We all have a pretty good idea of who will win in most categories on Oscar night. In the big categories, especially, one (or two) names or pictures have been repeatedly called. So, come Sunday evening where do you see any upsets happening? Or, do you think there won't be any upsets at all?

Among the "big" categories, I think Best Actress is still up for grabs. Sandra Bullock has won virtually every award in 2010 and it very well might be her "time", but I still think someone like Meryl Streep or Carey Mulligan stands a chance.

My pick for Cinematography is and has always been The White Ribbon. I hope it upsets something like The Hurt Locker or Avatar.

The White Ribbon is also a supposed lock for Foreign Language film. However, those who have seen A Prophet (myself not included) seem to really, really like it. Possible upset?

Wed Mar 03, 2010 1:59 pm

Pedro

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

ed_metal_head wrote:

We all have a pretty good idea of who will win in most categories on Oscar night. In the big categories, especially, one (or two) names or pictures have been repeatedly called. So, come Sunday evening where do you see any upsets happening? Or, do you think there won't be any upsets at all?

Among the "big" categories, I think Best Actress is still up for grabs. Sandra Bullock has won virtually every award in 2010 and it very well might be her "time", but I still think someone like Meryl Streep or Carey Mulligan stands a chance.

My pick for Cinematography is and has always been The White Ribbon. I hope it upsets something like The Hurt Locker or Avatar.

The White Ribbon is also a supposed lock for Foreign Language film. However, those who have seen A Prophet (myself not included) seem to really, really like it. Possible upset?

The Best Actress category is the most likely category where an upset will occur. The only person who could feasibly upset Jeff Bridges is Jeremy Renner (a feat that would be talked about for years) and the only thing that can upset Waltz and Mo'Nique is a hydrogen bomb. Meryl Streep COULD win, but she's been way too quiet. The Sandra Bullock train has been campaigning for a while now. Mulligan, on the other hand, won the BAFTA. While those are the BAFTAs, it's possible there will be some overlap in voting. I'll still call Sandra Bullock at the end of the day, but if your name isn't Helen Mirren, I won't be surprised.

After winning the ASC Award, The White Ribbon stands a bigger chance to win. However, I don't think it can take down The Hurt Locker or Avatar. I have zero issues with getting my predictions wrong if The White Ribbon does take the award, though.

The White Ribbon, on the other hand, is not a lock for Best Foreign Language Film. The film is more cerebral than emotional (possibly the same case for A Prophet), which the Foreign Language committee doesn't really appreciate. The Secret in Their Eyes is probably neck and neck with The White Ribbon, but I've heard calls for Ajami, too. I'll be watching all the foreign language nominees this weekend, though, so I'll report back which one of the five seems most tantalizing to the voters.

Right now, the toughest category to predict is Best Original Screenplay. If The Hurt Locker wins, I can't imagine it taking only Picture, Director, and Editing. Although it won for Sound Mixing in its guild, Avatar is probably going to steamroll that category via autopilot voting. If it can't take Cinematography over Avatar, that leaves Screenplay. I guess it boils down to whether or not the Academy feels like honoring Quentin Tarantino a second time (amongst other things, but this is chiefly one of them). I don't know. It's not a call I'm comfortable making.

Ultimately, don't expect Up in the Air to take Best Picture. The only potential upset in that category is Inglourious Basterds.

Wed Mar 03, 2010 2:28 pm

Zeppelin

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Pedro wrote:

The White Ribbon, on the other hand, is not a lock for Best Foreign Language Film. The film is more cerebral than emotional (possibly the same case for A Prophet), which the Foreign Language committee doesn't really appreciate. The Secret in Their Eyes is probably neck and neck with The White Ribbon, but I've heard calls for Ajami, too. I'll be watching all the foreign language nominees this weekend, though, so I'll report back which one of the five seems most tantalizing to the voters.

This. Remember last year, when everyone was SO SURE that either Waltz with Bashir or The Class were going to win, and instead the incredibly sentimental and emotional Departures, a movie no one had seen, won? Right, so something tells me a similar thing is going to happen this year. If The White Ribbon wins I will literally run naked through the streets. I don't have much hope for A Prophet either, but at least it wasn't directed by Michael "Spontaneous Acts of Violence" Haneke.

Wed Mar 03, 2010 7:37 pm

majoraphasia

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Don't put too much money on The White Ribbon winning Best Foreign Language film. Other posters have already made the case as to why something else is almost certainly going to win. I don't see it winning cinematography with The Hurt Locker in contention. The war film is going to win in all the categories that Avatar doesn't. Great as it was, The White Ribbon is a courtesy nomination -- The Academy likes to appear well-versed with their nominations while rewarding general bullshit with the actual win. There are many exceptions. The Godfather, for example.

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The supporting actress trophy always seems to be a door prize... it's just as likely that Penelope Cruz will win as it is Vera Farmiga or the Ms. Kendrick. They'll give it to whomever walks in first.

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Although I'm going on suspicion alone, I think James Cameron is going to take the trophy for Best Director. They'll wait on another year to break new ground for feminism. Or maybe they'll have some cake by awarding The Hurt Locker top prize.

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That about covers it. Nothing too controversial. The REEL question is who is going to take top prize in The Reelviews Academy Awards for Best Moderator. I'll be sending Evenflow8112 my congratulations in advance.

The supporting actress trophy always seems to be a door prize... it's just as likely that Penelope Cruz will win as it is Vera Farmiga or the Ms. Kendrick. They'll give it to whomever walks in first.

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Although I'm going on suspicion alone, I think James Cameron is going to take the trophy for Best Director. They'll wait on another year to break new ground for feminism. Or maybe they'll have some cake by awarding The Hurt Locker top prize.

In any other year, the supporting actress category is as you describe. However, this year we have the steamroller that is Mo'Nique, who's as much of a lock as Christoph Waltz or Avatar for Visual Effects.

James Cameron for Director, on the other hand... that's a discussion. Although he's lost nearly every precursor and made a fool out of himself last year... it is James Cameron. And he did directed a powerhouse of a movie. And he did win the Globes.

In related news, I bring to you a story by Nikki Finke:

"So let me get this straight; Nicolas Chartier who financed The Hurt Locker and is one of the 4 officially credited producers can’t attend the Academy Awards because he sent a mass email that never even mentioned Avatar by name? And the Oscars governing body thinks his badmouthing is so much worse than what nearly everyone in the Best Picture category has done year after year? I find it ludicrous that the Academy of shame has made a decision so lame. So I must ask: is it mere coincidence that Academy president Tom Sherak (at one time a bigtime Fox movie exec), Oscars producers Bill Mechanic (at one time a bigtime Fox movie exec) and Adam Shankman (currently a bigtime Fox Broadcast talent), and Academy Board Of Governors member Jim Gianopulos (currently a bigtime Fox movie exec) all have strong ties to the Avatar studio? The Academy should have leaned over backwards not to appear Fox-sympathetic because of this. (Especially when I have emails from the studio accusing “the Hurt Locker people of running the dirtiest campaign and getting away with it”.) And would this draconian action have been taken if Chartier’s name had been Grazer or Rudin or some other Hollywood insider? I think not. Know that I ask these questions as someone who thinks Avatar should win Best Picture (because it changed the way Hollywood makes movies) and James Cameron Best Director (because he changed the way Hollywood makes movies). So, please, no baseless accusations that I’m biased."

Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:54 am

ed_metal_head

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Pedro wrote:

Mulligan, on the other hand, won the BAFTA. While those are the BAFTAs, it's possible there will be some overlap in voting.

Interesting BAFTA comment. Colin Firth also won the leading actor BAFTA. Anyone give him a chance over Jeff Bridges?

Pedro wrote:

The only potential upset in that category is Inglourious Basterds.

If that happens I will run naked through the streets. Wait, someone's already doing that. Never mind.

majoraphasia wrote:

Although I'm going on suspicion alone, I think James Cameron is going to take the trophy for Best Director. They'll wait on another year to break new ground for feminism. Or maybe they'll have some cake by awarding The Hurt Locker top prize.

I think Avatar has a better chance at Picture than Director solely because of Cameron's antics the last time he won. That "I'm The King Of the World" speech didn't go down too well. Then again, maybe people will vote just so they can hear the greatest Oscar speech of all time.

Phil once proposed a Best Moderator poll, did he not?

Thu Mar 04, 2010 2:10 pm

majoraphasia

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

ed_metal_head wrote:

Pedro wrote:

Mulligan, on the other hand, won the BAFTA. While those are the BAFTAs, it's possible there will be some overlap in voting.

Interesting BAFTA comment. Colin Firth also won the leading actor BAFTA. Anyone give him a chance over Jeff Bridges?

Pedro wrote:

The only potential upset in that category is Inglourious Basterds.

If that happens I will run naked through the streets. Wait, someone's already doing that. Never mind.

majoraphasia wrote:

Although I'm going on suspicion alone, I think James Cameron is going to take the trophy for Best Director. They'll wait on another year to break new ground for feminism. Or maybe they'll have some cake by awarding The Hurt Locker top prize.

I think Avatar has a better chance at Picture than Director solely because of Cameron's antics the last time he won. That "I'm The King Of the World" speech didn't go down too well. Then again, maybe people will vote just so they can hear the greatest Oscar speech of all time.

Phil once proposed a Best Moderator poll, did he not?

He did indeed propose such a pool. I remember it fondly because your name was on the list. And also because I've memorized most of his posts as part of my campaign to teach the world about my interactions with America's Favorite Son. That's three, you doubtful bastard.

It's tough to say regarding the director/picture divide. They'll want to award both movies so the two trophies are almost certainly going to the divorcees. Maybe foolishly, I believe Locker has a better shot at best picture because of its perceived timeliness and shattering importance. The big budget money movie won in 2003... they usually award that movie in cycles. Too soon for Avatar... maybe if it was released this year or the next.

Thu Mar 04, 2010 2:33 pm

calvero

Director

Joined: Wed Mar 04, 2009 7:44 pmPosts: 1404

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Quote:

So let me get this straight; Nicolas Chartier who financed The Hurt Locker and is one of the 4 officially credited producers can’t attend the Academy Awards because he sent a mass email that never even mentioned Avatar by name?

according to the LA Times, there were other emails where he suggested they not only rank Hurt Locker #1, but put Avatar at #10 on their ballots(since with the new system, the film with the most 1st place votes doesn't necessarily win & clearly both will get a lot of 1's)

Quote:

In any other year, the supporting actress category is as you describe. However, this year we have the steamroller that is Mo'Nique, who's as much of a lock as Christoph Waltz

I find it sort of odd Waltz is such a lock. He's a newcomer to Hollywood films, you would think 80 year old Christopher Plummer would have a chance due to his 50+ year career.

Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:03 pm

PeachyPete

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

ed_metal_head wrote:

If that happens I will run naked through the streets. Wait, someone's already doing that. Never mind.

I was once arrested for doing just that at a private beach. True story. Spent the night in jail and everything. You are all some seriously screwed up people for talking to a pervert on an internet forum.

I'm happy with Inglourious Basterds, A Serious Man, or The Hurt Locker winning BP. Obviously, it seems like The Hurt Locker and Avatar are going to be the big winners, and they'll likely split the director/picture awards. That's just too good of an opportunity for the Academy to create more interest in the ceremony itself, rather than worrying about the merits of the movies involved. William Munny says it best, "Deserves got nothin' to do with it."

Thu Mar 04, 2010 3:39 pm

majoraphasia

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Quote:

I was once arrested for doing just that at a private beach. True story. Spent the night in jail and everything. You are all some seriously screwed up people for talking to a pervert on an internet forum.

I don't think of Phil as so much a pervert as "erotically misunderstood". If anything, he's taught us all something about how the grotesque can be beautiful.

Oh. You were talking about yourself, Pete. Hmmm. Awkward moment for me here.

IUm.

*coughs*

Okay then.

Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:29 pm

Pedro

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

This thread just took a hard left. XD

PeachyPete wrote:

ed_metal_head wrote:

If that happens I will run naked through the streets. Wait, someone's already doing that. Never mind.

I was once arrested for doing just that at a private beach. True story. Spent the night in jail and everything. You are all some seriously screwed up people for talking to a pervert on an internet forum.

I'm happy with Inglourious Basterds, A Serious Man, or The Hurt Locker winning BP. Obviously, it seems like The Hurt Locker and Avatar are going to be the big winners, and they'll likely split the director/picture awards. That's just too good of an opportunity for the Academy to create more interest in the ceremony itself, rather than worrying about the merits of the movies involved. William Munny says it best, "Deserves got nothin' to do with it."

It's okay, Pete. I was once pulled over for driving with a dead headlight, but was let off the hook because I had a Pulp Fiction movie ticket in my wallet. I realize this is only tangentially related and not really as bad as your example.... I think I'll go ahead and put a paragraph break here and start talking about the Oscars.

Although that article Nikki wrote made me reconsider for a moment that Avatar was going to take the top prize, I realized that the PGA is doing the same thing the Academy is doing: 10 nominations and a preferential ballot system. The Hurt Locker still won by doing that. That being said, it's still a crap shoot.

eddy_mcmetal_cabeza wrote:

Interesting BAFTA comment. Colin Firth also won the leading actor BAFTA. Anyone give him a chance over Jeff Bridges?

No. XD

Thu Mar 04, 2010 4:48 pm

ed_metal_head

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

I guess we're more or less in agreement that there won't be any major upsets. Hopefully we're wrong. I'd like something major ala Crash. I just hope it's a better movie than Crash though.

Fri Mar 05, 2010 3:10 pm

ADayintheLife1979

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Honestly, I think there is actually a very good chance that Inglourious Basterds will take Best Picture, and not in a "wishful thinking" sense. If The Hurt Locker and Avatar vie for Best Picture at equal levels...the independent vs. the populist...it may cause enough vote-splitting for IB to shine through.

Erik

Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:12 pm

ram1312

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

I can't remember the last time I was somewhat excited for the Oscars. What with these threads and the chance to beat Mr. B...I'll be paying attention.

The movie I'm hoping does the most upsetting, if there will be any upsetting, is Inglourious Basterds. Although, I'm thinking there might not be very many surprises.

Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:15 pm

PeachyPete

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

ADayintheLife1979 wrote:

Honestly, I think there is actually a very good chance that Inglourious Basterds will take Best Picture, and not in a "wishful thinking" sense. If The Hurt Locker and Avatar vie for Best Picture at equal levels...the independent vs. the populist...it may cause enough vote-splitting for IB to shine through.

Erik

I don't completely disagree, and I hope it happens. It's similar to what happens sometimes in sports when voting for something like the Heisman or MVP trophies. Sometimes, especially in college sports, there are 2 worthy candidates on 1 team and they end up splitting a chunk of the votes that would normally go to that team anyway (typically local writers) and someone else sneaks in and wins.

It would be pretty awesome should it happen.

Also, welcome back. It's been many days in the life since your last post. Sorry for that terribly unfunny joke. It's the best I could come up with.

Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:31 pm

majoraphasia

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

ADayintheLife1979 wrote:

Honestly, I think there is actually a very good chance that Inglourious Basterds will take Best Picture, and not in a "wishful thinking" sense. If The Hurt Locker and Avatar vie for Best Picture at equal levels...the independent vs. the populist...it may cause enough vote-splitting for IB to shine through.

Erik

First: I remember you! All kinds of coolness in this forum in the past 24 hours!

Second: I wouldn't hold my breath. I'd be clam-happy if IB won but my guess is they'll give Tarantino the proxy honor with the screenplay trophy. Avatar is too huge to dismiss without one of the Great Big honors and The Hurt Locker will be taking whatever Great Big honors Avatar doesn't. The Academy... I just don't see them honoring a brave movie like IB. Too polarizing. But i really hope I'm wrong. Them would be some tasty words.

Fri Mar 05, 2010 5:39 pm

ilovemovies

Producer

Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 11:04 amPosts: 2258

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Cinematography is the ONE category that I'm rooting for Avatar to win. The camera work in that movie is breathtakingly great!

Sat Mar 06, 2010 10:30 am

ed_metal_head

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

majoraphasia wrote:

ADayintheLife1979 wrote:

Honestly, I think there is actually a very good chance that Inglourious Basterds will take Best Picture, and not in a "wishful thinking" sense. If The Hurt Locker and Avatar vie for Best Picture at equal levels...the independent vs. the populist...it may cause enough vote-splitting for IB to shine through.

Erik

First: I remember you! All kinds of coolness in this forum in the past 24 hours!

Me too. Erik was the Fresca guy! I'm still hoping that he's going to give us the real life story of The Informant!

Sat Mar 06, 2010 11:37 am

gkanchan

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

Guess what guys...I think that most likely:Christoph Waltz will NOT win best supporting actor; they will give it to Christopher Plummer. I'm almost sure.

Sat Mar 06, 2010 8:53 pm

Pedro

Re: Possible Oscar Upsets

gkanchan wrote:

Guess what guys...I think that most likely:Christoph Waltz will NOT win best supporting actor; they will give it to Christopher Plummer. I'm almost sure.

I don't think that will happen. Christoph Waltz has swept nearly all of the precursors, and the precursors are generally a good determiner.

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