A bit too much considering we havent even seen how he plays when averaging 30 - 35 minutes a game and i honestly think ed davis would have higher production than amir with those minutes plus hes an inch taller and 15 pounds heavier and a lot cheaper Amirs a good guy and seems to appreciate the city but 7 million is too much for a role player.

I am a big believer in advanced stats and the contribution to wins besides scoring. But this doesnt justify overpaying for these other skills. I really liked what Amir brings to the table, hell i even said that when the trade went down:http://dinogunners.blogspot.com/2009...valuation.html

But he is good value at 3-4 million/season, not 7. Also, it is not a good deal when you are rebuilding and want all available cap space.

What I am trying to show is that the skills Johnson provides are the most replacable via the draft. Signing players to long-term contracts negates the value to wins they provide in the first place because you are overpaying for that. Also, I actively tried to pick players who were undrafted/late in the lottery or draft to show how plentiful this type of player is. Players like Varejo, Horford, and the Gasol brothers easily post better stats than Johnson.

I'm a big believer in watching players play, and what I see in Johnson is not nearly as easily replicated as many of you seem to think. Yes, you can get a player with hustle, or that rebounds or that helps on defense or that scores efficiently. Pops was a high energy guys who could rebound, but was awful on defense. Reggie Evans is a fantastic rebounder and hustle guy, but he hurts you on offense and isn't the greatest defender. Chris Andersen is another high energy guy who blocks shots and rebounds, but actually isn't very good at man to man defense. Most guys like Amir Johnson have a huge flaw that hurts the team if they play too many minutes.

Varejao is actually a good comparison. In his third season, which last season basically was for Johnson, since he barely played his first two, Varejao had very similar stats to Johnson. And they are making about the same.

Horford is an All-Star, as is Pau Gasol and Marc Gasol nearly was. I'm not sure what they have to do with this discussion.

What people seem to be forgetting is that Amir is basically going into his fourth season and is only 23. He played a total of 11 games in his first two. Right now, Johnson may not be worth it, but it's a good bet he will continue to improve. He's a hard worker, great teammate and good player.

I realize that either way, the Raptors probably have his Bird rights (full or Early) but I'm a stickler for details and don't want to be confused in the future.

Since Johnson was with Detroit for four years, I think it's safe to assume they had his full Bird rights.

FromTOtoVAN wrote:

A bit too much considering we havent even seen how he plays when averaging 30 - 35 minutes a game and i honestly think ed davis would have higher production than amir with those minutes plus hes an inch taller and 15 pounds heavier and a lot cheaper Amirs a good guy and seems to appreciate the city but 7 million is too much for a role player.

Davis is also on a rookie contract. If you want to keep getting guys who will be on their rookie contract, you can do that, but if you want to win, eventually you're going to have to pay them. And while johnson hasn't averaged 30 mpg yet, Davis has even played a minute, yet. At this point, the Raptors are going to want Amir to probably start and Davis can back up the PF and C positions.

smushmush wrote:

i support your opinion that his skills could be replicated in the draft. i don`t see kevin pritchard or sam presti paying amir that kind of money(sam presti probably will not be paying ibaka(solid defensively than Amir) more than $5m per) and portland, okc are small market teams like us that struggle signing free agents. i will continue to say it that bc has bad negotiating skills.the speed with which the early deals in this year`s free aency were done smirks of overpaying(rudy gay, gooden and yes amir).After this free agency, I would not be surprised to see a lot of Sean May cap killer contracts that will be grandfathered in the next cba.

If you can find a big man guy who doesn't have a fatal flaw and who hustles, rebounds, plays defense and scores efficiently in the draft, I'm guessing you'll be drafting in the lottery. Of course, you can find an entire starting unit in the draft, too. That's where EVERYONE starts. Eventually, though, you're going to have to start paying for them unless you just want to keep turning over your roster.

Pritchard is the same guy who tried to sign Turkoglu for $10 million and would have if Turkoglu hadn't changed his mind. And he paid LaMarcus Aldridge nearly twice what the Raptors are paying Amir. And remember that Sam Presti is the guy who nearly traded for Tyson Chandler, who's also making twice that of Amir, but only backed out after Chandler failed a physical. Make no mistake, all teams are looking for big men who can rebound, play defense and score efficiently.

When Drew Gooden, who has been on 8 teams in 8 years, barely plays defense and is renowned for making bone headed decisions, signs a 5 year $32 million contract, it's really hard to say that Amir is really all that overpaid.

Of course, if Colangelo had lost Amir to someone else, I'm sure you'd be criticizing either him or MLSE for being too cheap. You can't have it both ways.

STEAL OF A DEAL. (Not now but definately later)

Amir Johnson is my favorite raptor at this moment, I think when given minutes he will be able to produce much better numbers than Andrea. He's already shown this on the defensive end. Since Bargnani got a massive extension last summer, he rarely shows his worth. Im not raggin on the guy but we need to be shown hes worth the price. Most people tend to forget defence wins games. Now with Bosh potentially out of the picture. The future looks bright for Amir, and the Raptors organization. Nevertheless, for what hes put in this past season, the output shouldn't warrant this type of contract. Im think BC believes that this contract will pay off down the road. His Defensive ratings have shown he has ridiculous upside at only 23. Only time will tell if this contract is good or bad.

I have a feeling most of the people here saying he is way overpaid are going to turn into those saying that this deal was a steal. He is going to be a starter for this team for the next few years. The Johnson era begins.

This is what I feared. Don't get me wrong, I like Amir, and I didn't actually think we'd get him back for $4 mil per, but I was hoping for no more than $5 mil per.
Hopefully anything we do in days to come won't clog up our future cap too much and Amir continues to get better as an all-around player, or this could be JYD 2.0, especially with the new CBA.

Lets Hope Amir Shows the same Hustle and energy this year as well and all that was not just for his Contract year because then, He would be worth than JYD.

This is a typical BC move. Play a player 25-30% more than anyone else and make sure you will sign him.

His ego was not allowing him to lose on both Bosh and Amir in the same summer. Now the question is how much will we pay Weems to stick around. another 5 year 40 million this time ???!!! Young Gunz all the way to the NBA finals.

For People who think this was a STEAL of a DEAL.
What are you expectations of Amir in the coming year?
How many minutes do you think he should be able to play?
What kind of numbers sound reasonable with his new Salary and Status in the Raptor Land?

Definitely overpaid, however not by that much. If it was 6mil I think most people can live with it, 5.5 and ESPN wouldn't have Amir on their front page.
The problem is the amount of people being overpaid on the current raptors roster; arguably Bargs, Jose, Turk, Banks, Evans, (Amir).

Optimistically I hope Amir improves because if he doesn't this becomes an obvious bad contract.

You, sir, are hilarious. Have you noticed that each and every single one of your posts involve a change in position?
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So here's my response:
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You were also wrong in your initial point that the Raptors will have to use their MLE on Amir Johnson, but I guess you saw your error and quickly tried to amend it with another piece of speculative BS. If it takes way more than the ~$6 mil (MLE value) to re-sign Amir, goodbye Amir. Otherwise, welcome back and the Raptors will be sitting on $51-53 million worth of guaranteed salary, plus whatever they get back for Bosh, if anything, and plus or minus the difference in salary between Hedo and whatever we get back for him. Considering the luxury tax level will be ~$68 mil (if the projected cap of ~$56 mil stays true), we should have plenty of room for the rookie contract, MLE and minimum salary players, unless we take someone like Bynum back in the Bosh trade. It will likely be the MLE that puts us into the luxury tax, and if the MLE is well spent, it will be worth it anyhow.

Conclusion: You're an idiot.
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Quixotic wrote:

it can be argued that overpaying to keep him is better than losing him

Quixotic wrote:

Tim, I have no idea why I decided to arbitrarily count only from the third season (when he got his new contract) onward. LOL

Quixotic wrote:

We either have his Early Bird rights (I don't know of Early Bird rights follow the player the same was full Bird rights do), which does seem to work as well, or we just used our MLE on Amir (Bosh's cap hold puts us over the cap).

Amir Johnson(notes) has reached agreement on a five-year, $34 million contract to return to the Toronto Raptors, his agent Kevin Bradbury told Yahoo! Sports on Thursday.

Johnson, 23, averaged 6.2 points and 4.8 rebounds while playing all 82 games for the Raptors last season. Bradbury said Johnson considered about four teams before agreeing quickly to return to Toronto on the first day of free agency.

“Amir didn’t want to play the free agency game,” Bradbury said. “He wanted to go back to Toronto. He’s young and he has security and a lot of basketball left in him.”

Johnson can’t sign the contract until July 8 when the signing moratorium ends.

For People who think this was a STEAL of a DEAL.
What are you expectations of Amir in the coming year?
How many minutes do you think he should be able to play?
What kind of numbers sound reasonable with his new Salary and Status in the Raptor Land?

Well, I don't think anyone actually thinks this is a steal. It is what it is. The Raptors were bidding against a few other teams, and with Drew Gooden getting similar money, it was pretty inevitable that Amir would be getting the kind of money he did. I'd love to have seen him gotten for less, but it's obvious that wasn't going to happen. All you complaining that he was overpaid have to realize that was almost certainly getting similar offers elsewhere.

As for his minutes, I'd like to see him get around 30 minutes a game, and I'm not really hung up on numbers. I would just like to see him contribute the same as he did in 17 minutes over 30 minutes.

Well, I don't think anyone actually thinks this is a steal. It is what it is. The Raptors were bidding against a few other teams, and with Drew Gooden getting similar money, it was pretty inevitable that Amir would be getting the kind of money he did. I'd love to have seen him gotten for less, but it's obvious that wasn't going to happen. All you complaining that he was overpaid have to realize that was almost certainly getting similar offers elsewhere.

As for his minutes, I'd like to see him get around 30 minutes a game, and I'm not really hung up on numbers. I would just like to see him contribute the same as he did in 17 minutes over 30 minutes.

Helping the Raptors win. I am sure he will continue his hardest during games and in practice to try and make that happen

What I'm actually a bit confused about is whether the Raptors have Amir's full Bird rights. For a team to gain full Bird rights, that player needs to have played for the same team for THREE consecutive seasons without being a free agent or being waived. Examples illustrate this being done with 2 full seasons and a half season before being traded, which lead me to now think we don't have his full Bird rights. We either have his Early Bird rights (I don't know of Early Bird rights follow the player the same was full Bird rights do), which does seem to work as well, or we just used our MLE on Amir (Bosh's cap hold puts us over the cap).

Larry Bird Exception - max salary limited by years of service, 10.5% raises, 6 years max
Early Bird Exception - max salary of either 175% of previous salary or just the average player salary, 10.5% raises, 5 years max
Mid Level Exception - max salary of the average player salary, 8% raises, 5 years max

As you can see both the MLE and the Early Bird are pretty similar.

25. How long must a player be with one team before the Larry Bird exception can be used?
The basic idea is that a player must play for the same team for three seasons for his team to gain Bird rights (two seasons for Early Bird rights). It can be a single three-year contract, a series of three one-year contracts, or any combination that adds up to three seasons (two for Early Bird). However there are a number of complications:

•When a player is traded, his new team inherits his Bird rights. For example, if a player signs a three-year contract, plays two and a half seasons with that team, and is traded at the trade deadline in the third season, then his new team owns full Bird rights following the third season.

25. How long must a player be with one team before the Larry Bird exception can be used?
The basic idea is that a player must play for the same team for three seasons for his team to gain Bird rights (two seasons for Early Bird rights). It can be a single three-year contract, a series of three one-year contracts, or any combination that adds up to three seasons (two for Early Bird). However there are a number of complications:

•When a player is traded, his new team inherits his Bird rights. For example, if a player signs a three-year contract, plays two and a half seasons with that team, and is traded at the trade deadline in the third season, then his new team owns full Bird rights following the third season.

I probably should have said similarly. It's doubtful he'll be able to maintain what he did over 17 minutes for 30 minutes. Still, if he bring a similar amount of energy, hustle and does the other things he does well, I'll be happy.

You have a long and grudge-holding memory, apparently. Good thing there's a thing called context, and anyone who reads your posts which my posts were in response to would be having a nice chuckle right now.

"it can be argued that overpaying to keep him is better than losing him"

What is wrong with this statement? "It can be argued" doesn't mean "I agree" in English. In fact, the rest of the post you cut that from was me stating the opinion that Amir is being overpaid.

"If it takes way more than the ~$6 mil (MLE value) to re-sign Amir, goodbye Amir."

Again, not sure why you bolded this part. First, it was my opinion that we should definitely let Amir go if it would cost us "way more" than ~$6 mil/MLE value. Second, it didn't cost us way more than MLE value; in fact, the deal will be very close to MLE value, since it will be starting at ~$5.6 mil.

As for the rest, yes, I admit I had a brain fart over a non-issue yesterday. You got me there.

But in the end, context is amazing and the next time you want to take issue, you might wanna include the rest of my post where I called you out for making up salary cap rules and pulling numbers out of your butt. It was a major factor in me calling you an idiot.

You have a long and grudge-holding memory, apparently. Good thing there's a thing called context, and anyone who reads your posts which my posts were in response to would be having a nice chuckle right now.

I have never had a keen memory sorry but im not taking idiot calls everyday and also its really impossible to ignore you cuz you are everywhere in this forum. Forum is currently under invasion by your deep bright NBA knowledges!

"it can be argued that overpaying to keep him is better than losing him"

What is wrong with this statement? "It can be argued" doesn't mean "I agree" in English. In fact, the rest of the post you cut that from was me stating the opinion that Amir is being overpaid.

The wrong with this statement is coming from your "original" post, our NBA genius. Calling "Speculative BS" vs "it can be argued" for same argument (overpaying Amir) is creating a hard contrast and being good example for your lovely words "change in position" at least in Turkish!.

"If it takes way more than the ~$6 mil (MLE value) to re-sign Amir, goodbye Amir."

Again, not sure why you bolded this part. First, it was my opinion that we should definitely let Amir go if it would cost us "way more" than ~$6 mil/MLE value. Second, it didn't cost us way more than MLE value; in fact, the deal will be very close to MLE value, since it will be starting at ~$5.6 mil.

Its bolded cuz it will show you how quickly a "Spaculative BS" can turn a fact (in a week) and how you turned "You were also wrong in your initial point that the Raptors will have to use their MLE on Amir Johnson" to "we just used our MLE on Amir" in a week also. This time "Facts" changed your "position" huh.

As for the rest, yes, I admit I had a brain fart over a non-issue yesterday. You got me there.

If your mind full with too many bullshits, it will most likely release some metan(CH2) gas time to time. Be careful while your brain is farting, It can be dangerous, its one of the highly explosive gases, dont blow your mind with absurd things, get a life, walk on greens.

But in the end, context is amazing and the next time you want to take issue, you might wanna include the rest of my post where I called you out for making up salary cap rules and pulling numbers out of your butt. It was a major factor in me calling you an idiot.

Sure , if ya want. Here is the your major factor you want me to post:

"Not over 40M $, its 31.800.000 $ (last year on his contract has player option and CBA rules exclude option year at trade kicker). That makes his kicker about 4.700.000 $ ( if it is %15 on his contract, rumors say its max and %15) . If he waives some of his kicker, say %30 ( he cant waive all of it , sorry but its another CBA rules; max 1/3 i guess)"

Above sentences was written to some one who was debating hedos kicker is $6M over the remaining 4 years (actually pathetic part of whole those things --> he is not being a "idiot" in our NBA genius eyes while he was way away of the value but when some one from other continental who try to show him its not as simple math as he implied is being an "idiot". I bet it has nothing to do with being of Hedo fan for taking your attention! huh). Look English is not my mother tongue, yea right but i know if some one start with "say" and finish with "i guess" in his sentence he most probably is not being sure about what the precise figure and trying not to impose misleading information. At least he should not deserve to be calling idiot for his bona fide effort. Being Raptors fan from day 1 or having deep basketball knowledge cant give nobody the right of calling idiot anybody in this forum. I'm done with you. Feel free to fly. Good luck "Conclusion Man"