Housing Bubble, credit bubble, public planning, land use, zoning and transportation in the exurban environment. Specific criticism of smart growth, neotradtional, forms based, new urbanism and other top down planner schemes to increase urban extent and density. Ventura County, California specific examples.

Saturday, December 15, 2007

Happy 234th

December 16, 1773

Anyone interested in a repeat performance?

I know you aren't looking at the stamps but tear your eyes for a moment and then ponder the reality of an EIGHT CENT stamp from 1973. Then look lower. No, not her curves, the stamp price curve even further down.

This is an historical graph of stamp prices. Just in case you forgot 1971 is when Nixon stopped convertibility of the dollar to gold.

1) I still think for the price of a stamp today, it's pretty cheap that you can drop a letter anywhere in the US and in a few days it is delivered right to someone else's door...for less than a buck...yeah it's a bargain.

2) Who really uses or writes letters anymore in this day and age, what with cell phones, text messaging, email, voip...I remember when sending a letter overseas used to take weeks..now..seconds...

“‘There are tons of houses on my block that haven’t sold,’ said Veronica Frausto, a county social worker and single mother who bought her house for $612,000 in 2005. ‘They have signs up, and it’s affecting the value of my home as well. It’s ‘price reduced,’ ‘price reduced.’”

“That has trapped people like Frausto, who is unable to refinance her no-down-payment loan because of the drop in home prices. She is renting rooms and working with her lender to try to avoid foreclosure.”

“Girlie Bass…is trying to get her lender to take back the ‘fixer-upper’ on Aetna Way in San Jose she bought for a borrowed $615,000 in 2004. ‘I just want them to release me from the mortgage. Take the house. I don’t care if I get a dime out of it,’ said Bass. She said her loan payment is now $6,497 a month, far outstripping her and her husband’s ability to pay.”

Ok, a social worker getting a 100 percent loan for a house over 600 grand?!?! Fucking please already..just foreclose on her already.

As for girlie bass, what they don't tell you, is even if there mortgage was only 2k a month..they still wouldn't be able to afford it. To get at the typical 28% of gross income max..a 6500 nut means those two knuckleheads should be making 280K combined per year...yeah right..I'm thinking 50 grand tops for the both of them.

Oh how noble of you, you are even willing not to make a profit on your gamble..how about showing some real remorse and saying something like "I'm even willing to lose money on it, you know, give the bank some of MY money..if they take it back"

Ok, a social worker getting a 100 percent loan for a house over 600 grand?!?! Fucking please already..just foreclose on her already.

When I was in San Francisco last summer I struck up a conversation with a very nice local. (There are so many in-your-face bums and crazy people in San Francisco that visitors forget that most people who live there are nice.)

Anyway, we got to talking about real estate. She worked for the city and she thought prices were rational. She didn't live in SF because she couldn't afford it. She commuted from a rental in Redwood City and assumed that insane real estate prices were normal because everyone wanted to live in northern California.

I know that "everyone wants to live here" is just one of the many cliches on the bubble blog now, but she really believed it. SHE ACTUALLY SAID THAT.

It may be true that lots of people want to live there, but few can afford to. That sums up California. The Golden State will bleed Americans to other states until prices come down dramatically.

What's the current downturn pegged at, 10%? Jeez. The moaning now, yet prices have to drop to 50% off the peak. Maybe more, considering the ancillary costs of living in the Golden State that Rob is pointing out. I honestly don't know how you folks on the left coast can do it.

Lou M, totally true. I lived in San Francisco for 5 years after college. I loved it there. I loved the weather, the bay, the GG bridge, And the culture. Both kinds of culture: I lived many years right on Haight and Ashbury and it was arty, and scummy, and a great place to get drunk. Many a great bar there. I worked in the financial district and I loved the suits and the Pyramid (my company), the great restaurants, and China Town. I wanted to live there the rest of my life. And for years the premium seemed worth it. But eventually I changed my mind. I saw my $300k a year neighbors looking for fixer uppers in the ghetto and were still being priced out. Finally I decided to leave because I was tired of living paycheck to paycheck. And I found a lot of other cities to love and make a life in. And weirdly the last time I went to visit, I was overwhelmed by the stink of piss and homeless and dir that somehow didn't bother me before. And I thought ot myself, geez... nice place to visit but I glad I got away.

Lou,USPS may be a monopoly, but they have plenty of competition. We merely skipped the step of having other competitors for moving around pieces of paper.

How easy is it now to pay all your bills on-line, write a few lines to family members several times a week, or even contact your Congressweasel (like that will help)? They have a monopoly, but they're also totally irrelevant.