Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates
against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take
time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take
effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to
renewable energies will require additional investment and higher
supply costs over about twenty years

transport

5.8 transport

In the transport sector, it is assumed under the Energy [R]evolution scenario that an energy demand reduction of about 87 PJ/a can be achieved by 2050, saving 42% compared to the Reference scenario. Energy demand will therefore decrease between 2009 and 2050 by 39% to 118 PJ/a. This reduction can be achieved by the introduction of highly efficient vehicles, by shifting the transport of goods from road to rail and by changes in mobility related behaviour patterns. Implementing a mix of increased public transport as attractive alternatives to individual cars, the car stock is growing slower and annual person kilometres are lower than in the Reference scenario.

A shift towards smaller cars triggered by economic incentives together with a significant shift in propulsion technology towards electrified power trains and the reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled lead to significant energy savings. In 2030, electricity will provide 8% of the transport sector’s total energy demand in the Energy [R]evolution, while in 2050 the share will be 33%. Biofuels are expected to play an important role in the future road transport sector, achieving a final energy share of 53% in 2050.