November brought enough rainfall to merit starting up this year's monthly reports of rainfall at Canebas weather station. Here is the first graph of the season:

After a dry start to the season, 2017 was the second wettest November observed at Canebas station at: 4.36". That works out to 120% of a normal November. However, the preceding dry months resulted in only 86% of the rainfall normally received through the end of November. It is definitely too early in the season to guess what sort of a winter we might expect. Nonetheless, at the moment I'm observing more high pressure ridges than I would prefer during the time when we need the rain.

Interesting report. In the western US we are heading into winter with lakes and reservoirs at the highest level they have been at in December for at least the past 5 years. Keeping our collective fingers crossed.

There is absolutely no chance of rain through the end of the month, so there is no point in putting off reporting the bad news. Canebas weather station received an extremely unlucky 0.13" of rain for December (3.3mm). December is normally one of our wettest months of this works out to be only 4% of normal for the month. This is quite obvious on the graph:

Not surprisingly the cumulative numbers are also very grim. By the end of the month we will have only received 48% of a normal season's rainfall through the end of December.

Only good thing may be a reduced probability of massive fires next year. Assuming there is enough fodder/tinder left to burn...

Unfortunately, I don't think the Winter rainfall has all that much to do with the Summer wildfires. The critical issue is how hot and dry the Summer becomes. This past year's Summer was very hot and dry and that definitely allowed the fires to grow quickly.

No chance of rain tomorrow, so I can get this report out a day early. January was a far cry from December:

January also started out dry, but the second half of the month brought a change in the weather pattern with even one atmospheric river event that caused the horrible landslide in Santa Barbara. As a result, Canebas weather station got 87% of the normal rainfall for January. Alas, the string of preceding dry months left the cumulative total at only 66% of normal through the end of January.

Worst still, February looks to be dry for at least the first half once more. So drought still looms . . . .

The good news is that it did rain this February at Canebas Weather station. The bad news is that the first rain was on the 26th. Between that storm and some rain picked up before yesterday midnight we ended up with 0.77" (19.6 mm) of rain. That's only 16% of a normal February as the graph shows:

Still that small amount of rain was sufficient to keep the cumulative rainfall above 1/2 at 54% of normal through the end of February. Alas, no matter what rainfall happens this Spring, it is clear we are heading back into another drought year.Oh well, . . . . . . Edouard

Most of the surrounding area where I live is in Severe Drought. My son just visited Cape Town, South Africa, on a business trip and reported that city is in serious danger of running our of water this year.

Most of the surrounding area where I live is in Severe Drought. My son just visited Cape Town, South Africa, on a business trip and reported that city is in serious danger of running our of water this year.

What is heartbreaking is that there is nothing new in these situations. Even if there were no climate change occurring, tree-ring and other data has made it frightfully clear that as little as 1000 years ago there were droughts in the Americas which were far more extreme than anything modern humans have experienced. Extreme weather is the current explanation for the downfall of the Maya. It is also believed to have caused the fall of the old kingdom of Egypt and other civilizations in the region. The science is indisputable, modern societies have not made realistic preparations of the extremes of nature that are by our understanding completely normal - never mind what changes may be due to greenhouse gases.

George Santayana is famous for saying: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." However, our modern world has taken on it's own responsibilities for its preservation. Today we trust science to safeguard our future. We don't cast our fortune by seeking the favor of the gods (or God.) If we cannot muster the discipline and responsibility to act as science clearly demands that we must - what hope is there?

March continued the feast or famine pattern that has occurred this winter. Following a mostly dry February, a number of very wet systems brought 6.29" of rain or 154% of a normal March. This can be seen on the graph:

That was enough to rain our cumulative total to the end of March to 71%. That is considerably better than the situation at the end of February. It appears we'll get at least some rain during the first part of April, so perhaps we will end up the season with sufficient rain to avoid renewed rationing.

April started out as a continuation of March with one more very wet atmospheric river storm. After that, we had a series of relatively weak storms lasting until about mid-April. That was enough to give us 2.93" of rain which is 180% of a normal April. This can be seen on the graph:

That was enough to rain our cumulative total to the end of April to 79%. That should be close enough to a normal season to avoid draconian water restrictions. Of course this late in the season this could be all the rain we'll see this year. In that scenario we would end up about 6" short of a nominal 25" of normal rainfall. That would be 76% of normal. That is probably still sufficient to avoid hard-core water restrictions.

On the other hand, the creeks are drying up very fast. Our bird feeders are attracting creatures like raccoons that normally don't run out of water until at least June. For those things completely in the wild, it will be definitely a dry and hard summer. If previous years are any indication, it will also a relatively hot summer as well.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, there are already very serious drought conditions in Utah, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Several years of below average precipitation is taking a grim toll in large portions of these states. Looks like California, Oregon, and Nevada are likely to be next on the list. If so, that's more than 25% of the lower 48 states land mass. Yikes.