The Forecasters

Larry DeBoer says he is “passionate about dispassionate analysis” of
government policy and translating that policy for the people who need to
understand it most.

Since
joining the Purdue
University faculty nearly 29 years ago, this
agricultural economist has spent many of his days studying policy changes and
explaining exactly what they could mean for Indiana state government, school
districts, and cities and towns. DeBoer has worked on tax and finance issues
for the nonpartisan Indiana Legislative
Services Agency since 1988, and he contributes to
annual state revenue forecasts.

“This
fits perfectly with Purdue Extension because
I make no recommendations or endorsements. I just want to get answers about
what might happen when policy changes are made,” DeBoer says.

One
example is DeBoer’s examination of the financial impacts of Indiana’s property
tax caps—a constitutional amendment voters passed in 2010 that limited property
tax bills to 1-3 percent of gross assessed value, depending on the type of
property.

“The new
tax caps are a simple idea that really have limited property tax bills, but
they have more complex consequences. The tax bills of homeowners are the
revenue for all local governments,” he says. By capping property taxes, the new
policy also limited the amount of income available for local governments and
school corporations.

DeBoer
assessed and interpreted a number of scenarios to get a better understanding of
what those tax caps would mean for communities, including tax cuts and the loss
of public services from reduced tax revenue. He then presented his findings at
public workshops and worked individually with local government
officials—something Highland clerk-treasurer Michael Griffin appreciates.

Griffin
marvels at the depth of DeBoer’s knowledge of such complex matters and his
ability to explain the issues in easily understandable ways. “I have a very
high regard for his gift of distilling complex matters into very accessible
information for audiences from public officials to interested citizens,” he
says.

Informed Decision-Making

Chris Hurt also is
a Purdue Extension agricultural economist, but that’s where he and DeBoer
differ. Hurt, who focuses on commodities markets and marketing, works mainly
with Indiana farmers, landowners, farm-input suppliers, and business managers
at grain elevators, packers and ethanol plants.

And while
he can’t predict the future, Hurt says he can think about the variables that
could affect incomes and help others do the same. “The decisions farmers and
agribusiness professionals make now could affect their businesses 20 years in
the future,” he says. “From the smallest farm to the biggest agribusiness, we
want to help them make sound decisions.”

“We have
to help people understand that an increase in corn prices doesn’t automatically
turn into giant increases in the cost of a steak,” he says. “It’s also
important that our policymakers understand the issues and analyze the decisions
they make.”

Drought on Everyone’s Radar

A vast
majority of decisions Indiana farmers and agribusiness professionals have to
make are closely related to the state’s climate. Climate affects every single
Indiana resident, state climatologist Dev Niyogi well
knows.

Niyogi
works in the Indiana State Climate Office based at Purdue. The office doesn’t forecast daily weather,
but collects and analyzes historical data to learn more about Indiana’s climate
patterns.

Niyogi
and colleagues report their findings to the public through workshops, school
education programs and collaborations with other agencies. “I get to learn more
every day and translate it for people around the state,” he says.

Niyogi’s
research and education roles were thrust into high gear in 2012 as Indiana
suffered one of the worst droughts in state history. During that time, he
worked with farmers, policymakers, Extension professionals and the media to
provide a better understanding of the impact of the drought and to forecast how
long it might last.

“Drought
has been the million-dollar issue this year, and it’s not just a lack of
rainfall. Indiana is a highly weather-sensitive state, and everything in the
last year has been unusual,” he says. “Getting the drought status right and
coordinating with other agencies has been essential.”

Though the forecasters work in
different areas, they stand on common ground: their analysis of complex issues
is rivaled only by their ability to help citizens interpret and understand the
subjects as well.