Spread vs damage dropoff - consistency

Mathematically speaking, which one is more consistent when used as as a range limiting balance tool? I remember marbleduck talking about it once with relation to btk but I forgot the finer points. Please note that I'm not making or asking for a judgment on the value of consistency from a balance and gameplay standpoint.

If you rely on damage drop-off only, the results will always be the same from engagement to engagement at the same distance, but you are going to have BTK varying wildly with range.

Due to the nature of probability, spread can theoretically make you miss all your shots in one engagement, and hit all in an identical next engagement. Though, also due to probability, this isn't likely at all. But purely mathematically speaking, spread is the less consistent.

BTK variations will feel more inconsistent though. A guy can move a meter and suddenly take another bullet. Three meters: two.

Wanna help your team by sneaking through enemy territory to provide spawns? THIS IS NOT TEAMWORK FGT I HOPE YOU RUN OUT OF MOTION BALLS TOO EARLY TO BE SUCCESSFUL
Wanna be Javelin squad but only have two guys? BETTER NOT GET YOUR SOFLAM KILLED FGT THIS IS NOT TEAMWORK WITHOUT A SUPPORT DUDE DROPPING AMMO ON YOU EVERY 2 MINUTES

Due to the nature of probability, spread can theoretically make you miss all your shots in one engagement, and hit all in an identical next engagement.

Not quite true. If the engagement happens close enough (target covered entirely by minspread cone, maxspread cone, or somewhere in-between) some (or all!) shots are guaranteed to hit. This is without recoil of course, add recoil and you get even more ambiguity but the principle still holds.

Another nuance of the spread model is pacing or bursting. You can make your engagements way more consistent by slowing down your firing. Other times the ease and risk of longer bursts is worth it.

Overall the spread model has more nuances than a pure btk-model. With spread there are more factors to consider and learn (higher skill, IMO) than no spread, where the answer is always "hold down the trigger".