Dry soils greet fall wheat preparations

That sage old piece of farmer folk wisdom, along with its ancillary, "Plant in mud, the crop's a dud," are giving farmers in the region a boost of hope as fall fieldwork and planting begins.

For the second year in a row, wheat farmers face planting into exceptionally dry soils, as record-setting drought and heat continues to blight the nation's midsection.

This summer Kansas, the nation's largest hard red winter wheat producing state, experienced its driest three months since at least 1890, according to the Western Regional Climate Center. Temperatures from January through July posted a new record for the period, according to Mary Knapp, the state climatologist in Manhattan, Kan.

Similar records have been set in Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas over the past two years.

Even with such hurdles to overcome, however, many farmers remain optimistic, even enthusiastic, about putting another wheat crop in the ground.

"Our old seed company president, Leroy Mack, always said you'll sell more seed in a dry year than a wet year," said Roger Goodwin, regional sales manager for Johnston Seed Company of Enid. "Business has been really good for as dry as it has been. Some of our wheat varieties are getting tight. A lot of the triticale is sold out. And there's been a lot of demand for barley."

While nearly all of Eastern Colorado, Western Kansas and Northwestern Oklahoma remain in at least some level of drought, soil conditions do vary as fall preparations begin.

"The soil profile's not full, but I've got moisture," said Rod Hahn of Yuma, Colo., recently. "Look at the wheat crop this past year: everybody was pleasantly surprised. So right now I'm pretty optimistic about the wheat."

Adversity is nothing new to farmers, he said. Hahn recalled that his father got hailed out "17 out of 24 years" and managed to keep the farm going.

"Back then it was different. You didn't need as much money to farm," he said. People relied on hogs, chickens, gardens and canning to survive. "It's a whole different thing now," he added. "From 5 a.m. to 7 a.m., I'm on the Internet every morning. The important thing to ask yourself is have you locked in your crop at a profit?"

Roland Pederson, who farms near the Oklahoma-Kansas border at Burlington, Okla., said the weather situation was uncertain, but getting the wheat up wasn't his foremost concern.

"I'm more worried about what I'm going to do with my cows this winter," he said.

"The hay situation hasn't been all that bad. So far we've raised all of the hay that we had last year," he added on a more positive note. "But from here it will go downhill fast if we have to start feeding them."

Page 2 of 3 - As for the wheat, he felt like there was time left to break the current dry spell by the middle of September, when planting pressure will become more intense.

"Last year we were in worse shape at this time," he said.

Meanwhile, Tom Stephens of Guymon said prospects for fall planting in the Oklahoma panhandle were dire, except on irrigated land.

"We've had three inches of rain all year," he said.

The ground there looks as bare as a cement floor, he continued. He bought a ranch in Eastern Oklahoma to add to his farm operation this year and moved his 1,200 head of cows there.

Wheat grazing shows some potential

For farmers who plan to graze forage from their winter wheat, planting season has already started, according to Roger Gribble, Oklahoma State University's Northwest area extension agronomist.

"There's some places that got three to four inches of rain recently," he said at the annual OSU Wheatland Stocker Conference in Enid. "If the emphasis is on wheat pasture, they'll be in the field. For the rest of the world, it will be a lot like last year. We're going to sit back and just wait and see."

He estimated that about 75 percent of area wheat farmers would graze their wheat this winter, but added the popularity of wheat grazing has declined in recent years as farmers focus on harvesting grain crops and rotating with other alternatives like soybeans and sorghum.

"They've backed out of the cattle deal because of the risk involved," he said. "There's a lot less risk in grain right now. And there's not a lot of risk we will see prices decreasing."

Derrell Peel, OSU's livestock marketing specialist who gave a stocker outlook at the conference, said there would be profit opportunities for stocker producers this year, especially if they are willing to do things a little differently than they normally do.

Due to skyrocketing corn prices, mid-weight cattle around 600 pounds are a better buy than both the lightweight calves and the heavier cattle that are currently priced at a premium in the marketplace, he said.

He showed some budget scenarios that make the lighter weight calves normally prized by stocker producers less attractive.

"If you start with lightweight steers, the value of gain is quite low. As you put the first 50 pounds on them, that's only worth about 18 cents a pound, so those pounds aren't worth much in this market," he said. Conversely, he added, "There's a pretty strong incentive to use some larger animals to start with."

Tight supplies of light calves are keeping them at a premium, he explained, while high corn prices mean feeding operations don't want to put cattle in their yards any longer than they have to.

Page 3 of 3 - "We're close to the peak of the corn market, but the cost of gain in the feedyard hasn't peaked yet," Peel said.

Mike Diel, a large stocker operator from nearby Garber, was skeptical profits would be as high as some of Peel's figures showed. Peel estimated profit margins of $60 to $115 a head on 625-pounders.

Diel said he expected wheat pasture leases to go for 55 to 60 cents per pound of gain this fall, higher for some large corporate feedyard accounts. But he estimated stocker operators would be lucky to clear profit margins of $20 a head.