February 1-21, 2015 Calgary Real Estate Market Update

While the 5,504 homes for sale in Calgary are at the highest February level since 2009 and nearly double the amount from a year ago, an influx of sellers can’t be blamed for the ballooning inventory.

New listings this month are up only 10% year-over-year. I say “only” because they were up over 40% three weeks into both December and January. Also, new listings are above the 5-year average by just 3.7%. Those are hardly market tipping figures.

New Listings, February 1-21, Y/Y comparison (click to enlarge)

The main concern now is that buyers have gone awol. Home sales month-to-date are down -35% from a year ago and 1/4 lower than the 5 year average.

This gives rise to the question: are buyers simply being cautious and waiting on the sidelines or have they been directly affected by the economy and can’t buy? If the answer is the former then there’s a chance the market can turn around later in the year, the latter means it’s going to get worse.

Whether too many sellers or too few buyers are the root cause for growing inventory, the net effect will be the same: a disproportionate amount of listings to sales which will drag prices down.

The median price for the City of Calgary is off -0.47% from the same period a year ago ($425,000 -> $423,000) and the average price is down -3.87% ($485,753 -> $466,946)