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Obama’s final Ohio push

If Romney loses, who's to blame?

While Obama is ahead in early raw voting numbers in Florida and North Carolina, voting expert Michael McDonald, a professor at George Mason University, says Romney has effectively closed the gap enough that strong Republican turnout on Election Day could cost Obama those states.

“It’s going to be difficult for Obama to pull enough ahead to win North Carolina to offset what Romney may do on Election Day,” says McDonald, director of the United States Elections Project. “They’re seeing the same numbers I am seeing.”

For months, both campaigns have lavished millions of dollars, and dispatched thousands of volunteers to corral potential supporters to vote early — either by mail or in person. The result is that an unparalleled number of Americans will have cast their ballots before Election Day — perhaps as much as 40 percent of the electorate — rendering traditional get-out-the-vote efforts almost archaic.

But whether the intense efforts give the edge to Obama or Romney — wiser after Obama’s 2008 success with early voting — remains to be seen. “We are on track for a record-breaking turnout in early voting, but we don’t know what that means yet,” said McDonald, director of the United States Elections Project. (There is no indication that Hurricane Sandy impacted early voting turnout in the states at issue.)

Compared with 2008, Obama is being challenged in a field he had virtually to himself four years ago. The Pew Research Center reported Thursday that “Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted.”

In its poll, conducted this week, Pew reported that neither Obama nor Romney “has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.”

So crucial is early voting to the campaigns’ strategies, that the candidates themselves are beating the drums publicly. Last week, Obama made a show of voting early in his home state of Illinois. And in an interview this week with April Ryan of American Urban Radio Networks, the president swung back to the topic twice, signaling why early voting is critical for Democrats.

Early voting, Obama said, enables the campaign to help people who might run into a problem at the polls. “We can solve those problems. We have lawyers across the country, and if someone prevents someone from voting, we can try and fix it,” the president said.

“But if you show up hours before the polls close and suddenly you’re not on the list or you don’t have the right ID, it might be hard for us to get you the help you need.”

Romney, too, reminded supporters Monday in Ohio of its importance. “We’re doing well right now, so early voting makes a difference,” he said. “It helps us. It’s, you know, a little extra boost when we need it, so thank you for doing it.”

Readers' Comments (588)

As always, you tried to tilt the story to reflect badly on Obama. From reading the article, I don't see where it's any more tenuous for the President than it is for Romney. It is so tiresome to see Politico diss the President. BTW, people want to know what kind of diversity there is on your staff. Is it ALL WHITE REPUBLICANS?

Well, actually Pew reorted that Romney had a 7 point advantage in early voting according to their polling. Almost exactly what Gallups polling found. They both found that about 20% of votes had already been cast.

As always, you tried to tilt the story to reflect badly on Obama. From reading the article, I don't see where it's any more tenuous for the President than it is for Romney. It is so tiresome to see Politico diss the President. BTW, people want to know what kind of diversity there is on your staff. Is it ALL WHITE REPUBLICANS?

You're kidding right?

What Politico is doing here is "reluctantly" pointing out some of the developing facts...

It is well known that democrats rely on early voting and in part that is what helped elect Obama last time.

Republicans usually have a stronger turnout on election day as that's when the majority of them cast their ballots.

All these news stories indicate that this year the early voting has mostly been evenly split between republicans and democrats.

Voter registration and entuesiasm is way up on the republican side this time around and Romney enjoys a 6% to 8% advantage with independents.

Checked Nate Silver, Cook report, Intrade and Sabato all say Obama will win the electoral vote. Popular vote will be interesting some are projecting that Obama wins electoral vote and loses popular vote. Early voting shows Obama leading in most swing states but Republicans are doing far better then in 2008. Should be a long night on nov 6, but Obama should win.

Early vote edge? Are these people imbeciles? I've seen numerous articles which suggest otherwise! Never doubt that Politico is in the President's pocket, because how idiot reporters purposely word their articles would lead people to believe differently. We're just NOT THAT STUPID!

MBreck - "Obama lead is tenuous...in Florida and North Carolina."----If this is true then that is bad news for Romney,there is no way Obama is taking NC, if Obama takes Florida it means he will win handily.

Voter registration and entuesiasm is way up on the republican side this time around and Romney enjoys a 6% to 8% advantage with independents. Even the sycophants are beginning to see the writing on the wall... Benghazi.... Slow response to Sandy... Increase in unemployment rate... Lack of entuesiasm .... Hard things to overcome.

Slow response to Sandy? Is that you Michael Brown? Ohio and Wisconsin are done and so is Willard

I am actually sick of hearing about the Embassy killings in Libya. No life lost is okay, however, the Republicans record in protecting embassies is much worse. They also voted to do away with funding to protect the embassies. Actually, there were twelve terrorist attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities abroad during George W. Bush’s tenure — the most of any president in history — and eight of those occurred while Donald Rumsfeld was in office.

Obama's accomplishments are numerous. He ended the war in Iraq, he passed the stimulus, he passed the affordable care act, he killed Osama bin laden and took out Qaddafi, he saved the auto industry, he repealed don't ask, don't tell, he helped fund education by taking banks out of the loan process. I could go on but I have already voted.

I don't think it was an early voter edge for Obama. I think he is always had the advantage!

Oh dear. Another nail in Obama's coffin? Or another fool pretending the race is even close. The latter my dear friends. It's over. And to those frothing at the mouth repugnants out there. It's OVER so begone!