Cinderella Watch: South Dakota State's chances with star Nate Wolters

Mar. 19, 2013
|

South Dakota State Jackrabbits guard Nate Wolters celebrates against the North Dakota State Bison in the second half during the championship game of the Summit League tournament at Sioux Falls Arena. / Brace Hemmelgarn, USA TODAY Sports

Signature win: The Jackrabbits accomplished something no else could all season and did so in immensely challenging circumstances.

On the surface, the 70-65 victory at New Mexico on Dec. 22 was significant enough. But it came after a blizzard in the Midwest forced the Jackrabbits to take a bus from Nashville, Tenn. - where they lost to Belmont on Dec. 19 - to Albuquerque. On top of that, star guard Nate Wolters was nursing a sore ankle as South Dakota State made its 1,220-mile trek.

Wolters had 28 points and seven assists in the triumph, the only time all season the Lobos would lose at the Pit.

Team strength: Offensive efficiency

Name it on offense, and the Jackrabbits probably do it well. And they've generally done it well for a while.

They don't turn it over much. They are a reasonably effective 3-point shooting team (especially in conference play, when they were 42.1 percent from the outside).

And they score. Oh, how they score. To the tune of 1.14 points per possession. Michigan is a decent defensive efficiency team, but South Dakota State is going to score points in the round of 64. If you can score, you have some hope. The Jackrabbits certainly can - and do entering Thursday's game in Auburn Hills, Mich.

This team will remind you of: 2012 Murray State

It isn't a perfect comparison, not by any stretch. But last year's Racers had a well-known quantity at guard (Isaiah Canaan) and paired him with a couple veteran forwards who scored in double figures. It added up to a 31-2 season and a spot in the round of 32 as a No. 6 seed.

The Jackrabbits weren't quite so fortunate, neither with avoiding losses or getting a great seed. South Dakota State isn't quite as sharp a rebounding team as Murray State was a year ago, but it is more effective at avoiding turnovers. Either way, the formula of a potent scorer being complemented by savvy interior players was at work for both teams.

Team weakness: Defense, especially against Michigan

The Jackrabbits give up 1.01 points per possession, a dangerously high number while going against Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Wolverines.

So let it be said: Michigan is going to get its points, too. With Burke and Hardaway involved and a de facto home game in the Detroit suburbs, the Wolverines could score quite frequently, too.

Only five times all season did Michigan fail to manage 1.06 points per possession: Twice each against Michigan State and Wisconsin, and once against Ohio State. South Dakota State won't turn in a lockdown performance, but it does need to avoid falling in a big hole early; there's no reason to think the Wolverines will simply stop scoring.

Names to know: Wolters is the most potent scorer in school history, the best player in the Summit League and probably in the short discussion for being the best player in a one-bid league (a description that would keep Creighton's Doug McDermott and Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk out of the discussion).

He also scored 53 points against IPFW on Feb. 7, the most for any Division I player this season. On the year, he averaged 22.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 5.8 assists.

But he's received helped all year from the likes of forwards Jordan Dykstra (who already has more than 1,000 points as his junior year approaches its conclusion) and Tony Fiegen (who averaged 10.1 points and 5.5 rebounds, both career highs, as a senior).

There is no doubt Wolters is the main attraction, and he'll need to have a good game --- maybe even his 51st career 20-point game - if the Jackrabbits are going to advance. But this isn't a one-man show, and Michigan could get burned by more than one guy.

Jackrabbit gem: After enduring a difficult transition like most schools moving from Division II to Division I, South Dakota State is back to winning in the way it was accustomed to under Scott Nagy. The 18th-year coach had eight 20-win seasons between 1995-96 and 2003-04, and the Jackrabbits have totaled 52 victories over the last two seasons --- their most ever in a two-year span.