GLOBAL MACRO SHIFTS

Inflation: Dead, or Just Forgotten?with Michael Hasenstab, Ph.D.

There is a growing consensus that the global economy might be falling into recession, and that even if it does not, global growth will remain permanently weaker, and inflation will remain close to zero if not outright negative in large parts of the world. Templeton Global Macro team explains why it believes this deep-seated pessimism on growth is exaggerated, and argues that inflation is poised to recover to normal levels, as the impact of oil price declines fade.

Inflation Outlook

Has QE resulted in a new era of permanent low growth and deflation? Dr. Michael Hasenstab counters the consensus and shares his own inflation analysis.

Global Economic Outlook

Dr. Michael Hasenstab offers insights on emerging markets volatility, the latest developments in China, the negative interest rate decision by Japan, and provides an update on the local bond markets.

Topic Paper

Templeton Global Macro, led by Dr. Michael Hasenstab, delivers in-depth analysis on the future of inflation.

What Are the Risks?

All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as the prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Special risks are associated with foreign investing, including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in developing markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets' smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets.

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