TCU at Oklahoma State

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 2

Records: TCU 4-3 (2-2 Big 12); Oklahoma State 5-3 (2-3 Big 12)

Last Meeting: TCU beat Oklahoma State 31-24 on Nov. 24 in Fort Worth

TV: ESPN

What’s on the line?

TCU is trying to build off a massive 37-27 win over Texas last week. The Horned Frogs had a tough road to bowl eligibility before that game, but now they just need two wins in their last five games to hit six wins. This Saturday against Oklahoma State is a great litmus test for TCU. Did the Frogs really turn a corner against Texas? Or will the Cowboys prove that what happened last Saturday was an outlier, and that TCU belongs in the bottom half of the conference?

Oklahoma State still doesn’t know what type of team it is. The Cowboys have upset two ranked teams in Kansas State and Iowa State, but have also been soundly beaten by Baylor and beaten up on by Texas Tech. Beating TCU would give Oklahoma State its sixth win and test out running back Chuba Hubbard against what might be the best run defense he’s seen yet. The Cowboys have also enjoyed a good home field advantage against TCU, but the Horned Frogs stole a win in Stillwater in 2017. Oklahoma State would love to avenge that loss.

When TCU has the ball:

Against Texas in the second half, the Horned Frogs showed what they can do when everything is clicking. Freshman quarterback Max Duggan was hitting passes downfield and running through defenders. TCU wideouts were finding separation from defenders. The Frogs were up tempo and dangerous. But that’s the first time we’ve seen TCU commit to taking chances all season. It remains to be seen if head coach Gary Patterson and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie decide to turn Duggan loose again.

Oklahoma State offers chances for offenses to succeed in both the run and the pass. The Cowboys are average against the run but in the bottom fifth in the country in pass defense. TCU running backs Darius Anderson and Sewo Olonilua can find lanes against this defense. And if the Frogs do decide to air it out, they’ll find little opposition.

When Oklahoma State has the ball:

Two words: Chuba Hubbard. The sophomore running back has burst on to the scene this season, putting up gaudy numbers in nearly every game. He leads the nation in total rushing yardage, which is a reflection of both his skill and Oklahoma State’s willingness to give him the ball. Stopping Hubbard is priority number one for the TCU defense. Priority number two, meanwhile, is locking down Tylan Wallace, the dynamic junior receiver that was a Biletnikoff Award finalist in 2018. Spencer Sanders relies on Wallace to get open for big gains. Sanders can run the ball, as well -- the freshman has two games with more than 100 rushing yards this season.

TCU played arguably its best defensive half of the season against Texas last week. The Horned Frogs picked off Sam Ehlinger three times in the last two quarters. Sanders has shown that he can be error-prone as well. He’s thrown two or more picks three times this season. If TCU can take advantage of those missteps, they’ll be able to shut down the Oklahoma State offense. But what the Frogs did last week to frustrate Ehlinger -- dropping back eight into coverage, running more zone schemes -- is now all on tape. Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy, a shrewd offensive mind, has no doubt been taking careful notes.

Prediction:

This might look similar to the Texas game for TCU fans. Expect the Horned Frogs to keep things close early with their defense while the offense tries to find its footing after the gate. Chuba Hubbard will break a long run eventually -- he’s too good not to -- but TCU’s defense won’t allow him to pick up chunks of yardage regularly. Max Duggan will have another big second half, and the Horned Frogs will win their second game in a row and their third straight against the Cowboys.