Category Archives: Super Bowl

After a mediocre season of NFL picks and a 5-5 playoff run, it’s time for our Super Bowl 46 pick. Let’s break down the game as we do.

Tom Brady will be the key to a Patriots win in Super Bowl 46, via cbsboston.com

The question that has stayed at the forefront of our minds over the past two weeks is which team is best at something. While many of the matchups seem to favor the Giants, we believe the Patriots will throw the ball better than the Giants do anything. So the question is whether the Pats’ success in the passing game – which we believe will happen, at least to some degree – will overcome its shortcomings elsewhere.

So while Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and company may harass Brady, and while Eli Manning to Victor Cruz may find room in the Patriots secondary, the key to the game will be Brady finding Wes Welker and his two tight ends. The big plays in the Patriots passing game will mean more than the sacks from Big Blue or the Giants’ offense.

That will lead to a Patriots win. That’s not the popular pick – the bets in Vegas are leaning toward the Giants, and the majority of analysts we hear lean toward the Giants as well. But we’re going to go with the Patriots to win and cover the three-point spread.

For National Football Authority, we break down the key role that wide receiver Victor Cruz played in the Giants’ run to Super Bowl 46. How did Cruz rise to such an important role against the 49ers? What role will he play against the Patriots? Click here to find out.

Here are thoughts breaking down the Packers’ 31-25 victory over the Steelers in Super Bowl 45.

*Aaron Rodgers wasn’t the surgeon he had been at other points in the playoffs (most notably against the Falcons), but he had a terrific game with 304 passing yards and three touchdowns. His 24-of-39 performance would have been even better without at least 5 drops by Packers wideouts, which says even more about how Rodgers played. Rodgers made the leap this year, and the playoffs affirmed that he’s among the league’s best this year.
*Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, threw two interceptions that his team couldn’t overcome. The first pick, which Nick Collins returned to a touchdown, wasn’t entirely Big Ben’s fault, since he couldn’t get anything on the throw due to pressure from Howard Green. But the second pick was into double coverage. Both picks resulted in Green Bay TDs, so it’s fair to say that Ben’s failings were part of the reason the Steelers lost.
*Not to toot our own horn, but our pre-game pick ‘em post was eerily accurate. The running game wasn’t really a factor on either side of the ball, although both James Starks (11 for 52) and Rashard Mendenhall (14 for 63) ran OK. Mendenhall’s fumble, however, was another key mistake. But the crucial matchup of the game was the fact that the Steelers couldn’t stop the Packers’ four-WR set. Rodgers consistently found Jordy Nelson (nine catches, 140 yards, TD, plus three drops), and Greg Jennings (4-64-2) made a few huge plays, and the formation kept Troy Polamalu in coverage, which limited his impact. On the other side, the Steelers got some big plays from Mike Wallace (9-89-1), but the Packers were able to clamp down on the Steelers, especially early. Only after Charles Woodson suffered a broken collarbone and Sam Shields had to leave for a while with an injury did the Steelers really gash the Pack through the air.
*The defenses didn’t cause a ton of havoc on either side. The Steelers got decent pressure on Rodgers, and more importantly kept him inside the pocket, but they got just three sacks. (Lamarr Woodley did continue his streak of having a sack in every postseason game he’s played.) The Packers had just one sack from Frank Zombo, but they did knock down a few passes on the line. Clay Matthews, the chief mischief-maker, spent as much time spying on Roethlisberger as actually blitzing, which is part of the reason why Ben had just one run for a first down. (Props to Troy Aikman, by the way, for pointing out the Matthews spy strategy early on.) But the Packers’ defensive line didn’t make an impact aside from Green’s big play.
*Mike Lombardi of the NFL network always refers to missed field goals as turnovers, and Shaun Suisham’s shanked 52-yarder in the third quarter was an unforced turnover. Suisham has never been a consistent kicker, so the idea of having him try a 50-plus field goal in a key spot was wrong-headed by Mike Tomlin. It cost the Steelers at least 22 yards (and maybe 30-35 yards) of field position, and also let the Packers out from under the thumb at a time when they were really struggling. It didn’t turn the game, but it was a major miscalculation.
*The Packers had a ton of drops. Nelson had three, including two that would have been for huge gains. James Jones dropped a potential touchdown – he’s had a ton of big drops in the postseason – and showed why, despite his speed and potential, he’s a No. 3 receiver and a starter. Still, Jones had five catches for 50 yards and made an impact after Donald Driver left the game with a foot injury.
*Unsung heroes: Antwaan Randle El had a huge 37-yard catch, another first-down catch, and a run for a two-point conversion for the Steelers, which was huge after rookie Emmanuel Sanders had to leave the game with a foot injury. Bush of the Packers was forced into more coverage responsibility after Woodson’s injury, and he had a big hit on Roethlisberger and added an interception early on without giving up a ton of big plays. Desmond Bishop of the Packers was all over the field, finishing with eight tackles and three tackles for loss, along with a fumble recovery. He was far more of a factor than A.J. Hawk, and given the fact that he started the year behind Nick Barnett, Bishop’s development was a huge factor. And C Doug Legursky, who replaced Maurkice Pouncey at center for the Steelers, held up just fine. He never got bowled over in pass protection, and the Steelers actually got him out in space to block a few times too (including the first two plays of the game).
*Thanks for reading all season. We more than doubled last year’s readership, and we’re thankful. But just because the season’s over, don’t stop visiting. We’ll be up and at it for the rest of the week, breaking down the Hall of Fame election, tracking franchise player tags, and commenting on the Titans’ coaching hire, among other things. For the latest, check back at www.footballrelativity.com or follow on Twitter for post updates and more discussions.

*Neither team will be able to run the ball all that well with their running backs. We see Rashard Mendenhall fighting for 55 yards or so on like 17 carries, and we suspect Aaron Rodgers may outrush any Packers back – James Starks, Brandon Jackson, John Kuhn, and company. The running game is not going to be what decides the game.
*A huge question is whether either offensive line can effectively block their opponents. The Packers’ line isn’t great, and rookie right tackle Bryan Bulaga has given up his fair share of sacks this season. So we believe James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley will get a few hits in on Rodgers. But we have the same doubts that the Steelers can block Clay Matthews coming off the corner as well as B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins inside. The Maurkice Pouncey injury really hurts the Steelers here, because the Pack’s playmaking interior players will be troublesome throughout the game. Still, though, since both teams can create pressure, the big plays out of the pass rushes should basically even out.
*So where do we find a big advantage? It’s in coverage. The Packers have three terrific cornerbacks in Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams, and Sam Shields, and Shields’ emergence will be a key in keeping Mike Wallace from breaking free deep in the secondary. We believe the Packers can keep Ben Roethlisberger and company from throwing the ball all over the place. But we don’t have the same confidence about the Steelers. Troy Polamalu is a great player, but he’s better freelancing than in coverage, and the Packers can force Polamalu into coverage by using a four-wide receiver set. Ike Taylor can be trouble blitzing off the corner, but he’s not an elite cover corner either. The same is true from Bryant McFadden. We just see Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson breaking free more than once. If the Packers can keep the Steelers blocked for the most part, or if Rodgers can keep the chains moving with his legs when pressured, then Green Bay will eventually beat the Steelers through the air. And that’s where the game will be won.

Each year, as we begin to preview the Super Bowl, we try to anticipate which players will become the big-play makers of the big game. (You can see last year’s post here, and the Super Bowl 43 edition here.) As always, we’re on a 10-point scale where 10 points is epic and 1 point is someone who is a possible playmaker in a remote situation. We’ve left out offensive linemen, because it’s so hard to distinguish them individually because they are meant to function as a unit.

If you think we missed someone, add a comment and where you think that Packer or Steeler fits in.

10 – QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers - This is Rodgers’ chance at the spotlight, and we believe he’s up to the challenge. Given the state of the Packers’ running game, the Packers’ chances rest on their quarterback, which means that he’s the man on the spot. He can make big plays with both his arm and his legs, and he has done just that in his playoff drive this season. Does he have one more game left?

9 – QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Mike Wallace, Steelers – Big Ben has two Super Bowl rings, but no MVP trophies, which is a little odd for a quarterback. You can’t say he’s played poorly, because he led a game-winning drive two years ago and hit Santonio Holmes for the winning TD. But Roethlisberger has set up Holmes and Hines Ward for Super Bowl MVP honors. So while Big Ben will play a huge role, the pattern indicates that if the Steelers win, it will be a receiver who gets the award. Our money is on Wallace, who has perhaps the best deep speed in the game. Wallace has been the focus of defenses in the playoffs thus far, but the Packers let Johnny Knox and Devin Hester break free deep in the NFC championship game, and if they can do it, Wallace can too. If the Steelers win, it’ll be correlated to a big game from Wallace.

8 – OLBs James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley, Steelers – Harrison made a huge play in the last Super Bowl with an epic 100-yard interception return for a touchdown. And Harrison remains a huge force getting to the quarterback. But Woodley, who has compiled a sack in each and every postseason game in his career, will get to Rodgers at least once, and so he’s just as high on the list as Harrison. These two outside ‘backers will need to force at least one turnover for the Steelers to win.

7 – CB Charles Woodson, Packers - Really, we could have said pick a Packer corner, because both Tramon Williams and Sam Shields have been game MVPs for the Pack in the playoffs this year. But Woodson is a big-time player who can emerge on the biggest stage, and as one of the few Packers with Super Bowl experience, he won’t be afraid of the stage.

6 – RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers – Mendenhall may have had the best game of his career against the Jets in the AFC championship game, and if he plays that way again, he can carry the Steelers to a win. Running against the Packers will be tough, but Mendenhall showed against the Jets that he might just be up to the challenge.

5 – OLB Clay Matthews, Packers – Matthews is the Packers’ star on defense, but after a ridiculous start to the season his playmaking has been a bit more sporadic this season. The matchup seems to favor Matthews against subpar Steelers tackles, but if the Steelers gear up their protection to stop Matthews, someone else will need to step up and pressure Big Ben. And even if Matthews can get to Roethlisberger, can he bring him down? Roethlisberger is basically as big as Matthews, and he’s perhaps the league’s toughest QB to bring down.

4 – WR Greg Jennings, Packers – Jennings may be the most overlooked No. 1 receiver in the league, but he certainly deserves the accolade. He’s good enough to carry the team, but he has so much help at receiver that defenses can’t focus on him. Jennings could have a breakout game a la Larry Fitzgerald two years ago that turns him from very good player to national star.

4 (con’t) – S Troy Polamalu, Steelers – Polamalu is one of the most popular and well-known Steelers, and he claimed defensive player of the year honors (over Matthews) this week. But his play of late hasn’t been dominant, and the fact that the Packers can spread the field with four receivers could force Polamalu into coverage instead of letting him freelance as he usually does. That will limit Polamalu’s impact in this game.

3 – TE Heath Miller, Steelers - Miller is a supersolid tight end who can help out blocking Matthews and company but also serve as a possession receiver or even a threat to get down the seam for a big play. The Packers have struggled against tight ends this year, and that could set Miller up for success on Sunday.

2 – WR Jordy Nelson, Packers – Nelson is the Packers’ fourth receiver, but he has been a popular target for Rodgers in the postseason, and we think he’s behind only Jennings in terms of the Packer wideouts we see making big plays this weekend. Of course, Rodgers will look for vet Donald Driver and the inconsistent but talented James Jones as well, but we can see Nelson piling up 70-80 yards or more on multiple receptions.

2 (con’t) – DLs B.J. Raji and Cullen Jenkins, Packers – The Packers’ defensive line doesn’t get a ton of publicity – or at least it didn’t until Raji broke free with an interception return for a touchdown against the Bears. But while Raji has been a dominator inside, Jenkins stepped up in the playoffs, and he’s just as likely to make the big play as Raji against the Steelers.

1 – ILBs Desmond Bishop, Packers, and Lawrence Timmons, Steelers - Bishop and Timmons have both had terrific seasons for their respective teams, but they don’t make the flashy plays that their defensive teammates do. But both guys are tackling machines, and if they can strip the ball on a tackle or pick up a fumble and return it for a score, they could find themselves joining unlikely Super Bowl MVPs like Larry Brown and Dexter Jackson.

1 (con’t) – DE Ziggy Hood, Steelers – We’ve been pounding the drum on how well Hood has been playing throughout the postseason, and if he does that again he’ll have a shot at raising his profile and making a splash on the biggest stage. In fact, we believe it’s more likely that Hood will make a big play than his D-linemates Casey Hampton or Brett Keisel doing so.

Ben Roethlisberger (left) will be on the spot at Media Day. Image via Wikipedia

Each year, the buildup to the Super Bowl is full of storylines. Some are hype, some are funny, some are ridiculous, and some actually mean something. So on the eve of the spectacle known as Media Day, we’re going to do what we do each year and break down the storylines using our Football Relativity comparison. The 10 level marks the storylines that you’ll hear the most; the 1 level is the storyline that will barely make a ripple.

If you have ideas we overlooked, suggest them via comments and we’ll add them to the comparison.

10 – Big Ben’s redemption - This story is old, because it’s been a full season since Ben Roethlisberger’s legal questions in Georgia, and several months since his league-mandated suspension. But Roethlisberger will be peppered with questions about his past and his future throughout the week. Armchair psychologists will try to determine if he has changed, if he has learned his lesson, whether women have forgiven him, and a multitude of other questions. With Big Ben giving pat answers to such questions all seasons, we can’t expect any revelations or public soul-searching, but the questions will undoubtedly be there.

9 – Aaron Rodgers’ place among the elite QBs today - Rodgers can break the glass ceiling of NFL quarterbacks if he wins this Super Bowl, much like Drew Brees did last year. Before New Orleans’ Super Bowl win, Brees was fighting for inclusion with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning among the league’s best QBs. Now Brees has turned the duo into a threesome. If Rodgers leads the Pack to a win Sunday, he’ll make it a quartet. He already has the regular-season numbers, but a Super Bowl win would vault him over Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and the other good quarterbacks into the land of the great – at least in terms of national perception. This storyline will be a talking-head go-to this week.

8 – Big Ben’s place among the elite QBs all-time - While Rodgers is out to solidify his ranking among the quarterbacks of today, Big Ben has history at stake. If he gets another Super Bowl win, he’ll join the Troy Aikman/Brady class with three rings, trailing just Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw on the all-time list. The list of QBs with two rings includes many greats – John Elway, Bart Starr, Roger Staubach, Bob Griese – but also Jim Plunkett, a good but not great. Roethlisberger can cement his lasting legacy (and strengthen his Hall of Fame case) by moving from the two-ring to the three-ring club.

7 – Packers IR controversy – Maybe it was the lull of the bye week, but the story about how the Packers were treating their 16 players on injured reserve blew up last week and will linger into media day. A quick review: First, the Packers announced that their IR players wouldn’t arrive in Texas until Thursday, which would leave them out of the team photo that happens Tuesday. Nick Barnett and JerMichael Finley took to Twitter to protest being left out, and the Packers rescheduled the photo until Friday. Then Rodgers publicly criticized players who were doing their rehab away from Green Bay, even though that’s a fairly typical decision for players. Again, Barnett and Finley (among others) took offense. The Packers will claim the waters have been smoothed over, but questions will persist all week and especially when injured players are available to the media later in the week.

6 – Looming lockout - Because both commissioner Roger Goodell and NFL Players Association leader DeMaurice Smith will hold press conferences this week, the looming lockout will be front-page news. There will be plenty of posturing, and both sides will try to win the battle of public perception. Who knows who will win; but we do know for sure that headlines will be forthcoming.

5 – Hines Ward retirement - Some stories have percolated suggesting that Ward, the long-time Steelers receiver and Super Bowl 40 MVP, might retire were the Steelers to win the Super Bowl. But Ward has said his third ring won’t be enough to transition him out of the game. Still, reports are out there enough that Ward will have to declare he’s coming back more than once to the media onslaught this week.

4 – Steelers injuries – Both teams have injuries, but the Steelers’ are higher profile. Reports say that Pro Bowl rookie center Maurkice Pouncey is out, although the team hasn’t officially ruled him out. Star defensive end Aaron Smith faced an early-week MRI that will determine whether he’s able to play. Former first-round pick Ziggy Hood has played quite well in Smith’s stead, which could allow the Steelers to bring Smith back in a limited role. But Pouncey’s replacement, Doug Legursky, will be a pretty significant drop-off from Pouncey’s level of play. That makes this an on-field issue worth talking about this week.

3 – Clay Matthews’ stardom – Aside from Rodgers, the Packer with the most to gain from a marketing standpoint this week is Matthews, the star outside linebacker and third-generation NFL player. Matthews has a distinctive look and two fine pro seasons, and that will make him a popular target of questions, especially by the non-traditional media. It’ll be interesting to see if Matthews can become a breakout star this week.

2 – none

1 – Packers injuries - While the Packers would like to have either OLB Frank Zombo or Erik Walden available Sunday to start across from Clay Matthews, this isn’t a make-or-break proposition for the Packers. However, it is an excuse for us to declare once again that Zombo is the best surname in the NFL. It’s a name fit for an X-Man or a wrestler, and it’s his real last name. We want him to be a star just so we can hear ZOMBO more often.

Here are thoughts on the Saints’ 31-17 victory over the Colts in Super Bowl 44.

*Sean Payton pitched a perfect game for the Saints in the coaching department. A lot of times, we pound on coaches for bad game-management decisions, but Payton was spot on in this game. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal in the second quarter didn’t pay off with a touchdown, but the Saints still got a field goal before the half based on field position, and more importantly they kept Peyton Manning from mounting a two-minute drill drive. Then the onside kick to start off the second half obviously was a huge gamble that paid off by giving the Saints their first lead. Payton also correctly challenged on the two-point conversion in the fourth quarter. That’s a strong performance from a coach who wasn’t afraid to lose and instead played to win.
*Jim Caldwell, meanwhile, made the game’s crucial mistake by attempting a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. When you think of trying a 51-yarder with a 42-year-old kicker, it just sounds like a bad idea, and even though Matt Stover had hit 16 straight postseason kicks, he barely got the kick there. It seemed like there was a 30 percent chance, tops, of that kick making it. An incomplete pass would have saved the Colts seven yards, and a punt could have buried the Saints deep and perhaps taken the aggressiveness out of Payton and Drew Brees. In a game that didn’t have a turnover or a play longer than 27 yards until Tracy Porter’s late interception return, that missed field goal was a huge turnaround.
*Obviously, Drew Brees had an epic performance in the game, completing 18-of-19 passes at one point and finishing 32-of-39 for 288 yards. In a game without big plays, accuracy is what kept drives moving, and Brees was just a little better than Peyton Manning in this game. That’s not to say Manning was bad, because he was at least good. But Brees put together a great performance.
*Again, in a game where there was only one turnover and just 64 penalty yards combined, mistakes that are usually smaller like dropped passes played a much bigger role. Marques Colston’s drop in the first quarter slowed the Saints down, while Pierre Garcon’s drop in the second quarter seemed to stymie the Colts’ momentum for a whole quarter. Garcon has a ton of talent, and he had a productive game with 5 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. But the young receiver had two key mistakes in that drop and then the fourth-quarter offensive pass interference that really hurt his team. Those mistakes loomed large in this one.
*Before the game, I tweeted that I saw a game with more running and more of a grind-it-out affair. And while my Pierre Thomas as MVP prediction didn’t come through, Thomas was important with 85 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. For the Saints, the grind-it-out came as they dumped the ball off time after time instead of taking bigger shots deep. For the Colts, they relied on Joseph Addai, who had a big game with 135 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Addai was the Colts’ best offensive player in the game.
*Dwight Freeney had the game’s only sack, and while he didn’t make a huge impact it was good to see that injury didn’t keep him from playing or limit him to the point that he’ll regret how he could have played. But the Colts’ best defensive player was Gary Brackett, who had 12 solo tackles and the key fourth-and-goal stop in the second quarter.
*Thomas Morstead was the crazy kicker of the Super Bowl with his terrific surprise onside kick, but Garrett Hartley deserves props for becoming the first kicker in Super Bowl history to make three field goals of 40 yards or more in a Super Bowl. It’s interesting to consider how both of these teams had kicking decisions to make late in the season. The Saints went with the young Hartley over veteran John Carney, and that paid off in both the NFC championship game and the Super Bowl. The Colts went with Stover over Adam Vinatieri, and Stover missed (in a tough spot).