Tasmanian Labor in crisis as Thorp set to lose seat

The Tasmanian Labor Government is in crisis as it prepares to concede defeat in an Upper House seat held by the embattled Children's Minister.

On the two candidate preferred count, Independent Liberal candidate Tony Mulder has polled 53 per cent of the vote, ahead of Lin Thorp on 47 per cent.

Ms Thorp has been under pressure over her handling of the scandal involving a 12-year-old girl sold for sex, as well as possible cuts to the police budget.

Labor State Secretary John Dowling says Mr Mulder received 80 per cent of the preferences from former children's commissioner, Paul Mason.

From that distribution the most likely result is that Tony Mulder will win the seat of Rumney.

It is a big blow to Labor and Ms Thorp who has held the seat for 12 years.

Labor State Secretary John Dowling says it is almost certain Mr Mulder will win.

He says it is up to her to concede defeat and she is not upset at the prospect of losing her seat.

"I've spoken to Lin on a number of occasions. Lin is very philosophical, she's certainly not upset or miserable by any stretch of the imagination.

"She's very philosophical and she respects the wishes of her community," he said.

Mr Mulder would not claim victory but says it is a reasonable assumption.

"Yes quietly confident, it's looking good."

Only 500 postal votes remain to be counted and the electoral commission will resume the count this morning.

Premier Lara Giddings has refused to comment on a possible cabinet reshuffle if Ms Thorp loses.

Ms Giddings admits it is not looking good for Labor.

"Ultimately we have to wait until the result comes in, we may yet be surprised, she has clung on in the past but it's not looking that positive," she said.

Ms Thorp is yet to speak about the prospect of losing her seat.

She is expected to hold a media conference later today.

Independent MLC, Mike Gaffney, says he would consider a ministry if he was approached.

"I've been asked the question before and my response is the same as it was then I think it's important for any member of parliament, if they're asked to take on extra roles and responsibilities which involve being part of the cabinet and ministership, then you would say yes," he said.

Clear message

The Opposition says voters have sent the State Government a clear message.

In Launceston, Liberal candidate Sam McQuestin won the primary vote but lost to Independent Rosemary Armitage after preferences.

Labor looks likely to retain the southern seat of Derwent, vacated by former Treasurer Michael Aird, with Craig Farrell holding a solid lead.

Opposition Leader Will Hodgman says Labor's vote has plunged in all three electorates.

"They're sick of a government that's focussed on itself, that's not spending its time and effort on the important issues; jobs, our economy, keeping the cost of living down," he said.

"In each election there was a negative result for the government, significant swings against the government."

Mr Farrell, who is the Derwent Valley Deputy Mayor, says he is cautiously optimistic.

"I've been campaigning hard for a long time now and it's certainly something I'm really keen to be, the Member for Derwent, but you're never really comfortable until the numbers are in and it's all crossed off and finished," he said.