Saturday, August 24, 2013

Harper deals with losing: 'I've never lost'

Photo by USA Today

At 64-64 through 128 games, and with over a month left in the season, the Nationals have plenty of time to make a run and finish with a winning record. But just topping the .500 mark isn't enough to call this year a success, especially given preseason expectations to win a World Series.

As a result, Bryce Harper is dealing with life on a struggling team, really for the first time ever. His junior travel team won two national titles, his high school team dominated and his college team went 52-16 the only year he played.

Harper admits it is a bit different going to the ballpark every day when you're not in the thick of a division race.

"Mentally it's grinding because we're not winning right now," Harper told Mark Zuckerman in their weekly sit-down on Wednesday.

"It's kind of tough. But you just gotta go in every single night and try to play hard. Try to win ballgames. Especially late because we want to try and have the best last month."

Being on the .500 Nationals is as close as Harper's been to playing on a losing team. He is so used to winning, he can't even remember being on a team that wasn't good.

"Earlier in my career, when I was younger? We never lost," he said. "We were the best team in the country. We never lost, ever. I've never been on a losing team or anything like that. It's never been tough or anything like that. I've never lost, ever."

Harper's had his own ups and downs this season. After beginning the year with a scorching start in April, he hasn't been the same player in the months since. He ran into walls in Atlanta and Los Angeles back in May, causing bursitis in his left knee, and spent five weeks on the disabled list.

Despite returning from the DL on July 1, Harper still feels the effects of his knee. He may not be always playing in pain, but his timing and feel at the plate still aren't where he would like them to be.

"My first month was pretty dang good," he said. "It was kind of tough after I hit the wall, it kind of went downhill from there. I haven't felt as strong everyday. I've been struggling a little bit, trying to get into rhythm again and trying to do things the right way."

Harper remains in the Nats' lineup on a daily basis as they move through the last week of August. The Nationals have 34 games remaining and Harper hopes to finish the year strong.

"We still got a month left, so we're going to keep trying, keep grinding, and see where we're at at the end."

SWM, look at the change in natitude yesterday Down 6-0 the Nats scored 8 unanswered. August average runs scored is 4.85.

This is what was needed all season. Even Davey has woken up but it's Rizzo asleep at the switch. Davey needs a slick fielding outfielder which means the weak link has to go. Davey needs another bullpen arm.

"Easy to see that if the Nats averaged 1 more run per game they'd be in 1st place."******************************Easy to see, maybe, but much harder to achieve. No team is averaging 4.89 in the NL. And to get there, the Nats would have to jump over 10 other teams in per-game scoring.

As the Nats scoring has improved a bit -- they're now 11th in the NL, having spent much of the year at 14th -- their runs-allowed average has declined to more than 4 runs/game. They're now just a tick below league average, giving up 4.07 per game with 4.08 being NL average.

Most significantly, they continue -- on average -- to allow more runs than they score. Thus, at 64-64, they continue to outperform their Pythagorean projection (61-67). I'm happy about that, of course, and continue to check the wild card standings, but I'm realistic enough to know that the odds of playing in October are mighty slim.

Like many of you, my sense is that this year Harper has played through injuries that would have sidelined many players for long stretches. I have a great respect for his talent and his professionalism. All this at the age of 20.

Eugene, excellent point. But 4.89 wasn't needed--4.50 or even 4.25 would have sufficed for a lot of the season when the starters (except Haren and Detwiler) were going well. Now I think Gio and JZ are tired and inconsistent. Stras is a mystery, let's face it.

Zimmerman is not washed up but LaRoche may be. Like Harper Zimmerman needs to finish healing. Anyone want to take odds on Werth at age 35 repeating the same performance next season?

Span is one of the leaders on the team in total XBH. He has 9 triples and 24 doubles with 2 homers thrown in. BUT he still can't hit left-handed pitching and his OBP is still LOW at .314, which makes him a definite easily manageable hole at the top of the lineup. Last season Span hit 38 doubles with 4 triples. I don't think he'll match that. His percentage of pitches outside the strike zone and swung at is the highest of his career. Percentage of PA's ending in a walk the lowest of his career. He's NOT a lead off hitter by any stretch of Rizzo's imagination at least not the way Rizzo described his model.

Agree completely that being number one in runs scored per game wasn't needed. You just need to be better than league average in both categories (and, obviously, the closer you are to number one the better) to pretty much guarantee yourself a playoff spot. Pittsburgh is managing to thrive while being a bit below league average in runs scored, but that's unusual. Atlanta is great example of how you don't have to have individual league leaders (with a couple of exceptions) to have league leading team averages in runs scored/runs allowed.

Nats 128 assumed on the previous post that I paid attention to Storen's parents tweets. I neither tweet nor twit -- or whatever you call reading some other person's twitter/tweet. Apologies to Little Richard.

Since it's a while before game time and work is light, I looked at the teams ahead of us in the WC.

We have the best schedule in terms of under .500 teams.

Next is Arizona. However, they are only 1.5 games ahead of us and they have seven more against the Dodgers, who are aiming for the best record to get home-field advantage. ARZ also just lost JJ Putz to injury. If it comes down to us and them at the end of September (which I doubt), we have our destiny in our own hands and you can't ask for more than that. I think they will fall out of the race.

Of the three NL Central teams, Pittsburgh has a slightly easiar road than the other two, but they have to play away games in Texas. Opponents average .498

St Louis has the most home games left (20) but they have 4 games in Coors, always a crapshoot. Opponents average .511. If it comes down to us and St Louis, again, I'm happy (though not confident) if we have the result in our own hands.

Cincy has 3 against the Dodgers, but that's balanced by 3 against the Astros. They also have to go to Coors for 3 games. A lot will depend on which pitchers they get, e.g., do they face Harvey with the Mets? Opponents average .505

I've always seen Keiunta (Span's real first name - Denard is his middle name) as a 4th outfielder / defensive replacement type, which would make him a very strong bench player.

A simple check of his MLB stats at http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/spande01.shtml will show that his OBP and average declined since his MLB debut.

However there is absolutely NO disputing the value of his defense over Morse's. I believe this is probably why the whole WAR (Wins Above Replacement) comes into play - as much as I absolutely love Beast Mode, and believe that trading Morse killed some of the fun of the game for the team - also a value - I would think that even with the hitting performance this year, Span grades out with greater WAR.

If the Nats can go after a guy like Ellsbury or Shin Soo Choo next year, no one would blame them, and Span could spell everyone (our own version of DeJesus). And frankly, I'll take DeJesus over Tracy for the same reasons if they stand pat.

I'd also see if I could get a deal signed with Haren for less than this year. If not, perhaps go hard after Matt Garza, as there will be no qualifying offer for the Nats to deal with.

Meanwhile, let's keep winning and staying strong. The remaining games will help define the character of this team.

Meanwhile, Mikey Morse was not in the Seatttle lineup yesterday. He was in the lineup on Wed and got a HR, but has been dealing with yet another injury for the last couple of weeks, this time his wrist.

Except for the Braves who have we played in the last 14 days that was any good. Now with the Braves losing Heyward and others we may get them the next time! In regard to Bernadina, it sure helps to get your timing when you get to play almost everyday like LaRoche. FP says you have to play to get your timing. It sure helped Moore, when he got sent down and got to play. Also, Lombo has done well considering how he has been used by Davey. You can sure tell he isn't one of his favorites. He has had stents where he has gotten two or three hits in a game and finds himself on the bench the next night. Just like last night. I sure hope he gets a chance somewhere else next year! If his name had been Espinosa he would have been and still be a starter. You know by watching all year, Davey has alot of favorites. I don't care what their salaries are, if you are not producing you sit!

With Choo you would be getting another long, expensive contract for an aging RF'er and we already have one of those. If you are dead-set against Span (I'm not), you could look at Ellsbury, but, again, I'm feeling a little burnt by expensive FA contracts.

NatsLady - what's the URL for your blog? Also, you think the Nats may weigh in on Jose Abreu? Wladimir Balentien is learning how to hit in Japan... you think Rizzo may get over Maya and get back to thinking International in the nation's capital?

(1) Abreu - apparently he can only play 1B. If the long-term plan is for RZ to float over there in another year or so, that would let out giving Abreu a 5-year deal, which he will surely get. If there is hope that RZim can end his career at 3B (as Chipper did, after all), you could look at Abreu. Unfortunately he will probably be gone to another team before we know.

(2)Yes, I think Rizzo will get over Maya (he already has when it comes to the Dominican). If the right player/situation comes along and IF Rizzo can feel confident of the scouting, he will bit. I don't know anything about the Japanese player you mention, and I have not got the feeling we have strong scouting there, as, say, the M's do.

The problem is you need more resources internationally than I think we have (except in the Dominican). Those resources are expensive and of questionable reliability. If he can develop good scouting in Korea, Japan and Taiwan I think that would be better than Mexico and Cuba.

However, in regard to South America (Venezuela, Colombia), I believe Rizzo has contacts and scouting there, as we have gotten several catchers through that pipeline. That might also be fruitful--again, a lot of it is word-of-mouth and family relationships, building up a trust level.

Bottom line, each situation internationally is different and you can't spread yourself too thin trying to develop them all. Pick a locale, learn the language, set up scouting and training, sign a few players with fair $$ and when they get to the majors they will spread the word that the Nats are a good organization.

That's okay, I don't do the tweeter thing either. That said, I don't think Drew's folks are doing him any favors with reactionary tweetering. He's a big boy now. Let him fight his own battles. Just my opinion.

Theophilus T. S. said...

Nats 128 assumed on the previous post that I paid attention to Storen's parents tweets. I neither tweet nor twit -- or whatever you call reading some other person's twitter/tweet. Apologies to Little Richard. August 24, 2013 1:25 PM

In summary, I don't think you can say whether Rizzo will make "international" signings (unless there is an international draft). You have to ask, what individual regions will he target and what level of resources will he employ to reach a signing decision.

I have been a fan of Drew Storen ever since we drafted him. He is now starting to lose some of his luster for me. If he is mad at Davey for taking him out, then shame on him. I don't blame Davey for not trusting him to get out of that jam. You have to earn the trust of the manager and Storen has not done that yet. It was obvious to me Drew did not have sufficient command of his pitches last night. If Drew doesn't wake up and fly right, he's going to be traded out of here.

I still think that Drew Storen will have a great career, but he has hit a wall right now. Even one of the games that went into the book as a good appearance for him last week he was the beneficiary of a very generous strike zone. If he had gotten that zone in game 5.... oh, never mind.

Off-topic, but one of the kids that Baltimore traded for Bud Norris, is LJ Hoes, a local from St. John's College High School in DC. Since getting a chance to start for Bo Porter he has been off to a great start with the Astros. Wishing the kid great luck. (Same for JMax after we leave KC).

On a completely unrelated path - was watching Top Gear UK today and wondered if Richard Hammond ever tours America for appearances. Looked it up and saw this picture: http://www.whosay.com/candacebailey/photos/156493

Good job with that hanging curve, but where baseball is concerned you can pretty much ignore any statement that asserts an absolute (e.g., always, never, every time). And I guess that applies to most other things in life, as well.

Here's how Soriano stacks up against the other 29 primary closers in MLB:

Save %: 22 out of 30ERA: 26 out of 30K/9: 29 out of 30WHIP: 26 out of 30BA against: 29 out of 30

So the stats show what we already know. He's not a strikeout guy, he gives up a alot of hits and runs, and he is well below his peer average in converting save opportunities. He may or may not be hurt, but he really isn't very good.

FWIW, I've heard people saying that Harper bailed out Soriano. Not really. Soriano got a routine popup to shallow right. If Harper bailed out anybody, it's the coaching staff who had him playing no doubles against Bonifacio, who has no power. If he's positioned normally, that's a routine catch. Soriano did his job on that play.

Not defending Soriano's play as of late, just talking about that specific play.

However, despite these signs (less efficiency, more batters/pitches per inning), Davey didn't cut back on his use. That's probably because he had no alternative, with Storen unreliable and Mattheus screwing up. He did try using Abad for tie games--until Abad lost a couple of them in a row.

Charlie and Dave were pretty insistent that they think Soriano is hurt. Even when Soriano was "making things interesting" early in the year, he was keeping the ball down and he wasn't giving up home runs. He also wasn't walking people. Now everything is up and his command is spotty. He looks like first half Dan Haren out there right now.

To me, the bottom line is that if Soriano was overused, it was because the offense had so many low-scoring games and the rest of the short relievers (other than Clip) were not holding up their end. It's possible that Soriano could/should have gone on a Haren-type DL trip around mid-July, but he probably thought he could tough it out.

He's pitched 54.2 innings this year, which is on pace for 69 innings. He pitched 67.2 last year for the Yankees. Last year for the Yankees, he had a 2.26 ERA and only 3 blown saves. So I don't think he's being overused.

Following up on Ghost's comment that they need to score one run per game more, I got curious as to how that arithmetic would look.

2013 to date they are 64-64, but their current Pythagorean W-L = 61-67, so they are +3 there, now.They have scored 498 runs (3.89/g), and allowed 521 runs (~4.07/game, which would be ~660 over 162 games).

They have 34 games left. If they score at GoSM's suggested rate of 1 more than they have averaged to this point, that would leave them with ~658 runs on the season, or ~4.06/game.

Assuming that the defense stays the same (because Ghost didn't propose a change, just sticking with the premise here), that would be 658 runs scored vs. 660 allowed. They Pythagorean W/L for that would be 81-81, or .500, which is where they are now.

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About the Author

Mark Zuckerman has covered the Nationals since the franchise arrived in D.C. He's been a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America since 2001 and is a Hall of Fame voter. Email mzuckerman@comcastsportsnet.com.