London Plan Alterations: London to Grow by 2 Million, London Plan will be 1/2 million Short

The further alterations, SHMA and SHLAA published today focussed on housing growth.

Headline figures:

The central population projection used in preparing this Alteration therefore anticipates London’s population rising from 8.2 million in 2011, to:
 9.20 million in 2021;
 9.54 million in 2026;
 9.84 million in 2031; and
 10.11 million in 2036.

From the current number of London households (3.28 million in 2011 mid-2007), the period is likely to see growth to:
 3.74 million households by 2012 2011
 3.93 million by 2026 2016
 4.10 million by 2031 2021; and
 4.26 million by 2036 2026.

That’s 4300,o00 additional houses than in the current London Plan.

So what is the objective need?

the central projection in the SHMA indicates that London will require between approximately
49,000 (2015-2036) and 62,000 (2015-2026) more homes a year.

And the SHlAA shows

at least 420,000 additional homes or 42,000 per annum(2015-2025)

So we have a shortfall in London of 227,000 homes till 2025, and likely over half a million by 2036.

So what is the Mayor doing about it?

Rather incredulously the plan in policy 3.3 sets a target of 42,000 homes a year anyway even though the SHLAA says it could not be met.

The plan does not say anything about Duty to Cooperate discussions beyond the London Plan boundary.

Now if this was any plan outside London by now planning consultants would be rolling in the aisles as this would have ‘unsound plan’ written all over it. It undershoots objectively assessed need bu half a million and has no evidence that its wholly aspirational targets can be met within its SHLAA. However the London Plan based on now antiquated legislation does not have a binding inspectors panel decisio, only a recommendation to the Mayor which he can and does ignore. The London Plan of course as a matter of National Policy of coursse has to comply with the NPPF.

This means that if the approved London plan retains such a gargantuan shortfall every Non-London authority with Metropolitan Green Belt will be told by developers at their plan inquiries that under the NPPF they have to meet unmet need from London. This would mean massive pressure to lose Green Belt to half a million homes. An area about half the size of Surrey.

I guess that facing this there will be massive objections and representations under the DTC by rest of south east Green Belt authorities. I think a challenge in the courts to a plan setting such evidence and unrelasitic targets is certain, possibly even by the Boroughs, if as is more than likely the panel rejects them. The SoS may also come under challenge if he does not exercise his powers to direct changes to the plan.

The result of this failure to plan London and the rest of the South East together will be that no authority in the whole of the South East will have an ip to date plan and the death as a result of the plan led system in this region.

Boris have vision and pull your finger out, commission a regional planning study, a new Abercrombie, now on how this half a million overspill could be met both inside and outside London.

9 thoughts on “London Plan Alterations: London to Grow by 2 Million, London Plan will be 1/2 million Short”

Andrew, this is all very interesting. But the SHLAA identifies capacity for 420,000 up to 2025, so it’s not quite right to say that the Mayor sets a target of 42,000 a year when the SHLAA doesn’t find the land. It does. It just leaves the question of what happens when you get to 2025 and the shortfall has grown by another 270,000 by that point.

The SHLAA shows capacity for 42,000 a year for ten years from 2015- which suggests it is achievable and that seems to be the basis for the 42,000 a year target. But the Alterations actually quote the 49,000 a year need figure. So there is a 7,000 a year gap.

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