At least, that's the view from states like Karnataka and Telangana, home to India's twin technology capitals of Bangalore and Hyderabad. The southwestern state of Karnataka has grown more than 5.5% per year in per capita terms since India's economic reforms of the early 1990s. Its south central neighbor, Telangana, has averaged nearly 8%.

Growth rates like these have transformed Karnataka and Telangana from poor backwaters into two of the richest large states in India, nearly even with Maharashtra, home to India's commercial capital Mumbai.

Compound annual growth in real per capita state domestic product for Indian states and union territories, 1994-2017 (or most recent data). Map based on standard Indian templates. Multiple border disputes are not reflected, and this map is not intended to reflect any position on these disputes.Salvatore Babones

Farther to the west, Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat has also recorded sustained growth of over 6% per capita, led by the rapid industrialization of Ahmedabad and its sister city Gandhinagar.

Both states were already among India's poorest in the 1990s. Now they have fallen even farther behind. At just $705 GDP per capita, Uttar Pradesh lags behind Haiti ($761) and Rwanda ($754), according to IMF data. Bihar, at just $479, is on a par with the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Indian net state product per capita growth rates and rankings. Figures based on RBI data. *Note: 2016-2017 NSP per capita for Tripura has been estimated based on prior year's data and nationwide growth rates.Salvatore Babones

Key to power

Uttar Pradesh (literally "North Province"), home to around 220 million people, is far and away India's most populous province. It accounts for 80 of the 543 seats in India's parliament, the Lok Sabha. That makes Uttar Pradesh the key to power in India's national elections.

India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept Uttar Pradesh in the 2014 national elections and again in 2017 local elections, but lost two supposedly safe seats in a by-election this March. Its majority in Uttar Pradesh is crucial for the BJP, accounting for 68 of its 274 seats in the Lok Sabha.

That was 70 out of 276 before the March polls, though the exact figure depends on how you account for vacant seats. Roughly speaking, the BJP derives around one-quarter of its seats from Uttar Pradesh. The province used to be a stronghold of the socialist Samajwadi Party, but when the BJP won Uttar Pradesh in 2014, it won the country.

BENGALURU, INDIA - MAY 8: Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi during BJP rally ahead of Karnataka state Assembly election at National College Ground on May 8, 2018 in Bengaluru, India. (Photo by Arijit Sen/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

The BJP and its charismatic leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi are wildly popular in urban India, but Uttar Pradesh is an overwhelmingly rural state. With an urbanization rate under 23%, Uttar Pradesh is India's sixth most rural province, according to Census of India data. That tension with the BJP's urban core makes Uttar Pradesh ground zero for 2019's national elections.

Picking up?

The BJP made economic growth its central plank in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh legislative elections, to great effect. India's Home Minister, the BJP heavyweight and Uttar Pradesh native Rajnath Singh, has said that "UP means 'Unlimited Potential' for development," and he has vowed to make Uttar Pradesh "India's growth engine." That may be overstating things a bit, but the numbers do suggest that the state economy is picking up under BJP rule.

Yogi Adityanath, in saffron robes, greets Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah, sitting right and Indian Home Minister Rajnath Singh, standing center, after he was sworn in as Uttar Pradesh state chief minister in Lucknow, India, Sunday, March 19, 2017. Senior party leaders Murli Manohar Joshi, left and Lal Krishna Advani, second left are also seen. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh)

The newly installed BJP Chief Minister of Utter Pradesh, the youthful state native Yogi Adityanath, has pushed the development of information technologies and support for startups over traditional Uttar Pradesh priorities like agricultural price supports (though agricultural improvement still gets a nod). The basic message of the perpetually saffron-clad Adityanath is that law and order will bring development.

The BJP's Modi, Singh, and Adityanath seem intent on remaking Uttar Pradesh in the image of modern India. If they succeed, it could lift tens of millions of people out of poverty. In a state where more than half the population still work on farms, the BJP's modernization drive is long overdue. Whether it will accomplish enough, and in time, for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is anyone's guess.

I am an American sociologist living in Sydney, Australia (Chinese name: 巴博斯). I write about Asia's role in the global political economy with a focus on the greater China region. I have published 12 books and dozens of academic journal articles, but what I enjoy most is writi...