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Tuesday, July 26, 2011

TS Nock-Ten (Juaning) Update #7

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Juaning) has quickly intensified over the past 12 hours as it moves across the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 190km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are now at 85kph with gusts of up to 110kph. TS Juaning is now moving northwestward at 15kph.

Based on IR imagery from NOAA, Juaning's structure has improved greatly with the convection now blowing up on the western and southern quadrant. Convection is also trying to wrap around the center and it looks like Juaning is developing an eyewall now, indicative of the intensification going on inside the storm. We will not be surprised if the agencies will continue upping the strength of Juaning in the later updates. Furthermore, the longer Juaning stays in the water, the higher chances it will have in strengthening.

From the Subic Radar posted by PAGASA at 9:30pm last night, light to moderate rain continue to move across the Central and Southern Luzon. The heaviest rainfall is still near the center which is now over the waters. Places especially on the eastern coast such as Quezon, Polilio Island, Camarines Provinces, and Aurora, will receive the brunt of the rain and winds. Places inland such as Manila and the surrounding provinces will also receive strong winds and heavy rain as Juaning moves closer to Luzon.

We have, again, changed our forecast in order to reflect the latest developments and trends regarding Juaning's strength and movement. We are now forecasting Juaning to make landfall near Dingalan, Aurora by later this morning (around 8am). Now, it is possible that the track will shift again (remember we were forecasting Juaning to make landfall in Infanta, Quezon earlier last night), and I would say that areas from Real to Casiguran is at risk of seeing Juaning's center. Due to those developments, we now expect Juaning to stay at least 100km north of Manila as it moves across Luzon tomorrow. By the afternoon (2pm), Juaning will be at least 50km southeast of Dagupan, Pangasinan. It should be out of Luzon by late Wednesday night.

Again, always make sure to listen to the official forecasts from PAGASA, as well as for school suspensions around your area. Next update will be around 3am today, and another one at 6am.
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Issued (1630 UTC) 12:30am PhT 072711