Did E1b1b cross directly from North Africa to Europe due to climate change ?

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Did E1b1b cross directly from North Africa to Europe due to climate change ?

I have expanded the history of haplogroup E1b1b with a new theory about the origin of E1b1b in Europe. The absence of E1b1b in Neolithic sites so far raises new questions to which I hope to find the answer. Here is the text :

It is still unclear when haplogroup E entered Europe. Recent DNA tests from Neolithic sites in southern Germany and southern France lacked all trace of E1b1b. This suggests a later arrival, either towards the end of the Neolithic/Chalcolithic or during the Bronze Age. In the absence of Y-DNA from Neolithic Greece, South italy and Iberia, nothing rules out the possibility that E1b1b was present to these regions since the Neolithic, Mesolithic or even the late Paleolithic. North Africans carriers of E1b1b could have crossed the Mediterranean (probably in several independent waves) anytime between the Last Glacial Maximum (circa 20,000 years ago) and the last desertification of the Sahara that started when the monsoon retreated south 6,200 years ago.

At the Last Glacial Maximum, sea levels were 120 metres lower than today and the Strait of Gibraltar was just a few kilometres wide, permitting even the most primitive raft to cross it easily. Is it merely a coincidence that the last attested trace of Neanderthal in Iberia (actually in Gibraltar itself) dates from 24,000 years ago, a short time before the Last Glacial Maximum ? Could their disappearance be the result of an an absorption by Homo Sapiens from North Africa ? The last Iberian Neanderthals did show some signs of hybridization with Homo Sapiens. Whereas Homo Sapiens indisputably colonised Europe from the Middle East, a counter-current colonisation from Northwest Africa is plausible too. This would explains why there is so much Northwest African E-M81 in Portugal and Northwest Spain, which is not corroborated by any historical migration nor by any archaeologically demonstrable Neolithic migration from Northwest Africa.

The Sahara changed many times from a lush green place to a hot and arid desert in the last 20,000 years. It was as arid as today at the end of the last Ice Age 13,000 years ago, then the warming climate brought tropical monsoons again from 10,000 to 7,000 years before present. The desertification taking place today started around 4,200 BCE. This severe transformations of their environment surely had a tremenfous effect on the indigenous (E1b1b) people, causing populations booms during the green millennia of the Neolithic, and prompting migrations to milder climes once the rain had gone. It wouldn't be all that surprising that North Africans crossed the Mediterranean (again ?) in the late Neolithic. The region most affected by the desertification would have been around modern Libya. The northern Maghreb enjoys the protection of the mountains that stopped the advance of the desert. Egypt had the Nile and its delta. One hypothesis is that the Neolithic population of Libya migrated to what is now South Italy, Greece, Macedonia and Albania, bringing with them the E-V13 lineage, which is still found in Libya today, as well as in Iberia, Egypt and the Levant, but is far more common around Greece. Alternatively, instead of crossing directly the Mediterranean from Tunisia to Sicily, then to Italy and the southern Balkans, the migration could have taken place along the coast of the Mediteranean, through Egypt, the Levant and Anatolia, and eventually to Greece. Some migrants might have taken a westward route to Iberia, explaining why E-V13 is found in western Iberia, alongside the Maghreban E-M81, while Greeks never colonised that region.

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

I think E1b1b was probably hanging out in West Asia for a while until the movement happened to Europe, and among them there was likely J2 men as well.

That was what I thought before too. But that does not explain why E1b1b has a higher frequency than J2 in Western Iberia or the Southern Balkans. J2 is far more common than E1b1b in West Asia (ratio of almost 3:1). It also fails to explain why there is so little E-V13 in West Asia and the Levant. Furthermore, if Neolithic farmers and herders were only G2a, then how did E1b1b reach Iberia at all from the Middle East ?

Finally, the Dodecad admixture found a common Mediterranean element for South Europeans, North Africans and Middle Easterners alike. It is almost undeniable that this Mediterranean element comprises most or all E1b1b in Europe, and some E1b1b in North Africa (the E-M78, I would think). The best correlation is E-M78 + T + I(xI1/I2b). If European E1b1b came through Southwest Asia (Levant) and West Asia (Anatolia, Caucasus) and mixed with J2 or other haplogroups there before reaching Europe, we would expect much more West Asian and Southwest Asian admixture in Europeans. Instead, there is more Mediterranean admixture.

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

I think E1b1b was probably hanging out in West Asia for a while until the movement happened to Europe, and among them there was likely J2 men as well.

E1b-V13 okay, but E1b-M81? Its pattern doesn't lend itself well to that. See this map (originally posted by Ferreira). Unless you're suggesting massive displacement from its origin... perhaps thinking of E1b-M81 as a "first wave" that predated the spread of E1b-V13? I have trouble seeing that as the case.

That was what I thought before too. But that does not explain why E1b1b has a higher frequency than J2 in Western Iberia or the Southern Balkans. J2 is far more common than E1b1b in West Asia (ratio of almost 3:1). It also fails to explain why there is so little E-V13 in West Asia and the Levant. Finally, if Neolithic farmers and herders were only G2a, then how did E1b1b reach Iberia at all from the Middle East ?

Where did you get the impression that J2 is lacking in Iberia? I think both of J2 and E1b1b are indeed comparable there, here you go:

Furthermore, I think a small number of the E1b1b in Iberia likely migrated from North Africa via Morocco (The presence of E1b1a may have something to say about that), in any case, it's nothing significant.

As for the E1b1b in the Balkans, I would say E-V13 most likely originated there after its migration from West Asia in the form of E-M78, while the J2 that migrated with it may have been both, J2a and J2b.

E1b-V13 okay, but E1b-M81? Its pattern doesn't lend itself well to that. See this map (originally posted by Ferreira). Unless you're suggesting massive displacement from its origin... perhaps thinking of E1b-M81 as a "first wave" that predated the spread of E1b-V13? I have trouble seeing that as the case.

I'm quite blind when I looked at the Iberian project at FTDNA, looks like a big chunk of them are indeed E1b-M81, there seems to be a significant North African gene wave in that case.

I wrote Western Iberia. It's not an impression. I compiled the stats and made the maps.

Originally Posted by Cobol19

Furthermore, I think a small number of the E1b1b in Iberia likely migrated from North Africa via Morocco (The presence of E1b1a may have something to say about that), in any case, it's nothing significant.

Are you one of those Iberian nihilist who pass their time playing down any African or Middle Eastern influence amongst Iberians ?

Originally Posted by Cobol19

As for the E1b1b in the Balkans, I would say E-V13 most likely originated there after its migration from West Asia in the form of E-M78, while the J2 that migrated with it may have been both, J2a and J2b.

And did you get that idea from what I and others wrote in the last 3 or 4 years ?

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

I wrote Western Iberia. It's not an impression. I compiled the stats and made the maps.

I'm just curious, what are the sources for these numbers and these maps? I ask this because if we take Galicia for example, you have 22% E1b1b, and 3.5% J2, someone who knows enough about Y-DNA should separate the subclades of E1b1b because E-78 for example is likely West Asian/Balkan while E-81 is clearly a North African gene wave, and based on this study for example:

Out of 88 samples taken, there's 8% E-78, 10% E-81, and 8% J2, this makes me wonder how you came up with the numbers you put down, providing the sources would help, so I'll wait for your respond on that.

Are you one of those Iberian nihilist who pass their time playing down any African or Middle Eastern influence amongst Iberians ?

I'm not Iberian, and if anything, I'm actually confirming the African gene wave, read what I wrote again.

And did you get that idea from what I and others wrote in the last 3 or 4 years ?

No, it's just a guess on my part based on the existence of both lineages in the Balkans.

Maciamo, ¿which haplogroups were included in the Southern European cluster at the K=10 run in your opinion? I tell this because the average was almost the same compared with the actual Mediterranean (just a different name) in Iberians, and I don't see the huge "non" European influence you claim. Or perhaps I didn't understood your argument.Actually, the clusters that have increased the average are the West and the East European (Northern Europe), at least, more than the Mediterranean.

I also see that in both runs what is classified as non European, it's perfectly listed as North African, West Asian, Southwest Asian, South Asian, etc. Even the Mediterranean cluster is far while checking the distances from the non European groups than the one listed as Southern European (this was closer to Southwest Asian, while Med. already it isn't).

Is there regional autosomal data for North Western Iberia and Ile de France?
I wonder wether EM81 is included in the Mediterranean or in the North West African component.

I found in the ancestry thread of the Dodecad Project that DOD081, DOD392, DOD393 are from Galicia. The total for Northwest African, East African, Neo-African and Paleo-African is respectively 5.9%, 8.1% and 2.5%. The average for the 8 Portuguese members is 8.7%. So there is definitely a sizeable African component in Western Iberia. In the samples from East Spain (Catalonia, Valencia), the African admixture is much lower, from 1.5% to 2.5%. It's only 0.6% for the Greeks though, but they lack E-M81. My hypothesis is that E-M78 is represented under "Mediterranean".

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

I must say that I have speculated (non-seriously, of course) the absolute latest for the spread of E1b1b (as well as other Haplogroups), and that would be the Roman period. Imagine that E1b1b was in Italy some time in the Neolithic/Chalcolithic. At the same note, for the sake of an argument I pick up Etrusco-Romano's idea that R1b-U152 is solely Italic/Roman in origin (something I don't believe but I'm going to run with for the sake of an argument):

Is it possible that (most) E1b, just like J2 and R1b-U152 all came from Italy with spread of the Roman Empire? The consequence of this would be that a fairly large percentage of the modern-day European population is essentially in this composition for a very "young" time (past 2000 years, if you will). The question is: is this plausible at all? I don't think it is, but I would like to hear your opinion.

I found in the ancestry thread of the Dodecad Project that DOD081, DOD392, DOD393 are from Galicia. The total for Northwest African, East African, Neo-African and Paleo-African is respectively 5.9%, 8.1% and 2.5%. The average for the 8 Portuguese members is 8.7%. So there is definitely a sizeable African component in Western Iberia. It's only 0.6% for the Greeks though, but they lack E-M81. My hypothesis is that E-M78 is represented under "Mediterranean".

Couldn't find anybody from Ile de France.

Thank you. The only reason I found for the fact that EM81 is more Atlantic while I2a is more mediterranean is that EM81 predates I2a in Iberia and found refuge in the western part of the peninsula when I2a people came (with the Printed cardiumpottery?).

I must say that I have speculated (non-seriously, of course) the absolute latest for the spread of E1b1b (as well as other Haplogroups), and that would be the Roman period. Imagine that E1b1b was in Italy some time in the Neolithic/Chalcolithic. At the same note, for the sake of an argument I pick up Etrusco-Romano's idea that R1b-U152 is solely Italic/Roman in origin (something I don't believe but I'm going to run with for the sake of an argument):

Is it possible that (most) E1b, just like J2 and R1b-U152 all came from Italy with spread of the Roman Empire? The consequence of this would be that a fairly large percentage of the modern-day European population is essentially in this composition for a very "young" time (past 2000 years, if you will). The question is: is this plausible at all? I don't think it is, but I would like to hear your opinion.

If E1b, J2 and R1b U152 all came from Italy, we should see more U152 in Northern Spain and more E1b in Eastern Britain.
Also note that Ile de France has more E1b than the neighbouring regions but less U152. Also, southern France (Provence, Languedoc) is the area that was the most settled by the Roman (before Cesar time) but has less E1b than in Paris.

If E1b, J2 and R1b U152 all came from Italy, we should see more U152 in Northern Spain and more E1b in Eastern Britain.
Also note that Ile de France has more E1b than the neighbouring regions but less U152. Also, southern France (Provence, Languedoc) is the erea that was the most settled by the Roman (before Cesar time) but has less E1b than in Paris.

I suppose this prettymuch proves a point. There is also the issue that U152 has more of an east-west gradient in France, not a north-south one. So yes. There prettymuch goes that.

I suppose this prettymuch proves a point. There is also the issue that U152 has more of an east-west gradient in France, not a north-south one. So yes. There prettymuch goes that.

Except that R1b-S28 is typical of Northern and Central Italy, J2 of Central and Southern Italy while E1b1b is mostly from Southern Italy. So if the Romans are responsible for the spread of these haplogroups, there will be a regional bias depending on where the "settlers" came from in Italy.

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

Except that R1b-S28 is typical of Northern and Central Italy, J2 of Central and Southern Italy while E1b1b is mostly from Southern Italy. So if the Romans are responsible for the spread of these haplogroups, there will be a regional bias depending on where the "settlers" came from in Italy.

Then how could we explain this U152 hole in central Provence. Provence lacks U152 compared to Central France. This lack of U152 isn't balanced by more E1b or more J2. And Provence is supposed to be the most romanized area of Gaul.

Then how could we explain this U152 hole in central Provence. Provence lacks U152 compared to Central France. This lack of U152 isn't balanced by more E1b or more J2. And Provence is supposed to be the most romaniized area of Gaul.

I suppose that the non-correlation of U152 and E1b suggests that indeed, the vast bulk of E1b must be somehow older. But how old, if it wasn't there in the Neolithic?

Totally desagree. It's more likely this has been listed as Southwest Asian than Mediterranean. It correlates both runs (K=10 and K=12), where this admixture (Southwest Asian) is also measurable in Iberians and other ethnic groups. At least, the Mediterranean component hasn't increased more than 2% in the spanish average in comparison with the previous run, and it's listed even far from non European groups.That means it should even get lower, not higher.

If you see some differences from a run to another it's just due to the number of components (10 before, now 12). None of the clusters mean exactlty the same, and that's more obvious checking East and West Euro. Those two have increased more the averges, so it's plain impossible that Mediterranean include such influences and the others nothing. Not reasonable.

The test of Neolithic DNA have been carried out in Central Germany, south West France and Austria. I think we need DNA samples from South Eastern Europe or Northern Iberia to find E1b somewhere.

Oh, I definitely agree. There's also a few cases (Beaker-Bell, Funnelbeaker) where ancient DNA tests only yielded mitochondrial DNA, and we all know how problematic it is to correlate mitochondrial and Y-chromosomal DNA.

Totally desagree. It's more likely this has been listed as Southwest Asian than Mediterranean. It correlates both runs (K=10 and K=12), where this admixture (Southwest Asian) is also measurable in Iberians and other ethnic groups. At least, the Mediterranean component hasn't increased more than 2% in the spanish average in comparison with the previous run, and it's listed even far from non European groups.That means it should even get lower, not higher.

If you see some differences from a run to another it's just due to the number of components (10 before, now 12). None of the clusters mean exactlty the same, and that's more obvious checking East and West Euro. Those two have increased more the averges, so it's plain impossible that Mediterranean include such influences and the others nothing. Not reasonable.

I meant E-M78 and all its subclades (V13, V12, V22, V65, etc.). The Southwest Asian component is very minor in Europe (max. 10% in the Sicilians, while Greeks have only 6.8%). Haplogroup J1 and T are enough to make up for all the Southwest Asian in Europe. Where do the 20 to 30% E1b1b from the Southern Balkans fit if not in the Mediterranean component ?

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"What is the use of living, if it be not to strive for noble causes and to make this muddled world a better place for those who will live in it after we are gone?", Winston Churchill.

Very easy, it fits in the West Asian component together with the Southwest Asian, althought the estimation is not perfect since most autosomes can be replaced easily in thousands of years. At least, that makes more sense because the West Asian is closer to Southwest Asian than the Mediterranean is in this run. Also, K=10 shows higher proportions of West Asian and Southwest Asian than the new one in all populations, it's important to keep this in mind, and wonder how is it possible that Iberians get a bit more Mediterranean in average, when according to the distances they should get less proportionally.

And there are two possibilities:

1- Most E-M78 migrants changed quite of the Southwest Asian autosomes in their way around Anatolia and the Caucassus (West Asian). Then, in the Balkans, the autosomes changed again (Mediterranean and others).

2- Admixture simply confused Southwest Asian and read the admixture as West Asian in quite cases. Some of this things usually happen when you have components very similar to each other. At Eurogenes this happened several times while trying to separate concrete regions and some people got significant amounts of admixtures they didn't expect. You can separate quite good Georgians from Saudis focussing in these clusters, but, ¿what about populations who carry substantially less of each admixture? Not so easy.

And want to remark, again, that in this run Mediterranean is more removed from the non European groups than it was before at K=10. So it means even more European than the other one named as Southern European. The names can "lie", but the distances don't. Actually, the East and the West European, are the components who have increased more the non European affinities in comparison with the Northern European cluster (K=10). That explains how Polish people who were 87-88% European before, now at K=12 show near 100% European. Time to wonder what this clusters include, since the Mediterranean is not precisely the best example to do so.

Also, you have examples of populatios with a lot of E, as the Passiegos (40%), with no connection with Africans and similar populations. So haplogroups are not a definitive answer, LOTS of factors must be considered. I don't understand such insistance in the use of haplogroups to give an answer in modern populations, knowing what this means. Genetics are not that simple.