Updated 1:08 pm, Monday, August 11, 2014

Have you noticed? Plenty of wild weather rolls through the Capital Region.

From thunderstorms that pack mighty winds and drop nickel-size hail to paralyzing snow and cold to surging floods, our chunk of the state gets a range of weather that affects daily life and sometimes puts us in harm's way.

And the forecast is for more of the same. Experts say that climate change will trigger continuing severe weather.

So where in the Capital Region are these events occurring? And what trends are becoming evident?

Its database of every storm tracked since 1951 is now online and includes weather recorded by local weather service branches that caused injury, significant property damage, disrupted commerce, broke records or were in some other way extraordinary.

The NCDC expanded this list in 1996 to include 48 types of events, each tracked to the county where it occurred, with a detailed narrative.

About 5,700 significant weather events were logged in those counties in that span.

Not all of the 48 types of events tracked by the NCDC affected that area (volcanic ashfall, for example). The Times Union combined similar events in different categories, creating eight groups of events that impact the area the most: snow (which includes heavy snow, blizzards, winter storms and winter weather); wind damage (high, strong or thunderstorm winds); hail; lightning; flash floods or flooding; extreme heat; extreme cold, wind chill or freeze; and tornadoes. The findings shed light on which counties have the most severe weather, what years were the worst in the Capital Region and what trends occurred.

As technology has advanced, severe weather events are tracked and recorded more accurately than they were 10 or 20 years ago. This means that large increases in certain areas aren't entirely attributable to a rise in those severe weather events. Some of the increases can be credited to improved weather tracking methods and radar.

But that doesn't mean the Capital Region isn't having more severe weather than usual.

That trend seems likely to increase in years to come, Thorncroft said. "The number of intense rainfall events in the Northeast has increased more than anywhere else in the country, by 70 percent," Thorncroft said. "Essentially, the atmosphere is warmer with more water vapor, which increases these trends."

But it's not just thunderstorms and heavy rainfall that could be increasing. Thorncroft said one of his colleagues has theorized that with more Arctic snowmelt there could be more snowfall coming, because more water is being let into the atmosphere.

In fact, according to the NCDC data, snow is by far the region's most significant weather event.

"It is the most reliable weather event we see," Thorncroft said.

The data sets on page A11 break down what types of events hit the Capital Region most often, when and where they've peaked and how they've changed over the years. The information helps illustrate not only the types of weather, but it also offers a window into how much better these events are tracked.

Significant events

Charts below reflect Times Union analysis of every significant weather event in 11 counties in and around the Capital Region logged into the National Climate Data Center's database since 1996

Total events each year, ranked from most to least

1. 2008: 642

2. 2011: 558

3. 2013: 425

4. 2009: 405

5. 2007: 393

6. 2010: 376

7. 2012: 328

8. 2005: 313

9. 2003: 274

10. 2004: 271

11. 2000: 248

12. 2006: 222

13. 1996: 210

14. 2002: 209

15. 1998: 190

16. *2014: 180

17. 1999: 162

18. 1997: 150

19. 2001: 142

*2014 numbers only include data from Jan. 1 to April 30, 2014

Total events in each county between 1996 and 2014, ranked from most to least

1. Saratoga County: 732

2. Rensselaer County: 637

3. Columbia County: 628

4. Albany County: 614

5. Greene County: 554

6. Schenectady County: 500

7. Washington County: 479

8. Warren County: 444

9. Fulton County: 425

10. Schoharie County: 340

11. Montgomery County: 328

Total of each type of event in all counties combined between 1996 and 2014, ranked from most to least

1. Heavy snow, winter weather or winter storm: 2,033

2. Wind damage: 1,194

3. Flooding or flash flooding: 864

4. Hail: 654

5. Extreme cold, wind chill, freeze or frost: 641

6. Extreme heat : 184

7. Lightning strikes: 96

8. Tornado damage: 32

A Capital Region weather event primer

Snowfall is the most prevalent weather nemesis

Though the warming effects of climate change have been well documented, snow still disrupts day-to-day life in the Capital Region more frequently than any other kind of weather. The 2,033 reports of severe or record-setting weather involving snow — categorized as heavy snowfall, winter weather, winter storm or a blizzard — account for about 35 percent of all severe weather recorded in the 11-county region between 1996 and 2014. In that period, there were more severe snow events than flooding, hail, extreme heat, lightning strikes and tornado damage combined.

Fallout from snowstorms — such as snarled traffic and closed businesses and schools — is, however, usually less catastrophic than damage from flash floods, thunderstorms or tornadoes.

Winter of 2014 was cold — very cold

Last winter was relentlessly frigid, but consider this for some perspective: In the first four months of 2014, the 11 counties have already recorded 91 instances of extreme cold, wind chill, freeze or frost. Though those numbers only go through April, those 91 frosty events are already the second-most ever recorded for any single year in the region since 1996. The most cold-related events ever recorded was 116, in 2010. In Albany, the average temperatures in January, February and March were three, four and seven degrees below their respective monthly averages.

Flooding from Tropical Storm Irene was historic

NCDC numbers not only back this up, but also help illustrate just how unusual flooding from Irene was. Irene, which crashed through the Capital Region on Aug. 28, 2011, triggered flash floods from small towns in Greene and Schoharie counties to the banks of the Mohawk River in Schenectady.

In 2011, 143 floods or flash floods were recorded in the 11-county area by the NCDC, the most tallied by a wide margin. No other year has topped 100 flood-related events.

Irene accounted for more than 70 percent of flood events in 2011.

The second-highest number of flood events recorded were 94 in 1996, when floodwaters inundated many of the same areas in Schoharie and other counties that were ravaged by Irene.

On average, the 11-county area has about 47 flood events per year, a number that has been consistent since the weather service began cataloging the data in 1996.

Irene is also the only event in the NCDC database categorized as a hurricane, tropical storm or tropical depression to affect the area in that time frame.

After blizzards, watch out for strong wind

While snowstorms are the most frequent severe weather events, extreme winds are second. Since 1996, our area has had 1,194 events involving damage from severe winds, usually downed trees or power lines.

The majority of theose winds are classified under "thunderstorm winds," an indicator of thunderstorm frequency for a given year.

In 2013, 166 instances of wind damage were recorded in the area, the most since 1996. The second-highest was 136 wind events in 2006.

It's important to note, however, that tracking wind damage has advanced markedly because of technology. Of the 1,194 wind events recorded in the NCDC database, 1,122 have occurred since 2004. An increase in the number of storms in that period and advanced methods of recording greatly buoy the totals in recent years.

More storms; lightning strikes not as frequent

While most severe weather trends have increased in recent years, lightning strikes — in which lighting hits and damages a building or person — have dropped sharply. Of the 96 lightning strikes in the 11-county region recorded by the weather service 1996, 76 occurred between 1996 and 2004. The NCDC database recorded just 20 strikes from 2005 through April 2014, or an average of slightly more than two strikes per year. From 1996 to 2004, there were at least five lightning events recorded every year except 2003, when there were four.

Freezing fog? One instance, in Warren County

The only instance of what is categorized as "freezing fog" in all of New York state in the NCDC database occurred in Warren County on Jan. 2, 2000. What is freezing fog? Pretty much what it sounds like — a frozen mist. The weather service defines it as when supercooled water droplets are low to the ground and remain in a liquid state until they contact a surface, then freeze. The NCDC's narrative of the freezing fog event in Warren County says it caused "black ice and numerous vehicular accidents. Some minor injuries were reported, but no major ones."

2008 was a year to remember, hard to forget

From 1996 to 2013, no other year had more severe weather events in the area than 2008. There were 642 severe weather events in the 11-county area that year. That's nearly 100 more than the second-most-active year, 2011, when 558 events were logged.

2008's high totals were led by a whopping 313 snow or winter storm events. That December the Capital Region was frozen by a historic ice storm that knocked out power to tens of thousands of homes. Snow and winter weather have not topped the 200-event threshold in any other year. 2008 also had the second-most hail events since 1996 (87) and the third-highest number of wind damage events (128).

Weather events per square mile

Saratoga County's 732 severe weather events since 1996 are the most for a county by a good margin. But, at 844 square miles, Saratoga County is one of the largest counties in our area. The bigger the area, the more places severe weather can occur.

Measuring events in each county per square mile gives a different picture of what areas are the hardest-hit relative to their size.

Since 1996, Saratoga County has had about 0.87 severe weather event for every square mile in the county. That ranks fifth in a per-square-mile analysis of the 11-county region.

Schenectady County, the smallest county in the area at 210 square miles, has had 500 severe weather events since 1996, or 2.38 events for every square mile in the county. That is by far the most in the region. Albany County, which covers 533 square miles and has had 614 events since 1996, is a distant No. 2 at 1.15 events per square mile.

Tornado frequency rises, but twisters still rare

Tornadoes have occurred in and around the Capital Region for decades, though they have been more frequent in the past five years. The NCDC database contains 10 instances of tornado damage since 2010. Before that, the area went five years without any twister damage recorded by the NCDC. Meteorologists are quick to note that tornadoes are still extremely rare. With a such a small sample size, it is hard to say an increase of one of two events per year is an indication of a trend.

Also, 10 records of tornado damage doesn't mean there have been 10 different tornadoes, but 10 different areas that reported damage from a tornado. The typical tornado affects two or three towns. (In 2003, a massive EF 2 tornado that touched down in Greene, Columbia and Schenectady counties accounted for 11 different instances of tornado damage).

Montgomery and Schenectady counties have been more prone to tornadoes than any other part of the area — six different tornadoes have stuck those adjacent counties since 2010, including a May 22 EF 3 twister that tore across Duanesburg, one of the strongest twisters ever recorded in the area, that has yet to be logged into the NCDC's database.