If only Wes Welker had
made just one more catch. It was 2nd
and 11 with just over 4 minutes to go in Super Bowl XLVI when Welker got free
behind the Giant secondary and dropped a pass he’d hauled in countless times
before at New York’s
20. Unable to convert, the Patriots
punted the ball away and for the second time in five years fell victim to an
Eli Manning Super Bowl comeback victory.
So the question I have is this – Do the Patriots get off the canvas and
back to the top of the conference, or is it someone else’s time. Houston? Pittsburgh?

Despite the presence of
arguably the game’s best tight end, Rob Gronkowski, and fellow phenom Aaron
Hernandez, Tom Brady suffered (if you can say a 13-3 team suffered) from the
lack of a vertical threat. Enter Brandon
Lloyd. The veteran receiver follows
former coach Josh McDaniels to the Patriots and gives the Patriots the most
legit receiver they’ve had opposite Welker since before Moss quit trying. The sky is the limit for Lloyd in this
offense, but I think the star of the show is going to be Hernandez. I look for the third year tight end to be nearly
uncoverable. Speaking of Welker, one has
to wonder if watching both of the tight ends land big extensions will have any
effect on his play. Welker is 31, and if
Lloyd makes the impact I expect he will, the Patriots might watch Welker walk
next March. Second year back Stevan
Ridley figures to take over the bulk of the backfield work with BenJarvus
Green-Ellis moving on to Cincinnati. Assisting Brady and the run game is quite
possibly the league’s deepest offensive line.
Nate Solder slides in at left tackle for the retired Matt Light, but the
rest of the unit returns intact. I fully
expect Brady to have another MVP caliber season, and the play of his offensive
line should be a key factor in him doing so.

The defense got a much
needed boost on April 26 when Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower became
Patriots. Jones is the guy I mocked
going to the Jaguars at #7 overall as someone with a huge upside and ability to
contribute right away. Bill Belichick is
counting on him doing just that as Jones steps into the starting spot vacated
by Andre Carter. I see him finishing in
the top five in Defensive ROY voting at the end of the season. Hightower looks to contribute right away as
well. He’ll bring his versatility and
physicality to a group that already consists of standout Jerod Mayo and another
intense linebacker in Brandon Spikes.
You can’t not mention Vince Wilfork, the big man in the middle still
demanding double teams. Things aren’t as
rosy in the secondary. Devin McCourty
fell off in a big way in his sophomore season, and Ras-I Dowling couldn’t shake
a hip injury and end up missing almost all season. Kyle Arrington and his NFL leading 8 INTs are
certainly a bright spot, and if Alfonzo Dennard can behave and get over a
training camp hamstring problem he could be a draft day steal. At safety, Patrick Chung hasn’t yet reached
the level I expected he would by now.
He’s likely to be flanked at free safety by free agent signee Steve
Gregory; a versatile veteran who projects well in this scheme.

Last year they went 13-3
with a subpar secondary and a pass rush led by two guys who are no longer on
the team (Andre Carter and Mark Anderson).
I think they’re better at RB with Vereen, obviously better at receiver
with Lloyd over the pedestrian Deion Branch and Chad Johnson, and rejuvenated
up front defensively with Jones and Hightower.
It would be a disappointment if they didn’t again reach the conference
title game.

Buffalo started 5-2 last year, including victories over
New England and Philadelphia,
but it was all downhill from there. The
Bills went 1-8 the rest of the way, losing 7 in a row for most of that stretch
and finished in last place. In a
completely related event, Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled through the second half
for the second year in a row and led the league in INTs with 23. For some perspective, the offensive line led
the league in sacks allowed with, yes, 23.
That tells me Fitzpatrick is simply making poor decisions with the
football. The defense was a sieve,
allowing the most yards per game in team history. They were also among the league’s worst at
getting after the passer. Will things be
different in 2012?

Fred Jackson returns from
a broken leg and teams with CJ Spiller to give the Bills a solid rushing
combo. Spiller more than held his own in
Jackson’s
absence, showing the rushing and receiving skills the Bills thought they were
getting when taking him 9th overall in 2010. Stevie Johnson returns as the #1 receiver
with Donald Jones and David Nelson vying for the other starting spot. Johnson topped 1,000 yards for the second
straight season but didn’t take his game to the next level as hoped. After signing a big extension in March, will
he be content with where his is as a player, or will he take that next
step? Up front, they’re really large at
tackle with rookie LT Cordy Glenn and RT Erik Pears. This is an underrated unit that should be
even better with the acquisition of Glenn and the return to health of center
Eric Wood. The success of this offense
will hinge upon the decision making of Fitzpatrick.

One way to address
defensive deficiencies is to replace the coordinator. They did that by hiring veteran coach Dave
Wannstedt. Another way to get better is
to get yourself a game changing force.
They did that by signing Mario Williams in free agency. The former Texan heads north and will be the
marquee player on this squad. In Buffalo
Williams returns to a 4-3 scheme more suiting his skills and will be lining up
next to promising tackle Marcell Dareus.
In the secondary, 2012 draftee Stephon Gilmore steps in as a starter
across 2011 draftee Aaron Williams giving the Bills two potential long term
fixtures at corner. If those two can
handle themselves on the boundaries Mario Williams will reap the benefits. The key to this defense though may be MLB
Kelvin Sheppard, the second year player from LSU. The Bills are really excited the fast and
physical backer.

If all goes according to
plan, the Bills will lean heavily on Jackson and Spiller in the ground
game. I believe Fitzpatrick can lead
this team to the playoffs, but he’s got to significantly cut down on the
turnovers, especially if the defense doesn’t make strides. If the defense does stiffen, the Bills should
be in line for a shot at their first playoff appearance since 1999.

Last year saw the Jets
finish 8-8, the team’s worst record since 2007, and miss the conference championship
game for the first time in the last three seasons.They suffered through two separate three game
losing streaks and were a meager 2-6 away from home.

Offensively, Mark Sanchez
threw 9 more TDs than the previous season but also tossed 5 more INTs as
well. I’m still not a fan, and I don’t
see how he’s going to get any better with the Teblow sideshow coming to
town. Shonn Greene achieved 1K for the
first time in his career, but he’s a limited runner who might have already
shown his potential. Gone are veterans
Plaxico Burress and LaDainian Tomlinson, and the lone proven wide receiver,
Santonio Holmes is sidelined this preseason with a rib injury. Will Stephen Hill be a reliable weapon in his
first season? Dustin Keller has
increased his seen his production go up over the last three seasons, but are
the Jets getting any better with him as the center of the passing game? Up front, Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw
Ferguson are still among the game’s elite at their positions, but the rest of
the unit makes you cringe. Matt Slauson
was basically handed his old job because Vladimir Ducasse has been too big of a
bust to replace him, and RT Wayne Hunter is arguably the game’s worst starting
tackle.

The defense doesn’t
appear to be sprinting in the right direction either. Darrelle Revis remains one of the game’s
best, but there were rumblings of a holdout this offseason due to unhappiness
about a contract to which there remains two years. I see things getting worse rather than better
in this situation. David Harris remains
the stabilizing force of the defense, but he doesn’t appear to be taking his
game to the next level. The situation at
safety was atrocious, so they brought in LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell. The former still isn’t completely back from
his Achilles injury. On the positive
side, Sione Pouha and Muhammad Wilkerson are two strong forces up front, and
Quinton Coples has earned positive reviews so far. In the pass rushing department, Calvin Pace
should do better now that he appears to be healthy, and Aaron Maybin was a
pleasant surprise. The latter could be
even more dangerous with a full training camp under his belt.

The QB situation wreaks
of controversy, and I don’t believe Greene is a back this team is going to be
able to lean on to get them back to the top of the AFC. Will the offensive line’s play improve? Will the Revis situation become an in-season
distraction? I think there’s too much
going against this team to get them back to contention this season. Hey they’ll sell jerseys though.

The Tony Sparano era is
over. After an 11-5 record and playoff
berth in his first season as head coach in 2008, the Dolphins went 18-27 the
rest of his tenure with three straight losing seasons making that five sub .500
seasons in the last six years. What can
Joe Philbin bring to the table?

When analyzing any team’s
offense one has to first look at the QB position, and even the most optimistic
fan would struggle to find a lot of good things to say about their
starter. David Garrard was the #1 in
camp, but he went down with a knee injury.
Matt Moore was outplayed by a guy who was out of the league last year,
and he’ll likely start week one and every week after until Philbin is ready to
hand things over to Ryan Tennehill.
Reggie Bush rushed for over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career
that he’s rejuvenated in Miami. He’s the lead rusher ahead of the
disappointing Daniel Thomas and promising prospect Lamar Miller. They may have rid themselves of Brandon
Marshall and his problems, but that doesn’t make them any better on the
field. Chad Johnson was signed to ease the
on-field loss, but he got dropped after headbutting his wife. Davone Bess has been a reliable receiver, but
he’s not a big playmaker. Brian Hartline
and Legedu Naanee would struggle to shine with Aaron Rodgers getting them the
football. Now throw a rookie under
center. Speaking of centers, the
Dolphins are strong there with Mike Pouncey and even stronger with a now
healthy Jake Long at left tackle. In the
draft they grabbed Jonathan Martin to upgrade right tackle. Talented guard John Jerry is getting his ass
kicked on Hard Knocks. Philbin is
implementing a zone blocking scheme, so even if everyone’s healthy, they’ll
still be learning a new scheme.

Speaking of new schemes,
the Dolphins have switched to a 4-3 defense, and I believe it’s going to have
its own give and take. I think the
transition will be a success in the pass rushing department. Cameron Wake was a solid outside linebacker,
and he should be even more disruptive playing end, a position he played
successfully in the CFL.

It’s the run defense that
concerns me. They were good against the
run in the old scheme, but will that carry over seamlessly in the new
defense? Are Paul Soliai and Randy
Starks better off as 4-3 tackles? Karlos Dansby will be a stud wherever you
line him up, but Koa Misi and Kevin Burnett are uninspiring on the
outside. At corner, Sean Smith has
settled in nicely in one spot, but Vontae Davis was deep in the doghouse and eventually
dealt to Indianapolis. The capable Richard Marshall will take his
spot. Will Yeremiah Bell’s loss be felt
on the back end?

In my opinion the
Dolphins are clearly the fourth best in their division. They’re implementing new offenses and
defenses and have too many questions in key positions. It’s going to be another
long year on SouthBeach.