Apple Made One Thing Clear This Week — The iPhone Is The Only Thing That Matters

Apple's earnings
report made it crystal clear what the company needs to
do to keep growing and keep investors happy.

It's not exactly rocket science, either.

Apple just has to grow the iPhone business.

That's it!

iWatches are fun to talk about. An Apple TV might be cool. The
payments industry is enticing.

Dividend increases and share buybacks might make some people
happy, but they're ultimately useless for Apple.

If Apple wants to make everyone happy, it's all about the iPhone.
The rest of it is a sideshow, for now.

Apple is the iPhone company. Business Insider Intelligence

The iPhone generated $26 billion in sales last quarter, or
59% of Apple's total revenue.

The iPad, by contrast, was $7.6 billion, or 17% of Apple's
revenue. The iPad was once seen as the second strong
leg of Apple's business future. But, it's
only slightly more important than the Mac, which generated
$5.5 billion, or 12% of total revenue. No one is going to call
the Mac the future of Apple.

Because of the disparity in importance for Apple between
the iPhone and the iPad, investors are mostly ignoring what was a
startlingly bad quarter for the iPad.

Business Insider

iPad unit sales were down 16% on a year-over-year basis. Revenue
was down 13%. But, iPhone units were
up 17% on a year-over-year basis, and sales were up 14%.

Analysts were only expecting Apple to sell 37.7
million iPhones. Instead, it sold 43.7 million
iPhones. Apple's stock was up 9% in the two
days after earnings.

This is important to remember when people start talking
about the iWatch. There's almost no way the iWatch will be as
successful as the iPad, which is probably the most successful
consumer technology product launch in history. Apple has sold 210
million iPads since launch, almost twice what it sold of iPhones
at a comparable point in the iPhone's history. And yet, the iPad
is already hitting a wall. But investors don't mind, as long as
the iPhone is strong.

How did Apple sell so many more phones than expected? It
seems like it has a lot to do with the iPhone 4S, which is the
entry-level, or cheapest, iPhone model.

Early on the earnings call CEO
Tim Cook said, "These stronger results were broad-based both
from a product point of view with demand for each of our three
iPhone stronger than its predecessor and from a geographic
standpoint."

But later in the call, Cook and CFO Luca Maestri,
talked about the iPhone 4S, which suggested it drove incremental
demand for the iPhone.

One big clue that the iPhone 4S drove sales was the average
selling price of the iPhone. It was $596, a $41 drop from the
previous quarter, which Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein said
was the largest sequential drop in the iPhone's
price. Business Insider Intelligence

"When you look at the $41 of decline, I would
say about half of that was driven by the fact that we have
continued to do very well in emerging markets with the 4s," said
Maestri on the call. "I have mentioned that there is a lot of
markets where we've grown very strongly in Latin America, in
Asia-Pacific, in Eastern Europe. So, about half of that decline
came from the stronger sales of the 4s."

Apple's pricing breaks down, roughly, as follows: The
iPhone 5S costs $650, the 5C costs $550, and 4S costs $450.
Prices vary around the world, and depending on the storage of the
phone model, those prices can change. But there's about a $100
gap from phone to phone.

Cook followed up Maestri's comments, saying, "We've seen
our ability to attract new users to iPhone to be very significant
in the emerging markets. We were seeing new to iPhone numbers on
the iPhone 4s sales in the 80 percentages in certain large geos
[or geographies]."

The iPhone 4S was mentioned seven times by Cook and
Maestri. The iPhone 5S wasn't mentioned once. It seems like the
iPhone 4S drove the unexpected increase in sales.

This clearly indicates that (duh) people will buy more iPhones if
they can afford them. It suggests that Apple should be lowering
prices on the iPhone line, while at at the same time diversifying
to appeal to a broad group of users.

Feng Li/Getty Images

For years, Apple has insisted that it can only make a
great phone for the relatively high prices it charges. But,
analyst Benedict Evans argued that this isn't necessarily true
anymore on the
Andreessen Horowitz podcast this
week.

"Three years ago, you couldn't make a cheaper phone they
would be proud of, they would have to make too many compromises.
If you remember what the cheaper Androids of two or three years
ago looked like, that was about right," says Evans. "Today, Apple
could make a $300 phone and it would be a great phone."

And it should because Apple quite literally has more cash
than it knows what to do with. It doesn't need more
profits.

On the earnings call, Apple said it has $132.3 billion in
cash off shore. It basically said it will not be doing anything
with that cash. If it brings it back to the U.S. to use it for
dividends, or share buybacks, then it's hit with a big tax bill.
So, Apple is just letting the cash pile up.

If Apple planned to make massive acquisitions of foreign
companies with its cash, then it would make sense to keep growing
the cash pile. But that's not the Apple way. It doesn't do
massive take overs. So, it's just going to grow its
cash.

Earlier this year, Tim Cook announced that he did $14
billion Apple buybacks over a two-week period. At the
time, he
told the Wall Street Journal he wants to "be able to
adjust for the long-term interest of the shareholders, not for
the short-term shareholder, not for the day trader."

Clearly, Cook cares about shareholders, and what happens to the
stock.

Apple announced plans to increase its buyback during the
earnings report. It's funding the buyback with a combination of
domestic cash, and debt. Apple is willing to take on debt to buy
shares to invest in the company. AP

But the truth is that share buyback announcements have done
almost nothing to boost Apple's share price. For instance, the
day after he said Apple bought $14 billion worth of stock, and
planned to buy more, the stock was up 1.4%. The day after Apple
announced stunning iPhone sales, the stock was up
~8%.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out what investors want.
They want more iPhone sales.

So, rather than grow a giant stack of cash overseas, which
gets no love from investors, and does nothing tangible for Apple,
why not rethink the iPhone line? Why not introduce a truly
low-cost model at ~$300? Then introduce a mid-tier model at $450.
And then two high end models in the $550 and $650 range.

The iPhone line can be diversified by screen size and
capabilities. The $300 phone could be the iPhone 5C. The $650
phone could be a big-screen device in the phablet category. The
mid-tier could be the 5S, and the $550 could be that rumored
4.7-inch iPhone 6.

For all the talk of Apple trying to explore new categories,
the existing smartphone category remains a massive
opportunity.

As Tim Cook said on the earnings call when asked about
people upgrading their current iPhones, "What I see as the bigger
opportunity for Apple is that the smartphone market is still only
1 billion or so units and it will eventually take over the entire
mobile phone market."

That's dead-on. The demand for iPhones is strong. People
just can't afford them. So, Apple should get people into the
ecosystem at a great value.

This isn't complicated. Forget about the iWatch. Forget
about an Apple TV. End the share buybacks. Just sell iPhones.
Lots and lots of iPhones. Customers will be happy. And investors
will be happy.

But what about margin compression? Won't Apple's margins
take a hit? Yes, yes it will. But, so what? Apple has to make a
choice: Either it grows its revenue and shrinks profits slightly,
or it lets revenue and profits continue to grow at a single digit
rate.

Technology companies are rewarded for hyper growth on the
top line. If Apple super charged iPhone sales, it would be
rewarded.