Iron Ore – MINING.comhttp://www.mining.com
Tue, 18 Dec 2018 23:11:07 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8Australia federal court narrows BHP's suits over Samarco disasterhttp://www.mining.com/web/australia-federal-court-narrows-bhps-suits-samarco-disaster/
Tue, 18 Dec 2018 20:08:25 +0000http://www.mining.com/?post_type=syndicatedcontent&p=959748BHP said it expected to record a charge of $650 million in its fiscal 2018 results on account of the failure but the charge was at the lower end of expectations according to analysts.

]]>MELBOURNE – The Federal Court of Australia on Tuesday ordered that the number of class-action lawsuits against BHP Group over a Brazilian mine collapse be narrowed to one from three.

BHP is facing legal challenges over the 2015 collapse of the Fundao tailings dam, which stored mining waste at a mined owned by the Samarco joint venture between BHP and Brazilian iron ore mining giant Vale. The disaster killed 19 and spilled about 40 million cubic metres of sludge over communities and into the Rio Doce river and the Atlantic Ocean.

The Federal Court ruled that a class action suit led by Vince Impiombato, filed in the state of Victoria, could proceed. The suit claims that Impiombato, a former BHP shareholder, sustained losses stemming from deceptive conduct and failures in continuous disclosure requirements. BHP said it expected to record a charge of $650 million in its fiscal 2018 results on account of the failure

Additionally, the court placed a permanent stay, or hold, on a class action led by an Australian retirement fund and a temporary stay on a suit brought by the Los Angeles County Employees Retirement Association until Sept. 1, 2019, in order to cut costs and reduce court overlap since the allegations were similar.

Impiombato is represented by specialist law firm Phi Finney McDonald, and funded by litigation company KTMC Funding LLC.

A BHP spokesman said the company was defending the claim.

BHP still faces lawsuits in other jurisdictions. Last month, SPG Law, a British offshoot of a U.S. litigator, filed three legal claims for unlimited damages over the Fundao dam failure in a court in the English city of Liverpool.

In June, Samarco, Vale SA and BHP signed a deal with Brazilian authorities to settle a 20 billion reais ($5.30 billion) lawsuit related to the failure.

The miner also agreed to fund a total of $211 million in financial support for the Renova Foundation, created to help victims of the Samarco dam disaster in Brazil.

In July, BHP said it expected to record a charge of $650 million in its fiscal 2018 results on account of the failure. The charge was at the lower end of expectations according to analysts.

]]>Nigeria's first gold refinery plans to triple capacity in five yearshttp://www.mining.com/web/nigerias-first-gold-refinery-plans-triple-capacity-five-years/
Tue, 18 Dec 2018 19:58:05 +0000http://www.mining.com/?post_type=syndicatedcontent&p=959737Most ore will be sourced locally from various locations including the northwestern states of Zamfara, Kebbi and Kaduna, as well as the central states of Kwara and Niger.

]]>LAGOS – Nigeria's first gold refinery is expected to more than triple its capacity within five years after operations begin next June, an executive at the company developing it said on Tuesday.

Nere Teriba, vice chairman of local firm Kian Smith Trade & Co, said the refinery would initially be able to produce three tonnes per month of gold and one tonne of silver, rising to 10 tonnes a month of gold and three tonnes of silver in five years.

Nigeria has largely untapped deposits of 44 minerals, which include gold, iron ore, coal, tin and zinc, in more than 500 locations spread across Africa's most populous nation. But most of the mining is artisanal and the absence of gold refineries means value typically has not been added in the supply chain. We are working with the government on a proposal to reduce import duties on gold ore

Construction workers broke ground at the refinery site in the southwestern state of Ogun last week. Teriba said work was expected to be completed by the end of February 2019 and production would start by the end of June.

"It is a five-year expansion plan to get to 10 tonnes a month of gold. Silver will probably go up to about three tonnes a month," Teriba said in an interview with Reuters in Lagos.

The company said it would supply Nigeria's central bank as well as the jewellery industry.

"The gold supply for the refinery will be coming from Nigeria … but also from the rest of Africa," she said, adding that Kian Smith had a memorandum of understanding with a supplier to bring gold from Ghana, Sierra Leone and Tanzania.

She said one supplier had committed to providing a total of 100 kg each month from Ghana and Sierra Leone. Teriba did not identify the supplier.

Most ore will be sourced locally from various locations including the northwestern states of Zamfara, Kebbi and Kaduna, as well as the central states of Kwara and Niger. Teriba said the company had MoUs from about 200 gold suppliers.

Some 80 percent of mining in Nigeria is carried out on an artisanal basis and gold is routinely smuggled out of the country illegally to neighbouring Cameroon and Niger, as well as Togo before being registered in those countries.

Teriba said Kian Smith was in talks with the government after proposing an altered approach to import duties and royalties.

"We are working with the government on a proposal to reduce import duties on gold ore," she said, adding that the company had asked the government to make refined gold bars and coins free of value-added tax.

Gold mines produce gold dore bars, a semi-pure version of the substance, which are sent to a refinery for further purification.

Under the current system, miners are responsible for paying the royalty on gold, an approach Teriba said caused "leakages" because most miners were artisanal. The refinery will seek to incentivise suppliers by paying royalties on their behalf.

She talks with the government on royalty payments were at an advanced stage.

]]>HBIS Group, China's second-biggest steelmaker, has signed a memorandum of understanding on a $4.4 billion project in the Philippines that will eventually produce 8 million tonnes of steel per year, according to Chinese state media reports and a statement from the Philippines.

The so-called Philippine Iron and Steel Project will be the Southeast Asian country's first integrated steel complex and represents the biggest industrial investment from China in the Philippines to date, a Dec. 14 statement from the Philippine Department of Trade and Industry said.

The two-phase project, to be located in the province of Misamis Oriental on Mindanao island, will produce 4.5 million tonnes of hot-rolled coil and 600,000 tonnes of slab annually in the $3 billion first phase, according to the statement.

Output capacity will reach 8 million tonnes through a second phase, with the overall construction and ramp-up period slated to span three-five years.

"This project is very important to our industrial development and will allow us to pursue President (Rodrigo) Duterte's vision of having a globally competitive integrated iron and steel industry," Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez said in the statement, which said the project would also create over 20,000 job opportunities."This project is very important to our industrial development"

Jin Yuan, commercial counsellor at the Chinese embassy in the Philippines, described the project as an "important follow-up" to cooperation between the two countries as part of Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative, according to the state-run China Metallurgical News.

HBIS, based in China's biggest steel province of Hebei, has been forced to look overseas for production growth as the Chinese government clamps down on new capacity in China for environmental reasons.

]]>Vale buys innovator New Steel for $500mhttp://www.mining.com/web/vale-buys-innovator-new-steel-500-mln/
Wed, 12 Dec 2018 17:58:58 +0000http://www.mining.com/?post_type=syndicatedcontent&p=958589Vale has focused on sales of better quality iron ore, mostly from its S11D project in Pará state, as demand for the cleaner and less polluting product rises in China, its main market.

]]>RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazilian miner Vale SA , the world's biggest iron ore and nickel producer, said on Tuesday it had agreed with Hankoe FIP investment fund to buy innovation company New Steel for $500 million.

New Steel develops innovative technology to process iron ore and currently owns patents in 56 countries for its dry processing method known as Fines Dry Magnetic Separation or FDMS, it said.

The transaction is expected to occur in 2019, subject to approval by antitrust authorities in Brazil.

The New Steel technology will support the development of Vale’s high-grade pellet feed initiatives, including the Southeastern System 20 Mtpy pellet feed project, Vale said.

Vale has focused on sales of better quality iron ore, mostly from its S11D project in Pará state, as demand for the cleaner and less polluting product rises in China, its main market.

]]>Emirates Steel, the largest steel producer in the United Arab Emirates, has refinanced $650 million of debt with a new loan and sukuk or Islamic bond, sources close to the transaction told Reuters.

The company owned by Abu Dhabi’s Senaat, a state-owned investor in the emirate’s industrial sector, raised $1.3 billion in credit facilities in 2014, due in 2022.

It hired BNP Paribas to coordinate a $400 million sharia-compliant loan financing, Reuters reported in September. The residual balance was settled in full with funds from the $400 million loan and the Senaat sukuk, or Islamic bond

The $1.3 billion loan had been halved to $650 million via scheduled repayments since 2014.

The residual balance was settled in full with funds from the $400 million loan and the Senaat sukuk, one of the sources close to the transaction said.

The revised debt structure of Emirates Steel is currently an Islamic four-year term loan of $400 million and the parent company’s $300 million sukuk, the source said.

"The loan and the sukuk tied together nicely for the refinancing," said a banker involved in the deal.

Emirates Steel declined to comment.

Some companies in the Gulf are refinancing their debt obligations ahead of maturity, or adding new leverage to their balance sheets, to avoid having to pay higher debt costs later due to expected increases in global interest rates.

]]>PARIS – ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, said on Tuesday it was "absolutely critical" that Europe protect itself with measures to restrict imports of steel and remedy weaknesses in its existing system.

The European Union imposed provisional safeguards in July combining quotas and tariffs to counter steel flooding into the market after U.S. President Donald Trump hit U.S. steel imports with 25 percent tariffs.

The provisional measures are in place for 200 days, meaning they would expire in early February, unless they are replaced by a longer-term system.

"We think these provisional safeguard measures have a lot of weaknesses. It is absolutely critical that the provisional safeguard measures are made into final measures (and) that these weaknesses are rectified," ArcelorMittal chief financial officer Aditya Mittal told a company presentation in Paris.It is absolutely critical that the provisional safeguard measures are made final and weaknesses are rectified

Mittal said those weaknesses included exemptions for developing countries, which for example has allowed Turkey to export more steel to Europe.

Mittal urged the European Commission, which coordinates trade policy for the EU's 28 members, to set quotas per quarter, not for the full-year, which could allow a year's worth of imports in just a few months.

"That would create tremendous volatility and cause a lot of disruption to our European business," he said.

The other weakness, Mittal said, was the exemption for tonnage of steel already on ships.

"The amount of tonnes on ships was significantly larger than the quotas so in actual fact we did not really have provisional safeguard measures in place," he said, adding the company was working with European governments to ensure that the final measures were effective.

In ArcelorMittal's other main market, North America, the company has benefited from U.S. import tariffs on steel, which have boosted prices, leading to increased investment in the industry there.

Asked about whether such measures amounted to protectionism, Mittal said the ultimate problem was overcapacity in China.

"It begins with China and ends with China. China created tremendous global overcapacity and subsidised its steel business and sought to solve that problem by exporting around the world," he said.

Mittal recognised that China had cut steelmaking capacity, of some 140 million tonnes to date, but even with more planned by 2023, they would still fall short of the 250 million tonne reduction that ArcelorMittal advocated.

]]>Global miner Anglo American (LON:AAL) is ending 2018 on a high note, the company reported Tuesday. Anglo expects total production for the year to be 2% above of previous guidance, with costs decreasing by 5%.

“We are also confident about the outlook, with production expected to increase by 3% in 2019, with cost inflation fully absorbed by our productivity and cost improvements,” chief executive Mark Cutifani in a briefing for analysts and investors.

Cutifani noted that the company, which has mining operations in Southern Africa, North and South America and Australia, forecasts a further 5% production increase in both 2020 and 2021.

"In the next 3-5 years, we're basically growing the business around 20%," Cutifani said.

The flagged output increases won’t come for free for the world's number four diversified miner. Completed and planned expansions at some of its mines, particularly aging copper operations in Chile, means the company expects total capital expenditure to average between $2.8 billion and $3.1 billion sometime after 2021.

The world's No. 4 diversified miner expects total production for the year to be 2% above of previous guidance, with costs decreasing by 5%.

After reducing net debt by more than $9 billion over the last three years, Anglo American will now drive enhanced returns through capital allocation options, Cutifani said. The company, however, remains the only one of the top diversified miners not to have launched a share buyback program yet.

“We have a well sequenced range of high returning, quick payback growth options, from life extensions in diamonds and metallurgical coal, to growth across our copper, diamonds and met coal businesses in particular”, the executive said.

Anglo also said its Minas-Rio iron ore mine in Brazil should resume operations before the end of the year, producing between 16 million tonnes and 19 million tonnes in 2019.

The company halted production at the mine, its biggest development project, after two leaks in March affected a pipeline that carries the ore to port in Rio de Janeiro state for export. The impact of those incidents in the company's earnings are estimated to be between $300 and $400 million.

Shares in Anglo American were up 3.2% in London at 1,625.60 pence by 11:40 am local time.

]]>China’s monthly copper imports dropped for the first time this year — joined by declines in iron ore and soybeans — as economic growth slows in the world’s biggest consumer of commodities amid a simmering trade row with the U.S.

Oft-cited as a market indicator for economic health, the metal has been under pressure since the summer, threatening to unwind a three-year rally. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warned in a note this week that conversations with copper investors revealed increasing worries over China’s economy. This concern was backed up by broader trade figures Saturday that showed growth in imports and exports faltering over the month, as tensions with the U.S. stall trade.

Copper imports in November fell 3 percent on the year, the first such decline since December and flagged by a near halving in import premiums in recent months. Exports of steel also waned, as did purchases of its key ingredient, iron ore. “The general decline in copper imports, iron-ore imports and steel exports can be linked to China’s economic slowdown,” said Xianfei Ji, an analyst with Guotai Junan Futures Co.

Other casualties from the trade war included the worst November in six years for Chinese soybean imports, as buyers shied off U.S. purchases made too expensive by tariffs. Conversely, aluminum exports hit a near-four-year high, offering some relief from bloated domestic supply. But the cause was again trade related as China is shipping more to take advantage of supply dislocations arising from U.S. action against United Co. Rusal, Russia’s biggest producer.

“Although the resumption of trade negotiations between China and the U.S. may reduce the risk of further escalation of trade friction, China’s domestic and external demand are under downward pressure,” CICC analysts said in a note.

The trade data for energy products marched to a different beat. Inbound shipments of coal slumped because of policy restraints, while cleaner-burning gas saw imports surge ahead of peak demand over the winter. And crude imports hit a record as buyers looked to tap higher refining margins and hit annual targets before the year’s end.

]]>Vale says recent dip in global steel prices is temporaryhttp://www.mining.com/web/vale-says-recent-dip-global-steel-prices-temporary/
Thu, 06 Dec 2018 17:31:34 +0000http://www.mining.com/?post_type=syndicatedcontent&p=957761Global capacity utilisation in the steel sector has risen to 76% this year from 73% last year, indicating excess capacity in the sector is shrinking.

]]>LONDON – Last year it was cobalt. The year before that it was lithium.

This year it is vanadium, another esoteric element of the periodic table that is on a wild bull rampage.

Vanadium prices in China have more than tripled over the course of 2018, albeit with some recent softening from their early-November peaks.

The share price of South Africa's Bushveld Minerals , one of only a handful of primary producers, has soared from less than 10 pence per share at the start of the year to 42 pence currently.

Vanadium is the latest exotic metal to feel the new energy heat. The vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) is a breakthrough technology in energy storage, a fast-growing component of the infrastructure needed to accommodate the global shift to renewable energy.

Vanadium's problem, however, is that there is already a structural shortage of the stuff rooted in its historical co-dependence on the steel sector.

Supply scarcity and the resulting price volatility are the two biggest hurdles to vanadium's potential bright electric future.

Strengthening demand

Vanadium, named after the Norse god of beauty Vanadis, was only isolated in metallic form in the second half of the 19th century.

But its properties, particularly its capacity to strengthen steel, were quickly appreciated. Henry Ford's Model T car used the metal in its steel alloy chassis.

Adding just one kilogramme of vanadium to a tonne of steel has the effect of doubling the strength of the steel. That explains why the steel sector accounts for just over 90 percent of global usage, according to analysts at SP Angel. ("Commodity Research Note: Vanadium", Q1 2018)

Given China's dominance of global steel production, it's no great surprise that the country is the single largest user of vanadium.

And it's China that has laid the foundations for vanadium's spectacular price rally this year.

The country has changed the specifications of high-strength rebar construction steel to improve earthquake resistance. If vanadium is going to play a starring role in the coming green power revolution, it will need to find a way of breaking its circular dependency on the steel industry.

The changes, just implemented, will drive higher use of vanadium and although the amounts involved are tiny, the cumulative impact will be to increase Chinese consumption by around 10,000 tonnes per year, according to SP Angel, citing China's Iron and Steel Research Institute.

That's the equivalent of around 12 percent of global vanadium production in 2016.

Weakening supply

This one-off demand boost is happening just as China is weakening its own supply capacity as part of its drive to introduce more environmentally friendly policies.

Vanadium is a very elusive metal. It took two "discoveries", one by a Spanish-Mexican mineralogist and a later one by a Swede before everyone accepted it was indeed a new element.

It is largely produced through the processing of magnetite iron ore, with around 73 percent of output coming in the form of a slag generated in the steel production process.

The steel mills that produce it are not the same ones that consume it. Rather, they have historically been the higher-cost, lower-quality operators feeding low-grade magnetite iron ore into their alloy mix.

Precisely the sort of material that is being used less by China's steel producers as they favour higher-grade ore to maximise efficiencies and reduce environmental emissions.

The gap between high-grade and low-grade pricing has been a defining feature of the iron ore market this year but one that simultaneously reduces vanadium slag production.

Just to compound this evolving supply challenge, Beijing has also banned the import of four types of vanadium slag, cutting off around 4,500-5,000 tonnes of annual supply from Russia, according to SP Angel.

Another potential source of supply, stone coal, is also being restricted by China's war on smog.

Chinese regulators are refusing to issue permits to existing stone coal producers and although there is a collective attempt to upgrade processes to achieve lower emissions, the short-term effect is to reduce even further China's vanadium production capacity.

Perfect storm

China's moves both to boost demand and limit supply have created a perfect bull storm for the tiny vanadium market.

Exports from the country have dried up, stocks everywhere are falling and prices have been on a super-charged rally.

The market was already in an 8,000-tonne supply deficit last year and SP Angel expects demand to continue exceeding supply through 2020.

Indeed, "we are struggling to see how the market may supply demand vanadium in the next two years and we feel vanadium prices should settle at a higher price level than previously envisaged for the longer term." ("Mining Flash Note: Bushveld Minerals", Nov. 9, 2018)

Unless there is a technical breakthrough in either stone coal or by-product slag processing, the slack will have to be made up by primary producers such as Bushveld and Largo Resources, which operates the Maracas Menchen mine in Brazil.

There is no shortage of vanadium wannabes but as ever with new projects, lead times are long and susceptible to delays, meaning forecast new supply "is not expected until at least 2021," SP Angel notes.

Breaking dependency

It's a problematic backdrop for a metal that could play a key role in the build-out of energy infrastructure, particularly in developing countries.

Storage systems accounted for only around 2 percent of global demand last year, according to Bushveld Minerals.

But future usage is potentially huge.

"Current forecasts estimate that VRFBs will account for 20 percent of vanadium consumption by 2030 but with significant upside of as much as 50,000 tonnes if they capture 25 percent of the energy storage market within the next 10 years." Bushveld says on its website.

That's around half of current global output, even before factoring in the likelihood of falling production in China.

As Bushveld concedes, "the ability to guarantee supply of vanadium for VRFBs will be key to the success of these systems".

The company is looking at the option of never actually selling its production, but rather leasing it over the life of an energy storage project.

It's an innovative solution to the twin problems of availability and price volatility.

However, it's also an admission that if vanadium is going to play a starring role in the coming green power revolution, it will need to find a way of breaking its circular dependency on the steel industry.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

]]>Brazil launches new mining agency days before Temer steps downhttp://www.mining.com/brazil-opens-new-mining-agency-days-temers-govt-ends/
Wed, 05 Dec 2018 13:43:07 +0000http://www.mining.com/?p=957534Changes to Brazil’s 50-year-old mining regulations also came in effect Wednesday and include measures that make the country’s industry more competitive and sustainable.

]]>Brazil's outgoing President Michel Temer launched Wednesday a new regulatory agency for the mining sector, linked to the Ministry of Mines and Energy, aimed at making the country’s industry more competitive and sustainable.

The National Mining Agency (ANM), which replaces the previous National Department of Mineral Production (DNPM), has been tasked with “promoting the management of the mineral resources of the Federal Government, as well as the regulation and inspection of activities for the use of mineral resources in the country,” according to an executive order signed by Temer in July. The decree, part of broader changes to the country’s regulations, was approved by the Senate last month.

Changes to Brazil’s 50-year-old mining regulations also came in effect Wednesday, including measures that make the country’s industry more competitive and sustainable.

Changes to Brazil’s 50-year-old mining regulations also came in effect Wednesday and include measures to allow for mining titles to be used as guarantees for financing. The modifications are expected to spur investment in sector, while allowing miners to continue exploring for minerals even if production license applications are pending.

The new rules also set stricter environmental regulations and the enforcement of mine closures planning. From now on, mining companies will have the responsibility of recovering areas degraded by extraction activities.

Mining is regulated in Brazil by the Mining Code enacted in 1967 and by its Regulations of 1968. While the code has been amended several times, the regulations had remained untouched until today.

The legal modifications will open up about 20,000 exploration areas where permit applications have stalled or been abandoned to be auctioned off again, which represent about 10% of the pending permits, local paper Estadao reported.

The new agency and legal changes take effect only days before far-right President elect, Jair Bolsonaro, takes office on Jan. 1.

The upcoming leader has criticized the Brazilian government’s environment agencies and said he will strip them of their powers to impose “fines all over the place”.

Bolsonaro has also said he would build a highway through the Amazon rainforest and that wouldn’t add even a centimetre to the indigenous reserves in the area.

Last week, he named Navy admiral Bento Costa Lima Leite de Albuquerque Junior (60) as his Mining and Energy Minister. This appointment marks the eighth member of the armed forces to Bolsonaro's government and the 20th Minister appointed so far.

]]>Trade truce lights fire under mining stockshttp://www.mining.com/trade-truce-lights-fire-mining-stocks/
Tue, 04 Dec 2018 00:09:52 +0000http://www.mining.com/?p=957260Relief that an escalation in the trade war between the US and China has been avoided – at least for now – sparked a huge rally in mining stocks on Monday.

Relief that an escalation in the trade war between the US and China has been avoided – at least for now – sparked a huge rally in mining stocks on Monday.

Gold closed at a one-month high just shy of $1,240 an ounce, iron ore continued to climb from recent lows above $66 a tonne and while the rally in the price of copper had fizzled out by afternoon trading, it did not stop investors from piling into the sector’s big names.

BHP added 4.8% lifting the market valuation of world’s largest mining company by revenue to $122B in New York. Number one and two iron ore miners Vale and Rio Tinto’s gains were more modest at 2.8% and 2.3%.

Shares in world number four miner Glencore were lifted 3% despite the Swiss firm revising down expected earnings at its trading arm after buyers of cobalt from its mines in the Congo reneged on deals amid a fall in the price of the battery raw material.

Among large diversified mining companies Anglo American was the best performer, jumping 6.3% after palladium futures settled a fresh record high of $1,165 an ounce.

Top nickel and palladium producer Norilsk added 2%, lifting the company’s market value to above $30B for the first time since early March.

Canadian copper miner First Quantum Minerals was the day’s top large mining stock surging 11.4%. Fellow Canadian miner Lundin Mining also enjoyed double digit gains while Ivanhoe Mines advancing PGM and copper projects in south and central Africa added 9.7%.

While the mood on mining markets have lifted recently 2018 is likely to be a severe down year for hard commodities.

Of the most traded metals, only palladium is in positive territory so far while zinc and lead is more than 20% cheaper than at the start of the year. Cobalt is down more than 40% from highs hit during the second quarter.

The US imposed an import tariff of 10% on $200B of Chinese goods in September. The rate was scheduled to rise to 25% on January 1. At the G20 meeting over the weekend President Trump and President Xi agreed to a 90-day delay to make time for further negotiations.

]]>What to watch in commodities: Trump-Xi, OPEC, iron, Tesla, cropshttp://www.mining.com/web/watch-commodities-trump-xi-opec-iron-tesla-crops/
Sun, 02 Dec 2018 17:03:03 +0000http://www.mining.com/?post_type=syndicatedcontent&p=956977It’ll be an important week for iron ore, which has been badly beaten up in November.

]]>Attention is fixed on Buenos Aires as Group of 20 leaders meet in Argentina and developments there in the coming hours will shape commodity trading over the next week. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have a dinner date on Saturday to see if they can avert an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. Also on the sidelines, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman are likely to discuss how to coordinate oil policy just days before the cartel’s producers meet in Vienna to discuss a possible supply cut in 2019.

Taken together, agreements, squabbles and comments made at the G-20 have the potential to trigger significant moves in everything from crude oil and copper to soybeans, LNG and gold. In a reflection of just how hard it is to call the result, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said while continued escalation in the U.S.-China trade war is seen as the “most likely” outcome of the Trump-Xi session, a close second is a pause as the two sides agree to keep talking.

While the G-20 is the biggest item on the agenda, it’s not the only one. It’ll be a significant week for iron ore as mining giant Vale SA briefs investors in London and New York on the state of the global market and separately, Singapore Exchange Ltd. starts trade in a new contract for high-grade material. In Europe and the U.S., the future of agriculture is up for discussion. And lastly, there’s an update on what Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. has been up to Down Under.

Hungry for Change

The outcome of Trump’s meal with Xi in Buenos Aires on Saturday has the scope to boost or trash commodities that have been buffeted all year by their trade stand-off. Officials from both sides have been working on the contours of a possible deal that the leaders can announce after the plates have been cleared away and critically, a road map for more talks to follow.

In the lead-up to the meal of the year, Trump has blown hot and cold, both talking tough and threatening to push on with his tariffs-driven strategy, while also opening the door to a deal between the world’s two largest economies. Still, even if a broad-brush agreement does come in Argentina, there’ll be a vast array of very tough details that still need to be fixed.

Saudi’s Tough Choice

OPEC ministers and delegates gathering in Vienna have paused working on draft communiques as they await clarity from the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires. That meeting is likely to shape the oil market in 2019 and affect everything from the war in Yemen to the share price of Exxon Mobil Inc.

The choice facing Saudi Arabia is dramatic: cut oil production and enrage Trump, or keep pumping and risk ultra-low prices blowing up its economy. Following the murder of Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s crown prince and day-to-day ruler, needs Trump’s political protection. The other key player is Vladimir Putin, after Russia and Saudi Arabia spent the past two years working together to manage the oil market.

The Miner Details

It’ll be an important week for iron ore, which has been badly beaten up in November. Brazilian mining giant Vale will meet with investors in New York on Tuesday and in London on Thursday to discuss the company’s expansion plans and its outlook for demand. The world’s largest producer of the raw material used in steelmaking has benefited as Chinese mills boost purchases of higher grade ore that contains less impurities.

Aside from the miner’s take, investors will also track developments in Asia where Singapore Exchange Ltd. will on Monday introduce a much-anticipated futures contract that’ll allow bets on high-grade material — just the kind that Vale supplies. China’s moves to battle pollution have spurred rising demand for top-quality ore over the past two years, widening spreads between grades.

Switched On?

For better or worse, Elon Musk doesn’t do low key. The headline-grabbing entrepreneur famously won a bet with fellow tech billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes that his company could install a 100-megawatt storage facility within 100 days Down Under to help support the South Australia’s blackout-plagued grid. Following that wager win, it’s now time for an update on operations at the plant that was touted then as the world’s biggest lithium-ion battery.

For stories related to Musk’s Tesla and Australia’s power crisis: Musk Wagers Tesla Can Quickly Fix South Australia Power Woes Musk’s Battery Boast Will Be Short-Lived as Rivals Go Bigger Where Cheap Power Matters More Than Risk of Climate Disaster.

While it may be hard for outsiders to grasp quite why Australia — laden with coal, blanketed by sunshine, and blessed with extraordinary troves of gas offshore — can’t manage to keep the lights on, Musk’s offering, owned by French company Neoen SA, helps to highlight the future as new forms of power and technology come to the fore. The briefing comes on Wednesday, and while Musk himself won’t be on hand, executives will provide their latest thoughts.

Feed Me

What could be more important than where our next meal is coming from at a time of trade-war disruption, climate change, new technology and shifting diets? All that, as well as immediate reaction to the outcome from the G-20 meet, will be scrutinized next week at two major conferences. In Brussels on Thursday, Phil Hogan, the European Commissioner for Agriculture and Rural Development, will feature in the opening session of the 2018 EU Agricultural Outlook Conference. The event will examine issues from blockchain to biofuels, with input from a range of commentators, including supermarket operator Carrefour SA and food giant Nestle SA.

Before that in Chicago, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and industry experts including farmers and analysts will convene at DTN’s 2018 Ag Summit. Perdue is expected to discuss prospects for global trade and the economic outlook as it relates to agriculture. With soybeans caught in the crosshairs of the U.S.-China trade war, market watchers will be eager to hear early updates from the G-20 and signs of a deal between the two countries.

Bulls Versus Bears

The outlook is turning positive in the soybean market, with bulls outnumbering bears by the most since July, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Sentiment is shifting on optimism the leaders of the world’s two biggest economies could call a trade truce during their meeting this weekend.

In the gold market, traders are bullish for a third week as dovish comments from the Federal Reserve on the outlook for interest rates bolster the appeal of the non-interest bearing metal. Respondents were also bullish on sugar, while sentiment was mixed for crude oil and natural gas. Terminal subscribers can see the other commodity surveys here.

For the Diary

SATURDAY, DEC. 1

Group of 20 wraps up meetings in Buenos Aires. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping plan to meet over dinner.

]]>The Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines’ latest statistical report reveals that, in the 10th month of the year, the country’s gold output fell by 6.3% when compared to October of 2017. This, despite the fact that Minera Yanacocha, which is the main producer of the yellow metal, grew its output by 8.1%.

Copper production, on the other hand, fell by 3.8% in October when compared to the previous year, silver dropped by 9.1%, zinc by 7.9%, and lead by 8.4%.

On the positive side, the MEM reported that iron ore production grew by 66.8%, despite the fact that output was on the downside following a 17-day strike by Shougang Hierro Perú’s workers demanding higher pay.

Molybdenum was also up by 20.6% in October of 2018, mostly due to positive numbers registered by Compañía Minera Cerro Verde, Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO), and Antamina.

Finally, the ministry informed that tin output rose by 5.4% y-o-y in October thanks to increased production at Minsur’s San Rafael mine in the western department of Puno.

Bento Costa Lima Leite de Albuquerque Junior (60), the current head of Brazilian Navy's nuclear and technology development program, was born in Rio de Janeiro, and has been with the institution since 1973.

The new Minister will be tackling offshore oil licensing rounds and planned energy privatizations in his new job, according to a Twitter post from Bolsonaro’s son, Carlos Bolsonaro.

The government-led transition team is already taking part in talks to free up billions of barrels of offshore oil reserves for development by foreign oil companies.

Some oil industry executives criticized Albuquerque's lack of experience in the sector, the current Mining and Energy Minister, Moreira Franco, welcomed the appointment and described the upcoming minister in a tweet as “very well prepared for the technical and command responsibilities of the sector.”

While Bolsonaro hasn’t yet provided specifics of his view for the mining sector, there are expectations for deregulation of the industry, but some of his past statements have activists up in arms.

While Bolsonaro hasn’t yet provided specifics of his view for the mining sector, there are expectations for deregulation of the industry.

He has said he may withdraw from the Paris climate accord if it means sacrificing sovereignty over the Amazon, an ecosystem with worldwide ecological significance. Asked about the indigenous reserves in the area, he has declared he won’t add even a centimetre to them.

Climate scientists say Bolsonaro’s intention to open the Amazon for greater development could make it impossible for Latin America’s largest nation to meet its reduced emissions targets in the coming years.

Other issues conservationists are worried about include Bolsonaro’s criticism of the country’s environmental agencies for blocking or taking too long to approve mining and energy projects. He has promised to reduce the wait time to license small hydroelectric plants to a maximum three months, rather than the decade it can sometimes take.

The Mines and Energy Ministry was one of the last to be defined. It is not yet known who will lead the Ministry of the Environment.

Together with being the world's top iron ore producers, Brazil hold large reserves of bauxite, manganese and potash. It's also Latin America's No. 1 oil producer.