Round-up of first news clippings on ILRI-CCAFS ‘hotspots’ of climate change and food insecurity study

Below is a round-up of some of the first news clippings generated by the 3 June 2011 launch of an ILRI-CCAFS report, Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics, by Polly Ericksen, Philip Thornton, An Notenbaert, L Cramer, Peter Jones and Mario Herrero 2011. CCAFS Report no. 5 (advance copy). CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. The report is also available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org. Click here for the CCAFS online media room with more materials, including versions of the news release in English, Spanish, French and Chinese, and also versions of two maps in high resolution suitable for print media. All the maps will be made available online later this year; for more information on the maps, please contact ILRI’s Polly Ericksen at p.ericksen [at] cgiar.org or CCAFS’ Vanessa Meadu at ccafs.comms [at] gmail.com.

This study was led by scientists at the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) for the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). CCAFS is a strategic partnership of the CGIAR and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). CCAFS brings together the world’s best researchers in agricultural science, development research, climate science and Earth System science, to identify and address the most important interactions, synergies and tradeoffs between climate change, agriculture and food security. The CGIAR’s Lead Centre for the program is the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in Cali, Colombia. For more information, visit www.ccafs.cgiar.org.

Reuters (UK)Global study reveals climate picture of peril for millions of poor. Millions of people already living in poverty are on a collision course with hotter and more variable weather that threatens crop yields and livestock, a global study on climate change “hotspots” has found. The study released on Friday identifies regions where millions of people are already living close to the edge in terms of food security and then maps the expected impacts of changes in temperature, rainfall and other factors by 2050. The result is one of the most comprehensive studies of its type and highlights the countries most at risk from shorter and hotter growing seasons, changes in rainfall, entrenched poverty and growing populations.

Agence France Presse—English
Tropical ‘hotspots’ may get too warm to farm. Climate change is on track to disrupt lifeline food crops across large swathes of Africa and Asia already mired in chronic poverty, according to an international study released Friday. More than 350 million people face a “perfect storm” of conditions for potential food disaster, warns the report by scientists in the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Temperature increases projected by UN climate scientists could, by 2050, shorten growing seasons below critical thresholds, worsen weather variability, and render many regions dominated by subsistence farming unsuitable for key crops. If these areas have a history of persistent food shortages to begin with, the mix could be lethal.

Asia News International
Global ‘hotspots’ of climate-induced food insecurity includes India. A study has mapped global “hotspots” where climate-induced food insecurity is most likely to happen in the future, and it includes India. The study, ‘Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics’, was produced by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). The work was undertaken by a team of scientists responding to an urgent need to focus climate change adaptation efforts on people and places where the potential for harsher growing conditions poses the gravest threat to food production and food security. The researchers pinpointed areas of intense vulnerability by examining a variety of climate models and indicators of food problems to create a series of detailed maps.

BBC Online (UK)Climate to wreak havoc on food supply, predicts report. Areas where food supplies could be worst hit by climate change have been identified in a report. Some areas in the tropics face famine because of failing food production, an international research group says. The Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) predicts large parts of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will be worst affected. Its report points out that hundreds of millions of people in these regions are already experiencing a food crisis.

TIME Magazine’s ‘Ecocentric’ Blog
Tropical Hotspots Face Food Woes in a Warmer World. Thanks to the spring from hell—in the U.S., at least—much of the concern about climate change has shifted to the fear of the violent weather that could become the norm in a warmer world. (See Sharon Begley’s sobering take in Newsweek.) But while tornadoes and hurricanes and floods may get our attention, the greater threat from warming could be a quieter, slower and much less dramatic. For parts of the tropics and subtropics, the world in the future could be too warm to farm, with devastating humanitarian consequences for tens of millions of people, many of whom already live in poverty.

Guardian’s Poverty Matters Blog (UK)
Climate change in tropics poses food threat to poor. Higher temperatures will reduce growing seasons critical for crops needed to feed the world’s poor, a report says. Areas that will experience more than a 5% decrease in the length of the growing season, from the report Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics. Photograph: ccafs.cgiar.org. The shorter growing seasons expected with climate change over the next 40 years will imperil hundreds of millions of already impoverished people in the global tropics, say researchers working with the world’s leading agricultural organisations.
The effects of climate change are likely to be seen across the entire tropical zone but many areas previously considered to be relatively food secure are likely to become highly vulnerable to droughts, extreme weather and higher temperatures, say the researchers with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (Cgiar).

Nature Online (UK)
Hotspots vulnerable to climate change and food insecurity identified. People living in Africa and South Asia will be among the most vulnerable to food insecurity as the climate changes, new research shows. Growing seasons for staple crops such as maize will become shorter, hotter and drier in less than 40 years, severely limiting food production and imperilling the lives of millions of already impoverished people, says the study. The red areas are food-insecure and intensively farmed regions that are highly exposed to a potential 5% or greater reduction in the length of the growing season. For example, by 2050 the best growing conditions will drop below 120 days a season in intensively farmed regions of northeast Brazil and Mexico. But maize, other staple crops, and the vegetation on which livestock feed need at least 120 days to grow and mature. Likewise, parts of Latin America will suffer temperatures too hot for bean production, a major food staple in the region, finds the research. The study, Mapping Hotspots of Climate Change and Food Insecurity in the Global Tropics, was carried out by scientists from the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) – a group of world leading agri-science labs. (See Nature’s coverage of the potential impact of climate change on food production here and here.)

ABC Radio (Australia)
Climate change will cause food insecurity: study. Climate scientists and agricultural researchers have got together for the first time, producing a new study that identifies areas vulnerable to food insecurity from rising global temperatures—otherwise called ‘hot spots’. The study found that in some areas, the growing season will be cut by five per cent. That means current varieties of staples such as beans, maize and rice will no longer be viable. The study follows another report released this week by charity Oxfam, which predicted food prices could double in the next 20 years—in part because of a changing climate.

EcoBusiness
A study released today by international research NGO the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) found that over the next 40 years, over 369 million people—particularly those in India, China and sub-Saharan Africa living in primarily agricultural regions—will suffer significant impacts from shorter growing seasons and temperatures that exceed the threshholds of staple crops. The world’s rural poor will be the main victims of the resulting food shortages and price increases. According to IFAD, with one billion of the world’s most impoverished living in rural areas, the rural poor constitute the largest share of the earth’s undernourished people. But this same group of people holds the key to feeding the growing global population. With 80 per cent of the developing world’s rural dwellers involved in agriculture, smallholder farmers account for 60 per cent of global food production. In Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, 80 per cent of food consumed is grown by smallholders.

Monsters and Critics.com
Study: Climate change threatens food production. Climate change poses a threat to future food production in several regions of the world already suffering from ‘chronic food problems,’ a new study said Friday. Shorter, drier or hotter growing seasons – due to climate change – could result in lower production and yield of staple crops like maize and beans, the study said. By 2050, much of East and West Africa, India, and parts of Mexico and north-eastern Brazil could experience shorter growing seasons, affecting millions of people ‘already living on the edge.’ The study charted potential ‘hotspots’ using projections on climate change, including data from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and data on regions sensitive to climate shifts or where food insecurity exists. The findings were presented by the Copenhagen-based Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), part of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). Although CGIAR researchers are trying to develop crop varieties that can tolerate tougher growing conditions, such efforts might not be viable in some regions. In those cases, such as parts of East and Southern Africa, farmers would likely need to replace the staple crop maize with sorghum or cassava. Other solutions included integrating livestock and agroforestry to maintain or boost food production, the study said.

Thinq (UK)
Millions face starvation due to climate change: New study highlights crisis in Africa and Asia. Climate change could see hundreds of millions in Africa and Asia facing starvation, according to a new international study. The Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) study is the result of a ten-year collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), and highlights areas that will be hardest hit by rising temperatures caused by global warming. According to the CCAFS, areas around the tropics including swathes of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa face famine due to crop failures. The report found that hundreds of millions living in the areas are already being hit by what it terms a ‘food crisis’.

PhysOrg.com
Rising temperatures threaten a food crisis. A recent study reports that the geographical range of some agricultural crops—such as corn and beans—may be greatly reduced if temperatures continue to rise. While some farmers may be able to readjust what they grow, others may have to give up, producing a disaster. Food prices have been rising, and climate change is likely to have a larger effect on food production in the future. These issues might be expected in southern Asia and Africa, but if temperatures keep rising, even places now reasonably secure such as China and Latin America could face a food crisis within two generations. The study was published by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, a non-governmental research organization.