Are Finland’s Schools Really the Gold Standard?

It is a given that at some point during almost any discussion about school reform, a reference to Finland’s education system will arise. Finland’s education model in recent years has been championed by educational progressives for a variety of reasons. The Finnish education system has, for instance, become synonymous with being highly personalised and student-focused. Its strong results in education league tables such as PISA has also been touted as proof of its success. However, a closer look at Finland’s more recent recent PISA standings and a contextualisation of its education system and reforms raises questions about the popular narrative of its education system.

Firstly, despite much fanfare to the contrary, Finland does not have ‘the best education system in the world’ in terms of achievement in maths or science. While this may have been true at one point, it has been declining in terms of reading, maths and science scores since around 2005. Once at the very top of the rankings, Finland has fallen several places in recent years. In 2012 for instance, Finland ranked 6th in the world in science and outside the top 10 in terms of reading. Boys in particular have fallen behind in recent years in Finland relative to girls. This is by no means exclusive to Finland – this is a trend that has emerged in recent years across the world. However, the gap between boys and girls in recent PISA results in Finland is larger than in similar countries.

A recent study from Helsinki University raises further doubts about Finland’s highly progressive educational system. The study focuses on the effects of sweeping reforms enacted in 2016. Among these changes was a new digital and phenomenon-based curriculum. Research has found that the increased use of digital technology in classrooms correlated with lower achievement. Students would often become distracted by the technology and use if for reasons other than schoolwork.

Phenonemon-based learning, which de-emphasised subject-based learning and encouraged collaborative, project-based learning was also scrutinised by the report. This form of learning has much in common with inquiry-based learning which is popular in many countries’ school systems across the world. While phenomenon-based learning is useful for more advanced students, for students who are less academically gifted or do not have strong support from home, this form of learning is not optimal. The disparity between gifted and non-gifted students taught through phenomenon-based learning has been particularly pronounced in maths and the sciences.

There are also issues about the data, or lack thereof, specifically tying the high scores Finland attained in the early 2000s to its much-vaunted progressive education agenda. Tim Oates, writing for Cambridge Assessment points out some of these issues. In his piece ‘Finnish Fairy Stories’ he argues the wrong conclusions were drawn about Finnish school success from ‘education tourists’ from across the world in the early 21st century. Where much of the confusion about what lessons to take from arises from the fact these education tourists focused on the education system in 2001, when they first began to arrive in Finland – not on the previous decades, where the reforms which made Finnish education among the best in the world were enacted. The nature of these reforms was, contrary to popular belief, quite conservative and traditional. For example, Finnish education in the 20th century was highly centralised and did not have much autonomy for either teacher or student. Instead, a clear top-down structure prevailed, with a standardised curriculum and consensus on how to teach it.

A lack of empirical data to back up common assertions about Finnish education also complicates what lessons to take from the Finnish system. According to the Economic Policy Institute, these claims do not stand up to scrutiny. Instead, myriad socioeconomic and cultural factors are primarily the cause of the rise of Finnish education. In many cases, the singling out of ‘best practices’ as the cause of Finland’s educational success are a case study of confirmation bias – researchers and policymakers seeking out policies they are already likely to support.

Apart from the policy issues, there is also the issue of attempting to replicate Finland’s unique culture and attitude toward education. Finland is a highly homogenous nation with a relatively small population. There is a high degree of consensus within society about many aspects of Finnish education. Finns also have a relatively high level of trust in institutions such as schools relative to much of the rest of the world. Finland’s education system, though declining, is still above average by most measures. It would be unwise to dismiss it altogether. There are some things which other countries can replicate from the Finnish experience. One of these is to ensure that resources are distributed equitably between schools. Reducing the gap between rich and poor schools in terms of resourcing has demonstrable, significant effects on educational achievement. In this regard, Finland is among the best in the world.

When examining what lessons the world can take from Finland’s school system, it is important to take a holistic approach. There are many, many factors which play a part in the success or lack thereof of schools. Cherry-picking single policies or reforms, divorced from a broader context and empirical data is not the way to go.

24 Responses

Why is Finland rather than Hong Kong, Singapore or China the relevant system that Americans ought to learn from? There is a kind of racist subtext where you can only ever learn from other white people and never from non-whites. I know that our (as in Singapore’s) primary school mathematics syllabus has been adopted by some schools and homeschoolers but the impression I seem to be getting is that the teaching establishment in the US does not seem to be as eager to look to Singapore or other east asian models as to Finland even though Singapore consistently outperforms Finland in PISA rankings. So, what gives?Report

Could it be as simple as Finland’s system includes an 11-week summer break, and Singapore has a 6-week winter break? A lot of behind-the-scenes stuff goes in during the summer break. Eg, our local school district’s pay structure rewards teachers for finishing a Masters or PhD degree; many of the classes for those are offered over the summer break. The construction industry is geared towards doing large maintenance of or additions to schools during the summer break.Report

How would the timing of any given break affect pedagogy styles and syllabus construction? In addition to the 6 week winter break, there is a 4 week summer break in june, a 1 week march break and another week in September. I know that schools in the US and UK tend to have most of their breaks in the summer (and a week during christmas*), but the total amount of break time should not be too different. And insofar as schools in the US have a more contiguous school year, they should have more flexibility in how they teach. After all, if it would be detrimental to have a month break come in the middle of teaching a particular topic, then that would limit your options compared to having your holidays all at once.

I don’t know. I do know that papers used to be published regularly claiming that the US system could get better results by “simply” changing to a trimester system with each consisting of three months in class followed by a one-month break*. Such proposals were inevitably shot down because too much of the adult world would have to change to accommodate such a schedule. It is possible that those experiences lead to favoring other systems that already have a US-style summer break. It’s also possible that it’s all racist.

* As I recall, most of them based on experiences like my family had shortly after we moved to Colorado. Due to a huge burst of in-migration, the school district ran a trimester schedule where in any given month, one-quarter of the students (and teachers) were on a one-month break. That stopped as soon as enough temporary classrooms were built because it was uniformly hated.Report

I don’t know if I’d call it racism, but perhaps cultural bigotry? Finland is seen as Euro* and thus people think it’s culturally similar enough that what they do would fly in the US. Singapore, being Asian, would be too radical a departure to be workable.

Asian school systems are rightly or wrongly seen as pressure cookers devoted to pounding facts in their students heads with no more for personal growth. Finland’s school system is seen as more humane and focused on the good of each child rightly or wrongly.Report

I don’t even know where to start. Wouldn’t you say that there’s a big difference between the culture of Singapore and that of the US? There are similarities due to British influence, I’m sure. But they have very different histories, religions, languages, et cetera.Report

Well, everyone, especially the younger generation* speaks english. While everyone is supposed to be bilingual, actual facility with non-english languages like Mandarin or Tamil has bee decreasing and is an ongoing concern for the state. On he other hand, english is still a second language with most Finns. We get the same television programs that you do, perhaps we only get it a year after it comes out in the US, but I doubt that makes a difference. Anyway, with netflix and other streaming services, I don’t think what we get on cable matters anymore. Religion-wise, sure, the demographic mix is somewhat different, but I don’t see how that makes a difference. Singaporeans are a lot more socially conservative on average than Americans, but the Finns, if I’m not wrong are a lot less conservative. I could go on and none of these differences would seem to matter.

Here are a few more plausible options:

Singapore is very conformist and less individualistic. However, Finland also seems to be so. For instance Finland has laws which require people to give their children traditional Finnish names. While exceptions may be granted for religious and ethnic reasons, a cousin of mine who had moved to Finland for his job (he used to work for Nokia) encountered problems in that aspect when his second son was born.

Singaporeans on average tend to value education/respect teachers more than Americans. Even if this is true, So, according to the article, do Finns.

Any consideration as to why Finland is a better model for the US than Singapore is should not just posit some superficial difference, but a) point to an aspect that is plausibly linked to educational outcomes, b) be an aspect in which Singapore really differs from the US and c) be an aspect in which Singapore differs from the US significantly more than Finland does.

*language facility in english might be lower among my grandfather’s generation, but that’s not really an issue for the younger generation except for recent migrants and guest workers from china and bangladesh.Report

Singapore has a high population density and limited natural resources. And it’s small. Such countries have to put an emphasis on trade and education. There simply isn’t a large population in Singapore that has traditionally made a living off the land. That’s bound to affect the culture.

I also think that you’re underrating the importance of historical religion to a culture. It’s going to be hard to quantify, sure. But the patterns across the map are undeniable.

But let’s go back to your original comment, where you tossed out the accusation of racism. That was a lousy thing to say, and it was wrong. They diminish the credibility of the writer.Report

But let’s go back to your original comment, where you tossed out the accusation of racism. That was a lousy thing to say, and it was wrong. They diminish the credibility of the writer.

A lot of europhilia comes from a very ugly place*, which, even if not exactly racism, is about just as bad. Let’s call this a kind of ethno-cultural chauvinism. When you pick the european who is no 6 on the list instead of any of the asians who are placed 1-5, it does look like an expression of an ugly kind of europhilia. This is especially true if the proferred arguments supposedly justifying this choice are really weaksauce.

People who think that the Finnish model is better for the US than the Singaporean model better have a better story to tell than what they have said so far. *The same kind of ugly place that birthed colonialism and slavery. So, very ugly even if understandable and all too human.Report

Murali: Singaporeans are a lot more socially conservative on average than Americans, but the Finns, if I’m not wrong are a lot less conservative.

Another group that’s probably a lot less socially conservative than Americans on average, is American education researchers. So in looking at Finland, they see a culture they agree with more.

And I suspect you’re right that racism or Eurocentric cultural chauvinism plays a part. As @lee-esq mentions there’s the perception of East Asian education systems as cram-focused hothouses. Which while it may have done truth to it, is doubtless considerably reinforced by that racism / cultural chauvinism.Report

@murali FWIW, what I learned in my bookselling days is that Saxon Maths is considered far heavier on practice drills than any other US system, which is generally seen as a selling point to those homeschoolers that use it. Homeschoolers, generally, are people who are *very dissatisfied* with the US system, that’s why they are doing something else. So looking at homeschooling reviews is relevant to curricula, but there are a lot of weird biases baked in that don’t necessarily match what the average person, let alone educational expert, thinks about US curricula.

Also FWIW, 1) my assumption was that the writer was looking to analyze why everyone else is so excited about Finland, rather than preferring it himself, given that the essay is pretty skeptical, and links to at least one article that makes the same point you do (and I did think you were talking about Americans, not this writer, but still I want to mention that); 2) I think the reason why Americans are reluctant to look to Singapore is because the *perception* in the west is that it’s not a democracy (common and very disqualifying in US eyes) and did shady things to Malaysia (less common, less disqualifying, hey, America does shady things too). Rightly or wrongly, that is the perception, and thus people are averse to looking to emulate its systems – similarly, China is perceived as Communist and b/c of the Cold War will never be touted on any kind of large scale (Hong Kong is perceived as Chinese, same problem); on the other hand I grew up hearing about how Japanese educational systems were or weren’t superior to American ones and I know that I have American friends who grew up hearing the same discussions; I’ve also heard conversations about what in South Korea is or isn’t useful in US contexts, more often over the years than I hear about Finland (neither of which I hear about that often; IME Americans mostly argue about which states are good and bad and whether Canada is doing something cool, which arguably b/c provincialism); 3) I nonetheless agree with you that racism (systemic, not the writer’s) plays a role in why people in the US are way more excited about Euro educational systems than Asian ones. Particularly as it may or may not play into the individual points of 2).Report

@murali Blaming y’all (not whollly but mostly) for the racial riots, etc that resulted in Singapore backing out of Malaysia when it was being formed in the 60s. Or, not so much FOR the racial riots, as for not doing more to fix things instead of pulling out of the alliance completely. I’m sure you know more about the details of that than I do, so I’m not making a claim here about the truth of it, but that’s the perception I’ve heard from folks (those few folks who actually even pay enough attention to have an opinion, frankly most Americans don’t). A perception of selfishness/untrustworthiness thereby resulting. That Singapore basically cut itself out so it could prosper while Malaysia suffered, instead of participating in making things better for everyone.

I know a few Malaysians (not that they all agree with this account, by any means), Malaysian-American immigrants, etc, so it’s possible my own perception of American perceptions are skewed. But that variant of the story is the only one I’ve heard over here, and I’ve heard it from folks (including American military members) who aren’t at all acquainted with my Malaysian friends, so I think it’s fairly prevalent (again, among that subset of people who have an opinion on the topic at all).

As I said, this is on the vague personal perceptions of people level, not the “reasoned opinion of educated historians” level.

My own personal perception is more like “Wow, I know very little about all this and will continue to periodically read and study more because I think it’s an extremely interesting region with an extremely complex history,” also, so please don’t think I’m uncritically endorsing this view.Report

PS I would say “has an opinion that Singapore is a dictatorship and thus shouldn’t be emulated” is about 100X or more prevalent than the “did Malaysia wrong” thing. Far more people have a reflex “american-style democracy or bust!” reaction than have ever paid any attention to Singaporean or Malaysian history even in passing. Which is part of what I think reflects systematic racism… in that few people in this country (or most parts of Canada, frankly) seem to have ever paid any attention to Asian history, in broad strokes, even in passing, even though most people in the world live in Asia, and even if they have a decent number of friends whose parents immigrated from an Asian country … but that’s a whole different curricular area :).Report

PPS not “most people in the world live in Asia” yet, I don’t think, I meant to say “more people live in Asia than in any other region of the world”… and of course the concept of “Asia” is kind of Eurocentric itself… etc etc. But I trust y’all know what I meant.Report

As far as the history is taught to us, we did not pull out, we were kicked out. And the reason was because the PAP (along with its Malayan branch, the DAP) was extremely competitive in Penang, Singapore, Johor and Selangor (including KL). The reason that it was so competitive is because the PAP pretty much locked in the non-Malay vote and these areas either had a non-malay majority or it had a sufficiently large non-Malay minority as to seriously threaten UMNO (the main party in the Barisan National coalition) dominance in parliament. The reason why it had locked in the non-Malay vote was because the PAP supported a policy of racial and religious equality whereas UMNO supported a policy of special privileges for the indigenous Malay/Muslim population (Bumiputra policy). The 1964 race riots in question were in fact instigated by UMNO. Radical right wing groups backed by UMNO had handed out anti-chinese and anti-PAP leaflets. Malaysian claims about the PAP not doing enough to stop the riots amount to claiming that the PAP should have acceded to the Bumiputra policy and the non-Malays (and non-Muslims) should have just accepted second-class citizen status. Singapore ultimately left because of a) irreconcilable policy differences and b) UMNO felt electorally threatened by the PAP.Report

@murali I appreciate your perspective on the matter. It is no doubt relevant that the Malaysian people I know are mostly non-Malay Malaysians and thus the descendents of the folks who decided it was worth taking the deal of being 2nd-class citizens rather than (or because they couldn’t) fleeing to join Singapore? Maybe not, but it seems so to me.

In the US, they call the folks who were against the Revolutionary War, and eventually left the country, traitors. (Benedict Arnold being the most famous example.) Where I grew up, we call them Loyalists and most of us number them among our ancestors (while recognizing many of them were sick of fighting more than they were “loyal” to any British crown – most of my ancestors are Scots and most of the ones whose famillies left the US at that time were immigrants (religious refugees, actually) from Germany or France). I realize there are multiple perspectives on history, particularly on any history that involves both people parting ways and violence.

And as I said, I appreciate you sharing yours. But you asked what the perception was, so I told you. FWIW, most of the people – again, mostly not Malaysians, but Americans – who’ve shared that perception with me would also *discount* your version because they don’t believe Singapore has a free press and they don’t trust the PAP’s version of history (and when I’ve pointed out that Malaysia’s press is not more free, they just tell me “well then they’re probably both wrong”). The dictatorship thing is *far* more disqualifying than the Malaysian thing…

And again, I’m not saying it’s disqualifying in the sense of believing that it means you don’t have a good educational system. It’s disqualifying in terms of democracy-or-bust Americans ever adopting it. Do you know how much crap I get just because Canada is a constitutional monarchy? A fair amount. For a *constitutional* monarchy….

Of course at that point I usually point out that not only are we a constitutional monarchy, but also not all provinces have signed off on the constitution, but the prime minister currently comes from the province that hasn’t, and also we have two completely separate sets of civil law, along with several self-governing first nations that also have their own laws (but not entirely), and …. at which point the person giving me crap tends to get distracted by wondering wtf, and if they don’t, I just bring up the history of Social Credit.

Everybody’s history is complicated. The US is perhaps not unique in being fairly confident that theirs is better than anyone else’s, but their confidence does grate.Report

A bit off topic but just to shed some light on Saxon, I can testify that there is a lot of dissatisfaction with Saxon among homeschoolers because there is TOO MUCH pointless practice. A huge number of now-adult homeschoolers despised Saxon growing up and believe that it led them to hate math and not understand some concepts despite having spent countless hours on busywork.

You have to take homeschool reviews with a massive grain of salt. Not only are they not representative of either the average person or the average homeschooler (I’ve never written a homeschool review in my life and I”ve been homeschooling for 20 years) a lot of people will review a product they get before they’ve even really used it. And a LOT LOT of people start homeschooling for a month or a year and then give up – but will still have written reviews. So a review doesn’t really equate to an expert opinion. (Obviously, the amount of practice drills is an objective measure.)

Among homeschoolers the Singapore math has a “new and unproven” veneer and I believe that is why it’s less used than other math curriculums are (it was also quite expensive when I was picking a curriculum for our younger three, so I never seriously considered it) I suspect it will continue to grow in popularity. I don’t think people are particularly opposed to it, just that it hasn’t caught on yet.Report

Religious Institutions. Religious institutions may resume services subject to the following conditions, which apply to churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, interfaith centers, and any other space, including rented space, where religious or faith gatherings are held: 1. Indoor religious gatherings are limited to no more than ten people. 2. Outdoor religious gatherings of up to 250 people are allowed. Outdoor services may be held on any outdoor space the religious institution owns, rents, or reserves for use. 3. All attendees at either indoor or outdoor services must maintain appropriate social distancing of six feet and wear face masks or facial coverings at all times. 4. There shall be no consumption of food or beverage of any kind before, during, or after religious services, including food or beverage that would typically be consumed as part of a religious service. 5. Collection plates or receptacles may not be passed to or between attendees. 6. There should be no hand shaking or other physical contact between congregants before, during, or after religious services. Attendees shall not congregate with other attendees on the property where religious services are being held before or after services. Family members or those who live in the same household or who attend a service together in the same vehicle may be closer than six feet apart but shall remain at least six feet apart from any other persons or family groups. 7. Singing is permitted, but not recommended. If singing takes place, only the choir or religious leaders may sing. Any person singing without a mask or facial covering must maintain a 12-foot distance from other persons, including religious leaders, other singers, or the congregation. 8. Outdoor or drive-in services may be conducted with attendees remaining in their vehicles. If utilizing parking lots for either holding for religious services or for parking for services held elsewhere on the premises, religious institutions shall ensure there is adequate parking available. 9. All high touch areas, (including benches, chairs, etc.) must be cleaned and decontaminated after every service. 10. Religious institutions are encouraged to follow the guidelines issued by Governor Hogan.

“There shall be no consumption of food or beverage of any kind before, during, or after religious services, including food or beverage that would typically be consumed as part of a religious service,” the order says in a section delineating norms and restrictions on religious services.

The consumption of the consecrated species at Mass, at least by the celebrant, is an integral part of the Eucharistic rite. Rules prohibiting even the celebrating priest from receiving the Eucharist would ban the licit celebration of Mass by any priest.

CNA asked the Howard County public affairs office to comment on how the rule aligns with First Amendment religious freedom and free exercise rights.

Howard County spokesman Scott Peterson told CNA in a statement that "Howard County has not fully implemented Phase 1 of Reopening. We continue to do an incremental rollout based on health and safety guidelines, analysis of data and metrics specific to Howard County and in consultation with our local Health Department."

"With this said," Peterson added, "we continue to get stakeholder feedback in order to fully reopen to Phase 1."

The executive order also limits attendance at indoor worship spaces to 10 people or fewer, limits outdoor services to 250 socially-distanced people wearing masks, forbids the passing of collection plates, and bans handshakes and physical contact between worshippers.

In contrast to the 10-person limit for churches, establishments listed in the order that do not host religious services are permitted to operate at 50% capacity.

In the early days of the Coronavirus epidemic, there were hopes that the disease could be treated with a compound called hydroxychloroquine (HCQ). HCQ is a long-established inexpensive medicine that is widely used to treat malaria. It also has uses for treating rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. There had been some indications that HCQ could treat SARS virus infections by attacking the spike proteins that coronaviruses use to latch onto cells and inject their genetic material. Initial small-scale studies of the drug on COVID-19 patients indicated some positive effect (in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin). President Trump, in March, promoted HCQ as a game-changer and is apparently taking it as a prophylaxis after potentially being exposed by White House staff.

Initial claims of the efficacy of this therapy were a perfect illustration of why we base decisions on scientific studies and not anecdotes. By late March, Twitter was filled with stories of "my cousin's mother's former roommate was on death's door and took this therapy and miraculously recovered". But such stories, even assuming they are true, mean nothing. With COVID-19, we know that seriously ill people reach an inflection point where they either recover or die. If they died while taking the HCQ regimen, we don't hear from them because...they died. And if they recover without taking it, we don't hear from them because...they didn't take it. Our simian brains have evolved to think that correlation is causation. But it isn't. If I sacrificed a goat in every COVID-19 patient's room, some of them would recover just by chance. That doesn't mean we should start a massive holocaust of caprines.

However, even putting aside anecdotes, there were good reasons to believe the HCQ regimen might work. And given the seriousness of this disease and the desperation of those trying to save lives, it's understandable that doctors began using it for critically ill patients and scientists began researching its efficacy.

Why Trump became fixated on it is equally understandable. Trump has been looking for a quick fix to this crisis since Day One. Denial failed. Closing off (some) travel to China failed. A vaccine is months if not years away. So HCQ offered him what he wanted -- a way to fix this problem without the hard work, tough choices and sacrifice of stay-at-home orders, masks, isolation and quarantine. So eager were they to adopt the quick fix, the Administration made plans to distribute millions of doses of this unproven drug in lieu of taking more concrete steps to address the crisis.[efn_note]Although the claim that Trump stands to profit off HCQ sales does not appear to hold much water.[/efn_note]

This is also why certain fringe corners of the internet became fixated on it. There has arisen a subset of the COVID Truthers that I'm calling HCQ Truthers: people who believe that HCQ isn't just something that may save some lives but is, in fact, a miracle cure that it's only being held back so that...well, take your pick. So that Democrats can wreck the economy. So that Bill Gates can inject us with tracking devices. So that we can clear off the Social Security rolls. And this isn't just a US phenomenon nor is it all about Trump. Overseas friends tell me that COVID trutherism in general and HCQ trutherism in particular have arisen all over the Western World.

It's no accident that the HCQ Truthers seem to share a great deal of headspace with the anti-Vaxxers. It fills the same needs

In both cases, the idea was started by flawed studies. The initial studies out of China and France that indicated HCQ worked were heavily criticized for methodological errors (although note that neither claimed it was a miracle cure). Since then, larger studies have shown no effect.

HCQ trutherism offers an explanation for tragedy beyond the random cruelty of nature. Just as anti-vaxxers don't want to believe that sometimes autism just happens, HCQ Truthers don't want to believe that sometimes nature just releases awful epidemics on us. It's more comforting, in some ways, to think that bad happenings are all part of a plan by shadowy forces.

There is, however, another crazy side that doesn't get as much attention because their crazy is a bit more subtle. These are the people who have decided that, since Trump is touting the HCQ treatment, it must not work. It can not work. It can not be allowed to work. There is an undisguised glee when studies show that HCQ does not work and a willingness to blame HCQ shortages on Trump and only Trump.[efn_note]Not to mention the odd fish tank cleaner poisoning that has nothing to do with him.[/efn_note]

In between the two camps are everyone else: scientists, doctors and ordinary folk who just want to know whether this thing works or not, politics and conspiracy theories be damned. Well, last week, we got a big indication that it does not. A massive study out of the Lancet concluded that the HCQ regimen has no measurable positive effect. In fact, death rates were higher for those who took the regimen, likely due to heart arrhythmias induced by the drug.

So is the debate over? Can we move on from HCQ? Not quite.

First of all, the study is a retrospective study, looking backward at nearly 100,000 cases over the last four months. That's a massive sample that allows one to correct for potential confounding factors. But it's not a double-blind trial, so there may be certain biases that can not be avoided. In response to the publication, a group doing a controlled study unblinded some of their data (that is, they let an independent group look up who was getting the actual HCQ and who was getting a placebo). It did not show enough of a safety concern to warrant ending the study.

It's also worth noting that because this is an unproven therapy, it is usually being used on only the sickest patients (the odd President of the United States aside). It's possible earlier use of the drug, when the body is not already at war with itself, could help.

With those caveats in mind, however, this study at least makes it clear that HCQ is not the miracle cure some fringe corners of the internet are pretending it is. And it should make doctors hesitant in giving to people who already have heart issues.

As you can imagine, this has only fed the twin camps of derangement. The truther arguments tend to fall into the usual holes that truther theories do:

"How can this be a four-month study when we only learned about COVID in January!" The HCQ protocol started being used almost immediately because of previous research on coronaviruses.

"How come all of the sudden this safe medicine that people use all the time is dangerous?!" The side effects of HCQ have been well known for years and have always required consideration and management. They may be showing up more strongly here because it is being given to patients whose bodies are already under extreme stress. Also, azithromycin may amplify some of those side effects.

"They just hate Trump." Not everything is about Donald Trump. If it turned out that kissing Donald Trump's giant orange backside cured COVID, scientists would be the first ones telling people to line up and use chapstick.

The other camp's response has ranged from undisguised glee -- that is, joy at the idea that we won't be saving lives cheaply -- to bizarre claims that Trump should be charged with crimes for touting this unproven therapy.

(A perfect illustration of the dementia: former FDA Head Scott Gottlieb -- who has been a Godsend for objective analysis during the pandemic -- tweeted out the results of the RECOVERY unblinding yesterday morning and noted that it showed no increased safety risk. He was immediately dogpiled by one side insisting he was trying to conceal the miracle cure of HCQ and the other insisting he is a Trumpist doing the Orange Man's dirty work.)

In the end, the lunatics do not matter. Whether HCQ works or not, whether it is used or not, will be mostly determined by doctors and will mostly be based on the evidence we have in front of us. If HCQ fails -- and it's not looking good -- my only response will be massive disappointment. Had HCQ worked, it would have been a gift from the heavens. It is a well-known, well-studied drug that can be manufactured cheaply in bulk. Had it worked, we could have saved thousands of lives, prevented hundreds of thousands of long-term injuries and saved trillions of dollars. That it doesn't appear to work -- certainly not miraculously -- is not entirely unexpected but is also a tragedy.

{C1} The Christian Science Monitor looks at 1918 and how sports handled that pandemic, and the role it played in giving rise to college football.

"That's really what started the big boom of college football in the 1920s," said Jeremy Swick, historian at the College Football Hall of Fame. "People were ready. They were back from war. They wanted to play football again. There weren't as many restrictions about going out. You could enroll back in school pretty easily. You see a great level of talent come back into the atmosphere. There's new money. It started to get to the roar of the Roaring '20s and that's when you see the stadiums arm race. Who can build the biggest and baddest stadium?"

{C2} During times of rapid change, social science is supposed to be able to help lead the way or at least decipher what is going on. Or maybe not...

But while Willer, Van Bavel, and their colleagues were putting together their paper, another team of researchers put together their own, entirely opposite, call to arms: a plea, in the face of an avalanche of behavioral science research on COVID-19, for psychology researchers to have some humility. This paper—currently published online in draft format and seeding avid debates on social media—argues that much of psychological research is nowhere near the point of being ready to help in a crisis. Instead, it sketches out an “evidence readiness” framework to help people determine when the field will be.

{C3} There is a related story about AI - which is predisposed towards tracking slow change over time - is having trouble keeping up.

{C4} The Covid-19 does not bode well for higher education is not news. They may have a lot of difficulty opening up (and maybe shouldn't). An added wrinkle is kids taking a gap year, which is potentially a problem because those most able to pay may be least likely to attend.

{C5} People who can see the faults with abstinence only education fail to see how that logic (We shouldn't give guidance to people doing things we would rather they not do in the first place). Emily Oster argues that the extreme message of public health advocates to Just Stay Home is counterproductive.

When people are advised that one very difficult behavior is safe, and (implicitly or not) that everything else is risky, they may crack under the pressure, or throw up their hands. That is, if people think all activities (other than staying home) are equally risky, they figure they might as well do those that are more fun. If taking a walk at a six-foot distance from a friend puts me at very high risk, why not just have that friend and a bunch of others over for a barbecue? It’s more fun. This is an exaggeration, of course, but different activities carry very different risks, and conscientious civic leaders should actively help people choose among them.

{C6} A look at what canceling the football season will do to the little guys - non-power schools. Ironically, they may sustain less damage due to fewer financial obligations relying on the money that won't be coming in. Be that as it may, Fordham has disestablished its baseball program.

{C7} Bans on evictions and rental spikes could have the main effect of simply pushing out small investors, rather than protecting renters. In a more good-faith economy this would be less of an issue because landlords would work with tenants. Which some are, though I don't have too much faith about it being widespread.

{C8} Three cheers for Nick Saban. Football coaches are cultural leaders of a sort. One is about to become a senator in Alabama, even. What they do matters.

The American college experience for better or for worse revolves around the residency factor. We have turned college into a relatively safe place for young adults to the test the limits of freedom without suffering too many consequences. Better to miss a day of classes because you drank too much than to miss a day of an apprenticeship or job and get fired. College was cut short this semester because of COVID and colleges are freaking out about whether they can open up dorms in the fall. The dorms are big money makers and it is hard to justify huge tuition bucks for zoom lectures even for elite universities. Maybe especially for them. California State University announced that Fall 2020 is going to be largely online. My undergrad alma mater sent out an e-mail blast announcing their plan to reopen in the fall with "mostly" in person classes. The President admitted that the plan was a work in progress but it strikes me as a combination of common sense and extreme wishful thinking. The plan may include:

1. Staggered drop-off days to limit density as we return.

This sounds reasonable but only in a temporary way because eventually everyone will be back on campus, living in dorm rooms together, needing to use communal bathrooms and showers.

2. Students would be tested for COVID-19 on campus at least twice in the first 14 days.

There is nothing wrong with this as long as the testing is available. Our capacity for testing so far in this country has not been great.

3. Anyone experiencing symptoms would be tested immediately. Students who test positive would be cared for in a separate dormitory area where food would be brought to the room and where the student could still access classes remotely.

Nothing wrong here. Outbreaks of certain diseases are not unknown in the college setting. During my senior year, there was an outbreak of a rather nasty strain of gastroenteritis. Other universities have experienced meningitis outbreaks.

4. All students would take their temperature and report symptoms daily.

This one is also reasonable but is going to involve spying on students and coming up with a punishment mechanism. How will they make sure students are not lying?

5. We would also require that socializing be kept to a minimum in the beginning, with proper PPE (masks) and social distancing. As time went on, we would seek to open up more, and students could socialize and eat together in small groups.

I have no idea how they tend for this to happen and it sets of all my lawyer bells for carefully crafted language that attempts to answer a concern or question but also admits "we got nothing." Maybe today's students are more somber and sincere but you are going to have around 500 eighteen year olds who are away from their parents for the first time and another 1500 nineteen to twenty-one year olds who had their semester rudely interrupted and might now be reunited with boyfriends and girlfriends. Are they going to assign eating times for the dining hall and put up solo eating cubicles that get wiped down and disinfected after each use? Assign times to use laundry facilities in each dorm? Cancel the clubs? Cancel performances by the theatre, dance, and music departments?

I am sympathetic to my alma I love it but and realize that a lot of colleges and universities would take a real hit financially without residency. This includes universities with reasonable to very large endowments. Only the ones with hedge fund size endowments would not suffer but the last part of the plain sounds not fully thought out yet even if my college's current President admitted: "Life on campus will not look the same as it did pre-pandemic" The only way i see number 5 working is if requiring is read as "requiring."

Seems that the theory that Covid-19 can be spread by asymptomatic people has very shaky evidence in support of it. Turns out the case this assumption was made from was based on a single woman who infected 4 others. Researchers talked to the 4 patients, and they all said the patient 0 did not appear ill, but they could not speak to patient 0 at the time.

So they finally got to talk to her, and she said she was feeling ill, but powered through with the aid of modern pharmaceuticals.

Ten Second News

Today we couldn’t be happier to announce that Vox Media and New York Media are merging to create the leading independent modern media company. Our combined business will be called Vox Media and will serve hundreds of millions of audience members wherever they prefer to enjoy our work.

In a nation in turmoil, it's nice to have even a small bit of good news:

Representative Steve King of Iowa, the nine-term Republican with a history of racist comments who only recently became a party pariah, lost his bid for renomination early Wednesday, one of the biggest defeats of the 2020 primary season in any state.

In a five-way primary, Mr. King was defeated by Randy Feenstra, a state senator, who had the backing of mainstream state and national Republicans who found Mr. King an embarrassment and, crucially, a threat to a safe Republican seat if he were on the ballot in November.

The defeat was most likely the final political blow to one of the nation’s most divisive elected officials, whose insults of undocumented immigrants foretold the messaging of President Trump, and whose flirtations with extremism led him far from rural Iowa, to meetings with anti-Muslim crusaders in Europe and an endorsement of a Toronto mayoral candidate with neo-Nazi ties.

King, you may remember, was stripped of his committee assignments last year when he defended white supremacism. Two years ago, he almost lost his Congressional seat in the general. That is, a seat that Republicans have held since 1986, usually win by double digits and a district Trump carried by a whopping 27 points almost came within a point or two of voting in a Democrat. That's how repulsive King had gotten.

Good riddance to bad rubbish. Enjoy retirement, Congressman. Oops. Sorry. In January, it will be former Congressman.

Comment →

From the Daily Mail: Deadliest city in America plans to disband its entire police force and fire 270 cops to deal with budget crunch

The deadliest city in America is disbanding its entire police force and firing 270 cops in an effort to deal with a massive budget crunch.

...

The police union says the force, which will not be unionized, is simply a union-busting move that is meant to get out of contracts with current employees. Any city officers that are hired to the county force will lose the benefits they had on the unionized force.

Oak Park police say they are investigating “suspicious circumstances” after two attorneys — including one who served as a hearing officer in several high-profile Chicago police misconduct cases — were found dead in their home in the western suburb Monday night.

Officers were called about 7:30 p.m. for a well-being check inside a home in the 500 block of Fair Oaks Avenue, near Chicago Avenue, and found the couple dead inside, Oak Park spokesman David Powers said in an emailed statement. Authorities later identified them as Thomas E. Johnson, 69, and Leslie Ann Jones, 67, husband and wife attorneys who worked in Chicago.

The preliminary report from an independent autopsy ordered by George Floyd's family says the 46 year old man's death was "caused by asphyxia due to neck and back compression that led to a lack of blood flow to the brain".

The independent examiners found that weight on the back, handcuffs and positioning were contributory factors because they impaired the ability of Floyd's diaphragm to function, according to the report.

Dr. Michael Baden and the University of Michigan Medical School's director of autopsy and forensic services, Dr. Allecia Wilson, handled the examination, according to family attorney Ben Crump.

Baden, who was New York's medical examiner in 1978 and 1979, had previously performed independent autopsies on Eric Garner, who was killed by a police officer in Staten Island, New York, in 2014 and Michael Brown, who was shot by officers in Ferguson, Missouri, that same year.

Featured Comment

Oddly, the video was dropped by an attorney friend the men, because he thought it would exonerate them. He assumed when people saw Aubrey turn and try to defend himself, everyone would see what they did: a dangerous animal needing to be put down.