The UK renews EU trade agreements for post Brexit

One of the many lies of Remain was the claim we would lose all the trade agreements the EU has managed to negotiate. Yesterday the government signed the carry over of the EU Partenership agreements with six African countries. Would all those who wrote in to this site and said this would not happen now like to apologise.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Both comments and trackbacks are currently closed.

On the face of it this looks encouraging. However, the claim was that these agreements do not roll over automatically and each will have to be negotiated. Consequently, no apology should be called for as signing these agreements actually demonstrates that we lose the existing access to EU agreements with 3rd countries and have to negotiate new deals. As I say it is encouraging that these appear to have been signed but there are many more that haven’t and will be far more complex to agree than these.

Of course it makes no sense to be turning our back on the most developed free trade block in the world. We have always been free to trade with the rest of the world – membership of the EU has been a help not a hindrance to this.

Reply No, they novate, as often explained here. Tell me one country that will not do just that?

Well, if Therolly got their way then even when we were nominally out of the EU we would still only be able to improve our trade deals as the EU allowed, at least with respect to anything arguably connected with goods:

“The Customs Union is a foundation of the European Union and an essential element in the functioning of the single market. The single market can only function properly when there is a common application of common rules at its external borders. To achieve that, the 28 national customs administrations of the EU act as though they were one.

These common rules go beyond the Customs Union as such – with its common tariff – and extend to all aspects of trade policy, such as preferential trade, health and environmental controls, the common agricultural and fisheries policies, the protection of our economic interests by non-tariff instruments and external relations policy measures.”

Thank you. I would not be surprised if such improvements are embargoed in the Withdrawel agreement, the EU being petrified for both political and economic reasons of a nimble, competitive, low tax economy on its doorstep, hence all its attempts to hobble us and, unfortunately, our Prime Minister, seemingly agreeing.

Meanwhile “Tories fear infiltration by Ukip members” says The Times today. Well the more proper Tories join the party the better. Real, low tax, small government, democratic, pro Brexit Conservatives need to take back control from the daft LibDim currently in control.

They need to do it quickly or we will have to suffer the even more dire Corbyn/Mc Donnall/SNP lunacy.

Indeed, I joined in February, a natural conservative I wanted to have a say in the new leader and stop a wet getting the top job again. I’m far more conservative in outlook than Soubry, Grieve, Clarke, the awful two faced Wollaston or Morgan. Whilst it is proper that the party vets new members it is concerning that it will choose who can join, clearly Brexiteers need not apply even though they want exactly what was Tory policy at the last GE.

Margaret Howard, Indeed the intention was that Turkey accedes to the EU, as shown by its 1987 application and previously in the 1963 Ankara Agreement. Both are already members of a combined Customs Union.

The reason it has stalled is largely due to public antipathy in the EU to free movement of Turkish citizens within the EU, exactly as warned by people like Nigel Farage.

Boris Johnson springs to mind. After using such talk in the referendum campaign he then came out in support afterwards. A quick internet search for “Boris Johnson Turkey EU” reveals his multiple changes of opinion on the matter (for, against, then for again).

EU Referendum: How Boris Johnson Has Changed His Tune On Britain Remaining In The European Union
==

Daily Telegraph column just two weeks ago, in full.

“It is also true that the single market is of considerable value to many UK companies and consumers, and that leaving would cause at least some business uncertainty, while embroiling the Government for several years in a fiddly process of negotiating new arrangements, so diverting energy from the real problems of this country – low skills, low social mobility, low investment etc – that have nothing to do with Europe.”

“Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (fYRoM), Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries.”

“Turkey was declared a candidate country in December 1999. Negotiation talks were opened on 3 October 2005 and Chapter 27 was open for negotiations on 21 December 2009. Technical discussions are on-going in areas such as water, waste, nature protection or horizontal legislation.”

Just as it is undeniable that all of the major UK political parties were, and probably still are, officially in favour of further EU enlargement, and with the Tory leader David Cameron openly expressing an even more insane aspiration for the EU to stretch from the Atlantic to the Urals, see some of the comments here in February 2014:

“The EU visionaries want an EU empire from the Atlantic to the Russian border. I assume even they do not wish to push on to the Urals, well inside Russia’s own territory, though sometimes rhetoric says otherwise …”

And so rhetoric did say, but nobody was expecting that this long term plan would be completed soon.

As you are one of the very people that says voters can change their minds , why can’t a politician? Hypocrisy old boy

Anyway back to the point of this thread, you were one of the ones that said it would take decades to get trade agreements in place and we wouldn’t be able to roll over existing EU agreements. Seems not for the first time you’re wrong.

He said: “In terms of Turkish membership of the EU, I very much support that.
“That’s a longstanding position of British foreign policy which I support. We discussed that again in our talks today”.
In a speech at the Turkish parliament in Ankara in July 2010,
Mr Cameron said: “I’m here to make the case for Turkey’s membership of the EU. And to fight for it.”
He added that he wanted to “pave the road” for Turkey to join the EU, saying the country was “vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital for our diplomacy”.
A European Union without Turkey at its heart was “not stronger but weaker… not more secure but less… not richer but poorer”.

Reply Remember Turkey signed an extensive Association Agreement with the EU including freedom of movement. The UK and other EU contributors then had to pay money to build fortified walls along Turkey’s southern border.

Libertarian, please find just one instance where I have made any reference to rolling over existing EU trade deals (or not). I think you’ll find I’ve never made any such comment.

As for Boris Johnson, he was one of those using Turkey’s potential membership as a campaign tactic for leave which then being openly supportive of them joining as a leave-supporting foreign secretary. If Turkey joining the EU was such a bad thing, why has he subsequently come out in favour. That’s about principle – either being in the EU is a good thing or a bad thing, you can’t be both in favour and against at the same time, which has been his most recent position. Boris Johnson seems to have one main principle – whatever Boris thinks is good for Boris at that moment.

Turkey joining was something totally denied by remain
Clegg was adamant that it would never happen
Yet we see regular talks going on and moves to ease Turkey into the club.
It is the policy and objective of both the EU and Turkey.
Expansion of the empire is the plan.
Read all about it in the 5 Presidents report.

That was the EU’s declared intention, although the Remain camp mendaciously denied this throughout the referendum campaign: the firm promises to speed up accession talks were renewed in March and May 2016: on 30 June 2016, immediately after the referendum, the EU Commission published its already-prepared plan for speeding up accession and opened the new chapter in negotiations for Turkish membership.

“Would all those who wrote in to this site and said this would not happen now like to apologise.”
Of course they won’t.
If you said that Brexiteers stated that water is wet they would say Junker never drinks wet water.

Wow! So we have agreed with Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Mozambique that we will continue to trade with them on the same basis as we do now. Wow! What a Brexit boost! So Mr Redwood, how about rolling over the FTAs with Canada, South Korea, Japan etc etc, the cooperation agreements with the US, China, India etc – the hundreds and hundreds of deals we lose on Brexit day, which is just 7 months away? Is Mrs may going to be scurrying round rescuing them too? Have you seen Dr Fox at all lately?

Reply Still seeking bad news where there is none! I know of no country which has a trade agreement with the EU that does not want to roll it over to the UK when we leave

FTAs cannot be signed or even negotiated until the UK has left the EU as has always been clear. Various parties who post here – is Helena reading this? – have repeatedly asserted that existing EU agreements would not be novated to the UK. This is now shown conclusively to be wrong, so those who have made such assertions should acknowledge it.

How many countries which have a trade agreement with the EU DO want to roll it over to the UK when we leave? All the big ones are staying very quiet. They intend to take the UK to the cleaners once the EU doesnt have our back. Chlorinated chicken for tea?

Chlorinated chicken is from the USA. Under May’s proposed deal if the EU agrees to take it then we have to take it too. Under WTO we don’t. Anyway, I’m happy to take it as it reduces the risk of salmonella poisoning, the arguments against it are only to do with lower animal welfare standards in USA that are enabled by its use.

“…improve the industries that they have”.That may or may not be true (and is a little patronising!)but it also assumes that the Chinese and Russians haven’t got to them first.

The Chinese involvement is well known but Russia is also showing renewed interest in Africa(I suspect acting in concert with China)and has recently floated the idea of a pan-African trade conference in Moscow next year.

We’ll need to start up Palm Line again and Elder Dempsters also City Line. .Then conduct a huge training programme for seafarers..Ships navigating the West African creeks takes a special know how..so no time to lose

““The Free Trade Agreements the EU has with third countries can novate to us as well as to the rest of the EU.” This is a lie. The agreements are between the EU and third countries. Once the Uk is not a member of the EU, the agreeemnst do not apply to the UK.”

Reply:

“No, you are telling a lie when you say these agreements do not novate to us as well as to the rest of the EU, subject IN EACH CASE to the consent of the other country to the agreement.”

Denis Cooper:

““The agreements are between the EU and third countries.”

Nope, they are between the EU and each of its member states separately on the one hand, and the various third countries on the other.

““… the EU trade deal with South Korea … of very little overall economic value to South Korea and close to zero overall economic value to the EU and its member states … also has another interesting feature, namely that it was signed on October 6th 2010 but because of Italy delaying ratification it only came into full legal force five years later … However in the meantime there was provisional application of most it from July 1st 2011 … ”

I find that EU loyalists remind me of SNP activists, always citing this or that aspect of law but usually in a dishonest and misleading way.”

Henry Spark, The EU hasn’t even fully implemented its own 2006 Services Directive. The Canada (2017) and S.Korea (2011) trade deals will take about a decade to implement, and the Japan deal has only just been signed and is not even listed by the WTO.

Moreover there are not “hundreds and hundreds” of such EU deals. There are only about 300 RTAs registered at the WTO for the whole planet. There are only 48 RTAs EIAs and CUs listed at the WTO for the EU, and that includes the EU and EEA themselves. The few deals the EU has done are with mostly minor economies like Albania, the Faroes, San Marino, etc.

A little while back you were crowing about the EU’s trade agreements, well they included all those countries that you now disparage . Plus the biggies like Pitcairn Islands, Moldova etc. By the way the Canadian and Japanese agreements have only just been signed. The EU still doesn’t have an agreement with its biggest customer the USA or the second biggest China, or Australia, or … well in facts loads of counties. Oh and it doesn’t have an FTA with the worlds 5th largest economy either. You remainers are truly pathetic

I guess you never brush your teeth then Henry? Our drinking water is chlorinated

Actually Remain was correct. We will lose them UNLESS the other parties involved agree. Six African countries with small economies have agreed. There are plenty more that still need to. Some might. Some might not.

This is just part of 750 or so international agreements that need renegotiating as a part of your Brexit. All at huge expense to taxpayers. It turns out that we pool sovereignty in all sorts of ways for mutual benefit. Indeed, even North Korea – which is clearly your model for retaining as much of its own sovereignty as possible – has signed many dozen international agreements.

Of course your government could be spending time fixing Britain instead it is trying to reinvent the wheel – and you are reinventing it from round to square, with predictable consequences.

Reply Remain simply said we would lose them. I said the other countries would agree to roll them over. So they will.

“So which WTO rules would they be, then, Andy? Let’s see chapter and verse …. oh, hang about, you’ve said this on several previous occasions, and on August 5th, more than three weeks ago now, I actually replied to you … “

And of course Frau Merkel could be spending time fixing the damage she has done to Germany, where she is in coalition with the AfD and far right mobs bear torches and chase anyone who looks foreign down the street.

(Similar in countries such as Poland and Hungary)

When it comes to xenophobia Germany leaves Brexit Britain for dust but from your spewings of visceral hatred for old English people (who used nothing but due democratic process) you’d think we were worse and thus everything else you say is discredited.

“Finally, we recognise that the affirmations set forth in this political understanding are not intended to be legally binding and remain ‘without prejudice’ to the technical discussions currently underway.” (Joint statement on UK, SACU and Mozambique EPA)

None of these 700+ agreements will be “rolled over” until the counter-parties know exactly what the final deal (or no deal) will be, between the UK and the EU27. They are not going to risk upsetting the EU and losing TRQs.

BTW. You probably missed the bit about resuming Visa free travel to the UK for South Africans. They don’t want us to run out of Strawberry pickers when the EU lot go home.

Six small countries, but why do you highlight the fact they are six small African countries ? Why is that relevant to your argument ? Or do you have some sort of bias which makes you view African countries as inferior to, say, European countries ?

And South Africa, despite its very evident and severe government problems, is the biggest economy in the Continent; handled well, the UK could be a massive influence for the good of all here, which would benefit both SA and the UK.

sm..anyone would think we were never in SA before..Mrs May knows from history the full extent of our previous involvement there..and so do the Africans and the Boers..so don’t hold your breath. The British were never a force for good certainly not to the Africans.

When I was in business and before I retired, I would sell my products and services to anyone who wanted them, and who was prepared to pay what I wanted for those goods or services.

If shipping costs are higher for some Countries than others then you simply add on what it costs.
It is not an either/or situation, you simply sell to as many people who want them if you do not want to limit you business, income or profit.

So you support uncontrolled and unlimited mass immigration into our country, either as a benefit in its own right or as a price worth paying for somewhat easier external trade, and at best a marginal enhancement of our GDP but more likely a negative net effect on our prosperity. You are of course in a minority among your fellow citizens on that, and not just the minority who support continued EU membership but the much smaller minority who agree with your anti-democratic views on mass immigration. So I think in fact you should apologise, for your constant, deceitful, promotion of a policy which is opposed by the great majority of your fellow citizens.

The Tax Payers Alliance has just highlighted again the vast discrepancy between public sector pensions and private sector pensions. It is a time bomb, which politicians prefer to kick down the road. It is said 25% of Council Tax bails out that shortfall. Another huge can being kicked is the rail unions, how train/tube drivers think they deserve their inflated incomes in comparison with the much more skillful job of truck driving is beyond me. Long live HS2!

Another way to look at it: do we want a race to the bottom with public sector people getting to the level of private sector pensions, or would it not be preferable if the private sector were not twisting to pay the minimum for its workers’ pensions?
It is always interesting to see that when a private company is in difficulties, its workers’ pensions is almost always the first element to be put aside in discussions for it being taken over by another company. Remember “Sir”Philip Green.

Yes that would be nice Hefner, but in an era of increased life expectancy, low inflation, low yields and governments attacking pension funds for taxes, the private sector and self employed pensions are a the norm.
Reality has hit these pensions with firms having to close final salary schemes, close inflation protected pensions and stop most early retirement generous offers.
Because it isn’t affordable for either the company nor the individual paying in.
But in the public sector we still have an unreformed pension industry.
It is a time bomb which no one in the public sector has the guts to stop.
My local council now spends over a third of its annual income on pensions and it is rising fast.

Workplace pensions were introduced by the government in 2017 so private sector employers now pay National Insurance and workplace pension an in lots of cases their own pension scheme too. How many more pensions do you want us to pay ( baring in mind that its always the customer who ultimately pays )

” What have you done with the trillions people have paid you for their old age? ”

Go to any city and you will see them walking round, anytime of the day, not working, enjoying their life on the UK taxpayer. Every minute of every day of every week of every month – more arrive, hands out. Slavery hasn’t been abolished – just changing colour.

That is why I made my own provision for retirement..i could see it twenty years ago..britain is bunched..too much debt..population is too large for country size..demographics not good..farming and manufacturing on the down..and useless politicians and govetnments

My mantra has always been, “Trade is better than aid”, so the more developing countries we can support with trade the better. We should systematically work through the EU Partnership Agreement countries offering them a better deal than they get from the EU. If the basis of the creation of the EU was that countries who trade together do not indulge in war, then the more trade we can encourage with Africa and the Middle East the better for all concerned.

I once suggested on here that Cameron’s passport be taken away, because every time he visited countries like this he came back with another multi billion pound bill. Seems like the Maybot is doing the same – the politicians beloved virtue signalling at our expense. Funny how the billions can be found just like that down the back of the Downing Street sofa for some things, but not for things needed at home (pot holes, social care, tax cuts the list is endless).

There was a very good article by Xan Smiley in The Spectator,11/8/18:”Britain should spend more on diplomacy in Africa and less on aid”,looking at how our diplomatic clout with the countries of that continent has collapsed,at least partly due to :-

“the latest trend is for DfID officials to be promoted to ambassadors…who are better at dishing out aid than actual diplomacy.”

Will the May regime be making the necessary people changes for it’s putative new strategy of “investing” in Africa in our national interest to actually work?

John Finn, No that was not the “only issue of concern”. Remains on here specifically and repeatedly claimed we would not be able to roll over the trade agreements made by the EU. They were wrong. Just as they were wrong about the economic consequences post the Brexit vote. In fact Remain have not been right about anything so far, which takes some doing.

A Canada-style free trade deal appeared to be acceptable to Donald Tusk and was favoured by the Brexit Department. It is a free trade deal pushed aside by the Chequers Brino agreement which Brussels have said they will not accept.
Mike Stallard keeps popping up suggesting the EFTA route which is the Norway option, rejected before and since the referendum. It demands freedom of movement and Government by FAX.

Why should we want it? How much would it be worth to us, and what would our government be willing to concede to get it? And would that be the best use of the limited time and energy available for negotiations?

“Far more important than trying to get that one-off gain of maybe 0.4% of GDP or less, equivalent to the natural growth of the UK economy over less than two months at the long term trend growth rate of 2.5% a year … would be to make sure that all practical and legal arrangements had been made for a smooth and orderly transition to the default position of the trading on the basis of the WTO treaties … “

Nobody in Remain said it could not be done. They simply pointed out – correctly – that it was an issue. And it is still an issue because there are dozens more trade deals we need to carry over – and not all the other parties are keen. What no Brexiteer seems to have figured out is that you can scream ‘I want, I want, I want’ as much as you like but there is no guarantee you will get. Trade deals are a two way street. They involve give and take – not just take.

“Swedish EU affairs minister Ann Linde says it is regrettable issue has become ‘a matter of ideology’ in UK”

I look in vain for any response from the UK government, such as:

“It will be up to you to protect your Single Market”

“If anybody has made this “a matter of ideology” then it is an Irish government which likes to pretend that at present there is no border and has said that it will not tolerate anything which would imply a border.”

But of course we need not expect to get anything remotely like that from our government which is actually on the EU’s side not ours.

John, an idea you might consider promoting. A biannual or perhaps five yearly exhibition of all that the UK can offer the World in the fields of manufacturing and services. The NEC would be a good place to hold it. I would also suggest that government subsidise small and medium size businesses to take part as they are the future. You might also consider favourable rates for overseas attendees in travel and accommodation. It could be a mighty big sales pitch for UK Ltd, much as the Farnborough Air Show is for aerospace.

It would take them one journey on the M-ways round there (W. Midlands) to conclude “never again”. The M6 is currently virtually impassable. If you really want to put investors off the UK that is where to take them.

agricola
Posted August 29, 2018 at 11:21 am | Permalink
agricola says
”
John, an idea you might consider promoting. A biannual or perhaps five yearly exhibition of all that the UK can offer the World in the fields of manufacturing and services. The NEC would be a good place to hold it. I would also suggest that government subsidise small and medium size businesses to take part as they are the future. You might also consider favourable rates for overseas attendees in travel and accommodation. It could be a mighty big sales pitch for UK Ltd, much as the Farnborough Air Show is for aerospace.”
Seems a good idea.

The Farnborough Air Show is bi-ennial and has just built permanent exhibition halls. Why not alternate years? Motorway links to all parts, live airfield suiting executive jets up to A320 ,within Thames technology valley, premium quality hotels in locality,

Though perhaps we’re not supposed to shout ”Buy British!” at the moment – is there something in the EU rules that forbids that sort of competitive exhibitionism? Still – we’ll soon be free of such constraints!

The BB has adjusted “attacking Scots and English fishermen” to
“A fight BETWEEN French and English fishermen”
Well, it was reported at first and SEEN as ramming us and lobbing “rocks”. The latter word of one of OUR skippers.
Fake News is getting quicker in editing.
Have our Scots fishermen been sunk? Or have the BBC just forgot to mention them within a few minutes of saying they were there?
Not the Flying Scotsman..The Disappearing Scotsman”…Hidden by Scots Mist????

Yeah but when we get back our own fisheries waters like we had before 1973..we’ll be able to fish out to twelve miles from a baseline around our coast..it will be our own fishing area exclusive to us but won’t extend as far as Normandy waters so that should prevent future conflict with the french

Was this piracy?
Did the French police boats just look on?
Are we well within our legal rights to fish these waters?
What will UK authorities do to protect our fisherman?
Does this action reflect Brexit and the fear of French fisherman that they will no longer be able to plunder UK fishing waters post Brexit?
Will this single event lead to further hostility by the French?

These are not major agreements. What about the EU’s apparently successful negotiations with Australia and New Zealand? Are we going to do as well with these countries? It doesn’t sound like it but maybe you could enlighten us.

Reply The issue of novating existing trade agreements was one of will this happen or not, and the answer as I always argued is yes it will. You are right that the EU has failed to do deals with large players like China, USA and India.The propsects for a UK/Aus and NZ deal are very good.

Are you sure? I can remember that both countries were very bitter when we ditched them overnight in our eagerness to join the EU.

Dairy farmers in NZ lost their trade in butter and those in Australia that of their lamb export, Britain being their main outlet at the time. They had to look towards other markets, mainly in the East.

I doubt they will drop those in favour of a return. After all what guarantee could we give them that the same might not happen again in the future?

Reply Try reading what they write and listening to what they say! They want a deal.

The headlines and front pages in previews of newspapers of 30th August 2018 are absolutely not full of the the fishing event. It would seem that yes it is very important indeed in fact, one way or another. Something happened which we would prefer not speak about just now…it is THAT bad!

Teresa May was supposed to be on a trade trip to Africa, yet every country she visited she showered Aid and other goodies on them. I always thought trade trips were supposed to be about selling stuff, not giving away stuff . We are going to have to sell a lot of stuff to others to make up for the £4 billion that May has given away ( was this £4 billion given away voted for in Parliament?) Trump never left the White House, met with Uhuru Kenyatta and agreed to have Bechtel build the new Mombasa to Nairobi highway, May went to Kenya, gave away a load of stuff, and got nothing, may be she didn’t ask for anything. It seem all these African leaders have to do is lay on some dancing and singing children and out comes the British people’s cheque book.

In this May isn’t much different from other Prime Ministers , for Gordon Brown also got a terrible dose fiscal incontinence every time he went abroad. It seems our PMs believe that giving stuff away is great for their image , unfortunately it does little for our nations wealth. As such we would do our nations financial position a lot more good if we confiscated Prime Ministers passports as soon as they got to office, rather than worry about trade deals.

This is of course good news. Nobody is served by disruption of trade.
The more interesting time will be when actual new FTA are negotiated between UK and other countries. In such cases, size will matter. Time will tell whetehr this would be to the advantage or disadvantage of Britain

About John Redwood

John Redwood won a free place at Kent College, Canterbury, He graduated from Magdalen College Oxford, has a DPhil and is a fellow of All Souls College. A businessman by background, he has been a director of NM Rothschild merchant bank and chairman of a quoted industrial PLC.