The Latest

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tonight, CBS premieres the new drama Zoo, based on a James Patterson novel about animal attacks on humans. Like previous CBS efforts Under the Dome and Extant (and unlike many scripted efforts on other networks), this show was explicitly intended for the summer. Certainly, CBS is hoping more for a breakout like Under the Dome (premiered at 3.3) rather than a ratings disappointment like Extant (premiered at 1.6 but still renewed). Will viewers visit the Zoo? That's The Question for Tuesday, June 30, 2015.

Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Suits came around on the tail end of that roughly five-year period when USA was churning out new drama launches with mid-1 ratings like clockwork. Its lead-in Burn Notice opened the summer 2011 run with 5.167 million viewers and a 1.7 demo, and Suits held onto almost all of it with 4.636 million and a 1.6. Both shows plummeted the next week, to a respective 1.3/1.2, but they bounced back a bit from there and remained in a very close ratings lock-step. Suits even built from Burn Notice on a couple occasions, perhaps most impressively on 7/28/11 when it had a 1.5 to Burn's 1.4. Suits' first season fell pretty much in the middle of a tightly-packed upper tier of USA dramas, slightly behind Royal Pains (1.46) and Burn Notice (1.38) and just ahead of Necessary Roughness (1.23), Covert Affairs (1.23) and White Collar (1.22).

In season two, Suits started with a modest 1.1 demo but grew the next two weeks and only dropped as low as 1.1 once more the whole summer. It seemed to have some real heat at season's end; its 1.4 and 1.5 to wrap up the summer were both two tenths ahead of their respective Burn Notice lead-ins. This strong hold put the show's average just a hundredth behind Burn Notice. And it stacked up way ahead of the other USA dramas, pretty much all of which began taking huge same-day declines in 2012. (The next-highest USA dramas behind the Thursday duo were Royal Pains and White Collar at around 1.0.)

Big Drops, But Not As Big As Its Peers

Beyond season two, Suits hasn't really been able to transcend the general downward trend of the other programming on its network. It shed roughly 20% each of the next two summers, and more than that for the regular season runs. That kept it in about the same relative position in 2013, again narrowly behind Burn Notice in its final season and with about the same-sized lead over Royal Pains (-21%) and Covert Affairs (-20%).

It was dropping just 23% in 2014 that saw the show make another pronounced move compared to the other USA dramas, as Royal Pains and Graceland were both down over a third and Covert Affairs almost half. With Burn Notice gone, that put Suits almost 50% ahead of the next-biggest USA drama. As it's continued to take fairly reasonable-sized drops, it was not truly overshadowed by one of its USA peers until 2017, when its own lead-out The Sinner built on it significantly.

Thursday, June 18, 2015

On the last Wednesday before it has to start competing with Big Brother, Fox's MasterChef hung a third straight 1.5, while its lead-out Bullseye was also even at 1.0.

ABC had a rough night all around, with all four comedy repeats (0.9/0.8/1.0/0.9) down multiple tenths from last week and original Celebrity Wife Swap going all the way from last week's season high 1.2 down to a 0.8 this time. The last 90 minutes got crushed by an American Ninja Warrior repeat on NBC.

And CBS was also at new summer lows all around, including The Briefcase (0.8). It will get one crack with a Big Brother lead-in next week.

Programming note: I'm out of town for the next ten days. Scheduled open threads will go up at 11:10 ET on notable premiere ratings dates: tomorrow (Astronaut Wives Club/Mistresses), Monday (Celebrity Family Feud/BattleBots) and next Friday (Under the Dome/Big Brother Thursday/Boom!/Rookie Blue). I may sporadically add my thoughts on those posts if possible. Also, there will be War of 18-49 stuff throughout next week, as well as a couple other pre-scheduled things. The next Vault/rankings updates will come the following week. Have a good week and a half!

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

FINALS UPDATE: The NBA Finals adjusted up to 8.9 with 23.25 million viewers, up by 1.3 points from the previous couple games.That's 31% above last year's Game 5 finale and a slightly better finale spike than last year's series. The soccer on Fox inched up to 1.8, as did America's Got Talent (2.3) to go even week-to-week.

ABC's NBA Finals basketball wrapped up for the series with a preliminary 7.2 rating from 9:00-11:00, which is 10-15% above the low-6 prelims for recent games (which adjusted up to mid-7's).It'll probably adjust up more due to the championship moment coming after primetime, but a double digit average feels like a reach. Still, it'll easily destroy the 6.8 average for last year's finale.

Fox was also in the sports business on this night with another USA group stage match in the Women's World Cup. It averaged a preliminary 1.7, two tenths above the Friday prelim 1.5 which adjusted up to a 1.6 final, despite the NBA competition preventing it from spiking in the 9:00 hour. (The Friday prelim breakdown was 1.3 -> 1.4 -> 1.6 -> 1.7; this one was 1.6 -> 1.8 -> 1.7 -> 1.6.)

NBC's original lineup had to endure another big dose of sports. While America's Got Talent (2.2) held up OK again, I Can Do That (1.3) got slammed against the bigger NBA hour.

FINALS UPDATE: Game 5 of the Finals adjusted up to 7.6, tying Game 4 as a series high. HBO got a nice finale spike out of Game of Thrones (4.14), which nearly got all the way back to the series high for the season premiere (4.19 on 4/12/15). GoT had been down year-to-year since the halfway point of the season, but this point was 9% above last year's finale.

Sports dominated another three nights of broadcast primetime:

On Friday, the second USA match in the Women's World Cup averaged a preliminary 1.5 for Fox from 8:00 to 10:00. It should be up from the USA opener last Monday on Fox Sports 1 (1.28).

Saturday saw the NHL return to NBC (1.5) after moving to NBCSN for a couple games. The prelim for Game 5 was slightly below last Saturday's preliminary 1.7.

And Sunday had Game 5 of the NBA Finals on ABC. The 6.2 preliminary 18-49 average from 8:00 to 11:00 was just barely above the average in the same period last Sunday. The household overnight hit another new series high 14.2.

In entertainment land, Golan the Insatiable (0.6) and American Odyssey (0.5) inched up from last week's lows. ABC has some premieres next week!

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

After a huge week two drop last time, ABC's The Whispers (0.9) shed another tenth in week three, putting it on par with lower-end Mistresses ratings in the slot last year.

With usual reality winner American Ninja Warrior sitting out this week, ABC's The Bachelorette (1.8) was even, while So You Think You Can Dance (1.3) rebounded to tie the premiere rating for Fox.

NBC dominated with the final game of the Stanley Cup Finals (2.6), which got a significant bounce vs. the high-1's for other NBC games. It'll also be up from last year's decisive Game 5, which had a 2.3 on a Friday.

2011-12 was a season marked by many big initial samplings for comedies, and Last Man Standing had one of the most impressive starts of all since it didn't have some huge primetime program leading in. Instead, it drew its 13.19 million viewers and 3.6 demo rating from the audience that once made Tim Allen's series Home Improvement a perennial top ten show in the '90s. It dropped to a 3.1 in week two and a 2.8 in week three, but then it held in the upper-2's for most of the rest of the fall and winter.

Things got legitimately shaky for Last Man late in season one, as the show fell into the 1's after daylight saving time and as low as a 1.5 on 5/1/12. It's worth noting that this number was about on par with the lowest historical-adjusted ratings of even the three Friday LMS seasons, so it was a pretty undesirable number leading off a weeknight. However, it had shown enough strength for most of the season that it was renewed... but shifted to low-viewed Friday, where the seemingly fast fading show could've fallen into oblivion.

But ABC had another nostalgia card to play: Reba McEntire, whose newbie Malibu Country joined Last Man for the Friday comedy hour. This brought another vital swath of viewers back. Malibu Country premiered at a 2.3 demo, an awesome number for Friday, and that helped get its lead-in Last Man Standing back to a 2.0 for its Friday debut (which was somewhat miraculously above its last five Tuesday ratings).

Leading Off A Dominant ABC Friday

By its second month, Malibu Country was no longer exceeding or maintaining its lead-in, and it settled at low-to-very-low-1's. That got it cancelled after one season. But considerably more of the initial audience stuck around with Last Man Standing, which was able to stabilize at around a 1.4 to 1.5. So it got another crack at the night for 2013-14.

Season three didn't have the premiere night inflation, and it had a rather disastrous lead-out in The Neighbors, but Last Man Standing still managed to take only a league average decline, and it was much less than that in the second half of the season. The show that had become such a post-DST disaster in season one held up as well as almost anything in the late-season months during seasons three and four. The whole hour got stronger, relatively speaking, in 2014-15, as 8:30 occupant Cristela was less problematic than The Neighbors (though still cancelled) and Last Man's tiny drops continued. Last Man's spike to 1.6 when former Home Improvement star Patricia Richardson guested was just about on par with the season two premiere as the biggest Friday episode in Plus.

Season five didn't get to the same heights, but continued the tradition of growth in A18-49+, making it one of ABC's strongest Friday occupants on record. It also launched Dr. Ken, which was easily the highest-rated Friday Last Man lead-out yet.

The sixth and final season was another ratings triumph, with an even faster growth rate in Plus than the last two seasons. It included a 1.5 in January, which set a new high for Plus in the Friday run and even beat most of the Plus scores from season one on Tuesday. But Last Man Standing was a show that had always been a late renewal due to tough negotiations with the Fox studio. So despite all that ratings improvement, time finally ran out on Last Man after six seasons.

Friday, June 12, 2015

FINALS UPDATE: Game 4 of the NBA Finals adjusted up to a series high 7.6, a scorching 27% ahead of Game 4 last season. Bones (1.2) and CBS' sitcoms also adjusted up.

On another Thursday dominated by the NBA Finals, Fox's dramas again shone brightest among the scripted originals. Wayward Pines (1.2) ticked back up to tie its high point, while the Bones finale (1.1) was even with last week.

NBC's Aquarius (0.8) mercifully got back a tenth back after last week's collapse, but Hannibal (0.5) made up for it by descending into truly ugly territory.

And the CW opened season three of the now summer drama fixture Beauty and the Beast with the same 0.3 it hit for 20 out of 22 episodes last season. Leading out was an iHeartRadio Pool Party special (0.3), even with last year.

ABC's NBA Finals had a preliminary 6.3 A18-49 from 9:00 to 11:00, which was about 10% better than the same prelim period on Tuesday and last Thursday. Though there was no late-game drama this time, it could adjust up to a series high.

Thursday, June 11, 2015

FINALS UPDATE:Celebrity Wife Swap (1.2) went up to a new season high, and The Briefcase (1.0) also added a tenth to put it up week-to-week. Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals on NBCSN (1.33) dropped a bit from Game 3.

After a huge drop last week, CBS' The Briefcase stayed at its meh 0.9 in week three.

Fox's MasterChef (1.5) was even, but Bullseye (1.0) shed a tenth.

The second Wednesday repeat week for The Middle (1.1) and The Goldbergs (1.1) each picked up noticeably, though they didn't help boost Modern Family (1.2) and Black-ish (1.1). With the Stanley Cup Finals on cable rather than NBC for another night, this was good enough to put ABC in a close second behind Fox.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

FINALS UPDATE: The NBA Finals ended up at 18.77 million viewers and a 7.3 demo, each down just a smidge from Game 2 and still way ahead of the 2014 pace. Hell's Kitchen (1.1) adjusted up to avoid a new low, but iZombie didn't.

The NBA Finals took its first crack at the Tuesday regulars, and it now looks likely it'll be in play again next week. NBC held up pretty well, with America's Got Talent (2.3) down just a tenth and a reasonable 12% behind the episode on this night last year. Its lead-out I Can Do That (1.6) preliminarily gained a tick back after last week's decline (though the 1.8 -> 1.4 half-hour breakdown is pretty ugly).

On Fox, Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader? (0.8) inched up, but the finale of Hell's Kitchen (1.0) dropped to a new low (and miles behind last year's 1.7 finale). And much like The 100 last year, iZombie (0.5) dropped for the last episode of its summer run, though with a 0.5 -> 0.6 breakdown it may be close to adjusting up.

As for the NBA Finals, they hit a series high 13.7 in the household overnights and should be way up year-to-year again in the demo. The two-hour A18-49 prelim (5.8) was a touch better than Thursday's rating.

The NBA Finals Game 2 on Sunday adjusted up to 19.17 million viewers and 7.4 demo rating, up a whooping 23% from Game 2 last season. This was the biggest Game 2 in viewership since 1998, and the biggest Game 2 demo in my 14 years of records.

Also on Sunday, The Tony Awards (1.0) avoided going sub-1 for the first time, and a few of the Fox comedies including Golan the Insatiable (0.5) also went up. Game of Thrones had a very impressive 3.65 for HBO.

On Saturday, the Stanley Cup Finals adjusted up to 1.9, tying Game 1. Friday's What Would You Do? (1.1) and Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.5) adjusted up while The Messengers (0.2) was down.

ABC got overtime once again for Game 2 of the NBA Finals, which averaged a preliminary 6.1 A18-49 rating from 8:00 to 11:00. This was up from a 5.0 prelim average in the same period last year, which later adjusted up to 6.0. This game started an hour earlier so it may not adjust up as much as the Thursday game, but the time zone-adjusted household overnight was very similar to Thursday's Game 1 (which ended up with a 6.9 final).

ABC's dominance left little for everyone else. The Tony Awards on CBS (0.9) preliminarily dipped below 1.0 for what is likely the first time ever. And scripted originals A.D. The Bible Continues (0.7), American Odyssey (0.4) and Golan the Insatiable (0.4) all got crushed.

Friday's winner was the NBC re-air of the film Jurassic Park (1.2), which had pretty great numbers by movie standards the week before Universal's new installment Jurassic World is released in theaters. Meanwhile, What Would You Do? (1.0) came back to earth for ABC, but a very good showing from 20/20 (1.4) made up for it.

Saturday was all about NBC's Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, which
started before primetime but had a prelim 1.7 for the two primetime
hours. I'll update after finals.

Tuesday, June 9, 2015

FINALS UPDATE:American Ninja Warrior (2.1) adjusted up to its highest raw rating in about three years, and a new historical-adjusted high.The Island went down to match last week's 1.1.

On cable, the Stanley Cup Finals had a 1.36, up from a 1.2 for Game 3 on NBCSN last year, but it just barely beat the US opener in the Women's World Cup on Fox Sports 1 (1.26).

It was a rough week two for ABC's The Whispers (1.0), which shed a third of its premiere audience following a barely down The Bachelorette (1.8). It also took a bigger half-hour drop this week (1.1 -> 0.9) than in the prelims last week (1.5 -> 1.4). This number was still about on par with the Mistresses average in the slot last summer, but it's certainly not impossible it could soon be doing even worse.

Fox didn't fare much better as So You Think You Can Dance (1.1) dropped two tenths in week two, putting it down 25%+ from last season's second week.

ABC's losses meant NBC emerged on top with American Ninja Warrior (2.0) flat at last week's great number and The Island (1.2) preliminarily inching back up to tie the premiere rating.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Five years ago, the rise of original ratings for cable series was really something to behold. For many shows, the growth felt endless, and the top cable shows became more and more competitive with the broadcast big guns. Judging some of these series compared to the typical rate of decline on
broadcast seemed unfair to broadcast; cable was a healthier environment
because it was poaching viewers from broadcast. I was never that into the whole broadcast vs. cable narrative, in which people would cherry-pick timeslots where cable successes would outrate broadcast failures. But it was happening a fair amount, and that narrative helped illustrate to the casual follower what a different world it was becoming.

But you don't see that kind of narrative trotted out as much these days. Shows like The Walking Dead and Game of Thrones remain enormous anomalies, but for the shows in the trenches, there is an increasing amount of ugliness that hasn't really gotten reported.

Occasionally, someone in the media will remark on an individual network, that USA's dramas are struggling or that FX's live ratings are going in the tank. But as someone who tracks a fairly large volume of this stuff (if still miles from all of it), I have gotten the sense it's happening to almost everybody. Huge year-to-year declines are all over the cable original map. So before moving forward with commentary on individual cable shows, I wanted to do a more formal look at the bigger picture.