Americas

The massive turmoil which has shaken Mexico since Presidential elections
were held on July 2nd has continued. By the narrowest of margins the
right-wing candidate of PAN (Partido Accion Nacional) Felipe Calderón
has claimed victory. Yet his “victory” was the product of massive
electoral fraud which has provoked a massive wave of protest led by the
radical populist candidate of the PRD (Partido Revolucionario
Democratico) Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, popularly known as AMLO. Over
one million have participated in one protest against this stolen
election. Thousands have joined in the massive encampments, stretching
for more than seven miles, which have blocked Mexico City’s main
thorough fares around the giant Zocalo square.

The National Congress is now ringed by two-meter tall grilled metal
barriers behind which 3,000 vizored robocops have been deployed. Many
participating in these events according to some reports are drawing
parallells with the mood which existed in Mexico during September and
October 1968. Then a massive student movement, inspired by events in
France, was brutally repressed by the Gustavo Diaz Ordaz government.
Over 300 students were gunned down by the military in the Plaza of Three
Cultures. Despite beatings by the police and repression any such attempt
to repeat the massacre of 1968 would provoke a massive explosion in
Mexico and it is more likely the government will hold back from such
brutal repression.

The instability in Mexico has already alarmed US imperialism. US
Homeland Security is strenthening its forces around the town of Laredo
in expectation of problems south of the border. There are also reports
that US Navy Patrols were being dispatched to safeguard Mexican oil
platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

After weeks of protests a new more radical turn is developing in PRD
leadership reflecting the bitter anger of the masses who supported AMLO.
“If there is no solution there will be revolution” is one of the most
common chants taken up by PRD supporters in the mass protests. Others
have no taken up the chant from the Spanish civil war, “No pasaran” –
“They shall not pass”. In the context of Mexico they mean the
reight-wing PAN will not be allowed to take the presidency.

At the same time there is confusion about the way forward, At the
encampment some religious shrines and altars have been erected where
people are praying for devine intervention. “God doesn’t belong to the
PAN” is among the slogans raised by some at the protest.

The scale of the fraud continues to be exposed at each turn. According
to ALMO’s campaign the sample recount revealed that in 3,500 polling
stations 119,000 votes cannot be verified. 58,000 more votes were caste
than on the electoral register. In 4,000 other polling stations 61,000
ballots allocated to election officials cannot be accounted for. These
figures have emerged only from a partial recount rather than a full
recount of all the votes being demanded by ALMO and his supporters.

There is a conspiracy of silence of this massive fraude. Compare the
defening silence about these events with the way the so-called ‘Orange
revolution’ was featured in the Ukrainian elections.

More far sighted representatives of capitalism, such as the Financial
Times in Britain have urged a recount for fear that any new government
of the right which is sworn inb will have no credibility. These more far
sighted conclusions of representatives of the EU compared with the
bellicose support of the PAN by Bush and the White House, reflect the
fears of sections of international ruling class. Should Calderón assume
the presidency on December 1st as timetabled his government will have no
legitimacy. It is certain to come into collision with a new wave of
struggles which began to unfold by miners, teachers, hospital workers
and others in the run up to the election.

At the same time the Mexican ruling class also fear with equal reason,
that should AMLO be accepted as president it will be the green light for
workers, peasants and youth to move into action and demand massive
reforms and concessions from the ruling class. Despite his radical
populist attacks on the rich, corruption and US imperialism he has also
pledged that he is willing to work with business and will only take
measures against the corrupt. Yet a government led by him with a radical
populist policy would also have international repercussion and come into
conflict with US imperialism. One of his central demands in the election
campaign was a renegotiation of the trade agreement FTAA with the USA.

Above all however both the Mexican ruling class and US imperialism fear
that a PRD led government would open the floodgates to demands and
struggles by the masses. A measure of the developing mass movement is in
the state of Oaxaca where a massive strike movement of firstly teachers
and now health workers has been taking place for over a month demanding
the resignation of the state governor. There a state wide popular
uprising is underway.

The mass pressure has compelled the electoral commission, TEPJP, to
agree to a partial recount but not a full recount of all the votes as
demanded by the opposition. In hundreds of ballot boxes more votes were
counted than the numbers registered to vote. The TEPJP has to give its
final verdict by September 6th.

In the light of the mass pressure AMLO has been compelled to move in a
more radical direction. He has now spoken of building a more “permanent
opposition” and threatened mass protests at every event attended by
Calderón. “Now begins a new period in Mexico …with the sovereign power
of the people we will undertake the changes and transformations that
this country needs”. A further mass rally has been called for September
16 – the traditional day of official marches by the military to
celebrate Mexico’s independence. The opposition has called for one
million delegates to attend a Democratic Convention on this day. One
option the leadership are discussing is the formation of a “government
in resistance” that will launch a mass campaign of civil disobedience.

Major clashes with the police has taken place in Mexico City as the
government attempted to repress some of the encampments set up by the
PRD and its supporters. A major confrontation could easily still develop
if Calderón is sworn in as president.

At the same time the more radical turn of AMLO is provoking some
division in the radical capitalist nationalist PRD. Some more middle
class elements are fearful things could get out of control and want a
more moderate stance which in reality means accepting the stolen
election result stands. According to some reports these developments
have also begun to open a debate about forming a new left-wing party to
replace the PRD which includes sections of the corrupt PRI bureaucrats
which come over to the PRD.

However, the more radical declarations by AMLO are not enough to beat
this fraud. He has spoken of a campaign lasting years to fight the
result. The mobilisations already undertaken although welcome need to go
much further with a clear strategy. Democratically elected committees
need to be formed in all workplaces, universities, workers districts.
These need to be linked up on a district, city-wide, state and national
level. The massive protests of over one million which have already taken
place during this battle indicate the support potential strength of the
movement. A date should set not only for a national demonstration but
the calling of a general strike to defeat this massive fraud.

This needs also to be linked to the steps for the workers and poor
peasants from this movement begin to build a real party for the workers
and peasants and all those exploited by capitalism and who wish to fight
to overthrow capitalism and establish a workers and peasants government
with a revolutionary socialist programme.

However, this election battle is resolved in the short term a new
chapter has opened in the struggle of the Mexican masses. A new phase of
struggle in Mexico, on the border with US imperialism is certain to
major repercussion in the USA and also in the rest of Latin America. It
is unfolding as Bush faces a crash in his support at home and with the
massive mobilisation of the Hispanic population demanding their rights.

These developments in Mexico represent a further upsurge of the struggle
against neo-liberalism that is taking place throughout Latin America and
which poses the need for a revolutionary socialist programme, party and
organisation to overthrow capitalism and establish a Democratic
Socialist Federation of Latin America.