Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

Abstract

This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.

Item Type:

MPRA Paper

Original Title:

Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

Feddersen, Arne, Brad Humphreys, and Brian Soebbing. "Contest Incentives in European Football." University Of Alberta, Department of Economics Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 2012-13 (July 2012).