Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: All the Marbles

Fantasy owners hoping Danario Alexander might avoid Antonio Cromartie's shadow coverage in Week 16 had their hopes dashed Tuesday when Malcom Floyd (ankle) hit year-ending injured reserve. Coming off a catch-less game where coach Ron Rivera admitted Carolina's defense changed coverages to "focus" on taking Alexander away from Philip Rivers, DX would be a very poor fantasy title-week play. Here are the final stat lines of the last four wide receivers covered by Cromartie: Kenny Britt 1-7, Justin Blackmon 6-57, Larry Fitzgerald 1-23, Brandon Lloyd 3-26. ... The Chargers figure to choose between Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal, and Micheal Spurlock to fill the hole left by Floyd's loss. It's an obvious fantasy situation to avoid. ... The Jets rank second in the NFL in pass defense and have answers for just about everything San Diego is capable of doing in the passing game. No. 21 overall fantasy quarterback Rivers is a bottom-barrel QB2.

The one San Diego pass catcher who might rise above is Antonio Gates, mostly by process of elimination. Gates found pay dirt in Week 15 garbage time and has been the NFL's third most heavily targeted tight end over the past three weeks. Despite disappointing production all year, NFL Films tape maven Greg Cosell suggested this week that Gates hasn't lost a step. "It's not as if he can't move or can't run," Cosell said. "I think he actually runs pretty good. But there's just no continuity (to the Chargers' offense)." ... Jackie Battle and Curtis Brinkley have a seemingly attractive on-paper matchup versus the Jets' No. 29 run defense, but they're more likely to prove fool's gold. Battle and Brinkley will encounter the same inept Chargers offense that contributed to Ryan Mathews' ineffectiveness, and there are no guarantees on Week 16 workload distribution. Battle is an early-down thumper and the favorite for goal-line carries, which could be meaningful in the unlikely event San Diego's offense enters scoring position. Brinkley is a passing-down specialist lacking inside running chops. Battle would be the preferred option in standard fantasy leagues, but true championship contenders will ignore the Chargers' backfield this week.

Friday Update: Battle and Brinkley already both had the look of poor flex options in finals week, and Ronnie Brown's return to full practice on Friday is likely to render San Diego's backfield a three-headed committee. Brown is listed as probable and will play. None of the three Chargers runners is likely to reach 15 touches against the Jets.

"It's chuck-and-duck offense," is how ESPN's Trent Dilfer described Jets OC Tony Sparano's unit following last Monday night's embarrassing loss at Tennessee. "Pick and stick. It's, in practice this guy was open, so I'm gonna drop back and throw it up, and hopefully he'll catch it. It's just a form of spitball offense and it doesn't work in the National Football League." While I thought that was an interesting quote from Dilfer, I won't waste two minutes of your life explaining why you should avoid the Jets' entire passing game in fantasy championship week. Just look elsewhere. ... The combined record of the teams New York has "won" against this season is 33-50-1, "good" for a .399 winning percentage. Along with Andrew Luck's QB rating, the Jets' six "wins" are one of the most misleading stats of the 2012 NFL season. ... The Shonn Greene-Bilal Powell timeshare will square off Sunday with a San Diego defense that ranks seventh against the run and permits just 3.84 yards per carry. Neither Greene (13-68) nor Powell (6-28) paid dividends as a flex play in Nashville, and it's well within the realm of possibility that neither will against a much better Chargers defense. No Jets skill-position player is a good title-week fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Chargers 17, Jets 6

4:05PM ET Game

Cleveland @ Denver

I've seen some fantasy title-week concern regarding Joe Haden's potential shadow coverage of Demaryius Thomas. I tend to believe it won't even happen. Thomas runs most of his routes against right cornerbacks, and the Browns have left 33-year-old RCB Sheldon Brown on that side of the field since early in the season because he's held up relatively well. Haden has stayed home at left corner. If that defensive design sticks -- and here's guessing it will -- Eric Decker will see more of Haden while Thomas draws Brown. ... All that said, Brown got absolutely torched by Kirk Cousins' Redskins last week. Leonard Hankerson was his responsibility on a 54-yard touchdown bomb, and Josh Morgan beat Brown for a 32-yard fourth-quarter gain. Pierre Garcon also racked up several underneath catches in Brown's coverage. I like Thomas to lead the Broncos in Week 16 receiving as a hero of fantasy championship week. ... The Haden factor should give Decker owners some pause, despite a two-week hot run. Peyton Manning loves to pick apart favorable matchups and will likely put a bulls-eye on the Brown-Thomas assignment, targeting it relentlessly. Expect the box-score pendulum to swing back to Thomas this week, and consider Decker a WR3.

Cleveland's defense is falling apart just in time for a date with Manning, who's the No. 6 fantasy quarterback through 14 games. One of the top safeties in football, Browns SS T.J. Ward was lost for the season in Week 15 due to a bone bruise on his knee. Ward often mirrors tight ends in coverage, so his absence may translate to more openings for the Jacob Tamme-Joel Dreessen combo. Like Brandon Stokley, Tamme and Dreessen are not viable Week 16 fantasy plays, but any uptick in production from Denver's role-playing pass catchers would stand to benefit their quarterback. ... Ward's loss may be felt even more against the run, where Pro Football Focus grades him as the NFL's premier run-support safety, and by a significant margin. Even with Ward in the lineup, Raiders, Redskins, and Chiefs halfbacks have tagged Cleveland for 348 yards and four TDs on 69 carries (5.04 YPC) over the past three games. It also stands to reason that Denver could build a big lead at home versus a vastly inferior Browns team, translating to a high volume of Broncos rushing attempts for a fourth straight week. Excelling in the old Joseph Addai role, Knowshon Moreno has graduated to high-end RB2 status while proving a late-year fantasy stud.

With Brandon Weeden plateauing after improving for most of the season's first half, Cleveland will have trouble moving the ball through the air against Von Miller and Champ Bailey's top-eight pass defense. Weeden remains a one-read passer who locks onto the first receiver in his progressions, leading to head-scratching throws and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio over his last four games. "My big concern with Weeden -- and I've watched every game -- is he's a little slow-twitch," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed this week. "He's not particularly light on his feet or quick in the pocket. He's a little stiff. He needs to quicken everything he does. ... I'm not sure the slow-twitch can really be worked on. And they're gonna have a very interesting offseason decision to make with their new management group." ... Bailey can render Josh Gordon a non-factor, and Cleveland's other pass catchers exhibit no big-play ability. It's going to be a long day for the Browns. ... Greg Little won't have an easy go of it, either, in Week 16. The Browns use Little similarly to Anquan Boldin in Baltimore, moving him inside on passing downs. Broncos RCB/slot corner Chris Harris held Boldin catch-less last week, on six targets. Little is not on the championship week fantasy radar.

Although the Broncos surrender the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, Ben Watson essentially plays in a three-tight end weave with Jordan Cameron and Alex Smith. Cameron, in fact, led the production-sapping committee with three receptions for 34 yards last week. It's a situation to avoid in fantasy title games. ... No. 6 overall fantasy running back Trent Richardson is the lone Browns skill-position player worth starting confidently against the Broncos. Cleveland playcaller Pat Shurmur figures to reemphasize featuring Richardson after abandoning the run in the second half of last week's loss to Washington, giving his rookie runner just two carries in the final two quarters. While Richardson has not demonstrated the explosive, game-breaking ability evident on his college tape this season, he's always a strong bet for touchdowns. Richardson has scored six times over the past four weeks. He's averaging 23 touches per game during that span.

Friday Update: Cameron will miss Sunday's game with a concussion after failing to pass the NFL's protocol testing this week. Watson should receive increased pass-catching opportunities against a Denver defense that's been leaky in tight-end coverage. While Tony Scheffler and Dennis Pitta would be superior options, Watson is at least worth a desperation look as a low-end TE1.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Browns 13

4:25PM ET Games

Chicago @ Arizona

As you probably know by now, the Bears' sieve-like offensive line has caught up with them down the season's stretch. Primarily due to injuries and an early-season turnover rate that was always unsustainable, the defense is no longer effective enough to carry the team. The Bears have lost five of their last six, a span during which Jay Cutler has posted a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio while missing one game with a concussion. And facing the Cardinals' defense in Arizona will be no Week 16 cakewalk. The Cards play top-four pass defense, rank top-seven in sacks, and no team in football has more interceptions through 14 games. Cutler won't get a break from DC Ray Horton's blitz-heavy group. He's a low-end QB2. ... A week removed from serving up 10 catches for 121 yards to Calvin Johnson despite "box and one" and "punt gunner" coverage to give him help, Patrick Peterson is telling folks he's the best cornerback in the league. The Bears' passing game probably won't have enough overall success Sunday to support more than one fantasy-viable pass catcher, but Brandon Marshall ought to still get "his." Marshall ranks first in fantasy receiver scoring and third in the NFL in targets, and he'll eat Peterson alive whenever he gets off-coverage cushion.

Alshon Jeffery remains a promising prospect, but he's cleared 50 yards in one of his last seven games and was held catch-less last week by Packers CB Sam Shields, who isn't generally regarded as a shutdown corner. Earl Bennett's (concussion) return may also cut into Jeffery's snaps. Marshall is the only Chicago receiver on the Week 16 fantasy radar. ... Horton's defense is most vulnerable on the ground, where the Cards rank 28th against the run and provide Matt Forte with a strong title-week fantasy matchup. Although Forte was stuffed repeatedly at the goal line last week, he's racked up at least 110 total yards and/or a touchdown in three consecutive games and will continue to be leaned on heavily with Michael Bush (ribs) lost to injured reserve. Bears OC Mike Tice did talk up Kahlil Bell as a potential Week 16 short-yardage alternative, but Forte should have no trouble exceeding 20 touches versus a vulnerable defense. Forte offers upside in RB2 slots this week. The Bears have not been playing postseason-caliber football for the last month and a half, but they still should mostly control this game against a brutal Cardinals team.

Full disclosure: Desperation has forced me into starting Beanie Wells in one of my fantasy Super Bowls. I don't feel the least bit good about it, but Wells' matchup is favorable against a Bears run defense that's gone in the tank since midseason, and I am slightly encouraged by Ryan Lindley's Week 15 best game of the year. All of that is incredibly glass-half-full analysis, of course; I hope you aren't forced to do the same. Although he's scored five fluky touchdowns the past four weeks, Wells has run unimpressively all season (2.75 YPC) and plays behind an offensive line that allows no margin for error. View him as a low-end flex option. ... Larry Fitzgerald can be expected to draw Charles Tillman's shadow coverage all game while facing the Bears' top-six pass defense. Here are Fitz's stat lines in Lindley's 2012 starts: 3-31, 1-23, 4-22. Counting on Fitzgerald in title week would take quite the leap of faith. ... Andre Roberts, Rob Housler, Early Doucet, Michael Floyd, and La'Rod Stephens-Howling all should've been dropped from fantasy rosters sometime ago. ... Although Chicago is racking up losses and Arizona is coming off a win, let's not forget that Lindley plays behind the NFL's swiss-cheesiest offensive line and the Bears rank top-ten in sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles. Chicago's defense is a recommended play in Week 16.

Score Prediction: Bears 20, Cardinals 10

NY Giants @ Baltimore

Although it took place due primarily to necessity, the biggest change in Baltimore's offense during Jim Caldwell's Week 15 playcalling debut was Dennis Pitta's featured receiver role. With Champ Bailey shutting down Torrey Smith (1-14) before Smith's concussion and Broncos slot CB Chris Harris putting Anquan Boldin (0-0) on ice, Pitta delivered a career-best stat line of 7-125-2 against Denver, pacing the Ravens with ten targets. Pitta has a Week 16 matchup to stay hot versus a Giants defense that surrenders the fourth most receptions and fourth most yardage to tight ends. ... Pitta has quietly been on a tear for the past month, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games. Joe Flacco's target distribution during that span: Boldin 29, Pitta 28, Smith 27, Ray Rice 22, Jacoby Jones 15, Tandon Doss 9. ... Boldin has a favorable title-week matchup versus Giants struggling rookie corner Jayron Hosley, on whom opponents are picking relentlessly. Hosley plays RCB on base defensive downs and covers the slot in the nickel. In Week 15, Hosley gave up Julio Jones' 40-yard touchdown and most of slot receiver Harry Douglas' season-high 83 yards. Boldin is hard to love coming off the goose egg, but his Week 16 recipe is ripe for a bounce-back game.

Smith's (concussion) Week 16 status is questionable, even if his return to a limited practice on Thursday was a positive sign. If Smith is active -- and we may not have a good read until late Sunday afternoon -- he'll be a boom-or-bust WR3 against a Giants defense with shaky corners whom Smith is capable of running by. Smith hasn't made an end-zone trip since early November, failing to clear 40 yards in four of his last five games. ... If Smith does not play, inconsistent underachiever Jacoby Jones would draw the start. ... Flacco will face off with the Giants' No. 28 pass defense Sunday in a plus matchup on paper. Although Flacco's on-field performance has left much to be desired recently, he typically plays quality football at home and is a high-end QB2. ... Rookie change-of-pace back Bernard Pierce's concussion will sideline him for Week 16, which should stabilize Rice's workload against New York's 22nd-ranked run defense. Pierce has siphoned over eight touches a game over the past month. Rice's matchup is attractive, and he is a candidate for 25-plus touches against the G-Men. Start him as a top-six fantasy back in title week.

Friday Update: Although Smith is indeed listed as questionable on the injury report, he practiced on a limited basis on both Thursday and Friday and the Baltimore Sun reported he's likely to play. Smith's downside is apparent in his recent box scores, but he offers an enticing amount of upside against a weak Giants secondary. I'd struggle to keep him out of a WR3 slot.

Eli Manning appeared to turn his season around in a Week 14 four-touchdown game against the Saints. He went right back in the tank last week in Atlanta, completing 52 percent of 25 attempts with no touchdowns and two picks. "His fundamentals in the pocket have become very erratic and sloppy," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed. "... This offense is struggling. Eli has not played well. He's had a very inconsistent season." Not helping matters is the fact that Hakeem Nicks (knee) can no longer create downfield separation, allowing defenses to focus attention on Victor Cruz. While Baltimore's pass defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, it's permitted the fewest touchdown passes in football and has quietly played better of late. Eli is not a recommended starter in the fantasy finals. ... Manning's target distribution since the Week 11 bye: Nicks 36, Cruz 28, Martellus Bennett 20, Domenik Hixon 10, Ahmad Bradshaw 6, David Wilson and Rueben Randle 4. ... Although the targets continue to be there, Nicks' diminishing on-field effectiveness caught up to him against the Falcons and he was held to 40 scoreless yards on three catches. Downgrade Nicks to dicey WR3 at Baltimore. Nicks' production has become very Eli-dependent late in the year.

The increased defensive focus has affected Cruz's consistency in the season's second half, but he's still the premier wide receiver play on either side of Giants-Ravens. Set to square off with special teamer-turned-LCB/slot corner Corey Graham on a heavy majority of Sunday's snaps, Cruz should not have trouble leading New York in receiving. ... The fact that Bennett is third in line for targets in a struggling passing attack bodes poorly for his outlook this week, as does the fact that Baltimore's defense has limited tight ends to the fifth fewest fantasy points in football. ... The Giants are likely to have more running than passing success against the Ravens, who field the NFL's No. 26 rush defense and got blown up for 167 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns by Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman, and Jacob Hester last week. Unfortunately, New York's backfield lacks clarity with Ahmad Bradshaw (knee) missing practice all week and David Wilson (12-55) coming off a disappointing NFL starting debut, even if his production was torpedoed more by game flow and a huge early deficit than his own performance. If Bradshaw does play, consider him a back-end RB2. If Bradshaw doesn't, Wilson will remain an enticing flex option with god-given talent to bounce back big in what figures to be a more competitive affair.

Friday Update: Bradshaw returned to Friday's practice on a limited basis. He is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. The New York beat writers anticipate a "hot-hand" approach in the Giants' backfield. Start G-Men running backs in title week at your own risk.

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Ravens 20

Sunday Night Football

San Francisco @ Seattle

49ers-Seahawks is a difficult game to try to project with confidence. Both offenses have come so far since their Week 7 meeting, which had a 13-6 result. Quarterback play on each side has improved dramatically, and the offenses have been opened up. But Seattle and San Francisco's team strengths remain on the other side of the ball, and big-time defenses tend to shut down good offenses. The Vegas experts have an over-under of 39 on Niners-Hawks, as one of just three Week 16 games with point projections of fewer than 40. I tend to agree that this will be a relatively low-scoring affair, but it could go either way and I really like the over. ... One area in which the 49ers may have an offensive edge on the Seahawks' defense is an ability to move opponents in the run game. The Niners' power-blocking O-Line cleared lanes consistently in the Week 7 matchup, as Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter combined for 162 yards on 25 carries (6.48 YPC). The Seahawks' run defense really hasn't been the same since. Seattle quietly serves up the eighth highest yards-per-carry average (4.51) in the NFL, supporting Gore's matchup as favorable. Coach Jim Harbaugh won't be afraid to attack the Seahawks with the run, so start Gore as a low-end RB1 in Week 16. ... LaMichael James has replaced Hunter in the change-of-pace role, although the explosive rookie's biggest impact has been in the return game. James doesn't get the ball enough on offense to be a viable flex play.

Through five starts, Colin Kaepernick has completed 85-of-128 throws (66.4 percent) for 1,083 yards (8.46 YPA), and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He's added two more touchdowns on the ground and averaged 6.31 yards per carry. Kaepernick is the No. 5 overall fantasy quarterback over that span, behind only Newton, Brady, Romo, and Brees. Even in a tough matchup with Seattle's top-three pass defense, Kaepernick has earned a back-end QB1 start with obvious upside for more. In last Sunday's win over the Patriots, Harbaugh unleashed the most aggressive game plan of his 49ers coaching tenure. It worked, and I think that bodes well for Kaepernick's Week 16 box-score outlook. ... What'd bode even better for top receiver Michael Crabtree would be Seahawks top CB Richard Sherman's absence from this game. Sherman's four-game PEDs suspension appeal will be heard on Friday. Fantasy owners needing tiebreakers for lineup decisions on Kaepernick and Crabtree can use the outcome of Sherman's appeal to lean one way or another. If Sherman does not play Sunday night, Seattle will be minus both starting corners. RCB Brandon Browner has two weeks left on his own four-game ban. ... Harbaugh tried to involve Vernon Davis more against New England, as Kaepernick targeted him on two bomb attempts. Davis secured neither, finishing with one catch for ten yards. Davis was held catch-less in the aforementioned Week 7 game. Seattle is 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so this isn't the greatest matchup.

Friday Update: ESPN reported Friday that the Seahawks do not expect to learn the results of Sherman's appeal until next week at the soonest. So he is expected to play in Sunday night's game. Sherman is a top-five cover corner, so his availability removes some luster from both Kaepernick and Crabtree's matchups. Kaepernick should still be viewed as a viable low-end QB1, perhaps with a slightly lower ceiling. Crabtree can expect Sherman to shadow him all over the field, and is a WR3.

One intangible factor that may adversely affect San Francisco in Sunday night's game is fatigue. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a whopping 94 snaps against the Pats, as New England ran its speed-no-huddle offense for the entirety of the second half. For perspective, an average snap total is about 65. 49ers defenders might lose their legs a bit as this game wears on. In his last two meetings with the Niners, Marshawn Lynch has racked up 210 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries (5.25 YPC). So despite San Francisco's top-three run defense ranking, matchup-proof Lynch should be locked in as an RB1. ... One injury situation to monitor for Seattle's offense is 49ers RE Justin Smith's elbow ailment. Smith didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and ultra-reliable 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco wrote this week that there is "serious doubt" about Smith's availability for Sunday night. Justin is a critical part of the Niners' defense, as he plays adjacent NFL sacks leader Aldon Smith on passing downs and holds commands double teams, often freeing Aldon to rush the passer unblocked on inside stunts. With Justin on the sideline during the second half of the Patriots game, San Francisco's pass rush evaporated.

Russell Wilson's target distribution since Seattle's Week 11 bye: Sidney Rice 22, Golden Tate 18, Doug Baldwin 16, Zach Miller 15, Lynch and Anthony McCoy 8. ... With physical press coverage on the perimeter, the Niners' top-five pass defense put breaks on Rice (2-32) and Tate (0-0) in the Week 7 matchup. Ben Obomanu, who has since hit injured reserve, led Seattle in receiving (3-50). Wilson has gotten markedly better since midseason, but the Seahawks still seem unlikely to successfully generate consistent ball movement through the air against the Niners' defense, even if Justin Smith misses the game. Seattle's best means of sustaining offense will be on the ground. Consider Wilson a high-end QB2, but he should probably be avoided in standard-league lineups. Rice will be an iffy WR3. Tate, Miller, Baldwin, and McCoy should not be started in title week.

Friday Update: Rice (knee) was limited in Friday's practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Coach Pete Carroll expects him to play against the 49ers, but Rice should probably be left on fantasy benches with shaky health in a very difficult matchup. If Rice is less than 100 percent -- and the signs suggest he will be -- it'll also be concerning for Russell Wilson.

Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Seahawks 20

Saturday Night Football

Atlanta @ Detroit

So much for The Madden Curse. Calvin Johnson must average 91 receiving yards per game in Weeks 16-17 to break Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848. Megatron is averaging 119.1 yards per game this year and averaged 105.1 last year, so he looks like a cinch for the all-time mark. Playing indoors at Ford Field in the NFL's pass-heaviest offense, there isn’t a better receiver play in fantasy title week. ... Matthew Stafford's target distribution since Ryan Broyles and Titus Young were declared done for the year in Week 13: Johnson 50, Tony Scheffler 22, Kris Durham and Joique Bell 14, Brandon Pettigrew and Will Heller 8, Mikel Leshoure 6, Mike Thomas 4. ... Although Scheffler's production has underwhelmed since being elevated to the No. 2 option in Detroit's pass game, he's played nearly 70 percent of the offensive snaps the past two weeks and will square off Saturday night with a Falcons defense that has allowed the 12th most yards to tight ends. Scheffler is in a good situation, and this is a good matchup. He's a worthwhile back-end TE1 for fantasy leaguers still scrambling at the position. ... Pettigrew suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 14 and may not play the rest of the way. ... Midseason trade acquisition Thomas has fallen behind Durham, who was on the practice squad three weeks ago. Even in a high-volume Lions passing attack, only Johnson and Scheffler are realistic Week 16 fantasy starts.

There are a few reliable aspects to Stafford's game: He delivers the ball with power and velocity. He teases with accurate throws from different platforms, before one is inevitably returned for a pick six. Volume can buoy Stafford in an offense that leads the NFL in pass attempts -- by 64 (nearly two games' worth). Much less reliable has been his fantasy performance. Chiefly to blame for the Lions' six-game losing streak, Stafford has churned out clunkers in three of the last five weeks. Even against Atlanta's feisty, opportunistic pass defense, Stafford is plenty capable of rebounding from last week's Disaster in the Desert. Will he deliver? Your guess is as good as mine. One thing is for sure: Gambling LCB Asante Samuel is licking his chops. ... Detroit's ground game has a favorable matchup versus Atlanta's No. 24 run defense, although the usage split between Leshoure and Bell has been a bit of a weekly conundrum. While Bell tends to be more involved when Detroit encounters pass-heavy situations, Leshoure has established himself as the superior fantasy play with a stranglehold on goal-line work. He's scored seven touchdowns over the last seven games, despite managing just 196 yards on his last 64 runs (3.06 YPC). Though Leshoure runs with purpose and power, he's been a bit of a plodder in his first season back from a torn Achilles'. He's still a respectable flex option in what projects as a high-scoring game. Change-of-pace back Bell should not be under consideration for fantasy title contenders.

Matt Ryan endured a four-game slump that began right after midseason, but he's snapped out of it since. Still sixth in QB scoring, Ryan has completed 50 of his last 67 passes (74.6 percent) for 572 yards (8.54 YPA) and a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He shredded a red-hot Giants defense last week. Facing the NFC's most banged-up secondary Saturday, Ryan should have no trouble staying hot in the dome. Only Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and perhaps Tony Romo would be superior Week 16 quarterback plays. ... Ryan's target distribution since Julio Jones returned from his ankle scare four games ago: Jones 34, Roddy White 30, Tony Gonzalez 26, Jason Snelling 13, Jacquizz Rodgers and Harry Douglas 11, Michael Turner 6. ... With White battling a balky knee, Jones has seamlessly stepped into Atlanta's No. 1 pass option role. Jones has four touchdowns during that month-long span, catching at least five passes in all four games. Expect more fireworks in Julio's matchup with Lions sixth-round rookie RCB Jonte Green. ... At least for receiver-rich fantasy owners, White should be viewed as a dicier play. White has reached pay dirt once over his last eight games, and projects to man up with Lions top CB Chris Houston on the majority of Saturday's snaps. The game's high-scoring outlook and ideal environs will make White impossible to bench in three-receiver leagues, but he's more WR3 than WR2 in Week 16.

The Lions permit the eighth most fantasy points and fourth most touchdowns to tight ends. Still the No. 1 fantasy tight end on the year, Gonzo should be locked into lineups on Saturday night. ... Douglas' 83 yards in Week 15 were his most in 19 games and not a sign of things to come. ... Turner has scored a touchdown in five straight games. He's just become impossible to project for productive rushing efforts with 237 yards on his last 80 carries (2.96 YPC). As is always the case, Turner paying dividends as a Week 16 fantasy starter will depend wholly on whether he scores at the goal line. Turner is a dice-roll flex play. ... Even during the five-week period where his role has increased significantly at the expense of Turner's, Rodgers has averaged just 11 touches for 54 total yards per game, with one touchdown. Rodgers has not been a strong fantasy start at any point this year, and lacks the natural running ability to be one in the future. Although he can make defenders miss in space, Quizz possesses scant short-area burst and minimal power at 5'6/196.

Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Lions 24

1:00PM ET Games

New Orleans @ Dallas

At a seemingly conservative 51.5 points, Saints-Cowboys has the largest over-under of Week 16. Both clubs field top-four passing offenses, and they'll do battle beneath the JerryWorld dome. Be excited to start your studs. ... "He is driving this team to victory in desperate measures," ESPN's Steve Young said of Tony Romo on this week's Monday Night Countdown. "I think the last two weeks of the season are gonna be more of this; making the big throws." Added Ron Jaworski, "I'm not sure the (Cowboys) win a game without Tony Romo. He's been absolutely phenomenal. Over the last month, he's been carrying the football team." Across the past four weeks, Romo has a 9:3 TD-to-INT ratio and is averaging 338.3 passing yards per game. Only Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees are superior title-week quarterback plays. ... Since breaking his left index finger in the fourth quarter of Week 14, Dez Bryant has secured 6-of-11 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Sure to be more comfortable in his second game playing through the injury, Bryant needs to be viewed as a high-upside WR1 versus New Orleans' No. 31 pass defense. "The one thing that stands out on film -- and this is necessary if you're truly to reach that elite level at receiver -- is he now wins against double coverage," NFL Films guru Greg Cosell said of Bryant on Adam Caplan's Week 16 Preview Podcast. "All elite receivers get double covered, and you've gotta be able to win. And he's winning against double coverage, and that's critical."

The Saints have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends and will play without FS Malcolm Jenkins (hamstring) on Sunday. On pace to break Tony Gonzalez's single-season record for receptions by a tight end, Jason Witten should be locked into fantasy lineups. ... Whereas Bryant will attempt to get open against Saints outside CBs Patrick Robinson and Jabari Greer, Miles Austin arguably has the most attractive Week 16 matchup of Dallas pass catchers versus a New Orleans defense that has struggled to defend slot receivers all year long. They used special teamer Elbert Mack in the role last week. Austin is a rock-solid WR3 with a higher ceiling than his recent stats suggest. ... Proving his ankle injury is behind him, DeMarco Murray has hit pay dirt in all three games since returning in Week 13. Also averaging 23.3 touches a game over that span, Murray is approaching RB1 value versus the Saints' 31st-ranked run defense. Finding a groove with 110 yards on his last 22 carries (5.00 YPC), Murray is operating as a true every-down back, as well. Phased out of the offense, Felix Jones has totaled nine snaps the past two weeks.

"He was a turnover machine," Jaws conceded of Brees, referring to Weeks 13-14. "Well, all that stopped (in Week 15). No. 9 looked like the Drew Brees we've come to know and love." Brees shredded the Bucs for 307 yards and four touchdowns, avoiding turnovers for the first time since Week 11. While the Cowboys' No. 14 pass defense is better than Tampa Bay's, Dallas has glaring holes over the middle and down the seam after losing both starting inside linebackers to injured reserve. Top backup Ernie Sims is tentatively expected to play despite suffering a concussion last week. Brees can attack Sims and replacement ILBs Dan Connor and Alex Albright with success, and is a shoo-in top-five QB1. ... Brees' target distribution over the last three games: Jimmy Graham 25, Darren Sproles 24, Lance Moore 20, Marques Colston 18, Pierre Thomas 13, Devery Henderson 8, Joe Morgan 7, David Thomas 2. ... Graham's numbers are down due to a nagging wrist injury and increased defensive attention, but he's still been hogging targets and will be Brees' best means of exposing Dallas' inside 'backer deficiencies. Heath Miller poured seven catches, 92 yards, and a touchdown on the Cowboys last week, and after the game Ben Roethlisberger complained that Steelers OC Todd Haley didn't exploit that matchup enough. Pay-dirt due after a four-game scoring drought, Graham is the No. 2 fantasy tight end in champions week, behind only Aaron Hernandez.

Look for Colston to get back on track as well against a Cowboys defense scrambling at slot corner following Orlando Scandrick's season-ending injury. Colston is the No. 15 fantasy receiver and a recommended WR2. ... Always a good bet for quality WR3 stats in shootout games, Moore is the No. 18 overall fantasy wideout the past five weeks. ... Streak-route specialist Morgan has caught nine passes this year; eight have gone for 27 or more yards. Morgan isn't targeted enough for serious fantasy-finals consideration, but his improvement is good news for Brees. Morgan's stat lines the past two weeks: 2-106, 2-61-1. He's rendered Henderson a non-factor. ... Sproles now has 19 touches and three TDs the past two games, and along with Graham is a weapon with which Brees can pepper Connor and Albright over the middle. Sproles is a recommended flex, especially in PPR. ... While Pierre Thomas continues to take a backseat and Chris Ivory (hamstring) remains inactive, Mark Ingram has taken over as New Orleans' clear-cut primary ball carrier. Ingram quietly has 158 yards and two touchdowns on his last 28 carries (5.64 YPC) and gives the Saints yet another way to attack Dallas' inside linebackers as a between-the-tackles runner. Ingram would be a risky flex play without a ton of upside against the Cowboys, but he's a decent bet to score.

Friday Update: Ivory is listed as questionable for Week 16 after a week of limited practices. He'll be a game-time decision, but the odds favor Ivory getting one more week before returning for the regular season finale. In the seemingly unlikely event Ivory is active Sunday morning, his presence would threaten Ingram's start-ability in flex spots.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Cowboys 27

Minnesota @ Houston

Getting back to their philosophical roots following a depressing Week 14 loss to New England, the Texans pounded the ball 32 times with Arian Foster and Ben Tate during last week's bounce-back home win over upstart Indianapolis. Andre Johnson (11-151-1) was featured in a pass game led by highly efficient Matt Schaub (74.2 percent completions, no turnovers) while Foster carried the mail (27-165). This is the brand of offense Houston unfailingly desires to play. Despite matching up with a solid, 13th-ranked Vikes run defense in Week 16, expect more heavy volume from NFL carries leader Foster. ... Foster, by the way, is up to 325 rushing attempts and on pace for 372, which doesn't include what he'll get in the playoffs. He'll be a bit of a red-light risk in 2013 fantasy football. Tate isn't a title-week fantasy option, but he'll be an intriguing mid- to late-round pick in next year's drafts. You can argue that Tate is more explosive than Foster when the blocking frees either back into space. ... 15th in fantasy quarterback scoring, Schaub will be a viable QB2 versus Minnesota's No. 23 pass defense. Reliant Stadium's dome provides a quality setup for passing, and Sam Bradford poured 355 yards and three touchdowns on these same Vikings last week.

Staying on a wicked tear, Johnson has 68 catches for 1,002 yards (14.74 YPR) over his last eight games. Math majors know that's a 2,000-plus-yard pace if extrapolated across 16. Start Johnson as a top-five receiver play in championship week. ... With Johnson hogging targets and production in a relatively low-volume Houston passing attack, Owen Daniels has taken a recent backseat. Daniels is still a top-eight scorer at his position over the course of the season, though, and the Vikings' Cover-2 defense surrenders the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends. Consider Daniels a mid-range to low-end TE1 in Week 16. I'd still view Daniels as more likely to pick up his box-score stats than stay as cold as he's been the past three weeks. ... The Texans' No. 2 receiver spot has morphed into a timeshare between blocking specialist Kevin Walter and improved rookie DeVier Posey. Posey has secured 4-of-5 targets for 65 yards the past two weeks, compared to Walter's 11 yards generated on the same number of pass attempts. Posey and Walter offer no Week 16 appeal, but the youngster is worth monitoring for forward-looking fantasy owners. Walter turns 32 years old before next season and is owed a potentially prohibitive $3.5 million salary.

Adrian Peterson update: The NFL rushing leader needs to average 147 yards per game in Weeks 16-17 to break Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105. Houston ranks fifth in run defense, but a less stout 12th in yards-per-carry allowed, making A.P.'s matchup less imposing than it may seem. Peterson has shredded top-ten run defenses all year anyway. Start him as the best running back play in the league this week and every week. ... Besides Peterson, Kyle Rudolph is the only Vikings skill-position player worth a weekly look in fantasy leagues. Limited to three combined catches for 22 scoreless yards the past two games, Rudolph will square off Sunday with a Texans defense permitting the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. Unfortunately, relying on Rudolph in championship week indirectly means fantasy leaguers would be relying on Christian Ponder, and that's never a great idea. Rudolph will pay dividends if and only if he manages an end-zone trip, bringing an awful lot of downside to the table. ... No Minnesota wide receiver has cleared 50 yards since Week 10. Jerome Simpson, Michael Jenkins, and Jarius Wright are all fantasy trash.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Vikings 20

Buffalo @ Miami

This time of year, savvy fantasy owners put bulls-eyes on teams who've called it a season. Non-contenders that have packed it in. Kind of like last year's Tampa Bay Bucs. "Did the Buffalo Bills practice last week?" ESPN's Ron Jaworski asked rhetorically on Monday Night Countdown, after watching the Buffalo-Seattle tape. "They looked ill prepared for everything the Seattle Seahawks threw at them." Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch deserve credit for magical Week 15 performances, but NFL teams don't generally drop 50-burgers on other NFL teams without "help." The Bills' effort on defense came under early-season fire, and may be an issue again. It's something to consider. ... The Dolphins' likeliest candidate to capitalize on Buffalo's rediscovery of defensive ineptitude is Reggie Bush. Over their last two games, the Bills have been shredded by Lynch and Steven Jackson for a combined 177 yards and two TDs on 29 carries (6.10 YPC). (Not including Wilson's 9-92-3 rushing line.) Bush hasn't been shabby in his own right, racking up 40 touches the past two weeks and averaging 332 yards on his last 66 rushing attempts (5.03 YPC). Daniel Thomas is no longer a factor in Miami's backfield. Bush has been thrust back into the every-down back role with Lamar Miller used minimally as a change of pace.

Whereas Bush is a high-upside RB2/flex versus Buffalo, the Dolphins' pass game is considerably less interesting in fantasy title week. It's a low-volume, popgun attack that ranks 24th in pass attempts and spreads the ball around. Brian Hartline is Miami's nominal No. 1 receiver, but Bills rookie shadow corner Stephon Gilmore held Hartline to 49 scoreless yards on four receptions in these teams' Week 11 meeting. Hartline has one touchdown all year. ... Anthony Fasano's Week 15 usage increased with Davone Bess (back) out of the lineup. Manning the slot on passing downs, Fasano was targeted six times, securing all six for 56 yards and a touchdown. The six targets were Fasano's season high since Week 6. Bess is likely to miss another game, but Fasano has a tougher matchup this week versus a Buffalo defense that ranks 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, and 29th in catches. ... Although Ryan Tannehill has flashed promise as a rookie, he's never emerged as a viable fantasy option due to the fact that Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland has no eye for skill-position talent. Tannehill is a lowly 23rd in fantasy quarterback scoring.

Friday Update: Bess has been ruled out for Week 16. Hartline is battling his own back injury this week and is listed as questionable. While Hartline still figures to play Sunday, the injury combined with his historical struggles against Gilmore make him an undesirable WR3 in title week.

C.J. Spiller's updated statistics in Fred Jackson's last nine missed games: 724 yards on 125 carries (5.79 YPC), with 298 more yards on 32 receptions. He's scored nine all-purpose TDs and averaged 114 total yards a game. It just so happens that Miami's run defense has crossed his path twice during that span, and Spiller has posted touch-yardage-touchdown stat lines of 21-167-2 and 25-130 against them. A matchup-proof RB2 with every-week RB1 upside, Spiller should be started as a top-15 back in Week 16. Also working in Spiller's favor is the healthy return of C Eric Wood from a two-week knee sprain. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick's target distribution over his last five games: Stevie Johnson 49, Scott Chandler 24, T.J. Graham 22, Donald Jones 16, Spiller 14, Brad Smith 8. ... Johnson is the featured player in Buffalo's passing game, and has hit a healthy spell at the back end of an injury-plagued year on the heels of a big offseason contract extension. Johnson has at least 70 yards and/or a touchdown in six straight games. The lone viable fantasy option in the Bills' pass-catching corps for title week, Johnson is a solid WR3 in sunny Miami.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 20, Bills 17

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh

A.J. Green owners will dodge a bullet Sunday as Cincinnati visits a Pittsburgh defense with the most banged-up secondary in the NFL. Top CB Ike Taylor, who held Green to a 1-8-1 stat line in these clubs' October meeting, will miss the game with injuries to his ankle and right fibula. Fill-in Cortez Allen is battling a painful hip pointer and was inactive for last week's loss to Dallas. LCB Keenan Lewis aggravated his own hip injury against the Cowboys and couldn't finish the game. The Steelers will lean on special teamer Curtis Brown and practice squad call-up Josh Victorian for significant Week 16 snaps. Green should have no trouble tiring them out. ... Andy Dalton's target distribution since Mohamed Sanu fractured his foot in November 30 practice: Green 31, Jermaine Gresham 22, Andrew Hawkins 17, Marvin Jones 11, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis 9. ... Gresham often gets stuck on the line blocking in Bengals-Steelers games, and it shows up in the box score. Gresham's four career stat lines against Pittsburgh: 3-19, 3-37, 4-23-1, 2-11. He's not a recommended TE1 this week. ... Although Hawkins and Jones have flashed at certain points this season, neither has been targeted or productive enough to justify as fantasy title-week starts.

The one Week 16 concern for Green is Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's historical befuddling of Dalton. In three career matchups with Pittsburgh, Dalton has completed 40-of-82 passes (48.8 percent) for 410 yards (5.0 YPC), four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Dalton has never topped 170 yards against the Steelers. "Dalton, despite excellent fantasy numbers, has really not played that well," NFL Films' Greg Cosell opined. "He continues to miss throws that are there. He continues to leave plays on the field. He's becoming a little quick to move now, he's perceiving pressure at times. He's not been very sharp." On the road for this one and playing poorly recently, Dalton is not in the QB1 discussion. ... Pittsburgh's top-four run defense held Green-Ellis to 69 scoreless yards on 18 carries when these teams met in Week 7. While the Law Firm is running better these days than he was then -- and getting legitimately dominant blocking up front -- he's going to be difficult to trust for fantasy-worthwhile numbers in such a forbidding matchup. This game projects as a low-scoring, grinding affair between division rivals clinging to shaky playoff hopes. Green-Ellis will likely require a goal-line score to pay off in RB2/flex spots.

Since taking over as Bengals defensive coordinator in 2008, Mike Zimmer has game planned to stop Ben Roethlisberger nine times. Roethlisberger has completed 176-of-282 passes for 2,029 yards (7.20 YPA), and a 9:5 TD-to-INT ratio in those meetings, failing to reach 280 yards in all of them and throwing multiple touchdown passes in 2-of-9 games. The numbers aren't terrible, but they aren't QB1 caliber, either. In a difficult matchup with little to no possibility of a shootout, Big Ben is more high-end QB2 than surefire fantasy starter. ... Roethlisberger's target distribution since returning from injury two games ago: Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown 21, Heath Miller 16, Jonathan Dwyer and Emmanuel Sanders 5, Plaxico Burress 2. ... I like Brown to lead Pittsburgh in Week 15 receiving, facing off with Bengals LCB Terence Newman. RCB Pacman Jones is quietly having a standout season on the other side and will draw Wallace in coverage on most of Sunday's snaps. Brown paced Pittsburgh with 96 yards on seven catches when the Bengals and Steelers met in October. His quickness and change-of-direction skills will be tough for 34-year-old Newman to handle. ... Wallace is still a quality WR2 with 11 catches for 207 yards and two touchdowns since Roethlisberger got back. The Bengals are using top CB Leon Hall in the slot when opponents go three-wide, so Hall may go to waste covering slot receiver Sanders.

Friday Update: The Bengals added Pacman to Friday's injury report as questionable with a hamstring ailment. It appears as if Jones got hurt in Friday's practice, and simply couldn't finish the workout. If Pacman can't play against the Steelers, give Wallace another matchup boost. Cincinnati does not have depth in the secondary to competitively withstand Jones' absence.

Miller shredded Dallas last week for six catches, 85 yards, and a touchdown in the first half. After the game, Roethlisberger complained that OC Todd Haley didn't call enough plays for Miller, he was so smoking hot. Ben later apologized, and Haley may incorporate more of Miller into the Week 16 game plan as the appeasement comes full circle. The Bengals have allowed the tenth most receptions and 11th most yards to tight ends, so this is a plus matchup for Miller any way you slice it. ... The Pittsburgh run game has devolved into a fantasy black hole. Now running behind a makeshift offensive line that will be without mauling LG Willie Colon the rest of the way, blocking-dependent lead back Jonathan Dwyer has been held to 233 yards on his last 73 carries (3.19 YPC). Dwyer may be on an increasingly short leash with Rashard Mendenhall returning from suspension this week. Even Isaac Redman has been more effective than Dwyer of late. The Bengals rank ninth in run defense and the Steelers' backfield carry distribution is up in the air for fantasy championship week. Dwyer is the lone remotely viable option, and he's a desperate flex.

Score Prediction: Steelers 17, Bengals 14

New England @ Jacksonville

All signs point to this being a Stevan Ridley game. Ranked 32nd in both run defense and sacks, Jacksonville's defensive front seven gets consistently moved off the ball en route to the NFL's second most rushing touchdowns allowed (18), as well as a league-high 148.1 rushing yards permitted per game. Although Ridley's Week 15 lost fumble -- just his second all season -- may seem concerning for his Week 16 workload, it's worth noting that the Patriots turned right back to Ridley for a late third-quarter goal-line carry against the 49ers. Ultimately, he experienced reduced playing time due more to a 31-3 deficit, necessitating comeback mode. Game flow forced passing-down specialist Danny Woodhead into the lead back role in the loss. Now facing the 2-12 Jags, expect a role reversal in the New England backfield. Ridley has been an offensive centerpiece for a 2012 Patriots team that ranks third in the NFL in rushing attempts, and the Pats are significantly more likely to use this game to kick start Ridley rather than leave him behind. Start him as a high-upside RB2 in a game the Patriots figure to control from beginning to end, allowing Ridley to rack up 20-plus rushing attempts. Woodhead can be comfortably left on waiver wires. ... Tom Brady's target distribution since Aaron Hernandez returned from his ankle injury four games ago: Wes Welker and Hernandez 46, Brandon Lloyd 31, Woodhead 17, Shane Vereen and Deion Branch 5.

Julian Edelman and Donte' Stallworth's year-ending injuries have locked Lloyd into a prominent late-season role. New England's pass attempts are sure to be down if this game goes as it should -- so don't expect Lloyd to repeat last week's 10-190 line -- but he's been heavily targeted in two straight weeks and has a favorable matchup versus Jacksonville's No. 24 pass defense. Lloyd is a solid WR3 in fantasy title week. ... Hernandez is still the favorite to lead the Pats in Week 16 receiving. With defenses often treating him as a traditional tight end, thus covering Hernandez with linebackers, he leads all players at his position in targets, catches, and touchdowns over the past three weeks. He's the No. 1 fantasy tight end play. ... The targets have been there for Welker, but he's managed two touchdowns over his last eight games and cleared 75 yards twice during that span. Seeing his production dwindle down the stretch for a second straight season, 31-year-old Welker is a WR2 in PPR and WR3 in standard scoring. ... Brady's volume figures to be down in Week 16, but he's a top-four quarterback play because he should be masterfully efficient. The Jaguars generate no pass rush, which projects to a clean pocket for Tom Terrific. Only Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers are better fantasy QB bets in Week 16.

Seemingly light years removed from November's point-scoring mirage, Jacksonville's offense has gone back in the tank. Chad Henne has completed 59 of his last 121 passes (48.8 percent) for 608 yards (5.02 YPA), a touchdown, and three interceptions. And the Jags will have to continue to lean on Henne because they're destined for little or no rushing success against New England's No. 11 run defense. Henne is playing too poorly for more than back-end QB2 consideration, but voluminous pass attempts combined with comeback mode could keep Cecil Shorts rolling after his six-catch, 101-yard Week 15 return from a concussion. With 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in seven of his last eight games, Shorts is a trustworthy WR2. He's playing so well that you could make a good case for Shorts as the best wideout play on either side of Pats-Jags. ... Despite inferior productivity, opponents have routinely matched their No. 1 cornerbacks on Justin Blackmon over the last month. I'd tentatively expect the Patriots to use Aqib Talib on Blackmon in a difficult matchup for the up-and-down rookie. ... New England allows the third most fantasy points to tight ends, but Marcedes Lewis has fallen off the map with single-digit yards in back-to-back weeks. ... Write off the Jaguars' backfield in Week 16. Plodding Montell Owens has another forbidding matchup after the Dolphins stifled him for 53 scoreless yards on 12 touches last week.

Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Jaguars 10

Oakland @ Carolina

Putting fantasy teams on his back since a rocky first half of the season, Cam Newton has soared to No. 2 in quarterback scoring with a 17:2 touchdown-to-turnover ratio over his last seven games. Newton is on pace to significantly improve his TD-to-INT ratio, rushing yardage, yards-per-pass attempt average, and QB rating off last year's record-breaking rookie campaign. In spite of the early-season handwringing, Newton will be selected in 2013 fantasy drafts ahead of where he went this year (ADP: 4.05). A dominant, dual-threat weapon facing an Oakland club that ranks 21st in run defense and 27th against the pass, Newton is the premier quarterback play of fantasy championship week. ... Steve Smith has either a touchdown and/or 100-plus receiving yards in three straight games, riding the tail end of Newton's piping-hot stretch. The Raiders are more prone than any team in football to letting receivers run uncovered through their secondary, and they'll be down to third-string RCB Brandian Ross on Sunday following Phillip Adams' second concussion in three weeks and Ron Bartell's release. Just like teammate Newton, everything about Smith's Week 16 matchup points toward a very big game. Start "89" as a borderline WR1.

Brandon LaFell returned from his turf-toe injury in Week 15 to rotate with Louis Murphy. LaFell played the slot in three-receiver sets and was not targeted. Murphy has brought zero fantasy appeal to the table in 2012. Avoid Carolina's No. 2 receiver spot in finals week. ... The Raiders have permitted the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends, creating a favorable matchup for No. 5 overall fantasy TE Greg Olsen. Olsen is a strong start in Week 16. ... For DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert, last week's box score at San Diego is deceiving. The Panthers jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and took the air out of the ball for most of the second half. Williams' 22 carries were his most since November of 2009. Tolbert vultured two goal-line scores, both of which could have just as easily gone to Cam, and finished with a season-high 11 touches. Williams is a quality Week 16 flex play because Oakland defends the run so poorly, but the Week 15 final stats are not a sign of things to come. His "role" is not "growing." The increased workload had everything to do with game flow specific to that week. Tolbert hasn't been a fantasy asset all season and still isn't.

Friday Update: Carolina's lead back when healthy, Jonathan Stewart (ankle) made a surprise return to Friday's practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report, with beat writers expecting Stewart to play. Panthers coach Ron Rivera insists Stewart will be a game-time decision, but his availability would adversely affect the Week 16 fantasy outlooks of both Williams and Tolbert. Williams' workload would likely be cut in half. Tolbert's prospects already looked grim. In championship week, the Panthers' backfield has now become a fantasy situation to avoid.

The Raiders didn't score any touchdowns, but they too controlled their Week 15 game from start to finish, defeating the hapless Chiefs 15-0 on the strength of fiveSebastian Janikowski field goals. Oakland poured 45 rushing attempts on Kansas City, compared to only 18 Carson Palmer throws. Now facing a Panthers team playing its best football of the season, the Raiders won't churn out ground-game production like last week. Safely dismiss Mike Goodson's 103 total yards as a fluke. ... The Panthers rank a middling 17th in run defense, but surrender a crisp 4.39 yards per carry and can be moved up front. Being employed as a true workhorse again, Darren McFadden has piled up 213 yards and a touchdown on 47 touches the past two weeks. The YPC average and scheme are still issues for DMC, but usage and overall production aren't. Consider him a mid-range RB2 with some upside at Carolina. ... Brandon Myers has now turned in back-to-back clunker games, which is a reminder that he's a target-dependent fantasy commodity and worthless when he's not being targeted heavily. The Panthers rank 19th in receptions allowed to tight ends and 18th in yards. Fantasy title contenders should aim higher than Myers in Week 16.

So much of No. 14 overall fantasy QB Palmer's production has occurred in comeback mode, with his team trailing big and throwing the ball to try to catch up. While the box scores look nice when they're heavily skewed by game flow, it's not a bankable weekly outcome. Squaring off with a Panthers defense that ranks tenth against the pass and can wreak havoc on porous O-Lines like Oakland's, Palmer is not on the Week 16 standard-league radar. Following news that he may be replaced by Terrelle Pryor on some third-down and red-zone plays, Palmer is a dicey start even in two-quarterback settings. ... Not that either is an attractive title-week play, but Rod Streater has passed Darrius Heyward-Bey as the No. 2 option in the Raiders' receiver corps. While DHB was held catch-less in Week 15 for the third time this season, Streater led Oakland in receiving for the third consecutive game. Palmer is exhibiting more chemistry with Streater, who's gotten free for some big plays downfield. Denarius Moore remains the best receiver on the team, but he's failed to clear 50 yards since early November. Aside from perhaps Moore in a roll-of-the-dice WR3 slot, the entirety of Oakland's pass-catching corps is undesirable in fantasy championship week.

Score Prediction: Panthers 28, Raiders 17

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

It's hard to tell if the Chiefs have thrown in the late-season towel, because they've been so bad all year. What's the difference? Fantasy owners should attack Kansas City's defense regardless. The likeliest candidate for a bounce-back game among Colts skill-position players is Reggie Wayne, whose Week 15 letdown (3-14) resulted from bracket coverage and double teams. The Chiefs unfailingly play "sides" at cornerback, leaving top CB Brandon Flowers on the left side, Jalil Brown at right corner, and Javier Arenas in the slot. Based on where he normally lines up, Wayne will play most of his snaps against Arenas and Brown. 12th in receiver scoring on the season, Wayne can win those matchups in his sleep. ... Donnie Avery is the Indy receiver to avoid in Week 16 fantasy lineup decisions, running most of his routes into Flowers' coverage. ... Versatile rookie T.Y. Hilton plays all over the formation (X, Z, slot) and is the No. 7 fantasy receiver over the past five weeks. He's a weekly boom-or-bust play who booms more often than not. ... The Chiefs are only 23rd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, including 31st in receptions and 30th in yards. Coby Fleener's return has made Dwayne Allen a fantasy option to avoid. Allen found pay dirt in Week 15, but managed just 36 yards, and the end-zone trip was his first since early October.

Kansas City's defense has allowed a 25:7 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing passers this season, while generating the third fewest sacks in football. This is a quality matchup for Andrew Luck, who ranks eighth in fantasy quarterback scoring and is a mid-range QB1 play with some upside in Week 16. The Colts run a very vertical-oriented pass offense and Kansas City's secondary is highly susceptible deep. ... Indianapolis coach Bruce Arians head-scratchingly used journeyman third-down back Mewelde Moore in the goal-line role during last week's loss to the Texans. Moore fumbled at the one-yard line early in the second quarter and wasn't heard from again. Arians expressed post-game regret about the decision, so Vick Ballard will be thrust into every-down workhorse duties in Week 16. Although Ballard's lack of true big-play running ability always limits his ceiling to some extent, he'll be a rock-solid flex option against Kansas City's No. 26 run defense. Plodding short-yardage option Delone Carter (ankle) will be inactive again. Donald Brown is on injured reserve.

Throw out Brady Quinn's post-Jovan Belcher game, and he's completed 77-of-137 passes (56.2 percent) for 729 yards (5.32 YPA), zero touchdowns, and six interceptions in seven appearances. The Chiefs have lost all seven. Quinn will play through a rib injury Sunday, so we may yet see Ricky Stanzi make his NFL debut. Rather than look to Kansas City's pass-catching corps for fantasy sleepers, owners should pick up Indianapolis' defense and start them in Week 16. They're a great matchup play for streamers. ... Jamaal Charles received only nine carries in Week 15, gaining ten yards as Kansas City fell to Oakland 15-0. Charles' workload was minimal because the Chiefs possessed the ball for fewer than 20 minutes; the Raiders had it for 40:06. As we've learned for boom-or-bust runners like Charles and Chris Johnson, clunker games in any given week are not necessarily a sign of things to come. They usually are not. The Colts rank 23rd against the run and permit 4.80 yards per carry, which is the fourth highest clip in football. Keep the faith in Charles and start him as a high-end, high-upside RB2 in championship week.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Chiefs 10

Washington @ Philadelphia

Although Nick Foles has theoretically made strides since taking over as Eagles quarterback in mid-November, it's hard to forget his Week 11 start against these same Redskins. Foles fumbled three times, absorbed four sacks, and completed 21-of-46 throws (45.7 percent) for 204 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks. While Foles figures to be better prepared this time around, Redskins DC Jim Haslett's aggressive blitzing and improved overall defense will toughen the rookie's road behind a Philly offensive line that still struggles to pass protect. "The most overlooked element in the Redskins' five-game win streak has been their defense," NFL Films' Greg Cosell stated this week. "... This defense has played significantly better over the last month or so." Coming off last week's step back against the Bengals, Foles is a low-end QB2 in finals week. ... The Redskins do rank 30th against the pass and are willing to send the house on blitzes, leaving their secondary vulnerable if opposing quarterbacks can get the ball out. Jeremy Maclin will have openings in the back end. He's also Philadelphia's most oft-targeted receiver during Foles' stretch under center.

Jason Avant, Riley Cooper, Brent Celek, Damaris Johnson. Behind clear No. 1 receiver Maclin, these will be Foles' alternative pass-game options against the Redskins. Not one of them is a confident fantasy starter in championship games. Celek, returning from a concussion this week, might be the one player worth a look by owners desperate at tight end. No. 2 TE Clay Harbor was placed on injured reserve this week with fractures in his back, and the Redskins have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends. ... Avant is a pedestrian slot receiver lacking playmaking ability. Cooper is a lanky, straight-line, poor man's version of Kevin Walter. No, thanks. ... LeSean McCoy returns from his own concussion in Week 16 to reenter what coach Andy Reid promises will be a committee attack alongside Bryce Brown. I'd expect the Eagles' offense to struggle for ball movement Sunday while McCoy and Brown trade off series, adversely affecting both rhythm and volume in an already daunting matchup with Washington's top-six run defense. Fumble-prone Brown ran hesitant last Thursday night, as if he were more concerned with making mistakes than hitting the hole. Brown now has just 41 yards on his last 29 carries (1.41 YPC). McCoy would be a superior fantasy bet, but ideally it's a situation to avoid.

Robert Griffin III is expected to return from his LCL injury on Sunday, although fantasy owners ought to anticipate a conservative, run-heavy approach. Washington ranks fourth in rush attempts and has been playing ball-control offense all year anyway. It's what they do. With 785 yards on his last 165 carries (4.76 YPC), Alfred Morris should be locked into title-week fantasy lineups. "This guy's been an unbelievable find," ESPN's Ron Jaworski observed of ALF this week, "and a perfect fit for their inside, outside zone-running game. He's a perfect one-cut downhill runner. And people bounce off him." The Eagles' defense has shown signs of life the past two games, but they still rank 20th against the run and got busted up by Cincinnati for 157 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns in Week 15. ... I'd look for Redskins-Eagles to be a relatively low-scoring affair and Washington to be much less aggressive with Griffin on option runs out of the Pistol in his first game back. While playing guys like Josh Freeman, Andy Dalton, or Russell Wilson over Griffin shouldn't fly, RG3 is best viewed as a mid-range to low-end QB1 in championship week.

The Redskins are 7-1 in Pierre Garcon's eight appearances, and he's secured 23 of a team-high 38 targets for 340 yards and three touchdowns the past four weeks. While a dialed-back passing offense is likely in Griffin's return game, Garcon is playing well enough to be considered a high-upside WR3 in a Week 16 date with Nnamdi Asomugha. Asomugha lacks speed to recover when receivers run by him, and tackles poorly when the ball is caught in front of him. Garcon's football-playing strengths are deceptive vertical speed and physical run-after-catch ability. The Redskins should still take a number of downfield shots, and Garcon is likely to be targeted on most or all. ... Leonard Hankerson's two touchdowns in the Kirk Cousins game support the notion that HankTime still has a chance to be a good receiver in the league. Unfortunately, they came on his only two targets of the contest and Hankerson is highly unlikely to repeat the production as a rotational player in Philadelphia. ... Logan Paulsen, Josh Morgan, and Santana Moss make up the rest of Washington's pass-catching corps. They belong on fantasy waiver wires at this point in the year.

Score Prediction: Redskins 20, Eagles 17

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay

At first glance, fantasy leaguers face a bit of a title-week dilemma with Doug Martin. The rookie workhorse has been limited to 252 yards on his last 77 carries (3.27 YPC) in a suddenly sputtering offense, and is coming off a season-worst game. I still think owners should be looking for reasons to start Martin because he's been so good all year. St. Louis' run defense got gashed for 218 yards and two touchdowns on 28 combined rushing attempts (7.79 YPC) by Adrian Peterson and Christian Ponder last week. Martin is the centerpiece of his team's offense, and Bucs rookie coach Greg Schiano is committed to jumpstarting him this week. “One of the things we talked about when we arrived here was establishing a new culture,” Schiano said on Wednesday. " ... Doug Martin is part of establishing that new culture. I think it would be not a good time in our program’s development to say, ‘Hey, Doug, why don’t you go cool off here.'" Look for a heavy workload out of Martin against a Rams defense that ranks 16th against the run and has allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in football. Still the No. 3 fantasy running back on the season -- behind only Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster -- Martin has earned locked-in RB1 treatment in Week 16. ... Struggling Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman's target distribution over the past four games: Vincent Jackson 37, Mike Williams 31, Dallas Clark 26, Tiquan Underwood 25, Martin 16.

Freeman's 2012 stats look good on paper and there have been times this year that Tampa has flashed dominance in the downfield passing game. The Bucs' dirty little secret, however, is that Freeman's success has been wholly dependent on his receivers winning on the outside, and he's been ineffective whenever the run game has struggled. Freeman is inaccurate in the short and intermediate regions, and his performance tends to tank with bodies around him. Now facing a Rams defense whose strength is pass rush and secondary play, Freeman is too risky for QB1 consideration in fantasy Super Bowls. Coming off last week's four-pick disaster, he's simply not playing well enough. ... Jackson, on the other hand, is the No. 4 overall fantasy receiver and an every-week starter. Look for V-Jax to get the better of gambling rookie RCB Janoris Jenkins in their Week 16 matchup. ... Williams will face St. Louis top CB Cortland Finnegan on the majority of Sunday's snaps and is a touchdown-reliant WR3. He'll hurt you if he doesn't find pay dirt. Start him if you think he will. ... St. Louis ranks 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving Clark a middling matchup. Just 22nd in tight end scoring on the season, Clark is a bottom-barrel TE2.

First against the run and dead last versus the pass, the Bucs field the most lopsided defense in football. Steven Jackson's matchup is forbidding enough to drop his outlook from rock-solid RB2 to low-end flex because his ceiling appears to be so capped. Tampa surrenders the NFL's fewest rushing yards per game (83.3) and yards per carry (3.49). ... At the opposite end of the spectrum is Danny Amendola, whom the league's worst secondary will have a difficult time containing in the slot. Over his heel injury, Amendola is off the Week 16 injury report after resuming his featured role with six grabs for 58 yards and a touchdown on a team-high 12 targets in last week's loss to Minnesota. Amendola needs to be locked into title-week PPR lineups as a WR2. He's a strong WR3 in standard. ... Chris Givens (1-22) and Brandon Gibson (6-76) both played fewer snaps with Amendola back against the Vikings and neither is on the Week 16 fantasy radar. ... Rookie Brian Quick played a season-high 18 snaps in Week 15, catching three balls for 12 yards and a score. He's a name for keeper leaguers to track. "I'm anxious to see these final couple of games and next season," NFL Films' Greg Cosell said of Quick this week. "I think he's more physically gifted with his size and movement than bothJustin Blackmon and Michael Floyd." ... In addition to struggling in pass coverage, the Buccaneers rush the passer poorly (29th in sacks). Sam Bradford should have a mostly clean pocket on Sunday and is an attractive two-quarterback league start.

Score Prediction: Bucs 23, Rams 17

Tennessee @ Green Bay

"We're talking about Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Adrian Peterson being the only candidates for MVP," ESPN's Trent Dilfer said on Monday Night Countdown this week. "What about this guy? 32 touchdowns. 8 interceptions. He's dragged a team to 10-4. ... I continually am blown away by how good Aaron Rodgers is, and how easy he makes it look." Consistency has been an issue for Rodgers this year, but he bounced back from a slight four-game funk to drop 291 yards and three touchdowns on the Bears in last week's win at Soldier Field. Rodgers returns home this week to face Tennessee's No. 19 pass defense, a unit whose ranking is skewed a bit by Mark Sanchez's field fart on Monday Night Football. The Titans have allowed the fourth most passing touchdowns and third highest completion rate in the league to opposing quarterbacks. Rodgers will stay hot in Week 16. ... James Jones hogged all the touchdowns, but Randall Cobb did the open-field damage at Chicago with 115 yards on six receptions. Cobb hasn't found pay dirt in a month, which means he's due. He's a top-12 receiver play in title week, back in Title Town. ... As alluded to in this space several times before, Jones seems to produce whenever we expect him not to, and fail to produce whenever we expect him to score big. Last week's three touchdowns change little. He's a boom-or-bust WR3. ... Greg Jennings hasn't just been a disappointment since returning from injury three games ago. He's been a disappointment all year. Jennings has played in six games this season, and he's failed to top 50 yards in all six. He's a low-end WR3.

Regardless of how many touchdowns and fantasy points the Titans have allowed to tight ends, it's hard to imagine relying on Jermichael Finley in fantasy's Super Bowl week. Finley is the No. 23 tight end scorer and has found pay dirt once in his last 13 games. ... Tennessee's defense ranks 25th against the run and offers up a favorable weekly matchup for ground games. The Packers, unfortunately, are unlikely to capitalize to the extent that one of their running backs has a big fantasy day. Green Bay's backfield timeshare has expanded to four members, with Alex Green (13-35 stat line last week) struggling in the lead role, late-season street free agent pickup Ryan Grant (8-32) seeing increased opportunities, DuJuan Harris (5-27) third in line, and John Kuhn (2-5) handling most short-yardage work. In a favorable matchup, it's certainly conceivable that the Packers could have collective rushing success against the Titans. It's much less conceivable that Green, Grant, Harris, or Kuhn would pay dividends as a Week 16 fantasy starter. Green may not even play due to a concussion, which would leave Grant, Harris, and Kuhn to split the load. Avoid.

Friday Update: Green missed his third straight practice on Friday. The Packers haven't given up hope of Green playing against the Titans, however, and are listing him as questionable with his availability pending a neurological test on Saturday. The Green Bay backfield is not worth Week 16 fantasy investment.

Jake Locker's disappointing season continued in last Monday's "win" over the Jets. Locker has an alarming tendency to play too fast under the slightest hint of pressure, and his college accuracy problems have not gone away. Green Bay's defense is exponentially better with Clay Matthews in the lineup, and he's now returning from a six-tackle, two-sack demolition of the Bears. Locker can be written off in standard settings. He's a dicey two-QB league play. ... Locker's target distribution since Dowell Loggains replaced Chris Palmer as Titans offensive coordinator three games ago: Kendall Wright 23, Kenny Britt 20, Nate Washington 19, Jared Cook 15, Chris Johnson 9, Michael Preston 4. ... Wright cracked a rib against the Jets and probably won't play in the season's final two weeks. Since Wright has led Tennessee in targets, his absence is likely to have a significant fantasy fallout. In a game where the Titans figure to play from behind and Locker rack up pass attempts, Britt is an intriguing WR3 with upside despite last week's one-catch, seven-yard clunker against Antonio Cromartie. Britt projects as the primary box-score beneficiary of Wright's injury.

Washington has played 85 percent of Tennessee's offensive snaps over the past three weeks, so the notion that he might see more playing time due to Wright's absence is not especially realistic. Washington might see a few more targets per game, but he is an inferior receiver to Britt and not an attractive WR3 at this point in the year. ... Green Bay's defense ranks a middling 14th against the run and surrenders a generous 4.46 yards per carry. So on paper, Chris Johnson has a plus Week 16 matchup. The fact that Johnson is so reliant on long runs makes him a boom-or-bust gamble, but at the same time his game-breaking potential is hard to bench. Start him as an RB2.

Score Prediction: Packers 30, Titans 17

San Diego @ NY Jets

Fantasy owners hoping Danario Alexander might avoid Antonio Cromartie's shadow coverage in Week 16 had their hopes dashed Tuesday when Malcom Floyd (ankle) hit year-ending injured reserve. Coming off a catch-less game where coach Ron Rivera admitted Carolina's defense changed coverages to "focus" on taking Alexander away from Philip Rivers, DX would be a very poor fantasy title-week play. Here are the final stat lines of the last four wide receivers covered by Cromartie: Kenny Britt 1-7, Justin Blackmon 6-57, Larry Fitzgerald 1-23, Brandon Lloyd 3-26. ... The Chargers figure to choose between Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal, and Micheal Spurlock to fill the hole left by Floyd's loss. It's an obvious fantasy situation to avoid. ... The Jets rank second in the NFL in pass defense and have answers for just about everything San Diego is capable of doing in the passing game. No. 21 overall fantasy quarterback Rivers is a bottom-barrel QB2.

The one San Diego pass catcher who might rise above is Antonio Gates, mostly by process of elimination. Gates found pay dirt in Week 15 garbage time and has been the NFL's third most heavily targeted tight end over the past three weeks. Despite disappointing production all year, NFL Films tape maven Greg Cosell suggested this week that Gates hasn't lost a step. "It's not as if he can't move or can't run," Cosell said. "I think he actually runs pretty good. But there's just no continuity (to the Chargers' offense)." ... Jackie Battle and Curtis Brinkley have a seemingly attractive on-paper matchup versus the Jets' No. 29 run defense, but they're more likely to prove fool's gold. Battle and Brinkley will encounter the same inept Chargers offense that contributed to Ryan Mathews' ineffectiveness, and there are no guarantees on Week 16 workload distribution. Battle is an early-down thumper and the favorite for goal-line carries, which could be meaningful in the unlikely event San Diego's offense enters scoring position. Brinkley is a passing-down specialist lacking inside running chops. Battle would be the preferred option in standard fantasy leagues, but true championship contenders will ignore the Chargers' backfield this week.

Friday Update: Battle and Brinkley already both had the look of poor flex options in finals week, and Ronnie Brown's return to full practice on Friday is likely to render San Diego's backfield a three-headed committee. Brown is listed as probable and will play. None of the three Chargers runners is likely to reach 15 touches against the Jets.

"It's chuck-and-duck offense," is how ESPN's Trent Dilfer described Jets OC Tony Sparano's unit following last Monday night's embarrassing loss at Tennessee. "Pick and stick. It's, in practice this guy was open, so I'm gonna drop back and throw it up, and hopefully he'll catch it. It's just a form of spitball offense and it doesn't work in the National Football League." While I thought that was an interesting quote from Dilfer, I won't waste two minutes of your life explaining why you should avoid the Jets' entire passing game in fantasy championship week. Just look elsewhere. ... The combined record of the teams New York has "won" against this season is 33-50-1, "good" for a .399 winning percentage. Along with Andrew Luck's QB rating, the Jets' six "wins" are one of the most misleading stats of the 2012 NFL season. ... The Shonn Greene-Bilal Powell timeshare will square off Sunday with a San Diego defense that ranks seventh against the run and permits just 3.84 yards per carry. Neither Greene (13-68) nor Powell (6-28) paid dividends as a flex play in Nashville, and it's well within the realm of possibility that neither will against a much better Chargers defense. No Jets skill-position player is a good title-week fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Chargers 17, Jets 6

4:05PM ET Game

Cleveland @ Denver

I've seen some fantasy title-week concern regarding Joe Haden's potential shadow coverage of Demaryius Thomas. I tend to believe it won't even happen. Thomas runs most of his routes against right cornerbacks, and the Browns have left 33-year-old RCB Sheldon Brown on that side of the field since early in the season because he's held up relatively well. Haden has stayed home at left corner. If that defensive design sticks -- and here's guessing it will -- Eric Decker will see more of Haden while Thomas draws Brown. ... All that said, Brown got absolutely torched by Kirk Cousins' Redskins last week. Leonard Hankerson was his responsibility on a 54-yard touchdown bomb, and Josh Morgan beat Brown for a 32-yard fourth-quarter gain. Pierre Garcon also racked up several underneath catches in Brown's coverage. I like Thomas to lead the Broncos in Week 16 receiving as a hero of fantasy championship week. ... The Haden factor should give Decker owners some pause, despite a two-week hot run. Peyton Manning loves to pick apart favorable matchups and will likely put a bulls-eye on the Brown-Thomas assignment, targeting it relentlessly. Expect the box-score pendulum to swing back to Thomas this week, and consider Decker a WR3.

Cleveland's defense is falling apart just in time for a date with Manning, who's the No. 6 fantasy quarterback through 14 games. One of the top safeties in football, Browns SS T.J. Ward was lost for the season in Week 15 due to a bone bruise on his knee. Ward often mirrors tight ends in coverage, so his absence may translate to more openings for the Jacob Tamme-Joel Dreessen combo. Like Brandon Stokley, Tamme and Dreessen are not viable Week 16 fantasy plays, but any uptick in production from Denver's role-playing pass catchers would stand to benefit their quarterback. ... Ward's loss may be felt even more against the run, where Pro Football Focus grades him as the NFL's premier run-support safety, and by a significant margin. Even with Ward in the lineup, Raiders, Redskins, and Chiefs halfbacks have tagged Cleveland for 348 yards and four TDs on 69 carries (5.04 YPC) over the past three games. It also stands to reason that Denver could build a big lead at home versus a vastly inferior Browns team, translating to a high volume of Broncos rushing attempts for a fourth straight week. Excelling in the old Joseph Addai role, Knowshon Moreno has graduated to high-end RB2 status while proving a late-year fantasy stud.

With Brandon Weeden plateauing after improving for most of the season's first half, Cleveland will have trouble moving the ball through the air against Von Miller and Champ Bailey's top-eight pass defense. Weeden remains a one-read passer who locks onto the first receiver in his progressions, leading to head-scratching throws and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio over his last four games. "My big concern with Weeden -- and I've watched every game -- is he's a little slow-twitch," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed this week. "He's not particularly light on his feet or quick in the pocket. He's a little stiff. He needs to quicken everything he does. ... I'm not sure the slow-twitch can really be worked on. And they're gonna have a very interesting offseason decision to make with their new management group." ... Bailey can render Josh Gordon a non-factor, and Cleveland's other pass catchers exhibit no big-play ability. It's going to be a long day for the Browns. ... Greg Little won't have an easy go of it, either, in Week 16. The Browns use Little similarly to Anquan Boldin in Baltimore, moving him inside on passing downs. Broncos RCB/slot corner Chris Harris held Boldin catch-less last week, on six targets. Little is not on the championship week fantasy radar.

Although the Broncos surrender the most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, Ben Watson essentially plays in a three-tight end weave with Jordan Cameron and Alex Smith. Cameron, in fact, led the production-sapping committee with three receptions for 34 yards last week. It's a situation to avoid in fantasy title games. ... No. 6 overall fantasy running back Trent Richardson is the lone Browns skill-position player worth starting confidently against the Broncos. Cleveland playcaller Pat Shurmur figures to reemphasize featuring Richardson after abandoning the run in the second half of last week's loss to Washington, giving his rookie runner just two carries in the final two quarters. While Richardson has not demonstrated the explosive, game-breaking ability evident on his college tape this season, he's always a strong bet for touchdowns. Richardson has scored six times over the past four weeks. He's averaging 23 touches per game during that span.

Friday Update: Cameron will miss Sunday's game with a concussion after failing to pass the NFL's protocol testing this week. Watson should receive increased pass-catching opportunities against a Denver defense that's been leaky in tight-end coverage. While Tony Scheffler and Dennis Pitta would be superior options, Watson is at least worth a desperation look as a low-end TE1.

Score Prediction: Broncos 27, Browns 13

4:25PM ET Games

Chicago @ Arizona

As you probably know by now, the Bears' sieve-like offensive line has caught up with them down the season's stretch. Primarily due to injuries and an early-season turnover rate that was always unsustainable, the defense is no longer effective enough to carry the team. The Bears have lost five of their last six, a span during which Jay Cutler has posted a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio while missing one game with a concussion. And facing the Cardinals' defense in Arizona will be no Week 16 cakewalk. The Cards play top-four pass defense, rank top-seven in sacks, and no team in football has more interceptions through 14 games. Cutler won't get a break from DC Ray Horton's blitz-heavy group. He's a low-end QB2. ... A week removed from serving up 10 catches for 121 yards to Calvin Johnson despite "box and one" and "punt gunner" coverage to give him help, Patrick Peterson is telling folks he's the best cornerback in the league. The Bears' passing game probably won't have enough overall success Sunday to support more than one fantasy-viable pass catcher, but Brandon Marshall ought to still get "his." Marshall ranks first in fantasy receiver scoring and third in the NFL in targets, and he'll eat Peterson alive whenever he gets off-coverage cushion.

Alshon Jeffery remains a promising prospect, but he's cleared 50 yards in one of his last seven games and was held catch-less last week by Packers CB Sam Shields, who isn't generally regarded as a shutdown corner. Earl Bennett's (concussion) return may also cut into Jeffery's snaps. Marshall is the only Chicago receiver on the Week 16 fantasy radar. ... Horton's defense is most vulnerable on the ground, where the Cards rank 28th against the run and provide Matt Forte with a strong title-week fantasy matchup. Although Forte was stuffed repeatedly at the goal line last week, he's racked up at least 110 total yards and/or a touchdown in three consecutive games and will continue to be leaned on heavily with Michael Bush (ribs) lost to injured reserve. Bears OC Mike Tice did talk up Kahlil Bell as a potential Week 16 short-yardage alternative, but Forte should have no trouble exceeding 20 touches versus a vulnerable defense. Forte offers upside in RB2 slots this week. The Bears have not been playing postseason-caliber football for the last month and a half, but they still should mostly control this game against a brutal Cardinals team.

Full disclosure: Desperation has forced me into starting Beanie Wells in one of my fantasy Super Bowls. I don't feel the least bit good about it, but Wells' matchup is favorable against a Bears run defense that's gone in the tank since midseason, and I am slightly encouraged by Ryan Lindley's Week 15 best game of the year. All of that is incredibly glass-half-full analysis, of course; I hope you aren't forced to do the same. Although he's scored five fluky touchdowns the past four weeks, Wells has run unimpressively all season (2.75 YPC) and plays behind an offensive line that allows no margin for error. View him as a low-end flex option. ... Larry Fitzgerald can be expected to draw Charles Tillman's shadow coverage all game while facing the Bears' top-six pass defense. Here are Fitz's stat lines in Lindley's 2012 starts: 3-31, 1-23, 4-22. Counting on Fitzgerald in title week would take quite the leap of faith. ... Andre Roberts, Rob Housler, Early Doucet, Michael Floyd, and La'Rod Stephens-Howling all should've been dropped from fantasy rosters sometime ago. ... Although Chicago is racking up losses and Arizona is coming off a win, let's not forget that Lindley plays behind the NFL's swiss-cheesiest offensive line and the Bears rank top-ten in sacks, interceptions, and forced fumbles. Chicago's defense is a recommended play in Week 16.

Score Prediction: Bears 20, Cardinals 10

NY Giants @ Baltimore

Although it took place due primarily to necessity, the biggest change in Baltimore's offense during Jim Caldwell's Week 15 playcalling debut was Dennis Pitta's featured receiver role. With Champ Bailey shutting down Torrey Smith (1-14) before Smith's concussion and Broncos slot CB Chris Harris putting Anquan Boldin (0-0) on ice, Pitta delivered a career-best stat line of 7-125-2 against Denver, pacing the Ravens with ten targets. Pitta has a Week 16 matchup to stay hot versus a Giants defense that surrenders the fourth most receptions and fourth most yardage to tight ends. ... Pitta has quietly been on a tear for the past month, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games. Joe Flacco's target distribution during that span: Boldin 29, Pitta 28, Smith 27, Ray Rice 22, Jacoby Jones 15, Tandon Doss 9. ... Boldin has a favorable title-week matchup versus Giants struggling rookie corner Jayron Hosley, on whom opponents are picking relentlessly. Hosley plays RCB on base defensive downs and covers the slot in the nickel. In Week 15, Hosley gave up Julio Jones' 40-yard touchdown and most of slot receiver Harry Douglas' season-high 83 yards. Boldin is hard to love coming off the goose egg, but his Week 16 recipe is ripe for a bounce-back game.

Smith's (concussion) Week 16 status is questionable, even if his return to a limited practice on Thursday was a positive sign. If Smith is active -- and we may not have a good read until late Sunday afternoon -- he'll be a boom-or-bust WR3 against a Giants defense with shaky corners whom Smith is capable of running by. Smith hasn't made an end-zone trip since early November, failing to clear 40 yards in four of his last five games. ... If Smith does not play, inconsistent underachiever Jacoby Jones would draw the start. ... Flacco will face off with the Giants' No. 28 pass defense Sunday in a plus matchup on paper. Although Flacco's on-field performance has left much to be desired recently, he typically plays quality football at home and is a high-end QB2. ... Rookie change-of-pace back Bernard Pierce's concussion will sideline him for Week 16, which should stabilize Rice's workload against New York's 22nd-ranked run defense. Pierce has siphoned over eight touches a game over the past month. Rice's matchup is attractive, and he is a candidate for 25-plus touches against the G-Men. Start him as a top-six fantasy back in title week.

Friday Update: Although Smith is indeed listed as questionable on the injury report, he practiced on a limited basis on both Thursday and Friday and the Baltimore Sun reported he's likely to play. Smith's downside is apparent in his recent box scores, but he offers an enticing amount of upside against a weak Giants secondary. I'd struggle to keep him out of a WR3 slot.

Eli Manning appeared to turn his season around in a Week 14 four-touchdown game against the Saints. He went right back in the tank last week in Atlanta, completing 52 percent of 25 attempts with no touchdowns and two picks. "His fundamentals in the pocket have become very erratic and sloppy," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed. "... This offense is struggling. Eli has not played well. He's had a very inconsistent season." Not helping matters is the fact that Hakeem Nicks (knee) can no longer create downfield separation, allowing defenses to focus attention on Victor Cruz. While Baltimore's pass defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, it's permitted the fewest touchdown passes in football and has quietly played better of late. Eli is not a recommended starter in the fantasy finals. ... Manning's target distribution since the Week 11 bye: Nicks 36, Cruz 28, Martellus Bennett 20, Domenik Hixon 10, Ahmad Bradshaw 6, David Wilson and Rueben Randle 4. ... Although the targets continue to be there, Nicks' diminishing on-field effectiveness caught up to him against the Falcons and he was held to 40 scoreless yards on three catches. Downgrade Nicks to dicey WR3 at Baltimore. Nicks' production has become very Eli-dependent late in the year.

The increased defensive focus has affected Cruz's consistency in the season's second half, but he's still the premier wide receiver play on either side of Giants-Ravens. Set to square off with special teamer-turned-LCB/slot corner Corey Graham on a heavy majority of Sunday's snaps, Cruz should not have trouble leading New York in receiving. ... The fact that Bennett is third in line for targets in a struggling passing attack bodes poorly for his outlook this week, as does the fact that Baltimore's defense has limited tight ends to the fifth fewest fantasy points in football. ... The Giants are likely to have more running than passing success against the Ravens, who field the NFL's No. 26 rush defense and got blown up for 167 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns by Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman, and Jacob Hester last week. Unfortunately, New York's backfield lacks clarity with Ahmad Bradshaw (knee) missing practice all week and David Wilson (12-55) coming off a disappointing NFL starting debut, even if his production was torpedoed more by game flow and a huge early deficit than his own performance. If Bradshaw does play, consider him a back-end RB2. If Bradshaw doesn't, Wilson will remain an enticing flex option with god-given talent to bounce back big in what figures to be a more competitive affair.

Friday Update: Bradshaw returned to Friday's practice on a limited basis. He is listed as questionable, but is expected to play. The New York beat writers anticipate a "hot-hand" approach in the Giants' backfield. Start G-Men running backs in title week at your own risk.

Score Prediction: Giants 23, Ravens 20

Sunday Night Football

San Francisco @ Seattle

49ers-Seahawks is a difficult game to try to project with confidence. Both offenses have come so far since their Week 7 meeting, which had a 13-6 result. Quarterback play on each side has improved dramatically, and the offenses have been opened up. But Seattle and San Francisco's team strengths remain on the other side of the ball, and big-time defenses tend to shut down good offenses. The Vegas experts have an over-under of 39 on Niners-Hawks, as one of just three Week 16 games with point projections of fewer than 40. I tend to agree that this will be a relatively low-scoring affair, but it could go either way and I really like the over. ... One area in which the 49ers may have an offensive edge on the Seahawks' defense is an ability to move opponents in the run game. The Niners' power-blocking O-Line cleared lanes consistently in the Week 7 matchup, as Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter combined for 162 yards on 25 carries (6.48 YPC). The Seahawks' run defense really hasn't been the same since. Seattle quietly serves up the eighth highest yards-per-carry average (4.51) in the NFL, supporting Gore's matchup as favorable. Coach Jim Harbaugh won't be afraid to attack the Seahawks with the run, so start Gore as a low-end RB1 in Week 16. ... LaMichael James has replaced Hunter in the change-of-pace role, although the explosive rookie's biggest impact has been in the return game. James doesn't get the ball enough on offense to be a viable flex play.

Through five starts, Colin Kaepernick has completed 85-of-128 throws (66.4 percent) for 1,083 yards (8.46 YPA), and a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He's added two more touchdowns on the ground and averaged 6.31 yards per carry. Kaepernick is the No. 5 overall fantasy quarterback over that span, behind only Newton, Brady, Romo, and Brees. Even in a tough matchup with Seattle's top-three pass defense, Kaepernick has earned a back-end QB1 start with obvious upside for more. In last Sunday's win over the Patriots, Harbaugh unleashed the most aggressive game plan of his 49ers coaching tenure. It worked, and I think that bodes well for Kaepernick's Week 16 box-score outlook. ... What'd bode even better for top receiver Michael Crabtree would be Seahawks top CB Richard Sherman's absence from this game. Sherman's four-game PEDs suspension appeal will be heard on Friday. Fantasy owners needing tiebreakers for lineup decisions on Kaepernick and Crabtree can use the outcome of Sherman's appeal to lean one way or another. If Sherman does not play Sunday night, Seattle will be minus both starting corners. RCB Brandon Browner has two weeks left on his own four-game ban. ... Harbaugh tried to involve Vernon Davis more against New England, as Kaepernick targeted him on two bomb attempts. Davis secured neither, finishing with one catch for ten yards. Davis was held catch-less in the aforementioned Week 7 game. Seattle is 24th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so this isn't the greatest matchup.

Friday Update: ESPN reported Friday that the Seahawks do not expect to learn the results of Sherman's appeal until next week at the soonest. So he is expected to play in Sunday night's game. Sherman is a top-five cover corner, so his availability removes some luster from both Kaepernick and Crabtree's matchups. Kaepernick should still be viewed as a viable low-end QB1, perhaps with a slightly lower ceiling. Crabtree can expect Sherman to shadow him all over the field, and is a WR3.

One intangible factor that may adversely affect San Francisco in Sunday night's game is fatigue. The 49ers' defense was on the field for a whopping 94 snaps against the Pats, as New England ran its speed-no-huddle offense for the entirety of the second half. For perspective, an average snap total is about 65. 49ers defenders might lose their legs a bit as this game wears on. In his last two meetings with the Niners, Marshawn Lynch has racked up 210 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries (5.25 YPC). So despite San Francisco's top-three run defense ranking, matchup-proof Lynch should be locked in as an RB1. ... One injury situation to monitor for Seattle's offense is 49ers RE Justin Smith's elbow ailment. Smith didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and ultra-reliable 49ers beat writer Matt Maiocco wrote this week that there is "serious doubt" about Smith's availability for Sunday night. Justin is a critical part of the Niners' defense, as he plays adjacent NFL sacks leader Aldon Smith on passing downs and holds commands double teams, often freeing Aldon to rush the passer unblocked on inside stunts. With Justin on the sideline during the second half of the Patriots game, San Francisco's pass rush evaporated.

Russell Wilson's target distribution since Seattle's Week 11 bye: Sidney Rice 22, Golden Tate 18, Doug Baldwin 16, Zach Miller 15, Lynch and Anthony McCoy 8. ... With physical press coverage on the perimeter, the Niners' top-five pass defense put breaks on Rice (2-32) and Tate (0-0) in the Week 7 matchup. Ben Obomanu, who has since hit injured reserve, led Seattle in receiving (3-50). Wilson has gotten markedly better since midseason, but the Seahawks still seem unlikely to successfully generate consistent ball movement through the air against the Niners' defense, even if Justin Smith misses the game. Seattle's best means of sustaining offense will be on the ground. Consider Wilson a high-end QB2, but he should probably be avoided in standard-league lineups. Rice will be an iffy WR3. Tate, Miller, Baldwin, and McCoy should not be started in title week.

Friday Update: Rice (knee) was limited in Friday's practice and is listed as questionable on the injury report. Coach Pete Carroll expects him to play against the 49ers, but Rice should probably be left on fantasy benches with shaky health in a very difficult matchup. If Rice is less than 100 percent -- and the signs suggest he will be -- it'll also be concerning for Russell Wilson.