Archive for the ‘wirkin estevez’ tag

Voth has completely remade his career in less than a month. Photo mlb.com official

I havn’t been doing regular check-ins with the minor league staffs for a few years, but I have always maintained little “cheat sheet” notes on the staffs of the levels day in/day out (thanks in no small part to the daily work of Luke Erickson over at Nationals Prospects of course).

It occurred to me, doing updates this week, that the four full season rotations have been about as stable as I can ever remember them this year. So I thought i’d do a quick swing through the four staffs, with quick notes on who has looked good or bad and what we may see in terms of movement going forward.

Rotation thoughts: A month in and the only change we’ve seen to the AAA rotation was the flipping of Milone and Voth thanks to Voth’s brief call-up earlier this week. Voth has absolutely re-made his career so far this year, going from possible “first man to be DFA’d” off the 40-man to a guy who is forcing his way into the conversation the next time the Nats need a starter. For May he’s posted a 0.76 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, has a 30/3 K/BB ratio in 23 innings and has given up just 13 hits. Man, is he found gold for a team who has traded away an awful lot of pitching prospects over the past couple of seasons?

The veteran insurance policies Jackson and Milone are both pitching about as I’d expect them to be: Milone slightly better, with better base-runner control, Jackson with more wildness and worse stats. Erick Fedde has not been either good or bad, giving up a hit an inning and maintaining a 4-1 K-BB ratio but not showing any real dominance. My guess is that he’ll be sticking in AAA for a while.

The last guy in the rotation may be the most interesting: Cesar Vargas was a low-key spring MLFA signing after bouncing around San Diego’s system last year. He’s come out in 2018 looking serviceable and might be putting himself ahead of the veterans in the pecking order.

Bullpen thoughts: John Simms has looked great in a long-man role. He’s quietly been serviceable at every level in his journey upwards and you have to wonder if he’ll eventually push for a 9/1 call up. Most of the rest of the bullpen is too SSS to make real judgements, though we have seen three relievers get pushed to the majors right now (Torres, Gott, Suero) and fourth who was up and is now in AAA (Adams). Cordero still shows the same issues that have plagued him for a while; he’s got 16/8 K/BB in 11 innings. Barrett remains with the system and we hope he can get back to his former self; he’d certainly help out at the MLB level.

Rotation thoughts: The only substantive change in the rotation from the first pass through was to replace Darnell with Long. Dragmire and Jefry Rodriguez have both excelled thus far, though Rodriguez’s stats look more like a guy who might be pressing for promotion (more Ks, fewer hits). Dragmire is showing more of what he displayed last year at AA and he may need the additional challenge of AAA soon. Estevez and Reyes are not faring as well thus far, with elevated ERAs and WHIPs. And Long, upon his demotion from AAA, has been poor in his three AA starts, with just 6 punch-outs and a 1.85 WHIP in 13 innings. Rodriguez seems like the first starter in line for promotion.

Bullpen thoughts: Austen Williams has looked great since getting moved out of the rotation. Kaleb Fleck has some interesting stats: he’s got an 18/1 K/BB ratio in 10 innings but has an ugly 5.91 ERA (I’m sure his FIP is like 3 points lower). Fleck is too good for AA; he spent all last year in AAA and isn’t proving anything here. Bryan Harper‘s return from injury is going ok .. he’s got nearly a 2.00 WHIP though. Long serving Nats farmhand Dakota Bacus got shelled in four appearances and currently sits on the D/L; he had excellent numbers in 2017 but is getting a bit long in the tooth for AA and I wonder if he’s running out of time. One big name still sits in XST: Nick Lee, who looked promising before injuries derailed his progress.

Rotation thoughts: The only change to the opening day rotation literally happened yesterday, with Mapes dropping to the D/L and (likely) McGowin (freshly taken off the AA D/L and demoted to Potomac) likely to take his place. Mapes has the best starter ERA … but the worst WHIP. Crownover may have the nicest looking stat line, with a nifty 28/4 K/BB ratio and solid peripherals. Perhaps the most important high-A arm may be Wil Crowe and so far he’s more than handling high-A; the 2017 2nd rounder has a great whip, good ratios and is looking like an excellent draft pick. Baez and Sharp fill out the rest of the rotation; both showing mid 4 ERAs and not really being good enough or bad enough to comment on thus far. The one big notable missing name here is Seth Romero, who should be featuring in this rotation as we speak but instead apparently still sits not at XST but at home in Houston. Its hard to prove the “i told you so” guys wrong when it literally took less than a season for his well-publicized maturity issues to come to the forefront.

Bullpen thoughts: Some good and some bad in the bullpen; Rivera and Howard have gotten dinged so far, while Bourque, Mills and Pantoja look solid. Bourque in particular now boasts a 22/4 K/BB ratio in 12 relief innings; like that ratio. 36th rounder Klobosits still looking solid; how exactly was he still around that late in the draft if he’s already succeeding in high-A?

Rotation thoughts: It was clear to this observer that the first few turns through the rotation were in the “tandem starter” configuration, with each of the names in the “opening rotation” throwing roughly 3-4 innings each. That has now settled into the current 6-man rotation, all of which now seem to be getting the lion’s share of the innings each time through. Of the “starters,” only really Raquet has acquitted himself well, though i’m concerned about the lack of swing and miss in his game (19/8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings supporting a 2.28 ERA and a 1.05 whip). The rest of the starters are struggling: Stoeckinger hasn’t walked a soul yet in 24 innings … .but has given up 37 hits for an ugly 7.50 ERA. Tetreault, Alastre and Acevedo each have ERAs north of 7.00. Troop and Hill (both 2017 top-10 round draftees) have been less bad but have room for improvement.

The “tandem” starters have been a different story though. Bogucki and Braymer each have been solid, with Braymer sporting a 23/2 K/BB ratio and a 0.81 WHIP and Bogucki sporting a 20/3 K/BB ratio. I wonder how long it’ll be before these guys become the “starters” instead of the “finishers.”

Bullpen thoughts: There’s really only a couple of real “relievers” in Low-A, but one of them has been quite solid. McKinney has a 14/1 K/BB ratio in just 8 2/3 innings and has yet to give up an earned run.

There’s still a slew of guys technically in “XST” or assigned to the Short-A roster who could fill in here, most of whom have prior Low-A experience and could contribute.

Who is making a push for promotion? Braymer, Bogucki, McKinney

Who is in jeopardy of a demotion (or worse): Acevedo, Alastre

That’s a quick run through the systems. Did anyone want to point out someone in particular who they think needs to be talked about?

Interesting news on 1/11/18: Edwin Jackson has re-signed a split minor league deal with decent compensation if he makes the major league team ($1.5M plus another $1.4M in incentives).

Lots of rumors about the team eventually buying a more established 5th starter, either on the open market or in trade. There’s too many names still out there to even begin to discuss, from marquee 8-figure free agents (Yu Darvish) to Nats-favorite Scott Boras clients he’s likely to go over Rizzo’s head about (Jake Arrieta) to trade candidates from rebuilding teams (Tampa, Miami, Pittsburgh and their valuable arms like Gerrit Cole, ChrisArcher, though inbetween the time I started this post and published it, Cole had already been traded to the keep-getting-richer Astros).Bur for now, we don’t have any of these guys … so we’re still projected for a fun spring training competition.

So, what does the #5 starter competition look like right now? Basically there’s four primary candidates now in-house and signed for 2018. Lets rank them in likely order of winning the job:

#1: A.J. Cole

I think right now Cole has the inside track, even given the Milone and Jackson signings. Cole’s 2018 numbers were decent at the MLB level: 3-5 with a 3.81 ERA even if his periperhals were bad (5.88 fip, 1.50 whip). His AAA numbers in 2017 were awful (5.88 ERA in 18 starts), but then again the entire Syracuse rotation was awful in 2018. But, he did show some promise last year and he’s out of options, so I can’t help but think that he’ll get a shot to stick on the MLB roster until he proves he’s either staying or going one last time.

#2 : Edwin Jackson:

He made an ok case for the job based on what he was able to do last year. No, he wasn’t awesome: in 13 starts he was 5-6 with a 5.07 ERA and even worse peripherals (5.88 FIP, 1.4 whip). That’s about what he did for San Diego in 2016, so It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. But he’s a known quantity, he throws hard, he never gets hurt. He also clearly will work in the minors to get another shot at the majors and didn’t sign back up with this team on a whim, so odds are he could get stashed in Syracuse for a bit and wait out his chance.

#3 Tommy Milone: the prodigal son returns to the fold. Initially sent away in the Gio Gonzalez trade 7 years ago, he pitched well for both Oakland and Minnesota before falling off a cliff in 2016. His 2017 was not pretty: a combined 7.63 ERA for two different teams. He also signed a minor league deal that I suspect may have an opt-out if he fails to make the team. Hopefully not; he did log some AAA time in the last two seasons and may also opt to stick around. Is it possible he returns to his career form (a 4.37 ERA and a 91 ERA+ figure)? Maybe; he’d have to do a lot better though to make his case for t he 5th starter.

#4: Erick Fedde; our top starting pitcher prospect and sole arm in AAA or AA (or perhaps even high-A at this point) which represents a significant draft investment (outside of Mariano Rivera Jr that is … who is already a reliever). And he did not look ready in his debut last fall. 3 starts. 9.39 ERA … even if two of those starts were against tough competition (home to Colorado, then away vs the Cubs). Short Sample Size, yadda-yadda, he got knocked around. He needs more AAA time and you’d have to think he’s starting the year either in XST (if its too cold in Syracuse) or in upstate NY.

So, what about our minor league depth past these four guys? Honestly: there’s not a ton of depth we can count on in AAA or AA. The 40-man names are Fedde, Cole, Voth and Jefry Rodriguez. That’s it.

Here’s a quick glance at our other minor league starters out there who are more likely to be AA or AAA fodder (in rough order of their consideration for the job/likely 2018 assignments)

AAA projected rotation (over-top of those four names above who miss out and who don’t opt out, that is):

Jared Long (he may or may not be a MLFA still; rosterresource.com shows him on the Nats roster but milb.com shows him as a FA): if he’s still with us, he showed two years running he was better than AA. I’d like to see him with a long run in AAA to see if he’s a viable candidate to move up.

John Simms: this home grown product (2013 11th round draftee) has earned promotion after promotion and should start 2018 in AAA. He doesn’t have shutdown stuff, but could be a sneaky candidate for spot starts.

Logan Darnell; this 2018 MLFA signing from Tampa had good AAA success several years running for other organizations and seems like a clear AAA arm eater for now. Can he be more?

Austin Voth; two years ago looked like he could be the next Tanner Roark, but a brutal 2017 season got him demoted to AA. He posted a 3.15 ERA in AAA in 2016; can he get back there? If not, then he’s in clear danger of being first man off the 40-man roster if a spot is needed.

Greg Ross: as with Voth, the Greg Ross train got derailed in upstate New York in 2017, also earning him a demotion. He re-signed though for 2018 to give it another shot and might start in AAA given past success in AA.

Note: at least one of these names likely gets pushed down, especially since Fedde likely isn’t winning the 5th starter job. Jackson and Milone as veterans may have opt-outs and are not likely to stick around, but you never know. And if Cole doesn’t make the team, he’s passing through waivers before he gets to AAA and may not make it. So the AAA rotation will be in flux right up until 4/1/18.

Wirkin Estevez had good AA numbers in 2017 (3.63 ERA in 11 starts after promotion from high-A) and re-signed a ML deal to stay with the organization. He’s probably first AA starter for a need-based promotion.

Tyler Mapes missed all of 2017 after a very solid AA 2016 season; if he’s healthy, he starts here looking to repeat his 2016 performance before getting moved up.

Kyle McGowin; our trade bounty for Danny Espinosa has shown two years running his inability to succeed in AAA. He likely starts in AA again in 2018 given the log-jam in Syracuse.

Matt Crownover had a 4.50 ERA in a full AA season; nothing to really prove he needs to move up (especially given his weak K/9 rates), so likely starts in AA again looking for a mid-season promotion.

Jefry Rodriguez: the newest member of the 40-man roster, Rodriguez will hope to harness his high-A success from last year at the next step up.

Nobody in AA right now who looks like he could help immediately; Rodriguez though may get some spot-start/double header duty since he’s on the 40-man and doesn’t require a corresponding move.

So; are you satisfied with a ST 2018 competition or do you think we need to spend money or prospects on another arm?

Keep in mind; the division is a mess, with Atlanta not really trying, Miami actively getting worse and Philadelphia making curious moves. Only the Mets will challenge, and their big move this off-season has been to sign Adrian Gonzalez . So we don’t need a $20M/year 5th starter. And there’s the luxury tax considerations that keep coming up.

We do this every year. We argue about it every year. This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links/summary of the first seven). Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance. Yet here we are talking about it again, because we’re some of the few people out there who obsess about the edges of the 40-man roster, and who have meticulously studied our prospects for years and who don’t necessarily want to see the promising ones head out the door for a pittance. So here we are.

Next Monday at 8pm is the deadline to set 40-man rosters ahead of the Winter Meetings, which include the Rule-5 draft. With so many teams purposely tanking there’s going to be lots of usage of the draft this year. Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions. I’ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 35 now, so there’s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. Also incredibly useful is Roster Resource’s Nats Roster, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.

The quick Rule-5 rules for 2017; any college-aged draftee from 2014 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2013 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.

Newly Eligible 2014 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Austen Williams: he has featured at High-A 3 years running, got moved to AA for the 2nd year running this year and still continues to struggle with that leap. I don’t think he’s a candidate to protect but is worth mentioning since he’s a long-serving starter in the organization. The team sent him to the AFL perhaps as an audition for consideration.

Tyler Mapes: the 30th round pick continues to be found gold for this team … but he missed the entire 2017 with an injury. Because of that he’s clearly not a rule-5 danger, but he could fit into the teams plans as a rotation member in AA or AAA this year. He has a career 2.68 ERA in the minors, vastly outperforming most of the rest of his draft class.

Taylor Gushue: the 2017 trade acquisition had a solid year in High-A, is a catcher in a system that needs them, and seems like a lock to add. He wasn’t set to the AFL for nothing.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Dale Carey, Matthew Page, Austin Davidson, Alec Keller, Robbie Dickey, Weston Davis, James Bourque. All these guys are still in the lower minors. Dickey represents the biggest investment ($400k signing bonus) and is one of the biggest disappointments from this draft.

Erick Fedde would have been the big name here to protect had he not already been added. Trea Turner was also a 2014 college draftee.

Drew Ward: he is literally the only 2013 HS draftee remaining in the system and is an interesting protection case. He had a great 2016 (making the All Star team and shining in High-A) but has not translated that success to AA. But, he’s only 22, and a 22-yr old struggling in AA isn’t that surprising. Question is; do you protect him? He’s blocked at the major league level by Anthony Rendon but that means little in a game where his value might be in trade versus production for the big league squad. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got protected.

Newly Eligible 2013 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Edwin Lora: SS who has progressed neatly one level at a time for 5 years. But he’s a career .238 hitter. We need a backup utility fielder and he fits the bill, but he doesn’t seem to be ready. I also don’t see him as a threat to get drafted.

Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B recently of the AFL who has shown some promise. He’s a lock to get protected based on his production and his presence in Arizona.

Luis Reyes, RHP who started 26 games for Potomac this year. He’s a bit wild, but he’s also a solid starter who projects to AA in 2018. Is that enough to be a draft threat? Maybe.

Anderson Franco, 3B: highly touted on prospect boards, but hit just .201 for low-A this year. Not a draft candidate but someone to watch/hope for a rebound 2018.

Not mentioned: many 2013 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Aldrem Corridor, Joshual Ramirez, Luis Vilorio, Oliver Ortiz, Francys Peguero. Honestly, I had not even heard of most of these guys and wouldn’t be surprised if I had their eligibility wrong. They’re mostly in the very low minors.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2013 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2012 and prior HS/IFAs.

Wander Suero: the 2010 IFA exploded onto the scene this year as the closer in AA and then AAA, posting a 1.79 ERA for the year and heading to the AFL. He was already added to the roster two weeks ago.

John Simms: I’ve always liked this guy; he’s now worked his way to AAA and made 8 starts there last year. He isn’t a big K/9 guy, perhaps is seen as an org arm, but he’s got a good pedigree (Rice) and has made it to the cusp of the majors. Is that enough to protect him? Probably not.

Spencer Kieboom: he struggled enough in 2016 to get DFA’d in early 2017 … but then he hit pretty well in AAA this year. Is that enough to get him back into the mix?

Dakota Bacus: he pitched pretty darn well in relief across High-A and AA this year, and was sent to AFL to get more innings. Is he an option to add? He didn’t have the numbers that Suero did, but perhaps the team thinks he could be an option out of the pen.

Kyle McGowin: an interesting case since he was sent to the AFL: he struggled badly in 2017, getting demoted to AA at one point and posting a 5.95 ERA for the year. I don’t think we’d shed a tear if he was drafted, but I don’t think he’s meriting a 40-man spot right now.

Joan Baez; power arms don’t grow on trees, and even though he was “only” in high-A this year he’s well known enough to perhaps merit protection.

2013 or before College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include David Masters, Isaac Ballou, Justin Thomas, Matthew DeRosier, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Brian Rauh, Ronald Pena, Robert Orlan, Steven Perez, Bryan Mejia, Osvaldo Abreu, Wirkin Estevez, Hector Silvestre, Jefry Rodriguez. Perhaps at some points in their careers some of these guys seemed like locks, but for now they all toil in the lower minors (for the most part) hoping to put themselves into contention.

MLFAs who are technically Rule-5 eligible: Yadiel Hernandez, Irving Falou, Greg Ross, Jaron Long, Jordan Mills. Long in particular has worked in AAA for three years now, but may be considered an org arm at this point. Ross looked promising for a while, but struggled badly in 2017.

So, who would I protect?

Wander Suero (already added)

Kelvin Gutierrez

Taylor Gushue

Drew Ward

Joan Baez

Who would I consider: Kieboom, Bacus. Maybe.

If they added these four additional guys they’d be at 39/40 on the roster, still leaving them immediate room for a FA signing or trade. But there’s more than a few names on our 40-man currently that could be cut (starting with Voth, Gott, Bautista). So we could see some manouvering this off-season.

Did I miss anyone? this is kind of tough analysis without a massive white board with every name in the organization listed … something none of us have time to do for free.

As I mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I was away from computer all weekend so I missed the opportunity to comment on all the major things that went down.

So this is a clearing house of thoughts.

Joe Ross to undergo Tommy John; I don’t think anyone saw this coming, but then again nobody saw it coming with Stephen Strasburg either. With Stras it seemed to be a one-pitch injury. Ross’ pitch f/x data for his last start indicated that he was definitely off his typical velocity; compare his 90mph average on July 9th to his July 4th start, where he started routinely in the 93-94 range, before dropping off a cliff towards the end of his outing. If I had to guess, I’d guess he might have injured his arm somewhere in the 7th inning or so of his July 4th start and tried to give it a go the next outing before his teammate Max Scherzer spotted his distress. Ross finishes a struggle of a 2017 season where he got an amazing 10.55 runs per 27 outs of support; in 6 of his 13 starts the team scored more than 10 runs for him. He clearly had settled down from early season issues, throwing four consecutive quality starts and again looking like perhaps the best #5 starter in the league. Now he’s out until the all star break of next year at best, likely until September of 2018. He’s only 24, mind you, but this injury comes at a tough time for him; he’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time after the 2018 season, one in which he may only make a handful of starts. So this will cost Ross millions of dollars…. and will save the Nats at a time when they may be looking to save pennies for Bryce Harper.

Looking at the rotation for 2018; as we’ll soon find out (read on), there’s not a whole lotta help on the farm, so the Nats are probably shopping for starters this coming off-season, unless you guys think Erick Fedde will be ready for prime time next April.

In the meantime, it leads to a sticky situation in the near term yet again for this team. They traded away all their near-to-the-majors starting depth last off season, and have had to give starts already this season to three non-rotation guys (Jacob Turner, A.J. Cole and the ill-fated Jeremy Guthrie start early on). Well, now their starting depth in the minors is even weaker; A.J. Cole’s AAA era this year is a nifty 6.00 and the only other 40-man roster starter (Austin Voth) is even worse; he’s pitched to a 6.38 ERA in Syracuse this year and is either doing a rehab assignment or is being outright demoted to Harrisburg as we speak.

So instead of going with an internal option, the brain trust is enlisting the help of MLFA Edwin Jackson, who eternally owes Mike Rizzo a bottle of champagne for NOT offering him a qualifying offer when he became a FA after his run-of-the-mill 2012 season for us. The lack of the QO enabled Jackson to get a 4 year deal he never would have gotten otherwise, but cost the Nats a pick that they probably could have used … heck a junior college starter drafted towards the end of the first round in 2013 … probably would have been Sean Manaea, currently dominating for the same Oakland As who just sent us our next wave of bullpen reinforcements (more on that in a moment). But I digress.

We plan on giving Edwin Jackson another shot in the majors, despite his giving up 11 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for Baltimore earlier this year, despite his pitching to a 5.89 ERA in San Diego last year (where everybody looks like a Cy Young winner). I’ll say this: if the Nats can score in double digits for Jackson the same way they did for Ross … maybe it won’t matter than his ERA sits in the 6-7 range. It’ll look like a slow-pitch softball game.

But what choice do the Nats have? Erick Fedde you say? Have you seen his inconsistency in Syracuse? Its like the Nats didn’t learn from jerking Tanner Roark around a couple years ago; Starting pitchers are creatures of habit. They eat the same meal 2 hours before they pitch, they do the same running and lifting sessions in-between outings. If you have a successful starter, you don’t suddenly decide he’s a middle reliever. So it should be of no surprise that Fedde’s all over the road right now.

Jacob Turner? Well, he’ll be around too; I’m guessing he’s option 1-B to Jackson as 1-A. But Turner is no savior; you don’t get DFA’d and pass through waivers and accept an outright to AAA as a pitching prospect in the modern game unless the rest of the league really, really doesn’t like you. To say there’s a lack of quality starting pitching depth in the league right now is kind of an understatement.

Who else is starting for this team in the upper minors? Here’s the rest of the Syracuse rotation right now: Sean O’Sullivan, Jared Long, Greg Ross. Her’es their current AAA ERAs respectively: 4.40, 5.29, 6.34. Here’s how we acquired them, again respectively: MLFA in May of this year, MLFA in April of last year, and again MLFA in April of last year. So three org guys just eating up AAA innings, none of which are pitching especially well. No wonder Luke Erickson over at www.nationalsprospects.com has given up tracking the AAA team this year.

Maybe we drop down to AA: how’s that look? Bleak. Taylor Hill is already demoted once this year and is closer to a release than a promotion. Austen Williams: 6.85 ERA. Matthew Crownover is pushing a 5.00 ERA. They just got Wirkin Estevez off the D/L: he’s only got 26 innings of 4.10 ERA pitching above A-Ball. Lastly there’s John Simms, the “Ace” of Harrisburg’s staff who is pitching there for the *fourth* successive season. He’s got solid numbers: 4-6 with a 3.57 ERA but middling K/9 rates and some hittability; would you rather roll the dice on a grizzled veteran with more than 1700 innings on his MLB resume or go with a guy who you refuse to promote even to AAA despite the same decently solid numbers year over year? I think you have your answer.

So lets see how it goes. Jackson’s Syracuse numbers for 2017 are pretty nifty; 20 innings, 9 hits, 22 ks. Oh and 10 walks; we’ll just say that last part a little more quietly and focus on the positive. As I noted in the comments section in another blog … we’re about to see just what the difference is between AAA and the majors.

Meanwhile, after more and more ridiculousness in the late-innings of games (including a 7 run collapse late last week that nearly blew a 10-run cushion), the Nats finally made their move to bolster the bullpen (and hopefully grease the skids for a wholesale shedding of deadweight off the 40-man roster by everyone involved in the latest debacle). Rizzo called up his best buddy Billy Beane and pulled off what I think is a pretty good trade:

Acquire: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madsen: both mid-30s one inning guys with excellent numbers this year and neither being one-year rentals.

Give up: Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo and Sheldon Neuse

Treinen just needs a mental D/L trip; there’s nothing appreciably different with his stuff from last year (when he was good) to this year (when he has been awful). Classic change of scenery guy who returns to his drafting team and probably has a solid rest-of-2017. Luzardo and Neuse are good prospects but young and several years away; perfect for what Oakland wants. I’m bummed they’re leaving (especially Luzardo, who by all accounts has come all the way back from TJ surgery and had looked solid in his early GCL outings). Prior to 2017, Neuse was generally about our 8th best prospect and Luzardo 12th or so. Both have improved their rankings with their play this year, so this may look more foolish if Luzardo becomes a #2 starter in a few years. But as they say, you have to give up stuff to get stuff.

As others noted, the Nats managed to get these two guys without giving up any of their top ranked prospects (Robles, Soto, Fedde, Kieboom), which is a huge win.

(Note: I know that there’s the most likely chance I have something wrong for Potomac since many readers here attend their games regularly; remember, i’m just a guy sitting at his desk scouting the score line so feel free to tell me where i’m wrong…)

And don’t forget the invaluable work of SpringfieldFan maintaining the Nats Big Board, now in its 12th season!

Note: in the below list, “missing” means that the player was on a 2016 roster, is still listed as active but is not found anywhere on a 2017 full-season roster as expected. Most are still sitting in Extended Spring Training (abbreviated XST throughout) with the intent of getting assigned as injuries or releases occur, but some may be release candidates. Other abbreviations I use often: MLFA == Minor League Free Agent, OOO = Out of the Organization.

Rotation discussion: In Potomac we start to see the log-jam of starters from recent drafts. I count 6 guys who could be starting and another 3 guys who have mostly started in the past. As it turns out, a couple of the long-time lefty starters from the 2015 draft have been pushed into bullpen roles, perhaps for the longer term. The burgeoning investment the team is making in the D.R. is evident here; all 5 rotation members are from the island, along with a huge chunk of the roster.

Of the starters listed above, i’d say that Luis Reyes and Jefry Rodriguez are probably on the thinnest of ice to stay in that role, given last year’s results. Reyes had a 5.60 ERA in half a season in Potomac last year and Rodriguez had a 4.96 ERA in a full season starting in Low-A. Wirkin Estevez feels like he’s been around forever; this is his 7th pro season in the system yet is only in High-A; he had a couple spot starts last year and I’m kind of surprised he made the rotation over especially Matthew Crownover and Taylor Guilbeau. I could also see Grant Borne move into the rotation if one of the stated starters fail; Borne had a nifty 3.34 season in long relief in Low-A, pitching an average of 3 innings a stint, so perhaps he’s in line for getting stretched out. I guess the old adage “you can never have too much pitching” holds true for Potomac; its nice to have 9 different guys who you know could give you a start.

The preponderance of guys used to going longer stints leaves just a handful of known “relievers” in the pen. R.C. Orlan was Potomac’s effective closer last year and returns to that role, while Hagerstown’s closer Mariano Rivera Jr. rises up to form a nice 8th-9th inning lefty-righty combo. Amazingly Ronald Pena returns for this 6th pro season, and returns to Potomac where he started half a season in 2014. No offense to Pena, but I remain surprised that he’s lasted this long with the org. The last non D/L name is a 2017 MLFA by the name of Kyle Schepel who I had completely forgotten about until I looked him up. Kylin Turnbull, who has not thrown a pitch in anger since 2014, remains on the D/L in Potomac along with Tommy Peterson, who had an excellent 2016 season in relief and could be a good reliever if he is healthy.

The guys who are listed as “missing” include three guys who all finished the 2016 season in High-A and seem like they’re intended to start there again.

Who am I focusing on: I want to see what Joan Baez has; we know he can bring the heat but can he be an effective starter? I’ve always liked the trio of lefty veteran college starters we picked in the 2015 draft early rounds; Hearn (since traded), Crownover, Borne and Guilbeau (picked in the 5th, 6th, 7th and 10th rounds respectively), so I look forward to them all moving up a level in 2017. I want to see what the two closer-quality relievers (Orlan and Rivera) can do.

Austin Voth seems like the most likely rule-5 protection candidate. Photo mlb.com official

Here’s our annual ritual. Discussing the Rule 5 draft and the impact it has on rosters.

According to my Off-Season Baseball Calendar teams have just a few days (Nov 18th) to add players to the 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, at the Gaylord Hotel in the Maryland waterfront in early Dec).

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2012 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2011 or before is newly eligible this year.

This year’s Draft class Stat overview posts were especially helpful too; here’s the 2013 version for College draftees and the 2012 version for high school-age draftees that are now Rule-5 eligible.

Newly Eligible 2013 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Jake Johansen: Only listed because of his draft round and bonus; Johansen has been a huge disappointment and will not be protected.

Austin Voth: Absolutely has to be protected and should have been added on 9/1 to get him some MLB innings.

John Simms: Put up solid numbers in AA and could feature in AAA this year, but isn’t a shoe-in to immediately contribute at the MLB level. Arguable whether he’s worth protecting. I would, but then again, i’m pro-prospect.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Cody Gunter, David Masters, William (Isaac) Ballou, Justin Thomas and Matthew DeRosier. All of these guys are scuffling or trending down in my analysis and are not risks for being drafted. Also did not mention any MLFA’s picked up that were 2013 draftees (Philip Walby, Jake Mayers) since they’re both in the low-minors.

None: the only HS-age draftee from 2012 that remains in our system is Lucas Giolito, who was added to the 40-man mid 2016 season.

Newly Eligible 2012 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Osvaldo Abreu: slashed .247/.328/.346as the starting SS for Potomac. Has neatly risen one level every year, so seems project-able to AA for 2017. I can’t see him getting drafted though considering he had a .674 OPS figure in High-A this year, even given that he could provide MIF cover for a MLB team. Has gotten some notice on prospect lists.

Rafael Bautista: slashed .282/.344/.341 with 56 stolen bases in 136 games playing mostly CF/RF for Harrisburg. A CF with that kind of speed who maintains his BA and OBP is worth protecting. Turns 24 before next season though.

Jefry Rodriguez: went 7-11 with a 4.96 ERA in 25 starts for Low-A Hagerstown. Rodriguez was on our lips for a while as a potential high end prospect … until he couldn’t succeed outside of short-season ball. 2016 was the third year he’s competed in Hagerstown and a 4.96 ERA isn’t going to cut it. He’s no threat to get drafted but probably keeps moving up the system.

Philips Valdez: went 12-7 with a 4.24 ERA across two-levels and 27 starts this year. He turns 25 in a few days. Despite being a AA starter, I’m not sure any team would really roll the dice on him in Rule-5. He “only” had 109 Ks in 152 IP this year, not exactly overpowering stuff. He also got hit in AA; i can see him starting in AA rotation again next season.

David Ramos spent most of 2016 on the D/L in Auburn and has never pitched above low-A ball. Not a candidate to be protected.

Not mentioned: several 2012 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Andres Martinez, Darryl Florentino, Mario Sanchez, Brayan Serrata.

One other significant 2012 IFA signee is already on the 40-man: Reynaldo Lopez.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2012 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2011 and prior HS/IFAs.

Raudy Read: slashed .262/.324/.415in a full year catching in High-A. Promising, but he’s also already 23. Considering a rule-5 draft of a player like Read brings back memories of our own drafting of Jesus Flores.

Bryan Mejia: slashed .241/.279/.347 starting a full year playing 2B for High-A. Not a ton of power there; little chance of being drafted, no prospect buzz.

Jose Marmolejos (no longer -Diaz): slashed .289/.370/.475 between High-A and AA while earning his 2nd straight Nats minor league hitter of the year award. Good slugging percentage showing lots of gap power and some home-run power, but he’s already 1B-only and is 23.

Hector Silvestre: spent most of 2016 doing short stints/rehab assignments after missing all of 2015. 9 starts, 1.42 ERA amongst all A-ball affiliates. Looks promising for us, but no need for Rule-5 protection at this point.

Gilberto Mendez: nice numbers as a late-inning reliever for High-A (2.09 ERA, 8 saves). Turns 24 tomorrow and is an undersized RHP reliever; no risk of being picked.

Wander Suero (2010 IFA): 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA, 48/21 K/BB ratio in 55 AA innings. Solid numbers … but not a lefty so seems unlikely to get drafted. But he’s really no different than Simms, so he’s a maybe.

2012 College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include Perez, Benincasa, Self, Pena, Orlan; none are really worth protecting. There are no 2011 HS draftees still remaining in the system. Other 2011 IFAs still around but not mentioned: Anderson Martinez, Diomedes Eusebio, Randy Encarnacion, Jorge Tillero. 2010 IFAs still hanging around not otherwise mentioned: Adderling Ruiz, Narciso Mesa. All are so low in the system they’re not worth mentioning.

So, who would I protect? As of today, the team has a ton of open slots on the 40-man roster to work with (32 of 40 as of this writing), but has to “save” some room for some clear FA/trade acquisitions. There’s also (arguably) a bit of wiggle room there; I see at least 4-5 additional guys on the current 40-man who could make way if need be.

Locks: Voth, Bautista

Maybes: Simms, Abreu, Read, Marmolejos, Suero, Valdez

Who would I protect? Probably Voth, Bautista and Marmolejos. I’d roll the dice leaving the likes of Abreu and Read unprotected despite their presence on prospect lists, and I’d roll the dice leaving Simms, Suero and Valdez unprotected since they’re all RHP and none has pitched above AA.

Thoughts? Opinions? Did I forget anyone and/or am I considering the wrong guys? These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status. So let me know if I’m missing someone.

MLBpipeline posted its Rule5 analysis and mentioned (for the nats) the four names we’re bouncing around here as well. We don’t have any super-high ranked prospects to protect like other teams.

11/18/16: official announcement: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole. Most surprised by Skole, who I didn’t even bother to do analysis about above thanks to his lack of a 9/1 call up this year.

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

Discussion: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: Matt Belisle makes the team ahead of Trevor Gott. Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold. There was some question about whether Blake Treinen would get optioned early in the spring, but not now. The order of the starters wasn’t right: Ross is being treated like the 4th starter and Roark the 3rd, I guess.

It probably wasn’t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back too much. Lets talk minors.

Discussion: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D/L for the time being.

The bullpen has some surprises: Gott as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots. Two guys got pushed to AA. Brady starts on the D/L. Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA Velasquez. The real surprise making the AAA team was Masset.

Burnett opted out when he didn’t make the MLB team, but it wasn’t a stretch to predict that happening.

No real projection surprises though, all in all. Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (Bacus and de los Santos). I’m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).

The big surprise here is that Austen Williams made the AA team; I had him at High-A. Perhaps it isn’t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats’ proclivities to start guys at their prior season’s level and have them “earn” early to mid-season promotions. He joins a pretty high powered duo of Giolito and Lopez. Gorski was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn’t win. Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (Dupra): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.

In the bullpen, we’ve talked before about the surprising release of Jake Walsh. There’s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates. One name that popped out of the blue is Robert Fish, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn’t pitched professionally in two full seasons. He must have had a pretty good spring.

Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my “reading the stat lines” predictions can be, especially for starters.

In the Rotation, AWilliams earned a jump to AA. I thought Dickson and Van Orden were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released. Lastly, I thought both Estevez and Reyes were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year. Instead they’re opening day starters for Potomac. Not even close here.

In the Bullpen, we got Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre and Turnbull right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D/L and still may be release candidates. Who did we miss on? Robinson was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and Sanchez I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.

From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown’s rotation. Four of the Six projected candidates “seem” like they’re in the rotation (full disclosure, we’re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation). The misses? LReyes, who surprisingly is in High-A, and Guilbeau, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.

In the bullpen; we missed on Sanchez (who made High-A), Borne and Gunter (both of whom are in XST for now). In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere. I thought both VanVossen and DeRosier were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they’re in the opening day bullpen. I had LTorres in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.

Lastly there’s Bach and RPena; I had both projected in Potomac. I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League. Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014. You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.

No real surprises in the “Missing/XST” crew: Dickey is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere. Borne‘s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau’s; he missed out in the 2016 competition. Gunter might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury. Ramos was hurt most of the year last year.

In the “release candidate” section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez. DWilliams and Boghosian have already indeed been released. And both Mooney/Pirro missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.

Let the games begin! Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?

All our full-season squads have been announced, and its time to start looking at the pitching staffs.

I never got to doing my massive reviews of the rotations of the various farm system teams this past off-season (job change, less free time at home, they being a ton of work, etc). Which also led to my not doing any predictions on where our pitchers would start the 2015 season. Which is a bummer, because it is always fun to see if my predictions were decent and to see how player movement has affected the squads. Lets go team by team and (focusing on the rotations) look at how things have changed since the end of last season.

Discussion: We’ve certainly talked this through. Quickly; Fister‘s 2014 spring training injury opened the door for both Roark and Jordan to duke it out for the 2014 5th starter job, eventually won by Roark, who gave the team a 5-win season as the 5th starter. That wasn’t enough for the Nats though; committing $210M on Scherzer for the next decade or so, pushing Roark to mop-up guy/insurance starter for opening of 2015.

Manager Matt Williams also shook up the 2015 rotation order, installing the starters by accomplishment, not by reputation. Thus 3-year running opening day starter Strasburg is dropped to the #3 hole, and last year’s #2 Gonzalez is now basically the #5 starter.

Enough about the MLB discussion though; lets get to the minor league rotations.

All four full season minor league squads are announced here by Nats Journal. In some cases we know who the rotation will be, in other cases the below is a huge guess. Especially at Hagerstown (as we’ll see).

A late spring training injury to Casey Janssen has called presumed AAA starter Blake Treinen into action in the Nats bullpen, perhaps for the long run. Which has opened up a couple of spots in the Syracuse rotation … and they’ve been surprisingly filled. Instead of installing who I presumed to be the 5th AAA starter (trade acquisition Felipe Rivero), the team has announced that 2014 MLFA signing/rubber-armed swingman Scott McGregor and 2015 MLFA Bruce Billings will fill out the rotation.

Changes from 2014? Rosenbaum traded for catcher depth, Tatusko to Korea, Poveda remains an unsigned MLFA, and Laffey signed a new MLFA deal with Colorado.

One has to think that McGregor/Billings are temporary holds in the rotation until Treinen returns. The conversion of Rivero to the bullpen is more interesting; the team is rather short on lefty starters in the system right now (thanks to a slew of upper-end draft pick lefty starters failing in the past few years … ahem Solis, Purke, Mooneyham, Turnbull). As we’ll see later on, there’s nobody really that makes sense to supplant any of these guys as a starter from AA or XST.

Harrisburg went through an awful lot of starters last year. 19 guys got starts, 15 of which were not just one-offs. From last year’s opening day, Schwartz got demoted after putting up a 7+ ERA and then hurt, Gilliam got hurt, and Purke had Tommy John surgery. By the end of the season, only Rivero remained in the rotation, though he spent a good spell on the D/L as well. Dupra got 12 starts and 24 appearances and was medicore (5.60 ERA), Poveda had great ratios (39Ks in 32innings) but an ugly era (5.34), and MLFA Kroenke was abhorrent (6.72 ERA).

Returning for 2015 are Austin Voth, the 2013 draft pick who shot up two levels last year, and last year’s MLFA Paolo Espino, who has re-upped with the team for 2015. They are joined by newly acquired Joe Ross, MLFA Tim Alderson and the surprising Matt Swynenberg (who was closer to retirement than a rotation gig this time last year). I have 2015 MLFA Richard Bleier as a swingman/spot starter for now. This rotation may be augmented by some of the Missing/XST arms (see later discussion).

Lots of turnover in the Potomac rotation as well; 14 guys got starts from last year. Dakota Bacus, Brian Rauh, and Matthew Spann are reprising their roles as starters from the end of last season, while two others (Dickson and Sylvestre) remain in XST limbo for now. What happened to the rest of these guys? Brett Mooneyham and Nick Lee posted ERAs of 7.36 and 10.05 respectively and were both demoted. Encarnacion was nearly as bad and was outright released by the organization earlier this past off-season.

Luckily, we kind of already know that the opening day rotation is going to change: we know where two of the organization’s brightest arms are heading. Giolito and Lopez should supplant Bacus and Rauh, making for a rather formidable Potomac rotation.

Well; Hagerstown’s rotation should be … interesting. When you look at the assigned arms, there’s only three clear-cut starters from last year. So clearly either the Hagerstown team will be getting reinforcements from the XST list or there’s guys being converted from 2014 relievers to 2015 starters.

Pivetta and Giolito were the mainstays from last year; both will be in high-A at some point soon. Ott was flipped as a throw-in with the Steven Souza deal. Its hard to pass judgement on this rotation until we talk about those in XST.

A.J. Cole seems like a lock to be added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule-5 draft. Photo AP

After talking about 2015 payroll projections and then 2015 options analysis, and coming to the conclusion that:

We’re payroll heavy and might see some shedding this off-season, and

Our 40-man is full and we have a ton of guys without options.

Thus, the next logical step is to talk about who might get shed off the 40-man roster in order to protect incoming players ahead of the Rule 5 draft.

This post is a bit earlier than we normally do it; Teams have until 11/19/14 to add players ahead of the rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, 12/11/14 in San Diego). All these dates and more are on the off-season Baseball Calendar for 2014-15. But, because we’re talking about it, lets get into the analysis.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then giving some thought to prospect acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2011 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee from 2010 or before is newly eligible this year.

Newly Eligible 2011 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Brian Goodwin: Supp-1st round pick from 2011, paid like an upper 1st rounder, who has been a continual presence on top-100 prospect lists but who hit just .219 in AAA this year, didn’t play after July 1st, and has been clearly passed on the organizational OF depth chart by both Steven Souza and Michael Taylor. Do the Nats protect their $3M bonus investment and find room for Goodwin on the 40-man? I think they do.

Matt Skole, 5th rounder who blasted his way into the Nats minor league hitter of the year in 2012, then suffered a freak injury in the 2nd game of the year in 2013, costing him a whole season. His OPS dropped more than 200 points from 2012 in 2014. He’s almost a 3-true outcomes kind of hitter (good power, a TON of strikeouts but a lot of walks). I’m in agreement with others; because of his lefty power and a distinct lack of lefty power elsewhere, I feel like he’s a potential future contributor. I’ve always liked Skole and hope we don’t lose him in a rule-5 gambit.

There’s a whole slew of guys who were college draftees in 2011 who are still in the system. No one else has even matriculated to AAA yet, and some are still in high-A. The one name that sticks out as someone who “should” be in this conversation is 2011 4th rounder Kylin Turnbull. But no one else on this list merits any discussion for protection at this point.

Just one: A.J. Cole. Who, it goes without saying, is a lock to get added. In fact, there was only one other HS draftee in that entire 2010 class who signed; Robbie Ray.

Newly Eligible IFAs under consideration for protection (signed in 2010)

Wilmer Difo: just named MVP of the South Atlantic league, occupies a position of weakness in the system. But would someone grab a guy from Low-A and expect to keep them on the 25-man roster all year?

A couple of other 2010 IFAs who sometimes pop up here: Wander Suero, Wirkin Estevez.

Minor League Free Agents of Note (it isn’t live yet, but this list will be at this link on BaseballAmerica eventually). These are original draftees of the Nats who have now played in our org for 6 years. They are basically guys who were drafted in 2008 and who have not yet been released or added to the 40-man. Or they’re MLFA signings from last year.

Rafael Martin: frequently discussed here. Great numbers in AAA this year. Already 30. Not a rule-5 issue necessarily, but a jeopardy to sign elsewhere.

Destin Hood: 2nd round pick in 2008. So much promise, finally posted decent numbers in 2014. Strategically, if you were Hood would you re-sign here though? He’s at least 7th on the OF depth chart by now.

The whole Syracuse rotation: McGregor, Espino, Laffey and Lively. Along with Delcarmen, Stange and Runion. My initial impression is that the team’s going to have more than enough pitching to fill Syracuse’s rotation from those that aren’t going to make the MLB rotation (Cole, Jordan, Hill and Treinen to start, then throw in Rivero and maybe even Solis). So the starters likely are gone; maybe we could use some more MLFA relievers though.

The only other 2008 draftees still hanging around are Jose Lozada and Paul Demny. I’m guessing neither signs with us for 2015.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note:

Matthew Grace: had an excellent year in AAA, as discussed many times here. Worth protecting?

Neil Holland: a decent year between AA and AAA; he does not seem a jeopardy to get picked so the team can hold onto him for one more year before he hits MLFA.

Did I miss anyone? I hope not.

So, who would I protect? I would protect Cole and Skole for sure. I would highly recommend protecting Goodwin.

Past that, I’d roll the dice. I like Grace and Martin, enough that I’d like to see how they look in the spring, but perhaps not enough to drop someone else. I like Hood; maybe they try to re-sign him. I think Difo is important, but they’ll risk not adding him since he’s only played at low-A.

They’re already looking at dumping 2-3 people to cover the above names; any more and you’re really digging deep, even withstanding the whole “7 guys are out of options” discussion we just had.

Thoughts?

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis for 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

By year, here’s who I predicted we’d add and who we did add. My “predictions” are kind of iffy, because in some cases I clearly hedged in the post and said something like “if it were me I’d add X,Y and Z but I think they’ll only add X and Y.”

Yunesky Maya is “Really Old” for AAA; but does it matter? Photo unknown

A recurring statement that you often hear when talking about prospects in the minors is “Age Appropriateness” for the level in which the player is playing. And for good reason; a seasoned minor league player who is playing against younger, weaker competition should have dominant numbers, and when analyzing that player’s performance this should be taken into account. On the flip side, if a guy advances quickly up the minors and is a “youngster” at a high level and performs poorly, he shouldn’t immediately be written off, since he’s likely overmatched and needs time to “grow” into the level.

This topic comes up here often when talking about pitchers and their performances, and I frequently talk about a guy “being old” or “being young” for his level as a way to either discount good performances or explain away poor ones. But what is “Too old for a level?”

I have always used a rule-of-thumb measurement advocated by John Sickels at minorleagueball.com for looking at player ages (I cannot find the original Sickels posting but have seen it attributed to him in several forums). That rule-of-thumb is as follows:

AAA: Typical Age range is 23-24. Age 25 depends. 26+ is old

AA: 22-23. 24 depends. 25+ is old

High-A: 20-22. 23 depends. 24+ is old

Low-A: 19-21. 22 depends. 23+ is old

Short-A: 19-20. 21/22 for draft year guys only. 22+ is old

GCL: 17-19. 20 for draft year guys only. 21+ is old

Now, the caveats to the above are as follows:

1. This is specifically worried about prospect development; clearly we know that a former major leaguer on a minor league free agent contract in AAA is going to look like he’s really “old” for the level when we need understand his presence there differently. A rising prospect who is in AAA at the age of 26 or 27 who hasn’t made it to the majors yet is absolutely “old” and is probably closer to minor league free agency or a release than he is to making the big team.

2. Injuries matter. If a college grad loses a year to TJ surgery and then is sitting in high-A as a 24 year old in his second pro season (think Nathan Karns) you can’t really hold that against him. But if he’s dominant, you can sort of explain why and say that he needs to be moved up.

Luke Erickson (with Brian Oliver‘s help) came up with similar looking ranges for the various levels and have made it a link off the main page of NationalsProspects.com. And I talked about this topic a couple of years ago in this space in advance of this same analysis, which I last performed in 2011.

Without further ado, here’s a look at the actual age ranges of the Nationals four full season minor league teams as they stood on 2013’s Opening Day (yes, i’ve had this data in the can for a month and a half and am just getting around to publishing it). I last did this analysis two years ago and it is interesting to see how the age ranges have changed slightly over the years. Here’s 2011’s and 2013’s ranges (click here for a Google spreadsheet of all the detail to check my work and do your own sorting; this link is also in the Links to the right):

2011

AAA

AA

High-A

Low-A

Really Young

25.54 or younger

24.44 or younger

22.65 or younger

21.88 or younger

Young

25.54 – 26.93

24.44 – 25.37

22.65 – 23.83

21.88 – 22.84

Old

26.93 – 28.79

25.37 – 26.65

23.83 – 24.77

22.84 – 23.65

Really Old

28.79 or older

26.65 or older

24.77 or older

23.65 or older

2013

AAA

AA

High-A

Low-A

Really Young

25.91 or younger

24.02 or younger

23.08 or younger

21.69 or younger

Young

25.92 – 27.75

24.02 – 25.17

23.08 – 24.00

21.69 – 22.66

Old

27.75 – 30.35

25.17 – 26.84

24.00 – 24.91

22.66 – 23.39

Really Old

30.35 or older

26.84 or older

24.91 or older

23.39 or older

Data Taxonomy: I’ve taken every pitcher on every team’s roster in each of the four leagues that the Nats have farm teams in (AAA = International, AA = Eastern, High-A = Carolina, Low-A = South Atlantic), put them into a spreadsheet, calculated their ages at the end of this season (9/1/13) and then calculated the four quartile figures in terms of age. I only used pitchers in our leagues as opposed to the entire level across all of baseball thinking that different leagues may have different needs (I’m thinking how the California League and the Pacific Coast League has so many hitters parks and thus the pitchers may linger there longer, skewing the numbers). I also standardized the numbers to be at the end of the season as opposed to the beginning, so that people can talk about a player’s “Age 25 season” for example.

So (using 2013’s AAA as an example): the 25th percentile age is 25.91, the 50th percentile or median age is 27.75, the 75th percentile age is 30.35. For ease of labeling, anyone in the lowest quartile is “Really Young” for that level, 25th-50th is “Young,” 50th-75th is “Old” and anyone in the 75th percentile or higher is labeled “Really Old.” I know some don’t like these labels; if someone just moves past the 50th percentile they go from being “Young” to “Old” in a hurry. But I have to draw the lines somewhere. The fractions are represented as fractions of an entire year of days, so .91 is 91/100ths of 365 days old. This say, as opposed to the way that MLB service time is represented in Years.Days and you see numbers like “1.113.”

Looking at 2011 to 2013’s changes: notice how AAA is getting much older. I think that is due to so many teams giving non-guaranteed MLFA deals to former starters and relievers and stashing them in AAA. Look at our own team: we’ve got guys like Chris Young, Fernando Abad, and JC Romero all in their 30s, skewing the numbers northward. Meanwhile both AA has gotten slightly younger; its median age has dropped slightly.

Here’s a look at the Nationals’ four full season minor league pitching staffs, with the ages listed and the “age appropriate” label given. Note that I did this right at the beginning of the season so I havn’t captured all the moves made in the last month.

AAA Syracuse

Team

Name

DOB

Age as of 9/1/13

Age Status

Syracuse (Washington)

Bill Bray

6/5/1983

30.24

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Cole Kimball

8/1/1985

28.08

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Brad Meyers

9/13/1985

27.97

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Matt Torra

6/29/1984

29.17

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Sean West

6/15/1986

27.21

Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Jeremy Accardo

12/8/1981

31.73

Really Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Jeff Mandel

4/30/1985

28.34

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Patrick McCoy

8/3/1988

25.08

Really Young

Syracuse (Washington)

J.C. Romero

6/4/1976

37.24

Really Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Michael Crotta

9/25/1984

28.93

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Bobby Bramhall

7/13/1985

28.14

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Tanner Roark

10/5/1986

26.91

Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Ryan Tatusko

3/27/1985

28.43

Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Daniel Rosenbaum

10/10/1987

25.89

Really Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Ross Ohlendorf

8/8/1982

31.07

Really Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Fernando Abad

12/17/1985

27.71

Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Erik Davis

10/8/1986

26.90

Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Yunesky Maya

8/28/1981

32.01

Really Old

Syracuse (Washington)

Ryan Perry

2/13/1987

26.55

Young

Syracuse (Washington)

Chris Young

5/25/1979

34.27

Really Old

Discussion: Our “really old” guys are no surprise; they’re all basically guys on MLFA contracts. Well, and Yunesky Maya, who is just playing out the string at this point. I’m more interested in the “prospects” who are in AAA and their age status, and they mostly look good. Pat McCoy and Danny Rosenbaum both rate as really young for the level. Erik Davis and Ryan Perry both rate as young, even despite Perry’s MLB experience. Otherwise are there even other “prospects” worth analyzing on the Syracuse roster at this point? It seems that most everyone else on this team is a backup starter or a backup loogy.

Oldest Guy in the Int’l League: Miguel Batista with Toronto’s AAA affilliate. Yes our own Mr. Batista from two years ago, still hanging around. He’s yet to get called back up in 2013. Ironically the 2nd oldest guy in AAA is also on Buffalo and is also an ex-Nat: Ramon Ortiz, who has gotten called up to help cover for Toronto’s injury-devistated staff and has a couple of apperances already.

Youngest Guy in the Intl’ League: Giovanni Soto with Cleveland’s AAA affilliate in Columbus. He’s not considered a high-end prospect; he’s just a guy drafted out of HS who has made his way level-by-level and is now 22 in AAA. The 2nd youngest guy in AAA is a more familiar name (Trevor Bauer, also with Cleveland’s team) and the ten youngest pitchers in the league reads like a top-50 Pitching prospects list MLB-wide.

Percentage of Int’l League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 65/210 or 30.9%. This shows just how much AAA is turning into a spare-parts holding league.

AA Harrisburg

Team

Name

DOB

Age as of 9/1/13

Age Status

Harrisburg (Washington)

Adam Olbrychowski

9/7/1986

26.98

Really Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Sammy Solis

8/10/1988

25.06

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Rafael Martin

5/16/1984

29.30

Really Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Cameron Selik

8/25/1987

26.02

Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Paul Demny

8/3/1989

24.08

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Marcos Frias

12/19/1988

24.70

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Brian Broderick

9/1/1986

27.00

Really Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Trevor Holder

1/8/1987

26.65

Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Aaron Barrett

1/2/1988

25.66

Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Caleb Clay

2/15/1988

25.54

Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Neil Holland

8/14/1988

25.05

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Rob Wort

2/7/1989

24.56

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Pat Lehman

10/18/1986

26.87

Really Old

Harrisburg (Washington)

Matt Swynenberg

2/16/1989

24.54

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Ian Krol

5/9/1991

22.32

Really Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Blake Treinen

6/30/1988

25.17

Young

Harrisburg (Washington)

Nathan Karns

11/25/1987

25.77

Old

Borrowing from my Monthly check-in on the Minor League staffs, who are we really interested in on this roster? The rotation is Broderick, Treinen, Demny, Clay and Karns. Broderick is really old for the level, but we already knew that (considering he was in the majors as our Rule-5 draftee two years ago). Karns and Clay are “old” for the level but not overly so; the median age is 25.17 and they’re 25.77 and 25.54 respectively. So just a few months older than the median. Not bad considering Karns basically lost two years of development time due to injuries. When the team gets Solis back, he’ll still be young. And most interestingly is Ian Krol who is the 4th youngest guy in the Eastern League but has dominant numbers thus far in 2013. Most of the “really old” guys are relievers who most would agree are “Org guys” and will naturally fall of the roster when their 6-year FA period arrives.

Oldest Guy in the Eastern League: Willie Collazo on Toronto’s AA team in New Hampshire, who had four years in the PCL and likely is only on a AA roster as a procedural location since he started the season on the DL. In fact, most of that team’s roster is among the 20 oldest guys in the league. And as with the AAA team there are ex-Nats all over their rosters. I think we’re seeing the effects of former Nats front-office member Dana Brown now in Toronto helping to shape their minor league roster with guys he’s familiar with.

Youngest Guy in the Eastern League: One Dylan Bundy, Baltimore farm-hand who already has MLB innings and who some thought could have broken camp with the Orioles. Unfortunatley for Bundy, he’s been sidelined with shoulder issues all year. But he’s clearly an up-and-coming talent. The 2nd youngest guy in the Eastern league is also a big-time prospect: Jamison Taillon in Pittsburgh’s org. In fact, when Taillon and his fellow uber-prospect Gerrit Cole matriculate to the majors, Pittsburgh is going to suddenly find themselves with one of the league’s elite pitching staffs.

Percentage of Eastern League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 15/182 or 8.24%. Just a handful (Nathan Karns is one, Bundy is one).

High-A Potomac

Team

Name

DOB

Age as of 9/1/13

Age Status

Potomac (Washington)

Paul Applebee

5/17/1988

25.29

Really Old

Potomac (Washington)

Robert Gilliam

11/29/1987

25.76

Really Old

Potomac (Washington)

Josh Smoker

11/26/1988

24.76

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Matthew Grace

12/14/1988

24.71

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Robbie Ray

10/1/1991

21.92

Really Young

Potomac (Washington)

Colin Bates

3/10/1988

25.48

Really Old

Potomac (Washington)

A.J. Cole

1/5/1992

21.66

Really Young

Potomac (Washington)

Ben Hawkins

11/4/1989

23.82

Young

Potomac (Washington)

Tyler Herron

8/5/1986

27.07

Really Old

Potomac (Washington)

Gregory Holt

6/19/1989

24.20

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Taylor Jordan

1/17/1989

24.62

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Christian Meza

8/3/1990

23.08

Really Young

Potomac (Washington)

Richie Mirowski

4/30/1989

24.34

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Derek Self

1/14/1990

23.63

Young

Potomac (Washington)

Taylor Hill

3/12/1989

24.47

Old

Potomac (Washington)

Kylin Turnbull

9/12/1989

23.97

Young

Discussion: Our starters at the time of this writing in Potomac are Ray, Jordan, Schwartz, Cole and Hill. Schwartz wasn’t on this roster when I did the cut-n-paste jobs but he’s almost the same identical age as the man he replaced Turnbull. Ray and Cole still rate as “Really Young” (they’re the 7th and 10th youngest guys in the Carolina league) despite both guys repeating this level, a testament to just how young these guys were LAST year. Jordan rates as “old” but with the injury caveat. Hill is four months older than the median age so frankly he’s right on schedule. By and large though this is an older staff, which to me is indicative of the college-heavy pitcher drafts Mike Rizzo has done the last few years. All of our staffs are going to trend old.

Oldest/Youngest Guys in Carolina League: Baltimore’s Frederick affiliate oddly has the two youngest guys (Eduardo Rodriguez, Zachary Davies) and the two oldest guys (Eunchul Choi and Rob Delaney) in the league. I’ve never heard anything about any of these four, so I can’t really add much commentary here

Percentage of Carolina pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: Just 2/115 for 1.74%

Low-A Hagerstown

Team

Name

DOB

Age as of 9/1/13

Age Status

Hagerstown (Washington)

Blake Schwartz

10/9/1989

23.90

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Brett Mooneyham

1/24/1990

23.60

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Brian Dupra

12/15/1988

24.71

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Brian Rauh

7/23/1991

22.11

Young

Hagerstown (Washington)

Bryan Harper

12/29/1989

23.67

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

David Fischer

4/10/1990

23.39

Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Dean Weaver

5/17/1988

25.29

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Dixon Anderson

7/2/1989

24.17

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Ivan Pineyro

9/29/1991

21.92

Young

Hagerstown (Washington)

Matt Purke

7/17/1990

23.13

Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Pedro Encarnacion

6/26/1991

22.18

Young

Hagerstown (Washington)

Robert Benincasa

9/5/1990

22.99

Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Ronald Pena

9/19/1991

21.95

Young

Hagerstown (Washington)

Todd Simko

12/5/1988

24.74

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Travis Henke

7/9/1988

25.15

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Will Hudgins

2/12/1990

23.55

Really Old

Hagerstown (Washington)

Wirkin Estevez

3/15/1992

21.46

Really Young

Discussion: as with Potomac, 9 of the 17 guys on this staff are in the “Really Old” category, again a testament to the college-heavy arm drafting of late. Even Brett Mooneyham is now on the old side of the league median age, and he’s just got one full pro season under his belt. The one guy listed as “Really Young” is DSL grad Wirkin Estevez

Oldest Guy in the Sally League: Miami’s low-A affiliate in Greensboro has a guy who is already 28 named Miguel Fermin. He’s in low-A because he’s converting to be a Pitcher after 6 years as a middle infielder.

Youngest Guy in the Sally League: Atlanta’s Lucas Sims, their 1st round draft pick from 2012, who hasn’t even turned 19 as of today (but will have by the end of the season). The 2nd youngest is a lefty prep draftee in Baltimore’s system named Josh Hader who has an interesting story thus far; he was a HS draftee in the 19th round who put up great numbers in short-season last year, broke with the low-A team and has a 1.74 ERA through four starts as of the time of this writing. Sounds like a heck of a draft find for Baltimore so far.

Percentage of Sally League pitchers on MLB 40-man rosters: 1 of 196 pitchers. That one? our very own Matt Purke, who at this point, I’m not afraid to say, looks like he could be a draft bust. Not a major one though mind you; the Nats bribed him out of his college commitment with a 3rd round pick but mid first round money in 2011. But that could end up being a lost 3rd round pick unless Purke can show us something this year. In some ways it was a great gamble to get a guy who was 15-0 as a freshman … and “its just money” right? If this kind of draft money allocation were to have happened in the new system, and the team blew its entire wad of money on one injury-prone guy, we’d be much more concerned.