Coronavirus: The four factors that will decide when the UK's lockdown can end

Coronavirus: The four factors that will decide when the UK's lockdown can end

Coronavirus: The four factors that will decide when the UK's lockdown can end

A slowing admissions rate suggests the rules are helping, but death rates from some regions are rising.

Most testing has been confined to hospitals and as the government expands the number of tests it carries out each day, we can expect confirmed cases to rise.Professor Sheila Bird from Cambridge University says this is one reason why the government should be clear about the day samples were taken and how many positive results are recorded for patients versus NHS workers, for example.

Over the last two weeks, the percentage of positive tests has also increased, from 17% when lockdown began to 48% on Sunday.This doesn't necessarily mean the infection rate is rising. Medical staff might now have a better idea about who needs a test.

Image:Police speak to a couple on the embankment in central London during the lockdownInfection rateIndeed, there is some evidence social distancing is having the desired effect and slowing the infection rate.Scientists at the London School for Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at the average number of contacts each person had before and after lockdown and concluded that, for every four people we met before 23 March, we are now meeting just one.

Their modelling, quoted in the government's daily news conferences, suggests this could reduce the infection rate by 75%.'Nobody likes a lockdown'Hospital admissionsWhile these findings are positive, they are also based on predictions about the impact of people's behaviour and not the available reported data.

There are signs of hope, though, in the number of people admitted to hospital with a COVID-19 diagnosis.The rate of admissions in England has been slowing for several days and provides the most consistent trend in the four measures considered here.However, these rates of admission also reveal how the outbreak is at different stages in different parts of the country.

London, which has been ahead of other regions in terms of deaths and cases for some weeks, is now seeing fewer hospital admissions. People in the capital will hope this recent trend is a sign of progress.In recent days, admissions in the Midlands have been up by 47%, in the North East and Yorkshire by 35% and in the North West by 25%.

The death figures in these regions also suggest a worsening situation, with University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Trust now recording more deaths than any of other in England, including London.Race for the Vaccine: The drug that could save millionsSo, when will we know if the lockdown is working?

As ministers are fond of saying, patience is required but the best measure to monitor is probably hospital admissions.Like the UK, it was admissions that fell first in Italy, which locked down on 8 March - two weeks before the UK.Subsequently, this past weekend, Italy recorded its lowest daily increase in deaths for a fortnight.

When x factor is back on our screens!! When twats stay indoors when they're supposed to be Sky. ;) When people stop dropping like flies would be a clue Stop spreading shit we are miles away When the season has been deemed null and void. Would be a good start. 1) When people stop fucking dying 2) see number 1 3) stay at home 4) all of the above

UK plots end of coronavirus lockdown amid fears firms won't survive after JuneMinisters have appointed a team to come up with options where the UK's coronavirus lockdown restrictions would be lifted only when new Covid-19 hospital admissions begin to drop

Morgue staff in New York forced to FaceTime bereaved to show dead bodiesThe city is currently in lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. Grim Covid19 has infected more than 1.2 million people & killed more than 68,000 worldwide. US alone has more than 331,000 recorded cases & more than 9,400 deaths, with 1,344 of those reported on Saturday — the nation's largest single-day death toll.

A visual guide to the world in lockdownGlobal air travel has declined as coronavirus lockdown measures have come into force around the world London's Heathrow Airport - one of the busiest in the world - has seen a sharp decline in flights Coming up next on Obvious News... I hope everyone returning from global pandemic hot spots has a safe journey home. BBCWorld If they do this one more time every single druggy will just ignore the lockdown, simple as, they are liars, it's a lockdown only for us, tell me how ANY of that is SOCIAL DISTANCING, raiding teenagers for a few plants, they can get gone, lying to everyone all of them

Ministers plan end to coronavirus lockdown in June - with workers, areas or 'immune' released at different timesMINISTERS are planning to end the coronavirus lockdown by June- with workers, areas or the “immune” released at different times. A team is said to be drawing up a list of options to remove the rest… Please don’t What's with all the bs news?

Coronavirus lockdown to be ended in stages as Treasury fear businesses won't survive past JuneTHE CORONAVIRUS lockdown is to be ended in stages amid Treasury fears that businesses won’t survive past June. A list of options is being drawn up to remove the restrictions once the number o… how the hell are they going to do that with no testing the idiots The govt clearly only cares about rich businesses than people lives - eugenics Too late by then 6 million unemployed by May - we are in a slump now not in June u fools.

Mass testing and contact tracing only way to end coronavirus lockdown, expert saysMASS testing and contact tracing is the only way to end the coronavirus lockdown, one of the country’s leading experts has revealed. Professor Neil Ferguson, whose team at Imperial College Lo… Do the Tests Still Have an 80% False Positive Rate..