Thursday, February 26, 2015

Charting historical trajectories

Is the United States at the apogee of its power and
prosperity?

That question presupposes that history is dynamic and not
static. Hoping that an aspect of life or existence will attain equilibrium, as I
often do, is generally pointless. The cosmos is dynamic. Careful examination of
anything reveals a dynamism; periods of waning inexorably follow periods of
waxing, seen in the cycles of the moon, life that moves from youthful energy to
the tiredness of old age, etc. In total, the cosmos appears to move toward
entropy, the dissipation of its energy.

Correctly discerning the direction of flow can provide an individual
with life-giving information, e.g., knowing the tide tables can help a skipper
avoiding grounding her or his vessel.

Is the United States at the apogee of its power and
prosperity?

Several indicators suggest that the US has passed its apogee
and now heads toward an inevitable decline:

The apparent increase in
the political influence of the wealthy and the growing economic disparity between
the wealthy and the poor suggest that a plutocracy may be pushing
democracy aside. Something similar happened in ancient Rome. Democracy
engenders innovation, energy, and loyalty that a plutocracy cannot match.

US global hegemony,
perhaps at its peak at the end of the Cold War, seems certain to decline
as China's economy overtakes the US economy in size, with India's economy
poised to follow suit.

Chinese and Indian
citizens, who are less assured of affluence and therefore have less to
lose, are more likely to push for greater democracy; US citizens appear willing
to trade security and comfort for freedom. They may also be more willing
to take risks, and therefore to be more creative and prolific inventors
and entrepreneurs than US citizens.

The huge and relatively
constant proportion of the US gross domestic product tied to wasteful
defense spending. The US spends a higher percentage of its total economic
output on defense than does any other state and yet faces less of an
existential threat, because of its geography, population, and excessive military
strength than do most other states. Meanwhile, the US underfunds both the effective
education of its citizens and investment in critical infrastructure.

The credence given to
superstition and myth, with a concurrent disregard of science, is glaringly
manifest in unnecessary death and contagion (e.g., the silly ideas, which have
no scientific basis, that measles vaccine can cause autism or that humans are
not the result of evolutionary processes). No allegedly developed nation
is more handicapped in these ways than is the US, handicaps that appear to
be increasing instead of diminishing.

Not all indicators are negative:

Lower oil prices,
especially if coupled with increased reliance on alternative energy
sources, may reverse the flow of oil wealth from petroleum importing states
(e.g., the US) to oil exporters (e.g., OPEC members). If the US becomes a
net oil exporter, that might also reverse the flow of US wealth. Rapidly
growing Chinese demand for oil could magnify the positive effects of these
trends for the US.

To the extent that the US
becomes a more just society (think of increasing racial justice, increasing
equality for women, and diminishing gender bias), the odds of US democracy
continuing to survive improve.

History is rarely linear, i.e., history rarely moves in a
consistent direction. Short-term reversals do not necessarily presage a long-term
decline. Where do you want the US to go in the future? What can you do to make
that future more likely to happen?

Ultimately, the future of the US seems tied to both the
future of the world and of the globe. World
future connotes the flattening of the world; the futures of all humans are
increasingly linked. Our best hope for the future is if competitive nationalism
and selfish atavism yield to an emerging awareness of a human community that
transcends all differences and respects all people equally. Global future connotes the
interdependence of all life. Unless we, and a majority of other humans, accept
responsibility for our duties as stewards of nature, we will destroy the
planet's ability to sustain human and most other forms of life.