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Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Originally Posted by Senzling Hot

Exactly, the draft is no where close to an exact science. When you are projecting 17-21yr olds things always change. The odds of getting a high impact starter even at the top of the draft is highly unlikely. If there is a clear best player, but at this age there are so many factors. Take a prospect who is more polished and may actually help this team as was stated Mike Leake is a perfect example. Get talent that will help at the top of the draft, go for potential toward middle and end. Be creative with the bonus pool money.

I agree with your reasoning, but not your conclusion.

The draft is not an exact science, as you say. What is clear is that analytics will find the player's weaknesses and take full advantage, whether you draft a hitter or a pitcher. The way to counter that is to draft for talent, not for position and not based on "closest to the big leagues." If you lack top talent, the analytics folks will figure out how to stop you.

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Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Originally Posted by Kc61

I agree with your reasoning, but not your conclusion.

The draft is not an exact science, as you say. What is clear is that analytics will find the player's weaknesses and take full advantage, whether you draft a hitter or a pitcher. The way to counter that is to draft for talent, not for position and not based on "closest to the big leagues." If you lack top talent, the analytics folks will figure out how to stop you.

Talent is to hard to determine at a high school players age. You have such disparity in talent at that level. It is extremely difficult to gauge there future potential. Especially with pitchers. It seems everyone throws 95+ these days. College players are much easier too gauge. Go with the best available college player. Pay over slot for talented high schoolers in later rounds. My thinking is it is more likely that a college player will more likely make an impact and quicker than high schoolers.

Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Originally Posted by Kc61

I agree with your reasoning, but not your conclusion.

The draft is not an exact science, as you say. What is clear is that analytics will find the player's weaknesses and take full advantage, whether you draft a hitter or a pitcher. The way to counter that is to draft for talent, not for position and not based on "closest to the big leagues." If you lack top talent, the analytics folks will figure out how to stop you.

I have had similar thoughts concerning the use of analytics in the draft. In the first round there is a general consensus regarding the top of the draft. These players are well scouted by virtually everyone including media analysts. They generally have standout tools. After the top 50 or so, there is less consensus. That is where, it seems to me, that teams should pay more attention to analytics that could lead to better development outcomes. I suspect, though I have no prood, that teams have different favorite things to prioritize, long stride, strong hands, spin rate, bat speed, academics, work ethic, etc.

Re: Reds pick 7th next year

If a guy like Leake is available at pick 7, the Reds need to take him.

When I say " a guy like Leake".. I mean a starting pitcher that has 3 major league ready pitches and the endurance to eat innings, even if he projects to be a middle of the rotation guy like Leake. I mean, Leake was probably the closest thing to a "Sure thing" that the Reds drafted in my lifetime. Not sure a guy like that will be available or not, I am just talking hypothetically.

Talent is so hard to judge. Reds seem to struggle with identifying pitching talent.. Now true, some of their farmhands got hurt. But their overall track record in recent history has to be one of the worst in baseball.

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

All have been big contributors to the big team in one way or another whether through their play or by being used as a trade chip. There are a lot of teams that would KILL for that same string of productive major leaguers

Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Originally Posted by JayBruceFan

All have been big contributors to the big team in one way or another whether through their play or by being used as a trade chip. There are a lot of teams that would KILL for that same string of productive major leaguers

True, but time to right the ship.
They seemed to do ok the last two years with Senzel. And I will say, so far, Greene was a good pick too.

Hopefully that means, they have learned to not take a high school pitcher in the first round, unless he's a potential super star like Greene.. No more Travesios and Robert Stephensons in the first round.. That college reliever who started a little bit at University of Virginia.. I don't know what the heck went wrong there, I will chalk that one up to bad luck.. but still, let's stop drafting relievers in the first round, hoping to make them starters... Now in the supplementary rounds or 2nd round.. sure, that is fine.. but not in the first round unless they project to be another Chapman type impact closer.

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Nick Howard was the guy from Virginia. I'm a firm believer that rebuilding clubs need to take the BPA from the college ranks as it gets them closer to respectability. OTOH if a guy like Greene, Trout, or Harper is there out of high school you take him!!

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Re: Reds pick 7th next year

Originally Posted by schroomytunes

Nick Howard was the guy from Virginia. I'm a firm believer that rebuilding clubs need to take the BPA from the college ranks as it gets them closer to respectability. OTOH if a guy like Greene, Trout, or Harper is there out of high school you take him!!

Two of those guys are not like the other. Trout, for as great as he is, was nowhere near the guy the other two were coming out of high school in terms of perception. Now, hindsight probably tells us how wrong and stupid that all is. But he was a late 1st rounder and didn't "drop" because of something. That's just where people thought he deserved to go.

Re: Reds pick 7th next year

The Reds need to continue the trend of drafting best college hitter available in the draft. Then flip for young pitching, at least until they get a better record of pitching development.
.

Unfortunately, this front office is not very good at trading for GOOD young pitching either.
If they can find a polished college pitcher that is a year or three away and projects to be a middle of the rotation guy, they need to jump at that chance. (I don't know if that guy will exist at pick #7).

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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