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Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Guest post: The other football world cup

The following is a guest post from itwassammymcnallywhatdoneit, who well be well known among Slugger readers. Thanks to Sammy for a great pre competition analysis. Coincidentally I'm off to Dublin on Saturday to see the Irish team prepare for the competition with another match against France.

On the 9th September the Rugby football world cup kicks off and for a sizeable minority on the island of Ireland this will be the major sporting event of this year – if not the last four.

Ireland, share group C with Australia, Italy, Russia and the USA and if the form book proves reliable, we will qualify as runner-ups to Australia and exit at the quarter final stage to South Africa. Rugby, doesn’t tend to do surprises and the winners, on home soil, are likely to be New Zealand, the strong bookies favourites at 8/15.

Four years ago in France, Ireland were tipped as the dark horses (and with some encouragement from the Irish camp) and then immediately set about proving wrong, those who had mistakenly placed their faith in them - almost losing to Rumania(a team largely comprised of converted Greco-Roman wrestlers) and getting thumped by France and Argentina.

The rebranding of the proverbial underdogs clearly backfired.

So any optimism about Ireland’s fortunes will have to be kept very quiet and tempered by the knowledge that if the players get wind of such musings they will no doubt set about falling apart all over again.

So there should be absolutely no talk at all of Ireland’s grand slam win 2 years ago, the fact that we thrashed England(world cup winners and twice finalists) in the final game of this year’s 6 Nations, have a half dozen world class players in O’Driscoll, O’Connell, Ferris, Heaslip, Bowe and O’Brien and that Irish Provincial teams have won the Heineken Cup in 4 of the last 6 years.

And there should certainly not be any discussion of the possibility that if we did beat the very talented but very inconsistent Australians that there would most likely be no further Southern Hemisphere opposition until the final.

No, arguably the most talented Irish rugby team of all time need to keep their heads down, their feet firmly on the ground and with their underdog tag securely in place head off to do battle - and maybe, just maybe, they will surprise us.

France have made 13 changes for the game on Saturday and Ireland(who probably will have very close to a full strength team) are marginal favourites - they may well win the 2 warm up games against France and England and then trip over Italy - certainly if there is any weakness in the scrum the Italians will smell blood.

A win over any French team any time is nice (and rare) and would be especially so as I think we can in theory bump into them in the World Cup.

Six Nations form in the last World cup was no guide to England's performance and neither was the Tri Nations a guide to how New Zealand performed.

Once again, New Zealand go into the World cup as the best team. However, the gulf between them and the other rugby nations has widened since them. Part of this is down to the fact that they did not sack their manager immediately after being knocked out in the last world cup. Graham Henry seems to have brought on the NZ team to new heights.

Add to that the advantage of playing at home and the fact that their "bogey" team, France, are in their group and you have the biggest favourite since the competition began in 1987.

What about Ireland?

Ireland have the best team in the Northern Hemisphere but their side is aging. That makes it less likely that they will be able to play consistently well throughout the competition. They will therefore need to conserve themselves in the initial rounds whilst ensuring they do enough to qualify. Australia are presently weak in the scrum and I think Ireland will put a lot of their resources into beating Australia. Hopefully, they will have something left after that match to enable them to progress further.

I think your view (widely held)that Ireland have an 'aging' team is a bit overplayed, perhaps understandably because of the age and importance of our 2 most influential players - O'Driscoll and O'Connell whilst other oldstagers like O'Gara, Stringer, Wallace, Hayes are not first choice anymore.

But I do agree that it is a tad disappointing that the likes of O'Callaghan and D'arcy (who are getting on a bit) and who are arguably past their best are not under greater pressure for their places.

It may also be true that the Irish players, being under central contract and wheeled out largely for the big games in the HC and the 6N are not as aging as their miles on the clock might indicate.

Ireland have succeeded brilliantly in lowering expectations though may have arguably gone to far in losing all four of their warm up matches at the same time as their pool adeversaries Australia win the tri-nations. He may be able to tackle but surely D'arcy's place will have to come under pressure...

I'm having difficulty sticking with my they-will-suprise-us theory and I'm now warming to your 'aging team' theory - it would be refreshing to see a few good young players give it a lash.

Having read the Torygraph this morning I thought Ackford had perhaps gone over the top - and then I read the Neil Francis in the Sunday Independent.

In relation to the match I thought Trimble and Earls looked dangerous at times but I think it is a mistake not taking Fitzgerald as we looked so pedestrian in attack, except in patches and luckily England didnt really ram home their advantage.

In relation to blogs on the current plight, Munsterfans.com is a really good site, well worth a look.

Kidney master plan of understatement unfolding nicely, cant say I didnt doubt as it printed above that I did. Really like POC's post match comments - 'only a pool game' and 'we have won nothing'.

Since 2007, Leinster and Munster have won the HC 3 times so the team is packed with players who know how to win.

Thought D'arcy played well, but his hamstring is probably gone and it may well be O'Gara at 10 with Sexton at inside centre - Trimble may miss out again for Italy game - though Earls may be under pressure.

Thought that was Best's best ever game for Ireland and I think we finished up with 4 Ulster players on the field.

Ferris and O'Brien were outstanding as were front row and POC.

Probably only Northern Hemisphere teams blocking our way to final - with France the only one we will really fear.

Although one of those 'Ulstermen' I don't get at all. Perhaps it's not being a rugby man, but the reason that Tom Court's in the squad escapes me. I know he can put in a tackle, but the guy's a front row forward and he can't scrummage!

Surely the most disastrous weekend for Scottish rugby since professionalism - both Scottish teams losing to Italian opposition in the RaboDirect league and international defeat which makes their making the quarters very difficult. (Possibly the first time both Italian teams winning on the same weekend?).

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