The Best Loss (Warriors 101, Spurs 107)

In going to ridiculous lengths to lose the season finale Thursday night, the Warriors’ post-Cohan management gave the clearest indication yet of its commitment to winning. The Warriors started five rookies (the first time any team has done it in the modern era), played only seven players and gave an astonishing 88.75% of the game’s total minutes to players that weren’t in the NBA last year. The team nearly pulled out a win despite it all, but secured the loss by playing the bottom five players on the roster (McGuire, Wright, Tyler, Gladness, Moore) for the final twelve minutes. Now all we can do is hope it wasn’t too little too late.

Following the trade of Monta Ellis, the Warriors overcame 20-point deficits twice against the Minnesota Timberwolves to steal road wins. If the Warriors had lost those two games, they would now be in a three-way tie for the third pick in the draft, and essentially guaranteed to retain their pick no matter what happens in the lottery. I hope everyone enjoyed those two victories, because they may have cost this team their last, best shot at landing a difference maker for the foreseeable future. The Warriors’ history is littered with missed tanking opportunities. This time is a little different, in that the Warriors seemed to understand what they needed to do. They just didn’t (or couldn’t, given league scrutiny) commit to it early enough or hard enough. As a result, our draft pick now hangs on two events of chance completely out of our control. On Friday there will be a drawing to determine whether the Warriors receive the seventh or eighth pick heading into the draft lottery. Next month the draft lottery will be the final hurdle between the Warriors and their pick.

A draft pick is no magic bullet for this team. The odds of jumping into the top three picks are slim, and the player available at number seven may not be a starter, let alone a difference maker. But if the last month of basketball has demonstrated anything, it’s that the people now making talent decisions for the Warriors — whether it be new GM Bob Myers, advisor Jerry West, or even owner Joe Lacob — have a decent eye for getting good value from their draft picks. Klay Thompson is quickly rounding into a nice starter, Charles Jenkins is an ideal utility guard for the rotation, and Jeremy Tyler continues to show potential despite his age and relative lack of competitive basketball experience. Having a quality draft pick is more important than ever because the Warriors finally seem equipped to do something with it. It would be a cruel irony to blow through so many mid-level lottery picks during the Cohan era, then finally lose it when the team seems capable of capitalizing on it.

I’ll do grades for the full roster later — we once again have a long off-season to fill with blogging — but some quick thoughts from the final gasp of the 2011-12 Golden State Warriors:

Klay Thompson — More than any game I can remember, Thompson attacked the rim against the stripped-down Spurs roster. He got out on the break for some easy looks, patiently waited for lanes to open in the half-court, and dished off for easy baskets on the few times he wasn’t able to get all the way to the hoop. It won’t take long for the NBA to learn that they need to respect Thompson’s jumper — making this aspect of his offensive game all the more important. He has the tools to be a very dangerous, versatile option for the Warriors going forward, particularly if the team can retain the quality ball-movement they displayed following the Ellis trade. Thompson still needs to work on his defense and add strength so he can be more of a presence on the boards, but his steady development has a been a true bright spot of this relatively dreary season.

Charles Jenkins — Mark Jackson had to get Charles Jenkins off the floor in the fourth quarter because — as Jenkins did in Minnesota — he was about to win the game. As his confidence grew during the season, Jenkins became more aggressive in pulling up for his mid-range jumper. It’s become nearly automatic, and most teams seem content to give it to him. He keeps defenders honest with his penetration ability and has been remarkably steadfast running the team as a rookie. His 7 assist, 0 turnover performance in an otherwise garbage ball game is characteristic of his understated precision and control. He’s not flashy, but he’s also not reckless. As with Thompson, it’s been a joy watching Jenkins develop before our eyes on a game-to-game basis.

Jeremy Tyler — The jury is still out on whether Tyler will round into a consistent big-man threat, but that’s as it should be. He’s young, raw and — until recently — untested against NBA competition. These games were just early sneak-peaks at what Tyler may be able to offer the team; not the trials by which his ultimate ceiling should be judged. Still, there are signs he’s starting to piece things together. His footwork is still a frantic, frequently illegal mess, but he’s attempting to make honest low-post moves. When the steps fall into place, the results are impressive. He’s still passive on defense and the boards, but he consistently cut down on his mistakes as his playing time increase. For a guy with a reputation of being a problem child, he’s seemed remarkably composed, focused and mature during his late-season starts. The expectations will rise for Tyler next season. Hopefully he’s ready to elevate his game to meet them.

Chris Wright — In a performance that will rank with Marco Belinelli’s final-game shootout against the Seattle Supersonics in 2008 on the all-time “meaningless but tremendously entertaining” list, the Warriors’ undrafted rookie made sure the national TV audience got at least a few highlights. Wright’s ability to elevate is absolutely ridiculous and was fully exploited by Warrior ball-handlers willing to throw things his way. But what will determine Wright’s fate next year and beyond is his ability to round out the rest of his game. He’s a decent rebounder and penetrator for his size. He lacks a jump shot, but could develop one with some work as Dominic McGuire did this year. His motor on defense is excellent, but he’s still more energy than thought. I’m not sure this final game guarantees Wright anything come next year, but it’ll likely earn him a hard look from the Warriors and other NBA teams. There’s almost always room at the end of NBA benches for hustle.

Dominic McGuire — The Warriors signed McGuire to be a front-line defensive specialist. He closed out the final quarter of the team’s season as their point guard. It’s been that type of year. While re-signing Brandon Rush may be a more significant concern this off-season from a talent perspective, I’d love to see McGuire come back from purely a toughness perspective. It’s not just his physical toughness — which is unquestioned — but his mental toughness in doing the dirty work regardless of what role he’s assigned. Guard a center? Guard a point guard? Run the offense? Shoot jumpers? Push the break? We’ve seen it all from McGuire these past few weeks, and he’s done a nice job in every role that’s been thrust upon him. For a team that seemingly always needed to make excuses for its players faults, McGuire was the ultimate no-excuse contributor. He just got things done.

Regardless of what happens to the Warriors’ draft chances and despite all the ugly basketball in the season’s final quarter, the Warriors closed this year on a positive note. They played with a purpose, and they accomplished what they needed to do for at least one game. There will be time later for lofty expectations and big promises (Joe Lacob was far too eager to oversell this year). For now, the Warriors are a humbled team fighting for the most basic goal: a chance to improve. They didn’t show enough early commitment to the tank to guarantee that they’ll have that chance — but they showed far more commitment than Warriors fans have seen in ages. Now, the historically luckless just need a little luck.

We won it. We have the 7th spot for now! I can feel it. Things are changing for Warriors basketball!!

believewhat

Wow, won the coin flip. Is the warriors nation turning upside and down !!

Awesome news !! The odds should be 90 plus to get the 7th or above pick now, I think.

JT

72.5 that we keep the pick, I believe. 12.6 that we go 1-3, and 3.6 for 1.

sartre

This is what the organization worked hard for – a chance of retaining their pick. Quite an achievement after being so far ahead of the bottom-feeder pack at the time of the trade and Curry being shutdown. Now, we can only hope that the ping pong balls don’t elevate anyone ahead of them.

deano

Oh happy day.

JT

*72.6

JT

Ugh. Haha. *72.5 and *12.5!

The Oracle

Do we make a deal with Utah now to keep the pick this year no matter what the results of the lottery?

For example, before the lottery, we offer them one of our 2nd round picks this year and in exchange we get to keep the pick this year no matter what the lottery results.

We get:
Our pick this year no matter the lottery results, whether we are top 3, #7 or 8 or below

Utah gets
One of our 2nd round picks this year
Gets our pick next year (possibly protected or not)

This the only way to guarantee we keep the pick this year prior to the lottery. Is it worth a 2nd round pick to make our pick a sure thing?

Would Utah take a 2nd round pick this year to postpone getting our pick to next year when they have a 28% chance of getting our pick at 8, 9, or 10 this year?

deano

I can see the bumper stickers now: 72.6 Or Bust.

Still, for perspective on the importance of this seemingly sacred, Holy Grail of a pick, I want to know: What collegians likely to available at #7 are better post players RIGHT NOW than Tyler, CWright and/or Gladness?

I ask because I do not know the players in the Draft; and because the Dratees are not the only ones with room to improve. Tyler, CWright and Gladness were all rookies who got better with playing time, and who will get better still over this summer.

El Topo

Oracle,

GSW should do it, since they would be giving up a 2nd rd. pick for a top 1st rd. pick.

Don’t think Utah does it, since they get our 1st rd pick next year anyway if the balls bounce right for us. They’re better off getting a top 10 pick this year than a 20-30 pick next year (yes…I think we will be that good!).

El Topo

deano,

There are a number of bigs in the draft who I think are better than Tyler and Gladness right now, and have as much or more up side. Excluding Davis, Robinson, and Drummond, who won’t be available at #7 or higher, here are some names:

Most mock drafts have these guys going in rd 1. They have all played at least 1 year of college ball. Tyler hasn’t and was a 2nd. round pick and Chris Wright was un-drafted. There are reasons for that.

I like the sound of Henson, who will probably still be there at 7 (assuming the dub retain it).

“While Henson’s offensive game is still raw and developing, the same cannot be said for his defense and rebounding, which are his strongest selling points in terms of immediate impact. Henson’s tools on this end are phenomenal, and he does an excellent job utilizing them, as we’ve outlined in our past reports of him.

While there are some questions about Henson’s ability to not get backed down in the post at the next level due to his slight frame and average toughness, he makes up for it somewhat by using his smothering length to block shots in man-to-man situations.

Henson’s perimeter defense is much more of a sure thing to translate, as he possesses elite tools and abilities to defend power forwards in this regard, while also having the ability to effectively switch onto guards. He’s also superb defending pick-and-rolls, showing excellent change of direction ability that when combined with his length allows him to trap hard and still recover to his man.

Henson’s pace-adjusted rebounding and shot blocking are both slightly down this season, but still rank among the best in our database, especially for power forwards. He does a great job applying his tools in these areas with his excellent motor, and would likely be able to devote even more energy to these areas in the NBA as he continues to add strength to his frame.”

No way GSW should take Barnes ahead of Kidd-Gilchrist or Terrence Jones or Royce White. He may be the better shooter but those other guys can defend much better among other things.

El Topo

We don’t need a SG so I won’t mention Beal, Rivers and others.

If we go for a PG, only Kendall Marshall or Tony Wroten should be considered.

JMJ

Back to day dreaming with both eyes wide open!? Something is wrong.

And it is an anal, errrrrr, annual occurrence. Symptomatic and sickening.

sartre

@ El Topo, Myers looks good too. I’m leaning towards Henson of the two because scouting reports suggest he is a stronger rebounder and more athletic defender (though he needs to fill-out more) – both areas of FC need.

Aside: Pity the Windies couldn’t hold on. The upcoming series with the Black Caps should be a more competitive one.

sartre

Marcus Thompson III:

“GM Bob Myers said if Warriors land a Top 7, giving them 4 total picks, they’re likely to make a draft-day trade. “Four picks are a lot of picks. We added three rookies last year. I don’t think its ideal to have four more, making it 7 in two years. Four is probably a number we would like to reduce or consolidate. … If we end up with four, we’re probably in the market to move up, move out or trade.”

El Topo

Trade picks is OK too. Trade down for some 2nd. round Euros who can be stashed over there until ripe?

Fantom

The 72% likelihood of keeping the pick is incorrect. That would be the percentage for the #7 as a standalone pick. Because they tied 7&8 the lottery blls are equal for both 7&8, although the warriors retain the number 7 and if there are an odd number the get the additional 1. So their odds of retaining the pick are the average of 7&8 which is more like 60-65%. And the chacne of moving up is alos a bit lower- halfway bwetween the #7&#8- maybe 10%

RickP

Perhaps the most remarkable stat compiled by any W player this season is the fact that Nate Robinson’s on court +- is +1.0 per 36 minutes. This is from NBA.com.

That is, the W’s were a winning team this season, as long as Nate was playing. Amazing.

Jenkins seems to get a lot of love on here compared to Nate — which I don’t get. Jenkins was -8 or so. Way worse. All season.

Admittedly, I couldn’t stand to watch the tanked games, but my impression is that Nate gets the defense back on its heels and Jenkins doesn’t.

While I was OK with the Jenkins grab, I’m ecstatic about LaMichael James. He could be the second coming of Barry Sanders — if he were just a bit bigger: he’s scatty, fast, and a real fighter. Watched a TON of him in college.

For those unfamiliar, there’s a 13:22 minute highlight reel of his 2011 season on YouTube — and almost every play’s a thrill. Watch it!

Finally, as to Jenkins, he might just be perfect starting out as a slot receiver. Could get some time there. Both he and James will be return candidates — with the former on KOs and the latter on Ps (tho each can do the other).

A lot of Niner “skill” guys are in trouble for there jobs with these two added.

Oh, and the Dubs won the flip! Sweet!

Blue Skies

I think the Warriors are going to move up in the lottery order.

The fix is in.

Fantom

I agree about Jenkins-unitl recently. Earlier in the season he was cautious and didnt push the game at all. couldnt create chemistry or make anyone around him better. Recently he said ‘wait til next year- now I know what to do’ and because he is a hard worker and can shoot and not turn the ball over, I expect a very different result in terms of +/- next year. If Curry wasnt highly an injury risk I would say stand pat, but they need a backup plan-which might be a setback for jenkins if in fact Curry is okay- unless its more a 1-2 guard not a true point. I woudnt go the draft route though- experience is what is needed.

JT

Fantom@78-

You are incorrect. The percentages are:

72.6
12.6
3.6

dr_john

Fantom:

As a standing alone 7th pick the Warriors would have a 75% chance of ending up with the 1-2-3-7 picks.

What will change by sharing (averaging) the chances with Toronto will be that the Warriors will lose, more or less equally, as much as Toronto will gain at the 1-2-3 spots.

How much? Normally the 7th would have a 15% chance at one of the top three, and the 8th would have about a 10% chance at same. What they lose and what the teams (Toronto) below them gain will be additive. They will lose 5% overall.

The Warriors have the tiebreaker, and they are still at 70% for the 1-2-3 and most importantly the 7 pick.

Historically is not statistically identical. In this lottery, and there have been many a tiebreaker situation, in 13 years 4 times an 8 seed or lower has gained the 1-2-3, and that’s over 69% in favor of the Warriors—but this year with the tie you can take 2.5 % off that—closer to your figure I guess.

70% or bust. I want Kirk Lacob on the dais.

dr_john

The chance in the three draw 1000 “ball” lottery that a 7th pick will be bumped to 8th is 0.232.

The chance that the 7th pick will be bumped to 9th is 0.018.

The chance that the 7th pick will be bumped to 10th is regarded as close to zero < 0.001.

75% to retain.

Less this year as tied with 8th.

I read 1-2-3 or 7 as 70%. Sharing the balls with Toronto only affects one team's chances below them at the 1-2-3.

al oha

The S.F. 49ers hit a HOME RUN with the pick of LaMichael James! Blazing Speed. At RB, in the Slot, and Returning Kicks. This guy will convert more 3rd downs into 1st downs, help them score more TD’s instead of FG’s.

At pick #62, he will turn out to be a Steal.
In Harbaugh We Trust!

The Giants are stocked with an abundance of Speed and Talent.
Not so sure whether Bochy knows what to do with it though.

The Warriors are definitely on the upswing with possibly their best roster in years, especially if they can get a #1-3 or #7 pick in the Draft. A good young player or using it in trade to off a bad contract and sign a needed Big with the CapSpace.
Hoping M.Jackson can prove to be competent, maybe w/out Malone. At least Bob Myers couldn’t be dumber than Larry Riley.
Here’s to hoping.
It’s a great time to be a Niners/ Giants/ Warriors Fan!

dr_john

Rick P:

+/- isn’t my cup of tea, but now that the season is complete I’ll throw out a general view of the year based on WinProduced per 48, adjusted for position.

Let’s see how it compares with your view. I won’t include the guys who made a cameo, except for Kwame.

I know this will get a lot of screaming about Dorell and Andris from one side, and about Thompson at least from another. Don’t shoot the messenger.

If you could only keep one of Jenkins/Robinson, I think it’s a tough call and a fair argument. There’s obvious talent in the rookies, but fans tend to evaluate blindly, even, and especially, me. And the players grew as the roster changed and injuries set in, so a yearly stat does not take into account changes within the year for sure.

Curious I am if this lines up with your stats.

Fantom

Thanks for the better statistics. lets plan on 7. I want joes girlfriend on the dais. Based on Meyers sayijng the Warriors have a small forward- and who depends on fit with Bogut and Lee, I would guess Warriors draft big. A third rotation of center/Power forward who is a strong rebounder.

dr_john

I won’t have anything real to say about the draft until draft week.

Today a couple of mock drafts would have the Warriors taking at 7-30-35-52:

Also, since the team was playing odd lineups and maybe not trying that hard to win, I don’t know if the numbers are worth anything.

I couldn’t get final season numbers for adjusted +-. NBA.com just had raw numbers. Obviously, they have to be adjusted for minutes played and then interpreted in a variety of ways, none of which I’ve done for this post.

Based on raw numbers, the team leaders were Udoh (+150 in 826 min), Curry (+79 in 731min) and Robinson (+35 in 1192min). Jenkins was at the other extreme. Worst on the team, at -222 in 892 minutes. Thompson was – 133 in 1607 min.

I don’t claim to understand WP48, but if it doesn’t rate Udoh and Robinson as above average, I’d suggest that it’s missing something. Both Udoh and Robinson earned their positive +- by really changing the game for the better, and doing so quite often. I saw it while watching the games and I see it in the stats. And, purely subjectively, it didn’t seem to matter who else was on the floor.

McGuire was -152 in 1127. Third worst. I liked the look of McGuire. So, why does WP48 like him? Something peculiar about the way Jackson used him? Or, something missing from his game?

sartre

Ok, how about WinShare/48 minutes?

On this measure the dubs ranked in order top to bottom: CWright, Curry, David Lee, Nate, Rush/DWright, Beans, Smith, McGuire, Jefferson, Monta/Udoh/Barron, Klay, Gladness, Brown, Jenkins, Moore, Benson, and Tyler. The first four were the only ones above the league average, though Rush and DWright were only a tick below it.

Obviously, the sample size for some made the estimate meaningless (over and above the existing in-built limitations).

So all three cited measures include Curry in the top group. Two also agree on Nate among the better performers and two agree on DWright, CWright, and Rush among the better performers.

At the lower end all three measures include Jenkins.

The rookies not faring so well doesn’t surprise me. They were rookies and naturally took time to find their feet and for much of the season only showed flashes or were up-and-down. Nate is a little unexpected, but he had a strong run of form before being withdrawn over the final few games and had the occasional notable performance earlier in the season. For the most part MJ was good at yanking him once it was clear on a given night that he would hurt the team.

SurfCity

JT says:
April 27th, 2012 at 9:37 pm

Fantom@78-

You are incorrect. The percentages are:

72.6
12.6
3.6
====
88.8

What does the other 11.2 percent represent then?

Tired

more crappy stats

JT

Holzman@90-

That is one of the worst trade ideas I have ever seen. Myers would be fired immediately.

SurfCity@93-

72.6% chance that they keep their pick (1,2,3,7)

60.0% chance that they stay at #7

12.6% chance that they move up to take pick 1,2,3

3.6% chance at the number 1 pick

Anyone else feel like RickP is Frank? Any metric that values Nate Robinson over Dom McGuire should be immediately discarded, and never used again…

Our Team

Holzman,

Trade Curry and have Jenkins as your starting pg? I like Jenkins as a rookie bu pg, but…What??????????
I caution you (and a few others on here) to fight the 2nd String QB Syndrome. Especially when your 1st String QB has been injured for a year. Curry will be great with next year’s starting lineup. I can’t wait.

holzman

I don’t doubt that Curry can be very good if he develops further, but keeping in mind his lazy passes that get intercepted, his lack of toughness on D or for that matter aggressiveness taking it to the hole, and those injury woes, it seems to me that in his first year (versus several for SC), Jenkins has shown more. (of course one is an outstanding shooter over the other, but again, the other is a rookie and has shown that he too can heat up, if that’s what you want from your point guard).
The trade for me was about getting another big man, and an experienced one, who on top of that would be good from the line. (don’t forget that Bogut too has a history of injury).
and don’t forget that Marshall is being projected as the best passer in the draft, and an outstanding one at that. and of course then there is Nate, so that Marshall wouldn’t necessarily be thrown to the wolves immediately. (the order i placed the players in, OT, isn’t necessarily one that indicates who starts).
JT, i appreciate the criticism, but you don’t say why you think so.

holzman

should have read: the trade for me was about getting another 2 big men, one experience to back up Bogut and another stud 4 to develop along with Tyler: Jones or bpa in a “deep” draft.

JT and OT: That WAS about the worst trade idea I’ve seen all year. Makes NO sense whatsoever. I love Jenkins, but anyone who thinks he’s “shown more” than Curry has absolutely no concept of bball. At all.

Al: Nice to see you back. And nice also we both just love the Niners’ choice of James. What I like most — and what’s so surprising about him to me — is he’s just a terrific runner deep in the red zone, where we’ve had a wee bit of trouble lately.

GRo is gonna love scheming with weapons like Jenkins and James. Alex will be a year further along. Expect a more streamlined look this year. And, one hopes, an opening up of the O before the second half.

Fantom

several people have modified my % on the draft pick and the best site I found is http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-lottery-odds. Based on that the people who recently corrercted my guess are right, though past history is worse in terms of likelihood. Hopefully this wont be another of those years that #8 moves up.