Marine Weather and TidesSeldovia, AK

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:18AM

Sunset 6:07PM

Friday February 22, 2019 7:04 AM AKST (16:04 UTC)

Moonrise 10:12PM

Moonset 8:54AM

Illumination 89%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Analysis and upper levels
The main feature to note is a ridge that spreads from the bering
sea to the western gulf of alaska. At the mid-levels cold air is
advecting over the mainland around the ridge. With this cold air
advection, northerly offshore flow dominates mainland alaska. To
the west of the ridge, southerly flow is pushing warm, moist air
over the western aleutians. At the surface, an occluded front is
finishing its progression through the gulf and intensifying the
offshore flow through southcentral. The offshore flow is enhancing
gusty conditions through thompson pass, prince william sound and
the western gulf. A nearly stationary surface high pressure ridge
is keeping much of southcentral clear and dry. To the west of the
ridge however, a large swath of clouds can be observed in
satellite imagery over the western aleutians. This region is
associated with the remnants of a strong low that progressed
through the bering yesterday. Gusty conditions persist through
the bering and western aleutians. The next bering storm is
advancing from the north pacific towards the central aleutians
today.

Model discussion
Numerical models are in good agreement through Saturday. At that
point, models begin to diverge as a north pacific low moves
into the southern bering on Saturday morning. At this point, the
american models are moving faster while the ECMWF and canadian
trail behind through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, the
models diverge further with a large spread between the solutions.

The american solutions, once again, are producing stronger winds
through Sunday while the ec and canadian, while fairly strong
themselves, are depicting this storm slightly weaker.

Aviation
Panc...VFR conditions and light winds will persist as high
pressure builds through the area. The chance of fog becomes higher
Friday evening. Clear skies through the day, temperature drops
overnight and calming winds will aid in the fog formation.

Short term forecast southcentral alaska (days 1 through 3)
(tonight through Sunday)
outflow winds will slowly diminish across the eastern kenai
peninsula and north gulf coast through this afternoon. Although
considerably weaker, high pressure and cold air inland will
sustain outflow winds across the north gulf coast. Stratus and
fog become the main weather challenge tonight through Saturday
night as the upper ridge builds over southcentral. Fog will likely
develop over interior valleys, along cook inlet, and across knik
and turnagain arm during the overnight hours and could persist
into the late morning to early afternoon hours. Otherwise,
generally fair skies and cooler temperatures are expected over the
next couple of days.

Short term forecast southwest alaska (days 1 and 2 Friday
through Saturday night)...

a front associated with a departing low moving over siberia will
continue to bring scattered snow showers to coastal areas along
the kuskokwim delta through the morning. Meanwhile, a ridge
building over the gulf will favorably influence conditions across
the akpen and areas further inland through this evening. This will
allow for generally quiet conditions and mostly clear skies,
though areas of patchy fog are likely for low lying areas across
bristol bay and the lower kuskokwim valley.

A second north pacific low moves into the bering this evening
bringing a large area of moist southerly flow to the eastern
bering. This front will slowly push eastward over southwest for
Saturday morning, bringing precipitation across the area for
Saturday evening. Temperatures will be warm enough for rain across
the akpen while a rain snow mix or wet snow will be possible
along the northern kuskokwim delta coast.

a departing low continues to influence the bering with a lingering
occluded front oriented north to south over the pribilofs. This
front continues to advect warm southerly flow over the southern
bering. In its wake, a second low forms along a fertile
baroclinic zone in the north pacific. This second gale force low
will move over the western aleutians this afternoon, continuing to
advect warm southerly flow and moisture across the bering. By
Saturday morning, the low moves northward and is centered
northwest of saint paul island. Southerly gales persist,
continuing the stream of warm moist air into the eastern bering.

As the low lifts northward out of the bering Sat evening, its
associated front pushes eastward. Meanwhile, cold air moves in
over the western bering as a weak ridge attempts to build over the
central aleutians. This attempt is quickly stifled by an incoming
storm force low, bound for the western aleutians for Sunday.

Marine (days 3 through 5)
Once again, the main area of active weather with strong wind will
be over the bering sea Sunday through Tuesday. Sunday begins with
a ridge extending across the eastern bering sea with a large
strong storm crossing the western aleutians. This storm should
pack storm force winds in advance of it with the potential for a
brief period of hurricane force winds possible in the central to
western aleutians as well as the western bering sea offshore
zones. By Monday the low weakens but we should still see some
storm force winds close in to the low over the central bering sea
with gales across much of the eastern bering sea to the southwest
coast. By Tuesday, this storm continues its northward trek as yet
another gale to storm force low crosses the western and central
aleutians.

Meanwhile the gulf of alaska remains under high pressure and we
are not anticipating any significant wind for the gulf region
Sunday through Tuesday.

Long term forecast (days 3 through 7)
For the extended period, Sunday through Saturday, high pressure
over the gulf of alaska and southern mainland will result in
benign conditions for the southern mainland. The large upper level
high will likely lead to the development of inversions through
southcentral and may result in more foggy conditions. Also, we
are expecting very warm 850 mb (~5000 ft) temperatures over the
southern mainland that could result in some unseasonably warm
temperatures along with large diurnal fluctuations for areas that
aren't trapped under an inversion. The southwest mainland will
see temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal with
persistent southwesterly flow through the week.

Out west, we have a very active pattern on tap for next week. We
start off with a strong storm to hurricane force low over the
western bering and western aleutians that treks north across the
bering as a ridge over the eastern bering gets pushed east over
the mainland. After this low moves out of the bering, another
strong storm force low is on tap for the western and central
aleutians. By the later half of the week the lows are a bit weaker
as they trek across the aleutians and bering sea. A weak ridge
pokes up across the central aleutians to the eastern bering sea
Friday. Lastly, another storm force low will impact the western
aleutians and western bering sea Saturday.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of AlaskaEDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Disclaimer:The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.