Gingrich sure to be in firing line at GOP debate Saturday

DES MOINES — Saturday’s GOP presidential debate comes in the midst of a rumble over religion, record and character before the Iowa caucuses begin weeding out the weak.

At the center of the storm is newly minted front-runner Newt Gingrich, while the once-anointed Mitt Romney throws punches, Texas Congressman Ron Paul accuses him of hypocrisy and back-of-the-pack hopefuls like Texas Gov. Rick Perry scrabble for evangelical voters’ support.

The former U.S. House speaker’s lead puts a target on his back in the debate at Drake University as time wanes for candidates to gain a foothold before the first-in-the-nation contest of the Jan. 3 caucuses.

“It’s his turn in the dunk tank, and the question is whether anybody manages to dunk him,” said Dennis Goldford, professor of political science at Drake.

A clear lead

Newt Gingrich, who was once all but written off in the presidential race, has suddenly surged in the polls. (Photo by John W. Adkisson/Getty Images)

A Real Clear Politics poll average showed Gingrich with 29.8 percent in Iowa, with former Massachusetts Gov. Romney and Paul at 17.4 percent apiece. Perry had 9.2 percent, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann 9 percent, former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum was at 5.6 percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman had 2 percent. Huntsman, who has given up on Iowa, is not part of the debate because he did not meet the threshold of support.

Goldford said the other candidates have to go after Gingrich “if they want to stop the increasing coalescence around him.” He said the key question then becomes “How does he respond? Who comes out — Dr. Jekyll, or Mr. Hyde?”

Gingrich, whose campaign was once all but written off, has emerged out front largely on the strength of strong performances in debates — the forum that helped sink Perry because of his faltering efforts and missteps.

The former speaker, however, also can come across as lecturing, an attitude that Goldford described as “absolute apocalyptic certainty” giving his pronouncements the unspoken subtext of “if you don’t see it my way, you’re obviously an idiot.”

It is a persona that University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle describes as the “grumpy professor,” and is not his only potential weakness. Gingrich “doesn’t have the campaign organization in Iowa that’s so critical to turnout on caucus night,” he said.

Gingrich also has a record foes are picking apart.

“Gingrich needs to understand that this is a soft support,” Hagle said. “Right now, it’s based partly on his being the next in line, but also, of course, his strong debate performances. People are looking at that, and not looking, perhaps, at why they dismissed him early on as a strong candidate.”

Consulting faulted

Gingrich has taken heat for his lucrative consulting work for mortgage giant Freddie Mac and health companies, which he insists did not amount to lobbying, but critics like Paul suggest shows opportunism. His proposal that illegal immigrants who have built a life in this country be given a chance at legal residency has been blasted. His positions on health care mandates and climate change, and his description of the Medicare plan backed by Republicans in the U.S. House as “right-wing social engineering,” also have come under fire.

Romney backers, turning around a charge leveled at their candidate, suggest Gingrich is a flip-flopper. Some imply his bombastic past shows he may embarrass the GOP.

Besides his policy stands, Gingrich’s personal background provides additional fodder, since he has been divorced twice and acknowledged an extramarital affair. While GOP foes may be reluctant to lob a direct personal attack, Romney has showcased his long marriage in an ad. Perry has said the matter’s up to voters but added that he personally “made an oath to God,” as well as his wife, when he married.

Perry has made a campaign issue of faith as he seeks to win over the important evangelical bloc, creating a firestorm with an ad decrying gay people serving openly in the miltary and accusing President Obama of a war on religion. The ad has sparked criticism, parodies and hundreds of thousands of “dislike” votes on YouTube.

Perry’s gaffes

As Perry sought to recover from missteps — including his inability in a debate to remember one of the three federal departments he wants to abolish — he had another memory problem Friday in an interview with the Des Moines Register’s editorial board.

Seeking to criticize the justices that President Obama had named to the Supreme Court, Perry forgot Justice Sonia Sotomayor’s name.

“Not Montemayor,” he said in the interview, which was livestreamed. A newspaper employee prompted him with Sotomayor’s name.

On prayer in schools, Perry said, “I trust those independent school districts to make those decisions better than eight, unelected, and frankly, unaccountable judges.” There are nine justices on the U.S. Supreme Court.

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said by email that at the debate “Gingrich will probably get mauled from all directions — if the other candidates have any sense. They have no choice.

Either the non-Romney candidates try to steal (or in some cases, take back) voters from Gingrich, or they are finished.”