NBA Draft Lottery 2018: What Are Celtics’ Chances Of Landing Top 3 Pick?

by Darren Hartwell on Mon, May 14, 2018 at 1:47PM

It seems almost unfathomable, but the Boston Celtics have a shot at a top-three NBA Draft pick for third consecutive season. They’ll need a lot more luck this time around, though.

The Celtics swung a 2017 draft night trade with the Philadelphia 76ers that not only netted them Jayson Tatum, but also set them up to receive the Los Angeles Lakers’ 2018 first-round pick if it falls between No. 2 and No. 5.

We’ll find out where L.A. will pick Tuesday night at the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery, but the moment, that seems like an extreme long shot. The Lakers, who finished with the NBA’s 10th-worst record, have just a 1.3 percent chance of landing the No. 2 pick and a 1.58 percent chance at the No. 3 pick.

They have a zero percent chance of netting the Nos. 4 or 5 picks, which means Boston has a 2.88 percent chance of landing a top-three pick Tuesday night.

Chris Forsberg‏Verified account

@ESPNForsbergFollow Follow @ESPNForsbergMoreCeltics have only a 2.9% chance of securing the Lakers 2018 pick in tomorrow’s draft lottery if it vaults to spots Nos. 2 or 3.

That’s still better than the 2% chance Boston was given to make the NBA Finals in the immediate aftermath of Gordon Hayward’s injury.

The most realistic scenario is that Philly gets L.A.’s 2018 first-rounder, likely at No. 10 overall. But there’s still good news for the Celtics if that happens, as Boston would get the Sacramento Kings’ first-round selection in 2019, as long as it’s not the No. 1 overall pick.

A change to the NBA’s Draft Lottery rules could help the Celtics in that regard, as the league will adopt a new lottery format in 2019 that gives no team more than a 14 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick.

Put another way, if the C’s don’t secure the Lakers’ 2018 pick, they’ll have at least an 86 percent chance of acquiring the Kings’ 2019 pick.

Boston still will have a presence in Chicago for Tuesday’s lottery in the off chance of a miracle: Team president Rich Gotham will be in the main stage area, while assistant general manager Mike Zarren will be in the drawing room.

Mike Zarren‏

@mikezarrenFollow Follow @mikezarrenMoreWe have a 2.87% chance of getting pick 2 or 3. I've worn the same jacket to every Celtics home game since it replaced a smaller one when I was a kid. Never worn it anywhere else. Do I wear the jacket in the room with the ping-pong balls?Jacket to lotteryIt's for games only

Don’t worry, Celtics fans: The lottery starts at 7:30 p.m. ET and should end in plenty of time for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden.

wideclyde wrote:What happened to the idea that had the Cs with the Lakers pick if it was between 2 and 5?

The lottery only decides picks 1, 2 & 3. Once that is decided, picks 4 - 30 in the first round fall in order of wins and losses. LA is #10, I think, so they cannot end up at 4 or 5.

LA can end up 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 or 13. For them to fall to 11, one team behind them needs to get one of the first three picks. For them to fall to 12, two teams behind them need to get two of the first three picks, etc.

For LA to end up at pick 4 or 5, they would have had to start at 1, 2 or 3 and be pushed back by other teams behind them winning one of the first three picks.

Confusing to say the least. LA just didn't suck bad enough to start out at 1, 2 or 3 (worst records).

Looking at the chart BobH posted above, the LA pick has a 86.97% chance of staying at #10. They have a 8.8% chance of being pushed back one position to #11. They have a little better than 1% chance (each) at getting any of the first three picks (2 & 3 going to us). They have an infinitesimal chance to be pushed back two or three positions.