Monday, June 20, 2016

803 Martin Wolf of FT warns of need for Deleveraging: forced conversion of Debt to Equity

Martin Wolf of FT warns of need for Deleveraging: forced conversion of Debt
to Equity

Newsletter published on 20 february 2016(1) Martin Wolf of FT warns of need for deleveraging: forced
conversion debt to equity(2) Commodities crash to cause corporate
bankruptcies in the Oil and Gas sector(3) Oil Prices should be going up,
not down - F. William Engdahl

It is
crucial to recognise that something more unconventional might have to be
done - Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England

What might central
banks do if the next recession hit while interest rates were still far below
pre-2008 levels? As a paper from the London-based Resolution Foundation
argues, this is highly likely. Central banks need to be prepared for this
eventuality. The most important part of such preparation is to convince the
public that they know what to do.

Today, eight-and-a-half years after
the first signs of the financial crisis, the highest short-term intervention
rate applied by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of
Japan or the Bank of England is the latter’s half a per cent, which has been
in effect since March 2009 and with no rise in sight. The ECB and the BoJ
are even using negative rates, the latter after more than 20 years of
short-term rates of 0.5 per cent, or less. The plight of the UK might not be
that dire. Nevertheless, the latest market expectations imply a base rate of
roughly 1.6 per cent in 2021 and around 2.5 per cent in 2025 — less than
half as high as in 2007.

What are the chances of a significant
recession in the UK before 2025? Very high indeed. The same surely applies
to the US, eurozone and Japan. Indeed, the imbalances within the Chinese
economy, plus difficulties in many emerging economies, make this a risk now.
The high-income economies are likely to hit a recession with much less room
for conventional monetary loosening than before previous
recessions.

What would then be the options?

One would be to do
nothing. Many would call for the cleansing depression they believe the world
needs. Personally, I find this idea crazy, given the damage it would do to
the social fabric.

A second possibility would be to change targets,
possibly to ones for growth or level of nominal gross domestic product or to
a higher inflation rate. It would probably have been wise to have had a
higher inflation target. But changing it when central banks are unable to
deliver today’s lower target might destabilise expectations without
improving outcomes. Moreover, without effective instruments a more
ambitious target might just seem empty bombast. So the third possibility
is either to change instruments or to use the existing ones more
powerfully.

One instrument, not much discussed, would be to organise the
deleveraging of economies. This might need forced conversion of debt
into equity. But, while desirable in extreme circumstances, this would
be practically difficult.

Another would be a still bigger scale of
quantitative easing. At the end of the third quarter of last year, the BoJ’s
balance sheet was 70 per cent of GDP, against less than 30 per cent for the
Fed, the ECB and the BoE. The latter three could follow the former.
Moreover, the assets they buy could be broadened, one possibility being
foreign-currency bonds. But that would be provocative and unnecessary. The
BoJ and ECB have engineered big currency depreciation without making it
quite so blatant.

Yet another instrument is negative interest rates, now
used by the ECB, the BoJ and the central banks of Denmark, Sweden and
Switzerland. With clever gimmicks, it is possible to impose negative rates
on bank reserves at the margin, thereby generating negative interest rates
in markets, without imposing negative rates on depositors. How far this can
be pushed while cash is still an alternative is unclear. Beyond a
certain point, people seek to move into cash-backed warehouse receipts,
unless a penal tax were imposed on withdrawal from banks or cash were
abolished altogether. Moreover, it is unclear how economically effective
negative rates would be, apart from lowering the currency.

A final
instrument is "helicopter money" — permanent monetary emission for the
purpose of promoting purchases of goods and services either by the
government or by households. From a monetary point of view, this is the
equivalent of intentionally permanent QE. Of course, actual QE might become
permanent after the event: that is now likely in Japan. Again, supposedly
permanent monetary emission might turn out to have been temporary, after the
event. But if the money went directly into additional spending by government
or into lower taxes or to people’s bank accounts, it would surely have an
effect. The crucial point is to leave control over the quantity to be
emitted to central banks as part of their monetary remit.

Personally,
I would prefer the last instrument. But at this stage it is crucial to
recognise the great likelihood that something even more unconventional might
have to be done next time. So prepare the ground beforehand. Central banks
should be filling in these blanks now, not after the next recession
hits.

(2) Commodities crash to cause corporate bankruptcies in the Oil
and Gas sector

Debt,
defaults, and devaluations: why this market crash is like nothing we've seen
before

A pernicious cycle of collapsing commodities, corporate defaults,
and currency wars loom over the global economy. Can anything stop it from
unravelling?

By Mehreen Khan, graphic by Tom Shiel, Chris
Newell

10:00AM GMT 06 Feb 2016

A global recession is on the way.
This truism of economics holds at any point in which the world is not in the
grips of a contraction.

The real question is always when and how deep the
upcoming downturn will be.

"The crash will come, but it would be nice if
it came two years from now", Thomas Thygesen, head of economics at SEB told
over 200 commodity investors and analysts in London last month.

His
audience was rapt with unusual attention. They could be forgiven for
thinking the slump had not already arrived.

Commodity prices have
crashed by two thirds since their peaks in 2014. Oil has borne the brunt of
the sell-off, suffering the worst price collapse in modern history. Brent
crude has fallen from $115 a barrel in the summer of 2014, to just $27.70 in
mid-January.

"They tell you should start your presentations with a joke,
but making jokes at a commodities seminar is hardly appropriate these days,"
Thygesen told his nervous audience.

Major oil price falls have a
number of historical precedents. Today's glutted oil market is often
compared to the crash of 1986, the last major episode over global
over-supply. Back in the late 90s, a barrel of Brent crude fell to as low as
$10 in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.

A perfect storm

But
is the current oil price collapse really like anything the world economy has
ever experienced?

For many market watchers, a confluence of factors - led
by oil, but encompassing China, the emerging world, and financial markets -
are all brewing to create a perfect storm in a global economy that has
barely come to terms with the Great Recession.

"We are in a very
unusual situation where market sentiment is of a different nature to
anything we’ve seen before," says Thygesen.

Unlike previous
pre-recessionary eras, the current sell-off has seen commodity prices,
equities and credit conditions all move in dangerous lockstep.

The
S&P 500 trading pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Although a
75pc oil price collapse should represent an unmitigated positive for the
world’s fuel thirsty consumers, the sheer scale of the price rout is already
imperiling the finances of producer nations from Nigeria to Azerbaijan, and
is now threatening to unleash a wave of bankruptcies across corporate
America.

It is the prospect of this vicious feedback loop - where low oil
prices create financial tail risks that spill over into the real economy -
which could now propel the world into a "full blown crisis" adds
Thygesen.

So will it materialise?

The world economy is throwing up
reasons to worry, as the globe's largest emerging markets have shown signs
of deterioration over the last six months, says Olivier Blanchard, the
former long-serving chief economist of the International Monetary
Fund.

"China’s growth is probably less than officially reported. Russia
and Brazil are doing very badly. South Africa is flirting with recession.
Even India may not be doing as well as was forecast," says Blanchard,
who left the Fund after seven years late last year.

As it stands
however, he says market ructions still represent a classic case of "herd"
behaviour.

"Investors worry that other investors know something bad, and
so just sell, although they themselves have no new
information."

Blanchard spent seven years firefighting the worst
financial crisis in history at the IMF

But a tipping point may well
be approaching. According to Blanchard’s calculations, a 20pc decline in
stock markets that persists for more than six months, will translate into a
decline in consumption of between 0.5pc to 1.0pc.

"This would be a
serious shock. My biggest fear is precisely that the dramatic shift in mood
becomes self-fulfilling".

The first domino to fall

For now,
oil-induced financial stress is concentrated in the energy sector.

With
Brent set to languish around $30-35 barrel for the rest of the year, prices
will persist below the $40-60 barrel break-even point that renders the bulk
of US oil and gas companies profitable.

Spreads on high yield US energy
corporates have soared to unprecedented highs. "They make Lehman look like a
walk in the park" says Thygesen.

More than a third of the entire US high
yield bond index is now vulnerable to crude prices remaining low or falling
even further, according to calculations from Oxford Economics.

As a
result, 2016 is set to see the first wave of corporate bankruptcies in the
oil and gas sector. Highly leveraged US shale companies will be the first be
picked off. Should escalating defaults have a further depressant effect on
oil prices, it could unleash a tidal wave of corporate bankruptcies in the
world’s largest economy.

Conditions that usually pave the way for
mounting defaults are currently met in the US Oxford
Economics

Indebtedness is not just the scourge of the US. Globally, the
oil and gas industry has issued $1.4 trillion of bonds and taken out a
further $1.6 trillion in syndicated loans, driving the sector's combined
debt to $3 trillion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.
They warn of an "illusion of sustainability" that could quickly turn toxic
as the credit cycle unravels.

The question exercising the minds of
economists and investors is the extent to which this contagion could
metastasize beyond the energy sector, as banks cut off credit access, loans
turn bad, and financial conditions enter a critical tightening
phase.

"Conditions that usually pave the way for mounting defaults – such
as growing bad debt, tightening monetary conditions, tightening of
corporate credit standards and volatility spikes – are currently met in
the US", says Bronka Rzepkowski at Oxford Economics.

Such levels of
financial distress, more often than not, portend a global
recession.

In every instance of the US high yield spread rising above
its long-term average, a recession or financial crisis has been nigh, says
Rzepkowski, who cites 2011 as the only time the markets sent out a false
signal, lulled by the Federal Reserve’s mega quantitative easing
programme.

US shale break-even prices remain closer to $60 a
barrel

We are not there yet, but worryingly for market watchers, a series
of other indicators are also flashing red.

Global equity markets have
endured their worst start to a year since the dotcom crash. To paraphrase
Nobel prize-winning US economist Paul Samuelson, Wall Street has predicted
nine out of the last five recessions, but the current turbulence has an
ominous precedent.

Over the last 45 years, the S&P500 has suffered a
loss of more than 12.5pc on 13 occasions. Six of these have given way to a
recession in the US, providing a near 50pc probability that a global
downturn is just around the corner.

In Europe, stocks have now fallen
by 10pc in the last six months.

"Of the 14 previous occasions equities
have had a similar decline, seven have been associated with recession, with
lacklustre returns thereafter," says Dennis Jose at Barclays.

He
notes investors have begun to pile into "defensive" stocks, such as
healthcare and consumer industries.

"The weighting in defensives has
increased to the highest levels seen since 1980 suggesting that investors
may have already embraced the risk of a recession."

Dollar
danger

Macroeconomic indicators from the world’s largest economy are also
beginning to turn sour. The US has already fallen prey to a
manufacturing collapse. Service sector data for December showed the
slowdown is spreading to the dominant driver of economic growth.

"The
shine has come off the US", says David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at
Deutsche Bank.

He notes the economy is "firing on one cylinder" with
consumers the sole bright spot in an environment of still weak capital
investment, and a crippling exchange rate that is hurting exporters and
squeezing corporate profits.

"It is not a very healthy situation,"
says Folkerts-Landau, who forecasts US growth will fall below 2pc this year.
"That is a precarious number."

A crucial part of the story has been
the relentless appreciation of the US dollar. The greenback has risen by
more than 22pc on a trade weighted basis since mid-2014.

The effects
have been felt far beyond the US. The soaring dollar has put record pressure
on China’s exchange rate peg, forcing Beijing to burn through its reserves
with interventions amounting to $140bn-a-month in December to protect the
renminbi.

Meanwhile, China’s capital outflows have accelerated to $676bn,
according to the Institute of International Finance.

This policy bind
- known as the "Impossible Trinity" of managing a fixed exchange rate,
maintaining independent monetary policy, and a open capital account - means
a devaluation of some magnitude is all but inevitable.

"It will
definitely be in the double digits", says Folkerts-Landau. "We will be lucky
if the depreciation will be in the lower double-digits by the end of the
year."

"Once you anticipate that, and you are sitting in Indonesia or
Latin America, it has an immediate impact on how you think about the
world".

A weaker renminbi would unleash a new wave of deflation in an
already fragile global environment, and hasten the pressure on emerging
market exchange rates as the world’s currency wars would renew
apace.

Federal reverse?

What, if anything, could halt this
pernicious cycle of events from unfolding?

In the short-term,
analysts are unanimous: all eyes are on the US Federal Reserve. The central
bank’s first rate hike in seven years last December has come to look
frighteningly premature in the space of just eight weeks.

I have no
doubt that the Fed would expand QE Olivier Blanchard

Events have forced
the Fed’s policymakers to take to the airwaves and soothe fears that another
four rate hikes are on the way this year. It is a welcome sign for jittery
markets, but may not be enough to convince them that the Fed will be nimble
enough to reverse course and begin easing should financial conditions
worsen.

Others, like Blanchard, are more sanguine about the ability of
central banks to ride to the rescue again.

"I have no doubt that, if
there was such a decrease in consumption, or if the strong dollar proved to
affect net exports more than is forecast, or any other adverse event for
that matter, the Fed would wait to do further increases" he
says.

"And if things got really bad, I have no doubt that the Fed would
expand QE."

Oil prices meanwhile are widely expected to rebound from
their depths by the second half of the year, as dwindling investment and the
buckling of the vulnerable shale players begins to bite on production
levels.

This in itself presents its own set of challenges. The lower oil
prices fall, the faster buyers are expected to flood back in, with violent
upward movements already in evidence over the last ten days.

In the
longer term, even the postponement of the next global recession will do
little to assuage fears that world could find itself defenceless against
another round of mania, panics or crashes.

Two of the world's three major
central banks have slashed interest rates in to negative territory. Monetary
tools will need to be deployed more creatively, perhaps going as far as
injecting stimulus directly into the veins of the economy.

Should the
world manage to ride out the perfect storm of 2016, next time round, answers
will be difficult to find.

If
there is any single price of any commodity that determines the growth or
slowdown of our economy, it is the price of crude oil. Too many things don’t
calculate today in regard to the dramatic fall in the world oil price. In
June 2014 major oil traded at $103 a barrel. With some experience following
the geopolitics of oil and oil markets, I smell a big skunk. Let me share
some things that for me don’t add up.

On January 15 the US benchmark oil
price, WTI (West Texas Intermediate), closed trading at $29, the lowest
since 2004. True, there’s a glut of at least some 1 million barrels a day
overproduction in the world and that’s been the case for over a
year.

True, the lifting of Iran sanctions will bring new oil on to a
glutted market, adding to the downward price pressure of the present
market.

However, days before US and EU sanctions were lifted on Iran on
January 17, Seyyid Mohsen Ghamsari, the head of international affairs at
National Iranian Oil Company stated that Iran, "…will try to enter the
market in a way to make sure the boosted production will not cause a
further drop in prices…We will be producing as much as the market can
absorb." So the new entry of Iran post-sanctions onto world oil markets
is not the cause for the sharp oil fall since January 1.

Add to the boiling cauldron that constitutes
today’s world oil market the political risk that has been building
dramatically since September, 2015 and the Russian decision to come to the
call of Syria’s legitimately elected President, Bashar al Assad with
formidable airstrikes against terrorist infrastructure. Add as well the
dramatic break in relations between Recep Tayyip Erdog?an’s Turkey and
Moscow since Turkey, a NATO member, committed a brazen act of war by
shooting down a Russian fighter jet over Syrian airspace. All of this would
suggest prices of oil should be going up, not down.

Saudi’s Strategic
Eastern Province

Then, for good measure, throw in the insanely
provocative decision by Saudi Defense Minister and de facto king, Prince
Mohammed bin Salman, to execute Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a Saudi citizen.
Al-Nimr, a respected Shi’ite religious leader was charged with terrorism for
calling in 2011 for more rights for Saudi Shi’ites. There are approximately
8 million Saudi Muslims loyal to Shi’ite teachings rather that the
ultra-strict Wahhabi Sunni strain. His crime was to support protests calling
for more rights for the oppressed Shia minority, perhaps some 25% of the
Saudi population. The Shi’ite population of Saudis is overwhelmingly
concentrated in the Kingdom’s Eastern Province.

The Eastern Province
of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is perhaps the most valuable piece of real
estate on the planet, double the area of the Federal Republic of Germany but
with a mere 4 million people. Saudi Aramco, the state-owned oil company is
based in Dhahran in the Eastern Province.

The main Saudi oil and gas
fields are mostly in the Eastern Province, onshore and offshore, including
the world’s largest oil field, Ghawar. Petroleum from the Saudi fields,
including Ghawar, is shipped to dozens of countries from the oil port
terminal of the the Ras Tanura complex, the world’s biggest crude oil
terminal. Some 80% of the near 10 million barrels of oil a day pumped out by
Saudi goes to Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf where it is loaded on to
supertankers bound for the <http://www.saudiaramco.com/content/dam/Publications/portsterminals/Portof_RasTanura.pdf>
west.

The Eastern Province is also home to Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq
Plants facility, their biggest oil processing and crude stabilization
facility with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day. It’s the primary oil
processing site for Arabian extra light and Arabian light crude oils,
and handles crude oil pumped from <http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/abqaiq-aramco/>
Ghawar field.

And it also happens that the majority of oil field and
refinery blue collar workers in of the Eastern Province are…Shi’ite. They
are said also to be sympathetic to the just-executed Shia cleric, Sheikh
Nimr al-Nimr. In the late 1980’s the Saudi Hezbollah Al-Hejaz, led several
attacks on oil infrastructure and also murdered Saudi diplomats. They
were allegedly trained in Iran.

And now there is a new destabilizing
element to add to the political tensions building between Saudi Arabia and
Erdogan’s Turkey on the one side, flanked by servile Arab Gulf Cooperation
Council states, and on the other Assad’s Syria, Iraq with a 60% Shi’ite
population and neighboring Iran, aided presently militarily by Russia.
Reports are that the instable 30-year old Prince bin Salman is about to be
named King.

On January 13, the Gulf Institute, a Middle East think tank,
in an exclusive report, wrote that 80-year old Saudi King Salman Al-Saud
plans to abdicate his throne and install his son Mohammed as king. They
report that the present King "has been making the rounds visiting his
brothers seeking support for the move that will also remove the current
crown prince and American favorite, the hardline Mohammed bin Naif, from his
positions as the crown prince and the minister of interior. According to
sources familiar with the proceedings, Salman told his brothers that the
stability of the Saudi monarchy requires a change of the succession from
lateral or diagonal lines to a vertical order under which the king hands
power to his most <http://journal-neo.org/2016/01/24/whats-really-going-on-with-oil/%20http://www.gulfinstitute.org/exclusive-saudi-king-to-abdicate-to-son-2/>
eligible son."

On December 3, 2015, the German BND intelligence
service leaked a memo to the press warning of the increasing power being
acquired by Prince Salman, someone they characterized as unpredictable and
emotional. Citing the kingdom’s involvement in Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq
and Yemen, the BND stated, referring to Prince Salman, "The previous
cautious diplomatic stance of older leaders within the royal family is
being replaced by a new impulsive policy of <http://www.mintpressnews.com/saudi-arabia-destabilising-arab-world-german-intelligence-warns/211768/>
intervention."

Now I have a strong gut feeling that there is something very
big, very dramatic building in world oil markets over the coming several
months, something most of the world doesn’t expect.

The last time
Goldman Sachs and their Wall Street cronies made a dramatic prediction in
oil prices was in summer 2008. At that time, amid the growing pressures on
Wall Street banks of the spreading US sub-prime real estate meltdown, just
before the Lehman Brothers collapse of September that year, Goldman Sachs
wrote that oil was headed for $200 a barrel. It had just hit a high of $147.
At that time I wrote an analysis saying just the opposite was likely, based
on the fact that there was a huge oversupply in world oil markets that
curiously, was only being identified by Lehman Brothers. I was told by an
informed Chinese source that Wall Street banks like JP Morgan Chase were
hyping the $200 price to convince Air China and other big China state oil
buyers to buy every drop of oil at $147 it could before it hit $200, an
advice that fed the rising price.

Then by December, 2008 the Brent
benchmark oil price was down to $47 a barrel. The Lehman Crisis, a
deliberate political decision of US Treasury Secretary a former Goldman
Sachs chairman, Henry Paulsen, in September 2008, plunged the world into
financial crisis and deep recession in the meantime. Did Paulsen’s cronies
at Goldman Sachs and other key Wall Street mega-banks such as Citigroup or
JP Morgan Chase know in advance that Paulsen was planning the Lehman crisis
to force Congress to give him carte blanche bailout powers with the
unprecedented TARP funds of $700 billion? In the event, Goldman Sachs and
friends reportedly made a gigantic profit betting against their own $200
predictions using leveraged derivatives in oil futures.

Killing the
shale oil ‘cowboys’ first

Today the US shale oil industry, the largest
source of risíng US oil output since 2009 or so, is hanging by its
fingernails on the edge of a cliff of massive bankruptcies. In recent months
shale oil production has barely begun to decline, some 93,000 barrels in
November, 2015.

The Big Oil cartel–ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP and
Shell–began dumping their shale leases onto the market two years ago. The
shale oil industry in the US today is dominated by what BP or Exxon refer to
as "the cowboys," mid-sized aggressive oil companies, not the majors. Wall
Street banks like JP Morgan Chase or Citigroup who historically finance Big
Oil, as well as Big Oil itself, clearly would shed no tears at this point
were the shale boom to bust, leaving them again in control of the world’s
most important market. The financial institutions who lent hundreds of
billions of dollars to the shale "cowboys" in the past five years have
their next semi-annual loan review in April. With prices hovering at or
near the $20 range, we can expect a new, far more serious wave of actual
shale oil company bankruptcies. Unconventional oil, including Canada’s
huge Alberta Tar Sands oil will soon be a thing of the past, if
so.

That alone will not restore oil to the $70-90 levels that the big oil
industry players and their Wall Street banks would find comfortable. The
glut coming out of the Middle East from Saudi Arabia and her Gulf Arab
allies has to be dramatically cut. Yet Saudis show no sign of doing so.
This is what disturbs me about the entire picture.

Is something very
ugly brewing in the Persian Gulf that will dramatically push oil prices up
later this year? Is a real shooting war between Shi’ite and Saudi Wahhabi
oil states brewing? Until now it has been a proxy war in Syria primarily.
Since the execution of the Shi’ite cleric and Iranian storming of the Saudi
Embassy in Teheran, leading to a break in diplomatic ties by Saudi and other
Sunni Gulf Arab states, the confrontation has become far more direct. Dr.
Hossein Askari, former adviser to the Saudi Finance Ministry, stated, "If
there is a war confronting Iran and Saudi Arabia, oil could overnight go to
above $250, but decline back down to the $100 level. If they attack each
other’s loading facilities, then we could see oil spike to over $500 and
stay around there for some time depending on the extent of the <http://www.oilandgas360.com/iran-vs-saudi-arabia-if-current-actions-escalate-to-war-what-happens-to-oil-prices/>
damage."

Everything tells me that the world is in for another big oil
shock. It seems it’s almost always about oil. As Henry Kissinger reportedly
said back during another oil shock in the mid-1970’s when Europe and the US
faced an OPEC oil embargo and long lines at the gas pumps, "If you
control the oil, you control entire nations." That obsession with
control is rapidly destroying our civilization. It’s time to focus on
peace and development, not on competing to be the biggest oil mogul on
the planet.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and
lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a
best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online
magazine <http://journal-neo.org/> "New Eastern
Outlook".

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About Me

'Mission statement'.
I am convinced that jewish individuals and groups have an enormous influence on the world. The MSM are, for almost all people, the only source of information, and these are largely controlled by jewish people.
So there is a huge under-reporting on jewish influence in the world.
I see it as my mission to try to close this gap. To quote Henry Ford: "Corral the 50 wealthiest jews and there will be no wars." `(Thomas Friedman wrote the same in Haaretz, about the war against Iraq! See yellow marked area, blog 573)
If that is true, my mission must be very beneficial to humanity.