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New poll: Many in GOP think Corbett shouldn't run in '14

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Republicans who say Gov. Tom Corbett should step aside and let the party run someone else for governor next year outnumber those who say he should stay, a poll by Franklin & Marshall College released Wednesday shows.

But the numbers are very close: more than four in 10 (44 percent) think he should step aside, and a similar proportion (42 percent) believe he should run. The others interviewed (14 percent) said they don't know.

The overall numbers are worse, with the poll showing:

- Most voters don't believe Corbett is doing a good job, including a third of Republicans;

- Most don't believe he deserves re-election, including more than a third of Republicans;

- Most don't view him favorably; and

- Most think the state is on the wrong track.

That's the bad news.

The good news: most people like his plan to expand Medicaid to provide health insurance to more underprivileged people.

The poll surveyed 628 registered voters between Oct. 22 and Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, meaning each figure could actually be that much larger or smaller because of statistical error. The margin of error for the 231 Republicans interviewed is plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.

G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., the poll's director and noted state political analyst, said he added the question about Republicans wanting Corbett to step aside because of news reports that top Republicans had privately broached the possibility and private calls he received.

"The question has arisen throughout the year and that cannot be denied and Republican leaders have talked about it, that cannot be denied," he said. "I just asked the question. I think it's legitimate question to ask of the voters."

State Republican Party chairman Rob Gleason denied Republicans have ever had any serious discussions about asking Corbett to step aside.

"None. Never has been," Gleason said. "I have no doubt in my mind that he would run and be re-elected. I believe that Tom has done a fine job as governor. I believe that we have not done a good job educating the electorate about his accomplishments, but we are now going to spend the next year doing that, beginning the day after the election (Tuesday)."

"He enjoys the support of the party and he looks forward to discussing his record of creating jobs, eliminating a $4.2 billion dollar deficit and keeping taxes low to the people of Pennsylvania," Barley wrote in an email. "He has a tremendous story to tell, is an elected official who keeps his promises and we are confident that voters will embrace his record over our opponents failed agenda of raising taxes and increasing spending. The majority of Pennsylvanians do not want Washington, D.C. politics brought to Harrisburg and that is what our opponents represent."

Dr. Madonna said the poll does not mean Corbett cannot win re-election next year, but the numbers continue to show he has a steeper hill to climb than predecessors such as Govs. Tom Ridge and Ed Rendell. Both had approval ratings below 50 percent at the same stage in their first terms, but both had far higher ratings than Corbett, Dr. Madonna said.

"You see the ground he has to make up?" he said of Corbett. "In this environment, you cannot rule out a miraculous recovery. ... It's very volatile. We don't know what issues will be paramount, we don't who the Democratic candidate will be, we don't what shortcomings the candidate will have, liabilities."

For now, the economy, unemployment and personal finances remain the most important issue facing the state with more than one in five voters (22 percent) naming them when asked. Education was a tick below (21 percent).

By the numbers, this is how voters view the governor and his Medicaid proposal, according to the poll:

- Fewer than a quarter (23 percent) have a strongly or somewhat favorable view of him with more than half (52 percent) having a strongly or somewhat unfavorable view. The others are undecided or said they don't know what they think of him. That's about the same as F&M's August poll (24 percent favorable, 46 percent unfavorable).

By comparison, half of voters (50 percent) view President Barack Obama favorably and more than four in 10 (44 percent) view him unfavorably.

- Fewer than one in five (19 percent) believe Corbett is doing an excellent (1 percent) or good (18 percent) job with more than three quarters (76 percent) saying he's only doing a fair (39 percent) or poor (37 percent) job. Only about a third (34 percent) of Republicans believe he is doing a good or excellent job. That is slightly better than the August poll (16 percent excellent/good, 76 percent fair/poor).

- Exactly one in five (20 percent) think he deserves re-election, while two-thirds (67 percent) believe it's time for a change. The numbers are almost identical to the August poll (20 percent re-election/69 percent time for a change). Fewer than four in ten (37 percent) of Republicans believe he deserves re-election.

- Only a quarter (25 percent) believe the state is headed in the right direction and more than three in five (61 percent) say it is off on the wrong track.

- When read a description of Medicaid and told of the governor's plan to expand it in Pennsylvania, almost two-thirds of voters (64 percent) strongly or somewhat favor an expansion while only a quarter (25 percent) strongly or somewhat oppose it. Even more, almost three quarters (72 percent) strongly or somewhat favor requiring people who sign up for the governor's Medicaid program to pay a monthly premium and prove they are looking for work or in a job program. Almost one in five (18 percent) strongly or somewhat oppose the governor's plan.

In other results, the poll found:

- The state's two U.S. senators are also struggling with low poll numbers. About a third (35 percent) had a favorable view of Sen. Bob Casey compared to fewer than a quarter (23 percent) with an unfavorable view. Sen. Pat Toomey had an equal proportion of favorable and unfavorables view of him (both 27 percent).

For Casey, his favorability rating is the same as the month before he was re-elected last year (36 percent favorable), though unfavorable views were higher last year (31 percent). Casey does not face re-election until 2018.

Toomey's numbers are pretty close to October 2010, the month before his election. Back then, three in 10 (30 percent) viewed him favorably and about a quarter (26 percent) viewed him unfavorably. Back then, he was not a U.S. senator and now that he is, his job approval rating (22 percent excellent/good) rivals Corbett's. Far fewer (53 percent) than Corbett think Toomey is doing a fair/poor job.

He does not face re-election until 2016.

- The top two Democratic presidential contenders for 2016, Vice President Joseph Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, are popular. Almost three in five (57 percent) have a favorable view of Clinton while almost half (49 percent) have a favorable view of Biden.

bkrawczeniuk@timesshamrock.com

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