Robert Skidelsky, Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University and a fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, is a member of the British House of Lords. The author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, he began his political career in the Labour party, b… read more

步步为营靠近特朗普

上一次类似的情形发生在两次世界大战期间，即1914年到1945年。当时的世界“崩塌”被叶芝1919年的《基督再临》（The Second Coming）所捕获：“一切都四散了，再也保不住中心，世界上到处弥漫着一片混乱。”传统规则制度彻底被战争羞辱，合法性的真空被强大的煽动者和民粹主义独裁填补：“最好的人没人信，最坏的人充满激情。”斯宾格勒在1918年出版的《西方的衰落》（Decline of the West）中提出了相同的思想。

Comments

Small minded people have been manipulated and brainwashed for centuries by religion, and they are now being brainwashed and manipulated by media. It’s nothing new except for the ones who though the fight was over.

Obama had a mandate to change and did nothing. He compromised, like Tony Blair did before, and empowered the inequality by being Ok with it. Off-shoring, outsourcing and free-trade have been flags for the right/conservative moment for ages, and now Globalization its being pinned on the progressive/libs/left…

Serves us right for not being able to keep our leaders truthful to our ideals.Read more

Robert, how can you explain then that the ones who are revolting against the increasing inequality voted for someone who is the epitomy of the 1%.

How can you explain that the ones who are not rich, voted for less taxes on the rich...

Sorry, but this isn't about economy, this is about rage. We have seen this throughout history, progressive movements stopped by small minded people, and you know what, you cannot reason with small minded people.

Stop trying to find middle ground, this is not possible, and start preparing to fight, like our progressive ancestors did…Read more

Excellent piece. Brexit could have been avoided: it would have required Cameron to give British citizens the same rights as German citizens, and take EU rules, regulations to court, and give parliament the power to say nay. It was in his power to do so. He chose not to because he in effect believed in the EU as a supranational, organisation. Merkel could have agreed that free movement was not the alpha and omega of the EU. But she did, because she believes in the federal end goal. Both are ideologues. They have sown, and we reap. Skiddles proposal is nonetheless not too late. Read more

The election of Donald Trump is a rejection of the leftist/progressive policies (much different from liberal policies, I might point out) of Obama and a response to the failures of US Federal policy, both domestic and foreign, for 16 years. The US has lost 70,000 factories and 5,000,000 jobs since 2000. Median income in the US was $58,000 in 1999; it is now $51,500. 160,000,000 people in the US control 1% of its total assets. That is why Trump was elected. The US electorate simply wants an opportunity to advance. They are not asking for redistribution of someone else's wealth. They want meaningful work; the quality job that was exported to Mexico in exchange for its avocados and tomatoes. They want a government that sets policy to grow the US economy. The people want the opportunity to send their children to college, something they may not have been able to do. It represents the rejection of the "Davos Think" - globalization at any cost; ignore the displaced workers; assume everyone aspires for a bigger cheaper flat screen TV's and ever cheaper material goods. There is a way to bring jobs back to the US - tax policy; regulatory policy; energy policy; depreciation rules, etc. Trump will also look out for "American interests" first, which is nothing new. Every country looks out for its interests first and foremost. That does not mean abandoning allies and old friends. It means reviewing trade agreements and treaties with a goal to improve them and share both risks and costs in a more balanced way and provide long-term security for the US and its citizens. America will not abandon the world but it will not make the same mistakes George W. Bush made and it will not continue down the deadend path of Obama's leftist policies. Read more

I think that's a good summary of legitimate problems in 21st century America John -- but it doesn't address the naiveté required to believe that Donald Trump and the alt-right can or really wishes to fix any of them. I can't understand what if anything in Trump's history or observable character lead you and others to imagine otherwise.

What I do understand is that he and people like Bannon can do serious and perhaps irreparable damage in the next four years and leave a situation that is much worse than the one we find ourselves in now. If nothing else and at a starkly human level, I think you have to consider the example the man has set for our children. Read more

I think this is just desperation talking. Trump is now the desert mirage liberals see? Whatever Trump proclaims he will do, he's only saying to get elected. Yes he's tapped correctly & skillfully into the veins of discontent but it's all for himself. He won't fight for the good he's promised if it gets too hard or risky for him. He will try only if it suits his own survival. Trump is in bed with the most destructive & powerful republican govt in history & the most extreme right wings ever in recent memory. I have very little hope any of Trump's supposedly liberal policies will ever come true. Read more

I can agree to what is said in this article as many below have expressed their agreement. And I am very much encouraged to read the comments below. So let me say just two things. First no one can tell with much assurance at this moment what the new president will do but there are opinions in Japan that he will more likely enact policies that will be pleasing to a small nuber of people or the one percent.Second economic liberalism is antipathetic to, and belittles, political power in its customary belief that focusing on the pursuit of economic self-interest alone and nothing else does the necessary job, automatically bringing a harmonious society as if by "the invisible hand," and maintaining a democratic society. But the truth is that even a democratic society needs political power and the political power needs to be absolutist in the sense of binding every citizen. And a society deeply divided like between one percent and ninety-nine cannot remain democratic. Read more

Robert, interesting and I think you have uncovered a few pearls there. I think one of the biggest failures of neo liberal politics is the evident weakness of the various protagonists, especially when negotiating Trade deals. I find it unbelievable that virtually everything we buy both in the USA and the UK appears to be manufactured in China, yet when we ask what do we sell to China (on both sides of the pond) there is a deafening silence. I think what has happened while our backs have been turned, is that unpatriotic companies driven by greed, have flocked into China deserting their heartlands in the west and have plundered the communities which they have left with very little in return.

With our pension funds and our taxes we seem to be investing in China whilst leaving our own industries to rot.

Without any serious reciprocation China has basically grown at our expense. We have to work hard now to start addressing the balance of trade deficits. For example, why does the UK allow rich Chinese to buy our property in London yet it is very difficult to buy land or property in China? We have to start having an equivalence of free trade. We need to make sure that if countries want to trade with us then there has to be the same degree of reciprocation otherwise forget it. Read more

What Mr. Trump could do is to forget about its business interests and to seek a new profile as a political leader. He was not endorsed by the economic elites (this means by the capital), he was endorsed by the left-behind. So, it would not be treason of his electorate. He woulh have the chance to become the FDR of the second decade of the new century. But, does he have the intellectual potential to grasp this chance given to him? Read more

Regarding plutocracy, America is becoming like China where the coastal states prosper at the expense of the inland states due to trade imbalances. Balanced trade is not protectionism. It is intelligence. Read more

I was critical of the article you wrote post-Brexit whilst agreeing with you on its economic lunacy. This time praise where it is due. The world I grew up in was one shaped by wars and the men who fought in them. A few of them, Macmillan & Churchill were in the trenches. They knew the value of their fellow man, however humble. The post war consensus, Labour and Tory, was that we'd build the peace together. This concept died with Thatcher. Society died and was asset-stripped. The asset sales staved off revolution when we had 3 million unemployed, but there was no re-investment as Mazzucato calls for. Once the capital was squandered we found ourselves living beyond our means. We'd sold all the profitable monopolies who proved adept at avoiding and evading tax. They also proved attractive to foreign buyers who added HQ costs to their subsidiary to reduce their UK tax bill. The State can no longer provide the care it did in the past. The game is up. Nations are now run for the benefit of a small elite. But there's no demand for the goods they produce as 90% of the population has no spare cash after the household bills are paid. Until this is addressed the major economies will continue to bump along the bottom. Tax cuts for corporations and the 1% will do nothing to fix things. Read more

Cannot allow this to go unanswered.Society did not die under Thatcher; it was unequivocally saved from utter domination by extremely active communists PLUS, as we now understand with the benefit of hindsight, fellow travellers in the long term pay of the USSR such as the TUC Gen Secy. Jack Jones. The so called "consensus" between Labour & Tories was an absolute disaster economically & in fact was simply fear in the face of an unremitting Trades Union push for domination, by them, of the country and what would have been left of our democracy. The NUM - specifically Scargill & McGahey - were quite clear that the intention was to bring down the Government & return to the economically incompetent & completely destructive policies of Wilson & Callaghan et al. I have to include the disastrous Heath administration too, since he led a compliant & fearful team, worried more about the TUC reaction to everything they did & failed the leadership test 100%.

Clinton and Trump both are in the service of those who really rule (i.e. the ruling elites). It is very likely Trump will NOT do exactly as he has promised (e.g. build fences, ban Muslims e.t.c.)

It is possible, Trump's presidency this will help put an end to or deescalate the confrontation between the US and Russia (in Syria and elsewhere). Moreover, it is possible, Trump's presidency will helpdecelerate or put some break to the advent or the "progression" of neo-liberal globalized capitalism. Finally, the ruling elites (those who are really in power) must have understood clearly by now that: (1) common people hate the idea of a dictatorship by few multinational corporations and the inhumanity imposed (i.e. globalization) (2) people oppose the prospect of a world war III and want peace, instead (3) Television and the mass media do not have omnipotence over people (i.e. the phony virtualrealities projected by TV are in no position to do a mass-scale manipulation of people's attitudes, beliefs and behaviors).

In short, it is very likely that under Donald Trump leadership, both world war III and globalization will have to wait!!! The system is about to make some concessions!!!Read more

Recall that the first real implementation of modern Keynesianism (deficit spending, monetary expansion coupled with capital and currency controls) was Nazi Germany's massive rearmament and infrastructure spending in the 1930s.

By forcing the western democracies to follow suit, this turned the rather ineffectual New Deal into a true economic stimulus program that finally eliminated unemployment and cut the "fetters of gold" (the Gold Standard). Read more

And more surprise election results are almost guaranteed over the next few months.

Upcoming elections in Italy, France, the Netherlands, and more, have the potential to upend the carefully crafted world of the 'elites' -- a world where the top 2 quintiles personally benefited greatly via tax policy (major benefit) and globalization (minor benefit) but also a world where the bottom 2 quintiles were supposed to make-do with a rapidly declining standard of living and not have the audacity to complain about it.

Well, that plan is out the window!

Brexit, was a rejection of the democratic deficit in Brussels, as much as it was rejection of the crass and careless disregard for the economic health of the bottom 2 quintiles in the United Kingdom, as displayed by the global elites.

It all reminds me of the Twisted Sister song from the 1980's -- "We're not gonna take it!" (Anymore)

Check out those lyrics!

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/twistedsister/werenotgonnatakeit.html

I suggest that any candidate (even liberal 'elite' candidates!) that choose that as their theme song will win a majority government.

Why? Because that perfectly sums up the mood out there in the world.

And what world is it, that engenders such a response?

It's a world where 1 percent of the world's population owns more than 50% of the world's wealth -- and by 2030 the 1 percent will own more than 75% of the world's wealth.

Looking at it from a different perspective... in 2030, ninety-nine percent of the world will be forced to live on only 25% of the world's total wealth!

World Wars have begun over less.

And who created such a world? The global 'elites' -- and there is nobody else to blame, there is nowhere to run, and there is nowhere to hide.

(I wouldn't be a global 'elite' for all the money in the world, in 2030)

If the 'elites' think that Brexit and Trump *are the end* of the protest against the present (warped) world economy, they have their heads buried in the sand.

And anyone who didn't see this coming has no business being in public office, nor should they be calling themselves 'elite'.

If Brexit succeeds, and if president-elect Trump succeeds, the fire *may* subside by half -- if not, the 'elites' will have created a scalding pot for all of us to boil in. Thanks for that.

Great to read your fine essays here at ProSyn, Robert. Thank you for publicly posting them.

Just a reminder that it was the liberal global order of free trade that brought China into the world economic syatem, resulting in the largest, fastest ever reduction in absolute poverty in the history of this planet. 800 million people - more than a tenth of the world's population - lifted out of destitution.

Nightmares of depression and war - necessary preludes ....The invention of Zero and The Decimal System - perhaps provides an analogy that explains.In Hindu Mantras, the key lines are repeated at intervals, interspersed to emphasize paragraphs of The Mantra.The Zero is similarly interspersed in The Decimal System - both marking the end and a new beginning.The process of Zero arriving after every nine numbers, is repeated ad infinitum.Zero often considered The Twin of Infinity.The road to Infinity seems interspersed with Zero at periodic intervals.TRUMP perhaps the Zero, that marks the end and a new beginning.Like Roosevelt in 1945. 70 years is the longest peace in a long time.

The Author is right in articulating exasperation with Meltdowns.But perhaps forgets that it is the Megalomania of The Majority that triggers Meltdowns.Truth often begins in a Minority of One - Brexit One was the first shot.Brexit Two - or Brexit plus plus as Trump prefers - still needs One more to complete The Trinity.The rumblings in Berlin perhaps the final prelude.Before The Trinity delivers The Truth - as Day follows Night.Nightmares - For Bethlehem to be born..... Read more

Is the author utterly illiterate or does he simply assume- this is the Keynesian beauty contest- we are?Yeats, like Gandhi and Chesterton, was a product of my neighbourhood- West Kensington. He wasn't a prophet surfing the atomized sand of some Desert tsunami.Why present an 'Establishment'- GOP or otherwise- as being able to 'go into overdrive'? Trump was the GOP candidate despite any overdrive it might have been capable of.Is there any truth in the author's view that he alone knows the essence of Trump? Does he really know some occult Economic Law which states that a Property Developer whose successful bid to develop the biggest possible Property available entails a 'break with' that 'continuitiy' by which his title is assured?No doubt, a different set of contractors will be employed. That isn't a break with continuity. It is proof that the previous bunch were a bunch of thieving incompetents.What does the author mean by 'powerful demagogues and populist dictatorships'? Obama had no money but he was a great speaker. That's why he beat Hillary. Was he 'a powerful demagogue'? Was the Tea Party's 'vetocratic' opposition to his 'wonkinsh' reforms actually a powerful defence against 'Populist dictatorship"?No.The author is writing in an ignorant manner because he thinks his readers are ignorant.Yeats did not have a 'religious eschatology'. His was a singular vision- and not sectarian at all. The author is writing in English. He is invoking a well known poet. Yet, he writes something utterly false and nonsensical. Why? Is it what Keynes would have done?Unlike the author, I know what Yeats actually said about the concept of 'vishodhana'- i.e the bloody purgation and re-birth of a social order. Yeats denied that it had any practical or prophetic meaning. It was metaphorical- I should say meta-metaphorical- simply.The author does not understand that the U.N had a predecessor- the League. 'Without Hitler-no U.N' is stupidity and ignorance of a reflexive type.Why speak of a Roosevelt rather than a Hitler? Neither could solve the underlying Economic problem. The New Deal failed, it ran out of steam, as did Schact's program (BTW he condemned Kristallnacht)- it was the War which restored Expectations to a positive sum 'Aumann correlated eqbm.'Why is this man mentioning Spengler? What point about 'Faustian Man' is he making? None. It's just noise, not signal, is all.Economics is a mathematical Research Program. Skidelsky hasn't kept up. Why? Editors are supposed to exercise a countervailing power over habit and senility.In this case, they have done neither.'Liberalism's third coming'? Seriously? This is how your editor's are gonna let this old man end his senile peroration?Shame on you Project Syndicate!

If Mr. Soros et al. could see him like you see him, instead of as the Second Coming of Adolf Hitler, much good could come from President Trump's presidency.

Resisting Trump, especially with violent protests, will just make him more popular with the American People.

''A politician who self-described as having a “Democrat heart with a Republican head,” Nelson Rockefeller would be something of a political anomaly today. Biographer Richard Norton Smith, author of “On His Own Terms,” joins Judy Woodruff to discuss what distinguished the four-time New York governor and former vice president.'' - http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/nelson-rockefeller-biography/

''Rockefeller was richer than Trump, a more gifted art-and-architecture patron, and less given to boasting. He had a much longer public career, from running FDR’s Latin American desk to being Gerald Ford’s vice president. But through all that, he was regarded by insiders as an unguided missile, not subject to institutional constraint, seeking power to do whatever he wanted. Rockefeller was elected governor when Donald Trump was twelve and served until Trump was 27 and about to make his jump to Manhattan.'' - http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424753/donald-trump-nelson-rockefeller-role-model Read more

Populism and anti-establishment movements are two totally different matters. Even the politicians or elected representatives themselves have lost any hope of dealing with their own establishments. The people exercised their democratic rights, whether in the UK or the US and everyone must respect the outcome. Trump always had it all (he does not need a tax payers funded private plane, he always had one, he does not need tax payers funded security personnel, he always had them, etc.) he never came from a poor background, and therefore does not need to worry about the day after. He must ensure however, that no continuity of anything takes place. He must undo everything that was done during the Clinton / Obama administrations. If he fails on his pledges, he shall be in big trouble indeed. In any event, Trump is a globalist, he invested all over the world and understands how business is conducted and one thing people can count on, is that he shall take no non sense from nobody, but it is too soon to judge, time will tell, he knows the system quite well and he knows how to deal with it. Read more

It has taken two political earthquakes to bring into prominence the futility that many academics have been trying to push down our throats. They alone are responsible for the chaos that we see in our streets today. They refused to accept the truth of the matter because they have also been mislead and now of course they are going to be dragged into a real world kicking and screaming pleading innocence. Blaming politicians was easy but how did they formulate their policies. Again it is easy to blame the lobbyists with the business connections but at least they did not try and hide the fact. If it’s to take a hitler to bring decency to the table then so be it because where we were headed would have been worse. And we could still go there if we are not careful... Read more

Anyone who ascribes anything other than tactical manipulation of a targeted demographic configuration, i.e., marketing, to Trump, or posits 'Trumpism' as other than an ad campaign, has himself been Trumped. Trump forthrightly states that he can 'negotiate' away part of US obligations, just as the Keynesians hide behind the money illusion and other camouflage to inflate away debt. Trump does it to 'win' while Bob & Co. do it to 'grow'. Read more

Nightmares come in forms other than those which produce Flanders fields where poppies blow between the crosses, row on row. Destruction of the environment pops to mind as an example. Overpopulation another. There are four horsemen, after all. Read more

We are all tribal but different tribes because of their different survival/prosperity mechanisms have different tribal parameters and rules of interpersonal engagement. These different interpersonal parameters are reciprocally influenced by macroeconomic parameters. A less cumbersome way of stating this rather complicated and multilayered thought is: people have different values and develop different needs based on their societal surroundings. One of the greatest disparities of these societally affecting values is the urban rural divide. My clinical work has increasingly focused on this for the last 20-25 years. It is now growing in the western world's spotlight because of the surprise/upheaval of America's vote results. What accounts for the differential urban-rural attitudes, needs, concerns, anger, and values that are reflected in our country's government-wide republican victory? It is clearly not restricted to The Donald vs Ms Hillary.Nor is it restricted to our country. I propose that it is a world-wide phenomena of long standing but with more recent effects. England, France, Italy, China, and other poli-economic entities are faced with two tribes that predictably divide on many factors. However these two tribes may be most easily identified by their geographies. Hence the maps that describe the counties that favored Democrats vs Republicans. City mouse tribe vs country mouse tribe. Absurd? Only to the demographically blind and deaf.Consider these quotes from this Reuters.com article. It doesn't consider other aspects of the rural-urban divide in all countries, only America.

REUTERS/NICK OXFORDBy Nick Carey | JANESVILLE, WISC...."The last few years, there hasn't been much optimism and hope among working people in rural areas in this country," said Lader, 65, who lives in the farmland outside the southern Wisconsin city of Janesville....The different worlds ... help illustrate the rural-urban divide that was critical to the outcome of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election....''A country once defined by regional voting now is more clearly divided by the differences between rural and urban voters. The combination of a strong Trump turnout in the countryside and a weak showing by Democrat Clinton in the cities went a long way toward deciding the election.'' ...

''Rural and small-town working-class white voters, who already tended to vote Republican, propelled Trump. Urban areas, where black and Hispanic voters are concentrated along with college-educated voters, already leaned toward the Democrats, but Clinton did not get the turnout from these groups that she needed.''...''Trump beat Clinton by 26 percentage points among voters who live in non-metropolitan areas, while Clinton bested Trump by about 7 percentage points in urban areas, according to the nationwide Reuters/Ipsos national Election Day poll.''...'THE PERFECT SLOGAN'Steven Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minnesota, said rural voters "feel they've lost something, that America is moving away from them."..."Trump came up with the perfect slogan for them in 'Make America Great Again' because it hits them exactly where they live," Schier said....''Democratic presidential candidates had won in Wisconsin in every election since 1988, until Trump's victory on Tuesday.''...

This would have been very valuable 6 months ago, when Democrat party leadership here in the US was overseeing the selection of the nominee -- and leaning on the scales for their favorite, as we've found out. (a "what if" poll 2 days before the election just now showed Sanders vs Trump as 56-44).

I hope that prominent policy advocates relax their loyal defense of the Clintons' rather loosely principled legacy, which involved absorbing many of Reagan-Bush policies on deregulation and offshoring. (As well as deeply flawed compromises on drugs/crime and welfare, done for the sake of scoring triangulation points with their political opponents). Moving away from these does not automatically mean adopting Trump's unacceptable positions. The point here is that it is not hard to find a better way, in fact it was right there all along. Read more

PB,Yes, a much better essay than I expected. Some people (including Lord Skidelsky) get it, others don't. Most of the cosmopolitan elite seem to think we were living in a perfect world until Trump crashed the party. Others seem to recognize that we weren't. Perfect for the elite, a disaster for everyone else. Read more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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