Justin Verlander getting blasted by the shitty White Sox today. Since the start of June, Verlander's ERA is 4.27, his WHIP is 1.48, his average fastball velocity has sat 92.9, after averaging 94.3 last year, 95 the year before. Fourth straight year of velo decline, this one is the steepest. Lowest chase rate of last five years. Second-highest contact rate in that span. Very big spike in walk rate, nearly one more walk per nine innings. 2.4% jump.

There's gotta be something wrong with him. I don't know what it is, and it's kind of crazy to consider a 4.26 a terrible year, but we're talking about a pretty big sample size of 11 starts here. When he's been bad, he's been really bad. Has some spectacular outings in that span. 50 strikeouts, 26 walks in 71.2 innings.

He's the type of guy who could roll out of bed and throw a no hitter on any given day, but I wonder if the Tigers are starting to get concerned.

Last edited by skatingtripods on Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?

If you're talking Ubaldo they may or may not have an option. Depends on how you read into this:4 years/$10M (2009-12), plus 2013-14 club optionssigned extension with Colorado 1/27/0909:$0.75M, 10:$1.25M, 11:$2.8M, 12:$4.2M, 13:$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14:$8M club option ($1M buyout)2014 option only if 2013 option is exercised (may void 2014 if traded)From: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... d-indians/

Depends on if the 2014 option was/will be voided or not because we got him and this arrangement from CO.

I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.~~~Annie Savoy-"Bull Durham"

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?

Next to none ILO.

For two reasons, 1. I think they see the Hybrid Paul Byrd/Joe Borowski act he's pulling. Guy is on about as lucky a run as you can be on. How many two guys, on bullet right at somebodys can you string together? 2. I think they treat him like they understand number 1. They don't get him out after 5 1/3 cause he's already at 175 pitches, they get him the hell out cause they know they are pressing their luck.

They deserve credit for finally getting it through his head that the days of throwing 97 are over. He's staying within himself now. Problem is that his stuff is really pedestrian - and he'll still lose command often. Plus, again, he a 5 inning guy.

My guess is they can't wait to get rid of him, especially because they are getting some results from some of the young guys.

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?

I wish he would take his talents somewhere else...

"Cocaine is a hell of a drug" - Originated from a famous skit in Dave Chappelle's "Chappelle's Show". The skit would portray Rick James, usually high on cocaine, preforming doing crazy and stupid things, such as smacking Charlie Murphy in the face. Rick James would frequently explain away his actions by saying "Cocaine is a hell of a drug".

Verlander might be going thru a little dead arm action right now. They should skip his turn once or something to get him some rest. I traded him for Prince Fielder in my fantasy league and I'm hoping it doesn't get veto'ed as a unfair trade

"Cocaine is a hell of a drug" - Originated from a famous skit in Dave Chappelle's "Chappelle's Show". The skit would portray Rick James, usually high on cocaine, preforming doing crazy and stupid things, such as smacking Charlie Murphy in the face. Rick James would frequently explain away his actions by saying "Cocaine is a hell of a drug".

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?

Next to none ILO.

For two reasons, 1. I think they see the Hybrid Paul Byrd/Joe Borowski act he's pulling. Guy is on about as lucky a run as you can be on. How many two guys, on bullet right at somebodys can you string together? 2. I think they treat him like they understand number 1. They don't get him out after 5 1/3 cause he's already at 175 pitches, they get him the hell out cause they know they are pressing their luck.

They deserve credit for finally getting it through his head that the days of throwing 97 are over. He's staying within himself now. Problem is that his stuff is really pedestrian - and he'll still lose command often. Plus, again, he a 5 inning guy.

My guess is they can't wait to get rid of him, especially because they are getting some results from some of the young guys.

I hope this is the case, but I'm not so sure. I don't think they'll retain Kazmir, in part because he's pitching himself into a decent contract and his health will forever be an issue. I don't know if they'll want two of Carrasco, Salazar, and Bauer in the rotation. The free agent crop is mediocre, but they could find a one-year stopgap to limit the exposure of the young kids. Of course, they tried that with Myers and it blew up in their faces.

There's two ways they can look at Jimenez, and they're polar opposites. They can take your approach, which I agree with because it's 100% correct, or they can cite his improvement in the traditional pitching metrics and say that they don't want to give up any viable starting pitcher.

I would hope that a front office as sabermetrically-inclined as the Indians would be digging deeper than the surface (although the surface ain't pretty to look at either) and get rid of Jimenez.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Huge controversy in my longtime rotisserie baseball league at the beginning of the month when a Verlander trade was protested and overturned based on dumping. The ruling was that the guy trading Verlander didn't get enough back in return.

Verlander's been garbage since then, so the guy who wanted him should be pretty happy.

bookelly wrote:Don't forget the Little Cowboy is back next year. Gives you Zach, Justin, Corey, Josh and one of the three yutes. I'm sure they'll find a reclamation project a la KaZmir or Pavano.

I'd rather spend that Ubaldo and Myers money on KaZmir and see if we can't get him for 3/24 or 2/15+ an option. He'd still be in line for a fat contract at 32 years old if he proves himself.

Wonder where Tomlin stands in the pecking order. It would help his case if he can make some September appearances, obviously in mop-up or blowout situations if we're in contention.

I love his makeup. His stuff is average at best. Much cheaper alternative to Ubaldo that would have a shot at putting up similar numbers. I would take 26 starts of a 4.25 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.03 xFIP like his 2011 campaign. That's good enough to be a 5th starter, especially with a team-friendly contract.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

bookelly wrote:Don't forget the Little Cowboy is back next year. Gives you Zach, Justin, Corey, Josh and one of the three yutes. I'm sure they'll find a reclamation project a la KaZmir or Pavano.

I'd rather spend that Ubaldo and Myers money on KaZmir and see if we can't get him for 3/24 or 2/15+ an option. He'd still be in line for a fat contract at 32 years old if he proves himself.

Wonder where Tomlin stands in the pecking order. It would help his case if he can make some September appearances, obviously in mop-up or blowout situations if we're in contention.

I love his makeup. His stuff is average at best. Much cheaper alternative to Ubaldo that would have a shot at putting up similar numbers. I would take 26 starts of a 4.25 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.03 xFIP like his 2011 campaign. That's good enough to be a 5th starter, especially with a team-friendly contract.

Guy is a Quality Start machine. Didn't he set the record? Or tie it? All you can ask for out of the #5 is a QS...and the Little Cowboy delivers at 97%.

I think his contract was discussed before and the answer is that the 2014 option was voided when he was traded to Cleveland, so he's a free agent at the end of the season. Not 100% sure, but I think that's the situation.

Even with the option, I doubt the Tribe would give him $8 million next year.

But it's interesting that his ERA since June 1 is nearly a full run lower than Verlander's.

Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him).

Speaking of velocity, it's not unusual for pitchers to gain a little after recovering from TJ. I wonder if Tomlin will come back throwing a little harder. If so, he would be a legit option for the #5 spot.

bookelly wrote:Quality start is 6+, 3 ER or less. Which sort of annoys me because 6 IP 3 ER is still a 4.50 ERA, which nobody considers to be a good ERA over the course of a season.

If you get your team into the 6th only giving up 3 runs, you've put them in a position to win, although I would agree that 6IP and 2 ER might be more 'quality'. Most managers would be thrilled to get 6 and 3 out of their 3-5 starters every time out, though....

bookelly wrote:Quality start is 6+, 3 ER or less. Which sort of annoys me because 6 IP 3 ER is still a 4.50 ERA, which nobody considers to be a good ERA over the course of a season.

If you get your team into the 6th only giving up 3 runs, you've put them in a position to win, although I would agree that 6IP and 2 ER might be more 'quality'. Most managers would be thrilled to get 6 and 3 out of their 3-5 starters every time out, though....

No, I agree. I don't remember what the exact expression was for it, but I read an article about enhanced quality starts that were 7 IP and 2 ER or less.

You certainly have a good chance to win if you get 6 IP and 3 ER.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Prosecutor wrote:So Ubaldo's FIP (4.36) is nearly a run higher than his actual ERA over that time period (3.42). You're saying that the Tribe's great defense is making his ERA much lower than it actually should be.

Wow. That's some defense.

Well, no, not necessarily.

In Trading Bases, Joe Peta talks about "cluster luck", which is situational hitting that far exceeds batting with the bases empty or is well above league average. It's something he looks for when predicting regression the following season for certain teams.

Jimenez's left on base rate in June was 84.1% and in July it is 80.5%. League average in the AL for starters is usually around 72%. Jimenez allowed 52 baserunners in 32 June innings and 34 in 20.2 so far in July. His June ERA was 3.09 and his July ERA is 3.92.

Remember when we used to dread Jimenez pitching out of the stretch?

Bases empty: .271/.353/.470Men on: .213/.328/.329RISP: .228/.343/.372

He's getting lucky.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....

You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....

You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....

You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....

You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....

You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Am I Here Again? wrote:....when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.

What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.

I agree. BUT when you trade top prospects it is with the understanding that it could come back to bite you in the ass. AND you expect equal value on what you receive. I think most of us figured, after seeing how poorly Ubaldo pitched for us, that we got the short end of the stick. Fortunately, the two guys we gave up haven't fared any better. In hindsight we didn't get bit. That was my point. If that had happened, you can bet I would be as vociferous with my complaints as anyone else around here. Who knows, Pom & White just might suddenly find it. Or not. I'm sure we'll all be back here griping if they do.

Wish I could remember how many pitching prospects actually succeed once they get to the majors but it's not a guarantee. Something like 1 out of 10 end up being good.

I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.~~~Annie Savoy-"Bull Durham"