Thursday, May 25, 2017

It’s
never too early to take a look at the upcoming college football season!With that in mind we are starting our early
season conference previews looking at the SEC East.

The SEC
East division has been one of the weaker Power 5 conference divisions for a
couple years; in 2016 it ranked 7th in division strength according
to SBPI, only besting the Big 10 West by 0.07 SBPI ratings points in Power 5
division strength – not good.Will this
be the year schools like Florida, Georgia & Tennessee return to national
relevance?Not likely despite what some
early season polls show.They are still
playing catch-up to Alabama, LSU and likely Auburn – three West division teams
– in the SEC.

2017

2016 OFF

2017

2016 DEF

2017

2016

SCHOOL

OFF RS

RATING

RANK

DEF RS

RATING

RANK

TOT RS

RATING

RANK

FLORIDA

9

64.7

93

5

141.5

7

14

206.2

22

GEORGIA

7

91.7

59

10

109.8

21

17

201.5

26

TENNESSEE

7

114.0

25

7

76.0

52

14

190.0

32

MISSOURI

10

116.5

20

5

67.1

69

15

183.6

42

KENTUCKY

8

91.8

58

9

56.6

86

17

148.4

72

SOUTH CAROLINA

10

61.0

99

6

67.4

68

16

128.5

90

VANDERBILT

9

59.2

101

7

64.7

72

16

124.0

94

Here is a summary in bullet form of some of the division
wide trends that stand out:

·Six of the seven teams return their starting QB
– the only team that doesn’t?Tennessee,
who loses Josh Dobbs – which is unfortunate for them as although frustrating at
times he was likely their best offensive player.

·All seven teams return more than the average
13.4 returning starters.

·The only potentially “elite” unit in the entire
division last year was the Florida defense – and that unit only returns 5
starters.

·Just one team ranked in the SBPI Top 25 –
Florida – who will likely need more in 2017 from an anemic offense to raise
their standing.Gator fans are hoping
blue chip Sophomore QB Luke Del Rio can stay on the field this year and show his
playmaking ability.

·The SEC Championship has not been won by an East
division team since 2008

Way too early projected order of finish (school, odds to
win national championship, odds to win SEC):

1.Georgia
(40/1, 7/1): the Bulldogs return the most starters in the division,
most starters in the conference and are tied for 3rd most in the
country (only behind Syracuse’s 20 and Florida Atlantic’s 19).They are led by blue chip 2nd year
QB Jacob Eason who has all the tools and will look to leverage his experience
as a freshman to put the Dawgs in the mix for an SEC Championship.They play just three conference road games
(Tennessee, Vanderbilt & Auburn) and their other crossover game is hosting
Mississippi State.In Kirby Smart’s
second season UGA is clearly the team to beat in the East.

2.Florida
(55/1, 10/1): like Georgia the Gators have just three true road games
(Kentucky, Missouri & South Carolina), getting both crossover games vs. LSU
& Texas A&M in The Swamp (not an easy duo even at home).UF will take a step back defensively after losing
so much talent although they won’t fall off a cliff as the cupboard is far from
bare; the offense on the other hand really struggled last year & is not close to being a consistent threat.If they beat UGA in Jacksonville they will have a shot; a loss there
will make it a real uphill battle with their schedule.

3.Kentucky
(500/1, 80/1): the Cats finished last year 4-4 in conference – and were
“in the mix” for a hot October second.However a closer examination of their season shows they beat the
teams closer to their talent level while losing to all the bigger name, better
players type programs.This year with 17
starters back they could be primed to challenge and play some meaningful
November football.Their road schedule
is certainly manageable facing South Carolina early in the season, Miss State
in middle and late back-to-back roadies against Vandy & UGA (they will
certainly have revenge on their minds when they visit Athens).Their home crossover is versus Ole Miss – not
easy but it’s not Alabama or LSU, or even Auburn.It would not shock me if that SEC finale in
Athens has something on the line for both teams.

4.South
Carolina (300/1, 80/1): the Cocks have not been relevant since 2013
& 2017 will not bring national relevance – but could SC be a sneaky pick to
win the division?They return 16
starters in Head Coach Will Muschamp’s 2nd season in Columbia &
2016 was not a complete disaster as they were only clearly out-classed in one
game – at Clemson – no shame there.This
year they need more offense against better teams – and with 10 starters
returning that is likely to occur.The
schedule features road games at Mizzou, TAMU, Tennessee & Georgia – which
is not brutal.Their home crossover is
against Arkansas – again kind of of manageable.Although they have a long way to go I think they can sneak up on some
people this year and finish in the top middle of the division – but making jump
to the champion is unlikely.

5.Missouri
(500/1, 160/1): the Tigers were better statistically last season than
their record indicated, which should help some in 2017.Defense was a major issue as they allowed 28+
in every SEC game besides the home win over Vanderbilt – how much will that
unit improve in 2017?My early guess is
their offense will be solid & cover-up for an average defense – but a
schedule that features four conference road games (UK, UGA, Vandy &
Arkansas) & a home crossover with Auburn will keep them towards the bottom
of the division.

6.Tennessee
(66/1, 14/1): Butch Jones is clearly on the hot seat as the Vols want
to get back into the national title conversation – and they haven’t really been
in their own division’s race under his leadership come mid November, losing at
least three conference games in each of his four seasons, melting down to a 4-4
mark in 2016.This year not only must
they overcome the loss of their QB (which as a reminder is the only QB not
returning in this division) they face a tough schedule in conference with four
road games (Florida, Alabama, Kentucky & Mizzou) along with a late season
crossover hosting LSU.All these factors
make it too tough for the Volunteers to contend in 2017.

7.Vanderbilt
(600/1, 160/1): the Commodores finished a game ahead of Missouri to
avoid the basement last year, but they finished worst in the division according
to SBPI and are likely headed there this season.Vandy faces a very tough schedule this year
with road contests at Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee along with
a home crossover game vs. Alabama – brutal.I see the ‘Dores as the clear bottom dwellers this year in the
conference.

To summarize, as I sit in my office in late May, I see the
SEC East as still one of the worst divisions in the Power 5 conferences. The division, at best, probably has the 4th
best team in the conference making it once again unlikely they break the EIGHT
game losing streak in the SEC Championship Game – although in a one game
“winner take all” scenario nothing can be removed as a possibility.I see three tiers:

Contenders:
Georgia & Florida

Middle of Pack:
Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri & Tennessee

Bottom:
Vanderbilt

Georgia or Florida is likely to win the division but will
not be of national relevance; any of the four middle pack teams, who are all
very close to each other in my mind at this point in time, could challenge the
contenders as neither UGA nor UF is a juggernaut but it’s likely they all
finish between 3rd and 6th; Vanderbilt is very likely to
finish last.

Friday, May 19, 2017

Here is Part
I of a multiple entry blog looking at various metrics from last year & how
they can assist with developing initial thoughts and projections for the 2017
season.

Here is a
matrix that shows 2016 record, 2016 final SBPI rating & ranking along with
OFF/DEF returning starters for 2017 (OFF numbers highlighted green represents
QB returning) along with turnover margin (TOM) in total.If you want to see offense & defense raw
unit rankings please reference entry from April 11th using toolbar
on right side of the page. These are the
first set of variables we will use to look towards the 2017 season.

RECORD

SOS ADJ #'s

2017 RS

WINS

LOSS

Team

RATING

RANK

OFF

DEF

TOT

TOM

14

1

Alabama

307.4

1

6

5

11

10

11

2

Ohio State

296.3

2

8

7

15

15

14

1

Clemson

296.1

3

5

7

12

(1)

12

2

Washington

275.1

4

7

6

13

18

10

3

Florida State

266.8

5

7

9

16

3

10

3

Michigan

261.2

6

4

1

5

7

8

4

LSU

255.6

7

6

5

11

0

11

3

Wisconsin

254.0

8

8

7

15

12

10

4

Virginia Tech

244.8

9

5

7

12

(1)

10

4

Colorado

241.7

10

9

3

12

6

10

3

USC

241.4

11

5

7

12

0

9

4

Louisville

237.9

12

5

7

12

(7)

8

5

Auburn

230.1

13

8

7

15

3

9

4

Miami (Florida)

219.1

14

7

8

15

9

7

6

North Carolina State

216.2

15

9

8

17

2

11

2

Oklahoma

215.5

16

9

7

16

0

8

5

Pittsburgh

212.7

17

6

4

10

1

10

3

Appalachian State

211.9

18

7

6

13

8

11

3

Penn State

211.4

19

9

7

16

1

10

4

Temple

209.6

20

6

4

10

6

13

1

Western Michigan

207.0

21

5

8

13

18

9

4

Florida

206.2

22

9

5

14

2

11

3

San Diego State

203.8

23

5

6

11

14

10

3

West Virginia

203.3

24

5

3

8

4

8

5

North Carolina

201.7

25

5

7

12

(2)

8

5

Georgia

201.5

26

7

10

17

8

9

4

Houston

200.9

27

8

7

15

(7)

9

4

Utah

197.9

28

5

6

11

6

11

3

Western Kentucky

195.0

29

4

6

10

2

10

3

Stanford

194.2

30

8

8

16

2

9

4

Nebraska

190.1

31

4

6

10

5

9

4

Tennessee

190.0

32

7

7

14

(2)

7

6

Baylor

189.4

33

7

7

14

(5)

8

5

Washington State

189.4

34

7

9

16

6

10

3

Troy

188.4

35

8

7

15

10

9

4

BYU

187.5

36

6

6

12

12

10

3

Tulsa

187.0

37

7

6

13

0

9

4

Kansas State

186.4

38

8

6

14

13

7

6

Arkansas

186.3

39

7

6

13

(4)

10

3

Oklahoma State

185.1

40

7

5

12

11

8

5

Texas A&M

184.1

41

5

7

12

3

4

8

Missouri

183.6

42

10

5

15

(3)

9

4

Toledo

179.3

43

5

7

12

(4)

10

3

Boise State

177.1

44

5

4

9

(9)

8

5

Iowa

176.8

45

7

8

15

6

4

8

Notre Dame

175.9

46

8

7

15

(4)

10

3

Air Force

175.4

47

6

1

7

6

11

2

South Florida

174.3

48

7

9

16

9

7

6

Colorado State

173.8

49

6

9

15

(1)

8

5

Army

172.9

50

9

7

16

(3)

6

7

Indiana

171.6

51

6

9

15

(6)

9

4

Minnesota

171.3

52

8

6

14

8

9

4

Georgia Tech

171.1

53

8

8

16

4

7

6

Northwestern

170.7

54

8

8

16

9

6

7

TCU

167.8

55

10

7

17

(4)

4

8

UCLA

167.1

56

9

6

15

(2)

5

7

Texas

166.8

57

7

10

17

(3)

7

6

Southern Mississippi

166.1

58

6

6

12

(17)

3

9

Michigan State

163.5

59

4

5

9

(5)

5

7

Mississippi

162.4

60

5

6

11

(3)

8

5

Memphis

161.4

61

9

6

15

8

7

6

Boston College

159.7

62

8

7

15

7

8

6

Wyoming

159.5

63

6

8

14

3

10

3

Old Dominion

159.4

64

8

6

14

13

8

5

Arkansas State

158.0

65

5

5

10

5

4

8

Oregon

156.7

66

8

9

17

(3)

4

8

Duke

155.9

67

7

7

14

(4)

6

7

Miami (Ohio)

155.2

68

8

8

16

1

9

5

Louisiana Tech

152.8

69

5

6

11

1

6

7

Mississippi State

152.0

70

7

6

13

7

8

6

Ohio

148.6

71

7

6

13

1

7

6

Kentucky

148.4

72

8

9

17

(7)

5

7

California

146.1

73

6

8

14

3

4

8

Tulane

143.9

74

8

8

16

9

7

6

Wake Forest

143.9

75

9

6

15

8

6

7

UCF

143.4

76

9

4

13

1

8

5

Middle Tennessee

142.2

77

6

6

12

(2)

5

7

Texas Tech

140.9

78

8

6

14

(4)

5

7

Georgia Southern

139.4

79

5

5

10

1

6

7

UTSA

139.3

80

7

7

14

3

5

7

Northern Illinois

138.7

81

5

7

12

(1)

5

7

SMU

138.7

82

9

5

14

2

9

4

New Mexico

138.4

83

7

3

10

(1)

4

8

Oregon State

137.8

84

7

8

15

1

3

9

Iowa State

136.8

85

6

6

12

(3)

7

6

Eastern Michigan

134.3

86

8

6

14

1

6

7

Maryland

134.0

87

7

7

14

(7)

9

5

Navy

133.4

88

5

8

13

2

3

9

East Carolina

132.5

89

5

6

11

(16)

6

7

South Carolina

128.5

90

10

6

16

7

4

8

Syracuse

128.0

91

9

11

20

(1)

6

7

Louisiana-Lafayette

127.1

92

6

7

13

1

6

7

South Alabama

124.4

93

4

6

10

(2)

6

7

Vanderbilt

124.0

94

9

7

16

4

3

9

Utah State

123.3

95

5

4

9

(5)

5

7

Nevada

123.1

96

5

9

14

4

4

8

Ball State

120.7

97

8

4

12

(10)

4

8

UNLV

120.4

98

9

4

13

2

9

4

Idaho

120.1

99

5

5

10

11

6

7

Central Michigan

119.7

100

8

6

14

(6)

3

9

Illinois

119.1

101

5

6

11

(2)

4

8

San Jose State

117.9

102

7

8

15

(1)

3

9

Georgia State

117.0

103

8

6

14

(5)

4

8

Cincinnati

112.1

104

5

5

10

1

5

7

Arizona State

111.2

105

7

8

15

(4)

3

9

Kent State

109.7

106

7

6

13

11

4

8

UTEP

102.2

107

5

6

11

(5)

3

9

Arizona

100.0

108

7

7

14

(7)

7

7

Hawai'i

99.5

109

8

6

14

(8)

2

10

Virginia

98.9

110

6

8

14

(9)

4

8

Charlotte

98.5

111

6

6

12

8

3

9

Purdue

98.2

112

5

8

13

(17)

3

9

Marshall

98.0

113

8

7

15

4

3

9

New Mexico State

96.5

114

6

9

15

1

5

8

North Texas

94.4

115

6

5

11

1

2

10

Kansas

94.1

116

8

4

12

(14)

5

7

Akron

92.9

117

9

6

15

(8)

3

9

Rice

90.0

118

8

8

16

(7)

2

10

Rutgers

89.5

119

5

8

13

(5)

2

10

Massachusetts

87.6

120

6

8

14

(10)

4

8

Louisiana-Monroe

86.8

121

7

9

16

(11)

4

8

Florida International

86.2

122

7

8

15

(9)

4

8

Bowling Green

85.6

123

6

7

13

(16)

2

10

Buffalo

85.4

124

6

9

15

(6)

3

9

Connecticut

84.9

125

7

7

14

(8)

3

9

Florida Atlantic

78.9

126

9

9

18

(5)

1

11

Fresno State

72.2

127

10

6

16

(9)

2

10

Texas State

38.6

128

7

7

14

(14)

Here is a small grid showing average returning starters by
group heading into 2016 season along with heading into the 2017 season:

OFF

DEF

TOT

2017

6.84

6.59

13.43

2017 QB's

88

2016

6.85

6.53

13.38

2016 QB's

87

So we can see not much change in any of these figures at all
YOY, which, for the most part, is expected.

How can we use each of these metrics to get a head start on
our 2017 opinions for each team?By
examining the relationships between (keep in mind this write-up looks at each
of these metrics in a silo):

·2016
record & 2016 SBPI rating: the rating column (for example Alabama at
307.4) is a very strong predictor of team record, with the two showing a 2016 correlation
of 83% across the entire 128 teams competing in FBS (in prior seasons that
correlation is typically closer to 90%). Using just this relationship the teams we want
to target to be bullish on are those who have a high SBPI rating and single
digit wins (such as LSU, Louisville, Auburn, Miami, NC State, Pittsburgh,
Florida & North Carolina amongst Top 25 teams) – the reason is those teams
played good football last year but likely caught a few tough breaks late in
games, or played a very tough schedule (either opponents which is represented
naturally in the SBPI rating or their home vs. away splits) that led to fewer
wins than expected.Teams we want to be
bearish on are those who fall further down the SBPI ratings but won more games
than expected (such as Hawaii, Idaho, Navy, New Mexico, Middle Tennessee,
Louisiana Tech & Old Dominion) – these teams successful record vs. true
statistical performance was driven by the opposite effect mentioned above;
probably many late game good breaks & easier schedule as measured by either
opponents or H/A split.

·2016
SBPI rating & 2017 RS: the higher the number of returning starters
the more likely a team is, at a minimum, to replicate last year’s performance
or increase their SBPI rating which in turn would lead to a greater chance of
winning more games.If we focus on the
average RS figure above of 13.43 teams with more returning players than that
number should be as successful as they were last year, especially teams that
return their QB.However keep in mind
there are always exclusions to any broad application of any statistics – such
as bigger name teams that consistently recruit well (Alabama, Ohio State,
Clemson and Florida State to name a few) will have a much easier time turning
over new starters vs. middle to low pack Power 5 conference teams.In the Group of 5 returning starters is
typically a very solid place to start when projecting future success.

·2016
record vs. 2016 TOM: as you can see from the figures above teams that
perform well in TOM are typically very successful with their record while teams
who struggle there do not usually post solid records.In addition, although there are outliers to
any high level application of statistical theories, teams will tend to
aggregate towards the mean the more time that passes.Examining this relationship on last year’s
data shows the 4 CFB Playoff teams ranked #1-4 in my SBPI; however, we can see
Clemson was a (1) in TOM while the other three teams were double digit
favorable in this metric.If we look
closer at the worst teams from last year we can also see this metric as very
predictive as the bottom 13 teams were all negative in TOM with an AVERAGE of
(9.4) – just shy of (1) per game.Those
teams not only played poorly but also took terrible care of the football, or
did not force enough turnovers, which is obviously the recipe for bad records.There are many subset variables you can use
to project turnovers committed and forced which will naturally drive the TOM
figure.

That was a high level look at a few metrics I will use to
set initial baselines on each team heading into the 2017 season.

In the coming weeks I will be using these metrics &
posting conference breakdowns where I share my initial projections for each
team.In those entries there will be
additional details on each team such as offense & defense figures from 2016
and how returning starters could potentially impact those.Stay tuned – it should be great information –
and who doesn’t enjoy reading college football analysis on the summer!

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.