If we were to draw up what the Oilers look like right now, before the draft and free agency and the trades of summer, what would it look like? What would represent “mission accomplished” for the Oilers’ brain trust?

As It Stands

The following depth charts are meant only to give an idea of depth at each position, not to mimic line combinations. An asterisk indicates a defenceman who can play either side, UFA and RFA indicate that a player’s contract expires this summer, while BO has nothing to do with a lack of deodorant and everything to do with the player being a possible candidate for a compliance buyout.

Forwards

Defence

Projection

This is where things get a little more interesting. I have axed what strike me as the likely names at each position, and indicated positions that need to be addressed over the summer in red.

Forwards

The changes here include the following:

Unrestricted free agents Lennart Petrell, Jerred Smithson, Ryan Jones, Chris VandeVelde, Tanner House and Darcy Hordichuk are all released. Restricted free agent Antti Tyrvainen have also been let go. Eric Belanger is the subject of a compliance buyout. Ales Hemsky is assumed to have been traded elsewhere.

Retained are restricted free agents Magnus Paajarvi, Sam Gagner, Teemu Hartikainen, Philippe Cornet and Mark Arcobello. Buyout candidates Ryan Smyth and Shawn Horcoff are both retained for the major league roster, while Ben Eager remains buried in the minor leagues.

There were a number of coin flip calls made here. Jerred Smithson is a viable candidate for the fifth centre slot on the NHL roster, though I have indicated him walking. Philippe Cornet is a player who may not be re-signed to a deal with an NHL component; I have kept him in the scenario above on the basis of age (23) and a strong second half but it’s entirely possible the Oilers send him down the line or sign him to an AHL-only deal (and if they choose to do so, that will be completely understandable).

Assuming no trades other than Hemsky, the Oilers have four slots to fill on the major league roster. The bottom three should be easy to fill via free agency; a second line winger in a power forward mould is the toughest of these to fill. Additionally, the Oklahoma City Barons employed a pair of veteran forwards (Josh Green and Jonathan Cheechoo) on AHL-only contracts; it seems sensible to assume that the Oilers will want at least one veteran forward with an NHL deal to help mentor and also to serve as a recall option should the need arise (while Anton Lander is a fine first call-up option, injury or uneven performance could rob the Oilers of recallable depth in a hurry).

Again, I’ve exercised some discretion here. Mark Fistric and Corey Potter are both fine candidates for the six/seven role, but Potter is under contract at a cheap price-point while Fistric seems to be looking for significant dollars in a weak free agent market; hence I’ve opted to keep Potter. Yann Danis is a legitimate candidate for the number three role but is coming off a difficult season; presumably the Oilers would prefer a European free agent with more potential in that slot. Colten Teubert may yet be retained, but given his struggles to crack the Barons’ defence of late and the incoming class, he seems a good bet for departure. I should also note that RFA’s like Peckham and Teubert may have enough value for a trade at the draft.

The Oilers have three slots to fill on the depth chart above. They need to add a top-four defenceman, ideally a top-pairing defenceman, and that’s going to be very difficult indeed. Additionally, they need to overhaul their goaltending behind Devan Dubnyk. Finally, at the AHL level they have a good group of young defenders that are also legitimate recall candidates (I count Klefbom, Fedun and Marincin) so they may not need another defenceman on a two-way deal, but it seems likely that a veteran on an AHL contract could be brought in to stabilize a young defence corps. Both current UFA Garrett Stafford and Randy Jones (on an AHL contract) might fit the bill there.

Total contract count: 19, meaning that at all positions the Oilers would have used 47 of the 50 slots they have on their reserve list.

Recently around the Nation Network

Upshall was signed after a 34-point season, so it's unlikely Dale Tallon had any thoughts that he'd be an "offensive" contributor. Even so, the 10 points he's put up in Florida since signing there suggests to me that his tenure in Sunrise may be ending. Add to that his less-than-stellar underlying numbers and the Panthers' need for a top-9 roster spot and I don't see a way he isn't a UFA come July 5th.

Click the link above to read the whole piece, or feel free check out some of my other pieces here:

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

For the roster that you have listed, there is already approximately $50.5 million spoken for leaving $13.5 million to acquire a #2 G, a top pairing D and 3 F.

Assuming $1.5M for a backup goalie and $6M for a Dman, that leaves $2M per forward for the 3 F needed. And that leaves no wiggle room at the cap.

Thus, as you have pointed out moving one of the big tickets is essential (ie: Hemsky) and having one or two tweeners step up would be very helpful. Fedun instead of N Schultz (for example) would save more than $2.5M to spend elsewhere. An Arcobello or other kid being able to step in for cheap would allow for more money to be spent on a better UFA elsewhere on the roster.

They are going to be forced to move one of the first overall picks to eventually solve this issue.

Waiting on Justin Schultz to morph from Jack Johnson into Drew Doughty is not a viable strategy since it has an excellent chance of failing.

I don't think the Oilers do it, but I definitely see the appeal. Hanging on to Hemsky for one more year and swapping out one of Eberle/Yakupov is a painful thought but might be in the team's best interest long-term.

The only trouble is who the target should be - there aren't a lot of guys likely to be traded who I'd be willing to give up Eberle or Yakupov for in MacTavish's shoes.

I think it might be more realistic to target a sub-number one guy (Kulikov in Florida is one I'd keep in mind) this summer with something built around one of Gagner, Paajarvi or the number seven - though then you're banking on being able to replace Gagner with a UFA (assuming he's the piece sent out).

Hypothetically, something roughly along the lines of Hemsky for Umberger, Gagner for Kulikov, signing a Zubrus-class winger and someone in the Ribeiro/Filpulla/Weiss family seems more doable to me than Eberle for a number one 'D'. Of course, I'm not convinced that's enough help on the blue-line either.

Adding a UFA like Ian White and bumping Potter into the AHL vet role might be another possibility to shore up the bottom end of the defence corps.

I don't think the Oilers do it, but I definitely see the appeal. Hanging on to Hemsky for one more year and swapping out one of Eberle/Yakupov is a painful thought but might be in the team's best interest long-term.

The only trouble is who the target should be - there aren't a lot of guys likely to be traded who I'd be willing to give up Eberle or Yakupov for in MacTavish's shoes.

I think it might be more realistic to target a sub-number one guy (Kulikov in Florida is one I'd keep in mind) this summer with something built around one of Gagner, Paajarvi or the number seven - though then you're banking on being able to replace Gagner with a UFA (assuming he's the piece sent out).

Hypothetically, something roughly along the lines of Hemsky for Umberger, Gagner for Kulikov, signing a Zubrus-class winger and someone in the Ribeiro/Filpulla/Weiss family seems more doable to me than Eberle for a number one 'D'. Of course, I'm not convinced that's enough help on the blue-line either.

Adding a UFA like Ian White and bumping Potter into the AHL vet role might be another possibility to shore up the bottom end of the defence corps.

Florida is not likely to trade a potential #1D for a flawed centre like Gagner.

Their centre depth is already very good and they have more on the way.

Stephen Weiss (UFA)

Jonathan Huberdeau

Peter Mueller (RFA)

Marcel Goc

Shawn Matthias (RFA)

Drew Shore

Nick Bjugstad

Quinton Howden

If they decide to take MacKinnon over Drouin, they would be set at centre for a decade.

I think it's more likely the Oilers would acquire a centre from Florida than ship Gagner there.

I do think that, concerning forwards, the Oilers have to make trades now of Hemsky, Gagner, and Horcoff....in addition to releasing Belanger, Eager, letting go of Petrell, Smithson, and Jones.

With adding either or both, draft round picks in 2014 and prospects such as Omark, Rajala into a trade deal package, the Oilers can find good depth there. Then, through all the buyouts, UFA's upcoming this will make it even more interesting.

There should be 3 - 4 excellent forward draft choices the Oilers must be very strongly looking at for #7...those being Barkov, Monahan, Lindholm, Nichuskin for 2nd line projections.

For 3rd or 4th line needs at centre the Oil can surely make offers to guys like Chipchura, Malholtra, Adam hall....etc.

There are good winger UFA's such as Stalberg, Gordon, Horton to go for...I think Bickell in staying with the Hawks.

I think the only way the Oilers get a top Dman is if they are willing to deal their 1st round pick or one of their young top 4 stars. Everybody is begging

Mark Streit sounds like he'll be expensive and for that kinda money, I'd rather chase after Tyler Bozak to line up in the #2 centre position and move Horc to the #3 hole. Now there's some decent centre depth with a righty and lefty that can win draws.

Nice joke, Jonathon! The Oilers GM Playbook clearly says that we have to bring almost all the same players back to the team year after year, otherwise bad things (like playoffs cutting into spring golf season) may happen -- at least that's what this copy that I found in the dumpster behind RX1 and signed "S. Tambellini" says...

Seriously, I think your analysis is pretty spot on and likely is the bare minimum that MacT has to do this offseason. In fact, if more than two to three spots go to first time NHL players (and Belov already has one of them), we are likely in trouble. What we need are senior RFA's with NHL experience and junior UFA's (ages 27 to 33) to fill out those positions.

Moves needed
1 heres the hated one Eberle to Carolina or Nashville for their #3or #4(Barkov)and a pick
2 Hemsky To Columbus (Nikitin)
3 Sign Streit for 5mat 2 years (give klefbom 2 years in the AHL to season
4 send Rajalla and 2014 2nd round pick to Columbus for Clutterbuck or give him an offer Sheet if Minny doesn't play ball.
5 Send Fedun to Pittsburg for the rights to speak with Morrow prior to July 1st
6 sign Malhotra, Emery and Torres to short term deals on the ufa market

Funny story about Maholtra.. He owns property here in Victoria, I work for a property management group.. Maholtra loves what Edmonton is putting together, I could certainly see Manny coming for at least a try out if it's offered. Even if he's 5th C in the pressbox most the time, he is a gem at winning faceoffs.. we need someone to teach our guys how to win those faceoffs.

Somehow parlaying Hemsky, and other parts to Boston for a signed Horton and Khoubodin(sp?) coming back our way

We need one more zone entry specialist for the 4th line.He can specialise any way he wants to,optimally he is a centerman so we can move him up as a zone entry specialist if we lose one to injury,they have the toughest jobs.

I would keep your original top 9 rock solid all year,only moving entire lines to handle different teams styles.

Jones is very important to us because he has proven he can score from all 4 lines already,we can count on him for that,but he has to be the weakest link in the toughness department,the other two need to be tough as hell.

Perfect fit is a center who can gain the o-zone consistantly no matter how he does it preferably with sheer speed or size,then we build off of that skillset,or a winger with the same ability and we build off of him.

Find a bigger centerman zone entry specialist ,put him with Jones and Brown and we are set.He must be a zone entry specialist though ,have one consistant NHL level move he can use for the entire game a proactive one hopefully so we can pressure,not counter punch.

Rajala-House-Pitlik make a nice backup line to throw out if we get the chance.

Fix this and the forwards are ready to go.

I have no clue what to do with the defense because i have no clue how we will initiate and engage it systemiclly.We are skill driven possesion team,sure but we still need to see how the defense will be managed to address that side of the coin.

We do need one more NHL level zone entry specialist even if we need to trade for him,position is irrellevant.All our zone entry speed is on the wings though and personally i would address this immediatly.

Do we have a centerman who is a consistant o-zone entry threat every game at a high level?Even if he is 5'8 and 165 lbs.Or 6'6 and 240lbs.Even if he can barely make the average grade everywhere else can the sucker gain the zone when he has the chance?That all we need.

I dont mind your idea of next yr's Oilers teambut there is no way, if Oilers GM, that I trade Eberle to get Barkov.

I would more so trade next yrs first rounder plus prospects (Rajala, Omark, Musil, Davidson, Gernat...etc) instead to get Barkov/Nichushkin rather than ever letting go of a top line type scoring threat of 75 to 90 pts plus season average (which I see coming soon from Ebs).

I still think Horcoff and Schultz Sr. for Yandle and something (e.g. the rights to Boyd Gordon (UFA))not much) has some merit. Phoenix is one team that would place some value on Horc's high cap hit and low salary. Yandle's cap hit is 5.25 (250 k less than Horc), but he actually gets paid more than that for the next 3 years.

Phoenix also has a ton of free agents, so Horc gives them a center that they probably need (with Gordon and others leaving). Schultz fills the hole on D, or rather, allows one of the PHX prospects (Rundblad, Gormley, Murphy, etc etc) to move into Yandle's spot and Schultz to fill a different hole. If they don't like/need him though then maybe you add Gagner into the mix in return for one of their D prospects. Just seems like there is a fit here somewhere, and then you're not paying Horc to leave.

The big problem I see with having so many great talents (who knew talent was a problem) is the salary cap. By moving Eberle now it spaces out things a little better for us and address the need at center. I just feel this will allow us to be better at other positions and be more competitive overall.

That's an overpay for sure for a guy everyone knows isn't long for the team (due to their depth, salary structure and financial constraints). I also suspect their off-season mantra may be different than their deadline mantra when, if memory serves, they still had a shot at the playoffs.

In any case, there are 2 obvious pieces in Horc and Yandle. Does Horc and Gags get it done? Some will debate (or have, at length, debated) whether they are "impact" but its not outlandish. Leaves us wafer-thin up the middle but takes about a net 5 million off the books, which we could probably use to sign both a 2C and a 3C, who keep the seat warm for Monahan (if there's a god) or whoever we draft.

Still leaves lots of holes to fill, but Khudobin would make a good 1B and we've talked about the depth available in free agency at LW. Are we at 8 bold moves yet?

Florida is not likely to trade for Gagner only because of his cost and the fact they don't seem super interested in competing. Gagner would likely become their 2nd highest paid player.

They do have some cap space but will be close to the floor.

Tallon has shown a propensity to sign free agent vets who he flips at the deadline once FLA is out of the playoffs. I could see him using his cap space to help out a team with cap problems and pick up some more prospects in the process. This would likely use up whatever room he might have had for Gagner.

He would likely trade the Oilers Brian Campbell because of his big salary, but he has a no trade clause.

And, suggesting you can draw any conclusions about players who played a handful of games at the end of a season when their team was devastated by injury at forward, defense and in goal is hardly convincing.

While it's likely Hopkins should be better than MacKinnon in year one, I certainly don't think that's guaranteed.

And I don't think it's likely that Tallon would give up a potential #1D to acquire a second line centre with warts considering he already has a plethora of other options.

McKinnon is going to be very good, but to say that he'll be close to as good or better then Nuge even in year one.. you're straight talking out your brown eye.. Have you not seen Hopkins play what so ever??? Hopkins gets completely overlooked for his defensive game, and superb back checking puck stealing skills.. why you ask.. because he's such a offensive wonder on the power play. So DSF for you to try and even remotely downgrade Nugent Hopkins in any sort of fashion, and suggest that McKinnon is going to walk in a be immediately more dominate then what Nuge has already banked.. you're talking out your brown eye.

34 yrs into this and our Oilers today look like they have a good start to an expansion franchise. Outside of half a dozen kids, we can't tell the difference if the rest of the lineup is AHL, or NHL. It's really unfortunate nothing can be done about this gong show management group that put us in this place.

Buy outs are limited - thus to maximize the benefit/opportunity you need to buy out your most expensive players that you'd consider moving in order to maxmize the return in real hockey flesh. You only get one chance to spend beyond the league norms - this is it.

So the three buyouts are (I think you are limited to three):

Gagner
Horcoff
Hemsky

With no salary commitments attached we move them for maximum value.

Even a queens correspondence MBA should be able to understand that. (Whether he could figure it out on his own is beyond the scope of the program)

I think the nation should give NAS a guest article blog spot for a coupledays to see what his writing potential is. Or maybe an interview on Nationradio to see if he actual talks like he writes. Its a morbid curiosity of mine.

In all honesty natioradio should do an interactive round table with some of big blogs on here. Get er done Lowetide.

Then take NAS to the hockey draft with credentials to conduct interviews with players. Could you imagine?

Really? How is that Mueller took 104 faceoffs this season, than? That's half the number of Ryan Smyth, who spent less than half of the season as a fourth-line centre. Did Kevin Dineen only use the line on shifts that didn't include faceoffs?

The depth chart at centre for much of this year was Goc, Shore, Matthias, Smithson (with Weiss out). Bjugstad got 11 games in the role, and Mueller (judging by faceoffs) probably played 5-6 games up the middle.

Now, let's talk prospects:

Jonathan Huberdeau is a sophomore NHL'er who has never played centre at the NHL level. Nick Bjugstad had one point and went minus-8 over 11 games (along with a 40% win rate in the circle); the Panthers were out-shot by an average of 32-22 with him on the ice over an average hour of 5v5 play. I like Shore and Howden both, but it's probably also worth noting that Howden was pointless and went minus-11 in 18 games in Florida. It's also worth noting Howden's a winger.

So, yeah. They're in a terrible short-term position at centre. If they re-sign Weiss and draft MacKinnon, they can run Weiss/MacKinnon/Shore, and that still won't be as good next year as RNH/Gagner/Horcoff (though long-term MacKinnon is going to be brilliant).

Man, Horcoff's their fifth-line centre! See how great a team can look when we just pretend everyone's a centre!

This poses an interesting question though...

What does the depth chart look like and how does it change things if the Oil consider moving Taylor Hall to centre?

Hopkins
Hall
Horcoff
???

You could move Gagner to wing or trade him for a top 4 d-man. Or, keep him at centre on your 3rd line and have Horcs as your 4th. Perhaps too much depth there (you probably can't have too much depth) and a way overpaid middle, but food for thought?

RW - Eberle, Hemsky, Hartikainen ??
LW - Yakupov, Paajarvi, Smyth, ??

Need a 2nd line LW which may be much easier to come by. Much cheaper to fill these spots I would guess and you wouldn't have to over pay for a Top 4 blue-liner.

Buy outs are limited - thus to maximize the benefit/opportunity you need to buy out your most expensive players that you'd consider moving in order to maxmize the return in real hockey flesh. You only get one chance to spend beyond the league norms - this is it.

So the three buyouts are (I think you are limited to three):

Gagner
Horcoff
Hemsky

With no salary commitments attached we move them for maximum value.

Even a queens correspondence MBA should be able to understand that. (Whether he could figure it out on his own is beyond the scope of the program)

Gagner's a restricted free agent not under contract past this summer. The Oilers can't buy him out.

I actually quite like Hemsky; it's just a matter of addressing other areas of concern. I think the Oilers have a better shot of pulling off something like a Hemsky-for-Umberger trade and signing Dainus Zubrus than they do of signing Nathan Horton and hanging on to Hemsky. It's also cheaper.

Any upcoming articles on possible RFA offer sheets? Would you consider doing one that focuses on Artem Anisimov and his comparables for a possible addition at 2C or 3C? I'm not sure Columbus would match a 4 year $16M offer -- they might take the 1st and 3rd.

Seems like Hemsky for a defenseman makes sense. But who? Maybe Streit? I know he is pending UFA, but maybe 5th pick to talk to Streit and if the Oilers sign him it turns into Hemsky and Oil gets 3 rd pick from NYI.

Phoenix is apparently asking for the sun, moon and stars in a trade for Yandle. At the deadline, Elliotte Friedman reported they wanted "Two impact forwards, including someone who can be No.1 centre."

Frankly, that's an overpay and I wouldn't make that deal. But Horcoff and Schultz Sr. isn't even in the ball-park.

So if they're asking for two impact forwards, is Hemsky and Gagner really out of the question assuming that we take a portion of Hemmer's salary? Maybe throw in Anaheim's second rounder to spice things up?

I think our view of tradable players will be drastically altered for the better once the cap officially gets brought down. Lecavalier, Edler, Lucic, and a couple others maybe might become available. I'm actually excited for the offseason for once!

Any upcoming articles on possible RFA offer sheets? Would you consider doing one that focuses on Artem Anisimov and his comparables for a possible addition at 2C or 3C? I'm not sure Columbus would match a 4 year $16M offer -- they might take the 1st and 3rd.

So, you're suggesting giving up a 1st and a 3rd for a player who was picked 54th overall 7 years ago?

Compensation for Gags will be at least a 1st and a 3rd. Nobody will offer sheet his qualifying offer considering his asking price will be anywhere from 4-5 million.. As for Paajarvi, it's unlikely that anybody will offer sheet him; only the very best get offer sheeted.

Hemsky alone won't get you a roster player, or anything that resembles a difference maker. He may fetch another Ryan Jones/Petrell type, if we need even more support players. Every attempt should be made to use him as a throw in and maybe help Edmonton improve on that 37th, or perhaps even that 56th selection.

Ales has gone from the best player here 5 yrs ago, to just another soft euro, often injured/uninspired use to be. His best days are behind him. Get rid of him now before he turns into another Omark type asset. Hemsky and the 56th, for a late first/early second rounder. After all, HGH is still a banned substance (Hemsky,Gagner,Horcoff). Oilers could sure use 3 of the first 37 selections. Might even net the Oilers Lazar with that late first rounder.