NFL Draft: The first round meets the recruiting ‘star’ system, with interesting results

In the Hotline’s never-ending quest to lend context to the recruiting process, here are the first-round picks and the number of recruiting ‘stars’ that were assigned to each. (I’m using Scout’s rankings but could just have easily have selected Rivals.)

I’m not suggesting, and never have, that the star system is irrelevant. It provides a broad indication of potential: A 5-star player is more likely to become a first round pick than a 3-star player.

The point here, and always, is that the stars aren’t everything — just as the RPI in the college basketball selection process isn’t everything and the 40-yard dash in the draft evaluation process isn’t everything.

The system’s accuracy as a predictor of future success, either for the players or the teams, doesn’t match the be-all-and-end-all attention it receives on National Signing Day.

You’ll note below that there were more 2-star prospects selected Thursday than 5-star prospects.

Jon Wilner

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I’m not surprised that there are more two-star recruits drafted than 5-stars. How many 5-star recruits are there each year? 50? How many two-stars are there? Thousands upon thousands. Using rough calculations, this means that ~10% of the 5-stars were drafted in the first round while ~.001% of the 2-stars were drafted. This suggests that 5-stars are much, much more likely to develop into draft picks. The numbers you post are actually a testament to the current star system.

I understand that the recruiting rankings aren’t perfect, but this is like saying the SAT (another heavily criticized tool for evaluating high schoolers) is lousy because Berkeley has more incoming students who scored 1200 than it does students who scored a perfect 1600.

Cardinal Rule

Is the star rating system based on performance at a particular position? If so, I’m not sure this comparison (before and after) is relevant in all cases. For example, didn’t Anthony Barr garner his 4 stars as a running back, but he was drafted as an outside linebacker.

Candid One

Amen, UCB gets its world-class ranking for its full range of degree products, BA/BS-Ph.D. NFL history is rampant with late round picks who make it to All-Pro and HOF stature. Potential isn’t prologue. Draft hype isn’t NFL production or achievement.

casey_mullins

2.5 star Cal safety Damariay Drew allegedly breaks dog walker’s jaw and kicks dog. Will he claim he was was dissed for not having more stars? or for being part of the em-Bear-assing defense?