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Won't be long now.

Dream all you want about trillion-dollar platinum coins. I’ll bet you that sometime in the next two months the United States of America will default on its debt, temporarily but definitively.

Of course, eventually there will be a deal and all the creditors will get paid in full. But the default will be the price of getting that deal done.

There will be a default because it will serve the interests of both Republicans and Democrats. And while the effect on the economy won’t be pretty, it’s likely to be less dire than the nightmare scenarios making the rounds.

The nation is getting used to the notion that it’s increasingly ungovernable. It’s not counting on some Washington masterstroke; hasn’t for some time.

For Republicans, an unprecedented debt default is the most realistic prize to aim for in the coming crisis. Ostensibly they want spending cuts, of course, because—sarcasm alert—these have worked out so wonderfully for Europe. But while talk of living within our means may play well in the home districts of Republican congressmen, the cuts in social programs that additional austerity would require remain unpopular nationwide and highly unlikely to be accepted by Democrats except as part of the much discussed but increasingly remote grand bargain.

So the beast of government won’t be starved; it will be fed because most of the populace wishes it. But if it can’t be killed at least it can be humiliated for a time, and what better way of doing that than leaving the government unable to pay its bills.

Doing so will score points with Tea Party voters, ensure a steady flow of TV appearances and keep the debt counter running on Fox News to underscore the point that, yes, the national debt is very large.

The Republican Party has no obvious path to power at the moment, so it’s in no mood for statesmanlike compromise. It’s in the mood to make waves and score symbolic points, and a default accomplishes all that.

And Democrats? They saw Republicans lose ground in the polls and with voters after precipitating the last debt ceiling crisis in 2011. They can just keep pointing out that the debt ceiling prevents the U.S. from paying bills for spending Congress has already approved, and watch the Republicans take the heat should Social Security checks not go out on time, or should the U.S. credit rating suffer another downgrade.

President Obama said after the fiscal cliff deal that he won’t negotiate over the debt ceiling. And while he said that in 2011 too before giving ground, this time around there’s a good reason to believe him.

In 2011, a recession caused by a default would have dramatically lowered the president's reelection chances. But he’s not running for office again, while Congress faces another election next year. So the political risk is lower for Obama and higher for congressional Republicans than it was 18 months ago.

But what about the risk to everyone else? Won’t the markets go haywire should the United States start missing required payments? Frankly, the risks seem lower than Washington’s “responsible adults” like to pretend.

Interest rates are not likely to spike, because no one thinks the U.S. won’t pay everything it owes eventually. In fact, the likelier scenario is that the yields on longer-dated U.S. debt would drop after a default as markets bet that the standoff will undermine the economy.

Stocks would likely tumble as well. But if the S&P 500 somehow managed to hang around current levels until the very brink of a default and then plunged 11% all the way back to 1300, in Washington that’s known as a rounding error.

Once the default happens, all the news channels run their crisis specials and the D.C. switchboards get flooded with angry calls, both parties will have accomplished their aims and be ready to deal. Republicans will have made the government look bad. And Democrats will have allowed Republicans to show they’re irresponsible.

At that point, the debt ceiling is likely to get extended. Not for a year or two—that’s so very 2011. But perhaps for six months, or maybe just for a month while budget negotiations continue ahead of a looming deadline at the end of March. Welcome to the permanent crisis. It’s the only way our increasingly dysfunctional government can get things done.

If we’re lucky, the economy will continue to limp along under the twin burdens of uncertainty and austerity. It’s not as if confidence is high and could be headed for a plunge—among small business owners, it remains at recessionary levels.

Or maybe we get another recession—getting that out of the way this early in an election cycle might actually prove to be a political advantage for incumbents. Recession is anyway a logical destination for austerity-minded Republicans eager to follow Europe’s example. And Democrats, who have already conceded against sound counsel that the budget must be cut right now, seem perfectly willing to let their foes go there.