2011 Challenge Predictions

Hey all:

Since all sectional events are complete, it is time for the Challenge predictions.

As everyone will probably agree, at nationals, Patrick and Tessa/Scott are basically a guarantee to win it all. Pairs will be interesting with MT/M amd D/R fighting it out. Ladies is wide open with Cynthia having a disappointing GP season.

So I have compiled a list as to who has qualified for Challenge in the Senior groups and have also listed who has byes to Nationals.

Assuming Sarah Arnold / Justin Trojek (WO) are actually done skating together, that would mean 17 teams at Challenge. There are 15 spots to Nationals, for which 5 teams have a bye. That leaves 10 spots to Nationals, and 2 teams will be left behind at Challenge.

1. Rogozine has a bye to nationals ( senior GP assignment ). Not even on your list.

2. You forgot Samuel Morais. He could and did skip the Quebec sectionals due to his Nebelhorn assignment. But he must compete at the challenge.

3. I am sure you can add Ronald Lam ( BC ) to the list. There are 6 senior BC men ( including the late withdrawal Sandhu ) . Since Nam and Firus had sectional byes due to JGP assignments, there were only 4 non-byed entries ( including Lam who did not compete at sectionals). When there are 4 or less non-byed entries in a sectional competition ( 8 in Quebec ) the competitors can choose to skip the sectional.

Ladies:

Najarro must compete at the challenge. She did not medal at the last nationals, have a senior GP assignment or make the JGPF. Najarro could use her JGP assignment to skip sectionals ( even though she did choose to compete there). But JGP assignments alone do not allow you to skip the challenge.

2. Natasha Purich / Raymond Shultz - AB and Brittany Jones / Kurtis Gaskell - WO both have byes to nationals as they both have senior GP assignments. Both likely to compete at challenge however.

3. Taylor STEELE / Robert SCHULTZ and Dube/Wolfe aren't listed and both had a senior GP assignment this year. So both teams too have a bye straight to nationals. There will be a draw as to skate order between these 2 teams and Purich/Schultz as to skate order of the SP at nationals since none of these teams competed senior last year but all have byes to nationals.

Perhaps I am misinformed, but doesn't a Grand Prix Event only get you a bye past sectionals? Wouldn't you have to make the Grand Prix Final to get a bye past Challenge? Doesn't Najarro get a bye for being top 5 at Nationals last year?

Perhaps I am misinformed, but doesn't a Grand Prix Event only get you a bye past sectionals? Wouldn't you have to make the Grand Prix Final to get a bye past Challenge? Doesn't Najarro get a bye for being top 5 at Nationals last year?

It is top 3 at nationals that get a bye. Najarro did not finish in the top 3 last year, no senior GP assignment and no JGPF. Her JGP assignment allowed her to skip sectionals but she still has to do the challenge.

A senior grand prix event gets you a bye straight to nationals. There is no requirement for those who got a senior GP to make the GPF to get the nationals bye. Making the JGPF also gets you a bye to nationals.

A senior-B and/or JGP event gets you past sectionals but not the challenge.

I saw the results for dance for Central Ontario. Ralph/Hill were in the sectionals and got for their free dance 72.07 and Gilles/Poirier (they also were at CO sectionals) got 90.35. I am so excited to see such results for G/P and am looking forward to seeing their dance later this year.

btw. I can't believe it, R/H got worse result in sectionals than in Skate America.

Dube has a GP assignment this week in pairs. So she could have claimed a competition conflict against the Quebec sectional that just finished a couple days ago.

BTW, usually you can use a competition conflict in one discipline to get a bye in another discipline in sectionals. However you can't do this at the challenge level.

Starting last year, Skate Canada does not allow you to use a competition conflict in one discipline to get a bye in a different discipline at the challenge . Before the change ,skaters like Dube, Paul Poirier, Vanessa Crone and Asher Hill often got byes to nationals in singles based on either JGPF or GPF commitments in dance or pairs.

I am sure you can add Ronald Lam ( BC ) to the list. There are 6 senior BC men ( including the late withdrawal Sandhu ) . Since Nam and Firus had sectional byes due to JGP assignments, there were only 4 non-byed entries ( including Lam who did not compete at sectionals). When there are 4 or less non-byed entries in a sectional competition ( 8 in Quebec ) the competitors can choose to skip the sectional.

I'm fairly positive Lam is now skating for another country, though I can't remember which one - I believe some sort of east Asian country (a smaller one, obviously). He competed at BC Summer Skate representing Coquitlam, but I'm fairly positive he's competing elsewhere now for a different country.

Canada is divided into 13 sections. In each section top 4 skaters (8 in Quebec) advance to Skate Canada Challenge. All qualifiers from each section then compete to qualify for Nationals. Medal winners from previous year get a bye to nationals and Senior Grand Prix competitors also get a bye to Nationals.

The number of skaters qualifying for nationals at Challenge is calculated as:

For example in Canada this year we have 2 medal winners from previous year (Phaneuf and Lacoste) and 1 extra Senior Grand Prix Competitor (DeSanctis) (not included in previous year medal winners). That will leave 18-2-1=15. So Top 15 from Skate Canada Challenge would qualify for Nationals

Canada is divided into 13 sections. In each section top 4 skaters (8 in Quebec) advance to Skate Canada Challenge. All qualifiers from each section then compete to qualify for Nationals. Medal winners from previous year get a bye to nationals and Senior Grand Prix competitors also get a bye to Nationals.

The number of skaters qualifying for nationals at Challenge is calculated as:

For example in Canada this year we have 2 medal winners from previous year (Phaneuf and Lacoste) and 1 extra Senior Grand Prix Competitor (DeSanctis) (not included in previous year medal winners). That will leave 18-2-1=15. So Top 15 from Skate Canada Challenge would qualify for Nationals

In pairs, I believe the numbers are capped at 12 teams to Nationals. In dance, it's 15 teams. Basically 3 flights for each event at Nationals. The numbers are the same for Novice, Junior and Senior. Junior Nationals includes Novice and Junior level. Canadian Championships are only Senior level. Challenge is held at the very beginning of December. Nationals/Canadians are held the same week in January - first Junior Nationals, then Canadians. Pre-Novice (Intermediate in the US) stops at Challenge. Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile stop at Sectionals. The difference between Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile dance is that Pre-Juvenile teams only compete 2 pattern dances. Juvenile teams compete 2 pattern dances and a small free dance. The difference between Pre-Juvenile and Juvenile for Singles and Pairs (I think), is that they both only learn 1 program, but of different difficulty levels.

In the past, Challenge was divided into 2 Regions: Western Challenge and Eastern Challenge. Any section Western Ontario and Northern Ontario and west was part of Western Challenge. Any section Central Ontario and Eastern Ontario and east was part of Eastern Challenge. The top 8 from each Challenge event went to Nationals/Canadians, from Pre-Novice to Senior. The top Juvenile skater/team in each section went directly to Nationals. With the onset of the LTAD program, COP which creates more expensive competitions and requires more carefully screened tech specialists and judges, and the ever evaporating sponsorship money, combined with complaints about one Challenge competition being "easier" than the other side (meaning not always the best skaters/teams advance to Nationals/Canadians), the qualifying system was changed to what is outlined above. Junior skaters can get a bye straight to Challenge by competing in a JGP event. If the skater/team earns a spot to the JGPF, they can go directly to Nationals. For Senior, if a skater/team competes in a GP assignment or was a medalist last year, they earn a bye directly to Canadians.