Not Again! Moderate Risk of Severe Storms

By
Jason Samenow

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center threat map paints a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the area today.

In a normal year, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) places the metro area under a "moderate risk" for severe storms maybe once or twice. But this has been no ordinary year and, for at the least the fourth time already, we're under a moderate risk for severe storms. SPC writes:

The combination of increasing instability and strong winds aloft will support the development of numerous strong to severe thunderstorms...including a few supercells [rotating thunderstorms] along and ahead of the cold front. These storms will organize into lines and clusters that will produce long swaths of damaging wind...in addition to hail and perhaps isolated tornadoes.

The SPC indicates the biggest threat with today's storms will be damaging winds -- with a 45% likelihood. Hail is also possible (30% chance) with tornadoes a lesser threat (at around 2% probability).

Because of the somewhat random fashion in which thunderstorms form, they may not affect everyone and some areas will see worse effects than others. The most likely timing for storms will between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. although the western suburbs could be affected a bit earlier and the eastern suburbs a bit later. Storms could well impact the evening commute.

Stay tuned for further updates throughout the day. See my earlier post for the full forecast through the week.

This is an awful lot of "moderate risk" for this area. Sort of reminds me of June in the Upper Midwest.

Sterling is talking about storms starting up around noon, then several waves of thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening. Later in the week we're supposed to get nice weather. My mom says it's cold this morning up in the Eau Claire (WI) area with a stiff NW wind. Hopefully this round of severe weather will calm things down for a while.

A few rumbles of thunder already in NW Montgomery. Western sky looks ominous.

Posted by: JT | June 16, 2008 11:54 AM

Well, according to the satellite images from weather.com, rain was moving close to Winchester headed towards Wheaton at around 11:15 a.m. That's probably what you encountered, JT.

I was hoping that it wouldn't storm, because I need to go to the gym after work. I don't mind the frequent storms we've had lately, but I'd like for us to be able to go at least 7 days without rain or thunder. Enough is enough already.