One
of the most intriguing is offered by philologist and blogger Nikolay
Podosokorsky who suggests that the Federation Council chairman’s words were a
trial balloon and that Moscow likely will move to join together some of the
smallest and weakest federal subjects in the near future (philologist.livejournal.com/8413828.html).

He argues that the Russian
authorities “even before any crisis are seized by ‘a mania of combining’
(according to the precise expression of philosopher Aleksandr Rubtsov): the
optimization of hospitals, schools, universities, libraries, museums, theaters
and other institutions.”

“At a higher (all-Russian level),”
Podosorkorsky suggests, “this mania is expressed in the fusion of institutions
at the federal level,” and “at the international level, in territorial
expansion (South Osetia, Abkhazia, Crimea and the Donbas).” Indeed, “one could
say that geopolitics in the heads of our leaders overwhelms everything else.”

Russian leaders, he says, “are
dissatisfied with any variety because where there is variety, there is always
the danger of competition, differences of opinion, the display of initiative
from below and the growth of centrifugal forces, and above all [the Russian]
powersfear this more than fire and
therefore strive to unify and amalgamate everything.”

“Undoubtedly,” the commentator
continues, “now the idea of liquidating a number of subjects of the federation
by joining them to others has economic causes.”But combining the federal subjects will save less money than most
imagine and may even end up costing the country even more.

However, the impulse to unite is
coming not just from above but is also being driven by demography: a large
share of the regions of Russia are losing population. Indeed, 40 regions,
according to Rosstat figures from earlier this year have lost significant
shares of their population since Vladimir Putin first became president.

Among the hardesthit have been Tula, Novgorod, Arkhangelsk,
Vladimir “and other oblasts of the Central and Northern portions of Russia plus
several regions in the Urals, Siberia, and the Far East, Podosorkovsky
says.All of these would be candidates
for amalgamation with their neighbors.

According to the blogger, among
those regions which have lost population to the point that they are likely to
fall below 500,000 residents and which do not have strategic importance for other
reasons are the very most likely candidates for amalgamation because they have
no other importance for the center except economics and the draft.

Podosorkovsky says that in his view,
Moscow will continue the liquidation of autonomous districts with the exception
of petroleum-rich Nenets and Yamalo-Nenets AOs and also will “unify a number of
oblasts like Novgorod.For the Kremlin,”
he says, “this will mean a reduction in expenses; for residents, a further
degradation of their territory.”

What makes his argument so
intriguing is that it points to the amalgamation of predominantly ethnic
Russian regions rather than the combination of non-Russian and Russian ones. If
he is right, then that would mean that the relative share of non-Russian
republics in the federal system would increase as the number of Russian regions
fell.

That seems almost unthinkable given
Putin’s values; but stranger things that this have happened – and it is worth
noting that this idea is out there.