Paul a strong second

Representative
Ron Paul
of Texas finished a strong second in the state’s Republican primary, which in many ways was the more telling outcome in a race in which
Mitt Romney
’s dominance was never in doubt.

Mr Paul polled well ahead of the late-surging Jon Huntsman and
Newt Gingrich
and
Rick Santorum
. He benefited from the large turnout of independent voters, getting the nod from about 30 per cent, nearly the same as Mr Romney. He also did well with young voters and those who said they were liberal on social issues. But even if analysts continue to regard the libertarian-leaning Mr Paul as a protest candidate, his success – on top of a third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses last week – means he will most likely continue his campaign for months and perhaps to the summer convention.

In South Carolina, which votes on January 21, Mr Paul has a reasonably strong organisation but one that is not seen as powerful as his campaigns in Iowa and New Hampshire. He also faces heightened opposition in that state, some party strategists say, because of his non-interventionist and anti-war positions.

South Carolina has a long legacy of large military installations and heavy defence industry and military employment.

The Florida primary on January 31 is the first big-state contest. But Mr Paul is largely expected to bypass that race because of the huge expense of television advertising and other campaign costs, as well as the structure of the primary, which is seen as putting him at a disadvantage.

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He will focus on the Nevada caucuses on February 4 and on caucuses in other states in which he has worked to build an organisation and where the rules make it easier for independents to vote for him.

The other story in New Hampshire was Mr Huntsman, who bounded from margin-of-error territory in national polls, benefiting from his sole focus on New Hampshire and skipping Iowa.

But with the Republican nominating contest moving to South Carolina, Mr Huntsman faces a steep challenge, with little organisation in the state and no personal connection to the voters. His moderate views mean he has an uphill battle in a Southern state with many conservative Christian voters and Tea Party members.

On the other hand, South Carolina’s demographics favour the two candidates tied for fourth here, Mr Gingrich and Mr Santorum.

Each will try to prevent South Carolinians from accepting the inevitability of a coronation of the New Hampshire winner, Mr Romney, which they did in 2008 when Senator John McCain’s momentum after winning the state catapulted him ahead of a more conservative candidate, Mike Huckabee, and led to his eventual nomination.

Mr Gingrich, who believes his one-time lead in national polls was undone by attack ads from Romney supporters, heads to South Carolina pledging $US3.4 million for attack ads. They will focus on Mr Romney’s career as a corporate buyout specialist, a case Mr Gingrich is already making with voters and in interviews. He has also signalled that he will defend his right flank in South Carolina from the conservative alternative of Mr Santorum, whom he has called a “junior partner" of his in Congress in the 1990s.

“I actually know how to build a nationwide campaign and he lost Pennsylvania by the largest margin of any senator in the history of the state," Mr Gingrich said on Tuesday.