Iran moves nuclear stockpile to above-ground facility

posted at 11:25 am on February 27, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

This is either moderately bad news, or really bad news. I’ll let you decide:

When Iran was caught last September building a secret, underground nuclear enrichment plant at a military base near the city of Qum, the country’s leaders insisted they had no other choice. With its nuclear facilities under constant threat of attack, they said, only a fool would leave them out in the open.

So imagine the surprise of international inspectors almost two weeks ago when they watched as Iran moved nearly its entire stockpile of low-enriched nuclear fuel to an above-ground plant. It was as if, one official noted, a bull’s-eye had been painted on it.

Why take such a huge risk?

That mystery is the subject of fervent debate among many who are trying to decode Iran’s intentions. The theories run from the bizarre to the mundane: Under one, Iran is actually taunting the Israelis to strike first. Under another, it is simply escalating the confrontation with the West to win further concessions in negotiations. The simplest explanation, and the one that the Obama administration subscribes to, is that Iran has run short of suitable storage containers for radioactive fuel, so it had to move everything.

Could Iran be inviting an attack on the facility? The mullahcracy is at its least secure in the 30 years since deposing the shah. It exists now only through the auspices of its military and paramilitary forces, and is one adverse event from a coup. They desperately need a legitimate outside threat — the Great Satan speeches about the US will no longer suffice — and perhaps they want to entice Israel into a quick airstrike.

That may be tempting for Israel, but even if that were the case, the mullahs and their IRGC sponsors would hardly leave all their uranium eggs in that above-ground basket. They want a nuclear weapon, and if this is just bait, then they have sufficient quantities elsewhere for their larger purpose. That is also the case if the move comes from a lack of underground storage. Either means that the Iranians are producing enriched uranium at rates faster than the West has presumed — which probably also means that they’re enriching it to higher concentrations than presumed as well.

Did they paint a big bullseye on it and does it have a sign with hand pointing a finger at the nuke stockpile with the text (in Looney Toons) cartoon-style handwriting, “Israel, Nuke Stockpile not here”.

The Iranians are often irrational. However Ahamadinejad is consolidating his power against the mullahs and Iran is turning into a police state. So if the Iranian Revolutionary Guards want to get the populace on their side against the mullahs the best way is to get Israel to attack them. So I beieve this is a invitation for attack for domestic reasons. It still may be a good idea to hit the stockpile but Israel has to factor the US into the equation more than Iranians leaving a target out.

Ignore the stockpile of low enriched fuel and work on an horrible industrial accident at the enrichment facilities. It’s hard for me to believe that there aren’t people sympathetic to the resistance that don’t work in those facilities. Think Poland, Mr. Obama.

This adds to my impression that if there is an attack it should concentrate on disabling the IRG and the militias and not waste time on the Maginot Line (to coin a phrase). I think the nukes are, strategically speaking, a red herring.

Our troops should get out of Iraq NOW! They are too close to those nutjobs in Iran and they’re careless handling of nuclear material.
A capitalistic thought would be to lease space at Yucca Mt. Maybe we could recoup some of our dough the Feds blew there.

Win – Win for Iran.
They either get a bomb or goad Israel to strike first which will have a minimal effect but will spark mass protests worldwide, unleashing Hamas and the Hizbos and getting world justification for going nuclear and rally their own people against the pro-democracy movement in Iran.
In short, we have a devil’s dilemma.

Many of the Iranian leaders are belivers in something called the 12th Imam. Christianity says that Jesus will return and it will be great. Believers in the 12th Imam beleive that the world will be in a fire when the 12th returns.

How much airtime has that “mossad” hit with 26?! agents received in Iran? What was the purpose in showing the tapes worldwide? If Iran puts the nukes out in the open and films them being detonated and blames it on Israel- who in the Arab world is going to stand up and say Iran did it to themselves?

Many of the Iranian leaders are believers in something called the 12th Imam. Christianity says that Jesus will return and it will be great. Believers in the 12th Imam believe that the world will be in a fire when the 12th returns.

Further that they can HASTEN the 12th by lighting the fire.

barnone on February 27, 2010 at 11:57 AM

The 12th imam already came.

In the middle of the 19th century.

Named Ali Muhammed Shirazi, he wrote books, got a good following going, annoyed the religious leaders, they tried to hang him, the rope broke, so they shot him.

So imagine the surprise of international inspectors almost two weeks ago when they watched as Iran moved nearly its entire stockpile of low-enriched nuclear fuel to an above-ground plant. It was as if, one official noted, a bull’s-eye had been painted on it.
=======================================================
What a golden opportunity!!

Did the Germans or Japanese do anything tricky, or unclear to us during WWII? Did we wait to find out what they were up to, or did we just continue to fight them? Let’s do nothing until Iran tests its nuclear weapon or attacks someone. Then we can be sure what they’re up to /

Duh. For weeks I have been amazed that the media is buying that they are at 20%……..hello y’all…..for being so sophisticated the drive-bys either want them to have nukes or are the dumbest clucks on the south forty…..

Word on the street is that the Iranian’s enriched material is contaminated and not useful for a bomb. That would explain why they would go through with the exchange deal only if the Europeans handed over good fuel rods immediately and only on Iranian soil. By the time the Euro’s discovered the contamination, the Iranians would have the good rods secured. Additionally, there is speculation that the reason the North Korean’s bomb tests yielded so low (about 1/2 kiloton) is that it was really an Iranian bomb built with the contaminated (unknown by the Iranians at the time) uranium.

It is probably barrels of powdered milk for babies. Besides, sit back amd let the Muslim America-Democratic Green party triumph in Iran with demands for smaller government and honest politicians who are freedom loving slaves of Allah.

The Iranians are schemers but they are not known to be masters of subtlety. It probably won’t take a Cray computer to figure out what they’re up to. I’d ask Israeli intelligence for their assessment…if I had their phone number.

Reminds me of the “baby formula” plant that got nailed in Iraq during
Desert Storm. Remember the video of the workers walking around the ruins
with uniforms on that actually said “Baby Formula Factory” IN ENGLISH, no less.

And Obama does nothing. Does he think a nuclear holocaust in the middle east is enough of a crisis to get people in the USA to accept the strong man argument and embrace tyranny? I mean, a vital part of the Obama strategy relies on crisis. And the biggest event right now Obama can latch his political agenda on to? The Olympics. If there aren’t any crises – make one.

They’re exposing their contaminated/unusable crap to either a) fool the West into believing they are “coming clean”,… or
b) draw fire in order to unify an unhappy populace against a common external enemy,… or
c) a + b

Israeli strike planners are to clever by half to be taken in by this… they know to watch the hand that you can’t see.

It simply makes the calculus of taking out as much supply and production capability that much simpler – they will still strike and strike deep all the underground facilities they can identify.

And with their recently unveiled fleet of airliner-sized drones (they could only be that big for lifting lots of big bunker-busting bombs) they will be risking far less in a strike – certainly far fewer pilots.

Does Obama want them to get the bomb?
Worse than that he is ambivalent. He must be prodded to action when action is desperately needed. He feels, as does Valerie Jarret, that the US is an Imperialist nation and should keep its nose out of world affairs. We have interfered and meddled enough. Change…
Supported the would be dictator in the Honduras. Snubs the UK at every opportunity. (It was during Churchill’s second premiership that Britain suppressed Kenya’s Mau Mau rebellion. Obamas Grandfather was held and may well have been tortured during captivity during that time. Thus Churchill’s bust was banished and the UK is snubbed.)
He believes that those that those that live under Communist rule do so because they choose to. That people should be “free” to choose whatever form of government they seek and that those that live under Communist rule do so willingly.
Not long ago. The people thought that they were free to choose the manner of their governance. They called for Democracy in a public place. China’s Communist leaders crushed their bodies with tanks. There is your freedom to choose Obama. And you know this well. Manufacturing czar Ron Bloom… “We kind of agree with Mao that political power comes largely from the barrel of a gun.”
Bloom is a Harvard grad and former SEIU official with close ties to ACORN. Whoda thunk it?

Ignore the stockpile of low enriched fuel and work on an horrible industrial accident at the enrichment facilities. It’s hard for me to believe that there aren’t people sympathetic to the resistance that don’t work in those facilities. Think Poland, Mr. Obama.

Cindy Munford on February 27, 2010 at 11:43 AM

Sounds like the 2nd to the last Vince Flynn book! (Or was it the one before that?)

Because the regime in charge in Iran needs an attack from the West or Israel in order to re-establish legitimacy with the Iranian public after splitting the country by compromising any democratic credentials the country had.

Iranians take their democracy seriously. It is one of the reasons why they resent the West (past regime changes against the popular will). Iranian society is split and the fault lines run through the regime as well as the population.

The radicals need an outside threat to regain popular support and, if Iran is attacked by foreigners, they will unite behind their leaders. Iran has enough of its nuclear assets in hardened locations to endure air attacks.

It is worth pointing out here that Saddam’s nuclear program was left largely intact after the Gulf War despite loads of sorties. It was inspection teams on the ground that located and terminated the vast majority of Saddam’s nuclear and biological assets and this is further evidenced in the findings of the survey groups after the more recent conflict.

The regime is in real trouble at home and regime change is best performed by the main beneficiaries, the Iranian people. The US and other countries can help this along.

I’m not an expert, but if it’s above ground would it be harder to strike and contain the radiation? If it’s under ground, would the strike spread less radiation. Maybe it’s a deterrent to a strike, and also to make it look like they have more than they do.

Publicly move it into the facility, quietly move it out.
The facility gets hit .. the Iranians continue on with their bomb with the West suckered into believing the immediate threat is over .. so talks of sanctions are dropped.

Now that “Dear Leader” has declared the $15Billion of research and the decades of preparation of Yucca Mountain for holding our nuclear waste a dead issue for America, perhaps he can offer it out to Iran as a type of “Public Storage” facility for their enriched uranium.

Hey! It could be a two-fer! Think of how much money he could get for monthly rental while Iran perfects its bomb and missile designs…

It would probably be enough to:
– finance a few more Congressional bribes to pass Obama’s health care plan and cap & trade
– AND have $ leftover for his 2012 campaign.