Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

The best part of the show was when Joseph Battipaglia said that he is now down to 60% equities and later Barry said that because Joe is bearish now maybe it is time to pick up some long positions for a trade (as a contrarian play)
Joseph Battipaglia’s response was “OK, I am a contrarian indicator for you” and he was about to cry.

Kudlow must have forgot to mention the homebuilders index coming in at 39 today. He criticizes the media for only reporting the bad, yet he continually only pumps the good while discrediting the bad.

And can these people please stop with this BS core inflation at 1.9% crap. It is like they have never shopped for anything for themselves. Total PPI was up .5%, that is 6% annually!!!….how does this constantly get discounted???…Tomorrow’s above estimate CPI will also be discounted due to OER…and in fact I would bet we start seeing that number stripped out as well.

WHERE IS CODY??….if the Nasdaq never recovers maybe he will not appear on the show again…one can only hope!

I’m sorry the good part of the show, the 2nd half roundtable, was pushed back for the partisan capitol hill bickering present in the first half of Kudlow’s show tonight. Too much wasted time there. Perhaps had things been structured otherwise we would have been graced by BR’s sage words on housing and the economy going forwards.

You could also just go ahead and ignore all analysts period? Anytime there is money involved you have to take everything said with a grain of salt: Everything bullish, everything bearish, everthing neutral.

On Kudlow: He’s a permabull, which is ok. I mean he is on BSNBC after all. They cater to retirement investors who usually invest out of their retirement accounts and can only buy (go long) on stocks. If they were bearish on the market, then people wouldn’t be buying stocks, and most likely wouldn’t have much reason to tune in. CNBC has to stay permabullish in order to keep up their viewers watching.

Look at how they analyze the market. They almost never talk about market internals unless they were positive. They always try and find something positive in everything. Look at the last 4 hours of the day. They have Pisani (permabull), Cramer (permabull), and Kudlow (permabull) all essentially back to back. All of them will almost always find the positive spin on everything.

I didn’t watch today, but I’m sure they were touting how the DOW was up 51 points. They’ll never tell you that only 7 of the DOWs 30 components are above their 50 day moving averages. They’ll never that today the new lows outpacing new highs (NYSE 29/200, Nasdaq 28/251) (Source: Briefing.com).

I’m also guessing that if it wasnt for UTX and KO today and their slightly better than expected earnings reports, the DOW would have just been slightly positive.

I honestly feel bad for Bernanke. All these people are going to be brainwashed by these retards (excuse me) on CNBC who continue to blame him for what’s going on with the market. They fail to realize that with each sucessive run higher in this bull market the market internals had been weaker than the prior peaks. They also dont tell you that when the market hit its peak back on 5/10 for the DOW, 5/9 for the S&P and 4/20 for the Nasdaq that we were at or near some heavy resistance for all 3 indexes. They also dont tell you how the $NDX 100 and the Semis, which typically lead the market both peaked back in January.

In other bullish news, Cramer is telling you to stay on the sidelines, maybe buy some PEP or drug store stocks. Has to be a bounce coming along here soon. . .

Umm, the things I’m reading don’t agree.

With last week’s losses, each major U.S. benchmark has broken back under major support. The specific areas fall out as follows:

* The S&P 500 violated its 200-day moving average, currently 1,264.
* The Dow violated its 200-day moving average, currently 10,937.
* The Nasdaq violated support at 2,100; it’s been positioned under its 200-day since May 16.

That means each major U.S. index now holds comfortably under its 200-day moving average, and conventionally, a posture below the 200-day signals a long-term downtrend.
So just on its face, the U.S. markets have reasserted a primary downtrend.
Yet it’s also worth noting that last week’s breakdown followed a failed test of the 50-day moving average — particularly for the Dow and the S&P 500.
And with that failed test, each index notched a “lower high” in July vs. the June high.
That means even setting aside moving averages, the markets appear to be building on the initial May breakdown. A series of “lower highs” — in this case, the May high, the June high and the July high — defines a downtrend.

* * *

Looking ahead, the U.S. markets are less than two weeks from what’s seasonally among the year’s worst-performing months: Over the past 16 years, August has on average been the worst-performing month for the Dow and the S&P, and the second-worst month for the Nasdaq.
That means following last week’s technical breakdown, and with a seasonal headwind in view, caution is probably well advised until a better technical backdrop is established.

But, let me close this post with some Red Meat from the research report following the DHI earnings miss on Friday, brought to you by the Permabulls over at Citigroup:

Overall, we believe D.R. Horton’s announcement could hasten the homebuilding stocks’ descent to 1.0x book value (from 1.13x today), and it will likely cause significant concern and confusion over the next week, before the wave of builder earnings reports arrives. However, it also appears to us that D.R. Horton could be poised to begin a campaign of aggressive share repurchases sooner than originally planned, and that its revised outlook is designed to leave plenty of room for an upside surprise. Moreover, the company’s
aggressive discounting program, combined with its move to reduce spec building, could cause D.R. Horton’s margin trajectory to be much weaker than its peers’ for a quarter or two, before recovering to more normalized levels. As a result, we see the company’s announcement as exactly the kind of event that could drive a peaking of negative sentiment in the stocks in the near-term.

[Please keep laughter to a minimum.]

This of course is consistent with their general thesis that the “peaking of negative sentiment” will lead later to these housing stocks trading at double digit multiples in around, oh, say April of next year.

As someone has alluded to previously on this blog, let’s remember that Larry K. is in the bidness of SHOWbidness. His on-air ‘persona’ is, in all likelihood, quite different from his “dinner at Luger’s with Barry” persona. That said, he probably is still an eternal optimist.

He’s not all bad as he clearly is giving Barry at least as much props as he gives anyone else. I look through the BS and clearly see that Larry understands that a guy like Barry is essential to the ‘character’ of his program because a)Barry shoots straight and b)Barry shoots well.

One technical comment (stolen from pring.com): a huge signal is about to go off – S&P crossing below it’s 365-day MA.

CNBC had Liz Ann Sonders on Squawk this morning, and she’s been bearish since the spring and warned her clients at Schwab about the market turning south before it tanked. Good call. But they do definitely tilt towards the bull side on CNBC.

You’d think they would have learned by now that they don’t have the power to prop up the market by encouraging retail to buy dips. They’d do their ratings more good in the market downturns by teaching their viewers how to short and buy puts, that way more of their audience could stay in the game.

GRL: DHI can’t afford to buy back enough shares to make a difference until the stock is in single digits. Anyway, they should save their cash to make their interest payments. I’m still looking for most builders (the ones that survive) to trade for around 50% book value before they base. DHOM is already being priced for a funeral, and I wonder if KBH will survive with their debt and meager cash if we get a prolonged recession.

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About Barry Ritholtz

Ritholtz has been observing capital markets with a critical eye for 20 years. With a background in math & sciences and a law school degree, he is not your typical Wall St. persona. He left Law for Finance, working as a trader, researcher and strategist before graduating to asset managementRead More...

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