Those of you counting on getting your old union assembly line job back in Detroit can forget it.
The eight year forecast published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 4.19 million jobs will be gained in the US in professional and business services, followed by 4 million health care and social assistance jobs, while 1.2 million will be lost in manufacturing.
This is … [Read more...]

I knew the letter from the IRS sitting in my mail box was bad news just from the color of the paper. It was not light green, the color of a refund check from the United States Treasury. Instead, it was white, warning that it contained some sort of demand, audit notice, or threatened legal action. In fact, it was far worse than that. In the most stilted, bureaucratic … [Read more...]

There is tremendous amounts of money sitting on the sidelines. There is enormous M&A activity. The greatest thinkers in the corporate world are saying that it is cheaper to buy than to build. This says to me that the stock market still has value in it. We’re a long way from expensive,” said Milton Ezrati senior economist and market strategist for money management giant, … [Read more...]

Hello John,
I find your multi dimensional approach to markets are devoid of the usual Blah Blah Blah of most market analysts. It is very worthwhile, and I look forward to you using a lot of common sense and awareness.
That being said, regarding myself : I started trading gold in the late sixties and bought my first seat IMM at the CME in 1975 to trade currencies. I mostly trade … [Read more...]

"The Fed is not worried about inflation in the next few years and want growth first, growth second, and growth third. With the stabilization of Europe, the apparent pick up in China, and a US economy still on a reasonable footing, the Fed's heavy leaning to a growth policy should lead to a pretty favorable environment for the markets," said legendary hedge fund manager, David … [Read more...]

There’s nothing like a swift kick in the shins, a slap in the face and a good boxing of the ears to give you a healthy dose of humility. That’s how I felt when I stopped out of my long position in the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) on Friday. This is the popular ETF that rises when the S&P 500 (SPY) falls. There is nothing more annoying than getting the … [Read more...]

Once again, I am writing to you from the poolside cabana B-2 at the posh Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. It is a baking hot 100 degrees in the shade and the air is bone-dry, so I’m draining my third strawberry daiquiri for the day.
The days when I risked getting dragged out to the parking lot by some heavies to get my hands broken with a hammer for card counting at blackjack … [Read more...]

As a precondition to joining a dinner with Texas governor, Rick Perry, I had to promise many things.
I was not allowed to bring up the fact that he shoots coyotes while jogging. I couldn’t mention statistics proving that 70% of the jobs created in his state during his 12-year tenure as governor were government ones, not private.
I was not even permitted to ask what would … [Read more...]

One request I get more than any other, is to expand on my half century of international travel, provide a business, economic, and historical backdrop, and place it in today’s global context.
Shake up such a cocktail of experience and knowledge, and more than a few trading and investment ideas spill over the top. If it’s funny, that helps too.
It seems that I am one of a tiny … [Read more...]

“The barriers to Wall Street are quite low, once you have the Ivy League credentials. If you’re a certain kind of kid who doesn’t actually know anything about anything, Wall Street is still a great place to go,” said Michael Lewis, author of “The Big Short.” … [Read more...]

I had a chat with Bill Gates, Sr. recently, co-chairman of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the world’s largest private philanthropic organization. There, a staff of 800 helps him manage $30 billion.
The foundation will give away $3.1 billion this year, a 10% increase over last year. Some $1.5 billion will go to emerging nation health care and another $750 million to … [Read more...]

“If you’re early on in your career, and they give you a choice between a great mentor or higher pay, take the mentor every time. It’s not even close. And don’t even think about leaving that mentor until your learning curve peaks,” said legendary hedge fund trader Paul Tudor Jones. … [Read more...]

I know you spend all day trolling the internet for the most entertaining video on YouTube every day. What, you don’t? I’m shocked, shocked. That’s OK, so I’ve done it for you.
Click on the link below to watch a six-minute animation explaining quantitative easing to a 12 year old, using cute little cuddly figures. Was Ben Bernanke a plumber who was called to fix a pipe only to … [Read more...]

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS) and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse of the world’s food supply.
You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB) and rice.
The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects … [Read more...]

I am sitting here in my luxury suite atop the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas. The vast expanse of the southern Nevada desert sprawls out before me, stretching all the way out to the red rock mountains.
Fluffy clouds dot the horizon, and the weather is perfect. Reports say it will only be 95 degrees today.
Nearby, the flashing LED’s of the Nevada strip continue their never … [Read more...]

Fights certainly attract a different kind of crowd than, say, the Opera, the Chicago Art Institute or the PTA.
This I was reminded of on Saturday while checking in to catch my flight from the Windy City to Las Vegas to catch the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight for the welterweight championship of the world.
“Glam” was definitely the order of the day, with the men drenched in bling … [Read more...]

“Apple really has become “the” stock. People used to say “Whatever is good for GM is good for the country. Apple is now that stock. The market will continue to be a good market as long as Apple is a good stock,” said Roger McNamee of venture capital firm Elevation Partners. … [Read more...]

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depended on the judgment of Ben Bernanke, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic.
I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I couldn’t have … [Read more...]

“Though the preachers of pessimism prattle endlessly about America’s problems, I’ve never seen one who wishes to emigrate (though I can think of a few for whom I would happily buy a one-way ticket), said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet. … [Read more...]

Those who will be attending my Incline Village Global Strategy luncheon today, April 17 are welcome to join me on my daily hike afterwards. You need to do something to work off the excellent lunch. I’ll be kicking off from the trailhead at the Tunnel Creek Café off of Nevada State Highway 28. Please bring your hiking boots, hat, sunscreen, and a canteen. The weather will be … [Read more...]

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you.
According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

We have several options positions that expire on Friday, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. My bets that (GS) and the (IWM) would rise, and that the (FXE) and (FXY) would fall during March and April proved dead on accurate. Provided that some 9/11 type even doesn’t occur this week, all positions should expire at their maximum … [Read more...]

“Whenever I hear someone in finance say that a one in two billion year event just happened, I say that you just demonstrated you have a model for measuring tail risk that isn’t any good,” said former Treasury Secretary and Harvard University President Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

“There is nowhere in the industrialized world where bond markets are looking for more than 2% inflation or more than 1% real interest rates over the next decade,” said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. … [Read more...]

I am writing this to you from the veranda of my penthouse suite at the Maui Hyatt Hotel. I am sipping my fifth cup of Kona coffee for the morning. You see, the New York market opens at 3:30 AM here. On the other hand, Tokyo hours run from 3:00 – 8:00 pm, ideal working hours if surfing every morning is your priority. That explains why so many Asian oriented hedge funds are … [Read more...]

I’ll let you in on my top secret investment strategy that has brought me blockbuster results over the past six years. Listen to the Wharton Business School’s professor, Jeremy Siegel. The good doctor has been unremittingly bullish year in and year out, nearly pegging the stock index performance annually. So, when he says that the Dow Average is going to rise to 20,000 by the … [Read more...]

“The time to worry about the Fed is not when they go from accommodative to neutral, it is when they go from neutral to tight,” said Bill Miller the legendary former chairman and CIO of Legg Mason Capital Management. … [Read more...]

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Honolulu, Hawaii on Friday, April 3, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals and real estate. And to … [Read more...]

It’s time to take profits on CytRx Corp., but only if you are a trader. The shares that I first recommended in June, 2014 have just tacked on a healthy 40% over the last three weeks.
However, if you are an investor, hang on. I believe that the biotech boom in the US is only just getting started. The sector should grow from 1% to 20% of US stock market capitalization over the … [Read more...]

“We’re in a secular bull market for the dollar. …A strong dollar is a natural consequence of America emerging from a liquidity trap, while Europe and Japan are still stuck in one. The dollar is a growth stock, and growth stocks over time outperform utilities,” said Paul McCulley, formerly the chief economist at bond giant PIMCO. … [Read more...]

I have snowshoed some 350 miles so far this winter, most of it over 9,000 feet with a 60 pound pack. I’ll probably put in over 600 before the spring snowmelt, since my February Australian lecture tour is going to take a bite out of my training schedule.
So I think I’m finally getting the hang of it. It is definitely a sport of mixed pleasures. The blisters and calluses that … [Read more...]

“If the dollar stays up here, a lot of companies are going to have to re price their products. Very few firms have the pricing power of Apple,” said my friend, Dan Niles, of Alpha One Partners. … [Read more...]

Practically every day, I get emails from readers asking me to take over management of their money so I can execute my Trade Alerts for them. With an 80% success rate an average annualized return, why wouldn’t they? Unfortunately, I have to turn these invitations down. Watching the market, doing the research for new Trade Alerts, keeping up with a global speaking schedule and … [Read more...]

For those readers looking to improve their trading results and create the unfair advantage they deserve, I have posted a new training video on How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread. This is a matched pair of positions in the options market that will be profitable when the underlying security goes up, sideways, or down small in price over a defined limited period of time. … [Read more...]

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It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these pages will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Examples presented on these pages are for educational purposes only. These set-ups are not solicitations of any order to buy or sell. The authors, the publisher, and all affiliates assume no responsibility for your trading results. There is a high degree of risk in trading.