Tag: Protectionism

Investing is a curious mixture of art and science. It is a world of phenomenally fast algorithmic trading, supplemented with old-fashioned sayings and adages concocted decades ago. Behavioural finance studies draw attention to the importance of ‘heuristics’. These are mental shortcuts or rules of thumb that ease the cognitive load in decision-making. The saying “sell … Continue reading “Still on our way in May, watching for winners”

After the long period of rather calm markets in 2016-17, we predicted that from 2018 onwards, we would see a return towards more normal levels of market volatility. Swings up and down in share prices – even big moves – are normal behaviour for markets. The upside from investing in equity markets is the potential … Continue reading “Fear not – volatility is normal”

So far, 2018 has been a difficult year for emerging market (EM) assets, which in the last few months have fared significantly worse than their counterparts in developed markets. This has been due mainly to worldwide issues but also country-specific political uncertainty. Many investors are now asking if the sell-off presents a buying opportunity – … Continue reading “Emerging markets: increasing or decreasing risks?”

When equity markets were hitting new highs Donald Trump was taking all the credit. “The reason our stock market is so successful is because of me,” the President declared to journalists aboard Air Force One. But the problem with this attitude, as noted by Barack Obama’s former press secretary Jay Carney, is that if you … Continue reading “Investors are hoping Trump is playing tactics”

Since the start of this year, the UK political consensus has moved towards a customs union for goods, including agricultural trade, in the final UK-European Union (EU) free trade agreement. This is largely the result of the EU’s rejection of the UK’s alternative proposals to solve the Irish border issue and the Labour party making … Continue reading “Bordering on a Customs Union”

It is hard to square a US President bent on protectionism with two institutions that have been a bulwark for free trade for over 70 years. The Bretton Woods institutions, as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) are known collectively, were created during the Second World War to support the post-war economic and … Continue reading “The IMF and World Bank must evolve to remain relevant”

When President Trump met President Xi we were told the meeting went well. The two men recognised the power each held, and both had a reason to want a positive relationship. Mr Trump understood the influence China has over North Korea, and wanted help with sorting out the tensions over North Korea’s development of nuclear … Continue reading “Can China get along with President Trump?”

Just as economies around the world show signs of growing in sync (which is rare) Donald Trump has announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminium. Stock markets reacted badly to the news, on fears of a possible trade war. After taking rising interest rates and stock market volatility in their stride, the threat of protectionism … Continue reading “America First – At what cost?”

Last week, the White House announced tariffs on imported steel and aluminum of 25% and 10% respectively – a move that sparked global indignation and threats of a trade war. But tariffs are more common than you may imagine. Almost every US president since Ronald Reagan has announced a tariff of one kind or another. … Continue reading “Trump’s tariffs”

Donald Trump is set to become the next president of the United States and the world has to grapple with the implications. Emerging economies, among the biggest beneficiaries of globalisation, are watching with trepidation as the self-styled architect of ‘Brexit-plus-plus-plus’ threatens to undermine a rules-based international system of trade and investment that took decades to … Continue reading “Trump’s policies can’t stop the fastest growing economies in the world”