The 1970-71 offseason: Actual deals we will not make

Unlike the actual Indians, we didn’t leave Scheinblum in the triple-A for all of 1970 while he was dismantling the American Association. Dismantling? Well, leading that league in runs, hits, RBIs, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Yes, dismantling.

Instead, we called him up in mid-July, and experienced some of that Scheinblum-hitting-his-best action for ourselves over the second half. And therefore we aren’t interested in selling him off to anyone in October.

April 5, 1971: The Cleveland Indians signed pitcher Camilo Pascual as a free agent.

We know the Cubs wanted Pepitone, as in actuality they purchased him in mid-1970, and we also know they were willing to deal Wilhelm and Metzger, as they traded both for token return that fall.

Pepitone has had another good year for our Yankees in 1970 (on the field, at least; otherwise he was as chronic a headache as ever). But we’ll deal him now because we have an extraordinarily powerful rookie named Tony Solaita ready to take over at first base.

The ageless Wilhelm had yet another good year in 1970, and we think he can help in our bullpen. And we’ll give the light-hitting but very rangy rookie shortstop Metzger the opportunity to win our first-string job.

The inspiration for this blockbuster is, of course, Boston’s October 1970 trade of Tony C. to the Angels, which we examined here:

The Tony Conigliaro story is among the most fascinating, and most poignant, in baseball history. After completing the long hard road back from his horrific, career-threatening 1967 beaning, to emerge in 1970 with new career highs in home runs and RBIs, Conigliaro’s reward from his beloved hometown Red Sox was a trade.

And harsh as that was, the return Red Sox GM Dick O’Connell (who tended to be a pretty canny trader) yielded for not only Tony C., but also their primary catcher (Moses), was almost insultingly modest: a sound-but-hardly-imposing reliever in Ken Tatum, and a good second base prospect in Griffin.

O’Connell’s logic in endeavoring to re-balance his roster by introducing more run prevention skill into the mix was sound enough (the Red Sox had led the world in home runs in both 1969 and ’70, but finished in third place both seasons), but it did seem as though he could have held out for a more substantial price in exchange for Conigliaro.

Though the young slugger was something of a one-dimensional talent, and through a combination of circumstances was probably more famous than his playing accomplishments warranted, it was the case that Conigliaro’s eyesight problem appeared to be fully in the past, and even with the major injury interruption he looked to be on target for a possible Hall of Fame career: After all, he’d belted 160 home runs through the age of 25, and would seem to be just entering his power-hitting prime.

As to whether the Red Sox knew or suspected that Conigliaro’s vision would deteriorate, there certainly wasn’t anything in his 1970 performance that would indicate it: he’d finished the season red-hot, whacking 6 doubles and 10 homers in September. Nonetheless, O’Connell unloaded him less than two weeks after the end of the regular season.

For our part, while we agree with O’Connell’s assessment that the Red Sox have sufficient outfield surplus to warrant trading the elder Conigliaro brother, we’ll shop around and seek a more helpful deal than the one upon which O’Connell pulled the trigger.

We note that in the 1970-71 offseason, the actual Red Sox and White Sox swung two trades, in which Alvarado, second baseman Mike Andrews, relief pitcher Vicente Romo, and minor league first baseman Tony Muser went from Boston to Chicago in exchange for Aparicio, Josephson, and second-tier pitcher Danny Murphy. So knowing what we do about what the Angels and White Sox were endeavoring to accomplish in these transactions, we think we can make everyone happy.

The Angels expend what they actually did, plus the grade-B pitching prospects Reynolds and Washburn, and gain Conigliaro, along with the useful catcher Josephson in place of Moses. The White Sox expend the two key players they actually did, and gain Alvarado, along with the second baseman Griffin in place of Andrews, and the reliever Tatum in place of Romo.

For our Red Sox, we’re satisfied with netting Aparicio, who perfectly meets our most glaring need, while not having to surrender Andrews, who despite his limitations is a highly productive Fenway Park-style player and still just 27 years old. Certainly we understand that the projected long-term value delivery from Conigliaro dwarfs that of Aparicio, but we believe this trade makes us a better ball club for the next year or two, the window in which we anticipate the Orioles will come back to earth and a team winning 95 games will have a realistic shot at capturing an AL East flag. We think we can be that team.

On this date, the actual Indians traded Duke Sims to the Dodgers for Lamb and pitcher Alan Foster. Our Indians aren’t about to do that, so instead we’ll send the Dodgers a lesser catcher and receive a lesser return, as Foster is a superior talent to Lamb.

The 1971 season: Deals we will invoke

It was actually the Milwaukee Brewers who had Koegel and traded him to Philadelphia along with a secondary minor league pitcher in exchange for the multi-talented Briggs. Our Yankees don’t have the faintest idea what the Phillies are thinking, but we’ll say “yes” before they change their minds.

The actual trade on this day was Woods from the Yankees to the Expos for Swoboda. We’re assuming in our scenario that Milwaukee would have Woods (having traded Tom Tresh for him in 1969, as the Yankees actually did).

Moreover, in June of ’71 the Yankees actually traded Tepedino and Mitchell to the Brewers for Danny Walton, but our Yanks already have Walton.

So we’ll let both Milwaukee and Montreal get the players they want, and we’ll send the slumping Walton down to the minors and replace him with Swoboda.

June 22, 1971: The New York Yankees released pitcher Hoyt Wilhelm.

It’s been a miserable spring for the 48-year-old knuckleballer, struggling with a knee injury. We think it’s the end of the line.

1971 season results

Yankees

We aren’t standing pat with the roster that won 95 games in 1970. We’re introducing rookies in three starting roles: Solaita at first base, Metzger at shortstop, and right-hander Steve Kline in the rotation. When Briggs arrives in late April, we’ll install him as the platoon right fielder.

In his third full big-league season, 25-year-old Bobby Murcer bursts out with a superstar-caliber performance. We expected Briggs to produce nicely, but at 27 he delightfully surprises with a power-hitting breakthrough.

Solaita struggles, but another rookie, mid-season call-up Ron Blomberg, takes over the first base job in the second half with lusty hitting. With these lefty power bats leading the way, our offense is better than it was in 1970, indeed second in the league in OPS+.

But we have some issues on the mound. Steve Hargan, the sensational comeback surprise of 1970, fizzles again. And Wilhelm isn’t the only reliever to struggle, as Lindy McDaniel, so brilliant last season, takes a beating this time around.

Thus our pitching, such a strength in 1970, is just league-average in ’71. We’re still a good ball club, but we win eight fewer games than last year, and drop to third place, in a one-step-forward, two-steps-back kind of a season.

Red Sox

Installing Aparicio at shortstop, we’re hopeful that we’ve fit the final piece of the puzzle together to become a serious contender. Ken Harrelson is back to handle first base, allowing us to shift superstar Carl Yastrzemski back to left field. Young Billy Conigliaro is set to take over for his brother in right. With the big bats of Reggie Smith in center and Rico Petrocelli at third, and still more power emanating from Mike Andrews at second base and Frank Fernandez behind the plate, we’re anticipating a top-to-bottom lineup of rare quality.

Our pitching is a concern, no doubt. But it was better than average in 1970, and if either or both among young left-handers Ken Brett and Bill Lee step forward, it could be better than that this year.

The list of disappointments is so long it’s hard to know where to begin. How about with Aparicio, who’d played so well for the White Sox in 1970, but now suddenly is showing all of his 37 years? Or Harrelson, who hits so anemically that he just up and retires from baseball at the age of 29 in late June?

Yastrzemski slumps dreadfully, delivering his least productive performance since his rookie year a decade ago. Conigliaro isn’t bad, but he hits with less authority than in 1970. Andrews is nagged by injuries, and Fernandez, a poor hitter for average to begin with, sees his BA crater by 50 points.

Lee does succeed, but Brett regresses badly. Jim Lonborg returns to the starting rotation, but with mediocre effectiveness; among the starting corps, only Sonny Siebert pitches well.

Rarely does a roster of such abundant talent deliver such uninspired results. Far from emerging as a challenger to Baltimore’s dominance of the division, our 84 wins are the fewest we’ve achieved in the four frustrating seasons following the 1967 championship.

There is one silver lining amid the gloom. Being so far out of the race, in September we grant liberal playing time to a large cohort of promising prospects, and nearly all of them perform impressively. We eagerly anticipate a wholesale infusion of new blood in 1972.

Indians

Looking to build on the progress exhibited last year, we haven’t undertaken significant restructuring. The key change is in defensive alignment: with Tony Horton absent (and sadly, never to return), we’re shifting George Scott from third base to first, and Graig Nettles from right field to third base. This should dramatically improve the infield defense.

In the offensive half of the inning, we see some general decline from 1970 performance, but nothing too bad. Nettles improves with the bat and emerges as a defensive superstar at third base; there is no better corner infield combination with the leather than Nettles and Scott. Overall we present a lineup that’s far from championship-caliber, but it’s competent.

But then there is that other half of the inning. Pitching, the key Cleveland strength for nearly a decade, is anything but that this year, as the staff collapses in disarray.

The problems start at the top, as 28-year-old ace Sam McDowell falls far short of the elite-level performance he’d maintained in 1968-69-70. Control was never Sudden Sam’s forte, but he hasn’t shown this kind of difficulty in locating the strike zone since he was a teenager.

And beyond McDowell it just gets worse. We provide young pitcher after young pitcher with the opportunity to seize the moment and make a statement, but all too often the statement is, “HELP!”

Thus for the second time in three years, our Indians slip and fall. Our progress in restoring the competitiveness of the Cleveland franchise is thrown for a loss.

Comments

Steve:
If I’m not crazy, I believe Yaz was given a $500,000 / 3-year deal over the winter after having an incredible 1967-1970 four-year run. He didn’t exactly rip the cover off the ball from 1971-1973; probably a portent of what free agency’s eventual multi-year deals would bring the owners.

I don’t know if Yastrzemski’s contract status had anything to do with his big 1971-72 slump, but at the time the Boston fandom was furious with him, and he endured quite a bit of booing at Fenway Park. As his long career progressed, he regained the support of the Red Sox faithful, and indeed was raised to the status of demigod that he holds to this day. But there was a point in his career when more than a few people (rightly or not) questioned his hustle and effort. Jim Bouton commented on this in Ball Four in 1969.