This economic update provides an overview for 2013 and early 2014 in Malaysia and an analysis of structural trends in trade competitiveness. The economy overcame a weak start in 2013 to experience GDP growth through 2014.
... See More + The improved performance was driven mainly by a recovery in exports, including of the long-ailing electrical and electronics sector. The outlook remains favorable and GDP is expected to continue growing through 2015. Growth will be sustained by positive external conditions, with foreign demand outweighing headwinds in domestic demand. Investment and imports of capital goods will remain robust as large projects move forward. Medium-term fiscal consolidation remains on track and the debt-to-GDP ratio has stabilized, but additional spending measures are needed for the Government to meet its 2014 deficit target. The central bank has signaled that it may have to tighten policy to avoid the build-up of financial imbalances. Labor markets are healthy, and Malaysia has enjoyed higher employment levels, real wage gains, and higher labor incomes. External risks to the economic outlook have receded, but the high share of Malaysia's foreign debt means it is sensitive to international volatility. Boosting exports to fully leverage the improved external environment will be critical for sustained growth. The report's analysis of Malaysia's trade competitiveness focuses on its ability to grow exports and the domestic value-added. Malaysia's exports had been faltering since before the Global Financial Crisis. The core electrical and electronics sector declined in the 2000s, and Malaysia's domestic value-added is relatively low due to limited domestic linkages. Exports of services have also lagged and remain an area of significant potential. Restrictive Government policies play a role in hindering export growth, although the Government has recently embarked on a liberalization of service sectors. Improving domestic value-added tasks will require addressing skill gaps. Finally, Malaysia's upcoming chairmanship in ASEAN offers concrete avenues to boost trade competitiveness.
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Malaysia's economy regained momentum but yearly growth is set to decelerate in 2013. Export recovery into 2014 is expected to offset slower domestic demand and lead to a pick-up in growth.
... See More + Fiscal consolidation is picking up pace with subsidy cuts, sin tax increases, and less generous public service bonuses. The full implementation of the minimum wage in January 2014 will provide an additional boost to households, as will increased cash transfers that are part of the government's strategy for subsidy rationalization and modernizing social protection. Malaysia performs very well with respect to access to education. Enrolments at primary and lower secondary levels are nearly universal and recent gains in pre-primary education have been note-worthy. Among East Asian countries that participated in the 2012 Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), Malaysian students only outperform their Indonesian peers, and lag even lower-income countries (including, by a wide margin, Vietnam). Expenditure on basic education is more than double that of other Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and the decline in learning outcomes occurred while inputs to education were expanding and the size of the student population was falling. The key constraints to improving the quality of basic education thus relate not to the quantity of inputs but institutions. 46 percent of principals report a lack of qualified teaching staff as a constraint, and Ministry of Education (MOE) admits that in recent years some candidates enrolling in teacher training institutions did not meet minimum requirements of academic achievement at the secondary level. Lifting these constraints entails refining some of the measures recommended in the Education Blueprint for high-performing education system: (1) moving towards school-based decision-making; (2) improving parental involvement and enhancing accountability; and (3) improving incentives and recruitment for teachers. The government may consider piloting fixed contract recruitments with tenure contingent on performance, and tying retraining and up-skilling efforts with certification.
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Following a strong performance in 2012, Malaysia's economy hit a soft patch in the first quarter of 2013. Economic growth has been supported by the strong, broad-based performance of domestic consumption and investment from public and private sources.
... See More + The acceleration of investment growth has been a key feature of the recent growth trend. Public and private consumption has also underpinned growth. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies have supported both higher (real) household incomes and sustained credit growth, which along with firm labor markets provided a solid backdrop for consumption growth even as agricultural commodity prices declined. Despite significant expenditure overruns, the government met its fiscal deficit target for 2012. Supply-side factors kept inflation subdued amidst robust domestic demand. Monetary authorities emphasized macro-prudential regulation as the policy interest rate continued to be pulled in two directions. Malaysia is likely to continue posting solid growth rates in 2013 and 2014. Growth in 2013 is projected to come at 5.1 percent, supported by the strong momentum in investment growth, still-accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, higher household income due to tight labor markets, and modest improvement in the export sector. The sustainability of Malaysia's favorable near-term prospects into 2015 and beyond continues to hinge on the implementation of structural reforms. Having a rigorous investigation of the effectiveness of various tax incentives across different industries, and comparing the benefits with the costs in foregone revenues, will provide important lessons, to Malaysia and other countries, of the appropriate role for fiscal incentives in horizontal diversification.
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The Malaysian economy maintained a vigorous pace in the first nine months of 2012 despite external headwinds. Continuing a trend in the past two years, Malaysia's stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product, or GDP growth in the first nine months of 2012 was driven by rapid expansion of domestic demand while external demand (and export-oriented industries) stagnated due to continuing global uncertainty.
... See More + Malaysia's low participation of women in labor markets is linked to a pattern whereby women do not return to work after marriage and childbearing. Education alone is not sufficient to close gender gaps as social norms and formal institutions continue to affect the choices of all women. In the long-term, norms need to evolve for gender gaps to be bridged; in the meantime measures can be put in place to help men and women balance responsibilities. Changing prevailing social norms takes time. In the medium-term, supportive measures at all stages of the life-cycle can be put in place, ranging from flexi-work arrangements and expanded childcare options, to incentives for more female participation in 'non-female' educational fields and job types. While current initiatives to leverage on women's talent are laudable, other policy options must be explored, evaluated, and tailored, to enable Malaysian women to fully contribute to Malaysia's transformation towards a high-income, inclusive and sustainable economy.
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