Sunday, October 21, 2007

More On Guns

It seems to me that you have the wrong end of the statistical stick, and your argument is specious.

The original proposition you question:

However the connection between liberal gun laws and a high gun crime rate is very questionable.

The final conclusion you draw:

There is, therefore, little evidence from the US supporting a correlation between high rates of gun ownership and high murder rates.

You have refuted a different proposition from the one you claim to countering. You have switched from "gun murder rates" to "overall murder rates" at some point. No one asserted that there was a correlation between liberal gun laws and high OVERALL crime rates.

Looking at your stats, and using the rates for GUN crime - not overall crime - as these are the ones you set out to address, your argument proves the original assertion you set out to question.

I actually suspect Matt's criticisms are on target: The stats I used did switch from gun crime and gun murder rates to murder in general. However, I suspect his conclusion is false. The stats I was able to find from a quick google search suggested that the percentage of murders that are committed with a gun is lower in heavily armed states than in states where the populace is less well armed.

The percentage of the population who own guns in the least heavily armed states are Hawaii 8.7%, New Jersey 12.3%, Massachusetts 12.6%, Rhode Island 12.8%.

The percentage of murders by gun in Hawaii is 43.5 %. In New Jersey it is 61 %. In Massachusets its 47.4%. In Rhode Island its 63.4%.

The four most heavily armed states the ones where the perecentage of population owning guns is highest, is Wyoming, at 59.7%, Alaska, at 57.8%, Montana 57.7%, South Dakota 56.6%.

The percentage of murders committed with a gun in Wyoming is 40%. In Alaska it is 52.9%, in Montana it is 50%, in South Dakota its 33%.

The average rate of gun ownership in four least heavily armed states is 11.6% The average murder rate in the four least heavily armed states is 3.025 people in 100,000. The average percent of the murders that is committed by gun in these least heavily armed states is 53.825%

The average rate of gun ownership in the most heavily armed states is 57.95%. The average murder rate in the most heavily armed states is 3.325 people in 100,000. The average percentage of these murders that is committed by gun is 43.975%.

So you are only very slightly more likely to be murdered in one of the states where gun ownership is most widespread than you are in one of the states where it is least widespread, but you are much less likely to be killed with a gun in states where gun ownership is most widespread than you are in states where gun ownership is least widespread.

Moreover, the figures I have used have been percentage of homicides committed by gun, not percentage of murders. Homicides can include lawful killings. This would make the actual percentage of murders committed by guns even lower. On top of this, I only had figures on gun-caused homicides for the states, not districts. I have no doubt that stats for DC would tip things even further in favour of gun ownership.

As cream for the pudding, here's this story, with the accompanying video:

A guy with a gun caught career burglar in his house. Being armed, he was able to detain the criminal until the police arrived. had he not been armed, the criminals could have got away... or worse. What is the lesson?