tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post9192605289896495818..comments2017-05-27T01:52:26.877-07:00Comments on Joe Blogs: Royals HopeJoe Posnanskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14405637102877937924noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-39074998758453063042013-04-24T20:33:09.489-07:002013-04-24T20:33:09.489-07:00That list, by the way, only includes players 32 an...That list, by the way, only includes players 32 and older. The Royals made plenty of bad choices for players younger than 32 too … but these choices were particularly specious because the players not just suspect, You can learn more: <a href="http://www.chinatour.com/china-tour-package.htm" title="China tour packages" rel="nofollow"><strong>China tour packages</strong></a> | <a href="http://www.chinatour.com/china-tour-package.htm" title="China travel packages" rel="nofollow"><strong>China travel packages</strong></a> | <a href="http://www.chinatour.com/travel-agent.htm" title="China Travel Agency" rel="nofollow"><strong>China Travel Agency</strong></a>somnus11258https://www.blogger.com/profile/09779980201131189935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-18989603547781288372013-01-14T01:36:09.225-08:002013-01-14T01:36:09.225-08:00All&#39;s for the best in the best of all possible...All&#39;s for the best in the best of all possible worlds！ I have not see post good enough like yours here.Just admire your intelligence and informative explanation. 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I assume stat guys can asnwer this, but a stud playing 160 games seems more likely to influence games than a guy starting 32 games. Am I wrong?<a href="http://www.gw4gold.com/" title="guild wars 2 gold" rel="nofollow"><strong>guild wars 2 gold</strong></a><br /><a href="http://www.gw4gold.com/" title="buy guild wars 2 gold" rel="nofollow"><strong>buy guild wars 2 gold</strong></a><br /><a href="http://www.gw4gold.com/" title="cheap guild wars 2 gold" rel="nofollow"><strong>cheap guild wars 2 gold</strong></a><br /><a href="http://www.gw4gold.com/" title="cheapest guild wars 2 gold" rel="nofollow"><strong>cheapest guild wars 2 gold</strong></a><br /><a href="http://www.gw4gold.com/" title="guild wars 2 gold for sale" rel="nofollow"><strong>guild wars 2 gold for sale</strong></a>han yuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14805751626434672358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-55477278362171505732013-01-11T01:25:39.748-08:002013-01-11T01:25:39.748-08:00I can understand how Royals might look short term ...I can understand how Royals might look short term rather than long term, which I suppose cuts against my horror at trading Myers. I just would not let him go. We, apparently, have a stud. 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Christmas is just around the corner, as a...Come on! Christmas is just around the corner, as a thanks and reward for subscribers support, diablohome give out free $1 and $5 voucher for all newsletter subscribers and you can use it when <strong><a href="http://www.diablohome.com/" title="diablo gold" rel="nofollow">diablo gold</a></strong>or any products on our site. Hurry to see more details!<br /><br><br />What can I get from Diablohome Newsletter?<br />1.<strong>Free $1 and $5 vouchers</strong>.<br />2. Free Diablo 3 guide and latest update information of the game.<br />3. 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The A&#39;s ro...Totally different story in Oakland. The A&#39;s rookie starters were mostly highly regarded prospects. No one was really worried about the rotation.<br /><br />Oakland&#39;s problem was offense. For a while, the entire outfield consisted of Ryan Sweeney. A dizzying array of good fortune on offense led to the A&#39;s 2012 title. Cespedes was everything advertised and more. Chris Carter broke out. Brandon Moss broke out (out of nowhere). Reddick was a stud. Coco Crisp saved the lead-off role after Jemile Weeks flamed out. The offense was a patchwork jumble of awesome.<br /><br />That&#39;s what the Royals need. The same shrewdness/dumb luck with gambles on less-than-perfect ballplayers.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06425519306433154991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-53566925905434559382012-11-28T18:36:28.107-08:002012-11-28T18:36:28.107-08:00The simple solution, to those who are asking, is t...The simple solution, to those who are asking, is to find someone to make D.(bag)Glass an offer he can&#39;t refuse ($$$$$, not a Godfatherish way)Hupakouo Rockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01157159164542580620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-57260003546347953252012-11-28T18:30:56.337-08:002012-11-28T18:30:56.337-08:00who is the solid #2 already here? really?who is the solid #2 already here? really?Hupakouo Rockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01157159164542580620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-57234750112408114302012-11-28T18:29:47.774-08:002012-11-28T18:29:47.774-08:00As a Tiger fan...Crow can barely get through 2 inn...As a Tiger fan...Crow can barely get through 2 innings in the pen for a full year. Never be a starter.Hupakouo Rockhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01157159164542580620noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-52862276010397150322012-11-28T01:19:50.320-08:002012-11-28T01:19:50.320-08:00اجمل دردشة عراقية رومنسية ترفيهية يظم كافة العراقي...اجمل دردشة عراقية رومنسية ترفيهية يظم كافة العراقيين والعرب والاجانب<br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">شات عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">دردشة عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">جات عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">شلة عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow"> عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">شات العراق</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">دردشة عراقية</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">شات كيكه</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">دردشة عبدالله</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">جات</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com" rel="nofollow">دردشة</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com/vb" rel="nofollow">منتدى دردشة عراقنا</a><br /><a href="http://www.iraaqna.com/vb" rel="nofollow">منتدى عراقنا</a><br />دردشة ومنتديات عراقناhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16107062079718312184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-60100567713364671002012-11-27T07:39:28.096-08:002012-11-27T07:39:28.096-08:00It always cracks me up that the Royals take on the...It always cracks me up that the Royals take on the Braves castoffs. Guys the Braves have flat out given up on. Francoeur, Chen, Bryan Pena, Melky, Farnsworth (granted the Braves tried to sign him until the Yankees offered stupid money), Davies, Betemit, Mahay, Horacio Ramirez... I&#39;m probably missing someone. When you have a pipeline of castoffs from a team that is well run, you have to wonder what the thought process might be. The Braves were WRONG? And KC just knows they are going to be good players? Or, here&#39;s someone mediocre who can play a little for cheap (except for Francoeur) until we find something better? Either way, that&#39;s a terrible strategy.Rob Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09317159287685427125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-26950886202380952662012-11-26T21:41:59.669-08:002012-11-26T21:41:59.669-08:00Another thought is that isn&#39;t a stud in the 3 ...Another thought is that isn&#39;t a stud in the 3 hole going to have as significant potential role in every close game? Whereas, a pitcher would only be determinative in maybe at most half his starts? I realize I may be wrong in the eyes of a top stat guy, but I see the three hole hitter as having much more significance than a startign pitcher. I&#39;m really influenced by the Angels winning only 7 or Greinke&#39;s 13 starts. Looked at it that way (realize small sample size and other factors), he was hardly worth anything to the Angels. Kansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-78613288206890243892012-11-26T21:37:25.745-08:002012-11-26T21:37:25.745-08:00Great answer. Thank you very much.
It is in pa...Great answer. Thank you very much. <br /><br />It is in part the eye versus the stats. For example, I saw Alex Gordon coming up so often last year in key situations and also making many nice plays. He had almost a 6 WAR so I assume he is so good that you would trade him for few, if any, pitchers. But beyond his quality, he was up all the time in crucial situations with the ability to influence a game. <br /><br />I can understand how Royals might look short term rather than long term, which I suppose cuts against my horror at trading Myers. I just would not let him go. We, apparently, have a stud. Lets go with him and not some pitcher who goes out every 5 days and could blow out his arm.Kansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-43818407083967750982012-11-26T20:42:18.372-08:002012-11-26T20:42:18.372-08:00Per your #2:
First, lets look at this simply. A p...Per your #2:<br /><br />First, lets look at this simply. A player playing 150 games has more chances to both positively and negatively influence games. This causes their contribution to even out over time. In addition, pitchers have a much much greater amount of influence in their 32 games than 1 batter does in his 150. Look at it this way, a batter might influence 7 total at bats(4 AB&#39;s for him and 3 defensive plays) A pitcher who pitches 7 innings probably influences 25-30 at bats. More if the pitcher has to hit as well. So the pitcher has roughly 4 times more influence per game. Extrapolate that and the pitcher ends up influencing about 130 &quot;batter&quot; games. A minimal difference really.<br /><br /><br />It depends.<br />Lets look at the three examples people have been throwing out a lot. WE&#39;ll assume a straight player A for player B trade to simplify.<br />1. James Shields. Shields is relatively consistant, and consistantly good. There&#39;s no reason he can&#39;t continue the last 2 years of performance and post 4.5 WAR per year. But he&#39;s only under contract for 2 years(both option years) and that&#39;s at 9 and 12 million respectively. At $5 million per win, Shields will give us 9 total wins, but cost 4 wins, giving us 5 wins of surplus value. Is that worth 6 years of Myers? especially when 3 of them are basically free? Even if we assume Myers makes a ludicrous amount in arbitration and makes $30 million over his last 3 years, he&#39;d just have to provide less than 2 WAR per year to be technically more valuable.<br /><br />2. Hellickson: Concerns abound about this youngster, but lets assume he manages to continue to beat the odds, a bizarro Luke Hochevar if you will. It wouldn&#39;t be out of the question for Hellickson to provide 3-4 WAR per year for the next 4 years. We&#39;ll give him a total of 14 and split the difference. However he has just one more cost controlled year and should be well paid in arbitration. Let&#39;s say $25 million over his 3 arbitration years. This sets the bar a little higher for Myers. He&#39;d need to provide just under 3 WAR per year to match Hellickson.<br /><br />3. Hultzen(or any rookie/prospect): Myers is more valuable. It doesn&#39;t really matter who it is, the higher chances of busting, getting injured or underperforming are higher for pitchers. Given two equal prospects, one hitter, one pitcher, always take the hitter. Even if you&#39;d sell your soul for a #2.<br /><br />So the question then is where do you think Myers ends up?<br />If its 2 WAR or more, he&#39;s probably better long term than Shields (for comparison Garrett Jones had 1.9 WAR last year)<br />If its 3 WAR or more, he&#39;d probably better long term than Hellickson(For comparison Norichika Aoki had 2.9 WAR)<br />Timothyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15289646785852748255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-39133512172291938132012-11-26T19:34:40.511-08:002012-11-26T19:34:40.511-08:00I read it one time in one of your columns (I belie...I read it one time in one of your columns (I believe quoting Bill James):<br /><br />You can hope Jeremy Guthrie works out. You can hope Ervin Santana works out. You can hope Bruce Chen spins out another year of averageishness with underwhelming stuff. But in the end. . . .<br /><br />. . . .hope is not a plan. ethegolfmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08040831797547351964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-40890131926169095992012-11-26T17:45:10.120-08:002012-11-26T17:45:10.120-08:00I just read Passan&#39;s story about how the Royal...I just read Passan&#39;s story about how the Royals are highly motivated to find a top player and are shopping Myers. STOP. DON&#39;T DO IT.<br /><br />1. I can just sense DM is about to be fleeced.<br /><br />2. Even putting to one side reason 1, isn&#39;t a star every day player worth more than a starting pitcher? I assume stat guys can asnwer this, but a stud playing 160 games seems more likely to influence games than a guy starting 32 games. Am I wrong?<br /><br />I am influenced by the Angels winning only 7 of Grienke&#39;s 13 starts. The Royals won 10 of Guthrie&#39;s 14 starts.<br /><br />http://sports.yahoo.com/news/royals-willing-to-part-with-top-prospect-to-land-frontline-starting-pitcher-015456742.htmlKansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-42360240603025293912012-11-26T17:26:44.574-08:002012-11-26T17:26:44.574-08:00Absolutely correct. The Royals record of securing...Absolutely correct. The Royals record of securing over the hill players is amazing, but these moves make sense.Kansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-49308378755810078972012-11-26T17:24:30.782-08:002012-11-26T17:24:30.782-08:00This is exactly right. As I read Joe&#39;s piece,...This is exactly right. As I read Joe&#39;s piece, I asked myself what does he say the Royals should do. He did no answer that question. I think Guthrie is a good move. I don&#39;t know about Santana, but is seems worth the gamble. They get two starters fo $16 million next year.Kansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-59213689708846087582012-11-26T15:09:03.220-08:002012-11-26T15:09:03.220-08:00Please God, no.Please God, no.Chris Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12283727653630034337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-54911108492030601632012-11-26T13:26:50.881-08:002012-11-26T13:26:50.881-08:00Myers to the Rays for either Shields or Hellickson...Myers to the Rays for either Shields or Hellickson!!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15265572777783458301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-8423154431327295852012-11-26T12:45:31.654-08:002012-11-26T12:45:31.654-08:00That is a brilliant idea.That is a brilliant idea.Sports injurieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13423747431292530871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-78834403972539206882012-11-26T10:14:46.200-08:002012-11-26T10:14:46.200-08:00The Royals might actually be better off turning lo...The Royals might actually be better off turning loose their army of relievers in a more-successful version of last season&#39;s Rockies experiment - nobody goes more than three or four innings. Surely ten good three-inning guys is better than four average-to-horrible six-inning ones. Fine, use all ten of them. Maybe older guys like Guthrie and Santana can go deep on their good days, give you a traditional start here and there to rest the horde; if they run into trouble, first sign, get them out. Get one or two good trips through the order out of them, rather than two good trips and one disaster.<br /><br />It&#39;s almost like the article you wrote about using Tebow in a different fashion, Pos. The Royals have that &quot;nothing to lose at all&quot; status, the only place something like this could be attempted. If it fails, well, the alternative wasn&#39;t working to begin with, no worse harm done. If it succeeds, though? Why not?nightflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04666773766092187348noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-51253592985570507432012-11-26T05:28:02.866-08:002012-11-26T05:28:02.866-08:00It&#39;s certainly perfectly fair for you to catal...It&#39;s certainly perfectly fair for you to catalog the Royals&#39; personnel failures of the past. It&#39;s their record, they have to own it. But in this case you seem to be firing away at a pair of moves that actually were somewhat encouraging, for a couple of reasons.<br /><br />First, in both cases, it demonstrates a willingness for the Royals to spend money, which has not always been the case. They just laid out market-value contracts (or in Santana&#39;s case, agreed to take one on) to a pair of pitchers. Take Guthrie. Absent his 41 hideous innings in Coors Field last year, the guy has been a slightly above-average starting pitcher in some pretty tough pitching environments his entire career. His ERA+ outside of Colorado is roughly 105. Glancing through some other 30+ aged starters with similar career marks and you&#39;ll find Guthrie may actually be a bit underpaid. James Shields (31-years old in a couple of weeks, career ERA+ of 107) makes $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. Ted Lilly (almost 37, 107 career ERA+) has averaged $11 million the last 4 years and will make $13 million next year. John Lackey (34-years old, career ERA+ of 107) is averaging $16 million per year on his current deal (which is admittedly a horrible contract). Wandy Rodriguez (soon to be 34, 102 career ERA+) made $10 million last year and will get $13 million in both 2013 and 2014. Aaron Harang, despite going into his age-35 season, having a career ERA+ of 101 and a horrible injury history, is still going to make $7 million in 2013 and 2014. This is the market for pitching, and the Royals are simply conforming to it.<br /><br />Second, acquiring starting pitching for nothing but dollars instead of real talent is precisely what the Royals should be doing. It&#39;s the team&#39;s one clear weakness. The bullpen is solid. The offense, while just 12th in the league in runs, shows signs of improving as their young players mature, they replace Francoeur with Myers, and a couple of players have healthy seasons. It&#39;s the rotation that sucks, and they know it and are trying to address it. I don&#39;t see how it&#39;s fair to drop this criticism on them right now. In the past they&#39;ve certainly earned it, but these two moves fall far more into the encouraging category than anything else. Paul Whitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11393600178387119479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8402114294178293353.post-65801103974902184882012-11-25T23:10:53.320-08:002012-11-25T23:10:53.320-08:00Joe,
One thing I&#39;ve always been curious about...Joe,<br /><br />One thing I&#39;ve always been curious about: Have you ever heard of a player admitting he signed with a bad team with the idea of getting flipped at the deadline to a contender in mind? I&#39;m sure at some point plenty of guys have said to themselves, &quot;Well, no one good is calling offering guaranteed playing time. Might as well sign with the Royals, hope I have a good year, and get to finish out the season with the Yankees or the Cardinals and maybe snag a ring.&quot; It sounds like the kind of thing no one not named Melky would admit to, though.Johnny Peachpithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03709147793941368280noreply@blogger.com