SportsLine’s Top Weekend Picks: More MLB Action

Clay Buchholz has been good for the D’backs since they called him up, but he’s been really good on the road, 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA. That contrasts the success by Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who is coming off a gem of a start against the Nationals but overall has a 5.65 home ERA and just two quality starts in his last seven. Arizona batted .262 in July and is at .288 in August, proving the offense has turned it around since a ridiculously poor start. The D’backs road record is better than the Reds’ home record.

My data sees the Twins knocking off the Tigers in 70 percent of simulations for their Friday contest. I’m also projecting an average margin of victory of nearly two full runs per contest. These are lopsided numbers for such a meager favorite, which means we have to jump on Minnesota for the implied value.

SportsLine Expert: Stephen Oh (139-110 in last 249 MLB ML picks)

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Friday, August 10, 2018, 7:10 pm ET

MIAMI +100

I’ve got the Marlins beating the Mets in more than half of simulations for their Friday meeting, giving us strong value on the slight home underdog. Look for improving Miami starter Jose Urena to get the best of New York’s Zach Wheeler in what should be a solid pitching matchup.

Carlos Rodon has shut down the Indians to the tune of a career .203 average on more than 170 at-bats. And he’s been a beast at home, 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in four starts. Indians rookie Shane Bieber is still hit or miss, and while Cleveland is 7-3 when he starts, teams are hitting .302 through 10 starts. If Rodon can slow down that offense, the Sox should pull off the upset here.

Reliever-turned-starter Burch Smith has had six starts so far, one of which went well. He’s made it past five innings just once, his ERA is 8.27 as a starter, and he’s backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. St. Louis’ Austin Gomber has been better in two starts (with 17 relief appearances), and he doesn’t allow homers. The Royals don’t hit for average and are second-to-last in homers. The Cardinals’ offense has been strong since the calendar flipped to August.