Can We Predict Real Estate Bubbles?

Behavioural decision-making is key to understanding asset price dynamics, asset cycles and the macroeconomic interdependencies. The most destructive cycles are those in which asset price leverage and credits are intertwined, causing the greatest systemic effects. Asset-pricing dynamics impact economies from the local to the global level. Policy-makers, industry leaders and academics are currently debating whether asset-pricing dynamics can, or should, be managed in the public interest.

An early warning system prototype, conceived by the World Economic Forum’s Asset Price Dynamics Steering and Advisory Committees, was able to correctly describe recent market developments. The Shaping the Future of Real Estate initiative delves into the mechanisms of asset pricing to learn how to detect when and why markets shift from fundamentals and how detrimental, irreversible consequences can be mitigated.

Michael Buehler, Practice Lead Real Estate, World Economic Forum, said: “Within its first two years, the initiative developed a strong brand by engaging the key real estate ecosystem players: leading academic experts, central bankers and businesses from the real estate, investors and financial services industries. In this second project year, high-level multistakeholder discussions had been facilitated to further define asset ecosystems and describe how asset bubbles can be spotted early enough to be able to limit negative consequences. The focus was to help market players make more informed decisions. One workstream focused on designing a prototype early warning system to flag markets that will undergo severe downturns; a second work stream focused on institutionalizing the team’s insights and learning through developing an educational curriculum showcased through a case study.”

Since real estate is inherently cyclical, analysing and predicting market cycles have always been critical topics for real estate investors, tenants and developers. The global financial crisis has increased interest among regulators and central bankers at both national and international levels. While we cannot expect to avoid future downturns, we do think that accurate, expert analysis could limit their financial and social costs.

Barry M. Gosin, Chief Executive Officer, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF), and champion of the initiative, adds: “With first-hand appreciation for the devastating economic, social and political effects that result when a market crashes, and with an intimate understanding of the long-lasting effects of commercial real estate crashes, this initiative sought to understand if there was a way to institutionalize the methodology associated with predicting dramatic commercial real estate market downturns. In collaboration with the World Economic Forum, the Asset Price Dynamics Steering and Advisory Committees developed an early warning system prototype that quantifies relative risk and signals dramatic market downturns. Used in conjunction with other methods and analysis, we believe such a system could increase overall market transparency and help prevent destabilizing effects of capital rushing into and out of property markets during periods of dramatic change.”

Prakash Loungani, Adviser, Research Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF), said: “This initiative is thus welcome for the information it provides on the real estate ecosystem – the main players and their motives. But they are far more ambitious in providing an early warning system for commercial real estate crashes. Moreover, the intent is to build a system that can be scaled up to the global level – it is currently applied to 10 US cities – and also applied to other asset classes, including the residential real estate sector. So, does the effort succeed? Yes, in our view. The initiative shows that the risk of crashes in the commercial real estate prices in US cities can be linked to developments in a few macroeconomic indicators – inflation rates, bond yields, consumer confidence, employment –and to growth in the sector’s net operating income. There is thus no complex or secret ingredient needed to assess the risks of crashes: one only has to look out of the windscreen.”

Russians Need to Strategise Trade with Africa

Russian business lobbying groups, together with about 40 business and industry heads, have shown interest in exporting their products to markets in Africa but found it difficult to access facilitation procedures in some of the countries.

To understand some of the processes and procedures, Nonna Kagramanya, the Vice President of Delovaya Rossia (Business Russia), moderated a special seminar to constructively discuss emerging issues and possible solutions on various foreign economic tracks. Representatives of governments, development institutions, private businesses as well as Southern and Eastern African diplomats attended the event.

She said despite the relatively small trade turnover with African countries, Russian companies were very interested in establishing stable long-term contacts with African partners.

As a first step, Ms. Kagramanya proposed the creation of a permanent discussion-line for all interested participants of the seminar to discuss a set of priority problems and barriers when working with Africa.

“Today, Russia wants to deepen its understanding of the business climate and explore trade and partnership opportunities in Africa,” she underscored.

While meetings organised between Russia and Africa have to be used to discuss thoroughly how to trade, efforts should be made to remove or lessen some of the barriers for mutual benefits. Now Russia’s main goal is to decide what it can offer that foreign players haven’t yet been made available in the African market.

Contributing to the discussion, the General Director of Intelnexus, Anatoly Yakimenko, introduced the participants to the opportunities for the development of Russian-African business cooperation, noting the favourable and hindering factors in the African market.

He stressed the need for potential exporters of Russia to adopt high-tech production and solutions to expand initiatives for more effective positioning of high-tech companies in Africa.

The Deputy Director of the Department of Asia, Africa and Latin America of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Alexander Dianov, spoke about the non-financial support measures for Russian companies operating within the department.

“Currently, there are 10 intergovernmental commissions between the Russian Federation and African countries,” he said.

At the same time, he said: “There are trade missions only in four African countries, and if you take sub-Saharan African countries, the trade mission operates effectively only in South Africa. It is obvious that there is something to work on in terms of developing the infrastructure to support Russian businesses. If there is a serious request from the business community, we are ready to expand the geography of our presence.”

A representative of the Russian Export Centre (REC) in Africa, Dmitry Suchkov, drew the attention of companies to the need for in-depth analysis of national programmes of economic and investment development of African countries.

He spoke about the initiatives of the Coordinating Committee for Economic Cooperation with Sub-Saharan Africa.

Natalia Zaiser, the Chairperson of the Board of the African Business Initiative, pointed to the problems of ensuring security and stable “rules of the game,” as well as the need to identify five priority areas of business cooperation on the medium and long term perspectives for individual countries.

Representatives of the embassies of Rwanda, Tanzania and South Africa spoke about the integration processes on the African Continent, the potential of regional markets and national development initiatives.

Members of diplomatic missions also noted the greatly unrealised potential of cooperation between Russia and African countries, and interest in attracting investments in infrastructure, education and many other sectors.

They called for a wider interaction between African business circles and Russian businesses.

During the discussion, the participants mentioned high import duties, complicated certification procedure, high cost of products, expensive logistics, security and guarantee issues, and information vacuum as some of the barriers to Russian-African trade and economic cooperation. However, the participants agreed on the need to develop a comprehensive strategy for Russia to work with Africa.

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Curating a Vision with Young African Entrepreneurs

How can young people be involved in creating a future of work that is decent, equitable and bright? This November I was fortunate enough to take part in an event with this mandate at its heart.

The Youth Entrepreneurship and Self-Employment Forum (YES Forum) in Dakar, Senegal was co-organised by the ILO and our partners in the Global Initiative on Decent Jobs for Youth. It was a collaborative effort supporting young entrepreneurs in the region, and it was a joy to see this vision becoming real during the two-day event – with young entrepreneurs shining at different stages of the YES Forum.

More than 30 young entrepreneurs took on active speaking roles across the discussion sessions, a “Dragon’s Den” style pitching competition, and the Marketplace. This Marketplace offered participants the opportunity to float in between booths and to have one-on-one interactions with the presenting entrepreneurs and organisations.

The vibrant tone was set at the very start, with all participants given hand-made, customised notebooks, the product of an all-female team led by entrepreneur Ndey Fatou Njie for her business TIGA Gambia. TIGA Gambia is now an all-around fashion and accessories retailer, but originally zoomed in on providing locally-inspired swimwear – a large market gap that Ndey spotted and filled!

Not only were the TIGA Gambia notebooks a showstopper, they were also a colourful and popular extension of the empowering message of the YES Forum.

The innovative and vibrant spirit of entrepreneurs in their element was palpable all through the Forum, but shone particularly during the networking lunch and the Marketplace. It was difficult to lure the participants back into the plenary after these events, because they were so busy talking, forging synergies and building contacts.

While the young entrepreneurs embraced their speaking opportunities to the fullest, they also created a wonderfully inclusive setting that allowed everyone’s successes to be seen and recognised. I was particularly touched when the pitching competition winner, Malick Diouf, CEO of LAfricaMobile, immediately called his three competitors onto the stage to congratulate them on their incredible work.

Malick was humble about his win but his company deserves a special shout-out. LAfricaMobile serves as a digital bridge between African media publishers and organizations wanting to disseminate their content to the African diaspora. As a comms aficionado I was particularly impressed by how effortless their SMS service is in helping the African diaspora connect to what is going on in their home countries.

All in all, the YES Forum left a lasting impression on me for two reasons: Firstly because of the level of mutual support and cooperation that the young entrepreneurs showed, and secondly because the Forum truly catered for these young entrepreneurs and allowed them to share their stories and to explore collaboration. I believe it will leave a lasting result – of stronger alliances and greater empowerment.

Mariama Johm, founder of Afri Taste, a Banjul health joint that combats fruit and vegetable waste, summed up the atmosphere in her remarks during the Young Global Entrepreneurs panel: “I am glad we have the youth actually speaking here. We, young entrepreneurs, want to speak and let policymakers hear from us – not only here, but we want to make governments take into consideration what we are saying and that they should not make decisions on our behalf.”

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Easing US-China trade tensions could save millions of jobs

Millions of jobs in the Asia and Pacific region have
been put at risk by conflicts over trade, despite a recent agreement not to
escalate tit-for-tat tariffs by the United States and China, according to a new
regional UN report.

The 2018 Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment
Report, issued by the UN’s
development arm in the region, ESCAP, suggests that an escalating “tariff war” and resulting drop in
confidence next year, could cut nearly $400 billion from the global gross
domestic product, drive regional GDP down by $117 billion.

“As production shifts take place and resources are
reallocated across sectors and borders due to the trade conflicts, tens of
millions of workers may see their jobs displaced and be forced to seek new
employment,” said Mia Mikic, the head of Trade, Investment and Innovation
Division at ESCAP.

That said, the report also noted trade tensions have
already had had a major impact, resulting in disruptions to existing supply
chains and dampening investment. Trade growth slowed after the first half of
2018, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the region are also expected
to continue on a downward trend next year, following a 4 per cent drop overall
this year.

In such a scenario, regional investment will be key to
creating new economic opportunities, says Ms. Mikic, adding that “complementary
policies” such as labour, education and retraining, and social protection
measures must be placed high on the policymaking agenda.

ESCAP has also called on countries to take full
advantage of all existing initiatives to strengthen regional cooperation,
including a new UN treaty on digitalizing trade procedures and enabling
cross-border paperless trade in the zone.

‘Trade war’ has no winners

The report has also underscored that neither China nor
the US can win a “trade war”, explaining that “both will see significant
economic losses from continuing conflict.”

It also finds that implementation of mega-regional
trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, among
the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its six partners –
Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and the Republic of Korea – could
offset much of the economic losses from trade tensions.

The 2018 report estimates that implementation of such
agreements could boost exports by 1.3 to 2.9 per cent and add 3.5 to 12.5
million jobs in the Asia-Pacific.

ESCAP, or the Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific is largest among
UN regional commissions. Its 53 member States and 9 associate members span a
geographic area from the Pacific island of Tuvalu in the east to Turkey in the
west, and Russia in the north to New Zealand in the south. The region is home
to nearly two-thirds of the world’s population.

In addition to countries in the Asia-Pacific region,
ESCAP’s membership also includes France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom
and the US.