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Traditional wine-producing regions face decline, climate study finds

Climate change threatens many of the world’s wine-producing areas, but Niagara Region and other northern grape-growing areas are expected to benefit

A major international study on climate change predicts many traditional wine-producing regions of the world will see major declines in productivity due to climate change. But the study also suggests that northern regions — including Niagara Region — will see their suitability to grow wine grapes expand.
(Ontario Tourism)

A major international study on climate change predicts many traditional wine-producing regions of the world will see major declines in productivity due to climate change.

But the study also suggests that northern regions — including Niagara Region — will benefit as climate change produces less precipitation and puts stress on water resources in traditional wine-growing regions like France’s Bordeaux and Rhone valleys and Italy’s Tuscany region.

“One of the key findings of the study . . . is that wine is just a harbinger of change,” said Dr. Rebecca Shaw of the U.S.-based Environmental Defense Fund, one of the study’s co-authors.

The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, said two different climate models paint a dire picture, predicting a decline of 25 to 73 per cent in major wine-producing regions by 2050. A second climate model puts the figure at between 19 and 62 per cent.

“They (findings) are surprising numbers. They surprised us when we first saw them and I think they’re eye-opening for anybody,” said Lee Hannah, senior researcher in climate change biology at Conservation International.

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Hannah noted that an initial modelling study was so alarming that researchers decided to do a second more sophisticated modelling study, with similar results.

The study says that as Mediterranean ecosystems in particular face steady decline in the coming decades, more northern regions will actually see their suitability to grow wine grapes expand.

While the study points to the Western U.S. and British Columbia as the main beneficiaries, Hannah said Niagara Region’s already substantial wine industry is also likely to benefit.

“The good news for (Niagara) region would be that our models show that in the future, it’s going to be getting better as a wine-growing region,” Hannah said.

Keith Bown, vice-president of viticulture and winemaking for Constellation Brands — which produces Inniskillin and Jackson-Triggs in the Niagara Region — said the study confirms his own observations since arriving from Australia five years ago.

“We’re seeing warmer and slightly drier conditions just in the five years I’ve been here in Canada. I’m very optimistic about the potential for the region,” Bown said.

“Last year was a classic example. We started our harvest last year on the last day of August. That is the earliest harvest on record for Niagara,” Bown said.

“Traditionally, Niagara has a very short ripening window for growing different varieties and we’ve had a harvest that was six or seven weeks in length. But if you can start your harvest the last week in August, then suddenly you’ve got an eight- or nine-week harvest window, which obviously gives you a lot more opportunity,” he added.

Bown said the region is ideal for growing “aromatic white varieties,” such as riesling, Chardonnay, Pinot Gris and Pinot Noir, which are known for their ability to ripen early.

The region also has a vast range of soil types — from clay-loam to light, free-draining sand — that accommodate different varieties of grape.

There’s also the potential for expansion of traditional wine-growing areas in the Niagara Region outside of the traditional Niagara peninsula spots in coming years.

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