Sunday, February 22, 2015

I am doing a Kickstarter campaign for $2,000 - $25,000 followed quickly by an equity crowdfunding for $250,000-$500,000, most likely through Fundable.com for the purpose of launching The Polymath, a weekly PDF magazine publishing nonpartisan analysis and commentary at the very highest level of intellectual sophistication.

Background for those new to The Polymath

I have already tested a scalable Facebook advertising strategy that is acquiring subscribers at less than 50¢ each. Even better, I have reason to believe that breakthrough phenomena may lower this initial cost.

Our writers will be the most intellectually sophisticated individuals in the world. Intellectual sophistication is a function of intelligence, erudition and intellectual discipline. We will need about 30 regular writers and they will come primarily from the 500,000 smartest people in Western civilization. Our Editors will search for them, but The Polymath will be a magnet for them, as well, so over time it will become progressively easier to find them.

Monetizing The Polymath presents a challenge and we will need to recruit a few experienced advertising sales people. They will sell ads directly but for the most part, ads will come from ad agencies. Over the long term the Polymathic Enterprise Network will provide most of the advertising revenue.

Our market is the top 2% of the population in intellectual sophistication. This is 26 million 16+ y.o. in Western civilization. My blogs suggest that there are the equivalent of 7 million in the rest of the world, for a total market of 33 million. This suggests that my goal of 4 million subscribers in three years, given that it is a free subscription, is reasonable.

The $50 Reward

The Kickstarter campaign is going to rely primarily on two contribution levels. The $25 level is rewarded with The Future 101 e-book and an e-certificate recognizing the contributor as a primary founder of The Polymath.

The $50 level comes additionally with a coupon for one free footer ad in the issue of your choice. This actually is an opportunity for the non-accredited investor to participate in the success of the Polymath to a proportionate degree as the accredited investors of the equity crowfunding.

After the Kickstarter campaign our circulation should be 20,000 and your ad coupon is worth $40. After the equity funding (in 6 months to a year) our circulation will be 300,000 and your coupon will be worth $600. If we achieve our goal of 4 million, which I am confident we will, your coupon will be worth $8,000. This is similar to my estimate of the value of $50 of equity purchased in the Fundable crowd funding campaign.

You may contribute as many $50 increments as you wish and you will receive a coupon for each. If you are interested, be sure to subscribe to The Polymayh if you have not only done do.

My assertion that it doesn't matter if Monty Hall knows has garnered little acceptance even among the highest IQ people. I woke this morning with my best proof yet. Here it is.

There is a set that contains three types of members
A= games where I selected the car door and it is always 1/3 of the members. Monty must open a goat door
B= games where Monty opens a goat door and I did not select the car door
C= games where Monty opens a car door

B= 2/3-C

If Monty knows, the assumption is that C=0 and B, therefore, equals 2/3. The advantage in switching is B/A or 2.

If Monty doesn't know, it is assumed that C=1/3 and B/A=1. There is no advantage or disadvantage in switching.

We see that it doesn't matter if Monty knows or doesn't know. All that matters is the value of C. If C=1/2, then B=2/3-1/2=1/6 and B/A=1/2 and there is an advantage in not switching.

This is all Bayesian friendly.

In the case as stated, the set has one member. In other words there is no reason to assume that this game belongs to a set of games that has more than one member. In this set C=0, B, therefore equals 2/3 and B/A=2. One should switch.

Now, if the problem stated that several games were to be played, THEN you would need to know the likely value of C. But that is not the problem as stated.

Monday, February 16, 2015

We are doing a $3,000 - $25,000 Kickstarter campaign to launch The Polymath, a weekly PDF magazine publishing the most intellectually sophisticated analysis and commentary in the world. The proceeds will be used to create sufficient subscriber base to follow up with an equity crowdfunding for $250,000. That will be sufficient to create a circulation of 300,000 which will create sufficient revenue to grow circulation to 4,000,000 in three years.

I am currently asking for 30 people to commit to contribute $25 before I open the campaign. The purpose is to create 'buzz'. At the outset I am telling people that I am going to be a major pest for a week or two. However, after the initial promotion I will begin 'boosting' Polymathica and Polymathic Institute page to 50,000+ targeted leads. This is really important; The Polymath will be of ongoing benefit for you, directly and indirectly. Here are the major reasons why:

Non-accredited investors can contribute $1,000 and will receive 25 footer ads in the future issues of their choice. By achieving our three year goals contributors will turn $1,000 into $200,000. The contribution can be syndicated conveniently into twenty-five $40 units. Accredited investors can invest in the equity crowdfunding and our three year goal will also turn $1,000 into $200,000.

Articles in The Polymath will encourage readers to move away from politically motivated positions to fact based ones. Because our readers tend to be thought leaders in their social circles, The Polymath has the potential to significantly improve the public discourse.

The Polymath will finance the growth of Polymathica. A multimillion member Polymathica will vastly improve the social and lifestyle landscape for Polymathicans.

Right now self published books and articles at our level of intellectual sophistication rarely reach a readership that justifies the time and effort put into them. That is because the market is not organized to allow writers to cost effectively find their readers. The Polymath changes that.

The Polymath will provide members of Polymathica Enterprise Network with cost effective access to investors and customers. Even if you don't have a business model now, The Polymath will substantially improve your options going forward.

80% to 95% of The Polymath will be owned by The Polymathic Institute. Since its mission is to promote polymathic research, education, careers and lifestyles, revenue that is not used to produce and promote The Polymath will be used to improve options for Polymathicans.

It is not hyperbole to assert that this could be the best $25 you ever spend. For the inappropriately excluded, it may be an essential ingredient for Information Age success.

If you have not subscribed to The Polymath you should fvnow. There is a subscription form on this page.

You should visit the Polymath Archives site to learn more about how you may become involved in The Polymath.

Join The Polymathic Enterprise Network

We are searching for 150 founders by year end 2017. By paying for one year Membership in The Polymathic Institute, you will receive lifetime membership. This is an opportunity to build a finely crafted life as a Polymath. To learn more, read the page, Polymathic Institute Founding Members.

Membership e-mail

Michael W. Ferguson

Polymath, visionary and change agent

A home for the intellectually sophisticated

Subscribe to The Polymath

The Polymath is the official publication of Polymathica, a global community of refinement and erudition, and The Polymathic Institute, which promotes polymathic research, education, careers and lifestyles. It also promotes projects designed to be remediation for the Inappropriately Excluded.

Your referral code is 32950. It is used to track the source of our new subscribers.

Polymathica Social Media

Register at http://polymathica.network-maker.com and join me at 'Remediation for the Inappropriately Excluded' group. I am aggressively building a series of professionally curated discussion groups and related fora.

Polymathica is a growing, global community of refinement and erudition and a nascent, Information Age Culture of Affluence.

Polymathican Blogs

Remediation Resources

Experiment.com will be a useful tool in our goal of remediation for Polymaths and the inappropriately excluded. While this site provides a good format for funding independent research, it is not going to provide an adequate supply of funders. However, by utilizing our contacts in Polymathica we can move forward in the Polymathic Institute's goal to promote polymathic research and secondarily, polymathic careers.

Fundable.com for many this will be the best crowdfunding platform for equity offerings. Their charge is $179 per month. Of course, the payment processing fee of 3.2% to 3.7% is extra. Still, a three month, $500,000 offering will only have a total cost of around $18,000 to $20,000 far below the 9% to 10% of most platforms. Of course, like all equity funding sites, you will need to bring most of the investors yourself. That is where P.E.N. comes in.

My Quotes

From time to time I post something that deserves more than ephemeral exposure. When that happens, I post it here.

Career Advice

You can't earn a living telling people how things are or how they will be. You earn a living by feeding their confirmation bias. That is not a career to which one should aspire.

On Fools

I really have attempted to abide by the apostolic admonition to suffer fools gladly. However, in the end, there were just too many of them.

On Being Human

I was asked, 'In what way does human intellect differ from other animals in kind and not just in degree?' I answered, 'Only humans can ask that question.'

On Opinions

Those who say, 'That's just my opinion' rarely mean it. Those who say, 'That's just your opinion' almost always do.

IQ in Perspective

A guy once quoted to me, 'When a wise man points at a star the fool looks at his finger.'
I replied, 'True. But so does my dog and I love her dearly.
Let's not overly weigh intelligence in our assessments of worth.'

The First Principle of Information Age Political Philosophy

No person should be required to live under a body of laws, programs and policies that they consider to be fundamentally unjust.

How Markets Really Work

Perception is reality...until reality steps in and says, 'OK, enough!!!'

On the Mainstream News

Pitting a Left Wing lunatic against a Right Wing lunatic gets you a whole lot of pyrotechnics but absolutely no useful insights. You can't average them and find yourself in a defensible middle.

Knowing the Future

There has been no time in the last 200 years when the world thirty years hence was generally believable. Therefore, if someone tells you what the world will be like in thirty years and it seems reasonable, history says that they are wrong.

Make a Difference

I am interested in what you have done, what you are doing and what you will do. I am supremely indifferent to what you could do, but won't. Consequently, I don't care very much about your IQ.