Super Bowl Betting 101

Super Bowl Pointspread

Favorite Versus Underdog in Super Bowl History

The favorite has won the Super Bowl straight out 27
out of 46 times, while the underdog has won the game
straight out 16 of 46 picks. Super Bowl XVI in 1982
between the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati
Bengals was a pick-em game, with the Niners coming out
the 26-21 winner. Super Bowl XXXI in 1997 between the
Green Bay Packers saw the Cheeseheads installed as a 14
point favorite over Drew Bledsoe and the New England
Patriots. That game finished at 35-21 in the Packers
favor, so it was a push. In the Rams-Titans matchup in
2000 (Super Bowl XXXIV), the Rams were a 7 point
favorite in that game. The Rams defeated the Titans in a
highly competitive game which involved Kevin Dyson a
foot away from a tying touchdown as time ran out, but
the Titans came up short at 23-16, thus causing a push
for betters. Thus the favorite has won the Super Bowl
straight-up 29 out of 46 times, while the underdog has
won straight-up 16 times, with the one pickem game.

Super Bowl Favorites Covering the Spread

In 22 out of those 27 wins by the favored team, the
favorite covered. This means over 80% of the time, if
favorite wins, they covers. At the same time, the
expected winner has covered and won slightly under half
of the times in Super Bowl history at 22-24.

Superpowl Pointspreads: The Early Years

The early years saw the Green Bay Packers dominate in
the first two Super Bowls, inflating in the minds of the
leaders of the NFL and AFL, as well as the public, the
idea that the NFL was dominant. When two straight AFL
underdogs won the Super Bowl, opinions radically
shifted. The Baltimore Colts represented the NFL/NFC in
Super Bowl 3, but the leagues had merged by the time of
their reappearance in the big time only two years later.
By Super Bowl 5, the Colts were the underdog from the
AFL/AFC, but they became the third straight team from
that league/conference to win as an underdog. This would
usher in a decade when the AFC won 8 of 10 Super Bowl
games, with the Dallas Cowboys as the only NFC team to
win the world championship of football.

Super Bowl

Favorite

Underdog

Outcome

Won/Lost vs Pointspread

Super Bowl I

Green Bay Packers (-14)

Kansas City Chiefs

Packers won by 25

Favorite covered the spread.

Super Bowl II

Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

Oakland Raiders

Packers won by 19

Favorite covered the spread.

Super Bowl III

Baltimore Colts (-18)

New York Jets

Jets won by 9

Underdog won the bet.

Super Bowl IV

Minnesota Vikings (-12)

Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs won by 16

Underdog won the bet.

Super Bowl V

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Baltimore Colts

Colts won by 3

Underdog won the bet.

Super Bowls in the 1970s

The Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, Oakland
Raiders, and Dallas Cowboys won all the Super Bowls over
a 10-year stretch in the 1970s. The Steelers won four
while the other three teams won 2 apiece. In an era with
several football dynasties, the favorite won 8 out of 10
wagers against the pointspread. I would suggest this
should tell you that it's good to bet with a dynasty and
that's been the traditional wisdom. People who bet for
the 60s Packers, 70s Steelers, 80s Niners, and 90s
Cowboys would have cleaned up betting against the
pointspread in most cases. That trend did not continue
into the 2000s, when the New England Patriots became 1
of 2 teams to win three out of four Super Bowls. In all
three of those games (including one where the Patriots
were the underdogs), the underdog won against the
pointspread.

Super Bowl

Favorite

Underdog

Outcome

Won/Lost vs Pointspread

Super Bowl VI

Dallas Cowboys (-6)

Miami Dolphins

Cowboys won by 17

Favorite won the bet.

Super Bowl VII

Washington Redskins (-1.5)

Miami Dolphins

Dolphins won by 7

Underdog won.

Super Bowl VIII

Miami Dolphins (-6.5)

Minnesota Vikings

Dolphins won by 17

Favorite won.

Super Bowl IX

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Minnesota Vikings

Steelers won by 16

Favorite won

Super Bowl X

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Dallas Cowboys

Steelers won by 4

Underdog won against line.

Super Bowl XI

Oakland Raiders (-4)

Minnesota Vikings

Raiders won by 19

Favorite covered

Super Bowl XII

Dallas Cowboys (-6)

Denver Broncos

Cowboys won by 17

Favorite covered.

Super Bowl XIII

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys

Steelers won by 4

Favorite barely covered

Super Bowl XIV

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5)

LA Rams

Steelers won by 12

Favorite covered the spread.

Super Bowl XV

Oakland Raiders (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles

Raiders won by 17

Favorite covered.

NFC Dominance in the 1980s and 1990s

Over a 15 year stretch from the 1982 until 1996, the
NFC won all but one Super Bowl over their AFC opponent.
This was an era famous for its blowouts. At a point, the
Super Bowls became boring for all but the championship
teams' fans, because everyone knew the NFC team was
going to win--and probably in a laugher. When you review
the numbers, the reality for those betting against the
pointspread wasn't nearly as clear-cut. The underdog was
7-7 with the pointspread between Super Bowls 16 and 30,
with one pickem game. A few years sprinkled in there,
the team from the AFC was favored, only to lose
ignominiously.

That's the lesson you should learn from this era: try
to look for the trends. The trend in this era was the
National Football Conference was much stronger than the
American Football Conference. It didn't matter what
teams looked like in the regular season, because the AFC
teams were often boosted in the odds because they were
playing against weaker competition. The AFC teams had
excellent quarterbacks with top passing games. The NFC
teams had excellent defenses and often equally excellent
offensive units. Even when Hall of Fame QBs like Joe
Montana, Troy Aikman, and Steve Young weren't leading
their teams, the strength of the NFC showed in the NFL
title game. Quarterbacks who weren't quite of the same
historical stature, such as Joe Theismann, Jim McMahon,
Doug Williams, Phil Sims, Jeff Hostetler, and Mark
Rypien all won Super Bowls--usually with excellent
running games and defensive units (and career years).

This can be overstated in the new NFL post-2004, when
the passing game was loosened up even more than before.
These days, it's good to keep in mind which conference
is stronger and which team has the better defense, but
in the era of the passing game, some of these old
lessons can be overstated.

Super Bowl

Favorite

Underdog

Outcome

Won/Lost vs Pointspread

Super Bowl XVI

San Francisco 49ers (PK)

Cincinnati Bengals

Niners won by 5

To win a pick'em game.

Super Bowl XVII

Miami Dolphins (-3)

Washington Redskins

Redskins won by 10

Underdog won the bet.

Super Bowl XVIII

Washington Redskins (-3)

Los Angeles Raiders

Raiders won by 29

Underdog won outright.

Super Bowl IX

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Minnesota Vikings

Steelers won by 16

Favorite won

Super Bowl XIX

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Miami Dolphins

9ers won by 22

Favorite covered the line

Super Bowl XX

Chicago Bears (-10)

New England Patriots

Bears won by 35

Favorite easily covered.

Super Bowl XXI

New York Giants (-9.5)

Denver Broncos

Giants won by 17

Favorite covered.

Super Bowl XXII

Denver Broncos (-3)

Washington Redskins

Redskins won by 32

Underdog won outright.

Super Bowl XXIII

San Francisco 49ers (-7)

Cincinnati Bengals

Niners won by 4

Underdog won the bet.

Super Bowl XXIV

San Francisco 49ers (-12)

Denver Broncos

Niners won by 45

Favorite easily covers

Super Bowl XXV

Buffalo Bills (-7)

New York Giants

Giants won by 2

Underdog won outright.

Super Bowl XXVI

Washington Redskins (-7)

Buffalo Bills

Redskins won by 17

Underdog wins bet.

Super Bowl XXVII

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

Buffalo Bills

Cowboys won by 35

Favorite easily covers

Super Bowl XXVIII

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

Bufallo Bills

Cowboys won by 17

Favorite covers in the 2nd half.

Super Bowl XXIX

San Francisco 49ers (-18.5)

San Diego Chargers

Niners won by 23

Favorite easily covers.

Super Bowl XXX

Dallas Cowboys (-13.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Cowboys won by 10

Underdog wins with the spread

Recent Super Bowl Trends

The last decade and a half has not been kind to those
who bet on the favorites in the Super Bowl. After a
solid 15-year stretch where the NFC trounced the AFC and
the favorite almost always covered (or NFC underdogs
won), the favorite has only covered in 5 of the last 16
Super Bowls. It could be worse. The five teams to cover
were the Green Bay Packers in 2011, the Pittsburgh
Steelers in 2009, the Indianapolis Colts in 2007, the
Baltimore Ravens in 2001, and the Denver Broncos in
1999. That does mean that 3 of the last 6 favorites have
covered.

New England Patriots as Super Bowl Favorites

In particular, history has not been kind to fans of
the New England Patriots who bet on them when they were
favorites, since the Patriots are 0-4 lifetime as Super
Bowl favorites. Besides their two famous losses to the
New York Giants in 2008 and 2012, the Pats also failed
to cover in beating the Panthers in 2004 and the Eagles
in 2004. Those close wins are key reasons why Adam
Viniateri might one day be the only field goal kicker in
the Hall of Fame. He holds the distinction of being the
only kicker with 3 game-winning field goals in Super
Bowl history, though the Eagles field goal (8:43
remaining) was a great deal less pressure packed than
his boots against the Rams (time expired) and the
Panthers (0:04), which came with little time in the
game. Vinatieri also won a Super Bowl with the Colts.

Super Bowl

Favorite

Underdog

Outcome

Won/Lost vs Pointspread

Super Bowl XXXI

Green Bay Packers (-14)

New England Patriots

Packers won by 14

Bet is a push.

Super Bowl XXXII

Green Bay Packers (-11)

Denver Broncos

Broncos won by 7

Underdog wins straight out.

Super Bowl XXXIII

Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Atlanta Falcons

Broncos won by 15

Favorite covers.

Super Bowl XXXIV

St. Louis Rams (-7)

Tennessee Titans

Rams won by 7

Bet is a push.

Super Bowl XXXV

Baltimore Ravens (-3)

New York Giants

Ravens won by 27

Favorite easily covers.

Super Bowl XXXVI

St. Louis Rams (-14)

New England Patriots

Patriots won by 3

Underdog wins straight out.

Super Bowl XXXVII

Oakland Raiders (-4)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers won by 27

Underdog wins easily.

Super Bowl XXXVIII

New England Patriots (-7)

Carolina Panthers

Patriots won by 3

Underdog loses, but wins bet.

Super Bowl XXXIX

New England Patriots (-7)

Philadelphia Eagles

Patriots won by 3

Underdog wins bet with late TD.

Super Bowl XL

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Seattle Seahawks

Steelers won by 11

Favorite covers the line.

Super Bowl XLI

Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Chicago Bears

Colts won by 12

Favorite covers the spread

Super Bowl XLII

New England Patriots (-13.5)

New York Giants

Giants won by 3

Underdog wins outright.

Super Bowl XLIII

Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)

Arizona Cardinals

Steelers won by 4

Favorite wins game, underdog wins bet.

Super Bowl XLIV

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)

New Orleans Saints

Saints won by 14

Underdog wins outright.

Super Bowl XLV

Green Bay Packers (-1.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Packers won by 6

Favorite covers the spread.

Super Bowl XLVI

New England Patriots (-3)

New York Giants

Giants won by 4

Underdog wins outright.

Betting on Super Bowl 47 - 2015 Super Bowl
Pointspread

People hoping to make winning bets on Super Bowl XLVV
should therefore either bet the favorite on a moneyline
(but only if it's close) or take the points and bet the
underdog against the point spread.