49. Derrick Favors, Brook Lopez (tie)
It's all about Favors having an "NBA body" right now; we're not allowed to rush to a final judgment even though a 19-year-old lottery pick is forgettable night after night after night in a Kwame-ish way. I caught him twice in person: He bombed the "If I'm Seeing You Live, No Matter How Young You Are, I Shouldn't Be Able to Zone Out And Forget That You're Allegedly Doing Your Specialty In Front Of Me" test. (Important note: Same goes for Broadway actors, musicians, belly dancers, comedians, politicians and chefs at those Japanese restaurants at which they cook for 10-12 people at a time.) It's not like he's any younger than DeMarcus Cousins. Shouldn't Favors be showing something by now?

As for Lopez, he stopped rebounding (8.1 as a rookie, 8.7 in Year 2, 5.7 this season), stopped attacking the rim (6.6 shots at the rim last season, 4.3 this season) and plays with the enthusiasm of someone who just got dumped by his girlfriend and wants the game to end as soon as possible so he can go home and fill a pink iPod with sappy love songs for her. I would have bounced him off the list entirely, but there's a small chance Avery Johnson's voice is affecting him the same way Mary Hart's voice affected Kramer.

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46. DeMarcus Cousins
So rarely in sports does someone live up to the hype. We thought Notorious D.M.C. could be a dominant scorer/rebounder AND a once-in-a-generation head case who immediately polarized fans and media members … yes and yes! In the past three weeks alone, he dropped a 27-10 on the Lakers, a 25-14 on Utah, a 19-15 on Dallas and a few punches on teammate Donte Greene's head, then subsequently got banned from a team plane and suspended. I want the opposite of a full refund for the DMC Experience. I'd like to pay twice. Let's run it back. And by the way? If I were a GM, I'd be calling Sacramento every day trying to get him. Repeat: Every day. You just never know when you might catch Geoff Petrie in a moment of weakness. It's coming.

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What jumps out? First, the durable guys remained durable throughout their careers, with just one exception: McHale, who ruined the second half of his career by bravely (and some would say foolishly) playing on a broken foot in the 1987 playoffs. Second, anyone who missed more than 80 games and couldn't play in 90 percent of the games in at least four of their first six seasons went on to have injury-plagued careers. (That includes Shaq, who played more than 68 games in a season just six times and missed an average of 18 games per season.) And third, if you can't stay on the court at your youngest/healthiest/freshest/most energetic, it's a pretty safe bet that things won't change as you get older. It's straight DNA: Some dudes are structurally built for 82-game NBA seasons, others aren't. So if you make the argument "If Bynum can stay healthy, he's a franchise center," just make sure you also mention that we have 35 years of evidence that there's a tipping point when "If he can stay healthy …" becomes "… he's not going to stay healthy." We're there with Andrew Bynum. He's not going to stay healthy. If I were the Lakers, I would trade him right now.

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9. Pau Gasol
A few weeks ago, Kobe explained Gasol's latest funk like this: "Even when [Pau] was in Memphis and he was the go-to guy, he was always very nice. Very white swan. I need him to be black swan."

I thought this was funny for a variety of reasons, mainly that Kobe thought it was a good idea to compare his best teammate to a psychological ballet thriller that features an explicit lesbian sex scene, but also because you could tie it to Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "The Black Swan." Taleb considered a "black swan event" an impact event that came by surprise, but that after it happened, everyone tried to rationalize that they knew it was coming (or that they should have known it was coming) by going backward and reexamining the available signs. Taleb believes most major events in history are unexpected, but humans can't accept that: We can't control random events, and when things are out of our control, we get nervous. We'd rather think we could control them. You know, kind of like Kobe and Jackson with Gasol. They think they can control his funks by lighting a fire under him, questioning his energy, pushing for MORE from him … and invariably, they're right. He's averaging a 21-9 and shooting 60 percent this month. There is nothing random about Pau Gasol: He averages an 18-10 and shoots 52 percent year after year, and at least once a season he needs to be kicked in the butt. He's neither a black swan nor a black swan event. By the way, don't mix Red Bull and Zithromax.

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4. Derrick Rose
I still have him as the MVP. If you disagree, go look at the standings, try to find me 10 games in which Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah played together, then watch Keith Bogans play for 10 minutes. Derrick Rose did more for that team through the first 50 games than anyone else did for their team; doesn't make him the best player, just the most valuable. At least so far. Of course, we can't sleep on this scenario, courtesy of Tim in Troy:

"I think we could have a Hakeem Olajuwon/David Robinson situation brewing with the 2011 MVP: What if Rose gets presented with the trophy in front of LeBron before a Bulls-Heat Round 2 playoff game? I picture a standard LeBron Eff You game (40, 10 and 10, five mean dunks, sits for the fourth quarter) making Hakeem's shakedown of The Admiral look like a birthday present."

Great call. Yet here's the difference between Rose and Robinson: Rose would get ticked off by the Eff You performance, try to match it … and then it would be on like Donkey Kong. Have I mentioned how excited I am for the 2011 playoffs? I've mentioned that, right? We're definitely getting Boston-Chicago, Boston-Miami or Chicago-Miami in Round 2. Round 2!!!! Any one of those three matchups will be old-school, '80s-style, no-handshaking bloodbaths. I can't wait for the refs to get overprotective and screw it up.

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3. Kevin Durant
With LeBron splitting shots with the other MoHeatos, it's hard to foresee a situation in which KD's 30 a game wouldn't take the scoring title year after year after year until he got bored … and that's assuming 30 is his ceiling, when actually -- if Oklahoma City added a low-post threat and Durant bumped up his 3-point shooting (34 percent right now) -- he could climb to 33-34 pretty soon. (The record: MJ and Wilt both won seven straight scoring titles.) So worst-case scenario, barring injury, he'll be a rich man's George Gervin.

And with that said …

Remember this past September. Turkey? The Baster Game? Why did so many Team USA guys make a leap afterward (Rose, Westbrook, ***, Love, Chandler, Odom, etc.) and Durant went sideways? Am I picking nits? Were my expectations too high? Are his teammates worse than we realize? Did he already HAVE his leap, and that's as far as we're going? You'd think Westbrook's leap would have facilitated a second mini-leap from Durant, right? And further--

plenty of teams will make offers without a extension on the table just for a rental

Sure, you can make an offer for the rental, but you're not going to mortgage your future for a single run. You only do that when you know you're going to have a superstar locked up for half a decade or more. You're not going to get much more than an Omri Casspi and protected 1st for a 3 month rental like that.

Sure, you can make an offer for the rental, but you're not going to mortgage your future for a single run. You only do that when you know you're going to have a superstar locked up for half a decade or more. You're not going to get much more than an Omri Casspi and protected 1st for a 3 month rental like that.

Exactly, without an extension most teams are going to be extremely hesitant about giving serious long term assets, meaning it's highly unlikely Denver gets an offer that even beats NY's initial offer of Wilson, instant savings and picks, at least not significantly.

__________________
BK

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Originally Posted by AcheTen

JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham

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Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.

Exactly, without an extension most teams are going to be extremely hesitant about giving serious long term assets, meaning it's highly unlikely Denver gets an offer that even beats NY's initial offer of Wilson, instant savings and picks, at least not significantly.

You say Melo is worthless because he needs an extension....yet completely ******* ignore that Chandler is a RFA at the end of the year.

Yeah but being an RFA means he can't go anywhere unless his team lets him. Carmelo does not have that restriction.

No...just means that they can match any deal he gets on the open market. Obviously it is way better than UFA status....but Denver would have to pay the open market salary for Chandler(if they wanted to keep him)....which they could do without the trade.

So are the Heat overrated for people tagging them as winning the east this year and 7 championships, when they havent even beat the celtics, let alone even played for a championship yet?

And we are bowing down to the greatness of the heat?

Yes, some1 used my phrase!!!!! I just don't get it tho. Here is what kind of pisses me off about the Lakers. If my Heat lose back to back games to the Bobcats and the Cavs (which would never happen cuz LeBron would not take a game off against the Cavs), but lets just say we did. People would not be giving excuses, people would not be asking if the Heat are bored. There are still people saying that, granted most people are reacting the way I do. U know like they need to get rid of Artest, the need a younger PG, they need Melo, and all that noise. But it just kinda irks me that people just say, ahhh the Lakers took the games off, it apathy, thats their problem. That would never happen for the Heat. All sorts of **** would happen.

Yes, some1 used my phrase!!!!! I just don't get it tho. Here is what kind of pisses me off about the Lakers. If my Heat lose back to back games to the Bobcats and the Cavs (which would never happen cuz LeBron would not take a game off against the Cavs), but lets just say we did. People would not be giving excuses, people would not be asking if the Heat are bored. There are still people saying that, granted most people are reacting the way I do. U know like they need to get rid of Artest, the need a younger PG, they need Melo, and all that noise. But it just kinda irks me that people just say, ahhh the Lakers took the games off, it apathy, thats their problem. That would never happen for the Heat. All sorts of **** would happen.

That's because the Lakers have "earned" that benefit of the doubt by winning the past two NBA championships. The Heat haven't earned ****.

You say Melo is worthless because he needs an extension....yet completely ******* ignore that Chandler is a RFA at the end of the year.

The problem with Melo is that if he doesn't sign the extension it's probably because he's going to walk as an UFA, Wilson isn't going to get a max offer from every team on the first day of free agency and so Denver only needs to match one offer for him rather than battling off every other team that's interested in Will on the open market. Melo without an extension means a couple months of melo is all you're getting, the same is not true of Wilson Chandler.

__________________
BK

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen

JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham

Quote:

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.

The problem with Melo is that if he doesn't sign the extension it's probably because he's going to walk as an UFA, Wilson isn't going to get a max offer from every team on the first day of free agency and so Denver only needs to match one offer for him rather than battling off every other team that's interested in Will on the open market. Melo without an extension means a couple months of melo is all you're getting, the same is not true of Wilson Chandler.

Well, the way it works....every team can make an offer("battle for") to Chandler...he chooses which one to accept...and then Denver could choose to match or not. So Chandler would still be getting the highest deal possible that he could on the open market...Denver could just choose to match or not.

Well, the way it works....every team can make an offer("battle for") to Chandler...he chooses which one to accept...and then Denver could choose to match or not. So Chandler would still be getting the highest deal possible that he could on the open market...Denver could just choose to match or not.

So you're point is that they'll have to pay Chandler what he's worth and are guaranteed his services instead of having to convince him that they're offer is better than other teams' offers? Yeah they'll have to pay chandler, but do you really see him getting some colossal, team crippling deal?

__________________
BK

Quote:

Originally Posted by AcheTen

JPP is a better and more productive player than Brandon Graham

Quote:

Originally Posted by abaddon41_80

Is Shaun Hill a top 10 QB? Definitely not. Is he a top 20 one? Almost certainly.