In an interview with Bloomberg TV, BP CEO Bob Dudley took a bearish view on the price of oil, noting that the present feels like 1986, when oil slumped from $30 a barrel to $10 and did not recover until in 1990. “The fundamental supply and demand does remind me of 1986 a bit, where we could go into a period in this decade of lower oil prices,” Dudley noted, adding that prices may stay in a range below $60 for as long as three years. “It will be a long time before we see $100 again.”

I agree with Dudley: 1986 is the appropriate template for today’s oil market dynamics. However, the understanding of the precedent is incomplete, and the analogy, imperfect. The differences matter.

February in the US is the traditional time to hoist groundhogs before the public to determine whether winter is coming to a close or will continue in a seemingly endless slog. It’s also a time to remember the existential crisis of Phil and wonder if you’re actually stuck in one place for eternity.

In the global world of oil, some issues keep rearing their heads, like a Sonny and Cher song on a clock radio. But in the February edition of The Oil Big Five, we feature many new topics culled from our oil editors and analysts worldwide, who shared the top items they’re keeping an eye on in the oil industry. As always, we encourage you to share your top picks below in the comments or on Twitter with the hashtag #oilbig5, and enjoy this month’s list:

Egypt has set development and reform of its energy sector as a key priority as it seeks to rebuild its economy following the country’s second revolution in the past few years, the country’s president, Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, said January 19 during his first official visit to the UAE in that role.

During his keynote address to the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, Sisi also said he considered the security of the Persian Gulf region to be “part and parcel of Egyptian security.” The annual Abu Dhabi WFES gathering, while primarily a UAE forum for promoting and discussing regional and international renewable energy development, has also developed a significant political agenda.

The end of December is just around the corner, and it’s typical at this time of year for publications to take a grand look backward to sum up the year. What kind of proclamations can we make about the global oil industry in 2014? What sort of lessons are there to be learned, and how will we look back on 2014 years from now?

As tempting as it may be to take that look in the rearview mirror, today we’re going to look ahead with our December version of The Oil Big Five. By now you know the drill: We ask our Platts editors and analysts in offices around the globe what they think are the biggest issues or topics in the oil world for the upcoming month, and then we ask you for your thoughts. Are we right, are we wrong, and what do you want to see covered? Leave us your comments here or with #oilbig5 on Twitter.

Herman Wang was at the recently-concluded OPEC meeting. Herman, a Platts’ Washington correspondent, has been to several; here, in this week’s Oilgram News column, he gives his impressions of the meeting.

OPEC’s decision to roll over its 30 million b/d ceiling November 27 reaffirms Saudi Arabia’s dominance of the organization, but also represents a clear shift in the oil kingdom’s view on shale oil and OPEC’s need to protect its market share.

(The Platts’ OPEC team in Vienna was headed by Margaret McQuaile, and also included Stuart Elliott, Adal Mirza, Jacinta Moran and Herman Wang.)

Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali Naimi left OPEC’s Vienna meeting on Thursday saying the group had made “a great decision.”

Oil markets didn’t agree. In the weeks leading up to the decision, expectations had built for a cut in output, not least because of the sharp fall in demand for OPEC oil that forecasting organizations–including OPEC itself–were projecting for the first half of next year. But when Naimi signaled early Wednesday that the oil market would eventually stabilize itself, it became clear that the Saudis were not interested in cutting output.

Japan’s recent deal with Abu Dhabi to lease out more crude storage capacity to the emirate under a renewal agreement is deemed mutually beneficial. Not only will it enhance Tokyo’s supply security, but it also wiill give the Middle Eastern producer greater access to the Asia-Pacific market.

Under the agreement, similar to one Japan has with Saudi Arabia, the Japanese government will pay for storage to be used by Abu Dhabi for commercial purposes, in exchange for assigning priority to supplying the crude to Japan in an emergency.