Chat with Rob Neyer

Rob Neyer

(2:01 PM)

Ahoy ahoy! I'll be answering questions for the next hour or so, and let's not waste any more of your valuable work time . . .

Rob Neyer

(2:01 PM)

Ahoy ahoy! I'll be answering questions for the next hour or so, and let's not waste any more of your valuable work time . . .

Jon (Arlington, VA)

Rob, recently you have written that Portland would be a good location for the Expos. Does this mean you believe Portland to be a better location than Washington D.C.? And if so, could you please explain why.

Rob Neyer

(2:02 PM)

Better? No, not necessarily. I was asked to write about the viability of MLB in Portland, so that's what I did. I think both places can support a major-league team, and I believe that within five years both places will have one.

JEFF (PORTLAND, OR)

In your honest opinion, how much of a real chance does Portland have of aquiring the EXPOS?

Rob Neyer

(2:04 PM)

The odds are still against it. MLB would rather be in D.C. -- hassles with Peter Angelos notwithstanding -- and there are still serious funding issues in Portland. At this moment, I would rate the chances at something like one in four, at best.

Paul (KC)

Rob: Despite the kooky overemphasis on Moneyball this season, if you take a look at MLB team stats, the correlation between runs scored and batting average is much closer than the correlation between walks and runs scored - pretty much across the board. Are Cult of Beane members mixing their cyanide-laced Kool-Aid yet?

Rob Neyer

(2:07 PM)

Well, maybe I've missed something, but I don't recall anybody suggesting that walks correlate particularly well with runs. I think what you will find is that OBP correlates well with runs. And if you've got good hitters who also draw walks, then you'll have a high OBP. Also, this is just one season. There have been many teams, over the years, that scored plenty of runs despite low batting averages, because they drew walks and hit home runs. Look at the early-1970s A's for just one example.

JT (Asheville, NC)

Rob, now nearly 18 months after Bill James' book, where do Win Shares stand as an analytical tool? I found the system quite compelling, but it seems to have not gained much traction.

Rob Neyer

(2:09 PM)

Well, Win Shares obviously hasn't taken the media by storm, and a number of petulant/jealous sabermetric types run down the method every chance they get. But within certain circles, Win Shares lives on, and you can find Win Shares for 2003 updated regulated at www.baseballgraphs.com. So I'm not too worried about Win Shares dying an unnatural death.

Brett (St. Louis, MO)

Rob: Do you personall, and as a reporter, think the BaseballProspectus.com report the Pete Rose will be reinstated within the next 3 to 4 months has any validity to it? And if Rose is reinstated, what would stop someone from arguing that Shoeless Joe Jackson should not be in the Hall of Fame?

Rob Neyer

(2:13 PM)

Yes, I'm almost certain that part of BP's reporting is correct. There pretty clearly is a deal in place for Rose's reinstatement, but MLB is denying everything because they want the information released on their terms, after the World Series. As for Joe Jackson, people who think that Rose=Jackson need to have their #%@$ heads examined. Rose bet on his team to win. Jackson tried to lose. THESE ARE NOT THE SAME.

Ryan(Chicago)

Who do you think has the best chance to win the AL Central?

Rob Neyer

(2:14 PM)

The Twins, who have the easiest schedule, will just edge the White Sox, with the Royals finishing at least five or six games behind.

Biggs (Portland)

Rob, is there a little hometown bias in your choice for the Expos new home? Kidding... Actually, it's probably the last thing you want to think about right now, but any ideas for your next book?

Rob Neyer

(2:19 PM)

Actually, I should have mentioned in yesterday's column that I do live in Portland. I don't think it influenced my writing -- the truth is that I'll love Portland just as much, whether the Expos are here or not -- but the reader should know such things.

About the next book . . . As soon as I get done chatting today, I'll be back to work on the next book, which I'm writing with Bill James. It's about pitchers, and with a lot of luck it'll be out next spring (but more likely in the spring of 2005). Thanks for asking.

Adam (Atlantic, Va)

Who is the best pitching prospect in baseball right now?

Rob Neyer

(2:23 PM)

The best? If I answer this, I'm going to get a flood of additions, but I'll do the best I can. In no particular order, here are the five that leap to mind . . .

And you know what? It'll be an upset if one of those guys wins more than 100 games in the majors.

Zack Mast(NJ)

Charlie Zink, who is in double A portland I think will be in the majors soon. Most people haven't heard of him. But I've been saying for weeks, he took a perfect game into the 8th inning. He is in the Red Sox organization and has been compared to Tim Wakefield.

Rob Neyer

(2:27 PM)

Zink's easily the best knuckleball pitcher currently in the minor leagues . . . which means, if history's any guide, that he'll be 30 before he gets his first real shot in the majors (he turns 24 next week).

Actually, the Red Sox aren't as prejudicial as most organizations, so if Zink continues to pitch well, he might get a fair shake. But knuckleballers almost always have a tough road. He does have a great chance to be the first of the next generation.

Chris from Texas

Brad Ausmus has recently "improved" his OPS to .580, but it's still worst among NL qualifiers. Defensive skills aside, how long can the Astros afford to keep him on the roster?

Rob Neyer

(2:28 PM)

Ausmus will be an Astro for as long as Bagwell and Biggio are there. Read into that what you will...

Josh Meyer (Palmer) IA

Is Joe Mauer the best prospect in baseball and when will he reach the bigs?

Rob Neyer

(2:31 PM)

Yes, Mauer -- a catcher who hits for average and power -- is the best prospect in baseball. I suspect he'll get a shot at the 25-man roster next spring, and at worst he'll be in the lineup next summer.

Eric (Charlotte, NC)

Is Russ Ortiz or John Smoltz going to win NL Cy Young if they keep going at the pace they are going?

Rob Neyer

(2:33 PM)

Do you mean which of them is going to win, or will one of them win? Anyway, here's my prediction: If Ortiz wins 22 (or more) games, he'll win. If he doesn't, and Gagne winds up with zero blown saves, he'll win. And otherwise, it'll be Smoltz.

Jacky W. (Rancho Cucamonga, CA)

Jason Stack wrote a fairly convincing argument against Bonds reaching 756. What is your personal opinion? Does Bonds even want 756?

Rob Neyer

(2:36 PM)

Jason made a lot of great points, and I think he's wrong. Look, Bonds needs to average only 30 homers per season for three seasons (after this one) to break the record. Granted, he's not a kid, but he's still playing like a kid. I think 1) he wants to break the record, and 2) he will break the record. I won't be shocked if he hits 800 home runs.

Paul (KC)

Rob: Mike Sweeney is a great hitter, but a $11m DH, who has missed time the last three years due to injury? Not in this market. I don't think this team is going to finish .500. Go ahead, you be the one to tell Royals fans that's a good thing.

Rob Neyer

(2:39 PM)

It's a good point . . . but unfortunately, irrelevant. I've been told (by Rany Jazayerli, who's smarter than me) that Sweeney can exercise the option even if the Royals don't reach .500.

And yes it sounds crazy, but I think they might be better off without him, considering his salary and his bad back.

Don Furrelli (NY)

Why are there not a lot of knuckleball pitchers in the majors?

Rob Neyer

(2:41 PM)

In a nutshell, because it's very difficult to consistently throw the knuckleball into the strike zone. It takes great mechanics and a lot of practice, and most pitchers would rather throw fastballs and sliders (and you can hardly blame them).

Beau (San Francisco)

What's the point of having a John Smoltz on your team if he doesn't appear in three straight games where you lose in the last at-bat?

Rob Neyer

(2:44 PM)

This has been the Question of the Day. For anybody not paying attention, the Giants just beat the Braves three straight games, with the winning run scoring in the bottom of the last inning in each game. And Smoltz never pitched.

I would agree that it's stupid, and Braves fans can only hope that Bobby Cox is a bit more liberal in October.

John (Boston)

Are Knuckleball pitchers only effective they consistently throw it? I mean, has anyone who has a good fastball, Curver, etc, ever tried to use a knuckleball as a change up. Every once in a while tossing it in there, to throw hitter off?

Rob Neyer

(2:47 PM)

This was quite common in the late 1940s, and as late as the early 1970s Joe Niekro threw his knuckleball as a complementary pitch. But with the occasional brief exception (Al Nipper, Zane Smith, John Smoltz, maybe a few others), it's been nearly 30 years since anybody's included the knuckleball as just a part of his repertoire.

Does this make sense? I think that maybe it does. These days, if you hang a knuckleball there's an excellent chance it will get hit 400 feet.

Matty O (Chapel Hill, NC)

Mussina throws a knuckleball sometimes, doesn't he?

Rob Neyer

(2:49 PM)

No, Mussina throws a Knuckle-Curve, which is essentially just an overhand curveball that's thrown with one knuckle on the ball. And a lot of other pitchers throw it.

Graham (Monroe, WA)

Ichiro is going to beat out Bret Boone for MVP again this year, isn't he? I'm a huge Ichiro fan, but this team would probably score 2 runs a game without Boone in the lineup.

Rob Neyer

(2:51 PM)

That's the way it's shaping up. The MVP often turns into a bandwagon, and lately a lot of writers on jumping on Ichiro's. Which is a shame; you'd hope the scribes could do some thinking for themselves.

Look, Ichiro's having a great year. In addition to his batting average, he steals bases and he doesn't ground into double plays, and those things have value. But Boone's the better player, and if a Mariner deserves the award, it's him.

Chuck (Plattsburgh, NY)

Mr. Neyer: Everyone seems to say that hte ROY award is Dontrelle's to lose. Why haven't guys like Jason Phillips (.322 avg, nearly .900 OPS) gotten any acclaim? If the Marlins miss the play-offs does that decrease Dontrelle's chances of winning the award and increase someone like Phillips? Thanks.

Rob Neyer

(2:54 PM)

Well, along the same lines as my last post . . . It would be nice if the voters just waited until the season ended, and then sat down by themselves to figure out who's most deserving. But it doesn't work that way. Momemtum builds for certain candidates, and this year it's Willis with the momentum. Which isn't to say he doesn't deserve the award. I just hope that Phillips at least gets a fair shot.

Damon, MO

Will there ever be another 100 base stealer in the major leagues?

Rob Neyer

(2:57 PM)

Yes, there will. Someday we'll see a player with Vince Coleman's speed and Rickey Henderson's OBP, and he will steal 100 bases. I just hope it happens within the next 50 years, so I'm alive to enjoy it.

Ryan (Fargo)

It's obvious run scoring has increased over the last several years. I think it's a combination of about 5 things together that have created it. If you had to pick ONE thing that has helped run production the most, what would it be?

Rob Neyer

(2:59 PM)

It's obvious, I think: the players are significantly stronger than they were 20 years ago. I believe that all the other things/reasons pale in comparison.

Sean Pennino(FL)

I heard of a pitch called a Gyroball. It's a reverse slider I think. Does anyone throw one in the majors?

Rob Neyer

(3:00 PM)

Are you serious? I thought I'd heard of every pitch ever invented, but this is my first sighting of the GYROBALL. If anybody knows anything about the GYROBALL, please let me know.

David (NY)

As of Wednesday, the Giants are playing .631 baseball (65-38) with Bonds and .428 baseball (9-12) without him. Which means that with him they are the second best team in baseball and without him they are the Mets. In your mind, do all these missed games hurt Bonds' MVP chances becuase a more valuable player would be helping his team every day (like Pujols) or do they help because they show how much the guy means to the team.

Rob Neyer

(3:07 PM)

Last question, gotta get back to work on the next book . . . To me, this might be the most interesting question of the season. In terms of overall value, Pujols and Bonds are almost precisely equal. But does Bonds get credit for being more productive per game . . . or discredit for playing fewer games?

I would vote for Bonds, because the Giants have such a huge lead that they haven't needed him for those extra games. And they've got such a huge lead because he has been so huge.

Thanks for stopping by. I'm on vacation next week, but my columnar space will be ably filled by three guest columnists.