Preventive Security in the 21st Century: The Threats of the Threats

The largest initiative in place today aimed at addressing current global humanitarian concerns (the threats of the threats), are the Millennium Development Goals’ and their deadline (2015) is fast approaching; we are more than halfway through the project, and the results do not seem promising at all. To name a few of the challenges facing the MDGs we could stop at issues such as: First, incompatible IMF policies – for example - Countries cannot meet the MDGs without exceeding spending limits imposed by the IMF, thus making it effectively impossible for them to meet their MDG commitments and the demands of their electorates (Lobe,2005). Second, lack of financial commitment (Developed Countries are not meeting the minimum GDP percentage aimed at foreign aid (0.7%); a basic requirement of the MDGs. As of 2006, only Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden do so (Novonty, 2006). Third, the unexpected global economic crisis; According to estimates of the World Bank and others, attaining the MDGs will require at least $ 50 billion per year in additional aid (or a doubling of current aid levels) (Hermle,2003). That amount has not been satisfied in any year since 2000. It is hard to imagine how this amount can be guaranteed following the current global economic crisis. Lastly of course are the questionable measuring criteria guiding the MDGs; The goals were established as global targets. But they are delivered, and measured (not always reliably), within individual countries. Some observers question whether the goals are distorting aid allocations (Perkins, 2008).

Coupled with depleting global resources, poverty and hunger, this constant ability to yield failures will in turn yield unimaginable consequences that will raise the stakes of global insecurity in this century. Hence the question: Are we prepared for the challenges of the 21st century? The answer is simple, no. We haven’t even resolved the outstanding issues of the previous century yet. The earlier part of this century will be spent attempting to rectify the mistakes of the previous one, all the meanwhile the new threats will be looming. Unless the issues are addressed prior to evolving (Prevention) the international community’s preparedness or more accurately, its ability to eliminate the threats, will always operate in retrograde; hardly ever bringing about positive change let alone guaranteeing global security. This is a risk that our increasingly globalized world can no longer afford in the 21st Century.

Concluding Thoughts

The end of the 20th century has served as an example of how the “realist – bandwagoning” theory was put into practice even in the absence of international consent; Operation Iraqi Freedom. The coalition moved on to address what was considered a mutual threat and neutralize it. Now given that in “bandwagoning”, smaller states align with the source of danger by cutting a deal with a more powerful state to ensure survival or even to share the gains of conquest (Kay,2006), then one could argue that given that 35 states in Africa (out of 54) are facing significant food security threats (Kay,2006), endeavors to secure this vital resource are conceivable, the question is when?

It becomes apparent then that serious reform is vital; the instruments currently in place appear to be ineffective and the international community lacks a serious preventative measure. International partnership on the matter is essential, now more than ever, as our world becomes more and more interconnected, our security grows to become a collective-common. Despite championing the concept of human security we have only taken small steps in realizing its promise; a journey that will take decades to resolve, if not longer.

Hence the question: Do governments worldwide realize the range of security threats posed by current humanitarian concerns? Is the international community preparing to meet these threats? Or is there an event of greater proportions awaiting us in the 21st century? The answer unfortunately remains formless, and only time can tell.

The small chunk of territory that separates Bolivia from the Pacific Ocean.

One word: water. An arrangement between the two countries allows landlocked Bolivia to ship its goods to the ocean tariff-free through northern Chilean ports. But that’s not enough to satisfy Bolivia, which lost 250 miles of the disputed coastline in a 19th century war.

In early July, the two countries set up a joint committee to improve bilateral ties, suggesting that full diplomatic relations—which were broken over the sea-access issue 30 years ago—could be restored. Chilean President Michelle Bachelet is open to that idea, especially since Bolivia’s immense reserves of natural gas could help fuel the energy-hungry Chilean economy. But she has emphatically dismissed the possibility of ceding any territory.

The Spratly Islands, a cluster of more than 100 tiny reefs, islets, and atolls in the South China Sea, with a land Area of less than 5 square miles.

Food, traffic, and oil. The Spratly Islands are one of the most heavily fished areas in the world. They’re also Located in the center of the principle shipping route between Europe and Asia. And most lucrative of all are the untapped energy sources from the seabed below. China estimates that there are 17.7 billion tons of oil in the area, which would make it the fourth-largest oil reserve in the world.

The reasons for sovereignty claims are myriad: Some nations insist that they have historical ownership, While others say that geographical logic should prevail. All parties laying claim to the territory with the exception of Brunei maintain a military presence on the islands, despite a 2002 commitment (signed by all but Taiwan) to resolve differences by peaceful means. Although military confrontations have calmed down in recent years, the islands remain a hot-button issue in the region

Critical international (NATO) objectives are threatened by the prospect of increased possibility of internal disputes among different ethnic groups.

FAO (UN) established a Food, Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Information Management and Policy unit - FAAHM (which derives from the Dari word for “knowledge”) – within the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (MAAH) in July 2003, with funding from USA and Germany. FAAHM supports MAAH in the collection, analysis and dissemination of information related to agriculture and food security, and provides advice to Government officials on agricultural policy and legislation. Results are yet to be determined.

Sources: Foriegnpolicy.com1, Resource Wars (Klare, 2002)2, FAO3

Fig. D: Previous cases of acute water-related disputes

Partition between the two leaves the Indus Basin divided in a particularly convoluted fashion. Disputes over irrigation water exacerbate tensions in the still-sensitive Kashmir region, bringing the two riparians “to the brink of war.”

Twelve years of World Bank-led negotiations lead to the 1960 Indus Waters Agreement. Today the topic remains of sensitive nature.

February 1951–September 1953

Israel and Syria

Exchange sporadic fire over Israeli water development works in the Huleh Basin, which lies in the demilitarized zone between the two countries

Israel moves its water intake to the Sea of Galilee.

January–April 1958

Egypt & Sudan

Amid pending negotiations over the Nile waters, Sudanese general elections, and an Egyptian vote on Sudan–Egypt unification, Egypt sends an unsuccessful military expedition into territory in dispute between the two countries.

Tensions were eased (and a Nile Waters Treaty signed) when a pro-Egyptian government was elected in Sudan.

June 1963–March 1964

Somalia & Ethiopia

The 1948 boundaries left Somali nomads under Ethiopian rule. Border skirmishes between Somalia and Ethiopia took place over disputed territory in Ogaden desert, which includes some critical water resources (both sides were also aware of oil resources in the region)

Several hundred were killed before cease-fire was negotiated.

March 1965–July 1966

Israel and Syria

The two exchanged fire over “all-Arab” plan to divert the Jordan River headwaters, presumably to preempt the Israeli National Water Carrier, an out-of-basin diversion plan from the Sea of Galilee

Construction of the Syrian diversion was halted in July 1966.

April–August 1975

Iraq and Syria

In a particularly low-flow year along the Euphrates (owing to filling of upstream dams), Iraq claimed that the flow reaching its territory was “intolerable” and asked that the Arab League intervene in its dispute over this with Syria. The Syrians claimed that less than half the river’s normal flow was reaching its borders that year, and after a barrage of mutually hostile statements, an Arab League technical committee that had been formed to mediate the conflict pulled out. In May 1975, Syria closed its airspace to Iraqi flights, and both Syria and Iraq reportedly transferred troops to their mutual border.

Mediation on the part of Saudi Arabia broke the increasing tension.

April 1989–July 1991

Mauritania & Senegal

Two Senegalese peasants were killed over grazing rights along the Senegal River, which forms the boundary between Mauritania and Senegal. This sparked smoldering ethnic and land-reform tensions in the region. Several hundred people were killed as civilians from border towns on either side of the river attacked each other,

Each country used its army to restore order. Violence broke out sporadically until diplomatic relations were restored later in 1991.

Insecurity continues to be a problem in Burundi and has intensified with the violation of the ceasefire accord that was signed in 2006 after years of civil war.

Sporadic fighting in late 2007 and early 2008 between Government forces and the Palipehutu-FNL rebel group (Forces Nationales de Libération) has increased during April in and around the capital of Bujumbura displacing thousands throughout the country.

Food security remains a problem with 600,000 people needing food aid according to a recent UN report.6

Congo

1999

UN; MONUC

Widespread abuses carried out by United Nations personnel against refugees in the Democratic Republic of Congo; Personnel from the U.N. Mission in the Democrat­ic Republic of the Congo stand accused of at least 150 major human rights violations.

The crimes involve rape and forced prostitution of women and young girls across the country, including inside a refugee camp in the town of Bunia in north­eastern Congo.7

200,000; 2.5 million people displaced…Darfur today is still characterized by insecurity, lawlessness and impunity15

Inability to provide promising results.

Note:Not only do peacekeeping operations come at a high material cost, but they too come at a high humanitarian cost. The examples above demonstrate how even when deployed under an international set of standards, unprofessional soldiers, usually from developing countries, engage in inhumane behavior, which in turn lays the grounds for further instability. On a further note, even collaboration between numerous organization is a difficult issue (such as the case of former Yugoslavia) - NATO, the EU and the UN carried out operations without a clear system of the chain of command or structural order.

Fig. F: Millennium Development Goals at a stand-still in disadvantaged countries

Incompatible IMF Policies

Indirect control exercised by the IMF over recipient governments' macroeconomic policies is straitjacketing their ability to deal with urgent social, health, and economic issues, such as the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and likewise the ability of their electorates to influence those policies.

[Countries] cannot [meet the MDGs] without exceeding spending limits imposed by the IMF, thus making it effectively impossible for them to meet their MDG commitments and the demands of their electorates.

Absence of universal commitment

Developed Countries are not meeting the minimum GDP percentage aimed at foreign aid (0.7%); a basic requirement of the MDGs. Currently, only Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden do so.

Unexpected Economic Crisis

According to estimates of the World Bank and others, attaining the MDGs will require at least $ 50 billion per year in additional aid (or a doubling of current aid levels).16 That amount has not been satisfied in any year since 2000. It is hard to imagine how this amount can be guaranteed following the current global economic crisis.

It is unclear what affects this crisis produced worldwide in sectors critical to the MDGs (unemployment rates, financial redistribution by governments, different funds allocated for different projects; the priorities have changed)

Questionable measuring criteria

The goals were established as global targets. But they are delivered, and measured (not always reliably), within individual countries. Some observers question whether the goals are distorting aid allocation.[17]

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