Gartner's Top Predictions For 2018 and Beyond: Pace Yourself

By
Michael Miller8 Oct 2017, 11:02 p.m.

With an 80 percent average of being correct, these prognostications for the tech world are always wo

Introducing this year's list of Gartner's Top 10 Strategic Predictions, Gartner Fellow Daryl Plummer instructed audience members to pace themselves when introducing new technologies. "The next big thing is making the last three big things work well," he said. Plummer talked about pacing yourself as a process of setting goals, starting from where you are, listening and being honest with yourself, and varying your pace by working at multiple speeds for different kinds of projects.

The list, which is released annually at the firm's Symposium, is composed of specific predictions, rather than a list of important technologies going forward (I covered that list here). As such, it is a bit more speculative, and Plummer said he thought getting 60 percent right would be good, though he said the actual average is closer to 80 percent. For example, Plummer said last year's prediction that wearables would cut healthcare costs 40 percent by 2020 is highly unlikely. (For comparison, here is last year's list.)

Plummer said there are three big things technology leaders should keep in mind for all technology projects. The first is generating revenue and value, as that is the key. Then there is trust in the information you are collecting and presenting. And finally, there is the speed of change.

Here are this year's predictions:

1. By 2021, early adopter brands that redesign their websites to support visual and voice search will increase digital commerce revenue by 30 percent. Plummer talked about taking a picture of something, or seeing something in Google Lens or via Facebook tools, and said this will lead to increased customer engagement. He added that by 2019, more than half of all mobile searches will be voice or visual searches.

2. By 2020, 5 of the top 7 digital giants will willfully "self-disrupt" to create their next leadership opportunity. Plummer said these giants have become good at disrupting themselves, and gave the example of Apple disrupting the iPod with the iPhone. Other companies should be looking at the next value opportunities as quickly as they can, and as an example, he pointed to a prediction that by 2019 the typical kitchen will have two virtual personal assistants (devices such as the Amazon Echo or the Google Home). He said incumbency is not a guarantee of success, as competition is coming from unexpected places.

3. By year end 2020, the bank industry will derive 1 billion dollars of business value from the use of blockchain-based cryptocurrencies. Plummer said the banks are tacitly endorsing the use of cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether, which are growing every day. He noted that $1 billion is far smaller than the amount of value of the virtual currencies, but refers to the additional revenue and value banks will create using the cryptocurrencies. There are already 5,000 cryptocurrency exchanges and 700 digital cash variants, he said. However, through 2023, Gartner expects only 10 percent of enterprises will achieve any radical transformation with blockchain technologies, but Plummer said he thought even that number was too high.

4. By 2022, the majority of individuals in mature economies will consume more false information than true information. Plummer said trust in information is more dependent on whom you choose to listen to—on social media, for example—than on the validity of the data source. As a result, he said we need to understand the appetite for fake information and the confirmation biases we all have. Though 2019, organizations will make many attempts to detect and label untrue information.

5. Through 2021, AI-driven creation of "counterfeit reality," or fake content, will outpace AI's ability to detect it, fomenting digital distrust. Plummer demonstrated how easily photos can be faked with Photoshop, and talked about similar issues in movies and music. Over 90 percent of top movie releases "de-age" actors, he said. By 2018, there will be a tenfold increase in commercial projects to detect fake news, he said.

6. By 2021, more than 50 percent of enterprises will spend more per year on bots and chatbot creation than on traditional mobile app development. Plummer noted that mobile development spending is already decreasing, while 52 percent of organizations in Gartner's surveys are investigating chatbots. He referenced a prediction last year, which said that by 2020, the average person will have more conversations with bots than with their spouse. By the end of 2018, Gartner thinks that a handful of bots will emerge to highlight their potential.

7. By 2021, 40 percent of IT staff will be "versatilists," holding multiple roles, most of which will be business (rather than technology) related. This will require versatile IT leadership and management, and "scaling through diversity" with individuals of varied backgrounds who possess a variety of skills, among these IT and business skills. Speed will be crucial in this area, he said. By 2019, Gartner predicts IT technical specialist hires will fall by more than 5 percent, as employment needs shift to more general skills.

8. In 2020, AI will become a positive net job motivator, creating 2.3 million jobs while only eliminating 1.8 million jobs. Plummer said there will be a lot of job loss in the meantime in some places, but that this job loss won't be even—health care jobs will be replaced at a much slower rate than manufacturing jobs, for example. AI is most useful to augment our ability to make decisions, and that makes people more valuable, he said. In 2018, there will be a massive job churn in global IT services, with firms adding 100,000 jobs and dropping 80,000.

9. By 2020, Internet of Things (IoT) technology will be in 95 percent of electronics for new product designs. Devices appearing everywhere know more about us than we know about ourselves, Plummer said, and are becoming so inexpensive that they will be in everything—even toilets. In China, there are devices that sell for under $2 with connectivity. Microprocessors, software, and connectivity will be ubiquitous, and this will be invasive. Plummer said there are 8.4 billion connected things in use today, and this number is growing rapidly. By 2019, he said, smartphone IoT activation will emerge.

10. Through 2022, half of all security budgets for IoT will go to fault remediation, recalls, and safety failures, rather than to protection. Most organizations don't have a budget for IoT security now, but they will need to add one, Plummer said. By 2019, IoT security incidents will make the nightly news.

In summary, Plummer said we must be aware of the changes that are coming: "You have to pay attention to the future, or the future will pay attention to you in ways you don't like."

About the Author

Michael J. Miller is chief information officer at Ziff Brothers Investments, a private investment firm. From 1991 to 2005, Miller was editor-in-chief of PC Magazine, responsible for the editorial direction, quality and presentation of the world's largest computer publication.

Until late 2006, Miller was the Chief Content Officer for Ziff Davis Media, responsible for overseeing the editorial positions of Ziff Davis's magazines, websites, and events. As Editorial Director for Ziff Davis Publishing since 1997, Miller took an active role in helping to identify new editorial needs in the marketplace and in shaping the editorial positioning of every Ziff ... See Full Bio