Dark Snow Project: Crowd-Source Funded Science for Greenland

"There's no place on Earth that is changing faster--and no place where that change matters more--than Greenland." So said 350.org founder Bill McKibben, in a 2012 Rolling Stone magazine interview. As Earth Week 2013 draws to a close, I want to draw your attention to a unique effort to learn more about why Greenland is melting so fast--a crowd-funded research project that anyone can contribute to, which aims to answer the "burning question": How much does wildfire and industrial soot darken the ice, increasing melt? The Dark Snow Project, the first-ever Greenland expedition relying on crowd-source funding, hopes to raise $150,000 to mount a field research campaign to find out. The project is the brainchild of Dr. Jason Box, Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS), and one of the world's leading experts on Greenland's glaciers. He has set up a website called darksnowproject.org to help raise the funds for the field campaign, and has raised about half of the needed amount as of mid-April.

Figure 1. Over the course of several years, turbulent water overflow from a large melt lake carved this 60-foot-deep (18.3 meter-deep) canyon in Greenland's Ice Sheet (note people near left edge for scale). Image credit: Ian Joughin, University of Washington.

2012: Unprecedented melting in GreenlandWatching the weather events of 2012 over Greenland made all seasoned climate watchers a little queasy. The vast ice sheet on the island holds enough water to raise global sea levels by 7.36 meters (24.15 feet) were it all to melt, and the ice melt season of 2012 gave notice that an epic melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet may be underway. According to NOAA's 2012 Arctic Report Card, the duration of melting at the surface of the ice sheet in summer 2012 was the longest since satellite observations began in 1979, and the total amount of summer melting was nearly double the previous record, set in 2010 (satellite records of melting go back to 1979.) A rare, near-ice sheet-wide surface melt event melted 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet on July 11 - 12. While a similar melt event at the summit occurred 1889, but the 1889 event has no basis in the instrumental record from coastal Greenland. It's instead likely that 2012 was Greenland's warmest summer in at least 863 years, since the medieval warm period (see http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=677 and http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=725). The incredibly warm temperatures have been blamed on highly unusual atmospheric circulation and jet stream changes, which were also responsible for 2012's unusually wet summer weather in England. It would not be a surprise if this sort of summer began occurring more often, since temperatures on top of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been rising six times faster than the global average during the past twenty years. A May 2013 Geophysical Research Letters paper by McGrath et al., "Recent warming at Summit, Greenland: Global context and implications", concluded that by 2025, there is a 50% chance of ice sheet-wide melt events happening annually. The ice sheet reached its darkest value on record in 2012. The darkened surface was due to below average summer snow, soot particles from pollution and forest fires, and record melting. A darker ice sheet absorbs more solar energy, in a vicious cycle that raises temperatures, melts more ice, and further darkens the ice sheet. The amount of melting that was caused by soot from forest fires is important to know, since global warming is likely to increase the amount of forest fires in coming decades. However, the amount of forest fire soot landing on the Greenland Ice Sheet is almost completely unknown, which is why Dr. Box is determined to find out, via the Dark Snow Project.

Figure 2. Smoke from a fire in Labrador, Canada wafts over the Greenland ice sheet on June 17, 2012, as seen in this cross-section view of aerosol particles taken by NASA's CALIPSO satellite. Image credit: Dr. Jason Box, Ohio State University.

Greenland causing 25% of global sea level riseIn a landmark study published in November 2012 in Science, 47 researchers from 26 laboratories reported that the amount of ice being lost from Greenland and Antarctica has tripled since the 1990s, with Greenland contributing more than twice as much to global sea level rise than Antarctica. The study, "A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance", found that the two ice sheets were responsible for 20% of the global sea level rise of 3.1 mm/year during the 20-year period 1992 - 2011. The remainder of the rise was due to expansion of the water due to heating of the oceans, melting of mountain glaciers, and unsustainable pumping of ground water. Said co-author Erik Ivins of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "The pace of ice loss from Greenland is extraordinary, with nearly a five-fold increase since the mid-1990s." As of 2011, Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise on its own had risen to 20 - 25%, according to an international research group led by the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, in an article published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters on 1 June 2012. If the current exponential ice loss trends continue for the next ten years, Greenland's contribution to sea level rise will double to 1.4 mm/yr by 2022, the researchers said. Many sea level rise researchers expect global sea level to rise by about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2100. During the 20th century, global sea level rise was about 0.18 meters (7 inches.)

Figure 3. Monthly smoothed (purple) and unsmoothed (blue) values of the total mass lost from the Greenland Ice Sheet (in Gigatons, Gt) from measurements by the GRACE satellites between March 2002-September 2012. An approximate equivalent global sea level rise figure is on the right axis. Note that the decline in ice mass lost from Greenland is not a straight line--it is exponential, meaning that more ice loss is lost each year than in the previous year. Image credit: 2012 Arctic Report Card.

Will Antarctica be more important than Greenland for sea level rise?Although melting from Greenland is currently raising global sea level by about a factor of two more than Antarctica melting is, that situation may change later this century. A 2013 study by Dahl-Jensen et al. looked at a new ice core drilled from the bottom-most depths of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The core suggests that the ice in Greenland may have partially survived the warm Eemian period before the Ice Age, approximately 118,000 - 126,000 years ago, when Greenland temperatures were 5- 8°C warmer than present-day temperatures. Global sea level during the Eemian was 4 - 8 meters (13 - 26 ft) higher than the present sea level, and the scientists estimated that melting from Greenland was responsible for 2 meters (6.6 ft) of this sea level rise. This implies that Antarctica was responsible for 50 - 75% of global sea level rise during the Eemian, and thus we might expect Antarctica to take over as the dominant source of sea level rise later this century, when global temperatures may to rise to levels similar to those experienced during the Eemian.

Video 1. Glaciologist Dr. Jason Box and 350.org founder Bill McKibben plug the Darksnow project in this January 2013 video by Peter Sinclair. There's some impressive footage of the record Greenland snow melt of summer 2012 sweeping away a 20-ton tractor that was attempting to repair a bridge washed out by the raging Watson River on July 11, 2012 in Kangerlussauaq, Greenland. The driver escaped unharmed.

Support the Dark Snow ProjectOne of Dr. Box's collaborators, photographer James Balog, who created the amazing time-lapse Greenland glacier footage in the fantastic 2012 "Chasing Ice" movie, puts it like this: "Working in Greenland these past years has left me with a profound feeling of being in the middle of a decisive historic moment--the kind of moment, at least in geologic terms, that marks the grand tidal changes of history." On that note, I encourage you all to support the Dark Snow Project. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:S FL may get cold!!:)Friday NightClear. Low of 55F. Breezy and i have prom that night!!:)

I had to check our temps after your post 'cause I thought for sure no more 50's for lows and no more 70's for highs this year but I was wrong! They are showing 59 here Fri night with 77 high for a couple of days.

Quoting icmoore:Good morning. The NWS Tampa Bay area is saying because of differing timing and locations on the system they will keep rain chance in the chance category and wait for more model runs. So it is wait and see. Pinellas county at least where I am at in Madeira Beach could use some rain lately it all goes north and south of here or fires up inland.

good morning!, yes we sure do need some rain, most of the models this morning keep us on the very light rain side of all whats coming, i sure hope that changes this coming week..we'll see how all this progresses, maybe by monday they will know better.

Good morning. The NWS Tampa Bay area is saying because of differing timing and locations on the system they will keep rain chance in the chance category and wait for more model runs. So it is wait and see. Pinellas county at least where I am at in Madeira Beach could use some rain lately it all goes north and south of here or fires up inland.

WED-SAT...WHATEVER AGREEMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE IS GONE AFTERDAY 5...AS THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO OFFER INCREASINGLY DISPARATESOLUTIONS W/R/T LOCAL SENSIBLE WX. MOREOVER...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITYIS PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITHBOTH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS IN HOW TO HANDLE THE STRONG NRN STREAMTROUGH...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARFL. WED INTO THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPSOVER THE GOMEX AND...IN SOME FORM ...SLIDES EAST OVER OR VERY NEARPENINSULAR FL. AFTER THE DAY PERIOD THU...THE GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCHGOES INTO THE TANK. THE GFS SPINS UP THE LOW JUST EAST OF FL AND HASIT MAKE AN IMMEDIATE LEFT TURN NWD UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMHAS A PRETTY BIZARRE SOLUTION THAT GOES COMPLETELY AT ODDS WITH ITSPREV RUNS...CUTTING OFF THE H50 MUCH FARTHER WEST AND BUILDING ADOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS IN A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK.THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH-DAMPENED SURFACE LOW/WAVE THAT SQUIRTS EWDTHROUGH THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND SRN BAHAMA CHAIN. BY NEXT SAT...THEGFS SHOWS FL UNDER A STOUT NW FL OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WHILETHE ECM HAS EQUALLY STRONG FLOW...ONLY IT`S ONSHORE WITH SHOWERYWEATHER ACROSS ECFL.

THINK THE SMART TACK HERE IS TO SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION OFA MORE COHERENT LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE WED-THU...THEN MOVINGOUT OF THE PICTURE SOMETIME ON FRI. THIS SEEMS TO KEEP WITH THEGENERAL IDEA THAT THE EARLIER GUIDANCE PORTENDED. RAIN CHANCESREMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR APRIL...40-50 PCT...(AND MAY WIND UP HIGHER ASTHE EVENT DRAWS NEAR) BEFORE TAPERING BACK FRI ONWARD. MAX TEMPSNEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MINSNEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WED-SAT...WHATEVER AGREEMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE IS GONE AFTERDAY 5...AS THE GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO OFFER INCREASINGLY DISPARATESOLUTIONS W/R/T LOCAL SENSIBLE WX. MOREOVER...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITYIS PRETTY MUCH NON-EXISTENT AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITHBOTH THEIR OWN PREVIOUS RUNS IN HOW TO HANDLE THE STRONG NRN STREAMTROUGH...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH LINGERING SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARFL. WED INTO THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPSOVER THE GOMEX AND...IN SOME FORM ...SLIDES EAST OVER OR VERY NEARPENINSULAR FL. AFTER THE DAY PERIOD THU...THE GUIDANCE PRETTY MUCHGOES INTO THE TANK. THE GFS SPINS UP THE LOW JUST EAST OF FL AND HASIT MAKE AN IMMEDIATE LEFT TURN NWD UP THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMHAS A PRETTY BIZARRE SOLUTION THAT GOES COMPLETELY AT ODDS WITH ITSPREV RUNS...CUTTING OFF THE H50 MUCH FARTHER WEST AND BUILDING ADOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS IN A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK.THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH-DAMPENED SURFACE LOW/WAVE THAT SQUIRTS EWDTHROUGH THE FL STRAITS/CUBA AND SRN BAHAMA CHAIN. BY NEXT SAT...THEGFS SHOWS FL UNDER A STOUT NW FL OF COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WHILETHE ECM HAS EQUALLY STRONG FLOW...ONLY IT`S ONSHORE WITH SHOWERYWEATHER ACROSS ECFL.

.SYNOPSIS...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILLCONTINUE TO FILL AND PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION LEAVING A HIGH ZONALFLOW ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVELINVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALSO WEAKEN TODAY IN RESPONSETO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.THIS WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOWWHICH WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY AN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASHIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA.

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.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND SUNNY SKIES ON TAB FORTODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ANDSUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT/SUPPRESS MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION.THIS OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO IS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITHBRIEF PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SCATTEREDTO ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THEINTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTSWILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS WITHSLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR THE WESTINTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCEPERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOR A SHORT DURATION.BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND ...ALLMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER MOISTURE PATTERN WITH LAYEREDPWAT VALUES INCREASING UP TO 2.00 INCHES OR MORE AS WE TRANSITIONINTO THE MONTH OF MAY...WHEN CONDITIONS NORMALLY START TO BECOMEHOT AND HUMID WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTYPE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON.

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.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYINGAREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFRCONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 17/16ZAND ACROSS TJPS BETWEEN 27/18Z-22Z DUE TO SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT...INCREASING TO 10-15KT AFTER 27/12Z.

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.MARINE...NE SWELL ACTION HAS NOW ARRIVED AT THE OUTER BUOYS NORTHOF THE AREA WITH THE NORTHEAST BUOY 40144 ALREADY REGISTERING SEASOF 9 FEET AT 16 TO 17 SECS...WHILE 41043 SHOWED INCREASING SEASOF 7 AROUND 11 SECS. THE SAN JUAN BUOY SHOWED STEADILY INCREASINGSEAS NOW AROUND 5 FEET AT 10 SECS. EXPECT THE SWELL ACTION TO SPREADACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES AND PEAK ON SUNDAY.