Nicaragua

An untimely death

A setback for those who would challenge Daniel Ortega

NOTHING upsets an electoral calculus as dramatically as the sudden death of one of the candidates. At least Herty Lewites, the centre-left contender in Nicaragua's election in November, died of a heart attack rather than from an assassin's bullet—a fate not unknown in Latin America. But his death adds to the suspense surrounding one of the most closely-watched votes in Latin America this year. It may increase the chances of a return to power for Daniel Ortega, the leader of the leftist Sandinistas who governed Nicaragua from 1979 to 1990.

Mr Lewites was himself a former Sandinista, who served as tourism minister in the 1980s before becoming a popular mayor of Managua, the capital. He wanted the Sandinistas to become a modern social-democratic force. When he challenged Mr Ortega, whose politics remain those of the hard left, he was kicked out of the party. With other moderates, he formed the Sandinista Renovation Movement.

An opinion poll last month by CID-Gallup placed Mr Lewites third, with 15% of the vote, behind Mr Ortega with 23%. On the face of things, his removal will help Mr Ortega. That is because the right is divided between Eduardo Montealegre, a young businessman who split from the reactionary Progressive Liberal party, and José Rizo, a stalwart of that party.

Mr Lewites will be replaced as the Renovation Movement's candidate by Edmundo Jarquín. He is an intelligent technocrat, but lacks Mr Lewites's record as a vote-getter. So it is just possible that Mr Montealegre, rather than Mr Ortega, might be the main beneficiary of Mr Lewites's demise, which has removed a powerful rival for the centre ground of politics.

Mr Ortega stood in each of the past three presidential elections, losing to the Liberals each time. The Liberals, no less than the Sandinistas, are in need of renewal. They remain in thrall to Arnoldo Alemán, a corrupt former president. The CID-Gallup poll showed that a third of respondents were still undecided. The untimely death of Mr Lewites has robbed the left of its best chance of successful modernisation. Maybe the right will now achieve that first.