'A bunch of frustrated people' in the Obama administration are floating a bold new plan for Syria

US
Secretary of State John Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif, after the International Atomic Energy
Agency verified that Iran has met all conditions under the
nuclear deal, in Vienna on January 16.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

The Obama administration is weighing a "plan B" for Syria should
the cessation of hostilities currently in place between
rebels and the regime begin to unravel,
The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

Plans to supply the moderate-opposition forces with more powerful
weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, are apparently being
drafted by the CIA, along with a proposal to send
an additional 250 US special-operations forces into
Syria to advise the rebels.

"There has been a big debate inside the administration on how
much to do to help turn the tide of the Syrian war," geopolitical
expert Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, told
Business Insider on Wednesday.

He continued: "So part of this is a bunch of frustrated people
inside the administration — and
John Kerry is one ... floating their preferred option to
get the rebels some support."

US Secretary of State John Kerry has pestered US President
Barack Obama "so many times to ramp up the military mission" in
Syria that "the president stipulated that only the secretary of
defense could bring him military proposals," Bloomberg View's
Josh Rogin
reported on Wednesday.

But Obama has so far refused to supply US-backed rebels
with these weapons directly, and experts are skeptical that he
would follow through on such a dramatic policy shift in the
remaining months of his tenure.

"The White House doesn't mind a little tough talk to keep
opponents guessing," Bremmer said. "But ultimately, Obama has
already recognized that he's handing off the Syria war to the
next president. He's not happy about it. But he's not going to
significantly escalate in his closing months."

'Let's not hold our breath'

Andrew Tabler, a Syria and US policy expert at The
Washington Institute, was also bearish at the possibility of
escalation from the US.

"We have heard such things before, so
let's not hold our breath," Tabler told
Business Insider on Wednesday.

As many analysts have noted, it is not the first time
Obama-administration officials have floated the idea of ramping
up support for Syria's more moderate rebel groups. And
according to Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle East
politics and international relations at the London
School of Economics, this new plan B
is neither novel nor a secret.

"There is nothing mysterious about it," Gerges told
Business Insider in an email. "US officials have
publicly made it clear that if Geneva fails they would revert to
plan B, which means providing qualitative weapons, including
MANPADS to the Syrian rebels."

"MANPADS" stands for "man-portable air-defense
systems."

Free
Syrian Army before heading to the front line in Aleppo on January
8.Zain
Karam/Reuters

Thefact that certain details of the plan were
leaked, however, "serves a two-pronged purpose," Gerges said:
"to exert pressure on the Russians and to reassure
critics at home and in the region that the Obama administration
has not outsourced the Syrian problem to Russia."

But Russia has yet to prove that it is not completely
beholden to the embattled Syrian president, Bashar Assad, who —
fresh off of his victory over the terrorist group ISIS at Palmyra
— has
grown only more defiant leading up to the latest round of
peace talks.

"Such plans are the result of the
difficulties diplomats are trying to overcome in Geneva," said
Tabler of The Washington Institute.

He continued:

President Assad has become extremely rigid in his
negotiating stance, and is attempting to impose a political
solution without a "transition." This is on the back of
substantial military support from Russia, who wants a transition
of sorts with Bashar al-Assad as president.

Russian
President Vladimir Putin and his now ex-wife Lyudmila welcome
Syrian President Bashar Assad and his wife, Asma, in Moscow's
Kremlin in 2013.REUTERS/Sergei
Chirikov

That makes itunlikely that the threat of
introducing MANPADS into the conflict will affect Moscow's
tactics there. And some analysts say that doing so might give
Russia and Assad more leverage to argue that the US is hindering,
rather than promoting, peace.

"It's hard to distance the US from a rebel shoot-down of a
Russian jet when the administration is floating introducing
MANPADS to the battlefield," said Michael
Pregent, Adjunct Fellow at the Hudson Institute
and former US Army intelligence officer in Iraq. "It gives
Russia, Iran, and Assad more leverage."

But it could also give Kerry important leverage of his own
at Geneva, said Fred Hof,a former special
adviser for transition in Syria under then US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton.

"As a practical matter, unless Syrian civilians are taken
off the bull's-eye, there can be no progress toward a political
settlement in Syria," Hof told Business Insider. Surface-to-air
missiles "or MANPADS would not turn the tide of
battle decisively in Syria, but what they could do
is make it more difficult for the Assad regime and Russian pilots
to commit war crimes every time they take off."