UNDECIDED MAY BE KEY TO FOLEY SEAT

Democrat Tim Mahoney leads Republican Joe Negron by 7 percentage points in a critical congressional election to replace disgraced U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, but the Foley page scandal is not influencing how most people plan to vote, according to a South Florida Sun-Sentinel/Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers poll.

With partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives hanging on a few closely fought races, a Democratic gain in Florida's 16th Congressional District -- typically Republican territory -- could be a decisive factor, national experts said.

If the District 16 election were held today, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mahoney, a Palm Beach Gardens businessman, and 41 percent would back Negron, a state representative from Stuart. A sizable 11 percent remain undecided, with just over three weeks before the election.

Independent voters, who are angry over how Republican leaders handled the Foley scandal, could prove pivotal in the District 16 race, the poll showed. Non-party affiliated voters account for 85,325, or 18 percent, of the district's 477,372 registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Pollster Del Ali said with voters from each party strongly supporting their candidate, a poor showing among independents could spell trouble for Negron and the Republican Party.

"Those are voters Foley did very, very well with in his previous campaigns," said Ali. "These voters are clearly the most disgusted." They are voters such as Barbara Smith, an independent from Port St. Lucie who participated in the poll. She hasn't decided how she'll vote, saying she doesn't feel drawn to either candidate.

"I try to pick people that I think have decency and are somewhat thinking the way I do, but quite frankly, I'm disgusted," she said. "I don't trust anyone in the government."

The sprawling, Treasure Coast-based district covers parts of Palm Beach County, including Wellington and Jupiter, and stretches over rural farmland to the Gulf Coast.

A six-term congressman from Fort Pierce, Foley's Sept. 29 resignation came amid reports of salacious e-mail and instant-message exchanges he had with teenage congressional pages. But Foley's resignation is not shaping how voters view the November elections, the poll showed.

Seventy-one percent of the respondents, including two-thirds of Democrats, said Foley's resignation would have "no effect" on whether they'll vote for Mahoney. An even bigger majority -- 72 percent -- said the Foley scandal wouldn't influence their voting patterns in other races.

In the District 16 contest, Foley's name will remain on the Nov. 7 ballot, with any votes cast for Foley going to Negron.

"The gap is narrowing," said Allen Miller, a St. Lucie County Republican operative and chairman of the GOP's District 16 congressional caucus. "Even though that's a 7-point spread, we've still got three weeks, and we're going to keep plugging."

Republicans are counting on party loyalists such as Wellington resident Barbara Jones "holding their nose and voting for Foley," as Josh Kraushaar, who oversees House races for the election-tracking Web site Hotline, said Friday.

"We're staunch Republicans," said Jones, 72, a poll participant. "We're sorry about what happened with Mark Foley, but we're certainly not going to become a Democrat."

The poll, though, indicated the GOP might have a difficult time persuading conservatives in District 16 to go to the polls. While 58 percent of Democrats said they were "very enthusiastic" or "enthusiastic" about the election, only 28 percent of Republicans said the same.

Palm Beach County Democratic Party Chairman Wahid Mahmood said he expects a down-to-the-wire finish. "We know it's not going to be a cakewalk for Tim Mahoney," said Mahmood, citing Negron's name recognition in Martin and St. Lucie counties from his tenure in Tallahassee.

Maryland-based Research 2000 conducted the telephone survey of 600 likely voters in District 16 Wednesday through Friday for the Sun-Sentinel/Scripps Newspapers.

As the House Ethics Committee investigates the Republican response to Foley's Internet exchanges, a narrow majority of respondents -- 53 percent -- said House leaders "covered up the circumstances leading to Mark Foley's resignation." It broke down along party lines, with 89 percent of Democrats seeing a cover-up compared with only 18 percent of Republicans.

Independents also strongly disapproved of how House Speaker Dennis Hastert and other leaders handled the situation.

"Yes, I believe they did know about it and protected him," said retiree Carol Smith, 65, a registered Democrat who lives in Port St. Lucie and took part in the poll. Smith said she plans to vote for Mahoney, although she'd made up her mind even before Foley's resignation. "I didn't like [Foley's] support for the war," she explained.

Republicans are less likely to fault Hastert and Republican leaders. Only 36 percent disapproved of Hastert's handling of the situation, compared with 50 percent who said he did a good job.

"I don't really think Dennis Hastert knew about it," said Jones, the Wellington Republican. "I really don't think Republicans are that stupid, that they would allow this man to continue with all these problems."

The poll also revealed that residents in District 16 are wary of Foley's claim that a clergyman molested him as an adolescent in Lake Worth. Only 41 percent believed that claim, compared with 42 percent who didn't believe it and 17 percent who were unsure.

A majority believed Foley's claims that he is an alcoholic and has behavioral problems.

The District 16 race -- once considered a long shot for Democrats -- is now at the center of a growing national trend toward Democratic challengers, even in traditionally GOP districts.

Democrats need to gain 15 seats to take control of the House for the first time in more than a decade. And evidence is mounting that Republicans are in trouble. Hotline lists the 30 most vulnerable seats in the midterm elections as currently held by Republicans. Foley's former seat is ranked third. Both parties' national campaign committees in Washington, D.C., are scrambling to pour money into the District 16 race, highlighting its newfound importance in the national landscape.

"Florida 16 is a great example -- that ought to be fairly automatically Republican," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political science professor, pointing to the district's Republican registration advantage. "And it would be in a normal year. This is not a normal year. This is a Democratic wave year. The only thing we don't know yet is how high the wave will be."

Josh Hafenbrack can be reached at jhafenbrack@sun-sentinel.com or 561-228-5508.