The Looming Black Swan

By Jeff Binkley:The Black Swan.
A "Black Swan" event leading to a substantial market correction is just around the corner. At least that's what an increasing number of market prognosticators have been saying. With that in mind, I thought it might be useful to you, Dear Reader, if we brushed up on what a "Black Swan" event is. I also gazed a little into my long broken crystal ball and will share a theory with you as to where the next "Black Swan" may come from… and what will be some of the signals of its impending arrival.The theory of black swan events as developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who happens to be one my favorite authors, is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The educated European ofComplete Story »

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By Brandon Pilzner A black swan event, developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book??The Black Swan, is a metaphor that explains in logical hindsight the reasoning to an unexpected event which has a major impact on society but should have been foreseen. Developed nations saw a black swan event - the 2007-2008 global financial ...

By Michael J. Ray:
The term “Black Swan” was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb who was a Wall Street trader and a finance professor. The definition of the term is an event that is well beyond what one would normally expect given a certain situation and also would be extremely difficult to predict. Needless to say, when applied to the equity markets, the Black Swan event is usually followed by precipitous volatility which can leave an investor’s capital dangerously exposed.

Yesterday on CNBC, Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer for fund manager Universa Investments L.P., made a scary prediction. He warned that the S&P 500 could lose 40% of its value in the next couple of years. He went on to point out several facts and figures that led to this prediction. He specifically said, "there is a 20% chance of a well-over 40% correction in the S&P 500 within the next few years." CNBC even had viewers voting on this black swan event. So will the S&P 500 drop down to 760?

Michael Panzner submits: If Nassim Nicholas Taleb (and others) posit that an outcome once considered extremely rare is increasingly likely, does that mean a certain type of swan has changed its colors?

NEW DELHI: One more bullish view got added in favour of bitcoin last week. This time it came from Nassim Nicholas Taleb, an American-Lebanese academic and hedge fund manager, who believes that bitcoin can touch $1,00,000 and there is no way to properly short the bitcoin 'bubble'. One of the top modern philosophers, Taleb is known for predicting black swan events.

By Benzinga:
By Brandon Pilzner
A black swan event is a metaphor that explains in logical hindsight the reasoning to an unexpected event which has a major impact on society but should have been foreseen. Developed nations saw a black swan event – the 2007-2008 global financial crash – where the likes of AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie May, and Freddie Mac all collapsed under the immense pressure of a liquidity crunch.