Here’s the percentage of the White vote won by John Kerry and Barack Obama in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections:

Northeast

New York: 49% (2004), 52% (2008), 49% (2012)

Massachusetts: 59% (2004), 59% (2008), 57% (2008)

Connecticut: 51% (2004), 51% (2004), 51% (2012)

New Hampshire: 50% (2004), 54% (2008), 51% (2012)

New Jersey: 49% (2008), 43% (2012)

Pennsylvania: 45% (2004), 48% (2008), 42% (2012)

Vermont: 65% (2008), 66% (2012)

Maine: 58% (2008), 57% (2012)

Rhode Island: 57% (2008)

Maryland: 56% (2008), 43% (2012)

Delaware: 55% (2008)

Here’s the percentage of the White vote won by John Kerry and Barack Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections:

Weakening South

Florida: 42% (2004), 42% (2008), 37% (2012)

North Carolina: 27% (2004) 35% (2008), 31% (2012)

Virginia: 32% (2004), 39% (2008), 37% (2012)

How does the White vote for Barack Obama compare with the other Southern states?

Solid South

Mississippi: 11% (2008), 11% (2012)

Alabama: 10% (2008), 15% (2012)

Wallace notes

…it turns out that there is a much bigger black and Hispanic electorate in Mississippi than either Florida, Virginia, or North Carolina. The problem in these three states is simply that 11% of Whites in Mississippi voted for Barack Obama whereas 31% to 37% are voting for him in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.

He then turns to the immediately key GOP problem

Let’s do some more fun comparisons of the White vote for Barack Obama:

West Virginia are Vermont are the two whitest states in America. In Vermont, every county voted for Barack Obama. In West Virginia, every county voted for Mitt Romney. California and Texas are two of the most Hispanic states in America. Yet California is a solid blue state and Texas is a solid red state.

But that is not actually the 20012 problem. 20012 has parallels with the 1964 Goldwater debacle: weak performance amongst non-Southern whites, particularly in areas initially peopled by Yankees. This of course was beautifully documented in the Kevin Phillips classic The Emerging Republican Majority.

That these people would not rise up in rage against a candidate whose entire agenda is racial spoils-gathering at their expense of course reflects their deep naivety on matters of ethnicity – a long tradition.

This election can be formulated as a referendum on whether Americans like rich white men. Or it can be formulated as a referendum on racial socialism – do Americans as a whole approve of the use of Federal power to expropriate resources from Whites and transfer them to people of color. There is no middle way.