Trump–Kim Summit: Much Ado About Nothing

A wise man once said, “If you want to know
where a man is going; you need to understand where he’s coming from”. This
phrase aptly sums up the Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam that wrapped up before
time due to strong disagreements over a ‘deal’. The crux of the matter here was
expectations. In specific terms we can say that Chairman Kim was expecting all
sanctions post 2016 except armaments to be lifted while only agreeing to part
closure of the Yongbyon Nuclear facility which basically means that the Trump
administration would be subsidizing any future nuclear and missile testing
while removing deterrence. North Korea also disagreed to a complete freeze on
their WMD programs.

Most importantly, the elephant in the room
“denuclearization and its definition” still remains unsolved. North Korea
suggests that since the sanctions came into being on account of testing, a
freeze on testing from their end should automatically indicate their cessation.
So, what happens to the existing nuclear weapons and multiple-range missiles?
What happens to any other nuclear and missile testing facilities apart from the
“part of Yongbyon” that North Korea has agreed to shut down. Well, the correct
answer is nobody knows!

This stalemate is hardly surprising. In our
comprehensive book on the Korean Peninsula; we have emphatically stated that it
is very important to understand North Korea’s Juche ideology which is a
manipulated version of Neo-Confucianism and the importance of nuclear weapons
for the Kim Dynasty before any semblance of a deal can even be drafted. For
America, the usual rulebook of deal making will be inadequate when dealing with
North Korea which is completely ideologically driven and has a very clear
vision of its place in the world. Many experts have made the fatal mistake of
comparing North Korea with Iran or Pakistan in terms of their nuclear bluff and
alliances. While it is true that North Korea has alliances with some rather
shady countries and groups; its idea of a nation-state and the strong ambition
to be taken seriously with respect leans more towards a Soviet mindset than any
other. North Korea is also not a suicidal country and while its actions may
seem rash, it is actually playing the game of chaos which President Trump has
tried to play in kind using the madman playbook.

So, what comes next? Have we completely
lost the chance to civilize North Korea? The author thinks this is just the
beginning. If America is serious about a deal, it will now have clearly
understood that the red lines that North Korea was drawing since Day 1 which it
thought was mere bluff and bluster was true. While the Trump administration
always stressed on North Korea’s denuclearization, the Kim administration had
always said it was open to the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula” which
is a very different context and perhaps impossible. During our research for the
book, it was amply evident that North Korea’s nuclear program for civilian use
and military use cannot be de-hyphenated. The program is bigger than a source
of pride or a bargaining chip for the Kim Dynasty. It is bigger than a tool to
control its generals and the poor civilian population.

Does North Korea want to open up to foreign
investment? Most certainly. Chairman Kim is a highly ambitious, narcissist who
has big plans for himself. These plans include not kowtowing to China. North
Korea and China have a very complicated relationship. We must not forget that
even though Chairman Kim assumed leadership before Xi, they had their first
meeting only after a date had been finalized for the first ever meeting between
an American President and a North Korean leader. Xi has consistently refused to
address Kim as an equal and snubbed him multiple times. Chairman Kim is also
aware that Mao had ditched his grandfather for the Americans at the time he
needed his assistance the most. Then, there’s also China’s recent appropriation
of Goryeo history from North and South Korea which is of great significance to
the Korean people. These are simple facts China simply can’t wish away!

China has attempted to use its historical
relationship with North Korea as leverage on the Korean Peninsula as a tool in
the ongoing US-China trade war. North Korea has allowed this to happen as it is
able to punch above its weight in talks with America. March 1 was the initial
deadline of the talks between US-China which has now been postponed. With the
Vietnam summit not achieving any results, Trump will go after the Chinese hard
which actually works in North Korea’s advantage. It is also interesting to note that Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was in Vietnam ahead of the Hanoi summit and
stated “United States has asked Moscow’s advice in dealing with North Korea and
believes America must offer Pyongyang security guarantees for any disarmament
to be successful”.

The Trump administration has been screaming
from the rooftops about its achievements in eliminating North Korea’s nuclear
threat. In light of the US global withdrawal and its greater empowerment of
regional allies in Cold War 2.0, it should consider a paradigm shift in what it
considers North Korea’s role in Asia. North Korea’s extensive rare earth
elements and minerals resources and their necessity in 5G where the Trump
administration is ensuring Huawei is unable to dominate should ensure this. USA
should start leveraging North Korea’s complicated relationship with China for
its gains. Will North Korea’s elimination of nuclear or missile threat to US alone
be considered a win for the Trump administration? Will US access to these
valuable elements in North Korea be enough for Trump? It is pertinent to note
that China currently holds the monopoly in REE elements and is extremely choosy
about granting access to other countries in the emerging Fourth Industrial
Revolution.
United States will have to expand its definition
of denuclearization if it expects North Korea to walk the talk. The benefits
accrued thence will be many provided it is willing to adopt a more
accommodating approach in the changing global order. After all, if it can lift
an arms embargo on Vietnam, the country with whom it fought one of its longest
unsuccessful wars, it should be able to make common ground with North Korea. While
President Trump left Hanoi immediately yesterday, Kim has stayed back on a
state visit to Vietnam. It is noteworthy that the Vietnamese Government allowed
the commemoration of the bloody Sino-Vietnamese War on 17th February
in the media for the first time in 2019 breaking decades of policy. It is also
noteworthy that an average Vietnamese when thinking of war thinks not of
America but China. Diplomacy is all about optics. The commemoration; mere days
before the important Trump-Kim Summit followed by Chairman Kim’s official visit
gives a very clear message about his priorities and ambition which needs to be
capitalized.

Asian Warrior is a team of young likeminded people working towards the common goal of understanding the dynamic patterns across the globe. Our primary focus is geopolitics to discover social, economic and political patterns in related to foreign policy and national security. We also study its impact and significance on humanity in the times to come.
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