Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 10 Prospects

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Weaknesses: Command can get loose; grades in the fringe-average range at present; loses fastball movement up in the zone; tendency to cast changeup with slower arm speed; has yet to dominate despite three well above-average offerings.

The Year Ahead: Cole is ready for the ultimate test, and his arsenal is more than robust enough for success right out of the gate. His command needs to be refined, as does his changeup and arsenal utility (sequence), but not many arms in baseball can brag on three well above-average offerings and a prototypical body used to deliver that arsenal. Adjustment is the name of the game in the big leagues, as high-level hitters can hit high-level pitching, so Cole will need to learn to pitch with touch as well as torch. The total package could be elite, the rare no. 1 starter that every team in baseball covets, yet only a few are lucky enough to control.

What Happened in 2012: Progressing slowly and steadily on his path to the big leagues, Taillon logged 142 innings in 2012, spending the bulk of the season in the Florida State League, where development took priority over dominance.

Strengths: Big, strong frame; long arms/leverage; fastball works in plus-plus velocity range; shows good movement to the arm-side; impact pitch; curveball is major-league-quality out-pitch; thrown with velocity and two-plane break; thrown for chase and for strikes; pitches with purpose; attacks in the zone

Weaknesses: Changeup is behind rest of arsenal; can get too firm; lacks feel/gets deliberate in delivery; lacks plus projection; throws strikes, but overall command is fringe at present; arm action shows some length; needs to finish with more consistency/work lower in the zone to take advantage of height/plane.

Fantasy Future: Classic power pitcher profile, with two plus-plus offerings and a body built for a heavy workload. His floor is an innings-eater, with a ceiling of a high-end no. 2 starter of a championship-level team.

The Year Ahead: Taillon has only three Double-A starts under his belt, but he was flat-out nasty in those starts, and he looks to continue that success in 2013. The changeup can play, but has a lot of room to improve, and the delivery has some rough edges to iron out, but Taillon’s plus-plus fastball/curveball combo should push him to the majors by the end of the season. He might not have Cole’s ultimate upside, but there are some industry sources that still prefer Taillon to Cole.

What Happened in 2012: Polanco went from a raw complex league player to a legit full-season league prospect in short order, hitting for average and power in the Sally League while showing the necessary defensive skills to stay up the middle.

Weaknesses: Swing can take slow path into the zone; can load hands beyond back foot; needs to stay short and quick to the ball; some concerns about coverage of inner-half/susceptibility to velocity; power potential is subject of debate; shows swing characteristics for power, but sources put future utility grade in the below-average range (4); conscious power approach could open holes against better pitching; still raw with reads/routes in center.

Fantasy Future: Projects to stay up the middle, with enough bat to hit for average and show good secondary skills for the position; has the speed to steal some bases and the raw pop for extra-base hits. Could be high-end player for position.

The Year Ahead: Pop-up prospects are always under the microscope, which can encourage observers to scout for weaknesses rather than scouting for strengths. Polanco is legit, but the swing will eventually be tested by better pitching, and the length he showed in Low-A can lead to exploitation as he moves up the ladder. His overall game needs refinement, but he has the raw tools to develop into a first-division talent at a premium spot on the diamond, which not only makes him the top position prospect in the system but a player likely to remain on prospect lists going forward.

Fantasy Future: Big fastball and big pitchability; has potential to pitch near top of a rotation; might not always look pretty, but will get outs.

The Year Ahead: Heredia is set to make his full-season debut, where he will continue to work to establish his fastball while bringing more secondary offerings into the sequence. At this stage of the game, Heredia’s arsenal development is paramount to his production, and when pitchers are trying to refine immature offerings, their stats can take a hit. If the curve can do more than just spin, and the changeup can continue to grow into a monster pitch, Heredia has the potential to move up to the top of this list by next season. The world knows about the size and about the quality of the fastball. Now it’s time for him to show everybody what else is in the bag.

Weaknesses: Lacks clear projection at shortstop; arm is only average; feel for position called into question; lacks defensive effort; multiple sources suggested he was a better fit for second base or left field; swing has some miss; will expand and roll over off-speed; can sting a ball, but doesn’t project to be big power threat.

Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player

Explanation of Risk: High risk; defensive profile puts more pressure on bat if he can’t stay on left side of the diamond.

Fantasy Future: Could be above-average force at second base, with ability to hit for average, steal bases, and show surprising pop for his size. Might not develop into big over-the-fence threat, but could still hit 10-15 home runs and 25-plus doubles at maturity with 15-plus stolen bases. That’s a monster player.

The Year Ahead: As with Polanco, observers will rush to the fields to see if Hanson’s 2012 breakout was really a breakthrough. Based on the industry response received while researching this article, it seems as if Hanson is destined for the keystone because of his less-than-ideal arm strength and less-than-ideal defensive focus (at present), but until the move is made, he will continue to get reps at shortstop and the argument over the projection will give talent evaluators something to debate. The bat has the juice to carry him regardless of his defensive role, but what could be an all-star at shortstop won’t look quite as fantastic if he moves to the right side of the diamond.

The Year Ahead: Bell’s career got off to a bumpy start, but he looks to make a fresh start in 2013, most likely returning to the Sally league to re-ignite his development. With projectable offensive tools that came at a lofty price, Bell will be expected to produce and live up to the hype, which will only add pressure to an already pressure-filled process. Despite the small sample size, questions about pitch recognition and offensive utility exist, and if an extended look doesn’t soothe these concerns, Bell’s stock will plummet and prognosticators will be quick to forget the promise of the boom in favor of the reality of the bust.

What Happened in 2012: Complex league numbers offer very little useful information, but the 18-year-old Texan showed legit offensive promise with the bat, making hard contact and showing a good overall approach in the box.

Strengths: Impressive raw power in the bat; creates quality bat speed; quick hands; feel for contact; has a plan at the plate; plus arm strength; good footwork behind the plate; gets into good throwing position quickly; impressive pop times (1.85-1.95); tools to stay behind the plate; plus makeup.

Weaknesses: Still new to catching; raw; limited professional sample against quality stuff; hit tool lacks big projection; some questions about swing mechanics/timing hitch; well below-average speed.

Overall Future Potential: High 5; solid-average regular

Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; new to catching; will play 2013 season at age 19.

Fantasy Future: Could develop into well-rounded backstop, with 15-plus-homer pop and above-average catch and throw skills.

The Year Ahead: Mathisen is still a very raw product, but the tool package gives him a major-league ceiling. The receiving skills are unrefined, but the arm is plus and the footwork is ahead of the age/experience curve; the bat has some power projection, and the overall approach to the game receives praise. It might be a slow process with bumps along the way, but the skill-set is very promising.

What Happened in 2012: Glasnow made his professional debut, looking strong in the Gulf Coast League and missing barrels on the back of a steep fastball.

Strengths: Very tall; big projection; fastball routinely worked at 89-93 mph and showed a spike to the plus range (92-94) during the short season; creates excellent angle and plane to the plate; pitch shows potential for additional velocity spike; very fast arm; good feel for his delivery; can repeat and throw strikes; curveball flashes above-average potential; shows big vertical break and some depth.

Weaknesses: Changeup is below-average and yet to receive developmental spotlight; command is fringe (present); delivery works, but needs to stay over ball and finish; tendency to slip under curve and lose bite; body still in the process of maturing; needs to add strength.

Overall Future Potential: 5; mid-rotation starter

Explanation of Risk: High risk; short-season arm with big space between present/future.

Fantasy Future: At maturity, should have body/delivery to log innings and fastball/curve to miss bats; workhorse profile.

The Year Ahead: Glasnow received a lot of love from sources familiar with his projectable arm, with plus potential grades thrown on the fastball and the curve. With improved strength and stamina, Glasnow should be able to hold plus velocity deep into games and use his sharp curve to miss bats. It’s important to continue building arm strength through four-seam repetition, especially at this stage of the game, so it might take another season or two before the secondary offerings take big steps forward.

What Happened in 2012: The Las Vegas native made his full-season debut, making 27 starts and logging 127 innings and helping to reinforce his projection as an innings-eating workhorse.

Strengths: Big, strong frame; simple delivery that he repeats; good plane to the plate; fastball works in the low-90s with some sink; pitch has additional projection and should be comfortable plus pitch; changeup shows good action and comes out with fastball arm speed; pitch has above-average projection; good command profile; throws strikes and shows some feel within the zone.

Weaknesses: Curveball is behind the pack; will offer tight rotation and heavy vertical break, but then go soft and lose bite; currently below-average offering; fastball lacks punch to work up in the zone; was hittable when elevated.

The Year Ahead: If Kingham can take a step forward with the curveball, he could really shine in High-A and climb up this list. He has a big, strong body already and some projection left in the tank, so the raw stuff could tick up. He throws strikes, has a good overall feel for pitching, and looks like a future major-league starter. The ceiling isn’t crazy, but the floor will keep him in the prospect mix even if the stuff stays the same.

What Happened in 2012: the 45th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Barnes jumped to the New York-Penn League after signing, showing an advanced approach to go along with some loud tools.

Strengths: Plus athlete; 6 run; good range and recovery speed in center; plus bat speed; hips show good rotation and hands good explosion; legit power in the bat; 5/6 projection; has a plan at the plate; makes pitchers work.

Explanation of Risk: High risk; hit tool questions and tough profile if moved to a corner.

Fantasy Future: If he can stay in center field, the profile improves, with good secondary skills at the plate and speed on the bases. In a corner, the profile is fringy, with good pop but unlikely to hit 25-plus bombs and unlikely to hit for average.

The Year Ahead: Barnes will move to full-season ball, where his mature approach should put him in friendly conditions that he will need to exploit. The hit tool has question marks, as he can sting low-quality offerings but struggles to barrel velocity, especially on the inner-half. It all comes down to his defensive projection. If he can stick in center field, he can offer value despite some offensive shortcomings (hit tool/power utility). If he slides to a corner, the bat will struggle to play to the position and he will most likely slide down the prospect queue.

Major league ETA: 2016

Prospects on the Rise:

1. 2BDilson Herrera: You can make a case that Herrera already belongs in the Top 10, after an impressive stateside debut in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old Colombian has a very impressive hit tool and more power potential than people realize (plus), and despite his right-side-of-the-infield profile, some scouts are high enough on the offensive potential to suggest he has a first-division future if everything clicks.

2. RHP Adrian Sampson: Under-the-radar community college arm with prototypical size and strength, Sampson can work the fastball in the 91-94 range and has the makings of two solid-average secondary offerings. After nine starts in the New York-Penn League, Sampson is ready for his first taste of full-season ball, and if the progress continues, expect a journey up the prospect rankings.

3. RHP Clay Holmes: Drafted in the ninth round in 2011 and given an insanely over-slot $1.2M signing bonus, Holmes is slowly inching towards prospect ignition. Standing 6’5’’ and weighing 230 lbs., Holmes looks like a workhorse in the making, with a steep low-90s fastball and a curve that flashes above-average potential. If he can step forward with the secondary stuff and tighten the command, he could be in the Top 10 next season.

Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute in MLB in 2013)

1.RHP Victor Black: A supplemental first-round pick in 2009, Black has the arsenal to pitch in the late innings in the majors, but his loose command could limit his effectiveness. He was able to miss barrels in the Eastern league, and if he can harness the fastball/slider combo without losing the intensity, he could be a big contributor to the big-league pen in 2013.

2.RHP Kyle McPherson: The profile isn’t sexy, but it’s a safe bet to contribute at the highest level, most likely as a back-end starter. With size, strength, and pitchability, McPherson has the body to log innings and the arsenal to miss a few bats and limit big damage.

3.RHP Bryan Morris: With an impressive plus fastball that he works at 93-95 mph, a late-slicing cutter, and a slider, Morris has the arsenal to not only induce weak contact, but to miss bats in the majors. After a brief taste of the bigs in 2012, Morris will return to Pittsburgh in 2013 with a chance to emerge as a frontline setup option.

The Pirates lost Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez to the 25-and-over crowd, Robbie Grossman to the Houston Astros, and Stetson Allie to third base. But those voids from the 2011 Top 25 and Under list have been filled and then some off the strength of “big step” years from the likes of Hanson and Polanco and continued progress from Cole, Taillon and Heredia. At the major-league level, Starling Marte displays the tools to be an above-average defensive center fielder with emerging power. He has yet to conquer his bat-to-ball issues, but the Bucs should be able to tolerate the strikeouts if he can move his walk rate closer to 10 percent than five percent while continuing to grow the power production. Jose Tabata remains a solid bat in an outfield corner, but without corner power. Next season could determine whether the former top prospect will take that next step toward becoming a true top-of-the-order hitter or simply settle in as an average corner defender with a fringe-corner offensive profile.

On the bump, the most exciting young arms remain in the minors, but Kyle McPherson should provide some value as an innings-eater at the back of the rotation (provided his shoulder injury this winter doesn’t prove serious). Conversely, he could fit in as a solid eighth-inning arm out of the pen once some of the higher-ceiling arms arrive. Down the spectrum, Travis Snider remains a lotto ticket most likely fitting-in as a fifth outfielder and bat off the bench. Jordy Mercer may be only an up-and-down guy, but his ability to field and throw across the infield gives him a shot at a utility role if enough falls into place for him offensively. —Nick Faleris

A Parting Thought: No system in baseball can boast the one-two punch of Cole and Taillon, and with talented position prospects sitting on the next tier, the Pirates have one of the most impact-heavy systems in the game.

Sure. Rhythm hitting is about timing, or operating the swing with a specific timing mech. Some hitters are purely read/react types, while others are locked into a more consistent groove with their swing.

How far is Jose Osuna from the Top 10? I understand that the life of a right handed 1B sucks but Osuna put together a nice year in the SAL as a 19 year old (.510 SLG post ASG) and he could also play LF...

He wasn't in the discussion. I'm not a big fan of the defensive profile, which puts more pressure on the bat, and I have legit questions about the ultimate projection of the bat. Top 20 for sure, but tough to crack the top ten in this system.

What are your thoughts on the Navy Seal training methods used for Pirates minor league players? Are other teams using these methods? It seems like this was a big deal the day it came out two months ago, but there hasn't been much chatter since.

It seems like this would not be an ineffective way to train players. I wonder if a team that appears "smart" and can do no wrong, (like the Rays) did this then the reaction would be more favorable.

I did not like Allie as a third baseman coming out of high school. Big raw power but big questions as to whether he would be able to get to it against advanced pitching -- never really stood out with the bat on the circuit, despite loud BP showings.

For me, he's a first baseman long term, which is admittedly a waste of at least a 70 arm. Likely negative defensive value, negative value on the bases and offensive profile is high risk/moderate upside. At this point, for me, close to NP.

I saw him a couple times down at Instructs. He's got a thick, stocky build and is a below-average runner. In a limited sample he showed some feel for hitting with decent bat speed and the ability to sting the ball a bit. He's got mostly gap power now but that could develop a bit. I didn't get a good feel for his defensive ability.

The Pirates signed two pitchers from India in a sort of publicity stunt for fastest pitch. Any information on them? I recall the one was sitting in the low 90s upon signing.

Also, I'm curious why a team like the Pirates don't try making a big splash in Asia. Signing a pitching such a Ryu would have put them front-and-center in Korea which is a gigantic market. Add in the availability of Choo, this struggling "small market" team could turn in Korea's team and inevitably become one of the biggest markets.

For me, Tabata's overall profile is more diverse and the secondary offensive skills are superior to Snider's. It's unlikely either is an impact player, but Tabata still has a chance to carve out everyday value with a little ISO improvement and some BABIP bounceback. I can still see a .275/.350/.450 line as a possibility, which I imagine combined with average defense and slightly above-average on-base value would make him around a 2-win player or slightly below.

Snider's bat-to-ball struggles make it harder for me to buy into him as an everyday hitter. There is still pop there, but I haven't seen consistent production from him in years outside of some stretches in hitter haven Vegas.

In short, Snider profiles to me as a straight up-down guy, while Tabata's profile still has some breathing room on the ML side, mostly because of secondary skills and the fact that the hit tool grades better. I wouldn't be shocked if I ended-up on the wrong side, but I feel pretty comfortable with their respective 25U rankings.

Dickerson's big issue entering the draft was that his raw power was heavily geared to the pull side and he had trouble covering the outer half against good arms, especially in his summer stints with wood. He's corrected that some as a pro, getting his upper and lower half working together more consistently, but he is going to really have to hit to carve out a full-time spot in The Show, because he's absolutely limited to first base, defensively, and is a plodder on the bases.

As an aside, he hit some of the most impressive BP homeruns I've seen at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, clearing the tree line just past the right field wall.

It's just amazing how far the Pirates system has come. Hopefully the Pirates will pull off that elusive winning season this year. Huntington's done a lot of great work, even with the initial criticism of blowing up the early major league roster, and it would be nice for him to get some of the kudos that he has earned.

It seems like most of the top 10 are a mixture from Rene Gayo's input internationally and very recent drafts. The lack of prospects from '08 and '09 is troubling. Can this happen to any franchise (especially one who is banking on high school talent like the pirates did) or is it more a factor of Neal Hunington just not being able to make the decisions you need to lead the Pirates back to the promised ground?