In the long history of evolution it has not been necessary for man to understand multi-loop nonlinear feedback systems until very recent historical times. Evolutionary processes have not given us the mental skill needed to properly interpret the dynamic behavior of the systems of which we have now become a part.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Buena Pond-Pond 6 between Zilla and Union Gap off Hwy I-82 is stocked with catchable size rainbow trout, as well as crappie, and channel catfish. A state record 36.2 lb cat was pulled from Pond 6 in 1999. If you’ve driven to Pond 6 from Richland, you’ve covered the distance our atmosphere stretches from the earth’s surface to the edge of space. According to NASA, our atmosphere, the unique feature of the planet responsible for life as we know it, is a paper-thin 60 miles in depth.

For the most part, we humans take the planet and its systems and resources for granted. The crux of the problem is that we see ourselves standing apart from our planet’s interacting physical, chemical, and biological systems. That is a natural, but faulty perception of reality. Humans are an integral part of the Earth’s biosphere. As our numbers have grown and our technology progressed, we’ve had an outsized impact on the planet and its climate.

In pictures taken from space we see the atmosphere as a fragile, thin blue band between the Earth’s surface and the blackness of space. Be warned, that thin, blue band is what keeps us alive.

Sunday, August 17, 2014

If Earth's past climates tell us anything, it’s that ice will return. Over the last 2.6 million years, the planet has experienced a series of glacial periods separated by thaws, or interglacials. The next big chill could hit within two millennia—that is, if it weren’t for soaring levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, driven by humans.

“Climate modelers have been warning for many years now that the net impact of human activities would prolong the current interglacial,” says Chronis Tzedakis, a climate scientist at University College London.

A medley of forces influences the glacial-interglacial cycle, including the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth, which is controlled mainly by Earth's orbital shape and axial tilt, the composition of gasses and aerosols and extent of cloud cover in the atmosphere, and the reflectivity of Earth’s surface (for example, the extent of ice and vegetation cover at high latitudes). A reduction in incoming summer solar radiation would be the primary trigger for glaciation, but atmospheric CO2 concentrations—the primary driver of climate change—must be relatively low, too.

How low is “relatively low”? Tzedakis and colleagues compared ice and marine records from previous interglacials and found that, given the current small decrease in summer solar radiation, CO2 concentrations would have to fall to around 240 ppm for the next glacial period to take place.

Since the Industrial Revolution, however, atmospheric CO2 levels have been trending higher and higher. They reached an estimated 395.09 ppm globally in January 2013. So, if business proceeds as usual, with carbon release being driven primarily by fossil-fuel burning, we likely have a long thaw ahead of us. Modeling work by geophysical scientist David Archer has shown, for instance, that burning all potential fossil carbon on Earth—5,000 gigatons—would be enough to delay the next glaciation by 500,000 years.

That kind of hold-up would be a major deviation from the glacial-interglacial cycle that has played out over the last couple million years, in which glacial periods lasted about 80,000–90,000 years and interglacials about 10,000–20,000 years. (The current interglacial began about 11,500 years ago.)

The real question, then, might have more to do with the next “age,” generally, that we face, rather than the next ice age. Some scientists consider the current era to be defined by human influence, what Dutch chemist Paul J. Crutzen dubbed the Anthropocene Epoch, which has its origins in the Industrial Age.

Regardless of what comes next, it’s probably safe to say that we can’t expect a resurgence of woolly mammoths any time soon. Unless we clone them.

Friday, August 15, 2014

As climate change has warmed the Earth, oceans have responded more slowly than land environments. But scientific research is finding that marine ecosystems can be far more sensitive to even the most modest temperature change.

Global warming caused by human activities that emit heat-trapping carbon dioxide has raised the average global temperature by about 1°F (0.6°C) over the past century. In the oceans, this change has only been about 0.18°F (0.1°C). This warming has occurred from the surface to a depth of about 2,300 feet (700 meters), where most marine life thrives.

Perhaps the ocean organism most vulnerable to temperature change is coral. There is evidence that reefs will bleach (eject their symbiotic algae) at even a slight persistent temperature rise. Bleaching slows coral growth, makes them susceptible to disease, and can lead to large-scale reef die-off.

Other organisms affected by temperature change include krill, an extremely important link at the base of the food chain. Research has shown that krill reproduce in significantly smaller numbers when ocean temperatures rise. This can have a cascading effect by disrupting the life cycle of krill eaters, such as penguins and seals—which in turn causes food shortages for higher predators.

Higher Sea Levels

When water heats up, it expands. Thus, the most readily apparent consequence of higher sea temperatures is a rapid rise in sea level. Sea level rise causes inundation of coastal habitats for humans as well as plants and animals, shoreline erosion, and more powerful storm surges that can devastate low-lying areas.

Stronger Storms

Many weather experts say we are already seeing the effects of higher ocean temperatures in the form of stronger and more frequent tropical storms and hurricanes/cyclones. Warmer surface water dissipates more readily into vapor, making it easier for small ocean storms to escalate into larger, more powerful systems.

These stronger storms can increase damage to human structures when they make landfall. They can also harm marine ecosystems like coral reefs and kelp forests. And an increase in storm frequency means less time for these sensitive habitats to recover.

Other Consequences

Warmer sea temperatures are also associated with the spread of invasive species and marine diseases. The evolution of a stable marine habitat is dependent upon myriad factors, including water temperature. If an ecosystem becomes warmer, it can create an opportunity where outside species or bacteria can suddenly thrive where they were once excluded. This can lead to forced migrations and even species extinctions.

Warmer seas also lead to melting from below of polar ice shelves, compromising their structural integrity and leading to spectacular shelf collapses. Scientists also worry that warmer water could interrupt the so-called ocean conveyor belt, the system of global currents that is largely responsible for regulating Earth's temperature. Its collapse could trigger catastrophically rapid climate changes.

Will It Continue?

The only way to reduce ocean temperatures is to dramatically reign in our emission of greenhouse gases. However, even if we immediately dropped carbon dioxide emissions to zero, the gases we've already released would take decades or longer to dissipate.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Abu Dhabi AscentKeynote Address Paul Polman, CEO, Unilever & Chairman, World Business Council for Sustainable Development 4 May 2014

Secretary General, Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen. I’m happy to be here with you at this important meeting. Happy that all of us whether from government, business or civil society can come together, not just to talk, but to put together our plans for scaling up action on climate change. And while it’s great to be here as a representative of business , it worries me that sometimes you might get the wrong impression about where business is on climate change. You see the newspaper headlines on climate denial. Worries about the costs of transition, or the impact on jobs. Lobbying by vested interests to slow progress of change. But it is dangerous to assume that this noise represents the majority view of business. In fact, the idea that there is one single voice of business is nonsense. With 75% of the world economy made up of business that would be difficult to do. We know there is a loud minority, those with vested interests who know they will lose out in the transition to the low carbon economy of the future. The clearer the science and the economics of climate change become, the louder these opposing voices get. We should expect that, and indeed we see it already. But make no mistake; the undercurrent of business sentiment is overwhelmingly positive. When even a major oil companies start to demand a price on carbon, you know the world is shifting in the right direction. And when it comes to action on climate, or on sustainable development more broadly, the groundswell of support is overwhelming. As a member of the Secretary General’s High Level Panel on the Post 2015 Development Agenda, I had the opportunity to connect with CEOs in every sector and in every region of the world. Thousands of businesses representing over 10% of global GDP. They all said the same thing: They all want to be a part of the solution. None of them can prosper in a world of runaway climate change, inequality and poverty. And they all understand the need for political leadership and business action to work together to address system level challenges, like climate change, which are beyond the power of any one actor to fix alone. I believe we are at a tipping point. Businesses are starting to recognise, for the first time, that the cost of inaction is now greater than the cost of action. The evidence is there for those who choose to see. In the last decade alone, the world spent $2.7 trillion more on natural disasters than usual.KPMG estimates that the total profit of the food industry is at risk by 2030. The OECD predicts that, by 2050, over $45 trillion of assets could be at risk. I could go on. The good news is that more and more businesses have started working this out. Private capital is starting to flow to low carbon. Global investment in clean technologies is now up to $300 billion a year. The global low carbon economy is now a $4 trillion reality, growing at nearly 4% . And it’s proving to be more resilient growth: low-carbon and environment sectors grew robustly through the financial crisis right across the European Union. More and more businesses see this makes sense and want to be a part of it. Just look at what’s happening: Over 50 of the top 200 companies have set carbon intensity reduction goals in line with a 6% per year reduction target – necessary to stay within two degrees of warming.5 Many have integrated an ‘internal’ carbon price into their business strategies, in the expectation that you, the governments, will set an external carbon price in the near future. And the Banking Environment Initiative – some of the world’s largest banks from across the world – mobilising the finance industry to direct capital towards environmentally and socially sustainable economic development. I know you’ve heard statistics like that before. And you might say, “Yes but isn’t that just the minority, a small slice of the economy?”. 20 years ago you might have been right. 10 even. But not today. Today business has a new set of challenges, a new cadre of leaders and a deep desire to contribute meaningful solutions. 75% of the world’s largest companies now have multiple environmental and social goals in place. And new coalitions are rapidly forming.
The Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change, now has over 1000 companies participating in over 60 countries. The United Nations Global Compact, now 9,000 members, all committed to taking action. The Carbon Disclosure project is now supported by 722 institutional investors with over $ 7 trillion of assets under management. And the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, with a global network of over 35,000 national businesses doing the same. This is no longer about isolated examples or case studies, pilots or pet projects. It’s about a new wave of investment that we could realise if we want to. It’s not about philanthropy, It’s about future-proofing growth. We now need to scale all these initiatives. That’s why the newest coalition that brings many of these groups together is simply called “We Mean Business” Nothing could showcase this better than the World Business Council for Sustainable Development’s Action 2020 platform. A whole suite of ready–to-go business solutions; Companies and industries prepared to collaborate at levels never before seen in recognition of both the challenges we face, and the growth opportunities that will be unleashed by a clear change in direction to a low carbon world. Business solutions addressing: • renewable energy • carbon capture and storage (CCS), • deforestation and reforestation

As well as cross cutting climate solutions for cities and climate resilience. And yet the power to bring them to scale lies in the enabling hands of governments. Take an example close to my heart, the Tropical Forest Alliance. You heard a little about it from Helen Clark just this morning: Consumer goods businesses, together with leadership from governments of Indonesia, Liberia, the UK, the United States and Norway working together with leading NGO's such as WRI , WWF or Greenpeace, to address a common challenge: eliminating illegal deforestation - up to 15 % of global emissions according to the IPCC. Committing to action, not in theory but in practice. Since the TFA conversations began Wilmar, the Indonesian company which supplies around half the palm oil in the world, has implemented its own sustainability standards which look set to transform the industry. Impossible alone. Possible together. That is the power of partnership. That’s why, right now, WBCSD member companies are stepping up to lead on both action and advocacy. They are committing to putting climate risk and opportunity squarely into corporate strategies. And they are starting to build a united voice. A voice that speaks ever louder to you, our political leaders. A voice which says “We are doing this. So can you.” And we cannot underestimate the importance of that. Without the right policy frameworks and political signals, even the most determined business action will not reach the necessary scale. Let me give you an example. 12 years ago we thought it was impossible to refrigerate our ice creams without the use of HFC refrigerants. We didn’t know it then, but they’re one of the most damaging greenhouse gases that exist. 10 years ago we set up Refrigerants, Naturally! with UNEP, Greenpeace and others to set a clear target to change that. 6 years ago we applied to the US EPA to allow the use of alternative, natural refrigerant technology to be used in the United States. 4 years ago the 400 members of our global trade association, the Consumer Goods Forum committed to beginning an HFC phase out by 2015. And today at Unilever, we’ve already purchased over 1.5 million ice cream freezers. Over a quarter of a million in the last year. Coca Cola, PepsiCo and Red Bull have bought around the same number of drinks coolers. But this year, you as governments will have the opportunity to commit to an accelerated phase out of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. It is an unprecedented opportunity and I urge you to seize it. And while there are some quick wins on areas like HFCs, we know that’s just the start. Governments and heads of state have already committed to keeping global temperature rises to below 2ºC. Let’s be very clear what this means. Committing to 2 degrees means taking carbon emissions out of the energy systems of all major economies, within little more than a generation. We know this is feasible: we have the technologies and the capital. We know what policies we need. Yet we are on a very different path. As you all know, current national mitigation strategies only put us on a path to limit emissions rises to between 4ºC and 6ºC - more in some cases. That’s because not enough countries and businesses have internalised the costs. • the costs of inaction for their economies; • the costs of social unrest caused by unchecked climate change; • the costs of economic stagnation as consumers’ incomes are eroded by the rising costs of commodities, food and water.

And I would ask the government representatives here whether you have estimated these costs; Whether you have internalised that number into your own decision making about what sensible economic, climate and energy policy looks like. Some countries have of course. Our friends in the Small Island States see it more clearly. But this isn’t just about them. It’s about all of us. And yet this calculation is critical. It is only when countries do this analysis that they see the benefits of committing to a policy regime that will unlock the trillions of dollars of private sector investment. The truth is that when you do the sums right, you see there is no trade off between sustainability and growth. Fortunately it can be done, and after lunch my good friend President Felipe Calderon will take you through the work of the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate. It’s impressive work and I believe it will shift our collective perception of the climate change challenge. But I will let him say more about that. If climate action is so good for business, you might well wonder why that point of view isn’t often made more loudly or more forcefully by CEOs at your meetings. Well let me tell you unequivocally that it’s not because of any lack of appetite for action, or lack of understanding of the seriousness of the issue. It’s simply that CEOs prefer to work on specific tangible projects with real accountability, action and results. They are less versed in the broad framework discussions. Business people like to keep it simple. So let me try to do that: Business needs three things from the political community: Clarity, Confidence, and perhaps most of all, Courage. The more of these that the global business community can see, the greater and more transformational will be the business response. Above all, we are looking for evidence of a commitment to integrate international ambition in domestic legislation: Legislation that sets clear targets within a common framework; Targets that deliver not incremental but transformational change; Targets that will unlock billions of investments to stay within the 2 degrees challenge. And this is your opportunity; Your prize, if you will. Business overwhelmingly believes it can do this. Business wants to do this. But many are not yet convinced that all of you, the governments are with them. This is your opportunity to change that. This is your opportunity to lead. This is your opportunity to de-risk low carbon investment; To leverage the power of business to address the challenges we all face and to consider, seriously, the role that a carbon price must play in this transformation. The global business community has begun to chart a new course. As you go into your ministerial dialogue this afternoon, I ask you to reflect upon the opportunities that would be unleashed by a step change in our collective ambition; To recognise the benefits that would flow to the countries prepared to show real leadership; To see the changes for what they are: The beginning of the end for the high carbon era And the birth of a new kind of economy. An economy in which the new businesses of the future, And the forward-thinking ones from the past, Will come together to create a new industrial landscape, And a better future for us all.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Unilever defines sustainability broadly. It includes not just
environmental factors but improving the lot of customers and workers—its
own and those in its supply chain. It also aims to contribute to
society as a whole. These goals are seen as necessary to maintain the
firm’s “licence to operate” in an age when, Mr Polman believes,
companies will be subject to increasing public scrutiny.

Specifically, by 2020, Unilever aims to: “help a billion people to
take steps to improve their health and well-being;" halve the
environmental impact of its products; and source all its agricultural
raw materials sustainably, meaning that they should meet requirements
covering everything from forest protection to pest control.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

by Jamie Lincoln Kitman | March 2, 2000(This piece appeared originally inThe Nation)

When the EPA launched the first of several halfhearted attempts to begin removing lead from gasoline, lead's corporate affinity group fought back with a ferocity that bespoke major arrogance and even greater desperation. No sooner had the EPA announced a scheduled phaseout, setting a reduced lead content standard for gasoline in 1974, than it was sued by Ethyl and Du Pont, who claimed they had been deprived of property rights.

The next time you pull the family barge in for a fill-up, check it out: The gas pumps read "Unleaded." You might reasonably suppose this is because naturally occurring lead has been thoughtfully removed from the gasoline. But you would be wrong. There is no lead in gasoline unless somebody puts it there. And, a little more than seventy-five years ago, some of America's leading corporations--General Motors, Du Pont and Standard Oil of New Jersey (known nowadays as Exxon)--were that somebody. They got together and put lead, a known poison, into gasoline, for profit.

Lead was outlawed as an automotive gasoline additive in this country in 1986--more than sixty years after its introduction--to enable the use of emissions-reducing catalytic converters in cars (which are contaminated and rendered useless by lead) and to address the myriad health and safety concerns that have shadowed the toxic additive from its first, tentative appearance on US roads in the twenties, through a period of international ubiquity only recently ending. Since the virtual disappearance of leaded gas in the United States (it's still sold for use in propeller airplanes), the mean blood-lead level of the American population has declined more than 75 percent. A 1985 EPA study estimated that as many as 5,000 Americans died annually from lead-related heart disease prior to the country's lead phaseout. According to a 1988 report to Congress on childhood lead poisoning in America by the government's Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, one can estimate that the blood-lead levels of up to 2 million children were reduced every year to below toxic levels between 1970 and 1987 as leaded gasoline use was reduced. From that report and elsewhere, one can conservatively estimate that a total of about 68 million young children had toxic exposures to lead from gasoline from 1927 to 1987.How did lead get into gasoline in the first place? And why is leaded gas still being sold in the Third World, Eastern Europe and elsewhere? Recently uncovered documents from the archives of the aforementioned industrial behemoths and the US government, a new skein of academic research and a careful reading of that long-ago period's historical record, as well as dozens of interviews conducted by The Nation, tell the true story of leaded gasoline, a sad and sordid commercial venture that would tiptoe its way quietly into the black hole of history if the captains of industry were to have their way. But the story must be recounted now. The leaded gas adventurers have profitably polluted the world on a grand scale and, in the process, have provided a model for the asbestos, tobacco, pesticide and nuclear power industries, and other twentieth-century corporate bad actors, for evading clear evidence that their products are harmful by hiding behind the mantle of scientific uncertainty.This is not just a textbook example of unnecessary environmental degradation, however. Nor is this history important solely as a cautionary retort to those who would doubt the need for aggressive regulation of industry, when commercial interests ask us to sanction genetically modified food on the basis of their own scientific assurances, just as the merchants of lead once did. The leaded gasoline story must also be read as a call to action, for the lead menace lives.Consider:

§ the severe health hazards of leaded gasoline were known to its makers and clearly identified by the US public health community more than seventy-five years ago, but were steadfastly denied by the makers, because they couldn't be immediately quantified;§ other, safer antiknock additives--used to increase gasoline octane and counter engine "knock"--were known and available to oil companies and the makers of lead antiknocks before the lead additive was discovered, but they were covered up and denied, then fought, suppressed and unfairly maligned for decades to follow;

§ the US government was fully apprised of leaded gasoline's potentially hazardous effects and was aware of available alternatives, yet was complicit in the cover-up and even actively assisted the profiteers in spreading the use of leaded gasoline to foreign countries;

§ the benefits of lead antiknock additives were wildly and knowingly overstated in the beginning, and continue to be. Lead is not only bad for the planet and all its life forms, it is actually bad for cars and always was;

§ for more than four decades, all scientific research regarding the health implications of leaded gasoline was underwritten and controlled by the original lead cabal--Du Pont, GM and Standard Oil; such research invariably favored the industry's pro-lead views, but was from the outset fatally flawed; independent scientists who would finally catch up with the earlier work's infirmities and debunk them were--and continue to be--threatened and defamed by the lead interests and their hired hands;

§ confronted in recent years with declining sales in their biggest Western markets, owing to lead phaseouts imposed in the United States and, more recently, Europe, the current sellers of lead additives have successfully stepped up efforts to market their wares in the less-developed world, efforts that persist and have resulted in some countries today placing more lead in their gasoline, per gallon, than was typically used in the West, extra lead that serves no purpose other than profit;

§ faced with lead's demise and their inevitable days of reckoning, these firms have used the extraordinary financial returns that lead additive sales afford to hurriedly fund diversification into less risky, more conventional businesses, while taking a page from the tobacco companies' playbook and simultaneously moving to reorganize their corporate structures to shield ownership and management from liability for blanketing the earth with a deadly heavy metal.

To read how some of the most prestigious companies in America duped the American public and its government into believing that leaded gasoline was a great innovation and harmless to boot, go to the complete article in The Nation. What happened then, has been repeated on other fronts, the latest being fossil fuel and global warming.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

For my Republican Friend Who Forwards Me Anything With Which He Agrees, 'Truthiness' Be Damned The News Herald, Panama CityPublished: Monday, August 4, 2014 at 10:45 AM.

A recent email had us thinking of Mark Twain, John Adams and Stephen Colbert.

Let’s start with Twain who wrote: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.”

That’s the right sentiment to describe the email which claims that Col. Oliver North warned then Senator Al Gore about Osama Bin Laden during congressional testimony in 1987. The hoax spread like wildfire after the Sept. 11 attacks. It was so popular that North debunked it himself by pointing out (among other things) that he was not questioned by Gore and that the terrorist he spoke about was Abu Nidal, not Osama Bin Laden.

An anonymous email forward is one thing but these “facts” get embarrassing when people post the things they know for sure on social networks. More than one person has had to apologize to their Facebook friends for sharing “facts” that weren’t facts.

Although there are hundreds of examples especially involving President Barack Obama (who, it turns out, was never a member of the Black Panther Party,) and his immediate predecessor George W. Bush. The photo showing Bush holding a book upside down might be funny but it’s fake.

Another of these that stuck out to us was the famous or infamous, “I’m Tired,” speech that is incorrectly attributed to Bill Cosby. Cosby may be tired but he never made any of the statements in that email.

The Cosby email, for many, had too much “truthiness” to ignore and for a time we often saw it in our inboxes and Facebook pages. Late Night comics Stephen Colbert invented truthiness. It describes those things we want to believe (mainly because they support our point of view) even when they are false. If it sounds good, if our gut says it is right but it just is not true, then it is truthiness.

Colbert’s wit was aimed, as it usually is, at politicians who do their best to polish and spin truthiness into votes on Election Day. There will surely be mountains of truthiness as the election draws near and we hope voters will do their homework when they are confronted by claims that sound too good to be false.

When people and politicians allow the facts to get rubbery it’s damaging to the entire political process. We can’t have honest disagreements using dishonest facts. “Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence,” Adams said as he defended British soldiers in Boston in 1770.

And while facts may be stubborn they can be slow to appear when we really need them even, it seems, on the internet where fact and fiction live side by side and are only a click away.

Twain, as he often did, nailed down the heart of the problem. “A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.”

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Since the beginning of this year, 52,000 children, as young as nine or ten, some younger, have swarmed across America’s southern border. They are escaping from Central American countries in turmoil, where drug lords terrorize neighborhoods and whole regions, bribe officials, force kids into gangs, and brutalize and kill anyone who opposes them. The kids are escaping from terror, abuse, abject poverty and hopelessness. For all practical purposes, they are refugees. They come without parents or guardians, clutching a hand-scrawled note with the telephone number or address of someone, somewhere in the U.S. who might help. It is a humanitarian crisis. The United States has shown itself ill-equipped to deal with it.

Horn of Africa, Photo by Sönke Kreft, GermanWatch

Think now of what could happen when climate change forces hundreds of millions, even billions of people to leave regions and countries where conditions will no longer support human life, places like; Darfur, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Southern Sudan, the Republic of Maldives, the Solomon Islands, the Marshall Islands, and other low-lying island States, some of which will disappear altogether, submerged under rising seas. In Bangladesh alone, it is estimated that 20-to-30 million people will be forced to migrate as a result of sea level rise due to climate change.

Having fewer resources and options for adaptation in place, children, women, the poor, older persons, and other vulnerable groups experience the greatest pressures to migrate as a result of environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change. These are people very much like those streaming over America’s southern borders now.

The U.S. Navy is already planning for increased humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR) as a result of climate change. The Navy believes that mass migrations precipitated by climate change will not only stretch its HA/DR capabilities, but could also result in instability and regional conflict requiring U.S. military assistance for the evacuation of U.S. citizens and the rendering of assistance in quelling unrest.

The International Organization for Migration says that “climate change is expected to trigger growing population movements within and across borders.” The UN Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees said that by 2050 up to a billion people globally could be forced to migrate. Where will they all go? Some studies suggest they’ll come here, to America. For example, mass migration to the United States from countries south of our border, like Mexico, may be triggered by climate-caused crop failures.

And yet America itself will not be immune to climate change and internal migration, such as happened during the Dust Bowl era, the largest migration in American history. By 1940 2.5 million people had moved out of the Plains states. They did not receive a warm welcome in places like California, where city police were sent to the border to repel the ‘invaders.’

Photo by Sandy Huffaker, Oracle, Arizona protest

Internal and cross-border migration driven by climate change will test America’s infrastructure, its mettle, and its morality. Will the tired, the poor, the homeless, the tempest-tossed be met at the borders with flags waved in welcome, or, as in Murrieta, California, and Oracle, Arizona, with xenophobic fervor? How will this ‘nation of immigrants’ prepare for and greet the multitudes displaced by a changing climate that we have done much to cause and little to abate? The answer will define forever who we are as a people.

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Paul Delaney (Cheney Free Press, 7/31/14) takes exception to the contention that “climate change is the culprit for longer, bigger and more intense wildfires.” According to Delaney, it’s all about forest management.

Well, Washington isn’t the only state fighting longer, bigger and more intense wildfires. Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming, and Utah are all fighting wildfires in triple-digit temperatures, in drought-stricken areas.

The largest of Oregon’s 18 major fires – known as the “Buzzard Complex” and located in the high desert central portion of the state – now totals 272,352 acres and is just 20 percent contained. Ranchers report cows and calves killed in the blaze, which was cause by a lightning strike.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center, we are experiencing an unusual wildfire season, with 32 large active fires going on, most in the Pacific Northwest; over 30,000 blazes nationwide. Governor Inslee said, “I know people have seen fires before. This is a different beast. This is a fire storm.”

According to the Oregon Climate Research Institute, drought-fueled wildfires, exacerbated by an increase in forest morbidity due to pest infestation, is projected as a major impact of global warming in the Pacific Northwest -- a forecast supported by the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington.

It’s past time for us to tackle global warming head on. The first priority is to price carbon so that it reflects the costs of carbon pollution. Costs for which we taxpayers end up footing the bill, whether it’s for crop loss due to drought, or declining shellfish harvest due to ocean acidification, or for fighting longer, bigger, more intense wildfires.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

After all was said and done, and after some additional due diligence
on my part, I've decided to throw my support behind George Cicotte. I've
voted Democrat for many years, but Democrats don't fare well in this district, and of all the Republican candidates on the ballot,
Cicotte is by far the most reasonable, and, I feel the most
knowledgeable about key issues affecting our state. This post summarizes the League of Women Voters 2014 WA-4 Candidate Forum held at Columbia Basin College on July 10th.

The candidate forum the night of July 10th, at CBC hosted by the League of Women Voters of Benton-Franklin counties was very well attended, and all twelve candidates for the 4th District congressional seat showed up. They were presented in phases, 4 at a time. Each were permitted an opening and closing statement. Questions for candidates (3 each) were presented randomly. The evening was thus interminable, but informative.

During the evening I talked individually with Dan Newhouse, Clint Didier, Josh Ramirez, George Cicotte, Gavin Seim (very briefly), and Richard Wright. Unfortunately, I didn't get to talk with Janea Holmquist, because she was surrounded by men taking 'selfies' with her.

The Sunnyside Daily Sun has a great "sound bites" piece on eight of the candidates, with photos and all.

My top picks (in alphabetical order ) for their performances at the forum were:

Dan Newhouse
Janea Holmquist
George Cicotte

Highlights:

Midbust, at Sunnyside Event

Kevin Midbust said in his opening, "I'm 27 and single. The only reason I'm here in a suit and tie, dressed like a criminal, is because of the League of Women Voters."

Gordon Allen Pross, who has run for office 8 times, in addressing a question on campaign finance reform, said, "I've always funded my own elections. That's why I've never been elected."

GUNS: Ironically, Clint Didier was randomly selected to give the first answer on universal background checks. He responded, "It's already illegal for convicted felons to own guns. Leave the rest of us alone!" He's giving away guns as part of his campaign.

Dan Newhouse said while he supported the 2nd Amendment, he would support strengthening the background check system to prevent felons and the mentally ill from getting guns.

Estakio Beltran said there were "already enough laws and background checks," and what was needed was better treatment for the mentally ill. Tony Sandoval's response was incoherent.

EDUCATION: Didier made an odd statement about the Common Core. "Common Core is a direct result of our involvement with the United
Nations," he said. "Ladies and gentlemen, I want the United States out
of the UN and the UN out of the United States." Huh?

CLIMATE CHANGE: The only question on this topic was postulated something like this, 'The Arctic Ice Cap is melting. Do you believe fossil fuel use contributes to global warming? Explain your position.' The question came up while Janea Holmquist, Josh Ramirez, Glen Stockwell, and Gorden Allen Pross were on stage.

Janea Holmquist neatly sidestepped the question, saying she believes in an "all the above" energy strategy, and stressed that the U.S. needs to achieve "energy independence." She stated that we are currently dependent on foreign sources of energy (actually, at 40%, our dependence on foreign oil is the lowest it's been since 1991). Holmquist said she supported the Keystone Pipeline, and "clean nuclear," whatever the hell that is.

Josh Ramirez said he believed CO2 contributed to warming and studies at PNNL supported that conclusion (Ramirez works at Washington River Protection Solutions). He said that the US needed to add more renewables to energy sources.

Glen Stockwell said he disagreed that CO2 was changing the climate, "The climate has changed throughout history," he said. He recommended hydrogen as a fuel, and "burning salt water." He made the statement quoted in today's Tri-City Herald about Al Gore being told to keep his mouth shut (Al Gore is to conservatives what Ali is to Sunni Muslims).

George Cicotte has said on his web site that, "We, as a District, can demonstrate that
nuclear energy presents a safe and reasonable alternative to high-priced
oil and natural gasses."

Whatever Gorden Allen Pross said isn't worth repeating, even if I could.

Generally, whatever questions arose for Kevin Midbust, the 27 year-old, self-proclaimed ladies man, answered by saying "Get rid of the Fed," and waving what he said was a $100 bill. Questions addressed by Gavin Seim were answered by Seim throwing in the term 'tyranny," and waving a copy of the constitution. Questions fielded by Janea Holmquist were addressed with 'verve.' Clint Didier made his responses with a stern face and now and then a bit of table pounding that managed to show off his two Superbowl rings.

I talked with Dan Newhouse after the forum. I complimented him on his prior service to the community as head of WA State Ag, and with the legislature. I thanked him for being willing to serve again. I told him my name and that I supported the Citizens' Climate Lobby (CCL). He'd heard about the carbon fee and dividend proposal. He couldn't recall how. I mentioned the Sunnyside Daily Sun. He said "Oh yeah!" He said he'd give the idea some thought. I also mentioned the UW study "Climate Impacts and Adaptation." He hadn't heard about it and asked me for a reference, which I gave him. I told him what the study said about future water demand and supply. He said we have a problem already. He sounded like a reasonable guy. However, I've heard since that he signed Grover Norquist's no tax pledge.

I congratulated George Cicotte on his "contract" (you can read it at his campaign web site). I talked with him about climate change and the caron fee and dividend approach to reducing GHG emissions. He told me that it might actually have a chance of being addressed in Congress. I learned subsequently that Cicotte refused to sign the Norquist pledge despite being pressured to do so by Norquist himself. "Anyone who signs that pledge is representing Norquist, not the people of the 4th Legislative District." In his remarks during the Q&A and in his closing he came across as speaking truthfully about what he thought could be achieved in Congress and refrained from saying something like "I'll repeal Obamacare" (Didier), just because he thought the conservative base wanted to hear it.

Josh Ramirez remembered me from the Tax Forum, and Richard Wright, whose campaign I worked on in 2006 remembered me as well. Both feel strongly that someone needs to get elected who is willing to work across the aisle. They support addressing climate change. That's encouraging, but their chances of being elected are slim to none.

I talked with Clint Didier about reducing GHG emissions and told him about the carbon fee and dividend approach to reducing emissions. I emphasized it wasn't a tax, "No money goes to the government!" Didier looked doubtful and said, "Huh." I switched gears and talked to him a little about football, and my time at the Pentagon and following the Washington Redskins. "Oh boy, those were the days -- Ronald Reagan and all that," Didier said, holding up his right hand with the two Superbowl rings on it. Didier has the Tea Party firmly behind him and definitely has the most signs up around the Tri-Cities. If that means anything, he has a good chance of being elected. And I didn't think it could get any worse than Doc.

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So long and thanks for all the fish

So long and thanks for all the fish
So sad that it should come to this
We tried to warn you all but oh dear?

You may not share our intellect
Which might explain your disrespect
For all the natural wonders that
grow around you

So long, so long and thanks
for all the fish

The world's about to be destroyed
There's no point getting all annoyed
Lie back and let the planet dissolve

Despite those nets of tuna fleets
We thought that most of you were sweet

So long, so long, so long and thanks for all the fish

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish (1984, ISBN 0-345-39183-7) is the fourth book of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy tetralogy written by Douglas Adams. Its title is the message left by the dolphins when they departed Planet Earth just before it was demolished to make way for a hyperspatial express route.

Blog Author

Richard Badalamente earned his BS in Aeronautical Engineering from the University of Southern California and MS–Human Factors and PhD-Behavioral Science from Texas Tech. He is an author at http://tinyurl.com/pakn8el