Bubble Tracker: 10 teams sweating the most on Selection Sunday

Mar. 16, 2014
|

Jarnell Stokes #5, Jordan McRae #52, Armani Moore #4, and Jeronne Maymon #34 of the Tennessee Volunteers after a technical foul called against Maymon during the semifinals of the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament against the Florida Gators at Georgia Dome on March 15, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. / Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images

by Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY Sports

by Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY Sports

You know that feeling when you get the letter from the college you're really wanting to get into? Odds are you stared at the envelope for a couple seconds before opening it. Your heart was likely beating super fast. You're either in or you're out.

Selection Sunday is much like an acceptance letter. College basketball teams have submitted their credentials throughout the regular season and put the finishing touches on their résumés in conference tournaments.

Now it's up to a committee to determine their fate.

On Sunday, March Madness officially begins (if it hadn't already), as teams that were on the bubble find out if they'll be dancing in the NCAA tournament or settling for the consolation prize of the NIT.

Hours away from the NCAA tournament selection show, here's a look at the 10 teams that'll be sweating the most when Greg Gumbel starts naming teams.

Tennessee: The Volunteers did what they needed to do in the SEC tournament to stay comfortable on Selection Sunday: Not suffer any inexcusable losses and not get blown out. They played Florida well, actually, and it'd be hard to see the committee exclude a squad that pushed the likely No. 1 overall seed.

Missouri: The Tigers have one of the best backcourts in the country in Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson. Unfortunately, we won't be seeing that duo in the NCAA tournament. A blowout loss to Tennessee to end the regular season meshed with a blowout loss to Florida to bow out of the SEC tournament ended any hope for a team that lost to Georgia and Alabama in a pivotal late February stretch. Two top-50 wins are just not enough.

North Carolina State: The Wolfpack are playing their best basketball and look the part of an NCAA tournament team. They'll have to bring that swagger to the NIT, though. It's too little, too late for N.C. State, a team that's lost 13 games and just doesn't have the credentials deserving of a tournament squad. Every year we get fooled by a team we want to see play in the Big Dance. But just because this team would win games in the NCAAs doesn't mean it deserves to be there.

Florida State: The Seminoles have only lost to one bad team (Miami) but haven't beaten any top-tier teams, either. FSU's best wins came against two A-10 squads (Virginia Commonwealth and Massachussets) and Pittsburgh. That's not enough to get in most likely.

Minnesota: Despite playing in the Big Ten, the Gophers just have too much going against them: An 8-10 league record, an ugly loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, losses to Northwestern and Purdue. All that negates a strength of schedule that ranks sixth.

Iowa: Yes, believe it or not the Hawkeyes could be in trouble based on a terrible late-season collapse - losing six of their last seven. Iowa should be safe, but fellow bubble team Nebraska might be safer considering the Cornhuskers actually have more marquee wins on their résumé.

SMU: Larry Brown's squad should be comfortable, but the committee could snub the Mustangs because of their late-season collapse and losses to the league's basement clubs - South Florida and Temple namely.

California: With a mediocre record, losses to Southern California and UC-Santa Barbara just can't be forgiven despite a string of key Pac-12 victories, including a notable win against Arizona.

Brigham Young: The Cougars would be a surefire bid if the committee didn't consider injuries. But it does, and the fact that top player Kyle Collinsworth tore his ACL cannot be overlooked.

Green Bay: The selection committee hits us with a surprise team each year, evidenced by Middle Tennessee's inclusion last year. The Phoenix, a team that beat Virginia in non-conference action, could be that team this year. If not, turn to Conference USA where Southern Mississippi also has worthy credentials. Toledo in the Mid-American also has potential.

***

Bubble Tracker conference-by-conference breakdowns of the strength and weaknesses of borderline teams via Bracketologist Shelby Mast. Data as of March 16.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He's predicted for The Indianapolis Star and collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.