As earnings season gets under way, negative earnings preannouncements are running at the highest level since 2009. Time for some upside surprises?

School's out and the report cards are on the way. More than a few parents have been warned that their kids' performances are falling short of expectations, so with Mom and Dad bracing for Cs and Ds, a B will be greeted like an A.

So it will be for the second-quarter earnings season, which begins in earnest Monday, when Alcoa (ticker: AA) will...