000
FXUS63 KGRR 160436
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1236 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018
High pressure over western Ontario will move southeast over the
Great Lakes Friday setting up a few days of sunshine. The next storm
system will likely arrive late Tuesday and may bring a few inches of
snow to areas south of I-96 which will create travel issues Tuesday
night and Wednesday.
Highs over the weekend will be in the 45 to 50 degree range.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018
Forecast concerns over the short term are minimal and mostly deal
with cloud trends tonight.
Latest vis loop shows an extensive area of stratocu moving southeast
across Lower Michigan. Clouds over the western cwa were dissipating
due to a large area of high pressure nosing in from the west. We`ll
see clouds continue to erode this evening leading to mostly clear
skies late. Mostly clear skies are then expected through Saturday
night.
Temperatures will progressively warm through the period with highs
in the mid 30s Friday warming to the 40s Saturday. Tonight will be
the coldest night as temperatures fall into the teens.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018
Concerns during the long temp focus on the potential for
accumulating snow Tuesday night and Wednesday.
A southern stream low is progd to move east across the Tennessee
River Valley, which would normally be too far south to create
significant precipitation over the cwa. However, this system is a
bit different. Both the gfs and ecmwf show a secondary low
developing west of the first low as the first low begins to
redevelop off the SE US coast. A trailing digging short wave should
push the second low northward and that`s when we could see some
light snow. The ecmwf paints 2-5 inches of show across the southern
cwa Tuesday night/Wednesday. Mixed precipitation is possible
Wednesday as the upper trough moves across the state and then dry
weather for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1236 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. The only
aviation concern is the brisk winds. The north winds were in the
process of diminishing and speeds less than 10 knots should be
realized by 08Z. The winds for the remainder of the day and into
this evening will continue to be light.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1032 AM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018
River levels will continue to fall into next week. The Portage River
near Vicksburg is the only site remaining above flood stage and has
a history of falling very slowly. A dry weather pattern is expected
to continue into next week.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...JK
HYDROLOGY...63