Friday, April 5, 2013

And Then There Were Four

The chaos known as the NCAA
tournament began with sixty-five teams vying for their shot at
immortality. Visions and goals were different for each team. Whether it
was trying to win a national championship, or a Cinderella making an
unbelievable run, teams set out to make the most of playing on the
national stage. At first there were so many possibilities but now it has
come down to this years Final Four: Louisville, Wichita State, Michigan
and Syracuse. I'll make my picks and analyze each match-up, as well as
honor the number "4"with a unique series of awards.

Winners in bold as usual.

(9) Wichita St. 61 @ (1) Louisville 77

It's hard enough to get the Final Four one hundred percent correct
(thanks, Shockers) as at least one number one seed bows out early every
year. Yes I am looking at you, Mark Few and Gonzaga.

This year only one top seed still stands as one of the last four
teams: Louisville. Rick Pitino knows what he's doing when he recruits
high-character players and fits them into his ultra-successful system.
This is a team that made the Final Four as a plucky underdog in 2012,
and in one year they have transformed into the perennial favorite ever
since the latter part of the regular season. That previous year's
experience combined with a legendary coach, veteran leadership and a
gritty will to win is what has made them such a hot and trendy team to
pick as an eventual champion.

They are led by the guard tandem of senior Peyton Siva and junior
Russ Smith. We already knew how good Siva was his whole career, but this
tournament could easily be renamed "The Russ Smith Show". The junior
shooting guard broke out, averaging 25 points per game with all four of
his performances reaching 23 points or more. He is shooting an
astounding 84% from the charity stripe, so don't bother fouling him,
either.

Louisville has been rolling in the tournament, averaging 80 points
per game. This is a boost from the regular season where they averaged 74
points per game. Defensively they have been no slouch, either. They
have allowed 59 points per game, second only to Syracuse.

Against Duke, the game was 21-20 when guard Kevin Ware suffered a
devastating break of his leg after landing awkwardly. Most teams might
fold under such a ghastly sight, but not this Pitino-led Louisville
team. They were up 35-32 at the half and then tied at 42-42 in the
second half. They emotionally charged Cards went on a 17-2 tear and
effectively put a fork in the Blue Devils, beating them by 22 points.

On the flip side we have the Wichita State Shockers who are
essentially 2013's George Mason, albeit two seeds higher. They come in
to Saturday's game averaging a respectable 72.8 points per game in the
tourney and allow 62.8. I doubt their defense will slow down the freight
train known as the Cardinals offense. If they want to keep up
offensively with the Cardinals, guard Malcolm Armstead is going to have
to really improve on his shooting. Through four games he has made 21 of
59 attempts which amounts to a dismal 35% from the field. His efficiency
comes from the free throw line where he's shot 90%.

The Shockers surprised the nation on route to an upset of the
high-powered Gonzaga Bulldogs and then were in firm control of a potent
Ohio State offense led by Aaron Craft which really surprised me. While
their defense has definitely shown up this March, I think the Cardinals
will overload it and outrun Wichita State on their way to the
championship game in Atlanta.

One last thing....I propose a rule that no one can use "shock" in any
fashion to describe the run of Wichita State. It's called synonyms
people: surprise, upset, jolt, awe, jar, stupify, astonish. See? Not
hard.

(4) Michigan 54 @ (4) Syracuse 66

The story of this game will be Michigan's lights out offense versus
Syracuse's suffocating defense. Both teams had their doubters and not
many people had either pegged to win their regions.

Michigan was powered by guards Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. in the
regular season, but they have gotten help from their teammates as well
during their most recent run. The duo account for less than half of
their team's offense (36 %) in March. Burke shot 46% on the season but
ever since the tournament began, he has yet to crack 40% from the field.
His play can be electric but erratic.

Within the last four games help has come in the form of guard Mitch
McGary. The 6'10 forward has averaged 17.5 points in March, up from 7.4
in the regular season. His minutes have increased 37% from 19 to 29.8
minutes per game. That goes to show if given the chance, McGary will
shine.

6'6 guard Nik Stauskas will try and give the Orange defense all they
can handle with his premiere three-point shooting (44%), but Syracuse
has shown they can step out on the deep ball.

Quick- what team scored the biggest blow-out in tournament history
(47 points) during the shot clock era? If you guessed the Syracuse
Orange, you are right. You know, the team who is last in scoring out of
the four remaining teams (66 points per game).

The Syracuse team that had a 4-7 stretch from February to March has
been replaced by a hungrier, more aggressive one that has stifled
offenses. The Orange should be renamed the Pillows for how well they
smother opposing offenses. Their 2-3 zone is so unique and effective,
especially for a Big 10 team like Michigan that has not played against
that defensive style often. Big East teams would likely have the best
success against the 'Cuse, but even Marquette looked like middle-school
players last weekend. They only give up 50 points per game during their
run to Atlanta and allow teams to shoot a staggeringly low fifteen percent from
beyond the arc. No, not fifty.....FIFTEEN PERCENT. Their defense gives
offenses fits, pressuring the ball at all times and forcing bad
decisions which lead into turnovers and fast break points in transition.

Another factor that favors The Boeheim Bunch is their size and
length. I feel like I have repeated that over and over the last few
weeks....well, because I have. CJ Fair and James Southerland are both
6'8 while Baye Keita patrols the middle at 6'10. He'll have to deal with
McGary in the middle, an intriguing match-up. Burke might as well be
buying Michael Carter-Williams Subway. He is at a severe disadvantage,
giving up six inches to the Orange point guard. If Beilein is smart,
he'll put the 6'6 Hardaway on Carter-Williams and have Burke guard 6'4
Brandon Triche. But hey, what do I know?

The smart thing for Beilein and company to do is learn from Indiana's
mistakes and plan for Syracuse accordingly. I highly doubt the
Michigan offense will come anywhere close to the 79 points per game they
have been putting up so far in four games. They won't get as many good
looks against an active defense that jumps in front of picks and stays
glued to their man. Southerland has been a rock for Syracuse and
Carter-Williams will look to keep his hot streak up as well. The 2-3
zone will due what is designed to do: force turnovers, low field goal
percentages and generally frustrate the Wolverine leading to Boeheim's
second championship visit in a decade.

National Championship:(4) Syracuse 68 vs. (1) Louisville 77

As much as I'd love to sit here as a fan of the Orange and tell you they will crush the Cardinals and are like, totally THE BEST EVER...I tend to be a realist about things.

The match-up certainly intrigues me as it's this season's most
consistent, dangerous offense (Louisville) versus the most effective,
mind-numbingly agitating defense (Syracuse). It's two teams that love to
get out and run the floor for easy lay-ups off turnovers. It'd be a
fitting way to end the season and the Big East Conference.

Two coaching behemoths in Pitino and Boeheim one more time for all
the marbles. This would be a rematch of the Big East Tournament final
which saw the Cards down 13 at the half and storm back in the second
half, outscoring 'Cuse 56-26. You never want to look more than one game
ahead as a team, but Syracuse has to have had the thought planted in
their minds on revenge. The way the Cards have remained so composed
under the adversity they have faced this season, I would favor them in
the title game.

And finally, I shall honor the number 4.

Best Players Remaining1. Russ Smith - An NBA-ready junior, although undersized, plays way bigger than his 6'1 height.2. Trey Burke - Trigger happy, but when he's hot he can be unstoppable.3. Peyton Siva - A true veteran floor leader who kept his team together against Duke.4. Michael Carter-Williams - Has the size, handles, crafty defense and diverse offensive game that makes guarding him a nightmare.

X-Factors1. James Southerland - Three point range is uncanny. His height allows for good looks against the best defenders.2. Tim Hardaway, Jr. - Will need better shot selection like his partner, Burke, but will definitely have an effect on the outcome of the game.3. CJ Fair - Sweetest shooting form of any player in the tournament and has all the tools.4. Mitch McGary - Has stepped up when it matters and will make up for the poor shooting of Burke.

Coaches (in order of most entertaining to least)1. Jim Boeheim - His interaction with refs is the theater inside the game. I love his sarcasm.2. Rick Pitino - Always seems in control (aside from the Ware situation). Truly a legend.3. Gregg "I'm Just Happy To Be Here"Marshall - Ten bucks says the usher checks to see if he has a ticket stub, to which he'd reply, "I'm the head coach."
4.5. John Beilein - Get some charisma, dude.

He may not be playing, but God Bless the kid for his grittiness
through tough times. Was it Pitino who rallied the team and reassured
all of them it would be ok? No, it was the kid with the bone six inches
out of his leg that said, "Just win the game, don't worry about me."
Absolutely amazing.

All-Time Best College Player To Call a Time-Out That His Team Didn't Have In A National Title Game#4 Chris Webber

The end of the season is almost here and each school looking to win
the title. Whether it's a long shot (Wichita State) or an assumed
contender (Louisville), all four teams have proven themselves to get to
this point and look to cement their season in history as this year's
champion. As former NFL player Bart Scott once said, "Can't wait."