Game Reveals:Player jrsthethird (human) has been ejected; the Countess role card has been discarded.Player stdio -- The Prince -- has returned to normal play.Player blindsniper -- The Guard -- has been detained.Player admetus (human) has been shredded.

All players other than blindsniper are required to vote today.

The GM says this:

Note: Blind may publicly select one unrevealed player and guess their role (use the vote tag, please); either myself or the player, whoever sees it first, can quote the guess and reply with a simple and honest YES or NO, and if Blind guesses correctly, the selected player will be ejected at the end of the day instead. Blind may not select the role Guard as his guess.

Welcome back, Prince stdio, please spare us the sweatier details. Things are disturbing enough with all these royals being ripped to shreds!

The GM says this:

Please see poll at the top!If even just one person selects the 48 hour option, that is what we will go with; 24 hour option would have to be unanimous.

The GM says this:

UPDATE: There's been one vote for a 48 hour day, so the poll has been deleted and this'll be a standard extended weekend and the day will end Sunday at 8:00pm Pacific.

That would be me, trying to wrap my head around things. Sorry in advance, but hoping it's time well spent.

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

Holy balls. I started writing this post on my phone about 12 hours ago...and lost my phone. Ryvvn and I stayed up late, frantically searching the house. We checked all the normal places I frequently leave it- in the medicine cabinet in the bathroom, on the coffee table, in my purse. We checked the not-so-normal places. I looked inside the refrigerator, he dug through the garbage. Nope. Finally this morning we used Find my iPhone. Guess where it was?UNDER my fucking purse.

I'm trying to think of possible wolf pairings...I think whoever the first wolf was, that they and the person chose to be their partner voted for different people on Day 1. No strong reasons for thinking this, it's just what I would expect most of us to do.

If I use that as a starting point, I'm left to choose one from 2 of the following groups:

If Blindsniper is a wolf, Blindsniper/stdio and Blindsniper/ChrisWulf make the most sense. (Blind and Zark voted together twice, and I don't think a 2-wolf team would do that. And Hellheart put the third vote on Blind).

If stdio is a wolf, I can't find a reason to rule out any of the possible combinations (stdio/Zark, stdio/Hellheart, stdio/ChrisWulf, and stdio/Blind again). However, stdio/Blind and stdio/Hellheart are my favorites there.

As someone's already pointed out, with stdio being the Prince, if he is a wolf, detaining him is dangerous because he could target rekard and make us lose our Alpha.

That leaves me to

#Vote for: Blindsniper83

Duh, he's in detention, FCM. Read better. I blame the stress of digging through the trash so many times.

Damn. I really don't like this situation- of the pair I'm looking at most, one is not eligible for voting, and one could be potentially dangerous.

(( Admetus maul means Blindsniper is overwhelmingly likely to be a wolf here, I imagine. FCM's vote was a solid strategic choice when it was made to protect herself, but it did hop off of Blindsniper onto Admetus regardless. To me it really looks like it's her or stdio if Blindsniper flips Wolf.

I struggle to see Zark as the last wolf here. His argument protected Blindsniper but he would've had to start as the initial wolf, and he would've had to make a super-odd leveling call to let Gungnir get mauled on Day 3. Would Zark do something that devious? ))

Oh I can be devious... it just means more time to invest and I usually can't sustain it long enough (witness last game).

Blindsniper's reveal will be interesting as hellheart says... I don't buy him as Alpha (what I've been chasing) as his day one vote was late in game and a singleton after two bandwagons established. It's not a tactic I've seen from most wolves on day one & I still believe he's not likely to be Alpha. He could be a convert, but I have my doubts there.

My guess is the alpha was on Rekard or myself, and the convert was on the other bandwagon.

I'm catching up and will upload my notes after I get the kids to bed, but I'm really wondering about our lovely and talented GM's meta-dismiss post, but going there is meta on its own. I want to give it more thought.

In the meantime, placeholder on

#Vote for: chriswulf

. Curious about a few details there.

More in a bit,

7z7

((Stealth Edit for kerning. I really dislike the way the new vote tag disrupts the visual flow of text it it's not on the first line of a new paragraph. It kicks with both my RP and my OCD, not to mention my PTSDOMGWTFBBQ))

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

Ryvvn, will you advise if a revealed wolf is the alpha or the convert? (not a vote)

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

Hellheart wrote:(( Admetus maul means Blindsniper is overwhelmingly likely to be a wolf here, I imagine. FCM's vote was a solid strategic choice when it was made to protect herself, but it did hop off of Blindsniper onto Admetus regardless. To me it really looks like it's her or stdio if Blindsniper flips Wolf.

I struggle to see Zark as the last wolf here. His argument protected Blindsniper but he would've had to start as the initial wolf, and he would've had to make a super-odd leveling call to let Gungnir get mauled on Day 3. Would Zark do something that devious? ))

Hellheart, what are your thoughts re BS alpha vs convert? I may be focusing too much on day one for him, but I only see him as converted. Also, if he doesn't roll wolf? I don't like Chris as an unknown, but...

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

(( So if Blindsniper doesn't flip wolf, the immediate question is: why was Admetus mauled? The wolves just saved us a mislynch that probably wins them the game if it happens. There's being devious, and there's sabotaging your own victory for the lulz ("Going full Ravebomb").

I mean, this does focus our attention on the players that voted for Admetus, but mauling Admetus just for that means that Chris and I are the remaining wolves. And I'm not going to pass up the easy win for some ridiculously tricky move with a high backfire chance.

----

Zark, you're right that Blindsniper is probably not the convert. If Chriswulf is our starting wolf, Blindsniper could've easily been the convert since we have no idea how much thought Chris would have put into it.

Blindsniper was phone-posting on Day 1. Do you know whether he actually looks at the impact of his Day 1 votes at all? I'm pretty sure he doesn't do much reading if he's doing a no-text vote using his phone.

His vote makes a twisted sort of sense if he converted his Day 1 vote target. Just a thought. ))

Today is supposed to be a family day. Instead, I'm watching the kids from a distance and my exasperated wife while I stand off to the side with cell phone on one ear and finger crammed in the other like I'm Mork calling frigging Orson.

Rant posted in the village pub rated at .1 milizeus... posting here to say I'm catching up in thread.

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

The GM says this:

Hellheart will be ejected and Blindsniper will be returned to normal play at the end of the day today. Hellheart may still log a vote for today if he wishes to do so; Blindsniper is still barred from voting today.

BS is a wolf. Second wolf is FCM, Chriswulf, or stdio. I'll think a bit and come up with what's more likely than the others.

90% sure Zark is human. 100% sure rekard is human.

It's possible Admetus was part of Aldax's reveal, which is why he got mauled. But if we still have human-human reveal targets that could easily seal this game.

---

We may outright lose due to the remaining abilities. There's not that many roles left to guess and Blindsniper could do it again, but if we don't have another Baron it becomes very difficult to actually outright eject Blindsniper.

I'm not even sure how we get out of this, besides Handmaid Roulette. If Zark is a Baron we have a chance to win. If stdio is the other wolf and his target doesn't random Prince, we have a chance to win. I'm not sure if there's any other realistic outs.

Yuck.

E: If we detain Blindsniper again and he misses his guess, we may be okay? It depends on who we detain and what they do.

Last edited by Hellheart on 09 Apr 2017, 18:14:33, edited 1 time in total.

Blind is my number one pick. If blindsniper is a wolf, he does have more information then the rest of us on what roles are accounted for, because the wolves would probably have shared their role information with each other. It sucks that he won't be ejected now, but I think we should still plan to Lynch him again tomorrow and hope he doesn't get as lucky with his next guess.

Ryvvn, there are no limits on the number of times a players role is activated, correct?

It's worse than that. Presumably 5 humans and 1 wolf out of detention, wolf-Blindsniper in detention.

I'm ejected and somebody is mauled. 3 humans left, 2 wolves, lynch-or-lose. If today we lynch a human Priest or a human Prince or Guard that misses their chance at life, we lose. If we lynch a wolf King, or Prince/Guard/Baron that makes their chance at life, we lose. If we lynch a wolf Priest and the Guards can guess a privately revealed role, we lose.

A second baron lets us safely eject a wolf. That helps a lot. I can't be a King target since I'm being ejected, IIRC, so King-Zark isn't a huge help unless I'm missing something?

as the last wolf. I'm assuming Blindsniper was the first wolf, and I don't think he picks stdio, so it's a tossup between Chriswulf and FCM. FCM is the safer choice, especially if Blindsniper knew he wouldn't have much time to play.

Sorry, FCM. As consolation, stdio's role is shit for keeping us from losing, so if you are human you may be our best chance at actually pulling this one out.

If Zark claims Baron, turbo-lynch Zark. I don't think any other role is worth the lynch. Don't claim any other roles, since "revealed" is probably "revealed by GM" so you're just giving Blindsniper a free win.

rekard wrote:Why is Zark that much human?

1) If Zark starts as a wolf, he doesn't pick Blindsniper. Therefore, if Zark is a wolf, he must have been the convert.2) Blindsniper doesn't convert Zark on Day 1 unless he didn't look at the votes at all. When he voted, you were only leading by one vote.3) Even if he somehow did convert Zark, Zark doesn't maul Gungnir because he was there at EOD. He only mauls Admetus if Aldax peeked him and Admetus, and I think Admetus reveals a human-wolf peek yesterday.

Of course, Zark could have started as a wolf and he could have picked Blindsniper. That's not out of the realm of possibility.

But FCM is quite frankly too unconcerned for my taste, thus the soul-read. If Zark's giving you serious wolf vibes and you want to take a stand on that, I'd honestly probably roll with what you decide there. I can't read Zark, so I don't try.

I would not have picked hellheart as Baron. I won't say what I thought you were as that puts unnecessary information out there, but rather cements Blindsniper as a wolf-convert in my eyes.

Meta, but I really can't get past day 1 vote of BS as eliminating him as alpha. Not when there were two viable bandwagon candidates to hop on.

My fear is Stdio and Blindsniper.

Ryvvn, were all roles randomly assigned? Or were there any roles which were wolf or human "only". (not a vote). With 1 convert, this is a muddled line, but perhaps worth exploring.

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

To Rekard: I'm not sure either. I mean, you know I love you, but anyone picking you or I as convert would have an uphill battle if the lynch went the wrong way, & potentially a challenge the next day if the aura of no immediate resolution of role led to "hey we found the other guy suspect enough, let's try that again."

Either of us only work as alpha

Not the strongest analysis, but I suspect strongly that alpha was on one of us, beta on the other. Blindsniper as either mucks with that, but.

Still digging. I was looking forward to the Blindsniper reveal tonight & feel we are in a bad place without it.

More in a bit,

7z7

Stealth edit, clarified I was answering Rekard after the two gm posts

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

Are the Aldax targets still alive? It may be time. Role reveal is a bad idea, but "yeah these two guys are human" would really be good right now.

More in a bit,

7z7

"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

I think if Zark was playing his best game, starting-wolf-Zark converts rekard 100% of the time. Whoever survives that lynch almost certainly survives the whole game if their counterpart flips wolf. So if Blindsniper's a wolf, Zark can't be.

I'll stay on Zark. Let's see what happens. Things are still a bit confusing.I think Blindsniper could be the wolf convert as he tends to tend less often so someone could say that he could last till almost the end.