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Forecast and Ski Conditions

Why doesn't this match the 48h forecast?

We're currently showing forecast weather and snowfall from two different Environment Canada (EC) models; one is the GEM 10km resolution forecast model, and the other is the HRDPS west 2.5km (high resolution) forecast model. Before these models start to run, EC needs to define the starting conditions for each cell in the model - this is more difficult with the higher resolution models since measurements aren't available in many (most) grid cells. As a result, the 24h grid may provide a indication of how the local trends vary more with terrain than the 10km grid because more topography can be taken into account, whereas in the 10km grid some of these dynamics are averaged.

In general, some weather patterns will result in very similar results between models, which can be interpreted with higher confidence; however, disagreement between the models may help provide an indication of uncertainty of the incoming weather pattern (e.g. snowfall amounts).

Why doesn't this match the 24h forecast?

We're currently showing forecast weather and snowfall from two different Environment Canada (EC) models; one is the GEM 10km resolution forecast model, and the other is the HRDPS west 2.5km (high resolution) forecast model, which we use for the short term 24h forecast. Before these models start to run, EC needs to define the starting conditions for each cell in the model - this is more difficult with the higher resolution models since measurements aren't available in many (most) grid cells. As a result, the 24h grid may provide a indication of how the local trends vary more with terrain than the 10km grid because more topography can be taken into account, whereas in the 10km grid some of these dynamics are averaged.

In general, some weather patterns will result in very similar results between models, which can be interpreted with higher confidence; however, disagreement between the models may help provide an indication of uncertainty of the incoming weather pattern (e.g. snowfall amounts).

Experimental Plots: Atmospheric Forecast at Elevation

The following plots are experimental, showing temperature profiles vs. elevation over time, as well as dew-point depression, which is the difference between the temperature and the dew-point at a given location in the atmosphere.

Elevation Forecast Plot

This plot is a modification of an atmospheric sounding plot, which shows temperature and dewpoint (depression) at different isobars (layers of constant pressure). This plot is contains three parts, one which shows temperature as a function of time and elevation. Forecast moisture and temperature differences between elevations and/or isobars, including temperature inversions can be observed.

The second plot shows dew-point depression, or the difference between the ambient temperature and the dew-point. When this difference approaches zero, it indicates a moist layer in which small changes in temperature result in formation of clouds and potentially precipitation. Another thing to note is that the phase of precipitation is dependent upon the layers through which the precipitation must travel before reaching the ground.

Additionally, to provide additional context to this plot, the base and top elevation of resort lift access is shown where available, freezing level is also shown to help indicate temperatures above zero Celsius.

This plot is experimental, if you have suggestions on how to make this plot more useful, please let us know!