Welterweights

The Matchup: Perhaps no UFC welterweight has a
more concrete claim to the division’s No. 1 contender spot than
Hendricks, who was bypassed in favor of Nick Diaz
despite a resume that includes emphatic knockout victories over top
10 regulars Martin
Kampmann and Jon Fitch.

“Big Rigg” was originally scheduled to face fellow heavy-handed
wrestler Jake
Ellenberger as part of the promotion’s unofficial 170-pound
mini-bracket, but an injury to Rory
MacDonald shuffled the deck and paired Hendricks with Condit,
the former No. 1 contender. Condit is a far more diverse striker
than Ellenberger, who would likely have been content to trade power
punches with the
Team Takedown member.

Although “The Natural Born Killer” was largely controlled for the
duration of his five-round meeting with Georges St.
Pierre at UFC 154, he was able to score a third-round knockdown
with a head kick that the reigning welterweight champion never saw
coming. Condit’s ability to change levels with his kicks and
punches while utilizing intelligent movement will provide Hendricks
with a different type of challenge.

While Kampmann is a versatile offensive fighter in his own right,
Hendricks was able to capitalize on the Dane’s tendency to start
slowly, unloading with a right hook followed by a decisive straight
left. Condit has better footwork than Kampmann, which he
demonstrated by consistently frustrating Diaz in their interim
title bout at UFC 143. The Jackson’s
Mixed Martial Arts product is able to control striking
exchanges by throwing combinations and then retreating from danger.
Condit is 6-foot-2 and owns a five-inch reach advantage against
Hendricks, so he should be able to control range with his kicks
while avoiding the powerful left hand of his opponent.

Hendricks’ chances of another resounding knockout victory are slim,
but he can control this fight by using his punches to move into
clinch and takedown range. A two-time NCAA national champion
wrestler at Oklahoma State University, Hendricks should try to
bully the lankier Condit with dirty boxing in the clinch before
dragging the action to the mat. What Condit lacks in defensive
wrestling he makes up for in activity on the canvas; he owns 13
victories by way of submission and will also stay busy with punches
and elbows from his back. Although he was unable to do so against
St. Pierre, Condit proved he can return to his feet after being
taken down against Dong Hyun
Kim at UFC 132.

The Pick: Look for Condit to outpace his adversary
with a high-volume and versatile attack on the feet, before
Hendricks shifts gears and attempts to impose his will through
wrestling. The bout could come down to a tense third frame, with a
key takedown or significant strike shifting the momentum. A split
decision would not be a surprise here. Condit keeps Hendricks
guessing just enough to eke out a narrow victory.