Saturday, January 11, 2014

The Consumer is Really Hurting

Back in the early 1980s, the debt load was minuscule compared to the mountain of debt which exists today, and hardly anyone had even heard of derivatives, which today hang over the global banking system like a deadly sword. Clearly, the expansion of credit has reached extreme levels.

One key measure is the level of debt compared to economic activity. Debt continues a multi-year trend by growing faster than GDP, which is just limping along and likely to weaken in 2014. Weakness in retail sales and housing show how the consumer is really hurting.