The problems of the Middle East might seem far away but it can have serious effects on the economy of New Zealand and can be seen as a classic model for the future as climate change develops. The start of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Libya was ignited by the sudden increase in the price of wheat when Russia stopped the exporting of wheat because a severe draught destroyed their harvest. The civil war in Syria was caused by a drought that displaced farmers from their land and crowded them into cities looking for work and sustenance. These situations have resulted in civil unrest throughout the region, a huge arsenal of weapons from looted armies, many sectarian armies funded by wealthy oil countries and individuals who support various groups, very often along religious or ethnic lines. This whole region is a big producer of the World’s oil, and unrest there increases uncertainty and forces up the price of oil and this affects us all. It could get a lot worse as the various factions struggle for power. So we have a situation where climate change has caused drought, which forced up food prices causing civil unrest in a region where autocratic governments are not sharing their wealth with the people and there are hugely valuable resources. What does this mean for New Zealand? We rely almost completely on oil for our transport and as we have a light density population we need transport to deliver food and resources. We need cheap oil to deliver our goods and get to work as we have long distances to cover and almost no alternatives. New Zealand has an abundance of renewable energy with hydro, geothermal, wind and solar all available for development. The electricity companies all round the world are on a plateau of turnover as electrical appliances become more efficient and people install solar panels to save money. It would make good economic sense to use part of the four billion a year oil import bill to switch some of our transport to electricity. This would give New Zealand insurance against these oil price shocks and boost our economy by reducing our import bill by using domestic energy. It should be remembered that oil is a diminishing resource with a volatile price and climate change will bring civil unrest by disrupting food supplies around the world.