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NFL Picks

Week 7 NFL Picks: Sunday Betting Ticket

Away favorites are 14-10-2 ATS this season, and Jason Lake is going with the most intriguing road faves on the Week 7 NFL odds board: the defending Super Bowl champions. Who needed that jet sweep anyway?

Jason’s Record After Week 6: 21-22 ATS, 5-10-1 Totals

Profit: minus-13.99 units

The pick-six giveth, and the pick-six taketh away. Last Sunday’s betting ticket went 1-2 after Kirk Cousins (yay) and Geno Smith (boo) wove their Week 6 magic. Oh well. The Jets have already played in Week 7, but it seems they’re not done messing around with our NFL picks. Let’s go straight to what has suddenly become the most interesting matchup on the board.

Sunday: Seattle vs. St. Louis (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
We had our eye on this game as a possible “divisional dogs of seven or more” pick, but the Rams (1-4 SU and ATS) are stubbornly hanging on at +6.5 despite nearly the entire world laying wood on the Seahawks (3-2 SU and ATS). That’s not our motivation for making Seattle our choice, though. We’re here at the chalk buffet because Percy Harvin has been traded to the Jets for a travel voucher and a bag of kicking tees.

This could be a case of addition by subtraction. According to the post-trade chatter, Harvin had become way too much of a locker-room nuisance to justify his paycheck. There have been some complaints about Harvin’s production, too, although he does lead the team with 22 catches, plus he’s run 11 times for 92 yards. Wait, why are we doing this again? Because Seattle’s roster is deep, receivers are fungible, and a happy workplace is a productive workplace.

Sunday: Minnesota vs. Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
We’re sticking with chalk in this one. The Bills (3-3 SU and ATS) didn’t quite get the job done last week against the New England Patriots, but they kept it close enough to have a shot at the matador cover. The Vikings (2-4 SU and ATS) are coming off an ugly loss to a Detroit Lions team that was without Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush; Teddy Bridgewater chucked three interceptions against the dominant Detroit defense.

Buffalo’s pretty good at that, too. Football Outsiders has the Bills ranked No. 7 in defensive DVOA, although they are more weighted toward stopping the run (No. 17 pass, No. 2 rush). We still feel good about their chances. So do the sharps – the Bills have an average bet size of $399 at press time, while the Vikings have one of the smallest averages this week at $28.

Sunday: New Orleans vs. Detroit (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
Let’s give a warm welcome back to the Saints (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS). So we’re a little nervous about this one, since New Orleans is fresh off a bye week, and we’re seeing some big money come in on the Big Easy: a $446 average bet, compared to $49 for the Lions (4-2 SU and ATS). We’re keeping our bet size small, too, but we’d be going against all our handicapping principles if we didn’t take Detroit at these NFL odds.

It’s pretty simple: the Lions are outperforming the Saints this year by a wide margin. Detroit is No. 7 in overall DVOA with a plus-4.3 SRS. New Orleans is No. 25 in DVOA with a minus-7.0 SRS. The Lions “should” be favored by a couple of touchdowns at home. New Orleans claws back some of that value by virtue of the bye week, and it does look like the aforementioned Calvin Johnson (22 catches) won’t play this Sunday, either. Say, didn’t Harvin also have 22 catches for Seattle? The word of the day is fungible.