May 15, 2014

When Will 2014 California Drought be Over?

Since the 2013
California drought, it has gotten worse in California. The US Drought
Monitor map above shows the intense drought conditions in California in 2014. The
question on everyone’s mind, when will the drought be over?

Weather West has an excellent analysis of the 2014 El Nino conditions
that are developing and how or if it will bring rains to California in 2014.

This is long-range
weather forecasting, still an imperfect science. If you are expecting a definitive
answer, you won’t find it yet so early in the year.

A strong East Pacific El Niño event would likely strengthen
the subtropical branch of the jet stream just west of California during the
canonical wet season. This would direct the storm track squarely into Central
and Southern California, most likely leading to above-normal precipitation in
these regions (and perhaps in far Northern California, as well). In addition,
the occurrence of individual high-intensity storms and rainfall events would
probably be higher than during a typical winter due to the proximity of the
storm track to California. Thus, the risk of flooding may be higher during such
an El Niño event, especially in Southern California.

And

The forecast: El Niño very likely; strong event possible

Recent observations certainly point toward the continued
evolution toward an El Niño state (and very recent observations suggest that
we’re nearly there already). Numerical ocean-atmosphere models—which are used
to make predictions regarding the state of El Niño months in advance—are nearly
unanimous in projecting the development of full-fledged El Niño conditions by
late summer or early fall 2014.