Obama holds a small lead over McCain, 4 months before the election, but previous summer polls don't always predict the outcome in November. (AP Photo)

(CNN) - The race for the White House remains tight as American heads into the July 4 weekend, a new CNN poll of polls shows.

In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent. That represents a slight increase for the Illinois senator over the last week: in a CNN Poll of polls released last Friday, Obama topped the Arizona senator by 5 points.

“As we hit the July 4 holiday weekend, the presidential polls seem to have settled into a stable pattern,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama’s lead in our polling average has been holding relatively steady around the five percent mark for almost a month. The question now is whether that lead will hold — or possibly even expand — as we turn our attention to the conventions and the campaigns start advertising more.”

The presumptive presidential nominee has clearly increased his lead from one month ago: in a CNN poll of polls conducted June 2, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race, Obama led McCain by only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent.

But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.

Consider where the presidential race stood in 2004 heading into the July 4 weekend: then, John Kerry held a 4 point lead over Bush in a CNN poll of polls, 49 percent to 45 percent, a lead that evaporated by November. And in 2000, Bush was up 6 points over Gore at this point in the summer — and the outcome that year, of course, was one of the narrowest electoral victories in the nation's history.

soundoff(245 Responses)

DAN

The latest polls are the ones that matter, poll of polls what a joke!

July 3, 2008 10:31 pm at 10:31 pm |

Raymond Duke

Of course cnn is going to have him up in the polls. But put that aside John McCain will win in november. The more that Obama opens his mouth and changes on everything the lower his rating will go. Obama and his wife dug their on political graves with the statements they made and the friends they kept. Throw in the shananigans of the democrat leadership and you got a big no- Obama in november. I can't stand McCain but he is the best of the two evils. The only one that was qualified to be president got the shaft from the democrat leadership and the media.

July 3, 2008 10:32 pm at 10:32 pm |

sharon

did not read this article. Just went to comments. CNN ENOUGH with the daily polls. Don't you care about your readers.? They tell you this again and again....again.....again

July 3, 2008 10:34 pm at 10:34 pm |

Texans for Obama

Don't worry with the economy in shambles, and people losing jobs everyday, John McCain will not win. Obama will win in a landslide.
I don't want these young peoples future in their hands period.

July 3, 2008 10:36 pm at 10:36 pm |

Will from Gaithersburg, MD

Obama 08! We will bring change to this country!

July 3, 2008 10:38 pm at 10:38 pm |

Martha Roots Woods

Indiana Democrats love Barack Obama!

July 3, 2008 10:40 pm at 10:40 pm |

Fillibuddy

YES-bama!

July 3, 2008 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |

Slider

Last I looked at the word "change"; it didn't look anything like "progress"

The two are not synonymous.

Democrats would do well to remember: Carter talked about "change". So did Clinton. Our country changed for worse after these two bozos got done with their foreign policy gaffes. With Carter, we got the creation of the greatest terrorist supporting state that ever existed. With Clinton, we got 3,000 dead on 9/11 as he stupidly tried to have the world "like us", all the while bombing Iraq on several occasions, and having our soldiers dragged through the streets of Somalia, while getting us embroiled in Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Pee on your "change", Democrats.

July 3, 2008 10:42 pm at 10:42 pm |

Rich

McCain has sold out so bad it is almost funny if it wasn't so sad. He comes off as a petty little old man. And to think I use to like him.

July 3, 2008 10:42 pm at 10:42 pm |

Independent

I hope the liberals think McCain cannot win......I just hope the liberals do.

July 3, 2008 10:44 pm at 10:44 pm |

RJ, CA

Loved the bumper sticker I saw yesterday:

ANNOY THE LIBERALS (i.e., Obama)
Work - Succeed - Be Happy!

July 3, 2008 10:45 pm at 10:45 pm |

Brian

Wow, Obama just said he wouldn't pull out of Iraq, this guy is the king of the flip floppers!

July 3, 2008 10:46 pm at 10:46 pm |

New Yorker

franks problem – Doesn't know the difference between a good president and a bad one. Policies of former democratic presidents' appeasement policies are partly what got us into the mess with terrorists, but the major issue with the terrorists is the liberal promotion of immoral behavior that so many decadent democrats promote. It flies in the face of Islam.

I got to say, my man Obama is sounding more and more like a politician everyday. I was an Independent for Obama, but I am getting to the point where I dread to see him talk because he sounds more and more lik Bill Clinton with his manipulative ways of using words.

July 3, 2008 10:49 pm at 10:49 pm |

Raymond Duke

Some of you people must be drinking Obama's kool-aid . It must have some of that jonestown kool-aid. When you think the democrats are going to take Alaska, North AROLINA, NEVEADA , IDAHO , MONTANA,. You people better get back in the real world and hope like heck that you can win them swing states that he called uneducated racist because they voted for Hillary Clinton. You better hope after his remarks and with Ed Schultz and Bob Beckel his surrgoates on t.v. calling white people "WHITEY' and "CRACKERS'.

July 3, 2008 10:50 pm at 10:50 pm |

Mauri

Obama is sure to win, most say. But it won't happen unless he quits the notorious "flip-flopping" he's been doing lately. I am not in favor of calling the instances flip-flops when a candidate changes his mind when there are legitimate reasons. This is true of the offshore drilling on McCain's part. It's right that he's now in favor of it, opposed to his stand against it in the past. We need that extra oil in our own coffers, be it next year or within the next 10.

With Obama coming out today and saying in essence that he'll be taking a new look at the Iraq and meet with the Generals, and then announce his plan of withdrawals. Well, that's a true flip-flop, and he'd better watch it in the future. We all listened to so many debates during the primary, and we heard how each of the candidates would handle the situation in Iraq to the point of almost being sick. How well we recall that Hillary always said she would handle the withdrawals responsibly - that being the keyword. But Senator Obama was always emphatic about beginning to withdraw on the first day of his presidency. This will be one of the things he's going to have to talk about in the future.

July 3, 2008 10:51 pm at 10:51 pm |

Teri

Obama doesn't want to debate McCain. He would have to think on his feet- and he prefers to stick to the script. Even then, he has to do a "press conference do-over" like today on the war.