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I thought this was pretty funny. I think it strikes the right mix of "they are overachieving" and "damn it's fun". I thought this quote was especially good.

But the Orioles aren't concerned about long-term sustainability, because they're just trying to win however they can win right now, every day. And even when you're aware of the unsustainability it can still feel like the Orioles are being powered by magic. Somehow this is a more satisfying explanation than statistical randomness

Jones homered to turn 1-1 into 3-1, and just to drive the point home, a few pitches later Jesus Montero caught a low curveball in the throat. The Orioles had nothing to do with it; it was a Mariner who threw the curveball, so it was a Mariner who hurt his own teammate's neck. The Orioles have a way of making other teams feel like they're beating themselves. It makes a hell of a lot more sense than having been beaten by the Orioles. If you can't tell I'm having trouble figuring out how this is our reality. The Orioles aren't magic, because there isn't magic. The Orioles might be the closest thing to magic that exists, aside from seedless watermelon on a hot day, and sour beer.

I realize Safeco's a tough place to hit in, especially this year, but the bottom of the 10th was disgraceful. You get a rare runner on base when Saunders walk to lead it off and then Wedge tries to bunt with Miguel Olivo so that he can have Casper Wells and his .221 average (or his pinch-hitter Trayvon Robinson with his .218 average) and Brendan Ryan and his .191 average (or his pinch-hitter Mike Carp with his .216 average) average single him in?

It seems like a single from any of those four people is somewhat unlikely which is why I'm citing the averages. Olivo hasn't hit for average either, but at least he has enough pop to possibly hit one into the gaps and score Saunders from first.

It's been annoying to watch as a Yankee fan, but good for the Orioles. It's been a hell of a run, regardless of how it ends.

I realize Safeco's a tough place to hit in, especially this year, but the bottom of the 10th was disgraceful. You get a rare runner on base when Saunders walk to lead it off and then Wedge tries to bunt with Miguel Olivo so that he can have Casper Wells and his .221 average (or his pinch-hitter Trayvon Robinson with his .218 average) and Brendan Ryan and his .191 average (or his pinch-hitter Mike Carp with his .216 average) average single him in?

I don't hate that call. Olivo is a pretty good DP candidate and the bunt then pray for a bloop single somewhere plan doesn't sound like the worst option in the world. I don't have that much confident that Olivo is more likely to plug a gap than Robinson or Ryan is going to break his bat and flare one to right-center.

If you're going to play for one run there, I usually think it's a good idea to steal, then sacrifice. That way you can get the run in a bunch of different ways, plus the infield is usually going to play in (or they're going to walk two guys). Saunders is a good base-stealer and the numbers have to be in favor of doing that.

If you're going to play for one run there, I usually think it's a good idea to steal, then sacrifice. That way you can get the run in a bunch of different ways, plus the infield is usually going to play in (or they're going to walk two guys). Saunders is a good base-stealer and the numbers have to be in favor of doing that.

I see the logic in this. In this game though, the Mariners tried a steal with Saunders, in the bottom 11th, 2 out, representing the tieing run. He was thrown out to end the game.

a few pitches later Jesus Montero caught a low curveball in the throat.

I was at the game. By that time, the stadium was pretty empty so I'd moved down to the 10th row behind the Mariners' dugout. There was a drunk idiot a section over with his buddy- the kind of drunk idiot who is old enough that he should no better, or at least have someone at home telling him what a drunk idiot he is. When Montero was laying motionless on the ground in what was briefly a scary situation, the guy started yelling "Hurry up! Let's go!" It was the closest I have ever come to punching someone at a baseball game.

Saunders is a good base-stealer

True, but he also ended the game on that defensive difference play.

Agree. On paper and on the field, they look like a terrible team, but the record says they're just ordinarily bad. Especially odd considering how tough the division is.

The Mariners have an inordinate number of players with 12-18 homeruns.

GM: So, the Orioles won. We didn’t. What can we learn?
Assistant: Well-
GM: First and foremost, we’ve focused too much on adding as much talent as possible.
GM: What we need is a roster that isn’t actually very good at all.
GM: I mean, we don’t want a bad roster.
GM: Nobody wants a bad roster.
GM: We just need to find the right mix so the team as a whole can overachieve.
Assistant: Your plan is to build a team that you hope will overachieve.
GM: The Orioles bottled lightning!
GM: We need to bottle lightning.
Assistant: This doesn’t-
GM: I’m going to need you to go get some bottles.
Assistant: Nobody actually bottles lightning.

I read this with the GM sounding like the Seinfeld Steinbrenner and the Assistant sounding like Mr. Smithers.

The 2012 Safeco park factor is .68 for runs according to ESPN, 30th in the major leagues. It's less than .58 for home runs. Things will probably normalize a bit next year, and we'll all be wondering where Ackey, Saunders et al came from. (all the OPS+ based on three year park factors won't capture the extremity of this year's anomaly)

And anyone who's seen him play out there on a daily basis would affirm that, yes, Ryan's glovework is indeed at the Ozzie Smith level right now. He's superb. Nearly Adam Everett (still my gold standard) level.

And anyone who's seen him play out there on a daily basis would affirm that, yes, Ryan's glovework is indeed at the Ozzie Smith level right now. He's superb. Nearly Adam Everett (still my gold standard) level.

OK. Have you seen that confirmed by professional scouts?

The 2012 Safeco park factor is .68 for runs according to ESPN, 30th in the major leagues. It's less than .58 for home runs. Things will probably normalize a bit next year, and we'll all be wondering where Ackey, Saunders et al came from. (all the OPS+ based on three year park factors won't capture the extremity of this year's anomaly)

I'm sorry, there's no way the true park factor for Safeco is 0.68 this year. That's just a fluke.

Seattle opponents' hitting has been insanely bad as well, which isn't all about Vargas' lucky mound. Washington's been colder that the rest of the country and the wind has been blowing in. It's flukish and it's not provably .68, but the field has played substantially worse than .90. I remember one year when I was a kid, Fenway played as a pitcher's park for weather-related reasons, though it was normally the biggest hitter's park in the league. Strange things happen.

There's probably some flukiness to the Safeco park factor, but it's been a cooler than average summer in Seattle (which is already pretty mild in the summer), while it's been a hotter than average summer almost everywhere else. It's been particularly tough weather for hitting in a park that was already difficult for hitters.

I'm sorry, there's no way the true park factor for Safeco is 0.68 this year. That's just a fluke.

If memory serves, ESPN's park factors are home-park only, and B-R's are half home park, half road parks. A 68 home-only park factor works out to roughly an 85 overall, which is still quite extreme, but not utterly unreasonable.

Tonight they won in 11 innings after starting Joe Saunders against Felix Hernandez, after scoring a runner from first on a single, after walking three Mariners in the bottom of the tenth. An errant pickoff throw that would've put a Mariners runner in scoring position bounced off the Mariners' first-base coach and kept the runner on first

Those who have stuck with the team really deserve it. I went to several games at Camden Yards over the last few years, both Red Sox games and others. O's fans were stuck in a tough spot - they either go to the game, and get bombarded with opposing fans, or they don't go to the game, which is how the crowd gets overwhelmed with the opposing fans in the first place. I would happily have been one of the few people rooting against the O's when the Sox where in town, and rooted with a big crowd for the O's when they weren't.

From what I can tell: scouts like his defense a lot (GG candidate level) - but never as much as the stats have (where he's just short of Ozzie/Everett territory year after year, with two different franchises).