With the S&P Crossing 1200, Gains in ’05 Could Be Limited

The S&P 500 closed today at 1203, its highest level since the third quarter of 2001. The market’s strong rally in the last five weeks clearly has boosted morale on Wall Street, but can we expect this upward move to continue?

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the market has a lot more room to run. Earnings are expected to rise about 8 percent in 2005, and the S&P 500 trades at 17.2 times the current $70 earnings estimate for that index, hardly cheap.

If we take an aggressive profit growth forecast of +10 percent for next year, and put a fairly rich 18x multiple on that, we get a 1300 target on the S&P, about 8 percent higher than where the market stands today. Much like 2004, next year should prove to be another solid year for stock-pickers, but an uneventful year for index fund owners.

There are still several issues that could derail continued economic growth in the coming months; sustained $40 per barrel oil, Middle East trouble during the January elections in Iraq, as well as the fear of rising inflation and/or interest rates. All in all, it makes sense to be cautiously optimistic as investors structure their portfolios for the coming year.

Blog Archive by Category

Peridot Capital Management LLC is a registered investment advisor in the states of Maryland, Missouri, Texas, and Washington. The firm may not transact business in states where it is not appropriately registered or excluded and/or exempted from registration. In most states, a registered investment advisor is exempt from registration if it has fewer than six clients who are residents of that state. As a result, Peridot Capital Management LLC is permitted to provide services to residents outside of the states listed above and when required will apply for registration in additional states. Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption.

The content published on our blog represents the opinions of Mr. Brand and he and/or his clients may hold positions in securities discussed. Such positions will be disclosed at the time of publication, although subsequent changes to those positions will be made without notification. The information contained in blog posts is believed to be accurate when published, however, mistakes could be made. As a result, do not rely on the content exclusively for your investment due diligence.
The commentaries published do not way constitute investment advice, as readers' personal investment goals and risk tolerances will dictate which investments are appropriate for them. Our blog is meant to be one of many sources for readers to conduct their own research into specific investments. Consult an investment professional before acting solely on information found on this site. If you do not have an investment professional to work with, you may contact Peridot Capital Management LLC directly.