Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

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FNUS21 KWNS 180850
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL OPEN UP WHILE MOVING EWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SANTA ANA WIND
EVENT OVER SRN CA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THROUGH PASSES AND BELOW CANYONS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LOW RH READINGS...THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NATION...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND
SCT PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN OCCUR ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH...MIN RH VALUE AROUND 15 PERCENT AND POOR RH RECOVERY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NELY WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM
THE HIGH DESERTS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL...MIN RH
READINGS WILL FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RE-STRENGTHENS.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BELOW
PASSES/CANYONS.
...NRN/CENTRAL CA...
OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN FURTHER
SOUTH...SUPPORTING ONLY MODEST OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOW RH
READINGS AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME INTERIOR
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR COMBINES WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/SFC COLD FRONT...NLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F WILL COMBINE WITH LOW DEWPTS TO
SUPPORT MIN RH READINGS NEAR 15 PERCENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
/SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH/ ARE ANTICIPATED TO RELAX BY THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE LOWEST RH READINGS WILL OCCUR. THEREFORE A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
..CROSBIE.. 10/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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FNUS22 KWNS 180851
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED OCT 18 2006
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DOMINANT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/ERN
CONUS TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL RESIDE OVER THE WRN
CONUS SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER THE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF SRN CA WHERE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES/STRONGEST WINDS WILL EXIST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL MTNS/VALLEYS OF SRN CA...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: SUSTAINED NELY WINDS FROM 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH BELOW PASSES/CANYONS...MIN RH READINGS AROUND 10
PERCENT...POOR RH RECOVERY
THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATE AT THE START OF THE DAY 2
PERIOD /8-10 MB/ BETWEEN SRN NV AND THE SRN CA COAST. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER MORNING OF NELY WINDS OF 25+ MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40
MPH. MIN RH READINGS FROM 10-15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS/MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING COMBINED WITH DRY FLOW FROM THE HIGH
DESERTS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL
RE-INTENSIFY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE REMNANT OFFSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT POOR RH RECOVERY
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
..CROSBIE.. 10/18/2006
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...