Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 22, 2012):

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When Private Practice hit a series low 1.7 rating in its new Tuesday 10pm timeslot last week some viewers freaked out. Understandably so. That ratings level is typically associated with a danger of cancellation on ABC. However, my guess is that no matter how woeful the ratings are during the brief Tuesday run of PP this Spring, ABC will try and engineer a deal to bring the show back for what might be its final season next year.

That's not to say such a deal is certain. I thought ABC would do the same for a final season of Brothers & Sisters (and they reportedly tried), but didn't get a deal done.

The observant will note that I've moved Revenge up to certain to be renewed. That may hit the headline in a future week, but I wanted to get PP in this week.

Don't Trust The B---- In Apt. 23 fell only slightly in its second episode. It's still likely to be renewed.

Following the ratings loser Titanic special, GCB fell to a series low 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Sunday. The trigger happy would predict it likely to be canceled now, but since it had a string of prior non-dreadful ratings, I'm not so quick to move it from a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation. I'm still waiting to see how it does in its next new episode.

Why is Cougar Town just a "toss up" with its dreadful ratings instead of "likely to be canceled" or worse? Because of past (negative) experience, I'm keeping shows in their third seasons (even shortened ones) no lower than a "toss up" because of potential syndication related benefits.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Now and then I think of when ratings were better
Like when you said you felt so happy if it could survive
ABC told yourself that it was alright, you’ll see
But you felt so lonely in the Disney company
But that was wine and it’s a headache I still remember

You can get addicted to a certain kind of hopeless
Like syndication to the end, always the end
So when we found that we could not make cents
Well I said that you would still be no Friends
But I’ll admit that I am glad that it is over

But you didn’t have to cut seven episodes off
Make out like renewal never happened and that we were nothing
ABC didn’t even need to shove, and treat them like they’re in no danger
And now fifteen is enough

No, the ratings didn’t have to drop so low
Have your friends collect the glasses
And then change its’ timeslot
Guess that I don’t need that though
Now you’re just some show that has to go

Now you’re just some show that has to go
Now you’re just some show that has to go

Now and then you think of all the times ABC screwed it over
But you had me believing it was always something that Tim Allen had done

But I don’t wanna watch on Tuesday
Leading into every dance sashay
You said that you could let it go
And I wouldn’t catch you hung up on some show that has time to grow-oh-oh

But you didn’t have cut seven episodes off
Make out like renewal never happened and that we were nothing (oh)
ABC didn’t even need to shove, and treat them like they’re in no danger
and now fifteen is enough

(oh)

No, the ratings didn’t have to drop so low
Have your friends collect the glasses
And then change its’ timeslot (oh)
Guess that I don’t need that though
Now you’re just some show that has to go

Some show that has to go
Some comedy (now you’re just some show that has to go)
That has to go
Some show that has to go
Some comedy (some show) (now you’re just some show that has to go)
That has to go

Has to go
That has to go
Has to go
Some comedy

Greg

^^ Best. Post. Ever.

Dahne

@Common Anomaly – BWAAAHHH!!! That post is perfect. I ever went back and put Gotye on to get the full effect. You need to get a blog and post these about a lot of shows. This is sheer perfection!

Greg

I hope Apartment 23 gets steady soon so it could lead the tuesday comedy slot and be paired with Happy Endings (and maybe even Cougar Town, if it somehow manages to survive).

I don’t see LMS staying on tuesdays at 8 anymore. ABC needs to do some damage control with it and pair it with The Middle or Modern Family. A 1.6 is not good.

Rebecca

You down with GCB (yeah you know me) – that’s all I’m going to attempt at songwriting for now.

Wasn’t Home Improvement in the same timeslot back in the day as LMS is now? That might be one reason they put it there.

Bee

LMAO common anamoly. that is GENIUS. i almost started singing along to it out loud.

and what was the 2 broke girls revenge reference?! i love that literally EVERYONE seems to love the show hahaha the show is one of those where the hype and buzz isn’t matching the ratings. with the way everyone obsesses over it and it being a non-teen/non-CW show that does very well in social media, you’d think it was getting 3.5s by now. the ideal scheduling for it would be to air midseason like LOST with almost no repeats. but a break that big till season 2 would hurt it.

GCB, scandal, and PP are the only bubble renewals i’m taking serious interest in. i want all 3 renewed, but PP has to come first. it deserves a proper wrap.

Avery

TGiF will MOST likely return this fall because ABC wants more sitcoms.

Pete

If Happy Endings is renewed, will it get the same treatment as Cougar Town?

Tony

Revenge is a tricky one. It has solid buzz and if the finale goes out with a bang that will be talked about all summer it could come back in season 2 with series highs because of strong word of mouth. But the problem is that it’s hard trying to grow an audience to a show, doing it at 10 pm is NOT the time to do it. So ABC has to decide, are they happy with Revenge where it is, just a solid performer nothing breathtaking, but is the first real hit in that slot for years, or will ABC go risky and push it to Sundays at 9 in the former DH slot and post OUAT slot and watch the show skyrocket in the ratings? or move it to Thursdays and watch it be the successor of Grey’s on thursdays? The best choice would be on Sundays following OUAT, that would provide it a good lead in, and then follow that with 666 Park Ave at 10 pm. That would be a great Sunday night line-up.

TN

@ Pete
Probably, which sucks because Happy Endings is a much better show overall than Cougar Town. Really, I only watch two shows on ABC, HE and Apt 23, and sometimes Modern Family. Those are the ratings that I hope they can keep going and get renewed.

Bunny

@Pete

Yep…

Pete

@TN @Bunny

What a waste. LMS and Cougar Town are not compatible at all. If they pair up Cougar Town and Happy Endings it will be much better.

Joe Petitjean

Happy Endings is one of the best comedies of the year it’s certain to be renewed…MF has hit a rut this year…OUAT is the best show on Sunday…..And abc primetime head is Paul Lee.

Jenny

Hopefully PP will get a final season. A shortened one would be fine just don’t make it stop at 97 episodes. At least the cast and fans would get the celebrate its 100th episode

Darcy

Who would want to move Revenge? It broke a dry spell of cancellation in the Wednesday 10pm slot. It’s doing rather well for a show that was probably going to be filler for ABC.

Moving it to Sunday jeopardizes it’s audience, and does put it up against awards shows, etc.

Why fix what ain’t broke? Leave Revenge where it is for Pete’s sake!

Jenny

I don’t quite understand about the ratings system. Which number is going to decide one show’s fate? Anyone?

bhagya

i want ct to be renewed. Is the argument that it is the only sutcom owned by abc studios help it?

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“I don’t quite understand about the ratings system. Which number is going to decide one show’s fate? Anyone?”

Adults 18-49 rating.

That’s not listed in this post (at the request of Nielsen), but the “Index” is each show’s adults 18-49 ratings relative to the rest of the shows on its network, which is the best indicator for renewal or cancellation.

Fred

The last new episode of Revenge was one of the worst eps of the series. It was very choppy and dull. The supposedly sexy scenes with Victoria Grayson and her lover were awful.
I’m hoping for improvemnent tonight.