Monday, May 07, 2007

Was the Fix In?

Maybe someday I'll get published in there if I wasn't so fucking lazy. Go read it.

Does anybody think the fix was in on Saturday's fight? I gave you my inside info on Friday and while the line didn't drop as anticipated was there a reason?

Now I've blogged before on strange unexplainable situations in the NFL, basketball, and online poker and again I'm not a conspiracy theorist but sometimes its very simple; the fix is in.

I've also blogged before about how sometimes the casinos will fade a certain side, in essence gambling that the public will put money on one side and lose, giving the casino much bigger profits. Most squares will still argue that casinos want the action 50/50 so they win the juice but I've been over that before too so I'm going forward assuming you agree that, at times, a casino will gamble.

My information was that all the late money will come in on De La Hoya and the line of the fight will drop to Mayeather -150 at which point jump on Mayweather and get some decent value on what would be a sure thing. Well something happened that I find fishy. The line never went below -170 despite this article from Friday and this article from Saturday.

How do we explain so much more money pouring in on the underdog yet the casinos didn't lower the line? Now I'm not saying the fix was in neccessarily but the casinos defintiely kept up a number that encouraged more money being bet on the underdog and they definitely had more money on one fighter than they did the other. So perhaps they just gambled that Mayweather would win and that their profits would soar because of it? Just something for everyone to think about.

Of course, one of the judges must have watched a different fight as it seems he was the only person on the planet who though De La Hoya won the fight. Anyway when it was all said and done if you took my inside info you made a nice sum of money. Hope it worked out well for those who did bet.

I've been asked about my baseball picks and I think I'll post about my system tomorrow. I'm always hesitant to post picks because if I happen to go on a bad run or I miss a day here or there when I actually had winners I look like more of an assclown than usual. I will give you the teaser and tell you the most I'll lay in baseball is -120 and probably 95% of my bets are taking the run line, trading the run and a half for odds.

If enough of you are interested maybe what I can do is have you send me an email with your email address and I can do a daily email of the picks I am playing. This way I can make things a little more private and I don't turn into a tout service....yet.

6 Comments:

Classic man. The thing is, I want you to keep posting your picks on the blog and I don't want to have to get a separate email to read them. We won't think you're a tout service.

Interesting what you have to say about the betting on the fight this weekend. In particular with boxing which has never been known to be above a little fixing and paying off of the right people, it is always interesting to see what comes up. And you're 100% right, I haven't seen anybody anywhere who says de la Hoya was ahead on points in that fight. Only that one judge and that's it. Enough to ensure a rematch? Hmmmmm.

There comes a certain point where the casino/casino's are not going to move the line anymore regardless of the money coming in. Just like you talked about the guy saying to hammer the line when it hit -150, the casino is trying to ride that fine line that has the majority of the money is still coming in on De La Hoya (something they seemed to want) and that isn’t having all the sharp money come in on Mayweather. If -170 was that line that wasn’t enough value for most of the sharp money to start going to Mayweather then I would think that is why it stuck. I am sure most of the books new if they started to get lower they were going to get a lot on money on the Mayweather side, something they probably never wanted.