Sunday, February 24, 2008

Tories keep Tory...

Given there was open organizing on both sides, I think 2/3 seems like a big enough show of support to keep him on. I guess the real question now is if everyone gets on board for the next four years or not.

However, McGuinty got 81% approval in his leadership review, while Harris got over 90%. It isn't just a matter of whether they lost, but how they lost.

John Tory, much more than McGuinty, and waaay more than Harris was supposed to reduce McGuinty to a minority in a worst case scenario. As much as I like a fellow moderate Tory, the course of the campaign did not reflect well on Tory. By contrast, Mike Harris did surprisingly well in 1990, beating out expectations by holding onto the Tory regional core. McGuinty in 1999, actually won one of the strongest vote totals for Ontario Liberals ever - increasing their share of the vote by about 9% (apart from Peterson, you have to go back to Mitch Hepburn in 1937 for better results than McGuinty's losing 1999 finish).

"As much as I like a fellow moderate Tory, the course of the campaign did not reflect well on Tory."

Which is the real worry Ontario PCs should have about Tory isn't it? He's a nice guy and the party probably had the right idea in picking a moderate to lead it last election. But you have to wonder if he's the man to lead the party if he can get so thoroughly trounced on the campaign trail over his own policy proposal and got caught off-guard by rather obvious questions over the policy (such as the teaching of evolution).

Josh P, to continue your trend, we would predict that if Ernie Eves had only stayed on as Tory leader following his defeat in 2003, he would be Premier again now. I find this rather difficult to believe.