Shipments of the iPhone 5S would have to climb back toward 35 million to 40 million units in the next couple of quarters, he said, adding that low expectations had the company selling around 24 million iPhones in that period.

"Ironically, the big change in the phone is actually going to be the software in fall," Milunovich said, adding that the phone could boast digital-fingerprint security to enable mobile payments.

Apple could also introduce some kind of "pen" device, as well as a new iPad mini model that includes a Retina display.

"But is that really enough to get people excited and really boost those sales numbers? Probably not."

Trader disclosure: On June 25, 2013, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC's "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Anthony Scaramucci is long AAPL; Anthony Scaramucci is long BAC; Anthony Scaramucci is long C; Anthony Scaramucci is long MS; Anthony Scaramucci is long GOOG; Steve Weiss is long C; Steve Weiss is long BAC; Steve Weiss is long AIG; Steve Weiss is long THC; Mike Murphy is long BAC; Mike Murphy is long VLO; Mike Murphy is long LEN; Mike Murphy is long FB.