Texas Congressional 23 remains neck-and-neck in final weeks

Updated 8:40 pm, Friday, October 19, 2012

A political showdown in the San Antonio-based congressional race pitting Republican Rep. Francisco “Quico” Canseco and state Rep. Pete Gallego, a Democrat, remains neck-and-neck heading into the final weeks. The race has turned particularly ugly in the San Antonio media market, where the candidates, their respective parties and special interest groups are expected to dump more than $5 million in negative ads onto the airwaves.

With both candidates scandal free, the race largely pivots on political ideology and the likability of Canseco and Gallego. Opposing camps are trying their best to make prospective voters dislike both men, and the candidates have each bristled at their portrayal in the ads.

Democrats desperately need the seat to win back control of the House. Republicans have used redistricting and the lack of a primary battle to shore up a freshman lawmaker who last won with less than 50 percent of the vote. But expect more mudslinging in the days ahead.

“Campaigns today are about character assassination,” said Larry Hufford, a political science professor at St. Mary's University. “But I really believe that turnout will be the major factor in who wins that congressional district.”

While Mitt Romney has not been as popular among Republicans as past GOP presidential candidates, Texas conservatives also have tea party favorite Ted Cruz at the top of the ballot as he seeks to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas.

President Barack Obama drove Democratic turnout in 2008 in Texas, and won 50 percent of the votes in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District. But a backlash against Washington and a tea party insurgency helped Canseco win the seat in 2010 as part of a national wave that claimed three veteran Democratic congressmen.

Experts to do not expect a tea party wave again in 2012, or the kind of excitement that Obama produced in 2008. Turnout of party loyalists for the presidential candidates is sure to influence the congressional race, but so could down-ballot skirmishes.

San Antonio and Del Rio are both at the center of hot races for sheriff, expected to draw precinct support needed by both congressional candidates in the tight race. Gallego and Canseco both enjoy strong partisan support in those cities.

Democratic turnout is also needed by Gallego in El Paso, which is heavily Democrat, but there are no local competitive county races there to drive voters to the polls. And while the district is 66 percent Hispanic, Canseco is unlikely to be helped by Romney, whose positions on immigration have alienated Latino voters.

To compensate, Gallego and Canseco were out in the district urging supporters to the polls.

Both candidates, in interviews, said they expect a close finish. The experts agree.

With neither presidential candidate expected to visit Texas, the onus of driving voters to the polls falls to both candidates, said Kyle Kondik at UVA's Center for Politics.

“I wonder what kind of turnout operation either candidate can run?” Kondik said. “It's such a huge district.”