Hadopi Accused Of 'Massaging' The Numbers To Make Anti-Piracy Activity Look Better

from the oops dept

We just wrote about Hadopi's back slapping report about how much it had reduced "piracy." We noted that what was really telling was the fact that revenue was still declining. However, as more people look at the details of the Hadopi report, even the numbers they provide are looking less and less credible. Monica Horten from IPtegrity looks at a few different sources that raise serious questions about the Hadopi report. What the analysis shows is that P2P file sharing is still increasing in France. The "decline" is not in absolute numbers, but in relative numbers, compared to other sources -- such as streaming. And streaming has gone up quite a bit. An analysis in the French publication Le Figaro highlights how P2P and streaming appear to have basically flip flopped:

On top of that, France Telecom, who has said that P2P use continues to grow, has also noted that it saw "a marked increase in levels of encrypted traffic since the Hadopi notice-sending began," suggesting that there's plenty of file sharing going on via encrypted channels that Hadopi simply can't track.

Furthermore, Horten points to a Numerama report that highlights the fact that Hadopi's numbers come from the IFPI and ALPA. ALPA is a French anti-piracy organization. In other words, organizations who have a long history of fudging their own numbers. You would think, if the data was really showed that Hadopi was having an impact, its numbers would be a lot stronger.

If it is possible for other people to say that "peer to peer" file sharing is still increasing how is not possible to track it? This seems to be contradictory to your assertion that "there's plenty of file sharing going on via encrypted channels that Hadopi simply can't track". If no one can track these channels then how are they claiming that P2P is increasing.

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You missed a key word there, suggesting. It's not guaranteed that's it's P2P, but when the known P2P traffic goes down, yet encrypted traffic goes up, it's not unreasonable to assume that a good bit of that traffic is P2P.

Just as I predicted...

...multiple times previously, when I said that those of us who built the Internet would not sit idly by while governments and corporations meddled with it. We've already rolled out encrypted P2P networks, now we're busy tunneling them through other protocols, using steganographic techniques to hide them, and even using sneakernet (in some regions where bandwidth is scarce -- never underestimate the bandwidth of a backpack full of USB drives).

Hadopi is guessing and fabricating. They have no idea what's actually going on right under their noses.

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Yes, that's it, all of a sudden there was a surge of child porn sharing on encrypted traffic. Let's jump to that instead of the logical conclusion, piracy traffic drops, encrypted traffic jumps, hmm, those wouldn't have anything to do with each other, move along.

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This is not a show for the people is a show for politicians, the people know Hadopi is just BS, because everybody can test those assumptions just by pirating something and it is not that difficult at all even in France.

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It doesn't matter really, Hadopi is a failure either way, if it decrease piracy and revenues decline it strongly suggests the problem lies elsewhere not on sharing(aka piracy), if it doesn't work and pirates just moved on to somewhere else, you still don't get those people to pay for anything.

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You are looking at track the wrong way here. They tracked traffic of p2p and encrypted channels. Mike never stated they couldn't track that (Reading comprehension...it helps!). They can't track what the contents of the encrypted files are, though...and yes, Mike makes an assumption that the big increase in encrypted traffic is mostly due to file sharing going underground. Just like anonymous shill trolls say MOST of the content on MegaUpload is infringing without any evidence and only speculation. But, hey, Mike is making a conclusion from the facts. Doesn't mean he is correct...it is just an opinion blog, mind you.

Re: Re: Just as I predicted...

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I'm curious as to why you feel it is dishonest to suggest something that is very probable? Much more probable in fact then the child porn suggestion given above. In fact, with all of the accusations of entitlement thrown at file sharers, why do you doubt for even a second that they would stop sharing that which they feel should be theirs freely simply because some silly law got passed allowing for disconnections, especially when it is so easy to simply hide your traffic and continue unabated?

"Massaging the numbers..."

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"The point is, it could be recipes, it could be vacation photos, who knows?"

And why would any of those things be spiking now? Piracy has a reason to be moving more heavily to encryption at the moment, and that means that the piracy explanation is more likely than any other random use of data you can think of.

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actually, it's not. I encrypt my traffic, and I am a filthy pirate. We filthy pirates have been training other filthy pirates on how to circumvent your incredibly expensive laws with free tools for a decade now. I myself have taught at least 50 filthy pirates how to evade your non-technical irrelevancy for over 10 years now.

So, I would say, it IS safe to say that an increase in encrypted traffic is surely file sharing, what are you going to do now, outlaw encryption?

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This is true. We can no longer claim to have empirically proven that a drop in piracy leads to an increase in sales. Still, proving that these measures don't do anything is almost as good. It's one of those things, and either way Hadopi isn't helping anyone.

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"It's bullshit, pure and simple."

Damn, aren't you the hypocrite. You accuse Mike of making an assumption that P2P traffic is being encrypted, and then unequivocally state that this is bullshit. You don't say "I think this is unlikely", you make a statement of fact that Mike is wrong. So if Mike is simply making an assumption, isn't that exactly what you're doing? You offer no proof, and simply fall back on the old child porn chestnut. Lame.

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Actually I think they should totally continue this sort of thing, since it *obviously* doesn't harm pirates, but does wake up the not-so-tech-savvy general population, cause lots of THEM are going to end up being cut off. Now we just have to wait for the backlash.

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Yes, that is the point (which you seem to miss). It's equally dishonest to claim it to be child porn as to claim it to be P2P - because we just don't know. Mike wants it to be something, and he is willing to hang the story on it.

It's bullshit, and he knows it. He would hang the MPAA for making similar claims.

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When empirical proof is impossible to acquire, the next thing you use is logic, not a retreat to "don't even think about trying to explain this". The most logical reason for the increase in encryption is that previously unencrypted traffic is now being encrypted. As there hasn't been a decrease in unencrypted child porn, there's no reason for recipe sharers to be running to encryption services, and there has been a decrease in unencrypted piracy, the most logical conclusion is that piracy is now more widely encrypted. This is what you're supposed to do when direct evidence is not available.

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When empirical proof is impossible to acquire, the next thing you use is logic, not a retreat to "don't even think about trying to explain this". The most logical reason for the increase in encryption is that previously unencrypted traffic is now being encrypted. As there hasn't been a decrease in unencrypted child porn, there's no reason for recipe sharers to be running to encryption services, and there has been a decrease in unencrypted piracy, the most logical conclusion is that piracy is now more widely encrypted. This is what you're supposed to do when direct evidence is not available.

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Looking at the downloads of subtitles France is strong on piracy still, heck they are at the top sub makers.

Every single page of download for software saw and increase from France from users seeking anonymous encrypted ways to continue downloading and you are saying there is not a good chance that those are the same people who pirated before?

Re: "If no one can track these channels then how are they claiming that P2P is increasing."

The data packet headers are not encrypted. Only the data within the packet. So, it's possible to derive what kind of network protocol it may be using. Including the source and destination IP addresses. But, not the data encapsulated within it. ;)