Comet Honda and Elenin Crossing Orbits

Comet Honda is zipping past the Earth during the middle of August while at the same time, Comet Elenin appears on a bee line to nearly intersect with the orbit of Comet Honda on September 28,29. Given the current NASA JPL coordinates and orbital information, we’ll all live to see another day… but lets imagine for a moment what would happen if Elenin’s orbital elements were ‘off’ just enough to intersect with Comet Honda, or ‘what if’ Elenin’s course were to change after plowing through the debris field of Honda – prior to it’s encounter with intersecting Earth’s orbit on or about November 2.

Some folks don’t like ‘what-if’ scenarios, especially when they have to do with very low odds of occurring. On the other hand, if you’ve ever hit a few balls around on a pool table, you know how an expected result can be quickly altered by a simple and light touch of one ball against another. Game over.

In the realm of interplanetary space, the effects of gravity as well as other visible and invisible forces, play predominant rolls in what comes our way. Lets hope that the forces in this case are far too weak to alter the current orbital predictions.

A bit of good news is that apparently when looking at a 3D view of Comet Elenin’s orbit, while it will intersect 2-dimensionally with Earth, it will pass ‘above’ the planet by an apparent safe distance. All bets are off though if this thing is jostled.

4 Comments

I noticed that you didn’t give estimated masses of the two comets so that we could do some back of the envelope calculations as to what their effects might be. And remember, gravity obeys the inverse square law.
Not that I don’t like ‘what-if’ scenarios, but the probability of anything significant should be greater that infinitesimal.

I did some searching for mass estimates prior to the article, but was unsuccessful. I was curious to know the mass in order to plug in the numbers for a direct hit on the Earth (I know… extremely unlikely – but I’m curious that way nonetheless).

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