GOP at risk of losing Bill Young’s seat

Republicans are openly worried they could lose a Florida congressional seat that the party has held since before Richard Nixon was president — and give Democrats early bragging rights in their long-shot bid to win the House next year.

Republicans have controlled the St. Petersburg-area 13th District for more than four decades until former GOP Rep. Bill Young’s death last month. But the district is very much in play — President Barack Obama carried it in 2008 and 2012 — and the party believes it has an ideal candidate to capitalize on its moderate strain in former state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.

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Election Day 2013: What to watch

Sink, who narrowly lost a campaign for governor in 2010, has the precious commodity of high name ID, in addition to cutting the image of a reasonable centrist, observers of both parties say.

“I think Alex jumping in is the 800-pound gorilla in the room. I would call her the favorite right now,” said Fred Piccolo, a Republican consultant in the state and former congressional chief of staff. “I think she starts out with the advantage over any Republican.”

Last week, GOP Gov. Rick Scott announced the dates for the special election, with the primary on Jan. 14 and the general election on March 11.

While Democrats begin the race highly organized — the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and EMILY’s List have already thrown their support to Sink, which is likely to help her avoid a bruising and expensive primary — Republicans appear far less so. Former St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Baker, who had been widely seen as the GOP’s strongest possible candidate, announced over the weekend that he would be sitting the contest out. Also staying out are Bill Young’s widow, Beverly Young, and son, Bill Young II, both of whom would have entered the race with high name ID.

No one’s writing off Republicans just yet. A few other possible GOP candidates, including Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri and former Clearwater Mayor Frank Hibbard, are still looking at joining the race. David Jolly, a former Bill Young aide, has said he will run. But some Republicans are privately wary, pointing to his work as a lobbyist.

No matter who Republicans nominate, it’s unlikely he or she will have the national fundraising network or name recognition that Sink does. And the compressed time frame of the race only enhances that advantage for the Democrat.

Republicans openly acknowledge they’ve got a problem on their hands.

“I don’t know who Republicans have. Now that Sink has entered the race, I think it’s the Democrats’ to lose,” said Mike Fasano, a popular former Republican state representative. “I could be wrong, but Alex Sink is going to be tough to beat. And now the big names are taking themselves out of the running.”

Andrea Bozek, a National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman, said: “We take every special election seriously. Florida’s 13th District was won by Barack Obama in the last two presidential elections, and there is no question this will be a highly contested race. Florida families understand they need [to] elect a Republican candidate in order to continue Congressman Bill Young’s legacy.”

Some Republicans point to the changing demographics of the district as cause for concern. The race will be centered in Pinellas County — an area that was once a Republican stronghold but is now taking on an increasingly purplish hue. Filled with socially liberal retirees, there’s worry that those voters will be turned off by the tea party’s sway over the GOP, showcased in recent months by fiscal battles in Washington.

Many Republicans say that if it were not for Young, a moderate lawmaker and Florida institution who was the longest-serving House Republican at the time of his death, Democrats would have won the seat long ago.

“This is a seat that Democrats should have held for the last 12 years,” said Piccolo. “But they didn’t because of Bill Young.”

Taking place in a swing district at the onset of a midterm election year, the contest is likely to be highly scrutinized and read for clues about what 2014 has in store. Strategists from both parties expect an avalanche of cash to be spent and for the race to become a testing ground for national party messages.

That means St. Petersburg-area voters are likely to hear a lot from Democrats about the dangers of tea party conservatives, and from Republicans about the dangers of Obamacare and the president’s agenda.

In an interview last week, Sink cast herself as a moderate and took aim at the Republican-led House, saying that voters in the district were “angry and frustrated and upset” over the government shutdown.

“This is the reason I got in the race in the first place,” she told POLITICO. “It’s because I got mad.”

At the same time, she distanced herself from Obamacare and criticized the White House over its implementation of the law.

“You don’t say you’re open for business when you haven’t done the testing … and clearly, they didn’t do that,” she said. “Someone should have stood up and said, ‘You’re not ready yet.’”

A special state House election could provide clues for how Sink will run her campaign. Last month, Democrat Amanda Murphy won a seat in nearby Pasco County, which Mitt Romney carried over Obama, over a well-funded Republican opponent. In that race, Murphy ran as a moderate who would be independent of party leaders and who would reach out to Republicans.

Republicans will have their own argument against Sink. Last week, the Florida Republican Party released a Web ad taking aim at the candidate for her tenure as chief financial officer, pointing out that she ran the office at a time when the state had a loss in its pension fund. And some Republicans are looking back to the attacks the party used against Sink in her unsuccessful 2010 gubernatorial campaign, when the GOP painted her as a pawn of national Democrats and criticized her donating to a multitude of party figures.

For now, though, it’s Democrats who are eager for the race to begin in earnest. A win, they argue, would provide a big boost for their midterm fortunes.

“This is a barometer of where Republicans and Democrats stand,” said Dave Beattie, a Democratic pollster in the state. “It would be a real positive for Democrats nationally.”