Walking along the Port Royal in Paris, we came across the statue of a dashing soldier. Sword in hand, he was leading the charge – on foot. Confident. Handsome. Audacious. And there, on the pedestal of the statue, was a list of the battles he fought. It’s a good thing his own people shot him when they did, otherwise there would not have been space to list all his battles.

Today, the most important “known unknown” in all of finance – something so powerful it could change the character of the entire global economy. But first, a short trip to Paris… On the walls of the chapel at the French military school are rich paintings…

We have proven – beyond reasonable doubt – that if anyone can predict the market’s movements, he doesn’t work at the Diary. But when it comes to the economy, we claim a little credibility. We saw the debt crisis of 2008 coming. Addison Wiggin and I wrote about how America was due a debt collapse in our 2006 book, The Empire of Debt.

Why should stock market investors care about Napoleon’s invasion of Russia? Or the fate of General Custer at the Battle of Little Bighorn? Or the sinking of the Titanic? Because as Bill explains below, every disaster carries with it an important warning.