The team that would play their best cricket in the last three games starting from the quarter finals will win the World Cup 2011. The group of teams that would proceed to the knockout stage of the megapiece event is almost predictable. The test playing nation with the exception of Bangladesh are likely to move forward to the second stage of the tournament. There could a few hiccups here and there. Out of these eight teams, four of them are stronger than the other four, and out of these four, whoever will play their best cricket during the knockout stage of the World Cup will win the tournament.
India, Pakistan, Australia, and South Africa are the strongest teams in the tournament and are most likely to make it to the Final four with a scope for an upset or two. Apart from the strength of the teams, decisions at the toss will also play crucial role.
India is the top contender to win the World Cup because of heavyweight batting line up and vast spin bowling resources. Spin bowling is likely to play crucial role in this World Cup. Fast bowling will be ineffective on the subcontinent pitches unless the batsmen make mistakes. India has an edge over other teams because of many part time spinners in their ranks. They have a good spinner in Harbhajan and more potent part time spinners in Sehwag, Yusuf, Yuvraj, and Sachin. Raina can also bowl if he gets to play. India will have to bowl their fast bowlers in small spells. They must use all their spinners to bowl most of the overs. Sehwag will be the most effective of all the spin bowlers. Playing in familiar subcontinental conditions and Indian conditions will favor India great deal. They will be boosted by the crows support as well. But that could be a double sword edge. The crowd expectation could lead to extra pressure on the Indian batsmen. Playing before the home crowd could bring additional and undue pressure on the Indian team, but otherwise India is hot favorite to win the World Cup.
Pakistan is another hot favorite to win the World Cup. They have a mix of fighters and aggressors in their batting line up. Yunis Khan and Misbah can play the role of the anchor to perfection. The likes of Ahmad Shahzad, Kamran Akram, Umar Akmal, Shahid Afridi, and Abdul Razzak can win the match singlehandedly with their aggressive batting. What is more they have capable hitters down the order in Wahab Riaz, Sohail Tanvir, and Umar Gul. They have good spin bowling attack with Saeed Ajmal, Shahid Afridi, and Mohammad Hafeez. Abdul Razzak can be decisive with his medium pacers. The only thing that bothers me about Pakistan is effectiveness of Shoib Akhtar for Pakistan. I wonder if he will be an asset for Pakistan or liability. I do not think Shoib Akhtar will run through the batting line ups on subcontinent wickets and if he is wayward, he will go for a lot of runs. I think Pakistan would be better off Shoib Akhtar. Remember Shoib Akhtar bowling wayward and being hit for sixes in 2003 World Cup against India, which gave momentum to the Indian innings. One advantage Pakistan has over India is that they are playing in familiar Indian and subcontinent condition without playing in front of their home crowd. That is they have the advantage of playing friendly home condition without the expectations of the home crowd.
This Australian team is fully capable of winning the fourth straight title for Australia. One would do well to remember that half-strength Australian defeated India comprehensively in a one day series a couple of seasons back. The major concern for the Australian team would be the form of Ricky Ponting. Ricky Ponting is likely going to be a liability for Australia and so may be Tendulkar for India and Shoib Akhtar for Pakistan. The key player for Australia would be Shane Watson. Shane Watson can play the central role in Australia's campaign for the World Cup title. Ferguson seems to be a good prospect in the middle order. They do not have a World class spinner. Michael clarke could be used as part-time spinners, but can he do something like Indian part-timers like Sehwag and Yuvraj or Pakistan part-timers like Mohammad Hafeez remains to be seen.
South Africa is another well balanced team with dependable batting line up, which has a mix of aggressors and anchors. If Amla can display his form from the last year and some of the South African batsmen come good South Africa will not be too far from clinching their first World Cup title. Smith and Amla can provide a great start at the top. Amla can bat through the innings and Kallis can play the role of anchor to perfection. AB De Villiers and Duminy are among the best batsmen in the middle order. Duminy could a great finisher for South Africa. South Africa also have a good spinner in Botha and surprise package in Imran Tahir.
These four teams, India, Pakistan, Australia, and South Africa are likely to make it to the Semi-Finals. There could be an exception. But only one of these four teams from India, Pakistan, Australia, and South Africa are capable of winning all the three matches in a row starting from the quarter final to the final. Hence the favorites teams to lift the World Cup in 2011 are as follows.1. India or Pakistan
2. South Africa
3. Australia