International Futures Help System

Forward Linkages of Health to Population and Labor Supply

The IFs demographic model captures the mechanical or accounting effects of mortality on population (see the solid paths in the figure below). A key pathway passes from mortality through adult age population to labor supply (including aging-related lags).[1] Similarly, IFs captures the mechanical effect of mortality on fertility through the death of women of childbearing age.

The most important non-mechanical linkage is almost certainly the relationship between child mortality and fertility. IFs forecasts fertility as a relationship with infant mortality, the log of educational level of those aged 15 and older (neither the education of women alone nor the education of those 15-24 work as well), and the percentage use of modern contraception.

[1] IFs also includes income-based formulations for changing the female participation rate.