Hybrid View

There's no way around the variance

BJTF and some of the other forums have turned into a Debbie Downer lately. In spite of what Norm claims, there are many ways to reduce variance. But it is going to take some work. It is not maintream thinking and it does NOT sell a book.

Tarzan count probably does more to reduce variance than any other. But why it is only slightly better than Wong Halves or Hi OPt II is a mystery. It's probably because his columns are out of alignment. Great for PE where allowed. Great for IC. But not a great BC count. It's counter productive to reduce the lowest column to zero in single or DD.

The common answer seems to be "keep playing and things will get better." How about "work on your game so things don't get worse"? In a single deck or double deck it primarily comes down to "what is played vs what is left" and "what are you going to do about it vs what you are allowed to do about it." I have no idea about 6 decks. But LEGIONS of people claim to be making HUGE money at it all over the country with HiLo. More power to them. I'm not a buyer.

BJTF members can't wait to jump on some poor bastard that is struggling with variance or playing a losing game. I don't know if T3 bumped his head or what. But lately he is giving sound advice (without all the bragging). It appears the primary reason most are struggling with variance is lack of proper money management, betting into decks with lousy composition, entitlement issues, poor work ethic, and playing shoes. I've maintained all along casinos could put HiLo count on a tote board behind the table and most would still lose money.

Typically, the spotted dog has issues with both 6 deck and double deck and is not the expert this year than he was last year. Two completely different animals. Even though he employs a different count for each, the confusion will magnify and multiply from a lack of description in the first place. There should be two different threads. But Norm would not do or suggest this because he thrives on chaos and confusion.

Create confusion to confound the understanding. It has nothing to do with becoming a better or more productive player. It has everything to do with generating several BS posts. So here is another thread that will go 200 posts and solve nothing.

Wisdom is knowing the tomato is a fruit. Knowledge is knowing it does not belong in a fruit salad.

Halves has a PE of 0.57. That is still far inferior to hi-opt 2's 0.67.

False's spotted dog writes ^:

Moses replies; Maybe go to False's library and read yet another book. You're the one complaining about losses and boasting about all the great games in your area. No? PE is great provided you're allowed to utilize all or most of the indices. Evidently that isn't working out so well for you. Perhaps introduce yourself to Mr. Sim and Mr. Verite. Since False represents 90% of your game improvement, I shutter to think what it was before.

So you're side counting 7s? Okay, you have a large bet out. The 7s are exhausted and two other players are at the table not revealing their cards. You have 14vs10. Are you saying stand because you can't possibly get 21? What if dealer has an 8 or 9 in the hole? You didn't side count those cards. What if other players are tucking two 10s? Your chances increase of getting a small card like a 5 or 6. No?

with side counts? would a side count of 7 elevate PE to that of hi-opt 2?

False's spotted dog writes:

Moses replies: Stop worrying about your damn PE (unless you own a time machine) and start thinking about your SCORE. Run your sims. But input data that is allowed for casino play. NOT what you wish you could do to increase SCORE. Trying assigning the tag of 2 at 0 and 7 at 1 from Wong Halves and see if this doesn't improve your SCORE significantly for the DD game. Also try switching the tag values of the 3 and the 7. Now you've increased PE without reducing BC much. Now instead of side counting your damn 7s, use that brainpower for a 10 count. Guaranteed that will make your SCORE soar.

Index plays for single deck

If the SD game is heavily sweated you want to forgot some index plays or not sit through poor counts. Most opt for the former for obvious reasons if you ever played SD.

T3 writes ^:

Moses replies: Nice post T3: Win today. Play tomorrow. Focus on Ill 18. Get all out of it your brain can handle. Run your sims.

Some are not allowed. Drop splitting 10s unless your goal is to become a dealer instead of a player. Drop 12v5,6. Add 14v10 (a biggie). Maybe add 13v4 and 14v2,3 (not a biggie). Forget that hairy high school BS of doubling soft 10s.