Now I understand, stated "residual value" dictates the payment heavily. But these models listed have very little connectivity/consistency to each other (ie. the M5 is only 64% more expensive in price than the Z4 M, but 117% more expensive on monthly payment (and a 64% increase in down payment from $2500 to $4100 only takes off $50 bucks monthly on the M5 to $1405). So, its quite disproportional.

Obviously, the M5/M6 models don't hold value as well as the lower price models.

1. Should we see "relative" residual value holding closer to the Z4 M or the M5?
2. What is the expectation of residual of the M3 versus these other models.
3. E46 M3 owners: what did you experience in lease rates/residuals vs. E39 M5 at the time you bought?

I'm pulling this out of my @ss but if I had to guess, most leases on the M3 out the gate will likley be over $1,000 per month which really sucks. I'm hoping to get it under $1K since I will likely be getting mine about a year after the release in November '08 (lease expiration on my S4).

I doubt it. You can finance out over 60 months for $1100/mo. A 36mo lease should never be more than a 60 month purchase. I think I'm planning on something around $1000. If its more than that, I'll plan on purchasing.

New M3 Lease calculation: For the purpose of example, referring to the March captive lease rates for a 12,000/yr 36 mo lease and using the M5's Residual Value of 59%, and the 335i's Money factor of .00160, with $2.500 down and a MSRP of $62,000, the monthly lease payment would be $790.39 plus tax. Not bad!

Just 5mos. ago the cheapest M car the M roadster originally on BMWUSA.com was leasing for $1,100/month.........on a frickin 56k car!!!!!

BMW is not stupid, they will maximize profit and keep leases high until demand becames to subside a little which is usually 2-3 years into it......

Now if you have an M3 base w/no options than you might get something around a grand........

Oh, and forget 60mos. being cheaper- BMW wants you back after 3 years so their 42/60 mos. leases are higher than their 36... Just check out BMWUSA.com and build your own and you'll see what I mean.....

Well, either BMW is stupid, or their customers are. There is no freaking way that a $56K car could lease for $1100/mo on a 36/12/2500 scenario...and it would actually sell. Why would you, when you could finance out over 60mo and sell in 3 years. Its just makes no financial sense. Unless, of course, you're willing to pay for the ease of just dropping your car off at the dealer after 36 and handing them the keys (and then writing a check for door dings and worn tires). Assuming your claim is real about a Z4 M going for 1100 a month - the money factors must have been just stupid. Hence, BMWFS is....

In 36 mo, your principle balance would be roughly 44% of your original balance (or 25,000 assum. 6.75%). Where as, according to an estimated 59% after 36 months, would be $33,000. Which in all reality, true market value will probably be around 65+%.