The Penguins have the cap space to offer Letang a contract worth $7
million a season, but thanks to
massive contract extensions for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, more than $34 million is already committed to six players in 2014-15, and
adding Letang's big ticket would put them in a cap squeeze.

If
the Penguins do decide to trade Letang, there will be plenty of
suitors, despite the high cost to acquire the Norris Trophy finalist.
More concerning, however, is Letang's desire to be paid like an elite
defencemen. Sure, he's scored 190 points over the last five years, tied
for 11th among defencemen, but are there enough holes in his defensive
game to cause teams to look elsewhere for defensive help?

Is Letang worth $7 million or more over 5-8 years, or is this a case of buyer beware?
First
we must consider the type of competition Letang plays against, and how
well he has fared. Below is a table of Letang's puck possession stats
since breaking into the league in 2007-08.

Year

OZ%

Quality of Comp.

Corsi Rel.

Corsi%

SAon/60

SAoff/60

2007-08

51.1

-0.256

1.7

46.0

29.2

28.6

2008-09

52.7

0.507

7.1

50.8

26.2

27.7

2009-10

55.4

0.573

12.1

55.2

26.3

25.0

2010-11

53.7

0.765

9.3

55.2

25.4

26.3

2011-12

52.2

0.583

6.4

54.3

26.4

25.2

2012-13

48.3

0.696

16.2

54%

26.4

27.3

OZ% = Percentage of shifts starting in the offensive zoneQuality of Comp. = How good are the players Letang plays against as measured by Corsi Rel.Corsi Rel.
= Letang's Corsi relative to his teammates (the Penguins' shot
differential when Letang is on the ice minus their shot differential
when he is off the ice)Corsi% = The percentage of shot attempts for the Penguins when Letang is on the iceSAon/60 = Shots against per 60 minutes when Letang is on the iceSAoff/60 = Shots against per 60 minutes when Letang is off the ice

Apart
from Letang's first season in the league, when the Penguins smartly
gave him sheltered minutes against weak competition, Letang has
primarily been matched up against top-six forwards (Quality of
Competition of 0.5 and above generally reflects top-six forwards). And
while he hasn't been used as the team's primary shutdown defender (that
duty has gone to Brooks Orpik, and in 2012-13, Paul Martin as well),
Letang has seen an increasing amount of shifts starting in the defensive
zone. Last year, specifically, Dan Bylsma deployed Letang in a similar
manner as Josh Gorges, Rob Scuderi, and Luke
Schenn—three defencemen considered defence-first players.

Letang
has crushed those minutes as well, being the team's best puck
possession defender. He has had a positive Corsi rel. in every year with
the Pens, indicating that the Penguins outshoot their opponent at even strength when
Letang is on the ice more so than they do when Letang is off the ice.
Looked at another way, over the last five years the Penguins have
controlled 54% of all shot attempts at even strength when Letang is on the ice. That's
tied for 12th best in the league for defencemen over that period of time
with Erik Karlsson and Alex Pietrangelo, and just below Brent Seabrook.

Letang
doesn't boost the Penguins' shot differential just because he is
offensively gifted either. Over the last five years Letang has helped
limit the opposition to 26.1 shots against per 60 minutes when he is on
the ice, while the Penguins allow slightly more when he is off the ice
(26.3). The league average for shots against per 60 minutes is 28.5.

In
comparison, Rob Scuderi, one of the league's more highly respected defensive defencemen, was able to limit a similar amount of shots as
Letang this season (26.5 per 60 minutes). The big difference between the two
defencemen is that Scuderi doesn't have the transitional game that
Letang possess, so he wasn't able to move the puck out of the zone as effectively
(25.9 shots for/60 compared to Letang's 29.3 mark).

That transitional game has earned praise from Letang's teammates and helps pace their prolific offense, which has the added benefit of keeping the puck out of the defensive zone.

“He’s
known for his offensive ability, but he’s so good defensively. It was
tough playing without him for that long stretch when he was out with the
concussion," James Neal told Sportsnet last year.
"The way he defends guys might be unnoticed, and the way he passes the
puck helps us out as forwards."

“He takes the puck out of
the zone very quickly, often by himself," Marc-Andre Fleury added. "He’s quick on offence but works hard to get back and help
out in our zone."

Letang manages the puck as effectively
as some of the game's top defencemen as well. He gave the puck away 34
times this year, as much as Zdeno Chara, and less than defensive
stalwarts like Shea Weber, Drew Doughty, and Brent Seabrook.

These
numbers show that despite being considered an offensively-gifted,
puck-moving defenceman, Letang is still solid defensively.

There
is more than one way to play defence. Paul Coffey was a great
defenceman because he could skate the puck out of trouble, whereas Scott
Stevens was great because he was a punishing hitter who dominated
physically. Both Hall of Fame defencemen, two wildly different styles of
play. Both effective.

But being paid north of $7 million a
season is a lot of money, especially for someone who isn't tasked with
the hardest defensive assignments. Most of the league's big money
defencemen are given shutdown responsibility. There are 11 defencemen
making over $6 million a season right now, and 7 play a
shutdown role for their team (Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Drew Doughty,
Zdeno Chara, Jay Bouwmeester, Dion Phaneuf, and Kimmo Timonen). Only
Brian Campbell, Erik Karlsson, Mike Green, and Dan Boyle play against
second line competition (although Boyle was used in a shutdown role last
season).

Right now Letang falls into the second camp, and
although he has proved more than capable of dominating those minutes,
he might be given more difficult assignments for a team that doesn't
have someone like Brooks Orpik to take the heavy defensive duties.

It isn't unheard of for someone with Letang's skill set to be used in a shutdown role; Duncan Keith has been primarily used as the Blackhawks' shutdown defender and he won a Norris Trophy. The only issue is Letang is completely untested in that role. Aside from Dion Phaneuf, most of the big money defencemen playing in shutdown roles had experience, and success, in that role before signing their major deals.

Over
his career Letang has been a very good defenceman, both offensively and defensively. Good enough that
he's put himself in a position to earn a major pay day. It just may not come from the Penguins.

2 comments:

It's a valid question, although I think Letang can be legitimately considered one of the reasons why the Penguins have a good offense, more so than Letang looks good because the Penguins' offense is so good.