The Rediff Special/ Amberish K Diwanji

'The entire top brass in Islamabad are hardliners when it comes to Kashmir'

"To say that the Pakistan government was not aware of the Pakistan army's plan to send in armed intruders into Kargil is completely wrong," declares Dr Savita Pande of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.

Dr Pande, who had done her doctoral thesis on Pakistan's
nuclear policy a few years ago and now specialises in South
Asia and Pakistan, debunked the claims of
George Fernandes and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. The defence
minister and prime minister had excused the Nawaz Sharief
government and the Inter-Services Intelligence from any role
in the Kargil war.

She pointed out that as far as Kashmir was concerned, the
entire Pakistan establishment was united in its thinking.
"The entire top brass in Islamabad are all hardliners when
it comes to Kashmir," she added.

The present Pakistan chief of army staff, General Pervez
Musharif was handpicked by Sharief after his
row with the previous chief, General Jehangir Karamat.
Musharif superseded two other generals in his rise to the
top job.

Similarly, the present ISI chief, General Ziauddin, is also
considered a Sharief appointee. Pande pointed out that Ziauddin's
brother is a member of the Pakistan national assembly and
belongs to the Pakistan Muslim League, Sharief's party.

"When you consider all these facts, it becomes clear that
the defence minister's statements holds no water," said
Pande, who firmly believes that Sharief was very much
aware of what was happening in Kargil even as he and
Vajpayee signed the Lahore Declaration and spoke of
friendship.

In fact, Pande categorically blames the Bus Diplomacy and
the Lahore Declaration for the current fiasco. "We in India overreacted when the Indian
prime minister took the bus to Lahore and later signed the
declaration. And in doing so, we missed out crucial points
in the declaration which go against India," said Pande.

These vital aspects, according to the IDSA senior fellow,
are:

· the Kashmir issue has been separated from other issues;

and,

· no mention was made about ending the low-intensity
conflict that has raged on since 1989.

"The prime minister read out a poem Jang Na Hone Denge (We
will not let war happen) all along forgetting that a proxy
was has been going for a decade now," said a worked up
Pande.

The IDSA senior fellow blamed a "bunch of people" who
believe that Track 2 Diplomacy and symbolic gestures of
friendship would resolve the Indo-Pakistan issues.

"How can we let Kashmir bleed while the rest of India
becomes friends with Pakistan?" asked Pande, "after all
Kashmir is a part of India and until Pakistan changes its
policy on Kashmir, India cannot get too close." She added
that even on the day the prime minister took his bus ride to
Lahore, some people were killed in Kashmir.

Analysing the reason for the Kargil conflict, Pande said it
was to block the Srinagar-Leh highway. "Every summer, food
and other supplies are stocked up in Leh since the highway
is difficult to use in winter. The Pakistan plan was to
prevent this stocking up of supplies from taking place,
which would make the entire Ladakh region vulnerable to
Pakistan," she said.

Capture of Ladakh would allow Pakistan to gain easy access to the
Siachen Glacier and get close to the Karakoram highway which
goes through the Xinjiang province in China. "Pakistan could
even link up through the Karakoram to China," said Pande.

Another reason, according to her, was to start a war in
another sector so that the number of troops deployed in the
Poonch-Rajouri sector is reduced. "Since the number of
troops are limited, the idea is to force India to move
troops from Poonch to Kargil so that infiltration from
Poonch-Rajouri becomes easier," the IDSA fellow added.

She pointed out that the Poonch-Rajouri sector was the most
favoured infiltration route, whereas Kargil, involving high
mountains and temperatures that make it the second-coldest
place on earth, is not an easy place for infiltrators.

Pande sees no intrinsic worth in the visit of Pakistan
Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz to India. "Any further talks
can only be based on the intruders going back and Pakistan
agreeing to end this low-intensity conflict against India,"
she said, adding that unfortunately, India had a habit of
sweeping key issues under the carpet.

She also flayed suggestions of giving the intruders a "safe
passage" back. "There is no question of giving them a safe
passage. We must throw them out! They are not even soldiers
who deserve to be treated prisoners of war," she stated.

However, despite the conflict having gone for quite some
time, Pande doubted it would become a full-fledged war.
"Pakistan's military doctrine is based on the fact that
India has conventional superiority. In fact, it is because
they know they cannot defeat India in a conventional war
that they keep indulging in low-intensity conflicts,"
she declared. However, she was sure that the day Islamabad
was convinced it could actually win a war against India,
Pakistan would attack.

Moreover, she pointed out that unlike the Siachen Glacier
which was an undemarcated territory and therefore open to
conflict, in Kargil the border is clearly defined and thus
there is no scope for ambiguity. "The entire world accepts
the Line of Control," she said.

Lastly, Pakistan has not yet owned up to the intruders,
still calling them as Kashmiri freedom fighters. "This means
they have no legal commitment to back the intruders," added
Pande.

She warned that after Kargil, Pakistan may try and create
trouble in the Nalagalli sector, popularly known as the NG
sector, which lies close to Kargil.

With India unlikely to change its policy on Kashmir, Pande
sees only one way out for India. "We have to increase our
defence expenditure. We cannot be complacent about Kashmir
nor expect the present low level of defence expenditure to
suffice for Kashmir. No doubt the Kashmir dispute can only
be resolved through talks, but India must bargain from a
position of strength, not weakness. Let our conventional
superiority be so great that Pakistan would dare not even
question us," she said.