Sweden Economic Sentiment February 2018

Sweden: Economic sentiment dips in February but remains buoyant

February 27, 2018

The economic tendency indicator declined from a revised 110.1 in January (previously reported: 110.2) to 109.5 in February according to the National Institute of Economic Research (NIER). Although the indicator has now fallen for three straight months, it remained elevated. Values above 100.0 indicate stronger economic growth than normal, while values above 110.0 indicate much stronger growth than normal.

February’s dip was driven by less optimism from consumers and the construction industry. The weaker showing from the latter is likely linked to the recent cooling in the housing market on the back of ample supply; house prices fell continuously between September and December. In contrast to previous months’ decreases, manufacturing sentiment was largely unchanged in February. Firms in the sector are optimistic, particularly regarding current orders. Rounding out the picture, sentiment in retail improved, while sentiment in the service sector was virtually unchanged. All sectors are well in positive territory.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see fixed investment growing 4.7% in 2018 and 2.8% in 2019. The panelists see private consumption expanding 2.5% in 2018 and 2.1% in 2019.

Total industrial production excluding energy notched growth of 1.4% in July over the prior month in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms, contrasting June’s revised contraction of 1.0% (previously reported: -1.1% month-on-month).

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