I think TiVo could further differentiate their offering by offering a Cloud backup of a subscribers programs and/or offering a high-end unit with some redundancy on disc drives. Essentially Carbonite for the DVR.

That's what Boxee is trying with Boxee TV but it does not seem to playback well.

That's what Boxee is trying with Boxee TV but it does not seem to playback well.

True however Boxee is trying to Stream TV from the Cloud. I was thinking of it as only an online backup service. Of course, the cost of providing every TiVo user 0.5 - 2 TB of online storage might be cost prohibitive for TiVo. I suppose they could charge a service fee for that as well.

While I completely agree with your stance as well, you also have to realize that based on the quote above, since 2007 if you've been using their wondeful equipment and paying the "DVR, extra outlet, mirroring Fees, yada yada yada" which are in the $20-50 or more per month range, then you've more than paid for a TiVo or two, or that upgrade they're supposedly giving you for "free", no?

Umm, actually, you're making my point for me. The answer is No. I pay nothing, nada, zero for that DVR. It's free for life as part of my package, and before you say that well, the package is more expensive as a result -

No. If I did not have the DVR my monthly fees would not go down a single penny.

But my neighbors with FiOS and Comcast DVRs are always complaining about missed recordings. I don't care if it is free. If it doesn't record what I want then it is worthless. My neighbors typically miss more recordings every few months than I have in over ten years of using TiVos.

I sort of agree with that. Missed recordings on Comcast SA8300HD boxes are what drove me to Tivo, to be honest. I totally agree that if it not recording reliably, it's a brick. There are two problems with that situation now, however....

First, I switched to FiOS at the same time I moved to Tivo. I got that VZ DVR for free. The UI kind of stinks, but while other Tivo boxes have died and been repaired/replaced, the VZ box has never had a single issue. It has not missed recordings. Now I'll admit, I only use it in one room and it is not used often, but it works. It's basic, but it works, it's free, if it breaks or there is a compatibility issue they replace it for free. The whole home experience is far superior to what Tivo has offered up until now, and they've been doing it for years.

Second, believe me - my Tivos have missed recordings. Having both Tivo and VZ boxes in my house, it's so easy to see where the Tivo guide is incorrect far more than the VZ guide for some reason. I cannot explain why, since they both get content from a 3rd party service. While the VZ moto quality has IMHO improved, TiVo quality has degraded. Just my experience, not necessarily fact.

But the most important thing somebody else already said. By virtue of the fact that we are having this discussion on this forum, we're already not representative of the general public who will make TiVo either a success or a failure. Most people just think of it as TV. They're not going to pay out the cost of a used car to get what they can try - and return at no cost - directly from an MSO.

Look, it's very easy to see the sides here. The problem is that here is how the two sides in this discussion are coming out.

One side is made up of Tivo users who also are willing to openly consider the effects of:

a) The up front capital investment required to see the benefits of Tivo, because clearly and in virtually every instance, paying monthly subs for Tivo service is more expensive.

b) The fact that Tivos DO die, just like any other device. Tivo does not manufacture their own drives, etc. Those are commercially available components which mean they have the opportunity for defects. I've had several fail within the first year. I've got the receipts and reference numbers to prove it. And all were stationary, and plugged into UPSs for their entire live. Others may have had better experience. But claiming that a better experience is the "norm" is the same as being the one guy who bought a Audi in the 80s that did NOT have a brake issue, and claiming that because you didn't, the problem does not exist.

The other side of the argument wants to disregard those points in particular and call them meaningless or inaccurate.

For the record, I have not paid a single , solitary, fraction of a cent, for my VZ DVR. I also have a VZ set top box in one room. That I am paying for, however there is no Tivo model today that is as cheap as that STB/DVR combination. I have been experiencing the VZ "whole home solution" for several years. It works. It has worked - for far longer than Tivo. It's not pretty, it's not fancy, but it works. And it's reliable.

Here is what is hard for some to swallow. Let me be perfectly clear.

1) Tivo can ONLY be less expensive IF the customer purchases lifetime service at the time of equipment purchase. That is the ONLY way I could ever come up with the number to make it work. In addition, the following MUST also take place.

2) The equipment must NEVER fail outside of warranty, or if it's in the extended 3 yr period with lifetime, you MUST be able to negotiate the elimination of the $99 fee.

3) You must never ever change your mind. Meaning, that as opposed to with an MSO offering, where if you choose you could turn your DVR in today and stop getting charged tomorrow, with Tivo you're all in.

4) There must NEVER be any MSO related changes that might eliminate feature/function of your devices. And you need to be happy about the idea that the MSO may release new functionality/content that you simply cannot use. Examples? SDV. Or, perhaps the "upgrade" VZ is doing right now that will likely make some content unavailable (permanently) on series 3 devices.

All of us are on this site because we like Tivo capabilities and are willing to pay a premium for them. Some of us also would like them to be more competitive and realize that it doesn't matter worth a darn if everybody here is happy. What matters is whether the general public is happy, and this place is NOT representative of the general public.

To say that it's reasonable to expect users to shell out way more than $1000 up front, knowing that they can't return after 30 days, is a whole heck of a lot to ask.

You may have been given a free box and had to continually re-do your contract to get that. Most people dont get those deals

So Tonto that

Sorry but not true. I do nothing but pay my bill, contact support when there's an issue, etc.

I will agree that not everyone had the opportunity to get a free box. It varies. But I did, and so did thousands of others. I also can't speak for TWC or other providers. It's always going to vary. However I don't want people misrepresenting the facts at least about they relate in this case.

Point is, the numbers will always vary. But one thing won't. That is, you need to shell out all that money up front with Tivo to try and make it competitive. Also, the cost model MOST people use includes resale value of Tivo with lifetime as part of how it makes the most sense. That's all I'm saying.

True however Boxee is trying to Stream TV from the Cloud. I was thinking of it as only an online backup service. Of course, the cost of providing every TiVo user 0.5 - 2 TB of online storage might be cost prohibitive for TiVo. I suppose they could charge a service fee for that as well.

That is really a good idea. Don't know about others, but I would be willing to pay a premium to "protect" data on at least one of my DVRs. Matter of fact, that is one service fee that, so long as it's reasonable, I would be more than willing to pay. Cost should not be terribly prohibitive, so long as the terms of service were reasonable. For example, restoration may take a couple days due to bandwidth management, etc. But it would be worth it!

Cloud backup that includes recorded shows probably would violate copyright protections for content providers and probably also CableLabs regulations, (especially any recordings with non-zero CCI byte) so I doubt TiVo would even consider going there.

Cloud backup that includes recorded shows probably would violate copyright protections for content providers and probably also CableLabs regulations, (especially any recordings with non-zero CCI byte) so I doubt TiVo would even consider going there.

That's a contractual issue. Rights management issues such as this for use as nothing but non-interactive backup can be worked out from a legal perspective. Data providers as well as business entities such as Sunguard, IBM, etc, have been making millions and millions of dollars annually.

The key is making sure that the content is truly backed up in a protected, and "non-usable" format so that it cannot be used unless restored back to a target device. That's the legal issue, which can be overcome.

The technical challenge is bigger, since encryption today is tied essentially to a hardware unit specific label - effectively hashing the MAC or ESN of the device into the encryption key for the content. That's always been a frowned upon solution for enterprise solutions, since key management becomes a nightmare.

I think TiVo could further differentiate their offering by offering a Cloud backup of a subscribers programs and/or offering a high-end unit with some redundancy on disc drives. Essentially Carbonite for the DVR.

I think the market for this is extremely tiny. It's like having a generator for when your refrigerator fails. For most people, if a Tivo fails they will pick up a new one and do without for the few days it takes to have it replaced.

The only * to this is if Tivo finds a way to use the cloud for off-site viewing of recorded content. Instead of offering Sling-box type connection to view anywhere off the actual box, Tivo could have view anywhere from the cloud. The legal implications are probably too big to overcome.

........................3) You must never ever change your mind. Meaning, that as opposed to with an MSO offering, where if you choose you could turn your DVR in today and stop getting charged tomorrow, with Tivo you're all in.

............

Of course you can change your mind. if you got lifetime you just sell your boxes for close to what you paid with minimal loss.
I sold Premieres a year or two after I received them and still received close to what I originally paid for them. Considering I had been using them during that time period, that was excellent.

Of course you can change your mind. if you got lifetime you just sell your boxes for close to what you paid with minimal loss.
I sold Premieres a year or two after I received them and still received close to what I originally paid for them. Considering I had been using them during that time period, that was excellent.

And now we're back to the argument where the equipment HAS to hold it's value, etc.

Look, I'm not trying to bash that approach. But your argument is fundamentally flawed. You can NOT just change your mind and log into a site to return your equipment, and never get charged the next month for it. You have to FIRST spend a great deal of money to get a "different" solution. Then, package up your existing stuff. Then try and sell it. Then hope that the market remains as kind as it did for you in the past.

I can think of thousands and thousands of people who lost their entire life savings because they had the same attitude. "Well, it always held it's value in the past, why would it not in the future"? Talking about the real estate bubble.

Let me be even more clear. With the MSO solution, you can order and receive a couple DVRs within days. You can try them for 3 days, 3 months, or whatever. You can then return them, and the only thing you paid is for what you actually "used". That is a certainty. Your solution in "changing your mind" simply is not the same. Nobody knows how much you will recoup. And, it's all the hassle of selling, etc. As opposed to sticking it in a box and dropping it off at a nearby UPS store.

And the fundamental issue here is that the market has proven, time and time again, that people are simply not happy about the idea of forking over $1000 or more up front just to get a TWO room experience (4 tuner plus lifetime plus mini plus lifetime) - or far more. You can try to say that "chances are" they either will come out less expensive in the long run, or that it's way better. But the fact that people live off of credit cards, etc is pure proof that it is month to month expense without long term cost implications that drive the general consumer market. That sir, is a fact. In every single case, sales prove this out. It is why the MSOs solution is so more prevalent to start with, and probably what allowed them to continue to provide increased capabilities while Tivo did not for a while.

I think the market for this is extremely tiny. It's like having a generator for when your refrigerator fails. For most people, if a Tivo fails they will pick up a new one and do without for the few days it takes to have it replaced.

The only * to this is if Tivo finds a way to use the cloud for off-site viewing of recorded content. Instead of offering Sling-box type connection to view anywhere off the actual box, Tivo could have view anywhere from the cloud. The legal implications are probably too big to overcome.

That's an interesting perspective. I think it's very different. When that refrigerator fails, you can remove all those items and stick them in a cooler. And what perishes, for the most part you can very easily replace. When a Tivo fails, you're dead. You can't save anything to a "cooler". You're done. You can "hope" that you get some or most of it back by searching for it, but in that case, it's not through Tivo - it's probably through Roku or elsewhere.

Especially in the event that you have multiple Tivos, this isn't at all about device availability. As a matter of fact, were Tivo to provide a service where your content could be moved from one device to another without loss of quality, it would be different. But it's about "content". And yes, I know about TTG, etc. Don't care. The general public does not want to have to jump through hoops for this. It is the entire reason for "cloud backup" services that are becoming more and more common for other data devices. People want this stuff to "just happen". Manual backups are fraught with failure, bad process, etc. It's a very fragile process.

I have no interest in being able to view the content remotely - to me this is about insuring that what you recorded, you can view (even if it's delayed a bit) in the event that the hardware device fails.

Umm, actually, you're making my point for me. The answer is No. I pay nothing, nada, zero for that DVR. It's free for life as part of my package, and before you say that well, the package is more expensive as a result -

No. If I did not have the DVR my monthly fees would not go down a single penny.

Nope, actually wasn't going to say that. I didn't realize or remember you get it free. That doesn't mean it's not true in other's cases though. Which actually makes my feelings with regard to it true, that the decision should be "personally made" on a case by case basis, period. No one is, or has to be right, on either side of this ongoing argument.

And now we're back to the argument where the equipment HAS to hold it's value, etc.

Look, I'm not trying to bash that approach. But your argument is fundamentally flawed. You can NOT just change your mind and log into a site to return your equipment, and never get charged the next month for it. You have to FIRST spend a great deal of money to get a "different" solution. Then, package up your existing stuff. Then try and sell it. Then hope that the market remains as kind as it did for you in the past.

I can think of thousands and thousands of people who lost their entire life savings because they had the same attitude. "Well, it always held it's value in the past, why would it not in the future"? Talking about the real estate bubble.

Let me be even more clear. With the MSO solution, you can order and receive a couple DVRs within days. You can try them for 3 days, 3 months, or whatever. You can then return them, and the only thing you paid is for what you actually "used". That is a certainty. Your solution in "changing your mind" simply is not the same. Nobody knows how much you will recoup. And, it's all the hassle of selling, etc. As opposed to sticking it in a box and dropping it off at a nearby UPS store.

And the fundamental issue here is that the market has proven, time and time again, that people are simply not happy about the idea of forking over $1000 or more up front just to get a TWO room experience (4 tuner plus lifetime plus mini plus lifetime) - or far more. You can try to say that "chances are" they either will come out less expensive in the long run, or that it's way better. But the fact that people live off of credit cards, etc is pure proof that it is month to month expense without long term cost implications that drive the general consumer market. That sir, is a fact. In every single case, sales prove this out. It is why the MSOs solution is so more prevalent to start with, and probably what allowed them to continue to provide increased capabilities while Tivo did not for a while.

it's no different with other electronic devices. Even twenty years ago I would get electronics, like a receiver, CD player VCR etc. I'd try it out a few months and if I decided I wanted something else or a better version came out, I would sell it for most if not all that it cost me. I don't see a TiVo DVR as being any different.

Nope, actually wasn't going to say that. I didn't realize or remember you get it free. That doesn't mean it's not true in other's cases though. Which actually makes my feelings with regard to it true, that the decision should be "personally made" on a case by case basis, period. No one is, or has to be right, on either side of this ongoing argument.

Dave, I absolutely agree that it's a personal -and situation specific - issue. One of the problems here is that we're talking about what each of us has experienced, what we currently "know" and what we really "value". The point I've been making very frequently is that all of that is pointless in this discussion

The issue here is about "generalities" because that is what will drive Tivo to either gain market penetration or lose market share. So, we all need to take our "Tivo centric" glasses off in that case and look at the situation through a technology agnostic lens. There is no doubt in my mind that there are, and have been, situations where Tivo solutions have in the long term been less expensive than MSO solutions. None at all. There is equally no doubt in my mind that the opposite has been true in some cases.

The point is that in each and every case, one thing holds true. That is, that in order to gain those savings from Tivo or to even attempt to gain them, the consumer must pay 100% up front. Buy the box, and buy lifetime service (for that box). And that if there are both in, or out of warranty failures, you also pay that.

It doesn't matter if you "might" be able to recoup your money down the road. You might now. Or, if you have or have not had equipment failures. You certainly could. And you could end up paying for them.

It matters that all of that is not debatable, and those are key issues for the general market. When Tivo had true "lifetime service" - meaning for the subscriber and not the box - it was a very VERY different story. I have no issues paying the extra money and/or taking the risk as well as the huge cost up front in order to have Tivo. But I don't make the mistake of believing that just because I do, any of my neighbors will. Because they don't, and they won't - in large part. And, if I'm going to pay that premium, I'd darn sure better get premium service, and that includes premium pre-sales product support and technical support - AS WELL AS better than just "parity" of important functions that the MSOs have provided for years.

it's no different with other electronic devices. Even twenty years ago I would get electronics, like a receiver, CD player VCR etc. I'd try it out a few months and if I decided I wanted something else or a better version came out, I would sell it for most if not all that it cost me. I don't see a TiVo DVR as being any different.

Sorry - totally disagree 100%. As a matter of fact, I could not possibly disagree more. You are only presenting one side of the discussion in order to try and defend that position. It is fundamentally flawed.

If, during that same time period, different "distributors" would allow you to "lease" those products, with no up front cost, never have to worry about repairs, never have a long term obligation, and if in some cases those products were superior in feature sets to the "high end audiophile" products, AND if those products also stored content that could not be moved to another product, then we can start to have that discussion.

Imagine this. Let's say consumers have two options.

First, they can spend $75K for a high performance, high economy car up front. They can "believe" that resale value of that car will hold strong. AND - that car requires a specific fuel (let's call it "Tivoline" for kicks) in order for most of its stuff to work.

OR, they can spend a small amount in monthly lease payments on a different car. It's not as nice looking, it's slower, doesn't handle quite as good and is not as quiet inside. But, there are some things it can actually do that the $75k car cannot. And you could care less about who made it, because if the company that produces it goes out of business, you just get a new one at no cost. At any time they can return the car and never pay another penny. If the car ever breaks, it gets fixed or replaced at zero cost. For as long as you have it. If the road systems require changes to the car, you get a new car for free.

Let's say that over 8 years or so, the $75k car turns out to be less expensive.

I don't know, if you lose your kids when you trade in the cheaper car because they were still inside, I guees it wouldn't be very popular.
Of course the kids would be more important than TV shows though.

Of course if the car keeps breaking down like the cable company DVrs, even getting it replaced for free would be a PITA.

Dave, I absolutely agree that it's a personal -and situation specific - issue. One of the problems here is that we're talking about what each of us has experienced, what we currently "know" and what we really "value". The point I've been making very frequently is that all of that is pointless in this discussion

The issue here is about "generalities" because that is what will drive Tivo to either gain market penetration or lose market share. So, we all need to take our "Tivo centric" glasses off in that case and look at the situation through a technology agnostic lens. There is no doubt in my mind that there are, and have been, situations where Tivo solutions have in the long term been less expensive than MSO solutions. None at all. There is equally no doubt in my mind that the opposite has been true in some cases.

The point is that in each and every case, one thing holds true. That is, that in order to gain those savings from Tivo or to even attempt to gain them, the consumer must pay 100% up front. Buy the box, and buy lifetime service (for that box). And that if there are both in, or out of warranty failures, you also pay that.

It doesn't matter if you "might" be able to recoup your money down the road. You might now. Or, if you have or have not had equipment failures. You certainly could. And you could end up paying for them.

It matters that all of that is not debatable, and those are key issues for the general market. When Tivo had true "lifetime service" - meaning for the subscriber and not the box - it was a very VERY different story. I have no issues paying the extra money and/or taking the risk as well as the huge cost up front in order to have Tivo. But I don't make the mistake of believing that just because I do, any of my neighbors will. Because they don't, and they won't - in large part. And, if I'm going to pay that premium, I'd darn sure better get premium service, and that includes premium pre-sales product support and technical support - AS WELL AS better than just "parity" of important functions that the MSOs have provided for years.

I'm with you Jr.! It's really about whatever the person decides to do, they're going to justify (mostly in their own mind) that decision. I'll be the first to admit my guilt of doing that exact thing, and I am doing that right now as we speak while I have 3 different systems in my home, (DirecTV Genie w/ Clients, TiVo w/ Minis, Windows Media Center/HDHomerun Primes/Ceton Echos) evaluating which one has the best quality, value, service, etc. so I can make an informed decision. Each time I try to decide one or the other, I catch myself justifying to myself and my wife why I think this one's better than that one, even so far as to overlook glaring faults and weaknesses (read: Ceton Echo!)

Let's say that over 8 years or so, the $75k car turns out to be less expensive.

Which do you think will be more popular? That's a far better analogy.

Let's keep your analogy going. In year 9, you can sell the $75k car for $18k because it still works and has low mileage or you can keep using it and pocket the savings. You can always sell it next year or the next if it is still working.

In year 9 of the 'free' car, you are still paying monthly for a box you don't own. Sure, maybe a slightly newer box was released with new features, but the features are still ho hum. Plus your monthly price has increased every year since year 2! It's now clear the easy, cheaper choice originally is an expensive, worthless anchor.

I understand people have different risk tolerance, and there are people that can't or won't do basic math. The problem with Tivo is that they are competing against MSOs with 'free' DVRs, and consumers aren't aware that they have a retail option.

Let's keep your analogy going. In year 9, you can sell the $75k car for $18k because it still works and has low mileage or you can keep using it and pocket the savings. You can always sell it next year or the next if it is still working.

In year 9 of the 'free' car, you are still paying monthly for a box you don't own. Sure, maybe a slightly newer box was released with new features, but the features are still ho hum. Plus your monthly price has increased every year since year 2! It's now clear the easy, cheaper choice originally is an expensive, worthless anchor.

I understand people have different risk tolerance, and there are people that can't or won't do basic math. The problem with Tivo is that they are competing against MSOs with 'free' DVRs, and consumers aren't aware that they have a retail option.

Sorry, but I think your answers are wrong. Because you again fail to include the total cost of ownership. In year 9 of the $75k car, the engine and tranny just blew. You're done. In year 9, the $75k car is 9 years old. In year 9, the "lease" car is brand new.

Your math simply does not work. It is neither realistic nor accurate. Total cost of ownership includes risk and likely mechanical failure, which WILL occur on some percentage of devices over some segment of time. That is a fact. You can play Russian roulette and hope it isn't you, but there is not a darned thing you can do to really avoid it.

There is no possible scenario where you can INSURE that Tivo is ALWAYS no more expensive. And there is no scenario period in which you can avoid up front expense on a major basis. And there is no scenario period in which the deployment and management is as seamless as the MSOs. This does not mean that Tivo is without value. It has great value. But that is not in a direct price point competition with MSOs. Customers have gone to leased DVRs because they're cheap, require no up front investment, have little (or no) risk, and incur no maintenance/ repair obligation. Customers use Tivo because the UI is superior, and because at some point they had the most comprehensive feature set. Tivo dropped the ball and lost the lead in innovation some time ago (whole house, streaming) and is struggling to catch up.

I'm with you Jr.! It's really about whatever the person decides to do, they're going to justify (mostly in their own mind) that decision. I'll be the first to admit my guilt of doing that exact thing, and I am doing that right now as we speak while I have 3 different systems in my home, (DirecTV Genie w/ Clients, TiVo w/ Minis, Windows Media Center/HDHomerun Primes/Ceton Echos) evaluating which one has the best quality, value, service, etc. so I can make an informed decision. Each time I try to decide one or the other, I catch myself justifying to myself and my wife why I think this one's better than that one, even so far as to overlook glaring faults and weaknesses (read: Ceton Echo!)

You're taking the exact approach I did, and typically do. I have redundant RG6 feeds to each room, so when I moved from Dish to Comcast, I had both running at the same time for a period to compare. Did the same thing on Comcast to VZ, and the same thing with VZ DVR to Tivo. I still maintain my free (yes, absolutely free for life, no strings or hooks) DVR in addition to my Tivos.

That way, you and I can observe actual FACTUAL and DATA DRIVEN characteristics rather than talking about how much we love/hate Tivo and how our "neighbors" hate their DVRs. I realize not everyone can or will do that, but it sure takes the bias out of the conversation.

Your math simply does not work. It is neither realistic nor accurate. Total cost of ownership includes risk and likely mechanical failure, which WILL occur on some percentage of devices over some segment of time. That is a fact. You can play Russian roulette and hope it isn't you, but there is not a darned thing you can do to really avoid it.

The math works whether you want to admit it or not. It's pretty simple to compute total cost of ownership using some basic assumptions, and the payback period is a lot less than the 8 years in your analogy. Of course, like a vehicle or any product you buy vs renting and paying forever, there is risk. Risk is the only factor that comes into play with buying a Tivo vs taking the 'free' DVR from a cable company.

Just like a vehicle, all mechanical systems will fail or require repair at some point. Some people want a new car every 3 years, so they sign a lease every 3 years. These people will pay a fortune over their lifetime to rent a car instead of buying a car. Sure they don't have to worry about repairs or extensive maintenance, but they are paying a steep premium for this. This is the same for people renting DVRs from their cable company. No worries about repair or paying repair bills, but you pay a much higher total cost - forever.