Tuesday, 1 January 2008

Chavismo /km² in Carabobo

Apologies for the bad quality of this picture. I just drew it on a run.

This shows the density of the group who voted for Chavez' reform proposal in Carabobo on the 2nd of December of 2007: the redder the region, the highest the number of Chavistas per square km. (based on CNE figures on votes for Si as shown in the table below).

There is no rocket science here. The NO won in Carabobo, as in all major metropolitan areas. We know Chavismo is still strong in the poorest areas, but it is rapidly losing ground there. We also know it is particularly strong the farther you get from main cities.

Now, the map is interesting for other reasons: here you can see very easily the main regions where the opposition needs to focus to win national elections. A more granular mapping would be even better, but I haven't found one showing parroquias. The Municipio Valencia as a whole has a lower density of Chavista voters than Los Guayos, but obviously, there are big concentrations of Chavistas in the Southern part of it, in the poorer areas, specially in Miguel Pena. There, in Miguel Pena there are over 58000 people who voted for Chavez (or at least that is what the CNE says, read further). It would be very red in the map if we had the information about what its exact borders within the Valencia municipality are.

The opposition needs to address those people, ask them what they want and also think of proposals for the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT of that population (something few people in Venezuela seem to think about).

Of course, one should not forget the less densely populated areas: conquering big amounts of territory might have an important psychological effect on everybody (this is specially the case for local elections).

Municipio

Sí voters for partA

% SI for part A

hard core Chavistas per square km (as SI voters)

Bejuma

7528

44,19%

16.05

Carlos Arvelo

27025

62,11%

32.37

Diego Ibarra

21786

66,2%

275.77

Guacara

29837

48,23%

180.83

Juan José Mora

29837

68,82%

37.17

Libertador

28120

57,17%

30.18

Los Guayos

26548

56,22%

363.67

Miranda

5585

56,68%

34.69

Montalban

3739

44,54%

34.94

Naguanagua

20898

35,94%

111.16

Puerto Cabello

33997

53,07%

78.33

San Diego

9137

26,46%

86.2

San Joaquín

10695

54,63%

84.21

Valencia

125798,of which58718are inMiguel Pena

40,78%(53,95%in Miguel Pena)

201.92

In Carlos Arvelos you have a little bit more SI voters than in Los Guayos, but in Los Guayos you have them all in a much more reduced place.

You can find a post of Caracas Chronicles here that talks also about the regional differences and what the opposition needs to address. Katy mentioned there the opposition parties need to go to the Llanos and do more work there.

I think what Katy said about minding the countryside is very important. Still, one needs to take into account the limited resources the opposition has and then think of ways to optimize one's efforts.

Just one interesting detail about the referendum in the Manuel Pena area: out of 62voting centres, there is NO INFORMATION for 10 of them...and that in an urban area, in Venezuela's third largest city. How sloppy can the CNE be?

Voting Centre s SI-Block A votes for the Miguel Pena region within the Valencia area)

2 comments:

Actually what the opposition needs to do is to look at what's happening in San Diego (the strongest anti-Chavez area in Carabobo if not the country) and see what's working there and try to address the differences with other municipios.Then they can sell it to people and improve people lives.Then Chavez will never win.

I think both things need to be taken into account: what is Scarano doing in San Diego and what are the special needs of regions such as Los Guayos.

Scarano is a good manager, but you have to take into account Los Guayos and similar places have other challenges. The average income in Sann Diego is certainly lower than that of Northern Valencia, it is rather average stuff, but still, they are better off than the people in Los Guayos.

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Minister of "Justice" on socialism, his tie and his shoesHere an English article explaining the whole thing for those who do not speak Spanish. I wonder if Italian communist ministers also wear that kind of clothes.