County's future 'looks gray,' says former planner

By Rose Meily, for Silicon Valley Community Newspapers

Posted:
04/30/2014 06:02:37 PM PDT

What will our neighborhoods look like in 30 years? A former county planner says the numbers differ depending on the source, but general projections are the same: California is experiencing a number of structural changes and will be facing bigger challenges than in the past due to population growth, household composition changes and an aging population.

Don Weden, a retired Santa Clara County principal planner, told members of the Silicon Valley Association of Realtors that the California Department of Finance projects Santa Clara County's population of 1.8 million will grow by 140,000 people in 15 years. Growth is projected to occur in the north valley.

As population grows, so will households, but their makeup will change. "The future looks gray," said Weden.

Currently in Santa Clara County, one in 10 persons is age 65 and older. By 2030, one in five persons, or one-fourth of the adult population, will be over 65.

Weden worries because development plans in the 1960s were anchored on the drivable suburban model. Studies show currently one in five Americans over 65 years of age do not drive due to the rising cost of gas and also because they prefer not to.

"Our housing needs and preferences may change as we age," said Weden. "Neighborhoods we thought were fun to grow up in may be problematic to grow old in."

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Weden also projects there will be fewer homeowners than in years past. Studies show the rate of home ownership among the 25-34 year old group has dropped from 40 percent in 2007 to 31 percent in 2010.

Millennials, the generation born between 1980 and 2000, now number 80 million, more than the aging baby boomers. They are projected to soon comprise majority of the country's workforce. Weden said this generation has never known the world without the Internet. Millennials are tech savvy and sought after by businesses and communities, especially here in Silicon Valley. They are the most educated generation in history, but also saddled with much student debt. They are mostly renters not only due to economic necessity but because they want to be mobile, to be free to move from job to job without having to worry about selling a house every time they move.

"They are also less confident in the economics of the American dream. They don't see home ownership as an end goal," said Weden.

Also important in this generation is not to drive. Studies show 88 percent in this age group want to live in an urban setting that is walkable. This is why it is critical for cities to focus on planning walkable urban neighborhoods, instead of drivable suburban communities, said Weden. Baby boomers would also prefer it, especially once they can no longer drive.

Weden said the evolution from the predominantly drivable suburban neighborhoods to walkable urban neighborhoods is gradually taking place in Bay Area cities. These neighborhoods need not be exotic, but they should be complete, offering residents of all ages an active lifestyle, with services and shops, including grocery stores and other amenities.

Will Millennials change their minds and value home ownership more once they have children? "That is an unknown," said Weden.