Harvesting of the first 2015 rice crop began in late December, with the bulk of the main paddy crop to be harvested from April. Current production prospects are mixed, reflecting the impact of heavy rains in western, central and eastern parts as a result of cyclone Chedza, and dry condition in southern regions.

In central regions, which produce the bulk of the national rice output (including Vakinankaratra, Itasy and Alaotra Mangoro), following a period of below-average precipitation in October and November, rainfall levels increased in subsequent months with cumulative levels for the October 2014-January 2015 period close to the average. However, the passing of cyclone Chedza in mid-January, which traversed southern areas, brought abundant precipitation across large parts of the country, causing flooding and consequently crop damage. Assessments are still underway to determine the extent of the damage on the agriculture sector, with preliminary estimates indicating approximately 24 000 hectares of flooded paddy fields, representing less than 2 percent of the national paddy area. Heavy downpours are expected in some areas until mid-February.

Southern regions, particularly Androy, Anosy and Astsimo-Andrefana, which have recorded two consecutive years of reduced cereal harvests, experienced generally below-average rains since the start of the cropping season in October 2014. This has raised concerns about the prospects of a third consecutive depressed cereal output in 2015.

Insufficient funding for the final third year of the anti-locust campaign is expected to disrupt operations. Any increase in the population of locusts could result in further crop damage and losses in the affected areas.

Partial recovery in 2014 rice crop

Based on the findings from the joint 2014 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), the 2014 rice output increased by 10 percent to 4 million tonnes. Despite uneven rains in the south and the impact of locusts, generally favourable weather conditions were observed in the main rice producing regions of the centre and north and, in combination with an estimated increase in the area planted, contributed to the annual production gain. However, the rice output remained 9 percent below the previous five-year average. Maize and cassava production in 2014 were estimated to have decreased, with sharp declines recorded in the southern regions of Atsimo Andrefana, Androy and Anosy. Overall, the national 2014 cereal harvest is put at 4.35 million tonnes, higher than 2013’s output but about 9 percent below the previous five-year average.

Rice prices, both local and imported varieties, have been trending upwards since July 2014. Despite these seasonal increases, as of December 2014, prices were still about 9 percent (local) and 4 percent (imported) below their year-earlier values, reflecting both the improved 2014 rice output and adequate volumes of imported rice. In the last quarter of 2014, prices of local rice increased at a slower rate than imported varieties, as traders offloaded stocks and the early rice harvest in December increased market supplies.

Cyclone damage and dry conditions aggravates food insecurity

Results from preliminary assessments indicate that approximately 21 000 people have been displaced, and nearly 174 000 affected as a result of cyclone Chedza. Damage to rice crops could result in production shortfalls in affected areas; however, assessments are needed to determine the extent to crop damage and losses. In southern regions, dry conditions since the beginning of the cropping season in October 2014 have increased concerns over the impact on production. These areas have recorded sharp drops in cereal production in 2013 and 2014, and a third successive production decline would be expected to further aggravate the low levels of food security. In Atsimo Andrefana and Androy, the 2014 CFSAM noted an increased prevalence of food insecurity, reflecting the reduced cereal harvests. Rates of food insecurity in Atsimo Andrefana and Androy were estimated at 74 and 83 percent in 2014, respectively, compared to 39 and 65 percent in the previous year.

The Government, in coordination with UN agencies, is providing emergency assistance to the cyclone-affected populations.