Weather dice is loaded

Last Updated: Thursday 11 June 2015

During my weekly conversation with my sister I told her about the unusual searing heat this June, the problems of power cuts and how we are coping in India. She, in turn, told me that in Washington DC, where she lives, there was a terrible storm that damaged her roof and uprooted trees in her garden. They were fortunate that they still had electricity, because most houses in the city were in the dark. She also said it was unbearably hot because the region was in the grip of an unprecedented heat wave. Both of us, living across the oceans, in different countries, with vastly different circumstances, were similarly placed.

Is this, then, what the future holds for us—a changing weather that has no boundaries or preferences. And why are we still so reluctant to make the connection between weather events and a changing climate?

This year, like most others, has seen unusual and extreme weather events. In Britain, where weather is always the subject of conversation, it became even more so. The Diamond Jubilee celebrations for the queen were an almost washout, while the Olympic torch’s journey through Britain has been hit by rain and storms. West Yorkshire has been flooded and its people evacuated (this is the third flood in a month). This time it has had one month’s rain in three hours. The country’s Met office says rainfall records have been broken. This June is the wettest since 1910. In Russia, flash floods have claimed the lives of 174 people. In Colorado, as I write, wildfires are ravaging land.

One swallow does not make a summer. But when unusual, extreme weather events begin to happen with increased intensity and frequency, they should make us ponder. In the US, for instance, 2000 heat records have been broken this year. The rate at which these extreme events are striking is not normal.

One may ask: how does the world measure the “increased” frequency of extreme weather? After all weather is always variable. Meteorological departments across the world keep records of changing weather events and patterns. Their records can point out similar events in the past when there was a similar cloudburst or frost or cyclone or freak snow. How does all this add to climate change? The fact is change will happen in our present and our future. Since the world is only now beginning to see the impacts of rising temperature, data over several years does not exist to establish a trend in extreme weather events. Science, at best, can use a model to predict impacts of global temperature rise on climate.

Then there is the next set of questions. Even if extreme events are now being seen and recorded, how does one know this relates to human-made emissions? All this is further complicated by the fact that multiple factors affect weather and another set of multiple factors affects its severity and impact. In other words, the causes of devastation following extreme events—like droughts or floods—are often complicated and involve mismanagement of resources and poor planning.

For instance, we know floods—currently ravaging parts of Assam and Bihar—are caused by unusually high rainfall. But it is also clear we have destroyed drainage in floodplains through utter mismanagement. We built embankments believing we can control the river only to find the protection broken. Worse, we built habitations in floodplains.

This complication hurts people but helps climate deniers. They have a field day saying there is no link between variations in weather and climate change. For instance, when Washington DC, which is burning in heat today, had an equally extreme winter this year, a Republican senator known for his strong views against climate change built an igloo in a shopping mall. This was to mock climate change believers because it was cold, not hot. He could not read the signs. And he is not alone. US media has been squeamish about making the connection between extreme weather events and climate change. It is difficult to say whether this is because the climate skeptics have got to them, or because they are unable to unravel the nuances of scientific messages.

Climate scientists like Myles Allen of University of Oxford in Britain will tell you that the world must begin to differentiate between externally driven changes in climate (or human-induced climate change) and specific weather events. In 2000, Allen’s home was flooded when waters inundated many parts of England and Wales. In 2011, he published a report, which quantified the role of human-induced climate change and concluded that it had doubled the likelihood of floods in the UK. There is more evidence now that the events of today, are confirming the predictions of models.

We know then that human influence has loaded the weather dice to make a particular event more likely. The deck is stacked against us. We will see more impacts of a changing climate in extreme, variable and devastating weather events. Science is now certain. Why are we still hedging our bets?

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I think we need to re-learn

I think we need to re-learn our weather - climate, phenomena, extreme climate events and impact of "Man" made emissions. Yes weather and climate are not controlled by administrative boundaries. thanks

The National Climate Data Center of the US just said that US is facing its biggest drought since 1956 (http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought/index.html). I live in Michigan, generally a water-surplus state because of significant amount of precipitation and proximity to Great Lakes. But a lot of farmers have already lost their crops and rivers are getting drier. This year, we had below-average snowfall and below-average rains.

However, the situation would be much more dire in South-East Asian countries because of the sheer density of people and over-dependence on monsoons. Wonder if our Action Plan on Climate Change is good enough and workable enough to ward off major effects?

The excellent Edit reminds me of an old song: "The foolish man built his house upon the sand, And the rain came down and the floods came up, And the house upon the sands washed away........" But with governments insanely pursuing the present model of exclusive development and growth, is there a choice?

One aspect ofcourse is the denial attitude which unnecessarily hampers progress of sincere work being undertaken to better understand the causes and to identify remedial actions.
The developing countries too will soon have significant growth in per capita energy consumption and the factor not getting enough attention is the need to soon quantify, analyse & understand the impact of year after year rapidly growing population in urban areas due migration of people into these areas - coupled with the rapid year to year rise in per person energy consumption in these areas. This migration is seemingly fuelled by high birth rates and high unemployment coupled with exceedingly low incomes and widespread hunger/poverty in most rural areas. Looks like that any amount of improvement in energy efficiency or pollution control etc will not have desired result till aforesaid issues are also tackled vigorously.
All this and other factors need a sincere highly cooperative global effort instead of countries trying to out smart each other in global conferences.So many countries can cooperate for years and years spending billions to hunt for the GOD PARTICLE- this can be done for this puzzle too. No point running down each other over differences in opinion due whatever reasons - lets all create a spirit of togetherness to really understand and not only find but cooperate fully to also implement remedial actions for this complex issue.

Iam attaching a copy of my new theory on Climate change which suggests that climate change is not just due to CO2 emissions; it is because according to my theory on oxidative dehydration and life processes, burning of fuel and the heated up oceans and earth is producing excessive amount of water vapour. Since latent heat of evaporation is equal to latent heat of condensation, the heat contained in the water vapour melts the glaciers and makes much more water available for surface flow than usual. No wonder the critical point has been reached and the rivers are unable to contain the flow into their banks.

Introduction
Climate change may be defined as abnormal variations in atmospheric and terrestrial conditions that are the result of changes caused by natural and man-made intervention in an ecosystem and may have persisted in the microenvironment and macro environment during the lifetime of the planned or unplanned intervention.

The situation current since the mid-1980s indicate unequivocally that Pakistan is faced with extremes of climate variations resulting from natural as well as manmade modifications. The aftermath of Cyclone 02A, which landed on the low lying coastal area of Badin in May 1999 and the floods in the same area in 2003, were a preview of the impending disaster in 2010 and 2011, all due to man-made interventions to attain rapid economic growth. This has resulted in rapid impoverishment as well as degradation of resources, including water, soil and vegetative cover on the one hand and climate change on the other.

It will be seen in a later section that it is the lust for rapid growth that has induced impoverishment of resources and is responsible for incidence of poverty. Poverty is otherwise not a problem, since people in developing and least developed countries have been living amicably with poverty.

Climatic change is viewed as an abnormality in Pakistan resulting from
(i) Increase as well as decrease in the mean maximum and minimum temperature,
(ii) Deforestation: extensive loss of vegetative/forest cover, and desertification
(iii) Abrupt variations in rainfall and/or snowfall, cloud cover, and receipt of solar energy,
(iv) Decreased availability of water from surface run off and groundwater extraction, and reduction in the water level of the aquifer,
(v) Production of greenhouse gases, including water vapour, nitrogen oxides and methane,
(vi) Land loss to the sea due to subsidence,
(vii) Rise in sea level,

The Abnormalities
1. Temperatures
Many of the abnormalities just mentioned have appeared after the mid-1980s in the form of failure of the monsoon system in completing the western segment of its cycle and widespread precipitation of moisture in its eastern segment with heavy rains causing devastating floods each time. The Abnormalities being noticed are in the magnitude and intensity of heat wave but not in the range in the mean maximum and mean minimum temperature and in the erratic nature of precipitation, snowmelt and river flow since early 1990s1.

The Earth's surface temperature, according to data provided by satellites, indicates little if any warming of the low-to mid- troposphere. The disparity between the surface temperature and upper-air temperature has nevertheless been noted.

The maximum temperatures recorded by PMD have remained at the same level during the last 30 years but the minimum average has increased by 1.5oC to 2.0oC. Analysis of data on the mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures recorded during the nine years (2001 Ã”Ã‡Ã´ 2009) at Karachi Airport Meteorological Station of Pakistan Meteorological Department, given in the above Tables, indicate:
Ã”Ã‡Ã³ The mean monthly maximum temperature in Karachi ranged between 32.0oC and 33.0oC during the 2001-2009 period, while the mean monthly minimum temperature ranged between 21.0oC and 22.5oC.
Ã”Ã‡Ã³ The mean maximum and mean minimum temperature during 1991-99 were 32.2oC and 20.9oC, respectively. This indicates that there has been a slight but significant rise in the mean minimum temperature during the last 30 years.

This is in conformity with the surface warming trend that exists and has become more pronounced after the 1980s. The ten warmest years of the 20th century occurred after 1980, and the three hottest years occurred after 1990, with 1998 being the warmest year of all, and the year 2004 was the fourth warmest year on record, following 1998, 2002 and 2003, which were the first, second and third warmest years respectively. A study published by Nature in February 2005, found that, based upon indirect temperature records found in tree rings and other natural phenomena, the global warming trend since 1990 has not been matched for at least 2,000 years.

The low cloud cover and increased sunshine has resulted in rise in temperature of landmass in the hinterland of the Arabian Sea. High temperatures such as 55oC recorded at Moenjo Daro on May 25 setting the fourth world record, have (i) since turned large territory of Pakistan into an extensive heat zone, and (ii) raised the temperature of the North Arabian Sea by 1oC to 1.5oC.

Deposition of material around vegetation is evidence of wind transport of sediment

The heat zone serving as the main heat engine for the monsoon system, while the significant rise in temperature of the Arabian Sea has led to high evaporation rates over the sea surface. This has led to higher salinity and hence to higher heat content of the Arabian Sea. These are sufficient conditions to create salinity steep gradient in addition to thermal gradients and trigger cyclones in the high seas, and the Arabian Sea was no exception.

Higher temperature of the Arabian Sea and its high heat capacity makes more water vapor available over the sea surface which in turn produces more rain bearing clouds and more than usual rainfall and snowfall.

Rise in temperature of the sea indicates onset and persistence of low-pressure zone on land and temperatures higher than the critical 26oC that may induce thermal gradient at the sea. High salinity will induce steep gradient on the sea. The former parameter i.e. heat zone can attract rain bearing winds in case they are around, while the latter can nucleate cyclones/storms. Such attraction of moisture laden winds did cause severe storms, the latest August and September 2011 and June 6, 2010; and the earlier one on June 5, 2007; on August 21, 2007; and August 17, 2006, and brought sudden heavy rains of as much as 50 to 100 mm in two to three hours.
Over the past three decades, the pertinent findings on climate change indicate that:
The abnormal changes have occurred because of i) the typical geographical location of the country in the arid region at the head of the Arabian Sea that has a surplus heat budget, and ii) manmade interventions are largely responsible for a number of these events. Because of the surplus heat budget, the high temperatures on land have:
a. induced high evaporation rates all over including the seas; on land it has increased the aridity of soil and on seas it has increased the vapour content over the sea surface,
b. caused increase in heat capacity of the land and the seas, which allows retention of thermal energy in the two systems, and thus
c. raised the temperature of the Arabian Sea by at least 1oC to 1.5oC and higher near the shoreline.

The high heat content of the Arabian Sea and its hinterland as well as formation of extensive heat zone over Pakistan have disturbed the heat balance and water-balance of the region, and have at least partly modified the monsoon cycle.

Higher temperature of the Arabian Sea and its high heat capacity makes more water vapor available over the sea surface which in turn produces more rain bearing clouds and more than usual rainfall and snowfall.

2. Air-Glacier Interaction
More water vapor in the atmosphere also means increased condensation of water saturated air at greater heights leading to increased snowfall. Since latent heat of vaporization is the same as the latent heat of condensation, snowfall will induce melting of snow and formation of ice. This may be the reason for increase in the formation of glacial lakes and increase in ice cover in the glacier areas.

The March 2011 maximum ice coverage value was 14.64 million square kilometres; this is down 7.7 percent from the 1979 to 2000 average. The September 2011 minimum ice coverage value was 4.33 million square kilometres, the second lowest on record after 2007 and 31 percent lower than the 1979 to 2000 average. The five summers between 2007 and 2011 have seen five of the lowest ice coverage values and the 10 summers between 2002 and 2011 have seen nine of the ten lowest values. The following is a graph showing the gradual percentage decrease in both maximum and minimum ice extent values since 1979 (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-KrL-HQlBjs/TtlcWc9VD5I/AAAAAAAABpg/rRLWdmCIPB8/s1600/Screen+shot+2011-12-02+at+7.07.07+PM.png):

A report in the Daily Times of April 14, 2012 confirms this AuthorÃ”Ã‡Ã–s view that the Karakorum Glaciers have gained a small amount of mass between 1999 and 2008 Nature Geoscience, April 2012). The Karakoram mountain range in the Himalayas has contributed less to sea level rise than previously thought. The study estimates that the Karakoram glaciers have gained around 0.11 to 0.22 metres per year between 1999 and 2008, and concludes that Karakoram glaciers had a small mass gain at the beginning of the 21st century indicating that the central/eastern glaciers are not representative of the whole (Himalayas). The Karakoram mountain range spans the borders between India, China and Pakistan and is covered by 19,950 square kilometres of glaciers. It is home to the second highest mountain in the world, K2 (http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C04%5C16%5Cstory_16-4-2012_pg7_3).

3. Man Made Interventions
3.1 Development Activities
Deforestation has been held largely responsible for inducing modifications in the climatic norms [(G.P. Kalinin and V.D. Bykov, The World Water resources, Present and Future, in Ecology of Man: An Ecosystem Approach, ed. R. L. Smith, Harper & Row Publishers, New York, 1972), Mirza Arshad Ali Beg (1977) Environmental Problems of Pakistan, Working Paper for the International Seminar on Environmental Risk Assessment in an International Context, Tihanyi, Hungary, pp. 30]. This author had in the late 1990s argued that the precipitation across the Himalayas in Tibet and over the catchment area of the Brahamputra was much higher than over the Indus perhaps because of extensive deforestation in the eastern Himalayas prompted the monsoon winds to cross over unrestrained by the high mountains.

Anthropogenic activity has, through increased oxidative dehydration of land, burning of biomass and other combustibles, increased the concentration of the GHGs, warmed the microenvironment and left the CO2 and other acidic gases unabsorbed. The warmth can be reduced by reductive rehydration of the CO2, and other acidic gases. The latter process is in operation among the plants and vegetation on land and by phytoplankton in the sea. Removal of vegetative cover through indiscriminate cutting of trees for lumber or clearing land for agricultural activities has deforested extensive land area and produced excessive GHGs. This has restrained the natural process of reductive rehydration by photosynthesis and thus the heat generated has increased the warmth of the environment, and the unabsorbed GHGs have been left free to selectively acidify the microenvironment. GHGs in appropriate concentration in the atmosphere are needed nevertheless to maintain the heat balance. Life forms on Earth rely on maintenance of the Oxidative Dehydration-Reductive Rehydration (OD-RR) balance, without which, the planet would be colder by at least 33oC, and ice would cover the Earth from pole to pole. Contrarily, a growing excess of these gases would, as it does now, threaten to tip the balance towards continual warming.

3.2 Air Emissions
The pollution due to these emissions is set to grow in coming decades, because in case of reduced availability of fossil fuel, much more than the present seven billion tons of biomass will be burned. Likewise forest fires, which are mostly triggered by lightning and are responsible for an estimated 20 per cent of CanadaÃ”Ã‡Ã–s carbon dioxide emissions, will further reduce the forest cover.

Another factor that is contributing to the observed climate change is the sulphate aerosol induced fog that is observed during winter over the area from Multan to Islamabad, and the Ã”Ã‡Ã¿Brown HazeÃ”Ã‡Ã– observed over South Asia There is an annual slow down of economic activity for at least five weeks due to the fog that has its origin in the south of the Himalayas in India. The Brown haze observed over South Asia reduces solar radiation over the concerned areas and thus reduces availability of moisture in the air. This has aggravated the impact of climate change. The root cause of the brown fog is sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emitted by foundries and other industrial units using coal as fuel in the region extending from Bengal and Bihar to Uttar Pradesh and Gujrat in India. These emissions are likely to multiply with increasing use of coal for intensification of industrial activity in India.

Particulate matter in high proportion causes cooling of air and is cause for creation of high pressure zones that can push moisture laden winds away from the area. The particles being small in size tend to suppress rainfall because the water droplets that condense on them are light enough to remain upward. High pressure zones, such as the one that develops over the northern areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, are formed when the concentration of particulate matter in air over land is high. Carpet bombing was overwhelmingly intense in Afghanistan during the critical period when the winter storms cross over into Pakistan. Accordingly the air over the entire territory must have had the level of particulate matter beyond critical limits. As such the high pressure zone so formed did not allow the winter storms to reach Pakistan. It might be interesting to note that climate change of similar nature was also noted when Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by atomic bombs. Temperature of the macroenvironment recorded a rise and the macroclimatic conditions had changed.

Crutzen, of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, however attributes the brown fog created over the Tropics to biomass burning in the tropics and. Emissions from biomass burning and other anthropogenic activities have the potential to cause a cooling effect by blocking the warmth of the sun, which according to his calculations is almost ten times greater than the warming from greenhouse gases. The reason that the region on the north, south and east of the Himalayas does not show cooling is that much of the pollution is due to black soot, which absorbs the sunlight and then itself radiates heat towards the ground. According to Crutzen the tropical smog could have major consequences for the atmosphere, since for one thing they could upset the hydrological cycle that maintains the monsoons. They might also use up large amounts of the atmosphere's main cleansing agent, the hydroxyl radical, thus damaging the ability of the atmosphere to cleanse itself.

This argument is supported by the observation that the brisk activity initiated in the mid-1990s on both sides of the Tibet Plateau in China and India has had to use coal for fueling the economy and to achieve a growth rate of their GDP of over 8 percent. The natural outcome of this race to achieve high growth rate in the name of improvement of quality of the people and thus to gain supremacy in the Region is impoverishment of resources and the consequent degradation of the environment.

4. Irrigation System
The other Manmade intervention that has spanned over at least half a century as a non-sustainable development activity is the irrigation system that has outlived its age have resulted in warming of the Arabian Sea and thus caused an irreversible damage to the ecosystem of this part of the earth. It has impoverished the entire delta area comprising the Thatta and Badin Districts of its only resource: Freshwater!

The irrigation system has diverted the freshwater into the agricultural fields and very little freshwater flows into the Arabian Sea. This is not all; no freshwater flows into the Arabian Sea from any river on the coast of East Africa, the Gulf Countries, Tigris and Euphrates, the small rivers of Balochistan, the Indus delta in Pakistan, and the Tapti and Narbada on the western coast of India. It goes without saying that having dammed the rivers the Arabian Sea has been damned by making its coastline hyper-saline.

The hyper-salinity at the coastline is nearly 4 percent compared with 3.5 percent salinity of the seawater. The hyper-salinity is the result of high rate of evaporation caused by the high temperatures on land which forms the heat zone that drives the heat engine of the monsoon system.

The development activities with respect to irrigation system have deprived the Indus delta of the 8.2 MAF water flow that it used to get in the 1950s i.e. before construction of the Kotri Barrage. This activity reduced the flow of freshwater downstream Kotri. Consequent upon the reduced flow, the Indus delta instead of protruding started receding and is now allowing seawater to intrude up to Kotri Barrage. This then is yet another irreversible damage done to the ecosystem of the Indus Delta (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Ecological Imbalances in the coastal areas of Pakistan and Karachi harbour, Pakistan Journal of Marine Sciences, 4(2), 159-74, 1995), (H.T. Sorley (1964) The Gazetteer of West Pakistan: The Former Province of Sind, Government of West Pakistan, Lahore, pp-11,).

4.1 Seawater-Coastal Land Interaction
Salinity values recorded recently are in conformity with the change in ecology of floodplains and delta area after the mid-1960s, and the adverse and irreversible impacts it has had in
i) depriving the delta area of its share of freshwater on which the traditional rice crop was harvested, and ii) inducing seawater intrusion by extensively harvesting the groundwater.

The changes brought about by construction of embankments from Kashmore to the sea and reduced flow or no flow downstream Kotri have reduced the aquifer discharge and increased its salinity besides inducing major changes in the deltaic ecosystem. The earlier volume of normal flow into the channels and creeks has been drastically reduced, while the pattern of water flow has been completely altered during the last fifty years. The large delta with an intricate network of rivulets and creeks had shrunk after the construction of embankments and was restricted to two small channels Turshian and Khobar. The freshwater flow into the creeks has been restrained to periods of massive flood flow. This was, for example, the observed situation in December 1992 and January 1993, 1997, 2006, 2010 and 2011.

Surveys conducted in 1993-94 noted that freshwater was available in the coastal areas and that kept the salinity level within optimum limits. The electrical conductivity of the samples of seawater collected from the root zone of a few mangrove trees in Keti Bunder had indicated that the salinity in the region was in the range of 33 to 35 ppt. Similar range of values was noted for the seawter at the Hajamro Creek near the high water line about 15 km to the Southwest of Keti Bunder. These values were found lower than those observed for the creeks near Karachi viz. 38 to 40. The observed salinity range of 35 ppt suggests that adequate interaction of the seawater with freshwater was taking place to effect the much needed dilution. In the past, however, the water would flow through the creeks during the floods; and would inundate the deltaic zone; it would thereafter be restricted to streamflow during the winter months.

The inflow-outflow balance that was, until the mid-1950s, being maintained by river flow and flood flow is, since the mid-1990s replaced by seepage from canals and distributaries. This has caused the reversal in the flow of groundwater from the canals instead of the stream flow from the Indus. The seepage of the order of 0.3 MAF out of the 3.0 MAF received from Kalri Baghar Feeder was, in the 1990s seen flowing into old river basins, creeks and depressions (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Ecological Imbalances in the coastal areas of Pakistan and Karachi harbour, Pakistan Journal of Marine Sciences, 4(2), 159-74, 1995). Because of the failure of the system, the seepage flow into the creeks has increased to 0.6 MAF. The creeks are, as noted above, no longer hypersaline, with salinity ranging above 35 ppt; they are hyposaline with salinity in the 23 to 29 ppt range, the dilution having been effected by the seepage which has, according to the above estimates exceeded the normal 10% and is rated at 15 to 25% as a result of cultivation of the water intensive rice crop that by the traditional system also requires puddling the fields.

Salinity Intrusion: Reduction in streamflow is responsible for salinity intrusion in the sense that with reduced flow or no flow of water downstream Kotri reversed the outflow-inflow system and outflow of freshwater had to yield to inflow of saline water from the sea. Intrusion of seawater into the Indus River has been noted by the findings on increase in total salt content in and along the Indus River stream. The total salt content has been found to increase from 120 to 145 mg/l at upstream Kotri Barrage to 190 to 220 mg/l at Kotri Bridge (Railway), 650 to 810 mg/l at Talib Dal Goth; 750 to 1040 mg/l at Sonda; 1050 to 1570 mg/l at Sujawal; 2000 to 7800 mg/l at Odero Lal; 28,000 to 39,000 mg/l at Jange Sir; 32,000 to 44,000 mg/lat Kharo Chann and 37,000 to 44,000 mg/l at Keti Bunder (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Lead Author of Higher Education Commission Project: Ecosystem Research on Water Resources in Sindh West December 2010).

The tidal channels in Indus Delta are generally hyper saline with the salinity range of 38 to 45 ppt over the period when there is no water flowing from the river and irrigated fields. It is hypo-saline from June to September when the rains and the runoff from Indus River reduce the sea water Salinity to 26 to 30 ppt (Harrison et al., 1994). The more recent surveys conducted in the year 2010 have noted the values recorded in the following Table (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Lead Author of Higher Education Commission Project: Ecosystem Research on Water Resources in Sindh West December 2010):

It has been found during the surveys that salinity of seawater has increased though only slightly. Seawater on sea front generally has TDS ~ 38200 -38800 ppm and DO 4.0 Ã”Ã‡Ã´ 4.4 mg/L at 30.1oC; while seawater in sheltered channels generally has TDS in excess of 40,000 and DO ~ 3.0 at 30.4 oC. It was also found that the salinity given by total dissolved solids was in excess of 44000 ppm in the days preceding the cyclonic activity in early June 2010 (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg, Lead Author of Higher Education Commission Project: Ecosystem Research on Water Resources in Sindh West December 2010).

4.2 Reduction in Silt Load
Diversion of water into dams and barrages has reduced the availability of silt load in the streamflow downstream Kotri. The Indus and its tributeries carry detritus in suspended material and bed loads varying from 0.5 to 500 million tons. It has been estimated that some 675 MT of sediment was being discharged by the Indus prior to the construction of the dams and barrages, 60% of which used to be deposited in the river channels and approximately 250 MT reached the estuary where there was a 9 m accretion in the flood plain during the past 5000 years and a seaward growth of 80 km in the delta during the last 2000 years(J.D. Milliman, G.S. Quraishee and Mirza Arshad Ali Beg (1984) Sediment Discharge from the Indus River to the Ocean: Past, Present and Future, Marine Geology and Oceanography of Arabian Sea and Coastâ”¬Â¼al Pakistan ed. B.U. Haq and J.D. Milliman, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York, pp 65-70). The construction of barrages has provided the obstacles in the flow of water and has led to selective settlement of detritus there and/or to their diversion into canals and onwards into the farms. As such the sediment load now reaches the sea only during flood flow and does not constitute even 5% of what was brought in the 1980s. Accordingly sediment flow into the Indus Canyon and the deltaic system may have been seriously reduced.

Suspended matter: The suspended matter in the creek areas has an annual range of 25-170 ppm. The higher values were observed during the southwest monsoon period (usually May-August) and also during the period preceding the 2010 cyclone: Phet. The average suspended load during June-July was between 80-115 ppm. However, higher values (115-170 ppm) were also recorded at some places in the Gharo/Korangi Creek system. Lower suspended matter (25-50 ppm) was recorded during March and the September-November period. The suspended load in these creeks also exhibits variations with the degree of turbulence during a tidal cycle. During the flood season in the Indus River (September) the suspended load rises to about 4000 ppm in Khobar Creek and to about 1500 to 2000ppm in the adjacent creeks.

5. Land Subsidence
Reduced water flow downstream Kotri has also resulted in land erosion and land submergence. Erosion downstream Kotri barrage has exposed the bedrock which is now only about 3 meter level, which is within the high tide range.

The seawater current pattern has apparently assumed adequate potential energy to erode the Indus river estuary and surfaces of the land over the creeks and this is the reason that many of the islands between Keti Bunder and Mirpur Sakro have lost their identity, Lakha Island in Union Council Boharo in Taluka Mirpur Sakro, being an example.

This leads to the conclusion that erosion of the coastline is responsible for the observed intrusion of seawater and sea level rise is not apparent yet.

6. The Cyclones
Increase in sunshine period, high temperatures over the extensive heat zone, windstorms and low rainfall all appear to fit into the general monsoon pattern. These are also the ideal conditions for Tropical Cyclones, which occur primarily during summer in the Northern Hemisphere and during autumn in the Southern Hemisphere. The necessary conditions for development of cyclones are warm ocean waters with temperatures of at least 26â”¬â–‘C, a tropical atmosphere that can quite easily kick off convection causing thunderstorms, low vertical shear in the troposphere, and a substantial amount of large-scale spin available, either through the monsoon trough or easterly waves.

In the North Arabian Sea the ocean reaches its warmest temperatures in the month of May and thus the conditions for peaking of the cyclones are obtained much earlier than late June which is the time for maximum solar radiation in the tropical Northern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation in the tropics is also favorable for tropical cyclones.

One of the indicators of intensity of monsoon activity is upwelling that comes along with the Mozambique current. In the years 2007 and 2010 there was reason for upwelling to intensify because
i) input of sunshine over the land area of Pakistan had increased, and ii) salinity gradient was created at the mid-tropical region of the Arabian Sea where the cool hyposaline layers of seawater from the Antarctica were creating deep gradients with the hypersaline layers from the heated up coastline along the Arabian Sea.

The thunderstorm that struck the Northern Areas and Azad Kashmir from the start of second week of May in 2007 and also in 2010 was part of the western system and its incidence was not unusual. Its intensity and the damage done were severe in each case.
In the month of July 2011 Pakistan received below normal monsoon rains; however in August and September a strong weather system entered the areas of Sindh from the Indian States of Rajasthan and Gujrat in August and gained strength with the passage of time. That was responsible for the heavy downpours in the southern part of the country where above normal monsoon rains were recorded. The four weeks of continuous rain created an unprecedented flood situation in Sindh.
District Badin received record breaking rainfall of 615.3 millimeters during the monsoon spell breaking earlier records of 121 millimeters in Badin in 1936. The area of Mithi received record rainfall of 1,290 millimeters during the spell, where maximum rainfall recorded was 114 millimeters in 2004. The heavy cloudburst on August 10, 2011 induced continuous rainfall for 46 hours in Badin District where 350 millimetres of rain was recorded. According to estimates the total volume of water fallen over Sindh during the four weeks was above 37 million acre feet. (Pakmet.com.pk. Retrieved on 19 September 2011).

7. SOCIOECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Climate variability and change profoundly influence social and natural environments throughout the world, and Pakistan is no exception. The consequent impacts on natural resources, agriculture, energy and industry are large and far-reaching. The seasonal to inter-annual climate fluctuations have singled out the criticality of the agricultural production system, and of the limitations on availability of key resources, and the demand for energy, while long-term climate change has appeared in the form of alterations in landscapes, recreational activities, agricultural productivity, and the services that ecosystems supply.

The impact of climate change on the economy, particularly agricultural activity, will nevertheless be highly disturbing since per capita water availability will be reduced to below 900m3 and Pakistan will remain a water stressed country. Availability from tube wells will go down each year since the groundwater sources will not be adequately charged.

Rising sea levels, water shortages, melting Arctic ice, and extreme weather events, are indicators of the direct and indirect impact climate change. The impact is leading to degradation of the environment and to impoverishment of resources which in turn is cause for poverty all over. Poverty is the consequence of impoverishment of resources, which acts as an accelerant of instability and conflict. It is perhaps in order to remove the deficiencies caused by the conflicts that places a burden on civil society to act. When compared with other national security challenges, climate change is considered by the rulers of the Industrialized countries as representing a great or a greater threat. In Pakistan, unprecedented floods have killed several hundred people and displaced a few millions, global warming is a myth as well as a reality.

When floods swept through the country in late July 2010 and again in 2011, there was extensive loss of the already impoverished resources. The same phenomena occurred in each episode starting from the cyclone events of 1999, 2007 and 2010, the rainstorm of 2003 and 2011, the 2005 earthquake and the landslide at Atta Abad in 2009. Each time there was displacement of people and stress on public and private resources.

Instead of alleviation of poverty and redressing the stresses created by impoverishment of resources the get-rich-quickly and enjoying the richness syndrome countries found such incidents as opportunity to link them with threats to security and stress on weak and fragile states, and the creation of conditions that stimulate extremism and terrorism.

The floods, as well as the heat wave in Russia, have been attributed by some meteorologists to a dome of high atmospheric pressure which has diverted the jet stream further south than usual. Instead of dropping the rain where it normally would in Russia the jet stream came down to Pakistan. Combined with the rainfall from the seasonal monsoon in south Asia, this meant too much rain for Pakistan and too little for Russia.

The connections between climate change-induced events and security issues are considered real in view of the disruption of supply routes for NATO forces in Afghanistan by the floods.

The above analysis paints a gloomy picture and presents a worst-case scenario, which deserves serious consideration. Pakistan has already lost time in adopting conservation practices. In terms of wastage it is ranked among the countries that are at the advanced stage of development but in terms of GDP growth versus growth of population it is among the failed states. This shows that economic progress in Pakistan has since been halted and now it is on the path to collapse. It is now time only for crash programmes to save our resources and to live within our means, with a limited budget of less than 90 maf (Mirza Arshad Ali Beg http://www.dawn.com/2002/09/09/ebr14.htm).

Child malnutrition was already a serious problem in Pakistan long before the floods. Pre-flood data revealed 77 million of PakistanÃ”Ã‡Ã–s 175 million people suffered from hunger and 45 million were malnourished. In the province of Balochistan, 27 percent of children under the age of five were malnourished. In Punjab, the province that is home to the majority of Pakistanis, 17 percent of children under five were malnourished, and in KP, 13 percent.

Floods and other climate related disasters cause rise in food prices in a region which is home to half of the world poor. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries have witnessed sky rocketing hike in the prices of daily essentials in recent years. Floods, droughts, bad governance and environmental changes have been held responsible for escalation of price because most of agriculture zones are hit by floods and droughts.

Environmental Degradation, Desertification & Poverty Nexus
Pakistan is located in high heat zone area where the intense heat and high aridity has caused widespread degradation of the ecosystem. The area presents a picture of social pollution playing a dominant role in impoverishment of the meager resources of the land to fulfill the demand for urban and industrial development.

Over exploitation of the meager resources has given rise to degradation of soil, water and vegetation. These three elements of the natural ecosystem serve as the natural foundation for human existence. The fragile ecosystem in Pakistan, has lost the productivity of soil through an irrigation system that has outlived its age, impoverishment of plant, animal, soil and water resources has become irreversible, and has permanently reduced its capacity to support human life.

Impoverishment of resources leading to environmental degradation is both a cause and a consequence of poverty. Therefore, impoverishment of resources leads to desertification which in turn leads to poverty, and the vicious circle completes when poverty leads to further desertification. Operation of the vicious circle is very much apparent from the poverty induced desertification that is rampant all over the rural areas. Shortage of liquid and gaseous fuel created huge demand for firewood. The rural and coastal area is where some small trees are still around and that has prompted the relevant facilitator to go all out for cutting the trees by the root and supplying it to the charcoal kilns owned by him. Hundreds of charcoal kilns have been built just to fulfill this urban and industrial demand and thus the already impoverished rural area has been impoverished further while the short term gain has pushed the wood cutter to absolute poverty.

Level of poverty is increasing further in this arid zone of the world due to ruthless exploitation of the meager resources compounded by frequent droughts, floods and loss of land due to erosion by the sea. The trend, of uprooting shrubs, cutting trees for fuel wood, over grazing due to over stocking, and sand /gravel removal from the river beds, is spreading from the plains to the interior and towards the hills and mountains. If the current trend continues, the already exhausted rangelands will not be in a position to support the existing level of livestock population of the arid region. The economic impact of such a situation has had direct effect on the population and is likely to increase the level of poverty amongst the herders of the area.

Such continuous and uninterrupted degradation of natural resources is pushing the ever growing population for its livelihood to migration to urban centres, which are not prepared to absorb it. The migration of the rural population to the urban areas has amassed the urban areas with social problems by increasing slums around the cities. This situation has created law and order problem in the cities. Because of increasing poverty and lack of basic amenities the most vulnerable sections of population like the children and women are being affected and will be badly affected in the next few years.

Although formal area poverty profile has not been prepared for Thatta and Badin, the secondary data generated by the project preparatory technical assistance (PPTA) shows that 54% are among the Ã”Ã‡Â£poorestÃ”Ã‡Ã˜ category and 79% may be characterized as poor. In a 2004 national survey PakistanÃ”Ã‡Ã–s poorest district was Thatta, and Badin was not far behind. Family income of Rs 5 to7 thousand, arrived at by this Author, already suggests that almost 90% of the families live below the poverty line. All members of the family have to contribute to sustain their subsistence living.

Based on the above analysis, it is possible to conclude that poverty per se is not a problem of the people of Pakistan; it is the impoverishment of resources at the hands of the get-rich-quickly Syndrome that has induced poverty. The poor have otherwise learnt to live within their means and hence poverty irks them only when they find that the get-rich-quickly syndrome has left him far behind his neighbor.

Human impact on precipitation has two components. One is associated with global warming associated with Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and the second one is associated with ecological changes -- land use and land cover changes. So far the impact of former is not seen and the later affect the precipitation at local and regional level. What we are observing in precipitation is natural variation. Let me give an example of the lowest and the highest rainfall recorded in three meteorological sub-divisions of Andhra Pradesh in June, July, August & September since 1871:

From the above table you can see the extreme rainfall pattern. It is same all over India. At all India level, the variation may not be that high as the Coefficient of Variation is less than 10.0%. Because of this since 1989 the long range forecasts do not go out of 90% to 110% of average rainfall even with sophisticated computers as scientists do not know the real factors that affect monsoon rainfall. Because of this farmers in hundred and thousands of years experience with the monsoon our ancisters developed crops and cropping systems that cope up with the vagaries of monsoon but with the green revolution technology we lost this and thus make hue and cry.

"US media has been squeamish about making the connection between extreme weather events and climate change. It is difficult to say whether this is because the climate skeptics have got to them, or because they are unable to unravel the nuances of scientific messages."

1. Majority of that is Republican media, = big businesses, who will lose if corrective action is to be taken. They will continue this way until climate change corrective actions can be converted in to business opportunities

2. Majority of republicans (and Americans) also are creationists, believe that God created the world, and we cannot make any impact on it, it's all God's play. To some extent, keeping this view widely prevalent suits the business interests, who need people to be kept together as a flock.

Please read the manual published by World Meteorological Organization of United Nations on "Climate Change" in 1966. This report was based on the experts from meteorological departments world over. The climate change consists of natural in built variations and man induced variations. The natural variation consists of irregular variations (extremes of individual years or seasons) and systematic variations that could be extracted using several mathematical/statistical procedures and the man induced variations are expressed by trend -- increasing or decreasing -- which can be derived through statistical procedures.

There are several localized changes in weather due to changes in land use and land cover changes like deforestation, reforestation, urbanization, creation or destruction of water bodies, replacing dry-land agriculture with irrigated agriculture, destruction of orography, mining activity, transport activity, tourism in the ecologically sensitive areas, etc but these are mainly localized and at the most regional changes. All these influence all meteorological parameters but Anthropogenic greenhouse gases affect temperature but there is controversy on how much. Even in Temperature at global level follow a systematic variation of 60-year cycle varying between -0.3 to +0.3 degrees Celsius with trend part reaching by 2100 to 1.13 degrees Celsius. So far this has no influence on rainfall. Even IPCC acknowledged this few months back.

About Gangotri IPCC has withdrawn its statement from the report. Initially due to underground disturbance glacier retreat was around 20m/year and now this is reduced to 6 m/year. This is being monitored by GSI a government body. However, year to year variations are superposed on this. About the flow in to rivers starting from Himalayan ranges like Chenab, Ravi and Beas show a rhythm (number of flood years)that is seen in Indian rainfall -- 60-year cycle.

Scorching heat during summers in North India cannot be compared to the mild summer in North East USA. Heat is mild here partly due to the dense vegetation that is protected unlike in India where the same has been ravaged.

"CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. IÃ”Ã‡Ã–m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause."

The human impact on precipitation is, according to my thesis, associated both with 1) global warming resulting from anthropogenic greenhouse gases that necessarily includes water vapour; and 2) ecological changes brought about by excessive deforestation that has caused expansion of the heat zone that drives the monsoon engine. The human intervention should be considered as the cause and effect of the two components.

This leads to the conclusion that the heavy precipitation that is being recorded day in and day out is not just natural variation but is very much associated with man-made interventions that have brought about changes in ecology.

The expansion of heat zone as a consequence of man induced deforestation has assumed unestimated proportions now that we have only expensive liquid hydrocarbon to combust in our engines.

The melting of glaciers in the Eastern Himalayas and consolidation of glaciers in the Karakorum is a reality. Both these processes are related to excessive moisture being made available as a result of excessive heat over land and the consequent heating up of the Bay of bengal on the east and the Arabian Sea on the west of the Indian Peninsula.

The Bay of Bengal and the Arabian are home to large deltaic regions of the mighty rivers which no longer carry freshwater to these regions.

The reduced flow or almost no-flow of freshwwater has increased the salinity of the two regional seas, while the high temperatures of the heat zone has raised the temperatures as well as heat capacity of the Seas.

I therefore reiterate the conclusions of my theory that climate change is not just due to CO2 emissions; it is because of the cumulative effect of burning of fuel as well as the heated up oceans and earth that is producing excessive amount of water vapour. Since latent heat of evaporation is the same as latent heat of condensation, the heat contained in the water vapour melts the glaciers and makes much more water available for surface flow than usual. Exceeding the critical point will result in excessive surface flow and the rivers will overflow their banks.

The flood flow will erode more sediment and will transport it from the northern latitudes to the southern and slowly shift the mass balance besides more dissolved solids, including salts.

The impact of anthropogenic activity has shifted the optimum balance of CO2 and Moisture and has excessive moisture in the air all over the world and hence excessive rainfall and snowfall and also above normal snowmelt.

Almost 53 billion m3, water had flown downstream into the Arabian Sea during the last floods (2011); this is about half the annual receipt into the Indus River System. That perhaps was instrumental in lowering the salinity of the Arabian Sea. The critical level that builds the salinity gradient at about 12 degrees North was not achieved and hence no cyclonic activity was observed in the May-June period this year (2012).

The shifting of mass balance from the 35-45 degrees to 20 -25 degrees north is also real and that is cause for subsidence of the coastal areas particularly in the deltaic areas of Badin and Thatta Districts that were part of the Indus delta; in Bangladesh which is on the Ganges-Brahamputra delta and at Louisina, in fact in deltaic regions in the above latitudes all over the world.

The observed sea level rise is perhaps more due to land subsidence/submergence than rise in sea level due to expansion of volume of the sea.

Sorry Dr. Mirza, I haven't supported your thesis or theory but in fact I rejected it -- read carefully my observations. So far there is no impact of human activity on general circulation. Localised factors are different. Even IPCC in the beginning of this year changed their argument and said 50 : 50 % chances. Please do research but don't misguide the rulers.

The fact of the matter is that the human impact on precipitation is, according to my thesis, associated both with 1) global warming resulting from anthropogenic greenhouse gases that necessarily includes water vapour; and 2) ecological changes brought about by excessive deforestation that has caused expansion of the heat zone that drives the monsoon engine. I reiterate that the human intervention should be considered as the cause and effect of both components.

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