2017-09-17

Why Did Real Estate Stocks Skyrocket in the Past 6 Months?

So the question is: In the past six months is the period of the country continue to tighten regulation of the property market, the property market is gradually cooling. Now, the regulation has been extended to the northeast and western regions, in which case, why real estate stocks also so cattle?

A few examples from the article:

Two days ago, our team of "Financial Powerhouse (ID: tttmoney8)" by National Bureau of Statistics has just released analysis of the current dangerous situation facing the housing market. In a nutshell - due to the inventory moving very quickly, the current average digestion cycle of new housing is only three months or so; overall, the average real estate digestion period (including office buildings, commercial property) is only over five months a. But the "office" and "commercial space business" is still very long period of digestion, were 10.6 months and 18.4 months.

In other words, residential developers to continue re-stocking phase (of course, there is still excess partial).

But this is far from the real estate reason leading shares rose.

The core reason is the rapid rise in land prices, so that value of the large land banks rose significantly.

...A large international investment bank for this housing prices made an estimate, this time scored above the land of housing prices is to spend 458 billion yuan, but now the value has risen to 9,000 billion yuan. In other words, this intrinsic value of housing prices rose by 450 billion yuan, but its total current market value of only 300 billion yuan (RMB) or so.

Do not think the developers have significant "cover" behavior, in my observation, this is a fast development, rapid sales characterized by housing prices, the products are mostly for just need to improve the type of demand, rarely engage in particularly high real estate. However, the past couple of years land prices rising too fast, so reserve value of the land it has quickly doubled!

And that is an important reason for the stock price soaring ward rate.