Mitt’s mood--First look at $10.5 million in Crossroads ads--Obama up 6 in Oregon--Could take days to know Ohio winner--Foster attacked over divorce

DAYTON, Ohio—Mitt Romney confessed yesterday afternoon that he sometimes struggles to unwind. “I get so much energy from you, by the way, that at the end of the day, it takes me a long time to slow down and fall asleep,” he told a crowd at Seven Cities Sod in Davenport, Iowa. “Alright? I love what I get to do. I am so excited about the American people.” It was the most unintentionally revealing thing that the governor has said on the trail in weeks, a rare window into his state of mind and a reminder of how much intense personal pressure he must feel not to lose as he submits himself to the whims of fickle voters. “I also want you to know how optimistic I am,” Romney added. “I wouldn’t be doing what I am doing if I were a pessimist, alright? This job is quite an undertaking.”

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SANDY, DAY TWO: Romney spent another night in another city he had not planned to. The devastation from Sandy will again distract from the campaign and captivate television audiences, putting the race on ice (but not really) a week before the election and testing the mettle of both candidates. The federal government in D.C. will stay closed, as will D.C.'s public transit system. President Obama will stay at the White House. Romney, who canceled his events, will try his hand at a “storm relief event” event near here mid-morning. It will probably be carefully choreographed and fine, but there’s inherent risk. This all throws a wrench in carefully laid plans, but it will still take a little while to know how many days are going to be lost. Yet there’s no doubt that the clean-up will be a top story at least through Election Day. Jon Allen writes on the effort of both campaigns to not look like they’re being political: http://goo.gl/o6Rt8.

THE TRAIL TODAY—All four principals canceled campaign events in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. Here’s the latest on what they will be doing instead—

OBAMA at the WHITE HOUSE. No public schedule.

ROMNEY in OHIO: The governor will be joined by Richard Petty and Randy Owen for “a storm relief event” at the Trent Arena in nearby Kettering at 11 ET. He will then go to Tampa ahead of a Wednesday morning airport rally with Connie Mack: http://goo.gl/D6Zf4.

BIDEN in OHIO and FLORIDA: The Vice President is in Columbus. In the afternoon, he will travel to Sarasota, where he will remain overnight.

RYAN in WISCONSIN: The congressman will drop by the victory centers in La Crosse at 2:20 CT and Hudson at 5:15 CT, where he will thank volunteers who are delivering or collecting items for storm relief efforts. All Wisconsin Victory Centers will collect donations for storm relief efforts today and tomorrow.

CLINTON in MINNESOTA: The rally at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis is at 9:30 a.m. CDT. Then he goes north to Duluth for a rally at UMD, where he will aim to fire up youth and labor support.

ANN in WISCONSIN and IOWA: She visits victory offices in Green Bay, Davenport and Cedar Rapids, where she will participate in storm relief collection efforts. She then attends a Victory Rally at the Temple for the Performing Arts in Des Moines at 6 CT.

COUNTDOWN: 7 days.

THE MOMENT—THREE POLLS SHOW A NATIONAL TIE:

The Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation Poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling, shows Obama and Romney tied at 49. Obama’s up 59-41 among those who have already voted. Romney’s up 53-44 among those who plan to vote on Election Day. First in Score: http://goo.gl/NqygI.

EXCLUSIVE ON THE FINAL CROSSROADS BLITZ—American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS will spend $10.5 million on Senate TV ads starting Tuesday and Wednesday. It is the largest one week effort by the conservative super PAC and its non-profit affiliate on Senate ads this cycle, and we think the largest one week buy of any group in the Senate this cycle. In addition to the spots below, which go on the air today, Crossroads GPS will start in New Mexico and American Crossroads will start in Nebraska and Indiana on Wednesday. Here’s the messaging in each—

MONTANA—TESTER HAS BECOME A WASHINGTON INSIDER: "Jon Tester voted for $6 trillion in new debt, $1.8 trillion Obamacare," the text of the ad says. "Jon Tester as voted with Barack Obama 95% of the time. Washington changed Jon Tester." Crossroads: http://bit.ly/V23fGz

WISCONSIN—BALDWIN IS AN EXTREMIST: "Are extreme politicians like Tammy Baldwin really making a difference? So far Tammy's voted to raise taxes, to cut $700 billion from Medicare spending, for trillions in new debt, and Washington is more broken than ever." Crossroads: http://bit.ly/QQZ2Bd

MAINE—KING IS AN INFLUENCE PEDDLER: "We've seen how Angus King blew it for Maine, using his influence on a government task force to help windmill companies like his. As governor, King slashed funding for our schools and pushed job-killing tax increases." Crossroads GPS: http://bit.ly/QQZfnV.

VIRGINIA—KAINE CREATED THE PROBLEM: "Barack Obama or Tim Kaine, which one ran up spending, blowing massive holes in the budget ... the answer is Obama and Kaine. How can Kaine fix the mess in Washington when he helped create it?" GPS: http://bit.ly/V24iGD.

NORTH DAKOTA—HEITKAMP WOULD BE A ROADBLOCK TO REFORM: "If Mitt Romney is president, we can get our country back on track -- but not with Heidi Heitkamp in the Senate. ... We're so close to moving this country forward. Why elect a roadblock like Heidi Heitkamp?" GPS: http://bit.ly/V24YM5.

NEVADA—BERKLEY PLAGUED BY SCANDAL: "Unethical: lacking integrity. Synonym: Shelley Berkley. Berkley's been caught three times in scandals: first, urging her boss to buy off politicians with cash, then pushing a judge to go easy on a convicted criminal, a big campaign donor to Berkley. Now, Berkley's under a bipartisan investigation for enriching herself in office." GPS: http://bit.ly/QR068h.

INDIANA—DONNELLY AD USES MOURDOCK RAPE COMMENTS: "Richard Mourdock’s opinions: Pregnancy cause by rape is something 'God intended.' He says Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional," the new ad from Donnelly's campaign says. "He attacks jobs creation, saying he 'didn’t take a pledge that I would support every job in Indiana.' ... My way or the highway, the wrong way for Indiana." http://bit.ly/Tl5EWp

NORTH DAKOTA—HEITKAMP GOES DIRECT TO CAMERA: "When you grow up in a place like Mantador, you realize later how lucky you were -- like having a dad who built this ball field, and a mom who made sure every kid got to play on it," Heitkamp says in the new ad. "I learned how schools and tractors and guns were all part of how we lived, and that we vote for the person, not the party." http://bit.ly/Sr269x

WISCONSIN –

THOMPSON HITS ON SPENDING, MEDICARE: "Tammy Baldwin voted to raise the debt ceiling seven times, putting every Wisconsin child $50,000 in debt," the new ad out from Tommy Thompson's campaign says. "Baldwin voted to waste $800 billion on the stimulus, leaving one in eight Wisconsin workers looking for jobs. To pay for the waste Baldwin voted to cut Medicare for Wisconsin seniors and to raise taxes on middle class Wisconsin families. Tammy Baldwin hasn't been for Wisconsin, ever.

BALDWIN BRINGS IN CLINTON FOR CONTRAST SPOT: Tammy Baldwin is out with a new ad that features former President Bill Clinton speaking on her behalf. "One big difference between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson is that she stood up to the special interests and he stood up for them. If you put people first, it works better than trickle-down economics." Watch the ad: http://bit.ly/QQYwmX

NEVADA – HELLER HITS BERKELEY FOR ITALY TRIP: “Shelley Berkley and her husband took a trip to Italy,” the ad’s narrator says. “They stayed at the finest hotels, ate at exclusive restaurants with Washington lobbyists, rode gondolas, attended the opera – and the best part? Shelley Berkley sent the $55,000 bill for their trip to the taxpayers.” http://bit.ly/TQCOhb

EXPANDING THE MAP? –

PENNSYLVANIA: The Romney super PAC, Restore our Future, goes on the air today with a $2.1 million ad buy across every market in the state ( http://politi.co/V1TsQT). The buy prompted the Obama campaign to say they will respond with their own ad buy ( http://politi.co/QQU3AG). Watch to see if Romney thinks it’s close enough to actually visit, something complicated by Sandy.

MINNESOTA: Bill Clinton holds two campaign events Tuesday in Minnesota for Obama in a state long assumed safe for Democrats after a Star Tribune poll last weekend showed the race within the margin of error ( http://goo.gl/soRKa). Yesterday, ABC moved Pennsylvania and Minnesota from “safe” to “lean Obama”: http://goo.gl/UdNSv. This morning Mark Halperin discussed on “Morning Joe” how the Democrats are playing more defense than they expected: http://goo.gl/c6Zv6.

OREGON: Also exciting Boston this morning is an unexpected poll that popped in The Oregonian newspaper showing Obama up just six points, 47 percent to 41 percent ( http://goo.gl/zeMa9). It’s another blue state Obama is likely to end up carrying, but the GOP loves the idea that there will be buzz about whether Romney is in striking distance.

ROMNEY TALKERS—

WHY MITT’S TALK OF BIPARTISANSHIP IS DUBIOUS: “First and foremost: Romney’s ‘readiness’ team has been meeting with national Republicans in Washington about the GOP nominee’s No. 1 campaign promise: how he’ll repeal President Barack Obama’s health care law…that will hardly foster the bipartisan atmosphere that Romney has recently lauded,” Jake Sherman and James write. “Romney’s team would like Congress to pass a package of targeted reductions of already approved spending soon after the Republican is installed in the White House…But Democrats have been cool to the idea of additional spending cuts without revenue increases. If Romney is elected, his team wants Congress to use the lame-duck session before he is inaugurated to extend funding for the government past March…Even Republicans concede this would be a tall task…That’s all on top of fights over automatic defense spending cuts, debating how to deal with expiring tax rates for all Americans and renewing the reimbursement formula for doctors who treat Medicare patients.” http://goo.gl/Hnn8r

BAIN IS BACK IN THREE NEW ANTI-ROMNEY ADS: “The late emphasis on Bain, Democratic strategists say, reflects both the potency of Bain as an attack against Romney in general, and the pivotal significance of Midwestern states such as Ohio where the Bain message is especially resonant,” Alex Burns and Maggie Haberman report. http://goo.gl/ehxI0

THE PATH TO 270—

IN OHIO AD, OBAMA REFUTES ROMNEY JEEP CLAIMS: “When the auto industry faced collapse, Mitt Romney turned his back," a narrator says. “Even the conservative Detroit News criticized Romney for his ‘wrong-headedness’ on the bailout. And now, after Romney’s false claim of Jeep outsourcing to China, Chrysler itself has refuted Romney’s lie.” Byron Tau: “The dispute stems from a line Romney used during a speech last week that insinuated that Jeep might move U.S. jobs abroad. Currently, Jeeps are produced in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio — but the company is looking to perhaps add an additional production line abroad.” Watch: http://goo.gl/GNTBR. The New York Times fronts an auto bailout story today: http://goo.gl/fZMAO.

SWING STATE HEADLINES—

Cleveland Plain Dealer: “Provisional ballots could keep Ohio’s presidential outcome in doubt for days after election.”http://goo.gl/9iKT7

Orlando Sentinel: “Political tensions run high in The Villages between Obama, Romney supporters”: http://goo.gl/DJrUx. The New York Times runs a story on nasty fights over signs in south Florida: http://goo.gl/gU3Tp.

The New York Times editorial board uses the storm to tout the virtues of Big Government: http://goo.gl/0AUA4.

Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen: “The president who seems not to care.” http://goo.gl/yzHeI

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MASSACHUSETTS SENATE – BROWN, WARREN CANCEL DEBATE: The two candidates say they’ll cancel or postpone their debate today in the wake of Sandy. Per the Boston Globe: “Senator Scott Brown, citing the danger posed by Hurricane Sandy, has pulled out of his fourth and final debate with Elizabeth Warren, which was scheduled to take place Tuesday evening in Boston and be broadcast live on television. … In a statement, Warren campaign manager Mindy Myers agreed with not debating Tuesday, but sounded open to a possible rescheduling.” http://bo.st/QQTnek

MISSOURI SENATE -- MCCASKILL’S MOTHER DIES AT 84: “Betty Anne Ward McCaskill, the mother of Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill and a political trailblazer in her own right, died Monday at her home in St. Louis after a long struggle with heart and kidney problems, the senator said,” per the AP. “The first-term Democratic senator, who is locked in a close re-election race with Republican Rep. Todd Akin, had canceled most of her campaign events starting last week to spend time with her 84-year-old mother.” http://apne.ws/QQTre8

ARIZONA SENATE—REPUBLIC CRITICIZE CARMONA AD: Republicans are pointing to a new editorial from Arizona Republic, the state’s biggest newspaper, as evidence that Carmona’s ad featuring past compliments from John McCain and Jon Kyl is backfiring. "But while the ad was a gambit, the Carmona campaign's response to McCain and Kyl's righteous anger has been pure idiocy,” the paper, which has endorsed Flake, writes. “The fake endorsements were bad. The defense of the ad made it worse. Time for a do-over." http://goo.gl/aPV2M

VIRGINIA SENATE—ALLEN ASKS FOR EMERGENCY DONATIONS: “Just as the outer ring of Sandy began to pelt Virginia Monday morning, George Allen sent a curiously timed e-mail to supporters seeking ‘emergency’ donations,” per Dave Catanese “Please make an emergency donation … I need your help NOW… I MUST raise $112,000 immediately to pay for more television ads,” Allen wrote. Pleading for funds late in the game is nothing new, but invoking the word “emergency” in the middle of a real state of emergency is questionable judgment at best. Allen’s opponent Tim Kaine has suspended all fundraising appeals to Virginians for now. The Kaine campaign last blasted an appeal on midday Saturday.”

ILLINOIS FIRST LOOK—STATE PARTY WILL ATTACK FOSTER OVER DIVORCE: Last night, the Illinois Republican Party began putting out robocalls to nearly 100,000 independent, soft Democrat and hard Democrat female voters in the 11th District to coincide with the launch of BillFosterAbuse.com. They are going up today with online banner ads. They say polling shows the race between Bill Foster, who lost in 2010, and Republican incumbent Congresswoman Judy Biggert as neck-and-neck. Republican Party volunteers will stake out a Foster early voting rally in Aurora later to pass out copies of an old divorce filing that included allegations of domestic abuse. Their survey data indicates that it will resonate with female swing voters. These allegations have been brought up and fought over in Foster’s past races. Here’s a web video the online ads will link to: http://goo.gl/nD4PS.

THE HOUSE—YG NETWORK BUYS RADIO FOR SCHILLING, DUFFY: Two women talk about freshman Republican Sean Duffy (WI-7) being part of a young generation of fresh leaders, note that he’s cute and say he gets it. They say Democrat Pat Kreitlow is radical. One-minute spot from the conservative super PAC: http://goo.gl/8kBRf. The second ad talks about Bobby Schilling making some of the best pizza in Moline and describes him as a small business owner who gets it: http://goo.gl/uOSxR.

LIGHTER CLICKS—

Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart both canceled the live tapings of their shows.

CODA – QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I recall a line in a fictional football team show. It was called ‘Friday Night Lights,’ you probably didn’t see it. But – you did, alright. She saw it! They had this fictional football team and every time they’d leave the locker room, and they typically were facing long odds, there was a sign up there, it said ‘Clear eyes, Full hearts, Can’t lose.’” – Romney in Iowa http://goo.gl/dmGlu

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Authors:

About The Author

James Hohmann is a reporter for POLITICO Pro.

He covered the 2012 presidential campaign from start to finish, authoring the daily Morning Score tipsheet for nearly two years as he reported from 23 states over the course of the primaries and general election. Through the fall, he traveled with Mitt Romney.

Hohmann spent 2010 chronicling the Republican Party’s drive to win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

He arrived from The Washington Post at the end of 2009. Previously he wrote for the Los Angeles Times Washington bureau, the Dallas Morning News and The San Jose Mercury News.

An honors graduate of Stanford University, Hohmann studied American political history. He served as editor-in-chief of The Stanford Daily and wrote an award-winning thesis about the 1976 Republican primaries and the political ascendancy of Ronald Reagan.

Hohmann grew up in Apple Valley, Minn.

About The Author

Emily Schultheis is a national political reporter and author of POLITICO Pro’s daily Morning Score tipsheet. She joined POLITICO as a 2010 summer intern, then filed stories on the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate and gubernatorial races and the 2012 election throughout her senior year at the University of Pennsylvania. Since arriving full-time at POLITICO in summer 2011, Schultheis spent the 2012 cycle writing for the “Burns & Haberman” blog and traveling the country with different presidential candidates. She took over Morning Score in January 2013.

In summer 2013, Schultheis was one of ten American journalists selected for the Arthur F. Burns Fellowship, an international reporting program for young journalists. She spent two months covering the German election in Berlin for POLITICO and SPIEGEL International.

Schultheis began covering politics for The Daily Pennsylvanian, Penn’s student-run newspaper, in 2008, trailing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton throughout Philadelphia during the lead-up to the Pennsylvania primary. Her work has also appeared in the Philadelphia Daily News, Philadelphia City Paper and UWIRE’s Youth Vote ‘08 blog. She graduated summa cum laude from Penn with a degree in English literature in May 2011.

Schultheis, originally from the San Francisco Bay area, now lives in Arlington.