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2 Infrastructure and Physical Damages Estimated for ARkStorm Keith A. Porter, Ph.D., Associate Research Professor Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering College of Engineering & Applied Science University of Colorado at Boulder Engineering Center Office Tower UCB Boulder, CO Cell: (626) Web: BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH Keith Porter is an Associate Research Professor in Structural Engineering and Structural Mechanics at the University of Colorado at Boulder. He received degrees in civil and structural engineering from UC Davis (BS 1987), UC Berkeley (MEng 1990), and Stanford University (PhD 2000). He is a licensed Professional Engineer and researcher specializing in seismic vulnerability, catastrophe risk modeling, and performance-based earthquake engineering. He helped to develop the current state-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering method that estimates seismic risk to buildings in terms dollars, deaths, and downtime. He is currently leading the damage-estimation aspects of the ARkStorm winter-storm scenario for the USGS. Some interesting projects include: the Global Earthquake Model, the Southern California ShakeOut earthquake emergency planning scenario, the San Francisco Community Action Plan for Seismic Safety, a study of demand surge for the Willis Research Network, and a study for the US Congress that found a 4:1 benefitcost ratio for multihazard risk mitigation. ABSTRACT An event like the ARkStorm scenario would impose severe flooding and hurricane-force winds on large areas of California, potentially damaging buildings, contents, and infrastructure such as roads, bridges, electric power system, etc. We estimated physical damages in the ARkStorm scenario by three approaches. To produce a realistic outcome at the aggregate societal level, we employed the data and methods of FEMA s flagship emergency-planning software HAZUS-MH, although the calculations had to be done outside of HAZUS-MH. To examine the effects of the ARkStorm on lifelines such as the highway network, electric power, etc., a series of 12 panel discussions were held with engineers, operators, and emergency planners from the various lifelines at risk. The panel participants were presented with the meteorological and flooding inputs, and they offered their judgments about the resulting damage and restoration efforts that they would undertake if ARkStorm were to occur. In three cases, special studies were performed by individual experts. These were of demand surge (sudden temporary increases in costs resulting from the need to repair widespread damage), telecommunications, and insurance impacts. Between the three approaches, it is deemed realistic that an event like the ARkStorm would result in property damage costing $310 to $330 billion to repair, of which approximately $200 billion is from building damage from flooding, $100 billion from content damage from flooding, $5 billion from wind damage to buildings, and the balance from infrastructure damage. Demand surge could potentially increase this amount by 20%. Some highways in steep terrain could be heavily damaged by multiple landslides, in some cases taking months or more to repair. Electric power would be unavailable for up to 2 weeks in most places, but in some places with very high winds such as the southern Sierras, commercial electric power could take months to restore. Sewer systems in heavily flooded areas are subject to damage, with some counties having half their wastewater treatment plans flooded, damaging the electrical equipment, and requiring a month or more to restore. Water service is severely impacted in some places, especially where well pumps are flooded and contaminated with untreated wastewater, in some places taking several months to restore. Lifeline service providers are being given a second opportunity to review and offer revisions to these findings.

12 Demand Surge Ins. Info. Inst. 2009: Demand surge is the increase in the cost of labor and materials as demand rises for building contractors to repair damage after a natural disaster. EQECAT 2008: Demand surge occurs when the demand for products and services to repair damage significantly exceeds the regional supply. Guy Carpenter 2004: Reconstruction pricing gets inflated by the demand for material and services and by decisions of regulators and insurers that go beyond policy language. Munich Re 2006: Final insured losses were often higher than the initial forecasts. Demand surge was one explanation of the underestimated losses. It generally means temporary increased prices for repairs as a result of supply versus demand for repair materials & services

13 Historic demand surge Demand Surge [%]

14 Demand surge DS = f(demand:supply) $300 bn is large compared with repair resources; 5-10 years of construction, >2% of GDP Flood-insurance market penetration is low Much of the loss might not be repaired for a long time ARkStorm: 20% DS realistic DS adds $60 to 70 bn to loss

29 What if it takes more that 3 months to repair water transport to SoCal? Repairs could take longer or could require more materials & equipment than are available At what point in repair duration does saltwater intrusion become a problem? What happens to hydrodynamics of Bay Delta if islands are not dewatered or during the year(s) of repairs? How do other environmental issues (e.g., species protection) affect repair decisions? ARkStorm doesn t answer these questions but it s important to ask them

30 Enhancing levee resiliency Enough resources to repair 1/2 of breaches by water, the other 1/2 from land side. Improve forecast & evacuation & sheltering policies. Remediation cost: $25B to bring all 1500 project-levee miles to accredited status, not counting 3500 miles of other levees Addition of hardened Peripheral Canal would eliminate problem of supplying water to SoCal in case of damage to Delta and urban levees Peripheral Canal is only part of the problem; south bay aqueduct and north bay aqueduct also a problem

33 Preliminary conclusions $400 billion property loss if the ARkStorm occurred Compare with flood control $10s of bns Warning could conceivably reduce losses by $100 bn It could take months to repair the lifeline damage Maybe not enough resources to repair buildings a true catastrophe Property damage 3-4x greater than ShakeOut A wind disaster & a flood catastrophe Affects most of the population Worse than living memory but not a worst case Discussing risk can inform mitigation decisions.

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