Ray Ison, Professor in Systems at the UK Open University since 1994, is a member of the Applied Systems Thinking in Practice Group. From 2008-15 he also developed and ran the Systemic Governance Research Program at Monash University, Melbourne. In this blog he reflects on contemporary issues from a systemic perspective.

Today I received news of this publication, which confirms in a rigorous analysis what many of us have known for some time:

"There are four billion people worldwide who are
affected by severe water scarcity for at least one month a year. That is
the conclusion of University of Twente Professor of Water Management,
Arjen Hoekstra, after many years’ extensive research. This alarming
figure is much higher than was previously thought. His ground-breaking
research was published in Science Advances.

Professor Hoekstra’s team is the first research group
in the world to identify people’s water footprint from month to month
and to compare it to the monthly availability of water. “Up to now, this
type of research concentrated solely on the scarcity of water on an
annual basis, and had only been carried out in the largest river
basins,” says Hoekstra.

He defines severe water scarcity as the depletion of
water in a certain area. “Groundwater levels are falling, lakes are
drying up, less water is flowing in rivers, and water supplies for
industry and farmers are threatened. In this research, we established
the maximum sustainable ‘water footprint’ for every location on earth,
and then looked at actual water consumption. If the latter is much
greater than what is sustainable, then there can be said to be severe
water scarcity.”

The full paper is available to view. A key conclusion is that:"Putting caps to water consumption by river basin, increasing water-use
efficiencies, and better sharing of the limited freshwater resources
will be key in reducing the threat posed by water scarcity on
biodiversity and human welfare."

The tragedy is that politicians, bankers, developers and techno-optimists still believe there is a biological free lunch to be had by damming more rivers; in policy circles it seems too hard to appreciate that caps on water consumption are needed. Unfortunately Australia's new Deputy Premier is of the 'exploitation' persuasion as this report outlines:"Federal and state government eyes have turned once again toward water infrastructure for northern Australia.

At talks with community groups and members of the public, dams and the downturn in resources dominated discussion.

No announcements were made, but Mr Joyce did reaffirm his keenness for water projects.“Water is wealth and a dam is a bank,” he said.

“Any essence of wealth is connected to water and water infrastructure.

“As they say you can make money out of mud, you can't make it out of dust.

“We have put $500 million on the table, for which $50 million goes
towards the feasibility studies of the construction of dams. Now these
have actually been over-subscribed.”

Perhaps Barnaby may become known as the minister for Systemic Failings! It is ironic that Malcolm Turnbull has much of the credit for the legislation that has led to caps in water exploitation in the Murray-Darling Basin, although some would argue these achievements are under threat.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

It is a pity that governments and policy folk seduced by techno-optimism do not reaslise that in human-nature relations there is no such thing as a free lunch. This is why we have a global water crisis as so many of our river systems and aquifers are over exploited - often irreversibly. It is thus tragic to hear of the latest round of plans by the Indian Government highlighted in this report:

"The government of India has announced plans to borrow 860 billion
rupees (AU$18 billion) from overseas to fund irrigation projects.

Crop output in Asia’s third-biggest economy has been smashed by two
dry years, leading the government to undertake bold measures it says
will restore as much as 13 million hectares of irrigated farmland.

“We want to use the next 10 years to drought proof the country,”
Shashi Shekhar, chief of India’s water-resources ministry, recently told
reporters.

“Agriculture must become resilient to climate change.”

India is rumoured to be approaching the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and various state-owned banks for loans.

Reports say ten Indian state governments are part of the plan, which
will see the federal government split repayments equally between them.

Water availability will continue to be a major issue in India, even
more so given that the strongest El Nino in almost two decades has
brought unusual weather and damaged crops across the entire region.

Less than half of India’s 141.6 million hectares of farmland is irrigated.

Most of India’s 263 million farmers rely on rain as a major source of
irrigation, but with falls recorded at 14 per cent below the 50-year
average in recent years, more solid supplies are needed.

With Agriculture contributing about 15 per cent to India’s GDP and
standing as the nation’s biggest employer, the live of millions are
inextricably linked to good irrigation."