Oil Prices Rise Despite Healthy OPEC Outlook

Source U.S. Energy Information Administration Short Term Energy Outlook May 2018

Russell Knight
|
14 May, 2018, 18:35

Investment in the United States unconventional oil industry rose 42% year on year in 2017 to $138bn compared to a 2% rise in overall non-OPEC capital expenditure over the same period as easy access to capital and cheap debt drove to an explosion in output, buoyed by firming oil prices, OPEC said.

The report stated that recent US trade-related actions [imposing tariffs and trade war with China] could lead to rising global inflation, declining business sentiment, as well as other effects that could dampen ongoing global growth.

Oil prices have been a bit of a roller-coaster ride so far this year, going up and down between its lowest point of $59 (£43) per barrel in February on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) index to peaking earlier this month at nearly $72 (£53).

The move boosted Brent.

The deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers led by Russian Federation to cut supplies and erase a global glut has helped oil prices reach $78 a barrel, their highest level since 2014.

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By contrast, net long positions were increased slightly in USA gasoline (+1 million barrels), US heating oil (+7 million barrels) and European gasoil (+2 million barrels).

On Monday, however, markets were held in check by news of a rise in US drilling for new oil production.

The goal of the supply cut was to reduce the excess in oil stocks to that of the five-year average.

OPEC production rose by 12,000 bbl/day to an average of 31.93m bbl/day in April compared to March when compliance with the cartel's supply cut agreement reached 149%, driven in part by the Venezuela economic crisis.

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