At Queen's Park, the Ontario provincial Liberals are now officially quaking in their little scarlet booties. As well they should.

But what about Ottawa?

One of the most interesting things about the tsunami of grumpiness that propelled Rob Ford into the mayor's office in Toronto, and which now hangs like a sword over Premier Dalton McGuinty's neck, is it hasn't hit Ottawa.

Indeed, though the federal Conservatives made one goof after another last summer, they're still marginally ahead in the polls.

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff can't seem to get a leg up. This despite that he's aired a new Internet ad that makes him appear warmer, more empathetic and generally a nicer fellow than Prime Minister Stephen Harper has ever been, even on Christmas morning.

Partly, it's this: The Conservatives are trying very, very hard these days to keep out of the way.

Witness their very quick step back from initiating a new debate over capital punishment in the wake of the Russell Williams trial.

No thank you, said Public Safety Minister Vic Toews: That debate's over.

Move on.

Canadians haven't moved on, not by a long shot. But as far as the Conservatives are concerned, wrenching debates over social issues are a distraction. They're focused on bread and butter - jobs and taxes.

And here's where we get to the core of why Harper, though an incumbent and not especially popular, is keeping afloat, while Ignatieff sinks after each temporary rise.

Harper and his people, though huge spenders and borrowers, have always spoken the language of small government and resentment of the bureaucracy.

Ignatieff and his people, though they have a far better track record of fiscal prudence than any Conservative, still speak the language of big government and respect for the bureaucracy.

That's their problem. If they don't change it they can't win.

Scratch a Liberal these days, wind them up a little bit, and they immediately wax poetic about unity, hope, the Just Society, Pearson, peacekeeping and so on. They can't seem to help themselves.

Witness Justin Trudeau when he wing-suited in to rescue George Smitherman's mayoral campaign at the 11th hour. They scratched him. He waxed.

"Around the world there's a battle going on between the politics of fear and division and the politics of hope and responsibility," the scion of Liberalism warbled. "Canadians are better than that. Torontonians are better than that. We will not be divided."

Oh, the euphoria! Torontonians responded with a collective eye-roll and a yawn as they hustled off to vote for Ford in unprecedented numbers.

The Conservatives are a little nauseating with their constant pandering, populist references to the Tim Hortons crowd. But there's a big dollop of political intelligence in this - especially in Ontario.

After seven years of Dalton McGuinty and David Miller - over-spending, over-taxing, over-governing, micro-managing, lots of windy, politically correct palaver - Ontarians are in the mood for blunt common sense. And we're a third of the population of Canada.

There's a way through this for the federal Liberals and it's not complicated: They could cast themselves as populists. Set aside all idealistic mega-projects and start talking honestly about how to cut costs, especially in health care.