The Avs’ coming cap problem

Made mention of this before, but it’s worth a little closer focus: the Avs could have some serious cap problems next season.
As it stands right now, the Avs are financially committed to paying $43.775 million next season to just 13 players. That’s the cap hit average on the 13’s existing contracts.
Here’s the list, with their 2009-10 salaries:
Ryan Smyth – $6.5 million
Milan Hejduk – $4 million
Wojtek Wolski – $3.1 million
Darcy Tucker – $2.3 million
Marek Svatos – -$2.35 million
Paul Stastny – $6.6 million
T.J. Hensick – $850,000
Chris Stewart – $850,000
Scott Hannan – $4.5 million
John Liles – $4.125 million
Brett Clark – $3.5 million
Ruslan Salei $3.275 million
Adam Foote – $3.25 million

This means one thing: the Avs probably aren’t going to be able to be too active on the free-agent market this summer. That’s because the NHL’s salary cap probably will go down slightly for next year, from its current $56.7 million. We don’t know what it will be yet – and it’s possible it might not change at all or even increase slightly. But it’ll probably go down a bit.
Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, it stays the same; that would mean the Avs would still have to sign up to 10 more players to fill out their roster, with only about $13 million to play with.
And, don’t forget, this does not include Joe Sakic, this current list. And, it also does not include any goalie at the moment.
If Our Joe wants to play another year in Denver, it’s pretty clear that he would have to take a major haircut financially. But would Cap take that big a hit so the Avs could be under the cap? He hasn’t made less than $5 million a year since 1996, so he certainly doesn’t need the money. But there’s also a pride factor for any athlete, and Sakic hasn’t cheated himself at the bargaining table, ever (lest we forget, he did sign an offer sheet with the New York Rangers once).

The question becomes: would the Avs even want Sakic back next year? Even if Sakic wanted, say, $3 million to play for next year – a 50-percent pay cut from what he’s making now – the fact is the Avs might not be able to afford that, and still sign the other players needed to fill out a roster.

Just trade some of the high-priced guys to clear room, you say? Good luck with that. With some teams offering fire sale season-ticket prices for next season already (click here to read more)[1], nobody wants to take on risky contracts – and anything over $2 million these days is increasingly being seen by GMs as “risky.”

The Avs could be stuck with all those contracts for next year, with nothing they can do about it. That means the other 10 guys – guys like Sakic, Lappy, McLeod, McCormick, Jones – are going to have to play for no more than $1 million. Guys like McLeod, McCormick and Jones would have no problem with that for next year, but would Sakic and Lappy? And what about a goalie? The Avs went cheap on goalies this year, and we’ve seen how that panned out. Not that I’m saying a goalie automatically needs to make big bucks to have a great year (if that were the case, Scott Clemmensen, Tim Thomas, Craig Anderson, Pekka Rinne, Jonas Hiller and Steve Mason – all in the top 10 currently in NHL saves percentage – would be disqualified from having good years), but I am saying the Avs tried the low-cost approach this year and it didn’t work so well.

Unless some significant cap room is cleared, it’ll be very difficult for the Avs to take on any proven goalie for next year. Let’s hope Tyler Weiman or Jason (I give up trying to spell his last name) have good breakout years in 2010-11.