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Consumer confidence among Floridians rose a point in June, to 82, according to a University of Florida survey. This is the fourth straight month of increases and a post-recession high.

“The increase in our index for June is so far led by a relatively large increase in perceptions of personal finances,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “There are several reasons for this increase, but the stock market gains for the first part of June certainly played a role in that. It’s worth noting that perceptions of current buying conditions are at a post-recession high of 93.

“The last time it reached this level was April of 2007, when it was 97. This was the beginning of the collapse in the housing market.”

Perceptions of personal finances now compared to a year ago rose three points, to 70, while expectations of personal finances a year form now stayed flat, at 82.

Expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose two points, to 83, while expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose a point, to 83. Perceptions as to whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items such as a car or large appliance rose two points, to 93.

“For now, consumers are still not registering any fears about the effects of sequestration,” McCarty said. “Most are concerned by the possibility of a rise in interest rates, as the Federal Reserve signaled it may reduce its intervention, specifically by reducing the amount of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities it purchases totaling $85 billion each month.”

Concerns over this move are likely overstated for two reasons, McCarty said: First, the Fed is unlikely to reduce the purchases to zero, but will likely gradually reduce the effort. If the economy shows signs of weakness, the Fed will resume the intervention, he added.

It is also worth noting that conditions are not the same as they were in 2008, when quantitative easing began, McCarty said. While the housing market is certainly helped by lower interest rates, there had been a low rate of building and an increase in population, leading to pent-up demand.

Housing prices may decline from their recent highs, but the underlying quality of loans is now very different from 2008. Recent buyers have good credit scores and typically put 20 percent down on their homes. This means that we will not see the massive foreclosures that led to the last recession, McCarty said.

“The Fed has seen the economy through dangerous economic times, but the economy is now operating normally,” he said. “There was nothing normal about 2008.”

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