Sunday, March 30, 2008

brave film experience readers have spoken, daring to predict the Oscar lineup for BEST ACTRESS many months before the films even open. How close will your collective prediction be this year? Here it is...

To all Best Actress Psychic contestants:Thank you for entering the contest. We have almost 200 competitors. Because the ballots have proven so similar this year (last year there were no duplicates) TFE may be experimenting with special bonus point questions, possibly bi-monthly, so if you have entered please make sure that e-mail from filmexperience (at) gmail (dot) com is approved in your e-mail account and does not go in your junkmail!

81 comments:

Ziyi Zhang?!That would be wonderful. It blows that the one year it goes to a foreign language performance, it goes to that performance. Where's the Oscar for Catherine Deneuve, Isabelle Huppert, Audrey Tautou, Maggie Cheung, Gong Li, Zhang Ziyi, Carmen Maura, or Penenlope Cruz for that matter? At least Sophia Loren has hers.

I think Hathaway will get a blog nod, but not an oscar nod. At least, if the film can swing itself as a comedy.

Am I the only one who finds it hard not to believe in Revolutionary Road? I think the big disappointment will be Australia (another Cold Mountain or maybe Doubt (fails to transfer well to the screen). It just feels like too many stars are aligned in Road's favor, so to speak. I don't think people want it to fail. For it to miss, it'd really have to miss SPECTACULARLY. And even then, I think Kate would still get the nod.

i dont understand why Cold Mountain (and subsequently Nicole Kidman) is (are) always referred to as a disappointment... i dont understand at all... its one of the more beautiful film in the recent years...

but I decided against it and went with a longshot instead of Kidman... Portman for Brothers. Remember Sheridan got Morton (deservedly...sp?) nominated in 2003 after no precursors... hopefully precursos will occur this time!

Not for this year, but possibly worth considering for next time - as a confirmation of receipt, you might send some sort of hot-key auto-reply with the original message attached to confirm receipt of entries, with a warning in the contest rules that if you do not receive a reply, then it is likely that you are not entered. It might also cut down on the anonymous entries on the blog that keep showing up.

the Jack said...I have seen Life Before Her Eyes, and except for the yucky new title, it is really very good. BUT, in my opinion, Wood and Amurri are the high points of the film. Thurman does have some very nice moments though!BUT, the distributors obviously don't have a clue how to market this movie anyway, so will anyone see it and will they even campaign for Thurman and Wood as they should?

Personally, I am sorry I didn't go with Marianne Faithfull as a real dark horse for Irina Palm...I hear she is wonderful and God knows, that woman deserves some recognition!

The 15 January 2009 release date on IMDB is for its planned release in Germany...the U.S. release is still planned for 12 December 2008, early enough to get its two-week qualifying run for 2008 eligibility.

Careful - that choice is in my pick-five and you almost gave me a coronary.

Kamikaze camel....does that mean you saw Irina Palm? Or is it just the politics of the whole thing that led you to that belief? Just curious.I have a funny feeling that there will be many melt downs this year, and that many of these movies will tank...for instance Blindness. If so, where will the performances come from? Probably some unforeseen sources.

marianne faithful would be a coup. I considered her, but her age, lack of previous recognition and, gulp, I would even say her size are all factors working against her. Of course, if it's a balls-out performance, anything is possible. Look at Fernanda Montenegro and Kathy Bates as recent examples. For your sake, anon, I hope you're rewarded for taking a chance. I'm just too much of a numbers player.

Hi Carl, I think that anon 10:04 may have read a recent Variety article which discussed the impact of Anthony Minghella's death on numerous film and TV projects. The Reader (he was a producer) was mentioned briefly. "The Reader will likely rest in the hands of producer Scott Rudin, but a once-rumoured fall release by TWC is now unlikely". I'm not familiar enough with American seasons to know whether that endangers the current release date of December that you mentioned, but I hope not.

I have not seen Irina Palm, but it has already received a release here and elsewhere around the world and nobody went to see it and I doubt it'll rack up a good enough box office for awards play. It doesn't strike me as a film that will become some sort of word-of-mouth arthouse hit.

I'd love to be proven wrong - Faithful definitely deserves some recognition - but I just can't imagine the Academy (or any other awards body in America for that matter) going for it.

Nat, I had been telling myself all along that I would choose Drew Barrymore as a nominee and then I didn't so I'll be bummed out if she gets a nom. A bit disappointing that my predix all come from the top 8. Oh well. Such is life.

I agonised over Blunt vs Knightley for The Duchess, thinking they were (potentially) highly similar prospects: young British actress playing period royal in films released at the same time. I plumped for Blunt and was amazed to see how many others did too, with Knightley getting barely any votes! Funny how group telepathy seems to work...

To Anon and Glenn - I've seen Irina Palm (saw it instead of Home Song Stories, grrrrrr). While Marianne does get a lot of tender spots within the movie which could snag people's attention, the movie as a whole is not enough. It tends to get disjointed while still trying to characterize Marianne. The world and the character just don't seem to mesh. The nearest example I can give off from my film experience would be Morvern Callar. Yeah, Irina Palm reminds me of Morvern Callar.

Oh and Glenn, regarding the Hawkins vote, I know my reasoning is that I don't want to get caught offguard by what I now call The Cotillard Effect.

I do not believe (wishful thinking?) that Minghella's passing by itself will push back "The Reader" to 2009, but it is certainly possible that the 'death of a thousand cuts', an accumulation of small problems, could do it. That's a problem with flirting with a mid-December release and planning production around it...any problems at all and it misses the window for 2008.

Gotta love the stones on the folks picking Watson - I feel certain that she wins the Oscar for the uber-baity "Within the Whirlwind" when it comes out...in 2009.

I am right there with you, Nathaniel, on Drew Barrymore...she was the last one out on my list this year. But I also had Jessica Lange in my top 15 and I just could not see both performances getting traction this year.

Only two of my picks in the consensus five - right in my comfort zone. Ahhh...

I won't lie, I totally copied Sally Hawkins off Glenn. You shouldn't have advertised it so much, Glenn! I was not aware of her at first, but I remember you kept explaining why she was a likely nominee, and eventually I bought into it.

I also definitely considered picking Barrymore, but ultimately assumed she'd go supporting. Not sure why I thought that. But I always thought if she got an oscar nod, it'd be for supporting, and I still have that feeling. A Kate Hudson-type nomination.

I have a question:Why most of the American actress who won Oscar in the Leading Category didn't deserve the Award or their performance are least important than foreigners in the last years?

-Helen Hunt: Awful, awful performance. She's playing exactly in her show "Mad about you"... Judi Dench and Helena Bonham Carter deserves more the Oscar-Gwyneth Paltrow: Cate Blanchett, Fernanda Montenegro and Emily Watson are robbed!!!-Hilary swank: Her second nomination is good but Oscar? Anyone of her contenders are better.-Reese Witherspoon: Someone explain me why that performance deserves the Oscar... When I saw the film, I only think: Yes, Reese Witherspoon sings very well, but I saw Reese playing Reese with dark hair, same faces, actitudes and voice like Legally Blonde and she's forced...

The Best Performances in the last years were from foreigners actresses:-Nicole Kidman: She's against the great Julianne Moore but she's really remarcable in "The Hours" like Virginia Woolf-Charlize Theron: The south African actress do a perfect transformation...-Helen Mirren: I prefer Kate Winslet or Judi Dench, but I recognize the hard work of her character...-Marion Cotillard: The film is... but her performance is in another level... It's not like Oh Marion is playing Edith Piaf, Marion is simple Piaf.

The really annoying thing will be if Doubt or Revolutionary Road move to 2009. I can deal with the movies just not being good or whathaveyou, but if they're ineligible simply because they got moved I'll be pissed.

Adam, tell me 'bout it! Although I am the only person who chose my lineup so I have that going for me.

"It's not like Oh Marion is playing Edith Piaf, Marion is simple Piaf."

Like, perhaps, omgmarioncotillardisedithpiaf? I tell you, I should copyright the use of that phrase.

In the case of Doubt, I put for cuestion of before that... The panthom of the Opera, Rent, Dreamgirls, Sweeney todd... But I could be wrong and Doubt could be the most nominee picture of the year... I don't deny the power complety. Revolutionary Road is a beloved novel and Sam Mendes, Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet are actors and director who do intersting films so I put very well.

If I copyright that prhase, That's OK, but if I remember you hate the film and don't like Cotillard's performance, so what's the deal?

Oh goodie, we're getting into La Vie En Rose again. It only became available a couple of weeks ago here and I finally got around to watching it after Grace Jones's version of "La Vie En Rose" played to the fashion shows of Pret-a-Porter convinced me to go ahead.

Here's how I felt afterwards:I'm Terence Stamp. The people who loved La Vie En Rose is/are Guy Pierce. And I just went and said the line:

I went for Barrymore for the same reason as Nathaniel-she's one of those stars who is waiting for the inevitable Oscar-role to land them the Oscar nod. Much like how, at this point in their career, John Travolta or Harrison Ford could nab their career Oscars were they to turn in the right sort of performance, Drew Barrymore has been working with enough people in Hollywood for three decades to be able to pull off a nomination if she ever gets close to one. That said, if she's going against Streep, Winslet, Moore, and a pretty young actress playing a Queen, well, she'd better be happy with the nomination.

Ooh I have the same ballot as JC Rockefeller! And my picks were 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th in the groupthink tally. Surprised I didn't predict the top 2.

Also surprised that Revolutionary Road trounced The Reader as people's Winslet pick. I'm guessing people think she'll go supporting for The Reader? I just felt Daldry has more Oscar caché these days than Mendes.

I'm semi-regretting not going for Barrymore for Grey Gardens in the end. It was a toss-up between her and Hawkins for my 5th spot. But, as with Adam K, I thought if Barrymore was to get the nod, she'd go supporting and Lange would be campaigned in lead.

Like your Lane theory, Nathaniel. I hope you're right - even though it'll be at the expense of my predictions.

Anon, all your examples were musicals that ended up having major issues. I get the idea (Proof, etc) but, honestly, at this point of the year unless people are predicting really absurd stuff like genre flicks or something of that nature then there's really no point in trying to argue for/against a nomination. And when it's Meryl Streep who has, what? 15 nominations? It's just common sense (however unfortunate that may be in the long run).

For Streep, the part alone seals the nom.For Winslet, well they love to nominate her and at least one of the films will score with the Academy.For Jolie, well, it is said that every actress under 50 wanted the part. It's Eastwood people !

Then I think Sally Hawkins will surprise as the newly nommed young British actress, partly because she's probably going to win the Comedy Globe (the only competition right now is La Streep for Mamma Mia) and she's being singled out in every review.

Forget about Knightley, she's not going to impress anyone with anothey british period film.

The Fifth spot is a battle between Blunt and Kidman. Of course playing a queen is a good idea, but franky, are voters not tired about British queens ?

I smell Kidman is in, because they seem to care about her when she's in very m'as-tu-vu, high-profile films, and they snub her in smaller or indie films (To die for, The Portrait of a lady, Eyes wide shut, Dogville, Birth, Margot at the wedding... God how many times has she been snubbed ? I guess that makes her due for a second Oscar lol), and I think Luhrman knows what he's doing with Australia (if only he could change that lazy title)

Snubbed?....hasn't Meryl Streep actually been a bit taken for granted over the years? All those nominations - just one BA win. Isn't it about time to give her a second BA oscar? If Sally Field & Hillary Swank can have 2 BA ocars....shouldn't Meryl for gosh sakes? I'm hoping for her next year. Let's quit taking her for granted and tossing her a bone (nomination) all the time.

Plus, I think everyone seems to be forgetting that Nicole is PREGGERS and y'all just know she's gonna be on magazines for months on end and each and every one of those articles will mention Australia. Plus, maybe having a baby will soften her image. It's like how she was seen as an "ice queen" until her divorce from Tom Cruise and she racked up two quick noms and a win. Maybe a baby will dissolve the re-freezing and they'll love her again.

...just a theory.

Nat, I'm certain that there's a surprise waiting in the wings, it's just at this particularly moment in time, not being able to foresee it (Hawkins doesn't seem to qualify anymore), means you have to make do and for a lot of ppl the top eight make a lot of sense.

On one hand I sorta hope it all gets thrown into disarray and random foreign people shoot up outta nowhere. Of course, it would ruin the competition, so maybe not...

jolie's snub this year stuck in alot of peoples throats esp becuase cate b's perf in e-tga was an embarrassment even she knew that on oscar night,they will be honoring jolie for afine perf and as a sorry..

Question. Let's say Sarah Jessica Parker gets a GG nomination for the Sex and the City Movie. It will be her 9th nomination but 2nd film nomination. Does she still get the -2 becuase it's nomination 6 and higher?

Question. Let's say Sarah Jessica Parker gets a GG nomination for the Sex and the City Movie. It will be her 9th nomination but 2nd film nomination. Does she still get the -2 becuase it's nomination 6 and higher?