NEW POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL — STEVE SHEPARD: “A new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, conducted Thursday and Friday also found more voters would blame Republicans in Congress for the government shutdown, 41 percent, than would blame Democrats, 36 percent. Democratic and Republican voters, by wide margins, held the other side responsible. But more independents said they would blame Republicans, 34 percent, than Democrats, 27 percent.

“Yet the shutdown is no clean political win for Democrats. Americans don’t necessarily approve of the party’s strategy to insist on a legislative solution for undocumented immigrants brought here as children before voting to reopen the government. In fact, both parties’ immigration stances — Democrats’ efforts to protect the so-called Dreamers and Trump’s insistence on funding a border wall with Mexico — are viewed by voters as less important than keeping the government open.” http://politi.co/2BiUu28

Good Monday morning. SHUTDOWN, Day 3. The Senate is scheduled to vote at noon to fund the government through Feb. 8. It’s unclear whether the package has enough votes to pass.

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SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MITCH MCCONNELL (R-KY.) on the Senate floor last night: “However should these issues not be resolved by the time the funding bill before us expires on February 8, 2018, assuming that the government remains open, it would be my intention to proceed to legislation that would address DACA, border security and related issues. It is also my intention to take up legislation regarding increased defense funding, disaster relief, and other important matters.”

— McConnell allies note that the line “assuming the government remains open” is key. He wants to keep his word and that as long as the government is shut down, the Senate cannot move forward on an immigration bill.

BURGESS EVERETT, HEATHER CAYGLE and ELANA SCHOR: “But Democrats were not ready to call it a deal, even as McConnell implored the Senate to vote Sunday night to reopen the government. ‘The shutdown should stop today,’ he said. Schumer said further negotiations were needed and spurned McConnell’s request, pushing a vote until Monday, when hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed. ‘Talks will continue, but we have yet to reach an agreement on a path forward that would be acceptable for both sides,’ Schumer said. Aides expect the Monday vote to fail absent further progress between the two party leaders before then.

“The late-night exchange capped a furious round of negotiations Sunday between Schumer and McConnell, as well as a group of deal-making senators desperate to reopen the shuttered government. Senators from both parties took a proposal to the party leaders after the centrists met for 90 minutes on Sunday afternoon. Their proposal would reopen the government through Feb. 8 and have McConnell commit on the Senate floor to holding an immigration vote before that date — a commitment that McConnell approached but did not definitively agree to, in part because Republicans worry they could not complete an immigration debate before the next funding deadline.” http://politi.co/2Dt9Oit

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CAPITOL: “Fractious House Republicans rally behind Ryan on shutdown,” by Rachael Bade: “House Republicans have long said the issue of immigration would make or break Paul Ryan’s political future. So far, amid a government shutdown spurred by a partisan stand-off over Dreamers, the Wisconsin Republican is passing the test. Rank-and-file Republicans — including some of his fiercest critics on the right flank — are applauding Ryan’s unwavering position during the shutdown. His stance, in a nutshell: As long as the government’s closed, there will be no immigration negotiations.” http://politi.co/2ruBKwV

FROM 30,000 FEET — MICHAEL GRUNWALD: “How a Lopsided Shutdown Victory Could Set up a Fiasco: “The partisan showdown over the government shutdown, like so many similar battles in the last seven years, is a fight neither side wants to lose. But as Democrats learned at the start of this cycle of fiscal warfare, winning can have downsides, too. As President Donald Trump and congressional leaders strategize and demonize in pursuit of all-out political victory in 2018, they might want to remember what happened after President Barack Obama struck a lopsided deal with Republican leaders in 2011, amid a fight over spending.

“At first, Democrats celebrated their fleecing of the GOP. But the humiliating defeat ended up hardening Republican positions before the next battle, which nearly produced an economic catastrophe on Obama’s watch, and set the stage for the recurring crises that have driven budget policy every year since. In retrospect, some Obama aides wish they had struck a more balanced deal, or maybe no deal at all. Victory, they found, can be ultimately counterproductive, firing up the losing team—and, just as important, the losing team’s political base.

“‘As long as it’s the last deal you have to make, you can take everything,’ says Scott Lilly, a former Democratic budget staffer who is now at the Center for American Progress. ‘In this town, however, you usually need at least one more deal.’” http://politi.co/2DqXRG2

ON MESSAGE TO THE VERY END: Out of office response from Natalie Strom, White House assistant press secretary: “Unfortunately, I am out of the office today because congressional Democrats are holding government funding — including funding for our troops and other national security priorities—hostage to an unrelated immigration debate. Please contact Raj Shah, Hogan Gidley or Lindsay Walters for all media inquiries.”

NATIONAL PARKS MAY BE OPEN, BUT NOT THE BATHROOMS? — A Playbooker sent us pics of public restrooms on the National Mall closed because of the government shutdown. Pics:http://bit.ly/2mZVNyy … http://bit.ly/2Dq9Cww

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VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE is in Israel. His first event of the day is an official arrival ceremony with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, per pooler Peter Nicholas of the Wall Street Journal. NETANYAHU: “‘This is the first time I stand here where both leaders can say those three words, ‘Israel’s capital, Jerusalem.’ He went on to say, ‘I want to thank President Trump and you for that historic statement, which I know you supported and championed. I look forward to discussing with you, as we’ve just begun, how to further strengthen our remarkable alliance — it’s never been stronger — and how to advance peace and security in our region, which is our common aim.’”

PENCE: “‘It is my great honor on behalf of the President of the United States to be in Israel’s capital, Jerusalem.’ He went on to talk about the prospects for a Middle East peace deal. ‘In making his historic announcement on Dec. 6th, President Trump did so convinced that by recognizing Israel’s capital, Jerusalem, that we would create an opportunity to move on in good faith negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority on issues that can be discussed and President Trump truly believes can be resolved.’ He said he is ‘hopeful that we are at the dawn of a new era of renewed discussions to achieve a peaceful resolution to the decades-long conflict that has affected this region.’”

— NBC’S ANDREA MITCHELL asked Netanyahu about timing of moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. “We can do it by next week,” Netanyahu said.

— BLOOMBERG’SMARGARET TALEV asked if he was serious. “No, but we want to do it quickly,” he said.

FIRST MAR-A-LAGO, NOW DAVOS IN TRIP THREATENED — “Shutdown throws Trump’s Davos trip into doubt,” by Ben White: “President Donald Trump may not get to Davos after all. The Senate’s failure to reach a deal to reopen the federal government Sunday night threw Trump’s planned trip to the annual Swiss Alps schmooze-fest into question. Trump could still make the trip late in the week if the shutdown ends in time, two senior administration officials said Sunday. Trump is slated to speak toward the end of the summit, which begins Tuesday and runs through Friday. But plans for the entire Trump delegation are in flux. The Senate has another vote scheduled for Monday at noon to reopen the government but passage is not assured.

“Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was scheduled to fly out to Davos on Monday to lead a large administration delegation to the World Economic Forum annual meeting ahead of Trump’s arrival. But those plans were also being reconsidered late Sunday as the shutdown dragged toward its third day. Should the impasse last deep into the week, the entire trip could get canceled. ‘It would not look very good to have a bunch of senior people in Switzerland if the government is still shut down,’ a senior administration official said.” http://politi.co/2G3U8jC

FROM DAVOS PLAYBOOK — Ryan Heath, Florian Eder and Matt Kaminski: “Top Trump administration figures [expected] here this week are: Trump himself, of course; Rex Tillerson (State); Steven Mnuchin (Treasury); Robert Lighthizer (Trade); Rick Perry (Energy); Wilbur Ross (Commerce); Kirstjen Nielsen (Homeland Security); Elaine Chao (Transportation); and Alexander Acosta (Labor). Kevin McCarthy, the Republican majority house leader, is registered, along with Jared Kushner and Gary Cohn from the White House and Dina Powell, formerly of the White House. Anthony Scaramucci, the prodigal cousin from Queens who last year was a lone Trump world representative, is back too — though his bio fails to mention his 10-day stint in the White House last summer. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t like the heavy delegation, but overlooks that there are as many Democratic members of Congress and governors here as Republicans.” You can sign up for Davos Playbook – delivered free at 12:30 a.m. U.S. Eastern time each morning this weekhttp://politi.co/2G5Kqgm

THE BIG QUESTION — “A President Not Sure of What He Wants Complicates the Shutdown Impasse,” by NYT’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Maggie Haberman: “When President Trump mused last year about protecting immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children, calling them ‘these incredible kids,’ aides implored him privately to stop talking about them so sympathetically. When he batted around the idea of granting them citizenship over a Chinese dinner at the White House last year with Democratic leaders, Mr. Trump’s advisers quickly drew up a list of hard-line demands to send to Capitol Hill that they said must be included in any such plan. And twice over the past two weeks, Mr. Trump has privately told lawmakers he is eager to strike a deal to extend legal status to the so-called Dreamers, only to have his chief of staff, John F. Kelly, and senior policy adviser, Stephen Miller, make clear afterward that such a compromise was not really in the offing — unless it also included a host of stiffer immigration restrictions.

“As the government shutdown continued for its second day on Sunday, one thing was clear to both sides of the negotiations to end it: The president was either unwilling or unable to articulate the immigration policy he wanted, much less understand the nuances of what it would involve. Both sides have reason to be confused. Each time Mr. Trump has edged toward compromise with Democrats, he has appeared to be reined in by his own staff, which shares the hawkish immigration stance that fueled his campaign. And Republican leaders, bruised by past experience with a president who has rarely offered them consistent cover on a politically challenging issue, are loath to guess at his intentions.” http://nyti.ms/2Dx8tHK

WHAT TRUMP HAS BEEN UP TO — “Trump keeps low public profile during shutdown, but is ‘itching’ to be involved,” by Josh Dawsey and Ashley Parker: “Aides and advisers [have] reminded Trump of the perils of getting too deeply involved at this point, noting Congress is more unpopular than him and talking about some of the unpleasant experiences he has had negotiating with Capitol Hill. Privately, some of his closest advisers admit the president is an erratic dealmaker who can unexpectedly overturn negotiations like a flimsy coffee table. After the shutdown began, Trump suppressed his instincts and did not call Schumer, advisers said, and was buoyed by aides doing a full television blitz — a public strategy partially prepared by West Wing officials who were worried that Trump would be inclined to strike a deal quickly if the media coverage turned poor.

“While the president made a dizzying number of calls to former campaign aides, friends, White House staffers and legislative leaders, he has mainly sought updates. … As Trump has watched the nonstop television coverage of the shutdown, he has bounced from grousing to aides that he will be blamed for the shutdown, to asking aloud if he should try to end it, to saying Republicans are in a better spot than Democrats and citing polls that show as much. … Trump was determined to show he was working, posing Saturday for a photo behind his desk, wearing a white ‘Make America Great Again’ golf hat. To the click of cameras, he strode resolutely down the portico and even made a rare venture up to the office of White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders, where he addressed a coterie of top aides.” http://wapo.st/2mZA9uw

KNOWING STEPHEN MILLER — “Stephen Miller: Immigration agitator and White House survivor,” by WaPo’s Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey: “Stephen Miller, one of the few remaining original advisers to President Trump, invited a small group of writers and editors from Breitbart News to the White House last fall for a conversation on immigration. The conservative news website — headed at the time by another former White House adviser, Stephen K. Bannon — has been a steadfast cheerleader for Trump and his nationalist anti-immigration agenda. But Miller’s goal on this occasion was to sell the group on a compromise: a possible deal offering protections to the young undocumented immigrants known as ‘dreamers’ in exchange for tougher immigration provisions, such as an end to family-sponsored migration.

“The discussion quickly turned into a shouting match — an expletive-laden ‘blowup,’ according to one person familiar with the gathering. Another person described it as ‘just a fundamental disagreement within the movement.’The combative conversation illustrates Miller’s influential yet delicate role within the administration — a true believer in restrictionist immigration policies attempting to broker a historic deal on behalf of a president with similarly hawkish, but far more flexible, positions. Miller has also proven to be a rare, behind-the-scenes survivor in a White House roiled with firings and resignations over the past year.” With an on the record statement from Hope Hickshttp://wapo.st/2DzvCIF

W.H. REVOLVING DOOR — “McMaster makes his pick to replace Powell on the NSC,” by Annie Karni: “The White House has settled on a new deputy national security adviser to succeed Dina Powell, the inner-circle adviser who left the building last week — but while the title will match Powell’s, the role is expected to change. National security adviser H.R. McMaster has chosen Nadia Schadlow, a current member of the National Security Council and the lead author of the administration’s National Security Strategy, for the role of deputy national security adviser for strategy, according to multiple White House officials. But her new role has yet to be announced by the White House.

“In plucking Schadlow to succeed Powell, McMaster is making a switch that brings a longtime colleague with a rare academic background into President Donald Trump’s West Wing. … McMaster, a three-star Army general, has known and worked with Schadlow — whose background is in research, not government — for close to a decade. But Powell’s departure deprives McMaster of a close ally known for her unparalleled network of relationships both inside and outside the West Wing, according to White House aides and outside advisers.” http://politi.co/2F4nsVY

— “The decline and fall of Wilbur Ross,” by Axios’ Jonathan Swan: “Early in Trump’s presidency, Ross was his go-to negotiator, helming the administration’s trade talks with the Chinese. After a few months, though, Trump concluded he was doing a terrible job. In a series of Oval Office meetings about six months into his presidency, Trump eviscerated Ross, telling him he’d screwed up, and badly. ‘These trade deals, they’re terrible,’ Trump said, according to a source in the room for one of the meetings. ‘Your understanding of trade is terrible. Your deals are no good. No good.’

“Trump told Ross he didn’t trust him to negotiate anymore. Ross had tried in the early months of the administration, before Robert Lighthizer was confirmed as the U.S. Trade Representative, to take the lead on several crucial trade conversations. Once Lighthizer arrived there was a tussle for control over several issues. But after Ross botched — in Trump’s eyes — his dealings with China, he decided Lighthizer would be the lead negotiator on all trade issues.” http://bit.ly/2Dt9PDg

— @elianayjohnson: “A source I had contacted about something more important responded that not only has Wilbur Ross fallen asleep at every meeting he’s been in with source, but that he drools – and uses his tie to clean it up.”

BEHIND THE SCENES — “‘Defiance Disorder’: Another new book describes chaos in Trump’s White House,” by WaPo’s Ashley Parker: “In late July, the White House had just finished an official policy review on transgender individuals serving in the military and President Trump and his then-chief of staff, Reince Priebus, had agreed to meet in the Oval Office to discuss the four options awaiting the president in a decision memo.

“But then Trump unexpectedly preempted the conversation and sent his entire administration scrambling, by tweeting out his own decision — that the government would not allow transgender individuals to serve — just moments later. ‘Oh my God, he just tweeted this,’ Priebus said, according to a new book by Howard Kurtz, who hosts Fox News’s ‘Media Buzz’ There was, Kurtz writes, ‘no longer a need for the meeting.’ …

“Like the books that came before it, and almost certainly like the ones still to come, Kurtz’s book, ‘Media Madness: Donald Trump, The Press, And The War Over The Truth,’ offers a portrait of a White House riven by chaos, with aides scrambling to respond to the president’s impulses and writing policy to fit his tweets, according to excerpts obtained by The Washington Post.” http://wapo.st/2DmSLe1

Playbook Reads

PHOTO DU JOUR: A shutdown placard is seen at the entrance of the Liberty State ferry terminal as people look on in Battery Park on Jan. 21 in New York City. Despite the shutdown, the iconic landmark is being reopened. | Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

SUSAN GLASSER talks with historian WALTER RUSSELL MEAD in the latest “Global Politico” podcast: “A few months ago, the historian Walter Russell Mead got a text message out of the blue from an unknown number. It turned out to be White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. Bannon, not yet banished from Trump’s inner circle, had a surprising story to tell to the wonky scholar of American foreign policy: Mead, he said, was the reason that President Andrew Jackson’s portrait now occupied a controversial place of honor in President Trump’s Oval Office.” http://politi.co/2BjoPxs … Listen to the full podcasthttps://apple.co/2kAoZfH

DEEP DIVE — DAN DIAMOND — “The religious activists on the rise inside Trump’s health department: “A small cadre of politically prominent evangelicals inside the Department of Health and Human Services have spent months quietly planning how to weaken federal protections for abortion and transgender care — a strategy that’s taking shape in a series of policy moves that took even their own staff by surprise.

“Those officials include Roger Severino, an anti-abortion lawyer who now runs the Office of Civil Rights and last week laid out new protections allowing health care workers with religious or moral objections to abortion and other procedures to opt out. Shannon Royce, the agency’s key liaison with religious and grass-roots organizations, has also emerged as a pivotal player. ‘To have leaders like Roger, like Shannon, it’s so important,’ said Deanna Wallace of Americans United for Life, an anti-abortion group that was frequently at odds with the Obama administration. ‘It’s extremely encouraging to have HHS on our side this time.’

“But inside HHS, staff say that those leaders are steering their offices to support evangelicals at the expense of other voices, such as a recent decision to selectively post public comments that were overwhelmingly anti-abortion. ‘It’s supposed to be the faith-based partnership center, not the Christian-based partnership center,’ said a longtime HHS staffer, referencing the HHS Center for Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships led by Royce.” http://politi.co/2rucSFI

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MEDIAWATCH — GLENN GREENWALD PROFILE – “Does This Man Know More Than Robert Mueller? Glenn Greenwald’s war on the Russia investigation,” by Simon van Zuylen-Wood in NY Mag: “For the better part of two years, Greenwald has resisted the nagging bipartisan suspicion that Trumpworld is in one way or another compromised by a meddling foreign power. If there’s a conspiracy, he suspects, it’s one against the president; where others see collusion, he sees ‘McCarthyism.’ Greenwald is predisposed to righteous posturing and contrarian eye-poking — and reflexively more skeptical of the U.S. intelligence community than of those it tells us to see as ‘enemies.’

“And even if claims about Russian meddling are corroborated by Robert Mueller’s investigation, Greenwald’s not sure it adds up to much — some hacked emails changing hands, none all that damaging in their content, maybe some malevolent Twitter bots. In his eyes, the Russia-Trump story is a shiny red herring — one that distracts from the failures, corruption, and malice of the very Establishment so invested in promoting it. And when in January, as ‘Journalism Twitter’ was chastising the president for one outrage or another, Congress quietly passed a bipartisan bill to reauthorize sweeping NSA surveillance, you had to admit Greenwald might have been onto something.” http://nym.ag/2F0Rwl3

Playbookers

SPOTTED: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in first class eating chicken and watching a movie on his iPad on United flight 783 from LAX to IAD last night … Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) jogging in McLean yesterday morning on the main drag area on Chain Bridge Road … Donna Brazile shopping in NE DC’s Costco on Sunday afternoon — she was also later spotted at Lowe’s.

TRANSITIONS — RUBIO ALUMNI: Brooke Sammon has started at Firehouse Strategies. She most recently has been at API and is a former press secretary for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

BIRTHDAY OF THE DAY: Josh Earnest, former Obama White House press secretary now an NBC News political analyst, is 43. He’s celebrating with his family on the beach in Cancun, Mexico. A fun fact about Josh: “Spending much more time at home over the last year, my cooking skills have improved dramatically — aided by Blue Apron, Plated and my slow-cooker. I won’t be opening my own restaurant any time soon, but I have found a great deal of satisfaction in regularly preparing meals for family and friends. I’m looking to continue to hone these skills and expand my culinary repertoire in 2018.” Read his Playbook Plus Q&A:http://politi.co/2Do7llt

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The host of TYT Network's nationally-syndicated Bill Press Show (Monday-Friday from 7-9am ET), Press attends the daily White House press briefing and writes a weekly column for the powerhouse politics website The Hill.