How Republicans could win back the Senate in 2014

By Chris Cillizza

Sunday, May 26, 2013

In a party where good news has been hard to find over the past two years, the current state of play in 2014 Senate races gives Republicans some reason to smile.

A combination of raw numbers, a shift in the political environment and some notable recruiting failures have handed Senate Republicans a realistic -- but by no means certain_ chance of picking up the six seats they need to win back control of the chamber next fall.

This was always going to be a good election cycle -- numbers-wise -- for Senate Republicans. They are defending just 14 seats as compared with 21 for Democrats. And, of those 14 seats, just one -- Maine's Susan Collins -- is in a state that President Barack Obama won in 2012. By contrast, one-third of the Democrats up for re-election in 2014 represent states former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney carried in 2012.

(Of course, the 2012 Senate playing field was also, by the numbers, tilted heavily to Republicans, and Democrats wound up picking up two seats thanks to surprising wins in GOP-leaning territory like Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota.)

The way the races have played out to date -- with the caveat that it's May 2013, not September 2014 -- also have worked broadly in Republicans' favor.

Six Democratic incumbents are retiring and very few are doing so from safe Democratic states. Retirements in South Dakota, Iowa, Montana and West Virginia all pose risks for Democrats. Michigan is a state that Republicans will make noise about but ultimately aren't likely to win. Ditto New Jersey, where Sen. Frank Lautenberg bowed out but Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) seems set to replace him.

Just two Republicans are retiring -- Sen. Saxby Chambliss of Georgia and Sen. Mike Johanns of Nebraska -- and both are vacating states that went for Romney and seem likely to elect Republicans barring the unexpected.

Recruitment -- or a lack thereof -- also has handed Republicans a bit of momentum.

In South Dakota, former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin and U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, the son of retiring Sen. Tim Johnson, have both passed on the chance to run for the Democratic nomination. While Republicans may face a primary between former Gov. Mike Rounds and freshman Rep. Kristi Noem, the winner will be considered a clear favorite over likely Democratic nominee Rick Weiland.

It's the same in West Virginia, where a series of big-name Democrats have said no, leaving the party without a clear next step in terms of a candidate. Meanwhile, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito looks like the clear favorite to be the Republican nominee although she will have to face a primary from her ideological right as well.

Republicans have had their fair share of recruitment problems, too, most notably in Iowa, where the party has watched a cavalcade of candidates bow out even as Democrats landed their first choice in Rep. Bruce Braley. In Nebraska, Gov. Dave Heineman's (R) decision not to run means a more wide-open Republican primary, but the state's strong GOP tilt likely keeps the race from being all that competitive.

The national political environment in which these races are being run has, according to nonpartisan analyst Stu Rothenberg, moved in Republicans' direction of late as well -- thanks to a series of scandals and investigations that have foisted negative attention on the Obama White House. "The change in focus creates much more danger for Democrats that 2014 will be a referendum on the Obama administration, and increases the chances of stronger Republican turnout," Rothenberg writes in his May 21 newsletter.

Because of that shift nationally, Rothenberg moved five Democratic seats -- Montana, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska and North Carolina -- into more vulnerable territory. Charlie Cook, another independent political handicapper, currently rates 11 Democratic-held seats as "lean Democratic" or worse for the party; there is not a single Republican seat rated as that vulnerable by Cook.

Assuming Republicans lose none of their own seats -- the only possibilities are Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and the open seat in Georgia -- and win the two Democratic seats where they are clear favorites right now (South Dakota and West Virginia), that would leave them needing four more pickups to win the majority.

To get there, they would need to win two-thirds of the remaining Democratic seats in jeopardy: open seat contests in Iowa and Montana as well as endangered incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.

Neither of the open seats looks like great chances right now -- no GOP candidate in Iowa and the likelihood that popular former Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) runs in Montana -- which would mean that to get the majority, Republicans would need to beat all four targeted incumbents. Possible, but not probable.

Still, developments over the first six months of the year have worked in Republicans' favor. They need another six good months -- a surprise retirement by a Democratic incumbent, an unexpected recruitment success or failure -- to build on their momentum and make their chances of a Senate takeover a true tossup.