Oct 6, 2011

More predictions on the Nobel Prize in Economics

"If the bettors in a long-running pool are right, Harvard University’s Al Roth is going to get a call from Sweden early Monday morning telling him that he’s won the Nobel in economics."

"So far, he has garnered 8.87% of the bets in a $1-a-wager pool run by Harvard graduate students on who will win the prize (properly “The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel“). A noted game theorist, Mr. Roth helped design, among other things, the systems for matching kidney donors with patients and New York City students with schools."

"Close behind is Yale University’s Robert Shiller, with 8.16% of the bets. The father of behavioral finance — a celebrated 1981 paper by Mr. Shiller struck an early blow against efficient markets hypothesis – he was also sounded warnings on both the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble."

"Next is the University of San Diego’s Halbert White, with 6.38%. Little known outside the field, Mr. White pioneered statistical and modeling techniques now widely used by economists."

"Other top bets: University of Chicago Booth School of Business behaviorist Richard Thaler, Harvard macroeconomist Robert Barro and University of Chicago econometricianLars Hansen." Source