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Last week it seemed like there was an article written every day about how close (or not) major banks were getting to a settlement with state attorney generals nation-wide.

Now it looks like we are actually delving into final settlement territory. However, the deal that's taking shape isn't what many people expected—they expected banks to pay their tab, walk away, and continue business as usual.

When I first heard about the foreclosure settlement, I thought it might contain a broad waiver for everything, including the tax evasion issues, the fair lending issues, securitization, and all the other things on that list above. If they did that, that would be TARPx10. My only point about this deal is that it appears to have been effectively negotiated down from a bloodcurdling outrage to whatever it is now, which is probably something far less than that: It may still be a serious underpay, but it's not the unreal, criminal giveaway it was originally meant to be.

And it still leaves plenty of room for criminal investigation and reform. The people who organized and supervised the robosigning could and should still be targets of criminal prosecution, deal or no deal: This won't change that.

Criminal prosecution is the kicker here, because it's really what a lot of Americans are angry about—the economy collapsed and no one went to jail.

Now Schneiderman is at the head of a Department of Justice "working group" that aims to get to the root causes of the mortgage crises, and take people to task for them. This deal, if passed, leaves him and his team of four other lawyers, plenty of room to do that.

And if they hand Obama a few wins, he'll take those on the campaign trail with him—definitely a big deal.