Weekend Wagering Winners

Here is a summary of two boxing wagers this coming weekend that I expect to produce favorable results. Things have been rather quiet in terms of value left on the boxing betting board recently, but things pick up this weekend and here is the best of the best as I see them.

Friday, February 10th on ESPN from Foxwoods Resort, Connecticut

Paul “Magic Man” Malignaggi versus Donald Camarena

We have had the good fortune of “seeing” Malignaggi fight on several occasions as the 25-year-old slickster has built up a solid 20-0 record against very good opposition. Unfortunately we also have “heard” the Brooklyn, New York native and the verbal rambling he spews and frankly it is often far too much to take. Confidence is a required ingredient for a young fighter; arrogance to the point of cockiness isn’t something everyone can stomach. Regardless, the stylish boxer will get his first minor title shot on Friday as he takes on once-beaten Donald Camarena for the WBC Continental Americas Light Welterweight title. “Magic Man” is ultra fast but without much power as he brings just 5 KOs from his 20 victories. Camarena is largely untested with the only notable bout being a 12-round victory over veteran James Crayton. While the victory over Crayton in and of itself isn’t much to brag about, the fact that Camarena (16-1-0 with 9 KOs) has gone 12-rounds is an edge he holds, having gone deeper than his opponent. Malignaggi has beaten better opposition than Denver’s Camarena and I expect him to box his way to a unanimous decision win using speed and movement. By all accounts Camarena has never been dropped and the light-hitting “Magic Man” is unlikely to turn the trick. It also may be wise for both fighters to pace themselves for the distance. It is also worth noting that while Camarena does have 9 KO victories, he has gone the distance anytime that he has been in the ring against anyone with a decent record. This one will also go to the scorecards.

I’m not sure why but the line has gone up on this fight as local Providence favorite Peter Manfredo Jr. opened somewhere in the neighborhood of a -110 favorite and has been bet up all the way to -140 at some sportsbooks. That means a bet on Scott “The Sandman” Pemberton will now return +120 for his backers should the former title challenger emerge victorious. The fuss about Manfredo Jr. of course stems for the popularity of “The Contender,” but lost in all that glitz and glitter is the fact “The Pride of Providence” lost twice on the show and then dropped his third bout in a rematch with previously unknown, and since unheard of, “The Latin Snake” Sergio Mora. Fortunately that means we haven’t had to stomach listening to Mora being introduced with that awful nickname (what exactly is a “Latin snake” anyway?), but unfortunately for him it is Manfredo, 24-3 with 10 KO victories, who continues to garner attention. Some suggested that Manfredo was a top-rated junior middleweight prior to the reality TV show but that really was never the case. His biggest victory to date might be when he took a lopsided decision over tough-and-rugged Anthony Bonsante (who later ended up joining Manfredo on “The Contender”). So the reality is that Manfredo Jr. has never really been tested and now is being made the betting favorite against the tough veteran Scott Pemberton.

While Manfredo Jr. struggles to crack eggs, Pemberton busts bricks with his fists and has stopped his opponent in 24 of his 29 career wins. The 39-year-old usually struggles against big bangers, as evidenced by the fact that his four career losses have all come by KO/TKO. Peter Manfredo Jr. certainly does not fit the description of a banger and will also be coming up in weight. He is a middleweight without much power and will give up three inches in height to a guy, Pemberton, who could potentially pick him apart from the outside and is also a natural 168-pound fighter. In the past Manfredo Jr. typically fought below 160-pounds, once weighed 162, and now will fight Pemberton at 168. Scotty will certainly be bigger than the super middleweight limit on fight night. Home ring advantage might be influencing the line somewhat as Manfredo Jr. has the edge with the bout taking place in Rhode Island, but Pemberton is from New Bedford, Massachusetts, which is roughly 25-minutes away, so he should be well represented as well.

Once the bell rings I’m not sure how Manfredo Jr. is going to be able to get inside of the lanky Pemberton nor how he will react to being hit as hard as he will on Sunday. I doubt that Peter has ever been hit as hard as Pemberton will tag him and how he reacts to that is unknown. The weight could also be a major factor in this one as Manfredo Jr. looked like he tired in the five-to-eight round “Contender” matches and this fight is scheduled for 10, so he may have to carry more weight around with him and for a longer period than he has in the past.

All of this adds up to a fight that should be an even bout at least, or perhaps Pemberton being a slight favorite based on his edge in power, experience and weight.

As a result my Official Play is Scott Pemberton +120 over Peter Manfredo Jr.