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Mississippi State's game against LSU will likely determine outlook of this season

STARKVILLE — "SEC Nation," the SEC Network Saturday pregame show, shouldn’t have any trouble filling its segments from The Junction at Davis Wade Stadium with all of these enticing storylines ahead of Mississippi State’s game against LSU …

MSU defensive coordinator Todd Grantham’s defense has looked dominant against two inferior opponents. Will that continue against Matt Canada’s motion-heavy offense, which features top running back Derrius Guice?

Mississippi State hasn't beat LSU in Starkville since 1999. Will that streak end?

Those are just a few without even mentioning the names Dan Mullen, Ed Orgeron or Nick Fitzgerald.

But regardless of how many other subplots there are or how often they will be further discussed, it's impossible to lose sight of the big picture.

Mississippi State needs to win this game.

Or, put in another — perhaps more accurate — way, the Bulldogs can’t afford to lose this game. It's what everyone knows but no one will say on the record.

For Mississippi State (2-0), a win against No. 11 LSU (2-0) on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN) would likely accomplish three significant things. It would propel the Bulldogs inside the Top 25 polls, put it in the conversation as the second-best team in the SEC West and, most importantly, set up at least a 7-5 season with the opportunity for much more success than that.

If the Bulldogs drop this game, then it’s challenging to count up beyond seven wins in a schedule ESPN deemed the 14th-toughest in the country back in August.

“This is what we’re here for,” Fitzgerald said. “This is why we came to school here.”

This is only Week 3 and it’s true that if the Bulldogs lose to LSU, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’ll also lose at No. 15 Georgia and at No. 13 Auburn in Week 4 and Week 5, respectively. But the odds surely won’t be in Mississippi State’s favor. As of now, ESPN’s Football Power Index says MSU has a 36 percent shot at beating Georgia and a 28 percent chance of upsetting Auburn.

The three-game stretch is the fifth-toughest in FBS, according to ESPN’s FPI. Mississippi State’s best chance at a win is against LSU (44 percent).

LSU has rightfully been labeled as a New Year’s Six Bowl contender — a 2-0 team with Guice and the return of Key should be.

But the Tigers also aren’t without flaws. They start a true freshman at right guard, have experienced place-kicking problems and have been hit with the most penalties in the SEC (21). They will be without defensive end Rashard Lawrence, who is recovering from an ankle injury he suffered in the opener against BYU. And at quarterback, they have Danny Etling, who is effective in play-action and throwing to the sideline but is more serviceable than game-changing.

The general consensus is that this will be a relatively low-scoring and close game. That’s probably a credit to the way Mississippi State’s defense has looked under Grantham.

That’s why of all the subplots, the most enticing will be the game within the game, the cat-and-mouse, back-and-forth chess match between Grantham’s desire to match up relative to what the offense is doing versus Canada’s constant motioning, which even involves moving tackles around.

“The offense is different now and there's a lot more movement and motions than there were prior to the change at offensive coordinator,” Grantham said. “But it is still going to get down to being able to set the edge on the blocks and set the wall on the inside and tackle.”

Grantham doesn’t sound worried there. He didn’t look worried, either, when he made those comments on Tuesday.

That example of confidence is a microcosm of what we’ve seen here since the start of training camp. So far, it has translated to the games with Mississippi State’s defense playing with a swagger again. There have been loose but focused vibes around the Seal Complex since July, with Mullen, himself, appearing calmer and jollier, even, than usual.