The SNP prepares to back off the EU – for now

EFTA Triangle? The European Free Trade Association provides Nicola Sturgeon with a route to reconcile indyref2 and Brexit

March 17, 2017

Being seen to go cold on the European Union will annoy many in the SNP’s mainstream but Nicola Sturgeon’s personal standing and unchallenged authority should be enough to pacify critics, says Murray Ritchie.

The Scottish National Party’s long commitment to the European Union appears likely soon to be removed from its strategy for a second independence referendum.

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is uncomfortable with the fact that a significant number of SNP supporters – perhaps more than one third of them – voted for Brexit.

Their reasoning is that swapping suffocating rule by the United Kingdom (UK) for rule by the sovereignty-grabbing, bureaucratic EU is pointless.

Recognising this danger to the independence cause has prompted Sturgeon and her closest supporters to amend their long-term plan. By turning their backs – if only temporarily – on the EU they are likely to start talking up membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).

Membership of EFTA brings with it membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) and the EU’s single market – the SNP’s ultimate goal. But it keeps the EU with its perceived political agenda at arm’s length as Norway, the most prominent EFTA member, has shown.

But joining the EEA before Brexit looks like coming too late for Scotland now that Theresa May, the prime minister, has blocked indyref2 before the UK, including Scotland, leaves. “Now is not the time,” she insisted yesterday.

When Scotland voted 62 per cent to 38 per cent to Remain in the EU and England and Wales voted Leave, the die was cast for a second independence referendum. The SNP had pledged in their manifesto to call indyref2 if there was a “material change” affecting Scotland after the EU referendum.

But within that 62 per cent were many enthusiastic independistas who are also eurosceptics. Sturgeon calculates that, while they may be anti-EU, they are not against the EU’s single market. By parking the EU issue until after indyref2 she believes she can attract all those voters in favour of independence whether they are eurosceptic or not.

And then some time in the future, after independence, there would be a debate about whether to enter the EU or stay with the EEA. There seems acceptance now that an independent Scotland would not be granted automatic entry – or re-entry – to the EU in any case.

Current indications are that Sturgeon will not seek to have an indyref2 in defiance of the UK government. There would be too much controversy over its legality. Similarly, May appears to realise that a blank refusal to agree indyref2 at any time would inflame nationalist indignation and be self-defeating.

Polls currently show support for Scottish independence at an all-time high. One had the two sides split 50-50 last week.

But as the debate has intensified, expressions of eurosceptic doubt have become more insistent. One long-time critic of the SNP leadership, the veteran left-wing campaigner Jim Sillars, called for Scottish membership of the European Free Trade Association and thus the EEA and single market instead of the EU.

His voice is especially irritating to the SNP establishment because he was the architect of the party’s successful Independence in Europe plan many years ago. But on this issue he will be listened to.

His argument now is that the EU would interfere with Scottish sovereignty to an extent that did not exist in times past. And Sillars, who says he would abstain if an indyref2 meant EU membership, is respected by the more radical elements in the party.

He is exactly the type of nationalist the SNP needs to win over if it is to achieve the modest swing required for a successful referendum result.

Being seen to go cold on the EU will, of course, annoy many in the SNP’s mainstream but Sturgeon’s personal standing and unchallenged authority should be enough to pacify critics. She is already at pains to say she still wants Scotland in the EU – but for strategic reasons perhaps just not quite yet.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15