KennethY's CommentsKennethY's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.comhttp://seekingalpha.com/user/503942/comments
Impac Preferred Stockholders Present Simple Stock Swap Proposalhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/4000639-impac-preferred-stockholders-present-simple-stock-swap-proposal?source=feed#comment-73797095
73797095I am hopeful that IMH hit $4 billion in originations in Q4 but that does seem to be on the high end. I think my $2.7 billion is on the conservative side. Oct was probably a very good month with interests rates still very low and post-election, refi originations probably dropped significantly. The midpoint between your and my estimates seems realistic -- $3.4 billion in Q4 and that would still be a very good quarter, IMO.

I also saw an article recently about Cashcall Mortgage laying off an undisclosed number of people. The timing suggests that maybe it was related to lower refi activity in Q4 and keeping the company lean. The fact that there was no major announcement by the company suggests it was probably fairly small number.]]>Fri, 09 Dec 2016 02:51:14 -0500I am hopeful that IMH hit $4 billion in originations in Q4 but that does seem to be on the high end. I think my $2.7 billion is on the conservative side. Oct was probably a very good month with interests rates still very low and post-election, refi originations probably dropped significantly. The midpoint between your and my estimates seems realistic -- $3.4 billion in Q4 and that would still be a very good quarter, IMO.

I also saw an article recently about Cashcall Mortgage laying off an undisclosed number of people. The timing suggests that maybe it was related to lower refi activity in Q4 and keeping the company lean. The fact that there was no major announcement by the company suggests it was probably fairly small number.]]>Impac Preferred Stockholders Present Simple Stock Swap Proposalhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/4000639-impac-preferred-stockholders-present-simple-stock-swap-proposal?source=feed#comment-73796587
73796587I'm particularly interested in what people think the non-QM originations and pipeline look like in Q4. With the sudden surge in mortgage rates after the election, we should certainly expect a drop in refi but possibly an increase in purchases and possibly a large increase in non-QM.

I'll take a stab at it and say $2.7 Billion originations for Q4. ]]>Thu, 08 Dec 2016 23:42:42 -0500I'm particularly interested in what people think the non-QM originations and pipeline look like in Q4. With the sudden surge in mortgage rates after the election, we should certainly expect a drop in refi but possibly an increase in purchases and possibly a large increase in non-QM.

- Servicing portfolio grew from $6.6 Billion to $8.6 Billion in the 2 months of Q3.

- MSR has grown from ~$55 Million to ~$78 Million at the end of August.

http://bit.ly/2cG8EzL]]>Thu, 08 Sep 2016 18:11:15 -0400- Originations for the 2 months (of Q3) ending August 31 has nearly matched the 3 months ending June 30. The originations were approx $2.8 Billion in July + August vs $3.2 Billion in Apr + May + June. If we were to extrapolate the $1.4 Billion monthly originations in Q3 so far, we're looking at a total origination of $4.2 Billion in Q3. That's $1 BILLION more in Q3 than Q2 -- which was already a blockbuster quarter. Yikes.

- Servicing portfolio grew from $6.6 Billion to $8.6 Billion in the 2 months of Q3.

- MSR has grown from ~$55 Million to ~$78 Million at the end of August.

http://bit.ly/2cG8EzL]]>Latest Circumstances Call For A Direct Preferred Solution At Impachttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3977309-latest-circumstances-call-direct-preferred-solution-impac?source=feed#comment-72793958
72793958Very interested to hear what they say in the CC tomorrow regarding pipeline and Q3 projections. During the annual shareholders meeting, they seemed very upbeat about 2H 2016. Wonder if they're going to stick to the $1.9B pipeline number they quoted earlier and also curious if they plan to recognize any additional DTA.]]>Thu, 28 Jul 2016 16:28:02 -0400Very interested to hear what they say in the CC tomorrow regarding pipeline and Q3 projections. During the annual shareholders meeting, they seemed very upbeat about 2H 2016. Wonder if they're going to stick to the $1.9B pipeline number they quoted earlier and also curious if they plan to recognize any additional DTA.]]>Latest Circumstances Call For A Direct Preferred Solution At Impachttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3977309-latest-circumstances-call-direct-preferred-solution-impac?source=feed#comment-72786886
72786886Thu, 28 Jul 2016 00:18:32 -0400Nintendo Breaks Records With Pokemon Gohttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3988274-nintendo-breaks-records-pokemon-go?source=feed#comment-72677696
72677696Wed, 13 Jul 2016 19:12:13 -0400Avoid Nintendo As Pokemon Go Reality Sets Inhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3988147-avoid-nintendo-pokemon-go-reality-sets?source=feed#comment-72675423
72675423- Pokemon Go is only live in 3 countries (US, Australia, New Zealand). When this game launches in China (HUGE market for gaming apps!!), Japan, UK and the rest of Europe/Asia, that $1.6 million in daily revenue could be exponentially higher.

- Nintendo owns 1/3 of Pokemon Company and an undisclosed % of Niantic. If Pokemon Go continues to gain popularity, Nintendo's ownership in Niantic and Pokemon company will be worth a lot more.

- Nintendo hasn't even reached it's 52-week high even after the big jump in shares the past few days.

- Nintendo, in addition to mobile, has several new exciting things happening in the pipeline including the much anticipated Nintendo NX console which nobody really knows anything about right now. It's being kept very secretive.]]>Wed, 13 Jul 2016 14:37:46 -0400- Pokemon Go is only live in 3 countries (US, Australia, New Zealand). When this game launches in China (HUGE market for gaming apps!!), Japan, UK and the rest of Europe/Asia, that $1.6 million in daily revenue could be exponentially higher.

- Nintendo owns 1/3 of Pokemon Company and an undisclosed % of Niantic. If Pokemon Go continues to gain popularity, Nintendo's ownership in Niantic and Pokemon company will be worth a lot more.

- Nintendo hasn't even reached it's 52-week high even after the big jump in shares the past few days.

- Nintendo, in addition to mobile, has several new exciting things happening in the pipeline including the much anticipated Nintendo NX console which nobody really knows anything about right now. It's being kept very secretive.]]>Preferred Stockholders Seek Restructuring At Impac Mortgagehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3958770-preferred-stockholders-seek-restructuring-impac-mortgage?source=feed#comment-72129683
72129683I'd wait for till the CC is over tomorrow to see what people think of today's Q1 2016 earnings. But on the surface, it certainly looks quite promising. The $2.35 Billion origination volume and $1.65 Billion retail origination volume blew my expectations out of the water.]]>Thu, 28 Apr 2016 17:23:37 -0400I'd wait for till the CC is over tomorrow to see what people think of today's Q1 2016 earnings. But on the surface, it certainly looks quite promising. The $2.35 Billion origination volume and $1.65 Billion retail origination volume blew my expectations out of the water.]]>Preferred Stockholders Seek Restructuring At Impac Mortgagehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3958770-preferred-stockholders-seek-restructuring-impac-mortgage?source=feed#comment-72129400
72129400The $1.65 Billion retail origination number is also a huge improvement over $1.20 Billion in Q4 2015.

All in all, a pretty solid quarter. But the REAL highlight is the CEO comments in the PR:

"Based on the continued growth of our mortgage origination pipeline, we expect to further grow our origination volume into the second quarter."

All in all, a pretty solid quarter. But the REAL highlight is the CEO comments in the PR:

"Based on the continued growth of our mortgage origination pipeline, we expect to further grow our origination volume into the second quarter."

Growth from $2.35 Billion origination would be pretty impressive. Maybe $2.6 Billion or $2.7 Billion in Q2?]]>Preferred Stockholders Seek Restructuring At Impac Mortgagehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3958770-preferred-stockholders-seek-restructuring-impac-mortgage?source=feed#comment-71806072
71806072I can honestly say that the likelihood of this happen is almost zero. Something like this MIGHT be tempting for IMPHP where the company made a mistake and the took action of suspending dividends and changing bylaws WITHOUT the required 66.6% votes for consent. But in the case of IMPHO, the company did receive more than the 66.6% votes required for consent.

There is a real legal argument for IMPHP shareholders to say that the action they took was invalid and should be reversed. The same cannot be said of IMPHO shares.]]>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 23:37:31 -0400I can honestly say that the likelihood of this happen is almost zero. Something like this MIGHT be tempting for IMPHP where the company made a mistake and the took action of suspending dividends and changing bylaws WITHOUT the required 66.6% votes for consent. But in the case of IMPHO, the company did receive more than the 66.6% votes required for consent.

There is a real legal argument for IMPHP shareholders to say that the action they took was invalid and should be reversed. The same cannot be said of IMPHO shares.]]>Don't Pluck A Growth Company Like Impac From Your Portfolio Due To Fearhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3896146-pluck-growth-company-like-impac-portfolio-due-fear?source=feed#comment-70696186
70696186A lot of good news came during the conference call.

1. Significant cost reduction initiatives that will improve margins. (has already resulted in savings Q1 2016).2. Improved pipeline.3. Improved margin outlook in Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015.4. Technology enhancements (DASL, etc)5. Several new product initiates such as the new personal lending product.6. AltQM pipeline acceleration7. Cash position has improved drastically putting company in a much better position for growth in 2016.]]>Sun, 21 Feb 2016 00:15:31 -0500A lot of good news came during the conference call.

1. Significant cost reduction initiatives that will improve margins. (has already resulted in savings Q1 2016).2. Improved pipeline.3. Improved margin outlook in Q1 2016 vs Q4 2015.4. Technology enhancements (DASL, etc)5. Several new product initiates such as the new personal lending product.6. AltQM pipeline acceleration7. Cash position has improved drastically putting company in a much better position for growth in 2016.]]>Impac Should Clean Up The Balance Sheet And Resume Preferred Stock Dividendshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3731386-impac-clean-balance-sheet-resume-preferred-stock-dividends?source=feed#comment-65522656
65522656My guess is that the ATM offering will coincide with a positive event and/or news release (such as a positive Q4 earnings report, a positive write up of DTA or another acquisition). It would make the most sense. When positive news is disseminated, it'll create significantly increased volume and a surge in stock price which will allow the company to sell shares at a premium with little negative impact on the stock price. I truly believe this is the reason for ATM offering and am hopeful that positive news is on it's way. ]]>Wed, 09 Dec 2015 20:29:37 -0500My guess is that the ATM offering will coincide with a positive event and/or news release (such as a positive Q4 earnings report, a positive write up of DTA or another acquisition). It would make the most sense. When positive news is disseminated, it'll create significantly increased volume and a surge in stock price which will allow the company to sell shares at a premium with little negative impact on the stock price. I truly believe this is the reason for ATM offering and am hopeful that positive news is on it's way. ]]>Impac Mortgage Building Cash Balances And Expanding Into New Marketshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3694626-impac-mortgage-building-cash-balances-expanding-new-markets?source=feed#comment-64347576
64347576Fri, 20 Nov 2015 16:39:17 -0500Impac Mortgage Building Cash Balances And Expanding Into New Marketshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3694626-impac-mortgage-building-cash-balances-expanding-new-markets?source=feed#comment-64221696
64221696A couple of points you left out:

- There's been some talk of rising interest rates hurting IMH. I believe the opposite. The ALT-QM product has been growing slower than expected because of the prolonged period of low interest rates. As the rates move up, ALT-QM is primed for major growth. The margins are significantly higher on the ALT-QM product than the other IMH loan products.

- There were 2 new major initiatives discussed during the last conference call. The first was the new consumer loan product. There is a very real potential growth here as they own the cashcall mortgage marketing engine which could drive growth here. The second major initiative was retention. I believe the retention initiative is extremely complementary to cashcall mortgage and would yield additional profits from a segment of the business they already own.]]>Thu, 19 Nov 2015 02:42:21 -0500A couple of points you left out:

- There's been some talk of rising interest rates hurting IMH. I believe the opposite. The ALT-QM product has been growing slower than expected because of the prolonged period of low interest rates. As the rates move up, ALT-QM is primed for major growth. The margins are significantly higher on the ALT-QM product than the other IMH loan products.

- There were 2 new major initiatives discussed during the last conference call. The first was the new consumer loan product. There is a very real potential growth here as they own the cashcall mortgage marketing engine which could drive growth here. The second major initiative was retention. I believe the retention initiative is extremely complementary to cashcall mortgage and would yield additional profits from a segment of the business they already own.]]>Comparative Valuations Among Impac Mortgage And Other Lendershttp://seekingalpha.com/article/3641066-comparative-valuations-among-impac-mortgage-lenders?source=feed#comment-63360806
63360806All good points. I will add what I took from the conference call today which is pretty similar to your takeaways from the CC.

- A number of higher profit-margin consumer lending products will be launched in early 2016. This is particularly exciting because they will be leveraging the Cashcall Internet capabilities to help launch these consumer lending products.- Retention initiative in the pipeline. Another very high profit margin initiative that is highly complementary to Cashcall Mortgage. - $100MM backlog for the higher margin ALT-QM loans. Margins are expected to be 200 bps to 275 bps compared to servicing which is 17 bps to 25 bps. Company continues to ramp this up.- Continued expansion of CC Mortgage into more states -- particularly east coast in Q4.- Company expects origination volumes in Q3 to be similar to Q4 (industry-wise, Q4 is a seasonally slower Quarter so maintaining production is a positive).- Company continue to take advantage of Deferred Tax Assets due to continued profitability. More could be recognized in coming quarters. Less]]>Thu, 05 Nov 2015 23:46:40 -0500All good points. I will add what I took from the conference call today which is pretty similar to your takeaways from the CC.

- A number of higher profit-margin consumer lending products will be launched in early 2016. This is particularly exciting because they will be leveraging the Cashcall Internet capabilities to help launch these consumer lending products.- Retention initiative in the pipeline. Another very high profit margin initiative that is highly complementary to Cashcall Mortgage. - $100MM backlog for the higher margin ALT-QM loans. Margins are expected to be 200 bps to 275 bps compared to servicing which is 17 bps to 25 bps. Company continues to ramp this up.- Continued expansion of CC Mortgage into more states -- particularly east coast in Q4.- Company expects origination volumes in Q3 to be similar to Q4 (industry-wise, Q4 is a seasonally slower Quarter so maintaining production is a positive).- Company continue to take advantage of Deferred Tax Assets due to continued profitability. More could be recognized in coming quarters. Less]]>Impac Mortgage: Poor Business Model, Misleading Accounting: Target: $5.96http://seekingalpha.com/article/3169886-impac-mortgage-poor-business-model-misleading-accounting-target-5_96?source=feed#comment-63276306
63276306"...an increase in gain on sale margins of 20 bps to 205 bps, as compared to the second quarter. "

20 bps margin improvement is pretty big increase. No wonder this quarter turned out pretty nicely with Q3 $1.48 EPS and operating income of $0.83 EPS. This fact ran opposite to the prediction of this article in which the author stated "the margins will be squeezed 20 bps more than our expectation." The author's predicted a 145 bps Q3 2015 sale margins which runs counter to the actual Q3 sale margins of 205 bps as stated by the company's Q3 earnings report.]]>Thu, 05 Nov 2015 00:20:12 -0500"...an increase in gain on sale margins of 20 bps to 205 bps, as compared to the second quarter. "

20 bps margin improvement is pretty big increase. No wonder this quarter turned out pretty nicely with Q3 $1.48 EPS and operating income of $0.83 EPS. This fact ran opposite to the prediction of this article in which the author stated "the margins will be squeezed 20 bps more than our expectation." The author's predicted a 145 bps Q3 2015 sale margins which runs counter to the actual Q3 sale margins of 205 bps as stated by the company's Q3 earnings report.]]>Impac Mortgage - A Growth And Value Storyhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1019231-impac-mortgage-a-growth-and-value-story?source=feed#comment-11789771
11789771Mon, 19 Nov 2012 20:32:16 -0500Impac Mortgage Holdings: 8 Red Flagshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/999601-impac-mortgage-holdings-8-red-flags?source=feed#comment-11533811
11533811Tue, 13 Nov 2012 01:18:48 -0500One Billion Zynga Reasons To Continue Shorting Facebookhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/909301-one-billion-zynga-reasons-to-continue-shorting-facebook?source=feed#comment-10312551
103125512) Biggest thing FB has going for it is all the social connections it created for it's 1B users. Biggest barrier to entry for a new social network (i.e. Google+) is that nobody wants to spend their valuable time re-friending everyone on their FB unless it's like a completely new concept that's worth the effort. G+ found this out painfully.]]>Tue, 09 Oct 2012 00:20:48 -04002) Biggest thing FB has going for it is all the social connections it created for it's 1B users. Biggest barrier to entry for a new social network (i.e. Google+) is that nobody wants to spend their valuable time re-friending everyone on their FB unless it's like a completely new concept that's worth the effort. G+ found this out painfully.]]>China MediaExpress: Reiterating My Buy Based on Global Hunter Reporthttp://seekingalpha.com/article/253682-china-mediaexpress-reiterating-my-buy-based-on-global-hunter-report?source=feed#comment-1478136
1478136Fri, 18 Feb 2011 05:02:45 -0500Avoid Going Long Bank of Americahttp://seekingalpha.com/article/236151-avoid-going-long-bank-of-america?source=feed#comment-1300582
1300582Did you not see the recently judge's ruling that decreased BAC's potential losses from $352 to $31 billion from a group of investors?

This is just the tip of the iceberg. $31 billion is now the WORST case scenario for BAC -- more likely far less. BAC has plenty of time to work these losses out over the next 5+ years.

I'm boggled at how many so-called experts seem to feel they know everything and give 100% credibility to every lawsuit that is claimed only to find out that it's far from the truth.

I can sue any company for $351 billion too -- but that doesn't mean I will get a single dime.

I don't claim that I understand the merits of the case against BAC -- but neither should you. Clearly, the Judge presiding over the secruitization lawsuit does and she already ruled that BAC is not liable for over 90% of the amount being sued for.]]>Wed, 10 Nov 2010 17:22:38 -0500Did you not see the recently judge's ruling that decreased BAC's potential losses from $352 to $31 billion from a group of investors?

This is just the tip of the iceberg. $31 billion is now the WORST case scenario for BAC -- more likely far less. BAC has plenty of time to work these losses out over the next 5+ years.

I'm boggled at how many so-called experts seem to feel they know everything and give 100% credibility to every lawsuit that is claimed only to find out that it's far from the truth.

I can sue any company for $351 billion too -- but that doesn't mean I will get a single dime.

I don't claim that I understand the merits of the case against BAC -- but neither should you. Clearly, the Judge presiding over the secruitization lawsuit does and she already ruled that BAC is not liable for over 90% of the amount being sued for.]]>Cramer's Mad Money - These Stocks Should Not Be Traded (3/31/10)http://seekingalpha.com/article/196556-cramers-mad-money-these-stocks-should-not-be-traded-3-31-10?source=feed#comment-960544
960544Thu, 01 Apr 2010 03:36:24 -0400E*TRADE Financial Corporation Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcripthttp://seekingalpha.com/article/169361-e-trade-financial-corporation-q3-2009-earnings-call-transcript?source=feed#comment-733578
733578* ETFC has deferred income tax assets of $1.4 BILLION, which they plan to take full advantage of during the quarters in which they post losses. They have 20 years to use up this tax asset.

* Layton said that looking at (nearly) the entire month of October, the credit losses looks to be down to slightly-down from Q3. That's a good sign and should result in further decreases in loan loss provisions and charge offs. I would venture to guess the Q4 loan loss provision to be around $300M.

* Seasonally, Q4 is a strong quarter for E*Trade's brokerage division which means higher DARTs. I would venture to guess that ETFC will end up with DARTs of around 235,000. This means an increase in revenue from commissions and fees from Q3.

* About $170M annual decrease in interests due to the debt swap of the Citadel notes in Q3 should be fully taken advantage of in Q4. That means savings of $40-$45M in interest savings in Q4.

So E*Trade lost $59M in Q3. With the above improvements, does that mean E*Trade will finally post a small profit in Q4? What am I missing?]]>Wed, 28 Oct 2009 05:53:45 -0400* ETFC has deferred income tax assets of $1.4 BILLION, which they plan to take full advantage of during the quarters in which they post losses. They have 20 years to use up this tax asset.

* Layton said that looking at (nearly) the entire month of October, the credit losses looks to be down to slightly-down from Q3. That's a good sign and should result in further decreases in loan loss provisions and charge offs. I would venture to guess the Q4 loan loss provision to be around $300M.

* Seasonally, Q4 is a strong quarter for E*Trade's brokerage division which means higher DARTs. I would venture to guess that ETFC will end up with DARTs of around 235,000. This means an increase in revenue from commissions and fees from Q3.

* About $170M annual decrease in interests due to the debt swap of the Citadel notes in Q3 should be fully taken advantage of in Q4. That means savings of $40-$45M in interest savings in Q4.

So E*Trade lost $59M in Q3. With the above improvements, does that mean E*Trade will finally post a small profit in Q4? What am I missing?]]>E*Trade: Very Undervaluedhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/168065-e-trade-very-undervalued?source=feed#comment-726571
726571* assumed $375M charge off (mid-quarter report said range was $350M to 375M)* assumed revenue in Sept is same as avg of July/Aug (there's the same number of trading days in Sept as Aug).* assumed $11M recoveries (using derived % of recoveries from previous quarterly reports)* assumed interest expense continues to decrease as ETFC continued to reduce debt levels (via conversion, etc).* assumed 31% income tax rate* assumed no one-time charges* assumed other-expense same as Q2

net income $10,677.75]]>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:11:48 -0400* assumed $375M charge off (mid-quarter report said range was $350M to 375M)* assumed revenue in Sept is same as avg of July/Aug (there's the same number of trading days in Sept as Aug).* assumed $11M recoveries (using derived % of recoveries from previous quarterly reports)* assumed interest expense continues to decrease as ETFC continued to reduce debt levels (via conversion, etc).* assumed 31% income tax rate* assumed no one-time charges* assumed other-expense same as Q2