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Monday, May 11, 2009

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK, 11 MAY

Today, if Nifty trades above 3660 then it could test 3700 and above this level, it could test 3750.

Instead, if it sustains below 3660, then it could test 3600 and below this level, it could test 3550.

Nifty intraday Trading Strategy

For intraday, the crucial level is 3660. Trade short below this level and trade long above this level.

Nifty Positional Trading Strategy

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 3600 for a target of 3300 with a stop at 3600 and trade long above 3600 for a target of 3700 with a stop at 3600.

Short term Technical View of Nifty

The rally from the low of 2545 seems to corrective and it is likely to top out around 3600 and in the downside it is likely to test 2900 initially in coming trading sessions.

The maximum Nifty could go in the upside for the short term is 3600.

Medium term outlook of Nifty dated on 17 April 2009

The medium term outlook of Nifty would remain bearish if it fails to sustain above 3600. Nifty is likely to bottom out in the medium term at 2000-2200 levels in coming months and if it fails to sustain above this level, then it is likely to decline below 2000 levels.

Long term outlook of Nifty dated on 13 October 2008

The long term outlook of Nifty is looking bearish and it seems that Nifty is likely to bottom out in 6 months to 1 year if the bottom forms around 2000. If the level 2000 is not held, then Nifty is likely to take more than 1 year to bottom out.

Short term trading calls of Stocks for spot market

Reliance (spot)

The level 1900 is crucial for short term. If it sustains above 1900, then it is likely to rally towards 2000.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 1900 in coming trading sessions, then it is likely to turn weak and it could decline towards 1700 initially.

Trading Strategy for Reliance

For intraday, the crucial level is 1900. Trade long above these levels and trade short below these levels.

Positional traders can initiate longs if it moves above 1900 for a target of 2000. Initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1900 for a target of 1700.

SBI (spot)

The crucial level for the short term for this scrip is 1350. If it fails to sustain above 1350, then it is likely to turn bearish and in the down side it could test 1250 in coming trading sessions.

Instead, if it sustains above 1350, then the short term trend would turn bullish and in the upper side it is likely to move towards 1420.

Trading Strategy for SBI

For Intraday, the crucial level is 1350. Trade long above this level and trade short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 1350 for a target of 1250. And initiate longs if it sustains above 1350 for a target of 1420.

Ongc (spot)

The level 880 is crucial in the short term. If the scrip trades above this level, the short term would turn bullish and in the upper side it could test 930.

If it fails to sustain above 880, then the trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 750 initially.

Trading Strategy for Ongc

For intraday, the crucial level is 880. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if it fails to sustain above 880 for a target of 750. Initiate longs if it sustains above 880 for a target of 930.

Icici Bank (spot)

The level 550 is crucial for this scrip in the short term. If it sustains above this level, then it is likely to see a rally from these levels towards 600.

Instead, if it fails to sustain above 550, the short term trend would turn bearish and in the downside it is likely to decline towards 470 initially.

Trading Strategy for Icici Bank

For intraday, the crucial level is 550. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate shorts if the scrip fails to sustain above 550 for a target of 470. Initiate longs if it sustains above 550 for a target of 600.

Infosys (spot)

The crucial level for the scrip in the short term is 1550. The trend would remain bearish for this scrip if it sustains below 1550 and in the down side, it could test 1400 initially.

If the scrip sustains above 1550, then the scrip is likely to turn bullish in the short term and in the upper side it could rally towards 1650.

Trading Strategy for Infosys

For intraday, the crucial level is 1550. Trade long above this level and be short below this level.

Positional traders can initiate longs if the scrip sustains above 1550 in the upside for a target of 1650. Short if it fails to sustain above 1550 for a target of 1400.

About Me

I am a Mathematics Graduate, having 22 years of stock market experience. I was attracted to stockmarket by the media coverage of the 1992 Harshad Mehta's stock market scam. At that time, I was exposed to Technical analysis by the weekly stock market technical analysis Magazine ' Capital Market Technicals' and got the interest towards Technical Analysis. Since then, I have been learning, analyzing and trading the Stock Market. Now, I am working as a Freelance Technical Analyst and I have contributed to India's leading finance portals like valuenotes.com, walletwatch.com, and ways2gain.com before writing in this blog. Initially, I followed Robert prechter’s way of Classic Elliott wave theory and then Glenn Neely’s Neowave and then, finally, settled with my own system, with which I am comfortable now.My analysis is mostly based on the structure rather than any derived indicators, as I believe that only price will really reveal the real picture of the Market. In this Blog I would like to cover Indian Stock Markets, International Indices and Commodities.

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Disclaimer

Readers must be advised that while the information herein is expressed in good faith, its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is always the risk of loss while trading for which the Author is not responsible. The views expressed in the newsletter are just an analysis based on Technical analysis and it should not be construed as an offer for buy or sell. Anyone trading based on the recommendations are doing so at their own risk and the Author is not responsible for any financial loss arising out of it.