tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543Wed, 07 Mar 2018 20:41:26 +0000U.S.Middle East'08IraqGlobal WarmingIranTerrorismCafferty FileCafferty File EmailEmailPollRussiaeurope/e.u.Alternative EnergyChinaEthics/ReligionIsraelLawNorth KoreaGaza Strip\West BankHistoryAlternative Energy SeriesIllegal ImmigrationStatisticsEndorsementGays in the Military SeriesPost of the MonthU.N.DarfurBottled Water MiniseriesU.K.Summary-Analysis-OpinionAfricaKashmirPovertyThoughts on the WorldOpinion and analysis of current events: Geopolitics, U.S. politics, global warming and more. A realistic, moderate, left leaning look at politics.http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.com (Simmons)Blogger409125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-3222769117905471287Sat, 18 Oct 2008 22:10:00 +00002008-10-18T18:11:39.221-04:00IraqU.S.The U.S. should pull out of Chicago immediately<p>The U.S. should immediately pull out of Chicago! </p><p><strong>Body count</strong>. In the last six months 292 killed (murdered) in Chicago, 221 killed in Iraq.</p><div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=l84S0iPp"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=HO0RcfEd"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=HO0RcfEd" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=wmAoG3te"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=wmAoG3te" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=oTAqdF4A"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=oTAqdF4A" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/I0qJhn2J2n8" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/I0qJhn2J2n8/us-should-pull-out-of-chicago.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)136http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/10/us-should-pull-out-of-chicago.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-2746325319265141850Wed, 15 Oct 2008 22:16:00 +00002008-10-15T18:34:46.830-04:00PovertyBlog Action Day 2008 Post: Poverty - Why Does Poverty Matter?<p>Long time no see. I'm back (semi-permanently) to write about poverty for <a href="http://blogactionday.org/">Blog Action Day 2008</a>. The problem is: what to write about?</p><p>I'm sure there's thousands of other political blogs out there profiling Obama and McCain's respective positions on poverty. That would be boring.</p><p>I could write about the millions of things you could do to help fight poverty. Once again, I'm sure hundreds of other blogs are doing the same thing.</p><p>How about this: <strong>why does poverty matter</strong>? From a humanitarian position, of course it's terrible. But what about from a realist political position? Who gives a sh!t about the poor, homeless, and starving of the Earth?</p><p>There are plenty of reasons.</p><ul><li>Poverty spreads disease, greatly undermining the effectiveness of local governments.</li><li>Poverty causes violence, also undermining the effectiveness of local governments.</li><li>People living in poverty are more vulnerable to extremist political persuasion, and feel less loyalty to a state unable to deliver basic services. </li><li>States with high rates of poverty are more likely to have malevolent dictatorships, threatening regional stability.</li></ul><p>For these reasons conditions of poverty increase the risk of political violence, terrorism, war and genocide, and make those living in poverty vulnerable to human trafficking, internal displacement and exile as refugees. Countries suffering widespread poverty may experience loss of population, particularly in high-skilled professions, which may further undermine their ability to improve their situation.</p><p>Poverty is not just worry for "lefty commies"; it's a geopolitical concern for governments everywhere.</p><br /><br /><script src="http://blogactionday.org/js/456d6996ea6b6364d531a11f43c288173a2a5e86"></script><div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=Yvqihc70"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=GBGIZPHO"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=GBGIZPHO" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=JqN1zurO"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=JqN1zurO" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=6HBbQGe3"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=6HBbQGe3" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/twbMwYtckHM" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/twbMwYtckHM/blog-action-day-2008-post-poverty-why.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)13http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/10/blog-action-day-2008-post-poverty-why.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-8174651297771097601Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:42:00 +00002008-09-19T16:43:46.261-04:00IraqMiddle EastRussiaU.S.On Force and DiplomacyYou make one fatal assumption, however. You believe that the North Koreans would believe that we would actually attack them. There's no way we would, right now. <b>Maybe 10 years ago they would have believed us capable, when we weren't involved in Iraq and Afghanistan</b>, but there's no way now.<br /><br />I am not against diplomacy backed up by force (you do need carrots to go along with those sticks, though). The worry by you conservatives would be, of course, you have to be willing to actually use that force when push comes to shove. I might have said some contradictory things before, but I do believe that force is sometimes necessary. <b>You just have to know when to limit it.</b> I believe that the invasion of Grenada, the invasion of Panama, the first Gulf War, and Clinton's Operation Desert Fox were all necessary and carried out well. We did not occupy for five years and we only took down the government when we knew what we were getting into - <b>we knew our limits</b>.<br /><br />I hate to sound like that liberal that always goes back to blaming Bush, but: Bush did not know his limits. He <b>unnecessarily</b> invaded Iraq, which took away press, money, supplies, troops, and most importantly <b>public attention</b> away from Afghanistan. Maybe we could have launched airstrikes in Iraq. Maybe that would have been acceptable; however, overthrowing the Hussein regime took it to far. And Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Co. didn't even do it well! The occupation of Iraq was a failure.<br /><br />Anyway, I'm getting a little side tracked. My point is this: negotiations carried out with the threat of force are always great, as long as you know your limits.<br /><br />So: how about in 10 years, when we're out of Iraq and Afghanistan (I can't wait), we settle down and talk to those Russians. Tell them, hey, you invade Germany from your newly established bases in conquered Poland - we'll kick your ass.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=OjvwMvRA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=xYT9hKUF"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=xYT9hKUF" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=NljbO82H"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=NljbO82H" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=wJqJ2iDd"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=wJqJ2iDd" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/KaoBF0AltqY" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/KaoBF0AltqY/on-force-and-diplomacy.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)18http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/09/on-force-and-diplomacy.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-3783171629299032006Thu, 18 Sep 2008 00:15:00 +00002008-09-17T20:20:25.343-04:00EndorsementGaza Strip\West BankIsraelRationality Wins in IsraelBBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7620215.stm">Livni claims victory in Israeli vote</a><br /><br />This is great. Livni, by far, seems like the smartest, most rational of the candidates presented to Kadima voters. However, the fight is not yet over: early parliamentary elections could mean far right leader Benjamin Netanyahu could take power. This would be disastrous. Netanyahu has a record of being a hardliner not willing to make compromises.<br /><br />I'll try to elaborate more tomorrow.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=NEdD3PW1"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=N2gXwqh0"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=N2gXwqh0" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=be0yCCl5"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=be0yCCl5" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=Sd0YJXaB"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=Sd0YJXaB" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/-CHgm70LDz0" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/-CHgm70LDz0/rationality-wins-in-israel.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)5http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/09/rationality-wins-in-israel.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-6223557564958486131Wed, 10 Sep 2008 00:08:00 +00002008-09-09T20:11:47.342-04:00North KoreaU.S.North Korean Policy After Kim Jong Il<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5rb8OzBF17U/SMcQq9mM4oI/AAAAAAAAAno/Z-64aL56LS0/s1600-h/KimJongIl2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5rb8OzBF17U/SMcQq9mM4oI/AAAAAAAAAno/Z-64aL56LS0/s400/KimJongIl2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5244178621371572866" /></a><br />AP: Officials: <a href="http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1839884,00.html">N Korea's Kim Possibly Ill</a><br />LA Times: <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-kim10-2008sep10,0,7264304.story">North Korea's Kim Jong Il may have had a stroke: U.S. intelligence officials</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Background</span><br />Kim Jong-Il, the eccentric dictator of North Korea, has suffered a stroke, according to information leaked to the AP from American intelligence officials. Now, let’s keep in mind some context: negotiations on the North’s nuclear weapon program were beginning to get rocky: North Korea had begun to stall on its end of the deal. Could this be a political move? And if not, how will this affect the denuclearization process?<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Watching the military</span><br />North Korea does not have a succession mechanism in place. Kim was the obvious pick after his father died, but there is no obvious heir for succeeding Kim. His death could lead to the collapse of his regime.<br /><br />It is more likely, however, that with the death of Kim, the military will take power. That’s bad new for the West: the North Korean military is strongly against giving up its nuclear program. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">What can the U.S. do</span><br />It is always possible (and maybe likely) Kim is still alive. Our current policy run by Christopher Hill should continue until death is confirmed or denied. With any new leaders, a wait-and-see approach should be adopted: will they be reformers?<br /><br />All we can do is wait.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=2CSiRMjy"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=ky6wqk3i"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=ky6wqk3i" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=ejqMtdXN"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=ejqMtdXN" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=Dxsint8I"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=Dxsint8I" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/ureSnFUxtPI" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/ureSnFUxtPI/north-korean-policy-after-kim-jong-il.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)5http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/09/north-korean-policy-after-kim-jong-il.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-1668908863335061658Fri, 29 Aug 2008 19:06:00 +00002008-08-29T15:25:20.679-04:00'08U.S.Sarah Palin: A Smart Move… Or Not?<div style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 400px; height: 315px;" src="http://www.newsday.com/media/photo/2008-08/41940673.jpg" /><br /></div><br />In case you haven’t heard by now, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has been chosen as John McCain’s running mate for the presidency. Palin has had more than one success during her short term (so far) as governor:<br /><br />• Exposing ethical violations among Alaskan Republican leaders<br />• Canceling pork projects, including the ‘bridge to no where’<br />• Maintaining a 60% approval rating – she’s a “true conservative”<br />• Coining the term ‘<a href="http://vpilf.com/">VPILF</a>’<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">A good choice then?</span><br />Maybe. As one anonymous Digg commentator put it:<br />"[T]his is a brilliant move by McCain:<br /><br />1. She would be the only candidate with executive experience (McCain, Biden, Obama only have legislative experience)<br />2. Appeals to conservatives<br />3. Will channel the women vote, and Hillary supporters' in particular<br />4. Charismatic, smart, principled, dedicated, American all the way<br />5. Younger than Obama<br />6. Wow factor: will definitely embellish the ticket ;)"<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Or maybe not?</span><br />However, Palin carries some serious baggage. As one anonymous Redditor put it:<br />"In one move McCain took experience off the table, fired a shoot at his racist/misogynist supporters, doubled down on Big Oil, and made corruption an even bigger issue. It may well be game over."<br /><br />To explain: Palin has very little experience – a criticism McCain has applied to Obama. Palin is close to Big Oil just by being governor of Alaska, and as well by trying to block polar bears from receiving protection under the Endangered Species Act. And as to the comment that she makes ‘corruption an even bigger issue’ – Palin has painted herself as huge on hunting down corruption, while at the same time she herself is under investigation.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">So...</span><br />What do you guys think?<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=2znK0uKo"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=Aczh3sLV"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=Aczh3sLV" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=IMvf3aS3"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=IMvf3aS3" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=ds8z3Ut8"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=ds8z3Ut8" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/HmX--N92xCQ" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/HmX--N92xCQ/sarah-palin-smart-move-or-not.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)7http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/sarah-palin-smart-move-or-not.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-7137754447468841833Thu, 28 Aug 2008 23:11:00 +00002008-08-28T19:16:10.319-04:00What to do about North Korea: A Conundrum<div style="text-align: center;"><img style="width: 400px; height: 267px;" src="http://www.welt.de/multimedia/archive/00599/eng_NK_demolished_B_599314g.jpg" /><br /></div><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSSEO2172420080826?sp=true">North Korea to suspend nuclear disarmament</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Background</span><br />After months of progress in North Korea, the totalitarian regime in Pyongyang has decided to take a step backwards and is suspending the disablement of its nuclear program. North Korea wants the United States to take it off of the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terror, and the U.S. has said it will – once it verifies NK is disarming.<br /><br />Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said that Washington is in contact with North Korea trying to resolve this issue.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">What North Korea is doing</span><br />Kim Jong-Il is trying to delay as much as possible. Pyongyang’s nuclear program is its most powerful negotiating card. He is reluctant to give it up. As well, his government is trying to get more out of the disarmament deal – namely, getting off the terror blacklist before full verifications are made.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Walking a fine line</span><br />Dealing with North Korea is a balancing act between being assertive enough without provoking a negotiations-ruining response and being acquiescent enough to get a deal done.<br /><br />This conundrum makes it hard to tell what to do next.<br /><br />A mechanism for verifying Pyongyang’s disarmament still needs to be set up: this should be the primary goal. During this crucial time, we must be careful not to needlessly provoke North Korea. However, that does not mean we should be weak.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=dJZXNIA1"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=ibqoPfyU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=ibqoPfyU" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=PdmoAdTC"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=PdmoAdTC" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=YxjqoQft"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=YxjqoQft" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/iMDw9T0xqhY" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/iMDw9T0xqhY/what-to-do-about-north-korea-conundrum.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)5http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/what-to-do-about-north-korea-conundrum.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-3530010869823361067Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:16:00 +00002008-08-26T13:25:51.480-04:00RussiaU.S.A List of Former Soviet Breakaway Regions and How We Can Prevent the Next South OssetiaBBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7582181.stm">Russian recognizes Georgian rebels</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Georgia/idUSLP59197620080825?sp=true">Russia warns Moldova against Georgian mistake</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">A list of former Warsaw Pact breakaway regions</span><br />It is easy to forget, with the way the mainstream media acts, that Kosovo, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia are not the only regions trying to gain independence in the former Soviet Union (FSU) and its regional allies – the countries of the Warsaw Pact. Almost all of these regions have received backing from Russia. Without further ado, the list:<br /><br /><u><span style="font-weight:bold;">Movements supported by Russia</span></u><br />• South Ossetia (Georgia)<br />• Abkhazia (Georgia)<br />• Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)<br />• Nakhchivan (Armenia)<br />• Crimea (Ukraine)<br />• Transnistria (Moldova)<br /><br /><u><span style="font-weight:bold;">Movements not supported by Russia</span></u><br />• Chechnya (Russia)<br />• Kosovo (formerly in Serbia)<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The next war</span><br />Where is Russia most likely to provoke war in next? Crimea in the Ukraine has been widely seen as the next target. The Ukraine almost received NATO membership this year, and is becoming a closer ally of the United States. Russia has begun handing out citizenship to those living in Crimea – exactly what it did in Georgia, and Russia’s main excuse for war.<br /><br />However, Crimea has not been a flashpoint for violence, unlike South Ossetia and Abkhazia. As well, Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko is not as nationalistic or as hotheaded as Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Preventive measures</span><br />As I’ve argued before, we must include Georgia and the Ukraine in NATO as soon as possible. One, to deter Russian aggression and to ensure any attack by Russia could be properly responded to. Two, to isolate Russia. The policy of containment worked during the Cold War. There’s no reason it shouldn’t work now.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/Q1n7kARguG4" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/Q1n7kARguG4/list-of-former-soviet-breakaway-regions.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)1http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/list-of-former-soviet-breakaway-regions.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-7125656884054479310Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:37:00 +00002008-08-22T19:40:46.233-04:00'08IranIraqU.N.U.S.Deal Would Have the US Out of Iraq by 2012 - A Good PlanNYT: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/22/world/middleeast/22baghdad.html?ref=world">Draft Accord With Iraq Sets Goal of 2011 Pullout</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Note</span><br />I cannot fully write about this yet because of the fact that the agreement has not been released, and I don’t know if the full treaty will every fully be released. However: details will continue to come in, and as they do, I will write new articles.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">A good plan</span><br />United States and Iraqi negotiators have been haggling over a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) for several months now. Up until now, the international military presence in Iraq has been legitimized by United Nations Security Council Resolutions. This new agreement will last three years and its main points are this:<br /><br />1. U.S. troops must move outside of cities by June 30, 2009<br />2. Withdrawal of all U.S. combat forces by the end of December 31, 2011<br />3. No immunity for private contractors<br />4. Some immunity for American soldiers (immunity if on base or on duty)<br />5. A failsafe in case Iraq collapses<br /><br />This plan is much better than either plan submitted by the two presidential contenders: McCain would stay too long (forever), Obama too short (16 months). This plan does not have the drawbacks of either.<br /><br /><a href="http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2008/08/about-those-sof.html">Michael Cohen</a> over at Democracy Arsenal and in the WSJ today argues that no immunity for private contractors will impede on their ability to do their duty properly in Iraq. That is not true for at least two reasons:<br />1. Any private contractors put on trial that didn’t really do anything wrong will not be convicted; U.S. pressure will assure to that.<br />2. Because the Iraqi government was so strong about putting this resolution in the agreement, the government gains legitimacy among the Iraqi people. Maliki, in particular, looks extra-nationalist and therefore extra popular.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />On Iran</span><br />I’ve noticed a lack of discussion about Iran on this. I’m waiting to see Iran’s reaction to this (and consequently the reaction of Muqtada al-Sadr). I'll keep y'all posted.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">On the Sunni Awakening</span><br /><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/22/world/middleeast/22sunni.html">The NYT is also reporting</a> that the Shiite-led Iraqi government is refusing to incorporate the 100,000 strong Sunni Awakening – Sunnis paid by the U.S. to take up arms against Al-Qaeda and other insurgents. It is vital that the al-Maliki government incorporates the Sunnis into the government. It is impossible to state the importance of this enough. If they are not incorporated, I fear a resumption of the civil war and a strengthening of the insurgency.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/xy94vjl2ffE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/xy94vjl2ffE/deal-would-have-us-out-of-iraq-by-2012.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/deal-would-have-us-out-of-iraq-by-2012.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-4243905833496407216Fri, 22 Aug 2008 12:42:00 +00002008-08-22T08:44:14.005-04:00'08RussiaToday's the Day........for Barack Obama's veep pick. I'm waiting for that text message from CNN Breaking News....<br /><br />In other news, readers might have noticed a lack of posts on the Russo-Georgian crisis, which might seem strange because (in case you haven't noticed) I love Russian issues. I've got an article coming up on that right now.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/jqasSqFMDe8" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/jqasSqFMDe8/todays-day.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/todays-day.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-3563790388966522748Mon, 18 Aug 2008 21:00:00 +00002008-08-18T17:01:23.437-04:00KashmirTerrorismU.S.What Musharraf's Resignation Means for IndiaIHT: <a href="http://iht.com/articles/2008/08/18/asia/pakistan.php">Musharraf quits as Pakistan’s president</a><br /><br />I wrote last week about <a href="http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/musharraf-impeached-new-us-policy-for.html">what a resignation by Musharraf would mean for the U.S. and our Afghanistan policy</a>. This week, from a different perspective: the perspective of India.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Background</span><br />India has recently seen an upturn in the amount of violence in Jammu and Kashmir. The territory is disputed between Pakistan and India – three wars have been fought over it, as well as both sides gaining nuclear weapons in the 60 year conflict. Some in the India-administered Kashmir would like to secede from India and join Pakistan, and vice versa. Recently, Muslims in Indian administrated Kashmir have increased protests. During some of these protests, a handful of protestors have been killed by Indian police. The protests rage on today.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />A power vacuum</span><br />India worries that with the resignation of Musharraf, there will be a power vacuum in Pakistan. That is very legitimate concern. It is likely the next elected president will be weak, at least temporarily if not permanently, and the Pakistani parliament is likely to break down into its feuding factions: the PPP (the party of Benazir Bhutto), the PML-N (the party of Nawaz Sharif), the Islamists, and everyone else.<br /><br />None of these parties is particularly competent; most all are corrupt. Corruption, however, is not India’s worry. India’s worry in the executive and legislative branch is Islamic fundamentalists. They could very much endanger stability and the peace process. As well, India has no one to talk to that would be in complete control.<br /><br />Yet, there is one larger worry: the powerful army and the Pakistani intelligence service, the ISI. The army helped fund militants in Kashmir that sparked the 1998 almost-all-out war between Pakistan and India. The ISI has always trained militants as well, and is believed to have been involved in the recent bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul.<br /><br />The last comment I have is this: the U.S. and India still have ongoing talks about a nuclear power deal for India.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/9nUPCgxItBk" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/9nUPCgxItBk/what-musharrafs-resignation-means-for.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/what-musharrafs-resignation-means-for.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-5279610165390205195Sat, 16 Aug 2008 02:36:00 +00002008-08-15T22:37:45.444-04:00Blog Action Day 2008 - PovertySo <a href="http://blogactionday.org">Blog Action Day 2008</a> has officially launched - the theme this year is poverty. Check it out.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/B37dA5D6x5M" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/B37dA5D6x5M/blog-action-day-2008-poverty.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/blog-action-day-2008-poverty.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-7848910373349119002Wed, 13 Aug 2008 22:28:00 +00002008-08-13T18:29:47.087-04:00Now a Contributor at...<a href=”http://www.nationalrepublicrat.com”><img src=”http://www.nationalrepublicrat.com/Images/button3_new_black.gif”></a><br /><br />I've joined the legion of contributors at <a href="http://nationalrepubicrat.com">NationalRepublicrat.com</a>. Check it out.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/uzReq4uJ8ZU" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/uzReq4uJ8ZU/now-contributor-at.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)1http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/now-contributor-at.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-2213653110611535427Sat, 09 Aug 2008 02:12:00 +00002008-08-08T22:22:47.217-04:00Middle EastTerrorismU.S.Musharraf Impeached: A New U.S. Policy for Pakistan<span style="font-style: italic;">Note: this article was written semi-in a rush, because of the fact that in the middle of writing the article, news of war in South Ossetia broke out</span><br /><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSISL15267920080807">Pakistan coalition to move to impeach Musharraf</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Background<br /></span>Pakistan is split between four factions:<br />1. The ISI (the Pakistani CIA)<br />2. The army/President Musharraf<br />3. The PPP (the party of Benazir Bhutto)<br />4. The PML-N (the party of Nawaz Sharif)<br /><br />The army, the PPP, and the PML-N have all been in control at one time or another in the past 20 years. All have been relatively ineffective and corrupt. The current alliance is the populist PPP and PML-N in the parliament against the U.S. supported President Musharraf. The parliament made a truce with terrorists who live in the largely unregulated North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The truce was what the majority of Pakistanis wanted, but neither the U.S. nor Musharraf supported it. The truce has since broken down almost completely.<br /><br />Now, the PPP and the PML-N in parliament is trying to impeach Musharraf.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />Consequences</span><br />The first, most obvious consequence of the impeachment will be further destabilization of the region. With the situation in Afghanistan at the point that it is, the impeachment should be of grave concern to the West, and America especially. Furthermore, the destabilization will not be limited to just Pakistan and Afghanistan: it will affect the Middle East as well.<br /><br />Other than destabilization, the other (more) serious consequence of the impeachment is the affect on the War on Terror. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban already operate out of the NWFP in Afghanistan at will. If Musharraf is taken out of office, it can be assured that the new president will be softer on terror, which is exactly what we DON’T need right now.<br /><br />Luckily, it is unlikely the impeachment will be successful. However, Musharraf has said before that he would step down if impeached. Hopefully he will not follow through with that statement.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">U.S. policy</span><br />None of this should have happened. We should never have relied so heavily on an ineffective dictatorship. This is the price we have to pay. Lessoned learned: don’t cozy up with dictatorships.<br /><br />The good news is that this could be helpful in the long term. It could stop a lot of potential terrorists from becoming terrorists by (a) defusing anti-American sentiment and (b) having the potential terrorists feel like they have a say in their government. Alternatively, it could not. The brief spike in terrorist activity could outlast the long term effects mentioned above.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Non-military aid</span><br />So, what should U.S. policy be? No matter who is in power, there is one simple effective step that can be taken: reorganizing aid to Pakistan. Islamabad has squandered billions in military aid. Over $7 billion in aid has been ineffectively used in the fight against terrorists and the rest has been spent on buying next-gen fighter planes for use against India.<br /><br />A better use for aid would be in infrastructure: building roads, schools, hospitals, electrical lines and water lines. Of course, military aid would still most definitely be necessary. However, American aid to Pakistan needs to be more for the people of Pakistan, rather than the Pakistani military.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/DKNZmARgkiQ" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/DKNZmARgkiQ/musharraf-impeached-new-us-policy-for.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)2http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/musharraf-impeached-new-us-policy-for.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-5534228518151531370Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:26:00 +00002008-08-06T22:29:29.216-04:00'08Alternative EnergyGlobal WarmingU.S.My bad...I'd officially like to withdraw my endorsement of Obama's oil windfall tax. After further consideration (and a look at history), I've decided a windfall tax would not be effective.<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/x_Nh-0WWTRI" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/x_Nh-0WWTRI/my-bad.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)2http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/08/my-bad.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-7404781931594227772Wed, 30 Jul 2008 16:54:00 +00002008-07-30T12:56:47.354-04:00LawMiddle EastA Victory for DemocracyReuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL08414220080730?sp=true">Turkish court rules against closing AK Party</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Background</span><br />The <a href="http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/court-annuls-turkish-scarf-reform-and.html">Justice and Development Party of Turkey, the AKP</a>, was re-elected last year with 47% of the vote. Secularists, mostly in the military, have since repeatedly charged the party and its members of having an Islamist agenda and of trying to introducing Sharia law. The AKP, for obvious reasons, has consistently denied that charge. More recently, a group of secular Turks were arrested for planning a coup to overthrow the AK government.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />A good decision</span><br />The model of secularism and democracy in the Middle East, Ataturk’s Turkey, was almost dealt a huge blow today. Thankfully, Turkey’s Constitutional Court made the right decision today by not banning the AK Party. <br /><br />In contrast to what one might expect, the less secular AKP is more democratic and liberal than the most secular parties of Turkey. In fact, the AKP has decreased censorship, expanded women’s rights, and reached out to minorities. <br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />The fight is not over</span><br />The fight is not over. The case today was won by only one vote (6 to 5, 7 votes were needed) – 8 of the court’s 11 justices are secularists. As well, the court did agree to impose financial restrictions on the AKP (state funding for the party was cut in half).<br /><br />And don’t think the secularists have given up. Military intervention is always a possibility, but what are more likely are attempts by secularists to slowly remove the AKP’s influence from public society.<br /><br />And as <a href="http://fpwatch.blogspot.com/2008/07/slouching-toward-disaster-in-turkey.html">Howard Eissenstat points out</a>, “If liberalization and parliamentary democracy cannot deliver on basic issues, Turkey’s devout, like its military, may opt for a harder path.”<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=YQRlgCID"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=8UTCfo4E"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=8UTCfo4E" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=2bs50mrA"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=2bs50mrA" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=ZZVKv9wy"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=ZZVKv9wy" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/5rjoX3aU5PE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/5rjoX3aU5PE/victory-for-democracy.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)1http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/07/victory-for-democracy.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-8291008179794555943Mon, 28 Jul 2008 22:50:00 +00002008-07-28T18:50:36.216-04:00....And we're backHope you didn't miss us.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=Cu844BRF"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=VXbe4kvo"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=VXbe4kvo" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=CDiIIDxr"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=CDiIIDxr" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=H3Igw2Lj"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=H3Igw2Lj" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/X_sQ7VaNwgE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/X_sQ7VaNwgE/and-were-back.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)1http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/07/and-were-back.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-6743653862186089501Sat, 28 Jun 2008 02:22:00 +00002008-06-27T22:22:43.253-04:00Site NewsInformation for all feed subscribers: There'll be no new articles for the next 4 weeks. After that, regular daily posting will resume, better than ever.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=lyvWnBme"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=BEnlGUZk"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=BEnlGUZk" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=M8HaOR0O"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=M8HaOR0O" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=nhm5eCma"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=nhm5eCma" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/sPGroDtcRSY" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/sPGroDtcRSY/site-news.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)5http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/site-news.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-6939432635893031669Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:21:00 +00002008-06-26T21:22:35.705-04:00ChinaIranNorth KoreaRussiaU.S.China, Iran, and the Denuclearization of North KoreaIHT: <a href="http://iht.com/articles/2008/06/26/asia/nuclear.php">U.S. to remove North Korea from terror list</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Background</span><br />As part of a denuclearization deal, North Korea today handed over 60 pages of information on its nuclear power and nuclear weapons program. The move was an important step in the process of the dismantlement of the North’s nuclear program. In return, President Bush announced that his administration would remove the country from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and end some sanctions ‘symbolically’. <br /><br />As said above, this action was only a part of a major denuclearization deal. The agreement came as a result of direct negotiations with North Korea in early 2007 under a new policy from the Bush Administration. The previous policy had limited engagement with North Korea, and stressed isolation and sanctions. However, in 2006, the President defied hawks in his administration and enacted a new policy towards the North, launching full fledged talks with North Korea: 6 party negotiations between North Korea, the host China, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and Russia. North Korea was slow with following through on its promises, but it eventually came through with today’s declaration of plutonium capabilities, which will be verified by the United States in the coming weeks.<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Information not yet disclosed</span><br />Significantly, the North's declaration is not expected to disclose details on three critical points: the nuclear bombs the North has already produced; its alleged attempts to produce nuclear arms by secretly enriching uranium, which brought on the current crisis in 2002; and accusations that the North had helped Syria build a nuclear plant. <br /><br />These details need to be disclosed as the next step in the denuclearization process. The information, especially on Syria, is vital<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The role of China</span><br />From everything I’ve read, China has played a big role in getting Kim Jong-Il to agree to the denuclearization process. Some analysts have gone as far as to say that North Korea would not even have agreed to disarm if weren’t for Beijing. Let’s take a look at China’s motives for a second. Why would they be interested in getting rid of a key piece of leverage they could use against the United States? It comes down to regional stability. China is experiencing rapid economic growth, and it doesn’t want anything to slow it down. As well, Beijing doesn’t want anything to ruin its ‘coming out party’ at the Olympics in August. This has been seen even this week when China allowed a Japanese naval vessel to dock at its ports for the first time since WWII. <br /><br />Moral of the story: one major reason denuclearization in North Korea has been possible is because of China.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">The problem with denuclearization in Iran</span><br />North Korea shows us two problems with American policy towards Iran. One, we are not negotiating with the Iranian regime. Two, we have no partner in the region that has significant leverage over Tehran. Some might say, hey, Saudi Arabia could pressure Iran. But why would Riyadh want to? Sure, the country wants to prevent any new wars in the region that might disrupt their oil shipments. But besides that, tensions in the region are only good for Saudi Arabia. U.S.-Iranian tensions have only helped send oil prices to new highs. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">So, why does it matter?</span><br />Well, it doesn’t really. I just wanted to point that out. But there is one significant lesson we can take from the North Korean denuclearization: negotiations work.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=gcWHeLrg"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=31sC3Egx"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=31sC3Egx" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=iI36hd65"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=iI36hd65" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=DVtTK64s"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=DVtTK64s" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/_134SO71xIg" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/_134SO71xIg/china-iran-and-denuclearization-of.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)8http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/china-iran-and-denuclearization-of.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-5265366477206553968Wed, 25 Jun 2008 01:50:00 +00002008-06-24T21:53:44.056-04:00Gaza Strip\West BankIranIsraelMiddle EastTerrorismPrisoner Swap with Hezbollah, Truce in Gaza - Rumblings in the Middle EastCNN: <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/06/24/israel.hezbollah/index.html">Israeli Cabinet to consider swap with Hezbollah</a><br />BBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7470530.stm">Rockets ‘violated Gaza ceasefire’</a><br />Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUKL1748248120080617">More indirect Israel, Syria talks in July</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Background</span><br />Israel has been negotiating on two and a half fronts recently. The first front is in the Palestinian territories, but specifically with Hamas in Gaza. The second and a half negotiations were with Hezbollah/Lebanon along with Syria.<br /><br />Negotiations with Hamas have been ongoing since the 2006 abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and after the 2007 coup in which Hamas ousted its rival Fatah and took over the Gaza Strip. The eventual result was a ceasefire for Gaza which began Thursday. No one expected the truce to last long, however. That assertion was only confirmed today when Islamic Jihad militants launched rockets into southern Israel in retaliation for an Israeli air strike in the West Bank, which, if you don’t remember, is not part of the truce. <br /><br />The second front has been much more interesting, not to mention more peaceful (albeit just for now, but we’ll get into that later). Israel and Syria have finally gotten around to having negotiations over the disputed Golan Heights that Israel captured in the 6 Day War. The talks, which are being mediated by the Turks, have not been completely endorsed by the U.S., which has complicated things, and even led one Israeli general to declare that there will be no deal with Syria until George Bush is out of office.<br /><br />On the other half of that negotiating front is Lebanon and Hezbollah – Israel has opened up negotiations with both. Why include Lebanon/Hezbollah and Syria together? There can be no peace between Israel and Syria without involving Lebanon and Hezbollah, and there can be no peace between Israel and Hezbollah without involving Syria. Besides, Syria still has de facto control over many parts of the country. This is for many political, religious, and economic reasons, but it is also because Syria has a big hand in the actions of Hezbollah. Well, it appears Syria has given the go ahead for some peace between Israel and Hezbollah: a prisoner swap. Two soldiers captured in 2006 by Hezbollah would be traded for a rumored five Hezbollah guerrillas.<br /><br />So, to sum up an unnecessarily long background:<br />- Israel is negotiating with Hamas for peace in Gaza and the return of a captured soldier<br />- Israel is negotiating with Syria over a peace agreement on the Golan Heights<br />- Israel is negotiating with Hezbollah, which is supported by Syria, for the return of two captured Israeli soldiers<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Peace in Gaza</span><br />One thing not mentioned above was the almost imminent incursion that would have surely taken place if it hadn’t been for the ceasefire. Rocket fire had gone on for far too long without the Israeli government truly responding for most Israelis tastes. Therefore, Israel should take this truce as an opportunity to do three things: (a) prepare its military, if necessary, for an incursion; (b) bolster Fatah in the West Bank; (c) open up final peace negotiations with Hamas. If those negotiations failed, and rocket attacks resumed, options a and b would be ready for retaliation against Hamas<br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Peace in Lebanon</span><br />The prisoner swap should go through, and the United States needs to endorse a peace deal between Syria and Israel. Peace is in the interests of all the above countries – Israel would like peace and its ruling politicians any victories; a deal on the Golan Heights has been said to be the ‘number one foreign policy issue’ for Syria; and a peace deal between Israel and Syria would undermine American archenemy Iran.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Political turmoil in Israel</span><br />The ruling coalition in Israel has been hit by a number of corruption scandals. Early elections seem likely. However, early elections could put more extreme parties, including the Likud party of right wing hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu. Any successes in Lebanon, Syria, or the Palestinian territories would greatly bolster the current, moderate administration. That would be in our best interests.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=LHkxVtH1"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=rfgzrfud"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=rfgzrfud" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=1rNGo9b6"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=1rNGo9b6" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=lhhxbEVF"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=lhhxbEVF" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/Ptpa8vZ2IwE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/Ptpa8vZ2IwE/prisoner-swap-with-hezbollah-truce-in.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/prisoner-swap-with-hezbollah-truce-in.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-1893951016157229957Thu, 19 Jun 2008 00:17:00 +00002008-06-18T20:18:30.248-04:00europe/e.u.IranIraqMiddle EastTerrorismU.S.Shiites Blamed for Bombing of Other Shiites - Iran?Reuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL1549095220080618">U.S. blames Shi'ite group ... for bombing and killing of 63 Shiites</a><br /><br />Sure, it's easy to see they're trying to stir up sectarian violence. But if your sect is that important, why not blow up some Sunnis instead of your own Shiites? 3 possibilities:<br /><br />1. It was accident.<br />2. Religion isn't as important in Iraq as it's made out to be. Or maybe the situation has evolved to that state. <br />3. The special Shiite cell was from Iran and didn't care so much for Iraqi Shiites.<br /><br />Option 3 seems the most likely, for several reasons. See: <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/18/world/middleeast/18prexy.html">Europe announces new Iranian sanctions during Bush visit</a><div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=QJRLzS9p"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=3ArWrgnJ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=3ArWrgnJ" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=IiKWK2JB"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=IiKWK2JB" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=qFHExj9s"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=qFHExj9s" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/OooX8Zv9nSE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/OooX8Zv9nSE/shiites-blamed-for-bombing-of-other.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/shiites-blamed-for-bombing-of-other.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-3501293788126262535Fri, 13 Jun 2008 02:01:00 +00002008-06-12T22:04:31.836-04:00Middle EastU.S.Good News Around the WorldReuters: <a href="http://www.blogger.com/Donors%20pledge%20around%20$20%20billion%20for%20Afghanistan">Donors pledge around $20 billion for Afghanistan</a><br /><br />BBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7451139.stm">Major Guantanamo setback for Bush</a><br /><br />Sorry for the lame post, but not much to say here but: good.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=OyOqYrWc"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=pWK8v6SX"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=pWK8v6SX" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=nFMEoYTw"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=nFMEoYTw" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=JkPYyJfc"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=JkPYyJfc" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/ght7ZepvoUM" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/ght7ZepvoUM/good-news-around-world.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)3http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/good-news-around-world.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-1368690483515907472Mon, 09 Jun 2008 21:29:00 +00002008-06-09T17:31:46.874-04:00'08Alternative EnergyGlobal WarmingOil Windfall Tax: A Good IdeaReuters: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN3144368520080609?sp=true">Obama backs oil profits tax<br /></a><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Background</span><br />After gas prices skyrocketed pass $4 last week, and as they continue to head up this week, some may have been hoping for a quick fix in the style of the (completely useless) economic stimulus some weeks ago. In response to those concerns today, Obama pledged to raise taxes on windfall oil profits if elected. This position would be politically unsustainable for the simple reason that nobody wants new taxes in a time of an economic downturn, so Obama appended to his position that he would "use the money to help families pay for their skyrocketing energy costs and other bills."<br /><br />Several weeks ago, a bill was blocked by Republican opposition that would have repealed tax cuts for oil companies and instead used the 10-billion-something-dollars to pay for tax rebates for renewable energy.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;"><br />A good idea</span><br />If the plan Obama has proposed was enacted in coordination with the repeal of tax cuts, it would be a good move for the economy of the U.S., our long term safety, and our long term economic outlook. The windfall tax profit would have help boost the economy through its profits, but, as well, would raise gas prices, as would the repeal of tax cuts. Though that may damage the economy in the short run, in the long run, it would save much time in effort. First, if gas prices were higher, hybrids, all electric cars, and renewable energy would look much more attractive to the average consumer. Second, if some of the pain of fighting global warming is felt now, it won’t be felt later, when it could come in a large burst after the approval of a cap and trade program.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=kwkqQD4q"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=JJbaGR2j"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=JJbaGR2j" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=M1Ai3GIQ"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=M1Ai3GIQ" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=i5WNlwvc"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=i5WNlwvc" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/LNF8HQGABfE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/LNF8HQGABfE/oil-windfall-tax-good-idea.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)5http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/oil-windfall-tax-good-idea.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-1504303929222315828Thu, 05 Jun 2008 23:09:00 +00002008-06-05T19:10:25.713-04:00Middle EastCourt Annuls Turkish Scarf Reform and the Trial of the AKPBBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7438348.stm">Court annuls Turkish scarf reform</a><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;"><br />Background</span><br />1918: The Ottoman Empire had crumbled. In its place was a much smaller, much weaker, much poorer state called ‘Turkey’. The nation was in chaos. Soon, a strong leader emerged: Ataturk. Cut through the crap and you will find Ataturk pushed through many reforms that westernized Turkey and made the country probably the most successful in the region, but most importantly for us, took Islam out of public life. The caliphate was ended, women were given more rights, and Ataturk even moved the Muslim holy day from Friday to Sunday.<br /><br />In recent years, there has been a burst of political Islam in Turkey. The ruling AK Party is relatively conservative and religious, but no where near the extent as seen in Saudi Arabia, Iran or Iraq. One of the more controversial laws passed under the AK Party was a law that eased the ban on headscarves being worn by women at universities. The government argued that a headscarf ban stops many girls being educated; it is apparent, however, the Constitutional Court disagreed.<br /><br />In a separate court case, a special prosecutor has challenged the secularism and therefore the legality of the existence of the AK Party. If the AK Party is banned, Turkey could be sent in to turmoil, as the party controls over 340 of the 550 Turkish parliamentary seats and controls the prime ministership and the presidency. <br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Secularism and the AKP</span><br />The overturn of the law is a victory for secularism in Turkey; however, the case against the AK Party is ludicrous. The disbandment of the AKP would empower the army, which is not the institution of freedom, especially in Turkey, to say the least. The AKP has pursued liberal policies, often times more liberal than those of the more secular parties. In fact, between 1996 and 2007, the Turkish public's desire for Sharia law went from 19% to 8%. As well, the end of the AK Party would mean chaos for Ankara. With a loss of such a huge number of in-office experienced officials could be permanently devastating.<br /><br />It will suffice to say that the Constitutional Court of Turkey would be making a grave mistake if they were to ban the AK Party.<div class="feedflare">
<a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=UPsbo1pU"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?d=41" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=fK2OGWb8"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=fK2OGWb8" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=MTAKbphl"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=MTAKbphl" border="0"></img></a> <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?a=n9WiZDhr"><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~f/ThoughtsOnTheWorld?i=n9WiZDhr" border="0"></img></a>
</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/owEc95Il2Is" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/owEc95Il2Is/court-annuls-turkish-scarf-reform-and.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)0http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/court-annuls-turkish-scarf-reform-and.htmltag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33767543.post-4515545494162184373Wed, 04 Jun 2008 23:10:00 +00002008-06-04T19:13:10.193-04:00AfricaDarfurAnother North-South Sudanese Conflict?BBC: <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7435012.stm">Armies ‘head for central Sudan’</a><br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">Background</span><br />Sudan has been a nation of conflict ever since it gained independence from Great Britain. First, it was the north versus the south. The south, which is mostly Christian and animistic, fought two incredibly bloody civil wars to gain autonomy from the government-controlling, Sharia law-imposing, Muslim and ‘more Arab’ north. The conflict finally ended in 2005 after the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed, giving the South more autonomy and the possibility of secession after a referendum in 2011. However, more recently, genocide backed by Khartoum in the western region of Sudan, Darfur, has received much more media attention. That does not mean the conflict between the North and South did not continue – far from it.<br /><br />Recent escalations have occurred after new fighting in Abyei, an oil rich region. Control over the region has been a major point of conflict between the North and the South since the peace agreement was signed.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">What can be done?</span><br />Well, not a lot, sadly. Buy a hybrid!<div class="feedflare">
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</div><img src="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~4/A-4CJEz7MyE" height="1" width="1" alt=""/>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/ThoughtsOnTheWorld/~3/A-4CJEz7MyE/another-north-south-sudanese-conflict.htmlnoreply@blogger.com (Simmons)1http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2008/06/another-north-south-sudanese-conflict.html