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NFL Picks

2014 NFL Combine to Offer Sports Betting Value

The NFL
Draft Combine is just a few days away, and at LadBrokes sportsbook, you can
wager on a number of different combine props. Most of them revolve around the
40-yeard dash times for some of the higher profile players, and I have found
three NFL Odds that might have some nice value for this offseason event.

Jadeveon Clowney 40-yard dash
time

This may
be the most exciting four seconds of the draft combine, the question is how
much more than four seconds will it last. Clowney will almost certainly not
fall out of the top three in the draft this May, but before he can get paid, he
has to show up and wow some scouts at the combine.

A few
days ago, a report came out that Clowney ran a 4.47 40-yard dash time, and if
that’s true, then Clowney’s prop price at Ladbrokes is a steal. Even though
this is the chalk, a wager on Clowney to have a 4.54 or less 40-yard dash time
is a steal. Priced at -120, I still like Clowney to get 4.54 or lower. He will
have to run an almost perfect 40 yards, and a sub 4.5 40 time would make him
one of the most athletic 6’6 250 lb. players in draft history.

Manziel
might have a slower 40 time than Clowney if that puts things into perspective.
For Clowney however, the 40 time means more for his position than it does for
the quarterback. However for Manziel, it’s a big part of his game, but I think his
price is a bit overvalued at Ladbrokes.

Manziel’s
price for a 4.45 or higher 40-time is -137, and even though there’s some chalk,
I don’t think there is anyway he can run a sub 4.45 40-time. I think he would
be very happy running a time close to 4.5, but for him to get under 4.45, it
would take a lot. Manziel doesn’t need to show out (especially in the 40-yard
dash) at the combine to be drafted much higher. He and quarterbacks like Teddy
Bridgewater are likely not slipping out of the top ten regardless of their
combine results, so I don’t think Manziel will push it too much. He isn’t even
throwing at the combine. That will take place at his pro day soon after the
combine.

For me
this is a three-man race, (literally) and the NFL Odds confirm this. The
favorite to have the fastest 40-time right now is Oregon’s De’Anthony Thomas at
11/4, followed by Wyoming’s Robert Herron at +600. However right after those
two favorites is Dri Archer, a speedy back out of Kent State who could
challenge the Combine record set by Chris Johnson six years ago.

While I
think Archer will get a sub 4.3 40-yard dash time, the question is how much.
While it may not break Johnson’s record, it could easily get into the 4.2’s. I
think that will be enough to edge out Herron and Thomas, and with Archer coming
in priced at +700, the value is definitely there. He is my choice to run the
fastest time this weekend.