Trump’s Failing Hard-line Approach

And what is striking about Trump’s approach to governing is how he does not seem to consider what anyone else wants or values. Trump is convinced that the other members of the P5+1 prefer ending the Iran deal when they in fact do not. He is convinced that Republican members of Congress prefer any other outcome to the Obamacare status quo (to be fair to Trump, GOP members of Congress did leave that impression from 2010 to 2016). And on North Korea, Trump is convinced that Chinese preferences are similar to U.S. preferences, which is not true at all.

To put it another way, Trump approaches every situation as a typical hard-liner usually does: he makes unreasonable demands, he projects his own preferences onto others, and he thinks that resistance can be overcome through bluster and intimidation. This approach means that Trump never needs to know anything about the issues or other actors involved (and he usually doesn’t know anything about them), because the only thing that matters to him is that everyone else yield to him. Failure to do so prompts another round of whining about how “disappointed” he is, and that is followed by various threats. Of course, this approach never works because other actors have their own interests and preferences, and they are not going to be swayed into giving them up just because Trump yells at them some more.

Intimidation tactics frequently produce undesirable results. That is certainly the case when the other actors realize that they are in a stronger position than Trump is. For all of Trump’s talk about deal-making, he seems not to grasp that other actors often need incentives for cooperation, and he also doesn’t seem to know how leverage works. He berates China for insufficient cooperation on North Korea when they are the ones in the position to demand something in exchange for providing that cooperation. Trump’s handling of foreign policy in particular shows that he thinks he can just browbeat adversaries and allies alike into submission. That may work when it is used against his unfortunate staffers and appointees, but for everyone else it predictably fails.

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12 Responses to Trump’s Failing Hard-line Approach

And this is “news” how? Almost from the moment he appeared on the political stage, besides rabble-rousing appeals to his base, he has demonstrated an almost complete lack of knowledge and understanding of history, economics, politics, diplomacy, and any other skill necessary in a successful president. Why anyone expected anything other than the train wreck we are witnessing would be the real news.

President Trump’s problem is that he misunderstands his background. He was born into wealth. And his skill set is in real estate, as it was handed to him by his father.

Mr. Trump thinks he is a skilled negotiator because he was able to convince politicians to change zoning designations for buildings in his favor. What he failed to recognize is that those changes were also in the interests of the governments to get more property tax dollars as well as campaign contributions. He also believed he was a good negotiator with banks, when the bankers would always get there fees and interest, or the buildings in the event of default.

None of these things take great skill. Just connections and money, both provided by his father.

What is terrifying about Mr. Trump is that he accepts as fact the propaganda put out by Fox News which everyone knows isn’t true and is just intended to create loyalty to conservative causes by low information voters. The “I hate Obamacare but love the ACA” crowd.

Someone needs to take him aside and tell him the truth. About himself and how the country really operates.

JOn S–the problem is that Trump wouldn’t listen. He will sacrifice everything for the sake of bolstering his ego, including the United States. He doesn’t have the gumption to admit that he doesn’t know everything.

“President Trump’s problem is that he misunderstands his background. He was born into wealth. And his skill set is in real estate, as it was handed to him by his father.”

This. Next time we elect a rich man as president, we need to go with one who actually build the company from the ground up, not someone who inherited wealth.

His foreign policy is particularly terrible though. Any sane diplomat would know to ignore the rantings of any tinpot dictator, and Trump has ratcheted up Kim Jong-un’s cache in his domestic propaganda, which the Kims have always thrived on. They need to be in conflict with global leaders in order to look important and rally the troops, and Trump is a bonanza. Kim can now prove to his people he’s being bullied by the US and they need to take steps to protect themselves against US aggression by getting the bomb. Trump needs to stop giving him oxygen.

Furthermore, I’m still not sure Trump is paying attention to anything China is actually doing domestically either, which can have a lot to do with their unwillingness to be effective in the NK crisis. Has he said anything about Yemen & Afghanistan? What are we doing about them that we have time and resources to be messing around in East Asia right now with Syria and Iraq still a mess?

Jon S gives us an interesting insight to ponder, one that certainly stirs thought.

I would embellish this further: in finite business deals, such as real estate, each new ambit claim or offer negates all that came before. Diplomacy [and even domestic policy] does not work that way. History and context are just as significant as the latest dip or twirl in the dance. Diplomacy is a process, not a finite ‘deal’ that is concluded and then we move on to the next one. This includes diplomacy with the House and Senate, not just just foreign nations.

And in both domestic policy and foreign diplomacy, a nation cannot hit ‘re-set’ by declaring bankruptcy and starting again with smoke & mirrors.

“I would embellish this further: in finite business deals, such as real estate, each new ambit claim or offer negates all that came before”

The “official” name for this concept is iterative game. In business, especially in real estate, you can always find another buyer, partner, investor, even if your previous partner, buyer, investor leaves in disgust, as long as the new set of partners, buyers, investors think you can make money for them. In politics and diplomacy, you must engage with the same set of actors over and over again. And if you insulted someone two years ago, he might have the power to foil you last week. What’s worse, one you gain reputation as being a weak player, all other players adjust accordingly.

@Mia
“Trump has ratcheted up Kim Jong-un’s cache in his domestic propaganda, which the Kims have always thrived on. They need to be in conflict with global leaders in order to look important and rally the troops, and Trump is a bonanza.”

And as well, Kim Jun-un is a bonanza for Trump and for the same reasons.

Trump is no intellect but lets not forget our two adversaries , Russia and China didn’t get to where they are over night. The last 8 years they had free rein, right or wrong based on the last administrations foreign policy. Realism teaches major powers are not big on the interest and well being of others. Major powers have major militaries, as large a GDP as they can muster, and as large population. Enter the US , Russia, and China.Russia behind Putin has the backing of his people to put back the old Soviet Union. China want’s us the hell out of Asia. Will we fight them over those goals?

And why wouldn’t he think you can just browbeat everyone else into submission. After all, that has been neo-con inspired foreign policy for a few decades now. Trump conned the voters into think that he would change all that, but all the people in his foreign policy staff are neocons and nothing has changed.

From a foreign policy perspective, we are living out the fifth term of the George W. Bush administration.