I have some experience with the Chinese, did business with them in around 1995, learned a bit of language, visited. But I never bought into this China is Great, bubble. Somehow this "art" from China reinforces that idea. I guess "red china" is a reality based on the red toilets!? LOL

Plenty of powerful forces in the universe. Magnetic Storms, Gamma Rays, Neutrons flying faster than light (maybe), Sunspots and Magnetism. And the human ego, ignoring all that doesn't place humans at the center of the universe. Open your eyes, get away from the TV, get away from over reading blogs! Go hiking, clear your head. Take a moment to "Watch the thinker", there is a natural mechanism that occurs that causes us to "think continuously" because we believe that thinking is work and working is good, and in fact this overthinking obscures the reality in front of us. Give some non-thought to that, seriously.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

I hate to be so crude, but it is true.
So much excitement with the big triangle, and a down afternoon, everyone jumping on the bear wagon.

Been a good month, up 48% although was up 52% at one time. Hedging my puts with futures.

Now that I saw the put call in the slapping zone, I don't want to give back a great month.

This one posted on Daneric, I am pointing it out because of the exuberance, bearish type. Calling a small transcendence over the line a "break" and certainly, this simple patterns are known by trader and quant alike, and ESPECIALLY the Brits like to game patterns, ramp up before a downturn, and pretend a break before a ramp. This is not "a break" it might become a break, but flying in the face of super high put call, this is way more likely to be a fakeout, followed by a ramp.

The point is....the being wrong, and the exuberance, now lets see what happens!

We discussed earlier how such analysis can and often do lead to entrenched opinion which triggers Ego and leads to stubborn defence of one's losing position. It's also a point emphasized in A Taoist Tradercourse. Let me cite a quote from that course:

Much overcomplicated thinking obfuscates the simplicity and clarity of the realworld. Knowledge must be useful and practical.
...................

In comprehending all knowledge,can you renounce the mind?

In Taoist philosophy, there are two types of knowledge: useable knowledge that contributes to the achievement of a goal (daily contentment), and knowledge that does not. The only knowledge worth pursuing is the knowledge that serves the purpose. Our ability to adapt to changes in an environment is a double-edged sword. Our mind sometimes accepts external values without skepticism. These values often conflict with our core nature and represent dysfunctional knowledge. However, by using Taoist principles, we can accurately evaluate which knowledge is worth keeping and which should be discarded.

The amount of information surrounding the markets is mind-boggling. Some of it is useful in the process of decision-making and some serves no useful purpose at all. A trader carefully observes which information helps him navigate the markets and which wastes his time and adds to confusion. Practical usefulness measured by actual performance is a trader's criterion to evaluate which sources should be taken into account and which should be dismissed. A trader must avoid paralysis caused by endless and contradictive information flows.

If you ever catch yourself questioning simple trading approach merely because of its simplicity, ask yourself:Why are you trading?

This is a stark change in correlation, and may have only to do with Expiry, or something even bigger, and Expiry is big. It is important for HBB to steal quarters from the market at all time, every chance they get, that is why expiry is so important to them.

needless to say my puts are not liking this non-correlation but FX shorts are loving it. I think the Indices will catch up, but I need to really review the charts before getting too firm on that view.
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update-my charts are kind of in no-mans land, the SPX triangle is still in play.

The put call is kind of on the low side, especially from the Aug timeframe of whence it has been elevated.

Makana Explains Why He Sang Protest Song to APEC Leaders in Hawaii

Hawaiian guitarist Makana says he put his fears aside and listened to his heart when he chose to repeatedly sing his protest song, "We Are the Many," to world leaders gathered for an APEC dinner Saturday.

This other Hawaiian man was actually shot and killed by a 27 year old Federal agent in town for APEC, they were both on the street during late night party times, not anything to do with APEC or the agents job.

The agent was formerly a bean counter type, who through and intergovernmental job change, got to carry a gun. Local citizens of Hawaii NEVER get a concealed carry permit, yet a federal agent can fly in and carry a gun while he is out partying.

Word has it that the agent was not charged, and that he was whisked away on an airplane.

I would say this is a pretty solid volatility play, buying both puts and calls, and taking profits pretty fast, take 50% leave a runner in place and be ready to leave with a breakeven if the runner turns against you.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

We enjoy participating in the BPT blog when actively trading, they often post up patterns in real time. BPT lets Hawaii Trading occasionally post up some of their materials for free. Once in a while we also post up some specific trade ideas just as a sample, and usually BPT has 5 to 30 chart justified trade scenarios on their watchlists. The track record on these watchlist trades is amazingly good, usually with 80% to 90% winning trades. BUT many of the trade ideas are thinly traded, tickers you would not otherwise even run across, so in this rampy trade environment it is necessary to be able and willing to close out the trades quickly, or take a 50% profit and let the rest as a runner

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