Weather Blog: Thunderstorm and severe weather chances

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! A quick warm-up into the 80s will be short-lived as thunderstorms and cooler temperatures loom. In today's blog we discuss the timing of thunderstorms and how far temperatures fall.

After a rare warm day with ample sunshine, the next round of unsettled weather will take aim at southern Wisconsin beginning Wednesday.

Quiet weather should hold through Tuesday night. By the time the morning commute arrives on Wednesday, expect thickening clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms to follow. The best bet for storms will arrive after 7 or 8am. Futurecast below valid at 10am Wednesday shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Wisconsin.

This complex of thunderstorms sweeps through quickly providing a chance of downpours, lightning, and potentially strong winds. The exact path the storms track will be key, as a slight shift to the north or south may mean some locations in our area see little to no rain.

As the potential thunderstorms push east, we should see a break in precipitation with temperatures in the low 70s.

An afternoon round of showers and thunderstorms will likely develop with a warm front residing just to our south. The focus for round 2 looks to be near and south of the Wisconsin and Illinois border. Futurecast below is valid at 5pm showing most of the rain staying south. Just a slight shift north and Milwaukee may see more rain by late afternoon!

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined southeast Wisconsin as an area that may potentially see strong storms on Wednesday. The main threat would be strong winds, most likely with the first complex of storms in our area. The SPC probabilistic graphic below shows roughly a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point on Wednesday. This is still a fairly low chance of seeing severe weather.

Rain totals will vary greatly on Wednesday, but some locations that see thunderstorms will have rain totals of 0.50"-1.00" by the end of Wednesday.

Look for updates on the severe weather threat on WISN 12 News at 5, 6, & 10pm and live tracking of the storms on WISN 12 News this Morning Wednesday from 4:30-7am.

For more weather updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather