The progress of the EU Settlement Scheme so far

The EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) is a process to register EU, EEA and Swiss nationals living in the UK and to assign them either with settled or pre-settled status. These are new immigration statuses that confer the right to live and work in the UK after it leaves the EU and the right of free movement is revoked.

Since June 2019, the Home Office has released monthly statistics on the number of applicants. This Insight is updated monthly to reflect these. The data below is based on July 2019 statistics.

How many people have applied to the scheme so far?

The scheme opened fully on 29 March 2019, following a testing phase from August 2018.

We don’t know exactly what proportion of people who need to apply have done so. There is no centralised record of the number of EU citizens living in the UK so we have to estimate this number using surveys, such as the Annual Population Survey and the UK Census.

There are
other groups whose size is impossible to estimate at all, for example non-EU
family members of EU citizens and people who are eligible under the scheme but
are currently living outside the UK.

In 2018,
there were an estimated 3.35 million
people with EU, EEA, or Swiss nationality living in the UK. This excludes
Irish nationals, who can apply but usually do not have to.

The timeline shows the cumulative total who have applied, by month. The Home Office will be releasing monthly updates on the number of applications.

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Who has applied?

The chart below shows the estimated proportion who have applied, by nationality. The black lines are error bars showing the uncertainty around the main estimate. These are based on a 95% confidence interval.

The upper and lower estimates are based on a 95% confidence interval around the population estimate. Upper and lower estimates cannot be calculated for EEA countries and Switzerland because we do not know the confidence interval of the combined population estimate. Luxembourg has no error bars because the lower estimate of the population is zero.

We also have data on the place of residence of
people who have applied and can compare this to the estimated number of EU
citizens in each constituent part of the UK. The second chart below shows the
resulting estimates of the percentage who have applied in each area.

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In most cases, the EUSS requires applicants to scan their identity documents using the ‘EU Exit: ID Document Check’ application which is currently available only for Android devices. In the event that someone cannot scan their documents digitally, they can do so for a fee at one of 77 document scanning centres.

This interactive map shows the locations of document scanning centres across the UK. Scanning centres are shown as pink dots on the map and around each one is a shaded area showing a 30-minute walk, 30-minute drive, and 60-minute drive (one way) from the centre.

When the application becomes available on iOS devices, which the Government has stated is to happen by the end of 2019, we might see a sharp rise in applications.

About the settlement scheme

The EUSS
exists because, in most cases, people residing in the UK based on rights
derived from EU law will no longer
have a legal right to reside in the UK once it leaves the EU. These individuals
must apply for the new status. If they do not then they could be unlawfully
resident in the UK in the future.

The main
categories of people who must apply are:

EU (excluding Irish), EEA and Swiss citizens

Family members of an EU citizen who are not themselves British or EU citizens

Notes to nationality chart: The error bars are based on a 95% confidence interval around the population estimate. Error bars cannot be calculated for EEA countries and Switzerland because we do not know the confidence interval of the combined population estimate. Luxembourg has no upper error bar because the lower estimate of the population is zero.

Notes to place of residence chart: There is some inaccuracy here, as the baseline population is EU (excluding Irish), EEA, and Swiss nationals, while the data on applications by part of the UK includes applications from all nationalities (including Irish and non-EU/EEA/Swiss). It is not possible to draw error bars because the confidence interval around this population estimate is unknown.

About the authors: Georgina Sturge is a Statistical Researcher specialising in social and general statistics at the House of Commons Library. Oliver Hawkins is a Data Science Lead at the House of Commons Library.

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