Everyone is thinking: “If I can just put together four or five hundreds, or a few five-wicket hauls, I could have a chance.”

Admittedly, it has become a lot harder to make a late run into the England team than it was 20 or 30 years ago. In the 1989 Ashes series, the selectors got through no fewer than 29 players, whereas in 2009 there were just 15.

But that will not stop people dreaming.

A run of injuries, a catastrophic loss of form, and suddenly there might be a place available in the biggest event of the international calendar.

Looking at the first division of the County Championship, I see more quality on show than there has been for many years. The story of the summer could come from Surrey, and their marquee signings, Graeme Smith and Ricky Ponting, who will share captaincy duties at the Oval.

In general, I have been critical of Surrey’s recent policy of importing senior players who have run their course at other counties. Surely, with such a big population to work with, they should be able to produce some players of their own?

But in the case of Smith and Ponting, I expect them to make a big contribution to the English game. They are two hugely professional men and two experienced captains. Any aspiring young leader will be able to learn so much from them.

It is already four seasons since I retired, but as I look around I can see plenty of my contemporaries who are still in senior positions at their counties. I believe that is a good thing.

Of course, you do not want too many old codgers clogging up the game, but when you are talking about people such as Paul Collingwood at Durham, Marcus Trescothick at Somerset, Darren Maddy at Warwickshire and Glen Chapple at Lancashire, they can only set a good example for the youngsters.

The other recent trend, in terms of title-winning teams, is towards those who can maintain a settled line-up. You want to avoid injuries and international call-ups.

Warwickshire last year had to make do without Ian Bell, but they expected that, and the rest of their team was fairly constant; Nottinghamshire, in contrast, have missed Stuart Broad and Graeme Swann badly in recent seasons.

Often the worst-case scenario is to have people who are right on the edge of the England team, and get stuck carrying the drinks for two or three weeks.

You can wind up not playing much cricket and losing form – it happened to Jonny Bairstow last year. Then, when you are released back to your county, you feel vulnerable because you do not have any matches behind you.

It is also interesting to look at the batting orders because with a Duke ball your top three can find it difficult at times, especially early in the season, so it is important to have run-scorers a long way down the order.

It is a regular theme to see teams go 40 for four and then rally through the middle order and what used to be called the tail. Warwickshire are probably the favourites to retain their title because they did this time and again in their championship season last year. They often have Rikki Clarke coming in at No 8 – a guy with 16 first-class hundreds to his name.

Durham also know how to win it and will have a settled team. Ben Stokes has got a lot to prove, especially after being sent home from the England Lions tour of Australia, and I fancy him to have a big year. Their main issue is whether they have enough spin options. Scott Borthwick is a promising leg-spinner but he is still light on experience.

Who else am I backing? It really is a very open field.

Yorkshire look strong in every department but if I go on for too long about them I will be accused of hometown bias.

Somerset look good on paper but you have to ask two questions: can they can take 20 wickets often enough at Taunton, the flattest track in the country? And do they have a winning mentality? We are used to seeing them come so close without quite getting over the line. I hope they land a title soon but it gets harder and harder every time you miss out.

My wild card, as I said at the start, will be Surrey. They may have flirted with relegation from Division One last year, but we have seen how volatile the county game can be in recent seasons, with wild fluctuations in the fortunes of both Lancashire – whom I expect to dominate Division Two – and Yorkshire.

Add the canniness of Smith and Ponting to the spinning expertise of Gary Keedy and Gareth Batty, and then throw in a pitch that should take turn and reverse-swing as the season goes on.

If we see some decent summer weather – a stretch of the imagination at the moment, I grant you – they have a shot at bringing the title back to the Oval for the first time since the Adam Hollioake era.