Will Jacob Zuma step down during the ANC Elective Conference 2017?

Christmas could come early, or even get cancelled next week

CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA – NOVEMBER 09: President Jacob Zuma delivers his annual address at the National Council of Provinces (NCOP) on November 09, 2017 in Cape Town, South Africa.

There’s been a few whispers in the build up to the ANC Elective Conference 2017 that Jacob Zuma is ready to throw in the towel. Yes, we may indeed be within a few days of a South Africa that is free from his rule.

It’s a notion that has stayed well and truly under the radar. It isn’t just plausible, however. It is all very possible. Of course, his decision comes with a few caveats. In fact, you can almost guarantee he’ll be doing things his own way…

Will Jacob Zuma resign at the ANC Elective Conference 2017?

Back in November, Zuma got very defensive when hitting out at his critics. Whether it was the bravado talking, a subconscious slip, or a blatant revealing of some sort of ace card up his sleeve, he was happy to share some rather exciting information.

“I will have time to talk to branches in whatever way I want. I am very happy that I am leaving my position in December.”

“As a president, I have to uphold the values of the ANC. I have to maintain a certain standard, but after December, when someone insults me, I will have an opportunity to talk back. At conferences, I will be an ordinary delegate like everyone else.”

He outright told the crowd at a lecture in West Johannesburg that he is leaving his position in December. Though we covered the story, we were unable to get any follow-up comments from the ANC themselves. It would seem the red mist has either clouded his judgement, or forced him into sharing a secret.

When will Jacob Zuma resign?

Should the big man decide to call it a day, we believe that Monday 18th December will be when the ANC nominate their next leader. What isn’t so clear is whether Jacob Zuma will issue an immediate response.

The conference is scheduled to last four days – from the 16th to the 20th December – and any decision to step down would likely fall between the day of the vote, and the last day of the gathering.

What could influence his decision?

Getting what he wants. He has officially endorsed Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to replace him. A smoother, swifter transition of power is more likely if she gets the nod ahead of Cyril Ramaphosa.

The doctor, teacher, and ex-wife of the current President is lagging behind in the polls, though. Cyril has a comfortable lead over NDZ, and secured five branches’ backing to her four (It’s technically 5-3. Here’s the utter gaffe that lead to the confusion.)

Now, Ramaphosa has somewhat changed his tune this year regarding his support for Jacob Zuma. After standing by him for much of his time as Deputy President, he’s cranked up the heat on his senior by slamming his ties to the Gupta family.

With CR as the leader of the ANC, Zuma’s free ride could be set to come to an end. This would surely impact on his decision of when to stand down, no doubt prolonging an already overstayed welcome as SA’s leader.

Can he be forced to resign at the ANC Elective Conference?

No. He doesn’t have to leave once someone else is announced as his replacement. The sooner he goes, the sooner the party can move on. But it’s unlikely that any decision Zuma makes will be for the benefit of anyone but himself.

How long will Jacob Zuma remain as President?

If he chooses not to step down, he could very much stay in office for just over a year. By 2019, he will have to make way for his replacement so they can actually run their own campaign ahead of the general election.

Others believe he will cling to power for as long as possible, in order to abuse his position to keep himself out of court. Whatever the ANC choose next week, they have to start setting their bar higher.