I'm backing Denver -9.5 despite the 23-2 ATS trend of home dogs of 8+ over last 3 years.

Oakland's defense is miserable. in this 5 game losing streak, allowing over 7 yards per play (unheard of in NFL, college like statistic) and 38 PPG...they have absolutely no pass rush whatsoever... this was a reason I backed Denver against TB and covered (only by 1 point, but only due to backdoor was it so close). Oakland made Weeden look like Brady last week, and can't stop the run either (recall Martin's 250 yard rushing performance). All metrics indicate Oakland is the worst team in the NFL right now.

Oakland's offense hovers in the below average-average area, I don't think McFadden makes much of a difference. Palmer's having an okay year, but Denver has an elite defense and especially an elite pass rush.

I expect Manning to shred this defense. 30/38 for 338 yards in the last meeting, a 37-6 win.

I think Broncos win by 14-17 points and cover. Oakland only keeps this close with a lucky day as far as turnovers/penalties. REALLY bad football team.

Posted this earlier, but wanted the experts opinion in here......getting down to the nitty gritty in my survivor league....I think my best options this week are: Denver Tampa Bay San Francisco

I'm leaning heavy with Denver, though I hate taking a road team in a division game even with a giant talent disparity. Anyone want to make me feel better about this pick? Also about 75% of the remaining folks have used Denver already, so I should be in some pretty tight company.

Raiders up to 11.5. Will probably take it. Titans +5 is meh. I don't like Tenn on the road. Jags +2.5 is meh Rams and Saints are nice. Brees is going to abuse that shitty nyg secondary I kinda like Arizona +11.5 not touching houston