Direct from the South American offices of ElectroniCast in Lima (Peru), this is the market forecast of the consumption of light emitting diode-based bulbs (also known as LED lamps) in stationary (non-vehicle/non-portable) General Lighting applications in the Latin America region. The lamps are used in new construction, as well as retrofitting/replacement of existing (installed-based) lamps.

This market forecast is segmented by selected countries and geographical sub-region (Rest of Latin America) and presented for the major lamp-type categories. The lamp categories, in turn, may have multiple sub-categories, which are determined by lamp the physical size of the lamp and/or primary use.

This study report also provides an overview of Standards related to LED lighting; policies and schemes for promoting the penetration of LED lighting; industry trends in LED lighting; sales/distribution channels; and company profiles of LED lighting industry manufacturers are provided. The information is presented in easy-to-follow illustrations and text. LED technology overviews, trends and analysis are presented. Terms, acronyms, and abbreviations used are defined.

Brief Overview

Last year in 2014, the Latin America region consumption value of LED lamps, which are used in General Lighting, reached $181 million; ElectroniCast forecasts that the consumption value will reach $1.6 billion in 2019. The consumption value will increase with strongly rising quantity growth partially offset by declining average prices.

General Lighting Stationary Applications The definition used by ElectroniCast for General Lighting is - lighting that is used to provide the main illumination of an area. ElectroniCast includes Directional Lighting, Supplementary Lighting and Architectural Lighting in the General Lighting category.

In 2015, "architainment lighting" - a blend of architectural and event lighting has been added to the General Lighting segment. LED lamps used in signage (digital sign boards) and displays (back-lighting units for LCD/other screens) are not included in the General Lighting segment; however, for the first-time lamps used in display windows or display cases (for example: retail store displays) are now included in the General Lighting segment. LEDs in signals (for example traffic signals), portable flashlights (torches) and decorative Christmas/holiday lighting are not included in the market forecast data for this study.

LED lamps used in theaters, photography, news-gathering (TV broadcasts, film, similar) and even lighting used in nightclubs on the dance floor and in operation rooms (surgery) are also included in the General Lighting application.

LEDs are used in both functional and decorative light fixtures, with an advantage of energy savings. Compared to incandescent lighting, LED-based solid-state lighting (SSL) delivers visible light with reduced heat. In addition, its solid-state nature provides for greater resistance to shock, vibration, and wear, thereby significantly increasing its lifespan.

Below, are five levels (or "food chain") pertaining to the LED marketplace. For the purposes of this ElectroniCast study, we quantify and provide a market forecast for "Level 4"

Level 1 - The chip or die

Level 2 - The LED component (component-level bulb)

Level 3 - LED array; may include optics, heat sink and/or power supply

Level 4 - Lamp

Level 5 - Luminaire (light fixture/lamp holder/including lamp/s)

This report provides the 2014-2019 market forecast data by the following functions:

Consumption Value (US$, Million)

Quantity (number/units in Millions)

Average Selling Prices (ASP US$, each)

LED Lamps and Applications Covered in this Study

The ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting Market Forecast is built up from specific segments. The major lamp (product) categories are shown in Table 1.

LED Lamps and Applications Covered in this Study

The ElectroniCast LED Lamp General Lighting Market Forecast is built up from specific segments. The major lamp (product) categories are shown in Table 1. This market forecast of consumption is also presented by three major End-User categories:

Government

Commercial/Industrial

Residential/Non-Specific

Information Base for the Market Forecast

Primary Research This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually over the past several years, but updated through the end of December 2014. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, lamps and fittings/fixtures) and building/facility management, local/provincial and national government policy and management, LEDs, LED Lamps, LED luminaire/fixtures, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, retail store management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:

Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LEDs (chips, packaged LEDs, lamps, fixtures, controls, systems) as well as other technologies.

Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of LED lamps.

Other industry experts, including those focused on standards activities, trade associations, and investments.

The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics. Customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained. Analysis The analyst then considered customer expectations of near term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations in the Latin America region, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.

Secondary Research A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:

Professional technical journals and papers

Trade press articles; Technical conference proceedings

Product literature; Company profile and financial information

Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies

Personal knowledge of the research team.

In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the Latin America region and other world region markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.

Bottom-up Methodology ElectroniCast forecasts, as illustrated in the forecast data structure, are developed initially at the lowest detail level, then summed to successively higher levels. The background market research focuses on the amount of each type of product used in each application in the base year (2014), and the prices paid at the first transaction from the manufacturer. This forms the base year data. ElectroniCast analysts then forecast the growth rates in component quantity use in each application, along with price trends, based on competitive, economic and technology forecast trends, and apply these to derive long term forecasts at the lowest application levels. The usage growth rate forecasts depend heavily on analysis of overall end user trends toward equipment usage and economic payback.

Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of packaged LEDs, LED Driver ICs, LED materials/wafer/die/chips, LED Lamps and LED fixtures (luminaries) and other LED-based components, manufacturing processes/quality control/yields, and end-use products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each LED component field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check".

ElectroniCast, each year since 2002, has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of several LED lighting categories. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.

The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid 1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.