Brexit: A disruptive event of major political, institutional, and economic consequence

The June 23, 2016 referendum in the United Kingdom in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) has upset the political order in Europe, and together with the recent election in the United States will have significant economic and commercial ramifications globally. The UK government has announced it will invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty (which provides a formal procedure for leaving the EU) by the end of March 2017. At that time, the government in London and the EU authorities in Brussels will begin the complex process of establishing a new bilateral relationship before the UK exits the EU, which according to the treaty would normally take place two years later. The UK will also have to negotiate updated arrangements with its trading partners worldwide and for its membership in the World Trade Organization.

Considerable commercial interests are at stake

Any company large or small (whether from inside or outside the EU) that exports to or from the UK, maintains investments there, or is considering such operations, is potentially affected by Brexit. There are a number of possible outcomes of the UK’s negotiations with the EU that could range from continued participation in part or all of the EU single market to a “hard” Brexit involving a re-imposition of trade tariffs, new regulatory barriers, and restrictions on the movement of capital and labor. The outcome of the UK-EU talks will, in turn, determine what kind of trading arrangements the UK will be able establish with key partners including the United States, China, and Japan. The pieces of this negotiating puzzle will be in constant motion, and companies will need to have early, reliable intelligence as well as informed and judicious advice that can benefit their strategic planning and current operations. At the same time, and further complicating the picture, the new Republican Administration and Congress in the U.S. will redraw the country’s international economic policies and priorities including its relations with the UK and the EU. In this unsettled context, your company’s scenario planning can only be as good as the intelligence that informs it.

The imperative of reliable and actionable strategic intelligence and counsel

The firms Transnational Strategy Group LLC (TSG), Competere, and EPPA, S.A. have joined forces to create a Brexit practice group to help your company understand the complex and shifting policy landscape and advise on both long- term strategy and short-term actions. With our strong presence in Washington, D.C., London, and Brussels, our unrivalled expertise on U.S., EU, and UK trade and investment policy, and the ability to tailor our services to serve the needs of companies of all sizes and in multiple markets, we are ready to assist your firm in mitigating risk and creating opportunities as the UK exits from the European Union.

Who we are – Trusted advisors in the major Brexit capitals

Transnational Strategy Group LLC works with a wide range of private sector clients, sovereign governments, individuals and non- profits to provide an array of services to assist them to achieve real results. TSG team engagements have included assisting private sector clients in market selection, entry and defense strategies; international investment; United States and international government relations and advocacy; tariff matters; risk mitigation; securing government finance, insurance and advocacy services. TSG has a deep understanding of U.S. trade policy dynamics in the White House, in the federal agencies, and on Capitol Hill; trusted relationships with many of the key U.S. decision makers; and a track record of transatlantic and trade-policy leadership within the U.S. government, the business community, and leading U.S. and European policy organizations. TSG has particular depth in the agricultural, financial, energy/environment, and pharmaceutical sectors.

Competere has successfully engaged several governments who seek to harness the power of the market economy through a comprehensive pro-competitive regulatory framework, and want to know more about what precise changes would yield the most benefit. Competere is actively engaged with the key stakeholders including governments, industry and media to deliver a positive, productive outcome from the process of leaving the European Union. Competere has developed substantial expertise in international trade, trade policy, competition policy and regulatory issues. Competere’s founder has authored the seminal textbook on trade, competition and regulatory issues, and is the former global market access chair at a leading global law firm where he advised companies and governments on international trade policy, market access and regulatory issues.

EPPA assists companies and sector organizations in understanding the European institutional and national political side of the Brexit negotiations. With a staff representing twelve nationalities, it has a unique overview of all European domestic political systems as well as intimate knowledge of EU institutional processes. EPPA can assist companies in sectors with analysis and understanding of the policies, persons and real bottom-line interests that will dictate the nature of the negotiations from the EU side. EPPA helps firms take steps to position them safely regardless of the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and to implement contingency plans for sectors (or companies) that have asymmetric exposure to Brexit risks – notably the financial sector due to Eurozone- City of London dynamics and companies accessing the internal market through UK legal entities.

How we can help – Insight, strategic advice, positioning

Together, our three firms are on the ground in the three most important political capitals that will determine the contours of the UK’s future relationship with the European Union, and how the new U.S. administration and Congress will fashion policy to deal with the Brexit result. We can provide insight to help your firm understand the domestic political dynamics in London, Brussels, EU member-state capitals, Washington, and locations in global markets where our advisors are present. We can advise you on the direct implications for your sector and your firm of the ongoing Brexit negotiations. And we can help you to position your firm on the trade strategies and negotiations that are most likely to emerge during and after Brexit.