Edinburgh and Glasgow to drive economic growth to UK levels

The strong economic performance of Edinburgh and Glasgow are expected to power Scottish growth so that it matches the UK’s next year.

Analysis by the EY Scottish ITEM Club 2018 Forecast published today predicts output growth for Scotland is predicted to reach 1.4 per cent next year, an increase from the 0.8 per cent expected for 2017 and equal to UK-wide GDP growth.

But when the next five years are taken as a whole, growth rates are expected to diverge again with Scotland on course for an annual average of 1.7 per cent growth compared with 2.0 per cent for the UK as a whole.

Household spending is to be a key driver behind the strong performance for Scotland in 2018 with growth forecast to be 1.1 per cent in real terms, an increase from 0.8 per cent in 2017.

Edinburgh and Glasgow’s dominance as Scotland’s leading centres for growth continues as they begin to stretch further ahead of the other five cities. Both Edinburgh and Glasgow are set to outperform Scotland’s economic growth with a figure of 2.1 per cent a year between 2017 and 2020 while annual employment growth is predicted to be 0.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively, for the same time period. Stirling is the only other Scottish city expected to achieve above average growth.