2007, the year in which Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton tied with the same amount of points, just one point short of Kimi Raïkkönen who started the last race third in the championship. How did they all get so close to eachother in the last race? Was Raïkkönen’s title a lucky shot, or could he have had a bigger lead? So, how would things have turned out if the title contenders did not have any misfortune?

DISCLAIMER: While anyone having watched Back to the Future understands that you can’t simply alter one thing in history without other things being affected, and thus these results are not completely definitive, they can’t be completely ignored either, considering any Formula One will always push for the best results. This article provides some context to the raw statistics of world championships.

What counts as misfortune: mechanical failure, being crashed in to by another driverWhat does not count as misfortune: wrong tactical choices, crashing their own car, penalty by the driver’s own doing

Grand Prix of Australia
Felipe Massa had to change his engine after qualifying and started the race last. He finished in 6th, just behind Fisichella. While starting further to the front would have most likely put him in front of Fisichella, he was not that much faster that he would have been likely to finish in front of Heidfeld, so we give Massa 1 extra point for p5.

Grand Prix of Spain
When Kimi Räikkönen’s gear box failed, it cost him a certain top 4 placement. It is debatable if he could have stayed in front of Alonso, but considering the pace of Ferrari today, it is very possible, so Kimi gets 3rd place and Alonso drops back to 4th.

Grand Prix of France
Alonso’s gear box problems in qualifying meant he started at p10. Based on Q2 times, he could have started from p5, just behind Kubica. Considering the McLaren’s race pace was not that good, chances are that Kubica would have stayed in front of Alonso, so we give Alonso 5th place, 2 places up from his 7th place finish.

Grand Prix of England
Massa’s engine stalled on the grid, which meant he had to start from the pit lane. With Massa’s strong pace working his way through the field, and Hamilton’s slow pace after the last pit stops, Massa would have probably taken third place from the young Brit.

Grand Prix of Europe
A problem with a wheel gun meant Hamilton crashed in Q3, starting him from p10. Based on his speed in Q2, he would have probably started from p4. While Hamilton was caught in the first corner chaos, his eventual spin was his own doing and not related to his qualifying position. Räikkönen’s hydraulic problems while he was catching up to the leaders, did cost him a likely win.

Grand Prix of Hungary
Judging the situation with Alonso holding up Hamilton in qualifying is tricky, as both Alonso and the McLaren team said it was not intentional, and Hamilton had caused the mix-up to begin with. We’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and put him back on pole, although his race speed was nowhere near that of Hamilton and Räikkönen, so we put him up just one place from p4 to p3. Massa’s low starting position, and consequent bad race, was due to a tactical error.

Grand Prix of Italy
Yet another puncture for Hamilton, finishing in second place just six seconds behind Alonso, the puncture likely cost him the win. Massa retired from third place with a suspension faillure, so at the end of the day, the alternative standing would be Hamilton, Alonso, Massa and Räikkönen.

Grand Prix of Japan
While Jean Todt claimed to have not gotten the memo about the tyre-requirements, it’s odd that Ferrari was the only one that claimed to have missed it, so we’ll leave it at that. Thus, the results for the Japanese Grand Prix are left unchanged.

Grand Prix of Brazil
Lewis Hamilton suffered from gear box problems early in the race, which cost him a lot of time. Considering the time he lost there, and the race speed he had, he would have likely been able to finish third, ahead of Alonso. The Ferrari’s were much too fast for him for a higher finishing position though, so the alternative result would be Räikkönen, Massa, Hamilton and Alonso.

In conclusion I
* Kimi Räikkönen lost a net 12 points due to mechanical failures and other misfortune.
* Lewis Hamilton lost a net 10 points due to mechanical failures and other misfortune.
* Felipe Massa lost a net 17 points due to mechanical failures and other misfortune.
* Fernando Alonso gained a net 4 points due to mechanical failures and other misfortune from his direct championship competitors.

While mechanical failures did not affect this championship nearly as much as they did in 2010, I think it is most remarkable to see how well Hamilton actually did in comparisson to Alonso and how Räikkönen’s championship title was not that much of a lucky shot, although still greatly aided by Hamilton’s slip-up in China.

Coming up next in Alternative History F1: the 2008 world championship was literally decided in the last corner. Were Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton really that closely matched, or were the chances of one of them highly increased by bad luck of the other?

Very good, apart from the European GP. Had Hamilton qualified 4th, he would not have got the puncture, and would have been with the leaders on the 1st laps, passing turn 1 before the massive aquaplaning river was formed

A few small points;
– I’d say you’re a little harsh to say that Massa wouldn’t have got ahead of Heidfeld in Australia – as you said about Kimi in Spain, the pace of the Ferrari should be enough to show he would’ve had the speed to do that.
– Not really an error, but Massa would’ve probably won Brazil in your championship, because he wouldn’t have needed to let Kimi through for him to win the championship.

@Pahmphlet
Yes, Alonso in the years has really surprised me as well. Once I’m done with these, I wanna make an analysis on him, with this in mind. He’s obviously one of the best drivers, but his results seem to be influenced by luck. Though keeping your head cool and collecting the points is of course also a skill.

– Regarding Australia, it’s a tricky one because Heidfeld was having quite a good race, and the speed difference between them didn’t seem that big. I could live with handing him p4 though ;)
– Regarding Europe, I acknowledge the first corner problems. However, Button was in p4 (Hamilton’s ‘real’ starting position) when he spun off at turn 1, so being in the front wasn’t necessarily reason not to spin there. Besides, Hamilton made many more mistakes later on in the race. I agree this is tricky, but there will always be some guesswork in this. Although, in Brazil I gave him the benefit of the doubt when it came to the pit limiter, which some believe he activated himself. I try to kind of balance ‘benefits of the doubt’ out like that.
– Regarding Brazil and Kimi/Felipe, I’ve considered that, but with there still being only 3 points between them in the end, I don’t think they would have taken the risk.

RE: Brazil – I think they would have stayed close throughout the race, but they would’ve given Massa another home win, Kimi would’ve been happy to remain in 2nd as long as he knew that was enough for the championship.

– I’d say you’re a little harsh to say that Massa wouldn’t have got ahead of Heidfeld in Australia – as you said about Kimi in Spain, the pace of the Ferrari should be enough to show he would’ve had the speed to do that

Seeing as Massa had such bad luck in qualifying arguably he could have been on pole and won. Hungary and Silverstone he had bad luck in qualifying so arguably should have had at least podiums. In Japan a stupid tyre strategy meant bad luck again and maybe he could have been on the podium then too. In Italy he retired so should have had points then…wait, hang on…Massa should have been champ in 07!!! :P This is why I’m not a big fan of the guessing game. It’s ok for a bit of fun but a bit pointless as what happened happened and whoever wins deserves it. Every champion needed a certain amount of luck to win.

Were Hamilton’s punctures just luck, or as a result of his aggressive driving style?

Inherently these analyses are always flawed if you try to quantify something as elusive as ‘luck’.
Vettel’s engine blowing in Korea 10 is an clear example where you would say he would probably have won without the failure, would you say Webber getting baulked by Kimi in Silversone 09 Quali meant he lost a certain win? (which if you ask Webber I’m sure he’d say yes)

Interesting scenarios to read, but interesting in both cases 2010 and 2007 you’ve appointed the eventual champion in the alternate history as in the completed season…

@plushpile
While it would be impossible (well, it would be possible, but I don’t have THAT much free time on my hands) to calculate every single thing, this is just an interesting alternative context to the statistics. I won’t say it’s fool-proof, but I think it’s the most reasonable way possible to

This just happened to be the case with those two championships, although I rather find it interesting to see that despite (quite) some bad luck, the champion in the end was who it should have been. Now, if you direct your attention to the 2008-thread, you’ll see a wholely different situation.