Rob Hale of MarketGraphics finds plenty to like in Huntsville housing market

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- As president of MarketGraphics SouthEast, Rob Hale gives a lot of presentations and distributes a lot of data about the state of the housing market, a job that's often gloomy during the economic uncertainties.

In recent years, his company's conclusions about real estate, based on field inventories of subdivisions, have been known to "suck the oxygen out of a room," as he said Thursday morning.

His current findings about the Huntsville and North Alabama housing markets, though, were something altogether different.

"Of the 20 states we (MarketGraphics) are in, this is the most vibrant," Hale said after the presentation at Valley Hill Country Club.

MarketGraphics Research Group, based in Franklin, Tenn., provides new home market research, forecasts and consulting for builders, developers and banks, among others.

The main way the company provides real estate data is lot-by-lot audits in 581 subdivisions in a four-county market in North Alabama. Every four months, said Hale, MarketGraphics does "field inventories" in Madison, Limestone, Marshall and Morgan counties.

Hale's appearance was part of an annual program by BancorpSouth.

"Last year, it was scheduled the day after the tornado (of April 27)," said Penny Billings, division president of BancorpSouth. "We put it (off)."

The weather, though, was no factor Thursday.

"It's indicative of the real estate market," Billings said. "The sun is shining."

Home builders and Realtors were among those in the audience. Jim Wright of Stoneridge and Alabama Heritage homes was one of the homebuilders.

"We had 35 sales last month - the best we've ever had," he said.

So far this month, he's had 12 sales.

"I think people are beginning to see it's time to get off the fence," he said.

Many of his sales - 14 last month - are in the Cambridge of Heritage Plantation subdivision near the new James Clemens High School in Madison. He calls the area a "sweet spot for us."

About 30 percent of his customers are people who are moving into the area. About another 30 percent are people here because of BRAC who are moving out of temporary housing, he said.

The chief price range of homes, he said, is $250,000-$275,000.

"People are beginning to shop and buy," he said. "Will it be long-term? I don't know. I'm cautiously optimistic."

Hale, though, is encouraged about the local and regional markets in MarketGraphics SouthEast.

"I can tell you there is more optimism than I've seen in at least the last four years," he said.

He cautioned about too much optimism, however. There are "still problems we could encounter," he said.

But he said there are many promising trends.

Perhaps foremost among them is the recent gains in employment.

MarketGraphics uses an index of jobs to building permits to measure employment gains.

"At one point (in early 2009), in the Huntsville market, we were losing seven jobs for every permit that was issued," Hale said. "In June of last year, the trend changed. (We) got to the point where five jobs were gained for every permit issued."

Now, he said, there are 3.6 jobs gained for every building permit that is issued. The goal, he said, is 1.25.

Madison, he said, is a "very healthy" real estate spot because of the schools.

In Meridianville and Hazel Green, the rate of closings has "stabilized," he said.

South Huntsville has had an increase in closing rates, he said, and southeast Madison County has had "great improvement in inventory level."

"You're fortunate to live in an area that has experienced the job growth you have here," Hale said. "In Huntsville, I see Target and Walmart stores built, extensions to the highway system. You don't see that public and private construction that you see here now.