Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Fantasy Errata

-- I had Mark Reynolds in my "big money" league, and dropped him so I could slot Curt Schilling and Mark Prior into my DL slots. He wasn't the player on my roster who I thought would have the least value, but he was the player I thought most likely to slip through waivers. That small at-bat number hid his power potential. Well, the manager with the lowest waiver position snatched him up. Considering that my first four draft picks (Fielder, Crawford, Atkins, and Dunn) have combined for zero home runs, I'm sorely regretting that decision.

-- The Phillies just didn't want to pitch Lidge on three days rest; don't be in a hurry to go grab Tom Gordon. As if you were. Rollins twinged his ankle in the game, but sounds like he'll be back in a game or two. Utley was "hit" by three pitches, but in fact only one of them made solid contact. Still, he tied a Major League record. Congrats. It always amazes me in close ball games that managers consistently hand the ball to scrub middle relievers (i.e., Scott Schoenweis). I mean, c'mon. It may only be the sixth or seventh inning, but you want some heat facing the heart of that lineup.

-- I should rename a few of my teams "Corey Patterson," because he's basically carrying me at this point. Whether they go out by one inch or 100 feet, they still count the same. Gagne's fastball now sits in the low 90s with no movement, but that's not nearly as scary as his suddenly atrocious curveball. He's basically a one-254pitch pitcher, and his control isn't good enough to get away with that. I didn't realize he was making ten million a year. These general managers should sit in on an experienced fantasy league's auction sometime, just so they can learn how experts value players.

-- Matsuzaka is red hot. He can't continue this pace, but if you can trade him to a Red Sox fan along with Johnny Cueto for Johan Santana or Jake Peavy, do it. The Detroit Tigers are going to score 60 runs in two games any moment now. Bank on it.

-- Phillips Hughes' three runs in three innings was bad enough. But 10 base runners? Oh, man. He's plummeting from third/fourth starter to waiver-wire fodder with one more start like that.

-- Manny Corpas has now saved two straight games after a rocky (hee hee) beginning. Almost as importantly, he struck two people out today. It's not as though Fuentes sucks, so keep him if you got him, but a switch does not look imminent.

-- A.J. Burnett was one sleeper I missed out on. Maybe not such a bad thing. Twelve base runners in 4 2/3 innings, with six earned runs. Starts like that can take weeks to cycle through your system. To top it off, only one K? If someone drops him in your league, grab him and stash for later, but I wouldn't start him next time out.

-- The Arizona/Dodgers game was full of awful pitching, but Billingsley and Tony Pena are the only two likely owned by anyone. Considering what Hughes and Burnett did, it takes a lot to stand out, but Billingsley's four earned runs and eight base runners in two innings does indeed. Tony Pena didn't help his chances of taking over for Brandon Lyon (Chad Qualls, next in line?).

-- Ryan Rowland-Smith on your fantasy radar? Me neither. Well, he picked up the save for Seattle. He's a lefty, but he did get five outs and strike out two in the process. When a pen looks as horrible as Seattle, a closer can come from anywhere. If you're trolling for saves and have room, why not? After reading up on Costochondritis, I'm not so sure Putz is back before May.

-- God, it's hard to recommend Jake Westbrook. Really hard. He's always been so ... middling. He's like the perfect fourth starter on a good team or third starter on a bad team. Maybe he puts it all together: he's only 30. He's never going to be a K-monger, but he needs to be owned in all AL-only leagues and very deep mixed leagues now. One more start like that, he should be owned everywhere.

-- Justin Speier blew the save in dramatic fashion with a homer to Hafner. So much for the Speier-over-Shields theory. Fuck.

-- Brian Wilson blew his first save after a shaky last outing and must have his owners nervous. I wouldn't panic yet. He's the closer of the future, and SF is going to give him every opportunity to succeed. It's not like they're brimming with young talent. Heath Bell intentionally walked Fred Lewis to pitch to Brian "I hit below the Mendoza Line last year in Single-A" Bocock. He struck out. Could that matchup have gone any other way? Bengie Molina hit two home runs in one game, and (I think) has now accounted for all but one home run hit by a San Francisco Giant. Poor Tim Lincecum.

-- Randy Johnson struck out a bunch in his last warm-up start at Triple A. He'll be taking the mound next Monday on the road against ... the San Francisco Giants! Normally I'd say be cautious, but go ahead and toss the dice.

I also have 6 closers, but our IP max is 1750. (8 team, 5x5 roto, with OBP)

As you can see there is a lot of injury risk with my rotation, but not much performance risk. I need to get innings from all these guys when they are healthy. So, I wasn't planning on sitting any of these guys- ever. bad idea?

Is there really a reason to think that Burnett will get rocked in his next start?