I thought I'd make this more general than specific since a lot of things happen that would probably only be 3-4 posts but are non the less interesting.

On that note, New Zealand is having elections in 2 months, we have the MMP system like Germany. Our current goverment is center right and has enough seats to rule alone and is polling that way now, with maybe needing a few seats from a small party to form goverment.

Out left is in a shit show.

The major left party is polling mid to low twenties, the Greens their usual allies are polling way up at 15, but that has all come at the cost of Labour making a very unhappy let. Add to that Labours leader just quit under pressure (he never should of had the job), all I can see happening is Labour grabbing a few votes off the Greens and not damaging the right.

The greens are doing well because one of their two leaders admitted to lying to the goverment about her living conditions to get more welfare for years, and promising a massive welfare increase for everyone with no strings attached, currently you must seek work and take offered jobs.

What the true problem of the left is, Labour and Greens must go together to have a chance of goverment, but many many labour voters (blue collar like my Dad) refuse to vote for any party who would work with the current Green party. Life long labour voters literally have no one to vote for.

And our Trump-lite, New Zealand first is polling at 11 and we all hope like hell they arent the king maker.

I wish we did what Germany did and do center left/right unity and have the Green lead the opposition. But i highly doubt that will happen.

What does defeat mean to you?

Nothing. It will never come. Death before defeat. You can kill me, destroy my soul, destroy my magic, but you cannot defeat me. I don’t bend or break. I end, if I meet a foe capable of it. Victory is in forcing the opponent to back down. I do not. And you may destroy my magic, but not before I destroy everything of this world that I can…including your magic and soul. There is no defeat.

So... My country, Peru, is undergoing a lot of corruption troubles related to Odebrecht. Even if they keep denying, most presidential candidates took a little piece of that cake. A few million pieces, if you will. Hell, in the last thirty years, the only one without that chip was the Interim one after the fucking Fujimori.

But, I like to think that at least we are not Venezuela. That place is a powder keg.

Yeah i have been following Venuzela for years as I used to work in Colombia. It is almost impressive how far and fast it fell.

What does defeat mean to you?

Nothing. It will never come. Death before defeat. You can kill me, destroy my soul, destroy my magic, but you cannot defeat me. I don’t bend or break. I end, if I meet a foe capable of it. Victory is in forcing the opponent to back down. I do not. And you may destroy my magic, but not before I destroy everything of this world that I can…including your magic and soul. There is no defeat.

Yo dawgs, what's up with Labour and Ardern in NZ? Can someone give a layout or some sources to get me up to speed? I know absolutely nothing about NZ politics.

Last edited: Sep 9, 2017

"every song i write feels like the last song I'll ever write, and the moment it's done I fully forget how I did any of it lol. if artists were fully honest in interviews half our answers to Qs about 'process' would probably be 'i don't know dude'" -mitski"I'm surprised to hear you say this because of how frequently you rightly attribute your success to and advocate for the hard work approach... yet songwriting is unexplainable magic? How do you reconcile these two things?" -bystander"listen you learn your craft as much as you can so that when the magic comes swimming down the river you have the net to catch it" -mitski"Appreciate this intellectual honesty. I think it is true of investing theses too..." -anonymous VC

Yo dawgs, what's up with Labour and Ardern in NZ? Can someone give a layout or some sources to get me up to speed? I know absolutely nothing about NZ politics.

Click to expand...

The Labour party changed leaders just over a month ago, the previous leader stepping down due to abysmal polls. The change in support for Labour, the left wing party, was astonishing, to say the least. In the poll after the leadership changed, Labour jumped 13 points from 24% to 37%. This has continued since then, with the latest poll putting Labour on 43%, and National on 39%. These are 10-year highs and lows for both parties. This website gives a snapshot of the polls, but it's averaged out over all them. This change has been fascinating to observe, especially considering the increase in support hasn't come with a notable change in policy.

To give some background context, since 2009, Labour has had an abysmal showing in elections. The leaders selected were all middle aged white men with little ability to inspire their constituents. They were perceived as tired, out of touch and a government that had no fiscal discipline. These perceptions were far from the truth, but John Key, the prime minister since 2009 was a very charismatic man and was very popular. Of course, in his finance trading days his nickname was "the smiling assassin", so take from that what you will. There have been scandals, such as the dirty politics affair last election (which is worth glancing over if you're interested) but he still managed to win the election comfortably. Shockingly, he resigned at the end of last year 9 months before the election. Generally, family reasons are cited, but I also think he got out while the going was good. National has run a generally conservative government (probably very left wing by US standards, but not by ours), in the interests of fiscal discipline social services such as health, education and welfare have been cut drastically and the cracks are really starting to show at the seams.

Regardless, Bill English, previous Minister of Finance, took over as leader of the National Party. He is a details man, good at his job, but does not have the same charisma John Key had. Regardless, Labour had even less, and the election was looking like it was unlosable for National. However, my opinion is that discontent has been stirring for many a year now and that it just needed a bit of a push for it to come to the surface. I was convinced before the leadership change, that this would happen at the next election, but the leadership change was the catalyst needed for the left to come out in force. Jacinda Adern, the new leader of the labour party is a relatively young (37) woman who is by all accounts a breath of fresh air. She has a compelling personality, speaks well, has not made any big mistakes, and has managed to inspire the left in New Zealand based on a campaign on values and ideals (and backed up by relatively solid economic fundementals).

Child poverty, deteriorating quality of our waterways due to the intensification of farming (especially dairy) since the 1980s market reforms, housing affordability, and the economy are all key issues this election. There interesting tension surrounding the economy, in that by all international measures, we have a 'rock star' economy which is the envy of other countries, but at the same time, people don't feel it at all. Just as the OECD released a report stating that economic indicators suggested that NZer's enjoy a high quality of life, UNICEF released a report revealing that NZ has the highest rate of teen suicide in the developed world, a rate so high that it lifts the global average, and is three times higher than Australia, our closest neighbour. Here's a bar graph. The point being made here, is that while indicators suggest we are doing well, people on the ground aren't feeling it, and this is exactly what Jacinda Adern is campaigning on.

Speaking from a wider perspective, Adern is not a leader such as Corbyn with radical structural change in mind. I expect her to be a continuation of third-way politics, with bandaids being applied to the structural problems associated with neoliberal economics that will benefit the less well off in the short term. Key factors such as economic inequality are unlikely to change markedly at this stage, but the lower socioeconomic classes will benefit greatly from increased funding to social services such as health, education and welfare.

Last week before the elections and it's still to close to call. And once again polls are proving themselves wildly unreliable.

I give it to National still as they usually do better than polling as labour voters don't actually vote that much.

What does defeat mean to you?

Nothing. It will never come. Death before defeat. You can kill me, destroy my soul, destroy my magic, but you cannot defeat me. I don’t bend or break. I end, if I meet a foe capable of it. Victory is in forcing the opponent to back down. I do not. And you may destroy my magic, but not before I destroy everything of this world that I can…including your magic and soul. There is no defeat.

Half the votes in and New Zealand breathes a sign of relief. i was right that labour voters dont actually vote so much as bitch.

Unfortunatly we avoid one cult of personaility only to get another one with the coalition partner beimg a racist dickwad.

What does defeat mean to you?

Nothing. It will never come. Death before defeat. You can kill me, destroy my soul, destroy my magic, but you cannot defeat me. I don’t bend or break. I end, if I meet a foe capable of it. Victory is in forcing the opponent to back down. I do not. And you may destroy my magic, but not before I destroy everything of this world that I can…including your magic and soul. There is no defeat.

A weak three way goverment with a strong opposition... What a shit show.

What does defeat mean to you?

Nothing. It will never come. Death before defeat. You can kill me, destroy my soul, destroy my magic, but you cannot defeat me. I don’t bend or break. I end, if I meet a foe capable of it. Victory is in forcing the opponent to back down. I do not. And you may destroy my magic, but not before I destroy everything of this world that I can…including your magic and soul. There is no defeat.

Catalunya just announced themselves independent from Spain. The Spanish government in turn took away their right to govern themselves as a region, and the members of parliament could be facing jailtime, as their votes apparently go against their constitution.

This has been a couple weeks in the making. Kinda didn't think it'd happen anymore tbh.

Looks like a political ploy. 82/135 parliamentarians voted, 70 for. A slim majority representing 47% of constituents on an issue of rank normally requiring 2/3s vote.

So now it's going to be, "Catalonia and whose army?"

I suppose the answer is: the army of public opinion. Rajoy has a fine line to walk here.

Last edited: Oct 27, 2017

"every song i write feels like the last song I'll ever write, and the moment it's done I fully forget how I did any of it lol. if artists were fully honest in interviews half our answers to Qs about 'process' would probably be 'i don't know dude'" -mitski"I'm surprised to hear you say this because of how frequently you rightly attribute your success to and advocate for the hard work approach... yet songwriting is unexplainable magic? How do you reconcile these two things?" -bystander"listen you learn your craft as much as you can so that when the magic comes swimming down the river you have the net to catch it" -mitski"Appreciate this intellectual honesty. I think it is true of investing theses too..." -anonymous VC

I've got a large number of friends who're Scottish independence supporters, and they're going wild on facebook about this. Its ridiculous. As far as I understand it, they're basing this all on a totally flawed referendum that was blatantly boycotted by non-supporters, and whose result was corrupted by interference.

I think the Spanish Government should let them have a referendum, its a democracy and the polls seem to say it'd be a close run thing either way. But the Catalonian Government shouldn't be basing their actions on the assumption that they actually have the level of support the results of the referendum indicated.

This is going to be a total shit show for the man on the street, with ideologues on both sides facing off against each other at the cost of the actual citizenry.

'You may not be good at making friends,' whispered Parax. 'But by Heaven you are second to none
when it comes to making enemies.' Sword in the Storm, by David Gemmell

I've got a large number of friends who're Scottish independence supporters, and they're going wild on facebook about this. Its ridiculous. As far as I understand it, they're basing this all on a totally flawed referendum that was blatantly boycotted by non-supporters, and whose result was corrupted by interference.

I think the Spanish Government should let them have a referendum, its a democracy and the polls seem to say it'd be a close run thing either way. But the Catalonian Government shouldn't be basing their actions on the assumption that they actually have the level of support the results of the referendum indicated.

This is going to be a total shit show for the man on the street, with ideologues on both sides facing off against each other at the cost of the actual citizenry.

Click to expand...

To allow the referendum, they would've to change the Constitution. Something wildly unpopular anywhere else but Catalonia. The main center-left party got beaten badly by entertaining allying with the separatists. People are still incredibly traumatized and angry about some separatists (2003 was only 14 years ago after all).