Dennis Gartman’s Strategy for September: Wait for October

You survived the roller coaster ride in August. Now it’s time for September!

And there are plenty of reasons to be bullish and bearish. Stocks just closed out their worst month in a year, however, into month’s end, the S&P rallied sharply off its lows.

Should you position for a rally? Or is the market going to re-test the lows.

4 out of 5 Fast traders are skeptical. Here’s what they have to say about the month ahead:

Strategic investor Dennis Gartman thinks trading over the next month (or even two) is largely about historical trends. And September (and October) are historically the worst months of the year. If you don’t have to invest, “wait until late October until you buy,” Gartman says. “Just avoid owning stocks until then.”

Trader Guy Adami shares Gartman’s skepticism. He thinks Wednesday had every reason to be a fantastic day in the market but it wasn’t. “We sold-off mid-day then rallied back a little,” but he thinks the fact that the bulls petered out and a lack of volume could be the beginnings of a new sell-off. “It all leads me to believe we're seeing the beginnings of the next leg down,” he says.

Tim Seymour is equally cautious. “Even with an 8% gain from the August lows it was still the worst month in more than a year."

Trader Stephen Weiss thinks bulls are misguided if they’re pegging hopes of a rally on economic data. Although the data may be better than expected, it’s still terrible, he says. “I think we’re going a lot lower.”

Trader Brian Kelly is equally negative. Kelly worries that a lot of hope is baked into the market – and from the upcoming Obama speech to the impending decisions coming from the super-committee in Congress, he says plenty of catalysts could disappoint.

Only Jon Najarian is optimistic. Although he concedes that the market could slip in the near term he thinks as September advances the S&P could extend gains. Just as Kelly thinks events in September could disappoint – Najarian thinks the economy will shows signs of being resilient and, as a result, the data points could surprise to the upside.

How about you? Going into September are you more bullish or bearish? Tell us now

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