If there’s one team in March Madness that describes my NCAA tournament prognostication resume, it’s probably Iowa State. Both of us run hot and cold, staying in the zone about as long as John Calipari can hold his team’s attention.

The Cyclones can take you on some nice rides, capturing the rugged Big 12 Conference tournament and winning 14 consecutive games (four over NCAA opponents). But coach Fred Hoiberg (a.k.a. The Mayor) has a constituency that can inexplicably allow 102 points to West Virginia.

That apty describes my bracket reliability. On the plus side, I’ve correctly predicted the national champion five of the last seven years, being let down by Kansas in 2010 and ’11.

Now for the flip side: I’m 4-for-16 on my Final Four picks over the past four years. A .250 batting average doesn’t get many major-league hitters a lucrative contract, and it sure keeps you in the red with Las Vegas bookmakers.

This year, despite chatter about this being a wide-open tourney, I’m not buying it. I’m in chalk-heavy mode. My conservatism is so rampant that 14 of my Sweet 16 picks are top-four seeds. Something to consider: Every national champion since Kansas in 1988 has been on the top-four line.

Other than No. 1 overall seed Florida, which was assigned the softest draw in the South region, my Final Four picks didn’t come without a lot of second-guessing. The toughest deliberation had to be Arizona or Wisconsin in the West, followed by Sweet 16 matchups of Duke-Michigan (Midwest) and Virginia-Michigan State (East).

First, the Gators have nothing in their path that makes me gun-shy about pushing their win streak from 26 games to at least 30. Pittsburgh in the round of 32 looks problematic, until you realize Jamie Dixon’s team consistently underachieves (losing twice in the round of 32 as a No. 1 seed).

UF coach Billy Donovan might have trouble with his mentor (0-3 against Louisville’s Rick Pitino), but I don’t see former assistant Shaka Smart of VCU or first-year UCLA coach Steve Alford guiding their teams to an upset. UF has won 21 of its last 25 NCAA games because Donovan teams rarely get taken out by inferior opponents.

A probable Elite Eight matchup with Syracuse or Kansas looms, but the Orangemen stumbled badly down the stretch. The Jayhawks expect to have 7-foot center Joel Embiid out this week with a stress fracture in his back, which is why I’ve got them losing to New Mexico, a team Kansas handled easily at home right after losing 67-61 at Florida.

Even if Kansas (nation-high 12 wins over RPI Top 50 teams) gets to a rematch with Florida in Memphis, look for the Gators to cut down nets in the city Elvis made famous.

Everywhere else, the unpredictability factor looks much higher. I don’t trust unbeaten Wichita State to survive a brutal Midwest draw, or even get out of the first week against eighth-seeded Kentucky. I’ll take disrespected Louisville (as a No. 4 seed) to overcome Big Ten champion Michigan and return to the Final Four.

Arizona has a potential land mine in the West region with Wisconsin’s lockdown defense or maybe Creighton’s Doug McDermott, the National Player of the Year favorite. But the Wildcats should survive.

In the East, Virginia snuck up and stole the last No. 1 seed by knocking down every meaningful ACC roadblock. But with Michigan State healthy again, it’s hard to bet against Tom Izzo’s Spartans because versatile 6-foot-10 center Adreian Payne is a nightmare matchup for anybody.

You could play a Final Four of Arizona, Louisville, Florida and Michigan State four times in Dallas and get a different winner each time.

My guess is when the confetti falls in the house Jerry Jones built, the Gators won’t be celebrating. They can become the first team since unbeaten Indiana in 1975 to win the last 32 games of a season. That would be perfect closure for Florida’s impressive senior class of Jacksonville’s Patric Young, Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather and Will Yeguete.

But with Michigan State in the way, as the Spartans were in 2000, I see heartbreak for the Gators. And another national title for Izzo.