Are the ecosystem wars won on the factory floor? The evolution of value chains in a computing market measured in the billions of units per year.

Organizers

​Abstract: 2013 will see two billion phones shipped into a
market of over 6 billion points of network connectivity for over 4 billion
consumers. In addition to phones there will be a few hundred million tablets
and mobile computers shipped. It's very likely that the majority of these
devices will be "smart", meaning designed to be a part of an
ecosystem of software, content and services. Contrary to the common
assumption that larger markets sustain more competitors, this immense and
rapidly growing market is profitable for only two device vendors. Efficient
supply and distribution networks allow products to be delivered in vast volumes
within a short window of competitive advantage. However, scale benefits those
who can operate at scale and punishes those who can't. Close observation of the
investments of these "superpower" competitors shows an extraordinary
level of capital purchases of manufacturing equipment, regardless of their
nominal position in the value chain. These capital expenses have been growing
in proportion to in the frequency of product launches. I present data showing a
correlation between manufacturing equipment CapEx and ecosystem success and put
forward a hypothesis that this relationship is causal. I also discuss the
implications for ecosystems owners with regard to the processes, resources and
priorities necessary to succeed in this evolved value chain.​