Wanted to bring up an NFL system I have been tracking/using for the past few years. The system has to do with teams coming off of their bye week. One year I noticed teams coming off their bye were doing really well, so I started looking into it deeper. Makes sense, a team gets an extra week to prepare, rest, and get healthy.

I found an ATS trend regarding teams coming off of their bye, playing on the road that are favored. Since 1996, they have hit at 68.9% (42-19-1). Doesn't happen too often during a year, although last year there were 9 occasions (6-3). In the early years of bye weeks, it didn't do too well. From 1996-2001 it was 8-7, then 2002-2006 it was 12-7. From 2007 on, it's been a staggering 22-5-1 (81.5%). Not sure what to attribute the more recent success to, all I know is that it's been working.

In general, here is why I think it works. Obviously, a team has an advantage coming off of bye. They get a full week to rest, get healthy, and relax some. They also get more time to prepare for the next opponent, and even get to watch them play a game from the comfort of their own home (if they so choose). They do have to travel, but after a full week off, the ills of travelling probably aren't as rough a lot of times. Lastly, and perhaps the key, is that these teams are FAVORED on the ROAD. So that tells us that in general, Vegas concedes that these teams are of better quality to begin with, or perhaps are playing a team that is very poor. Just in general if you look at NFL teams favored on the road, they are usually going to be decent teams, and giving them an extra week to prepare only adds to their success rate.

So, as I will say with any system, it is just that, a system. I don't always just blindly go all in on these games, but use it as a tool and adjust as needed. As I have said before, I am not really a system guy, and don't pay too much attention to them. This one I feel is solid because it is based on some tangible information, that can affect a team or game (i.e. rest, talent, etc). It's not just an arbitrary thing like "Team A is 14-3 on Tuesdays".

Lastly, I always use the closing lines to determine if the game is a play or not.

If both teams are coming off a bye, it is a NO PLAY, as obiviously they would have the added advantage.

If anyone wants a more detailed list of the teams/results to back up the record, please respond with your email, or PM me on the Lock Thread.

This pertains to NFL teams, coming off of their bye week, playing on the road as a favorite. I am using closing lines to determine if they are a favorite or not. Line must be -1 or greater, no pk'ems. Exclude ANY games in which BOTH teams playing had their bye the week before.

As with any "system", I would suggest only using this a tool to either help reinfornce a game you like, or get you off a game you are unsure on.

Last year I was doing some research on teams coming off their byes when I stumbled on these numbers. I delved a little deeper this year, using some archived spreads and went back all the way to 1996. (I used covers.com and goldsheet.com to get all archived numbers)

1996-2001 8W - 7L - 0P2002-2006 12W - 7L - 0P2007-2010 16W - 1L - 1P

As you can see, these teams have been hitting much more in recent years. In week 7, we had two games that were tinkering around fitting the system. San Diego opened as a 2pt favorite at NY Jets, however, this closed as a Pkem, or even Jets -1 in some places. It's possible that some books still had SD as a favorite. With the large amount of online casinos, it's hard to pinpoint an exact closing line. According to covers lines, SD went off at -1, so I suppose we can count this as a loss.

Denver opened up at Miami as a dog, but closed at -1, and did cover. So for arguments sake, we'll call it 1-1 in 2011 thus far.

Week 8 has two games that qualify (as of Friday afternoon)

New England -3 @ PittsburghCincinnati -3 @ Seattle

Those lines could move, and I will update this blog if they do move by Sunday. But a 3pt move in two days would be VERY odd, and probably something up that would be justify a no play anyway.

Just something to think about. It's just a system, so for all I know, it may lose the next 20 times. But, not a bad run that it's been on.