Following last week’s PED news coming out of Miami, I was actually planning on this post being about baseball’s real drug problem: drunk driving. But that was before Jim Caple’s post on ESPN.com on Friday, where he critiqued the use of WAR by the more statistically inclined. Clearly, a statistical measure is much less important in the long run than the fact that a lot of players, managers and broadcasters are taking stupid risks with not only their lives, but also the lives of others. As a self professed stat head, I had some issues with Caple’s characterization of those who use WAR and how we use it.

My issues weren’t with Caple’s discussion of the drawbacks of WAR. It’s true that there is no definitive WAR figure. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs not only have different versions that use different metrics, but they also put “replacement level” at a different place. Baseball-Reference has a team full of replacement level players winning about 52 games, while FanGraphs gives them 43 wins. On top of that, a good number of baseball teams have their own internal versions of WAR that are completely proprietary.

It’s also true that one of WAR’s strengths, the fact that it takes defense into the equation, also leads to one of its biggest problems: as defensive statistics are new and not based upon as clear cut of information as did a player get a hit or make an out, they are less reliable than offensive or pitching statistics. When you see a large swing between a position player’s rWAR and fWAR, it’s almost always because Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs judge their defense differently.

My issue with Caple’s post was that he argued that those of us who use advanced statistics don’t understand WAR’s flaws on the basis that we have issues with Miguel Cabrera winning the American League MVP over Mike Trout.

Let’s stop pretending that anyone thinks that Miguel Cabrera isn’t one of the best hitters in the game. But the fact is that he won the MVP because he won the Triple Crown, and that means he won the MVP because he led the league in RBIs. And the biggest reason he led the league in RBIs was not because he improved off of his 2011 effort, but because Austin Jackson raised his on base percentage 60 points and because Cabrera bats third in that line up.

The mental gymnastics that the people who voted for Cabrera went through were in competition for a medal. Some said he deserved credit for being willing to switch to third base when Prince Fielder signed, despite him being terrible there defensively and Mike Trout being an excellent defensive center fielder, a more demanding defensive position than the hot corner. Then there was the argument that Cabrera made the playoffs and the Trout did not. But Cabrera only made the playoffs because the Tigers played in the worst division in baseball, while Trout’s Angels finished with a better record despite playing in the very tough AL West.

Trout was better than Cabrera last year. WAR is not the reason why Trout was better than Cabrera, but is merely one (of many) pieces of evidence in his favor. Trout put up nearly identical offensive numbers while being much more valuable on the base paths and defensively. If the BBWAA wanted to award Cabrera the MVP based on meeting a neat but archaic set of criteria, that’s their prerogative. But just be honest about it.

And don’t tell the statistically inclined about the problems with WAR. We’re aware it needs refinement. We’re aware that defensive statistics need a lot of fine tuning. We’re aware that, eventually, there is probably going to have to be some agreement about how WAR is calculated. We’re aware that Miguel Cabrera is one of baseball’s best hitters. We don’t think that the MVP should just automatically go to whomever has the highest WAR. But in 2012, Mike Trout was the American League’s, and all of baseball’s, best player. With or without WAR.

Noah Eisner is a Chicago attorney living in the western suburbs with his wife and son (and impending daughter). When he isn’t practicing law or entertaining a toddler, Noah follows Cubs baseball with a focus on the farm system and sabermetric analysis. His Cubs-related ramblings can be followed on Twitter @Noah_Eisner.

Totally disagree. War is subjective and ave rbi and HR aren’t subjective. Cabrera was a far more important player. Trout was good but Cabrera was better. Let the slings and arrows begin!

1B7L16P13C2B6

RBIs are dependent on having runners in front of you get on base.

Allan

1B7L16 that is true but they are still Runs BAttered IN!!!! There is no debate.

1B7L16P13C2B6

If Trout had played the entire year with the MLB team he would have had a better year than Miggy and the Angels are playing in October.

Allan

1B that is only speculation and can never be proven

Norm Bothwell

*edit
So, if Player A has 90 RBI’s and Player B has 75 RBI’s, what does that tell you about the players?

Allan

irrelevant who hit #1 and who hit #3 there is a reason for it.

1B7L16P13C2B6

I need to look at it in conjunction with AVG, OBP, SLG, and I need to splits of how both fared with RISP

Chuck

My support of Cabrerra for MVP was completely based on what the “V” in MVP stands for. I also dislike giving MVPs to players who may have had a fluke year (not to say that Trout is a fluke, but he has not had multiple MVP caliber years).

Trout may have had a somewhat better statistical season, but without Cabrerra the Tigers do not make the playoffs. Without Trout, the Angels still don’t make the playoffs. This makes Cabrerra’s season more valuable.

The award is not “Best Player”. It is Most Valuable Player. Deal with it.

1B7L16P13C2B6

But I can argue that if Trout plays the entire season with the MLB team, the Angels make it to the playoffs.

Chuck

But, he did not and they did not. Cabrerra did and they did. Results matter.

Chuck

Pure speculation. He could have hit .150 in those missed games due to a horrible slump as he recovered from bruised ribs he received from getting drilled in game 1. That is akin to saying that a coinflip will be tails just because it has come up tails 5 times in a row.

Chuck

They both play baseball?

Jedi

I’ll join when we get to the ‘absolutely nothing’ part…

Jedi

Tells me that he batted in more runs…which is kind of the point of the game. (Please don’t reply to this, if you feel the need, you’re not sensing the sarcasm)
Bottom line is – Noah even concedes it – there are plenty of flaws in advanced metrics too…so let’s not be preposterous and act like anyone simply looks at a single stat – WAR or RBIs. It’s a tired, old straw man that the saberdorks like to trot out and make them feel better.

Norm Bothwell

Ah, you can reply to me in my question to Allan, so you can get your pot shot in at the “saberdorks”. OK.

Norm Bothwell

What’s the reason?

Noah_I

This actually is essentially my point, without the sarcasm. Among the people who like using advanced statistics, no one who is on FanGraphs or Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America just looks at one statistic and says “it’s gospel!” David Szymborski understands the flaw in ZIPS, which is his own system: it regresses everyone to the mean. So over the aggregate, he’ll be pretty close to right, but as far as individual players are concerned, many of course won’t regress to the mean. The only people who point to one advanced stat as gospel either don’t understand the way the statistics work, don’t understand how math works, or both. And that was my big problem with Caple’s argument. He was acting as though the people on FanGraphs who were using WAR as one piece of evidence in their argument that Trout was the best player in the AL last year were only looking at WAR. The only people who say that whoever has the highest WAR should win the MVP award don’t get it.

Buddy

The award isn’t “who was most valuable to his team.” The award is “who was the league’s most valuable player.” To me, being the best player in the league makes you the most valuable player in the league. And to me, that player was Trout. Just my two cents. Probably worth less.

1B7L16P13C2B6

Worth less in Canada for sure since they have offically stopped minting pennies

Norm

That’s fine, I don’t agree with giving Cabrera bonus point because his team played in a weaker division and was able to make the playoffs despite winning less games.

Allan

Cabrera carried Detroit he is the MVP without a doubt. No Cabrera no AL Championship and World Series.

Jedi

Wait, you think I’m Allan? You really have no idea how to do the fake name thing, nor to investigate if someone else has done it either. Kills me that you tried to deny it…

Jedi

But Noah, isn’t that the argument that is so frequently applied to people who don’t have your passion for advanced metrics? It’s a bit hypocritical to say ‘don’t pigeonhole me as a one-stat guy’ while you spend the entire 6th paragraph positioning Cabrera supporters (i.e. those who don’t fancy advanced metrics, or in Norm’s parlance – flat-earthers) as exactly such people.

For the record, we all know I don’t worship at the altar of advanced metrics – they have their place, but I’m not the unabashed saberdork. I also, believe it or not, advocated Trout as the AL MVP. But just because some valued more what Cabrera did, that doesn’t make them a head-in-the-sand moron. It’s a fine line…either answer can be reasonable, they are both great players who had great seasons.

Jedi

Or maybe that’s not what you’re trying to say…sometimes it’s easier if you post your reply in English.

1B7L16P13C2B6

WOOT! WOOT!! Entertainment tonight!!! Keep the show going for the next 2 hours, I got to pop a bag of popcorn, order up a pizza, and enjoy this on my couch!

Jedi

No Verlander and Detroit isn’t in either of those places either. Probably true without Fielder also. EVERY playoff team has a few guys that you could easily say that about, doesn’t them all MVPs.

Norm

There is the reading comprehension failure again…

Jedi

I can’t comprehend why you use your commas in the manner which you’ve chosen. Guilty.

Braun wasn’t clean then, isn’t clean now…surely no one is surprised that his FedEx loophole turned out to be garbage.

Verncrowe5

Say it again, y’all!

Verncrowe5

Obviously there are a lot of different definitions of MVP. I do enjoy the debates! Some good points to be had. My vote would have probably went to Trout. I have trouble voting for someone who didn’t play a whole season, but his numbers cannot be ignored.

1B7L16P13C2B6

War! Huh! Yeah!

Chuck

I do not believe that pitchers should be eligible for MVP. They have the Cy Young which is just as prestigious as MVP.

1B7L16P13C2B6

If they had another award for the best hitter, then would it be okay to give pitchers the MVP?

1B7L16P13C2B6

The fact that he didn’t come up until the end of April makes his numbers even more impressive. I remember looking at Braun’s numbers his rookie year, and he didn’t come up until the end of May. I was like had he been with the team all year, MVP would have been between him and Tubby Veggy, and we likely don’t make the playoffs. The Brewers likely have a 15-game lead on us in June instead of an 8-game lead.

Chuck

I don’t think the Sliver Slugger is nearly as important as MVP or Cy Young.

Then again, I don’t really take the awards THAT seriously. If somebody wants to give the MVP to a pitcher, go for it. It just makes the Cy Young presentation a bit of an afterthought.

1B7L16P13C2B6

I meant create a new award, because every position gets a Silver Slugger, including the pitcher

Chuck

So the winners of the Best Hitter and Cy Young have a showdown for MVP? Sure, why not. If you really want to nitpick if the pitcher was more valuable than the hitter. However, you may be disappointed when the Cy Young winner hardly ever wins MVP because pitchers are typically “less valuable” than everyday players because a top starter usually plays in 35 or so games while a top hitter plays in 155.

Then again, to me, the MVP may not necessarily be the best hitter or pitcher. They are the most “valuable” and the concept of value is ethereal and difficult to pin down.

1B7L16P13C2B6

I’ve wondered why starters can’t pitch everyday. I’ve watched cricket games in the past, and the bowlers (pitchers) they can throw 120 pitches everyday 5 days in a row.