20 Questions For The Mobile Industry In 2013

Smartphones now outsell PCs by more than 2 to 1, and it looks like the 'Platform Wars' may be almost over, with iOS and Android between them having around 90% market share. Yet one of the fascinating things about the industry right now is just how many companies are in serious trouble, and how many things are totally uncertain. We could easily see a major handset brand get bought or just disappear in the next 12 months, but every part of the industry faces fundamental and often existential questions. Here are 20.

Will Apple make a cheaper phone, moving below $600 new? How would it do it? (How) would it maintain segmentation? Would that be a $300 phone? A $100 phone?

Will China Mobile offer the iPhone to its 700m users (now that it is technically possible) or, like DoCoMo, refuse it?

Will Apple's dominance of the high-end ($600+) phone market continue, or will Android/Windows Phone/RIM improve to the point they can take it on head-to-head?

Will Microsoft make its own phone? Will Windows Phone finally get any traction?

What happens to Nokia if Windows Phone gets no traction? Does Microsoft buy it?

What is the future of Nokia's featurephone business? How big will Asha be?

How much longer will RIM survive? Who will buy the wreckage? Or will the 'Do what Nokia did, but two years later' strategy actually work?

What happens to the struggling Android OEMs, HTC, LG Mobile and Sony Mobile? Is there an M&A roll-up here?

What is Google going to do with the Motorola mobile business? Shut it down? Break it up? Let it carry on running into the ground? Or give up on the firewall?

Is Google's whole approach to Android sustainable? Will it move more towards Nexus handsets, or does that remain just a low-volume showcase?

Does Google really care about the fragmentation, weak monetization and other issues with the Android ecosystem?

What is Google's exit strategy from the 'sell tablets at cost' model? Will it drive the other OEMs out of the market? Would that matter?

Is Samsung's leading position in Android sustainable? Does it depend on the company maintaining the current $13.7 bn (sic) run-rate marketing budget?

Will Samsung remain committed to Android, refocus on Windows Phone, fork Android or all of the above?

Will the Chinese move up-market and become major consumer players in the West?

Will the Chinese try to buy a non-Chinese OEM? RIM? HTC? Would they be allowed to?

What is the future of the subsidy model? Will the tentative moves in Spain and (in the USA) from T-Mobile last or spread? Will operators (and consumers) move decisively away from them? What would have to change to do that?

Will Amazon make a 'Fire Phone', forking Android in phones as it has in tablets, yet piggybacking on the existing app ecosystem? What would it gain?

Will Intel become relevant in mobile? Would it do a big acquisition? Panic and buy an OEM?

There are now at least a dozen social mobile social networks with over 100m users. How will they interact with Facebook and the mobile operators? Which will go global and which will get bought?

I have pretty considered opinions about most of these - but there are no clear answers to any of them. Massive amounts could change, quite easily, in the next year to two. In particular, it seems very clear that at least one of RIM, Nokia, LG Mobile, Sony Mobile and HTC will be bought, merged, disappear or radically change strategy. But my underlying point is that all of these questions are quite open - there are multiple plausible outcomes - and yet any of them has the potential radically to change the whole mobile environment.