According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC ) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker ,
2015 will be the first full year of single-digit worldwide smartphone
growth. IDC predicts worldwide smartphone shipments will grow 9.8% in
2015 to a total of 1.43 billion units.

IDC updated its previous forecast
to reflect slowing growth in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin
America, and Western Europe. The slower growth is expected to intensify
slightly over the 2015-2019 forecast period and is largely attributed to
lower shipment forecasts for Windows Phone as well as "alternative
platforms" (phones running operating systems other than Android, iOS,
and Windows Phone).

China has been the focal point of the
smartphone market in recent quarters as its economic slowdown has
dampened worldwide growth due to the sheer size of the market. However,
IDC maintains its view that China has largely become a replacement
market.

As a result, shipment growth in China is only forecast to be in
the low single digits. The Middle East & Africa (MEA) region will
see the highest growth in 2015 with shipments expected to increase
nearly 50% year over year, surpassing "hot growth" markets like India
and Indonesia.

"With the smartphone market finally slowing to single-digit growth, maintaining momentum will depend on several factors," said Ryan Reith , Program Director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker .
"The main driver has been and will continue to be the success of
low-cost smartphones in emerging markets. This, in turn, will depend on
capturing value-oriented first-time smartphone buyers as well as
replacement buyers.

We believe that, in a number of high-growth markets,
replacement cycles will be less than the typical two-year rate, mainly
because the components that comprise a sub-$100 smartphone simply do not
have the ability to survive two years. Offering products that appeal to
both types of buyers at a suitable price point will be crucial to
maintaining growth and vendor success."

"As shipment volumes continue to slow across
many markets, consumers will be enticed by both affordable high-value
handsets as well as various financing options on pricier models," said Anthony Scarsella , Research Manager with IDC's Mobile Phones
team. "Vendors will look to push device financing and trade-in options
across many of the developed markets as growth in these markets is
expected to primarily come from replacement purchases and second
devices.

Apple has taken the lead with its iPhone Upgrade Program, and
several other vendors are expected to implement similar plans in the
months ahead.

These plans could represent the most effective way to get
flagship devices into the hands of consumers while speeding up the
upgrade cycle through trade-in and incentives."

Android: Android's market share is
expected to grow slightly from 81% in 2015 to 82% over the forecast
period. Despite numerous attempts by "alternative platforms" to enter
the market, none have proved successful. IDC believes the proliferation
of the core Android platform will continue with huge efforts being put
forth by companies like Cyanogen and Xiaomi to differentiate themselves
from their competitors. Given its global footprint and
application/services ecosystem, IDC fully expects some form of Android
to hold a dominant share of the smartphone OS space for the foreseeable
future.

iOS: IDC has raised its 4Q15 iPhone
numbers by 7.6% based on continued consumer demand for the 6(+) and
S6(+) lineups, as well as smooth supply chain foresight. As mentioned in
previous releases, the market share forecast for iOS is expected to
remain around 14-15% annually, with clear spikes around product
launches. As the majority of Apple's core markets have transitioned into
replacement markets, Apple's move to get into the iPhone trade-in space
is not surprising. The possible challenge in 2-3 years' time could
quite possibly be excess inventory in the developing markets that
refurbished iPhones are sold into. However, the lead time to solve a
problem of this nature does not present any immediate concerns to IDC.

Windows Phone: Despite all the effort
Microsoft has put into the launch of Windows 10, IDC does not expect
Microsoft's share of the smartphone OS market to grow much over the
coming years. In 2015, IDC expects the average selling price (ASP) of
Windows Phones to be $148, which is $71 lower than Android's ASP of
$219. This was brought about by the Microsoft/Nokia push into the
low-end mass market. While this approach helped drive shipments up to
34.9 million units in 2014, IDC is forecasting a year-over-year decline
of -10.2% in 2015, followed by further decline in 2016.

The weak results
can largely be attributed to the lack of OEM partner support.