Tropical Depression forms in the Atlantic: More to come

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Six, a storm that’s already north of Bermuda and heading away from land.

This is a classic fish storm, and notable primarily because it’s the beginning of what’s likely to be a busy stretch in the tropics. I’d expect one or two more tropical storms or hurricanes to develop during the next week.

Tropical Depression Six this afternoon. (U.S. Navy)

There are several other tropical systems out there, and one of them (Invest 93L) has a decent chance to reach the Caribbean Sea in four or five days.

In addition there are some hints in the very long-term models of significant tropical moisture moving into Texas in about two weeks.

Obviously there should be little confidence in such long-range outlooks. Nevertheless I’ll try to provide a good overview of whether this is a scenario to be taken seriously tomorrow morning.

Thanks for the sense of humor, Eric. And thanks for your articles as well. They are good summaries and enough information without information overload. Just right for a quick update. Please keep up the good work.

I recently installed clear sheets of polycarbonate over 4 of our largest exposed windows…..they are mostly in the shade and I will take them down in November, they look great……now when a storm hits all I have to do is buy more beer….

Also waiting for Eric to comment on Hawking throwing down the gauntlet…..”god is not required for our planet and universe”….took guts….he must not be looking for “funding”…..love the science channel

Eric,
I have a simple question as I’m a simple person. If you make the statement regarding tropical moisture in Texas within two weeks, “Obviously there should be little confidence in such long-range outlooks,” how can any scientist predict with any accuracy the average global temperature in 100 years. Or yet, whether or not “climate change” is real?

You must be a True Believer to be so enlightened….once self-annointed, you will be able to pontificate freely without anything more than a computer model that will readily confirm your most dire wishes with which you may summarily dismiss all the snivling masses who demand things as mundane and banal as “data”.

I’ll take a chance that you’re not just baiting people to make a point. Moisture in Texas over the next two weeks is a localized event. If you’ve lived in hurricane areas for awhile you know that 20 miles makes a difference in moisture or damage potential. So being that precise to a location that specific is difficult even in what seems a short time frame.

Global warming takes in the whole planet and speaks to a trend. I may not be able to say that Katy won’t have a July 50 years from now where the high temp is not 105 every day. But across the globe scientists can forecast based on the data available and see what the trend (in this case warmer) will be.

Put in a different frame of reference. Most people would say and data would support that over time cities will have increased population. So I would think 100 years from now the average city will have more people. But if you look to specific examples like Detroit (industry implosion) or New Orleans (Katrina and the aftermath) you could see a specific example that doesn’t fit the expectation in the short term.

“…. Moisture in Texas over the next two weeks is a localized event. If you’ve lived in hurricane areas for awhile you know that 20 miles makes a difference in moisture or damage potential. So being that precise to a location that specific is difficult even in what seems a short time frame…”

Jeff, 20 miles!!!! I’m sure you’ve seen it happen a time or two where your home is dry while two blocks away it’s raining cats and dogs! Weather never ceases to amaze me, especially here in Texas.

A bonus is that the map also shows you the huge amount of warm water that 93L would have to cross if it followed a track from its present position all the way in to the upper Texas coast.

And remember: on this map, bright red is not the warmest water. The warmest water are the lighter shades of pink that you see covering the Gulf. Yes, the warmest big area of water in the entire ocean is sitting right in front of us.

Really, Eric? My google earth search shows a large tropical storm over the Dominican Republic that seems headed towards Cuba or the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula and which could gain strengh as roils over the gulf of mexico and possibly bring us “something” by next weekend. Incidentally, have you seen the 1/2 dozen “PETRIFIED WATERFALLS” ON GOOGLE EARTH near Mitla oaxacamexico formed by hot springs on top of mountains? And the huge Ahuehuete trees(30 feet diameter) near oaxaca,oaxacamexico? GOODBY AND GOOD LUCK.

8:00 PM model consensus now takes Invest 93L into Haiti/Hispaniola. GFS not updated since 2:00 PM. This seems to suggest a West-Northwest track instead of due west. It might not cruise the carribbean. What do you think?

The Stormpulse website is neat (http://www.stormpulse.com/). They have a listing of the storms on the left side. Gert is the seventh Tropical Storm of the season. A lot of fish storms so far (nice description of them), and not a lot of activity in our area. Dare I ask what the ‘real’ forecast is going to be for the second half of August and into Septemeber? The Bermuda high must be really weak this season?