The Palin effect

An insurgent and a familiar face both finish strongly

FOUR days before Georgia's primary election, three of the leading Republican candidates for governor gripped, grinned and sweated at a rally in suburban Atlanta organised by the state's tea-party movement. Karen Handel, John Oxendine and Nathan Deal worked the exhibition hall hard, fighting for every vote in a race that grew tighter as election day grew nearer. For much of the race Mr Oxendine, the state's insurance commissioner, enjoyed a commanding lead. But on July 12th Sarah Palin endorsed Ms Handel, calling her a “pro-life, pro-constitutionalist with a can-do attitude”. That helped: a Mason-Dixon poll taken before the endorsement had Mr Oxendine leading by eight points; shortly after it, Ms Handel was ahead by seven.

The lead held. Ms Handel came top of the primary heap, but fell short of a majority. She will therefore face Mr Deal, who finished second, in a run-off on August 10th. That election will pit an insurgent against an establishment Republican. Ms Handel is a Palin-endorsed, self-styled outsider, whose mail-shot sniffed that “the good ole boys are politics as usual”. Mr Deal served nine terms in Congress, six in the Georgia Senate, and was endorsed by Newt Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and potential presidential candidate in 2012.

The primary fleshed out their lines of attack. Ms Handel's opponents accused her of being too soft on abortion and gay rights, while she attacked them for ethical failings (the Office of Congressional Ethics alleged that Mr Deal used his office to protect a programme that enriched him, and that he exceeded the limit on outside income). The primary was notable not just for the shifting fortunes of its candidates—three polls taken within ten days of each other in July showed three different candidates leading the pack—but also for the intense silliness of the late-race silly season.

All seven candidates were socially and politically conservative, which led to a rather frantic search for distinction. During a debate Mr Deal expressed support for an Arizona law that requires police to check the immigration status of anyone they have “reasonable suspicion” is in America illegally. That counts as a mainstream position in Georgia, supported by 68% of Georgians and by Roy Barnes, the Democrats' candidate for governor. Mr Oxendine said he wanted to sue the federal government to recoup the costs of educating, imprisoning and caring for illegal immigrants. That was not enough for Eric Johnson, a state senator, who advocated putting illegal immigrants in prison camps; or for Ray McBerry, who said they should be rounded up, bused to Washington and dropped off at the White House.

On the Democratic side the story was simpler. Mr Barnes, who served a term as Georgia's governor from 1999 to 2003 and was ousted by Sonny Perdue after leading a costly fight to remove the Confederate emblem from the state flag, won outright. This puts him in good standing heading into the general election: he can campaign and raise money (he has already raised more than any candidate in either party) while his opponents battle each other. Ms Palin's endorsement helped Ms Handel with Republican voters. Whether it has the same power in a general election remains an open question.