Big 10Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.

Iowa (4-4) - at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (the next two weeks look huge for the Hawkeyes)

Purdue (3-5) - Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 5-7 (it is now or never for the disappointing Boilermakers)

Minnesota (5-3) - Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 6-6 (not a great road team, the Gophers will have to win at Illinois or get to 20 and beat Michigan State at home)

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. I have also added a guide to the best/most intriguing games of the week.

Big 10What I am watching:
Ohio State at Penn State - Which probation team emerges still unblemished in the Big 10?
Michigan at Nebraska - Who takes control of the Legends Division at mid-season?
Michigan State at Wisconsin - Can the Badgers continue their momentum and keep Sparty reeling?
Iowa at Northwestern - Will the Wildcats pull one out against an upper-echelon team or will the Hawkeyes emerge as a chief challenger in the Legends?

Upset alert: Michigan over Nebraska. The Wolverines are underdogs going to Lincoln but thrashed Nebraska 45-17 in Ann Arbor a year ago. The Cornhusker run defense will be tested by Denard Robinson and the suddenly stingy Michigan defense will try to shutdown a Burkhead-less attack. Last week: Northwestern over Nebraska (should have been none).

Player on the spot: Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska. Martinez needs to outplay Robinson and solve the tough Michigan defense. Martinez was held to 171 total yards in the meeting last year while completing only 9 of 23 passes. Last week: Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan - 14-29, 163 yards, 20 carries, 96 yards, 0 TD, 1 Int in a 12-10 victory over Michigan State.

ACCWhat I am watching:
NC State at North Carolina - Can the Wolfpack continue to win close games and stay in the race for the Atlantic Division Title?
Duke at Florida State - Will surprising Duke be able to hang with the Seminoles at all?Upset alert: NC State over North Carolina. Last week: Wake Forest over Virginia (should have been Wake Forest over Virginia or Duke over North Carolina)

SECWhat I am watching:
Florida vs Georgia - Does anybody even realize the Dawgs take over first in the SEC East with a win?
Mississippi State at Alabama - Will the Bulldogs suffer the fate of all Tide opponents?

Upset alert: Ole Miss over Arkansas. Last week: Texas A&M over LSU and South Carolina over Florida (should have been None).

Player on the spot: Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia Last week: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M - 29-56, 276 yards, 0 TD, 3 Int, 25 yards rushing in a 24-19 loss to LSU.Big 12What I am watching:
TCU at Oklahoma State - Is this the game that can get the Horned Frogs bowl-eligible?
Texas Tech at Kansas State - Are the Red Raiders a giant-killer or pretender?
Notre Dame at Oklahoma - Have the Sooners turned the corner or will the luck of the Irish continue?Upset alert: Baylor over Iowa State. Last week: Kansas State over West Virginia (should have been Kansas State over West Virginia).

PAC-12What I am watching:
UCLA at Arizona State - Who emerges as USC's prime challenger in the PAC-12 South?
USC at Arizona - Can the Wildcats offense keep up with the Trojans in the battle of the Matts?
Oregon State at Washington - Will the Beavers dream season be derailed when nobody is expecting it?

Upset alert: Arizona over USC. Last week: Cal over Stanford(should have been none).

Big EastWhat I am watching:
Louisville 34, Cincinnati 31, OT. The Cardinals survive and point toward the Rutgers game.
Kent State at Rutgers - Can the MAC slay the Big East again in 2012?Upset alert: Temple over Pittsburgh. Last week: Toledo over Cincinnati (should have been Toledo over Cincinnati).

Player in the spotlight: Jawan Jamison, RB, Rutgers.Last week: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida - 21-38, 189 yards, 3 TD, 1 Int in a 27-25 loss to Louisville.Non-BCS ConferencesWhat I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again), Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech(again) and Middle Tennessee State have done it the first five weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 17? This week there are two chances...Kent State at Rutgers and Massachusetts at Vanderbilt. Ok, there is really just one.

Upset alert: North Texas over Middle Tennessee. Last week: Marshall over Southern Mississippi (should have been Marshall over Southern Mississippi).

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 7-4. Season record: 43-29-2. Lock of the Week: 6-2.Lock of the Week: Ball State -3.5 at Army. The Cardinals are playing like MAC contenders and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games. Army stays in games because of their unique style, but also struggles to come from behind. This is a better Ball State team than the one that beat Army 48-21 a year ago...Ball State 48, Army 21.

Closer Than You Think Game of the Week: Mississippi State +24 at Alabama. The Bulldogs come in with an equivalent unblemished record, but nobody thinks they are going to hang with the Crimson Tide. Not so fast...Mississippi State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games on grass and Alabama is just 2-6 in their last 8 on grass. The grass game also favors the under, which makes a blowout win harder. The Bulldogs lead the FBS in turnover margin and Alabama is due for one or two that keep the game close for a while...Alabama 27, Mississippi State 14.

Old Standby Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe -22 vs South Alabama. ULM got back on my winning side last week, bringing them to 6-1 ATS for me this year. This week, they face off against an over-matched South Alabama team, but one that plays decent defense that makes 22 points a little scary. The Jaguars have covered their last 5 road trips, including two against NC State and one against Mississippi State. ULM needs to give them a welcome to the Sun Belt game this week...Louisiana-Monroe 43, South Alabama 10.I Get How Many Points? Game of the Week: Colorado +45.5 at Oregon. This game will not be close. It could end up 70-0. There are just so many variables though, and that is why Oregon is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games where they were favored by over 30 points. The Ducks called off the dogs last week and will likely do so again this week. Just in time for a Colorado cover...Oregon 57, Colorado 14.Bonus MAC 4-pack of the Week: Northern Illinois -8 at Western Michigan. The Huskies are starting to look like the best team in the MAC and the Broncos are not on par with the MAC elite, as evidenced by their 0-3 record against Toledo, Ball State and Kent State by a combined 43 points. Northern Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meeting between the two and has won their last 4 games by an average of 28.75 points...Northern Illinois 34, Western Michigan 17.
Kent State +13.5 at Rutgers. The MAC has been a thorn in the side of the Big East all season and this one is another opportunity for an upper tier MAC team to show it can play with the big boys. The Scarlett Knights defense is stifling, but Kent State's is rounding into form as well. I don't see an upset here, but I will take the points in a fairly low-scoring affair...Rutgers 20, Kent State 13.
Toledo -7.5 at Buffalo. Another one of the upper-division MAC teams takes on a lower-division team. The Rockets are coming off an upset of Cincinnati and all the spread trends favor them in this match-up. Buffalo struggles to score at times and if they fall behind, it can get out of hand...Toledo 31, Buffalo 17.
Akron +7 at Central Michigan. A team that is 2-5 and has only covered 4 of their past 27 games is giving away 7 points. I will take them even though Akron is 1-7. The Zips have covered 4 times this year and have been playing better than the Chippewas as of late...Central Michigan 38, Akron 35.

Other Games:
Nevada -3.5 at Air Force. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games and get a visit from Nevada who is 4-0 on the road. The Wolfpack will be looking to get back on track after stubbing their toe at home against San Diego State last week and Stefphon Jefferson and Cody Fajardo are a match-up nightmare for Air Force...Nevada 42, Air Force 21.
NC State +7.5 at North Carolina. The underdog is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings and NC State has won 5 straight overall in this rivalry. The Wolfpack are also playing to stay in the hunt for a Division title, something the Tar Heels are ineligible for this season. It also seems like every NC State game comes down to the last play...NC State 24, North Carolina 23.
Baylor +2.5 at Iowa State. The Cyclone defense showed some chinks last week, and their star linebackers can be negated by Baylor's spread passing attack. I don't see how Iowa State can keep up in this one once Nick Florence gets cooking...Baylor 45, Iowa State 24.

Monday, October 22, 2012

PAC-12Washington (3-4) - Oregon State (L), at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 6-6 (the next 2 weeks are big so the Huskies aren't forced to win three in a row)

Arizona (4-3) - USC (L), at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 6-6 (with a home game vs Colorado, the Wildcats just need to find one other victory)

California (3-5) - at Utah (W), Washington (W), Oregon (L), at Oregon State (L), projected record 5-7 (the loser of the game against Utah this week is realistically eliminated from bowl contention)

Big 10Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.

Michigan State (4-4) - at Wisconsin (L), Nebraska (W), Northwestern (W), at Minnesota (W), projected record 7-5 (staring at 4-5, the Nebraska game could make or break the season)

Iowa (4-3) - at Northwestern (L), at Indiana (W), Purdue (W), at Michigan (L), Nebraska (L), projected record 6-6 (back to being squarely on the bubble, an upset at Northwestern would make things more comfortable)

Purdue (3-4) - at Minnesota (W), Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 6-6 (a huge game with Minnesota this week that could be a bowl elimination game)

Minnesota (4-3) - at Purdue (L), Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 5-7 (with their two best shots at winning being on the road, it looks like another year home for the holidays for the Gophers)

SECNote: Other Bowl Projections still have as many as 11 SEC teams bowl-eligible. As you see below, there is a good chance that number gets to 10, but 11 is a stretch unless there are big upsets.

Tennessee (3-4) - at South Carolina (L), Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (the Vols are included because they are staring 3-5 straight in the face. With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)

Vanderbilt (3-4) - Massachusetts (W), at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (a close win against Auburn leads into two winnable games upcoming, which would leave them only needing one of the last three)

Missouri (3-4) - Kentucky (W), at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (the game at Tennessee will be a huge game for both teams, but Missouri just hasn't been healthy enough to compete in the SEC this season)

Arkansas (3-4) - Ole Miss (W), Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 5-7 (Arkansas is playing better, but they likely need an upset at Mississippi State to get to 6-6)

Ole Miss (4-3) - at Arkansas (L), at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 5-7 (it is still hard to say if the Rebels are ready for this step, but this week's game at Arkansas looms large)

Oklahoma State (4-2) - TCU (W), at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (L), projected record 6-6 (The Cowboys looked pretty good this week, but the schedule remains an obstacle)

TCU (5-2) - at Oklahoma State (L), at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 5-7 (only need one more win, but who are they going to beat?)

Baylor (3-3) - at Iowa State (W), Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (L), Oklahoma State (W) - projected record 6-6 (I am not sure how they beat both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, so a win at Iowa State this week might be a necessity)

Iowa State (4-3) - Baylor (L), Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 5-7 (pivotal game vs Baylor this week, with the loser in great danger of missing a bowl)

Big EastPittsburgh (3-4) - Temple (W), at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)

Temple (3-3) - at Pittsburgh (L), at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (This weeks game at Pittsburgh may likely determine the 4th bowl slot from the Big East.)

South Florida (2-5) - Syracuse (W), Connecticut (W), at Miami FL (L), at Cincinnati (L), Pittsburgh (L), projected record 4-8 (It's now or never for the Bulls in 2012)

Friday, October 19, 2012

Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 6-5. Season record: 36-25-2. Lock of the Week: 4-2.

MAC 2-Pack Double Lock of the Week: Kent State -3.5 vs Western Michigan. The Golden Flash are serious MAC contenders while Western Michigan is surviving a quarterback injury and a partial rebuilding year. I am going to go with the home team and their all-purpose dynamo Dri Archer to take care of business...Kent State 34, Western Michigan 24.Win

Ball State -3 at Central Michigan. The Cardinals are playing well and it seems the Iowa game is an outlier for the Chippewas. Central Michigan is 4-22 ATS in their last 26 games, while Ball State is 10-3 ATS in their last 13. The numbers don't lie so we have to go with them...Ball State 41, Central Michigan 28 WinThe Ol' Ball Coach Pick of the Week Part II: South Carolina +3.5 at Florida. Last week, the Gamecocks did not win as predicted, but did give me the cover. This week, they are giving me enough points to go their way again, even with a questionable Marcus Lattimore. As usual, points will be at a premium...South Carolina 18, Florida 17. Loss

Double 19 Giveaways of the Week: Ohio State -19 vs Purdue. The Buckeyes defense has struggled, but its my faith in their offense that makes 19 points easier to swallow. The Boliermakers have no won in Columbus since the 80's and I don't see a Rubik's Cube revival on Saturday. Purdue looked like it quit in the second half the last two weeks and may be demoralized for 4 quarters on the road this week. Take Brutus in a rout...Ohio State 56, Purdue 14. Loss

Mississippi State -19 vs Middle Tennessee. I have two theories at play here plus the number that says the Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. My first theory is that with star RB Benny Cunningham out for the year, the Blue Raiders are going to struggle to score against a very good Mississippi State defense. My second theory is that Miss State feels like the disrespected one in the SEC and would like a convincing victory to enhance their profile. It all adds up...Mississippi State 40, Middle Tennessee 10. Win

Fooled Me Once Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky. ULM was perfect for me this year until the dreaded garbage TD by FAU with less than 30 seconds left. I am loyal, sometimes to a fault. So once again I am going with ULM against a team that has covered 11 consecutive games. The road team has covered in all 3 matchups between these two, and its not like ULM covering 8 of 10 is bad. I know this is one to stay away from, but I just can't..Louisiana-Monroe 31, Western Kentucky 30. Win

Other Games:
Iowa State +14 at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are still a mystery to me and the quarterback play has been erratic. Iowa State played Texas Tech and Kansas State tough, so I don't see why they won't do the same in Stillwater...Oklahoma State 30, Iowa State 24. Loss

NC State -3 at Maryland. The Terps are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games. They have overachieved as well and NC State still has ACC Championship visions if it can win out...NC State 24, Maryland 17. Loss

Marshall +3.5 at Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are 0-6 and while they have been in some games, being a favorite seems like quite a stretch. Tulane got me last week with a good performance, but I think Rakeem Cato can take care of a winless team...Marshall 38, Southern Miss 24. Win

Penn State +2.5 at Iowa. Kinnick is the House of Horrors for the Nittany Lions, but the Hawkeyes are likely without Mark Weisman, which is like being without your entire offense. Until Weisman emerged, the Hawkeyes had averaged 17 points against defenses inferior to that of Penn State. The Hawkeyes defense has played better lately too, but if your offense can't score...Penn State 17, Iowa 12. Win
Wake Forest +3.5 at Virginia. Two teams that are reeling, but the Demon Deacons a little less than the Cavaliers. Plus Virginia is 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 and the road team is 8-2-1 in the last 11 ATS in this match-up. Vegas seems slow on the demise of UVA...Wake Forest 27, Virginia 17. Win

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. I have also added a guide to the best/most intriguing games of the week.

Big 10What I am watching: Is Northwestern for real? Is Michigan State really an impostor? Can Iowa continue their resurgence? Is the old Wisconsin power running game really back? I'll start in Evanston, where Northwestern welcomes Nebraksa. The Wildcats still have their doubters and a win this week would silence the majority of them. Remember, Northwestern went into Lincoln and upset the Cornhuskers a year ago. Sparty travels to the Big House and all indications favor the home Wolverines. The Michigan defense is playing at a high level and the MSU offense, well, it is not. Denard Robinson struggled in East Lansing a year ago and has yet to beat the in-state rival. If he can make even a few plays, it will be tough for a reeling Spartans team to overcome. Penn State visits Iowa, where the Hawkeyes have rebounded from a rocky start to go 2-0 in the Big 10. Penn State also comes in 2-0 and I would not expect a lot of points here. Finally, Wisconsin bludgeoned Purdue with a running game circa de 2011. The Badgers will look to continue that trend with Minnesota coming to town to try and steal the ax. Montee Ball looked like a Heisman contender a week ago and needs to look that part to get Bucky into Rose Bowl contenders.

Upset alert: Northwestern over Nebraska. In what could be a shoot-out, this game could go either way depending on which teams defense shows up to play. Wouldn't it be something if Northwestern ran their record to 2-0 vs Nebraska in the "Battle of Nowledge"? Last week: Wisconsin over Purdue (should have been Wisconsin over Purdue or Iowa over Michigan State).

Player on the spot: Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan. Simply put, he hasn't beaten Michigan State. All signs point to that happening. Robinson just needs to avoid the detours. Last week: Mark Weisman, RB, Iowa - 26 carries, 116 yards and the tying TD with 55 seconds left in a 19-16 win over Michigan State.

ACCWhat I am watching: Did Virginia Tech get the wake-up call it needed or is Clemson just a much better team? Was Duke sent reeling setting them up for a clunker against a really good North Carolina team? Is Maryland or NC State more for real in the ACC Atlantic? The Hokies travel to Clemson hoping their season took a turn for the better after spotting Duke a 20-0 lead last week. Last season, the Tigers had the Hokies number twice, so this will not be an easy trip for Tech. Clemson has their eyes on the BCS and needs to win out and hope for another Florida State trip-up, which we all know is entirely possible. Duke was headed toward bowl-eligibility when the Hokie ambush hit and now has to travel to face a Tar Heel team playing as well as any ACC team right now. For those that don't know Gio Bernard's name, you will soon as the UNC tailback is tearing up opponents after an early season injury. Lastly, Maryland has been a surprise and NC State has the upset of the year in the ACC. They meet Saturday in College Park where one will emerge as a chief contender with FSU and Clemson in the ACC Atlantic.

Upset alert: Wake Forest over Virginia. I will go with Virginia again because somehow they are still favored despite playing arguably the worst football in the ACC. Problem is, Wake would be part of that argument too. Last week: Maryland over Virginia (should have been Maryland over Virginia)

Player on the spot: Tajh Boyd, QB, Clemson. The Tigers should beat the Hokies again this year and Boyd can continue his mastery of them. In the two victories last season, Boyd accounted for 500 yards and 5 TD's. Last week: Gio Bernard, RB, North Carolina - 27 carries, 177 yards, 2 TD's in an 18-14 win over Miami, FL.

SECWhat I am watching: Can Florida keep the momentum that eventually leads to an undefeated showdown with Alabama in the SEC Championship game? Or will South Carolina regain control of the SEC East? I will also be watching Johnny Manziel to see how the super-frosh can do against a tough LSU defense. The big one is in Gainesville, where Florida looks to hand South Carolina its second consecutive loss. The Gaotrs handled LSU while the Gamecocks did not, but irregardless, this is a must win for each to get to the SEC Championship. If Florida wins, it will basically need to dispatch Georgia and be headed to Atlanta. If South Carolina wins, they own the head-to-head vs Georgia and Florida and will just need to avoid a slip-up on their way to Atlanta. It will be a typical SEC battle, where points are hard to come by and punts can be a positive play. In College Station, Texas A&M gets another crack at an elite SEC team, losing a close one to Florida earlier in the year. Johnny Manziel continues to set records and may be more comfortable this time around.

Upset alert: Texas A&M over LSU and South Carolina over Florida. Many think LSU got back on track last week, but let's see how they take it on the road again this week against a quality opponent. South Carolina is less dangerous if Marcus Lattimore is out, but the defenses will likely decide the fate in the South Carolina/Florida game. Last week: South Carolina over LSU (should have been None).

Player on the spot: Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M. He has set the SEC all-purpose yardage record twice already this season. Now comes the tough part. Conquer one of the best defenses he will see all season and lead the Aggies to a signature win in their inaugural SEC adventure. Last week: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina - 6 tackles, no sacks in a 23-21 loss to LSU.Big 12What I am watching: All eyes are on Morgantown, where Kansas State visits the Mountaineers in another big showdown. A little luster came off this game with West Virginia's loss last week, but this is still another in a long season of Big 12 heavyweight bouts. Geno Smith and company must play with more urgency as another loss will be devastating to their title hopes. Collin Klein will have something to say about that and may have something to say about the Heisman race in this one as well. If the West Virginia defense doesn't show, it won't matter even with the home crowd in their favor. 3 other interesting games dot the Big 12 card this weekend. A tough Iowa State team travels to Stillwater where the Cowboys will look to avenge last season's surprising and only loss. I am still unsure on this Oklahoma State team and I think this week will tell us a lot. Texas Tech is at TCU on Saturday as they try to follow-up last week's upset surprise of West Virginia. TCU got back on track with a huge win over Baylor, so both teams enter with momentum. Finally, Baylor visits Texas in a game where the loser takes their third conference loss already. Both teams were punched in the face last week. Will either one hop back up?

Upset alert: Kansas State over West Virginia. As I eluded to above, you can talk about the Geno Smith vs Collin Klein match-up all day, but if the Mountaineer defense stinks again, the Wildcats will emerge still unbeaten and in the thick of the National Title race. Last week: Texas over Oklahoma (should have been Texas Tech over West Virginia or TCU over Baylor).

Player on the spot: Nick Florence, QB, Baylor. The Big 12 could get 9 teams to bowls, but the Bears may be the most tenuous. Florence can prove me wrong by leading an upset of Texas and make us forget about that RG guy. Last week: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma - 21-37, 321 yards, 2 TD, 1 Int in a 63-21 destruction of Texas.

PAC-12What I am watching: Oregon faces their best opponent to date on the road on a Thursday night. Will all the stars align for an Arizona State upset? The Sun Devils defense is playing well and they have adapted to the high pace offense of coach Todd Graham. Can they outscore Oregon at their own game? The Ducks defense is also playing at a high level, but this seems like a dangerous game for them. Will Oregon unleash a little more D'Anthony Thomas this week? This one should be a fun way to start the College Football weekend. Stanford and Cal meet in October for like the first time ever. Cal needs this game if a bowl is to be a possibility. Arizona needs to get back on track at home vs Washington or a bowl might slip from their fingers as well.

Upset alert: Cal over Stanford. The Stanford offense has looked stagnant at times and Cal is starting to play better. Being a home underdog is extra motivation for the "Big Game". Last week: None(should have been none).

Player on the spot: D'Anthony Thomas, RB/WR, Oregon. There is a lot of hype surrounding Thomas and when he touches the ball, I would recommend stopping to watch. The problem is the amount of touches he is getting. This might be the game to get Mr. Thomas more involved. Last week: Josh Nunes, QB, Stanford - 12-25, 125 yards, 0 TD, 2 int in a 20-13 OT loss to Notre Dame.

Big EastWhat I am watching: Two of the Big East's three unbeatens go on the road. Rutgers has an interesting test against a Temple team that has won 2 in a row to start the Big East season. The Owls play similar to the Scarlett Knights and keep games close by running the ball and playing good defense. Rutgers is mastering that concept, but with the big games ahead, this could be a trap week for them. It also might be a trap week for Cincinnati, who travels to play the high-flying Toledo Rockets. The Rockets are explosive and Cincy similarly has important Big East games coming up. Despite the defensive struggles of Toledo, Munchie and the Bearcats best be ready.

Upset alert: Toledo over Cincinnati. Its mid-October and this is the Bearcats first road game. That seems like a recipe for potential disaster. Last week: Temple over Connecticut (should have been Temple over Connecticut).

Player in the spotlight: B.J. Daniels, QB, South Florida. Daniels erratic play has contributed to the disappointing start for the Bulls. He needs to turn it around this week and save the season for South Florida. Last week: Tino Sunseri, QB, Pittsburgh - 28-37, 287 yards, 3 TD (1 rushing) in a 45-35 loss to Louisville.Non-BCS ConferencesWhat I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again), Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech(again) and Middle Tennessee State have done it the first five weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 16? This week there are two chances...Cincinnati at Toledo and Middle Tennessee at Mississippi State.

Upset alert: Marshall over Southern Mississippi. I am not sure how 0-6 Southern Miss is favored, but in Rakeem Cato I believe. Look for this one in Jabesblog's picks of the week. Last week: Fresno State over Boise State (should have been Tulane over SMU).

PAC-12Washington (3-3) - at Arizona (L), Oregon State (L), at California (L), Utah (W), at Colorado (W), at Washington State (W), projected record 6-6 (the next 3 weeks could go either way, so a 1-2 stretch should make them safe with the last 3 being the easiest on the schedule, although 2 are on the road)

Arizona (3-3) - Washington (W), USC (L), at UCLA (L), Colorado (W), at Utah (W), Arizona State (L), projected record 6-6 (huge game vs Washington this week will likely determine the fate for the rest of the year)

California (3-4) - Stanford (L), at Utah (W), Washington (W), Oregon (L), at Oregon State (L), projected record 5-7 (Stanford at home or at Oregon State best chances to get to 6-6)

Utah (2-4) - at Oregon State (L), California (L), Washington State (W), at Washington (L), Arizona (L), at Colorado (W), projected record 4-8 (can get to 6-6 if they play better and beat Cal and Arizona at home)

Big 10Note: Many Bowl Projections are leaving 8 Big Ten Teams in this week. I am going with 7, as you see right now I am moving the Golden Gophers out this week.

Michigan State (4-3) - at Michigan (L), at Wisconsin (L), Nebraska (W), Northwestern (W), at Minnesota (W), projected record 7-5 (staring at 4-5 with two tough road games, the Nebraska game could make or break the season)

Purdue (3-3) - at Ohio State (L), at Minnesota (W), Penn State (L), at Iowa (L), at Illinois (W), Indiana (W) - projected record 6-6 (with games at OSU and Iowa, a split in the Minnesota/Penn State games is paramount)

Minnesota (4-2) - at Wisconsin (L), Purdue (L), Michigan (L), at Illinois (W), at Nebraska (L), Michigan State (L), projected record 5-7 (the game vs Purdue next week will loom large for both teams, a loss there and an upset of one of the Michigan squads would likely be necessary)

SECNote: Other Bowl Projections still have as many as 11 SEC teams bowl-eligible. As you see below, there is a good chance that number gets to 10, but 11 is a stretch unless there are big upsets.

Tennessee (3-3) - Alabama (L), at South Carolina (L), Troy (W), Missouri (W), at Vanderbilt (W), Kentucky (W), projected record 7-5 (the Vols are included because they are staring 3-5 straight in the face. With Troy and Kentucky at home, it really comes down to splitting the Missouri/Vandy games.)

Vanderbilt (2-4) - Auburn (W), Massachusetts (W), at Kentucky (W), at Ole Miss (L), Tennessee (L), at Wake Forest (W) - projected record 6-6 (with 6 winnable games, the Commodores need to get it started this week against Auburn and win the close ones down the stretch)

Missouri (3-4) - Kentucky (W), at Florida (L), at Tennessee (L), Syracuse (W), at Texas A&M (L), projected record 5-7 (the game at Tennessee will be a huge game for both teams, but Missouri just hasn't been healthy enough to compete in the SEC this season)

Arkansas (3-4) - Ole Miss (W), Tulsa (W), at South Carolina (L), at Mississippi State (L), LSU (L), projected record 5-7 (Arkansas is playing better, but they likely need an upset at Mississippi State to get to 6-6)

Ole Miss (4-3) - at Arkansas (L), at Georgia (L), Vanderbilt (W), at LSU (L), Mississippi State (L), projected record 5-7 (it is still hard to say if the Rebels are ready for this step, but next week's game at Arkansas looms large)

Oklahoma State (3-2) - Iowa State (W), TCU (W), at Kansas State (L), West Virginia (L), Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma (L), at Baylor (L), projected record 6-6 (I still don't know how good the Cowboys are, so with only 3 wins to date they have to be considered a bubble team)

TCU (5-1) - Texas Tech (W), at Oklahoma State (L), at West Virginia (L), Kansas State (L), at Texas (L), Oklahoma (L), projected record 6-6 (only need one more win, but if they don't get it the next two weeks, then where?)

Baylor (3-2) - at Texas (L), at Iowa State (L), Kansas (W), at Oklahoma (L), Kansas State (L), Texas Tech (W), Oklahoma State (W) - projected record 6-6 (I can't drop them out of the bowls based on one bad performance, but finding 6 wins will be tough without improved play)

Iowa State (4-2) - at Oklahoma State (L), Baylor (W), Oklahoma (L), at Texas (L), at Kansas (W), West Virginia (L), projected record 6-6 (right now I have both in, but the winner of the Baylor/Iowa State game could be for the 8th and final bid from the Big 12)

ACCDuke (5-2) - North Carolina (L), at Florida State (L), Clemson (L), at Georgia Tech (L), Miami FL (W), projected record 6-6 (not really sure which one they will win, but they still have five chances to get one)

Virginia Tech (4-3) - at Clemson (L), at Miami FL (L), Florida State (L), at Boston College (W), Virginia (W), projected record 6-6 (may have turned the corner last week, so winning any of the next three doesn't seem so far-fetched)

Maryland (4-2) - NC State (L), at Boston College (W), Georgia Tech (W), at Clemson (L), Florida State (L), at North Carolina (L), projected record 6-6 (would behoove the Terps to win 2 of the next 3 and lock it up)

Georgia Tech (2-4) - Boston College (W), BYU (L), at Maryland (L), at North Carolina (L), Duke (W), at Georgia (L), projected record 4-8 (a 3-game winning streak would be very helpful to Tech, who is capable of turning it around after playing well at Clemson)

Wake Forest (3-3) - at Virginia (L), Clemson (L), Boston College (W), at NC State (L), at Notre Dame (L), Vanderbilt (L), projected record 4-8 (a loss at Virginia in two weeks would be devastating)

Big EastPittsburgh (2-4) - at Buffalo (W), Temple (W), at Notre Dame (L), at Connecticut (W), Rutgers (L), at South Florida (W), projected record 6-6 (I am giving Pitt the benefit of the doubt, but they have no margin for error)

Temple (3-2) - Rutgers (L), at Pittsburgh (L), at Louisville (L), Cincinnati (L), at Army (W), Syracuse (W), projected record 5-6 (the task for the Owls is to win one of the next four to make the Army and Syracuse games meaningful. Temple may regret not scheduling a 12th game against an FCS team.)

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Instead of picking every game straight up this year, I thought I would go more Vegas-style and select certain games each week to pick against the spread. Last weeks record: 8-3. Season record: 30-20-2. Lock of the Week: 3-2.

Lock of the Week: Western Kentucky -2 at Troy. The Hilltoppers have covered 10 straight and 21 of 26. Troy is playing better in 2012 than they did in 2011, but Western Kentucky is one of the teams to beat in the Sun Belt. The numbers don't lie, so why not ride them...Western Kentucky 30, Troy 20.

The Ol' Ball Coach Pick of the Week: South Carolina +3 at LSU. I went against the Gamecocks last week and look where it got me. I think South Carolina is the better team and the LSU offense shows no signs of being able to do anything against a defense that may be better than Florida's. In a low-scoring affair, I'll take the points and the upset...South Carolina 19, LSU 13.

MAC 3-Pack of the Week: Kent State -2 at Army. Army got a huge win vs Boston College last week, but they did also lose to Stony Brook. The Golden Flash are playing really well and have a run defense good enough to slow down Army and get the victory...Kent State 41, Army 28.
Toledo -14 at Eastern Michigan. The Rockets are establishing themselves as serious contenders in the MAC, while Eastern Michigan struggles in all facets and has been beat by an average of 22 points at home. No reason to think Toledo won't do at least that...Toledo 41, Eastern Michigan 7.
Northern Illinois -13 vs Buffalo. The Huskies are rolling and host a 1-4 Buffalo team that has been competitive on the road this season. The average losing margin the last three road trips against Northern though is a whopping 37.3!! Competitive, but not this week...Northern Illinois 38, Buffalo 14.

Geno Mancrush Pick of the Week: West Virginia -3.5 at Texas Tech. As I stated last week, the Mountaineers are better at covering on the road. I think last week also proved that West Virginia is a serious National Title contender and Texas Tech is not a serious Big 12 Title contender. It might seem like a trap game, if so I am falling into it...West Virginia 49, Texas Tech 27.

Were You Waiting For It? Pick of the Week: Louisiana-Monroe -24 vs Florida Atlantic. The worst team in the Sun Belt comes to visit one of my darlings. FAU really can't score, so predicting a blow-out is not that far-fetched...Louisiana-Monroe 38, Florida Atlantic 0.

Other Games:
Duke +9.5 at Virginia Tech. The Blue Devils have never won in Blacksburg and they may not this year either. But there is no reason to think they won't keep it close against a struggling Hokie team...Virginia Tech 27, Duke 26.
Temple +5.5 at Connecticut. Hard to turn down over a field goal in a game likely to be very low-scoring. Plus Temple has the momentum and a new weapon in Montel Harris...Temple 20, Connecticut 19.
SMU -16 at Tulane. The Green Wave boast the worst offense in the FBS. The road team has covered 8 straight in this match-up. Looks like everything is pointing the way of the Mustangs this week...SMU 27, Tulane 3.

Alabama -21 at Missouri. The Crimson Tide vs a back-up quarterback? I seem to remember a 52-0 result against Arkansas in a similar situation a few weeks ago. The Missouri defense is better than the Razorbacks, but if you only score 15 against Vandy, how many can you expect against 'Bama...Alabama 31, Missouri 3.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Each week, I take a look at the week ahead, including games, upsets and players to watch for. I have also added a guide to the best/most intriguing games of the week.

Big 10What I am watching: The de facto Leaders Division Championship Game takes place this week with Wisconsin travelling to West Lafayette and a date with the Boilermakers. The Badgers are the only Indy-eligible Leaders Division team with a victory, so a road win against Purdue would essentially give them a 2.5 game lead on Purdue. A Purdue win would give the Boilermakers the tie-breaker over the Badgers with a bit easier schedule the rest of the way, although still 4 on the road. Purdue was bludgeoned a week ago by Denard Robinson's running, a threat Wisconsin does not have. Wisconsin has dropped both road contests by 3 points, but has been offensively inept for 6 of the 8 quarters on the road. The key to the game will be getting the Badger running game going that finally showed life in the 4th quarter against Illinois last week and not allowing the Purdue pass rush to tee off in second and third and long situations. Elsewhere, Northwestern tries to bounce back from their first loss and is on the road a second consecutive week at Minnesota, in a game the Gophers need before their schedule gets daunting. Iowa plays at East Lansing, where we have no idea what Hawkeye or Spartan teams will show up (don't look for this one in the Jabesblog Picks this week).

Upset alert: Wisconsin over Purdue. The Badgers have won 6 straight meetings with the Boilers by an average of 23 points and have taken 4 straight in West Lafayette. While the Big 10 seems like a week-to-week league in 2012, these teams appeared headed in opposite directions last week. Last week: Purdue over Michigan (should have been none).

Player on the spot: Mark Weisman, RB, Iowa. Weisman is averaging 7 ypc and has 7 TD's and has been the bright spot on a faltering Hawkeye offense. A big task awaits in East Lansing this week, but if Weisman can get going, Iowa might be able to put up enough points to take down Sparty. Last week: Kain Colter, QB/WR, Northwestern - 8 touches, 41 total yards, 1 TD in a 39-28 loss to Penn State.

ACCWhat I am watching: The league's biggest surprise travels to play one of the league's biggest disappointments when Duke goes to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech Saturday. With a win, the Blue Devils will be the ACC's first bowl-eligible team, a feat so shocking you have to repeat it back. The Hokies are reeling and face a must-win or face the distinct possibility of missing out on the bowls. Virginia Tech was supposed to have a top defense in 2012, but have given up almost 37 ppg in their 3 losses. Duke can put points up and has played with an improved defense. The Blue Devils have never won in Blacksburg, but this marks the best chance for them to do so.

Upset alert: Maryland over Virginia. Maryland is better than expected and Virginia can't stop anyone defensively. Both teams need this one for their future bowl prospects, but unless the Cavaliers figure things out quickly, Saturday will be their last hurrah. Last week: Virginia Tech over North Carolina (should have been NC State over Florida State, Army over Boston College or Duke over Virginia)

Player on the spot: Gio Bernard, RB, North Carolina. Coming off a 262 yard effort against Virginia Tech, Bernard and the Tar Heels head to Miami this week. The Hurricanes have owned the ACC so far with a 3-0 start, but have looked meager against Kansas State and Notre Dame. UNC is not bowl-eligible, but if Benard can reprise his showing from a week ago, they will establish themselves as the best team in the Coastal Division. Last week: Stephen Morris, QB, Miami, FL - 18-35, 201 Yards, 0 TD in a 41-3 loss vs Notre Dame.

SECWhat I am watching: South Carolina takes to the road for the second leg of their three-game gauntlet, heading to Baton Rouge to face a now angry and potentially desperate LSU team. The Tigers had National Championship aspirations that appear to only be alive if they can win out and take the SEC Championship. The question is whether this version of LSU is good enough to do that. Offensive struggles, including turnovers have plagued the Tigers and Florida got a running game going last week against them. Marcus Lattimore is the challenge this week, but the biggest difference might be that the Gamecock defense is better than LSU's. The home crowd will definitely favor the Tigers in what should be another great SEC brawl on Saturday.

Upset alert: South Carolina over LSU. It's going to be an all Gamecock/Tiger preview in the SEC this week, as South Carolina looks to prove they are on par with Alabama by winning a huge road game. If the LSU offense can't get the crowd into it, the one advantage the home team has will be negated. Don't expect a lot of points here, but do expect the upset. Last week: Florida over LSU (should have been Florida over LSU, Arkansas over Auburn or Vanderbilt over Missouri).

Player on the spot: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina. Potentially the best defensive player in the nation (Manti Te'o disagrees), Clowney will need to wreak his usual havoc on LSU to establish South Carolina as the dominant team on Saturday. Last week: Aaron Murray, QB, Georgia - 11-31, 109 Yards, 0 TD, 1 Int in a 35-7 trouncing at the hands of South Carolina.

Big 12What I am watching: The conference unbeatens both have tricky road tests, but the big game is the Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Both Texas and Oklahoma come into their annual affair with one loss, meaning the loser is all but eliminated from the conference race. The demise of Oklahoma may have been premature as they bounced back against a good Texas Tech team on the road. It is the Longhorns turn to bounce back after dropping their first game to West Virginia. The Sooner offense is still figuring it out and faces a slightly disappointing Texas defense. The key may be how the Sooner defense handles a versatile Texas attack. The watch will be on in Ames and Lubbock, as Kansas State and West Virginia try to avoid road upsets that derail their title hopes.

Upset alert: Texas over Oklahoma. The Sooner offense is still not right, despite last weeks effort. Texas may have been outgunned by the best in the Big 12 last week and could easily bounce back to stay in the Big 12 race. Last week: West Virginia over Texas (should have been West Virginia over Texas or Iowa State over TCU).

Player on the spot: Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma. It has to be Jones again. He returned for his senior season to win a championship and that is all on the line this week against his biggest rival. if Jones is not huge in this one, the Sooners will be disappointing again. Last week: Bob Stoops, Coach, Oklahoma - defeated previously undefeated Texas Tech 41-20 in Lubbock.

PAC-12What I am watching: Stanford and Oregon State have tough non-conference road tests and Utah and UCLA battle to avoid a third conference loss. Also, Steve Sarkisian and Washington try to upend USC for the third time in 4 meetings. The Cardinal travel to Notre Dame and try and dent the impenetrable Irish defense. The Beavers head to Provo against BYU without their quarterback Sean Mannion. Both teams can provide the PAC-12 with another signature victory in non-conference and boost its BCS chances. UCLA is reeling now and gets a chance to face a Utah team that is less talented and showing that in 2012.

Upset alert: None. I am going to that well another week, as once again UCLA is the most likely victim and I have them beating Utah this week. I guess they are still on upset alert, since they can easily be beat this week. Last week: None(should have been Cal over UCLA).

Player on the spot: Josh Nunes, QB, Stanford. Andrew Luck won 3 straight against the Irish, who all of a sudden won't give up a touchdown. Nunes will have to find a way to do so on the road, where he recently struggled at Washington if the Cardinal harbor any hopes of the upset. Last week: Robert Woods, WR, USC - 6 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD in a 38-28 win over Utah.

Big EastWhat I am watching: The 3 Big East unbeatens are in action, with Louisville having the toughest test at Pitt. With an extra week to prepare, the Cardinals should be ready for the Panthers and with Pitt, we have no idea which version will come to play. Cincinnati should cruise against Fordham, but Rutgers always has less margin for error if their defense shows any holes this week against Syracuse.

Upset alert: Temple over Connecticut. The Huskies have trouble scoring and the Owls are riding the momentum of last weeks win over South Florida. Last week: Pittsburgh over Syracuse (should have been Temple over South Florida).

Unit in the spotlight: Tino Sunseri, QB, Pittsburgh. Louisville has been susceptible to the pass and Sunseri will have to take advantage if Pitt is going to upset the Cardinals. Sunseri was good last week in a loss at Syracuse, but didn't make enough plays when it counted. Last week: Temple Owls defense - 28 points, 384 yards allowed, 3 turnovers in 37-28 upset of South Florida.

Non-BCS ConferencesWhat I am watching: I am always watching for how many victories the Non-BCS schools can accumulate against the BCS conferences. Ohio, Nevada, Colorado State, Utah State, Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Western Kentucky, Ball State, Fresno State, Central Michigan, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Ball State(again), Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech(again) and Middle Tennessee State have done it the first five weeks with the victories over Penn State, California, Colorado, Utah, Arkansas, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana, Colorado(again), Iowa, Connecticut, Kansas(again), South Florida, Illinois, Virginia and Georgia Tech, respectively. Last season the total was 15. The chances are dwindling as the non-conference season slows, but which games this week might add to the current 16? This week there is only one chance...Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech.

Upset alert: Fresno State over Boise State. We do not really know how good Boise State is and Fresno State must be salivating at the chance to win on the blue turf. The Bulldogs have the playmakers to take down the Broncos in what should be a great game on Saturday. Last week: Utah State over BYU (should have been Navy over Air Force).

Players on the spot: Colby Cameron, QB, Louisiana Tech. Cameron gets a second nod in three weeks as he gets a chance to show he and Louisiana tech are for real when they host Texas A&M in a hurricane make-up game Saturday. The Aggies would probably rather have a bye week in the middle of the SEC gauntlet, so this may be a chance for the Bulldogs to surprise and keep their hopes for an undefeated season alive. Last week: Kolton Browning, QB, Louisiana-Monroe - 26-38, 285 Yards, 1 TD, 44 rushing yards in a 31-17 victory over Middle Tennessee State.