District 3 supervisor race could be a real contest

Supervisor Julie Christensen listens to speakers during the grand opening celebration of the new affordable family rental housing Broadway Sansome Apartments in San Francisco, CA Thursday, June 11, 2015.

Supervisor Julie Christensen listens to speakers during the grand opening celebration of the new affordable family rental housing Broadway Sansome Apartments in San Francisco, CA Thursday, June 11, 2015.

Photo: Michael Short, Special To The Chronicle

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Former supervisor Aaron Peskin, left, tours the rooftop deck with architect Daniel Solomon during a grand opening celebration of new affordable family rental housing Broadway Sansome Apartments in San Francisco, CA Thursday, June 11, 2015. less

Former supervisor Aaron Peskin, left, tours the rooftop deck with architect Daniel Solomon during a grand opening celebration of new affordable family rental housing Broadway Sansome Apartments in San ... more

Photo: Michael Short, Special To The Chronicle

District 3 supervisor race could be a real contest

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The race between San Francisco Supervisor Julie Christensen and former Supervisor Aaron Peskin in District Three — which has become a proxy fight over Mayor Ed Lee’s tech- and building-boom-friendly policies — could be closer than many insiders expected.

A new poll shows that Peskin — who has opposed the mayor’s policies on waterfront high-rise development and “sharing economy” rental services such as Airbnb — leads Christensen, the mayor’s handpicked board appointee, 29 to 24 percent.

And there’s a wild card: Wilma Pang, a music professor at San Francisco City College and perennial candidate for the seat, pulls down 15 percent of the first-round votes — apparently based on the strength of her Chinese surname in the district, which includes Chinatown.

Under ranked-choice voting, voters get three picks. So if Pang is eliminated from contention after the first round, her supporters’ second choices would kick in.

And when those second-choice votes are tallied, the new poll finds Christensen leading Peskin, 52 to 48 percent — which, while encouraging for the incumbent, is still within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error.

“I think there was a presumption that Peskin would have a lot of advantages ... but it’s shaping up as a lot closer than anyone expected,’” said David Metz of the polling firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz and Associates. His outfit conducted the poll of 400 voters from June 24 to July 2 for the Alliance for Jobs and Sustainable Growth, a business and labor political action committee that is backing Christensen.

The poll also found that almost a third of the voters in the district, which includes North Beach, Telegraph Hill and Russian Hill, are still undecided.

Early political missteps and lackluster fundraising by Christensen suggested even to members of the mayor’s inner circle that she could be in for a rough ride against Peskin, who spent eight years on the board — five as its president — before being termed out in 2009.

The poll, however, found that both candidates have their strengths and weaknesses. For example, Peskin is better known in the district than Christensen, but about a quarter of voters surveyed view him unfavorably — compared with 14 percent who have a negative view of newbie Christensen.

The race could swing on who wins the Chinese American vote. Metz called that demographic “absolutely critical.”

The mayor’s support for Christensen could prove “particularly important,” Metz said. Lee has a 65 percent favorable rating in District Three — and an eye-bulging 97 percent support among Chinese American voters.

Peskin’s reaction: “I have a long, productive history of working with Chinatown and the Chinese community and think the votes will reflect that.”

He added that he will soon be announcing some endorsements that will be “extremely impactful in the Chinese community.”

As for Christensen, she says that considering she was presumed DOA when Peskin announced his candidacy, the poll results are “great — but it doesn’t surprise me. It’s exactly what I’ve experienced at the grassroots level.’’

Mazzola bows out: In a move that has left many labor insiders stunned, former plumbers union leader and Airport Commission President Larry Mazzola Sr. has dropped his re-election bid as president of the San Francisco Building and Construction Trades Council.

Instead, his son Larry Mazzola Jr. is running for the job.

The elder Mazzola has become a political lightning rod, amid disclosures that he tried to help his nephew land a new airport job after he was forced to resign from another position there for having porn on his work computer.

There were also divisions within the council over Mazzola’s leadership style and over the group’s decision to remain neutral on Supervisor David Campos’ call for a moratorium on housing construction in the Mission — something the building unions figure would cost them plenty of jobs.

When veteran Operating Engineers Union rep Charley Lavery said he was challenging Mazzola Sr., the longtime labor leader pulled out. Even though the younger Mazzola is running for the job, the feeling is that the family dynasty might come to an end when union members’ votes are counted Thursday.

Not that Mazzola Sr. is going away. In addition to heading the Airport Commission, he is still vice president of the San Francisco Labor Council and a well-paid consultant at the Plumbers and Pipe Fitters Local 38, which he ran for decades — before he installed Larry Jr. as business manager.

San Francisco Chronicle columnists Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross appear Sundays, Mondays and Wednesdays. Matier can be seen on the KPIX TV morning and evening news. He can also be heard on KCBS radio Monday through Friday at 7:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Got a tip? Call (415) 777-8815, or e-mail matierandross@sfchronicle.com. Twitter: @matierandross