A place to find news, research and discussion on economic issues related to the impact of globalisation on the environment

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Research paper: Crime, weather, and climate change - murder rates up

Climate change in the US to result in 22,000 more murders, 180,000 rape cases and 1.2 million MORE aggravated assults between 2010 and 2099. Potential for headlines when publishing results of this type. Important to put these numbers relative to current crime rates of course.

Results will depend on which climate model is used and how these are justified. Non-linear effects?

These simulations are based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, a \middle-of-the-road" climate change scenario that assumes eventual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 levels at 720 ppm (IPCC, 2000, 2007). I use predictions from two general circulation models: the U.K. Hadley Centre's HadCM3 climate model, and the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research's CCSM3 climate model. The predictions, which are available from an archive maintained by the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), have an interpolated resolution of two degrees of latitude by two degrees of longitude (WCRP, 2007; Maurer et al, 2007).

Abstract

This
paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of
criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a
30-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2997 US counties. I
identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a
semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for state-by-month and
county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a
strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of
lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an
additional 22,000 murders, 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2 million aggravated
assaults, 2.3 million simple assaults, 260,000 robberies, 1.3 million
burglaries, 2.2 million cases of larceny, and 580,000 cases of vehicle
theft in the United States.

Keywords

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About me

This blog is written by Professor Rob Elliott, an academic economist, with an interest in all things international and environmental..I am currently a Professor of International and Environmental Economics at the University of Birmingham..Find me at my homepage.

This weeks read

Following the recent workshop on the "Economics of the Stern Review" and the fuss caused by the "great global warming swindle" this book represents an excellent introduction to the topic. Chapter 6 is the chapter it all hinges upon.