Category Archives: Probability forecasting

Recently, James Brown, Albrecht Weerts, Paolo Reggiani and myself published a research article on statistically post-processing ECMWF-EPS weather re-forecasts for use in streamflow forecasting. The article’s highlights can be summarized as follows: ECMWF ensemble reforecasts of precipitation and temperature were … Continue reading →

Wednesday, March 27th, I’ll be giving a webinar on pre-processing in hydrologic forecasting. The webinar is part of a new series of online presentations that are part of the HEPEX initiative. It is hosted by ECMWF and starts at 4pm … Continue reading →

This afternoon, at the FloodRisk2012 conference in Rotterdam, I will present on the findings of the Probabilistic Forecast Use project that we’re currently finalising. There is a strong theoretical rationale for using probabilistic rather than deterministic forecasts. Currently, however, there … Continue reading →

Below image was posted on Twitter yesterday by Environment’s Agency David Troup. I like it a lot. To me, it gives an instant overview of flow levels across England and Wales. I’d love to have a similar graphic available in … Continue reading →

A few months ago, a paper on Estimating the benefits of single valued and probabilistic forecasts for flood warning by Micha Werner and myself was published in HESS. Last Wednesday, I gave a presentation on the concepts developed in that … Continue reading →

Last summer, Micha Werner and I submitted a paper to HESSD. The paper received fairly favourable reviews and the final revised paper was published in HESS just before Christmas 2011. Novelties presented in the paper: a framework to compare reductions of … Continue reading →

November 2012 update: we are organising this session at EGU2013 also. Why do we make hydrological predictions? To explain? To decide? What makes a good explanatory model? What makes a good model for policy or decision making? Do they differ? … Continue reading →