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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals MLB Expert Picks

Jose Fernandez (4-0, 2.30 ERA) takes the mound for the Miami Marlins (60-81) as they meet Tanner Roark (4-4, 4.41 ERA) and the Washington Nationals (71-69) in the second of a three-game series at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 2-1 and Miami leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 12 and will air on FSFL and MASN.

In his most recent outing, Fernandez pitched 5.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out six and walking one in a 6-3 loss to the Braves. Justin Bour (.255, 32 Rs, 16 HRs, 53 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. The Nationals were unsuccessful the last time Roark pitched. He went 4.1 innings, allowing one run, striking out one and walking three in a 5-2 loss to the Braves. Ryan Zimmerman (.249, 43 Rs, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs, 1 SB) has been hitting the ball well, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run.

Miami is a -169 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Marlins are 24-28 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,740. They have disappointing records of 10-16 as the favorite and 23-34 SU within their division. The Marlins rank second in the majors in extra base hits with 338. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 102 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball.

Switching gears, the Nationals come into this game with a weak win percentage of .342 when playing as the underdog (13-25) and an overall money line of -1,444. Over the last 10 games, they were winless as the underdog with a 0-2 record and 5-5 SU. Washington has been playing better lately, averaging 6.5 runs per game, more than their season average of 4.4. Washington has an eye for the strike zone on the road, ranking 3.2 in the NL with third walks per game. Playing against NL East foes really brings the best out of the Washington pitchers. They allow 3.5 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 2.2 walks per game, good for tops in the NL.

The Marlins have mostly come out on top against the Nationals in their previous 13 games this season, earning a 7-6 record. This game will feature Roark (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have a 47-64 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Nationals will be the right-hander Fernandez. They sport a 53-52 record against righties.

Predictions: SU Winner - Mia, O/U - Over

Notes

The Marlins are 24-34 against their divisional rivals, while the Nationals are 33-25 against their division.

Miami has won 41% (29-42) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Washington has won 52% (34-32) of its games when taking a late lead.

Having scored one run in their last game, the Nationals are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 21-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.

When they are outhit, the Nationals are 11-57. The Marlins have a 13-53 record when opponents outhit them.

Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 103 this season. Washington ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 151.

Miami and Washington both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Miami sits at sixth with 8.63 hits per game and Washington ranks 10th with 8.53.

Ranking 29th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.686). Washington ranks in the top half at 11th with an OPS of .731.

When the Nationals allow at least one home run, they are 30-43. When the Marlins allow one or more homers, they have a 27-52 record.

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