Blog Archives

Updated: May 11th 2018

I’m feeling a bit bittersweet today. After months of research, statistical analysis and film watching this will be my last post about the 2018 rookie class. You’ll be in capable hands with the rest of our RSO writing crew but I can’t help but feel sad about losing “my guys.” I’m looking at you Anthony Miller and Rashaad Penny. I had been a casual college football writer for years, and a fan for much longer, but the 2018 class was the first that I went truly deep on. Alas, I will probably feel the same about the 2019 class this time next year. Speaking of the 2019 class, expect to see content rolling out starting in June. I have compiled a watch list of 150 players from the FBS to Division III. I will release conference previews in the Summer, along with a way-too-early mock draft. I will also unveil a Madden-like grading system I devised as a way to quantitatively compare players across levels and positions. Before all of that though, let’s take one last look at my 2018 rookie rankings. These were updated after the NFL Draft and I have also included a write-up about some noteworthy players. Enjoy!

#3 – Nick Chubb, RB, Browns

I have vacillated on Chubb’s ranking more than anybody else at the top of my rankings. Earlier in the year I had Chubb and Derrius Guice alternating as my RB2/RB3. Immediately after the draft I bumped Chubb down to RB4 (1.04), behind Ronald Jones, due to concerns about playing on a poor Browns team that has a crowded backfield. The more I thought about it though, I decided I’d rather have Chubb because I think he’s a better player and will earn ample opportunity early enough in his career to warrant the 1.03 pick.

#5 – Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks

It was hard not to have Penny rocket up my rankings after he went 27th overall to the Seahawks. It felt like a confirmation of everything I saw and loved during the 2017 season. I tempered my excitement though for two reasons. First, Penny’s struggles as a pass protector are well known and I fear this could limit his touches to start his career. Second, the Seahawks have a weak offensive line (ranked 27th by PFF after 2017) that will test even Penny’s elite evasion. I was also building some return game work into Penny’s valuation but now that he’s a first round draft pick I doubt there’s any chance he gets to return kicks.

#6 – Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons
#7 – DJ Moore, WR, Panthers

I’m sticking to my guns here. I have had Ridley as my WR1 throughout the season and I still don’t feel he has done anything to change that for me. Moore certainly impressed at the combine more so than Ridley but it’s not like Ridley looked like Orlando Brown out there. Moore was a victim of a poor passing game at Maryland, but you could say the same about Ridley who was rarely featured. Moore will get a lot of early targets as the lead receiver in Carolina but I’d rather have Ridley’s fit in Atlanta with a top passing offense. Julio Jones will dictate coverage which should leave Ridley and his superb separation and route running skills wide open.

#20 – Bradley Chubb, DE, Broncos
#21 – Josh Rosen, QB, Cardinals

Chubb and Rosen come in as the first of their position in my rankings. IDP and QBs are always tough to rank because they are so heavily dependent on league settings and scoring. In general, for a typical RSO IDP league, I think that taking your first IDP near the second turn is a good bet; same with quarterbacks in a 1QB league. If you’re in a league featuring high IDP scoring or in a Superflex or 2QB league, you’ll need to push these guys higher by about a round. Similarly to Ridley, Chubb joins a unit where he won’t be the focus and can prosper. I’d be buying shares of the Broncos in team defense leagues, boy are they going to rack up the sacks. Rosen was the fourth quarterback taken in the NFL Draft but I think he should be the first off the board in your fantasy draft because he has the best combination of short-term opportunity and supporting cast in my opinion. Darnold and Allen may see the field just as soon but they won’t be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson and Christian Kirk. Mayfield is the wildcard if he beats out Tyrod Taylor, who the Browns spent a 3rd round pick on in a trade, because the Browns skill position players look intriguing if they all stay healthy and out of trouble.

#39 – Lorenzo Carter, OLB, Giants

I have a man crush on Lorenzo Carter. He’s a quick and lanky edge rusher who also showed the ability to drop into coverage late in the season. He’ll probably start as a situational pass rusher but the Giants will soon find that they found a gem in Carter. If you’re playing in an IDP league you can probably get Carter later than 39th overall but I wouldn’t chance it. Take him in the third round, stash him on your bench and be the envy of your league this time next year.

#45 – Ito Smith, RB, Falcons

Like Carter, Smith is a sneaky late round pick to stash on your bench. He’ll be lucky to find 50 touches in 2018 behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but once Coleman leaves in free agency, Smith will fall into a fruitful timeshare. Smith ran for 1,100+ yards each of the last three years while catching 40+ passes. Smith is strong and thick with powerful leg drive. I rated him as a B+ blocker in his class so despite his short stature he isn’t a liability in pass protection. Smith will be the type of back who earns 75% of his fantasy production in the last two minutes of each half. He’ll come on the field for his mix of receiving and protection and stay on the field while the team runs the hurry-up.

I’m not very high on either of these Packer receivers but one of them is going to emerge, it’s just a matter of which one does. There were rumors that St. Brown fell in the draft because of his “diva” personality which shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anybody who has done any research about his family. That pedigree and promise is what garnered St. Brown buzz the last two years – it certainly wasn’t his on-the-field production. Moore is shorter, lighter and slower but put up two solid seasons at Mizzou in 2016 and 2017 (60+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs). I wouldn’t recommend drafting either player, you’re better off waiting to see which one hits and then scramble to the waiver wire, but if I had to pick I would go with St. Brown for his superior physical attributes.

#50 – Mason Rudolph, QB, Steelers

I like Rudolph as a speculative third round pick in Superflex and 2QB leagues. While Ben Roethlisberger has been squawking about the Rudolph pick, let’s not forget that just a year ago he was considering retirement. I don’t think it’s a mistake that the Steelers brass decided to draft James Washington and then pair him with his college quarterback. There’s also a chance that Rudolph gets playing time in the short-term due to an injury to Big Ben. Ben has only played a full 16 game season three times in his 14 year career. If you happen to get two games out of Rudolph in 2018 when your own starter is hurt or on bye you’ll already be ahead of the game value-wise.

#64 – Josh Sweat, DE, Eagles

Josh Sweat is another IDP sleeper of mine. Sweat may not get much opportunity early in his career but he had first round talent and physicals but was available later due to his injury history. The stories about his knee injury are pretty gnarly so I would not recommend spending much draft capital on him but if you’re in a deep IDP league and looking for a long shot, he’s your guy.

#80 – Richie James, WR, 49ers

So you’re saying there’s a chance? The 49ers offense is an enigma at the moment. As a Jimmy G owner, I’m excited for what he showed late last year but I am concerned about who he’ll be targeting this year. Pierre Garcon will be back from injury but he’s old. Marquise Goodwin is back too but he’s nothing more than a complementary player in my opinion. The door is open for somebody to emerge and Richie James has as much of a chance as anybody else on the roster. James had two uber productive seasons to start his career: 107-1,334-8 and 105-1,625-12. He lost most of 2017 to injury but is healthy now and reports are that he played well at the team’s first mini camp. You’d have to be in a pretty deep league to consider drafting James but once you get past WR15 it’s a crap shoot anyway.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Updated: April 19th 2018

If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning. Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process. You can then move on to Part III and then finally to Part I once it is posted. An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.

#32 – Eagles – Orlando Brown, T, Oklahoma

If Orlando Brown didn’t attend the combine he would have been drafted higher. Instead, he did participate and promptly became the butt of many jokes on #DraftTwitter. The reason for the hate was just how unathletic Brown looked. He ran a 5.85 40 yard dash, had a 19.5″ vertical jump, a 82″ broad jump and 14 bench reps – all worst at the position. On the field though, Brown has been lauded with accolades throughout his career. He was a 2017 consensus All-American and was a finalist for the Outland Trophy. In 2015 and 2016, he was named to various awards lists as well. The Eagles have added to the defense in the offseason, trading for DE Michael Bennett and CB Daryl Worley, so I think it makes sense to go offense here, specifically the line. Starting tackles, Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are good but are not always available. Peters is 36 and has a long injury history, meanwhile Johnson has already been suspended twice for PEDs in his short career. Nobody should have been surprised that Brown is not an elite athlete, just watch some tape, but the hate has gone too far. He’s 6’8″ and 345lbs and you can’t teach size. The fact that he’s played 40 career games and is not an injury risk is just further reason to take him here and benefit from the discount his awful combine created.

#31 – Patriots – Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State

The Patriots love to go defense with their first pick and have done so every year, except 2011, since 2006. In that range, there were two high profile LBs taken, Jamie Collins and Jerod Mayo, so we know the Patriots aren’t averse to drafting the position high. Vander Esch was uber productive in the Mountain West this season (141 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 forced fumbles) but really only has one year of experience as a starter because of a redshirt and a season mostly lost to injury. If Vander Esch returned to school in 2018 and put up similar numbers, I would expect him to jump into the first half of the first round. Instead, he’ll sneak in here and unsurprisingly, the Patriots will find value with a late first round pick.

#30 – Vikings – Connor Williams, T, Texas

In most years, Connor Williams probably wouldn’t warrant being the third tackle off the board but this is not the strongest class (similar to last year where only two were taken in the first round). In 2016, Williams was a consensus All-American, improving on a freshman season that earned him freshman All-American honors. In 2017, however, he only played in five games due to injury. At the combine, Williams measured in as one of the smallest tackles so it’s possible that teams may try to move him inside. Regardless of whether he deserves to be a first rounder, I think the Vikings will feel the need to add to their offensive line to help protect their new franchise quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Centers Frank Ragnow or James Daniels are probably the best lineman on the board at this point but the Vikings are already set at the position with Pat Elflein. Chalk this one up to team need rather than BPA.

#29 – Jaguars – Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Evans is a versatile linebacker who started his career as a pass rusher and has since transitioned inside. He played very well down the stretch when the Tide needed him to be the primary inside backer due to injuries to Shaun Dion Hamilton and others. Over his last six games, Evans had 8+ tackles in five of them. Adding Evans to a starting linebacking corps of Telvin Smith and Myles Jack is almost unfair to the rest of the AFC South. Evans has a lot of potential and I think he would fit right in with the ethos of the Jaguars defense.

#28 – Steelers – Mike Hughes, CB, UCF

Per Spotrac.com, the Steelers have yet to resign four DBs from 2017’s squad. They did bring in safety Morgan Burnett from the Packers but they still need more depth. Mike Hughes is an interesting prospect. He started his career at UNC but was suspended after an alleged assault at a frat party. After leaving UNC, he became a JUCO All-American and ended up at UCF where he shined in 2017 as a junior with 49 tackles and 4 INTs. Hughes also contributes on special teams where he ranked top five in both kick return and punt return average. In addition to his one interception return touchdown, he also returned two kicks and one punt for scores. The Steelers ranked near the bottom of the league in both kick and punt return average in 2017. So, even if Hughes is unable to unseat Joe Haden or Artie Burns as a starting corner, he could add value as a nickel and a return man. The Steelers tend to use their starting receivers as returners, but it might behoove them to protect both Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster and let somebody else handle the kicks.

#27 – Saints – Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State

I really struggled with the Saints pick here at #27. I considered local edge rusher Arden Key from LSU but decided he wasn’t worth the pick. I also considered Mason Rudolph, the next best quarterback on my board, as the heir apparent for the aging Drew Brees. Gesicki was my other choice but part of me didn’t want to put two tight ends back-to-back. Once my mind flashed to Jimmy Graham back in the day with Brees and the Saints, I was sold. Gesicki is an incredible athlete and labeling him as a tight end might be a misnomer because he’s not a good blocker and will serve primarily as a receiver. Gesicki’s 2017 output at Penn State, 57 receptions for 563 yards and 9 TDs, is better than all three of the Saints’ 2017 tight ends combined. The Saints did re-sign TE Benjamin Watson for a second stint which also made me hesitate with this pick. Watson missed all of 2016 with an achilles injury but rebounded with a 61-522-4 line in 2017 as a 36 year old with Baltimore. Watson is not going to factor into the team’s plans past this season (neither will Coby Fleener whose dead cap number drops next offseason), so it’s not crazy to think that they target another weapon for Brees.

#26 – Falcons – Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Dallas Goedert is now my top ranked TE in the class. At various times over the last year, I have had Mike Gesicki and Hayden Hurst in that spot but I’ve become enamored enough with Goedert to push him up. His usage in college reminded me of Travis Kelce with the Chiefs. The team made a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands in creative ways to showcase his plus athleticism. At worst, he’s an average blocker when compared to the other top prospects at the position. That means he should be able to see playing time early in his career. I like the idea of adding him to the Falcons’ 8th ranked passing offense. I doubt the team is ready to give up on 2016 draft choice Austin Hooper, but combining Goedert with Hooper could shore up the only weakness of this offense.

#25 – Titans – Sam Hubbard, EDGE, Ohio State

Hubbard is my highest rated edge rusher left on the board. His stat line of 42-13.5-7 is not amazing but that’s mostly a factor of playing on Ohio State’s dominant defensive line where he shared snaps with a number of future pros. Hubbard played as a 4-3 end so it remains to be seen how he would fit with the Titans and new coach Mike Vrabel. Like Matt Patricia, I expect Vrabel to adopt more of a multiple scheme rather than locking into a 3-4 or a 4-3, even though DC Dean Pees prefers a 3-4. The Titans have spent heavily on former Patriot players Dion Lewis and Malcolm Butler, perhaps no surprise given Vrabel’s history in New England. The relationship between Bill Belichick and Ohio State’s Urban Meyer and Greg Schiano is well known. Since Vrabel has already shown a desire to create Patriots South with his free agent signings, I’ll bet that he continues that in the draft and targets a player who will be vouched for by two trusted coaches.

#24 – Panthers – Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

The Panthers traded starter Daryl Worley to the Eagles for WR Torrey Smith so they currently have a need at the position. Jackson led the nation in 2017 with 8 INTs, including five combined against top Big Ten foes Ohio State and Wisconsin. He has tremendous ball skills (he also had 18 pass break ups). Jackson is a converted receiver, hence the ball skills. Jackson played better in run support in 2017 as a full-time starter, totaling 48 tackles. The Panthers passing defense finished in the bottom half in yards per attempt, yards per game, interceptions and average rating so adding somebody like Jackson is a no-brainer.

#23 – Rams – Lorenzo Carter, EDGE, Georgia

(Editor’s note: The Rams traded this pick to the Patriots as part of the Brandin Cooks deal. Cowper is upset because it likely means that whatever chance his beloved Lorenzo Carter had as a first rounder are dashed. Cowper doubts whether the Pats will hold the pick but if they do, they may be hoping to grab a falling LT) This pick is my biggest reach of the first round but I love Lorenzo Carter. I introduced my readers to Carter in Week 4 when I said that he could ultimately end up with a first round grade. He put up good numbers this year: 62 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 3 fumble recoveries. He put up even better combine numbers, running a 4.50 and broad jumping 130″ at 6’6″ and 250lbs. That was the fastest time and longest jump for anybody 6’5″ and 240lbs or bigger. I was pleasantly surprised to see Carter used in coverage at times down the stretch in 2017 so I don’t think he is limited just to situational pass rushing. In time, I think he can be an every down linebacker who has exceptional length and speed.

#22 – Bills – James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

The Bills have spent heavily on the WR position recently. They traded for Kelvin Benjamin and used a second round pick on Zay Jones in 2017. Going back a bit further, they used a first rounder on Sammy Watkins in 2014 and a second rounder on Robert Woods in 2013 – neither of which is still with the team. The recent disturbing video of Zay Jones has me thinking that the Bills will need to invest another high pick on a wide receiver. Having two first rounders makes it a bit easier to do so. If they do, I think they should grab Washington instead of Courtland Sutton. Sutton is a big bodied receiver who would be too similar to Benjamin. Washington is basically a running back playing out wide. He has good speed, excellent acceleration and is a former high school track star. He lacks the size and strength to fight for contested balls but his quickness means he rarely has to if the quarterback can hit him in stride. Once he has the ball in his hands, he has good vision in the open field and often breaks big plays (he averages over 20 yards per reception for his career).

#21 – Bengals – Kolton Miller, T, UCLA

The Bengals offensive line unit is largely a group of no-name guys. Unless you’re a masochistic Bengals fan, you probably wouldn’t recognize any of the names on their depth chart, maybe aside from Cordy Glenn who was just acquired in a trade. The Bengals allowed 40 sacks in 2017, ranking them in the bottom half; their running backs averaged just 3.6 yards per carry, ranking them third worst. Adding Miller instantly upgrades the unit. The NFL.com scouting report on Miller describes him as an “average athlete.” He rejected that notion at the combine where he finished third or better among tackles in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone and shuttle. Oh, and did I mention that he came in at 6’9″ and is the tallest prospect in the class?

#20 – Lions – Harold Landry, EDGE, Boston College

New Lions head coach Matt Patricia will not run a set 3-4 or 4-3 scheme, instead he will adjust based on the matchup as he did in New England. Because of this, he will need edge rushers who can get to the quarterback regardless of their alignment. Landry fits the bill. He played as a 4-3 end at BC but he has the speed and quickness to rush from a stand-up position in a 3-4 (at the combine he had the fastest shuttle and second fastest 3-cone among DE/EDGE). In true Patriot fashion, the Lions would be getting a discount on Landry because he would have been taken higher if he came out last year after a 16.5 sack junior season. Instead, he missed time in 2017 with an ankle injury and when he was on the field he was less effective.

#19 – Cowboys – Will Hernandez, G, UTEP

The Cowboys offensive line has been a strength of the team after they spent first round picks on linemen in 2011, 2013 and 2014. The Cowboys also took a chance on La’el Collins who was a first round talent but went undrafted due to off the field concerns. Collins and 2014 first rounder Zack Martin are a formidable duo of guards but I still want the Cowboys, my favorite team, to add to the offensive line. Hernandez is the best lineman on the board at this pick so I would take him even though the team has two young starting guards. Since that 2014 pick of Martin, the Cowboys have only used two draft picks on offensive lineman (a 3rd and a 7th in 2015) so it’s time to reinvest in the position. Similar to how the Travis Frederick pick in 2013 disappointed Cowboys fans, myself included, this pick is not sexy but it would go a long way to keeping Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott healthy.

#18 – Seahawks – Marcus Davenport, EDGE, UTSA

This is the third time I picked Davenport in this mock draft. I second guessed the first two and replaced him with a different player. When I got down here to the Seahawks I felt it was a perfect pick even with Harold Landry still on the board. The Seahawks defense is in flux and two big name defensive linemen, Michael Bennett and Sheldon Richardson, won’t be there in 2018. That opens the door for a prospect like Davenport to come in and be part of the new look Legion of Boom. Davenport is a raw prospect but is very athletic for his size. When compared to other DE/EDGE prospects at the combine, he excelled at the 40 yard dash and the broad jump while putting up respectable numbers in the vertical and bench press. Davenport had a 55-17.5-8.5 line this season as a stand-up rusher. What convinced me that the Seahawks would pounce on somebody like Davenport was researching their “Leo” position. As I learned, Pete Carroll plays a modified 4-3 that features one defensive end “standing up or with his hand in the ground, and [his] sole focus is to be the primary pass rusher and wreak havoc in the backfield.” That sure sounds like Davenport to me when you watch his highlights. I don’t think he will be an every down player in the NFL early in his career but he will flash enough to get noticed.

#17 – Chargers – Isaiah Wynn, G/T, Georgia

Wynn is a versatile offensive lineman whose future in the NFL is likely at guard but he could see action at tackle or center as well. He bounced between LT and LG at Georgia but is too small to start as a LT in the NFL on a regular basis. I believe he would be a good target for the Chargers because of his versatility. Both of the Chargers’ projected starting tackles, Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale, are 30 years old. Okung has been placed on the IR twice in his career while Barksdale missed multiple games last year with a foot injury. New C/G Mike Pouncey has a history of hip injuries and played a full season last year for the first time since 2012. When you Google “Mike Pouncey injury,” one of the results trumpets the fact that the hip injury is not career-threatening. Well, that’s encouraging. Last year’s second round pick, G Forrest Lamp, missed his entire rookie season after an ACL tear. What I’m driving at is that the Chargers will very likely need to juggle their offensive line this year and having somebody like Wynn who could fill a number of roles would be tremendous. Both tackles also have smaller dead cap numbers for 2019, so maybe the Chargers can groom him, despite his smaller size, to be the team’s starting RT for 2019 and beyond.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: March 15th 2018

Back in November, I released the first draft of my 2018 positional rookie rankings. Today, I will revisit the rankings and go deeper than before (TWSS?). Before we get started, please remember that we are still early in the draft process. All of these players just completed the combine and as of this writing, none have yet had a pro day or an individual workout. We’ll likely learn more about some prospects before this article even gets published; we’ll surely know a lot more a month from now. As in November, I did struggle at times as to whether the rankings should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted. Ultimately, I am ranking based more so on expected fantasy value than predicted draft order but the two are highly correlated. I’ll post separate fantasy and NFL mock drafts in April so you’ll be able to see where the two values diverge. I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position and designated tiers. For more detailed analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper and check out my “RSO Rookie Rundown” series.

Note: this was written prior to the retirement of Adam Breneman.

Quarterbacks

My quarterback rankings are likely more controversial than my rankings at other positions. I truly believe that Josh Rosen is the most NFL-ready of the top prospects and as such I still rank him first. I don’t think he will be drafted first at that position but honestly that might do more to help his fantasy stock than hurt it. I have been low on Sam Darnold and Josh Allen since October so their rankings should come as no surprise. The more I watch and read about Lamar Jackson, the more impressed I am with him as a quarterback; don’t believe the WR narrative. I am much higher on Mason Rudolph than many analysts. He may be a little stiff but he was highly productive, excelled in some advanced metrics and was a quiet leader in Stillwater. I think Rudolph will get drafted by a team who benches him for Year One only to give him the keys to the car to start Year Two (i.e. Pat Mahomes). Luke Falk and Mike White find themselves ahead of the next tier due to their elite size and above average production. Of the rest, my picks for guys who may move up the rankings are JT Barrett and Chase Litton. Barrett was a proven winner at one of the nation’s best programs so I won’t count him out yet. Litton threw too many interceptions in college but is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the class and as such will get a shot somewhere.

Running Backs

No change at the top for me. It’s Barkley well above Guice and Chubb. Jones, Penny and Michel are the next tier and are all very close. I have not elevated Sony Michel as high as some others because I am wary of the recency effect. Michel was in the RB5-10 range all season and one great game against Oklahoma shouldn’t really change that. All of the things we “learned” against Oklahoma were already baked into Michel’s ranking. We knew he could catch the ball, we knew he was explosive, we knew he didn’t need 20 carries to make a difference, etc. To bump him higher based off that one game is essentially a double counting accounting error. Freeman (early in the season), Balage (at the combine) and Johnson (late in the season) are an interesting tier as they all flashed at different times. I’m intrigued by Balage and his combination of size and athleticism; I want to study him more and could slide him up into the third tier. Two big names that have slid down the rankings are Josh Adams and Bo Scarborough. Both concern me because of their size: running backs as tall as they are just don’t often succeed in the NFL (which is also a concern for Balage). There are three FCS prospects on the list (Martez Carter, Chase Edmonds, Roc Thomas). My favorite of that group is Martez Carter. He is short and stout and is a dynamic pass catcher. Edmonds showed out at the combine and will likely move up NFL Draft boards. I’m not a fan of John Kelly because he has a lack of production, size and speed that worries me even though he’s starting to get some buzz. If I had to pick one mid- to late-round pick that will have the biggest immediate impact in the NFL, it might be Ito Smith. Smith was a very good blocker according to PFF’s metrics and is a fantastic receiver (40+ catches each of the last three seasons).

Wide Receivers

I have had Calvin Ridley as my WR1 since the start of the year and I have not been discouraged by the mediocre stats or his middling combine performance. I still believe in Ridley’s raw ability and think that he’s the best of this class. Unlike last year, this class lacks a Top 10 talent so Ridley may be artificially moved up draft boards simply because he may be the best at a position of need. Many other analysts have either Washington or Sutton at WR1 and I can’t really argue with that. They both out-produced Ridley over their careers and each have their own athletic attributes. Ironically, both Washington and Sutton are the only two to have a teammate also make this list so maybe I’m undervaluing just how dominant they could have been on another team. I love all of the guys in my second tier and I don’t think NFL teams will go wrong with any of them. If I was an NFL GM I would probably pass on Ridley in the first and instead grab one of Miller, Moore, Kirk or Gallup in the second. All four have a similar profile: they are versatile, quick and can make spectacular catches. Auden Tate is a big, pun intended, wildcard for me because his sample size is so small (just 65 career catches). However, he has the size and body control to be a true X receiver in the league. Dante Pettis is being too undervalued right now in my opinion. Many analysts seem to have forgotten all about him. He was a four year contributor on a championship contending team. He’ll get on the field early with his punt return and run after catch ability, maybe like how Tyreek Hill started his career, and could be a late round steal in fantasy drafts. Allen Lazard has fallen far down my rankings, mostly because he just failed to impress me at points this past season. There is talk of him moving to TE which would do wonders for his fantasy value. There are three guys in the bottom tiers who are more talented than their rankings: Cain and Callaway (off the field issues) and James (injury). I ended up watching a number of Syracuse games this year and became a fan of Steve Ishmael. He had a fantastic 105-1,347-7 line while playing for a bad Orange team. He has good size and made a number of big-time catches in the games I watched him play against Florida State and Clemson.

Tight Ends

The consensus opinion currently states that Mark Andrews is the best player at the position but I strongly disagree. I did not see enough out of Andrews for me to think he could be a starting NFL tight end. I would feel much more confident drafting one of the other top four for my squad. Goedert is the most well rounded player in the group and he’s such a likable person to boot. Gesicki and Hurst are right with Goedert. Gesicki is an incredible athlete but has a wrap for being a poor blocker. Hurst is underrated because he doesn’t score much (just 3 career TDs) but catches a lot of balls and can block better than most in the class. Adam Breneman has serious injury concerns which drags down his potential – if it weren’t for his history of knee injuries he could be atop this group (Editor’s Note: Breneman has since retired from football). Tight end was a difficult position to rank for me because there were few prospects I had a great feel for. Admittedly, everybody past Troy Fumagalli is a dart throw. Chances are that your fantasy league won’t need to draft the position deeper than that but if you do, I provided a bunch of names of guys to keep on your radar. I prioritized players with either great size or great production – very few had both – and left off some players who might be selected in the NFL Draft but likely have no shot at factoring in fantasy-wise. If you have to go deeper, take the guy who gets drafted highest, regardless of where he ended up in my ranking because there’s so little between TE7 and TE13. The two at the bottom, Yurachek and Akins, are truly deep sleepers. Both are undersized, “move” tight ends who could see a hybrid TE/WR role in the NFL. Teams may be less hesitant to draft somebody of their size and speed after the success of Evan Engram in 2017.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Both of these teams have endured some coaching carousel drama over the last month. NC State’s Dave Doeren was an early target in Tennessee’s never-ending coach search but ultimately he spurned the Vols to stick with the Wolfpack. Doeren has NC State playing in their fourth straight bowl and should the team stay competitive next year he’ll probably be in the running for an even bigger job at the end of 2018. Arizona State made the odd, in my opinion, hire of Herm Edwards. Herm is a master motivator for sure but Herm has not been involved with the college game since 1989. Even more odd is that outgoing coach Todd Graham is sticking around to coach the bowl.

Arizona State’s offense is led by two NFL hopefuls in senior RB Kalen Ballage and sophomore WR N’Keal Harry. Ballage is a big back at 6’3″ and 230lbs. His size concerns me because few backs have been successful in the NFL at that height. Since 2010, only four backs have measured 6’2″ and 225lbs or bigger at the combine: Derrick Henry, Matt Jones, Dominique Brown and James Wilder. Henry has potential but he has not yet earned the starting role in Tennessee and teams may be hesitant to roll the dice on a big back like Ballage. Ballage has not handled a full load in any of his four seasons but he is a productive pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016, 19 this year). His high number of carries came this year with 153. He has under 2,000 yards in his career. I’m just not able to get that excited about him, honestly. I have read comparisons to David Johnson but I think that is crazy: Johnson was more than twice as productive in most stat categories in college. Ballage will get drafted in fantasy leagues but it won’t be by me. The other big name for the Sun Devils is WR N’Keal Harry. Harry is not draft eligible so it’s not worth a deep dive yet but you will hear his name constantly next season. He has elite height (6’4″) and has been very productive as a young receiver on a mediocre team (career line of 131-1,659-12). Add Harry to your 2019 short list now!

North Carolina State has three draft prospects that I will touch on. First and foremost is DE Bradley Chubb. I mentioned Chubb a few times in the middle of the season when NC State was looking like it could challenge Clemson for the conference title. He has 25 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career. Chubb is relentless and should be a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Sadly, he’s banged up and may miss the bowl game. On offense, QB Ryan Finley and TE Jaylen Samuels are the two to watch. Samuels is one of my favorite players of the season because he transcends position. He is listed as a TE but he’s really too small to play the position in the NFL. Instead he’ll probably factor in as a hybrid RB, FB, TE who lines up all over the field. To give you an idea of Samuels’ versatility, look at his 2017 stats: 68 receptions, 547 receiving yards, 4 rushing TDs, 72 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Samuels was the only player in the FBS with more than 65 receptions and rushing attempts. More so than any other prospect, Samuels’ 2018 fantasy value relies heavily on his landing spot. If he gets drafted by a team with a creative offense he could turn into the ultimate third down and short yardage weapon. Finley is a late round quarterback prospect that is hard for me to get excited about. He should add a few pounds to his 6’4″ frame because he’s listed at just 210lbs and may be lighter. He’s efficient and does not turn the ball over often. Finley does have another year of eligibility so we could see him come back for another season to improve his draft stock. WalterFootball.com has him as QB16 for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him as QB14 in his 2019 class. If he can show a more prolific side to his game in 2018, he could become a mid-rounder next year.

Even if it weren’t for the Sun Devils coaching distractions, I would have gone for NC State because Arizona State’s defense is so bad. Prediction: North Carolina State

I don’t care what the name of this bowl is, it’s the Rose Bowl to me. I hate the fact that with the new CFP we lose the historical tradition of some of the biggest games. The folks running the Cotton Bowl got themselves a doozy of a matchup with two Power 5 conference champions and a slew of NFL prospects. Covering each and every one of the draft hopefuls in this game is impossible – I will touch on a few but by no means is this a comprehensive list.

Let’s start with Ohio State. By now, we have all heard and participated in the debate about whether or not Ohio State should have been in the playoff. I fear that topic will be prominent during the telecast and will overshadow some of the great players on the field for the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett improved on a number of stats this season but probably hurt his chances of playing quarterback in the NFL after poor performances in three big games (against Iowa, Michigan [before the injury], and Wisconsin). I don’t have an opinion yet on whether Barrett should enter the draft process as a QB but my gut says he will. The RB duo of freshman JK Dobbins and redshirt sophomore Mike Weber was very productive (nearly 2,000 combined rushing yards and 17 TDs). Dobbins took advantage of an early, and lingering, injury to Weber to steal the lead role. If Weber comes out for the 2018 draft, I think his stock is less now than it was four months ago. He could return but it’s clear he won’t be the first choice back. Maybe he transfers, sits out a year, and dominates at a lower level Power 5 school in 2019. I listed Weber as my RB13 in November so if he does come out he’s a mid-rounder at best. The strength of Ohio State’s team lies outside of the offensive skill positions. Drafttek.com has six Buckeyes ranked in their Top 10 NFL draft prospects from the Big Ten: three defensive linemen (Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Dante Booker), one corner (Denzel Ward) and two offensive linemen (Jamarco Jones and Billy Price). I’ll venture a guess that four of the six go in the first round (Ward, Hubbard, Price, Jones) with the other two following on Day Two. The best prospect on the defense, sophomore DE Nick Bosa, is not yet draft eligible but he’d be a first rounder too if he were.

The biggest name on USC’s team is QB Sam Darnold but he has really hurt his draft stock this season. Darnold was a walking turnover in 2017: 12 INTs and 10 fumbles (7 of which were lost). Elite quarterback prospects just can’t turn the ball over that often; for comparison, Rosen (13) and Mayfield (5) combine for fewer turnovers than Darnold. Darnold is only a redshirt sophomore so he is young and still has two more years of eligibility should he decide to return to college for further seasoning. Ultimately, I think Darnold comes out and is a Top 3 pick because of the potential the he has shown. Despite his turnovers, the yardage, scoring and efficiency are all above average. He’s also an above average runner with enough speed to earn first downs when flushed from the pocket. What Darnold has that doesn’t show up in the box score is his confidence and swagger. If I had to pick one college QB to lead my team in a comeback, I would take Darnold because he wouldn’t shrink from the challenge. One negative: Darnold’s throwing motion. I noticed this in the offseason and plan on watching more film before the draft to see if it’s improved. Darnold’s favorite receiver is WR Deontay Burnett. Burnett is undersized (6’0″ and 170lbs) so he likely won’t garner early round attention but I’ve raved about him numeroustimes this season. A close size comp for Burnett would be Travis Benjamin who was a 4th round pick back in 2012. Burnett was good, but not great, this season going for 74-975-9. I started the season low on RB Ronald Jones but I came around by mid-September. He is just so quick and agile that it’s almost not fair to defenders. I was previously concerned about his size but no longer. Even though he missed a game due to injury, Jones totaled 1,486 yards and 18 rushing TDs; he added 13 receptions for 165 yards and another score. After a down game against Notre Dame, Jones ended the season strong with over 800 yards and 10 TDs in the last five games. He’s fun to watch and I am so happy he won’t be skipping the Cotton Bowl. On defense, the Trojans have a number of prospects including Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Gustin missed most of the season, and is doubtful for the bowl, but could get drafted based on a solid sophomore season if he comes out (68 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks). Smith is a prototypical MLB who has 263 career tackles and has been a big part of the USC defense for three years; according to WalterFootball.com he is looking at a mid-round grade.

Ohio State’s defense will be the best unit on the field and is strong enough to limit Darnold and Jones. I expect the Buckeyes to win in a game where they beat USC in time of possession. Prediction: Ohio State

As far as the NFL Draft prospects go this matchup is all about Louisville, let’s touch on Mississippi State first though. QB Nick Fitzgerald could be an interesting study in 2019 but I don’t think he has enough of a resume to warrant coming out for 2018, especially after a season-ending ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving. NFLDraftScout.com has him as the QB6 in his 2019 draft class. Fitzgerald will need to improve on his efficiency in 2018 because he doesn’t complete enough passes (55.6%) and throws too many INTs (15:11 ratio this season). He’s a tremendous rushing threat with 33 career rushing TDs and nearly 2,500 yards but that won’t matter to scouts if he’s missing throws. The backup QB is freshman Keytaon Thompson. I don’t think I have seen any of Thompson play this season but I am intrigued by the combination of his size (6’4″ 222lbs) and rushing ability (he played in nine games this season totaling 299 yards and 3 TDs rushing). Thompson played significant snaps in the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss after Fitzgerald went down so at least he’s not coming in cold. He rushed for 121 yards and a score but only completed 13 of his 27 passes for 195 yards. I came across the name of DB JT Gray on NDT Scouting’s website while researching potential draft prospects from Mississippi State. He has played at both linebacker and safety and his listed measureables are similar to those of Jabril Peppers who was a first rounder last year; maybe he could be a poor man’s Pepper in the late rounds. Per Pro Football Focus, Gray did not allow a single TD in coverage this year and the passer rating against him was 70.4 which is above average.

Louisville has their own DB, Jaire Alexander, who excels in those same metrics. Alexander has also shut out opposing receivers and, this is not a typo, has allowed a passer rating against of just 17.7. For comparison, a QB who had one completion for negative nine yards would have a rating of 16. Alexander allowed just five receptions on the season and ranks 5th in PFF’s “Cover Snaps per Reception” stat, meaning he is in coverage a lot and allows few receptions. Alexander declared for the 2018 draft already and is skipping the bowl so you won’t get to see him play against Mississippi State but you’ll see him playing on Sundays soon. You may be thinking to yourself, how has he not mentioned Lamar Jackson yet? You’re right I may be burying the lede but Jackson has been talked about ad nauseam on every platform this season. That includes me too: I tagged Jackson in eight of my weekly The Watch List pieces and focused on him in my preseason preview. Talk of Jackson changing position is useless, in my opinion, because Jackson will go into the NFL as a quarterback. If anything, the brief spark of Deshaun Watson this season shows NFL teams that a lightning quick deep-ball thrower with accuracy issues can still lead a team to victory. Some team will take Jackson in the first round but I don’t think I’ll be taking him in any of my fantasy drafts. Jackson’s top target is junior WR Jaylen Smith. Smith is 6’4″ and 219lbs which is great size for a receiver but it’s his speed and deep-ball ability that makes him a threat to the defense. To illustrate this, despite his size, only three of his 53 receptions came in the red zone; meanwhile he had seven receptions of 25+ yards. He totaled 873 yards and 6 TDs (he missed three games due to a wrist injury). I’m not as high on Smith as some, including our friends at Dynasty Command Center who have him as their WR5 for 2018 rookies. Jackson and Smith versus the stout Bulldog defense will be fun to watch, regardless of what you think of their NFL chances.

Iowa State had a whirlwind of a season. Get it? The Cyclones had a whirlwind…. okay, okay I’ll stop. Seriously though, Iowa State was a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. They had a number of interesting story lines throughout the season including 1) an up-and-coming head coach in Matt Campbell, 2) jack-of-all-trades Joel Lanning playing at both LB and QB in a number of games, 3) the continued emergence of RB David Montgomery, 4) the revolving door at quarterback including underclassmen, walk-ons and transfers and 5) the upset of #3 Oklahoma and #4 TCU. Montgomery is fantastic. He has good speed, is amazing at breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact and is a reliable receiver. He is just a sophomore so he’s not coming out in 2018 but there’s a chance he is my top RB next year. Leading receiver Allen Lazard is a 6’5″ red zone monster (15 of his 25 career touchdowns came inside the twenty). I think Lazard is underappreciated as far as draftniks go. I had him as WR13 a few weeks ago but will likely move him up into the WR10 range. The Iowa State defense has played well most of the season and is led by emotional leader Joel Lanning (the aforementioned former QB). As much as I enjoy rooting for Lanning, I don’t think he’ll be considered by NFL teams.

Memphis has an incredibly efficient and high scoring offense that will be fun to watch against the solid Iowa State defense. QB Riley Ferguson is a former Tennessee transfer who has played exceptionally well in his two seasons at Memphis. Ferguson throws a lot of touchdowns, completes more than 63% of his passes, has never thrown more than 10 INTs in a season and has 10 career rushing touchdowns. He’s also 6’4″; like Ryan Finley at NC State he is just 210lbs so needs to add some weight for the NFL. I think Ferguson sneaks up NFL draft boards and gets taken on Day Two. Ferguson’s top target was undoubtedly WR Anthony Miller. I fell in love with Miller in the preseason when I jokingly compared him to Antonio Brown. In hindsight that comp may have been more accurate than I could have guessed. Miller caught 92 balls for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs. Miller has unreal hands, great body control and is tough. If you watched the AAC Championship game you might recall how exhausted and banged up he was yet he was on the field and still making plays when it mattered the most. I want him on my NFL team and my fantasy team and I don’t care what pick it takes. In September, I had him at 2.02 for 2018 rookie drafts but now I would even be willing to part with a late first for him.

By the rankings this may not be the best game of the day but I bet it’s the most entertaining. The Tigers offense is just too good to stop. Prediction: Memphis

This PAC-12 vs Big Ten matchup definitely has less going for it than the Ohio State vs USC matchup but it’s still a game with some key NFL prospects to keep an eye on. Thankfully, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley confirmed back in November that he planned to play in the team’s bowl game.

Penn State was looking like a favorite to make the playoff when they were ranked #2 in late October but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State put an end to that. Even the most casual of fan knows about Barkley and I have covered him exhaustively for RSO. In fact, I tagged Barkley in thirteen different articles this season. My deepest dive on Barkley came in the preseason in my Big Ten conference preview. At some point you just run out of things to say but he was so dominant at points he just demanded to be discussed. Barkley ran the ball less this year but he increased his yards per attempt (5.5 to 5.7) and became more involved as a receiver (47 receptions, 594 yards and 3 TDs). He’ll likely be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick and will be the unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy rookie drafts. QB Trace McSorley is also draft eligible but he will probably return for another season. He won’t be able to improve on his size (just 6’0″ and 202lbs) but he can continue to improve his efficiency and yards per attempt. The pass catcher with the highest draft grade in my opinion will be TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki went for 51-501-9 this season and had one of my favorite highlights of the season when he hurdled McSorley after a touchdown. Penn State keeps track of some combine-like measureables and supposedly Gesicki ran a 4.54 40 yard dash – that is crazy good for somebody his size. I expect that number to increase at the combine, it must be the benefit of some “home cooking,” but still he’s looking at a favorable size/speed comp to the likes of Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The first round may be too early for Gesicki realistically but he’s a Day Two guy at worst. The Nittany Lions’ top defensive prospect is senior safety Marcus Allen. I researched him in the preseason and was nonplussed. I felt he needed to show scouts that he was equally as good in coverage as he is in run support. He still succeeded in run support (just two missed tackles against the run per Pro Football Focus) but he only had one interception (the first of his career) and had just two pass break-ups (just ten in his career). He’ll probably start his career as a situational player and won’t be an IDP factor right away unless he can prove he should stay on the field for every snap.

Washington QB Jake Browning finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2016 after a huge 43 TD season. Unfortunately for Huskies fans, that season was the outlier for Browning as he returned to his 2015 levels with just 18 TDs this year. His completion percentage did increase significantly this year (62.1% to 68.8%) but all of his other rate stats decreased. One of my favorite plays in football is the quick kick from a quarterback and Browning excels at that: he has 11 career punts, averaging about 35 yards per kick. The two offensive standouts are WR Dante Pettis and RB Myles Gaskin. I’ve never been a huge fan of either and I am willing to admit it is probably an east coast bias since I don’t see them play that often. I previewed Pettis in the preseason and expressed concerns that his size would limit him in the NFL. Pettis played in thirteen games each of his first three seasons so he’s avoid any long-term injuries but he is currently hurt (but probabl for the bowl game). He is a good receiver (averaging 40 receptions, 500 yards and 6 TDs per year over his four year career) but a better punt returner (9 career punt return TDs, including 4 in 2017). He’s currently my WR8 and should find himself drafted in the late second round. RB Myles Gaskin is ranked a little lower in my positional rankings (RB13) but he’s somebody that I definitely need to revisit. Gaskin’s numbers are great and if they were attached to a different name I would probably be higher on him. He rushed for 1,282 yards this season and rushed for 19 TDs. He also added 18 grabs for 228 yards and 3 receiving scores. He has been consistent, and healthy, throughout his three year career. He’s gone over 1,300 total yards each year and has 47 career TDs. He’s slightly undersized (think Theo Riddick) but not so small that he can’t play a heavy role in an NFL offense. On defense, LB Azeem Victor and DT Vita Vea are both likley Day Two prospects. Victor’s college career has been marred by injuries and off-field issues (he was suspended to start 2017 for a failed drug test and was suspended late in the season after a DUI arrest). In 2015, his only full season, Victor had 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Vea is an agile, space-eating DT who could end up going in the late first if he dominates the combine. Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports had Vea going 19th overall in his December 5th mock; Trapasso thinks that Vea may be the most physically strong prospect in the entire draft class.

Given the strength of the two defenses, I expect this one to be a low scoring affair. I’ll take the team with the best player on the field. Prediction: Penn State

The Orange Bowl may feature two Top 10 teams but I’m just not finding the matchup all that intriguing. I was down on Miami for most of the season before the team imploded against an unranked Pitt team and laid an egg against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. At least Wisconsin was competitive in their conference championship and proved that they belonged in the playoff conversation despite a weak schedule.

Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier was overrated, in my opinion, during Miami’s unbeaten run to start the season. He ranks 89th in adjusted completion percentage according to Pro Football Focus; that metric is meant to give a better picture of a quarterback’s accuracy by not counting spikes/throwaways against them and by giving them credit for drops. Per their stats, the Miami receivers dropped 22 passes, which is about average, but even after factoring those back in he is still at the bottom of the list (there are only twelve worse qualifying QBs). Rosier did rush for 427 yards and 5 TDs which helps make up for his negative plays but it’s not enough in big games. Case in point: Rosier was pulled late in the Pitt game to give redshirt sophomore backup Evan Shirreffs a shot. Shirreffs had five career passing attempts at that point so in that moment the coaches though he gave them a better shot than Rosier (predictably, Shirreffs did nothing and was replaced by Rosier). Miami lost RB Mark Walton early in the season but sophomore Travis Homer has emerged in his stead. Homer has over 1,100 total yards and scored 8 TDs. He had a big game against #3 Notre Dame (18 rushes for 146 yards) but had just 55 combined rushing and receiving yards in the late losses to Pitt and Clemson. If Miami is to stand a chance against Wisconsin’s great defense it will fall on Walton. Senior DE Chad Thomas had 30 total pressures per PFF and finished the year with 3.5 sacks. Safety Jaquon Johnson improved his stats in 2017 to end with 85 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs. Miami’s defense did get better in 2017 but gone are the days when the NFL Draft was littered with Hurricane defenders; Thomas and Johnson could be mid-round picks but I doubt anybody goes higher than that.

Speaking of defense, Wisconsin’s is a juggernaut. They are 4th in scoring, 4th against the pass and 1st against the run. They don’t have a weakness and it’s unfortunate we did not get to see them play a stronger schedule. We may never know if this was a historic unit or just a product of a soft schedule. Their leader, LB TJ Edwards, is good in both run support (27th ranked in run stop percentage per PFF) and in coverage (4 INTs). According to DraftTek.com, he’s the 11th ranked prospect in the conference and according to WalterFootball.com he’s looking at a 3rd-5th round grade. Edwards may not be a Watt brother but he’s keeping up the tradition of productive Wisconsin linebackers with initials instead of first names! The Badgers offense is all about freshman RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,847 rushing yards and 13 TDs this season and he finished 6th in Heisman voting. Those rushing yards ranked him first in the conference and third in the FBS. Not bad for a three star recruit. Taylor still has two more seasons before he’s draft eligible so we have to wait and see what he develops into but he’ll probably be on my Heisman watch list for next season. Aside from offensive tackle Beau Benzschawel, the best offensive prospect is TE Troy Fumagalli. Fumagalli has a long injury history that I discussed in my Big Ten preview, but I still like his chances in the NFL. He’s more of a traditional TE than the “move TE” that is en vogue right now so that may lower how high he is drafted. Regardless of where he is drafted, he will be on the field from day one because of his above average blocking ability. Fumagalli led the team with 43 receptions, 516 yards and 4 TDs. He has already declared for the NFL Draft but Fumagalli has confirmed that he will play in the bowl. Fumagalli may not be a fantasy factor in his rookie season but he’ll still be worth a third round pick.

I don’t have a doubt in my mind that Wisconsin will win this one. Prediction: Wisconsin

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: November 8th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

It may only be November but I think it’s time to start looking at positional rankings for 2018. I did struggle at times with these rankings as to whether they should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted. Let’s say these rankings are a composite of both ideals. I will separate out the two different mindsets in my future RSO and NFL mock drafts. I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position. For more detailed play analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper or read my weekly The Watch List pieces which have, and will continue to, spotlight future fantasy relevant players.

Quarterbacks

Rosen is my QB1 because he is likely the most “pro ready” of the prospects since he is playing in a pro-style system with good size and stats. Darnold looks likely to go back but if he does declare early he has hurt is stock with too many turnovers this year. You may be surprised to see Finley and Litton on my list. I have watched a bunch of NC State this year and have liked Finley’s ability to manage the game and limit mistakes. Litton is a big (6’6″ 233lb) three year starter whose stats have been consistent through each season (including 590 yards and 4 TDs in his two games versus Power Five opponents); no guarantee he comes out but I’m intrigued.

Running Backs

The top of my list is pretty “chalk” for those who have been paying attention to the college season so far. I did decide to put Chubb over Guice but they are so close it’s a pick’em. Adams and Scarborough fall out of my Top 10 because I’m concerned about their size; few RBs at their height or taller (6’2″) have had sustained production in the NFL. I sneak Jalin Moore in at RB15 because I think a team will take him for his pass protection skills as a great third down back; per Pro Football Focus he’s one of only a few RBs with a perfect “pass blocking efficiency.”

Wide Receivers

I have Ridley at WR1 even though he hasn’t put up huge numbers this season (or last). I like his consistency because even though the offense focuses on the run, he still has three or more receptions in all but four of his 38 career games. He also has a pedigree that few can match as he was the #1 receiver recruit in his class and had a breakout season as a freshman (89-1,045-7) in 2015. He’s slight, just 190lb for his 6’1″ frame, which I have to acknowledge as a big negative because I am critical of guys like Pettis and Burnett for the same reason. Read more about my Ridley opinion in my SEC season preview. Sills, Cobbs and Burnett landed on my list because of seasons that beat my expectations so far. I included two small school prospects in James and Wilson because I always need a sleeper to root for. Watch for Wilson, he’s going to be a training camp riser for whatever team he lands on.

Tight Ends

The top four on this list may not quite compare to Howard, Engram and Njoku from 2017 but it is a very good group and I bet they will creep up fantasy draft boards given how barren the position has been this season with injury and ineffectiveness. Jaylen Samuels is my favorite prospect in all of college football right now. He has stat lines like no TE ever before (56-474-3 receiving and 39-209-7 rushing this season) and will likely project more as a FB or H-Back in the NFL. Being position eligible at TE while getting goal line carries would be an incredible fantasy advantage. If he lands with a creative offense he will be the ultimate third down weapon. Never heard of Goedert or Yurachek? Don’t worry I hadn’t either before I started my research but both are big and productive so I ranked them over some other smaller athletic types.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com

Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: August 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason Heisman predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

Players to Watch

Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State: By now you’ve heard all about Barkley but I hope I can add to the narrative with a deeper dive into stats, measureables and film observations. Let’s start with his stats. In 2015, as a true freshman, Barkley rushed 182 times for 1,076 yards and 7 TDs; he added 20 receptions for 161 yards and a score. In 2016, Barkley improved those numbers to 272 carries, 1,496 yards, a whopping 18 TDs, 28 receptions, 402 receiving yards and 4 receiving TDs. Over his two seasons, Barkley has ten 100+ rushing yard games and five of at least 194 yards. Before you dismiss these big games as box score stuffing outings versus FCS cupcakes, you should note that eight of the 100+ games came against Power 5 teams. All five of the 194+ games came against Power 5 teams (Rutgers, Ohio State, Maryland, Purdue and USC). That’s impressive, and in fact, Barkley has not played a single FCS team (I wish all FBS teams would take this approach). So not only is Barkley productive but he’s productive against “real” teams. For his career, Barkley has a 5.7 yards per rush average – good but not great. After looking at his situational stats on CFBStats.com, I believe Barkley is about as clutch as a running back can be. Most offenses turn to their passing game when losing, but in 2016 the Nittany Lions turned to Barkley who had 11 of his 18 TDs when losing (plus 2 of his 4 receiving TDs). He’s also 16/32 on 3rd & Short in his career. Compare that to recent 1.01 picks, Fournette was 16/31 and Elliott was a crazy 31/53 (bold prediction: Barkley will catch him). Attentive readers may have noticed that Barkley had just 182 carries in 2015 (90 less than in 2016). It wasn’t due to him sharing the load, it was because of injury. Barkley injured his right ankle against San Diego State and missed the next two games. He then injured the same ankle again in the 2016 regular season finale against Michigan State but he did not end up missing the Big Ten Championship (rushed for 19-83 against Wisconsin). As far as measureables go, Barkley has a pretty good comp: Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott is an inch taller but Barkley is a few pounds heavier. Oh, I forgot to mention that Barkley is a tenth of a second faster though, at least. During Spring practices in 2015, Barkley ran a 4.38 and in 2016 he ran a 4.33. Since 2010, the only running back to run faster than 4.40 at 5’11” or taller and at over 220lbs was Knile Davis. Barkley is a rare combination of size and speed that we have not seen recently. Of course that does not mean he will automatically be a success (sorry Knile) but when you watch film of Barkley it is obvious that he will succeed at the next level. I watched his film from Rutgers and Wisconsin. No surprise here, Barkley looks like an NFL back. He runs with balance, shows a quick jump cut, has above average vision, is not afraid of contact and is competent at the goal line. As far as pass protection, it was a mixed bag but I would say he’s average at worst. He had a number of positive blocks but allowed a crunching hit from TJ Watt that ended in a lost fumble. Barkley would get his revenge against Watt though later in the game. With Penn State losing in the 4th quarter, Barkley ran a wheel route from the 18 yard line, beat Watt by two steps and caught the ball beautifully over his shoulder while getting two or three feet in. I had seen enough highlights of Barkley catching passes at or near the line of scrimmage so it was nice to see that he could be a threat further down field. That touchdown catch ended up being the winning score, but it wasn’t the last time Barkley impressed me in the game. With 52 seconds left, the Badgers were out of timeouts and the game was all but over. Barkley took the 3rd down hand off, ran right for a few yards and slid like a quarterback to stay in bounds and keep the clock running. It was a heady play that you don’t see that often in college. I purposefully watched Barkley’s game against Wisconsin since it was after his second ankle injury – I wanted to see him managing an injury. He was definitely a step slower than the film against Rutgers but he was still fast enough and explosive enough to make defenders miss. Speaking of his speed, I noted that he seems to get faster the longer he is running so it will be interesting to see his 40 yard dash splits. I’ll bet he starts slow but finishes the last quarter faster than anybody else. Come April, Barkley will likely be a Top 10 pick in the NFL draft. As for RSO drafts, I think he’ll be the consensus 1.01 much like Elliott was two years earlier.

Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin: The nine-fingered Fumagalli has a long injury history but I’m still bullish on his prospects. The missing finger was amputated after he was born due to a disorder and is not an “injury” but I think it’s an interesting story given that he has had two other hand injuries during his Wisconsin career. It seems that Fumagalli can do more with seven or eight fingers than the rest of us with ten. In addition to a broken thumb in 2015, Fumagalli suffered an ankle injury which combined to limit his production to 28 receptions, 313 yards and just a single touchdown. In 2016, he nearly missed the first game of the season after a severe cut on his hand that required surgery; he also suffered a leg injury against Georgia Southern that forced him to exit early but he did not miss further time. He ended 2016 with a line of 47-580-2. I watched Fumagalli against Michigan because I thought their defense, chock-full of NFL talent, would be a good barometer for his blocking ability. In the two seasons worth of film I have watched now, I can’t recall a better blocking TE. At worst, I would grade him as an A, if not an A+. He won’t be confused with a track star (DraftScout.com has him estimated at 4.84) but he’s not a “move tight end” so that shouldn’t hurt his draft stock. He’s an old school tight end for sure. If Fumagalli can stay healthy in 2017, a big if given the last two seasons, he should be one of the top two or three TEs drafted in the NFL but will be less desirable to fantasy owners.

Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State: Weber will be a redshirt sophomore with more injuries than seasons played. He tore his meniscus in 2015 and is battling a hamstring injury now. I watched film of Weber against Rutgers and was impressed. He looks like an NFL running back and could be the next great Buckeye back after Zeke Elliott and Carlos Hyde. In that game against Rutgers, two runs stood out. The first was a 50 yard gain where he burst through a wide open hole at the line, half-hurdled a defender and angled towards the sideline to try and get the most yards before the safety got to him; near the end of the run he had the presence of mind to change his ball carrying hand. The second example showed his pure speed: two quick cuts and gone. Weber carried 182 times in 2016 and gained 1,096 yards with 9 TDs. He also contributed with 23 receptions (just 91 yards though). I question it’s accuracy, but apparently Weber ran a 4.35 40 yard dash. With that speed and his size, we’re looking at a very nice comparison to Lamar Miller. There’s no certainty that Weber will come out after his sophomore season but if he does, based on what I see now, he should find himself with a 3rd-4th round NFL draft grade; if he comes out and officially runs a 4.35, we could be looking at somebody who would rise to the 2nd round.

Honorable Mentions:

Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa: Before starting my Big Ten preview research, I had not heard of Wadley to be honest. I first came across his name while reviewing WalterFootball.com’s prospect rankings and decided to delve a little deeper. Wadley is 5’11” and 190lbs which is worrisome. If you look at combine history, since 2010, just a single running back has been 5’11” or taller and weighed less than 195lbs (Taiwan Jones). Wadley’s stats from 2016 are impressive though: 1,081 yards, 6.4 yards per carry, 36 receptions, 315 receiving yards and 13 total TDs. Wadley had considered going pro after 2016 but wisely chose to come back to the Hawkeyes. I’ll keep an eye on him in 2017 to see if he repeats his two-way success.

JT Barrett, QB, Ohio State: Interestingly, Barrett comps very closely, size-wise, to the three quarterbacks taken in the first twelve picks of the 2017 NFL draft. He’s 6’2″ and 220lb, the same height and just a few pounds lighter than Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson. Barrett should time faster than those three though. Out of high school he was clocked at 4.79; a Sports Illustrated article about his backstory stated that he ran a 4.50; DraftScout.com has him estimated at 4.52. If Barrett breaks the 4.50 barrier, he’ll be in the Tyrod Taylor realm (4.47). Barrett has had a peculiar career arc to say the least. He was the starter in 2014 as a true freshman before getting hurt and letting Cardale Jones steal the spotlight on the Buckeyes road to the National Championship. Jones beat him out to start 2015, but Barrett eventually took the job back. With Jones gone to the NFL, Barrett was free to start again in 2016, as he will in 2017. While Barrett has had his share of adversity off the field battling for the job, once on the field he’s led a dominant team. In his 36 career games, Barrett threw just 20% of his attempts while losing; just 9% of his passing TDs came while losing. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but I think it will be cannon fodder for NFL scouts looking to knock him back. He is the product of a great team and a productive system, with a major injury in his past, but he does have some potential if he continues to progress as a passer. Barrett’s career completion percentage is 63%, he has 100 total career TDs and he has an impressive 3:1 TD:INT ratio. Enjoy Barrett while you can this season because you likely won’t see too much more of him in the NFL.

Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State: Gesicki is a big target, QB Trace McSorley’s biggest, at 6’6″ and 255lbs. He is the Nittany Lions’ top returning receiver by receptions, yards and touchdowns and set team records in 2016 for TEs in both yards and receptions. I watched film of Gesicki against Indiana and liked what I saw in the limited exposure. He is versatile and lines up all over the field: on the line, split out, in the backfield. He was a plus blocker. He’s also pretty quick. On a 3rd & 20 deep in their own territory, Gesicki caught a 45 yarder where he outran the defender and the ball, he adjusted back to the ball well and caught it with his hands. I don’t think Gesicki will be a sexy name for fantasy owners but his well rounded game should help him see the NFL field early.

Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana: The Big Ten is surprisingly light on top end wide receiver talent. I chose Cobbs to highlight because of his elite size: 6’4″ and 220lbs. There are plenty of negatives surrounding Cobbs though. After a great sophomore season (60 receptions, 1,035 yards, 4 TDs), Cobbs was suspended for the first game of 2016. Then, in game two, Cobbs suffered a season-ending ankle injury. In July 2017, Cobbs was arrested after failing to follow police orders at a concert; he declined to take a breathalyzer. Because of the off-field and injury concerns I decided not to delve too deeply into Cobbs but we should all keep an eye on him since others have been drafted highly with worse rap sheets.

Sam Hubbard & Tyquan Lewis, DEs, Ohio State: This one-two punch will be demoralizing opposing offensive lines all season long. Hubbard has 74 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks in his career; Lewis has 92, 27.5 and 16.5. Neither guy was a highly sought after recruit, both were just three star recruits, so they have worked for their success Phil Steele has Lewis projected as his #1 draft eligible DE while Hubbard is #3. If both come out, we could see both taken in the first round of the NFL draft and both taken in IDP drafts.

Marcus Allen, S, Penn State: I wanted to like Allen more than I did when I watched film of his from a monster game against Minnesota from 2016 (22 total tackles). Allen looks smaller than his 6’2″ 205lb frame and I did not note any highlight plays. He’s often around the ball but that might be more a factor of where he lines up, close to the line of scrimmage, than his ball skills or instincts. Right now, Allen is purely a run supporting free safety; he has zero interceptions in his 36 career games. Allen had an impressive 110 tackles last year but needs to improve in coverage to get a true NFL look. If he adds 10-15 pounds he could instead project as a linebacker-safety tweener similar to Jaylon Smith or Telvin Smith. Best case, he improves or bulks up and finds a clear role on an NFL defense. Worst case, he’ll be like TJ Green who was drafted by the Colts in the 2nd round out of Clemson in 2016 with a similar size and stat profile. Not sure who TJ Green is? Exactly.

Billy Price, G/C, Ohio State: Price won’t be the highest player selected on this list in the 2018 draft but I’d bet that he is the first to contribute in a meaningful way in the NFL. Price has good size for a guard or center at 6’4″ and 312lbs and could probably fill in at RT in a pinch. He has 41 career starts combined at LG and RG. In 2016 he was a Second Team All-American, improving on his Second Team Big Ten campaign of 2015. For 2017 he’ll move inside to C, taking over the spot vacated by All-American Pat Elflein who was drafted by the Vikings.

Storylines to Watch

Versatile Big Ten OL Will Dominate Day Two of the NFL Draft: It was interesting to find so many versatile Big Ten lineman at or near the top of the various rankings resources I consult. At this point, I don’t think any of these guys will come out with first round grades but some could creep up as often happens with offensive lineman, quarterbacks and pass rushers as we get closer to April. The aforementioned Billy Price should pace this group. He’ll be joined by Michigan’s C Mason Cole. Cole played at LT in 2014 and 2015 but moved to C for 2016 (a move you don’t often see). Michigan State’s C/G Brian Allen is undersized at 6’2″ and 304lbs so he’ll project as a center at the next level. Allen’s brother Jack is already plying his trade as a backup center with the Saints. Wisconsin has a pair of junior guards in Beau Benzschawel and Michael Dieter who have starts at LG, C, RG and RT between them. One, if not both, of them will emerge and hopefully follow in the footsteps of departed All-American Ryan Ramczyk, who snuck into the first round at pick 32.

Rowing the Boat in the Land of 10,000 Lakes: PJ Fleck has moved on from Western Michigan to Minnesota where he will continue to “Row the Boat.” Interestingly, he had to agree to donate $10,000 a year to WMU to continue to use the catchphrase which the school smartly licensed during his tenure. Fleck has a ho-hum 30-22 career record but was a stellar 13-1 last season. The Broncos perfect season ended in a close 24-16 Cotton Bowl loss to Wisconsin. The good news for the Gophers is that Fleck’s squad beat two other Big Ten teams last year (Northwestern, Illinois) so he should be comfortable with the level of competition; both wins were on the road. The non-conference schedule is easy (Buffalo, Oregon State, Middle Tennessee) so Fleck’s measuring stick will be conference wins. Minnesota has not had six conference wins since 1973, so if he can get the Gophers to that mark (five in 2016) they’ll erect a monument in time for the 2018 season.

Indiana Will Win 8 Games: This might not be the boldest of my predictions this preseason but it would be surprising for a lot of fans to look and see Indiana competing in the Big Ten East. The Hoosiers, like the Gophers mentioned above, have not had too much success over the recent decades. The last time Indiana won eight games was 1993 and it’s only happened three times since 1980. Former defensive coordinator Tom Allen takes over as head coach. Indiana had its best defense in years in 2016 (for example, they were 45th in the FBS by yards per game in 2016 versus 121st in 2015) so that continuity will be good for the team. Speaking of continuity, BTN put out a stat that caught my eye: Indiana returns 93% of their defensive production from last year. They don’t specify what exactly “production” means but I presume it’s at least counting tackles if not sacks and interceptions. That huge percentage puts them first in the FBS; second best in the conference is Northwestern at 77%. The biggest name on the defense is senior linebacker Tegray Scales, who had 126 tackles and 7 sacks last season. The non-conference schedule is soft (Virginia, FIU, Georgia Southern) and two of their three conference crossover games are winnable (Illinois and Purdue; the third is Wisconsin). I think the ingredients are there for the Hoosiers to win eight close, low scoring, games.

Games to Watch

August 31, Ohio State at Indiana: I love seeing a conference game this early in the season. If Indiana is to hit the heights I have predicted above, they will need to grab one big upset win against the likes of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan or Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are the best team of that bunch but if there’s ever a time for Indiana to steal a win against Ohio State it would be now. I’m not predicting an upset here but I expect a closer game than the Vegas line will be and would not be surprised if Ohio State gets caught looking ahead to Oklahoma.

September 30, Iowa at Michigan State: MSU is in full-on reboot mode. They were a disappointing 3-9 last year and lost a lot of players. Per Phil Steele’s experience research, Sparty is 117th in the FBS in terms of returning lettermen. Maybe a fresh start is a good thing, but more likely it spells another long season for Mark D’Antonio. This contest against Iowa will be a good early season test. It’s the first conference game for Michigan State and they will be hosting an Iowa team coming off a tough game against Penn State.

September 30, Northwestern at Wisconsin: Northwestern has the best chance of the rest of the West to topple the Badgers. They are an experienced team that returns a solid nucleus on offense, including a 1,500+ yard rusher in Justin Jackson and a 3,000+ yard passer in Clayton Thorson. I give Northwestern a shot over Nebraska based strictly on the experience – the Cornhuskers lose their top passer, rusher and receiver on offense as well as their top three tacklers. Every conference game is technically a “must-win” if you want to win the division but the Wildcats don’t have a prayer if they don’t win this one on the road.

November 25, Ohio State at Michigan: The Game has not been much of a rivalry lately despite its historic connotations. Ohio State has won 14 of the last 16 games between the two giants since 2000. Last year’s game was a classic which went to overtime; the Buckeyes were aided by a questionable 4th & 1 call that could have sealed the win for Michigan. Admittedly I am a Michigan fan and will be rooting for the Wolverines in this one but I don’t think they stand a chance. There’s a reason I haven’t mentioned Michigan much in this preview: they were decimated by the NFL draft. Quarterback Wilton Speight returns but he’ll be surrounded by underclassmen on both sides of the ball. By my count they lost at least ten key contributors from the last two 10-3 seasons. If Michigan can pull off the upset it will be one that both fan bases will remember for years to come. Ultimately, I don’t think it will happen and this game will simply be another stepping stone for Ohio State on their way to the CFP.

Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com

Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.