Observations on the market action and the implications of the gold and silver markets.

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

TIC Report - Treasury International Capital

The totals are increasing but not enough to make up for the increasing total of thecurrent account deficit which is mostly the trade account, which is in deficit. Between the current, trade and budget deficits, the US is borrowing the best part of a trillion USD a year from the rest of the world to maintain its current standard of living. How long do you think the rest of the world will keep lending an irresponsible spendthrift this amount of "money"? It looks like that lending is slowing down. A negative for the USD. No wonder the USD, notes and bonds are toppy/topping. I would guess that this report was released to the special few a few days before its official release date, if I had to guess from the charts of the USD, notes and bonds.

Jim Sinclair says that the TIC report was $53.6 billion below the lowest published expectation. Expectations are important. They can start momentum in markets which is what really moves markets. I think that momentum is already underway in gold and silver. Underway to the upside.

Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve BoardJune 15, 20051/ Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and nonmarketable bills, bonds and notes reported under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data.2/ Denotes series break: Series IV positions data for this month and prior periods to June 2003 are based on the end-June 2003 annual Survey; Series V positions data for this month and subsequent periods are based on preliminary results from the end-June 2004 annual Survey.3/ Includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man.4/ Includes Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles, and Panama.