This paper addresses two main questions: (1) What are the binding constraints to Guinea's economic growth? and (2) What would it take to accelerate growth in the country?
... See More + Using the growth diagnostic approach, the paper finds three binding constraints to growth: (i) lack of good infrastructure (roads and electricity), (ii) low access to finance, and (iii) poor governance. Simulation results highlight the need for total factor productivity growth for higher gross domestic product growth rates over the medium term. Specifically, Guinea needs 1 to 2 percent total factor productivity growth to maintain 5 to 7 percent gross domestic product growth, with a 16 to 21 percent investment rate by 2020. The lower bound of the range of the investment rate is similar to Guinea's experience in the past decade; the upper bound is slightly superior to the country's recent performance. The paper discusses some of the policy options to consider to address the key binding constraints to economic growth as well as to overcome the challenge of increasing total factor productivity growth in Guinea.
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The Ebola pandemic has been one of the most virulent pandemics in modern times. By the end of 2015, the epidemic had cost the lives of more than 11,300 people in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, including more than 500 frontline health care workers.
... See More + After good growth performance between 2011 and 2013, Guinea’s economy has suffered a number of setbacks, including the Ebola crisis and a sharp drop in new investment in the mining sector. As part of the international effort to understand and manage the Ebola crisis and to obtain microeconomic data, the World Bank partnered with Guinea’s National Institute of Statistics (INS) to conduct a mobile phone survey to measure the socioeconomic impact of Ebola on households, following in the footsteps of similar mobile surveys conducted in Liberia and Sierra Leone in 2015. The study finds that the pandemic had ripple effects on the economic fabric and that the economic effects of Ebola have outlasted the epidemiological ones. In addition to the great loss of life, the epidemic has caused great damage to the countries’ economies. As part of the international response, the World Bank Group has significantly financed the Ebola-affected countries. Guinea was significantly affected by the Ebola pandemic, jeopardizing some of the gains in macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction during the last few years. The survey was conducted in all provinces of Guinea, with 60 percent of the respondents residing in the areas strongly affected by Ebola. Using newly collected data through a mobile phone survey, this study analyzes the socioeconomic impact of Ebola on households in Guinea. The survey shows that all parts of Guinea were economically affected by Ebola, with greater impacts in the southeast and the areas around Conakry. It is interesting to note that a quarter of respondents in the severely affected areas reported experiencing proven cases of Ebola in their neighborhood or village. In relation to agriculture, it is found that Ebola did not negatively affect agricultural production and food price. Another surprising finding is that despite Ebola and risk of contamination, households that needed treatment for malaria and diarrhea still visited a health facility, whereas a significant proportion of households reduced their attendance of health facilities. Income loss for rural households was much more related to difficulties in selling their production, than to lower agricultural production or lower food prices. However, Ebola has had a larger effect on urban employment, as illustrated by the increase in the urban unemployment rate. On the other hand, due to Ebola, children dropped out of school, and households adopted coping strategies by reducing their food consumption and selling key assets.
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First in a series, which aims to analyze the recent economic and financial situation in Côte d'Ivoire, this report analyzes the main macroeconomic developments and structural policies of the country from 2013 until mid-2014.
... See More + It also reflects on the underlying factors of the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire since the end of the post-election crisis, to assess the likelihood of sustained economic growth and significant poverty reduction in the country. Finally, the report analyzes the effects of declining oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the CFA franc on the Ivorian economy. This edition does not examine the impact of strong economic growth on the Ivoirian population's well-being indicators such as, poverty, employment and inequality. Within the scope of this report, the objective is to understand the factors contributing to the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire. This economic update is targeted toward a larger audience, in order to stimulate constructive debate on public policy in the country and between the country and its development partners.
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In this paper the author analyze the link between spatial agglomeration, spatial disparities and political governance with an emphasis on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
... See More + The agglomeration index and the urban-rural consumption ratio are used respectively as a measurement of spatial agglomeration and spatial disparities. The author distinguishes two aspects of political governance: political rights and political stability. Statistically, we find that agglomeration rate is higher in MENA, whereas the indexes of political rights and political stability are lower in MENA compared to the rest of the world and other lower middle income countries. When running the regressions, the data better fit the agglomeration model than the urban-rural consumption ratio model. Using cross-sectional data for 182 countries around the world, the author find that the political rights index is negatively and significantly linked to the agglomeration rate. Our results suggest that an improvement in MENA countries' level of political rights to the average of the rest of the world would be associated with agglomeration rate 4 percentage points lower than its average level in the region. The data also reveal an inverted-U relationship between the agglomeration rate and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and a negative relationship between trade openness and the agglomeration rate.
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