Previewing the Oscars

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Editor's Note: Tamara Dunn has watched all nine Oscar-nominated films and all the nominated performances. Here are her predictions in the six major categories. For the past three years, she has correctly selected five out of six races. Enter the Citizens' Voice Academy Awards contest here.

Best Picture

Likely winner: "12 Years a Slave"

Wild card: "Gravity"

This Oscars season has been a two-movie race between "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave." Both have broken ground as far as portraying narrative and taking the audience out of its comfort zone. "Gravity" is a major blockbuster with America's two leading stars - George Clooney and Sandra Bullock - and powered by Warner Bros. On the opposite end, "12 Years a Slave" is an independent collective of British and American actors illustrating a dark moment in U.S. history.

What gives "12 Years a Slave" an edge over "Gravity" is that it can be seen on any platform - at home, on a computer and in the cinema. The wizardry behind "Gravity" may get lost on voters who chose not to watch it in a darkened 3-D theater. A showdown like this was last seen in 2010 with "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker," with the indie war flick beating the intergalactic film.

Best Director

Likely winner: Alfonso Cuarón, "Gravity"

Wild card: Steve McQueen, "12 Years a Slave"

As their movies have battled out for the top prize, the Cuarón-versus-McQueen contest has been as equally competitive.

Cuarón has been on the winning side of awards season for director, but McQueen's film has been collecting the big prizes. Either way, the Academy is set to make history. If Cuarón prevails, he will be the first Mexican and second non-white director to win. If McQueen wins, he becomes the first black director to do so.

What catapults Cuarón to the top is his commitment to "Gravity," taking 4½ years to create a spectacle of special effects and human emotion. Cuarón has been a part of the studio system for nearly two decades, but he has been able to direct passion projects like this. But the Academy can still break barriers.

Cuarón and McQueen are producers of their respective films. If the trend of splitting the best picture and director continues as it did last year, Cuarón will get his Oscar for directing and McQueen will earn his for producing.

Best Actor

Likely winner: Matthew McConaughey, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Wild card: Chiwetel Ejiofor, "12 Years a Slave" or Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Wolf of Wall Street"

McConaughey's Oscar campaign started two years ago when he started losing the weight for his role as Ron Woodroof. It was a sign that the star best known for appearing shirtless in romantic comedies was ready to be an actor.

Similar to his own physical transformation, McConaughey's portrayal of an AIDS patient who takes on Big Pharm is worth the long look.

While some have criticized his campaign for not paying enough attention to the current AIDS fight, the other work he has done like "True Detective" and his small role in "The Wolf of Wall Street" has kept him on the minds of many. Ejiofor and DiCaprio have Hollywood's respect, but it's not enough to stop McConaughey.

Best Actress

Likely winner: Cate Blanchett, "Blue Jasmine"

Wild card: Amy Adams, "American Hustle"

As the saying goes, absence makes the heart grow fonder. Blanchett's six-year hiatus from the big screen ended with her stellar performance as a woman losing it all after her rich husband is jailed for illegal financial dealings.

With every awards season, there have been punches thrown. Most have been directed at "Blue Jasmine" auteur Woody Allen and past child sex abuse allegations. Blanchett has shown grace when faced with questions about the matter on the awards circuit. Adams dazzles in high '70s fashion as con artist Sydney Prosser in "American Hustle."Adams is the youngest of the five nominees and the only one without an Oscar. She could end Blanchett's winning streak and walk away with the award.

Best Supporting Actor

Likely winner: Jared Leto, "Dallas Buyers Club"

Wild card: Barkhad Abdi, "Captain Phillips"

Like Blanchett, Leto has been a stranger to films, and his role as Rayon in "Dallas Buyers Club" is a great "welcome back" part. Leto's Rayon, a transgender AIDS patient, balances out McConaughey's Woodroof, and Leto's transformation is more profound.

Most of all, Leto has polished up his acceptance speeches just as McConaughey has. The only major prize Leto did not win was the British Academy of Film and Television Arts award; he wasn't even nominated. Abdi won instead.

A first-time nominee in his first film role, Abdi stands a slim chance of winning. However, if Leto does not claim victory, Abdi has proven to be the second strongest.

Best Supporting Actress

Likely winner: Lupita Nyong'o, "12 Years a Slave"

Wild card: Jennifer Lawrence, "American Hustle"

Lawrence and Nyong'o have been engaged in the tightest race in this category since 2001, when Marcia Gay Harden of "Pollock" beat out Kate Hudson of "Almost Famous." Both actresses are even as far as trophies this season.

What pushes Nyong'o over the top is the physical work she does as Patsey in "12 Years a Slave." She goes from torture and despair in one scene to childlike wonder in the next. It's Nyong'o's first major role, and she has the soul of an experienced performer. Traditionally, the supporting actress Oscar has gone to two types of actresses - a veteran who has never won an Academy Award (normally a large oversight) or a young starlet with promise.

Lawrence was able to play a character that was 10 years older than her and give needed spunk to "American Hustle," but it doesn't hold the weight that Nyong'o's role does. Plus, Lawrence won the best actress Oscar last year for "Silver Linings Playbook."

It may be too soon to give her more Oscar hardware.

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