Alameda Point studies threat of rising sea level

Published 7:01 pm, Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Alameda Point will be underwater by the end of the century, according to a report released by the city.

Alameda Point will be underwater by the end of the century, according to a report released by the city.

Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle

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Spectacular views of San Francisco are seen from Alameda Point on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif. The former Naval Base is predicted to be underwater due to sea level rise by 2050, according to the city's environmental impact report released this week. less

Spectacular views of San Francisco are seen from Alameda Point on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif. The former Naval Base is predicted to be underwater due to sea level rise by 2050, according to the ... more

Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle

Image 3 of 4

Much of the existing buildings and structures still sit idle on Alameda Point, on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif., since the Naval base was shut down. The former Naval Base is predicted to be underwater due to sea level rise by 2050, according to the city's environmental impact report released this week. less

Much of the existing buildings and structures still sit idle on Alameda Point, on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif., since the Naval base was shut down. The former Naval Base is predicted to be ... more

Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle

Image 4 of 4

The Oakland estuary waterway where it meets Alameda Point on the north eastern edge on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif. The former Naval Base is predicted to be underwater due to sea level rise by 2050, according to the city's environmental impact report released this week. less

The Oakland estuary waterway where it meets Alameda Point on the north eastern edge on Saturday Sept. 21, 2013, in Alameda, Calif. The former Naval Base is predicted to be underwater due to sea level rise by ... more

Photo: Michael Macor, The Chronicle

Alameda Point studies threat of rising sea level

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Plan on moving to Alameda Point someday? You might want to pack a swimsuit and snorkel.

Much of the former Naval Air Station - site of a projected 1,425-home development - will be underwater by the end of the century due to sea level rise brought on by climate change, according to the city's draft environmental impact report on the project released this month.

"For a lot of people, this is a very scary subject. We in the Bay Area have to come to grips with this not just at Alameda Point, but throughout the region," said Randy Rentschler, spokesman for the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which is among the agencies studying the impacts of sea level rise in the Bay Area.

Rentschler, along with the city's chief officer for Alameda Point, Jennifer Ott, will address the issue at a forum Thursday in Alameda. The city is also hosting a public hearing Wednesday at City Hall. The deadline for public comments on the report is Oct. 21.

Alameda Point, which at 870 acres makes up about a third of the island, is mostly low-lying landfill. It's not only vulnerable to sea level rise, but to high waves, which are expected to become increasingly common as storms amp up intensity, according to the report.

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None of these options are cheap. The city estimates that flood protection will cost $109 million, or about 20 percent of the overall infrastructure price-tag for bringing the old Navy base up to modern standards.

The 1,000-page report presents a few other potential roadblocks for the development, including traffic gridlock in Oakland and the fate of the "Old Whites" - historic officers' homes that are a favorite among preservationists.

According to the report, the bulk of the traffic impacts will be in downtown Oakland and Chinatown, where the Webster tube deposits travelers heading off the island. Some of the impacts are expected to be so severe that the report deems them unfixable.

But sea level rise could be the most extreme problem, not just in Alameda but in low-lying areas throughout the region. Interstate 880, Oakland International Airport and the Port of Oakland's rail hub are all at roughly the same elevation as Alameda Point - that is, a few feet.

'Gorilla in the room'

This has some Alameda residents worried about the cost and feasibility of the city's plan for the point.

"Quite honestly, it's the gorilla in the room," said John Knox White, who writes a blog on city affairs. "There's never really been a discussion as to what this means. We need to start talking about it now."

Alameda Point has been mostly vacant since the Navy left in 1997. The city, which now controls the property, rents some of the old airplane hangars but most of the point sits empty.

Several master developers have attempted to build mixes of housing, retail, office and industrial developments at the site, but all the plans have fallen through, due in part to the real estate crash and the city's restrictions on multiunit housing.

The city envisions a mix of homes, 291 acres of open space and 5.5 million square feet of offices and commercial space, hopefully generating 8,900 jobs.

What's unknown is how high the ocean will rise, and whether dikes and berms will be enough to keep Alameda Point and other low-lying areas dry.

Since the mid-1800s, sea level has risen 9 inches along the California coast, and the rate at which the ocean is rising is increasing, Rentschler said.

Discuss issue now

"Is a berm enough? That's the central question," he said. "In some cases a berm is a very successful strategy. In some cases, it's not."