Dryness remains in the Greater Horn of Africa, and early season dryness is observed in southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

Delayed seasonal rainfall followed by modest precipitation has increased dryness in Ethiopia, the Jubba and Shabelle River basins of Somalia, and Kenya.

Poorly distributed precipitation in the last two months coupled with high daytime temperatures has resulted in abnormal early season dryness across southern Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho.

Since November, rainfall has been below-average in South Africa. Significant moisture deficits have strengthened and expanded into several parts of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, Namibia, and southern Angola.

Increased seasonal rainfall was recorded in Somalia and northeastern Kenya, helping to mitigate early-season moisture deficits, although dryness remains. Average to above-average rainfall forecast in mid- November is expected to continue to provide relief to the region.

Heavy rainfall continues to sustain the risk for flooding in southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania.

Moisture deficits have grown in eastern Ethiopia, southern and central Somalia, and northeastern Kenya due to poor rainfall since late September. Over central and southern Somalia, a dry weather pattern is forecast, which could worsen conditions on the ground.

Below-average rainfall since late February have resulted in moderate to locally strong moisture deficits, which have already negatively impacted agricultural and pastoral activities in many parts of southern South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and northern Tanzania.

Below-average and erratic rainfall since December has resulted in strong moisture deficits and degraded ground conditions. However, above-average rainfall since March has helped to alleviate seasonal dryness.

Despite an increase in moisture following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Enawo during early March, long- term moisture deficits remain due to very poor rains earlier in the season throughout central and eastern Madagascar.

Below-average and erratic rainfall since December has resulted in strong moisture deficits and degraded ground conditions across parts of northeastern Mozambique.

Despite a robust increase in rainfall following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Enawo during early March, considerable long-term moisture deficits remain due to well below-average rains earlier in the season throughout northern Madagascar.

Below-average and erratic rainfall since December has resulted in strong moisture deficits and degraded ground conditions across parts of northeastern Mozambique.

Despite a robust increase in rainfall following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Enawo during early March, considerable long-term moisture deficits remain due to well below-average rains earlier in the season throughout northern Madagascar.

Below-average and erratic rainfall since December has resulted in strong moisture deficits and low soil moisture across parts of northeastern Mozambique.

Despite a robust increase in rainfall following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Enawo during early March, considerable long-term moisture deficits remain due to well below-average rainfall earlier in the season throughout the northern Madagascar.

Since late December, enhanced seasonal rainfall has resulted in large moisture surpluses and several floods. The risk of additional flooding remains high throughout Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, and southwestern Tanzania.

Below-average and erratic rainfall since December has resulted in strong moisture deficits, low soil moisture, and poor crop prospects across parts of northeastern Mozambique.