Week 11 picks

Buff @ Jax (-8.5). Buff comes out hot inspired by the words of newly hired Perry Fewell. Then, they stop and say to themselves “Perry Fewell, who the hell is that?” and start playing like crap. MJD, Garrard, Mike Sims-Walker go nuts.

SF @ GB (-6.5). SF is a good team and Mike Singletary may well be a good coach. But this game will go to the hotter team. The Pack will build off the momentum from last week and they will roll. Look for 1-2 defensive TDs by the Pack.

NO @ TB (+11.5). I’m tempted to pick TB here as they have played well 2 weeks in a row. And, I think Josh Freeman has had a fairly explosive start to his young career. But I think NO realizes that people are starting to wonder re their 9-0 record – are they really THAT good. This will be one of those games where they show conclusively that they are THAT good. Running, passing, scoring TDs. New Orleans big here.

Cleve @ Det (-3.5). I still don’t know how Eric Mangini starts Jamal Lewis after Lewis’ anti-Mangini comments to the media last week before the Balt game. Sure, he may have had some basis for saying what he said, but those were within-the-lockerroom type comments, not comments for the media. If Mangini wants to be the hardass he seems to want to be, why would he put up with this. But of course, the much bigger question is: why the al;sjdfasfjoawjefoajfjoajf would Mangini even play Jamal Lewis in the first place. HE IS HORRIBLE and he’s been horrible for the last few years. And, he’s announced he’s retiring at the end of the year so he has no investment in the future of the team. Just put Jerome Harrison in there and see what the young guy can do. Bad coaching. Anyway, I’m supposed to comment on this game. Um, no comment.

Cincy @ Oak (9.5). It seems kind of obvious to me that Cedric Benson is not happy the Bengals signed LJ. There were some stories out this past week about how he was pissed they signed LJ and some stories saying that it genuinely didn’t bother him and that the talk that it did bother him was simply overreaction. It wasn’t. Benson is not happy about this. He’s grown petty in part because of how he feels things played out in Chicago. It will be interesting to see if a move like this may end up adversely affecting the Bengals’ sense of team – especially because this is a team that has been playing quite well as a whole team (special teams, offense, defense all help out when needed).

Sea @ MN (-10.5). The temptation is there. I’m tired of the Vikes playing well. But this is the second half of the season now and historically, it’s time for a Minnesota meltdown. Taking Seattle here to cover is a questionable move. taking them to win outright, dumb. I’ll take Seattle to win by 4 because I’m dumb.

Atl @ NYG (-6.5). Neither team seems to be playing true to their identities. Or, maybe neither team is that good. I haven’t thought the Giants have been good for several years now (I was wrong about that obviously for at least a couple of those years). But I thought Atlanta would be decent this year because I think they have a great coach – and they added a great weapon in Tony Gonzalez. Matt Ryan needs to raise his level of play, and if he does that, this could end up being an Atlanta victory.

NYJ @ NE (-10.5). I don’t think any amount of tears can inspire the Jets to take down an angry, angry NE team. While even I probably would have punted that ball away last Sunday vs the Colts, I don’t think Belichick’s decision was a terrible one. His defense had looked shaky in the last 2 Indy possessions and he probably knew that with 2 minutes left Manning could have driven that team down the field whether it was 35 yards or 65 yards. And, Belichick is one of few coaches who astutely gives his offense injections of confidence by going for it on 4th downs. And, he wins ALL THE FREAKIN’ TIME, so he’s pretty much earned his crazy-decision-making immunity.

Tenn @ Hou (-4.5). One offense I seriously don’t enjoy watching is one that runs the option. But imagine if Tenn went to that from time to time with Chris Johnson and Vince Young. Well, they may not need to think about different offensive plays a whole lot when what they’re doing presently is clearly working. Even though the 2008 draft has turned out some nice players (Ryan Clady, Jerrod Mayo, Flacco, Jonathan Stewart), there have to be a few teams kicking themselves for not taking Chris Johnson before the 24th pick.

Indy @ Balt (-.5). Balt will win here. It will be a good game and Balt will win. Should be interesting for the Balt coaching staff/GM Ozzie Newsome to see Matt Stover back (kicking for the Colts). In one of those “we believe in youth” moves, Stover was jettisoned earlier this year in favor of younger kicker Steven H(don’t want to try to spell the last name). Steven sucks, missed a bunch of important kicks and was just cut last week. If I were Stover, I’d request that for one game, the name on the back of my jersey simply read “I told you so”.

SD @ Den (+2.5). I was sure Denver would win this one until I learned Orton may not play. I’m not real confident in Chris Simms. So, it doesn’t make sense that I’m going with Den to win outright here. But I think their defense will rise to the occasion and Knowshon Moreno will go nuts – and I mean nuts. He’s been getting better with each game, but this will be a huge one against a so-so SD defense.

Wash @ Dal (-11.5). These two teams usually play tight games if I’m not mistaken. This shouldn’t be a close game but I think it will be. Betts could have a big game here, but I think it will be the Dallas trio of RBs who will carry the day.

Pitt @ KC (+9.5). With Polamalu out, that should give KC a chance it would seem. But Pitt will be too much and I think Big Ben redeems himself after last week’s poor showing with a huge game.

Phil @ Chic (+3.5). This game is at the bottom because I had the least confidence of all the games picking it. Phil was beaten up by Oak earlier this year and before staging a comeback of sorts last week, got handled by SD. Then they beat up on the NYG and a few other quality teams. I think they often go as McNabb goes. McNabb was terrible the other night against the Cowboys in Philly and despite Chicago being his hometown, I wouldn’t be surprised if McNabb is bad in this one too. Both teams see this as a must win game, but it’s must-winnerer, as it were, for Chicago. I’ll take Chicago because they’re more desperate.