NEW DELHI: The upcoming assembly elections in Delhi could see one of its biggest upsets, if results of an opinion poll commissioned by ET are to be believed.

A survey of 2,101 registered voters in the city's prestigious New Delhi assembly seat by polling firm TNS for ET shows AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal winning the fight, due to be held on December 4, hands down, trouncing sitting legislator and three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit by a wide margin.

The survey, conducted between November 22 and November 24 and covering half the 188 polling booths in the constituency, showed that if elections were held during those dates, Kejriwal stood to win more than 40% of the votes - 41% of male voters and 42% of female voters - followed by BJP candidate Vijender Gupta and then Dikshit at third position.

A defeat for Dikshit, whose popularity political pundits have long rated higher than that of Congress and whose victory has always been considered a slam dunk, and especially at the hands of a debutant such as Kejriwal could send shockwaves across the capital and possibly even national politics, providing fodder to critics who will spare no attempt at projecting it as a foretaste of what awaits the party in 2014. If it happens, it could also mark one of the biggest electoral upsets of all time.

A defeat for Dikshit could give Kejriwal the halo of a giant slayer and AAP a fair shot at trying for a Parliament presence in 2014.

The survey, conducted using face-to-face interviews and during a period AAP was on the defensive buffeted by allegations of corrupt practices by some of its candidates, shows the fledgling party enjoys the support of all segments of society, especially young voters. Kejriwal, 45, was favoured by 49% of voters aged between 18 and 25 years compared with 19% and 20% for Congress and BJP, respectively.

Some 21% of the respondents in the poll were in the 18-25 years age group. AAP fared better than its rivals in all age brackets and across religious and caste lines. TNS has projected a margin of error of 2.12% and a 95% confidence level in its results.

The New Delhi assembly constituency, a high-profile VIP seat, is in many ways a microcosm of the entire city, with its voters spanning multiple age, income and professional profiles.

Covering the heart of the capital with its many NDMC colonies, the posh enclaves in Lutyens' Delhi and Golf Links as also the slum clusters in Kali Bari Marg, this constituency has a vast representation of central government and Delhi government employees and what the political parties term as the "middle class".

Home to around 1.23 lakh voters, the constituency, which was known as Gole Market prior to the delimitation exercise of 2008, has been a pocket borough of Sheila Dikshit, who has won from it on the past three occasions. Her victory margin, although convincing, has shrunk over the past two elections. In 2008, Dikshit was pitted against BJP's Vijay Jolly, whom she defeated by a margin of 18% of the total valid votes polled. In the 2003 elections, she defeated BJP's Poonam Azad by a margin of 33% of the total valid votes cast.

AAP has spared no effort at wresting this seat away from Congress and Dikshit.

While Kejriwal has personally targeted Dikshit in his campaigning, the party has invested a lot of time and resources, with as many as 2,000 volunteers including some of its brightest brains reaching out to the constituency's 30,000 households in an unprecedented effort at door-to-door campaigning.

Its efforts began as early as last year and by June this year, campaigning was in full swing. The party has even collected 6 lakh from 12,000 households in donations.