Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Despite many pundits painting
his campaign as a sideshow earlier this summer, Donald Trump has managed to
stay atop the pack of Republican hopefuls in the race for the 2016 Republican
nomination. However, ahead of Wednesday night’s third Republican debate,
recently released polls, both nationally and in some important primary races,
seem to indicate a Donald Trump slide. Dr. Ben Carson, who has had consistently
high favorability ratings among Republican voters since he announced his
candidacy in May, looks to be the prime beneficiary of Trump’s decline. Has
Carson overtaken Trump as the favorite? If so, why has he been able to despite
a lack of any recent major stumbles for Trump? As always, we need only to look
at the numbers to find out.

In Monmouth University’s August Poll of Republicans in
the crucial first caucus state of Iowa, the two political outsiders were locked
in a dead heat at 23%. In Monmouth’s poll taken this past week, Carson
(32%) has begun to pull away from Trump (18%). Similar polling in the month of
October in Iowa can be seen from Quinnipiac (Carson 28% to Trump 20%) and Bloomberg/Des Moines Register (Carson 28% to Trump 19%).
Trump led Carson by 6 points and 5 points respectively, in each outlet’s late
August/early September Iowa polling of Republican voters.

Unfortunately for Trump, the
downward trend continues when we look at recent national polling. A CBS/New York Times Poll, taken October 21-25, shows
Carson (26%) now leading Trump (22%) nationally for the first time since Trump
entered the fray in June. In a previous CBS News/New York Times national poll, taken September
9-13, Trump led Carson 27% to 23%. While Carson has not pulled ahead in any
other major national poll, he continues to close the gap with Trump. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken October 15-18 had
Trump (25%) holding on to a small lead over Carson (22%). CNN/ORC polling done October 14-17 show
Trump clinging to a 5 point lead over Carson after leading him by 10 points in
their September poll. Additionally, polls released this week in both Texas and
North Carolina tell a similar story. A KTVT-CBS 11/Dixie Strategies
Poll in Texas,
taken October 23-24, shows Carson with a slim 1 point lead over Trump, while a Public Policy Polling survey taken October 23-25 in
North Carolina has Carson leading Trump 23% to 11%.

So, why the sudden shuffle at
the top of the GOP totem pole? Simply put, voters may simply be tiring of The Donald
Show. After his announcement in June, to the surprise of many pollsters and
pundits alike, Trump’s low favorability rocketed up as he took on the role of
frontrunner while drawing huge crowds everywhere he went. However, after his
performance in the second GOP debate in September, those ratings flattened and
began to trend downward. Conversely, Dr. Ben Carson’s favorability ratings among
Republican voters have consistently been at or near the top when compared to
his fellow candidates, both nationally and in the early voting states. In fact,
in a Loras College Iowa poll taken just this past week, when
asked if they would absolutely not vote for Dr. Ben Carson, only 3% of Iowa
Republicans would refuse to vote for the famed neurosurgeon, while 28% said
they would absolutely not vote for Trump.

Trump is clearly no longer
running away with the 2016 Republican nomination. However, besides his
consistently high marks with Republican voters, why has Carson been the one to
pose a significant challenge to the frontrunner? Essentially, Republican voters
are still clamoring for an outsider candidate who has not been sullied by the
partisan stalemate in Washington. A recent Associated Press-GfK poll, taken October 15-19, made
this preference very clear. An overwhelming number of Republican voters (77%)
prefer an outsider candidate who will change how things are done, instead of a
candidate with Washington experience (22%). Similarly, they prefer a candidate
with private-sector leadership (76%) over someone with experience holding
political office (22%). With Carly Fiorina failing to gain any real momentum
after her impressive debate performances, that leaves Trump, who Republican voters
are clearly tiring of, and Dr. Ben Carson, who in the same AP-GfK poll pulled
the highest favorability rating of any GOP candidate (65% favorable to just 13%
unfavorable).

Trump recently said, “I don’t
quite get it,” when he was asked about these troubling polls. Unfortunately for
The Donald, unless he delivers a quality performance at Wednesday’s third GOP
debate, he really might not get it.

Monday, October 19, 2015

by Anthony AlaimoMonmouth University Poll Institute graduate assistantThe loudest
applause during last week’s Democratic debate occurred when Senator Bernie
Sanders actually came to Hillary Clinton’s defense when she was asked about her
handling of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State.
Sanders, instead of attacking Clinton on an issue that Republicans and the
media have turned into a point of contention in her campaign, warned the Las
Vegas audience that he was about to say something that may not be great
politics.Shockingly, at
least at first glance, Sanders said he agreed with Secretary Clinton and
complained that the American people were sick and tired of hearing about her
damn emails. What could Sanders have been thinking? Why wouldn’t he attack his
main rival on an issue that has been covered so intensely by the media? Was
this a lapse in judgement or was it premeditated?

Millions of
viewers, many of whom have only been casual followers of this prolonged 2016
race, as well as some die-hard political junkies, probably had similar
questions after Sanders seemingly missed an opportunity to distinguish himself
from his rival.

The obvious
explanation is Sanders was trying to make himself look above the fray as a
candidate that cares more about the issues than about piling on. But we can find a
political answer in the polls.

While the
Republican Congress and numerous 2016 presidential candidates continue to
attack Clinton about her alleged improper use of a private email server, Democratic
voters have been largely consistent when pollsters have asked them about her
emails. They are just not all that concerned about it.

A recent CBS News
poll, taken October 4-8, examined Democratic voter opinion regarding Clinton’s
email server and reflected similar polling trends over the past few months.
When asked if it was appropriate for Secretary Clinton to exclusively use a
personal email address and server for work, 48% of Democrats viewed her actions
as inappropriate, while 41% viewed them as appropriate. But this is nowhere
near as negative as when the same question was asked of Republican voters – 93%
said her actions were not appropriate, while only 7% said they were
appropriate.

When delving deeper
into the issue, though, 62% of Democratic voters said they are satisfied with Clinton’s
explanation of why she used a private email server, while only 28% were dissatisfied. On
the question of whether the email controversy would be important to their 2016
vote, only 14% of Democratic voters said the email server issue would be very
important and just another 15% said it is somewhat important. A combined 70%
said the email issue would not be important when they cast their votes.

Finally, a
post-debate poll from Monmouth University found that 69% of Americans –
including 79% of Democrats – agree with Sanders. They are tired of hearing about the
emails. Only 14% of Democrats would like
the media to continue to cover this issue.

Looking into the poll
numbers, it seems clear that Sanders’ phone-a-friend moment wasn’t so much a
gaffe as it was a calculated, pre-planned line that he was probably eagerly
waiting to deliver. And, it worked. Sanders looked chivalrous, while knowing it
would not be politically smart to launch a useless attack on an issue that has
failed to gain traction among the Democratic base. In fact, the Sanders campaign sent out a
fundraising email based on his “damn emails” statement as they immediately looked
to capitalize on the publicity from the best line of the night.

However, looking
even deeper into the numbers and ahead to November 2016, the Clinton campaign
cannot afford to lose sight of the fact that independents do not share Democrats’
view. In that same CBS News poll, 72% of independent voters said Clinton’s use
of a private email server was not appropriate and 62% said they were mostly dissatisfied
with Clinton’s explanation. Unfortunately for Secretary Clinton, there will be
no Sanders lifeline next year.