Obama's marriage muddle

Later in the day, White House press secretary Jay Carney reiterated that Obama’s position on the issue hasn’t changed. Senior Obama campaign strategist David Axelrod told reporters that Biden’s remarks were in line with Obama’s own long-held position that individual states should have the right to pass equality laws.

The topic is guaranteed a third day of headlines as Obama heads to Albany on Tuesday to appear with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who spearheaded the state’s successful push to legalize gay marriage last year. The two are not expected to take questions from reporters, but the contrast will be the focus of the event.

Still, gay marriage likely would have turned into a campaign issue even if Biden, Duncan and Donovan hadn’t spouted off.

“It’s hard to imagine a significant issue in which the center of gravity is shifting faster than gay marriage in this country,” Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said. “It’s particularly important to young people. It’s become a marker for younger voters, whether you are part of modern times or not. A lot of younger people, and I’m talking about young Republicans too here, just can’t understand that this is an issue for anybody.”

In the past year, a group of donors and operatives, ranging on the Republican side from former Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman and hedge fund executive Paul Singer to David Geffen on the Democratic end, has waged a series of fights for gay marriage. The group has the patina of bipartisanship and has chosen its public words on the issue carefully.

National polls show a growing majority support marriage rights for same-sex couples. Still, the issue is anything but a safe one for either party. On Tuesday, voters in North Carolina — which Obama won by a mere 14,000 votes four years ago — are expected to vote for a gay marriage and civil-union ban supported by a coalition of Republicans and socially conservative black Democrats.

“We are going lose in North Carolina today and that will make the POTUS campaign think they are right, and the activist crowd say now is the time for leadership,” Rosen said. “This thing gets messier as the election goes on. It is a function of the timing of the issue, not anyone’s fault.”

If that weren’t enough of a headache for Obama, a group of LGBT groups and progressive politicians are vowing to insert a pro-marriage equality plank in the Democratic Party platform during this fall’s convention in Charlotte.

“Independents favor [gay marriage],” argued Evan Wolfson, president of the group Freedom to Marry, which is pushing for the plank fight.

“I think happily for the president, doing the right thing is doing the right thing politically,” Wolfson said, adding: “Americans respect leaders who show courage and authenticity and who stand for something. And even those who may not support the freedom to marry can accept the president saying, ‘This is what I believe.’”

Some activists saw in the Biden and Duncan comments an effort to thwart the platform fight by making clear where the administration is heading.

“They may be sending a signal to the community that the administration is ‘evolving,’ so to speak,” prominent donor and activist Jeff Soref said. “They may also be trying to head off a harder debate to handle, which is this fight [at the convention].”

Platforms don’t usually matter. But the Carolina coronation will likely be a news-free event and the national media will be quick to seize on any conflict, especially one involving such a hot-button social issue. A major floor fight, with thousands of bored journalists packing the hall, won’t exactly help resurrect Obama’s dented hope-and-change image.