Is Central Asia really exsiccated? Vladimir and Elena Aizen, Arzhan Surazakov University of Idaho. People of central Asia totally depend on seasonal snow and glacier melt water. Without snow and glaciers, central Asia will dry out. From ancient to modern irrigation systems

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Accelerating altitudinal changes of precipitation for the last 30 years compared to the previous 30 years , Acc = Sl1972-2005 - Sl1942-1972, mm

Accelerating changes by region of precipitation for the last 30 years compared to the previous 30 years , Acc = Sl1972-2005 - Sl1942-1972, mm

Overall decadal trends show the high dust loading for the 1960’s and 70’s, with maximum dust loading apparent for the 30’s and that is in accordance with results from 154 Chinese stations on maximum frequency of dust weather for the mid-1960’s (Qian et al;Sun et al., 2002) and the lowest in the 90’s to be one-fifth that of the 60’s.

Tien Shan, number of days with snow 2000-2001 1960’s and 70’s, with maximum dust loading apparent for the 30’s and that is in accordance with results from 154 Chinese stations on maximum frequency of dust weather for the mid-1960’s (

Duration of snow melt from the date of maximum snow cover to date of it’s disappearance reduced on 30 days during the last twenty years, equal 138 days in 2007. Snow melt 30 days faster then 20 years ago. The decrease of snow cover is not linear process.

ten days AVHRR data calibrated with surface observational data

eight days MODIS data

1,617 km the last twenty years reconstructed by surface observational, AVHRR and MODIS data2 (-10.1%) glacier area reduction during the last thirty years in Tien Shan

K A Z A K H S T A N

C H I N A

0

50

150 km

Inner the last twenty years reconstructed by surface observational, AVHRR and MODIS dataTien Shan area

Aksiirak glacierized massif

182 glaciers; 427 km2 glacierized area (aerial photogrammetry 1943)

1943

1977

2003

182 glaciers; 406.8 km2 glacierized area; 4.2% area reduction

(aerial photogrammetry 1943/1977)

178 glaciers; 371.6 km2 glacierized area; 8.7% area reduction

(aerial photogrammetry 1977/ASTER 2003)

Petrov Glacier

2003

2002

1995

1977

1956

1943

1869

1800

Conclusion the last twenty years reconstructed by surface observational, AVHRR and MODIS data

Statistically significant difference in means of annual and seasonal precipitation and air

temperature for two 30-year periods was observed at more than 73 (precipitation) and /93%

(air temperature) of 264 stations

The last 30-years average precipitation has decreased on 0.1% of average compared with

previous 30-years

The last thirty year deficit of precipitation income was -62 km3 that is about 6 % from total

1,048 km3 volume Tien Shan glaciers

The most significant deficit in precipitation income observed at the alpine regions and

Kazakhstan steppes during summer season

Acceleration in decrease of precipitation for the last 30 years for all central Asia

Increased precipitation in winter at low altitudes, at Aral-Caspian and Tarim basin deserts,

western and even Eastern Pamir

Increased annual air temperatures for the last 30 years on 0.68°C by increased summer air

temperatures

Total central river runoff have decreased on 4% in all central Asia

Snow covered areas shrunk by 15% and glacier covered area by 10% over the last 30 years