The 2016 Tropical Cyclone Season has been well underway since January with Hurricane Alex and then Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. Sunday morning Tropical Depression #3 formed just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. TD3 will move north and northeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the cyclone should become Tropical Storm Colin later this afternoon/evening. Although warm sea temperatures exist in the Gulf, moderate windshear will limit intensification of the cyclone to a slow pace. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) brings Colin ashore in the Apalachee Bay area in the northeast Gulf near Steinhatchee, Florida, Monday evening with winds of 50mph gusting to 60mph and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

After landfall the NHC forecast takes Colin rapidly across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia and into the Atlantic by sunrise Tuesday morning. Eventually Tropical Storm Warnings are anticipated for the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. Colin should continue to slowly strengthen and continue a rapid northeast movement into the open waters of the Atlantic. Windshear may dictate a slight adjustment of the track to the east - but not by much - perhaps from Cedar Key to Jacksonville.

The primary threat from Colin will be heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday over the entire Florida peninsula with rainfall totals up to six or seven inches in the northern portion of the peninsula, three to five inches in the central portion of the peninsula and two or three inches in the south. Because northeast Florida and the entire Florida peninsula will be in the eastern sector of the tropical storm, isolated tornadoes are likely from mid-day Monday through late Tuesday afternoon. Windshear will make Colin a lopsided system with almost all of the associated weather restricted to the eastern sector of the tropical cyclone. Brisk south to southwest winds are likely over the peninsula Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 35mph and perhaps an isolated gust to 45mph in Central Florida asociated with strong rainsqualls. Localized flooding is likely with this heavy rainfall event.
ED

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