Some rain and snow showers will be over the north country today
and tonight. Much colder air will move south from Canada tonight
with high temperatures from Friday through Sunday only in the
20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on
Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be
chance for snow showers across the north country from Sunday
through Wednesday.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

As of 434 AM EST Thursday...Compositeradar loop showing lake
effect snow band moving northeast from Lake Ontario across
southeastern Saint Lawrence county at this time. Have maintained
the lake effect snow advisory for there for today. 00Z BTV 4Km
model has a good depiction of this in its forecast for today
which also takes this band into southern Franklin county in
northern New York. Expecting most of this lake effect snow band
will be mainly south of route 3 in northern New York. Expecting
3 to 5 inches of snow across portions of southern Franklin
county today, mainly south of route 3, but this is below
advisory criteria. BTV 4 KM model moves this lake effect snow
band south of the region by 20Z (3 PM) this afternoon, and keeps
this band south of the region tonight. Current lake effect snow
advisory runs until midnight tonight. However, if BTV 4 KM is
correct, than the lake effect snow advisory could be cancelled
late this afternoon.
Expecting rain and snow showers to develop across the remainder
of the region today. BTV 4 KM model shows a band of precipitation
moving south from northern Vermont this afternoon. Have gone
with mainly chance pops across the remainder of the region for
today, except likelypops over portions of northern Vermont this
afternoon.
Colder air filters into the region tonight, so will continue
with chance pops for snow showers tonight.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EST Thursday... 500mb trough with embedded
vorticity will see continued chance for snow showers Friday,
followed by slight ridging Friday night/early Saturday morning.
Overall NW flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic
snow showers. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday,
bringing an end to snow showers across the regions.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 338 AM EST Thursday...Active pattern continues in the
long term with multiple shortwave energy moving through the
North Country. The first arrives Sunday with snow showers. This
looks to be followed by a more significant system Monday.
Currently 00Z guidance showers surface low moving from the Ohio
River valley to the coast, mainly on Sunday night into Monday.
Complicated forecast as surface high pressure resides over
eastern Canada, keeping cooler air over the region in ESE/SE
flow. Model guidance continues to diverge on solutions for the
middle of next week with regard to large mid level low. Slightly
below temperatures continue throughout the period.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 06Z Friday...Mainly VFR conditions across the region
with some low to mid clouds holding in at SLK. The VFR
conditions still continue through the rest of the overnight
hours before trending towards MVFR for northern New York and
MPV. Expect snow showers to move into SLK between 10-12z
tomorrow as a lake effect snow band will waffle north and south.
Due to lack of exact timing I opted to prevail MVFR but I do
anticipate periods of IFR in snow showers. The other additional
TAF concern is for BTV and MPV as there will be the potential
for a snow squall to develop during the afternoon on Thursday. I
opted to mention this via a tempo group for the BTV taf between
15-18z. Light southerly winds at 05-10 knots overnight should
give way to a southwesterly direction tomorrow with the St
Lawrence Valley also seeing a gustier 10-20 knots in the
afternoon.
Outlook 06Z Friday through Monday...After 00z Friday snow
showers become confined mainly to the mountains with ifr
conditions lingering at mpv/slk through 12z Friday. Mvfr cigs
linger at slk/mpv on Friday with vfr developing Friday night
into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with
another widespread light snow event. This system will produce
widespread ifr conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for
NYZ029.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...Deal/Taber