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Here’s the deal: I’ll buy into the IU-has-turned-the-corner story line if the Hoosiers knock off Michigan State in East Lansing Saturday.

I’ll buy in if the Hoosiers prove they’ve completely bought in. Because, despite the numbers, despite the fact the Hoosiers are 2-21 in their last 23 Big Ten road games, this is eminently winnable.

Michigan State has one of the stoutest defenses in the country — No. 1 in total defense, rushing defense and passing efficiency defense. They also can’t score points. And they shouldn’t be able to score points and keep up with the Hoosiers, who need to play their best game of the Kevin Wilson era.

I’ll buy in if the Hoosiers show they can deal with success and back up a strong performance against Penn State with a program-altering victory at Michigan State.

And if they don’t, if they get smacked around the way they have so often the past 15-plus years on the road, well . . . same old IU.

I know the numbers.

Again, 2-21 in their last 23 Big Ten road games.

Michigan State leads the nation in total defense, rush defense and pass efficiency defense.

But Indiana can win, just the way it should have won last year’s Michigan State game in Bloomington, when the Hoosiers blew leads of 17-0 and 27-17 before losing, 31-27.

It’s a matter of whether they’ve grown up.

“As soon as we (have success), we get patted on the back,” coach Kevin Wilson said Monday. “We don’t prepare the right way, and we just don’t come back. If you’re a good team, what we did Saturday wasn’t to me unusual. What to me is unusual is can we do it again, because we haven’t shown that. So I would be interested as a coach and as leaders and as players, and it’s going to be a tough challenge. . . . At the end of the day, I’d like to see if our kids can handle the success of a winning team. We’re going to win some, but we’ve got to learn how to handle it if we’re going to be a winning team.”

So far this season, IU has been on a roller coaster.

Brilliant against Indiana State.

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Laughable against Navy.

Solid against Bowling Green.

Horrendous against Missouri.

Terrific against Penn State.

And . . .

Sensing a trend?

This has got to be a trend breaker. This has got to be the week the Hoosiers show they’ve learned how to deal with a little bit of success, something they haven’t done at all this season.

It’s time. Isn’t it?

We’re not talking about winning at Wisconsin. Or Ohio State. Or even Michigan, where the Wolverines have not been the Wolverines this year. We’re talking about Michigan State, an eternally good program but one that hasn’t impressed anybody this season.

“I think our team has had a challenge of dealing with success,” wide receiver Kofi Hughes said. “Like last year, when we’re thinking, ‘Oh, we have the possibility of a Rose Bowl,’ and you saw what happened with Wisconsin; we completely laid an egg. Then we beat Bowling Green, everybody is giving us a pat on the back and then we came out and didn’t play nearly as well as we needed to play against Missouri. So you see this going up-and-down kind of thing with us.

“We’ve got to forget about a win the way we forget about a loss. We’ve got to mature that way.”

The atmosphere on campus has changed in recent days. Hughes, for one, said he’s had students and professors telling him “great game,” the same students and professors who didn’t previously know he was a member of the IU football team. The community hasn’t bought in completely just yet — they’ve been fooled too many times before — but there’s a growing hope that this team can earn a bowl berth.

“This past week was a huge step for our team,” Hughes said. “We proved to ourselves that we are good. We know we put in the work and we’ve given ourselves a chance to show we’re a great team. This past weekend was first physical sign of ‘Hey, we can really do something here’ and think that hopefully it will make us hungrier and not just excited we beat Penn State. Because it’s about much more than that.”

There haven’t been a lot of big games in IU’s semi-recent football history, but this is one of the rare big ones. Michigan State is beatable, even at home. The victory over Penn State was nice, empowering, even if the Nittany Lions aren’t what they once were. A victory at Michigan State will make Hoosier Nation, and maybe the nation at large, look up and take stock.

Is this program ready to take the next big step, or is it the same old IU?