(092112)

Energy,
Wood, Fossil Fuel, Nuclear, et al.

•
Energy

Conversion of raw
materials into finished goods, transportation, and power for homes and businesses
requires energy. Fossil fuels and nuclear power provide the North with a
majority of the world’s total energy use. The elite, about 23% of the
population, consume 80% of the world’s energy. In poorer regions, fossil
fuel and wood provide the remaining 20% of the world’s heat and power.
Again, using figures for 1989, the US. with only 4.5% of the population,
produces 25% of the total CO2 emissions. China, about 23% of the population,
produces approximately 5% of the world’s emissions. As China’s
economy grows, so do its CO2 emissions, perhaps one day soon to a point
exceeding present US levels.

In a world totally
at peace, a united effort might phase out oil to adopt solar, wind, hydrogen,
fission, and fusion alternatives. Unfortunately, economic and technological
problems thus far prohibit the replacement of carbon fuels. Solar and wind
are still not cost effective. Fission (nuclear) power generates extremely
hazardous radioactive waste—the majority of which still awaits proper
disposal. Fusion awaits a breakthrough discovery and commercial development.
Technology that maximizes carbon fuel efficiency is presently a tool to
buy time, to conserve fuel, and then await future solutions. Further, the
world is not at peace. Any conflict in oil producing regions sends shock
waves of fear and price fluctuations through global markets. For example,
in July of 1991, just before the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the spot-market
price of oil was $19 per barrel. Several days after the invasion the price
increased to $28. The economics of oil depends on more than the total reserves
in the ground. Who sits on top of the oil can easily upset the markets.
In the future, energy use becomes a reflection of the globe’s economic,
environmental, and security issues. Industrial nations are still headed
into a period of extraordinary dependence on foreign oil, most of which
comes from the Middle East, because that is where the major oil reserves
are located.

I think the Administration
and Congress both agree that increasing dependence on (oil) imports is
just not a good thing for us in the long term. Oil imports account for
half of our total balance of payments.' — J. H. Gibbons, Science
Advisor to the President (SXi 190)

NASA
photo -Earth at Night With Lights Shining Bright

According to figures
cited by WorldWatch Institute, Americans sit atop 10 years of oil reserves
while the Middle East holds 110 years of the world’s oil supply. These
figures only reflect oil use based on 1989 consumption rates. As population
slows in the North and grows in the South, the world’s consumption
patterns and total demand change. To summarize this another way, D. G. Howell,
and co-authors, state:

Dreary as the
domestic situation seems, the world oil supply provides a temporary comfort
zone. Reserves in the Middle East plus anticipated discoveries there amount
to 750 billion barrels. Elsewhere in the world are another 650 billion
barrels or so. At the present rate of worldwide consumption of 20 billion
barrels per year, this would suggest a 70-year supply. (It is likely that
consumption will go up as developing countries attain higher standards
of living.) But what will happen—politically, socially, and economically—as
we try to distribute this oil? What will be the pressures as we approach
the final drop of consumption?'

Is free access and
total consumption of all the world’s oil a safe assumption?
This point is rarely discussed. I suspect many secretly fear the cumulative
greenhouse consequences for oil consumption over 70 years. First, the environment
cannot bear the continued CO2 emissions without certain climate change,
so humans must stop using oil and coal. Second, present civilization is
fixed on resources with no immediate, nor economically practical alternative,
so humanity continues to use them. Humans are environmentally damned
if they do, and are economically damned if they don’t. And I await
the knee-jerk response characteristic of dysfunctional societies who wait
to the point of crisis to fix problems. From all appearances, from this
window view, the crisis is clear—it’s already here.

The addiction to
oil can only be fueled by evidence indicating new or increased reserve capacity.
Recent estimates suggest upward adjustments for reserves in the Middle east
and elsewhere—extending the potential for oil use beyond previous estimates.
Thus, the nature of the material beast continues producing and consuming
because the old economic assumptions state that greater market activity
is better. The simplistic approaches, putting off concerns for change
to the future, gain favor where the system is fueled by an incredible dependency.
At any moment, an oil crisis dramatically shifts prices thus tripping a
trap door under the global economy. The North may absorb episodes of this
form of monetary extortion, but the South can hardly afford the extra burden.

Window
Pane Three

Oil
for Tomorrow — A Detailed View

Figure 4:
United States Oil Consumption (Past and Projections for the Future).
The total consumption is the sum of US. domestic production (8)
plus net imports which is represented by the upper-most line (1).
Total domestic production comes from adding natural gas and other
sources (10) to Alaska’s oil (9) plus that of the lower 48
states (total represented by 8). Lines 2, 3, and 4 represent savings
if US. auto manufactures produce autos and trucks with increasingly
greater fuel efficiency. If we increase automobile fuel efficiency,
from 28 mpg to 38 mpg (line 2), or to 50 mpg (line 3), and even
increase truck fuel efficiency (line 4), the US. dependence on future
oil imports may stay comparable to present levels. Lines 5, 6, and
7 represent potential increase in domestic production from alternate
fuel programs not yet in place.

Figure 4 is a technical
examination of US. oil consumption (line 1)—for the past and projected
for the future. Domestic production (line 8) drops slowly because immediate
depletion of limited reserves is offset by imports. Domestic dependence
on imports may be reduced by future production of synthetic fuels from biomass,
coal liquifaction, liquid fuels from natural gas, and by increasing miles
per gallon (mpg) efficiencies of trucks and automobiles (lines 2, 3, and
4). Increasing synthetic fuels, effectively raises domestic production,
and lowers dependence on foreign supply (lines 5, 6, and 7), but only conservation
lowers overall demand (lines 2, 3, and 4). At best, line 4, the US. achieves
a constant demand. This level still leads the world in per capita use and
is inadequate to prepare the US. for the anticipated oil depletion in the
21st century. Figure 4 reflects a status quo approach, it does not
acknowledge potential effects of another oil crisis, nor does it offer a
plan that continually reduces oil use.

I leave you with one
final thought on oil’s timeline. Three hundred million years were
required to produce the pockets of oil located under the US. Consumption,
by comparison, is virtually instantaneous, driven by the spark of human industriousness
within a 200 year time frame. Humanity has tapped a one-time, short-term,
supply. Global change presents several absolutes that I see with certainty.
Running out of oil seems certain—how humanity will respond is uncertain.

This
is just one of many panes in the WindowView. This is a fraction
of the process identified earlier within the section entitled 'Convergence.'
Keep exploring the view, visit our page titled 'Experience
WindowView' to see how global changes are part of a larger holistic
paradigm which is the reason behind assembling this cyber-place.
Putting the picture together helps to envision humanity's direction
along the dimension of time.

A
copy of this text with footnotes and a complete listing of references
used in writing this text can be obtained by downloading the chapters
and reference list for the Creator's
Window. References that appear as ''(SXi #)'' signify the page
number from Sigma Xi's publication related to a 1991 forum on global
change (see reference list for the Creator's Window for a complete
citation of this work).

The importance to global change is in looking at how social, biological, and physical sciences all reveal data and signs for more ominous changes in the near future. This is change in every aspect of human and earthly affairs ... globally. The Window looks further to see change as a backdrop to a biblical timeline. Driving forces for change force us to ask the most important questions about our true origin, who we are, why we are here, and what the Scriptures tell us about the future. Change forces us to look deeper to face choice or crisis. Life is an opportunity to look for the answers.

References from SXi and page number refer to the Sigma Xi Forum Proceedings: Global Change and the Human Prospect: Issues in Population, Science, Technology and Equity, November 1991. The importance of this science society's forum is that the meeting was forward looking and demonstrates how scientists from social, biological, and physical sciences all saw change on the rise. Not just climate change, but change in every aspect of human and earth affairs ... globally.

For a general listing of books, visit the WindowView Book Page for: Science and Scripture .

Step Up To Life

Time spent looking ... through a window on life and choice ... brings the opportunity to see in a new light. The offer for you to Step Up To Life is presented on many of the web pages at WindowView. Without further explanation we offer you the steps here ... knowing that depending on what you have seen or may yet explore in the window ... these steps will be the most important of your life ...