/m/hof

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i think al has a good case. argument as best hitter in baseball for an extended time. led league in various hitting categories. mvp and multiple top 5 finishes. key player on two pennant winners and one championship team. everybody likes him.

#5: Yes, but if he suddenly drops off a cliff in 2013 and retires in 2016 after four mediocre-to-poor seasons--far from unheard of for a fat guy as he crosses 30, by the way--his HOF chances would very likely be worse than if his career was ended right now by a catastrophic injury. And either way, the Triple Crown is going to give his candidacy a huge boost with the voters.

And either way, the Triple Crown is going to give his candidacy a huge boost with the voters.

I've said this before, but I could almost see some traditionalists voting for Cabrera to enter the Hall of Fame because they would falsely think it shows their superiority to saber-types who "obviously" don't value Cabrera and wouldn't vote for him.

If he puts up Dale Murphy's post-cliff (without era adjustment) and then calls it a career, he ends up with 2358 hits, 409 HR, a 293/369/512 slash line with an OPS+ of about 135 with a bit more than half his games at 3B and a WAR of about 46. I guess that's borderline, but he's 2 years younger than Murphy was when he hit the wall, and if you give him Murphy's age 29 and 30 seasons in addition to the decline, you're now talking about 2688 hits, 482 HR, and more like 57 WAR. Is there anyone else who's a better bet to make the HOF who hasn't turned 30 yet?

Bagwell will make it eventually but he's not having an easy time of it.

Cabrera's career to date is also quite similar to Berkman's first 6500 PA (44 WAR, 147 OPS+), Giambi (43 WAR, 149 OPS+) or Helton (52 WAR, 144 OPS+). Cabrera's HoF chances are a lot better because he's 4 years younger than those guys were and is quite likely to be sitting on 60 WAR by the time his age 33 season is finished. Starting with Bonds in 1986, there have been 11 players (not incl Cabrera) in that time with at least 40 WAR and a 140 OPS+ in their first 10 years (roughly 6000-6700 PA). Even ignoring roids, only 7 of those 11 would make the HoF (W Clark already passed over, I don't like Giambi, Berkman or Helton's chances). By the way, my criteria have missed Vlad by 6 PA, so he's a 12th ... I think he'll be borderline but, if forced to choose, I'd guess he'll get in.

HoF voters aren't rational enough to make those connections of course, so Cabrera would probably sail right in.

Harvey's this is not universal really. Hopefully he has the drinking thing completely under control now, but when he was drinking, he was a pretty mean drunk. I won't regale you with "insider" details. But it's not much of a secret in baseball. Like I said, hopefully he has the demon under control.

He's on pace to end up as the best Venezuelan player in MLB history (and so is Felix Hernandez). Right now, the best is probably Abreu or Santana. I'm a little surprised that they haven't had a clear-cut HOFer yet, although Aparicio's in.

Sure and if he were to die in a plane crash taking aid to some natural disaster, all his current professional admiration, plus immediately filling in the missing years, plus the appreciation for how he died would probably be more than enough to get him over the line.

If he has a career-ending injury then the writers have 5 years to get over their man crush ... he still might sail in a la Puckett.

But if he puts up three years of "crap" starting this season, he's a guy with 8000 PA, maybe 400 HR who's now disappointing.

It happened to Dale Murphy so it can happen to Cabrera. It happened to Orlando Cepeda too. It happened to Juan Gone -- yes, we know he wasn't HoF-worthy but he had 2 MVPs, more HR and about the same number of RBI as Cabrera through 29. It might happen to Vlad. It looks like it's happening to Walker but he's probably not similar enough.

You could argue it happened to Dick Allen but there was a lot of other stuff going on there. You could argue it happened to Santo but he never won the MVP. I often wonder if it would have happened to Banks if he hadn't been able to hang on as long as he did.

There's very little chance of any of those scenarios coming to pass of course.

IIRC Kaline is OTR as saying Morris is a borderline no and Trammell and Whitaker should both definitely be in. I don't know his stand on the Wallbanger's manager. Cash was a HOF locker room presence and Gibson is a HOF asshat. Ask Bauer or Upton (Or any of dozens of ex-Tigers and/or Dodgers).

@5: Not getting the Vlad at two and three years older comparison. Why not use other players through 29? As a hitter only, not saying he's the same baseball player, he's a dead ringer for Frank Robinson. Sure he may fall off a cliff or suffer a career ending injury, but a normal career arc from here on out gives him HOF numbers for a corner IF. I don't think enough HOF voters are gong o penalize him for being a poor defender and base runner if he ends up with 500+ HR and 2B, around 1500 runs and well over 1500 RBI, and quite a few hits as well.