Deployment

My plan is to push Caine up the middle, send the Centurion to contest the left zone, using the remaining units to clear and control my zone.

High Reclaimer has a nasty assassination threat, but Caine with Bullet Dodger can be hard to assassinate unless he can box me in. Even with 4 dice take 2 on Examplars with minifeat and Hand of Fate he needs to roll 2 sixes on 4 dice to hit, and if he misses then Caine starts dodging away.

On the other hand, I cannot Trick Shot assassinate the High Reclaimer.

Both lists are very attrition based. I expect a long grind!

Deployment

Turn 1

High Reclaimer moves up and creates a cloud wall.

I move up and create a smoke fort around Caine. Caine gets Bullet Dodger and the Trenchers get Heightened Reflexes. Caine shoots away the center Monk and Gate Crashes back into safety.

I misplace a Trencher which prevents me bouncing lighting off a Storm Lance with the Firefly, so the other Monk survives.

Turn 2

Idrians with Hand of Fate shoot hard. My Hunter is removed. Anastasia comes in on the right flank. His horses jam,

I try to remove all the horses by bouncing Trick Shots off the book into the horse in the forest, but unfortunately I miss a number of attacks on the right flank afterwards and some horses remain.

I forget to make space for the Centurion so he is unable to press forward to contest.

Turn 3

The High Reclaimer toes into the zone and starts scoring. His units engage and I have lost a lot of forces.

0-1

I am way down on attrition, and my opponent has started scoring. But the High Reclaimer is not completely safe where he is standing. I clear a path for a Ranger to run within 5" of the High Reclaimer. Then, the Centurion clears the spot where Caine needs to stand without being engaged. The GMCA moves up and tries to Flare, needing an 8, but I don't hit.

Caine moves up and starts shooting. My dice are hot and I miss only one single shot on 7+. The eigth shot is enough to fell him.

Cygnar wins by assassination!

Post Morten

Haha, that was just lucky. Or was it?

If I had hit with the GMCA then I would have had a good chance, but since I missed I needed crazy rolls. Getting 7 out of 9 hits is only a 20% chance on 7+, and when he is camping 3 Focus I need around that many hits to get the job done. Had I got the GMCA on him then I have an 82% chance to get 7 hits, and hitting that single shot was a 42% chance. All in all, this means that my run has around a 40% chance of success.

Anyway, it was the right play, no way I could have won any other way, and it paid off.

The matchup feels pretty rough for Caine. His list is grindy, and hits very hard, so I think he can just skip assassinating and focus on killing all my stuff.