Monday, February 29, 2016

Despite bombings and financial sanctions the Islamic State
is still coming up with ways to bring in cash. The Wall Street Journal and
Financial Times just documented IS’s deals with Iraqi money exchangers and
Syrian oil traders to keep money flowing into the caliphate. It’s yet to be
seen whether that’s enough to sustain itself, but it shows that it will still
take a lot more to cut off the group’s sources of funding.

Erika Solomon from the Financial
Times reported on how the Islamic State is offering bulk oil deals in an
attempt to avoid coalition air strikes. IS is issuing 1,000 barrel petroleum
licenses to oil traders in Syria. A Syrian trucker said that three businesses
had been given these offerings that involve the al-Omar field. This was in
direct response to coalition air strikes that have been hitting tanker trucks
at oil fields and IS’s storage facilities. By making these large deals IS can be
assured of sales and arrange times and places for deliveries to avoid a large
number of trucks cuing up at the Omar field, which might invite an air strike. It
also keeps their oil flowing to local markets in Syria and Iraq, which the
group has come to rely upon. For the traders they can buy a large quantity of
oil from IS instead of waiting for small purchases with everyone else.

The Wall Street Journal added another piece
on money exchangers who continue to operate in IS controlled territory. These
businesses play a crucial role in sustaining the caliphate as they deliver cash.
At the center of this network is allegedly Abu Omar, a Mosul based businessman
who also operates in Irbil, Sulaymaniya and Hit. After Mosul was taken in June
2014 he agreed to handle the organization’s money affairs. He and other
exchanges reportedly bring in cash into the caliphate through three main
routes. One is from Istanbul through Kurdistan to Mosul. Another is from Amman
to Anbar and Baghdad, and the third is from Turkey’s Gaziantep to Raqqa, Syria.
Allegedly Peshmerga and Hashd accept bribes to allow these businesses to
delivery cash into IS areas. At the end of 2014, the U.S. warned the Central
Bank of Iraq about these companies and how they were buying U.S. dollars at the
Bank’s auctions to support IS. The Central Bank responded
by handing out fines to banks and then banned 142 money exchangers in December
2014 from the auctions. The problem was that Iraq has no real regulators so all
these businesses had to do was set up a front company and they could get right
back into buying dollars. Baghdad cannot crackdown on the money exchanges or
auctions for two main reasons. First, many of Iraq’s traders rely upon
exchanges rather than banks to provide cash for their transactions, so they
can’t be shut down without crippling the economy. Second, Iran, Syria, Iraqi
organized crime rings, and the nation’s ruling parties are all involved in
buying dollars from the Central Bank to either gain access to hard currency or
to sell on the open market for a profit. That is a powerful group of actors,
which banking officials do not want to confront. That means there will be no
real reform of the auctions or effective measures taken against the exchanges
to limit the Islamic State’s access to dollars and cash.

One of the defining features of the Islamic State is its
resilience. Faced with powerful enemies the group is still working on counter
moves. It is attempting to create new oil contracts to deal with air strikes.
It has also continued to bring in cash through money exchangers, which keeps
its economy going. Western reports have IS struggling. It has allegedly cut the
salaries of its fighters, imposed fuel rationing, and is facing rising prices.
As one of its key phrases says however, the group is enduring these setbacks
and attempting to find ways to overcome them. They highlight the fact that the
caliphate is being hurt, but there is still a long way to go before it is
defeated.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

After a two year low in casualties the previous week,
violence was back up to its normal level from February 15-21, 2016. The heaviest
fighting continued in Anbar, while Baghdad was still the most dangerous
province in the country. In Kirkuk and Ninewa the Islamic State also executed a
large number of people, and there was an uptick in attacks upon the Peshmerga
in the latter. This could be the face of violence in Iraq for the rest of the
year with IS focusing upon terrorist attacks upon cities, and insurgent attacks
in the rest of the country.

There were 130 reported attacks the third week of February. That
was up from the 119 recorded the week before, which was the lowest amount since
2013. That dip was a pause in operations by the Islamic State after it launched
a huge number of counter attacks after it lost Ramadi. Now security appears to
be back to what it was before that.

Baghdad had the most recorded incidents with 58. After that
there were 19 in Anbar, 17 in Ninewa, 15 in Kirkuk, 8 in Diyala, 7 in
Salahaddin, and 6 in Babil.

225 people were killed during the week and another 239
wounded. The dead consisted of 1 Sahwa, 1 Hashd al-Shaabi, 9 Peshmerga, and 29
members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 185 civilians. The injured
included 2 Sahwa, 5 Hashd, 12 Peshmerga, 15 ISF, and 221 civilians.

Anbar remained the major conflict zone in Iraq. There was
fighting outside Ramadi and Fallujah, and in the Haditha district. IS
reportedly launched 2 car bombs, 4 motorcycle bombs, 9 suicide bombers, and 16
suicide car bombs, all of which but one suicide car bombs were killed or
destroyed. There were also stories on two air strikes on Amiriya
Fallujah and Fallujah
that led to two civilian deaths and 15 injured.

The security forces were still pushing forward into Ramadi’s
suburbs along with offensives in Garma and the Fallujah area. Hamidiya
to the east was declared cleared, but fighting continued there past the end of
the week. Operations were also launched against Jazeera
to the east and Albu
Obeid in the north, and in three
towns around Garma, and the city
itself. The Iraqi forces were also trying to clear the Saqlawiya area just to the
west of Fallujah. The securing of the Ramadi areas appears to be very
successful right now. On the other hand, the fight for Garma and Fallujah has
been going on for months now with no real sign of progress. Several towns in
the Ramadi district were still said to be under IS
control however. Dissent is appearing as well. There were a few days of
fighting in Fallujah,
and there were reports of clashes in Hit too. The latter might be the focus
of the next major offensive.

As the Islamic State loses the ability to hold onto
territory it has refocused upon carrying out terrorist attacks upon the
capital. Most of those occur in the south where there were 18 incidents, 16 of
which were likely the work of the militants including one sticky bomb, and 11
IEDs. What has been a major change in IS tactics, is that it is not relying
upon car bombs as much anymore. Before there was almost one such bombing a
week. Now those are rather rare with the last one occurring more than a month
ago. The Islamic State however is not the only threat in Baghdad, as there are
vigilantes, Hashd and criminals operating throughout the governorate. For
example, there were 4 kidnappings and 7 major robberies reported during the
week. Also 13 bodies were discovered dumped in the streets. Three American
contractors that were abducted were also released.
An Iraqi intelligence official told the New York Times that a Shiite armed
group was suspected, which was another sign of the growing lawlessness in the
province.

Southern Iraq is facing a similar situation. Many ISF units
were pulled out of the region to fight the insurgency leaving a vacuum. That
has led to growing tribal conflicts and criminal activity. The government
launched a major security operation in Basra, but fighting between clans continued
there and in other provinces afterward.

During the week the United Nations accused
the Hashd of kidnapping and killing one of its workers in Diyala’s Baquba. The
man was kidnapped in April 2015, but his identity was not confirmed until
February.

Kirkuk saw an increase in incidents. That was due to the
Islamic State executing people in Hawija and Riyad. The militants still hold
the southern section of the governorate, and have been cracking down on the
population there. During the week 36 people were said to have been killed by
the group. The main reason given in the press was that they were attempting to
flee the Islamists and were caught.

In Ninewa, IS executed 21 people, while attacking Kurdish
positions. Unlike in Kirkuk the killing of civilians in this province does not
appear to be part of a new crackdown, but rather business as usual for IS.
There executions are carried out for violating the group’s religious rules,
suspicion of cooperating with the security forces, etc. Outside of Mosul the
militants carried out 11 attacks upon the Peshmerga. That was far above the
normal number, but they were all turned back.

There was very little violence in Salahaddin, which was a
dramatic change from the status quo. There were only 7 reported incidents
during the week, the fewest since Musings On Iraq began collecting data in
January 2013.

From February 15-21 there was only one successful car bombs
reported in Iraq. 19 were destroyed, 17 in Anbar and 2 in Ninewa. Anbar’s
Amriya Fallujah was where one car bomb got through defenses and hit the
security forces on February 20.
IS had launched one attack upon positions there with car bombs and an infantry
assault that was turned back. IS came back again, and this time one suicide
bomber got through and killed 13 members of the security forces. Official
numbers on car bombs are usually greatly exaggerate the number of car bombs
they face each week, but there has definitely been a decided increase in their
occurrence in the last few weeks. The main reason appears that IS has given up
on its counter attacks following its loss of Ramadi, and so there has been a
temporary lull in car bombings.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com