Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Migrants to the United States have become far more likely to claim asylum. The result is a growing backlog of court cases, which harms actual refugees and drags U.S. resources.

President Trump recently deployed the National Guard to the southwestern border, due to concerns of chaos and lawlessness there, particularly due to the impending arrival of a “caravan” of migrants who intended to enter the United States illegally. This cohort of Central American migrants has mostly disbanded now, but concerns about the security of the border persist.

The Trump administration continues to assert that the situation on the border is an acute problem requiring major measures to enhance border security, while progressives have tended to claim that illegal immigration is near the lowest levels in years. In the midst of the argument, it can be hard to sort out which side is more supported by the facts.

The first key fact to understand is that migration patterns can change extremely quickly. A country like Venezuela can go from having a few tens of thousands of diasporans to millions in just two or three years. In the midst of major migration flows, the facts on the ground shift extremely rapidly, so keeping abreast of them is very difficult, but very important.

The situation on the southwest border is no different. The facts on the ground are changing with astonishing speed.