Fuel Focus, July 24, 2015

Table of Contents

National Overview

Canadian Retail Gasoline Prices Stable over Last Two Weeks

For the two-week period ending July 21, 2015, the Canadian average retail gasoline price reached $1.22 per litre. This is about the same price as the two-week period ending July 7, 2015. Prices are 11 cents per litre lower than the same period last year.

Average retail diesel prices decreased by nearly 2 cents per litre over the same time period falling to $1.10. This is 24 cents less compared to the same period last year. Over the same period, furnace oil prices decreased by 1 cent per litre to reach $1.06, 20 cents per litre less than a year ago.

Figure 1

The graph shows prices in cents per litre for gasoline at retail, gasoline excluding taxes, and Canadian Light Sweet and Brent crude oil prices. Gasoline prices ended the period of July 21, 2015 at 122.2 cents per litre, excluding taxes at 82.3 cents per litre, Canadian Light Sweet at 39.1 cents per litre and Brent at 46.6 cents per litre.

Dates

Gasoline at retail

Excluding Taxes

Canadian Light Sweet

Brent crude

07/01/2014

125.0

85.6

60.6

73.0

14/01/2014

125.6

86.2

54.6

72.6

21/01/2014

125.7

86.3

52.8

73.2

28/01/2014

126.6

87.0

55.1

74.9

04/02/2014

125.9

86.7

59.0

75.1

11/02/2014

127.6

88.2

57.0

74.4

18/02/2014

129.3

89.8

68.5

75.3

25/02/2014

130.7

91.0

69.7

75.4

04/03/2014

132.5

92.7

71.5

75.4

11/03/2014

131.8

92.1

70.3

75.9

18/03/2014

132.0

92.3

64.3

75.4

25/03/2014

132.9

93.2

63.4

74.7

01/04/2014

132.9

93.2

64.4

75.2

08/04/2014

133.9

94.1

65.1

73.7

15/04/2014

136.8

96.7

64.2

73.8

22/04/2014

137.7

97.4

65.5

75.7

29/04/2014

139.8

99.4

65.0

76.1

06/05/2014

136.9

96.8

64.2

74.8

13/05/2014

135.7

95.8

64.2

73.9

20/05/2014

136.0

95.9

65.2

75.0

27/05/2014

136.8

96.6

66.2

75.5

03/06/2014

137.4

97.2

70.3

75.0

10/06/2014

138.1

97.9

65.5

74.7

17/06/2014

138.8

98.5

67.1

76.0

24/06/2014

141.2

100.7

67.3

77.8

01/07/2014

138.7

98.4

66.5

76.7

08/07/2014

137.2

97.0

65.2

74.9

15/07/2014

133.8

93.9

62.9

72.9

22/07/2014

133.0

93.2

62.7

72.4

29/07/2014

131.8

92.1

63.0

72.9

05/08/2014

131.1

91.5

63.7

72.9

2014-08-12

133.6

93.8

61.0

72.3

2014-08-19

131.3

91.7

61.1

71.1

26/08/2014

132.1

92.5

59.8

70.2

02/09/2014

132.8

93.0

60.6

70.4

09/09/2014

133.0

93.3

61.2

69.5

16/09/2014

129.9

90.4

60.5

68.2

23/09/2014

129.4

90.0

61.1

68.0

30/09/2014

130.1

90.6

60.6

67.6

07/10/2014

128.0

88.8

60.8

66.4

14/10/2014

123.1

84.4

58.0

64.2

21/10/2014

121.9

83.2

54.8

60.5

28/10/2014

118.8

80.3

53.1

60.8

04/11/2014

117.8

79.5

51.7

60.8

11/11/2014

119.2

80.7

49.0

59.6

18/11/2014

116.2

78.1

47.5

57.2

25/11/2014

114.4

76.4

47.0

56.2

02/12/2014

112.3

74.4

45.9

54.3

09/12/2014

107.2

69.9

42.9

50.3

16/12/2014

101.1

64.4

41.4

49.7

23/12/2014

99.4

62.8

35.6

44.3

30/12/2014

98.1

61.6

35.7

44.2

06/01/2015

95.0

58.8

33.8

42.0

13/01/2015

91.5

55.7

30.5

38.1

20/01/2015

91.3

55.4

29.8

35.8

27/01/2015

92.5

56.5

30.3

37.6

03/02/2015

96.5

60.2

30.7

39.1

10/02/2015

101.2

64.5

34.7

44.2

17/02/2015

103.0

66.2

35.0

45.3

24/02/2015

103.7

66.8

35.7

47.7

03/03/2015

112.3

74.1

35.1

44.6

10/03/2015

108.6

70.6

35.4

47.4

17/03/2015

105.8

68.0

33.8

45.4

2015-03-24

107.3

69.5

31.6

43.7

2015-03-31

107.1

69.3

34.9

44.6

2015-04-07

108.1

70.2

35.6

44.2

2015-04-14

107.6

69.1

38.1

45.3

2015-04-21

109.70

72.8

40.5

46.8

2015-04-28

111.40

71.0

40.7

48.9

2015-05-05

114.5

75.3

41.8

49.9

2015-05-12

113.0

74.0

44.3

50.5

2015-05-19

113.6

74.6

44.5

50.1

2015-05-26

117.4

78.0

44.5

50.2

2015-06-02

119.0

79.4

44.6

49.8

2015-06-09

118.2

78.7

46.3

50.1

2015-06-16

123.6

83.7

46.0

50.0

2015-06-23

122.1

82.3

45.9

49.2

2015-06-30

120.6

80.9

44.4

49.4

2015-07-07

122.1

82.2

42.8

49.0

2015-07-14

123.5

83.5

38.1

46.0

2015-07-21

122.2

82.3

39.1

46.6

Figure 2: Weekly Regular Gasoline Prices

Text version

Figure 2

This graph shows the gasoline price trends from 2013 to 2015.

Date

2013 Gasoline at Retail

Date

2014 Gasoline at Retail

Date

2015 Gasoline at Retail

13-01-01

118.90

14-01-07

125.00

15-01-06

95.00

13-01-08

120.60

14-01-14

125.60

15-01-13

91.50

13-01-15

118.90

14-01-21

125.70

15-01-20

91.30

13-01-22

119.70

14-01-28

126.60

15-01-27

92.50

13-01-29

123.30

14-02-04

125.90

15-02-03

96.50

13-02-05

129.20

14-02-11

127.60

15-02-10

101.20

13-02-12

127.70

14-02-18

129.30

15-02-17

103.00

13-02-19

130.50

14-02-25

130.70

15-02-24

103.70

13-02-26

131.20

14-03-04

132.50

15-03-03

112.30

13-03-05

131.20

14-03-11

131.80

15-03-10

108.60

13-03-12

129.90

14-03-18

132.00

15-03-17

105.80

13-03-19

130.10

14-03-25

132.90

15-03-24

107.30

13-03-26

129.40

14-04-01

132.90

15-03-31

107.10

13-04-02

128.70

14-04-08

133.90

15-04-07

108.10

13-04-09

126.50

14-04-15

136.80

15-04-14

107.60

13-04-16

125.00

14-04-22

137.70

15-04-21

109.70

13-04-23

125.10

14-04-29

139.80

15-04-28

111.40

13-04-30

126.30

14-05-06

136.90

15-05-05

114.50

13-05-07

126.00

14-05-13

135.70

15-05-12

113.00

13-05-14

129.30

14-05-20

136.00

15-05-19

113.60

13-05-21

131.40

14-05-27

136.80

15-05-26

117.40

13-05-28

132.90

14-06-03

137.40

15-06-02

119.00

13-06-04

131.10

14-06-10

138.10

15-06-09

118.20

13-06-11

132.90

14-06-17

138.80

15-06-16

123.60

13-06-18

133.10

14-06-24

141.20

15-06-23

122.10

13-06-25

130.50

14-07-01

138.70

15-06-30

120.60

13-07-02

128.30

14-07-08

137.20

15-07-07

122.10

13-07-09

132.40

14-07-15

133.80

15-07-14

123.50

13-07-16

134.40

14-07-22

133.00

15-07-21

122.20

13-07-23

134.70

14-07-29

131.80

15-07-28

13-07-30

132.70

14-08-05

131.10

15-08-04

13-08-06

131.50

14-08-12

133.60

15-08-11

13-08-13

130.00

14-08-19

131.30

15-08-18

13-08-20

132.00

14-08-26

132.10

15-08-25

13-08-27

133.00

14-09-02

132.80

15-09-01

13-09-03

133.90

14-09-09

133.00

15-09-08

13-09-10

132.10

14-09-16

129.90

15-09-15

13-09-17

130.60

14-09-23

129.40

15-09-22

13-09-24

126.40

14-09-30

130.10

15-09-29

13-10-01

124.30

14-10-07

128.00

15-10-06

13-10-08

123.60

14-10-14

123.10

15-10-13

13-10-15

124.80

14-10-21

121.90

15-10-20

13-10-22

125.50

14-10-28

118.80

15-10-27

13-10-29

124.40

14-11-04

117.80

15-11-03

13-11-05

123.70

14-11-11

119.20

15-11-10

13-11-12

122.60

14-11-18

116.20

15-11-17

13-11-19

124.60

14-11-25

114.40

15-11-24

13-11-26

126.40

14-12-02

112.30

15-12-01

13-12-03

125.40

14-12-09

107.20

15-12-08

13-12-10

125.90

14-12-16

101.10

15-12-15

13-12-17

124.50

14-12-23

99.40

15-12-22

13-12-24

125.00

14-12-30

98.10

15-12-29

13-12-31

128.30

Table 1: Changes in Fuel Prices

¢/L

Two week average ending: 2015-07-21

Change from: 2 weeks ago

Change from: Last Year

Gasoline

122.2

122.1

-11

Diesel

110.1

111.7

-24

Furnace Oil

105.9

107.2

-20

Natural Gas Prices in $CA/GJ

Alberta (NGX)

2.69

0.15

-1.31

Ontario (Dawn)

3.53

0.17

-0.71

Source: NRCan, Bloomberg, NGX

Table 2: Natural Gas Prices for Vehicles

2015-07-21

¢/kilogram

¢/L gasoline equivalent

¢/L diesel equivalent

Vancouver

123.6

81.5

84.5

Edmonton

115

75.9

78.7

Toronto

128.4

84.7

87.8

Source: ¢/kg Kent Marketing Services Limited

Recent Developments

International Monetary Fund Lowers Growth Projections for Canadian Economy in 2015: On July 9, 2015, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast global economic growth to be 3.3 per cent in 2015, down from 3.5 per cent in its April forecast. The IMF also lowered Canada’s growth projection in 2015 to 1.5 per cent, down from 2.2 per cent in its April forecast. Since the U.S. is a key trading partner, unexpected weakness in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of 2015 is also expected to scale back Canadian growth. (Source: http://www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ ft/weo/2015/update/02/index.htmx)

International Energy Agency Reports an Increase in World Oil Production in June: The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report forecasts that the ongoing supply surplus of crude oil will continue to put downward pressure on prices. Global oil supply increased by 550,000 barrels per day in June, on higher output from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. At 96.6 million barrels per day, world oil production was 3.1 million barrels per day higher than a year earlier. (Source: http://www.iea.org/newsroomand events/ news/2015/july/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-july.html)

Domestic Sales of Refined Petroleum Products Increased: According to Statistics Canada’s Supply and Disposition of Refined Petroleum Products, sales of refined petroleum products in April were 8.2 million cubic metres (52 million barrels) higher, up 2.8 per cent relative to April 2014. Refinery production also rose, increasing by 2.3 per cent over the same time period. (Source: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ daily-quotidien/150714/dq150714a-eng.htm)

Retail Gasoline Overview

For the period ending July 21, 2015, the four-week average regular gasoline pump price in selected cities across Canada was $1.22 per litre, the same as the previous 4 week average from the July 10th report. Compared to the same period in 2014, the average Canadian pump price is 14 cents per litre lower.

The four week average crude oil price component of gasoline decreased by 2 cents, averaging 44 cents per litre over the four-week period. This is 25 cents per litre lower than this time last year.

Retail gasoline prices in Western centres decreased by 1 cent per litre compared to the previous report and ranged from $1.06 per litre to $1.34 per litre. Prices in Eastern cities decreased by 1 cent per litre and ranged from $1.18 to $1.29 per litre.

At the national level, refining and marketing costs and margins were 39 cents per litre, 3 cents higher compared to the previous report and 15 cents higher than the same time last year.

In an inland area, refined product pipelines are the most cost-effective means of moving product from the refinery to the markets they serve. Various types and grades of petroleum products are transported through the pipeline in batches to minimize contamination. Refined fuel products must meet strict quality specifications and are more easily contaminated during transportation than crude oils.

Edmonton accounts for approximately a quarter of Canadian refining capacity, and is the main refining centre in Western Canada. Edmonton is connected by three different product pipelines to major markets in the region: the TransMountain to Kamloops and Burnaby, British Columbia; the Alberta Products pipeline to Calgary; and Enbridge Line 1 to Regina, Saskatchewan and Gretna, Manitoba. Short branch lines also deliver product from Regina to Saskatoon and Gretna to Winnipeg.

The Sarnia-Nanticoke refineries in Ontario account for approximately a fifth of Canada’s capacity. The Sun-Canadian and Sarnia Products pipelines deliver output from Sarnia’s refineries to London, Hamilton and Toronto, and the Trans-Northern pipeline delivers products from the Nanticoke refinery to Toronto. The Trans-Northern pipeline also connects a refinery in Montreal, Quebec to Ottawa, Toronto and Oakville. Montreal itself is a key population centre, and a large refinery in Levis, Quebec is linked to the Montreal region by the Saint-Laurent product pipeline.

In Atlantic Canada, given their access to tidewater, refineries deliver their product to their main markets using tanker ships.

Wholesale Gasoline Prices

For the two-week period ending July 16, 2015, wholesale gasoline prices in selected Canadian and U.S. cities went in opposite directions. In Canada, prices were up slightly in all selected cities. Meanwhile, in the U.S., prices declined in all but one selected U.S. city - Grand Forks, North Dakota – where prices increased almost 20 percent.

Wholesale gasoline prices for the two week period averaged between 65 and 86 cents per litre. This compares to the previous two week period where prices were in the 65 to 78 cents per litre range.

In Western Canada, wholesale gasoline prices increased between nearly 2 cents and more than 4 cents per litre ending in the 70 to 82 cents per litre range. Price changes in Eastern markets of Canada and the U.S. ranged between a decrease of about 5 cents and an increase of 2 cents per litre ending in the 65 to 80 cents per litre range.

Overall, prices have been trending upwards since the beginning of the year, though in most selected centres, prices are approximately 7 to 15 cents per litre lower than in the same period last year.

Figure 4

This graph shows the trend in wholesale gasoline prices for selected centres in Canada and the U.S.

DATE

Halifax

Braintree

Montreal

Rochester

Toronto

Buffalo

Edmonton

Grand Forks

Vancouver

Seattle

Thu 02-Jan-14

83.00

81.60

83.90

81.26

82.40

81.49

72.90

77.05

77.80

72.33

Thu 09-Jan-14

81.80

79.89

81.30

81.25

80.00

81.12

72.60

77.50

75.40

69.37

Thu 16-Jan-14

79.90

78.10

80.80

80.69

79.20

80.27

73.60

78.54

74.50

69.50

Thu 23-Jan-14

83.30

81.27

82.50

80.86

81.50

84.27

75.20

81.56

77.80

72.04

Thu 30-Jan-14

83.60

81.57

82.50

81.27

81.60

83.07

75.90

82.75

77.20

72.24

Thu 06-Feb-14

83.00

81.77

81.00

79.85

80.60

82.00

75.00

82.38

76.40

73.02

Thu 13-Feb-14

85.40

84.58

83.50

82.68

83.50

83.54

77.70

86.24

79.80

74.26

Thu 20-Feb-14

87.30

87.33

84.90

85.83

85.20

88.00

79.60

89.82

80.40

76.56

Thu 27-Feb-14

87.60

87.64

84.60

86.29

85.70

87.43

83.00

89.92

82.60

80.13

Thu 06-Mar-14

85.10

84.56

83.30

84.37

84.20

85.84

84.10

91.11

84.80

81.55

Thu 13-Mar-14

85.90

84.97

83.80

85.80

83.50

86.75

85.30

91.48

85.40

82.23

Thu 20-Mar-14

84.20

86.34

82.40

86.82

82.10

87.62

85.00

91.13

85.70

84.11

Thu 27-Mar-14

83.40

84.62

84.00

84.72

82.80

87.34

85.90

90.80

86.80

85.82

Thu 03-Apr-14

81.90

82.99

83.10

83.94

82.50

87.19

85.30

90.11

85.90

83.37

Thu 10-Apr-14

86.70

82.53

86.50

85.36

86.00

95.70

88.00

91.01

89.40

86.71

Thu 17-Apr-14

90.60

88.47

87.90

88.00

88.70

97.62

88.80

90.24

91.20

88.76

Thu 24-Apr-14

91.30

91.03

90.10

89.26

91.40

99.92

90.50

92.66

94.50

88.79

Thu 01-May-14

87.60

88.06

87.00

86.18

88.80

87.36

88.70

88.15

91.30

83.13

Thu 08-May-14

86.90

87.20

84.80

83.61

86.60

89.49

86.60

87.11

91.00

84.56

Thu 15-May-14

86.50

84.35

85.10

84.57

87.20

86.86

86.90

88.18

92.50

85.56

Thu 22-May-14

88.30

85.62

86.70

85.75

89.30

88.24

88.30

90.07

93.20

88.76

Thu 29-May-14

87.30

85.51

86.80

85.31

89.40

87.46

88.60

90.44

93.60

87.32

Thu 05-Jun-14

84.80

84.40

86.10

82.54

89.80

86.83

90.60

89.57

93.60

88.04

Thu 12-Jun-14

86.10

87.14

86.30

84.73

91.30

88.58

89.80

90.68

95.40

89.01

Thu 19-Jun-14

88.80

87.87

89.70

86.27

93.50

88.82

90.50

91.88

97.40

90.68

Thu 26-Jun-14

87.20

85.34

88.00

82.13

92.30

86.41

87.70

89.10

95.80

89.24

Thu 03-Jul-14

85.20

83.69

86.20

81.51

91.00

83.83

86.10

87.49

92.60

84.50

Thu 10-Jul-14

83.30

85.59

84.00

81.81

88.30

81.79

82.70

85.06

87.10

77.57

Thu 17-Jul-14

83.00

80.56

83.20

80.28

87.00

80.73

81.10

83.27

85.90

80.33

Thu 24-Jul-14

82.80

79.09

82.80

79.34

86.20

79.74

80.00

81.68

85.80

81.44

Thu 31-Jul-14

83.80

87.46

83.40

80.18

86.40

80.24

82.20

83.30

87.80

84.44

Thu 07-Aug-14

81.40

79.26

81.80

80.46

84.90

79.89

81.90

88.04

87.30

86.85

Thu 14-Aug-14

82.60

77.16

82.40

79.65

84.90

78.55

84.30

84.66

87.00

84.17

Thu 21-Aug-14

81.90

79.42

81.70

79.51

83.90

81.73

81.80

85.88

86.20

87.20

Thu 28-Aug-14

83.10

78.90

82.80

80.35

84.40

80.39

82.90

83.88

86.70

83.98

Thu 04-Sep-14

83.10

80.84

83.70

79.15

84.90

82.42

84.60

83.78

87.50

82.30

Thu 11-Sep-14

81.50

76.41

81.80

76.36

81.60

81.51

83.70

81.38

84.00

76.59

Thu 18-Sep-14

80.60

77.81

80.50

74.98

80.70

79.17

81.60

80.84

82.80

71.42

Thu 25-Sep-14

83.60

78.95

83.50

80.27

83.20

82.88

82.40

84.63

81.10

74.90

Thu 02-Oct-14

81.10

79.27

80.70

78.81

80.80

77.62

80.70

77.68

79.00

70.20

Thu 09-Oct-14

76.90

79.26

76.00

68.83

75.10

72.60

76.90

75.00

73.00

62.09

Thu 16-Oct-14

72.80

80.09

71.40

71.13

70.90

73.39

71.60

77.11

68.80

60.12

Thu 23-Oct-14

73.00

79.88

71.20

68.07

71.40

73.20

71.00

84.35

68.90

61.00

Thu 30-Oct-14

72.80

67.77

72.30

68.97

73.10

71.65

70.00

74.62

71.90

62.09

Thu 06-Nov-14

68.60

67.60

68.40

68.48

69.50

72.40

70.10

69.67

71.40

67.60

Thu 13-Nov-14

69.50

65.75

69.90

65.51

70.50

69.41

69.90

62.53

74.60

68.81

Thu 20-Nov-14

68.20

65.89

68.10

64.70

68.40

70.32

65.70

62.55

70.30

64.40

Thu 27-Nov-14

67.50

65.06

67.70

65.72

68.10

70.63

63.70

62.26

65.70

59.13

Thu 04-Dec-14

61.90

58.14

62.40

58.98

62.70

62.97

59.20

56.59

60.20

51.92

Thu 11-Dec-14

55.60

52.87

57.20

53.75

57.10

58.20

55.70

53.10

54.70

44.73

Thu 18-Dec-14

53.90

50.11

55.60

52.37

55.80

56.36

52.20

48.09

54.70

42.88

Thu 25-Dec-14

54.20

51.09

55.70

52.54

56.30

57.54

52.10

47.32

55.20

44.15

Thu 01-Jan-15

50.20

45.88

51.30

47.82

51.70

52.04

47.20

42.25

51.20

41.16

Thu 08-Jan-15

46.90

43.19

50.60

44.81

47.30

48.09

45.00

42.87

48.50

40.72

Thu 15-Jan-15

46.60

42.30

50.30

43.50

47.20

46.68

44.20

43.28

47.00

37.04

Thu 22-Jan-15

47.20

45.26

50.50

45.67

47.20

49.64

43.90

45.92

47.00

39.15

Thu 29-Jan-15

48.20

47.00

51.00

48.37

48.00

50.44

48.40

48.80

48.80

42.85

Thu 05-Feb-15

52.90

50.65

54.60

51.75

52.20

54.13

52.10

53.44

54.60

50.12

Thu 12-Feb-15

56.20

53.56

57.40

54.19

55.40

57.51

56.70

56.48

59.40

53.76

Thu 19-Feb-15

55.60

55.91

57.70

54.23

55.40

58.78

54.70

60.87

60.40

57.33

Thu 26-Feb-15

60.80

57.71

62.30

58.17

60.20

62.69

58.60

65.23

70.30

68.96

Thu 05-Mar-15

61.20

56.75

63.80

57.62

61.20

62.49

56.30

65.32

71.60

63.08

Thu 12-Mar-15

59.30

55.45

62.70

56.74

62.36

62.36

58.20

63.71

66.40

59.34

Thu 19-Mar-15

57.90

54.71

61.40

55.89

58.30

60.60

63.00

63.29

65.20

59.76

Thu 26-Mar-15

58.10

58.24

62.00

57.84

58.90

60.60

60.10

64.71

66.30

63.29

Thu 02-Apr-15

59.60

58.97

63.70

57.44

60.80

58.31

57.10

59.91

66.20

59.80

Thu 09-Apr-15

59.60

54.12

60.70

58.63

57.80

60.01

55.90

58.28

63.30

59.94

Thu 16-Apr-15

62.10

63.74

65.30

63.38

63.10

63.81

59.20

63.94

68.60

64.41

Thu 23-Apr-15

60.70

64.33

64.20

62.59

62.20

64.43

57.80

63.33

68.60

66.20

Thu 30 Apr-15

61.70

65.85

64.70

63.49

63.50

65.56

57.40

65.51

72.60

70.92

Thu 7 May-15

63.50

63.07

66.60

61.79

65.20

63.39

60.20

63.71

73.80

67.87

Thu 14 May-15

63.30

65.00

66.20

64.04

65.20

65.64

60.70

66.92

72.90

70.76

Thu 21-May-15

66.80

64.92

69.10

64.28

68.40

64.92

65.00

67.13

75.70

72.83

Thu 28-May-15

65.70

63.55

68.50

63.23

67.90

64.52

62.90

69.68

74.60

70.32

Thu 04-Jun-15

69.00

66.58

71.90

64.27

71.40

66.25

68.20

72.51

71.20

70.54

Thu 11-Jun-15

71.00

69.89

73.30

69.08

73.70

71.22

72.40

78.00

79.90

78.13

Thu 18-Jun-15

70.30

68.14

72.70

67.49

73.80

69.44

71.70

74.98

81.20

78.24

Thu 25-Jun-15

68.90

65.15

71.20

64.18

72.90

66.12

69.00

71.60

78.60

75.15

Thu 02-Jul-15

70.50

65.89

72.40

65.23

74.20

66.54

68.90

73.39

76.80

73.39

Thu 9-Jun-15

72.30

69.94

73.70

68.60

74.70

68.26

77.90

78.01

77.80

79.02

Thu 16-Jul-15

73.80

65.29

75.60

64.60

76.60

65.97

80.30

86.48

81.90

76.57

Sources: NRCan, Bloomberg Oil Buyers Guide

Gasoline Refining and Marketing Margins

Four-week rolling averages are used for gasoline refining and marketing margins.

These gasoline refining margins refer to the difference between the cost of crude oil and the wholesale price at which the refiner can sell gasoline. The margin includes the cost associated with refining the product as well as a profit for the retailer.

The gasoline marketing margins represent the difference between the wholesale and retail prices of gasoline. This margin pays for the costs associated with operating a service station.

Gasoline refining margins have been trending upwards in all of the major Canadian markets shown below. In recent weeks, crude oil prices have declined more than wholesale gasoline prices, resulting in stronger refining margins.

Nationally, the four-week rolling average ending July 21, 2015 was 28.6 cents per litre, an increase of more than 2 cents over the past two weeks. Compared to the same time last year, margins in Canada are almost 10 cents per litre higherr.

Canadian marketing margins have been fairly stable over the past two weeks, averaging 10.4 cents per litre.

Figure 5

These graphs show the trend in refining and marketing costs and margins for selected centres in Canada and the national average.

4-week rolling average

Canada

Vancouver

Calgary

Toronto

Montreal

Halifax

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

Marketing Margin

Refining Margin

2013-01-01

6.2

18.6

2.8

25.9

6.1

23.1

7.1

28.9

3.6

7.3

7.7

5.6

2013-01-08

6.4

19.0

2.7

24.5

6.0

19.8

7.1

27.6

4.4

8.0

7.5

6.6

2013-01-15

6.5

17.5

3.5

22.2

5.9

16.3

6.8

25.5

4.6

8.2

8.5

7.2

2013-01-22

6.9

15.6

4.4

20.2

6.3

14.3

7.0

23.9

5.5

8.3

8.5

7.6

2013-01-29

6.9

15.0

4.2

16.8

5.8

11.0

6.5

20.7

7.7

8.4

7.6

7.9

2013-02-05

7.0

14.6

4.2

18.2

6.4

12.3

6.8

21.1

8.1

9.5

7.1

9.2

2013-02-12

6.8

16.2

3.4

22.2

6.4

16.1

6.9

23.6

7.8

9.4

7.1

9.1

2013-02-19

6.4

18.5

2.4

25.6

6.2

19.9

6.8

25.7

7.0

11.0

7.4

10.8

2013-02-26

6.6

20.8

3.4

31.1

6.3

26.0

7.0

30.0

6.3

13.7

8.6

13.6

2013-03-05

6.7

22.7

4.7

32.0

5.2

27.8

7.0

30.1

6.7

13.9

9.3

14.0

2013-03-12

6.8

23.3

5.8

32.1

4.7

28.9

7.1

29.7

6.8

14.3

9.0

14.6

2013-03-19

7.2

23.1

7.0

31.5

5.1

29.1

7.4

29.4

6.8

12.3

9.1

12.8

2013-03-26

7.5

21.7

7.3

27.8

6.0

26.5

7.8

26.4

6.7

12.3

9.0

12.9

2013-04-02

7.1

20.9

6.9

26.5

6.4

25.8

7.5

25.6

5.2

12.6

8.4

12.9

2013-04-09

7.3

19.4

6.8

24.2

7.4

23.6

6.8

24.1

5.7

13.2

9.2

12.6

2013-04-16

7.8

17.9

6.9

22.7

7.7

21.6

6.7

22.2

7.2

11.6

10.1

10.5

2013-04-23

7.9

17.6

7.0

23.6

7.3

22.4

6.6

22.5

8.4

12.6

9.5

11.1

2013-04-30

8.2

17.6

7.2

24.1

7.4

22.9

6.8

22.2

9.5

12.2

9.2

10.6

2013-05-07

7.8

17.9

6.8

24.4

5.6

23.0

6.9

20.1

9.9

12.1

8.3

10.3

2013-05-14

7.4

19.2

6.7

27.0

4.4

25.1

6.9

19.3

10.2

12.4

7.8

10.2

2013-05-21

6.6

20.7

6.3

29.2

4.1

28.2

7.0

19.6

7.7

13.4

7.6

10.7

2013-05-28

6.7

21.3

6.3

31.3

5.4

32.2

7.0

20.8

6.9

13.8

8.1

10.9

2013-06-04

7.0

22.6

6.6

31.4

7.2

35.6

7.2

22.0

6.3

13.7

8.4

11.2

2013-06-11

7.3

23.3

6.8

29.9

8.5

36.8

7.2

22.9

6.4

13.9

8.1

11.8

2013-06-18

8.5

22.7

7.5

29.4

9.9

36.5

7.4

23.5

9.0

13.0

8.2

11.5

2013-01-01

6.2

18.6

2.8

25.9

6.1

23.1

7.1

28.9

3.6

7.3

7.7

5.6

2013-01-08

6.4

19.0

2.7

24.5

6.0

19.8

7.1

27.6

4.4

8.0

7.5

6.6

2013-01-15

6.5

17.5

3.5

22.2

5.9

16.3

6.8

25.5

4.6

8.2

8.5

7.2

2013-01-22

6.9

15.6

4.4

20.2

6.3

14.3

7.0

23.9

5.5

8.3

8.5

7.6

2013-01-29

6.9

15.0

4.2

16.8

5.8

11.0

6.5

20.7

7.7

8.4

7.6

7.9

2013-02-05

7.0

14.6

4.2

18.2

6.4

12.3

6.8

21.1

8.1

9.5

7.1

9.2

2013-02-12

6.8

16.2

3.4

22.2

6.4

16.1

6.9

23.6

7.8

9.4

7.1

9.1

2013-02-19

6.4

18.5

2.4

25.6

6.2

19.9

6.8

25.7

7.0

11.0

7.4

10.8

2013-02-26

6.6

20.8

3.4

31.1

6.3

26.0

7.0

30.0

6.3

13.7

8.6

13.6

2013-03-05

6.7

22.7

4.7

32.0

5.2

27.8

7.0

30.1

6.7

13.9

9.3

14.0

2013-03-12

6.8

23.3

5.8

32.1

4.7

28.9

7.1

29.7

6.8

14.3

9.0

14.6

2013-03-19

7.2

23.1

7.0

31.5

5.1

29.1

7.4

29.4

6.8

12.3

9.1

12.8

2013-03-26

7.5

21.7

7.3

27.8

6.0

26.5

7.8

26.4

6.7

12.3

9.0

12.9

2013-04-02

7.1

20.9

6.9

26.5

6.4

25.8

7.5

25.6

5.2

12.6

8.4

12.9

2013-04-09

7.3

19.4

6.8

24.2

7.4

23.6

6.8

24.1

5.7

13.2

9.2

12.6

2013-04-16

7.8

17.9

6.9

22.7

7.7

21.6

6.7

22.2

7.2

11.6

10.1

10.5

2013-04-23

7.9

17.6

7.0

23.6

7.3

22.4

6.6

22.5

8.4

12.6

9.5

11.1

2013-04-30

8.2

17.6

7.2

24.1

7.4

22.9

6.8

22.2

9.5

12.2

9.2

10.6

2013-05-07

7.8

17.9

6.8

24.4

5.6

23.0

6.9

20.1

9.9

12.1

8.3

10.3

2013-05-14

7.4

19.2

6.7

27.0

4.4

25.1

6.9

19.3

10.2

12.4

7.8

10.2

2013-05-21

6.6

20.7

6.3

29.2

4.1

28.2

7.0

19.6

7.7

13.4

7.6

10.7

2013-05-28

6.7

21.3

6.3

31.3

5.4

32.2

7.0

20.8

6.9

13.8

8.1

10.9

2013-06-04

7.0

22.6

6.6

31.4

7.2

35.6

7.2

22.0

6.3

13.7

8.4

11.2

2013-06-11

7.3

23.3

6.8

29.9

8.5

36.8

7.2

22.9

6.4

13.9

8.1

11.8

2013-06-18

8.5

22.7

7.5

29.4

9.9

36.5

7.4

23.5

9.0

13.0

8.2

11.5

2013-10-22

7.3

13.2

5.9

18.8

7.3

20.0

7.4

18.8

6.9

5.1

6.8

6.3

2013-10-29

7.3

13.9

5.7

18.1

7.8

20.1

6.9

19.1

7.6

5.1

6.7

6.3

2013-11-05

7.8

13.6

5.9

18.8

8.9

21.3

7.2

20.8

8.4

5.7

7.3

6.9

2013-11-12

7.8

14.5

6.0

18.5

9.5

21.2

7.4

21.2

7.6

6.0

7.4

7.0

2013-11-19

7.6

16.2

6.1

21.9

7.7

24.7

7.3

25.6

8.3

5.9

6.6

7.0

2013-11-26

7.6

17.8

5.8

23.7

7.2

26.9

7.9

28.3

8.8

6.8

6.6

7.8

2013-12-03

7.0

19.9

4.9

24.8

6.1

28.1

7.7

30.5

7.3

5.9

6.1

6.9

2013-12-10

7.3

20.2

4.5

24.3

6.1

27.8

7.9

30.9

8.3

6.2

6.9

7.0

2013-12-17

7.8

18.9

4.3

22.2

8.2

24.6

7.8

28.9

8.0

6.1

8.0

6.4

2013-12-24

7.2

18.4

4.7

22.3

7.6

22.9

7.7

28.5

5.6

6.8

7.6

6.5

2013-12-31

7.5

18.1

4.0

21.0

7.5

20.0

6.8

26.3

5.6

8.2

6.9

7.3

2014-01-07

7.7

16.4

5.2

20.8

7.6

18.6

7.4

25.3

4.7

8.1

6.3

7.4

2014-01-14

7.3

16.7

5.5

21.2

6.8

19.7

7.6

25.6

4.1

8.7

5.8

8.1

2014-01-21

7.9

16.3

5.2

20.1

7.0

19.4

7.6

24.3

6.4

8.1

6.6

7.7

2014-01-28

7.9

15.6

6.6

20.1

6.7

20.1

8.7

24.1

7.8

6.9

7.4

6.7

2014-02-04

7.6

16.1

5.5

20.0

6.7

21.3

8.0

24.2

8.2

6.5

8.1

6.7

2014-02-11

7.3

16.4

5.0

16.9

6.1

18.0

8.0

20.7

7.8

6.5

7.6

7.3

2014-02-18

7.0

15.0

4.6

16.4

6.7

17.7

7.9

20.3

6.6

7.2

7.6

8.7

2014-02-25

6.5

14.3

4.3

12.5

6.5

14.3

7.8

16.8

5.1

8.2

7.4

10.2

2014-03-04

6.3

14.1

4.0

11.8

6.7

13.3

7.2

15.0

5.0

9.1

7.4

11.6

2014-03-11

6.7

12.6

4.7

14.0

7.3

16.0

7.1

16.0

5.3

9.1

8.8

11.2

2014-03-18

7.1

13.3

5.9

15.3

6.5

17.9

7.6

15.7

6.3

8.5

9.6

10.4

2014-03-25

7.7

14.3

6.8

19.7

7.4

22.1

7.8

18.0

6.6

8.4

9.6

9.7

2014-04-01

8.1

15.1

8.3

21.5

7.3

24.1

8.4

18.9

7.0

8.4

9.4

8.7

2014-04-08

8.1

16.6

8.3

22.4

8.1

24.5

8.5

19.0

6.8

9.5

8.4

9.3

2014-04-15

7.8

18.2

8.5

23.7

9.0

24.9

8.4

20.3

5.8

11.1

7.1

11.0

2014-04-22

7.8

18.9

8.6

24.4

8.5

25.2

8.6

21.3

5.7

11.5

7.2

12.1

2014-04-29

8.0

20.0

8.7

26.0

9.3

26.1

8.7

23.0

5.9

12.2

8.2

13.2

2014-05-06

8.4

20.3

9.0

26.7

9.6

26.3

8.8

23.7

6.4

12.3

9.4

14.0

2014-05-13

8.7

19.8

8.4

27.4

9.9

26.0

8.5

23.5

7.4

11.5

10.0

13.3

2014-05-20

8.6

19.6

8.1

27.2

9.7

25.2

8.2

22.9

8.0

11.0

9.6

12.3

2014-05-27

8.0

19.4

7.7

27.2

7.9

24.8

7.8

22.5

8.0

10.8

8.4

12.1

2014-06-03

7.7

18.8

7.4

26.4

7.4

23.9

7.7

21.4

8.1

10.6

8.1

11.3

2014-06-10

7.4

19.4

7.3

26.4

6.9

24.3

7.6

22.0

7.7

11.2

7.8

11.3

2014-06-17

7.3

19.8

7.1

26.9

6.8

24.7

7.3

23.0

7.6

10.8

7.7

10.7

2014-06-24

7.8

19.9

7.3

28.5

8.6

25.7

7.7

24.8

7.6

11.0

8.0

10.5

2014-07-01

7.8

20.7

6.9

29.1

9.3

25.1

7.3

25.8

6.9

11.3

7.8

10.7

2014-07-08

8.2

20.0

7.7

28.0

10.0

24.0

7.7

25.6

7.1

10.8

8.2

10.3

2014-07-15

8.6

19.4

7.6

27.9

11.4

23.8

7.8

26.4

6.9

12.2

8.9

11.6

2014-07-22

8.4

19.0

7.3

26.2

11.2

22.4

7.1

25.6

7.2

11.6

8.7

11.3

2014-07-29

8.3

18.4

7.9

25.1

9.9

22.0

7.4

25.2

7.1

11.1

8.3

11.0

2014-08-05

7.9

18.2

7.6

24.6

8.9

21.6

7.2

24.4

7.2

10.4

8.1

10.4

2014-08-12

8.0

18.4

8.1

25.1

9.7

21.8

7.3

24.4

7.8

10.3

7.6

10.5

2014-08-19

8.6

17.8

8.3

25.2

10.5

22.3

7.3

24.2

7.0

10.1

7.8

10.4

2014-08-26

8.6

18.6

8.1

25.9

11.4

23.4

6.9

24.5

7.5

11.3

7.2

11.6

2014-09-02

8.4

19.5

7.9

26.6

11.8

24.5

6.8

24.7

7.4

12.2

7.0

12.5

2014-09-09

8.5

19.6

7.6

26.4

10.1

25.2

7.1

24.1

7.6

13.4

7.5

13.3

2014-09-16

8.0

20.1

8.2

25.4

8.5

25.4

7.6

22.9

7.7

13.4

7.8

13.3

2014-09-23

8.2

19.3

8.3

24.1

7.8

24.8

8.0

21.8

7.8

13.8

8.1

13.7

2014-09-30

8.1

19.2

8.6

22.2

7.5

24.4

7.9

21.6

7.3

14.3

8.0

14.2

2014-10-07

8.4

18.1

9.2

20.2

9.2

23.7

7.6

20.8

7.2

14.5

8.9

14.9

2014-10-14

8.8

17.0

8.6

17.9

11.0

22.1

7.7

19.2

8.0

13.2

9.6

13.9

2014-10-21

9.2

15.7

9.2

17.7

12.4

23.0

7.7

20.4

8.8

14.5

9.3

15.4

2014-10-28

9.6

13.4

8.5

16.5

13.8

21.1

8.0

18.8

9.2

12.5

9.6

13.5

2014-11-04

9.3

15.2

8.1

18.5

12.3

22.2

8.4

19.9

9.4

11.5

8.9

12.3

2014-11-11

9.2

16.2

8.3

19.7

10.5

21.9

8.7

20.2

9.9

10.6

7.5

11.1

2014-11-18

9.2

16.4

8.4

22.4

10.7

22.9

8.8

21.4

9.1

11.0

8.5

11.3

2014-11-25

9.2

16.8

9.4

22.7

10.9

22.7

8.7

21.4

9.4

10.8

8.3

11.0

2014-12-02

9.4

16.8

9.4

22.9

11.8

22.4

8.8

22.2

9.1

13.1

8.5

12.9

2014-12-09

9.7

15.7

9.9

19.4

13.2

19.6

8.8

20.1

8.9

11.5

9.4

11.1

2014-12-16

9.5

14.2

9.5

19.2

12.5

20.2

8.5

20.9

9.1

12.5

9.3

11.7

2014-12-23

9.4

13.8

9.5

18.3

11.8

19.4

8.8

20.1

9.1

11.9

9.0

10.4

2014-12-30

9.6

12.9

9.8

17.5

11.8

18.4

8.9

19.0

9.7

10.3

9.0

8.9

2015-01-06

9.4

12.5

9.7

18.1

11.3

18.3

9.1

18.9

8.8

11.2

9.0

9.0

2015-01-13

9.6

13.0

10.1

17.6

10.7

17.1

9.4

17.8

8.9

11.6

9.0

8.9

2015-01-20

9.5

12.9

9.9

17.1

10.9

16.7

9.4

17.1

8.3

12.1

8.8

9.0

2015-01-27

8.7

13.9

9.4

17.2

8.9

17.4

9.3

17.0

7.0

12.7

7.9

9.2

2015-02-03

7.6

16.1

8.6

18.9

7.5

19.3

8.5

18.3

5.7

14.0

6.1

11.0

2015-02-10

7.5

17.2

8.6

19.3

7.6

19.6

8.6

18.0

5.5

11.8

5.4

9.4

2015-02-17

7.6

18.0

9.3

21.9

7.6

21.9

9.0

19.4

5.3

12.5

5.8

10.6

2015-02-24

7.8

18.5

10.1

23.7

8.6

22.5

9.3

20.0

5.0

12.0

6.2

10.4

2015-03-03

9.5

19.1

11.3

27.3

10.8

23.7

10.2

21.7

7.7

13.2

7.7

11.6

2015-03-10

9.5

20.2

10.5

30.6

11.0

24.4

10.1

23.6

7.3

14.5

8.9

12.6

2015-03-17

9.4

20.9

9.7

32.1

9.7

24.7

9.6

24.4

8.3

15.8

9.9

13.4

2015-03-24

9.5

22.6

8.2

34.7

9.2

27.1

8.6

26.2

9.2

16.8

10.3

13.9

2015-03-31

8.6

22.3

7.5

33.3

7.6

27.3

8.0

25.7

8.4

17.3

10.9

13.9

2015-04-07

8.6

22.4

7.9

31.2

7.2

26.5

7.9

24.4

9.1

17.2

10.6

13.4

2015-04-14

8.7

21.9

8.3

30.1

7.4

25.1

8.1

23.5

9.2

17.1

10.6

13.2

2015-04-21

8.6

20.7

9.2

27.3

7.5

21.7

8.5

21.4

8.7

16.4

10.6

12.6

2015-04-28

8.8

20.0

9.0

27.3

7.8

19.6

8.4

21.2

8.6

16.0

10.6

12.3

2015-05-05

9.2

19.6

9.6

28.2

6.8

18.9

8.8

21.2

8.3

15.7

10.5

12.4

2015-05-12

9.3

19.2

9.7

29.7

7.9

19.0

8.8

21.8

7.8

15.8

11.0

12.5

2015-05-19

9.2

19.3

10.0

29.6

7.0

18.5

9.1

21.2

7.9

16.0

11.1

12.9

2015-05-26

9.0

20.1

10.3

30.0

7.1

19.7

9.0

21.9

7.9

17.0

10.6

14.0

2015-06-02

9.8

20.0

10.6

29.1

9.4

19.5

9.7

21.3

8.9

17.1

11.3

14.1

2015-06-09

9.9

20.7

10.0

29.6

9.9

20.9

9.6

22.4

9.2

18.2

10.9

15.4

2015-06-16

10.2

22.6

10.1

30.6

12.0

23.0

9.6

23.8

8.9

20.1

10.2

17.4

2015-06-23

10.2

23.5

9.4

31.3

12.3

24.0

9.7

24.4

8.7

20.7

10.6

18.1

2015-06-30

9.2

25.0

8.4

33.6

10.6

26.9

8.7

27.4

7.9

22.5

9.6

20.2

2015-07-07

9.4

26.1

9.2

34.1

10.5

28.1

9.1

28.7

8.2

23.3

8.4

21.1

2015-07-14

9.6

27.6

9.2

37.0

9.8

30.8

9.4

32.4

9.1

23.7

8.4

21.6

2015-07-21

10.0

28.6

10.3

37.8

6.9

31.5

9.8

33.3

9.7

23.7

8.4

21.4

Source: NRCan

Crude Oil Overview

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fall to near US$50 per barrel range as speculation of an eventual increase in Iranian exports exacerbates an already oversupplied market

For the two weeks ending July 21, 2015, prices for the three light crude benchmarks averaged between CAD$307.98 /m3 and CAD$466.65/m3 (US$47.49 and US$57.67 per barrel).

Canadian light crude oil prices at Edmonton decreased by CAD$117.54/m3 (US$ 6.72 per barrel) from two weeks ago, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by CAD$ 115.06/m3 (US$5.74 per barrel) and Brent decreased by CAD$ 15.68/m3 (US$3.77 per barrel).

The differential between Canadian light crude and WTI for the two weeks ending July 7 was CAD $27.10/m3, (US$ 4.12 per barrel), a decrease from the previous two weeks where it averaged CAD $36.58/m3 (US$3.13 per barrel). Meanwhile, for the same period, the differential between Canadian light crude and Brent was CAD $158.67/m3 (US$10.18 per barrel). This differential widened significantly from the previous two week period where it averaged CAD $56.81/m3 (US$7.23 per barrel).

The discount for Canadian heavy oil, as measured by the Western Canadian Select (WCS) price differential to WTI averaged CAD$32.90/m3 (US $14.21 per barrel) for the two weeks ending July 7.

Crude oil markets reacted negatively to the news that a framework for an Iran nuclear agreement had been reached, resulting in lower prices. Industry analysts noted that once sanctions are lifted, Iran’s oil exports could increase rapidly, adding barrels to a market that is already oversupplied.

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. inventories rose by 2.47 million barrels last week. This is contrast to analysts’ expectations of a 2.2 million barrel decrease. U.S. stockpiles, which are currently at 463.89 million barrels, remain almost 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of year..

Figure 6: Crude Oil Price Comparisons

Text version

Figure 6

This graph shows crude oil prices for Canadian Light Sweet, WTI, Brent and WCS. The average weekly prices for the period ending July 16, 2015, were $388.68/cubic metres, $418.61/cubic metres, $467.55/cubic metres and $300.45/cubic metres for the Canadian Light, WTI, Brent and WCS, respectively.