About Me

Monday, 21 January 2013

It Might Never Have Happened Like This

On Sunday
in Germany
the Lower Saxony Regional elections resulted in a complicated situation. The ruling Christian Democratic Union lost
votes, a good many to the more right wing Free Democrats.

However,
the Social Democrats did not do as well as hoped but with the support of the
Green party have a very narrow majority.
In short Angela Merkel’s lot have taken some flak but none of them hit
their targets.

As this
electoral outing was hoped to give some positive indications of what might
happen come the German general election in September, it is now all still to
play for with a wide range of uncertainty as to who will govern in October.

All I can
predict with certainty is that little notice will be taken of the implications
for Europe or the UK
in our media until after the event unless there is something spectacular that
happens.

The risk is
that the complications arising and the moves Germany
makes to deal with unfolding situations in Europe,
at home may induce something spectacular.
There are also “black swan” events to worry about.

If Russia gets much more snow and things there,
including effects on their oil and gas supplies, go badly this could have
unforeseen effects across Europe as well. Europe as we
have known it may suddenly change involuntarily.

In Project
Syndicate, Professor Nouriel Roubini, who famously or infamously, called the
2008 Crash, Dr. Doom in person, thinks that 2013 is going to be sticky all
round. There are serious risks to
stability but no obvious contender for a trigger event.

It could
have been so different. In 1837 when
Queen Victoria
ascended the throne the opportunity was not taken by Parliament then to abandon
male primogeniture in the succession. It
might have made a difference.

Her first
child was a daughter, also Victoria, who married a Prussian Prince Frederick,
becoming Crown Princess and Empress when he succeeded in 1888. Sadly, he lasted only 99 days, already
suffering from cancer. Their first
child, Wilhelm succeeded him as Kaiser.

When Queen Victoria died in January
1901, her daughter, Victoria, was still alive, but died in August of the same
year. If she had succeeded as the first
child, she would have been Queen-Empress of the British
Empire for a few months.

Then in
1901, Kaiser Wilhelm II would also have become King William V of the British
Empire and Emperor of India. Not only would Britain
and Hannover become united again, but there could
have been a British-German political and perhaps trading union.

What kind
of world might we have had now? Think of
a world where neither the USA
nor Russia
might achieve the predominance they did later; and there would have been no
need for a European Union.

Interesting, see Wikipedia on the Fashoda Incident 1898, we were still at odds with France at that stage. The Germans were the good guys until the Kaiser went off the rails. War might have occurred for some reason because both the Russians and French were unpredictable and agggressive but with outcomes unknown. One issue is that King Edward VII was very pro French, so no Edward no secret treaty with France and Russia.

Interesting thought experiment although I suspect the royals were already growing weary of 'intrigue' and were themselves somewhat eager to let the (mock) 'wave of democracy' liberate them from the constant threat of regicide.

It mattered not who ruled the nation so long as THEY controlled the money!