Monday, November 12, 2012

COMPLEXITIES OF DEALING WITH CHINA

B.RAMAN

(Based on my intervention during a Panel discussion
on November 9,2012, on the book titled “ India’s Foreign Policy--- Coping With
the Changing World” written by Shri Muchkund Dubey, our former Foreign
Secretary. The book has been published by PEARSON. Other Panellists were Shri
Dubey and Shri C.V.Ranganathan, former Indian Ambassador to China and France.
The discussion was jointly organised by the Chennai Centre For China Studies
and the Rajaji Centre For Public Affairs, Chennai )

Just as one used to talk of comprehensive national
strength and comprehensive national security, one now talks of comprehensive
diplomacy. From a uni-dimensional concept, diplomacy has become a
multi-dimensional concept dealing with various dimensions such as political,
economic, commercial, military, technological etc. Shri Dubey is one of the
distinguished practitioners of comprehensive diplomacy that we have . He has
handled creditably bilateral as well multilateral diplomacy and the various
aspects of comprehensive diplomacy. He was associated for many years with
economic and commercial diplomacy and had overseen the transition from the era
of the GATT to that of the World Trade Organisation ( WTO). His observations in
the book should be of tremendous benefit to political leaders, professionals
and the sections of the general public interested in the evolution of our
foreign policy and in the exercise of our diplomacy.

2. Normally, when retired public servants and
policy-makers write, they tend to bat for their service and department. A
refreshing aspect of Shri Dubey’s book is that he refrains from batting for the
Indian Foreign Service and the Ministry of External Affairs. He bats for the
nation and its interests and does not hesitate to admit deficiencies in the
exercise of our diplomacy, analyse the reasons for them and suggest
correctives.

3. I was struck by his admitting how our defeat by
Japan in 1995-96 in the election to the non-permanent seat in the UN Security
Council (UNSC) was a wake-up call and showed that India had no stature in the
international community. He rightly attributes this lack of stature to India’s
poor economic strength and its inconsequential role in global economy.

4. Economic strength is the basic component of the
comprehensive national strength of any country. Without economic strength no
country can make its presence felt and make itself respected in the
international community. We have since paid more attention to building our
economic strength. We are more consequential than we were till 1995-96, but
still not as consequential as China is.

5. This became cruelly obvious during the recent
Presidential campaign in the US. Whereas there were frequent references to
China in the context of the global economy and the USA’s economic problems,
there were few specific references to India, which still does not count. If
India wants to be taken more seriously in the world of diplomacy and as an
emerging power, it has to pay more attention to building its economic strength.

6. The book is not a comprehensive analysis of the
evolution of our foreign policy. It is an updated collection of essays written
by Shri Dubey on India’s relations with the US, Russia, China and Bangladesh
and certain other aspects of which he has first hand knowledge. There is no
detailed discussion of India’s relations with Pakistan and the Arab world.
Pakistan does figure in his discussion of India’s relations with the US and
China.

7. I would draw attention to three chapters devoted
by Shri Dubey to a discussion of India’s relations with China and underline my
views on this subject even at the risk of my views not being in consonance with
those of Shri Dubey.

8. In my writings and speeches, I have been
repeatedly drawing attention to our obsession with Pakistan and to our relative
neglect of the importance of building up our knowledge and expertise on China
despite our humiliation at the hands of China in 1962. We still do not understand
the complexities of our relations with China adequately and what impact these
complexities will have on our future stature as an emerging Asian power.

9. These complexities have three dimensions----our
pending border dispute with China, the Tibetan question which will have an
impact on the border dispute and the Damocles Sword ofthe China-Pakistan nuclear and missile axis
hanging over our head.

10. I am confident that given time and patience,
our diplomats are capable of finding a mutually satisfactory solution to the
border dispute and the Tibetan question. But, I am worried that not adequate
attention has been paid to analysing the implications of the China-Pakistan
nuclear and missile axis. Is there a way of weaning China away from Pakistan
and what are the options and incentives and disincentives that we haveor that we ought to have in this regard? This
is a matter that requires constant study by our governmental and
non-governmental analysts and policy-makers.

11. We talk of the Pakistani mind-set and the
mind-set of the Pakistani army relating to India. We cannot understand Pakistan
and deal with Pakistan effectively unless we have a clear comprehension of
those mind-sets.

12. Is there a Chinese mind-set towards India and
what impact it has on its policies towards India? In my view, there is a
Chinese mind-set which is predominant not in its Army, but in its Party
leadership and cadres which strongly influences its determination to keep
adding to Pakistan’s nuclear and missile strength.

13. Why does the Chinese Party leadership want to
maintain the nuclear and missile axis with Pakistan? To confront India with the
spectre of a two-front nuclear threat? To undermine India’s efforts to emerge
as an Asian power on par with China? How to deal with this axis strategically
and tactically?

14. We still do not have satisfactory answers to
these questions. I do hope that Shri Dubey himself and other experts will pay
greater attention to these questions in future and contribute to a
comprehensive understanding of China and to the evolution of a comprehensive
strategy foraddressing the complexities
of our relations with China.

15. Dealing with China satisfactorily is the most
difficult aspect of our comprehensive diplomacy. This question has not received
the attention it deserves. ( 12-11-2012)