The new poll of the the Data Folha that belongs to the pro Serra Folha de Sao Paulo, Dilma has 56% and Serra 44%, the Economist is later, Serra is 68 years old, and has an vice that doesn't have any experience, can you imagine a 68 years old British Prime Minister?

Obrigado, nice post, there is a lot in there I can agree with. I certainly think there is a lot of criticism that can be offered to Ms Rousseff and Mr Serra from both the left and the right. Please, do not think I am blind petista. I hope your warning of crisis after the election do not come true.

I've got to get some work done, but I'm glad you toned it down a little and presented some very intelligent criticism, instead of just calling me a petralha.

@sanmartinian on TE's text "And the polls, far from being wrong before the vote, were a better guide to public opinion than was the result itself."
I believe this statement is a sample of British nonsense you are certainly familiar with - given the English-Mancunian nature of a half of your brain, as you have confessed in a previous post. For a more straight-to-the-point question: if the polls serve as a guide to the public opinion, what is then the qualification of the opinion expressed in the ballot itself? Brazilian?

Dear Sir
It is exasperating to see this awful intellectual partisianism on the debates about the future of Brazil as a State and Society!. Most of the commentators appear unbelievable biased on theirs arguments on the both side: PT considers himself a new “Hobin Wood” and PSDB is always treated as the malign Nottingham Xerif” !.By the way, if one put a comment on fighting poverty, immediately the discourse is fully appropriate by “Hobin Wood” side. On the opposite, if one make somewhat relevant comments on “laissez-faire” protocols to be adopted in Economy (with strong regulation protocols of course!), immediately becomes a player from the “Nottingham Xerif” side!. Brazil, as a candidate to be a worldwide player is badly in need of strategically geopolitical thinking!
.Let us thus present some not partisians comments on the Presidential candidates thinking on the issue of internal security .Firstly, it must be recognized that the problem of the operational actions of Organized crime , most of the weapons and ammunitions of these criminal groups are borrowed (and to be returned after ,just a sort of a leasing criminal “laissez-faire”) from corrupt policeman groups and from military quarters ! .By secondly , The furnshiments of weapons and intelligence gadgets does not come uniquely from smuggling activities on the Brazilian inner/South America Borders , as corrupt public officers try to make people and Presidential candidates to believe!. The cancer of the weapons and Intelligence gadgets supply to the organized crime is in the core of all those unsuspected institutions which are conceived themselves to fight the organized crime!. That certainly has happened in the Big city of Rio de Janeiro for instance (The City's districts of Nova Iguaçu and Baixada Fluminense being the prime examples of what is being said above. Note the presence in those Rio de Janeiro districts (Nova Iguacu & Baixada Fluminense) of a great number of Military complexes like the Air base of Santa Cruz, Brazilian Marines headquarters, Army air borne division ,and especially the Federal Police Division on Nova Iguaçu ).These sad concrete examples taken from as such as important Big Brazilian city show clearly that the first step to be done in order to curb and at least to control the organized crime organizations actions in acceptable levels is : tough control and tolerance zero for corrupt security officers and judgers of all rankers, not the creation of another quite expensive policial superstructure like the Police Ministery (Orwel-1984!?)as Mr Serra has been proposing ,in my opinion . By the way, I suspect that most of the drugs cargos on Rio de Janeiro (and in the Country in general, I believe) are released and RECEIVED ALSO in Brazilian completely open Brazilian harbors .The Brazilian harbors and not patrolled huge ocean coast and uncountable rivers appears to be the real boundary to the “laissez-faire” of the international drug market .The inner borders appears to be mainly used for smuggler of cheap goods made in China and to be sadly bought by the Brazilian poor families!-Certainly a daunting task to control it!. Note that smuggling is somewhat a “commercial activity" widely accepted by poor people like the “Jogo do Bicho” on Rio de Janeiro and Niteroi city streets, although both nefarious organized criminal activities surreptitiously patronized by corrupt people in the Federal and State Police Institutions and politicians on that City, as the media has steadily reporting on newspapers and Magazines . Serious and not biased debates on those excruciating internal security issues for the Brazilian society are well deserveds and welcome.

FabioC wrote: "BR-NZ must be a petralha. He calls right wing extremist anyone who doesn't vote PT and yet, in Brazil, there is not even ONE right wing political party."

Very true, they have realized a while ago that there is no votes in calling yourself right wing at this time.
Which is why they support Serra at the moment, who calls himself something far more palatable, but make no mistake, look at his voting record, his actions in government and try again to say he is not right wing.
Hilariously, they embrace anybody who can help undo the magic of real life social democrats, including one of PT´s founders who is now disenchanted with things.
The big picture however, is still that PT holds a strong lead and will likely prevail.
The big question will now be whether the right wing will have as much success as in the last few years in sabotaging government on all levels possible. Guerilla warfare is likely to continue in the guise of movements such as "Eu Cansei" which had many followers for a while without any real direction other than to profit from many educated and narrowminded conformists. The message that came across was that they were tired of PT but showed no viable alternative.
Only PT has ever shown real interest and ability in making the country more homogenous by raising standards for the lower classes.
In the meantime, real issues are dealt with and the world continues to turn. "Monicagate" and Clinton comes to mind when you see many of the right wings´ desperate attempts to bring down governments in the lack of real political opportunities.
The only item they seem to be able to sell is smaller government, but that on its own will not bring anything but backtracking to the country.
We do need better, more efficient government as well as all other sectors.
We need to transform stale Infraero and other state companies into something that does not act like a stalinist creation.
We need to be able to introduce innovative spirit, modern methods, transparency, accountability...any help and support is greatly appreciated....

Like Fabio, please don't belittle your argument by putting words in my mouth. I have never said "shopping" was the answer to anything, just look at the US! Please, creating strawmen is a rather tired way of presenting an argument.

Civil society is what I want, there are no magic bullets to achieve this, again as usual people are all up in arms that Brasil isn't perfect! Incredible, who wouldn't have thought! Brasil has a long way to go. But, things are improving, and hopefully the newly emerging lower middle class with create a positive political feedback loop as it did in most other post-war "Western" countries. Lula deserves some credit, as does FHC. But in general the past decade of stability is combination of many factors.

Being a Social Democrat that believes in a market economy with State intervention is not an extremist position.

Crisis did come and the Palácio do Planalto acted correctly to reduce the affects of the global crisis by increasing leading. Rousseff as already stated that reducing government debt will be a priority, as will be tax reform and simplification. Both badly needed. But poor infrastructure is currently hold back growth the tune of 2%, this is being fixed through both public and private sector investment, (obrigado Vale). In the past a financial crisis like that of 2008 would have been an absolute disaster for Brasil, this time it wasn't, last in first out.

We invented cars, steam engines, fuel, industrial revolution... the invention of invention.. absorbed and used techniques invented by the East, by China way before us.. But we applied technology differently. We got there first.. got a problem with that? Want to be rich like us? so you can own the stuff we invented?

Persue your own ambitions, invent your own things and lets see how long you last in your fairy tale. Have a serious debate about what "prosperity" means.. Healthcare, home, a hobby, an ambition, a simple life. The material world that Brazil still chases.. that much of the world chases.. is completely unsustainable..

If we all lived like Americans, there would need to be 6 planets.. probably even more. On a finite planet.. where do the current government ambitions of 'high gdp', high material throughput lead..

BR-NZ made the necessary nationalistic provisions in her comments. The prods at the west, people protesting on hyde park corner.. and "wierd gringoes".. I haven't heard this one before.. a new poke at anyone English or otherwise who dares to take an interest in Brazil.. how dare they!?

Dear Sir
Finally , the most vital issue for Brazil and never addressed by the Brazil Presidency candidates in this presidential campaign is about this somewhat suicide currency exchange policy presently adopted by theMr da Silva presidential cabinet .Certainly after the perception of the Stock Market international players that Brazil is in stage of nearly insolvency instability in a short time perspective because the growing of Federal mammoth debt (like Greece!) and after withdraw themselves massively from the Brazilians companies’ stocks bounds , immediately the Brazilian currency will fallen into the Abysm of over –devaluation national currency against the Dollar and others strong currencies and thus bringing total instability to the Brazilians authorities on the control of inflation .This scenario is possible even with the allegedly “comfortable “ situation of present Brazilian higher external reserves of U$300 billions (Professor D Munoz from UNB University-Brazil Economist).The point :The present Brazilian external reserves are equal to the Brazilian External debts, although the Present government has tried to put on act that by making a symbolic payment of his external debts to FMI fully intentioned for Brazilian ill-literate voters meaning that Brazil has been free from External debts !.Just Propaganda!. Currency Policies is the Brazilian biggest problem right now and the President candidates must address themselves publicly theirs thinking on that vital issue for Brazil immediate future!.

Dear Sir
Another deep challenge to next Brazil’s presidency and that must be adressed is about to set priorities on public expenditure of public funding (BNDE, Brazilian Treasury, States budgets,etc.) .It has become a vital country's necessity to enhance the economic partnership with foreigner investors , but the foreigner investors must get the risks also and not as it is presently done :all setbacks and risks going easily to Brazilian people! .Brazil public funding and DIRECT foreigner investment money must be treated on equal footing as everywhere in the Advanced countries . Economic cooperation appears the only path to mitigate the effect of this “Melting down all over the World" financial crisis.
At this point one should compulsory review the assertive that public money investment on nearly ONE HOUNDRED BILIONS OF DOLLARS of the Brazil public budget to building Stadiums for the World Cup and Olympics in Rio are worth .No !.They are not!. It is a nasty lie to say that they will going to forest infrastructure in Brazilian big cities, besides of certainly not being priorities to the Brazilian infrastructure!. Brazil need to invest his scarce public budget in 1)building new conventional Railways crossing all over the Country (with trains moved on not so expensive Diesel opposite to quite expensive magnetic suspensions trains !) , 2)The highly expensive modernization of ours Hydroelectric central powers that could not stand any more to delays on its Turbine technological modernizations added with reliable Transmission lines ,3)To finish Dams and “eclusas” , specially of the river “Velho Chico” on Brazil North east , 4)to building news refineries ,bridges , Hospitals, Public Universities and Technical Schools , Housing for poor people ,modernization of our public schools all over the country ,an endless list of projects in front of that madness of expending and mainly transferring billions of dollars of public budget to Foreigners Investors (especially from UK and Germany) on Cup and Olympics .These sporting world wide events must happen with the minimum of costs to the Brazilian Federal Public Budget.Greece is a sad example of utmost budget irresponsability !. Brazilians should realize fully that is better to have to tight belts than to lose the so important Federation sovereignty for satisfying these asymmetrical rules of the international markets unilaterally imposed by big Investors of the International Stock Market in the close arms with greedy Brazilian “aventureiros” . Real actions of the country’s policy makers to protect Brazilians people interests , which means to set priorities on expending the federal budget in infrastructure , is the only protocol to turn the whole country from the disaster that irresponsible budget spending is going to bring to Brazil in a near future-remember the Poor Greece again!.As it was told a long time ago in the Battle Field :” Brazil hopes that every citizen accomplishes his/her duties on keeping the Brazil sovereignty”

Answering Anajardim comment: I am from Minas Gerais State and i can tell you all that Aecio is not the better choice to Brazilian Presidential election than Serra. Aecio made tolls on every state roads in the state (and they are simply roads - with no double line ). The ICMS (states tribute) in MG are the highest in the country. The vehicle property tax is 4% ( one of the Brazil's highest). A fantastic popularity in a country that semi-literated people are the most means nothing. See TIRIRICA in Sao Paolo State - a former clown that won as the most voted Congress man for SP, he won with the sentence - Tiririca pior que tá não fica - worst than it is will not be, LOL. Saying again popularity means nothing, ask a state teacher from Minas Gerais, they know what i am talking about. (MG state: one of the lowest teachers wages in the country).

The good news is that Lula's propaganda machine
is losing steam. These days information is more
widely available (just look at google maps street view)
and compare Taipei, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Los Angeles, etc
to Sao Paulo and Rio.

You can see for yourself the disparity in incomes in Brazil,
and visually see that developing nations like Brazil
have long ago learn to create a real middle class.
Not a lower middle class grown by government stipends.
You can see the businesses that the average person have in the developed nations versus the inexistent(equivalent) ones in Rio
and Sao Paulo. Even comparing Faria Lima (in Sao Paulo) to sections of Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles failed to impress. For such a large country with so many resources Brazil punches way below its weight.

Hats off to the UK (though I disagree with scrapping the Harrier
jets) for tightening the belt and setting itself on the right course.

By the way, check out Manchester through google map street view
(not an endorsement, just a suggestion). Compare that to Rio or
Sao Paulo. Though Manchester is smaller, you can see that its people
have better housing (private and public) that Brazil will have in
decades to come.

8 years is not a long time. You know how corrupt politics are in Brasil. If Lula was going to get some of his agenda through it required a lot of concessions and ignoring a lot of problems. Any president that tries to tackle corruption head on is going to face a lot of obstruction from vested interests. Serra will have to play by the same rules. I think Serra is a good man, but I really didn't like his campaign, very negative. Neither do I think Lula is a saint, or think he is some corrupt alcoholic as some people demonise him - if I had to run a country as crazy as Brasil I'd need a drink as well ;-) Lula is a politician.

To honest, if Serra wins next Saturday this is part of me that will be glad, my gaúcha fiance is much more petista than I am...

Serra will focus on different issues, but is sad that all candidates are so similar, but common to most countries these days... end of history and all that...

"And the polls, far from being wrong before the vote, were a better guide to public opinion than was the result itself."

Good Heavens! That smacks of one of Isaac Azimov's short novels I've already mentioned here of elections in the future being replaced by ever more sophisticated polls that would choose the voter closer to the national average opinion who would then choose the winner...

A sentence almost as long as the time needed for polls to be a better guide to public opinion than elections.

I am not expert enough to provide a detailed analysis of the topic in hand. But I'd like to give my opinion on one matter:

About buying votes from poor people - this might be true, but I think that the Bolsa Familia policy has improved lives of many people (during Lula's government the middle - class part of the society increased by 10%). Maybe it's not that wrong to "buy" votes this way. I might be wrong, of course. But from an international point of view this policy is one of the things that help other countries see Brazil as "more civilized" (forgive me if I'm not completely politically correct here), more prosperous and with bigger potential to become one of the big players on the international political scene.

Regarding all other aspects discussed, I only wanted to remind people that there are two sides on every coin.

MR Serra has done a lot as Political member, he has fought the bad regime. Mr Serra as a Person is a trustfull guy. Unfortunatelly its party PSDB is known as elites party, there Miss Dilma enters as the savior. Brazil beats for far the record of prejudice country and unfair division of country PIB. The first fighter LuLa proved for far that since assumed the presidentialship, the country economic and social stuff has moved further. No one want to get back in the poverty. People are fighting for better live even from gift (receiving the fish) or from lesson (learn how to fish). The most easy and fast for sufferers is the best.

The good news is that Lula's propaganda machine
is losing steam. These days information is more
widely available (just look at google maps street view)
and compare Taipei, Hong Kong, Vancouver, Los Angeles, etc
to Sao Paulo and Rio.

You can see for yourself the disparity in incomes in Brazil,
and visually see that developed nations have long ago learn
to create a real middle class. Not a lower middle class grown
by government stipends. You can see the businesses that the
average person have in the developed nations versus the inexistent
(equivalent) ones in Rio and Sao Paulo. Even comparing Faria Lima
(in Sao Paulo) to sections of Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles
failed to impress. For such a large country with so many resources
Brazil punches way below its weight.

Hats off to the UK (though I disagree with scrapping the Harrier
jets) for tightening the belt and setting itself on the right course.

By the way, check out Manchester through google map street view
(not an endorsement, just a suggestion). Compare that to Rio or
Sao Paulo. Though Manchester is smaller, you can see that its people
have better housing (private and public) that Brazil will have in
decades to come.

Sorry, but yor statement that "Ms Rousseff fell short of forecasts that she would win an outright majority in the first round" seems incorrect. My recollection is that Brazilian pollsters could NOT make that forecast in the final days leading to the first round elections. Ms Roussef's poll numbers were right around 50%, and that was within the margin of error, which in the end proved wider than anticipated.