Thursday, 18 January 2018

Permanent partition is in sight

Esra Aygin

During the course of 2017, Cyprus got closer than ever to
being unified. Despite having made unprecedented progress in almost all issues,
prepared maps of territorial adjustments, and opened the security and guarantee
system to negotiation for the first time in history, Turkish Cypriot and Greek
Cypriot leaders failed to take the final step and reach a settlement.

To the astonishment of the international community, in the
early hours of 7 July 2017, the parties left the negotiation table at Crans
Montana, Switzerland and walked away from the best and probably last chance to
unify Cyprus.

As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres later wrote in his
report, this was not due to a lack of understanding over the substance, but a
lack of trust and determination. Unfortunately fear and short-term political
agendas won over vision in Crans-Montana and now Cyprus stands closer than ever
to be permanently divided.

The collapse of talks has empowered the pro-partition forces
on both sides of the island. While right-wing nationalists on the Turkish
Cypriot side are advocating an independent or semi-independent state, Greek
Cypriot nationalists are talking about federalism as an unnecessary risk that
would put Cyprus in permanent danger by enabling Turkey to have impact in its
daily affairs. Although no Greek Cypriot political party or politician has spoken
publicly in favour of a partition, the option of a velvet divorce has entered
public discourse. Moreover, elements across the divide with vested interest in the
continuation of status quo have been active in promoting separation.

A number of reciprocal provocative steps on both sides of
the divide, such as imposing customs duties on humanitarian aid delivered to
Greek Cypriots and Maronites and limiting religious services in the churches in
the north, ceasing the activities of bi-communal committees, and denying entry
at Cyprus airports of non-EU tourists planning to stay in the hotels in the
north, are poisoning the public sentiment and damaging any remaining prospect
of solution.

The UN Secretary General has been very clear about the
conditions of supporting another effort in Cyprus. He stated that there should
be joint determination and willingness by the sides to take up the core issues
in a package approach with the aim of reaching a strategic agreement. However,
instead of paving the way for a successful return to negotiations, both sides
have been setting preconditions that are likely to discourage the UN from
taking any initiative.

Moreover, any positive outcome in Cyprus would depend also on
Turkey and Greece and their broader Greco-Turkish relations. Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces challenging parliamentary and presidential elections
in November 2019 after his narrow victory in a referendum on a new constitution
in April 2017, which abolished the role of prime minister and gave extensive
powers to the presidency. Therefore, it is questionable if Ankara would be
willing to make a move on Cyprus before the knife-edge elections.

Meanwhile, the demographic change that is altering the
composition of the Turkish Cypriot community, mushrooming hotels and casinos in
the hands of Turkish capital, increasing socio-cultural and religious pressure,
increased dependence on Ankara, and direct involvement in education, civil
society and media through the Turkish embassy in Nicosia, will alter the
conditions in the north in such a way that federation will ultimately
practically not be possible in the near future.

As the north will be absorbed demographically, economically,
socially and politically, the progressive Turkish Cypriots seeking unification
will grow weaker, whilst those seeking partition will grow stronger.

The only way to reverse the trend toward permanent partition
is to erode the status quo byactively promoting dialogue, empathy and understanding
between the communities; encouraging economic cooperation and interdependence; and
establishing a sense of partnership and coexistence in every field of life, so
that the conditions are created for the people to demand solution from their
leaders.

We will either let go of our fetish of a comprehensive
solution and embrace a very active evolutionary approach towards a federal
solution or we will sail in uncharted waters until partition is finalized.