Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton whose positions in the primaries remained little challenged, even when there were times that evoked doubt(s) in the minds of people regarding the invincibility of their nomination(s), have their situation now changed not just with their nominations cleared but with their ideas – campaign strokes and initiatives – strangling and forcing them to adopt fresh, innovative, ideas to win the hearts of voters. Both are now compelled to move to a different orientation with vigor and enthusiasm. Connectedness with voters is key to engagement in Politics just as connectedness with students is key to engagement in Education.

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee.

This also marks the time for making favorable shifts in position/statements taken during the primaries by the contestants with the advantage of forgiveness due to the shifting nature of the contest itself (a straight contest as rivals now ). Past few weeks and the next few weeks are/will be notable for very special events with enormous potential to distract the mood and attention of voters. Twists and turns arising from their statements and counter statements every alternate day; uncertainty and financial turmoil from the Brexit referendum; U.S. House floor having witnessed the Congressional sit-in; local issues of the community staring at the local leaders; mass shootings; recent terror attack in Istanbul airport in Turkey; and the like(s).

Here’s an idea from a common man trusting logic and commonsense more for problem solving than any technical expertise with in depth knowledge of issues :

Figure below presents a simple view of the candidates’ strategy to retain existing voters and attract new voters with existing and new issues/programs.

1. Say, you’ve created a loyal segment of voters; Say, you would like to maintain your lead in this segment now: It is time to reinforce your ‘slogans’ which already made an impact adding – ” I’m the best; I’m your real leader; and we’re firmly united.” in good earnest. Simple tweak but probably will prove highly effective to the loyal voters. Loyal, they are expected to remain !

2. In this case you will target voters who either hadn’t registered yet and those who hadn’t voted earlier in addition to fence sitters.. You’ll focus on the demography, geography, and lifestyle characteristics of the voters from the info base your party makes available. It depends upon the strength of the programs/benefits that the party advocates and embeds them in the voters’s minds, so that this new segment will be convinced that there are significant benefits in participation. Candidates may organize special meetings of the first time voters in districts presided and conducted by a group comprising “a prominent political leader; prominent local industrialist; and a prominent local academician from an institution”. This will likely boost the credibility of the candidate. (It is significant to note that in the last week’s Brexit vote, the first timers/younger voters specially in the age group 18 – 24 constituted only 34% while among the older voters it was 85%). Local agents of the parties need to manage these meets effectively.

3 and 4 in the figure deal with attracting new voters with new programs. Creating new benefits to voters primarily would aim at an innovative program tied to the quality of life of people. The central program element underlying the strategy is to establish the party in such a manner that it will be identified with the party in future. One needs to study what the common voter wants that Washington is not giving them and how his attitude can change if the want is fulfilled. Donald Trump is in an excellent position to effect the strategy either singly or in partnership with a highly resourceful new product developer, (say, an “affordable electric car” for every common man, even as I may sound crazy !) filling it with any of his business products while adding benefits of excellent durability; hazzle free maintenance; and/or a highly reliable service at no cost. Imagine making this a promise at this stage first, and when you sit on the throne making it viable in every district; in every state; in America. Well, if only the horse can fly ! The “brand” will be in everyone’s lips and the party’s presence will be firmly established.

Figure 2 below shows a matrix providing a ‘subjective assessment’ of the candidates’ strength as at present.

The matrix is based on my perception with no empirical data/analysis in any manner. This is likely to change as the campaign momentum picks up further in the coming weeks. The factors considered are not exhaustive and limited to only those that many analysts/experts discuss in their pieces of observations.

To conclude : Whichever candidate sees an opportunity (the one new, innovative program appealing to a majority of voters ) and guides his/her campaign and advertisement pitch in this direction strongly in the next 2 to 3 months will be worth watching.

Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Presidential nominee, is in Phase II to boost his vote gathering process. It is essential to look for and concentrate upon courses of action that will be perceived as satisfactory or good enough by people. Leaders like Donald Trump should spend at least 40% of their time in the following activities to attain a reasonable level of success. His immediate action shall now be to give shape to the following plan in the belief that the chief aim of the leader is to get the right program, in the right doses, in the right places (state, district, precinct … …), at the right time, in the right quality, at a reasonable cost to the program planner as well as to the large beneficiary, that is, the people.

Three aspects need special mention and concentrated attention here : Need assessment; Plan; and Program with Actions.

1. Need Assessment : The figure below presents in the form of a Flow Chart, the key operations/events comprising the above process.

Need assessment.

Each program offered by the candidate should essentially be based upon the needs of people, an estimate of needs, allocation of priorities, a reasonable budget determined by the party committee, and the necessary activities for implementation. The campaign chief needs to get his members to high speed. A well designed plan is one that meets the present needs in terms of people security, social harmony, financial independence … … and which can be easily and readily adapted to future circumstances. This ensures a satisfying model plan shaping and influencing the overall mental and emotional perceptions of people/voters individually and collectively. This will also help prove to the rival parties and people that there always exists a better way of doing things.

2. Plan : ( Decision-Center for Communication). It is customary for the party organization to plan suitable programs for people with a view to enhance their quality of living and communicate in a way people easily understand them. The figure below presents the chief activities of a typical party decision center for communication.

Plan

The crux of this exercise lies in converting the voter(s) demands into programs, analysed and assessed by an instituted committee. The preliminary programs are finalised after incorporating the ideas of the members of the committee and the same sent to the party constituted Propaganda Centers which by suitable methods communicate/convey the message to people accomplishing the desired ends. This is both an effective and efficient step in the process of election campaign of every contestant. The committee performing this exercise is essentially a facilitating device in the hands of the person shaping the course of the campaign.

3. Program and Actions : (Role of the Vetting Committee) The figure below gives the structure and responsibilities of the vetting committee.

Vetting Committee

To promote and in a move to give the finishing touches to the envisaged program(s), the vetting committee comprising its “centers of practical details” play a significant role. It will have major activities divisions and minor activities divisions vetting thoroughly the program in terms of practicability, applicability, adaptability, and utility to people. This committee will essentially act as a ‘problem solving committee’ playing a key role in the campaign process. It will require and receive inputs from various sources as ” survey data; contestant’s conference meets and exchanges; reports of rallies and mass meetings; and any other means of extracting support of candidate with adequate feedback ” . The committee will apply the knowledge, wisdom, skill, and technology in a systematic manner to achieve better and profitable courses of action collectively. This exercise is an example of scientific application of a process rather than relying exclusively on the intuitive processes of one or a small group of heads as is usually the case uptil now. It is also symbolic of the ‘party unity’ capable of raising its image amongst the public. This is real strength.

In conclusion, such processes and ethos of the party organization(s) will strongly impact and influence the faith and belief(s) of the people. It will also provide the political organization an opportunity to engage in scientific and technical skills of the organization in the broader context facilitating the diagnosis, formulation, and implementation of proposals.The quest for a better way of doing things – as we commonly emphasize in Business – is also now becoming the professional duty of every politician in this new age in addition to the recognition of the moral obligation of every politician to serve people with high quality stewardship. This alone will make a positive contribution to sustaining and enhancing the peace, harmony, and quality of life of the society in the country, region, and the world.

The discussion cum responses of the ‘Libertarian Town Hall’ this night appeared more of a mechanical exercise than anything energetic or forceful in raising the temperature and impact of the National Election Process despite the excellent opportunities provided by the events of the past 10 days (Orlando shooting on 12th; Hillary Clinton’s attack on Trump’s tax policies; Trump’s forceful rebuttal with stinging counterattacks; Democratic sit-in on the Gun issue simultaneously happening; Brexit vote just hours away … ) for strong expressions and substantive display of positions with powerful supporting points.

The lone saving grace is that the 10 to 12 audience questions covered the entire spectrum of issues of concern to the American public without any exhibition of vigorous embedding of thoughts in the minds of people by the candidates. They did answer questions, but even their points of significance failed to hammer convincingly leaving the viewers feeling, possibly, that the opportunity went missing.

The sole reason could be that the chief focus of the candidates has been to enter the Presidential Debate Process requiring at least 15% of votes in the polls ( at this moment they hold 9% ) fulfilling the requirement.

The candidates and the moderator.

Gov Gary Johnson and Gov William Weld are the Libertarian Party candidates in the field – both two term Republican Governors – the first being the former Governor of New Mexico and the latter the former Governor of Massachusetts. Both became Governors before holding any other elected office. Chris Cuomo of CNN moderated the discussion.

The salient points of discussion are cited below :

1. Consider strongly the choice of a “Easy Work Visa” program besides other measures of proper vetting … . etc on the issue of ‘ immigration ‘ rather than rounding up and deportation which will escalate fear, deep disrespect of enforcement machinery, and be highly unrealistic.

2. Take ‘guns’ out of the hands of mentally ill and potential terrorists. Establishing a 1000 person FBI Task Force for the gun issue and control measures was a part of the solution offered by the Libertarian candidates.

3. Have a “Single Federal Consumption Tax” (after a due process of debate and as many tweaks as needed to achieve a new tax code ) which will eliminate lobbyists and make it revenue neutral (the specifics are not detailed).

4. Involve the Congress in a full discussion whether and how we should intervene in foreign conflicts without losing the dominant military position that America holds.

Maureen Murella, posing question on drug addiction.

5. Reduce death, disease, crime, and corruption with emphasis on “No more Overdose Deaths” – on issues of drug addiction and control pointing to the programs that many countries throughout the world offer, after realising that the Quality and Quantity of the drugs (Marijuana/Heroin) need stringent monitoring while tracing this as health issues and not criminal Justice issues.

6. Give a level playing field for countries with Free Trade Deals as that will raise the beneficial influence of productivity increase; high wage jobs will increase; and a resultant increase in wage levels manifest. The low wage jobs that will likely get eliminated will suitably be compensated by the increase in jobs with a concurrent increase in investment for growth.

7. Sustain the good work done by Planned Parenthood realising the ‘right to abortion’; treating the issue as one within the constitution and not spreading the canard that ‘government should play a role’.

Question on Human Rights Protection.

8. Embrace as pluralists to protect the rights of people, specially the ‘Human Rights’ of people of African descent. William Weld referred to his efforts in establishing the African Caribbean Commission during his term as the Governor of Massachusetts for two terms.

Question on Education.

9. Encourage competition in education – ‘raison d’etre’ – for improving the quality of all programs tracing the effort and impact both candidates engaged in and imparted during their term(s) as Governors.

Absence of any constructive approaches to peoples’ welfare; Absence of any original thoughts from the candidates of the two major parties; and Absence of decorous discussions on issues of concern from candidates but rather slandering each other – were the reasons for their ‘running’ – averred both Gary Johnson and William Weld.

William Weld concluded the Town Hall meet with the statement and expression of the 2016 American Presidential Election as ” Monkey Business “.

That 2016 Presidential Election in America is of great import and consequence not just to the nation (America) but to most countries of the world is more than plainly evident to many. There seems to be a great upheaval with intense changes afoot in the manner the campaign initiatives will take course and evolve – just as in businesses companies facing groundbreaking changes and competition would renew, redirect, and reestablish procedures and processes.

The presumptive Presidential nominees of both the major parties (Democratic and Republican) will be associated with the American Election History in terms of their unicity – Hillary Clinton (D) being the first female Presidential nominee of a major political party, and Donald Trump (R), the first outsider winning the Presidential nomination through near self funding. People will now be keenly watching the “value premises” that both candidates can offer to the nation and the world. This alone can distinguish and set them apart in the race to the White House.

Detailed below is an outline of the “American Election Model” with little elaboration.

The figure below represents the Three Phases of the election:

The three phases of the American Presidential Election.

Phase I constitutes the Primaries when the focus is mainly on achieving the party nomination, and dominated by the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates with less attacks on the rival party. It generally assumes a linear progression.

phase II constitutes the duel between the presumptive nominees of the major parties centered on the performance record of the incumbent government vis-à-vis the national and global challenges in addition to the proposals to meet the growing challenges as seen by the candidates on issues of importance. The campaign in this phase gets energetic and forceful with the curve taking a ‘steep progression’. The resultant impact on the voters is strong.

Phase III constitutes the Presidential Debate phase where the candidates on a tete-a-tete (one-on-one) get an opportunity to defend and substantiate their ideas while countering the opponents with specific plan of actions. The curve in this case assumes a progression that is somewhere between that in Phase I and Phase II. Impact on voters continues to be strong while a majority of undecided/independent voters make up their minds in favor or otherwise of a particular candidate.

(A) The candidates view their ‘revenues’ in terms of Campaign Finance and how it can be raised and increased. It could be from the party pool; donors (individual, associates, and corporate/businesses); and personal finance. What is the total amount, and how the donors are attracted constitute the strategic moves.

Campaign Finance

(B) Here a ‘mission’ statement is designed reinforcing the ‘value premise’ – (as for e.g. Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again”); What the candidate needs to attempt is to attract voters (both existing/loyal and new) with ideas/programs/plans for the nation’s growth – just as in business new elements/features/applications are added to the product – reflecting on the emerging new situations/directions and keeping track of the changes in economy/trade/security/health/education etc. which will influence financial, social, and emotional status alterations in the habits of the people. Design activities comprising Election meetings, town hall meets, volunteer activities, door to door campaigns and the likes addressing the party’s messages and promises to increase the % of support base need to be accelerated. The Campaign coverage may include print media; social/digital media; TV time; propaganda Videos; pamphlets; slogans; free accessories; stump speeches; .. … .. constituting the communication channels. The candidates need to clearly indicate where they want to take the nation in, say, immediate terms (1 to 2 years); medium term (3 to 5 years); and long term (10 years and beyond) exciting the people with credible ideas and information. What impact these ideas, simple as well as transformative, can make to the nation and how the people will benefit are the key imperatives here.

Class of Voters

(C) People who vote constitute the judges determining the success of any candidate. They comprise in this case male(s) and female(s) – Whites, African Americans, Latinos, Jews, Asian Americans, Muslims, and other immigrants. What the candidate needs to do is to match the ‘value premise’ to all these segments of population in ways appealing to each group. The candidate needs to get to the point swiftly in the next couple of months. It is more than just necessary in respect of these diverse groups to be specific and realistic with suitable action plans to say what the candidate wants to do lest misinterpretations evoke adverse reactions. It is incumbent on the candidate to be certain and prove beyond any doubt the voters of his/her programs and the benefits that they will realise.

In sum, it will be interesting to watch how the two major candidates travel the next two phases of their campaign journey (s) with plans to influence securely, socially, and financially the concerns of the people !

“Dieu avec nous”

Wednesday, June 15, 2016 – 10. 49 p.m. (IST)

Tidbit : ” In an Election year it is not necessary to fool all the people all the time – only in the period just before the Election “.

For every distinguished and famous person whose virtues are sung and lauded in public, there remain 1000s of the same ilk who remain(ed) unsung and unnoticed. They neither flaunted their prosperity nor touted their famed deeds in excessive or unrestrained manner. Economic gap is the ‘culprit’ (and the main reason) that is bandied about in every forum, meeting, and convention – local, regional, and international today. That my father belongs in the latter category is saying the obvious. He passed away a couple of decades ago at the age of 71. He began his career a little less than a decade before India’s Independence and retired in early 1980s. If it is the mobile revolution and the millennials challenging the growth of every household now, it was the period of our First industrial revolution , and the freedom inspired populace that challenged our growth then.

Here is placing the 5 critical traits that he possessed which stood him in good stead in his life :

1. Well known in his family and friends’ circles for his principled stand on issues; discipline at home and at work; consistency in actions; and fairness in dealing with peers and subordinates – he made his mark during service and gained honors at his farewell (upon superannuation) as a person defending the cause of “excellence at work”, the words his chief showered on him with.

2. He will always attempt new things with preparation in his popular ” Wednesday assembly ” in office for friendly ends on departmental issues, something which was the first of its kind in his section in the 1950s and 1960s. Effective work put in by his people will always clock more than 125% bringing the best return in terms of efficiency and repute on a ‘time study’ if anyone cared to carry out then.

3. He had great respect for independent abilities and he always pushed enthusiasm and right attitude over skills in the strong belief that skills can always be acquired anytime at work which helped him create an effective workable structure at work and in the family. “No loosy-goosy operations” – his often repeated words.

4. Commonsense and intuition for finding solutions to problems were his major tools while discussing problem and developing solutions. He will toss his ideas/views on the table and let others come out with theirs too. Then he will stitch all the pieces together and create a visible plan of action. When his section wanted to install an air-conditioner in the room, he first tried to get incremental improvements through dampened window screens; erecting shades outside the wall; planting a row of trees along the boundary walls of the compound – all before committing to the air-conditioner installation. These efforts helped cool the room nevertheless. His ideas to stagger decisions without affecting the work performance of people served to enhance his image among the people besides the cost savings it accomplished.

5. He never favored punishment to discipline his children even when he knew that a couple of his children (me included) will react putting him to shame in ways one cannot imagine. He’ll rather speak to the erring child and instruct him/her to understand how he/she could have attempted the task in a rightful and easy way. When I read today of children engaged in parent shaming on Social Media and parents feeling shocked and disgusted, I can only admire his foresight besides the conviction that children will become better by polite treatment. At work, to anyone who comes to him saying that the many attempts he made to get the railway signal function proved only futile, he’ll politely respond, ” give it another try, you may succeed”. There have been more occasions of his people coming out successfuly with joy after that than there were failures. We term it ‘perseverance’ in management parlance today. He had to wear the many hats of a mentor, an officer, a trainer, a reformer at different times as needed to accomplish his task(s). All this, while he was in the ‘line’ position with little power or authority.

The many qualities I shared with my father and that make me proud despite the generational shifts in social relationships, economic independence, technological advancements, spiritual solace that have diffused through the society shrouding and mystifying at the same time the behavior and attitude of people today are as concerning as they are coincidental.

1. He stood highly principled on issues even at the risk of losing fortunes; So did I … till now

2. He always aimed at perfection in action, so he will attain excellence for sure; So did I … till now

3. He was a stickler for timely completion of tasks, punctuality, and transparency; So have I been … till now

4. He was an independent operator, always willing to support anyone who comes with a clear and ‘specific’ work plan or agenda; So am I … till now

5. He always expressed his views candidly and openly whether for or against; So did I … till now

6. He considered himself rich because he did not borrow anything from anyone, anytime, anywhere; So did I … till now

Like father, like son; Yes and No; … … There are many differences between us that set us apart in a way that makes each of us “unique”. Let me reserve that for another occasion …

His biggest and singular contribution at work was to ensure the integrity of the systems in practice, a characteristic that is on the decline and is almost invisible in this new age.

My Father – Six months before reaching the Lord’s abode.

He conducted himself so well that we, children, learnt more by observing him and his actions than listening to him. Right through his life ‘he lived within his means’ knowing clearly where the line needs to be drawn. We stand proud of his upbringing because he and my mom did their best they could with what little (or more ?) they knew about raising children of an average middle-class family in the 1950s and 1960s. It was a parenting challenge to bring up 4 sons and 2 daughters with a work schedule requiring odd hours of effort.

” Thank you , Dad ”

” Dieu avec nous ”

Sunday, June 12, 2016 – 12. 59 p.m. (IST)

Tidbit : ” Father is one who endures childbirth without an anaesthetic “.

Donald Trump has clinched the Republican Presidential nomination; and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Presidential nomination with the esteemed endorsements of President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. The former has a rich business record and the latter has rich government experience. Both are in their second phase of the Election Process now. The prevailing perception of people, however, is probably one that also holds both of them as having been cut from the same cloth if trust and overall merit are counted as customary yardsticks.

About Donald Trump, this piece. I am not a supporter of either, living in a different country. I have not come across many analyst (s) confirming that Donald Trump is forging party unity and it is perhaps to the contrary going by the events specially in the last two weeks. Nobody can predict the election result in the circumstances prevailing now. Here’s presenting an optimistic picture for Donald Trump howsoever impractical it may sound to anyone :

The basic premise is : Donald Trump’s core DNA lies in not accepting the status quo.

– Donald Trump wants to make America great again (in his own words ); – Donald Trump wants to recalibrate the Washington powerhouse; – Donald Trump wants to give priority to ‘internal safety’ with nationalistic flavor and fervor; – Donald Trump wants to establish a new model of International Relations; – Donald Trump wants to establish all possible modes of communications with a high degree of cohesion in trade, deals, legislation, … … In essense it boils down to, and emphasising what many (everyone?) may feel delighted to term it as “Recreation of America”. It will constitute the main timber around which all other supporting timbers (economy, trade, health, education, security, foreign policy etc) will revolve. This possibly will constitute his ” key message ” in his General Election Campaign.

It is important for Trump to take this message clearly to his voters just as any speaker’s presentation in a conference will take the conclusions to the delegates. This is also where the abilities and the role of his running mate will assume significance. Picking the right ‘running mate’ – VP – can give the boost required and sow the seeds of self confidence to Donald Trump.

1. Choice of selection of VP should be praised by people with passion to make the campaign steps forward in the right direction. Donald Trump as President will be up against intricate tasks that can be well accomplished by a smart and intelligent person.

2. VP in business parlance is like the right acquisition that can create value to the presidential nominee. People’s choices, preferences, desires, need to be weighed carefully with an assessment of the improvement and adjustment to make in the campaign process. The presidential nominee can better lead delegate, coordinate and direct his main strategic initiatives achieving the goal of his “brand promises”embedded in their minds. Quality of time taken on the selection will be a positive and voluntary move helping to consolidate and avoid distractions. The complexity of today’s politics is very much an imitation of tech advancement in the digital economy and having a smart associate is an imperative. Presidential nominee can get his commitments genuine with solid plans in the eyes of the voters.

Donald Trump will in this phase of election focus passionately on the above two aspects clearly. Despite criticism regarding his bold as brass observations on issues on many occasions he can still grow from being a viable candidate to a highly polished one multiple times better than many would imagine required for a President.

Just as any company courting public controversy will tend to be ‘honest’ about the problems, Donald Trump also needs to express himself honestly without bias to anyone his moves to provide jobs and opportunities to every American amid tumultuous economic situation if only to dispel the fear, depression, and other doubts from the minds of the people.

Two names again come to my mind, even when I am aware that they are far beyond the minds of many who matter :

House Speaker, Paul Ryan.

First, House Speaker, Paul Ryan, who endorsed Donald Trump last week and Trump took his bow promptly in recognition making fair weather and even cutting boon whids. Ryan was cautious though. He said: ” Trump is the best candidate to help establish the agenda that he himself wants to get through Congress. On the issues that make up our agenda we have more common ground than disagreement. It is no secret that we have our differences, I won’t pretend otherwise. And when I feel the need to, I’ll continue to speak my mind”. Yes, he did speak his mind on Trump’s remarks of Judge Curiel being of Mexican heritage when he observed, “it was a textbook language of racism”. Paul Ryan, himself, is a terrific brand with popularity among voters. Notwithstanding his strong desire and commitment to play for the election of House Representatives, and to have the many proposals enacted into law(s) as Speaker of the House, if successful persuasion of Ryan to be the running mate (impossible structurally, and practically) can be achieved it will not only be a pleasant shock but a powerful force causing a huge positive impact unimaginable.

Chris Christie, NJ Governor.

Second, Chris Christie, NJ governor, the first big gun to endorse Donald Trump when the Republican Primary was still open. He has a very decent record of accomplishments at the government level. He cut government spending, reduced government, brought operational reforms, balanced the budget successfully for years, promoted charter schools as educational reform in 2012, brought in pension reform legislation in 2010, Criminal Justice reform in 2012, and, and, MANAGED Hurricane SANDY effectively through aggressive brand of Leadership. He can be an effective asset complementing the governmental and bureaucratic processes. But, here again, the picture may not be practical yet.

Donald Trump is capable of the courage that many will struggle to manifest. His attitude, improper as it may seem to many, many, and many has a streak of negotiating deals while making himself open to new thoughts which may not tread the path of simply going along without conviction. This is where he firmly should take ownership of anything he utters in his attempt to build trust in the next few weeks possibly to force his pace in the campaign. This can erode the fear among people and the establishment that he may possibly rock the Republican boat.

Can Donald Trump convince the people that he alone can bring an ‘entrepreneurial spirit’ into the government ?

Will people listening to his key message honor and be willing to follow, change, develop, and advance progress?

Can he get his work done while adhering to the values of the nation, as many doubt and ask today?

Will Donald Trump raise himself to a level of competence (as demanded by many today) to adapt himself with the reality on issues in the prevailing circumstances ?

The next couple of months will reveal some answers !

“Dieu avec nous ”

Saturday, June 11, 2016 – 11. 49 pm (IST)

Tidbit : ” Always do things that they are not ready to do ; that’s the moment of ‘wow’ ; this makes you push through your moments, you have a breakthrough ” – Marissa Mayer.