A Voice of Conservatism Living in Carolina Blue

Domestic Oil Production: The Liberal Myth

During the 2008 campaign, we heard a lot of Sarah Palin extolling America to “Drill Baby Drill”. And, from the Left, we heard the mockery of such a policy. Chief among them the complaint that any oil production is more than 10-15 years away. We’ll simply never see the oil is what they would say.

To be sure, that’s about 18 hours worth of oil use in the US. Still it’s good. The problem is that North Dakota is an anomaly. It’s not that oil production takes too much time, it’s that there is not enough domestic oil — and old oil fields are going off line at a rapid pace (meaning they have to be replaced before there is movement upward). Even if all of Alaska and every off shore site were open for drilling, there isn’t that much there given our rate of consumption (and the fact oil is a global commodity, meaning we don’t just produce it for ourselves). I have more hope for domestic natural gas production. In parts of the Northeast there have been promising developments.

All oil fields follow a similar pattern, early on their is rapid growth in production (in that North Dakota is normal), then it reaches a peak and then falls off rapidly. I’m curious how extensive and long lasting the North Dakota fields are (many off shore finds are relatively short lived).

I did some quick research — there is hope that North Dakota’s reserves could be massive. That is horrible news. As someone who grew up in South Dakota, I resent North Dakota’s success and urge that South Dakota start a massive project of slant drilling to ciphon off the oil from North Dakota. Seriously, though, the most optimistic claim is that it has 24 billion barrels (that’s not been proven) which would be enough to supply the US for three years (of course it will be taken out on a longer scale). This should keep prices down for a decade or so, long enough to soften moves away from oil should global reserves be declining. That is, despite the fact *cough* NORTH Dakota has it, very good news.