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State Name: Washington
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State Name lower underscore: washington
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State Abbreviation: WA
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If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

What do you get when bond markets embark on a snowball rally due to headlines concerning Trump's Economic Advisor Gary Cohn? A delicious "Snow Cohn," of course (my team of writers assured me that was worth what I paid). In all seriousness...

With this morning's econ data already out and having no effect on bond markets, the only other report for the week is tomorrow morning's Consumer Sentiment--admittedly not the biggest market mover in the world. The backdrop for any potential volatility...

Today looked like it would be all about waiting for the Fed Minutes to see if there were any surprises. That plan began in fairly good shape, with only a mild rally following weaker residential construction data. By mid-day, bonds were staging near their...

Today's biggest calendar item is the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. The Minutes provide synopsis of the meeting that took place in the 2 days leading up to the official Fed announcement in late July. That announcement was very little changed...

Today was mostly about North Korean de-escalation, and somewhat about stronger economic data. If you haven't heard 43 times already, North Korea graciously decided to hold off on their little plan to nuke Guam (though the little plan of marching up...

Geopolitical risk is one of the most intuitive market movers for bonds. Threats of nuclear attacks from North Korea (as well as the rhetorical response from the US) are a classic example of geopolitical risk. Were there to be an actual nuclear attack...

Bond markets lost ground today, with all of the weakness arriving during the overnight session. The weakness was driven by a general "risk-on" move in financial markets, which tends to favor stocks at the expense of bonds. In today's case...

If you haven't seen/read my primers on various technical analysis topics, they're linked at certain points in the text below, and will be helpful in making the most of this post. If you'd like to read them in advance, here they are: Basic...

Bond markets ultimately rallied modestly following today's much-anticipated CPI data. This is a departure from recent norms as the last 3 reports have generated some of the biggest reactions in each of the past 3 months. Still, the result is understandable...

After a longstanding reign as one of the most meaningful market movers, inflation data became an outcast for most of the recovery from the financial crisis. Old dog market watchers probably scoffed in 2011-2015 when I said that "no one cared"...

It's hard to appreciate just how different the trading session was for stocks compared to bonds. To be sure, a near 5bp drop in 10yr yields is "nice," but it pales in comparison to the amount of movement suggest by or seen in equities markets...

In terms of 10yr yields, bond markets have been locked in the same narrow range for a week and half. Even when the range was only 2 days old last week, it seemed likely that it would come to a head by tomorrow's CPI data. With the boundaries still...

Bonds had already begun the process of rallying in response to geopolitical risk yesterday afternoon. Notably, the headlines hit after the 3pm CME close (which marks the end of the day for a decent chunk of bond market participation). As subsequent trading...

There are several definitions of "pain trade" floating around on the web, and I'm not a huge fan of any of them. The top google hit is particularly bad, despite having elements that do indeed jive with how the average trader might describe...

Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory and continued to lose ground through the early afternoon. After consolidating in extreme fashion over the past 2 weeks, stocks finally popped higher. This is one of the few cases where I'm happy to...

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