Thinking Outside The Box

We highlight the key stats needed ahead of a packed Saturday and Sunday, when team news can often change your mind.

Stick to your picks and remember its 11 v 11 come kick off time, the papers and media can change your mind resulting in your head being in a pickle.

Chris Kirkham is your host, as a blog during 2016 took on Talksport acclaim, he went on to write for the Irish Big Race Trends last season too, having a great run of acca success in the Over 2.5 market , as well as ante post picks Arsenal winning the FA cup and Juventus featuring in the Champs League final.

A local award winning FA coach, his grassroots club recently won the FA charter standard club of the year and kindly asks any profits made from his selections, a kind donation is put back into kids grassroots football, at his club.

MAKING THE BOOKIES PAY

I figured after the week before last it may be a tough ask to follow, though in the end i was only one goal off a BTTS four fold.

The two non-league ones flew home, and in at half time, on non-league day. Funnily enough my Brid Town game saw both teams score as 1-1 draw was played out. Today I’m off up the road to Scarborough as they play Hyde in a winner takes all FA cup tie. To be in the first round proper for both clubs be a great achievement and a game I’m looking forward to probably more than the over hyped Liverpool, Man united game.

Refreshing to be waiting in Kwik Fit (there are other garages available) and picking up our local paper the Free Press. Amusingly named as many visitors, feel it just is that and are often seen waltzing out of shops with their ‘ Free ‘ press.

Anyway with papers full of the usual bad news, and makes me wonder why anyone ever bothers getting up , with these scare mongerers every day it was great to see Tonys lad George who has been involved in the making on the new FIFA 2018 game, amazing stuff . Then onto a little girl called Eve Gascoigne who battled cancer and is winning her fight, Eves parents kindly helped our club out with some amazing training kits with the logo Believe on them and that’s exactly our motto for the weekend . Then onto one of clubs players younger sibling needing cash for an operation, our kind citizens have managed to pull this off , and then finally a mention to the Charles couple , as a local bookie done well as he sees himself in a final in cooking TV programme . Bridlington was also on channel 4 this week as that dreadful googlebox couple took a hotel from one star to 5 star .

Myself and the man in the know have taken this blog from just that too and I begin in Scotland in the Over 2.5s

Not as many games as no League 2 , but my first stop is Hamilton v Motherwell . 86 from 140 games , and Hamilton 7 from the last 7 and Motherwell 5 from last 8 . its the first on our list for me.

Brechin play Morton – Brechin are 8 from last 10 and Morton 5 from last 10

52 from 74 in total

Dumbarton play St Mirren the home side are 7 from last 10 and Mirren are 14 from last 14

The fixture throws up 51 from 79

Its strong so far on the first 3

Falkirk with a new manager play Inverness , I’m staying clear , Falkirk only netted 6 and Inverness 10 from 16 games between them

0-0 beckons

Livingston v Dundee United 8 from last 10 for the home side and 5 from 10 from United

Only 6 from 20 games , enough for me to leave it alone

Livingston may be worth saving for another market though

Queen of the South v Dunfermline 8 from 10 then 9 from 11

Strong then 50 from 83

Its on the list

So League 1 sees Brechin – Dumbarton – Queen of the South

On to League 2

Ayr v Airdrie and we have 15 from 18 from Ayr and Airdrie 5 from 10 heads to head 18 from 30

East Fife v Albion EF 4 from 10 and Albion 10 from last 11

Only 2 from last 10 so I stopped there as over 120 encounters

Albion one for that market with Livingston I’ll explain in a bit

7 from ten for away side Forfar at 5 from 10 Queens Park

History says stay clear so we will

Raith v Arbroath 9 from 10 and Arbroath 5 from 10

57 from 81

Stranraer v Alloa history is strong 15 from last 17 and the home side 8 from 10 and away side is 5 from 10

So League 2 ill go with Stranrear and Ayr

Go with this new market as in the team scoring Over 2.5

Livingston – Raith – Dunfermline and stick in Wycombe who have netted 3 in the last 3 games

Thats a monster 471-1

Then the same teams Over 1.5 and its 17-1

Then lets combine our scottish Over 2,5s with Stranrear – Ayr – Brechin – Dumbarton – Queen of the South its 10-1

and add Hamilton for a 20-1 then add Wycombe who are 5 from last 5 in Over 2.5s ( V Exeter who are 6 from last 8 ) and its 39-1

Mix them up yourselves

Ive had 4 points on each of those with the fun bet on the 471-1

The Premier League Double is well up as Burnely took him the bacon last time

The man in the know says Spurs to win HT FT and i say early kick off Man united to score over 2.5

Its 7-1 , we like this column , its been good to us .

Just Saying comes at the hands of that early kick off and with United in good shape , try Man United at -2 at 11-1

Now thats a lot of info for a Saturday morning, so take a deep breath and enjoy the Man in the know, who was lucky enough to see in the city of culture this week, his first christmas decorations up. It brings a smile to his face and he needed one after Forest Green.

Well can you believe it?

I hid with embarrassment after last week. Forest Green have been so good to us in the last few weeks (losing), then come up against their toughest assignment to date against Notts County and……….Dont lose. Its the way it goes. I lost and a few others did too. I saw one bet of £700 on Notts County go down and I imagine plenty of others did. It should have been a thrashing, but in the end Forest Green played out of their skins and were unlucky not to win. I wish they had lost, as I think there is super value in them loosing at home to Newport, but were not going to go there. If they had lost I could have also screamed from the rooftops about Wigan Athletic this week at home to Southend. Now I can’t……How one result can change a perception…. However, lets go back a week were I hammered the bookies, don’t forget that.

This week I hoping I bounce back to form and I am backing myself to do just that!

First up Peterborough to beat Gillingham. Peterborough’s form has been all over the place this season but they are a team who play at 100 mph and are all out attack. I think they will overwhelm Gillingham who have won only once in the last seven league games. remarkably they have failed to score in 5 of those 7 games and haven’t registered a league goal in the last 4 games. I think this one could be a good old thrashing for the Gill’s but I did say that last week. However, Peterborough should be too good. home win.

Secondly we are going to go for Wigan Athletic to win at home to Southend Utd. Wigan have won 6 of their last 7 games and the one they lost was against………you guessed it Peterborough Utd. The form looks strong. Im quite shocked we are getting 8/15. Southend Utds form isn’t too bad and because of that, for me, it’s another example of lack of knowledge from the bookies. Southend have won taken 10 from a possible 15 points in their last 5 games. However, their wins have been against average teams. When they have come up against the top teams they have lost (Charlton/Shrewsbury). Therefore, there is value in taking them on and thats what we’ll do!

Finally, its Leeds (pains me to say it) to beat Reading. I saw Reading against my team Hull City and we played them off the park. In fact, they were dreadful. We didn’t kill the game off and they ended up snatching a draw. Leeds have lost 3 of their last 4 games and 2 of their 3 latest wins have been against garbage (Burton, Birmingham). At evens they are worth a punt, purely on what I have seen personally from both teams. It’s my opinion Leeds are a better side than Reading and that is enough for me.

Advice;

Peterborough to beat Gillingham

Wigan Atletic to beat Southend Utd

Leeds to beat Reading

4/1 with Sky Bet. (Add Shrewsbury who are a cracking little single to win at Plymouth and it boosts the price to 8/1)

Just saying, one to add to any acca is Sheffield Wed to win at Bolton, it should happen.

Good luck.

Season 2017-18 Preview

My room is the usual current array of all the new season guides filled with options and selections . I can happily keep them all to end of the season , and look back and look with laughter or hindsight or even anger of the selections made by pundits upend down the country.

I’m going to put up my ante post bets , and after a long look at things , my main bet is to be a former Premiership winning side now in League 1 and put up Blackburn to win the league

Blackburn to win League 1 9-2

Tony Mowbray has made some shrewd signings and at home you would expect most points to be won. Mowbray led a revival at the back end of last season losing 3 of 15 games since he took over.

The Champions League is something that can be won by half a dozen teams in which one has just broken all the records, and I feel PSG are only trying to build to win one title.

The Champs league semi beckoned for them last time out though the turnaround at Barca prevented them and now this season feel they will go one closer.

PSG to win Champions League 12-1

The premier league title can be won by Arsenal this term. Please don’t pass out or stop reading, hear me out.

So close but yet so far away in recent seasons, Wenger will play kids in the Europa League get knocked out then play City-Liverpool-United-Chelsea will all be in the Champs league come February and the gunners can concentrate on one competition. The FA cup he’s won too many times and at 11-1 feel Arsenal could well be top of the pile come next May.

ARSENAL to win the Premier League 11-1

The player of the year went to a midfielder last season and this season i feel this young man will shine. Paul Pogba will play when fit, thats a sure bet of the season.

Now with Matic able to give him more of the Juve role on the left, Pogba will turn 9 hits of the posts to goals and United to the next level.

Some great displays all be it in friendlies at club and international level, Pogba represents value in this market in which Other players unsettled or victims of squad rotation.

Hazard , Sanchez , Augero can’t be backed in faith.

Paul Pogba to be crowned play of the season at 12-1

A lucky 15 on the above four for a good solid season bet

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“Stats matter buts it’s how we use them that affects our success”

Kevin Pullen – Racing Post Annual 2017-18

It’s with stats , this page had its success last season.

With no form to go on, we begin with head to heads in the Over 2.5 market

The rule here is simple

1-Games against each other over the last 6 seasons must be over 70%

2- They then must feature in the league’s top 10 of Over 2.5 goals teams

3-Look at the last 6 games from last season

Crawley v Port Vale

Bromley v Eastleigh

Woking v Gateshead

Albion v Ayr

11-1 with William Hill

I’ve also been given an acca from a man in the know of the lower leagues.

His studying is detailed and each week he will give us a nap of the weekend along with a treble

The mystery man from Flamborough spends many hours watching the non-league circuit and loves to delve into the bottom tiers of the English leagues.