Steven Levitt documents success of 'Freakonomics'

Economics guru took unconventional path to empire, new film

October 07, 2010|By Melissa Harris | CHICAGO CONFIDENTIAL

University of Chicago professor Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen Dubner have built an empire on "Freakonomics," their surprise best-selling book that has hatched a New York Times blog, radio show, sequel, 20-employee consulting firm and, last weekend, a documentary film.

When I asked Levitt how this all came to be, he took to the question like the economist he is.

Conclusion No. 1: A glowing review in The Wall Street Journal is a great way to launch a book, but it's not enough.

The day after "Freakonomics" was released in April 2005, economist Steven Landsburg, writing in the Journal, described Levitt as the " Indiana Jones" of economics, a "maverick treasure hunter" with "wit, pluck and disregard for conventional wisdom." Dubner was the "cherry on top of the sundae."

The review "was a real gift," said Dee Dee de Bartlo, the book's New York-based publicist.

But she doesn't attribute all of the early "buzz" to the Journal. Teams at publisher HarperCollins spent hours trolling the Internet for writers and bloggers who had ever mentioned Levitt, then e-mailed them asking if they wanted an advance copy of the book. Two influential economics blogs, "Crooked Timber" and "Marginal Revolution," helped begin the word-of- mouth campaign. HarperCollins also hired a Boston consulting firm, BzzAgent Inc., to spread the word to its network of influencers.

"People liked the book, and that's incredibly important to this," Levitt said. "Because what we saw with our book, relative to almost every other book, was that we didn't sell very many at first, and then week after week after week, we sold more and more copies. If you talk to people in publishing, that's extremely rare. Your first and second weeks are usually your best weeks by far. So what was really happening was word-of-mouth."

The book sold nearly 10,000 copies in its first week, according to Nielsen BookScan, which tracks about 75 percent of retail sales.

Conclusion No. 2: Jon Stewart sells a ton of books.

Two weeks later, Levitt appeared on "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart." Sales spiked more than 68 percent that week, according to Nielsen.

"That made us geeky cool," Levitt said. "Before, we were just geeky."

Prior to Stewart's endorsement, de Bartlo said the "Today" show and other mainstream television programs had rebuffed her pitches. Economics, producers repeatedly told her, didn't appeal to their audiences.

"Jon Stewart, at that time, was at the height of his popularity and influence," de Bartlo said. "And once he gave his stamp of approval, the New York media just fell all over themselves. And Stewart's audience is Freakonomics' audience. They're smart people, curious people. They're book buyers."

By mid-May, the book ranked No. 2 on The New York Times best-seller list.

On June 15, 2005, HarperCollins ran the ad in The New York Times. The next day the authors appeared on the "Today" show. So it's impossible, using Nielsen's data at least, to separate the effect of the ad versus the "Today" show versus Father's Day, which generates a lot of book sales.

In raw numbers, those three events sold about 34,000 books versus Stewart's 14,000. The three events combined, however, resulted in a 20 percent increase in week-over-week sales, compared with the 68 percent jump after Levitt appeared on "The Daily Show."

When Levitt told his publishers he didn't believe the Times ad worked, they replied, "'Well, the thing is that authors love to see their books advertised in the newspaper.' And I said, 'I'll tell you what. The next time you're thinking about doing a full-page ad on Freakonomics, why don't you just write me a check for the $50,000 the ad will cost.' … But that didn't work. They continued to buy ads."

Conclusion No. 4: Controversy can sell a ton of books, or it can blow up in your face.

By late September 2005, weekly sales of "Freakonomics" had begun to decline. Conservative commentator and former Education Secretary William Bennett changed that when he claimed on his syndicated radio program that "aborting every black baby" would reduce the crime rate — and cited Freakonomics as his source.

"So all of the liberals who had read our book, and many had by then, were very vehemently saying this has nothing to do with Freakonomics," Levitt said. "But I think a lot of the conservatives, who thought that William Bennett was making sense, they had never heard of the book, and they said, 'Wow, the 'Freakonomics' guys are making this argument. I think I want to go buy the book.'"

But the theory that "there is no such thing as bad publicity" seems to have backfired with the 2009 sequel, "SuperFreakonomics." Levitt said environmental activists, upset over his analysis of global warming, have launched an effective smear campaign against him.

Sales of the sequel have not been as brisk.

Melissa Harris, who points out that the week before Christmas, with 61,000 copies sold, trumps'em all, can be reached at mmharris@tribune.com or 312-222-4582.