Bubble Watch: Sizing up power conference teams Arizona State, Baylor

Feb. 27, 2013
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Jahii Carson, Arizona State (17.7 points a game, 3.2 rebounds per game, 5.1 assists a game): Carson might not carry the clout of some of his freshman peers, but he's helped get the Sun Devils off to a decent start. / Matt York, AP

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

The teams on the NCAA tournament bubble aren't always the little guys. Let's take a look at BCS-level schools in need of some serious rèsumè-boosting.

Arizona State: There is no fixing the nonconference strength of schedule. There is no erasing the losses to DePaul and Utah. All the Sun Devils can do now is collect victories --- and do it on the road, no less. Arizona State starts a swing to the Pac-12's Los Angeles schools, visiting UCLA and Southern California in two games that could go a long way in keeping Herb Sendek's team a viable at-large possibility entering the Pac-12 tournament (next week's regular-season finale could help, too). Realistically, Arizona State needs two of those three to have any realistic at-large hopes, and even then would be wise to tack on at least another victory in the Pac-12 tournament (at minimum).

Arkansas: The Razorbacks' biggest problem is plain to see: They have done nothing of consequence outside the 479 area code, and that means there's a great onus on Wednesday's trip to Louisiana State. Yes, the same Louisiana State fresh off dealing a damaging loss to Alabama's tournament hopes over the weekend. Arkansas' profile is so polarized, with victories at home over Florida, Missouri and Oklahoma, and just a 1-9 mark in road/neutral games. The Razorbacks are on the fringe of the tournament discussion anyway, and they're unlikely to earn an at-large slot without reaching the weekend of the SEC tournament. That task becomes far more difficult with a setback Wednesday.

Baylor: The more scrutiny placed on the Bears' accomplishments to date, the less appealing their resume becomes. A team with a 2-9 mark against the top 50 doesn't provide much reason to believe they'll win an NCAA tournament game. Baylor can't improve its plight in that regard Wednesday, but it still faces a critical (and long) trip to West Virginia. The Bears have lost six of eight, and can ill afford setbacks against second-division Big 12 teams in their final two road games (Baylor also visits Texas next week). There's still more work to do, but Baylor would be in a tough spot if it stumbles in Morgantown.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes will require a deep run in the Big Ten tournament to surge into the at-large picture after Saturday's loss at Nebraska, and those hopes might evaporate altogether with a loss at home to Purdue. Bottom line: Iowa is a long-shot and it can't afford many (any?) regular-season games to slip away --- especially one against an opponent hovering around .500.

Best bet: A pair of Pac-12 squads hovering around bubbly territory hit the road tonight hoping to enhance, or at least not damage, their postseason hopes. The latter is the case for Colorado as it begins its Bay Area swing at even longer-shot Stanford (11 p.m. ET, ESPN2). It is Arizona State that has a chance to do itself some good if it can complete a season sweep of UCLA (11:30 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network). The contest at Pauley Pavilion also serves as a head-to-head showdown between league rooky-of-the-year candidates Jahii Carson of ASU (17.5 ppg) and the Bruins' Shabazz Muhammad (18.2).

Number of the day: 5. Only five Division I men's teams entered this week unscathed in conference play. One of those faces in all likelihood its toughest remaining obstacle to running the conference table tonight as No.24 Akron travels to Athens for its rematch with defending Mid-America Conference champ Ohio. The Zips handled the Bobcats 86-72 in their Feb. 2 encounter, but that is Ohio's lone MAC loss to date. The Bobcats are led by senior PG D.J. Cooper, a veteran of last year's Sweet 16 squad. But the Zips have their own steady hand at the point in junior Alex Abreu.

Words of the day: "There's not too many one-ups you can get on Coach (Steve) Alford, especially in scoring. I might be on top of the world for the rest of the weekend." - New Mexico's Kendall Williams following Saturday's 46-point outing at Colorado State, in which he drained 10 three-pointers and help the Lobos snap the Rams' 28-game home winning streak. Alford, the former Indiana standout, told Williams his career bests were 42 points and eight treys in a game. Williams and the Lobos return to the friendly confines of the Pit tonight to take on San Diego State (10:15 p.m. ET, CBSSN). The entire Lobos' team scored only 34 points against the Aztecs in an ugly road loss last month.