Saving Iran From Itself

About the Author

James Jay Carafano, Ph.D.Vice President for the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, and the E. W. Richardson Fellow

According to "realist"
international-relations theory, nations will act in their own
self-interest.

Iranian leaders who are
pushing to provide their country with the option to "go nuclear"
don't seem to get the idea.

Virtually every nation
that has fielded a nuclear weapon has done so to counter a
perceived threat. Iran seems to want to be the exception. And
arming itself with nukes isn't merely unnecessary; it could do
irreparable harm to its international standing and strategic
security.

Inspections by
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) show that
Iran has pushed the legal limit and gone a bit beyond what's
permissible for a peaceful nuclear research effort. It seems pretty
clear that the Iranians are trying to develop enough expertise and
capacity to switch from a legitimate program to producing fissile
material for nuclear weapons in very short order.

Tehran's nuclear
research program makes absolutely no sense from an economic or
environmental standpoint. Iran has more than enough petroleum to
meet its domestic and export needs, and plenty of natural gas is
available if anyone's worried about air pollution.

Nuclear weapons make
even less sense from a strategic point of view. Iran is arguably
much safer than it was a decade ago. The Soviet bear has been
de-clawed. Russia's military poses no threat. The Taliban is gone,
and a friendly warlord sits on the Afghan-Iranian border. Saddam
Hussein, who once led an invasion of Iran, has been deposed. Turkey
certainly isn't interested in attacking Iran. Even Israel may make
peace with the Palestinian Authority, leaving Iran scant
justification for portraying that conflict as a causus
belli.

Ironically, all these
developments can in great part be attributed to the policies of the
United States -- which, it can be argued, has done more to make the
world safe for Iran than all the mullahs in Tehran.

Iranians might argue
that they have to defend themselves against the United States.
After all, the president did list their country as part of an axis
of evil. But Iran is on the list only because it has backed
terrorists and pursued weapons of mass destruction. With the
Baathist Party out of power in Iraq and peace close to
breaking out in Palestine, support for terrorism as a means to
advance Iranian interest makes little sense. And a nuclear weapons
program, which is more likely to gain Washington's ire than its
indifference, doesn't seem like a good idea for a country that
wants to enhance its security.

A nuclear program
would be logical only if Iran wants a stick that it can use to
bully neighbors and raise its standing in the Islamic world.
But wait, Pakistan tried that route. All it managed to achieve was
a nuclear standoff that threatens to kill millions of people if
somebody makes a mistake or gets an itchy trigger
finger.

Even if Iran builds a
nuclear capability, it can rest assured that, like North
Korea, it will get more attention from the United States than it
wants. It also will risk isolating itself diplomatically and
economically from the nations that can help meet the aspirations of
young Iranians who wish to see their country grow and
prosper.

That said, Iran's
leaders have time to come to their senses. If they decided to build
a bomb tomorrow, it would take time to produce the fissile
material, assemble a workable weapon, and marry it to a reliable
delivery system. By that time, there may be enough missile-defense
systems to make their nuclear threat seem fairly timid.

In the meantime, an
Iranian regime may emerge that recognizes that expensive nuclear
programs that waste national treasure and provide no added security
are a poor bargain. Other nations, including Brazil, South Africa
and South Korea managed to do the math right and scrap their
nuclear ambitions. Perhaps Iran will as well.

The United States has made the Middle East
safe for Iran. It also has the power to make the regime in Tehran
feel a lot less secure if it pushes for the nuclear option. Now is
the time for a little realistic thinking. Iran should immediately
adopt the IAEA protocols and follow the spirit as well as the
letter of these prohibitions against developing nuclear arms.
Better yet, Tehran would be wise to abolish its nuclear program
altogether -- and make Iran safe from itself.

James
Carafanois a senior research
fellow for defense and homeland security atThe Heritage
Foundation.

About the Author

James Jay Carafano, Ph.D.Vice President for the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, and the E. W. Richardson Fellow