World Cup 2018: Day Eight Betting Preview

Australia play Denmark, France take on Peru and Messi, Aguero and co front up against Croatia.

The Socceroos have a huge ask getting three points against DenmarkPhoto: Getty Images

Australia’s World Cup dreams could be shattered if the Soccceroos don’t get all three points against Denmark on Thursday night.

A loss would put Australia in a near impossible position to qualify for the second round and they would be eliminated should France beat Peru later in the day.

A draw means they would likely need to rely on a big win against Peru in the final match to get through on goal difference. A win puts them level with Denmark, who play France in the final game.

But even two wins won’t be a cast-iron guarantee of progression.

Apart from those two Group C matches, Argentina and Croatia face off in a crucial Group D match. A loss would ensure Argentina do not finish top of the group and they would be in danger of missing qualification for the second round for the first time since 2002.

Matches

Denmark v Australia, Samara Stadium, Thursday June 21, 10pm AEDT

France v Peru, Ekaterinburg Arena, Friday June 22, 1am AEDT

Argentina v Croatia, Nikhny Nogorod Stadium, Friday June 22, 4am AEDT

The Market

Australian punters are confident that the Socceroos can get the three points here and they have been backed from $5 into a best price of $4.60. As a result, Denmark have drifted markedly from $1.64 out to as long as $1.94.

It’s a similar story in the France v Peru game, where France were $1.33 for this pre-tournament, but you can now get as long as $1.57 about Les Bleus. After $9 was available about Peru, the South Americans are into a longest quote of $7.

Argentina’s performance in their opener against Iceland hasn’t inspired punters in their match against Croatia. After opening firmly in the red, the 2014 runners-up are now $2.05, with Croatia, who defeated Nigeria 2-0 in their opener, in from $4.50 to $4.10.

The Simulator* and Alternative Odds

Denmark v Australia

The Simulator affords Australia little hope of winning this match. In 20 matches played on The Simulator, Australia drew one and won one, with the other 18 going in the favour of the Danes. That equates to modelled odds of $1.21 for Denmark and $8 for both the draw and the Australian win. For the second straight game, Pione Sisto has come up as the most likely first scorer in this match. He is $10 with the bookies to net first in this match.

The Alternative Odds markets are fairly close to the actual market, with Denmark warm favourites on previous World Cup performances, current World Cup rankings and 2018 form. Their squad strength alone would see them as $1.75 favourites here.

France v Peru

France completely dominated The Simulator matches, winning 19 and drawing one. On that basis, and with some other modelling thrown in to give Peru actual odds, they should be $1.15 as opposed to their current $1.57. Antoine Griezmann won the penalty against Australia and is clear favourite to be first goalscorer according to The Simulator, having scored 23 goals in 20 matches.

In contrast, the Alternative Odds models give Peru a much better chance than the bookies do. The South Americans should be favourites according to 2018 form, while France are narrow favourites on world rankings and previous World Cup performances.

Argentina v Croatia

The Simulator turned up some interesting things in this match. In 20 contests, the two teams won nine times apiece with just two draws. That would indicate a closer game than the bookies are predicting. The goals were shared around in those 20 matches, with Croatia’s Ivan Perisic scoring seven goals, which would see him priced at $7 to be the first goalscorer as opposed to his current $12.

The Alternative Odds are more confident in a Croatia victory than the bookies, with the Europeans slight favourites on 2018 form and Argentina holding the edge in every other category.

Best Bet of the Day

Denmark should get the job done against the Aussies, as much as it hurts to say so. If you multi up the Danes with a total of under 2.5 goals, bet365 will give you $3.60. That looks money for jam.

Best Value Bet of the Day

Fancy Griezmann to get another goal in this match. He was flat in the opener, but can bounce back here, especially if France can sort out their delivery from the midfield. At $5 to be first goalscorer, he’s definitely worth a play.

*What is The SimulatorWe have simulated every World Cup game 20 times via a well-known World Cup console game. We have recorded the results and the scorers of each of those games to come up with a predictive model for each match.

The ‘Simulator Odds’ are the probability of each result according to the results across those 20 games.

The ‘Simulator Score Predictor’ displays the average scores recorded for each team across those 20 games

The ‘Most Likely Score’ calculates the most probable scoreline for the match, and determines the probable odds on this happening, comparing it to the current market

The ‘predicted first goalscorer’ takes the data from the 20 simulations and determines which player is most likely to score first and the projected odds of that occurring.