Hurricane Sandy could affect the election outcome

As Hurricane Sandy was bringing the East Coast to its knees Monday, some political observers and elections officials were looking ahead to Election Day, less than a week away.

Should Sandy result in long-term and extensive power outages reaching into Election Day, elections officials may have to resort to counting paper ballots by hand, according to a report from Connecticut.

“If they need to be counted by hand, they could,” said Connecticut Secretary of the State spokesman Av Harris. “It’s not ideal, but you do what you have to do. The election’s happening,”

Ballot-counting machines can operate on battery power if need be, Harris said, but should a “worst-case scenario” become a reality, hand-counting and consolidation of polling places could be on the table, according to a report in the New Haven Register.

The massive storm already was having an impact on the presidential election Monday, as both President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney first canceled campaign appearances and then suspended all campaign activities.

Along with suspended campaigns, other things that could affect the elections:

Polling places could be damaged: Polling places are just as susceptible to wind and water damage as homes and businesses. Poll workers who literally run the election could also find themselves without power or away from home, making the logistics of running the election more difficult.

No last-minute campaign push: There comes a point when the president has to stop campaigning and run the country in a time of disaster. That puts Romney in an awkward position, since he could look bad if he continues. Both candidates have already suspended campaigning. What happens if the effects of the disaster prevent them from resuming before Nov. 6?

Voters may stay home: The storm will affect parts of Virginia and potentially Ohio, crucial swing states. If people were evacauted or if their cars were damaged, it could be harder to get to the polls on Election Day. For so-called “low-propensity voters,” that could make a difference.

Voters may subconsciously blame the incumbent: Research by Larry Bartels of Vanderbilt University and Christopher Achen of Princeton University found that severe drought and excessive rainfall may have cost Vice President Al Gore the 2000 election by dampening enthusiasm for the incumbent party.

Political science professor Gabriel Lenz: “You might imagine there’s an ideal world in some peoples’ heads where everyone votes on policy and knows what the candidates and parties stand for. I think we’re pretty sure we’re not in that world.”

Voters may not see political ads: Both campaigns are spending millions of dollars on advertising on television and radio. They may suspend advertising if the storm causes massive damage. But if power goes out, people won’t see ads even if they are on the air.

No more negative TV ads?That might just be the first good news to come out of this storm.