North county Senators see troubled road ahead for state Republicans

The outcome of a highly contested downstate state Senate race Friday could be of big political significance for the north country.

Democrat Cecilia F. Tkaczyks victory by just 19 votes in a court-ordered recount in the 46th District means that New York Democrats have a 33-30 majority in the Senate counting party labels.

But state Sen. Joseph A. Griffo, R-Rome, said this isnt the calculus that matters.

Mr. Griffo said the Senate is made up of three conferences: 27 members of the Democratic conference, five members of the Independent Democratic Conference and 30 members of the Republican conference, and one rogue Democrat who is conferencing with the Republicans.

This is how crazy this gets, Mr. Griffo said of the Senates political math. The Republicans still have the most (people) in one conference.

More importantly, the Republicans and the IDC have amended the rules of the Senate and formed a coalition leadership.

But he said it doesnt bode well for future years for Republicans, who were in power for last years Senate redistricting.

The next election will tell it all, Mr. Griffo said. It will all come down to 2014.

This was a disappointment and a surprise this year, Mr. Griffo said of Ms. Tkaczyks win.

Sen. Elizabeth OC. Little, R-Queensbury, said that while she isnt positive how Mrs. Tkaczyks win will affect the state, I think when youre in a two-year election cycle youre always working on the next election. (Republicans) may be able to gain more members and still work with the (IDC) coalition.

Mr. Griffo agreed that the ground game is crucial going forward.

You have got to look at everything, Mr. Griffo said. Youve got to be realistic and look at the demographics in the state. And youve got to look at your strategy.

Mr. Griffo said that over the past two years since Republicans took control of the Senate, We cut taxes, cut spending and had an on-time budget. There were a lot of good things. If you were grading the GOP conference, we would have gotten a good grade.

But New York is a dark blue state, Mr. Griffo said, and going forward, the Republican Party, even in upstate New York, is going to have to fight a tough battle to maintain power.

For upstate, where many Republicans draw support, the fight is also about representation.

For the upstate calculus, its going to be terrible if you dont have that balance [of Republicans in the Senate and Democrats in the Assembly] in the Legislature. The advocacy (for upstate) was from the Republican Senate, Mr. Griffo said.

Mr. Griffo said the current coalition leadership may continue to be the secret to Republican success.

I dont see the IDC going away, he said.

He said the next two years will be a test of the coalitions ability to function, and also a crucial period in which the Republicans have to prove to the state that their leadership is valuable.

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