McCain’s Iraq Problem

Iraq’s recent upsurge in violence spells trouble for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is essentially resting his candidacy on the fact that violence in Iraq has receded. McCain claims success for the surge of 30,000 U.S. troops that he supported last year in the face of intense opposition even from his own party.

It should be no suprise, however, that violence in Iraq is rising again. Many Iraq experts predicted it would. The relative calm of the past few months was never entirely attributable, as McCain often implies, to the troop surge. Two other factors were at least if not more important: the ceasefire by radical Shiite cleric Moktadr Sadr and the surprise “Sunni Awakening” among former insurgents who turned against foreign extremists. These Sunnis have been paid and armed by the United States as euphemistically named “Concerned Local Citizens.”

As many as 80,000 of these former insurgents are on the U.S. payroll. They are supposed to be subsumed into the Iraqi police and army.

That process is not going well, however, since the Shiite government does not necessarily want Sunnis in its security forces. The ceasefire also is breaking down. The new clashes between government and Sadr forces in the south appears related to jockeying in advance of provincial elections scheduled for October, which of course precedes November.

At best, the new fighting will force a “pause” — another euphemism — in troop withdrawals, undermining McCain’s argument that the surge is working.

At worst, Iraqi power struggles seem timed for a full boil this summer, at the peak of the presidential campaign.