Donald Trump

From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now.

In my view, you won’t get bigger than the 1.78 currently available on the Betfair exchange, the best in the industry, between now and November. Here’s six reasons why.

Any Democrat candidate appears to enjoy an in-built advantage

There is a fundamental reason why the Democrats have consistently been favourite to be the Winning Party ever since the market opened after the 2012 election. The changing nature of the US population and distribution of votes within the electoral college appear to imply an in-built advantage.

It almost goes without saying that the latest debate for The Election Like No Other will again produce a record TV audience. Donald Trump will legitimately claim credit for that but, happily, CNN have refused to bow to his hilarious demand for a $5M appearance fee.

Why are people watching, besides entertainment value? Undoubtably a section of the US population are genuinely inspired by his candidacy, but many more are disgusted. 47% now hold a ‘very negative’ view, compared to 33% and 35% respectively for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton – who are hardly short of haters from their opposing side.

That tells me that, in addition obviously to actual GOP primary voters with a genuine interest beyond Trump, plenty are watching to see him get taken down. Is tonight the night?

I felt Trump made little impact in the last two debates, but nobody actually damaged him. John Kasich certainly made an effort, so too Rand Paul, but neither saw any poll bounce as a result. Perhaps because their brand of Conservatism is fundamentally different to that of Trump supporters.

Now, though, with Ted Cruz surging past him in Iowa, the challenge is very different. Cruz hasn’t attacked Trump throughout, instead praising his hardline focus on immigration. Outside the debate arena, he’s made it clear that Trump voters are in his sights, as the race develops.

Interestingly too Rush Limbaugh, that bellweather of ultra-Conservative opinion, came to his defence in his radio show. Despite being one of the few mainstream voices to defend Trump’s planned ban on all Muslims entering the USA, Limbaugh went after him on this, saying:

“A genuine conservative, even in the Republican field, would not go after Cruz this way. So that just raised a red flag for me, made me somewhat curious.”

At risk of ramping my own bets on Cruz – and this is definitely his biggest test yet, finding himself a target for the rest, who mostly despise him – I think Trump has finally picked the wrong fight, and met his match.

Jeb Bush’s Presidential campaign has hardly been the most effective, but the one-time runaway favourite for the Republican Nomination made perhaps his most prescient intervention last week, wondering whether Donald Trump had cooked up a deal with his old pal Hillary Clinton.

For the market response to Trump’s latest headline-grabbing plan – to ban all Muslims from entering the USA – has been overwhelmingly positive for the probable Democrat nominee. Seven weeks ahead of the primary process just to win her Democrat party’s nomination, Clinton is rated up to a 57% chance for the presidency, matched today at odds of 1.76.

It is easy to see why. Trump’s candidacy in general has spooked the GOP high command, who once hoped to have a strong, establishment-approved candidate effectively in place by early March.

At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up.

Marco Rubio remains the clear favourite, rated around 37%, but doubts are beginning to creep in. Check out this piece from Jamelle Bouie at slate.com, pondering that he could be a paper tiger. That his polling and organisation lag behind his rivals. It is early days of course, but I have some sympathy with these arguments.

Whilst I very much respect Rubio’s chance, the thing that has deterred me so far from adding him to the book is the crowded race in New Hampshire. Historically, this is where the mainstream pick, with nationwide appeal emerges. I don’t expect Cruz to win there.

So far all the polls have put Trump well out in front. As with other surveys, we’ll see if that actually materialises but until an obvious, close rival emerges there – as Cruz has in Iowa – the prospect of him winning NH must be taken seriously.

And the problem is that so many others chasing that establishment pick mantle have staked their campaign on it.

John Kasich and Chris Christie have put a tremendous effort in the Granite State, and are being rewarded by poll numbers well in advance of their national ratings. Although she appears to be slipping out, Carly Fiorina briefly polled in second place.

With Rubio and Jeb Bush, that adds up to five candidates chasing one spot. On the latest RCP average, they total 41% of votes, with Rubio only just leading amongst them on 12%. It seems highly unlikely any of them will quit before the primary.

Now I have doubts about Christie’s nationwide appeal, but the New Jersey Governor could certainly win New Hampshire. And no surprises for guessing his latest move – attack his main rival, Rubio – describing his defence of missing key Senate votes as ‘baloney’.

Plausibly, we could see Cruz win Iowa, then either Trump or Christie win NH before a series of Southern states – that should favour Cruz. Where would that leave Rubio? (Let alone Bush, who remains inexplicably over-rated at 11% for the nomination, despite making no headway whatsoever).

I’ve just written a big piece for Politico, explaining my long-range view and strategy for this Presidential race. Why I feel an outsider can win, and why they represent the best early betting value.

Time will tell and perhaps in due course, a mainstream candidate will emerge. Right now though, they are carving each other up and everything is favouring the outsiders, whether it be Trump or my main pick Cruz.

In short, I’m biding my time, very happy with the early book, for which we could already secure a sizeable profit just by selling or ‘laying’ back Cruz. Compared to the average 3.5% at which we’ve already backed him, Cruz is now up to 13%, third behind Marco Rubio and Donald Trump in the GOP betting.

However I expect that rating to rise further in the weeks ahead, and am looking for 20% and beyond. If he hits that, I’ll bank *some* of the profit, while leaving an extra position running.

Why so much confidence in Cruz? Basically, I agree with what seems an emerging consensus amongst political experts that the GOP race is moving towards a Rubio v Cruz showdown – representing ‘mainstream’ and ‘insurgent’ wings of the party respectively. If that head-to-head scenario develops, one would expect both to be at least 25%.

Yet whereas Rubio is already rated beyond 40% and therefore of limited betting value, Cruz is still ‘in the pack’. He’s definitely got momentum – see the latest poll for the key Texas primary showing him tied with Trump – and critically, we’ve already got what amounts to a cheap cover position on key rival Ben Carson. If Carson fades, Cruz is the likeliest beneficiary.

At this stage, I’m loathe to make a final prediction. There’s no need. My game is about trading politics like the stock market – trading in and out of candidates with a view to secure an overall profit.

For now my focus is the GOP nomination but once we get to the New Year, there will be individual primary markets to consider, then state betting, electoral college distribution, vice presidential picks.

*** From next weekend, I’ll be arriving in Las Vegas and travelling the States for a year, following this in depth. We’ll be doing short films on Periscope, talking betting and politics with American voters. Do get in touch, we’d love to hear from you!

Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton, a 55% chance at [1.85].

So far as his party’s nomination is concerned, Rubio remains runaway [2.54] favourite, which equates to a 39% rating. Donald Trump remains next best at [6.4] or 15%, followed by Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush at around [9.6] (10%).

None of these numbers appear to have been particularly affected by the debate, for which there was no obvious headline winner or loser. Unlike previous exchanges, the Fox Business Debate was very policy-heavy.

Rubio, the star performer in the earlier debates, performed confidently again but, given the chance to spell out their plans with more airtime in a slightly smaller field, others also came to the fore.

One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment.

Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked so far in this debate illustrate why the American people don’t trust the media.” Veteran focus group watcher Frank Luntz said it registered better with his group of Republican voters than any line in his memory.

The CNBC moderators certainly went on the offensive from the start. Cruz was right to observe the attempt to stir up a fight, by encouraging John Kasich to attack outsider candidates Donald Trump and Ben Carson. Why expect anything less from a TV network chasing entertainment and ratings?

The critical point for gamblers to consider is whether Republican primary voters, (or indeed voters in general), have become completely detached from the mainstream media conversation. Just as left-wing Jeremy Corbyn supporters stand accused of creating an echo chamber via social media and friendly networks in the UK.

If so, we can rip up much of the old election-betting rule book (as I did when backing Corbyn). In all recent elections, the Republican Party has chosen mainstream presidential candidates. The conventional wisdom is therefore that the two non-politicians leading the polls will crash and burn, but Trump and Carson have thus far proved resilient.

Indeed, these GOP poll respondents saw a very different debate to me or most commentators. I felt Marco Rubio and Cruz fared best while Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina did pretty well. By toning down his usual stream of abuse, though, Trump seemed irrelevant. Carson looked a lightweight. Their novelty factor was wearing off.

What happened in the polls? Rubio and Cruz indeed got a good boost but remain a long way behind the leaders. Carson actually rose despite that soporific performance. Christie remains stuck on 2%, forcing relegation from tonight’s main stage. Fiorina made little headway either.

This week’s headlines have been dominated by Carson. His past is being scrutinised like never before, by media and opponents. He appears, by conventional wisdom, to be handling it terribly – ridiculously complaining that nobody has ever been scrutinised like this before.

At the weekend, Carson’s ratings fell significantly, from 10% to 6% for the nomination. But is this premature? If GOP voters think the media is out to get them and rewards the candidates fighting back hard, Carson’s refusal to take criticism lying down could work to his favour.

Progress is at last being made in shrinking the field. Eight candidates will share the main stage tonight, among whom Rand Paul has no chance of winning. Kasich, Fiorina and Jeb Bush urgently need a boost.

If the polls don’t start shifting over the next month, we could be looking at a four-horse race, including three candidates that seemed unimaginable at the start. Two non-politicians, apparently beyond scrutiny. The ultimate Washington outsider in Cruz (still my main trading pick), plus Rubio.

No wonder the favourite’s odds are hardening. Rubio is now rated a 39% chance for the nomination. Having starred in all three previous debates, tonight is another good opportunity to cement his status as the mainstream pick. But in a race that has proved so unpredictable to date, dare one take such short odds?

Sunday’s re-election of Turkish President Rayep Erdogan dealt a further blow to the most established means of predicting politics. Erdogan’s AKP won decisively with 49.4%, compared to an average of 43.7% in the last five opinion polls.

In fairness, late opinion polls were banned from publication so perhaps they would have picked up that significant late swing, but there’s no recent evidence to suggest they would have.

They certainly didn’t in May’s UK election, when even polls published on the day predicted a virtual dead-heat, rather than a 6% Conservative victory. Nor was NO projected to win the Scottish Indepedence Referendum by anything like 10%.

Likewise in the 2012 US Election, polls were famously predicting virtual a dead-heat, rather than a landslide Obama victory. At the same time as pundits were claiming it was ‘too close to call’, Betfair’s Next President market rated him over 80% likely to win.

No wonder what seems like the entire commentariat are dismissive of polls for the GOP Nomination showing outsider, non-politicians Donald Trump and Ben Carson dominating, sharing around 50% of the vote.

After a couple of days digesting the fallout from the latest Republican debate, there are clear conclusions to be drawn regarding who won or lost, whose stock rose or fell.

Jeb Bush’s campaign is in total crisis. The longstanding early market favourite was put firmly, embarrassingly in his place by Marco Rubio after an all too transparent and predictable attack on his former protege.

That is the only contribution viewers will remember from Bush, as he totally failed to make an impact. Worse for an under-pressure, establishment candidate, all his main rivals did pretty well.

In terms of winning the broadly defined ‘mainstream’ segment of GOP opinion, Bush is locked in a five-cornered fight and all four rivals had good nights.

Rubio was the clear standout performer, again. Chris Christie barged his way into plenty of airtime and typically scored with populist lines. As did Carly Fiorina. John Kasich may receive no benefit, but made the ‘moderate, real-world, anti-outsider’ role his own.

When I laid out seven reasons why Bush won’t be the nominee a month ago, he was rated a 35% chance. He’s now just 9% and a terrible bet at those odds. If you laid when he was favourite, my advice is to stick with it rather than closing out for a profit. He won’t win.

Regarding the front-runners in polls, neither Donald Trump or Ben Carson looked like presidential material. This debate was of a much higher standard regarding policy, detail and clarity. Both looked inferior to conventional politicians.

The market continues to get behind Rubio. He’s now rated a 36% chance for the nomination on Betfair, 15% for the Presidency. Along with most commentators, my view remains that he’s the likeliest winner and most electable. At present, the front-runner tag does not seem a burden.

These are potentially attractive bets, but lets wait to see a bit more evidence in forthcoming polls. It is all very well for pundits and experts to pick their winner, but going into the debate he was a long way behind Trump and Carson in the polls. Actual voters increasingly take a very different perspective, as someone like Carson proves.

His spirited attack on the CNBC moderators will have gone down a treat with the conservative base that love Cruz. Remember, he has won the Voter Values Summit three years running. He has vast sums to hand and a deep grassroots network. Nobody is better placed to pick up voters now having second thoughts about Carson or Trump.

As for the rest – Huckabee, Paul and the four undercard candidates – they simply aren’t in the race. Soon this will be down to a maximum of five realistic candidates. Rubio and Cruz are certain to be among them.

With less than 100 days until the Iowa Caucus, the race to be the Republican Nominee continues to defy convention, expert opinion and the wishes of the party elite. Few expected 14 candidates to still be on the stage for Wednesday’s third TV debate, live on CNBC. Even fewer expected Donald Trump would remain the clear front-runner.

These two developments are related. Trump’s unique, brash, entertaining persona has inevitably dominated coverage and, with such a huge number of opponents, the rest have struggled to be noticed.

If they’re lucky, Trump attacks them and the viewers remember their comeback. When Carly Fiorina took him down for mocking her appearance, it was the highlight of the last debate. If they’re unlucky, they struggle to get any memorable airtime and are forgotten. That goes a long way to explaining Scott Walker’s sudden demise and John Kasich’s recent poll slide.