Financial Repression: A Sheep Shearing Instruction Manual

Overview

"Financial Repression" is currently a hot buzzword in the global economic
community, and its effects are even worse than it sounds. Like other recent
economic buzzwords such as "monetary sterilization" and "quantitative easing",
the average person will never understand the meaning, if they hear the phrase
at all. That is too bad, because governments around the world deliberately
and methodically stripping wealth (and therefore security and retirement lifestyle)
from hundreds of millions of people is the quite explicit objective of Financial
Repression.

As published in a recent working paper on the IMF website, Financial Repression
is what the US and the rest of the advanced economies used to pay down enormous
government debts the last time around, with a reduction in the government debt
to GDP ratio of roughly 70% between 1945 and 1980. Financial Repression offers
a third way out - as it allows governments to pay down huge debt burdens without
either 1) default or 2) hyperinflation. If you are a senior government official
of a nation that has a huge "sovereign debt" problem - like the United States
and almost all of Europe, and you want to stay in power - this proven method
is a topic of keen interest.

To understand this miraculous debt cure for governments, you need to understand
the source of the funding. As we will explore in this article, the essence
of Financial Repression is using a combination of inflation and government
control of interest rates in an environment of capital controls to confiscate
the value of the savings of the world's savers. Rephrased in less academic
terms - the government deliberately destroys the value of money over time,
and uses regulations to force a negative rate of return onto investors in inflation-adjusted
terms, so that the real wealth of savers shrinks by an average of 3-4% per
year (in the postwar historical example), and it uses an assortment of carrots
and sticks to make sure investors have no choice but to accept having the purchasing
power of their investments shrink each year.

What the IMF-distributed paper really constitutes is a Sheep Shearing Instruction
Manual. The "way out" for governments is effectively to put the world's savers
and investors in pens, hold them down, and shear them over and over again,
year after year. Uninformed and helpless victims is what makes Financial Repression
work, and it worked very well indeed for 35 years. On the other hand, if you
understand what is truly going on, then you do have the ability to turn this
to your substantial personal financial advantage. With a genuinely out of the
box approach to long-term investment, the more heavy handed the repression
- the more reliable the wealth compounding for those who reject flock thinking.

Understanding Financial Repression

Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co.), one of the largest investment managers
in the world, released their three to five year outlook last month, and their
CEO predicted that increasing debt problems would lead to higher inflation
and a return to "financial repression" in the United States.

Earlier in May, the Economist magazine had published an article on Financial
Repression that included the following summary:

"... political leaders may have a strong incentive to pursue it (Financial
Repression). Rapid growth seems out of the question for many struggling advanced
economies, austerity and high inflation are extremely unpopular, and leaders
are clearly reluctant to talk about major defaults. It would be very interesting
if debt (rather than financial crisis or growing inequality) was the force
that led to the return of the more managed economic world of the postwar
period."

The phrase "Financial Repression" was first coined by Shaw and McKinnon in
works published in 1973, and it described the dominant financial model used
by the world's advanced economies between 1945 and around 1980. While academic
works have continued to be published over the years, the phrase fell into obscurity
as financial systems liberalized on a global basis, and former comprehensive
sets of national financial controls receded into history.

However, since the financial crisis hit hard in 2008, there has been a resurgence
of interest in how governments have paid down massive debt burdens in the past,
and a fascinating study of Financial Repression, "The Liquidation of Government
Debt", authored by Carmen Reinhart and M. Belen Sbrancia, was published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research in March, 2011 (link below).

The paper is being circulated through the International Monetary Fund, and
to understand why it is catching the full attention of global investment firms
and governmental policymakers, take a look at the graph below:

The advanced Western economies of the world emerged from the desperate struggle
for survival that was World War II, with a total stated debt burden relative
to their economies that was roughly equal to that seen today. The governments
didn't default on those staggering debts, nor did they resort to hyperinflation,
but they did nonetheless drop their debt burdens relative to GDP by about 70%
over the next three decades - and the very deliberate, calculated use of Financial
Repression was how it was done.

The Mechanics Of Financial Repression

The specifics of financial repression took somewhat different forms in each
of the advanced economies, but they shared four characteristics: 1) inflation;
2) governmental control of interest rates to guarantee negative real rates
of return; 3) compulsory funding of government debt by financial institutions;
and 4) capital controls.

1) Inflation. First and foremost, a government that owes too much money
destroys the value of those debts through destroying the value of the national
currency itself. It doesn't get any more traditional than that from a long-term,
historical perspective. Without inflation, Financial Repression just doesn't
work. Historically, the rate does not have to be high so long as the government
is patient, but the higher the rate of inflation, the more effective financial
repression is at quickly reducing a nation's debt problem.

For example, per the Reinhart and Sbrancia paper, the US and UK used the combination
of inflation and Financial Repression to reduce their debts by an average of
3-4% of GDP per year, while Australia and Italy used higher inflation rates
in combination with Financial Repression to more swiftly drop their outstanding
debt by about 5% per year in GDP terms. As the crisis is much worse this time
around, a substantially higher rate of inflation than that experienced in the
1945 to 1980 period is going to be necessary.

2) Negative Real Interest Rates. In a theoretical world, some would
say that governments can't inflate away debts because the free market would
demand interest rates that compensate them for the higher rate of inflation.
Sadly, this theoretical world has little to do with the past or present real
world.

In the past (and all too likely in the future), there were formal government
regulations that determined the maximum interest rates that could be paid.
As an example, Regulation Q was used in the United States to prevent the payment
of interest on checking accounts, and to put a cap on the payment of interest
on savings accounts.

Regulation Q is long gone, but government control of short term interest rates
has been near absolute over the last decade in the United States. As described
in detail in my article linked below, "Cheating Investors As Official Government
Policy", the Federal Reserve has been openly using its powers to massively
manipulate interest rates in the US, keeping costs low for the government while
cheating tens of millions of investors.

So long as the Federal Reserve keeps control, there is no need for explicit
interest rate controls. However, should the Fed begin to lose control, there
is a strong possibility that interest rate controls will return to the US financial
landscape, with similar regulatory controls being re-imposed in other nations.

3) Involuntary Funding. With this popular component of Financial Repression,
the government establishes reserve or "quality" requirements for financial
institutions that make holding substantial amounts of government debt mandatory
- or at least establish overwhelming incentives for financial institutions
such as banks, savings and loans, credit unions and insurance companies to
do so. Of course, this is publicly phrased as "mandating financial safety",
instead of the more accurate description of mandating the making of investments
at below market interest rates to help overextended governments recover from
financial difficulties.

This involuntary funding is sometimes described as a hidden tax on financial
institutions, but let me suggest that this perspective misses the important
part for you and me. Because all financial institutions operating within
a country are required to effectively subsidize this liquidation of government
debt by accepting less than the rate of inflation on interest rates, the gross
revenues of all financial institutions are depressed, and therefore
less money can be offered to depositors and policyholders. Because financial
institutions make their money not on gross revenues, but on the spread between
what they pay out and take in, then arguably, financial institution profits
are not necessarily reduced, rather the guaranteed annual loss in purchasing
power is passed straight through to depositors and policyholders, i.e. you
and me.

As an example, if a fair inflation-adjusted return were 8%, and the spread
kept by the financial institution was 2%, then we as investors would get 6%.
If financial institutions, through involuntary funding, are uniformly forced
to accept a 3% return on the government debt that must constitute a big portion
of their portfolios, then they still keep 2%, but only pass through 1%. So
the financial institution keeps 2% either way, and we as savers are the ones
who ultimately pay this "hidden tax" in full, by getting a repressed 1% instead
of a fair market 6% return.

4) Capital Controls. In addition to ongoing inflation that destroys
the value of everyone's savings and thereby the value of the government's debts,
while simultaneously making sure that interest rate levels lock in inflation-adjusted
investor losses on a reliable basis, there is another necessary ingredient
to Financial Repression: participation must be mandatory. Or as Reinhart
and Sbrancia phrase it in their description / recipe for Financial Repression,
it requires the "creation and maintenance of a captive domestic audience" (underline
mine).

The government has to make sure that it has controls in place that will keep
the savers in place while the purchasing power of their savings is systematically
and deliberately destroyed. This can take the form of explicit capital and
exchange controls, but there are numerous other, more subtle methods that can
be used to essentially achieve the same results, particularly when used in
combination. This can be achieved through a combined structure of tax and regulatory
incentives for institutions and individuals to keep their investments "domestic" and
in the proper categories for manipulation, as well as punitive tax and regulatory
treatment of those attempting to escape the repression. A carrot and stick
approach in other words, to make sure behavior is controlled.

A Sheep Shearing Instruction Manual

Only a tiny fraction of 1% of the world's population will ever read the original
paper on the IMF website, or detailed analyses thereof. This is dry and boring
stuff when compared to dancing or singing with the stars! Of course, there
are many millions of investors who do read daily or weekly about what is going
on in the financial world - but they and the journalists and bloggers who inform
them usually just follow the ever changing surface of the markets. Again, the
academic papers involved are so dry, boring and fundamental as to seem to have
little relevance for the practical matter of what actions to take today or
this month.

That said, let me suggest that few things are more important for your financial
future than understanding and taking to heart Financial Repression. Because
understanding Financial Repression means pulling the curtain aside and looking
into the inner core of financial reality. It means understanding that much
of what you have read and been taught about investment markets and long term
investments over the last several decades has effectively been a sham.

Investor returns are not - and arguably never have been - fully about people
compounding wealth in free markets, with the collective wisdom of the markets
guaranteeing returns that are based upon rational assessments of the risk.
Rather, investments, investment markets, investor returns and investor behavior
have always been matters of governmental policy; what has varied over the years
has been the form of government policy and how overt the control is.

To fully understand Financial Repression, you need to understand that the
Reinhart and Sbrancia paper is effectively a sheep shearing manual.
You and I, along with the rest of the savers and investors of the world are
the sheep, and the goal of Financial Repression is to shear as much savings
from us as the governments can, year after year, without triggering excessive
unrest, and while keeping us producing the resources that can be politically
redistributed.

The governments of the world are in trouble, and they would prefer to avoid
overt global defaults, hyperinflation, or comprehensive austerity coupled with
massive tax hikes. Each of those routes is highly unpopular, and could lead
to political turmoil that would remove the decision makers and the special
interests who support them from power. A more overt "managed economy" sounds
much more attractive if you are in power, particularly since it has worked
before over a period of decades, with an almost boring lack of political turmoil.

To get out of trouble, the governments have to wipe out most of the value
of their debts, without raising taxes to the degree needed to pay the debts
off at fair value. In other words, they need to cheat the investors. There
is nothing accidental going on here, all that is in question are the particulars
of the strategies for cheating the investors, meaning the collective savers
of the world. Again, the time-honored and traditional form that governments
who incur too much debt use in cheating the investors is to devalue the currency.
Create enough inflation, and tax collections will rise with inflation but the
debts won't, and the savers of the world will be paid back in full with currency
that is worth much less than what was lent to the governments in the first
place.

Except that there is the technicality that in theory, interest rates will
rise above the rate of inflation, so that the value of savings is not eroded.
From the governmental perspective, this is demonstrably a rather absurd theory.
The core point of the Reinhart and Sbrancia paper is that the advanced economies
of the world quite effectively squeezed an average of 3-4% annually of the
value of government debt out of investor real net worth for a period of 35
years, using a wide assortment of overt and less overt controls over interest
rates and investor behavior. Today the mechanism is different in that the central
banks are using massive monetary creation in combination with their regulatory
powers over major banks to control interest rates. However, the bottom line
is that interest rates are absurdly low compared to the inflation and default
risks, and this is because of near complete government control.

One potential sheep shearing problem is that only a minority of us "sheep" directly
own government debt. For maximum sheep shearing efficiency, all of us who lead
productive lives and produce more than we consume (meaning we generate savings)
need to be sheared - and sheared often - whether we buy government bonds or
not. This next step is one of the hardest parts for non-financial professionals
to understand, but through manipulations of capital requirements and the creation
of regulatory incentives and disincentives (that never make the nonfinancial
media) governments can effectively control the investment behavior of financial
institutions, and force the institutions to take on investments that pay less
than the rate of inflation. From which the institutions still take their cut,
and then pass through a still lower real return to their depositors and policyholders.
So wherever we put our money, in whatever financial institution - we get absurdly
low rates of return that help the governments reduce the real value of their
debts.

So we're getting sheared, we've got no choice about it, the government explicitly
plans to keep on shearing us for every remaining year of our lives, and wherever
we go in the meadow, we still get sheared. This leads to the more savvy of
us sheep trying to escape the meadow, and again, this is anticipated in the
Financial Repression structure right from the beginning, with the construction
of capital control fences. Many of the controls on savings leaving the country
have been loosened since 1980. However, these controls have been returning
since 2008, and are just likely to grow stronger as the return to full-on Financial
Repression likely grows more overt.

Leaving The Flock

There is a way to beat Financial Repression. How? Succinctly phrased: the
first step is to stop thinking like a sheep and start thinking like a shepherd.
Stop acting like a sheep, and change your financial profile so that it aligns
with the objectives of the "shepherds", the governments of the world.

Instead of fighting the governments of the world - position yourself so that
the higher the rate of inflation and the greater the destruction of the value
of money - the greater your real wealth grows, in inflation-adjusted terms.

The fundamentals of Financial Repression are for governments to pin down their
citizens, force them to take interest rates that are below the government-induced
rate of inflation, and make it almost impossible for an older investor with
a conventional financial profile to escape. This is a time to fight the good
fight politically - but not with your savings or your future standard of living.

Instead, align your financial interests with your government and the governments
of the world. So that the more outrageous the government actions become in
squeezing the value of investor savings from their populations - the more reliable
the compounding of your wealth becomes for you, and the greater the growth
in your financial security.

So how does one stop thinking and acting like a sheep? This can be amazingly
simple, or it can be impossibly difficult. It is you and the way your mind
works that will determine whether thinking like a shepherd will become simple
or be impossible. How open are you - truly - to changing the way you view investments
and financial security? Can you change the personal paradigm that may have
shaped your worldview for decades?

View the investment world in the way in which we have all been programmed,
and maintaining wealth over the coming years of inflation and Financial Repression
is going to be extraordinarily difficult, particularly in after-tax and after-inflation
terms. Because everything around you really is set up for sheep shearing. That's
not a conspiracy theory - that is how the world really worked between 1945
and 1980, and policymakers around the world likely see variants of this proven
debt reduction methodology as their only way out.

The Great Sheep Shearing of the early 21st century is already in process (we're
just using some different names and methods this time around), and it will
likely succeed with the overwhelming majority of investors - much like it did
before, only on a more thorough basis, because the problems are far larger
this time around. Whether Financial Repression will successfully prevent a
meltdown is a different question, but regardless, the attempt is still likely
to dominate markets as well as government regulations and policy.

Your alternative is to accept the world as it is, take personal responsibility
for your own outcome, and educate yourself. You can seek to fundamentally change
your paradigm, turn it upside down - and personally turn that same world of
high inflation and Financial Repression into a target-rich environment of wealth
building opportunities.

Daniel R. Amerman is a financial futurist, author, speaker, and consultant
with over 20 years of financial industry experience. He is a Chartered Financial
Analyst (CFA), and holds MBA and BSBA degrees in Finance from the University
of Missouri. He has spent seven years developing a large, unique and intertwined
body of work, that is devoted to using the foundation principles of economics
and finance to try to understand the retirement of the Baby Boom from the perspective
of the people who will be paying for it.

Since 1990, Mr. Amerman has provided specialized quantitative consulting services
to financial institutions, with a particular emphasis on structured finance.
Previously, Mr. Amerman was vice president of an institutional investment bank,
with responsibilities including research, synthetic securities, and capital
market originations.

Two of Mr. Amerman's previous books on finance were published by major business
publishers. "COLLATERALIZED MORTGAGE OBLIGATIONS, Unlock The Secrets Of Mortgage
Derivatives", was published by McGraw-Hill in 1995. Mr. Amerman is also the
author of "MORTGAGE SECURITIES: The High-Yield Alternative To CDs, The Low-Risk
Alternative To Stocks", which was published by Probus Publishing (now a McGraw-Hill
subsidiary) in 1993. Advertised by the publisher as a professional "bestseller" for
four quarters, an Asian edition was sold as well.

Mr. Amerman has spoken at numerous professional seminars and conferences nationwide,
for a variety of sponsors including New York University, the Institute for
International Research, and many others. After the publication of his prior
books, he acted as keynote speaker at a number of banking related conferences
over the next several years.

This article contains the ideas and opinions of the author. It is a conceptual
exploration of general economic principles, and how people may - or may not
- interact in the future. As with any discussion of the future, there cannot
be any absolute certainty. What this article does not contain is specific investment,
legal or any other form of professional advice. If specific advice is needed,
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