DEAD OR ALIVE? There’s a growing mood among Senate Dems to abandon ship entirely on energy and climate before the August recess. “Senate Democrats are increasingly divided over whether to move forward on any energy and climate bill in the coming weeks. On one side are those who say it’s too late to move even a modest energy measure, and are urging colleagues to abandon their efforts and bring up a small package of offshore drilling reforms next week before heading home. On the other are ardent liberals, who are mounting a last-ditch campaign to push through an ambitious climate bill with a cap on greenhouse gas emissions … at a caucus meeting of Senate Democrats on Tuesday, the prevailing feeling was that even that measure doesn’t stand a chance, say people familiar with the meeting. ‘The meeting mood wasn't exactly excited about the prospect of doing climate and energy next week,’ said one source familiar with it, who also said ‘not to expect anything but a spill bill.’” http://politi.co/9tLWKK

Good Thursday morning and welcome to Morning Energy, where there’s T minus-four days until debate is supposed to begin on a Senate energy bill, and still no sign of a bill. In conversation with a policy expert close to the climate talks, your Morning Energy hostess observed that the Senate climate bill appears down for the count, beaten, bloody, and barely breathing. But in Congress, as in the movies, that doesn’t always mean dead. “The question is,” said the expert, “Is this a Ron Howard movie or an Ingmar Bergman movie?” Tell me what you think at cdavenport@politico.com

ENERGY CAUCUS TODAY – Senate Dems will spend their weekly policy luncheon trying to hash out a way forward on energy. One menu option that’s looking increasingly appealing: punting the whole thing and leaving the hard stuff until fall, lame duck or a later Congress. Even John Kerry sounds resignedly willing to go that route if necessary, telling POLITICO, “I think right now we’re more the prisoners of timing then we are of substance. I’m convinced of that. I’m not adverse to taking longer to help persuade people if that’s what we need to do because I think the issue will continue to grow in its importance and urgency.”

KERRY AND MERKLEY TRY TO KEEP THE DREAM ALIVE at a 9:30 a.m. Town Hall forum on energy and climate with 200 “real Americans” in the Kennedy Caucus room.

LOBBYING FRENZY – Enviros still aren’t giving up. Wednesday evening, heads of several green groups met with Reid until about 5:30 p.m., and then rushed away from the Capitol in a cluster, pursued by reporters. It seemed as though they were done for the day – but there they were, back in the building just half an hour later for more still more talks, insisting it ain’t over ‘til it’s over. Here’s who was there: Gene Karpinski, president of the League of Conservation Voters, Peter Lehner, executive director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, John Podesta and Dan Weiss of the Center for American Progress, Fred Krupp, President of the Environmental Defense Fund, Joe Mendelson, director of global warming policy at the National Wildlife Federation, and Margie Alt, director of Environment America.

ALSO NOT GIVING UP – Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers, who wrote to Reid on Thursday, “I urge you to put a utility carbon title in your base energy bill that allows this country to move forward in a way that will protect consumers, helps us to modernize our power generation and put Americans back to work.” Letterhttp://politi.co/9VBNUT

Rogers was one of many industry CEOs to whom Sens. Kerry and Joe Lieberman reached out over the past six months as they put together their now-dead-for-real economy-wide climate bill. They also broke new ground, inviting traditional climate enemies from the oil industry and Chamber of Commerce to the negotiating table. But even that outreach never got them within spitting distance of 60 votes. Darren Samuelsohn examines why: http://politi.co/dgCLry

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Senate Dems divided over proceeding with energy bill in coming weeks  They caucus today to hash out a strategy going forward  Two spill hearings, one spill markup today

GAS ATTACK – (Sorry) – A coalition of 66 major manufacturers, agricultural organizations and other industrial energy consumers today send a letter to Reid and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell urging them to avoid any energy or climate legislation that would lead to an increase in demand for natural gas – and to promote exploration of new natural gas. “As manufacturers that rely heavily on the use of natural gas as both an energy source and an essential raw material or “feedstock” we are concerned that legislative fuel switching incentives could result in short and long-term price volatility and higher prices, causing further industrial “demand destruction” that forces good U.S. manufacturing jobs to overseas competitors. Higher natural gas prices will also impact electricity prices, the groups, including the American Chemistry Council, The Dow Chemical Company and the National Corn Growers Association, write. Letterhttp://politi.co/dtnLln

BLANKENSHIP SPEAKS – Don Blankenship, the much-maligned chairman and CEO of Massey Energy Company, headlines the National Press Club luncheon at 12:30 today, in a speech expected to focus on the virtues of surface coal mining. Blankenship has come under heavy fire since the April 5 explosion at Massey’s Upper Big Branch Mine in Montcoal, West Virginia killed 29 miners. Workers’ groups are planning an 11:30 protest outside the press building. We’re intrigued by his black-background, coal-promoting twitter feed, including profile pic of the man himself straddling a shiny orange motorcycle. twitter.com/DonBlankenship.

EXCLUSIVE: HOUSE GREEN JOBS BILL OUTLINE – House Ways and Means Chairman Sandy Levin hasn’t dropped it yet, but could do it as soon as today. To tide you over while you wait for the whole thing, here’s the latest outline, obtained Wednesday night by Morning Energy. Total cost: $27.4 billion. Highlights: Uncapping the 48C manufacturing credit for solar: $6.9 billion. Direct payments in lieu of tax credits for renewable energy projects: $3.8 billion. Extension of investment tax credit for renewable: $2.3 billion. One-year extension of ethanol tax credit: $3.8 billion. Pay-fors: None. Outlinehttp://politi.co/ccLPjQSOME SUGGESTIONS ON PAY-FORS – Out today in the annual “Green Scissors” report from Friends of the Earth, Taxpayers for Common Sense, Public Citizen and Environment America, which identifies $200 billion in what the groups say is wasteful government spending that could be re-channeled to help the environment.

NEW SOX AND NOX RULES – Senate Environment and Public Works holds a 10 a.m. hearing on the new EPA Clean Air Transport Rule that would cut power plant emissions of the acid rain-causing chemicals sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide. This could get feisty, since utilities want a break from these rules in order to get on board with a climate bill.

SPILL SECTION: OIL SUPERMAJORS (MINUS BP) CREATE SPILL RAPID RESPONSE – Four of the world's largest oil companies are creating a strike force to stanch oil spills in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico in a billion-dollar bid to regain the confidence of the White House after BP's Deepwater Horizon disaster. http://bit.ly/dt6zgp

Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners tells Morning Energy this might be a way for oil companies to stave off further legislative response: “It’s intended to create something that isn’t there now. Companies are saying, “we’re going to create a response force ourselves, you can trust us.” And it might vitiate the need for some legislative response. That’s what industry is hoping for. But it’s also like admitting that a response mechanism is needed, and it could also set a baseline, from which Congress could set new regulations.”

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