Tensions are escalating in the Middle East. Faced with a regional
dynamic in which systemic political change beckons, state and non-state
actors alike are increasingly resorting to the use of force to defend
and assert their foundations of power.

Because of the complexity of Middle Eastern politics, it’s best to examine each actor in turn.

Iran. In recent weeks, Iran has dramatically
increased its assertiveness in the region. Just before the U.S.
presidential election, Iran attempted to shoot down
a U.S. surveillance drone that was flying over international waters. In
legal terms, this was an act of war. So, what’s behind Iran’s actions?
The answer is pretty simple: It’s the economy, stupid. Western sanctions
are exerting extreme pressure
on the Iranian economy and, as a result, Iran’s government is facing
growing popular unrest. Iran’s leaders feel that they need to alter the
status quo. So Iran is trying to force the international community back
to the negotiating table. Threatening conflict also tends to drive up
oil prices and improve Iranian government balance sheets. Because I don’t believe that Iran will be willing to give up its nuclear program, I expect the sanctions to continue and Iran to continue lashing out.

Syria. In the past few weeks, Bashar al-Assad has
shown an increased willingness to test the patience of neighboring
countries, especially Turkey and Israel. This is deliberate. With its foreign capital reserves running dry,
the Syrian regime is running out of time to defeat the rebels. Assad
needs a Hail Mary. By threatening neighboring states, Assad does two
things. First, he discourages those states from supporting the rebels.
Second, he sends a message to the West that he will not give up power
without a fight — and that his fall would have major repercussions.

Hezbollah. Because Hezbollah is both an overt
political party and a covert terrorist group, analyzing its activities
is difficult. However, Hezbollah seems to be pursuing a more hardline
strategy now than it has in the past. For instance, the group recently flew a drone over Israel, and it appears to have played a role in the recent assassination
of a senior Lebanese intelligence officer in Beirut. I think there are
two reasons for this. First, Hezbollah is trying to act as a
counterweight to Western pressure on Assad — essentially, Hezbollah is
seeking to support Assad by threatening violent regional instability
unless the West backs down from its efforts against him. Second, along
with Hamas (see below), Hezbollah is attempting to reinforce Iran’s
threats.

Hamas. Over the last few days, Hamas has been
indirectly attacking Israel with rocket strikes from the Gaza Strip
(Hamas claims that Islamic Jihad is responsible for these attacks, but
Hamas controls Gaza). Again, why? I believe that Hamas is attempting to
push Israel into an over-reaction that would distract the region from
Assad and Hezbollah, while also providing moral support to Iran’s
increasingly aggressive strategy. Hamas may also be trying to
consolidate its political support in Gaza.

Israel. Israel is faced with a multitude of
increasingly hostile enemies. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is
trying to deter those enemies by projecting strength. Netanyahu’s
aggressive stance may also be motivated by domestic political
considerations.

Because the stakes in contemporary Middle Eastern politics are so
high, actors are desperate to shape the evolving political environment
in their favor. This is driving them to pursue increasingly risky
courses of action.