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2012 hurricanes show risks of storm surge

In this Nov. 20, 2012 file photo, Joe Vanvaketis looks at his Superstorm Sandy damaged home in the Oakwood Beach section of Staten Island, New York. The neighborhood, where three people died during Sandy, will be the first to get state-sponsored home buyouts, according to Gov. Andrew Cuomo outlined the planned program during a visit to the borough on Monday. (Associated Press Archive / Seth Wenig, File)

That’s the sort of plain language — harrowing and blunt — that emergency managers and hurricane experts say is needed after last year’s Hurricane Isaac and Superstorm Sandy. The megastorms illuminated a danger that cannot be predicted by Doppler radar: public misconception, particularly about the risk of storm surge.

People, especially the tech-savvy, will “shop” through various news and meteorological sites to find the forecast that favors their desire to stay home. They assume that the next storm will be the same as an earlier one. They figure they’re safe because of a particular storm’s hurricane classification — say a Category 1 instead of Cat 5.

“How do we create that culture of preparedness?” asked retired Lt. Col. Russel Honore, a CNN contributor and disaster preparedness expert at the National Hurricane Conference that was held here Tuesday. “How do we go from that bureaucratic language that we all understand?

“It’s a Category 3 hurricane: That’s code-book language for us. How do we get this so that Granny understands?”

Telling vulnerable people flat-out that they will die is one way, he said.

The need for heightened public awareness of the risks from storm surge emerged as a key concern among forecasters and emergency managers at the conference, where fear of nature’s unpredictable might remains palpable nearly eight years after Hurricane Katrina forever altered the landscape of New Orleans.

The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in the Northeast and Hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast last year served as sobering reminders of the havoc and death that could occur if bigger storms hit this hurricane season.

Despite being categorically weak storms, those events brought massive storm surges to coastal areas, killing more than 300 people and wiping out public utilities and private property.

Said Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, “If we can only get behavior to change, we can change the outcome of loss of life.”

Surge accounts for the majority of deaths and property damage in major storms, but its dangers are often lost amid the public’s perception that smaller storms won’t harm them, the information clutter that accompanies storms, and the often technical predictions by the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane and tropical-storm winds build a dome of water that, depending on a variety of factors, including the storm system’s size and wind speeds, can be pushed far inland.

In response to the peril, the hurricane center is working behind the scenes on a surge watch-and- warning system — think of the familiar thunderstorm or tornado warnings — for use by 2015.

The hope is that residents will be more convinced to react when emergency managers call for evacuation, even before so-called weak storms and amid the uncertainty of media reports.

A new focus on surge warnings would be especially useful for local governments whose unique topography can experience a variety of effects from the same storm.

For example, flooding in low-lying areas will be different in Charlotte Harbor, compared with a direct hit on Sarasota, from a storm of the same intensity.

Even if a storm seems small, surge poses serious risks to places like Sarasota and Manatee counties, where officials fear residents have grown complacent in the absence of a direct hit in five decades.

In the case of 2012’s Tropical Storm Debby, residents in Sarasota County, and especially on the barrier islands, were surprised to see major flooding in neighborhoods and millions of dollars in destruction to local beaches.

Debby remained far offshore from Southwest Florida and was rated as only a tropical storm, but still raised seas two to 4.5 feet from here to the Panhandle.

Southwest Florida may not always be so fortunate, warned Wayne Sallade, Charlotte County’s emergency manager for the past 26 years.

He saw firsthand the devastation Hurricane Charley brought to Charlotte County in 2004, and has become a leader in his field for his efforts to combat the nationwide problem of residents unaware of whether they live in an evacuation zone.

Charley was a comparatively compact, fast-moving storm. The damage would be much worse from a storm that has enough time to build a sizable surge, such as Isaac or Sandy.

Compounding the problem is the difficulty of evacuating millions of people from vulnerable areas.

“We’re a catastrophe waiting to happen,” Sallade said. “That’s one of the great nightmares awaiting this country.”

With the help of volunteers, Sallade’s team has installed color-coded bands on stop signs across the county to help people know which zone they’re in should an evacuation be called ahead of predicted storm surge. Those colors will correspond with warning maps.

That model has been praised by national mitigation experts and is likely to be replicated.

National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said that Isaac and Sandy presented unique challenges for forecasting, not only because of the storms’ punch, but also their impact on local communities.

Knabb said that officials are bracing for more challenges this year.

“We have to be expecting that we’ll be dealing with any number of unusual cyclones or tropical storms,” Knabb said. “We don’t know what the next season will bring, but it’s going to bring something — something we didn’t expect.”

<p>If you stay here, you will die. There could be 10 feet of water. Your home could be safe, but you're putting your family at risk. </p><p>That's the sort of plain language — harrowing and blunt — that emergency managers and hurricane experts say is needed after last year's Hurricane Isaac and Superstorm Sandy. The megastorms illuminated a danger that cannot be predicted by Doppler radar: public misconception, particularly about the risk of storm surge.</p><p>People, especially the tech-savvy, will “shop” through various news and meteorological sites to find the forecast that favors their desire to stay home. They assume that the next storm will be the same as an earlier one. They figure they're safe because of a particular storm's hurricane classification — say a Category 1 instead of Cat 5.</p><p>“How do we create that culture of preparedness?” asked retired Lt. Col. Russel Honore, a CNN contributor and disaster preparedness expert at the National Hurricane Conference that was held here Tuesday. “How do we go from that bureaucratic language that we all understand? </p><p>“It's a Category 3 hurricane: That's code-book language for us. How do we get this so that Granny understands?”</p><p>Telling vulnerable people flat-out that they will die is one way, he said.</p><p>The need for heightened public awareness of the risks from storm surge emerged as a key concern among forecasters and emergency managers at the conference, where fear of nature's unpredictable might remains palpable nearly eight years after Hurricane Katrina forever altered the landscape of New Orleans.</p><p>The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in the Northeast and Hurricane Isaac along the Gulf Coast last year served as sobering reminders of the havoc and death that could occur if bigger storms hit this hurricane season.</p><p>Despite being categorically weak storms, those events brought massive storm surges to coastal areas, killing more than 300 people and wiping out public utilities and private property. </p><p>Said Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, “If we can only get behavior to change, we can change the outcome of loss of life.”</p><p>Surge accounts for the majority of deaths and property damage in major storms, but its dangers are often lost amid the public's perception that smaller storms won't harm them, the information clutter that accompanies storms, and the often technical predictions by the National Hurricane Center.</p><p>Hurricane and tropical-storm winds build a dome of water that, depending on a variety of factors, including the storm system's size and wind speeds, can be pushed far inland.</p><p>In response to the peril, the hurricane center is working behind the scenes on a surge watch-and- warning system — think of the familiar thunderstorm or tornado warnings — for use by 2015.</p><p>The hope is that residents will be more convinced to react when emergency managers call for evacuation, even before so-called weak storms and amid the uncertainty of media reports. </p><p>A new focus on surge warnings would be especially useful for local governments whose unique topography can experience a variety of effects from the same storm.</p><p>For example, flooding in low-lying areas will be different in Charlotte Harbor, compared with a direct hit on Sarasota, from a storm of the same intensity.</p><p>Even if a storm seems small, surge poses serious risks to places like Sarasota and Manatee counties, where officials fear residents have grown complacent in the absence of a direct hit in five decades.</p><p>In the case of 2012's Tropical Storm Debby, residents in Sarasota County, and especially on the barrier islands, were surprised to see major flooding in neighborhoods and millions of dollars in destruction to local beaches.</p><p>Debby remained far offshore from Southwest Florida and was rated as only a tropical storm, but still raised seas two to 4.5 feet from here to the Panhandle.</p><p>Southwest Florida may not always be so fortunate, warned Wayne Sallade, Charlotte County's emergency manager for the past 26 years. </p><p>He saw firsthand the devastation Hurricane Charley brought to Charlotte County in 2004, and has become a leader in his field for his efforts to combat the nationwide problem of residents unaware of whether they live in an evacuation zone.</p><p>“Without a touch of storm surge,” Sallade said, “we lost 11,000 homes.”</p><p>Charley was a comparatively compact, fast-moving storm. The damage would be much worse from a storm that has enough time to build a sizable surge, such as Isaac or Sandy. </p><p>Compounding the problem is the difficulty of evacuating millions of people from vulnerable areas.</p><p>“We're a catastrophe waiting to happen,” Sallade said. “That's one of the great nightmares awaiting this country.”</p><p>With the help of volunteers, Sallade's team has installed color-coded bands on stop signs across the county to help people know which zone they're in should an evacuation be called ahead of predicted storm surge. Those colors will correspond with warning maps.</p><p>That model has been praised by national mitigation experts and is likely to be replicated.</p><p>National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb said that Isaac and Sandy presented unique challenges for forecasting, not only because of the storms' punch, but also their impact on local communities.</p><p>Knabb said that officials are bracing for more challenges this year.</p><p>“We have to be expecting that we'll be dealing with any number of unusual cyclones or tropical storms,” Knabb said. “We don't know what the next season will bring, but it's going to bring something — something we didn't expect.”</p>