Six weeks ago, I would have given a slight edge to sentimental
favorite "Juno," the teen pregnancy comedy that seemed to have the
whole country swept up in an inexplicable frenzy of adoration. That
bit of unpleasantness appears to have subsided, though, and
critical darling "No Country for Old Men" looks to be the one to
beat. The backlash over the film's abrupt, bewildering ending
shouldn't be enough to hinder the steady stream of praise the movie
has received since its debut. This chase flick may be a tad too
violent for some voters' tastes, but, hey, they gave the award to
"The Departed" last year, so maybe those prudes are finally
loosening up a bit.

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Javier Bardem stars in "No
Country for Old Men." (Courtesy photo)

Of course, that wave of buzz and unmitigated praise should have
been directed at "There Will Be Blood." While the film did get more
than its share of kudos, it deserved even more. This was the year's
truly great western - methodically paced, horrifying without being
overtly violent, and often unbearably intense even when not much is
going on plot-wise. It's been billed as merely an oil industry
drama, but it's also a penetrating character study on the level of
"Citizen Kane," not to mention an inventive, sometimes surreal
vision of the apocalypse. (Oh yes, there's subtext aplenty.) You
can't help but fall in love with a movie that ambitious.

And once again, the real best film of the year has gotten the
shaft. Nominated only for actress Amy Ryan's supporting
performance, "Gone Baby Gone" was overlooked in nearly every major
category. Its absence from the best picture race is particularly
aggravating, as this kidnapping thriller is even more impressive
than the considerable sum of its parts. It's not often that a movie
can claim to be both the most entertaining and most
thought-provoking film in a given year, but "Gone Baby Gone" takes
both titles handily. It offers up a story (based on the novel by
"Mystic River" scribe Dennis Lehane) that exploits only the best
aspects of genre conventions while at the same time subverting
audience expectations by throwing us a final-act curveball that
forces us to cast doubts on the very foundation of our respective
belief systems. I think that alone trumps anything that anyone
could possibly say about "Juno."

He was robbed five years ago for his iconic performance in
"Gangs of New York," but previous winner Daniel Day-Lewis is
heavily favored here for his turn as Daniel Plainview, the
ferocious oil baron at the center of "There Will Be Blood." He's
won the lion's share of awards so far, and there's no reason to
think he won't win the big one, too. For anyone who has seen the
movie, it should be blindingly obvious that none of the other
nominees even come close to touching Day-Lewis' work, which blends
theatrical and cinematic acting styles together to form a
singularly weird tour de force that defies categorization.

Just look at that final scene, when Plainview completes his
descent into absolute madness; no other actor, living or dead,
could have pulled that off without looking totally ridiculous.
Day-Lewis, however, embraces the inherent absurdity of the scene,
and then completely owns it. He also succeeded in making "I drink
your milkshake!" a viable pop-culture catchphrase, which is awesome
in itself.

Philip Seymour Hoffman has been giving such natural performances
for so many years that it's easy to gloss over and dismiss him as a
character actor who already got his due with a win for "Capote" two
years ago, and should now go back to his supporting-actor roots.
(Hence the nod for his backup role in "Charlie Wilson's War.") But
his best work this year - in several years, actually - was as the
lead in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," Sidney Lumet's
little-seen heist thriller-cum-Greek tragedy. As one of a pair of
brothers who decide to rob their own parents' jewelry store,
Hoffman makes the progression from sleazy everyman to desperate
criminal seem believable and disturbingly natural.

Oscar voters love a survivor, and this year they'll likely show
that love to longtime Academy darling and previous winner Julie
Christie, who earned some of the best notices of her illustrious
career for her turn as an Alzheimer's sufferer in "Away From Her."
This is one of the year's most wide-open races, so she's far from a
sure thing. However, since she nabbed the Screen Actors Guild award
and a slew of critics prizes, she has earned her front-runner
status with a strong role that shows that after all these years,
she's still got it.

Christie's most formidable competition may be Marion Cotillard,
nominated for her haunting portrayal of legendary French singer
Edith Piaf in "La Vie En Rose." If enough voters actually saw the
film, she would win easily. But the film is quite a sit, and
subtitled to boot, so some prospective supporters may be turned
off. A shame, because this was such a fascinating, physically
demanding role for Cotillard, who transformed herself inside and
out to play her subject over a span of 30 years. With a presence
and energy reminiscent of Giulietta Masina in her prime, Cotillard
is simply stunning.

And no, despite careful thought, I cannot think of any lead
actresses who were snubbed this go-around. It's sad to admit, but
honestly, 2007 wasn't what you could call a strong year for
actresses.

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old
Men"

Should win: Tom Wilkinson in "Michael
Clayton"

Overlooked: Ed Harris in "Gone Baby Gone" and
Paul Dano in "There Will Be Blood"

Not since Hannibal Lector and "The Silence of the Lambs" has a
cinematic psychopath gotten as much attention as Javier Bardem's
Anton Chigurh, the unstoppable force of death and destruction in
"No Country for Old Men." Here's a figure so malevolent and calmly
brutal that he becomes less a character in the traditional sense
and more of a catch-all figurehead for the incomprehensible evil of
which men are capable. He's what people are remembering most about
the movie, so you can count on Bardem riding the film's wave of
critical popularity to his first - but probably not last - Oscar
win.

I preferred Tom Wilkinson's work in "Michael Clayton," in which
he plays a high-powered attorney who finds he must lose his mind in
order to gain back his conscience. It's definitely a high-wire act,
but Wilkinson tows the line between realism and over-the-top
theatrics with such dexterity that it is often easy to take the
performance for granted. It's delicate work in which Wilkinson must
sell himself as both sweet and creepy (often in the same scene),
but he proves he's up to the task and crafts what may be the year's
most heartbreaking role.

Since I didn't have a pick for a lead actress who was overlooked
by the Academy, I guess I'm entitled to two in this category. My
first choice would be Ed Harris, who towered over "Gone Baby Gone"
with his performance as a fiercely protective policeman
investigating the disappearance of a little girl. Nobody can
portray raw intensity like Harris, who continues to be either
robbed or completely ignored by Oscar voters who fail to realize
that this guy deserves at least two or three awards by now.

Also worthy of a nod was Paul Dano (seen two years ago in
another best picture nominee, "Little Miss Sunshine") as the
falsely pious preacher Eli Sunday in "There Will Be Blood." Asking
such a young actor to go head-to-head with an intimidating veteran
like Daniel Day-Lewis is quite a request, but Dano tackled the role
with a reckless abandon that can only be described as admirable.
And while his co-star is the one getting all the accolades, Dano's
performance is just as central to the film's success. Sunday is the
festering annoyance that ultimately drives oilman Daniel Plainview
to the brink of insanity, and that journey wouldn't be nearly as
credible or as interesting had Dano not carried his weight with the
confidence of a seasoned pro.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There"

Should win: Tilda Swinton in "Michael
Clayton"

Overlooked: Marcia Gay Harden in "The Mist"

Ruby Dee won the SAG award for her turn in "American Gangster,"
but since that was little more than a cameo role (and not a
particularly memorable one, at that), I refuse to believe that
she'll pull out an Oscar win as well. In this competitive race,
look for double-threat Cate Blanchett (also nominated by default
for her leading role in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age") to beat out
critical fave Amy Ryan and take home her second supporting actress
Oscar for her work as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There." She was the
only female out of the eight different actors portraying the singer
in various stages of his life, yet amazingly enough, her
performance was the most authentic. Voters won't be able to resist
this delightful bit of stunt casting.

But I must give credit to Tilda Swinton, who, in my estimation,
eclipsed Javier Bardem's work in "No Country for Old Men" to give
us the year's best and most underrated villain. While Bardem's
character was cold and calculating, Swinton's murderous corporate
lackey is all emotion. A bundle of pained expressions and nervous
twitches, she demonstrates exactly how taxing it can be to live as
a bad guy with everything to lose. Look at her final scene, where
she is finally confronted by George Clooney's title character, and
you'll find one of the year's very best examples of great, layered
acting.

Marcia Gay Harden was the subject of some early Oscar buzz
before "The Mist" opened, but given the film's poor box office
performance, that quickly died down. Yet regardless of the movie's
financial failings - and no matter what you think about its
ostensibly silly plot involving a swarm of killer bugs that
terrorize a group of people holed up in a supermarket - there's no
denying that Harden (a previous winner in this category for 2000's
"Pollack") gave a tremendous performance as the loathsome religious
fundamentalist Mrs. Carmody. Never has the phrase "you love to hate
her" been more apt.

Best Director

Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen for "No Country
for Old Men"

Should win: Paul Thomas Anderson for "There
Will Be Blood"

Overlooked: Ben Affleck for "Gone Baby
Gone"

They deserved to win for 1996's "Fargo," but lost to Anthony
Minghella and his vastly inferior "The English Patient." But this
year, even if their film fails to nab the big prize, they are
pretty much guaranteed a win in this category. As two of the most
respected auteurs working in Hollywood, the Coens have been
cranking out great, original films for decades, and this will be
seen as a career achievement even for those who weren't entirely
sold on the film itself. It's worth noting that if they do get the
award, it will be the first time since 1961's "West Side Story"
that a directing team was honored.

As much as I admire the Coens and their work in "No Country for
Old Men," Paul Thomas Anderson clearly deserves this trophy.
Channeling past masters Orson Welles, John Huston and Stanley
Kubrick, he took what could have been a standard anti-capitalist
tirade and turned it into a magnum opus that will be discussed and
analyzed for decades. In a just world, a filmmaker this talented
and diverse would have two awards already (for 1997's "Boogie
Nights" and 1999's "Magnolia"). Given that justice rarely prevails
at the Oscars, Anderson will likely have to wait a while to get his
due. But I've no doubt that he eventually will.

• Joel and Ethan Coen are
nominated not only for producing, directing and writing "No Country
for Old Men," but are also nominated as film editors under the
pseudonym "Roderick Jaynes."
• Heath Ledger had been in talks to play Llewelyn Moss in "No
Country for Old Men," but withdrew to take "some time off." The
role ultimately went to Josh Brolin.
• Had the infamously reclusive Daniel Day-Lewis not agreed to play
Daniel Plainview, Paul Thomas Anderson has said it is unlikely that
"There Will Be Blood" would have been made.
• The "I drink your milkshake!" monologue from "There Will Be
Blood" was inspired by actual congressional transcripts from a
1920s oil drilling scandal involving Republican Senator Albert
Fall, of New Mexico.
• George Clooney's Michael Clayton wasn't always such a lonely guy:
All scenes involving his girlfriend, played by Jennifer Ehle, were
cut from the final print.
• It often took up to five hours to apply makeup to Marion
Cotillard for her scenes as the rapidly aging Edith Piaf in "La Vie
En Rose."
• For her role in "Gone Baby Gone," Amy Ryan was so convincing as a
low-class Boston mom that an on-set security guard mistook her for
a fan on the first day of shooting and wouldn't let her on the
set.Source: Internet Movie Database (http://www.imdb.com">http://www.imdb.com).

The Academy has a history of rewarding actors who fare well
behind the camera (Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Kevin Costner,
Clint Eastwood and Mel Gibson have all won in the past 30 years),
but apparently Ben Affleck doesn't qualify, despite the fact that
his film is leagues better than the best works of any of the
aforementioned actors-turned-directors. With a keen eye for detail
and a peerless sense of location, Affleck knocked one out of the
park with the Boston-based "Gone Baby Gone." It's a grand
achievement, and all the more impressive when you consider that
this was his first effort as a director. If he abandons his failing
acting career and focuses instead on making his own movies, we
should be seeing more great things from this born filmmaker.