Race for Number 1

Given Federer's already 500 points ahead this year with Wimbledon and the rest of the hard court season yet to come, its almost inconceivable that Nadal can overtake him even if he wins the US Open.

Given that this is slightly skewed by the fact that Nadal didn't play the Aussie Open, my question is assuming they both stay healthy, what do people think the gap in the rankings will be after next year's Aussie Open and in whose favour.

For those who aren't familiar with how points are distributed here's a brief summary.

Grand Slams - W-1000, F-700, SF-450, QF-250, R16-150....R128-5

Masters Series - W-500, F-350, SF-225, QF-125....

Masters Cup - W-650, F-500....

Best of 5 other tournies with winner getting between 175 and 250 points depending on the level of the tournament.

Given Federer's already 500 points ahead this year with Wimbledon and the rest of the hard court season yet to come, its almost inconceivable that Nadal can overtake him even if he wins the US Open.

Given that this is slightly skewed by the fact that Nadal didn't play the Aussie Open, my question is assuming they both stay healthy, what do people think the gap in the rankings will be after next year's Aussie Open and in whose favour.

For those who aren't familiar with how points are distributed here's a brief summary.

Grand Slams - W-1000, F-700, SF-450, QF-250, R16-150....R128-5

Masters Series - W-500, F-350, SF-225, QF-125....

Masters Cup - W-650, F-500....

Best of 5 other tournies with winner getting between 175 and 250 points depending on the level of the tournament.

Click to expand...

Nadal just needs to perform up to his seeding in other slams, and defend his titles from last year, and the gap will be considerably close

Injury. And please no "Nadal woulda won AO had he played" - he couldn't win a small HC event when he came back, so let's leave the slam speculation alone.

jackson vile said:

I predict Roger will still have a very healthy lead as the worlds #1 but still losing to Nadal when ever they meet.

It's weird isn't it

Click to expand...

Not really - Nadal's game matches up great against Federer's weaknesses. Federer's game matches up better with the rest of the tour than Nadal's on HC.

jackson vile said:

This could change next year though as I predict Blake to become even better, so that he will be taking up slams and so will Nadal, that will drop Roger, but that is really about it.

Click to expand...

Blake? Taking up slams? C'mon, get serious. Barring injury or ridiculous loss of confidence a la Coria or JCF, there's no way Federer or Nadal are letting go of the #1 and #2. At most they could swap places, but they are light years ahead of the rest of the pack.

Yeah Blake's balls are heavier than Nadal's on hardcourt. Ooops it didn't come out right. Hehe. Anyways, Blake beat him last year and this year. Ancic, Djokovic and Monfils got a better shot at advancing deep at USO and AO than does Nadal...

Blake? Taking up slams? C'mon, get serious. Barring injury or ridiculous loss of confidence a la Coria or JCF, there's no way Federer or Nadal are letting go of the #1 and #2. At most they could swap places, but they are light years ahead of the rest of the pack.

Click to expand...

He's just saying Blake will be in the top 5 and capable of winning major tournys. I agree with this. Although it is an over played story, you do have to keep in mind he was paralized like 2-3 years ago. Think about how much more room he has to improve.

Injury. And please no "Nadal woulda won AO had he played" - he couldn't win a small HC event when he came back, so let's leave the slam speculation alone.

Click to expand...

I Know, and Roger would win because finally he would not suck against Nadal

sotua said:

Not really - Nadal's game matches up great against Federer's weaknesses. Federer's game matches up better with the rest of the tour than Nadal's on HC.

Click to expand...

No this is incorrect and Nadal's points and wins show this

sotua said:

Blake? Taking up slams? C'mon, get serious. Barring injury or ridiculous loss of confidence a la Coria or JCF, there's no way Federer or Nadal are letting go of the #1 and #2. At most they could swap places, but they are light years ahead of the rest of the pack.

Click to expand...

Man you are with out any thought aren't you, Blake ice's Nadal's game, Further more Blake has only been back since the US Open, not even one years yet and he has seen #5 spot and is now #7 doing far far far better than what people like you said he would have done.

Blake continues to make improvments, until that stops he will continue to become better, truth hurts don't it:mrgreen:

I actually think that by the AO next year, Nadal may actually have a shot at overtaking Federer.

Nadal's got 4 big gaps right now:

(1) Almost no points to defend on grass, including Wimbledon
(2) Almost no points at the US Open
(3) No points to defend at Master's Cup
(4) No points from the Aussie Open

And Federer--while he has 8 gazllion points--also has a WHOLE lot to defend.

Could be very interesting by the AO next year.

Click to expand...

The focus on defending points, is one way of looking at the rankings. My perspective is that, it does not appear necessary for Federer, Nadal or any of the other players to defend points from the previous year. All they have to do is perform better and with greater consistency than the competition, in the current year, then they will come out on top. Let's say that Federer loses in the final of this year's US Open and Nadal gets to the quaters. Federer will lose points(because he won it last year) and Nadal will gain them(because he only made 3rd round last year). However, provided Federer continues to consistently go deeper in tournaments than Nadal, he will always be in front of him, no matter how many points he loses. Your position in the rankings, is relative to how well everyone else is doing in the current year, not to how well you did last year.

Whether Nadal overtakes Federer involves many interest 'what if's'. I remember one person who said Federer was unlikely to repeat his slam performances of 2005 shortly after Federer lost in the Aus Open SF 2006. However if people look here

Enough of this crystal ball gazing, as if anyone knows what will happen; hey the fact we don't is a good part of the excitement of sport. I don't really know that Federer will win Wimby and, all the enthusiasm aside, Nadal has yet to fully prove himself on the three other surfaces.