Reader Comments and Retorts

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I use Win Shares as the base for my ranking system, though I am now using a modified version (any negative values are converted into zeroes) of BRAR, FRAR and PRAR for the NA.

I am integrating the conclusions made by DERA with Win Shares for all pitchers.

I do place (to a certain degree) domination at one's position during the player's era. That doesn't mean that domination-by-default will necessarily help you though (Gil Hodges may have been the best first baseman of his era, but he wont make my ballot).

1) Tom Seaver-P (n/e): #1 on my ballot even if I wasn't boycotting The Hustler (though it would have been close). Great peak and career pitcher who belongs in the top handful of hurlers all-time (and I would be saying that even he wasn't my favorite player as a child :-) Best ML pitcher for 1969 and 1973 (extremely close in 1981). Best NL pitcher for 1981

2) Roger Bresnahan-C/CF (2): Greatest catcher of the Deadball Era not named Santop. The poor man's Buck Ewing (Johnny Kling was the poor man's Charlie Bennett) is still good enough to be here on my ballot. Slightly better than Noisy behind the plate, but the Duke played longer and at other positions. Best major league catcher for 1905, 1906, and 1908. Best major league centerfielder for 1903.

3) Charlie Keller-LF (3): Thanks to James Newburg and others, I'm totally sold on "King Kong" now. Best ML right fielder for 1940. Best ML left fielder for 1943.

4) Charley Jones-LF/CF (4): He was playing a more difficult position than the one that it evolved into. I gave him a little more credit for his (unfairly) blacklisted years. Best major league leftfielder for 1877, 1879 and 1884. Best AA centerfielder for 1883. Best AA leftfielder for 1885 (close to being the best in the majors).

5) Bucky Walters-P (5): The guy had a nice peak, fairly long career, and could hit. Best ML pitcher of 1939 (extremely close in 1940). Best NL pitcher of 1940 and 1944.

6) Mickey Welch-P (6): Yeah, pitching was different back then, but he still distinguished himself regardless. Best major league pitcher for 1885.

7) Pete Browning-CF/LF (7): Gotta love the peak! Best major league second baseman for 1882. Best major league leftfielder for 1883 (close in 1890). Best AA centerfielder for 1885. Best major league centerfielder for 1887.

8) Vic Willis-P (8): Willis pitched a ton of innings at an above-average rate for a long enough time for his era. Best major league pitcher for 1899. Best NL pitcher for 1901.

9) Bobby Grich-2B/SS (n/e): In the same mold of Gordon and Doerr, Grich belongs in the HoM. Best AL shortstop of 1972. Best AL second baseman of 1976. Best ML second baseman of 1979 and 1981.

10) Jimmy Wynn-CF/RF/DH (9): Glad to see that he's getting support now. Best player at his primary position for his era.Best ML center fielder for 1967, 1968, and 1969. Best right fielder for 1972 and 1974.

11) Hugh Duffy-CF/LF/RF (10): "Only" the third best centerfielder of the '90s, but that position was very strong for that decade. Best major league right fielder for 1890 and 1891. Best major league centerfielder for 1892, 1893 and 1894.

12) Gavvy Cravath-RF (11): I'm finally buying the arguments for him. I'm giving him MLE credit for 1908-11. Possibly would have been the best ML right fielder for 1910. Best NL right fielder for 1913 and 1914. Best ML right fielder for 1915, 1916, and 1917.

13) Alejandro Oms-CF (12): Thanks to Chris' work, another gem has been uncovered. He should gather more and more support over the next few "years."

14) Bob Elliott-3B/RF (13): He could hit, field, and didn't have a short career. Best ML third baseman for 1943, 1944, 1947, 1948, and close in 1950.Best NL third baseman for 1949 and 1950.

15) Burleigh Grimes-P (14): Pitched for a long time behind crappy teams and defenses. Not a bad peak, too Best NL pitcher for 1921 and 1929.

Fox, Trouppe, Roush, Fingers, and Beckley all exist in my top-35, but they just fall short.

To me this is a slam dunk year. Let's see how many people use that silly boycott clause.

1. Pete Rose (new)

To clarify, the reason I think the boycott clause is silly is that it is just waffling. We should allow people to boycott (which I don't agree with, but I see the point...I guess), or don't allow them to boycott. Allowing a one year boycott is just lip service.

2. Tom Seaver (new)

Closer to 1 than 3. Any other year...

3. Tony Perez (new)

Not much love for Perez. As a career guy, I am all voe rhim.

4. Bobby Grich (new)

The glut of strong new candidates continues.

5. Rusty Staub (2,x,x)

Pushed down by the new guys, but still strongly deserving.

6. Jake Beckley (3,3,6)
7. George Van Haltren (4,5,9)

From the new to the old.

8. Nellie Fox (6,7,8)
9. Jimmy Wynn (9,9,10)

These are 'cusp' type guys who just need another backlog year or two (or three...)

To clarify, the reason I think the boycott clause is silly is that it is just waffling. We should allow people to boycott (which I don't agree with, but I see the point...I guess), or don't allow them to boycott. Allowing a one year boycott is just lip service.

Excuse me?

As I have pointed out before, the protest vote deprives the candidate of possibly being elected his first year, which removes him from that subset of HoMers honored in that way (which I will indicate in the Plaque Room sometime this week). But I do agree with you that the protest vote should be for more than one year, but I felt the compromise was better than nothing.

Well, I don't think the 'first ballot' subset means much, anyway. Some top-tier guys get in on then 2nd try, and some guys who may not belong at all have gotten in on the first try.
I don't understand the point of a boycott in the Hall of Merit, either, but it won't effect the ultimate roster, so c'est le vie.

Rose longer career than Beckley, but substantially less good, and hugely overrated by WS (his later years were mostly Loss Shares.) after debate, have moved him up to #12, but that’s his ceiling not his floor. Seaver’s the real deal, best pitcher since Grove, better than Spahn, Wilhelm and Gibson, his nearest matches. Grich short career, though good – just below Lombardi, just ahead of Stephens. My impression that Perez was useless while on the Red Sox is, I see correct – well below Staub, another WS mistake. Cedeno slightly below Perez – shorter career countered by CF status. Harrah’s a little better, but still off ballot. Foster off consideration set, but only just (short career.) Baker not good enough. Blue just off the bottom. Chambliss not good enough. Decent year, with very long and tedious tail. Ws seems to be overrating more and more as we approach modern era – why?

2. (N/A-9-9-10-7-7-5-5-4-3-5-6-5-3-4-3-4-4-3-2-2-1-1-2-6-4-4-2-1-1-1-3-
1-2-2-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-2-1-3-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-1-2-1-2-1-1-3-1-1-1
-2-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2) Jake Beckley. Better than Sisler (1 point OPS+, 118 hits, more dangerous/difficult fielding position) and we’ve elected Sisler. Paul Waner is a very close comp (it was 37 years till we found one) and it thus makes no sense to have Waner far above Beckley. Significantly longer career than Clemente or Brock when you adjust the schedule, much longer relative to his contemporaries (he was #2 in AB when he retired, and #5 20 years after he retired.) Adjust his 2930 hits to full seasons and he's up there with Nap, above Babe, over 3200 hits, and OPS+ of 125 better than Van Haltren and slightly short of Wheat’s 129. Isolated power .127 vs “slugger” Wheat .135, in a less power-centered era. TB+BB/PA .455, TB+BB/Outs .707. Played for un-famous teams. Better than Keeler, almost as good as Crawford. More than a borderline HOMer, somewhere in the reaches well above the border but below the immortals. Should have been elected 70 “years” ago.

3. (N/A-7-7-6-8-6-6-7-7-6-7-7-7-9-8-7-7-4-5-3-3-3-5-4-4-4-6-4-4-4-5-2-2
-4-4-3) Addie Joss. I’m now even more convinced I missed him earlier, and that adjusting innings down for dead ball pitchers is illegitimate. 2327 IP at an ERA+ of 142. 160-97 by age 30. If you assume the rest of his career would have been 1800 IP, 120-90 with an ERA+ of 110 (somewhat conservative, assuming you boost his last sick season, though pitchers didn’t last as long as they did later) then 50% credit would put him at 3227IP, 220-142, with ERA+ of 130. 25% credit puts him at 2777 IP, 190-120, with ERA+ of 136. Substantially better than Koufax. OPS+20.

4. (N/A-10-8-7-6-4-3-3-5-9-7-8-6-4-4-4-6-4-5-6-5-4-6-7-6-5-5-6-7-5-5-4-
4-5-4-6-4-4-5-4-4-5-4-4-6-5-5-5-6-7-5-5-6-7-6-5-5-7-5-5-5-6-3-4-7-6-4) Eddie Cicotte. Only 208-149 and an ERA+ of 123, but 3223 IP, more than Waddell and should get about 25% of the bonus for the 300-win career he should have had (he was, after all, a knuckleballer, who tend to peak late.) Much better than the 20s glut – only loses to Welch on longevity – Newhouser a close comp, but Cicotte had a longer career. Successfully cursed Red Sox AND White Sox for over 8 decades!

5. (N/A-15-N/A-5-4-4-6-10-8-9-7-5-5-5-7-5-6-7-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-7-8-6-6-5-
5-6-5-7-5-5-6-6-5-6-5-5-7-6-6-6-7-8-6-6-7-8-7-6-6-8-6-6-6-7-4-5-8-7-5) Pete Browning. Recalculating, to adjust ’82 as well as ’83-’92, he had 2,177 “normalized” hits, with no AA discount. However, TB+BB/PA .511, TB+BB/Outs .855. the same as Tiernan, not quite as good as Thompson, but he got no significant boost from the 1893-94 run explosion. Career OPS+162 vs. 146 Thompson and 138 Tiernan, but you have to discount a bit for AA

6. (N/A-10-9-8-11-N/A-15-15-14-10-10-11-12-10-12-11-9-8-9-10-10-9-
8-9-10-9-8-7-9-9-8-10-9-8-10-9-8-9-8-8-10-9-8-8-8-9-7-7-8-9-8-7-7-9-9-8-7-8-5-6-9-8-6) Charley Jones. Short career – only 1,780 normalized hits, even when adjusted to nominal 130-game-played season (but that’s more than Pike, with much less of an adjustment, and Jones too missed two prime seasons.) But OPS+ 149, TB+BB/PA .473, TB+BB/Outs .722, so above Pike and non-CF 90s OF.

7. (N/A-12-10-12-10-11-10-7-7-8-9-7-9-13-11-10-11-12-12-11-11-11-
12-12-11-11-12-13-12-15-14-12-14-11-10-11-11-10-12-11-10-9-9-
10-8-8-9-10-9-8-8-10-10-9-8-9-6-7-10-9-7) Sam Leever. Pity he wasn’t able to start at the normal time; 2 more years would have made him a NB. Only 2660 innings, but was blocked till 27 by the one-league 1890s and having a steady job as a schoolteacher. Believe he needs to be looked at seriously by others, and included in pitcher analysis. Mild plus for high level of moral probity.

8. (N/A-10-9-8-10-11-10-13-12-14-N/A-15-14-13-12-11-10-10-11-9-9
-10-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-10-7-8-11-10-8) Ernie Lombardi. Up a bit when compared with the closely comparable Berra. 2137 hits, normalized to a 130 game season, and an OPS+ of 125 makes him a little better than Schang, but some of it was during the war years and he fielded badly. TB+BB/PA .492, TB+BB/Outs .719., the ratio between the two very low because of strikeouts, I assume. Plus a great nickname!

10. (N/A-9-8-8-9-10-8-10-9-8-7-8-11-11-10-10-10-11-11-10-9-11-12-
11-14-13-11-13-13-13-13-12-11-14-13-12-11-11-12-10-10-11-12-11
-11-11-13-13-11-10-11-8-9-12-11-9) Wally Schang. When you normalize his career to 130 game seasons for the first 18 years, as I do for catchers, he gets to 1941 hits, more than Groh at an OPS+ of 117, very similar. Furthermore, TB+BB/PA=.455, TB+BB/Outs=.728, also significantly better than Groh, over very close to the same period. And he was a catcher, more difficult than 3B.

11. (N/A-14-15-14-13-14-15-14-15-14-15-15-13-12-13-10-11-13-12-10) Vern Stephens. Short career – only 1859 hits, but comparing him to Reese he was much better, and not far short of Doerr. TB+BB/PA .508, TB+BB/Outs .756. OPS+ 119 Best season 1944, however.

12. (N/A) Pete Rose Hugely, but hugely overrated, another massive error by WS. 4256 hits at 118. 149CS to 198SB subtracts another 50 from that. TB+BB/PA .462 TB+BB/Outs.710, mostly in a hitters era. Sheer stupidity in all its forms deserves to get marked down. I was hoping to have him 16, but the opinion of others (see, I do listen!) has convinced me to raise him here. That’s as far as it goes, though.

14. (N/A-15-N/A-13-13-15-14-12) Quincy Trouppe. Not quite as good as Lombardi or Schang, but will be on ballot in quiet years. OPS+118, about 1900 adjusted hits. Much better than Mackey. Back on again as Stretch was elected.

20. (N/A-14-14-N/A) Chuck Klein. Shortish career but very good one. Similar player to Beckwith, beats Hack on career length, but Hack was better. TB+BB/PA .575, TB+BB/Outs .909, but only 2076 hits. OPS+137.

21. Indian Bob Johnson. Very similar career to Klein but infinitesimally less good. TB+BB/PA .569, TB+BB/Outs .890., only 2051 hits. OPS+138

22. Reggie Smith 2020 hits at OPS+ of 137. Extra intangibles for membership of Impossible Dream. TB”BB/PA .537, TB+BB/Outs .810. Better player than I thought at the time.

23. (N/A-15-N/A) Alejandro Oms. New MLE OPS+ of 125 moves him down a bit. Shorter career than Beckley, and not quite as valuable, but he was a darn good player nonetheless.

Happy Holidays to all! Lots of things going on over the next two weeks that will far out-prioritize this purely fun outlet of my time. Reggie-the-obnoxious will be #1 on my ballot next week, followed by the silent Lefty. Knucksie will be high as well, maybe above Grich, maybe not.

1992 Ballot
Review of Hanrahan’s value system: career value with a fairly high replacement level (slightly below average). Something like RCAP adjusted for defense and league strength, or WARP3 minus 2.5 wins per full year, or WS minus 11 per year adjusted for league quality. No real credit for “peak”. Some subjective estimating of ability across time and place. I rank the long primes higher than most of us.

(x) indicates where I voted for them last ballot
[y] indicates their consensus rank from last ballot

1- Tom Seaver
There are 3 MLB pitchers who have outstanding peaks, primes, and careers, and who were the dominant force of their era; Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, and Roger Clemens. Tom Seaver barely misses this by not being quite as dominant in effectiveness, but he is in the discussion with all of the other “almosts” like Alexander, Maddux, Mathewson, Spahn, and Young (and Paige) if your team all-time peak+prime+career team needs a 4th starter.
2- Pete Rose
I dislike him and despise what he did. Should not ever be allowed to have a position in MLB. But a clear HoFer and HoMer based on his playing career.
3- Bobby Grich
Hmm, what can I say bad about him? That Win Shares might overrate his defense? The guy was durn good for a pretty long time.
4- Jake Beckley (2) [10]
Great career.
5- John McGraw (4) [39]
Great RCAP. The HoM is short of 3Bmen, and short of 1890s infielders.
6- Bucky Walters (5) [14]
Faced strong opponents, pitched real well, hit well too.
7- Bob Johnson (7) [15]
Very good long prime. Underrated by ultra-peak-ists and ultra-career-ists.
8- Frank Chance (8) [59]
A great player on great teams. <u>Better hitter than Gavy Cravath.</u>
9- Dick Redding (9) [12]
10- George Van Haltren (6) [18]
A career of <u>Three Hundred and Eighty</u> Win Shares when translated to a full schedule. Our other bazillion backlog outfielders fall well short of that.
11- Charlie Keller (10) [8]
MiL credit and a pinch of great World Series stats gets him here.
12- Louis Tiant (11) [25]
13- Jimmy Wynn (12) [5]
He doesn’t look much different than Smith or Bonds or Oms, and how many outfielders do we want to elect? I’m lukewarm.
14- Burleigh Grimes (13) [20]
15- Roger Bresnahan (off) []
Been a long time since you’ve seen my ballot, sir. I dropped some OFers a bit lower, and Roger reaps the benefit.

Rollie Fingers – Yes, I plead guilty to the charge of 15th-ing Mr Fingers on the last ballot as a way of saying “I just don’t know”. I have decided now to slot him just below the pitchers I see as HoM-worthy (those on my ballot currently), and above the backloggers who are merely HoVGers (Shocker, Welch, Mays, Bridges).

Edd Roush – George Van Haltren began his career almost a year later in age than Roush. And ended his career a year earlier. In that shorter period of time, Van Haltren gained more Win Shares, and more WARP (either W1 or W3, take your pick) than Roush. Apparently a majority of our voters think both of the uber-stat systems are in error in their assessment. Apparently I disagree with the majority of our voters.

Nellie Fox is around 25; he isn’t much better than Aparicio, Rizzuto, Maranville, or Bancroft. I’d just as soon have Bill Monroe.

Quincy Trouppe is also around #25 for me. The anecdotal evidence, which is one piece of the puzzle, weighs him down some.

karl - a question. You made a lot of noice this last week or so about docking Pete Rose for his slightly high CS%. Do you check everyone's SB numbers the same? How do you account for past eras where CS numbers are not available?

I value career over peak, but can be entranced by a great prime. I look at traditional statistics, ERA+, OPS+, Win Shares and Ink. Equally importantly, I read everything on this board and incorporate all that work into my analysis, whether it is RSI, MLEs, PenAdds, simple comparisons of candidates or anything else.

Wynn -- don't like anything about his stats -- not enough peak, not enough career, his neutralized numbers still shout out HOVG. Mid 50s on my ballot.
Trouppe -- I have him 3rd among eligible catchers, behind Bresnahan and Schang. 60s on my ballot.
Roush -- high 30s on my ballot
Keller -- not a long enough career to be in my consideration set

1. Pete Rose -- #1 all time in times on base, 5th in runs, 10 time top 10 MVP candidate. Inner circle.

2. Tom Seaver – Bob Gibson with longevity makes him an easy #2. I have him 12th best pitcher all-time.

3. Lou Brock, of – I think the post season value and the tremendous speed puts him ahead of the similar long-career peakless Beckley. OCF sums up his case in post 126 of the Brock thread. Number of unelected Hall of Fame or Hall of Merit eligible players with more hits than Brock: One (until Rose is elected). Number of people with more MLB hits than Brock: 21.

4. Jake Beckley, 1b -- ~3000 hits but no peak at all. Crawford (HOMer) and Wheat (HOMer) are two of his three most similars. 3200+ hits adjusted to 162 games.

5. Mickey Welch, p – 300 wins, lots of grey ink. RSI data shows those wins are real. Compares fairly well to Keefe. I like his dominating record against HoMers.

6. Burleigh Grimes, p – as a career voter, I have difficulty seeing the vast difference others see between Rixey and Faber (both now elected) and Grimes.

7. Tony Perez – this might be a bit high, but I am comfortable with it. 34th all-time in total bases, no black ink – the weight of his career totals push him above what otherwise looks like a definitional bubble candidate’s resume.

8. Dick Redding, p – probably the 6th best blackball pitcher of all-time (behind, at least, Williams and Paige and likely behind the Fosters and Brown), and that is good enough for me.

9. Nellie Fox, 2b -- I like the great defense, the 12 all star appearances, the MVP and the 2600 hits from a fielding position.

10. Addie Joss, p – I don’t like short careers much, but I cannot ignore the best WHIP of all-time, the second best all-time ERA, the 12th best ERA+ and the nice winning percentage. He is barely better than (this is an unordered list) Tiant, Hunter, Harder, Warneke, Smith, Bridges, Gomez, Hoyt, Dean, Luque, Pennock, Trucks, Matthews, Quinn, McCormick, Cicotte, Willis, Walters, Bender, Mays, Cooper, Shocker, Mullane (highest WS of any non-candidate by far), Byrd and Mullin.

I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

11. Pete Browning, of – Joe Jackson’s most similar player, and they are pretty close – I have him as about 4/5ths of Jackson, who was 2nd on my ballot when elected. Pete Browning is the benefactor of a decision I made in 1986. I’m a career voter, but I have decided that I’d rather honour a great peak than the 210th best career candidate.

12. Luis Tiant, p – I don’t have a problem with 11 pitchers from the 70s making our Hall. Talent isn’t evenly distributed and I have no problem with acknowledging value attached to favourable conditions. See Welch, Mickey, for the other side of the same coin.

13. Rollie Fingers – he is a real borderline closer for me. As of 1991, I think he is meritorious, so I have him here and could have him as high as 10th (though I think I have found this spot for him – I definitely like Tiant better and I am pretty sure I prefer him to the three hitters directly below him). If he is still on the ballot in 2006, he might move down.

14. Orlando Cepeda, 1b – He is a very difficult choice for me because he isn’t significantly better than Roush, Howard, Colavito and Cash, but the slight difference means more than 30 spaces on this ballot.

16. Jimmy Ryan, of – 2500 hits, good speed, lots of runs. Hurt by timelining. I used to have Duffy close to Ryan and GVH and then decided he was not as worthy. Still, Duffy is only 15 spots back.
17. Sam Rice, of -- 2987 hits speaks to me.
18. Bobby Grich -- takes Boyer’s spot on my ballot. Perhaps I’m underrating middle infield defence.
19. Pie Traynor, 3b -- I think he would have been a multiple time all-star.
20. Roger Bresnahan – Great OBP, arguably the best catcher in baseball for a six year period. Counting stats, like all catchers of this time and earlier, are really poor. I like him better than Schang because he compared better to his contemporaries, if you count him as a catcher.

21. Jim Kaat
22. Aparicio -- those 1000 extra outs separate him from Fox, as does the poorer defence.
23. Dizzy Dean
24. Tommy Leach – 300+ WS has to mean something.
25. Schang – I’d like more catchers in the HoM, but this isn’t a cocktail party.

Rawagman, yes I do check SB numbers, but I looked at Rose especially because of his much-hyped aggressive baserunning. It's likely he ran into all kinds of outs on the basepaths which aren't in the stats, but SB/CS at least gives us some idea of his failings.

We should probably be docking heavy early basestealers like Sliding Billy Hamilton and Max Carey for their low success rate but it's a little unfair since everybody ran at that time, and there had been no research documenting how futile it was. By the 1960s and 1970s, the failings of base-stealing were known, even if not exactly quantified, as evidenced by its sharp dropoff after 1920.

I don't use EqA because it's a black box, which I suspect includes several sabermetric assumptions I don't agree with. OPS+ captures hitting information perfectly adequately, although very extreme sluggers in the Kingman/McGwire mold need to be docked a bit.

1) Tom Seaver – Had a really hot looking wife. He pitched OK too.2) Pete Rose- Wasn’t a member of the KKK. Never was proven to throw games. Pretty good hitter. Showed effort on the field.3) Nellie Fox – 2600+ hits as a 2nd baseman, led the AL in hits 4 times, top 5 9 times. 12 All Star Games (11 in a row). MVP. Oh, and he hardly ever struck out. That's a compelling peak AND career argument.4) Chuck Klein –4 hr titles including a triple crown. His age similarity scores from age 25-34 mirror Ruth, DiMaggio and Ted Williams. Even in a bandbox ballpark, that’s not too shabby.5) Burleigh Grimes –5 20 wins seasons, 270 total wins, very strong on the black and gray ink tables.6) Pie Trayner –.320 career average, hit .300 or better 10 times7) Luis Aparicio –nine Gold Glove awards, led the American League in stolen bases nine seasons and was named to the All Star squad 10 times. When he retired in 1973, he held the career record for shortstops for games played, double plays and assists.8) Rollie Fingers – The first of the great modern relievers.9) Lou Brock- The H.O.M. doesn’t appear to value stolen bases (Aparicio, for example) as I do. 3000 hits is a major qualifier for me as well.10) Ernie Lombardi –2 ba titles, 8 all star games, .300 career average as a catcher.11) Sam Rice –Talk about late bloomers…Virtually no stats before he was 29 and still finished just shy of 3000 hits.12) Phil Rizzuto – SS on the team with the greatest era ever. 3 prime years lost to WW2 would have put him over 2000 hits and ended the debate.13) Gavvy Cravath- The leading power hitter of the immediate pre-Ruth era.14) Jake Beckley – almost 3000 hits.15) Hugh Duffy – That .440 year is just plain sick.

No soup for…
16) Mickey Welch – 300 wins in a short career, but never the top pitcher in his era.
17) George Foster- I think he is getting shortchanged. A terrific hitter for about 7 years.
18) Edd Roush – I like Rice better, but I am coming around on Roush.
19) Addie Joss- Awesome peak
20) Gil Hodges – Great fielder, very good hitter for arguably the NL team of the 50's.
21) Thurman Munson – A good peak, obviously not a long career, although by the time of his death, he was already pretty much finished
22) Catfish Hunter- Peak and clutch
23) Pete Browning – League quality and shortness of career issues.
24) Tony Perez- I could have hit 20 homers and driven in 90 rbi’s a year with Rose, Morgan, Bench, etc surrounding me. Points off also for whining his way into the HOF.
25) Tony Oliva- With good knees, he would’ve been a sure thing HOF’er
26) Jim Kaat- I am comfortable with him in this position. Career length enabled him to put up some interesting numbers, but I don’t think he’s good enough for the HOM (or the HOF for that matter).
27) Charlie Keller – I am not a big believer in war time credit to compensate for a very short career.
28) Vida Blue – What might have been…
29) Bobby Grich- I remember watching him in the 70’s. He was good, but history overrates him. One 300 season, otherwise, a lousy percentage hitter.
30) Reggie Smith &
31) Jimmy Wynn- The Hall of very good beckons
32) Dick Redding - Another player with anecdotal, but not statistical evidence.
33) Quincy Trouppe- Not sold on him. Certainly isn't one of the top ten catchers (up to 1992)

I also realize I did not comment on Tony Perez. Yes, he is top 25 in career RBI. George Van Haltren would be top 25 in runs scored if he hadn't spent three years on the mound. Yes, he didn't actually achieve the black ink, but I doubt we would we hold it against Brooks Robinson's value if he played a few years at shortstop, and in so doing failed to set a record for most games played at 3B. Tony Perez (and Staub) is Jake Beckley-lite; I cannot see putting Doggie near the same spot as the Jakester.

1992 Ballot –I use a little of WS, WARP, RCAA, OPS+, and traditional stats, as well as reputation. I’m putting bWS/700PA and pWS/300IP, plus my broad All-Star candidates, and MVP/Cy Young candidates for fun.

People should be very careful using these stats or WS/WARP as over 90 years of experience we can now definitively say that they frequently produce absurd results. WS in particular appears to overrate every mediocity of the modern era, because there are more teams, more wins and longer careers. When you look at the innards of WS, it's impossible to claim with a straight face that its derivation is scientific. Halve the WS for pitchers per-1893? Why is 1892 hugely different to 1894? And so on.

OPS+ appears to give a good solid one-number-answer to the question "How well did he hit, compared to his peers?" EQA+ likewise for pitchers. As such, I regard them as central.

Well, while the formula is published and straightforward the folks at BP have admitted that its empirical and not theoretical. (or in laymans terms, it was not "derived" from first principles but it was chosen because it worked -- OCF is the math teacher so maybe he knows a better explanation).

Also, if you click the "create EQA" link on your page, you get a different formula! Which is it? :-)

I like EQA. :-) I'm just acknowledging that's its to be viewed critically just like everything else.

Lip service has value.
Lip service allows emotion and principle to be factored in with stats.
A one year boycott allows someone who isn't fully committed to a lifetime boycott to register concern. All or nothing isn't something I'd want in a voter.

OTOH, if I was willing to go through the rigor of the HoM voting rules:
1. Seaver on overall merit
2. Rose on superior counting stats
3. Grich on peak.
4. Beckley on counting ...

I still think all y'all should slow down now that real time is close. The posts when you only have one "year" per year will be near intolerable.

WS has its problems. But for a given season, from 1894 on, if you adjust for schedule length, it's as good a measure as any, especialy because it combines offense and defense. Of course you can make your own timeline/league strength adjustments.

Oh, and OWP for offense is much better than OPS+. Yes, it's a bit less obvious. But then OPS+ is way too unobvious for some fans who only like batting average and RBI.

Thanks toilet, I was about to mention that to Karl! Eqa is not a black box, all you have to do is either a)click on teh link that toilet just gave us, or b) look around the BPro glossary a little bit. It is SOOOOO much more accurate than OPS+, taking into account the differences in weight between OBP and SLG as well as baserunning. It also works with a league average, using .260 instead of 100. I have always wondered by OPS+ users dont' use Eqa more often.

Grandma,

Shouldn't we have to say explicitly that we are boycotting Rose? Otherwise is looks like you are simply leaving him off your ballot and that would require quite the explanation. I plan on boycotting him as well and thought that we had to say at some point in our ballot that we are boycotting him.

Tom,

How do you compare Beckley and GVH? I ask because another one of tke many reasons I can't support Beckley is that he seems to be clearly inferior to GVH. Their total career values are similar in WS (the metric you do mention while voting for GVH) at 388 vs. )I believe) 390 for Beckley. However, GVH has the peak that Beckley is missing, I think he has five seasons better than Beckley's best. So I guess the question for me is, is five seasons above 25 WS worth more than about 4 more average seasons at the tail end of Beckley's prime that add up to about the same amount of marginal value (GVH's best seasons- Beckley's = Beckley's extra average seasons). I would be interested in seeing that comparison. Is it the defensive adjustment?

Van H is a CF compared to Beckley's 1B, a more valuable position in the 1890s though not according to WS (this is just one of WS's inaccuracies when you go back that far.)he also had an inferior OPS+, marginally, and neither were sluggers by post-1920 standards.)

I'd rather use OPS+ and correct for SLG and baserunning in extreme cases, thanks. It's MUCH more transparent. Unlike EqA, there's no unexplained adjustment for "league difficulty." Also, EqA looks to me to overvalue walks, and includes SH and SF for which we don't have data in the early years -- thus overvaluing modern players where we do, since 1001/4001 >1000/4000.

I can't imagine that anyone who prefers adj OPS+ who doesn't go further and factor in fielding and position as well (and baserunning, although it's the rare player who makes a HUGE impact there). I have Nellie Fox in the top half of my ballot, for instance, and have voted for many 'fielders' even though in some cases their impact is overrated.
OPS+ is excellent at its job, with a few OBP/SLG anamoly players deserving 2-3 extra career pts of OPS. But nobody, including Bill James, is able to quantify defense as well as adj OPS+ quantifies offense. So why would we pretend that it does?

(Daryn) I don’t think any of the guys below this sentence are deserving.

The race is on, then. As we remove candidates from the ballot three at a time, will you be able to place enough newly eligible candidates above that line to keep it from bubbling to the top of your ballot, or nearly so?

Just to clarify, I was only talking about offense when I was comparing Eqa and OPS+, I would expect everyone to take position and fielding into consideration. I just think that Eqa adjusted for seasons (which has no 'league difficulty adjustment unless it is between leagues at the same time, i.e. NL vs. AL 2006) is much more accurate than OPS+. And it doesn't overvalue modern players because of SH and SF because, like OPS+ it is based around a league average, which would include these numbers already. Actually, half of this post is answering karl, not you. Oh well.

I make a OBP/baserunning adjustment for the cases when it´s worth making. And, after this is done, I feel the difference between the result and EqA is too small to bother, when one considers that we don't get EqA in the MLEs for Trouppe, Cravath, Oms...

I also realize I did not comment on Tony Perez. Yes, he is top 25 in career RBI. George Van Haltren would be top 25 in runs scored if he hadn't spent three years on the mound. Yes, he didn't actually achieve the black ink, but I doubt we would we hold it against Brooks Robinson's value if he played a few years at shortstop, and in so doing failed to set a record for most games played at 3B. Tony Perez (and Staub) is Jake Beckley-lite; I cannot see putting Doggie near the same spot as the Jakester.

The race is on, then. As we remove candidates from the ballot three at a time, will you be able to place enough newly eligible candidates above that line to keep it from bubbling to the top of your ballot, or nearly so?

I once only had 7 people above the line. It looks like Brock, Welch, Grimes and Joss are there to stay. The jury is out on Perez. Beckley and Redding sh/could make it. Fox, Rose and Seaver are locks.

Perez's five peak years were spent playing 3B, and reasonably well at that. Which I would argue gives him a heck of a peak of the "Ron Santo" type.

That was pointed out to me in the discussion thread, and is a very good point. I think Perez is being underrated. 760 games is a lot at a fielding position. For the peak voters, that should be especially persuasive.

sorry, Rico, that isn't allowed. tell us where he would be without the points off.

I agree with Jim. He shouldn't lose any points for whining, not to mention that it's unconstitutional. BTW, if he's losing points for that, how many points are you taking off for Rose? Whatever you feel about boycotting The Hustler, there is no way anybody can make a reasonable argument that Perez's character is remotely worse than Rose's.

My “system”? Emphasizes prime and career; give me steady excellence over a fluke year or two or three. Seeing no need to reinvent the wheel, I look at win shares and WARP and rely on the interpretations of these by other analysts. IMO, our group overvalues peak; I like guys who play. There’s also a tendency here to cut and run from well-seasoned candidates.

My ballot, Teddy Bears and all. My #1 and #8 were elected. The last Elect-2 year in 1992 elects Seaver and Rose(?), and crowds the backlog with Grich, Perez, Cedeno, Harrah and Foster. Another treasure horde of HoMers in 1993: Mr. October, Lefty and Knucksie; The Penguin and Porter may also get some support. A really interesting mix of newbies in 1994: Simmons, Sutton, Nettles, Concepcion, Cruz Guidry and Sutter. Thirdbasemen rule in 1995 as Schmidt, Evans and Bell come on; John and Rice also go in the pot.

1) Tom Seaver – Inner circle.

2) Pete Rose – Among the top 70 all-time. I rate him on his playing, not on his later misbehavior.

5) George Van Haltren (2,4,5) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #8 unelected player to #16. We’ve now elected 12 players who were behind him in 1970. Why? Now in his 84th year eligible. Pennants Added study shows him well. He excelled in the contraction years 1892-1900; he had high SB totals (usually 35-40 in his prime years), which I believe was more important pre-1920; he was a mainly a centerfielder (~71.7% of his non-pitching games vs. ~47.6% for Ryan and 61.5% for Wynn), Ryan (and Duffy) actually played more corner outfield. Players with most stolen bases 1891-1900:
1—660 B. Hamilton2—443 G. Van Haltren

6) Edd Roush (3,5,6) – The dude could mash, while playing a stellar centerfield. Played 89.2% of his games in CF. Pitcher’s park hurts his raw stats. The last five elections have seen him move into position for eventual election. Pennants Added likes him a lot. Players with OPS of .850+, 1917-25, minimum 3800 PA:
1—1.193 B. Ruth
2—1.037 R. Hornsby
3—.975 T. Speaker
4—.961 T. Cobb
5—.931 H. Heilmann
6—.918 G. Sisler
7—.865 Z. Wheat8—.864 E. Roush

7) Tommy Leach (4,6,7) – Cracked the top twenty in voting in 1988 for the first time since 1949. I think it’s what Bill James once said, that all-around players get overlooked, while specialists get overrated; voters like that one area of dominance. Modern comp to, but just a bit behind, Craig Biggio, he could beat you in many ways. Longevity, defense and speed, more important in that era, rate him above Groh. Versatility is a plus; it should not be assumed that any typical thirdbaseman of the era could have successfully handled CF. Had a better peak than Bobby Wallace, but his career was a couple years shorter and he had just a little less defensive value. Among OFers with 750 games 1905-14, he is 2nd in PO/G (behind Speaker) and 2nd in FA (behind Clarke). I like guys who play; longevity is a hallmark of quality. Of the players with the most games played, 1891-1923, 13 of the top 14 are HoMers:
1—2792 H. Wagner
2—2517 S. Crawford
3—2480 N. Lajoie
4—2450 T. Cobb
5—2443 B. Dahlen
6—2383 B. Wallace
7—2307 E. Collins
8—2242 F. Clarke
9—2232 G. Davis
10-2182 T. Speaker11-2156 T. Leach
12-2123 W. Keeler
13-2122 J. Sheckard
14-2087 S. Magee

8) Jake Beckley (5,7,8) - He’s Joe Start, but without a peak and retired four years sooner. Grade B fielder, won four WS GG. The many triples were the product of a strange park in Pittsburgh, as his other stats do not suggest good foot speed. Top ten seasons in win shares for Beckley and the other long-career first basemen of his era:
23-21-21-20-19-19-18-18-18-17 J. Beckley
31-26-21-21-19-19-18-17-17-14 H. Davis
25-25-22-21-19-19-17-17-17-15 F. Tenney
24-22-21-20-16-14-13-13-12-11 D. McGann
30-20-17-17-16-13-12-11-11-10 T. Tucker
19-18-17-17-17-12-12-10-10-09 J. Doyle

11) Rusty Staub (9,ne,ne) – He’s the Grimes of position players. Ranks #36 all-time in Times On Base; #59 in Total Bases, just ahead of some guy named Jake. Edges Brock in win shares, blows him away in WARP3.

12) Roger Bresnahan (10,11,11) – A couple more voters now (11) have some regard for The Duke of Tralee. Versatility should be a bonus, not a demerit. How many other catchers could have been pulled out from behind the plate to be an all-star in centerfield? Could move higher, but I really like guys who play. Played half his teams’ games in only 11 seasons, averaging 71% of team games in those years. Still, his offensive production towers over other catchers of his era, so he deserves a vote. Defense only C+. Players with OBP over .390, 1903-14 (minimum 3100 PA):
1—.424 T. Cobb
2—.420 E. Collins
3—.413 T. Speaker4—.401 R. Bresnahan
5—.400 H. Wagner
6—.399 F. Chance
7—.396 R. Thomas

14) Quincy Trouppe (13,14,--) – Third time on ballot. Recent discussion shows me he’s the most deserving NeL candidate out there, all the signs are positive. He may very well be the best catcher candidate as well.

15) Rabbit Maranville (12,13,14) – My other Lost Cause, along with Ryan. Sixth time on ballot. Every career voter should have him on their radar. WARP1 is 134.5, even better than Beckley’s 116.0 (high of 8.0). That includes four years better than 10.0. Plus he’s due nearly a year of war credit, which adds another 8.0 WARP1. Career WARP3 is 105.5, easily in HoMer country. Career win shares, with war credit and adjusted to 162 games, is 339, including 124 in his top five seasons.

Wally Schang falls off; the last time that happened was 1966.

Rollie Fingers also slips off.

Top tenners off ballot:

Fox has been on my ballot and will be again. Weaker league weighs him down a little.

Wynn is a bit short on career, but definitely on my radar. Would be on if he’d played more center field.

8 ballots, 1 boycott. Those on the fence about the boycott -- join the dark side (that is, the no boycott side).

I predict that the anti-boycott voters will post earlier than the pro-boycott ones for this election, mainly because non-votes bother them more than pro-votes do for my side (because we know he's going in at some point). IOW, Rose wont necessarily coast into the HoM in '92. :-)

Use a sort of peak-over career number that measures ink by playing time. Combined with rate stats and a glove measurement, I feel this gives me both context for what the player actually achieved versus what the league around him was able to do.
Being able to spend a bit more time looking at releiver patterns within my ranking systems, I noticed certain trends that helped me adjust, and consequently feel much more confident in my rankings. For example, Rollie Fingers moved up, but Sparky Lyle moved up even more. I found him to be much more consistent. Fingers pitched for longer, so was able to accrue more saves, and the space between them isn't great - but I think it's there. If I had to pick a closer for my team, I think I would take Sparky. That said, I know that (I checked) Goose outshines them both and will be placed higher when his time comes.
Seaver and Rose go right into my PHOM - my thoughts on the veto question are elaborated in the Rose comment. Grich starts off at 10 on my ballot. My personal preferences go for Nellie Fox, OPS+ be damned. Still, Grich is next in line for personal enshrinement. Several other good new candidates entering the fray this week, but none good enough to approach my ballot. Perez is just below Beckley, in the mid-60's. George Foster had a very nice career, but one that doesn't do too well in my system. Somewhere between Heinie Manush and Lou Brock in my consideration set - outside of my top 75. Cesar Cedeno looks similar to, but a little below, my reassessments of Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn. Vida Blue looks oddly like like Jim Kaat but less heft - well outside of my top-75. Special mentions to Dave Kingman and Gorman Thomas - soo similar, but so dissimilar as well. Neither comes close.

1)Tom Seaver - I haven't run Seaver against some of the other top pitchers form the last 50 years (Carlton, Spahn, Koufax, etc..), but there wasn't a reason to. He is heads, shoulders and elbows ahead of any other eligible pitcher, and head and shoulders over any other plyer on this ballot. (PHOM)
2)Pete Rose - I don't buy a veto. Gambling on baseball is bad while you are involved in the game - no doubt. So are steroids. If an individual gambled on the game while active during a certain percentage of his career, does that nullify the rest of the career? Not in my book. I am inclined to lower his career accomplishments, but no more than the last few seasons - he still earns the second spot on my ballot. (PHOM)
3)Hugh Duffy - Super peak, wonderful prime. Amazing bat, super glove. (PHOM)
4)Ben Taylor - Reevaluation gets him on the ballot. Can't find the peak, but a better prime (through the roof), career and glove than Beckley. I think he may be the player most underrated by the electorate. (PHOM)
5)Gavvy Cravath - No longer the worst fielder in my top 120 candidates (Frank Howard). Probably still the best hitter, though. (PHOM)
6)Lefty Gomez - looking at him in any single way hurts him. Looking at him kaleidoscopically has him as the best available pitcher in my eyes (PHOM)
7)Edd Roush - I found it in me (and Edd's numbers) to move him up a bit in the list. An exceptional hitter and fielder. (PHOM)
8)Nellie Fox - Looking past the OPS+, Nellie Fox was remarkably effective in almost all facets of his game. (PHOM)
9)Quincy Trouppe - Not an easy call, but I think he's the best available catcher. Moving up a few slots this week. (PHOM)
10)Bobby Grich - inauspicious debut? A very good 2B. I prefer Fox's longevity to Grich's uberstats. That said, Grich right now is next in line for PHOM status.
11)Tommy Bridges - He was really very good. Moves up a few notches as I reexamine his applicable WWII credit and begin a rethink into pitching evaluations. (PHOM)
12)Vern Stephens - Will we look at Nomar down the road like we look at Vern now? Great bat, good glove. (PHOM)((12a)Bill Freehan - Most of this is defense.))
((12b)Biz Mackey - I was really underestimating both his offense and his reputation))
13)Bobby Veach - He did it all well. As complete a LF as is available today.((13a)Willie Stargell - His particular career has proven to be a real challenge to my system. I think this will be among his lower rankings. But if I didn't jump all over Billy Williams, then Willie can only be here.))
14)Orlando Cepeda((14a)Ken Boyer - so close. Fits nicely between Brooks' glove and Rosen's bat.))
15)Al Oliver - I was surpirsed by the similarilites between Oliver and Reggie Smith. Smith had the higher OPS+, but I fear it may be a bit hollow. Oliver trumps Reggie (and Wally Berger) in light of his more convincing peak and a glove that scores better than the other two. Career length is nice as well.
16)Wally Berger - super-underrated
17)Dizzy Dean - Diet Sandy Koufax. 0 calories (career), no sugar (prime).((17a)Juan Marichal))
18)Bus Clarkson - I failed to give him credit as a SS earlier. More shades of Quincy.
19)Ernie Lombardi - defense was below average, but not quite horrible
20)Roger Bresnahan
21)Al Rosen - One more season in prime, and he is top 10
22)Mickey Welch - jumps up in my new system.((22a)Jim Bunning - He had merits, but not enough for balloting. Benefits from my re-examination of ink.))
((22b)Billy Pierce - don't see him as being better than Bridges. My system looks at pitchers diferently than position players as I do not account for hitting. That's probably flawed and may need to be reconsidered. But I do not want to dock modern AL pitchers for simply pitching in a league where they do not hit as a rule. And pitcher fielding has become more and more irrelevent over the years.))
23)Sparky Lyle - The biggest surprise of my remodeled releiver system. I don't look at postseason heroics so much, but for those who give plaudits for Fingers' work, check out Sparky. Great peak, very consistent.
24)Dick Redding - One of the toughest for me to accurately place (PHOM)
25)Chuck Klein
26)Tony Oliva - another big jump. Career not as short as I thought. A world class hitter.
27)Charley Jones - he got the shaft - but I am not convinced as to what extent. A little reconsideration bump here. I give partial blacklist credit. I tend to be liberal with credit, but I don't think he deserves full credit.
28)Reggie Smith - Another challenge. Uncertainties about his defense keep him from challenging my top half. Moves down this week as I make up for the error that counted his whole career as a CF.
29)Jim Bottomley - More than just a Frankie Frisch mistake.((29a)Joe Gordon - Neither here nor there. Not the peak, nor the career. War credit obviously helps him, but not enough for me.))((29b)Dobie Moore - Peak too short, not enough surrounding it. Wreckers play helps, but not enough at present.))
30)Addie Joss - ERA/+ and WHIP are great, but why so little black ink?((30a)Cupid Childs))
31)Pete Browning
32)Rollie Fingers - When he was on, forget about it. Unfortunately, I don't feel that he was on consistently enough to merit anything, much higher than this. It seems that his abundance of 15th place votes last year was a lot of voters hedging their bets.
33)Bucky Walters - Very similar to Pierce in overall picture - but built differently.
34)Don Newcombe - big beneficiary of pitcher's fielding analysis.
35)Luis Tiant - Undoubtedly a wonderful pitcher, but of the type who don't do that well in my system.I wasn't Billy Pierce's biggest fan, but I still liked Billy (and Marichal and Bunning) more than Tiant, so he starts off over here.
36)Fred Carroll - I give him around 1.5 seasons prime MiL credit. Better than Tenace.
37)Larry Doyle - If only the glove were just a little better.
38)Phil Rizzuto
39)Charlie Keller - 3rd all time in extra credit. Too much 'what-if' to rank higher. I do not give minor league MLE credit for being blocked. Integration, yes. Non-MLB affiliation, yes. Having someone else the franchise liked better at the time above you, no.
40)Norm Cash - Too much in one year - and that was not the best year for an everlasting peak, for a number of reasons.
41)John McGraw
42)Jimmy Ryan
43)Cy Williams
44)Amos Otis - Forgot to include him last year. Very comparable to the next guy. Bat and glove trading off.
45)Jimmy Wynn - First I overrated him, like some of you (IMHO). Then I underrated him. I think this is more demonstrative of his true level. Impressive rates, nice gloveman. Not much else to set him apart.
46)Jake Beckley - Always very good. No peak, all prime. Defense is overrated. I have read about his arm being so weak (and erratic) that runners were able to take the extra base on him. Not sure how that works at 1B, but worth noting.
47)Tony Perez - This is THE Jake Beckley comp, in terms of overall level and value. Still, not my type.
48)Dolf Camilli
49)Fred Dunlap - Very short career
50)Pete Reiser - The biggest "what-if" on my ballot. If you like Keller, look at the Pistol.
51)George Kell
52)Frank McCormick - One of the finest 1B gloves in MLB hitter, and a decent hitter as well.
53)Bob Elliott - A little 3B run here
54)Sal Bando
55)Pie Traynor
56)Ray Chapman - I think his case deserves some credit.
57)Johnny Evers
58)Elston Howard
59)Bob Johnson
60)Joe Wood - If he had one more really good year as a pitcher, he'd be balloted
61)Bill Mazeroski
62)Tommy Leach - I had missed him until now - I don't see the great love for him, though.
63)Vic Willis - A reaximantion of all pitchers to include fielding ability causes an adjustment for Willis and a jump up the consideration set.
64)Red Schoendienst
65)Thurmon Munson - see below.
66)Walker Cooper - some days, he reminds me of Quincey Trouppe
67)Johnny Pesky
68)Hippo Vaughn
69)Cesar Cedeno - Found him to be comparable to Amos Otis and Jimmy Wynn in total value. Slots lower than those two in light of the shape of that value.
70)Vada Pinson - The ink really threw me for a twist. He looks like a good all-round CF, not great. But he amassed hefty ink totals for his generation. This may be a safe ranking.
71)Tip O'Neill - The next Canadian.
72)Rocky Colavito
73)Denny Lyons
74)Luis Aparicio - The low OPS+ masks his real effectiveness.
75)George Van Haltren - a nice player, but there were always others who were better. Much better.

Personal Hall of Merit for 1992: Tom Seaver and Dobie Moore. Almost got around to finally inducting Don Drysdale into my PHoM but decided that I'd rather not take two pitchers in one year. Plus, Moore had been the highest player on my ballot who wasn't already in my PHoM.

1. Tom Seaver, P (n/e): scattered black ink from 1969 to 1981, including a couple of dominant years in 1971 and 1973. 300+ career wins with a career winning percentage over .600 and a sub 3.00 career ERA that was .78 better than the league. Peak, prime, career, rate stats, cumulative stats: Seaver's got it all.2. Dick Redding, P (2). PHoM- 1975. A big peak in the late '10s with a long enough tail in the '20s to give him decent if not earth-shattering career numbers. I'm still holding out hope that Redding can make his way back to the top.3. Nellie Fox, 2B (3). PHoM- 1976. I didn't expect to be voting for Fox again this year.4. Quincy Trouppe, C (4). PHoM- 1977. Still the best catcher available.5. Lou Brock, LF (5). PHoM- 1985. Arguably the best career value on the ballot.6. Alejandro Oms, CF (6). PHoM- 1984.7. Burleigh Grimes, P (7). PHoM- 1984.8. Hugh Duffy, CF (10). After electing a bunch of infielders- including a few who were on my ballot like Boyer and Moore- I tried to balance that out by taking another look at outfielders and first baseman. The result is that several "bat" guys moved up relative to other positions: Duffy jumped over Newcombe, Cepeda jumped over Aparicio and Fingers, Browning jumped over Traynor and a couple of others. Nothing too drastic- the biggest jump was for Browning who went from top 20 to 14.9. Don Newcombe, P (8). PHoM- 1987. I have no qualms about being Newcombe's best friend. Korean War credit gives him one of the best primes on the ballot.10. Orlando Cepeda, 1B (14). See my Hugh Duffy comments. Cepeda started high, slid down and is now working his way back up again.11. Luis Aparicio, SS (12). PHoM- 1987. 12. Rollie Fingers, RP (13). He's HoM-worthy and I'm becoming more comfortable with his placement on the ballot. 13. Jake Beckley, 1B (15). The reason why Brock is only "arguably the best career value on the ballot."14. Pete Browning, CF (n/a). See Hugh Duffy comments. Onto my ballot for the first time.15. Pie Traynor, 3B (n/a). Makes the ballot as the best available third baseman, and yes, I did take a second look at Dandridge, Elliott, Kell, Leach and the peak-heavy guys like McGraw, Rosen and Williamson before confirming that I was right to have Traynor ahead.

Rose: I've gone back and forth on this one, making the case against a boycott at one point and making the case for it at another. The merry-go-round stopped here with a one-year boycott, otherwise I'd actually have him ahead of Seaver
Grich: I like him as an Orioles fan, but I just don't see the numbers to push him ahead of other players at his position such as Doyle and Monroe; he's actually in the spot where I used to rank Childs, another 2B I didn't vote for
Perez: a slightly lesser version of Beckley, which isn't an insult from me the way it might be from others; he could be on my ballot in a couple of elections
Wynn: not good enough for not long enough
Roush: the fourth-best centerfielder available but I already have three- Oms, Duffy and Browning- on my ballot
Keller: I admit that he had the reputation of a great player, but even with war credit he wasn't great for long enough

Perez. I essentially have him tied to Beckley. I had them both 20 or so places lower initially, then decided to install a moderate BS dump on my system. Essentially, whenever a player (especially a hitter - this almost never happens to a pitcher who makes our consideration sets) has so little black ink, I raise red flags. Of course I look at a lot more than that, but I prefer ink as my tie breaker.
Oliver - His career wasn't short. My fielding measures are somewhat rudimentary, but as I do not agree with what WS or WARP are actually measuring, I use a sort of rate stat combo of fielding % + plus rate and then factor in positional stress and contemporary opinion. I may be rating him a little higher than I should there, but looks to have been an above average defender. Perez was similar in being above average at his position (although a little lower at 3B), but but Oliver trumps him on the stress. If it makes you feel any better, please note that I have Oliver tied to Berger. That could go either way.

1. Pete Rose - I initially considered boycotting him. He'll either be elected this year or next. Plenty of other clear choices had to wait a year to get in for various reasons, and other non-inner circle made it in the 1st year. I respect other's boycott of him, but for me it's a crapshoot. In the end for me, you're either in or you're out. I don't care how or when you got there. As a consensus we generally have a pretty good idea of what "inner circle" is anyway, regardless of whether they got in 1st or 2nd ballot. Was/is he a jerk? yes. Did he bet on baseball? Most likely. Should he banned from baseball? IMO Yes. Would it hurt my feelings if the boycotters kept him from being elected this year? Not at all. Regardless of his flaws (which are many) did he still put up the numbers he did in his career? Yes, and that's what I am basing my vote on. I don't like him, in fact I almost despise him, but he did what he did on the field and he did it well.

2. Tom Seaver - Indeed Tom was Terrific

3. Rollie Fingers - I am a friend of the reliever. I don't believe that we should elect many, but Gossage, Sutter, Quiz, and when the time comes Rivera and Hoffman are all ones I am quite certain will receive support from me.

4. Charley Jones - I give him full credit for his blacklisted years.

5. Gavvy Cravath - practically tied with Jones in my system. I do not hold it against him that he took advantage of the hitters park he played in. If anything I give him a pat on the back for knowing the situation and taking advantage of it. The same goes for Klein.

6. Edd Roush - I give him credit for 1930

7. Nellie Fox - I'm more of a career voter than I am peak. Peak has it's place in my system, but for example, I do not feel that a 3 year peak is anywhere near as valuable as a long steady career such as Fox had.

8. Orlando Cepeda - never THE best, but consistently very very good. I prefer a career like this over a player who's only argument is peak.

9. Cecil Travis - if not for WWII, would have most likely posted the career stats that I love.

10. Bucky Walters - This shows where peak comes into play for me. Bucky does have career value, but without the peak he wouldn't be able to sniff my ballot. This works both ways though, if it were only the peak and no career to go with it, he wouldn't be getting any consideration from me.

11. Tony Oliva - similar to Cepeda

12. Don Newcombe - giving him credit for years missed would give him tremendous career value

13. Vern Stephens - a power hitting shortstop in the 1940's and MVP threat every year.

14. Bobby Veach -see Cepeda and Oliva

15. Chuck Klein - same explanation as Cravath

16. Jack Quinn

17. Ernie Lombardi

18. Lefty Gomez

19. Johnny Pesky

20. Quincy Trouppe - taking another look at Trouppe and he could be making a big move up on my ballot again soon.

21. Roger Bresnahan

22. Charlie Keller - not enough career value. strong enough peak to get this high, but that's it.

Another thing on the boycott issue -- if it does delay him until next year he will end up with a much higher percentage of the vote next year than this year (assuming there are at least a handful of voters who still maintain the boycott this year). So the boycotters will actually have the effect of making him look better in percentage terms.

OTOH, Grich's support is higher than I thought. It may only take a few boycotts to torpedo the Hit King. Ideally for the boycotters, this would have been an elect three year and he would have gotten in with 60-70% of the vote.

DanGwrote:5) George Van Haltren (2,4,5) – After 48 years at or near the top of our backlog he’s been repositioned; in six years, 1982 to 1988, he went from the #8 unelected player to #16. We’ve now elected 12 players who were behind him in 1970.

The reason seems obvious enough to me. GVH, as a 'career'-type candidate, is not getting any support from 'peak' voters, who make up a large proportion of the voters on this site. This establishes a 'glass ceiling' for him, which is unfortunately below the region where he can be elected (during the years where he came closest to being elected -- 1930 to 1933 -- there were fewer extreme peak voters than there are now).

Jake Beckley suffers from this effect too. Here are voting results from several years (only including players who averaged at least 5 points per voter:

One can ask why all those players who were considered not as good as GVH or Jake Beckley in those years (many of them 'peak candidates'), somehow improved enough to eventually get elected, while GVH and JB, both 'career candidates' remain on the outside of the Hall of Merit.

Cedeno 30, Foster 32, Blue 38. Kind of a mini “hall of disappointment”. Cedeno was more impressive than I remembered, obviously the Astrodome hurt his raw stats. It kills me as a Met fan to put Foster above Staub, but reluctantly I’ve decided to include his Red years in his evaluation. Vida Blue must have been something when he had it going…which I guess wasn’t quite often enough for the HoM.

Harrah 95, Baker et. al. well off ballot.

Roush – #71 with no extra credit. I suppose if I gave him every conceivable credit for holding out he’d make it, but I’m not there yet.Beckley— No peak but a lot of consistent production, #50 right now.

1) Seaver--One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all time.
2) Rose--I’m not a boycotter in general, though he makes my skin crawl. As a player he’s got both career and peak. He’s a hitter who played a lot at premium defensive positions.
3) Grich--Maybe the most underrated player of all time. Great fielder, great hitter.
4) Bob Johnson-- WinShares says C fielder, warp thinks he’s considerably better than that. Very high assist totals from LF. Played CF for a terrible 1938 A’s team, also a little bit of 2B and 3B. On the whole I think the record indicates that he was actually a good defensive player. I also suspect that his WinShares suffer from playing on some horrible teams. May have struggled trying to get a break, tough to grab playing time on the great A’s teams earlier in his career. Never did anything but mash despite late ML start at age 27. 1934-1942 is a HoM worth prime in my view. PHoM in 1970.
5) Fox--The man had 2663 hits (#61 all time) and was a great fielder. A 94 OPS+ is strong for a grade A second baseman, compare Mazeroski at 84. 1957 and 1959 are great peak seasons (11.8 and 9.8 warp3). 1951-1960 is a high sustained prime. PHoM in 1970.
6) Rizzuto--The man lost his age 25, 26, and 27 seasons to the war, right after a very good season in 1942. One of the best fielding shortstops of all time. A 93 career OPS+ is strong for a grade A shortstop, not weak. Great peak season in 1950 (11.4 warp3). PHoM 1977.
7) KellerThere’s no doubt he was one of the great hitters when healthy, 152 career OPS+ is #28 all time. An MVP type season every year from 1940-46 when not at war. That’s enough prime for me, even without longevity. PHoM 1985.
8) PerezInteresting, most people like his career, but wait a minute…he was playing third base from 1967-1971…there’s a peak there.
9) Stephens-- PHoM in 1961. Looks underrated to me. Best years by Warp3 10.2, 10.1, 8.9, 8.5, 8.0, 7.8. Another player short on career length, but I like the prime.
10) Bobby Bonds--PHoM 1986. 1969 -75, 77 are all very good to MVP candidate seasons. Career 130 OPS+ plus good speed, a good enough fielder to play some CF. Is only lacking longevity.
11) Elliott--PHoM in 1960. The hitting for a 3B in his era is outstanding. Best years by warp3: 10.9, 9.4, 9.2, 8.7, 7.7, 7.3, 7.0. Strong prime trumps an early decline in my view.
12) Jimmy Wynn--PHoM 1987. In 1965 had a MVP type season completely obscured by the Astrodome and era. Best years were not consecutive but impressive: 11.0, 10.3, 9.8, 9.5, 9.0, 8.1, 7.4 by warp3.
13) Munson--PHoM 1991. I like Munson more than Freehan because of the peak. 1970, 73 and 75-77 were big seasons for a catcher.
14) FingersERA+ not impressive, but by other measures better.
15) TrouppePHoM 1988.

Perez is not a peak lover's guy even with his time at 3B as those years weren't really that impressive. Perez is unlikely to be higher than #40 for me, I just dont' get the love. I woudl rather have Cepeda. Then again I don't get Rusty Staub either.

And if you are using the uberstats, teh positon that the players plays becomes less important, at least in theory. I mean it isn't like I am treating him jsut as a hitter when I talk about his WS or WARP or TPR (does anyone use this?) numbers.

Tom,

I guess that works. Surprised to here that you put such a low emphasis on peak. As a peak voter if two players have equal peaks and primes I will go with the one that has more career. To me, GVH adn Beckley have equal careers adn GVH wins big time on prime and peak. I am not fingering you here (I dont' think you were one of the ones to say this) but it is kinda weird since it seems like us peak guys got a lot of flack for supposedly not taking career into consideration and some career voters put such a low empahsis on peak.

I’m a strong peak voter. I rely heavily on WS for hitters, with OPS+ and a little WARP thrown in as well. For starting pitchers, I prefer PRAA, with some ERA+ adjustments and a little WS (which I don’t love for pitchers) for good measure. For relievers, I’ve adopted a mix of career total PRAA and year-by-year peak PRAA, with an emphasis on the latter, which seems to produce the most sensible results I can come up with.

Not a ton of modifications this time around, unless you count my methodology statement above, which I’ve changed to be less misleading (i.e., I do pay some attention to career—there, I admit it!). I did do some tweaking to the middle of my top 50, with Chance and Doyle moving up a bit after a reconsideration of that grouping down there. (Since my pHOM is getting down to the 20-30 level, I figured it’s time to be really, really, really careful about who’s down there and in what order.)

pHOM: Seaver, Rose

1992 ballot:

1. Tom Seaver (pHOM 1992). An easy first choice. I’m not sure I put him in the Pete Alexander class, but among postwar pitchers, even my superpeaky system only likes Gibson and Koufax better.

2. Pete Rose (pHOM 1992). A cretin, sure, but I don’t believe in the boycott. He doesn’t seem at first a peak voter’s type, but he actually has a pretty respectable one, especially given the various positions he played. He was (and remains, in many eyes) overrated, but to me he’s a pretty easy choice, and would be #1 in many "years."

3. Dizzy Dean (pHOM 1967). Sure, it’s a really short peak, but he was inarguably dominant during it. It’s just long enough for me.

4. Charlie Keller (pHOM 1973). With even fairly conservative war credit, he’s VERY close to Kiner.

6. Ed Williamson (pHOM 1931). Another lost cause, but still the best of the backlog 3Bs, for my taste.

7. Bobby Grich. He’s not Morgan, certainly, and not Carew either. But he matches up well with the lower-level HOM 2Bs (Herman, Gordon, Doerr), was by all accounts a remarkable fielder, and deserves induction. It’s amazing how underappreciated he was when he played—only top-10 in MVP voting twice, and not very high finishes even then? I only remember the second half of his career, when he played on the coast I wasn't on, but I guess he wasn't the flashy type, eh?

8. Vic Willis (pHOM 1961). Not the most dominant pitcher of his era, perhaps, but he was in the mix—and his peak is still excellent.

9. Elston Howard (pHOM 1976). The various extenuating circumstances of his career can’t hide the great (if short) peak.

10. Al Rosen (pHOM 1968). Another very short peak, but five great years, especially at this position, are enough for me.

11. Pete Browning (pHOM 1979). An offensive force, if not as much of one as the insane AA numbers make it appear. His non-AA years prove that he wasn’t just a soft-league fluke.

13. Gavvy Cravath (pHOM 1985). Every time I reevaluate outfielders, he does a little better. Now I can’t believe he hasn’t been here all along. With minor-league credit, he’s got the peak I look for, and enough of it to edge guys like Chance (to address that issue).

14. Luis Tiant (pHOM 1991). His peak may have been short, but it was also pretty stellar.

15. Charley Jones (pHOM 1976). As with Browning, his numbers are covered in the AA haze, but I’m convinced he played at a high enough level long enough for induction.

•Fox. Just dropped off this year, after finally making the ballot last time out, knocked off by a somewhat better 2B, Grich. He’ll be back. At #16 for now.

•Wynn. Not among my top unelected choices, but a very strong candidate, with a peak that surprised me. He’s in my pHOM now, and, at #20, not too far off ballot.

•Roush. Another guy whose peak doesn’t quite measure up to those of those on my ballot, but my opinion of him has risen lately; he’s just barely off-ballot now, at #16.

•Fingers. A tough nut to crack, but in the end I feel he doesn’t quite have the peak I’m looking for. All the other factors pump up his standing though, and he hovers right near my eventual in/out line for my pHOM. He’s at #29 right now.

•Beckley. I repeat: I’m a peak voter. He’s not on my radar.

•Perez. Actually better than I thought he would be—given my memory of him and his long painful road to the HOF, I figured he’d be a borderline career candidate. He actually has a small but existent peak, though, and the fact that it occurred mostly when he was playing 3B makes it even more notable. Unfortunately, that’s about all that’s notable; it’s enough to get him by Cepeda, to whom he seems very similar in my system offensively, but not much further. He starts at #40.

•Cedeno and Foster: Not enough peak for outfielder candidates. Cedeno resembles Pinson; Foster resembles Manush. None of these players are in my top 50, or particularly close.

•Blue. I was tempted for a moment—what a 1971!—but while at a first look he resembles some guys I like (Willis, say), he really is more Smokey Joe Wood than those guys. Not in my top 50.

•Harrah. He’d need to be a lot better on offense even than he was (and he was better than I recalled) to get into my top 50. He is, however, closer to it than I would have predicted going in, despite the terrible defense.

One can ask why all those players who were considered not as good as GVH or Jake Beckley in those years (many of them 'peak candidates'), somehow improved enough to eventually get elected, while GVH and JB, both 'career candidates' remain on the outside of the Hall of Merit.

Well, one can, but didn't you already answer the question above?

The reason seems obvious enough to me. GVH, as a 'career'-type candidate, is not getting any support from 'peak' voters, who make up a large proportion of the voters on this site...during the years where he came closest to being elected -- 1930 to 1933 -- there were fewer extreme peak voters than there are now).

Acutaly I think this coudl be fun. John, instead of posting a ballot can I just randomly post where I will have players ranked on my ballot? Then you can go through and find them and put the list together yourself. It will be a fun little exercise! How about it?

Tony Perez didn't drop in my rankings because he was a whiny little creep who blamed racism for not making the HOF as quickly as he would have liked. He gets "points off" as a man...that has nothing to do with my rankings.

1992 Ballot
My ranking system heavily weights 5 year peaks, but additional career value can add up, too. I rely primarily on the uberstats, with about a 60/40 split between WARP and WS. I’m rather liberal with war and minor league credit. I use a catcher bonus of up to 10% based on the proportion of a player’s career spent behind the plate.

By the way, I believe all of the WARP #s I’m using were up to date as of the beginning of the month. I could be wrong, but it appears to me that some players’ totals have changed on the BP website since then. I have already run the numbers for all “serious” eligibles through the “2006” election. Rather than try and constantly update, I am going to continue to vote based on the data I have currently collected.

1) Pete Rose
#20 among position players who’ve been eligible thus far. He doesn’t rank first merely due to his never-ending career, although that doesn’t hurt: 51.2 in his top 5 WARP3 seasons and 160 in his top 5 consecutive WS seasons.

2) Tom Seaver
A close second to Rose. I’ve got him as the 9th best pitcher ever, although Clemens and Maddux are, I’m sure, going to rank higher, and so may the Big Unit. 55.4 top 5 WARP3 and 142 in top 5 consecutive WS.

3) Bobby Grich
A better 5-year peak than Rose in WARP3 (53.1), but not by consecutive WS (143). He’s got solid career value to back up the peak, too. I’ve only got Collins, Morgan, Lajoie, and Robinson ahead of him for second basemen (Carew is higher, but not so clearly primarily a 2Bman).

4) Tony Perez
Perez is not terribly dissimilar from Staub—they’re almost identical by Win Shares. His peak according to WARP is substantially better than Staub’s (46.6 to 40.5) and he’s got a little more career value to boot (109.5 to 102.7), so Tony gets the edge.

5) Rusty Staub
By Win Shares he looks like a solid HoMer: 358 career, 145 top-5 consecutive. By WARP he’s a bit more marginal: 40.5 top 5 WARP3 isn’t super (albeit better than Beckley), but 102.7 career is respectable.

6) Bucky Walters
A very good pitcher…I’m not convinced that he needs to be docked for the superb Reds defense more than the DTs already do.

7) Ben Taylor
The lack of data from his prime years makes all of this highly speculative, but I’m ranking him as if he was Keith Hernandez with a little less peak and more career (career totals of around 105 WARP3 and 320 Win Shares; with top 5s of 46 and 135, respectively).

9) Dick Redding
2nd best NeL pitcher of the deaball era, hopefully we’ll give him his due eventually.

10) Bobby Bonds
Similar in career value to Indian Bob (93 WARP3, 302 WS). 149 WS in top five consecutive seasons is impressive, though not unprecedented.

11) Quincy Trouppe
With Bench elected, he’s my pick for best available among those who primarily played catcher, Black or White. Credit based on estimate of him playing 75% of his games at C.

12) Ken Singleton
Funny how a guy who conjures up such a divergent image of a “type” of player when compared to Bobby Bonds can put up such similar overall career and peak value—both have 302 WS, just over 90 WARP3; top 5s of about 150 WS, 46(BB)/48(KS) WARP3.

13) George Van Haltren
GVH seems to be an obvious HoMer if you just look at Win Shares (344 career, 133 top 5 consecutive—before season length adjustments); however, WARP (especially WARP3) is not nearly as favorable: 86.5 career, 36.4 top 5.

14) Luis Tiant
By WARP alone (98.2 career, 45.3 top 5 WARP3), I’d have him higher than Walters, but Win Shares is not as generous (256 career, 108 top 5 consec.).

16) Jimmy Ryan
As I am sure has been hashed and re-hashed dozens of times previously in the history of the Hall of Merit, Ryan appears to be GVH part II (or part 1). 17) Gavy Cravath
A heavy dose of MiL credit gives him the career bulk, which, when added to his peak, makes him a ballot contender.
18) Dizzy Trout19) Charley Jones—Always close to the ballot, if not on it. I give him credit for 2 blackball/blacklist/whatever years.
20) Sam Rice21) Nellie Fox—I don’t see a huge difference between Fox and Bill Monroe. He could easily make my ballot in future elections.22) Jake Beckley—Close to the ballot due to career value, but his lowish peak holds him back. To give you a sense of how tight my ballot is: the distance between #3 Grich and #5 Staub on my ballot is almost twice the difference between #5 Staub and #23 Beckley.
23) Tommy Leach
24) Rabbit Maranville
25) Norm Cash
26) Jim Kaat
27) Reggie Smith
28) Buzz Arlett29) Jim Wynn—Decent career and peak numbers, he comes out as something of a ‘tweener in my system. The Toy Cannon is not all that far behind OFs ranked higher, in absolute terms, it’s just a tight ballot.30) Charlie Keller—I slightly readjusted his 1 and 2/3 years of WWII credit down. Even with his peak and the war credit, it’s just not enough combined to get him on my ballot.
31) Burleigh Grimes
32) Jack Quinn33) Edd Roush—Bonus hold-out credit moves him up a bit, but not all that close to the ballot.
34) Bob Elliot
35) Harry Hooper
36) Vada Pinson
37) Phil Rizzuto
38) Alejandro Oms
39) Hugh Duffy
39) Orlando Cepeda
40) Cesar Cedeno
41) Bus Clarkson
42) Lou Brock
43) Vern Stephens
44) Dom DiMaggio
45) George Foster
46) Spot Poles
47) Gil Hodges
48) Cy Seymour
49) Fielder Jones
50) Toby Harrah

Notable Newcomers:
109) Vida Blue

Returning Consensus Top 10 Not in My Top 100:Pete Browning— He takes a real beating in the WARP1-3 conversions. I have voted for him in the past, but right now I’ve got him somewhere just over #100, in Hack Wilson territory. Rollie Fingers—Out of my top 100. I may be underrating relievers as a whole, but I modified my rankings to help closers/firemen when I originally had Wilhelm well below most other voters. Those adjustments help Rollie, but currently I can’t see adjusting them more to bring him closer to my ballot. I like Goose Gossage a lot more.

Number of corner outfielders with more MLB runs created than Brock: 36 (that's counting Andre Dawson.)

That still puts him 18th at LF for argument's sake, which is borderline (but in) for the Hall of Merit and should also make him close to the top of the ballot since we are electing the borderline right now.

Not surprisingly, the Hawk will do better on my ballot than he will on most.

Mark S - I should clarify. I'm a career voter, but it's career with a high replacement level (slightly below avg, much higher than WS, somewhat higher than WARP), which tends to reward peaks pretty well, primes very well. I just don't give BONUS credit for peak. Pretty obvious that you'll find some long careers on my ballot, some short ones. I assume if KJOK lowered his replacement level a bit (or I raised mine even more) we would be voting clones.

1. Pete Rose No boycott. One of the great careers of all time. Played a greater proportion of his career at "bat" positions than I would have suspected. Should have retired after 1982.

2. Tom Seaver Voting for him requires minimal cranial exercise. Why #2? General reason: (consistent with my past ballots), when there's a strong pitcher and a strong position player who will split the vote, my system is one that tends to favor the position player. Also taken into account is that pitching large numbers of innings was relatively easy during his time.

3. Bobby Grich I imagine that those with a sabermetric bent will rate him highly. All-star or nearly all-star level play almost every year 1972-1984. Most similar 2B is Gehringer. Subsequent middle IF who are similar such as Larkin, Alomar, and Trammell are also overlooked by the HoF. Eventually the HoF is going to have to find a way to get some of these players inducted. It is insane to create a de facto standard for induction and then to raise the bar for modern players.

4. Wally Schang Generally all-star level of play at C 1913-1920; one of better catchers for most of long career afterwards; career leader in WS among C upon retirement. At the Freehan/Torre level, when one takes into account that in-season catcher usage was lower during his time than afterwards.

5. Charlie Keller Consistent all-star to MVP level of play at corner OF 1939-1947, with a peak that looks as high and more sustained to me than Kiner's did. Believe that his peak would have been maintained during WWII and thus give war credit at this level.

6. Nellie Fox Consistently among better 2B 1951-1960; lots of padding of career stats outside these years. Has enough peak/prime to make him tolerable to some peak/prime voters, that, as well as being a 1950s IF, helps to boost his chance of eventual election.

7. Rusty Staub Looks like career >> peak to me. Will not help my consensus score, as similar players are the very very good types who don't make the HoM (or the HoF unless they attain magic numbers like 3000 hits). Maybe I should call them "quadruple-A HoM candidates".

8. Norm Cash Among better 1B most seasons 1960-1971, and occasional all-star level. More consistent than Cepeda, but less playing time per season.

9. Orlando Cepeda Among better 1B most of years during 1959-1967 and occasionally all-star level; career totals padded 1968-1974. Cepeda, Cash, and F. Howard are a set of near-exact contemporary "bat" candidates who played in the 1960s, a tricky era in which to judge the potential near-bottom-of-the-HoM "bats".

10. Elston Howard Multiple years of all star play at catcher; 1961-1964 "workload" also noteworthy. A peak that few catchers have attained, but very little outside the peak.

11. Reggie Smith Among better RF most years during the 1970s; respectable career totals; played CF in addition to RF.

12. Ken Singleton Multiple all star-type seasons 1975-1979; MVP level 1977 season. Very durable in 1972-1983 prime; not much outside this. List of similar players suggests that he will not make it to the HoM easily, if at all.

13. Mickey Vernon Did have some all-star type seasons at 1B, but basically a "career" candidate all the way. Credit for two years missed to WWII, and belief that pre- expansion 1950s baseball had some of the toughest competiton of all time. Among top contenders for "Hall of Fame chance hurt by WWII", as listed in Bill James' NBJHBA.

14. Gene Tenace Consistent, high secondary average, run producing catcher. Would appear to be clearly below the consensus in/out line for catchers, but I rate catchers higher than most.

15. Jimmy Wynn Multiple years of all-star quality CF play. Sabermetric poster child- 0.250 BA, but played a defensive position, had a 0.400ish secondary average, and played in a pitcher's era.

Fingers looks to me like a "career reliever" candidate, like Lee Smith. This type does not come out highly in my system, though I can see the argument for having more relievers than I'm likely to put in my PHoM. A condundrum for those who like to think it's "all figured out".

Trouppe's record doesn't look any more impressive to me than that of Bruce Petway or Ted Radcliffe.

Isn't 300 a bowling score? Grich's OBA was 15% better than league, his SA was 10% above league. How are those lousy? His BA was only a little better than league, but since that doesn't correlate as well with scoring as the preceding, I don't know why anyone would take that into account.

Someone said they are surprised Grich is getting so much support. I'm surprised he's getting so little. Maybe there are a lot of other great fielding second basemen with OPS+ of 125 on the ballot, and I just missed them.

The fine print: Overall, I think there is too much emphasis on WARP3 and WS, which are intriguing tools but which are not yet sufficiently mature.
So my preference for ERA+ and OPS+ helps, I think, as a reality check. Increasingly, I've had to adjust for PAs per season, not really an issue in earlier years when nearly all star players played almost every day.
I tend to be mostly prime-oriented with hitters, prime and career with pitchers. But a huge peak sometimes catches my eye, and a remarkably long hitting career also works for me.

I had last year's electees Rod Carew-Ken Boyer-Dobie Moore at 1-8-off ballot (unusally off-trend for me).

1. TOM SEAVER - I am stunned by how many voters have Rose above Seaver, who clears 135 ERA+ a remarkable 9 times and is a top-10 IP 13 times. Seaver crushes a very solid contemporary HOMer like Perry 9 straight times and then matches him over the next 5 years. We are talking about one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history. Easy No. 1.
2. PETE ROSE - Hard to like doesn't begin to describe it, although if you too got a copy of the "Charlie Hustle" hardcover book as a kid you'd understand why he ran to 1st base off each walk drawn. I looked everywhere for reasons to put him behind Fingers and Grich, but his ridiculous durability, longevity, and chameleonic position changes furiously willed him to this slot. Truly was a force of nature, if you missed his prime. Overrated by history, but the intensity was palpable.

3. BOBBY GRICH - I stumbled onto the description "hit like Doyle, fielded like Grich" two weeks ago, and that sums it up. This is a perfect skill-set for me - I want serious hitting in the infield if I can get it, and if you can combine it with great fielding - you're in! 1972-76 and 1979-83 - what more can you ask from an infielder?
4. ROLLIE FINGERS - A devilish career to evaluate. So how does he wind up No. 4 this year? Mainly, lack of competition on the ballot. But he has many pluses: nine seasons with 100 relief IP (Rivera has one, as a setup man). He won about 100 games in relief not as a vulture, but as a guy pitching when it mattered most. For those dazzled by modern save totals, realize that Fingers was in the top 4 in his league in SVs 11 times (to 7 for Rivera). But most of all, what wins Fingers this slot is his inherited-runner numbers (and bonus to his World Series heroics). Fingers' teams just kept winning games he pitched for them - often he'd win himself, and often he'd save the day with runners on (not to seem to be slighting the great Mariano, a better pitcher, but he rarely does that). There is intriguing data that suggests that the Yankees' Wang is deliberately inducing grounders most of the time - and then raising his K rate only when needed. In some way, I think Fingers was SO good in the 'clutch' for so long that it seems like he was not just getting lucky over and over again. Either way, the results were of immeasurable value. Still, no complaints if he has to wait for more debate.
5. PETE BROWNING - For last year's ballot, I looked again at the 1890 PL season. Browning at age 29 leads the league in adj OPS+ by 13 pts over 32-yr-old HOMer Connor, followed by a 22-yr-old Beckley and HOMers Ewing, Brouthers, Gore, O'Rourke at 6-7-8-9. Ewing is 30, Brouthers is 32, Gore is 33, O'Rourke is 39. Browning by all accounts is 'an old 29' due to his health and alcohol problems. But in his chance to play in a HOMer-laden league, he dominates. Yet I am supposed to assume that as a younger player he wouldn't have been able to post big numbers in the NL rather than the AA? Seven OPS+s above 163. 10 seasons as a regular, a good number for the era. This poor fielder played some 16 pct of his career in the infield. Given the era, how much did he really hurt his team in the field? Not enough to keep him off this ballot.
6. NELLIE FOX - The best of an era at his position. But is this the Sewell argument all over again - one I ultimately found went against Sewell? I'm wavering but not yet convinced. That core of 1951-60 as a league-average or better hitter while playing a great defensive 2B and being so durable is quite valuable, I think. A lot more seasons than Sewell at middle infield, that helps. (Yes, I looked at Bancroft this year. Tempting, but not quite there on him yet.)
7. BOB JOHNSON - I really like this sort of consistency over a dozen strong years. Sort of the Joe Gordon of OFs in career shape, or a slightly longer and flatter version of Kiner. I am quite bothered by 1944 being his highest OPS+; seems like he took advantage of the weak competition. But has a decade's worth of excellent hitting, for a prime that I like better than Van Haltren's or almost any other holdover's.
8. JAKE BECKLEY - Ah, the great polarizer. I should note that this is not as much a "elect Beckley" play as a "hey, they're making me pick 15 people vote, and I don't like the other guys more."
Beckley's OPS+s as a regular: 152 44 38 33 31 28 27 27 26 26 26 24 22 12 12 05 02
His fielding had more value than I think some voters realize (though not as much as I used to think), he played every day, he hit well - there's nothing remotely like this career among the unelected hitters from 1875-1935. 13 OPS+s of 120 or better (even Kaline had 'only' 12, and Banks only had 7). Rivals came and went; it's only Beckley who lasted. Suffers from those looking at his career through a modern prism, especially with newer voters. The biggest issue for him may be the 8 seasons in the 120s - I find that quite valuable given era and position; others do not.
9. BOB ELLIOTT - Bob helps me from being TOO far ahead of the consensus pack, lol. If you haven't examined him in a while - or ever - get to it!! Six seasons of at least 134 OPS+, ALL of them as a 3B! Wish he'd played all 3B and not so much OF, but c'est le vie - Sewell seemed to get treated as a full SS by some. Beats out Boyer (see Boyer thread for details) and compares remarkably well with Santo as a hitter (see Santo thread for more details). Better than HOMer Hack as well.
10. BURLEIGH GRIMES - Compare to Ruffing, Rixey, Wynn and other such HOM pitchers. I dismissed him as short of Rixey and Ruffing, and he was. But he's just one 130 ERA+ year short of climbing a little higher on this ballot.
11. CANNONBALL DICK REDDING - A longtime favorite who has climbed his way back onto my ballot in recent years. I liked him as an all-around candidate, but the HOF research suggests he's more of a peak guy. Those types don't always fare well with me, but with the weakening ballot, to be fair I think he belongs here.
12. QUINCY TROUPPE - Leaped onto my ballot for the first time ever last year, as I'm now starting to believe he wasn't just a durable, long-career catcher. A better hitter than I'd thought previously - he didn't always get to play against many HOMers, but stacked up nicely when he did.
13. CHARLIE KELLER - Second time on my ballot. Poor man's Ralph Kiner, but even Kiner's election didn't quite get him onto my ballot before. Of his six actual big seasons, one was a weakened 1943 and another is a slight issue, 1942. I don't mind bumping close guys up and in during the war, but the pct of extrapolation here has been a little too much for me.
14. FRANK HOWARD - Ken Singleton snagged this spot last year, after I had intended to give it to Wynn. This year, I looked at Howard, and he just is too far ahead in three spectacular seasons and five more very solid ones to lose out to Wynn, even given the fielding handicapping. An astounding 170-177-170 OPS+ stretch from 1968-70, and averaged 690 PA in those three seasons, too.
15. BUCKY WALTERS - Slipped back onto the ballot after missing last 2 years; very borderline. Two best seasons were not war-related, so that helps me buy into the idea that he'd have had two more really good ones regardless. Really about a 130-140 ERA+ season or two short of my usual standard, but the pool is getting pretty thin. Seems to be grabbing away the "last pitcher" slot from Welch on my ballot in certain years, but maybe not for good.

OF THE 10 TOP RETURNEES, DID NOT VOTE FOR:
JIMMY WYNN - Wildly underrated by baseball fans, and threatens to be just as wildly overrated here. I almost like Reggie Smith better, and surely Johnson, Cravath, Keller and Howard were just as good or better. Still, the OPS+s are undeniable, the fielding/position gives some boost. Has not yet reached my ballot, but might next year if he's still around.
EDD ROUSH - The missing ABs per year really bother me about him, and yes I am adjusting re WW II. Reggie Smith is an interesting comp, and I almost like Reggie a tiny bit better even without a timeline. Hall of Very Good, lucky to be in the Hall of Fame. He also is on the edge of my ballot.
CHARLEY JONES - Has made big leap in the voting of late, but I still don't quite see it. The suspension is an interesting mid-career turn, but lots of weird things went on in those days. I pretty much just look at what they did do, and I can't see putting Jones ahead of Johnson, Cravath, or Keller.

NEWCOMERS
TONY PEREZ - He has the right top 2 and top 4 seasons, but modern 1B-OFs do it for a top 8 or so. Bonus for five years at 3B, but it's not quite enough. He was a borderline Hall guy, too, who got in on the "clutch hitter" myth. This Mr. Clutch was .238 AVG and .291 OBP in the postseason, for example, in 172 AB.
CESAR CEDENO - Had the right age 20s career, but alas he skipped the 2nd part.
TOBY HARRAH - Had 3 to 5 really big years, but neither eyesight nor stats told you he could really play 3B or SS. A little underrated, but let's not overdo it.
GEORGE FOSTER - Wow, Foster is better than I thought! Very nice 4 and 6 years deep, but has nothing left to add, too bad.
VIIDA BLUE - Also fares a little better then expected. But even dismissing the 0-5, 6.01 ERA in 14 starts in 1983 (!) doesn't save him.

OTHERS WHO JUST MISSED
GAVY CRAVATH - First time off my ballot in about 20 years, in reconsideration of Baker Bowl - sure he smartly took advantage, but others didn't have that opportunity. Still, I disagree with the conclusion of some that MLB teams didn't consider him good enough - much less that they'd have been right. The key for me is the half-season opportunity in 1908; even then he clearly was a quality major league hitter, so there's little reason not to significantly credit either 1907 or 1909-11. His work in his 30s is just outstanding, up there with some of the best ever. Comparison to Kiner is fascinating. Will return to my ballot.
THURMAN MUNSON - Don't overrate the "if only" bonus, because his career was near-done, especially as a catcher. But a very nice prime on some very good teams, and clearly he had a big part in that, also hit for a high avg in the postseason. Compares quite well with electee Freehan.
ELSTON HOWARD - I am troubled by the combo of shortened career plus durability issues, but I've decided he deserves more offbeat credit than Charley Jones does. Damn shame he caught in the wrong organization; not much reason for anyone to claim 'Yankee pride' when it comes to reviewing this case.
LUIS TIANT - Looks like he has the peak at first glance, but notice that the innings usually just aren't quite there. Plenty good when he did pitch, but with that lack of innings you have to be even more dominant. Maybe he winds up as the era's last P electee, not sure yet.
MICKEY WELCH - The Ws are great, but he hovered in the 3 to 5 ranking in IP when only a dozen or so guys were hurling serious innings. One outstanding, one excellent, one very good year ERA+-wise. The category is not a perfect tool out of that era, but the dominance also wasn't quite there.

1. Tom Seaver (ne) -- The cream of a great crop of pitchers. I have him as the best between Grove and Clemens
2. Pete Rose (ne) -- Very Very Good for a Very Very long time. Even great for a few years which quells all my doubts about him. That other stuff is a mess. Looking forward to putting him behind us.
3. Bobby Grich (ne) -- Hit like Doyle and fielded like Gordon. That puts him well ahead of this backlog.
4. Larry Doyle (2) -- MVP deadball second baseman. Position player cornerstone of the 1911-13 Giants pennant dynasty. Hit like an OF-er.
5. John McGraw (3) -- Great high-OBP 3B of the 1890s.
6. Gavvy Cravath (4) -- Top-notch corner OF-er of the 1910s. With MLE credit, he is at least on par with guys like Kiner.
7. Dick Redding (5) -- Great fireballer of the 1910s. His weak 1920s NeL numbers should not take away from his fine early play.
8. Roger Bresnahan (6) -- High OBP C-OF of the 1900s. Playing time and positional classification issues have kept him out of the HOM so far.
9. Charlie Keller (7) -- With war credit, his peak ranks right up with guys like Kiner. Will he get into the HOM before the great flood of expansion era hitters clogs the backlog?
10. Charley Jones (8) -- Unfairly blacklisted early hitting star.
11. Al Rosen (9) -- For five years, he was one of the greatest hitting 3B of all time.
12. Pete Browning (10) -- Another short-career high peak hitter. These guys used to be just off my ballot, but they've percolated into points positions.
13. Bob Elliott (11) -- Excellent 3B of the 40s and early 1950s.
14. Mickey Welch (12) -- Sure he was overrated, but we've been inducting guys like him from other eras.
15. Frank Chance (13) -- Great high OBP 1B of the dead ball era.
16-20. Chance, Roush, Fingers, Lombardi, BJohnson,
21-25. Fox, Beckley, Trouppe, FHoward, Cash,
26-30. Leach, Bando, JWynn, Cepeda, Singleton, Brock,
31. Staub

1. Tom Seaver (new) RA+ equivalent 330-201. The best pitcher of the 60's/70's/80's; inner circle. This project doesn't require us to compare him to Alexander, Spahn, et al.2. Pete Rose (new) No boycott. The best leadoff hitter of his own time (ahead of Brock), and one of the best leadoff hitters of all time. A career voter's candidate.3. Bobby Grich (new) A balanced candidate, offense and defense both. Would place ahead of several already elected second basemen, notably including Gordon and Doerr.4. Larry Doyle (2, 2, 5, 4, 2) Big hitter in low scoring times - nearly as good a hitter as the backlog outfielders. Mediocre defense, but occupied the position for a long time. And no, I don't try to understand WARP.5. Quincy Trouppe (3, 3, 6, 5, 3) More so even than most Negro Leaguers, a lot of this is guesswork. But I've been convinced for a while.6. Jimmy Wynn (5, 5, 8, 7, 4) An unstable, short career, and an interrupted prime. A HoMer shouldn't have a year like Wynn's 1971 right in the heart of his career. And yet Wynn's good years were so good (hidden as they were by context) that here I am putting him ahead of the far steadier Van Haltren.7. George Van Haltren (6, 6, 9, 8, 5) He did accomplish quite a bit in his career.8. Tommy Bridges (8, 8, 11, 10, 6) RA+ PythPat 190-124. Walters had a higher peak, but Bridges was a terrific pitcher.9. Bucky Walters (10, 9, 12, 11, 7) Offense-adjusted RA+ PythPat 197-148. More peak than Bridges, but the one thing RA+ doesn't account for directly is defensive support and he seems to have had plenty of that - so I knocked him down a couple of notches.10. Orlando Cepeda (4, 4, 7, 6, 8) The Baby Bull. Cha-Cha. There are plenty of places to find fault: indifference to defense, selfishness about his role with the Giants, injury history, early decline. But the early decline sticks out because the start was so good. And his NL was a strong league.11. Norm Cash (7, 7, 10, 9, 9) One year does not make a peak (or a prime). But oh, what a year. Actually, he's on my ballot as a career candidate, although missing games in each year whittles away at his career value.12. Frank Howard (11, 10, 13, 12, 10) Instead of talking about what he might have accomplished in another time and place, I'll talk about the value of what he did do in run-scarce circumstances.13. Lou Brock (14, 12, 15, 14, 13) Low-peak, career-value candidate, severely underrated by OPS+, but of little defensive value.14. Sal Bando (15, 13, 16, 15, 14) A hair ahead of Bob Elliott.15. Bob Elliott (16, 14, 17, 16, 15) Roughly the equivalent of Dixie Walker as a hitter, plus 1300+ games of pretty good 3B.
16. Tony Perez (new) A little less a hitter (mostly that's a about prime-shoulder seasons) than Staub, did play a fair amount of 3B.
17. Rusty Staub (----, 12) Reggie Smith plus some hang-around time. Not Frank Howard's peak, but some peak anyway.
18. Luis Tiant (-, 15, 18, 17, 16) RA+ equivalent 224-164. A 60's pitcher who re-invented himself as a 70's pitcher. A major participant in the 1968 "year of the pitcher" festivities. But it's the 70's career that has more value - and more reason for caution, as we try to figure out how many 70's pitchers are worthy.
19. Reggie Smith (-, 16, 19, 18, 17) A very, very good player who always seemed to wind up on winning teams.
20. Jake Beckley (17, 17, 20, 19, 18) Not much peak, long career. Was he really better than Vernon? Maybe defense, maybe a position-scarcity argument. Offensively, I don't see it.
21. Ken Singleton (---, 20, 19) A much better candidate than contemporary opinion would have made him. Earl Weaver's kind of hitter. But we can't let our enthusiasm for another unrecognized ballplayer overcome the fact that he's just another "bat," another corner outfielder of limited defensive value. Compared to Reggie Smith, he's got the better peak but less career - and I am more of a career voter. So he goes behind Smith. And as for that peak: I like Hondo's better.
22. Rollie Fingers (----, 20) I'm still struggling with whether a relief pitcher can really amass enough value in so few innings. Mostly, I think they can't.
23. Gene Tenace (--, 21, 22, 21) Only half a catcher, but a better hitter than our other half-catchers (Bresnahan, Schang)
24. Dick Redding (18, 18, 22, 22, 22)
25. Luis Aparicio (19, 19, 23, 23, 23) More games at SS than anyone else, 500 SB with a good percentage.
26. Bobby Bonds (20, 20, 24, 24, 24) I like leadoff hitters, so I want to vote for him. But it's just not quite enough career. Enough peak could overcome that objection, but he doesn't have Jimmy Wynn's peak.
27. Hugh Duffy (21, 21, 25, 25, 25) Nothing new to say after all these years.
28. Rabbit Maranville (22, 22, 26, 26, 26) Glove and career length.
29. Mickey Vernon (23, 23, 27, 27, 27) Another loooong career 1st baseman, searching for a peak.
30. Nellie Fox (24, 24, 28, 28, 28) Nearly 2300 games at 2B, with extreme in-season durability. When I run his adjusted RCAA, a 10-year stretch in the middle of his career outshines his career as a whole, and even that 10-year stretch is only in the neighborhood of Stanky, Huggins, and Myer. All he really has over the likes of Doerr, Gordon, and Rizzuto is career length.

Roush would be #32, after Rizzuto. Both Roush and Keller have playing time issues.

Cesar Cedeño: Early indications of superstardom that faded away. In the end, I rank him well behind his predecessor, Wynn. An interesting recent comp: Andruw Jones, although Cedeño arrived with more of a bang and Andruw has retained more value and will outlast him.

George Foster: I've got Bobby Veach and Dixie Walker as comps, with Roger Maris in there somewhere.

Vida Blue: A great early season, a good career. RA+-equivalent record 202-169. I like Happy Jack Chesbro as a comp (182-140).

Toby Harrah: A better hitter than Ken Boyer, not that that's everything. Waits in line behind Bando and Elliott.

Dave Kingman: How bad a baseball player is it possible to be with more than 400 HR? Here's the answer. Not remotely close to being as good as George Foster or Dusty Baker, and those guys aren't candidates.

explanation for players not on my ballot
Dick Redding, and Trouppe barring new evidence not one will make my ballot (the HoF vote has absolutely no bearing on my vote )
Jimmy Wynn don’t buy the Houston logic
Charley Jones no black list points
Charle Keller I’m not giving him WWII or minor league credit of MVP seasons like others.
Bobby Grich would rank higher if his offensive and defensive peaks were aligned may make my pHoM one day

Eric, neither Larkin nor Alomar are even eligible for the Hall of Fame yet so it's not exactly accurate to call them overlooked.

Good point! My impression is that they may not be held in high enough esteem by baseball writers to be elected by the BBWAA when their time comes, but there's no point complaining about HoF omissions that haven't happened yet..

3. Rollie Fingers (3-new, PHoM 1991)—there’s no uber-stat, no number that says Fingers is #3 among this backlog, though I do see him as the #3 reliever ever as of 1991 (not necessarily eligible as of 1991, but in our knowledge base as of 1991). With that in mind, I go back to Chris Cobb’s old test—who do you want in the HoM? And on that simple basis, subjective as it is, I want the #3 reliever of all-time (through 1991), who happens to be Rollie Fingers, in the HoM rather than the #15-20-25 at another position; or if that’s not good enough, there’s always the ‘stache

I mostly use win shares, and try to look at the total value of the player’s career, with recognition that big seasons are more valuable in getting your team to the pennant than steady production.

1) TOM SEAVER - If had ended up in Atlanta in that mini-lottery they had for his signing rights I bet Phil Niekro would have taught him the knuckler and then he would have really had a long career. J
2) PETE ROSE - 547 Win Shares, six MVP type seasons, 15 seasons 20+ Win Shares.Seaver just a little bit better, mostly due to big seasons. When I became a baseball fan/card collector, Rose was a third baseman, so I often think of him that way.
3) BOBBY GRICH 329 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 seasons 20+ Win Shares. In the top 15 second basemen of all-time, which throws you to the top of the ballot.
4) EDD ROUSH – 314 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 7 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Edd is better than Wynn. More career win shares, with out any schedule adjustment. Played his whole career in center field, while Wynn spent 1/3 of his career elsewhere while Ron Davis and Roland Office played center. Significant lead in both black and gray ink – both played in generally poor hitters parks.
5) TONY PEREZ 349 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Hits all my targets for a top of the ballot candidate, long career, big seasons, a top 20 player at his position.
6) JIMMY WYNN – 305 Win Shares, four MVP type seasons, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Why I think Jimmy Wynn is better than Edd. PRO+ is slightly higher. Played in a tougher environment, especially when you add in the Federal League. While both played in poor hitters parks, Wynn’s style was more adversely affected by the Astrodome than Redland/Crosley Field hurt singles hitting Roush.
7) TOMMY LEACH – 328 Win Shares, only one MVP type season, 8 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good peak, excellent defensive player at third and in centerfield.
8) NELLIE FOX –304 Win Shares, two MVP type seasons, 9 seasons 20+ Win Shares. Good Black Ink and Gray Ink scores. Good defender at a key defensive slot.
9) ROGER BRESNAHAN Best catcher of his era. Like Leach a combo-position player that is hard to sum up what his contributions were, because he doesn’t nest into one position.
10) PHIL RIZZUTO – with a conservative 60 or so win shares during the war, I move him ahead of Sewell. Same arguments as Nellie Fox, only with a 3 year hole in his career, plus a bad return to MLB in 1946.
11) SAL BANDO - I believe he was better than Ken Boyer, but his home parks helped disguise it. The big seasons are what puts him ahead of Boyer.
12) ALE OMS Based on the info we have I would consider him just above the in/out line for outfielders.
13) LOU BROCK – 348 Win Shares, three MVP type seasons, 11 straight seasons 20+ Win Shares. As a career voter I’ll put him here. Batting leadoff he had great opportunity to rack up counting stats.
14) VIC WILLIS - an old favorite of mine, huge win share total, big seasons. Whenever I go to a more mechanical system he pops up the charts.
15) QUINCY TROUPPE - slotting him above Thurman Munson in the all time catcher ratings slides him into my ballot. I feel comfortable that he is ahead of Howard, Schang and Lombardi.

Disclosures:

Charlie Keller – four MVP type seasons, I am not comfortable figuring MVP type seasons for 1944 and 1945. If you give him 30 win share seasons those two years I can see how you have him near the top of the ballot.

Jake Beckley – behind Cepeda, in the mass of players off my ballot between 25 and 50.

Rollie Fingers – not convinced that there is enough leverage available to make his career and peak values big enough to put him on the ballot. I have been thinking about what the minimum amount of career win shares it would take to make my ballot. Koufax has the fewest of any player I have voted for, 194 and he had 3 MVP type seasons.

Newbies – Cesar Cedeno – several centerfielders ahead of him. His best comp has to be Rueben Sierra, right? I mean career arc wise.

Toby Harrah – same career win share total as Bob Elliot. His main problem is he was about the 6th best third baseman of his generation – Schmidt, Brett, Bell, Sal Bando, Ron Cey, maybe others.

1) TOM SEAVER: Some of my baseball pals think of the 70's pitchers as the Ryan or Carlton generation. I've always thought of it as the Seaver generation.

2) BOBBY GRICH: If WARP is right, then the other Hall (and his contemporaries) missed a really great player. And the combination of his score on my OPS+ system and his defensive reputation don't suggest that WARP is wrong. Fox over Grich? Why?

3) QUINCY TROUPPE: Hopefully on the track to election now. What we know about him is good.

4) ALEJANDRO OMS: Great career, nice peak too.

5) GAVVY CRAVATH: There's still room for outfielders that hit like him.

6) JIMMY RYAN: With Hugh Duffy discussed in last year's results thread, I hope that inspires more people to go and take another look at Ryan.

7) JIMMY WYNN: The Jimmies have been reunited, with Boyer taken from between them. I like his prime enough to look past what's outside it.

8) TONY LAZZERI: Why was he cast aside by the electorate?

9) BOB JOHNSON: Minor league credit cancels out war demerit. The result is an outfielder just above the borderline.

10) CHARLEY JONES: One of the trickiest players to evaluate, but if you give him blacklist credit, he´s a good one.

11) ROLLIE FINGERS: He stays in this area, at least for now.

12) LUIS TIANT: I wouldn´t be surprised if the HOM in/out line ended up being drawn across the small space that separates him from Pierce and (reliever-adjusted) Fingers.

13) GENE TENACE: At least he was allowed to catch over 50% of his games. That, with his offense, makes him a valuable player.

14) JIM FREGOSI: A shortstop who could hit (at least during his Angel prime), during a long era when they were few and far between.

15) JAKE BECKLEY: The career man is back. Really, how much more discussion we need on him? :-)

Nellie Fox: How is he that much better than all the little hitting, glovemen MIFs (not Aparicio but, say, Bancroft)? Saying he was the most valuable sub-100 OPS+ player is something like "World's tallest midget" to me.

Charlie Keller: At the very last time, I chose Beckley over him for #15. Their offensive value is similar on my system, so he´s definitely #16 now.

Edd Roush: Playing time issues here. I often like to group him with the 1890's centerfielders, and he's in between Ryan and GVH/Duffy. May sneak on a ballot sometime, but I don't know if he'll be ahead of Keller and Browning.

NEWBIES:

Pete Rose: Boycotted. He would be #2 without the boycott.

Tony Perez: He was #15 for a little while, but the recent discussion on his thread is making me think WARP overrates his 3B defense, so I dropped him a bit.

Toby Harrah: On a mix of HoVG third basemen. His bat isn't good enough to compensate his relative lack of glove.

Cesar Cedeño: He's not too far from Duffy, but that's not a complement on my system. A few good years do not a prime make.

I consider myself a prime voter, using a combination of OPS+/PA, ERA+/IP, and WS on a season-by-season basis. I also give weight to underrepresented eras and positions.

1. Tom Seaver
2. Pete Rose

Seaver, of course, finished his career with the 1986 Boston Red Sox-- the same year 23-year-old Roger Clemens pitched his first full season, and won his first Cy Young. Talk about passing the torch…

Even if Rose had retired after his last useful season (1981, when he led the league in hits and posted a 119 OPS+), he still would have had 3,697 hits, fourth all-time. Remarkable career, but obviously never as good as Seaver in his prime.

3. Charley Jones
4. Jake Beckley

There is a group of sluggers in the backlog who have roughly the same resume: about 300 career WS (with credits and adjustments); a career OPS+ 150 or therebouts, with a high somewhere in the 170s; eight or nine prime years (with various war/minor league credits); not a lot of defensive value. This group includes Gavvy Cravath, Charlie Keller, Frank Howard, Pete Browning (with AA adjustments), Mike Tiernan; Sam Thompson, already in the HoM, also fits in this group. All these guys have an argument for induction, but I think Jones is a cut above. He also had a high peak, but a longer prime (with blacklisted credit) and better defense than anyone except maybe Keller. Although I don’t give credit for any seasons before 1876, I do suspect that his late arrival in organized baseball was due to geographical factors.

Over the past thirty years Beckley has finished between seventh and sixteenth in the balloting, 25 times between eighth and thirteenth (12th place is his median finish). He keeps hanging around the end of the ballot, but never makes much movement up or down. With fifteen elections left, it will be very interesting to see if he makes it. You would think so, but…

5. Jimmy Wynn
6. Bobby Grich

The sabermetric love children of the 1970s. They’re pretty identical in value, but I like Wynn’s prime just a tad more.

7. Vic Willis
8. Bucky Walters

Willis had 4000 IP with an ERA+ of 118 (and seasons of 167, 155, and 154). That’s comparable to Faber (4086/119) and Lyons (4161/118), and a whole lot better than Ruffing (4344/109). While I recognize that Walters’ 1939-’42 peak was helped by outstanding defenses behind him, he also pitched well during and immediately after the war, when his outstanding defenses were either in the service or growing old.

9. Nellie Fox
10. Bob Elliott

Boyer’s election gives us another fifties infielder, bringing us to six. (Boyer, Jackie, Pee Wee, Mathews, and Banks; Musial at 1B from 1955; also technically Killebrew and Robinson, but Killer wasn’t established as a full-time player until ’59, and Brooksie until 1960). That’s still too few for a decade of high quality, integrated play. We also have no 2B after 1952, when Jackie moved to LF. Rose arrives on the scene (as I was reminded) in 1963, so that would be about an eleven year gap. Fox’s career—over 2600 hits and 300 WS—gets him on the ballot.

It’s hard for me to see the difference between Bob Elliott (287 WS, 124 OPS+, 92.7 WARP1) and Ken Boyer (279 WS, 116 OPS+, 95.9 WARP1; not that I really care about WARP). We’ve only elected seven 3B who debuted before 1950, which seems a little paltry for eighty years of professional baseball

11. Roger Bresnahan
12. Gavvy Cravath

We have a twenty year gap at catcher from 1891-1911. Bresnahan was in the top six in OPB seven times from 1903-1914; he did equally well in another five seasons, but didn’t have the PA’s to qualify for the title. That’s an impressive run for a catcher. Cravath averaged a 161 OPS+ from ages 32-36, and the data from the minor leagues suggests that was not a fluke.

13. Tommy Leach
14. Ken Singleton
15. Eddie Ciccote

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS by no means warrants automatic induction, but is impressive for a primarily defensive player.

I’m throwing Singleton some love. If I’m going to vote for a 300 WS OF, I like voting for the guy with nine top ten OBP finishes. Looking ahead, it doesn’t seem like there are many 1970s outfielders heading for induction. Stargell and Yastzremski are in, although they played a lot of 1B in the decade; Reggie and Winfield are coming; then there’s a bunch of guys—Parker, Rice, Lynn, Dewey, Bonds Sr.—clumped together. I think I like Singleton better than the rest, although I haven’t given Cobra or Dewey a complete look yet.

Eddie Ciccote and Pete Rose debut on the same ballot…I guess I’m in a forgiving mood. I’ve avoided voting for Cicotte for sixty-six years, but we’re running out of viable pitchers in the backlog, and his peak is just ridiculous: ERA+ of 186, 175, 174; and led the league IP in two of those seasons.

Charlie Keller See Jones comment. Currently #21. I don’t give minor-league credit to twenty-one year olds, although he does receive full war credit. That puts him in a glut of outfielders with similar arguments.

Edd Roush Had some playing time issues. I give candidates from underrepresented positions/eras more weight; Roush was a contemporary of Cobb, Speaker, Charleston, and Torriente. That doesn’t remove him from consideration, but it doesn’t exactly lend a sense of urgency for his candidacy, either.

Rollie Fingers I’m an ERA+/Win Shares guy. Fingers does not look good using either system, although I am taking Joe’s data seriously. I definitely think Fingers is a guy we should take our time with, rather than elect him in two or three ballots.

Quincey Trouppe One of the really interesting finds of this project…heck, why *aren’t* I voting for him? You know, with all due respect to Dr. C—who has been an invaluable contributor—at the end of the day, I just don’t trust the Mexican league MLE’s enough, and the war makes things even messier.

Tommy Leach, an old favourite of mine, makes it back onto the ballot after a fifteen-year-or-so absence. 324 career WS by no means warrants automatic induction, but is impressive for a primarily defensive player.

This is an interesting comment - because Leach was one of the focal points of Pittsburgh's "offense" during his career. Early in his Pittsburgh career, Leach hit in the middle of the order (usually sixth, sometimes fifth behind Wagner), but later on he moved to the #2 spot. Generally, he was the third-best hitter on the team, behind Clarke and Wagner.

1) Tom Seaver - Best pitcher we've seen since Spahn
2) Pete Rose - He's a scumbag but that's not what this project is about.

3) Bobby Grich - Terrific defender, great bat for a 2B, easily tops the backlog, just behind Brooks Robinson and Ernie Banks among infielders
4) Bob Johnson - Slots behind Zack Wheat all-time. 13 very good to great seasons and another 2 comparable seasons in the PCL. Add those seasons and it's a 135-140 OPS+ in 9200 plate appearances. Above average defender. Beats the pants off the backlog outfielders and I have him ranked ahead of 20 elected outfielders.
5) Luis Tiant - Best pitcher available, compares well to Pierce, Bunning and Marichal
6) Norm Cash - Very good glove to go along with the very good bat.
7) Quincy Trouppe - Best catcher available by far, very good bat for a catcher.
8) Jake Beckley - 10+0 > 5+5 but 5x18 is still worth a lot.
9) Rusty Staub - less defense than Beckley, a couple better seasons with the bat
10) Reggie Smith - I like him better than Wynn because he lasted a little longer
11) Tony Perez - very good glove, Beckley is Perez after smoothing
12) Tommy Bridges - best available war era pitcher and we're short war era pitching
13) Virgil Trucks - significant relief innings pitched, if you're evaluating based on some in-season durablity criteria his relief work will mess that up. Needs (and deserves) war credit to flesh out his numbers.
14) Gavy Cravath - very similar to Cepeda
15) Jim Wynn - had one of the most memorable home runs ever... go over his head.

"Farve, you lump Keller in with OFs like Browning and Howard, who were defensive zeros... Please consider this fact in your evaluation."

I do consider this. I even mentioned in my comment that Jones played better defense than these OF's "except maybe Keller."

"This is an interesting comment - because Leach was one of the focal points of Pittsburgh's "offense" during his career."

I wasn't implying that Leach was a bad hitter, although I can see how my comment might be misunderstood. His career high OPS+ is 136; that's not bad for an early 3B, but he wouldn't sniff my ballot without lots of defensive value. That's what I was trying to say. (Then again, he probably wouldn't sniff my ballot without that career 109 OPS+ either, would he...yeah, time to change my comment).

1992 Ballot
1. Tom Seaver – Elected PHOM in 1992.
2. Charley Jones – Truly great hitter who missed 2 years in his prime. Elected PHOM in 1921.
3. Pete Browning – Great hitter. Elected PHOM in 1925
4. Vic Willis – Very good pitcher. I like him better than Waddell. Elected PHOM in 1945.
5. Dick Redding –Elected PHOM in 1968
6. Bobby Grich – Elected PHOM in 1992.
7. Hugh Duffy – Better than Van Haltren and Ryan, Elected PHOM in 1970
8. Edd Roush – Better than Carey. Elected PHOM in 1975.
9. Burleigh Grimes – Higher peak than Rixey. Elected PHOM in 1961
10. Bucky Walters Very high peak. Elected PHOM in 1972
11. Alejandro Oms – Jumps up some on this ballot. Elected PHOM in 1978.
12. Ed Williamson – He’s back. I was talked into the idea that I overestimated him in the past, but decided I was right the first time. Elected PHOM in 1958
13. Dizzy Dean –Short career, but high peak. Koufax lite. Elected PHOM in 1973.
14. Elston Howard – Underrated. Elected PHOM in 1985
15. Jimmy Wynn – Another time and place he’d be a HOFer. Elected PHOM in 1985

Required DisclosuresKeller and Fingers Just miss my ballotFox Might make my PHOM someday.Beckley Not enough peak value.Trouppe Very good player. Will need to take another look.

New CandidatesPete Rose BoycottedTony Perez Long career, but not enough peak to rate well in my system.George Foster and Vida Blue Nice peak seasons, but not enough prime and career for me.

1. Tom Seaver: No doubt he’s the #1 on this ballot. When people hurl around things like “best pitcher since ww2” or “best righty since Johnson,” it’s clear that he’s an extraordinary pitcher.

2. Pete Rose: He’s ranking here as much on career as anything. Grich is truly much closer than I would ever have imagined. I wish I could come up with a great analogy for Hit King within the realm of culture. Maybe Roman Polanski or Woody Allen? Anyway, he’s a checkered character with a great career, and that’s that for me.

3. Bobby Grich: My keltnerized system ranks him as the 7th best 2B through this ballot. He’s about as meritorious as Gehringer despite a very differently shaped career. He was dominant at his own position as well as in the AL in general, when he and Carew were battling in the mid-1970s for “best in league” honors. Absoutely underrated. Blyleven may not be in the Coop, but he gets 40-50% each year. This guy never saw the light of day. May our upcoming induction of him (somewhere in the next several years) be the first shot in the struggle to bring his memory enough light to get him VC’ed.

4. Quincy Trouppe:
I’ve decided to bump Jones and Trouppe up and Walters down a bit.

Trouppe’s the best catcher available. We’re beginning to find more consensus on this guy, and I hope he’s inducted before 2007. His case seems pretty damned solid to me, and while he’s missing documentation of several years at the beginning of his career, we know that
a) he was playing
b) he was good

So what’s the issue? How’s it different than, say war credit? Not too much different. See my comments in the New Eligibles thread (around #865) for more details.

5. Charley Jones:
Best left fielder available (non-Rose-partial-career-in-LF division). A dominant batter in the 1870s and 1880s with a three-year vacation based on unfair labor practices. I was rereading McVey’s thread this week and it mentioned how Cal escaped the reserve by emigrating westward. And by the look of many other careers of the time and the already mentioned thread, other players may have been fighting with ownership over their rights, their pay, and other matters. As Hulbert and company tightened their grip, episodes like the Jones controversy weren’t isolated, but rather a part of an era in which players were now battling owners for the first time. (That era perhaps beginning with the Force case and extending to the reserve agreement, the Brotherhood, the Feds, Flood, and Messersmith-McNally.) It was in the air, and Jones wasn’t the only player embroiled in it one way or another. A continuous career would already have him in the HOM.

6. Larry Doyle:
Dominant 2B of the NL of the 1910s, good peak/prime, and an argument for having been the best player in the NL for a brief time.

7. Edd Roush:
I just don’t exactly know what to think about the third-tier CFs except that I’m finding Roush creeping upwards lately. Roush, Duffy, Ryan, Van H., Wynn. They are so friggin’ close. As I’m coming to rely more on the Keltner-type system and it’s support of candidates who exhibit a lot of dominance over league and position. Roush was ever so slightly more dominant than Duffy, so I’d like to give him the nod. Though, in fairness, I think that Duffy had slightly better positional peers. Roush battled Max Carey with a little Dode Paskert and Lloyd Waner tossed in too. Duffy had Ryan, VH, Hamilton, and Griffin in CF, plus some fine players at the corners when he played there. Mike W., you owe me a few favors now... ; )

8. Wilbur Cooper:
Dominant NL portsider of the late 1910s-early 1920s. This guy was in the (retroactive) Cy Young chase every single year for a good long while in the late teens and early 1920s, battling Old Pete, Hippo, and Dolf for several years. I like pitchers who show dominance for a good stretch, and he’s one.

9. Hugh Duffy:
His combo of peak/prime is very good and he’s got enough career to stave off the Ryan/GVH/Wynn gang.

10. Pete Browning:
Fabulous hitter. True he benefited from weak competition in the early AA, but also true that he hit great in the PL and early 90s NL. I’m comfortable that he was a sufficiently good enough hitter to have a ballot spot near the other CFs.

11. Tommy Leach:
Pick your poison. As a CF, he’s not got enough peak to get on the ballot. But as a 3B, he’s a fabulous career candidate with enough at the top end to be among the top dozen 3Bs. Splitting it down the middle, he’s a 3B/CF hybrid with outstanding seasons at both positions, a nice, long career, and enough peak/prime to emerge as a downballot candidate.

12. Sal Bando:
There’s evidence on all sides here. Some evidence suggests that Bando is obviously inferior to Boyer and maybe to Elliott. Some of that evidence, however, is based in WARP, and given some of the discussion going on lately about it, I’m really down on it as a useful information source, and we already know it has issues with replacement for fielding that may or may not skew its findings. And anyway, is FRAA bulletproof either? I don’t know. Of course other evidence doesn’t include the DH factor.

But there’s very strong evidence in Bando’s favor compared to those other guys. Namely that he, unlike they, was at some point arguably the best player in his league (early 70s), and that he dominated his position for a long period of time. Now we often reflect on the fact that the AL before and somewhat during Bando was a wasteland for 3B, but that misses the point that
a) the same is true for Brooks, who easily won election with a weaker peak/prime
b) the same would be true for other pet 3B candidates like Pie Traynor
c) the same is true for Elliott whose main competition was the very good but not durable Whitey Kurowski, the good not great P.H. Jones, the WW2 portion of Stan Hack’s career, and a sliver of Eddie Mathews
d) there’s room for all of them.

Now, I’ll grant, I’m a WS voter. Boyer and Bando look very similar, but WS sees what I see: more dominance at the peak end for Bando. So that’s where my vote is going.

13. Bucky Walters:
Dominant peak, good prime, pretty good career. He was having a great peak before WW2. I like peak in my pitchers, and he’s got it.

14. Ken Singleton:
Well, you knew it would happen at some point. Here’s Singleton. He’s the best player in the AL of the very late 1970s, and a good long while best RF in the AL. And while he might not have much defensive value, he’s doing a great job of walking and hitting with power, lots of SEC. Plenty of All-Star and MVP type seasons. I’m becoming more comfortable with the conclusions of my Keltne-based system, and this vote is reflective of that.

15. Nellie Fox:
I have a tendency to prefer “my kind of player” and Fox isn’t that kind of player. But truth be told, he’s the second-best backlog 2B on the ballot, and he’s not very far behind Doyle, and he’s among the top 15 2Bs we’ve seen so far. Those are excellent credentials. He also exhibits good positional dominance and was a many-time All-Star type player. He wouldn’t be the HOM’s best player, but he’s a very good selection. I did hear Chris's concerns about extra PAs, however, and I'm still cogitating on that. But for now, I'm loathe to bump him off when I haven't given other leadoff men similar consideration.

NEW GUYS
Tony Perez: As I mentioned in his thread, “a borderliner’s borderliner.” I don’t see too much difference between him and Rusty. Perez is a little better, agreed, but it’s not by much. Perez would rank about 19th both at 1B and 3B in my system, and that’s just a couple slots too low to make my ballot (most backloggers being 10-14 at their respective positions, currently).

Cesar Cedeno: Great player for a few years then OK for a while. The Vada Pinson of his generation, perhaps. Anyway, seems like a troubled life with a strange career to match. Too bad he didn’t keep it together longer. I wonder about his age. A member of the All-Roman Emperor’s Team:

Toby Harrah: Closer to my ballot than you want to believe. Just a smidge behind PAY-rez. If Harrah had any defensive ability/value at all, he’d be an easy lower-rung HOMer. In fact, Grich and he would be peas in a pod of sorts. Instead, Harrah’s on the outside.

George Foster: Closer to George Foster than Sox fans want to admit….

Vida Blue: Oh, what could have been. The Neft/Cohen encyclopedia had this line, “Fast and Blue and Wait Til Next Year.” Too bad next year came and went.

NOT SO NEW GUYS
Wynn:
Wynn never dominated his league like the cluster of 1890s CF did, and that’s pretty much the difference. And they played in a very strongly concentrated league too. Like with Stargell, I don’t have any great opposition to his probable election, but I don’t feel compelled to vote for him either.

Keller: I don’t give minor league credit to Keller, which he’d need to be prominent on my ballot. As is, with war credit, he’s as good as Ralph Kiner, Since I never cared much for Kiner, well, that’s that.

Rollie Fingers: My niece early in her life referred to digits as findars, which is what I call Fingers in my head. The same way that I refer to Sandy Alomar Jr as Shalomar and subsequently his brother as Ralomar. I could go on but I’ll spare us all the indignity.

Anyway, I’m not voting for Fingers. The chart I posted on the 1991 discussion thread (around post #220) was what cemented my decision. I was leaning that way because I noted that Fingers was never dominant over his league in the way that guys like Gossage and Sutter were. He never was the best RP in the league over any three-year span in his career, and I value that highly as a marker. Meantime, I’m not sure how I feel about IHR. There’s rather mixed evidence on it when you stop and look at it, and without greater contextualizing, I’m not sure how valuable the information is. Fingers’ LEV doesn’t seem all that impressive to me, particularly not in his peak seasons (and peak is very important for RP), and his effectiveness (ERA+) ain’t sharp. It’s not like his defenses aren’t good either. I’m not wild about the idea that a career reliever is a good HOM candidate, and as you all know, I have very grave concerns about using post-season stuff. I just don’t know how many HOM relievers there ought to be, but right now, I feel as though the number is 4-8 but with four-six being more likely. Wilhelm’s in the HOM lounge already, Gossage not far behind. I’m not certain I think voting the second-best RP of any era in is a good idea, and I’m not supporting Fingers.

Jake Beckley: If Jake Beckley were at a party, and we exchanged a glance over the punch bowl, I’d just have to tell him he’s not my type. I mean first of all I’m married, to a woman, and second of all he’d be horribly decomposed by now. But as a career-only candidate with no real peak value to speak of, I’m not inclined toward his kind of player at all. That said, in the conversion to the new system he rises from like 40th all-time at his position to about 25-30th all time, which I’m telling all of you so that you understand I’m not just knee-jerking anti-careerist throwaway lines. I’m actually thinking them up carefully … but seriously, I do value peak and prime above career, and Beckley has little of the firrst and, consequently, not too much of the second by comparison to other candidates whom I prefer. It’s that simple.

1992 ballot. Quite a few candidates to pick through on this one. The system used for my ranking entails a little bit of everything: WS, WARP, OPS+/ERA+, positional adjustments, even some contemporary opinion. My hope by adding in all this material is to get the most complete picture. The results of this work tend to favor prime/peak players over career types but that is not 100% tried and true.

1. Tom Seaver (-). Clemens just a generation earlier? Not quite, I would have him a smidge lower but you still want him to pitch for you. And I did enjoy the dirt on the push off leg.

2. Pete Rose (-). Is that the Hit King trying to sell memorabilia down in the discussion thread? Get him outta here!

3. Bobby Grich (-). Larry Doyle with a better glove, good enough to play SS in a pinch. Good OBA skills gives nice bump to offensive value. Well ahead of the rest of the ballot.

4. Dick Redding (2). Career was long – decent peak along the way. Outstanding fastball in his day according to James/Neyer book. So he didn’t get into the Hall of Fame; maybe the information collected by HOF committee wasn’t pertinent to Redding’s prime years. He deserves some WWI credit, thus patching up a bald spot in his prime years.

5. Norm Cash (3). Count me as one who sees him as a viable candidate. Maybe the Tigers used him optimally by sitting him vs leftys. Still did a lot of good things. You can’t throw away his peak year even though contradicts the rest of his work.

6. Tommy Leach (4). Combination hot corner/centerfielder could field a little, hit a little. Second all-time in inside-the-park home runs to Wahoo Sam Crawford.

7. Bobby Bonds (6). Even with the constant trades, drinking problem and whatnot his combination of speed/power made him a very valuable player. He wasn’t the next Mays and some people never got over it.

8. Tony Mullane (7). Old time pitcher who threw plenty well, a good hitter to boot. Had some playing time issues since he missed seasons due to being blacklisted. Goes on the all-Nickname team as well.

9. Reggie Smith (9). The other Reggie wasn’t half bad. Played some CF before moving down the defensive spectrum, hitting along the way. Not real durable but lots of value when in the lineup.

10. Roger Bresnahan (10). Work was good behind the plate, also shagged some flies some years. This was in centerfield so he must have been somewhat athletic out there. Fills a short gap during the turn of the century where we have lacked a backstop.

11. Bob Johnson (11). His peak might not be as high as others but at the same time for 13 years in the majors he has the highest floor of anyone. By floor I mean what can we reasonably expect from him in terms of performance. During those 13 years you knew exactly what you got with Bob Johnson – nothing less, rarely more. I guess my system rewards consistency as well as greatness. WARP numbers like him, WS not so much. Over his career his teams underperformed Pythag W-L by 15 games so he loses some Win Shares there.

I’m afraid he’s between the two voting factions. He doesn’t have the peak but was effective longer that the high peak, short career players. He doesn’t have the career but was at a higher production level than the low peak, long career players. Either way, he stacks up nicely compared to the other LFs hanging around.

Indian Bob got a late start (one deserving of 1-2 years of MiL credit), played on bad teams in ballparks that favored pitchers, and got left out of post-war ML baseball while he was still doing well at age 39. 10 years of top 10 performances in OPS+, 106.6 WARP1 for 13 years with no padding on the front or back end.

I guess they were right. While others shot to stardom, collected an MVP, and faded from sight, along rolled Bob Johnson, punching the time clock with excellence far from the spotlight. Forgotten while playing, lost in history. Somewhere Joe Medwick laughs at the fact he got in while his contemporary remains in limbo.

12. Bucky Walters (12). Crunched his value into a few seasons, combined solid pitching with a decent stick. Not too much of a ding for the war year discount.

13. Jimmy Wynn (13). I’ve felt he was close to Reggie Smith, this puts him back in that neighborhood. Peakish argument, was a three true outcome player.

14. Alejandro Oms (14). My thoughts are his career is sketchy based on concrete records but that what has been said about him is quite favorable. Thumbs up for the Cuban.

15. Mickey Welch (15). He’s back! Got a 300 game winner just waiting to be picked up. Did he pitch to the score, thus bringing his other metrics down? I’m leery of that argument but impressed enough for a return to the bottom of the ballot.

Top 10 Returnees: Fox (not top 50), Beckley(#23), Roush(#49), Charley Jones (#24), Browning (#28), Trouppe (#42), Keller (#19), Fingers (#20). Fox is just someone I don’t get. Maybe fills a positional/era gap but I don’t hold to that rigorous “we must have a player covering years X through Y”. Beckley – never has so much been written about one player. Good and played a long time, a great season or two would have meant election by now. Roush is falling through the CF glut. Jones and Browning have received ballot spots in the past from me and might again. The hitting is there, just questions about which members of the OF glut to ballot. Trouppe is neither my favorite catcher or NeL player so he is waiting below. Keller gets 1 year MiL credit and the war years as well. I’m just not as willing to give those years the complete peak value needed to reach the ballot yet. Slightly overrated by the great teams he played on, at least from a WS perspective. Fingers is the best reliever available but not so valuable as long term starters. Overall, no qualms except maybe Fox and he did have the weak competition argument similar to Sewell. Others buy it, not me .

New guys: The 3 on top of course. Perez debuts at 21 and has some legs to his argument, especially if you consider some time spent at 3B. Better than Staub. Cedeno is 41, a early peak leads to the what-if scenario. Still some value there patrolling CF and using speed in the swift 70s. Foster, Harrah, Blue, all looked at but not around for balloting.

Peak, prime, career....all valid qualifiers for candidates but a few questions arise as I review voters recent ballots.
If a voter likes Indian Bob Johnson, as many folks do, why no love for Chuck Klein?

Chuck had a five year run from 1929 thru 1933 that was pretty sensational; .359 BA;
.413 OBP; .635 Slg %; 160 OPS+; averaged 46 doubles and 36 HRs.
Granted he began to fall back toward the rest of the league at age 30 but he was still a 121 OPS+ hitter for the next 6 years.
That's an 11 year prime where he hit 280+ HRs and had an OPS+ of 129.
Not Babe Ruth, but certainly Bob Johnson.
Bob and Chuck are within 1% point of one another for career OPS+; 137 vs 138
Plus Chuck was MVP in 1932 and runner-up in '31 and '33.
I'd think peak/prime voters would be all over both Bob & Chuck.

2)B. Grich-Not a fan of the sabr-fetish underrated players (often times, the fetish goes too far), but what a peak, what a prime...

3) C. Keller-Amazing peak AND amazing prime (with credit). Don't really understand the arguments against him other than "I don't give that much credit". Oh well, his day will hopefully come.

4) D. Dean-Best pitcher alive for 3 years. Should get the vote of every peaker, and no careerer.

5) R. Fingers-How to place him? Obvously great at preventing runs to score as a reliever. How much value that has, I dunno. No no-brainer HoMer's below this point, so this is where i stuck 'im.

6) G. Cravath-The home park is responsible for some of his value, so not in the vicinity of Keller, but I can't take off too much for exploiting the Baker Bowl, and without a park correction would probably be in the top 5

7) E. Roush- 3 consecutive years as top 3 hitter in the league with near-average defense in CF, no player below him had that kind of hitting peak at a D-position. I'm aware of the PT issues, but the rate is enough to make up for it.

8) A. Rosen- Had arguably the best 3B season of all-time, and it was no fluke..he had the best peak on the ballot (other than Dean) and while hs career was short, within each season his durability was fine.

9) P. Browning- Loses many points for drunkeness, and his negative contributions on everything but offense, league-quality and durability issues. But a hell of a hitter, and regarded as a Great while he was playing.

10) E. Howard- Blocked, moved, token-ed by the Yankees. How many catchers have hit like Howard at his peak? How many of them aren't in the HOM? (probably Bresnahan)

11) T. Munson- Victim of homepark, vastly underrated by OPS+. Better than all catchers but Howard, better relative to other catchers than, say Cravath is to other corner OF, depending on how you evaluate Bresnahan.

12) C. Klein- Top 3 hitter in the NL for 3 consecutive years. Are we really going to keep every great from the Baker Bowl out of the HoM?

13) B. Mazeroski- Best defensive 2B in baseball history. Couldn't hit a lick, but was worth 25-30 runs a year in the field! I think he's been grossly underrated by the electorate.

14) N. Fox- Identical value to Maz, just 10 runs less in the field and 10 more at the plate.

This is an interesting comment - because Leach was one of the focal points of Pittsburgh's "offense" during his career. Early in his Pittsburgh career, Leach hit in the middle of the order (usually sixth, sometimes fifth behind Wagner), but later on he moved to the #2 spot. Generally, he was the third-best hitter on the team, behind Clarke and Wagner.
-- MWE

Yes, and his 19-aughts batting record is very good. more than a little pop in his bat. Jimmy Williams jump to the American League gave him a chance and he showed that OPS+ 56 was not the real Tommy Leach. OPS+ was the real Bones Ely. I wonder whether Leach got a serious trial at SS.

By the way, Tommy Leach is available at baseball-reference for only $10.

Meanwhile Brooks Robinson is not available. Remarkable words from his sponsor: Brooks Robinson: a great third baseman, a great Baltimore Oriole, a great gentleman. Also, he lent me (then a total stranger) his uniform for Halloween 1975. Details can be read in BASEBALL LIVES, by Mike Bryan.

2. Pete Rose (-)--A vile human being with a surprisingly strong peak. At least I was surprised.

3. Bobby Grich (-)--Very close with Browning, but Grich was an infielder so he gets the third spot. He’s gonna have to wait a couple years to get into the PHOM though.

4. Pete Browning (2)--If he played in the PCL in the 00s or the Negro Leagues in the 30s, would he be a HOMer by now? Same as with the Negro Leaguers, the league translations inordinately underrate his peak. Besides, it isn’t like the AA wasn’t a major league. A better gladiator than Russell Crowe. (1927)

14. Jimmy Wynn (13)--Another all-around outfield candidate who gets underrated because he doesn’t stand out in either peak or career. He’s just a little less round than Minoso, Roush or Oms.
(Earl Averill)