Has Anyone Noticed The Run On Resale Contracts?

Has anyone done any analysis on what Disney is ROFRing? I was thinking that Disney might be more aggressive on loaded contracts because then they can sell them right away. If it is stripped, then Disney would have to wait until the contract has all of the current UY points.

I can't image a direct buyer who would wait for any amount of time before before being able to use their points. With a stripped contract, Disney would have to "find" points if they tried to resell a stripped contract.

What do the experts think about this?

John

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I do know that my stripped purchases got through ROFR, with the majority being at a lower price point. I needed the time to NOT use points, as I was committed elsewhere until I could use points, and banking would've put us over the top too much.

I really wish DVC would come out with some informational announcement clarifying the waitlist terms and classic resort price increases. Where is the communication? I don't even recall an email introducing Claire Bilby's replacement.

Well I am surprised that so many resales are being bought. I do understand all the the factors, but still, what will happen when/if the resale restrictions are announced?

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I think they want to keep people guessing. Look at what all the speculation has done for their direct sales. Business seems really good for DVC these days, so good that it appears to have depleted resale inventory and forced prices up.

Has anyone done any analysis on what Disney is ROFRing? I was thinking that Disney might be more aggressive on loaded contracts because then they can sell them right away. If it is stripped, then Disney would have to wait until the contract has all of the current UY points.

I can't image a direct buyer who would wait for any amount of time before before being able to use their points. With a stripped contract, Disney would have to "find" points if they tried to resell a stripped contract.

What do the experts think about this?

John

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That's probably why my small VWL contract slipped through. I have no points until 2014 but that is fine... I was just happy to have a home at VWL

Has anyone done any analysis on what Disney is ROFRing? I was thinking that Disney might be more aggressive on loaded contracts because then they can sell them right away. If it is stripped, then Disney would have to wait until the contract has all of the current UY points.

I can't image a direct buyer who would wait for any amount of time before before being able to use their points. With a stripped contract, Disney would have to "find" points if they tried to resell a stripped contract.

What do the experts think about this?

John

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I would be very surprised if Disney took any stripped contracts since they would have to shell out money for points and sit on the contracts until the points were there - not good business to tie money up that way.

They are grabbing loaded contracts and I noticed if current year points are in the contract and it is past or in UY they can safely take those and resell them right away. Example: I just had my BWV ROFR'd it was Feb UY with 2013 points - they can now sell those points to direct buyers with 2013 points. If it was an Aug UY contract they would not be able to give current UY points (since Aug is still in 2012 UY) since there are none - again holding the contract! This has only been an observation. Disney is not predictable!

Has anyone done any analysis on what Disney is ROFRing? I was thinking that Disney might be more aggressive on loaded contracts because then they can sell them right away. If it is stripped, then Disney would have to wait until the contract has all of the current UY points.

With a stripped contract, Disney would have to "find" points if they tried to resell a stripped contract.

I would be very surprised if Disney took any stripped contracts since they would have to shell out money for points and sit on the contracts until the points were there - not good business to tie money up that way.

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You are probably right that stripped deeds are not attractive to DVD. However, I can think of two scenarios where a deed, even if it is stripped, is still attractive to DVD. One scenario involves Vero Beach or Aulani deeds that have subsidized maintenance fees. In 2013 alone, DVD is responsible for subsidizing $1.61 per point and $1.55 per point on VB deeds and Aulani deeds, respectively, that qualify for the subsidies. Since DVD may continue to subsidize these deeds for the life of the resorts, it makes financial sense for it to ROFR these deeds whenever possible.

The second scenario is a little more convoluted and may not actually come into play that often. By regulation, DVD must retain ownership of 2% of each resort, which is represented by the total number of points allotted to a resort. A deed that is stripped of current year points still counts toward that 2% requirement. DVD could ROFR a stripped deed just so it has an excess of points above the 2% requirement. Then, it can sell the excess points that it already owned, assuming those excess points have current year points.

You are probably right that stripped deeds are not attractive to DVD. However, I can think of two scenarios where a deed, even if it is stripped, is still attractive to DVD. One scenario involves Vero Beach or Aulani deeds that have subsidized maintenance fees. In 2013 alone, DVD is responsible for subsidizing $1.61 per point and $1.55 per point on VB deeds and Aulani deeds, respectively, that qualify for the subsidies. Since DVD may continue to subsidize these deeds for the life of the resorts, it makes financial sense for it to ROFR these deeds whenever possible.

The second scenario is a little more convoluted and may not actually come into play that often. By regulation, DVD must retain ownership of 2% of each resort, which is represented by the total number of points allotted to a resort. A deed that is stripped of current year points still counts toward that 2% requirement. DVD could ROFR a stripped deed just so it has an excess of points above the 2% requirement. Then, it can sell the excess points that it already owned, assuming those excess points have current year points.

I would be very surprised if Disney took any stripped contracts since they would have to shell out money for points and sit on the contracts until the points were there - not good business to tie money up that way.

They are grabbing loaded contracts and I noticed if current year points are in the contract and it is past or in UY they can safely take those and resell them right away. Example: I just had my BWV ROFR'd it was Feb UY with 2013 points - they can now sell those points to direct buyers with 2013 points. If it was an Aug UY contract they would not be able to give current UY points (since Aug is still in 2012 UY) since there are none - again holding the contract! This has only been an observation. Disney is not predictable!

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The best observation is that Disney is not predictable My year long waitlist came through right when current year points would be available on a stripped contract. I have a March use year and lo and behold guidle called me March 2nd with contract..so they may have had that contract, stripped, and just didn't sale until points were available. Of course that could have been a contract taken back for non payment, but if they have a waiting list they are pretty sure they can sell those contracts as soon as current year points kick in.

The best observation is that Disney is not predictable My year long waitlist came through right when current year points would be available on a stripped contract. I have a March use year and lo and behold guidle called me March 2nd with contract..so they may have had that contract, stripped, and just didn't sale until points were available. Of course that could have been a contract taken back for non payment, but if they have a waiting list they are pretty sure they can sell those contracts as soon as current year points kick in.

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In the almost four years I have been tracking DVD activity on the Orange County Comptroller's website, I can count on one hand the number of deeds I have seen where a buyer is only getting points for a date in the future. If DVD does not have points for the current Use Year, it won't sell the points until the next Use Year has started. Even if a buyer is willing to buy a deed in which the first set of points isn't available until September 2013, DVD won't sell those points until September 1, 2013, at the earliest.