A framework for a New Europe

Moscow is not fighting Brussels over influence in Cyprus, which does not have to choose between Russia and the EU, as some journalists with a penchant for dramatization have written

The financial crisis in Cyprus has made
headlines in Russia for days. At first, the Russian media were surprised by
Europe’s seemingly irrational and destructive approach to the relatively small
Cypriot problem, but the surprise soon turned to anger at the fact that Europe
had informed Russia about its decision post-factum and neglected to consult it,
even though it was aware of Russia’s interests in Cyprus.

The passions gradually cooled. Some Western
journalists were even surprised that instead of threatening retribution after
the bailout plans were made public, the Kremlin instructed the Russian Finance
Ministry to restructure Cyprus’s debts and to help the EU and Cyprus settle the
crisis.

This approach contrasts sharply with the
mood last week, when Cypriot Finance Minister Michael Sarris returned from
Moscow empty-handed. Many suspect that a deal involving Russian interests was
made some time in between. This may be the case, but we will never know for
sure, because Vladimir Putin and Jose Manuel Barroso discussed the situation
behind closed doors. It is more likely that the Kremlin reviewed the situation
and came to an adequate conclusion.

Moscow is not fighting Brussels over
influence in Cyprus, which does not have to choose between Russia and the EU,
as some journalists with a penchant for dramatization wrote last week. Cyprus
is part of Europe’s political and economic landscape, and even if it decides to
leave the euro zone, which remains a possibility, it will not have to ply the
high seas in search of partners.

Russia knew that assuming responsibility
for trying to save Cyprus after the EU and Germany had presented their
ultimatum would complicate the political situation and possibly deprive Moscow
of its investments in Cyprus for good.

Cyprus’s promises of supplying assets in
return for Russian help were not entirely honest. If the republic were to
default, its assets would become less valuable, but on the other hand, the EU
would have likely prevented Cyprus from handing its assets over to Russia.
Therefore, Russia decided to wait for an agreement between Cyprus and the EU.

It was also a wise decision to offer
constructive assistance. Moscow is not interested in Cyprus’s financial
collapse – at least not in the immediate future – not so much because of its
assets, but because of Cyprus’s role in organizing financial flows into the
Russian economy. At issue are not the criminal origins of these funds, but the
drawbacks of Russian legislation that make it easier for businesses to work
through offshore accounts.

Russia has unwittingly played a major role
in settling the crisis in Cyprus, whose creditors acted tough because of
Russian assets and companies registered in that offshore haven. It is difficult
to imagine the EU proposing to confiscate part of bank deposits in any other
country. But the presumption that “dirty” Russian money allegedly constitutes
the bulk of Cyprus’s assets encouraged the EU to insist on that unprecedented
measure. Europe claimed that foreign crooks, rather than honest Europeans,
would suffer as a result. This is a vivid example of dirty political
technologies being put to use.

It appears that Russia, which is officially
Europe’s strategic partner, is seen as an aggravating circumstance and an
additional problem, rather than as a means of resolving the issue. It is
noteworthy that this solution was mostly advocated by Germany, which has been
promoting Russia’s interests in Europe. Could this be an element of Angela
Merkel’s election campaign? Russia’s distorted image and reputation in Europe have
become material factors influencing practical economic and political decisions.

The Cypriot problem is not only important
because of the decision to make honest private depositors pay for the
irresponsible policy of the national government or supranational institutions –
although this decision has come as a shock. This is the first time that a
sovereign government has been not simply ordered to change its economic policy,
as in the case of Greece, Ireland and Spain, but to abandon the very economic
model of its existence. The decision on Cyprus did not aim to secure financial
rehabilitation and budgetary discipline or to cut spending. German officials
said openly that the Cypriot model is unviable, and hence must be dismantled.
This explains the merciless ultimatum and the refusal to negotiate a
compromise, although the €17 billion Cyprus has asked for is peanuts compared
to the hundreds of billions spent on bailing out Greece and other troubled
states.

The architects of European politics have
probably seen, at long last, that cosmetic measures will not help and that the
system will collapse without a thorough upgrade. Unfortunately for Cyprus, it
has been chosen as a site for testing this new approach, which is based on a
grim choice: either honor your donors’ (that is, Germany’s) instructions, or
jump into the financial abyss. The example of Cyprus is designed to show all
potential losers that the time for games is over and that it’s time to obey.

Germany is apparently tired of trying to
rectify the mistakes of the 2000s, which saw a slew of hasty and foolish
decisions to promote and expand integration. But dissatisfaction with Berlin’s
diktat has grown exponentially and will continue to grow, because Germany is
only now emerging from the shadow where it has been hiding since the mid 20th
century. It is impossible to say if this new age will lead to the development
of a powerful European core, which will dictate its rules to the periphery, or
if the EU will split into opposing groups. But everyone senses its momentous
importance.

Russia’s plans also depend on what happens
in the EU. The Cypriot crisis has highlighted two elements of relations in
Europe: the very strong, mutual dependence of Russia and the EU, and also the
lack of mechanisms for their normal interaction. Despite a large number of
formal cooperation institutions, which officials love to pay tribute to,
tensions between Russia and the EU have grown in a situation that has a direct
bearing on their interests, whereas they should have held consultations to
search for a joint solution to the problem at hand.

The relations that these institutions have
been developing over the past 20 years resemble an empty nutshell. Its contents
have dried up, and it is unclear if a new goal can be found for these institutions.
There is hope, though, that now that honest efforts are being taken to rebuild
Europe, these cooperation institutions will be overhauled to serve the
interests of all closely interconnected parties, rather than continue to
simulate progress for the benefit of officials, as has so often been the case
in the past.