Get Live results here http://www.wdam.com/category/249639/2014-mississippi-congressional-election-resultsMcdaniel actually trails Cochran by one point in the only independent poll heading into the run-off election being held on june 24th. However a democrat poll has Mcdaniel up 8% and a republican poll has him leading by 12%. The conventional thinking is that Mcdaniel has more hard core supporters and since turnout is typically low for run-offs that will give Mcdaniel an edge. I agree with that thinking and I give Mcdaniel a strong edge about 52.6 - 47.4.Cochran has the establishment behind him and some of his backers say that his supporters took the election lightly and many who didn't come out before will come out now. But he had the establishment behind him before and a poll did come out more than two weeks before the election showing Mcdaniel in the lead by 4%. They should have done their internal polling also showing the election was going to be tight. I do have to admit that a lot of people don't show up for primaries and some of his loyal supporters may have taken the eleciton lightly but it won't be enough to overcome the support that Mcdaniel now seems to have.Polls for Mississippi runoff close 8pm eastern.Get Live results here http://www.wdam.com/category/249639/2014-mississippi-congressional-election-results

Any analysis of Rasmussen polling would lead anyone to question the results of their polls. They do a rolling average of daily surveys and every days result is the average of the last three days Rasmussen polling results have been extremely favorable to Obama showing him recently at an average of about -3 when the rest of the polls have at about -14. On June 5th he was as high +6 while other polls at the time were averaging around -12. The statistical probability of this 18 point difference happening without some sort of innaccurate way of polling impossibly low. You have to consider the fact that the June 5th poll is an average of three days, surveying 500 people per day.I really think realclearpolitics ought to consider not publishing there results any longer. It takes the credibility away from RCP and gives the readers innaccurate information. RCP shouldn't just publish results without questioning them at all. Their latest result had disapproval by 7 which is an outlier for them. That means the last poll they took had to be disapproval by around 10 and the people they polled 2 days earlier had approval by around 2. They should audit how these polls are being taken.Send somebody with a polster and see what is going on. None of their other polling seems to decidely pro-democrat. Which is strange. I also don't like that RCP deletes their results but not for anyone else.I personally wonder if they are actually polling people or just making it up. And that goes true for when Scott Rasmussen was running the polls. He was clearly favoring the right. They should either audit the polls or dump them.http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Scott Brown won the Massachussettes senate race in 2009 by about 6 points prior to losing to Elizebeth Warren in 2012 by about 10. He was thought to be a strong candidate in the more conservative New Hampshire but two polls recently taken show him trailing Jeanne Shaheen by 10 and 12 points.

Solid polling edge for Booker, but less than many would have thought

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Democrat Corey Booker only leading Republican Jeff Bell by 48% to 35% margin. Although the lead is comfortable most experts probably would have predicted Booker to be leading in the polls by 20 to 25 percent. Booker was also underwhelming in his 10.6 percent victory over Lonegan. Especially when you consider these factors:

NJ leaned about 13.9% more democrat than the nation as a whole in the 2012 presidential election.

Booker had an excellent approval rating near 60 percent and considered a hero/celebrity mayor with lots of great press for saving someone's life in a fire.

Had greatname recognition prior to that.

Lonegan was never considered a strong candidate although the Tea Party gave him very strong support. Polls in NJ showed many people thought he was too conservative.

Bell was not considered to be the strongest candidate that republicans could put up. The candidates that were considered to be stronger chose not to run, perhaps preferring to take their chances against Menendez instead. Top tier potential Republican candidates like state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. (R-Union), Assembly Minority Leader Jon Bramnick (R-Union) and state Sen. Michael Doherty (R-Warren) announced they wouldn’t run.You have to wonder If Bell continues to poll well if the republicans won't regret not putting forth a stronger candidate.Bell is 70 years old and Corey Booker is in his 40's. This could be a plus for Bell as nj has a large number of seniors. However, most voters are considerably younger and age could hurt as well.

Al Franken's lead over Mike Mcfadden has slipped according to a Survey USA poll. The poll shows Franken ahead by only 6% while previous polls taken in April and February had him up 15% and 10%.Franken survived a very close race in 2008 defeated Norm Coleman by a few hundred votes. He was able to overcome an IRS investigation that resulted in him having to pay back around $70,000in back taxes because of a little over 50,000 thousand that he owed. The investigation found that Franken had only paid taxes in two states that he lived rather than the 15 others that he was required to pay taxes because he earned money in those states. Initially Franken told media sources that he only owed taxes in California but it was later revealed that he owed in 14 other states.

Franken blamed it on a mistake made by his accountant. The website of the accounting business the accountant worked for said they specialize in touring. Most accountants say no accountant should make that kind of error.Franken may not prove to be a particularly strong candidate when all is said and MIke Mcfadden should have a shot at an upset here.

Christie Leading the pack the pack in head to head match-ups with Hillary Clinton

Iowa - June 9 Loras CollegeClinton 48 Christie 39Clinton 52 Paul 38Clinton 49 Bush 38Clinton 50 Ryan 39Clinton 50 Huckabee 40Iowa is a slightly democrat leaning state by about 2%.(Meaning it as about 2% more democrat than the nation as a whole. So these numbers are good for Hillary but the numbers are closing mildly in battleground states. Obama defeated Clinton in the 2008 Caucus by about 9%. It is difficult to tell what we should gleam from that since it was a caucus and not a primary and had low voter participation.Pennsylvania - June 5 QuinnipiacClinton 45 Christie 41Clinton 50 Ryan 38Clinton 51 Paul 37Clinton 51 Bush 35PA is leaning democrat by an average of 3.1% in the last 3 elections but by only 1.5% in the last election. Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania primary in 2008 defeating Obama convincingly. She could be very strong in this democrat leaning state as her leads over all the candidates except Christie are stronger than usual for a battle ground state. Christie is running much stronger against Clinton in PA than any other republican possibly because he is from neighboring New Jersey. Florida - Survey USA June 11Clinton 47 Bush 41Florida is a republican leaning state by about 3.1% over last 3 elections. Especially taking that into consideration, Hillary Clinton has been polling very strong in Florida. There are many transplanted New Yorkers living in Florida and its is her new adopted home state and she is obviously very strong there. Another factor is the senior vote. She is polling much better among older voters than any democrat has in the past. Although Florida has been leaning republican it could go for Hillary in a dead even election. She leads Jeb Bush by 6% and he was a popular former Governor of the state. The idea that she could defeat a popular republican governor in his home republican leaning state is difficult to imagine. If she does the republicans would have to win Ohio(R).9 Virginia(even) Pennslyvania, Colorado,and Iowa. The last 3 states lean democrat by less than 2 points. You could exchange New Hampshire with Iowa or Colorado. Winning any of these states is very possible, but winning them all in a close election would be unlikely. Winning Pennsylvania alone would be very difficult as they have lost it in the last two elections that they won, and they cannot win without PA or Florida.Florida- ABC/Wash Post May 1 Clinton 52 Christie 34Clinton 55 Paul 37Clinton 49 Bush 41Clinton 56 Ryan 36Clinton 52 Rubio 40