Tag Archives: humidity

Record Scorcher Across Western Pacific, Blowing Yellow Sand Tracks To Japan’s Northeast

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Intense heat induced by prevailing “Ridge of High Pressure,” along the Northwest Pacific has caused record-high temperatures across Southeast Asia. In Manila, Philippines alone, the state weather bureau, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has yet again raised the alarm of excessive heat in the metro where Mercury rising rapidly at maximum of 36.8C at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), recorded at Science Garden in Quezon City, and a lot higher at 38C in Cabanatuan City. Many Filipinos have been trying to keep cool under the heat of the Sun as this year’s Summer heat was among the most intense since 2010.

As the heat continues to peak usually this April, a respite from all these has not yet arrived and there had been observations that in the country alone, for the last decade, the number of hotter-than-usual periods have become more evident, which now ushers lesser number of hours of cooling, as a result, the relative humidity in cities across the country have been intensely associated with the prevalence of concrete structures and lesser vegetation as compared to the rural areas where lush trees, open spaces and adequate interval between structures can still be found.

At some point there had been sporadic rains associated with the “Orographic lift,” from which warm air collides with cold air, where such occurrence usually happen along the terrains or near bodies of water, that could produce precipitable water in the clouds, that could propagate rain-bearing thunderstorms, if all things go well into place.

Fig. 1.0 "Westernpacificweather.com's newest Surface Analysis now available to viewers in the region. This innovation has been made possible to provide informational tools to all our valued guests and viewers who continues to support us! Map Courtesy: MTSAT-EUMETSAT."

In Thailand capital Bangkok, temperatures soar at 40C, one of the most extreme in the region so far, wherein Tropical moisture have become trapped especially in the metropolis heat where paved roads, wide concrete spaces and towering superstructures tend to trap in the heat and increase the “Real-feel,”of the human body as relative humidity also shoots up and as “H2O molecules,”becomes super-heated, the air becomes rapidly evaporates and condensation do not eventually result to rain-bearing clouds, which only add up to the unbearable heat.

Terrible Heat Spawn Thunderstorms

Usually, “Cumulonimbus,” (Cb) clouds form due to rising of warm air and colliding with cooler winds produce rain-bearing clouds, but are commonly referred to as developing thunderstorms, which shoots higher into the upper atmosphere several thousands of kilometers in altitude to begin a process of evaporation and condensation that could potentially bring some severe weather, at some point lead to “Hail” storms and in some occasions, they become so severe, it may produce some “Tornado,” in the process.

Malaysia Peninsula, however got some cloudy periods but less rainfall was being reported. Borneo however, has gotten some precipitation today under the intense tropical heat.

Severe Weather Over Hong Kong Territory

In Hong Kong, authorities have been issuing warnings for potentially “Severe,”storms brought about by a lingering “Low” over the territory which has traversed Central China for the last two (2) days. It has already brought huge amounts of rainfall and lightning storms can be seen across the metropolis throughout the night. The said weather system should continue to track Eastwards, reaching Northern Taiwan by tomorrow afternoon, and by Sunday, it should affect the Southern seaboards of theKorean Peninsula and once again, Japanese coast can expect another wave of severe weather, with potential for high winds, thundery rains well into Monday work-week if the system does not stall over the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan in the process.

At the moment, a choking and blinding “Dust storm,”from the Gobi Desert, has been whipping towards the Yellow Sea from Northern and Eastern Chinese border. The Westerlies prevailing over the region, compounded by dry winds blowing to the East, as the exiting “Low,” that has traversed over Japanese Islands these past few days have been tracking Northeastwards, pulling along with it the “Yellow wind,”dubbed as “Aeolian sand,” which has now reached the Northernmost region of Hokkaido.

The said phenomenon intervenes with visibility in the region, and at times, cancellation of transportation can add up to the anxiety especially during windy conditions.

Tropical Disturbance “97W,” has been battered by the persistent “Ridge of High Pressure,” North of it for the last three-four (3-4 ) days now, and the compounding drier region of air mass has been inflicting detrimental conditions to its “Low-level circulation center,” (LLCC). The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Hawaii Island, USA has pegged the system has a “Low” chance of development.

Looking Forward Into The Forecast

Meanwhile, the trailing Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Tropics, has been more evident along the lower Pacific, near the Equator, which has yet to usher more thunderstorm activity Westwards, and has a potential to spawn a Tropical Cyclone in the foreseeable weeks.

This would be all for now, from your Weatherguy, hailing from the Philippines! =)

Iloilo City, Philippines, 23 April 2012, (1600Z)–Earlier on Sunday, 22 April 2012, a massive “Low” forges forward off the Yellow Sea, and into West & Southern Japanese Islands, bringing heavy rains and sporadic thunderstorms which has become severe in Naha, Okinawa and the Ryukus Region, and Muroto, just Southwest of Tokushima. The severe weather has also caused disruptions in transportation as dangerous conditions such as flooding potential and occurrence of “Tornadic” activity was not ruled out by the local authorities.

According to Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the deep “Low” Pressure system was causing windy conditions and rough seas, along the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. The highest winds were recorded near Ryukus Islands, where based on ASCAT wind analysis, I have been observing that top winds have reached to 50 kt (92 km/hr) at most, with stronger gusts as the system continues to drape the Japanese mainland with much convective clouds, and trailing along with it was an active“Front,” anchored along another area of “Low,” just off Hainan Island, in China.

JMA has been issuing several watches on the severe thunderstorm activity affecting the Ryukus Islands, and some parts of Fukui Region, and in Tsuruga, where the agency has been watching a potential for a “Tornado,” of which they have been issuing a “Level 1,” advisory there since 1500-JST (0600Z/0200PM-PHL/MAL).

Heavy precipitation was being observed also especially along Naha, in Okinawa Island, and in Ryukus Islands, wherein rainfall accumulation has reached to 150 mm to 200 mm in just 2 hours of intense rainfall brought about by the system. There were no reports of damage to property or injuries associated with the storm in the region.

The storm has been especially slow in its track Northeastwards, but remains “Quasi-stationary,” at the moment along Vladivostok, the Russian Federation territory.

High Pressure Ridge Pushes “Front,” To Dip South, New “Spring Storm” In Progress

The said “Front,”was being forecast to move through along the Okinawa Region within the next 12 hrs, pushing the “Low,” clear off Japan’s West and Central Prefectures by early Monday afternoon. Having said that, the “Front,”was being pushed ultimately Southwards by a dominant “Ridge of High Pressure,” that has been persistent for the last four (4) days along the East Chinese mainland, causing the spillage into the Northwestern periphery of Luzon and the Taiwanese Islands, in between Batanes Island Group and the Babuyan Channel to the North of the Philippines. This has been the reason for a surge of cooler air mass from the West Philippine Sea, a.k.a.“South China Sea,” which has been oscillating some thunderstorms across the Northernmost towns of Luzon, especially along Cagayan and Isabela Provincesto theEast, and the grand Cordilleras Region to the Center of Luzon, flanked by Zambales to the West, and Manila in the farther South of it.

As the sweltering heat continues to take its hold across Southeast Asian Region, I have been positive in noting that in the coming 2-3 days, another “Spring Storm,”is forecast to head towards Eastern China, and through Tuesday or Wednesday into the new working week, the Korean Peninsula and Japanese coast could expect another round of severe weather and dipping temperatures especially in higher elevations, more specifically in Sapporo and Hokkaido’s Northernmost tip this week.

Meantime, Hong Kong could yet again experience another week of severe weather as two (2) brewing storms off Central China has been developing for the last 24 hrs, and this could again spill some exceptionally supercharged atmosphere in the territory in the coming days, which the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has been closely monitoring its progress.

Flood Warnings For Mindanao, Scattered Thunderstorms Underway

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), based in Quezon City, Philippines has been issuing a warning on potential flooding along Mindanao, as the trailing effects of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the prevailing High Pressure affecting Luzon. This was being reflected in their 0900Z (0500PM-PHL/MAL) advisory on Saturday, 22 April 2012, which the agency did not made mention of a surging “Front,” emanating from mainland China, which could spell some respite from the searing heat that has yet jumped to 38.9C on the same day in Tuguegarao City, in Cagayan Province, and Manila sizzled at 36C, which are based on the highest reading that was obtained at 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL).

Based on the runs that I have been focused on, the surging “Cold air,” mass from the mainland China, colliding with the “Warm front,” from the East of the country could spell the “Orographic lift,” that could spawn some localized thunderstorm activity and increase convection along the coastlines of Palawan, Southern Visayas and Mindanao, and also along the West Philippine Sea, just West of Southern Tagalog Provinces and the Greater Manila Area (GMA) later today.

I am positive on this because the odds are getting better for “Rain showers,”in spots across the country’s Western seaboards and the Eastern coast of Mindanao and Visayas, specifically in Leyte-Samar Provinces, too. We’ll see about it later today when it finally happens.

Fig. 3.0 "An ominous thunderstorm activity which I took photo of on Sunday, 22 April 2012, 24-ft high above the ground over Iloilo City, Philippines. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

The problem I was encountering for almost two (2) years now is the absence of PAGASA’s Doppler Radar Imagery, which I have been consistently been campaigning them to officially open the said facility to public access considering the fact that it was bound to serve the greater purpose of educating most of the 92-million strong Filipinos in the country. I really don’t know why the weather bureau hides it from public eye.

I am calling the attention of the current administration, being led by His Excellency Benigno S. Aquino III, of the Philippine Republic, to look into this matter and forge a better organization within the system that governs the country’s weather bureau, whom enjoys a very unpopular reputation amongst majority of its constituency–the Filipino people deserve more from PAGASA, no more slump in forecasting capability, but an empowered workforce, better equipped agency with a primordial duty to protect its citizenry from the adverse effects of climatic challenges of perennial storms and recurring droughts.

Also, I have been monitoring the situation over Luzon, the rest of Southern Tagalog Regions for the last 48 hours, since we got some welcome rains here in Iloilo City on Saturday night, 22 April 2012, coupled with intense thunderstorm activity and rolling thunder across the horizon that could be heard from afar.

Fig. 4.0 "Thundery rains could be seen from afar, as Cb clouds hang low beneath the base of a developing thunderstorm anvil just overhead Iloilo City. Image Courtesy: Weatherguy Adonis."

Malaysia Is Never Far

Based on the Global Forecasting System (GFS), a lot of tropical rainfall could be persisting especially along the near-Equatorial Regions of Asia-Pacific in the coming days, which include our fellow weather caster, Francis Chuah, from Kedah, Malaysia’s Northwesternmost Region is currently located.

Mr. Chuah has been reporting that at around 1300Z (0900PM-PHL/MAL), there has been lightning and some thunder rolling through the night sky, and as the night progresses further, at around 1545Z (1145PM-PHL/MAL), rains have finally fallen in his location. This was also confirmed by their Malaysian Meteorological Department (MalayMet), through Doppler Radar Imagery.

At the onset, there has been two (2) separate “Lows”affecting Malaysia Peninsula and Borneo, which could induce more tropical rains within the next 2-3 days in the forecast. Summer heat can become unbearable especially between early 0200Z (1000AM-PHL/MAL), and 0700Z (0300PM-PHL/MAL), which are mostly affecting the “Diurnal” episode of the convective processes of condensation and evaporation rate per area, that also would depend on the prevailing “Warm air,” and “Cold air” masses that collides which should provide an “Orographic lifting,” that provides the formation of Cb clouds, between low and high elevations. This process also allows the air masses to rise and cool down almost instantaneously as it generates “Humidity,” which result to “Precipitable” cloud formations, and on the most favourable of all conditions, it yields what we call, “Rainfall.”

Long Wait Now Over As Storm Makes Into Land Earlier Than Expected

Iloilo City, Philippines, 01 April 2012, (0830Z)–Finally, Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR” made it to land. The long wait is now over for most of the region weary of the situation so critical for millions of people in Viet Nam who were quite uncertain of their fate as a Tropical system threatened their way of life for the longest time.

The Viet Nam Peoples’ Navy (VPN) has been issuing maritime warnings in the advance of the tropical system for more than 3 days now since the storm has been at very slow pace, resulting to thousands of fishing vessels and maritime activities to a standstill.

Sea-going vessels were being ordered to stay away from the range of the storm, which other ships near the Spratlys archipelago to this day are still anchored due to the cyclonic weather that continues to persist along the East China Sea, closest to the center of where the chaotic seas never fail to persist.

Fig. 1.0 "Tropical Storm 02W/PAKHAR lost its steam considerably over the past 12 hrs as it interacts with land mass before making landfall at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL). Image Courtesy: Digital-typhoon."

Land Interaction, Weak Inflow

Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,”regained some of its intensity yesterday after reaching a“Diurnal Maximum,”which corresponds to a 24-hour cycle life of a tropical system and especially affected by the easing essential “Inflow” from the North of the South China Sea as the Northeast Monsoon, a.k.a “Amihan,”in the Northern Region of Luzon, Philippines have provided such replenishment of favourable “Upper-level” push, sending much-needed moisture and momentum the past few days of its existence.

“Outflow” from the Southwestern quadrant of the system has been struggling to provide adequate moisture to fuel the increasingly exhausted source of energy–heat and humidity derived from the “Low-level winds,” that fairly provide constraint as regards to hostile 37-55 km/hr (20-30 kt) “Shearing environment,” which could prove fatal to tropical cyclones.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its analysis last night that the central convection that provide adequate banding within its LLCC was fair enough to support the theory that maintaining strength reaching 110 km/hr (60 kt) which average winds was about 101 km/hr (55 kt) along the Southwestern periphery of “02W/PAKHAR,” and“Atmospheric Pressure,” reaching to 988 hPa as indicated on their 1500Z issued bulletin last night, 31 March 2012.

Despite this, and the relatively low “Shearing environment,”our system has continually lost steam, finally succumbed to lower OHC and the lack of good outflow and the existence of a blocking Subtropical Ridge to the Northeast of it, just over mainland China was a conclusive determinant for a true West to West-northwest track towards Southern Viet Nam–this sealed the fate of our system as it starts to dissipate over land as of posting.Other Weather Systems Along Asia-Pacific

Since the La Niña-enhanced Easterlies have replaced the retreating “Monsoonal flow,” the source of such energy was snatched from our tropical system off the East China Sea two days ago, thus the weakening state of Tropical Storm “02W/PAKHAR,”and the increasingly hostile oceanographic conditions, which I was referring to as the increasingly cooler “Ocean Heat Content” (OHC) along the coasts of Southern Viet Nam extending to the Northeast to the regions of Hainan Island, China.

Fig. 3.0 "I made this Impression using the tools I have gathered depicting the interfering weather systems across Western Pacific Region that contributed to the demise of the former Category 1 Typhoon on 30 March 2012--a record for this year's Pacific Typhoon Season. Image Courtesy: NOAA."

Also, a developing return of a moderate surge of the “Northeast Monsoon” was evident along the Northernmost edges of Northern Taiwan yesterday, this should be closely monitored especially in my country, the Philippines, where the “Wetter-than-normal” conditions generated widespread flooding across the archipelago due to the prevailing influence of the easing “La Niña Event.”

Well-defined LLCC Before Making Landfall

Such ill-effectseffected a simmeringheat generated temperature along the immediate path of the tropical system, thus a weakening trend has caused a significant loss of ambient conditions for further development. This episode has wrought a disastrous result on the system’s life cycle from which adequate energy source, right variations of atmospheric values and warmer “Ocean Heat Content,” (OHC) are recipe for a perfect environment for tropical cyclones to undergo “Explosive Deepening” (ED) or otherwise known as “Rapid Intensification” (RI).

In the case of our tropical system at bar, there have been lacking variables that has degraded its size in meteorological aspect, which I would refer to its central pressure, diameter, wind intensity and the most important of all is the existence of warm sea surface temperature.

Accelerating Pace Towards Coast, Hits Land

An observation prior to its making landfall today, 01 April 2012, I have been observing that the system has jogged a bit faster on a Westerly to West-northwest trajectory towards Vung Tau, less than 30 km East-southeast of Ho Chi Minh City at around 2032z (432AM-PHL).

The JTWC pegged the system before making landfall at 75 km/hr (40 kt) sustained winds, and gusts reaching 101 km/hr (55 kt), with Central Pressure of 988 hPa, heading generally West at 11 km/hr.

The latest data I have come acrossed this afternoon, at around 0620Z (0220PM-PHL) and 0632z (0232PM-PHL), as evidenced by Vis Sat loop, a well-defined “Eye,” was evident and a “Central Dense Overcast,” where the intense winds along and heaviest rains are present was clearly seen wrapping the “Eyewall,” crashed into shore along the Southeastern coast of Viet Nam near Vung Tau.

Fig. 4.0 "A regional representation to clearly show the underlying factors that accelerated the landfall time frame of 02W/PAKHAR, indeed a formidable tropical system that lasted since the last 2.3 weeks as former Tropical Disturbance 96W on 17 March 2012. Image Courtesy: NRL Mry."

Immediately after the advancing Western Quadrant of the system moved past the coast, the ferocity of the winds interacts with land mass, which ultimately cuts the main source of moisture and heat derived from the Sea, and “Land interaction,” would mean winds abruptly makes “Friction” with terrain and “Drier Air Mass,” predominantly present on land, which could also overwhelm the river capacity, and pose a critical threat along the River basins, especially the heavily silted Mekong River system that could result to massive landslides and flash flooding event, not to mention the high surf conditions that could obliterate the coastal communities especially in those highly vulnerable infrastructures that tend to be swept away by strong sea currents and rising tidal surges associated with a “Storm Surge,” or abnormal rising sea levels during an approaching storm along the low-lying coast.
More details later tonight. If you are in Viet Nam and has invaluable data about the storm, please send us your comments and thoughts. We appreciate it but stay safe and keep dry! =)

This has been your Weatherguy hailing from the Philippines, Mabuhay! =)