Iowa

So the snake oil salesman(SOS) and Obama won in Iowa. For the former, I would say he was carried by the three C’s — Christian, Conservative, Clueless. For for the latter, I think its his youth and consequently his lack of Washingon baggage. If you noticed, those who had more baggage did worse (ignoring Giuliani who has a whole another set of baggage that left him standing on the sidelines).

Clinton is in serious trouble. Finishing a close second would have been okay, but finishing third was a unexpected blow. If she doesn’t win New Hampshire she may be done, particularly if Obama wins by a large margin. If he does, I doubt there will be anything to stop him from winning the nomination.

Edwards finished second and that’s probably the best he’s going to do for the rest of the race (other than his home state). He had to win Iowa to really have any chance going forward and he didn’t.

SOS does’t have much of a chance in New Hampshire. That shit don’t sell where people know better. Romney thinks he’s going to win it, but I think people are already tired of Mr. Fake. His negative ads are not hurting his opponents — they are hurting him (so keep running them). If he loses here, he’s probably done (irregardless of his millions).

The big question is McCain. If he wins this one it will end up being a two candidate race. SOS vs McCain. McCain will win the northern states, part of the Midwest and parts of the West, while SOS will play well in the South (much to my chagrin). It could come down to the convention and delegates.

I’m doing a lot of guessing here, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in the coming weeks.