• Ed Miliband has demoted three of the most prominent "Blairites" left in the shadow cabinet in a reshuffle promoting women and members of the 2010 intake. Liam Byrne and Stephen Twigg have left the shadow cabinet, and Jim Murphy has been given the backwater of international development. The Conservatives depicted these moves (see 4.43pm) as a shift to the left, or a sop to Len McCluskey, but Labour sources have robustly rejected this pointing out that Douglas Alexander, who ran David Miliband's campaign for the Labour leadership, has now been put in charge of the general election. In truth, the generational shift may count for more than the ideological shift. Now around a third of shadow cabinet seats are filled by people who were not even in parliament before the 2010 election. There may also be interesting policy implications. Labour does not have a particularly distinctive position on education, but Tristram Hunt, a clever newcomer, now has the job of finding one. And the removal of Maria Eagle from the transport brief may signal a further weakening of support for HS2 (she was notably more supportive of it than Ed Balls has been), although party sources insist the policy has not changed.

•David Cameron has taken some modest steps towards getting more women into his government. Number 10 does not have any figures yet for what proportion of the government is now female, although a spokesman said that, as a result of today's moves, Cameron was "making progress" towards his goal of having a third of ministers women. From today the government will sound a little more feminine, a little less posh, and a little more northern. But since most of the changes involve junior ministers who are not well known to the public, the impact of this will be relatively modest.

Both have produced reshuffles that will keep heads being scratched for some time. For the Lib Dems the good achieved by promoting Alistair Carmichael to defend the Union in Scotland was comprehensively undone by the dismissal of Jeremy Browne and his replacement with the conspiracy theorist Norman Baker at the Home Office. Mr Browne was one of the successes of the Lib Dem end of the Coalition, and an exemplar of the party's seriousness in government. His sacking is baffling, but not nearly as baffling as his replacement by Mr Baker. The MP for Lewes is a media friendly operator who has made a name for himself as an eclectic campaigner. But to put in the Home Office someone who argued with a straight face that David Kelly was the victim if an Iraqi plot that was covered up by the authorities frankly diminishes the office.

As for Mr Miliband, there are two elements to the reshuffle that will fascinate and keep the village talking. First, the purge of the remaining Blairites. It does credit to Liam Byrne and Stephen Twigg that they have accepted their demotions with good grace. Ditto Jim Murphy. But it will have been noticed by the modernisers, who will give up looking for evidence that Mr Miliband isn't taking the party on a long march to the left. Alongside that, the appointment of Spencer Livermore as campaigns director, and Douglas Alexander as campaigns coordinator, is equally interesting. It's a big moment for two Labour operators whose common experience is to have fallen foul of Damian McBride, and by implication of Ed Balls. It will be tempting to conclude that their apointment is designed to marginalise the Shadow chancellor or at least keep him well clear of election planning.

Sacking both Michael Moore and Jeremy Browne is not something Nick would have been able to contemplate a year ago. Then – with the economy still mired in recession, his apology video still fresh in the memory, and Vince reminding everyone he stood ready, willing and able should the need arise – Nick was vulnerable, in need of allies. Now – with the economy recovering, Eastleigh defended and all key conference votes won – Nick feels able to asset himself.

Amber Rudd, Claire Perry, Gavin Barwell & John Penrose have been appointed as Assistant Whips. #reshuffle

Amber Rudd, Claire Perry, and Gavin Barwell. John Penrose was a culture minister until he was sacked last year. After Shailesh Vara (see 3.23pm), he is the second person (I think) to rejoin the government a year after being dropped.

Number 10 officials have been briefing on the government reshuffle. It is not quite over, and they haven't yet got a final list to give us. The spokesman played down the suggestion that it was all about promoting women, or northerners, or George Osborne's allies. "It is not about camps and cabals," he said. "It is about giving jobs to people who can do the job well."

Most of the questions, though, were about Norman Baker going to the Home Office. Downing Street would not say that Theresa May was consulted (which implies that she was not). The prime minister's spokesman also played down the involvement of Cameron himself. This was a Lib Dem appointment and Nick Clegg was responsible for Lib Dem ministerial appointments, he said. But Cameron was consulted about it, he added.

Earlier I posted Nick Clegg's letter to Jeremy Browne about Browne losing his job as Home Office minister.

Here's Browne's reply.

Dear Nick,

Thank you for your letter.

I has been a privilege to serve in a rejuvenated Foreign Office and in a Home Office which has presided over a fall in crime at the same time as achieving necessary budget reductions.

I remain supportive of the government, which has given Britain political stability and a credible economic recovery plan. These may be the minimum requirements of a government, but they are essential and deserve not to be taken for granted.

I hope the government will continue to strive to be reforming and innovative and avoid the danger of lapsing into transactional trade-offs and deferred decision making.

Britain's medium-term prosperity and status is at stake. It is crucial that we continue to reduce the budget deficit, maintain stability in monetary policy, keep our business and personal tax rates internationally competitive, raise school standards, tackle endemic inter-generational welfare dependency, invest in infrastructure and extend personal freedom in both the private realm and in public service provision.

I supported your election as party leader and I admired your decision to take our party into government. Easy and permanent opposition may be alluring to some but you are right not to find it seductive.

Our party should aspire to be in government, not for its own sake but because our country will benefit hugely from an infusion of authentic liberalism as we seek to remain relevant and successful in a fast-changing world.

Here's the text of Nick Clegg's letter to Jeremy Browne, who has been sacked as a Home Office minister. Clegg tells Browne that he wants as many Lib Dem MPs as possible to have a chance at being a minister.

Dear Jeremy

I want to thank you for the key role you have played in government over the past three years, first as Minister of State at the Foreign Office and latterly as Minister of State in the Home Office.

You have made a hugely valuable political contribution to the coalition over the past three years both as a highly able representative of the UK to other nations and more recently dealing with the many domestic challenges that face the Home Office.

It is always very difficult to move colleagues out of government but as you know, I have always been keen that we provide the opportunity for as many in our ranks as possible to contribute their skills to ministerial office during this Parliament so that, just as the government has benefited from your contribution over the past three years, it can also gain from those of other colleagues in the remaining years of this parliament.

I am immensely grateful to you for your commitment and support over the past few years. You have made a major contribution to this historic coalition government and as one of the very few ministers who have served in two departments, I have no doubt there will be an opportunity for your experience to be deployed in government in the future.

That's Susan Kramer, who was once the Lib Dem candidate for London mayor. She is joining the government for the first time. She is effectively taking Norman Baker's Lib Dem slot at transport, although Baker was only a parliamentary under-secretary. As minister of state she will be more senior.

Matthew Hancock, the business minister, has been promoted. He was just a parliamentary under-secretary at the Department for Business, but not he is a minister of state. But he seems to be keeping the same portfolio (skills).

The Chartered Institute for Housing has issued a tribute to Mark Prisk, who has reportedly left his post as housing minister. This is from Graina Long, its chief executive.

Mark Prisk's tenure as housing minister has been marked by a commendable focus on delivery. Although progress on numbers of new homes has been disappointingly slow it is clear that the minister has been working hard to explore different delivery options and taking a personal interest in work to unlock stalled sites. He also brought a good deal of personal integrity to the role and a careful and thoughtful approach informed by a real understanding of the housing system and housing markets reflecting his background as a property professional. His personal style was highly non-partisan demonstrating a willingness to search for solutions rather than a desire to play politics with something as important to peoples’ lives as housing.

I’m disappointed to be leaving office right now, but I’m very pleased at what I’ve been able to achieve in the last couple of years, particularly the constitutional debate with the Scotland Act and the Edinburgh Agreement. But this big decision that we’re taking as a country is bigger than one individual, bigger than one party, and I look forward to continuing to play a really big role in the constitutional debate over the course of the next 12 months.

• David Cameron has been seeking to refresh the image of his party by promoting women, non-southerners and people with modest backgrounds. Those who have benefited so far include: Esther McVey (a woman, obviously, and an MP from the Wirral, who has moved up at DWP from disabilities minister to employment minister); Sajid Javid (the Lancashire-born son of a bus driver, who has moved up at the Treasury from economic secretary to financial secretary); Nicky Morgan (the MP for Loughborough in the Midlands who is moving from the whips office to the Treasury); Mike Penning (the former fireman who has become a minister of state at the DWP, having held the same rank at the more obscure Northern Ireland Office); and Greg Clark (the Middlesbrough-born son of a milkman, who moves sides from the Treasury to the Cabinet Office but who will now attend cabinet). Other people who have been promoted include Greg Hands, who moves up in the whips office to become deputy chief whip.

• Theresa May, the home secretary, has welcomed the promotion of women.

I’m very pleased to see women being promoted. I think it is important that we get that mixture across ministerial positions. And of course we had a step change in the number of women on the Conservative benches in the House of Commons as a result of the general election in 2010, and I’m very pleased to say a number of those women have been getting very good experience and have been coming through the ranks.

• A string of middle-ranking ministers are leaving government.Simon Burns (the transport minister), John Randall, (the deputy chief whip) and Chloe Smith (the Cabinet Office minister) announced their departure before today. So far Richard Benyon (the fisheries minister) and Mark Hoban (the employment minister) have confirmed today they are leaving the government. Mark Prisk, the housing minister, is also reported to be leaving. Smith has explained that it was her decision to leave government.

This is entirely my decision, it’s a very positive one for me because it allows me to focus on the things that are most important to me, which is my work for the constituency and work that I can do to also promote the cause of young people.

• Don Foster has become Lib Dem deputy chief whip. He was a communities minister. In other Lib Dem moves, it is also being reported that Norman Baker will replace Jeremy Browne at the Home Office.

So this is being billed as a promotion. But being in charge of the constitution at the Cabinet Office, when the government's constitutional reform programme has virtually evaporated, is not a move to boast about.

Best wishes to @MichaelMooreMP. A tough opponent but always pleasant. He can take pride in the achievement of the Edinburgh Agreement.

My colleague Severin Carrell points out that Sturgeon was the Scottish government's main negotiator over the Edinburgh agreement, which transferred temporary legal power to hold the independence referendum to Holyrood last year. She is also widely seen as having bested Moore in an STV debate on independence earlier this year.

As I mentioned earlier (see 10.11am) having good relations with the SNP seems to have been Moore's undoing.

And Magnus Linklater, the former Scotsman editor, thinks dropping Moore will be a disaster.

Inside Number 10 - I am told - the phone calls are still being made. Suggests either a) a long list. Or b) some rejections #reshuffle

At this moment it might be worth recalling what Jonathan Powell wrote about the way junior ministers are reshuffled in his memoir about working for Tony Blair, The New Machiavelli.

The appointment of junior ministers is a mass production exercise. "Switch" [the Downing Street switchboard] gets five or six about-to-be-ministers stacked up on the phone, and then they are put through to the prime minister one after another. The private secretary's job is to stick the right bit of paper in front of the prime minister to make sure that he appoints the right person to the right job. There were frequent shouts from the den asking what on earth the job was that the next caller was supposed to be doing.

And here's Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, on the sacking of Michael Moore and his replacement by Alistair Carmichael.

Michael Moore is leaving on a high after three very good years as Scottish Secretary. He persuaded the nationalist Government to approve the Scotland Act they previously condemned as a poison pill. Against the odds he secured an agreement with the nationalists on the conduct of the referendum. Michael Moore repeatedly outwitted Alex Salmond.

As we move to the next stage of the campaign I am looking forward to working with Alistair Carmichael. His feisty style combined with his charm, wit and intelligence is just what we need for the last twelve months in our efforts to safeguard our partnership with the rest of the United Kingdom.

To help to explain why, it's worth quoting what Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary (at least, for now - the Labour reshuffle is definitely going ahead too, so that may have changed by the end of the day) and shadow equalities minister said in her speech to the Labour women's conference.

David Cameron seems surprised that he has such a problem with women.

Yet look at his policies, and look at his approach No women in any of the top economic posts: no women Treasury Ministers, no women on the Monetary Policy Committee.

In David Cameron’s last reshuffle he sacked 0% of the men and 60% of the women in his cabinet – and there are fewer women in the cabinet as a result.

Michael Moore's exchange of letters with Nick Clegg

Here's Nick Clegg's letter to Michael Moore (sacking him).

Clegg says that he expects Moore to serve in government again in the future. (But this sounds like a reference to a possible coalition government after 2015, which may not be a great consolation to Moore.)

Dear Mike

I want to thank you for the vital role you have played as Secretary of State for Scotland over the past three years.

You became Scottish Secretary in 2010 at a critical time in Scotland's relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom and you have managed the challenges of the situation with great skill and effectiveness.

Not only have you successfully piloted through legislation to enable Scotland to take a major step towards the party's long held goal of 'Home Rule'. but you have also ensured that the referendum next year will give the Scottish people a clear and decisive question on which to cast their vote.

It should be recognised that you secured both the Scotland Act and the Edinburgh Agreement in the context of a majority SNP government at Holyrood, and against a backdrop of an external political narrative that often suggested the legislation would fail and a referendum agreement could not be secured. You have achieved all of this while working ceaselessly for the interests of the Scottish people within the United Kingdom.

As we discussed when we spoke on Friday, I believe we now need to draw on different experience in the final year running up to the referendum itself and I am keen that just as we have benefited from your formidable skills over the past three years that we take advantage of other experience within our ranks during this period.

I am immensely grateful for all the work you have done at the Scotland Office and for the very significant contribution you have made to the first coalition government in 70 years. I have no doubt that there will be an opportunity for your talents to be deployed in government in the future.

Yours sincerely,

Nick Clegg

And here's Moore's reply.

Dear Nick

Thank you for your letter.

I am grateful to have had the opportunity to be part of the cabinet. Putting Liberal Democrat policies into practice in government has been our party's ambition for a very long time and I have valued the chance to play a key role in it.

This has been, and will continue to be, a hugely important time in Scottish politics and that has made it a challenging and rewarding time to be Secretary of State for Scotland. Taking the Scotland Act through Parliament and negotiating the Edinburgh Agreement have been the highlights of my time in office, as well as, more recently, making the case for Scotland to stay part of the United Kingdom.

However, I have also valued the chance to get out and about around Scotland week after week to listen to the challenges facing people and make sure those are understood by colleagues elsewhere in government. I am glad that there are now early signs of economic recovery, but we must not lose sight of the huge difficulties many people still face.

Over the last few years I have worked with a superb team of civil servants and advisers in the Scotland Office, and other government departments, in very challenging circumstances. I do not think the support teams for ministers always get the credit they deserve: I am very grateful for the support they have given me.

In leaving the Scotland Office I am pleased that Alistair will be succeeding me. As a good friend and long time colleague, I believe he will do a superb job. I wish him all the best.

Here's an extract from the letter Randall wrote to David Cameron offering his resignation.

I have nothing but the deepest admiration for you as a person, leader and prime minister. I will never forget the kind note that you wrote to me when my mother died last year.

You can be assured that I will do whatever I can for you personally as well as for the party, the Government and of course the country.

In his reply, Cameron said he "could not have wished for a more loyal, discreet, patient, trustworthy and committed colleague" and that he "had rather hoped this day would never come".

You have been a rock, not just in the whips office since 2000 where you have served with great distinction as assistant and then deputy chief whip, but for the whole parliamentary party.

Your wit and humour are well known across the party, but so too is your compassion; your dedication to the party and to parliament; and your steadfast reliability in good times and bad.

And here's an extract from the resignation letter than Smith wrote.

I have been privileged to serve my country and my party under your leadership.

However, for the remainder of the parliament I want to be able to spend more time serving my constituents. My constituents have always come first for me, and they know the high standards and hard work that I ask of myself as the member of parliament for Norwich North.

As you know, I was only 27 when I was lucky enough to be elected as an MP, and of my four years in Parliament so far, I have spent three as a minister.

I would welcome the opportunity to develop other ways of giving public service, both inside and outside parliament, while continuing to work hard for my constituents.

Smith won her seat, Norwich North, from Labour in a byelection and in 2010 she had a majority of just 3,901. She may have a good reason for wanting to focus on her constituency.

Conservatives

I suspect that the proportion of women on Cameron's Commons front bench will be larger than it is now once the reshuffle has taken place. The Prime Minister would do well to stick with rather than sack the women he has in Cabinet already. But if there were vacancies, the women Ministers below Cabinet level are: Helen Grant, Esther McVey, Chloe Smith, Anna Soubry and Elizabeth Truss. Cameron will have an eye to regional balance as well as political outlook if he is looking to promote one or more of them.

McVey and Truss probably top the list. McVey is good at presenting, is handling a difficult brief deftly (she is Minister for Disabled People at a time of spending retrenchment), and, uniquely, is a Tory woman Minister from the most crucial swing area of all – the north-west. Truss may have lost a battle over childcare policy with Nick Clegg, but she hasn't lost her standing in government: she fronted the case for Michael Gove's GCSE changes last week. Soubry may be promoted if Cameron and the whips want to please the Party's left and like the way she fires from the hip.

While one or two cabinet ministers may see their jobs change, the main shake-up, expected tomorrow, will be in the junior ministerial ranks, with Liz Truss, Anna Soubry and Helen Grant tipped for promotion, along with Jessica Lee, a relatively unknown MP who is parliamentary aide to Dominic Grieve. The Prime Minister was heavily criticised a year ago for a reshuffle which saw the number of women in the Cabinet decrease from five to four.

There were rumours in Whitehall this weekend that Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin will be moved from his post – although not out of the Cabinet altogether – after complaints that the case for HS2 has not been made clear enough to voters. Mr Cameron and George Osborne are considering giving the job to someone who can better argue the case in the media and in Parliament.

The Tory reshuffle is not expected to extend to the cabinet but those tipped for promotion include Liz Truss, children’s minister; Amber Rudd, George Osborne’s parliamentary aide; and Claire Perry, another close ally of the chancellor.

Those few Tory MPs who happen to be women and northerners are likely to be especially blessed: Jane Ellison, a Yorkshire-born former manager at John Lewis, and Esther McVey, a Liverpudlian former television presenter and businesswoman, are well-regarded in Number 10.

Chloe Smith quitting is going to tempt everyone to dust off the footage of that Paxman interview with her. But, I hear, that Smith’s desire to protect her own marginal seat was more important to the decision. There was actually a sense that Smith had recovered relatively well from that disastrous interview. So, Number 10 was fairly surprised when she wrote to the Prime Minister last month saying she wanted to step down.

Tomorrow, we’ll hear who has been promoted. It is expected to be a good day for women and northern MPs. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, Esther McVey is tipped for a second successive promotion. Amber Rudd, George Osborne’s PPS, is another who’d be well advised to make sure her phone is fully charged tomorrow. While the straight talking, Cameron loyalist Kris Hopkins is almost expected to do well. The promotion of this Yorkshire MP and former army private would help counteract the idea that the Tories are just a posh, southern party.

These reshuffles, like pregnancy, dentistry and exams were further proof that pain has no memory. I don't know how many we have done now, but until a new one starts, you forget how awful the process is.

That's Alastair Campbell, writing in his diary on in May 2002. With two reshuffles expected today, that's a good place to start.

Neither Downing Street nor the Labour party have formally confirmed that they are reshuffling today, and so there's a possibility that we could get to 6pm and with the headline I've put on this blog looking premature (like all those headlines about the "pregnant" panda in Edinburgh zoo - whatever happened to her). But Labour sources are saying that their reshuffle will be over before the Commons returns from its recess which suggests that, unless Ed Miliband wants to wrap it all up before lunch tomorrow, he's going to go today. And in some respects the government one has already started, because, as Rowena Mason reports on today's Guardian, three ministers have already resigned.

David Cameron's long-serving deputy whip, John Randall, and his youngest minister, Chloe Smith, have resigned ahead of a reshuffle in which the prime minister is expected to promote a number of women.

Downing Street's surprise announcements sparked speculation that Cameron will shake up junior roles within his team as early as Monday. They follow the resignation of transport minister Simon Burns, who wants to stand as deputy Commons speaker, with rising stars such as Sajid Javid, Esther McVey and Nicky Morgan tipped for bigger jobs.

Randall, who has served in the Tory whips' office for 13 years, said he informed the prime minister last year that he wanted to return to the backbenches. He is best known for his role in the resignation of his boss, Andrew Mitchell, the former chief whip, over the "plebgate" scandal just over a year ago.

And even if we don't get all the names today, there's not much point blogging about anything else, because the two reshuffles may the the only things people are talking about at Westminster today.

As usual, I’ll also be covering all the breaking political news as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I’ll post a lunchtime summary at about 1pm and another in the afternoon.