Patrick Bolton got the heave-ho in the third episode of ‘Survivor: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers’ leaving the contestant roster at 15. He was my third choice to be eliminated in last week’s odds rundown at +650. He was also +3500 to win the show tying him with a bunch of others for the biggest longshot. Obviously, the pecking order on a reality show–and particularly ‘Survivor’ can change quickly but the bottom line was that I didn’t expect him to do much and he didn’t. His primary liability was his personality which the people deciding his fate found ‘annoying’. Among reality show contestants there’s a mistaken impression that the way to win is by a) making an ass of yourself and b) inflicting your wretched personality on as many other contestants as possible. There is some logic to that since everything else being equal the producers of the show want contestants that make for ‘good television’. Unfortunately, many ‘annoying’ contestants miss the big picture–it has to be used within a cohesive framework of strategy and tactics. Just making a nuisance of one’s self isn’t a ‘strategy’ in itself. Much as there’s one ‘cowboy hat guy’ on every reality show there’s also at least one ‘annoying guy’.

Lauren Rimmer remains our favorite to get eliminated in the next episode priced at +200. One of the factors that makes setting odds on reality shows challenging is that the ‘obvious’ contestant to be eliminated is often kept around for that very reason. The idea is that people will tune in in hopes that the contestant will *finally* meet their denouement. This ‘swerve’ has become ubiquitious on reality television and while any causal relationship with higher ratings is likely impossible to prove don’t expect it to go anywhere. ‘Project Runway’, for example, has done this with the Buitendorp Twins this season. Their antics are definitely the most memorable thing on the show which is why the producers have strung out their ultimate elimination for so long. There’s an old pro wrestling adage that the best way to ‘draw money’ is to have people love you. The second best way is to have people hate you. That concept also applies to reality television.

Cliché – My parents. They both have devoted their lives to helping others. They have worked hard and excelled in education and careers—showing me that hard work pays off. They have shown me what true love means as well as the value of family and having a relationship with Christ. Even in my adult life, I remember the wisdom and lessons they’ve taught me while growing up, and it keeps this scattered mind of mine on point! They are my biggest fans, and I am theirs.

A lot of subtext in that quote. The ‘virgin’ revelation is surprising given Jessica’s bio quote that she’s ‘likable and able to entertain a crowd’. Personally, I could care less if she’s a virgin but the producers are definitely planting the seeds (no pun intended) at making this an angle this season. And while we’re talking subtext maybe she went in to the ‘Survivor’ experience with hopes that she’d lose her ‘V-card’ to some tan and unwashed hunk:

What’s your reason for being on Survivor?

I’m looking for the time of my life! Of course the money, adventure, and opportunities to challenge myself physically, emotionally, and spiritually in ways that I haven’t been challenged before.

She’s not going to come out and say “I’m hoping to get laid” but read between the lines and her true meaning is obvious. Maybe she’s thinking that what ‘happens on a nationally televised reality show stays on a nationally televised reality show’. And, no, I’m not posting odds on whether she leaves the show with her virtue intact. Not because I have any moral or ethical problems doing so but because it’s not possible to verify. It is interesting to note that she’s my favorite to give viewers the next glimpse of pixelated nudity. I still think that’s the case despite her ‘purity’. The standard ‘Survivor’ contestant contract has a bit about agreeing to be filmed “clothed, partially clothed or naked, whether I am aware or unaware of such videotaping, filming or recording”. If she’s come to the show to ‘cut loose’ it’s logical that some gratuitous nudity would be part of the ride.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.