Friday, November 16, 2012

Alison Redford: 'economy changed after election'

“I think that you have clearly seen through our first-quarter update and what’s going on in the world, that the world has changed,” Redford told reporters Thursday at the Alberta Association of Municipal Districts and Counties annual meeting in Edmonton.

The people coming to Alberta aren’t bringing their roads, hospitals and schools, Redford said.

This all comes back to the lackluster EROEI ratio the oilsands have, and the incredible overhead they require. "that world has changed" - What's changed? Europe? They're still doing horrible. Japan? Still baked in radiation. The U.S.? Well after a year of dithering on every subject except the fiscal cliff, all of a sudden this fiscal cliff has become a major issue. So, excuse me, but what's changed? The world hasn't changed at all, it's still stuck in the stimulus cycle of death. As I wrote recently:

The reason given for the latest forecast, is "Europe, the global economy, yadda yadda". The same old shit. Of course, for that to be true these so-called "experts" would have had to believe back in march that Europe was going to correct itself, that the U.S. fiscal cliff (which has been completely ignored all year in favour of massive campaign spending and the presidential reality show) wouldn't prove to be a big deal. Think back, did you believe it back in March? Do you believe it now? Why? What changed?

So once again, for the world to "have changed" you would have had to believe back in March that everything that's happening now regarding Europe, etc wasn't going to be happening. Now, just to really prove the point, here is what I wrote on July 29th, 2011 (back in the old pre-election world, before the "change"):

Just recently I saw an article proudly displayed on every frontpage: Alberta tops U.S. job creation. Apparently Alberta's job market grew by 22,000 jobs where as the ENTIRE united states only recorded 18,000. Naturally Albertans rejoiced, claiming that boom times were back and economic growth was on the way. Further it seems to be not a reason to be concerned but instead put even more faith the Alberta government is right "waiting for oil & gas revenue to rebound". Anyone remember Ed-TV almost 3 years ago? Anyone remember Alberta's "5 year economic action plan"? Yea, I didn't think so, apparently 3 years into this plan we are still on step 1 "waiting for oil & gas revenues to rebound". So lets look at when they will be rebounding.

Who buys our oil? Who is our largest trading partner? Well it happens to be the U.S. The same U.S. that had the remarkable drop in job numbers, and now today GDP data just kicked the U.S. while already down. One has to wonder exactly where all of this expected economic growth is going to come from? U.S. oil demand continues to stagnate, and lets be honest about how much time it takes for oil infrastructure to be set up for any profitable sales to China or other cross-continental markets. A long time. China certainly is pursuing this option though, and you can trust that China (the largest slave-wage market) really has Albertan's jobs and wages at heart.

Just wait for the day in the very near future where Alberta says "hmm, we really didn't see this coming". Because they will, of this I have no doubt. The forgotten 5-year plan will be revived and extended into a "10 year plan" and by the time Albertan's and the Alberta government take the global economic situation seriously we will not have the funds to do anything about it.

The new Alberta boom is based entirely on faith that Alberta "always has a boom". We simply expect economic booms to be thrown our way, and when we are not in one we are waiting for the next. There is no world-economic data to show any signs of a coming boom for Alberta. Yes, we had more jobs than the U.S., so what? That means a whole bunch of our clients will soon not afford our product. 18,000 jobs for an entire country is dismal, it does not point to an Alberta job boom, it points to a U.S.A. mega-economic failure and this will surely affect the Albertan economy in the not-to-distant future. Faith alone can't sustain us anymore.

And what do ya know, here we are and Alberta is saying "hmm, we really didn't see this coming". In fact, the rhetoric hasn't even changed as we are still "waiting for oil and gas revenue to rebound". Not enough for you, alright, here's another one I wrote during the election campaign:

Finally, on oilsands. Budget expectations on the price of oil expect sustained higher prices, but gas prices are already on the frontpage around the world. In 2008 oil was at $147 / barrel when the mortgage & auto meltdowns occured. Often overlooked are facts such as people ditching their cars in favour of bikes or scooters. Mortgage payments couldn't be paid with such a high price of oil according to Jeff Rubin. Many economists expect a collapse in the price of oil similar to the collapse in price seen in 2008 due to a sudden lapse in demand due to price. What is your plan to balance Alberta's budget if oil isn't more than $80 / barrel?

As you can now see, there was no plan. My questions never did receive direct answers, I guess no politicians thought they were important.

Canada needs foreign capital to develop its oil sands and is in the "middle" of discussions on how to approach foreign takeover bids such as the $15.1 billion offer by China's CNOOC (0883.HK: Quote) for oil and gas producer Nexen (NXY.TO: Quote), Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Friday.

Scattered throughout this blog (and my Hellberta blog) are many, accurate, forecasts of the economic situation in Canada and in Alberta. It's really not hard to do, all you have to do is be mindful of current events, have a firm grasp of the real problems in energy such as peak oil, and have a firm grasp of the fraudulent ponzi scheme we call an economy. I haven't just been right once or twice, I've been right consistently. I'm not trying to promote my ego by saying this, what I am trying to say is that if I could do it: they are either completely incompetent - in which case there should be no confidence in any further "plans" from these people - or they are deliberately deceiving the Canadian and Albertan populations to further the agendas of private interests. Gee, which do you think it is?

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Richard Fantin is a self-taught software developer who has mostly throughout his career focused on financial applications and high frequency trading. He currently works for eQube gaming systems.

Nazayh Zanidean is a Project Coordinator for a mid-sized construction contractor in Calgary, Alberta. He enjoys writing as a hobby on topics that include foreign policy, international human rights, security and systemic media bias.