Five years into his presidency, there is still a very weak economy, and 74% of Americans believe it feels like we are still in a recession.

In addition, he has had a terrible year in which his major policy initiative failed spectacularly and his administration was caught misusing the IRS against political opponents, many Americans were startled to discover the scope of electronic government surveillance and details continued to trickle out about a number of other scandals.

The President is now so unpopular in some parts of America that incumbent Democrats hide when he comes to their state.

The President recently tried moving to the left with rhetoric about income inequality to arouse his base.

That strategy so alienated independents that the White House is now suggesting the State of the Union will focus on upward mobility and helping people achieve higher incomes through growth (core Republican themes) rather than on income inequality.

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The Obama dilemma is simple.

He can move to the left and his base will be relatively happy (except on the NSA spying, where they may be the angriest opponents of the President's policies). But the base is too small to win the Senate races this fall.

He can move to the center, and the base may be bored and stay at home while the independents remain alienated by the economy and Obamacare.

Tuesday night, the President will be playing a weak hand.

He will get a standing ovation a number of times, of course, and the State of the Union is always a spectacle centered on the president. Most speeches like this have an impact for three days.

We will see if the President has found a formula that is more effective and lasting.