Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (C) and Brunei's Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah (R) attend the APEC-ASEAN dialogue on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit in the central Vietnamese city of Danang on November 10, 2017. (JORGE SILVA/AFP/Getty Images)

ANGELO PERSICHILLI, GUEST COLUMNIST

Is the Trudeau government’s approach to the province of Quebec likely to resurrect the ailing separatist movement?

Some concern is justified.

There are many differences between the Liberal government led by Justin Trudeau and the previous Conservative one of Stephen Harper.

One of the most important is their relationship with Canada’s two most populous provinces, Ontario and Québec.

Before the 2011 election, national politics hinged on a well-accepted axiom: If you couldn’t win significant support in Quebec, you could not win a majority across Canada.

Things changed after the 2008 election, when the Conservatives, despite launching a huge effort to improve their standings in Québec, won only a second minority government.

After those disappointing results, an adviser told Harper that voters in Québec were not looking for a reason to vote for the Conservatives, but a reason to vote against them. And they always found one.

So, between Ontario and Quebec, why not switch the party’s primary focus to the former?

At the time, Ottawa and Queen’s Park didn’t have a good relationship, as suggested by the harsh political rhetoric of their respective finance ministers, the late Jim Flaherty for the Harper Conservatives and Dwight Duncan for the Dalton McGuinty Liberals.

Nonetheless, it was the right time to forge a new relationship because both Harper and McGuinty were facing tough economic challenges.

It was the height of the global recession and tens of thousands of jobs were disappearing, with the auto industry on the verge of bankruptcy.

The first olive branch was sent by Harper’s camp and McGuinty reciprocated, beginning with an informal meeting in November, 2008 following a federal-provincial summit on health care.

From there, the relationship between Harper and McGuinty improved dramatically.

Together, they helped to save the Canadian auto industry from bankruptcy, with financial support from both governments.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Adrian Wyld/THE CANADIAN PRESS

This new spirit of federal-provincial co-operation was also pushed along due to the the non-idyllic relationship between the Ontario and federal Liberals, then headed by Michael Ignatieff, and the federal and provincial Conservatives, then headed by new leader Tim Hudak.

Harper, didn’t use his new relationship with Ontario to discriminate against Québec.

However, the dramatically reduced political influence Quebec now had with Ottawa, helped the Conservatives to treat Québec more like any other province.

In 2011, Harper won a majority government without winning substantial support in Québec, but with strong support from Ontario.

The collapse of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, and the surge of the federal NDP in Québec under Jack Layton, played a big role in the collapse of the federal Liberals in the rest of the country, helping Harper to win his majority in 2011.

Many Quebec voters had realized by that time that the separatist presence in Ottawa, in the form of the BQ, had exhausted its usefulness.

They needed a different way to influence federal politics.

Considering their distrust for the Liberals and incompatibility with the Conservatives in 2011, many Quebec voters chose the NDP and Layton.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh addresses supporters as he kicks off his first cross-country tour at a rally in Ottawa, Sunday October15, 2017. Fred Chartrand/THE CANADIAN PRESSFred Chartrand /
THE CANADIAN PRESS

That strategy may have backfired for them in the sense that in the 2011 vote, for the first time in recent history, a federal party had won a majority government without significant support from Québec.

Trudeau’s government, following its election in 2015, has since returned things back to where they were before the 2011 election, with Québec viewed as a political base the Liberals hope will help them win a second majority in 2019.

I’m not blaming Trudeau for bringing Québec back into the centre of the political fold.

Every prime minister is entitled to hinge his political career around his or her own perceived strengths.

Nonetheless, it may be that Harper’s change from Quebec-centred to Ontario-centred federal politics from 2008 to 2011, contributed to the present troubles of the BQ in Ottawa.

It might be a coincidence, but the crash of the separatist movement in Quebec occurred alongside Harper’s second minority government and its strong relationship with Ontario.

The Harper-McGuinty alliance exposed the fake political influence of the BQ in Ottawa and the separatist movement in Quebec.

Is it now possible to switch back to the old template under Trudeau, with Québec again at the centre of Canadian politics, without breathing life back into the separatist movement?

The answer awaits us in the 2019 federal election.

Persichilli is a Toronto journalist and former communications director for then-prime minister Stephen Harper

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