NBA Draft: Seventh picks offer unpredictable gauge for success

Since the NBA began using a draft lottery in 1985, teams have selected both stars and duds with the seventh pick. (Staff and Wire/Composite photo)

The clock will soon begin ticking, and the Lakers will have to figure out quickly the best way to use their seventh overall draft pick.

Do the Lakers opt for a point guard, such as Oklahoma State’s Marcus Smart, since general manager Mitch Kupchak feels that most guards develop quicker than forwards? Or do the Lakers choose a forward, such as Kentucky’s Julius Randle, Arizona’s Aaron Gordon or Indiana’s Noah Vonleh, in the hopes of bolstering both their defense and paint presence?

Or do the Lakers take the risk and select Kansas center Joel Embiid, whose stock could drop because of last week’s surgery to treat a stress fracture in his right foot?

As the Lakers approach the NBA Draft on Thursday, they have likely already mapped out such variables. But the Lakers will also have to answer one, more difficult, question: how much impact can a seventh overall draft selection actually make on their team?

“You do have to work with a younger player,” Kupchak said. “Those are the guys that get drafted the highest. Whether they are a freshman or sophomore, it may take a year or two.”

Unsettling, perhaps, for a team intent on quickly rebuilding after finishing with the team’s worst record in L.A. franchise history this past season. Various NBA analysts and the draft history itself suggest the seventh pick itself yields even more unpredictability.

And there have been role players (Luc Longley, Harrison Barnes) and forgettable ones (Roy Tarpley, Chris Mihm).

In which category will the next seventh overall draft pick fit?

“I see any player in this class making a difference,” said Ryan Blake, the NBA Director of Scouting Operations. “But the hardest thing to judge is heart. None of these players are also going to be the first option. They’re going to have to earn their minutes, gain some confidence and integrate themselves on the team.”

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And as the stories surrounding the various seventh draft picks show, their NBA journeys have taken various twists and turns.

Success stories

The challenges Mullin encountered from college to the NBA went beyond the taxing 82-game schedule. They involved more than just moving from St. John’s, N.Y., to Oakland. Performing before smaller crowds than when he played at Madison Square Garden marked one of Mullin’s many adjustments.

The seventh pick of the 1985 NBA draft also experienced roadblocks that could have derailed his career. Mullin reported to training camp his rookie season late because of a contract dispute. That issue, coupled with his rookie status, collided with a group of veterans that Mullin described as having a “me-first attitude.”

In 1987, former Warriors coach Don Nelson also confronted Mullin about his persistent drinking and convinced him to enter rehab.

“No one knew it would work the way it did. Deep down, they were preparing for me not to make it,” said Mullin, who currently serves as an advisor for the Sacramento Kings. “I wasn’t quite sure I would, either.”

After remaining sober and continuously working on his shooting, Mullin averaged a career-high 26.5 points in the 1988-89 season, 25.1 the following season and 25.7 the year after that. That improvement coincided with the Warriors drafting Mitch Richmond and Tim Hardaway to form “Run TMC,” a trio that executed Golden State’s fast-break offense to perfection. That earned Mullin an appearance on the 1992 Dream Team, five NBA All-Star games and an eventual induction into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.

“You have to be able to deal with success with humility and deal with failure as a learning experience,” Mullin said. “A lot of these guys who are top picks are coming from successful college careers. When things don’t go their way right away, it’s very important not to feel like this is what your career is always going to be.”

Others succeeded through different struggles.

The Cleveland Cavaliers traded Johnson in the middle of his rookie season in 1988 to the Phoenix Suns. But in a 12-year career he finished 18th all-time in assists (6,711). Stoudemire won the 1996 Rookie of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors because of his lightning-quick speed that earned him the nickname “Mighty Mouse.” But he had mixed success both with Portland (fought for playing time) and Memphis (battled injuries) before retiring in 2008.

After showing promise with the Wizards, Hamilton was traded to the Detroit Pistons in 2002 and helped them to an NBA championship over the Lakers in the 2004 Finals. Detroit and Hamilton parted ways in 2011 after he reportedly had verbal altercation with coach John Kuester, while Chicago waived Hamilton last year after he struggled to stay healthy through two seasons.

Curry has set Golden State’s franchise record in three-pointers made (905) in only five seasons. He has fulfilled that job description while leading the Warriors to the playoffs for two consecutive seasons, partly fueled by being passed over for the six other players who went before him in the draft.

“I knew certain teams thought I was lacking something,” Curry said. “So I just want to be a complete a player as much as possible. It wasn’t so much to go at the GMs that passed up on me. But I wanted them to know I could have as big of an impact on the game as those guys they selected in front of me.”

Finding their way

Others failed to carve their own paths for reasons both within and out of their control.

After being drafted in 1986 by the Dallas Mavericks, Tarpley received an NBA-imposed ban five years later for violating the league’s drug policy three times. After rejoining Dallas in 1994, Tarpley soon received a permanent ban for using alcohol and violating the terms of a court-imposed personal aftercare program.

The late Eddie Griffin lasted only five years amid drinking problems.

In his rookie year in 1993, Kings guard Bobbly Hurley recalled feeling elated when he filmed a sneaker commercial in Los Angeles and imagined a prolific career. But he suffered life-threatening injuries after being struck by a car while driving later that year. Though he returned to play for five seasons, those injuries negatively affected his game.

“I feel fortunate to be here, but I’ve carried baggage with me on that for a while,” said Hurley, who currently coaches at the University of Buffalo. “It’s hard for me to let it go just because I drove myself pretty hard as a player. I always had high expectations of what I did and accomplished. But I didn’t accomplish what I set out to do professionally.”

Among the NBA’s retired seventh overall picks since the lottery’s inception in 1985, they lasted an average of 10 seasons. Yet, among the former and current seventh overall picks, only three players won an NBA championship (Hamilton, Luc Longley, Corey Brewer) and only five players played on an NBA All-Star team (Mullin, Johnson, Hamilton, Deng, Curry).

History suggests these seventh picks thrive when they are not expected to carry the franchise.

Nene became an energetic force on the Carmelo Anthony-led Denver Nuggets (2002-12) and John Wall-led Washington Wizards (2012-14) en route to eight playoff appearances in his 13-year career.

Before Chicago traded him to Cleveland last season for monetary reasons, Deng became the fourth-leading scorer in Bulls history (10,286 points) through 10 seasons that partly entailed teaming up with talent such as Ben Gordon, Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose.

In the past two seasons, Barnes became a key Warriors reserve, while playing along with the so-called Splash brothers — Curry and Klay Thompson.

“That made a difference a lot,” Barnes said. “Had they drafted me to be the franchise player, maybe that would have hurt my development. Maybe it would have been too much, too early. There’s a number of situations where it could have been different. But coming in, I knew my job was to come in there and contribute on the team. I also played with great players and learned how to be productive.”

Impact

With future Hall of Famers Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash still under contract next season, will the Lakers’ seventh pick have the same luxury to lean on their talent and experience? Or will injuries persist for Bryant and Nash, putting a heavy burden on an unseasoned rookie to carry a once-storied franchise?

Even more uncertain: can that rookie adapt to either circumstance?

Based on the history of the NBA’s seventh overall picks, no amount of skill tests, scouting and interviews can yield a true answer.

“Everyone gets to write their story,” Mullin said. “Things will change. Teammates will change. Coaches will change. Even with all the variables around him, the guy who stays consistent with his work ethic and love for the game will rise to the top.”