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Even more than scienceTue, 08 Aug 2017 15:26:26 +0000hourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.8.3Comment on When wishful thinking kills: the tragic consequences of misplaced faith in introspection by Rik Crutzenhttps://sciencer.eu/2017/08/when-wishful-thinking-kills-the-tragic-consequences-of-misplaced-faith-in-introspection/#comment-12
Tue, 08 Aug 2017 15:26:26 +0000https://sciencer.eu/?p=75#comment-12This blog post describes the complexity of human psychology, and the implications that failing to acknowledge this complexity has, in a very accessible way. I agree on the implications described. I do think, however, that the point of departure of this blog post – i.e., the temptation to extrapolate one’s own psychology to other people – is just one of many factors contributing to this complex problem.

I also think that often the opposite of extrapolation happens (well, it is not interpolation, perhaps lack of extrapolation is a better description, but at least I hope I make myself clear by providing two examples). For example, if you ask intervention developers or policy makers (with good intentions) whether {X} will work for them, then a commonly heard answer is something like “no, this won’t work for me, but it does for all the others.” This might lead to reactions such as “we should explain things clearly to ‘the people’” or “we should tell ‘the people’ how bad they behave and the nasty consequences that will follow from that.”

Another example might be that intervention developers or policy makers lost their faith in ‘convincing people,’ especially when targeting people with a lower educational level. This might lead to favouring quick-fix solutions such as nudging (I deliberately do not provide a link to the piano stairs). I think this is based on the idea that the target group is fundamentally different from intervention developers or policy makers themselves. This might be true, in terms of underlying beliefs that they hold, but this is not true in terms of human psychology. All people, regardless of educational level or any other personal characteristics, can act irrational, are susceptible to environmental influences, and so on. A contribution in the New Yorker (http://www.newyorker.com/tech/frontal-cortex/why-smart-people-are-stupid) – with the provocative title Why smart people are stupid – concludes that “the driving forces behind biases—the root causes of our irrationality—are largely unconscious, which means they remain invisible to self-analysis and impermeable to intelligence.”

The two examples presented above are based on anecdotes and I can only provide indirect evidence. This brings me to my final point: we need more insight into the factors contributing to this complex problem. If the aim is to “persuade people that their introspection is flawed even when it concerns themselves, let alone when trying to extrapolate to others,” then this sounds like an intervention is needed. So, in that case, I think it is warranted to approach this in a systematic way and first gain more insight into the factors contributing to the problem (and then start working on solutions).