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Mahomes. He has the arm of Jamarcus Russell, he's mobile, and his deep ball timing is already pretty good. He has a long ways to go to reach his ceiling, but it's a story above every other QB's, imo. I guess he could be 2 inches taller and 15 lbs heavier, but I don't think his size is a negative. He could end up being the next Kyle Boller or he could end up being the next Russel Wilson. I think he'll end up closer to Wilson, and I also think the Bears should seriously consider him at #3, but it doesn't look like they will after signing 2 costly bums._________________
2018 Draft: Saquon Barkley + Court Sutton #20 #92 Fire Doof Pederson.
Fly Eagles Fly

I don't even think Trubisky has a high floor. I think his probability of busting is about the the same as Kizer and Mahomes. I am not sure where the idea that Trubisky had a high floor came from. One of the reasons I am not a fan of his - I think he has a low floor, low ceiling._________________

I'm not a big fan of looking purely at the ceiling or floor of a player. That's just not how I view QB's. All I want to know is what is the probability that this guy will be a franchise QB for me. Having a high floor doesn't mean a player is going to become a franchise player (and I'd like to point out it's perceived high floor as many prospects with "high floors" end up sputtering badly out of the NFL), and having a perceived "high ceiling" doesn't mean a player will ever reach their potential. So I want to identify the guys with traits that make them likely to have the upside to become a franchise QB, and then I want to find the guys that are the furthest along and have the least to work on to be sure they actually achieve their potential. I also want to avoid risks (especially off-the-field stuff) as much as possible. If you think about QB's in this way, it becomes pretty clear why I had Marcus Mariota over Jameis Winston. I think it also becomes clear why I didn't like Johnny Manziel (character and measurables) or Tim Tebow (too much to fix mechanically).

I'll be unveiling my prospect rankings soon (still finishing them up), but I can already tell you that I will have Patrick Mahomes very, very low. I wouldn't even consider him until Day 3. I guess if you talk in terms of ceiling you can throw out the fact that mechanically he has an incredible amount to work on with both his throwing motion and footwork, and I always expect a QB has something to work on and has to tweak most of their game, but I don't like when a QB's mechanics have to be completely remade with both the throwing motion and footwork. That is a recipe for failure.

But conveniently throwing that out, lets just look at his measurables for potential. He's 6'2". That's barely over the yellow flag of 6'1". His hand size is 9 1/4", which is a heavy yellow flag and nearly a red flag. And if you want to consider the other athletic stuff for escapability and all of that, he's not as athletic as he is made out to be (not that athleticism makes a QB). He runs a 4.80 40 at 225 lbs. Compare that to Trubisky who runs a 4.67 40 at 222 lbs or Watson who runs a 4.66 40 at 221 lbs. Even compare it to Webb's 4.79 40 at 229 lbs. His other stuff is good but nothing eye popping (30" VJ, 9'6" BJ, 4.08 20S, and 6.88 3C).

If we're throwing out where the mechanics are now, I think you have to take a look at a guy like Sefo Liufau out of Colorado. He's a tall 6'3", 232 lbs, and he has some monster 10 3/4" hands. He's not the most athletic, but as I said, athleticism doesn't make a QB. I do think Kizer's name makes sense, though. I'm sure there are some non-Combine QB's with outrageous upside as well._________________

Upside is Kizer to me. He has all the tools just needs to put them together (I know that is way easier said then done). The things that knock down Mahomes behind Kizer in upside are size (not saying it is a negative per se, but it's not as ideal as Kizer's) and the need to completely revamp his footwork and throwing motion or at least get it to a place where he can consistently replicate it (Kizer's isn't ideal either but it is more respectable at this point)._________________
#JDI