Decision Support for Uncertain Climate Futures: The Confidence Trap

posted Monday, April 17, 2017

For more than 200 years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has had primary responsibility for water resource operations on most major U.S. river systems. Managing the impacts of climate variability and change is a significant challenge; projections of specific, possible threats and impacts to regional scale hydrology are still uncertain enough that explicit guidance is needed on their interpretation and use. This talk will describe new approaches to helping decision makers understand uncertainties in managing real river systems, aiming to avoid communication issues about confidence while respecting uncertainties.

Jeff Arnold is senior scientist and lead climate scientist at the USACE, where he integrates climate change considerations, including both adaptation and mitigation, into water resources applications. He co-directs the USACE National Climate Preparedness and Resilience programs and is coordinating lead author for adaptation in the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment.

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