Smoking Ban - Boon, Bust or What?

As readers will be well aware, MPs voted in February for a complete ban on
smoking in pubs, clubs and restaurants from summer 2007. Two alternative
options were discarded - an exemption for clubs and an exemption for pubs
not serving food. CAMRA's preferred way forward, to allow smoking in
separate rooms without bar counters, was not debated. However, we favour
the complete ban over the now-rejected exemptions because it means a level
playing field for all pubs.

So what will the impact of the ban turn out to be on the licensed trade?
Optimists point to the fact that in all surveys of pub-going habits, those who
rarely go to pubs give smokiness as the biggest reason why they stay away.
Pessimists note that many regular pub-users are also smokers; if they decide
to drink at home instead then the presence of a few more former-irregulars
will in no way compensate that loss of trade.

Wetherspoons have taken the bold step of banning smoking in some of their
pubs and their wet sales certainly took a big hit as a result (though food sales
increased). However, it's currently easy for smokers to find an alternative bolt-hole
so you can't draw conclusions from this experience as to what will be the
effect of a total ban.

CAMRA's national newspaper,
What's Brewing, recently carried a detailed
report from New York, where smoking in public places was banned in March
2003. The consensus seems to be that business did slacken off at first but
that trade soon recovered and is now on the upturn. Smokers have become
used to going outside for a drag, even in the New York winter; the ban has
created a new "smokers' culture" on the streets which smokers actually enjoy.
Many bars have installed outdoor heaters and other facilities, which British
pubs will no doubt do as well.

The health benefits of the ban seem to be unarguable; for instance, levels of
cotine, a by-product of nicotine, among non-smoking bar workers have
reduced in New York by 85%.

Similar experiences have been reported from Ireland where the predicted
mass closure of bars just hasn't happened.

The long-term impact of the ban on trade is then likely to be neutral at
worst and could well be positive - though there is likely to be short-term pain
as hardened smokers adjust to the new regime. One New York bar owner's
advice to his colleagues across the pond is "You gotta roll with the punches
and make the best of it. Hold on to your britches and full steam ahead!"