The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

From the Ethics of the Fathers: "He [Rabbi Tarfon] used to say, it is not incumbent upon you to complete the task, but you are not exempt from undertaking it."

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Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Does ISIS Pose a WMD Threat? - Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham

by Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 322EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The risk of ISIS employing chemical, biological, and radiological warfare agents is real. In fact, ISIS already has attacked with chemical agents. ISIS has mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are assisting in the development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and mustard gas, alongside foreign experts. It also has reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from Iraq to Syria.

Since its emergence, ISIS has sought chemical weapons and has used
them against its opponents, namely the Syrian opposition groups, Kurds,
Iraqi and Syrian government forces.

In September 2014, around 40 Iraqi soldiers and Shia militiamen
showed symptoms of chlorine poisoning and many were hospitalized,
consequent to the use in battle of bombs with chlorine-filled cylinders.

Around the same time, ISIS insurgents surrounded hundreds of Iraqi
soldiers in the Saqlawiyah district of northern Fallujah, and used
chlorine gas to suffocate them before detonating a car bomb. This
resulted in the death of 300 Iraqi soldiers.

In January 2015, weaponized chlorine gas was likely employed by ISIS
in a suicide bombing in northern Iraq against Kurdish Peshmerga
fighters. Iraqi officials showed the BBC videos in March 2015 that they
say confirm Islamic State use of chlorine gas in crude home-made bombs.

Three months later, ISIS shelled several security checkpoints and
residential areas in Ramadi with chlorine gas-imbued bombs. This past
August, ISIS launched 45 120mm-mortar shells tipped with mustard
warheads against the Kurds in Makhmour, Iraq, and the effects included
burns, blisters, severe damage to the eyes, respiratory system, and
internal organs.

Since July of last year, ISIS has repeatedly attacked Kurds with
chemical weapons in the strategic Syrian city of Kobane. At first, the
ISIS used chlorine in Kobane and later, by this August, mortar shells
filled with mustard gas. During an attack in Hasakah in August 2015, the
same mustard weapons were used. The same weapon was used shortly
thereafter by the group while fighting in the town of Mare near Alleppo.

In contrast to chlorine, which ISIS succeeded in weaponizing, mustard
agent in a powdery form is regularly used too, which is a sophisticated
albeit old weapon that probably originated in the Iraqi army. This may
be the outcome of the June 2014 capture by ISIS of the huge Muthanna
State Establishment, the main Iraqi chemical weapons facility dating
back to the regime of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. Although
the facility was heavily bombarded in 2003, it still contains two
bunkers containing chemical weapons.

Iraqi Ambassador Mohamed Ali Alhakim, in a letter to U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in July 2014, said: "The Government of
Iraq requests the States Members of the United Nations to understand the
current inability of Iraq, owing to the deterioration of the security
situation, to fulfill its obligations to destroy chemical weapons."

Around the same time, ISIS captured approximately 40kg of uranium
compounds at Mosul University. The uranium – a weak radioactive material
– was not enriched. Remarkably, ISIS had already set up – possibly in
Mosul University – a branch dedicated to research and experiments of
chemical weapons.

ISIS had also mobilized Iraqi and Syrian scientists who are currently
assisting the development of chemical weapons, particularly nerve and
mustard gas. Foreign experts came from Chechnya and Southeast Asia as
well.

Recently, ISIS reportedly moved its labs, experts, and materials from
Iraq to "secured locations" inside Syria. It is highly likely that ISIS
seeks chemical, biological, and radiological materials for both
military and civilian targets, such as subways, food, and water
supplies.

ISIS is an even more brutal and radical group than al-Qaida, which
has also pursued WMD. Given the technological limitations that ISIS
faces, their procuring of a nuclear device is highly unlikely. However,
the probability that the group will acquire further chemical agents, and
seek to obtain biological and radiological agents for the first time –
not necessarily weaponized – is high. ISIS could seek these weapons in
order to compensate for its military inferiority as well as for
retaliating against what ISIS regards as foreign interventions.

An attack could occur anywhere across the globe. ISIS does not
display any degree of morality whatsoever and does not fear the
consequences of its deeds.

Carrying out an attack with chemical, biological, or radiological
weapons is not easy, given the pressure now put on ISIS. In practical
terms, various factors have to be taken into account. Technologically,
ISIS has a limited capability of producing such weapons, but could hire
outside experts or force experts to cooperate. It could also utilize
various existing production facilities, laboratories, hospitals, and
universities to create a crude weapon. ISIS is apparently incapable of
safely handling highly dangerous toxicants, pathogens, and
radioisotopes, but this should not constitute a bottleneck within a
radical organization like ISIS.

Some factories in ISIS controlled areas may contain highly poisonous
pesticides, particularly organophosphorus compounds. Universities and
certain civilian medical and pharmaceutical facilities may contain
hazardous biological materials such as anthrax or cholera germs that
were meant to be used for scientific research or vaccine production.
Clinics for cancer treatment or blood irradiation typically use cesium
137 or cobalt 60, which can be utilized as radiological agents and are
long-lived – about 30 and 5 years respectively. While these can be
employed for regional radiological terrorism, smuggling radioactive
materials across border checkpoints would probably be detected.

In terms of potential aerial delivery systems, ISIS could capture and
use agricultural spraying airplanes or unmanned aerial vehicles. ISIS
could also infect individuals with pathogens found in civilian
facilities, and let them roam freely among the public and across borders
as rudimentary dispersal devices. Whether or not more residual
state-owned chemical weapons in an operational condition are available
for ISIS in Iraq and Syria, it appears that the group endeavors to
expand its own capabilities.

In short, the current chaotic circumstances in the region are
conducive to its efforts. Only an incapacitating blow against the group
will remove this threat.

The disruptive processes generated by the Arab uprisings could still
bring about some unpredictable danger or crisis. While ISIS is one
outcome of these upheavals, its extreme and aggressive nature indicates
that it would not hesitate to use any means to achieve its goals.

The risk of chemical, biological, and radiological warfare and
terrorism are tangible threats that must be dealt with now. The warning
recently delivered by French Prime Minister Manuel Valls concerning the
possible employment of chemical or biological agents by ISIS in Europe
is noteworthy. Across the Middle East, the chemical menace of ISIS is
already evident, and may well increase.BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler FamilyLt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, a microbiologist, is a senior
research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Recognized as a top expert on chemical and biological warfare in the
Middle East, he is a former senior intelligence analyst in the Israel
Defense Forces and the Israeli Defense Ministry.Source: http://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/9562/ Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.