People more well-versed in Australian politics than I: What are the chances Abbott's head rolls after this? He really is an albatross on their party. Also, who would take his place as PM? Turnbull? Bishop?

He is toast. As for his replacement, probably a three horse race between Turnbull, Bishop or Morrison. Think Bishop is the favourite.

I guess there might be the odd populist Dem who didn't like Republicans but agreed with Wallace's style more? This would be more common had say Muskie or some other Dem won the nomination though. In particular there wouldn't be that many Wallace voters who voted for Ford over Carter, for example.

I'd probably say Liberals 52-48, the seat is more blue-ribbon than Fisher. If the Liberals lose this......South Australia may finally have a Labor government in terms of time in government to rival the Playfair's and the JBP's of the world.

Considering the mix of geographies, we'd be in minority government territory with an LNP 51-49 TPP win.

Very interesting in that case. I know Labor won a comfortable win with less than that in 2009, which seems to have a lot of commentators on other sites convinced that Queensland's political geography actually favors the ALP. I don't know how true that is; it just seems to me that the state overall is very idiosyncratic and weird.

Another tidbit-

Quote

The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that a ReachTEL poll of 1115 voters on the Gold Coast, conducted at an unspecified time this week, had the LNP on 48.3% and Labor on 29.4%, compared with 58.3% and 23.7% at the 2012 election. The paper also reports that internal polling by both Labor and Palmer United suggest Albert, with a margin of 11.9%, is “in play”, and that Labor is “hopeful of a win” in Broadwater, margin 11.3%.

I think Queensland political geography in general is rather fluid - there seems to be a fair amount of marginal seats, far more than say NSW (which is notorously inelastic). Perhaps it's because there aren't that many leafy suburbs in Brisbane - only places like Indooropilly and Moggill really fit what you see in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne and the North Shore of Sydney. That said, there are more safe LNP seats than safe Labor ones.

I mean, at this point the whole sock policy just seems like a make-work project so that the moderators/administrators have something to do. It's pretty bizarre how up in arms the Regime gets about socking. Lifetime bans and all that just for making a second account.

That's never actually happened though. We've doled out temporary bans to people who made second accounts a bunch of times, but only permabanned second accounts of people who were already permabanned in the first place.

Not true - Simfan and R2D2 were initially permabanned for making sock accounts despite being unbanned at the time.