Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Ya' think?

Over his 30-year political career, Kerry has long been knocked for
delivering more talk than results. Achieving a nuclear deal he first
began pursuing even before he became secretary of state could redefine
his place in history.

And that, Republican critics, foreign officials, and even
some ex-administration officials say, is a big problem. Kerry’s
eagerness for a deal, they argue, risks that the Iranians will seduce
him into a bad one.

“I don’t know how anyone who has
observed Kerry over the past two years would think differently,” says a
former administration official who worked on Iran issues.

...

The concern is that, in search of a historic accomplishment with his
name on it, Kerry might succumb to wishful thinking. As a senator, Kerry
was dogged by the critique that he authored few major bills over his
30-year career. He won the Democratic nomination in 2004 but lost his
bid for the presidency. And since arriving at Foggy Bottom he has been
frustrated in his efforts to contain Vladimir Putin in Ukraine and,
above all, in his so-far fruitless quest for Middle East peace.

Allies
say the conventional wisdom sells short his Senate and Foggy Bottom
record, including his recent role brokering a peaceful resolution to
Afghanistan’s disputed presidential election amid fears of a civil war.

...

Of course, many critics of the talks fret that Obama faces much the
same pressure as Kerry for a legacy-making achievement, especially in
the realm of foreign policy, where Obama has faced an unrelenting string
of crises in recent months. A new article in the conservative Weekly Standard
attacking Obama’s “capitulation” to Iran notes that Deputy National
Security Adviser Ben Rhodes has likened an Iran deal to Obamacare in its
importance to the administration.
Obama challenged the idea that he is overeager for a nuclear deal in an interview last month with The Atlantic’s
Jeffrey Goldberg. “Twenty years from now … [if] Iran has a nuclear
weapon, it’s my name on this,” Obama said, adding: “I have a personal
interest in locking this down.”

But
Kerry’s own investment is also huge. He has pursued a nuclear deal since
he was a senator, well before the administration’s direct diplomacy got
underway: As chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Kerry
secretly flew to Muscat in November 2011, where he asked the Sultan of
Oman to help broker talks between Washington and Tehran. That set the
stage for the administration’s first direct contacts with Iranian
officials on the nuclear question.

Striking a deal
in Vienna this summer will require persuading Iran’s supreme leader to
backtrack on his own stated red lines, including on the pace of
sanctions relief and access of inspectors to Iranian military sites and
nuclear scientists.

It's unlikely that Iran will back down on any or all of those points - it's far more likely that the US will cave on them. And 20 years from now, Obama will be happily retired at US government expense and Kerry will likely have gone on to greener pastures (or to a much hotter place). They won't care about their 'legacy.'

Dennis Ross got it right:

Dennis Ross, another former senior Middle East aide under Obama with
long experience in diplomatic negotiations said the key to effective
deal making is “being able to show you have a genuine interest in a deal
but can live without one.”

“We should show little
interest in a deadline and focus exclusively on our essential needs,”
Ross added. If Iran won’t meet those needs, Ross said, then Kerry should
“suggest a pause — but with the proviso that we will also reassess
where we are, with the understanding that our positions are likely to
harden.”

This administration doesn't know how to ignore deadlines. It's just one of the many things they don't get about the Middle East bazaar. They have the same problems in 'negotiations' about a 'Palestinian state.'

2 Comments:

Dennis Ross, a Peace Processor, endlessly runs interference for the Left. All that is happening is delays, allowing Iran to pursue a "make or buy" approach. To make Israel uninhabitable without killing their own entire population, all Iran needs is dirty bombs.

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I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com