Equities and Alchemy

Buyer Beware

October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.- Mark Twain

1/10/17

One brutal chart

One brutal chart from the biggest hedge fund in the world explains everything

Working class people from the Rust Belt played a large part
in getting Donald Trump elected earlier this
week. These same types of people also played a role in
voting the UK out of the European Union earlier this year.
Trump's
campaign targeted people in once-booming manufacturing towns who
felt the punch of globalization as jobs moved overseas.
The Brexit campaign had similar success on the areas of Britain
that hadn't shared in the prosperity of the UK capital,
London.
This chart from $150 billion Bridgewater Associates, the world's
biggest hedge fund, shows just how hard people across the US and
Europe have been hit by globalization, and the loss of jobs to
other countries and to technology.

Middle
skill jobs have been hurt more than others since
1990.Bridgewater client
note

The graph is based on data from MIT economist David Autor
and shows how much middle-skill jobs, which generally
require some education after high school like community college
classes, have declined in the past 26 years. And it really
explains an awful lot.
"What this election highlighted more than anything is that there
are lot of people in this country who, regardless of their
political leanings, are hurting," Jeffrey Solomon, CEO of Cowen
and Company, said in a note. "Many who feel like their
voices haven’t been heard for a long time."
Autor defines
middle-skill jobs as white collar clerical, administrative, and
sales occupations, and blue collar production, craft and
operative occupations.
In an April 2010 research document, Autor said: "The decline in
middle-skill jobs has been detrimental to the earnings and labor
force participation rates of workers without a four-year college
education, and differentially so for males, who are increasingly
concentrated in lowpaying service occupations."
Which populations tended to vote for Trump? White men, typically
over 45, typically without a college degree, who believe the
economy is in bad shape and
that the effect of foreign trade is to take jobs away from
America.
In the UK, it is a similar story. Brexit voters were
typically
45 and over and
didn't stay in education beyond high school. In other
words, the individuals who, in years gone by, may have taken up
an apprenticeship, and found their way into a middle-skill,
technical role, but have been replaced in recent years by
overseas labor or robots.
That's not to say that these individuals haven't benefitted from
globalization. Bridgewater estimates that the developed world has
seen a 0.3% boost to annual growth, which over 40 years adds up
to incomes that are on average 12% higher.

"Yes, these workers have benefited from cheaper goods, but the
negatives, including job losses and stagnant incomes, are more
directly visible and easily attributable to global competition,"
Bridgewater's Jason Rotenberg and Jeff Amato wrote in a Friday
client note that was viewed by Business Insider.
The benefits of globalization are indeed harder to feel.
Smartphones may be cheaper than they otherwise would be, for
instance, but that's little consolation to someone who can't
rely on the same line of work as his father.
Here is what Wall Street dealmaker Ken
Moelis told Business Insider's Matt Turner recently:

"Turner: It feels like there is a group of
people that has benefited from globalization, and a group of
people who feel like they haven't. Those two worlds seem to be
colliding.

Moelis: Let me say this: There is a perception
that that group has not benefitted. As I said, without going too
deep, without globalization I am not sure everyone would be able
to have a supercomputer in their pocket at the low cost.

Moelis: But that is hard to understand, so there
are some very difficult things to understand that globalization
is providing, that people really think are just here but really
are a function of some of that. There are some very difficult
arguments.

Turner: Right. Real wages haven't increased, but
if things are getting cheaper and you're able to now afford a
supercomputer in your pocket with that wage that hasn't increased
in five years, it is difficult to pick that out.

Moelis: If you can watch the ball game on the
bus, when you used to miss it ... and by the way, I think that
life expectancy over the last 10 years has increased
dramatically. You're living longer.

You ever go out to a restaurant now? You can get quality food —
you can go out and get the best food that was available 20 years
ago. They'll put it on a plate, you'll sit in a plastic chair
because nobody values the chair, the white tablecloth, the maître
d', but they'll put on your plate some great food for what used
to be available at Applebee's prices. There are some really nice
things going on, some external values being delivered to people.
It's a story that is hard to tell."

The disconnect is also a story of growing income inequality.
While the richest 5% of US households have seen incomes rise by
50% since 1990, incomes have barely grown for 80% of the
population, Bridgwater notes below.

In
the US, the richest 5% of have grown by 50%, while the bottom 5%
of households have seen barely any income
growth.Bridgewater client
note

About Me

Jennifer believes we live in the garden of Eden and I believe that we are destroying it. Our saving grace is within ourselves, our faith, and our mindfulness. We need to make a conscious effort to respect and preserve all life.

OVERPOPULATION

THE WORLD is facing a series of interlinked crises which threatens billions of people and could cause the collapse of civilization.

Climate change, pollution, food shortages, diseases, wars, disasters, crime and the recession are all conspiring to ravage the globe and threaten the future of humanity.

Democracy, human rights and press freedom are also suffering.

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