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WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored.
The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win).
Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 13 (11/28/09).>

Game of the Week: #6 Oklahoma State 34 @ #3 Oklahoma 45
With Texas in the mix, neither of these top ten ranked teams is likely to represent the Big 12 South in the conference championship, but Bedlam is still destined to be a fun shootout with national implications. The Big 12 will probably get two teams into BCS bowls again this season. Texas is one. The other should come from this game. Oklahoma is at home and has the superior defense. And while "defense" may not be an appropriate term for any team in the Big 12, it should be enough to make the difference in this game. The Sooners will make one or two more stops than the Cowboys (meaning they probably make one or two stops period), prevailing 78.7% of the time and by an average score of 45-34.

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

Boston College @ Maryland

79.1

10-23

Georgia @ Georgia Tech

51.2

21-25

North Carolina @ North Carolina State

28.2

19-13

Wake Forest @ Duke

25.9

18-13

Virginia Tech @ Virginia

5.0

33-9

Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma

78.7

34-45

Missouri @ Kansas

64.5

28-35

Texas Tech @ Baylor

50.5

29-32

Nebraska @ Colorado

5.3

32-13

Texas @ Texas A&M

5.0

58-9

Syracuse @ Connecticut

87

7-22

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia

82.7

11-27

Miami (FL) @ South Florida

54.2

15-19

Illinois @ Cincinnati

18.6

33-25

Rutgers @ Louisville

15.6

30-18

Rice @ Houston

93.4

21-44

Memphis @ Tulsa

87.4

16-36

UCF @ UAB

71.4

14-24

Marshall @ UTEP

59.1

21-26

Tulane @ Southern Methodist

51.8

18-21

Southern Miss @ East Carolina

39.5

20-19

Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan

85.0

13-28

Eastern Michigan @ Akron

80.1

13-27

Ball State @ Western Michigan

77.4

18-31

Toledo @ Bowling Green

64.1

16-23

Temple @ Ohio

59.8

13-18

Buffalo @ Kent State

45.5

19-20

New Mexico @ TCU

95.0

8-34

San Diego State @ UNLV

78.7

17-28

Wyoming @ Colorado State

74.1

12-23

Utah @ Brigham Young

54.5

22-25

UCLA @ USC

95.0

6-54

Washington State @ Washington

86.0

7-24

Arizona @ Arizona State

29.6

21-15

Notre Dame @ Stanford

25.6

26-19

Arkansas @ LSU

95.0

14-42

Florida State @ Florida

95.0

7-47

Clemson @ South Carolina

14.3

18-8

Alabama @ Auburn

5.0

40-8

Mississippi @ Mississippi State

5.0

43-9

Tennessee @ Kentucky

5.0

23-9

North Texas @ Arkansas State

95.0

8-33

Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic

94.0

8-29

Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana-Monroe

27.9

20-14

Troy @ Louisiana-Lafayette

24.3

25-18

New Mexico State @ San Jose State

71.1

10-18

Nevada @ Boise State

65.4

25-33

Utah State @ Idaho

18.6

24-14

Navy @ Hawaii

14.3

32-19

Week 13 Standings

Conference

Team

Abs Record

Exp Record

Atlantic Coast

Virginia Tech

11 - 1

10 - 2

Atlantic Coast

Georgia Tech

10 - 2

9 - 3

Atlantic Coast

Florida State

11 - 1

8 - 4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina

9 - 3

8 - 4

Atlantic Coast

Clemson

8 - 4

8 - 4

Atlantic Coast

North Carolina State

7 - 5

6 - 6

Atlantic Coast

Miami (FL)

6 - 6

7 - 5

Atlantic Coast

Maryland

6 - 6

6 - 6

Atlantic Coast

Wake Forest

3 - 9

5 - 7

Atlantic Coast

Duke

4 - 8

4 - 8

Atlantic Coast

Boston College

3 - 9

4 - 8

Atlantic Coast

Virginia

2 - 10

3 - 9

Big 12

Texas

12 - 0

11 - 1

Big 12

Oklahoma

11 - 1

11 - 1

Big 12

Oklahoma State

10 - 2

10 - 2

Big 12

Kansas

9 - 3

8 - 4

Big 12

Nebraska

6 - 6

8 - 4

Big 12

Baylor

9 - 3

7 - 5

Big 12

Texas Tech

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big 12

Missouri

6 - 6

7 - 5

Big 12

Colorado

5 - 7

4 - 8

Big 12

Kansas State

4 - 8

4 - 8

Big 12

Iowa State

2 - 10

3 - 9

Big 12

Texas A&M

1 - 11

3 - 9

Big East

West Virginia

11 - 0

10 - 1

Big East

Rutgers

11 - 0

9 - 2

Big East

Pittsburgh

8 - 3

8 - 3

Big East

South Florida

7 - 4

7 - 4

Big East

Cincinnati

6 - 5

6 - 5

Big East

Connecticut

4 - 7

5 - 6

Big East

Louisville

3 - 9

4 - 8

Big East

Syracuse

1 - 11

2 - 10

Big Ten

Ohio State

11 - 1

10 - 2

Big Ten

Penn State

11 - 1

10 - 2

Big Ten

Iowa

10 - 2

10 - 2

Big Ten

Illinois

9 - 2

9 - 2

Big Ten

Wisconsin

9 - 2

8 - 3

Big Ten

Michigan State

7 - 5

7 - 5

Big Ten

Northwestern

6 - 6

6 - 6

Big Ten

Michigan

4 - 8

5 - 7

Big Ten

Minnesota

4 - 8

5 - 7

Big Ten

Purdue

3 - 9

3 - 9

Big Ten

Indiana

1 - 11

3 - 9

Conference USA

Houston

11 - 1

10 - 2

Conference USA

Southern Miss

10 - 2

9 - 3

Conference USA

East Carolina

8 - 4

8 - 4

Conference USA

Tulsa

7 - 5

7 - 5

Conference USA

UTEP

7 - 5

6 - 6

Conference USA

Marshall

6 - 6

5 - 7

Conference USA

Rice

5 - 7

5 - 7

Conference USA

UAB

5 - 7

5 - 7

Conference USA

Memphis

2 - 10

4 - 8

Conference USA

Southern Methodist

3 - 9

3 - 9

Conference USA

UCF

2 - 10

3 - 9

Conference USA

Tulane

1 - 11

3 - 9

Independents (FBS)

Notre Dame

11 - 1

9 - 3

Independents (FBS)

Navy

8 - 4

7 - 5

Independents (FBS)

Army

4 - 7

4 - 7

Independents (FBS)

Western Kentucky

0 - 11

1 - 10

Mid-American

Western Michigan

11 - 1

9 - 3

Mid-American

Central Michigan

9 - 3

8 - 4

Mid-American

Ohio

9 - 3

7 - 5

Mid-American

Ball State

8 - 4

7 - 5

Mid-American

Akron

7 - 5

6 - 6

Mid-American

Bowling Green

8 - 4

6 - 6

Mid-American

Kent State

5 - 7

6 - 6

Mid-American

Northern Illinois

5 - 7

6 - 6

Mid-American

Temple

4 - 8

6 - 6

Mid-American

Buffalo

5 - 7

5 - 7

Mid-American

Toledo

4 - 8

5 - 7

Mid-American

Eastern Michigan

0 - 12

2 - 10

Mid-American

Miami (OH)

0 - 12

1 - 11

Mountain West

TCU

12 - 0

10 - 2

Mountain West

Utah

9 - 3

10 - 2

Mountain West

Brigham Young

9 - 3

9 - 3

Mountain West

Air Force

9 - 3

8 - 4

Mountain West

Colorado State

6 - 6

6 - 6

Mountain West

UNLV

6 - 6

5 - 7

Mountain West

San Diego State

3 - 9

4 - 8

Mountain West

New Mexico

3 - 9

3 - 9

Mountain West

Wyoming

3 - 9

3 - 9

Pacific-10

USC

11 - 0

10 - 1

Pacific-10

California

10 - 1

9 - 2

Pacific-10

Oregon State

9 - 2

8 - 3

Pacific-10

Oregon

9 - 2

8 - 3

Pacific-10

Arizona

7 - 4

7 - 4

Pacific-10

Stanford

6 - 6

6 - 6

Pacific-10

Arizona State

5 - 7

6 - 6

Pacific-10

UCLA

4 - 8

4 - 8

Pacific-10

Washington

2 - 9

3 - 8

Pacific-10

Washington State

0 - 12

1 - 11

Southeastern

Alabama

12 - 0

11 - 1

Southeastern

Florida

12 - 0

11 - 1

Southeastern

Mississippi

11 - 1

10 - 2

Southeastern

LSU

9 - 3

9 - 3

Southeastern

Georgia

8 - 4

8 - 4

Southeastern

Tennessee

8 - 4

8 - 4

Southeastern

Arkansas

7 - 5

6 - 6

Southeastern

Vanderbilt

6 - 6

5 - 7

Southeastern

Kentucky

3 - 9

4 - 8

Southeastern

South Carolina

3 - 9

4 - 8

Southeastern

Auburn

3 - 9

3 - 9

Southeastern

Mississippi State

2 - 10

3 - 9

Sun Belt

Troy

9 - 3

8 - 4

Sun Belt

Arkansas State

9 - 2

7 - 4

Sun Belt

Middle Tennessee

8 - 5

7 - 6

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette

6 - 6

6 - 6

Sun Belt

Florida International

6 - 5

5 - 6

Sun Belt

Florida Atlantic

4 - 7

5 - 6

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Monroe

3 - 9

4 - 8

Sun Belt

North Texas

1 - 12

3 - 10

Western Athletic

Boise State

11 - 1

10 - 2

Western Athletic

Nevada

10 - 2

9 - 3

Western Athletic

Louisiana Tech

7 - 4

7 - 4

Western Athletic

Fresno State

6 - 5

6 - 5

Western Athletic

Utah State

6 - 6

5 - 7

Western Athletic

Hawaii

4 - 8

5 - 7

Western Athletic

San Jose State

4 - 7

4 - 7

Western Athletic

New Mexico State

2 - 10

4 - 8

Western Athletic

Idaho

0 - 12

1 - 11

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!