The ‘Riverboat Gamble’ of This Generation

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

Almost 30 years ago, Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker, candidly described the economic program of President Ronald Reagan, a fellow Republican, as a “riverboat gamble” that could reshape American politics and the economy.

These days, the ultra-partisan atmosphere in Washington, D.C., would prevent any sane member of the president’s party who agrees with his health care overhaul plan from making the same kind of observation.

Yet, from a political point of view, the Obama health care effort is every bit the gamble that Mr. Reagan’s effort was in the 1980s to rebrand the Republicans as the tax-cutting party.

That identity has remained with the GOP over the intervening decades, and despite some dissent from those who consider GOP a four-letter word, it can be reasonably argued that it has been a political plus for the Republicans.

It seems a reasonable bet at this point that the same situation is likely to play out in the coming years regarding the Democrats and health care. They will be known, for better or worse, as the party that changed (or tried to change) health care in the U.S.

Time will tell whether that association will be a plus or a minus for them.

A Popularity Issue

The January Senate race in Massachusetts, one of the bluest states in the country, shows just how big a deal the issue could be down the road. Republican Scott Brown won precisely because of his appeal to the widespread public opposition to the health-care overhaul plan. And it’s a fair bet that the proposed overhaul is probably more popular in Massachusetts than elsewhere because of the state’s strong Democratic tilt.

Because politics, not policy, is my area of alleged expertise, I am not talking here about the wisdom of the legislation that, until Mr. Brown’s election, seemed poised to pass Congress and to be signed by President Barack Obama. There are plenty of partisans to argue the pluses and minuses – as showcased at last week’s White House summit on the issue.

But there is little doubt that how the issue plays out in the coming months and how the American people feel about any changes that become law is likely to be a factor in our electoral politics come this November, in November of 2012, and perhaps decades of Novembers in even-numbered years thereafter.

Just as the Reagan supply-side economics policy, which depended on lowering tax rates to increase productivity, became synonymous with the Republican Party and its candidates, so too will the health care overhaul be firmly affixed to Democratic aspirants chests.

Whether that turns out to be an asset or a liability for them depends on how the overhaul plays in Peoria, Pittsburgh and Phoenix, should it become law. Today, it is very unpopular virtually everywhere in America. In fact, the longevity of the health-care overhaul’s identification with Democrats could be even greater and stronger than tax cuts link to the Republicans.

A Contrast With Reagan’s Tax Cuts

That’s because there was bipartisan support for Mr. Reagan’s tax cuts. A majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives in 1981 voted for them.

The Democratic-controlled House passed the Reagan tax cuts 323-107 with 133 Democratic members and all but one Republican voting for the legislation. In the Senate, 26 Democrats voted for the tax cuts and one Republican against them.

Contrast that relative bipartisanship with today. The health-care overhaul vote will be very different. The House and Senate votes on the two versions that made it through the respective chambers last year received a total of one Republican vote.

Clearly, Democrats will own the health-care issue for better or worse for some time to come.

On Wednesday, Mr. Obama plans to lay out his “way forward” on health care, and is expected to ask lawmakers to pass the Democratic health bill, perhaps incorporating some GOP ideas from last week’s summit.

Democrats argue that once the law is passed they can market its benefits to the American public in a way that was not possible during the sausage-making that takes place on Capitol Hill.

Maybe yes, maybe no.

Objections From Independents

But there is no doubt that at this point the health care overhaul is very unpopular with the American people.

A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that just over one-third of voters support the plan under consideration in Congress, which Mr. Obama subsequently used as the basis for his plan that is now the focus of attention. More problematic politically for Mr. Obama and his party is that they face a serious challenge in rebuilding the confidence of political independents — the key voting group in elections.

Mr. Obama carried independents handily in 2008, but by 60%-29% they oppose the health care plan. The Massachusetts Senate vote shows that this opposition translated into a strong protest vote against Democrats.

If the Democrats are able to pass the overhaul, their spinners will be out in force to claim how it will change America and its politics forever. If the GOP prevails in stopping the overhaul’s enactment, their folks will be claiming they saved the Republic.

Comments (2 of 2)

Of course part of the reason that it's unpopular is that it doesn't include a public option. Everyone who wanted a single payer system--arguably the simplest path to universal coverage--has been sidelined from the beginning of this process. The Republicans want to claim all the dissent as somehow favoring their position and it simply isn't so.

4:01 pm March 2, 2010

CommieBlaster wrote :

If you want to see where Obama’s going, you have to watch this Brand New, Viral

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