While some of the polls have shown the generic differences are narrowing between Republicans and Democrats, polls also show the Republican and Independent voters are far more energized than are the Democratic voters.

Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 2, 2010. This is the smallest gap between the parties in roughly a year.

Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.

However, Gallop polling shows Republicans with a significant advantage over Democrats heading into the 02 November General Election. A report on Monday showed with a high turnout of “likely voters,” Republican candidates would lead Democratic candidates 53% to 40%. With a low turnout of “likely voters,” Republican candidates would lead Democratic candidates 56% to 38% -- an advantage of 18%!

In reporting its latest generic poll results, also released Monday, Gallup helps explain why this is the case. Like Rasmussen, Gallup showed the Republicans with a three-point lead, 46% to 43%, among all registered voters. "However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, . . . Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios."

Republicans tend to do better among voters who are more civically involved. A corollary is that Democrats do best when turnout is highest--that is, when relatively apathetic voters can be roused to go to the polls. Under Gallup's "lower turnout" scenario, Republicans lead by a whopping 18 points, 56% to 38%. Even under the "higher turnout" scenario, which uses a more liberal definition of "likely voter," the GOP lead is 13 points, 53% to 40%. For comparison, according to numbers compiled by Tom Elia, the GOP's advantage in the aggregate vote in 1994 was 7.2 points, 52% to 44.8%. The Dems led by 10.4 points in 2008, 52.9% to 42.5%.

Four million more Republicans voted in the Primary Elections this year than did Democrats. Republicans have not led Democrats in a nationwide primary election voter turnout since 1930.

Dick Morris reported that Republicans are “now poised to take Senate majority,”

Today, October 6th, is the first day this year that the Republican candidate leads in the most recent poll in ten Senate races for Democratic seats. If the Republicans hang onto these leads, they are assured of a majority!

Even more important, the Republican is moving up in all ten races even where the margin is still narrow!

The following are the polling data from the most recent survey listed on realclearpolitics.com:

North Dakota = Republican + 43%

Arkansas = Republican + 18%

Indiana = Republican + 18%

Wisconsin = Republican + 12%

Pennsylvania = Republican + 7%

Colorado = Republican + 5%

West Virginia = Republican + 5%

Illinois = Republican + 4%

Nevada = Republican + 3%

Washington = Republican + 1%

And, in Connecticut, Linda McMahon is hot on the heels of Richard Blumenthal. In New York State, the last published poll had Republican Joe DioGuardi one point behind appointed Senator Kristen Gillibrand, but that poll is now two weeks old. In Delaware, the last poll is two weeks old and showed Democrat Coons way ahead but it may well have closed since.

The only piece of bad news is that Fiorini is 3 points behind Boxer, but Barbara is still under 50% of the vote.

Even among Hispanics, the enthusiasm is way down among the Democrats and up among the Republicans. Stephen Dinan of The Washington Timeswrote,

Hispanics overwhelmingly still favored Democrats over the GOP, 65 percent to 22 percent — a trend that, despite a dip in 2004, has generally persisted for years. But Republican Hispanics are more excited about voting this year than are Democratic Hispanics, also mirroring overall trends.

"They show the very same enthusiasm gap. Republican Latinos are more positive, the Democratic Latinos are more demoralized. How is that different from anyone else? It isn't," said James G. Gimpel, a government professor at the University of Maryland who studies voting and immigration policy.

Conservative enthusiasm is way up. Barack Obama and the TEA Party have fired up the Conservative Base. Nothing can keep Congressional power in the hands of the Democrats other than Barack Obama cancelling the 02 November General Election

We are on the brink of a new morning in America. I look forward to 03 November.

While some of the polls have shown the generic differences are narrowing between Republicans and Democrats, polls also show the Republican and Independent voters are far more energized than are the Democratic voters.

Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 2, 2010. This is the smallest gap between the parties in roughly a year.

Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.

However, Gallop polling shows Republicans with a significant advantage over Democrats heading into the 02 November General Election. A report on Monday showed with a high turnout of “likely voters,” Republican candidates would lead Democratic candidates 53% to 40%. With a low turnout of “likely voters,” Republican candidates would lead Democratic candidates 56% to 38% -- an advantage of 18%!

In reporting its latest generic poll results, also released Monday, Gallup helps explain why this is the case. Like Rasmussen, Gallup showed the Republicans with a three-point lead, 46% to 43%, among all registered voters. "However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, . . . Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios."

Republicans tend to do better among voters who are more civically involved. A corollary is that Democrats do best when turnout is highest--that is, when relatively apathetic voters can be roused to go to the polls. Under Gallup's "lower turnout" scenario, Republicans lead by a whopping 18 points, 56% to 38%. Even under the "higher turnout" scenario, which uses a more liberal definition of "likely voter," the GOP lead is 13 points, 53% to 40%. For comparison, according to numbers compiled by Tom Elia, the GOP's advantage in the aggregate vote in 1994 was 7.2 points, 52% to 44.8%. The Dems led by 10.4 points in 2008, 52.9% to 42.5%.

Four million more Republicans voted in the Primary Elections this year than did Democrats. Republicans have not led Democrats in a nationwide primary election voter turnout since 1930.

Dick Morris reported that Republicans are “now poised to take Senate majority,”

Today, October 6th, is the first day this year that the Republican candidate leads in the most recent poll in ten Senate races for Democratic seats. If the Republicans hang onto these leads, they are assured of a majority!

Even more important, the Republican is moving up in all ten races even where the margin is still narrow!

The following are the polling data from the most recent survey listed on realclearpolitics.com:

North Dakota = Republican + 43%

Arkansas = Republican + 18%

Indiana = Republican + 18%

Wisconsin = Republican + 12%

Pennsylvania = Republican + 7%

Colorado = Republican + 5%

West Virginia = Republican + 5%

Illinois = Republican + 4%

Nevada = Republican + 3%

Washington = Republican + 1%

And, in Connecticut, Linda McMahon is hot on the heels of Richard Blumenthal. In New York State, the last published poll had Republican Joe DioGuardi one point behind appointed Senator Kristen Gillibrand, but that poll is now two weeks old. In Delaware, the last poll is two weeks old and showed Democrat Coons way ahead but it may well have closed since.

The only piece of bad news is that Fiorini is 3 points behind Boxer, but Barbara is still under 50% of the vote.

Even among Hispanics, the enthusiasm is way down among the Democrats and up among the Republicans. Stephen Dinan of The Washington Timeswrote,

Hispanics overwhelmingly still favored Democrats over the GOP, 65 percent to 22 percent — a trend that, despite a dip in 2004, has generally persisted for years. But Republican Hispanics are more excited about voting this year than are Democratic Hispanics, also mirroring overall trends.

"They show the very same enthusiasm gap. Republican Latinos are more positive, the Democratic Latinos are more demoralized. How is that different from anyone else? It isn't," said James G. Gimpel, a government professor at the University of Maryland who studies voting and immigration policy.

Conservative enthusiasm is way up. Barack Obama and the TEA Party have fired up the Conservative Base. Nothing can keep Congressional power in the hands of the Democrats other than Barack Obama cancelling the 02 November General Election

We are on the brink of a new morning in America. I look forward to 03 November.