Making some (probably wrong) predictions

Submitted by Anonymous on Fri, 01/25/2013 - 11:16pm

Is it too early to start predicting what's going to happen next football season? Of course it is. But truthfully, I would probably be just as inaccurate if you asked me a week before the action started.

The new districts that came out on Friday are great. Period. I don't know about you, but I hated the District 4-6A of old. I'm sure Englewood, Stanton, Wolfson, Lee, etc., are great places, but I was just getting tired of seeing St. Augustine and Bartram Trail steamroll them. And, I'm sure, the Bears and Yellow Jackets didn't really enjoy the bus trips.

Regardless, the quality of opponents out in Duval isn't really the main reason this change is great. Having Creekside and Nease in the same district with St. Augustine and Bartram is more than I could have asked for. The only thing better would have been to add Menendez and Ponte Vedra (together in 4-5A) instead of Matanzas.

Now, you have two solid rivalry games, Nease-St. Augustine and Bartram-Creekside, with actually playoff implications on the line. Not to mention the circus that is St. Augustine-Bartram, a matchup that has produced some of the most insane finishes imaginable.

So here's how I think it's going to go. Despite the new teams, St. Augustine will win its 10th straight crown, while Bartram remains just behind as the runner-up.

I'm not sure what Nease will look like without Ulysses Bryant. I have to say the same about Creekside without Livio Hoxha and Adam Sandin.

Still, this district over the next two years is going to be a nice change for the county. Don't forget, Matanzas earned its first win over a county team this past season.

In 4-5A, I can't really say I know what's coming. Clay, Ridgeview and Palatka are really hard teams to predict. They can go from playoff contenders to one-win squads in the course of a year.

I will say Palatka seems to be trending upwards. Clay is usually very athletic and Ridgeview has a solid foundation. So, this isn't going to be easy for Menendez or two-time defending champion Ponte Vedra.

The Sharks will have new QB and be without the services of running back Cole Mazza. Let's go ahead and say Ponte Vedra takes the crown, with Ridgeview finishing as runner-up.

That's a complete guess, so don't hold me to it.

On a final note, I applaud St. Joseph for going independent. That was really the only logical decision. Yeah, it's nice playing for a chance to go to the playoffs, but it's much better to compete on a regular basis than it is to face unrealistic odds.

There was simply no way a school the size of St. Joe could hang with Trinity Christian — a team that pushed St. Augustine. Providence has beaten county teams before, too.

Now, the Flashes will be able to return to the type of schedule that resulted in a 9-2 run a few years ago. That type of good will is worth far more than the potential of a postseason.

BONUS PREDICTION:

With the girls basketball tournaments starting next week, here's how I think it will unfold.

In District 5-5A, Bartram will beat Clay in the title game; St. Augustine will beat whatever Duval team advances in 4-6A for the crown; Nease will top Ponte Vedra in 4-5A.

Nothing crazy there, I know. St. Augustine, Bartram and Nease all have the ability to make deep postseason runs. I would be very surprised if they didn't all advance past the second round.