Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: He's Heating Up

Michael Vick didn't play nearly as badly in Week 5 as some might lead you to believe. Though he admittedly got off to a rocky, fumble-filled start, Vick had Philly's offense on the move throughout the game. Dating back to Week 5, Vick has completed 38 of his last 57 passes (66.7 percent) for 411 yards (7.2 YPA), three touchdowns, and no picks in a tough division win over the Giants and narrow road loss at Pittsburgh. And I think his season is ready to hit its stride. The Lions do not play imposing pass defense, serving up a 66.1 completion rate to enemy passers and a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio in four games. Detroit's offense also forces opponents to respond aggressively when it pours on points and yards. This can be the matchup and kind of game that jump starts Vick's fantasy season. ... Following a silent Week 4 against the G-Men, Jeremy Maclin looked to be the Eagles' featured receiver early against the Steelers. Despite RCB Ike Taylor's sticky coverage, Maclin created separation and is clearly running well after an early-season hip injury. He's also a full-time player again. Maclin's matchup becomes a lot more favorable this week against Lions rotational RCBs Bill Bentley, a struggling third-round rookie out of Louisiana-Lafayette, and journeyman Jacob Lacey. DeSean Jackson gets the tougher draw, as he'll face off with LCB Chris Houston on the majority of Sunday's snaps. I think Maclin can have a breakout Week 6 game.

Last week's goal-line TD pass to Brent Celek was the tight end's first of the year. Aside from a fluky 157-yard outburst in Week 2, Celek has yet to top 65 yards in any game this season and is entrenched as a TE2. ... Pedestrian slot man Jason Avant works the same area of the field as Celek and is averaging 32 yards a game. Avant would be an incredibly unaggressive bye-week WR3. ... The Lions have a lot of big-name defensive linemen, but have never played stout run defense under DC Gunther Cunningham. They'll also be without NT Corey Williams (knee) on Sunday. Although LeSean McCoy was held in check from a rushing standpoint by the Steelers last week, he found pay dirt on a receiving score and is going to have a monster game eventually. McCoy is the No. 12 fantasy back through five games. In his last meeting with the Lions -- in 2010 against a similar-looking front four -- McCoy lit up Detroit for 128 yards and three touchdowns.

I think the Lions' early-season offensive woes have been due in some part to tough defenses, but for the most part to identity crisis. Detroit led the NFL in pass attempts last year, and defensive-minded head coach Jim Schwartz doesn't want to do that again. The Lions are already on their second starting tailback of the season -- and not because the first one got hurt -- and they could be headed toward No. 3 if Jahvid Best returns from PUP as soon as the franchise hopes. Running successfully on the Eagles is going to be a struggle. In a 180 from last year, Philadelphia's front seven is actually defending the run better than rushing the passer, permitting under four yards per carry to opposing ground attacks, and one rushing score through five games. Revealing himself to be a volume-dependent back short on big-play ability, Mikel Leshoure is averaging 3.23 yards per carry and has yet to break off a gain of longer than 15 yards on 47 touches. Perhaps Leshoure will reacquire some burst coming off the bye, but for now he's just a low-end RB2 in this matchup. ... Joique Bell is the Lions' temporary change-of-pace back, averaging eight touches over the past three games while Kevin Smith hasn't handled the rock since Week 2. Neither Bell nor Smith is a Week 6 fantasy option, and the former's value is fleeting with Best apparently on his way back.

Philadelphia hasn't sacked a quarterback in two games, which for the Eagles means they're due. They have way too much D-Line talent for the drought to continue. Philly is going to give Matthew Stafford all he can handle with a top-nine pass defense allowing a putrid 5.78 YPA and NFC-low 53.6 completion rate. The Eagles have a 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio against. Stafford will eventually pick it up, but he has a brutal upcoming three-game stretch against Philly, Chicago, and Seattle. Stafford started painfully slow, and he may not get a whole lot better in the immediate future. ... The Lions' 2012 target distribution: Calvin Johnson 43, Brandon Pettigrew 35, Nate Burleson 31, Titus Young and Bell 16, and Tony Scheffler 14. ... Megatron starts no matter the matchup. He's on pace for a 116-1,692-4 line, and the TDs will come up. ... Pettigrew is a poor player, but the ball goes to him in Detroit's offense enough to keep Pettigrew afloat as a back-end TE1. Keep in mind the Eagles are stingy against tight ends, allowing an average weekly stat line of 5.5 catches for 42 yards to the position. Only one tight end has scored a touchdown on Philadelphia this season. ... Burleson is heavily targeted, but barely averages over nine yards a catch and has one touchdown in his last six games. Don't be shocked if he begins losing snaps to Ryan Broyles after the bye. ... Young has been an early-season disappointment with one productive game out of four. Battling ongoing knee soreness, Young needs to display box-score production before becoming fantasy viable.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 20

Oakland @ Atlanta

Whereas the Steelers got Rashard Mendenhall back after a Week 4 bye and the Cowboys will receive a defensive line injection via NT Jay Ratliff, the Raiders have no such luck. Oakland's pass defense was blown to smithereens by early-season injuries to first-team CBs Ronald Bartell (fractured shoulder) and Shawntae Spencer (foot sprain), and both remain on the mend. In their first four games, the Raiders allowed Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning to complete a combined 108-of-150 passes (72 percent) for 1,153 yards (7.69 YPA), and a 9:0 TD-to-INT ratio, with a tenth touchdown coming on a rushing score by Tannehill. That's right, Oakland hasn't intercepted a pass all season. Matt Ryan is the No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback, and he should light this group up. ... Tony Gonzalez entered Week 5 ranked first in fantasy tight end scoring and distanced himself from the pack with a 13/123/1 line against the Redskins. Gonzalez is 36 1/2 years old, but he won't be slowing down anytime soon in a pass-heavy offense benefiting from linebacker and strong safety coverage between two wideouts who command constant defensive attention. The Raiders recently began using free safety Michael Huff at corner to help compensate for Bartell and Spencer. They've been gutted by tight ends since, surrendering 19 receptions and four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.

Ryan's 2012 target distribution: Gonzalez 47, Julio Jones 46, Roddy White 45, Harry Douglas 16, Jacquizz Rodgers 14, Michael Turner 13. ... White was the featured wideout in playcaller Dirk Koetter's Week 4 game plan (12 targets). Jones was the go-to guy last week (15 targets). Against as bad a pass defense as Oakland's, White, Jones, and Gonzalez can all get theirs. Start 'em. ... Turner retook his clear-cut lead back role in Week 5, gaining only 69 yards on 20 touches but finding fourth-quarter pay dirt from 13 yards out against a worn-down Redskins defense. Rodgers touched the ball four times on offense. The Raiders rank 24th against the run, and Atlanta's high-octane passing offense sets up scoring chances for its red-zone runner. Just beware that Turner's schedule stiffens following Atlanta's Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8 through 12, Turner will face one run defense ranked lower than 15th in the NFL. Turner's two-year penchant for slowing down late in seasons is another long-range concern for his fantasy stock. He remains a recommended sell high in all leagues. ... Rodgers continues to provide little optimism that he'll ever take the reins as a featurable back. "Quizz" excels in the pass game, but struggles to run inside the tackles and possesses unimpressive short-area burst. He is averaging 2.72 YPC on 29 carries this season.

I went back and watched all of Darren McFadden's Week 4 runs before Oakland's open date and noticed from him an inability to exploit first- and second-level running room due to what my eyes told me was diminished explosion. In Oakland's first four games, McFadden certainly displayed less violence as a runner, most notably by running out of bounds when in years past he would have cut upfield. That all sounds bad, but there are promising signs for forward-looking McFadden owners. His workload is secure, his bye out of the way, and each of his next three games come against run defenses ranked 22nd or worse. Over the last month, Atlanta's 27th-ranked group has served up 562 yards and four touchdowns on 100 carries to opposing rushers. That's a 5.62 YPC clip. Falcons leading tackler SLB Stephen Nicholas (ankle) also may not play this week. Fire up McFadden and hope the Raiders keep this game close. ... The Falcons' defense is vulnerable to the run, but they are playing some of the best pass defense in football, even after losing top cover corner Brent Grimes for the season. Atlanta ranks seventh in the league against the pass with a 5:9 TD-to-INT ratio allowed. Carson Palmer would be a poor bet as a bye-week fill-in.

The Raiders move Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey around enough that it's tough to pinpoint their receiver-cornerback matchups from week to week. My best guess is that Moore will play most of his snaps against weaker RCB Dunta Robinson, while Heyward-Bey returns from his concussion to face LCB Asante Samuel. Whereas Pro Football Focus has graded Samuel as a top-22 cover man this season, Robinson is 81st of 100 cornerback qualifiers. Moore is a strong WR3 bet, and Heyward-Bey should be on benches. ... Brandon Myers impressively secured each of his first 15 targets on the season, but lacks big-play ability and is no more than a role player in the Raiders' offense. He caught one ball for 22 yards last time out. Myers hasn't found pay dirt yet this year and will be relied upon less by Palmer with Heyward-Bey and Moore both back healthy.

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Raiders 17

St. Louis @ Miami

The Dolphins were a consensus bottom-five pick in preseason power rankings, but lo and behold they're shaping up as a sneaky playoff contender and the AFC East's No. 2 team. After back-to-back three-point overtime losses, Miami defeated previously 3-1 Cincinnati at their place and has one of the league's weakest schedules over the next six games. Those matchups are comprised of 3-2 St. Louis, the 2-3 Jets, 2-2 Indianapolis, 2-4 Tennessee, 2-3 Buffalo, and 3-2* Seattle. Both the Rams and Seahawks games are in South Florida. The fantasy impact of the soft slate is that Miami can be competitive throughout the forthcoming stretch, allowing Reggie Bush to maintain consistent workloads. Another positive for Bush is the absence of short-yardage/goal-line back Daniel Thomas due to a second concussion in five weeks. While Bush may not be fully past his nagging knee and hip injuries until after Miami's Week 7 bye, he's a solid Week 6 RB2 against St. Louis' 18th-ranked run defense. Thomas' inactivity increases Bush's chances of finding pay dirt. ... Big-play rookie Lamar Miller will stand in as Bush's primary backup and is worth rostering in 12- to 14-team leagues as a fantasy lottery ticket. Miller is unlikely to touch the ball more than 5-9 times against St. Louis, but is averaging 5.48 YPC and could be a fantasy starter if Bush went down.

The Dolphins made an effort to get Brian Hartline the ball on their first couple of drives last week against the Bengals, though he came away with four catches and 59 yards on five targets. His pair of blowup weeks notwithstanding, Hartline is settling in as a WR3. St. Louis fields a formidable pass defense, but Hartline is Miami's go-to guy in the passing game. I'd still be more than willing to start him. ... Whereas Hartline has a more favorable matchup with Rams outside CBs Bradley Fletcher and Janoris Jenkins, Davone Bess will deal with Cortland Finnegan on all passing downs. Finnegan is a route jumper and efficient tackler in the slot. Don't expect much production from Bess. ... While Ryan Tannehill has shown a ton of rookie-year promise, he's nowhere near fantasy viable with a 2:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 1-of-5 games over 225 passing yards. St. Louis is playing tough pass defense, having allowed a league-low two passing touchdowns and intercepted eight. ... As far as bye-week, fallback option tight end plays go, I'd look at Scott Chandler, Jacob Tamme, and even Tony Scheffler before Anthony Fasano. Fasano is averaging 29 yards a game and would have to score a touchdown to remotely provide worthwhile fantasy production.

Danny Amendola isn't a prototypical No. 1 receiver, but he was a huge part of the Rams' offense as an efficient, chain-moving slot guy invaluable to a short-based passing game. Due to last Thursday night's dislocated collarbone, Amendola will be sidelined until Week 11 at soonest. We'll know more about the Rams' replacement plans once we see it play out on the field, but the safest bet is that St. Louis will lean on a rotation. Look for either Austin Pettis or Steve Smith in the slot, with a committee of Brandon Gibson, Chris Givens, and Brian Quick on the outside. An increased role for TE Lance Kendricks is also possible, although Kendricks is averaging under 18 yards per game. Avoid St. Louis' passing game in Week 6, and we'll revisit what happens next week. ... Game watchers of Cardinals-Rams know Steven Jackson has plenty of power and explosion left in his tank. But the Rams don't get him consistently involved in the passing game, and it's worth wondering if quicker rookie Daryl Richardson might give Miami's impenetrable run defense more issues this week. Ultimately, St. Louis will likely have trouble moving the ball in this matchup. S-Jax is a low-upside RB2 play who should be cheaper than ever to buy low leading up to Week 7.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 16, Rams 10

1:00PM ET Games

Dallas @ Baltimore

DeMarco Murray entered the season in a seemingly ideal on-paper situation. Dallas' offense had the look of an explosive juggernaut, and Murray was coming off a monster rookie-year stretch run. But there were signs of interior-line issues in August, and they've impacted the real games more than anyone could have imagined. Front-seven defenders are relentlessly knifing into Dallas' backfield, and Murray has not displayed an ability to elude them. It's fair to wonder if this is an unfixable mess, because the Cowboys have no difference-making guard/center reinforcements on the way. Baltimore isn't playing shutdown run defense this year, but I expect Murray's struggles to continue on Sunday. I'd view him as a dicey RB2. ... Jason Witten got back on track with a 13-112-1 line two Monday nights ago against the Bears. Although Witten has lost some athleticism and fluidity in his tenth NFL season -- he's more of a "catch and fall" receiver than seam stretcher at this point -- realistically all Witten needed to do was secure footballs thrown at him after a drop-filled start. The targets are going to be there; Witten was leading the league in drops after three games. He's a fine back-end TE1 against SS Bernard Pollard and the Ravens.

Dez Bryant's Week 4 game, before the Week 5 bye, kind of encapsulated him to this point in his career. Bryant played terribly, running incorrect routes, dropping several passes, and getting flagged for dumb penalties. But the Cowboys kept going back to him because they need him, and Bryant finished with 105 yards on eight catches. And for the forward-looking fantasy owner, it's important to remember that the Cowboys need Bryant, so they'll keep going to him. They can't run the ball. They've pegged Miles Austin as a complementary receiver with chronic hamstring problems. Witten isn't the same pass catcher he once was. I called Bryant an early-season buy low, and I'm standing by that. I also think he'll have a blowup Week 6 game against oft-burned Ravens RCB Cary Williams. ... Austin has been too productive to bench in fantasy unless you're filthy receiver rich, but he has a far tougher Sunday draw against slot/LCB Lardarius Webb. Check your expectations for Austin. ... Tony Romo's inconsistency can be maddening and Baltimore plays better pass defense than its No. 22 ranking suggests, although Dean Pees' group still isn't generating consistent pass pressure. The Cowboys' passing offense has struggled under duress, but Romo should have a cleaner pocket Sunday than the "at Baltimore" matchup ordinarily suggests. Romo remains a top-12 quarterback play in Week 6.

The Cowboys' bye came at the right time. They're getting back NT Jay Ratliff (ankle) and LE Kenyon Coleman (knee), two core run stoppers for Dallas' defense. The defensive-line injections obviously don't make Ray Rice bench-able in fantasy leagues, but they could impact the box score in what I anticipate to be a relatively low-scoring game. ... Despite what should have been back-to-back friendly matchups, Joe Flacco has come back to Earth a bit over his past two games, combining for just one passing touchdown against the Browns and Chiefs. The ship hasn't completely sailed on Flacco as a QB1, but he's settling in as more of a week-to-week matchup play. In Week 6, the Cowboys' physical cornerbacks are likely to give Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith problems over the middle and on the perimeter, and Baltimore could have trouble generating consistent ball movement. Dallas has the No. 1 pass defense in football. ... Look for Boldin to match up with slot CB Orlando Scandrick and rover cornerback Brandon Carr in this game, while Morris Claiborne and Mike Jenkins take Smith outside. I'll continue to support Smith as the best weekly bet for production in Baltimore's receiver corps, but Ravens wideouts have tough Week 6 matchups and there's no way around it.

I think this will be a game where no Ravens pass catcher tops 70 or so yards. Much as they have opposing wideouts, the Cowboys are suffocating tight ends. Through five games, no NFC team has allowed fewer catches and yards to the position. Although this is hindsight analysis and in no way beneficial for fantasy owners -- who must think ahead -- Dennis Pitta's two-week production lull is no surprise because Boldin essentially plays the same position as him and is hogging targets and yards. As to which Ravens "inside" receiver will have a bigger Week 6 game, your guess is as good as mine. Boldin looks to me like a low-end WR3. Pitta is a high-end TE2. ... Rice is in the midst of his third top-four fantasy back season in four years. The Cowboys have a viable group to defend Rice in a powerful front five that clogs lanes as speedy ILBs Sean Lee and Bruce Carter track down ball carriers. I'd start Rice because he's Ray Rice, but this game is going to be a battle. I picked the Ravens only because they are at home. Dallas should be quite competitive.

Score Prediction: Ravens 20, Cowboys 17

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers' run-defense ranking reads No. 4 overall at present, but the year-ending loss of RE Adrian Clayborn has not yet been fully realized. Tampa Bay was gashed for 153 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries (4.94 YPC) by the Redskins before the Week 5 bye, and now faces a Chiefs team that does one thing well, and one thing only: Run the football. Smoking-hot Jamaal Charles, the No. 2 overall fantasy running back, was supposed to have a difficult matchup against the Ravens last week. Instead, Charles lit up Baltimore for 161 total yards and currently leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage. He's a matchup-proof, every-week starter. ... Although Shaun Draughn handles a fair amount of passing-down snaps, he and Cyrus Gray are essentially just "breather backs" behind Charles. Draughn is averaging nine touches for 52 yards per week. Gray will be the third-stringer until Peyton Hillis returns from his high ankle sprain. The Chiefs have a Week 7 bye, so I'd look for Hillis to reenter the backfield picture in Week 8 against the division rival Raiders. ... Tony Moeaki is indeed blocking more with Kevin Boss (concussions) on injured reserve. Moeaki has nine catches for 75 scoreless yards on the season. In Week 5, Pro Football Focus charted Moeaki with 68 snaps. He blocked on 52. Leave Moeaki on fantasy waiver wires.

Matt Cassel (concussion) was bad, but be careful what you wish for, Chiefs fans. Brady Quinn can be worse. Incapable of throwing the ball on a beeline, Quinn is one of the least accurate passers of our generation. He's completed 52.5 percent of his career throws, averaging 5.43 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay presents a favorable pass-defense matchup, but it may not matter because Quinn has always struggled to hit open receivers. ... Quinn's insertion adds risk to Dwayne Bowe, but it's difficult to bench top-ten fantasy wideouts regardless of circumstance. The Bucs have only played four games, and they've been tagged for four 100-yard receiving efforts. Fantasy owners should cross their fingers that Quinn simply peppers Bowe with targets. ... Jon Baldwin has clearly passed Steve Breaston for the Chiefs' No. 2 wideout job, but the 2011 first-round pick has five grabs and 76 scoreless yards to show for it over the last two games. Now battling a lingering hamstring injury, Baldwin isn't worth a fantasy start yet. ... Onetime popular sleeper Dexter McCluster bottomed out in Week 5, not getting a single offensive touch. Not a viable Week 6 play before a Week 7 bye, McCluster can safely be dropped in standard leagues.

Saturday Update: The NFL announced Saturday that Bucs top CB Aqib Talib has been suspended four games for violating the league's policy on performance enhancers. He won't play against the Chiefs. Talib almost certainly would have been assigned to Bowe in shadow coverage, and his absence improves Bowe's fantasy matchup. Kansas City's top receiver has a better chance to get consistently open Sunday.

The Chiefs have allowed the fifth most points in the NFL. The Bucs have allowed the sixth most yards. Based on those statistics alone, you might wonder if this game has sneaky shootout potential. Quinn and Josh Freeman's erratic passing will have its say about that, but Vincent Jackson is probably the second strongest fantasy bet on either side of Chiefs-Bucs, behind only Charles and arguably ahead of Bowe. A top-20 fantasy receiver in per-game scoring, V-Jax leads all Bucs would-be pass catchers in targets -- by 16. Particularly until the running game gets going, Jackson is the go-to guy in Bucs rookie playcaller Mike Sullivan's scheme. ... The Chiefs' defense has given up a 10:3 TD-to-INT ratio and the NFL's fifth-highest YPA through five games. Freeman is much too inconsistent for standard-league fantasy quarterback value, but he should be able to get Jackson the ball. ... Whereas split end Jackson will spend most of the game in less reliable RCB Stanford Routt's coverage, flanker Mike Williams will deal with LCB Brandon Flowers for the majority of this contest. The Bucs make little effort to get Williams the ball, just based off 2012 target stats, and he has a more difficult matchup than his receiver teammate. Williams has cleared 60 receiving yards once in four games. Start Jackson, and leave Williams on the bench.

Both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders rank the Bucs as a top-15 run-blocking team. Doug Martin simply didn't look big-league ready in the first month, and there are now strong indications that coach Greg Schiano is poised to revisit the running back-by-committee approach. Though Kansas City hasn't defended the run particularly well this year -- No. 22 ranking and 4.45 YPC allowed -- both Martin and LeGarrette Blount will be dicey flex options in Week 6 because the on-field roles lack clarity. I'd lean toward Martin if deciding between the two, but don't have a strong feel for the carry distribution. We'll know more about the Bucs' backfield after this game.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 20, Bucs 18

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Coach Pat Shurmur hinted early this week that the Browns were actively working to make Trent Richardson an every-down back. On Wednesday, ESPN Cleveland reported T-Rich indeed will replace Chris Ogbonnaya in passing situations, further increasing the first-round rookie's fantasy appeal as Richardson locks himself in as a legit RB1. Already one of the game's most dynamic ball carriers, Richardson is averaging 5.8 yards per touch the past two weeks. The Bengals rank 19th versus the run, surrender 4.41 yards a carry, and have allowed seven rushing TDs in a five-game span. Now adding more reception potential to his repertoire, Richardson is a top-seven Week 6 running back play, behind only Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, and Ray Rice. ... Even with Mohamed Massaquoi and Travis Benjamin continuing to nurse hamstring injuries, the Browns have reverted to last year's receiver-committee approach. Josh Gordon (2-82-2) and slot man Jordan Norwood (9-81) were the go-to guys last week. Greg Little (4-77) was the top producer the week before. Norwood now has a foot injury and looks unlikely to play Sunday, perhaps thrusting Josh Cribbs back into the mix. Needless to say, you'll be hard pressed to find consistent fantasy stats in Cleveland's pass-catching corps. Avoid.

Friday Update: Norwood's injury proved serious, and on Friday he was placed on the injured reserve-recall list, knocking him out for at least the next eight weeks. The Browns listed Benjamin as doubtful for Week 6, Massaquoi as out, and signed undrafted rookie Josh Cooper from the practice squad. Look for Gordon and Little to start against the Bengals, with Cooper probably entering the game on passing downs as a slot receiver. Cribbs would be the No. 4.

I re-watched Miami-Cincinnati on Tuesday, and found the Bengals' play speed to be significantly faster with Bernard Scott in the game, as opposed to BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The offense moved at a crisper pace. With Scott lost for the season, I doubt Cincinnati's run game will ever get off the ground. Green-Ellis has 143 yards on his last 57 carries (2.51 YPC), and playcaller Jay Gruden is already trying to reduce his role. It was Scott seeing increased playing time last week, and it'll be Brian Leonard and Cedric Peerman in Week 6. Green-Ellis' snap count against the Dolphins was a season-low 31. A date with Cleveland's No. 26 run defense could temporarily spike Green-Ellis' perceived value, but his season-long outlook is grim. It feels like I write this every week, but you'll want to unload Green-Ellis as quickly as possible if he has a good game. ... The Browns' pass defense has been shredded recently by wideouts, but Cleveland defends tight ends well with SS T.J. Ward often assigned to them. Just one tight end has found pay dirt against the Browns this year, and only three teams have allowed fewer yards to the position. Without a single game over 64 yards this season, Jermaine Gresham is just a desperation bye-week option at Cleveland.

The return of Joe Haden will make life tougher on A.J. Green, but Green did burn Haden for 110 yards on three catches the last time they met. The No. 1 receiver in all of fantasy, Green can never be benched. ... After lighting up three straight weak defenses in Weeks 2-4, Andy Dalton snapped back to reality against a surprisingly formidable Week 5 foe in Miami. Dalton missed too many open receivers, turned it over three times, and played poorly under pressure. I still have not seen Dalton play well enough against a competitive defense to believe he can sustain top 12-15 fantasy quarterback production into the winter months. Even against the Browns, I think Dalton is bye-week filler at best and ideally a QB2. ... Andrew Hawkins' 13 targets in Week 5 look promising on paper, although they were largely due to shotgun-heavy comeback mode. Seven occurred in the final 20 minutes, with the Bengals trying to erase a 17-6 deficit. Hawkins is a dynamic weapon in the slot, but his playing time remains a concern. I do like Hawkins' Week 6 matchup, as the Browns are minus slot CB Dimitri Patterson (ankle) and will undoubtedly scuffle to replace him. ... Armon Binns has settled in as Cincinnati's primary split end -- ahead of Brandon Tate -- but is the Bengals' No. 4 passing-game option, behind Green, Hawkins, and Gresham. Averaging under 40 yards per game and yet to top 66 in any week yet, Binns should be plastered to your waiver wire.

Score Prediction: Browns 17, Bengals 16

Detroit @ Philadelphia

Michael Vick didn't play nearly as badly in Week 5 as some might lead you to believe. Though he admittedly got off to a rocky, fumble-filled start, Vick had Philly's offense on the move throughout the game. Dating back to Week 5, Vick has completed 38 of his last 57 passes (66.7 percent) for 411 yards (7.2 YPA), three touchdowns, and no picks in a tough division win over the Giants and narrow road loss at Pittsburgh. And I think his season is ready to hit its stride. The Lions do not play imposing pass defense, serving up a 66.1 completion rate to enemy passers and a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio in four games. Detroit's offense also forces opponents to respond aggressively when it pours on points and yards. This can be the matchup and kind of game that jump starts Vick's fantasy season. ... Following a silent Week 4 against the G-Men, Jeremy Maclin looked to be the Eagles' featured receiver early against the Steelers. Despite RCB Ike Taylor's sticky coverage, Maclin created separation and is clearly running well after an early-season hip injury. He's also a full-time player again. Maclin's matchup becomes a lot more favorable this week against Lions rotational RCBs Bill Bentley, a struggling third-round rookie out of Louisiana-Lafayette, and journeyman Jacob Lacey. DeSean Jackson gets the tougher draw, as he'll face off with LCB Chris Houston on the majority of Sunday's snaps. I think Maclin can have a breakout Week 6 game.

Last week's goal-line TD pass to Brent Celek was the tight end's first of the year. Aside from a fluky 157-yard outburst in Week 2, Celek has yet to top 65 yards in any game this season and is entrenched as a TE2. ... Pedestrian slot man Jason Avant works the same area of the field as Celek and is averaging 32 yards a game. Avant would be an incredibly unaggressive bye-week WR3. ... The Lions have a lot of big-name defensive linemen, but have never played stout run defense under DC Gunther Cunningham. They'll also be without NT Corey Williams (knee) on Sunday. Although LeSean McCoy was held in check from a rushing standpoint by the Steelers last week, he found pay dirt on a receiving score and is going to have a monster game eventually. McCoy is the No. 12 fantasy back through five games. In his last meeting with the Lions -- in 2010 against a similar-looking front four -- McCoy lit up Detroit for 128 yards and three touchdowns.

I think the Lions' early-season offensive woes have been due in some part to tough defenses, but for the most part to identity crisis. Detroit led the NFL in pass attempts last year, and defensive-minded head coach Jim Schwartz doesn't want to do that again. The Lions are already on their second starting tailback of the season -- and not because the first one got hurt -- and they could be headed toward No. 3 if Jahvid Best returns from PUP as soon as the franchise hopes. Running successfully on the Eagles is going to be a struggle. In a 180 from last year, Philadelphia's front seven is actually defending the run better than rushing the passer, permitting under four yards per carry to opposing ground attacks, and one rushing score through five games. Revealing himself to be a volume-dependent back short on big-play ability, Mikel Leshoure is averaging 3.23 yards per carry and has yet to break off a gain of longer than 15 yards on 47 touches. Perhaps Leshoure will reacquire some burst coming off the bye, but for now he's just a low-end RB2 in this matchup. ... Joique Bell is the Lions' temporary change-of-pace back, averaging eight touches over the past three games while Kevin Smith hasn't handled the rock since Week 2. Neither Bell nor Smith is a Week 6 fantasy option, and the former's value is fleeting with Best apparently on his way back.

Philadelphia hasn't sacked a quarterback in two games, which for the Eagles means they're due. They have way too much D-Line talent for the drought to continue. Philly is going to give Matthew Stafford all he can handle with a top-nine pass defense allowing a putrid 5.78 YPA and NFC-low 53.6 completion rate. The Eagles have a 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio against. Stafford will eventually pick it up, but he has a brutal upcoming three-game stretch against Philly, Chicago, and Seattle. Stafford started painfully slow, and he may not get a whole lot better in the immediate future. ... The Lions' 2012 target distribution: Calvin Johnson 43, Brandon Pettigrew 35, Nate Burleson 31, Titus Young and Bell 16, and Tony Scheffler 14. ... Megatron starts no matter the matchup. He's on pace for a 116-1,692-4 line, and the TDs will come up. ... Pettigrew is a poor player, but the ball goes to him in Detroit's offense enough to keep Pettigrew afloat as a back-end TE1. Keep in mind the Eagles are stingy against tight ends, allowing an average weekly stat line of 5.5 catches for 42 yards to the position. Only one tight end has scored a touchdown on Philadelphia this season. ... Burleson is heavily targeted, but barely averages over nine yards a catch and has one touchdown in his last six games. Don't be shocked if he begins losing snaps to Ryan Broyles after the bye. ... Young has been an early-season disappointment with one productive game out of four. Battling ongoing knee soreness, Young needs to display box-score production before becoming fantasy viable.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Lions 20

Oakland @ Atlanta

Whereas the Steelers got Rashard Mendenhall back after a Week 4 bye and the Cowboys will receive a defensive line injection via NT Jay Ratliff, the Raiders have no such luck. Oakland's pass defense was blown to smithereens by early-season injuries to first-team CBs Ronald Bartell (fractured shoulder) and Shawntae Spencer (foot sprain), and both remain on the mend. In their first four games, the Raiders allowed Ryan Tannehill, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning to complete a combined 108-of-150 passes (72 percent) for 1,153 yards (7.69 YPA), and a 9:0 TD-to-INT ratio, with a tenth touchdown coming on a rushing score by Tannehill. That's right, Oakland hasn't intercepted a pass all season. Matt Ryan is the No. 2 overall fantasy quarterback, and he should light this group up. ... Tony Gonzalez entered Week 5 ranked first in fantasy tight end scoring and distanced himself from the pack with a 13/123/1 line against the Redskins. Gonzalez is 36 1/2 years old, but he won't be slowing down anytime soon in a pass-heavy offense benefiting from linebacker and strong safety coverage between two wideouts who command constant defensive attention. The Raiders recently began using free safety Michael Huff at corner to help compensate for Bartell and Spencer. They've been gutted by tight ends since, surrendering 19 receptions and four touchdowns to tight ends in their last three games.

Ryan's 2012 target distribution: Gonzalez 47, Julio Jones 46, Roddy White 45, Harry Douglas 16, Jacquizz Rodgers 14, Michael Turner 13. ... White was the featured wideout in playcaller Dirk Koetter's Week 4 game plan (12 targets). Jones was the go-to guy last week (15 targets). Against as bad a pass defense as Oakland's, White, Jones, and Gonzalez can all get theirs. Start 'em. ... Turner retook his clear-cut lead back role in Week 5, gaining only 69 yards on 20 touches but finding fourth-quarter pay dirt from 13 yards out against a worn-down Redskins defense. Rodgers touched the ball four times on offense. The Raiders rank 24th against the run, and Atlanta's high-octane passing offense sets up scoring chances for its red-zone runner. Just beware that Turner's schedule stiffens following Atlanta's Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8 through 12, Turner will face one run defense ranked lower than 15th in the NFL. Turner's two-year penchant for slowing down late in seasons is another long-range concern for his fantasy stock. He remains a recommended sell high in all leagues. ... Rodgers continues to provide little optimism that he'll ever take the reins as a featurable back. "Quizz" excels in the pass game, but struggles to run inside the tackles and possesses unimpressive short-area burst. He is averaging 2.72 YPC on 29 carries this season.

I went back and watched all of Darren McFadden's Week 4 runs before Oakland's open date and noticed from him an inability to exploit first- and second-level running room due to what my eyes told me was diminished explosion. In Oakland's first four games, McFadden certainly displayed less violence as a runner, most notably by running out of bounds when in years past he would have cut upfield. That all sounds bad, but there are promising signs for forward-looking McFadden owners. His workload is secure, his bye out of the way, and each of his next three games come against run defenses ranked 22nd or worse. Over the last month, Atlanta's 27th-ranked group has served up 562 yards and four touchdowns on 100 carries to opposing rushers. That's a 5.62 YPC clip. Falcons leading tackler SLB Stephen Nicholas (ankle) also may not play this week. Fire up McFadden and hope the Raiders keep this game close. ... The Falcons' defense is vulnerable to the run, but they are playing some of the best pass defense in football, even after losing top cover corner Brent Grimes for the season. Atlanta ranks seventh in the league against the pass with a 5:9 TD-to-INT ratio allowed. Carson Palmer would be a poor bet as a bye-week fill-in.

The Raiders move Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey around enough that it's tough to pinpoint their receiver-cornerback matchups from week to week. My best guess is that Moore will play most of his snaps against weaker RCB Dunta Robinson, while Heyward-Bey returns from his concussion to face LCB Asante Samuel. Whereas Pro Football Focus has graded Samuel as a top-22 cover man this season, Robinson is 81st of 100 cornerback qualifiers. Moore is a strong WR3 bet, and Heyward-Bey should be on benches. ... Brandon Myers impressively secured each of his first 15 targets on the season, but lacks big-play ability and is no more than a role player in the Raiders' offense. He caught one ball for 22 yards last time out. Myers hasn't found pay dirt yet this year and will be relied upon less by Palmer with Heyward-Bey and Moore both back healthy.

Score Prediction: Falcons 28, Raiders 17

St. Louis @ Miami

The Dolphins were a consensus bottom-five pick in preseason power rankings, but lo and behold they're shaping up as a sneaky playoff contender and the AFC East's No. 2 team. After back-to-back three-point overtime losses, Miami defeated previously 3-1 Cincinnati at their place and has one of the league's weakest schedules over the next six games. Those matchups are comprised of 3-2 St. Louis, the 2-3 Jets, 2-2 Indianapolis, 2-4 Tennessee, 2-3 Buffalo, and 3-2* Seattle. Both the Rams and Seahawks games are in South Florida. The fantasy impact of the soft slate is that Miami can be competitive throughout the forthcoming stretch, allowing Reggie Bush to maintain consistent workloads. Another positive for Bush is the absence of short-yardage/goal-line back Daniel Thomas due to a second concussion in five weeks. While Bush may not be fully past his nagging knee and hip injuries until after Miami's Week 7 bye, he's a solid Week 6 RB2 against St. Louis' 18th-ranked run defense. Thomas' inactivity increases Bush's chances of finding pay dirt. ... Big-play rookie Lamar Miller will stand in as Bush's primary backup and is worth rostering in 12- to 14-team leagues as a fantasy lottery ticket. Miller is unlikely to touch the ball more than 5-9 times against St. Louis, but is averaging 5.48 YPC and could be a fantasy starter if Bush went down.

The Dolphins made an effort to get Brian Hartline the ball on their first couple of drives last week against the Bengals, though he came away with four catches and 59 yards on five targets. His pair of blowup weeks notwithstanding, Hartline is settling in as a WR3. St. Louis fields a formidable pass defense, but Hartline is Miami's go-to guy in the passing game. I'd still be more than willing to start him. ... Whereas Hartline has a more favorable matchup with Rams outside CBs Bradley Fletcher and Janoris Jenkins, Davone Bess will deal with Cortland Finnegan on all passing downs. Finnegan is a route jumper and efficient tackler in the slot. Don't expect much production from Bess. ... While Ryan Tannehill has shown a ton of rookie-year promise, he's nowhere near fantasy viable with a 2:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 1-of-5 games over 225 passing yards. St. Louis is playing tough pass defense, having allowed a league-low two passing touchdowns and intercepted eight. ... As far as bye-week, fallback option tight end plays go, I'd look at Scott Chandler, Jacob Tamme, and even Tony Scheffler before Anthony Fasano. Fasano is averaging 29 yards a game and would have to score a touchdown to remotely provide worthwhile fantasy production.

Danny Amendola isn't a prototypical No. 1 receiver, but he was a huge part of the Rams' offense as an efficient, chain-moving slot guy invaluable to a short-based passing game. Due to last Thursday night's dislocated collarbone, Amendola will be sidelined until Week 11 at soonest. We'll know more about the Rams' replacement plans once we see it play out on the field, but the safest bet is that St. Louis will lean on a rotation. Look for either Austin Pettis or Steve Smith in the slot, with a committee of Brandon Gibson, Chris Givens, and Brian Quick on the outside. An increased role for TE Lance Kendricks is also possible, although Kendricks is averaging under 18 yards per game. Avoid St. Louis' passing game in Week 6, and we'll revisit what happens next week. ... Game watchers of Cardinals-Rams know Steven Jackson has plenty of power and explosion left in his tank. But the Rams don't get him consistently involved in the passing game, and it's worth wondering if quicker rookie Daryl Richardson might give Miami's impenetrable run defense more issues this week. Ultimately, St. Louis will likely have trouble moving the ball in this matchup. S-Jax is a low-upside RB2 play who should be cheaper than ever to buy low leading up to Week 7.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 16, Rams 10

Indianapolis @ NY Jets

Mark Sanchez has completed 54 of his last 127 passes (42.5 percent) for 697 yards (5.49 YPA), and a 2:5 TD-to-INT ratio. He's also fumbled four times, while the Jets' offense has generated two touchdowns on its last 45 possessions. Rex Ryan's defense and Mike Westhoff's special teams deserve credit for keeping last Monday's game close against the Texans, but the Jets simply lack a functional offense. Not even a matchup with Indy's 19th-ranked defense is likely to bust the Jets' offensive slump. ... Although the Colts' primary defensive weakness is against the run, Jets "starting" tailback Shonn Greene has received 11 or fewer touches in three of his past four games. He hasn't scored a touchdown since the opener. Greene is involved in an even timeshare with Bilal Powell, and each Jets runner is no more than a low-upside flex despite the favorable matchup. ... Dustin Keller is apparently due back from his hamstring strain on Sunday, but he hasn't played in a month and has experienced multiple setbacks since first going down in the third preseason game. Let's see him make it a couple of quarters unscathed before picking Keller up.

One Week 6 positive for New York's offense will be the absence of Colts top pass rusher Robert Mathis, who's out 2-3 weeks with a knee sprain. Transitioning smoothly from end to 3-4 outside linebacker, Mathis was leading Indy in sacks (5) and forced fumbles (1) and ranked fifth on the team in tackles (16). Sanchez should have a cleaner pocket Sunday, giving him more time to connect with impressive fill-in starter Jeremy Kerley. Kerley played 47-of-60 snaps (78.3 percent) against Houston and likely earned more going forward by securing 5-of-7 targets for a team-high 94 yards. Kerley is worth a look as a bye-week WR3. ... Chaz Schilens, Jason Hill, and hobbled rookie Stephen Hill (hamstring) are the other candidates for Jets receiver snaps on Sunday. Along with Keller, the motley crew behind Kerley should be avoided in Week 6 fantasy lineup decisions.

New Colts starting tailback Vick Ballard's skill level doesn't jump off the page. He's a limited, two-down runner with average burst and little in the way of moves. But Ballard is a solid bet for 14-18 weekly carries in an improving Colts offense, and he couldn't ask for a better Week 6 matchup to kick start his first-team stint. The Jets' run defense is getting shredded. Over its last three games, Rex Ryan's unit has been lit up for 599 yards and six touchdowns on 122 carries (4.91 YPC). The 122 rushing attempts against are easily a league high over that three-week stretch and suggest opponents are noticing the extent of the front seven's susceptibility on game tape. Colts interim coach Bruce Arians is a philosophically pass-first mind, but there is reason to think he might enter this game with more of a run-based approach. Ballard is worth saddling up as a fantasy flex play. ... Returning from an ankle sprain, Mewelde Moore will operate as the Colts' passing-down back. Plodding Delone Carter will finally be padded up, but didn't receive a carry in the first four games.

Reggie Wayne leads the NFL in targets and would likely also lead the league in fantasy receiver scoring if not for an early-season bye. Expectations should be checked as he squares off with red-hot Jets shadow CB Antonio Cromartie, but Wayne moves around the formation enough to avoid "Cro" on a healthy dose of plays. Cromartie doesn't follow receivers into the slot. ... Andrew Luck was magical in Indy's Week 5 comeback win over the Packers, and Arians' pass-first attack will keep him flirting with borderline QB1 value all year. Luck quietly leads the AFC in pass attempts per game. Supporting-cast concerns leave the jury out on Luck's outlook as a legitimate every-week starter, but he's certainly a viable bye-week play. ... Donnie Avery's Week 5 box score didn't meet expectations with Wayne hogging production, but Avery came up just short of a 50-plus-yard touchdown bomb on a Luck overthrow and again has a more favorable on-paper matchup than Wayne. Look for Avery to square off often with torch-able Jets CB Kyle Wilson. He's a worthwhile dice-roll WR3. ... Rookies T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen all have promising NFL futures, but the target and receiving production behind Wayne and Avery will be difficult to predict week by week. Hilton is a No. 3 receiver. Allen has caught a couple of red-zone touchdowns, but hasn't cleared 40 receiving yards yet. Fleener is averaging 19 yards per game since the opener.

Score Prediction: Colts 21, Jets 17

4:05PM ET Games

Buffalo @ Arizona

Fred Jacksoncould be a top-15 fantasy back if the Bills didn't have C.J. Spiller. Spiller could be a top-five RB1 if Buffalo didn't have Jackson. But they're stuck with each other, and Chan Gailey won't stop using one just so the other can put up great stats. "You want to play them as equal as possible and then see how the game is going," said Gailey this week. Unfortunately from a fantasy perspective, the equal timeshare puts a ceiling of about 16 touches on each Bills back, and they're running behind a rag-tag line. Forced to sign street free agent linemen this week, Buffalo has lost OG Colin Brown (hamstring) to injured reserve, LT Cordy Glenn and RG Kraig Urbik to multi-week ankle injuries, and top reserve OG Chad Rinehart to a recurring calf injury. Particularly in tough matchups like this -- Arizona surrenders just 3.60 YPC and has allowed one rushing TD in five games -- F-Jax and Spiller are difficult to justify as more than low-end RB2/flex options. I'd continue to lean toward Spiller if deciding between the two just because he's more the homerun hitter, but there are a slew of factors working against this fantasy situation right now.

Buffalo's O-Line woes can be exposed by an aggressive Arizona defensive front. A Dick LeBeau disciple, Cardinals DC Ray Horton believes in the zone blitz and is coordinating a defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in sacks. Now-healthy Darnell Dockett can be a major issue for the Urbik-, Brown-, and Rinehart-less Bills interior. Ryan Fitzpatrick has flukily thrown 12 early-year touchdown passes, but I wouldn't feel comfortable trotting him out as more than a desperation QB1. ... Stevie Johnson should be able to create separation against Patrick Peterson with crisp route running and quicks. Johnson's yards and scoring have been down the past two games, but he caught six balls in Week 5 and is the lone Bills skill-position player I'd feel good starting on Sunday. ... Fitzpatrick's target distribution on the season: Johnson 46, Scott Chandler 29, Donald Jones 23, T.J. Graham 17, Spiller 11, Tashard Choice 7, Fred Jackson 4. ... The book is out on Chandler, and it's probably not changing anytime soon. He can score touchdowns, but brings to the table little else.

The Bills' defensive makeover has backfired spectacularly. Dave Wannstedt's group is second to last in the league in both points and yardage allowed. It will also be without RE Mark Anderson (knee) indefinitely. At home in the desert, the stage is set for some offensive fireworks from Arizona, making Kevin Kolb an intriguing two-quarterback league option and gambling man's QB1 streamer. Kolb can be a moderately effective pocket passer with time to throw, and Buffalo's defensive performance in the first five games suggests Kolb will have some. ... Larry Fitzgerald should tire out Bills RCB Stephon Gilmore, who continues to look in over his head as a rookie. Fitzgerald won't get many matchups more favorable than this over the course of the season. ... Bills LCB Aaron Williams got burned on 49ers fourth receiver Kyle Williams' 43-yard touchdown in Week 5 and is similarly struggling. Andre Roberts has been an inconsistent WR3 option, but he should be open frequently against Buffalo. ... First-round pick Michael Floyd's snaps were on the rise until he dropped an easy pass against the Rams and was flagged for offensive pass interference. The Cardinals should feel no urgency to play Floyd because Roberts has been so much better.

Arizona's backfield is a fantasy quagmire with Ryan Williams gone for the year and Beanie Wells out until at least Week 12. 5-foot-7, 185-pound scatback/return specialist La'Rod Stephens-Howling is tentatively expected to start this game, although ESPN's Adam Schefter has reported that William Powell will "likely" handle the majority of the carries. Alfonso Smith didn't make the Cardinals' roster out of training camp, but is a veteran in the system and also in the mix. Powell is a shot in the dark behind an offensive line that run blocks as poorly as any unit in football, but he looks like the best Week 6 bet as a flex play. The Bills rank 30th against the run, although they possess front-seven personnel to win the trench battle in this game. ... Rob Housler has plenty of talent and athleticism to be a fantasy asset, but he's yet to hit 50 yards through five appearances and could lose snaps if Todd Heap (knee) returns. It's not a great fantasy situation.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, Bills 17

New England @ Seattle

Because Seattle's defense eliminates run games and puts brakes on perimeter passing with physical press coverage, the best way to attack Pete Carroll's unit is over the middle and down the seam. Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker should be integral to New England's chances of generating ball movement. Welker has the best matchup of any Patriots receiver, squaring off with 31-year-old Seattle slot corner Marcus Trufant. Hernandez will deal with the Seahawks' nickel linebackers and safeties. I think those are the two Patriots pass catchers owners should fire up this week with supreme confidence. ... On the other hand, tough Week 6 sledding is in store for Brandon Lloyd. Lloyd plays nearly 90 percent of his snaps on the outside, where he'll have to fend off LCB Richard Sherman and RCB Brandon Browner's relentless jamming at the line. Lloyd may experience two slow weeks in a row with Antonio Cromartie's Jets next on the schedule, though fantasy owners should eye a forthcoming three-week stretch against the Rams, Bills, and Colts in Weeks 8-11, with a Week 9 bye mixed in. Lloyd struggled last Sunday (3-34), drawing Champ Bailey throughout the game despite Denver's previous tendency to leave Bailey on one side of the field. But for Lloyd, there should be brighter days ahead. He's just a WR3 in this particular game.

Friday Update: Whether it's typical Belichickian injury report games or an actual setback, Hernandez was held out of Friday's practice and listed as questionable on the injury report. The questionable tag has less meaning because the Patriots listed fourteen players as questionable for Week 6. But the missed practice is concerning. Patriots beat writers throughout the week seemed confident Hernandez would make his return against Seattle. Now, we're going to have to closely monitor reports leading into Sunday morning. The guess here remains that Hernandez will play on Sunday, but his fantasy owners need to have a late-game fallback tight end option at the ready.

Saturday Update: The Boston Globe reported Saturday that Hernandez is expected to be active against the Seahawks, but is likely to be on a snap count and be utilized as a "platoon" type receiver. Beat writer Greg Bedard suggested Hernandez might only get 15-20 plays. Sunday's weather forecast in Seattle calls for a 90-percent chance of rain, so the Pats may err on the side of caution with such a valuable player trying to play through a tricky ankle injury. If I own someone like Kyle Rudolph, I'm leaning toward him over Hernandez in fantasy lineup decisions.

New England's fast-paced, Oregon-style offense is paying major box-score dividends. The Pats lead the NFL in sheer plays from scrimmage, contributing to their league-leading totals in points scored, yards gained, and first downs. The matchup is difficult for Tom Brady, but he's perhaps the hottest quarterback in the game right now. Brady has completed 76 of his last 112 passes (67.9 percent) for 928 yards (8.29 YPA), and a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio, also scrambling in two more scores. Perhaps Brady is more mid-range QB1 than top-three option this week, but I'd be hard pressed to entertain the thought of benching him. ... Rob Gronkowski may handle a few more blocking assignments with Hernandez back and Welker playing far too well for a role reduction, but there still isn't a better bet for week-to-week touchdowns at the tight end position. ... Stevan Ridley's fumbles are concerning to me, and regular readers know I've been a huge Ridley backer from the get-go. But there is a precedent for Ridley being benched for fumbling, and he's put the ball on the ground in two straight weeks. The Patriots also have viable alternatives in straight-line speedster Brandon Bolden and healthy Shane Vereen. Before Sunday, I'd put in an offer of Ridley to the Adrian Peterson and/or Ryan Mathews owner. Ridley's value may not get any higher than it is right now. And I expect the Patriots to struggle to run the ball against Seattle. Everyone does.

The Seahawks' offense is the most one-dimensional in football, and there are no signs that it will change. Still averaging just 25 pass attempts per week, Russell Wilson has topped 160 passing yards in 1-of-5 games and has a 5:6 TD-to-INT ratio on the season. Seattle's offensive approach makes Wilson a low-upside QB2, and his receivers similarly struggle for production on a weekly basis. ... Wilson's target distribution: Sidney Rice 28, Golden Tate 18, Zach Miller and Doug Baldwin 14, Anthony McCoy 13. ... Rice and Tate are low-ceiling rolls of the dice. I like Tate's matchup better down the left sideline against Patriots RCBs Kyle Arrington and Sterling Moore. Pats LCB Devin McCourty has been sensational in coverage and will match up with Rice for most of this game. ... Like Gary Kubiak in Houston, Pete Carroll isn't worried about wearing out his feature back. Marshawn Lynch is second in the NFL in carries and on pace for 362 over the course of the year. Even in difficult matchups like this one -- New England ranks eighth against the run and is permitting 3.40 YPC -- Lynch maintains consistency due to the mammoth workloads. Carroll is willing to continue feeding Lynch the rock even when his team falls behind.

Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Seahawks 16

4:25PM ET Games

NY Giants @ San Francisco

Last week, three games had over-unders in excess of 50 points. This time around, not a single game has a plus-50 over-under and Giants-Niners is a kind of microcosm of the week. I like both of these offenses, but I don't necessarily love the way they match up with the opposing defense and would lean toward projecting a low-scoring outcome. These teams played twice last year to final scores of 20-17 and 27-20. So, not quite scoring bonanzas. I'd probably bench any borderline starters -- Domenik Hixon, Rueben Randle, Mario Manningham -- and move forward only with the studs. ... Vernon Davis comes to mind as a locked-in stud with big-game potential. The Giants are in rough shape at safety, where Kenny Phillips (MCL sprain) will miss his second straight game and Antrel Rolle is dealing with a lingering patella injury. In January's playoffs, Davis exploded on the G-Men for 112 yards and two TDs. New York's defense is more poorly equipped to handle him now. ... The Giants were much tougher on Michael Crabtree in that aforementioned game, holding him to one catch for three yards. In last year's 49ers-Giants regular season matchup, the G-Men held Crabtree to one catch for 21 yards. Despite last week's good-looking box score, I don't think much of Crabtree as a fantasy player and would have no problem benching him this week.

Frank Gore continues to be a recommended sell-high, but use him if you've got him. The 49ers are in no rush to install short-yardage vulture Brandon Jacobs as a game-day contributor; he was a healthy scratch in Week 5. Coming off a 14-106-1 line against the Bills, Gore gets another favorable matchup against a New York defense that continues to be vulnerable versus the run. The 16th-ranked unit has been touched up for an average of 4.53 yards per rushing attempt and may not get better until DT Chris Canty (knee) comes off PUP. Get Gore rolling. ... Alex Smith is a two-quarterback league option, but nothing more. Don't go chasing last week's fluky stats against the Bills. ... Colin Kaepernick played a significant role again in Week 5, handling the ball five times and generating 46 yards and a touchdown. Pro Football Focus charted Kaepernick with a career-high 20 snaps last week. While not a realistic standalone fantasy option at this point, Kaepernick's skill set and small-sample productivity hint at big upside were he to ever replace Smith.

The one Giant who stands out as having a noticeably strong matchup based on last year's two meetings with the Niners is Victor Cruz. Matching up with slot CB Carlos Rogers, Cruz torched San Francisco for 16 catches and 226 yards combined. ... Martellus Bennett had the look of an early-season tight end difference maker, but his fantasy stock may be circling the drain. Bennett hyperextended his left knee in Week 5 against the Browns and returned to the game as an in-line blocker for Ahmad Bradshaw. On Wednesday, Bennett acknowledged that he "messed some sh-t up" in the knee, which sounds like something that threatens seriously to affect his on-field performance, particularly in the passing game. Bennett needs to be on fantasy benches until we see his box-score production pick back up. And we may wait awhile. ... Hakeem Nicks (knee, foot) is shaping up as a full-blown game-time decision. The last time we questioned whether he could produce on the rebound from an injury, though, Nicks dog-walked Aqib Talib for 199 yards and a touchdown on 10 receptions in Week 2. Nicks is worth the wait on Sunday if you secure a viable late-game fallback like Hixon. I also think Nicks' return would make life easier on Cruz in the slot.

Friday Update: Nicks participated in a limited practice for the second consecutive day Friday. While he's "questionable" on the injury report, that may only be a precautionary listing. Nicks expressed confidence that he'll play against the Niners, and the signs all look good. Roster Hixon or perhaps Manningham as a safety valve if one of them is available on the waiver wire, but for now I'd expect Nicks to play. Bennett, by the way, is listed as probable and will definitely be in the starting lineup against San Francisco.

Whereas the Giants' run game is likely to struggle in Week 6 no matter what happened last Sunday against the Browns, I think Eli Manning can have success throwing the football on the Niners. San Francisco ranks second in the league in pass defense, but its pass rushers aren't getting home. Vic Fangio's defense has generated just nine sacks through five games, and the Giants' O-Line has allowed one sack of Eli since the opener. Manning topped 300 yards in both of last year's Giants-49ers games, also throwing four touchdown passes. ... Bradshaw deserves credit for running hard and smart in last week's drubbing of Cleveland en route to career highs in carries, touches, and yards. Considering Bradshaw's history of foot injuries, though, I think it's fair to question whether he'll bounce back with the same kind of effectiveness. Bradshaw was also a product of his situation to a large extent. The Browns lost MLB D'Qwell Jackson (concussion) and NT Ahtyba Rubin (leg) to injuries over the course of the game. With Andre Brown (concussion) out again, Giants coaches spoke this week of increasing David Wilson's role. Although Wilson's workload seems likely to stay in the single-digits, he may give the G-Men their best chance to formulate a rushing attack against San Francisco's immovable front with superior speed and elusiveness. Try to sell Bradshaw high before Sunday's game, and view him as a flex only if you can't swing a deal.

Score Prediction: 49ers 20, Giants 17

Minnesota @ Washington

Offenses generally operate at peak efficiency when they're not disrupted by defenses. And since losing OLB Brian Orakpo to a Week 2 pectoral tear, the Redskins have shown little capability of hindering enemy offenses. Washington has surrendered 84 points over its last three games, as Bengals, Bucs, and Falcons passers have combined to complete 78-of-119 (65.5 percent) throws for 1,045 yards (8.78 YPA), and a 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio against the Redskins. Beyond Matt Ryan, that's not quite an All-Pro quarterback cast. Christian Ponder has earned elite QB2 status, and is worth a look for QB1 streamers due to his favorable matchup. The Vikings will move the ball via the air in this game. ... The Skins are using seventh-round rookie Richard Crawford at slot corner, where he was victimized by Bengals WR Andrew Hawkins for a 59-yard touchdown in Week 3 but hasn't faced much in the way of dynamic slot receivers in the last two weeks. That will change Sunday when Crawford squares off with Percy Harvin, who is the best slot receiver in football. Over his last 16 games dating back to last season, Harvin has 1,191 yards and seven touchdowns on 107 receptions. He's rushed 52 times for 254 yards (4.88 YPC) and three more scores, plus an 11th TD on a kickoff return. Not including returns, it's an average of over 90 total yards per game.

There's no great explanation for Adrian Peterson's four-game scoring drought. Just to be sure, I used Tuesday night to go back and watch all of 17 his Week 5 runs, and came away impressed by Peterson's explosive lateral movements and physical pushing of the pile. Harvin did "vulture" an early rushing touchdown, taking a zone-read handoff from Ponder and diving in for the first-quarter score. But that's not a sign of things to come, and I wouldn't be surprised if Peterson led the NFL in rushing TDs over the final 12 games. Start Peterson if you've got him, and trade for him before kickoff if you don't. He's never been so available. ... Jerome Simpson was a hot waiver wire claim a few weeks back, but he's experiencing weakness in his lower leg brought on by a back injury. Coming off a catch-less game, Simpson won't be a fantasy option for the foreseeable future. Look for Simpson in a decoy role. ... Red-zone touchdowns have kept Kyle Rudolph's fantasy value afloat, but he's only on pace for 61 catches and 541 yards. Expect Rudolph's production between the 20s to pick up moving forward, as the Vikings have used John Carlson and Rhett Ellison on the line more to free up Rudolph for increased pass catching. The Redskins have also been generous to tight ends. Only the Titans have allowed more catches and touchdowns to opposing TEs through five games.

Despite his questionable tag, Robert Griffin III (concussion) is fully expected to play against the Vikings. Due to this game's late start, RG3 owners would be savvy to secure another 4PM-or-after fantasy QB2. Ponder and Kevin Kolb come to mind. ... Just keep in mind this is no cakewalk matchup for Griffin and his receivers. Minnesota fielded one of the NFL's poorest pass defenses in 2011, but Leslie Frazier has turned the group around. Rejuvenated by the return of RCB Chris Cook, healthy slot CB Antoine Winfield, and addition of promising nickel LCB Josh Robinson, the Vikings rank a formidable 15th versus the pass and have always put heat on the quarterback. Top to bottom, Minnesota has a top-ten defense. ... I'd be less concerned with Alfred Morris' matchup than Griffin's, though. Washington's zone-blocking scheme is matchup proof when it's clicking, and it's clicking. I recall some fantasy-land concern about Morris entering Week 4 against the Bucs, when Tampa Bay was ranked first in the league in run defense. Morris shredded them for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (5.38 YPC). Morris is a confident RB2 play in Week 6.

Pierre Garcon is clearly still working his way back from an early-season foot sprain, and it's fair to wonder if he should be playing at all. "He's battling it," OC Kyle Shanahan admitted this week. "It hurts him to run." Garcon was targeted seven times in Week 5, but dropped two and generated just 24 yards. Garcon is to the point where we need to see him produce before recommending starting him. He's just not playing well enough right now. ... Leonard Hankerson was surprisingly demoted out of the Week 5 starting lineup and played single-digit snaps against the Falcons. Hankerson can be dropped in fantasy leagues. ... Josh Morgan got the nod in place of Hankerson and caught one ball for four yards. The Skins value blocking ability above all else at the wideout position opposite Garcon, and that doesn't help much in fantasy. ... After his Week 5 77-yard touchdown catch, which came on a busted coverage, the Redskins spoke this week of increasing Santana Moss' role. If inserted into the starting lineup in place of Morgan, Moss could certainly bring more playmaking ability to the table. There are no indications that will happen, though. ... Fred Davis isn't a legit fantasy starter, but he's worth a look as bye-week filler. The Redskins lack clarity in the receiver corps, and tight ends can be Cover-2 beaters. Frazier runs a lot of Cover 2.

Friday Update: Garcon was a late addition to Friday's injury report and is now listed as questionable for Week 6. The D.C. beat writers seem to expect Garcon to play, but it's no sure thing and he may not be anywhere close to 100 percent even if he's active. Redskins receivers are shaping up as a corps to avoid in fantasy lineup decisions this week. If Garcon didn't play, the Skins could turn to Hankerson or perhaps back to Aldrick Robinson.

Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Redskins 20

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay @ Houston

Due to the reduced role of Andre Johnson -- we'll get there in a minute -- I think it's fair to suggest Owen Daniels has emerged as the No. 1 pass option in Houston's offense. The stats are certainly in Daniels' favor. He leads the Texans in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. Tight ends have given Green Bay fits due to shaky safety play and CB/FS Charles Woodson's fading cover skills. I like Daniels to stay hot in this matchup. ... Johnson's targets and production are down this season, but so are his snaps. It's almost as if the Texans are trying to "save" him after Johnson missed 12 games over the previous two seasons. Ordinarily about a 98-percent player, Johnson is down to 79 percent this year. All of this will likely be water under the bridge when the Texans get into a shootout, of course. They haven't played a team with a winning record yet. The Packers will be able to put points on the Brian Cushing-less Texans, and Houston will have to respond by throwing the ball. Look for a rebound week from Johnson. ... Matt Schaub's target distribution on the season: Daniels 33, Johnson 30, Kevin Walter 21, James Casey 19, Arian Foster 17, Keshawn Martin 10. ... Casey is making a run at Walter to be the Texans' third pass option. The Houston pass catchers behind Daniels and Johnson remain hands-off in fantasy.

The Packers have played better run defense than their No. 17 ranking indicates, but Foster is matchup-proof when he leads the NFL in touches with no slowdown in sight. Keeping pace with his draft status as the No. 1 pick in most leagues, Foster ranks No. 1 in running back scoring. ... Ben Tate (toe) is tentatively expected to be healthy after missing Week 5. Tate's usage is often minimal unless the Texans are blowing out opponents, though, and I don't expect them to blow out the Packers. Tate is an RB3/4 until we see him back in a significant game-day role. ... Justin Forsett returns to third-string duties after playing poorly against the Jets last Monday and can be dropped in all leagues. ... Andrew Luck's heroic Week 5 comeback against the Packers exposed Green Bay's pass-defense deficiencies. Woodson seems to be fading fast, and LCB Tramon Williams is good, but not a shutdown corner. Schaub is worth a look as a bye-week plug-and-play and will pay dividends if this evolves into a high-scoring affair.

It's no secret that the timing of Green Bay's pass offense has been off early in the season. Aaron Rodgers is so good that he still ranks sixth in fantasy quarterback points and No. 5 over the past three weeks. The Packers toyed with the idea of a balanced offense before Cedric Benson's foot injury, but they may revert to a decidedly pass-heavy approach the rest of the way. The Texans are playing top-four pass defense, but Rodgers can pile up attempts, and that's great news for his fantasy outlook. ... Sometimes-shadow CB Johnathan Joseph has been struggling with a groin injury. He was picked on in last Monday's narrow win over the Jets, getting beat by both Jeremy Kerley and cornerback convert Antonio Cromartie for long gains. I wouldn't be afraid of Joseph shutting down Jordy Nelson. ... Jermichael Finley has a shoulder injury, and Packers No. 2 TE D.J. Williams is battling hamstring woes. Greg Jennings is out again with lingering groin soreness. With no reliable threat at tight end, Green Bay may look more to James Jones on possession-type routes. Jones is always a good bet for touchdowns when he's playing a lot of snaps, and he'll be an every-down receiver against the Texans, likely squaring off often with LCB Kareem Jackson.

In the pass game, the Packers can exploit Cushing's absence with movable chess piece Randall Cobb. The Texans will be vulnerable in underneath coverage of backs and outlet receivers, and Cobb has strung together back-to-back productive games as his snap counts have continued to rise. He's worth a genuine look as a Week 6 WR3 or flex play. ... Coach Mike McCarthy confirmed this week that Alex Green would receive the "first crack" at Green Bay's lead back job. Although the Packers still don't trust Green to be a full-time player or protect Rodgers in the hurry-up attack, he'll be fantasy owners' best bet in the absence of Benson. Green possesses impressive cutting ability and surprising long speed for a 230-pound man. Just don't expect more than 12-15 touches in a rough matchup with Houston's top-nine run defense. ... John Kuhn will still be the favorite for goal-line carries going forward, and James Starks lurks as a fallback option should Green falter. McCarthy promises to ride the hot hand.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Texans 23

Monday Night Football

Denver @ San Diego

At 49.5 points, Broncos-Chargers has the highest over-under of Week 6. Both teams' offenses match up well with the opposing defense, particularly the Denver pass game against San Diego's secondary. Continuing to prove the naysayers wrong in what so far has been a top-three fantasy quarterback season, Peyton Manning's stats if you leave out the first quarter of the Falcons game have improved to 123-of-187 (65.8 percent) for 1,454 yards (7.77 YPA), 11 TDs, and zero INTs through five games. He's all the way back, and will face San Diego's No. 20 pass defense in this week's Monday nighter. ... The Chargers' run defense ranking is No. 5 overall, but I'm not buying them as a shutdown unit. Their 3.74 YPC allowed is good but not great, and they've faced what hindsight tells us is a weak running back schedule, aside from Jamaal Charles. (Charles lit them up for 111 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5.18 YPC.) More involved in the pass game the past two weeks -- he has a combined 11 catches on 12 targets -- Willis McGahee should not struggle to run on this group. In his last three meetings with San Diego, McGahee has gone off for 321 yards and two scores on 54 rushing attempts, good for a red-hot average of 5.94 yards a pop.

Remember the preseason debate? Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker; which receiver would be Manning's "No. 1"? Demaryius is winning that battle. Thomas leads Denver in targets on the season, and only Brian Hartline and Reggie Wayne have more receiving yards in the entire NFL. The Chargers' pass defense has allowed an 11:6 TD-to-INT ratio against while averaging just two sacks per game. Manning will have success picking on this unit, and Thomas is his go-to guy. ... Just based on early-season performance, Thomas also gets a more favorable coverage draw than Decker in Week 6. Thomas runs the majority of his routes down the left sideline, where he'll deal with RCB Antoine Cason. Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer is susceptible deep, but still covers the short to intermediate portions well. Decker remains a solid fantasy start, but I'd again bet on Thomas leading Denver in receiving this week. ... Manning's target distribution on the year: Thomas 46, Decker 44, Jacob Tamme 36, Brandon Stokley 20, McGahee 17, Joel Dreessen 16. ... Tamme has theoretically been targeted enough to achieve back-end TE1 status, but he's barely averaging over eight yards a catch and isn't scoring touchdowns. Tamme is the only Broncos pass catcher worth consideration behind Thomas and Decker, and he's just a fantasy backup.

Fantasy-minded folks know the truth, but Norv Turner might come out of this Ryan Mathews thing looking like a genius. Slow-playing Mathews in his Week 3 return, punishing him for no real good reason in Week 4, and lengthening his Week 5 leash before unleashing him in Week 6 could make it all appear to be some perfectly-designed plan. And the results will look really good if Mathews stays healthy and plays like he's capable. A dynamite, big-play back with explosive burst, moves, and power, Mathews was San Diego's best player in last Sunday's loss to New Orleans. He'll now deal with a Denver defense that ranks 21st against the run and has never been able to stop him. In three career meetings with the Broncos, Mathews has 382 yards on 72 carries (5.31 YPC) and three touchdowns. He's rushed for 120-plus yards in each of those games, and chipped in 31 additional yards on five receptions. Because the Broncos are so proficient at getting after opposing quarterbacks but leaky against the run, Mathews will continue to be the Chargers' best bet for ball movement on Monday night. ... Jackie Battle's unearned starting job has been stripped as fast as it was assigned, and he'll be reduced to ineffective pace-change back the rest of the way. Mathews owners can hold onto Battle as a handcuff, but that's all he is. ... Mathews is ready to explode. He'll face one run defense ranked higher than 19th in his next seven games.

It's popular to dance on Antonio Gates' grave. He's obviously done; look at this box score! Gates isn't done, though, and that couldn't have been clearer against the Saints. Gates still runs well, the Chargers are still trying to get him the ball in scoring position, and the statistics are soon to follow. Slow starts suck, but fantasy owners need to keep eyes ahead. An improved run game to distract double teams will be a difference maker for Gates' chances of getting open, and he needs to be started in projected shootouts like this. He's still San Diego's best receiver. ... Philip Rivers has scuffled against the Broncos recently, completing a combined 58-of-102 passes (56.9 percent) for 751 yards (7.36 YPA), two touchdowns, and two interceptions in his last three dates with Denver. With LT Jared Gaither (groin) hobbled, it's hard to trust Rivers' protection. I think he's a matchup play at this point, and this isn't a great matchup. ... The Broncos have used Champ Bailey in unpredictable ways this year. He shadowed Brandon Lloyd all over the field in Week 5 after playing 80 percent of his snaps in the first four games as strictly a left corner. Here's guessing Denver doesn't think enough of Malcom Floyd to follow him around with Bailey, and Champ stays "home" at LCB for the majority of Monday night. If so, he's going to deal with Robert Meachem for most of the game. Floyd would get the more favorable draw against Broncos RCB Tracy Porter.

Friday Update: In his post-practice press conference, Turner indicated that Gaither is unlikely to play against the Broncos after missing practice on both Thursday and Friday. Broncos RE Elvis Dumervil should be licking his chops. Backup LT Mike Harris, an undrafted rookie who played right tackle at UCLA, was an early-season turnstile playing in Gaither's place, almost single-handedly torpedoing San Diego's passing offense. Rivers and deep threats Meachem and Floyd could have trouble connecting on Monday night if Gaither is indeed inactive. Look for the Chargers to lean on Mathews in this game.