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The heavier rains have begun. Glad the foliage was great this week; these winds will have a lot of leaves on the ground by Sunday.

Yeah they will clean house on my property. My maples are peaking. Sycamore and Tulip are still greenish. I have huge trees for a small south shore property.

In the city on campus we are about a week later and the large red oaks are just showing color but should retain most of their leaves through this wind event. Should be like a blizzard of leaves most places tomorrow afternoon.

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severe wx threat looks pretty legit this evening from philly/jersey into southern new england as warm advection increases ahead of the developing surface low. nose of 50kt+ llj bringing in up to 1000 units of mucape, with some good (mostly speed) shear down low. at the very least, there ought to be a few heavy showers in the vicinity of nyc around 11. hi-res in good agreement on that. soundings would also support a few thunderstorms in the region. linear convection currently near the dc area will also be worth watching as the low passes just n/w after midnight.

this pattern is impressive. the gradient between the tn valley low and the eternally beefy west atlantic ridge is setting jetstream records at 250mb this evening.

the PIT balloon observed 181kt at 250mb on the 00z sounding tonight, something only ever exceeded before in january (since ~1952).

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Tornado warnings in effect for a large area of eastern PA right now. 2.66” so far this evening. The triggering mechanism seems to be related to the front which is located just south of me. All kinds of rotation on radar right now.

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The front looks to be stalled along the I-78 / I-287 / 202 corridor from about Quakertown to Clinton to Far Hills and to the north and east. There is a 10 degree temp difference across the front right now. I am at 56 now and much of NJ is in the 60’s. That would seem to be the area most at risk for a spin up over the next hour or two.

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
NJC019-021-023-035-PAC017-030430-
/O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0010.181103T0349Z-181103T0430Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1149 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2018
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
Northwestern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
North central Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
Central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
* Until 1230 AM EDT.
* At 1149 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Gardenville, or 20 miles northwest of
Trenton, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Tornado.
SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.
* This dangerous storm will be near...
Byram and Lumberville around 1155 PM EDT.
New Hope, Stockton and Erwinna around 1200 AM EDT.
Sergeantsville around 1205 AM EDT.
Sand Brook around 1210 AM EDT.
Flemington around 1215 AM EDT.
Cloverhill around 1220 AM EDT.
Belle Mead around 1225 AM EDT.
Somerville, Bridgewater, Manville, Flagtown and White House
Station around 1230 AM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include South
Bound Brook, Raritan, Lambertville and Bernardsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4053 7446 4025 7511 4040 7524 4073 7470
4074 7465
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 236DEG 32KT 4037 7510
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

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I hate this crap, it's like "FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR YOUR AREA" except the AREA is 25 miles away.

3 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That happened to me an hour ago. These warnings are covering a large area.

We're well on the periphery of this.

I don't really blame the people managing this, I know enough about weather to know I'm not in danger. It's basically for people who decide to go out driving, at least for my area. For these storms I'm not even sure we're getting rain.

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Best in years out here as well. Its like everythings peaking at the same time

definitely best in maybe 20 years....we didnt have the typical dry hot weather leading up to October...we had so many cloudy moist days from late August through September which was so unusual it delayed everything especially since then we got warm cloudy weather to start October. Hitting peak now but I think there will still be some great color through next week. We were about 3 weeks behind on leaf color last week but caught up to maybe a week behind now