Sunday, August 21, 2016

Next
round’s post will come after the week off, and will mostly just be a
‘copy-and-drop’. Therefore I am going to bring my usual end-of-season summary
forward a week. First, here are the rankings after Round 22.

Second,
here are two illustrations of the course of the rankings over the 2016 season.
The graph shows the progress of each club from week to week. The table shows
each club’s highest, lowest, median, and average ranking in 2016, as well as
the variation in its ranking over the season.

Main
observations:

·Compared to past seasons there was a lot of
movement at the top. Six clubs held the number one ranking at some point in
2016 – Adelaide, Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, Sydney, and West Coast. That aside Adelaide
was the best team of 2016 according to the rankings, as it held that number one
position for clearly the most number of weeks (11), followed by Hawthorn (4),
Sydney (3), West Coast (2), and Geelong and GWS (1).

·The bottom spot was largely held by two clubs –
Essendon and Brisbane. Essendon held the bottom spot for 9 weeks, and Brisbane
for 8 weeks, with Carlton (3) and Gold Coast (2) the other clubs to be ranked
last.

·GWS had the biggest rise over the season,
gaining 38.5 ranking points and rising from twelfth to third. Other big
improvers were Melbourne (+24.3), and – against
expectations – Adelaide (+22.0).

·Richmond had the biggest fall over the season,
losing 36.2 ranking points and falling from third to thirteenth. The other big
drops were by Fremantle (-31.0), Hawthorn (-22.5), and Brisbane (-20.9).

·Port Adelaide and North Melbourne were the most
‘average’ clubs of 2016. Port had a median position of ninth, and stayed
between sixth and tenth. North Melbourne had a median position of eighth, and
stayed between sixth and ninth.

Ladder
aside this is pretty much the status of clubs according to the rankings over the
course of 2016:

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Sydney band Gang of Youths
have released a new EP, ‘Let Me Be Clear’, which is made up of songs that they
say didn’t
quite fit on their album. “All our friends / Are dead and gone,” are the
cheery opening lines of ‘A Sudden Light’. It definitely has an ‘80s stadium
rock feel to it with its shouted lead vocals, its harmonies and synths, perhaps
something like Springsteen in style and either Bon Jovi or Bono in voice.

Actually a bit more research
revealed to me that the
track is in fact three years old, which sort of blows my chances of a having
a contemporary list of listening this month right off the bat. Fortunately though,
I already planned to depart from being up to date with three out of my next
four choices.

This is a new track, except
for that it sounds a bit like Joy Division. But Creative Adult’s new album has
quite a range of styles so that’s OK.

Creative Adult are actually
playing near me in a couple of weeks in a small club in Collingwood. I
wonder what sort of crowd they will get … ? Is it only people in their thirties
like me that listen to this type of music now, because it reminds them of music
from their past? Are we on to the last generation of twenty-something indie music
lovers? But then again even I’m too young to remember when the bands that
Creative Adult remind me of – Joy Division and New Order, the Smiths, the Cure –
first appeared.

For $15 I’m almost tempted to
find out. Anyway, if you live in Melbourne and don’t have a kid you have to
negotiate over caring for the night that sounds like a bargain price (by
Australian standards) for a band that I reckon would sound pretty good in a
small, dark venue.

I didn’t quite intend to start
listening to Brazilian Tropicalia music before the Rio Olympic Games but it’s
ended up fitting in well with the tone of the month. Caetono Veloso and Gilberto
Gil are both worth a listen and from what I understand probably represent what
this type of music is generally like.

But the stand-out for me is Os
Mutantes. They’re as much psychedelia as Tropicalia, and I think they’re even
one of the better psychedelic bands I’ve heard. Their Portugese lyrics and bossa
nova harmonies make them clearly different from the more typical 1960s West
Coast sound. That is they seem to inhabit a world that is theirs and no-one
else’s (I’m not sure if this is completely true), which is pretty much what all
disciples of the psychedelic aim for.

Judging from the count of
plays on Spotify most people, like me, start with this track and then move on
to some others. I recommend doing that as well. Unless you’ve already been
listening to them for the last ten years, and are currently laughing at my
naivety about music outside of the Anglo-Saxon heritage.

Last week I bought a book
called ‘The Rest is Noise: Listening To The Twentieth Century’, by ‘The New
Yorker’ music critic Alex Ross, which I had seen recommended in a couple of
places when it came out in 2007. Though it sounded worthwhile I had been
reluctant to read it for several years as I saw that it was not about the types
of music that I listen to – i.e. rock and pop. Indeed rock ‘n’ roll has become
so dominant in popular culture that Ross’ book feels at times like an alternative
history of twentieth century music, with only passing mentions made of the more
significant rock musicians, even though composers like Strauss, Stravinsky,
Gershwin, Cage, and Stockhausen are more what music has traditionally been established
to be.

I actually started my reading
with one of the later chapters, titled ‘Beethoven Was Wrong: Bop, Rock, and the
Minimalists’, which seemed like a good entry point for me into the book. That
chapter covers Phillip Glass – who I have a cheap CD of somewhere – as well as
Steve Reich, Morton Feldman, and Terry Riley. Ross is sparing enough in his
praise for works, but so keen and eloquent when he gives it that it led me to
want to listen to the music he was describing as soon as I put down the pages. Although
not quite – it was 11.30pm, and I figured the works were probably more than a
few minutes long so that didn’t happen straightaway, but it did have me
searching around in areas of Spotify that I weren’t even quite sure were there.

On ‘Rothko Chapel’: “Feldman
made his mourning palpable … There are voices but no words. Chords and melodic
fragments float along like shrouded forms, surrounded by thick silence. [T]he
emotional sphere of ‘Rothko’s Chapel’ is too large to be considered a memorial
for any individual … It might be the chant of millions in a single voice.”

On the wonderful ‘In C’: “No
matter what choices are made in performance, the harmony tends to move into E
minor in the middle and into G major (the dominant of C) toward the end … Tying
the whole thing together is a pair of high Cs on the piano, pulsing without
variation from beginning to end.” And a good choice of quote from music critic
Alfred Frankenstein: “Climaxes of great sonority and high complexity appear and
are dissolved in the endlessness. At times you feel you have never done
anything all your life long but listen to this music and as if that is all
there is or ever will be."

I’ll
never understand music as well as that. Nevertheless I’ll probably be back next
month, perhaps with some more second-hand recommendations from Ross’ opus.

Sunday, August 14, 2016

“They’ve
kicked themselves out of it …” It’s the kind of phrase that I often heard my
Mum say whenever our team (Richmond) kicked more behinds than goals,
particularly if the opposition had kicked more goals than behinds. But in more
recent years when this happened I wondered: how much of it was really bad kicking for
goal, and how much was kicking for goal from bad spots?

A
couple of weeks ago I saw this
post by Figuring Footy on ‘Expected Score’, which is what score
you would expect a side to kick given where they took their shots on goal from.
For example a shot from the top of the goal square is almost certain to end in
a goal, and is worth about six expected points, whereas an open-play shot from
40 metres out near the boundary is low percentage, and is worth only about
two-and-a-half expected points.

I
think this concept is pretty cool. Actually it turns out that there was an article
published a month ago in the Herald Sun which showed what, according
to Champion Data, the ladder would look like this year if clubs had kicked
their expected scores rather than their actual ones. Perhaps, in addition to a reversal
of injury luck, Richmond’s big fall this season has in part
been due to worse-than-expected kicking for goal. (Although this week, when the
Tigers had 18 scoring shots to Geelong’s 32 yet were within a goal of winning,
looks like it ran counter to that trend.)

The
Figuring Footy post adds another couple of good points. First, good clubs tend
to convert shots for goal at roughly the same rate as bad teams – what
differentiates them is more the volume and type of chances at goal they create.
Second, why doesn’t football coverage make use of expected score? It seems like
something that could be calculated in real time, and would add an important
insight into the eventual result of the match.

Melbourne
makes the biggest jump up in the rankings this week, and for the first time in
the six-year history of the rankings the Demons are what could be called
‘good’. They have beaten Hawthorn, and Port Adelaide in South Australia, over
the past two weeks, and are now on the cusp of being one of the top eight
ranked sides, even if they are still a longshot to play in the finals.

Elsewhere Adelaide and
Sydney have separated themselves from the pack, and according to these rankings
at least, are now the teams to beat in 2016. But that gap over Hawthorn and
Geelong will soon disappear if they don’t grab home ground advantage over them
for the finals, making this year’s premiership race still a close call.

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Two years ago, after the
Tigers’ poor start to the AFL season, I did a
post on ‘what has happened to Richmond?’ They subsequently recovered and
even made the finals that year, winning their last nine home-and-away matches.

Well, this season their drop
off has been even more remarkable and more sustained. Based on my weekly
AFL rankings as of Round 20 the Tigers are six goals per match worse than
they were at the end of 2015, easily the biggest drop off of any side,
Fremantle included. (The Dockers have dropped off more in terms of wins, but either
way Richmond is clearly a lot worse than last season.)

In that 2014 post I
suggested one should look for simple explanations first before getting into
more wide-ranging, subjective explanations (e.g. they
should replace the board). I compared how each player had performed in 2013
with their performance in 2014 up to that point, based on their SuperCoach
scores from Champion Data. While SuperCoach scores are not the absolute final
word on assessing a player’s performance I think they do help in uncovering some
of the more obvious reasons a club has improved or declined.

In the case of Richmond one
obvious explanation stands out: Brett Deledio, Bachar Houli, and Ivan Maric
were all very productive in 2015, based on their SuperCoach scores, but all of
them have played far less in 2016. 2015 Maric has been essentially replaced by
2016 Shaun Hampson, who may indeed be more productive than 2016 Maric, but does
not look to be close to the player Maric was last season. Deledio and Houli
would also have less productive replacements – whoever they are, they are
clearly not from among Richmond’s better players (think of players like Rioli,
Short, Corey Ellis, or Menadue). In my 2014 post I considered the absences of Deledio
and Maric a main explanation for Richmond’s decline in the first half of 2014.

Kamdyn McIntosh and Troy
Chaplin have also played a lot less than in 2015. If one considers Sam Lloyd as
a kind of replacement for McIntosh that fairly much washes out. With Chaplin
David Astbury could be considered the replacement, and that looks to fairly
much wash out too.

On a smaller scale some other
productive players have missed a couple of matches here and there. Trent Cotchin,
Alex Rance, Anthony Miles, Shaun Grigg, and Nick Vlaustin all played every
match or close to every match last season, but this year they have collectively
missed a few more matches. Of the more productive players who have played every
match Jack Riewoldt has performed about the same, Brandon Ellis has been worse,
but Dustin Martin has been better.

The other striking thing is
that Tyrone Vickery has fallen off a cliff in terms of performance. I don’t
have a ready explanation for that one, as Vickery has not only been markedly
worse compared to last season but also the few seasons before that. Given that
Vickery has only played about two-thirds of matches the past couple of seasons it
is not a huge deal, but it doesn’t help either.

In summary then: Richmond’s
most productive players were on the ground a lot in 2015, and that helped the
Tigers to 15 wins. This season they have not been as lucky. So if the cause is
as simple as that (and I couldn’t say for sure it is) what’s the answer? Basically
to replicate their 2015 performance Richmond either needs to hope that its good
players can stay healthy, or get their other regular players to improve, or
have better replacements waiting in the wings. Injury management aside they
probably can’t do too much about hoping players stay healthy. Hence, once the
Tigers work out how to address those other factors that may well go some way to
addressing their slide.

Sunday, August 7, 2016

I like Batman. I love Telltale
Games – even saying once that they may represent the
next step in graphic storytelling where the gamer gets to influence
the story. So when I first heard that Telltale were doing a Batman series it
was like hearing that someone was opening a pub serving craft beer and four
cheese pizza two minutes down the street. My excitement ramped up a couple of
weeks ago when I saw that the first episode was to be released on August 2
(effectively August 3 in Australia), and I was doing excited movements as I
downloaded the game on the day itself.

But
there were problems. To cut the story of my battles against technology short I
had to update my Basic Input/Output System and version of Windows just to get
the game to launch. Then when I finally played the game it jerked and lagged
all over the place; I heard characters’ dialogue before their mouths even
started moving, and clicking and pressing buttons was far more of a struggle
than it should have been.

Fortunately
Telltale Games require only simple button pressing so I could still get through
the episode without too much trouble, a few inexplicable defeats to Catwoman
notwithstanding. Indeed given how little I ended up pressing buttons at the
right time but the right actions still seemed to take place it makes me wonder
how much the game actually required me to press buttons at all.

Of more consequence was the
effect the lags had on my ability to click on the dialogue options I wanted. Given
that Telltale Games are built around choosing options within short timeframes
that then affect how the game progresses this made playing the game much more
stressful and frustrating than it should have been as well. I don’t know how
much of these performance issues were due to my computer, or due
to the game itself (a
patch for the PC version has now been released). While it may seem strange to
focus so much of a review on how a game ran on my laptop the lags so much
defined my experience of the game that I can’t really think of the game without
them.

But let’s get to the story
itself. The story focuses on the early days of Batman, with Gotham starting to
become infested by crime. Batman is meeting characters like Jim Gordon and
Catwoman for the first time, and the police don’t yet trust him (or trust him less).
Meanwhile Bruce Wayne is throwing his support behind Harvey Dent, the future
Two-Face, to become Gotham’s mayor. But Dent is associating with known mob boss
Carmine Falcone, which soon causes difficulties for not only Wayne himself but
also his family name. Other Bat-characters like the Penguin and journalist
Vicki Vale are also circling around, though their main roles in the story are
yet to be revealed.

Telltale have taken some
liberties with the Batman mythos, and seem to have taken the viewpoint of ‘what
if Batman began in 2016?’ For example Bruce Wayne and Oswald Cobblepot/the Penguin
are now childhood friends, and Wayne and Alfred often communicate using
mobile phones.

It’s
not a bad start. There was more Bruce Wayne than I expected, and possibly too
much of Alfred bemoaning that the sole remaining Wayne is spending his life dressing
up like a bat and sitting in a cave. The meeting between Bruce Wayne and Catwoman’s
alter-ego Selina Kyle was a highlight, with perhaps even more tension and
innuendo than the two characters had in ‘Batman Returns’ or ‘The Dark Knight Rises’.
Another highlight for me, frustrating controls aside, was linking up enemies
and objects as Batman planned in advance how he was going to take out a group
of mobsters. A similar mechanic was used when Batman investigated a crime
scene, although the trial and error that was involved in that sequence to
progress slowed down what was otherwise not a bad use of Batman’s detective
skills.

Where does it rate among
Telltale Games so far? Disappointedly I guess given that it initially seemed like
it would be nerd heaven I think I’d take all of ‘The Walking Dead’, ‘The Wolf
Among Us’ and ‘Tales From The Borderlands’ above it. It was just too much of a
slog with the lags, whereas I breezed through all of those games. Also it is
hard to see how any of the supposedly major decisions in this episode will
greatly affect events down the line (and they seemed less ambiguous – I was
with the clear majority on most of them).

But there is still a long
way to go. It sounds like all
of the episodes are coming out this year, which should help the story to
flow better as previous events remain fresh in the mind. It’s more of a three
cheese pizza and a beer missing a bit of head at this point, but I’m hopeful
that it’ll start to come together with the next instalment.

Reading back over this Herald
Sun article from earlier in the year (which incidentally
may end up being somewhat prescient about Richmond having an 8-14 record), I
came across one of the better internet AFL-related comments I’ve ever seen,
made by a commenter named ‘Brock’:

“I
love football, because it's a great leveller, because it creates a shared
interest among people who would otherwise be strangers, because it's an
incredible game to watch and – in addition to many other reasons – because of
the amazing atmosphere at the MCG during any of the 30+ games I go to each
year.

One
reason I don't love football is because of the 'supporters', both online and at
the ground, that feel a sense of entitlement – to intimidate other people, to
provoke other people, to belittle other people, to insult other people. As
though a game can justify the type of behaviour that these 'supporters' likely
feel is unacceptable in other areas of their lives. As though that
behaviour, by way of its persistence, makes a person some kind of
personality.

Among
other things, it's tiresome, tedious and very rarely original. It lacks
imagination. It almost always represents a really sad insight into the mind of
the person in question. At the ground, you can see the delight on their faces
at having disrupted those around them. In the same way, you can imagine the
people behind the keyboard giggling at their own supposed wit, or smiling
smugly at having slightly refreshed the wording of the same tired
insults.

In
reality – it's provocative only in the way that a really boring movie provokes
a person to get up and leave. Draws a reaction in the same way that a dull
conversation causes a mind to daydream.

Primarily
though, it evokes a sense of pity. Because an aspiration to merely draw a
reaction (any reaction, from anyone) seems such an insignificant and trivial
thing to aspire to.”

Most of us long-time AFL
followers would have been one of those boorish supporters this at some point. I
would say that insults are common in a lot of sports – see the major US sports
and most soccer clubs – though it seems to me that there is a tinge of smugness
in AFL that isn’t as present in other sports.

Still it would be nice to dial
back on the same tired old comments. While there are exceptions if you (me
included) make a comment in relation to one of the following topics you probably
aren’t being anywhere near as funny or original as you think you are.

Western
Bulldogs: lack of supporters, only one premiership back in 1954.

After
reaching the top spot in the rankings for the first time last
week Greater Western Sydney are leapfrogged this week by Adelaide and
Sydney, both of whom won by large margins while the Giants struggled to beat the
Gold Coast Suns. In fact 15 of the 18 clubs shifted position this week, with St.
Kilda and Melbourne having the most significant wins. The Saints in particular
have been big improvers over the past five weeks, and are close to ‘rankings
parity’ (i.e. zero ranking points) for the first time since early-2013.