Kazakhstan

Rise and fall

The declining fortunes of the opposition

THE peaceful ousting last November of Georgia's long-time president, Edward Shevardnadze, is much admired among the radical opposition in Kazakhstan. A senior Georgian official, attending the inaugural congress on February 21st of the opposition party, Democratic Choice, in Almaty, the former Kazakhstani capital, received a standing ovation. But Georgia's “rose revolution” is unlikely to be repeated in Kazakhstan.

The rise and fall of Democratic Choice, which burst on to the political scene more than two years ago and rocked the establishment on its heels, is a pointer to the reason. Having started life as a protest movement, it turned itself last week into a full-fledged party. But this is a sign of its decline, rather than its strength, plus an indirect victory for Nursultan Nazarbaev, the country's authoritarian president.

Democratic Choice was created in November 2001 by senior government officials and leading bankers disgruntled over the increasing power of the president's son-in-law, Rakhat Aliev. The standing of the people involved and the financial resources at their disposal quickly made the movement a force to be reckoned with. The penniless traditional opposition—long-standing democrats, old-style communists and hard-up pensioners—clambered gratefully on to the bandwagon.

Two months later, however, the more moderate elements broke away to set up a political party, Ak Zhol. Democratic Choice soon experienced further problems, culminating in the sentencing of its two leaders to several years in jail, and, last November, its deregistration as a recognised organisation. Having decided to become a political party, Democratic Choice hopes to participate in elections this autumn. But whether it will be allowed to register remains to be seen. And if it is, that could be a problem for those of its supporters who already belong to other parties.

In any case, Democratic Choice has already been overshadowed by the less confrontational Ak Zhol, which focuses on economic reforms and appeals to the growing middle class. Its success is believed to have triggered the creation a few months ago of another party, Asar, headed by Mr Nazarbaev's daughter, Dariga. She has already declared that it will win half the seats in parliament.