Personal thoughts, opinions and comments of an independent consultant, political analyst and historian, who lives in Ireland but is aware of the whole world.

28 August 2008

Barack Obama - a Chance and a Challenge

I would never ever call myself a 'prophet', but some have used the word 'prophetic' recently with regards to my analysis of and comments on the US presidential election campaign.

Well, to make this quite clear: I have neither a 'sixth sense' nor any special insider connections to the political parties in the USA and their activists. All I did at the begin of the year was to look at the situation, the people involved (at that time there were still 26 different individuals seeking the nomination in either the Democratic or the Republican Party) and then I analysed their potential chances of being elected, first inside their own party, and then in November by the US voters.

In entries from January 4th, January 9th and February 1st I predicted - correctly, as it turned out - that this year's presidential election would be contested by Senator Barack Obama (right) for the Democrats and Senator John McCain (below left) for the Republicans.

Despite strong initial support for Senator Hillary Clinton, especially from Irish Americans and from a lot of groups and institutions here in Ireland, I could not see her being successful in the quest for the White House. Right from the start her campaign was too arrogant, aggressive and simplistic. The message that came across was basically: I was already in the White House for eight years as a wife, so now I am entitled to another eight years there as President.

Well, if the USA would like to install a hereditary system of government, they could do so openly and through legislation. But doing it through the back door is neither fair nor clever. Actually, had Hillary Clinton been nominated and won the election in November, the USA would have had a spell of 24 (and perhaps even 28) years under the rule of either a member of the Bush family or the Clinton family. This is not what the Founding Fathers had in mind in 1776.

In fact, in the more than two centuries the USA had an elected President, George W. Bush is only the second case of a President's son being elected President as well. (The first was John Quincy Adams, the 6th President and son of the 2nd President John Adams.)

Hillary Clinton also failed to realise that her support for the illegal war against Iraq and the still ongoing and equally illegal occupation of this country by US troops was a huge negative burden for her campaign. She and her advisers made further a crucial mistake by underestimating the potential of Barack Obama, in particular his great appeal to young people and ordinary citizens who are fed-up with the Bush administration and the right-wing Republicans.

So it was clear for me from the outset that only Barack Obama could be a true alternative to the current administration. Even though I have neither a vote nor any influence in the USA, I did support his candidacy from day one. And I am glad that, despite all attempts by Bill and Hillary Clinton to throw political mud at him, the junior Senator from Illinois has now taken the first and very important hurdle and received the official nomination of his party.

It will now depend on the maturity and common sense of the American people if he can go all the way to Washington and become the 44th President of the USA. Personally I hope he will, as he is - in my opinion - at present the only person in US politics who could stop the rapid decline of the USA in political as well as economical terms. And he is also the only one who could - with at least some chance of success - try to repair the extremely damaged image his country has now in the world, thanks to eight years of arrogance, ignorance, blunder, crimes and war crimes under George W. Bush and his cronies.

For both the USA and the rest of the world a President Obama would be a chance as well as a great challenge. Without drastic changes of policy, attitude and behaviour the USA are doomed to complete failure, which would subsequently - and probably quite speedily - lead to a collapse of the USA as we know her. The example of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire stands as a clear writing on the walls of the White House already...

A few days ago US police and FBI discovered a plot by right-wing extremists to assassinate Senator Obama. I sincerely hope that the United States have learned the lessons of the past 45 years and are now able to prevent such crime and tragedy. With the murder of President John F. Kennedy in 1963 and his brother Robert in 1968 the USA took large steps back into the Dark Ages. Subsequently the country fell into the hands of the crook Richard Nixon, the cynical war monger (and ex-CIA boss) George H. W. Bush and then - most tragically - into the lap of the by far worst leader the USA ever had: George W. Bush, a lazy and uneducated criminal and war criminal who came to power through a coup d'etat and destroyed all trust and credibility the United States had left in the world.

Should Barack Obama be murdered like the Kennedy brothers, the USA would rightfully be seen as a nest of vipers and killers by all the world. So I really hope that the vast security apparatus for which the US tax payers spend billions of Dollars every year, will do its job properly this time.

However, I do not expect miracles from a President Obama. Should he win in November and get to the White House, he will still be an American politician, bound into a long-established system of powers and vested interests. No-one, regardless how ambitious or alternative he might be, is able to change the whole system completely.President John F. Kennedy - ably assisted by his brother Robert (then Attorney General), Dean Rusk (Secretary of State) and Robert McNamara (Secretary of Defense) - made honest attempts and managed to achieve quite a lot, before he was murdered by the forces of reaction.

Barack Obama would run into the same political mine fields and barriers that vested interests in Washington have created around the White House. Those obstacles are well guarded, no matter who is President. However, if anyone at this point in time could make a difference and bring back some degree of dignity to US politics, it would be Barack H. Obama.

With his choice of Senator Joseph "Joe" Biden (right) for the position of Vice President he made a shrewd move. It not only brought vast amounts of tradional Hillary Clinton supporters into the Obama camp, it also bolstered the campaign substantially where it was weak: in the areas of foreign and defence policies.Joe Biden, a solid and sincere working-class American of Irish stock, is probably the most senior and most experienced US politician in these areas. Being also a man who does not shy back from an argument, he is the ideal match for Barack Obama, whose strength is more the bigger picture and the principal direction of politics.

In my analysis in January I suggested John Edwards as a possible running mate for Obama, and I still think that this combination would also have been a very powerful Democratic ticket. But in the selection of Joe Biden the Obama campaign has gone even further than they would have with a selection of John Edwards. I do hope that the majority of US voters will see the light and elect Obama and Biden in November. If not, no "God bless America" and no shoring-up of the vast damage done to the ship of state by the current administration, will help to save the USA.

As things are, we are currently witnessing once again history in the making. The future of the USA and with that the future of the civilised world will be decided within the next ten weeks. So, watch this space and keep watching the USA.

The Emerald Islander

P.S. There is one thing I find very strange in regard to the reporting about Barack Obama. Many journalists speak of him as the potentially "first black President of the USA". This is not a correct description, as Senator Obama is of mixed race, the son of a black Kenyan father and a white American mother from Kansas. So why is he then always called "black"? What is wrong with being of mixed ethnic background?By calling Barack Obama "black" the people who do it ignore completely his white mother, who brought him up alone after his father had left the USA.In US 'politically correct' public speak the word black is no longer used (except by black people) and instead the currently fashionable version is 'African-American'. In Barack Obama's case this is probably the most correct description, since he is indeed the child of an African father and an American mother.

I do try to put things proper, and what I write is always based on good research and deep analysis.

Most people these days - including many journalists - look at everything on a day-to-day basis. This makes often shallow reading. Sadly only a few newspapers, magazines and radio stations employ a real political analyst.

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Ceid Mile Fáilte!

A hundred thousand Welcomes, as we say in Irish.

You are indeed most welcome to my humble weblog, to which I post each day a personal column, reflecting my views, thoughts and opinions of the day. Often the entries will be inspired by events and news from Ireland or abroad. Having lived in various countries before I grew solid roots on the Emerald Isle, I take note of many things that happen on the planet.And I have views and opinions.Please be my guest, read and think, and feel free to leave your personal comments as well. They are as welcome as you are here.On the right you also find some additional information, related to Ireland and other matters, for example books I recommend. From time to time I also have opinion polls and appreciate your participation. And if you like what you read, you can subscribe to my weblog (using the box below) and will receive every new entry automatically.And in case you want to find a specific word or subject - on the world-wide web or on one of my two weblogs - then you don't even have to leave the site. Scroll down to the very bottom and you will find a perfect search engine, powered by Google.

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FACTS ABOUT IRELAND

The Emerald Isle

(also known as Ireland) has been inhabited by humans for at least 10,000 years. This image shows the topographical structure of the island, which was until recent times very important and decided in many cases where the people would build their settlements.The oldest surviving monuments in Ireland date from megalithic times between 5000 and 3500 BCE. About 200 BCE the Celts, familiar with the use of iron, conquered the island.

Around 1000 years later Viking raiders from Norway appeared, and in 914 they built the first city in Ireland, calling it "Vadra Fjord" (safe anchorage), which later became Waterford.In 1169 this city was the first to be taken by the Normans, when they invaded and conquered large parts of the island, including the capital Dublin.

In later centuries Ireland became more known for emigrants, as famine, poverty and oppression drove people out into the world. (About 45 million Americans have Irish ancestry.)However, since the unexpected economic boom (known as the "Celtic Tiger"), which we had for about a dozen years, there are now many immigrants on the Emerald Isle, coming from almost everywhere and turning the once quiet and introvert island into a vibrant international community.

Unfortunately the boom turned out to be only a bubble, based on false hopes, speculation and criminal gambling by reckless bankers. So now we are in a deep economic recession, which is made even worse by our current incompetent government.What will happen to Ireland in the future is hard to say, but it all will depend on making the right political, economic, and social decisions.

There is a realistic chance that Ireland could become a major producer of clean energy, and proposals have been presented already to the government and the public. It will now depend on our politicians to make the right decisions. If they do, then we can have a bright and promising future. If not, Ireland is in danger of becoming a poor third-world country.

Ireland's Countryside

is predominantly green. It is said that there are actually forty different shadesofgreen on the island, but few people go around counting.The landscape is rolling, with drumlins, hills and river valleys, and one is never far from the sea in Ireland.Ancient Stones like the one on this photo can be found in many parts of Ireland. They are the remnants of the old religion, which is once again growing on the Emerald Isle.

Ireland's National Flag

was first introduced during the uprising of 1848 in Waterford, Ireland's oldest city, by Thomas Francis Meagher, a native of the city who later rose to prominence as a Union General (and leader of the famous Irish Brigade) during the American Civil War (1861-65).An Bhratach Náisiúnta, as she is called in Irish, is a vertical (revolutionary) tricoleur, inspired by and modeled on the flag of the French Republic.The colours are green, white and orange. They represent the land and the predominantly Catholic nationalist majority (green), the protestant Anglo-Irish minority (orange), and the peace (white) that exists between them.

The flag was used by nationalists in private since 1848 and flown in public again during the Easter Rising of 1916 in Dublin. In 1919 she was adopted as the official flag of the Irish Republic.

Uachtarán na hÉireann

Prof. Mary McAleese is the 8th President of the Republic of Ireland. First elected to the office in 1997 as a representative of the majority government party Fianna Fáil, she is now in her second seven-year term, to which she was elected without opposition in 2004. She is the second female President of the Republic and currently also the longest-serving elected female head of state in the world. Born in Belfast, she encountered the Northern troubles first-hand and her Catholic family was forced out of their house by "loyalist" terrorists. After studying law in Belfast and Dublin, she qualifed as a barrister. In 1975 she was appointed a professor in the legal faculty of Trinity College, Dublin and in 1979 joined RTÉ television as a journalist and presenter. Since 1981 she combined both areas of work, but returned in 1987 to Belfast, as Director of the Institute of Professional Legal Studies at Queen's University, which appointed her Pro-Vice Chancellor in 1994.

An Taoiseach

Brian Cowen, TD is the 12th Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland and the 7th leader of the majority government party Fianna Fáil. In 1984, aged 24, he was elected to the Dáil in the constituency his father Bernhard, a local publican, had represented before. After 8 years in parliament, Cowen was appointed Minister for Labour in 1992. Since then he served as Minister for Transport, Energy and Communications, Minister for Health and Children, and - from 2000 to 2004 - as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Since 2005 Brian Cowen was Minister for Finance, and since 2007 also Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister). When Taoiseach Bertie Ahern declared his resignation on April 2nd, 2008, Cowen was elected unopposed as the new leader of Fianna Fáil on April 9th. On May 7th, 2008 Dáil Eireann elected him Taoiseach. He leads a coalition government inherited from Bertie Ahern and supported by the Green Party and four independent TDs. The now 48-year-old, sometimes referred to as 'Biffo', is married and father of two daughters. A keen Gaelic football fan, he also continues to be president of Clara GAA club.

The Parliament

of Ireland is known as the Houses of the Oireachtas. The House of Deputies (currently 166) is called Dáil Éireann, while 60 Senators form Seanad Éireann, the Senate. Both meet at Leinster House on Dublin's Kildare Street (above). The former city residence of the Duke of Leinster was sold in 1815 to the Royal Dublin Society (RDS) which added two new wings, to accomodate the National Library and the National Museum. After the formation of the Irish Free State in 1922 the central part was chosen as the provisional parliament chamber (until some proper building would be found). Despite plans to turn the Royal Hospital, Kilmainham, into the seat of the Oireachtas, it never happened. So Leinster House is still at the heart of Irish politics. And when Irish architect James Hoban designed the White House in Washington, D.C., he modeled it on Leinster House.

A few words about me

Having been born into an old European family (with 75% of the genes Celtic) I learned early that history and traditions are very important. After a quite turbulent childhood and youth, spent in different countries on three continents, I joined the Navy, served for many years in ships, other commands, and became a historian.
After leaving the Navy I worked in a museum and national monument, taught in school and college, edited a magazine and worked as journalist and broadcaster. Now I earn my crust as an independent consultant and analyst. In my scarce spare time I am involved in various social activities and charity work, write and read a lot, and sometimes even find time for painting.
My house is old and small, and I share it with a cat. Living a simple Spartan life, I eat vegetarian food and do not enjoy alcohol and most entertainments.
Life is too short to be wasted on fripperies. Every day is needed to do one's share - no matter how small it might be - to save the planet and its living creatures.

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The HSE, as seen by "Green Ink"

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