Current turnout and electorate composition by party. Combined with polling averages, early vote tallies are estimated as well as a final vote tally (that assumes an impossible 100% voter turnout) if the electorate’s composition does not change.

Dem

Rep

Ind

Trump

Clinton

2016 Turnout

40.04%

32.17%

20.28%

241,793

259,536

2016 Percent of Electorate

41.80%

34.70%

23.20%

873,668

937,776

Averaging the approximated vote shares by demographics yields this approximated early vote tally.

Trump

Clinton

Estimated Early Votes

241,793

259,536

If current turnout remains the same through election day, we might see these final results.

Trump

Clinton

If this patter holds, estimated final vote tally

873,668

937,776

Compare to 2012.

2012 Early Votes (Estimates)

Obama

379,642

56.40%

Romney

283,634

42.14%

What percent of the 2012 early vote does each candidate have?

Trump

Clinton

Percent of 2012 Early Vote

85.2%

68.4%

Who’s leading the early vote?

Trump

Clinton

Share of Early Vote

40.75%

43.74%

Likely due to relative third-party popularity, both candidate’s early vote percentage is running behind their predecessor’s.