C. P. Chandrasekhar’s Blog

The return of inflation, even if moderate, at a time when India is experiencing a normal monsoon and after a long period of inflation-targeted monetary policy is surprising. Unexpected_Inflation (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 29, 2016.)

As technological change threatens many different kinds of jobs, the significance of direct face-to-face interaction required in much care work means that it is unlikely to be as adversely affected. What does this mean for the future requirements of care workers? Future_Care_Work (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 15, 2016.)

Financial liberalization, aimed in the first instance at attracting foreign finance capital to India, is the centrepiece of the neoliberal growth strategy India chose to adopt 25 years back. That was indeed a dramatic change. In 1947, controls on and regulation of foreign investment were seen as prerequisites for ensuring autonomy from predatory foreign capital, and strengthening the political freedom that had been won. Since 1991, however, economic success has been measured by neoliberal advocates by the confidence that foreign investors have in the Indian economy, reflected in the volume of cross-border inflows of foreign capital, especially foreign finance capital.…

After having retreated from retail lending in the years since 2005-06, banks burdened by NPAs in areas like infrastructure seem to be returning to the retail market. How far can this go? Retail_Lending (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on August 1, 2016.)

July 1991 is widely seen as a watershed month in Indian economic policy making. That was when the Indian government openly declared that it was unwinding the interventionist regime which had been in place since Independence, involving controls on economic agents, regulation of markets, a large public sector and an a priori plan as to how economic resources should be allocated. In the period to follow, policy, it was then argued, would dismantle this excessively interventionist framework, and establish and support a system driven by private initiative and relatively unfettered markets, with minimal regulation and control. The State was to…

In the fourth round of what has become a periodic exercise, the All India Bank Employees Association (AIBEA), the “oldest and largest” trade union in the industry, has released a list of 5,610 wilful defaulters on debt they owe commercial banks. In the AIBEA’s view the failure to reduce, let alone prevent, such defaults is badly damaging bank balance sheets. The fact that attempts at recovery have also been tardy and quite unsuccessful is not helping either. The official listing of suit-filed accounts of wilful defaulters disseminated through the Credit Information Bureau (India) Ltd, reports 6,081 cases involving loans totaling…

The economic pressures that may have driven the Brexit vote are also evident in other big European nations. So to survive, the EU must rethink its template for economic policies. European_Union_Worried (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 18, 2016.)

Recognizing bad assets and writing them off may not resolve the banking problem, since the new financial order requires banks to lend to those who seem more prone to default. Banking_Problem (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on July 4, 2016.)

lobal growth rates of the last five years are similar to those in the past, but now they are accompanied by unprecedented monetary expansion that seems to have little impact. Global_New_Normal (Download the full text in PDF format) ( This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 20, 2016.)

As interested observers focus on the bad loans, accumulating in the books of India’s commercial banks, the implications it has for lending behaviour and growth are less explored. Bad_Loans (Download the full text in PDF format) (This article was originally published in the Business Line on June 6, 2016.)