His first good season at the age of 28 merits the title, one of the "elite power OFers"?

B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's

Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games??

AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games??

Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't

B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's

AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games??

Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't

I guess it all depends on your definition of elite. Look at the OFs drafted before Cruz though. I think he can match the power outputs of guys like Holliday, Bay, Lind and Kemp, don't you? His bust probability is higher relative to those guys (except for Lind maybe?) but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's up there with Dunn and Braun as far as sheer power numbers go.

AquaMan2342 wrote:Cruz has been raking for 2+ now. I realize most of 08 was in AAA, but I think the fact that it successfully translated into the majors last year should make him a pretty solid pick around the 6th round. Especially when people are drafting Werth in the late 3rd/early 4th. I won't own Werth on one team this year if I know I can get Cruz 2 rounds later.....33 HR in 128 games??

Agreed on all accounts, but do you rank Cruz as one of the Elite Power OFers now? I certainly don't

Well, then we disagree.

I can't find my copy right now, but Shandler's Forecaster has him around fifth or so on his Px (power skill) ranking. And more generally, I would put him on the list of outfielders potentially able to hit 40 HRs this season. And that's a short list.

Edit: In Curtis' Wisdom of the Crowds spreadsheet, Cruz is also projected for 4th-most HRs among OFers.

Found it. Cruz had the eighth highest PX, which is Shandler's power variable, for hitters in the major leagues with over 400 ABs. The only OFer with a higher PX score was Adam Dunn. If you throw into the mix that power hitters hit their peaks in their late twenties to very early thirties, I think Cruz profiles as one of the best power options in the OF this year. I'd be concerned about his counting stats as I think he's penciled to hit 7th but if you're looking for power, I would call him elite no question.

And I'm also thinking that he's one of the safer bets as a lot of the guys Havok has over him are young and tough to predict with confidence (Upton, Bruce, McCutchen, Adam Jones) or older and I'm thinking might start seeing stat declines (Manny, Ichiro, Hunter, Soriano, Carlos Lee to a lesser extent) or are speed guys, which is not what I'm looking for from one of my top OFers (Ellsbury, Crawford, Pierre!!!!). In short, I don't think there's much of a way that I would have Cruz rated under the 15th OFer and I think he's arguably in the top 12.