Sunday, August 23, 2009

Preseason NFL Football is mostly a crapshoot for betting purposes.
There are some schools of thought about line value or line movement that tell you to look for these shifts and bet the trend, but for the most part they are simply saying a line shift means someone may know something. I don't necessarily agree.
I like to take the dogs, even though I would never seriously bet the NFL preseason games. But if you must, I suggest a few thoughts to consider.
First, find a heavy public consensus favored play and go the other way. Teams getting a 70%+ of the action preseason usually are over subscribed and often don't cover.
The only line changes I consider are when the line for the dog moves, and the dog is getting points. Taking the dog here would be automatic for me. This is usually an overreaction by the oddsmakers to an event and does provide some value.
And I would weight the coach and his status and situation strongly. A new Coach, anxious to get a win, will play for one into the second half. Consider the Detroit Lions first 2009 Preseason game. If ever a coach absolutely needed a win, that game was it. In evaluating any preseason game, put your head into where you think the coachs mind is.
As we look at the 3rd game for preseason, this is as close to seeing what the regular season will bring, the most meaningful game. Use this information for your week 1 team evaluations. The last preseason week's games will be simply the final culling, and will not be indicative of the regular season.
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