Thursday, 24 January 2013

TweetI’m not sure that ‘speech’
is the right word to describe what Cameron has finally got round to saying
about the UK’s
membership of the EU.Perhaps I’m too
much of a traditionalist, but a speech is normally a talk given to an audience
at an event of some sort – this appears to have been an extended press
statement / photo op, delivered to an excited bunch of hacks, party staff, and
whoever else Rent-a-Crowd could get together at 24 hours’ notice.Another little victory for spin over reality.

The content went
further than had been foreseen by many – not least because in talking in clear
terms about an ‘in/out’ vote, it was a change from what Cameron himself seemed
to have been saying previously.The
much-vaunted referendum is predicated, of course, on the increasingly unlikely
assumption of a Tory victory in the 2015 General Election.Indeed, even those who aren’t particularly
cynical can see that the whole speech had more to do with trying to reduce the
improbability of that election result that with the question of EU membership
per se.Not exactly the best basis on
which to make such a fundamental decision.

It’s also predicated
on another assumption – that the other members of the UK will be
willing to allow one member to negotiate a new and unique category of
membership applying only to itself.Whether that is more, or less, probable than a Conservative election
victory is a matter of opinion.I rather
suspect that the other members will do their very best to kick the issue into
the long grass until after that General Election.Why bother negotiating something you don’t
want with what looks like a lame-duck Prime Minister?

The reaction of one
of our local Tory MPs to the unlikelihood of the EU’s other members welcoming a
renegotiation confirmed, yet again, the attitude of many in his party to the
EU.“If
that makes the Europeans squeal a bit, so be it,” said Simon Hart.It’s perfectly clear from that use of
language that ‘European’ is not a word which applies to ‘us’; it is something ‘other’,
something external.

I don’t for one
moment disagree with Plaid’s call for the vote in Wales – if this referendum is ever actually
held – to be separately declared.I
suspect, however, that both Plaid and Labour are deluding themselves if they
believe that the result of any vote in Wales
would be significantly different from that in England.The fact that the Welsh and English political
establishments take very different views does not mean that those differences
are reflected in the electorate at large.I see no hard – or even soft – evidence of that.

Pouring scorn on
Cameron for a piece of shifty political manoeuvring which is all about his own
party’s political advantage is easy.It’s
a lot harder to argue against the principle of holding a referendum at some
point on an issue of such major constitutional importance as this.After all, if there is no case for a
referendum on a significant constitutional issue on which both the public at
large and the politicians are clearly divided, then what is the case for ever
holding a referendum on anything?

To argue that there
should be no referendum, ever, appears to be saying either that the issue is
not important enough, or else that the politicians don’t trust the electorate
to make the right decision.(Actually, most
of them probably don’t, but they can hardly stand up and say that.)And arguing that the issue or the timing is
wrong look like fudge.Cameron has let
the genie out of the bottle; whilst he might have been trying to distract
attention from an issue on which his party is rather badly split, I rather
suspect that he has actually ensured that the issue will dominate much of what
his own side are saying for the next four or five years.

The problem – and the
danger – is that, if such a referendum actually happens, the debate will
revolve around jingoism, insularity, immigration, and perceptions about bent
cucumbers and euro-sausages, rather than being a serious debate about the
future position of Wales.However, if we can turn it into the latter, then it
could also become – probably would also become – a debate about Wales’ position
in both unions.That’s a big ‘if’; but
Cameron might just possibly have done nationalists something of a favour here,
albeit entirely unintentionally.

"I suspect, however, that both Plaid and Labour are deluding themselves if they believe that the result of any vote in Wales would be significantly different from that in England. The fact that the Welsh and English political establishments take very different views does not mean that those differences are reflected in the electorate at large. I see no hard – or even soft – evidence of that."

Completely agree. 'Europe' has become rather like capital punishment. It has an organic 'mob' response. This has either been cultured by the right wing, or allowed to develop through neglect by moderate pro-Europeans (they've never really had the guts to slug it out over the difficult economic and constitutional issues).

If it comes to a referendum, there will be no separate Welsh narrative or debate. Carwyn and Kirsty and Leanne and the venerable grandees of the IWA will count for nothing. Steamroller Beeb, Sky and ITN will totally dominate the broadcast media, the usual London titles will dominate the print media. The Welsh electorate will vote EXACTLY how the English electorate will vote, and that will be determined by London campaigns and London media responses.

Having said that, I don't think it is a forgone conclusion. The same ignorance, prejudice and fear of the mob that has been manipulated thus far by the right-wing press to spew out a Pavlovian "Mais non!" could quite as easily and quite as fickly be manipulated by a sophisticated campaign to produce a "mais oui".

Can I endorse the wise words of anonymous 10:40 25 Jan?It is the English vote that will matter in this debate and the path Wales will tread will be decided by them , as it is each day at Westminster with the predominance of English MP`s and their “running dogs” in Wales and Scotland. I never understood why Plaid got so het up in 1975 about the whole question, but the Left were determined to demonstrate their virility to their cousins/comrades in England.Those in England that support the British “Union” are the very same people that oppose the European Union, but this is easily explained. Deep in the English id is the Plantationist gene – “make the world, England and build Jerusalem” and this has worked well, OK Ireland has separated, Scotland looks wobbly, but Wales is docile and malleable. In the EU however, these Johnny Foreigners do not buy into this “natural order” of things, as pre-ordained by the Christian Anglican God, furthermore ,they are total ingrates who wish to forget England`s sacrifice in extracting them (USA is not mentioned) out of the mire, twice in one century. As for the Southern Catholic states, well nuff said, as they play about all day, confess on Sunday and do no work.

I think we have to bear in mind that the Tories won't be returned in 2015. The ball will be in Labour's court. Unlike the Tories, Labour won't want to repatriate the social policy and workers' rights policy (which is the main thing that gripes Cameron).