what "natural rights" discussion you're talking about, but I appreciate the kind words!

I'm sticking to the marble story. Suppose that you reach into a jar of marbles and draw one out, but for some reason the only kind of marble you are physically capable of grasping is a blue one. It doesn't matter what else is in the jar, you'll pick a blue marble if there is one, or else come up empty.

So suppose you've drawn a blue marble. Even if for some reason you think that blue marbles are extremely improbable, the fact that you picked a blue marble doesn't tell you anything about what else might be in the jar. It could be that there was exactly one marble in the jar, and it was blue. Or there could be an infinite number of blue marbles. Or an infinite number of red marbles plus one blue. The marbles could have been randomly generated by some unknown process, or it could be that there was only one blue marble and it was specially crafted just for you by an intelligent marble creator.

The fact that you picked a blue marble doesn't make one hypothesis more likely than any other.

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