After Fidel, Raul

The permanent successor to Fidel Castro will be his brother, Raul, Bush administration officials have concluded, and he will be enthusiastically assisted by the cadre of “young technocratic communist professionals” who have run Cuba’s day-to-day government machine for decades.

The officials said in interviews that this layer of committed communists is a key reason that democracy is not likely to emerge in Havana soon after the dictator’s death. The 80-year-old Mr. Castro is said to be recovering from intestinal surgery. He turned power over to his brother on July 31.