The Buffalo Bulls are off to a 4-0 start in MAC play; all four wins by double-digits. The first of the four was a resounding 104-94 victory over Toledo. The result and pace (80 possessions) seems to have "juiced" the Bulls totals a bit. Since the win over Toledo, Buffalo has played three straight opponents very similar to Northern Illinois. Against Ball State, Akron, and Miami-Ohio, the game scores were 146, 152, and 148; all of which went under the total. More importantly, the Bulls didn't allow more than 66 points. Northern Illinois played a handful of high scoring affairs during the non-conference but we've seen the Huskies return to the "norm" since MAC play began. NIU's four league games yielded four "unders" and games scores of 136, 146, 123, and 138. Buffalo serves as a big step up in class but NIU just hasn't shown much of a willingness if any to play up-tempo during Mark Montgomery's seven-year tenure. Also note that last year's meeting closed 144.5 and Buffalo won 65-45. We won't see a low score like that tonight but plenty of wiggle room to get us under the Read more

Took a contrarian side to victory with the Free Play last week and will do it again here in this Big XII match-up. Subtraction of last season’s Head Coach Brad Underwood has not changed the Cowboys offensive style as they still play a high tempo brand of basketball under new HC Mike Boynton. Their average adjusted tempo has increased in Big XII play from 71 possessions to 74 based on KenPom numbers which is understandable since the league is loaded with up and down style teams. To their credit, OSU has remained an efficient offensive team despite significant personnel losses from last season but the overall number includes more than a half dozen non-conference defensive cupcakes. Games frequently unfold situationally due to styles and what’s interesting here about the Cowboys is how their brand of offense was stoned Saturday by slow tempo-defense oriented Texas. Despite a very respectable 44.8 FG% against the Longhorns who only allow an average of 42%, the game was reduced to a crawl and 65-64 final score.

LSU is a far different team under first-year head coach Will Wade. The most notable change is more effort on the defensive end of the floor. It's a work in progress but since losing at home to Stephen F. Austin 83-82, the Tigers have allowed 58, 52, 61, 75, and 68 including league tilts vs. Kentucky and at Texas A&M. It's still a team that will get out in transition and break down in the half court defensively, but Wade has them playing far more traditional basketball compared to the up-and-down, no defense style under former head coach Johnny Jones. Arkansas is playing up-tempo per usual but due to a number of high scoring non-conference affairs, their totals are currently a bit "juiced." All three of the Razorbacks' SEC games thus far went under the total in regulation; the Tennessee game went to overtime. Last year's two meetings closed 164.5 and 162.5 and here we see a similar number despite LSU being slower paced and better defensively. Numbers play here as the under worth a bet.

College Basketball Gambling Free Pick: Duquesne Dukes at VCU Rams

Going to take the contrarian side here in this contest based on the style change at Duquesne under first year HC Keith Dambrot. The former Akron head coach has brought tortoise type pace and stingy defense to Pittsburgh which has not been the norm in recent years. KenPom adjusted tempo numbers show the Dukes 315th in the nation averaging just 66 possessions in their games. The shot clock is being tested on both ends with Duquesne holding the ball for 18.8 seconds per possession (322nd) and opponents using an average of 17.8 seconds (297th) on offense. This tempo control system has led the Dukes to records of 12-4 straight up, 5-3 against the spread and 1-7 O/U the total. Tonight’s chore is to keep high energy VCU from speeding up the game and lighting up the scoreboard which isn’t easy considering the Rams are posting 79.5 points per outing.

Virginia Commonwealth has played four teams this season that fall into the ultra-methodical and defensive oriented categories with mixed results. At home versus Virginia they lost 76-67 going over the total, against Read more

Georgetown and St. John’s are a combined 1-7 SU in Big East conference play. I think the spot, the price, and matchup works in favor of the Red Storm. St. John’s has struggled to adapt to life without Marcus LoVett who has missed several games due to a knee injury. LoVett is one of the team's better perimeter defenders and it's shown up in the stats as Big East teams are shooting 48% from three against the Red Storm. Georgetown, who beat up on an extremely soft non-conference slate, are one of the few Big East teams that are offensively challenge. Through four games, the Hoyas rank near the bottom in nearly every offensive category despite playing the likes of DePaul, Marquette and Butler who grade out as below average on the defensive end. Georgetown senior point guard Jonathan Mulmore is having a very rough go of it with just 13 points in four Big East games and a negative 12 assists to 13 turnovers ratio. That is the key aspect of this game for St. John’s. The Red Storm are 6th in the country in turnovers forced per game while the Hoyas have been Read more

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Duquesne Dukes at VCU Rams

Duquesne first-year head coach Keith Dambrot has done a marvelous job as the Dukes enter tonight's game at VCU with a 12-4 record including a 3-0 mark in A-10 play. To compare, a season ago, Duquesne won just 10 games and three games in league play. One thing the Dukes have been able to do is defend. Their first three A-10 opponents averaged only 51.6 ppg. But the team's strength of schedule needs to be called into question. There are 351 college basketball teams and Duquesne's SOS is currently 349th according to Sagarin. And despite being 12-4 and playing an ultra-soft slate, the Dukes are only +0.8 in efficiency. Without question, tonight serves as their toughest game to date. VCU has had its struggles as they adjust to life under first-year head coach Mike Rhoades. But after a tough non-conference slate and 5-5 start, the Rams have won five of six with the lone loss coming in overtime on the road against St. Joe's. Duquesne has been able to thrive thus far on gritty play, an underdog mentality, and as mentioned, a favorable schedule. The reality is this squad doesn't have much and Read more