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I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but I doubt he'll make my ballot when he becomes eligible).

2) Mickey Cochrane-C (n/e): Immense peak and prime makes up for a relatively short career. Get this man into the HOM this "year!" Best major league catcher for 1927, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933 and close in 1934. Best AL catcher for 1928, 1934 and 1935.

3) John Beckwith-3B/SS/C (1): Marvelous infielder from the twenties. Appears to have been more "hot corner" guy than shortstop, but that doesn't really hurt him since third base was still mighty tough as a position. Whatever his defense lacked was surely made up (and then some) by a powerful bat. Better than any of the other eligible third basemen, IMO. I have him pegged at his position(s) multiple times as the best for many seasons among white and black players.

4) Frankie Frisch-2B/3B (n/e): Not close to being the best second baseman of his era, but we can cut him a little slack in that department. :-) Best major league third baseman for 1921. Best major league second baseman for 1923. Best NL second baseman for 1930 and 1934.

5) Cupid Childs-2B (2): Best second baseman of the '90s. Too short of a career to knock out McPhee for tops for the 19th century, but not that far behind. Considering the average second basemen of his era, he was fairly durable. Best major league second baseman for 1890, (almost in 1891), 1892, 1893, 1894, 1895, 1896 and 1897.

Childs was the best major league second baseman more times in a season than Doyle was the best NL second baseman. IMO, there's no way that the Laughing One goes above the Little Fat Man.

6) Charley Jones-LF/CF (3): Like York below, he was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

7) Vic Willis-P (4): Why does this man receive such little respect? Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

8) Tom York-LF (5): I know some here looking at his OPS+ must be saying to themselves "Murph has him over guys like Carey or Roush?!?" Fair question, but, IMO, York was a more dominating player at his position than those two during their time. Long enough career and many times as the best at his position (when left field was more like centerfield today) deserves a ballot spot.Best leftfielder of the 1870's. Best major league leftfielder for 1873, 1875, 1877 and 1878 (extremely close in 1872 and 1881).

9) Burleigh Grimes (6): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Better peak, IMO, than Rixey or Welch places him slightly above those career guys. Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

10) Pie Traynor-3B (7): Best white third baseman of his time, but Beckwith was better. Best major league third baseman for 1923 (Beckwith was better), 1925, 1927, 1929 (Beckwith was better) and 1932.

11) Jake Beckley-1B (8): Not much peak, but plenty of career. Better than his numbers suggest since first base was tougher during his time than during the ABC boys' era. Best major league first baseman for 1900.

12) Mickey Welch-P (9): I have to admit that the 1880's had some fine pitchers. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

13) Rube Waddell-P (10): If he had been a little more serious and quit the horse playing... Tied for best major league pitcher for 1902. Best AL pitcher for 1905.

14) Eppa Rixey-P (11): Before Spahn, he was the winningest lefty in the NL. Comparable to Faber, except Red had a better peak..

15) Ed Konetchy-1B (12): Best first baseman of the Deadball Era, IMO. The uber-stat systems don't measure first base well, so Konetchy is hurt by that. Best major league first baseman for 1910, 1911 and 1916 (very close in 1909 and 1912). Best NL first baseman for 1909, 1912 and 1919.

Van Haltren got knocked off because of the newbies.

Sewell, Jennings, Griffith and Leach are admirable players who just miss in my system.

Bill Foster is extremely close; need to do some more work with him. Lundy is not that far behind. Johnson is no where near my ballot.

Voting a bit early this week. A bit of a break from the backlog elections as the top three are shoo-ins and two others make the ballot despite conservative placement.

Well, this war is really getting messy. Things were looking quite scary last summer, but after a fine showing at Midway & by the Russians at Stalingrad, it looks like the allies can win, but its not going to be easy. Due to this, many baseball players will not be playing next season. I've heard many of them will be spending their military service playing ball... which is a bit unfortunate as if they are going to be playing ball anyways, why not MLB?

1943 Ballot

1. Oscar Charleston (ne) -- Top negro league outfielder of all time.2. Mickey Cochrane (ne) -- OBP machine for the A's and Tigers. Catchers becoming more durable in his era so a "relatively short" career means catching 1451 games (9th all time in 1942). Career highlighted by a monster 9 year prime (1927-35). So good that a miner in Commerce, Oklahoma named his kid after him.3. Frankie Frisch (ne) -- A very nice peak (though below near-contemporaries Collins/Hornsby/Gehringer). A+ fielder. Long career. It'll be another 25 years before he irritates us with his Vets Committee antics.4. Larry Doyle (nr-14-11-9-8-6-7-10-8-8-6-4-2-3-3-1) -- I think the electorate is underrating him. Fine second baseman for great Giants teams. Solid peak, in fairly short career. Fielding was mediocre, but not as horrific as WARP suggests.5. Hughie Jennings (14-12-14-14-13-11-9-7-6-7-8-13-11-11-9-6-4-4-4-2) -- I like peak and boy does Hughie have peak. Short career, though. Unlike McGraw, poor seasons outside his peak slip his career rate stats a bit. Also unlike McGraw, he was quite durable inside his peak. 6. Cupid Childs (nr-15-12-10-9-8-9-14-12-12-10-8-6-6-5-3) -- Very comparable to Doyle. OPS+ is OBP heavy. Fielding was good, but not A-level.7. Clark Griffith (nr-15-12-10-8-7-9-10-14-nr-14-14-13-8-4) -- The plethora of borderline 20's candidates is making me think we may have forgotten about Clark. Solid numbers in an underrepresented era.8. John Beckwith (nr-12) Convinced he's ballot-worthy by recent analysis and re-analysis. He was certainly a good hitter. Career length and true defensive position are my main concerns with him.9. Charley Jones (nr-nr-13-12-11-9-7-6-5-5-6-11-9-9-7-5-3-7-6-5) -- Unfairly blacklisted. Appears to be a hybrid or Pike/Stovey/Thompson, guys I've ranked fairly highly.10. John McGraw (10-10-11-10-9-8-6-5-4-4-5-12-10-10-8-7-5-5-7-6) -- 135 OPS+ is aided by the fact that its OBP heavy. In fact, his OBP is 3rd all time. Playing time issues keepin him out of the HOM so far.11. Bill Foster (ne) -- Had him higher in the preliminary. Haven't seen jaw-dropping data pour in for him. Slating him down with Redding until more information comes in.12. Dick Redding (ne-12-10-8-9-10-7) -- 2nd best fastball of the 10's according to Neyer/James. 13. George Sisler (ne-14-13-11-9-10-12-10) -- Peak candidate... before the injury (184 RC+) was a top-tier hitter, trailing only Ruth, Cobb, Hornsby, Speaker & Jackson with a big gap down to the next group of Heilmann, Youngs and Roush (155 RC+). After the injury, he was quite mediocre (103 RC+). Peak is high enough to make the ballot. His peak is shorter and lower than JJackson's which is what keeps him relatively low.14. Joe Sewell (ne-12-14-15-14) His RCAA numbers are good and earn him a place on the ballot. His RCAP numbers are a bit inflated due to his being 10 years older than Cronin/Vaughn/Appling.15. Dick Lundy (ne) -- Dropped a bit after preliminary. I was guessing that his numbers were going to be better. Fine player, still on the ballot which is no mean feat as a next generation of candidates is raising the bar for induction.

Leach -- Knocked off last week due to new eligibles.
Rixey -- Lingering near the edge of the ballot. Very good for a long time. I did like him better than Faber. Strong newcomers in the near future should keep him off, but he's on my radar.
Beckley -- Took a long look at him. Black Ink of 1. Top OPS finishes are 5-7-8-10.
Van Haltren -- Two 10ths and an AA-7th in OPS+ is not what I look for in a HOM outfield candidate. Win Shares fielding rating of B. Looks like the Hall of the Very Good to me.

1. Oscar Charleston (n/e). Probably the best player in the history of the Negro Leagues. Of all the comparisons that have been discussed, I think that Mickey Mantle is probably the best, because of Charleston’s plate discipline and his defensive decline in his thirties. Charleston’s peak was probably not quite as high as Manlte, but he was more productive later in his career.
2. Mickey Cochrane (n/e). Best full-career catcher so far eligible. My system shows him as very similar in value to Ewing and Santop. Love the on-base percentage. Would do very well on intangibles if I gave credit for them.
3. Frankie Frisch (n/e). Just behind Cochrane. Another leader-of-men. Interestingly, all three of the top candidates this year were successful player-managers. Although he’s not an all-time great, Frisch is still a shoo-in for the HoM. If it were up to me, he’d wait until next year for induction, but if the electorate puts him in ahead of Cochrane, I won’t say that they are wrong to do so.
4. Clark Griffith (1). Best candidate available from the underrepresented and underrated 1890s. Without contraction, there’d be no questions about his career length.
5. Eppa Rixey (2). Long, solidly above-average career. Runner-up in 1942 now has a long wait ahead of him. He’ll match up well with the second-tier pitchers of the 1930s and 1940s, though, so I’m confident he’ll get elected eventually.
6. John Beckwith (3) I look forward to the electorate giving Beckwith a bit more thought since he finished in the top 10 last year. I think his standing will only improve with more careful attention.
7. Bill Foster (n/e). A peak-pitcher candidate in the Vance/Coveleski mold. Difficulty of filtering team support out of available pitching statistics for Negro-Leaguers puts considerable guesswork into estimations of peak value, but we have the following indirect indications of his peak value: (1) consensus expert choice as best NeL lefthanded-pitcher of all time, (2) #2 among all Negro-League pitchers in black ink, based on Holway’s stats, with his career falling during the period of Negro-League history with the fullest stats and probably the highest level of competition, (3) his playoff record of 18-9 (including several legendary performances), which indicates he was a great big-game pitcher and thus confirms he had the dominance necessary for a great peak, (4) a documented stretch of 9 seasons as a work-horse starter without injuries. Given the available statistics, I’m not sure _exactly_ how great he was, but I’m sure he was great.
8. Hughie Jennings (5). Would share with Charleston the distinction of being the only players on the ballot who were ever the best player in baseball, except that Charleston peaked at the same time Ruth did. The greatness of his peak will not diminish with time. Would represent 1890s well.
9. George Van Haltren (6). Pennants added should remind the electorate that Van Haltren was a heck of a player. Even if WS overrates centerfielders and VH gets a boost from pitching, he’s a candidate who oughtn’t to be slipping towards oblivion just yet.
10. Edd Roush (7). Very similar in value to VH. Should be getting a bit more support. Missed a lot of games, but when he was on the field in his prime he was top-notch.
11. Tommy Leach (8) Finally getting his due. Won’t have a chance at election until the 1960s, but it looks like he’s more firmly on the radar now.
12. Dick Redding (9). Comparison to Foster indicates that Foster was better, but that Redding is very much in the running for the 4/5 slot among Negro-League pitchers (depending on how one deals with Rogan’s two-way package).
13. Jose Mendez (10). Brilliant at his peak, but it was too short to quite match the primes of Redding and Foster. If I had to win one game and could have any eligible pitcher at his best to throw it, I think I’d take Mendez, though. Someone should make a movie about him.
14. George Sisler (11). Nice peak.
15. Larry Doyle (12). Soon we’ll start falling behind on HoMers from the teens. Doyle should get more attention then.

Lefty Andy Cooper. Still not ranked. Part of the great NeL pitcher project still awaiting completion.

William Bell In the same group needing attention as Cooper. Sam Streeter deserves a look, too, though he's definitely below Cooper and Bell. Bill Holland will also soon join the group of very good NeL pitchers of the 20s and 30s needing to be ranked.

George Uhle. Haven’t studied him yet. Might break the top 50. Will try to study him in conjunction with Wes Ferrell next year: the two best-hitting pitchers of their era.

Buzz Arlett. Still haven’t decided how to place him, but he’s still under consideration.

It is fun to follow our bellwether voter. Every five years (or so) I display my full consideration set. This is one of those years. It is up to 52. A record, for me, 5 of 8 top 10 returness off my ballot.

3. Mickey Welch – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his oft repeated record against HoMers.

4. Frankie Frisch – has those hits I like and he played second base quite well. Nothing special in an inner-circle sense, but better than the backlog.

5. Jake Beckley -- ~3000 hits but no black ink at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars.

6. George Sisler – Hits impress me and he had a lot of them, plus a better peak than Beckley. I’ve put Beckley ahead of him because I’m a career voter.

7. Sam Rice – close to Beckley – I’ve put him behind Beckley and Sisler in a nod to the intelligence of the consensus. Pretty close to 9000 hits in these three candidates and it looks like they’ll side-by-side on my ballot for at least the next 15 to 20 years.

8. Bill Foster – The beginning of pitcher row. Consensus has him better than Redding, and Redding is good enough for me (in a vacuum – ie without peer review, I’d probably have Redding ahead of Foster, and Foster as low as twelfth, in Vance’s old spot right behind Waddell). I’m going to have to think about it.

9. Burleigh Grimes – takes Faber’s spot on my ballot. I like the wins, don’t like the ERA+. Welch-lite.

10. Eppa Rixey – back to his original spot in a dead heat with Grimes and Faber (the latter now elected).

11. Dick Redding – probably the 5th or 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams, Paige, Rube Foster and Rogan, and likely behind Bill Foster), and that is good enough for me.

12. Rube Waddell -- I like the three times ERA+ lead, the career 134 ERA+ and, of course, all those strikeouts (plus the 1905 Triple Crown).

13. Clark Griffith – 921 similarity score with mcginnity, who was 1st on my ballot when elected. He is barely worse than Grimes and barely better than Mendez, Joss, Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin, but I thought six pitchers in a row was enough.

14. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

15. Pete Browning – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected.

16. Joe Sewell – I’m assuming he was pretty good on defense. I don’t see him as a HoMer though. Beginning of infielders row.

17. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.

18. Pie Traynor -- just behind Leach. I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.

19. Beckwith – I’m assuming he was pretty bad on defence. The Beckwith thread is funny – Gadfly has him hitting .400 with 40HRs per year and Cobb has him at 297 career WS. I’m going with 95% of Cobb’s estimate. I like him better than Monroe and Moore but I’m not sure he’s Hornsby-dark.

20. Bill Munroe – I think he was pretty good. Any blackball player that is even talked about as among the best 70 years later is pretty good. I’ll take McGraw’s word for it.

21. Jose Mendez – somewhere between here and Waddell seems about right. Looks like he was the 7th best blackball pitcher. I could see him in my theoretical PHOM one day.

22. Addie Joss – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. Could be below Duffy. Nine pitchers in my top 22.

23. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

32 and 33. Veach and Hooper – I don’t think they will make my ballot. But if one of them does I may defer to Hooper’s 321 Win Shares and 2500 hits.

34. Jennings – he’d be lower for me if you guys weren’t all so sure he was great.

35 to 38. Maranville, Childs, Taylor, Moore

39. Gavvy Cravath – I’m not sure how to treat his non-ML time, but I do think one of the purposes of the HoM is to take into account great achievers outside the majors. Baker Bowl issues keep him here.

40. Konetchy – 287 Win Shares, but nothing really impressive on his resume, particularly for a firstbaseman. Belongs in the Hall of the Very Good.

41. Larry Doyle – not a bad hitter for a second baseman and it wasn’t a particularly strong decade for NL second sackers.

Somewhere between 23 and 53. Luque, Pennock, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane and Mullin -- pitcher glut; any of these guys could make my ballot if it ever has fewer than 4 pitchers on it; not that I have an actual quota.

3. Eppa Rixey (2) -- Pitcher replacement is lower than you think it is. Also, unlike hitter replacement, you can't really replace it with one guy. We're all pretty good at spouting off a list of replacement level position players who turned in 600 PA at their position. But how many replacement level pitchers can you name who threw 160-200 innings in their replacement level season? Part of being replacement level is that your innings necessarily drop. Besides being lower than hitters' replacment, a pitcher that has to be replaced with replacement-level talent essentially has to be replaced with 2 or 3 or 4 different pitchers. That's a hidden "cost" that doesn't get tallied when considering high IP, "very good" pitchers like Rixey.

4. Jake Beckley (1) -- I guess Jake and I will be hanging around together for a lot longer than I originally thought.

5. Mickey Cochrane (n/e) -- I was expected to place him #2, but I just failed to be that impressed on second look. He is certainly among the best catchers, but if I had him as a rookie, I'd trade him for any of the players above him in their rookie years.

6. Jose Mendez (3) -- Best of the Cuban pitchers, really of all time. Cuba has provided some of the best baseball talent of all time. Will the HoM be void of Cuban pitchers (Dihigo doesn't count)? If you don't like Mendez or Luque, you're probably does to Luis Tiant and Mike Cuellar as the next two reasonable candidates. I don't see either of them as better than Mendez or Luque. If your system doesn't include voting in any Cuban pitchers, maybe that suggests a flaw with your system?

7. Gavy Cravath (4) -- Full credit for the nearly-half of his career that is buried in old PCL and AA stat-books. Even conservative estimages put him above 300 win shares -- probably over 350. He was among the best deadball sluggers ever.

8. Dolf Luque (5) -- See Mendez comment. Also, Cravath comment. It took the World War player dearth for Luque to finally get a solid shot at the majors, despite numerous seasons of top-rate pitching at a young age in Cuba, the Negro Leagues, and the top white minors. He doesn't get credit for more than he did, but he does get to fill out the left side of his bell curve a little. Those Cuban league games counted too, and I think they have to be considered in creating the "big picture".

9. Mickey Welch (6) Am I getting bored, or just less impressed with his numbers to 400th time I've looked at them? I don't know. In any case, I'm less inspired about pushing his candidacy than I have been in previous years, and his "subjective points" ranking is starting to slide a little.

10. Roger Bresnahan (7) -- A highly-leveraged catcher. Look at his PA/G compared to his peers. Either he got lots of rest in blowouts, or, more likely, he was #1 off the bench on his days off. If you had a catcher who could hit like left fielder, wouldn't you try to get an extra PA out of him on his rest days? Amazing peak, and a long-enough career if you know who to compare him to.

11. John Beckwith (off) -- I am satisfied that he was sufficiently better than Sewell to warrant a ballot spot.

12. Pete Browning (8) -- One of the best hitters ever, but with one of the shortest careers. Season adjusted, he's Albert Belle.

Charleston is my #1, no question. Frisch is Rice, but playing 2B – not as good as Childs, albeit for longer. Cochrane is better than Schang, just below Browning; would be immediately behind Charleston if his career hadn’t been shortened. Bottomley nothing special for a 1B, but probably about #60. Herman needs about 10% more career for the ballot, 20% to be near the top of it. Haines also about #60. Bill Foster isn’t quite Covaleski, even giving benefit of doubt; I’ve thus got him around Vance’s slot. Lundy I have a little higher, but still off my 1-15 ballot. Judy Johnson short career and nothing special, so off the bottom. Beckwith moves up a bit, to just below Sewell, and will make ballot in weaker year.

1. (N/A) Oscar Charleston. Here at last is an NL player that I am totally confident belongs at the top of the ballot, even ahead of Frisch, Cochrane and Beckley. Red carpet, bowing doorman, the lot. Class is class.

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-1) Jake Beckley. Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. Marginally ahead of Welch, as we have seen more 307-win pitchers (now 10 others among currently HOM-eligible) than 2930-hit hitters (now 8 others). TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals.

3. (15-14-11-12-10-9-6-8-7-7-6-7-6-3-3-3-2-3-2-2-3-2-4-5-4-2-3-2-3-3-2-3-3-2-2-3-7-5-5-3-2-2-2-4-2) Mickey Welch. 307-210 comes to impress me more and more, particularly as we get more and more of the 1920s pitcher glut. 1885 looks like a pretty good peak too; 44-11 with a 1.67 ERA is pretty impressive, compared for example to Clarkson’s 49-19 at 2.73 in 1889. With 4802 IP, OK at an ERA+of 113 (but he never heard of ERA) he was far better than most of the 00s and 20s pitchers under consideration, none of whom (other than Young, Matty and Alex) got near 300 wins, and many of whom had ERA+s little better than Welch.

4. (N/A-6-4-3-3-3-5-3) George Sisler. 2812 hits, OPS+ 124 puts him just below Beckley and Welch. TB+BB/PA .482, TB+BB/Outs .748. Better singles hitter than Ichiro!, his record having been set in a 154 game season. And he had power too.

5. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity. Successfully cursed Red Sox for over 8 decades!

6. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

7. (N/A) Mickey Cochrane. Very short career, only 1683 normalized (130 game season) hits. But TB+BB/PA = .536, TB+BB/Outs .896, in a run-heavy era, better than Bill Terry, and a lot better than Schang. OPS+126 puts him here.

8. (N/A-14-13-15-N/A-15-N/A-14-N/A-10-8-7-6-5-5-7-11-9-10-8-6-6-6-8-6) Clark Griffith He’s another Amos Rusie, but not quite as good. 3385 IP, 237 wins and an ERA+ of 121 not outstanding, but his winning percentage is good and his 1898 peak is nice.

9. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7) Sam Leever. 194-100 is more career than 1720 hits, so Leever goes above Childs. That and an ERA+ of 123 also get him above Van Haltren and Ryan, there being no outfielder dearth. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Much better ERA+ than Tannehill, and W/L pct close to record territory, MUCH better than the 1920s glut. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

11. (N/A-8-7-8-14-13-14-13-9-9-10-11-9) Cupid Childs. OPS+119, almost the same as the 90s trio, and TB+BB/PA .470, TB+BB/Outs .797 highly competitive with them. Main negative is only 1720 hits, or about 1780 even if you normalize him to a 130 games played season. Nevertheless, he was a 2B.

12. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF, and also on reflection above Tiernan

13. (N/A-7-13-11) Hack Wilson TB+BB/PA = .588, TB+BB/Outs = .954, OPS+ 144 Downgrade a bit because of short career and Hornsby is a LOT better (he does appear to have known about BB, unlike some others.) Very short career, but quality too good to ignore. OPS+ slightly below Jones, so here he goes.

14. Frankie Frisch. He was just about as good as Rice, for slightly shorter period, but played 2B so here seems about right. TB+BB/PA .462, TB+BB/Outs .707 significantly worse than Childs and similar to Sewell, but longer career.

15. (N/A-11-12-11-11-12-13-14-12) Carl Mays Somewhat better W/L and WS than Coveleski, not quite as good an ERA+. He’s very close to Coveleski, I’m fairly sure he’s not as good as Leever. Hitting pushes him just above where Coveleski was, and above Faber/Rixey.

OFF BALLOT
16. (N/A-11-12-15-14) Joe Sewell 2226 hits, TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .721, so not sure why OPS+ as low as 109. You could argue he’s better than Schang and Childs, you can’t argue he’s worse than Groh, especially as he was mainly a SS.

17. John Beckwith. A bit more confident, now I’ve seen we’re not automatically enshrining Lundy/Foster/Johnson

18. (N/A-14-N/A-15) Sam Rice 2987 hits, but OPS+ only 112 TB+BB/PA.455, TB+BB/Outs .702, so not as good a hitter as Sewell on raw data.

19. (N/A-6-5-9-8-9-8-7-10-11-8-9-7-7-6-6-9-9-8-6-6-6-5-4-8-7-9-12-N/A-14-13-15-N/A) Hugh Duffy TB+BB/PA of .489 and TB/Outs of .788, but this in the high-offense 1890s, and he’s way below Beckley on total hits. Like the 1894 peak, though - and it’s ’94 not ’93, pitchers had had a year to adjust. Significantly behind Beckley on counting considerations, and Browning on rate considerations.

20. (N/A-13-15-N/A-15-15-N/A) Vic Willis 249-205 and ERA+ of 118 get him here. Lots of IP – 3996 --, but W/L pct nothing special

21. (N/A) Burleigh Grimes. ERA+ nothing special at 107, but 270-212 is the best on the ballot apart from Welch, and he hit better than any pitcher on the ballot apart from Mays.

22. (N/A) Eppa Rixey, 266-251 and ERA+ of 115, not quite as good as Willis, even though huge 4,494 IP. Drifting away from bottom of ballot, but may get lucky in the future.

23. (N/A-9-10-10-13-N/A) Mike Tiernan - only 1,983 normalized hits, so only on the ballot in weak years. Does well against the 90s trio, whose OPS+ and rate stats are distinctly lower. TB+BB/PA .518, TB+BB/Outs .850, so close to Browning (in an easier era for hitters).

24. (N/A-11-14-N/A) Rube Waddell Short career but very high peak. 2961 IP, and W/L193-143 not at all special. Fielding and hitting negative, not positive – but he’s considerably better than Mendez, with ERA+ of 134. His unearned runs prevent him moving higher than this.

25. (N/A) Dick Lundy Just a few spots below Sewell, based on his MLEs.

26. (N/A) Hughie Jennings OPS+ 117 and he was a shortstop and he had a superb peak, but only 1527 hits. TB+BB/PA .414, TB+BB/Outs .671, so he’s not as good as Childs. Extra bonus for the peak.

1943 Ballot (MVP candidates, All-Star candidates, and total HOM seasons are my own generalizations based on raw WS and yearly competition. All-Star candidate is roughly the top 16 pitchers and top 32 players. MVP candidate is anyone with double the WS numbers of the worst All-Star candidate in that season. I have slowly started to incorporate WARP and Pennants Added.)

1. Oscar Charleston The best power/speed combination in history. Here in 1943 he’s still pinch hitting and playing first occasionally. PHOM 1943.

3. Bill Foster The best left handed pitcher in Negro Leagues history. Generally accepted to be in the all-time Negro Leagues rotation. That’s enough for me.

4. Frankie Frisch I always forget how good he was with the Giants. Also, his teams generally won, as he played in 8 World Series, 4 each with the Giants and Cardinals. I think of him as a successful manager, but he only managed the 1934 Series team. MVP Candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1927. All-Star Candidate 1922, 1925-1926, 1928-1931, 1933-1934.

5. John Beckwith Based on the discussions he seems to be a sure HOM player. I for one tend to think of the top Negro League teams as better than AAA, although worse than the white majors. PHOM 1942.

6. George Van Haltren Only one season among top 8 players (1898). Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1901. That is 14 consecutive solid years, the majority in a tough consolidated league. One question I will explore next week: Was Van Haltren really done in 1904, or did he pull a Kid Nichols and go to the minors to participate in management/ownership? I realize he had a poor 1903 season in the majors, but I think put up decent PCL numbers for a couple of years. (14 HOM seasons) PHOM 1929.

7. Jake Beckley In his 16 All-Star seasons, he only averaged about 60% of MVP value, so that hurts him with peak voters. When peak calculations are factored in, his numbers alone do not place him here, but positional adjustment does. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1888-1895, 1897, 1899-1905. (16 HOM seasons) PHOM 1928.

9. Burleigh Grimes According to Win Shares, when both were starters, Grimes was better than Rixey in the same league in 1918, 1919, 1920, 1921, 1926, 1928, 1929, 1930 and 1931. They were about equal in 1924 and 1927. Rixey was better during 1916, 1917, 1922, 1923, and 1925. Rixey also pitched a few more seasons in 1912, 1913, 1914 and 1915 prior to the start of Grimes’ career, but wasn’t anything special during those years. MVP candidate 1918, 1920. All-Star candidate 1921, 1923-1924, 1926-1930. (10 HOM seasons).

10. Eppa Rixey Consistently above average. I’m not sure why he rates so much higher than contemporary Grimes. In 1912, 1913, 1914 and 1915, Rixey was a serviceable to bad pitcher. In 1916 he was an All-Star. In 1917 he was solid. He served in 1918 and 1919. Grimes was an All-Star in 1918 and had a poor 1919. In 1920 and 1921, Grimes was significantly better than Rixey, and was probably the top pitcher in the NL. Rixey was significantly better in 1922, but was not the top NL pitcher. They were very close in 1923 and 1924, with Rixey getting a slight edge. Rixey had a significantly superior 1925. From 1926-1927 they were close, but neither was really an All-Star. In 1928 and 1929 Grimes again was a top pitcher in the NL, significantly better than Rixey. In 1930 and 1931 Grimes was a solid starter, Rixey was essentially done. From 1932-1934, both were hanging around. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1916-1917, 1920-1925, 1927-1929, war credit 1918 (12 HOM seasons). PHOM 1939.

12. Dobie Moore A reevaluation of him puts him above all but the top ballot placers. He came very close to beating out Beckwith at #5. Perhaps next week he will move higher. I realized my Hughie Jennings argument (one or two more great seasons would put him over the top) applies to Moore.

13. Joe Sewell Looks like the best of the available major league infielders to me. Never an MVP candidate, All-Star candidate 1921-1929, 1931-1933 (12 HOM seasons).

14. Dick Redding I just don’t see where to slot Negro League pitchers, but Redding seems worthy of induction some time.

15. Bill Monroe Seems to have suffered because of lack of documentation.

LAST YEAR TOP TEN/NEW NOTABLES

Clark Griffith –I think that he had a relatively short productive career, and didn’t have nearly the peak of a Walsh, Brown, Vance or perhaps even Waddell. He needs to get a pretty steep 1890s pitcher premium to make my ballot. All-Star candidate 1894-1901 (8 HOM seasons)

Hughie Jennings – Even the greatest five year peak (Babe Ruth) wouldn’t make my ballot by itself. I need some above average play outside that peak. Six years is a little better. Seven years might get a player in my PHOM (see Ed Walsh.) Five just doesn’t give me enough. MVP candidate 1894-1898. (5 HOM seasons)

Dick Lundy – Very close to my ballot. I think he’s a touch below Sewell, but I am not sure.

Missing from my PHOM:

Terry (will make it some day
Coveleski (will make it some day)
Vance (will make it some day)
Faber (may never make it, even with the peak adjustment)
Thompson (will never make it)

Started working on an overhaul on my ballot, so that is less mechanical, but until next year, I am mostly using Win Shares with a bonus for peak seasons. Discounting pre-1893 pitching accomplishments, and giving catchers and middle infielders a boost.

1)OSCAR CHARLESTON – Buck O’Neil thinks he was the best player ever, does that count for anything? Even if Buck is wrong, he isn’t wrong by much.
2)FRANK FRISCH – He has almost 100 career more win shares than Cocharne, and Mickey’s big seasons aren’t way better than Frank’s. I might have them in the wrong order, but to me they are both obvious HOMers, and it doesn’t matter to me which one gets in first.
3)MICKEY COCHARNE – Mutt Mantle’s favorite player.
4)TOMMY LEACH – Suppose he is the fourth best 3b ever in 1943, but in 1983 there were five active third basemen you’d rather have? Does that mean you should place him lower in 1943? Part of my ballot re-design, might send my former number one plummeting.
5)EDD ROUSH – The best of the outfield candidates due to his high peak.
6)EPPA RIXEY – in “1942” Joe D. mentioned the fact that he missed a season due to WWI, I gave him a little credit for that and it was enough to make him the top pitcher on my ballot.
7)VIC WILLIS – I am placing him above Foster in Redding because I can look see his stats, and they are what they are.

8)BILL FOSTER – Well, if he was considered better than Redding by people that study such things, I guess I will go along. However it might hurt both of their candidacies on my ballot.
9)DICK REDDING – Capped by Foster, and thus lowered in my estimation.
10)GEORGE VAN HALTREN – Separating Ryan, GVH and Duffy is hard. I read the arguments in the pre-ballot discussion and was convinced that a closer look at the three is in order before 1944, if I thought it would impact their elections in 1943 I would have done it this year.
11)LARRY DOYLE – Doyle is a better offensive player than any of the shortstops, and none of them dominate him in career length, so I think he has to slot in here.

12)GEORGE J. BURNS – Another person who faces the same questions as Leach, I think he is probably making his last ballot appearance for me.

13)RABBIT MARANVILLE – Longest career of the shortstops, but mediocre peak.

Two top tens from last year that I don’t have in the top 25, Clark Griffith(33), Jennings (42). Jennings has a short career and an awesome peak, not my cup of tea.
Griffith? Why him and not Willis, or Grimes? Both have more win shares, and equally impressive peaks. I’ll read his defenders explanations closer this year, and see what I might learn.

1 (new) Oscar Charleston. Exceptional in hitting for average and power, baserunning, and fielding range. He reminds me of the young, pre-war Joe Dimaggio.

2 (new) Mickey Cochrane. His remarkable OBP is BA-heavy, which I like. He also caught more games in his prime seasons than most other starting catchers.

3 (5-4) John Beckwith. About where I would put Dick Allen, who I see as a roughly comparable player for both his offensive production and his hot temper.

4 (new) Frankie Frisch. Not as historically great as I had thought. His career resembles a long "decline" from his great years with the McGraw Giants of the early '20s. Even so, he remains HoM-worthy.

5 (3-1) George Sisler. How many position players on this ballot have a 124 ERA+ in 111 innings of pitching? Remember, he once beat Ruth in a 1-0 shutout. His context-adjusted pitching is more meritious than either Ryan's or Van Haltren's. Plus, he was a fine hitter.

6 (new) Bill Foster. The NeL experts place him in the Coveleski/Vance mode. I see him as a Coveleski-plus for now. He could rise in future elections.

7 (8-7) Clark Griffith. Adjusted well to the post-1894 distance. His career record compares favorably to HoM inductee and contemporary Joe McGinnity.

9 (off-6) Edd Roush. His context-adjusted offense is as good as Ryan's or Van Haltren's, and his outfield defense is noticeably superior to both. Playing time issues drop his placement this year.

10 (9-5) Tommy Leach. His exemplary defensive value and timely hitting in a low-scoring era is worthy of HoM induction. No longer an inner-circle HoMer to me, he is still one of the top 200 players ever.

11 (off-off) Hugh Duffy. More and more, I believe that the HoF did right by admitting outstanding defensive OFs Roush and Duffy and excluding average defensive OFs Ryan, Van Haltren, etc.

--------PHoM line--------

12 (10-11) Jake Beckley. I compared Beckley to another long career type, Harold Baines:

Beckley 2930 hits, 125 OPS+
Baines 2866 hits, 120 OPS+

Baines falls into the Hall of Very Good; Beckley, then, is a borderline case.

13 (new) Dick Lundy. His offensive and defensive value seems similar to Sewell, his near contemporary. I need stronger evidence before I place him high on my ballot.

14 (off-10) Ned Williamson. Why did Ezra Sutton earn so much more love from the voters than ol' Ned? His OPS+ compares well (Ed 113, Ezra 119) and Ed was at least as good as Ezra on defense.

2. Mickey Cochrane (-)--Him too. He has more WARP3 than WARP1, that’s weird.

3. Frankie Frisch (-)--Him three. May be underrating him. Cohrane has the edge because of his position.

4. Pete Browning (1)--AA discount and short career keeps him behind Pike. The man could hit. We know Win Shares likes him better than Sam Thompson, but did you know the BP stats show Browning to be the better hitter? Thompson’s edge in WARP is only in fielding and Davenport’s AA discount. Considering the problems Davenport’s had with 19th century OF fielding and the unknown natue of his AA discount, I don’t know how one could rate Thompson ahead based on WARP. (1927)

1. Oscar Charleston (new, PHoM 1943). Probably not the greatest CF to date, but one of the half dozen easiest #1s.

2. Mickey Cochrane (new, PHoM 1943). Maybe not the raw value of Frisch, but a unique talent. No C for two generations played as often or with his level of offensive contribution, much less both. Granted, his rough contemporary Gabby Hartnett is just a hair's-breadth behind.

3. Frankie Frisch (new). Glad I can keep him out of the PHoM for at least one year and in good conscience. But he's a pretty obvious HoMer, like it or not.

7. Rube Waddell (4-5-10, PHoM 1932). Can't argue ERA+ and at least a moderate-length career for a Tier 2 pitcher.

8. Bill Foster (new). I thought he would rank a little higher, too. I had him #4 on my prelim. But he still looks like a HoMer.

9. Tommy Bond (11-x-4, PHoM 1929). I keep trying to cut him loose. Yeah, ERA+ 110. But for his peak/prime, which was a good long time in IP, it was over 130.

10. John Beckwith (13-14-15). Keeps moving up but I'm trying to be cautious. Barely played any longer than Dobie Moore if you count the army, not better at bat, and certainly not better with the glove.

11. Ed Williamson (6-8-12, PHoM 1824). Another guy who's going nowhere by way of consensus. I keep trying to clear his ballot spot but a guilty conscience always intervenes. A stud in every way.

12. Larry Doyle (15-x-11). Probably a PHoMer someday, when we get to the 3-fers. Not sure if he was really better than Childs but I KNOW he was better than Sewell or Traynor.

14. Pie Traynor (7-10-x). I'm becoming more of a career voter in the 20th century when, in the MLs at least, there were fewer ways for guys to end up with oddly shaped, high peak-short length careers. Pie was no Big Ed but a steady presence at a position that was still difficult enough (or why aren't there more great ones?).

15. Addie Joss (9-13-x). Moved up in my recent P re-consideration. Hard to argue with a 142 ERA+. For me his short career is not what really holds him back, it was the lack of "workhorseability" during his best years.

Dropped out: C. Jones (12-11-9) and Childs (14-x-10). As much as I like them both, if I had my druthers I'd go for Jennings, Williamson and Bond before closing out the 19C.

Required: Rixey (#25), Griffith (#26), Van Haltren (#38), Leach (#32) and Beckley (#40) all remain top 50. The first 3 have been on my ballot, and Rixey and Griffith could be again someday.

I have days (OK, in some cases night[mares]) in which any one of these 50 is ballot-worthy. Please can we start electing 3 soon? Can we, can we? I mean even poor misunderstood Jim Bottomley was really quite a good player, not a HoMer certainly, but not a man to be ridiculed like a Tommy McCarthy or Freddie Lindstrom. Maybe even a top 10 1B all-time at the time of his retirement. Not for long thereafter, of course.

System: Win shares in 3 straight years – peak. Win shares in best 7 years – prime. Win shares per 648 plate appearances. For pitchers it is win shares per 300 innings pitched if the career was after 1893. Win shares in career. the first, second, and fourth are adjusted for season length. Prime is weighted the heaviest, then peak, then career and seasonal are about the same. Also, I factor in times being best in league at one’s position and one’s competition. I factor in black ink and grey ink. I rely heavily on the NeL threads and figures to get a feel for players and then try to find a comparable player that we have full stats for.

1. Oscar Charleston: Mickey Mantle without the leg injuries? If not that good, still a no brainer.

2. Mickey Cochrane: Best catcher so far. Best in majors 6 times. Best in AL 3 more times. Almost best in majors for 9 straight years. .419 OBP. Only Chance is better per season. (29.4 win shares per 648 PA, 30.06 per 162 gs).

3. Mickey Welch: His career record against Hall of Merit pitchers: 61-34
It seems to me the most popular reason not to vote for Welch is his ERA+ is not as good as other pitchers from his time. I thought I would take a look at what could cause this and what this difference actually meant.
First, the defensive support:
Number of times he pitched for a team that max’d out its defensive win shares: once
Number of time other HoM pitchers had similar defenisve support:Ward: twice - 1880, 1882Galvin: twice - 1879, 1885Keefe: four - 1883, 1884, 1885, 1892 Radbourn: five - 1882, 1883, 1884, 1889, 1890Clarkson: eight - 1885, 1886, 1887, 1889, 1890, 1891, 1892 (both teams he pitched for this year), 1894Caruthers: five - 1884, 1885, 1886, 1887, 1888Rusie: once – 1894

This may have something to do with why Galvin and Welch had such lower ERA+ than other Keefe, Radbourn, Clarkson, or Caruthers.
Second, what does the ERA+ difference mean?
For example, Radbourn had a 2.67 career ERA in leagues with a composite 3.21 ERA for an ERA+ of 120. Welch, 2.71 in 3.06 leagues for an ERA+ of 113. So adjusting to Radbourn’s ERA context Welch would have an ERA of 2.84. Over 450 innings that difference is 8.5 earned runs.
Keefe’s 125 based on 2.62 in 3.28 leagues? Welch would have an ERA of 2.90. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 14 earned runs.
Clarkson’s 134 based on 2.81 in 3.75? Welch would have an ERA of 3.32. Over 450 innings that is a difference of 25.5 earned runs.
Now look again at the times each pitcher had defensive support that max’d out.
Obviously, it was not all defensive support that made the difference. But, put each pitcher in front of the same defense and their numbers will be closer together.
To look at it slightly differently cut the earned runs difference per their average season of 450 innings into today’s era with 225 innings pitched. Radbourn would allow just over 4 earned runs fewer than Welch, Keefe – 7, and Clarkson – 13. So when you say you can’t vote for Welch because he has a 113 ERA+, does that mean you can’t vote for him because of literally a handful of runs a season?

4. Charley Jones: I give full credit for the 2 and one-sixth black-balled years. 4th in peak (Jennings, Browning, Duffy), 1st in prime, 7th in per season, 4th in career (behind Van Haltren, Ryan, Beckley). 4 times a Win Shares all-star, 3 times best in majors. 5 times a STATS all-star. OPS+ of 149 is 3rd (Browning, Cravath). Adjusted for season length, 9 20 ws seasons, 6 - 25+, 4 - 30+ and that is without giving credit for the missing years. 8th in black ink, 4th in grey ink. 8th most pennants added.

6. Hugh Duffy: Prime – 3rd (Jones, Browning). Peak – 3rd (Jennings, Browning). Career – 8th. Excellent defensive center fielder on one of the best defensive teams ever. Rates at an A+ with 4 gold gloves. Only Van Haltren has more pennants added. 5 times a Win Shares all-star. Only Cravath has more black ink.

7. Frankie Frisch: Gets here on basis of long career that is mostly prime. Overshadowed by Hornsby for much of the 1920s. Excellent fielder – A+ by win shares. My system sees him as the best infielder available. Only GVH has more adjWS for career. Holding him back – his peak seasons did not occur in a row, his OPS+ is only 111. If my PHOM was up-to-date, he would make it w/i a couple of years.

8. George Van Haltren: Career – Best. Prime – 5th (Jones, Browning, Duffy, Burns). What hurts him is his peak and seasonal numbers. 12 years with 20+ win shares. Adjust for season length and 9 are over 25. 2 times win shares league and majors all-star. Very consistent player.

9. Jose Mendez: Moved down slightly from where raw NeL translations put him in order to be cautious. If the translations are valid, only Redding and Waddell had comparable peaks (and Grove and Dean now that they are retired). Only Willis had a comparable prime. (plus Grove, Redding, and Ferrell). I am not 100% sure about the conversions, but if Mendez is supposed to be one of the top NeL/Cuban pitchers then this spot feels right.

10. Spots Poles: I am a little more comfortable with the translations for hitters. The seasons in the NeL were so short there can definitely be a sample size issue. Long consistent career with a peak similar to Van Haltren and a prime similar to George Burns and Van Haltren. And a career total behind only Van Haltren and Frisch.

11. Cupid Childs: Biggest move up from raw numbers. Numbers see him as the best second baseman eligible along with Dobie Moore. Best second baseman in majors 1890-1896. Also had 2 second bests afterward. If you want to discount his 1890 season in the American Association where he was the best player in the league, but even with a discount, he was the best second basemen in the game. Hub Collins had 3 fewer win shares in the National League – which lost most of its best players to the Players League also. The best in the Players League had 11 fewer. Tenth in prime.

12. George Burns: Steps back in front of Roush this time. 4th in prime (Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5th in peak (Jennings, Jones, Browning, Duffy). 5 times all-star and 3 times majors by win-shares. Great lead-off man (who have definitely been overlooked). 3rd in black ink (Cravath and Duffy). 13th in grey ink. 10 years with 20+ win shares.

13. Bill Foster: There are many comparisons to Coveleski. Coveleski was 11th on my ballot the year he was elected and there are better candidates this year so I moved him down a couple of spots. Chris, do you think it would be possible to work up win shares seasonal estimates for Foster? Is there an estimate of the height of his peak?

14. Edd Roush: 11th in prime, 9th in peak, 10th in season. 9th in career. A solid to excellent player for a long period of time. An A- defender with 5 gold glvoes. 5 times a win shares all-star. 9 seasons with 20+ win shares.

15. Tommy Leach: Great career – 5th highest. 13th in prime. Fantastic defender. An A+ 3rd baseman who moved to center after an arm injury and played A+ defense there as well getting 2 gold gloves at third and 5 in center. See him as instrumental along with Wagner in the Pirates ability to get great pitching seasons from just about everybody from 1900-1915.

16: Hughie Jennings: Best peak. 6th best prime (and I set my prime at 7 years in order to avoid primes that were too short – maybe it should have been 8...). An A+ shortstop for one of the 2 best teams of the 1890s. 4 times best in league, 4 times best in majors.

17. John Beckwith: Put in the new numbers from the Beckwith thread. In most years, he would make the ballot. Just too many good candidates this year. I looked at the home run top 10s from 1920-1934 and his career numbers, 22 per 550 AB would put him in the top 10 for each league for almost every year.

18. Dobie Moore: Short career, high peak. Beckwith is better on career, Moore is better on per season basis and they push on peak and prime in my system. Beckwith’s longer career overcomes (for this year) Moore’s advantage in the field.

19. Dick Redding: Based on pitching numbers only. Peak and prime not as high as Mendez though he did pitch quite a bit more innings. Moved down several spots because of worry about there being too much peak in the translations.

20. Vic Willis: Thought he was getting too much of a boost in career value because of the innings he pitched and I was not able to tell how much of his value are due to the innings he pitched due to the time when he played compared to the innings eaters of the 20s/30s. Since I don’t know if any of them belong, Willis has to wait to be reconsidered.

21. Frank Chance: raw numbers place him just behind Sisler, but his seasonal numbers push him a bit higher. No other candidate has as many win shares per 648 PA.

22. George Sisler: Excellent first half of a career. There just is not a strong enough career to push his strong first half over into ballot territory, but it is close.

23. Wilbur Cooper: Part of a knot of pitchers with Griffith, Mays, and Waddell. Like the rest, the black ink is not great (except for Waddell’s strikeouts which do not impress me), the grey ink is similar. Cooper has the most league all-star seasons among them.

24. Clark Griffith: Raw numbers place him a few places higher, but not enough big years. 2 years is not enough (unless your name is Red Faber...). I think it took a lot longer for pitchers’ arms and managerial strategy to adapt to the 60’6” distance. Other than Young and Nichols there were no other pitchers who could handle league-leading totals year after year. I think managers and pitchers did not realize that it was not healthy for the arm to pitch as much as they did. For one or two years, arms could handle it, but then Poof. For many pitchers in the 1890s, they had to learn to throw at a longer distance – relearn how to throw a breaking pitch, etc, after their arms had matured AND while being asked to pitch huge numbers of innings.
Griffith was not asked to pitch these huge totals and so he stayed healthy and got to put up very good career totals.

25. Carl Mays: Another 3000 IP pitcher. 4 win shares all-star years. Great defensive and offensive support may support a lowering of his ranking. I’ll take his being an ass over Waddell’s inconsistency (drink, low IQ, retardation, whatever the cause.)

26. Rube Waddell: see above.

27. Fielder Jones: Great defense. A+ outfielder. Had his best season in his last, then quit to use his engineering degree rather than continue to deal with Comiskey. Does not get any extra credit, but wonder what his career would look like if he kept playing. 10 20+ seasons, 6 25+.

28. Bobby Veach: Great hitter and very good leftfielder. Just didn’t have the career length or the per season numbers to overcome a peak or prime that many others have. Did have 3 30+ seasons and 4 times a league all-star, but only once a majors. Much better than many in the HoF.

29. Larry Doyle: Great hitter. Best secondbasemen in NL in the teens – helped the Giants to 4 pennants. Great hitter at the position. Average fielder at the position before it had quite the defensive importance it does now.

30. Ed Konetchy: 7 time league all-star, 4 times best in majors. Think his defense is undervalued.

31. Jimmy Ryan: Long career. Great first half like Sisler. Collapse after injuries like Ryan with one last hurrah season. I just cannot elect a player who was an average at best and usually a below average player over the last half of his career.

32. Roy Thomas: Good peak and prime, excellent seasonal numbers. Fantastic on-base numbers. Makes Sean Burroughs look like a power hitter. OPS+ of 123. 4 times league all-star. Short career.

33. Burleigh Grimes: Great black and grey ink, pitched forever. Peak was weak, but did have 6 times as a league all-star, but I don’t think the competition was that special.

34. Hack Wilson: Great peak and good prime and seasonal numbers. Career was too short to rank higher. 4 times a league all-star, 2 times majors. Very good black ink numbers.

35. Joe Sewell: He was most consistent shortstop whose career centered on the 1920s. Well, we might as well elect Jack Morris with that reasoning. Jennings’ and Beckwith’s peak makes him much more valuable than Sewell. Tinker and Jennings have better seasonal rates; Maranville has by far better career win shares; Jennings Long Bancroft and Tinker have a better peak; and Jennings has a better prime. Oh, defensively, he and Bancroft were the only eligibles who were not A+ fielders (Travis Jackson does not count despite what Frisch has to say.)

On Martin Luther King Day, it's a privilege to be able to vote for arguably the greatest of the Negro League players. Three other outstanding new candidates show up at the top of my ballot.

1. Oscar Charleston –
The first paragraph of his bio in Riley compares Charleston to Ruth as a slugger, to Cobb as a baserunner, and to Speaker as a center fielder. Although he probably didn't actually match each of them at their strengths, he clearly ranks as one of the all-time greats.

2. Mickey Cochrane –
I thought he would be near unanimous for the number two position, so I've been surprised to see a couple of the early ballots ranking him fifth or lower. IMO he's clearly the greatest catcher eligible to date. Do you remember the Hall of Fame definitions that Bill James put forward in the 1986 BJHBA? Cochrane qualifies as a Definition-A HOMer.

3. Frankie Frisch –
Not a great hitter, his glove places him ahead of Childs and Doyle. Frisch is a Definition-B HOMer.

I also give small bonuses to players for post-season and clutch performances. Foster was great in those situations. For example in 1926, needing to win both games in a final-day doubleheader to win the pennant, Foster started and won both games, defeating Bullet Rogan in each contest. He followed with a sensational World Series (4 games, 3 starts, 2 victories, 1.27 ERA).

5. Hughie Jennings –
According to WS, one of the best defensive SS of all time, and I believe it. Combine that with outstanding offense (OPS+ from 1894-98 of 110, 143, 152, 146, and 149) and it's not surprising that his team won 3 pennants and placed second the other two seasons. Better peak than most HOMers.

None of the other new arrivals makes my top 50, though <b>Dick Lundy just misses (I have Dave Bancroft at # 50 and Dick Lundy right below him). Babe Herman and Jim Bottomley aren't too far out—would probably place in the mid-60s if I went that far. Jesse Haines and Chick Hafey are pure Definition D candidates; the HOM would have to be 3 to 4 times as large to include them.

My major league equivalent projections were to a neutral stadium, whereas Klein's numbers were boosted by spending his peak years playing in the Baker Bowl. My guess is that controlling for differences in run environments, you'd find Klein slightly ahead in peak value, but Arlett ahead over his career.

1943 ballot. There won't be much suspense this year and I won't add to it.1. Oscar Charleston (new) Among this year's new candidates, the only one I think of as being inner circle.2. Mickey Cochrane (new) Either there's a bonus for catchers or we hardly have any of them. How good was his offense? Some outfielders I see as of similar offensive value: Hartsel, Veach, Combs. But if you compare him only to catchers, he's the best white catcher we've had in a long, long time and the best we're going to have for a long time to come (although Hartnett is quite close.)3. George Van Haltren (3, 1, 2, 3, 1) As "peakless" careers go, he's got substantially more offensive peak than the likes of Beckley or Hooper. Not much pitching value (and it was a whole lot easier to be a pitcher-hitter before 1893 than after), but what little pitching there is serves as a tiebreaker among similar candidates.4. Frankie Frisch (new) I haven't settled on my ranking for Frisch. Since I haven't run any modern middle infielders, I don't know where he would fit on the scale with Alomar, Biggio, Knoblauch, Larkin, Trammell, Whitaker, Sandberg - but the context is probably in there somewhere. I can compare him to the man he succeeded as 2B of the Giants: Doyle. They're 12 years apart in age and 12 years apart in beginning of career (1907, 1919). They were even teammates in 1919 and 1920. (Frisch played 3B; he didn't move to second until after Doyle was gone.) If I evaluatethem by context-adjusted RCAA and sort their years from best to worst, Doyle comes off as the better offensive player for every year from 1 through 13, and by healthy margins in the best year and the 3rd through 8th best years. Most of the years beyond that, Frisch was below league average.

So Doyle was the better hitter. But Frisch had the longer career, by over 500 games, and Frisch was a much better defensive infielder. Does the defense and the hang-around value make up for the offensive difference? Did the NL recover to being the equal of the AL is Frisch's time, whereas it had been weaker in Doyle's time? In any case, I've decided to put Frisch ahead of Doyle. (They'll both be blown away pretty soon by a player who just retired this year: Charlie Gehringer.)5. Joe Sewell (-, 3, 5, 5, 3) If only he'd had 2 or 3 more good years - then he'd be an easy choice. Come to think of it, I could say that about a lot of people, including Childs.6. Larry Doyle (1, 4, 4, 6, 4) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time.7. John Beckwith (--, 5, 7, 5) Doyle and Beckwith: infielders who could really hit. Beckwith had an environment more favorable to a hitter, and not all of the instabilities of his career were out of his own control.8. Eppa Rixey (-, 5, 6, 8, 7) A successful long-career inning-eater. No peak.9. Bill Foster (new) He could be very similar to Vance and Coveleski, already elected. He could also be similar to Carl Mays and Babe Adams, who have fallen out of consideration.10. Jake Beckley (13, 6, 7, 9, 8) Not much peak, long career.11. Cupid Childs (--, 7, 8, 11, 9) Like a lot of people, his career is too short. Not the offensive peak of Doyle, but it is a real peak.12. Hugh Duffy (6, 9, 9, 12, 11) 37th year on my ballot. Defense gets him this far.13. Edd Roush (8, 10, 10, 13, 11) Nearly the same offensive value as the leftover 1890's guys; better hitter than Carey.14. George Sisler (15, 11, 11, 14, 12) My peak-heavy offensive evaluation system likes Chance ahead of Sisler, and Sisler ahead of Beckley. The order gets reversed because of playing time. 15. Pie Traynor (---, 10, 13) Similar to Sewell: an above-average hitter playing a key defensive position for not quite enough years to clinch his candidacy. But I think I started him too high.
16. Rube Waddell (9, 12, 12, 15, 14) The best one left from his generation. Value crammed into a very few years.
17. Jose Mendez (10, 13, 13, 16, 15) Others have made his case better than I could, but he's right there.
18. Frank Chance (17, 14, 14, 17, 16) Huge offensive seasons, discounted for his lack of playing time. Still has a chance to get back to my ballot.
19. Roger Bresnahan (12, 15, 15, 18, 17) Very good offense for a catcher; not enough if we think of him as an outfielder.
20. Jimmy Ryan (5, 16, 16, 19, 18) Not beyond reconsideration.
21. Dick Redding (11, 17, 17, 20, 19)
22. Hugh Jennings (25, 18, 19, 21, 20) All he's got is 5 years.
23. Wally Schang (14, 19, 20, 22, 21) A much better hitter than most catchers. Not the hitter Bresnahan is, but closer to being a pure catcher.
24. Sam Rice (--, 21, 23, 22) Comparable to Hooper; either he could rank lower or Hooper higher.
25. Gavy Cravath (16, 20, 22, 24, 23) A big offensive peak. Yes, he took unique advantage of his park, but real wins resulted from that. Seriously lacking in bulk unless you also consider his work in Minneapolis.

The cluster of players fighting to get back up to the #25 spot include Leach, Luque, Lindstrom, Maranville, Poles, Taylor, Willis, Welch, Burns, Griffith, and Hack Wilson.
Griffith languishes down here largely because he's not that high on career IP for his times.
Buzz Arlett: I haven't really sorted out what I think of his case yet.
Jim Bottomley: Could rank higher. So also could Fournier and Konetchy.
Babe Herman: Comparable to Manush or Browning.
Jesse Haines: Somwhere below Grimes but above Sam Jones.
Chick Hafey: No reason to put him ahead of Ross Youngs.
Dick Lundy: I need to study him a little more before deciding.
Judy Johnson: You need to hit more than that to be a candidate.

I dropped Dick Lundy off my list when I was typing. Lundy would slot in with Joe Sewell at #35. I like the 9 seasons at 20+ win share seasons. Drawback is only one season over 25 win shares. Lack of peak hurts him as does the lack of a big prime. Consistent at a high level for a decade.
I am thinking about redoing the positional weighting, but that will have to weight probably until after winter quarter.

Another quick ballot, note that there is some significant movement. I have been more systematic about going back and trying to figure out who were the top set of players heading into every major league season and taking that into account in my system. I will be more transparent with my new system next week when I have more time:

(1) Oscar Charleston (new)-- Somewhere between the 1st and 30th best player of All-Time. That's all we need to know to slot him in.

(2) Mickey Cochrane (new)-- I was one of Buck Ewing's biggest fans and see the two as very similar in value. You can certainly make a case that catchers didn't play enough to top the ballot, but I think this is one area where we need to give some weight to conventional wisdom and subjective observations about the importance of a good catcher.

(3) Frankie Frisch (new)-- Dahlen and Davis are very nice comps--easily one of the top 100 players of All-Time.

(4) Bill Foster (new)-- This is a few spots higher than I had Vance and Coveleski, but I think the subjective evidence as to his greatness is stronger and that it is problematic to assume that if a black pitcher was living in an integrated non-racist world that he would have had the same longevity and usage pattern as he did in the Negro Leagues.

(5) Hughie Jennings (2nd)-- Back on top of the holdovers after I empricially validated my conclusion that I would have picked him as the best player in baseball after three different seasons.

(6) Hugh Duffy (6th)-- The more I look, the more I think that he is the best unhonored 19th-century OF. Now that WARP's defensive numbers are more in line with other sources, he shines on their metric almost as much as in WS. A strong candidate to be considered the best player in the game after the 1893 and 1894 seasons, he was among the best handful of players in the game each year over a seven year period. If you like peak and prime at all, hard to see how he doesn't rank just a little above Van Haltren.

(7) George Van Haltren (1st)-- Drops a bit but still has huge career numbers earned in relatively large chunks (25-29 adj WS per season).

(8) Charley Jones (3rd)-- If he put up his WS a decade later, he'd already be in, but the numbers are ever-so-slightly inflated b/c/ of the larger deviations in performance during his era. Never quite the best player in the game.

(9) Cupid Childs (4th)--Nothing new to say.

(10) Dobie Moore (14th)-- I originally had him off ballot, but am convinced by the argument that he bests Beckwith if you give him credit for his army years.

Sisler, Beckley, and Griffith sit right off my ballot. Waddell has never impressed me (for reasons I have long discussed). Leach strikes me as more like a Hooper or Rice than a Van Haltren or Beckley, but the gradations are small and I might change my mind.

Lundy is somewhere between Sewell and Bancroft, which puts him somewhere around 20th on my ballot. The other new guys are non-starters in my system.

Obligatoires:
36. George Van Haltren
40. Joe Sewell
47. Clark Griffith
71. Hughie Jennings
I place a premium on career length, and I don't feel that these four guys played long enough to help their teams as much as the players ranked above them.

1943 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 12 per year adjusted for league quality, or OPS+ over 95 adjusted for defense and timeline and speed. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place.

Easy to vote early this week, as I'll be happy if we honor any of my top 4, and I'm very confident we will.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1-Oscar Charleston {new}
The black Mickey Mantle
2-Mickey Cochrane {new}
As good in his prime as Berra or Bench. Short career keeps from serious ‘greatest catcher ever’ discussion. He doesn’t need much ‘catcher bonus’ to pass Frankie F; Frisch gains an extra 23.8 WARP3, for example, but it takes him 883 more games (almost 6 full seasons) to do it.
3-Bill Foster {new}
Consensus as one of the top NeL pitchers.
4-Frankie Frisch {new}
Not Hornsby or Collins or Lajoie. But sure beats Childs or McPhee or Doyle.

I asked myself if I was developing a bad case of the SNTS (Shiny New Toy Syndrome), but I rather think the reason the 4 new guys grab the first four slots is that we’ve honored all those I wish to honor (except C Griffith), so it’s pretty easy for me to place them at the top.

5-Clark Griffith (1) [6]
Vastly, vastly underrated by conventional stats. But still not as the good as the new guys.

“Hall of very good” starts here…
6-George Van Haltren (3) [7]
Hit. Ran. Played D. Pitched. Long career. Played in strong and under-represented 1890s.
7-John McGraw (4) [34]
I’m a career voter, but Mugsy accomplished more in a few years than most others did in many. RCAP isn’t a perfect tool, but it can’t be THAT far off that McGraw gets no mention from us.
8-John Beckwith (9) [5]
Right now he looks to me like the quality (defense and offense) of Killebrew, with a shorter career and some baggage. Two ballots ago I was ahead of the curve on JB. Now I’m behind. Fine research here has helped his cause.
9-Joe Sewell (5) [4]
He may not have any one stat that defines him, but overall he won lots of ballgames for his team. Not quite Alan Trammell, but beats Dave Concepcion.
10-Larry Doyle (6) [20]
A 2Bman with such a high OWP deserves attention.
11-Rube Waddell (7) [12]
Six time leader in KOs, 3 ERA+ titles. Unearned runs drag him down a bit. We’ve already elected 8 pitchers from his prime – that nudges him down a bit. But his big KOs would have made him a bigger stud in most other eras, and that bumps him back up.
12-Cupid Childs (8) [16]
A fine hitting second sacker indeed, whose glove was okay too. Difficulty of playing a long career as an infielder in the 1890s gives him a few bonus points.
13-Roger Bresnahan (10) [21]
Similar to Chance and McGraw. Great while he played.
14-Tommy Leach (11) [9]
As a third baseman he’s high on my ballot. As an OFer he’s off. He lands here. Looks really similar to Pie Traynor.
15-Pie Traynor (13) [29]
Fine player. Not as good as Heinie Groh. I’m not into buying the ‘old guys’ wisdom hook, line, and sinker, but LOTS of people thought he was a great player, and that gives him a small boost on to my ballot.

off ballot
Frank Chance (14) [45]
More Win Shares per game than Henry Aaron! Highest WS/yr among any ballot-eligible player by a large margin (>2 WS/yr).

Jake Beckley (15) [10]
Somewhere between Doggie Perez and Fred the Crime Dog McGriff. He’ll have a Ruff time getting into the HoM tho.

Judy Johnson {new}
wait your turn, Judy.
Dick Lundy {new}
Ditto. I just haven’t studied him enough to place him confidently. Next ballot, I promise.
Eppa Rixey (off) [3]
115 ERA+ , in front of a good defensive team in the weaker league. Massive amount of career innings doesn’t quite do it.
George Sisler (off) [11]
If only his severe injury had been even one or two years later :(
Mickey Welch
His career doesn’t look much different than Rixey’s, who is also on my ballot bubble.
Hughie Jennings (off) [8]
Great for 5 years. If we had a PEAK Hall of Merit, Hughie would be a shoo-in.
Wally Schang (off) [25]
Another guy begging for a bigger ballot.

Not much time this week, flying to San Antone tomorrow at 6 am, so trying to get this on the thread while i still can.

And the Oscar goes to Hall of Merit for electing the best performance by a Negro League Position Player...

1. Oscar Charleston. I'm not adding anything new here. Probably the best best player in the NgLs unless one of the pitchers was better. And that's not an argument we concern ourselves with unless he were to appear on the ballot with Paige or Williams.

2. Frankie Frisch. A great player for a short time, a good one for a very long time.

3. Mickey Cochrane. Yes, after much tweaking, prodding, pushing, pulling, and LOTS of help from the electorate on helping me smoothe the rough spots in my catcher system, Cochrane looks more like a HOMer, with a peak comparable to Duffy's in terms of catcher-bonus adjusted WS.

4. Geo. Van Haltren. No surprise here, I'm still his pal after all these years. Still did the best job of piling up those career WS of any backlog candidate, still a better peak than the Beckleyites might care to admit.

5. Hugh Duffy. Still the best peak available in the backlog, though Beckwith is probably pushing him. Still enough career to merit a high ballot placement.

6. Bill Foster. Being perhaps the third-best NgL pitcher and best NgL LHP is enough to get on the ballot by itself, but his translations cemented an upper-ballot placement. He now occupies the Stan Coveleski Memorial Endowed Ballot Slot for Pitchers Around 3000 IP with a Very Slick ERA+ and 200 Or So Wins, taking the chair after the short tenure of Dazzy Vance. Coming candidates for the honor may include but not be limited to Bob Lemon and Hal Newhouser.

7. Jose Mendez. As his reputation is preceeded by Foster's, this seems appropriate. Mendez is oft-discussed as being a candidate for third- or fourth-best NgL RHP thanks to those dominant years in the early teens. I'm certain of this much, Foster comes first.

8. Eppa Rixey. Neatly rounding out pitcher's row is Jeptha with a career that could be called Ricean, though, I think he compared more favorably to the other pitchers in his league than did Sam to the outfielders. Perhaps Van Haltrenesque would be a more apt choice of words.

9. John Beckwith. His tide is rising. As more information flows in, I'm more and more confident that he's a HOM talent. This placement may not seem all that high to you all, but he started at 13 with big reservations on my 1940 ballot, slipped to 15 when Rojah and Babe came on the ticket, moved up to 12th last year, and now ascends another three slots, pushing ahead of Burns and Poles. Big hitter, big power, good to great average. Albert Belle is the mental picture I draw, but with a little better glove and a little less likelihood of trying to run kids over on Halloween.

10. George Burns. I still love the peak, and still wish he'd played about three more years. As new and better and better backlog candidates start piling up in the decade to come, Burns will probably see his chances at even seeing my ballot fade away quickly.

11. Spots Poles. Yeah, I had to reconsider the strength of my support for him. Luckily, I'm a man not unwilling to change his mind when reassessment seems appropriate. I didn't vote for Carey, yet I vote for Poles, a similar player. I've thought for a while that Poles's peak was better than Carey's, but I think I overestimated Spots's career totals. I think I've got him in a more appropriate slot now.

12. Edd Roush. Another year, another vote for umpteen CFs. And yet, I can't bring myself to get strongly behind the likes of Doyle, Bresnahan, and Sewell who just don't impress me. I'm not into positional quotas, I'm more into results. Then again, in the coming years, when Cronin, Appling, Vaughan, Herman, Gehringer, and Boudreau come onto the ballot, I'll have lots of IFs to choose from

13. Tommy "Don't call me Terry" Leach. Less peak than Roush, more career than most of the glut.

14. Hughie Jennings. Huge peak, not much career. What can I say that hasn't been said?

15. Dobie Moore. This is the other big move on my ballot. I've promoted Moore and demoted Childs off the ballot after reconsidering each. Being a SS and not a 2B helps.

1) Oscar Charleston—3rd highest CF (so far) behind Cobb & Speaker.2) Frankie Frisch—He comes out barely ahead of Cochrane. They have similar 5-year peaks in WARP3 (FF: 47.6, MC: 46.4) and WS (FF: 135, MC: 142). Frisch wins out due to longevity.3) Mickey Cochrane—Clearly an all-time great catcher. 4) Bill Foster—Widely regarded as the best NeL lefty. I have him slightly above Vance and Coveleski. There is something of a gap between him and Redding, but it’s not huge.5) Dick Redding—2nd best NeL pitcher of the deadball era.6) Ben Taylor— One of the top 3 NeL 1st basemen of all time. I think he is closer to last year’s inductee Bill Terry than perennial contender Jake Beckley. It’s worth noting that Chris Cobb estimated 325.6 WS for Taylor.7) John Beckwith—If ranked as a 3B, he should be #1 among NeLers. It appears that his negative “intangibles” and less than stellar defense have cost him dearly in his historic reputation, but they cannot outweigh his offensive contributions. Marcelle, Dandridge, and Johnson consistently rank above Beckwith in the expert polls, but I am convinced they are greatly overrating 3B defense. 8) Joe Sewell--Evaluating his #s with Win shares and WARP3 produces very different results. His peak can’t match up with Jennings’, but the rest of his career is solid and moves him ahead.9) Pete Browning—The Louisville Slugger drops to #9 after holding down the 6-spot for a few elections. 162 OPS+, .305 EQA (all time), 30.81 WS/162G. 10) Rube Waddell—142 ERA+. 3.77 DERA. 243 PRAA/434PRAR/145WS in 5 best seasons. Only eligible pitcher who has over 400 PRAR in his top 5 seasons. 11) Jose Mendez--Great Cuban pitcher. Not far behind Redding, especially considering his edge with the bat. 12) Hughie Jennings--Nothing new here. He’s all peak, but it’s hard to resist: 53.8/151 in top 5 WARP3/WS seasons. 13) Dobie Moore--Nice combo of hitting and fielding. Untimely end to career hurts, but military playing time helps. Beckwith has moved ahead decisively, but the difference is not very large. 14) Eppa Rixey— The revised BP numbers have Rixey popping up on the end of my ballot. Not much in the way of peak, but tons of IP and a 115 ERA+.15) Bill Monroe--I see him as slightly better than Childs and not far behind Moore.

The second 15
16) Charley Jones—OPS+ of 149. 29.17 WS/162g. .290 EQA. Bump for missed years.
17) Fielder Jones—A+ fielder like Hooper & Carey and significantly better WS/162 at 26.28 puts him ahead of those guys even though they played a bit longer. Modest OPS+ of 111 masks competitive .282 EQA.
18) Urban Shocker—Narrowly ahead of Griffith. Urban has the edge in DERA (3.89 vs. 4.05) and WS/1000IP (84 vs. 81). Translated IPs are close, too.19) Clark Griffith—Increased Translated IP help move him near the bottom of my ballot.
20) Harry Hooper—He’s not all that different from Fielder Jones. He benefits in my system from a strong league/context according to BP’s stats. Both BP and WS show him having a moderate peak, at best, but he played at a decent level for a long time—consistently averaged 20 WS for 15 straight years from 1910 to 1924.21) George Van Haltren—A very good player, I just don’t see him as standing out enough from the crowd to justify enshrinement in the HoM.
22) Spotswood Poles—332 estimated Win Shares.
23) Ed Cicotte
24) Jack Quinn
25) Jimmy Ryan
26) Hugh Duffy
27) Vic Willis
28) Dick Lundy—300 estimated WS. I’m not convinced he should rank higher than Moore. He might deserve to be closer to Monroe than this, though.
29) Bobby Veach30) George Sisler— WARP3 totals (71.8 career) are not as positive as WS (292). The BP revision helps him a bit, but he’s still somewhere amidst the OF glut.

Remaining players in Last Year’s Top 10 who were left off my ballot:33) Tommy Leach—Great defense at two positions is impressive, but the overall numbers just don’t stand out enough for me to find a spot on the ballot for him.65) Jake Beckley—Unimpressive 21.59 WS/162G and 32.8 top 5 WARP3 cannot be overcome by his longevity.

New Players in Top 100
58) William Bell, Sr.—He doesn’t show up on any of the expert rankings. I’d like to see more info on him. I thought the John Donaldson-Nip Winters-Sam Streeter range might be appropriate.
63) Babe Herman—1552 games, .324/.381/.532
75) Buzz Arlett—Brent’s revised MLEs: 2053 games, .310/.380/.530. I am not comfortable ranking him higher than this right now, though his MLEs are eerily similar to Babe’s actuals. At the same time, I could see how someone would have him on their ballot.
88) Judy Johnson—At this point I like Ghost Marcelle (#86) better.

Given the controversy about last year’s results, I’m paying special attention to who I place in the 11-15 slots. Of course, the top of the ballot’s a breeze.

1943 Ballot1) Oscar McKinley Charleston
Two years ago, I placed in the #1 slot a player who has a legitimate claim to be the greatest player in the history of the game. I’m privileged to do it again.2) Gordon Stanley Cochrane – “Mickey”
Redefining the role of catcher. None of those Bresnahan-Schang qualms here.3) Frank Francis Frisch – “The Fordham Flash”
I’m amused how many people are mentioning his future career on the Veterans’ Committee. I can’t hold it against him when he racked up such an impressive career.4) George Harold Sisler – “Gorgeous George”
He seems like he should be all peak, but he’s still a right-decent ballplayer when you look at his non-prime years. I like the balance.5) Burleigh Arland Grimes – “Ol’ Stubblebeard”
I seem to be Burleigh’s best friend, so I went back and looked at the numbers again. And I’m still his best friend. Durable career, a ton of black and gray ink…I’m hard-pressed to see the problem. 6) Edgar Charles Rice – “Sam”
7) Jacob Peter Beckley – “Eagle Eye”
A pair of long, flourish-free careers. The HOF Standards and Monitor stats are useful in tracking the difference between a merely long career, and one that measures up over the long run. Rice does exceptionally well here, but Beckley’s pretty good, too. 8) Joseph Wheeler Sewell
Consistently the top shortstop in the AL, with five Top 10 finishes in Win Shares. Can somebody confirm the pronunciation of his name? Is it SOO-ull or SEE-well?9) Hugh Duffy
It’s hard to believe that he once ranked as high as 5th in the voting. When calculating prime vs. career, Duffy’s actually a lot more balanced than I expected. Prime is less than half of career. That was a surprise.10) William Hendrick Foster – “Willie”
A difficult candidate to place. I eventually settled here. By all accounts a better Negro League candidate than Redding. Some say he’s similar to Vance – and this is about where I had Vance.11) Carl William Mays
After Burleigh and Bill, there’s a real mollybang of great-but-not-outstanding pitchers. Carl is still benefiting by favorable analyses from James Vail and Bill James, as well as an enviable peak. Not a lot of love for Carl, though. And I gather that’s never been Carl’s strong suit.12) John Beckwith
I spent a lot of time looking over the Cobb projections and the attendant discussion. I have a sneaking suspicion that what I don’t like about Albert Belle is what I don’t like about Beckwith. But right now, the numbers justify inclusion on my ballot, so I’m moving him up.13) Edd J Roush
Nice all-around numbers, and several MVP-type seasons. In my re-evaluation of the bottom of the ballot, he benefits.14) Eppa Rixey – “Jephtha”
Whenever he looks like he’s about to fall off my ballot, I pull him back up. Which probably means I’m underrating him. I think I’m hung up on the winning percentage. But I also stump for Blyleven, so I’m not sure what my problem is.15) Thomas William Leach – “The Wee”
Both Leach and Larry Doyle dropped in my revamp. I’m giving Tommy the edge on a greater career.

Other Top 10 FinishersHugh Ambrose Jennings – “Ee-Yah”
Hack Wilson has a similar career arc, with a better career, and he’s not here. Basically, the peak is outstanding, but not so much so that it overshadows the fact that the peak is the entire career. Five-year prime is over 70% of career. Ouch.Clark Calvin Griffith
What can I say: I’ve got six pitchers ahead of him. His is an interesting mix, but the overall picture is not outstanding one way or the other.George Edward Martin Van Haltren
I respect the Win Shares, but there are too many guys more worthy of a vote. He’s nearly interchangable with Jimmy Ryan. He’s good, but it’s not enough.

1. Oscar Charleston - This year's shiny new toy. Clearly the only reason he is here. Okay, maybe not. #4, IIRC, on Bill James all-time list. Not sure who the top 3 are exactly, since I dont really use the BJ list, but none of them are on this ballot. And no one who is close is either. Good enough for me.

2. Frankie Frisch - Another shiny new toy. I refuse to hold his future HoF influence against him. I consider him a "no-brainer"

3. Mickey Cochrane - Probably the best catcher we have seen so far. Not a "no-brainer" like Frisch, but I dont understand those who have him low. Im primarily a career voter, and the career value is there for me. Laps the field almost as much as Frisch laps him. But much less than Charleston laps Frisch.

4-12 are above my "in" line this year:
4. Joe Sewell - Best of the rest. Hopefully he slides in the first year there is only 1 obvious candidate.

5. Lave Cross - At some point in the next 30 "years" I am going to have to make the "Case for Cross". Nothing is going to convince peak votes though, especially if you think a peak must be consecutive.

6. Jake Beckley - The definition of a career only guy.

7. Eppa Rixey - Best pitcher on the ballot. I recently saw a rerun of a c-span interview with Potter Stewart (I think). When he wrote the decision on the Flood case, he originally left Rixey out of his baseball history section. One of the other justices made him add him in.

At the moment at which he cast his ballot, Rob Wood had on his ballot the top 11 overall vote getters, in something rather close to the order of their votes. That's a not-easily-duplicated act of agreement, and seems likely to give Rob a consensus score 2 to 4 points above anyone else's.

Lundy #19, Babe Herman #36.
Bottomley, Hafey, and Haines had nice careers, but are nowhere near getting on the ballot.
Judy Johnson, based on Chris Cobb’s analysis is off ballot somewhere in the 40-50 range.

1)Oscar Charleston--Easy choice.
2)Mickey Cochrane--If you don’t have him in the top 5, it's hard to see how any reasonable number of catchers will be in your HoM.
3)Sewell--109 OPS+, reasonably long career, good shortstop (A- Win Shares). Yes, I am allowing for his switch to 3B at the end of his career.
4)Frisch--Contemporaries at 2B are good hitters (e.g. Hornsby, Gehringer, Lazzeri, Grantham, Bishop, Myer, Herman), so he doesn’t stand out as much as I expected.
5)Schang--His rate stats would put him in the HoM, but a look at each individual year isn’t impressive. Still, a hitting catcher with his career length isn’t common...Bill James rates him a C+ fielder in Win Shares, but says he was a good catcher in the NHBA. Stands out from the extreme lack of catching candidates recently.
6)Doyle— His hitting is legitimately outstanding, he played 2nd base, and a C+ defender by Win Shares. 126 career OPS+, compare to contemporary George Cutshaw, who was a regular 2B for 11 years with an OPS+ of 86. #19 all time in innings at 2B. Regularly in the 2B defensive Win Shares leaders, WS Gold Glove in 1917. Top 10 in Win Shares 1909-12, 1915.
7)Beckwith-- Was Beckwith, in his prime, was the best hitter in the Negro Leagues? He played a considerable amount at the difficult end of the defensive spectrum. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on his “unusual circumstances”. His selection as manager indicates to me that his intangibles weren’t all negative. Could be higher. I might regret this, but he made my PHoM in 1940 over Coveleski and Faber.
8)Beckley— Behind the big 3, much better than other dead-ball 1B. Win Shares best fielder at 1B in 1893, 1895, 1899, and 1900. Add in 2930 hits, with power and walks. No peak but a lot of consistent production, we’re not talking about Ed Kranepool here.
9)Rixey—Early Wynn will be the next pitcher with more IP, his W/L percentage isn’t high because he didn’t get a lot of support. ERA+ is very good at 115 for such a long career.
10)Waddell—Waddell has a run of 7 years (1902-1908) in which he was blowing people away, in three of those years with an ERA+ over 165. A seven year peak for a pitcher is much more rare than a seven year peak for a hitter, I give the short peak pitchers a lot more credit than the short peak hitters.
11)Bill Foster--consensus seems to have him around Coveleski/Faber/Rixey, I’ll yield to those who know more than I. Was #3 on 1943 prelim.
12)Cravath— Great peak, great high minor league play.
13)Bill Monroe—Riley’s Biographical Encylopedia likes him a lot.
14)Bancroft--Better than I thought.
15)Bresnahan--Best hitting year was as a CF, not a C, so he’s not quite as impressive as I thought at first glance.

Griffith--This one hurts, I was an original Griffith booster. In my PHoM but off the ballot.Hughie Jennings—If he played SS his whole (short) career, I’d be listening. He played a lot of 1B, though. His peak is impressive but it’s just not enough career.Sisler--I don’t see his case being very strong. His peak was not long enough to merit election, though he certainly was a great hitter for a few years. Leach--Great fielder at both 3B and CF. Historically a unique player, if only he hit a little better. Or had stayed at 3B.Van Haltren--Good player, part of the OF glut with Ryan and Duffy.

1. Mickey Cochrane Best ML catcher every year 1929-1933, and enough career value to make him the best catcher to date.

2. Oscar Charleston High average, power hitting outfielder with speed. Generally considered one of the top 5 NeLers of all time. More documented career hits than any other player listed in Holway's book.

3. Wally Schang Dominant catcher 1913-1920; good for many years afterwards. 117 ERA+ in 1842 games would not be too shabby for an outfielder. Such performance in a catcher from this era makes his non-election to Cooperstown a puzzle. Though my ballot appears catcher heavy, I have only put 4 catchers on my ballot in the 33 years I have been voting for the HoM, and only 3 have made my PHoM, the same number of catchers that Cooperstown has inducted from the 1900-1930 period.

4. Joe Sewell Well qualified by comprehensive sabermetric measures: career 88.5 WARP3 is 5th among eligibles, behind only Frisch, Cochrane, Maranville, and Beckley, (should be behind only Frisch and Cochrane, but the WARP3 replacement level is set too low.) Boosted above Frisch by consistent dominance of position in his prime: one of three best major leaguers at his position every year 1921-1929.

5. Frankie Frisch More career than Sewell; less dominance. I also think that the NL was a little weaker than the AL during the 1920s-1930s, although with less of a gap than during most of the 1900s-1910s.

6. Roger Bresnahan One of top catchers/centerfielders most years 1903-1912.

7. Eppa Rixey Good enough for a long enough time to make him the next (final?) 1920s "career" pitcher choice. Very telling that he does well in my system even though I discount NL performance.

8. Pie Traynor Consistently among the best 3B good 3B 1923-1933 and, overall, one of the best position players of this time. Seems to fall into a blind spot of orthodox sabermetrics; I hope to see some kind of rehabilitation in the future.

9. Sam Rice If we've inducted Wheat, than why not Rice? Rice, Hooper, and Beckely are position player career choices who make the ballot under the philosophy that players who rise above average for long enough can deserve the HoM even if they were never dominant players. Rice's and Beckley's career totals need no explanation. Hooper looks superficially much worse, but was playing in a strong league during the deadball era, and ends up eerily similar to Rice in my system.

10. Jose Mendez Trusting that his dominant Cuban years and his total run average title in his fulltime NeL season indicate greatness.

11. Harry Hooper

12. George "Rube" Waddell Off the charts as a strikeout pitcher for his time. His multiple ERA+ titles in strong leagues convince me of his greatness. Agnostic on whether his unearned runs and W/L record indicate anything more than random bad luck.

13. Jake Beckley

14. Ray Schalk Not a HoMer, but should be noted as one of the historically great defensive players, and his durability should also be recognized. By rate stats, good for a catcher but not outstanding.

15. Urban Shocker My system likes the players who are consistently good.

Ou sont-ils?

John Beckwith. He's just not close to making it right now in my system. I have no doubt that he could hit, but some subtle combination of consistency and career length must be hurting him. Maybe he's like Dick Allen- I suspect that my system will not be kind to Allen either. On the other hand, power-hitting players in defensive positions are rare. An enigma.

Clark Griffith, George Van Haltren, and Hughie Jennings are very good 1890s players who have all made my ballot in the past, but I timeline more (or as I would put it, I reverse-timeline less) than the consensus, so they may never make my ballot again. They would all be reasonable additions to the HoM.

George Sisler had the talent, but had bad luck. Tweaking my system to let him in would let too many others in.

I've never been a big fan of Tommy Leach for the HoM. A lot of his career totals are padding: from the time he became a full-time CF to the end of his career, 1909 to 1918, he had only a 104 OPS+ in 925 games, in the weak deadball NL.

This ballot will be shortened this week but since I think it is pretty clear who goes in i am nto sure I need my usual long explanations.

1. Oscar Charleston - He and Gibson are the two best Negro leaguers ever. I would put him just about even with Mickey Mantle.

2. Mickey Cochrane - he had a great peak and 11 seasons where he was a very good player. Best catcher we have had to decide on and one of the top 5 all-time

3. Franie Frisch - not as good as Hornsby, but who was? Well, Collins and Morgan, but you get the point. Good hitter, good fielder, nice peak, decent career. Something for everyone.

4. Hughie Jennings - His peak is probably still the second best of all Major League eligibles, even with this big group of newbies.

5. Bil Foster - He may have been better than Hughie. However, I have him as good as Vance and Vance would be slotted here had he not hit the lottery in 1942.

6. Cupid Childs - Nice peak and decent career for an 1890's MI. He and Jennings would go a long way toward getting us up to speed on the 1890's candidates.

7. Clark Griffith - Has moved above Rixey this week. I guess I am test driving him up here.

8. Eppa Rixey - I like career oriented pitchers more than career oriented players. Rixey pitched a ton of innings and he pitched them pretty well.

9. Hugh Duffy - Best of the 1890's outfielders that are left. If you schedule adjust his WS, his peak is nearly awesome.

10. Dick Redding - 2nd best NeL pitcher of the dead ball era. A question/theory: After the fall of the color barrier there werent' as many good colored pitchers as there were good colored position players. So could this say anything about the Negro Leagues? I am not saying that Black people in general cant' pitch, just that they weren't steered toward pitching or maybe were steered toward being position players. Something to chew on.

11. Rube Waddell - Lot's of K's, great ERA+. I believe his great DIPS ERA balances out the large amount of unearned runs.

12. Jose Mendez - Career arc much like Waddell without the great ERA+.

13. George Van Haltren - Best of the career candidates. Respectable peak when you adjust it for the shorter schedules of the 1890's as well.

14. Dobie Moore - The Black Jennings. Except that where Jennings was at least playing ball after his peak, Moore was not.

15. John Beckwith - I am warming up to him right. I see him like Dick Allen or Albert Belle except that he played 3B. Should probably be higher.

George Sisler - Currently satnds at 16. Someone had to be moved off the ballot for all the new guys. He will most likely be back on soon.

Tommy Leach - I hve been voting for him every year since 1935, he even got as high as #7. I have now come to my senses. He looks great when compared to other 3B in WS, but he doesn't stand out much in VORP. He played more games in CF than 3B and WS loves CFers. So he gest downgraded, may make my ballot again one day.

Mickey Welch - Low ERA+. The only reason he has 300 wins is because he played in the 1880's instead of the 1920's or later.

Joe Sewell - Not a fan. He looks a lot like Bancroft, Tinker, and Long. Granted he was better than them but not enough to be above teh in/out line.

Jake Beckley - He was never great, I think you need to be great to be a HOMer.

Newbies

Dick Lundy - Way too much like Sewell. I have him better than Sewell as I think he may have been a better hitter than some of our numbers. Either way, I dont' know how anyone can like one of these guys and not have the other high as well.

Our last ballot has locked in our 1890s shortage for a while. Nice to see lots of new candidates for most of the new few years - changing of the guard and all.

1. OSCAR CHARLESTON - Cobb, Ruth, Speaker, Mantle, DiMaggio. Whichever one is the best comp, the spot is his. Sweet combo of speed, power, and length of career.
2. MICKEY COCHRANE - The battle between he and Frisch is a very good one. Mickey had a pair of nervous breakdowns in 1936, but he was looking good as new in '37 - without the beanball, he'd have had some more great stuff left in him. Career OPS+ of 128 is amazing for a C.

3. FRANKIE FRISCH - Only four OPS+ seasons over 120, but this 2B-3B played forever. Needed to be a good fielder to be a HOMer, though, and every reason to believe he was a great one.
4. BILL FOSTER - Better than half-brother, Rube, but I'm afraid he won't get the traditional 'shiny new toy' bump. Bittersweet to read this: Detroit slugger Charlie Gehringer told Foster after a 1929 game involving the two, "If I could paint you white I could get $150,000 for you right now."
5. CLARK GRIFFITH - His era clearly is underrepresented on the hill AND it was a time of rough competition, a double bonus which should boost him. It's remarkable how much better his W-L was than the teams he pitched for.
6. EPPA RIXEY - Moves ahead of some colleagues this year as I review the WW I bonus. If only he had one huge year. Pretty baffled that Faber got in immediately while Rixey may never make it.
7. GEORGE SISLER - I never realized before this project the extent of the 'two Sislers' career. But he also matches some HOMer's peaks while providing a significant added portion of a career. Not clear on some of the anti-Sisler sentiment; overrated by the average fan, but a great half-career in particular.
8. HUGHIE JENNINGS - One solid season short of an "elect me" slot, probably forever, on my ballot. Enough peak for me to ask for not so much more, yet he supplies almost nothing else - and even plays so many games at 1B rather than SS.
9. TOMMY LEACH - The half-career at 3B and his overall defensive skills don't get enough credit; we may have to be careful in general not to underrate the 'hybrids.'
10. CUPID CHILDS - Jumps up five slots this year. The majors' best 2B, or nearly so, for most of his career is something that we just don't see on this ballot. But I can't say I'm sure he belongs.
11. JOHN BECKWITH - His thread has boosted him onto my ballot, but I'm still not all the way sold on him. A great player for a time and glad to see him get some deserved props, though.
12. MICKEY WELCH - Slips a few slots again this year. If you look at the amount of lopsided scores AND compare them to the fewer and less lopsided losses by Keefe in yest's post in the Welch thread, the 'pitching in a pinch' circumstancial evidence is there. Went 61-34 vs HOMer pitching opponents.
13. JAKE BECKLEY - Top 10 in RBIs TWELVE times. How many HOMers did that? I'm finally convinced that he really wasn't quite as good as Keeler after all, but he can still grab a ballot spot in this bunch.
14. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Not quite Faber, and thus not quite Rixey, either. Barely held onto my ballot in a tough year.
15. GEORGE VAN HALTREN - Seems very similar to Beckley, only he's an OF and not a 1B. Pitching helps, not quite enough. Still, I'm softening a little - back on my ballot for a second straight year.

JUST MISSED
JOE SEWELL - Slugged exactly the league average in his career, split between SS and 3B. That's good, but not real exciting. We've already elected a lot of SSs, let's see if he measures up to a new crop of them.
DICK LUNDY - He really does present a problem for Sewell, doesn't he? I think Sewell needed to be a slightly better fielder and Lundy needs a tiny bit more evidence.
DICK REDDING - Pitching pool getting deep, but he may bounce back onto my ballot.
PETE BROWNING - Misses for the first time in many years. Spectacularly good hitter, and his 1890 PL season says he could have done it in any league, any time.
LARRY DOYLE - Misses after two yrs on ballot; needs to outmaneuver Childs for a slot. Awesome hitting stats for a 2B; with a little longer career and decent fielding, he'd be a HOMer.
JOSE MENDEZ - Outside chance he had enough peak to be a legit HOMer, but part of me suspects he didn't quite do it for long enough.
RUBE WADDELL - Not a HOMer; the 'anti-Welch' was Mark Fidrych with a longer but not-long-enough career. Strikeouts are an indicator of ability, not production.
PIE TRAYNOR - Reached 120 OPS+ only twice. Long career for a 3B, but tough competition for INF slots right now. Probably better than the 29th slot he occupies.

WARP3 is the main tool. Also consider OPS+, ERA+, and the various playing time measures. Win Shares is ancillary, there are some weird things going on there, particularly with defense.

PHOM are the top two guys, Chareston and Frisch. Mickey will make it next week, don't worry. :)

As for newbies not on my ballot of note, Lundy is in the 25 range. Solid career, but peakless. Johnson is probably in the 40-50 range, I didn't bother to exactly slot him. The non-obvious major leaguers are not even in the galaxy of my ballot.

1. Oscar Charleston (1943) - Duh. I think a touch better than Mantle because he held the superstar hitting a bit longer. That seems like the right comp to me though. Not Willie Mays, Mays held the defense much longer. "Not Willie Mays" isn't exactly an insult, though.

3. Mickey Cochrane - Not bad behind Frisch with the catcher bonus, but Frisch has the slightly better un-bonused peak, and a much better career. Even the catcher bonus doesn't catch it up all the way. Stil, not going to have trouble getting in.

4. Bill Foster - Which did he prefer to go by, Bill or Willie? Anyway, I think the Vance/Coveleski arguments are about right. The top two NL pitchers, Paige and Williams, are in the absolute inner circle guys, like Alexander and Johnson. Foster is the top of the next tier, the guys who aren't inner circle, but get in easily. Like...well...Vance and Coveleski. Feeling here is his peak/prime was a little longer than theirs, too.

5. Joe Sewell (3) - Sewell is a big winner in my most recent reconsideration. Peak is not that high, but career is basically all prime. Good mix of offense and defense.

6. Hughie Jennings (1908) (4) - The argument I used for Caruthers all those years works even better for Hughie. Crammed so much value into a short career that he's more valuable than guys with productive careers twice or three times as long.

7. José Méndez (1939) (5) - Very similar to Waddell pitching-wise. His hitting as a pitcher moves him to one spot above him, but he doesn't get credit in my system for his offensive rebirth (I don't think he'd have had it in the big leagues). In my opinion, the single most underrated player by the electorate. Look at the players in the Cuban Leagues when he was dominating. HOMers and HOM candidates all over the place.

8. Rube Waddell (6) - Love the Ks, and his RA+ is very good (though obviously not as good as his ERA+, which is inflated). The intangibles argument holds no weight with me.

9. John Beckwith (7) - I'm sold enough to move him up above Moore. Longer prime, peak not as great, but very good. Not going higher than this relative position on the ballot though, his defense seems to have been horrible, and I suspect he'd have ended up in a less stressful (and less WS-bountiful) position in the majors.

10. Clark Griffith (8) - Another big winners in WARP3 changes, as well as the look back at the first 3 decades of the majors. We need more 1890s players. Griffith and Jennings are the two we should be looking at.

11. Dick Redding (11) - Of similar value to Méndez, but below him because of Mendez's bat, and Redding is a touch lighter on the peak. Moved back up, as a winner of my NL reconsideration, along with Ben Taylor, who will make my ballot someday long in the future. Loser was Lundy, who moved down even farther.

12. Dobie Moore (9) - Really, anyone who has Jennings in their top 5 should have Moore somewhere on the ballot. I understand those who have neither, but Moore, while not Jennings, is close enough that there should never be more than 10 or so spots separating them. Probably a little more career than Jennings, a little less peak. Awesome hitting and defense from everything I've seen.

13. Lave Cross (10) - Another winners in the look back, and a career/prime guy who does well. Having played catcher helps him a lot, as well. For those looking for 3B/C, this is an overlooked guy.

14. Bobby Veach (1939) (12) - Loser in the WARP3 changes. Still the best of the long-time OF glut, but after having been OF heavy for so long, I'm finally starting to back off.

15. Bill Monroe (13) - Was a hell of a hitter in the early days of the organized Negro Leagues, when he was already up in age. Could be vastly underrating him, don't think I'm overrating him. I'd rather have him than Grant.

PHOMers not on my ballot (taken from past ballots and past systems, that I somewhat regret now):

32. Jimmy Ryan (1930)
42. Mike Griffin (1932)
43. Hugh Duffy (1931)

Top 10 Returners not on my ballot

Rixey - Light on peak, and in the weak league, too. I'm with KJOK on the issue of season-to-season replacement. Pretending that a if Rixey had played 3 less averagish seasons, his teams would have used some AAA dud is just silly. Not that the averagish seasons don't have value, but using them as the primary reason for election?

Van Haltren - Way down on my ballot. I'd much prefer Jimmy Ryan, who also is not on my ballot. Also would prefer Poles, Duffy, Griffin. And of course Bobby Veach, who I think was the best of all these guys. And that's just the outfielders.

Leach - I want to like him. I really do. I just can't. Not enough offense, too much center field.

Beckley - No peak. Never any better than an above average player. Would be a terrible choice for election.

Sisler - A winner in my most recent reconsideration. Just not enough of one. Peak, except for the one monster year, wasn't as great as people seem to think. Could make my ballot in the long run, though.

1 (-)Mickey Cochrane--Best catcher to date. Long enough career to have more career WARP than anyone on the ballot except for Frisch.

2 (-) Oscar Charleston--I see him as the "black Tris Speaker". Maybe a touch better. Clearly a first ballot guy.

3 (-)Frankie Frisch--Would have been a fun player to watch. Best career on the board, peak is a bit lacking, but definitely strong enough to get him in.

4 (-)Willie Foster--Best Negro pitcher? Maybe not, but very likely in the top 2-3. Puts him here for now. Luckily, we have a little time to sort him out.

5 (-)Judy Johnson--It appears that this will be the highest vote Johnson gets. My practice with the Negro Leaguers is to place a guy initially based on reputation, and then adjust in later years if warranted (see Beckwith below). Johnson will probably drop next year.

6 (4)George Sisler--Not quite as dominant as I had thought, but that peak stacks relatively high.

7 (5)Rube Waddell--In a 9 year stretch from 1900 to 1908, Waddell led the league in K/IP 8 times. Finished 2nd the other time. New WARP scores boost his peak to a near Jennings level. High black ink totals. In other words--dominant.

8 (3)Joe Sewell--Could conceivably be anywhere from 4th to 10th.

9 (-)John Beckwith--Due to defensive concerns, I'd have a hard time putting him above Sewell. However, a reconsideration of him means he'll probably be on the ballot for awhile.

12 (7)Burleigh Grimes--Obviously, not as peak-heavy as some of the others, and there were certainly some below-average seasons thrown in here, but I think that doesn't hurt a pitcher as much as it does a hitter.

13 (8)Urban Shocker--More of a career vote than anything, since his peak can't compare with Cicotte or Waddell, Shocker was still very good for a pretty long time.

14 (12)George J Burns--Burns is rising to the top of the OF glut based on a better peak.

15 (13)Carl Mays--Still pretty iffy on him, and I could be convinced that 6 pitchers on this ballot is too much.

Dropping out: Bobby Veach, Del Pratt, Roger Bresnahan, Duke Farrell

Top 10 omissions:
Hughie Jennings, Clark Griffith, and Tommy Leach are all in my 16-25 group, and could easily get back on in future years. It's a tough ballot this year.
Jake Beckley, George VanHaltren, and Eppa Rixey are not anywhere near my ballot, and all suffer from peak issues. It will take a massive earthquake that swallows 20-40 candidates before any of these three see any more "ballot time". That or another heavy WARP shakeup.

1943 Ballot
1.Oscar Charleston – Elected PHOM in 1943.
2.Mickey Cochrane – Elected PHOM in 1943.
3.Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1926.
4.Frankie Frisch – Long consistent career.
5.Pete Browning – 61% of value is prime, 89% of value is above average. Elected PHOM in 1929
6.John Beckwith – Very good hitter. New info on him moves him high on my ballot. Futuer PHOMer.
7.Cupid Childs – Good hitter. Not as good defensively as McPhee. 84% of career above average. Elected PHOM in 1938
8.Hughie Jennings – 77% of value is prime alone. Unfortunately, that’s all he’s got. Still that’s enough to get him this high. Re-evaluated 1890’s infielders since they seemed to get beat up during their playing days. Elected PHOM in 1938
9.Eppa Rixey – Like his consistent above-averageness over Faber’s brief peak. Elected PHOM in 1940
10.Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. Moves up when compared to Faber and Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1942
11.Bill Foster – 3rd or 4th best Negro league pitcher.
12.Dobie Moore – Impressive peak. Giving him more credit for army years. 10+ year prime at important position.
13.Hugh Duffy – 82% of career is above-average. Great defense
14.Bill Monroe – Very good second baseman, but I can’t seem to rate him over Childs. Re-evaluation moves him up. Becoming more and more convinced about him.
15.Edd Roush – Majorly underestimated him. Very good centerfielder.

New candidatesDick Lundy - would probably have made my ballot about 10 years ago. Not on it now. Better than Sewell.Judy Johnson - Not a bad player. Better in my mind than Marcelle. In the Rabbit Maranville vicinity.

Required ExplanationsTommy Leach – Good peak and decent career. Just misses my ballot.Clark Griffith –Won lots of games with bad teams. Always seems tough to me to get a handle on Griffith (and Waddell for that matter)George Van Haltren – I tend to really like steady careers like Van Haltren, Griffin, Beckley, but just can’t see him jumping over anyone on my ballot. Falling deeper into the CF glut.Jake Beckley - Lower peak than Van Haltren, falls out of my top 50. Never on my ballot and probably never will be.

My #3 and #13 were elected. Older exhibits are suppressed. A flood of greats in 1943, led by Charleston and Cochrane, three other top NeLers, plus Frisch and three of his cronies. More greats follow in 1944 with Gehrig, Goslin, Ferrell and Cuyler. 1945 is a backlog year.

1)Oscar Charleston – So who is the second greatest player named Oscar? Probably Gamble, a prominent player on my APBA team, the Demons, after his 1065 OPS in 1979.

2)Mickey Cochrane – Generally acclaimed as one of the top 100 players all-time.

3)Frankie Frisch – Likely no longer among the top 100 players all-time. Maybe not one of the top ten secondbasemen. Still a good ways above the backlog.

4)George Van Haltren (1,3,2) - Pennants Added study shows him well. The 1932 election may have been his last, best shot at induction. For a while, anyway. Now in his 34th year eligible. As to why he rates above Ryan: he excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation; he had higher SB totals (35-40 vs. 25-30 per year in their primes), which I believe was more significant pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most runs scored 1891-1900:1—1321 B. Hamilton2—1215 G. Van Haltren

6)Bill Foster – I’ve seen nothing to indicate he is not worthy of his hall of fame status. Not sure he was any better than Vance or Faber, so he starts here.

7)Tommy Leach (4,5,4) – With 3B lagging in HoMers, it’s good to see him getting more attention. Longevity, defense and speed rate him above Groh. Versatility a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have also handled CF. Question of league quality knocks him back a couple pegs, otherwise really close to Wallace. Had a better peak than Bobby, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke).

10)George Sisler (7,9,7) – Not to harp on this, but the problem with Terry’s election is that nearly every system or ranking I see has Sisler slightly higher. This may eventually take care of itself, but not for several decades. In the mean time, Terry looks like an accident of timing. I think George is still among the top 220 players in history, which is clearly HoMer territory. This is probably not the case for Beckley. OPS+ is only half the story: excellent runner (4 SB crowns), great rep as a fielder, great peak, long career (+9000 PA). Does WARP penalize him for the high quality of firstbasemen in his era? Firstbasemen with 2400+ hits through 1980:

12)Roger Bresnahan (10,11,10) – Versatility is a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Lacking Bennett’s durability and longevity. Defense only C+. Catchers with highest OPS+, 1876-1930 (minimum 3500 PA):1—130 B. Ewing2—126 R. Bresnahan3—118 C. Bennett
4—117 J. Clements
4—117 W. Schang
6—101 D. McGuire
7—100 J. Kling
8—99 D. Farrell

13)Wally Schang (9,10,9) – A bit more sure about this ranking. Catcher bonus puts him here for now.

14)Hughie Jennings (11,12,11) – Does four years of ARod plus eight years of Ivan DeJesus equal a HoMer? Maybe. Bill James thinks highly of him, he’s #18 at SS in the NBJHBA. I think I’m getting a bit more peak-friendly. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900, a period lagging in HoM representation. I’m still struggling with how to balance an awesome peak with an abbreviated career. I tried to find a retired player from the past 50 years with a similar career path, but there doesn’t seem to be one. Is there any good evidence that Jennings’ defense wasn’t as brilliant as WS makes it out to be?
15)Hugh Duffy (12,14,--) – He kinda fell off my radar for awhile, until I realized he shouldn’t be very far behind Ryan. Peak puts him over Hooper, but he didn’t have a long career (12.5 yrs) for a corner OF. A WHOLE lot was context. Hit 82 of his 106 career HRs at home.

Grimes and Childs tumble off the ballot.

Joe Sewell – A few spots off the ballot. Perhaps the best shortstop during a down time at the position. I easily prefer Jennings. Maybe Lundy, too. The next generation of shortstops blows him away (Cronin, Wells, Vaughan, Appling). Only 13 years as a regular, 8 at SS (1 more year than Jennings). OPS+ of 120 in just one season.

John Beckwith – I guess I have to address him now, after he benefited greatly from the Rube Foster Syndrome, i.e., “sudden support in a weak year for the guy who might have been great rather than the guys I’m “sure” were not.” I am not able to reconcile the general disregard of his quality with the translations of his stats being generated here. A small error makes a huge difference. On a ballot as tight as 1942, there is not much difference between an elect-me spot and off-ballot, between 23 points and zero points. Until we have a reliable Negro leagues encyclopedia, we’re likely to be making qualitative mistakes with some of them. Lacking a procedure for periodic recall elections, I will continue to employ a healthy skepticism.

Jake Beckley is off as I question the logic of equal positional representation. I see nothing wrong with saying that few of the best players in his day were first basemen, that the talent tended to congregate around shortstop. Being the best of a weak group does not accrue merit to a player, in my analysis. We’re looking for the best ballplayers, regardless of position.

1. (new) Oscar Charleston. Great player about whom I have nothing to add.

2. (new) Mickey Cochrane.
3. (new) Frankie Frisch.
I’ve got Cochrane above Frisch because I think a catcher performing at Cochrane’s level is more valuable than a second baseman performing at Frisch’s. Frisch, though, was an outstanding player who maintained a high level of performance (20+ WS, 7.5+ WARP1) for a long time. Cochrane was a better hitter who was about the best catcher in the AL for close to a decade; both men were outstanding fielders.

4. (1) George Van Haltren. His career Win Shares are very similar to Frisch’s without quite as high a peak—though he does have more peak than the other long career guys. Adjust his career to 162 game seasons he has around 400 career WS with 3 seasons above 30, 6 more above 25, and an average of 28 per season. Plus almost 700 innings of OK pitching, for which I do give him credit.

5. (2) Clark Griffith. I worry I’m overrating Griffith, but I see him as having a better peak than Rixey, more career than Waddell, and I haven’t quite come to grips with Foster yet. His .620 career win pct. for some pretty mediocre Chicago teams is impressive--as are his 121 ERA+ and 1895-1901 peak.

6. (new) Willie Foster. I think this is a very conservative ranking. His ML estimates aren’t what I would have thought they would be, but he was considered the greatest left handed pitcher in the Negro Leagues and won 70% of his games with some impressive black/gray ink estimates. I can see moving him up next week as he clearly deserves a spot in the HoM.

7. (3) Hugh Duffy. Looking at his Win Shares he looks like the best of the high peak, 8000 plate appearance, 10-12 quality year outfielders. Impressive peak/prime numbers over 3, 5, 7, 10 years (incl. 8 seasons over 25 adjWS/8.9 WARP), good black and gray ink, a+ CF/OF defense, and an MVP caliber year (1894). Rapid decline around age 33, but enough career (336 adjWS) to merit serious consideration.

8. (8) John Beckwith. I want to move him up my ballot as I am less concerned about those “negative intangibles,” and more convinced he was a great hitter who could also play some SS and 3B.

9. (4) Larry Doyle. Higher career OPS+ (126) than all but a handful of 2B, including Frisch. Consistently in NL top 10 in HRs and slugging pct. Also captained World Series teams and won an MVP award. 8 time STATS NL all-star. I assume John McGraw would not have played him at 2B if his fielding was not adequate for the position. Above Childs on my ballot because he has a longer career with only slightly less peak and I am not significantly discounting the NL during his era.

10. (5) Eppa Rixey. Throw out the years he was fighting in WWI and you have a stretch between 1916 and 1928 when he was averaging 275 innings and 21 WS per season with an ERA+ no lower than 109 (but for 1920) and as high as 143. ERA+ of 115 in 4500 innings tells me he should be on the ballot someplace.

11. (6) Edd Roush. Very similar to Hugh Duffy. Arguably the best player in the NL during his peak (1917-1920.) A difficult player for me to get a real handle on for some reason.

12. (7) Cupid Childs. My ballot seems second baseman heavy this week. Excellent peak and a relatively short career, though I’m willing to make some allowance for era on this. Best 2B of the 1890s before Lajoie arrives. 3, 5, 7 year aWS and WARP not quite up to Jennings, but 20% more plate appearances than Hughie.

13. (10) Dobie Moore. Given conservative credit for his 7 years in the army, his career begins to look long enough HoM worthy to me and moves him just ahead of Jennings on my ballot, though Hughie’s peak was perhaps slightly higher.

14. (12) Rube Waddell. Lots of strikeouts, but also Top 10 in fewest hits per 9 innings for 8 years, shutouts for 9 years. Career ERA+ of 134, DERA of 3.77. Would be higher but for concerns about his general effectiveness at winning games and preventing unearned runs.

15. (14) George Burns. Slightly less peak than Duffy and slightly less career than Roush, but the same basic 7-10 years peak/prime numbers, with 3 seasons (1914, 1917, 1919) that were of MVP quality. His fielding numbers in 1922 suggest he could have been a quality CF had McGraw played him there. In competition with Groh and Doyle for the title of best former teammate of Frankie Frisch’s not to be in the Hall of Fame.

Required disclosures:
Joe Sewell. Though his WARP numbers are very good, I’m not convinced he’s more worthy than Long or Bancroft or Dick Lundy, and I am convinced he’s behind Beckwith, Moore, and Jennings among shortstops.

Hughie Jennings, Tommy Leach. Just off the ballot this week. I wish Jennings had played better for longer and Leach had hit or played 3B more.

Jake Beckley. Behind Sisler, Chance, and Taylor on my list of 1B. He’s in the eligible candidates team photo, but not on the ballot.

I’m generally a career voter, but am working on weighing peak and prime more heavily. No big changes this year, but it does hurt a couple of long-time favorites.

1943 ballot:

1. Oscar Charleston: He gets compared only to all-time greats: Cobb, Speaker, Ruth, Hornsby, Mantle, Mays. Bill James has him as the top Negro Leaguer and the 4th greatest player ever. Speed early, power later, outstanding defense, played forever and was productive throughout. Mays strikes me as the best comp.

2. Mickey Cochrane: AL MVP in 1934. Led AL catchers in Win Shares 9 straight years. Made 10 STATS All-Star teams, tied with Hartnett for most by a catcher. He has peak, prime, career, and the career is not short for the position or in context of the times. 30WS/162g is definitely HOM territory regardless of position. He’s the best pure catcher so far, a star player, and an easy choice ahead of a bunch of people who can’t claim “best” status.

3. Frankie Frisch: Definitely not the best 2b so far, but 366WS, A+ defense, long, productive career, and his teams won. This toy won’t tarnish with age.

4. George Sisler: Practically a perennial all-star before the illness, good but not great after – still, was the STATS all-star 1B in 1925, and a probable runner-up to Gehrig in ’27. Good black & gray ink. I’d think peak voters would really like him. Looks like some do, some don’t. (PHOM 1938)

12. John Beckwith: From all I’ve read, I have no doubts that he was a great hitter and that his defense left a lot to be desired. He probably would not have played a right-spectrum position in the majors, but there certainly would have been a place for that bat.

13. Tommy Leach: A+ defense at two important positions, solid offense for the era. Pennants added numbers help his case.

14. Joe Sewell: Ten all-star caliber seasons in a 14-year career, A- defender, above-average offense for a middle infielder. May have been the best of a weak lot at ss, however. (PHOM 1939)

15. Roger Bresnahan: I dropped him behind Schang for a few years, but Roger’s career suggests brilliance, Wally’s doesn’t. (PHOM 1932)

Required explanations:
Jennings: Brief, exceptional peak, but little else.
Rixey: Good for a long time. I had him right behind Faber, who was 15th on my ballot in ’39.
Van Haltren: He’s baaack! Good, not great. STATS AS teams: nada. Wish he’d either get elected or go away.

Newcomers:
Dick Lundy: Can’t make up my mind about him yet. Sewell seems like a good comp, which would place Lundy at or just off the bottom of my ballot.
Judy Johnson: Fourth on my 3b depth chart, behind Beckwith, Leach, Traynor.

I have 37 ballots recorded at this time...
... with an average consensus score for those 37 ballots of +10. Even though that will probably go down a little at the end, it's still a high consensus year. It's also true that if you've just been watching and not tallying, you still know who's going to be elected and who's going to be first in line carrying over to next year.

Since 1914 we have elected fifty-one players, but only two catchers. It’s time for another one. The guy with the career .419 OBP seems like a good choice.

3.John Beckwith
4.Jake Beckley
5.Clark Griffith

I am jumping on the Beckwith bandwagon. Chris Cobb and Gary A. have done an excellent job at presenting his case. At worst, he was a great hitting 3B/SS with around 280 career WS; my guess his total WS are somewhere between 325-250. As others have mentioned, he is very comparable to Dick Allen.

Incidentally, we’ve also elected exactly one first baseman since 1914, and his selection caused more controversy than the Ukranian elections. Terry and Gehrig’s imminent arrival still leaves roughly a thirty year gap (1897-1925) of first basemen in the HoM. Beckley would be an excellent choice to fill the void. Not much peak, of course, but a great career: 330-340 adjusted WS, thirteen seasons with an OPS+ of 123 or higher.

Between 1895-1901, Griffith never had a season ERA+ lower than 119 in a hitter’s era. In those seven seasons, Griffith was 154-87, .639 WP; his team’s WP was .449 without him.

6.Tommy Leach
7.Eppa Rixey

There seems to be a little backlash against Leach in this election. Leach played great defense at two key positions and could hit in the low-offense oughts. Win Shares may overrate centerfielders, but Leach was still a great player.

Rixey 4494 IP is 27th all time; Ferguson Jenkins, Eddie Plank, Jack Powell, and Roger Clemens (for the moment) are all within ten innings. I think Jenkins and Plank are good comps.

8. Bill Foster
9. Frankie Frisch

This is about where I ranked Vance and Coveleski, so Foster slips in here. The players in the HoM to whom Frisch is most comparable are Bid McPhee and Max Carey: long careers, excellent defense, pretty good hitting. A worthy HoM’r, although I’ve ranked him lower than most voters.

10.George Sisler
11.Edd Roush
12.Rube Waddell

Is Sisler the player whose career was most affected by a single injury? At age 29, he would have seemed to be a lock for the HoM. He had a great run from 1917-1922, hitting .407 and .420 in a couple of seasons. He played at a position which had not seen a dominant star since the 1890s. Koufax might be a contender for this “title”, if you consider his arm trouble a single injury, but I can’t think of any others offhand.

I’m surprised that I have this Roush this high; I thought he would end up near the CF glut off the ballot. He was clearly one of the best players in the NL from 1917-1921—an impressive prime, even with a small NL discount-- and was a good player from ’23-26.

Rube Waddell led the AL in K/IP for eight years, and was 2nd in another year. The lack of home runs reduces the value of strikeouts, but each K was an out that his defense didn’t have to record, and defenses were pretty lousy back then. He has three ERA+ titles. On the other hand, it appears he allowed a lot of unearned runs, his W-L records aren’t great…Waddell drives me crazy, which, given his life story, seems fitting.

13.Dick Redding
14.Ned Williamson
15.Hugh Jennings

Looking at Holway—with all the caveats implied therewith—it seems that Redding and Joe Williams were the best pitchers in black baseball, 1917-1922. Redding wasn’t as good as Williams, but he was one of at least the top seven in NeL history. As others have mentioned, he’s comparable to Bill Foster, which gets him on the ballot.

Like Leach, Williamson was an excellent fielder and decent hitter, but played in more offense-friendly and overrepresented era. I now have Jennings ahead of Childs. Childs has more career value, but not by a huge amount, and Jennings’ peak is so much better.

21. Van Haltren was merely a good hitter in a high offense era, and I think his WS totals are distorted by his pitching stint.

29. Joe Sewell Does not compare well to other shortsops in the HoM. I’m not convinced he was better than John Beckwith or Dick Lundy.

1.Charleston no brainer.
2.Cochrane (7) ditto. Wrests the catcher spot away from Ewing on the All-Time great team of players eligible to date.
3.Frisch (1) Anyone giving him a “screwed up the HOF” discount?
4.Foster 3rd best NeL pitcher.
5.Jennings (13) – PHoM in 1908. Played on 3 championship teams during his 5-year run as a superstar. 1st in 3 and 5-year peaks.
6.Beckwith PHoM 1940.
7.Rixey (9) More career value than any other pitcher in his era not named Johnson or Alexander put him in PHoM 1939. 4th in his era in Pennants Added.
8.Duffy (2). PHoM in 1912.
9.Leach (6) 7th in 8-yr peak, 5th in career. PHoM 1926. Joe’s pennants added agrees – he should be in the HoM.
10.Griffith (2) 4th best pitcher of 90’s belongs in, PHoM 1913.
11.W. Cooper (4) Pennants added likes him. PHoM 1942.
12. Mays (5) Pennants added likes him. I like these guys better than Vance or Faber.
13.Bresnahan (30) 19th in WS/162, but 5th in WS/600PA. Big position bonus to fill the void behind the plate. HoM will be flawed if we do not induct at least one Major League catcher who played between Buck Ewing’s retirement in 1897 and Gabby Hartnett’s debut in 1922. Dead ball era committee has him #1. PHoM 1928
14.Roush (3) Composite rank better than any single component. PHoM 1942.
15.Lundy Only Biz Mackey fared better in the Cool Papa’s survey.

I like the years where you have to slot in 4-5 new players a lot better than the years where you have to find 2 names from the backlog.

1. Oscar Charleston (n/a), Pitt. (--), CF / 1B (’15-’38) (1943) – There’s always room for another Hoosier on the ballot. I put him 2nd to Ruth all-time right now (i.e. eligible before '44 election).2. Frankie Frisch (n/a), N.Y. – St.L. (N), 2B / 3B (’19-’37) (1943) – George Davis was a shoo-in, and Frankie looks very comparable to him As I see it, Frisch comes out ahead - unless there’s a nominal bonus for SS.3. Mickey Cochrane (n/a), Phila. (A), C (’25-’37) – A 20% bonus for catching would probably give him the 2 spot. Currently, I’m only giving out 15%. 4. John Beckwith (1), Bkn (--), SS / 3B (’19-’34) (1940) – Appears to me to rank solidly among banned HOMers (a little above Grant Johnson). I estimate an EQA of 0.330 from the MLE’s. Short career, but definitely worthy by the numbers.5. Joe Sewell (2), Clev. (A), SS / 3B (’20-’33) (1939) – Don’t let it be said I have no love for the prime/peak guys. 6. George Van Haltren (3), NY(N), CF / LF (’87-’03) (1926) – Even un-adjusted, most career WS among 1B-OF. Leads the pack from the 90s holdovers.7. Jimmy Ryan (5), Chic. (N), CF / RF (‘85-‘03) (1926) – Don’t really understand the lack of support. I guess I never will.--. Dazzy Vance, Bkn (N), SP (’22-’35) – 8. Dick Lundy (n/a), Atlantic Cty (--), SS (’16-’34) – I see a comparison here with Frank Grant. Those who liked Grant should see something worthy in Lundy. As such, my guess is he makes the P-Hall and falls short of the group HOM.9. Ben Taylor (7), Ind. (--), 1B (’10-’26) (1938) – Similar to Beckley and Beckley’s in the P-Hall.10. Eppa Rixey (8), Cinc. (N), SP (’12-’33) – Solid above average ERA for a good number of innings. --. Red Faber, Chic. (A), SP (’14-’33) – --. Heinie Groh, Cinc. (N), 3B (’12-’27) – 11. Jake Beckley (9), Pitt. – Cinc.(N), 1B (’88-’07) (1929) – Treading water.12. Harry Hooper (10), Bost. (A), RF (’09-’25) (1931) – More emphasis on offense over defense for the OF’s gives Hooper the jump over Fielder.13. Clark Griffith (12), Chic. (N) - NY (A), SP (’91-’14) – This spot could be filled by any one of the players I have to talk about for leaving off (or 12 other players just like ‘em). 14. Rube Waddell (13), Bost. (N), SP (’97-’09) – The K’s still impress after all this time.15. Rabbit Maranville (11), Bost. (N), SS (’13-’33) – I don’t know whether great defense / no offense deserves to be in the Hall, but if we ever have enough confidence in a fielding system that we can compare runs created & runs saved as equally deserving, a redo of this project could have Rabbit in the top ten this year.

Bill Foster – Could really benefit from seeing yr-by-yr MLE’s. As is, 3000 innings of 125 ERA+ puts him into the mix of ‘Above Avg. 4000 IP’ guys and ‘Dominant 2500 IP’ guys. Comparing him to Rube Foster, I’ll take the 800 additional IP at a slightly lesser ERA+. Rube last appeared on the ballot in ’32, when I elected him one spot above Waddell. Today, Waddell is just on the ballot, so Foster is starting out just off.

Hughie Jennings – Not enough peak to overcome the career guys.
Tommy Leach – He needs a 3B-bonus just to get close to the VH/Ryan/Hooper level on the ballot. Less than half of his career games were in the infield, so don’t go too crazy with under-represented position bonuses.

2. Mickey Cochrane (-). Catching bonus moves him up. Very good hitter, durable in the years he played, not much to dislike since we're short on catchers lately.
3. Frankie Frisch (-). Once he's elected in by us he can start his campaign to get his teammates in.

4. Rube Waddell (2). Won six straight strikeout titles, top 10 in Ks per 9 innings 10 straight years - dominance you don't get everyday. In addition to major league service, he competed in PCL, AA, Western League throughout his career, having success but seemingly frustrating managers. One of the first AL superstars - his pitching was guaranteed to bring in a large crowd and help support the fledgling league.
5. Bill Foster (-). Negro League, non-Negro League, doesn't matter. If you can pitch like he did you'll get noticed.

8. Dick Redding (5). Wasn't Foster but also not a chump.
9. Hughie Jennings (7). SS with plenty of glove and bat in his prime, albeit for a short stretch of time. Knocked down by a strong class.

10. George Van Haltren (18). Have to make an effort to keep Ryan and Van Haltren near each other. Just seems after thirtysome years they're like PB & J.

11. Clark Griffith (10). Some tweaks to my pitcher rankings show him moving up amongst the populace. Is he HOM worthy is another question. Fills an era lacking a player or two in the HOM.

12. Pete Browning (9). Hitter with few rivals. Top 3 in batting average 9 times in 10 years. He hit in whatever league he played in. Star of the AA which is alright - I don't give extreme discounts for that league.

13. John McGraw (12). Limited playing time but what he did with it is nonetheless outstanding. Positional bump as well. Cons include just not playing enough but was on base all the time when participating.

14. Eppa Rixey (11). Keeps pitching, and pitching, and pitching...

15. John Beckwith (15). Analysis like the type done on Beckwith is why it's so interesting to be part of the project.

Beckley, Leach, Sisler, Sewell: Couple of them get pushed down the board with the incoming class of excellent players. All have held ballot spots in the past except Sewell and he's #26. Beckley is fighting with Sisler for the 1B votes. Leach gets points for playing two positions well but is also penalized for not being easily categorized. Sewell doesn't beat Jennings in my rankings and probably shouldn't go ahead of Beckwith either.

2. Mickey Cochrane (n/a) - As my other ballots have shown in the past, I have a tendancy to favor catchers.

3. Frankie Frisch (n/a) - Most any other year he could've had the #1 spot

4. Bill Foster (n/a) - 3rd best Negro League pitcher not only doesn't get a #1 spot on my ballot, he gets in at #4?? That really says something about the quality players ahead of him.

5. Mickey Welch (1) - Big drop for Mickey this week

6. Eppa Rixey (3) - It's hard to imagine that he can only scratch in at a slot this low. I personally really like Rixey.

7. Burleigh Grimes (4) - Tough debate on whether to have him above Rice or not

8. Sam Rice (5) - This is the type of consistency that I love

9. Pie Traynor (6) - One of the best 3b ever

10. George Sisler (7) - This is going to be an unpopular vote I know, but his peak was great, and there's enough career for me put him this high. What George has really done, is convinced me to move Beckley up on my ballot again.

11. Clark Griffith (8) - Same old story for Clark

12. Jake Beckley (9) - Not far off from Sisler.

13. Rube Waddell (10) - The top 5 in strikeouts for 10 consecutive years. He's #10 in the all-time ERA leaders.

14. Wally Schang (11) - Lots of career value for a catcher. I really wish I could justify having him higher right now.

15. Joe Sewell (12) - darn good shortstop, and you couldn't strike the guy out

16. John Beckwith (49) - Ok, I'll jump on the Beckwith bandwagon too. After his high ranking last "year" I realized that I had better reevaluate him b/c I was obviously missing something very important.

17. Dick Lundy (n/a) - I have him slotted just slightly worse than Sewell

18. George Van Haltren (13) - Moves ahead of Beckley and Bresnahan.

-------------My Personal HOM Line----------------

19. Jose Mendez (14) - I haven't been able to convince myself that he deserves a spot higher than this.

20. Roger Bresnahan (15) - It's no secret that I love catchers. I would've ranked Roger higher had he caught more and played the OF less during his peak years.

21. Herb Pennock (16) - If he'd only put up some good seasons before he was 25 he would've had a shot at my PHOM. He'll never make my PHOM, and I doubt he'll ever come close to making the HOM, but he's good enough to scratch in just ahead of Mays.

22. Jim Bottomley (n/a) - not Bill Terry material, but good peak and enough career for my personal liking. I doubt he makes the HOM, but he's one that I wouldn't be upset if he was somehow able to get enough support to make it someday.

23. Carl Mays (18) - People may laugh that he made my ballot, but Carl could pitch. With Sisler and Welch so high, I already have two unpopular votes, so what's one more for them to laugh at?

35. Harry Hooper (29) - nothing overly impressive about his career. I originally thought he would rank much higher than this on my initial ballot, but he just doesn't meet the qualifications in my mind that everyone above him does.

1. Charleston, Oscar – I see no reason to give him less respect than Babe Ruth.

2. Frisch, Frankie – Very good hitter and defensive player, by all measures. I probably should dock him a few points for letting all those bad HoFers in, but that’s not part of my analysis.

3. Cochrane, Mickey – In my opinion, our best catcher so far. A couple of MVPs and would have been a perennial All-Star. Also, clearly one of the leaders on some great teams.

4. Lundy, Dick – I see that most have Lundy slotted lower than Beckwith. I’ve been a bigger proponent of Beckwith’s than most, but I’ve got Lundy around 380 WS and Beckwith around 350, primarily due to defense (and position). They are both HoMers.

5. Beckwith, John – I’ve got him at roughly 350 WS, which given his position at 3B/SS is one hell of a number. Would have won a couple of MVPs, and you can only say that about so many third basemen and shortstops.

6. Foster, Bill – I do not pretend that I have Foster slotted correctly. After reading the HoM posts, I’ve given him a rating halfway between Coveleski and Vance, and in this particular election that puts him here. He is a HoMer.

7. Browning, Pete -- I have discounted his 82-85 and 89 seasons but he proved in the PL that he was no fluke. One of the best hitters we've evaluated or ever will evaluate. An outfielder in the early years, so I doubt his suspect defense detracts much from his overall value. Would have been in the majors earlier if not for the ear problem.

8. Monroe, Bill -- He certainly appears every bit as good as Grant, but competition was stiffening in his era, so he deserves more credit than Grant, IMO. I don’t see him getting elected now that Grant is in, but I would have preferred Monroe.

9. Sisler, George – Thought he would come in higher, but has poor defensive scores and WARP doesn’t like him much. Also doesn’t have the typical HoM RBI and runs scored numbers (even though I realize those are stats dependent on others). Very strong adjusted counting stats, and also fares well in WS.

10. Waddell, Rube – I’ve been holding him behind Griffith because his win totals are less impressive, but RSI gives some of the reason why, so I’ve moved Waddell ahead rather than letting him float at the end of my ballot.

11. McGraw, John – The guy’s OBP was .466! I would prefer a longer career, but among the backlog, I think he deserves some recognition. Plus, we aren’t too deep at 3b in the HoM.

12. Roush, Edd – Fine hitter without a lot of pop, but he certainly didn’t have any trouble getting around the bases for triples. Had several MVP-quality years (by WS standards – WARP doesn’t like him quite as much if you adjust the way they calculate defense). Not as good as Carey in the field, but contributed a lot more at the plate, and that’s a bigger factor in the outfield.

13. Jones, Charley -- No additional credit for blacklisted seasons. I think he has been overlooked from the beginning because of the relatively short career and lack of notoriety. Also, he was a bit chunky.

14. Griffith, Clark -- An excellent win pct on some bad teams. I boost his win totals and win pct by approximately 1/2 of his WAT. Has a nice career Linear Weights total also.

15. Duffy, Hugh -- Some good normalized counting stats, good grey ink and scores well on WS and WARP1 measures.

Required Disclosures:

Sewell, Joe – He’s #22 in my system, essentially tied with Larry Doyle and Tommy Leach, and just slightly ahead of Jake Beckley. A very solid player but not spectacular enough to crack the ballot for now.

Jennings, Hughie -- He’s #41 in my system, behind Jimmy Ryan (really behind Spalding) and ahead of Rabbit Maranville. I’ve never been comfortable enough with his career length to place him highly.

Rixey, Eppa – He’s #30 in my system, behind Mickey Welch and ahead of Spotswood Poles. I’ve got to side with the WARP analysis on this one…at 275 IP per year, he’d give you a WARP of about 4.2. I like steady, but I need some brilliance too. He moved up a lot from my prior ranking because of RSI.

Beckley, Jake – All career. Not much peak as HoMers and HoFers go. Only ordinary in grey ink and Keltner tests. He’s #25 in my system, behind Joe Sewell (really Wallace) and ahead of Vic Willis.

Leach, Tommy – He’s #22 in my system, tied with Joe Sewell and Larry Doyle. He has made my ballot from time to time.

Van Haltren, George – Please go away, George. You are #45 in my system, behind Herman Long and ahead of Heinie Zimmerman.

Four ballot worthy players appear this year. Bad news for the players in my "waiting room" as no spots open up.

1. Oscar Charleston - Quite possibly one of the best players ever. Most certainly one of the greatest of his time. Like Babe Ruth, the candy bar was not named after him.

2. Mickey Cochrane - Vaults over all other but Charleston. Between him and Frisch, the great catching career edges out the usually very good to great second baseman's career.

3. Frankie Frisch - Great player. Bill James describes him as "Alomar with his shoes on fire." Had a really good all-around career at second that is worthy. Find it a little disconcerting that some people may actually be holding his Veterans' Committee fiasco against him.

4. Mickey Welch - The 300 game winner. The discussion of the past couple of "years" have made me realize that Welch should be a HOMer. Is not that far behind Keefe.

5. Hughie Jennings - A monster for five years in all aspects of his time's play.

6. Pete Browning - Was a heck of a hitter and did it under tremendous duress. I buy the "greatness can't take full advantage off lower competition" idea. Proved he could hold his own in the Player's League.

7. Hugh Duffy - His credentials are that he was for a time one of the best players and he produced during the 90's. Then he just fell off. Was an outstanding defensive outfielder. I feel his peak gives him the edge over Ryan and Van Haltren.

8. Clark Griffith - The more that I look at him the more I realize I have been underestimating his accomplishments. The fourth best pitcher of the 90's should be in.

9. Bill Foster - Starts off where Vance and Coveleski would have been, since that is where a best guess places him for now.. Seems to be considered the best left-handed pitcher in the NNL. Will probably move up with more information.

10. Rube Waddell - Was a special picher. I buy the run support analysis and also believe in the higher value of being a phenomenal K artist in his time and place. His career record isn't that impressive but you have to remember that there were some stretches where he was jettisoned because his managers did not know how to deal with his unique personality.

11. George Sisler - Put up enough career with a very good to great peak that he goes above Beckley.

12. Bill Monroe - Keep gaining confidence in him. Seems to be one of the best second basemen of his time.

13. Dobie Moore - Fantastic peak with just enough career at shortstop.

14. Jake Beckley - The career man. What he accomplished during his career is enough to offset the lack of peak, so to speak.

15. Roger Bresnahan - Edges out Schang and Shalk. I believe his versatility is a major plus in his case. I can understand not giving him credit if you think his playing time at other positions was worthless but when he was an outfielder he was one of the best ones in the league. Not many players in history would be able to pull that of.

Not on ballot but made Top 10:

John Beckwith - It was between him and Bresnahan for the final spot. Excepting his hitting, still have many uncertainties about him and what type of career he would have actually have had.

Joe Sewell - A little more playing career and he would have been on the ballot. With all the new players still remains just off it.

Eppa Rixey - The flatness of his career keeps him on the cusp of the ballot.

Tommy Leach - Hangs on the edge of ballotville. Too many newcomers this year to push on.

After going back and taking another look at Hugh Duffy last week, I decided to go back and take a long look at just about everyone. The result? I completely revamped my ballot. And now it’s even screwier than it ever was before.

3. Eppa Rixey- I had not been giving him any credit for WWI service. I think if you do so, he’s a clear HoMer. 4. Wilbur Cooper- He was one of the very best pitchers in his league for 10 years- unless you completely discount the NL from 1914-1924, he meets the standards of the HOM. 5. George J. Burns- - OBP master- great leadoff hitter. I am now strongly convinced he belongs this high. 6. Larry Doyle- Finished in top 10 in league in OPS+ 7 times, in HR 6 times, in XBH 6 times, in times on base 5 times. He was a dominant offensive player in the league, comparable to Clarke and Magee, except he was a second baseman. As for his defense... Win Shares gives him a C+, John McGraw was apparently willing to live with him, and he was well regarded by his contemporaries (see BJHA, 1984 version). In other words, he doesn’t deserve a penalty that negates his offensive preeminence. 7. Ross Youngs- This is without any additional credit for his untimely death. Youngs was a terrific player- just didn’t live long enough to accrue career “points.” Nine full-time seasons, career avg. of .322 and OBP of .399. Led NY to 4 straight pennants from 1921-1924. 8. Burleigh Grimes- Now slips behind Rixey. I bet Grimes’ candidacy enjoys a resurgence down the road. 9. Joe Sewell- His ranking slips on my ballot, but I still think he’s clearly a HOMer. The American League is about 40 years old right now. Sewell has been the best shortstop for about 25% of the league’s history. Compare his WS year-by-year to other AL’ers in the 1920's- he was an elite player, and wasn’t just taking advantage of weak positional rivals. 10. Tommy Leach- Got a big boost and jumped onto the ballot, as I gave additional credit for stats depressed by the era in which he played. 11. Edd Roush - I had been underrating him. He had a bunch of very good years. 12. George Sisler- Another guy I underrated slightly, his peak was a little longer than I gave him credit. He bumps up over Konetchy (if Bill Terry was still on the ballot, I would rank him between the two) 13. Ed Konetchy - Another great first baseman, largely forgotten because of the era and teams for which he played. 14. Cupid Childs - Finally finds his way onto the ballot. I think it’s a shame Bid McPhee is in and he isn’t. 15. John Beckwith- All right, I’m convinced... sort of.

Frankie Frisch- cue outrage and general disgust at his missing my ballot. A few notes:

(1) I’m not a “career” voter.

(2) I like Frisch, really I do. I just think there are a lot of guys who are better candidates.

(3) He played in a tremendous era for offense and his statistics are not particularly remarkable for that era.

(4) As a result, the 2880 career hits don’t impress me that much (particularly when you also take into account his unimpressive walk totals.)

He’s going into the HoM next year, and that’s cool. But we’re going to see a lot of guys whose careers center around 1920-1940 with impressive hitting stats, and I don’t think Frisch stands out.

Bill Foster- At first glance, he seems like he could be a better candidate than Joe Rogan, which would suggest he should make the HoM eventually. A candidate for future study, I have him in the top 25 but not the top 15.

Clark Griffith- There are no pitchers off my ballot whose election I would be inclined to advocate, with the possible exception of Bill Foster and Mendez.

George Van Haltren: The reconsideration helped, but not nearly enough. Will never make my ballot.

Hughie Jennings- probably hurt by the reconsideration more than anyone. He had the five great seasons, but there really just isn’t anything else on the resume.

Jake Beckley: A personal fave, but he was the fourth best 1B for most of his career and was never one of the truly great players in the league. I found an old thread that compared him to Mark Grace, which sounds about right to me. Will never make my ballot.

Rube Waddell- We’ve elected a bunch of his mound peers. His career does not stand out compared to those elected.

Hugh Duffy- Ironically, the guy who inspired the reconsideration was one of the people most hurt by it. I have him around #17 right now, but I realized some of the 20th century guys were being more neglected than him.

Cannonball Dick Redding- Probably off the ballot, never to return, as I have him ranking below Foster and Mendez at this point.

3. Frankie Frisch (n/e) - (.865 PA, 250 WSaR, 386 WS). The main reason we are all doing this project. Set the Hall of Fame back 35 years by putting all of his teammates in). Great player though.

4. Eppa Rixey (1) - (280-237 CJ, .687 PA, 206 WSaR, 331 WS) Rixey is clearly the top pitcher on this ballot. He'd be over 300 CJ wins (and around .770 PA and 370 WS) if he hadn't served in the military in 1918-19. 300 game winners are a rare breed (especially after 1892) and in just about any other conditions before 1985, Rixey would have been one. It's a shame that he's considered a mistake Hall of Famer by many because of his W-L record, which was tainted by pitching for some bad teams. He's every bit as good as Robin Roberts was, for example.

5. Charley Jones (3) - (.714 PA, 197 WSaR, 287 WS) Give him credit for his blackballed years at .0875 per year and he's at .889 PA. That's basically his 1878, he was better than that in 1879, 1884 and 1885. Throw in 33 WS per year and we're at 343. Top 7 in OPS+ in the league every year he played from 1876-85, and he played some CF too. Wow.

6. Bill Monroe (4) - (Esitmated 344 WS if you give him credit for A defense) Still not convinced he was better than Grant or Johnson, but I am confident he was a star.

7. Gavy Cravath (5) - (.533 PA, 152 WSaR, 220 WS) Too much to ignore - either he was a freak of nature or there's a lot missing. Just giving him 4 years of extra credit at .075 PA, or 29 WS per season (he was better than that 3 times in his 30s) moves him to 336 WS, .833 PA.

8. Jake Beckley (6) - (.712 PA, 215 WSaR, 369 WS) A very good player for a very long time, much better than an average player. 11 seasons over 20 WS, which is understated by about 2-3 per season because of WS undervaluing 1B in his era. That has a lot of value in my opinion.

9. Clark Griffith (7) - (231-152 CJ, .765 PA, 216 WSaR, 320 WS). He rates as the top post 1893 pitcher on the ballot, by a long-shot - though earlier pitchers seem to have an advantage on PA (more innings in a season = more pennant impact). He falls behind Rixey when Rixey's war credit is included. It was also tougher for pitchers to have the same pennant impact in Rixey's era, so ties tend to go to the modern pitcher on this basis.

Why the rush on McGinnity and the stonewalling of Griffith? I just don't get it. I think we were way too friendly to McGinnity, but I can't see how he'd be in and Griffith out - Griffith absolutely deserves eventual induction.

10. Bill Foster - seems to me that he's similar to Coveleski, and this is about where I'd slot him.

11. George Van Haltren (8) - (.898 PA, 259 WSaR, 412 WS; .774/225/361 not counting the pitching) - Most WS and WSaR among position players on the ballot. Nice, long, consistent career, very good player for a long time. Not a bad fielder, but not a great one either, pretty good hitter. Never had a monster year, he didn't make any Stats All-Star teams, but he also played mostly in a one-league era, where only 3 All-Star OFs were named per year, not 6. Should get a signficant bump for his pitching, though it is easy to forget about it.

12. Tommy Leach (9) - (.775 PA, 226 WSaR, 355 WS) Win Shares loves this guy. He's underrated as a 3B and overrated as a CF because of the time he played in, but in the end it's a wash. Sure it wasn't a great league, but that's an awful lot of WS to turn your back on. He's also the 3rd highest rated 3B to date by WARP3 - just a hair behind Cross and Groh.

14. Wally Schang (11) - (.567 PA, 174 WSaR, 262 WS) The best white catcher we've seen since Buck Ewing. 117 OPS+ that was OBP heavy (career .393 OBP) and he lasted 19 years, though he never played more than 134 games in a season. He rates higher on WS and WARP3 (70.8) than Charlie Bennett (.525, 154 WSaR, 239 WS, 68.4 WARP3).

Schang is miles ahead of Schalk (.390 PA, 120 WSaR, 206 WS), and as far as I can tell, any white catcher of the era 1910-30 era.

15. Jimmy Ryan (12) - (.809 PA, 235 WSaR, 378 WS) Great player from 1888-92, and a very good player during the remainder of his long career.

dropping off . . .

16. Edd Roush (13) - (.796 PA, 228 WSaR, 340 WS) Great player from 1917-1920. His peak was every bit as good as Sisler. Sisler 1916-1922: 145 WSaR. Roush's best 7 seasons 152 WSaR. Sisler, one season at 25 WSaR. Roush two above that and another at 24. The remainder of their careers isn't close. I can't see voting Sisler over Roush. Even giving Sisler at 10% overall bonus for 1B not being measured correctly (which wouldn't even apply to 2nd half of Sisler's career, where 1B became a more offensive position Roush is ahead on all three measures.

17. Ben Taylor (14) - (Estimated 326 WS) Almost a direct replica of Beckley. Says a lot about the tightness of the ballot.

18. Jim McCormick (--) - Back on the radar.

19. Hugh Duffy (15) - (.820 PA, 231 WSaR, 348 WS) What? The guy I bashed, bashed and bashed again? I guess I was discounting his 1891 too heavily. It needs to be deflated, but not as much as I had. I also laughed away his 1894 as a very good year, but not a historic one in context - again, I was probably too harsh there.

21. Spotswood Poles (18) - (~332 WS)
22. Dolph Luque (19) - (with 3 bonus seasons at roughly .500 I see him at 239-199 (207-166 CJ), .667 PA, 197 WSaR, 297 WS)
23. Frank Chance (20) - (.649 PA, 185 WSaR, 257 WS) - don't forget to give him a slight catcher boost if that's something you do . . .
24. Roger Bresnahan (21) - (.579 PA, 170 WSaR, 249 WS)
25. George Sisler (22) - (.660 PA, 190 WSaR, 317 WS) Most of what I want to say about him is covered in the Roush comment. Additionally, Sisler was a great player from 1916-22. 1B had more defensive responsibility and Sisler still hit like a great outfielder. I see as quite similar to Don Mattingly, but Sisler was able to sustain his greatness a little bit longer and would have to rank ahead if forced to choose among them. I give him a 7.7% bonus for playing 1B - this is the percentage of his pennants added that game before 1923 (the date I generally use as my cutoff for deadball the deadball 1B bonus).
26. Mickey Welch (23) - (302-215 CJ, 1.414 PA, 341 WSaR, 536 WS) - I can't tell if RSI or WARP tells the true story. Extremely divergent opinions. Sad to see that he died this year without being elected.

1-Oscar Charleston
Charleston is one of top 10 players of all time…maybe top 5. He had all the tools. John McGraw said he was the “greatest player, period.”

2-Frankie Frisch 366 WS
Frisch was a winner. He was in post season 8 out of 19 seasons…very impressive for a non-Yankee in the days when the only post season was the World Series.

3-Mickey Cochrane 275 WS
Mickey made a great impact in a short career.

4-Dick Lundy
Besides being a great hitter Lundy is considered by Negro League expert John Holway to be one of the best defensive shortstops of all-time.

5-George Van Haltren 344 WS
8 of Van’s top 10 similar batters are in the other hall. I consider Van at the top of the list of the many worthy outfielders with long credentials waiting to get in the HOM. The fact he was traded to Pitt for an HOM caliber player (J. Kelley) is one more reason he deserves election.

6-Wally Schang 245 WS
Schang belongs in a special group of most overlooked ballplayers…Schang, Dahlen, B. Mathews, Start, Pike, Barnes, B. Johnson, etc. He played for several flag winners. Schang had great plate discipline. At the age of 39 he led the AL in HBP.

7-Pete Browning 225 WS
Pete does have a down side…but is getting a raw deal due to his prime being in the AA. He was a key player relied on by his teammates for most of his career. Grey Ink looks favorable. The Players League year removes the AA discount as an obstacle for me.

8-Dick Redding
James & Neyer rank Redding’s fast ball #2 from 1910 – 1919 behind Walter Johnson. Dick would be in the other hall if the annual Negro league picks started in 1995 had continued for a couple more years. The Cannonball shut out Smoky Joe Williams twice in 1920…including a 5-0 win at Ebbets Field.

9-Bill Foster
So often put in shadow of his big brother…but still considered by many to be the best left-hander in the history of the Negro Leagues.

10-Mickey Welch 354 WS
His win shares numbers show he was more than just the 1885 season. McCormick, Mullane and Mathews also deserve another look from the 19th Century.

11-Burleigh Grimes 286 WS
Grimes matches up well with the just elected Faber. His 270 wins and a high Grey Ink are impressive.

12-Hughie Jennings 214 WS
After more research moved Jennings up a few slots. Probably the #3 SS of the 90s after Davis & Dahlen.

13-Jake Beckley 318 WS
Like his career value. Connor, Crawford and O’Rourke and Clarke are all comps. Jake will eventually make into the HOM.

14-Sam Rice 327 WS
Wheat and Clarke are his comps. Rice ranks high on the triple list. He had success in both the dead & live eras.

15-Jimmy Ryan 316 WS
Ryan saw success early with the White Stockings then never tasted a pennant again after 1886. Leaving the MLB scene for 1901 hurt his career stats.

Rixey & Sewell just miss. Next ballot I’ll study Beckwith in more detail. Perhaps I’m misjudging him. He is far down on my depth chart right now.

1. Oscar Charleston—Ranked by Bill James as the fourth best ballplayer in the history of the game, and considered by many to be the greatest produced by the Negro Leagues.
2. Mickey Cochrane—Based on raw Win Shares alone, Frisch would be ahead of Mr. Cochrane; however, considering the position Mickey played, his peak more than makes up the difference in career value.
3. Frankie Frisch—So, I hear that we have Mr. Frisch to blame thank, partially, for this project. ;-)
4. Bill Foster—Considered by many to be the third best pitcher in the history of the Negro Leagues. Chris Cobb compares him to Dazzy Vance and Stan Coveleski, and since I know practically nothing about Negro League pitchers it’s a good enough comparison for me.
5. John Beckwith—John’s spot on my ballot is mainly based on Gadfly’s inestimable opinion on his hitting and Chris Cobb’s Win Shares projections.
6. Clark Griffith—While Waddell has better peak value (51.2 warp1 & 145 WS in 5 consecutive years vs. 45.7 & 143), Clark Griffith’s career advantage (45 more games, 320+ more IP, and 33 more WS) is enough to edge ahead of the Rube.
7. Rube Waddell—See comments on Clark Griffith.
8. Charley Jones—A legitimate star of the ‘70s, I finally decided to give him credit for his blacklisted years, jumping him from just off the ballot to here.
9. Hughie Jennings—Jennings has the highest peak of any of the available candidates. His peak also comprises of 73.4% of his warp1 and 70.1% of his WS. In the end, the brilliance of his peak outshines any questions I have regarding his career value.
10. Hugh Duffy—See comments on Edd Roush.
11. Edd Roush—Nearly indistinguishable from Duffy: 126 ops+ vs. 122; 109.7 warp1 and 315 WS (25.86 per 162) vs. 100.3 and 295 (27.51), giving Roush a slight career advantage IMO; 46.2 warp1 and 136 WS in best five consecutive years vs. 48.1 and 144, giving Duffy a slight advantage peak-wise.
12.Dobie Moore—Based off projections, estimates, and anecdotes, the Negro Leaguers are the wild cards of my HoM ballot. Called the “best unrecognized player” of the Negro Leagues by Bill James, and has been compared to Hughie Jennings.
13. Gavy Cravath—“He played ball, and lived his life, with a minimum amount of effort and nervous energy.” Cravath gets extra credit for his minor league performance, obviously, especially as the star of the Minneapolis Miners.
14. Eppa Rixey—Did not have a great peak, but Eppa was consistently real good for a long time. Best name on the ballot.
15. Pete Browning—Pennants Added has made me aware of the fact that I’ve been underrating Browning because of the shorter seasons during his playing time.

Disclosures:Joe Sewell—I see him as the third best infielder of his era when including Negro Leaguers Beckwith and Moore, and behind three other middle infielders: Jennings, Childs, and Doyle. So, Sewell falls just off my ballot.Jake Beckley—Very good career numbers, however, his peak numbers are among the lowest of any of the candidates. Even with adjustments, there are still other very good career, good peak guys I'd put ahead of him.George Van Haltren & Tommy Leach—I've had them on my ballot for the past couple years, but with the incoming class they just miss the cut. Both had long, solid careers, but were never "great."

I don't believe what Rusty said in #68 - there are still some unused lines at the bottom of my spreadsheet. Note that there are no votes yet this year for F. Jones, Dunlap, Pratt, D. Farrell, or Fournier.

It shouldn't cause a problem - this isn't a close election at this point. If the 5 people who haven't yet voted put the #3 candidate 1st on all of their ballots and left off the #2 candidate entirely...

You’d think with being stuck in the house all day Saturday because of the snow, I’d have gotten my ballot done. And you’d be wrong. Lots of Shiny New Toys this year, the top 2 make my PHoM.

1. Oscar Charleston (new) One of the all-time greats. Simple as that.

2. Frankie Frisch (new) I don’t know that I could defend putting him ahead of Cochrane in a sustained debate, but it just feels like the right decision to me. Long career, excellent fielder, OK hitter, made a ton of World Series. Of course, he couldn’t even put the right ex-teammates in the Hall of Fame (Heinie Groh)

3. Mickey Cochrane (new) Obviously deserving of induction, and the shortened career isn’t really his fault, but I just can’t put him above Frisch. I’m reasonably sure I’d wind up ranking Hartnett higher.

4. Bill Foster (new) I’m not that enthusiastic about any of the holdover candidates, even those in my PHoM. This is where Vance was, and about where Coveleski would be. His reputation warrants placement this high, even if I’m not completely certain it was fully deserved.

5. Tommy Leach (2) Excellent fielder at important positions, OK hitter. Among the candidates he has one of the best career arguments. His peak isn't great, but it's certainly respectable. I'm not so sure that the 1900s aren't the underrepresented decade. Made my PHoM in 1940.

6. Joe Sewell (3) Yes, the American League had no shortstops in the 1920s. But it was probably the stronger league (although less dramatically than in the 1910s), and as Guapo showed last year, Sewell was clearly one of the top 10 position players in the league. I see him as just a little better than Childs. Both middle infielders, good hitters, Sewell was a little better fielder. Similar career lengths, were both best at their positions in a decade (among white ball players). Sewell was probably playing in a better league. Made my PHoM in 1939.

7. Cupid Childs (4) He could hit the ball pretty well for a 2B and his defense was decent. I'd say his defensive advantage outweighs Doyle's offensive one. His career is on the short side, but he was the best second baseman of the 1890s, whatever you feel that's worth (among white players, at least). Made my HoM in 1932.

8. Bill Monroe (5) A good player at an important defensive position, with a great reputation for his fielding. Have him close to Childs, with a longer career, but probably less peak value. Made my PHoM in 1939.

9. John Beckwith (8) Could hit the heck out of the ball, questionable defense at big positions, not the friendliest guy to be around. I'm not wholly convinced yet, but the MLEs do argue for a pretty high ballot position.
10. George Van Haltren (6) Kind of a dividing line for me, as I can't see putting him in without Carey and Ryan as well. I know he was a CF, but he only made the top 10 in OPS+ 3 times, and was 10th twice (in 1888 and 1901) and 7th once (in the 1891 AA). That just doesn't seem like a HoMer to me.
(10A Max Carey)

11. Jimmy Ryan (7) Behind GVH because he dropped off fairly strongly after his accident. Never going to get that far away from him.
(11 A Bill Terry)

12. Dick Lundy (new) I agree, the MLE’s look very similar to Sewell, with a bit less peak, so he’s a little lower. This could be on the high side, but he was a very good player.

13. Dick Redding (10) If I was sure he was the #5 pitcher in Negro Leagues history, he’d be in my PHoM. But I’m not, so he’s not. I'm also not sure the teens need many more pitchers.

(13A Sam Thompson)

14. Hughie Jennings (11) His peak still leaps out at you, but there's just so little around it that I can’t put him higher than this.

15. Eppa Rixey (13) I might be underestimating him, and he did throw a ton of innings, but as I look at everything, he's definitely in back of Vance and Faber. Passes Mendez because having 3 NL pitchers and no ML pitchers on my ballot just didn’t feel right.

16. Jose Mendez (12) A very good pitcher who had some excellent seasons, but doesn’t quite match up to Redding.

(16A Rube Foster)
17. Spotswood Poles (14) His numbers seem similar to Monroe's, but he's an OF instead of a 2B. His defensive reputation appears good.
18. Dave Bancroft (15) Looking at how their Win Shares compared to the rest of their leagues, Sewell does have an edge, but it's not a huge one. Wins the award for "Best Frankie Frisch Selection".
19. Bobby Veach (16) Has good peak value and a halfway decent career value. Packed more punch into his career than Hooper. Seems like a good fielder for a corner OF.
20. Rube Waddell (17) Every time I check the numbers recently he moves up, but still not that much meat on the bones.
21. Ben Taylor (18) A little better than Beckley and Sisler to me for now. Top-3 Negro League 1B isn’t necessarily enough for me to put him in the HoM, though.
22. Jake Beckley. (19) There is a TON of career value, but his average season is just too average to give him that much credit.
23. Larry Doyle. (20) Amazingly similar to Ed Konetchy, but definitely a worse fielder. Is the 2B offense better than the 1B Defense?
24. Charley Jones (21) Hard to be sure how much credit to give for the blacklisted years, but clearly a good player.
25. Clark Griffith (22) I think the 1890s will have to suffer with 3 HoM pitchers, he just lacks the greatness I feel I need to see.
26. Roger Bresnahan (23) I was underrating catchers, and didn’t realize how good his CF years were. But the career’s still too short.
27. George Sisler (24) Not too different from Terry, but a worse fielder, and has more near or below average years.
28. Burleigh Grimes (25) Another pitcher from the 20's clump, doesn't measure up to Rixey and Faber.
29. Dobie Moore (26) I still don't really know how much to credit his Army years, but worst-case is Jennings-lite.
30. Vic Willis (27) Does well by Pennants Added, did have a lot of pretty good years.

Using OWP, playing time, and defense (Win Shares/BP) for position players, applied to .500 baseline. Using Runs Saved Above Average and Support Neutral Fibonacci Wins for Pitchers. For Position Players AND Pitcher, heavily weight comparison vs. contemporaries.

1. OSCAR CHARLETSON, CF/1B. .Estimated 179 OPS+ over around 13,300 PA’s, and played CF. Certainly in the Top 5 Negro League players of all-time. Career Major League comp is possibly Barry Bonds.

2. MICKEY COCHRANE, C. .643 OWP. 425 RCAP, 6,206 PA’s. Def: VERY GOOD. Very similar to Bresnahan offensively, but more games at Catcher with better defense gives Cochrane the edge.

3. JOHN BECKWITH, 3B/SS. . Estimated 164 OPS+ over 7,419 estimated PA’s, and played left side infield. THE best hitting 3B/SS in the Negro Leagues. Major League comp is probably Dick Allen.

11. JOHN McGRAW, 3B. .727 OWP. 459 RCAP. 4,909 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. Was CAREER ALL-TIME OBP% leader until Ruth qualifies in 1923, EVEN adjusting for League, and is STILL #3 behind Williams and Ruth. AND he played 3B, where offensive output was generally very low. Plus led his team to 3 consecutive championships.

15. CLARK GRIFFITH, P. 256 RSAA, 199 Neut. Fibonacci Wins, and 121 ERA+ in 3,385 innings. Career-wise, close to McGinnity. Keeps moving up due to comparison with contemporaries as one of the best pitchers of the 1890’s.

LEFT OFF THE BALLOT:NEWBIES:JUDY JOHNSON, 3B.. Just doesn’t appear to have been a major league star caliber hitter.

BABE HERMAN, RF. .678 OWP. 206 RCAP. 6,226 PAs. Def: POOR. Very good hitter, but if Browning or Tiernan or Van Haltren can’t make ballot, no room for Herman.

RETURNEES:

FRANK CHANCE, 1B. .720 OWP. 308 RCAP. 5,099 PAs. Def: VERY GOOD. Excellent hitter and good fielder back when 1st base was MUCH more important defensively. Top seasons blow away Beckley’s best. Loses out to Ben Taylor as best early century 1st baseman due to playing time.

DICK REDDING, P. 183 MLE Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 114 MLE ERA+ in 3,556 innings. Was the 2nd best Negro League Pitcher in his era, behind only Williams.

BUZZ ARLETT, LF/RF. Probably the greatest PCL hitter ever, and also had at least 2 great IL seasons. If he hadn’t broken his thumb, may have been given the opportunity to put up great MLB numbers (which he did in half a season). I think he’s very comparable to Pete Browning/Lip Pike – a great hitter with questionable defense.

RUBE WADDELL, P. 254 RSAA, 222 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 134 ERA+ in 2,961 innings. He was a more effective version of Nolan Ryan (fewer walks) and a LH clone of Dazzy Vance.

TOMMY LEACH, CF/3B. .552 OWP, 121 RCAP, 9,051 PA’s. Def: EXCELLENT – 3B, VERY GOOD – CF. Just slightly below Collins defensively, and he played longer. Basically did everything well, but doesn’t have the one outstanding area to get noticed.

JAKE BECKLEY, 1B. .596 OWP. 245 RCAP. 10,492 PAs. Def: AVERAGE. A very good for a long time player. Not as good as Sisler due to peak differences.

LARRY DOYLE, 2B .632 OWP, 273 RCAP, 7,382 PA’s. Def: FAIR. Best hitting 2B between Lajoie and Hornsby. Won MVP in 1912, finished 3rd in 1911. Finished in Top 10 in OPS+ 8 times. Hit like Ken Williams, only played longer and played 2B.

MICKEY WELCH, P. 179 RSAA, 225 Neutral Fibonacci Win Points, 113 ERA+ in 4,802 innings. I don’t see the basis for all the support he seems to be getting. Even if you GRANT he somehow “pitched to the score” where others didn’t (highly dubious) the adjustment for the few games where that MIGHT have happened can’t bridge the large gap in performance between Welch and the already elected pitchers.

TONY MULLANE, P. 241 RSAA, 240 Neut_Fibonacci_Wins, and 118 ERA+ in 4,531(!) innings. He could hit a little too. Had a very good career AND some really good individual seasons. AA discount keeps him from being much higher.

What are your HoM standards for second basemen, then, if Frisch isn't a shoo-in?

How does Doyle merit a spot over Frisch? I love Childs, but I couldn't come up with an explanation to place him above Frankie, either.

I hope that wasn't an outrage vote because of Frisch and the Vets Committee. Giving Anson or Jackson a first-year pass was certainly defensible, but leaving off Frisch for helping (believe, he had loads of help) induct his old buddies to the HOF is not.

Read previous ballots if you want more depth on my reasons for all but the latest eligibles.

In the midst of revising my system (yet again).
Maybe next election. (Crazy busy at work.)

1) O. CHARLESTON -- No denying.

2) F. FRISCH -- Good as Cochrane at his peak; much longer career.

3) H. JENNINGS -- Using rolling 5-year peaks for WARP-3, of those eligible, only he can claim to have been the "best player in baseball". All of the others have already been elected or are not yet eligible or are too obvious to mention; elected to my PHOM a quarter-century ago.

I agree it seems a bit silly, but I don't think we can question him about that having let someone rank Pie Traynor above Charleston without anyone challenging it.

But the answer is that the voter in question has almost no confidence in Negro League MLEs and has been consistent with that thinking. I don't agree with him, but it doesn't pay to keep debating the point every election. That dog won't hunt.

I don't think we can question him about that having let someone rank Pie Traynor above Charleston without anyone challenging it.

Anyone can question anyone; there was little impetus to do so this year because it was clear that the odd dissenters here and there wouldn't affect the outcome.

It's a small weakness of the system that the only votes that are obviously outrageous enough to challenge successfully will never make any difference in the outcome, so it's easier to let them pass with a few expressions of disbelief or outrage.

On the other hand, frequent challenges to ballots would make the HoM a lot less pleasant, so perhaps it's a strength of the system.

Just wanted to acknowledge what I consider to be legitimate questions of my ballot. It's past my bedtime, so I can't respond tonight, but will try to do so within the next couple of days on the '44 ballot thread.

I think accountability is an important part of the process. I wouldn't be opposed to seeing more frequent ballot challenges, as long as they don't become personal.

And John, it wasn't a retaliation vote. I can't imagine getting any personal satisfaction from snubbing someone in a PHoM election. Well, at least until Pete Rose is eligible... ;-)

PaulW, #58:two aspects of merit in contrast to value (the orthodox approaches to value)

Exactly. Or to put it another way, I seek unorthodox approaches to value. Alternative interpretations. Elements that are, IMO, not adequately captured in the prevailing analysis. Call it idiosyncratic, if you will, but it is a tradition embodied in Bill James analysis and I embrace it.

When dealing with Leach, Beckley and the great mass of essentially equal players outside of the top 5 candidates, I believe most of us look for these intangible tipping points in our analyses.

OTOH, some of us kid ourselves that we have a formula that can accurately separate players of value x and x+.0000000001.

As someone who has been questioned in the past (I'm the lowest Cochrane vote, unless I'm mistaken), I have to say there is NOTHING wrong with challenging another voters assertions.

Just do so politely. Don't make it personal. Reviewing your own work and conceptions is part of the process.

(I originally had Cochrane off the ballot altogther but being pushed to review him, I found extra value that I hadn't originally respected.)

And YES, there is a hugh difference between that and arguing that a vote should be thrown out. I wish everyoen would post prelim ballots so we can get that out of the way there, instead of fighting during the election.

That's just my personal preference. That is also why I post my prelim early so if I have missed soemthing glaringly obvious, someone will likely point it out.

Let's see - dead center average consensus score, very ordinary looking lists of highest-omitted and lowest-included, only one "best friend" note (ignoring the near-unanimous). Yeah, that was the lowest placement of Cochrane, but many of the others were applying a pretty substantial "catcher bonus" in some fashion.

Ballot does not qualify for the name "eccentric."

Actually, quite a few similarities to mine. We both had GVH high, Rixie mid-ballot, Sisler/Duffy/Roush in the bottom third. I had Cochrane higher, he had Beckley higher. I voted for Beckwith, Sewell, Childs, Doyle, Traynor; he voted for Leach, Welch, Ryan, Lundy, Rice. Neither of us voted for Griffith or Jennings.