Picks of the week: Stanford beats Washington, UCLA and Utah protect their home turf, USC fends off Colorado

By Jon Wilner, Bay Area News Group

Thursday, November 9, 2017

Stanford over Washington was the Hotline’s pick in August, and Stanford over Washington is the Hotline’s pick in November.

The Huskies are on a short week, looked wobbly the last time they were on the road and are losing playmakers seemingly by the day (the latest: receiver Quinten Pounds and tight end Hunter Bryant).

The Cardinal has played well at home, owns loads of big game experience and has a defense that’s just good enough to provide resistance.

Yep, the Huskies are granite.

Yep, the Cardinal looks lost.

But Stanford has options in the passing game and coach David Shaw, stung by the flatline in Pullman, will make a point of calling plays for his tight ends. (Their size will be problematic for UW.)

Quarterback K.J. Costello is mobile enough to elude the pass rush and should complete just enough third-down passes to keep drives alive.

Bryce Love will squeeze through just enough openings for the Cardinal to muster a few touchdowns.

Meanwhile, UW’s offense will encounter problems similar to those it encountered at Arizona State, where the running game sputtered, the protection broke down and there simply weren’t enough options for Jake Browning in the passing game.

If Washington scores touchdowns on defense or special teams (Dante Pettis), the calculation would change.

But Stanford should be sound enough to avoid breakdowns and turnovers.

The line is only six, folks. A Cardinal victory would hardly be a shocker.

Last week: 5-1Season: 39-26-1Five-star special: 7-3

All picks against the spread.Lines taken from vegasinsider.com.

Home teams have ruled the past two weeks. Make it three in a row.

Byes: Cal and Oregon.

Washington (minus-6) at Stanford (Friday): The Huskies opened as 8.5-point favorites, with an o/u of 50. Both numbers have come down. (The current total of 45 still feels high: This could be a 20-17 final, or 17-13, unless turnovers come into play.) The Cardinal has only been a home dog twice in the Shaw era, and it won outright both times: USC in ’12 and Oregon in ’13. Here comes 3-0. Pick: Stanford.

Washington State (minus-1) at Utah: The Utes showed life on offense last week, but that must be partially dismissed because of the opponent (UCLA). The Cougars’ performance on the road of late cannot be dismissed, however: Blowouts losses at Cal and Arizona in which Luke Falk wasn’t Luke Falk and the defense wasn’t up to the task. Khalil Tate’s success in the read-option will be a blueprint for Tyler Huntley. The Utes start fast and hang on. Pick: Utah.

USC (minus-13.5) at Colorado: Trap game for the Trojans following the back-to-back against the Arizona schools for division control — and with UCLA next week. Colorado’s defense isn’t stout enough to hold off Sam Darnold, Ronald Jones and Deontay Burnett with the game on the line. But that’s too many points for the erratic Trojans to hand a desperate home dog. Pick: Colorado.

Arizona State (plus-2.5) at UCLA: We’ll assume Josh Rosen clears concussion protocol and is in the lineup. We’ll also assume ASU’s defense remains as porous as it has been for most of the season. (The Washington and Utah games are the outliers.) And while it’s easy to forget that the Bruins are undefeated at home, it’s certainly relevant, especially against a team with one conference road win in the past two years. Pick: UCLA.

Oregon State (plus-22) at Arizona: The Beavers have played better since the coaching change, but better isn’t nearly good enough. We’ll set the over/under for Tate’s total offense at 475 yards … in three quarters of play. Pick: Arizona.

Straight-up winners: Stanford, Utah, USC, UCLA and Arizona.

Five-star special: UCLA. A purely personal pick. Because I wrote about all the problems with UCLA’s defense this morning, the Bruins will play their best game. Always happens.