The Southern Conference, once again, has been dominated by Davidson. The Wildcats haven’t been quite good enough to garner any at-large consideration, but the way they’ve run through the SoCon it shouldn’t matter. They have a 2 in 3 chance to head back to the NCAA Tournament. Should somebody stop them, it will have to be the College of Charleston, and they have a 20% chance to do so. Elon at 8% is the only other team with more than a prayer.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Davidson

92.6

84.8

67.2

3

College of Charleston

88.3

59.1

20.2

2

Elon

74.7

33.5

8.2

4

Appalachian State

52.9

6.6

1.5

10

North Carolina-Greensboro

57.0

28.6

3.4

0.8

6

Western Carolina

75.3

23.0

4.4

0.7

7

Chattanooga

43.0

18.5

2.2

0.6

5

Samford

76.6

10.4

2.4

0.3

8

Wofford

64.1

5.2

2.1

0.3

9

Georgia Southern

35.9

2.2

0.9

0.1

11

Citadel

24.7

2.3

0.6

0.1

12

Furman

23.4

1.3

0.0

0.0

Finally, we have a conference tournament with a little bit of intrigue in the MAAC. Iona, the 4-seed, is the favorite but has just a 27% chance to win the title. Five other teams have a better than 7% chance including the 7-seed, Fairfield, who has a 12% chance. I’m going to guess they are the most likely conference 7-seed to win their respective tournament.

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

4

Iona

56.1

39.1

26.7

1

Niagara

78.9

31.0

18.6

3

Loyola (MD)

68.1

38.8

16.5

5

Canisius

43.9

26.6

14.3

7

Fairfield

79.0

47.4

26.5

12.1

2

Rider

46.7

23.2

7.1

6

Manhattan

31.9

10.3

3.5

8

Marist

67.6

17.1

3.1

1.0

10

Saint Peter's

21.0

5.9

1.2

0.1

9

Siena

32.4

4.0

0.2

0.1

The intrigue was short lived as we head to the Sun Belt. Middle Tennessee is again the class of the league. This year, they should have a very good shot at an at-large bid should they need it. There’s about a 40% chance of that happening, and most of that belongs to the 2-seed Arkansas State (18%).

Sd

Team

Qtrs

Semis

Finals

Champ

1

Middle Tennessee

87.9

78.3

61.8

2

Arkansas State

83.2

50.5

17.8

6

Western Kentucky

88.7

48.5

23.1

7.0

3

South Alabama

50.1

22.2

5.2

4

Florida International

55.0

9.0

3.1

5

Arkansas-Little Rock

45.0

6.9

2.3

8

Louisiana-Lafayette

50.8

7.5

3.5

1.5

9

North Texas

49.2

4.6

2.3

0.6

7

Florida Atlantic

51.7

9.0

2.2

0.4

10

Troy

48.3

7.8

2.0

0.3

11

Louisiana-Monroe

11.3

1.4

0.0

0.0

Next Up: The Colonial, Summit, and America East begin their tournaments on Saturday.