disclaimer: "The meteorological
views/forecast
thinking expressed are those solely of the author of this blog
and do
not
necessarily represent those of official National Weather Service
forecast products,
therefore read and enjoy at your own risk and edification!"

December 28, 2006

A snowier scenario for Southwest Kansas! Well, all the models seem to be in a reasonable agreement now through 48 hours (Saturday morning 12/30) in taking the mid level vorticity max through West Texas to a position near Childress, TX. Surface response will be impressive with a compact surface low over Oklahoma somewhere. Where in Oklahoma the surface low tracks… will play a huge impact in where the rain/snow line sets up for the "main show" when this mid level low/vort max impinges on Southwest Kansas. Boy it is going to be close here in Dodge City… if the track is just a 30 miles more southeast…then the cold wedge can filter farther east… and Dodge City will see significant snow and wind on Saturday. Right now, it appears snow and wind (with perhaps blizzard conditions at times), could be a very big problem west of a Liberal-Garden City-Dighton, KS line. Below is a 6-panel of 500mb and Sea Level Pressure from the GFS, NAM, and Canadian models from this morning’s run:

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