12pm Sanctuaire easy to back at Taunton

Greg Wood: Sanctuaire, a winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2010, is easy to back for the five-runner novice chase at Taunton this afternoon (2.40). He was odds-on at 5-6 with a couple of bookmakers earlier in the day, but this temperamental sort, who has often given trouble at the start, has been drifting steadily ahead of his fencing debut and is out to 11-8 with Ladbrokes. His main market rival, Easter Meteor, was briefly 2-1 but is now top-priced at 6-4.

There is no such weakness about Dildar, a solid odds-on chance for Taunton's juvenile hurdle as he attempts to justify a prominent position in the Triumph Hurdle market despite not yet having jumped an obstacle in public.

Greenhead High is weak in the market for the 4.00 at Southwell, and is out to a top price of 11-2 having been as short as 100-30 this morning. The two for money against him are Soopacal (3-1 from 9-2) and Punching (9-2 from 11-2).

Stat of the day

This is a busy day in the life of Nick Gifford's stable, with El Padrino (2.20) and Fairy Rath (2.50) at Folkestone, as well as Pascha Bere (3.10) and Nomecheki (4.10) at Taunton. Nomecheki in particular is likely to have his supporters but Gifford has gone 55 days without a winner, putting him on a run of 23 consecutive losers.

Today's best bets, by Chris Cook

Racing goes ahead at Folkestone, where there is apparently no frost in the ground and the planned early-morning inspection was cancelled as unnecessary. Those bookmakers with pitches there may be somewhat less than thrilled by the news, since three of today's races feature odds-on favourites.

Taunton stage a really interesting and competitive card and, if you need a regular fix of decent jump racing through the winter, you'd better pay attention because the cold weather is closing in. Inspections are already planned for Leicester and Ludlow tomorrow and it will be a surprise if one is not necessary at the other turf meeting, Newcastle.

Renard was one of my favourite horses at the end of last year, when he took advantage of a low handicap mark to win three on the bounce. He had finally settled down a bit, perhaps because of the application of ear plugs.

He has continued to run well in three subsequent defeats but he looks a false favourite for Taunton's two-mile handicap chase and not least because his advantage at the weights has been wiped out; he's 9lb higher than for his most recent win, 26lb higher than for the first of his November wins.

Also, the drop back to two miles makes him vulnerable in my book and Venetia Williams, his trainer, seems to agree from her comments in this morning's Racing Post. Yes, his wins were all at or around two miles but he seemed to me at the time to be getting away with it slightly, that the distance was a bare minimum for him and that he would benefit from going further. He may be done for pace on this sharp track, especially as there has been no overnight rain and the going is mostly good to soft.

I'm opposing him with Star Galaxy (4.10), a 7-1 shot whose form seems rather streaky. He went 4½ years without success but then won five out of seven from November 2009 and April 2010 and a subsequent dry spell has been followed by another good run.

He had his first run for David Evans on New Year's Eve after an eight-month layoff, ran a respectable third and has won both his starts since. Admittedly, both came on soggier ground but he has coped well with good to soft in the past and travelled so well that I have every hope he'll be fine today. He's just 6lb higher than for his last success and the price seems wrong, even allowing for the presence in the field of some useful rivals.

The market may know something I don't about Grey Gold (3.10), reappearing for the first time in two months since a battling win at Bangor. That was his handicap debut and it may be a mistake to assume that the extra 9lb will make him uncompetitive, just because he only scrambled home by a head. The third horse was beaten 16 lengths while the runner-up has since been placed again from a 7lb higher mark.

Tom Scudamore replaces Johnny Farrelly in the saddle and, without wishing to be cruel, that looks like an upgrade.

The novice hurdle at 2.10pm is required viewing because of the presence of Dildar, a 12-1 shot for the Triumph Hurdle despite never having jumped a hurdle in public. The suggestion emanating from Paul Nicholls' yard has been that he is their best hope for the Triumph, which, in light of Pearl Swan's effort at Cheltenham on Saturday, is saying something.

Of course, as the trainer himself has said, you can never be sure until they do it on the track, so 4-6 about Dildar today is clearly madness. Yes, he was useful on the Flat, running second in a Listed and setting the pace in a Group Two Derby trial at Saint-Cloud that was won by Pour Moi. But among his opposition is a still more classy hurdles debutant in Alwaary, fourth in the 2009 King George, won by Conduit. Alwaary is Tony McCoy's only booked mount on the card, for what it's worth.

I couldn't back him but Dildar will probably win. The same cannot be said of Sanctuaire, who makes his fencing debut in the following race, also for the Nicholls / Ruby Walsh combination.

The winner of a novice handicap hurdle at the 2010 Festival, Sanctuaire has become a bit of a loony since then and is in danger of wasting his talent. He can pull very hard or appear entirely reluctant, as when giving up 20 lengths at the start of the Christmas Hurdle last time.

Who dares take 11-8 about a horse with such a profile? Instead, give me 6-4 about Easter Meteor (2.40), who, unlike the favourite, is doing the job for which he was made. He hacked up at Exeter on his fencing debut.

The handicap hurdle at Folkestone which has been included in our competition does not feature many promising sorts but there should be more to come from The Winged Assassin (4.20), who showed moderate promise in three preliminary hurdles runs last summer. He has warmed up for this with some respectable efforts on the all-weather .

M'colleague Greg Wood, who is something of a Fibresand specialist, has weighed in with the following verdict in regard to the other competition race.

Greg Wood: The 4.00 at Southwell, the only Class 5 handicap on the card, is arguably the most competitive race anywhere this afternoon and, while Soopacal is the pick in the morning paper, it was in the hope that he might offer a bit of value in the market behind Greenhead High.

The market, as so often, turned out to be one step ahead, and while Soopacal has plenty going for him at a track where he has winning form, he is far from the only proven Fibresand performer in the field. Indeed, there are only five runners in the 12-strong field without a course win to their name and Greenhead High and Punching are both very dangerous opponents.

In the end, though, Soopacal (4.00) is worth an interest, not only on the basis of his second place here three runs ago – form that was franked soon afterwards – but also because the value of his latest second in a claimer, which was run in a good time, may not be fully factored in to his price.

Tipping competition, day two

Valley Tiger (14-1) will probably not be the last winner this year for the Richard Fahey / Paul Hanagan combo and the five of you who stuck with them are off to a flyer in this week's competition. MauriceNL and orso had the other two winners, Songsmith (6-1) and Storm Survivor (2-1).

This week's prize is a pack of the new Top Trumps-style cards featuring chasers and hurdlers, as described at the top of the page. If you don't win, you can buy a pack here.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.

In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.