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TSLA was recently trading at $323.25 and has an implied volatility of 39.63% for this period. Based on an analysis of the options available for TSLA expiring on 20-Apr-2018, there is a 27.91% likelihood that the underlying will close within the analyzed range of $280.87-$343.28 at expiration. In this scenario, the average linear return for the trade would be 177.99%.

Price target: Zacks Research has updated their six-month price target for TSLA to $312.08. This price target is a consensus price created from the price targets published by 13 participating analysts whose targets ranged from $155.00 to $500.00.

Mean recommendation: Zacks normalizes analyst recommendations to a 1-5 scale where 1 indicates a strong buy. Their mean recommendation for TSLA has been updated to 2.83, which indicates a hold consensus from analysts. Sentiment has moved from 2.86 to 2.71 to 2.94 over the past three months.

Trade approach: The difference between the current price for TSLA and the mean price target is $21.75, which represents a 3.46% move (7.13% annualized). Since the 180-day implied volatility for TSLA is 40.45%, a neutral range-bound strategy could prove effective if the price target ultimately turns out to be accurate.

Upside potential: Using this neutral range-bound strategy, the trade would be profitable if TESLA INC. closed in the range $279.35-$345.65 on 20-Apr-2018. Based on our analysis, there is a 29.56% likelihood of this return. The maximum return for this trade would be 274.33% if TESLA INC. closed in the range $305.00-$320.00.

Downside risk: As with any options trade, there is a substantial downside risk where you may lose most or all of your investment.