2015 Preview: January

January 1st, 2015

2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.

Weekend of January 2nd, 2015

The first weekend of the year has only one wide release: The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death. This is a sequel that is earning very little buzz compared to its predecessor and I seriously doubt it will find a major audience in theaters. Likewise, this weekend last year, the only wide release was Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, another sequel that was earning very little buzz compared to its predecessors. Unfortunately, Angel of Death isn't starting from the same position that The Marked Ones did, so it won't have as strong of an opening. Unless the holdovers outperform last year's batch, 2015 will start out losing in the year-over-year comparison.

Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones managed just $32 million during its theatrical run last January. This is compared to $54 million to its predecessor and nearly $90 million for the franchise average. The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death finds itself in a similar situation. The first film earned $54 million, so this film could earn as much as The Marked Ones did. I think that's a little too bullish, because the The Marked Ones had a more established franchise. On the other hand, there are strong signs that people had grown tired of the Paranormal Activity franchise before The Marked Ones was even greenlit. That isn't the case with The Woman in Black, so there's a chance it will beat the above box office potential.

Weekend of January 9th, 2015

There are two or three wide releases during the second weekend of the year. Only Taken 3 is opening wide, but Selma and possibly Inherent Vice will be expanding wide. Inherent Vice's per theater average is dropping faster than most limited releases, so it might not last two more weeks. Selma on the other hand, could get a boost from Awards Season nominations, but even at the highest end, it is a midlevel hit and no more. Taken 3, or Tak3n as it is sometimes written, will have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the week and it might even become the only $100 million hit of the month. It probably won't get there, but it will likely at least get close enough to be considered a financial success. This weekend last year, Lone Survivor expanded wide earning $37.85 million during its first wide weekend. The only other wide release was The Legend of Hercules, which made $8.87 million during its opening weekend. Taken 3 might earn $40 million, while Selma should top Hercules, so combined 2015 has a shot at winning the year-over-year comparison. It should be close.

Inherent Vice opened on December 12th and earned one of the best per theater averages for the year. However, while it started out great, its reviews are weaker than most successful limited releases and its per theater average fell faster as a result. With the wide release still two weeks away, there is a chance they will fall enough that the film will struggle to earn a truly wide release. If so, it will still earn some measure of mainstream success, but it won't get to $10 million, for instance. If it can expand truly wide, it still likely won't get to $50 million.

There is a very wide range for Selma's box office potential, because a lot of it depends on how well it does with Awards Season voters. Given its reviews, it could be one of the big winners on Oscar night. If that happens, it could hit $50 million, thanks to all of the free advertising. On the other hand, like all limited releases with planned wide expansions, things can go wrong along the way. Its opening per theater average suggests it has the potential to expand wide and its reviews suggest it won't collapse, so I'm choosing to stay optimistic. However, the potential for box office disappointment is here.

The final chapter in the Taken trilogy comes out this week. The buzz for Taken 3 isn't as strong as it was for Taken 2 and some think the franchise has overstayed its welcome. Additionally, Liam Neeson's last film in the genre, A Walk Among the Tombstones, failed to find an audience in theaters. It still has a shot at $100 million; in fact, it likely has the best shot out of any films opening this month. If it can earn $125 million or so, then it is a sign that the box office is recovering from the slump.

Weekend of January 16th, 2015

There are four, possibly five films opening or expanding wide this Martin Luther King, Jr weekend. The Wedding Ringer is the biggest of the films opening wide and it should have little trouble becoming at least a midlevel hit. Kevin Hart's breakout hit, Ride Along, opened this time last year and there's obviously going to be a lot of people comparing the two films, but you shouldn't get too enthusiastic. Its biggest competition is already in theaters. American Sniper opened in limited release on Christmas day and while it likely won't be an Awards Season player, it could be this year's Lone Survivor. I don't think it will do as well, but it does have the potential to be a surprise $100 million hit. Blackhat is a cyber-thriller, which is a genre that has never been huge at the box office. There is also Paddington, a film based on popular book series for children, at least it is popular in the U.K. I'm not sure it is popular enough here to warrant a movie. Finally there's Vice, which I no longer think is opening truly wide. There were four wide releases this weekend last year, including Ride Along, which earned $41.52 million during its opening weekend. I don't think any film will match that figure, so 2015 might suffer an early loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Chris Kyle is almost the archetypal American hero and his story is one that should be told. Its reviews are excellent for a wide release, while it's had one of the best per theater averages of the year during its opening weekend. On the downside, it is not award-worthy, which a lot of people were expecting. On the high end, it could open as strongly as Lone Survivor and cruise past $100 million. Even on the low end, it should at least match its production budget. I think it will be in a close race for first place opening weekend with The Wedding Ringer. I think it will come in second place, but it will have better legs.

Michael Mann's latest film is a thriller about cyber-terrorism. For the studio's sake, I really hope it it cost less than Michael Mann's average, because if this film cost $100 million like most of his recent films, there's little hope the studio will recoup its expenses. I'm not saying it looks like a bad movie. Michael Mann's hit to miss ratio with critics is very good. However, Blackhat is just not earning enough buzz to be anything more than a midlevel hit. In fact, the buzz suggests it won't even get there, not even with Thor in the lead. I don't think it will get much beyond $40 million domestically. On the other hand, the film seems tailor made to do strong business in China.

Paddington is based on a very popular British book series that first started in 1968. The film has made more than $30 million in the U.K. alone, which is about the same as $150 million to $175 million here, based on the relative size of the two markets. That's overly optimistic, obviously. Paddington doesn't have the same drawing power here as it does in its native market and it has a much weaker release date. That said, the lack of direct competition and amazing reviews could help it become a midlevel hit. Even if it is struggled to match its production budget, it has made enough internationally ($80 million and counting) that it will break even sometime on the home market.

Kevin Hart stars as a man who pretends to be the best man to help socially awkward men. His latest client is Josh Gad, who not only needs a best man in time for his wedding to Kaley Cuoco, but he also needs seven other groomsmen.

Kevin Hart has been a very popular stand-up comedian for years, but last year he also managed breakout success as a movie star with Ride Along. Given The Wedding Ringer's production budget, it might break even if it earns just half as much as as Ride Along did. That's great news, because the buzz for this film is not as strong as Ride Along's buzz was and its chances of reaching $100 million are very slim. There is still a chance, on the other hand.

Weekend of January 23rd, 2015

It's the weekend after a long weekend, which is bad news for the box office. None of the three films opening wide this weekend look like they will become even midlevel hits. The Boy Next Door is earning quiet buzz and rather weak buzz at that. On the other hand, it is reportedly a low-budget thriller, so it won't need to be a hit to break even eventually. Mortdecai is earning the loudest buzz for the week, but the buzz is also mixed with some thinking it is too bizarre to find an audience in theaters. Up next is Strange Magic, a digitally animated family film. The buzz here is deafeningly quiet. There was one other film that was supposed to open wide this week, The Loft; however, that film has been pushed back a week and no longer appears to be opening wide. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there was only one wide release, I, Frankenstein, which only managed $8.61 million during its opening weekend. All three new releases this year should open with at least that much, if not more. If the holdovers can hold up their end of the bargain, then 2015 should win the year-over-year comparison. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.

Jennifer Lopez plays a high school teacher who has a one-night affair with new neighbor, Ryan Guzman, who is also a student at the school she teaches at, I think. He then develops an obsession over her. This seems like a rather plain thriller that has very little chance at breakout success. The buzz ... barely exists and a lot of people are talking about how it is too similar to other movies. This is a really bad sign. Add in the January release date and I'm fairly sure the studio has no faith in the movie. It might not top $10 million during its opening weekend and I doubt it will have the legs to last in theaters for very long.

This is the biggest release of the week, which should help a bit. Unfortunately, it won't help enough. Johnny Depp is on a losing streak at the box office and the buzz isn't particularly strong for this film. Many moviegoers think this looks too much like the typical Johnny Depp / Tim Burton movie, even though it is not directed by Tim Burton. Instead it is directed by David Koepp, who has more than $2 billion in career domestic box office earnings... as a screenwriter. As a director, his career domestic box office earnings are barely over $100 million. This film should help boost that total, but it still won't be a midlevel hit.

A digitally animated family film about a group of faeries and a group of goblins that interact for the first time and this interaction causes a war. It is too early in the year for a family film to come out, as most families will still be recovering from Christmas / New Year. Add in the deathly quiet buzz and there's little hope this film will be a big hit. If the reviews are good, it might have enough legs to match it production budget domestically, but I am not optimistic.

Weekend of January 30th, 2015

January ends with two movies, three if you count The Loft, which I'm not. I really don't think it will open wide enough to reach the top ten. Project Almanac is the bigger of the two wide releases and it could be a surprise midlevel hit. On the other hand, it feels too much like Chronicle and I think that will hurt it at the box office. Black or White feels like an unintentional parody of Oscar-bait dramas. The combination of quiet buzz and bad early reviews will likely kill its chances at the box office. This time last year, both of the newreleases struggled and only one film earned more than $12 million. It's got to be better this year, right? I have no idea. This far out, the weekend looks like a coin toss on the year-over-year comparison.

Kevin Costner stars as a widow raising his granddaughter, Jillian Estell, after his wife died in a car crash and his daughter died during childbirth. Their family is disrupted when the other grandparent, Octavia Spencer, sues for custody on behalf of her son, Andre Holland. The film got an Oscar-qualifying run early in December, but its early reviews suggest that was pointless. Additionally, neither Kevin Costner nor Mike Binder have a good track-record at the box office. Finally, the buzz is just too quiet for me to be bullish.

A group of teens find plans for a time machine and build it. At first they use it, but soon they begin to abuse it. This film is reminding a lot of people of Chronicle, only the kids find plans for a time machine instead of get super powers from a magic cave. Also, I think this film is aimed at a younger demographic. Project Almanac's box office chances are likely much weaker, as it was originally scheduled for a release last February, but was pulled from the schedule rather abruptly and it is now being dumped in theaters in January. That's a terrible sign. On the plus side, its first review is positive.