Theresa May is likely to win the UK’s snap election on 8 June. A big parliamentary majority and not having to face voters again until 2022 could give her more flexibility in negotiating and implementing Brexit. But contrary to what she claims, that wouldn’t strengthen her negotiating position vis-a-vis the EU; if anything, it would weaken it.

With politics so unpredictable these days, there is also a risk that she will do less well than expected.

And May is taking a much bigger gamble with the survival of the UK. She can scarcely deny Scots a vote on independence before knowing the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, since she is now asking Britons to vote in similar circumstances. With many Scots leery of being dragged into a hard Brexit by a Conservative UK government in thrall to English nationalism, the (emotional) case for Scottish independence could be compelling, as I argue in my latest column for Project Syndicate.