Wazir Update; Bajaur Accords signed

While MusharaafÂ and Pakistan are going through a political storm over the arrest of the Chief Justice of their high court, other things areÂ still happening in the hinterlands of Pakistan. While the WAPO reportsÂ the Chief JusticeÂ arrestÂ as “Musharaaf’s worst crisis to date”, it’s aÂ storm I think he will weather from reading manyÂ Pak online forums. (The 1/3 or so that does not support him is worried enough aboutÂ who would replace himÂ not to get overwrought over theÂ CJ, thatÂ might change as the case plays out however.)Â

The BajaurÂ peace treaty has been signed, the Frontier Post reports on it here.

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Recently I’ve written a series of posts with some analysis of how I see things going right now in theÂ tribal regions of Pakistan, and where thisÂ might beÂ headed longer term. Usually I’m pretty good when I put on my “Karnak” hat, but on the other hand I could be wrong. (My wife tells me I am often wrong!)Â To sum up my view, I think the head’s apart from the snake, and every part of the body thinks it’s in control.

However thisÂ region’sÂ very complex, so to get a balanced view IÂ invite you stop by Fourth Rail, and get Bill Roggio’s excellent thoughts and analysis as well.

KABUL, March 25: Pakistan army patrols of the border with Afghanistan are helping to block Taliban reinforcements moving into the south, said a Nato commander on Sunday.

A Nato and Afghan operation launched in Helmand province of nearly three weeks ago had not been met with any â€œmajor mobilisationâ€ of forces, Maj-Gen Ton van Loon told reporters.

In that area, â€œWe are seeing that there are limited amounts of foreign fighters coming into the country and I think the Pakistanis are really making a big difference,â€ the Dutch general told reporters.

There had been an â€œincrease in patrolling along the border and around refugee camps by the Pakistani army,â€ he said.

Afghan and Western officials have stepped up pressure on Pakistan in past months to do more to stop militants moving from bases on Pakistani soil into Afghanistan to feed the Taliban-led insurgency.

The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and Afghan troops involved in the operation, called Achilles, had encountered â€œhardcore Taliban extremists,â€ he said.

But, â€œTo date we have not seen signs of a major mobilisation of enemy forces …,â€ said the ISAF commander for southern Afghanistan.

What if the Taliban calls for a summer offensive and nobody or just a few really shows up? Unlikely to happen, especially if the angst against foreign refugees in Pakistan continues and transfers to the Afghan refugees. If that occurs then you would see a migration back to Afghanistan, a minor refugee crisis, and resultant chaos in Afghanistan, and chaos is always a good recruiting tool for the bad guys.

Meanwhile, voluntary returns continue in large numbers, as this article points out.