I personally have spent much of the last couple of months writing about the Royals’ young position players and, to a lesser extent, about their rookie laden bullpen. The reason is quite simple: after years of projecting and theorizing about ifs and buts and whats and whens, we can actually look at the lineup that takes the field every night and know that ‘next year’ applies most if not all of them.

Seriously, when was the last time you watched a Royals’ team play in August and September and knew that basically the same team was going to take the field again in 2012….and be generally happy about it?

Ditto for the bullpen. Sure, there might be/will be some changes in the pen, but the core group will be back. Again, not only will they be back, but the thought of Coleman-Holland-Soria to finish out games in 2012 makes me happy.

So, long story to nowhere, but that is why I have spent a lot of time discussing the above. It is a real life, real time topic as opposed to the years of prospect watching and trade scenario (fun as it may be) fantasizing that was all we had as Royals’ fans to keep us marginally sane.

The starting rotation, however, throws us back into more theory than fact. We think Felipe Paulino is a true hidden gem: a strikeout pitcher with good control, who finally blossomed. We think Danny Duffy showed enough promise, enough stuff, as a rookie to progress into at least a middle of the rotation starter. While no one believes Luke Hochevar will ever justify his overall number one pick status, we think that his post All-Star break performance might indicate that he is ready to be a solid number three/four type starter as well.

Do three ‘thinks’ and a ‘might’ equal league average 2-3-4 starters? Or is it more like 3-4-5 starters?

At minimum, the Royals do not have a number one starter, much less an actual ace. Not long ago, we thought that Mike Montgomery might be that guy as early as 2012, but he is finishing off a AAA campaign that featured 69 walks in 150 innings with a decent, but modest, 129 strikeouts. John Lamb has spent all of 2011 on the shelf with Tommy John surgery. Chris Dwyer, who was never projected as a number one type guy, posted a AA earned run average solidly north of five. Jake Odorizzi had a very nice season, but spent just half of it above A ball. Will Smith also did a nice job this year, but his 108 strikeouts in 161 AA innings points more towards back of the rotation duty.

It would be foolish to give up on Montgomery or dismiss Lamb as wrecked, but none of the young arms the Royals so highly value is going to lead the rotation in 2012. That’s okay, all in all, unless you want to contend in 2012 and my gut feeling is that Royals’ GM Dayton Moore thinks his team can do just that.

Let’s go along with Moore for a moment and assume that Kansas City can at least consider contending in 2012. A lot has to go right, obviously, not the least of which is the three ‘thinks’ and a ‘might’ referenced above have to come true. If so, then you can rely on some combination of a resigned Bruce Chen, Everett Teaford or Aaron Crow to fill the fifth spot in the rotation and assuming THAT works out, you still have a big gaping hole in the number one spot of the Royals’ rotation.

How do you fill it? Free agency?

Unlikely. C.J. Wilson is not coming to Kansas City and neither is C.C. Sabathia, should he opt to opt-out. The rest of the market is thin and likely to be extremely overpriced. We are not talking about giving Gil Meche one more contract year than anyone else, we are talking about the Royals paying for an extra year and paying too much for all the years in front of that.

Trade?

Now, it gets interesting. In the prospect hungry world of major league baseball, number one pitchers are just three or four prospect away from wearing your uniform. It is a steep price, but doable. Keep in mind, the hopeless, money starved Astros were apparently asking for a package that starts with something comparable to Montgomery or Wil Myers for Wandy Rodriguez, who is not an ace to begin with. Doable, but steep….really steep.

To make it even a little more risky, the Royals might well find themselve trading, not for an ace or even a ‘number one’, but for a player who they think might become a number one. Think James Shields of the Rays as an example. There is talk he is available, but it could be just talk. Frankly, was it clear at this time last year that Zack Greinke would not be a Royal in 2011? Names could come up this off-season that you might never expect. Would the Angels consider trading Dan Haren to bolster an offense that is getting outstripped by the Rangers? Would the Phillies move Cole Hamels? What about the Dodgers and their off-field mess?

The names are all speculation, the price is actually a little easier to define. The Indians basically gave up the equivalent of Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow, Tim Melville and Paulo Orlando to acquire Ubaldo Jimenez. You know what Milwaukee gave the Royals and what the Nationals offered. The packages are all different, but they are also similar in the overall talent given away. If the Royals do it, it is going to hurt.

Should Dayton Moore make that kind of plunge in an effort to contend in 2012 or would it be wiser to make a smaller deal for an established mid-rotation guy and hope the Kansas City offense and bullpen are good enough to carry the team?

I will be honest, there is part of me that believes prospects are overrated (that may shock some of you) and that same part is impatient to contend. If Montgomery and Crow put James Shields (or insert your name of choice here if Shields bugs you) on the mound for the Royals on April 6, 2012, I would be hardpressed to say no. If throwing four prospects – four really good prospects (Wil Myers AND Montgomery to start, boys and girls) – gets Clayton Kershaw in a Royals’ uniform, I have to tell you that I am probably all in.

All that said, the prudent move is probably to bring in one mid-rotation veteran for a moderate trade price (Cain or Cabrera and something) and see what happens in 2012. The Royals might catch lightning in a bottle next season, but they are more likely to progress in fits and spasms: winning 12 of 14 and then dropping seven of eight. It might be wise to hope 2012 AAA is kinder to Mike Montgomery than this summer was and to hope that Aaron Crow’s bullpen stint turns him into a legitimate number two or three starter by 2013.

It is possible that a 2013 rotation of Montgomery, Duffy, Paulino/Hochevar, Crow and Odorizzi, with John Lamb rebounding nicely in AAA, may be a contending level group. The Royals could have all that and still have all their coveted prospects as well. Maybe.

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Written by Austyn about 3 years ago.

Clark as much as I want to disagree with your statement that “prospects are overrated”, you are completely true. I would be up for trading just about any prospect if it gives us a legit #1 guy, Clayton, Haren, etc there will be a lot of big names thrown out there this winter just to spice things up. Now if we don’t give anyone up, I am find with that but if we don’t it feels to me like we are hanging on to this Process being just 1 more year away, and I hope GMDM doesn’t fall into that trap of every offseason he is only willing to trade Kila type, Clint Robinson type players and only wanting the best of the best back when we have other more appealing pieces, and then tells us we are only a year away, year after year.

Written by Kyle about 3 years ago.

Clark, makes a very good point. It all depends on what the ROYALS think about contending. Are they are contenders in 2012, then yes, you trade the entire farm for a #1. If they are contenders in 2013, then you hold off, and hope that Monty & Dwyer walk less in 2012, W.Smith strikes out more in 2012, and Lamb recovers fully and makes it to AAA by the end of 2012.

Is a rotation of Hoch, Duffy, Paulino, Chen, Teaford (Crow, SOS, Mendoza, Mazzaro all get looks) going to compete? Probably not. If Monty comes to spring training like he did this year, he might get a spot in the rotation.

Written by jim fetterolf about 3 years ago.

“It might be wise to hope 2012 AAA is kinder to Mike Montgomery than this summer was”

If we need to hope, we should hope that the Royals change their loss-toss policy that affects Monty, JaKKKKe, and Arguellas just as three examples. Prediction: Monty resumes his long-toss program in the off-season and once more dominates in spring training next year. Odorizzi supposedly has been allowed to use a modified L-T program in Wilmington, but haven’t heard about Springdale.

The annual question without an answer about players is will they improve next year?. So when discussing the starting pitchers, do you make decisions based on this year’s stats or some level of improvement next year. If you look at the past three years for Hoch, Chen and Paulino, you’ll see a nice trend in improving WHIP and ERA. This could suggest another modest improvement next year for these three, plus Duffy should improve as well. With a full year of the set solid offense/defense, the Royals as a team should produce more wins next year.

A secondary point to consider is how much do the Royals have to improve next year to contend in our division? The AL Central is not the toughest division out there, I would target Detroit and Cleveland as the 2012 competition.

So back to the question of adding a pitcher, either a #1 or a middle of the rotation guy. Adding a #1 won’t give you that many more wins for the 2012 Royals than a middle of the rotation guy would – so I would go with finding a #2/#3/#4 guy to add to the mix – keeping in mind that the Royals will be holding one spot for Monty at some point next year.

For me a bigger issue is how the Royals are going to handle the blocked players at AAA/AA in the off-season. You can’t protect and promote everybody, will some of them just get released, getting nothing in return? If I were in GMDM shoes, I would be flipping them for A-level prospects.

Written by COroyal about 3 years ago.

I hope they sit tight, unless the return is Clayton Kershaw. Anybody else, I’m not interested (at least for the price the others are likely to command). I expect this team, currently constructed right this second, to finish at .500 next year – anything less is unacceptable at this point in the DM regime. Hope for the continued improvement of the starting pitchers in the upper minors, and be ready to go in 2013. At the break in 2013, then we can trade for a Mark Buerhle type, if we’re w/in 3-4 games of 1st place.

Written by Eric P. about 3 years ago.

I would sell the farm for Clayton Kershaw. If they’re legitimately willing to give up that guy you’re talking about a 23-year old under contract four more seasons who is already a top-10 pitcher in the league (and far superior to Zack Greinke might I add). The Royals should absolutely start targetting Ned Coletti for that guy the day the season ends and hopefully by the time Winter Meetings come around, the thought of a youth movement that doesn’t cost anything sounds good to a guy with a very depleted farm system.

I also think Soria may be packaged though it could be argued we are selling low (I disagree).

Written by Kyle E. about 3 years ago.

I have been a royals fan my whole 22 year existence, and they have never made the playoffs during my lifetime. I grew up going to every game until I moved to Indianapolis. I just graduated from mizzou, and I almost never miss a game due to mlb.tv and directtv. I follow sports religiously, read this site every day (this is my first post) and nothing means more to me than the royals…

That being said, my dad and I talk about the royals every day. I have been preaching ALL FREAKING YEAR that we need to add to our starting staff. While I am excited that our prospects (who are my age), it is blatantly obvious that we will not contend without a starting staff. How many teams have won the series recently that didn’t either A) have a great starting rotation, or B) have a starting rotation that was hot?

I have said all year that we should have traded Soria in the last offseason, and his trade value is nowhere near where it was even a year ago. While I love Soria, it is obvious that the closer role is so blatantly overvalued that his great contract doesn’t justify not trading him for 2-3 impact pitching prospects. What is the point in having a sometimes superior closer when you aren’t in the race? Take your pick of coleman, holland, (maybe crow), or herrera and we have a cheaper option and can add to our lacking starting prospects.

This idea has infuriated my dad, he was pissed when we traded dejesus but that was obviously a cash dump and he isn’t having that good of a year anyway. plus, as he likes to mention, dayton wanted Frenchy (who is now papa’s favorite player).

While that case can be made, I think the #1 starter debate is up in the air. While this year’s royals have one of the best outfields, are top 12 in many offensive categories, and top 12 in relief ERA… I am sure that we are in the bottom 5 of quality start percentages. We could easily go into next year with a rotation of hochevar, duffy, paulino, holland, and crow… and still have a great pen, not that I believe we should.

The bottom line is, our starters need to eat innings and keep us in games. The division next year is going to be winnable, and Dayton needs to find not only a stopgap until some of our pitchers can develop, but somebody who can be a long-term 2-4 starter and throw quality innings. Our offense is there, the defense will get better, and we are hosting the all-star game next year. There would be no better way to announce our presence then being within 3-4 of the division this time come mid-July. If we have to trade some top prospects (we talkin about prospects! players that haven’t proven a thing yet… and who aren’t top 5 picks like Moose and Hoz) then we should move if we can fill this hole on the team.

Written by Thelaundry about 3 years ago.

I agree that the FA market this offseason is a stay away. I am hopeful that a rotation upgrade through trade is possible, but I just don’t see Kershaw in play, despite the mess with the Dodgers. I could see Chad Billingsley being pried away because he has 3 yrs + option yr left on a at or near market deal. He is not an ace but he is only 27 and more accomplished than Meche was at the same age.

Wandy is less attractive because of age and career inconsistency, but given the Astros’ situation I don’t think they have as much leverage as they think – they are truly starting over.

I think Gavin Floyd might be an interesting possibility. Trades within the division are somewhat rare, but Kenny has done business with Dayton before and conventional wisdom definitely does not apply on the South Side. Floyd has been meh this year (4.42 era) but his fip and xfip are around 3.8, suggesting he could be due for a bounceback year, especially if he got out of US Cellular. He is guaranteed $7mil next year with a 2013 option for $9.5mil, which sounds a lot better than having Wandy for 3 yrs at $39mil.

If Dayton thinks his boys have a shot, he can get some value by taking on a contract to get at least a solid mid rotation guy instead of overpaying in the market.

Written by Jeff about 3 years ago.

I think getting Kershaw is a pipe dream. There is no way the Dodgers will trade him this year even if we gave up the farm. I can see Shields being available, but he will come at a steep price. I actually really like him, and he could be your defacto ace. He can match up well with almost anyone in the league, he has big game experience, and he is scary intense on the mound. Would i give up Monty/Myers/etc. to get him? I’m reluctant, so probably not. Would Crow/Cain/Melville/Orlando be good enough to get Shields? If so, then I say, “go for it.”

Written by Clark Fosler about 3 years ago.

I doubt that Kershaw is in play at all as well – mainly brought him up as many discuss him and he probably would be THE pitcher to get if there was any chance at all. I like the discussion that would surround giving up say four or five of your top eight prospects (unproven) for a 23 year old ace. Would it be enough? Is it too much?

Jeff – I don’t know that Crow/Cain/Melville/Orlando gets Shields. Despite his AAA season, I have to believe any defacto ace trade begins with either Monty or Myers at the top of the list.

Written by Jeff about 3 years ago.

If it’s Myers then I would need to keep Cain to fill in at center and I would move Bubba to RF. You need to keep some bullets to continue to plug away, especially since DM has proven to be less than competent at building a MLB roster. If four of my top 10 prospects brought back Kershaw, I would pull the trigger. He is a real game changer. He would be the only guy I would willingly give up Monty for.

I think anytime you can trade for an established MLB player that is better than what you have available then you should do it. The youth of the Royals hopefully allows them to be a little creative and maybe save a prospect in doing so. While Kershaw might cost Monty and Myers, along with a couple of lower level prospects, maybe the Royals can buy low on Billingley and Myers could be replace with Cain. The Giants have a taste for winning, but they’re OLD in the field…maybe Matt Cain can be had for Cain and Jake O. Until a guy strikes out MLB batters, he’s a lottery ticket. Its fun to dream what you would do if you won, but the odds are always higher for losing than winning. DM has always said pitching is currency…lets just hope he spends wisely.

If the Royals don’t want to send players away, then they should try to load up on as many starters that will work cheap as they can. There’s a chance Kevin Slowey is let go. He’s not great, but could fill a role in the rotation. Take a run at Jackson but don’t overpay. I guess I’d rather have five #3 starters than a #1, three #4s and a #5.

Written by Christian about 3 years ago.

Any reason to not give Soria a shot at the starting rotation, he has the pitches and everything. To me it always looks like he almost getting bored closing games, he might want that challenge and he used to be a starting pitcher anyways, i mean what can we lose really except maybe Soria steps up and can be an Ace he has the skillset for it.

Written by KCattheBat about 3 years ago.

The Tigers are 25 games above .500 with the third best record in the Majors. I think we need to be bold and if you’re going to go for it, I like the Milwaukee approach of going after multiple starters.

So you’d start 2012 with Kershaw, Floyd, Hochevar, Duffy and Paulino. That seems pretty formidable and you’d still have Crow in AAA and Lamb and Odorizzi a year away.

That seems like the only approach that gives you contending level performance on both sides of the ball. With the depth of the farm system, we wouldn’t be as depleted as Milwaukee’s minor league is now either and could plug in gaps from their to remain in contention for years to come.

I really don’t think the Royals even have the top prospects to be in the discussion for a #1 starter. Myers and Monty no longer gets you in the door, the Monty and Myers of one year ago did, but not anymore. The system seems more quantity than quality now. If you mentioned Myers and Monty for Kershaw you’d get laughed out of the room. Unfortunately, there just aren’t any sexy top 20 guys left in the system which you need to start talking about true #1s. That ship might have already sailed. But I really hope they push hard for any available starting pitcher in the trade market, I don’t think I’d miss anyone in the system (short of Bubba) if it meant the possibility of having a complete rotation to start they year.

Written by Kyle about 3 years ago.

Prospect evaluators do not sour on a prospect after part of a bad season. Myers was injured alot of the first half, and was only 20 in AA this season. Monty still has the tools to be an ace, so I don’t think that would scare anyone away. He just needs to walk a few less. The Royals still have a top 5 Farm system.

I wouldn’t want any trade to involve them, but I think it has to if you want a #1. I don’t think Lamb has dropped too much either. They usually don’t drop prospects b/c of injury either. So there is probably still Monty, Myers, Lamb, Odorizzi in the top 50. Then add Bubba for sure. And maybe one of the other pitchers they picked in the draft. I don’t know how they evaluate 16 year old prospects, but Elier Hernendez could also be up there.

They could still have 6 top 100 prospects. Not as good as last year, but they also graduated 12 or so prospects from last year.

Written by Keith about 3 years ago.

I know the thought is “Prospects”; but, what if Crow closes and Robinson is given a chance DH/1B. That gives GMDM Soria and Butler to play with in a trade. Would you package Soria or Butler to get? Kershaw, M Cain, Shields, Haren, C Hammels? I believe I would.

Written by jim fetterolf about 3 years ago.

Kershaw or Cain. Soria is replaceable and Billy, while a star hitter, doesn’t have the value to the team of Gordon or Hosmer and can be replaced, at the moment, by Melky with Cain moving to CF. Billy’s a good enough 1B to play in the NL, just not good enough to replace Hosmer. Of course, Melky might be a good trade to SF with Beltran leaving.

Written by klog11 about 3 years ago.

any trade for a starter should not start with prospects. its talks should start with soria and go from there that away what we give up in prospects isnt as top flight and we are able to retain our depth

Written by fredrick about 3 years ago.

at this juncture we can assert that we have strong candidates for the back end of the rotation. i am comfortable with mendoza, paulino and montgomery. other options for the rotation obviously include hochevar, crow, and teaford. i do not think we resign chen because he is a type b free agent.

because of all the names in the running for the rotation he can be let go and frankly i would rather have the draft pick (more upside) than another year of bruce. francis can be go too. i am not a fan of luke. since he had a good second half this is the prime chance to deal him before he sucks again.

when it comes to prospects, who stays and who goes depends on the team needs and circumstances. essentially any prospect should be up for grabs if the price is right. that said, i would not deal certain guys like lorenzo cain, odorizzi, antonio, amongst others. guys who can be dealt include most notably wil myers