News from the Votemaster

Today's harvest is 39 polls in 18 states.
In most states the winner didn't change, but we have motion in two key states.
The most recent poll in
Ohio,
Zogby's tracking poll, puts Kerry a tad ahead there, 46% to 45%, well within the margin of
error. Other Ohio polls are mixed. Rasmussen's tracking poll puts Bush 4% ahead but
the LA Times poll puts Kerry 4% ahead. Let's call Ohio a tie. Which way it goes will
almost assuredly depend on the turnout Tuesday, especially among younger voters.
Could OSU elect the next president? It is not out of the question.

The other state where we have a change is
Michigan.
According to the latest poll there (Zogby's tracking poll) Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each.
However, two other polls (Rasmussen and Mitchell Research put Kerry ahead by 6% and 1%, respectively).
All in all, by gaining Ohio and having Michigan be tied, Kerry makes a net gain and now leads in the
electoral college, but neither candidate has the required 270 electoral votes it takes to win.

Ellis Henican had a very insightful
column yesterday that is relevant to the Rasmussen poll I cited yesterday in which
1/3 of the voters weren't sure the election would be fair.
Henican said the banks execute millions of ATM transactions every
day, giving the customer a printed receipt if requested,
and get them all right all the time. Not a margin of 1%,
no recounts, but 100% right all the time. Why can't we make
a voting system that is 100% right all the time?
It would seem to me that the right way to do this would be a touch
screen machine that asks the voter to make choices for the various
offices in a language chosen by the voter (with audio output if desired),
and when all done prints a paper ballot the voter can personally verify
and deposit in the ballot box. The computer total would be available
instantly after the polls close but in the event of a challenge, these paper
ballots could be optically scanned or even hand counted. I can't believe
a system like this is infeasible and it would certainly help restore
faith in the electoral process.

But the problems aren't only technological. There may be deeper forces at work.
Today's New York Times reports that tens of thousands of absentee ballots in Florida's heavily Democratic Broward County
have mysteriously vanished. The county says it mailed them but the post office says it never got them.

Several lawyers have contacted me about the issue of what to do if you show up to vote and the
election officials say you are not registered. Here is the procedure. First, be absolutely sure you
are in the correct precinct. If you are in the wrong precinct, in most states, your vote won't be counted.
If you are not 100% certain of your polling place, go to
www.mypollingplace.com and check.
Alternatively, call the toll-free number 1-866-OUR-VOTE or your county clerk. If you are sure you are
in the correct polling place and the officials claim you are not registered, ask for a provisional
ballot and fill it out correctly. You are entitled to one by
law.
Politely, but firmly, insist on being given a provisional ballot.

Today's
Washington Post has an excellent story dealing with the issue of whether the polls are accurate.
The basic problem is that the vast majority of people refuse to participate, so the sample is
no longer random. Surveying mostly elderly, lonely, or bored people can bias the results.
The Post reports that one caller apparently was so fed up with telemarketeers and
pollsters that he attached a device to the telephone that made such a loud noise it
damaged the pollster's eardrum. Even response rates for exit polls on election day have dropped
to 50%. This information goes a long way to explaining why the polls are so erratic this year.
But in all fairness, the
final 2000 polls
weren't so hot either. Eleven of the 15 national polls just before the election predicted Bush
would win the popular vote by a margin of 2% to 6%. Ultimately, Gore won it by 0.5%.

Legal news: A U.S. District Court judge in Cleveland killed an effort by the GOP to remove tens of
thousands of Ohio voters, largely minorities from the voter rolls, but a judge in Cincinnati has
granted a temporary restraining order in a related case. See Rick Hasen's
Election Law blog for more on these
stories.

Stupidity news: One of Kerry's electors in Ohio, Rep. Sherrod Brown, is
a congressman. Unfortunately, the constitution forbids federal office holders
from being electors. It is possible that if Kerry wins Ohio, Brown's right to
cast an electoral vote will be challenged in court. Whoever picked a constitutionally
ineligible elector needs to get his or her mental software upgraded to the latest release.

Sleeper news: A Rasmussen poll taken Oct. 26 in Arizona puts
Libertarian party
candidate Michael Badnarik at 3%.
When the pollsters actually ask about him, he does surprisingly well.
He might end up canceling out the Nader factor by
appealing to disgruntled Republicans who support a balanced budget and small
government and are appalled by the current deficit and power the Patriot Act
gives the government to snoop on people's lives.

How political involved is your college or alma mater? Take a look at
university hits page.
Note that there is no correction for size here, just the raw hit count.

Earlier I pointed out a number of prominent conservatives supporting
Kerry, such as President Eisenhower's son, John, a lifelong Republican.
I said that if any prominent liberals supported Bush I would mention them, too.
OK, I'll keep my promise. Several readers pointed out that former NYC mayor Ed Koch,
has endorsed Bush.
Some people also pointed out Sen. Zell Miller, too, but he is certainly not a liberal
and has been voting with the Republicans in the Senate for years, so he is
barely even a Democrat.

Several people commented that Hawaii is colored weak Bush when it should be
barely Bush. This is simply because Hawaii doesn't have enough pixels. If you have
any spare pixels, please donate them to Hawaii.

Projected Senate: 46 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 1 independent, 1 tossup
Click here to tell a friend about this site.
To bookmark this page, type CTRL-D (Command-D on Macintoshes).
If you are visiting for the first time, welcome.
This site has far more about the election than just the map.
See the Welcome page for more details.