Monday, August 25, 2003

I would like to amend my previous hopes regarding the events in California. Mr. Ueberroth is not as conservative as I thought. He even opposed Prop 187! Hopefully Ueberroth follows Simon in dropping out, and then they both endorse McClintock.

A three-way race between Arnold, McClintock, and Bustamante would be interesting. You'd have a conservative, a liberal, and a moderate. Arnold (the moderate) would be well-positioned in such a race, but either of the other two candidates could pull off an upset.

Right now, I'm just hoping for anyone but Bustamante. Heck, it would be better for the GOP if Davis survived the recall than if Davis was ousted in favor of his Lt. Gov.

Davis is hugely unpopular. Republicans can use that to their advantage in 2004. It would be harder to demonize a relatively fresh-faced pol like Bustamante.

(As an aside, what's up with the last names of these guys? Ueberroth? Bustamante?? Schwarzenegger??? I'm normally a good speller, but Jesus...)

Sunday, August 17, 2003

California Thoughts

In 2002, Republican voters made a huge mistake in nominating conservative Bill Simon over moderate Dick Riordan. California is a very liberal state, and a right-wing political novice like Simon had little hope of victory in a general election, even against the hugely unpopular Gray Davis. Riordan, with his moderate social views and his experience as mayor of California's largest city (that's LA, folks), could have easily bested the Democrat incumbent.

The situation is different this time, however. A recall election does not require a majority, as it is not essentially a two-way race between two major-party candidates. It's a 135-way race. Presumably, 15% or so of the vote could well be enough to garner the needed plurality. And certainly more than 15% of the registered voters in California are true conservatives.

That's why the GOP leadership could be making a huge mistake by semi-endorsing Arnold for governor. Arnold, though nominally a Republican, is far more liberal than conservative. He may have a huge advantage on election day due to his universal name recognition, but victory is hardly guaranteed. Shouldn't Republican voters cast their ballots for someone who actually sounds like a Republican, instead of someone who just says he is?

I believe the best outcome would be for Simon to drop out and endorse (and campaign for) Peter V. Ueberroth. Ueberroth is an actual conservative with a track record of financial success in executive positions. With the conservative base rallying around a single major candidate, I could see PVU racking up more total votes than either Arnold or Democrat Lt. Governor Cruz M. Bustamante.

Will it happen this way? Of course not. But what's the point of California, if you can't dream?