Unbe-Kiev-able: Cries of ‘Russian invasion’ not backed by evidence

Ukrainian soldiers stand near a car belonging to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE) monitoring mission (Reuters/Sergei Karpukhin) / Reuters

Following Kiev’s repeated claims of Russian “invasion”, without backing them up with evidence, the West has stopped giving the Ukrainian government unconditional support, Charles Shoebridge, a security analyst, told RT.

NATO accused Moscow of sending troops to eastern Ukraine largely
basing its allegations on images of unmarked military trucks.
Also the bloc referred to an earlier OSCE report, which claims
that some personnel vehicles carrying no insignia were spotted in
eastern Ukraine. The group reported that it was impossible to
determine their identity and where they came from. The Russian
side demanded proof of NATO’s “invasion” allegation, which so far
has not materialized.

RT:We've seen the videos showing unmarked
vehicles on the move. How can footage like this be presented as
evidence?

Charles Shoebridge: The public is confused, I
suspect. But actually in many cases the public have long learned
not to trust one side or the other. Because all too often these
claims and counterclaims are proved either to be false or “maybe
true,” but there is no evidence to back it up. As an objective
observer you have to look at the Ukraine situation and say that
it is possible that Russia has sent forces into Ukraine and may
have good reasons for doing so. It is just that and we need to
deal with hard facts and hard evidence. On each occasion that the
Ukraine government and in most cases NATO have claimed specific
examples, as they have done the last couple of days, of what the
Ukrainian government calls “invasion”. Hard evidence is hard to
come by even when they have been openly challenged.

RT:So where do you think these video
materials, which the OSCE (Organization for Security and
Co-operation in Europe) presented, came from?

CS: In some cases there could be captured
weapons. There could be weapons that have been handed over by
armed forces in Ukraine as part of defector’s movements. There
could be what is alleged to be the case that they moved over into
Ukraine. It may be even that this footage in some cases isn’t
filmed in Ukraine at all, or may be out-of-date. There are number
of possible scenarios for this. We have to look at what the OSCE
is saying.

We have to look at what the OSCE is saying…Ukraine claimed five
days ago that 32 tanks had crossed into Ukraine from Russia .They
didn’t say they “were in Ukraine,” they specifically said “they
crossed.” The OSCE subsequently saw 4 or 5 tanks along with some
other vehicles which were unarmed. Again it appears that there
was no footage of that. The OSCE themselves made it clear that it
was a fleeting glimpse, they didn’t have time to investigate it
properly.

RT:Both NATO and the OSCE are saying they
don't have a full understanding of the situation. So why put up
unverified information at all?

CS: On the one hand, the OSCE is making efforts
and everybody can go to the OSCE website. The special monitoring
mission in Ukraine tweets its reports on a daily basis and people
can read those reports for themselves and often they don’t chime
with what it is being claimed by either side in Ukraine. But you
have to remember, although they have quite a substantial presence
in Ukraine, the OSCE is still relatively speaking thin on the
ground. Observers can only be at a certain places at a certain
time….Things can happen at different times and they will not be
able to see those things.But it is really the case that the
Ukrainian government has got a problem here, and it is a problem
of credibility. Even now, were it to make true claims, and
without evidence one can’t say whether it is true or not true. In
the past they have made too many forced claims. They’ve
effectively “cried wolf”. Now, for example, the US government,
which in the early stages of this Ukraine crisis would inevitably
come in and repeat what the Ukraine government had said, are now
very careful with their words and don’t give unreserved backing
to these Ukraine government claims. If the Ukrainian government
is making these claims then they should be in a position…to be
able to back them up with some kind of evidence.

RT:The media is also quick to jump on these
allegations. How accurate do you think the coverage has been so
far?

CS: I think it has been a case for some time
that the public, generally speaking in the West, isn’t taking a
huge amount of interest in what is going on Ukraine. They were
initially, but then there have been claims and counterclaims.
Increasingly the public in the West, those that want to be
informed about such issues as Ukraine, are looking beyond the
traditional mainstream media such as BBC, CNN, and the press such
as The Times and so on. These organizations enviably seek to
vilify Russia - they have done this for decades and especially
since the Ukraine crisis erupted. Because of the resources
issues, Twitter, the media being online generally…people are able
to get alternative views. I think that the Western mainstream
media and Western governments will seek to portray Russia as a
“bad guy” in this situation and the Ukrainian government as a
“good guy”. Nonetheless, reports to counter that narrative are
coming to the attention of the British and other Western publics
through alternative media.

RT:Is the Western military playing on the
fears of the public? They even raised the specter of nuclear
capable units being deployed.

CS: No. On the one hand, it is in the West’s
interest to vilify Russia in this case. It is in their interest
to support the Ukrainian government in its claims that it is
being invaded by Russia, because it is a handy explanation for
why the Ukrainian military is not making the advances that one
would expect it wouldagainst comparatively lightly-armed rebels
rather than what they say Russia supplied them with. But it
should also be noted that even the West’s governments have long
since stopped giving unconditional support to the Kiev
government’s statements about repeated invasions from Russian
forces, simply because either they have been categorically proven
untrue, or there has been a lack of evidence to support them.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.