October 14, 2017

Bitcoin is frequently compared to gold. But it’s not an either/or proposition… and I’ll tell you why. Indeed, gold and bitcoin are the only two widely distributed, decentralized methods of exchanging value as currency. There is no central authority issuance like there is with U.S. dollars or any other fiat currency. Likewise, neither bitcoin nor gold can just be “printed” at the push of a button by an anxious central banker. You have to either earn your gold by mining it – which is also what you do to get bitcoin, but with computers instead of picks and shovels – or you can pay cash for it. But there’s one big difference between the two…Gold is the very opposite of new technology. Gold is a physical, tangible and real asset. Gold is a physical tangible asset that has held value for thousands of years. Bitcoin is a code that is store on the internet, and if you lose it, then you lose your bitcoin. I’ve had friends that have lost their private key and as a result have lost access to their bitcoin. Bitcoin is built on blockchain technology and the distributed ledger system and it’s not easy to explain to the average person. Bitcoin will never be gold. Gold is the standard when it comes to being a store of value and medium exchange. But…you should still own bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate in freedom of asset ownership. The government can’t confiscate it from you, as it did from owners of gold in 1933 in the U.S. under Executive Order 6102. You can cross national borders with bitcoin in your possession on a USB-stick device, a piece of paper… or if you can memorize your private key, with no physical object in your possession of any kind. Whether your bitcoin is worth US$100 or US$100 million, it makes no difference to how you move and store it (which is clearly not the same with gold). You don’t need a trusted middleman to send it, and you can move it around the world, securely, in a matter of minutes. And if you’re looking for gains… bitcoin is a lot likelier than gold to be up 1,000 percent three years from now. Even though its price has soared over the past few years, it’s still nowhere near mainstream yet. So gold and bitcoin both deserve a place in your portfolio. Gold has stood the test of time and is a medium of storing value. Bitcoin’s time, on the other hand, is just beginning. Blockchain is the future, and when you have an opportunity to buy the future and tuck it away, you should take it. If you’re interested in learning how I purchase bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies, feel free to contact me.

They don’t ring a bell at the top and tell you to get out, but I have to say that I’m pretty sure that I can hear something. I’m not sounding the alarm on the entire market, but I think it is past the point where buying certain very popular technology companies is a good idea. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that you do not want to own this group of companies today. More on that in a moment. First, let’s look back at some helpful history… I mentioned that there isn’t anyone who rings a bell for us at the top to tell us that it’s time to sell. That isn’t fully accurate, because there are always signs. The trouble with those signs is that while they are very obvious with the benefit of hindsight, they aren’t so easy to see in real time. In 1929, JFK’s father Joseph Kennedy Sr. picked up on one of those subtle signs and didn’t just get out at the top, he scored a massive windfall on the way down as well. Kennedy had made a lot of money in the 1920’s with the market going up, but it was when he was getting his shoes shined one day that he changed his strategy and made even more money. What happened? While sitting in the shoeshine chair, Kennedy Sr. was alarmed to have the shoeshine boy gift him with several tips on which stocks he should own — yes, a shoeshine boy playing the stock market. This unsolicited advice resulted in a life-changing moment for Kennedy Sr. who promptly went back to his office and started unloading his stock portfolio. In fact, he didn’t just get out of the market, he aggressively shorted it — and got filthy rich because of it during the epic crash that soon followed. They don’t ring bells at the top, but apparently when shoeshine boys start giving stock advice it is time to head for the exits. Why was this moment important? Because someone with no education of the financial markets was gambling with the market, and if the average person with no financial experience is gambling, then when the market starts to turn down, those with financial and emotional intelligence can make a lot of profit. The author goes on to express his concern with the high level of concentration in technology companies specifically FANG+. In fact, there is the NYSE FANG+ index comprised of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Alibaba, Baidu, Nvidia, Tesla, and Twitter. From September 2014 to 2017, these group of stocks have had a 28.44% annualized return. The author would’ve owned these stocks three years ago but would he own them today? No! As a group these stocks are frighteningly expensive today. That is generally what happens when stocks go up that fast, they become much less attractively valued. Rather than just take my word on that, let’s look at some facts. Here are the current trailing price to earnings multiples for each of the members of the NYSE FANG+ index:

Facebook – 37 times

Apple – 17 times

Amazon – 242 times

Netflix – 215 times

Google/Alphabet – 35 times

Alibaba – 62 times

Baidu – 47 times

NVIDIA – 51 times

Tesla – Doesn’t even turn a profit

Twitter – Doesn’t even turn a profit

Individually these stocks range from expensive to absurdly expensive. On average though, I’d have to say the valuation of the group is close to the absurd. The average price to earnings ratio of the eight companies that actually have earnings is 88 times. Yikes! Does it mean these companies are bad companies and are going to collapse? No not necessarily, but are these prices possibly too high? Only your fundamental and technical analysis can give you the answer. Again, having financial and emotional intelligence is important when building wealth. As volatile as the stock market, you should watch the prices of the cryptocurrencies, and you’ll see truly volatile swings. Markets are controlled by supply, demand, and emotion. Carefully monitor the market and understand these tech companies to find your entry point, and always ask yourself what is your exit strategy? What are your plans with the capital gains? Are you willing to lose it all?