China to overtake U.S. as world’s top oil importer by 2017

By Claudia Assis

China will surpass the U.S. as the world’s top oil importer in four years, with oil imports costing the Chinese half a trillion dollars by 2020, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said.

China’s demand for crude imports is seen rising to 9.2 million barrels a day by 2020, from 2.5 million barrels a day in 2005, the consultancy said Tuesday.

U.S. imports will have fallen to 6.8 million barrels a day from a peak of 10 million barrels in the same period — a 360% increase in Chinese crude imports and a 32% decline for U.S. crude imports. China is also seen as relying more on producers within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The U.S. will spend about $160 billion on oil imports in 2020, buying more crude from Canada (60%) than from OPEC (33%), Wood Mackenzie said.

“By 2020, 70% of China’s oil demand will come from imports,” William Durbin, Wood Mackenzie’s Beijing-based president of global markets, said in a press release.

Tight-oil production — from shale and other unconventional sources — will reduce the U.S. import requirements, he added.

Moreover, OPEC suppliers, “traditionally focused on the US for crude sales,” will be “compelled to shift their focus towards China,” Durbin said.

Wood Mackenzie pinned China’s rising import needs on gasoline and diesel demand due to the increasing number of private cars and commercial trucks as China’s economy grows. By 2020, China will be second only to the U.S. in the number of personal vehicles in use, with 160 million cars hitting the roads at the end of the decade.

About Energy Ticker

Energy Ticker is MarketWatch’s blog about the energy industry and investing in energy companies. It’s meant to serve as a guide for investors looking for the newest, most important and market moving news and information on the industry. Hosted by lead writer and veteran reporter Claudia Assis, Energy Ticker hopes to be the essential guide for those interested in the global business of powering our planet.