The Tejas performs aerobatics right over the Bahrain Formula One track

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 22nd Feb 16

In a milestone for India’s Tejas light
combat aircraft (LCA), two Tejas fighters travelled from India to performed
aerobatics at the Bahrain International Air Show (BIAS-2016) from January
21-23. Business Standard has obtained the first official account of this first
international outing, where the Tejas impressed global aerospace experts,
taking an important first step towards export in the future.

This official account comes from the Indian
Air Force (IAF), which is overseeing the flight test programme of the Tejas;
and from the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), the Defence R&D
Organisation body responsible for the Tejas programme.

The proposal for this outing was initiated by
the Kingdom of Bahrain, which invited the defence ministry in September 2015 to
display the Tejas in BIAS-2016. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar quickly gave
the go-ahead for the Tejas, and also the Embraer-mounted Airborne Early Warning
System (AEWS), to travel to Bahrain.

It required a major organisational effort
to get two Tejas fighters, three pilots and a fully equipped maintenance team
from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) to Bahrain. Only then could the Tejas
display its “Made-for Bahrain” aerobatics, showcasing its performance in
vertical climbs, tight turns, high-speed runs and slow flying ability.

The IAF detailed one of its giant C-17
Globemaster IIIs to transport the maintenance team and equipment to Bahrain.
Two Tejas fighters flew three legs, over three days --- the first from
Bangalore to Jamnagar, Gujarat (1,800 kilometres); the second to Muscat (1,200
km), and the final leg to Bahrain (850 km).

The Indian Navy supported the flight over
the Arabian Sea. The pilots were provided sea survival training at the new
Water Survival Training Facility at Kochi. During the flights between
Jamnagar and Muscat, the navy kept one P8-I maritime aircraft airborne throughout,
in case a rescue was needed.

Says Commodore (Retired) CD Balaji, who
heads ADA: “The Bahraini authorities made us extremely welcome. Their minister
for transportation personally came to the airport to receive the Tejas fighters
when they flew in. The King of Bahrain came to our stall during the exhibition.
We gifted him a model of the Tejas.”

Balaji confirms that the Pakistani light
fighter, the JF-17 Thunder, was to come to Bahrain but pulled out at the last
minute --- it has been speculated that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) realised it
would be overshadowed by the Tejas.

“We don’t know why Pakistan pulled out the
JF-17. But, yes, it was scheduled to be at Bahrain. Its parking slot, which was
next to ours, was eventually occupied by the Eurofighter”, says Balaji.

The Tejas’ flight displays went off
flawlessly, with pilots from the National Flight Test Centre in Bangalore
having put together a special “product demonstration” performance, which
showcased for potential customers the operational performance that makes it a combat-worthy
fighter --- such as the ability to climb quickly and turn tightly.

The IAF, which is traditionally measured in
its evaluation of the Tejas, says the fighter’s “control harmony is comparable
to the best in the world… The intuitive cockpit layout and highly reliable life
support systems provide for comfort as well as excellent situational
awareness.”

Authoritatively detailing the Tejas’
performance parameters, the IAF says: “The LCA has a very competitive and
cotemporary operational envelope. It is capable of operations up to an altitude
of 50,000 feet and a maximum speed of 1.6 Mach at [high] altitudes or 730
knots… at low levels. The aircraft [can turn at] +8G to -2.5G (which allows it
to U-turn in 350 metres) in operationally clean configuration… or +6G to -2.5G
with other external stores.”

The IAF sums up: “The LCA Mark 1 was
designed as a worthy indigenous replacement to the MiG fleet that has been the
backbone of the defence of our skies for several decades. It is a safe and
contemporary design with a reliable and efficient engine and many modern
features. The aircraft is cockpit friendly, agile and easy to fly.
It is this capability that was displayed in the recently concluded Bahrain
International Air Show… Serial production of the aircraft by HAL has started
and it is expected that fighter will be operationally inducted by IAF in 2016."

Saturday, 20 February 2016

Pakistan on track to have five F-16s squadrons,
more likely as Pakistan looks to buy from Europe

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 20th Feb 16

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has
joined the chorus of protest at Washington’s announcement that it will sell Pakistan
eight F-16 fighters for $699 million, in the fighter’s most potent
configuration called Block 50/52.

On Thursday, speaking to interviewer Karan
Thapar on India Today TV, Parrikar termed the sale a “down” in the US-India
relationship, stating: “I’m quite hurt by that and we have expressed our
feelings very clearly to America.”

This came a day after Phil Shaw, the India
head of Lockheed Martin, the company that builds the F-16, offered at the
Singapore Air Show to “build the F-16 aircraft in India [and] to move our
production line from the US to India with an Indian partner to help with the
‘Make in India’ process.”

MoD sources say the US proposal to
establish an F-16 production line in India has been dead for some time now. The
Pakistan sale only hammers a final nail into that proposal’s coffin.

The origin of the latest sale goes back to
2006, when Washington signed a $1.4 billion deal to supply 18 Block 50/52 F-16C/D
fighters to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), an order that was delivered in
2010-11. That contract included an option for 18 more aircraft. The eight new
F-16s, about which the US Congress was notified last Friday, are being supplied
under that options clause.

The US Department of Defense (Pentagon) is
reportedly paying almost half the cost as military aid. The Congressional
Research Service (CRS) reports that, between 2002-2014, the US sold Pakistan military
kit worth $5.4 billion under the Foreign Military Sales programme. About half consisted
of F-16s and related equipment.

The CRS reports that, since 2001, the US
Congress has allocated $3.6 billion in Foreign Military Financing (an aid
category) for Pakistan. More than two-third of this has been disbursed already.

New Delhi is not hiding its anger at this US
largesse. On Saturday, the day after the Congressional notification, India’s
foreign ministry summoned US envoy, Richard Verma, to protest the sale.

The Pentagon has downplayed Indian concerns,
indicating the F-16s were being supplied for counter-terrorist operations in
Pakistan’s federally administered tribal areas (FATA). On Tuesday, Pentagon
Press Secretary Petro Cook stated: “We think these are important capabilities
for Pakistan to go after terrorists… We don’t think it should be a cause for
concern for India.”

Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak of the Centre
for Air Power Studies, points out that such advanced fighters are not needed
for striking terrorist targets. “When I last looked, the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan didn’t have an air force! The war on terror does not require
air-to-air missiles, airborne radar, and digital avionics,” says Kak.

Aviation expert, Pushpindar Singh, points
out that the US is supplying the Embraer A-29 Super Tucano to the Afghanistan
air force. “In those narrow valleys, ground strikes against terrorist are best
delivered by the propeller-driven A-29 Super Tucano, which has armour
protection and can even deliver laser guided bombs. The Block 50/52 F-16C/D is
primarily for use against a modern air force like India’s”, he says.

India is not alone in protesting the latest
F-16 sale. Influential Republican senator, Bob Corker, who heads the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, has indicated he will, in the least, oppose the US
subsidy on the sale.

US assistance has raised Pakistan’s F-16 numbers
from two squadrons (40 aircraft) of earlier-generation F-16A/B fighters to four
state-of-the-art squadrons that are a match for anything the Indian Air Force
(IAF) can throw at them.

The most potent are the 18 Block 50/52 F-16C/Ds
that Pakistan obtained in 2010-11, which are based in in PAF Base Shahbaz,
outside Jacobabad, forming the PAF’s No. 5 Squadron. Along with these, the US supplied
the AMRAAM (advanced medium range air-to-air missile), which can target enemy
fighters “beyond visual range” (BVR). This was the first time the PAF obtained
BVR missiles, obliging the IAF to transform their air-to-air combat tactics.

That contract also provided the PAF with
JDAMs (joint direct attack munitions), which convert regular gravity bombs into
“smart munitions”. A JDAM kit bolted onto a dumb bomb, guides it with pin-point
precision to a target 28 kilometres away, using “inertial guidance” and a
Global Positioning System receiver. With air-to-air refuelling, these F-16s can
strike Indian targets near Mumbai and further south.

The eight new F-16s would come with all
this weaponry, as would the 10 additional fighters on which Pakistan could exercise
“options” to make up a full new squadron. Like No.5 Squadron, the new squadron
too will most likely be based at Jacobabad, since the US has imposed stringent
conditions on where Pakistan can base F-16s.

Wikileaks made public a cable (No.
113106/1201 dated June 22nd, 2007) that the US Embassy in Islamabad
sent to Washington, revealing US conditions for basing and operating the new F-16s.
It says: “The F-16… must be housed on separate, pre-designated Pakistan Air
Force bases to ensure no unauthorized access. Furthermore, Pakistan may not
have non-U.S./non-Pakistan origin aircraft or personnel at any of the bases
with these F-16 aircraft and related equipment.”

Further, to keep Chinese technicians and
pilots away from the F-16s, “No foreign units or personnel may be permanently
or temporarily assigned at the bases where F-16 aircraft are assigned, parked,
maintained or stored, or while deployed.”

Besides Jacobabad, Pakistan bases three
squadrons of its older F-16A/B fighters --- Nos 9, 11 and 19 Squadrons --- at
Sargodha, in PAF Base Mushaf. The first two operate 34 Block 15 F-16A/B
fighters, which are what remains of the first 40 F-16s that Pakistan acquired in
the 1980s. As part of the 2006 contract, the US provided mid-life upgrade (MLU)
kits for these fighters, greatly improving their capability, though not to the
level of the Block 50/52 F-16s.

No 19 Squadron has been equipped from 26
older (but upgraded) Block 15 F-16s that the US supplied at throwaway rates, in
the category of “Excess Defence Articles” that the US military no longer
required.

Pakistan also bought 12-13 Block 15 F-16s
from Jordan. Now upgraded, these are used for training PAF pilots in
establishments like the Combat Commander’s School.

Pushpindar Singh says Pakistan is also
looking for old-model F-16s from European air forces --- such as Belgium,
Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, Greece and Italy --- which are being replaced by
new fighters like the Eurofighter Typhoon and the F-35 Lightning II. “These can
be upgraded cheaply with US-supplied kits, to replace the PAF’s obsolescent
Mirage III, Mirage V and F-7 fighters that are nearing retirement”, says Singh.

Wikileaks revealed a cable sent by an
exasperated US embassy official in Islamabad that noted: “The Pakistan Air
Force is obsessed with F-16s… The request for used F-16s represents the GOP’s
(government of Pakistan’s) desire to acquire aircraft at an extreme discount.”

Friday, 19 February 2016

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar bluntly
stated on Thursday that negotiations for buying 36 Rafale fighters from French
aerospace vendor, Dassault, were deadlocked on the issue of price, and that no
deal would be signed until the price was right.

Well-informed defence ministry sources that
are close to the negotiation say there is a wide gulf between the two sides.
“The difference between what France is demanding and what India is willing to
pay is too large to bridge easily --- about 25 per cent.”

Parrikar told India Today TV: “Price is the
problem which has to be resolved. Unless I get the right price, I cannot sign.”

Debunking recent media articles that a deal
was imminent, most recently in Hindustan Times on February 11, Parrikar said
ironing out the remaining issues would take “a few months”.

Pressed on the question of time-frame,
Parrikar responded: “You can’t commit yourself to a time, because this is not a
negotiation for a few hundred crores. This is thousands of crores. I should
not… put a time line on my price negotiation.”

On January 25, during his visit to Delhi,
French President Francois Hollande declared after signing an inter-governmental
agreement for the supply of 36 Rafales, “There are some financial issues that
will be sorted out in a couple of days…” It now appears he may have been
speaking figuratively.

On January 27, French ambassador to New
Delhi, Francois Richier, put a deadline of four months for the price to be
negotiated.

Today, Parrikar also confirmed that India
had demanded offsets worth 50 per cent of the deal value, and that Dassault had
agreed to that condition.

“We have resolved all the other issues.
There were terms of guarantees, there were terms of supply, there were terms of
how it will be done”, said Parrikar.

The defence minister denied that the window
was open for buying more Rafale fighters, beyond the 36 being currently
negotiated. “As of now, the negotiation is for 36 (fighters). There are many
possibilities, but this deal is for 36”, he said.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on a
visit to Paris last April, requested for 36 Rafales, New Delhi and had Paris
agreed the price would be less than what Dassault had quoted in response to the
Indian tender of 2007 for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). Of
those 126 fighters, the first 18 were to be supplied in “flyaway condition”,
i.e. fully built. Since 36 Rafales are now being bought in “flyaway condition”,
their per-piece price must be lower than what Dassault quoted for those 18
fighters.

The Indian Air Force had chosen the Rafale
on January 31, 2012, in India’s tender for 126 MMRCA aircraft. However, in
protracted price negotiations that followed, the defence ministry found problems
in Dassault’s financial bid. Eventually, Modi chose to abandon the MMRCA
tender, and instead buy 36 Rafales over-the-counter.

Thursday, 18 February 2016

BAE Systems to start delivery in six
months, $750 million for 145 guns

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 18th Feb 16

On Monday, the United States Department of Defense
(Pentagon) delivered to the defence ministry a Letter of Acceptance (LoA), agreeing
to supply 145 M777 ultra lightweight howitzers to India. Valid for 180 days,
the LoA spells out the contract price, terms of supply and options available.

Sources close to the sale tell Business Standard the asking
price for 145 guns is about $750 million (Rs 5,000 crore). The vendor, BAE
Systems, will supply the first batch of 155-millimetre, 39-calibre howitzers within six months of signing the
contract. The remaining guns would progressively be built in India.

In August
2013, the Pentagon had notified the US Congress that it was raising the maximum
price of the sale to India from US $647 million, which had been notified in Jan
2010, to $885 million. However, BAE Systems officials clarify that this represented
a maximum ceiling price, and the actual sale price would be significantly
lower.

On
Wednesday, BAE Systems named the Mahindra Group as its Indian partner for
assembling imported M777 kits into fully built guns. BAE Systems has so far
assembled the M777 in Hattiesburg, USA. With that line now shuttered, Mahindra
will build the guns in an “Assembly, Integration and Test (AIT) facility”,
using components shipped to India from BAE Systems facilities in the UK.

“BAE
Systems is pleased to partner with Mahindra on our offer to develop an
Assembly, Integration and Test facility in India. The facility is a fundamental
part of the M777 production line,”said BAE Systems on Wednesday.

According to BAE Systems officials, the Pentagon has drawn
up the LoA in close consultation with the customer, i.e. the Indian government.
That would suggest the bulk of the negotiation has been completed.

Last May, after years of negotiations, the defence ministry cleared the purchase of 145
M777s for Rs 2,900 crore. The union cabinet must now clear the sale at the new
price of Rs 5,000 crore.

Over the last three years, negotiations had apparently
stalled, with successive defence ministers, AK Antony and Arun Jaitley,
informing parliament that the cost was too high, and BAE Systems’ offset
proposal was inadequate.

That impasse was broken last year when BAE Systems offered to
assemble, integrate and test the M-777 in India. This brings the offer in
conformity with the “Make in India” initiative. BAE Systems has also submitted
a fresh offsets proposal.

BAE Systems pointed out on Wednesday: “A domestic Assembly,
Integration and Test facility will enable the Indian Army to access
maintenance, spares and support for the M777 locally.”

The M777, which has seen extensive operational service with
the US military in Afghanistan, is being acquired to support Indian army
operations on the rugged Himalayan borders with China and Pakistan. Built of
titanium components and weighing just 4 tonnes (compared to 10-tonne conventional
155-millimetre guns), it can be air-lifted to high altitude deployment areas by
helicopters like the CH-47E Chinook, which India is buying separately. The gun
can also be towed more easily on narrow, twisty mountain roads.

The initial
order for 145 guns could rise significantly once the M777 starts being built in
India. This would equip just 6-7 artillery regiments, while the army actually
needs new artillery for 50-plus artillery regiments in 16 mountain divisions.

“If India
can offer a consolidated order for the 1,000-odd guns needed for 50 regiments,
BAE Systems could be induced to offer far higher indigenisation”, says a senior
artillery officer.

India’s
220-odd artillery regiments have received no new artillery since the 1980s,
when it bought 400 FH-77B, 155 mm/39 calibre Bofors guns. An indigenous effort
by the Ordnance Factory Board to develop a 155 mm/45 calibre gun is proceeding slowly,
with a gun barrel bursting during trial firing in 2013. Simultaneously, the
Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) is developing a 155 mm/52 calibre artillery
gun in partnership with the private sector.

India has
pursued the M77 procurement through the Pentagon, under the Foreign Military
Sales (FMS) programme. This involves the Pentagon negotiating terms with the
vendor (BAE Systems), and signing the deal as a government-to-government
contract.

Tuesday, 16 February 2016

The military, like a child kept hungry for years, no longer dares to ask for the budget it really needs

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 16th Feb 16

Since October the military has been
negotiating with the defence and finance ministries to finalise financial
allocations for the coming financial year, 2016-17. Unfailingly unimaginative,
the military’s various departments have taken the current year’s allocations,
upped them by five to 10 per cent and projected that as next year’s
requirements. As usual, the finance ministry has arbitrarily cut those requests.
Like always, when revised estimates are prepared at the end of the year, the
capital allocation (for equipment modernisation) will be slashed further since
revenue expenditure, particularly salaries, must be paid on priority. Year
after year the military ends up spending money quite differently from what had been
allocated.

Every military financial planner admits the
services are consistently under-budget in both the revenue and capital heads. Weaponry
sanctioned under the 15-year Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan requires significantly
higher capital allocations. Yet, like a child that has been consistently
underfed for years, the military no longer dares to ask for a full meal. To
stretch this analogy further, were the military to be given that full meal, it
would probably be incapable of digesting it. Yet, if only as an academic
exercise, it is worth reflecting on what a realistic allocation might be for
the military.

Projected Budget for 2016-17

2014-15 (BE)

2014-15 (RE)

2015-16 (BE)

2016-17 (projected)

Revenue budget

Salary payroll

83581

86574

93216

111860*

Other revenue expenditure

50831

53831

58923

67761 **

Total Revenue allocation

134412

140405

152139

179621

Capital budget

Army

20630

16868

21574

39713

Navy

22312

17471

23911

53591

IAF

31818

31818

31481

48741

Defence R&D Org

9298

7148

7788

11682

Other heads

10530

8660

9834

9834

Total Capital allocation

94588

81965

94588

163561

Total budget allocation

229000

222370

246727

343182

Total
government spending

1794892

1681158

1777477

1884125@

Gross
domestic production

12876653

12653762

14108945

15167116#

% of total spending

12.75%

13.25%

13.85%

18.25%

% of GDP

1.78%

1.76%

1.75%

2.25%

*Estimating salary increase of 20 per
cent across the board

** Non-salary expenditure increase of
15 per cent

@Estimated govt
spending rise 6 per cent, against 5.5 per cent in 2015-16

# Estimated GDP rise by 7.5 per cent, against 11.5 per cent
in 2015-16

In the revenue head the payroll is growing,
with the government bound to accept most recommendations of the 7th
Central Pay Commission. A modest increase of 20 per cent over the current
year’s salary allocation and a 15 per cent increase on non-salary spending
would boost the revenue allocation to Rs 1,79,621 crore ($26.6 billion).

The capital budget would grow even more.
The army, while a relatively low-tech, manpower-intensive service, badly needs
new equipment --- including artillery, air defence missiles, new-generation
personal weapons and battlefield communication systems. Equipment worth Rs
1,81,450 crore ($26.9 billion) is already sanctioned. Assuming these contracts divide
payment into ten equal annual instalments, this year requires Rs 18,145 crore over
and above the Rs 21,574 crore committed last year, which would cover
liabilities committed earlier. That would take up the army’s capital allocation
to Rs 39,713 crore ($5.9 billion).

Army acquisitions

Cost (Rs crore)

Artillery gun procurements (sanctioned)

28450

2 regiments Pinaka rocket launchers

5000

Short and medium range surface-to-air missiles

30000

Short range surface-to-air missiles

30000

Tactical
Communications System (Make project)

20000

Battlefield Management System (Make project)

50000

Rifles, carbines, machine guns and sights

12000

Unmanned
Aerial Vehicles

6000

Total new
army acquisitions

1,81,450

Urgent naval procurements include
submarines, stealth frigates, logistic support vessels, anti-submarine and
counter-mine vessels and, most crucially, ship-borne helicopters. This adds up
to Rs 2,96,800 crore ($44 billion), of which one-tenth must be provisioned for in
this budget. Catering for committed liabilities, the navy’s capital allocation must
rise to Rs 53,591 crore ($8 billion).

Navy acquisitions

Cost (Rs crore)

Six conventional submarines (Project 75 I)

60000

Lease of second nuclear sub from Russia

5400

Seven stealth frigates (Project 17A)

45400

Six fleet support ships

24000

150
naval utility helicopters

15000

139 naval multi-role helicopters

60000

4 Boeing P8-I maritime aircraft

7000

4-6
landing platform docks

16000

24 mine counter measure vessels

36000

2 midget submarines for special operations

2000

Refit of 10 submarines

10000

16 anti-sub shallow water craft

16000

Total new Navy
acquisitions

2,96,800

The air force, which traditionally receives
the highest capital allocation, is looking to conclude contracts for the
(vastly overpriced) Rafale fighter, extending the Jaguar fighter’s service
life, and a range of helicopters. Contracts worth Rs 1,72,600 crore ($25.5
billion) require urgent conclusion, with Rs 17,260 crore payable this year.
That takes the air force’s capital allocation to Rs 48,741 crore ($7.2 billion).

Air Force acquisitions

Cost (Rs crore)

36
Rafale medium fighter

63000

125 Jaguar re-engining and upgrade

20000

Indo-Russian fifth generation fighter

25000

56 Avro aircraft replacement aircraft

15000

20 Hawk
advanced jet trainers

2000

22 Apache AH-64E attack helicopters

8500

15 Chinook CH-47F heavy lift helicopters

6600

384 Light Utility Helicopters (LuH)

13500

Surface-to-air missiles

30000

Total new Air Force acquisitions

1,72,600

Acquisitions (all services)

6,50,850

All this would take the capital allocation
to Rs 1,63,561 crore ($24.2 billion), slightly less than the revenue
allocation. That would boost the defence budget by almost 40 per cent from the
current Rs 2,46,727 crore ($36.5 billion), to Rs 3,43,182 crore ($50.8 billion).
As a share of government spending, defence would rise from 13.85 to 18.25 per
cent; and from 1.75 to 2.25 per cent of the gross national product (GDP).

Can India spend 2.25 per cent of GDP on
defence, given the government’s fiscal deficit targets, and the pressing need
to boost spending on healthcare, education and food for the poor? That is a
political call. India’s on-going border disputes with China and Pakistan,
several long-running insurgencies, and the army’s frequent employment on
natural disasters require high preparedness. If the government decides it
cannot spend more on defence than it already does, national strategy and the
military’s tasking must reflect the realities of our pocket.