Public Health Expert Thinks Concerts Will Return in Fall 2021 ‘At the Earliest’

The coronavirus pandemic has already put a hurting on the live events industry. In a feature in New York Times Magazine, they polled five public health experts about when reopening businesses and it's a grim forecast for concerts, which one expert predicts won't return before fall 2021 "at the earliest."

Zeke Emanuel, vice provost for global initiatives and director of the Healthcare Transformation Institute at the University of Pennsylvania was among the experts polled on various aspects of getting daily American life back in motion. He insisted a return to normal functions would have to be "done in stages and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back."

In Emanuel's opinion, "Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner."

However, "Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility." Unfortunately, Emanuel felt these events "will be the last to return," and he looked ahead beyond one year, noting, "Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest."

Reopening public and work spaces inevitably means there will still be some sort of virus transmission between people, meaning there may be an ebb and flow in regards to the rise and fall in the number of people infected.

"In Hong Kong, Singapore and other places, we’re seeing resurgences when they open up and allow more activity. It’s going to be this roller coaster, up and down," assessed Emanuel, who added, "The question is: When it goes up, can we do better testing and contact tracing so that we can focus on particular people and isolate them and not have to reimpose shelter-in-place for everyone as we did before?"

In light of the absence of touring, countless artists have pursued the live stream avenue, performing concerts from their homes for fans around the globe. You can keep track of all future live streams of this nature with our Rock + Metal Virtual Performance Streaming Calendar, which is continuously updated.