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I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Monday, November 9, 2015

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS WHAT HAPPENED WEEK 10

WHAT HAPPENED

This is my weekly “What
Happened” post but the truth is I don’t know what happened. Well, I know what
happened the same as any other schmuck … what I read and what I saw on the
highlights. But I didn’t watch the games Saturday ‘cuz my nephew plays QB for
the local high school team. I’m so happy for the kid- he made All-Conference in
leading his team to an undefeated season and a conference championship. The
games have been on Friday night all season but the second game of the state playoffs
was last Saturday. His games are one of the few things that take precedence
over College Football Saturday so I took the road trip with his parents (my
sister and brother in law) and his grandpa (my dad) to watch him. Shortly after
halftime they carted him off on a stretcher and put him in an ambulance. Still
some more tests to do but it appears as though he’s gonna be alright, but he’s
done for the season. It’s always hard to witness something like that but when
it’s one of your own it’s a frickin’ nightmare. I love that kid.

Anyway, all I saw of the
games last Saturday was snippets of the Indiana-Iowa game while in the waiting
room, so this week’s comments will be based mostly on media reports and
replays. I went 1-3 last Saturday. My confidence is shaken now as this is
shaping up to be my worst season ever.

I predicted Michigan to win, 38-7.
This game was my only win for the week. Michigan scored even more than I predicted.
Rutgers just might be the worst in the league right now, but they did beat
Indiana so…. It appears as though QB Jake Rudock had a good game. If he can
step it up a notch and connect on a deep pass or two, Michigan will have a good
shot at winning a trip to the conference championship game.

Nebraska 39Michigan St. 38(Michigan St. -5.5)

I predicted Michigan St. to
win, 31-17. I also caught bits and pieces of this game. I saw Nebraska QB Tommy
Armstrong throw one of the “poor decision” interceptions I call for every week.
It was in the red zone so I figured I was in good shape with this one. And I was
in good shape with less than three minutes to go in the game as Michigan St.
had my cover and a win in hand. But Armstrong brought the ‘Huskers roaring back
to pull off the upset. I did check out a clip showing a good portion of
Michigan St. HC Mark Dantonio’s post-game press conference. I’ve been kinda
lukewarm on Dantonio personality-wise, but I gained a lot of respect for him
after watching the clip. He didn’t complain about the controversial finish,
gave a lot of credit to his opponent, and pointed out that his team still
controls its destiny to win the conference. A good way to identify a winner is
to see how he behaves in defeat.

Illinois 48Purdue 14(Illinois -3)

I predicted Purdue to win,
28-24. These two teams are killin’ me. I
zig, they zag. I bob, they weave. Illinois was coming off a 39-0 thumping. Didn’t
score a point and now 48. Purdue was coming off an upset victory over Nebraska
in which the Boilermakers scored 55 points. 55 points and now only 14.

Wisconsin 31Maryland 24(Wisconsin -10)

I predicted Wisconsin to win,
31-14. I mentioned in my prediction write-up that Wisconsin may be a little
flat so my margin might be a bit wide. I just didn’t figure Maryland to score
much. I still had a good shot at covering but got “back-doored” when Maryland
scored a touchdown in the last two minutes of the game.

THE NON-PLAYS

Iowa 35Indiana
27(Iowa -6.5)

I predicted Iowa to win, 45-33.
The scoring came in a little lower but otherwise it appears as though things
went much like I predicted.

Northwestern 23Penn St. 21(Northwestern -1.5)

I predicted this game to go
into overtime at 17. I figured this one would be close and it was. I am a bit surprised
Northwestern was able to score 23 points with a backup QB against a good Penn
St. defense. I didn’t predict a winner but I’m glad Northwestern won. I like
Pat Fitzgerald. James Franklin, not so much.

Ohio St. 28Minnesota 14(Ohio St. -22.5)

I predicted Ohio St. to win,
35-17. I wasn’t too far off on this one. The recap says Ohio St. QB Cardale
Jones didn’t play so good, but his numbers look fine to me. Minnesota QB Mitch
Leidner only threw one interception. I called for “some”.

Notre Dame 42Pitt 30(Notre Dame -8)

I predicted Notre Dame to
win, 24-19. I thought Pitt’s defense was supposed to be good, what with HC Pat
Narduzzi being a defensive guru and all. I saw some highlights. It looks like
Notre Dame’s offense is still getting better. Kizer to Fuller for a touchdown
on the third play of the game. How does a guru let that happen? I would think
stopping that combo would be the first priority. Recaps say this game wasn’t as
close as the score indicates. So much for Notre Dame always having a hard time
with Pitt.

ATS

FTC
DOLLARS

In this section I track the
results of my predictions that qualify as “plays” ATS (any predicted point
spread that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve also
included the results (conference games only) of some unsuspecting
prognosticators that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC”
dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section and the
definition of a “play”, please refer to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of
this post or click here→ FTC $ Q&A.

I can take some comfort in
knowing I wasn’t the only one who did poorly last Saturday. In fact I was the
only one to pick a winner. All four of us are now in the hole financially.

Links to last Saturday’s
predictions from all contestants can be found in the “Details” section below.

The full list of last
Saturday’s predictions from each contestant can be found by clicking the link
listed under “website”.

SEASON STATS

Listed below are this
season’s stats for various categories that I’ll be tracking. I gained some
ground last Saturday in most of the categories but no changes at the top of the
overall lists.

Again, links to last
Saturday’s predictions from all contestants can be found in the “Details”
section.

SPREAD RECORD

W

L

STRAIGHT UP

W

L

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

17

16

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

27

7

FROM THE COUCH

13

21

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

27

7

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

13

21

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

27

7

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

9

24

FROM THE COUCH

23

9

WITHIN 7

W

L

CLOSEST

W

L

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

12

22

TOM DEINHART
(btn)

14

19

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

11

23

SEAN MERRIMAN
(btn)

12

22

FROM THE COUCH

10

24

FROM THE COUCH

11

23

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

10

24

BRENT YARINA
(btn)

9

24

SPREAD
RECORD-
This category disregards my seven point “play” system and simply displays the
ATS record.

STRAIGHT UP-
Theoutright winner, disregarding
the spread.

WITHIN 7-This
category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points
of the actual final score differential. Why does this matter? Because one can
never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35
percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.

CLOSEST – This
category tracks the number of times a predicted point spread was more accurate
than the Vegas point spread. This category differs from the Spread Record
category because it’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not
be as accurate as the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread
is Michigan by 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record
category. I get a loss in the closest category because the oddsmakers’ point spread
(7-6=1) was closer to the final
score differential than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into
overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7”
category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.

NOTRE DAME

I predict Notre Dame games
along with the Big Ten conference games. My Notre Dame predictions aren’t
included in the above standings and statistics because my competition doesn’t
predict Notre Dame games. So I’ve separately listed the stats for my Notre Dame
game predictions below.