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Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

I've been saying this for a couple of weeks now. I think he's been miscast as a leadoff hitter simply because he's fast. So what do we know?

He's fast

When he runs into a ball, he can hit it a long way

Elite defender

He's either slumping or his entire approach is wrong.

Let's look at points 1 and 3. Unless he get's injured or grows into some odd version of Adam Dunn, these two points should last him roughly at the level he's at, for another 6 years easy. His SB% for the year is 80%, but it's early. And SB's are overrated anyway.

Now let's look at points 2 and 4. His frame suggests power, but the results have been anything but. He had a nice burst at the end of last year, but it was one of those "one of these things is not like the others..." He never displayed that kind of power before EXCEPT at Low A. Look at his Low A splits:

The sample is smaller, Stubbs lower in the order, but a few things stick out.
His K rates are MUCH lower. In fact in his career, his highest OPS (in his minor league career) is batting 3rd.

He's miscast. The question is do the Reds see it that way? What would I do?

Send him to AAA, bat him 3rd. Maybe 2nd, but probably 3rd. Don't emphasize the speed aspect of his game, let it compliment it. Teach him a more compact swing that produces power results. Just my 2 cents.

Suck it up cupcake.

Raisel Iglesias is The Demon's Head. Accept this nickname as bestowed.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

On the contrary, I think Stubbs is absolutely cut out to be a leadoff man. It seems like he grasps the approach of seeing pitches and trying to get on base. Unfortunately, I think he's putting way too much pressure on himself and he's still not ready to handle the off-speed stuff.

Until he's ready to handle the steady diet of breaking pitches and until he's comfortable hitting MLB pitching, I do think dropping him in the order is the way to go. He's clearly overmatched right now.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

Put him at the bottom third of the lineup and give him regular playing time.

"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

My offseason answer was to strictly platoon Dickerson and Stubbs. Of course, that was dependent on the Reds actually getting a left fielder who's worth a crap. Jonny Gomes is an all around disaster, and his sub .300 on-base percentage combined with his defense would render him as one of the worst all around outfielders (if not players) in the league.

At this point, I just start Stubbs every day in CF and Dickerson every day in LF. Figure out if they're going to stick or not, and quit screwing around with them.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

Originally Posted by Tom Servo

Put him at the bottom third of the lineup and give him regular playing time.

Originally Posted by Cyclone792

My offseason answer was to strictly platoon Dickerson and Stubbs. Of course, that was dependent on the Reds actually getting a left fielder who's worth a crap. Jonny Gomes is an all around disaster, and his sub .300 on-base percentage combined with his defense would render him as one of the worst all around outfielders (if not players) in the league.

At this point, I just start Stubbs every day in CF and Dickerson every day in LF. Figure out if they're going to stick or not, and quit screwing around with them.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

Platoon Stubbs and Dickerson and drop him in the lineup to take the pressure off. I don't see a better in house solution.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

Originally Posted by TRF

9 AB's. that's three games worth of AB's in that slot

True... But in a post-game interview he said how much better he feels hitting there. How there's less pressure and he doesn't have to force the issue... When a player is giving you that kind of information, you should probably trust it as a manager... The issue though, is that leaves the Reds without a decent option at lead-off if Dickerson and Stubbs can't handle it...

Or does it?

I still say Phillips has no business hitting 4th... Move him to lead-off... Maybe you can convince him to stop swinging for the fences in that role... I doubt it, but it's worth a shot. At the very least, you still have a lead-off hitter not clogging the bases... Bruce bats 2nd, Votto third, Rolen 4th, and OCab can hit 5th. Gomes/Nix/Dickerson in the 6 spot, Stubbs 7th, and Hernandez 8th.

Not really sure why this is so difficult for Dusty. It's that type of outside the box thinking (/sarcasm) that would allow you to mix things up without making a move... And possibly get your team out of a funk.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

the problem is that the Reds LF/CF candidates include:
1. a rookie (Stubbs)
2. a platoon CF or bench player (Dickerson)
3. a platoon LF/DH (Gomes)
4. a bench player (Nix)
5. a whole bunch of prospects who don't seem ready (Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Hesiey)

how did this happen? Castellini refused to give Walt any money to get a real left fielder for 2010 & our prospects have disappointed so far.

what to do now:

#1 the most important thing IMO is not to impede the development of Stubbs as well as the prospects still in the minors. whether Stubbs bats 1rst or 8th. whether he plays every day or platoons or semi platoons. these decisions should be based on how best to handle his development.

#2 what i would do:

bat him 7th or 8th. why? less pressure on him.

i would also semi platoon him in CF.
he plays against all LHP (25% of games) with Gomes in LF.
against most RHP (50% of games) he play CF & Dickerson plays LF.
in the other 25% of games (lets say the really tough RHPs) he sits with Dickerson in CF & Nix in LF.
This way get starts ~75% of the games. If he starts hitting all RHP then he plays every day. If he can't hit RHP after an extended period of time then CF becomes a strict platoon of Dickerson/Stubbs. who plays LF? well by then hopefully one of the minor league guys is ready.

Re: Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?

I'm all for moving him down in the order, and as someone pointed out in another thread, it's not so much about pressure as approach. In the leadoff spot, he's trying to be patient, work the count, see a lot of pitches, and all that other classic leadoff stuff. But his contact skills are such that he's an easy putaway when behind in the count. Hitting lower in the order, he seemed comfortable letting it rip when a hittable pitch comes. Which, in the odd way these things happen, would probably up his walk totals since pitchers will start to reconsider the wisdom of the get-ahead fastball.

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