Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

posted at 4:41 pm on October 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is the first time Romney’s been at least even with O in any Wisconsin poll since August, when he led by a point. The state’s not technically a must-win, but it’s mighty close: If Ohio falls through, Romney will need Wisconsin and New Hampshire (or Iowa) to put him over the finish line. And that’s assuming that he wins Colorado, which is now a dead heat. If he doesn’t, then Wisconsin is a must.

Ten days to go:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided…

A week ago, the president held a slight 50% to 48% lead. Earlier in the month, he was ahead 51% to 49%. In surveys in Wisconsin since October of last year, the president has earned 44% to 52% of the vote, while Romney’s support has ranged from 41% to 49%.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

He leads by six on the economy, another good sign. The bad news this afternoon? CNN’s new poll of Ohio has O up 50/46. And there aren’t a lot of undecideds left:

CNN’s sample is D+3. In 2008, Obama won Ohio by four and a half points — essentially the same margin as today’s poll — with an exit poll sample of, er, D+8. If you believe CNN, he also leads by five points among independents in Ohio, which is starkly inconsistent with the national trends. E.g.:

Of the last 17 OH polls, O has led indys in only 3 of them. Two of those three are from CNN/ORC. The other is Rasmussen twitter.com/NumbersMuncher…

Romney’s “ad bomb” is on the way too: The campaign is telling wealthy donors that they’ve been holding off on a blast of ad spending in key states until the final week of the campaign to maximize effect. All of that is reason for hope. The wrinkle is that, of the last 11 polls taken in Ohio, Romney has led in exactly none of them. He’s tied in three and trails O in the other eight. Either the pollsters are systematically lowballing him or he still has a little bit of ground to make up in the last 10 days. If, hypothetically, he doesn’t win either Ohio or Wisconsin, then we’re in longshot territory even if he ekes it out in Colorado. He’d need to win either Iowa + Nevada + New Hampshire, or he’d have to pull a major upset in Pennsylvania or Michigan. That’s a tall order if the vote is tipping against him narrowly in more hotly contested states like OH or WI. Luckily, it’s not tipping against him in Wisconsin right now. Virginia + Colorado + Wisconsin + New Hampshire/Iowa wins him the presidency, with or without Ohio.

Via Breitbart, here’s Scarborough wondering how The One can defy the gravity of a 47-48 percent ceiling in national polls to win. As Geraghty says, it seems increasingly likely that Romney’s going to win the popular vote, which almost always means winning the presidency. If he doesn’t, it’d be thanks to a herculean feat by Obama’s organization to drag apathetic liberals out to the polls.

Blowback

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So the 2.1 million are the missing Soledad O’Brian focus groupies? And they went for Obama 59/38.

Comedy Gold. Just cooking the books so they can show it in play. As polls tighten, they become more consistent, not less.

I hope this causes massive Dem spending to try for the win. I hope every State gets to see the “First Time” add. I hope they run the dunce cap. Spend it while you got it Dems. Or I should say, spend it while you can borrow it.

How exactly do they know how people voted in the early voting. Just because someone is either a registered Democrat or Republican, how do they know the nature of their votes?

Can’t a registered Dem vote for Mitt and vice versa?

Ohio doesn’t have voter registration by party. It’s all guesswork; probably very intelligent guesswork, but still guesswork. Living in Ohio, I’ve seen tons of adds and mail urging people to vote early – mostly from the Dems. (But the R Sec. of State did send out absentee ballots to every registered voter, whether we asked for one or not for some silly reason.) I suspect that some portion of people are telling the phone callers that they’ve voted already due to: 1. Pressure from the media blitz making it seem like that’s the expected thing to do; and/or 2. Thinking that it will stop the calls once you tell them you’ve already voted.

“OK Mr Brave, I already have a 100.00 dollar bet here. How about a 500.00 dollar bet with you? Are you BRAVE enough to accept or just an all talk, no action COWARD?

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Answer my questions first.

wargamer6 on October 26, 2012 at 5:39 PM”

Sure, I was wrong.

Now, got the guts to accept the bet? And if you want to make it higher/lower, just name the amount. I will enjoy taking whatever money you will wager. I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

I find the desperation of the media polls to be comical. The people on the ground in Ohio know the truth. The media’s and the trolls’ heads are going to explode on the 6th when Romney wins Ohio by at least 3.

Ah, I see CNN got their Democrat “pollster” ORC to massage the Ohio numbers upwards for O’bamna. In 3 “polls” all conducted in that state from 10-23 to 10-25, CNN’s “result” is exactly twice as large as the other 2 surveys done over that same 3 day time period.

According to the CNN internals, their “poll” has a margin of error of 3.5%, which means even they still have the Ohio race a statistical Tie.

But when one gets deeper into those internals, one finds that O’bamna has in fact lost ground in Ohio over the past 2 weeks. See Question #1.

And when you get the the final stage of the CNN/ORC internals, you will find that some of the Margins of Error were much, much higher than 3.5%. Some in fact were as high as 8.5%

Now, got the guts to accept the bet? And if you want to make it higher/lower, just name the amount. I will enjoy taking whatever money you will wager. I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

Name the amount.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:43 PM

I believe that placing bets with other commenter’s may be a violation of the TOS here at HA.

I would be remiss if I didn’t point out Kerry lead in Ohio on this day eight years ago but the election was four days earlier so Mitt has even more time. Money to be made on Intrade if you’re so sure, libs!

The MU poll that nailed the recall consistently showed a sizable portion of the Walker voters also supporting Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:37 PM

Really?! Well, not from what I am seeing. I notice a lot more Romney/Ryan signs going up around here. And I also noticed that a major portion of the houses that had those stupid “Recall Walker” signs in front of them, don’t have any Obama/Biden signs, while still having signs up for democrats in the more local races. You would think those “sign-happy” houses would have had them up long ago, and the election is right around the corner.

Now, got the guts to accept the bet? And if you want to make it higher/lower, just name the amount. I will enjoy taking whatever money you will wager. I am more certain than ever now with Ohio being lost and whatever momentum Mitt had long gone that this election is flat-out over.

I find the desperation of the media polls to be comical. The people on the ground in Ohio know the truth. The media’s and the trolls’ heads are going to explode on the 6th when Romney wins Ohio by at least 3.

And ARG and Purple Poll, which also came out today with survey’s showing Romney losing, just Dem junk in, desired Dem result out?

God, I love you guys.

gumbyandpokey on October 26, 2012 at 5:51 PM

This is the sign of an incredibly desperate person. Challenging people to “put their money where their mouth is”, going back and forth between polls based off of what is best for their narrative, ignoring people who have lived in Ohio and who are on the ground in Ohio, all while acting like they are the “smart one”.

They are losing big and they know it. I think it’s finally time to take everyone’s advice and just ignore. They aren’t worth it anymore. They are failing at their mission and flailing about more and more.

If this poll by CNN is an outliner then the Rassmussen poll is as well because they both have Romney losing independents. I can’t take it anymore WTF is going on in OH?????????????? Could WE actually win the popular vote and lose in the EC???

Why is everyone feeding the POLL TROLL GumbyPokeMe?? By feeding it you are emboldening it. Seriously if you google GumbyPokeMe’s name you will see it was banned from numerous conservative blogs for poll trolling/concern trolling. It’s a freaking moby obsessed with polls, that’s the only thing it EVER posts about.

early voting in OH…plenty of time to load the greyhound and get them to Milwaukee or Racine or Kenosha…while the voter ID law is currently on hold I think the new 28 day residence requirement survived but I guess if one wants to photo shop a utility bill, days don’t really matter).

what is amazing to me is that gas prices have mysteriously dropped 30 cents in the past week (still about double from when our clown in chief got into office but mind games are what they are)!!!

on the other side, we have the state’s largest employers announcing mass lay-offs (Oshkosh Truck just last night citing defense budget cuts)…more mind games…

the Walker thing might be indicative of how things will go here but I wouldn’t bet the house on it…a lot of socialists voted for him solely because they didn’t like the abuse of our recall process and once that election was over, they will go back to voting like they always did. I think Wis is going to be “LATE CALL” on election night.

“If this poll by CNN is an outliner then the Rassmussen poll is as well because they both have Romney losing independents. I can’t take it anymore WTF is going on in OH?????????????? Could WE actually win the popular vote and lose in the EC???

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 5:57 PM”

Wow, an intelligent post!

Glad someone doesn’t have the 08 style blinders on. People were denying the polls right up until the landslide began on election night.

If Romney had a chance in OH or it was a “margin of error” thing, Romney would be leading in a few polls, like Bush was in 04. But he’s now losing every single poll that’s coming out and if you think the “margin of error” would only be one way, you are in a pitiful state of denial.

It really is insanity. There are more mindless idiots out there than I thought. I still partially blame the media/press though who day after day, ignore things on Obama that they would have a meltdown about if it were a Republican.

“a lot of socialists voted for him solely because they didn’t like the abuse of our recall process and once that election was over, they will go back to voting like they always did. I think Wis is going to be “LATE CALL” on election night.

teejk on October 26, 2012 at 6:01 PM”

Don’t give inconvenient facts to the partisans here. Only every single friggin’ pollster showed that many Obama supporters also were going to vote for Walker based on principle of not liking a recall election.

And the turnout will be hundreds of thousands greater than during the recall election, which only helps Obama.

It really is insanity. There are more mindless idiots out there than I thought. I still partially blame the media/press though who day after day, ignore things on Obama that they would have a meltdown about if it were a Republican.

bucsox79 on October 26, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I blame our obviously failed educational system. Its not educational by any means when adults can;t do simple math. All they know how to teach is class warfare and communist ideals. And that is all this scum learn, sadly.

If this poll by CNN is an outliner then the Rassmussen poll is as well because they both have Romney losing independents. I can’t take it anymore WTF is going on in OH?????????????? Could WE actually win the popular vote and lose in the EC???

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Why is everyone feeding the POLL TROLL GumbyPokeMe?? By feeding it you are emboldening it. Seriously if you google GumbyPokeMe’s name you will see it was banned from numerous conservative blogs for poll trolling/concern trolling. It’s a freaking moby obsessed with polls, that’s the only thing it EVER posts about.

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 6:00 PM

I’m sorry, but you are the one feeding it. You are freaking out about Ohio. Ohio will go to Romney. Obama has no chance at Ohio. Rasmussen is using ridiculous samples as well. Ohio is not a Democrat state and the auto bailout did nothing for Ohio. I lived in Ohio for 26 of my 29 years and I still go back at least 3 times a year because I have family there as does my wife. We also have many other posters on here from Ohio and they say there is no enthusiasm for Obama in Ohio, heck even the Ohio Democrat GOTV staffer from 2008 says there isn’t any enthusiasm for Obama.

When are you Minnesotans going to get rid of your useless Dem governor and senators?

Mr. Bali Hai on October 26, 2012 at 6:01 PM

The inbred and insane governor will probably go on his own, the man only comes out of his stupor to bathe every month or so.

The senators…..hoooo boy, that’s a good question. Klobuchar puts on a friendly face and is probably a lifer. Franken is liked about as much as a dog fart in the back of the car, I think we might have a chance of ejecting his ass next time around.

If this poll by CNN is an outliner then the Rassmussen poll is as well because they both have Romney losing independents. I can’t take it anymore WTF is going on in OH?????????????? Could WE actually win the popular vote and lose in the EC???

Raquel Pinkbullet on October 26, 2012 at 5:57 PM

I just can’t see Romney winning 50%-51% of the popular vote and not winning Ohio and the election. Ohio is almost always more Republican than the national vote. But even if somehow Romney loses Ohio while winning 50% of popular vote, I think states like Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire and maybe even Nevada go Romney.

I don’t hate you, I simply want the state to be sold in its entirety to any nation that can be suckered to pony up $10 for it.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Lol! You’re funny, Bishop! But keep in mind that since Minnesota is attached to Wisconsin, you might get pulled along with it to your new destination. Though if you get moved to a communist nation, it won’t seem so far away for the Minnesotans.

The senators…..hoooo boy, that’s a good question. Klobuchar puts on a friendly face and is probably a lifer. Franken is liked about as much as a dog fart in the back of the car, I think we might have a chance of ejecting his ass next time around.

Bishop on October 26, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Klobuchar is not that safe, it seems. Not that “missing ballots” won’t help at the last minute as they with the SNL scum.

Another interesting stat: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Romney knows his Ohio base will turn out in force on Election Day. O’bamna doesn’t have that luxury.

Regarding Ohio Allah, the problem in every poll, especially CNNs is they oversample early voters. 40% of Ohio has not voted. In fact its less than half that. And they have Obama winning that demo huge.

DENVER — Election Day is still more than a week away according to the calendar, but nearly 10 percent of Colorado voters have already cast their ballots, and the Republicans are leading.

Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler’s office reports 325,810 residents have already cast ballots. With about 3.6 million people registered in Colorado, that means more than 8.9 percent of the state’s electorate has voted with 13 days to go before polls even open. The state’s mail-in ballots went out Oct. 15, and in-person early voting began Monday.

Republicans are outstripping Democrats in early voting with 126,539 ballots cast compared to 120,965 from Democrats, according to Gessler’s office.

Klobuchar is not that safe, it seems. Not that “missing ballots” won’t help at the last minute as they with the SNL scum.

riddick on October 26, 2012 at 6:15 PM

I haven’t been keeping close track of the woman, is she in trouble somehow? The closest I get to knowing is the giant “Fire Klobuchar” billboard on I94 out near my place, then again it’s the 6th District and we hate everyone on the left.

A few days ago in one of the Hot Air stories they quoted an Ohio political scientist who has been studying Ohio voting for quite a while and said that for decades, anyone who wins the popular national vote by at least 0.5% wins Ohio in a presidential election. Granted, that’s may be another “no ____ who has ____ will ___” type prediction, however, it makes sense. Furthermore, that story reviewed that Ohio is always tight in tight elections because the demos so closely mirror the national demos.

Just food for thought. That would tell me that the early voting predictions are skewing the polls and that Ohio is probably more likely Romney +5-6 in an accurate likely voter model.

The problem in Ohio is some of the heavy populated areas are majority Democrat. If they show up like in 2008, Romney won’t win Ohio. As hard as O has been campaigning there, I think he will get his turn out. Liberals are a stupid bunch and will show up to vote despite what a failure he’s been

“The problem in Ohio is some of the heavy populated areas are majority Democrat. If they show up like in 2008, Romney won’t win Ohio. As hard as O has been campaigning there, I think he will get his turn out. Liberals are a stupid bunch and will show up to vote despite what a failure he’s been

bucsox79 on October 26, 2012 at 6:29 PM”

Of course, they’ll turn out to vote.

They were enthusiastic enough to dominate Romney’s supporters in early voting.

It looks like the “enthusiasm gap” battle is won by the Obama team in Ohio.

The problem in Ohio is some of the heavy populated areas are majority Democrat. If they show up like in 2008, Romney won’t win Ohio. As hard as O has been campaigning there, I think he will get his turn out. Liberals are a stupid bunch and will show up to vote despite what a failure he’s been

bucsox79 on October 26, 2012 at 6:29 PM

He’s not getting a D+5 turnout. Even with the D+5 turnout he only won by 250,000 votes in 2008. Ohio just recently purged the rolls of 400,000 names.

Would that be like Rasmussen and Gallup, which you claimed would now show Obama leading Romney?

Would that be like Ohio, which you said yesterday, “hasn’t moved at all” since before the first debate?

Hey, Gums, how many Democrats have disappeared from Cuyahoga County since 2008? How many Independents? Have the number of Republicans increased in Obama’s goldmine in Ohio increased or decreased since 2008?

Oh, and ABC/Wash Post tracking has romney’s lead down to 1pt from the 3 pts yesterday.

gumbyandpokey

Did you happen to notice that Romney is doing better with Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals than McCain did in 2008 and Obama is doing worse with Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals than he did in 2008?

“The problem in Ohio is some of the heavy populated areas are majority Democrat. If they show up like in 2008, Romney won’t win Ohio. As hard as O has been campaigning there, I think he will get his turn out. Liberals are a stupid bunch and will show up to vote despite what a failure he’s been

bucsox79 on October 26, 2012 at 6:29 PM”

Look at Cuyahoga County, which accounted for 15.6% of the total votes cast for Obama in 2008. Cuyahoga County has 208,207 fewer total registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008. The county has lost 48,872 Democrat-registered voters and 194,199 independent-registered voters. There has been a surprising gain of 34,864 Republican voters in Cuyahoga since the 2008 election.

“Hey, Gums, how many Democrats have disappeared from Cuyahoga County since 2008? How many Independents? Have the number of Republicans increased in Obama’s goldmine in Ohio increased or decreased since 2008?

Resist We Much on October 26, 2012 at 6:36 PM”

If there was this great shift to the GOP, it would be reflected in at least some of the polls. And, yet, Obama always leads now.

I remember the same kind of justification on election day 08 in trying to buck up the troops and say McCain was doing really well.

If there was any enthusiasm for Romney in OH, he would be even with Obama in early voting, and he’s far from it. Each early vote is a sign of enthusiasm, and Romney is way behind.