Thursday, January 22, 2015

It really is profoundly depressing to realise that the only reason the broadcasters were ever going to agree to do the decent thing over the leaders' debates was that they needed a tactic to try to cajole David Cameron into taking part. So much for that innate sense of "British fair play". But it doesn't really matter a damn how we got here - the point is that a Rubicon has now been crossed, because Scotland has heard the broadcasters accept the principle of SNP involvement in the main debates, which in practice will make any back-pedalling almost impossible. (In any case, if there were to be any foolish attempt at a retreat, I would imagine the prospects for a successful SNP legal challenge have just been considerably enhanced.) There are really now only two possibilities - a) Nicola Sturgeon will have some kind of place in the main debates, or b) there won't be debates at all. Either is absolutely fine as far as I'm concerned, because the SNP won't be disadvantaged. Basic fairness was all we ever wanted - nothing more. Why the London establishment initially reacted to that modest request as if we were demanding golden elephants will always remain something of a mystery.

There is of course still a wrinkle attached, with the proposal being that only two of the three debates will be inclusive. The other is supposed to be a Cameron v Miliband head-to-head. That's thoroughly reprehensible, but it probably won't be too damaging. The main battle in a Westminster election is simply to ensure that voters don't forget that the SNP exist and are one of the choices. Inclusion in two of the debates should be sufficient to achieve that, and the 'Prime Ministerial' debate may simply reinforce in people's minds how much more inspiring political discourse becomes when the choice is widened.

If the debates do go ahead as proposed, the big losers will of course be Jim Murphy and Jim Murphy's Status. It won't be Jackanory Jim who'll be seen to be Nicola Sturgeon's Labour opponent, but Ed Miliband. And that's just as it should be.

31 comments:

Well said. My feeling is that for the whole campaign, the SNP should just talk over Jim Murphy's head. Sturgeon should be challenging Cameron and especially Miliband, not Davidson and Murphy. It's an easier target since everyone seems to hate "Red" Ed, but it also makes Murphy look ineffectual. On top of that, if she's seen to be able to compete with the big boys, it gives people another wee boost to the idea that Scotland can actually do pretty well if we've got decent, clever people like her in charge rather than an Eton mess or a fratricidal geek.

Of course, the consequence of inviting everyone and their granny onto these debates could be that the viewing figures are dramatically lower than last time. People want to see gladitorial clashes involving, ideally, the two main contenders - although they may tolerate a third. Do people really want to see Nicola Sturgeon and the Green Party leader debating the finer points of renewable energy policy while David Cameron looks at his watch and Ed Miliband screws his face up into yet another cartoonish expression out of sheer boredom? It might be good for a laugh I suppose. But the political anoraks will tune in. Everyone else will tune out.

If your idiot hypothesis is that only little Ed and the fop Cameron can possibly draw in the viewers then PMQ's viewer figures and indeed their hilariously low popularity ratings with the public would tend to indicate you are as amusingly out of touch as they are.

As for how they react to the other debaters, well we are talking about a pair of unpopular twits who can scarcely afford to look bored as they get nailed to the wall on their own hypocrisy and lies. So yes, they likely will make a few twatty faces and then suffer the consequences. It's not as if either of them have any real skill at debating to fall back on.

Yes, allow in the three left wing women with unworkable ideas about how to run the economy and see labour's vote split several ways, making Britain ungovernable as the tories will certainly get nowhere near a majority themselves.

But of course, that's the SNP's plan isn't it? A sort of scorched earth tactic; "You want to be in the UK? Fine. But we're going to break it in the hope that either you will change your mind and want out or everyone else will boot us out".

Compromise. Pragmatism. Realism. Working for the greater good. These are well and truly out the window. Welcome to the politics of the playground. Scream and stamp your feet and throw things - and people will see you as 'strong' and vote for you. Because, basically, they are sheep - with no clue what needs to go on to guarantee their nice, cosy lives.

I see the DUP now want in. Who next? Sinn Fein? Almost certainly if the DUP get in. Who else? Respect? Socialist Workers' Party?

Well the way that the English media is demonising Nicola, the viewing figures will go through the roof when she's on, just because the public will want DC and Red Ed to be putting that little Jock-ess upstart in her place, in fact the English voters and Press will be demanding this.

It's going to be fantastic to see Nicola and Leanne destroy the public schoolboys who have, in all likelihood, never faced a proper debate in their lives. To watch them be destroyed by smart, articulate women, won't just ensure they fail at the polls, it will destroy their future as politicians. Almost certainly it will end Nick Cleggs reign in Sheffield

You're being a little unfair there on English voters, Patrick. The MSM will indeed be freaking out before and after the debates -- Telegraph HQ should be a hoot -- but I expect many English people will welcome these three progressive, female leaders. But it's the aftermath I particularly look forward to, when English progressives and apathetic voters will have seen what real progressive leaders look like on a high-profile platform, some of them for the first time in their lives.

I agree with James Kelly that from the SNP's POV it would be no biggie if the debates never went ahead, but I really hope they do. What the politically progressive/left/sane have lacked so long is momentum. We have it now in Scotland (and then some). This might be just what gets the ball rolling in England.

It will also be vastly amusing to see how the poundshop racist Farage reacts. We in scotland already know that when he is outside his very, very narrow comfort zone of banging on about muslims and immigrants he tends to sound as big a westminster public schoolboy twat as the rest of them.

No doubt his kipper fanboys will be getting worried right about now since he would be up against popular and well regarded political leaders with the greens and the SNP. Not a joke politician who the public obviously despises like Calamity Clegg.

As a Scot, I can honestly say that the UKIP member of the panel told the truth. There is a lopsided arrangement currently in the UK and it says a lot for the English that they're not really that bothered about it.

Out of interest, is it just me that wants someone to tell Katy Clarke to defect to the Greens already and the SNP not to oppose her. Just seems like there are one or two labourites that need an opt out and might actually deserve it.

SNP win in FIFE .... local issues SNP resignation; Lab were 1st & 2nd in 3 member constituency. Should have been an easy win for Lab. Just one seat but consistent with GE polls. Either Lab close 2 collapse or if they might up their turnout % ... who knows. I added same party 2012 candidate votes to get a pesudo baseline. Sorry if format below turns out crap, and for any errors...

No I think the swing is about 15% as it's based on the share of vote change. My %Change column is from baseline as I wanted to see if we could deduce where the 7% Turnout drop came from. Looks like it could be over half of the Labour 41% drop came from stay at homes. If so then bounce back possible if they can be motivated.