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2015 (continued)

This AEI report strives to shed light on these uncertainties with the aim of providing realistic scenarios for the global energy outlook to 2030. Goldthau's chapter finds that Russia will remain one of the world’s top energy producers and exporters, but its energy future will hinge on several factors outside of Moscow’s control, including Western energy sanctions and European regulations. Should Europe shift away from dependence on Russian energy, the Kremlin will feel more pressure to court China.

By Susan M. Lynch, Program Assistant, International Security Program; Web Manager, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program and Evan Perkoski, Research Fellow, International Security Program

International Security Program Research Fellow Evan Perkoski, a Ph.D. candidate in Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, is the 2015 winner of the Patricia Weitsman Award for Outstanding International Security Studies Section Graduate Paper. He received this award at the recent Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, which was held in New Orleans, Louisiana, from February 18–21, 2015.

"Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s suggestion that our region needs a joint Arab military force to deal with escalating threats from armed factions in lands like Libya is one of the most ridiculous and non-credible ideas to emerge in the Arab world for many years. The idea of joint Arab action for common security needs is a good one in principle, but given the legacy of Arab military actions at home and abroad, it makes no sense whatsoever, on many counts."

An enduring diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis has eluded negotiators. But even if the Minsk peace talks’ newly announced cease-firewere to hold, there is widespread agreement in the West that Russia has engaged in a quasi-war in Ukraine. Moscow has acted with some circumspection, employing intelligence agents and plainclothes special forces (the so-called little green men), but in the past several months, it has become much more brazen, deploying thousands of regular troops, backed up by artillery and armor. There is also consensus that Russian activities in Ukraine are destabilizing European security and have violated numerous international legal norms.

By William H. Tobey, Senior Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

In Washington, 10 years is a long time — more than two presidential terms. In the antique land of Persia, however, it is the blink of an eye. Those negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran need to equal the patience of their Iranian counterparts.

On February 18–20, 2015, twenty-four experts gathered in Berlin to explore approaches to improving the process by which research on climate change is assessed—with a focus on the social sciences (economics, political science, policy studies). Participants discussed potential reforms in the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and also the development of assessment processes complementary to the IPCC.

After Professor Nikos Passas (Northeastern University) led an MTA Seminar on February 25, titled "Illicit Flows: What They Hide and How to Counter Them", MTA Associate Aaron Arnold interviewed Pasass on Iran's Verification Regime.

By Simon Saradzhyan, Fellow, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

One argument in favor of the West arming Ukraine is that additional weapons will deter Russia due to Vladimir Putin’s sensitivity to Russian casualties. There is no official data on Russian casualties in Ukraine, though one Russian NGO claims to have identified 260 Russian soldiers and volunteers who have been killed in action in eastern Ukraine.Reported attempts to conceal the cause and location of some of these deaths indicate that Russia’s leaders are sensitive to killings of active-duty Russian soldiers in the neighboring country.

"... [M]ost of us live in the real world, where actions have consequences for the rest of us. And that means not just those disappointed immigrants who believed they were beginning the process of securing citizenship. It also includes those who work at DHS and the people that depend on them."

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We host a busy schedule of events throughout the fall, winter and spring. Past guests include: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, former Vice President Al Gore, and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.