State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the GOP nomination outright on Tuesday , setting up a general election match-up against Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in one of the top Senate races in the country. Even though Hagan’s polling numbers have been mediocre at best, we gave her a slight edge in the race because of uncertainty in the Republican primary. But now that Tillis is the nominee and has avoided a costly July runoff that could have pushed him farther to the right, Hagan does not have a significant advantage in the race.