Wow, I'm glad I'm not a betting woman... All this gambling talk has got my head going in circles. I might start spitting pea soup.

I'll just stick to slots. Anyone have any probability stats on those?

Yes, Somewhat...
Slot machines are not based on probability of winning, they are based on return percentages.
The return percentage is how much of your money the machine return on average. The state of Nevada has a mandated payout minimum of 75%. Most casinos in Las Vegas have a return of 92%. Some casinos will even advertise the payouts!

The return percentage can differ from machine to machine and is based over the life of the machine.

Yes, Somewhat...
Slot machines are not based on probability of winning, they are based on return percentages.
The return percentage is how much of your money the machine return on average. The state of Nevada has a mandated payout minimum of 75%. Most casinos in Las Vegas have a return of 92%. Some casinos will even advertise the payouts!

The return percentage can differ from machine to machine and is based over the life of the machine.

DISCLAIMER: I'll admit when it comes to statistics and math I'm terribly stupid. I know no knowledge of statistics and probability! I haven't taken a class on it yet and when I do, I'll probably just squeak by with a C-. So if/when I say something stupid, I know I am. I'm just feeling my way through this. Don't kill me.

Alright so onwards to my question.. So basically I have a much better chance of receiving a payout at a Vegas machine compared to a machine elsewhere?

Alright so onwards to my question.. So basically I have a much better chance of receiving a payout at a Vegas machine compared to a machine elsewhere?

Does the probability of receiving a jackpot payout vary as well?

Not necessarily, Casinos control the payouts. They will increase the payout range to the low to mid 90's to give the impression that the machines are hot.
I'm sure atlantic City and other places have similar payouts compared to vegas.

as far as the probability of hitting the jackpot, It depends on the machine and and how many lines, reels and icons per reel.

Example From Going To Vegas:
Lets take a simplified example of a three-reel machine. If a machine has 10 symbols on each reel, and there are two "blank" positions between each symbol, that's 30 positions on each reel. A three-reel machine gives 303 or 27,000 possible results that you could get when you pull the handle or press the "Spin" button. A fair number of these possible results will give smaller, partial payouts, but there's only a 1 in 27,000 chance that the combination of numbers that represents the machine's jackpot will be generated. Because the random numbers are generated so frequently and so rapidly, the combination of numbers that correspond to this 1 in 27,000 jackpot position of the reels could be generated quite frequently (relatively speaking). It's the probability that you will pull the handle or hit the "Spin" button at the precise moment that they are generated is what is very low.

Alright so onwards to my question.. So basically I have a much better chance of receiving a payout at a Vegas machine compared to a machine elsewhere?

Does the probability of receiving a jackpot payout vary as well?

Hey, there's never anything wrong with not knowing about something, acknowledging it, and yearning to learn more. That's great. What I've got a beef with is saying you know all about it, yet assert something completely contradictory to mathematic principles that are generally accepted as law.

On to the answer, it's not necessarily that you'll receive "a payout." It's that you'll get more of your money back.

A machine paying on average 92% payout means that for every dollar you play, you are likely to get 92 cents back. That may come in the form of winning a dollar every four or five times you play that quarter, or it may come in the form of dealing with a major cold streak until you hit a major jackpot, or somewhere in between. Now, you should note, that if you play a machine long enough, you'll get real close to that advertised payout of 92 cents per dollar played. But most people don't play that long. So what ends up happening is you catch the cold streak before the big payout, run out of money, and finish up your day as a loser. Or perhaps you come into the machine after it's had a big cold streak, and you happen to catch a big payoff.

So the payback % isn't necessarily about how often you'll win. It's about how much the casino's machines pay out on average.

Also, I definitely have to say that just because a machine has been cold for a while doesn't mean it's inevitably due for a big payoff. They program some machines to be big losers, and others (generally near entries and doors) to be bigger winners. So there's no system you can apply to it (though people will try). That's why they're such moneymakers for the casinos. So when you add up all the losing machines in the place with all the winning machines in the place, it comes out to a 92% payoff percentage. But there's no way to tell which are the winning machines and which aren't. It's just luck, that's why they call it gambling!

As long as you head to the casino with the expectation that you're going to lose some money, and you're comfortable with losing a certain amount, you'll be sure to have a good time. The morons who go in with the intention of making money are the ones you see pulling their hair out and later lying in the gutter while drinking an MD 20/20.

And piggybacking off of Jamf's last post, it's not that casino's "program" certain machines to be winners and losers. Certain machines have different configurations that lead to certain payouts. Some are configured to pay you back at like 97.5%, others are configured at like 90%, and some still at a crappy 80%. And it's really tough to tell which machines are which. So casinos generally put the 97.5% machines near their entrances, because all that "ding ding ding" near the doors tends to draw people in.

So it's not about the casinos playing funny business and monkeying with the machines to pay you whatever they want, it's simply about them owning a mix of good paying machines and bad paying machines, placing them throughout their casino in strategic positions based on studies of human behavior in order to achieve the overall % payout they're looking for.

After all, a 92% payout means they earn eight cents per dollar played. That's how they roll.

The reason jsarno won't fully discuss his system publicly is because he's not confident enough in it himself to go out and make a living by using it.

Simple logic:

Per jsarno, the system works over the long haul. You may lose battles, but you'll win wars.

Therefore, over the long haul, there is no risk. You will win in the long term.

So if there's no risk, why not quit the job you were complaining about a few months ago when considering moving to Denver, and just use your system in Vegas to get extraordinarily rich, and retire to do whatever floats your boat?

There's a reason people spend the time writing a book about these things. It's easier to dupe uneducated morons into believing in gambling systems than it is to get one to actually work, in the long haul, by yourself.

In my opinion, writing a book on the matter, trying to convince people it works, is unethical (unless you really are dumb enough to ignore the laws of statistics and actually buy into it, but given that you have an MBA you have been through stat classes, so either you flunked that class or you're just flat out unethical). That's why I'm so critical of you. What you're doing with the book is flat out wrong.

Now you can lock this thread mods cause I am about to do what I usually don't.

Schneed ...you are bar none the biggest asshole on this site. The reason people don't like you here is cause you talk soooo much shit when you don't know what you're talking about. Is it a little penis syndrome...probably.
I have explained over and over to you that you CAN NOT be rich with this system of make a living off it cause it's not a "break the bank" system. I even went so far as to tell you in the past that if you played every day for a year using my system that you would only win around 60k. Yet you ignore everything I say? It's for fun and small winnings you piece of shit. I even gave you the bare basics and asked you to try it for free, and you didn't. Why? Cause you'd rather be prick that points his pussy little finger at others and points out flaws. Well good for you Schneed, you must be a really big man sitting there not trying a thing and "guessing" that it wouldn't work because of your so called education. You are the most narrow minded individual I have ever had the displeasure of knowing...internet or not. You are the typical fart sniffer.
It has nothing to do with you being critical, if it was, you would have stopped commenting on me a LONG TIME ago...so everyone should ask themselves, "why is schneed still going, when jsarno chose to stop and discuss things via PM?" Cause Schneed doesn't know how to handle himself with dignity and class, and he has his own little world that he lives in that exists only in his head. To put down others makes Schneed feel better cause he likely has a dead end job and a failed marriage or relationship (quite possibly the best relationship he has is with his right hand), and of COURSE none of it was his fault. His life sucks, and it's everyone else's fault...right schneed? Why else would you LIVE for going on a website and ignoring everything that people tell you and then point out over and over and over and over and over and over what you think, and don't even display it as opinion, but fact? We heard you the first time you egomaniacal putz. Why do you think no one wanted you at the game last year schneed? It's not cause you're a "hell-u-va" guy! Now do us all a favor, and for one ****ing time in your life, shut your damn pie hole. Be a credit to this site, not a damn self imposed judge, jury, and executioner. The fact that there was a joke here about how there would only be 10 people on this site if you were a mod speaks VOLUMES about your character.

I want to publicly apologize to everyone here for this post, and if mods see fit to ban me for a little while, I will accept with no fuss. My comments are uncalled for, for everyone to see anyway. I can just no longer take schneed's B.S. I have sat back and watched him be rude to person after person after person with little to no consequences, and I am tired of him berading people over and over again. It's enough...someone needed to say it. This site has gotten me through a lot of rough times, and I feel that a lot of you are like family, I enjoy coming to this site. But I usually have to scroll past a schneed post as it belittles someone, or it is just a "retarded thread" comment. I have had enough, and I could be silent about it no longer. I feel I lost quite a few IQ points just writing this post, but I feel it needed to be said. Again, I apologize to EVERYONE, EXCEPT Schneed. The rest of you didn't need to see this.

Regardless, while I-among several other people here-simply don't see how your system can possibly work considering the laws of probability and statiscs, if you believe it works more power to you. And you're right there is no need to continue berating each other over it.

__________________You're So Vain...You Probably Think This Sig Is About You

Okay, I finally figured out how to tie the original thread topic into the current one...

By switching the thread title from Loose Change to Choose Lange. Who the hell is Lange you might ask? Kenneth Lange to be exact. Simply one of the smartest mathematicians specializing in statistical probability and numerical analysis.

I don't believe I have been this much entertained since the thread about question #3! I, of course, can't comment on everything that has been discussed, so this my abbreviated answer. Forgive me if I'm leaving anything out.

Conspiracy theories will cause you to lose any sense joy in life. I'm quite active with politics and government, but my life goes far beyond the things I can't directly control. 9/11 was a horrible day and I will honor those who lost their lives that day. But you know, that was almost seven years ago. Let's worry about what we have in the present.

I can't really add much with the gambling. I've never went to a casino before, and have never bought a lottery ticket in my life. The way I see it, I feel blessed to have the money I have. If I was going to basically give it all way, I'd give it to a local charity or church. But heck, if you like to gamble, that's cool. I usually wind up blowing my money on computer and stereo equipment..lol! I guess maybe I'm one of those guys that Rings used to beat up on in high school (hahaha not really. Never lost a fight in school! ;-0)

Okay, I finally figured out how to tie the original thread topic into the current one...

By switching the thread title from Loose Change to Choose Lange. Who the hell is Lange you might ask? Kenneth Lange to be exact. Simply one of the smartest mathematicians specializing in statistical probability and numerical analysis.

{sigh} I love the offseason...

LOL...wait, I thought Ken Lange was the guy who played Isaac on The Love Boat??

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