Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Mosul Campaign Day 99, Jan 23, 2017

The big news of the day was the Defense Ministry claiming
that all of east Mosul was liberated when it wasn’t. The Ministry made the
announcement at the start of the day, but was quickly corrected by the forces
on the ground, and the Joint Operations Command. General Yahya Rasool pointed
out that the Rashidiya district in the northeast was still being attacked
by the 9th and 16 Divisions, while the Joint Operations Command told
the media that it was the only body authorized to declare areas of the city
under government control. The Defense Ministry had to acknowledged that it was
mistaken. This happens all the time in Iraq as over anxious officers or
competition between units and commands lead to premature declarations. That was
why many of the neighborhoods in Mosul were said to have been taken multiple
times. The Iraqi government has been pushing a victory narrative for the last
three years, and it often times gets out of hand.

The Islamic State was continuing with its sabotage campaign
and preparing its defenses. It blew
up a power substation in Rashidiya that provided not only electricity for
homes but also for a water treatment facility. In the west it was erecting
barriers on the sections of the destroyed bridges across the Tigris in case the
Iraqi Forces (ISF) attempted to use them. It was also occupying homes along the river
to use them as firing positions. At the same time a Ninewa provincial
councilman told
the press that IS leaders were fleeing towards Syria. No one can tell how the
fight for west Mosul will go. IS defenses collapsed in the east, but there’s no
telling whether that will carry over to the east.

IS has used religious and public facilities as bases for
years now. Mosul was no different as the ISF found that the Grand
Mosque was used to build IEDs and car bombs, as well as fly drones out of.
Earlier the Salam Hospital, which initially was believed to still be a health
facility, turned out to be a major command and control center for the
insurgents.

On the positive side life continued
to return to sections of Mosul. 70 public schools and one private one
re-opened. The government was trying to restart the food ration system within
the city, and clean water was restored to three neighborhoods. Students at
Mosul University showed up for a small demonstration demanding that
their school be rebuilt. IS burned and destroyed large sections of the campus
leaving it a wreck. Approximately 4,000 displaced returned
to the city according to the Displacement Ministry. Almost as soon as an area
is taken people start to come out into the streets, clean up, or head back to
their homes. It’s good to see that the authorities are starting to move into
the city as well. That will all help to win the loyalty of the populace to the Ninewa
council and Baghdad, which was a major goal.

The ISF is putting together its plans for west Mosul.
Commanders are talking about a quick turn around from the liberation of the
east to assaulting the west. Engineers
are building pontoon bridges provided by the United States to cross the Tigris.
Iraqi planes started air strikes on the west as well. There is still going to
be a pause as the various units need to re-supply and re-fit before they take on
the second half of the city, but Iraqis want that to happen as rapidly as
possible.

National Security Adviser Falah al-Fayad said
that there was nothing stopping the Hashd from taking Tal Afar to the west of
Mosul. Turkey continuously complained about that happening when the operation
started claiming that the units would commit abuses. Baghdad and Ankara
reportedly signed an agreement to keep the Hashd out as a result. The ISF
however are making no move to take the town as the original battle plan
collapsed. A decision may have been made to just allow the Hashd to attack the
village as a result, but that’s yet to be seen.

A story is
circulating that IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was wounded in an Iraqi air
strike in the Baaj district by Tal Afar. This is the third time however that
Iraqi sources have aired this story, and there is no way to confirm it.

The United States has stepped up its support for the ISF in
the second phase of the Mosul campaign, but they are not the only member of the
coalition. France
24 had another piece on French Special Forces operating inside Mosul. They
are probably playing the same role as their American counterparts providing
intelligence, air strikes, targeting for artillery, and advice to the Iraqi
military.

The mayor of Sinjar Mahma Khalil called
on the Iraqi forces to rescue Yazidi women captured by the Islamic State and
taken to Mosul. He had information that up to 1,200 Yazidis were within the
city and wanted the military to conduct targeted raids to free them. The Yazidi
population was devastated when the Islamic State swept into their villages in
2014. The women and girls were separated from their families and sold off as
slaves or forced into marriage with IS fighters. Many of them are still
probably in Mosul, with others taken to Syria.

Prime Minister Haidar Abadi announced
an investigation would be launched into reports that the ISF and Hashd have
kidnapped and abused civilians. There was also a video of three unarmed IS
members being executed, which the United Nations demanded be looked into.
Baghdad has launched dozens of these probes, but they are for public
consumption only as nothing ever comes of them. Transparency is not a strength
of the Iraqi government, and it does not want to do anything that might
jeopardize morale and question its fight against the insurgents.

The Ninewa Plains were one of the historic homelands of
Iraq’s Christian community. Much of it has been liberated recently, but the
towns have mostly been destroyed. Al
Jazeera talked with an Assyrian family that went back to Qaraqosh east of
Mosul. It was devastated and there were still plenty of IEDs, leading the
family to say that they were afraid to stay there. That’s the reason why many
of these Christian villages remain uninhabited.

Finally, an Iraqi parliamentarian told New Sabah that former governor
Atheel Nujafi and ex-Finance Minister Rafi Issawi wanted to convert Ninewa into
a federal region after it is freed. MP Abdul Rahim al-Shammari claimed this
plan had the backing of Turkey. Nujafi has little support left in the province,
and is widely unpopular outside of it. An arrest warrant
was even issued for his ties with Turkey back in October, but it was never
acted upon. He is hoping that the Mosul operation will restore him to power,
but he will have to compete with the current Ninewa government along with Prime
Minister Abadi neither of which have any intention of bringing Nujafi back.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com