Analyst predicts 2.8 million Mac quarter ahead of earnings report

In a note to investors yesterday, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster cited NPD's latest sales estimates for July, August, and September, and thinks Apple's quarterly and yearly earnings call today will paint a rosy picture. Apple should easily top Q3 sales results for Macs, with Munster expecting as many as 2.8 million Macs sold. He also estimates 11 million iPods and 5 million iPhones sold.

Munster's analysis of the NPD numbers suggest Apple will report between 2.7 and 2.8 million Macs sold in Q3. That will meet or beat Wall Street estimates of 2.7 million. September year-over-year growth is expected to be around 19 percent, which is lower than August's 23 percent and July's outstanding 43 percent. With the recent economic downturn and new notebook designs expected, this comes as little surprise. "The months of August and September were tough year-over-year compares, as new iMacs were introduced in August 2007, but new Macs were not introduced until [October] in 2008," Munster explained in his report. "Also, it appears that the weak consumer environment is negatively impacting Apple's business."

iPod sales should clock in at 11 million, which should also beat Wall Street predictions. Though growth has slowed significantly for iPods, selling 11 million still represents a 7 percent year-over-year increase, which Munster notes should be seen as a positive. Apple is also expected to report sales of about 5 million iPhones in the last quarter, leaving them only 2.5 million away from their goal of 10 million iPhone sales in 2008.

All told, it looks to be another great quarter for Apple. And though there is plenty of doom and gloom predicted for many companies due to the current state of the economy, Apple should be able to hold its own. "The company has recently leveraged its unit volumes in the iPod, Mac, and iPhone businesses to lower prices moderately while generally maintaining margins," said Munster.

Be sure to keep an eye out for our coverage of the earnings report later today on the front page, with additional analysis from the call on Infinite Loop.