Friday, March 14, 2014

2014 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 03/13/14

As we continue with Championship Week here is the way we see
things shaping up.We will use this last
breakdown moving forward: Teams bolded and underlined are LOCKS; “ * “
indicates a certain one bid league; new non-major conference champions will
come with quick description about their resume; bubble is discussed only at
bottom of entry.

*Horizon
MILWAUKEE: the Panthers put together quite the run in the Horizon
League Tournament including knocking off the 1, 3 & 4 seeds to seal their
bid.UWM ranked 2nd to last
in adjusted SBPI in the Horizon league, good for #181 in the country – one of
the lower ranks that will be in the field.Their most noteworthy action in OOC play was a 26 pt loss at Wisconsin
and an 11 pt home win over Northern Iowa – not exactly impressive.With an RPI hovering close to #140 the
Panthers will be on the 15 line most likely.

*Ivy: Harvard

*MAAC: Manhattan

*MAC: Toledo

*MEAC: North Carolina Central

*Missouri Valley:
Wichita State

Mountain West: San
Diego State, New Mexico

*Northeast MOUNT
ST. MARYS: the Mountaineers shocked the Robert Morris Colonials on
Tuesday evening to seal the NEC automatic bid.In the SBPI those two teams were nearly identical, with just a 0.1
difference in power rating; MTSTM’s adjusted ranking is #205, which will be
amongst the worst in the field.Before
their win over RPI #121 Robert Morris to earn the title their only prior Top
150 win on the season was against #142 American University by 4 points in late
November.Expect the Mount to earn a 16
seed, potentially taking part in the opening round action in Dayton.

*Ohio Valley:
Eastern Kentucky

Pac 12: Arizona,
UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford

*Patriot AMERICAN:
American shocked BU on their home-court to earn the Patriot League’s automatic
bid.The only Top 150 wins the Eagles
have all season are twice over BU & three wins over Holy Cross; they played
a road game in OOC play against one NCAA tourney team (Ohio State) and lost by
11.AU ranked 5th in the
Patriot in SBPI, #233 in the country in adjusted SBPI – one of the worst
ratings of likely tourney teams.The
Eagles will be either a 15 or likely 16 seed.

SEC: Florida,
Kentucky

*Southern: Wofford

*Southland: Stephen F. Austin

*SWAC: Texas Southern

*Summit NORTH
DAKOTA STATE: the Bison took care of business and earned the Summit’s
automatic bid, and with their high RPI of #36 could be in line for a 12 or 13
seed.In the SBPI NDST rates #41 on a
non-adjusted basis, and #84 adjusted for SOS, which is pretty strong for a
non-major conference team – they are slotted just above NCST, Seton Hall, UNLV
and Missouri to name a few.NDST did
beat CAA champ Delaware but lost to CUSA favorite Southern Mississippi at home
by 1, and at Ohio State by 17.

*Sun Belt: Georgia State

West Coast: Gonzaga,
BYU

*WAC: New Mexico State

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS
& LOCKS: 61

Currently I project 61
of the 68 bids are earned
(Xavier, Colorado & Stanford added).

We currently have 10 teams that are in the mix for 7 open
bids (St. Johns, Georgetown, Arkansas, California removed).

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.

Next we will show a matrix that contains all 10 bubble teams
(in order) & their key metrics:

RECORD VS RPI

RATINGS

L12

R/N

OOC

SUB 150

TEAMS

RECORD

T 25

T 50

T 100

RPI

BPI

SBPI

RECORD

RECORD

SOS

RECORD

ST JOSEPHS

21-9

2-4

4-5

7-8

44

58

62

8-4

10-5

158

11-1

DAYTON

23-9

3-2

4-5

10-6

38

50

43

10-2

10-5

92

11-2

NEBRASKA

19-11

3-6

4-6

8-8

41

56

53

10-2

4-10

91

6-0

TENNESSEE

19-11

1-4

3-6

7-8

42

32

5

8-4

6-8

40

7-0

SMU

23-9

1-4

4-5

4-6

54

34

76

7-5

8-8

306

14-2

ARIZONA ST

21-11

1-3

4-7

8-9

43

39

45

6-6

5-10

241

8-0

FLORIDA ST

19-12

2-7

3-8

6-11

52

43

68

6-6

10-7

98

9-0

MINNESOTA

19-12

2-6

2-7

6-10

46

52

48

5-7

4-9

27

7-0

MISSOURI

22-10

1-2

2-3

7-8

48

47

88

6-6

7-8

152

8-0

PROVIDENCE

21-11

1-5

2-6

7-10

51

55

23

6-6

8-8

223

7-0

Here are comments on each of the 10 bubble teams listed
above:

St. Joseph’s (PA)
& Dayton: I give SJU the edge over Dayton right now based on their
sweep of the regular season series.The
winner of today’s A10 QF between the two is locked into the field; the loser
still has a chance.

Nebraska:
a win over Ohio State today seals their bid.

Tennessee:
a win over South Carolina gets them very close to locking in their status, but because
it’s the Gamecocks that is the kind of game that can really only hurt their
resume sadly.

SMU:
season is done, they are just hanging onto one of last few spots.With all the media hype they have received this
season they will likely earn a bid, but a lot of their metrics just do not
stack up.

Arizona State:
the Sun Devils got blown out last night against Stanford not helping their
cause a ton.As of this moment they are
in the field, but feel they are likely to fall back out with some teams just
below them still playing, and bid stealing opportunities still alive & likely.

Florida State:
a win over Virginia today and they are in the field; a loss & they likely
come up just short.

Minnesota:
the Gophers need a win today over Wisconsin to seal their spot; a loss & it’s
likely another late season fold will cost Minny their spot.

Missouri:
needs to beat Florida today to remain in the hunt.

Providence:
the last team on the bubble in the Big East playing Seton Hall tonight will not
help a ton, but it’s a must win.With a
win there, and good showing in BET Final (even with a loss) they could sneak
into the Field with some help.

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