What a difference a week makes. Just seven days ago, I was confident that Scotland were going to have a good Six Nations and be serious contenders for the first time in years.

This could still happen, of course. We are only one game in, but my confidence levels have taken quite a dive. Yet again, Scotland failed to deliver on the first weekend of the Six Nations and, all week, I have tried to analyse why.

There must be some reason, whether it’s physical or mental, that Scotland have won only one of their opening fixtures since the Championship’s inception in 2000.

Scotland lock Richie Gray is beaten to a lineout by George Kruis during last weekend's Calcutta Cup clash

There are some genuine reasons such as, other than in 2000, we have never played Italy in the first game. The majority of the matches have been against either England or France, which is tough going — especially when they are away from Murrayfield.

But it can’t just be bad luck as we have beaten both England and France at Murrayfield at later stages in certain years — so is it a mental thing?

Is the step up from playing for Glasgow and Edinburgh too much for the players to make in one week?

Share this article

Share

It shouldn’t be, because the other teams seem to be able to hit the ground running when the Six Nations gun is fired.

The Welsh, Irish — and even the Italians last week — coped with everything that goes with playing international rugby: greater intensity, faster game, bigger hits, huge media scrutiny and massive expectations.

Some of these are physical, some are mental.

The Scotland players coped fine during the World Cup, when they had to watch the opening weekend of the competition, before they made their bow against Japan in Gloucester the following midweek.

Scotland captain Greig Laidlaw speaks to his troops before their clash with England at Murrayfield

But the players did not play a club game the week before, they had been in camp all summer, so they got their physical and mental preparation right. For some reason, they have not been able to replicate this when it comes to the Six Nations.

It is a conundrum that the past six Scotland coaches have not been able to solve, so answers on a postcard please...

But I do expect Scotland to be better today because of what happened last week. The players will be back up to international level again in terms of intensity, accuracy, execution and decision-making, which let them down badly last week.

The key today is to generate quick ball. It is what all teams are looking to create in attack and it is what all teams are striving to stop in defence.

Scotland No 8 David Denton (right) will be central to his side's chances against Wales in Cardiff

This is the game within a game that will always determine the ultimate winner. England won this battle last week, especially in the second half when their defence got stronger and strangled the life out of the Scottish attack.

The finger was pointed at Finn Russell for the breakdown of Scotland’s attack, but it’s tough to get any momentum in Test rugby off slow ball because the defence can reorganise and dominate.

The way that Scotland can generate quick ball today is by reverting to the high-tempo off-loading game we saw them play in the World Cup.

We need to see players getting in behind the defence, freeing up their arms, and off-loading to players coming from deep in support. This asks questions of a defence because there is no time for it to be organised, so gaps appear.

Scotland fly-half Finn Russell works on his place kicking during his side's captain's run on Friday

The back three for Scotland of Tommy Seymour, Sean Maitland and Stuart Hogg are great at running the support angles off forwards or backs, but it only works if they can get the ball moving at pace.

There will be contact, this is not basketball, so this is an area where Scotland need to greatly improve from last week. Too many times they were sloppy in contact, with the ball being stripped away from the tackled player or a stray boot kicking the ball out of the side of the tackle.

This is where the accuracy must be achieved, both in how the ball is presented, and how the Scottish players clear out the tackle area because they are against a team that are outstanding in contact.

Vern Cotter's side are looking to bounce back against the Welsh following their defeat by England

Wales have two scavengers in Sam Warburton and Justin Tipuric, who will target the ball working in tandem, but the rest of the pack are so physical and big that Scotland will need to be so good in this area to have a chance of winning.

It will require a colossal effort, but this is what will be required to allow Scotland to play any sort of rugby.

The Scottish players can play rugby, much more and much better than we saw last week but only if we can secure the Holy Grail — quick ball.