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Battleground Poll: Race still tight

The head-to-head numbers mostly held steady through the past two weeks. | Reuters

Romney narrowed his gap on the question of who fights harder for the middle class. During the media firestorm over his “47 percent” comments, the poll showed him trailing by 19 points on the question. Now he’s down only 13 points — 54 to 41 percent. This double-digit deficit remains a problem, though, because three in four likely voters consider themselves part of the middle class.

Lake said Obama has persuaded most middle-class voters that he’s fighting for them, but he hasn’t convinced them that he has a plan to help them if he gets reelected.

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“Now we’ve got to prove we can do something about their lives,” she said.

Of the 11 issues on which the candidates were pitted against one another, Romney’s clearest edge came on the federal budget and spending: Fifty-six percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the issue — 47 percent strongly so. By a 7-point margin, voters believe Romney is best equipped to tackle the debt.

Obama holds a 3-point edge on which candidate has a better tax plan. This is traditionally a Republican issue, and the lead is notable for someone who makes raising taxes on the wealthy a centerpiece of his campaign.

One of six debate segments will focus on health care. Obama leads Romney by 8 points on who is best for health care generally and Medicare specifically.

Another segment is about governing. Obama leads Romney on the questions of who shares your values (48 percent to 45 percent) and who is the stronger leader (50 percent to 43 percent). But Romney has an advantage (47 percent to 45 percent) on who can “get things done.”

Goeas said to watch these three indicators as a gauge for the gut reaction of voters to the debate.

Obama is trailing slightly with independents. In 2008, the Democrat carried them by 7 percent — the same margin as his overall victory. But right now, he’s softer on the individual issues than is reflected in the head-to-head matchup, which shows him behind by 4 points with independents.

Romney has a 14-point edge on jobs and an 11-point edge on the economy among independent voters. More than 60 percent disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy and spending. Romney even has a slight advantage on taxes. He ties the president on who is the stronger leader and leads by 9 points on who has the best ability to get things done.

Among all likely voters, 56 percent say the country is on the wrong track. This number has fallen because 72 percent of Democrats and 73 percent of African-Americans now say the country is on the right track. Yet two in three independents still think the country’s on the wrong track.

“He has to be careful of accepting and affirming the praise of the Democrats who think the country’s going in the right direction and assuring people he can change the direction with four more years,” said Goeas. “He doesn’t want to do anything to dampen enthusiasm he’s getting from Democrats, but he can’t afford to be removed completely because the overwhelming majority thinks we’re on the wrong track.”

The POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters from Sept. 24 to Sept. 27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

The key issue is that the federal government's fiscal gap now exceeds $200 trillion. This is the comprehensive long-term difference between government revenue and government spending based on the most realistic estimates available. Reelecting President Obama will likely make this problem much worse. Replacing him with Gov. Romney will likely make it less dangerous for the economy's health. Voters will now choose between someone whose name is synonymous with fiscal profligacy and recklessness, and a successful businessman who was once the capable fiscal steward of a middle-d state government.

Romney is struggling because of his attempts to pander to the extremists in the Republican party. While Romney talks about reducing the deficits, he knows that revenue-raising measures are necessary. Because tax cuts for the wealthy have been put off the table, Romney will have to raise taxes on the middle class to pay for tax cuts for his wealthy friends and benefactors.

look over your shoulder Obama...your lies,promises and failed policies are coming home to rest!You have divided our nation and caused great harm to our people,here and abroad and the American people are waking up to your nonsense!

If there are about an equal number of registered Republicans and Democrats, and if Romney is leading among independents, why do all the polls reported in the partisan press show Obama up by five to ten points?

I smell a rat.

But as we get closer to the end of the month, I suspect the pollsters will have to start abandoning their attempts to rig the polls to make Obama look good and will have to start reporting more accurately to try to save what little is left of their miserable reputations.

I don't believe any poll that comes out before the last week of this month.

The article states that President Obama has a "3 point lead on taxes". Five paragraphs later it says, "Mr. Romney has an edge on taxes." Well, which is it? Why should anyone pay any attention to this kind of thoughtless jibberish?

Polls are imperfect. Its fair for Republicans to challenge them but when all the polls show you down, you have a problem.

By most election predictors, Romney should be clearly winning right now. Part of his problem is he is a weak candidate. The other issue is demographics are changing (see VA, NV, NM, etc.).

I would look at Rasmussen as he was accurate in 2008 and tends to lean right. If Romney is behind with this pollster, he is really behind.

The turnout will not the same as 2008 but also not the same as 2010. Obama will not do as nearly as well as 2008, nor will the Tea Party favored candidates see much of a gain. We will have a likely have a split government with close margins between parties with a couple more independent minded politicians (think King in Maine, Manchin in WV, or a Brown/McMahon type republican in MA or CT).

Currently Rasmussen has had Romney even or one point below all month. Obama is leading in all the major swing states (FL, WI, OH, VA). Unless this changes, I don't see any path to victory for Romney.

My guess is the election will be within 2% nationally but the electoral college will not be so close.

My guess is the election will be within 2% nationally but the electoral college will not be so close.

The end of the Romney candidacy will be determined by Rove & Co. shifting money from the Presidential election to the down ballot races. You have to give Rove his due, just as you have to admire Axelrod's work. IMO, the election should be handed to the Democrats- House, Senate and Presidency. It would be a rough four years, but it would delineate the failings of American socialism to the point that there would be no Independents in future elections.

What the esteemed liberals fail to address in all their angry commentary are Obama's awful polling numbers. When was the last time an incumbent won reelection when polling below 50%? I will help you out....never. They just cannot grasp that the divisiveness and anger being peddled by the liberal base does not resonate with voters. People are tired of angry, they're tired of division, and they are tired of being labeled and put into boxes by the left. Obama's policies have not worked, the economy is no better than it was when he took office, the debt has skyrocketed, unemployment is still over 8%, and from all indicators, General Motors is getting ready to ask for another bail out, though they still have not repaid the original loan.

In case you missed it, this article shows that Romney is closing in on Obama (I argue he is actually ahead), and that this comes from increasing support among Independents (where Romney has a lead of 4%).

Now, Romney has the Republican vote. And the Independent vote. So the polls showing that Obama is leading have concluded that there are more Dems than Republicans by a large margin (larger than 5%). That is NOT consistent with what we see happening is voter registration across the nation (especially in swing states where new registrants are more Republican).

Then the Dems say, "The polls aren't biased for Obama! That is just conservative spin!".

WE CAN COUNT ON MITT. The Etch-A-Sketch Man TEMPORARILY really cares about us!

And we can count on the incumbent? What exactly has he accomplished in his first term that warrants another four years? Is the economy any better off than it was when he took over? Is unemployment below 8%? Has GM repaid their bailout? How about foreign policy....how are things in the middle east right now? I am sure Obama cheerleaders can find a way to blame the Obama administration's assertions that the murder of the U.S. ambassabor in Libya was a result of some cut rate anti-Islam film when it is now clear that they knew it was a terrorist attack on Bush somehow. Waiting to see the hoops libs jump through to make that argument.

@TxStrat: "What the esteemed liberals fail to address in all their angry commentary are Obama's awful polling numbers. When was the last time an incumbent won reelection when polling below 50%? " WHAT? Projection much. The only angry commentary here is from demoralized GOP busy denying poll numbers that clearly show their candidate on a slippery slope to political oblivion. And, in case you haven't noticed, the President's numbers are now above 50%. So much for that.

First thing Romney should do at the debate is ask Obama if he can look into the camera and promise the American people he will NEVER release the Blind Sheik. Guaranteed Obama will either try to weasel out or just plain lie.