HotIgneous Intruder:weather channels will still be all death and disaster all the time, in between shows with guys shooting ice bergs and people whacking rocks with hammers.

The winter storm forecasting has become so apocalyptic in our area that I can't take it seriously anymore. Multiple times over the past few years, they've predicted heavy snowfall (6-8 in.; heavy for the DC Metro area), and we haven't gotten so much as a farking flake.

born_yesterday:HotIgneous Intruder: weather channels will still be all death and disaster all the time, in between shows with guys shooting ice bergs and people whacking rocks with hammers.

The winter storm forecasting has become so apocalyptic in our area that I can't take it seriously anymore. Multiple times over the past few years, they've predicted heavy snowfall (6-8 in.; heavy for the DC Metro area), and we haven't gotten so much as a farking flake.

It's the Congressional Thermal Updraft that keeps the snow away.

I've got a friend that worked on implementing the algorithms for this. She's really smart, but weather prediction is a good example of a system with non-linear dynamics.

It wasn't all that long ago that hurricane forecasting was little more than a dartboard-esque guess. As someone living in Floriduh, I've really come to appreciate how much better they've gotten at this in the last decade or two.

Now, they're close enough that I know 4, or even 5 days, ahead of time if I need to get out the plywood and make new shutters. Makes life a hell of a lot easier. Back when I got here in the 90s you didn't know until about 48 hours out, and even THEN the area of possible landfall was so big that every Lowe's/Ho Depot/Ace Hardware would be a plywood fistfight pretty much instantly.

born_yesterday:HotIgneous Intruder: weather channels will still be all death and disaster all the time, in between shows with guys shooting ice bergs and people whacking rocks with hammers.

The winter storm forecasting has become so apocalyptic in our area that I can't take it seriously anymore. Multiple times over the past few years, they've predicted heavy snowfall (6-8 in.; heavy for the DC Metro area), and we haven't gotten so much as a farking flake.

Twice this last winter I got 4"+ of snow while DCA and downtown got zilch. And I live inside the beltway on the west side. Temperature were just that borderline.

Forecasts are actually very good, but the high profile events often have sharp gradients that make the perception seem worse than reality.

born_yesterday:HotIgneous Intruder: weather channels will still be all death and disaster all the time, in between shows with guys shooting ice bergs and people whacking rocks with hammers.

The winter storm forecasting has become so apocalyptic in our area that I can't take it seriously anymore. Multiple times over the past few years, they've predicted heavy snowfall (6-8 in.; heavy for the DC Metro area), and we haven't gotten so much as a farking flake.

Snow forecasting in my neck of the woods (near Portland, Oregon) is also hit-or miss, and a few miles can mean the difference between a trace and several inches. If you read they NWS forecast discussions you'll find that the more experienced meteorologists often question the computer models if they think the models are off (usually too likely to predict a snowfall). On the other hand, the lead stories in the local media are typically OMG SNOWPOCALYPSE!!!

During Sandy, the European Center had computers capable of producing resolution at 16 kilometers, with 130 vertical levels, according to NWS officials. In nine months, the NWS expects to be at 13 kilometers resolution.

SO YOU'RE STILL GOING TO BE BEHIND IN 9 MONTHS???? AND YOU'RE PROUD OF THIS???

Did a presentation last year discussing our failings versus the Euro models, and that we desperately needed computer upgrades... hooray for Christmas in July!

xaks:It wasn't all that long ago that hurricane forecasting was little more than a dartboard-esque guess. As someone living in Floriduh, I've really come to appreciate how much better they've gotten at this in the last decade or two.

Heck, the NHC didn't even put stock into forecasting beyond 3 days before 2001.

Mitt Romneys Tax Return:Snow forecasting in my neck of the woods (near Portland, Oregon) is also hit-or miss, and a few miles can mean the difference between a trace and several inches. If you read they NWS forecast discussions you'll find that the more experienced meteorologists often question the computer models if they think the models are off (usually too likely to predict a snowfall). On the other hand, the lead stories in the local media are typically OMG SNOWPOCALYPSE!!!

THERE"S SOMETHING ABOUT THE NWS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THAT MAKES READING THEM SORT OF A PAIN IN THE ASS ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE I CAN PUT MY FINGER ON EXACTLY WHAT IT IS

you have pee hands:Mitt Romneys Tax Return: Snow forecasting in my neck of the woods (near Portland, Oregon) is also hit-or miss, and a few miles can mean the difference between a trace and several inches. If you read they NWS forecast discussions you'll find that the more experienced meteorologists often question the computer models if they think the models are off (usually too likely to predict a snowfall). On the other hand, the lead stories in the local media are typically OMG SNOWPOCALYPSE!!!

THERE"S SOMETHING ABOUT THE NWS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS THAT MAKES READING THEM SORT OF A PAIN IN THE ASS ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE I CAN PUT MY FINGER ON EXACTLY WHAT IT IS

Lol... yes. Our local office (NWS LCH - SWLA & SETX) has some late and weekend shift forecasters that try to mix it up a bit so it's not so boring, but they're pretty accurate and not all ZOMGWTFBBQ doom and gloom about weather events.

Towermonkey:Our local office (NWS LCH - SWLA & SETX) has some late and weekend shift forecasters that try to mix it up a bit so it's not so boring, but they're pretty accurate and not all ZOMGWTFBBQ doom and gloom about weather events.

The tornado forecasting actually seems to be getting pretty damn old as of late. The day before the big OKC outbreak this year, the weather experts on here were warning that some bad shiat was headed for that general area the next day. Maybe they didn't get the exact city nailed, but the message was loud and clear to watch your ass if you lived there.

Walker:During Sandy, the European Center had computers capable of producing resolution at 16 kilometers, with 130 vertical levels, according to NWS officials. In nine months, the NWS expects to be at 13 kilometers resolution.

SO YOU'RE STILL GOING TO BE BEHIND IN 9 MONTHS???? AND YOU'RE PROUD OF THIS???

I think you're confused about something. 13 is better than 16. Or am I missing something?

I had a short, but interesting discussion with the folks at the NHC about this, asking them about the assorted differences between the systems. It seems that even with identical datasets and identical software, the two systems output slightly different results, owing to subtle differences in the hardware architechure (previous system was based on IBM POWER6 chips, new system is based on x86-64) and different compiler optimizations.

Walker:During Sandy, the European Center had computers capable of producing resolution at 16 kilometers, with 130 vertical levels, according to NWS officials. In nine months, the NWS expects to be at 13 kilometers resolution.

SO YOU'RE STILL GOING TO BE BEHIND IN 9 MONTHS???? AND YOU'RE PROUD OF THIS???

xaks:Back when I got here in the 90s you didn't know until about 48 hours out, and even THEN the area of possible landfall was so big that every Lowe's/Ho Depot/Ace Hardware would be a plywood fistfight pretty much instantly.

It wasn't all that long ago that hurricane forecasting was little more than a dartboard-esque guess. As someone living in Floriduh, I've really come to appreciate how much better they've gotten at this in the last decade or two.

Now, they're close enough that I know 4, or even 5 days, ahead of time if I need to get out the plywood and make new shutters. Makes life a hell of a lot easier. Back when I got here in the 90s you didn't know until about 48 hours out, and even THEN the area of possible landfall was so big that every Lowe's/Ho Depot/Ace Hardware would be a plywood fistfight pretty much instantly.

I have vague memories of a central Gulf of Mexico storm in the late 80s (I think) that was forecast to hit somewhere between Corpus and the TX/LA border, but at the last minute decided to hang a left, accelerate, and plow into Northern Mexico. Of course, my memories could be completely fabricated by my own psyche.

ds_4815:Did a presentation last year discussing our failings versus the Euro models, and that we desperately needed computer upgrades... hooray for Christmas in July!

xaks: It wasn't all that long ago that hurricane forecasting was little more than a dartboard-esque guess. As someone living in Floriduh, I've really come to appreciate how much better they've gotten at this in the last decade or two.

Heck, the NHC didn't even put stock into forecasting beyond 3 days before 2001.

[www.nhc.noaa.gov image 850x637]

Your profile says you're Canadian. So by "our" failings, do you mean the CMC or the GFS? Both still shiat the bed compared to the ECMWF (Euro), and they will continue to do so until their data assimilation algorithms are brought more into the 21st century.

P.S. I miss the days of the CMC being trigger-happy on cyclogenesis along the east coast. Hurricanes all summer, nor'easters all winter, and both (!) in the fall

hershy799:Your profile says you're Canadian. So by "our" failings, do you mean the CMC or the GFS? Both still shiat the bed compared to the ECMWF (Euro), and they will continue to do so until their data assimilation algorithms are brought more into the 21st century.

P.S. I miss the days of the CMC being trigger-happy on cyclogenesis along the east coast. Hurricanes all summer, nor'easters all winter, and both (!) in the fall

My bad... got my degree in Florida, so I'm referring to the GFS, though the CMC always appeared to run fairly equal for results.

ds_4815:Did a presentation last year discussing our failings versus the Euro models, and that we desperately needed computer upgrades... hooray for Christmas in July!

xaks: It wasn't all that long ago that hurricane forecasting was little more than a dartboard-esque guess. As someone living in Floriduh, I've really come to appreciate how much better they've gotten at this in the last decade or two.

Heck, the NHC didn't even put stock into forecasting beyond 3 days before 2001.