Monday, March 17, 2014

Monday Real Quickie

Fister's BP session went well enough that he pitched in a minor league game yesterday. No word on any discomfort or tightness so seems like fans can exhale for a moment. It's still likely that he'll miss his first start of the season given the slow down in Spring, and the fact the Nats can use two days off early in the season to give Fister a nice recovery time (and an easy first opponent in the Marlins)

Assuming you want a rotation of Strasburg, ZNN, Gio, Fister you could open the season thusly

Mets
Stras
DAY OFF
Joarkwiler #1
Joarkwiler #2

Braves
ZNN
Stras
Gio

DAY OFF

Marlins
Fister
Joarkwiler winner
Strasburg

Braves
ZNN
Gio
Fister

Strasburg stays on schedule, Gio an extra day off, ZNN an extra two, the winner of Joarkwiler contest gets 1 or 2 extra days depending. Nats put their best guys on the mound in the first two Braves series. If you really like ZNN, or Gio I suppose, you can go ahead and flip him and Strasburg in these spots. Of course do like I say above and people are interested, flip Strasburg with anyone and people are saying "Why are they babying Strasburg again?! He's such a baby!!" even though everyone but the #1 guy would be getting extra days off.

Either way, think about it Matt. Every game is important but some games are more important that others.

Last fall, one Nationals official compared Detwiler’s possible impact
to Pirates left-hander Justin Wilson, a former starter who in 2013
posted a 2.08 ERA over 73 2/3 innings.

Wilson was a nice piece last year, worth about half a win in the pen. Detwilers 2012, when he was good but not great in the rotation, was worth about 3 times that. Can't really call the Nats on anything since they are basing it we assume on what they are seeing in the spring, but based on what we knew coming into this year, it's not the move I would make. Better hope Jordan or Roark pans out because this has some makings of a mess.

14 comments:

If Fister is delayed more than a week, the Nats have a bit of a pickle in that they play 5 games in a row starting with game 2 at the Mets. So unless they want to start someone on 3 days rest, which I really don't think they'll do, we're stuck with both Joark and Wiler in the rotation during that stretch. As such, I think your rotation is about as good as any with the Joarkwilers facing the Mets rather than Braves. But it does feel odd to have what should be your #5 and #6 guys pitch so early.

I guess the best case scenario would be if Fister could get ready by the third game against the Braves instead of 2 days later against the fish. Then you wouldn't need Joarkwiler #2 and could go:

Donald - that works but it sets up the rotation to be ZNN - Stras - Fister - Gio. Since Detwiler is now pen I guess it matters a little less (won't go RRRLL), but I thought they'd want Gio somewhere in the middle of their Big 4 to break up the handedness.

Harper - on your comment that "Detwilers 2012, when he was good but not great in the rotation, was worth about 3 times that." I agree with your follow-up (they may have new information), but the other thing is obviously how valuable his replacement will be. You can still have Joark starting + Det pen > Det starting + Joark pen regardless of how good Det is in both roles. Obviously I have no idea if this is a reasonable opinion for the team to have.

I wonder how much this has to do with Roark or Jordan doing well vs. no other lefty stepping up for the pen. Zuckerman is reporting this as driven by the feeling Detwiler can be special in the pen. Hmmmm. Not really sure how to take all of this.

What are your thoughts on #5? Zuckerman also mentions Chris Young being in the mix,though that seems like a huge long shot. Probably only keeping his name out there because they like Joarkung better than just Joark. Since Solis was cut, he's no longer in the mix.

My hope is it's Jordan because I think he has better stuff than Roark, but who knows. Roark handles himself well.

In light of Donald's comment, maybe I should have phrased my comment as Harper argues that Det is reasonably a win better in the rotation than in the pen. But if Joark is more than a win better in the rotation than in the pen (perhaps because Joark is not very valuable in the pen given the shortage of lefties) then this is still the right move.

Haper, what is your take on Det's repitoire of pitches? I feel like he throws his fastball around 80% of the time, which probably has a lot to do with hitters batting .400 against him this spring. He needs to either develop another pitch or have more confidence in a breaking ball or change. ZNN, Stras, or Gio dont throw a 4-seam that often. Not a surprise Det was moved to the pen IMO....your take?

Anon 7:09: He had a plus curve (and I think a slider?) when he was a prospect. Somehow he lost both, and the conventional wisdom is that the Nats' pitching system somehow ruined the curveball. I'm not sure how much truth there is to that.

Harper: You say they'd want Gio to break up the handedness. Why? Why does having alternating handedness in starters matter? Your opposing manager is never going to change his roster composition just because you're trotting three righties (or three lefties) out in a single series. And he can change his lineup (within the confines of his 25-man roster) game-by-game. So how do you gain an advantage by going R-L-R-L-R? This isn't a rhetorical question; I honestly just don't get it.

I think since Detwiler throws across his body, they may have been messing with his mechanics because they figured he was an injury waiting to happen. He wasn't done any favors by coming up young either. But that was the Bowden-led group before Rizzo, and (just speculating) the last few years, the club seems more willing to accept a pitcher's approach provided it's successful and they'll just plug in the "binder" rehab if needed.

Cass's point is good, and Det has already done the rotation/pen/rotation move. The other obvious thing is he hasn't held up for a full season, so you do have a chance to leverage the 120 innings in his arm with developing your other guys in that fifth rotation spot, while addressing a weakness elsewhere. It's not as important to have another RH reliever, and there are already two lefties in the rotation. The other thing is, if the flexibility is maintained, there could be a strategic advantage to giving Det a start here and there against LH-leaning lineups and flip roles or say, skip a turn once in a while for Jordan to keep his innings manageable.

While I agree that they seem to be giving up on Det's offspeed experiments too soon, he can still be developing that stuff, and may end up starting quite a bit if the karma flows back against the Nats again this year. Also, if some lefty dominates in the minors, he could figure in the rotation down the stretch if Joark struggles.

My recollection is that Detwiler lost his curve after he came back from the long lay-off with his first injury. I didn't think it was due to the organization messing with his mechanics but I could be wrong. In any case, while I also prefer Detwiler as the #5 starter, I'm starting to come around to this move, as long as he accepts it. While Roark was fine in the pen last year, I don't think any teams would fear facing him. There's a chance that Detwiler could turn into that fearsome guy if he's through 97 from the opposite side. Maybe, hopefully, they see that kind of Kimbrelesque potential that we don't have with anyone else at the moment.