Is the BJP coming back?

Suddenly, there’s a buzz within the BJP. The flagging campaign has been re-energised, and there’s a spring in the step of workers. The party believes that it has put up a strong show in the first three phases of polling, and is now banking on Rajasthan, one of its traditional strongholds, to deliver Delhi to it.

True, the BJP lost the assembly elections in Rajasthan only last year, but it still has a committed vote base there and just needs to woo away a relatively small percentage of Congress and undecided voters. And so, all the big guns – from L K Advani and Narendra Modi down – are being wheeled into the desert state in a bid to propel the BJP to the position of the single largest party all-India, come May 16.

Meanwhile, the Congress, which began the campaign on a strong footing, has managed to alienate most of its key allies, including Lalu Prasad, Ramvilas Paswan and Mulayam Singh Yadav. The one staunch ally it has left is the DMK, but patriarch Karunanidhi’s illness has left his party’s campaign in a critical state. Meanwhile, archrival Jayalalithaa is busy criss-crossing Tamil Nadu and drawing huge crowds. If these translate into votes, Jaya could end up with a hefty chunk of seats in the politically crucial state.

Jaya is, supposedly, a leading light of the Third Front. But the lady has done business with the BJP before. In any case, she has herself said that a good politician never rules out anything. If she, the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) can collectively cross the 200-seat mark, then a lot of parties that are now shying away from the BJP may suddenly start becoming more receptive to its advances.

Why has this turnaround happened? Frankly, I have no clue about what is influencing rural voters. But when I speak to middle-class voters, it seems to me that the BJP campaign has struck a chord on at least three issues – which most political pundits seem to have missed.

To begin with, the BJP’s focus on unemployment and job losses seems to be resonating with middle India, which is in the midst of its first major encounter with lay-offs and downsizing. The Congress can argue – with some justification – that it cannot be blamed for a global recession and that India is, in fact, faring better than the rest of the world. Unfortunately for it, people who are scared and insecure are rarely in a mood to listen to logic. The BJP’s promise to exempt tax on income up to Rs 3 lakh has also gone down well with the educated middle-class – which, in any case, is convinced that it gets very little in return for the hard-earned money that it pays as tax.

Finally, the BJP’s promise to introduce one rank, one pay and give tax sops to the defence forces is likely to earn it goodwill and votes from both serving and retired personnel, who otherwise tend to be largely indifferent to the electoral process.

Sceptics may sneer and say that the middle-class doesn’t vote, so this is not going to make any difference to the results. I wouldn’t be so sure. I do concede that May 16 is still a long way off and a lot could change by then. So, this prognosis may well be completely off the mark. But as of now, an NDA government – which seemed a very remote possibility when campaigning began – doesn’t seem quite so far-fetched. Whether that’s good or bad is a matter of opinion.

Author

Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but confesses to a special weaknesss for cricket, economics and the economics of cricket -- a range of interests he hopes to replicate in his blog, Rue-Barb Pie.

Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but con. . .

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Author

Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but confesses to a special weaknesss for cricket, economics and the economics of cricket -- a range of interests he hopes to replicate in his blog, Rue-Barb Pie.

Vikas Singh is Resident Editor of The Times of India, Delhi. A self-confessed dilettante, he reads passionately on almost every topic under the sun, but con. . .