In a repeat of the 1991 Gulf War,
the US has completed building a coalition to back its military aims, and
has pressured two key nations, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, into reluctant
participation in President Bushs `crusade.

The US has two war aims. First, capture
or kill Osama bin Laden, who is hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan.
Second, overthrow Afghanistans de facto government, Taliban, and replace
it by the US and Russian backed Northern Alliance, which will open the
way for American-owned oil and gas pipelines running south from Uzbekistan.

As of this writing, the US apparently
lacks precise information on bin Ladens whereabouts. He may be hiding in
the extensive network of caves and tunnels in the Hindu Kush mountains
that he helped construct during the 1980s war against Soviet occupation.
Some reports put him in the remote Wakhan Corridor, a wild, uncharted,
region of high, snow-capped mountains that extends northeast to the Chinese
border. I know this remote area because in the early 1980s, I helped get
China to deliver machine guns and mortars across Wakhan by yak trains to
Afghan mujihadin forces battling the Soviets invaders.

Washington intends to send commandos
into Afghanistan, backed by 350-400 warplanes, C-130U `Spooky gunships,
and helicopter gunships flying from former Soviet bases in Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan. Delta Force, Navy Seals, Army Rangers, Marine recon units,
and light infantry from the 10th Mountain Division are slated to be used
ensuring all services get a share of the action and glory. US units will
work with Britains elite SAS, whose primary mission is reconnaissance and
targeting. Russia may send in its Spetsnaz commandos, and KGBs elite Alpha
assault team.

These forces are adequate for lightening
raids, but not for large- scale, sustained operations inside Afghanistan,
even against Talibans ragtag, lightly-armed, 30,000 tribal warriors. A
massive, Iraq-style bombing campaign is unlikely: medieval, famine-stricken
Afghanistan offers few military targets. Bin Ladens lair, and Taliban HQs
in Kabul, Jalalabad, and Kandahar will be the main targets for air and
ground assaults.

But locating bin Laden will be difficult;
capturing him, far harder. Afghanistans mountains are wild and jagged.
Frequent dust storms pose major dangers to helicopter operations. Inserting
helicopter-born troops into a narrow valley is perilous, particularly if
enemy forces control the high ground and can fire down at the aircraft
with heavy machine guns and RPG anti-tank rockets. This writer saw heavily
armored Soviet HIND helicopter gunships destroyed in this manner during
the 1980s war.

If bin Laden can be located but not
snatched, the US could attack him with still secret bombs that can penetrate
up to 30 meters of rock and earth and/or deadly fuel air explosives(FAE).
These `mini-A bombs release an aerosol of vaporized gasoline over a large
area, then detonate. The result is huge, lethal overpressure that ruptures
the lungs and other internal organs of anyone below, even those sheltered
in bunkers, caves, or basements of concrete buildings. The Russians make
extensive use of FAEs against Chechen independence fighters and civilians.

Failure to swiftly kill or capture
bin Laden has his few hundred armed supporters means the US may have to
deploy many more troops in Afghanistan likely from the 82nd and 101st Airborne
Divisions -and hunt for the elusive militant. Sweep operations seeking
the Scarlet Pimpernel of the Hind Kush would expose American soldiers to
clashes with Afghan fighters, accidents, and the 10 million or more mines
left behind by the Soviets. The US could quickly get bogged down in a chaotic,
lethal Beirut or Somalia-like situation where it is impossible to tell
friend from foe.

Washington clearly intends to put
the Northern Alliance into power. But this unsavory collection of ethnic
Tajiks and Uzbeks cannot hope to rule over Afghanistans majority Pakhtuns.
The last time a Tajik-led government held Kabul in 1994-5, it refused to
share power. The result was civil war. The Northern Alliance may have to
rely for survival on the bayonets of US and British troops.

Talibans Pashtuns say they will take
to the hills and wage guerrilla war against the Alliance, which is widely
viewed in Afghanistan as a creature of the Russians and Americans. Dj vu.
In 1983, US Marines were sent to Beirut to prop up a minority regime in
the midst of civil war. Hundreds of US Marines died.

Traditional warfare in Afghanistan
involves bribing tribal leaders to switch sides. This is how Taliban got
into power. US threats and money may induce some Pashtun tribes to ditch
Taliban and, if the US is very lucky, hand over bin Laden, dead or alive.
Pakistans intelligence agency, ISI, could play a key role in getting tribes
to abandon Taliban, though its level of cooperation with Americas war remains
in question.

War always has unpredictable consequences.
Once combat begins, the best laid plans go awry. The US must strike quickly
and decisively, or risk getting bogged down in an aimless war in one of
the world least accessible nations whose reputation as graveyard of invaders
is well and richly deserved.