Most of us have also all been impacted by the Coronavirus Crash. The only ones who haven’t been impacted by the crash are those who are only invested in the G Fund, and to a significant extent those who are invested in the F Fund. Taking a look at daily price movements, we can see that every other fund, including all of the L Funds, have experienced major declines in the past few weeks.

To help put things into perspective, I scripted out returns over each 35-year period that began with each new decade, from the first decade of 1900 to 1984 (1984 ends in December 2018). I chose 35 years, because that reflects a career with investing included. Many TSP participants could have their accounts for 40 or even 50 years.

The below returns are based on a starting salary of $30,000, with an investor contributing 5% of salary and getting a government match. The salary (and contributions) increase by 5% each year, for 35 years. Investments are made/calculated monthly in the given funds. These returns are just one example of a variety of returns I examine in detail in TSP Investing Strategies: Building Wealth While Working For Uncle Sam, 2nd Edition

Here are the hypothetical returns for four portfolios. An all-C Fund (U.S. stock) portfolio, an all-G Fund (government bond) portfolio, a 65-35 C Fund-G Fund portfolio (two-thirds in stocks and one-thirds in bonds), unrebalanced, and a 65-35 portfolio that is rebalanced at the end of each year.

As I think you can see, investors in each of the 35-year periods experienced multiple declines in value in every type of portfolio except for one: the all-G Fund portfolio never decreased. But, as you’ll also see, at no point did that all-G Fund portfolio outperform the other portfolios, despite the volatility all the other funds experienced.

The charts below show returns every decade, from 1905-1939 to 1984-2018. The underlying methodologies and datasets are posted on the project’s GitHub page, and additional charts for the below study are here. I also invite you to explore your own portfolios based on inputs you determine on the companion interactive dashboard (still in beta).