Ken Kaye\'s Storm Center - Sun-Sentinelhttp://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm
Sat, 04 Jun 2011 01:35:04 +0000http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2enhourly1Caribbean disturbance has 30 percent chance of becoming stormhttp://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/2011/06/03/caribbean-disturbance-has-30-percent-chance-of-becoming-storm/
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/2011/06/03/caribbean-disturbance-has-30-percent-chance-of-becoming-storm/#commentsSat, 04 Jun 2011 01:35:04 +0000rsmallhttp://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/?p=4324The disturbance in the west-central Caribbean has become a little bit better defined, and the chances of it developing into a tropical depression or storm have gone up in the latest outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.

In the center’s 8 p.m. Friday update, the disturbance was still reported to be nearly stationary between Nicaragua and Jamaica, and it poses no immediate threat to the U.S. coastline. But as it sits over the next two days, heavy rains threaten to bring flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.

Its future path remains uncertain.

The hurricane center gives the disturbance a medium chance — 30 percent — of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the weekend.

The center is also monitoring a disturbance about 325 miles east of the Mexican coast, but is not giving it any chance of development over the weekend.

]]>http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/2011/06/03/caribbean-disturbance-has-30-percent-chance-of-becoming-storm/feed/0Caribbean disturbance has ‘medium’ chance of becoming tropical stormhttp://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/2011/06/03/caribbean-disturbance-has-medium-chance-of-becoming-tropical-storm/
http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/2011/06/03/caribbean-disturbance-has-medium-chance-of-becoming-tropical-storm/#commentsSat, 04 Jun 2011 00:31:31 +0000rsmallhttp://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/weather-hurricane-storm/?p=4318The disturbance in the west-central Caribbean has become a little bit better defined, and the chances of it developing into a tropical depression or storm have gone up in the latest outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center.

In the center’s 8 p.m. Friday update, the disturbance was still reported to be nearly stationary between Nicaragua and Jamaica, and it poses no immediate threat to the U.S. coastline. But as it sits over the next two days, heavy rains threaten to bring flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and southeastern Cuba.

Its future path remains uncertain.

The hurricane center gives the disturbance a medium chance — 30 percent — of developing into a tropical depression or storm over the weekend.

The center is also monitoring a disturbance about 325 miles east of the Mexican coast, but is not giving it any chance of development over the weekend.

Could South Florida see tornadoes as powerful and destructive as those that plowed over Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia and Kentucky on Wednesday and Thursday?

Very unlikely.

“We’ve never had anything remotely close,” said meteorologist Roberto Garcia of the National Weather Service in Miami.

Most of the tornadoes that develop in South Florida reach no higher than EF1, or up to 110 mph, on the Enhanced Frijita scale. Even tornadoes embedded in tropical storms and hurricanes rarely exceed EF1 strength, he said.

As a result, tornado deaths in this region are rare; only eight people have been killed in spring and winter tornado outbreaks since 1925, the weather service said.

Some of the tornadoes that raked across the six southern states this week intensified to EF4 level, or up to 200 mph. Almost 300 people were killed, including 210 in Alabama alone. Hundreds more were injured.

Why is South Florida essentially protected from the top-end twisters?

Tornadoes are frequently created out of warm moist air clashing with cold dry air, which creates instability in the atmosphere, Garcia said.

The more extreme the temperature and moisture differences, the stronger the tornadoes tend to be, he said.

This week’s tornado activity was born out of extremely dry air from the Northwest meeting up with extremely moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico.

By the time cold air masses arrive in South Florida, they already have been “modified,” or warmed up and moistened, Garcia said. The region is bordered by water on three sides, creating a subtropical atmosphere.

Further, the jet stream, a fast moving stream of air at high levels, “curves and concentrates energy to the north,” he said. That’s why Central Florida tends to see more tornado outbreaks than South Florida.

“That’s not to say we would never see an outbreak,” Garcia said. “But probably not of the same intensity.”

Some might wonder if this week’s tornado outbreak has any ramifications for the upcoming hurricane season, as in, are more powerful tropical systems in the offing?

Garcia said there is no apparent correlation between tornado activity and hurricane formation, as the strength and number of tropical systems is determined by completely separate atmospheric conditions, such as El Niño or La Niña, sea surface temperatures and African rainfall.

After a few days of sweltering heat, conditions should cool down starting today.

But not by much.

The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s and a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Evening lows are expected to dip into the upper 60s, which is at least better than the mid 70s we’ve been experiencing lately.

The cooler air, if you can call it that, comes courtesy of a weak cold front, expected to dissipate as it approaches Lake Okeechobee today.

Saturday and Sunday should be sunny and breezy with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s, or still a few degrees above normal.

If you’d like to tour NOAA’s WP-3 Orion hurricane hunter aircraft when it flies into Fort Lauderdale on May 6, you have a rather small window to do so – from 3 to 4:30 p.m.

Although the big four-engine turboprop will arrive at Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport that morning, officials said they had to limit public access because several hundred school children are scheduled to walk through the aircraft earlier in the day.

During the storm season, the WP-3 Orion flies into the eye of hurricanes on research missions and feeds back meteorological information to the National Hurricane Center.

Fort Lauderdale Executive will be its last stop on a five-city awareness tour, intended to urge residents to develop a hurricane plan and be prepared.

The plane will be parked at 6000 NW 21st Ave, on the north side of Executive Airport.

To get there: Take Cypress Creek Road to Northwest 21st Avenue, turn south go to where the road dead ends. You’ll see the plane near the airport’s maintenance and storage building. The tour is free.