Peace, Love and Thunderstanding: Let’s Make a Deal

Before Darnell Mayberry came along and stole my, ahem, thunder by writing an article saying the Thunder would not be making any major deals this season, I had already researched what kind of major deals the team might make. While Mayberry makes some pretty good points about not wanting to take time from the developing players to make a run at the playoffs prematurely, he also says: “From the start, the front office has been fixated on finding long-term playoff success, not fiddling with moves that bring five more wins.”

Who is to say fiddling for five more wins now wouldn’t be the best way to set up long-term playoff success? Think about it. The core of the team, and most of the players expected to fill out the rotation for a long time, are getting plenty of playing time during the regular season. As they have learned, usually through hard knocks, to win, the one thing that has not been simulated in playoff basketball. The run-up and, hopefully, first taste of a playoff atmosphere could pay huge dividends in the long run…especially if the tweaks made do not handcuff the team financially.

There are some deals that could be made that could help the team now and in the future. The questions then becomes, what does the team need and what can they give up?

As for what they should target, the first priority should be improved shooting. Right now, the team really struggles at opening up the floor. They have a couple of guys who can hit an open three-pointer (Jeff Green, James Harden) but when outside shooting is necessary, those guys can’t be counted on since the defense won’t sag to help in the paint.

Another way the team could improve is to acquire a dominant rebounder that would alleviate the need for the guards to crash the boards and hopefully stop turning the DeJuan Blair’s and Chuck Hayes’ of the world into superstars.

Now, as for assets the team could part with to improve these aspects of the team, a short list would include:

Etan Thomas – who possesses an expiring contract (making him attractive to other franchises looking to alleviate long term payroll) and has fallen far out of the Thunder rotation. Although, as a veteran big man, he should still have value.

Byron Mullens – Another guy with potential, his recent call up and game time could mean the team is showcasing him for potential trades as much as it could mean the team thinks he’s ready to contribute.

Matt Harpring – His expiring contract, which is paid by an insurance company, will become tradable prior to the trade deadline.

Two first round draft picks in the 2010 draft. Neither is necessarily valuable to the Thunder who are already loaded with developing talent.

Money — The Thunder are one team that is fiscally in shape to take on some extra salary or even add some cold hard cash as sweetener in a deal.

After the jump, I outline some deals that could potentially make sense.

Oklahoma City needs a shooter, Mike Miller is one of the best. Sure, he’s overpaid and past his prime, but his contract expires at the end of the season, so his rental would be just to help down the stretch run. It could be a good rental, though.

Right now, defenders have practically zero hesitance to double K.D. or Westbrook on the drive. If they kick it out to the perimeter, only Green hits a decent percentage of threes (though not enough to scare defenders into not hedging) and Sefolosha gets the Doug Gottlieb treatment. With Miller setting his feet behind the line, that would either give the team’s two best players more one-on-one opportunities, or else allow one of the best shooters in basketball free looks at the basket.

As for why Washington makes the deal, it is to save $3.7MM (including luxury tax savings), then they can sell the second round pick for cash.

The real cost of the deal:

If Miller were to come on board, minutes are going to be cut for other guards. Harden is the most likely to see a reduction in playing time.
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Chicago does this to secure Bosh’s Bird Rights and basically get him off the market. Long term, he pairs with Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, and Joakim Noah to be a force in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto does this because Bosh is walking and they get two starter caliber players who can play defense, and a couple of draft picks.

Oklahoma City does this to get a three point sniper, and all they really give up is their remaining cap space anda second round pick they likely wouldn’t use. Belinelli would likely play only in targeted spots, for instance when the Thunder face a zone defense. However, it is a club the team currently can’t pull out of the bag, so it does make them more dangerous.

The real cost:

If the Thunder were to participate in a deal that basically takes Chris Bosh off the market this Summer, that eliminates one of the few possibilities of the team making a big free agent splash. Of course, convincing Bosh to come to Oklahoma City is by no means an easy proposition with several big markets also offering him the same financial package. In the meantime, the other team trying to acquire his bird rights is the Lakers (offering Andrew Bynum as bait) and if they pull that off, they could have a core of Kobe, Pau, and Bosh for the next seven years…and they play in the same conference as the Thunder. Presti helping assure that Bosh stays in the Eastern Conference would be my preference.
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Indiana makes the deal because they are going nowhere and are hurting financially. If Krstic picks up his reasonable player option, he gives them similar play to Murphy, albeit less efficient and less consistent, but it also opens up more time to develop their young bigs Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough. They also save quite a bit for the rest of the season with Harpring’s contract.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City upgrades the offense and rebounding at center. Murphy averages six points more per game than Nenad and nearly doubles his rebounding output. While Murphy is never going to be an all defensive team player, he is certainly capable of playing defense just as well as Krstic. Murphy also shoots well from the outside to the tune of 40% from three point range. His contract would come off the books at the same time Durant’s extension would kick in, but he makes the team a stronger playoff contender over the next two seasons.

The real cost:

Murphy is expensive and having his contract on the books basically takes the Thunder out of the free agent market this Summer. The question then becomes, could they really get anyone better than Murphy?

Also, Murphy would likely command more minutes than Krstic, so Serge Ibaka and/or Nick Collison would see the floor less.
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Salary dump by Philly, shooter for hire to the Thunder. It’s basically the same scenario as the Belinelli deal except bringing in a better shooter and not getting in the middle of the Bosh drama.

The real cost:

None for the fans. The ownership group gives up a player they don’t have to pay for a player they do.
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So what do you think? Personally, I like the Murphy deal the most because it supplies a consistent guy who can play center, regularly lead the team in rebounds, and provide a three point threat. Failing that, I’d like to see Chris Bosh NOT go to the Lakers.

Yes, they would, because their salary commitments are more than $70MM. Luxury tax costs teams a lot because it not only costs them extra, but they don't get a share of the proceeds. Your strategy has the Thunder going that direction AND having to fill out the roster with castoffs who can't earn more than minimum. It worked for Boston, I guess, but hasn't worked so well for anyone else.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on Millsap, but he proved last year that he can be just as productive as Boozer, and I don't see you saying Booz isn't worth his contract.

As long as we can find a solid big man i think we will be fine. I know this comparison is wrong but look at the jordan era. The bulls never had a dominant big man. They found some amazing role players that were big and knew exaxctly how to do their job. Do you remember who their center and pf was whenever they won 72 games. Luc Longley and Dennis Rodman. They both could not shoot worth a lick but they knew their role and player them well.P.S When I say solid I mean one that can actually play the center position. Rebound, blockout, block a few shoots, and do a few low post move or two to make a shot.

Paul Millsap is not worth that contract to the Utah Jazz if Carlos Boozer is around, the same way Jeff Green won't be worth the contract he gets with Kevin Durant around.

At any rate, Utah signed two players (Boozer $11M and Okur $8.5M) to medium size contracts and extended Kirilenko to the max all within a year of one another. Then they draft Deron Williams and they have their 'core'. Kirilenko doesn't work out, and that messes up everything. That's really the reason the Jazz are in trouble. Boozer and Okur are productive players worth their contracts, and of course Deron Williams is as well.

Do you think Utah would be panicking if Kirilenko was a perennial All Star? No. OKC can spend money as long as they spend it on the right player and that player is worth the money. It's the same when considering extending our own players. I'm not saying go sign the first free agent that knocks on the door, but spend the money you have available, spend it wisely, and there won't be any problems. You just have to hope you don't get unlucky like Utah did with AK47, but that's just part of the game.

You've completely mis-read what happened in Utah. Millsap is worth the overall contract, though Portland really put the screws to them by making it worth so much this season. Miles' deal is very reasonable, as well. It was the contract the Thunder offered him that they matched, so you know it wasn't much over market value if at all. Harpring's contract was probably too high, but no higher than a mid-level exception, so before the injuries he was one of those "tradeable assets". Their rationale was probably very similar to your caveat on why the Thunder can afford another big contract.

Utah is in such bad shape because they gave Kirilenko a max contract (and he deserved it at the time), brought in Boozer and Okur with big deals (as you're advocating the Thunder to do) and developed a max-type player in Deron Williams. All of the sudden, they can only afford minimum contract rotation players, and people like you can call out mid-level and slightly higher than minimum deals as unneccesary luxuries.

Utah's actually a good example of why you shouldn't blindly extend all of your young players for no reason. Millsap isn't worth that contract, C.J. Miles (who we went after) isn't worth that contract. They went with their 'status quo' and re-signed Matt Harpring to a ridiculous four year contract when they knew they didn't really need him anymore.

One carefully considered free agency signing would fit in perfectly with what Sam Presti is doing, it's not 'overspending' unless of course OKC's goal is to spend the minimum and not to win games.

Etan can be traded to Washington because Washington did not trade him to the Thunder (Washington traded him to the T-Wolves, who then traded him to the Thunder).

It's only traded to the former team within the same season. So there could even be two reasons for Etan to be traded to Washington (I believe the Wizards to T-Wolves trade occured in last year's window). But I could be wrong.

You're not looking at the time table. If you sign a guy for $10 million a year this offseason, by the time James Harden and Eric Maynor are due for extensions that FA acquisition only has two years left on his deal and is most likely a tradable asset at the time, if necessary.

I can understand the reluctance to spend money based on worrying about Russ / KD and their extensions but looking four years down the road to James Harden's possible extension as a reason not to sign a guy to a five year deal this year is overdoing the foresight a bit.. it would be unfortunate if the team hand cuffs themselves because they are afraid they'll owe too much money to their rookie scale players. No team in the modern salary cap era has developed a successful franchise this way except the Spurs, and they got very, very, lucky with two low draft picks and have the best big man of the generation.

I looked at that link, and I still don't see how to accomodate another $10M/year player. Maybe you're assuming Jeff Green will be allowed to walk, or accept a contract for the $50/game you think he's worth, but barring that, re-signing the big 4 and adding another $10M/year guy long term is luxury tax territory.

If you ask me, I think the dream that Presti is going to sign a high dollar guy long term this Summer is ignoring his track record.

The fact that Troy Murphy does not have a long term deal is the sticking point for me. He'll be 31 or so when his current deal expires and most likely past his prime. Then what do you do? Do you re-sign him? Would he be worth another four or five year contract to this team? It would be a tough decision, as we would be extending Kevin Durant at the same time.

As for a long term deal affecting our rookie scale guys, take a gander at one of the links I posted on a previous page. OKC could easily accomodate another $10 million+ player in the fold long term..

justin :Trading for Troy Murphy compromises our ability to sign a free agent this offseason.. is he better than the free agents available?

First, he doesn’t have the “name” that the top tier have, but production-wise, he’s way up there. Second, a bird in hand is better than two in a bush. Getting a productive talent like Murphy is probably more attractive than HOPING the Thunder can win a recruiting battle against New York or New Jersey. Third, Murphy doesn’t have a long term deal remaining, but the guys you want Presti to go after would require such a commitment. That would really hamper keeping the core together.

My only concern about the Murphy trade is that it only improves the team enough maybe take a couple games in the first round of the playoffs. I don't see Murphy making such a dramatic impact that it's the last major aquisition we make. But I suppose that if there was nobody better available, it would make sense to do the deal and see how the rest of the season progresses. While the trade may take us out of the FA market, Murphy might make more appetizing trade bait later on.

Another thing that people seem to neglect, is that a decent playoff showing for the Thunder this year would certainly make playing here more appealing for those looking to win some basketball games before they retire.

justin :Trading for Troy Murphy compromises our ability to sign a free agent this offseason.. is he better than the free agents available?

First, he doesn't have the "name" that the top tier have, but production-wise, he's way up there. Second, a bird in hand is better than two in a bush. Getting a productive talent like Murphy is probably more attractive than HOPING the Thunder can win a recruiting battle against New York or New Jersey. Third, Murphy doesn't have a long term deal remaining, but the guys you want Presti to go after would require such a commitment. That would really hamper keeping the core together.

@CrowI think Mullens is worth holding onto at this point, simply because he's cheap and he has the potential to become AT LEAST a solid backup center off the bench. He's still alluring as trade bait after this year, so I can't see Presti trading him now. Unless of course he's the dealbreaker in a blockbuster trade for a big-name guy.

Here is an idea. How about we get the rights to Fran Vazquez from the Magic? According to Draftexpress, he's one of the premier defensive stoppers and shot-blockers in his league. Orlando has absolutely no need for him, and he would be on a rookie-scale contract, so he would be extremely cost-effective.

About the only business I could think of that might work would either be a car dealership or Sonic. Imagine those Sonic in-car commercials, crossed with the “Say Ahhh” music video… That’s actually a pretty good idea, lol.

Have Kevin, Jeff, Russ, Eric, James, Nick and Thabo all sitting in a minivan with Route 44's between their knees, all staring at their cell phones, just quietly Tweeting.

@f5alconI understood what you were saying. Two problems with that, however:

1) Any company with an ownership (and I believe sponsorship) stake in the Thunder can't pay players for endorsements.

2) While it's a nice idea to think that some local business would pay Westbrook $2 million (or even $1 million), I can't think of a single local business that would be willing to pay that much for an endorsement for ANY Thunder player, even KD. Mathis Brothers? Billy Sims BBQ? (I just threw up in my mouth a little.)

About the only business I could think of that might work would either be a car dealership or Sonic. Imagine those Sonic in-car commercials, crossed with the "Say Ahhh" music video... That's actually a pretty good idea, lol.

@PaulI'm with you on this, but I haven't seen Russ dunk like he did last year. A lot of the time he goes to the basket he seem like he's trying to be someone else. Don't get me wrong though, I still love Russ, but I miss his death defying dunks he had last year. He would posterize defenders all day every day, but not so much this year though.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this yet but I am outraged. If any of you have seen that dunk-in thing they are having at the rookie-soph game this year, derozan i can understand. BUT, how the heck does Eric Gordon get a go before russell westbrook or derrick rose. Maybe i've missed something here but jeeeez...

@morganA team that needs lower picks now and not later, says for example the celtics, they really dont need to improve through the draft they have a fairly set team so maybe sign a few 2nd rd projects and see if they pan out without having the guaranteed contracts 1st rd picks have, they then dont have to sign a rookie save some money and roster space.

@KingGondoWhat i meant by local endorsement i dont think is allowed, say bob howard auto agrees to pay durant 20 million with the implication that he stays here and will accept less official pay to stay under the cap, and really not durant, lets say westbrook is worth 10 million a year, we offer 8 and some 3rd party businessman offers an endorsement deal of 2, so that his total is 10 but he only counts against the cap at 8

Nix :Kobe was actually right about wanting Shaq out of LA. Shaq was starting to get lazy and he’s only declined since. Appeasing Kobe paid of in a BIG way for the Lakers.

But Shaq wanted out of LA after the 2003 season, and I think that was the main catalyst for moving him. I'm sure Kobe was happy to see him go, but from what I remember, Shaq said that he was insisting on being traded. Especially after hearing some of what Kupchak had said, about Kobe being the more valuable player. Something to that effect.

I do agree that things have worked out for the Lakers since the Shaq trade, but only after four or five years of some pretty average basketball, combined with a rabbit-out-of-the-hat trade for Pau Gasol. And also after Kobe had his little temper tantrum and demanded to be traded, before finally calming down and clamming up.

Had Kobe & Shaq learned how to coexist with one another a little more and stayed together, they could have equaled or surpassed what the Chicago Bulls accomplished in the 90's. Something I think they both came to realize a little too late.

Chandler would have definitely limited our options. Suppose there was a free agent we liked this offseason?

I'm not even sure what we're arguing about.. I think the Chandler trade was a big trade that would have definitely compromised our ability to pursue roster upgrades in the immediate future.

I'm not sure what the difference is between Sam Dalembert and Tyson Chandler, they are essentially the same player: no offense, good defense, top rebounding, blocks shots..? Their contract situations are almost exactly the same as well.

In any case, Sam Presti has demonstrated he's able to move the chips around in order to improve the roster. I'm hoping this perception of him is accurate.

Just because there is a price tag doesn't make it any less opportunistic. Nobody here has ever said there wasn't a cost involved or that it wouldn't have limited the Thunder's options down the road. What we've said is that the costs and the corresponding limitations on future acquisitions was a fair exchange for addressing a need. What made it opportunistic was that the Thunder weren't asked to give up anyone with a future in Oklahoma City.

The big difference between trading for Chandler last year and Dalembert this year is that hindsight shows us the Chandler trade would have been a mistake. Foresight lets us see that acquiring Dalembert would be a mistake. Expirings and Green for Kaman wasn't going to happen before Griffin's injury.

I know a lot can change before the draft but I like how nbadraft has ours going. Dexter Pittman from Texas with our first pick. A big guy to body up and rebound. Then a couple of swing for the fences picks with european players. We only have so much room on the roster. Pittman fits in whether next year or the year after. If the euro's develop as Ibaka has you have some value. What does everyone think?

I thought we would need a back up point. Obviously that need has been address very nicely.

His contract = the opportunity cost of acquiring possibly a better player in a big free agent market. I'm agreeing with the sentiment that Sam Presti has shown he's willing to take a risk, because the Tyson Chandler trade was a risk even if he were completely healthy.

This is where I really disagree with Darnell Mayberry's assessment. In my opinion, there's little difference between the Tyson Chandler trade and, say, if we traded expirings for Samuel Dalembert. Or if we traded expirings + Jeff Green for Chris Kaman (won't happen now with Blake Griffin's injury). He wrote an entire article stating reasons why Presti would not make a big trade, and then later in the article mentioned a big trade that he made the previous year.

People are for some reason convinced the Tyson Chandler trade was an opportunistic trade that would not have cost the team, but it was a big acquisition that likely would have prevented the team from making any other major roster adjustments until 2010-2011..

@justinReally? Geez, I thought once we made the trade we wouldn't have to pay him. So let me rephrase:

With the exception of Chandler's multi-year contract that would have limited the Thunder's cap space over the course of that contract, the only thing they had to give up to acquire him was Chris Wilcox, Joe Smith and the rights to DeVon Hardin. After the trade fell through, we swapped Weezy and Malik Rose (taking on a bit more salary in the process) and arranged a buy-out with Smith. So, had the trade not have been rescinded, we would have gotten Tyson Chandler for the price of a ham sandwich, plus his contract.

Tyson Chandler would have cost the Thunder their cap flexibility this Summer, in a huge free agent market. That trade showed that Sam Presti was willing to take a risk; he was basically betting that Tyson Chandler would work out better for OKC than any of the potential 2010 free agents or others he could acquire in a trade.

Chandler's contract would have expired next year, but it definitely wasn't a trade that had no cost.

@KingGondoI can remember myself screaming at the screen reading the news that we declined the Chandler trade. I got so hyped up about the idea we finally got the [defensive big] we need.Now I am glad I am not the GM of this organization, Presti is.

f5alcon :too bad one of the rich people non owner doesnt just offer durant or somebody a huge endorsement deal with the understanding that he stays here and signs officially for less money

I don't think KD will have any trouble getting endorsement $$$ at this point. He already has a good Nike deal, and as his status rises in the league, coupled with his clean-cut and appealing personality, I could definitely see sponsors lining up.

@Steve HGreat post, first of all. Second of all, anyone who thinks that OKC will not be extremely active before the deadline (not including the Maynor trade) needs to get their head examined. We have the most alluring collection of young talent (often buried on the bench), expiring contracts (including Harpring's insurance-paid deal) and cap space of anyone in the league.

We know for a fact that Presti is concerned about our interior defense and rebounding, and is willing to spend $10-11 million/year to get it, as evidenced by the Chandler trade. Whether someone who brings rebounding, defense, and great scoring ability like Bosh is worth a max contract in Presti's mind is an open question.

It's an interesting situation, because we don't want to handcuff ourselves with a contract like Troy Murphy's in case Bosh would consider OKC, but we also don't want to get nothing for all of the assets we've collected.

On a related note, I look at the failed Chandler trade as perhaps the most important event of this young franchise's history, outside of getting the 2nd pick in 2007. Imagine how good this squad would be defensively this year if we had a 2006-07 Tyson Chandler on our squad, but also imagine how financially limited we would have been if that doctor hadn't warned us about his health. We were *that* close to losing that bet.

@SteveHDarnell wasn't talking about opportunistic trades that come along like Chandler and Maynor. Both came out of the blue, and neither cost the Thunder (or, in Chandler's case, would have cost them) more than a ham sandwich. As I read the article, it was aimed more at whether Presti would go after someone who is more of a short-term fix, but wouldn't fit with their long-term plans, or that limits the Thunder's ability to resign their core.

@justinThank you, kind sir. I also don't put much stock in Mayberry's "no significant moves" prediction for "conservative" Presti. I think of Presti primarily as an opportunist, and this years trade deadline with so many teams looking to shed salary should be rife with opportunities. The aborted Chandler trade was a "Big" mid-season move. The injury concerns they gave for recinding it look pretty legit with the benefit of hindsight.

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