal (US Open last year), while Radwanska has never been
to a Grand Slam Semi. She has made five Quarterfinal appearances in Slams and
is having as good a year as she has had on Tour. This ought to be another very competitive
match, with the winner having nothing to lose in the Final.

As with the men, we
have two terrific matchups with similar styles in both Semis. Like Roger,
Serena is trying to secure yet another Grand Slam title. Like Djokovic, Vika is
trying to cement her standing as one of the top two women in the world.
Radwanska is comparable to Andy Murray, hanging around the top five in the
world without being able to get over the hump to claim a Grand Slam. Unlike
Tsonga who has been a resident in the men’s top ten for some time, Angelique
Kerber is a relative newcomer in the women’s top ten. However, like Tsonga, she
is looking to claim her first Grand Slam title. Should be fun! Game, set, match…T.
A.

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