Thursday, June 9, 2011

GOP candidates unpopular at home

We've done polls in Massachusetts and Minnesota over the last couple weeks and found that Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, and Michele Bachmann are all unpopular in their home states. That's par for the course with this GOP Presidential field- we've polled on 9 of the candidates or potential candidates in their home states and only one of them is well liked- Gary Johnson in New Mexico.

That's probably not a good sign for any of these candidates. If the voters who know them best don't care for them, why would others around the country? Certainly you don't have to be popular in your home state to get elected President but it would be a good sign if you were.

It is possible to win the Presidency without winning one's "own" state -- as Al Gore came close to doing in 2000. I am not surprised that Mitt Romney fares badly in Massachusetts and that Tim Pawlenty fares badly in Minnesota; they became Governors when conservative 'solutions' suddenly became popular. Such solutions, when put into practice, have faded in attractiveness in liberal-leaning states.

Rick Perry? Maybe Texans are getting tired of him. That happens over time.

LOL! I can tell your polls are bogus because it's not possible for Rick Perry to have a -8 rating in Texas UNLESS YOUR SAMPLING IS WAY OFF. This is to manipulate public opinion. Of course you do know how to sample correctly but only when election time comes around to obtain more accurate results to acheive an acceptable reputation.

I'm from Texas and don't like Perry. So I wouldn't say it's too far off as most I've talked to lean slightly more toward not liking him. He got re-elected as the better of two options. That is just my opinion though and should be taken as just that, opinion.

@Stephen - I'd be interested to see statewide polling data for Dr. Paul as well. As far as your stats go, one district does not a state make, but neither does one decision a Presidency make(Obama and OBL's death).

"BTW, Have you polled Johnson vs Obama in N.M. I would be interested to see the results after seeing this poll."

All of these numbers come from polls taken earlier this year. In early Feb., Obama was beating Johnson, 51-36, but that's better than any of the other Republicans did. Romney was down 16, Huckabee 19, Gingrich 21, and Palin 29.

I guess that means he has at least some crossover support there. Also not bad for a 2:1 Dem state getting a better than 1.5:1 vote. Closer to the Primary there and depending on how the economy fairs there, he could do rather well considering the other 13% undecided and polling margin of error. I think if Johnson get the nomination. N.M. may come into play as a toss up. However, with only 5 electoral votes, I doubt that would make a big difference.

I'd also like to see how he fairs in a large liberal state like CA once his name recognition gets up more and with the economic/budget issues it's having. Being able to take a state like that(55 electoral votes) would give him a serious shot at beating Obama in the general. Of course that is all speculative.

I think it's obvious why Dr. Paul was excluded - his numbers would defeat the thesis. The poll report title is intended to create public perception that the Republican field has nobody in it that can win. Dr. Paul's numbers defeat the thesis, so they were omitted. I wonder if PPP actually polled for him and left them out or decided not to poll for him based on the general knowledge of his high approval rating at home. He's a real contender by the vast majority of straw and telephone polls - certainly rating much higher than some of the candidates included here - so that can't be the reason for the omission. PPP can go ahead and prove me wrong, though (but I expect this comment will just get deleted since they seem to want to shape opinion).

Not a lot of "if's" just one big one. However, he has overcome that one on a state level before.

With Rick Perry now likely to enter the race, I'm curious as what a Texas GOP nomination poll will say especially if it's just Perry vs Paul. Texas would be the only state with to home-field advantage candidates wouldn't it?

I will concede that he would have problems in the more conservative parts of the South than other Republicans. However, with Republican heavy South, the question becomes can they over-look the social issues in order to defeat Obama?

Governor Johnson was a Republican governor that won over his Democratic state not once but twice. That is the point Kreationz was trying to make.

Progressives who rightfully feel betrayed by Obama would do themselves and the nation a favor by supporting Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, both of whom will enact policy, domestic and foreign, that would save our economy and both of whom are strong champions of civil liberties and economic freedom. If you're against these things, why are you an American? Better yet, why are you running the country? (I'm talkin to you, continuing-endless-war-not-closing-guantanamo-bay-PATRIOT ACT-extender-torture-apologizer-hypocrite Obama!)

Who's in charge here? There's a man named Ron Paul. Heard of him? He's running for President. Rick perry is not running for president. Have you considered including Ron Paul? Hello? Anyone home? McFly?

There's a person you seemed to forget. His name is Ron Paul. Heard of him? He's running for president. Perry is not running for president. Who's in charge here? Anyone home? Hello? McFly? Ron Paul presidential candidate

Correction: An earlier version of this article listed incorrect favorable and job approval ratings in Paul's internal polling.

This is posted at the bottom of the article that people are quoting about Ron Paul. I like Ron Paul, but Gary Johnson is a far better candidate. He is the first candidate that I am finding myself wanting and willing to campaign for. Johnson 1012

When I said "one big one", there was several smaller ones mixed in to it. The "big one" is if he gets the nomination, which I'm confident as he overcomes the smaller "if's" he will. He had to do all that to go from an unknown to get the GOP nod for Governor. Only time will tell if he can do it again to get the GOP nod for President. He's overcome a lot of obstacles in his life. And me, I'm a supporter and I know I'll be doing everything I can to try to make that happen.

Clearly, clearly, clearly Ron Paul was left out of this poll so that the author could promote his version of reality. This is plain and simple intellectual dishonesty. I'm growing very weary of people stating the facts that fit with their agenda. Politicians lie and and political writers lie. No wonder our county is what it is instead of what it could and should be.

No doubt Ron is popular in his district, but I'd like to see some statewide numbers as well for him. Why does he continually run for Rep. when a senate seat hold's more power? I thought he should have made the switch a long while back. Being from Texas he would have had my vote for that. I'm not from his district however.

I like Johnson. I also like Ron Paul, and worked for him in 2008. It is telling that out of all the candidates, Paul's numbers were left out of this comparison. I suspect that 's because he probably polls close to Johnson in New Mexico.