Michigan's snowfall forecast shows accumulations up to 14 inches

The snow system heading through Michigan late tonight through Saturday morning will spread accumulations across all of Michigan. Here's the snowfall forecast.

First off, there is some uncertainty as to how much snow will melt when it hits the ground. I feel until sunset Friday much of the snow in the southern half of Lower Michigan will melt when it touches the ground. It's what I like to call a "snow that acts like rain." Temperatures in the southern half will range between 33 degrees and 37 degrees during the daylight hours of Friday. Right after sunset temperatures will drop below freezing. Whatever snow is left to fall then will stick.

Here's the official National Weather Service snow forecast for now through midday Saturday. The total snowfall forecast combines two snow situations- the widespread snow moving through Friday, and localized lake effect snow Friday night and Saturday.

Total snow forecast through 1 p.m. Saturday, November 10, 2018

Starting in southeast Lower, I'd call it a one to three inch snow for the Detroit area, Ann Arbor, Jackson, Flint, Saginaw, Bay City, Midland and the Thumb. The far southeast corner, with Monroe into downtown Detroit may have less than one inch of snow.

As you go north and west, the snow accumulation will get heavier. The snow north and west will also be a combination of one to three inches from Friday's widespread snow and bursts of lake effect Friday night into Saturday.

I'd call it a three to five inch snow from Clare and Tawas north and west. This includes Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, Muskegon, Traverse City and northern Lower Michigan. In any of these areas I'd lean toward the lower end of the snow amounts, just because of melting.

Most of the U.P. will have at least four inches to eight inches widespread. The Keweenaw Peninsula could have up to 14 inches total snowfall by midday Saturday.

Here's a high resolution model that does a great job at snowfall forecasting.

Total snowfall forecast through 1 p.m. Saturday from the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

Compare the two forecasts- the human forecast taken from digesting all the model data, and the straight computer model. I like the model output because human forecasts tend to make too large of an area of a given snow amount. You can see how the high resolution model has some areas of lower snow forecasts.

In the end, what you need to know is it's our first widespread snow. Some areas of western and northern Lower will have a very wintry scene. Some parts of the U.P. will look like January by noon Saturday.