Friday, February 5, 2010

50 State Approval

There were seven states that Barack Obama won where his approval has slipped below 56%. Three of them are pretty darn predictable- North Carolina, Indiana, and Ohio- all of which saw extremely close races in 2008.

Another three of them though are Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada which Obama won by commanding margins of anywhere from 9-15 points. That's yet another clear piece of evidence of a Mountain West problem for him and Democrats at large, and it's being manifested in Harry Reid and Michael Bennet's status as two of the four most vulnerable incumbent Senators. I really hope we get around to polling New Mexico soon and see what impact all of this is having on the Governor's race there.

I still think the long term demographic trends in that region will make it more Democratic over time- but declarations of 'permanent' blue status after the 2008 election were a little premature.

The seventh state Obama won where he's under 56% is New Hampshire, which may help to explain why Paul Hodes is having so much trouble.

That is not the case at all since there is an excellent Republican candidate in NM-1, Jon Barela, who has the full backing of the national GOP. This district was represented by Heather Wilson who was an excellent Republican legislator. We give Steve Pearce a 59.3% chance of winning and Jon Barela a 52.8% chance. things are tougher in NM-3 but no district is safe after Massachusetts. We give the Republicans (either Adam Kokesh or Tom Mullins) a 13.7% chance. See: http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=308&Itemid=1144 for a list by state.