Gaining an edge is important in any competitive endeavor. Think
about it: how often has a media outlet ever received credit for
being the second to report a news story? Similarly, it doesn’t
matter if you beat 10 other owners in your 12-team league to the
punch on a hot-shot player if the 11th owner got to him first. In
short, fantasy football is a bottom-line business and the only thing
that matters at the end of the day is whether or not our players
contribute enough to our teams to beat our opponents. But part of
reaching that point is getting a jump on the competition by figuring
out which players are standing out in the offseason (and just as
importantly, which ones are not) so we can narrow our focus ever
so slightly on the players that really matter to us.

Each year, every team is optimistic about a change it made and
at least one player that dominated offseason workouts. While much
of the hype never comes to fruition on the football field, the
fact that some of it will means fantasy owners need to pay attention.
Beat writers and, in some cases, national columnists often serve
as our only windows into what happens on the practice field in
May and June, making it important to monitor what they say –
even if most of it is coach-speak and exaggeration.

As a result, over the next two weeks, I’ll be doing what
I can to eliminate the fluff and give readers a decent (some may
even say respectable) opinion on how the offseason buzz from all
32 teams translates to fantasy owners. This week, we’ll
take a look at what is being reported in the AFC:

BaltimoreRay
Rice is eyeing a multiple-game
suspension for the now-infamous Atlantic City video that showed
him dragging his unconscious then-fiancé (and now-wife) out of
an elevator, Bernard
Pierce is recovering from major shoulder surgery (rotator
cuff) and fourth-round rookie RB Lorenzo
Taliaferro was charged for two misdemeanors following a post-draft
incident in his hometown where he broke a window of a taxicab.
But not all the news is bad regarding the Ravens’ likely top three
backs this season. Rice entered OTAs like a man on a mission,
dropping roughly 20 pounds from last season when he dealt with
hip and quadriceps injuries. Pierce was expected to be out at
least 4-5 months and miss all pre-training camp workouts, but
was doing individual
work during OTAs. And from the sounds of it, Baltimore hasn’t
lowered its expectations for Taliaferro, who fulfills the
big-back role the Ravens have sought for a few years.

If new OC Gary Kubiak proved two things during his time in Houston,
it was that he could consistently field a strong running game
and his tight ends were going to receive a lot of work. Dennis
Pitta doesn’t need a lot of help in that area, but it
appears as if he thinks he’s going to get it. Owen
Daniels apparently likes what Kubiak’s offense did for him
as well since he followed his old coach to Baltimore, where he’ll
theoretically back up Pitta but still see plenty of playing time
as the Ravens should use plenty of two-tight sets. As confident
as Pitta seems to be about enjoying the new offense, HC John Harbaugh
sounds every bit as confident that Daniels’ role will be “plenty
big”.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Kubiak
hinted in an interview
with the Ravens’ team website in February that he plans on
using two backs going forward. In the same piece, he also stated
that, “I think as (Rice) goes, we’ll go,” and made a loose comparison
between Pierce and Arian
Foster. Of course, the use of two backs shouldn’t come as
a shock since Kubiak employed a similar strategy with Foster and
Ben
Tate over the last few years. As long as the early reports
about Rice’s fitness are true, he’s probably not going to have
much of a problem playing the Foster role in the new run-heavy
offense. The difference between the two situations (Houston and
Baltimore) is Taliaferro, who was chosen in part due to his size
(6-0, 230) and ability to run with power – making him a short-yardage
and goal-line candidate. He was also reportedly quite impressive
picking up pass-protection concepts in rookie minicamp. A strong
start by Pierce out of the gate with Rice sidelined and early
success in a third-down role from Taliaferro could throw this
potentially productive backfield into a complete mess from a fantasy
perspective. A more likely scenario, though, involves a rejuvenated
Rice making his 2013 struggles a distant memory while keeping
Pierce and Taliaferro in a relief role. As for Pitta, no offense
targeted tight ends more over the past three years than Kubiak’s
did in Houston. It’s not realistic to think that Pitta will overtake
Jimmy
Graham, Julius
Thomas or a healthy Rob
Gronkowski for the top spot at their position in fantasy,
but if he can stay healthy in Kubiak’s offense, Pitta stands a
great chance at finishing right behind them. Daniels has a shot
to somewhat relevant in fantasy as well, but probably more as
a low-end TE2.

Buffalo
The degree to which the Bills improve over last season will depend
on the improvements they made in the passing game. The new variable
in the equation is WR Sammy
Watkins, who is immediately expected to put some bite into
the modernized version of the “K-gun”. Watkins, the No. 4 overall
pick in the draft, has already provided his share of excitement
to a team desperate for his ability to collect yards after the
catch, prompting OC Nathaniel Hackett to say, “He’s
a guy we’ve got to get the ball to a whole bunch.” Hackett
went on to say, “to this point as a pro, he’s been amazing, just
the way he’s attacked this whole thing.” While Watkins focuses
on a new offense and improving his skills as a route-runner, Buffalo
is anticipating the healthy return of Robert
Woods (ankle), who will assume Steve
Johnson’s old role (the second-year receiver will likely start
opposite Watkins and move into the slot in three-wide packages).
While Watkins’ arrival coincided with Johnson’s departure, the
wheels of the Johnson trade started late last season when more
than one assistant suggested Woods was already the
best receiver on the roster.

Of course, it isn’t going to mean much if Watkins and Woods are
getting open on every play if QB E.J. Manuel can’t stay healthy,
get the ball to them or both. Hackett appears to be pleased with
the progress of his second-year quarterback and suggested that
it was “beautiful” when he called a play last season that Manuel
really knew well, but somewhat aggravating to predict what was
going to happen when he didn’t. This year, Manuel says that Manuel
is correcting his own mistakes and can verbalize what/when he
saw when he makes an error. Further working in Manuel’s favor
was his
choice to work out in the offseason with San Francisco 49ers
QB Colin
Kaepernick – an experience the Bills’ signal-caller said helped
him “improving on situational football and being smarter”.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Hackett also famously said last year
that he would run RB C.J. Spiller “until he throws up”,
so fantasy owners can either take the Watkins’ comment with
a grain of salt and congratulate the second-year play-caller for
toning it down just a bit. At any rate, it is not hard to imagine
that an up-tempo spread offense with a healthy Manuel and Spiller
in the backfield and Watkins and Woods out wide could be very
productive. It is also worth noting that Buffalo’s 69.75
plays per game ranked behind only Denver (72.2) and New England
(71.1) last season and that was with a lot of shuffling at quarterback.
Manuel isn’t being given much of a chance to succeed in
2014 thanks in part to his 58.8 completion percentage as a rookie
as well as three knee surgeries, but the addition of a dynamic
talent like Watkins cannot be overstated, especially when Watkins
can do so much damage on quick-hitting plays like screens. Fantasy
owners probably don’t need to draft Manuel in most regular-sized
leagues, but the Bills’ offense may allow him to become
a sneaky QB2 this season. Watkins should be considered a low-end,
high-upside WR3 while Woods can probably be drafted as a strong
WR4 in fantasy.

Cincinnati
Coming off a spectacular rookie season, there was never going
to be any question as to whether RB Giovani
Bernard would get the ball in 2014. The bigger mystery early
in this offseason was how much new OC Hue Jackson would deviate
from what former play-caller Jay Gruden did and feature the second-year
back, especially after the team added powerful second-rounder
Jeremy
Hill. The early returns from offseason practices involve Bernard
moving around all over the field, including in the slot. (He only
lined up in the slot 14 times and 28 times on the edge as a wide
receiver last season, according to Pro Football Focus.) While
it sounds like typical offseason hyperbole, it appears as if the
Bengals really want to focus on being physical and play
with much more tempo, which should give Bernard an outside
shot at 300
total touches after finishing with 226 last year.

The upshot at playing with more tempo is the possibility of running
more plays, but the downside of doing so when the team plans on
“smashing your face in” (as
Bernard told ESPN in late May) is that the passing game figures
to take a back seat. Jackson is saying
all the right things about QB Andy
Dalton, but the majority of mistakes the Bengals’ new play-caller
is harping on his team about correcting came as a result of poor
decisions from Dalton last season. For his part, Dalton has generated
positive remarks about increased
arm strength from his receivers.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Given that Jackson craved – and had
success with – a power running game when he coached the Oakland
Raiders, there was some initial concern that Bernard would not
see his role grow much for fear of overexposing the 5-10, 205-pound
back. Thankfully, the opposite appears to be true; HC Marvin Lewis
stated in late March that he envisioned Bernard to take the same
kind of second-year
leap that Ray Rice did years ago for the Baltimore Ravens.
That doesn’t happen without significant commitment to Bernard
or the running game in general. It’s likely Hill was drafted more
to get more effectiveness out of the power-back role that was
occupied by BenJarvus
Green-Ellis last season, so it is safe to figure that whatever
contribution Hill makes, it will come at the expense of the “Law
Firm”. Bernard should probably be treated as a RB1 in all leagues,
while Hill has a decent shot at maintaining RB3/flex value. As
for the passing game, it seems unlikely the change in offensive
philosophy will have much effect on WR A.J.
Green’s final numbers, but an offensive coordinator’s desire
to rely on the ground game more tends to come as a result of trying
to make things easier for his quarterback. If Jackson continues
to believe less is more when it comes to reducing turnovers in
the passing game, then it figures to have a fairly significant
impact on Dalton, TE Tyler Eifert and possibly even WR Marvin
Jones. Dalton was already a top-end QB2 thanks in large part
to volume under Gruden, so feel free to move him down to the mid-QB2
range in fantasy drafts this season.

Cleveland
With the off-the-field woes of WR Josh
Gordon and the Browns’ unimpressive collection of receivers
after him, there are really only two things to talk about with
Cleveland: rookie QB Johnny Manziel and the running game. The
2012 Heisman Trophy winner reportedly looked “rugged” in during
rookie camp, but that didn’t stop new OC Kyle Shanahan from saying
pretty much what some fans expected when Cleveland traded
up to get him, telling USA Today, “Johnny and Robert (Griffin
III) are very similar. They're both talented guys who can make
plays with their legs. … I’ve been very impressed (with his work
ethic and willingness to attack each day).” For his part, new
HC Mike Pettine promises a “fair” competition between Manziel
and Brian
Hoyer, who has been limited all offseason due to ACL surgery
but will head into training camp as the starter.

One of the reasons why it is pertinent to discuss Manziel is
because of the impact he can have on the rushing attack. It has
been well-established that a mobile quarterback can have a pretty
profound impact on the ground game and it especially tends to
be true in zone-based blocking schemes since the outside zone
run stretches the defense both east and west when the quarterback
is a running threat. The player first in line to benefit the most
is Ben Tate, although small-school rookies Terrance
West and Isaiah Crowell should be highly involved as well.
Tate will begin the season as the starter, but the team already
loves West and Crowell was the 2011 SEC Freshman of the Year
who has drawn some comparisons to Fred Taylor. What does it all
mean? Some people seem to think that one year after ranking 30th
in rushing attempts, the
Browns will finish in the top three in 2014.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Of course, Shanahan was the one of
the two men responsible – along with father Mike – for creating
a run-heavy offense for RG3 in Washington that allowed him to
thrive as a rookie. Manziel is not the same kind of prospect that
Griffin was, but that doesn’t make what Shanahan said about his
new quarterback any less true – he is a lot like RG3 in the sense
that the fun starts when he gets outside of the pocket. Hoyer
should have the advantage at this point of the offseason, but
it will be hard for the Browns to stick with him since the masses
will almost certainly be calling for Manziel if the Browns are
unable to start off 2-1 or 3-0 before their Week 4 bye. If he
cracks the starting lineup at some point after the bye, Manziel’s
ability as a runner puts him into the fantasy QB2 discussion and
could even make him a darkhorse low-end QB1 possibility, but that
would be only if Gordon can make it back at some point – something
that appears unlikely as we sit here in mid-June. If
Tate can stay healthy for 16 games for the first time in his career,
he has the potential to be a top 10 fantasy back. Additionally,
there may be enough volume in the run game that West or Crowell
join him in the top 25-30 fantasy backs behind what is a talented
offensive line.

Denver
With RB Montee
Ball now considered the likely starter in the backfield for
the Broncos, about the only pressing question Denver has about
its offense is the identity of the player that will back him up.
The favorite should be Ronnie
Hillman based on the hype he has generated over the last year
or so, but it should come as no surprise if the job eventually
belongs to 2013 undrafted free agent C.J. Anderson, who is being
called a “serious
threat” for the role. It is important to remember that Hillman
was drafted was drafted in 2012 in hopes that he can become a
Darren
Sproles-like threat for QB Peyton
Manning, but has failed to even secure that role through two
seasons and blew a prime opportunity last year when he literally
fumbled away a chance to emerge as the team’s lead back.

The Broncos didn’t have much reason to touch their offense in
free agency, but the one impact signing they did make was Emmanuel
Sanders. (Just think, Eric
Decker’s replacement could very well have been Brandon
LaFellhad
contract negotiations not hit a snag.) Denver GM and executive
VP John Elway wanted Sanders all along, but balked at the ex-Steelers’
request for Decker-like money (assumed to be $8-9 M; he agreed
with the Jets for $7.5 M). Once the LaFell negotiations slowed
down, Elway checked back in with Sanders and was pleased to learn
his price had dropped considerably. "He can play anywhere," Elway
told the Denver Post. "He can play inside, he can be outside.
He's explosive. Great separation skills. He can do it all."

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Ball is one of the more obvious breakout
candidates in 2014, if only because most running backs in a Manning-led
offense are almost always very productive and the 2013 second-rounder
has no legitimate competition for his job. The Wisconsin grad
has more ability than Knowshon
Moreno, so he should be expected to produce at a higher clip
against the six-man boxes he will see than his predecessor. In
short, Ball has legitimate top-five fantasy RB upside. Sanders’
stock may have taken a bit of hit when the Broncos drafted Indiana
WR Cody
Latimer in the second round, but the team is being cautious
with the rookie after he underwent foot surgery in January that
kept him from competing at the NFL Combine. Latimer hinted
he doesn’t anticipate much playing time as a rookie, so the
fact he isn’t expected to see the field until training camp should
pretty well lock Sanders in to a starting role all season long
before he (presumably) moves inside to replace Wes
Welker in 2015. Although he shouldn’t be expected to replicate
Decker’s incredible numbers over the past two seasons, Sanders
should be able to secure low-end WR2/high-end WR3 value in redraft
leagues this year.

Houston
Although the Texans may have pulled a draft steal in the fourth
round when they selected University of Pittsburgh QB Tom
Savage, the prevailing
wisdom suggests that Ryan
Fitzpatrick will be running HC Bill O’Brien’s offense come
Week 1. However, the more notable statement the first-year coach
made in the same article is that one of the reasons the Texans
pursued the Harvard grad in free agency is because “he played
in a similar system, relative to Chan Gailey’s system in Buffalo”.
For those folks who indulge themselves in college football – Big
10 football in particular over the last two years – the notion
that O’Brien wants to read a Gailey-like spread offense may come
as a shock since Penn State was more of a ground-and-pound team
under his watch. It should be noted that O’Brien’s one season
as an NFL offensive coordinator spurred BenJarvus Green-Ellis
to 11 rushing touchdowns on just 181 carries, saw Wes Welker secure
122 catches and Aaron Hernandez 79 while also allowing Rob Gronkowski
to haul in 17 touchdown passes.

One area in which O’Brien and predecessor Gary Kubiak share a
similarity is their love for the tight end position. The position
wasn’t exactly a weakness – even with Owen Daniels leaving town
– with Garrett
Graham and Ryan
Griffin producing in somewhat limited action, but the Texans
saw fit to use a third-round pick on C.J.
Fiedorowicz, who drew a poor man’s Gronkowski comparison from
noted NFL Films guru Greg Cosell. The rookie from Iowa is spending
the majority of his time at the “Y” tight end spot – the same
position Gronkowski occupied under O’Brien and still plays to
this day. The addition of Fiedorowicz to a somewhat crowded position
group not only signals that blocking will be important at the
tight end position in O’Brien’s offense, but also that the new
coach probably is employ a heavy dose of two-tight formations.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Here’s a notable stat: in O’Brien’s
one year as offensive coordinator in New England, tight ends and
backs caught 60% of Tom Brady’s passes. One way Houston
has decided to try to mask Fitzpatrick’s arm-strength shortcomings
is to bring in one of the best guards in the draft (Xavier Su'a-Filo)
to solidify what should be a very good line as well as add one
of the draft’s best two-way tight ends in Fiedorowicz, play
smash-mouth football and throw the ball often to running backs
and tight ends. Savage is the only other real possibility for
the starting quarterback job and his chances of winning any competition
with Fitzpatrick are probably better than they may initially appear.
Fitzpatrick has a solid supporting cast in Houston, so he needs
to be included in the fantasy QB2 discussion. Fiedorowicz probably
isn’t ever going to come close to emulating Gronkowski,
but it seems more than reasonable that he could lead the team
in touchdown catches more than once in his career under O’Brien.
Even though Fiedorowicz is more of a dynasty-league option at
the moment than redraft, he still needs to be on the radar of
almost every owner in yearly leagues.

Indianapolis
Perhaps the general consensus was that WR T.Y.
Hilton may not see his snaps dialed back a little since Reggie
Wayne is a
bit of a freak in terms of his recovery from an ACL tear and
Hakeem Nicks was added in free agency. Not so fast. Hilton has
spent
time at all four receiver spots this offseason in part because
the Colts believe his ability to stay on the move is key to helping
him counteract the defense’s desire to take away the Colts’ most
explosive offensive weapon. Of course, playing all four receiver
spots is a
bit of old news since his versatility in that regard contributed
somewhat to the way he finished 2013 with a bang. However, with
the good must come the bad. Even as Hilton was closing last season
on a roll, he was collecting injuries at a fairly rapid rate (shoulder,
knee) and dealt with a foot injury during OTAs, although none
of those aches and pains is expected to be an issue at the start
of this season. Although none of those injuries came because of
his size (5-9, 178), the team still must do its best to make sure
not to overexpose him.

Second-year OC Pep Hamilton was stubborn to a fault last season,
consistently opting to stick to his run-first roots despite lacking
the personnel (porous offensive line) and relying on RB Trent
Richardson, who never really appeared to get comfortable in his
surroundings following his trade from Cleveland. This year, Hamilton
is adopting a “score-first”
approach, which is to say that while he won’t go away from the
run, he also recognizes what he has in QB Andrew
Luck. Regarding Richardson, he is getting the bulk of first-team
reps with Ahmad
Bradshaw (neck) and Vick Ballard (knee) sitting out. The No.
3 overall pick of the 2012 draft saw his weight increase to 240
pounds in the offseason as a result of “eating good” following
postseason
shoulder surgery, but is back in the 225-pound range now.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: The degree to which Hilton will be
able to repeat last season will be in somewhat direct correlation
to how effective Nicks is in his new digs. If Nicks can recapture
the form that made him one of the most feared young receivers
just a few seasons ago, then Hilton will probably go back to the
part-time role he had as a rookie, although Indianapolis would
be foolish to limit him to the 682 snaps he saw in 2012. The better
bet is that even with Wayne returning from injury and Nicks in
town, Hilton remains the player the Colts will feed the ball to
in the most critical situations. Hilton is coming off the board
as the 24th receiver according to Fantasy Football Calculator
– a price just about any owner should be willing to pay
for a solid WR2 with WR1 upside. Another factor that might limit
Hilton’s snaps is if Richardson delivers on the promise
the Colts saw when they traded a 2014 first-round pick for him
early last season. A more effective Richardson would likely lead
to more two-back sets, which in turn would lead to more two-receiver
sets and force the undersized Hilton off the field. Indianapolis
didn’t make significant upgrades up front, but the signing
of G Donald Thomas and drafting of G/C Jack Mewhort may be all
Richardson really needs since much of the Colts’ problem
running the ball last year came as a result of not being able
to block inside. Richardson 5.12 ADP makes him a solid value pick
in 2014; he was a low-end fantasy RB1 on a poor Browns’
team just two seasons ago.

Jacksonville
Many folks didn’t expect RB Toby
Gerhart to be an impact free-agent signing back in March.
However, it’s not hard to see why while the Jaguars essentially
chose him over every other back in the free-agent class: his
ability to gain yards after contact and thrive on third down.
“He’s a horse. He’s a big guy, and I talked to one of his former
(position) coaches, and he was saying Toby had the strongest legs
he’s been around in terms of his leg drive and leg power,” Jacksonville
RB coach Terry Richardson told the Florida Times-Union in late
May. And while there are significant differences between Gerhart,
Michael
Turner and Marshawn
Lynch, it is interesting to note that all three are clearly
running backs that have an abundance of leg power and the ability
to gain yards after contact.

There doesn’t seem to be a lot of clarity at wideout in Jacksonville
and injuries certainly aren’t helping the Jaguars sort through
those mysteries in the offseason. It got so bad at one point during
OTAs that the team was down to Chad Bumphis, Kerry Taylor, Allen
Hurns and Damian Copeland because seven receivers spent time on
the sideline with various aches and pains: rookies Marqise
Lee (right ankle) and Allen
Robinson (right hamstring), Cecil
Shorts III (calf), Ace
Sanders (thigh), Tandon
Doss (calf), Mike
Brown (groin) and Lamaar Thomas (knee). Be that as it may,
the Jaguars are moving on from Justin
Blackmon (indefinite suspension) and will ask Shorts to play
more snaps out of the slot, where
he has proven to be effective over the last two seasons. It
appears Jacksonville is grooming Robinson to take over Shorts’
old spot at “X” (split end) – Shorts is eligible to become a free
agent after the season – while Lee operates as the “Z” (flanker),
meaning Lee has a pretty clear path to a starting job.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: There may not have been a single veteran
player that saw his fantasy stock increase as much as Gerhart’s
did this offseason. The former Heisman Trophy finalist certainly
paid his dues by sitting behind Adrian Peterson for the better
part of four years – only seeing significant action in the
passing game or when “All Day” was injured. There
are few things better in fantasy football than when opportunity
strikes for a talented player and that is exactly what Gerhart
has in front of him with very little competition for touches,
making him one of the few backs in the league that has a very
good shot at exceeding 300 touches in 2014. There is no question
the 27-year-old has a chance to finish among the top 15, if not
the top 10, fantasy backs this season as a result. The Jaguars
would like to get an extension done with Shorts soon, but were
smart to prepare for a future without him by spending a pair of
second-rounders on Lee and Robinson. Since Lee has virtually no
competition for his spot, he’s probably going to be the
better pick of the two rookies in redraft leagues, although neither
one figures to be much more than a WR4. Shorts, who gained 42.9
percent of his receiving yards in the fourth quarter last season,
makes for a strong WR3 given his strong connection with QB Chad
Henne and lead-receiver status in this offense.

Kansas
City
With the Chiefs making no dramatic improvements at quarterback,
running back or wide receiver (surprisingly) in the offseason,
the focus moves to the tight end position. TE Travis
Kelce is expected to be a
big part of the passing game and stretch
the field, although it appears he hasn’t done anything more
than participate in the offseason program thus far. HC Andy Reid
expects to get “a little bit more out of Kelce” before Kansas
City takes a short break prior to training camp however; the 2013
third-round pick is making his way back from microfracture knee
surgery, which sidelined him for his entire rookie season. While
Kelce continues down the road of recovery, former college basketball
player Demetrius Harris caught
the eye of the coaching staff during rookie camp. Not only
did the 6-7 Harris add 32 pounds of good weight to his 225-pound
frame over the last year, but he also possesses 4.52 speed as
well. It should be noted that, in 2013, Reid was pleased with
the strides
Harris made in his conversion from the hardwood to the gridiron.

Perhaps no player – at least at receiver – fell short of expectations
quite as much as Dwayne
Bowe did last year. Although he came on a bit later in the
season as QB Alex
Smith began to open up things a bit and Kansas City featured
him more often in the slot, Bowe was outperformed by RB Jamaal
Charles in just about every meaningful receiving category.
The seven-year veteran, who will turn 30 during the season, worked
with both a
nutritionist and personal trainer in the offseason for the
first time in his career. Wide receiver, specifically the slot,
is where fans of the Chiefs should expect to find fourth-round
pick De’Anthony Thomas. The former Oregon running back was chosen
most likely with an eye to
replace the special teams and short passing game impact left
behind by the free-agent departure of Dexter
McCluster, who bolted for the Tennessee Titans in free agency.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Although it can be questioned whether
or not Smith will take enough shots downfield to fully utilize
his skill set, Kelce has more than enough ability to evolve into
a fantasy TE1 someday. More information is needed before the hype
train can get started for the second-year tight end out of Cincinnati,
however, since he is coming off a serious knee procedure. Reid
compared Kelce to Jeremy Shockey shortly after the Chiefs drafted
him last April, so it should be obvious the coaches want to get
him involved. Given the lack of other quality receiving weapons
in Kansas City outside of Charles and maybe Bowe, Kelce should
be in the fantasy TE2 conversation. Harris is a sleeper in deep
dynasty leagues only, while Thomas will probably contribute more
as a returner as a rookie than he will to fantasy box scores.
As noted earlier, Bowe came on during the stretch when he was
used out of the slot. His offseason regimen is admirable, but
it seems unlikely that he’ll be anything more than a middling
WR3 going forward in this offense as it is currently constructed.

Miami
WR Mike
Wallace starred in his very own version of “Groundhog Day”
last season. Week after week, former OC Mike Sherman lined him
up on the right side and basically asked him to be a glorified
deep threat (except for when the receiver complained about his
lack of catches after Week 1 and promptly responded with a 9-115-1
line). Wallace became more of a target down the stretch, but the
fact that Sherman was so predictable with his usage drove many
– including the receiver – crazy. Enter new OC Bill Lazor, who
has made it a point to
move the ex-Steeler all over the formation – including
the backfield this offseason. Lazor seems to have absorbed
a lot of concepts he learned in his one year as the QB coach with
the Philadelphia Eagles under HC Chip Kelly since he is installing
an up-tempo offense with a heavy emphasis on spread formations.
While Lazor has been given much credit for the emergence of Nick
Foles, the reason he is important to Wallace is because Kelly
understood that DeSean
Jackson was a movable chess piece in his offense and exploited
it. Jackson saw roughly 30 percent of his snaps in the slot last
year and it isn’t a stretch to say Wallace is every bit capable
as Jackson.

While Wallace appears to be all smiles in Miami now, another
version of déjà vu all over again is occurring at the running
back position where, lo and behold, Lamar
Miller is having a fine camp. Free-agent signee Knowshon Moreno
is apparently using
the offseason to work off his offseason – so to speak – giving
the third-year back an
opportunity to shine once again. Of course, many will remember
Miller was “dominating” the backfield competition last season
as well, but ended up in a committee with Daniel
Thomas since he wasn’t as physical as the coaching staff wanted
him to be.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Should we expect Wallace to see more
than a handful of snaps out of the backfield? Probably not. Then
again, that’s not really the point. Consistently creating
opportunities for and taking advantage of potential mismatches
is often what separates great coaches/coordinators from average
ones and it is fair to say the Dolphins have two matchup nightmares
(Wallace and TE Charles Clay) and potentially three (Miller) players
capable of scaring defenses on a regular basis. Wallace finished
with 73 catches for 930 yards and five scores last season; it
would be stunning if didn’t come close to or exceed 80 catches
for 1,200-plus yards and eight touchdowns in this offense. As
a result, Wallace should be a fine fantasy WR2 in 2014. Most people
understood that Moreno’s signing with Miami wasn’t
going to be significant – in the sense that he would have
a chance to match last year’s numbers with Denver - other
than to keep the more explosive Miller grounded. Expect Moreno
to show better when the pads come on in July and he is able to
display his best qualities (picking up the blitz and catching
the ball out of the backfield), but the fact the ex-Bronco has
even cracked the door open for Miller might speak to why he hasn’t
lived up to being the No. 12 overall pick in the 2009 draft. If
Miller can hold off Moreno in camp and be the clear-cut lead back
in this new offense, he has definite fantasy RB2 appeal. Moreno,
on the other hand, needs to be treated as a low-upside RB3.

New
England
By all accounts, 2013 was pretty much a lost season for WR Danny
Amendola. Not only could he not avoid injury long enough to become
the next Wes Welker, but he essentially lost that role to Julian
Edelman when the former Kent State quarterback was finally able
to stay healthy for a full season. ESPN
Boston reported in early June that Amendola “once again looks
like the player who caught the eye in these (OTA) practices last
year”. Amendola’s injury woes are well-documented and served as
probably the only obstacle between him and the 100-catch season
that Edelman produced. Since New England has the ability to get
out of his contract at a reasonable cost in 2015 and just handed
Edelman a four-year contract in the offseason, speculation
is building that Amendola needs a pretty big year to return
to New England after this season.

If it is the offseason, it must be time to talk about TE Rob
Gronkowski coming back from an injury, surgery or both. (He rehabbed
an ankle in 2012, his forearm and back in 2013, and now his right
knee after tearing an ACL and MCL in December. Early reports are
“The Gronk” is progressing
well from surgery but, while optimism is building that he
will be back in time for Week 1, no official timetable has been
set as of yet. With that said, the Boston
Globe reported that Gronkowski was “bursting, planting, and
cutting during the early portions of Thursday’s practice (June
5) open to the media, and doesn’t look like he (has) any limitations”.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: It should come as no surprise if the
roles get reversed this year (as in Edelman gets hurt again and
Amendola stays healthy for all 16 games for the first time in
his career) that Amendola becomes the 100-catch receiver the Patriots
hoped they were getting a season ago. Ideally, both receivers
will stay healthy and switch up roles from down to down and game
to game. Edelman is currently the 23rd receiver coming off the
board (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) in the fifth
round, which is way too high for a player with his injury history.
Conversely, Amendola is the 44th receiver being drafted in the
early 10th round, which is much too low for a player with 100-catch
potential (or 70-80 in a shared slot role with Edelman). Until
one of the two get injured, Edelman and Amendola need to be drafted
as high-upside fantasy WR3s that can play as WR2s if one of them
can manage to get the majority of slot duties (like Edelman did
last season). The tight end position in fantasy appears to have
a few more potential worthy TE1s this season, with the likes of
Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas, Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta likely
joining the fray that consisted mainly of Jimmy Graham and Gronkowski
(and maybe Vernon Davis) last season. As such, Gronk probably
needs to be selected after that group. Despite his immense upside,
he is incurring injuries at a significant rate, so the fact he
is coming off the board as the third tight end in the early fourth
round (according to Fantasy Football Calculator) makes him a bit
pricey to recommend.

New
York Jets
Jets HC Rex Ryan says there is “no
doubt” competition for the starting quarterback job, OC Marty
Mornhinweg says it is not
a true 50-50 competition and Michael
Vick has apparently
all but conceded that Geno
Smith will be the starting quarterback for New York. So what
exactly is going on? Ryan has to maintain the illusion of competition
to ensure he gets the best out of both Smith and Vick in camp
– that is his job as the head coach. Mornhinweg is vested in Smith,
so he certainly has a personal interest in giving the second-year
quarterback every opportunity to win the job. As for Vick, it
does him no good to rock the boat in New York – a place sometimes
known for making a story out of something that might not actually
be a story. What every party knows (Ryan, Mornhinweg, Vick and
Smith), however, is that if Smith wins the job out of camp but
doesn’t continue his late-season improvement, then New York will
have a veteran quarterback capable of picking up the slack. The
underlying message from Ryan and Mornhinweg to Smith is this:
make our decision easy so there is no controversy.

It seems pretty clear that WR Eric Decker will be the centerpiece
of the Jets’ passing game and rookie TE Jace
Amaro will be the clear second option in short order. Assuming
those two pieces of information are true, then who will fill the
starting receiver spot opposite Decker? The logical pick should
be Jeremy Kerley, based on nothing more than the way he has been
able to produce despite rather shaky quarterbacking for most of
his pro career. However, Kerley’s ideal spot would be as a slot
receiver, so the Jets are probably hoping another candidate steps
up. David
Nelson didn’t fare all that badly in limited action last season,
but one candidate for the second receiver job could be Jacoby
Ford. Not only does Ford complement Decker’s short and intermediate
game well, but the ex-Raider’s blazing speed gives New York a
deep threat it has not had in a while.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Thanks to the acquisition of RBs Chris
Johnson (this offseason) and Chris
Ivory (last year), the Jets have the a pair of runners capable
of making life a bit easier on Smith. Adding Decker in free agency
and Amaro in the draft are obviously another steps in the right
direction, so Ryan and Mornhinweg could be tempted to pass the
ball more (which Mornhinweg likes to do) if one of the two quarterbacks
really steps up. However, with the gaping hole the Jets still
have opposite Decker at receiver, they still don’t have the weapons
necessary to consider any of their quarterbacks as rock-solid
fantasy QB2 options. The Jets attacked their receiver issue with
quantity as opposed to quality in the draft. Shaq Evans and Quincy
Enunwa both have the ability to stick in the league, although
both players would be stretched as anything more than real-life
WR3s anytime soon, while Jalen
Saunders’ long-term outlook appears to be as a returner. Stephen
Hill will probably
be given another shot as well, but the Jets probably
have no interest in counting on him again anytime soon and
may just turn back to Nelson. If Ford could ever stay healthy
long enough, he could eventually warrant a spot as the last receiver
reserve on a fantasy bench in a deep league. Outside of that,
Decker is the only Jets’ wideout that should be on an owner’s
roster this fall.

Oakland
The Raiders attacked free agency the way one would expect a team
to approach it when they finally escaped the salary-cap distress
they had put themselves in over the last several seasons. One
of the team’s March investments was ex-Green Bay Packer WR James
Jones, who will get every chance to be the leader of a deep
receiving corps that hasn’t established itself yet. Behind Jones,
there is Denarius
Moore, Rod
Streater and Andre Holmes, all of whom have the ability to
be a good second receiver – or more – with Oakland. Beyond that
foursome of players are two more talented players that deserve
to be on a roster at the very least in Brice
Butler and Juron
Criner, who was reportedly “far
and away” the best receiver on the field in OTAs. Those with
long memories will remember that Criner was Nick Foles’ favorite
target at Arizona back in college and starred in early offseason
work as a rookie in 2012 before succumbing to injuries and ineffectiveness
when the lights got a bit brighter.

While it would be pertinent to discuss Oakland’s interesting
backfield battle between Darren
McFadden and Maurice
Jones-Drew, the most important developments there have been
the former fielding
kickoffs in OTAs while the latter is apparently in
the discussion for punt returns. So we turn our attention
to the quarterback situation, where second-rounder Derek
Carr has apparently already flashed enough talent and intelligence
to convince
the brass that he will be ready to play sooner than later.
Unsurprisingly, the Raiders were convinced earlier in the offseason
that soon-to-be 33-year-old Matt
Schaub is a “long-term solution” and “a potential top 10 quarterback”
after trading for him.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: It may seem laughable to the general
fan, but Oakland has a wealth of talent at receiver. All six receivers
mentioned above deserve to be on a NFL roster, although Moore’s
inconsistency drives the team crazy and could lead to a trade
down the road. Streater began to emerge as a quality option about
the same time Matt
McGloin took over as the starting quarterback and is considered
the frontrunner to start opposite Jones. Holmes used the Raiders’
Thanksgiving Day loss to the Dallas Cowboys (his former team)
to announce his coming-out party. However, it is anyone’s guess
which receiver will become Schaub (and ultimately Carr’s) favorite
receiver and that is where Criner comes in. Strong early impressions
tend to stick with a quarterback, so if Criner is really recapturing
the form that made him the talk of camp two years ago, he needs
to be taken seriously. There’s no redraft value at the moment
with Raiders receivers after Jones, but Holmes and Criner probably
have the most upside of any receiver on this roster not named
Moore. Despite the utter optimism at quarterback, Oakland will
have either the least accomplished or the least effective player
under center in the AFC West in 2014. As a result, fantasy owners
can probably avoid whichever Raiders quarterback wins the job
and keep their focus on McFadden, Jones-Drew and Jones as the
only Oakland players worth drafting.

Pittsburgh
Despite what may be the popular opinion, second-year WR Markus
Wheaton and rookie Martavis
Bryant figured to be locked into a training-camp duel to determine
which youngster will start opposite “Z” receiver Antonio
Brown and replace Emmanuel
Sanders. Brown is obviously locked into his spot and free-agent
signee Lance
Moore appears to be the unquestioned slot receiver, so much
will come down to whether the Steelers like the game-breaking
speed and quickness of Wheaton or the raw speed-size mismatch
that is Bryant. Let’s first consider Wheaton, who is a slightly
more well-rounded but younger version of Mike Wallace – the receiver
who Wheaton was supposed to replace last year before having his
rookie season washed out due to injury. Conversely, Bryant gives
the Steelers the
big receiver (6-4, 211) that QB Ben
Roethlisberger has sought since Plaxico
Burress departed. Last year, that role belonged to 6-1, 200-pound
Jerricho
Cotchery, who turned 46 catches into 10 touchdowns.

The Steelers don’t have any other fantasy-relevant position battles
of note, but they are planning on making another change on offense
in 2014: running
more no-huddle. Thanks to the research of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review,
the Steelers ran at least 15 no-huddle plays in each of the final
nine games of the season, going 6-3 over that span and averaging
more than 10 points more per game compared to the first seven
games. Furthermore, Pittsburgh ran 239 no-huddle plays last year
(23 percent of their plays); Roethlisberger went 102-of-163 for
1,221 yards and threw 10 of his 28 touchdowns in those situations.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Tempo is getting to be a key buzzword
in the NFL and Pittsburgh is no different. While both Wheaton
and Bryant are capable of stretching defenses with their 4.4 speed,
the former is much more refined as a route-runner than the latter
and plays every bit to his timed speed. That makes a difference
to a team that wants to embrace tempo and create big plays, which
is why Wheaton should maintain his edge over Bryant for the starting
job despite
his modesty in late May. It should come as no surprise if
he is able to produce at or above the level of Sanders last season
(67-740-6) and be a solid WR3 in fantasy. Bryant will take some
time to develop, but he found a pretty good fit in Pittsburgh
and could easily slide into Cotchery red-zone role, although it
will be almost impossible for him or Moore to expect the same
level of success. While it is notable Roethlisberger had most
of his fantasy success against the weaker defenses his team faced
in the second half of last season, he was one of the league’s
best fantasy quarterbacks over that time. Although some of the
credit must go to RB Le’Veon Bell for his ability to bring balance
to the offense, Big Ben did enjoy one of his finest fantasy seasons
nonetheless. With the quarterback position as deep as it is in
fantasy, Roethlisberger should be easy enough to acquire as a
high-end QB2 and fill that role nicely.

San
Diego
Speed was the reason given by many for the plummeting draft stock
of Keenan
Allen in 2013, so it might as well be the trait he works on
this offseason in order to continue the unlikely story that transpired
last year. Last summer, Vincent
Brown was on pace to become QB Philip
Rivers’ best friend and Malcom
Floyd was the veteran deep threat that only injuries could
knock out of the lineup. This year, Allen
is faster and needs only a repeat of last season in order
to become a household name while his teammates are the ones that
have obstacles in their way. Floyd is the team’s best deep threat
at the moment and is on his way back from the neck injury (and
subsequent surgery) that threatened his playing career, but has
looked good in OTAs. Brown stayed healthy for the first time in
his career, but finds himself fourth on the depth chart (behind
Eddie
Royal) now after failing miserably in his one shot at becoming
the go-to guy.

In San Diego, the elephant in the closet is third-year TE Ladarius
Green. The Union-Tribune’s Michael Gehlken was one
of the latest to pronounceAntonio
Gates’ eventual successor as the team’s breakout player this
season. The 6-6, 240-pound Green with 4.5 speed is obviously a
bit of a freaky athlete, but the Chargers surprising had him block
on 59.5 percent of his 450 snaps last season (per Pro Football
Focus). Perhaps it was a message that he needed to toughen up
in preparation for a bigger role in 2014 or just a tool San Diego
used to throw off the defense last season, but Green spent the
offseason adding 10 pounds, picked up mixed martial arts to focus
on his hand usage and leverage and drew praise from his trainer
for making
improvements in and out of breaks.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Even if he was slow to recover from
a PCL injury in his last season at Cal, it is hard to believe
now that Allen was still available in the third round in the 2013
NFL Draft. ESPN’s Matt Williamson suggested in early April that
Allen may be at
his ceiling already because he lacks the talent of A.J. Green
or Julio
Jones, but I’m not sure that doesn’t actually bode well for
his future since he is already using his route-running and hands
to win on a weekly basis. The second-year wideout is probably
actually a candidate to slide back a bit after posting a 76-1175-10
line last season as the Chargers emphasize the run more and defenses
cater their coverages to Allen, but any increase in speed is probably
going to negate that somewhat. He should be a fine low-end WR1
or great WR2 in just about every league. Floyd will probably go
undrafted – barring a stellar preseason – and had a reputation
for getting hurt a lot even before last year’s setback, but could
be a solid end-of-roster fantasy option. The fantasy world began
to learn about Green late last season and the hype surrounding
him is no joke; he is going to be really good…it is just a matter
of when. Green is currently the 15th tight end coming off the
board in PPR leagues (according to Fantasy Football Calculator),
although it is not unreasonable to think he can finish in the
top eight at his position. While much will be determined in training
camp, any owner that can snag him at 12.11 (his current ADP) as
the first TE2 off the board should be thrilled with their investment.

Tennessee
The offseason is the time of year that coaches have seemingly
have nothing but praise for their players, although Justin
Hunter wasn’t feeling much love last year from WR coach Shawn
Jefferson. This year, he
is. “He can be the receiver that puts us in the playoffs and
helps us win our division. With the growth he is going to go through,
if he can keep progressing he can be the receiver that puts us
over the edge. … He is coming on. … I like the course he is on,"
Jefferson told The Tennessean in early June. Hunter
added 15 (much-needed) pounds in the offseason and is up to
208 pounds after spending much of last season around 193. Jefferson
famously questioned Hunter’s toughness when the 2013 second-rounder
sat out of OTAs last year with a hamstring issue and the coaching
staff continued to tee off on him for inconsistent hands, mental
mistakes and lack of intensity. Hunter finally began to overtake
the completely ineffective Kenny
Britt around midseason and flashed the freakish potential
he displayed at the 2013 NFL Combine by posting two 100-yard games
in three contests before missing the final three games for violating
team rules. The humbling experience – as well as a change in coaches
and philosophy – seems to have agreed with Hunter, who is embracing
the Titans’
approach to go downfield a bit more this season.

There’s little doubt rookie RB Bishop
Sankey will grab the starting role in the backfield sooner
than later, with only three power backs (Shonn
Greene , Jackie
Battle and undrafted free agent Antonio Andrews) around to
give him much competition for the lead- or feature-back role.
While Sankey should be expected to thrive due to a run-heavy approach
behind a talented offensive line, Dexter McCluster probably stands
a pretty good shot at being the second-most productive member
of Tennessee’s backfield. The ex-Chief was signed to a three-year
deal worth $9 million, which serves as a pretty good indication
the Titans will use him. (The deal is nearly twice as rich as
the one Danny
Woodhead signed when new HC Ken Whisenhunt was the offensive
coordinator in San Diego last season.) The comparison to Woodhead
is an appropriate one as well since that is the role Tennessee
likely
expects McCluster to play.

Mid-June Fantasy Reaction: Whether or not QB Jake Locker can
stay healthy will play a large role in whether Hunter and/or McCluster
thrive, although both should be expected to enjoy much more productive
seasons than they had in 2013. Hunter is much like San Diego’s
Ladarius Green from the perspective that both players are such
incredible talents; it is only a matter of time before they succeed.
(Work ethic is a bit more of a question with Hunter, however.)
Still, the University of Tennessee alum is a solid fantasy WR4
option in redraft leagues and has as good of a chance as any young
receiver in the league to be this year’s Josh Gordon since
both Locker and rookie Zach Mettenberger each have the arm strength
to chuck the ball down the field in an offense that will take
more deep shots. As for McCluster, it is entirely possible he
produces at a higher rate than Woodhead did in 2013 simply because
Locker isn’t the quarterback that Philip Rivers is and may
need to settle for the short throw more often. He stands a great
chance to outperform his mid-14th round ADP and could be a worthy
flex option this season, especially in PPR leagues.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and has been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football
Preview magazine since 2010. He has hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday over the
past two seasons and appears as a guest analyst before and during
the season on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” as well
as 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). Doug is also a
member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.