Sunday, January 15, 2017

The Reversals give us the signal and objectives

Understanding Global Market Watch

Posted Jan 14, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Good afternoon,

I have a quick question regarding the GLOBAL MARKET WATCH. Are the results updated only at the end of each time period (day, week, month, quarter or year) or are they updated constantly throughout the time period?

For example: I have noticed that the monthly trend on gold started January with a bearish comment and now it suddenly changed to “rally under way”. Or does this mean that since January 12, 2107 the tone will be bullish (rally under way) for the next 30 days until February 12, 2017? Thank you in advance for your help in understanding how the Global Market Watch works.

ANSWER: The Daily is based upon the end of each session. The Weekly to Yearly are progressive or dynamic. In other words, the comment it comes up with is based upon the data up to that point as if that level closed that instant. So a monthly will change as the month unfolds and as the month closes it is then fixed. So if gold closed that day, then the final comment for January would be as it appears. The “tone” would be bullish going into the next presumed “month” at that instant, which would begin the very next day. It does not indicate that it will be up for 30 days. Each is still forecast just the one day.

Keep in mind this can change and you can make a high and suddenly it will then say it is a knee jerk (1 unit wonder), reaction, temp high, or major high. In this case, gold elected a Monthly Bullish at the end of December so this signaled we should see a bounce up to the Reversals, particularly since it held above the 2015 closing for 2016.

1. The Reversals give us the signal and objectives,

2. technical analysis provides objectives,

3. and the cycle arrays provide the time.

The GMW is purely pattern recognition. Using a combination of methods, on all markets globally, we get to see the world as it unfolds. Forecasting just cannot be done focusing on a single market. You must see the whole as everything is interconnected. What this demonstrates above all is simply there is no such thing as randomness.