With the big opening night game just four short days away, I want to take a look at a matchup the Cowboys can potentially exploit (and avoid) against the Giants. As usual, this game will be won up front.

New York sports one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, led by All-World defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. The G-Men shockingly recorded only 33 sacks last year, but that was a fluky occurrence given their pressure. The team generated 157 pressures, according to Pro Football Focus. I’ve shown that a team’s sacks tend to add up to around one-fourth of their pressures over the long run, meaning the Giants’ most likely sack total was actually 39.

The Giants are weak in the back end, however. Stevie Brown—the free safety who gave Dallas trouble in 2012—is out for the year with a knee injury, replaced by 28-year old Ryan Mundy. The veteran hasn’t gotten much playing time, getting targeted only 48 times during his entire four-year career. He’s allowed just 6.2 YPA on those throws, however.

With those nuggets in mind, let’s take a look at the top players the Cowboys should pick on and avoid on Sunday night.

Target Corey Webster

Webster was a quality corner a few years ago, but he’s been really poor in the past two seasons. Last year, Webster allowed 10.3 YPA—one of the worst marks in the NFL. That included a Week 1 thrashing from Dallas during which Webster was targeted six times, allowing five catches for 127 yards and a touchdown.

Opposing quarterbacks have been picking on Webster since 2011, when he was targeted an incredible 130 times. In comparison, Brandon Carr was targeted 87 times in 2012 and Morris Claiborne just 69.

The Giants will likely place Prince Amukamara over top of Dez Bryant. The Cowboys should basically force the ball to Bryant no matter what, but he’ll be involved in one heck of a mismatch of Webster is on him.

It will be interesting to see if the Giants continue a trend they’ve shown against Dallas over the past couple seasons—playing Cover 2 Man Under. In my opinion, that defense—with two deep safeties and man coverage underneath—is the best way to stop Dallas. It’s really the only way to effectively double-team Bryant and it could force the Cowboys to remain patient with the running and quick passing games.

Avoid Jason Pierre-Paul

It looks like Pierre-Paul will be a go for this contest, and that’s bad news for Dallas. JPP had a “down year” in 2012, registering only 6.5 sacks. Like many Giants players, though, Pierre-Paul’s low sack total was at least in part due to randomness. He actually had 43 pressures on the year, meaning his most likely sack total was 11. Pierre-Paul ranked in the top seven in pressures among 4-3 defensive ends, and Pro Football Focus ranked him as their top run defender. The Cowboys would be wise to run away from Pierre-Paul and double-team him whenever possible.

Unfortunately, the ‘Boys really won’t know where JPP will be. While some teams align their defensive ends on the same side on nearly every snap, the Giants switch them around more than anyone. Pierre-Paul lined up on the left side of the defense on 53.0 percent of his 2012 pass snaps, so he’s just as likely to be on top of Doug Free as Tyron Smith. Advantage New York.

Instead of doubling Pierre-Paul, though, I’d likely spread out the Giants. If the Cowboys use “11” and other receiver-heavy personnel, it will force New York to put more of their weak secondary members on the field. The best person to neutralize Pierre-Paul is Tony Romo; by getting the ball out quickly, JPP can’t cause too much damage.

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