Being as SEB failed to predict the last bust, don't be suprised their "fair weather predictions" are just bollox.

There will be a vicious recession starting in the next 3 months and GDP will FALL in Estonia not rise.

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"A drop in demand for capital equipment, durable consumer goods and cars will strike at the euro zone’s industrial heartland, including Germany.

Ms Boone reckons GDP will fall by around 0.5% in Germany next year and by the same amount in the whole zone.

In September the IMF forecast that the zone’s GDP would grow by 1.1% in 2012 but estimated that if European banks were deleveraging quickly (as they are now), the economy could shrink by around 2%.

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A downturn of such severity will hugely increase the pressures within the zone.

Investors will be even less willing to finance banks, as more garden-variety loans to businesses and householders turn bad.

As unemployment rises, tax receipts will go down and welfare payments up, making it harder for governments to rein in their deficits and hit the targets they have set, and causing bond markets to question their solvency more pointedly still.

In such circumstances, the chances of a policy error or broader panic increase sharply.

The calculations of bond investors, bank depositors and politicians are prone to sudden change.

Hopes that the fracture of the euro zone might be averted by far-sighted policymakers could give way to a belief that it is inevitable.

Such beliefs, once they take hold, are likely to be self-fulfilling.

How? The drying-up of funding for sovereigns and for banks is a threat to the integrity of the euro, because of the stark divide between debtor and creditor countries within the zone.

As late as March 2010, Jean-Claude Trichet, then head of the ECB, boasted that simply belonging to the euro area automatically ensured balance-of-payments financing. It doesn’t look that way now."
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