Tuesday, August 30, 2016

Kalends of September for chavismo, or so it seems

The regime has made its business to turn into a fateful day the vast opposition rally planned for next Thursday September 1st. The regime has a lot to lose on that day, but it made sure that its losses would be greater than necessary. And, personally, at this point I do not see how the regime could rake any gain.

It all started when the opposition tired of waiting for a Recall Election date decided to mount a massive protest against Maduro's regime, that is, demanding his exit as soon as possible. Of course, the chosen way is to hold a Recall Election before January 10 2017. The opposition to Maduro has nothing to gain from any unconstitutional settlement of the political crisis: all polls give the opposition soaring numbers since last December stunning electoral victory. Besides, even if the opposition did not enjoy a 70+ against Maduro and wanted to do a stunt, how would it do that? The Venezuelan opposition has been deprived of arms, newspapers, TV, and even of its politicians as many are in jail.

The regime knows all of this, certainly. It also can read polls. And it knows that outside of the likes of Cuba or Nicaragua it has no international support left, at least of the kind that would speak favorably of Maduro. Even supposed allies like Putin or Correa are, well, rather discreet in their praise, if any.

The battle for the regime is lost. They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. As such the economy will keep spiraling down and soon there will be outright bouts of near starvation with all the political mess that comes along. The laws of the economy are finally speaking up in Venezuela and there is no hope that the only economic policy left for the regime, oil at 80 USD a barrel, will happen in the near future. And never mind its personnel as Venezuela is the only country we know of where its interior and security minister cannot travel out of the country least Interpol grabs him and sends him to a trial in the US. Needless to recall the awaited fate of other regime's luminaries.

Faced with what is predicted to be the largest anti regime rally since 2002/2003 the regime decided against the wise move: let it happen and ignore it the best you can, using this as a demonstration that democracy is not dead in Venezuela. Instead it has chosen the worst way to prove that this is indeed a dictatorship.

All sorts of means to block the rally are attempted, too long to list. Here follows the main ones.

But the worst assault has been on Voluntad Popular, the political party of Leopoldo Lopez, the cause celèbre of political prisoners. For the last week there has been an onslaught against the leadership of the party, from accusing the mayor of El Hatillo of smuggling arms, to take San Cristobal mayor from his sick bed in the middle of the night to send him to jail, to outright kidnapping of militants. The vindictiveness of the large concerted attack on Voluntad Popular is simply amazing. Other political parties are not buying: they know they are next. And the OAS least raised its tone as its secretary has issued, in Spanish for now, a long letter which resumes all fo the above and can be read as a stern warning against the regime.

We must wonder what is the regime seeking. Can it be so clumsy? Is there some master plan behind?

I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence that it can provoke easily itself by sending under cover to the rallies Thursday delinquents that will pretend to pin on the opposition a violence that the regime will have started itself. That would explain all of the conspiracy theories blurted these past few days and the arrest of Voluntad Popular leadership which will presumably bear the brunt of the accusation. The ridicule for the regime's cause that Voluntad Popular would have committed the crimes AFTER their incarceration does not seem to have been considered. But that is not the point.

A desperate regime is building a narrative to justify its September repression in the eyes of the followers it still has. In short, the regime is preparing itself to cut loose from the civilized world and drive into oblivion the Venezuelan populations just as the Cuban one was pushed down to nothing within months of the arrival of Fidel in 1958. All seems to point out to that strategy, from ignoring the OAS to put in jail Voluntad Popular leadership, the most active in the streets, the one that apparently must be threatening the most chavismo.

Let's not forget that the loudest voices inside chavismo are the ones most likely to go to jail as soon as they set foot outside of the country. They have nothing to lose anymore. Hence...

6 comments:

"They are unwilling to change the economic system, to open up. " That's because they continue to get rich, and want to steal as much as possible, as fast as possible. The system was designed for massive pilferage.

"I am afraid that the regime seeks an act of violence". Probably.. And it's nothing new.That's how Leopoldo and others were sent to jail. To justify repression, they will call protesters 'fascists', 'guarimberos' trouble makers, and they will crack down hard on them.

Why? Very simple. Because thousands of Chavistoides want to continue stealing and getting richer. Because they have nowhere to go. Cuba, Argentina, Belgium, Africa? And because they risk jail, loss of stolen properties worldwide. What are crooks like Cabello or Tarek going to do after the regime falls? Run, hide, or go to jail.

And remember it's not just Maduro, Cabello and the policians that are crooks. There are Millions of 'enchufados', average people working for the criminal regime, in numerous 'ministries', all over the country. Millions of people that still consider themselves as 'Chavistas', thus anti-opposition. They don't like Maduro, but they love Chavez. Go figure.. And they don't like the "burguesitos' or 'sifrinos' or gringo 'capitalists'.

On September 1st, expect massive repression and some violence. The corrupt police, guardia nazional, corrupt Sebin, they will all go out to crack down on the crowds, send them home or to jail. I'm afraid September 1st won't be peaceful, or pretty, or successful. All of these crooks and thieves and enchufados are wounded beasts. As such they are dangerous now.

I would think they banned drones for the reason of filming size of crowds but also for filming acts of violence from the regime. They could spot snipers etc that localized cell phone cameras will not capture.

Clearly the regime at this point have no concern over what the rest of the world thinks, much like Cuba they will exist within similar crooked regimes like Putin, Cuba, N Korea etc etc. All they care about is staying in power long enough for oil to get to where the small beaten populous left (not dead, jailed, or left the country) can be fed and provided medicine in the same manor as Cuba is. Cuba went through a similar life cycle. The people at the top mostly military will be well funded by drug money regardless of the country's situation. Once oil recovers the beaten people left will be content to accept the life of the Cuban people.

I would not be surprised if the regime wants to use this as a show to China and others that it is in control and can promise away all the country resources that it wants. That there is no risk of the opposition ousting them and going back on their deals.

Reverol announced that he will post snipers on roofs to shoot down drones. The stupidity of those guys has no limit. They lack so much originality they will re-enact another 11 April, it worked so well the first time around, you see. Wait for a few 7.62 mm bullets to hit a few skulls. Then, what's next? Civil war?

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