The crucible: The Warriors can only go so far with Ellis and Curry

The Warriors have done some good things, and a few not-good things this season, and overall, the team is definitely better than it was at this time last season, but…

If your best two players are both small-framed, offensive-minded combo guards, you’ve probably got a ceiling on how good you can be.

And if your best two players are guards and you have NO low-post presence to complement them, offensively or defensively, then you almost certainly are not making the Western Conference playoffs.

That’s the Warriors’ situation right now, and for the duration of the entertaining, dynamic, and ultimately status quo Monta Ellis/Stephen Curry Era.

Nobody else on this team changes the game–not David Lee, not Dorell Wright, not Ekpe Udoh, though all have very good qualities. Nobody else is worth much on the trade market.

It comes down to Curry and Ellis, and deciding how far the Warriors can get if they play it safe and keep both.

Of course, if the Warriors had Carmelo Anthony… or LeBron James… or Kevin Garnett… or Amare Stoudemire… or Dwight Howard… or any other true difference-making forward or center, they probably could go with Ellis and Curry for as long as possible and win many, many games.

But that’s the problem, of course: They need another bigger player who’s better than one of their two small guards, and they do not have that player or a means to get that player, unless they give up one of their two small guards.

I think we’re seeing how far the Warriors can and will get with these two–fun games, up and down at home vs. Sacramento, lose almost every time they play a real team, with real guards, and a frontcourt that can and will dominate the Warriors.

Unless Joe Lacob, Larry Riley and Robert Rowell can figure out a way to add a big man basically for free, at some point, they are going to have to break up Curry/Ellis-mania.

Pick one, trade the other, and do both things carefully and wisely.

I’m not saying do a trade just to do a trade. I’m saying: If you’re aiming for something more than fun-filled losses, you have to figure this out. You fix your roster.

You don’t waste the talent you have. You turn it into something more sustainable.

-Curry is more valuable as a trade commodity–more versatile, cheaper, younger, no major injury history.

-Ellis is the better player right now–more explosive, tougher, more unique.

The Warriors would get a lot for Curry, because he’s worth a lot.

They’d risk a lot by trading Curry, but they already have Ellis, already are paying him, and to off-load that $33M remaining on Ellis’ deal, they’d have to accept less than his value as a player.

If I’m the Warriors, I think the real-world judgement is that trading Ellis would hurt, and you wouldn’t get enough back or would get something back that comes with a major payroll hit.

And trading Curry would really hurt, but you’d get a shot at something significant (and potentially not salary-busting) in return.

Of course, if you trade Curry, you need a point guard back, at some point. Which is not easy.

But again, I’m not 100% sure Curry is a true 40-minute point guard. Unless he improves drastically on defense, Curry is a combo guard. A damn good one, but that’s what he is. (So is Ellis.)

Curry needs to be in a tight three-guard rotation (big guard to defend the Kobe Bryants, smaller defensive-minded guard to get time vs. the quicker points) to help maximize his abilities and not force him to be out there for long stretches in bad match-ups.

The Warriors can get away with that in certain match-ups. In others, they have almost no shot.

Ellis was right about this from the start.

He and Curry duplicate each other, which is tremendous when they’re going up against bad teams that can’t stop them, but not very effective when a good team rumbles through and forces Ellis and Curry to do things that neither can do very well.

Ellis likes playing with Curry just fine now, but Ellis was actually right from Day 1.

The problem and the point: You get to the playoffs by holding your own against the good teams, not by waving a white flag whenever they can knock around your two best players.

—–the column/

It’s coincidence. Random. A minor inconvenience!

There’s no grand meaning to Stephen Curry tweaking his tender right ankle at practice Tuesday, other than putting his status for Wednesday’s game into question.

Except…

Curry has missed eight games this season, after missing only two last year, and this is the same ankle that has been bothering him since October.

Meanwhile, his Warriors backcourt partner, Monta Ellis, missed a combined 75 games in the past two seasons, mostly due to problems with his left ankle, including a flare-up last weekend.

Of course, Ellis didn’t miss a game with the recent scare and hasn’t missed any this season.

But the repeated injuries bring focus to the bigger point: The Warriors’ dynamic backcourt is small, skinny, and even when healthy, often cannot hold up against the league’s tougher tandems.

Curry and Ellis certainly are valuable. No owner or general manager should be eager to consider trading either one of them.

And yet, as long as they have Ellis and Curry — and don’t complement either player with low-post hammers — the Warriors will almost always be just soft enough to lose more games than they win.

How do you improve the roster around one of them? By making a smart, gutsy trade with the other at the Feb. 24 trade deadline or, more likely, next offseason.

Fact: The Warriors are 19-25 (12th place in the West), and new owner Joe Lacob’s recently stated

goal of getting to 28-27 by the All-Star break does not seem realistic.

Fact: The Warriors are 5-15 against teams currently sitting in the 16 playoff spots.

Fact: Their recent 9-5 run (now 9-7 after back-to-back losses) was fueled by an easy spot in the schedule.

Fact: If the Warriors can’t get to .500 by the All-Star break, they probably won’t ever get there. Sixteen of their final 25 games are on the road, where the Warriors have a 6-17 record.

I asked Ellis on Tuesday if he wants the core to stay together. Ellis said it’s Lacob’s decision, but he also offered a call for continuity.

“For us to only have been together for three to four months, I think we’re doing excellently,” Ellis said. “But it’s their decisions upstairs to make those types of decisions.

“We’re just going to continue to play as a team and not worry about what people say in the paper or what’s misquoted about what the owner said.”

Lacob, for the record, told me last week he was open to any possibility, including trading Curry or Ellis, and a few other outlets ran a lot harder with the trade-Curry headline than I did.

Still, Curry is younger, is an elite shooter, shares the ball and isn’t owed big long-term money. He would be extremely attractive on the trade market.

The point is, if the Warriors need to move somebody to land a big-man difference-maker, their other options are limited.

They already gave $80 million to David Lee, who is not quite a difference-maker.

Andris Biedrins is owed $27 million over the next three years and is not considered a tradable asset.

Yes, the Warriors have $17 million in expiring contracts — Vladimir Radmanovic, Dan Gadzuric and Brandan Wright — to offer in a trade to teams looking for salary relief in exchange for talent.

But several executives have said that the market isn’t strong for expiring contracts this winter.

And by all reports, next June’s draft is not loaded with elite players.

So how would the Warriors possibly make the move for a big man? By dangling Curry or Ellis. It’s not preferable, but teams don’t offer up good young centers for mediocre players.

This might not happen by Feb. 24, but the Warriors have to do the groundwork now.

Some names to consider:
* Denver’s Nene is relatively young (28), is having a breakout season and can become a free agent this summer.
* The Los Angeles Clippers’ Chris Kaman, also 28, is an awkward but established low-post presence. He is owed $12.2 million next season and has been hurt this season, but he is available now because of the emergence of DeAndre Jordan.
* Others: Dallas’ Tyson Chandler, 28, is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent; Memphis’ Marc Gasol, 25, is scheduled to become a restricted free agent.

Curry straight up for any of those players doesn’t seem like a good deal, but it almost has to start that way.

By the way, because the Warriors are at or over the salary cap for next summer, they won’t be able to sign a major free agent outright. It would have to be in a sign-and-trade situation.

And in that situation, their most marketable commodity, who happens to be slightly duplicative of their best player, is Curry.

It’s not the ideal scenario. Curry could easily come back to haunt anyone who sends him away. It’s risky. But without any move, the Warriors will continue to be what they are now: A fun, safe, soft run to 37-45.

Andris Biedrins MUST go. We are better off without him. Dan Gadzuric has surpassed him in +/-. He is expendable now.

cadan

i dont love any of those guys…probably gasol the best but restricted guys are tough to get…as a last resort i wouldnt mind Kaman for an expiring but only if they exhausted all other options…and in that case you would also have to find a taker for Biedrins

monta and curry aren’t the problem here. trading one or the other for another player at their position wouldn’t get us anything but a few more losses.

so how to really improve the roster? why not do what any other b-ball minded person would do and examine the weak spots on the team? try the 5 spot. absolutely ZERO production there. try the bench, which was gutted to bring on Lee and off-load maggette. the warriors don’t lose games because of curry or monta. they lose games because of the other 12 players on the roster.

If you’re going to trade Curry, do it for a guy like Al Horford, Lamarcus Aldridge, or Demarcus Cousins. Both Hawks and Blazers would be interested in Curry. Kings would love a Curry/Evans backcourt. Another option is to take a risk on either Greg Oden or Yao Ming. Even getting 20-25 minutes a game from either of those guys would be a big help (if they are healthy enough to play). The last option is to just draft the most NBA ready low post guy they can get in the lottery.

Randy

That is absolutely ridiculous. Saying Monta Ellis and Steph Curry are both combo guards and leaving it at that simply doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve all seen what happens when Monta tries to run the point full time, and it isn’t pretty. Steph actually has the vision/ball-handling/deadly shot needed to be a great point-guard.

Our Team

TK, this is a terrible idea. You don’t trade Curry. Please stop this nonsense. Curry is our point guard of the future. That is the most critical position on the floor. The great young point guards need to be able to score and pass to make others better. Curry can do that and is developing into a Nash-like player. He’s already better than Evans or Jennings or anyone else his age at pg. Monta will never be a point guard. Almost none of the starting point guards can stop the top pgs they guard from using the P&R effectively and getting to the hoop. Too many screens; you can’t slow them down under the current “rules”; you breath on them when they drive to the hoop and are called for a foul. You need top team defense and long, quick bigs with help D picking them off the P&R and protecting the basket. That’s where we need the fa signing.

You don’t trade Curry to get that. If you trade Curry, you trade your future star at THE MOST IMPORTANT POSITION IN THE MODERN NBA. He’s the last guy you would trade. It’s called “cutting off your nose to spite your face”. Apparently, Tim, you are unfamiliar with this concept.

There is no team out there that is going to give up a difference making big man for Steph or Monta. Difference making big men are few and far between. So the next best thing is to improve our backcourt and wing by trading with a partner who is overloaded at the backcourt. Philly has Holiday/Williams/Turner and Iggy and no center. I would trade Step and Biedriens and whatever expiring Philly wants for Holiday/Iggy and Speights. Philly gets Curry/Turner/Williams Backcourt+ Biedrins+ Cap Relief and we get IMHO an improved overall backcourt of Holiday/Monta/Iggy that is excellent offensively and defensively and allows us to match up favorably to any backcourt in the league. Trust me Holiday is going to one of best PG’s in the league soon, you will be comparing him to Westbrook soon. He is also an excellent defender.
Speight is young and big and wide body, something the Warriors haven’t had in 15 yrs, he is a project but atleast he comes with the physical attributes we are looking for.

uweblab

Trade Fitz for Greg Papa !!!

Perdii

I’ll trade both Fitz and Brooks for Greg Papa. Heck, I’ll trade them both for Rush Limbaugh doing sports.

Joe Lacob, I’ve been a Warriors fan since the 60’s. I’ve played and I’ve coached. As a fan, it’s been mostly trying times. Steph Curry is one of the very few things we’ve had to look forward to as fans the past 20 years. In an era of the dominant point guard, we were fortunate enough to land a future top five point guard, yes, the next Nash. I am confident you won’t throw that away. It would be tantamount to Cohan trading Webber, and would set us back 20 years. Please show us that you are much smarter than that.

Dgrad

It’s this kind of thinking that has kept the Warriors in the cellar all these years.

Paul Mokeski’s Mustache

Wow, what a extensive blog entry stating the obvious. TK, you could have gotten there a bit quicker. Still, it’s not as easy as trading Curry or Ellis ASAP. I’d imagine the W’s would try and ship Biedrins out as well, especially if they were trading for a low post player. All of a sudden it’s a multi player deal, which would be easier to do with Curry’s contract than Ellis.

Oh by the way, it’s not like the W’s are deep in the backcourt. TK, surprising you only listed low post players. Trading either Curry or Ellis without at the same time addressing the need for point guard depth would be foolish.

I think the first challenge for Lacob is not trading way one of his two prized assets too quickly just to shake things up. If he’s patient he’ll be able to parlay one of these guys for something substantial, and in the meantime get a better feel for who will be easier to build around.

STH from sec 113

You build teams around good point guards and centers. There are exceptions of course but Monta is not one of them.

TheCity

This column is ridiculous TK.

There are so many fallacies and hypocrisies in it, and I don’t even know where to start.

If you listen to opposing coaches, they all say the same thing: they praise the potential of this explosive, talented backcourt.

This is dumb, irresponsible, and spineless writing, potentially damaging if anyone reads and buys it.

WTF

Not too sure about this one. Of course TK is going to stir the pot so I don’t mind the speculation. The problem I have is that he’s making too many assumptions as if both Monta and Steph have already reached their potential and I definitely don’t agree there. I’m actually more inclined to think that this team has a good core to start with and just need to add talent. Biedrins is close to useless at center and the bench is a joke. If those areas were solid and they were still losing to the top teams then yes, trade one of the top two. Otherwise, Kaman and/or any of the other losers mentioned above do not make this team better when you lose one of your best players. Trading either is a bad move, period.

Xiong

Tim, remember that blog post about trading Lincecum for Alex Rios a few years back?

This column sounds extremely similar to that one and look how everything turn out for the Giants. Here’s to hoping the Warriors will be relevant in 3 years competing for championships. And Curry becoming a top point guard in the league, while the big men you listed become garbage. If that happens in the future, you know you’ll be hearing from us about this post. There is no way the Warriors should trade Curry. I’m more open to trading Ellis for a more conventional 2 guard.

Twinkie defense

Add a free agent Dwight Howard to this team in a year and a half and they are instant contenders – better than Orlando.

John

This is dumb. Remember the last time we trade a great guard so we could chase a bigman? yeah Billy Owens. Nellie ruined RUN TCM, it may not have been championship level teams but it was great.

Thunder’s Ghost

Nice article TK..

Great summary of The Inconvenient Truth most Warrior fans are too weak-minded to digest. Judging by the posts and Warrior fan’s love for paying to watch simi-exciting LOSING BASKETBALL, its clear that most Dubs fans don’t know crap about good basketball..

You cannot win starting two 6’3 160 pound guards in the NBA. What don’t you nitwits get??? How many times do you guys really wanna watch the two of them score a combined 60pts, while giving up 50 on the other end, to barely beat a crappy team or get beatdown by a good one???

Its not all their fault of course. Beans is garbage and now is untradeable. Lee is solid but is not a good enough defender, and not a back to the basket scorer. A highly questionable rotation makes one wonder what a better coach could do with our talent.

I say trade Monta. Older, One dimensional, doesn’t make his teammates better. If not for a big man (obviously few quality ones available) for a skilled, defensive 2 like Iguodala or a combination of players.

There are three solid big men we could use in this upcoming draft if our void at center is not filled:

Donatas Motiejunas
Trey Thompkins
Jonas Valanciunas

Keep coming with the truth TK.. Even if some of us can’t take it.

Roger Ramjet

Like all sportswriters, you write with self confidence and authority because you are not accountable for your words.

jason bourne

I think the Warriors will have about $14 – 15 M in cap space. How about making an offer for Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan (restricted) or Kendrick Perkins or Nene (unrestricted)?

W’s in 2010

$50M committed next year, there is no capspace.

Unless we somehow made Biedrins and his $9M magically disappear. Not gonna happen. An easier route most people won’t want to do is use E.Udoh to dump Charlie Bell’s contract, together they make close to $8M. That would clear enough capspace to sign someone of significance.

Tim, trading their best young player for a second tier front court player is asinine
You made more sense telling the Giants to trade Lincecum for Rios.
Bietrins needs to be traded for a new athletic trainer or some new balls.He is beyond pathetic.28 mins and his stat sheet no blocks no points and four rebounds

Afraid to shoot because his free throws are beyond ugly so he stands around taking up space.Enough already

Ron

We have a few guys just taking up a seat on the bench. In lieu of any big trades dump them and give some D league guys a shot. I hope the next CBA allows teams to send anyone down. That might inspire some to work harder at their craft (ie Biedrens). Some time in Sioux Falls in January might light a fire under his butt!

MWLX

I’m sure someone with Dallas got caught up in the same convoluted thinking to justify trading Steve Nash. How did that work out?

MWLX

I’m sure Dallas got enmeshed in the same convoluted thinking to justify trading Steve Nash. How did that work out?

Jim Gone Fishing

I think the problem here is Warrior’s management history of steering clear of offensively limited low post players. That was Nelson’s mindset, that was RUN TMC, that was Mullins’ picks, and even We Believe. We should package Curry and Biedrins. I hope that other teams haven’t picked up on Biedrins’ attitude change as the local bloggers have. Hate to lose Steph.

We need a bigger boat…

Robbing Peter to pay Paul isn’t the right strategy here. Both are needed. Fix the front court, get a few legit low post guys, and this could be a 45+ win team.

SoCalSooner

I agree. We can only go so far with these two. That’s why we need to surround them with more. A legit big man and this team is IMMEDIATELY a force. Don’t trade one of these two rising stars for another role player.

The Wisdom Cow

So far, the only thing I see from Lacob is that he is smart enough to pick the 9-5 run thanks to the schedule as the moment to do those big sit down interviews. It saddens me, really, because it means he knows how to spin like a pro. Hollow words are thought of as substantial with the right timing, but they are still hollow.

David Lee is a good player, but when NY lands Carmelo with Anthony Randolph’s as yet realized talents as the primary player sent west, maybe people will have a better idea why I was so angry about that trade.

Fire Bob Fitzgerald

Trading Curry for any of the mediocre to decent players you mention in the article would be brain dead stupid. The Warriors lucked out and got a player when the Timberwolves made two apparent mistakes in a row. They shouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot by giving Curry away now. Hopefully you are just making this stuff up; surely Riley isn’t this much of an idiot (he probably is though).

Go Warriors

W’s need a big man, nothing new here Tim! We’ve been saying this since the days Chris Webber got traded. The Warriors are not a better team, they just look different but the loss of their depth in the bench balances out the improvement in the starters.

I like David Lee a lot, but we practically gave up our bench when you include not signing Marrow, for his huge contract. Hes a great hustle player with a mid range game, but like you said, he’s no low post PF. Don’t get me wrong, I think we can be pretty solid with him and a big man, but how do we get one? None of those guys you mention are worth giving up one of our guards for, I’d rather trade a top pick in a draft with no true #1. We could trade a pick and biedrins for Gasol, or just go for the draft.

Our main route to getting a solid big man is to clean up the front office and get some quality basketball minds that will make a star player want to sign with the W’s. Don’t skip the step here Tim.

ZEUS

Curry and Gadzuric for Andre miller and Greg Oden?? Risky but could very well pay off… Or Curry, Gadzuric and a first round for Aldridge and Patty mills?

If the likes of Chris Kaman are the best return we can get for Curry, then we don’t trade Curry.

Common Sense

my head is spinning.

Al Bumin

What’s more important, making the playoffs this year, or winning a championship in 3-5 years?

Kitty Kat

I agree with #7 : there just isn’t a team out there that would trade a young, impactful big man for a shooting guard, even one as good as Curry or Ellis.

Keep’n It Real

I like this form Bleacher Report : “Another trade the Warriors could do is trade Dorell Wright and Andris Biedrins for Iguodala.”

We could use Fitz as a throw-in.

Robert

Man stick interviews, you have no basketball iq whatsoever. When you form your own opinions about bball, you just look stupid. Maybe the same thing about football, when you headline ’49ers set up to fail with Harbaugh signing’…wait u deleted that???

fumble

Tim,
The idea is to trade away your mediocre players and keep your good ones. Are you sure you weren’t a Warriors’ GM in some other life?

jscrilla

As much as I’ve attached Lacob on this blog. I doubt very seriously he would Trade Curry unless he gets Melo, T Evans, K Love (recently beastin it up) like talent in return.

The Clips just lost Gordon AND theyre going on the road. The Dubz got lots of games at home and are undoubtedly better now than when the season began.

I’d say in 2-3 weeks we’ll know the true state of the Warriors.

rjamor

Someone posted this in a board in ESPN that sounds perfect as a deal:

“ChuckDurn:

Here’s a different idea.

Milwaukee is struggling, they’re 10th in the East after surprisingly making the playoffs last year. Their record is worse than the Warriors at 16-26.

Monta’s probably the best player in the deal, but not by a huge margin over Bogut. Salmons is a little bit overpaid, but his deal isn’t horrid, it goes up a bit but then back down (?) and his last year is a team option. All told it averages around $8M/year, guaranteed for 4 years. (The same length as all of Monta, Biedrins, and Bogut.)

I’d do it. Bogut’s shooting stats are down a bit this year, but he’s been recovering from his horrible elbow injury, so it’s no surprise; he’ll be fine. And he’s an excellent defender, leading the league in blocks and fifth in rebounds.

Riley, give the Bucks a call. The biggest issue with this trade probably is getting Monta to play in Skiles’ system…… “

thardawayfan

Agree 100% with this article, we can’t defend with our current lineup. Yet we will be better than the worst teams in the league so we will continue to have late lottery draft picks. No chance in drafting a superstar big b/c those stars are almost always picked in the top 5. No chance at getting a superstar big in free agency, b/c no one wants to come here. Elite defensive bigs (Nene, Chandler, Bynum, Horford) are what we need on this team but no team would trade one for Curry, but we may come close if we trade for a non-superstar, defense oriented big such as Serge Ibaka, Darko Milicic, Okafor.

However, I wouldn’t trade Monta right now unless we got a superstar big in return–which won’t happen. Today’s Monta is not that far off from Dwayne Wade in terms of what they bring to the table and how good they are. Except Monta is extremely undervalued in the market. Few players can get to the hoop and finish or create for others as well as Monta today–the only others are Wade, Westbrook, Rose. That makes for an extremely valuable player in the playoffs if we could ever get there.

Curry is very overrated by Warrior fans. I think he is a nice player, but he is clearly a notch below Monta in terms of affecting wins/losses, and we can probably get better trade value for him. Curry is someone we can sell while his stock is high. Monta’s stock is still very low.

Warriors front management needs to do a better job of buying high, selling low. Not the other way around, which is what we typically do with personnel moves– the David Lee signing being the latest example.

WarBlazer

I’m a Warriors fan of long standing who now lives near Portland. Here’s a creative solution to the woes of both teams (one that’s as possible as most of what is proposed here):

Simply combine the Warriors and Blazers into one hybrid contender for the title. Imagine having a core that includes Aldridge, Batum, Miller, Camby, Roy, Matthews, Lee, Ellis, Curry, and D. Wright. Out of the mass of bigs not mentioned, one or two might emerge to complement this mix.

Hey, I can dream, can’t I?

Media Blitz

TK,

How in the world is the market *not* strong for expiring contracts this winter, as we head into a potential lock out?

ValidPointResponse

Tim Kawakami is right on the money. I hear the tv/radio fitzgerald keep saying why trade Steph Curry he is so young and only 22 and huge upswing. Well, guess what?, they all are you you when the enter the nba, this young upswing junk is exactly what it is ….JUNK SIPPING CRAP.

Nobody in the history of the nba and certainly now has won with two scrawny guards. This is hugely magnified by the horrible weak play of Biedrins to try and sure up the lane as scrawny boy curry gets driven past and bulldogged as weak flailing give up a 3 point play uselssdrins does all the time.

Curry has alot of talent ….we just don’t need him in the lineup with Monta………..THE TIME HAS COME AND THE OWNERS NEED TO MAKE A STATEMENT AND START BUILDING A GOOD TEAM …..THE REFS DONT’ EVEN TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY EITHER…..HENCE……THEY CAN’T GET ANY CALLS

Hey, TK. Why not give us more garbage about Curry’s defensive weaknesses? You know, like the post that criticized him while lauding DLee — even tho both had identical scores on your “defensive +/-” scale. Or the one that ignored Monta, even tho his “scores” are far worse than Curry’s and Lee’s.

Simply, the W’s need both. With their new Big 3 — and, maybe, DW — their task should be to find a real five (AB is now lost in Pansyland), a tough, defensive back-up two (a la KA was before injury), and some depth. Their top 3-4 did fine against the Spurs; it was the bench that killed ’em.

Now, take a deep breath, Tim, and get over this “must break up Curry and Monta” nonsense. And, finally, give Lacob a chance to show us if he’s as smart as he claims.