In January, will the federal government be shuttered again? At first thought, it seems inconceivable that Congress would want to go through another protracted fight like the one that shut things down for 16 days in October. That could occur, however, if a new budget panel doesn’t meet its deadline.

Once more, the clock is ticking. By December 13, a group of 30 senators and representatives have to hammer out a bipartisan budget agreement. It must a) reconcile the markedly different House and Senate FY 2014 budget plans passed earlier in 2013, and b) map out a longer-term plan to shrink the federal deficit. If a) doesn’t happen, then the country will be threatened with another federal shutdown on January 15. If b) doesn’t happen, then another round of sequester cuts from the 2011 Budget Control Act will be initiated as of that same date.(1,2,3,4)

Does this seem like déjà vu? It does among many political and economic analysts, who fear a repeat of the supercommittee debacle of 2011, when a bicameral, bipartisan group of 12 Capitol Hill legislators just gave up trying to find a way to shave $2 trillion from the deficits projected for the next decade.(4)

This new committee is bigger, and like the supercommittee, its leaders are far apart politically. Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) are the budget chairs of their respective chambers of Congress. The key difference lies in the modesty of its ambition. On October 18, Murray told Bloomberg that the committee would aim for “a budget path for this Congress in the next year or two, or further if we can” rather than a “grand bargain” across the next 10 years.(1,3)

Will they manage that? Some observers aren’t sure. Murray co-chaired the failed supercommittee of 2011, and while Ryan was quiet during the fall budget fight, he recently authored an op-ed piece for the Wall Street Journal reiterating his controversial ideas to slash the deficit by reforming entitlement programs. Still, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told Bloomberg that “there’s a real desire to take another effort, not at a grand bargain, but at a sequestration replacement,” and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) commented that “we don’t want to raise expectations above reality, but I think there’s some things we could do.”(1,3,5)

Leaders from of both parties maintain there will be no shutdown in January. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) stated that a shutdown is “off the table” this winter. On CNN’s State of the Union, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) warned that the public would not tolerate “another repetition of this disaster”; on ABC’s This Week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said she sympathized with the public’s “disgust at what happened.” These comments do not necessarily imply expedient negotiations ahead.(3,6)

The short-term fix didn’t fix everything. As a FY 2014 budget hasn’t yet been agreed upon, the Treasury is still relying on stopgap funding to keep the federal government running through January 15 and “extraordinary measures” to raise the federal debt limit through February 7.(2)

The long-term outlook for America’s credit rating didn’t really change. Fitch put its outlook for the U.S. on “negative” and warned of a potential downgrade; Dagong, the major Chinese credit ratings agency, actually downgraded the U.S. from A to A-. Even so, S&P and Moody’s didn’t take action as a result of October’s shutdown; while S&P thinks the shutdown will cut 0.6% off of Q4 GDP, it still gives the U.S. an AA+ rating (downgraded from AAA in 2011).(7,8)

America lacks top-notch credit ratings, but few nations have them. In fact, only 11 countries possess the coveted AAA rating from S&P and Fitch plus the leading Aaa rating from Moody’s. If you look at S&P’s ratings for the globe’s ten largest economies, Germany is the only one with an AAA. China gets an AA- with a “stable” outlook and Japan has an AA- with a “negative” outlook. While Russia has the world’s eighth biggest economy, Moody’s, Fitch and S&P all rate it one grade above junk bond status.(7)

Is Wall Street all that worried about another shutdown? At the moment, no – because there are several reasons why the next debt debate could be less painful. As the goal appears to be a near-term bargain instead of a grand one, it may be more easily realized. If the newly appointed budget panel fails, the economy can probably weather $20 billion of 2014 sequester cuts. Also, many mid-term elections are scheduled for 2014; do congressional incumbents really want to damage their reputations further with another shameful stalemate?(8)

While confidence on Wall Street and Main Street would erode with a repeat shutdown, the Treasury might face a slightly easier challenge in January than it did in October. Sequester cuts would trim the already-shrinking federal deficit further in early 2014, conserving some federal money. As a Goldman Sachs research note just cited, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could also make their dividend payments to the Treasury early in Q1, which would also help.(8)

Global investors can’t really back away from America. The dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, and China owns about $1.3 trillion of our Treasuries. Those two facts alone should compel our legislators to work things out this winter, hopefully before the last minute.(7)

Contacts

Securities and investment advisory services offered through NEXT Financial Group, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. To view NEXT Financial Group’s privacy policy and other important information, visit the "Customers" section of www.nextfinancial.com. Although Capital Consulting Group & TwinCitiesRetirement.com are affiliated, they & CLS Investments are not affiliated with NEXT Financial Group, Inc. Investment products and services available only to residents of: Minnesota, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. NEXT Financial Group, Inc. does not offer tax or legal advice. Please consult your tax or legal professional before taking any action.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will outperform a non-diversified portfolio in any given market environment. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against a loss in any given market environment. An investment in a portfolio strategy is subject to investment risk, including possible loss of principal. The investment strategy of the funds used may include investments in foreign securities, small & medium sized companies, as well as funds that concentrate in one specific asset class, all of which may increase the risk and volatility of the funds. Consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the portfolio carefully before investing. This information should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any security.

The information presented here does not consider your particular investment objectives or financial situation nor does it make personalized recommendations. This information should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The investment strategies may not be suitable for you. Individuals should contact their own tax professionals and attorneys to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based on this information. We believe the information provided is reliable, but do not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

* In order to claim your complimentary cruise, you must be an existing client of Capital Consulting Group, or you must have been referred by an existing client. Limit 1 ticket per survey response per year. Limit 2 tickets per household per year. Must be 30 years of age.