News, opinion and analysis, from Istanbul to Almaty and from Moscow to Tehran.

Thursday, 7 June 2012

SCO Summit Promises Much, Delivers Little

The latest summit of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation has finished in
Beijing, with Afghanistan and regional security the main topics under
discussion. But as always with the SCO, watching the power relationships within
the Eurasian security bloc is as interesting as the summit itself.

The location of the summit rotates
each year but holding it in Beijing did give the Chinese an opportunity to
shape the agenda and show off a bit. President Hu Jintao hwas pretty active,
stressing that the SCO supported
a “a new security concept that allows its member states to firmly maintain
their interests, explore development paths that are suited to their individual
conditions and fight against ‘interventionism.’”

The mention of interventionism is
a bit of red meat for the bloc’s authoritarian leaders, who are all
increasingly concerned (for their own reasons) about the growing clamour for
international action in Syria.

But the other aspects of Hu’s
security concept may also be rhetorical support for Central Asian states, which
often feel pressured by Russia on the political and economic fronts. This may
be reading too much into it but it would tie into the narrative
that China and Russia are increasingly competing in Central Asia, with Russia
providing cash and weaponry but also demanding political influence, whilst
China simply pours money into natural
resources, agriculture
and commerce.

Afghanistan is the other main
area of focus. With NATO set to pull out most combat troops in 2014, Eurasian
states are frantically trying to map a future for Afghanistan which will reduce
the risk of civil war, prevent spillover of the conflict into Central Asia, and
secure their own interests with whoever ends up in power in Kabul. Although the
summit participants underlined the role which the SCO can play in securing
Afghanistan’s future, the bloc’s lack of cohesion and mutual suspicions mean
that in reality these efforts will be bilateral.

China, in particular, is looking
to ink a preliminary agreement for a ‘strategic partnership’ with
Afghanistan, which would ensure Beijing’s commercial interests
there. It is unlikely to go much beyond this: the Chinese have shown precious
little appetite or ability to get involved in Afghanistan’s tangled political
processes (let alone take a bigger role in ensuring security).

The scramble for post-NATO
Afghanistan means that President Hamid Karzai is much in demand. Afghanistan
was granted
formal observer status within the SCO – previously Karzai has attended only as
a guest. This puts it on the same footing as Iran, India, Mongolia and
Pakistan. But don’t expect Afghanistan to be invited into the tent anytime
soon. Expanding the bloc’s membership has been a contentious issue over the
past few years.

Iran has been clamouring for an
invite for some time, but was blocked since this would violate an SCO Charter rule
that members must not be subject to UN sanctions or engaged in an armed
conflict. Formally, the SCO members have politely prevaricated, blaming procedural problems
for the lack of new members. Pakistan is ruled out both for its ongoing internal
conflicts and because membership would inevitably create complications with
India.

In a sign of Turkey’s renewed
interest in its Eurasian neighbours, the Turks were given “dialogue partner”
status in the SCO. This is a step between being a ‘guest’ and an ‘observer’ and
means very little, but it represents an acknowledgment that Turkey has a role
to play east of the Caspian.

On the sidelines of the summit,
energy was the hot topic, with a new agreement to boost gas exports signed between Turkmengaz
and China’s CNPC, talk
of Iranian gas and electricity sales to Pakistan in exchange for goods; and the
conspicuous absence
of a long-awaited deal on gas sales from Russia to China.

One interesting note was a
discussion between Turkmenistan’s President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov and President
Hu, at which the former solicited Chinese support for “creating under the aegis
of the United Nations a special international group for preparing an
international convention dedicated to ensuring the security of energy-resource
movement” (news via Interfax, subscription only).

This sounds like one of the
vague, multilateral, UN-mandated initiatives that Turkmenistan loves. But the
wording of the proposal, and the request for support from China rather than
from Russia or from the SCO as a bloc, makes it seem like a plan to counter
Russian pressure against Turkmenistan’s choice of gas export routes.

For all the talk of SCO cooperation
on energy issues, the bloc seems more and more like a talking shop for members
to pursue their own bilateral deals. And with the cast of members, observers,
dialogue partners, and guests expanding almost every year, don’t expect any
cohesion on energy issues – or anything else, including Afghanistan – going forward.

Instead expect the core members,
chiefly China but Russia as well, to increasingly see the SCO as a forum to
meet and greet a broad constellation of neighbours – and make a few lucrative deals
at the same time.

About Me

Alex Jackson is a political risk analyst working on politics, security, economics and energy in the Caspian region.
He has written and spoken widely on the region and currently works in London.
He can be contacted at ajackson320@gmail.com or @Caspian_Intel