Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority

68%

Con/Nat coalition

15%

Con choice of Lib/Nat

8%

Nat choice of Con/Lab

4%

Lab/Nat coalition

3%

Lab choice of Lib/Nat

1%

Labour majority

1%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election. ('Nat' means SNP+PlaidC)

During February, there was a slight loss of ground by the Conservatives, who on average are down about one and a half per cent, according to the pollsters. But they still enjoy a nine per cent lead over Labour, which would give them a clear majority in the House of Commons.

Also this month, the Boundary Commissions started work on redrawing the seat boundaries. This should be finalised by 2018, with preliminary proposals published this autumn. Electoral Calculus expects to have seat-by-seat analysis of these proposals once they are available. The most recent polls from the four pollsters who published polls in February are: