In the near future, micro-UAVs will experience the most growth in the defense industry, as their surveillance capabilities will be highly sought after in a world of asymmetric warfare.

Furthermore, micro-UAVs will develop the capability to execute lethal force on the battlefield, as infantry and special operations forces develop an acceptance of unmanned technologies. This shift will initially be imperfectly implemented though, as a learning curve exists at the senior leadership level of the military and the Department of Defense.

Consider Figure 2 from a recently declassified Air Force Report, which details the MAV capabilities that are desired in the future: (see figure page 7)

ii. Strike Capability

Another capability that we examined in depth was the ability of a MAV to execute lethal force. We began with the hypothesis that in the near future increased payload capacities would allow MAVs to deploy some specially adapted weapons system. Our most recent research illustrates that although there is a desire to weaponize MAVs, payload capacity is not increasing fast enough to make this a reality. Thus, AeroVironment led an effort to develop a small unmanned aerial system referred to as the Switchblade (pictured below), which is small enough to be carried in a backpack, can be launched into the air through a tube, can stream real-time video, and carries a small warhead that explodes on impact. Thus, the system is designed to be a small, unmanned Kamikaze capable of eliminating small groups of individuals and light vehicles. AeroVironment received $4.9 million for this project in 2011 from DARPA, $5.1 million from the U.S. Army on March 20, 2012, and the company predicts that the device will be carried by American soldiers in 1-2 years [10].

This prediction, with regards to UAVs, is in line with the Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap released by the Department of Defense, which predicts that the Predator and Global Hawk platforms (the major full size UAV systems used today) will be in service until 2030. (see future UAV roadmap page 10)