CIS/Europe - Risk Forecast Q1/2018

Europe in the first quarter of 2018 will be coping with the results of elections past and be in anticipation of polls to come.

Spain will likely see renewed efforts towards Catalonian independence and thus maintained animosity between Madrid and Barcelona after the regional elections in December 2017 failed to bring a clear victory for either side. Meanwhile, the outcome of the general elections in Italy is far from certain. The Eurosceptic Five Star Movement is leading in the polls, but there are also fears that a coalition of far-right parties may repeat the success it had in the Sicilian regional elections, which could lead to increased tensions in Italian society. On the other hand, the March presidential vote in Russia is hardly expected to bring any surprises. With an approval rate of over 80 per cent, Vladimir Putin will most likely be re-elected, but demonstrations against corruption and the political conditions in the country are possible.

The first quarter will be the start to a challenging year in Europe, particularly for the European Union.