These categories are always tough to predict because I can never tell if the voters are going to watch the entirety of each nominated miniseries. If I’m not mistaken, voters in the Lead Actor category would be asked to watch 6 hours of Luther, 5 hours of Carlos, and 8 hours of The Kennedys — and that’s just 4/6 contenders. It’s a tall order, and probably works for and against some of the nominees, especially in the supporting categories.

Tom Wilkinson dominates the first episode of The Kennedys, so I’m confident that most voters will at least see that much. That, combined with his reputation (2 Oscar nominations), would seem to solidify his status as a front runner in the supporting actor category.

Evan Rachel Wood, on the other hand, does not even appear in Mildred Pierce until the fourth of five episodes. She is superb, but I fear that not enough voters will make it all the way through such a slow-moving series to really get to see her work. If voters watch just one episode of Downton Abbey they’ll be treated to Maggie Smith reprising her Oscar-nominated work in Gosford Park and can probably be persuaded to vote for such a legendary actress on that alone. It’s between those two, but it really depends on how many voters truly watch ALL of the nominated work.

Also, I have no idea how to predict Lead Actor. Ramirez should win, but he’s an unknown foreign actor and Carlos is far from traditional Emmy fodder. Hurt is the resident Oscar winner, but Too Big to Fail is hardly a showcase of his talents, and was a bit of a disappointment in general. Elba’s work is likely too subtle, and if this group has yet to award Michael C. Hall for similar work in Dexter, I doubt they’ll give their prize to him. I haven’t seen Fishburne in Thurgood, but it’s a filmed stage play and those don’t always do as well in the performance categories. Then there’s The Kennedys, whose nominations in just about every category were a bit of a shock considering the tepid critical response the production received. I suppose Kinnear could win for his serviceable JFK impression, but it would be one of the most forgettable wins ever.

So, basically, none of the Lead Actor contenders will win? I’ll predict Ramirez for now, but this is one category to watch.