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NFL Picks

Best To Avoid Colts-Texans On Spread; Go Low Instead

The Colts’ offense was stuck in neutral last week after running hot the previous five weeks. Let’s see why betting Sunday's Indy-Houston matchup on the side doesn’t make much sense, but look instead at the total.

Football is a funny game. Take, for instance, last week when the Colts, averaging 34.6 points per game over their five-game winning streak, met the Jacksonville Jaguars for their second meeting of the season. Indianapolis scored a 29-26 victory over Jacksonville only three weeks prior but their offense was stopped cold in their 6-0 shutout loss. Who’d have predicted that? Granted, Jacksonville has one of the premier defensive units in the game but the way Indy was rolling, a shutout was the last thing anyone expected.

And it is for that reason that we’re a bit wary of backing the Colts this week, or their opponents for that matter, the white-hot Houston Texans. It could be feast or famine considering the 37-34 loss the Colts suffered to the Texans in Week 4, which is why we are turning our eyes to the total in this one. When these teams met in September, neither defense played particularly well, and for the better part of the season, the Colts relied solely on the arm of Andrew Luck to get them through while their defense struggled. But that seems to be a thing of the past as Indy’s defense has awoken and should be able to contain Houston's balanced attack.

The only negative I perceive with this total going low is the fact that Indianapolis’ Marlon Mack might find the sledding tough against a Texans’ defense that ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed (91.3 YPG) in addition to coming off a concussion suffered last week against the Jags. If the Colts’ rushing game gets grounded and the Texans take a commanding lead, Luck will be forced to put on an air show. Of course, we expect plenty of passing from the Colts regardless, but the more time they feed the rock to the backfield, the more time on the clock ticks uninterrupted.

Despite the fact that these teams combined for 71 points early in the season, both defenses have improved and I see this one as much more of a defensive struggle. The NFL odds on this total are rather lofty, hovering at about 49½ as of this midweek writing. Just take a look at all the trends begging us, pleading with us, to go "under" in our NFL picks:

Under is 6-0 in Colts' last six games vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 21-5 in Colts' last 26 games in December.

Under is 4-1 in Colts' last five games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Colts' last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 4-0 in Texans' last four games in Week 14.

Under is 4-0 in Texans' last four games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.