Melbourne vs Collingwood Magpies Queen’s Birthday Highlights

The 10th placed Melbourne will host 11th placed Collingwood in the yearly Queen’s Birthday game at the MCG today, with the winner sure to finish Round 12 inside the top 8.

The Dees & the Pies have a couple of things similar, especially when it comes to the ability of their respective midfields to be stronger than their opposition.

Numbers game

Both of them have good numbers when it comes to being victorious in the hard stuff. Melbourne has an average of 3.4 more clearances & 6.8 more contested possessions than their opponents this season where Collingwood has 4.6 & 6.5 in those same categories.

Both convert that into a constructive inside 50 differential, but Collingwood do it better, averaging 8.7 more inside 50s than their opposition this year. Melbourne still averages a strong +5.4 inside 50s each game.

The numbers recommend this comes from Collingwood playing a more direct, higher-risk game with their ball movement, 1 that results in an average of 3 more changes per game than their opponents, on the other hand Melbourne break even there with (-0.1).

Melbourne team

Melbourne do a much better in the marks-inside 50 stakes & also average +2.1 on their opposition in comparison to Collingwood’s +1.9, showing the value of taking the more considered approach.

Comparison

The major difference between the 2 midfields though comes in terms of tackling pressure.

Even though both sides get more of the ball than their opponents, Melbourne average 5more tackles than their opponents, while Collingwood average 5.5 less. The Dees put close to 1.4 more tackles per 100 opposition disposals than Collingwood.

Further comparison shows that the difference between the midfields is also quite close even though both have different strengths.

The Magpies seem more comfortable at willing the ball forward though not with perfect precision, on the other side Melbourne work harder when the opposition has the ball & are classier going ahead.

The numbers point that the Demons have dealt much better with those key absences than Collingwood has. —

Finally, we think Collingwood must better Melbourne’s midfield output by about 25% in order to account for the combination of their backdrops at either end of the ground & the unavailability of Elliott & Wells.

The road to victory for Melbourne could become simple. By preventing Collingwood from dominating in the midfield & taking advantage of their forward-line struggles.