DGA Preview and Prediction

This weekend, on January 25, the DGA will call out their winner for the 2013 film year.

There are some things about this year that haven’t changed. The two films vying for the top prize still came out on or before Toronto/Telluride. Box office still isn’t going to play a part in the outcome. The critics have some say in how it’s gone down. The public is still completely taken out of the equation. When the Producers Guild defied all expectations by delivering a tie for the first time in their history, it suddenly became clear just how close this race really was. That was on a preferential/instant run-off ballot.

As you can see, passionate support doesn’t really help in a close race. It surely helps if one movie is supported overwhelmingly, say, The Artist. But where a situation like we have now is concerned, the passion vote doesn’t really help. I’m going to presume that with the Producers Guild there were three top vote getters. If 12 Years a Slave or Gravity was your number one and two, in order for American Hustle to have topped both of those, it would have to be number 3. I’m going to guess that most people would not put 12 Years, Gravity then American Hustle. Either they liked American Hustle better than those two or they didn’t like it at all. That is what you call a divisive film and usually that kind of movie can’t win in a run-off system.

What you really need is a situation where your film is either 1, 2, or 3. You need a lot of 1s, a lot of 2s and a lot of 3s and you’re a contender for the win. What doesn’t help is if you’re hated. Last year, for instance, no one really hated Argo. Either they loved it or they liked it a lot.

That movie, it seems to me, could be Gravity. It could be American Hustle. And it could be 12 Years a Slave. My instincts tell me, though, that you have to be an asshole to put 12 Years a Slave down your ballot. You are likely going to put it towards the top of your ballot either because you view it as the best film of the nominees, or you see it as a noble effort even if it wasnt your cup of tea – you admire the ambition of it. Or, you want to see your vote make a difference in terms of film and Academy history.

If you look at Movie City News’ top ten collection, 12 Years a Slave is at the top of the list. It’s there because it was either a number 1 or a number 2 or very high on those lists. American Hustle did not get many number 1 votes over there and of those who did put it at number 1, their number 2 wasn’t Gravity or 12 Years a Slave — only Joe Morgenstern picked Hustle and then Gravity. So if you went by that list, there’s a good chance Hustle wouldn’t pick up enough number 1 votes to get it in the running for the win.

Now you have to look at how people divide their love for Gravity and 12 Years. Are they similar kinds of people? Are they wildly different? There is a small minority of voters who pick Gravity at #1 and 12 Years at #2, but there are fewer, I’d say, who do it the opposite way. Generally speaking, those who put 12 Years at number one pick something like Wolf of Wall Street for 2. But 12 Years and Gravity are both populating those lists in the top slots.

In a tight year like this one, each award win impacts the next one. Since DGA ballots aren’t due until Friday of this week, voters are likely deciding between McQueen and Cuaron, unless they’re the kind of people who voted for Ralph Nader. There will be no instant run-off voting here.

Because it’s such a close year, we don’t even really know for sure if the DGA will determine Best Picture or not. It’s possible that Cuaron could win in a passion vote at the DGA and in the Best Director category at the Oscar but that the preferential ballot will reward the film that has the most broad support overall, and that would be 12 Years a Slave.

I don’t know how to proceed since we’re seeing something we haven’t ever seen before, with a tie at the Producers Guild and two films vying for the big prize. What I know about the DGA, though, is they do two things consistently. They vote for people they know well and they vote for directors who are nice and amiable. They don’t like directors who are brilliant but who don’t regularly kiss ass. They like the Danny Boyles and the Tom Hoopers and the Ben Afflecks. Nice guys. Logic would then dictate that Cuaron, being one of the nicest guys in town, with the Clooney connection, would have DGA in the bag.

I would then say for your predictions sake that likability and passion would drive this to be that year that breaks the rules with the preferential ballot – Cuaron gets director, 12 Years gets picture as everyone is saying.

But something tells me that this year it’s not going to split, that it will go all the way with McQueen and 12 Years. The reason being, I don’t think I could look at my DGA ballot and not vote for McQueen. For me personally it would either be Martin Scorsese or Steve McQueen. No one else would even remotely enter the picture. But then again, I wouldn’t have voted for Affleck (Spielberg would have gotten my vote), nor Hazanavicius (Scorsese again), Hooper (Fincher, duh). You have to go back to Bigelow to find a year where I personally would have picked the winner, Kathryn Bigelow.

Cliffhanger: Who Will Win the DGA Tonight? Poll + No Guts, No Glory

94 Comments on this Post

McQueen made the important movie and would benefit more from the win than anyone else in the sense that recognition for African American filmmakers is lacking and needed.

On the other hand Cuaron’s efforts is more impressive, to me. The sheer amount of creativity alone. He directed, edited, produced, and wrote a fantastic movie. For me, on merit, Cuaron takes it.

I suppose it becomes the age old debate that plays out in other parts of our society about the role that race/gender etc should play in how we decide these things. I.e. Affirmative action in a way. Does it have space in art? It’s a question that’s very hotly contested outside of the context of art so it’s no surprise it creates such controversy here too.

All that said, if I were to pick my favorite for Best Director at the Oscars I wouls hands down go for Marty, who delivers a masterpiece.

But as between Cuaron and McQueen I would vote for McQueen. I so wish these two weren’t facing off against each other.

Claudiu Dobre

“There is a small minority of voters who pick Gravity at #1 and 12 Years at #2, but there are fewer, I’d say, who do it the opposite way. Generally speaking, those who put 12 Years at number one pick something like Wolf of Wall Street for 2.”

Fantastic point and you just described my list (1.Slave, 2.Wolf, 3.Gravity – of the nominees).

“Because it’s such a close year, we don’t even really know for sure if the DGA will determine Best Picture or not. It’s possible that Cuaron could win in a passion vote at the DGA and in the Best Director category at the Oscar but that the preferential ballot will reward the film that has the most broad support overall, and that would be 12 Years a Slave.
I don’t know how to proceed since we’re seeing something we haven’t ever seen before, with a tie at the Producers Guild and two films vying for the big prize.”

Kyle

Also, I hate this attitude that there’s something wrong with you if you vote for anyone other than McQueen. I LOVE 12 Years a Slave, but I’d vote for Cuaron in a heartbeat, and not because I’m racist. I just think it’s the better achievement.

Kyle- as far as I can tell Hispanics of all origins have won a handful of below the line Oscars and a handful of supporting roles like Moreno, Cruz, Del Toro and Bardem.

The number of nominated directors and producers across all categories is pitiful and limited mostly to the Mexican 3 in the last decade or so. A larger minority, but the number of wins is stunningly low.

But, that said, if the point is that it’s about quality and no the origin of the maker, then this is irrelevant and in any case a wash in the context of this year.

Corvo

My gut feeling is pushing me toward predicting Steve McQueen. The DGA is not closely linked solely to the Oscar for Best Director but also to the Oscar for Best Picture, and the major groups have unanimously distributed to 12 Years a Slave an award for Best Picture: HFPA (despite it winning no other awards there), BFCA (despite Gravity winning seven there) and PGA (tying with Gravity, ofc, though Gravity’s a producer’s wet dream, so this win means more for 12 Years, which was the underdog in that fight). I feel the tide turning in 12 Years’ favour, and when that starts happening, groups like to follow suit. They did it after Christmas when it seemed like American Hustle would dominate the season due to its strong box office over that period – even the NSFC threw their weight behind it. I think they’ll do it now with 12 Years a Slave.

Sammy

I am asking the DGA, where the hell is the most visionary filmmaker of the year, Spike Jonze?

DGA has no business awarding the best directorial effort at all. They are giving their “Best Picture” prize just like other award bodies. That is why there is a high correlation between the BP winner and the DGA award winner.

Bryce Forestieri

Zach

The real question is how was The Sound of Music remake nominated for a DGA??!?

I’m predicting Cuaron. The industry support is palpable. He’s winning all the things that Ang Lee didn’t even get last year on his way to the Oscar with Affleck as his competition.

Problems I had with Slave, which I didn’t think were major at the time, have grown on me. Especially compared to some of the other bold or tight films like Wolf and Hustle. I would attribute Slave’s flaws mostly to the screenplay, with it’s thinly defined characters, but others disagree and blame McQueen for his long takes. It would be weird to see Slave win Picture without actor, but it’s been happening so far. Still, I’m calling Cuaron for this one.

ObamaWins

Zach

And here’s the real $64,000 question — when’s the last time that a Best Picture’s only other major wins were Screenplay and a supporting award? That’s not a terrible combo, but even in prior split years with Argo and Crash, they won Screenplay and Editing. No acting wins, but both had SAG, both were actor-friendly, and Editing is often more of a Best Picture award than a supporting trophy is.

Gladiator won nothing major besides Picture, but it still had 4 total wins and more tech support. Now I know Gravity won’t be winning Actress or Screenplay obviously, but if it cleans up the techs, it’s looking good. Then again Cabaret cleaned up the techs and Directing and Editing and two acting awards, but still lost to The Godfather, which had all the support it needed with wins for its script and Brando. Maybe Slave doesn’t need the big Lead Actor/director/editing win to topple Gravity with all its below-the-line wins and just one major win for Director.

Sammy

Zach

Right, and it led with the most wins, but that was its only win. And yet Traffic had 4 above-the-line wins, 3 of them certainly major, but that wasn’t enough. So throw out the rulebook. Slave is still getting Screenplay and Lupita. Gravity is getting techs including Editing, and Director if it’s lucky.

Brian Susbielles

JPNS Viewer

(I’ve made this a spur-of-the-moment comment; so, it was sort of tentatively put.)
According to the exposition shown in the clip, I feel bad for C and B, already. And in relation to DGA, if Sasha’s relatively experienced pro-“presumption” is correct, then even though I am supporting Dave O. Russell for the being [not that my part as O. Russell column has anything to do with the race], I can’t see him win the race using this method (based upon certain elements of my own notion). : (

For now, it looks like a sole competition between McQueen and Cuaron. (But I might be wrong. And Dave might prevail. We’ll see.)

Note: Sasha, thanks for the chart, as well. Apparently, in general DGA is more predictable and constant in a sense than the Academy.

Hawkeye

Sasha, I believe you meant to put Alexander Payne in your chart for this year. Greengrass was not nominated for the Best Director Oscar.

This really seems to be Cuaron’s to lose and I certainly hope they give it to him. He’s truly the most deserving. If that happens, it could well end up being Gravity that takes Best Picture (the film that wins the DGA takes BP most of the time).

Joshua

Sasha- interesting article at Gold Derby and how the Academy said there WON’T be a tie for Best Picture and it list out what will happen if there is a tie. Should there be a tie I think “12 Years” wins as I would suspect it would have more #1 votes. Just my opinion…

Al Robinson

I hate to bring this up, especially since I don’t care if you pick one of mine, but what is the latest with you guys picking the best Haiku from last week? I only ask because I am excited to find out who won, and what they wrote.

Awaiting patiently,

Al Robinson

Jerry Grant

I am beginning to think more seriously about McQueen taking this. Why? Because at this point a clear 12 Years-Gravity rivalry is forming, and I think that changes the way people vote. Generally, I suspect there is slightly more support for 12 Years for BP than for Gravity, and I deduce voting will now start to split along *those* lines rather than more honest merit-based lines. I think Cuaron would have definitely won were this a week ago, but now I think it’s closer to a split…

Jerry Grant

KB

I have nothing but respect for “12 Years a Slave”, but for me, nothing matches “Gravity” this year. This film, along with “Her”, was the most innovative work this year. I’ve never seen a film that is so intimate yet epic in it’s scope simultaneously. The fact that this has 97% on RT and almost 700 million worldwide is really something to behold. A rare critical and commercial success.

No “blockbuster” has had this type of critical reception. Either way, the Academy will make history, and I hope it’s by awarding the first “Sci-Fi” film. If there were a split, I would rather have McQueen as director, and “Gravity” as best picture. Both are deserving, so at least we know the Academy will make a great choice this year (unless it’s American Hustle).

Pierre de Plume

I keep reading how great Cuaron is with the implication that McQueen’s achievement isn’t as great. I disagree. These are different types of achievements. A failure to see this distinction can lead one to believe that a McQueen win would be for political correctness.

I don’t buy that. When others say they see flaws in McQueen’s long takes, for example, I see artistry.

Cuaron’s artistry is rooted in innovative craft as applied to storytelling. He may very well win, and his likability and relative comfort in the Hollywood colony are strong factors here.

However, I’ll predict McQueen because the DGA sometimes goes its own way and also because it’s too easy and convenient for prognosticators to predict a split.

SmartGuy

Cuaron should win this award easily. McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director (as Sasha clearly thinks).

But that’s not the best way to judge director’s achievement, saying that he SHOULD win because he’s not white. I’d even say that it’s unfair and RACIST. You look at the man and say that ‘we should reward him, he’s black, black people never win, let’s give it to him, this would wipe out our white guilt and then we may forget about all bad things we have done because no one could say anymore that we’re racist’. Then all talk about racism suddenly collapses – not because there is no more racism in the world – but because white people would feel that their guilt is forgotten. They made their atonement.

SmartGuy

@ObamaWins: Hazanavicius was a favourite to win and Hooper was hardly a suprise after “The King’s Speech” took PGA and SAG. But I feel too that McQueen will take it. Not because he deserves it (because Cuaron is the best, that’s obvious) but because of… well, other reasons.

SmartGuy

Oh, and if Cuaron wins… Well, since PGA exists movies that won PGA and DGA has lost only three times: two times to SAG winner (“Shakespeare in Love” and “Crash”) and there was this extremely bizzarre year of “Apollo 13″ which won’t repeat this year. So I don’t see how “Gravity” could lose to “12YaS”. To “American Hustle”? Yes, probable, but not to “12YaS”.

“smartguy” have you even seen 12YAS? I totally understand your support for Gravity and Cuaron as I watched the film with him and Sandra at TIFF. Amazing film making achievement. But I sense that you’re a person filmly in the anti-12YAS camp and someone who hasn’t seen the film to judge it fairly.

I really question anyone’s objectivity of supporting one film and director over another especially if they haven’t seen the film made by ‘that black guy’.

Am I wrong?

ObamaWins

Smartguy. You said you hope the votere won’t vote based on race. So if McQueen wins, that means theu voted because he is black? Not because of his talent? That is racism and defensive. If a black person is successful, there has to be a reason other than he earned it or someone must have helped him?? Stop being a racist an stop making offensive remarks and pretend you are fair.

ObamaWins

ObamaWins

@smartguy. 12 Years doesn’t need DGA to win Best Picture. You try yo find past scenarios that are convinient to you and pretend “It can’t happen”. I am so tired of set rules set by Cuaron fans. Guavity’s lack of screenplay and its being sci fi hurt the film and its probably will make Cuaron’s possible DGA win irrelevant.

steve50

I’ve changed my prediction on this one so many times between Cuaron and McQueen that I don’t remember what I finally said. I’ll probably do it at least twice more before Saturday.

While a Cuaron win at the DGA would not surprise me, I now expect McQueen/12 Years to take the Oscars BD and BP. Yes, Oscar and the DGA seldom differ, but the likeable and familiar Cuaron could take the “boy’s club” award while the academy (breaks tradition) and actually goes the best.

The only way there will be a split between BD and BP is if the Academy somehow loses its shit over American Hustle. There is no way they’ll award DOR over Cuaron or McQueen, too.

ObamaWins

Robin Write

I love looking at the comparison lists over the years. I get a little bit hooked and want to write a book on it. Apologies potentially for the following post.

Some interesting preferences reflected over the years though between the Guild and the Academy:

# Thanks to their TV / Commercial credits respectively it would be unfair to compare now, but you could say the Director’s Guild like Tom Hooper {two DGA noms and one Win against one Oscar Nomination and one Win} and David Fincher {three DGA noms; two Oscar noms} more than the Academy do.

# Christopher Nolan has three DGA nominations. For Memento, The Dark Knight, both failed to make the Best Picture / Director Oscar nominations, and Inception, nomination for Best Picture but snubbed for Director. I susepct Inception would not have made the cut had the number of nomination been extended – which is tragic. The same said for the chances of the former two for Picture had the list been extended then. All three great movies.

# Cameron Crowe has two DGA noms, but the Academy have never nominated him as a Director. He won Screenplay for Almost Famous so I am sure he is not too sad about it.

# Frank Darabont also has two DGA noms, for The Shawshank Redemption and The Green Mile – both also making Best Picture list but not for Director.

# Steven Spielberg has eleven DGA nominations and a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Guild. The Academy only nominated him seven times {I say only!}, but did give him the Thalberg Award even before he had won a Director prize at the Oscars. Amistad, Empire of the Sun, The Color Purple, and Jaws were the corresponding DGA nods missed by the Academy.

# Ron Howard has four nods from DGA and two wins, as opposed to two Oscar nods and one win. The first of those DGA wins was Apollo 13, were the Academy famously failed to even acknowledge him. The Guild also merritted him a nomination for Cocoon.

# Ang Lee has four DGA nominations: for Sense and Sensibilty {no Directing Oscar nomination but a Picture nod}, won for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon {Picture and Director nominated at the Oscars}, won also for Brokeback Mountain {and at the Oscars, but not Picture}, and also nominated for Life Of Pi {won Director Oscar again, but not Picture again}. Has any director ever won two Oscars for Director without Picture? Has any director won two Guilds and two Oscars but for different movies?

# Rob Reiner has three DGA nominations, which might surprise most, for A Few Good Men, When Harry Met Sally, and Stand By Me. Oscar nominations? None.

# James L Brooks also has three DGA nominations. His Oscar record for Directing though is one for one with Terms Of Endearment. His other two DGA nods {Broadcast News and As Good As It Gets} made the Picture list with the Academy but failed to grant him a Director slot.

Those are not necessarily Guild favourites, but it makes you think. On the flip side then it appears the Academy like three particular directors more than the Guild do:

# Robert Altman with five Oscar nominations {and an Honourary Award} over three DGA nominations – they failed to recognise Short Cuts and Gosford Park, but did give him a Lifetime Achievement Award.

# David Lynch has only a sinlge DGA nomination {for Elephant Man}, yet the Academy nominated him on three occasions for Director {also for Blue Velvet and Mulholland Drive}.

# Stephen Daldry’s record with the Academy is bizarre. His four feature films have all made Picture and/or Director nominations. The Hours and The Reader both; Billy Elliot just Director; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close just Picture. He had only made the DGA list once though, for The Hours.

Something to digest…

bd74

McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director

Absolutely. This year is like a redux of the year 2009 when Kathryn Bigelow won. The DGA is looking at this year as another “it’s time for…” year. They’re not gonna pass up the opportunity to award a black director, even though clearly he didn’t do the best directing job of the year. How anyone can see The Wolf of Wall Street and not consider it the best film of the year is beyond me. I’m not even a Scorcese fan, and I normally can’t stand Leo DiCaprio. But my goodness, what an amazing feat for both Scorcese and DiCaprio.

ObamaWins

“McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director”
It is a matter of opinion whether his direction is the best or not. So if he wins, that is because he is black?
That is offensive and very racist, bd74. You suck.

Scott

My problem with that voting system is that a film could receive a small number of first round votes and be eliminated, even if every single other voter had that title listed as their #2 choice.

Pretend 12YAS received 1 #1 vote but 6,000 #2 votes, meanwhile every other best pic nominee was fairly evenly divided, with no overwhelming leader. 12YAS would already be tossed out despite it having the most broad support.

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