Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Recent Politics in Andhra Pradesh

Almost all the news papers are writing differently on the situations that can happen, if there is a motion of confidence/no-confidence. After reading the news on this in many news papers, I felt pity on the reporters for their lack of knowledge on the constitution.

The present situation in A.P. is very interesting.

Jagan MLAs are asking Congress government to have vote of confidence.

Congress Party is saying, if anybody wants, they can call for vote of no-confidence.

TDP is saying, they will not put vote of no-confidence, just because somebody has asked.

Everybody is blaming on others. Many news papers/channels are not giving correct analysis.

Why will a party that is in power call for vote of confidence or vote of no-confidence? They will never, and there is no need to ask them. Congress does not need to prove their majority. If others want, they have to call for it.

To have a vote of confidence, the MLAs have to request the Governor saying that, the government does not have enough majority, and convince him. Traditionally, the MLAs give signed letters to the Governor. Generally, they do this, if they can get support of more than 130-140 MLAs.

To have a vote of no-confidence, atleast 40 MLAs have to give notice to the speaker, and then the speaker will call for vote of no-confidence. If less no.of MLAs give notice to the speaker, then it is at the speaker's discretion, and most probably, it would be ignored.

In the present circumstances, it is not possible to call for vote of confidence, since, getting 130 MLAs together is not possible.

The unofficial news is, Jagan has a support of around 25 MLAs. Jagan's close associates say, they have the support of 50 MLAs or so. If they have support of 50 MLAs, then they can call for vote of no-confidence. But, the issue is, once the MLAs give notice to the speaker, they would come under anti-defection law. If the speaker wants, he can disqualify them before the vote of no-confidence. If the speaker disqualifies those MLAs, then the government can easily defeat the vote of no-confidence. That's why Jagan MLAs cannot move forward for vote of no-confidence.

During the vote of no-confidence, if Jagan MLAs vote against Congress party, then they would fall under anti-defection law, but only after the voting. Their vote would still be valid. If the government falls, there is no use of that law. If the government wins, then Jagan's MLAs would lose their MLA seats.

Congress party is planning to use anti-defection law on the present MLAs who are with Jagan. But, it will not be so easy. Just a press statement or talking negatively may not warrant for anti-defection law. The member has to disobey the whip, or resign from the political party, or should do something tangible which proves that he/she voluntarily left the party, and did not leave because he/she was asked to leave. Even if those MLAs are disqualified, it is difficult to win in the court.

TDP has 92 MLAs and it can call for vote of no-confidence, and no other party can call, because, other parties do not have enough no.of MLAs.

Technically, only Chandrababu can issue for vote of no-confidence. Probably, he is not confident that, vote of no-confidence will win, because PRP and MIM are ready to support Congress. Both Congress and Jagan are experts in buying MLAs. If all those happen, there is no guarantee that, vote of no-confidence will win. Going by the previous track record, I am sure, Chandrababu is looking for the right time to take the next step.

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