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Six Things To Know About Hurricane Nate

By Linda Lam

October 06, 2017

TWC Canada

The busy 2017 Atlantic hurricane season continues as concerns over Hurricane Nate grow.

Here are six things to know about Nate as it impacts Central America and tracks toward the Gulf of Mexico.

1. Nate's Intensity and Track Remain Uncertain

Hurricane Nate continues to organize and its ability to continue this trend late this weekend will impact how strong it will become. Nate is expected to arrive on the northern Gulf Coast somewhere east of New Orleans late Saturday or early Sunday. Exactly where that landfall point is remains to be seen.

The computer models are in better agreement on an overall track to the north-northwest, as Nate is expected to be generally steered by a subtropical ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. The strength and exact position of the ridge over Florida will play an important role in Nate's exact track.

There is also some uncertainty in its forward speed through this weekend, which affects potential landfall timing along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Nate is currently moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. How fast it can organize there will play a big part on how strong it can get.

A combination of warm sea-surface temperatures and light wind shear should allow for some intensification Saturday.

(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of Nate. Note that impacts with any tropical cyclone may spread beyond its forecast path.)

At a Glance

Nate is expected to quickly move toward the Gulf Coast on Saturday.

Heavy rain is likely in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and the southern U.S.

The last time three hurricanes made landfall in the contiguous U.S. in one year was 2008.

Nate may make landfall on the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Matthew.

2. Potential U.S. Impacts

Hurricane conditions are likely late Saturday into early Sunday from coastal southeastern Lousiana eastward to southern Alabama and a few miles inland, with winds greater than 40 mph occurring well into southern Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida.

Tropical storm and hurricane warnings have already been issued for parts of the Gulf Coast and residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should continue to monitor Nate's progress.

It is likely that heavy rainfall will spread across portions of the South. A widespread area of at least 3 inches of rain is expected with the heaviest rain expected from southeast Louisiana to southern Alabama and inland as far as the central Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, which could lead to flash flooding even well inland.

Some storm surge flooding is also likely from southeastern Lousiana eastward to Mobile Bay where winds are expected to be onshore as Nate makes landfall.

Those across the South should be sure to check back to weather.com for forecast updates as Nate approaches the U.S.

3. Power Outages Are Expected Across the South

In addition to water impacts, wind will likely bring down power lines and trees along its path, especially close to the Gulf of Mexico.

Winds greater than 40 mph are possible from the point of landfall northward into Mississippi, Alabama and north Georgia, with wind gusts to 60 mph. This is strong enough to do damage to trees and homes.

Power outages are possible well into the central Appalachians, possibly into the northern Appalachians.

4. It Has Been Nine Years Since Three Hurricanes Made Landfall in the Contiguous U.S. in One Year

Nate is projected to make landfall along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast late this weekend as a hurricane.

If this occurs, Nate will join Harvey and Irma, which also made landfall as hurricanes this year. Fortunately, Nate is not expected to be a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, like Harvey and Irma were at the time of landfall.

Tracks of the three hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. in 2008. The color of the track denotes the strength of the system at that time.

In 2008, Hurricane Dolly made landfall in far southern Texas on South Padre Island on July 23 as a Category 1 hurricane, causing significant wind and flood damage.

Then on Sept. 1, Hurricane Gustav made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane. More than $4 billion in damages occurred in the U.S. along with more than 10 deaths.

Hurricane Ike was a long-lived Cabo Verde hurricane that made landfall along the upper Texas coast as a strong Category 2 hurricane on Sept. 13. Extensive damage occurred, including significant storm surge and wave damage in upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana. As a direct result of Ike, 21 people died in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.

5. An October Hurricane Landfall Along the Northern Gulf Coast Is Rare

Hurricane season officially lasts through Nov. 30, but tropical activity decreases moving through October and November.

Where tropical cyclones form also changes in October, compared to the peak of the season. Instead of looking toward the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean, tropical storms and hurricanes more commonly develop in the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and far western Atlantic Ocean in October.

Typical formation zones and tracks for tropical storms and hurricanes in October.

Given the change in where tropical systems form, where landfall typically happen also shifts. One of the reasons for this is cold fronts begin to push farther south as fall progresses, providing some protection if timed correctly, to areas along the western and northern Gulf Coast.

Since 1950, only four tropical systems have made landfall along the Texas or Louisiana coast in October.

Meanwhile, Florida is a more common location for October landfalls.

6. Nate's Landfall May Coincide With the One-Year Anniversary of Hurricane Matthew's Landfall

The current forecast calls for Nate to make landfall along the Gulf Coast either on Saturday, Oct. 7 or on Sunday, Oct. 8.

If this takes place on Oct. 8, this would be on the one-year anniversary of Hurricane Matthew's landfall in South Carolina.

Satellite, radar, and storm information on Hurricane Matthew's landfall in South Carolina on October 8, 2016

Matthew was a destructive storm as it tracked through the Caribbean as a major hurricane. The path of Matthew took its center just off the coasts of Florida and Georgia.

Impacts from Matthew were felt in the U.S. from Florida to North Carolina, including storm surge damage, strong winds and heavy rain. The heavy rain brought widespread flash flooding and record river flooding to eastern North Carolina.

Nate will not affect the same areas as Matthew and is not expected to be as powerful, but is a good reminder that hurricane season is not over yet.

A shrimp boat is sunk at its mooring along the Pascagoula River in Moss Point, Miss., on Sunday, Oct. 8, 2017, after Hurricane Nate made landfall on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. David Nelson said the boat belongs to his father and will be repaired. (AP Photo/Jeff Amy)

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