SEC football analysts have Florida trending up

Florida coach Dan Mullen meets the media earlier this month during day two of SEC Media Days in the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta. [Gary Cosby Jr./GateHouse Media Services]

Year in and year out, the coaching carousel seems to pick up speed, and the Southeastern Conference in 2018 is emblematic of said trend.

Florida coach Dan Mullen is one of five SEC coaches entering their first year at a new program, and the rate of turnover shows no sign of slowing down.

There are those who believe the transition to a new head coach can spark a player’s growth and development, while many on the other side of the fence are convinced consistency among coaches and coordinators is necessary for a program’s sustained development.

Greg McElroy, a former University of Alabama quarterback and now SEC Network analyst, tends to side with the former.

“I don’t think (a coaching change is) huge. The coaching roster in the league today is better than it was a year ago. I don’t think anyone can deny that. That’s a really good thing for the league,” McElroy told The Sun. “I don’t think it hurts development. As someone who experienced a coaching change, everything happens for a reason.”

McElroy said the turnover can often unleash a player’s potential, because the incoming coach strives to leave a strong impression in the first year at a program.

“If anything it helps development, because you’re trying to prove yourself to the new guy. ‘You didn’t recruit me, but I’m going to get you to like me,’ right? I’m optimistic and hopeful that’s what happens in the league,” McElroy said. “When we look three or four years down the road and we can say ‘Man, those five hires that happened before the 2018 season, those were five great hires,’ and the stability and the competition in the league has never been better. I really hope that’s the case when we look at this in 2021, 2022.”

While he can’t speak for each program’s hire, CBS Sports’ Barrett Sallee believes Mullen will do what two previous Nick Saban assistants couldn’t in Gainesville: have a sustained period of success at Florida.

“He’s been in the SEC. That’s it. Will Muschamp and Dan Mullen now kind of have the same idea of what they want to do. Dan’s just been in the SEC; he’s not a first-time head coach, he’s not a young head coach. He just gets it now after what he did at Mississippi State,” Sallee said. “I think that brings a little more stability, I think it speeds up the time frame a little bit too because Florida knows ‘Hey, you’ve done this before, now do it again.’ But I think that’s all it is: I think it’s just Mullen understanding what he wants to do, how football is played these days, where it’s going. And really I think that’s the only difference between those two.”

Sallee said Muschamp has grown into one of the top coaches in the conference after struggling with adapting to the ongoing evolution of the game while at Florida. While the jury is still out on whether Jim McElwain can resurrect his head coaching career, Sallee believes Muschamp has learned from an up-and-down stint at UF.

“I think Muschamp, when he got that job, didn’t recognize what football was going to be. Maybe to a fault, he was a little stubborn. He said ‘Look, I’m going to do it my way’ and refused to have the foresight to figure out exactly what was coming,” Sallee said. “Just in general his philosophy, it really hamstrung him in terms of building that program to where Florida wanted to be. Will Muschamp was the hottest name in college football at that time, the hottest. And because of the decision he made, that star fizzled out and he couldn’t recover. He made the right decisions at Florida in year four, but he just didn’t have the personnel to run them. I think that’s the problem with him, he just made one bad decision when he got that job from a philosophical standpoint and it haunted him throughout the course of his career, and for Florida, you don’t have that much time.”

Muschamp was close enough to turning things around, Sallee says, that he believes the current South Carolina head coach would have soon turned UF back into a perennial power if awarded a longer leash.

“I think he would have won the SEC East had he stayed at Florida if he had been given the right amount of time, but it’s Florida,” Sallee said. “The pressure is there, it’s there for a good reason, so he didn’t get the job done.”

Up next

Thursday: UF football media day

Friday: First day of practice

Aug. 19: Fan Day at the Indoor Practice Facility from 2-4 p.m. Admission is free.

52 COMMENTS

Will Muschamp coached way too conservative, p would not have turned Florida around. I believed that as well but when you fail to recruit an offense, you can’t score points. Muschamp coached to protect the defense, failed to recruit offense, stuck by assistants that couldn’t develop players, and made bad personnel decisions. None of these elements will help you get a tradition rich program back to the top. South Carolina had talent when he arrived and certainly he has been humbled but it took being fired from Florida to get him off his stubborn stance. If he wasn’t fired, he would still be the same and Florida would be no better.

Yeah lets not forget it was Muschamp who decided to name Harris the starter over Grier in ’14. He may be having a little more success at South Carolina relative to the expectations, but he’s still having the same issues he had here, they just aren’t as magnified at a program like that. His offense was still ranked in the triple digits last season, not much higher than the Gators even though he had talent. He’s also still recruiting very defensive heavy classes. That just goes to show you when you’re at a program where the expectations aren’t quite as high, you come across like you’re doing a much better job. I can tell you right now with the preseason expectations being a little higher than usual, if he puts up another 8-9 win season with a triple digit offense, he’s going to be feeling some heat for sure.

All you say is spot on…for this is not a learn on the job program. I always say he was trying to be Bama Jr., and should know historically that our best teams relied on speed and scoring points, combined with stingy defenses. His complete undoing was the 4-7 campaign and the loss to South Carolina when he once again got in the way of an easy win. His first poor move was the hiring of Charlie Weiss who anyone with a pulse regarding college football knew was an auditioning job for a head spot. To me that started the carousel of poor decisions, combined with his unwillingness to play to win. South Carolina…he has learned from Fla, but he still meddles with the other side of the ball at times, and he tried his best to give us a game we had no business winning last year. The kids do seem to love to play for him though. I, however, feel the jury is still out….

I tend to agree with Ocalarob above, but then again not completely. That is, I think Sallee has a point about who Muschamp was considered to be across the board when he was hired by Florida — a great hire who could continue an elite program — and also about the poor assumptions he made at the start of his tenure. And, who knows? Maybe with just a little more time he would have gotten the Gators back on top with the right corrections, as Sallee suggests. But. But that would have been a gamble for Florida at the time, not a calculated risk, and it’s nobody’s fault but Muschamp’s that the decision had to be made. Fortunately for him, South Carolina was willing to gamble, and whether or not it pays off for them remains to be seen. I think it will, but not at the level they want it to be — but such is life at USC. We expect SEC championships and National titles, even tho it doesn’t feel like it anymore, South Carolina would be ecstatic with an SEC East once in a while. Maybe I’m wrong — football is full of surprises after all.

Ocala Rob ha a good part of it in he was humbled. He never would have changed if he hadn’t been fired. 6 I never understood the enchantment with him as the coach in waiting in Texas. He had to my knowledge never been a HC. While that doesn’t mean he couldn’t I think it meant he wasn’t ready. Texas being part of the no defense league for many years added him and with a defense to complement the offensive attack had some success. it was obvious he understood defense, it was also obvious he didn’t understand offense and wasn’t willing to hire a OC and (this is the important part) delegate those responsibilities and (even bigger part) coordinate the offense and defense into a cohesive game plan. The adage defense wins championships I believe holds true. BUT without some kind of offense you won’t win. A business rule from college days is an 80/20 rule. I have spent a lifetime observing this and find it works in most situations. 20% of your work force will produce 80% of your work. In sales it is 20% of your customers will be 80% of your sales. If you look at the D I ball there are ~ 130 teams if the rule works in football 26 teams are your most productive (a coach in the top 25 is usually in a good place unless you are at UF, UT, GA AU, LSU list goes on”. Pretty close to the polls “top 25”. This applies to players as well and I think the rule fits there that 20% are your top performers. Back to the topic at hand. While I think Muschamp is a good coach I don’t think he will consistently be a top 20% coach. At least not in the next five- ten years. He lacks (ed) seasoning from experience as a HC. Mullen only had two losing season at MSU. He was ranked AP at some point in 6 seasons out of 9 (with recruiting pool available this is better than MSU has done before. Nine seasons 8 bowl games (not NC or SEC) but not to shabby. oh and 6 wins which is 4/10 off of 80%. Muschamp SC in two years has not been ranked by AP. His record while at Florida was better but there was talent when he came in and it appears he failed to develop talent as time passed.

I guess the enchantment was that he was at heart an SEC guy, and hey, at that point in time an endorsement from Mack Brown carried a lot of weight. We probably wanted to get him before anybody else did, but I personally lamented at the time that we had missed the cycle for Charley Strong. I guess we missed that twice, come to think of it — but as much as I admire Strong, I’m glad it worked out the way it did the second time!

Gator 6…I do think our fanbase is unrealistic on the time it takes to get back at times. Dabo Swinney took a while to get out of the good to great program category. There was a term called “Clemsoning” but they stuck with him and now are elite…and since CJ Spiller, have pillaged Florida for quality skill guys that generally would not leave the state.

That’s true, and I remember the feeling that Dabo wasn’t quite ready to step up at the time, too. I’m sure that a lot of Clemson people have choked on those words since! But I don’t know what it’s going to take, Smith, to get folks off Mullen’s back and do what we all know in our hearts that he is very well capable of doing.

Smith & 6, Clemson was in a different position. they were good on and off never elite. That afforded Dabo the time to build his program. I also doubt the alumni are as quick to condemn as ours are. We have been there and are dying to return. If Dabo had fallen out of favor too much he wouldn’t have lasted. And yes, I am sure some of them are tasting crow now. I think the time will be shorter than some think but I am not sure the Boosters will last that long. The world has gotten on the instant gratification train.

That’s true…but I don’t think he would have lasted here after Urban’s run…JMO. You are right in that some if not many are eating crow up in Clemson. Juggling coaches like this isn’t good and is a negative recruiting tool to boot. FSU for instance can say this is our 3rd coach in close to 50 years.

Hadn’t thought of it that way, Smith — damned if that’s not a good point and a feather in FSU’s cap. Darn it.

Speaking of Dabo, who I have the utmost respect for too, when Saban finally retires I think the money will be on him to move over to Bama. Assuming he’s not in a wheel chair himself by then, of course.

The get a better coach mentality while valid in most cases is not always the way. We have made changes because of sanctions. We have made changes for lack of performance, we had coaches leave. SOS, Meyer both with successful programs. SOS would have stayed (I think if there was a different attitude above) That same attitude wished he was back later. On the 3 coaches in 50 years. I think that with some exception that mentality is gone. It is now what are you doing for me now. Not last season. But to contradict my own words of giving it time Muschamp and MAc were not going to get us there. The plans were flawed from the beginning. Mullens plan seems right.

65…Yeah not saying I believed the changes were invalid given the circumstances, but more to the fact of what is being used against us. The “Mac won 2 SEC East titles but that wasn’t good enough” chatter. You have had guys like Bogga McFarland for instance denounce that decision on SEC Network.

I agree…gone are the Paterno, Bowden, Beamer types…and fanbases will not allow those situations again IMO

I always believed that Muschamp would be a good coach….someday. However there was only one regret I had when he left UF: That he would come up against us in the future. That, of course has come to pass, and now we have to face him every year. It remains to be seen if he will REALLY develop into a quality head coach or if he fell into a QB he can’t ruin

meyer left an absolute disaster to muschamp … it would have taken him 5-7 years to clean up … if he had truly known was he was getting, he may not have even taken the job… on a different note, they have the gators trending up? well, that’s shocking… how do you trend down from 4-8 ?? pretty hard to do i would think, but no expert here

Streaks and records broken by Will Muschamp
– 22-year bowl streak dating back to 1991 season.
– First non-probation Gator team to miss a bowl game since 1979, when Florida went 0-10-1.
– First 7-game losing streak (most likely 8 after next week) since 1979.
– First losing season since 1979.
– First loss to Vandy since 1988.
– First home loss to Vandy since 1945.
– First loss to an FCS team (Ga Southern).
– First home non-conference loss to a team other than Miami or Florida State since 1988 (Memphis State).
– First win over an FBS (Div I-A) school for Ga Southern. They were 0-20 coming into the Florida game.
– Fourth most rushing yards given up in school history (429 yards to Ga Southern).
– Lowest home attendance since most recent stadium expansion in 2003 (Ga Southern – 82,459).
– Lowest home attendance since at least 2000 (don’t know pre-2000 attendance numbers).
– First loss to an opponent that completed 0 passes (Ga Southern).
– First Florida coach to have a losing record in conference since 1986 (3-5 in 2011 and 2013).
– First three-game losing streak to conference rival Georgia since Galen Hall was head football coach in 1989.

0-2 streak in games when his defense allowed only 120 or fewer yards And not just barely lost, but lost 21-7 while giving up 95 yards, and lost 42-13 on 119 yards.

Steve, But I thought this article was about Florida trending up this year. Not Florida trending down when Muschamp was here almost four years ago. But to your subject. I believe Muschamp would have eventually developed a consistently decent team at Florida because he was and is such a good recruiter, like Smart is at Georgia (Smart is clearly a lot better, however). But Smart is a much better pregame and during a game coach vs. Muschamp. So I think Florida would have never developed into a consistent contender for the East and SEC titles under Muschamp. I personally believe Mullen is a better coach than either Smart or Muschamp, but I am deeply concerned about his recruiting; based on his time under Meyer at Florida, his time at MSU, and his time so far at Florida. Winning the SEC title, particularly now with the way Alabama has recruited and the way Georgia is recruiting now, will be largely based on the head coach being able to recruit elite talent to a campus and coach up that talent. There is no doubt that Mullen can coach up talent, and he will do that this year in a big way, I believe. But I am not convinced that Mullen and his current staff have the recruiting knowledge and skills to recruit elite talent to Florida consistently and on par with what Bama has been doing for years and what Georgia is now doing. I believe Mullen made a huge mistake by not retaining the previous running backs coach, who was a great recruiter and had tons on connections in this state. Not sure which coach on the current staff can call themselves that. Scott would be the closest to that, but he has been largely silent on the recruiting front so far. I am excited about what Mullen will do with the talent on the Florida roster this year, but I am concerned about the years to follow at this point compared to what is being gathered talent wise at Bama, Georgia, and now Texas A&M. Saban, Smart, and Fisher are just killing it on the recruiting trail, although Fisher clearly needs to show that he can coach up that talent in the fall. He was not that great of that at FSU, very similar to Richt when he was a Georgia. Both those coaches should have won far more championships at FSU and Georgia based on the talent they had. Mullen may have to win, as he did at MSU, with less talent on his roster. But like MSU, maybe not championships. Hope I am dead wrong, but the current trend is saying the opposite.

Tampa, I agree that our recruiting is not where we want. But I also think the recruits are looking at the current winning teams first. And I also hear Mullen has a different approach to recruiting (honesty) that may hinder things at first. But the players that have spoken from MSU have talked about him in a light of respect and honesty. I feel once this season kicks off and if (we have been waiting a long time) the team performs well. The recruiting is going to get crazy. I am with you in disappointment and frustration in seeing a lot of these players go elsewhere but I am also optimistic that there are going to be some changing their minds and we will close the 2019 much better than appears. We have been focused on the actions of a few this summer and how Mullen and his staff handle that bump will also effect how recruiting goes. There have been some 5 stars that have visited and elected early to go elsewhere. They may not see us as a top five team. I hope they are wrong. But as always happens in college football a issue at another program, a losing season and players will look elsewhere. Not arguing with you just think the process is going to take a while (hopefully sooner than later) to unfold. It took two coaches 7 years to create the mess. Arguable something happened in the last years of Meyer was part of that as well. Moral. Can’t rest on your laurels. I am willing to give Mullen a longer leash than most. Don’t think that he will need it but I just have this gut feeling things are going to change and once the momentum picks up…

Gator6. All in with Mullen as a coach and a leader of a program. But the recruiting aspect has been a weakness for him when he was at Florida previously and at Mississippi State. Mullen also has some great game day coaches on his staff. But other than Scott, not any of them have stood out individually as very good recruiters in the past. Georgia has two or three outstanding recruiters on their coaching staff and some very good new facilities, and it is paying off for them right now. As I previously posted, Mullen deciding not to retain the running backs coach under McElwain, who was a great recruiter with solid Florida connections (which is currently paying dividends for Penn State) was a huge mistake.

Thanks, Smith. I could not remember his name. He had a lot going on under McElwain as a recruiter and was the main guy putting together that top class before McElwain was fired. I remember being very disappointed when Mullen announced that he was bringing the RBs coach from MSU and Seider was being demoted to coach a position he did not want to coach. He then left for Penn State.

You are not alone Tampa…I thought that was a key hire by Mac and one that should have remained due to his connections in South Florida. As you probably know, he was a VITAL to the pipeline to West Virginia from that area. This is one of the aspects of Mullen’s tenure (the footprint in So Fla not being seemingly not a major deal), that’s a head scratcher. Who the heck am I though?? LOL…

Ahhh…. the facts! Great post, Steve. Salle seems to be incapable of engaging with reality and thus his opinion is worth no more than that of a drunken clown who thinks Thunderbird is high quality hooch.

Basic journalistic instruction: A headline (that is used to draw the interest of the reader) should relate directly to the first paragraph of an article, and the last paragraph should be a summation of the theme developed from that headline throughout that article. And the content should be singularly focused based off the headline and stay on topic throughout that article. Guess what? None of that was followed with this article. I read this article and said, “What?”, after reading it. But I would have enjoyed reading an article that explored the underrated talent and why on the Florida coaches and how the current coaches have a record of getting talent to perform way beyond expectations year in and year out. And I thought, based on the headlines, that was what this article was about. Nope. Still not sure what it was singularly about. I think it was about Muschamp and his failures and now success somewhere else. But not sure it was or not. But it was not about Florida trending up other than maybe a couple of sentences.

Muschamp may have success at South Carolina but to say that UF pulled the plug to early is insane. They actually waited a year too long. At the point when he took over the program, UF should never have a losing record. Galen Hall managed to have winning seasons each year while on TV probation and limited scholarships while playing Auburn, LSU, Georgia, FSU and Miami. The injuries excuse was embarrassing. Muschamp was way too conservative and his offense player evaluation was awful. Everybody talked about and is still talking about his great recruiting but he was trying to build a team full of DBs. 5-star players can’t do anything when they are only on one side of the ball. When he left, we had 7 scholarship offensive linemen. What kind of recruiting guru has seven offensive linemen total? He began this program into a downward spiral and Mac finished it off with his shenanigans.

I’ve had never before seen a head coach that didn’t want his offense to score. Thanks for the memories Will.

Muschamp should not be allowed to face the field while his team has the ball. His offense coordinator needs full control during the game and for filling half the scholarships. With that formula, Muschamp could be super successful.

Does anyone on the Gatorsports staff have any idea why Florida did not even offer Rian Davis, the number five rated ILB from that state of Florida that just committed to Georgia this weekend? Not even an offer for one of the top linebacker recruits in the country, from the state of Florida, by the Florida coaches? Why is that? Inquiring minds want to know. And any updates on the recruitment of Trey Sanders, the top running back in the state of Florida who is at IMG but is a Florida resident? I hear he is almost a done deal to Bama now and Florida is now going after much lesser rated recruits at RB. You would think, based on his mother being a huge Florida fan and his brother on the UF campus to play LB, Florida would be more in with Sanders than they appear to be. Lots of stories out there not being covered. Where is Zack when you need him?

Zack must have gone to the latrine, only to be devoured by starving hogs. But all in all, it was a good article even if did not really correspond to the headline, and really touched a nerve about one of our favorite ex-coaches to love or hate.

TampaGator,
Did you just really state that you believe Mullen to be a better coach than Smart? I realize that Smart is only going into his 3rd year as a HC, but his 2 year track record is pretty good, and Mullen did not exactly set the world on fire at MSU. And, based on how things are trending, since we’re talking about trends here, Smart is heading towards the Number 1 recruiting class, again, for 2019. Starting to become apparent to us Georgia folks that perhaps Smart played a major role in the so-called “Saban process.” I’ll give Mullen the benefit of the doubt here, because i like him and happen to think he is good for Florida. UF fans will need to be patient though. From the looks of things here recently (i.e. slow recruiting start and disciplinary issues) looks like the turnaround might take longer than anticipated. See you in Jax!

Wally….cmon bro…what other MSU staff previously set the world on fire and was able to compete year in and year out since the making of Divisions in 1992, with the likes of West perennial powers Alabama, LSU and Auburn? You have to give proper credence to a program that has never been near the top consistently, coming off Croom’s tenure to boot, for that comparison/evaluation to be legitimate. Smart looks the part, but coming from BAMA to UGA historically and categorically is not the same as leaving MSU to a team coming off probably the worst season in 40 years.

Well said Smith — I started and then cancelled a reply to Wally, oddly enough because I was pissed off that he was apparently taking TampaGator to task. When I came back, you had already answered him much better than I would have, without cussing like a sailor!

Look…I lived in Atlanta 14+ years so I know they are giddy as they are trending upward no doubt, and I have no problem with him being here talking some noise….it’s fun…but that win loss only argument is nonsense. A program like Miss State has to to get in guys to develop and hopefully have Junior/Senior laden teams on a consistent basis. There is a pecking order anyone know that historically it’s tough for the Miss schools and Arkansas to be consistently good in the West. Now you have A & M over there with all those resources, and it’s even tougher.

Roger that! The Texas-Oklahoma-Kansas corridor has been slow to embrace the SEC presence of late, but as TAMU gains traction, the Big-12 is most likely going to be sucking hind teat in recruiting all of a sudden. LSU and Arkansas recruiting there pretty heavy too.

I was born at Ft Benning, so I get you on being tolerant. Pretty much don’t admit to it tho, except for Iron Mike and IOBC.

Wally Butts. Mullen set all kinds of records as head coach of the Mississippi State program and achieved levels never achieved by any head coach that proceeded him there. And yes, I think he is a better game day coach and understands both sides of the ball better than Smart. But clearly, right now, Smart is a far better recruiter. But if I had to choose one coach to coach one game for me that mattered, I would pick Mullen over Smart every single time. And time will tell if Mullen is a better overall leader of a football program than Smart. That, I am not clear on right now. But the other, I have no doubts on. And the turnaround starts September 1, 2018 and will continue throughout this season. And my bet will be on Florida in Jacksonville, this year. How about them apples, sir.

6 I’ll be there to report live. Since I’ve been there for all but one game in last 12 years UGA fans leave in mass if they are losing. Now some UF fans do too. But not like UGA. I hope to witness the exodus of Red and black again this year.

LOL! 65…living in Atlanta area from 94-08, there were very few Monday Mornings after the Cocktail Party that I wasn’t a happy camper at work. They would mass exodus sports bars too…lol. What I do miss up there is college football is king and it is all over talk radio….and to hear the tears and bellyaching year to year about the Dawgs was hilarious. Atlanta being virtually in the center of the SEC has fanbases from all schools in droves…so the trash talk was fun…and those were Golden Gator football years.

I quit reading when this article rated rated champ as one of the top coaches in the conference. Neither is true. I also read most comments since there often is some really good stuff there too. But any comment implying champ is an sec caliber coach, well sorry, the day that is true Will mean the conference has collapsed to everyone being 4 and 7 every couple of years.

Good article. Even though Muschamp was raised in Gainesville, played football in Gainesville, Gator Nation never trusted Muschamp because he played for the Georgia Bulldogs and therefore never could establish the trust or loyalty of Gator Nation. The reason he is successful with the GameCocks today is because he learned to be a Head Ball Coach at Florida. Personally, I wish him much success … except when he plays Florida. Hopefully, he will beat the Dawgs on a regular basis and this year would be a good year to start that trend!

Mushbrain is a loser as a head coach, and he will produce zero championships for USC, get clobbered by Clemson every year and then get fired. USC fans will applaud loudly as he leaves, promising as he is tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on the rail that next year he really will install a new offense– no, seriously, for realz!

In a decade, no one will even remember or care that this worthless clown ever coached in the SEC, other than Jeremy Foley who has a life-sized poster of Mushy on the wall above his bed with the words, “My Best Decision Ever” painted above it.

”(success) …will be largely based on the head coach being able to recruit elite talent to a campus and coach up that talent.” -Above commenter (too many to remember, sorry).
But now with the ”Gangsta Paradise” influx on U.F. campus (see: Wells, Cleveland, Toney, Emory Jones, etc…) the coaching job is more than just recruiting and coaching in order to ”trend up”. It’s having to be PARENT-LIKE (while these kids are away from home), and not just their FRIEND and/or COACH.
Choices and consequences! Like Satan said (in Gainesville, FL., too) in the movie, The Devil’s Advocate, ”Free-will, it is a bi#ch!”
But props to commenter, Steve, for REMINDED us, Gator fans, of all the bad records set with U.F. Football under former U.F. Head Coach, ”Muschamp.”

I read that one Gator football player is a member of the street gang, the Bloods. I don’t know if that’s true or not, not having complete faith in the media anymore, but if it is, GI, if this is indeed true — it puts things at a considerably more serious level. I have some experience with those guys from 3 different correctional settings, one of them military, and believe me….that’s not good.