Votershttp://www.businessinsider.com/category/voters
en-usTue, 03 Mar 2015 18:24:22 -0500Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:24:22 -0500The latest news on Voters from Business Insiderhttp://static3.businessinsider.com/assets/images/bilogo-250x36-wide-rev.pngBusiness Insiderhttp://www.businessinsider.com
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-gop-could-really-do-to-obamacare-this-year-2015-1What The GOP Could Really Do to Obamacare This Yearhttp://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-gop-could-really-do-to-obamacare-this-year-2015-1
Tue, 06 Jan 2015 11:15:40 -0500Brianna Ehley
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/546ba44a6bb3f7fc04300547-1200-924/mitch-mcconnell-boehner-reid-3.jpg" border="0" alt="Mitch McConnell Boehner Reid"></p><p>Now that Congress is back in Washington with a Republican majority, you can expect another symbolic Obamacare repeal vote that will be quickly quashed by the president’ veto pen. But there are a number of actual fixes to the health law and other health policies that Congress could realistically take up this year—maybe even in bipartisan fashion.</p>
<p>The issues all include policy tweaks that likely require congressional action. They range in unintended consequences from the way the law was written that are disproportionately affecting poor people, to an expiring insurance program for low-income children (the Children’s Health Insurance Program or CHIP) that needs to be reauthorized by the end of the year.&nbsp;</p>
<p>There are other pieces of Obamacare that lawmakers will likely also take up—including potentially repealing the law’s medical device tax, as well as the employer mandate—though that one is less likely.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Both of those issues also have bipartisan support in Congress; however, it’s more plausible that lawmakers tweak the law’s language than make actual policy changes.&nbsp;</p>
<p>For example, a flaw in the way the Internal Revenue Service wrote regulatory rules under the law created something called the “family glitch” that made health insurance unaffordable for millions of people—many in the low-income bracket.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have introduced measures to fix the glitch, but with the combination of usual gridlock and the midterm elections, they’ve been hesitant to make any real attempts to get rid of it.&nbsp;</p>
<p>These issues have support from both sides of the aisle, however, it is unclear how productive the 114ths Congress will be.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Here are the three health policy fixes lawmakers could reasonably make this year:&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>The Family Glitch&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;<br>The “family glitch” is an unintended consequence of the law’s language. When the Internal Revenue Service wrote the regulatory rules defining who’s eligible to receive federal subsidies, it said people who have access to employer health care can’t qualify for subsidies, nor can their families. Under the law’s employer mandate, midsized to large employers are required to cover individuals and offer affordable coverage—(about 9.5 percent of household income.)</p>
<p>So, when a person has access to health care through their employer, but the rest of their family isn’t covered—their family members still are deemed ineligible to receive financial help through the exchanges because of the way the law was written. Most policy experts and lawmakers agree that this was not what the law intended, which is why there are a number of proposals to try and remedy it.</p>
<p>For example, Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) introduced a bill that would amend the law to determine affordability based on the cost of family-based coverage---not just an individual’s. The bill also says the administration has authority to adjust the language so families can receive the subsidies. According to the American Action Forum, if lawmakers do nothing to address the glitch more than 1.93 million Americans will be affected.</p>
<p><strong>Reauthorizing CHIP</strong>&nbsp;<br>The Children’s Health Insurance Program, a federal-state partnership insurance program for poor children, is set to run out of funding in September. Congress has until then to reauthorize funding for the program or millions of kids will lose their health coverage. Right now, about 6 million children receive health care through CHIP.</p>
<p>In June, the Medicaid and CHIP Payment Access Commission (MACPAC) called on Congress to extend CHIP for two years to allow time to make policy changes that would make the Affordable Care Act better serve children. So far, there are two pieces of legislation, one in the House and one in the Senate, that propose new funding for CHIP. Just last month, a bipartisan group of 39 governors signed a letter of support for a four-year funding extension for CHIP. Still, it’s unclear if we’ll see similar bipartisanship in Washington before September.</p>
<p><strong>Fixing Pay-for-Performance<br></strong>The Affordable Care Act’s pay-for-performance provision was supposed to improve the quality of care and get the U.S. health care system away form the traditional fee-for-service model. But because the program evaluates performance by a hospital’s readmission rates, it’s unfairly penalizing hospitals that serve&nbsp;<a href="http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2014/04/28/If-You-Don-t-Take-Your-Meds-Should-Your-MD-Be-Punished">primarily poor populations</a>.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Here’s how it works: Medicare and private insurance companies pay providers based on their performance and patient outcomes. If a hospital has high readmission rates, it gets penalized. If readmission rates are low, the hospital gets more funding. Though the intention is good—reward good hospitals and doctors, punish the bad ones.&nbsp;</p>
<p>But it’s not that simple. Since, low-income patients are less likely to have successful outcomes (they may not be able to afford medication or transportation to get to their treatments) the hospitals primarily serving them may be unfairly labeled as “poor performers” and get hit with penalties. A panel of 26 experts commissioned by the Obama administration earlier this year recommended that the program should take the socioeconomic status of patients into account when evaluating hospitals. And lawmakers have listened.&nbsp;</p>
<p>In June, Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Bill Nelson (D-FL), proposed a bipartisan bill that would require Medicare to account for the socioeconomic status of each patient when calculating penalties. The measure received support from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle as well as a handful of health policy experts.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Still, like the other fixes, it’s unclear if a new divided government will actually make real progress this year.&nbsp;</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-gop-could-really-do-to-obamacare-this-year-2015-1#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/why-democrats-cant-win-over-white-working-class-voters-2014-11Democrats Still Can't Win A Key Demographic Group In Americahttp://www.businessinsider.com/why-democrats-cant-win-over-white-working-class-voters-2014-11
Sat, 15 Nov 2014 20:16:00 -0500Jamelle Bouie
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/54680aea69bedd630c2919de-1200-800/rtr4dsix.jpg" border="0" alt="farmer sunset"></p><p>The Democratic Party styles itself a fighter for the working class.</p>
<p>But a substantial part of that class—the white part—wants nothing to do with it. If we count the white working class as whites without college degrees, then congressional Democrats lost them by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/race/house#exit-polls" target="_blank">30 points</a>&nbsp;in last week’s elections, contributing to losses in states as diverse as Iowa, Maine, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida.</p>
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<p>But then none of this is new. Democrats lost working class whites by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1" target="_blank">a similar margin in 2010</a>, with almost identical results: A wipeout of Senate seats, House districts, and governorships across the country, in states as liberal as Michigan and Wisconsin. They recovered somewhat in the presidential election—losing working-class whites by<a href="http://www.christianpost.com/news/survey-white-working-class-voters-crucial-to-republican-victories-129604/" target="_blank">&nbsp;just 20 points</a>—and winning the race (and a stronger Senate majority) as a result.</p>
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<p>Which gets to an important point: The white working class is a&nbsp;huge&nbsp;subset of Americans. “Close to half of white men and 35–40 percent of white women in the labor force are still essentially ‘working class,’ ” finds liberal commentator Andrew Levison in his book&nbsp;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00D62GCAG/?tag=slatmaga-20" target="_blank">The White Working Class Today</a>. “Their occupations are basically blue collar rather than white collar and their earnings fall far below their white collar counterparts.” And in that category are groups of reachable voters: Union members and low-skilled young workers in particular. Democrats don’t have to win this group as much as they have to avoid a rout. If they can do that—and hold Republicans to a majority rather than a supermajority—then they can avoid the Republican waves of the recent midterm elections, and strengthen their presidential majority.</p>
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<p>Hence the recurring debate of how to win these voters, or at least a portion of them. In a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/junejulyaugust_2014/features/beyond_identity_politics050650.php" target="_blank">recent feature</a>&nbsp;for the&nbsp;<em>Washington Monthly</em>, for example, Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin argue that Democrats can capitalize on the&nbsp;<em>generational divide</em>&nbsp;in the white working class. The key fact is that “white working class” is a big category with a large number of different kinds of voters, including millennials, who fall to the left on most national issues. “Today’s young white working-class voters are notably more liberal on issues concerning the role of government” than their older counterparts note Teixeira and Halpin. And significantly these young whites are “significantly more open to rising diversity than the white working class as a whole.”</p>
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<p>The conclusion is straightforward. Democrats don’t have to worry about alienating these voters with their cosmopolitanism. If they can just embrace a populist, forward thinking agenda—in which they tackle stagnation and explicitly attack the wealthy engineers of extreme income inequality—they can win these younger whites who are comfortable with diversity and want a more level society. As Noam Scheiber writes for the<em>&nbsp;New Republic</em>,<a href="http://h/" target="_blank">commenting on&nbsp;</a><a href="http://h/" target="_blank">Teixeira and Halpin’s</a><a href="http://h/" target="_blank">&nbsp;piece</a>, “The politics of this approach work not just because populism is a ‘message’ that a majority of voters want to hear. But because, unlike the status quo, it can actually improve their economic prospects.”</p>
<p class="float_left"><img class="float_left" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/51d335e969bedd250800000b-1200-924/rtr2zz3h.jpg" border="0" alt="farmer, american farmer"></p>
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<p>Implicit in all of this is the assumption voters will believe the pitch. That they’ll hear the case for stronger programs, higher minimum wages, and higher taxes on the rich, and believe Democrats are advocating for them, and not some other group.</p>
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<p>The problem is I don’t think we can make that assumption.</p>
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<p>After all, working-class whites didn’t leave the Democratic Party over insufficiently populist policy and rhetoric. The liberal economic reforms of 1960s—and Medicare in particular—paid benefits to white working-class families throughout the 1970s and ’80s, even as the group moved to a decisive break with the Democrats. No, the proximate cause of the break was the Democratic Party’s close identification with black Americans, who—after the riots of the late ’60s and ’70s—became identified with urban disorder and welfare.</p>
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<p>Specifically, whites were bewildered and infuriated with liberals who defended rioting communities—<a href="http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/6545/" target="_blank">correctly noting</a>&nbsp;the decades of deprivation and abuse that led to those violent outbursts—and pushed anti-poverty programs to address the underlying conditions. Black incomes rose while at the same time, many white incomes were beginning to stagnate or even fall.&nbsp;<em>Why was the government spending our tax dollars on them</em>, working-class whites asked,&nbsp;<em>when they destroy their neighborhoods and refuse to work, and we’re losing our jobs and our homes?</em>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In&nbsp;<a href="http://www.amazon.com/dp/074324303X/?tag=slatmaga-20" target="_blank"><em>Nixonland</em></a>, historian Rick Perlstein captures the basic attitude by relaying this comment from a white construction worker, directed at George McGovern, “They’re payin’ people who are on welfare today doin’ nothin’! They’re laughin’ at our society! And we’re all hardworkin’ people and we’re gettin’ laughed at for workin’ every day!”</p>
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<p>Part of this was just racism. For most of the post-war era, whites were&nbsp;<a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-reparations/361631/" target="_blank">empowered by the federal government</a>&nbsp;to separate themselves and their lives from black Americans. For the white middle class, federal aid built white suburbs and white schools, and for the white working-class, it built segregated housing projects and cities. The civil rights revolution brought blacks and black demands to their doorsteps, and for the white working class—which couldn’t just leave for the suburbs—it fueled a backlash.</p>
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<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/51d71d63eab8eac358000004-1200-800/rtr3evqf.jpg" border="0" alt="american flag sowing machine jobs factory worker">But part of it was something broader. After all, there wasn’t a backlash to government programs writ large. Then, as now, working-class whites are ardent supporters of Social Security and Medicare.</p>
<p>But to them, our retirement programs came with an implicit social contract: If you work and contribute to society, society will care for you into your old age.</p>
<p>By contrast, you didn’t have to work to benefit from anti-poverty programs, in fact, you could&nbsp;<em>riot</em>&nbsp;and still receive government benefits. To these whites, the New Deal and its successor programs rewarded self-reliance and independence. The War on Poverty didn’t. And they hated it.</p>
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<p>You didn’t have to be an especially astute politician to see this was an electoral winner. Richard Nixon ran—and won—on resentment to black demands for equality, and Ronald Reagan channeled anti-welfare attitudes into two landslide wins for a muscular, hard right conservatism.</p>
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<p>The grievances haven’t gone away, and in era of slow growth and stagnant wages, they’ve likely gotten worse. It’s why, in the 2012 presidential election, Republican nominee Mitt Romney ran a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/20/mitt-romney-welfare-ad_n_1810134.html" target="_blank">series of ads</a>—concentrated in the white working-class areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania—attacking President Obama for “gutting welfare” and “cutting checks” to people who wouldn’t work. For as much as this was plainly racial—welfare is still associated with blacks in the public mind—it also reflected a genuine frustration with the shape of the world.</p>
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<p>Working-class whites are physically closer to the poor. And to them, as Kevin Drum&nbsp;<a href="http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/11/can-we-talk-heres-why-white-working-class-hates-democrats" target="_blank">notes</a>, the poor are often “folks next door who don’t do a lick of work but somehow keep getting government checks paid for by their tax dollars.” It doesn’t matter that working-class tax rates are relatively low, and that anti-poverty programs are a small part of the federal budget. What matters is that&nbsp;<em>they</em>&nbsp;pay taxes but don’t get the same kind of benefits. Again, here’s Drum:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>It’s pointless to argue that this perception is wrong. Maybe it is, maybe it’s not. But it’s there. And although it’s bound up with plenty of other grievances—many of them frankly racial, but also cultural, religious, and geographic—at its core you have a group of people who are struggling and need help, but instead feel like they simply get taxed and taxed for the benefit of someone else. Always someone else. If this were you, you wouldn't vote for Democrats either.</span></p>
<p><span><span>Democrats can adopt populist rhetoric, but there’s no guarantee working-class whites will buy it. Indeed, in parts of the country—like the Deep South—it’s a lost cause. The Democratic Party is too associated with blacks and too associated with welfare to win over enough whites to make a difference.</span></span></p>
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<p>Put another way, for a new rhetoric of populism to work—or at least, attract the winnable whites identified by Teixeira and Halpin—it needs to come with a commitment to universal policies that working-class whites like and support. (It’s no coincidence that the most liberal working-class whites&nbsp;<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/20/can-unions-save-the-white-working-class-vote-for-democrats/%20%20" target="_blank">belong to private and public sector unions</a>.)</p>
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<p>But the United States doesn’t have a political party to support that kind of social democracy. Instead, it has the Democratic Party, a collection of disparate interests which—at its best—is nervous about economic liberalism and hesitant to push anything outside the mainstream. And worse, it has a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.hillaryclinton.com/" target="_blank">presidential frontrunner</a>&nbsp;who—more than anyone else—is connected to the kinds of elites and the kinds of policies that would push the party&nbsp;<em>away</em>&nbsp;from the muscular liberalism it needs.</p>
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<p>&nbsp;</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-democrats-cant-win-over-white-working-class-voters-2014-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/catalonias-future-let-them-vote-2014-11Catalonia's Future: Let Them Votehttp://www.businessinsider.com/catalonias-future-let-them-vote-2014-11
Fri, 14 Nov 2014 17:44:00 -0500
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5466848aeab8eaef4a4240ff-600-/catalan1-2.jpg" border="0" alt="catalan1" width="600">SECESSION is a nasty business. A century and a half ago, America fought a civil war to prevent it. So it is not surprising that Spain, which has bad memories of its own civil war, should oppose independence for Catalonia. </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Spain's refusal to allow a referendum on the issue is, however, matched by Catalonia's determination to hold one--hence the vote the regional government held on November 9th, in which 80% of those who participated voted for independence (see "Catalonia's future: Voting in their hearts"). The government in Madrid called the vote illegal, and a failure because turnout was only 37%; the Catalan one said that it demonstrated the case for Catalonia's independence.</span></p>
<p>Neither is right. The case for holding a referendum is strong, but if there is one, Catalonia should vote to stay part of Spain.</p>
<h3>Better together</h3>
<p>The Popular Party government under Mariano Rajoy is holding firm to the position that, under the 1978 constitution, no referendum can be held at all. That line owes something to the government's desire to win nationalist votes in next year's Spanish election, but it also springs from genuine fear about what would happen to Spain if Catalonia peeled off.</p>
<p>Catalan nationalists have drawn strength from the Scottish referendum earlier this year, but Catalonia is not Scotland. In relation to the rest of Spain, it is twice as big, with around 16% of the country's population. It is also much richer, contributing almost a fifth of GDP and, unlike Scotland, transferring substantial sums to the rest of the country. Moreover, Spain has other restless regions: were Catalonia to go, so might the Basque Country and Galicia. Catalan independence would thus pose a serious risk to Spain's very existence.</p>
<p><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/54668501ecad04996e6c8460-1120-840/catalan-catalonia-barcelona-7.jpg" border="0" alt="catalan catalonia barcelona">Yet there are both principled and pragmatic reasons why the government should permit a vote. On the first, it is right to be cautious about breaking up countries, but when a region is a recognisable cultural, ethnic or linguistic entity, outright refusal to allow a vote is perverse. It would have been wrong to force Slovakia to remain in Czechoslovakia or Kosovo in Serbia, just as it was wrong for Britain to fight Irish independence. It would be just as wrong to make Flanders remain Belgian, Quebec stay Canadian or Scotland continue to be British, if a clear majority of voters preferred independence.</p>
<p>The pragmatic case for a referendum is that, until recently, polls suggested that fewer than half of Catalans wanted independence, but a huge majority believed they should have the right to choose. The evidence is that, by rejecting the second demand, Madrid is helping the separatists.</p>
<p>So the government should let the Catalans have a referendum. It should set some conditions, such as a minimum turnout of 80%, and maybe even a second vote, three years later. As Canada did with Quebec in its 2000 Clarity Act, it should insist on a fair process in any vote--a clear question that gets a clear answer, in other words. It should then devote its energy to persuading the Catalans to stay. As with Scotland, this newspaper would be on that side of the argument.</p>
<p>Catalonia cannot plausibly claim to be a victim of central-government oppression. Catalan business and finance has benefited from being part of Spain, whose economy once again is growing. Excessive Catalan nationalism is more of a danger. It has already damaged the publishing and media industries in Barcelona. And secession would also raise doubts about Catalonia's continuing membership of the European Union (and the euro).</p>
<p>The Spanish government could do plenty to persuade Catalonia to stay--as the British government belatedly did with Scotland. It should restore the powers that were ruled against by the Spanish constitutional court in 2010. It should also promise a constitutional convention that looks again at the distribution of powers agreed on in 1978. Spain is already the most devolved country in Europe. But although spending is often done at regional level, policies are frequently still laid down in Madrid. And powers of taxation could also be re-examined. As the opposition Socialists are hinting, a federal structure modelled on Germany's might suit both Catalonia and Spain.</p>
<p>With an imaginative government at the centre, Catalonia might well vote to stay with Spain. But the issue now is whether Mr Rajoy wants to treat voters as grown-ups who can be trusted to decide sensibly about their own political future. By refusing even to contemplate a referendum for Catalonia on independence, he is failing to do that.</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="https://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT1jNzVhOThjNzk5MjE1NDAyMTBiNDZiNTMzNzAyOWM4YSZwdWJsaXNoZXI9NzMwZWI4NmFiNTlmMGQ0MTkyNmFjNjViMDFmODNlMmY=" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1"></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/catalonias-future-let-them-vote-2014-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-minimum-wage-sweep-means-for-us-workers-2014-11What The Minimum-Wage Sweep Means For US Workershttp://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-minimum-wage-sweep-means-for-us-workers-2014-11
Fri, 07 Nov 2014 10:47:00 -0500Mark Trumbull
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5459375069bedd8f395b97ba-1200-797/seattle vote to raise minimum wage.jpg" border="0" alt="Seattle Vote to Raise Minimum Wage"></p><p>Even in a year when voters went heavily Republican in their selection of elected officials, voters in four generally conservative states opted to support one of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Barack+Obama" target="_self" title="Title: Barack Obama" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">President Obama</a>’s top economic priorities: higher pay levels for workers at the bottom rung of the wage ladder.</p>
<p>The minimum wage votes mean higher pay for hundreds of thousands of Americans.</p>
<p>Wage-hike advocates say the votes <span>—</span>&nbsp;which affect&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Alaska" target="_self" title="Title: Alaska" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Alaska</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Arkansas" target="_self" title="Title: Arkansas" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Arkansas</a>,<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Nebraska" target="_self" title="Title: Nebraska" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Nebraska</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/South+Dakota" target="_self" title="Title: South Dakota" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">South Dakota</a>&nbsp;— signal strong public backing nationwide for boosting minimum pay in an economy where inflation has been outpacing pay for many workers.</p>
<p>“This is not a partisan issue for working folks, but a practical one,” said&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Christine+Owens+(Executive)" target="_self" title="Title: Christine Owens (Executive)" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Christine Owens</a>, executive director of the National Employment Law Project (NELP), which supported the wage hikes. “People understand that $7.25 is not nearly enough to make ends meet.”</p>
<p>The wage hikes in those conservative states not only passed, but did so by wide margins.</p>
<p>In all, some 600,000 low-wage workers in the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/United+States" target="_self" title="Title: United States" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">US</a>&nbsp;stand to get higher pay thanks to the votes, according to an estimate by NELP and the Economic Policy Institute. An additional 1.1 million workers would benefit if governments in Illinois and parts of Wisconsin follow through on advisory votes on the issue this week, the groups estimate.</p>
<p>Higher pay for low-income workers won’t, by itself, solve America’s economic challenges. The move can make entry-level jobs harder to come by, some academic research finds. And wage gains at the bottom don’t necessarily do much for stagnant pay in middle-tier jobs.</p>
<p>But many economists see the modest raises for low-wages earners as a plus, on balance, not only for those workers but for the wider economy.</p>
<p>The argument that the minimum wage should also be a “living wage” resonated in cities as well as states. Voters in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/San+Francisco" target="_self" title="Title: San Francisco" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">San Francisco</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Oakland" target="_self" title="Title: Oakland" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Oakland</a>,<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/California" target="_self" title="Title: California" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Calif.</a>, voted to raise their local minimums Tuesday, even though the idea failed in another California city, Eureka.</p>
<p>For the record, someone who earns the federal minimum of $7.25 for 40 hours a week would have enough income to be above the federal poverty line of $11,670 for an individual, but not enough to be above the $15,730 poverty line for supporting a two-person household.</p>
<p>Prior to the election, 23 states had minimum wages above the federal level (sometimes not by much), according to the National Conference of<br>State Legislatures.<strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>Arkansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota will help push that total to 29 US states by next year. (<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Hawaii" target="_self" title="Title: Hawaii" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Hawaii</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/West+Virginia" target="_self" title="Title: West Virginia" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">West Virginia</a>, and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Maryland" target="_self" title="Title: Maryland" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Maryland</a>&nbsp;also have new minimum wages set to take effect in 2015<strong>.</strong></p>
<p>In 2014​, other states raising their minimums included&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Connecticut" target="_self" title="Title: Connecticut" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Connecticut</a>,<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Delaware" target="_self" title="Title: Delaware" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Delaware</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Massachusetts" target="_self" title="Title: Massachusetts" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Massachusetts</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Michigan" target="_self" title="Title: Michigan" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Michigan</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Minnesota" target="_self" title="Title: Minnesota" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Minnesota</a>,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Rhode+Island" target="_self" title="Title: Rhode Island" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Rhode Island</a>, and ​Vermon​t​. And the city of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Seattle" target="_self" title="Title: Seattle" class="inform_link" rel="nofollow">Seattle</a>&nbsp;bumped its minimum wage up to a nation-leading $15 an hour.</p>
<p>In 2014 alone, minimum-wage hikes have occurred in Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Vermont, and West Virginia. And the city of Seattle bumped its minimum wage up to a nation-leading $15 an hour. Minimums can rise through ballot votes or legislation, including laws that index the wage to inflation annually.</p>
<p>The ballot votes Tuesday mean the minimum wage will rise to $9.75 in Alaska and to $9 in Nebraska (both in 2016). And it will rise to $8.50 in both South Dakota (by next year) and Arkansas (by 2017).</p>
<p>The minimum in Oakland will be $12.25 next year, and San Francisco will see its rate reach $15 in 2018.</p>
<p>In polls, most Americans say they support President Obama’s call for a higher federal minimum wage of $10.10 an hour. A September CBS News/New York Times poll found 70 percent of US adults were in favor of that idea, and 28 percent opposed.</p>
<p>Many economists embrace the idea, too.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_br0IEq5a9E77NMV" target="_blank">One survey&nbsp;</a>by the University of Chicago last year asked economists about the idea of a more modest hike to $9 an hour. Even though the survey participants were split on whether the move would mean fewer jobs for low-skilled workers, 47 percent said it would be a “desirable policy,” because of the pay benefits. Eleven percent thought it would be a bad idea, while 35 percent were uncertain or voiced no opinion.<span class="eos_marker" id="end-of-story"></span></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-minimum-wage-sweep-means-for-us-workers-2014-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/the-unrest-in-ferguson-mi-is-having-one-positive-outcome--a-huge-rise-in-voter-registration-2014-10The Unrest In Ferguson, MI Is Having One Positive Outcome — A Huge Rise In Voter Registrationhttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-unrest-in-ferguson-mi-is-having-one-positive-outcome--a-huge-rise-in-voter-registration-2014-10
Fri, 03 Oct 2014 08:18:34 -0400Mark Trumbull
<p><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/542e934d69bedd061689a60f-1200-924/ferguson-michael-brown-2.jpg" border="0" alt="ferguson michael brown"></p><p>After fiery protests in the wake of the death of Michael Brown, residents of Ferguson, Mo., are preparing to raise their voices in another way: They're registering to vote.</p>
<p>A constant theme underlying the tensions surrounding the shooting of Mr. Brown centered on the fact that a large majority of Ferguson residents are black, while the city council and police department are overwhelmingly white. Brown, who was unarmed, was black, while the police officer who shot him is white.</p>
<p>One key factor in the racial divide between the governed and the governing was low voting rates. For example, this past April, when Ferguson’s white mayor, James Knowles, was reelected to a three-year term, only 1,484 ballots were cast – about 12 percent of registered voters at the time.</p>
<p>Since the Aug. 9 shooting, however, more than 3,000 people in the Missouri city of 21,000 have registered to vote. That represents a increase of more than 25 percent in voter registration in just two months. Total voters registered in Ferguson are now 14,428 as of mid-day Thursday, and still rising, according to the St. Louis County Board of Elections.</p>
<p>The rise in registrations is a sign that outrage spawned by Mr. Brown’s death – and by an initial police response to protests that was seen as callous and heavy handed – may be translating into civic engagement.</p>
<p>The protests on Ferguson’s streets have already resulted in some changes in Ferguson. The city council has announced plans for a civilian review board for the police, and Police Chief Tom Jackson has issued a public apology to the Brown family for the loss of their son, even as a grand jury is weighing possible criminal charges against the police officer who shot Brown.</p>
<p>“Protest is very important to shake up communities and mobilize electoral coalitions” that expand diversity in government, says Christine Marie Sierra, a University of New Mexico political scientist who focuses on issues of race, ethnicity, and gender in government. But she says minority empowerment in US cities typically hinges on electing new leaders “who will bring forward different perspectives and different policies.”</p>
<p>Although the November election doesn’t involve municipal offices, events in Ferguson have been playing a role in St. Louis County campaigns. And come April, some city council seats in Ferguson will come up for election.</p>
<p>The county has an Oct. 8 deadline for people to be eligible to vote on Nov. 4.</p>
<p>The new voter enrollments already push Ferguson well above the national average for registrations. In 2012, some 71 percent of voting-age American citizens were registered (and 62 percent voted). In Ferguson, the US Census Bureau finds nearly 29 percent of the population to be under 18, which means that more than 90 percent of the population is registered.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/the-unrest-in-ferguson-mi-is-having-one-positive-outcome--a-huge-rise-in-voter-registration-2014-10#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/ourtime-and-jennxpenn-voting-2014-9YouTube Stars Are Replacing Hollywood A-Listers In Campaigns Encouraging Young People To Vote — And It Just Might Workhttp://www.businessinsider.com/ourtime-and-jennxpenn-voting-2014-9
Fri, 26 Sep 2014 09:17:00 -0400Caroline Moss
<p><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5424e8f0ecad04df6d15df21-908-501/screen shot 2014-09-26 at 12.17.21 am.png" border="0" alt="JennXPenn"></p><p>Forget P. Diddy and "rocking the vote," YouTube stars are the ones encouraging young kids to vote now.</p>
<p>The Daily Dot reports that "<a href="http://www.ourtime.org/">OurTime.org</a>, one of the nation's largest voter empowerment organizations targeted at young voters, partnered with YouTuber&nbsp;<a href="http://www.dailydot.com/tags/jenn-mcallister/">Jenn McAllister</a>, better known as JennXPenn," to <a href="http://www.dailydot.com/entertainment/jennxpenn-voting-video/">create top-10 lists similar to the lists she creates for her popular YouTube channel</a> to help kids understand all of the cool things you can do when you turn 18 and turn into an adult.</p>
<p><span>One of those things, of course, is the ability to vote. (Other milestones included lottery tickets and tattoos.)</span></p>
<p><span><span>“Through using&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.dailydot.com/tags/youtube">YouTube</a><span>&nbsp;I’ve been put in this position where a lot of people look up to me,” McAllister told the Daily Dot. “I have the ability to talk about whatever I want to talk about. I think it’s good for me to talk about issues like this because I think it’s important, and a lot of my viewers are around the same age as me, or a little bit younger, so it’s something that’s going to be coming up soon."</span></span></p>
<p>OurTime.org founder Matthew Segal believes that YouTube celebrities like McAllister are more authentic than mainstream stars. Their millions of viewers trust them.</p>
<p>Fullscreen, a YouTube celebrity management company that manages McAllister, held a convention in Los Angeles in mid-September called INTOUR, which Business Insider attended. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-celebrities-are-important-2014-9">Fullscreen also just sold a stake in itself to Otter Media, a joint venture between AT&amp;T and The Chernin Group, for about $300 million.</a><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/541b023cecad04d955510220-1200-800/455389610.jpg" border="0" alt="INTOUR" style="line-height: 1.5em;"><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Most attendees </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/intour-la-youtube-stars-convention-2014-9">were young teenage girls, many of whom told Business Insider they considered the YouTube talent "normal people" with whom they "could be friends."</a></p>
<p>This gives the YouTube celeb crowd an incredible edge in influencing its millions upon millions of fans and followers.</p>
<p>“Millennials are one of the most socially conscious generations in history, and apathy, to us, is a turnoff,” <a href="http://www.dailydot.com/entertainment/jennxpenn-voting-video/">Segal explained to The Daily Dot. “We also know that YouTubers like Tyler Oakley</a> and Laci Green have galvanized tremendous audiences around issues such as LGBT rights and feminism. Social and political issues drive engagement.”</p>
<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GBZiVMNvNI">Here's JennXPenn's full video encouraging teens to vote:</a><iframe width="853" height="480" frameborder="0" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/5GBZiVMNvNI"></iframe></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ourtime-and-jennxpenn-voting-2014-9#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/16-and-17-year-old-scottish-voters-may-vote-against-independence-2014-9Here's Why 16- And 17-Year-Old Scots Might Say 'No' To Independencehttp://www.businessinsider.com/16-and-17-year-old-scottish-voters-may-vote-against-independence-2014-9
Thu, 18 Sep 2014 16:23:00 -0400Corey Adwar
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/541b34e6ecad043223510222-480-/scottish-teen-referendum.jpg" border="0" alt="scottish teen, referendum" width="480"></p><p>Thursday's referendum on Scottish independence will be the first time in the United Kingdom that 16- and 17-year-olds will vote in a major ballot, following legislation <a href="http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-voting-age-lowered-today-1-2979023">passed by the Scottish Parliament</a> in June 2013.</p>
<p>109,533 of those eligible teens have since registered to vote, <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/16/scottish-referendum-voting-no-carnage-polling-day">The Guardian reported this week</a>.</p>
<p>The gap between supporters and opponents of independence has narrowed considerably in recent months. Earlier this week, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/polls-scottish-independence-no-vote-holds-steady-2014-9">two new polls</a> revealed 52% of respondents would vote "no" compared to 48% who would vote "yes."</p>
<p>Comprising around 3% of the electorate, Scotland's 16-and 17-year-olds won't make a huge difference even if 100% of them voted, but a Scottish study suggests the youngest voting cohort is likeliest to tip the scales toward the "no" side. That's because contrary to a popular belief, they are actually slightly more likely to vote against independence than adults, according to a 2013 <a href="http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/205540/131129_will-16-and-17-years-olds-make-a-difference.pdf">report</a> by University of Edinburgh social policy professor Jan Eichhorn for the nonprofit social research organization <a href="http://www.scotcen.org.uk/">ScotCen</a>.</p>
<p>In a survey conducted from April 2013 to May 2013 of teens between the ages of 14 and 17, who would all be old enough to vote by today's referendum, just 21% said they would vote "yes" in response to the referendum question, "Should Scotland be an independent country?" 60% said they would vote "no," and 19% said they were undecided.</p>
<p>Eichhorn compared the results of his survey with several other polls of Scottish adult voters conducted in the same period. He found there was almost always a narrower gap between "yes" and "no" votes among adults, with typically 30% or more of those voters indicating they would vote "yes."</p>
<p>The study also found a possible reason for the distinction; 14- to 17-year-olds were significantly less likely to feel a strong sense of Scottish identity than older voters. For instance, they were far less likely to identify themselves as "Scottish not British" (12%) compared to 18- to 24-year-olds (35%) and all voters over 18 (23%). They were most likely to consider themselves "equally Scottish and British" (45%) compared to their 18- to 24-year-old counterparts (22%) and all Scots over 18 (30%).</p>
<p>"Apparently one reason why young people are less likely to support independence is because they are more inclined to feel a dual sense of identity," Eichhorn wrote, "a product perhaps of being the first generation to have grown up in a digitized world in which interpersonal communication is no longer bound by geography."</p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/photos-from-the-scottish-independence-referendum-2014-9" >The Most Memorable Photos From The Scottish Independence Referendum </a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/16-and-17-year-old-scottish-voters-may-vote-against-independence-2014-9#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/kurdish-leader-vote-for-independence-soon-2014-7Kurdish Leader: We Will Vote For Independence Soonhttp://www.businessinsider.com/kurdish-leader-vote-for-independence-soon-2014-7
Tue, 01 Jul 2014 08:24:00 -0400
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/53b2aab169beddb85539a7da-480-/ap47405066824.jpg" border="0" alt="kurds, kurdish flag" width="480" /></p><p>Iraq's Kurds will hold an independence referendum within months, their leader Massud Barzani said on Tuesday, as the region reels under a brutal offensive by Sunni jihadists who have declared an Islamic caliphate.</p>
<p>Barzani said the time was right for a vote as Iraq was already effectively partitioned following the lightning gains by the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).</p>
<p>"We will hold a referendum in Kurdistan and we will respect and be bound by the decision of our people and hope that others will do likewise," he told the BBC.</p>
<p>Asked whether the vote would take place soon, Barzani added: "I can't fix a date right now but definitely it's a question of months. But of course it must be decided by parliament."</p>
<p>The region would need to establish an independent electoral authority before a vote could take place, Barzani noted.</p>
<p>More than 2,000 people have died so far in the push by IS, which Iraq's security forces have struggled to combat.</p>
<p>Regional power Turkey has already said it would be opposed to independence for Iraq's Kurds.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div class="nc_footer">
<p>Copyright (2014) AFP. All rights reserved.</p>
</div>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="https://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT0zNWM4NGZmZjBlY2NkY2RhZmMwNDg4YjlkNTNkM2M4MyZub25jZT1iN2JkMjljZC1iOWQ2LTQ3NTAtYTY3Zi1iOTk0Yjk4NzZiZjkmcHVibGlzaGVyPTczMGViODZhYjU5ZjBkNDE5MjZhYzY1YjAxZjgzZTJm" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><strong>SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-koplow-turkey-should-push-for-iraqi-kurdistan-2014-6" >Why Turkey Might Actually Support An Independent Kurdistan </a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/kurdish-leader-vote-for-independence-soon-2014-7#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5Depressing Study Reveals Who Really Controls Americahttp://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5
Fri, 16 May 2014 17:37:00 -0400Business Insider
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/536aa732ecad04b435dc6700-1200-858/ap727255658291.jpg" border="0" alt="Capitol Hill in Washington" />Government of the people, by the people and for the people was Abraham Lincoln's famous mantra. But which people? </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Do governments respond to the concerns of the average voter or do they merely cater to a privileged elite?</span></p>
<p>On the face of things, governments have catered largely to the common man over the past few years, at least in the realm of finance.</p>
<p>Europe is limiting bankers' bonuses and discussing a financial-transactions tax that will apply in 11 EU members.</p>
<p>In America, Congress passed the blizzard of regulations collectively known as the Dodd-Frank act, which has prompted a lot of grumbling on Wall Street (even though financial-industry lobbyists were heavily involved in the process).</p>
<p>Most importantly, regulators throughout the rich world have agreed to higher capital ratios for banks, which will not only make them safer but should (in the long run) limit some of the pay packages that have caused such disquiet.</p>
<p>Yet a new paper* from Martin Gilens of Princeton University and Benjamin Page of Northwestern University suggests such moments are rare, in America at least. They use statistical analysis to work out who most influences policy, and the results are depressing for those who believe in democracy.</p>
<p>The authors conclude that "Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions: they have little or no independent influence on policy at all."</p>
<p>Those with the biggest influence are the economic elites (defined as those in the top 10% by earning power) and interest groups representing business. By contrast, "mass-based" interest groups such as trade unions have little or no impact.</p>
<p>The authors arrived at this stark conclusion by examining 1,779 surveys of American opinion on policy issues taken between 1981 and 2002. In each case, the surveys had established the income level of respondents. For the views of special-interest groups, the authors used lobbies ranked as powerful in Fortune magazine's "Power 25" lists plus a further ten industries that spent heavily on lobbying.</p>
<p>In cases where a proposed policy change had low support among the wealthy (one in five in favour), the policy was adopted about 18% of the time. When four in five wealthy people supported a plan, the prospects for adoption rose to 45%.</p>
<p>In contrast, it did not matter whether a policy change was backed by the vast majority, or only a tiny minority, of those on average incomes; its chances of adoption were around 30% either way. Business-interest groups, however, were much more successful in getting their way (a similar success rate to the wealthy).</p>
<p>The research does not necessarily show that the average voter is losing out; as it happens, the views of the wealthy and those on average earnings are closely linked (although there is a negative correlation between the views of citizens and business-interest groups).</p>
<p>But the analysis backs up earlier work by Larry Bartels of Princeton, author of a book called "Unequal Democracy", and the general thesis of the late political scientist, Mancur Olson, that government can be in hock to special interests.</p>
<p>This may be truer in America than elsewhere since its campaign-finance laws are so liberal: $6 billion was spent on the 2012 elections. This system forces candidates to spend much of their time raising money from the wealthy and from business. Even if no direct quid pro quos are involved, candidates may simply absorb the views of the better-off by osmosis.</p>
<p>The danger is of a vicious cycle in which politicians adopt policies that favour the better-off; this gives the wealthy more money with which to lobby politicians, which leads to more favourable legislation and so on. The surge in inequality over the last 30 years could perhaps be attributed, in part, to this process.</p>
<p>The flurry of new regulations notwithstanding, many people believe that Wall Street has done rather better than Main Street out of the crisis, even though it was the source of the problem. The Tea Party movement was at first fuelled by resentment of the bank bail-outs of 2008. In Europe, the rise of populist parties may owe something to the same factor.</p>
<p>The risk in the long run is that the excessive influence of the better-off may prompt an overreaction. If resentment grows strong enough to propel populists to power, they may push through policies that are bad not just for the financial sector, but for the economy as a whole.</p>
<p>Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="https://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT1lYTUxYjZhZDAxN2UzZDY0YWY1YjA2M2I3YTY1ZmYwNyZub25jZT1mODI0NDNiOS05ZDc4LTRmMjQtODk2My05Yjc2OWU4N2IxZDAmcHVibGlzaGVyPTczMGViODZhYjU5ZjBkNDE5MjZhYzY1YjAxZjgzZTJm" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5Why The Views Of Businesses And The Rich Count For More In Americahttp://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5
Fri, 16 May 2014 17:08:00 -0400
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/536aa732ecad04b435dc6700-1200-858/ap727255658291.jpg" border="0" alt="Capitol Hill in Washington" />Government of the people, by the people and for the people was Abraham Lincoln's famous mantra. But which people? </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Do governments respond to the concerns of the average voter or do they merely cater to a privileged elite?</span></p>
<p>On the face of things, governments have catered largely to the common man over the past few years, at least in the realm of finance.</p>
<p>Europe is limiting bankers' bonuses and discussing a financial-transactions tax that will apply in 11 EU members.</p>
<p>In America, Congress passed the blizzard of regulations collectively known as the Dodd-Frank act, which has prompted a lot of grumbling on Wall Street (even though financial-industry lobbyists were heavily involved in the process).</p>
<p>Most importantly, regulators throughout the rich world have agreed to higher capital ratios for banks, which will not only make them safer but should (in the long run) limit some of the pay packages that have caused such disquiet.</p>
<p>Yet a new paper* from Martin Gilens of Princeton University and Benjamin Page of Northwestern University suggests such moments are rare, in America at least. They use statistical analysis to work out who most influences policy, and the results are depressing for those who believe in democracy.</p>
<p>The authors conclude that "Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions: they have little or no independent influence on policy at all."</p>
<p>Those with the biggest influence are the economic elites (defined as those in the top 10% by earning power) and interest groups representing business. By contrast, "mass-based" interest groups such as trade unions have little or no impact.</p>
<p>The authors arrived at this stark conclusion by examining 1,779 surveys of American opinion on policy issues taken between 1981 and 2002. In each case, the surveys had established the income level of respondents. For the views of special-interest groups, the authors used lobbies ranked as powerful in Fortune magazine's "Power 25" lists plus a further ten industries that spent heavily on lobbying.</p>
<p>In cases where a proposed policy change had low support among the wealthy (one in five in favour), the policy was adopted about 18% of the time. When four in five wealthy people supported a plan, the prospects for adoption rose to 45%.</p>
<p>In contrast, it did not matter whether a policy change was backed by the vast majority, or only a tiny minority, of those on average incomes; its chances of adoption were around 30% either way. Business-interest groups, however, were much more successful in getting their way (a similar success rate to the wealthy).</p>
<p>The research does not necessarily show that the average voter is losing out; as it happens, the views of the wealthy and those on average earnings are closely linked (although there is a negative correlation between the views of citizens and business-interest groups).</p>
<p>But the analysis backs up earlier work by Larry Bartels of Princeton, author of a book called "Unequal Democracy", and the general thesis of the late political scientist, Mancur Olson, that government can be in hock to special interests.</p>
<p>This may be truer in America than elsewhere since its campaign-finance laws are so liberal: $6 billion was spent on the 2012 elections. This system forces candidates to spend much of their time raising money from the wealthy and from business. Even if no direct quid pro quos are involved, candidates may simply absorb the views of the better-off by osmosis.</p>
<p>The danger is of a vicious cycle in which politicians adopt policies that favour the better-off; this gives the wealthy more money with which to lobby politicians, which leads to more favourable legislation and so on. The surge in inequality over the last 30 years could perhaps be attributed, in part, to this process.</p>
<p>The flurry of new regulations notwithstanding, many people believe that Wall Street has done rather better than Main Street out of the crisis, even though it was the source of the problem. The Tea Party movement was at first fuelled by resentment of the bank bail-outs of 2008. In Europe, the rise of populist parties may owe something to the same factor.</p>
<p>The risk in the long run is that the excessive influence of the better-off may prompt an overreaction. If resentment grows strong enough to propel populists to power, they may push through policies that are bad not just for the financial sector, but for the economy as a whole.</p>
<p>Economist.com/blogs/buttonwood</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist</p>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="https://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT1lYTUxYjZhZDAxN2UzZDY0YWY1YjA2M2I3YTY1ZmYwNyZub25jZT1mODI0NDNiOS05ZDc4LTRmMjQtODk2My05Yjc2OWU4N2IxZDAmcHVibGlzaGVyPTczMGViODZhYjU5ZjBkNDE5MjZhYzY1YjAxZjgzZTJm" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/buttonwood-one-dollar-one-vote-2014-5#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/capital-punishment-in-america-dismantling-the-machinery-of-death-2014-4How America — Can And Will — Abolish The Death Penaltyhttp://www.businessinsider.com/capital-punishment-in-america-dismantling-the-machinery-of-death-2014-4
Fri, 25 Apr 2014 16:50:00 -0400The Economist
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/535aca2beab8ea0209505e23-480-/ap94010102520.jpg" border="0" alt="electric chair" width="480" /></p><p>New Hampshire has just failed to abolish the death penalty&mdash;by one vote.</p>
<p>Given that the Granite State has not actually executed anyone since 1939, you might think this doesn&rsquo;t matter much.</p>
<p>But, obviously, it matters to the one man on death row in New Hampshire, a cop-killer called Michael Addison. It matters, also, to the broader campaign to scrap capital punishment in America. And despite the setback in New Hampshire, the abolitionists are slowly winning.</p>
<p>America is unusual among rich countries in that it still executes people. It does so because its politicians are highly responsive to voters, who mostly favour the death penalty. However, that majority is shrinking, from 80% in 1994 to 60% last year.</p>
<p>Young Americans are less likely to support it than their elders. Non-whites, who will one day be a majority, are solidly opposed. Six states have abolished it since 2007, bringing the total to 18 out of 50. The number of executions each year has fallen from a peak of 98 in 1999 to 39 last year (see "Capital punishment: The slow death of the death penalty").</p>
<p>Many people regret this. Some feel that death is the only fitting punishment for murderers: that it satisfies society&rsquo;s need for retribution. Some find a religious justification, such as the line in Exodus that calls for: "life for life, eye for eye, tooth for tooth".</p>
<p>Such appeals to emotion or faith are hard to answer, although the Bible also has passages about not casting the first stone, and many conservative evangelicals have ended up in the odd position of prizing life when it comes to abortion, but not when it comes to prisoners (the Catholic church is pro-life on both counts). However, in a secular democracy a law of such gravity must have some compelling rational justification, which the death penalty does not.</p>
<p>Its advocates insist that it deters murderers, thereby saving lives. If this were true, it would be a powerful argument, but there is scant evidence that it is. The murder rate is far higher in America than in the European Union, which has no death penalty. It is also higher in American states that carry out executions than in states that do not.</p>
<p>Granted, some studies have found that, if you control for other factors that also influence crime rates, you can make the case that each execution prevents three murders, or five, or even 18. But such studies are based on thin data and questionable assumptions. There were nearly 15,000 murders in America in 2012. The chance of any individual killer being executed is thus microscopic--and distant, since the appeals process can grind on for decades.</p>
<p>Against the death penalty&rsquo;s uncertain benefits must be set its certain defects. Juries, being human, are fallible. If they jail an innocent man he can be freed and compensated, but he cannot be brought back to life.</p>
<p>Since the Supreme Court lifted its suspension of the death penalty in 1976, there are no proven cases where America has executed an innocent. But there are at least ten that look horribly like it. Cameron Todd Willingham, for example, was put to death for starting a deadly fire, although experts blamed faulty wiring (see "Cameron Todd Willingham: Irrevocable").</p>
<h3>Vengeance is mine, says the Lord</h3>
<p>To avoid miscarriages of justice, America has erected elaborate safeguards. Capital cases are subject to multiple appeals; teams of lawyers haggle over them for years. An unintended consequence of this is that executing a murderer is now perhaps three times more expensive than locking him up for life.</p>
<p>The money spent on the machinery of death would probably do more to improve public safety if it were spent on better policing, to catch the ones who currently get away. Put simply, the death penalty looks like a colossal waste of taxpayers&rsquo; money, which conservative politicians would normally denounce.</p>
<p>Of late, abolitionists have put a lot of effort into lawsuits to make it harder for states to get hold of the drugs used in lethal injections. This is more likely to delay executions than to end them. A more democratic approach would be to persuade voters that capital punishment is not just barbaric but also costly, ineffective and prey to human error, and that they should therefore back politicians who oppose it.</p>
<p>That is how New Mexico, Oregon, Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland, Colorado and Washington stopped or suspended it. New Hampshire will try again. State by state, abolitionists will prevail. America is a nation founded on the principle that governments should not be trusted with too much power; that should include the power to strap people to a gurney and poison them.</p>
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<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="http://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT03Nzc2OWZiOWYxNTFkNjE3YmUyOWQ0M2QyNmJlODUyMiZub25jZT1jM2QyM2NiZS02Y2RlLTQ4MzItYTAxMy04NTdlOGEzODUxMGYmcHVibGlzaGVyPThjMDBmYmVlNjFkNWJjZjBjNjA5MmQ4YjkyZWJiY2Ex" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/capital-punishment-in-america-dismantling-the-machinery-of-death-2014-4#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/r-conservative-koch-backed-group-uses-soft-touch-in-recruiting-us-hispanics-2014-22Koch-Backed Group Using Social Programs To Recruit Hispanics To Conservative Causehttp://www.businessinsider.com/r-conservative-koch-backed-group-uses-soft-touch-in-recruiting-us-hispanics-2014-22
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 06:02:00 -0400Andy Sullivan
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5355fd5a5afbd3e7488b4567-450-300/conservative-koch-backed-group-uses-soft-touch-in-recruiting-us-hispanics.jpg" border="0" alt="David Koch, executive vice president of Koch Industries, attends the Economic Club of New York luncheon in New York, December 9, 2013. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton" /></p><p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) - The conservative advocacy groups backed by the billionaire brothers Charles and David Koch are known mostly for spending millions of dollars to pelt Democratic candidates with negative television ads.</span></p>
<p>But this year, one Koch-backed group is using a softer touch to try to win over part of the nation's booming Hispanic population, which has overwhelmingly backed Democrats in recent elections. The group, known as The Libre Initiative, is sponsoring English classes, driver's license workshops and other social programs to try to build relationships with Hispanic voters in cities from Arizona to Florida - even as the group targets Democratic lawmakers with hard-edged TV ads.</p>
<p>Taking a cue from liberal groups that have been active in Hispanic neighborhoods for decades, Libre says it aims to use these events to build support for small-government ideas in communities that typically support big-government ideals.</p>
<p>"If they trust us, they may seek our opinion on something else," said Michael Barrera, a former Bush administration official who now works for Libre, which says it has built a mailing list of 90,000 people during the past three years.</p>
<p>Libre's task is complicated by Republican lawmakers' reluctance to act on a proposed overhaul of the United States' immigration laws and the harsh rhetoric used by some Republicans that many Americans have seen as anti-Hispanic or anti-immigrant, pollsters say.</p>
<p>And even as Libre launches an ad campaign that paints President Barack Obama's Affordable Care Act as an expensive failure, Obamacare remains more popular among Hispanics than it is in the overall population.</p>
<p>Democrats who are struggling to counter waves of Koch-financed attack ads ahead of the November 4 congressional elections say Libre is a front group for wealthy donors who care little about the needs of Hispanics. As a group, Hispanics are less affluent and less educated than the overall U.S. population.</p>
<p>At a recent Hispanic business fair in Orlando, Libre set up panel discussions on family-owned businesses and the shortcomings of Obamacare. Neither event drew much of an audience, but by the end of the day Libre had added 150 names to its mailing list.</p>
<p>Several of those who signed up said they were drawn in by the chance to win a tablet computer that was raffled off by Libre, rather than any enthusiasm for conservative ideas. None said they were aware of Libre's conservative agenda.</p>
<p>"That's a politics group? I didn't know that. I thought they work in computers," said retiree Rosa Vacaliuc, a self-described liberal Democrat.</p>
<p>HELP FOR REPUBLICANS?</p>
<p>Libre is officially nonpartisan, but its policies largely line up with the Republican agenda. Libre's ads are focused on races in the 435-seat U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans are likely to keep their majority in the elections.</p>
<p>Other Koch-backed groups are focused more on the 100-seat Senate, where Republicans need a net gain of six seats to take control of the chamber from Democrats.</p>
<p>Republicans could use help in appealing to Hispanics, a voting bloc that accounted for a record 1 in 10 voters in 2012 and that could double in size within a generation.</p>
<p>Since Republican Mitt Romney won only 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in the presidential race two years ago, the party has stepped up efforts to appeal to minority voters.</p>
<p>But many Republican lawmakers' refusal to consider legal status for the nation's 11 million undocumented immigrants has undercut that effort, pollsters say.</p>
<p>Libre supports an immigration overhaul, and the group may run ads this summer targeting some Republicans who oppose it. But immigration hasn't been a big part of its message lately.</p>
<p>In recent months, Libre has spent $1.4 million on ads taking four House Democrats to task for supporting Obamacare. The targeted lawmakers, in Arizona, Florida and Texas, face competitive elections in districts that are largely Hispanic.</p>
<p>DEEP POCKETS</p>
<p>Groups backed by the Koch brothers and their allies spent more than $400 million in the 2012 election to help Republicans. Libre's own budget has more than doubled from the $2.5 million it reported raising in 2011 and 2012, officials say.</p>
<p>The Arizona Democratic Party has blasted Libre as a "fake Latino advocacy organization," and other party officials say the group is doing the bidding of its wealthy donors who are paying for a blitz of ads against Democrats in the midterm elections.</p>
<p>"I just reject it when I see people who don't legitimately represent Latino people claim to be the voice for all of us," said Richard Elias, a Democratic elected official in Pima County, Arizona who supports Obamacare.</p>
<p>Daniel Garza, Libre's executive director, said the group's 35-member staff is overwhelmingly Hispanic and does not take orders from donors.</p>
<p>"The same groups criticize conservatives when they don't reach out to the Hispanic community, but then they criticize us when we do outreach to the Hispanic community," he said. "You can't have it both ways."</p>
<p>Libre's small-government message could appeal to 35 percent of the Hispanic population at most, said Gary Segura of Latino Decisions, a nonpartisan polling firm.</p>
<p>It could make headway with some Hispanic voters by emphasizing small-business concerns and charter schools, two areas in which many Hispanics are attracted to conservative principles, Segura said. Charter schools receive public funding but operate independently of local school systems, allowing them to use a range of teaching methods.</p>
<p>ARGUING AGAINST SOCIAL PROGRAMS</p>
<p>Libre's Garza acknowledged that until recently, conservatives had not done much to woo Hispanics.</p>
<p>"I don't see it as a rejection of free-market principles. It's just an absence of them," he said at the group's new Arlington, Virginia, headquarters.</p>
<p>Garza, 46, has been a big part of the group's pitch.</p>
<p>The son of a migrant farm worker, Garza entered politics as a city council member in Toppenish, Washington. He volunteered on George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign and landed a job in the Interior Department, eventually working his way up to the White House. He later hosted a political show on Univision, the Spanish-language TV network.</p>
<p>Garza's life story squares with Libre's argument that safety-net social programs can hurt the Hispanic community by sapping individual initiative. Libre opposes an increase in the minimum wage, for example, and opposes the expansion of the Medicaid health program for the poor under Obamacare.</p>
<p>Garza said the goal of the group's Obamacare TV ads is to get vulnerable lawmakers to back away from a law that he says hurts Hispanics.</p>
<p>The ads have drawn a fierce response from Democrats, who say Libre's real goal is to drive down turnout in elections and discourage the 1 in 3 Hispanics who were uninsured before the law went into effect from signing up for health coverage.</p>
<p>"They're trying to dampen enthusiasm overall," said Rodd McCloud, campaign manager for Arizona Rep. Ron Barber, one of the four House Democrats lawmakers targeted by Libre's ads.</p>
<p>Libre has spent $1.4 million on the ads so far, but the full extent of its involvement in this year's congressional elections will not come to light until May 2016.</p>
<p>That is because Libre is a "social welfare" organization under section 501</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-conservative-koch-backed-group-uses-soft-touch-in-recruiting-us-hispanics-2014-22#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/florida-democrats-are-putting-medical-marijuana-on-this-years-ballot-to-boost-voter-turnout-2014-4Florida Democrats Are Putting Medical Marijuana On This Year's Ballot To Boost Voter Turnouthttp://www.businessinsider.com/florida-democrats-are-putting-medical-marijuana-on-this-years-ballot-to-boost-voter-turnout-2014-4
Mon, 14 Apr 2014 07:04:00 -0400Michael J. Mishak
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/53177b08ecad04766739bd86-1200-924/ap100111130959.jpg" border="0" alt="Marijuana" /></p><p>MIAMI (AP) &mdash; Democrats in the nation's largest swing-state see the question of whether to legalize medical marijuana as a rare source of hope and high voter turnout in this year's midterm elections.</p>
<p>Party operatives are pushing a constitutional amendment that would make Florida the first state in the South to legalize some pot use. Polls show the measure has widespread public support, and it's particularly popular among young voters &mdash; a critical part of the Democratic coalition with historically weak turnout in non-presidential election years.</p>
<p>"I wish that it didn't take medical marijuana on the ballot to motivate our young voters to go and vote because there's far too much at stake for them and their children," said Ana Cruz, former executive director of the Florida Democratic Party. "But listen, we'll take it any way we can get it."</p>
<p>At stake is the Florida governor's office, as well as a handful of competitive House seats. But the nation's political world will be watching Florida's turnout in November for clues to whether pot on the ballot could draw young people to the polls.</p>
<p>In 2012, both Washington and Colorado saw spikes in youth turnout when marijuana initiatives were on the ballot. This year, Florida could be a critical test case for whether those increases were an anomaly or the start of a trend in advance of the presidential election in 2016, when activists plan to launch legalization campaigns in at least six states, including battleground Nevada.</p>
<p>"It's a smart move on the Democrats' part," said David Flaherty, a Colorado-based GOP pollster. "It's going to help them, no doubt about it."</p>
<p>The marijuana initiative may be one bright spot for Democrats in an election year that could be grim for the party. President Barack Obama remains unpopular, and Republicans are trying to make the elections a referendum on his health care law. Gov. Rick Scott is making the health care overhaul a central issue in the governor's race and outside conservative groups, such as Americans for Prosperity, are funding a barrage of negative ads against Democrats in a handful of swing-voting House districts.</p>
<p>"I would rather have it on the ballot than not," said Steve Schale, a Democratic consultant who managed Obama's Florida campaign in 2008. "It could have a marginal impact, and a marginal impact in Florida could be the difference between winning and losing."</p>
<p>A Republican victory in a special House election last month in Florida underscored the Democrats' turnout problem. The St. Petersburg-area district has 2.4 percent more registered Republicans than Democrats, but GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by 8 percentage points among those who cast ballots.</p>
<p>While far from a cure-all, Democrats say the medical pot measure could help counter Republican energy by motivating young and independent voters. According to a national survey sponsored by George Washington University last month, nearly 40 percent of likely voters said they would be "much more likely" to vote if a legalization measure was on the ballot, with another 30 percent saying they would be "somewhat" more likely to vote.</p>
<p>Organizers of the medical marijuana effort plan to raise and spend $10 million on their campaign, with much of the money devoted to a turnout operation aimed at registering voters to cast absentee ballots.</p>
<p>"We want to be able to have our stereotypical, lazy pothead voters to be able to vote from their couch," said Ben Pollara, a Democratic fundraiser and campaign manager for the United for Care group, which also plans to get voters to the polls on Election Day.</p>
<p>Republicans argue that Democrats do not have a clear-cut advantage on medical pot, with public polls showing an overwhelming majority of GOP voters in Florida supporting it. They also say it's unlikely to excite young voters in the way that legalization campaigns did in Colorado and Washington, where pot was sanctioned for recreational use along the lines of alcohol, or become part of a divisive culture war that could drive turnout.</p>
<p>___</p>
<p>Associated Press news researcher Judy Ausuebel contributed to this report.</p>
<p>___</p>
<p>Follow Michael J. Mishak on Twitter: https://twitter.com/mjmishak</p>
<div class="nc_footer">
<p>Copyright (2014) Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p>
</div>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="http://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT1iZTYyZmI3NmY4OTUxMmQ0ZmU4YmYzMGU1NDU1OWUwZiZub25jZT1hNDY1ODYwNC05NGZjLTRhYmYtODU4ZS0yZTY1OTdiZTAxMzcmcHVibGlzaGVyPTczMGViODZhYjU5ZjBkNDE5MjZhYzY1YjAxZjgzZTJm" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/florida-democrats-are-putting-medical-marijuana-on-this-years-ballot-to-boost-voter-turnout-2014-4#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-increased-reliance-on-young-voters-2014-3Why Democrats' Reliance On Young Voters Might Mean They're Doomed In 2014 http://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-increased-reliance-on-young-voters-2014-3
Tue, 01 Apr 2014 10:21:00 -0400Geoffrey Skelley
<p class="p1"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5339c2d0eab8ea6c7ff6ac95-1200-858/ap101031035211.jpg" border="0" alt="obama biden rally" /></p><p>Barring significant changes in group voting habits, many commentators have argued that &ldquo;The Coalition of the Ascendant&rdquo; is positioned to give Democrats a notable edge in elections in the near future.</p>
<p class="p1">There may be some truth to that supposition: The country is clearly getting more diverse, and nonwhite voters tend to vote strongly Democratic.</p>
<p class="p1">A key cog in this coalition has been young voters &mdash; often called Millennials &mdash; who are more diverse than their elders. Exit poll data in 2012 suggested that young people were vital in securing President Barack Obama&rsquo;s second term in the White House.</p>
<p class="p1">He garnered 60% of the 18-to-29 vote (after winning 66% of it in <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1"><span class="s1">2008</span></a>), by far the highest percentage Obama won among any age group. Estimating from exit poll data, all else equal, it&rsquo;s possible that Obama would have narrowly lost the popular vote (and perhaps the Electoral College vote, too) had he won the same percentage among 18-to-29 year olds as he did among 30-to-44 year olds (52%).</p>
<p class="p1">Continued strong support for Democratic presidential candidates in the future among younger voters could spell trouble for the GOP as generational replacement occurs (yes, that&rsquo;s a euphemism).</p>
<p class="p1">However, one aspect of this trend is anything but rosy for Democrats: Since the first national exit poll was taken for a midterm election in 1978, only once (in that first survey) has the 18-to-29 age group made up a larger portion of a midterm electorate than voters who were 60 or older.</p>
<p class="p1">And not only have young people almost always been the smallest part of midterm electorates in this period, their participation has usually been much smaller compared to presidential years. With Democrats more reliant on young voters to win elections, drop-off among that group could make it harder for Democrats to find success in midterm cycles.</p>
<p class="p1">Why is increased reliance on younger voters a potentially fraught strategy? First, consider recent voting habits by age group. As shown below in Figure 1, in the Age of Obama, the older the voter, the more likely that voter is to vote Republican; the younger the voter, the more likely that voter is to vote Democratic.</p>
<p class="p1"><strong>Figure 1: Voting by age group, 2012 national exit poll</strong></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><img src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/5339be666da8113b4915d9a0-560-381/gvs2014032701-figure1.png" border="0" alt="GVS2014032701 figure1" width="800" />&nbsp;<br /></strong></p>
<p class="p1">This age pattern continued in <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#val=USH00p1"><span class="s1">2010</span></a>, when in House races Republicans won 59% of voters 65 or older, 53% of 45-to-64 year olds, 50% of 30-to-44 year olds and just 42% of those under 30. Looking back, the positive correlation streak between increased age and increased Republican voting started in the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006/pages/results/states/US/H/00/epolls.0.html"><span class="s1">2006</span></a> midterm cycle, at least when the electorate is grouped into four age cohorts.</p>
<p class="p1">Prior to 2006, this trend did not necessarily hold true. For instance, in the <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html"><span class="s1">2004</span></a> presidential election, more 45-to-59 year olds supported Democrat John Kerry than did 30-to-44 year olds. In fact, looking back in time, there has been some variation in the order of age group-level support for the two major parties in both presidential and congressional elections.</p>
<p class="p1">As shown in Figures 2 and 3 below, while the youngest voters have typically been more Democratic in their leanings, they have not been the most Democratic age group in every election since 1972.</p>
<p class="p1"><strong>Figures 2 and 3: Democratic two-party vote by age group in presidential and congressional elections, 1972-2010 exit polls</strong></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><img src="http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/5339be9cecad049279c92339-598-465/gvs2014032701-figure2.png" border="0" alt="GVS2014032701 figure2" width="800" />&nbsp;<br /></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><img src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5339beba6da811824a15d9a0-598-469/gvs2014032701-figure3.png" border="0" alt="GVS2014032701 figure3" width="800" />&nbsp;<br /></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><em>Note: </em></strong><em>Because published 2012 exit poll data grouped ages 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65 or older, complete 2012 data is unavailable for the same age groupings as presented above. The raw data from the 2012 exit poll hasn&rsquo;t yet been made available for researchers to potentially overcome this issue.</em></p>
<p class="p1">Although the pattern hasn&rsquo;t always held true that older voters will vote more Republican, it doesn&rsquo;t appear to be a trend that&rsquo;s going away in the near future.</p>
<p class="p1">The country is increasingly polarized, partially because of the large gap in policy and political preferences between white and nonwhite voters. Nonwhite voters overwhelmingly support Democrats and most of their policy positions &mdash; Obama won over 80% of the nonwhite vote in 2012 &mdash; while white voters tend to back Republicans and more of their policy positions &mdash; Romney won 59% of the white vote in 2012.</p>
<p class="p1">According to the most recent census estimates, 75% of those 50 or older in the United States are non-Hispanic whites, while just 57% under the age of 50 are. Members of the older generations are now almost all at least 50 years old, and because the Silent Generation (born from 1928 to 1945) and the Baby Boomers (born from 1946 to 1964) are predominantly white, they are more likely to vote Republican in our present political climate.</p>
<p class="p1">Meanwhile, Generation X (born from 1965 to 1980) and particularly the Millennials (born from 1981 on) are far more diverse in their makeup, leaving them more likely to vote Democratic. (The beginning and end dates of some generational groups are <a href="http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/03/here-is-when-each-generation-begins-and-ends-according-to-facts/359589/"><span class="s1">up for debate</span></a>, but the parameters used here are based on those found in <span class="s2"><em><a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/the-next-america-book/">The Next America</a>&nbsp;</em></span>by Paul Taylor and the Pew Research Center, a highly recommended read.)</p>
<p class="p1">For the time being, this political generation gap spells trouble for Democrats in midterm elections. Look at Tables 1 and 2 below: On average, the youngest cohort of voters made up just over one-fifth of presidential electorates from 1972 to 2008, but only about 14% of midterm electorates. Younger voters have consistently shown up in smaller numbers in midterm cycles.</p>
<p class="p1">Not once have 18-29s made up a larger portion of the electorate in a midterm election than they did in the prior or subsequent presidential election since midterm exit polling began in 1978.</p>
<p class="p2"><strong>Tables 1 and 2: Age composition of electorate in presidential and midterm elections, 1972-2010 exit polls</strong></p>
<p class="p2"><strong><img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5339bf17eab8ea0575f6ac95-572-306/gvs2014032701-tables1and2.png" border="0" alt="GVS2014032701 tables1and2" width="800" />&nbsp;<br /></strong></p>
<p class="p1"><strong><em>Note: </em></strong><em>Because published 2012 exit poll data grouped ages 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65 or older, complete 2012 data is unavailable for the same age groupings as presented above. The raw data from the 2012 exit poll hasn&rsquo;t yet been made available for researchers to potentially overcome this issue.</em></p>
<p class="p1">Given the time period under examination, it&rsquo;s unsurprising that younger voters have been turning out in smaller numbers than older voters, especially in recent years. The population is getting older &mdash; the nation&rsquo;s median age rose from 28.1 in 1970 to 32.9 in 1990 to 37.2 in 2010 &mdash; so, naturally, older voters make up a greater share of the electorate.</p>
<p class="p1">Still, sharply lower young voter participation in midterm elections is surely a trend that predates national exit polls. Older people are simply more likely to vote in general due to a number of lifestyle factors, such as buying a house, starting a family and becoming settled in a community.</p>
<p class="p1">Even when the 18-to-29 cohort made up a plurality (30.4%) of the country&rsquo;s adult population in 1980 (the last time that was true as the Baby Boomers got older), the 1982 midterm election saw an eight-point drop in that group&rsquo;s portion of the electorate from the 1980 presidential election, falling from 22.9% to 14.9%.</p>
<p class="p1">Corresponding to the serious drop-off among younger voters is the increased influence of older voters in midterm electorates. While the number of voters drops precipitously from presidential to midterm elections among all age groups, older voters see a smaller drop-off relative to younger ones. Take a look at Figure 4 below, which presents the data in Tables 1 and 2 in a visual format.</p>
<p class="p2"><strong>Figure 4: Age composition of electorate in presidential and midterm elections, 1972-2010 exit polls</strong></p>
<p class="p3">&nbsp;<img src="http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5339bf3fecad04f476c9233b-596-494/gvs2014032701-figure4.png" border="0" alt="GVS2014032701 figure4" width="800" /></p>
<p class="p2"><strong>&nbsp;</strong><strong style="line-height: 1.5em;"><em>Note: </em></strong><em style="line-height: 1.5em;">Because published 2012 exit poll data grouped ages 18-29, 30-44, 45-64 and 65 or older, complete 2012 data is unavailable for the same age groupings as presented above. The raw data from the 2012 exit poll hasn&rsquo;t yet been made available for researchers to potentially overcome this issue.</em></p>
<p class="p1">The glaringly obvious trend in Figure 4 is the inverse relationship between the 18-to-29 and 60+ cohorts. Every presidential election, the size of the 18-to-29 portion of the electorate increases sharply while the 60+ portion of the electorate decreases markedly.</p>
<p class="p1">Every midterm election, the opposite happens because elderly voters are more likely to cast votes in both presidential and midterm years than their younger counterparts. It&rsquo;s also worth noting the movement of the Baby Boomer generation through the different age groups. As a large majority or entirety of the 18-to-29 cohort in the electorates between 1972 through 1984, the Baby Boomers explain to some degree why there was higher participation by younger voters as a proportion of the electorate.</p>
<p class="p1">In the meantime, the older Boomers entered the 30-to-44 age range, causing it to increase as well. That cohort spiked in participation in 1992, when Boomers made up 100% of it. From there, the 45-to-59 group increased in size as the Boomers aged further.</p>
<p class="p1">While one of the two certainties in life &mdash; death (the other being taxes) &mdash; will always to some degree restrict the size of the oldest voting group, improved health care and longer lifespans mean that more elderly voters will be around to make their voices heard in the future. And because of the Baby Boomers, we can expect there to be a lot of elderly voters: 10,000 people will turn 65 every day between now and 2030, according to Taylor&rsquo;s aforementioned <em>The Next America</em>.</p>
<p class="p1">If recent voting trends continue, a majority of these individuals may well vote Republican in upcoming elections. As older people are more likely to vote, these voters will continue to have outsized influence in midterm contests where young voters are less likely to turn out on Election Day, to the potential benefit of Republicans in our present political environment.</p>
<p class="p1">This midterm drop-off among young voters is a serious problem for Democrats. While Obama&rsquo;s reelection in 2012 proved that Democrats can make up ground with strong support from the youngest voting cohort, the party could not turn those supporters out in 2010 and probably won&rsquo;t be able to in 2014 either, given the historical pattern.</p>
<p class="p1">That said, Democrats can obviously still do well in midterm years: For instance, a 2006-style electoral atmosphere, in which a deeply unpopular Republican president dragged his party down in a sixth-year midterm, will almost always work out in Democrats&rsquo; favor, no matter the demographics.</p>
<p class="p1">But in a neutral midterm environment, and particularly a poor one like 2010, Democrats&rsquo; reliance on younger voters could hinder their efforts to win seats in the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, many state legislatures and the vast majority of governorships that are chosen in midterm cycles.</p>
<p class="p1">While get-out-the-vote strategists might think otherwise, the only practical solution to this problem for Democrats may be Father Time: Like all those who have aged before them, as Millennials get older they will become more consistent voters.</p>
<p class="p1">Democrats will just have to hope that they remain as strongly Democratic in their voting habits as they have proven to be over the last few years, somewhat like members of the Greatest Generation (born before 1928), who came of age during the New Deal and remained more reliable Democratic voters than their younger counterparts even into their twilight years.</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-increased-reliance-on-young-voters-2014-3#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/voter-id-laws-disproportionately-hard-on-greatest-generation-2013-11Voter ID Laws Could Take Away The Rights Of America's Greatest Generationhttp://www.businessinsider.com/voter-id-laws-disproportionately-hard-on-greatest-generation-2013-11
Tue, 19 Nov 2013 10:09:51 -0500Kay Nolan
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<p class="sLoc"><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/528b7c186bb3f7271a44484c-800-/rtr3a33g.jpg" border="0" alt="Poll worker Catherine Smith looks over a voter ID at the Cottageville Municipal Complex during the U.S. presidential election." width="800" style="font-size: 15px; color: #000000;" />Genevieve Winslow of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Milwaukee" target="_self" title="Title: Milwaukee" rel="nofollow">Milwaukee</a>&nbsp;is a member of the Greatest Generation. In 1948, at age 20, she married Alex Winslow, who fought in the Battle of the Bulge. Beginning a year later, at 21, she's voted in nearly every election since.</p>
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<p>Now, she worries she might get turned away at the polls in the future.</p>
<p>It is a common concern among older Americans living in states that have enacted photo ID requirements for voting. Passed by Republican state legislatures as a hedge against voter fraud, the laws have been assailed by critics who say they discriminate against the elderly and minorities.</p>
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<p><strong>RECOMMENDED:</strong>&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/One-Minute-Debate-3-Views/2012/1002/3-views-on-whether-US-states-should-require-voter-ID/Yes-States-must-preserve-the-integrity-of-each-vote-especially-in-an-era-of-close-elections">3 views on whether US states should require voter ID</a></p>
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<p>As Wisconsin implements its law, it is opening a window into why a photo ID can be so difficult for the elderly to obtain. But it is also highlighting what some&nbsp;activists are calling a "war against the Greatest Generation" as federal and state budget cuts fall disproportionately on the elderly. Whether it is the government shutdown making it harder to obtain veteran's benefits or cuts to food stamps or state welfare programs, many in the Greatest Generation feel that they are now being left in the cold.</p>
<p>During the latest partial government shutdown, "I don&rsquo;t know that people didn&rsquo;t get their benefits, but does that mean that things did not get processed while the government was shut down? Yes," says David Hobson, executive director of the National Organization of Veterans Advocates. "&nbsp;That does mean that claims did not get processed, so that was being held up."</p>
<p>Yet voter ID laws, which have been adopted in at least 34 states, feel to many seniors like the most direct attack.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The problem Ms. Winslow faces is common among her generation: The name on her birth certificate doesn&rsquo;t match her other identification. Winslow&rsquo;s birth certificate misspelled her last name as Kujansky, when it was actually Kujawski. In addition, the first name on&nbsp;her birth certificate, Genava, was Anglicized to Genevieve in elementary school.</p>
<p>Thousands of elderly voters who lack current driver&rsquo;s licenses have been turned down for state-issued photo IDs for not producing proper birth certificates, says Julie Ebenstein, staff attorney with the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/American+Civil+Liberties+Union" target="_self" title="Title: American Civil Liberties Union" rel="nofollow">American Civil Liberties Union</a>&nbsp;(ACLU), which is fighting against some state&rsquo;s laws. Sometimes, the birth certificate is missing or destroyed.&nbsp; For people born at home instead of a hospital, one might never have been issued. Back then, it wasn&rsquo;t uncommon for birth certificates to leave the first name blank &ndash; making them useless now for photo IDs. And for a generation of children of immigrants, ethnic names caused frequent errors.</p>
<p>Wisconsin's law passed in 2011, and a judge in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Dane+County" target="_self" title="Title: Dane County" rel="nofollow">Dane County</a>&nbsp;(which includes Madison), has already blocked the law. But opponents are pursuing a ban in federal court, worried that the Dane County ruling could be overturned.</p>
<p>Ray Ciszewski, who volunteers at a church to help people obtain or amend their birth certificates, testified at the federal trial against the state's voter ID law in Milwaukee of a &ldquo;Catch-22&rdquo;: &ldquo;If you don't have the ID, you can't get a birth certificate. If you don't have a birth certificate, you don't get the ID.&rdquo;</p>
<p>&ldquo;The older a person is, the more difficult it is to dig up acceptable records,&rdquo; said Mr. Ciszewski. &ldquo;Sometimes, it comes down to not being able to get an amended birth certificate and the person has to go to court for a formal name change, which can cost hundreds of dollars.&rdquo;</p>
<p>In&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Pennsylvania" target="_self" title="Title: Pennsylvania" rel="nofollow">Pennsylvania</a>, which has a voter ID law as well as one of the highest percentages of elderly residents in the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/United+States" target="_self" title="Title: United States" rel="nofollow">United States</a>, such complaints led the state to dispense with the need for birth certificates to obtain non-driver photo IDs, said Ron Ruman, press secretary for the Department of State. But challenges to voter ID continue, and a July trial featured residents in their 80s and 90s, who spoke of the physical hardship of traveling long distances to driver&rsquo;s license centers and standing for hours in line, said Witold Walczak, an attorney for the Pennsylvania ACLU, representing plaintiffs in the case.&nbsp;</p>
<p>States that are cutting back on early voting or mail-in ballots create similar hurdles for seniors who lack transportation to the polls or who can&rsquo;t tolerate standing for long, said the ACLU's Ms. Ebenstein.</p>
<p>Mr. Ruman said Pennsylvania accepts photo IDs from licensed care facilities for voting purposes, and can sometimes reuse photos from old driver&rsquo;s licenses.</p>
<p>Still, Sen. Al Franken (D) of Minnesota blasted voter ID in a speech last year, saying, &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve met, at these senior centers, our Greatest Generation, people who landed at Omaha Beach and fought their way across France and across Germany to take down Hitler and they&rsquo;re now in their late 80s and early 90s.&nbsp; I met a man who&rsquo;s worried about being able to vote. He doesn&rsquo;t have his birth certificate.&nbsp; Are you telling me this guy ... shouldn&rsquo;t be allowed to vote?&rdquo;</p>
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</div><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/voter-id-laws-disproportionately-hard-on-greatest-generation-2013-11#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/black-vote-white-turnout-census-obama-2013-5For The First Time In History, Black Americans Voted More Than Whiteshttp://www.businessinsider.com/black-vote-white-turnout-census-obama-2013-5
Thu, 09 May 2013 14:54:22 -0400Walter Hickey
<p>A <a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/" target="_blank">new study by the Census Bureau</a> found that the participation rate of black voters&nbsp;<span>in the 2012 presidential election</span>&nbsp;exceeded the non-Hispanic white vote for the first time in history. &nbsp;</p>
<p>The black voter participation rate has been steadily rising for decades, while the non-Hispanic white voter participation rate has been steadily decreasing since 2004. According to the Census report, 66.2 percent of the black population voted in 2012, compared with 64.1 percent of whites.</p>
<p>Here's a look in chart form:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><img src="http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/518bd05d69bedd8902000000-511-550/screen shot 2013-05-09 at 12.14.22 pm.png" border="0" alt="election race turnout" style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p>
<p>Black voters voted for President Barack Obama by a 93-7 margin, according to exit polls.</p>
<p>One other key takeaway from the report was that Hispanic and Latino populations have a strong potential to make a difference in future elections through a prolific increase in their participation rate, <a href="http://www.pewresearch.org/2013/05/08/six-take-aways-from-the-census-bureaus-voting-report/">as noted by the Pew Research Center.</a></p>
<p>According to Pew:</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><span>Because of population growth, the number of Latinos who voted for president increased by about 1.4 million from 2008 to 2012, to a record 11.2 million, but the number of Latinos who were eligible but chose not to vote increased even more &mdash; by 2.3 million &mdash; from 9.8 million in 2008 to 12.1 million in 2012.</span></p>
<p><span>Non-whites were a record high 26% of voters in the 2012 election.&nbsp;</span></p>
<p><a href="http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-568.pdf">Read the full report from the Census here &gt;</a></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/black-vote-white-turnout-census-obama-2013-5#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-voting-line-problem-2013-2Obama Wants To Make Voter Lines Shorter, But He Has No Idea Howhttp://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-voting-line-problem-2013-2
Wed, 13 Feb 2013 20:00:00 -0500Christie Thompson
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://pixel.propublica.org/pixel.js" async="true"></script>
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/50999c8169beddf32600000d-400-300/screen-shot-2012-11-06-at-6.33.46-pm.jpg" border="0" alt="voting line" />At tonight&rsquo;s State of the Union address, Michelle Obama will be joined by <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/02/11/3229065/first-lady-michelle-obama-invites.html">102-year-old Desiline Victor</a>, who, like many in Florida and elsewhere, waited hours to vote on Election Day.</p>
<p>&ldquo;By the way,&rdquo; Obama said in <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/us/politics/transcript-of-president-obamas-election-night-speech.html?pagewanted=all">his election speech</a>. &ldquo;We have to fix that.&rdquo;</p>
<p>But <em>how</em> to fix it remains unclear.</p>
<p>Though new research on states&rsquo; performance in the November election reveals long lines kept thousands from voting, there&rsquo;s still much we don&rsquo;t know about what would best speed up the process.</p>
<p>Victor&rsquo;s home state of Florida had the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/02/05/us/politics/how-long-it-took-groups-to-vote.html?ref=politics">longest average wait time</a> of any state at 45 minutes. Victor waited for three hours. Other Floridians reported standing in line for <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/06/3084088/polls-open-in-south-florida.html">up to 7 hours</a>.</p>
<p>Not every voter had Victor&rsquo;s stamina: Professor Theodore Allen at Ohio State University estimated that long lines in Florida deterred at least 201,000 people, using a formula based on voter turnout data and poll closing time.</p>
<p>The number only includes people discouraged by the wait at their specific polling site, and not those who stayed home due to &ldquo;the general inconvenience of election day.&rdquo; The real number, Allen says, is likely much higher. One study also <a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2Finteractive%2F2013%2F02%2F05%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Fhow-long-it-took-groups-to-vote.html%3Fref%3Dpolitics&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFQjCNHSNmPdnoad38GZAlg6Qg9-5a93Iw">showed</a> that black and Hispanic voters nationwide waited longer on average than white voters.</p>
<p>Some legislators are already proposing changes. Last week, Florida Secretary of State Ken Detzner released a <a href="http://www.dos.state.fl.us/pdf/2-4-2013_Recs_for_Increased_Accessibility_and_Efficiency_in_FL_Elections.pdf">set of recommended election reforms</a> that included allowing counties to expand early voting to 14 days. The proposal would reverse Governor Rick Scott&rsquo;s decision to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/us/politics/court-approves-early-voting-schedule-in-florida.html">reduce early voting</a> in the last election.</p>
<p>Another reason behind Florida&rsquo;s long lines was the <a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/five-of-the-most-confusing-ballots-in-the-country">state&rsquo;s incredibly long ballot</a>, which listed the full text of eleven, wordy constitutional amendments. Detzner has proposed limiting constitutional amendments to 75 words, which could also save counties money.</p>
<p>The 2012 election in Florida&rsquo;s St. Lucie County was roughly <a href="http://www.pewstates.org/research/analysis/st-lucie-county-florida-election-costs-double-85899450728">twice as expensive</a> as 2008, a hike the county election supervisor <a href="http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2013/jan/20/st-lucie-election-cost-twice-as-much-as-usual/">blamed on printing, mailing and processing longer ballots</a>.</p>
<p>Researchers say simply expanding voting hours and shortening ballots isn&rsquo;t enough. The U.S. needs to overhaul how they decide to allocate resources on Election Day. Many counties determine how many voting machines and poll workers to have in a district based solely on the number of expected voters. Others don&rsquo;t even do that, says Lawrence Norden, Deputy Director of the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice.</p>
<p>But the amount of time it can take to fill out a ballot can vary enormously by county or locale, because both ballots and machines can be different.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Yet the actual time it takes to cast a ballot is almost never considered. &ldquo;How long the job takes should be taken into account when you provision the resources to do that job,&rdquo; Allen says. &ldquo;If you just do it on head count alone, you&rsquo;re kind of being dumb.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Allen calls that &ldquo;dumb&rdquo; approach &ldquo;naive allocation.&rdquo; According to his team&rsquo;s research, counties could cut hours off of waiting time by shifting more machines to places with longer ballots. &ldquo;By simply acting smarter, we could cut the waiting time to 1/4 of what it would have been,&rdquo; Allen says.</p>
<p>Changes in voting technology can also result in voters spending more behind the curtain. After 2000&rsquo;s &ldquo;hanging chad&rdquo; disaster, many states turned to electronic voting machines. The touch-screen machines are easier for many to use, and encourage voters to weigh in on every item up for vote. But they can also take twice as long to vote on, Allen says. And strapped city budgets are reluctant to shell out <a href="http://www.saveourvotes.org/legislation/packet/08-costs-mdvotingsystem.pdf">thousands of dollars</a> per machine to make up for longer voting times.</p>
<p>Overall, average line waits have held fairly steady for the past ten years, says Professor Charles Stewart III of MIT. The problem is not necessarily getting worse, but it&rsquo;s not getting any better, either.</p>
<p>&ldquo;Studies show it&rsquo;s the same places that keep having the same problems,&rdquo; says Norden of the Brennan Center, referencing Stewart&rsquo;s findings. &ldquo;We tend to forget quickly after the election the problems that we had.&rdquo;</p>
<p>And as Norden points out, &ldquo;a lot of private companies have figured these things out in other contexts. There&rsquo;s a reason&hellip;McDonalds never seems to have nine-hour lines.&rdquo;</p>
<p>The most important thing, Stewart says, is conducting more research on what keeps lines long year after year. &ldquo;This is a persistent problem and it&rsquo;s one that we need to address,&rdquo; he says, &ldquo;but it&rsquo;s not one [where] there is a magic bullet.&rdquo;</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-voting-line-problem-2013-2#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-wont-win-latino-voters-with-reform-2013-1Five Reasons Republicans Won't Win Latino Voters With Immigration Reformhttp://www.businessinsider.com/gop-wont-win-latino-voters-with-reform-2013-1
Tue, 29 Jan 2013 11:12:40 -0500 Harry J Enten
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5107d4edecad04d55200000d-400-300/rubio-2.jpg" border="0" alt="Marco Rubio" /></p><p>Republicans <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/latino-voters-election-2012_n_2085922.html">may feel electoral pressure</a> to vote for comprehensive immigration reform.</p>
<p>They shouldn't &ndash; at least in the short term. Latino voters are Democrats, and Republicans would gain little even by making a 180-degree turn on immigration reform in the next 15 years.</p>
<p>Here are five reasons why.</p>
<p><strong>1. <em>&iexcl;es la econom&iacute;a, est&uacute;pido!</em></strong></p>
<p>Latinos didn't vote for President Obama because Mitt Romney was seen as insensitive on immigration.</p>
<p>According to a <a href="http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/09/18/economy-is-top-issue-among-latino-voters-fox-news-latino-poll-says/">Fox Latino poll</a> before the election, only 6% of Latinos said that immigration was the most important issue to their vote. A <a href="http://www.latinodecisions.com/2012-election-eve-polls/">Latino Decisions (LD) election eve poll</a> allowed multiple answers to issues that were important and, still, 65% did not say immigration was important to them.</p>
<p>Latinos instead cared about the economy. About 50% said the economy was the most important issue to their vote. By a 75% to 19% margin, Latinos are more likely to <a href="http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/04/04/v-politics-values-and-religion/">believe in a bigger government</a>, with more services, to a smaller one. President Obama got 75% of the Latino vote in the LD election eve poll &ndash; a perfect match.</p>
<p><strong>2. Latinos are liberal</strong></p>
<p>Latinos have said openly they won't change their vote because of immigration policy. Only 31% of Latinos in the LD survey said they would be more likely to vote GOP, if the Republican party took a leadership role in immigration reform. A full 58% said they didn't know or it would have no effect, while 11% said it would actually make them less likely to vote Republican.</p>
<p>The reason is that Latinos are 9pt more likely to say they are liberal than the general population. Most of that has to do with the economy, but even on social issues, Latinos, especially second- and third-generation, are no more conservative than the general population.</p>
<p>In fact, second- and third-generation Latinos are more likely to believe abortion should be legal and homosexuality accepted by society than the general population.</p>
<p><strong>3. Even "Latino-friendly" GOP politicians never did that well</strong></p>
<p>The <a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html">best Republican performances</a> among Latinos have still been a big bag of "meh". Ronald Reagan only got 37% of the Latino vote in 1984, despite winning 59% of the overall vote. Much has been made of George W Bush's exit performance with Latinos, but it's important to remember that <a href="http://cdn01.dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Apsanet.2004vote.pdf">pre-election polls</a> showed Bush in the low 30s. In fact, a <a href="http://www.wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/polls/exit_poll_results_082406.html">Latino-specific election day poll</a>, with a high number of Latino voters, pegged Bush's Latino support at only 35%.</p>
<p>The "worst" Republican showings among Latinos haven't differed much. Bob Dole got 23% of the two-party vote in 1996, which is the same as Mitt Romney in 2012.</p>
<p>This narrow band of difference tends to follow the voting patterns of African Americans and American Jews (staple demographic groups in the American electorate) in the past 30 years. We also haven't seen much movement among these groups &ndash; even with extensive voter outreach.</p>
<p><strong>4. Demographics don't swing elections</strong></p>
<p>Even if Republicans did bring up their percentage of the Latino vote, it wouldn't make a great difference nationwide. Say Mitt Romney won George W Bush's percentage of the Latino vote, he still would have lost the nationwide vote by 1.4pt. The reason is that the Latino vote still only makes up <a href="http://">9-10% of the vote in the national exit polls</a>, and slightly less in most other surveys.</p>
<p>The rate of growth of the Latino vote nationwide has been relatively slow. A solid <a href="http://neworganizing.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/NOI%20Hispanic%20Future.pdf">estimate matching past trends</a> from David Broockman and Ethan Roeder put the Latino vote growing about 0.6pt as a portion of the electorate every presidential election through 2024.</p>
<p>Obama's margin of victory would be just 0.7pt higher according to projected demographics for 2024. That puts an onus on Republicans to win more Latino votes, though it's not as large an imperative as one might assume.</p>
<p><strong>5. Most Latino voters don't live in swing states</strong></p>
<p>Most of the growth in the Latino vote is occurring in non-swing states. California and Texas are where most the Latino voters are and will continue to be. California will be blue for the foreseeable future, and Texas isn't going to turn blue for <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/electionate/110297/democrats-keep-your-eyes-texas">another decade and a half</a>. Arizona is an intriguing state for Democrats, though the recent Republican turn of the white vote makes it a non-swing state.</p>
<p>The only swing states in which Latinos make up the same or a greater percentage of the electorate than nationally are Colorado, Florida, and Nevada. A modest improvement for Republicans in these states could make a difference in a close election.</p>
<p>That's nothing to sneeze at, but the majority of swing states like Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are more likely to be determined by African-American and non-Hispanic white voters.</p>
<p>All in all, Republican appeals to Latino voters are not likely to win the party many more votes in elections. That's the bad news for the party of Lincoln.</p>
<p>The good news for Republicans is that Latino voters are, and will continue to be, only a slowly growing portion of the American electorate. And by the time Latinos make up 15% or more of the electorate, in 30 to 40 years, most of them will be second-generation or beyond.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/01/28/immigration-reform-great-for-the-country-not-for-the-gop/">Jamelle Bouie points out</a>, they are likely to assimilate in similar ways to Italian and Irish immigrants before them. When that happens, Latinos' stances on a whole range of issues will evolve.</p>
<p><img src="http://hits.guardian.co.uk/b/ss/guardiangu-api/1/H.20.3/98867?ns=guardian&amp;pageName=Five+reasons+Republicans+won%27t+win+Latino+voters+with+immigration+reform+%7C+Harry+J+Enten+Article+1859766&amp;ch=Comment+is+free&amp;c2=53056&amp;c4=US+immigration%2CUS+politics%2CMitt+Romney+%28News%29%2CUS+news%2CRepublicans+%28US%29%2CDemocrats%2CRace+issues+%28News%29%2CGeorge+Bush+%28News%29%2CWorld+news&amp;c3=guardian.co.uk&amp;c6=Harry+J+Enten&amp;c7=13-Jan-29&amp;c8=1859766&amp;c9=Article" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">This article originally appeared on </span><a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jan/29/immigration-reform-republicans-latino-voters">guardian.co.uk</a></p>
<p><img class="nc_pixel" src="http://pixel.newscred.com/px.gif?key=YXJ0aWNsZT03Y2RlM2RjYWU2ZmE1M2ZhZjViOGViM2ZjYTdlMjhjMiZvd25lcj01ZGYyMDgwZWQ3Y2QxN2VjMjVhYWU2ZTkwYWU2MzNmMiZub25jZT0wYmY3ZjgwNy02NzI3LTRiZmQtYmFlZi0wYjQ5YjFmZGIxZDcmcHVibGlzaGVyPThjMDBmYmVlNjFkNWJjZjBjNjA5MmQ4YjkyZWJiY2Ex" border="0" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-wont-win-latino-voters-with-reform-2013-1#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/dark-money-helped-republicans-hold-house-2012-12How Dark Money Helped Republicans Hold The Househttp://www.businessinsider.com/dark-money-helped-republicans-hold-house-2012-12
Wed, 26 Dec 2012 17:18:26 -0500Olga Pierce, Justin Elliott and Theodoric Meyer
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<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/4dfa3551ccd1d5ab6e2d0000-400-300/800px-Capitol_flag.jpg" border="0" alt="Capitol Building" />In the November election, a million more Americans&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/us/politics/redistricting-helped-republicans-hold-onto-congress.html?pagewanted=all&amp;_r=0">voted</a>&nbsp;for Democrats seeking election to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans.</p>
<p>But that popular vote advantage did not result in control of the chamber.</p>
<p>Instead, despite getting fewer votes, Republicans have maintained a commanding control of the House. Such a disparity has happened only three times in the last century.</p>
<p>(<a href="http://projects.propublica.org/graphics/seats-vs-votes">Here&rsquo;s a chart comparing 2010 and 2012</a>.)</p>
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<p>Analysts and others have identified redistricting as a key to the disparity. Republicans had a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/us/politics/redistricting-helped-republicans-hold-onto-congress.html?ref=reapportionment&amp;pagewanted=all">years-long strategy of winning state houses</a>&nbsp;in order to control each state's once-a-decade redistricting process. (Confused about redistricting? Check out our&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/video-the-redistricting-song">song</a>.)</p>
<p>Republican strategist Karl Rove laid out the approach in a Wall Street Journal&nbsp;<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703862704575099670689398044.html">column</a>&nbsp;in early 2010 headlined "He who controls redistricting can control Congress."</p>
<p>The approach paid off. In 2010 state races, Republicans picked up 675 legislative seats, gaining complete control of 12 state legislatures. As a result, the GOP oversaw redrawing of lines for four times as many congressional districts as Democrats.</p>
<p>How did they dominate redistricting? A ProPublica investigation has found that the GOP relied on opaque nonprofits funded by dark money, supposedly nonpartisan campaign outfits, and millions in corporate donations to achieve Republican-friendly maps throughout the country.</p>
<p>Two tobacco giants, <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/altria">Altria</a> and Reynolds, each&nbsp;<a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/527s/527cmtedetail_contribs.php?cycle=2010&amp;ein=050532524">pitched in</a>&nbsp;more than $1 million to the main Republican redistricting group, as did Rove's super PAC, American Crossroads; Walmart and the pharmaceutical industry also contributed. Other donors, who gave to the nonprofits Republicans created, may&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/how-nonprofits-spend-millions-on-elections-and-call-it-public-welfare">never have to be disclosed</a>.</p>
<p>While many observers have&nbsp;<a href="http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/08/15001252-money-cant-buy-happiness-or-an-election?lite">noted</a>&nbsp;that mega-donors like Sheldon Adelson backed losing candidates, a close look at the Republicans' effort on redistricting suggests something else: The hundreds of millions spent this year on presidential TV ads may not have hit the mark, but the relatively modest sums funneled to redistricting paid off handsomely.</p>
<p><a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/where">Where</a> Democrats were in control, they&nbsp;<a href="http://www.brennancenter.org/content/resource/redistricting_and_congressional_control_following_the_2012_election/">drew gerrymandered maps</a>&nbsp;just like Republicans. They also had their own secretive redistricting&nbsp;<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/08/us/politics/08elect.html?_r=0">funding</a>. (Last year, we&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/how-democrats-fooled-californias-redistricting-commission">detailed</a>&nbsp;how Democrats in California worked to undermine the state's attempt at non-partisan redistricting.) But Democrats got outspent 3-to-1 and did not prioritize winning state legislatures. They also faced a Republican surge in 2010.</p>
<p>Exactly how the Republican effort worked has been shrouded in mystery until now. But depositions and other documents in a little-noticed lawsuit in North Carolina offer an exceptionally detailed picture of Republicans' tactics.</p>
<p>Documents show that national Republican operatives, funded by dark money groups, drew the crucial lines which packed as many Democrats as possible into three congressional districts. The result: the state's congressional delegation flipped from 7-6 Democratic to 9-4 in favor of Republicans. The combination of party operatives, cash and secrecy also existed in other states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan.</p>
<p>Redistricting is supposed to protect the fundamental principle of one-person-one-vote. As demographics change, lines are shifted to make sure everyone is equally represented and to give communities a voice. In order for Republicans to win in North Carolina, they undermined the votes of Democrats, especially African-Americans. (Party leaders in North Carolina say they were simply complying with federal voting laws.)</p>
<p>The strategy began in the run-up to the 2010 elections. Republicans poured money into local races in North Carolina and elsewhere. It was an efficient approach. While congressional races routinely cost millions, a few thousand dollars can swing a campaign for a seat in the state legislature</p>
<p>The Republican effort to influence redistricting overall was spearheaded by a group called the Republican State Leadership Committee, which has existed since 2002. For most of that time, it was primarily a vehicle for donors like health care and tobacco companies to influence state legislatures, key battlegrounds for regulations that affect corporate America. Its focus changed in 2010 when Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush, was named chairman. His main project: redistricting.</p>
<p>Soon after Gillespie took over, the RSLC announced an effort to influence state races throughout the country, the Redistricting Majority Project, or&nbsp;<a href="http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/?page_id=2">REDMAP</a>. Fundraising soared. The group raised $30 million in 2010, by far its best year. (Its Democratic counterpart raised roughly $10 million.)</p>
<p>The RSLC is organized as a type of political group that can take in unlimited corporate donations. It must disclose its contributors. But that doesn't mean it's always possible to trace the origins of the money.</p>
<p>Along with Walmart and tobacco companies, the RSLC's largest funders in 2010 were the Chamber of Commerce and&nbsp;<a href="http://americanjusticepartnership.com/about.php">American Justice Partnership</a>, which gave a combined $6.5 million. Those two groups raise money from corporations and others but don't have to disclose their donors.</p>
<p>As the 2010 North Carolina legislative elections heated up, the RSLC jumped into local races. But the way they made contributions kept their involvement away from the attention of state voters. Rather than running campaign ads under its own name, the RSLC distributed money to a newly formed local nonprofit. The RSLC declined to comment.</p>
<p>The RSLC gave $1.25 million to its vehicle of choice&nbsp;<a href="http://realjobsnc.com/">Real Jobs NC</a>. The group&nbsp;<a href="http://realjobsnc.com/about/">calls itself</a>&nbsp;a "non-partisan organization that believes we need to return to a reliance on the free enterprise system that made our country great for real answers." It was started in 2010 and got a hefty $200,000 boost from dollar store magnate and Republican supporter Art Pope, although Pope denies his donation was related to redistricting or REDMAP.</p>
<p>Real Jobs NC produced ads and mailers slamming more than 20 state Democrats.</p>
<p>"Steve Goss &hellip; nice guy," intoned the voiceover in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8t03K9nleo">one such ad</a>&nbsp;in North Carolina, attacking then-Democratic State Senator Goss. "Too bad he's voting with the Raleigh liberals over hometown conservatives."</p>
<p>Goss lost, and Democrats lost control of North Carolina's <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/general-assembly">General Assembly</a> for the first time in a century. The pattern repeated itself across the country.</p>
<p>"Twenty legislative bodies which were previously split or under Democratic control are now under Republican control," said a triumphant RSLC REDMAP post-election&nbsp;<a href="http://www.redistrictingmajorityproject.com/?p=638">analysis</a>, highlighting its spending in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, among other states.</p>
<p>The next step for Republicans was to draw district maps, which can be expensive. The maps require expertise, extensive data and sophisticated software. Skillful map drawers can make even the most partisan gerrymander look reasonable.</p>
<p>To fund the work, the Republican State Leadership Committee used its previously dormant nonprofit arm, the State Government Leadership Foundation. Such dark money groups are&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/how-nonprofits-spend-millions-on-elections-and-call-it-public-welfare">increasingly popular</a>&nbsp;because they are allowed to keep secret the identity of their donors. Federal tax law permits them to do this as long as they pledge that politics is not their primary focus.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537961-state-leadership-government-foundation-2011-990#document/p1">Flush</a>&nbsp;with anonymous donors' cash, the Foundation&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537961-state-leadership-government-foundation-2011-990#document/p8">paid</a>&nbsp;$166,000 to&nbsp;<a href="http://rslc.com/_blog/RedMap/post/Presidents_Welcome/">hire</a>&nbsp;the GOP's pre-eminent redistricting experts, according to tax documents. The team leader was <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/10/the-league-of/309084/">Tom Hofeller</a>, architect of Republican-friendly maps going back decades.</p>
<p>"Our team would be happy to assist in drawing proposed maps, interpreting data, or providing advice," wrote Chris Jankowski, the head of both the RSLC and State Government Leadership Foundation, in a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537408-hofeller-sglf-rslc-letter">&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;of introduction to North Carolina legislators. The letter was disclosed as part of the North Carolina lawsuit.</p>
<p>"We are engaged in a number of states and believe we are playing a meaningful role in helping draw fair and legal lines that will allow us to run competitive elections in 2012 and in future cycles," Jankowski added.</p>
<p>The same letter emphasized that the Republican redistricting push was being funded through its dark money nonprofit: "The entirety of this effort will be paid for using non-federal dollars through our 501c(4) organization."</p>
<p>Jankowski, representing both the RSLC and the Foundation, declined to comment.</p>
<p>Because Hofeller's team was paid with dark money and the redistricting process is so secretive, it is hard to know the full extent of its activities. In Wisconsin, the team provided&nbsp;<a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/539678-dep-of-andrew-speth-dkt-143-11cv562">technical assistance</a>&nbsp;to an aide to Rep. <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/paul-ryan">Paul Ryan</a> as he drew new districts that <a href="http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=38333">favored Republicans</a>. In Missouri, Hofeller was the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2012/Feb/01/gop_redistricting_expert_says_mo__map_is_compact.html">sole witness</a>&nbsp;called by attorneys representing the Republican legislators who drew the maps there.</p>
<p>In the case of North Carolina, Hofeller made his&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537517-naacp-431#document/p1">first trip</a>&nbsp;to Raleigh on Feb. 1, 2011, even&nbsp;<a href="http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn61.html">before</a>&nbsp;final state Census data had been released, the first of 10 trips that year.</p>
<p>From then on, two parallel redistricting processes unfolded in the state.</p>
<p>Through the spring and summer, legislators in charge of redistricting traveled the state holding public meetings at local colleges, soliciting comment and proposed maps from citizens &mdash; though the Republicans on the committee would not produce draft maps themselves.</p>
<p>"We are not here to answer questions. We are not here drawing maps," state Senate redistricting committee chairman Bob Rucho&nbsp;<a href="http://www.indyweek.com/indyweek/redistricting-without-a-map/Content?oid=2426024">told the crowd</a>&nbsp;at a hearing in Durham. "What we are here for is to basically hear your thoughts and dreams about redistricting."</p>
<p>But that input had little influence on the districts that were eventually drawn.</p>
<p>Instead, the real maps were being produced behind the scenes by a team that based its operations at Republican Party&nbsp;<a href="https://maps.google.com/maps?q=1506+Hillsborough+St.,+Raleigh,&amp;ll=35.784112,-78.657432&amp;spn=0.0094,0.013819&amp;sll=35.784636,-78.658077&amp;layer=c&amp;cbp=13,24.8,,0,3.79&amp;cbll=35.784338,-78.658211&amp;gl=us&amp;hnear=1506+Hillsborough+St,+Raleigh,+Wake,+North+Carolina+27605">headquarters</a>&nbsp;on Hillsborough Street in Raleigh. Armed with advanced&nbsp;<a href="http://www.caliper.com/maptovu.htm">mapping software</a>, Hofeller and others crafted districts that would virtually guarantee big gains for the party.</p>
<p>Hofeller did not attend or read transcripts of any of the public meetings, according to his deposition. Hofeller did not respond to requests for comment.</p>
<p>A mysterious state dark money nonprofit that&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537894-fair-and-legal-redistricting-incorporation-doc">sprung up</a>&nbsp;just in time for the process, called Fair and Legal Redistricting for North Carolina,&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537152-exhibit-8-raupe-transcript-6-18-12#document/p28">hired</a>&nbsp;a technician to operate the mapping workstation day-to-day, and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537148-exhibit-4-deposition-rucho-transcript-5-4-12#document/p29">another Republican mapping expert</a>. The group did not respond to our requests for comment.</p>
<p>State-based nonprofits have been a vehicle for Republicans to funnel anonymous money into their map-drawing operations in a number of states, including self-proclaimed nonpartisan groups in&nbsp;<a href="http://www.michiganredistrictingresourceinstitute.com/">Michigan</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://minnesotaindependent.com/88645/undisclosed-money-flows-into-minnesotas-redistricting-process">Minnesota</a>.</p>
<p>Republican state legislators tasked with redistricting frequently visited and consulted with the mapping team, according to depositions. Even Art Pope, the&nbsp;<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/10/10/111010fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all">most influential</a>&nbsp;conservative donor in the state, was appointed "<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537149-exhibit-5-deposition-oldham-transcript-6-27-12#document/p126">co-counsel</a>" to the legislative leadership and allowed in the room to give direct instructions to the technician.</p>
<p>"We worked together at the workstation,"&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537152-exhibit-8-raupe-transcript-6-18-12#document/p42">said</a>&nbsp;Joel Raupe, the technical expert paid by Fair and Legal Redistricting, in a deposition. "He sat next to me."</p>
<p>Pope, who is a lawyer but does not actively practice, was made co-counsel to the state legislature, offering his services&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/540997-farr-response-to-newby-recusal-motion#document/p12">pro bono</a>. Now, because he was technically a legal adviser to the state, he says any information about his involvement in the redistricting is privileged.</p>
<p>(<a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/the-new-yorker">The New Yorker</a> had a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/10/10/111010fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all">sweeping profile</a>&nbsp;of Pope last year, detailing how he has used his fortune to dominate North Carolina politics.)</p>
<p>North Carolina's Republican incumbents in Congress pushed for a so-called "<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537525-naacp-447#document/p1/a84871">10-3 map</a>," the majority they hoped to win in the state's delegation.</p>
<p>Hofeller, the mapping expert, delivered. His maps kept most of the districts from being competitive &mdash; or even remotely winnable &mdash; for Democratic candidates.</p>
<p>A key part of the redistricting strategy was to push minority voters into three districts. Republicans&nbsp;<a href="http://propublica.org/documents/item/539914-joint-statement-by-senator-bob-rucho-and">insisted</a>&nbsp;their maps were "fair and legal," necessary to conform to&nbsp;<a href="http://www.justice.gov/crt/about/vot/intro/intro_b.php">laws</a>&nbsp;protecting minority voting rights, although according to a well-known voting rights attorney, the opposite is true.</p>
<p>But federal voting rights law "doesn't require a jurisdiction to pack blacks in districts," said Laughlin McDonald, director of the American Civil Liberties Union's Voting Rights Project. "If you tried to pack minority voters into a district, that would arguably be a violation."</p>
<p>In two of those districts, African-American incumbents been already been winning by large margins for years. Republicans' maps added yet more African-Americans to the districts, what's known in redistricting parlance as "<a href="http://www.propublica.org/article/redistricting-a-devils-dictionary">packing</a>." As Hofeller wrote in an email about one of the districts, the plan was to "incorporate all the significant concentrations of minority voters in the northeast into the first district."</p>
<p>A third district was 120-mile long, and sea monkey-shaped, connecting pockets of African-Americans from three different, distant cities. Republicans justified it on the basis of a common media market.</p>
<p>The maps were designed to "segregate African-American voters in three districts and concede those districts to the Democrats," says Bob Hall of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.democracy-nc.org/about-us/">Democracy North Carolina</a>, a nonpartisan public interest group that joined the lawsuit against the new maps.</p>
<p>In 2012, Democrats won the three districts by more than 70 percent of the vote. Another effect: the surrounding districts were much more Republican.</p>
<p>Rucho and other Republican legislators had presented the maps as&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/539914-joint-statement-by-senator-bob-rucho-and#document/p8">advantageous</a>&nbsp;to Democrats. <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/indeed">Indeed</a>, registered Democrats actually outnumbered registered Republicans in seven additional districts beyond those that were clearly slated to be Democratic.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537529-naacp-460">Emails</a>&nbsp;show Republicans decided to make that fact a major talking point.</p>
<p>But the stat was misleading, as the Republicans' own data indicates. An internal analysis of one of Hofeller's later drafts (code name "Blue Horizon 3") obtained by ProPublica shows that those seven allegedly "competitive" districts would have been landslide wins for John McCain in 2008, and for Republican Senator <a class="hidden_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.com/blackboard/richard-burr">Richard Burr</a> in 2010.</p>
<p>The carefully drawn maps&nbsp;<a href="http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/House/2012/NC">worked</a>. In this year's elections, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina won 50.6 percent of the total vote. But the state's House delegation now has nine Republicans and just four Democrats. One of the Democrats won by just a few hundred voters, despite the fact that his newly drawn district skewed heavily Republican and that his own home had been drawn out of it. North Carolina's&nbsp;<a href="http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_21/Race-Ratings-GOP-Looks-for-Major-Gains-North-Carolina-208044-1.html">delegation</a>&nbsp;before the election had seven Democrats and six Republicans</p>
<p>In addition to his pay from national Republican groups, invoices show Hofeller&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/537518-naacp-432">billed</a>&nbsp;North Carolina taxpayers $77,000 for his services.</p>
<p>The Republican maps are still under threat by suits filed by Democrats and the NAACP. The lawsuits are headed to the state Supreme Court. But a flood of contributions tied to the RSLC have lowered the risk of the maps' being overturned.</p>
<p>While judicial elections in North Carolina are nominally nonpartisan, it was&nbsp;<a href="http://www2.nbc17.com/news/2012/jul/29/political-balance-stake-nc-supreme-court-race-ar-2473469/">common knowledge</a>&nbsp;that Republicans held a 4-3 majority on the court. One of those Republican incumbents was facing a tough challenge in 2012, potentially throwing the whole redistricting result in jeopardy.</p>
<p>Justice Paul Newby was running for re-election against appellate judge Sam Ervin IV, grandson of the famous North Carolina senator who investigated Watergate. With a few weeks left until the November election, Newby was trailing Ervin.</p>
<p>But then, in the final stretch, Newby was the beneficiary of a flood of late spending that can be traced back to the Republican State Leadership Committee.</p>
<p>Once again the contributions were funneled through homegrown groups. With only a few weeks to go, the RSLC gave more than $1.1 million to a group called Justice for All NC. Campaign finance filings show Justice for All NC in turn gave nearly $1.5 million to a super PAC running pro-Newby ads, the NC Judicial Coalition.</p>
<p>Most of the money spent by the super PAC went to pay for&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wcnc.com/decision2012/TV-ad-in-NC-Supreme-Court-Race-brought-to-you-by-murky-super-PAC-175488831.html">hundreds</a>&nbsp;of airings of a&nbsp;<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sumn4Hc9OvM">jingle ad</a>&nbsp;featuring lines like, "Paul Newby / Justice tough but fair / Paul Newby / Criminals best beware" set to infectious banjo music.</p>
<iframe width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Sumn4Hc9OvM"></iframe></div>
<p>The spending didn't end there: and Pope's fingerprints were also on the race. Two dark money groups affiliated with Pope &mdash; the state-based&nbsp;<a href="http://www.civitasaction.org/">Civitas Action</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="http://americansforprosperity.org/about/directors/">Americans for Prosperity</a>&nbsp;&mdash; spent another $300,000 on radio ads and mailers supporting Newby. Pope's company also gave to the RSLC in the run-up to this fall's elections.</p>
<p>Pope says he gave money to Americans for Prosperity for years before the judicial race even came up, and that he was not involved in the decision to run pro-Newby ads.</p>
<p>"I'm Republican, I support Republican groups," Pope said. "But just because you support something doesn't mean you're responsible for all they do."</p>
<p>It was an unusually large amount of outside spending for a judicial race. The outside pro-Newby groups had&nbsp;<a href="http://www.telegram.com/article/20121101/APN/311019774">spent more</a>&nbsp;on the race than the two campaigns combined.</p>
<p>In the end, Newby eked out a 52-48 victory, preserving the court's Republican majority.</p>
<p>When the groups contesting the maps called for Newby to recuse himself from redistricting litigation, lawyers for Republican legislators&nbsp;<a href="http://www.propublica.org/documents/item/540997-farr-response-to-newby-recusal-motion#document/p6">argued</a>&nbsp;that because the campaign ads were paid for by "independent" groups, they did not jeopardize Newby's impartiality.</p>
<p>On Monday, the state Supreme Court rejected the motion for Newby to recuse himself.</p>
<p>"I've got no control over who contributes to an ad. I have no control over who endorses me," Newby &mdash; who did not respond to a request for comment &mdash;&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wcnc.com/decision2012/SuperPACs-spend-millions-for-Republican-in-NC-Supreme-Court-176496161.html">told</a>&nbsp;a local TV station on the eve of the election. "You've got to put your blinders on like lady justice."</p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/dark-money-helped-republicans-hold-house-2012-12#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p> http://www.businessinsider.com/voting-bias-study-2012-12Statistically, People Are Not Very Good At Making Voting Decisionshttp://www.businessinsider.com/voting-bias-study-2012-12
Thu, 20 Dec 2012 14:35:08 -0500Walter Hickey
<p><img style="float:right;" src="http://static6.businessinsider.com/image/50d0c57269bedd7a0b000003-400-/shrug-overwhelmed-confused-girl-millennial-gen-y.png" border="0" alt="shrug, overwhelmed, confused, girl, Millennial, Gen Y" width="400" /></p><p>A study by three scientists in the <a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FPSR%2FPSR106_04%2FS0003055412000391a.pdf&amp;code=6fc402e7f2db9e4f00828a47df480146">American Political Science Review</a> finds that voters are not competent at accurately evaluating incumbent performance and are easily swayed by rhetoric, unrelated circumstances and recent events.</p>
<p>Gregory Huber, Seth Hill, and Gabriel Lenz constructed a 32-round game where players received payments from a computer "allocator." The goal is to maximize the value of those payments.</p>
<p>Halfway through, at round sixteen, the player had to decide whether to get a new allocator or to stick with the old one.</p>
<p>The allocators pay out over a normal distribution based on a randomly selected mean. Getting a new allocator means that a new mean is selected. This was meant to simulate an election based on performance.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The group ran three experiments where they changed some of the rules of the game in order to find out how voters could be manipulated or confused over performance. Essentially, how good were voters at accurately analyzing the performance of the "allocator?"&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>The first experiment merely alerted the player at round twelve that they would have the chance to pick a new allocator at round sixteen. This "election in November" reminder made the player weight recent performance in rounds 12-16 over earlier performance in rounds 1-12.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The second experiment involved a lottery held at round eight or round sixteen. The payout was either -5000, 0, or 5000 tokens. The participant was told that the lottery was totally unrelated to the current allocator, but players still rewarded or punished their current allocator based on their lottery performance.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The third experiment primed the player with a question right before the election. The question took an adapted form of either Ronald Reagan's "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" or John F. Kennedy's "The question you have to decide on November 8 is, is it good enough? Are you satisfied?"&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<p>The conclusion:&nbsp;</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Participants overweight recent performance when&nbsp;made aware of the choice to retain an incumbent closer&nbsp;to election rather than distant from it (experiment 1),&nbsp;allowed unrelated events that affected their welfare&nbsp;to influence evaluations of incumbents (experiment 2),&nbsp;and were influenced by rhetoric to focus less on cumulative incumbent performance (experiment 3).</p>
<p>If you were ever wondering why Congress <a href="http://cstl-cla.semo.edu/Renka/ps103/Spring2010/congressional_incumbency.htm">has a 95% incumbency</a> rate despite <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/congressional_job_approval-903.html">an approval rating in the high teens</a>, this study may be worth a read.&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://journals.cambridge.org/download.php?file=%2FPSR%2FPSR106_04%2FS0003055412000391a.pdf&amp;code=6fc402e7f2db9e4f00828a47df480146">Read the full study here &gt;&nbsp;</a></strong></p><p><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/voting-bias-study-2012-12#comments">Join the conversation about this story &#187;</a></p>