There are lots of properties and also lots of potential buyers.There is sure a sense of uncertainity among the builders and also the buyers on when to make the next move.It was evident that correction in RE prices have started to happen.

Requesting members to respond with their thoughts on the current trend.

In 2007 builders were able to sell their flats on the opening day itself.

Now this scenario has totally changed. They are announcing many sops to sell of their flats.

When it does not work they tend to reduce the price. Even then if the flat is not selling god only can save them.

thanks

chataara

I am still skeptical about whether even 50% of flats were sold.Maybe they were all booked on the first day.

The reason why I say this is, lots of ready to occupy flats are being put on block.These are not resales, its by the builders themselves.All of them are projects started in the boom period in between 2005-2007.

Many builders sell the flats that are in the ground, top floor and back side first and hold some to sell at a greater profit later.

These builders will be happy to give at the rate at which they launched in 2005 which is 40-50% less than the market rate and even more if the transaction is in Cash.The builders are still making good profits from the deal.

For people who want to buy for their self use, this is a very good bargain.

About me being a bear, I am a kind of person who believes that when in trouble one has to help themselves and cant expect anyone else to empathize with them..Its not fair to blame anyone or any circumstances for the decisions one makes.

It is one's responsibility to make a well-informed decision and accept gracefully the outcome of it however it may turn out to be.

I chose to tread cautiously even if it means missing out on many profits.

I give all the predictions, the same level of importance that i would give for weather forecasting.Its only directional.

If a news channel predicts its going to rain heavily, It wont hurt to be preapared and carry an umbrella while venturing out.Even if it doesnt rain, The umbrella can be used to provide yourself shade when it is very bright and sunny.

If you are buying a flat and that too from one of these HYPED builders who ask RIDICULOUS prices then you need to carry a Raincoat and an Umbrella. However that does not mean RE is falling? Rather builder profit margins will be eroded as they very well deserve to be. Go and see my post today on DONT SELL YOUR LAND FOR A SONG. The truth is many folks in Chennai need to realise that they should INVOLVE themselves in realestate transactions. They seem to be buying RE (read APARTMENTS) like buying a TV or a Fridge in Retail mode. Remember a HOME IS FOR LIVING not for RESELLING.Keep up your good work even as a bear.

In a locality where the market rate is 2000/sqft and guideline value is 1000/sqft, a premium builder would quote above 3000/sqft for a flat because of brand name and facilities like club, exclusive community etc..

Seller would claim that in 2400 sqft land 3600 sqft builtup can be achieved and by citing the possible end use and that flats in the locality are being sold for more than 3000/sqft with less UDS would justify the land rate

Some prospective buyer will fall for the price, thinking they are getting a ground of land to own for themselves and later they can build a house or flat and sell for a price not less than 4000/sqft.It seems a better decision buying the land by stretching a bit which also doubles as an investment when compared to buying a flat for the price which is just 500/sqft less.

when such a land transaction happens the market price increases to 3000/sqft.

Both land owners and builders increase and revise their price accordingly as and when market price changes.

The next seller B would peg higher at around 4500/sqft,Seller C at 6750/sqft and so on.

In a locality where the market rate is 2000/sqft and guideline value is 1000/sqft, a premium builder would quote above 3000/sqft for a flat because of brand name and facilities like club, exclusive community etc..

Seller would claim that in 2400 sqft land 3600 sqft builtup can be achieved and by citing the possible end use and that flats in the locality are being sold for more than 3000/sqft with less UDS would justify the land rate

Some prospective buyer will fall for the price, thinking they are getting a ground of land to own for themselves and later they can build a house or flat and sell for a price not less than 4000/sqft.It seems a better decision buying the land by stretching a bit which also doubles as an investment when compared to buying a flat for the price which is just 500/sqft less.

when such a land transaction happens the market price increases to 3000/sqft.

Both land owners and builders increase and revise their price accordingly as and when market price changes.

The next seller B would peg higher at around 4500/sqft,Seller C at 6750/sqft and so on.

Now the wheel seems to have stopped since the market seems to have reached its saturation point.

Would like to hear from people on the forum, whether my observation is correct or if anything is fundamentally and logically wrong with the argument.

Would Appreciate your responses.

the RE market and price trends defy logic leave alone mathematics.The prices of plots and flats sold at hithertho uninhabitable places at rates which do not follow any patern or justify the rates.the reason :it is the educated crowd which willnot believe a small player.

if the same location sells a plot by an unknown promoter who quotes, lets say, 100/sq ft and a reputed promoter offers one at 175/sq ft most of the IT crowd will go to the reputed person assuming quality and legality of the small player to be susceptible.exploiting this mentality the big builders started giving fantastic amenetiesand sold jungles as "self contained townships" eg hirco's oragadam ,cee dee yes chennaipattinam etc) and plots 100 kms away from chennai saying greenfield airport,samsung,nokia etc putting good looking bitumen roads(by the time people start living there the roads would cease to exist) coloured flag poles,a magnificient welcome arch etc.and an amazing brochure claiming tremendous growth in the 'jungle'.the educated crowd lapped it up and justified or even prided their decisions bcoz of the price increase fuelled by the boom.

i still dont understand people buying flats at oragadam,thiruporur,sripermbundur (where few years back people were selling farm houses with 5 coconut,2 guava,5 teak tree saplings)and other far off places.coming to the point when a flat was sold at 3000/- at oragadam the price of 3600/- at east tambaram became easy to digest and they were priced accordingly this made a benchmark in that locality and land prices adjusted to flat prices.and the stupidity of assuming same price at all areas in the locality. like when advt says velachery or near MRTS we start assuming same rate pan velachery and nearby madipakkam,pallikarnai etc.

simply put the builders and promoters started quoting fancy rates at far off places and sold them to investors who did not even visit the place ,this led to city places look reasonable at higher prices this led to the current increase.

I am not sure that we can analyze and predict the RE graph like it is done in the stock market(tech anlyss).but if we think these prices in established localities to roll back as easily they increased,its a long shot.school vans increased rates from 400/ to 500/ bcoz of fuel rate hike, refuses to reduce the rate back to 400/- inspite of fuel prices rolling back.

In a locality where the market rate is 2000/sqft and guideline value is 1000/sqft, a premium builder would quote above 3000/sqft for a flat because of brand name and facilities like club, exclusive community etc..

Seller would claim that in 2400 sqft land 3600 sqft builtup can be achieved and by citing the possible end use and that flats in the locality are being sold for more than 3000/sqft with less UDS would justify the land rate

Some prospective buyer will fall for the price, thinking they are getting a ground of land to own for themselves and later they can build a house or flat and sell for a price not less than 4000/sqft.It seems a better decision buying the land by stretching a bit which also doubles as an investment when compared to buying a flat for the price which is just 500/sqft less.

when such a land transaction happens the market price increases to 3000/sqft.

Both land owners and builders increase and revise their price accordingly as and when market price changes.

The next seller B would peg higher at around 4500/sqft,Seller C at 6750/sqft and so on.

Builder who bought from Seller A will conveniently manipulate by not applying FSI on the rate 3000/sqft at which the land was bought, but against the market price in the locality at that time.

Therefore,If the asking price in the market is 6750/sqft(Seller C asking price) a builder would quote

6750/1.5 + 1200 = 5700/sqft

one can see, this is a never ending cycle that keeps continuing without any control or regulation.What drives it is also the same Demand/supply dynamics.

I feel this is one of the major reasons how the price rose by 200-400% in the span of just 3-4 years.It was instigated by the cartel of premium builders/Bankers....

Now the wheel seems to have stopped since the market seems to have reached its saturation point.

Would like to hear from people on the forum, whether my observation is correct or if anything is fundamentally and logically wrong with the argument.

Would Appreciate your responses.

"Not many know the way to calculate rate/sqft of flat from the land price.I learned this method only through this forum, courtesy Nataraj."This is what Nabhishek states in his post. Honestly I feel sad if what he says is true. And when someone like Nabhishek states it, it looks probably true.The main reason I am writing on this board is to educate folks on this great anomaly particularly in Chennai where realestate builders LITERALLY CON both the land owner and the flat buyer investing nothing much from his hands.Finally I was really surprised when one man who claims he is Wise calls that Conning as BUILDER MARGIN in another thread.

I expect this trend to continue for minimum 2-3 months, during when no new projects(with all approvals, no pre-launches) will be anounced at affordable prices,no significant sales happening in the outskirts, on-going projects progress will get delayed, lots of resale properties and ready to occupy properties will be available on sale and rentals will reduce sharply.

Requesting members to share on what they expect to happen next in the coming months and any appreciation/reduction in prices known to them.

I believe the stagnation period is over and price correction has began, Hoping to use this thread to capture the same.

We will have to wait till elections are over, untill then prices will stagnate.There is high possibility of second hand flats coming for sale, mainly due to defaults,by home loan borrowers, as IT seems to get started for its difficult/worst times.

Another set of projects and prices from IDBI Homes 2009 Fair - Chennai

The prices are still holding up with meagre 200-500/sqft discounts.

I expect this trend to continue for minimum 2-3 months, during when no new projects(with all approvals, no pre-launches) will be anounced at affordable prices,no significant sales happening in the outskirts, on-going projects progress will get delayed, lots of resale properties and ready to occupy properties will be available on sale and rentals will reduce sharply.

Requesting members to share on what they expect to happen next in the coming months and any appreciation/reduction in prices known to them.

I believe the stagnation period is over and price correction has began, Hoping to use this thread to capture the same.

Are you telling me that above prices are discounted? If that is the case then I should say a flat in T.Nagar can be priced for Rs 40000 psft!!!

I meant they were offering that much of discount on the listed price at the stall.I feel the prices are still absurdly high.

Do check the price of TNHB flat in Vyasarpadi. Govt pricing. 2930psft approx. Now dont tell me prices are high, though a person like me holding land in more vantage points will call it high and living in Bangalore will look at flat buyers in Madras as if I am looking at idiots. However to buy a flat in Vyasarpadi as per TNHB advt in today's Hindu is much costlier than a flat I can get you in places 5km from MG Road. So much for your FSI, hiked flat prices, silly system and idiotic Tamil politicians and practices. I am planning to leave this lunatic bear board, like I said, filled with foxes looking at grapes.Bye to you Nabhishek.

Do check the price of TNHB flat in Vyasarpadi. Govt pricing. 2930psft approx. Now dont tell me prices are high, though a person like me holding land in more vantage points will call it high and living in Bangalore will look at flat buyers in Madras as if I am looking at idiots. However to buy a flat in Vyasarpadi as per TNHB advt in today's Hindu is much costlier than a flat I can get you in places 5km from MG Road. So much for your FSI, hiked flat prices, silly system and idiotic Tamil politicians and practices. I am planning to leave this lunatic bear board, like I said, filled with foxes looking at grapes.Bye to you Nabhishek.

Dear friend,

You should continue to contribute to this forum, as a person with quite a good knowledge on various subjects/issues. If you decide to leave, it will be a great loss for the members and guests of this forum.

Do check the price of TNHB flat in Vyasarpadi. Govt pricing. 2930psft approx. Now dont tell me prices are high, though a person like me holding land in more vantage points will call it high and living in Bangalore will look at flat buyers in Madras as if I am looking at idiots. However to buy a flat in Vyasarpadi as per TNHB advt in today's Hindu is much costlier than a flat I can get you in places 5km from MG Road. So much for your FSI, hiked flat prices, silly system and idiotic Tamil politicians and practices. I am planning to leave this lunatic bear board, like I said, filled with foxes looking at grapes.Bye to you Nabhishek.

Do check the price of TNHB flat in Vyasarpadi. Govt pricing. 2930psft approx. Now dont tell me prices are high, though a person like me holding land in more vantage points will call it high and living in Bangalore will look at flat buyers in Madras as if I am looking at idiots. However to buy a flat in Vyasarpadi as per TNHB advt in today's Hindu is much costlier than a flat I can get you in places 5km from MG Road. So much for your FSI, hiked flat prices, silly system and idiotic Tamil politicians and practices. I am planning to leave this lunatic bear board, like I said, filled with foxes looking at grapes.Bye to you Nabhishek.

Dear Nataraj,

I completely agree with you on the TNHB flats, In december 2008 I pointed a similar advt where TNHB were offering flats in sholingnallur.It was LIG flats of arnd 450 sqft at 2230 rs/sqft.

Most of these flats/plots are alloted through recommendations from MP/MLA/Ministers, which is resold at higher price.

The rules and policies are not End user-friendly.The government has to stop backing The RE Cartel and Banks.

Instead of thinking what additional sops to give to the builders and how to reduce the interest rates of home loans.The focus, should be into developing better infrastructure and self sustained townships.

With the elections nearing we can see lots of loyalties shiftings and priorities changing.There will be huge pressure on the political parties, to liquidify the assets for spending for the elections.

Already the foreign investors have pulled out, banks have started to exert more vigil in handling RE, buyers are in wait and watch mode.Finally, The pullout of black money invested in RE would show whats really holding up the prices.

Nataraj, I request you to please continue writing here and share your insights and experiences.We can understand if you cant contribute often, but dont abandon the forum altogether.Your presence and views helps readers weigh the possibilities, alternatives and understand RE Investing better.I really appreciate and thank you for all the time and effort you have taken to educate us so far.