WESTERVILLE, Ohio — "Oh, I think Romney's going to win Ohio. I mean, I'm hearing from the people who are, you know, Republicans, but in the absentees and the early votes, he did not get the numbers that he got four years ago." He would be Barack Obama. And the gentleman across from me talking here late this morning isn't just another guy with an opinion, he is John Kasich, the governor of Ohio. "He's down 30,000 votes from his early voting numbers in Cuyahoga County [Cleveland], and we're also hearing reports of heavy turnout in Republican strongholds, so those things combined make me think he's gonna win."

If being the governor of the most important state in the country today has him doing anything different than usual, it doesn't much show in the guy. And if modern politics is market-driven and focus-grouped and burnished until there's nothing human left, the word hasn't yet gotten to Kasich, who earlier today rolled in to the Westerville Grill, his local joint, and ordered a plate of eggs and bacon. As he settled in the corner, he looked like such a regular guy that it was pretty easy to understand the succession of shy and earnest regular guys who would work up their gumption and make their way to his table in the corner to shake his hand. Kasich is kind in return, turns his attention from his eggs for a moment to say hi to his neighbors. He's wearing a dark fleece and soft shoes, and there isn't a barber in the entire state of Ohio who has known what to do with his hair, which is cowlicked and makes him look boyish, though it's flecked with gray. He decided to stay in Westerville, a nice town just north of Columbus, after his election as governor in 2010 rather than move into the governor's mansion because, he says, "I like my house."

And judging strictly by the poll of yard signs in town — a pretty fierce battle, pitting neighbor against neighbor — Romney has the edge here in town. And so, Kasich says, will he statewide as well.

So Romney will win Ohio. Will we know tonight?

"Yeah, I think so. I mean, I don't know how many of those provisional ballots there are..."

They say as many as a couple hundred thousand.

"Yeah, you know..." he says, trailing off, "I don't know, I'm not a predictor, I just listen to the people who know this stuff, and they're all very, very upbeat. The people I talk to are not just spin guys, they're looking at analysis, and telling me what they really think.

Okay, but humor me here. What if you're wrong? What has your relationship been with the White House?

"Pretty good. Even in this campaign, I've never taken any personal shots at him. I mean, he's the President. You know,he came and campaigned a lot against me [in 2010], which you expect. After that, I don't think things got off to a very good start. we had a meeting at Blair House, and he was talking about the '97 budget deal, and I'm going, Wait a minute, I helped write the '97 deal, and so he and I had an exchange in front of a lot of people. A philosophical discussion about how that deal got done, you might say. But then we played golf and yukked it up, got along fine, and I went to the basketball game in Dayton with him, and we've had our storms here and I've talked to him about what we need, so I have a relationship with him. It's how I've operated my whole career — I don't demonize people that I don't agree with.

"Obama is sort of an aloof guy, and sometimes you've got to learn to put your arm around people. And look, when I say this, it doesn't mean I have it all figured out, or that I do it all right, but I think I do a pretty good job of getting along with people I disagree with — unless they're just nihilists or want to hurt me, then I don't have time for them — but I think he could have done a better job of spending time with people on a more personal basis. But you know what? I'm not in Washington, and things have changed..."

Yes, they have. Mitch McConnell did say that his number one priority is to make Obama a one-term president...

"He shouldn't have said that. No more than Harry Reid should say that he's not going to work with Mitt Romney. But my view is that you just need experience to do these big jobs, and you need the ability to work with people and fix things. I think Mitt Romney is a fixer. Why would you get elected president and spend your first year health care when people don't have jobs? It was a bad thing to pick. I mean, we have health care issues and problems for sure, but it was just off the target."

And then Kasich turns to you and says, "How do you think Obama will be remembered if he is a one-term president?" And then he answers his own question. "I'll tell you what I think. I think it will be seen as historic that he was elected, but that he really didn't get much done.

"But from what I hear, Romney will win Ohio by 50,000 votes. And I have to think that if he wins Ohio, he'll be the next president."

He was so confident that he isn't doing too much out of the ordinary today. A few radio interviews, drop by the office to do some governing, maybe hit the gym and then see what the returns bring.

A few blocks away, you pass a house that is the local headquarters for Obama 's Organize for America, and you stop and ask the people there about what their neighbor the governor just said about Romney winning Ohio. "First off," says a voluble woman, "we're going to win and it's not going to even be close. I have watched far too much cable news during this whole ordeal, but have relied on Nate Silver to keep me sane and calm. She pauses.