After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Batters
The Brewers entered the 2017 campaign, in theory, as a rebuilding club. Between 2015 and -16, the organization had traded Khris Davis, Mike Fiers, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, all of whom had served as regulars for the team. In their place emerged a collection largely of unproven, if promising, talent — but not one, it seemed, designed to compete in a division that also featured the defending world champions.

What happened instead is Milwaukee led the NL Central into late July and missed a Wild Card slot by a mere game. The club’s position players ranked 17th in the league by WAR, which seemed improbable after the exodus of talent.

The successful 2017 team, however, doesn’t necessarily represent a baseline for the 2018 one. While one might expect the projections for the next iteration of the Brewers to reflect a club prepared to take another leap forward, that’s not what one finds here. Only two players, Domingo Santana (566 PA, 2.3 zWAR) and Travis Shaw (573, 2.7), are forecast by Dan Szymborski’s computer to transcend the two-win threshold. Meanwhile, both of the club’s starting middle infielders, Orlando Arcia (599, 1.4) and Jonathan Villar (526, 1.0), profile as something more like useful part-time players than first-division regulars.

Pitchers
Even more than the hitters, it was the team’s pitching staff that facilitated the Brewers’ surprising campaign. Projected for roughly two wins entering the season, right-hander Jimmy Nelson (170.2 IP, 3.5 zWAR) more than doubled that mark. He receives the top projection among the club’s starters (although is omitted from the depth-chart image below after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2017 season).

In Nelson’s absence, Zach Davies (189.0, 3.4) represents the ace of the staff, while Chase Anderson (135.1, 1.9) and Brandon Woodruff (121.0, 1.9) appear likely to serve as solid mid-rotation options. After that foursome, there’s less in the way of certainty. Jeff Sullivan sees some promise in newcomer and back-end starter Jhoulys Chacin (143.1, 1.2). Dan Szymborski’s model sees less promise.

Bench/Prospects
The earliest returns for Lewis Brinson (439 PA, 1.6 zWAR) at the major-league level weren’t particularly great. The young outfielder’s minor-league professional resume is strong, however. Unsurprisingly, he earns the top projection of those field players unlikely to break camp as a starter with the team. Hernan Perez (474, 1.4) returns as a useful multi-positional bench player, while prospects Mauricio Dubon (574, 0.9) and Monte Harrison (493, 0.9) profile as something better than replacement level right now.

Right-hander Corbin Burnes (130.0, 1.6) has recorded zero appearances above Double-A. Nevertheless, ZiPS calls for him to produce wins at something like a league-average rate. By the numbers, at least, he appears to be a legitimate candidate for the rotation. Brent Suter (118.1, 1.4), meanwhile, likely wouldn’t appear in a rotation that also included a healthy Jimmy Nelson. Nevertheless, he was the fourth-best starter for a decent club last year. He also profiles as a league-average type on a per-inning basis.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Brewers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to enlarge image.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.24 ERA and the NL having a 4.18 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

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I like to think Szym bakes in a zWAR penalty for Braun for being a crappy human being.

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11 months ago

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drewsylvania

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I see Brewers homers.

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CCSAGE

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Can some Brewers homers tell me what you think about Santana? He seams to have a wide variety of outcomes probably due to K% but he also takes his walks. A little beyond-the-boxscore analysis would be appreciated.

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11 months ago

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sadtrombone

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When he came up he was hilarious to watch. He’d swing at pitches he shouldn’t but take pitches right down the middle. And his routes to the ball in the outfield were “creative”. He’s gotten better on all counts but still a work in progress. He’s a beast physically so it works, and still some upside there but don’t hold your breath.