Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers

Carolina and Denver face off in Super Bowl 50 in what many are viewing as a clear mismatch. Gamblers have bet Carolina all the way up to -6 after opening at -3.5, caught up in the excitement of their dominating victory over Arizona.

Denver is being regarded lowly after a poor offensive showing against New England. Situationally, Denver offers some value as Carolina is clearly the public favorite. According to Covers.com, Carolina is currently receiving 68% of the bets against the spread.

Momentum Overrated

With two weeks off between games, it’s important to limit the importance of “momentum” in this game. Clearly Carolina is playing better football in the last few weeks but all that matters is what happens on Sunday. It’s easy to get caught up in all the points Carolina has put on the board recently, but it’s doubtful they will continue to post multiple defensive touchdowns.

Unstoppable Denver Pass Rush

On the defensive side of the ball, Denver has a clear advantage in the trenches. Denver has the league’s best defensive sack rate while also playing extremely stout run defense (4th ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders).

One particular mismatch for Carolina will be right tackle Mike Remmers versus Von Miller. Remmers, who graded out as the 60th best tackle in pass blocking according to Pro Football Focus, gets to face off against Miller, who led the NFL with 82 quarterback pressures.

Carolina Run Game

Carolina will pose a much tougher challenger than New England with their diverse running attack and vertical passing game. Although Carolina graded out highly during the season as offensive line, left tackle Michael Oher graded out poorly as a run blocker.

Denver will cause some game-changing turnovers. Newton will have his share of big plays as well, particularly throwing deep. Ultimately the game will come down to how well Denver can execute their offense while avoiding turnovers.

Denver Offense Better Than It Seems

On paper, Denver’s offense has put up poor numbers all season. However, Peyton’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly and audible to run plays when he sees advantage will enable the Broncos to move the ball in this game. Unlike against New England, Denver will need to be more aggressive on offense. A lot of their failures in the second half against New England were self-inflicted as they seemed content to just punt the ball and let their defense win the game.

I think both teams will be able to move the ball throughout the game but will have definitely punching the ball in the end zone. In the end, Carolina pulls out a narrow victory 23-19.

Super Bowl Props

This is a really an OR bet on Denver money line or any other player winning the MVP on Carolina. I see a low-scoring game playing out, with Denver’s defensive line limiting Newton’s impact in the running game. It’s quite possible that a Carolina skill player could have a big enough game to steal the MVP away, especially if Newton has a few turnovers. There’s also the possibility of either Luke Kuechly or Josh Norman scoring a defensive touchdown. Both players have big enough names to take home the MVP award given the seasons they both just posted.

Cam Newton rush yards under 39.5 +117

Denver has struggled when facing mobile quarterbacks this season but I think they will be focused on limiting his ability to run, potentially at the expense of giving up a few big pass plays.

Cam Newton longest completion over 37.5 -108

Carolina ranks fourth in the league with 36 completions over 25 yards this year, averaging 39 yards per play. Ted Ginn or Philly Brown will get open deep at least a few times against a Denver secondary that has given up 32 pass plays over 25 yards this year.

Mike Tolbert carries over 3.5 +107

Carolina averages 33 rushing attempts per game, leading the NFL during the regular season. This is due in part to winning 15 games and always being ahead. I like Tolbert to get lots of opportunities in short yardage situations. Tolbert averaged over 4 carries per game during the season. Although Jonathan Stewart is healthy, Tolbert will continue to get lots of looks in Carolina’s diverse running game.

Longest enforced penalty over 15.5 -108

A long pass interference is quite likely given Carolina’s inclination to throw deep. Add in Peyton Manning’s noodle arm that could lead to under thrown deep balls enabling at least one long pass interference penalty.

Both teams make 32 yard or more field game in game +107

This prop is a no-brainer. Gary Kubiak is one of the most conservative coaches in the NFL. All that needs to happen is a field goal from the 14-yard line for both teams. Carolina has been putting up a ridiculous amount of touchdowns lately but a lot of those scores have come on defense or via long plays through the air. That trend will not continue to the same extent as this game. Both teams will kick at least 2 field goals from 32 yards out.

Denver first score not a td +117

This prop is a purely another play on Kubiak’s conservative coaching style. I like Denver to have some success early in the game moving the ball through the air. But Carolina will shut them down in the redzone. I foresee lots of Denver field goal attempts in this game as they try to play ball control

Broncos defense over 2.5 sacks +117

Denver has the best pass rush in the NFL. Carolina likes to throw deep. They will get to Newton several times

Over 2.5 players with pass attempt +194

Given the well documented status of Peyton Manning’s barely functioning body, there is a decent chance he will leave the game, either due to injury or poor performance. The Broncos could easily knock Cam Newton of action as well. Although Carolina has a better offensive line than New England and a more mobile quarterback, Tom Brady was hit 20 times during the AFC championship game. Cam will take a lot of hits in this game. All it takes is one Derek Anderson or Brock Osweiler pass to cash this prop.

Total lost fumbles over 1.5 +161

This prop is highly correlated with the number of sacks that will happen. I foresee at least one Cam Newton fumble on a Von Miller or Demarcus Ware strip sack. Carolina boasts an impressive pass rush as well, capable of pulverizing Manning for a strip sack. At +161 it’s a great value that there will be at least one more random fumble in addition to a strip sack and recovery.

Carolina scores a rushing td -207

Carolina has shown a propensity to run the ball with frequency inside the redzone. It’s telling that Greg Olsen, Cam’s favorite target, has hardly been a factor in the redzone. Tolbert, Stewart, or Cam will run for a score.