AUSTIN — The Texas economy could lose up to $8.5 billion if state lawmakers pass a so-called transgender bathroom bill or other anti-LGBT legislation, a new study from the Texas Association of Business claims.

"We now face overwhelming data about the risk of damage to the economy and reputation of our great state resulting from legislation that would allow for discrimination," association president Chris Wallace said Tuesday at a news conference outside the state Capitol in Austin. "Businesses from across Texas have come together to urge the Texas Legislature to reject discrimination and embrace public policy that keeps Texas open for business."

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has made passing a so-called bathroom bill — which would ban transgender people from using the restroom that corresponds to their gender identity — a top priority during the legislative session that begins in January. Republican House Speaker Joe Straus said the legislation is not a priority for him, and enterprises large and small, including the NCAA, have warned its passage could threaten ties with Texas.

Reyna Cox (left) and Evan Adams took part in a Transgender Day of Remembrance event at the town square in Denton last month. (Jason Janik/Special Contributor)

According to two studies the Austin-based St. Edwards University performed for the business association, Texas could face between $964 million and $8.5 billion in lost GDP, up to 185,000 lost jobs and significant impact on the state's tourism and convention economy.

In the first study, completed in October 2015 by a team of MBA candidates employed at various companies such as Apple and Wells Fargo, researchers looked at actual or predicted economic losses in states such as Arizona, Indiana and Louisiana that have passed or proposed legislation that could roll back LGBT rights. They then used these numbers to extrapolate potential losses in Texas.

For the second study, completed in April, the researchers surveyed 125 businesses at random to gauge their opinion of state lawmakers' past proposals to strengthen Texas laws that could allow shops and companies to reject business from LGBT people. These two studies were supplemented by "additional research, case studies and media coverage related to expanded discriminatory legislation in other states," the final report stated.

If Texas passes a bill similar to North Carolina's House Bill 2 — which banned transgender people from using the bathroom that corresponds to their gender identity — the state could lose up to $246 million, the study claims. This estimate takes into account the threat of losing tourism revenue only from the 2018 NCAA Men's Final Four (San Antonio), Women's Final Four (Dallas), SXSW (Austin) and F1 Racing.

The $8.5 billion in potential losses is based on a projection that Texas could lose up to 0.5 percent of GDP if it passes legislation similar to Indiana's Senate Bill 101, which expanded the state's so-called Religious Freedom Restoration Act to prohibit cities from passing local rules that ban discrimination against the LGBT community. That bill was later amended to include some protections for LGBT people, but not before state lawmakers and then-Gov. Mike Pence were pummeled with criticism for endorsing the legislation.

Indiana's bill has cost its capital city at least $60 million in lost revenue as of January 2016. In North Carolina, PayPal and Deutsche Bank stopped planned expansions in the state, and the city of Charlotte estimates it lost $130 million when two major sporting events were pulled after HB2's passage. The losses have been cited as a top reason for Democrat Roy Cooper's recent win over Republican Gov. Pat McCrory.

A bathroom bill hasn't been filed in Texas, but Patrick has given it a low bill number to indicate that when it is proposed, it will receive Senate priority.

Sen. Bob Hall, R-Edgewood, has already filed legislation that would mimic Indiana's by overturning local ordinances that protect LGBT Texans from discrimination in housing, employment and more. He's also invoked legal language from the Jim Crow era to propose laws that would urge county clerks in Texas to deny same-sex couples marriage licenses.

In addition to Patrick's promises to focus on bathroom legislation, the state is also locked in a heated court fight with the Obama administration over new public school rules meant to protect transgender students. It's unclear whether Texas would need to continue this fight under an administration headed by President-elect Donald Trump, who has said the issue of transgender rights should fall under state control.

Speaking at the news conference Tuesday, SXSW chief operating officer Hugh Forrest said the organizers of the annual festival had serious concerns about Texas passing legislation that could be perceived as discriminatory.

"We at SXSW are extremely concerned about the negative impact of impending statewide legislation," Forrest said. "SXSW supports the Texas Association of Business in opposing any discriminatory legislation."

Several other business leaders joined the Texas Association of Business and SXSW at the event, including Duff Stewart of Austin's GSD&M Advertising; business and technology network TechNet's executive director, Caroline Joiner; and Austin Democratic Reps. Celia Israel and Donna Howard.

After the event, Israel spoke to The Dallas Morning News about her experience as one of just two LGBT members of the Legislature.

"We're used as a political distraction so my colleagues can feel safe during a March primary," Israel said in a nod to the upcoming House elections next year. "They appreciate that I'm just Celia. It was difficult a couple of times last session. It felt ugly. But I never felt that my colleagues were personally trying to hurt me. But I think by me just being me, it helps to personalize it for them. So, that's all that I know how to do it."