Why the Broncos should start Keith Brooking over Joe Mays

After the high of a great win over a division rival, it’s hard to come back to earth. One thing that’s a difficult reality for Denver, though, has been the disappointing play of Joe Mays.

Suspended for Sunday’s contest with the Oakland Raiders, he was effectively replaced by Keith Brooking, who looked better on Sunday than Mays has all year.

I give Mays, the Broncos, and Jack Del Rio credit for improving Mays’s coverage situation via changes in scheme somewhat as the season has progressed. Mays gave up four completions on four targets in the opener, two completions on three targets at Atlanta, and just one target and completion against Houston, with an average reception of 7.4 yards overall. They’re getting him out of danger well, but there’s more to the problem here. I have to wonder if they’re not following what they expected to have work, despite finding that it doesn’t. They need to look seriously at what has been more effective.

Mays's lack of speed, and inadequate play and adjustment calls has created problems in the middle linebacker section (mid- to deep-middle) of the classic Cover 2 defense. Denver often switches to Cover-1, -3, or -6 to deal with that. That’s good, but it doesn’t obscure the fact that Mays can’t cover his deep middle zone and has other problems.

The question is, what is Mays bringing to the table? He doesn’t cover well, he’s not taking good angles, he still bites on play fakes, he doesn’t play special teams any longer, and his tackling is way down. It’s the picture of a player who’s in over his head. Perhaps he should become the special teams ace and LB backup he was brought in to be.

Keith Brooking came in and was a noticeable and immediate upgrade. Part of that was simply Brooking’s long experience with the NFL, and his ability to see what Mays and even Wesley Woodyard might not - he made play-calling adjustments that on several occasions resulted in the play going for little or no yardage. TJ has said the same, and he's right . Brooking’s lack of speed wasn’t a problem against the Raiders. His experience, on the other hand, was a boon.

After this year, Denver might want to look towards free agency and to see if they can’t bring in someone who does have MLB experience, because the improvement in the play adjustments was so noticeable, with Brooking getting people into the right spot on multiple plays. Del Rio also called one heck of a game. But as far as next year - draft for the future, certainly, but it seems that the present benefits from an experienced eye at MLB. Brooking also put up five tackles, three of them solo. There was also no dropoff in Denver’s overall hitting, a selling point of Mays in the past - they struggled with tackling form somewhat in the first half, but unleashed orange hell on Oakland in the second.

Going with Brooking is far from a riskless proposition. He was a great player in his prime, and I honor that. Now, though, he’s in the final season(s) of his career. He’s been slow getting to plays previously, but not noticeably against the Raiders - the Mike, his traditional position, appears to suit him better. He’s not been unproductive, either - Brooking had 95 snaps going into Sunday (mostly at Will), with eight tackles and a forced fumble.

He was, in fairness, gashed against the run in the Houston game, and also gave up three receptions on three targets. He added five tackles against the Raiders, though - half of Mays’s three-game total (10 tackles) in just one game. He’s now up to 13 tackles in 89 fewer snaps than Joe took to get to 10. Brooking is fine for now. Optimally, my own preference would be a quality veteran MLB as a very good investment in this offseason, but first things first.

To get a more complete picture, I think that Mays’s play also has to be compared with Wesley Woodyard’s. Woodyard is currently the starter at Will, backed up by Brooking when Keith isn’t covering Mike. Woodyard led the team in tackles with 20 (he also had six against Oakland and leads the team) after three games, while Mays, as noted, had 10.

Woodyard also had 0.5 sacks (he added one more Sunday) and an interception; Mays had one sack, no picks. The numbers given for WW were on 127 snaps in the first three contests, while Mays had been on the field for 213 snaps (figures according to PFF) over the same three games. That gives Mays less than half of WW’s production on substantially more snaps. It’s clear that WW, as well as Brooking, is outplaying Mays.

What might complicate things slightly - but shouldn’t - is that Joe just received a new contract. Rotoworld has it this way:

Mays signed a three-year, $12 million contract on March 20th of this year. The deal contains $4.5 million guaranteed, including a $500,000 signing bonus, all of Mays' first-year salary, and $500,000 of his second-year salary. These are the figures by year: 2012: $3.5 million, 2013: $4 million, 2014: $3.5 million (+ $500,000 roster bonus). In 2015, he’d become a free agent.

The unpleasant reality is that this may in part be wasted money. However, only $500K is guaranteed for next year. I’m not suggesting that Mays not play at all - just that he’s not the solution as a starter at MLB. As Ted points out, there’s no sense in crying about sunk costs. Mays is a team player, a sparkplug, and can be a tough tackler (his suspension was for a play that clearly did not have an intentional outcome). He’s a value on special teams. He can back up as a Will/Mike/Sam.

For a guy in his fifth season of play, though, he’s not making it as a starter. This is a production-based business, and he’s just not producing. He isn’t the thumping power run stuffer in the middle that was hoped for, and he’s also not playing special teams or defeating the pass. He doesn’t really have a defined role that Brooking or Woodyard couldn’t play better. It’s just my opinion, but it’s based in numbers and a lot of reps of game film.

Woodyard could also improve the position, but that would mean that someone - probably Brooking, perhaps Danny Trevathan over time - would need to step up and play Will, as well as joining Woodyard in the nickel defense. Trevathan had one solo tackle against the Raiders, but he was always around the ball during his 23 snaps, and also did well in coverage - he just needs to get playing time. I think that moving Woodyard, given that there’s an alternative, would be premature.

Brooking seemed comfortable in the middle. His mind is a huge benefit, and he tackles well. His speed has been lagging at times in other games. That’s sad but true - this isn’t an emotion-based perspective. I’m just calling what I see on film. From the middle, he seems to have less of a problem with that than when he was at Will.

Whatever their choice, Denver really needs to make a change at middle linebacker. Seeing the alternative on Sunday, albeit against a less-than-coherent Raiders team, showed that there are alternatives to be had. Much as I like and suspect that Wesley Woodyard would be a better choice in the middle, one thing was made clear on Sunday.

Keith Brooking earned the job. He’s smarter, he makes better play calls and adjustments, and he seemed to get to plays faster from the middle. The numbers, and the film, back that up. I hope they stay with him.

I have all the admiration in the world for Joe Mays, the person. The player isn’t getting it done, though, and it’s time to get real and deal with that.

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

TJ presents his instant analysis of the Broncos' 29-24 loss to the 49ers in their third game of the preseason

I could be wrong but if he has a further suspension tacked on because of his DUI it will mean he will only return from suspension after the trade deadline.

Posted by Steve Williams on 2012-10-03 03:58:48

Big mistake to pass on Dont'a Hightower in the draft...

Posted by OldZooTown on 2012-10-02 20:01:58

I had thought that JDR being an ex LB Fox being a heck of a DC in his days and John being able to look a MIKE in the face and laugh at him, would have seen something in Mays or they would not have given him a relatively fat contact..

Maybe he is worth keeping but not sure he is ready to start unless he MAJOR steps it up..

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2012-10-02 19:07:55

IIRC when DJ played mike several years ago he had problems relaying the plays to teh front seven.. on top of that lacked the skill of changing plays from teh called play.. therefore he was moved back to WIL after being at WIL, SAM MLB in his then short career..

HE stated once he hated SAM and would not go back to playing it and liked mike only marginally better than SAM..

He has always been a tackle leader but then so has WW considering the number of snaps he has taken..

YET few of DJs have been at the LOS or behind it.. they are primarily drag them down from behind after a decent gain IF not just after the first down was made..

For the salary he was resigned for I would have expected much greater numbers and a lot more impact from him..

While I thought he got a bum deal when mike resigned Gold to play WIL. after watching him a great deal I noticed the tackling he made almost always from behind and almost alway after a gain.. I was vocal about it and got shouted down a lot because of the stats the leader in tackles..

OMG what would we do without him.. Last year WW had about the same number of tackles as DJ did in half the number of games.. and once again WW leads the LB gorup in tackles why am I not surprised..

and we seem not to have missed DJ whatsoever..

Posted by Lonestar47 on 2012-10-02 19:03:50

Doc Bear thanks for doing this, Mays has been driving me crazy all year and was glad to see Brooking was at least serviceable last week.

Unfortunately I am hesitant to think Brooking can endure a full season at this point in his career. Hopefully Nate Irving is the wild card

Posted by BRASO on 2012-10-02 18:06:26

Doc Bear Agreed. DJ hasn't proven anything other than that he's a career overrated LB and that he's not the model veteran presence. In the end, Mays, Brooking, and DJ may all be in their last year of wearing the orange & blue, so here's hoping Denver plays the guy who helps the team best today.

Posted by Super7 on 2012-10-02 16:20:03

Good catch AndrewR4488. I had forgotten about Ryans, especially because I am unaware of us trying to make a play for him. Or maybe Houston wouldn't trade him within the AFC?

Posted by Broncos777 on 2012-10-02 15:44:44

Super7 You've articulated why I don't include DJ, although I'm aware that the Broncos might given the situation. I've seen no leadership from him (and his effect on younger players including WW and the Perrish Cox crew has been foul), nor has he shown the ability to handle play calling. He may be a better athlete than Brooking, but he can't call the plays like Brooking can. Although he's missed enough games to help, he's still getting paid by the game - 5 million (averaged over 17 weeks) this year, 6 million next. I can't justify that with his play to date. Brooking also doesn't drag tackle, something that caused the Broncos to give up way too much yardage. Finally, one more suspension and DJ's out of there anyway - as I said, if he was Jared Allen quality, I could see the gamble. He's not. There is no perfect solution right now, but I believe there's a better one than DJ. On the other hand, I always respect your perspectives - perhaps you're right. Love to see a good case for Mays - anyone?

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-10-02 15:31:56

Doc, nice piece. I do agree that going with Brooking as the starter needs to happen but Mays works fine as a depth player. If he's going to stick around, though, he's either going to have to restructure his contract, as Kevin Vickerson and Ty Warren did, or the Broncos will cut ties with him after this season while looking for an upgrade in free agency.

Super7 your point about DJ not being that much of a leader or field general on defense is exactly the reason why he isn't the answer at MLB. Brooking provides more of that, and among other players, I know Mike Adams was brought in for that purpose and Champ Bailey provides some as well. DJ only remains with the Broncos because the Broncos valued Wesley Woodyard on special teams and weren't sure if he was truly the guy they wanted to be the starting Will. Now we've seen quite a bit from Woodyard that indicates he can handle it, plus we have others on special teams who are stepping up. The only thing that might keep DJ around is an injury to another player.

Posted by Bob on 2012-10-02 15:30:19

Well, like I said, Brookings makes the most sense for now.

Mays played college ball at a minor program, not 1A.2 years with the Eagles as a ST player (any developent as LB at all?)1 year as a 34 ILB which isn't that similar to 43 MIKE1 year as MIKE under Fox/DA.3 games as MIKE under Fox/JDR

Now if he had played in the SEC/BIGhowevermany/PAChowevermany as a MIKE and 5 years in the NFL groomed at MIKE, then yes I would agree that he is what he is and there's not point in further attempts at development. That's not the case.

That said, I wouldn't not draft a MIKE or sign a FA next offseason if the opportunity came up.

Posted by A R on 2012-10-02 15:25:30

GreasyQtip Greasy, I'm not sure that there's a dime in trade to be had with DJ. After all - he's coming off an ugly suspension in which he may have proved that he can't even cheat right (I still consider the facts suspicious on both sides), and is having that suspension extended due to his DWAI conviction. He's not like Jared Allen, who had an alcohol problem but was/is an elite talent. DJ is a good, but not great player when his head's in the game, but also a drag tackler who is suspect in coverage who's on the edge of being suspended for a full season. His contract is also a major stumbling block:

2012: $5 million, 2013: $6 million, 2014: Free Agent

DJ wasn't at Mike before - he was starting at Will and in the nickel package. WW can do both better, and did this week. Our issue is how to keep a functional MLB on the field and right now, I think that Brookings' the smart move.

I share your enjoyment of the way the team is developing players - let's hope they are successful with Trevathan et al. Irving is suffering a concussion right now, but is currently a serviceable backup who might become more. I hope so, although he's dealing with insufficient speed; something that might be improved with film study and explosion exercises.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-10-02 15:06:49

I know he's not popular 'round here, but DJ Williams may be worth a shot at MLB. He played there in 2007 and played ILB for Nolan in 2009 too and had good years in each case. He may be a moron after a few drinks, but he may be Denver's best option at MLB this season. He is still a specimen and he has better athleticism than either Mays or Brooking. That said, I've never read/heard/seen DJ act as the leader/field general like Brooking seemed to do on Sunday.

Denver's D used to fall apart when Dawk would get hurt & miss games/plays. They sorely need an on field veteran leader.

I'd like to hear someone make a good case for Joe Mays as the starting MLB, contract aside.

Anyone?

Posted by Super7 on 2012-10-02 14:50:47

Lets see, really the only available FA Linebacker right now is E.J. Henderson. Lofu Tatupu is a FA, but injured.

I'm still hoping there is some way we can draft Teo next year. As looking over the team I see MLB the #1 need. #2 & #3 would be DLine and OLine depth, with #4 need being RB possible.

Posted by Chuck Breedlove on 2012-10-02 14:38:10

This is his 5th year. You can toss 1 or 2 of them for his lack of play on the field, but we are past the point of developing Mays IMO. He is what he is. There are too many problems with his play to have him starting for our team.

Posted by sadaraine on 2012-10-02 14:30:03

DeMeco Ryans might've been a nice addition but otherwise I agree.

Posted by AndrewR4488 on 2012-10-02 14:16:43

Mays is in his 5th season in the NFL, the first two with the Eagles. Last year was his first as a starter. He's on his third DC with the Broncos. A bit of a whirlwind for him.It might help him a lot to be on the sidelines and watch an old Pro direct the defense from the Mike spot.

Posted by bradley on 2012-10-02 13:56:36

I was also impressed with the upgrade that Brooking brought to the position this weekend. He reminds us of what we have lost as players like Lynch, Wilson, Dawkins (in the few games that he was ever healthy), etc. have had to move on. I am sure it really jumps out to people like Mecklenburg. We just haven't had a linebacker who can line up the defense and read the opposing offense's keys in quite a while. Meck once said in an interview that being the QB of the defense was the hardest thing he ever had to do as a player. It has always been hard for me to understand the contract that they gave Mays, but I think that one of the most important driving factors was that he was the best of a mostly bad group of choices. Other than Curtis Loften, I can't really think of an MLB that could have been had this off season that would be better. I have also looked in FA a little and don't see too many coming available, although I think Urlacher's contract is over after this season. I can't see Chicago letting him go. With the headcase Catler at QB, he is the adult in the organization, and from what I understand Chicago is still Urlacher's team. Sooo, the player I am curious about is Jonathan Vilma. New Orleans has Loften and it seems like Vilma might be interested in a fresh start elsewhere and even play with his old teammate DJ Williams. He also might be had this season. Anyway, Vilma is the best candidate that I have been able to come up with. Also, in terms of the overall strength of the linebacking corps, I really haven't seen Mays do anything better than say Mohamed.

Posted by Broncos777 on 2012-10-02 13:54:42

Thank you Doc for the write up and something I have been hoping for since the game ended. It was clear that the LB's played MUCH better in the Raiders game than they have in a long time. I know the Raiders aren't a great team but they haven't been for quite some time and they still gashed us for long runs every time they played us until last Sunday. To me this plays into Del Rio and Fox's hand, they didn't bench Mays, he was suspended and the guy who filled in for him played much better. Should be easy to convince the locker room that it is the best move for the team. Mays also has been outspoken that he hasn't gotten it done, so he should more than understand the move.

Posted by Bronco_JJ on 2012-10-02 13:52:54

I've never been a fan of DJ at Mike, personally. He doesn't seem to have the downfield playing style that you need at Mike, and he's struggled there in the past. That said, with the lack of depth at LB right now it's not a bad idea. Personally, I'd go with Woodyard, Brooking, and Miller (with Brooking coming off the field in nickle packages).

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-10-02 13:28:47

I'm just thinking that with Vilma coming back there isn't much reason to keep him and Lofton. Since he's the free agent next year...

Other than him I didn't really see any free agent I would think about ditching Brooking for if he starts.

We could get Niko Koutivides...:-)

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2012-10-02 13:25:59

For now, go with the guy that can get the job done now. And that is Brooking.

As for the future, I'm not ready to write off Irving or Mays yet. Unless the team pulls off an unlikely mid-season trade, nothing is going to happen until the offseason anyway. See where Mays and Irving are at the end of the season and see what's in the draft and free agent classes.

Before giving up on Mays, I want to ask how much of his problems are correctable. His speed is a physical limitation. His play can be improved. When the trade was made he was a raw player and I doubt that he's reached his ceiling. Did the Eagles show any interest or make any attempt to develop Mays as a LB, or just have him stashed on special teams? He's not dumb. He's not lazy. He's not uncoachable. Future improvement is possible, maybe even likely.

And if the offseason comes around and Mays hasn't improved enough to merit keeping him around (and he won't take a pay cut) the team can cut him and take a cap hit of less than a million.

Posted by A R on 2012-10-02 13:25:59

Fan in Exile I haven't done enough film work on him, so I'll have a better opinion after I prep for the NO game. On the surface, they have to have him and the rest of the available MLBs on the board at this point. Big kudos to Brooking though - he played the game as well as he called it, which is saying a lot. I'll keep Ruud in mind - thanks

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-10-02 13:02:19

I agree. Start Brooking in the middle and let Mays try to take it away.

We do need to look long term at a solution. FA seems the best. Both Irving and Mohammed have played MIKE in college - but neither are there yet @ the 2 yr mark. Thanks, Doc, for a good piece of work.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-10-02 13:01:41

Agreed. I've never been impressed with Joe Mays as our Mike. Dude's overpaid. Dude's overplayed. Time to turn the ship around at Mike & go with the graybeard, Brooking.

Posted by Chad N Jensen on 2012-10-02 12:58:08

DJ back to Mike when he returns? Some way to keep WW on the field? Or trade DJ and try to land a serviceable MLB?

Personally, I like how this regime is giving players time to develop, perhaps they still see something in Irving or are encouraged by the Rookies.

Posted by GreasyQtip on 2012-10-02 12:54:04

I've said it before, and it bears repeating. Joe Mays is our present-day version of Keith Burns. Guy you love to have on the team. Special teams force. But, just. not. quite. good. enough. to be getting a lot of snaps on D. Hopefully we can restructure his contract to keep him around in his ideal role next year.

Posted by QDoc on 2012-10-02 12:51:38

It seems the way the Mays deal was structured is that we really don't have a huge financial investment in him beyond this year. Wesley Woodyard should never, ever come off the field, he is playing like one of the top linebackers in the league right now. Hopefully the Broncos will not be stubborn and go ahead and make the change.

Posted by RockyMtnThunder on 2012-10-02 12:50:37

Doc, I was looking at the LB free agents for next year and it seems a little thin. What do you think of Barret Ruud?