Giant puzzle: What’s happening to Tim Lincecum?

-When someone links to an item of mine, I occasionally see it come up on my blog page and, if I’m curious, take a look to see how the item is being spun.

The response to this slight criticism of Bochy/Sabean from a few days ago, picked up by the McCovey Chronicles, makes me laugh mostly because of the rage references to me in the comments section.

I especially enjoy the commenter who brings up a question to Patrick Marleau (!) that somebody else asked during the Sharks’ playoff run and that I transcribed, and that Marleau responded to… again, not to me, since I didn’t ask the question. But I get all the fun comment response directed at me. How lucky can a guy get?

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That is something. If I’m going to get rage for that, I probably should get full credit for all those mean questions I asked Nixon during the ’70s, my grilling of Kaiser Wilhelm to precipitate World War I and that dogged second-guessing of Galileo back when I was a bit younger.

-On Lincecum: His velocity’s down and it looks like he’s adjusting his delivery just a bit to try to compensate or add some mph, which has further put things out of whack.

Lincecum even alluded to work with the Giants conditioning staff when he was asked about his velocity. The more I think about that, the more I wonder if he’s gotten himself into some major mechanical issues.

I think this is a little blip in a great career. But I also thought he was going to pitch tremendously yesterday, and it didn’t happen.

For those asking about the Giants’ pitching coach: Dave Righetti wasn’t available in the Giants’ clubhouse after the game, at least that I saw, and I stayed in there for 45 minutes or more.

—-the column/

How is this happening? Tim Lincecum’s face was ashen, his voice was hushed, and he sounded just as perplexed as everybody around him.

?

How is this happening

Lincecum had no easy explanation about his recent slump and had too much pride to pretend otherwise.

All he could do was stand there, in the wake of his fourth consecutive laborious outing in the Giants’ 4-0 loss to Colorado on Monday, and acknowledge the glum reality.

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Lincecum is the Giants’ essential player, and right now his essence is shockingly mediocre.

“Obviously, I think the most frustrating thing for me is that I’m continuing to struggle here,” Lincecum said quietly after lasting only 5﻿2/3 innings and losing his duel with Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez.

“It’s kind of hard to find my way out of it. I tell you guys all the time I try to take a little bit away from every game … try not to sit too much on the negative.

“There’s too much negative going on right now.”

He didn’t need to say it, but Lincecum knows that so much of the Giants’ psyche is tied to his presumed dominance. When he roars, the team percolates with energy.

But when Lincecum struggles, the mood in the clubhouse ebbs, and the Giants seem very much like a run-of-the-mill team.

“He’s our best pitcher, one of the best pitchers in the National League,” Pablo Sandoval said. “He’s won two Cy Young awards. He’s tough. He’ll keep fighting.

“Next thing, he might win 10 in a row…. He’s one of those guys. He likes to fight. He doesn’t have his control right now, but he’ll get it back.”

So what’s going on here? After a blistering beginning to 2010, Lincecum has seen his ERA rise from 1.76 in mid-May to its current 3.14 and has walked five batters in each of his past four starts.

On Monday, two of them were intentional walks, issued after Lincecum went to 2-0 counts, but Lincecum was unquestionably iffy with his control throughout the game, once again.

Specifically, Lincecum seems to be having trouble spotting his fastball, and he definitely is experiencing a loss of velocity from his first two seasons.

He started Monday hitting 94 mph on the stadium radar gun, which is speedier than Lincecum has been in a while. But a grueling 32-pitch second inning seemed to drain some of his zip, and Lincecum was down to 88 a few times by the time he reached the middle innings.

So that means he can’t use the fastball to dominate the strike zone or, if he keeps missing, even to set up his changeup.

Lincecum says he’s physically fine and that the problems are with his rhythm, which, given his complicated delivery, can be a good thing (this will happen to him occasionally) and a bad thing (but he could get stuck in this for a while).

“I went through struggles like this a little bit in my first year, like a stretch of three starts,” Lincecum said. “But this is just a little bit longer than I was hoping it would be.”

After Lincecum’s previous scattered outing, Giants manager Bruce Bochy made a point to call Lincecum in for a private sit down, just to make sure he was OK. This time, Bochy said there was no need for a meeting with his ace.

“I thought it was a better outing,” Bochy said. “I think he’s close. Really, I think he’s getting better with all his stuff.”

But feeling good about marginal improvement is not Lincecum’s style, never has, and probably never will be, as long as he remains in a uniform.

Afterward, Lincecum said he realized he had very little margin for error going up against Jimenez. That came to bear especially in the second inning, when he gave up a two-out, two-run single to Clint Barmes.

Once those two runs scored, the entire stadium sagged more than a little, and Lincecum did, too. Lincecum the invincible “… was mortal again.

That’s part of this equation, no doubt. He puts incredible pressure on himself to be great and has been great so often in his young career.

He will be great again, almost certainly. But until that happens, the wait will be torture, Lincecum’s face will be ashen, and the entire Giants universe will keep asking one question:

Bruce Jenkins told me that pitch counts are for wimps, so it can’t be that.

Matt H

From what the pros say, it’s a lot easier to pitch when you’ve got some runs on the board. If offense cant out anything up, then ALL the pressure is on the pitching staff to keep the lead manageable. The greats in the game know how to respond bc theyve been doing it for years, Tim is still a very young pitcher learning the ropes.
Its not like Randy Johnson didn’t have some off stretches of the season in his early career.

Stan…

With the Giants offense-he will never win ten in a row. He’s lost three games by bullpen and like Cain last year who saw start after start lose 1-0 -2-1, sort of gave up. He’s not as good-and being overly thin is hurting his velocity- but seeing every single game as being a must near shutout to win has to wear even his mind down. Posey,Freddy and Burrell could make the Giants decent again. And cut that useless welfare for the rich bum, Rowand. He and Byrnes can water ski for decades with the money they’ve stolen.

Stan…

..and those two can invite JaMarcus to the party of thieves.

baysportsblood

Interesting that the Giants gave him the 2 year extension in arbitration rather than backing up the money truck on a 7 year deal. I still claim they’re being cheap and going to lose the face of the franchise, but maybe they knew something? Also, interesting that a superstar of Lincecum’s magnitude can fly so far under the radar in SF and yet he get rattles at the very relaxed media out here. He may want to consider that if he decided he wants to sign with a big club/big pressure situation. In NY and Boston he would have to answer everyday why he wasn’t winning every start rather than softball “what do you think is wrong” questions out here.

Jon

146.0
227.0
225.1

Innings pitched, by year. From a coach who loves to run up his pitch count on a game-by-game basis.

People said this would happen. It’s happening. Maybe it’s a short dead arm period.

Then again, Barry Zito threw 768 innings and by the time he was 25. From 22-25, he went 61-29, 3.12. Since an age 26 season where he was clearly off and went 11-11, 4.48, he’s 78-79, 4.21.

I dunno what Kawakami’s position on any of this is, but old-schooly types like Jenkins love nothing more than to scoff at the idea of “babying” pitchers. But there it is.

Pitchers break down. They break down faster when you overuse them. The exceptions to the rule usually either make the Hall of Fame or don’t have the stuff like Lincecum’s that puts strain on an arm (Jamie Moyer, Mark Buehrle, Greg Maddux).

How is this happening? The same way it’s happened to countless pitchers before him.

Raven

if the offense would score more runs for him or if the bullpen haven’t blown 3 of his games when he left with the lead.

this would be a non-issue.

Grey Warden

I think I know what it is. The length of his hair is weighing/slowing him down. Timmay, get a hair cut! lol

SNL Trebek

Seriously, people are panicking about Timmy’s velocity for nothing. It’s not velocity, it’s his command that’s killing him right now. He’s having trouble throwing his fastball for strikes. All good pitchers pitch off of their fastballs. If you can throw strike one and establish the zone, the curveball, changeup, etc. fall into place.

Tim Fan

How does the velocity of his fastball compare to last years? Are hitters now realizing the fast ball is not as good as its been and are now laying off the nasty change up? Is this why his walks are going up? Give us some stats and info on what is happening.

Where’s the reporter analysis?

Grey Warden

In addition to his hair slowing him down, it probably gets in his face when he pitches and affects his accuracy. Get a haircut! lol

The Wisdom Cow

TK, the reactions make for a column in itself, a compare and contrast piece, a few come to mind.

You could compare (a) the stranglehold the Giants organization has on so many in the media as to make criticism such a rarity to (b) the Warriors, lol.

Or

You could compare (a) the Giant fans’ complacency with an older borderline playoff team that will never improve year to year to (b) the Warriors. [they really are not that different lately.]

In each case, marketing has trumped logic (no surprise there), and fans give money for sub par product and executive decisions. It took so long for people to really see Cohan for what he was even with the media teeing off. The Giants are much smarter than the Warrior brass, and fans will keep eating Sabean’s product as long as he’s serving it.

Stan…

KNBR even here on Tims blog is uncritcized by the host. Never a bad word. Thats the power I write about on the Giants,KNBR,Comcast media complex. I wrote that a few weeks ago about their stranglehold on local sports and influence..used that term too. What a surprise in going back on Leslie Griffiths blog of near last year to find she had written about that same aspect only she focused on the news side. Questioning minds think alike.
Damon Bruce bucked the trend regarding the Giants…and despite being their most respected host has been banished to 1050..no mention by Tim as to why. He never questions KNBR and 50,000 watts. And to think that TC Firehouse is being favored over Bruce is a real head scratcher why Tim says nothing.

Stan…

The power of those comglomerates is so strong their isnt a single regular column on what on air people say in the papers sports pages and dot com sites they run. Except for the peoples blogs.
Hail the first amendment!

Steven

Tim Lincecum is still having a good year he’s 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA
maybe it’s not as good as he did last year but it’s solid. I’m an A’s fan and we’d take those numbers any day.

Woody

Timmy’s the one guy on the Giants I don’t worry about. He’ll turn it around.

RM

I tend to agree that it isn’t his velocity that’s the issue, but rather his control. He’s never been able to hold a runner on, and this combined with high walks in five straight games and the Giants typically anemic offense has hurt him badly. Even given this recent slump, the kid could very easily be 9-2 right now with better offense and relief.

Perhaps his biggest detractor is how easy he’s made it all look up to this point.

Stan…

One great example-Who at KRON is being paid off under the table to tell Radnich-”Sure,you can leave our newscast and do the Giants pregame for our competition for ratings-we dont need the money-on the surface-hee -hee- at KRON.” A station that does bathtub and window shudders interviews in the middle of its newscast…lets Radnich moonlight on THEIR time?
And if KRON is being paid-what are the news ethics?
Well,I wish I could tell you all..but I’m just a blogger and the paid reporters just wont tweak KNBR let alone expose it.

This is bush league stuff. I mean, this makes Rusty Simmons look like Lowell Cohn circa 1985.

I mean, the BEAT WRITER tells the fans to back off Rowand.

This needs to be addressed TK.

Take it away my friend.

Tap

Give the kid a break, he’s human. I think he is trying too hard and also losing his focus.

He is too good not to bounce back.

dale18

Unforunately, KNBR has a monopoly on most SF Bay Area teams (Giants, 49ers, Warriors, etc). That idiot Mychal Urban even said after a bad Sunday Giant loss that he didn’t want to listen negative comments about the Giants’ performance. Mychal Urban and Marty Lurie intimately know Barry Zito (from when they covered the Oakland Athletics) and are friends (and shill/pimp) for Barry Zito constantly. They constantly excuse his poor past performance and praise his present above mediocre results.

lakititi

this is what happens when you underpay a guy. he will underperform.
i know. i do this every day until they give me my freaking pay raise.

http://www.robertphoenix.com dominmatrix

I think Lincecum has something going on that is north of Dontrelle Wills and south of Billy Koch. Koch had to retire because he lost velocity off of his fastball and could not spot pitches. He claims he has Morgellons, a mysterious disease that impacts many functions of the body, including neural and muscular pathways. Willis seems to be going the same way. Kalil Green has fallen prey to something similar. Joey Voto had to sit almost an entire year due to dizzyness and vertigo, again symptoms of Morgellons and it’s subset disease, Lyme.

Read up on Morgellons and chemtrails and ask yourself if an athlete spending the bulk of their time outdoors might be more prone to this than others.

Stan…

Lincecum has a eating disorder. People already have forgotten his being hospitalized for “deyhydration”..Sure his velocity is down,when your not eating-your weak. You can see how skinny he is…but I’m the only one to say it.

Calvin

You should talk to Dr. Mike Marshall, NL Cy Young Award winner in ’74. He predicted on his Web site that Lincecum has a terrible pitching motion and is slowly tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. I think that is the case, and the decrease velocity is showing that. Remember Tim Hudson? He never felt any pain before he tore his.

Jon

Fangraphs.com is a fun website. You guys should check it out.

Lincecum velocity by year:

93.6

94.0

92.4

91.2

What that roughly 3-MPH drop in velocity from 08 indicates that he can’t blow guys away anymore and has to use his other pitches (which, again, we can verify! Behold the power of the internet:

07 Fastball Thrown %: 66.3
08: 65.5
09: 55.0
10: 37.4)

He’s compensated for that by using a two-seamer significantly for the first time in his pro career, probably because a two-seamer gets more movement and if you don’t have velocity, movement helps.

Lincecum’s a good, smart pitcher though. So he’ll probably learn how to make due with less velocity and still be an elite pitcher (that change-up and curveball are still, of course, nasty).

But this is what happens when you overuse pitchers. They break down. They lose velocity. He might not ever get hurt, but the days of him poppin 100 are long gone. And probably 97.

It ain’t rocket science guys.

Jon

Oh and I meant to add:

You guys are talking about how it’s his command and not his velocity – well, you don’t start throwing a two-seamer for the first time in your pro career with pinpoint accuracy. His walks are up because he’s adjusting to a new pitch that he doesn’t have command of yet……which he’s throwing because he’s lost velocity.

It all starts with the velocity.

Kyle

I can’t believe how bad I feel because of Timmy’s bad outings. I guess I am first and foremost a Lincecum fan. I root for the Giants because that’s Timmy’s team. I agree with Stan.. Timmy is too thin. He should do what Pablo does, eat.

fred

Jon is right – Lincecum has been worked too hard for a sub-25 yr old who weighs 150-160 lbs. Its why the lasted as long as he did in the draft – scouts were afraid he wouldnt last. Timmy has already proved them wrong to a large degree, but he cant keep going to 110-120 pitches.