A break with the Arab Spring

For nearly three weeks, from 25 January until the former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak ended his three-decade reign by transferring power to the Supreme Council of the Armed forces (SCAF) on 12 February, the world watched in awe as the Egyptian people transformed their dream of freedom into a reality.

And yet that was a dream short-lived. Repression quickly returned under the military rule of the former Minister of Defense-turned president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi has created a breeding ground for youth to turn to violence, as they could no longer see a place for themselves in the institutions of governance nor trust the democratic process that was violently aborted in Rabaa.

The Rabaa massacre represents a break with the post-Arab Spring trajectory that began with promise and today finds it establishing repression as the new status quo

Police forces continue to torture detainees systematically with impunity. A 2015 Amnesty report on domestic, public and state violence against women in Egypt was called, "Circles of hell". Over 1,250 people have disappeared in recent years about whom there is no information. At least 240 political activists and protesters were arrested between April and September of last year on charges either relating to online posts, which authorities deemed "insulting" to the president, or for participating in unauthorised protests.

The government has also intensified its crackdown on press freedoms. Over two-dozen journalists remain in prison. The state has blocked 434 news and information websites (including Mada Masr and Daily News Egypt) and continues to block -and regularly filters- Egyptian users' content.

Furthermore, the president has renewed and extended the 1958 Emergency Law that gives unchecked powers to security forces to arrest and detain and allows the government to impose media censorship and order forced evictions.

The flotation of the Egyptian pound in late 2016 nearly halved its exchange value from $0.112 to 0.057, leading food prices to skyrocket as inflation reached almost 35 percent. Among the lessons learned from military coups that occurred in Latin America, Africa and Asia, is that military regimes consistently fail to foster economic development, rendering them incapable of devising and implementing successful economic models.

When a military, like that of Egypt, is both entrenched in the deep state and in the economy, it operates in the best interest of the military and not of the people. Economic schemes like the expansion of the Suez Canal did not deliver on their promises, and left Egyptians in a weaker economic state. And while the regime was celebrating the expansion, nine political prisoners died in state custody.

Phases of violence

With no avenue for Egypt's disenfranchised youth to voice their political discontent -and the state choosing repression over engagment- places like Egypt may become recruiting grounds for violence. Violence and terror occur in a progression.

A woman tries to stop a military bulldozer near Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque (AFP)

The first stage occurs when attacks increase on symbols of the state - the police, the military and the security apparatus. The second stage involves attacks on civilians who appear to be sympathetic to the regime, and the third stage involves targeting civilians - in general - to make life so unbearable for the average citizen, that they begin to call on the regime for change.

With last winter’s terror attacks on mosques and religious leaders who seemed to support the regime, a phase two had been entered - attacks on those who support the regime had begun. The question is what will be done to prevent the start of phase three.

An Uncertain Future

The beauty of the 25 January revolution was the seemingly spontaneous, pluralistic and peaceful nature it took. However, after years of increasing repression in Egypt, as the level of frustration escalates, military repression with violence may lead to the militarisation of the youth.

The question remains of the lessons learned. What the Rabaa massacre showed the world is that thousands can be killed and a revolution ended with no political or economic consequence to the regime. But what is the cost to the people?

There will be another push for change at some point. There will be a counter-revolution, and the impunity witnessed in Rabaa signals that it just might not be peaceful.

-Dalia Fahmy is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Long Island University and Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Policy.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.

Photo: Demonstrators with Egyptian Americans for Democracy and Human Rights hold a rally to mark the anniversary of the Rabaa Massacre in Cairo in August, 2014 (AFP).