Popular Features

Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

Greg Dortch 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Greg Dortch is one of the best age-adjusted producers in the entire 2019 wide receiver class. In 2017, he broke out with 35 percent of Wake Forest receiving yards, and a ridiculous 47 percent of the touchdowns. Dortch accomplished this prior to his 20th birthday. He then…

Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…

2017 Fantasy Football Rankings: Recent Observations

*Note: These are a series of observations I put together after catching up on preseason tape during a ten hour layover in the Lisbon airport. Sorry if they seem like a conscious stream of unrelated thoughts. I’m not really sorry*

Looking at recent ADPs, Zeke is now going around the 2/3 turn or mid-Round 3 in 12-team leagues. I wouldn’t go crazy reaching on him, but if you feel like you can mine value (or get DMC in the fifth), I’d be OK anything after pick 20ish or so. (Depending on who is still on the board, obviously.) If it’s the full six games, that sucks, but I’d still take Zeke + the replacement RB of your choice over Gurley who is now going ahead of him. If you’re not an active waiver wire player or someone who doesn’t make a lot of moves, pass on Zeke, it’s not worth the week to week headache if you’re forced into playing RB match ups because you have no other alternatives. Also, DMC, even if you haven’t taken Zeke, should be a legit pick. Ride him until he can’t produce for you anymore and pray you’ve nailed a trade or pick up to replace his fringe RB1 stats once Zeke returns. Maybe trade for Zeke after Week 2 if you have someone whose stat line resembles Marv Jones’ start from last year, or someone the masses has bought into as actually legit. If the suspension stays at six games, the closer you to his return the higher the cost is going to be, and Week 1 the owner in your league won’t want to part with a player they spent significant draft capital to get, but if they start 0-1 or 0-2, panic should set in can you could potentially squeeze Zeke away for a sell-high candidate.

If Doug Martin keeps looking OK in the preseason, Jacquizz Rodgers will keep falling in drafts despite being a potential high volume RB for the first three weeks with an opportunity to keep that job if he performs well. If you want to take Zeke and feel like DMC’s price is too high, Quizz may be the fill in option you’re seeking to plug your RB slot until a better alternative crops up.

I’ve really been thinking picks 1-3 are where you want to start from, and I still do, but if Jordan Howard keeps falling into the mid/late second round, I’d be pretty amped for an AJ Green/Howard start from the backend of the draft.

Dalvin Cook looks solid, but would need to play all three downs and be a large part of the receiving game for me to start reaching up drafts for him. That O-Line is fucking pitiful and I don’t see where the upside comes from on a team that’s content slowly moving the chains. Unless you think his talent will transcend the situation, I just don’t feel good taking him over Powell, Hyde, Crowell, Montgomery or even Woodhead in PPR leagues. Fortunately, for the who agree, Cook’s preseason hype has devalued those other players.

No clue what’s going on in the Seattle backfield. Li’l Lacy looks cooked. Rawls probably in the lead as starter. This Chris Carson dude looks like he’ll be in the mix periodically with an opportunity to grab the job if the other two falter. That said, I still like Prosise the best for Fantasy. If he can start getting 6-10 carries per week (maybe more???), he could be a rich man’s Theo Riddick depending on how the Seahawks decide to run their offense.

Marlon Mack looks explosive but will he surpass Gore (or even Turbin)? I wanna say, yes, but I’ve said that about Gore for 4 straight years now.

CJ2K the handcuff in Zona. Let’s hop it doesn’t come to that.

Gillislee (Hammy); Moving Rex Up a bit and dropping Ol’ Gil down into the CJA/Ware territory. No fucking clue what to do here. Maybe they’re all just DFS GPP options? I’d still pounce on Gillislee if he dropped to the eighth, though.

I ranked Blount too highly. My bad. Got that corrected now. I’ll still take him 12th round and after just for the potential TD upside, but may get cut before the season starts for all I know. I really hope Donnel Pumphrey somehow ends up the starter in Philly, though. 1) Saying that name will never cease being fun. 2) I’ve already added his name to my computer’s spell check.

Ware ahead of Hunt. Kelley ahead of Perine. Prefer Perine to Hunt in drafts as he’s a more likely option to take the starter’s job. Hunt is good, but I think Ware is too. Fat Rob = not great.

Time to bump Mixon down. Hill starting in Preseason, so maybe it’s a timeshare at best for him?

I have to rank Shady highly because of talent, volume and situation (it wouldn’t make sense not to), but I just have bad vibes about him this season. I don’t know why, and there’s no logical case to support those feelings, but I’ll be investing heavily in Jonathan Williams at end of drafts as a bench stash. I know Derrick Henry looks AMAZING at the moment, but in reality, when it comes starting on your Fantasy Football team, both need injuries to occur for you to ever start them. So, why not just take the guy who’s going in the last round instead of the mid-rounds. If I can’t get Williams, James Connor will be my next preferred option of the backups. I’m not huge on drafting handcuffs just to watch them rot on your bench for most the season, UNLESS they’re the type of backup RB who will inherit the entire workload if the starter gets injured. Just look at the top of the RB rankings, not just mine, anybody’s; it’s every RB not involved in an RBBC. There is value in stashing a guy like that if you have more than three bench spots.

Tarik Cohen: Looks like Bears next up and Howard Handcuff… or the focus of an OC reboot.

Emmanuel Sanders at ADP WR25 (On ESPN), Lucky Pierre Garcon at WR34, Cam Meredith at WR43 and Kenny Britt WR44 are all going too late. Not saying draft all of them and make that your WR corps, but they’re all solid targets to take a round ahead of where they’re going. In PPR leagues, that is.

I ranked Mike Evans WR5 going into last season, and was told by some to “end my life for being that stupid”. Because, you know, the internet is full of warmth. Some people bought my case for Evans but most didn’t see it. Now that I’m effectively out on Evans (I have him at WR10), it’s the exact people are coming at me again (I don’t forget), but now they think completely differently a year later. In real life, peoples’ convictions are obstinate, even in the face of indisputable evidence. In Fantasy football, peoples’ opinions are basically the last thing they’ve seen. That is now gospel and nothing could ever change. Look, last year there was a pretty reasonable case for Evans to be target whore with enough talent to make a leap. And it did. However, the offensive scheming by the Bucs in the second half really worried me from an upside-for-Evans perspective. After being Top 5 in the league in pace of play for the first eight weeks, Tampa basically did the opposite in the second half, and Evans consistently high fantasy scores went with it. He had five or more receptions in seven of his first eight games to open 2016; only four of eight in the final eight. Plus, over the final five games of the season, he scored just two TDs and cracked 65 yards once. I’d expect to see more of that slower pace again this season, in addition to adding DJAX into the mix. I don’t think Evans is bad (as mentioned, I have him at WR10), but if you think he’s getting near 175 targets again, you’ve lost your fucking mind. Expect something in the 115-140 range, especially if Tampa is not getting blown out in games and being forced into the air. Yes, I know that is a large range, but if your range of outcomes is narrowed down to a five target range, and you feel pretty confidential about that, you should just make a career on betting props since you EXACTLY what is going to happen. If Evans hits the top of that range, and doesn’t under achieve on TDs, he’ll probably be Top 6 at the position. If he comes in at the low end, you’re looking at WR 8-15. I think he falls into that second camp more often than not.

Crabtree going 20 picks after Cooper is nonsensical.

Golden Tate at Pick 47 in PPR leagues is the steal of the draft. Tate is a WR1 in PPR leagues. Just imagine if he had an outlier TD season???? He’d be top 5. I love Doug Baldwin and everything, but there’s zero reason for him to be going 25 picks ahead of Tate. If no draft price was attached to them, I’d still lean Baldwin, but only by a little bit. At their current prices, Tate 100%.

The Golladay hype is a bit much. He could pass Marv if things break right. I wouldn’t go crazy reaching on him, though. Round 11 (in 12 team) and after seems about right. Prob more likely to be cut after Week 3 from your Fantasy team than starting in your lineup by that time. Worth a flyer for the upside however.

@PhilFBG had a cool JJ Nelson stat. In 4 games without Michael Floyd in the lineup Nelson never saw fewer than 7 targets. John Brown is unreliable with injuries, could be a great spot for JJ.

Kasen Williams feels like guy who will be dropped after posting zeros in Week 1. That said, I’m wrong often.

Someone told me to “watch out” for Russell Shepard now that it looks like he’ll be Carolina’s WR3 to open the season. That person needs to get a fucking life.

Doctson finally healthy! Grant starting ahead of him right now, but not too worried about that.

Martavis Bryant and DeSean Jackson are being drafted around exactly the pick. Who are the people taking DJAX in this scenario?

If Anquan Boldin leads the Bills in receptions, yardage and touchdown, do you think those totals would be high enough to make him an every week starter on your Fantasy team? Feel free to swap out Boldin’s name with Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews or Andre Holmes in this scenario too. UPDATE: Boldin retired! Same still applies to the rest

Had to drop TyGAWD in the ranks. There’s just no one there.

How long until Mahomes is the starter?

HackenCUST, LOL

Has Eric Ebron duped us all? This hamstring injury is starting to worry me. I’m still in on him being a Top 10 TE, but I’ve moved Ertz back ahead of him.

I’ve also moved Walker down. There’s just too many receiving options (in a run first offense, I may add) to bump him up to the next level. If he was going later in drafts, I’d scoop up his consistent floor, but he’s going 20 picks before Eifert, 40 ahead of Ertz, 60 ahead of Doyle, 70 ahead of Ebron, 100 ahead of Zach Miller. There’s just no reason to take him where he’s currently being drafted.

Are all of us collectively sleeping on Colton John Fiedorowicz?

Can someone give me odds on David Njoku being the best rookie tight end in Fantasy? I mean, he’s not really draftable, but I do think he’ll be a decent streaming option at some point. More than I can say about Howard and Engram.

The Pat Mayo Hour covers the entire scope of the Fantasy sports landscape from Football to Reality TV, daily and yearly leagues and everything in between. You can watch the Pat Mayo Hour every weekday at noon, 3:00pm EST, 8:00pm EST and Midnight on the FNTSY Sports Network Television channel or on your Apple TV, Xbox, Roku or Amazon Fire Stick. If you have a Fantasy question, general inquiry or snarky comment, ship it to Mayo at PatMayoHour@gmail.com and the best will be addressed on the show.

Popular Features

Pre-Combine NFL Mock Draft The 2019 NFL Draft is over 50 days away but the speculation on how the first round will go is in full swing. I have been waiting my whole football career to be in the position to do a first-round NFL Mock Draft and with so much intrigue, especially amongst the top…

With the Combine only a couple of weeks away, now seems like a good time to start evaluating not just who to target in dynasty rookie drafts, but where those targets may go in your league. I got together with Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) to do a first round rookie mock draft. Our objective in this…

Pre-Combine Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings Earlier this week, Anthony Amico published his pre-combine rookie WR rankings. Now that the NFL combine is upon us, here are my Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings. I have done them by position: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Running Back and Tight End. These positional rankings are going to change for…

Which 2019 RB Prospects Have the Best Odds to Succeed? I’ve been doing a lot of modeling on the wide receiver side of things so far, but very little with running backs. There are some new modeling techniques I’ve been eager to try, with one of them being a logistic regression to find success probability…

Josh Jacobs 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Josh Jacobs is not an easy prospect to evaluate. For most NFL scouts and self-styled NFL Draft analysts on the internet, he is either the best running back in the 2019 NFL draft class or at least in the conversation. I have a distinct feeling that…

Miles Sanders 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Miles Sanders is an interesting case study in how to evaluate prospects. Our general analysis weights breakout age and production as a true freshman as something that is fairly important. When evaluating wide receivers, this task becomes a little easier because no football team ever has…

Greg Dortch 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Greg Dortch is one of the best age-adjusted producers in the entire 2019 wide receiver class. In 2017, he broke out with 35 percent of Wake Forest receiving yards, and a ridiculous 47 percent of the touchdowns. Dortch accomplished this prior to his 20th birthday. He then…

Damien Williams: First Round Fantasy Football Pick Damien Williams is being ranked and drafted erroneously. As of this moment, his Expert Consensus Ranking on Fantasy Pros (which combines rankings from across the industry) plants him as the 43rd overall player. At the running back position, he is being ranked behind Derrick Henry, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip…

Deebo Samuel 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Profile Scouting Report Deebo Samuel has had a wild ride as a prospect. In 2017 lists and at the start of the 2018 season, he was perhaps regarded as one of the best wide receiver prospects in the entire class. Samuel was pretty consistently hampered by injury while at…

Fantasy Football Free Agency: Tyrell Williams Signs With The Oakland Raiders The wide receiver market was not nearly as good in free agency as it was via trade, making Tyrell Williams one of the best options out there for teams to sign. The Raiders made what appeared to be a sizable commitment for him – four years and…