A weak short wave has trekked across the northern CWA late this
afternoon, allowing for some weak shower activity to first
develop then enhance itself along the leading edge of the
eastward spreading cold pool it has formed. The HRRR has a
largely decent handle on this, and it allows it to track ESE
over the next 2-4 hours before dissipating. This may bring a
shower or two across the northern reaches of the Pittsburgh
area, however the majority of the shower activity will remain
north of the turnpike.
Elsewhere, the lake breeze off of Lake Erie is generating a
second line of showers and it pushes inland. This activity will
too affect the I-80 corridor and northward over the next 2-4
hours. Any other activity remains very isolated and ill-
developed.
With little upstream convective blow off and cumulus dissipation
after peak heating, a clear night looks to be in store. Elevated
surface dewpoints and calm conditions will thus result in fog,
particularly in the lower spots overnight toward sunrise. Fries

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After the passage of today`s wave, heights will briefly build
Wednesday, allowing a dry forecast to carry through much of Wednesday.
Increasing southwesterly flow late Wednesday night into early
Thursday will lift a warm front into the area. Will keep the
area dry through the pre-dawn Thursday, but do bring some chance
PoPs in for near the Thursday morning rush hour.
The warm front will lift north of the area Thursday afternoon,
with mostly scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm
sector. The deep parent low lifting north through the Great
Lakes will finally swing a cold front into our western zones
late Thursday night into Friday morning. While timing
differences do exist, it looks as though the broad consensus
across model guidance is for high PoPs near or after 00z Friday
with the front. If this timing holds, it is not very favorable
for strong convection along the front to make it deep into our
forecast area. For this reason, the Day 3 marginal risk outlines
just our Ohio counties, which seems prudent.
Temperatures through the period will remain near average.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Any lingering rain showers will taper down by Saturday as high
pressure briefly builds in. A secondary wave Saturday night
could bring additional rain chances, but timing will be
unfavorable for much else. Broad high pressure will then build
into the region for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will remain
near average, building into the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered to broken cumulus clouds will persist through the
afternoon, with light winds overall. A few showers and storms
remain possible around and north of I-80, and handled with VCTS
at FKL. Skies will be mainly clear overnight with calm wind
after daytime heating is lost.
Expecting a round of at least valley-based fog overnight, with
IFR at several terminals. Still some questions as to amount of
high cloud cover as well as whether crossover temperatures will
be generally breached, so elected to keep things valley-based
and capped visibility drop to 1 mile for now. However, LIFR
certainly is possible at a few sites.
Fog will lift by late morning, with VFR conditions returning,
along with continued light wind.
.Outlook...
Localized morning fog will again be possible Wednesday morning. Widespread
restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$