Research on Standard of Acceptable Risk for High Arch Dam in Developing Countries

Abstract:

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It is proposed to make use of dam risk rate, economic loss risk value and life loss risk
value in evaluating the risk of high arch dam. The acceptable standards of risk for high arch dam in
the developing country should not be set too high,it should reflect the level of economic and
technology development, the policy for energy sources,the life value as well as the degree of the
importance attached. Based on study of the characteristics of high arch dam and by means of the
comparison of the levels of economic development, the life values and the degrees of the
importance attached between developing and developed countries, as well as the analogy analysis of
rare risk events occurring in developing countries, the reference value of the single high arch dam
acceptable risk rate, economic loss risk and life loss risk in developing countries are found to be
10 /(yr dam) 6 ⋅ − , 10000$/(yr ⋅ dam) and 0.001person/(yr ⋅ dam) respectively;a method is worked out for
determining the acceptable risk rate,the acceptable economic loss risk value and life loss risk value.

Abstract: In this paper, risk acceptability evaluation and risk weight and improved risk level were added in original risk matrix method according to its shortcomings and practicality and need of evaluation of investment risk in international engineering project. A model based on improved risk matrix method was put forward to evaluate investment risk in international engineering project. Firstly, investment risk evaluation index system of international engineering project was established. Secondly, level of risk factors were decided by risk impact level and risk probability scope, borda ordinal value was calculated to form judgment matrix, analytic hierarchy process was introduced to calculate risk weight. Synthetic risk level was determined by product of quantized value of risk level and corresponding risk weight. Risk acceptability evaluation was decided by risk impact level and risk probability scope. Finally, a case study was presented to verify the feasibility of the model which would provide a reliable basis for the investment decision.

Abstract: The cusp catastrophe theory was introduced to the evaluation of the global safety of a system of an arch dam and its foundation, and the relevant quantitative instability criterion was established. Based on the overload nonlinear FE analysis of a planned arch dam, the global safety degree of this arch dam was 2.75 according to the instability criterion of the cusp catastrophe model of plastic strain energy, and the evaluation result was in agreement with the transfixion criterion of the plastic yield area.

Abstract: In order to evaluate the risk degree of the tailings pond’s dam-break disaster reasonably, according to statistical analysis of the tailings pond’s dam-break failure and "the tailings major hazards classification method" of our country, the improved "index weight method" is worked out, and the index partition method and weight assignment of the "index weight method" are analyzed and researched detailed. Combining with an engineering example to verify the improved "index weight method", and the sensitivity of index weight is discussed. The results of the analysis show that "index weight method" for the judgment of the risk degree of the tailings pond’ s dam-break disaster is more reasonable. It is more feasible for safety department to make division of attention to supervision level of the tailings pond according to the determination results.