CFI ANNOUNCES NEW TOOL FOR TRACKING THE PARTIES' INDEPENDENT SPENDING SHIFTS DURING THE CAMPAIGN'S CLOSING WEEK

Independent spending by the political parties has become crucial in the final days of close House and Senate elections. The parties would like to help all of their candidates in competitive races. But with the law permitting unlimited independent spending in any one race, the parties have to husband their resources carefully. The parties typically concentrate where they think it will do the most good, pulling back from contests that seem to be more clearly decided.

So far, the two Democratic congressional committees hold substantial advantages over their Republican counterparts. (The party committees were more evenly matched in past years.) As of October 26, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) had made $53.2 million in independent expenditures compared to the National Republican Senatorial Committee's (NRSC) $27.4 million.

There was an even wider gap on the House side, where the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had spent $52.3 million through October 26, compared to $11.4 million for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). Almost all of this $144 million has been reported by the four party committees as spending in opposition to the other party's candidates and not in support of their own party's.

The impact of these numbers is best seen by looking at the patterns formed out of individual races. To help election watchers make sense of shifts during the campaign's final week, the Campaign Finance Institute has developed an independent spending tracking tool to highlight where the parties are ramping up their campaigns, and where they may be scaling down.

The place to start is with tables on the CFI website showing independent spending by the party committees in every House and Senate race in which there has been any such spending during this year's general election (click here). Once in the table, users can click on the column headings to either focus on a particular congressional district number or state or rank order the races according to the amount of independent spending over the past seven days, previous seven days, or the total during the full election season.

The dollar figures and rankings on these pages will be updated on almost a daily basis. Here are a few examples of what a user can learn by sorting on the various columns.

SENATE ELECTIONS

Party spending shows the Democrats to be on the offensive in this election. Of the eleven states in which the DSCC has spent made independent expenditures, nine are being defended by Republican incumbents. On its side,, the NRSC has been helping five incumbents (in Oregon, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Minnesota and Mississippi), one challenger (Louisiana) and one open seat candidate (Colorado), while leaving the DSCC's spending unmatched so far in four states with Republican Senators (Kentucky, Georgia, Maine and Alaska).

Both party committees have put the North Carolina and Oregon Senate races at the top of their spending agendas for two weeks in a row. The DSCC has spent nearly $3.1 million in North Carolina to oppose Sen. Elizabeth Dole's reelection over the past seven days. According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, all of this was for media buys on October 21. This tripled a media buy that the Republicans placed the same day to oppose Kay Hagen, the Democratic challenger. The parties' expenditures were more evenly balanced in Oregon, where the NRSC's $1.1 million on October 21 to help incumbent Sen. Gordon Smith was countered by the DSCC's $1.3 million on October 21 and 22 to help the challenger, Jeffrey Merkley.

These Oregon and North Carolina races have been top-tier contest for several weeks. Better examples of shifting dynamics can be seen in some other Senate races. Democrats spent a small amount early to help the challenger in Maine, Rep. Thomas Allen, but have not spent there in recent weeks as incumbent Republican Susan Collins has opened a lead. In contrast, the DSCC put its first $2.8 million into Georgia in the past two weeks to attack Sen. Saxby Chambliss. The NRSC has not yet countered this effort, but news reports indicate that it will. And in Kentucky, the DSCC spent $1 million over the past seven days to attack Sen. Republican leader Mitch McConnell, on top of $486,000 the week before. The Republican Party has not countered the DSCC's spending as of this writing, but McConnell has a cash advantage in his own campaign committee over opponent Bruce Lunsford.

HOUSE ELECTIONS

Through October 26, the Democrats had put a total of $500,000 or more into 41 House races compared to only 9 for the Republicans. (Twenty-seven of the DCCC's races have gone above the $1 million mark for the general election compared to none for the NRCC.) As in the Senate, the Democrats are playing offense while the GOP is on defense. The DCCC's 42 races at $500,000 or more include 15 challengers, 16 open seat candidates and ten incumbents. The NRCC's nine half-million dollar seats include six incumbents, two challengers and only one open seat candidate.

A notch further down on the spending ladder, the NRCC spent $250,000-$499,000 through October 26 to support 13 additional candidates: three incumbents, two challengers and eight open seat candidates. At this level, the DCCC has supported 13 +candidates, including ten challengers, two open seat candidates and one incumbent.

Within the past seven days alone, the DCCC spent $500,000 or more in eight districts. In the following districts, the DCCC put $250,000 or more over the past week after not having made a previous independent expenditure in this election:

$297,116 to support Charles Brown in an open seat race against Thomas McClintock (CA-4);

$280,752 to support Tom Perriello against incumbent Republican Virgil Goode (VA-5); and

$257,612 to support Gary Trauner in an open seat race against Cynthia Lummis (WY-AL).

The NRCC has not spent $500,000 in any district over the past seven days. It has spent $250,000 or more in 12 contests. Major changes on the GOP list include the following:

An expenditure of only $37,795 to support incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21) over the past seven days after having spent $541,748 to support him the previous week. (The NRCC has not yet reported any independent spending to support Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25).

A first expenditure of $482,109 to support Erik Paulsen's open seat race (MN-3) against Jigar Madia (who has had $606,410 in DCCC support);

$479,910 to support incumbent Dave Reichert (WA-8) to bring him to a total of $540,202 in NRCC spending to counter the DCCC's $1.1 million to help challenger Darcy Burner;

A first expenditure of $352,763 to support challenger Louis Barletta against incumbent Democrat Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), who received $1.1 million in help from the DCCC;

A first expenditure of $326,568 to support open seat candidate Christopher Lee (NY-26) against Alice Kryzan, who has gotten $1.3 million in help from the DCCC;

A first expenditure of $301,299 to help Leonard Lance in an open seat race (NJ-7) against Linda Stender, who has $1,3 million in DCCC support;

A first expenditure of $272,758 to help Steven Guthrie's open seat race (KY-2) against David Boswell ($804,206 in help from the DCCC).

Of course, these listings are not by any means final. Over the campaign's final week, some races will go up on the parties' lists of potential opportunities (or risks) and some will move down. The Democrats clearly are better positioned than the Republicans at this point to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. But being well positioned does not produce a victory unless it is followed by sound execution. CFI's independent expenditure tool will help users follow the parties' execution on almost a daily basis. We are pleased to make it available at the following link: