Retail investors in the UK lost more than 197 million GBP to scammers in 2018 alone, the local Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) reports. The numbers, based on 6759 complaints and data form Action Fraud, the UK’s national fraud reporting service, mean that on average a scam victim has lost 29 000 GBP.

The most common scams were connected to offshore, unregulated companies offering forex trade, as well as cryoto currencies, stocks and bonds. Scams with those asset classes amount to 85% of all fraudulent activities in 2018.

Scammers, however are using new tools for their clandestine activities. Although until recently the most common techniques was to cold call a victim, now more an more often con artists use the social media, emails and the so called “robo scam” websites.

Currency values play a critical role in international trade, influencing the profitability of exporting and importing. Large movements in currency values are often controversial, leading to accusations of “manipulation” or even “currency wars.”

In this episode, Janet Yellen, distinguished fellow in residence with the Economic Studies Program and former chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, discusses with host David Dollar the links among monetary policy, exchange rates, and trade. She cites the “taper tantrum” of 2013 and the Chinese devaluation of 2015 as cases where Fed policy and currency markets influenced each other.

Currency values play a critical role in international trade, influencing the profitability of exporting and importing. Large movements in currency values are often controversial, leading to accusations of “manipulation” or even “currency wars.”

In this episode, Janet Yellen, distinguished fellow in residence with the Economic Studies Program and former chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, discusses with host David Dollar the links among monetary policy, exchange rates, and trade. She cites the “taper tantrum” of 2013 and the Chinese devaluation of 2015 as cases where Fed policy and currency markets influenced each other.

Currency values play a critical role in international trade, influencing the profitability of exporting and importing. Large movements in currency values are often controversial, leading to accusations of “manipulation” or even “currency wars.”

In this episode, Janet Yellen, distinguished fellow in residence with the Economic Studies Program and former chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, discusses with host David Dollar the links among monetary policy, exchange rates, and trade. She cites the “taper tantrum” of 2013 and the Chinese devaluation of 2015 as cases where Fed policy and currency markets influenced each other.

The dollar rebound in February has admittedly caught us by surprise. We attribute this USD strength to a confluence of factors, including a technical correction and angst about a global slowdown (ex-US) that has proven to be deeper than we expected. We notably think hunt for yield (the carry trade) has helped the dollar against G10 FX, which also explains why higher-yielding EM FX has held up well in the past couple of weeks. This has prompted us to revise a number of our forecasts while maintaining a bearish stance on the greenback.

we have lowered our EURUSD forecast trajectory and now see the pair ending the year at 1.20
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More specifically, we have lowered our EURUSD forecast trajectory and now see the pair ending the year at 1.20 (1.24 previously). This change is based on a euro-area slowdown that has been sharper and more protracted than we anticipated. It suggests that low-yielding currencies such as the euro will struggle in the near term. However, the external headwinds to the region are likely to abate if the US and China reach a compromise (our central scenario). The subsequent economic recovery should allow the euro to appreciate against the USD which, in our view, remains vulnerable to a rise in US risk premia due to the ballooning twin deficit.

On CHF, we maintain our forecasts unchanged, expecting a very gradual EURCHF appreciation later this year as the SNB retains and potentially intensifies its dovish stance. On sterling, economic data and monetary policy expectations seem irrelevant for now as all that matters is Brexit negotiations. Although we still hold the view of a soft Brexit – which would propel GBP higher – we would point out that the market so far has been fairly complacent as regards the tail risk of a no-deal Brexit.

On sterling, economic data and monetary policy expectations seem irrelevant for now as all that matters is Brexit negotiations
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We have turned slightly cautious on our bullish call for the yen, at least in the near term, as positive developments on the trade front would support risk appetite and penalise safe havens. Eventually, however, USDJPY will end up being a dollar play. This, together with still-wide yen undervaluation, suggests that USDJPY will move south throughout 2019.

In China, we strongly believe that financial stability and thus currency stability continue to reign supreme for the country’s leadership
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In China, we strongly believe that financial stability and thus currency stability continue to reign supreme for the country’s leadership. We remain constructive on the yuan in anticipation of a trade cease-fire between the US and China.

Turning to Nordic currencies, we have revised higher our EURNOK and EURSEK forecasts, but still expect NOK (mostly) and SEK gains this year as we feel monetary policy expectations are currently under-priced. In the commodity FX bloc, our preference remains for the CAD and (less so) for the AUD.