Blog Archives

Updated: March 15th 2018

Back in November, I released the first draft of my 2018 positional rookie rankings. Today, I will revisit the rankings and go deeper than before (TWSS?). Before we get started, please remember that we are still early in the draft process. All of these players just completed the combine and as of this writing, none have yet had a pro day or an individual workout. We’ll likely learn more about some prospects before this article even gets published; we’ll surely know a lot more a month from now. As in November, I did struggle at times as to whether the rankings should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted. Ultimately, I am ranking based more so on expected fantasy value than predicted draft order but the two are highly correlated. I’ll post separate fantasy and NFL mock drafts in April so you’ll be able to see where the two values diverge. I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position and designated tiers. For more detailed analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper and check out my “RSO Rookie Rundown” series.

Note: this was written prior to the retirement of Adam Breneman.

Quarterbacks

My quarterback rankings are likely more controversial than my rankings at other positions. I truly believe that Josh Rosen is the most NFL-ready of the top prospects and as such I still rank him first. I don’t think he will be drafted first at that position but honestly that might do more to help his fantasy stock than hurt it. I have been low on Sam Darnold and Josh Allen since October so their rankings should come as no surprise. The more I watch and read about Lamar Jackson, the more impressed I am with him as a quarterback; don’t believe the WR narrative. I am much higher on Mason Rudolph than many analysts. He may be a little stiff but he was highly productive, excelled in some advanced metrics and was a quiet leader in Stillwater. I think Rudolph will get drafted by a team who benches him for Year One only to give him the keys to the car to start Year Two (i.e. Pat Mahomes). Luke Falk and Mike White find themselves ahead of the next tier due to their elite size and above average production. Of the rest, my picks for guys who may move up the rankings are JT Barrett and Chase Litton. Barrett was a proven winner at one of the nation’s best programs so I won’t count him out yet. Litton threw too many interceptions in college but is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the class and as such will get a shot somewhere.

Running Backs

No change at the top for me. It’s Barkley well above Guice and Chubb. Jones, Penny and Michel are the next tier and are all very close. I have not elevated Sony Michel as high as some others because I am wary of the recency effect. Michel was in the RB5-10 range all season and one great game against Oklahoma shouldn’t really change that. All of the things we “learned” against Oklahoma were already baked into Michel’s ranking. We knew he could catch the ball, we knew he was explosive, we knew he didn’t need 20 carries to make a difference, etc. To bump him higher based off that one game is essentially a double counting accounting error. Freeman (early in the season), Balage (at the combine) and Johnson (late in the season) are an interesting tier as they all flashed at different times. I’m intrigued by Balage and his combination of size and athleticism; I want to study him more and could slide him up into the third tier. Two big names that have slid down the rankings are Josh Adams and Bo Scarborough. Both concern me because of their size: running backs as tall as they are just don’t often succeed in the NFL (which is also a concern for Balage). There are three FCS prospects on the list (Martez Carter, Chase Edmonds, Roc Thomas). My favorite of that group is Martez Carter. He is short and stout and is a dynamic pass catcher. Edmonds showed out at the combine and will likely move up NFL Draft boards. I’m not a fan of John Kelly because he has a lack of production, size and speed that worries me even though he’s starting to get some buzz. If I had to pick one mid- to late-round pick that will have the biggest immediate impact in the NFL, it might be Ito Smith. Smith was a very good blocker according to PFF’s metrics and is a fantastic receiver (40+ catches each of the last three seasons).

Wide Receivers

I have had Calvin Ridley as my WR1 since the start of the year and I have not been discouraged by the mediocre stats or his middling combine performance. I still believe in Ridley’s raw ability and think that he’s the best of this class. Unlike last year, this class lacks a Top 10 talent so Ridley may be artificially moved up draft boards simply because he may be the best at a position of need. Many other analysts have either Washington or Sutton at WR1 and I can’t really argue with that. They both out-produced Ridley over their careers and each have their own athletic attributes. Ironically, both Washington and Sutton are the only two to have a teammate also make this list so maybe I’m undervaluing just how dominant they could have been on another team. I love all of the guys in my second tier and I don’t think NFL teams will go wrong with any of them. If I was an NFL GM I would probably pass on Ridley in the first and instead grab one of Miller, Moore, Kirk or Gallup in the second. All four have a similar profile: they are versatile, quick and can make spectacular catches. Auden Tate is a big, pun intended, wildcard for me because his sample size is so small (just 65 career catches). However, he has the size and body control to be a true X receiver in the league. Dante Pettis is being too undervalued right now in my opinion. Many analysts seem to have forgotten all about him. He was a four year contributor on a championship contending team. He’ll get on the field early with his punt return and run after catch ability, maybe like how Tyreek Hill started his career, and could be a late round steal in fantasy drafts. Allen Lazard has fallen far down my rankings, mostly because he just failed to impress me at points this past season. There is talk of him moving to TE which would do wonders for his fantasy value. There are three guys in the bottom tiers who are more talented than their rankings: Cain and Callaway (off the field issues) and James (injury). I ended up watching a number of Syracuse games this year and became a fan of Steve Ishmael. He had a fantastic 105-1,347-7 line while playing for a bad Orange team. He has good size and made a number of big-time catches in the games I watched him play against Florida State and Clemson.

Tight Ends

The consensus opinion currently states that Mark Andrews is the best player at the position but I strongly disagree. I did not see enough out of Andrews for me to think he could be a starting NFL tight end. I would feel much more confident drafting one of the other top four for my squad. Goedert is the most well rounded player in the group and he’s such a likable person to boot. Gesicki and Hurst are right with Goedert. Gesicki is an incredible athlete but has a wrap for being a poor blocker. Hurst is underrated because he doesn’t score much (just 3 career TDs) but catches a lot of balls and can block better than most in the class. Adam Breneman has serious injury concerns which drags down his potential – if it weren’t for his history of knee injuries he could be atop this group (Editor’s Note: Breneman has since retired from football). Tight end was a difficult position to rank for me because there were few prospects I had a great feel for. Admittedly, everybody past Troy Fumagalli is a dart throw. Chances are that your fantasy league won’t need to draft the position deeper than that but if you do, I provided a bunch of names of guys to keep on your radar. I prioritized players with either great size or great production – very few had both – and left off some players who might be selected in the NFL Draft but likely have no shot at factoring in fantasy-wise. If you have to go deeper, take the guy who gets drafted highest, regardless of where he ended up in my ranking because there’s so little between TE7 and TE13. The two at the bottom, Yurachek and Akins, are truly deep sleepers. Both are undersized, “move” tight ends who could see a hybrid TE/WR role in the NFL. Teams may be less hesitant to draft somebody of their size and speed after the success of Evan Engram in 2017.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Both of these teams have endured some coaching carousel drama over the last month. NC State’s Dave Doeren was an early target in Tennessee’s never-ending coach search but ultimately he spurned the Vols to stick with the Wolfpack. Doeren has NC State playing in their fourth straight bowl and should the team stay competitive next year he’ll probably be in the running for an even bigger job at the end of 2018. Arizona State made the odd, in my opinion, hire of Herm Edwards. Herm is a master motivator for sure but Herm has not been involved with the college game since 1989. Even more odd is that outgoing coach Todd Graham is sticking around to coach the bowl.

Arizona State’s offense is led by two NFL hopefuls in senior RB Kalen Ballage and sophomore WR N’Keal Harry. Ballage is a big back at 6’3″ and 230lbs. His size concerns me because few backs have been successful in the NFL at that height. Since 2010, only four backs have measured 6’2″ and 225lbs or bigger at the combine: Derrick Henry, Matt Jones, Dominique Brown and James Wilder. Henry has potential but he has not yet earned the starting role in Tennessee and teams may be hesitant to roll the dice on a big back like Ballage. Ballage has not handled a full load in any of his four seasons but he is a productive pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016, 19 this year). His high number of carries came this year with 153. He has under 2,000 yards in his career. I’m just not able to get that excited about him, honestly. I have read comparisons to David Johnson but I think that is crazy: Johnson was more than twice as productive in most stat categories in college. Ballage will get drafted in fantasy leagues but it won’t be by me. The other big name for the Sun Devils is WR N’Keal Harry. Harry is not draft eligible so it’s not worth a deep dive yet but you will hear his name constantly next season. He has elite height (6’4″) and has been very productive as a young receiver on a mediocre team (career line of 131-1,659-12). Add Harry to your 2019 short list now!

North Carolina State has three draft prospects that I will touch on. First and foremost is DE Bradley Chubb. I mentioned Chubb a few times in the middle of the season when NC State was looking like it could challenge Clemson for the conference title. He has 25 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career. Chubb is relentless and should be a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Sadly, he’s banged up and may miss the bowl game. On offense, QB Ryan Finley and TE Jaylen Samuels are the two to watch. Samuels is one of my favorite players of the season because he transcends position. He is listed as a TE but he’s really too small to play the position in the NFL. Instead he’ll probably factor in as a hybrid RB, FB, TE who lines up all over the field. To give you an idea of Samuels’ versatility, look at his 2017 stats: 68 receptions, 547 receiving yards, 4 rushing TDs, 72 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Samuels was the only player in the FBS with more than 65 receptions and rushing attempts. More so than any other prospect, Samuels’ 2018 fantasy value relies heavily on his landing spot. If he gets drafted by a team with a creative offense he could turn into the ultimate third down and short yardage weapon. Finley is a late round quarterback prospect that is hard for me to get excited about. He should add a few pounds to his 6’4″ frame because he’s listed at just 210lbs and may be lighter. He’s efficient and does not turn the ball over often. Finley does have another year of eligibility so we could see him come back for another season to improve his draft stock. WalterFootball.com has him as QB16 for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him as QB14 in his 2019 class. If he can show a more prolific side to his game in 2018, he could become a mid-rounder next year.

Even if it weren’t for the Sun Devils coaching distractions, I would have gone for NC State because Arizona State’s defense is so bad. Prediction: North Carolina State

I don’t care what the name of this bowl is, it’s the Rose Bowl to me. I hate the fact that with the new CFP we lose the historical tradition of some of the biggest games. The folks running the Cotton Bowl got themselves a doozy of a matchup with two Power 5 conference champions and a slew of NFL prospects. Covering each and every one of the draft hopefuls in this game is impossible – I will touch on a few but by no means is this a comprehensive list.

Let’s start with Ohio State. By now, we have all heard and participated in the debate about whether or not Ohio State should have been in the playoff. I fear that topic will be prominent during the telecast and will overshadow some of the great players on the field for the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett improved on a number of stats this season but probably hurt his chances of playing quarterback in the NFL after poor performances in three big games (against Iowa, Michigan [before the injury], and Wisconsin). I don’t have an opinion yet on whether Barrett should enter the draft process as a QB but my gut says he will. The RB duo of freshman JK Dobbins and redshirt sophomore Mike Weber was very productive (nearly 2,000 combined rushing yards and 17 TDs). Dobbins took advantage of an early, and lingering, injury to Weber to steal the lead role. If Weber comes out for the 2018 draft, I think his stock is less now than it was four months ago. He could return but it’s clear he won’t be the first choice back. Maybe he transfers, sits out a year, and dominates at a lower level Power 5 school in 2019. I listed Weber as my RB13 in November so if he does come out he’s a mid-rounder at best. The strength of Ohio State’s team lies outside of the offensive skill positions. Drafttek.com has six Buckeyes ranked in their Top 10 NFL draft prospects from the Big Ten: three defensive linemen (Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Dante Booker), one corner (Denzel Ward) and two offensive linemen (Jamarco Jones and Billy Price). I’ll venture a guess that four of the six go in the first round (Ward, Hubbard, Price, Jones) with the other two following on Day Two. The best prospect on the defense, sophomore DE Nick Bosa, is not yet draft eligible but he’d be a first rounder too if he were.

The biggest name on USC’s team is QB Sam Darnold but he has really hurt his draft stock this season. Darnold was a walking turnover in 2017: 12 INTs and 10 fumbles (7 of which were lost). Elite quarterback prospects just can’t turn the ball over that often; for comparison, Rosen (13) and Mayfield (5) combine for fewer turnovers than Darnold. Darnold is only a redshirt sophomore so he is young and still has two more years of eligibility should he decide to return to college for further seasoning. Ultimately, I think Darnold comes out and is a Top 3 pick because of the potential the he has shown. Despite his turnovers, the yardage, scoring and efficiency are all above average. He’s also an above average runner with enough speed to earn first downs when flushed from the pocket. What Darnold has that doesn’t show up in the box score is his confidence and swagger. If I had to pick one college QB to lead my team in a comeback, I would take Darnold because he wouldn’t shrink from the challenge. One negative: Darnold’s throwing motion. I noticed this in the offseason and plan on watching more film before the draft to see if it’s improved. Darnold’s favorite receiver is WR Deontay Burnett. Burnett is undersized (6’0″ and 170lbs) so he likely won’t garner early round attention but I’ve raved about him numeroustimes this season. A close size comp for Burnett would be Travis Benjamin who was a 4th round pick back in 2012. Burnett was good, but not great, this season going for 74-975-9. I started the season low on RB Ronald Jones but I came around by mid-September. He is just so quick and agile that it’s almost not fair to defenders. I was previously concerned about his size but no longer. Even though he missed a game due to injury, Jones totaled 1,486 yards and 18 rushing TDs; he added 13 receptions for 165 yards and another score. After a down game against Notre Dame, Jones ended the season strong with over 800 yards and 10 TDs in the last five games. He’s fun to watch and I am so happy he won’t be skipping the Cotton Bowl. On defense, the Trojans have a number of prospects including Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Gustin missed most of the season, and is doubtful for the bowl, but could get drafted based on a solid sophomore season if he comes out (68 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks). Smith is a prototypical MLB who has 263 career tackles and has been a big part of the USC defense for three years; according to WalterFootball.com he is looking at a mid-round grade.

Ohio State’s defense will be the best unit on the field and is strong enough to limit Darnold and Jones. I expect the Buckeyes to win in a game where they beat USC in time of possession. Prediction: Ohio State

As far as the NFL Draft prospects go this matchup is all about Louisville, let’s touch on Mississippi State first though. QB Nick Fitzgerald could be an interesting study in 2019 but I don’t think he has enough of a resume to warrant coming out for 2018, especially after a season-ending ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving. NFLDraftScout.com has him as the QB6 in his 2019 draft class. Fitzgerald will need to improve on his efficiency in 2018 because he doesn’t complete enough passes (55.6%) and throws too many INTs (15:11 ratio this season). He’s a tremendous rushing threat with 33 career rushing TDs and nearly 2,500 yards but that won’t matter to scouts if he’s missing throws. The backup QB is freshman Keytaon Thompson. I don’t think I have seen any of Thompson play this season but I am intrigued by the combination of his size (6’4″ 222lbs) and rushing ability (he played in nine games this season totaling 299 yards and 3 TDs rushing). Thompson played significant snaps in the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss after Fitzgerald went down so at least he’s not coming in cold. He rushed for 121 yards and a score but only completed 13 of his 27 passes for 195 yards. I came across the name of DB JT Gray on NDT Scouting’s website while researching potential draft prospects from Mississippi State. He has played at both linebacker and safety and his listed measureables are similar to those of Jabril Peppers who was a first rounder last year; maybe he could be a poor man’s Pepper in the late rounds. Per Pro Football Focus, Gray did not allow a single TD in coverage this year and the passer rating against him was 70.4 which is above average.

Louisville has their own DB, Jaire Alexander, who excels in those same metrics. Alexander has also shut out opposing receivers and, this is not a typo, has allowed a passer rating against of just 17.7. For comparison, a QB who had one completion for negative nine yards would have a rating of 16. Alexander allowed just five receptions on the season and ranks 5th in PFF’s “Cover Snaps per Reception” stat, meaning he is in coverage a lot and allows few receptions. Alexander declared for the 2018 draft already and is skipping the bowl so you won’t get to see him play against Mississippi State but you’ll see him playing on Sundays soon. You may be thinking to yourself, how has he not mentioned Lamar Jackson yet? You’re right I may be burying the lede but Jackson has been talked about ad nauseam on every platform this season. That includes me too: I tagged Jackson in eight of my weekly The Watch List pieces and focused on him in my preseason preview. Talk of Jackson changing position is useless, in my opinion, because Jackson will go into the NFL as a quarterback. If anything, the brief spark of Deshaun Watson this season shows NFL teams that a lightning quick deep-ball thrower with accuracy issues can still lead a team to victory. Some team will take Jackson in the first round but I don’t think I’ll be taking him in any of my fantasy drafts. Jackson’s top target is junior WR Jaylen Smith. Smith is 6’4″ and 219lbs which is great size for a receiver but it’s his speed and deep-ball ability that makes him a threat to the defense. To illustrate this, despite his size, only three of his 53 receptions came in the red zone; meanwhile he had seven receptions of 25+ yards. He totaled 873 yards and 6 TDs (he missed three games due to a wrist injury). I’m not as high on Smith as some, including our friends at Dynasty Command Center who have him as their WR5 for 2018 rookies. Jackson and Smith versus the stout Bulldog defense will be fun to watch, regardless of what you think of their NFL chances.

Iowa State had a whirlwind of a season. Get it? The Cyclones had a whirlwind…. okay, okay I’ll stop. Seriously though, Iowa State was a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. They had a number of interesting story lines throughout the season including 1) an up-and-coming head coach in Matt Campbell, 2) jack-of-all-trades Joel Lanning playing at both LB and QB in a number of games, 3) the continued emergence of RB David Montgomery, 4) the revolving door at quarterback including underclassmen, walk-ons and transfers and 5) the upset of #3 Oklahoma and #4 TCU. Montgomery is fantastic. He has good speed, is amazing at breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact and is a reliable receiver. He is just a sophomore so he’s not coming out in 2018 but there’s a chance he is my top RB next year. Leading receiver Allen Lazard is a 6’5″ red zone monster (15 of his 25 career touchdowns came inside the twenty). I think Lazard is underappreciated as far as draftniks go. I had him as WR13 a few weeks ago but will likely move him up into the WR10 range. The Iowa State defense has played well most of the season and is led by emotional leader Joel Lanning (the aforementioned former QB). As much as I enjoy rooting for Lanning, I don’t think he’ll be considered by NFL teams.

Memphis has an incredibly efficient and high scoring offense that will be fun to watch against the solid Iowa State defense. QB Riley Ferguson is a former Tennessee transfer who has played exceptionally well in his two seasons at Memphis. Ferguson throws a lot of touchdowns, completes more than 63% of his passes, has never thrown more than 10 INTs in a season and has 10 career rushing touchdowns. He’s also 6’4″; like Ryan Finley at NC State he is just 210lbs so needs to add some weight for the NFL. I think Ferguson sneaks up NFL draft boards and gets taken on Day Two. Ferguson’s top target was undoubtedly WR Anthony Miller. I fell in love with Miller in the preseason when I jokingly compared him to Antonio Brown. In hindsight that comp may have been more accurate than I could have guessed. Miller caught 92 balls for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs. Miller has unreal hands, great body control and is tough. If you watched the AAC Championship game you might recall how exhausted and banged up he was yet he was on the field and still making plays when it mattered the most. I want him on my NFL team and my fantasy team and I don’t care what pick it takes. In September, I had him at 2.02 for 2018 rookie drafts but now I would even be willing to part with a late first for him.

By the rankings this may not be the best game of the day but I bet it’s the most entertaining. The Tigers offense is just too good to stop. Prediction: Memphis

This PAC-12 vs Big Ten matchup definitely has less going for it than the Ohio State vs USC matchup but it’s still a game with some key NFL prospects to keep an eye on. Thankfully, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley confirmed back in November that he planned to play in the team’s bowl game.

Penn State was looking like a favorite to make the playoff when they were ranked #2 in late October but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State put an end to that. Even the most casual of fan knows about Barkley and I have covered him exhaustively for RSO. In fact, I tagged Barkley in thirteen different articles this season. My deepest dive on Barkley came in the preseason in my Big Ten conference preview. At some point you just run out of things to say but he was so dominant at points he just demanded to be discussed. Barkley ran the ball less this year but he increased his yards per attempt (5.5 to 5.7) and became more involved as a receiver (47 receptions, 594 yards and 3 TDs). He’ll likely be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick and will be the unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy rookie drafts. QB Trace McSorley is also draft eligible but he will probably return for another season. He won’t be able to improve on his size (just 6’0″ and 202lbs) but he can continue to improve his efficiency and yards per attempt. The pass catcher with the highest draft grade in my opinion will be TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki went for 51-501-9 this season and had one of my favorite highlights of the season when he hurdled McSorley after a touchdown. Penn State keeps track of some combine-like measureables and supposedly Gesicki ran a 4.54 40 yard dash – that is crazy good for somebody his size. I expect that number to increase at the combine, it must be the benefit of some “home cooking,” but still he’s looking at a favorable size/speed comp to the likes of Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The first round may be too early for Gesicki realistically but he’s a Day Two guy at worst. The Nittany Lions’ top defensive prospect is senior safety Marcus Allen. I researched him in the preseason and was nonplussed. I felt he needed to show scouts that he was equally as good in coverage as he is in run support. He still succeeded in run support (just two missed tackles against the run per Pro Football Focus) but he only had one interception (the first of his career) and had just two pass break-ups (just ten in his career). He’ll probably start his career as a situational player and won’t be an IDP factor right away unless he can prove he should stay on the field for every snap.

Washington QB Jake Browning finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2016 after a huge 43 TD season. Unfortunately for Huskies fans, that season was the outlier for Browning as he returned to his 2015 levels with just 18 TDs this year. His completion percentage did increase significantly this year (62.1% to 68.8%) but all of his other rate stats decreased. One of my favorite plays in football is the quick kick from a quarterback and Browning excels at that: he has 11 career punts, averaging about 35 yards per kick. The two offensive standouts are WR Dante Pettis and RB Myles Gaskin. I’ve never been a huge fan of either and I am willing to admit it is probably an east coast bias since I don’t see them play that often. I previewed Pettis in the preseason and expressed concerns that his size would limit him in the NFL. Pettis played in thirteen games each of his first three seasons so he’s avoid any long-term injuries but he is currently hurt (but probabl for the bowl game). He is a good receiver (averaging 40 receptions, 500 yards and 6 TDs per year over his four year career) but a better punt returner (9 career punt return TDs, including 4 in 2017). He’s currently my WR8 and should find himself drafted in the late second round. RB Myles Gaskin is ranked a little lower in my positional rankings (RB13) but he’s somebody that I definitely need to revisit. Gaskin’s numbers are great and if they were attached to a different name I would probably be higher on him. He rushed for 1,282 yards this season and rushed for 19 TDs. He also added 18 grabs for 228 yards and 3 receiving scores. He has been consistent, and healthy, throughout his three year career. He’s gone over 1,300 total yards each year and has 47 career TDs. He’s slightly undersized (think Theo Riddick) but not so small that he can’t play a heavy role in an NFL offense. On defense, LB Azeem Victor and DT Vita Vea are both likley Day Two prospects. Victor’s college career has been marred by injuries and off-field issues (he was suspended to start 2017 for a failed drug test and was suspended late in the season after a DUI arrest). In 2015, his only full season, Victor had 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Vea is an agile, space-eating DT who could end up going in the late first if he dominates the combine. Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports had Vea going 19th overall in his December 5th mock; Trapasso thinks that Vea may be the most physically strong prospect in the entire draft class.

Given the strength of the two defenses, I expect this one to be a low scoring affair. I’ll take the team with the best player on the field. Prediction: Penn State

The Orange Bowl may feature two Top 10 teams but I’m just not finding the matchup all that intriguing. I was down on Miami for most of the season before the team imploded against an unranked Pitt team and laid an egg against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. At least Wisconsin was competitive in their conference championship and proved that they belonged in the playoff conversation despite a weak schedule.

Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier was overrated, in my opinion, during Miami’s unbeaten run to start the season. He ranks 89th in adjusted completion percentage according to Pro Football Focus; that metric is meant to give a better picture of a quarterback’s accuracy by not counting spikes/throwaways against them and by giving them credit for drops. Per their stats, the Miami receivers dropped 22 passes, which is about average, but even after factoring those back in he is still at the bottom of the list (there are only twelve worse qualifying QBs). Rosier did rush for 427 yards and 5 TDs which helps make up for his negative plays but it’s not enough in big games. Case in point: Rosier was pulled late in the Pitt game to give redshirt sophomore backup Evan Shirreffs a shot. Shirreffs had five career passing attempts at that point so in that moment the coaches though he gave them a better shot than Rosier (predictably, Shirreffs did nothing and was replaced by Rosier). Miami lost RB Mark Walton early in the season but sophomore Travis Homer has emerged in his stead. Homer has over 1,100 total yards and scored 8 TDs. He had a big game against #3 Notre Dame (18 rushes for 146 yards) but had just 55 combined rushing and receiving yards in the late losses to Pitt and Clemson. If Miami is to stand a chance against Wisconsin’s great defense it will fall on Walton. Senior DE Chad Thomas had 30 total pressures per PFF and finished the year with 3.5 sacks. Safety Jaquon Johnson improved his stats in 2017 to end with 85 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs. Miami’s defense did get better in 2017 but gone are the days when the NFL Draft was littered with Hurricane defenders; Thomas and Johnson could be mid-round picks but I doubt anybody goes higher than that.

Speaking of defense, Wisconsin’s is a juggernaut. They are 4th in scoring, 4th against the pass and 1st against the run. They don’t have a weakness and it’s unfortunate we did not get to see them play a stronger schedule. We may never know if this was a historic unit or just a product of a soft schedule. Their leader, LB TJ Edwards, is good in both run support (27th ranked in run stop percentage per PFF) and in coverage (4 INTs). According to DraftTek.com, he’s the 11th ranked prospect in the conference and according to WalterFootball.com he’s looking at a 3rd-5th round grade. Edwards may not be a Watt brother but he’s keeping up the tradition of productive Wisconsin linebackers with initials instead of first names! The Badgers offense is all about freshman RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,847 rushing yards and 13 TDs this season and he finished 6th in Heisman voting. Those rushing yards ranked him first in the conference and third in the FBS. Not bad for a three star recruit. Taylor still has two more seasons before he’s draft eligible so we have to wait and see what he develops into but he’ll probably be on my Heisman watch list for next season. Aside from offensive tackle Beau Benzschawel, the best offensive prospect is TE Troy Fumagalli. Fumagalli has a long injury history that I discussed in my Big Ten preview, but I still like his chances in the NFL. He’s more of a traditional TE than the “move TE” that is en vogue right now so that may lower how high he is drafted. Regardless of where he is drafted, he will be on the field from day one because of his above average blocking ability. Fumagalli led the team with 43 receptions, 516 yards and 4 TDs. He has already declared for the NFL Draft but Fumagalli has confirmed that he will play in the bowl. Fumagalli may not be a fantasy factor in his rookie season but he’ll still be worth a third round pick.

I don’t have a doubt in my mind that Wisconsin will win this one. Prediction: Wisconsin

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.