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Friday, February 20, 2015

FINALS UPDATE:Scandal (3.3) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.9) made it a full night of 0.2 gains for TGIT. The Big Bang Theory (4.5) and Two and a Half Men (3.2) were also up a tenth.

The second long-running series finale in as many nights went a lot better for CBS, as twelve-year vet Two and a Half Men (3.1) spiked by nearly 50% week-to-week. It wasn't quite a How I Met Your Mother-sized spike, but it was pretty close. This was the show's highest rating in the two seasons since it lost The Big Bang Theory as a lead-in.

The network had more middling results in the 8/7c hour. The Big Bang Theory (4.4) didn't see any real benefit from the events later in the night, and it led into a 3.1 premiere for The Odd Couple. While this was about 10% above Mom's high point in the slot, it will take a very good post-premiere hold for this show to settle in as a Mom-sized player. Considering a two-week March Madness hiatus is coming in just a few weeks, that will be difficult to say the least.

Week three of NBC's all-drama Thursday saw a big 8/7c drop from The Slap (0.8), but The Blacklist (1.7) was even against increased CBS competition and Allegiance (0.9) rebounded a bit. It's not a major surprise that the shows held up this week since last week seemed like such a ridiculous underachievement, but let's see if they've got a rebound in them going forward.

TGIT had another particularly stellar night, as Grey's Anatomy (2.5), Scandal (3.2) and How to Get Away with Murder (2.8) were all up week-to-week.

Fox was the only network that really seemed to suffer, as Backstrom (0.9) gave back last week's rebound and then some. American Idol (2.1) also hit a season low.

FULL TABLE:

Info

Show

Timeslot

True

A18-49

Skew

Last

LeLa

Rank

y2y

TLa

Ty2y

Grey's Anatomy

2.5

39%

+9%

+0.2

n/a

4/12

n/a

+9%

+194%

2.7

Scandal

3.3

44%

+6%

+0.2

+0.2

3/13

n/a

+5%

+267%

3.2

How To Get Away With Murder

2.9

42%

+7%

+0.2

+0.2

7/13

n/a

+7%

+346%

2.7

ABC:

+7%

+263%

The Big Bang Theory

4.5

33%

-2%

-0.1

n/a

8/15

n/a

+114%

+73%

4.4

The Odd Couple

3.1

29%

n/a

n/a

n/a

1/1

n/a

+48%

+72%

2.6

Two and a Half Men

3.2

30%

+52%

+1.1

+1.0

1/15

n/a

+68%

+137%

2.9

Elementary

1.5

23%

+7%

+0.1

+1.5

1/15

n/a

+3%

+36%

1.5

CBS:

+56%

+83%

The Slap

0.8

26%

-27%

-0.3

n/a

2/2

n/a

-27%

-79%

1.1

The Blacklist

1.7

28%

+0%

+0.0

-0.3

10/11

n/a

-0%

-68%

2.0

Allegiance

0.9

34%

+29%

+0.2

+0.0

2/3

n/a

+20%

-84%

1.1

NBC:

-4%

-77%

American Idol Thu

2.1

30%

-9%

-0.2

n/a

7/7

-13%

-9%

-14%

2.3

Backstrom

0.9

32%

-25%

-0.3

-0.2

5/5

n/a

-28%

-10%

1.0

Fox:

-15%

-13%

The Vampire Diaries

0.7

63%

+0%

+0.0

n/a

10/15

n/a

+0%

+180%

0.8

Reign

0.4

49%

+0%

+0.0

+0.0

4/15

n/a

+14%

+100%

0.5

CW:

+5%

+144%

Big5:

+12%

-3%

KEY (click to expand)

A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

NBC pulled a Beauty and The Beast, awful but steady. 2.5 Men had an Office-esque final season and spike.

FOX suffered, OK for Idol, Backstrom is playing with me, does it air its 13 episode order? Sometimes I believe it since Rake was at 0.8 by episode four, but Backstrom is at 0.9 by episode five, maybe it can go for like 9-10 weeks.

Now I'm curious about how @omabin's timeslot upgrade/downgrade formula works for in-season moves. Especially considering Mom, who goes from originals to repeats as a lead-in and Blacklist, going from The Voice to The Slap, it's as bad as trading Voice for Marry Me.

Especially considering I doubt Thursdays at 9 is that much higher viewed than Mondays at 10. It is pretty much as much Penthouse to Poorhouse as you can get. I don't think a 1.7 out of a .8 is too much worse than a 2.4 out of a 3.1. Especially considering ABC and CBS are so much stronger here. But the 2.4 sure felt better

This will probably go underreported, but I think Elementary did pretty badly. A 1.5 with THAT lead in!? It grew from the Crazy Ones' 1.7 as late as March last year. Maybe this'll get CBS to stop bending over backwards to protect it. The show doesn't really benefit from good lead ins and isn't that hurt from bad ones.

Well, to put it into context. Last night ABC averaged a 2.83 preliminary. So far this season, the only other times in which that has happened: - 7 other TGIT nights. No other ABC night. - CBS only managed to do it twice this season which were the two opening Mondays with the inflated early Scorpion episodes (and in the first case, the double pump of TBBT)- FOX did it twice on Sundays (one of them being the big crossover episode), once on Thursday for the Idol premiere and yes, every Wednesday since Empire has premiered.- NBC did it for the first 8 Mondays of the season thanks to the voice and the first two Tuesdays, also due to the voice (double pumped). Also, the Saturday Night Live thing.

And of course this is not even mentioning the competitive night that happened last nigh with CBS big night and all. So yes, I think TGIT did really great, I don't think there is any borderline in here!

Where do you think NBC should place The Blacklist next season? Same night different time (10pm)? Same time and night? Or move it to another night? I don't see any major rebound in its ratings at this point wherever it goes. This Thursday move will be analyzed ad nauseam by all of the armchair network execs out there. An improvement from a barren wasteland for sure on Thursdays but is The Blacklist a strong enough tent pole to support whatever bookends it? By keeping it on Thursday next season, will Thursday Night Football decimate it early on? I would move The Blacklist to a 10pm slot on some other night next season. In the next two weeks, I would pull The Slap and try something else there. NBC Thursdays remain a disaster, albeit an improved one at 9pm. The Blacklist move to Thursdays has accelerated its ratings decline a bit more than NBC was expecting, I imagine.

I'm surprised The Blacklist held against 2.5 Men. Those shows plus Backstrom all feel like they go after a similar, slightly-older audience especially compared against Scandal specifically and TGIT in general. That's really the genius of ABC's strategy for Thursdays this season, lasering in on a specific demo with shows that also have some big-tent appeal. That's partly why (preview to my comments in the next edition of BC/WC) I'm skeptical about American Crime replacing How to Get Away with Murder. Secrets and Lies feels like a better tonal fit with Grey's & Scandal, but American Crime would stick out even worse on Sundays with Once Upon a Time as a lead-in.

With no meaningful separation between The Slap and Allegiance I don't know which one, if either, gets to play out the string. NBC will want to dislodge The Slap to better help The Blacklist, but do they feel like creating a domino effect by also ditching Allegiance?

Going back to TGIT, Grey's Anatomy is continuing to make the case for being the unsung hero of the season. If it can maintain this level through DST, that would be incredible.

CBS had a very good night, minus Elementary. I expected a season high with the highest-rated lead-in it'll get all season.

Well Spot's TRUE has The Blacklist hovering around 2.2-2.3 on Mondays this fall with its low being a 2.1 point. Last week, he has it at 1.92. So there was a decline somehow. But I would argue that last week was a larger than usual under achievement. We have to see what Spot's true says about last night but unless viewing levels spiked, I would guess that between the even lower Slap and the spike in competition coming from the Men finale, the blacklist may have been able to hit a 2.1 or so in TRUE.

Backstrom staying in 0.8-0.9 range is the worst scenario possible for guessing.At 0.6-0.7 I'd be sure they'd dump Backstrom to Saturday (or Friday after Glee ends).At 1.0-1.1 I would be pretty sure they would let it run out (especially if Fox is planning to save some Bones episodes from this season for next fall).

With 0.8-0.9 I guess they will wait and see. So we also must wait and see.

I agree with you American Crime, and also on Grey's Anatomy being the unsung hero of the season. What it is doing on that slot is incredible. I don't believe it can hold up this well after DST but even then, it is giving itself a nice buffer to fall.

I don't think CBS had a very good night though. TBBT was meh for its standards and The Odd Couple has just an okay number. Elementary did awful like you said. So only Men did very good in my book.

You are absolutely right, this Blacklist's 1.7 is "stronger" than last week's 1.7, and it should translate into 2.1 True, 2.0 at worse.But we don't know which one is more true, the weak 1.7 from last week, or the solid 1.7 from last night.To make things worse, we probably must wait 14 days to learn it, because next week HTGAWM season finale might distort picture, and only 2 weeks from now The Blacklist will finally air against its regular competition.

I am not sure if Murder will be that much of a factor. It didn't spike that much for the fall finale and I thought there was more hype by then (though this is always very subjective of course). It did a 2.9 last night so even if it spikes, I doubt it pulls a number significantly higher than what Scandal has been doing there, so I expect it to be a wash. Could be wrong though.

But yes, I agree on your main point that we don't know which 1.7 is the real one.

That's an okay start for The Odd Couple, let's see how it does going forward. I don't really buy into the negative reviews meaning much though, as CBS comedies tend to be somewhat critic-proof. Just look at TBBT, which got negative reviews when it premiered.

Neither of them fit tbh, S&L is just another murder mystery remake only with Ryan Philippe (sp?) this time around, it's more like the Gracepoint remake than it is Shonda's soapy hits. ABC just picked 1 of their shows as their favorite to get the best slot and gave the other the post OuaT slot.

Probably The Slap given that it's a miniseries so it's more likely to play out, most likely it should move though.

Blacklist will stay on Thursdays. NBC made the bed, so they have to sleep in it. But I don't think it should lead into something new. Put in PD or SVU. At 8, put the NPH show there. It'll face Big Bang only 4 times since it's a 10-episode series, so comedy competition will be almost nonexistent for a good while.

All in all, it doesn't matter much.1. Greenblat's stupidity is already more than proven.2. The Blacklist is already renewed for 3rd season, and even if it wasn't from Sony, for this kind of show it means 100% sure renewal for 4th season.

If The Blacklist is moved from Thursday, where could it go? I now think NBC won't give it a post-Voice slot again so Monday is out. That leaves two options:

Tuesday: The Voice | Chicago Fire | The BlacklistORWednesday: The Blacklist | Law & Order: SVU | Chicago PD (admittedly SVU and The Blacklist could be swapped if NBC would rather have SVU face Empire)

But let's say NBC keeps The Blacklist on Thursday. That's probably more likely since it's given NBC the best pulse the night's had since The Office left the air. The network would keep it at 9:00 just because it's gives the 10:00 show the chance at an upside with something that would be stronger than an unproven newbie, The Biggest Loser, or Celebrity Apprentice (in the case of the latter, I expect that next season would come back down to Earth as demonstrated in its later-run episodes especially if moved to Thursdays). That would result in something like...

NPH Variety Hour | The Blacklist | Drama (either Chicago Med if they want to attempt to recreate 1997 through science or magic by internally calling it "E/R Part II," The Night Shift if they want to give Med the Monday slot but Shift shows enough promise, or The Mysteries of Laura if they don't really care but just don't want to throw a drama newbie into the morass).

I don't hate the idea of SVU on Thursdays at 10 to a least give Blacklist some companionship. But for that to happen, a domino effect is needed in a big way that ultimately ends with Undateable being a success. My very complex logic is this:1 SVU can only end if there is something else that can become the Wednesday center piece2 The only show that I can see working in that role is Chicago Fire3 There is nothing decent on the pipeline to replace Fire so they would need a new drama there.4. Problem is that they would need a decent lead-in for said new drama or else they would doom it right away. If Undateable is successful, they can shift it to 8h30, put something new at 8, and hope that Undateable doesn't loose enough strength to help the 10pm newbie (which should of course be launched after the voice and remain that way for the first 3 or so weeks)

(Side note: The Night Shift is an important variable as depending on its strength, could be an alternative solution for either 2 or 3)

In the context of how CBS has done with entertainment programming on Thursdays this season generally and this week specifically, I think it's a win. Admittedly a lot of that is wrapped up in a series finale, but the Eye needs to take it where it can get it. TBBT (r) | Mom will be better than 2.5 Men | The McCarthy's, but I expect the reruns to start sagging in the ratings as they stay on the sked a la Men's final Charlie Sheen season and bring other shows down with it.

Secrets at least shares the commonality of being a murder mystery like HTGAWM. And it feels more soap-y than American Crime, a show that looks like it wants to be Crash: The Series.

I agree that The Slap should play out the string but do so at 10:00 to put something like Hollywood Game Night or Grimm at 8:00 to help the Blacklist. At least it has more (or any) critics in its corner than Allegiance.

I think eventually NBC will pull both, but not already this week. Probably they want to test if either can rebound somewhat thanks to ABC/CBS lineups being changed a bit soon. I expect both to actually drop a bit, and pulled after... I have no idea when.

Going forward I expect the scheduling strategy for Elementary to become, "Where can we ride this show out to get the most money?" A Friday move would mean a Hawaii Five-O | Elementary/Blue Bloods night (take your pick of which drama goes at 9:00 and 10:00), while Sunday could mean 60 Minutes | Madam Secretary | Elementary | The Good Wife (a situation I posit since next season's probably the last that the creators want to do for The Good Wife while CBS could try squeezing another season out of Elementary by giving it the neutral-at-best-on-NFL-overrun-nights slot).

CBS did bad last night. Despite having both series premiere and series finale, CBS averaged mere 2.8, which is only few ticks above their usual average on Thursdays with original TBBT anchoring the night. For example, CBS scored 2.3 few weeks ago versus a whole ratings point more of competition (TGIT midseason premiere, Parenthood finale), and airing no "events" that night:

S&L is pretty much a run of a mill murder mystery remake, the only thing that stands out is that it has Ryan in it. It doesn't seem that soapy like Shonda's shows or even Empire, like I said before, it feels more like Gracepoint.

HTGAWM is definitely much different in that it's soapier in vein of the other TGIT shows and it helps that it's got Shonda stamped all over it despite not being a showrunner. Viola is definitely way more appealing than Ryan is, well imo since that's what drew me in along with it having Shonda's name plastered all over the promos.

AC definitely feels like Crash 2.0. Neither of them really fit, ABC just picked and chose what they wanted for which spot.

I think they would get the best results on Fridays, but then I don't know what to throw to Sundays at 10 (I would personally put the Good Wife there, but if they didn't for CSI, I can't see them doing it for anything else). I'm guessing Person of Interest would get the awful slot in that situation. which would be a poor decision in my mind as Person of Interest is a stronger show. But WB vs. CBS is clearly WB's loss.

Due to the gritty intensity and realism of American Crime it would be a challenge placing it anywhere on ABC's schedule. It's one of those dramas that almost feels too good for broadcast television. Assuming ABC's programming department delves much deeper into demographic data than just age and sex to make these placement decisions, my instinct would tell me that the strong racial theme of American Crime and its uncanny similarity to some recent real life events, makes it a better fit with Rhyme's Thursday dramas than anywhere else due to the strong African American demographic watching both Scandal and How To Get Away With Murder. American Crime has some incredible pedigree attached to it both behind and in front of the camera that should also appeal to the Scandal and Murder demographic which also tends to be higher income and better educated. The question remains whether American Crime might be too realistic and intense as a weekly series. Both Scandal and Murder move at a highly caffeinated pace, with outrageous plot twists, leaving little time for viewers to catch their breath. I suspect both American Crime and Secrets and Lies unfold in more conventional ways with much slower pacing but I might be wrong. But to your point, Chris, both American Crime and Secrets and Lies pose a challenge to ABC, not unlike Agents Of SHIELD, in finding some highly compatible real estate to share.

Meh on POI being the stronger show. According to Spot's TRUE, they are the same (or Elementary is slightly stronger) and I tend to agree. POI has a very decent lead-in and airs against a competent NBC show and an ABC flop. Elementary has been airing after a low rated and incompatible lead-in but against an ABC monster hit and an okay NBC show (Parethood). Today is not a good day to argue for this given its horrible performance last night but I don't think there is a difference between the two anymore in strength either way (which is the same as saying I doubt POI would have done significantly better if it aired post Men last night).

So do they do Elementary | H50 | BB and MS | TGW | POI or POI | H50 | BB and MS | TGW | Elementary? I think it's a wash and doesn't really matter to be honest.

I disagree with the premise of not using the voice to try comedies. I know there is a horrible track record but if it has been this bad with the voice, what hope is there sans the voice? I know you can give me the argument that the voice is just being wasted and I can sympathize with it but at this point they really need it to create a comedy hit. I understand all the cons, I just think the pros are bigger here.

Other than that, your idea is interesting of using PD and not the blacklist to launch a new drama. And it is the first time I am seeing the idea of PD going to 9pm floating around. I don't dislike it but I do have one caveat which is that ABC and CBS are both very likely to have newbies at 10pm Wednesdays as well. That might not be a bad thing since statistics tell us that so many newbies flop, but the situation may not be as easy competition wise as the current Stalker-Nashville configuration makes it look like. This being said, I still don't dislike your idea, although yes, I would prefer Fire as the centerpiece but Undateable needs to work for that to happen. A possible alternative idea would be Night Shit on Tuesdays and Fire taking Wednesdays at 8pm which would support PD better hence also supporting the 10pm newbie better. But the problem is that little show called Empire. I don't think Fire should be forced to go up against it.

Comedies ABC launched out of Modern Family? All dead and buried.Comedies ABC launched on Tuesday? Mostly dead, but Last Man Standing is at 86+ episodes, and The Goldbergs is now virtually sure to last for 88+ episodes.

i don't think The Voice lead-in (or any other lead-in) can make hit out of crappy comedy. I do think good comedies survive even with lousy lead-in.

Keep this in mind that I'm fine with PD over SVU. I simply added SVU into the mix because it's a tough slot, and the latter is closer to ending than the former. It fills a death slot for two or so seasons and its impact of being gone will be far less deadly than say, Office's departure.

Pretty much agree. Though I also support PD going to Thursday. If PD goes to Thursday:Tues: 8: Comedies (ABC Tues comedies weaker, Voice lead-in not wasted, potential halo, if both or one looks good, better lead-in for season 2/3.)9: Voice10: Night Shift (Like Fire, would be used to make "sophomore" stronger for the future)

Wed:8: SVU (Yes, against Empire, but note that it hit 1.7 and 1.6 when Criminal Minds was preempted)9: Chicago Fire: (I don't see it having crossover with Minds since Fire's more soap-oriented, and isn't a crime procedural)10: Chicago Med: (No medical procedural, CBS 10PM show likely weaker than Minds, ABC show likely a serial, behind mothership).

My personal belief is Elementary is the weakest drama on CBS. I homestly believe all the bubbles: NCIS: LA, POI, The Good Wife, Madam Secretary, CSI, Hawaii 5-0, and Blue Bloods are stronger. But that doesn't matter because its a CBS production with a syndi deal. And CBS has lots of syndication farms!

I believe 2-hour episodes are counted as one episode unless there's a ratings difference. So Modern Family's premiere last year counted as one, but Fresh Off the Boat has individual episodes. But I could be wrong, so if someone can correct me, I'll eat my words.

But, if we assume the finale will count as one episode, Murder will have to get a 3.3 or higher...that can't be too hard.

I don't think it is leadin dependent, but it will be the first time without the Scandal leadin. GA is still a decent leadin, around 7 tenths weaker than Scandal. The competition isn't that tough: league average Blacklist, flop Backstrom, a comedy repeat and Mom which shouldn't have much crossover. I guess higher viewing levels should cancel out the leadin effect.

I think it not airing behind Scandal for the first time all season will hurt it.

Sure, Grey's is likely still very compatible with Murder (if Grey's is compatible w/ Scandal, is compatible with Murder) but the real question is.. Can Murder build on Grey's enough to break the 3.2 threshold to get it on an average of 3? ABC will probably promote HTGAWM relentlessly during the Oscars but is that enough<?

Idk how ABC will do it, but TGIT is a pretty smart promotion tactic. Maybe it will help to incorporate American Crime into TGIT, but it looks pretty different from the other Shonda shows. Now that I think of it, a TGIT promo with American Crime sounds really weird.

Not good. Like you said, people tuning in early into for TAAHM.I see it at bellow 2.5 already next week, and bellow 2.0 after March Madness.Either cancelled, either Millers 2.0 because TOC is CBS owned.

It depends on how they sell ads.For example, there's Football Night America Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 simply because for each segment ads are sold at different prices (= NBC guarantees different number of A18-49 eyeballs to advertisers). Same goes for Red Carpet Part 1, Part 2... or whatever.

ABC will order either 2-hours ratings from Nielsen, either two separated 1-hour ratings, depending on how their sales department was selling ads space inside those 2 hours of HTGAWM. Which we don't know, and at the end of the day, is not important for us.

Why would it get hurt? The competition is slightly better, but we're going off a meh-performing Parenthood, a disastrous Allegiance and a poor Elementary. Even then, the closest competition is Big Bang's leftovers and Blacklist, and they'll average 1.9 at worst. Grey's is still a good lead-in. And the finale will probably bring more interest, like what the midseason finale did. Frankly my dear, you're a bit too nervous there.