THURSDAY NIGHT LOOP

Yes – it’s back!

I’m only covering the big two here and that’s Zach Merrett and Andrew Gaff.

Zach Merrett has a smashing record against the Eagles with scores of 103, 126, 123 and 137 coming in his last four against them. The catch is, that 103 was his most recent against them and on that day, Mark Hutchings tagged him.

Last week, Merrett was on track for a solid 120, before being tagged to just 9pts in the last quarter. This tag looks very likely to find him again, but as I don’t have Gaff in my team, Zach will carry my VC, but not with a lot of confidence.

If you have Andrew Gaff, then just lock him and wait to see what he does. Being at home ticks a huge box for Gaff who has scored 100+ there in his last 15 games straight. From his 5 games there this year, he hasn’t gone under 115. Maybe he could get some attention from Dylan Clarke, but who cares. He’s at home and we don’t have many other quality options.

CALVIN’S TOP TEN

#1 – Max Gawn v Fremantle @ the MCG

Firstly, Gawn is the #1 most inform player available to us this week with an average of 135 in his last three. In this one, he is up against Sean Darcy who is a quality ruckman who finished his first game for the year last week looking very sore.

In that game, Lycett (76) and Ryder (70) shared the ruck duties against him as they won the hit out tally 46 to 30.

Max rucked against Darcy last year in round 16. That day he scored 124. In that same year when Darcy was playing, other ruckman scored at relative ease against him. Grundy posted a solid 126 on him and even poor ruckman such as Lobbe (103) and Abbott (109) also had days out.

The other big green tick I have for Max here is… the game is at the MCG where he has scored well in his last three, against much better ruckman than Darcy. He racked up 148 on Grundy recently and 132 (Mumford) and 121 (McEvoy) before that.

#2 – Brodie Grundy v Bulldogs @ MRVL

He has been sore (ankle and neck) and prefers to play at the MCG. For those reasons alone, he sits under Gawn here.

Grundy played against the Dogs (English) in round four this year and gave him a bath with 153pts (58 hitouts) to English’s 86pts and 6 hit outs.

Rucks against Tim English don’t struggle, as on average they average 16 p.p.g more than their initially average. Kreuzer (94), Vardy (75) and Goldstein (153) where the last three ruckman English faced and you can see why I really like Grundy this week.

Grundy has played just one game at Marvel this year for 99 and there is no doubt, English is easier than who Max faces, and therefore if he was fully fit and at the MCG, I’d have him slightly ahead. But he isn’t, but still should be huge.

#3 – Jake Lloyd v Hawthorn @ the SCG

Oh boy, I love this match-up… if he doesn’t get tagged by Cousins.

I highly doubt he will, but if I was coaching against Sydney, then he would be high on my radar. The Hawks showed last week, they were willing to shut-down a ball magnet (Merrett) and this could very well happen here to a guy who has been on fire (or Luke Parker). However, if he avoids the tag… then look out.

In his 11 games this year, Lloyd has scored 7×120+ with scores of 149, 129, 105 and 112 coming in his last four.

It should be wet though (see graphic), but the Hawks give up plenty and if he can avoid any attention, he’ll have 14 marks and a huge 130+ score.

#4 – Patrick Dangerfield v Port Adelaide @ AO

Danger had a nice 162 before his break and has scored well against Port in the past with 109, 125 and 115. He loves playing at Adelaide Oval where he has averaged 127 in his last five.

#5 – Josh Dunkley v Collingwood @ MRVL

Running red hot at the moment with 158 last week to be the second top scorer of the round. Only had 67 on the Pies earlier this year, but things are much different now he’s back in the middle where he belongs.

#6 – Jack Macrae v Collingwood @ MRVL

Amazingly, Collingwood are Macrae’s favourite team to score against over his career. He carries a lowest score of 109 against them in his last six games and returns to Marvel where he averages 109 this season. Flag though… the only midfielders are Nat Fyfe and Angus Brayshaw who have gone over 120 against the Pies in the last four weeks.

#7 – Lachie Neale v St Kilda @ MRVL

106, 117, 104 and 112 are his last four scores against the Saints and he goes for his fifth straight 100+ score at Marvel this week. Miles (126) and Swallow (115) were good last week against the Saints and so should Neale here.

#8 – Adam Treloar v Bulldogs @ MRVL

Carlton didn’t have a midfielder score over 90 against the Dogs last week who can be restrictive on their day (Pies are better than Blues, I get that though). Treloar last played the Dogs in 2015 where he scored 111.

#9 – Nat Fyfe v Melbourne @ the MCG

Since round 9, six midfielders have scored over 125 against the Dees. Fyfe has posted 122 at the MCG already this year, but I think we have better options despite a solid score coming.

#10 – Tim Kelly v Port Adelaide @ AO

Form gets the gun into the list this week off the back of his recent games of 129, 98 and 126.

34 Comments

Has been kicking goals in the WAFL as a small crumbing forward. Will be straight out when Willie Rioli is back after his suspension so I would avoid unless he has an unbelievable match and avoids getting the chop.

He is the younger brother of Charlie Cameron who plays for Brisbane. He plays the same role as Charlie small forward. I don’t think he’ll get you big scores. Also might be straight out of the side when Rioli comes back.

I have the choice of bringing in Macrae or Duncan this week. Whoever I don’t get this week, I’ll probably bring in next week to complete my team. I can see Macrae was listed above and I like the option, but Duncan wasn’t mentioned and I can also see him going pretty well against a Port team looking like having a lot of changes. Thoughts?

The decision basically comes down to who scores higher this week (though if I get Macrae, I can toss up whether to bring in Taranto next week instead of Duncan, or Zerrett once the risk of a tag is lessened)

Duncan is a top 8 midfielder; Macrae is not. If you are chasing consistency and high scores, Duncan is the better option by far. If you are chasing value from a fallen premo, then Macrae is the way to go. I have Duncan, and he just sits in my team providing great scores, so I don’t have to worry about him. Taranto is the same – set and forget; I am so glad I have both. Macrae has coach Bevo, so there is always a risk of a random role change.

I may have to bring in Macrae this week until he increases in price so I can switch him to a top 8 mid after my team has no more rooks on field.

Being a Pies supporter, I am a big fan of Sier. He was killing it in the twos, and with Beams out his JS should be good. My only problem with him is we have no guarantee he will hit 90s all the time. I’m actually trying to think of excuses not to get him, and all I can come up with is it is usually not so good to chase midprice stepping stones when you should be completing your team. It’s the same reason for not bringing in Hanners in this week.

If he does hit 90s, it will have been a master stroke. I only have one more spot in my midfield to fill and I will be looking to an existing premo. I would have liked Sier to come in earlier and he is too expensive to chase as a cash generator, even though he will rise in value.

I would bring in Gaff. Macrae is a fallen premo so you know he is capable of big scores, but his coach has a habit of changing their roles. Sier is unproven but cheaper; underpriced if he can continue to score in the 90s

Depends where you’re up to upgrade wise. If you’re close to completing your team, the points on field are more important than extra $50k you could eek out of him and Gawn will definitely outscore him. ROBs run coming up isn’t great (against Stanley (Gee) in Rd 15, Lycett (Port) Rd 16 and Witts (GC) Rd 17) even with his low 49 BE, I’d take the points from Gawn and smash this bye rd if I were you

If you still have other upgrades to do, 3 or 4 more maybe? In that case yeah, maybe you could hold a little longer. Gawn might go up in cash as much as O’Brien though, his BE is only 93 and he’s Calvin’s #1 Captain choice this week

Definitely Option 1, enjoy the triple mega-upgrade. First, you get the extra points on field this week. Second, option 2 probably involves upgrading someone to Gaff next week (?) and that could be affected by any injuries you cop this week. Take out the risk and get your cash on the field!