I said, young man ...

The Telegraph may say it's a two-horse race between Clarke and Davis - but an unscientific canvass of party members waiting for the conference to begin at the Winter Gardens this morning suggests that the younger David shouldn't lose hope just yet. All the Conservatives I spoke to this morning - and last week's ballot result means that their votes will count - said they rated the shadow education secretary highly and would make him either their first or second choice.

"I thought [his] launch was brilliant," said a delegate from Chelmsford, who admitted she had found it difficult to canvass for Michael Howard and IDS. "He didn't wear a tie, he pushed a buggy, he's interested in special needs. I'd like to see George Osborne in his shadow cabinet."

From a party member from Barrow-in-Furness: "David Cameron is a good man. So's Liam Fox. This conference is the beginning of a new era for our party."

Although a poor speech by Cameron tomorrow could change a lot of minds, his youth does not seem to be a major handicap: the consensus seems to be that Labour will be fighting the next election with a new leader, but the Tories' man - and few people think Theresa May will stand - will have had nearly four years to make a name for himself.

Oh, and one other thing: only one delegate I spoke to spontaneously mentioned Malcolm Rifkind's name. The shadow secretary of state for work and pensions dodged my tram this morning as he ran across the road to the Imperial Hotel, suitcase in hand. He didn't look like a leadership contender, and it probably won't be long before he follows Andrew Lansley's example and bows out of the race.