John Ross | The Guardianhttp://www.theguardian.com/profile/john-ross
Latest news and features from theguardian.com, the world's leading liberal voiceen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2015Tue, 31 Mar 2015 22:48:56 GMT2015-03-31T22:48:56Zen-gbGuardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. 2015The Guardianhttp://assets.guim.co.uk/images/guardian-logo-rss.c45beb1bafa34b347ac333af2e6fe23f.pnghttp://www.theguardian.com
David Cameron's humiliation in Beijing may yet serve a useful purpose | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/03/david-cameron-humiliation-beijing-china
China is now a great power and Britain is not – and the UK should stay out of that country's internal affairs<p>Rarely have the exaggerated pretensions of a British prime minister been so harshly and humiliatingly brought crashing to earth as with David Cameron's policy on China. China's leaders are too skilled in diplomacy to state it bluntly during <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2013/dec/02/david-cameron-china-uk-trade-video" title="">Cameron's current Beijing visit</a>, but the rest of the world, including numerous British commentators, knows exactly what has occurred.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/03/david-cameron-humiliation-beijing-china">Continue reading...</a>ChinaDavid CameronWorld newsUK newsAsia PacificPoliticsInternational tradeEconomicsGlobal economyBusinessTue, 03 Dec 2013 12:00:04 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/03/david-cameron-humiliation-beijing-chinaPool/REUTERSDavid Cameron meets Shanghai's mayor, Yang Xiong, during his Chinese trip. Photograph: Pool/REUTERSJohn Ross2013-12-03T12:00:04ZThe Tories will get 30.3% at the next general election. Here's why | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/05/tories-will-get-next-general-election
Eastleigh's result reflects the long-term trend of the party's postwar collapse back into its south-east heartland<p>Over the past few days a lot of &quot;lessons&quot; have been drawn from the Eastleigh byelection. Most are of no fundamental importance. The key fact is that the crushing defeat of the Tories is simply part of the trend of Tory electoral decline. This analysis also enables us to predict that the Tory party will get 30.3% of the vote at the next general election. The aim of this article is to explain why.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/05/tories-will-get-next-general-election">Continue reading...</a>ConservativesPoliticsSocietyEastleigh byelectionByelectionsGeneral election 2015LabourUK newsTue, 05 Mar 2013 09:00:03 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/mar/05/tories-will-get-next-general-electionChris Ison/PAMaria Hutchings stood for the Conservatives at Eastleigh and saw her party come in third after the Lib Dems and Ukip. Photograph: Chris Ison/PAChris Ison/PAMaria Hutchings stood for the Conservatives at Eastleigh and saw her party come in third after the Lib Dems and Ukip. Photograph: Chris Ison/PAJohn Ross2013-03-05T09:00:03ZWestern tales of China's imminent collapse are a bit rich | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/29/western-tales-china-collapse-bit-rich
If the EU or US had the kind of growth experienced by China, it would be termed an unparalleled success, not a crisis<p>For three decades, the gap between China's rapid economic growth and western economies' increasingly poor performance has widened. Throughout the 1980s, China's economy grew <a href="http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/2012/08/how-china-increased-its-lead.html" title="">on average</a> 6.7% a year faster than OECD economies. During the 1990s, the lead increased to 7.4% and since 2000, it has been 8.4%.</p><p>But with China's increasing lead in economic growth <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-08/03/content_26114793.htm" title="">came the claim</a> that its economy faced an imminent meltdown. As such claims clearly bore no relation to the facts, they functioned as propaganda. For this reason, they were particularly <a href="http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204358004577029972941870172.html?mod=googlenews_wsj&amp;mg=reno-hongkong-wsj" title="">emphasised</a> at various points during the western economic slowdown.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/29/western-tales-china-collapse-bit-rich">Continue reading...</a>ChinaAsia PacificWorld newsEconomicsBusinessUS economic growth and recessionEconomic growth (GDP)Global economyWed, 29 Aug 2012 08:11:39 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/aug/29/western-tales-china-collapse-bit-richMark/EPA'China’s economy is not in a crisis comparable to the west.' Photograph: Mark/EPAMark/EPA'China’s economy is not in a crisis comparable to the west.' Photograph: Mark/EPAJohn Ross2012-08-29T08:11:39ZChina's economic success sets an example to the rest of the world | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/13/china-economic-success-example-world
China has bucked the crisis with high investment and a strong state sector that could be replicated by western economies<p>Few things better illustrate the difference between the state of China's economy and that of the rest of the world than the fact that its<a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/13/china-economic-growth-slows-gdp" title=""> newly announced GDP growth figures</a> of 7.6% were analysed as a &quot;slowdown&quot;. In any other major economy this would have been considered blistering growth threatening overheating. Instead, it is clear China has room for further stimulus measures in the second half of the year.</p><p></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/13/china-economic-success-example-world">Continue reading...</a>ChinaAsia PacificWorld newsEconomicsBusinessEconomic policyPoliticsEconomic recoveryFri, 13 Jul 2012 16:08:47 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jul/13/china-economic-success-example-worldJason Lee/REUTERSChina, which combined expansionary monetary policy with an investment-led stimulus, has experienced more than 9% annual average growth throughout the four years of the financial crisis. Photograph: Jason Lee/REUTERSJason Lee/REUTERSChina, which combined expansionary monetary policy with an investment-led stimulus, has experienced more than 9% annual average growth throughout the four years of the financial crisis. Photograph: Jason Lee/REUTERSJohn Ross2012-07-13T16:08:47ZChina's economic stimulus offers Europe a lesson | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/may/30/europe-china-economic-stimulus
Chinese state action from the onset of the global crisis countered any investment decline. In the EU, it's a case of too little, too late<p>With world economic growth waning sharply, China is launching a new multibillion-dollar stimulus programme. In the first four months of 2012 its national development and reform commission approved 868 new investment projects. It speeded up this month, with more than <a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-05/29/content_15409129.htm" title="">100 approved</a> on 21 May alone. Simultaneously on the consumer side, subsidies for purchasing energy-saving products and a &quot;cash for clunkers&quot; programme were launched.</p><p>The full scale of stimulus is not yet announced – officially, China's premier Wen Jiaboa merely acknowledges <a href="http://www.china.org.cn/business/2012-05/21/content_25428566.htm" title="">new emphasis</a> on growth. It is neither required nor likely to be on the same scale as China's $586bn 2008 package launched to deal with the international financial crisis's onset. But what has started is a programme focused on state-led investment and consumption incentives running into many tens, or the low hundreds, of billions of dollars.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/may/30/europe-china-economic-stimulus">Continue reading...</a>EuropeChinaEconomic policyEuropean UnionGlobal recessionGlobal economyWorld newsAsia PacificEconomicsBusinessPoliticsWed, 30 May 2012 12:22:19 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/may/30/europe-china-economic-stimulusNir Elias/ReutersConstruction workers dismantle scaffolding from a bridge construction site in Shanghai, China. Photograph: Nir Elias/ReutersNir Elias/ReutersConstruction workers dismantle scaffolding from a bridge construction site in Shanghai, China. Photograph: Nir Elias/ReutersJohn Ross2012-05-30T12:22:19ZGeorge Osborne courts China – but does he have enough to offer? | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/16/george-osborne-china-currency-trading
Efforts to make the UK a currency trading centre are crucial, but China may not be so keen for a base in the troubled City<p>George Osborne's <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2087168/Osborne-wins-China-billions-City-Landmark-deal-eases-gloom-UK-growth.html?ito=feeds-newsxml" title="Mail: Osborne wins China billions for the City: Landmark deal eases gloom over UK growth ">deal to make the UK a major trading centre</a> for China's currency, the renminbi, demonstrates that the City of London is trying to retain its role as the offshore base for the world's reserve currency.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/16/george-osborne-china-currency-trading">Continue reading...</a>ChinaCurrenciesGeorge OsborneAsia PacificUK newsWorld newsForeign currencyConsumer affairsMoneyBusinessPoliticsMon, 16 Jan 2012 21:02:02 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jan/16/george-osborne-china-currency-tradingBobby Yip/ReutersGeorge Osborne at the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong January 16, 2012. Photograph: Bobby Yip/ReutersJohn Ross2012-01-16T21:02:02ZThe fallacy of Osbornomics | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jan/10/george-osborne-tories-deficit-cuts
Tories claim deficit reduction is the urgent task, when it was already falling without cuts in public spending<p>George Osborne claims budget deficit reduction is the most urgent task for overcoming Britain's economic problems. The facts disprove this. The US, which has made no serious deficit reductions, has suffered almost the smallest recession of any major developed economy. Countries seeking drastic deficit reduction, Ireland and Greece, have suffered the worst.</p><p>Along with refusing to consider the international economic facts, Osborne is trying to shift discussion from the actual budget deficit to an alleged &quot;structural deficit&quot; created by &quot;excessive&quot; increases in social spending and public investment under Labour. The <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/dec/14/retail-inflation-vat-price-rises" title="Guardian: VAT increase 'will hide price rises'">VAT increase</a> is to be permanent as it is &quot;a structural tax change to deal with a structural deficit and a structural increase in expenditure&quot;. This claim is made as Labour's stimulatory measures are leading to a reduction in the budget deficit.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jan/10/george-osborne-tories-deficit-cuts">Continue reading...</a>George OsbornePoliticsBudget deficitEconomicsBusinessUK newsConservativesMon, 10 Jan 2011 22:00:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/jan/10/george-osborne-tories-deficit-cutsJohn Ross2011-01-10T22:00:00ZThe currency war is phoney | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/14/currency-wars-dollar-renminbi-exchange-tarrifs
At the US recession's core is a collapse in investment. America should sort out its own economic policy, not attack China's<p>The core of the &quot;currency wars&quot; – in which China has been accused, primarily by the US, of undervaluing the renminbi to boost its exports – is a simple piece of arithmetic. The&nbsp;US has only a quarter of China or India's population.</p><p>America can remain the world's largest economy only if average Chinese or Indian living standards never exceed 25% of its own. As – rightly – China and India will never accept this, a peaceful global outcome therefore requires the US to abandon its undesirable and impossible goal.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/14/currency-wars-dollar-renminbi-exchange-tarrifs">Continue reading...</a>CurrenciesBusinessUS economyEconomicsUS newsChinaNancy PelosiWorld newsUS politicsAsia PacificThu, 14 Oct 2010 21:00:02 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/oct/14/currency-wars-dollar-renminbi-exchange-tarrifsJohn Ross2010-10-14T21:00:02ZElection 2010: Conservatives remain in long-term decline | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/05/conservative-victory-long-decline
The failure of the Tories to pull far ahead – and the Lib Dem surge – is best understood by looking at the long-term trends<p>Many commentators have expressed &quot;surprise&quot; at trends during the election – the failure of the Tories to stroll to easy victory, the Liberal Democrat surge etc. These are presented as due to &quot;unanticipated&quot; short-term events such as the first TV leaders debate. Such a view is wrong – as the figures below demonstrate.</p><p></p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/05/conservative-victory-long-decline">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010PoliticsUK newsConservativesLabourLiberal DemocratsPolitics pastWed, 05 May 2010 14:00:01 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/may/05/conservative-victory-long-declineJohn Ross2010-05-05T14:00:01ZNo secrets to China's success | John Rosshttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/aug/18/china-economic-growth
China's rapid growth is no accident: it has had the right policies both practically and from the viewpoint of economic theory<p>A major international debate has broken out on the success of China's economic stimulus package. Taking non-Chinese writers, <a href="http://ablog.typepad.com/keytrendsinglobalisation/" title="Key Trends in Globalisation">I am on one side</a> with <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd9b5a1e-2f9f-11de-a8f6-00144feabdc0.html" title="FT: China shows the world how to get through a crisis">Jim O'Neill</a>, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, <a href="http://dq6bn.blogspot.com/2009/07/time-to-save-world-economy-through.html" title="DQ – unplugged: Time to save the world economy">Professor Danny Quah</a> of the London School of Economics, <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/jul/23/china-us-trade-economic-stimulus" title="Guardian: China's economics lesson">Mark Weisbrot</a> and others who hold, naturally with differences on &quot;why&quot; and on scale, that China's package is being successful.</p><p>On the other side are the Guardian's <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/aug/17/china-economy-global-recession" title="Guardian: Leninist China faces its capitalist crisis">Larry Elliot</a>, Morgan Stanley's <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42d38b2c-7bd6-11de-9772-00144feabdc0.html" title="FT: I've been an optimist. But I'm starting to worry">Stephen Roach</a>, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/50179048-779f-11de-9713-00144feabdc0.html" title="FT: Brace for a decade of lower Chinese growth">Michael Pettis</a> of Peking University, <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c81651a-23a4-11de-996a-00144feabdc0.html" title="FT: What the G2 must discuss">Martin Wolf</a> of the Financial Times and others who consider, again with significant differences on why and scale, that China's economic strategy is wrong, its stimulus package is misconceived, or both, and therefore it will end badly.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/aug/18/china-economic-growth">Continue reading...</a>ChinaEconomicsGlobal recessionWorld newsBusinessAsia PacificTue, 18 Aug 2009 09:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/aug/18/china-economic-growthJohn Ross2009-08-18T09:30:00Z