Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates the Maturity of 1,900 Technologies09:00 EDT Wednesday, August 10, 2011
STAMFORD, Conn. (Business Wire) -- Activity streams, wireless power, Internet TV, NFC payment and private
cloud computing are some of the technologies that have moved into the
Peak of Inflated Expectations, according to the 2011 Emerging
Technologies Hype Cycle by Gartner, Inc. Other newly featured
high-impact trends include big data, and natural language question
answering.
Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle Special Report provides strategists and
planners with an assessment of the maturity, business benefit and future
direction of over 1,900 technologies, grouped into 76 distinct Hype
Cycles. The Hype Cycle graphic has been used by Gartner since 1995 to
highlight the common pattern of overenthusiasm, disillusionment and
eventual realism that accompanies each new technology and innovation.
The Hype Cycle Special Report is updated annually to track technologies
along this cycle and provide guidance on when and where organizations
should adopt them for maximum impact and value
The "Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" report is the longest-running
annual Hype Cycle, providing a cross-industry perspective on the
technologies and trends that IT managers should consider in developing
emerging-technology portfolios (see Figure 1).
"Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies" targets strategic planning,
innovation and emerging technology professionals by highlighting a set
of technologies that will have broad-ranging impact across the
business," said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner fellow. "It is
the broadest aggregate Gartner Hype Cycle, featuring technologies that
are the focus of attention because of particularly high levels of hype,
or those that may not be broadly acknowledged but that Gartner believes
have the potential for significant impact."
"Themes from this year's Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle include
ongoing interest and activity in social media, cloud computing and
mobile," Ms. Fenn said. "On the social media side, social analytics,
activity streams and a new entry for group buying are close to the peak,
showing that the era of sky-high valuations for Web 2.0 startups is not
yet over. Private cloud computing has taken over from more-general cloud
computing at the top of the peak, while cloud/Web platforms have fallen
toward the Trough of Disillusionment since 2010. Mobile technologies
continue to be part of most of our clients' short- and long-range plans
and are present on this Hype Cycle in the form of media tablets, NFC
payments, quick response (QR)/color codes, mobile application stores and
location-aware applications."
Transformational technologies that will hit the mainstream in less than
five years include highly visible areas, such as media tablets and cloud
computing, as well as some that are more IT-specific, such as in-memory
database management systems, big data, and extreme information
processing and management. In the long term, beyond the five-year
horizon, 3D printing, context-enriched services, the “Internet of
Things” (called the "real-world Web" in earlier Gartner research),
Internet TV and natural language question answering will be major
technology forces. Looking more than 10 years out, 3D bioprinting, human
augmentation, mobile robots and quantum computing will also drive
transformational change in the potential of IT.
Many of the technologies featured on this Hype Cycle contribute to the
four themes featured in Gartner's recent report on top technology trends
"Technology Trends That Matter":
The connected world: Advances in embedded sensors, processing and
wireless connectivity are bringing the power of the digital world to
objects and places in the physical world. This is a slow-moving area,
but one that is now accelerating with the growing pervasiveness of
low-cost, embedded sensors and cameras. Relevant entries on this year's
Hype Cycle include the broad trend referred to as the Internet of
Things; identification technologies, such as NFC payments (which will
lead to broader use of NFC for other applications); QR/color code and
image recognition; application layers, such as augmented reality,
context-enriched services and location-aware applications; and
communication technologies, such as machine-to-machine communication
services and sensor mesh networks. Although this area will take at least
another decade to unfold fully, many interesting and profitable
opportunities will arise along the way.
Interface trends: User interfaces are another slow-moving area
with significant recent activity. Speech recognition was on the original
1995 Hype Cycle and has still not reached maturity, and computer-brain
interfaces will evolve for at least another 10 years before moving out
of research and niche status. However, a new entry for natural language
question answering recognizes the impressive and highly visible
achievement of IBM's Watson computer in winning TV's Jeopardy! general
knowledge quiz against champion human opponents. Gesture recognition has
also been launched into the mainstream through Microsoft's Kinect gaming
systems, which is now being hacked by third parties to create a range of
application interfaces. Other areas continue to progress more slowly,
including speech-to-speech translation, augmented reality and virtual
assistants, while virtual worlds remain entrenched in the trough after
peaking in 2007.
Analytical advances: Supporting the storage and manipulation of
raw data to derive greater value and insight, these technologies
continue to grow in capability and applicability. Predictive analytics
is approaching maturity, but researchers and developers continue to
apply and improve the core techniques for new data sources. Image
recognition is driving new capabilities in search, retail and social
media, and also contributes to advances in other areas, such as
augmented reality and video analytics, for customer service. Social
analytics continues to take advantage of new sources and types of social
information. Computational advances, such as in-memory database
management systems and big data, take the scope and scale to new levels.
New digital frontiers: Crossing the traditional boundaries of IT,
new capabilities are reaching levels of performance and pricing that
will fundamentally reshape processes and even industries. Examples on
this year's Hype Cycle include 3D printing and bioprinting (of human
tissue), and mobile robots.
"Many Gartner clients use Hype Cycles as part of their
technology-planning process, often drawing from multiple Hype Cycles,
augmented with industry- or company-specific topics to create their own
Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices," said Ms. Fenn. "Technology providers
use Hype Cycles as a way to understand the likely market reaction to
their products and services based on the adopter community's
expectations and attitudes. Investors watch for technologies that are on
the rise in a Hype Cycle to try to catch them before the Peak of
Inflated Expectations or at the beginning of the Slope of Enlightenment
before they move into mainstream adoption."
Additional information is available in "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special
Report for 2011" at www.gartner.com/hypecycles.
The Special Report includes a video in which Ms. Fenn provides more
details regarding this year's Hype Cycles, as well links to the 76 Hype
Cycle reports.
Ms. Fenn will provide additional analysis during the Gartner webinar
"The Gartner Hype Cycle Special Report: What's Hot for 2011" on August
25 at 9 a.m. EDT and 12 p.m. EDT. To register for one of these
complimentary webinars, please visithttp://my.gartner.com/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=202&mode=2&PageID=5553&ref=webinar-rss&resId=1734616&prm=WB_HC11R.
Mastering the Hype Cycle
Ms. Fenn is co-author of the Gartner book "Mastering the Hype Cycle: How
to Adopt the Right Innovation at the Right Time," published by Harvard
Business Press. Ms. Fenn and Mark Raskino, vice president and Gartner
Fellow, explain a market-tested approach that offers a smarter way for
companies to sort through the hype and choose the right innovations at
the right time. Information about the book is available on Gartner's
website at www.gartner.com/hypecycle.
The book can be ordered athttp://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Hype-Cycle-Innovation-Gartner/dp/1422121100/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216662511&sr=8-1.
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world's leading information technology
research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related
insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every
day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government
agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and
professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is a
valuable partner to 60,000 clients in 11,500 distinct organizations.
Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs,
Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client
to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context
of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in
Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A., and has 4,500 associates, including 1,250
research analysts and consultants, and clients in 85 countries. For more
information, visit www.gartner.com.
GartnerChristy Pettey, + 1-408-468-8312christy.pettey@gartner.comorLaurence
Goasduff, + 44 (0) 1784 267 195laurence.goasduff@gartner.com

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