As long as people go see Away from Her, Christie is a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination. She is that good in the film. Unfortunately, after reading an interview with her in the Guardian, it doesn't sound like we'll be seeing too much more of her on screen in the future. She seems to shun celebrity.

well, i'd rather see Pfeiffer nominated for Stardust, juicy villan role, and she looks fantastic in the stills and trailer. but sadly, the Academy rarely recognizes fantasy performances, though McKellen did get a nod for LOTR.

Stardust just doesn't look awardsy at all, sad to say. Pfeiffer's best shot this year is probably to build good will for "spike!" oscar-bait role later.

Not too much faith in Moore's Savage Grace role, huh Nat? I had to predict myself. If only to say "come on, Julianne, prove me right."

I feel dumb leaving out Christie, though. I thought there was some talk about Away From Her being a supporting role, for her? Or have I confused her with Sigourney in Snow Cake? Whatever, what's done is done. Oh well.

I also heard Redgrave is probably supporting in evening... I solved the Atonement double nom conundrum by just calling Redgrave for Evening instead (it's much harder to pull off the "two noms for one person" trick when both noms are in the same category).

Why do you have Streep as a supporting actress in Lions, though? Sounds like a lead role to me.

Well, ya know, Nat's highest prediction for Lead Actresses is only 2. Maybe he was doing Moore a favor by excluding her, since most likely at least one or two (or who knows, maybe even al) won't get nominated.

Nathaniel, why do I dislike Romola Garai so much? I didn't like her in Vanity Fair, especially, and I sort of hated her in that Dirty Dancing 2 thing, but I think my dislike is sort of unfair. It seems so out of proportion. Do you have a sensible explanation for this? Is there a bad performance I'm forgetting?

Garai at one and Redgrave at five, but no mention at all for Saoirse Ronan who (judging by the book) gets to play the juiciest part of that character? If Atonement is to get anything like the success you're predicting Saoirse needs to be at least good and that should put her ahead of Redgrave if not Garai also.

Oh, Nat, I must ask... Cornish isn't of Morton for Golden Age? Um, what? Why? Isn't Morton the biggest female role after Elizabeth? The juicy adversary role? Who does Cornish play that makes her so special?

Morton has been nommed out of nowhere before. I think Djimon's nod this year proved that when they nom you out of nowhere, they will most likely also nom you when people can see it coming a mile away. I think Morton as Mary Queen of Scots is a very good bet myself.

Well I like all the choices but i would pick Nicole Kidman for the Golden Copmass in supporting actress....She have to be in one category and the role in the weitz film sees too juicy for the academy to pass....The definatly will be nominated....

Garia is fine in the supporting category, although with less screen time early reports suggest she has given a scene stealing performance and she does have Angel on her resume which is gettin her alot of critical kudos as well so she will be in the critics minds.

Surprised to see no mention of the In Bloom ladies Uma and Evan both underrated and very talented.

adam k --the savage grace doubt is about the lack of concrete distribution. and potential minisculeness of the film. can't wait to see moore sink her teeth in though.

aaron --i couldn't tell you. I am sort of blank on her but filmmakers obviously have faith since she keeps getting opportunities.

anonymous --i didn't know Thurman said that about Wood. I actually forgot Wood is all. It's hard to keep track of everyone even with spreadsheets.

anonymous --i know 2 of 5 doesn't sound like much but it will be fun to show you all how hard this is to do once you see how few people hit that in the 100+ best actress contest I held.

the tricky thing is that if you really look at the list you can make a case for infinite combos of those 25 women and then some (you can obviously even make a case that they'll pass on Blanchett --but I didn't want to shoot my prediction total in the foot since it's theoretically the easiest get this year)

So much depends on the films themselves (and nobody knows if they're good or crowd pleasing yet) and how the media responds and how willing and able they are to campaign, etc...

sofia's nose --fonda in georgia rule is not out of the question. Fonda has 7 noms and 2 wins and if it's a loveable performance (even if the movie is just OK...)

michael --the thing with evening is there are so many people i kinda had to throw up my hands. The June release and the cunningham decades spanning screenplay worries me too.

i didn't include sigourney for snowcake because i have more faith in the girl in the park role.

some of the people y'all mentioned I forgot are in the top 25 lists though. They just might be kinda low.

Didn't I hear that Morton's role is actually quite small in The Golden Age? I dunno.

Also, while I see Cate Blanchett going down the Patricia Clarkson route (for their respective Todd Haynes films) I do think it'd be a great way to play mindfuck with audiences who hadn't seen the movie by Oscar night. "She plays BOB DYLAN?!?"

I must say that I didn't really think much of Rendition's chances until your predix. Didn't strike me as Oscar fodder.

I am very excited to see you predicting Jennifer Jason Leigh for Margot at the Wedding. She should really be on, like, her fourth nomination by now, after all those great unnominated performances she's given - Last Exit to Brooklyn, Miami Blues, Rush, Short Cuts, Mrs. Parker and the Vicious Circle, Georgia... I don't think there has ever been an actress who has amassed more critical acclaim (and awards from the NYFC, NSOFC and BSOFC) without getting so much as a single Oscar nomination.

It may be just wishful thinking at this early stage, but I do believe Leigh has a good shot with Margot at the Wedding once the film turns out good: she has a major co-star in Nicole Kidman, major studio backing with Paramount who'll likely give her a good promotional push, and she could ride the whole "comeback"/"overdue" trail to her first nod. Plus, she is married to Margot's director, Noah Baumbach, and he's one of Hollywood's hottest properties right now.

I have little doubt Juli will be excellent in this role, but I also have little doubt Oscar will pass. It will probably be too small, and almost certainly too weird. The story is pretty bizarre, and I don't expect Tom Kalin (based on recently viewing Swoon) to gloss over the more disturbing details.

It will be apalling to see Keira Knightley nominated again so quickly after her shocking nomination for 2005. She should happy with that nomination alone and stay that way for the next ten to eight years unless she gives us something good.

I saw an early screening of Atonement and the movie belongs to James McAvoy and the actresses playing Briony especially the middle one who now I remember watching in I Capture the Castle, Nathaniel has her up for the supporting category. In all the movie was okay, not bad but certainly not as mind blowing as I expected it to be.

Morton has been described as "ferocious" in her portrayal of Mary Queen of Scots but she leaves the film bout one third in - Cornish has a pretty significant role playing the lady in waiting to Good Queen Bess who runs away with Raleigh -

I think the Redgrave and Christie noms would be super - especially Christie -

Beau wrote:"Seeing 'Away From Her' May 1st at LACMA in L.A. I absolutely cannot wait.Would love to see her get that award... hell, her performance in the trailer alone deserves consideration."

I don't Christie will win an Oscar for Away from Her but she should get nominated. And maybe with renewed attention, she'll be offered the great parts she deserves. She still is as radiant on screen as ever.

Also, re: Weaver in Snow Cake. I doubt if she'll be nominated for this film. I think the film will get panned. I liked Alan Rickman very much in this film, but I think it will flop if it is released in the US.

So am I the only one who thinks the academy feels so bad about 2002 that they're just waiting until Moore is great again to hand her that oscar? I myself have lost a lot of my love for her recently, but even I still want her to win that thing BAD. The film will be on the radar because it's Juli, tiny release or no.

And the fact is: dark, tiny, bizarre, taboo films CAN get actresses nominations and even wins, even if they're not very good. Everybody said about Monster, "I'll believe it when I see it." And hi, look what happened. Same with Transamerica... everyone cried "stunt" or "too controversial for the academy," but Felicity got the nom and won the golden globe.

Those were major physical transformations, but I think Juli has the career goodwill and overdue factor going for her enough to not need to physically transform. The shocking, daring material could actually work to her advantage: People will cry "stunt" and "controversial" but in the end, it'll only get her more publicity. And the movie doesn't even have to be great.

Again, look at Monster. Theron played a lesbian psycho murderer hooker and people ate it up. I don't think you can get much more dark, controversial and hateable than that. An incestuous "real person" mother who dies is not so very different. If they want an excuse to reward more, they'll have it.

Has anyone seen that indie Film THE NAMESAKE. I think that Indian actress who played mom to Kal Penn was mindblowing. If promoted properly she has a good shot of being nom inated for supporting actress category.