Wednesday, November 9

Why Israel wants to attack Iran.

If Israel attacks Iran, it won't just be because they fear a Shia nuke.

Sure, a big red button of win on the Ayatollah's desk would be a credible check on Israeli power and would certainly start an arms race in the Middle East (the Saudi's too would race to centrifuge some yellow cake into something blowable) but this is not what Israel really fears. Besides, Israel has 200+ nukes of its own and is not a signer of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. They know an Iranian nuke would be merely 'theater balancing'. If the Iranians ever used it, Israel would glass them back to the Stone Age. That's the fun thing about nukes. They're really only useful when they never get used. In fact, nukes are the greatest peace keeping weapons ever invented.

And that's a problem for Israeli expansionist right wingers.

The real reason Israel wants a war with Iran has little to do with nukes and a whole lot more to do with the current political and military situation in Israel's own back yard. The recent Palestinian UNESCO vote at the UN was pretty much a slap across the face to Israel. Israel knows the rest of the world hates their guts for not making a peace deal with the Palestinians. And the UNESCO vote was no empty gesture either. Since UNESCO was a general assembly vote it could not be vetoed by Israel via AIPAC via the US. Sure, you might think UNESCO is just an educational, scientific and cultural organization but the fun part mixed up in all the fine print is that the vote allows the Palestinians to join the International Criminal Court. So soon, you could have international arrest warrants out for Israeli leaders who like to bust out the white phosphorous after some fucktard Gazan goat herder launches a home made rocket at a school bus.

In truth, Israeli right wingers are getting extra twitchy.

The Palestinians have finally realized they cannot win their war with Israel militarily. So they've gotten smart and changed tactics. They're now aiming for a political and moral victory. And that's a war right wing politicians in Israel can't send the mighty IDF to win. In fact, it's a war the Israelis think they might lose. Especially when they themselves score major PR failures like the raid on the Turkish ship Mavi Marmera which seriously pissed off the rest of the world and especially Turkey, a major NATO power in the region. In truth, the Israeli right cannot get what it wants (more land and settlements) through peace and negotiation.

The Israelis can at best delay the Iranian nuke program with a bombing mission but the truth is, the Iranian nuke program is diversified enough that nothing is gonna stop a Shia nuke in the long run. Uranium enrichment and warhead design is tricky but nothing the Iranian mathematicians can't work out with a pencil given enough time. If Israel attacks Iran they're playing a different game then the one advertised on TV. It's about delaying Iran while neutralizing Southern Lebanon.

So it might soon be time to grab the popcorn folks.

If Israel attacks Iran's nuke sites it'll be because they want to provoke an Iranian response in their own backyard that'll allow them to finally settle their Lebensraum and 'illegal' settlement problem once and for all. Since the pesky Persians have no air force capable of conducting a reciprocal strike, they'll have to rely on their asymmetrical forces. And Iran sure has plenty of these. The Iranians basically have a proxy army right next door to Israel in Southern Lebanon and as soon as this war goes live (if it ever does and hopefully not), you can expect Hezbollah, the al-Aqsa martyr brigades, al-Qassam and all the other Iranian funded proxies to launch everything they've got at Tel Aviv.

This will be the open invitation Israel needs to finally take the gloves off and do what they've been itching to do since the IDF got its nose bloodied by Shia heavy infantry in Lebanon in 2006. The forces there are no joke either. Entrenched and well equipped with rocket artillery, mainly consisting of 122mm Katyushas (range 30km), they also have Syrian made BM-21s, Iranian Arash and maybe 100 Fajr-5 (range Tel Aviv) and also a nice spectrum of modern anti tank weapons including the RPG-32, (the Israelis lost 30 of their supposedly invincible Merkeva tanks to them in 2006). This pesky Iranian proxy army next door is not going to be defeated unless the Israeli military goes total war on their asses. And a war with Iran will be all the justification they need to get the ball rolling.

The Israeli right wants more territory and they are not going to get it by entering peaceful negotiations with the Palestinians. That strategy is for wimps. All that more peace talks will buy is some good Israeli PR in the minds of a foreign public with the collective memory of a goldfish. And that's worth jack shit in the regional power play and won't deliver the needed real estate. A walled in Palestinian state will only be desirable to the Israelis after they've chopped it all up into small manageable chunks linked by roads and water supplies they control. That annexation isn't complete yet. And with the way the Palestinian question is playing on the world stage right now, the Israelis are seeing problems brewing with their ongoing annexation policy. They're also nervous about fighting a growing demographic time bomb at home where Israeli Arabs and Palestinians are fucking like jack rabbits creating a voting bloc which could skew things away from the distinctly Jewish state they've been expanding since 1948.

So is total war the solution?

Of course it fucking is. It always is for us upright apes. Total war will solve a whole bunch of Israeli problems but start a whole set of new ones for the wider world. By attacking Iran and provoking an Iranian proxy response against Israel, the IDF will finally get to settle the Southern Lebanon, Gaza, Golan Heights and illegal settlement problem once and for all. All with the added bonus of setting back Iran's shitty nuke program a few years. Sure, the Iranian's will launch some of their semi accurate Shahab 3s back at Israel, maybe even aiming for the Israeli nuke facility at Dimona in the hopes of whipping up some Geiger counter juice of their own.

Will Israel need US support? Sure. But they won't get that by simply asking. Even if the answer is "no", Netanyahu knows he can just act and drag the Americans in by default. He knows the Iranian response to an attack will be to use every tactic in the playbook once the pew-pew starts and Natanz is burning. One tactic will be mining the shallow waters of the Gulf and, quite possibly, firing Chinese Silkworm missiles at all those fat oil tankers lumbering off the Iranian coast with 40% of seaborne world oil supply in their bellies. Oil prices will shoot through the roof overnight, the brittle American and Euro economies will crash dive and the US will be forced into this thing in a big way.

Sure, the Chinese and Russians will be pissed but will they get involved in the shooting and kick start WWIII? Probably not. It'll be more fun for them to just sit back and watch the death spasms of American superpower. I'll admit that I've said before that WWIII is on the table but the Russkis and Chinese will probably just play the waiting game and supply Iran with fucktons of weaponry while issuing angry protests at the UN and secretly laughing their asses off. That's the smart move. They can win this thing just by sitting back and watching the fireworks. Sure, the world economy will tank but Russian and Chinese populations are better suited to austerity than all the spoiled assholes in Western countries who'll shit a brick when they can't afford a new flatscreen.

Thing is, the Iranian threat to Gulf shipping will be very hard to counter without filling the skies over Iran with drones and aircraft and even then, how do you stop hundreds of Iranian speedboats dropping mines into the Straits of Hormuz? And, more interestingly, how do you pay for it all? Just the theoretical threat of mines in the Gulf is enough to push insurance rates on tankers through the roof. There goes your cheap commute from suburbia! Limited ground invasion? Western boots on the ground in Iran (if it played out like that) could be considered a proxy resource war too far by the Russkis and Chinese, especially since Iran is sitting on the 4th largest oil deposit on the planet.

Let's face it, this war is scary as hell.

In fact, it's so scary, I can't believe it will actually happen. I'm sure the US is pressuring Israel behind the scenes not to go ahead with their dream strike. Sure, the air waves in the US and Europe are getting flooded right now with Iranian nuke bullshit, preparing the public for the possibility of war by making it seem like Iran will soon have a multiple stage ICBM capable of raining down mega tonnage on New York City. And the average Fox News viewer probably believes it too. After all, the dumb fuck public are still scared by a bunch of idiots doing that monkey bar training thing, footage the media roll out every time they want you to be scared of bad guys in some foreign desert somewhere.

But the scariest caveat in all of this is the shaky financial status of Western economies.

Major powers going broke is historically a war creating environment.

With Occupy Wall Street protests everywhere, small but worrying to the Western oligarchy, and Europe and the US teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the scariest part is that total wars are handy ways to wipe financial slates clean, clear the streets of 'unpatriotic' long hairs and grab the resources you need to fund the extravagant life styles people in the West have grown used to. If this war does happen, that'll be pretty much confirmation that the Western oligarchy has run out of ideas on how to solve its insolvency and bankruptcy problem.

Stockpile popcorn. Stay tuned. I still believe this war can't happen but of course, that's assuming we're living in a world run by rational men and I'm not so sure anymore, if we live in that world.

129 comments:

You rule, man. I always enjoy these posts. I just bought myself another pistol today and continue to build a stockpile of water, food, guns and ammo. This article makes me think maybe I'm not as paranoid as I think.

You kick ass, dude. I always love your articles. I just tilled another 10' by 7' section of my yard today and continue to build a stockpile of seeds, fertilizer, tools and lumber. This article makes me think maybe I'm not as paranoid as I think.

For the record, if you think you're paranoid, you shouldn't buy a gun.

I mostly agree with you, but I am surprised that you have missed out the greater (more realistic) implications of an attack of Iran would be and that of Lebanon.

Firstly an attack of Lebanon, on the scale of 2006, would bring in the ire of Turkey, a country which has just in recent years, signed multiple agreements with Lebanon and their neighbors (including Syria, but relations with them, have gone sour), meaning that any significant attack on Lebanon, would bring the crashing force of Turkey and the UN against Israel. (We should remember that it was Israel in 2006 who fired the first bullet)

As for Iran, both China and Russia have said openly that there will be dire consequences for Israel if they attack Iran. Making such an attack, economically and diplomatically lethal for the Israel's to do.

And finally you miss out completely that Israel will not attack Iran without the consent of Washington, and if you ask me, I really don't think Obama and the White House need more trouble in the region, especially if this future conflict brings it into conflict with Turkey, Russia and China, three states which it depends on for different reasons (excluding Russia though).

But as you have stated, the Israeli right politicians are pretty crazy, so perhaps they might just pass all those checks and attack Iran anyway, which would only bring them into international isolation, even from the United States (if the US did not warrant the attack)

Claims to own land based off of an ancient book doesn't exactly make you the victim. I was in Lebanon 2006 touring Beirut. Abducting Israeli soldiers isn't an excuse for a military response that extreme.

Especially when the land was never Israel's to begin with. DNA tests show most Israeli's are German and other European Jews (90 some %). They were in Jersulaem more than 2000 years ago - that means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING today, except to Israelis (zionists) trying to justify their position there. And the Irgun invented modern terrorism, suicide bombing the King David Hotel to push the Brits out of Palestine (Britian opened up the Sinai/Palestine front to get more war money from the Rothschilds - people need to open their eyes and see the zionists have been eyeing Palestine since before 1900, it just took 2 world wars for them for them to finally get what they wanted.

Persians have been defending their land for thousands of years. Even after Greeks, Arabs, and Mongols occupied Persia, Iranians revolted and kicked them out. We Persians will not tolerant foreign forces taking over our country and dictating us what to do. Beware. Let it be America. Let it be Israel. The only way you could win us if you nuke us, which will be the stupidest thing to do because it will backlash a whole rain of nukes from China and Russia on you. Sure our government is evil. Sure we don't have rights. But Israel and America's intentions are not our freedom. But our oil and geopolitical gains. We will defend our country and kill every single one of you. This shit ain't no 300. This is reality. Iran is no Iraq or Afghanistan. We are strong and we will defend our country and kill your sons and daughters who invade us. Don't fuck with Iran.

Thank you war tard, your articles just keeps on getting better and better.

The thing most westerners don't get about Iran is the sheer massiveness of it and the strategic depth that offers. A ground invasion will most likely get bogged down in the Zagros mountains while the high oil prices continue to drain the economy.

The other aspect is the spill over effect it may have on the surrounding regions. Greece may use this as an opportunity to take back Cyprus from Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan may want to renew the conflict over nagorno karabakh, and the Kurds may make a bid for independence with Iran and Syria weakened.

So watz wrong if Israel is planning to attack Iran. These fucking Arabian countries deserve it. Where the fuck were you when these losers together attacked Israel, a state which was hardly into existence and had no semblance of a real army. Go ahead Israel, wipe out these bastards from the face of this Earth.

Yeah right asshole!! The fact is the Jews r running scared of Iran, if not they would have attacked a long time ago. They know wat they suffered in 2006, go study 2006 war, the details are available on the web, Hezbollah is trained by IRGC, btw check out that battle where a Hezbollah division kicked asses of the so called elite Golani brigades of the IDF

Rahul: U SOUND Indian IT SEEMS.Indians ARE ALL cheaters and your brain is not at all working. You do not even know geography? what r u? some illegitimate child of a naked kumbh mela idiot. Go back to where u belong Ganga Nadie par..

Rahul let me just say that you are a moron. Iran is not a Arabic country not it is situated in Arabian plateau. . did you know iran and israel has close ties up until 1979.that is right, they where allies. iran after Isreal has the second largest jewish population. so please stop making foolish stupid comments. you are just another imbecile.

I would argue that the United States really wants this war. Remember we are not controlled by a rational government that despises war. Our leaders are owned by multinational corporations who stand to make billions off the conflict.

Plus it would allow the completion of the U.S. police state.

Americans are broke, not spending and are starting to question the lopsided distribution of wealth in this country. Corporate profits are looking to dramatically break downward. A major war really is the only solution that will maintain the status quo. Expect it soon.

This is absolutely the truth. All the wall street crooks think they will never get caught or nothing bad will happen to them. They will fund the chickenhawk politicians and instigate a war with Iran. The US is doing it right now. They are pushing Iran into a very tight corner, just like the US did to Japan before WWII. Don't be surprised when the result is the same.

I reckon it's all bluff. Why would you go around announcing you are going to strike. If you were serious you would just do it. They just want to up the sanctions in the UN and hope Mossad and the CIA get the Iranians to overthrow the Mullahs.

War with Iran want only be a war with Iran and its proxies (Lebanon and Syria). It will serve as a proxy for the Russians and possibly the Chinese, it will have Pakistani and Afghanistani insurgents support, and Turkey can potentially leave NATO if Europe invades Iran. On the other side it will be NATO, Israel, Saudi Arabia and possibly India. If this is not a prelude to WW3, I don’t know what is.

I've got a suspicion that Isreali leadership is waiting to see who the Americans field for a Republican candidate. If it is someone unsympathetic to their goals (aka Ron Paul) then they'll launch war before the election to force America along before it's too late.

Why the F did Obama sell the latest bunker-busters to Israel? Just a weak moment? I hope that he doesn't see his re-election as needing yet more aggro (after Bin Laden, Qadaffi). War is just too attractive when you've got the world's biggest army.

Rahul, you better understand well that if Arab countries are attacked then the Motor Cycle you are using to go to your college have to scrapped and your father should buy you a donkey for your travel, because it is the Arab nations who are pumping your country with non-stop liquid gold which literally runs your bike & in fact your nation. Shut up and go to school, participating in these issues is not your job.

You right on all account. On one major issue you didn't have much elaboration and I think it is very very important, and that is: with arab spring, all those previously friendly arab neighbors (Egypt, Tunesia, Moraco, even Jordan, ...) they are all either in the hands of anti-isreali masses or have to bow to them in the event of a war! so this war will be the chance the arabs have been waiting for to pour out against Isreal, and isreal knows this and that will actually forces it to act sooner rather than later! before the whole region is totally and officially against them

They don't seem to be so worried... Knowing the Mossad, they probably had a hand in these "Democratic" movements. Look up the intentions of the Neo-cons. These are all countries they previously planned to take over.

FUBAR I know, But what about a joint US/Saudi effort? USAF as facilitator (tankers, EW, Recon + the odd pilot or 10) & Saudi as the strike team. Keeps Israel out of the picture, plays well on the US media... Arabs taking care of Arab business (yes, I know about the who Persian/Arab thing). Plenty of US assets in the Kingdom to keep a counter-attack in check.

Saudia Arabia is an Islamic country. Do you really think the population will stand by while the Royal Family supports war against other Muslims??? The whole family will be chopped into little pieces and pissed on.

What a bunch of crap. War is retarded and Israelis perfectly understand that defeating Hizbollah, Hamas and then grabbing more land would NEVER be a permanent solution. Israelis want to live in peace, and the only way to obtain that is to live in peace with Arabs. Unfortunately, Arabs are not interested in peace (and every poll states so) and wants the Jews to be dead. There are Arabs in Israel, and why can't there be Jews in the West Bank?

Now, Mr. Retard, listen closely and try to understand the following: it was not too long ago that during a war over one million Jewish children were murdered in cold blood. Today, there are over one million Jewish children living in a threatened tiny country...no one is going to fuck with them.

Of course you're an Anti-Semite. You criticize the policies of a certain country, and that makes you Hitler himself. (The Iranians are also Hitlers. And anyone who voted yes in the UNESCO. There are so many people with tiny mustaches it's not even funny any more.)Your article summed up the things quite nicely. You forgot to mention that add to this, Bibi has Churchill-complex, and he wants to prove he's Churchill himself by attacking another country. Quite ironic, but what the hell. I've been having chills since I've read about this thing the first time. We're in a big pool of shit if these lunatics indeed attack. That little piece of land will cause some serious shitstorm some day; it might as well be soon.

yOU ARE A LITTLE TOO OLD TOBE PULLING YOUR WIENIE ANGRYRAT.ISRAEL IS THE GREATIST THREAT TO PEACE THE WORLD HAS EVER KNOWN. HOW WOULD YOU LIKE IT IF SOME SOLDIERS CAME TO YOUR HOUSE AND TOLD YOU THEY WERE GOING TO DEMOISH FOR SOME SETTLERS TO MOVE IN. AND DONT GIVE ME ANY OF THAT BIBLICAL BULLSHIT.

Anyone who disagrees with the racist, Zionist agenda is "anti-Semitic". Of course, nobody but you people banging your head into the West Wall over and over (brain damage) know you call the kettle black and mention the holocaust to somehow justify your barbaric, Nazi like behavior. Jews should go back to Germany and halt die Klappe. Dismiss me as an anti-semite, it will make your bullshit easier to swallow.

"Holocaust Card"...you're a riot Alice. The river card for you and your sycophants is that contending Israeli right wingers are leading that country into a war with Iran with an intent of territorial expansion shows a total lack of understanding of the situation. And the showdown is that those who claim Jews shout anti-semite or nazi towards anyone who is critical of Israel is a loser. Critics are honored. A good argument may make things clearer.

Just exactly what territorial expansion are the Israelis trying to achieve if they attack Iran? Occupying Iran? Egypt? Lebanon? Syria? Retaking the Gaza Strip which they voluntarily vacated years ago? The West Bank, which they offered to both Jordan and Egypt (neither wanted it) so they can live among a mob of murderous Arabs? I wonder what alternative universe you paranoid nitwits inhabit.

First, Hizbullah is a Lebanese movement and they're currently in power. Iran isn't just going to be able to activate them like they're the 101st airborne.

Second, this is all predicated on an Iranian response, so what happens if the Iranians are smart enough to do nothing?

By all accounts they know when not to shoot. The temptation, for 10 years, must have been to send crates of TOW missiles and their Misagah-1 MANPADS and give the insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan the teeth to knock out coalition air and armor reliably. They didn't. Iran could have done all kinds of crazy shit with two guerrilla wars on the border, but they haven't. The guardian council seems to understand long term strategic thinking at least.

So imagine this scenario. Israel launches 20% of it's combat air force and all of it's tankers in a raid against known Iranian nuke sites. Iran manages to take down a handful of Israeli aircraft and captures 2 or 3 pilots. Iran's nuclear program is set back a few years, but they announce their intention to continue. Then does nothing at all, militarily.

Israel is left with more Gilead Shalits causing public hysteria and Iran that's redoubling it's nuclear program while looking completely justified in doing so to the rest of the world. They might even give Russia and China an excuse to break the sanctions Regime and sell the Iranians enough top range gear to make a repeat performance impossible.

If Iran doesn't play along, then all Israel manages with this attack is to make themselves look even more like a pack of sanguinary incompetents than they do already.

Sure, that's one possible scenario predicated on the same number of unknown hypotheticals as my article.

Let's face it, we're dealing with the unpredictable here. Personally, I find your scenario more far fetched than mine because yours is based entirely on Iranian restraint. I think you're grasping at straws just to prove me wrong. Are you seriously saying the theocrats in Iran that had no problem gunning down their own young people on the streets of Tehran while the world watched are going to just sit there while Natanz and Bushehr are burning and spewing radiation from an attack conducted by their arch enemy Israel?

Personally, I expect to see a "bigger war" embroil from any Israeli attack. Gerald Celente is correct about one thing. "In order to keep control of the people and get their minds off the economy, they'll take us to war." America will jump at the opportunity for getting involved and try to turn it into a bigger conflict. Russia and China also have problems. Russia has a growing nationalist movement which is one of the most frightening prospects for the present government. China is on borrowed time. Its citizens are starting to expect the lifestyle of the "West". If exports dry up to the Western world and China takes a big plunge economically, the Chinese wouldn't mind turning to the gun to sort things out.

A war for the "big powers" would be perfect at this stage. Focus populations on "the Great War" rather then on their declining lifestyles and revolutions against the government.

People never expected their to be a war in 1914 either. Many brushed off any ideas at the time, using the same "we're all trading now, there's no point to go to war anymore." Yet it happened and completely laid down the seeds for the rest of the century (WWII, Cold War, etc). I expect a big conflict in the 2010s which will completely change the world and its beliefs for the 21st century.

It won't be a WWI tier conflict but it will be something completely unimaginable to us. I don't predict MAD but I do predict it'll be destructive and life changing.

If there is a war over there. There will be a war in the U.S. The U.S was duped into WW1.."over there, over there". Woodrow Wilson should have been hanged. WWII .. for what. Fighting Nazis for commies. WE fought japs for Mao and nazis for Stalin. What a waste. Those same type of kooks that got the U.S into those wars are itching to get the U.S. into another major campaign. I can't wait to watch the Mexicans in the southwest to say "hell no gringo."

OMG I'm sure non of you even lives in the area, you have no fucking idea about the real situation in the region!(sorry for the speling mistakes in advance) it is far more complex then- poor peacfull palastinies and greedy angry israelies as you introducethem here. As you have said yourself dear War tard, the palastinies have understood that PR is their only way to fight Israel, and undeed theire doing that very well, and you all just listen and eat all the shit theire feeding you whithout even question in for a second. not all you get from your media is true, for exeple: did you know that israel get bombs on her cities every day?? yes every day! the israeli PR sucks! Im an israeli student and trust me not me or anyone of my friends want war, we just want this hole thing to be fucking over. Buy the way chack your facts again, the west bank for exemple was jordanian territory that they GAVE UP! oh and if israel really wants war they woudnt talk about it so loudly so you can all relax nothing is going to happen.

no all the shit u're saying is wrong i'm a palestinian how live in jordan i won't to go back to my land which you say it's u're land too i wont this hall thing to end i wonna live in peace with the people around me i got board of war and injustice.i guess you don't know the history will or you know the history and hide it when israel was found in the 1948 it was found on tragedy, hundred of thousands were exiled form there land were israel is know, to the west bank jordan egypt syria lebanon, why because they are not jewish. and this the most racial thing and it's inhuman thing i could hear.i'm not like the others how say we shouldn't get all the jews out of the holly land because they are just like you they don't like any one to be in the land but themselves. I ONLY WANT PEACE AND WONT TO BE IN MY HOME LAND WERE I DO BELONG.I DON'T BELONG TO THE LAND EAST OF THE JORDAN RIVER I BELONG TO LAND WEST OF THE JORDAN RIVER. YOU CAN CALL IT WHAT EVER YOU WANT PALESTINE ISRAEL, BUT THAT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACT THAT I BELONG TO THERE AND WILL GO THERENO MATTER WHAT THE PRICE IS

WT: I'm not trying to prove you wrong, I'm just suggesting an alternate outcome, based on the idea that the Iranian leadership is focused on survival. That's why they're willing to send their militia after the green revolution.

We also know they're capable of serious self restraint. I mean think about it, you've got 100,000 Americans right across the border, blundering around, you've got your militias there, you've got modern weapons that could cause them serious headaches, you've got people in country, and the most you do is maybe provide people fighting the Americans some funding and some training and support?

They know the Americans are going home eventually and when they do, you'll have a reliable Shi'ite ally rather than a deadly Bathist enemy, so why risk fucking up a good thing? That's what I mean when I say they have shown restraint.

I can't see how any of the things Iran could do to respond militarily necessarily turn out well for them though. There's always the lingering "And then what?" question.

Doing nothing might get the sanctions broken, and Israel further isolated all without them having to risk anything. Pushing all of the fuck you buttons risks a full scale US attack. Sure they might collapse the US economy by cutting the oil supply, but that's going to be cold comfort if they've managed to zap you with a hellfire missile before you ever get to see it.

If public outcry over the attacks threatens the regime itself, well, that might make them do something stupid.

Hezbollah is running the government of Lebanon now. Are they grateful enough to their co-coreligionists and benefactors that they'll start a possibly suicidal war on their behalf? Maybe. Proxies always have a nasty habit of following their own interests though. Saddam was a US proxy against Iran, Iran was a US proxy against the Soviet Union. Pakistan was a US proxy against India and the Soviet Union.

I was basing the scenario for the attack on this CSIS study:

http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf

It's not without risk for Israel. Particularly if the Iranians aren't entirely bluffing about having acquired some S-300's by hook or by crook.

And yeah, the Iranians are probably bluffing on having the S-300 system. They claim to have two batteries obtained from Belarus (I've written about that elsewhere on this blog) and displayed the vehicles at a military parade in Tehran last spring. Those sure would make the potential attack more difficult.

Anon 1:35 Thanks for the question. War Tard is totally off base because the Israeli government is not going to be influenced by the extreme right wingers who are a very small segment of the voting population. The large majority of voting Israelis are against any territorial expansion involving the explusion of Arabs from their homes. While war may or may not be coming War Tard's basic premise was wrong.

I believe war is coming, but it will not be started by an Israeli attack. I believe that there is a lot of war planning going on between Israel the the Sunni Arabs, especially in Saudi Arabia the you realize. That the war will begin between the Sunni Arab States and Iran. Iran will try to take out an American aircraft carrier and the Saudi oil production facilities (the lose of which would plunge the world into crisis). Israeli would use this opportunity to help protect Saudi Arabia, destroy the nuclear facilities, and destroy the military arm of Hezbollah and Hamas.

Again, I do not believe Israel or America will attack. It is not politically viable in either country. But coming to the aid of Saudi Arabia, and protecting the world's oil supply (the main reason we are in the middle east) will allow us a politically viable and supported reason to enter the fray.

Meanwhile, we should get that damn aircraft carrier out of the Persian Gulf...it is a freakin sitting duck for a couple dozen silk worms and kamikazi pilots.

Anon 1:15 You can't form a government in the Knesset without the right-wingers. Likud and it's Menachem Begin acolytes are the embodiment of religious extremists. Personally, I think all the Israeli's should come and live in Australia. We have heaps of shithole desert land, complete with an oppressed indigenous population who had their land stolen. It'll be just like home!

Anon 1:25 Whether or not a country goes to war with territorial expansion as a goal is a huge difference. War Tard's misinterpretation of the power of the extreme right wing while ignoring the voting power of the majority of Israelis is a major mistake. The rest of his post about who is going to blow up what is typical stuff. Also, I am not apologizing for anyone. Did you move the aircraft carrier yet? You better.

Anon 1:25 I will totally agree with War Tard in one sense...this war, if it happens, is scary as hell. Besides Saudi Arabian oil being cut off, watch China use the confusion to attack Taiwan. What's an Obama going to do?

It's hard not to agree with WT, but I don't think a war is going to happen here for at least another three or four years. This is cause the casualties from the Syria uprising has not reached the point to receive full UN support for intervention and If America and Israel are to continue smelling like a flower they need to prove that Iran is blood hungry and best way to do that is force it into action via Syria first. Maybe 15k-20k more to go and the Arab League is going to have to act in one way or another opening up for all kinds of munchies.

Well i see the kosher crowd has got wind of your article... expect more retarded comments.

Anyways, great writing. I like how you kept everything flowing smoothly. It was an easy read.

Dont forget the Syrians. They signed an mutual pact with Iran in case either country was invaded or attacked.

Syrian Military is no joke either. Not as advanced as Israels but that doesn't matter. Combined with Iran and all of Irans Southern Lebanese proxies, they'll be able to hit Israel with a surprising blow. Syria has all the latest Russian anti-tank MANPADS from Russia.

Also, the semi-contained Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt who is no ally of Israel. In a wider regional war, they would join ground forces as foot soldiers even though they're Sunni and not Shia. They've already made this announcement.

Also, Israel's Left is growing more and more upset with Netanyahu's Bolshevik Likud party. That may be for show, or just a bunch of spoiled Israeli college kids. But still, there were mass protest in the streets of Tel Aviv by the 100's of thousands this summer.

Interesting, but I don't see an Israel v Iran war today as being a rerun of 1948. The Sunni Arabs right now are too weak (Egypt and Syria are destabilzing) to rally concertedly against Israel, the Saudi petro kingdom fears Shia power more than its idealogical hatred of Zionism and Iraq is under Western control. The forces simply aren't there.

Lebanon and Iran's proxy Shia army are target one for Israeli war planners and the greatest threat right now to Israeli hegemony.

I never said the Sunni Arabs "as a whole" would attack Israel. I said the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt would lend its hand against Israel in a 'Total War' scenario. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood does not represent all Sunni's.

I never said Saudi Arabia would join Iran in an attack against Israel.

Iraq is not under Western Control. Its a Civil War that will continue after the removal of US Troops. A Civil war that the Pro Iranian Shia's will win... and in many areas already have.

Syria has not destabilized. Thats just Israeli propaganda in the same realm of Iran supposedly falling apart during its CIA/Mossad led 'color revolution'.

Syria just had a million man rally in support of Assad. Which of course was quickly buried in the news.

Anon from Nov 16th 2:41 AM. Your totally delusional dude. Syria is so destabilized that it got kicked from the Arab League and both its neighbors Turkey and Jordan are telling Assad to get lost, Iraq is begging US to stay and maintain order so they aint got the stomach to face Israel and Europe invasion again. Iran is just retarded and cant even manage their missile bases without blowing one up, let alone coordinating a response against Israel and Europe and Egypt lost its revolution the military...wake up and smell the humus.

As an Iranian active in exile in politics and very familiar with domestic and international affairs, I enjoy reading your blog. You know this shit quite well. US media just keeps repeating same shit without deep analysis of what the real conflict is about. Thanks for writing these.

saif al islam article - pronto. did you hear the NTC have made some hill-billie Osama Al-Juwali the defence minister in the transitional government? no doubt in exchange for saif (dead or alive). to top it off the ICC does not mind libya conducting the saifs trial provided it is fair. right...

I like War Tard's writing style, but I find the basic premise of this post to be flawed. Israel's dealings with the Arabs since their last big dust up in 1973 do not seem consistent with a desire for territorial expansion. Returning the Sinai to Egypt (a deal done by right wing PM Menachem Begin), Oslo Accords giving Palestinians partial autonomy, and withdrawal from South Lebanon all bely War Tard's thesis that expansionism is driving Israel's geopolitical calculations.

War Tard's premise is that Israel's right wants war with Iran because it is expansionist. That's the same right under that consummated the 1978 deal with Egypt that gave back the Sinai - which is many times the size of Israel proper. Also the same right that withdrew from Gaza in 2005. These were hardly expansionist moves.

Nevertheless, since you limit the expansionism premise further by referring strictly to the West Bank (I assume that's what you mean by "Palestine" since Israel has long since withdrawn from Gaza), you should consider the fact that Israel offered to return that same West Bank 44 years ago (along with all other territory won in the 1967 war) in exchange for recognition and normalized relations. This offer was rejected by the Arabs after the Khartoum Conference in August 1967.

So what we're left with is the premise that the Israeli right's desire to "expand" by building towns in the West Bank after 1967 animates their entire geopolitical strategy, which includes war with Iran. This, to me, is problematic in two respects: 1) It is not consistent with the historical record; and 2) it fails to explain how Israel achieves its expansionist goals by going to war with Iran and Hizbollah.

Have you noticed that China says that anyone who fights Iran will have to fight them too. So, in attacking Iran, Israel will also have to fight China--now that is Biblical proportions. And we (the U.S.) wouldn't be able to join in because you can't borrow money from China to fight China, can you? You see China gets its gas and oil from Iran and it doesn't really care about the Bible or who is chosen or not. This has muted the war talk a little except in the Republican debates where everyone seems super trigger happy for a war with Iran, and no commentator has asked about the China issue of fighting a war with someone who controls your purse strings. I always thought that Israel wanted to fight Iran to just get rid of the idea of Iran being there because it ruins the fantasy that the suburbs of Jerusalem are not Southern California and they want to stop all those Israelis from moving to Southern California. Are there 2 million Israeli Xpats now. What happens if no one is left in Israel to fight Iran and China because the population has gone X pat to Europe and the U.S.? No that is the fear of Israel--depopulation due to not wanting to be in the line of fire.

Or when did the U.S. and Israel enter into a mutual defense treaty? This is a war of words that has been going on now forEVER. And I personally am sick of it. Also, I'm sick of the constant pressure for sanctions against Iran and more sanctions against Iran. But, yes, China has "said" that it would consider an act of war against Iran or Pakistan as agression against China. Similarly to the way that Russia seems to be protective of Syria. The reason that the U.S. and Israel have no mutual defense treaty (at least as I understand it) is because the U.S. needs solid borders and Israel refuses to define its borders. But listen, even now our new Secretary laments Israel's "lack of friends" in the region--whatever that means. We simply have no money to enter into another war with unintended consequences (such as China pulling the plug?). No, Israel is going to have to fight this one with its own blood and on its own turf.

Rahul, you better understand well that if Arab countries are attacked then the Motor Cycle you are using to go to your college have to scrapped and your father should buy you a donkey for your travel, because it is the Arab nations who are pumping your country with non-stop liquid gold which literally runs your bike & in fact your nation. Shut up and go to school, participating in these issues is not your job.

Israel is state of USA .... it was built to fuck muslim countries and as long islamist groups so called terrorists, west has reasons to fuck with them... well here is the problem, what happens to good ppl who just want to live like us ? they have to pay with their lives so west can live better cheaper gas and oil ?

Israel has every right to the land they own and some. Original Palestine was divided into Jordan that is 100% more land then Israel got..thus conceding even more land to the Arabs is just letting their pushy ways win. And letting all that good land go to waste as the Arabs are pretty content with living in dirty shacks...

When did Israel offer to withdraw from the West Bank following the '67 war? Israel agreed to withdraw from the Sinai and Golan in exchange for peace treaties with Egypt and Syria, but as far as I know, they never said they would be leaving the West Bank.

You can read about it in detail in Michael Oren's "Six Days of War." I'm too lazy to find a real source on line, but from Wikipedia:

"Immediately after the war, on June 19, 1967, the Israeli government offered to return the Golan Heights to Syria, the Sinai to Egypt and most of the West Bank to Jordan in exchange for peace. At the Khartoum Summit in September, the Arab parties responded to this overture by declaring "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and no negotiations with Israel."

Hi there. I love your posts about the potential for conflict here. Sometimes I wonder, wait a minute, did I write this? I have been saying this shit forever!

Particularly, I like what you say about China and Russia sitting back and chilling while Israel and the US watch their hegemony go down in flames. But in a discussion to which this post was linked, someone brought up the idea of Pakistan, which does have nuclear weapons, and what they might do in response, if anything. I was wondering what your thoughts are on that?

Simple: Sunni vs Shia. Islamad will side with Riyadh. The Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline will likely never be built, certainly not with all this tension surrounding Iran. If the electricity Pakistan draws from Iran is stopped, Pakistan will have to build more dams in Kashmir / Azad Kashmir, further degrading the environment of that region and irritating India, etc.

On the one hand... most of what you are saying is spot on and it's really nothing new. It's been going on for a long time. Of course Everyone knows israel has nukes and of course israel really isn't as worried about Iran as they act like they are. Of course iran knows this too.

But on the other hand, there's a side of me that that really doesn't care about any of that. These idiots have been running around waving their stupid suicide bombs and korans around for way too long. It is time someone bomb them into oblivion. And as far as the Chinese and the Russian are concerned... who gives a care really? We all know what they would really do if they only had the capability... which they don't. Maybe... if they really want a fight... it's time we unleash the dragon and get this thing over with once and for all. If it's not a war on Islam and Communism and illegitimate dictatorships then it should be. Furthermore, if world war 3 does break out... I am ready to die knowing one thing in assuredness. We will definitely win. And that's a fact. All biblical and superstitious nonsense aside... we have the greatest military power ever assembled on this planet by a long long way and it's not even a close contest. If it does happen we will blast them all into complete oblivion.

One last thought... in case anyone ever wondered what all those underground complexes we've been building all over the country for years are really for... it's not to survive some apocalypse or hide out like scared rats... it's a source from which to unleash the devastating final assault against all who oppose us in the event that this thing really does go down and the bombs do fly. And you can bet that we're pulling out ALL the stops. I don't think a list is required here. I think every reasonably knowledgeable person knows what this means. We will either win this planet... or we will exterminate it.

God is not partial to our little games here... much to the dismay of some. He/She/It whatever... is merely watching and laughing (kind of like what you said above about the Russians and the Chinese) The technology exists to completely exterminate all life on this planet and start all over again. Therefore there is no real incentive to do this other than mutually insured destruction. So kind of like you said about nuclear weapons being the ultimate peacekeeper... I say nuclear weapons are completely obsolete and there are much better peacekeepers than that now just waiting for an opportunity to be unleashed.

The real superpower is the one who owns the resources... not america. So the superpower will not die because they are the ones with all the assets and they keep on and keep on getting richer no matter what happens to the rest of us. And they are the ones who own the Military. China and Russia will go bankrupt without america... or more specifically without the banks! Who really own everything.

These Americans and this blog owner is very ignorant and racist about Iran like most Americans. I'm Iranian and I can tell you that most Iranians love America and Israel, we only hate Arabs.

Why you hate Iran:1. You think we're brown (see Arabdinejad aka Ahmadinejad, our nations leader, and an ethnic Arab), we're not. Iranians are ethnically Indo-European, we are Mediterranean and Caucasian, we are not brown and have no Negroid blood.2. You think Iran is sand, Iran is not sand or West Bank style scenery, Iran is a snowy and grassy country full of beautiful mountains. Iran is like Switzerland (maybe not as cold though).3. You think we're religious, we're not. Most Iranians are under 40 and hate Islam, Islam is not our identity. For example, I am Zoroastrian and wear my Zoroastrian necklace to school everyday.4. You think we love our government, we don't. Iranians actually hate the Islamic Republic, because it's Arab backed and subverts our indigenous culture. Iranians are White Indo-Europeans, we do not want Arab Semitic law.

My city: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y_AqbcGFGg#t=0m40s(please ignore the "hijabs" or chadors as we call them, they are forced by Islamic law, but they will be burned in the streets eventually along with Arabs and Turks when we overthrow this regime)

Israel should take the innocent palestinians out of the refugee camps they shoved them in to, give them back their land with an apology and no one will bother with them. But truth is, every one hates jews, they stole a country, use powerful forces against the palestinians aka rock throwers since they have no weapons, and then they say "Iran is pointing nuclear force at us!!" Get real and return what you stole you fucking yahoody. Quran says that Israel will be released from the Jews and looks like this is happening sooner than expected.

They don't seem to be so worried... Knowing the Mossad, they probably had a hand in these "Democratic" movements. Look up the intentions of the Neo-cons. These are all countries they previously planned to take over.

What the hell are we thinking? How many times have we heard there is no money for the poor. There is no money for local government. Where in the hell are we going to get money for another war? I knew when they withdrew troops from "war" they were only doing that in anticipation of invading Iran. Redeployment. And that appears to be closer than I had imagined. Maybe we should all ask for tax increases to pay for another war? If we can use Israel's desire to attack Iran then this is one big opportunity for the USA to do what our government has wanted to do for some time now. Another Afganistan. Another Iraq. Using Israel as bait? We don't help the slaughter of human life in other countries. But Israel wants to go to war the USA says we will have your back. Citizens in this great country of ours have to go to the streets once again in force and stop this war monger government from sacrificing our young men. I am a VietNam veteran and I am totally ashamed that inteligent people, voted into office, are so infuenced by their desires to fight the "enemy". Money is no object. Beating our breasts. The powerful USA is a beast. No one can beat us. So we lose a few lives along the way. Those in Congress will go home to their families and enjoy them. Those in combat will wonder why they have to be there to protect poor Israel. Little sister of ours. If I were a Muslim I would be highly offended listening to and watching our reaction to Israel going after Iran with the USA pushing them from behind.

Oh please...Stop the "we don't want to give up our land" comments. The Indians here in this country said that a century ago. They still do. Where did that get them. Shouldn't we give them back their land? We made a lot of money off of them in John Wayne movies.

Just thought the wartards here would enjoy the readhttp://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/154089Looks like the Iranians have the entire coast not only mined but dug out with tunnels...ground offensive would be suicide until we can get a good number of drones into the area to offset this advantage...just hope we stick to drones here in general

Yeah, stumbled upon this looking for a half decent analysis of EXACTLY THE QUESTION THAT IS THE TITLE! Instead of a half decent analysis I found a fucking epic one... If I had to guess, from everything that's been happening, the western "support" of the "syrian opposition" the cubanesqueness of the "government in exile", the Israeli posturing, the white house leaks, Russia and china not backing down, so far at least, this isn't looking good...I love your last paragraph wartard, when did we ever live in that world? I can't remember it, I am not quite yet thirty, maybe it was before I was born?

Ugh, its a good article let down by an overly simplistic view of the actors motivations. Israel doesn't want the settlements. It views them as security against attack from the east originally and now as security against attack from the west bank. While there is no peace politicians will keep playing to their bases, aka the far right settlement bloc. But I an guarantee you Israel would dismantle all the settlements outside Jerusalem n a heartbeat if it was convinced that a durable peace was at hand. Israels motivations to attack Iran are strategic in nature. It does not want to be under siege. Iran getting nukes will allow it to power project and severely limit Israel's ability to preemptively take out security threats before they impact Israel. For example, no striking rocket sites in Lebanon as Iran will threaten nuclear fire.

Israel just authorized 5,500 new apartments in East Jerusalem despite overwhelming world opinion. A whole new Settlement designed to ring East Jerusalem and banish the idea forever that a two state solution with East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital.

WT's opinion a year ago is still right and if the Iranian attack on Iran happens in 2013, the whole world will be affected by Israeli intransigence.

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