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Mon, 21 Jan 2019 21:30:43 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.2Talking Yankees baseball.River Avenue BluesnoepisodicRiver Avenue Bluesjosephpawlikowski@gmail.comjosephpawlikowski@gmail.com (River Avenue Blues)Talking Yankees baseball.River Avenue Blueshttp://cdn.riveraveblues.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/RAB-Podcast-Logo.jpghttp://riveraveblues.com
Yankees,baseball,New,York,Derek,Jeter,Steinbrenner,A,Rod,Alex,RodriguezSports & Recreation/ProfessionalYankees,baseball,New,York,Derek,Jeter,Steinbrenner,A,Rod,Alex,RodriguezRiverAveBlueshttps://feedburner.google.comPassan: Yankees trade Sonny Gray to the Redshttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/94kkrpKOX80/
Mon, 21 Jan 2019 21:14:10 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183143It took a little longer than I think we all expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. According to Jeff Passan, Gray is heading to the Reds for an unknown return. Reports over the weekend indicated the Yankees would get prospect Shed Long and a draft pick, and possibility a second prospect as […]

]]>It took a little longer than I think we all expected, but the Yankees have finally traded Sonny Gray. According to Jeff Passan, Gray is heading to the Reds for an unknown return. Reports over the weekend indicated the Yankees would get prospect Shed Long and a draft pick, and possibility a second prospect as well. We’ll see.

More to come in a bit. My quick take: I’m glad this is finally over and we can all move on.

Update: Gray is signing an extension with the Reds as part of the trade, according to Ken Rosenthal. Apparently Cincinnati wouldn’t have done a deal without one.

Update II: Long is in the trade, says Passan. No word on the rest of the deal yet.

Update III: Gray’s extension is a three-year deal worth $30.25M, reports Passan. Including his 2019 salary, it is essentially a four-year, $37.75M contract covering 2019-22. There’s also a $12M club option and bonuses. Good for Sonny.

Update IV: Sounds like the full trade is Gray and lefty Reiver Sanmartin for Long and the draft pick, per Trent Rosecrans.

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/passan-yankees-trade-sonny-gray-reds-183143/A reunion with Adam Warren could make sense as the Yanks round out their bullpenhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/9yXDHdKXc1k/
Mon, 21 Jan 2019 19:30:42 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183003With Spring Training roughly three weeks away, the Yankees have accomplished their reported goal of adding two relievers this offseason. They re-signed Zach Britton two weeks ago and agreed to a deal with Adam Ottavino last week. Those two join Dellin Betances, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Holder to form a very strong bullpen […]

Relievers are pretty much the only free agents getting paid these days. Even then, there are still plenty of bullpen arms sitting in free agency. I count 45 of them. Among those 45 is two-time former Yankee Adam Warren, who’s market seems to be heating up. The Rangers want him (per Ken Rosenthal), the Cubs want him (per Rosenthal), and the Mets want him (per Andy Martino). Some team will sign Warren soon enough.

The Yankees have not been connected to Warren at all but a reunion does make some sense even after spending big for Britton and Ottavino. For starters, Warren is still very effective, throwing 30 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.29 FIP) in pinstripes last year. He wasn’t as good with the Mariners (3.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP) and his career splits are kinda funny:

As a Yankee: 3.18 ERA (3.61 FIP) and +7.6 WAR in 407 innings

As a Not Yankee: 5.08 ERA (5.42 FIP) and -0.4 WAR in 56.2 innings

We always hear about guys who can’t handle New York. Is there such a thing as a guy who can only handle New York? That might be Warren. In all seriousness, the Yankees know Warren and vice versa, and that’s not nothing. They know they can plug him right into their environment and he’ll handle it well. The ballpark, the clubhouse, the coaching staff, his role in the bullpen. No questions asked.

After returning to the Yankees at the 2016 trade deadline Warren bought into the anti-fastball plan …

… and the result was the best strikeout numbers of his career. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but, in his second stint as a Yankee, Warren struck out 24.4% of the batters he faced. It was 20.3% in his first stint as a Yankee and 19.5% in the season before the trade to the Cubs. Point is, Warren adapted and remained effective, so you know he can make adjustments.

There’s also the multi-inning potential. Warren didn’t do it quite as much last year — eight times in 24 appearances with the Yankees did he record at least four outs — but he still did it, and at age 31, he’s not so past his prime that it’s unreasonable to think he could do it for another year. When your starters don’t pitch deep into games, having a versatile multi-inning reliever in the bullpen is an obvious plus. The Yankees are said to want one.

Warren earned $3.315M last season and my hunch is he’s looking at something along the lines of Jesse Chavez (two years, $8M) and Hector Rondon (two years, $8.5M) money. Maybe he could milk a team for $10M across two years. Either way, that is the kind of contract that can fit into any team’s budget, even if the Yankees consider the $226M second luxury tax tier a hard spending limit. Even though he’d be at best the sixth reliever in the Yankees’ bullpen, Warren has shown over the years how valuable he can be in that role.

The question now is does Warren want to come back to the Yankees? By all accounts he loved being a Yankee and the team appreciated his professionalism and that he’s low maintenance. The Yankees have traded him twice though. Does Warren want to open himself to that possibility again? Would another team offer him a chance at high-leverage work or (gasp) give him a chance to start? I imagine he’d take that over being sixth (at best) on the bullpen depth chart with the Yankees.

Also, money will be a factor. Warren turns 32 in August and this may be his only chance at a nice free agent payday. Being a middle reliever doesn’t pay all that well and there’s minimal job security. Warren earned $8.9M in player contracts during his six years of team control, so while he’s done well, he hasn’t cashed in huge. This offseason might be his only chance at a good free agent deal. I’d bet on Warren signing with the highest bidder regardless of his role with the team. Gotta cash in while you can.

The Yankees don’t have to spend big on another reliever after signing Ottavino. The goal now is adding depth — quality depth — and a reunion with Warren would strengthen one of those final two bullpen spots. Maybe he can’t be a true sixth starter, but he can be a long guy. The Yankees know Warren and Warren knows the Yankees. As the seventh or eighth guy in the bullpen, the Yankees could do a heck of a lot worse than a third stint with Warren.

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/reunion-adam-warren-make-sense-yankees-round-out-bullpen-183003/Thoughts after the Yankees agree to sign Adam Ottavinohttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/A4YKQuFUbT8/
Mon, 21 Jan 2019 16:30:05 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183087The Yankees came into the offseason wanting two relievers and they have added two relievers. Last week the Yankees agreed to a three-year, $27M contract with Adam Ottavino. That comes two weeks after they re-signed Zach Britton. The bullpen’s looking pretty good right now and my list of six things the Yankees still have to […]

1. There are three things I really like about Ottavino. One, he misses a ton of bats. This is a big deal for me. I want as few balls in play as possible in the late innings of a close game. At all times, really, but especially in the late innings of close games. Last year 336 pitchers threw at least 50 innings. Ottavino had the ninth highest strikeout rate (36.3%) and 20th lowest contact rate (68.1%). That’ll work. Two, he dominated left-handed batters last season. Held them to a .174/.319/.241 (.252 wOBA) batting line with 32.4% strikeouts and 47.1% grounders. (Five intentional walks are inflating the OBP a bit. Remove them and it’s a .291 OBP.) Relievers without a significant platoon split are my jam. And three, Ottavino knows all about pitching in a tough environment. Pitching in Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general is no fun. It’s a very hitter friendly home ballpark in a division with three other hitter friendly ballparks. It’s not easy. Well, Ottavino spent the last seven years of his career calling Coors Field home, so he knows all about pitching in a tough park, where every mistake could wind up over the fence. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to succeed in Yankee Stadium, of course. I just like that he has experience in a very difficult home ballpark. It’s one fewer mental adjustment he has to make, in theory.

2. I’ve linked to it before and I’m going to link to it again: Ottavino turned his career around in a vacant Harlem storefront last offseason. It’s a wonderful story. I suspect many players would benefit from that level of self-analysis. I mention this again because it clearly shows Ottavino is into analytics and state-of-the-art training methods, and the Yankees are one of the most analytically inclined teams in the game. The Rockies … are not. (In October, Marc Carig and Eno Sarris reported the Yankees employ approximately 20 analysts. The Rockies have four.) I’m looking forward to seeing how Ottavino and the Yankees work together. Or, rather, seeing the results of their efforts, because we usually don’t get to peek behind the curtain to see the process. Maybe the result is not Ottavino getting better, the way he did last year. Maybe the result is simply maintaining that level of performance deeper into his career. We are talking about a reliever entering his mid-30s, after all. Long story short, Ottavino and the Yankees appear to be a very good fit for each other given their commitment to analytics and using data to get better. Not many players are open to these ideas, which is fine. To each their own. Ottavino is and now he’s with one of the top analytic organizations in the game.

3. That all said, Ottavino does come with risk. Considerable risk, I’d say. There’s a reason he had to rebuild himself last offseason and that’s because he stunk in 2017. He is one season removed from a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) with a 16.1% walk rate in 53.1 innings. Colorado left him off their 2017 NL Wild Card Game roster. This is about as spectacular a meltdown as you’ll see:

?

Yikes! That was a long time ago though. Ottavino worked hard last offseason and corrected whatever was wrong with him in 2017. He failed, he adjusted, he succeeded. This is still a reminder Ottavino is not bringing a long track record to the table. Only twice in his career has he performed like he did in 2018 across a full season: 2013 and 2018. The Yankees are assuming some risk here and I think that, given the state of the bullpen, they’re better able to absorb that risk than most teams. Should Ottavino struggle with his control again, the Yankees have the depth to cover the late innings, the same way they had the depth to cover the late innings two years ago, when Dellin Betances lost the plate. Relievers are notoriously unpredictable. Even the best relievers can have poor seasons out of nowhere. If the Yankees get all their relievers clicking on all cylinders this year, they’ll be unstoppable. If Ottavino struggles like he did in 2017 again, they won’t be as good as they can be, but they’ll have enough high-end bullpen arms to handle all those high-leverage innings.

4. Potentially stupid question: Is Ottavino a luxury? I mean, there’s always room for another high-end reliever in the bullpen, especially these days, but there are only so many high-leverage innings to go around. Dan Szymborski wrote about this following the Adam Warren trade. Long story short, as effective as Warren was last year, he was far down the bullpen depth and pitching in low-leverage spots. It was a waste of his ability. So, rather than continue using Warren that way, the Yankees cashed him in as a trade chip and let cheaper relievers (Luis Cessa and A.J. Cole) pitch in those situations. That’s the argument against “too many good relievers.” There aren’t enough high-leverage innings for everyone. I don’t agree with it but I do understand it. There are three reasons I don’t consider Ottavino a luxury. One, injuries and poor performance happen, and I want as many quality options as possible going into the season. At the deadline I’d rather be the team in position to trade away an Adam Warren than the team that needs an Adam Warren, you know? Two, starters are throwing fewer innings with each passing season, which means more innings for the bullpen. Inevitably, many of those extra bullpen innings are high-leverage innings. And three, every inning in the postseason should be treated as a high-leverage inning. That’s really what the super bullpen idea is about. The postseason. I know the Yankees had a super bullpen last year and I know they lost in the ALDS. That doesn’t mean they should stop building super bullpens. In October, when every single inning means something, the more quality relievers a team has, the greater their chances of success. Across the 162-game regular season, yeah, maybe Ottavino is a luxury. I don’t consider him a luxury for the postseason though, and besides, these are the Yankees. They should be all about luxury items.

5. I am curious to see what the bullpen roles will be this season. They tend to change year-to-year — at this point last year not many folks were counting on Dellin Betances taking over as the unquestioned eighth inning guy again — and pitchers work themselves into roles organically. They just kinda happen. I can see these being the bullpen roles going into the season:

Closer: Aroldis Chapman

Eighth Inning: Dellin Betances

Seventh Inning: Zach Britton and Adam Ottavino (based on matchups?)

Fireman: Chad Green

That leaves Jonathan Holder and the two still to be determined relievers for all other situations. They’re the “only when losing” relievers, basically. David Robertson was so great as the fireman and now I’m not sure who fits best in that role. Betances is an easy target for stolen bases. Ottavino still walks a few too many. Britton allows a few too many balls in play for my liking. Green was used in that role quite a bit last season and I imagine he’ll get the first crack at it this year. We’ll see. Like I said, bullpen roles tend to change throughout the season, so there’s no sense sweating them in January. I could see what I’ve laid out above being the roles going into the year, then the Yankees adjusting as necessary. This’ll all work itself out and I’m curious to see how.

6. Do the Yankees have the best top-to-bottom pitching staff in baseball right now? Sounds crazy, I know, but it might be true. On paper, at least. Who knows how things will play out on the field. Here are the top projected 2019 pitching staffs according to FanGraphs:

Yankees: +22.8 WAR

Indians: +21.9 WAR

Astros: +20.3 WAR

Mets: +19.9 WAR

Dodgers: +19.6 WAR

Reminder: Projections are not predictions. They are an attempt to estimate a player’s current true talent level and right now the numbers think the Yankees have the most pitching talent in baseball. It’s not all because of the bullpen either. The Yankees have the third highest projected rotation WAR in baseball. Again, we’ll see how it plays out on the field, because injuries and other unexpected things happen, but that is pretty cool. Sonny Gray is going to be traded and I’d like the Yankees to bring in a veteran swingman/sixth starter type — I’ve banged on the Francisco Liriano drum a few times this winter and there’s no reason to stop now — and I suspect they will. Otherwise I feel great about the bullpen and very good about the rotation top four. I’m also more confident in CC Sabathia than many folks seem to be. Maybe the anti-Sabathia folks started following baseball in the ALDS. Well, whatever. Over the weekend Bob wrote the Yankees have an underrated pitching staff. That is true. This isn’t a good pitching staff. This is a great pitching staff with a chance to be one of the very best in the game.

7. Does the Ottavino signing mean anything for Betances long-term? Betances will be a free agent next offseason and the Yankees already have three big money relievers on the books in Britton, Chapman, and Ottavino. Those three will combine for $39.2M against the luxury tax payroll the next three seasons. Would the Yankees really give a market rate contract to Betances and spend something like $50M annually on four relievers? Maybe they would. Two things to consider here. One, Betances will make $7.25M this year, so the Yankees are already at $46.45M for four relievers in 2019. A market rate contract means Dellin would get something like a $5M raise after the season, and the extra $5M or so may not be a dealbreaker for the Yankees. And two, Chapman can opt out of his contract after the season, potentially freeing up $17.2M annually. That would obviously impact the team’s spending plans. The first two seasons of Chapman’s contract have been very good overall but also a bit of a mixed bag. In both seasons he spent a month on the disabled list (shoulder in 2017, knee in 2018) and had to be removed from the closer’s role for a few weeks. If that happens again this year, and his velocity continues to drop, I don’t see Chapman opting out. Walking away from two years and $34.4M would be awfully risky given how teams are treating free agents. With a good and a healthy season though, Chapman could opt-out, especially if Craig Kimbrel manages to cash in huge. We’ll see. Ultimately, the single biggest factor in the Yankees’ decision whether to re-sign Betances will be Dellin’s performance this year. With another great season, it’ll be awfully tough to let him walk, especially since we’re only talking a $5M or so raise on top of what he’s currently making. I don’t think the Ottavino (or Britton) deal means anything for Betances’ future with the team.

(Jeff Curry/Getty)

8. It seems to me the Yankees traded a third guaranteed year for a lower average annual value. Andrew Miller (two years, $25M with a vesting option) and David Robertson (two years, $23M with a club option) are roughly the same age as Ottavino and they landed two-year guarantees with a higher annual salary. Ottavino doesn’t have their track records, but it seemed to me he was in line for a similar contract. Two years at $11M to $12M per season, with some sort of third year option. Instead, he got the third guaranteed year, and the Yankees saved $2M to $3M annually. This wouldn’t be the first time the Yankees traded an extra year for a lower average annual salary and thus a lower luxury tax hit. They reportedly did the same thing with Chase Headley. Even with a higher luxury tax number, I would’ve preferred re-signing Robertson to signing Ottavino. They’re basically the same age and Ottavino’s track record is way shorter. His upside is basically what Robertson has been doing the last eight years. I am more confident in Robertson being great the next two years than I am Ottavino. That said, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between the two, and ultimately the Yankees got three years of Ottavino for only $4M more than the Phillies will pay for two years of Robertson (or $2M more than the Cardinals will pay for two years of Miller). This seems like a repeat of the 2014-15 offseason. That winter the Yankees let a known commodity in Robertson walk and replaced him with Miller, a similarly dominant reliever with a much shorter track record on a cheaper contract. That worked out quite well. Passing on Miller or Robertson in favor of Ottavino is a similar decision.

9. The Ottavino signing pushes the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll to $228.5M based on my back of the envelope math. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. The Yankees are either slightly above or closing in on the $226M second luxury tax threshold and the still not complete Sonny trade will give them breathing room. The $226M threshold may be the team’s limit. They get hit with a surtax at that point — their top 2020 draft pick moves back ten spots when they hit the $246M threshold, not the $226M threshold (my bad for screwing that up earlier) — and, generally speaking, it gives them less financial flexibility going forward. I am on team sign everyone. Bring me Bryce Harper and Manny Machado and spend that money. What’s the point of creating payroll flexibility if you’re not going to use it to land stars in their prime? Anyway, the Yankees are clearly going to exceed the $206M luxury tax threshold this coming season. I didn’t think it would happen and I am happy to be wrong. Realistically, there’s no way now to get under the $206M threshold and stay there all season. Will they exceed the $226M threshold? Unless there’s a surprise Machado or Harper signing coming, I don’t think so. Trading Gray gives them about $5M in wiggle room under the $226M threshold and my number already includes an estimate for in-season injury and September call-ups, so that’s $5M for the trade deadline. It may not seem like much but it is, especially since the Yankees have shown a willingness to kick in an extra prospect to get the other team to eat some salary. The Yankees still aren’t running a payroll as high as the one they can almost certainly afford. At least now they have a payroll more commensurate with their status as a World Series contender in the game’s largest market. That’s better than nothing, I guess.

10. And finally, the big question on everyone’s mind: Will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0? No player in Yankees history has worn No. 0 (or No. 00 for that matter). Last week we polled the masses and the response was overwhelmingly in favor of letting Ottavino wear No. 0.

Should the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 and will the Yankees let Ottavino wear No. 0 are very different questions. Should they is an easy yes. It’s a uniform number. Why would a player wearing No. 0 bother anyone? They Yankees would probably sell more Ottavino shirts and jerseys with No. 0 than any other number. Will they let him wear No. 0 though? Giving a player No. 0 seems very un-Yankee-like. Then again, I never thought I’d see the day the Yankees wore throwback uniforms or gave a player his own cheering section, but that happened, so maybe they’re loosening up a bit. Eh, whatever. It’s just a uniform number and I’m not going to get worked up about it. Ottavino has worn other numbers as a big leaguer (Nos. 35 and 56 with the Cardinals and No. 37 early with the Rockies) and my guess is he’ll wear something other than No. 0 with the Yankees.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/fan-confidence-poll-january-21st-2019-183094/Update: Yankees, Reds making progress on Sonny Gray tradehttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/0leVUZCLrbc/
Sun, 20 Jan 2019 19:32:41 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183057Friday: The Sonny Gray trade rumors continue to swirl. Earlier today we heard the Yankees are moving closer to a deal, and now, according to Ken Rosenthal, and Yankees and Reds are making progress on a trade that would send Gray to Cincinnati. There haven’t been any updates since Rosenthal’s report, which is pretty annoying! […]

The Yankees have interest in catcher prospect Tyler Stephenson and second base prospect Shed Long. Baseball America (subs. req’d) and MLB.com both rank Stephenson and Long as the sixth and seventh best prospects in the Reds’ system, respectively. [Jon Heyman]

Getting Stephenson, Long, and a draft pick for Gray seems way too good to be true to me. It sounds more like those are the players (and pick) the Yankees have sought in their latest trade talks. Who knows whether the Reds are willing to give them up though. Maybe the Yankees can snag two of the three in a trade. That’d be pretty sweet.

My quick math puts the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at $228.5M following the Adam Ottavino deal. Trading Gray and his entire $7.5M salary would get them under the $226M second luxury tax tier. The Yankees have made it clear they want to trade Sonny. Now that just about every other piece of offseason business has been handled, they figure to get around to moving Gray.

At the moment Gray has not been traded to the Reds. The two sides are only progressing toward a deal, as far as we know. Reds catcher Tucker Barnhart sent out a cryptic tweet this afternoon, so maybe the deal is done and we just don’t know it yet. Either way, hopefully this gets wrapped up soon. It’s been dragging on far too long already.

Saturday: According to Heyman, the Yankees and Reds are getting closer to a trade but it’s not done yet (argh). They’re discussing two prospects and the draft pick for Gray. Cincinnati wants to keep Stephenson, so right now talks are centered around Long, the draft pick, and an unidentified second prospect. Intrigue!

Sunday: The Yankees and Reds have agreed to the trade package but apparently Cincinnati is trying to sign Gray to a contract extension before finalizing the trade, report Heyman and KenRosenthal. The Yankees have to give the Reds permission to discuss an extension with Gray (duh) and if they do work out a deal, the Yankees could get more in return. Huh. Everyone root for an extension.

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/reports-yankees-reds-making-progress-sonny-gray-trade-183057/Thoughts on a Rainy Sundayhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/HY7LVq5aYf8/
Sun, 20 Jan 2019 15:00:27 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183081Good Sunday morning, readers. If you’re in the tri-state area, I hope you’re staying dry today and warm tomorrow. Today, I’ll offer a few random thoughts on the Yankees as we sit a little less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting. Clint’s Comeback after a longggggggg battle with the concussion like symptoms […]

Good Sunday morning, readers. If you’re in the tri-state area, I hope you’re staying dry today and warm tomorrow. Today, I’ll offer a few random thoughts on the Yankees as we sit a little less than a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting.

Clint’s Comeback

after a longggggggg battle with the concussion like symptoms i’m happy to tell u i’ve been cleared to participate in spring training and go after what i’ve wanted since being traded over here, to win an outfield job and show u guys what i can do. i’m readyyyyyyy. pic.twitter.com/qsi7LcMmbr

This is one of the best Yankee-related tweets of the offseason. I know I’m not alone in this, but I’m incredibly excited for the return of Clint Frazier. He had just about the worst year a player can have last year and seeing him get back into the swing of things is more than enough to bring a smile to my face. Red Thunder The Panther will likely have to start out the year in the minors, but it’s not hard to see him taking over for Brett Gardner as Mike alluded to in the Friday mailbag. While Frazier shouldn’t stand in the way of signing him, one positive thing about the Yankees not signing Bryce Harper is that it keeps Frazier’s future within the organization. I’ve long been a big believer in him and his talent and, if healthy, I think he can establish himself as a big league player this year. Good luck in 2019, Clint. We’re rooting for you.

Playoff Pitching Prowess

Bobby is completely right when he says that the Yankees have one of the best rotations in baseball going into 2019. I’ve harped on this before, but the talent in the Yankee rotation is almost astounding. At peak levels, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton are aces. J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia as back end starters are great–an experienced, proven lefty and a borderline Hall of Famer? Hard to beat that. Paired with an elite bullpen, the Yankees’ pitching staff could make noise in the playoffs. There’s just one catch: they need to win the division to do that.

The Yankees are a damn good team and will likely win well north of 90 games, but will it be enough? They haven’t won a division title since 2012 and have played in three of the last four wild card games. Despite similar talent in the rotation at times, they’ve been unable to use it properly in a series because of that one game playoff.

If the Yankees manage to beat out Boston for the division title this year, they’ll finally be able to set their rotation the way they want and not have to worry about a gassed bullpen heading into the start of the ALDS. A top three of Severino, Tanaka, and Paxton is more than formidable in any series, especially a short one, and throwing Happ and/or Sabathia as long men out of the bullpen can help, too. Winning the division is much easier said than done, but it’s something the Yankees need to do to fully exploit the pitching talent they have.

(Jim McIsaac/Getty)

The Andujar Endgame

At this point, it seems clear that the Yankees are hitching their third base wagon to Miguel Andujar. For good reason, they clearly believe in his bat. They also likely think that he can improve on defense or that they can mitigate his poor fielding through substitutions and lineup shuffling. But given how they treated him in the field in the playoffs, how long can we really buy that? Playing a significant amount of time at DH or a new position like first would probably cut down on the value Andujar has as a third baseman, even a bad one. On the other hand, his bad defense does the same thing the more he spends time at third. And, with that aforementioned treatment in mind, are we sure that Andujar is most valuable to the Yankees as a third baseman or as a potential trade piece?

Obviously, anything can happen at any time and the Yankees could sign Manny Machado and deal Andujar at a moment’s notice, but I’m not holding my breath for that one. Hell, I’m not even waiting for it, and I’m barely bothering to hope for it.

One More Time

Despite what I said in the last bit, there’s still a part of me in disbelief that neither one of Machado or Bryce Harper isn’t a Yankee (or both!). I’ve seen people–mostly writers–make the argument that the Yankees don’t necessarily need either player because of how good they were last year, but that’s a half-truth.

Yes, the Yankees won 100 games, but it still wasn’t enough to win the division and avoid being embarrassed in the playoffs. Yes, they will win lots of games with the roster as currently constructed and could, conceivably, win the World Series with it. No, having the most talent doesn’t guarantee anything. But it helps.

The Yankees were good last year, and at times great. They have a solid young core with some good veterans mixed in. This is exactly the team and exactly the time to push over the edge in a big way. They’ve added to the team with good pieces so far, but adding great ones in Machado and/or Harper would go a long way towards helping win number 28.

It’s undeniable that the team has been improved. But it’s also undeniable that it hasn’t been improved as much as it could’ve been.

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/thoughts-rainy-sunday-183081/The Yankee Pitching Staff is Underratedhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/gL7xq9nwC54/
Sat, 19 Jan 2019 15:01:15 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183064“The Yankees need more pitching,” virtually everyone in your Yankee life has told you this offseason (and probably every other one before it). That’s true, but only because all 30 teams in baseball need more pitching: high-end pitching talent is hard to come by and there’s no such thing as too much good pitching. But […]

“The Yankees need more pitching,” virtually everyone in your Yankee life has told you this offseason (and probably every other one before it). That’s true, but only because all 30 teams in baseball need more pitching: high-end pitching talent is hard to come by and there’s no such thing as too much good pitching. But the way the Yankee pitching is discussed by many fans and analysts has led the staff to become significantly underrated. Let’s be clear: the Yankees are hard to hit. They’re one of the hardest teams in the league to hit against, in fact, and they figure to maintain that production next year.

Most of the Yankee moves this offseason have centered around augmenting the bullpen and improving the rotation. The team’s short-sighted neglect of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper has left a lot of fans—myself included—frustrated, but it has also obscured the fact that in an offseason where contenders like the Dodgers, Indians and Astros have done little-to-nothing to improve and the defending champion Red Sox haven’t done anything at all, the Yankees have actually improved. That is especially true when it comes to pitching. Let’s break this one down.

1. Rotation

It seems to be conventional wisdom among many Yankee fans that the team’s starting pitching is inadequate for a team trying to win a World Series. There is no such thing as too much pitching, but the reality is that the Yankees have deployed one of baseball’s most effective rotations since the beginning of 2017: the Yankees ranked 4th in the American League by bWAR and 2nd by fWAR in both 2017 and 2018, and the team’s strikeout, walk and home run rates are all in the top 5 in the league over the two years.

But even despite that success, it was clear that improving the rotation was a top offseason priority. The Yankees started Sonny Gray, Domingo German, Jonathan Holder, Lance Lynn or Luis Cessa 52 times in 2018—almost a third of all games. (That the Yankees still won 100 games says a lot about the ferocity of the Yankee offense and, again bucking conventional wisdom, both Joe Girardi and Aaron Boone’s bullpen management.) The addition of James Paxton, coupled with the return of CC Sabathia and a full season of J.A. Happ, was designed to avoid a repeat of that revolving door in 2018. It’s clear that, on paper at least, the Yankees significantly improved.

Paxton, a power lefty who is dominant when healthy, gives the Yankees another legitimate top-of-the-rotation arm to pair alongside Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka. Severino, despite his shaky second half, owns a 3.18 ERA (140 ERA+) over 384.2 innings since the start of 2017, striking out almost 30 percent of batters faced. He is one of a few pitchers in baseball who can be considered a legitimate ace. Tanaka is a bit underrated due to recent inconsistency: he has a 3.59 ERA (118 ERA+) in 824 innings since 2014. While Paxton is an injury risk (which pitcher isn’t?) the goal is to acquire high-end talent, and that’s exactly what the Yankees have at the top of their staff.

On the back end of the rotation, Happ and Sabathia will be tasked to fill the innings that were filled by Gray and co. last year. Happ, despite his age, remains very effective (he logged a 3.65 ERA (3.98 FIP) in 177.2 innings in 2018) and is a more than a reliable 4th option. Sabathia, who returns to New York for his 10th season, is one of the best 5th starters in the league: he threw 153 innings of 3.65 ERA (120 ERA+) ball last year, again made possible by the fact he hardly gives up hard contact.

This all adds up to a rotation that is markedly improved from last year’s, barring significant injury. It’s hard to shake the feeling that they should have added another top-end arm in Patrick Corbin (choosing Happ over Corbin, I suspect, is going to irritate me for while, and I like Happ) and improved even further, but even still: the Yankees should have one of baseball’s best rotations in 2019.

2. Bullpen

There is nothing under the radar about the Yankee bullpen, which features several high-powered, swing-and-miss arms and is almost certainly the game’s best. The Yankee bullpen was one of only four in baseball last year to boast a K/9 rate over 10 and the only one in the league with a rate over 11, a major contributor to the fact that it was the league’s top bullpen by a full win, per Fangraphs.

David Robertson, one of the most important bullpen pieces in the 2018 season, is off to Philadelphia, and while the Yankees will miss him, his loss was quickly mitigated by the return of Zach Britton and the addition of Adam Ottavino. They join Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances and Chad Green in the back-end of the bullpen, giving the Yankees (in theory) five top bullpen arms. In the Age of the Bullpen, I’d say that qualifies as Pretty Good.

Bullpens are notoriously fickle and almost impossible to predict, but I’m confident saying that this group should be as unhittable as it was last year. Chapman, Betances, Ottavino and Britton all have an established track record of success across multiple seasons: they’re each elite relievers and have been for a long time. Green, even though he wasn’t as dominant in 2018 as 2017, was more than a reliable option for Aaron Boone last year.

These five arms allow the Yankees to shorten games considerably. This is before considering Jonathan Holder, who had a 3.18 ERA (2.98 FIP) with 8+ K/9 and only 2 BB/9 (good enough for a 1 win season as a reliever) last year. The depth of the bullpen itself is a strength: while performance can fluctuate wildly, the fact that there are so many top-shelf arms offers a layer of protection that most teams simply don’t have. (Any one of these arms, with possibly Holder excluded, would be the best arm in Boston’s Kimbrel-less bullpen, for instance.) That depth may even free up Aaron Boone to use Green for multiple innings per outing (which he prefers) and takes a significant weight off of the shoulders of younger options like Stephen Tarpley, who may well get an extended look in 2019 after an impressive showing in September.

We saw the power of a dominant bullpen in October. The relief corps held Oakland down in the Wild Card Game, allowing the Yankee offense to create separation and strong performances in Games One and Four of the ALDS meant that the Yankees were able to remain within striking distance. The one poor outing, Game Three, was mostly brought about by the fact that Boone went to Lance Lynn for the most important at-bats of the year (sorry for bringing it up, but I won’t ever get over this one).

A dominant bullpen is becoming less and less of a luxury and more of a necessity for a team trying to win the World Series, and the Yankees have built the game’s best.

3. Outlook

There are no guarantees in baseball, and there are still question marks regarding the rotation. It feels an injury away from looking much less fearsome, but it’s worth remembering that the same is true for virtually every team in the league. That most of the rotation discussion is centered around the 6th starter option should tell you all you need to know about the status of the rotation going into 2019, and I don’t think there’s a fan or analyst out there worried about the Yankee bullpen.

Anything can happen, and pitching is unpredictable. But a full survey of the entire pitching staff demonstrates that it is among baseball’s most talented and has been among the most effective in the league over the past two years. It only got more talented this winter, and that means the Yankees should once again be one of the hardest teams to square up in 2019.

I’m passing this nugget along because it’s out there, so you might as well read it on my site, but I caution you to be extremely careful not to read too much into these comments. Machado’s father has an obvious incentive to pump up Manny’s market — it’s good for business when the Yankees and Dodgers are involved in the bidding — and get his son the best deal possible. The Dodgers haven’t been connected to Machado at all this winter. Now they’ve made an offer? Not sure about that. You’re welcome to believe what you want. This doesn’t strike me as all that reliable.

Yankees getting closer to trading Gray

According to Jack Curry and JonHeyman, the Yankees are getting closer to trading Sonny Gray and it could happen soon. They’re talking to several teams with the Giants newly into the mix. That makes sense. Their new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new pitching coach Curt Young know Sonny from their days with the Athletics. San Francisco seems perfectly positioned to buy low on Gray, then sign him long-term if he bounces back.

I have the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at roughly $228.5M following the Ottavino deal. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. My number includes a larger estimate for benefits and also something for in-season injury/September call-ups. Anyway, point is the Yankees are dangerously close to the $226M second luxury tier, if not over it already. Now that the Ottavino deal is in place, trading Gray and finding a cheaper swingman to get the payroll in order feels inevitable. For 40-man roster purposes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sonny moved before the Ottavino deal is made official.

Kahnle, Holder drawing interest

2018 Kahnle in picture form. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

According to Heyman, the Yankees are getting calls about righty relievers Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. I’m not surprised teams are looking to buy low on Kahnle. Seeing whether he can bounce back this year is worthwhile, but no way would I make him off-limits in trade talks. He’s owed $1.3875M this year and shedding that money could be a priority. Holder had a very nice 2018 and is both dirt cheap and under team control another five years. Of course teams are asking about him.

With Britton re-signed and Ottavino agreeing to a deal, the Yankees are in better position to consider trading away a reliever. It’s a position of depth. Trading Holder or especially Kahnle when you have Britton, Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Chad Green is an easy pill to swallow. The Yankees love their big velocity bat-missers and Holder is decidedly not that. Could they cash him in as a trade chip when his value is as high as it’s ever been and maybe as high as it’ll ever get? Hmmm.

Yankees trade Locastro to D’Backs

Earlier this week the Yankees traded utility man Tim Locastro to the Diamondbacks for lefty pitching prospect Ronald Roman and cash, the team announced. Locastro had been designated for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for LeMahieu. The Yankees got him from the Dodgers for 2015 third round pick Drew Finley earlier this offseason. Locastro, like Hanser Alberto, didn’t make it to Spring Training after being acquired earlier in the winter and spending a few weeks on the 40-man roster. I’m going to start calling this The Dan Otero Club.

Anyway, Roman is a just turned 17-year-old kid the D’Backs signed as an international free agent last July. He has not yet made his professional debut. He’ll do that this year. Roman was a small bonus signing and I can’t find any information on the kid. Sorry. Roman is almost certainly a player the Yankees wanted to sign last July but didn’t because either the D’Backs beat them to him (maybe) or because they ran out of bonus pool money (probably). Either way, he’s in the organization now. In a roundabout way the Yankees turned Finley, a busted prospect, into a young lottery ticket arm.

]]>http://riveraveblues.com/2019/01/rab-live-chat-421-183042/Scouting the Bargain Bin: Drew Pomeranzhttp://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RiverAveBlues/~3/dFlHBVtVThU/
Fri, 18 Jan 2019 17:00:41 +0000http://riveraveblues.com/?p=183012The Yankees are reportedly hoping to add another starting pitcher before the season begins, which both is and isn’t surprising. It is surprising, because they currently have six starters under contract for 2019, plus Jordan Montgomery slated to return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break. At the same time, it is not surprising because […]

The Yankees are reportedly hoping to add another starting pitcher before the season begins, which both is and isn’t surprising. It is surprising, because they currently have six starters under contract for 2019, plus Jordan Montgomery slated to return from Tommy John surgery around the All-Star break. At the same time, it is not surprising because Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, and CC Sabathia (who also just had heart surgery) make semi-frequent trips to the disabled list, and Sonny Gray is persona non grata. Oh, what a tangled web we weave.

Given that, it stands to reason that the Yankees may not want to invest heavily in an ‘in case of emergency’ starter; and, by the same thought process, there’s no guarantee that any pitcher on the market would accept such a role (or the pay scale that’s likely to come with it). And all of that is my roundabout way of saying that the job is most likely to go to a pitcher looking to rebuild his value and/or simply not in high demand.

So let’s talk about Drew Pomeranz.

Background

The 30-year-old Pomeranz was the fifth overall pick by the Cleveland Indians back in 2010, and, as one would expect from his draft position, was immediately considered a top prospect. He was ranked as the 61st best prospect in the game heading into 2011 by Baseball America, and climbed up to number 30 prior to the 2012 season. And he made his MLB debut in September of 2011, albeit as a member of the Colorado Rockies (he was the prize of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade).

Pomeranz was mostly an up-and-down arm for the next two years, struggling to find success or a straightforward role with the Rockies. He was dealt to the Oakland A’s for Brett Anderson in the 2013-14 off-season, and it was in Oakland that he would settle-in as a swingman – and thrive. He’s been a big-leaguer ever since, pitching for the Padres and, most recently, the Red Sox.

Recent Performance

A year ago, this section would have looked absolutely stellar. Unfortunately – or fortunately, for suitors that believe in his ability to bounce back – 2018 did happen. In the interest of capturing where my positivity that will follow comes from, take a look at Pomeranz’s production from his 2015 breakout forward:

G (GS)

IP

K%

BB%

GB%

HR/9

ERA

FIP

2014

20 (10)

69.0

23.0%

9.4%

45.7%

0.91

2.35

3.77

2015

53 (9)

86.0

23.0%

8.7%

42.2%

0.84

3.66

3.62

2016

31 (30)

170.2

26.5%

9.3%

46.2%

1.16

3.32

3.80

2017

32 (32)

173.2

23.5%

9.3%

43.2%

0.98

3.32

3.84

2018

26 (11)

74.0

19.2%

12.8%

37.1%

1.46

6.08

5.43

That’s four very good to great years in a row, followed-up by a big time stinker in 2018. So what the heck happened? In short: everything.

Pomeranz got a late start to the 2018 due to a forearm strain, and he never really got on-track after returning in late-April. His strikeout and groundball rates were way down, and his walk and home run rates were way up, and that’s … well … really bad. And he was hit way harder than he ever had been before:

You see those blue-ish marks? All of those mean that he was in the bottom-5% of the league in 2018. Again, that’s really bad. It’s so bad, in fact, that it’s difficult to mine the data for anything even bordering on positive, or suggestive of the year being overtly flukish. And this is why Pomeranz hasn’t been popping up in many rumors, if any, and why I’d hazard that he’ll end up signing on the cheap.

That being said, you cannot simply ignore the four previous seasons. He had success in the bullpen and in the rotation, and he thrived in the AL East for a year and a half. Above-average strikeout rates along with average groundball and walk rates is a recipe for at least a reasonable amount of success.

The Stuff

The vast majority of Pomeranz’s offerings are his four-seam fastball and curveball, which generally account for between 75 and 80% of his selection. However, he also throws a sinker, a cutter, and a change-up. Here’s how they look velocity-wise:

And the rightmost dots on the graph give us what may well be the reason for Pomeranz’s struggles last year: his velocity dropped by over a MPH on everything but his infrequently used change-up. His elite spin rates (especially on his curveball, which is among the best in the game) remained intact, per Statcast, but nothing had the same oomph. And, as you can tell from his walk rate above, he couldn’t locate, either.

Pomeranz blamed the lack of velocity and struggles with location on rust and mechanical issues, which seems fair. I’m putting off the injury talk for a bit longer, but he did miss a significant amount of time last season with a couple DL stints, and he also may’ve been tipping pitches. That doesn’t exactly make him an appealing option – but it must just be fixable.

Injury History

Here’s the elephant in the room: Pomeranz opened the season on the DL with a forearm/flexor strain. That doesn’t sound good. And then he spent almost all of June and July on the DL once again with biceps tendinitis. Both injuries impacted his left arm, too. And that’s not encouraging.

This isn’t the first time that he has dealt with an injury to his pitching arm, either. When the Red Sox acquired him from the Padres in 2016, there was a mild uproar when it turned out that the Padres didn’t disclose information about Pomeranz receiving some manner of treatment for his arm. In fact, Padres GM A.J. Preller was suspended for this offense. Pomeranz would end up having stem cell treatment for what was described as a flexor tendon issue that off-season.

And that came just a year after he had “minor” shoulder surgery for a clavicle resection. Add in a broken wrist in 2014 and biceps tendinitis in 2013, and it seems as if Pomeranz has never been truly healthy for a full season. He managed to make 30-plus starts in 2016 and 2017, though, and you can’t take that away from him.

Contract Estimate

Given the way this off-season has unfolded, just imagine me shrugging here. There are a variety of one-year pillow contract estimates floating around the internet, and that’s probably what Pomeranz will end up with. I’d assume it’ll be a low base salary with tons of incentives, for what it’s worth.

Does He Make Sense for the Yankees?

In my mind, the Yankees desire for another starter is more akin to adding legitimate rotation depth than adding an actual starter. And, even with his injury issues and rocky 2018, I think that Pomeranz is all but a perfect fit for what the team could use. My rapid-fire reasoning:

He’s had success in the AL East

He’s a lefty

His curveball is among the best in the game

He has plenty of experience as a swingman

He’ll come cheap

I wouldn’t expect Pomeranz to repeat his 2016 and 2017, but I think that 2018 can largely be chalked-up as a lost season. It doesn’t sound as though he was ever really healthy, and there are plenty of rumblings that the Red Sox rushed him back not once, but twice last year. Give him an off-season of rest, ease him into the team as a long-reliever, and have him be first in-line for a spot start. And I genuinely believe he can be an asset in such a role – he’ll be 30 for the entirety of the season, after all, so it feels too early to write him off.