THE CLIMATE KELPIE BLOG: What’s predicted in March?

Posted by BCG on 6th March 2020

The main Australian climate
drivers, including both the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently neutral and forecast to stay that way
throughout autumn. The other shorter-term drivers like the Southern Annual Mode
(SAM) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are also forecast to remain neutral
over the coming weeks. When these climate drivers are neutral, Australia is
less likely to see widespread above or below average seasonal rainfall. However,
other influences can affect the Australian climate for example ocean
temperatures around northern Australia. Therefore, the outlook for autumn suggests
“Below Average” rainfall is likely over some parts of the tropical north and “Above
Average” for areas of western and southern Australia with “Above Average”
daytime temperatures predicted Australia wide.

Rainfall Roundup

After an extremely dry start to summer, rain in mid-January
and early February brought some relief to drought-stricken regions (Fig. 1). “Above
Average” and “Very Much Above Average” rainfall was recorded in parts of WA,
NT, SA and the east coast of Australia in February (Fig. 1) some of which can
be attributed to the cyclone systems that hit Australia in the north and the
severe storm events that affected eastern Australia. However, despite this much
needed rain around 30% of Australia and 90% of NSW still have some serious or
severe rainfall deficiencies (Fig 2.).

Figure 1. Rainfall deciles for February 2020. Figure 2. Rainfall deciles for December to February 2020.

Rainfall Forecast

The BoM’s ACCESS model suggests that
March is likely to deliver “Below Average” rainfall to much of northern
Australia and “Above Average” across most of southern mainland Australia (Fig.
3). Note that at this time of year accuracy for the three-month forecast is
moderate, except for Gippsland in Vic, parts of NSW and QLD as well as an area
of WA, SA and NT which have low accuracy (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Australian outlook for March to May 2020.

Temperature Roundup

In February, southern Australia experienced “Average” to “Below
Average” maximum temperatures which contrasts with the northern part of the
country which was “Above Average” and “Very Much Above Average” (Fig. 4). Likewise, minimum temperatures were “Above
Average” to “Very Much Above Average” across most of Australia but there were
small pockets in SA where minimum temperatures were “Below Average” (Fig. 5).

The BoM’s ACCESS model forecast suggests that over the next three months maximum temperatures are likely to be “Above Average” across most of Australia except for parts of southern Australia which have an equal chance of being “Above” or “Below Average” (Fig. 6). Minimum temperatures are likely to be “Above Average” across Australia in autumn (Fig. 7). At this time of year accuracy for the three-month maximum temperature forecast is low for the southern half of WA, parts of SA and Vic, whilst the rest of the country has a moderate level of accuracy. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is moderate except for QLD, parts of NSW, NT and WA which has low accuracy at this time of year.

Figure 6. March to May 2020 maximum temperature outlook.Figure 7. March to May 2020 minimum temperature outlook.

Climate and Water Outlook Videos

The Bureau of
Meteorology releases regular outlook videos, covering all this information.
Watch the most recent video below.