Africa

The plan of Congo-Kinshasa’s president, Joseph Kabila, to extend his
rule was met by mass protests in January. Police and military using live
ammunition were deployed and 42 protesters were killed. But the mostly
youthful protest movement forced parliament to retreat.

Under the current constitution, Kabila cannot stand in the elections to
be held in 2016, as a president can only hold office for two periods.
The regime therefore proposed a census, estimated to take several years,
postponing the presidential elections, as a first step towards Kabila
staying on for a third period.

Established opposition parties and students therefore planned
demonstrations when the bill was being debated in the thoroughly corrupt
parliament, controlled by Kabila. Mass demonstrations started in
Kinshasa on January 19, when one chamber of Parliament adopted the
proposal. Police and military, backed by helicopters, were deployed
against the street protests, which were dominated by students and young
people. Some of the fiercest clashes took place at the University of
Kinshasa.

In an attempt to stop the protests, the Senate - the upper house of
Parliament - amended the bill on the census, not linking it to the
elections. Opposition parties then called off the demonstrations, but
the youth continued. They feared, rightly, that the retreat was a
manoeuvre and demanded that Kabila should resign.

The demonstrations continued for four days. They quickly spread to Goma
and Bukavu in Kivu in eastern Congo. Again there the police intervened
very brutally, and many fled across the border to Rwanda.

It was the harsh repression that put an end to the movement. On the
second day, the government closed down the Internet and blocked text
messages. Mass arrests were carried out, and three weeks later over 300
people were still detained.

According to Human Rights organisations, a total of 42 people were
killed by police and elite soldiers. But there are also other sources
saying that over one hundred demonstrators were killed.

What will happen with Kabila?

That the Senate suddenly backed off was an unexpected success.

"This is the first time that you’ve seen popular pressure in the streets
of Kinshasa having a dramatic impact on policy," Jason Stearns, a Congo
expert at the Rift Valley Institute told Reuters.

It remains to be seen how Kabila and his supporters will proceed.
Politicians are well aware of what happened to Blaise Compaoré of
Burkina Faso last October when he tried to extend his mandate and was
toppled by mass protests. At the same time, Congolese activists in
Sweden emphasise that Kabila has stronger backing than Compaoré from
multinationals and governments internationally.

Joseph Kabila took over when his father, Laurent, was assassinated in
2001. Since then he has "won" elections in 2006 and 2011, through
various forms of electoral fraud. The imperialist powers who are
plundering the country of raw materials - the US, China and European
countries - have seen Kabila as a solid partner and accepted the bogus
election results. Imperialism, multinational mining companies such as
Glencore, Freeport McMoRan and AngloGold and governments in the region,
who participated in the wars in Congo, are constantly engaged in a
battle for Congo’s riches.

Plan A for the regime is that Kabila shall remain. Meanwhile, several
established politicians have tried to launch themselves as alternatives.
Not least is Katanga’s wealthy governor, Moïse Katumbi, who is presented
in the international media as a stable successor. Katumbi has profiled
himself as the multinational mining companies’ candidate, at the same
time as he tried to win local support by criticising the government’s
violence against demonstrators. But the majority of the population lack
a real alternative that can stop wars and the plundering of the country.
The opposition parties are corrupt undemocratic apparatus.

"I don’t see this as being [an indication of] massive support for the
opposition...I think it’s more [one of] massive opposition to Kabila
staying in power", commented a former director of OSISA, an NGO working
for democratic elections in Southern Africa.

"Dangerously volatile"

The International Crisis Group - a Brussels-based analysis group of
former politicians - describes Congo-Kinshasa (official name Democratic
Republic of Congo) as "dangerously volatile." According to the UN index,
the country is the world’s second least developed, only Niger is worse.
The average income is $390 per year - one dollar and six cents per day.
Since it is an average, many people have much less.

Mass poverty explains how militias can recruit soldiers, a large part of
them children. These militias are then linked to, and funded through,
exploitation, trafficking and smuggling of commodities. Congo is the
world’s largest producer of cobalt and produces more copper than any
other country in Africa. It also has large reserves of gold, uranium and
hundreds of other minerals. 95 percent of export earnings come from raw
materials.

The multinationals have driven a shameless campaign against the
government’s proposals for modest increases in companies’ taxes to the
state. After threats of reduced investments, the government has backed
down. The state’s share in new projects is now proposed to be 10
percent, down from 30 in the original proposal. The fee for the gold
mines stops at six per cent. The country’s government remains in the
hands of those who exploit minerals, with China playing an increasingly
important role.

Militias and regional power struggle

The latest plans for disarming the many militias, primarily in eastern
Congo, have almost completely stalled. The plans were drawn up after the
rebel army, M23, was defeated militarily in November 2013. It was seen
as an important victory, since only one year earlier, M23 had threatened
to march from the east and take Kinshasa. However, the agreement signed
in February 2014 (PSCF, Peace and Security Agreement) has completely
failed.

M23 has not been demobilised as planned. As in previous cases, the
ex-combatants ended up in camps with no future and sometimes starvation
conditions, ending up with many being enlisted in other armed groups.

The Congolese army, FARDC, and the UN force, MONUSC, are both seen by
much of the population as corrupt and incapable. Generals in the state
army, supposed to stop the violence, are themselves responsible for
massacres and rape.

After the M23, the next target was the Hutu militia, FDLR, originating
from Rwanda. MONUSC was equipped with an extra "intervention brigade"
for these battles. But the brigade has barely been used in the one and a
half years that have passed. A planned offensive was recently postponed.

The FARDC prioritised fighting another militia, the ADF. Alongside this,
the conflict between MONUSC and Kinshasa has developed further, with the
government openly calling for the UN to reduce its military strength in
the country - today at 22,000 soldiers.

That nothing happened against the FDLR has reinforced the regional
tensions. Rwanda has twice invaded Congo to try to crush the FDLR and is
very critical of both the FARC and MONUSC. Rwanda is backed by the
governments of Uganda and Kenya. Other regional powers such as South
Africa, Angola and Zimbawe support Kabila’s government.

Basically, these conflicts are battles over the spoils and transport
routes for Congo’s natural resources. South Africa has also signed a
major contract for hydropower from the Congo river.

The demonstrations in January could be the start of an escalating
opposition from below, without ties to established parties and with the
youth at its head. A new movement is a prerequisite for breaking with
imperialist exploitation and the constant wars that have killed up to
eight million people in the last 20 years. In such a mass movement, the
demand for nationalisation of all natural resources and the building of
a revolutionary socialist party are decisive ingredients.