Game Theory, Body Scanners and Security Theater

I’m back… and regularly again. After a brief hiatus from blogging to build two of my portfolio companies, I am back to to being the scourge of the ultra right wing posse and the loony left.

Game theory is a personal interest of mine and is widely quoted and misunderstood so it’s hard to master. In a nutshell, it says people or parties act in their own self interest in the conduct of their activities, affairs and negotiations. That’s easy enough to understand but there is a second and perhaps more important aspect in the theory – people or parties will make rational informed decisions as they pursue their self interest.

Here lies the craziness behind all the security theater the country is undertaking. Al Qaeda’s rationale is something we do not fully comprehend or understand, even to this date.

Take for example the use of full body scanners. Scanners are now the “hot technology” du jour and is the nexus of debate between privacy advocates and security hawks. Privacy advocates say it’s a virtual body strip search. People concerned with health want limits on it’s image depth and penetration to body surface fearing radiation-type risks and destruction of your DNA. Security hawks want to put one in every gate in every airport worldwide.

Consider the following stories.

Time Magazine did a story on drug mules getting paid a lousy $3000 a trip to swallow 120 packets of cocaine wrapped in condoms. Each cocaine condom packet was 1 and 1/4 inch long. Considering the intestines are 27 feet long, that makes for a lot of cocaine and a quick $3000.

You can put a lot of cocaine or PETN in a drug mule or terrorist

Did the drug mule act in his best interest? He clearly thought so. Was it rational? Clearly not. Customs caught one of these mules because one of the condoms burst and the guy had a massive cocaine overdose. How many of these guys got through customs? I’ll bet you more than one and perhaps several dozen hapless mules got in and got paid their lousy $3000.

Saudi Arabian deputy minister of interior, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, survived a bombing attack launched by an al Qaeda cell based in Yemen. The assassin used the same PETN explosive to attempt the assassination but he hid the explosive in his rectum with a remote trigger mechanism. There are conflicting reports later of PETN being in his underwear, but the payload location is irrelevant. It’s better to assume, PETN was up his rear end.

An article published in Sada al-Malahim, Al Qaeda’s online magazine titled “War is a Trick,” the group’s leader, Abu Basir al-Wuhayshi, advised would-be al-Qaida members to use small amounts of explosives to kill “apostates” and Western nationals, including on passenger aircraft and in airports.

What’s the game theory perspective?

Western nations do not understand the mind of the terrorist. These terrorists believe in becoming martyrs and going to heaven for blowing themselves up. If they get to the airport or any target for that matter, it’s game over. If some crackpot drug mule will swallow cocaine for $3000, what is stop some guy who wants a fast pass to heaven from shoving PETN up his rectum?

Guess what? Full body pat downs that even includes your crotch area and whole body scan systems WILL NOT catch something inside your body. All the security theater we will spend money on and all the privacy debates will not catch PETN mules. We are applying game theory rules as if we’re playing with ourselves. We are playing with terrorists who have different self interests and concepts of reason.

Does it really make a difference whether they blow themselves up in the crowded TSA lines or the airplane?

The point is there should be far more focus on identifying these bastards before they even get to cab headed to the airport. Sure there is the lone wolf phenomenon but it has proven to be far more rare than one would expect. None of the known thwarted terrorist attempts involved lone wolves. Intelligence simply has to get better before the airport check-in counter.

And in the airport, we just have to do what the Israelis do in Ben-Gurion airport. It will piss off privacy advocates and civil rights activists but if society wants safe air travel, there is a price to pay and an emasculated body scanner system is not enough.