Former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean speaks to supporters at his watch party as his wife, Anne Davis, right, applauds at Clementine Hall on Thursday, Aug. 2, 2018, in Nashville. George Walker IV / The Tennessean

Taylor Henning, left, of Robertson County, and Donna DeSopo, of Sumner County, cheer as results come in for gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee at watch party at the Factory at Franklin on Aug. 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

Mary Bore of Franklin cheers as results come in at the primary election night party for Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee and U.S. Rep. and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn celebrate at his primary election night party at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

Supporters check their phones while waiting for results to come in at the primary election night event for U.S. Rep. Diane Black at the Loews Vanderbilt Hotel in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, Aug. 2, 2018. Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean

Dan and Lisa Venable of Franklin cheer at the primary election night party for Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

U.S. Rep. and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn speaks at the primary election night party for Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

Ronnie Shelby, of Ethridge, Tenn., signs a post in support of Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee on election night at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

House Speaker Beth Harwell speaks to a supporter at her primary election campaign party at Three One Three, 701 Murfreesboro Pike Thursday Aug. 2, 2018, in Nashville, Tenn.
Larry McCormack / The Tennessean

It's quiet just before the polls close at the primary election night event for U.S. Rep. Diane Black at the Loews Vanderbilt Hotel in Nashville, Tenn., Thursday, Aug. 2, 2018. Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean

Whit Mullen, 10, of Franklin, shows a sign he made for Republican Tennessee Governor candidate Bill Lee on primary election night at the Factory in Franklin, Tenn. on August 2, 2018. Shelley Mays/ The Tennessean

The difference between the three candidates' endorsements was evident. Beavers, while popular among the far-right end of the Republican Party, carried little weight compared to the NRA and Huckabee.

And although Boyd and Black had, at that point, netted endorsements from hundreds of Tennesseans, national figures and policy organizations, such backing appears to have had little impact on the end results of the race.

While July polling indicated Lee was ahead and a win was within reach come election day, the Williamson County businessman's nomination can partially be chalked up to poor performances by his main competitors.

Some Republicans familiar with the Black campaign said it featured infighting and miscalculations that ultimately doomed her chances.

"I don’t think it could have been any worse if you had tried," said one longtime Republican who attended Black's election night watch party. "It’s a textbook of how to wrestle a relatively easy victory and put it in the jaws of defeat."

Another longtime Republican familiar with the Black campaign was equally critical.

Even before the race began, some Republicans thought it was a mistake for her to become the leader of the U.S. House Budget Committee in January 2017. Although the reward could have been great — the position could raise her profile and perhaps even lead to an endorsement from President Donald Trump — it was still a gamble.

The House budget, which ultimately took a backseat to the Senate's version, required a lot of time she could have spent in Tennessee campaigning.

Even after stepping down from the budget committee leadership post in January, Black remained in Congress. Some viewed the move as yet another mistake, again slowing down her campaign potential and forcing her to miss nearly 100 votes.

Black missed some to campaign in Tennessee, but others to make appearances on television and radio shows in New York.

Casting blame on others

"The Tennessean's crusade against Diane strikes again," he said in an email the day before the election, referring to a story about a new attack ad from a political action committee funded by two of Black's supporters.

In early July, Hartline said Black's opponents were "moderate candidates for governor and the media."

Boyd's campaign troubles

Like Black, Boyd's campaign was also reportedly marred by infighting. Outsiders heard about battles between Boyd and Chip Saltsman, the campaign's CEO, on everything from ads to trying to run further to the political right.

Boyd even alluded to some differences with Saltsman in his concession speech on Thursday.

“I used to say, ‘You know, I don’t really want to be governor,’” he said. “It’s just I have a certain few things I want to get accomplished and being governor is the best way to do it and Chip would say, 'No no, you want to be governor. Don't say that.'"

CLOSE

Randy Boyd came up just short of the Republican nomination to winner Bill Lee, according to unofficial returns.
Knoxville News Sentinel

Political observers said Saltsman was largely responsible for efforts to try to get Boyd to appear more conservative.

During his concession speech, Boyd said one of his regrets during the campaign was how nobody has truly acknowledged the accomplishments of Haslam, who he called perhaps the greatest governor in state history.

"We're in unbelievable shape in our state and we never talked about — I think because maybe we are afraid that if we gave him credit it would somehow take away our own image of being a change agent," Boyd said.

“He didn’t run as Randy Boyd. He ran as a focus group person.”

A longtime Tennessee Republican

When asked whether Boyd should have run as "Haslam 2.0", Tom Ingram, a Tennessee Republican strategist, said, “No, I don’t think anybody can run as somebody else very effectively.”

But others say Boyd's move to the right presented challenges.

"He didn’t run as Randy Boyd. He ran as a focus group person," the longtime Republican said. "That coupled with trying to embrace the hard right positions on everything convinced people he was fake."

Another aspect that doomed Boyd's campaign was his lack of support in East Tennessee. The Knoxville businessman arguably had a built-in advantage in the region, given the three other GOP candidates were from Middle Tennessee.

He won just five East Tennessee counties, including his home county of Knox. In three of those counties, Boyd finished only a few hundred votes ahead of Lee.

Although Boyd bet heavy on West Tennessee — where he ran hundreds of campaign ads and won 18 counties — he came in third in Shelby County, the second most populous area of the state.

Boyd's spokeswoman Laine Arnold said he spent 60 days campaigning in Shelby County alone.

Launching the negative ads

But perhaps there was no bigger miscalculation for Boyd and Black than their decision to launch attacks against not only one another but Lee.

Once the attacks began in early July, the race quickly tilted in favor of Lee, who stayed out of the fray, leading to his surge in the polls.

In early May, a poll from a Republican group not affiliated with the campaigns found nearly 40 percent of respondents supported Black, followed by Boyd who was in the mid-20s. Lee, who was in single digits at the time, was so far behind he was only slightly ahead of House Speaker Beth Harwell.

By June, Lee’s numbers began to slowly trend in the right direction, but he still had a sizable hill to climb.

But after an onslaught of attack ads from Boyd and Black, Lee moved ahead.

In July, the strategists’ poll found Lee in front of Boyd and Black.

Lee’s surge in a matter of weeks was a remarkable feat, especially for a first-time candidate.

Lamberth, the state lawmaker who supported Black's campaign, said the back and forth between the congressman and Boyd led many voters to turn to Lee.

"The results of (Thursday) night are purely a function of a really well-run campaign by Bill Lee," he said. "He stayed on that message the whole time."

Even with Lee's surge, it took a series of mistakes by his main competitors to help him walk away with the Republican nomination for governor.