Monday, December 14, 2015

ISIS is losing

ISIS is losing.

Several trends support that assessment:

The amount of territory
that ISIS, the self-proclaimed Islamic caliphate, controls is diminishing.
Syrian rebel groups, Iranian surrogates, Kurdish forces, and Iraqi forces
are all gaining ground in their battles with ISIS.

Disenchantment among
the people that ISIS rules is growing. ISIS' inability to establish an
approximation of justice, deliver essential social services, and perform
other basic government functions feed that unrest and dissatisfaction.
Harsh, unmerciful laws, policies, and punishments, many of which lack a
Koranic mandate, further alienate governed peoples.

Recruits and
prospective recruits attracted by ISIS' ideology are fleeing ISIS in a
small but increasing trend.

State opposition to
ISIS is quickly becoming universal, uniting disparate states that include
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Iraq, the US, the UK, France, and others.

First, ISIS does not recruit, aid, or oversee homegrown
US killers such as the couple responsible for the mass murders in San
Bernardino. Although the couple found ISIS' rhetoric attractive and perhaps
inspirational, this couple was a "time bomb" in waiting. Had ISIS not
existed, another group's radical ideology would probably have caused this couple
to "detonate."

The best steps toward preventing similar future
incidents include (1) ending the American gunslinger culture, (2) implementing
effective gun control programs, and (3) adopting policies to improve justice in
the US and especially in the Middle East. To achieve the latter, the US should
adopt policies that equitably balance Palestinian and Israeli concerns/aspirations,
end support for exploitative tyrannies such as those in Syria and Saudi Arabia,
and give Islam and Muslims the same respect given to Christianity and Christians.

Furthermore, public opinion leaders in the US
should dial down their rhetoric. ISIS does not pose an existential threat to
the US. Even if one considers the incident in San Bernardino to be a terrorist attack,
which I do not (cf. The
San Bernardino killings: crime or terrorism?), the incident was only
indirectly related to ISIS.

Second, sending more US troops to fight ISIS
actually helps ISIS. Few people in the Middle East want foreign troops – any foreign
troops – on their soil. The battle against ISIS is one that only the peoples of
the Middle East can win. This, in fact, is what they are doing. The US is
neither a global cop nor omnipotent. We can encourage, we can provide humanitarian
assistance, and, in very limited ways, provide military equipment and
munitions. Anything else is counterproductive, at least in the long run.
Demagoguery unhelpfully panders to fear; genuine leadership devises effective,
ethical responses and then sells those responses to decision makers and the
public.

ISIS is losing. We need to stay the course,
confident in our choices and security.