WASDE report: Price, production, use forecasts lowered

Wednesday

Jul 17, 2013 at 1:31 PM

Conversely, the import forecast is raised 1 million cwt to a near-record 23.5 million.

U.S. all rice supplies in 2013-14 are lowered 10.5 million cwt or 4 percent to 235.6 million cwt, the lowest since 2000-01, according to Monday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Beginning stocks and production are lowered 1.5 million and 10 million, respectively. Conversely, the import forecast is raised 1 million cwt to a near-record 23.5 million. Beginning stocks for 2013-14 are lowered 1.5 million cwt as small changes are made to 2012-13 supply and use — imports are lowered 500,000 to 21 million, and exports are raised 1 million to 109 million. Rice production in 2013-14 is lowered 5 percent to 179.5 million cwt this month due entirely to a 5 percent reduction in harvested area as reported in the Acreage report released on June 28. Harvested area for 2013-14 is dropped 141,000 acres to 2.45 million, down almost 9 percent from last year, and the lowest since 1987-88.

U.S. all rice total use for 2013-14 is lowered 6 million cwt or nearly 3 percent to 207 million, the lowest since 2000-01, as domestic and residual use, and exports are each reduced 3 million. Ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 28.6 million cwt, down 4.5 million, or nearly 14 percent from a month ago, and the lowest since 2003-04.

The 2013-14 long-grain rice U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, up 60 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain SAFP is projected at $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2013-14 all rice SAFP is projected at $14.90 to $15.90 per cwt, up 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. Long-grain rice price projection for 2013-14 is raised due mostly to a decrease in expected supplies. Combined medium- and short-grain rice prices are expected to remain near last year's level as there will be strong competition from Egypt and Australia for export markets outside of Northeast Asia. Global 2013-14 rice production, consumption, trade and ending stocks are all reduced from last month. Global production is projected at 478.7 million tons, still a record despite decreases totaling 500,000 mostly due to reductions for the United States and Vietnam.

Global exports in 2013-14 are reduced slightly due mostly to an expected decrease in U.S. and Pakistan, which is partially offset by an increase for China. Global consumption for 2013-14 is reduced due mostly to decreases for the United States and Nigeria, which are partially offset by increases for Thailand. World ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected at 108 million tons, down 600,000 from last month, but 2.6 million above the previous year. The decline in ending stocks is due mostly to reductions for the United States, Indonesia and Vietnam, which is partially offset by increases for China, Nigeria and Thailand.

Several significant trade changes are made for 2012-13. Global 2012-13 exports are reduced by 600,000 tons with most of the decrease occurring for Thailand and Pakistan — down 500,000 and 200,000 tons, respectively. This is partially offset by increases in 2012-13 exports for China, Argentina and the United States. Imports for 2012-13 are lowered for Indonesia and the Philippines.