Will Gingrich hold up as front-runner?

Newt Gingrich (AP photo)

Although Iowa caucusgoers said last month that business experience mattered more than political experience for a candidate in this election, they’re now turning to the professor-in-chief, the history buff and Washington ace who was first elected to Congress in 1978.

Newt Gingrich himself seems surprised to reach such heights.

“I have to confess, this is disorienting,” he told reporters in Iowa after a GOP fundraising dinner Thursday night. “This is such a rapid change that we’re having to rethink our own internal operations right now and where we are.”

But so far in this race, no one has held the top perch for long. Gingrich’s rivals are already starting to put him through the woodchipper.

Poll respondents say they think Gingrich has been a fresh voice who conveys competence in every debate. The poll shows likely caucusgoers view him as the most experienced, most knowledgeable about the world and best able to turn the economy around.

“He’s familiar with Washington, D.C., and its ways,” said strong tea party supporter Karen Johnson, 60, a Bettendorf retiree. “With debates, he would leave Obama in the dust.”

Some of Gingrich’s fans fled other candidates. Among those who say Gingrich is now their first choice, 16 percent used to be Cain supporters, and 13 percent were Perry supporters.

Phil McCormick, 59, a small business owner from Davenport who considers himself very conservative, said he would have caucused for Cain.

“I believed Herman Cain until Ginger White,” he said, referring to the woman who said she and Cain had a 13-year extramarital affair. “If he had said, ‘I am the worst philanderer in the world, and I know it and I shouldn’t have done it. You caught me.’ I would have said, ‘OK.’ But don’t cover it.”

He’s now a Gingrich backer, although he’s not yet locked in

“He sounds like the adult,” McCormick said. “He has his ideas, and he can defend those ideas.”

Is Paul a real threat to win the caucuses?

Even as the national media declare this a two-man race — Newt and Mitt — a guy named Ron is quietly picking up speed in Iowa.

Ron Paul (AP photo)

But is his surge a curiosity or a serious threat?

Ron Paul, a libertarian-leaning Texas congressman, could deliver beyond his polling numbers because of his organizational strength and the commitment of his fervent base, politics watchers said.

“Unlike Gingrich, Paul is very well organized in Iowa,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

“If he can minimize Gingrich’s win by finishing a close second, or even first, then that will take some of the air out of Gingrich’s balloon. That helps Paul, but it also helps Romney.”

The Paul campaign in Iowa has “hard pledges from 20,000 voters,” Time magazine reported Friday. “Given that there are usually between 90,000 and 115,000 GOP caucusgoers, 20,000 pledges in an eight-way field is nothing to sneeze at.”

Paul all but ties with Gingrich among first-time caucusgoers.

Paul also wins with the small group of independents who plan to caucus, claiming 38 percent, a bloc thought to be Romney’s strong suit. That’s twice what Romney gets (19percent).

And Paul leads with the few likely GOP caucusgoers who consider themselves moderates and liberals (27 percent) over Romney (20 percent).

Independent voter Maureen McClain said not everything Paul expounds upon matches her views, “but he’s on target with most of what he says.”

McClain, 56, a mental health professional from Boone, doesn’t agree with “his real right-wing conservative stance on some issues.” But she likes his pleas to stop the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to reform campaign finance laws.

Can Romney regain his traction?

Mitt Romney (AP photo)

Mitt Romney, one of the least frequent visitors to Iowa, has seen his lead shrink here.

He placed a disappointing second in the caucuses four years ago after heavily investing time and money in Iowa.

“Iowa was a trap for Romney in 2008, and it could be a trap for him again,” said Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.

But Romney’s campaign this cycle is built for the long haul, and just needs to emerge from the Iowa caucuses with a strong finish, several strategists said. And there are hints in the poll results that likely GOP caucusgoers believe Romney is best suited to win.

For one thing, the poll confirms that Iowa is open to candidates other than the strongest social conservatives. Respondents vote Michele Bachmann as the most socially conservative candidate in the race, at 27 percent, but she’s nowhere near the top tier.