Often Irreverent, Mostly Rational Blog for Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays. One Day, We'll Be Perfect.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Let's Talk About Deck Chairs

So John Farrell thinks the Jays' offense might need a "spark". Well la-di-fucking-duh. Thanks for tuning in, Skip. And don't worry: Once Interleague games are over, you can go right back to worrying about your overstocked bullpen. Maybe even use Mike McCoy as your backup catcher so that you can trim your bench down to a single body to maximize the arms available to you at any given moment.

Sorry...Does it sound like we might have pissed on the wrong side of our Cinnamon Toast Crunch this morning? It certainly feels that way.

Generally, we're the optimist when it comes to the Jays' fortunes, preaching patience and forbearance and the like as the rest of the internet calls for the immediate and swift beheading of anyone who's had a bad week. So we fancy ourselves as the voice of reason (an incredibly immodest stance to take, we realize.) But after the unmitigated shit show of the past few weeks, it's getting harder everyday to watch a team that fields two fourth outfielders as starters everyday, and who supplements that with a second baseman who's forgotten how to hit line drives (and that's how he made it to the big leagues in the first place, for Jimmy's sake!) and a third baseman who hits just slightly better than the pitchers might.

So, yeah. Maybe it's time to reconsider Corey Patterson's spot in the lineup.

(And is it just us, or does Patterson have some sort of charisma and charm that makes managers think of him as a gamer and a guy they have to get in the lineup, in spite of, you know, all the shittiness? "The speedster" gets thrown out six times trying to steal, and yet: "Get him in there! He's a waterbug! A sparkety-fucking-sparky-plug for the offense!")

Hey! Quick flashback, friends: Remember when this team was going to be the Go-Go Jays, running the bases with abandon and keeping pressure on the other pitchers? Well, one key problem with that approach is that you actually have to get on base to make it work. (We'd actually thought last night that a positive in recent weeks was that we hadn't seen the Jays make a lot of needless outs on the basepaths, until it occurred to us that most of the outs are being made at the plate anyways.)

But wait: Wasn't this the best offense in the game just a few short weeks ago? Why yes, it was, fellow traveller. But consider what's happened over that time: Since pounding around Royals pitching for a couple of nights this month, the Jays have posted a .194 team batting average - cut to Jayson Nix asking: "What's wrong with that?" - and a .254 OBP to add to a .326 SLG for a galactically shitteriffic .581 OPS. (Standard arbitrary endpoint caveats apply.)

And over those 13 games, the Jays are averaging 2.4 runs per outing. Also, they are striking out at a higher rate (7.9/game) then they are getting base hits (6.3/game).

We can play along and try to figure out where you slot Aaron Hill to minimize the impact of his popping pretty much everything up to the infield (and for god's sake, don't suggest that he go to the top of the lineup...just stop with all of that tomfoolery), but really, we're getting to a point where we've seen enough of this team to know that outside of Adam Lind and José Bautista, there's not much there.

Yep, I'm usually patient, but I'd rather watch Thames and Gordie-Dougie struggle out there than this cast of DFA all stars. How exactly does having Patterson and Nix play every day help move us to playoff contender in 2012 and beyond?

Until Thames is healthy, I actually want EE at 3B. Hard to see how he could do worse.

Snider and Lawrie get one start in triple-a after the DL. If they don't pass out from dizzyness or lose a limb they're in the Toronto line-up the next day. Patterson-Davis platoon, which I would be severely tempted to turn into a Thames/Loewen platoon if there is any way to move Davis and Patterson. Nix gone because his career numbers aren't good enough and they're way above where he is now. McCoy to LV. Finally, I'd hire an excorcist to remove the ghost of Mario Mendoza who has been haunting Aaron Hill.

Escobar has had a terrible June, along with pretty much everyone. Corey Patterson has reverse platoon splits, except when you look closer, he's terrible against everyone but his bunts go for hits more often against lefties.

I think this is AA's only major failing as a GM so far: his belief that any worthless player can somehow morph into a useful trade chip by putting up half a season's worth of slightly-better-than-career-average numbers. It's almost a shame that he was able to get returns on Buck, Gonzalez, and Gregg because it seems like it gave him the idea that he could do the same with any and all dicarded garbage players he brings in.

I don't understand it; if anyone was willing to give up prospects for trash like Patterson and Nix, how were the Jays able to acquire them so cheaply? Half a season of success isn't going to make any competent GM believe that the player has somehow turned a corner. Look at Bautista; he's been doing it for a solid 1-1/2 seasons now and almost everyone STILL thinks he's a fluke. And really, Escobar is the only thing of any value that another organization had to give up, and the Atlanta side of that trade has been almost universally panned by non-retarded baseball analysts.

To the anonymous commentator defending Aaron Hill, you can quote all the statistics you want to, but consider this: Aaron Hill's best-developed tool is his ability to make outs. Even in his 36 HR season, he led the league in making outs. I'm no Bill James, but I'm pretty sure that's a bad thing.

I don't think we can assume that AA's game plan in bringing in players like Nix or Patterson was to try to get a half-season of decent production and build trade value.

Obviously the best case is that those veterans outperform their career numbers, and build some potential trade value. But if they perform at a lower level, they're still cheap replacement level players that don't make you start the clock early on prospects in a non-contending season.

It's more likely to me that the idea was to have a few guys with MLB experience available to fill some spots, allowing prospects (such as they are) to get more time in the minors.

As frustrating as it is to watch them, I can't disagree completely with bringing them in, given the expectations for the season. The only part I really disagree with is not keeping Snider in the mix, and Cecil to a lesser extent given the emergence of Villanueva, since they had service time already.

Funny, but I thought I checked Aaron Hill's LD% earlier this season, and it was brutal...but there it is: 19(ish)%. I stand corrected.

Still has an OBP of .289, but then again, even in the good years, his OBP was barely above .300.

So: No more cheap shots about pop ups. From here on out, we'll focus on the fact that he doesn't seem to hit the ball hard anymore, and that there are too many parts to his swing. (Stop dropping your hands, Mr. Hill!)

It appears I was mistaken: I could swear I read that Hill led the league in outs made in 2009, but upon further review it turns out he actually finished second with 511 to Orlando Cabrera's league-leading 512. My bad.

What really frustrates as a Jays' fan is not that the team is losing (and the sometimes almost bizarre ways they find to lose - Tim Hudson hitting a two-out, two run homer? 9-21 in day games?), but the use of basically worthless players like Jayson Nix, Corey Patterson, and Rajai Davis.

Davis is 30, Patterson is 31, Nix is the youngest of the lot at 28 (though the worst of a bad bunch). Mike McCoy (another basically useless player) is 30.

All of these guys have OBP less than .300; they're virtually all certain to be worse next year. When the Jays ever contend again, which of these guys is going to still be in the league, let alone on the roster?

I know you have to plan for the future, and that some of the young prospects are hurt (Lawrie) or not ready.

But when one in three guys on the roster is a middle-aged guy who, in his prime, was of dubious value?