BMI View: Featuring a large, youthful population armed with rising spending power, Turkey continues to offer a dynamic consumer base for growth in food and drink sales over the medium term. Bearing in mind that informal independent stores still account for the majority of food sales, the trade-up to organised food retailing forms the backbone of our long-term view on Turkish retail.

Although serious challenges face the Turkish economy over the next several years, we retain a positive view on the long-term convergence prospects for Turkey, with real GDP growth expected to continue outperforming the eurozone through to the end of our 10-year forecast period. We believe economic policy reforms in the medium term will set the ground work for productivity gains beyond 2015. Significant risks will remain, however, especially as underlying social tensions between secularists and moderate Islamists are unlikely to disappear in the next decade. This has contributed to our view that Turkey will not join the EU anytime over our forecast horizon.