Friday, October 26, 2007

Sixty years ago, Robert A. Taft was the gold standard. Forty years ago, it was Barry Goldwater, who backed Bob Taft against Ike at the 1952 convention. Twenty years ago, it was Ronald Reagan, who backed Barry in 1964. Reagan remains the paragon – for the consistency of his convictions, the success of his presidency and the character he exhibited to the end of his life. About Reagan the cliché was true: The greatness of the office found out the greatness in the man.

Just as Taft begat Goldwater begat Reagan and now Ron Paul. Giuliani traces his political lineage to McGovern and Rockefeller, and more recently the Bushes. Which, in my opinion, is what the nomination will come down to: Giuliani vs. Paul. Unless any of the other candidates start to gain traction (Huckabee seems to be the latest media anointed flavor of the month but I don't think his fundraising will keep him in the race for much longer).

The five million dollars that Paul raised last quarter will likely be doubled in the fourth quarter. The army of volunteers that have sprouted up spontaneously and the advertising they are doing independent of the campaign is worth millions. Giuliani has brought big money to the table since he announced his candidacy, there is no reason to believe that the money will stop flowing (compassionate conservatism takes a lot of money to work after all). At this point, I wouldn't even say Dr. Paul is an underdog, he is a player in the GOP race who is saying something completely different from Rudy and the other candidates and offers a true alternative in the direction that the party is going to go.

“[GOP pollster] Frank Luntz has said on TV that the GOP base has shrunk from 34 percent to 30 percent of the voting population, driven by the war issue,” said Rick. “When your base shrinks it’s extremely damaging to the party. Ron is the onlycandidate who can bring those people back.”

Of course this is the same Frank Luntz that was on Penn and Teller's show "Bullshit!"