Yet the uncertainties involved in a process, which anticipates also taking out the Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer, Senate leader and a range of other ministers, are manifest. Not even those who have long argued
Julia Gillard
’s leadership is terminal are exactly sure what will happen.

A list of appointments that would be made with a change of leader has long been rattled off around the caucus:
Anthony Albanese
for deputy prime minister and
Chris Bowen
for treasurer are at the top of the list.

Mike Kelly
has been mentioned for the defence portfolio and
Joel Fitzgibbon
for agriculture.

But the dilemma, recognised by at least some within the Rudd camp, is that less than six months from an election, any change must come with some attempt to bring a fractured party together by including Gillard supporters in a restructured government.

Make-up of any new government sought

The backers Rudd needs to lock in if he is to be assured of victory will want to know what the post-Gillard government would look like.

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His supporters now recognise that if he succeeds it is unlikely to be with a convincing, thumping majority, leaving the mood in the caucus fragile.

An unmoveable group of MPs still stands behind Gillard. Even while they concede that she is leading them to electoral disaster, these MPs argue that it would be an even larger disaster to topple another prime minister.

Rudd supporters concede that this group remains substantial, not counted in single figures.

Yet, equally, there is now a desperate sense that Labor’s parlous position cannot be let run beyond this week, and that even if the Prime Minister were to narrowly survive a challenge, her leadership has been so damaged it is ­unsalvageable.

The Prime Minister has said she will not go. Her utter resilience was on display in the House of Representatives on Tuesday with her defiant declaration that she, as a feisty woman, would lead Labor to the September 14 election.

Rudd has said he will not challenge. There has been talk of a petition asking for a ballot.

But Rudd supporters were arguing on Tuesday that if a representative group went to see Gillard and indicated she should stand down, and she refused, MPs – or even Rudd himself – would be entitled to ask for a leadership ballot to be brought on.

The Rudd camp has been much more careful this time about how it has proceeded in building momentum for a change.

It has been determined not to be quite so conspicuous about undermining Gillard, and more disciplined about making sure that her position imploded rather than was pushed.

The media legislation debacle has been a blessing for those seeking a change.

It comprehensively changed the debating point from “Rudd v Gillard" to “Gillard is untenable" as the ferocity of the media assault on Labor over Conroy’s proposed changes was used as an example of the Prime Minister’s lack of political judgment.

Windsor to withdraw support under new leader

The fact Gillard was claiming to caucus that parliamentary agreement to pass legislation cutting licence fees for free-to-air television operators – not a contentious part of the legislation – as a victory was yet another sign of the weakness of her position.

The contentious pieces of the leg­islation were expected to be pulled from parliamentary debate late on Tuesday.

An extra degree of uncertainty comes with independent MP
Tony Windsor
’s declaration on Monday night that he would be unlikely to continue supporting the minority government if there was a leadership change. But it’s got to the point where people in the Labor Party don’t really care about that. If there was a leadership change and this lead to an early election, so be it, goes this argument.

An early election could mean going to the polls without bringing down the May budget, if Windsor is true to his word.

However, Windsor would also have to weigh up whether he wants to set up the conditions for a half Senate election in 18 months’ time by withdrawing his support from the government immediately, rather than waiting to see what happens in the May budget.