The
actual winter 2014/15 is up to now no winter in Northern Europa (Fig. 1-2). Can anthropogene activities
in the North Sea, Baltic and coastal seas be made partly responsible? Presumably
yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas
have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing
through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters. In the North
Sea and Baltic there are continuously ten thousand and more motor ships at sea.
Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore
rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance
against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. (Fig. 3-8) The result is like stirring hot soup. Warm water will
come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The
air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not
to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research or agencies allowing
offshore structures who do not consider such evaluations.

Strong warming during winter season.

The situation at the beginning of the evaluation is obvious.
In Europe the mean average temperature during the last century has risen by 0.9°C.
In the last 30 years the tendency of warming per decade with about 0.41°C was
significantly higher than the global mean of +0.17°C. Warming in central and
northern Europe was very strong and winter temperatures rose faster than summer
temperatures (Ref.).This is also true for water
temperatures in the North Sea which rose faster than in other oceans according
to publications from the Alfred Wegner Institute 2012. In the year 2014 the
highest annual average of 11.4°C was the highest ever measured and was 1.5°C higher
than a long time mean value as the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency in Germany published in February 2015 („Schiff & Hafen”,
2015, P. 56).

The same is reported about the Baltic. It warmed by
around 0.03°C per decade stronger than other sea areas. In the course of the 20th
century the Baltic warmed by approximately 0.85°C (Ref.). This had a direct influence on air temperatures, as DER SPIEGEL reported several years ago: „….the temperature in the
Baltic area increased by one tenth of a degree, more than the global average ….
The warming of the air in the northern Baltic area by 1°C was higher than in
the southern region with 0.7°C.“.The Helsinki Commission (HELCM) confirmed in 2013 that “On average since the
late 19th century the increase in annual average surface air
temperature has been 0.11˚C per decade in the northern Baltic and 0.08˚C in the
southern Baltic compared to the global average of 0.05˚C per decade.”The difference between North and South can be explained by the fact that
the southern Baltic is shallower thanthe
eastern Baltic. That means there is less volume of water available for storing
heat (summer) and releasing it (winter). (Fig. 9-13) The over proportional warming of water and air is
self-evident. To link this to ‚global
warming‘ cannot be convincing. How can ‚global warming‘ lead to specific higher
warming in these regional seas? Rather, it should be asked; have shipping and
offshore activities contributed to global warming?

More heat input – More heat output.

An example for the importance of the available water
volume is shown in the Baltic. The
increase of mean water temperature near Gotland since 1993 was almost 6°C and around
Bornholm it was about 8°C (Ref.). The mean water depth of the Baltic is 52m (Nord Sea 94m) and is less in
the south than in the eastern Baltic. The explanation of this significant
difference of 2°C can be a different amount of ship traffic. According to HELCOM a permanent number of 2000 large (sizable) ships sail
the Baltic at any time. This implies that this armada agitates the surface
layer down to 10m depth and deeper in the entire Baltic within two weeks. In the
southern Baltic more because of higher ships traffic thus explaining the
greater rise in temperature. That this aspect plays an important role can be
explained by the fact that comparable values in both regions, Gotland and
Bornholm, were only around 4°C.

Since
mankind, during the course of a year, agitates the water column of North Sea
and Baltic by stirring, more warmth is taken to deeper water in the summer
season and rises to the surface from lower layers in the winter period, where
heat is exchanged with the air until sea icing is observed. This is a process
that can be seen from the beginning of September until the end of March.This corresponding initial
situation is also true in the North Sea.
It has about twice the volume and stores a great amount of warm water from the
North-Atlantic with much higher salinity as in the Baltic. Therefore sea icing
in the North Sea is much less and seldom observed.

Small and large weather situation on February 22,
2015, influence in the Chicago area?

Europe
is not the world. However Western Europe is under the influence of the weather
belt from West to East. Atlantic low pressure areas move east (Fig.17), unless
cold continental high pressure air blocks them. These are the winters that
Europe talks about. This succeeds very well when the North Sea and Baltic do
not assist the Atlantic weather because they cannot release enough heat or are
hindered by sea icing. In this winter they are perfect helpers and keep the
cold from Siberia at a safe distance. (Fig. 14-16).But the more Atlantic weather governs
the situation beyond the Ural the further winter Polar and Siberian Cold will
move east. This can be felt in Alaska, Canada and perhaps in the U.S.A. These
last days it has been extremely cold and in the coming weeks (02/22 to 03/01,
2015) deviations from the mean can be 20°C lower (Fig.18-19).It is possible that the warm North
Sea and Baltic waters make a contribution to the extreme cold in the U.S.A. Even
a minor contribution should not be underestimated, and the mechanism
understood.

Summary:

The
facts are conclusive. “Global Climate Change” cannot cause a special rise in
temperatures in Northern Europe, neither in the North Sea nor the Baltic or
beyond. Any use of the oceans by mankind has an influence on thermo-haline
structures within the water column from a few cm to 10m and more. Noticeable
warmer winters in Europe are the logical consequence.