NASA is poised to launch a trial
version of its new rocket next week, though the vehicle's ultimate fate is up
in the air.

The Ares
I-X flight, set to launch Oct. 27 from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape
Canaveral, Fla., is a
test version of the planned next-generation Ares I rocket, which NASA hopes
will ferry humans and cargo to low-earth orbit.

But whether or not NASA will even go
ahead with building the Ares I rocket remains to be seen. The space agency is
currently awaiting
a decision by President Barack Obama's administration about whether to
continue on its current course, which includes Ares I, or to move in a new
direction.

"Ares I is living on a very
thin thread," said John Logsdon, a space policy expert and professor
emeritus at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. Logsdon predicted
that the rocket does not have a high likelihood of being approved as part of
NASA's future plans.

The booster was conceived under
NASA's Constellation
program to carry astronauts aboard an attached Orion crew capsule to the
International Space Station by 2012, to replace the space shuttle fleet due to
be retired.

But an independent panel appointed
by the Obama administration to review U.S. human spaceflight plans predicts
that Ares I won't actually be ready until around 2017. By that time, the space
station is set to be decommissioned.

"The committee found that, because
of technical and budget issues, the Ares I schedule no longer supports ISS needs," the panel, led by former Lockheed
Martin CEO Norman Augustine, wrote in its final report released Thursday.

Logsdon said this means there just
isn't much point in Ares I. "You might spend multiple billions of dollars
to build a rocket that you're not going to use very often," he said.

Ares I under
fire?

The committee suggested encouraging commercial
aerospace companies to develop vehicles to carry humans into low-earth
orbit, instead of using Ares I to do the job, as they could potentially be
ready sooner and might save the government money.

"Everybody is very
excited," he said. "We've been working hard to get to this
point."

Cowart said he didn't know how the
trial launch might affect President Obama's decision but "the thing they
can best contribute is to go fly this mission successfully. We're doing
everything that we can in order to help make this decision."

Ares I-X consists of an
almost-complete first stage ? instead of the five segments that Ares I is
intended to have, the Ares I-X first stage has four engine segments plus a mock
fifth segment. This part of the rocket is based on the twin solid rocket
boosters that launch the space shuttles.

On top of the first stage is a
simulated second stage and Orion capsule, which are fitted to have the same
size and shape as the planned real thing. Consequently, it will fly on a
suborbital mission to an altitude of about 28 miles (45 km), rather than to
low-Earth orbit.

"There's this widespread
impression that it's going somewhere," Logsdon said. "And it's only
going to go up and come right back down. It's just a first stage, it's not a
whole rocket."