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This morning I was woken up by a text from a friend saying, “WAKE UP THERE IS POLITICS HAPPENING”. I’m 5 hours behind in New York so wasn’t awake for May’s announcement of an early election.

Further texts followed from very senior Labour officials with increasing levels of worry with one simply saying “disaster”.

My first thought was just what serious trouble the Labour Party is in.

But this runs far deeper than Jeremy Corbyn and it’s idle to think that simply replacing Jeremy would achieve a better election result. The reality is that the Labour Party should be in third and they would be if it weren’t for Tim Faron’s ineffectiveness.

There are two major problems for the Labour Party.

Problem 1

In many of the world’s wealthiest countries, automation and technologisation has dramatically reduced the amount of manufacturing jobs. The UK is one of the worst countries for this and skilled jobs have gradually been disappearing over the years, despite the fact we produce more goods than we ever have before.

What this means is that when this happens in cities people are forced into insecure low paid work, to use an app like uber that reduces wages for workers but prices for consumers or to live on benefits.

When this happens outside of cities your options are limited by poor public transport. In Hemsworth for example many people are forced to work at the ASOS delivery depot for a low wage that delivers goods to people in cities.

What this creates is resentment and affects the view of people on immigration. Many people felt left behind by New Labour in the 2000s. These people are long lost to Labour and increasingly voted UKIP but have recently been won round the Tory Party.

This is a good example on Twitter today.

Message from an ex-Labour voter, who went UKIP last time and now finds himself going Tory - I wonder how many others there are like this? pic.twitter.com/DwPSfaLn3U

The Labour Party has to win back its working class base of support but it’s important to note that these people were long lost to Labour. They didn’t vote for Gordon Brown and they didn’t vote for Ed Miliband, but flirted with the idea and ultimately decided against it. Jeremy hasn’t lost these voters.

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Problem 2

Liberals. People like me who benefit and believe in a globalised society. As Dr Kevin Cunningham pointed out on Twitter, Jeremy Corbyn’s problem is actually his position on the EU.

Doesn't look like Corbyn as a leader did much damage, rather his and the party's stance on Brexit since the referendum which is leading to.. pic.twitter.com/QsrbWIfgj6

If you look at the opinion polls and results like Copeland Labour has lost a lot of votes to the Lib Dems, some to the Tories and the Tories have gained a huge amount of voters from UKIP.

If the Copeland result was replicated due to the collapse in Labour vote from Labour to Lib Dems and the switch from UKIP to Tories, Labour will get annihilated.

Labour’s position in 2015 was 30% despite losing votes to the SNP and UKIP (meaning we gained some voters from the Tories and a lot of votes from the Lib Dems). The Tory base position was 36%.

The reality for Labour is that a huge amount of support base is made up of pro-europe liberals. Most opinion polls show around 65% of Labour voters, voted to stay in the EU.

The latest opinion polls don’t bare thinking about if you are a Labour supporter, but they show that UKIP is down and Lib Dems are up from 2015.

I believe there has been a similar effect to the Scottish Independence referendum that squeezed Labour out. People associated their party vote with their referendum vote.

A similar thing has happened to the Labour Party. This election is an election the Lib Dems could wipe the floor with Labour.

Many people like John Curtice have pointed out what a danger to Labour the Lib Dems are. Many in Labour talk about the threat from UKIP but the real enemy is the Lib Dems.

As Curtice says, Labour "seems to have forgotten (or not realised) that most of those who voted Labour in 2015 – including those living in Labour seats in the North and the Midlands – backed remain. The party is thus at greater risk of losing votes to the pro-remain Liberal Democrats than to pro-Brexit Ukip".

If I was Jeremy Corbyn first of all I would point out that the Tories took us into a Brexit on the basis of a lie, whilst they’ve presided over the biggest collapse in public services in our history. Labour absolutely has to have some sort of pro EU position to appeal to its’ liberal base.

It also needs to promise to reskill the workforce, huge infrastructure spending and creating quality jobs to win back the voters it lost in the Blair years.

However Jeremy does it, he needs to deal with problems 1 and 2 and will lose very badly if he doesn’t. Whoever is leader needs to deal with this problem.

I am currently writing a series of very detailed articles in area that will be published as a series in the coming months.

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Hi Mike
Yes, I noticed the latest poll results, but it doesn’t ‘prove’ anything about the cause. You are hypothesising, nothing wrong with that, but that is all it is. I’m sure there is nothing Theresa May would like better than a contest between the Lib Dems and Labour over who can be the most Europhilic, that would keep them both busy and stop them from debating the real issues where she is vulnerable. She wants this to be all about Europe, and Jeremy has decided to completely ignore your advice and focus on the fact that this is a General Election – not a second referendum on Europe. The thing is, he has one unique selling point – his views and track record are well known, and his supporters trust him to deliver what he says he will. It would be utterly pointless for the man whose Eurosceptic views are well-known to start courting the remain vote. All but the most hard-line remainers can see that his version of Brexit is preferable to what the Tories are offering, and I don’t see any evidence of an appetite for a second referendum on Europe when it comes down to it. I notice people seem to be assuming poll % points will translate seamlessly into seat wins and nobody will vote tactically. I’d like to see a bit more discussion on that.

Mike Joslin, WriteYou commented
2017-04-20 13:46:27 +0100

Hi Shoada and Paula. This site is non-partisan. We have run many articles from Jeremy and will run more during the election.

You will no doubt have seen last night’s YouGov Poll that showed the Tories on 48% yet Labour is up 1 point to 26%. This shows what I am saying is right. UKIP has collapsed and the vote solidified around the Tories. The only way for Labour to win is to make a pitch to these voters and to have a pro EU position.

Shoada Patrick commented
2017-04-20 03:20:27 +0100

I’m talking to the most marginalised on a daily basis…I’m hearing their anger and frustrations at being ignored and demonized…JC speaks to them…JC speaks to me…You Sir, can continue forging your career out of the ‘false politics’ of neoliberal capitalism…We have a movement to further, a greater fairer world to create…

Paula I commented
2017-04-19 23:29:19 +0100

Hi Mike, couching the article in terms of ‘friendly advice’ does not make it supportive – you are still effectively reinforcing the usual biased reporting which constantly attacks Corbyn, whether you mean to or not. For example, you put up a chart of labour’s polling during the EU referendum and completely fail to mention the second coup attempt and labour leadership election that followed it.

The messages you suggest Corbyn gives out are messages I have already heard him and his team repeating many times over, and quite eloquently, which makes me wonder why you are ‘advising’ him to do what he is already doing and giving him no credit for his efforts thus far to address the issues you raise.

Also, if you are genuinely non-partisan, and looking to promote debate, why are you concerned whether people think you are opposing Jeremy or not? Maybe you have to decide if you are a commentator or a participant….

Mike Joslin, WriteYou commented
2017-04-19 13:30:32 +0100

Hi Shoda and Anne. This hasn’t got anything to do with the mainstream media and you seem to think I am opposing Jeremy Corbyn, which I stated in the article I’m not. I’m advising Jeremy on what I think he needs to do to win the election. I am an elections expert with significant experience. Can you point me to the evidence that suggest Labour has won back UKIP/Tory voters that left us?

The same thing has happened in America. Barack Obama polled ahead of the Democrats because he did what I said above which is create a message of infrastructure and skills invest for the poor and one of a globalised world for the liberal voters.

How do you suggest Jeremy wins back the voters we’ve lost?

Anne Tanner commented
2017-04-19 13:11:59 +0100

I was about to reply then I realised that shoada Patrick has said it all below. He is right you are wrong.
In mitigation the MSM has created an image for Jeremy that is. based on lies.

A large number of the Tories (Cameron was a good example) are trained in "Public Relations aka PR. This is fundamentally the art of lying plausibly.

Actually of course the intensity of the attacks on JC tells us they are terrified that he despite their efforts he might actually win!
We have to get the message out we need all these new members to get out their and deliver a policy document explaining what we will do, using the methods used by the MSM.
Tell people they are being lied to, tell them who is responsible for the poverty so many are suffering, tell them about the systematic defunding of the NHS.

Fight lies with truth!

Wendy Worthington commented
2017-04-19 08:22:44 +0100

I, myself, am scratching my head as to why Jeremy Corbyn hasn’t been shouting loudly about the Brexit lie and public service collapse under the Tories. It should be one of his main arguments as to why we should fire them. He has so much ammunition to use against the Tories but he seems to be quiet about it. It is almost a state of Civil war and we need a leading voice which will reach those who are not really sure which way to vote, but, due to the fact that most of our press are Tory, or at the very least, anti-Corbyn, they don’t really know what is happening.

shoada patrick commented
2017-04-19 06:39:06 +0100

This is mostly rubbish …Mostly gleaned from you-gov polls or such like…and a biased MSM…The majority of Labour’s lost ‘working class’ voters have come back and are relishing the fight of our generation…Two tweets do not make even the start of a credible argument from either point…JC Labour recognises your assertions about manufacturing jobs, has done so for a while…He is about getting away from the zero hour contract culture that has become so prevalent…He is about securing better quality jobs in the care sector in the NHS in a new growing education service …He is about creating better nationalised services where possible increasing the workforce where he can and having those jobs better protected…He is about creating more small businesses through his National Investment Banks…He is about recognising home workers/ carers and the unemployed and getting them involved in lifelong learning and viable 2nd career options…He is about recognising and establishing people’s worth and the contributions each and everyone can make…Re Brexit…Who would you rather have handling the process…I mean really? Someone committed to fairer trade options and securing workers rights or not??…Come with better points…You are trapped by your white neoliberal shoes trodding a path to a truly pathetic withered world view…And we will fight you every step of your way!!! JC is the only Leader who can turn this horror story into a thrilling and feel good/do good crowd pleaser! Your thinking has led us here…We’ll take it from here!