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Winding Up the Rally

(Amarillo, TX) +64 That was the Dow futures read following the jobs report.

And once again our Trading Model kept us out of the financial ditch, although we’ll see how today rolls when trading money comes off over the weekend.

Things had been looking about flat at the open , but that was before today’s “Big Deal of the Day” which is (what else?) the Jobs Report.

Knowing how you hate suspense, here it is, hot off the Labor Department press release:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in wholesale trade but declined in information.

Both the number of unemployed persons (10.5 million) and the unemployment rate (6.7 percent) changed little in February. The jobless rate has shown little movement since December. Over the year, the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate were down by 1.6 million and 1.0 percentage point, respectively.

As usual, the CES Birth –Death Model gets inspected, since it is where jobs are “Estimated” into existence. In this report, of the 175,000 claimed jobs, 124,000 thousand were estimated into existence.

And our ViceGrips and doobies candidate here was 30,000 new jobs in hospitality and leisure. Say what?

Not to be a prick about such nits, but who TF takes a vacation in Feb/March? Help me here…big increase in ski area hiring or a new Wild Waves ride on the LA River or WTF?

And what no one likes to mention is that the 36,000 new jobs in business services have a fair chance of putting in ERP type systems which will provide for more employment whacks down the road.

But, hey. Don’t listen to me. Someone in Washington has to be thanking their lucky stars that the labor participation rate held at 63%.

The U-6 (PhD’s flipping burgers index) was better, too, dropping from 12.7 to 12.6%. All of which would get people excited except that’s down in the statistical noise floor somewhere.

More after this…

Bitcoin Chase

As you know, I have been a skeptic of Bitcoin from the get-go, perhaps because I know a bubble when I see one, but I might still be convinced at some point.

Still, as of this morning, Btcs were bouncing around the $630-$670 range.

What’s working its way through the market now is the problem of wallets and due to the number of coins that have been ripped off lately, the closing of Mt. Gox effectively, and more, that’s a good start.

Around here, it’s not this year that has us worried about a kind of “Day After Tomorrow” return to the Ice Age. No, that would be in 6-winters from now when we will again be at the bottom of a solar cycle. And that one…well….

A couple of readers have asked if the oceans methane hydrates are going to start boiling off and killing people left and right globally.

Again, Ures truly is not worried…if I had $1000 bucks for every end of the world call ever made, I would not be stuck writing this column….and that’d be another one.

Unfortunately, the Internet browsers don’t have mandatory banner that pops up to distinguish between legit concerns and “Charlatan of Fiction – Beware!”

Like so much in advertising, though, I doubt serious regulation will ever come. Without jackboots at the same time…

“Abolish IRS”

While the idea may have some appeal (I mean who likes to pay taxes, right?) the real deal is government isn’t free, welfare isn’t free, the military isn’t free and I don’t mind paying taxes.

On the other hand, when folks like Mitt Romney can afford the tax counsel to afford him a tax rate al third (or more) lower than mine, well, then something is wrong, for sure.

But before I tell you Cruz is a genius for stating the obvious, I want to see how he’d balance the books….and not just on the revenue side.

Go look at how many job would be lost at IRS and all those tax lawyers…and now we’re talking about some additional economic impacts.

I just home Cruz is wise enough to steer between jingoism and a solid look at America’s P&L.

You know what would be a real meaningful thing? See one of the US prez wannabees go talk to Chinese finance bosses and find out what they think. Just sayin…we’re the puppets and we need to check back up the strings a ways…

In the meantime, without more detail could it be JAFLS? (* Just Another Free Lunch Speech?)

Crimea River (of Headlines)

The timeline is still for the crisis to blow large next week (late) or the week after, which may coincide with a blow off market top and our getting on the short side of things, again.

Obamacare Slam

The House has passed a measure which would make the fine for failing to sign up for the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) zero.

But before you go out and pop a keg to celebrate, the House is ruled by the GOP and the Senate may not be so accommodating. So you might want to hold back on the partying.

Or, what the hell…any reason on Fridays, right?

Still this is a minor slam. After all, there’s so much hype and tax police planning been done, there’s no turning back now. Understand this (sad) fact: Once a bureaucracy gears up, no amount of common sense changes things.