well the NHC pulled the trigger like we all figured as of 5pm update. seems like the model runs are agreeing on a more nw track. ill be curious to see if there are any westward tracks. i dont buy the nw movement yet.

Well I was off by one day in pulling the trigger on Erica.I think we will have to wait till late tonight or till Wednesday for the models to get a handle on Erica.Right now they are all over the place.Some move the HIGH more west and block it from going north others do not.Erica is something to watch closely if you live on the east coast.This will be an interesting week.

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well the NHC pulled the trigger like we all figured as of 5pm update. seems like the model runs are agreeing on a more nw track. ill be curious to see if there are any westward tracks. i dont buy the nw movement yet.

Me either. The system is so weak and sheared, that should keep it on a western track. Of course, models forecast it to become a hurricane. The official forecast has it weakening despite the model forecasts, yet moving more NW in agreement with them... which seems odd to me.

Edit:
Well, over the last few hours it seems Erika has gotten much better organized, to be at least. There is a big blowup of convection where I thought the LLC was.

Ed's right. I've been looking at the Visible Imagery over the last few hours and there is a closed LLC right on the western edge of convection. If you draw streamers, it's elongated but there. I'm fine with NHC pulling the trigger on Erika. I can't remember the last time a depression was called looking like this, but they had to have debated about this, but adhering to the strict definition it's at least a depression, so I'm cool with it. I found some Navy forecast wind shear data and the US is closed for tropical weather for at least the next 4 to 5 days. This is a tough call one way or the other. Who knows they could go back out there and not find a center and then what, post Gale force warnings, not Tropical Storm watches; what's the difference to someone who knows the wind is blowing rather stiff?

Brand new recon fix has the pressure down as much as 4 mb since the last fix two hours ago. It also found the center has moved slightly east of north.... which means the convection continues to try to suck it in.

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Brand new recon fix has the pressure down as much as 4 mb since the last fix two hours ago. It also found the center has moved slightly east of north.... which means the convection continues to try to suck it in.

Interesting, I'm looking at the HDOBs and seeing very high pressures, but I also saw a 1004 in a vortex. It's definately looking a bit better on satellite.

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