KENTUCKY DERBY: Time to start finding the long shots

The road to the Kentucky Derby has been an interesting one, with as many as six or seven horses performing well enough in their prep races to be considered favorites for the May 5 race.

But like in past years, in a race where favorites tend to come up short, my focus the final two weeks leading up to the Run for the Roses is to find that long shot who can pull off the upset and return a decent payoff.

The event that changed the direction of this year's Kentucky Derby was overwhelming favorite Union Rags finishing third last time out in the Florida Derby. After a huge win in his previous start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream, he was considered the undisputed Kentucky Derby favorite. After the Florida Derby on March 31, some handicappers are questioning if he can last the Kentucky Derby distance of 1¼ miles.

Horses coming off strong efforts in their final Kentucky Derby prep races include Arkansas Derby winner Bodemeister, Wood Memorial winner Gemologist, Blue Grass Stakes winner Dullahan and second-place finisher Hansen, and Santa Anita Derby winner I'll Have Another and runner-up Creative Cause. A case can be made for any of these horses to be the betting favorite on Derby Day.

So who has a shot to pull off an upset?

Sure it's still early and post position draws are very important, but there are two horses I'm keying on now.

One horse that I don't believe can be ignored is Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy. He has a solid pedigree with his sire A.P. Indy and dam Take Charge Lady and is a perfect fit for veteran jockey Calvin Borel -- a front-runner who is also tactical.

In the Florida Derby he used his early speed to take a quick lead, hug the rail and go wire-to-wire for the win. While a Florida Derby win would tend to knock down the odds of any horse, with the above horses I mentioned in the mix, this horse should be go off close to double-digit odds, even with Borel aboard. In the Daily Racing Form's Kentucky Derby Top 20 list, he is listed as an early 15-1 long shot.

Borel may find it hard to get the early lead with several front-running horses expected to run. But Borel will surely find the rail and put his horse in position to make at least one solid run.

Another horse that intrigues me is Daddy Long Legs, who recently won the 1 3/16-mile United Arab Emirates Derby on March 31. This horse had a horrible race in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last fall, finishing 12th and never firing in the race.

But in the UAE Derby he showed the kind of tactical run that wins the Kentucky Derby, stalking in second place behind Helmet and making a big move heading into the home stretch. Once in the home stretch he finished strong and showed the kind of stamina needed to win the 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby.

While I usually shy away from horses that ship in from Dubai, one of these days one of those horses will probably win the Derby. This horse lacks some foundation, but he does have a solid trainer with Aidan O'Brien and at this early stage has a shot.

LACIE SLEW UPDATE

Lacie Slew, owned by Ralph Durante and John Buckley of North Haven, recently competed in the Rampart Stakes, a Grade 3 Stakes race at Gulfstream Park, on March 31. Lacie Slew ended up fourth, faltering a bit leaving the far turn. Awesome Maria won.

"Lacie came out of the race fine," Durante said. "They had the track extremely fast for the Florida Derby, speed favoring, and that's not Lacie's style. Awesome Maria ran great and I don't feel she could have beat her. But I thought we had a shot for second."

Other horses getting ready to hit the track again for the Durante-Buckley Stable are Sweet N Sour Nina, Blackwell and Bellaridge.

HANDICAPPING CONTEST

The first of four Connecticut Off-Track handicapping contests kicks off Saturday with a $10,000 event and a first-place prize of $5,000. The beauty of these contests is they are free to enter.