Infomagic Response to csy2k Poll Question, 3/26/99

I am considerably more pessimistic now than in any of the previous
surveys. I am lowering my Eastabrook number because, after a few mind experiments, I have come to the conclusion that my preparations are not even close to enough to ensure survival. I am now rethinking my preparations with a much heavier emphasis on mobility and the use of force. Water is now my critical factor.

As for the problem itself, I have seen _no_ significant improvement
(including Yourdon's about-face). If anything, I would say that the
problem is _worse_ now than a year ago. All of the "great news" that
we hear is, essentially, Bravo Sierra (bullshit). _Nothing_ has been
done to realistically address the only remaining possible solution of
contingency planning and all attempts to do so are written off as
irresponsible "hoarding".

Y2K has been likened to the Titanic -- a technologically unsinkable
ship with just a "slight" design flaw. In reality, it's the other way
around. Y2K is the iceberg and the problem is the U.S.S. (UnSinkable Ship) Enterprise. It's the economy, stupid, and it always has been. Iceberg dead ahead, Sir,9 months and closing! And nobody's changing course (neither did the Titanic until it was too late).

It doesn't matter if we "fix" the Y2K problem (and I've already said,
categorically, that we can't). It is the (realistic) perception of the
general population that we _haven't_ which will grow as we get closer to the day itself. This will cause a loss of faith in both the
banking system and the stock market, leading to a run on both banks
and mutual funds. The biggest economic collapse in history, bar none!

Perhaps the greatest irony of all is that futile government and
business (banking) attempts to avert the loss of faith is _precisely_
what will cause it. The right time to panic is when "they" say you
don't need to, and that's what the sheeple will do! Just ask Henry
Kissinger.

And that's just the beginning. In addition, we have other minor
problems like coincident increases in sunspots and meteors. And what about Kosovo, Iraq, North Korea, Japan, internal problems in Russia? The Klinton treason with China and their actions _inside_ the United States (smuggling arms to California street gangs)? Do you really think that all of this is just coincidence?

It is said that the first person to realize the Titanic was definitely
going to sink was the engineer who designed her. I say that the first
to realize this was the One who designed the iceberg and put it in the
right place at the right time. I was just one of His junior designers
on a dozen or so systems, but I know for a fact that Y2k is just the
tip of the iceberg.

Answers

All - as promised, I'll be attempting the survey again. This will be
the same as the last with the three sets of questions.

Below are the previous results followed by the survey itself. For
those new to the survey, there is no cutoff of the voting at 5 on the
Edwards' survey. You may vote higher than 5 as the questions are
purposely subjective. Commentary is welcome. Non-geeks are welcome to participate.

2 - Larger town (up to 1 or maybe 2 million depending on surrounds).
2 weeks food plus some basics. Computer geek with other skills.

1 - New York, Washington, London. No pantry, takeaways! A private y2k compliant helicopter brings this down a few points.

Infomagic survey -

So, in this survey, I would like to suggest a very simple score in the range of zero to one, as a decimal, to any precision you please.
Zero means no significant impact (bump in the road) and one means the extinction of the human race. .5 (or .50 or .500) means you think it will be halfway between these extremes.

Well, he lost credibility with me by saying Yourdon did an about-face.
He should have apologized and corrected that immediately. Either it
is a sloppy mistake, or he's an idiot. I haven't seen anybody evolve
as well, rationally, or clearly as Mr. Ed Yourdon, who details his
opinions with excellent essays and shares them with all of us. This
Infomagic is not as sensible or balanced or helpful or practical as Ed
Yourdon. He is more of a Misinfomajik.

I may be wrong ;-) but shouldn't he have said DeJager? instead of
doling out DeJabs at Ed?

Here we are throwing hundres of billions of dollars at remediation,
and Infomagic says we're making things worse? That our efforts are
making no improvements? ALL the good news is BS? Nobody is doing
contingency planning? Compliance announcements by banks will cause
runs on banks? And he knows all this for a fact?

Hoo boy! If good news bit Infomagic's hand off, he'd deny he ever had
a hand in the first place.

He suggests we change course, eh? He doesn't suggest a new course, I
notice. I wonder if the course he'd suggest would be precisely what
we're really doing?

in light of that he believes that contingency planning was the
only way to go. contingency planning at the national/financial/
industrial level is less than adequate.

exacerbating this situation is the 'spin' offered to the public
on a daily basis. as we all know most people have no idea whom
to believe. instead of advising the people to prepare they have
been told...no big problem, a winter storm. a prepared populous
is one that will *not* panic...they are not prepared.

when the light 'dawns' the public will go berserk...hence the
bank runs and the crash of the markets.