I would like to hear what you smart, well-informed friends of mine have to say about Android/gphone v. iPhone. Speculating about wimax is okay too. This time next year, what do you think the popular cellular cutting edge will be? Where if at all do the audiences overlap? Two years out, when the original iPhone 3G contracts run out, how many will swap to andriod?

Android/Gphone has the potential to annihilate the iPhone. Not because it's a better platform, but because it's a more open platform. Apple can fix that in a second by opening iPhone up quite a bit more. Will they? Probably not. They generally don't. That's what killed Apple last time, back in the days of System 7, and I suspect that's what will eventually kill them this time.

This is kind of like saying "We don't like your ambrosia! We think it's not quite sweet enough. I mean, you haven't delivered it yet. But we think it *won't* be sweet enough. Instead we're going to go eat this pile of poop."

The iPhone SDK wasn't released until long after the iPhone was released. It continues to be extremely closed, with a restrictive license and restrictive deployment system.

Meanwhile, the Android SDK is available. The newest version hasn't been released yet . . . but then again, neither has the phone. And Google's committed to making it far, far more open, at launch, than the iPhone SDK is even today.

The Android SDK isn't being handled perfectly, but even with how ham-handed they're being, it's far ahead of the iPhone SDK. The only question is whether they can build up enough momentum to overtake iPhone before they can the project, given their relatively late launch.

As near as I can tell, pretty much. They likely plan to sell the hardware and services related to the platform (for example, "here is the official Android store, you can buy stuff from us and we make it really easy") while leaving the platform itself as open as possible.