End of the cross-LoC vision?

I think New Delhi has shot itself in the foot by suspending the cross-LoC trade with Pakistan

HAPPYMON JACOB

Srinagar, May 5, 2019, 12:00 AMMay 4, 2019, 10:10 PM

UPDATED: May 4, 2019, 10:10 PM

File Pic of Loc trade

New Delhi’s decision to suspend the cross-LoC trade with
Pakistan is unfortunate. Unfortunate because undoing whatever progress has been
made to resolve the Kashmir conflict is clearly a regressive step. It is also untimely because this comes
at a time when the Kashmir Valley is in the middle of a hopeless spiral to a
bottomless pit. The suspension of the trade that began in 2008 is also perhaps
indicative of the BJP-led central government’s Kashmir policy today, free of
any grand vision.

The cross-LoC trade began with a great deal of fanfare in
October 2008, despite the rising tensions between the two sides during those
days. It was indeed a historic moment as many in the Valley might recall.
Despite the Kabul embassy attack and the 26/11 terror attacks, the trade and
the bus service continued unabated with minor disruptions. As a matter of fact,
this is perhaps the only major CBM that remained unaffected by the ups and
downs of India-Pakistan relations. To that extent then, it is depressing to see
the suspension of this very significant CBM.

Well, let me rephrase that. It is not just a CBM, the trade
brought a lot of cheer and happiness to the people on either side of the
dividing line, the LoC. I have had the privilege of traveling to the
now-suspended trading points on either side of the LoC, and was witness to the
enthusiasm of the local trading communities about the future prospects of the limited,
symbolic and barter trade that has been going on for 11 years now. The trade,
limited as it has been, did not achieve much – it could not have under the
restricted circumstances – but the local merchants saw it as a harbinger of the
times to come, as and when things get better between the two sides. The limited
trade showed the Kashmiris on either side that Kashmir’s glorious and
regionally-interconnected past needn’t be forgotten forever. This also
highlighted that the trade could persuade policymakers on either side to
advance it further, by way of opening more trade routes, trading more items and
making Kashmir the hub of the South Asian regional economic engine. No, I am
not daydreaming here: go back to the narratives before and during 2008 and you
will see these were the dominant narratives of those days. During a recent
visit to trading points I witnessed how exceptional civility and calm prevailed
between the two armies in the vicinity of the trading centres even though they
were firing incessantly at each other not too far from the sanitised trade
centres.

Let me tell you why I think New Delhi has shot itself in the
foot by suspending the cross-LoC trade with Pakistan. While the cross-LoC trade
and other CBMs, like the bus service, were being negotiated with the Pakistani
side in the mid-2000s, there was a certain amount of hesitation there which
arose from the argument that New Delhi’s focus on CBMs is to obfuscate the
political resolution of the Kashmir conflict. Put differently, many in Pakistan
believed that India was laying a well-planned “CBM trap”, and Pakistan
shouldn’t fall into that because once the CBMs were in place and begin to
function properly, New Delhi would argue that CBMs are the resolution to the
Kashmir conflict. For Pakistan, on the other hand, CBMs are at best a pathway
to reach the larger endgame which is the resolution of the Kashmir conflict
itself in a political manner. In a sense then, the current resistance within
Pakistan to the Musharraf formula is also a reflection of this thinking, that
Musharaff formula for the resolution of the Kashmir conflict reduces it to the
level of CBMs, thereby diluting Pakistan’s stated positions on Kashmir.

In that sense then, not only has New Delhi given up on this
nuanced national interest-based position on CBMs, it has gone to the other
extreme today by saying that it is simply not keen on resolving Kashmir though
dialogue and concessions. By arguing, if not practising, that ‘talks and terror
cannot go together’, New Delhi has, for sometime now, decided to normalise
Kashmir through sheer force which clearly helps the ruling dispensation from a
domestic political point of view.

That said, it is also true that there is palpable
disinterest in both the capitals in taking the cross-LoC trade to the next
level. Why, for instance, can the two countries not invest in full-body truck
scanners to ensure that explosives or contraband do not find their way into
each other’s’ countries? Why is it that there is little enthusiasm today for
enhancing the items on the trading list or putting in place proper banking
mechanisms to support the trade? The currently-suspended barter, blind trade is
a farce and should be called so. While there may be some merit in New Delhi’s
concerns about the Hawala transactions linked to the cross-LoC trade, doing
away with trade altogether to stop that is like throwing the baby out with the
bathwater.

The natural question that arises now is whether this is the
end of the road for the cross-LoC CBMs or whether this is a temporary hiatus.
Will the bus-service be suspended as well? I seriously hope it is a temporary
halt. If not, the undoing of Kashmir CBMs will take the Kashmir discourse back
to a zero sum game where an ‘all or nothing’ narrative will prevail with little
role for midway approaches like the pursuit of CBMs. Let me end by reiterating
that the cross-LoC CBMs are not just CBMs, they are part of a broader vision
for conflict resolution and we must not allow that vision to disappear into
thin air, at the altar of narrow political worldviews and immediate electoral
gains.

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