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1 Toluca Should be the Easy Favorite Toluca averages an impressive 1.71 goals and only 1.07 goals conceded per 90 minutes of play. San Luis averages 1.21 goals and 1.32 conceded per 90 minutes. Toluca s attack and most of its goals are based on individual attackers running at defenders. When a Toluca players puts his head down and heads directly at defense, watch out! Best of Both Worlds Palacios had the highest possession on the field (80% of his touches continue to a teammate) while playing over half of his successful passes to the front line (25 passes to forwards). For most players, long balls normally equate to low possession, but not with Palacios. He creates the chances and has the best possession of any player on the field. Impressive! But What Happened? During the last match, San Luis took 16 shots from inside Toluca s penalty area. Toluca took only 6 shots from inside San Luis s penalty area and didn t manage a single shot on goal during the match. San Luis Defends Deep and Penetrates Successfully San Luis defends deep making long runs from midfield and dancing into the box far more difficult. 77% of their possessions began in their own half compared to 65% for Toluca, but...san Luis took 16 shots from inside Toluca's penalty area. Toluca took 6 and didn't put a shot on goal. Corner Kicks One Man Makes the Difference Israel Lopez took 5 corner kicks, did not create a shot. Braulio Luna took corner kicks and did not create a shot. Tressor took 2 corner kicks...the first became an assist on the goal, the second taken minutes later forced a nearly impossible goal line save. Conclusion: Tressor should be taking all the corners! Workaholic Antonio Zinha is the most active player in the league (#1) averaging 82.3 touches on the ball per 90 minutes of play this season. Zinha primarily prefers combining with Carlos Esquivel. He makes and receives more passes with Esquivel than all of the other attackers combined. At times they tend to play on top of each other occupying the same space and role. Good Possession or Bad? Toluca has the second highest seasonal possession in the league (Pachuca was #1). Toluca s players retain possession of the ball 72.1% of the time they touch it. This normally comes from a slower build-up. San Luis is 13 th in the league at 65%. But, and this appeared critical in the opening match, Toluca is 13 th in the league in its ability to prevent its opponents from maintaining possession. Its opponents are able to retain the ball 67% of the time they touch it (Queretaro was worst at 72%). This indicates relatively poor defensive pressure giving time and space for Palacios to pick and place attackers in through Toluca s defense. Palacios is the Key for San Luis Palacios plays the ball directly to the forwards launching almost every attack (25 of his 6 touches in the last match were direct to forwards). He can land the ball on the back of a mosquito on a blade of grass 60 yards away (see separate video). Most of San Luis s shot development played through Palacios (8 possession leading to a shot). Guilty as Charged San Luis (32) is second only to Puebla (365) in fouls committed this season. Combine this with Toluca s league leading 6 penalty kicks this season, and its ability to run at defenders and you open at least one path to find the back of San Luis s net.

5 Positional Analysis Touches highlights critical players with Zinha and Palacios leading. Defensively Torres is very active for San Luis. Passing Channels highlights the movement of the ball to Palacios with passes distributed almost equally from there to all of the forwards. For Toluca, everything plays through Zinha. Toluca shows too little of its shooting coming from the forwards. San Luis Shot Development again highlights Palacios. Note that is not shooting but plays a critical role in the development of 7 shots. Possession Analysis

6 Almost identical possession characteristics between the two teams. Note the difference in goalkeeper s. Toluca s goalkeeper loses the ball consistently whereas San Luis develops from the pass. Note also the weakness in possession of Novaretti. Tends to lose the ball about half the time he has it largely because he is rarely passed the ball. Almost all of his touches involve winning the ball defensively.

7 Regional Analysis Both teams favor attacking through the right side and both development most of their shots through the right side. San Luis was much more effective getting shots inside the opponent s penalty area. San Luis consistently starts its possessions (Balls Won) in its own half (77% of the time) indicating low pressure in the opponent s half. This generally indicates a more crowded defensive half for the opponent to attack through making it more difficult to penetrate the box. Timeline of Key Events

8 Note Toluca s lack of shooting (green bars) during the beginning and end of each half. They are most effective between minutes 20 and 35 of the half.

10 Nestor Calderon Plays very wide with not a single touch inside the penalty area. Provided one pass leading to a shot. Participates in the development but rarely takes on defenders (seen in the rare loss of the ball on the dribble).

11 Antonio Zinha Clearly the critical player. Everything plays through Zinha. Note that he favors drifting wide to the right side to find space. Most passes go to and from Esquivel. Rarely finds the other two forwards. Compare to Palacios who hits all 3 forwards equally creating a more varied attack. Notice that for the last 25 minutes of the second half, Zinha did not win a single ball (triangles under the timeline). His effort became entirely offensive as the game neared the end.

12 Alfredo stays central and receives most of his touches from Palacios. Found many chances to shoot but became fairly inactive at the end of the second half (see timeline). Large gaps in touches can indicate fitness issues or simply the limited role of San Luis s attack as Toluca attempts to score.

13 Braulio Luna Luna finds many opportunities to shoot. Luna alone took almost as many shots inside the penalty area (5) as the entire Toluca team (6). He represents a consistent threat, but rarely plays a defensive role (note only balls won the entire game), leaving some free space for Toluca to attack through.

14 Jesus Palacios Palacios is the critical player for San Luis. You can see his distribution to the forwards playing 25 passes to the front line. Torres looks for Palacios consistently. Palacios is also the #1 possession player on the field. This combination of retaining possession with penetrating to the forwards is rare and was the critical element in the opening match.

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