Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have grown in popularity in Iowa, and the gap between them has slimmed to 7 percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent, without Joe Biden in the race, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.(Photo: Mark Marturello/Register illustration)Buy Photo

Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have grown in popularity in Iowa, and the gap between them has slimmed to 7 percentage points, 48 percent to 41 percent, without Joe Biden in the race, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

Clinton, long the presumptive nominee, was 8 points ahead of Sanders in the Iowa Poll in late August. Her support among likely Democratic caucusgoers has climbed 5 points since then.

Upstart underdog Sanders gained vote share, too: He's up 6 points from where he was two months ago. But he has a newly revealed vulnerability: His votes for gun rights rattle Democratic voters here.

Iowa Poll: Drilling down on Democrats

The new Iowa Poll was conducted before Biden's long-awaited announcement Wednesday that he isn't running for president a third time. To determine results without the vice president as an option, his first-choice support (he claimed just 12 percent) was reallocated based on second-choice responses.

With Biden no longer a potential entrant, two contenders are left center stage to battle one on one for the Democratic nomination.

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The Iowa Poll affirms what many surmised after last week's debate: Both Clinton and Sanders strengthened their candidacies, Democratic strategist David Axelrod told the Register.

"That may set up a caucus day test between Clinton's superior organization and the manifest enthusiasm of the Sanders supporters," Axelrod said.

All Democrats tested rose in their favorability ratings in the new poll, which follows the Democrats' widely watched first debate, on Oct. 13 in Las Vegas. Still, the poll offers a grim verdict for the lesser-known candidates — former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, former Virginia U.S. Sen. Jim Webb and former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee — who failed to capitalize on the opportunity to gain ground.

Webb stepped out of the Democratic race on Tuesday, saying he may run as an independent.

“The poll is a particularly stinging result for O'Malley, who began the race hoping to be the progressive alternative to Clinton, only to be eclipsed by Sanders,” said Axelrod, who was chief strategist for Barack Obama's presidential campaigns.

The Iowa Poll of 402 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The poll shows there was little room in the race for Biden anyway, Axelrod said. The vice president remains an enormously popular figure with Iowa Democrats. He and Clinton tie in the poll with favorable ratings of 85 percent each. But Biden had slipped in the horse race and was 30 points behind Clinton, a former U.S. secretary of state who would be the first female president in history.

Sanders, a Vermont U.S. senator, was virtually unknown in Iowa until he began campaigning for a revolution of like-minded liberals who think the wealthiest Americans have undue influence over the federal government. He's now viewed favorably by 82 percent of likely caucusgoers.

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Sanders has climbed steadily in every Iowa Poll this year: 5 percent in January, 15 percent in May, 24 percent in June, 35 percent in August and 41 percent now.

On one potential concern for Sanders, his self-label as a “democratic socialist,” 81 percent are not bothered.

However, the new poll shows he's vulnerable to one corrosive criticism.

Sixty percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they feel less supportive of Sanders because he has voted against waiting periods and background checks for gun buyers, positions that were highlighted in the debate. Three-quarters of Clinton voters say his gun stances undermine their support for him, and 46 percent of his own voters agree they're troubling.

“Listen, he didn’t get a D-minus NRA rating for nothing, all right?” Sanders’ top strategist, Tad Devine, told the Register last week after the debate.

Devine said Sanders has a strong record on safety legislation: He has voted to close the gun show loophole, supported assault weapons bans and pushed for mental health solutions to prevent gun crimes like mass shootings.

The leading criticisms thrown at Clinton — about her use of a private email server to conduct sensitive government business as the nation’s chief diplomat; about whether she adequately protected the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya, which suffered a deadly attack on Sept. 11, 2012; and about her delays or flip-flops on key issues — don’t hurt her with many likely caucusgoers, the poll shows.

Obradovich: Will Benghazi hearing burst Clinton's bubble?

Fully 81 percent said it doesn’t bother them that Clinton hasn’t been forthcoming about her home email server. Just 18 percent say that makes them less supportive of her.

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Clinton’s delays in making policy decisions or policy flip-flops don’t bother 64 percent; 34 percent are troubled. Since she last ran for president, she has been called out for doing U-turns on same-sex marriage, the wisdom of her Iraq War vote as a New York U.S. senator in 2002, full citizenship for immigrants in the country illegally, and states’ rights versus universal federal policy on gun control.

She also was months behind her rivals in stating opposition to the free trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and to the Canada-to-Gulf-Coast Keystone oil pipeline.

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Asked if the congressional investigations into Benghazi are worth the time and money, 79 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers said no.

The poll shows more Democrats are getting excited about the prospect of participating in the first-in-the-nation caucuses, which take place just over 100 days from now, on Feb. 1.

A majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they will definitely (53 percent) rather than probably (47 percent) vote in the caucuses, Selzer noted. That’s an increase of 15 points for the definite voters since August.

In contrast, a majority of Republican caucusgoers are still in the probably category (54 percent maybe versus 46 percent definite).

Both Sanders’ and Clinton’s vote shares have climbed because fewer people are uncertain about their first choice for president, Selzer said. In August, 14 percent were uncommitted or not sure, she said. Now, it’s down to 7 percent.

Women have been particularly hesitant to commit, but are now taking sides, Selzer said.

“There’s an overall better mood post-debate about Democrats because, finally, this is about issues. It isn’t about emails,” Selzer said. “The debate gave them a chance to feel good about being a Democrat.”

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Plurality of Democrats view deal favorably

A plurality of Iowa Democrats who intend to caucus are supportive of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal — and more view it favorably than their Republican cohorts do, the new Iowa Poll shows.

Thirty-nine percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they believe the 12-nation trade deal is good for Iowa, while just 27 percent say it’s bad for the state.

A plurality of Republicans, meanwhile, were unsure what the 11-nation trade deal would mean for Iowa. More Republican respondents, though, say it would be a bad deal than say it would be a positive for the state.

The results are somewhat counterintuitive: Republicans are typically more supportive of free trade, while Democrats often express concern that such agreements will undermine domestic employment and wages.

Trade is viewed as critical to Iowa's agriculture and manufacturing sectors and is credited with supporting more than 80,000 jobs in the state. Iowa set a record for exports last year. The five Republicans in Iowa's congressional delegation have supported the Trans-Pacific Partnership. U.S. Rep. Dave Loebsack, a Democrat, has opposed it.

Most Republican presidential candidates support the deal, while most Democratic candidates, including former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley — oppose it. Clinton announced her opposition just this month, in a stark reversal from her support for the deal as secretary of state.

— Jason Noble

Democrats: Little value to Benghazi probes

Likely Iowa caucusgoers are split sharply along partisan lines over the value of congressional investigations into the 2012 terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya, that killed a U.S. ambassador.

Three-quarters of Republican Iowa Poll respondents say such investigation is worth the time and money — against just 19 percent who say it’s not.

Democrats, meanwhile, have nearly polar opposite views: 79 percent say such investigation is not worth the resources being spent on it, while just 14 percent say it is.

The House Select Committee on Benghazi has been looking into the attack for more than a year, and will take testimony from former Secretary of State and current Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton on Thursday.

Democrats have accused the House’s Republican majority of pursuing the investigation primarily to raise questions and sow doubts about Clinton’s leadership amid the 2016 presidential race.

— Jason Noble

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About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted October 16-19 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 2,771 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 401 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.