Jon Birger | Official Author Sitehttp://jonbirger.com
Mon, 08 May 2017 15:40:48 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.3.1Prof. Adshade, Invite Me to British Columbia and We Can Debate!http://jonbirger.com/prof-adshade-invite-me-to-british-columbia-and-we-can-debate/
http://jonbirger.com/prof-adshade-invite-me-to-british-columbia-and-we-can-debate/#commentsMon, 08 May 2017 01:04:28 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=403When DATE-ONOMICS readers ask me to recommend other smart books on dating, Dollars & Sex by Marina Adshade — a professor of economics at University of British Columbia — is always high on my list. Thus I was flabbergasted when one of my readers sent me this YouTube clip of Prof. Adshade criticizing my argument in DATE-ONOMICS that the oversupply of college-grad women is affecting the post-college dating market. After all, Adshade makes a very similar argument — albeit a racially-charged one — in Dollars & Sex. Adshade claims that African American teenagers are especially promiscuous due to the imbalanced sex ratios among African American high school students. Writes Adshade: “When we consider the observation that the recent high school completion rates are between 7 and 12 percentage points lower than for black women, all the evidence suggests that black teenage women are competing with each other and with women of other races for far fewer men on the high school market.”

Professor Adshade, please have your university lecture board invite me to Vancouver, and I’d be happy to debate your belief that the behavior of African American teenagers is much affected by lopsided sex ratios — yet the behavior mostly-white college graduates is not!

]]>http://jonbirger.com/prof-adshade-invite-me-to-british-columbia-and-we-can-debate/feed/0Date-Onomics vs. Religion News Servicehttp://jonbirger.com/date-onomics-vs-religion-news-service/
http://jonbirger.com/date-onomics-vs-religion-news-service/#commentsWed, 22 Mar 2017 23:17:43 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=384Last week, Religion News Service blogger Jana Riess published a column attacking Date-Onomics — specifically taking aim at the chapter in which I explore the insidious ways lopsided sex ratios affect Utah’s Mormon community. Due to high rates of apostasy among Utah’s Mormon men, there are now three Mormon women in Utah for every two Mormon men. Riess took umbrage with my argument that these lopsided sex ratios have prompted a disproportionate number of Utah Mormon women to go under the knife (or the needle) in order to improve their chances with single Mormon men.

Even more troubling than the research and the data are the first-person accounts. Dr. Joylin Namie, a professor at Utah Valley University, made a documentary about the phenomenon — titled “Drinking Gold: Normalization of Cosmetic Surgery Among Latter-day Saint Women” — that sounds heartbreaking. Dr. Kimball Crofts, a Salt Lake City plastic surgeon, told me that he has women as young as 20 coming to him for Botox treatments. “There are so many attractive women here,” Crofts said, “the guys get choosy.”

Riess doesn’t believe any of this. She accused me of relying on “anecdotal” and “circumstantial” evidence in order to make the case that a shortage of Mormon men in Utah has lead to above-average demand for cosmetic surgery. Her argument hinges on a private survey she said she conducted. Riess said she surveyed 1,155 Mormons nationwide, asked them whether they’d had plastic surgery and found that Mormon women in Utah “self-reported” having plastic surgery at a lower, not higher, rate than other women: 5.6% of Utah Mormon women have gone under the knife, according to Riess, vs. 7% of all women nationwide.

Before I address the obvious problem of relying on self-reported data when it comes to cosmetic surgery, I want to dig deeper into Riess’s numbers. Unfortunately, she does not disclose the distribution by sex and age within her survey sample, but she does say that the sample is “nationally representative.” If that’s true, less than a third of the Mormons whom Riess surveyed live in the state of Utah. And if her Utah sample accurately reflects the state’s demographics, Riess’s total female sample for Utah would consist of only 180 women. Let’s do the math: 5.6% of 180 is 10. That’s right — Riess’s entire argument is likely based on just 10 Utah Mormon women who admitted to her that they’d had cosmetic surgery.

Of course, the bigger problem is that self-reporting for cosmetic surgery is notoriously unreliable. According to Transform, Britain’s largest cosmetic surgery group, 71% of women hide Botox treatments from friends and family, while 34% hide liposuction. If so many women are not honest with their own friends and family, does Riess really think they’ll answer truthfully when a complete stranger calls them up, inquires if they’re Mormon, and then poses personal questions about breast augmentations and tummy tucks? Particularly when the Mormon faith explicitly frowns upon cosmetic surgery?

Even more curious than her methodology is Riess’s attempt to dismiss all the data showing high rates of plastic surgeons per capita in Utah and Salt Lake City. Riess doesn’t even bother arguing that the numbers are wrong. Instead, she relies on one newspaper article in which one Salt Lake City doctor reports that 20% of his patients hail from out of state. This lone assertion becomes the basis for Riess’s contention that Salt Lake City’s unusually high number of cosmetic surgeons per capita has nothing to do with local demand — but is rather a function of out-of-state patients flooding the offices of Salt Lake City plastic surgeons.

Needless to say, one doctor makes for a very small sample size. (You might even call it anecdotal!) But the real question is this: Does Riess have any proof that the number of out-of-state patients in Salt Lake City is disproportionately large relative to other cities? I suspect not. Had she interviewed cosmetic surgeons in cities such as New York, Chicago, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Miami, she would have discovered that medical tourism is a burgeoning business for cosmetic surgeons everywhere — not just in Salt Lake City. The websites of many top cosmetic surgeons offer tips, travel advice or even discounts to out-of-state or out-of-country patients. The news article that Riess cherry-picked happened to be about a doctor in Utah, but similar stories could have been found all across the country. Consider this quote from Arizona’s East Valley Tribune which profiles Scottsdale cosmetic surgeon Dr. Todd Malan: “About 80 percent of Malan’s patients come from out of state. He even reserves Fridays for patients from out of state or country, who travel from as far away as Saudi Arabia.”

Religion and cosmetic surgery are touchy subjects on their own. Combine them, and some people will get defensive. I understand that. I’m sympathetic. Nobody likes it when their own religion gets singled out. I just wish Jana Riess were more interested in solving the problem—in addressing the body image problems that drive young Mormon women to eating disorders and unneeded plastic surgery—than simply attacking the messenger.

The book reviewer for The Yakima (Wash.) Herald concluded that whereas Aziz Ansari’s Modern Romance “fell rather flat,” DATE-ONOMICS is “an intriguing look at how gender ratios and socio-economic factors can play a role in our interpersonal relationships.” My favorite line: “As far as statistically inclined books go, I consider DATE-ONOMICS to be several standard deviations above the mean.”

The Guardian newspaper in London interviewed me for a three-page write-up on DATE-ONOMICS. It’s a fun story with fantastic art. And given the huge response from readers — 2,200 comments in one day! — I’m starting to wonder whether “The Dating Gap” should have been my book title. Oh well.

“Demographics show that there are, in fact, many more college- educated women than men. Author Jon Birger explains the historical reasons for this discrepancy, and the resulting (rather dismaying) dating implications. For example, where there are more women than men (e.g., NYC and many college campuses) relationships tend to be much more casual, fluid, and sexualized. Most frighteningly, micro-populations with this dynamic tend to have higher rates of sexual violence. A dearth of women tends to lead to longer, more stable relationships, higher marriage rates, and increased achievement by the men seeking to woo them. Perhaps intuitively not surprising, still this is fascinating stuff, backed by solid studies and statistics. The author does offer some recommendations for solving the dilemma: professional women might have better luck finding a soul mate at male-dominated STEM schools, or by dating outside their educational or occupational class (‘mixed-collar’ relationships). The picture painted for white-collar heterosexual men (lots of sex, little commitment) is either rosy, or disgusting, depending on your point of view. The writing is focused and brisk, easy and entertaining as befits a popular psychology book. Romance may not be dead, but it doesn’t hurt to play the numbers.”

]]>http://jonbirger.com/san-francisco-book-review-on-date-onomics-five-stars/feed/0The LDS Matchmaker Has a Beef with Date-Onomicshttp://jonbirger.com/lds-matchmaker-has-a-beef-with-date-onomics/
http://jonbirger.com/lds-matchmaker-has-a-beef-with-date-onomics/#commentsThu, 08 Oct 2015 14:14:23 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=323Two years ago, I reached out to Amy Stevens Seal, a Mormon dating coach and founder of The LDS Matchmaker, to see if she would agree to be interviewed about the gender imbalance in Mormon dating. According to a Trinity College study, above-average apostasy rates among Mormon men have left the LDS church with a 3:2 ratio of marriage-age women to men within the state of Utah. The Salt Lake Tribune reported that at one Salt Lake City singles ward (singles wards are churches for LDS singles), the membership rolls had 429 women versus only 264 men. Mormon blogs are filled with pained discussions about the unfair dating numbers. And a marriage survey published by LDS-oriented Meridian Magazine included this comment: “I think that there will be a fast growing number of unmarried Mormon women, due to the huge imbalanced gender ratio. Most YSA wards are 2:1 or even 3:1 women.”

Seal declined to speak with me—her prerogative, of course—but her publicist did connect me with Tristen Ure Hunt, another Mormon matchmaker. Hunt was forthcoming, honest and eloquent when discussing the lopsided gender ratios and how they were wreaking havoc in the Mormon dating world.

Now, two years later, Seal is suddenly eager to talk about Mormon gender ratios herself—and about DATE-ONOMICS. In her blog on the LDS Matchmaker website, Seal writes—incorrectly—that my career “revolves around writing books that will sell.” A smidgen of research on her part would have revealed that DATE-ONOMICS is my first book and that my actual career revolves writing about the stock market, real estate, and energy for Fortune and other magazines. Then again, as Seal herself points out, some experts can’t help but gin up false information in order to bolster their arguments.

Seal goes on to imply that my interest in this topic was “negatively slanted towards the [LDS] Church.” She bemoaned that that I found “other sources willing to validate his data and ‘prove’ his points.” Here’s the rub. For all of Seal’s outrage, she failed to muster a single statistic contradicting the gender-ratio data in the book. In fact, she conceded the demographic reality: “At social events and wards for LDS singles, the gender ratio is noticed and lamented by many women seeking to find an eternal companion.” Indeed, Seal doesn’t deny the gender-ratio-related challenges faced by single Mormon women—she just thinks women can overcome them (if they hire the right matchmaker, presumably). “Since when did anything good come with an ‘even’ playing field?” Seal asks. “Honestly, what worthy goal or pursuit in life has come easy?”

Look, I may be a statistics geek, but I can still embrace serendipity and romance and the possibility of fate intervening and bringing two people together against tough odds. Nevertheless, it seems self-serving for Seal dismiss those tough odds as irrelevant. Giving people hope is appropriate. But false hope? That strikes me as cruel.

]]>http://jonbirger.com/lds-matchmaker-has-a-beef-with-date-onomics/feed/0Another NPR interview and more news coverage of DATE-ONOMICShttp://jonbirger.com/another-npr-interview-and-more-stuff-on-date-onomics/
http://jonbirger.com/another-npr-interview-and-more-stuff-on-date-onomics/#commentsSat, 03 Oct 2015 02:27:37 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=314On September 30, I was a guest on NPR’s Think, a talk show produced by NPR affiliate KERA in Dallas. Host Krys Boyd and I had a great conversation—though I wasn’t exactly what to tell the young man who called in wanting advice on how to find a gamer girlfriend.

]]>http://jonbirger.com/another-npr-interview-and-more-stuff-on-date-onomics/feed/0What are the best dating cities for women age 40-49?http://jonbirger.com/what-are-the-best-dating-cities-for-women-age-40-49/
http://jonbirger.com/what-are-the-best-dating-cities-for-women-age-40-49/#commentsMon, 28 Sep 2015 01:19:46 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=297I got an email today from Sharon—a single, 43-year-old, college-educated woman who said she enjoyed DATE-ONOMICS but wanted to register a complaint. Sharon was frustrated that one of the tables in the appendix—the one that ranked U.S. cities and counties by their gender ratios—only included data for people in their 20s and 30s.

Sorry about that, Sharon. Here are the top 15 dating areas for women age 40-49, as ranked by the ratio of single, college-educated men to single, college-educated women in that age bracket.

City, Male:Female Ratio for College Grads 40-49

Des Moines, Iowa 2.3:1

Austin, Texas 1.5:1

San Francisco, Calif. 1.3:1

Denver, Colo. 1.2:1

Pittsburgh, Penn. 1.2:1

Cedar Rapids, Iowa 1.2:1

Lake County, Ill. (Chicago suburb) 1.2:1

San Jose, Calif. 1.2:1

Washington, D.C. 1.1:1

Boston, Mass. 1.1:1

San Diego, Calif. 1.1:1

Seattle, Wash. 1.1:1

New York County, NY (Manhattan) 1.1:1

Atlanta, Georgia 1:1

Minneapolis, Minn. 1:1

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http://jonbirger.com/what-are-the-best-dating-cities-for-women-age-40-49/feed/0Vice, Fusion, and BreakThru Radiohttp://jonbirger.com/vice-fusion-and-breakthru-radio/
http://jonbirger.com/vice-fusion-and-breakthru-radio/#commentsSun, 27 Sep 2015 01:39:13 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=293Vice.com’s Jennifer Schaffer published a long Q&A with me about DATE-ONOMICS — “It’s Not Your Imagination, Single Women: There Literally Aren’t Enough Men Out There.” Schaffer’s conclusion: DATE-ONOMICS “is a clever read with a sobering conclusion: There simply aren’t enough college-educated men to go around.”

Fusion’s story on DATE-ONOMICS poses the question of whether college applicants should consider gender ratios when choosing a college. It may sound like an odd question. But how odd is it really given all the attention college guides devote to rating cafeteria food and tailgate parties? Fact is, at most colleges the gender ratio is the dominant feature of campus social life.

]]>http://jonbirger.com/vice-fusion-and-breakthru-radio/feed/0Responding to New York Times and Mic.comhttp://jonbirger.com/responding-to-new-york-times-and-mic-com/
http://jonbirger.com/responding-to-new-york-times-and-mic-com/#commentsFri, 18 Sep 2015 16:07:12 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=288To date, I’ve spent a lot of time in this blog posting links to various columns and interviews that reflect positively on DATE-ONOMICS. Today I’m going to tackle two articles — one a book review, the other a column — that were critical.

The first one is The New York Times book review of DATE-ONOMICS that ran last Sunday. The reviewer, Kristin Dombek, was not convinced by some of the statistics-based arguments that I made to explain declining marriage rates among the college-educated. That, I can live with that. Obviously not everyone will agree with how I interpret every statistic.

What disappointed me was the false way the NYT portrayed DATE-ONOMICS’ core argument. Consider this from the NYT review: ” ‘Date-­Onomics’ is written for people who assume that pairing two by two, male and female, with educated people in or above one’s class, is the endgame, and his book aims to give women the data to win it… That marriage might not always be good for women is not a possibility [Birger] considers.”

Here’s the thing: In DATE-ONOMICS, I state repeatedly that I do not assume every woman is seeking a heterosexual relationship. I also state repeatedly that I do not assume that every heterosexual woman wants to get married or even seeks a monogamous lifestyle. I celebrate the fading-away of “old, cruel taboos” against non-marital sex and women having children out of wedlock. I never endorse heterosexual marriage as a lifestyle choice.

That said, the statistics on marriage are unambiguous: According to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, 87% of college-educated women in their 40s either are currently married (71%) or have been married at some point (16%). So unless The New York Times believes these women got married against their will or by accident, it is clear that a majority of women are indeed interested in marriage. That does not mean heterosexual marriage is a superior lifestyle choice. But it does mean that a majority of college-educated women being interested in marriage is no assumption; it is a statistical reality.

This is why I reject the NYT’s contention that I am being “conservative and panicked” when I describe the shortage of college-educated men as a demographic time bomb. It’s also why, in the book, I endorse the idea of women opening their hearts and minds to non-college-educated men. Given how many pages I devote to endorsing “mixed-collar marriages,” I do not understand how the NYT could claim I’m assuming people should only marry “educated people in or above one’s class.”

I’m not the Love Doctor. I cannot explain why some of the young women quoted in the Mic.com story have been striking out with men. What I can point to—and what the Mic.com writer intentionally ignored—is the data on this subject. You can decide for yourself whether these numbers (all from the American Community Survey) prove my point or not:

In Santa Clara County, among college-educated people age 30 to 39, 78% of women are currently married. That compares to 69% for the U.S. as a whole, 58% for Chicago, 56% for Atlanta, 54% for Los Angeles, 48% in Washington DC, 46% in Boston and 41% for Manhattan.

Additionally, 4% of Santa Clara County women in that same age-and-education cohort are now divorced or separated; nationally it’s 9%.

]]>http://jonbirger.com/responding-to-new-york-times-and-mic-com/feed/0The Brian Lehrer Showhttp://jonbirger.com/the-brian-lehrer-show/
http://jonbirger.com/the-brian-lehrer-show/#commentsFri, 11 Sep 2015 17:29:54 +0000http://jonbirger.com/?p=278Great interview with NYC talk-show host Brian Lehrer on September 9. Par for the course, a few of the callers were more interested in talking about their love lives than the book!