Job seekers line up outside the Ferguson Community Center in Cordova, Tenn., in November with U.S. jobless rates still high.

Photo: Jim Weber, Associated Press

Job seekers line up outside the Ferguson Community Center in...

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Wife Chirlane McCray holds the Bible as New York Mayor Bill de Blasio takes the oath of office, administered by ex-President Bill Clinton. De Blasio pledges to "put an end to economic and social inequalities."

Photo: Seth Wenig, Associated Press

Wife Chirlane McCray holds the Bible as New York Mayor Bill de...

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Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, has co-sponsored a bill to raise the federal minimum wage to $10.10.

It's that time of year when we scribes, with the illusion that we know everything, make unassailable predictions for the next 360-0dd days.

So, here goes:

1. We'll get to see if there really is a "new normal" and what it looks like: For example, by the end of 2014 we'll see whether the U.S. unemployment rate returns to its traditional postrecession level of 5 percent, or settles at a "new normal, natural" rate - say, 6.7 percent, as suggested by Federal Reserve Bank of San Franciscoresearchers.

We'll also get to see whether the shockingly high incidence of long-term joblessness, particularly among older workers, and the increase in involuntary part-time employment and minimum-wage work - categories not counted in the official unemployment rate - are companion features of the new normal, and what their effects might be.

"Our business depends on discretionary consumer dollars, and a shrinking employment base and stagnant personal income are not the kind of foundation that bodes well for the future," said Gerry Lopez, CEO of AMC Entertainment Holdings, quoted in a roundup of chief executive views of the year ahead in the Wall Street Journal.

Still, discretionary dollars will continue to flow - stock market permitting - for luxury cars ("High Rollers in a Buying Mood," according to the New York Times), upper-class airline accommodations, high-end restaurants and multimillion-dollar homes complete with separate wings for the owner's pets.

"Luxury is not a dirty word anymore," said a high-end automotive consultant. "In 2008, luxury was a dirty word."

It's probably safe to say that the "bifurcated economy" - nowhere more in evidence than in California - will remain a prominent feature of the American economic and business landscape in 2014.

2. Countervailing movements: The rhetoric is full of them. President Obama calls income inequality "the defining challenge of our time," though whether "it drives everything I do in this office" is another matter.

The "yawning disparity ... may be the state's biggest challenge," concluded the California Economic Summit, a gathering of economic, labor and business leaders in Los Angeles in November. Whether the summit's "action plan" - more manufacturing, skills training, infrastructure rebuilding, affordable housing - comes to pass in 2014 remains to be seen.

One concrete measure that might gain traction is raising the minimum wage. Last week, increases went into effect in San Francisco, San Jose and 13 states, adding to the pay of an estimated 2.5 million workers. California's goes from $8 to $9 in July.

Seattle's will increase to $15 an hour if its mayor-elect has his way. A bill co-sponsored by Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, to raise the federal minimum wage to $10.10 an hour faces an uncertain future in the Republican-controlled House.

The private sector has kept, shall we say, a low profile. Except for Costco CEO Craig Jellinek, who supports Miller's bill. "Instead of minimizing wages, we know it's a lot more profitable in the long term to minimize employee turnover and maximize employee productivity, commitment and loyalty," he said. Costco employees earn a minimum of $11.50 an hour.

3. Person to watch: Top candidate: New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, who at his inauguration last week said he was "called to put an end to economic and social inequalities that threaten to unravel the city we love."

It will be interesting to see how de Blasio's campaign pledge to raise taxes on those making more than $500,000 a year to pay for universal pre-K schooling plays with state lawmakers who have to approve it, as well as raising the city's minimum wage to $10.50 an hour and getting "big developers" to build more affordable housing and a raft of new community health centers in the city.

"It won't be easy," said de Blasio at his inauguration, and he's surely got that right.

Michael Rossi, a former top financial industry executive who is now Gov. Jerry Brown's jobs and business development czar, had this to say while reviewing the California Economic Summit report:

"I'm just a simple Italian kid from East Oakland. My view is this:

"Since the end of World War II through the 1970s, economic disparity was shrinking at every level. Since then, it's gone in the other direction faster than any time in the history of this country.

"My biggest concern is that we do not create an economy that results in future generations not getting the same break I did."