Reuters/Ipsos MORI marginals poll: Conservatives still have work to do

Sorry, bit late with this one. Had to take my five-year-old son for an eye test — tricky since he can't actually read yet. Reuters published an Ipsos MORI poll of key marginals this morning. The poll ignored seats in which the Tories need a swing of less than 5 per cent and concentrated on those in which it needed a swing of up to 9 per cent. In other words, this wasn't a poll of the most vulnerable Labour seats, but of the second-most vulnerable — the seats the Conservatives have to win to form an overall majority.

The results are a mixed bag for the Tories, whom the poll puts at 38 per cent, compared to Labour at 41 per cent and the Lib Dems at 11 per cent. That's a swing of 5.5 per cent from Labour to the Conservatives in these constituencies since 2005 — still hung Parliament territory. Of the 1,005 adults polled between March 30 and April 5, 37 per cent thought Gordon Brown best understood the problems facing Britain, compared to 30 per cent who thought the same of David Cameron. However, when asked to choose between a "fresh approach" and "experience", 57 per cent plumped for the former compared to 40 per cent for the latter.

The best bit of news for the Tories is that the 5.5 per cent swing compares favourably with the 4 per cent swing recorded by the last Ipsos MORI marginals poll. So it's trending in the right direction.