This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by kevvu: 18.01.2011 08:55.

Hey,
I think he could easily have 77 as well in his range, and i dont think he will even raise AA so big. So i would just bet fold the turn. Looks week, but still.
But about betsizing: I think u should cb smaller on this dry flop on 3b pots cause u want to keep your bluffs cheap too.

Do you have 4b stats? May help you to know whether he likely flats AA/KK. I would say AK is more likely overall give blockers to KK and likelihood of 4b AA. But then call down rather than raise turn is a likely line.

As to his betsizing, he may just want to get the $ in now a flushdraw appears. But yeah, it looks like he deliberately bets enough to put you all in - which looks kinda bluffy.

I think I would call here - esp, if he is a reg - given 2.5:1 since we should not be looking to fold tptk on a dry board in 3b pot vs BU range without reads.

Bet sizing here is interesting for hero. We will need to bet more than 1/2p on at least one street, since 1/2p wont get us all in since we are deep. But, yeah, $8 looks a little much on flop. Maybe aim for 2/3 on all streets. However I acutally doubt we'll get 3 streets of value from worse here... so maybe it doesnt matter.

Fact that villain is decent makes me either: think he is capable of raising air vs your weakish looking 2nd barrel, or alternatively that he mostly has it here and isnt likey to be trying to push us of AK/KQ with worse in which case we should give it to him. So, um, I dunno. Tough spot.

This post has been edited 3 time(s), it was last edited by Dublimax: 18.01.2011 11:03.

Hi guys, thanks for the comments.

@ kevvu: I don't think he has sets in his range because his Fold to 3B is 73% and I'm pretty sure a reg wouldn't call 3B for set value only (i.e wouldn't call with smaller PP than 88 or 99)

@ kevvu and Tim about betsizing: Agree that my normal CBet should be smaller. Sometimes I do these weird betsizings just to look spewy (hence the 1/2 pot bet on the turn as well). Also that could be a reason why he shoves turn with air considering my weak looking turn bet

@ Tim: 4B stats are very hard to use because he could flat AA but 4B JJ especially BU vs SB.

I assume that hand history is right: hero 3-bet pf 24/18 player, c-bet flop and then b/c turn. Seems really standard play to me.
If he is winning player he would float that board smt with AJ/AT of
and then shove over your turn barrel. Also he would very likely shove turn his KQ
Can ´t really get away your hand, since your hand range is usually there quite weak and if you´re not b/c turn tptk then what hands would then stack off?

Where's the catch? If you hit TPTK with your AK in a 3bet pot and the board isn't ugly your goal is to get it in. Sure sometimes they have you beat but thats way too seldom to consider folding. My 2 cents.

But, for my money (about the same as your 2 cents), any time we are hating life and are expecting to see some sick setup and actually it turns out villain was bluffing and he failed to frighten us into folding, we should be congratulating ourselves, at least a bit.