97L approaching ABC islandsA broad region of low pressure approaching the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today, but the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. 97L is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air will retard development. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I put the odds higher, at 20%.

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wxman57 wrote:Interesting that the models take it right next to where Rina is forecast to be in 120hrs, near western Cuba. Perhaps it will be absorbed by Rina?

That wouldn't surprise me in the least. 97L seems to be moving towards her fairly rapidly. The only question is will it be able to develop by then?

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THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLYUPGRADED HURRICANE RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OFGRAND CAYMAN.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OFMARGARITA ISLAND VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ANDSCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEAAND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLYCONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOMESOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LARGEDISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDSARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEESTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER STEWART

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THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANERINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTERORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVERTHE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FORDEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOMEMORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVESINTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OFDEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTEDACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEESTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER STEWART

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Good question. My take is that as the 11 PM Rina advisory products went out,they did the STWO to release them at the same time,and the system has been organizing at a steady pace tonight,but there may be other reasons.

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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products