I agree, Rich. Just for clarification: I wasn't trying to claim the British Isles as the home of L21. My view is that it is of continental origin. I was just trying to find some common denominator for the names listed. As you say, many of those currently listed as P312* may well become separated as further discoveries are made. However, I was intrigued that, with the facts as we know them, there was a potential 'west of the Pennines' link. It's worth remembering that the gap between surnames first evolving in Britain & the end of Brythonic rule in many areas wasn't that great, so may of us in the west of these isles may well be Brythonic.Cheers,Bob

It is well to keep in mind that our English P312* folks are only temporarily P312* pending the discovery of one or more new SNPs. For their presence to support an Isles origin for L21, one would have to demonstrate some sort of connection between them and L21, like a shared marker between P312 and L21....

I agree a with what you are saying above. You brought a P312* rationale into the discussion in this earlier post below.

I don't think it's likely that L21 was born in the Isles. That would mean its immediate antecedent went there as P312*, and we just don't see that much P312* in the Isles that could have developed clades parallel to L21.

P312* folks are brothers to L21 so where they are found is a consideration. Unfortunately, we do not know which P312* are closer related to L21.

U152, DF27, L238 and DF19 are also brothers to L21 along with P312*. From what we know, none is more closely related to the other than to another. Therefore, we should consider the placement of all the brothers. P312* (modern P312* that is) is no more important than the rest.

However, I think your additional clause is an important element in what you are pointing out and I couldn't agree more

Quote from: rms2

.... that could have developed clades parallel to L21.

It is very important as what we are looking for who is might be closely related to L21.

This is speculative logic on my part, but I think U152 is most important because his diversity is highest. He appears to be eldest brother. The father is more likely to have been from a location closest to the eldest son. That doesn't mean L21 is from that location, but that provides a certain probability gravity pulling L21's probable origin closer that direction. L21 and U152 aren't that much different in age and U152 is the eldest brother.

U152 is clearly not from England. U152 is clearly not from Spain. At least, that's what I think. That reduces the odds that L21 is from those places. I wouldn't rule those out yet for L21, though.

It is well to keep in mind that our English P312* folks are only temporarily P312* pending the discovery of one or more new SNPs. For their presence to support an Isles origin for L21, one would have to demonstrate some sort of connection between them and L21, like a shared marker between P312 and L21.

The Continent is the real matrix of P312 and its offspring and so is the likeliest place to look for the birthplace of L21.

For France and Iberia to surpass the Isles in variance, even just a little, given the overwhelming number of British Isles L21 haplotypes available relative to those from the Continent, is pretty amazing. The Isles, as isles at the northwestern extremity of Europe, have been on the receiving end of population movement from Europe to a much greater extent than they have provided the reverse. L21 haplotype variance in the Isles is likely relatively high because of that fact: they have received L21 from a number of sources and not just one.

That's why haplotype variance is tricky and cannot be relied on to indicate origin in and of itself. It has to be viewed in the context of other types of evidence, like that from archaeology, anthropology, history, and linguistics.

While I don't necessarily think L21 was born in the Isles, I do think that the higher diversity there is a product of its arrival shortly after its birth. By definition, islands have always been harder to conquer and while the isles have seen their fair share of invaders, the amount of waves is probably much less than in places like France.

Richard, RMS2 and Jean have all made the point that multiple waves into Iberia of L21 could have made it a pooling point and therefore the higher diversity can be accounted for in that way.

As I mentioned in a prior post, the number of long haplotypes we have is too low, and even by just adding 10 (20 to 30) the variance of Spain dropped below France (although the differences are insignificant.) Ulitimately, with more and more data, I think France's variance relative to Iberia's will increase. I just say that because we don't see a lot of different types (varieties) in Iberia. That's just anecdotal observation.

I think this information, might be the most important news of all. L21 seems top heavy in Spain... to the French side.

It is well to keep in mind that our English P312* folks are only temporarily P312* pending the discovery of one or more new SNPs. For their presence to support an Isles origin for L21, one would have to demonstrate some sort of connection between them and L21, like a shared marker between P312 and L21....

I agree a with what you are saying above. You brought a P312* rationale into the discussion in this earlier post below.

I don't think it's likely that L21 was born in the Isles. That would mean its immediate antecedent went there as P312*, and we just don't see that much P312* in the Isles that could have developed clades parallel to L21.

P312* folks are brothers to L21 so where they are found is a consideration. Unfortunately, we do not know which P312* are closer related to L21.

U152, DF27, L238 and DF19 are also brothers to L21 along with P312*. From what we know, none is more closely related to the other than to another. Therefore, we should consider the placement of all the brothers. P312* (modern P312* that is) is no more important than the rest.

However, I think your additional clause is an important element in what you are pointing out and I couldn't agree more

Quote from: rms2

.... that could have developed clades parallel to L21.

It is very important as what we are looking for who is might be closely related to L21.

This is speculative logic on my part, but I think U152 is most important because his diversity is highest. He appears to be eldest brother. The father is more likely to have been from a location closest to the eldest son. That doesn't mean L21 is from that location, but that provides a certain probability gravity pulling L21's probable origin closer that direction. L21 and U152 aren't that much different in age and U152 is the eldest brother.

U152 is clearly not from England. U152 is clearly not from Spain. At least, that's what I think. That reduces the odds that L21 is from those places. I wouldn't rule them out yet, though.

I'd look to DF27 instead of U152. DF27 and L21 from what I gather, are closer in age and have a heavier Atlantic distribution.

It seems to me that it is very possible that the subclades under P312 may have been all from one geographical area and, if we assume a young age (less than 30 yrs old) of first birth event causing a lower chance of mutations. U152 is also something to be considered.

To show some basic age info that would explain a massive Growth Spurt had to have occurred within a small number of generations with only one Modal change in CDYb that even isnt used to calculate Ages in the Age Estimator engine I use.

The number of generations between P312 and L21 appears to be small at around 14 Generations using Busby's Data.

I had a set of 67 Marker HTs from last July Edit: 'but I reran in the latest Age Estimator' (not using 17 multi-copy markers)N=976 P312 xU152 Generation Age = 121.1 One mutation difference of CDYb=38

N=584 U152 All Generations Age = 123.7 Has CDYb=37

From Mike's latest Oct Spreadsheet, likewise is small between L21 and DF13 at 111 marker level there is only 3.4 generations difference with a modal change on one STR allele value from CDYb 38 to 39. My manual calculation of years per mutation is about 103 years but with variance it could be 113.3 generations Max difference. Only the sum of variance divided by the sum of mutation rate affected age data.

I think the most telling thing is that the per head or percentage of L21xDF13 in the Celtic fringe of the isles is pracrtically nil while in France it was a respectable sized minority. To me it looks like the pre-Germanic population of the isles was a DF13 subset of a continental group.

The fact that what L21XDF13 and true P312** in the isles is in England and not the Celtic fringe is interesting. My primary suspicion is that it is late and most likely Norman in origin.

I think the most telling thing is that the per head or percentage of L21xDF13 in the Celtic fringe of the isles is pracrtically nil while in France it was a respectable sized minority. To me it looks like the pre-Germanic population of the isles was a DF13 subset of a continental group.

The fact that what L21XDF13 and true P312** in the isles is in England and not the Celtic fringe is interesting. My primary suspicion is that it is late and most likely Norman in origin.

I think this is possible, but almost anybody that thinks they are slightly different in the Isles thinks they are Norman. We can attribute a lot of things to the Normans. They may have been very, very mixed by the time they arrived as Anglo-Normans et al, including the Bretons, Flemish, etc. It doesn't mean that some of these things aren't Norman, I just don't know it helps us at all.

It can't, because there's now plenty of evidence that the "migration period" was something of a hoax, specifically in the context of the Germanic migrations.

IBD analyses of modern populations show clearly that Iberia was not affected by migrations from the northwest during the Roman Period (Ralph and Coop 2012).

Formal admixture analyses show the same thing, and indicate that the major movements of Northern Europeans into Iberia took place around 2,000 B.C. (Patterson et al. 2012). These were most likely the proto-Celto-Iberians from Central or West Central Europe.

Sure it does, but it's not very impressive, and the authors of the study actually focus on the low IBD sharing between Iberia and Italy with Germanic countries dating to the migration period.

And then, there's this...

Quote

It is important to point out that we are not detecting gene flow from Germanic peoples (Suevi, Vandals, Visigoths) into Spain even though it is known that they migrated into Iberia around 500 A.D. Such migration must have occurred based on the historical record (and perhaps is biasing our admixture date to be too recent), but any accompanying gene flow must have occurred at a lower level than the much earlier flow we have been discussing.

Patterson et al. 2012

So I'd say that the supposed massive Germanic migrations during the migration period are something of a hoax. It seems like the numbers of people involved were significantly smaller than has been suggested by many sources.

The proto-Celto-Iberian migrations (ie. Bell Beaker backflow) were much larger.

The genetic impact of the Germani was extremely varied by region. The key clue to how many arrived lies in language. Some places acquired a Germanic language, for example the Netherlands, England and Austria. That indicates mass migration. By contrast the Germanic takeover in Iberia just replaced one elite with another. The Visigothic kingdom did not change the language or religion. The Visigoths were hugely outnumbered by their subjects. Hard to say how many modern Iberians might have a little trace of Visigoth. Vanishingly few probably. It is the same picture in Italy.

This does not make the Migration Period a hoax. (By whom?) Ralph and Coop provide excellent evidence of Slavic expansion at this time. That was mass migration in all cases. Of course the entry of Slavs into Greece did not change the language, but it does seem to have left a significant genetic legacy in northern Greece.

... The Visigothic kingdom did not change the language or religion. The Visigoths were hugely outnumbered by their subjects. Hard to say how many modern Iberians might have a little trace of Visigoth. Vanishingly few probably. ...

I agree the Visigoth's genetic impact on Iberia was probably quite limited.

However, I think there was some. My wife grew up in Madrid so I've been to Spain several times. I'll never forget an evening at a "cave" (tavern) just off of Plaza Mayor. We were there early and the owner was there. He sang with an elderly patron and then the owner's family came in. His son and daughter were tall and danced flamenco style. Super great time. I can't handle sangria but I helped with the wine all I could.

They certainly looked like they could have been characters in the "Sound of Music." I was expecting their name to be "Von" something or another but they were Spaniards who's family was from there for as long as they knew. Their home was nearby the Plaza.

For the most part, most of the Spaniards seem to view Visigoths, Moors, Celtics, etc. as all extinct peoples. I did find a waiter from Galicia who felt he was a Celt and he was very, very proud of it (... see Sam, even in Spain Celticism is a big deal.) Of course, the Basques are viewed, and view themselves (from who I talked to) as distinct.

I read somewhere though that the fall of the Roman Empire barely expanded German at all and most modern Germanic areas had become so before the fall of the Roman borders. I heard that main exceptions were Britain and Bavaria.

I read somewhere though that the fall of the Roman Empire barely expanded German at all and most modern Germanic areas had become so before the fall of the Roman borders. I heard that main exceptions were Britain and Bavaria.

Dragging the subject firmly away from Bavaria and back to Iberia, IALEM did mention some Germani in Iberia before the Post-Roman period. Now I have forgotten the reference he gave me. Seemed very surprising.

I read somewhere though that the fall of the Roman Empire barely expanded German at all and most modern Germanic areas had become so before the fall of the Roman borders. I heard that main exceptions were Britain and Bavaria.

Dragging the subject firmly away from Bavaria and back to Iberia, IALEM did mention some Germani in Iberia before the Post-Roman period. Now I have forgotten the reference he gave me. Seemed very surprising.

Yeah I recall that too from books going back a long long time. I thought it was at one time considered that the Germani tribe were actually Celtic.