Tuesday, August 18, 2015

The resignation of Rebsamen ball turns to Holland – Release

They would be well. Wednesday, after the Council of Ministers, François Rebsamen will present his government’s resignation to Hollande and Manuel Valls. After more than a year at Work, this close to President chose to go back to Dijon City Hall to resume his post as mayor left vacant since the death in July of his successor Alain Millot. At first glance, finding a replacement rue de Grenelle should not be a problem. But between the agricultural crisis lasts, the disappointing economic performance and a left wing ready to resume his parliamentary guerrilla on the next budget, the choice of successor Rebsamen looks more complicated.

What timing?

According to the Elysee, “it will go fast” . The only thing certain is the day and announced the resignation of François Rebsamen: Wednesday, after the Council of Ministers re-entry. But in the entourage of the Minister of Labour, is not expected to make his cartoons illico: “We will leave when we tell him to leave.” In other words, until the resignation is not formally accepted by the president and his successor is not appointed, the mayor of Dijon continue to deal with current business in his ministry. Moreover, the minister planned to be on deck (TVs, radios …) next week for the monthly announcement of unemployment figures.

So, despite the “period short “ promised by the Elysee Palace, the Ministry of Labour is expected that the replacement takes place in early September, after the return of the Socialists in their traditional summer school in La Rochelle (from 28 to August 30). The scenario is risky for the executive: how to leave his post ten days a resigning minister when everyone has known for more than a month we will have to replace it in September? Moreover when it is the member of the Government with the task of fighting against rising unemployment, “priority” hammered by the head of state. The right and the radical left will find something to their heart against Holland …

How big

The issue is for each change within a government: broad political reshuffle or mere technical adjustment? So far, François Hollande had in mind to await the results of the regional elections on 6 and 13 December next to perform the last of his five-year upheaval. The goal: to gather the -écologistes left, Martine Aubry friends, even the most left of the PS within his government to tackle preparations for the presidential 2017. But that was before the resignation of Rebsamen.

Obviously, this unplanned reorganization gives free rein to the prognoses of socialist leaders. A near Manuel Valls has the “feeling” that “it will revamp wider” , simple “intuition” . According to the entourage of Rebsamen, executive couple has not decided. Especially Hollande could also await the nomination, a priori mid-September, his defense minister, Jean-Yves le Drian, ready to lead the Socialists in Britain to make greater changes. At the Elysee, it ensures that the composition of the government will not be turned upside down in September, while stressing that only Holland “knows what can happen,” .

What ? signal

François Rebsamen has defined itself the job description of his successor: “This function requires to be in permanent contact and in total harmony with the Elysee and Matignon “, has he said last week in Le Parisien . Some saw it as the current profile Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll, faithful among the faithful of Francois Hollande. In addition to very near the front line in the fight against unemployment -and therefore reap the laurels of a hypothetical decline in 2016- the rue de Grenelle appointment could help to bring the former Agriculture Minister Ecology, Philippe Martin, or the pattern of left radicals, Jean-Michel Baylet. Problem: Foll is stuck for weeks in pig crisis. His glorious exfiltration would not happen and rue de Grenelle weighted with a heavy handicap. “There is no question he deserted , a Socialist who wants to believe the recently took the phone. Hollande can not afford to offer the head of his friend to farmers and to the right. “

If it is not Le Foll, then who? Holland could take up this appointment to send a signal to his left. In this case, it still Jean-Marc Germain option at hand. Near Martine Aubry, the PS MP Grenelle street knows well, having accompanied the future mayor of Lille time Jospin. “It would be the best choice , defends the deputy of the Nievre, Christian Paul. But that would mean taking this ministry seriously. “ The deputy of Hauts-de-Seine is also social specialist -he was Parliamentary rapporteur of the law on” security of employment ” in 2012- and dream to wear his idea of ​​”professional social security”. But if his appointment please the far left of his party, it would be frowned upon by the Legitimists because deputies considered a “cash for revolt.”

Another solution mentioned: Alain Vidal. The current Secretary of State for Transport, previously in charge of Relations with Parliament, has the advantage of sending a sign “social” -it’s lawyer and labor law comes from the left wing of the PS and “loyalty” -since 2012, it was never taken into critical fault line carried by Holland and Valls. But his friends do not believe so. “It has not been very bright on the transport issue and I do not see why, after having refused him twice, Holland and give him Valls Work” , a deputy balance. At Rebsamen, is the idea altogether “wacky” . The name of the boss of PS deputies, Bruno Le Roux, also returns. But the chosen of Seine-Saint-Denis will replace the dream more Drian Defense. And his appointment would reshuffle the cards within the group in the Assembly, not really smart to weeks of budget debates … Appoint a featherweight -Laurent Grandguillaume Burgundy, Christophe Sirugue … – seems not a preferred option the executive. As one MP, “Rebs’ has really made them a crooked shot” .