July 12 Poll Report

By Bill James

July 12, 2019

July 12 Poll Report

Good morning everybody. The much-abused Beto O’Rourke had a good day in my poll yesterday, not a great day, but we had him pegged to finish second in the poll at 28%, and he actually won the poll at 34%. He dropped off the gray list yesterday; his Support Score is now the highest it has been in two weeks, so there could be a little bit of a recovery going on there.He’s got a long way to go to get back where he was. These are the poll results from yesterday:

Scores

Hickenlooper

268

O'Rourke

338

Yang

354

Weld

245

Predicted

Hickenlooper

22

O'Rourke

28

Yang

29

Weld

20

Actual

Hickenlooper

18

O'Rourke

34

Yang

33

Weld

15

The removal of the old poll, the poll of May 22, was a true non-event.The persons listed in that poll were Jeff Flake, Stacey Abrams, Wayne Messam and Howard Schultz.Flake, Abrams and Messam are already gone from the system, so their numbers had already been removed from the data; Schultz is still active. . .well, he is inactive, but he is still a candidate. . .but since the other guys had already been removed, there is no one left in that poll for Schultz to be compared to, so it was already gone from his standpoint, as well.

And there were no secondary effects from yesterday’s poll that register on the Support-o-Meter, so the only four candidates whose scores have moved more than a point or two since yesterday are the four who were polled yesterday:

Beto O’Rourke is up 10 points,

Andrew Yang is up 9 points,

John Hickenlooper-Scooper is down 9 points, and

Bill Weld is down 12 points,

All of those as a result of yesterday’s poll.

These are the updated Support Scores:

Rank

First

Last

Support

1

Elizabeth

Warren

1841

2

Pete

Buttigieg

1008

3

Joe

Biden

955

4

Kamala

Harris

820

5

Donald

Trump

536

6

Amy

Klobuchar

504

7

Julian

Castro

450

8

Bernie

Sanders

437

9

Andrew

Yang

363

10

Cory

Booker

351

11

Beto

O'Rourke

348

12

Jay

Inslee

289

13

Kirsten

Gillibrand

269

14

John

Hickenlooper

259

15

Bill

Weld

233

16

Tulsi

Gabbard

230

17

Michael

Bennet

168

18

Steve

Bullock

115

19

Howard

Schultz

108

20

Tim

Ryan

108

21

John

Delaney

106

22

Seth

Moulton

88

23

Marianne

Williamson

84

24

Mike

Gravel

77

25

Bill

de Blasio

77

Marianne Williamson has dropped off the Green List for the first time since I started using the Green/Gray highlighting, although she is still just a point or two away from being green.