"I don’t think we can anticipate anything other than a small-scale limited strike.” - W. Andrew Terrill, the U.S. Army War College.

With U.S. warships on Friday maneuvering in place for what seemed an impending U.S. military strike against Syria, an international policy strategist for the military said the United States has few other options.

“President Obama says it’s going to be warning shot and limited. I don’t think we can anticipate anything other than a small-scale limited strike,” said W. Andrew Terrill, a research professor for national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle. “Essentially, that’s what he said. He also said he hasn’t made up his mind one way or another.”

On Friday, Secretary of State John Kerry gave indication that the U.S. was fast edging toward a strike on the Syrian government in retaliation for a purported chemical weapons attack on civilians last week.

"Some cite the risk of doing things,” Kerry said Friday. “But we need to ask what is the risk of doing nothing."

Estimates of fatalities in the attack on the Damascus neighborhood - initially placed in the hundreds - now stand at least 1,429 people, including more than 400 children.

The U.S. has already made it clear something has to be done to warn Syrian president Bashar Assad, but contrary to widespread reports, it is unlikely it will wait for approval from the United Nations Security Council to strike, Terrill said. Such a vote - which must pass unanimously - would likely be vetoed by Russia, a permanent member of the council and a supporter of the Assad regime.

W. Andrew Terrill, research professor for national security affairs at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College.U.S. Army War College

“It will never be put into effect but then if you want, we can say, 'We tried everything,’ ” Terrill said. “We only went to this concept of doing it with a coalition after the Security Council was unable to help. We tried to make more of an international effort but couldn’t because of Russian obstructions.”

A U.S. strike, Terrill said, is likely to consist of cruise missiles fired by the U.S. Navy at limited Syrian government targets.

“Right now in his last interview, President Obama said he is interested in firing a warning shot,”Terrill said. “He is not talking about any large scale intervention. He is talking a warning shot.”

However limited, that warning shot is imperative, Terrill said.

“The strategic logic is that when somebody starts using chemical weapons, you have to stop them early, if not, they are going to use it in a larger scale,” Terrill said. “If there was nothing done, no world reaction, there is widespread fear that he would use these weapons much more extensively. He has to test the water first. If there is no reaction, he can use them a lot more extensively to kill a lot more people and make a difference in the war.”

By retaliating early, the Obama Administration may stave off the possible need to use larger-scale military response down the road.

“He is conscious of escalation and wants to keep it down,” Terrill said.

Syria, which has been suspended from the Arab League, is not a signatory to any of the international conventions or treaties that have banned the use of chemical weapons.

“If there was some way we could get the Syrians to give up their chemical weapons, that would alleviate the need for strike, we might do, but I don’t think Syrians are going to give up their weapons,” Terrill said. “I’m not quite sure what we could do. I don’t see very many other effective options.”

The complex situation in Syria dates back decades, but most recently can be traced to the March 2011 uprising against Assad’s brutal and repressive government - an uprising largely inspired by the Arab Spring movement.

The U.S. position with Syria, which has comprised of “non-lethal” aid, is complicated by the fact that several of the rebel groups are comprised of Al Qaida affiliates.

“We’ve got this situation where we’ve got a very diverse groups - some bad guys, some look a lot better - fighting a very authoritarian dictatorship,” Terrill said.

Assad’s regime is predominantly made up of the Alawite minority, while many of the rebel groups are Sunni Muslims. That dynamic has resulted in an impasse with neither side willing to seek a resolution outside the framework of violent conflict.

“This has often made the war a little more bitter because both sides tend to see it as zero sum game,” Terrill said. “If they lose the war, they are going to be subject to harsh retaliation in the aftermath of the loss. There’s fear that if you lose the war, you can lose your life.”

As the casualty count in the civil war exceeds 100,000, the U.S. has just begun to place weapons aid in the pipeline.

“This is a very bloody war,” Terrill said.

Ultimately, the goal of a U.S. strike will have nothing to do with a fundamental shift in policy.

“It’s not a first step in expansion of our presence,” Terrill said. “It’s one move to limit the types of weapons Assad is using in the civil war.”

The civil war will continue, he said, and so will the U.S. non-lethal aid, but a scenario where U.S. troops go into Syria - not likely. Such a scenario would entail complex entanglements with Iraq. Moreover, Terrill said, opposition groups do not appear to have what it takes to remain in power should they win, not to mention that some of the strongest components of the rebel alliance consist of Al Qaida affiliates.

“I think there is an understanding of the limitations of American power and that has kept us out of Syria,” Terrill said.

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