In the last update I wondered if growth expectations - and growth - were breaking out to the upside. 10 year Treasury yields were well over the 3% threshold that seemed so ominous and TIPS yields were nearing 1%, a level not seen since early 2011. It looked like we might finally move to a [...]

Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time [...]

Personal intuition usually serves well in both economics and finance, which is why, despite all the billions of dollars and amazing efforts otherwise, this business is still an art and not a “science” (even pseudo-). I should have remembered as such the last time I actually reported on a sentiment survey, as the Chicago PMI [...]

I spend a lot of time reading the economic tea leaves. Given my well known distrust of politicians and government, it is a bit of ironic that I spend so much time poring over the details of government produced reports but there really is little choice. I also look at privately produced reports such as [...]

The market got exactly what it expected last week and the result was another leg higher in a rally built on two dubious assumptions: gridlock is good and the Fed can fix what ails the economy. The mid term elections delivered control of the House of Representatives to John Boehner and the Republicans while [...]

It was a light week for economic data and what we did get served more to confuse than clarify. Market action seems to indicate that the data at this point is basically irrelevant anyway as all the market's attention is focused firmly on the potential actions of the Federal Reserve. There appears to be a [...]

So maybe the economy isn't headed over another cliff after all? Last week's economic data wasn't great but it was enough to rally the market 3.5% just because it wasn't as awful as expected. I haven't been particularly worried about the prospect for a double dip into recession land because I'm an eternal optimist - [...]

The Economist asks: Should Government take any steps to boost exports? The overwhelming answer of the economists who were asked? No, the government should find ways to encourage savings. What the politicians would have us believe is that the Chinese are taking advantage of Americans by keeping their currency cheap. That's the same argument they [...]

The economic data last week continued to show strength but there were hints of a softening in a few reports which the bears seized on to make their case. For now, I don't think the data supports the idea of a double dip recession but there are plenty of people who want to believe it so [...]