Comments on: Quick Dozier signing reactionhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622
"... the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.” -- Earl WeaverThu, 21 Mar 2019 19:15:37 +0000hourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.4.18By: KWhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108334
Mon, 14 Jan 2019 15:23:18 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108334The players really screwed themselves with the last CBA and effectively allowed the owners to legally collude against them. At the same time, I don’t think it’s helping the players in general to have a few seeking longer and longer contracts. Admittedly, 10-year contracts date back to A-Rod, but they didn’t make much sense then and they sure don’t now, even for 26-year-olds. A contract of around 4/$140M would make sense for Bryce. A contract extending that AAV of $35M over 10 years, every cent guaranteed, makes no sense for any team in any sport, even for a consistent stud like Trout. Such contracts only make sense in the NFL, where they’re front-loaded and not fully guaranteed (except for Kirk Cousins — oops!).

Unlike some here, I wouldn’t mind having Bryce back with the Nats. What I would mind is a long contract that might hamstring the roster for a decade. I do find it promising that Rizzo has already spent right up to the tax line before there’s any decision on Harper, but will the Lerners be willing to go over the line year after year? Would they also give a tax-busting deal to extend Rendon? To me, a deal on Harper only makes sense if they have also still have the latitude to extend Rendon. And that’s a massive “if.”

That said, an extension for Rendon would not start until his age-31 season and likely would be for at least six years. Oh boy. Does that make sense? I don’t know. There’s no doubt that you’d mostly be paying for “decline” years.

]]>By: Mark Lhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108326
Mon, 14 Jan 2019 14:04:26 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108326Agree with KK. Harper’s 1-2 years away from being a strictly 1B/DH type. Oh wait, the Phillies are in the National League.
]]>By: Karl Kolchakhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108249
Mon, 14 Jan 2019 00:10:22 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108249Crossing my fingers on Harper going to the Phillies–that should make them underachievers for years to come!
]]>By: Wallyhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108238
Sun, 13 Jan 2019 21:20:11 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108238With Bryce, we won’t know what he’s doing until he decides. I’m not paying attention to the intrigue. Although I have to say, wouldn’t it be pretty cool to see both of them on the Phillies? Heresy, I know.

I don’t even know that I care that much one way or the other, but it seems like a shame that these guys aren’t getting more interest. I don’t think it’s collusion, but the way the game has shifted …. let’s just say that I won’t be shocked if there is a work stoppage at the next CBA. If I’m the players, i’d want FA to come two years earlier, or maybe at a fixed age like 28, and/or arbitration after 1 year. Owners aren’t going to agree so I see big problems, but this is too one sided.

I think the Nats are done making moves, unless it Harp or they make a trade to clear some room. I think they are maxed out on payroll. I’m ok with that, you can’t fix everything and this is a good team as is. I know I sound like a broken record, but it has more risk than people appreciate but should be good. The problem is so are most of the other teams they’ll play, so there only a few easy wins. So they could play well and be good this year but still not win the division. Should be a fun year for baseball.

]]>By: KWhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108232
Sun, 13 Jan 2019 20:01:09 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108232Oh, and we were right — Matt Reynolds DFA’d to clear room for Dozier. There should be a good chance that Reynolds will clear waivers and accept assignment.
]]>By: KWhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108231
Sun, 13 Jan 2019 19:58:57 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108231What’s left to do? The biggest question is whether the Nats trust Solis or want another lefty to replace him, since Solis struggles against LHB. Sipp might be a reach with the money they have left (he made $6M last year), but Ollie Perez would be available for >$2M.

The Nats have a number of RH options in the ‘pen, but I still wouldn’t rule out a Greg Holland return if the price is right.

On the bench, did MAT just buy his ticket out of town by refusing a generous arb offer? For his $3.25M, someone like Maybin might make more sense.

The assumption also seems to be that the Nats will add a couple of experienced MLB starters on minor-league deals. That would make sense, if they’ve got the money for it.

]]>By: KWhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108229
Sun, 13 Jan 2019 19:50:57 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108229As Todd noted, LeMaheiu has ONE season in his career with an OPS+ over 100. One. I’m fine with being able to get Dozier just one season. If he clicks, he’ll be a huge addition to the lineup; if not, Kieboom or Kendrick should be ready at some point.

Bryce silliness heating up. I still find it hard to believe that he’d go to Philly, but of course Boras has his mouthpieces Bowden and Nightengale already crowing that he will. My prediction stands: Boras will spend this week using the Phil offer to try to goad teams where Harper wants to be (Dodgers, Cubs) into bidding. If that doesn’t work, he’ll be back on Ted Lerner’s doorstep next week. By this scenario, Bryce will sign somewhere probably on the last week of January.

]]>By: Todd Bosshttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108102
Sat, 12 Jan 2019 19:09:49 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108102Dozier was fantastic in 2015-16 (bWARS of 6.3 and 4.5) … then played with an injury last year. He’ll be in his age 32 season. I like that gamble.

Lowrie: will be in his age 35 season, just put up two solid seasons of 4.0 and 4.8 bWAR after two terrible seasons and mostly a career showing he can’t stay healthy. And he got TWO years and more money AAV.

LeMehaiu: will be in his age 30 season, has had exactly one season where his OPS+ was norht of league average, coming off of two bWAR seasons of 2.9 and 3.0 but nearly all of that value was via defense … and he also got more years and more money.

Yes; i stand by what I said. I’ll take Dozier straight up over both of these guys … certainly so knowing its one year deal for less AAV. Dozier has a much higher demonstrated ceiling, clearly played through injury last year which completely explains his lack of production, is young enough to not be buying decline, and his value is based on his offense not his defense.

]]>By: KWhttp://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108029
Sat, 12 Jan 2019 13:04:55 +0000http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15622#comment-1108029Let’s see, they “saved” .5M over projected on Ross and 1.5M on Turner, but they paid Rendon 1.2M more than projected, so they’re net +800K. Taylor (with absolutely no case, since he was awful) and Barraclough going to arbitration, which will piss off Rizzo. Both of those cases will end up close to projected, so Nats may have saved around $1M that can be spent elsewhere. MAT may also have cashed his ticket out of town, which would open up plenty of money to sign someone like Maybin.
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