I’ve saved this Matt Hinton post from Monday to share with you, because it’s such a perfect summation of where I’m at assessing Georgia’s chances in 2017, and I wasn’t quite ready to write about that. I’m not going to re-post everything he wrote, because you ought to hit the link and read what he came up with in its entirety, but his start…

Backing Into the Red and Black. I honestly didn’t see this coming, but … well, I guess it’s official: I’m on the Georgia bandwagon?

It wasn’t up to me. Every year, I put together a set of national rankings for every FBS team (we’re up to 130 of them now) based on five broad categories — Recent History, Talent/Recruiting, Experience, Offensive Production and Defensive Production; each category consists of three subcategories based on criteria like winning percentage, recruiting rankings, returning starts, etc. The upshot is that none of the results necessarily reflects my off-the-cuff conclusion when I’m eyeballing a depth chart.

So what to make of the fact that, after taking schedules into account, my foolproof system has pegged Georgia — an inconsistent program five years removed from its last division title, coming off an uninspiring, 8-5 finish in 2016 — not only as the runaway favorite to win the SEC East, but as a borderline Playoff contender? No other result at the top of my rankings was nearly as bold compared to the preseason consensus among other outlets, almost none of which project Georgia in the top 10. Am I prepared to defend UGA as a burgeoning elite? Really?

… and his finish…

… in much larger part it’s because Georgia’s pattern of underachieving over the past decade has made the Bulldogs reflexively hard to trust. Obviously Georgia has potential. But what distinguishes this team from the equally talented teams that finished unranked three of the past four years? From the outfit that lost to Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech last year, and only narrowly survived scares from Missouri, Kentucky and Nicholls State?

The first step in answering those questions would be laying a solid, routine-looking whooping on the Mountaineers this weekend, where Georgia is a two-touchdown favorite. It’s still a long way from there to Atlanta in early December, but if the long-term goal is going to become a reality then serving notice that at least the 2017 edition won’t make a habit of playing down to the competition would be a very good start.

… just flat out nail everything I think and feel about this year’s team.

From a logical, intellectual perspective, there are a ton of positives about Georgia — returning experience on defense and at running back, which happen to be two of the most important areas for a team to prosper in the SEC; the best talent base in the division; a coaching staff (starting with the head coach) with a year together under their collective belts; a talent influx over the last two seasons that should help address special teams shortcomings; a schedule that isn’t too daunting (i.e., no Alabama) — that, combined with issues plaguing the key divisional rivals, make me think a 10-2 regular season and a SECCG berth are anything but far-fetched.

Then, emotionally, I remember all the disappointments that have been synonymous with Georgia football — not just last year’s embarrassments against Nicholls and Ole Miss, but flops against Tennessee in ’04 and ’07 that cost them trips to Atlanta; random, inexplicable losses to Vanderbilt; losing two of the last three games to Georgia Tech for no good reason; and, of course, Richt’s last two Cocktail Party debacles — and I can’t avoid the nagging feeling Georgia is still a program that can’t get out of the way of its own shadow. Not only that, but to believe Georgia’s on the verge of a great leap, I have to put an uncomfortable amount of faith in Kirby Smart’s capacity for growth in his second year on the job. When my heart ponders that, it sees 2017 coming out much the same as the previous four seasons have gone.

I believe I’ve mentioned this before, but I’m in a strange place with this. Normally it’s my heart that’s more optimistic than my head, but not this year.

In the end, it boils down to a simple question: does Georgia finally have its shit together in 2017? I wish I could tell you I knew for sure either way, but I don’t. However, I agree with Matt that we’re going to learn a lot from the opener, more than we normally would from watching this team start out against a mid-major program, which, lest we lose sight of Appalachian State’s Sun Belt membership because of what happened ten years ago, is the case. (Lest we also forget, ASU was a team Georgia demolished the last time the two squared off in 2013.)

On Saturday, Georgia doesn’t have to beat the Mountaineers by 39 points to indicate a corner’s being turned (not that I’d complain if that were to happen). But it does have to show noticeable improvement in certain key areas to convince me that the coaches and players have at least located the corner and figured out how navigate it. Mainly that would stem from controlling a game the way an SEC power playing a mid-major squad should control a game.

You don’t have to be an analytic genius to know what areas of the program have to step up to meet that standard of play in the opener. We’ve certainly discussed them ad nauseam here over the course of the preseason. I’m sure the coaches and players have, too. If you’re Georgia, talking’s been the easy part.

One game does not a season make, of course. A solid opening win is nothing more than a good start. If things really are different this year, then that means we’ll see a team capable of sustaining good play from week to week. In that regard, Notre Dame makes for a capable test. Leave South Bend with a win and I expect the program will begin seeing a higher level of national respect. The two games that follow next (Samford and Mississippi State) are winnable ones.

Which brings me to what from here appears to me to be the key game of the season. It’s not Florida, although that likely will be a pivotal game in terms of winning the East. It’s Tennessee. A Georgia team riding high at 4-0 and a probable top ten ranking is the kind of Georgia team that’s gone up against the Vols in other seasons with high expectations only to spit the bit. If this really is a different kind of year, that won’t happen. That can’t happen.

We’ll know what kind of team we’ve got and we’ll know what kind of program Kirby is building after the Tennessee game. Right now I’ll split the baby to say we’re looking at a nine-win regular season and a divisional battle that won’t be settled until the Auburn game. But I reserve the right to change my mind after Knoxville. And, man, do I want to.

77 responses to “Head vs. heart: a season preview”

Excellent post – my head thinks this team could be 12-0 in December. My heart knows better from being stomped on too many times over the last 4 years in particular … 10-2 with the possibility of 9-3. Anything less than that (unless it’s due to a 2013 rash of injuries) begins to prove we’re heading somewhere between Egypt and the Promised Land.

My thoughts, too, ee. I’m saying it this way. 2017 will either be a lot of fun or a lot of frustration. I’d take incremental improvement and look to next year as “the year” but I don’t think that’s how it plays out. Captain Obvious here says we’re either really good or bad (to me, last year was bad).

I would take 9-3 if we fight like mad in the 3 we lose to demonstrate that Kirby is turning the battleship in the direction we want to go. Any egg laying losses where it looks like the team (staff and players) just rolled out of bed and headed to the stadium will make me think this program is in deep trouble.

Yea, and anyone marking Mississippi State down as a win better do so in pencil. They are very talented and experienced at Quarterback, have a coach who is widely considered the “second best” coach in the conference and always play with a scrappy underdog mentality and chip on their shoulder. They are going to be coming in to Athens ready and expecting to whip our ass.

My feelings as well, agree with both you and the Senator about 10-2 or 9-3 for this year. And there is more upside than downside with that prediction. If we do fall to 8 or 7 wins, it will not be a talent fix that is needed. Both Chaney and Tucker have something to prove in 2017 or we should planning on immediate changes to their positions.

I thought Chaney deserved to be gone after last season. But after ruminating all summer on his bad OL, poor WR corps, a sub-par Chubb, and a rookie QB, I softened on him a bit. Maybe things were way worse – as far as personnel – than I realized….

Anyway, I think he’s got a lot more to work with this year. Add to that the fact that this is his second year and if our offense doesn’t look like they are clicking this year then something is woefully wrong.

Jared, I do not see much improvement in personnel at this point. The talent on hand is extremely young. I fully expect the offense to struggle early this year as well. As the younger kids gain playing time and experience I see an upward trend over the course of the 2nd half of the year. Another season of 7 to 8 wins is about where this team is this year. I expect to seem massive improvement and finally compete for the East in 2018.

If things were far worse last year than this year and the common denominator being the offense line that was very bad last year and now being maned with players that was in school except mayde one or two then one would have to say last year was the result of atrocious coaching . Now we have the same coaches on O an D .so all the lies that we didn’t have players is spot on or was an attempt to have a built in excuse if we lost. Bottom line our problem is and has been the offense line. I don’t see that changing over nite. It could happen later in the year. But all coaches say the harvester group to jell is the offenses line. We Will see.

At the O-line we have less experience in games, but a major talent upgrade and a net increase in experience in the system in the two deep. We’ll see how that shakes out.

There were no ‘lies’ about poor talent on the O-line last year. However they were playing for this and next year. Meaning the line was lower talent, but it could have performed better if the scheme was suited to their abilities. It happens every day with lesser teams. But they played a scheme they wanted to use going forward, even if it wasn’t the best way to win last year. Its a subjective matter as to whether that was a good idea.

The best advice I can give Kirby is to stay the hell out of offensive play calling. You have all of 1 year of experience on that side of the ball. Let the guy do his job. If he can’t do it, find someone who can and leave him alone. The “impose our will” crap cost us big time last year and probably cost us at least 1 maybe 2 wins last year.

Personally I think we’ll learn a lot more in week 2 than in week 1. Only a loss Saturday will have any meaning in my mind. Blowing out appy state or even winning a close one won’t mean a lot to me. It’s an opener. They like this position. We may dominate them and we may look sloppy. Just don’t lose.

If we’re truly a sec championship level team, we’ll maul Notre Dame. If we lose or if it’s a 60 minute struggle, we may be on the way there, but we’re probably an east contender with no real shot at alabama if we can even get there.

Everything comes down to the OL. If they open holes and provide time to throw the sky is the limit. This doesn’t have to be an all time great uga team to win big this year. We only have to be better than the teams on the schedule on the day we play. Game by game, that doesn’t look too daunting.

The greatest risk to me is simply the volume of teams that could get you on “any given Saturday.” Teams that we might not be too concerned about like USC, Mizzou, MSU, UK and GT in other years may be good enough to beat you on an off day.

In most years where we’re thinking we’re a contender it’s a four week schedule: UT, USC, UF and Auburn. This year you add in ND, GT, MSU, Mizzou and UK and you’ve got a legit 9 game schedule. That’s why I’m hesitant to think we’re gonna set the world on fire before I see them play in south bend with my own two eyes. There are simply too many unknowns for our team and too many legit teams on the scheulde to positively speculate until we see what we look like in South Bend. If we look like alabama in 2008 rolling through Athens, watch out world. If we don’t, hang on for a wild ride.

Yep week 2 will tell just where this team is at. Last year after UNC it was the sky is the limit only to be let down later on. UT game will be huge for the confidence not only for the players but the coaches as well. Going into South Bend and beating ND will be the push this team needs when the meat of the schedule rolls around

Agree, thinks ND will tell us a lot. Honestly thinks we stomp a mud hole in Appy State’s azz. Thinks ND will be tight, will go either way…but a loss that early will not hurt us imo. Way too much talent on this team, but it is young talent…what was it, #4 in country for roster blue chippers (4&5 star)?? Can’t remember a time that we have had this much talent (on paper), and it is at all positions. The closer we get, the better I feel…..unless there is just epic failure on the staffs part. This should be at least a 11 win team….

I’m Charlie Brown again. Despite reminding myself of the last ten years, all the positives that everyone has noted are in place. But we need a convincing win Saturday to prove it. I’m hoping to be back at the tailgate mid fourth quarter. And unlike last year I’m hoping it not because I’m disgusted. “Dogs on top. We were out of it and gone”.

We’re going to win 11 plus games due to the second year bounce and do some inexplicable, so Georgia, self inflicted face plant that costs us a trip to Atlanta and/ or playoff, most likely against Florida. During the subsequent off-season everyone will be convinced we’re on the rise and you’ll hear a lot of “We totally coulda woulda shoulda beaten Bama/ Florida if, fill in the blank ” enter 2018 as a pre-season top 5 and flop horribly. 5 years later it turns out Kirby was a huge bust, working as defensive coordinator for will muschamp and it’s obvious we should have hired Mike bobo when we had the chance because he’s winning championships and kicking our ass on a regular basis as head coach of one of our rivals

I know how disappointed those recent Jacksonville trips have been, but if I make that dreary ride back with alias to that dilapated bunch of Jorts it will be my last. JustcN not see losing to them this yer.

“Normally it’s my heart that’s more optimistic than my head, but not this year.” I couldn’t agree more. Let’s not forget that we looked very good in the opener last year against North Carolina and then went on to have a disappointing year. I’m going to agree with you again by seconding the thought that I will reserve judgment until after Knoxville.

We did look pretty good against UNC, but I watched the game again this summer and we got several key calls in our favor that really screwed UNC. It was almost as if Penn Wagers was calling the game in reverse. I won’t say the refs gave us the game, but they certainly helped.

I seem to recall UNC missing on most, if not all, of their deep throws in that game. The receivers were definitely getting open, their QB just couldn’t connect with them. We definitely caught a few breaks in that game, but sometimes those things just go your way.

I simply believe that many of us have reached the last next year. The ingredients suggest that we should have a very good season but we won’t believe it until we see it. The way we analyze games and seasons, four losses would be more of the same frustration.

I would guess Kirby’s preference is going to be whoopin’ App with base offense and defense – better talent, better execution, don’t give Notre Dame too much on film. That is a recipe for a game that feels closer than it should, and I am guessing that sort of game would create a lot of anxiety in the fan base heading into Notre Dame.

I think Kirby’s main goal this year is an SEC East title and trip to ATL. That strategic goal might create some tactical second-guessing in these OOC tilts.

“But it does have to show noticeable improvement in certain key areas to convince me that the coaches and players have at least located the corner and figured out how navigate it.”

I know, being the first game, ALL of the offensive plays will not be implemented, but I would like to see a variety of plays. I good mix of run/pass. I would like to see some inside and outside runs. It would be nice if a good variety of receivers used including the TEs and RBs with a good mix of check-downs and screens, passes over the middle and fly patterns and each arranged at opportunistic times. Play action when the defense SHOULD expect run. Draw plays when the D SHOULD expect pass etc. No play action on 3rd and 20. You know something interesting to watch other than Chubb between the tackles 100 times in a row.

I want to see a HUNGRY D!!! Relentless and smothering with some QB pressure…about 37.2% of the plays in Appy St’s back field.

It just seems like such a leap to go from a team that was 93rd on offense in s&p+ rankings is going to make top 10 and the same with a 35th ranked defense. Both sides of the ball have to make pretty big jumps to even be borderline playoff.

The fan in me looks at the schedule and is pretty sure we are way better than every team and only old lady luck could steal a great season away from this team.

Danny Sheridan was on Finebaum the other day saying probably 8 or 9 wins, but that we could even end up with only 7. Basically said he thinks Smart is a good coach but that we still suck. Not high on UGA at all.

Is winning by a landslide in convincing fashion a good thing or a bad thing for Georgia as they head into ND week?
We’ve had 5 years of roller coaster city with Georgia so maybe winning big and backing it up with a win at ND will start to show signs of that corner the Sen referenced.
GATA

Absolutely a good thing. Never has a smaller game had greater consequences for Georgia. We need to beat the brakes off of App State to start to put an end to the “playing down to bad teams” thing (even though App State isn’t exactly bad… we should be much better). It would also show recruits this is not the same boring ass team of the last couple of years, and put a much bigger spotlight on the Notre Dame game which would also be huge for recruiting.

As much as I would like to see us unload on App St. I don’t see it. Smart is trained in the Alabama way of boring wins over lesser teams. And since we are nowhere near the talent level of Alabama, I expect the game to stay close longer.

On a tangential note, I am not a fan of the “don’t show the playbook” philosophy of early games. For 95+% of the playbook, who cares? It’s likely already on tape from last year. Whatever gains there may be in the element of surprise, I see an equal loss/risk in never having executed the plays in live action. I would much prefer to open up the bulk of the playbook from the word go, and if anything use it to run a wider number of plays out of different sequences to keep tendencies confused…

Watching all these preseason predictions sweep past the middle of our schedule from ND to FL to AUB seems too convenient for the Dawgs I know. Miss St., SCAR, TN, and Mizzou are all games we should win but find a way to let slip through our fingers by the time the clock hits zero. Winning the games we should win without too much drama is something i’d like to see this season.

Sold on KS as a recruiter, not sold as head coach yet. Will say this, everything on offense should be better. OL- can it be worse, TE- great talent that’s maturing, QB- ditto, WR- ditto, RBs- healthier
Defense has everyone back and another year to learn a new defense.
I like our chances if this staff can coach.

We’ll know how it’s going to go pretty quick. If we come out in 13 personnel and blow App St off the ball, we will kill them. If we come out in 13 personnel and they hit 27 in the backfield well hello Nicholls and the year is going to get a lot longer. We are now bigger on the Oline but App St is quick in their front 7, It’s not going to be as easy as some here think.

I just want to see good, consistent football. I want to blow out the teams we should blow out and be competitive with our peers. If we lose a close game to an SEC team, but we look good doing it and it’s not the result of a brainfart, then, over the season, that would give me confidence in Cubby Smaht.

Me too, but I found an old one and made my picks. Senator, how about adding it somewhere on the right side of the page with the others? I would use that more often than the others (which are great by the way. If cfbdatawarehouse is still there, it has gone under, sadly.)

We sought a major upgrade. It’s time to show that improvement. Beat Appy by 20+. Demonstrate a tenacious D vs. ND…a loss should be close and chalked-up to the luck of the Irish. Beat TN by any means possible. And at all costs, beat Florida and Tech. Do that with at least a 9-3 record with no face plants and we’re probably seeing all the pieces fall into place. Miss on any of these and we’ll know KS needs a full 4 year cycle just to get us back to where Richt once had us.

Sound writing to be sure and left himerism off the plate. Yes, I agree; beat the Vols ass like rented mules, but I also think a relentless beating of Florida and or Auburn would elevate the prognostications some. Early indeed, but a sound whipping on Tennessee in Neyland would exorcise quite a few demons.

App State has almost their entire team back and they now have the same number of scholarships as us…not as talented but the same #. Their experience is going to be at least enough to over come the point spread. If Kirby even thinks about limiting the playbook because he does not want to show ND too much he is a fool.
We’ll know all we need to know about this season by 0:00 of Saturday night’s game. A big win and I’m on board….. without it it’ll be a long season.

Not to get too dramatic, here, but I’m not sure that UGA football has ever been at a more definitive crossroads than this season.
If this team exceeds expectations, it will break the mold of a team of elite talent falling flat on its face against the Vandys and Teks of the world. It will mean winning at least 1 of the 3 at Tenn, at Florida (yes that’s an away game) and at Auburn. It will mean a road victory in South Bend. It will relieve the immense pressure on the folks in administration, justifying briefly the firing and hiring which took place 20 months ago. It will validate “the process” and justify the loosening of the purse strings for the JPIPF and the recruiting mecca taking place under the bridge. It will downgrade the surly, woe is me, “Georgia is gonna Georgia” fan, we have all come to know. It will mean the likelihood of another top 3 recruiting class including the #1 RB and possibly the #1 overall player in the country. It will create a positive momentum that may indeed vault us into conversations we have all longed for many years.
If this team fails to meet expectations, it will mean another hiccup against an inferior opponent, losses AT Florida (yes that’s an away game) at Rocky Top, at Touchdown Jesus and Toomers Corner will be full of toilet paper. It will break out the boo birds, watching a lethargic offense not produce, a defense which is not lined up, and special teams you would see at the Pop Warner level. Coaches will openly argue on the sidelines, the silence to the media will dissolve, and the administration will tunnel themselves out of town. The money will dry up, and “the process” will just be something only The Emperor can master, leaving the recruiting class rivaling that of 2013, and the “i told you so” portion of the fan base comes out in droves.
But here’s the odd part of it all…no one really knows! It’s truly an illusion to us all! Either one could happen! That’s what makes it such a compelling story! We really could shit the bed, or take home serious hardware. It’s a crossroads of epic proportions! I honestly don’t see the 8-4/ 9-3 scenario playing out. We are either going to make the jump in 2017, or go backwards.
I’m glad we only have to wait 48 hours from now to see how this is gonna unfold. Either way, I will click on GTP and opine, just like I did today. Senator, congrats on 20,000 posts. This is a must read for me every day. I hope you have taken some of your legal training and prepared a succession plan…when the time comes, of course.
Chico done. See yall Saturday!

Quote Of The Day

“But outside of that, the biggest advantage you can have is have good leadership, have a veteran football team, and when you’ve got that, it doesn’t matter whether you have spring practice or not. When you don’t have that, it’s tougher, when you don’t have leadership and you don’t have the experience at certain positions.”— Kirby Smart, Dawgs247, 3/31/20