Independents' Day

Big turnout expected on Election Day

By

WilliamL. Watts

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Right now, thousands of Republican and Democratic foot soldiers are ringing phones and knocking on doors across the country as part of their final push to turn out party faithful for Tuesday's midterm elections.

But while many midterm congressional elections have been decided by which party did the better job of getting loyalists to the voting booths, the 2006 election is shaping up as a year where independents are likely to hold sway.

And that may spell bad news for Republicans fearful of a Democratic wave that could end 14 years of majority rule in the House and threaten GOP control of the Senate as well, analysts say.

"In recent presidential and congressional elections, independents have comprised roughly a quarter of the vote and divided evenly between the two parties," noted independent election analyst Rhodes Cook, editor of the Rhodes Cook Letter. "But a variety of recent polls have shown independents breaking decisively this year for the Democrats."

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released this week found 49% of independents wanted Democrats to control Congress, while 25% wanted Republicans in charge. Overall, voters preferred Democrats to be in control by 52% to 37%, a 15-point margin.

The litany of woes faced by the GOP has been well documented. To begin with, voters have historically punished the party that holds the White House in midterm election years, particularly during the sixth year of a presidency. Add in widespread dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, low presidential approval ratings, and a spate of congressional scandals, and it's no surprise Republicans are playing defense.

"The Democrats ought to take back the House and the Senate or they should hang it up as a political party," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, president of Ayres, McHenry & Associates, who emphasized that he's not convinced the Democrats will prevail.

Sentiment gaining for the Democrats

Democrats need to score a net gain of 15 seats to gain a majority in the 435-seat House. In the Senate, a net pick-up of six seats would give Democrats a 51-seat majority.

Numerous political analysts have expanded the number of vulnerable Republican-held House districts in recent weeks, and see a 15-seat Democratic gain as well within reach.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said this week that Democrats are on track for a net gain of 34 to 40 seats. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato sees Democrats coming away with a 27-seat pickup.

The Republican majority in the Senate is seen as more secure, but not impregnable.

Prognosticators have all but written off the re-election bids of Republican Sens. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine of Ohio. If they fall, and Democrats manage to keep all of their own seats, control of the Senate will likely be decided by the outcomes of closely-fought battles for GOP-held seats in Rhode Island, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri and Montana.

GOP turnout efforts deserve respect

Republicans say Democrats aren't invulnerable. Strategists say Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez could lose out to Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey. In Maryland, Democratic Rep. Ben Cardin is engaged in a close battle with Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in his bid to replace retiring Democrat Paul Sarbanes.

Ayres says Republicans may yet hold both houses due to a "fine turnout operation" that has proved its mettle in previous battles, as well as a sense that Republicans remain on the right side of key national-security issues, such as the National Security Agency's controversial telephone surveillance program.

And while most voters know little about key Democrats, such as House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, the California Democrat who would likely become speaker if Democrats take control, and Rep. Charles Rangel, who would head the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, the GOP's emphasis on the implications of Democratic control will motivate the Republican base, Ayres said.

Political pros have a lot of respect for the GOP's turnout program, which has bested Democratic efforts in recent elections.

In 2002, Republicans saw their House vote rise by more than 5 million from the 1998 midterm, noted Cook, while Democrats gained around 2 million. In 2004, Bush added more than 11 million votes to his 2000 total, while Democrat John Kerry saw his tally rise around 8 million from Al Gore's total.

Democratic strategist Peter Fenn says Republicans are certain to show up Tuesday, but he expects energized Democrats and a strong Democratic break by independents to carry the day.

"They're going to come to the polls. I think we'd be dreaming if we felt that" Republican voters would stay home, said Fenn, CEO of Fenn & King Communications.

"The counter is that the Democrats are energized, they are ready to go. The big thing here is the independents. I think they will vote more than they usually vote [in midterms]. And they're breaking 2 to 1 for the Democrats in some of these races," Fenn said.

Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate, sees a similar pattern as likely to emerge.

Gans says voters are likely to turnout in numbers unseen since 1982, when 42.1% of eligible voters went to the polls. The 2002 midterm saw 39.7% of eligible voters participate.

Republican turnout is unlikely to go down, Gans said, "but people who vote Democratic is likely to surge," setting the stage for the total Democratic vote to exceed the total Republican vote for the first time since 1990, he said.

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