My opponent is doing fine with his submarines. The waters between Truk, the Solomons and Australia are very dangerous, and I am losing about two ships per week to torpedoes. Today, it was a minelayer, CM Takashima.I have increased ASW patrols, and am detecting more enemy boats, but I need to ramp up sub chasers.

I am seeing lots of patrols over the Bismarck and Solomons sea. Lunga was overflown on several occasions, and I am pretty sure this is where my opponent intends to land (if it were deception, I would see recon planes over other bases, the one he wants to invest, and others, for smoke screen purpose). I am not ready to face an early invasion there, but then, I don’t think my opponent will rush. More about this later…

Lightnings over Magwe

Over Magwe, we exchanged two Oscars 1b for two P-38E Lightning. This is rare enough to be worth mentioning.

The replay is fantastic: with no airborne planes, and an interception time three time as large as the detection time, nothing should have taken place. Besides, scrambling to ten thousand feet while the enemy was sweeping from 36 000 should have either made combat impossible (not that there were thunderstorms), or given the P40, which outnumbered the Oscars by a three to one ratio, an obscene advantage.

I understand this is but one case, and criticizing the air model is a deadly sin, but this looks very strange.

Enemy AV is close to 6000 now. I am repairing squads fast, but I doubt I can get better than 2:3 raw AV ratio in the near future.

Planning and stuff

I have spent most of the day today trying to organize and plan the next phase, but achieved very little. I really need to formulate an overall plan, and define a number of doctrines for the end of 1942. Without those, trying to list tasks, bases, units, is both a pain and a waste of time.

So, to begin with, here is a strategic overview.

In the Pacific and Indian Ocean, I hold “all the easy stuff”, aka the historical perimeter, that is, moving clockwise, the Kuriles, Wake, the Gilberts, the Solomons, Northern New Guinea (Port Moresby, Buna, and the southern tip islands are enemy held), Timor, Java, Sumatra and Burma (Port Blair and the Andamans are Allied).

Expansion is pretty much over. I have a dozen bases or so to mop up (three in Timor, maybe the Andamans except Port Blair, six in the Gilberts, a few more in the south pacific), but none of them should prove difficult. I don’t intend to invade Australia, move deeper into the Pacific or attack Ceylon.

Indian Ocean:

At present, the situation in the Indian Ocean is stabilized : Port Blair is suppressed from the air, and no enemy units have been seen near Burma. A few bombers are seen over Magwe and Rangoon, but they are not escorted, and fail to do much damage. Enemy fighters are nowhere in sight. I know some of them withdraw at the beginning of June. The rest might be recovering in India after the losses over Port Blair, or, they might have been transferred to another theater (Australia). Sumatra and Java have been safe since they were captured. Several attempts to raid the oilfields were called off after enemy carriers were detected.

The only active area is Timor, where a low intensity war against enemy bases in north Australia is developing. I am sweeping their fighters and bombarding their bases from the sea. Mitchells and Banshees based in this area have proven to be efficient against my shipping.

Overall this area is quiet, and I don’t think the enemy will try a move against Timor or Ambon, as they are already fighting in New Guinea, and seem to be preparing for the Solomons. They will certainly move against Burma, though.

Pacific:

In the North, the Kuriles are being reinforced. The Allies have garrisoned the Aleutians, but there are no signs of a buildup against the Kuriles. A carrier raid against the home island aborted after it was detected. This seems like a trait of my opponent : he doesn’t like to attack once his forces are spotted. This means a good naval search umbrella is my best defense. Central pacific is very calm. I am very weak there, and need to reinforce those islands. Again, search planes are my best friends there.

The South Pacific is the active theater. My opponent kept Port Moresby, has been capturing Buna, and is now marching north, through the jungle, to Salamaua. I am reinforcing this area, and expect to stop him between Wau and Nadzab if he tries to be too bold, but I am welcoming this battle in the jungle, as this means a very slow tempo.

Meanwhile, the enemy has been reconning Lunga on several occasions. I am expecting an attack there at some point, but probably not soon, as the New Hebrides are not built.

China:

This is the most active area. We have captured and cleared of enemy forces the northern half of the country, and most of the eastern coast. The KMT holds five bases : Changsha and Chungking, both under siege, and three southern bases (Kweilin, Liuchow and Tuyun). The annihilation of the KMT is our main strategic objective for 1942. I believe it is feasible before the end of the year.

My strategic plan for the end of year is relatively straightforward. I want to finish China and move in support of Burma, shifting troops there to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific, where I intend to fight a delaying action, and try to force the enemy into a long march northwards, from Port Moresby and Guadalcanal. So far, my opponent seems to be accepting this and is concentrating his forces in the south pacific.

At the end of the year, once China falls and Burma is reinforced, I should have enough troops to fight the Allied advance in the Pacific and create problems in Burma. But in the meantime, I need to reinforce my front lines, to discourage any other path for reconquest (Central Pacific, Kuriles, Timor…), and to keep the enemy from breaking through (South Pacific and Burma).

The replay is fantastic: with no airborne planes, and an interception time three time as large as the detection time, nothing should have taken place. Besides, scrambling to ten thousand feet while the enemy was sweeping from 36 000 should have either made combat impossible (not that there were thunderstorms), or given the P40, which outnumbered the Oscars by a three to one ratio, an obscene advantage.

I understand this is but one case, and criticizing the air model is a deadly sin, but this looks very strange.

Francois, LoBaron is the best to explain this, but your interpretation of the data above is not quite accurate. Here is my stab:

35 minutes is the time for all 21 planes to respond.

Your planes are NOT outnumbered, but rather have a lsight advantage on the P38's.

The 7 on standby would get there MUCH faster.

Your planes are not climbing to 10K, they are climbing to meet the sweep at +30K.

Sweep does not mean they just fly overhead and in 10 minutes they have come and gone. They have loiter time over sweep target. They might be sweeping over target for +20 minutes. Depends upon range to target and range of the sweepers.

I think you cut off part of the report, but likely not all 19 P38 swept ... a % won't make it to target (usually at bottom of report segment). This means you had better numerical advantage.

If your planes can't get to altitude prior to the sweep arriving, it means that the sweep will get the initial bounce. Nothing more though. After that, normal combat ensues. We can't know where the actual combat took place (30K?, 20?, 10k?). In this engagement it appears the iniital bounce failed for the sweepers and your Oscars did what they do best: win in a furball.

Anyway, this is a stab at the interpretation. If LoB gets a chance to stop by and you post the entire combat report segment he can interpret much better than I can. But, there really isn't anything strange here. Really. Looks good for you, not so good for your opponent, well within realistic parameters.

Criticism of the AC model isn't a problem, it's just that interpretting it with what we get in the combat report is REALLY hard. The replay is the best, but none of that text is captured for review. So, like this episode above, you have to read the report very carefully. Don't read it in english. Read it in special AC Model text. Each line/sentence refers to a specific outcome component in the model. You have to interpret each line carefully to get that outcome, not read it as english text. Not sure if that makes sense or not, but best I can do.

EDIT: Let me try to clarify with an analogy from teaching. I teach graduate Marketing. One of the concepts we review is SWOT. If you have a business background, you know that this is an analytic tool and the name SWOT is an acronym of the 4 components (Strength,Weakness,Oppotunity,Threat). Yeah, well the hard part is that those same 4 element names are themselves only nmemonics for the 4 components. Strength does not mean "strength" of your subject. No, it means "postive influence of an internally controlled variable". This throws a lot of students and they invariably do their SWOT analyses wrong.

Now, same thing here with the AC Model. Each line in the combat report cannot be read literally. It doesn't work that way. Each line is an outcome of the Model and chosen from a look list to indicate that outcomes result and then FOW is overlaid on top. So here some interpretations:

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Yeah, this means weather, but it also means that the attack isn't likely to coordinated over target. So you're not facing 1x19 P38E, but more likely 6x3 P38E and I bet several never made it.

Raid spotted at 47 NM, estimated altitude 36,000 feet.

We know a lot of FOW here. All you can say is high and not too far out. In conjunction with the first line because that also means your radar is degraded a lot and IJ radar isn't good to begin with ...

Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

WAG. But it does mean they will get the initial bounce. It also means that the real fight is likely to be a lower altitudes (prolly a LOT lower), they will be diving to your planes.

Thanks a lot, Pax, this makes a lot more sense now. It is a bit terrifying, too, as it suggests more work to make the air attacks work better. Your point on SWOT is well taken, I teach media once a year in a University here, and feel exactly the same when I talk about audience, or exposure, or target.

I have less work these days. As a result, the game is progressing fast. Unfortunately, this AAR is lagging behind, ten days behind, today. Since the game was quite uneventful, I am skipping a week of game time…

June 22th, 1942

Chungking and around

The enemy tried to sortie from Chungking. I hold all hexsides, save those on the east, and south east, along the river. With the forts still at level four, I don’t want to risk a shock attack and a river crossing. On the 18th, four Chinese corps, two of them at “full reborn strength” (250 AV apiece) crossed the river into the plain east of the city. My tanks intervened the next day,

I am not sure I understand the purpose of all this. Out of Chungking, cut off from their bases, those units have no chance of ever being supplied, and this makes them practice targets for my bombers and my tanks. The enemy sortie delayed my next attack on Chungking. My troops there were ready since the 20th, but I wanted to clear the neighboring hex before.

This was less costly than the previous one, and Chinese disablements are mounting. As usual, my infantry is trashed, but they will recover in a week or two. Enemy AV are stabilized around 6000, partly because there are probably no zombies left in the reinforcement queue. I am curious to see whether the lower fort levels translate into heavier losses from air and ground bombardment. I am quite satisfied with the situation in Chungking. It is taking longer than I expected, but we are making progress, and a victory by the end of Summer look like a possibility.

Lunga and the Solomons

For two days, a bombardment task force was detected south of Lunga, apparently standing idle. I had a surface force in the area, one battleship, three cruisers and a handful of destroyers, but sighting reports mentioned several enemy battleships, and I didn’t want to take chances.

So, my surface force fell back, and joined with another squadron. Reinforcements to the Solomons were delayed, and we waited for the Allies to come and bombard.

They bombarded today, with BB Mississippi and New Mexico, and CL Boise, which I thought I had sunk near Balikpapan in February. Damage to my units in Lunga was relatively low, and reinforcements are on their way again.

It seems very clear to me that my opponent plans to invade Lunga at some point. I am going to reinforce the place, but I am also keeping a large surface force, disbanded in a nearby base, ready to jump on enemy transports. If my opponent rushes, my strategy would be to let the Allies get ashore, but sink them as they unload, leaving a light force on the island, that can then be defeated in detail.

New Guinea

The troops retreated from Buna are now safe in Salamaua. I have more than 100 AV there, and am air transporting more. I believe I can block the enemy advance there. Over Lae, the Allies tried to sink a unloading cargo, and lost a lot of bombers in the process.

It now seems very clear that my opponent will launch his offensive in New Guinea and the Solomons. This suits me fine.

Planning and stuff, part 2, enemy intentions, and my plans for the end of 1942

Enemy intentions are getting clearer. Port Moresby is being reinforced, and I expect a land campaign in New Guinea, now targeting Salamaua, and possibly Terapo. This seems to be handled by Australian and New Zealand units. So far, I have not seen any US ground forces in New Guinea.

In the Solomons, Lunga has been overflown and lot, and bombarded today. Luganville is being developed. I expect an invasion of Ndeni (I have a token force there) soon, and a serious assault on Lunga, and probably Tulagi as well, at a later point.

On the other hand, there is little activity in the DEI, around Timor, or in Burma. I am reinforcing my bases there, and in the Pacific Ocean (in Tarawa, notably).

I am pretty sure the hammer will fall in the Solomons and New Guinea. I am happy with this, the Allies begin early, but they follow a long, historical, and methodical path, which gives me the time to finish China and move troops around.

In New Guinea, I am expecting assaults against Salamaua and Terapo in the beginning of July. I don’t know whether I can hold those bases, but I am certain I can launch a counterattack. The 38th infantry division is on its way to Wau, and another division and two regiment from the Philippines will join then soon. I intend to let the Allies advance, and defeat them once they are far from their bases, and difficult to supply. I believe the invasion of Lunga will happen later in July, mid-July probably. My goal is to break it before it lands, or as it disembarks.

In both cases, the message I want to deliver to my opponent is that he needs to take his time. I need the time to finish China…

Life out of the war

While reading the “need new game” thread, I was wondering whether I wanted to play another wargame, solitaire this time. I have been considering for a while playing Guadalcanal, to prepare for the worst, but having a second game of AE seems a bit too much. In terms of computer wargames, I own War in the East, which, I’m told, works fine against the AI, but I am a bit afraid by the sheer size of the manual, and I am not sure I am interested enough in the Russian campaign to enjoy it. I could buy another game, thanks to the current matrix sale, I am open to suggestions.

Or… maybe I could turn to classical board wargames. I have a good collection of games about the Pacific war. With the battle in Lunga coming soon, I was looking again at Victory Game: Tokyo Express, and GMT Operation Shoestring. I also have Matanikau, from the Gamers, which explores Guadalcanal at a much lower scale. Do others play board wargames as companions to their computer wars?

In other news, I received yesterday a new copy of a math book I really like and intend to read from cover to cover. I was trained in mathematics, and still love the topic after all these years. Recently, I have been playing with project Euler challenges (other math fanboys here would probably know this), and thought it would be the perfect time to try to get a decent understanding of number theory.

So, I ordered, and received “an introduction to the theory of numbers”, by Hardy and Wright. This book was published in 1938, and reedited avec since (the current editor is Andrew Wiles, the mathematician who solved the last Fermat theorem). This is my second copy of this book, I lost the first one long ago, but have fond memories of the many “practical” problems it addresses. Hardy and Wright, together with Foundation of Mathematics, by Haskell Curry, have been on my list of books I want to read and understand while I still can.

While reading the “need new game” thread, I was wondering whether I wanted to play another wargame, solitaire this time. I have been considering for a while playing Guadalcanal, to prepare for the worst, but having a second game of AE seems a bit too much. In terms of computer wargames, I own War in the East, which, I’m told, works fine against the AI, but I am a bit afraid by the sheer size of the manual, and I am not sure I am interested enough in the Russian campaign to enjoy it. I could buy another game, thanks to the current matrix sale, I am open to suggestions.

One interesting thing to do if you're just playing solo is to run scenarios or even a grand campaign as a 'test' for things in your own game. Since a battleship damage issue Jocke and I had I've had a test game going. I'm learning all kinds of things from it. It really is good to practice certain aspects, or to test things more systematically bu tin the framework of a complete game. I had one in 43 so I just started from that. The only drawback was that I had trashed the AI so badly I can't test any CV battles because the Allies have no CVs! Anyway, a fun option.

I can't imagine playing another war-game due to the time commitment, but I do play some chess and some hearts (card game) on my phone heading to work when I don't feel like reading the paper. I can usually finish a game of either during the commute which is satisfying and keeps my head involved in them to an extent in case I find myself playing a human opponent.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

I like the Total War, Combat Mission and Hearts of Iron series of computer games for solo play. I don't know if you are familiar with any or all of them Francois.

I like the Total War series, especially the Medieval and Shogun games. I just like the entire era and playing on a strategic map with the ability to control the tactical battles. Probably one of my all time favourite games to play.

I enjoy Hearts of Iron series because you can play almost any country you desire and has a lot going on and somewhat comparable to WitPAE in scope, just not as much detail tactically.

If you like tactical World War II combat I really like the Combat Mission series. It's like playing Avalon Hill's Squad Leader boardgame on the PC. One of my favourites. Graphics are so-so, but it's the gameplay I enjoy.

There are many others I have played or want to. If you are interested in some others I enjoy just drop me a PM.

11 troops of a AIF Inf Section 42 lost overboard during unload of 16th Australian Bde /3

So we know what we are against, a brigade, or about 150 AV. Well, they are at half strength now, in the jungle, with mosquitoes and stuff, so we might actually hold for longer than expected. I suspect preparation was not as high as it should.

During the day, Nells and Betties from Rabaul attacked the enemy ships. We only had a few planes on patrol, and the enemy had a lot on CAP, but some Nells and Betties passed through…

Morning Air attack on TF, near Terapo at 96,127 Weather in hex: Clear sky Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

CL Dragon was nowhere to be seen, and the heavy damage on CL Sumatra was confirmed. Both are reported sunk. Dragon is confirmed in the operations report, Sumatra is certainly in bad shape.

We are in for another round tomorrow. All the Betties and Nells I could muster are in Rabaul, where torpedoes have been stockpiled, all fighters will escort and sweep, let us see how much damage we can do. In Truk, Kido Butai was ordered to Madang, just in time to catch a second wave.

Overall, I am quite happy with this enemy move. I need all the practice I can find, to fend off enemy invasions, and this one, not really dangerous, is the perfect training material. All of this confirms my opponent is focused on the South Pacific. Of course, June 1942 is a bit early to be challenged there, but hey, I’m a newbie, and I’m supposed to be an easy target.

Surprise in the Andamans

Yesterday, a submarine patrolling off Little Andama Blair damaged a light cargo that probably was trying to supply Port Blair. As other ships were detected, a small surface force was sent to investigate.

Much to our surprise, the enemy had a cruiser squadron, around CL Mauritius and Newcastle. With CL Sendai and Kitakami, the match was even.

We didn’t achieve surprise, but managed to cross their T and sink the Newcastle at the beginning of the engagement, but lost Kitakami as we tried to withdraw.

Twelve destroyed squads is close to a personal record. I am having a good feeling about the battle for Chungking.

More planning and stuff, mines

I have seen, in Surabaya, how much damage a minefield can cause on a bombardment force. As such, I want to deploy mines in some of my forward bases. As I don’t have so many mines, and minelayers, I want to tend the minefields, and have ACM in those ports, and some in second line hubs, to replace the tenders that might be sunk.

Minefields come in packs of 150 mines. This is the number and ACM can handle. How many of those should be deployed in a port? Right now, I am planning to start with 150 per port, but I might have a few with a lot more mines.

Where do I want mines? I don’t think minefields can prevent invasions. By the time you land, you will have sent sweepers. On the other hand, they can do a lot of damage to bombardment forces, and sweepers. Right now, I am planning to lay mines in the Kuriles, in the Solomons, and on the coast of Sumatra. I believe I would rather have a few strong minefields (say 300 or 450) than many smaller ones.

Wargames

Thanks, Erik and Joseph, for the suggestions. Joseph, I do know Total War, but never really was attracted to computer wargames. AE is an exception, to me, because it is more like a computer-assisted boardgame than a typical computer wargame. Thinking about it, I will probably not look at War in the East, because it would take too much time.

Starting another AE game against the AI is an interesting possibility. I am a bit afraid about the first turns, and the six month lag between this game and the AI one. Maybe I should play 2 day turns (or three, even), so that the AI game moves at a faster pace. Or perhaps, play the Allies so that I can train in defense by playing the six first months of the game?

What game parameters and scenarios would you use? As Japan, I would probably go for scenario one, as the Allies scen 2, or ironman? Or Babes? My goal would not be to use the AI game as a companion to this one, but more as a learning tool, a CPX, if you like.

I am seriously considering playing board wargames again. Currently, I spent three evenings out of home every week, working in Paris. My old game collection is there, and I can probably find a couple of games that can be played over an evening or two. I will report on those, in case anyone is interested.

After the landings yesterday, and two enemy cruisers reported sunk off Terapo, we sent more bombers against Terapo today.

In the morning, my bombers flew unescorted. I had several fighter squadrons, from the same base, at the same altitude, on escort duty, but the bombers flew alone. As expected it was costly, but we did manage to put a torpedo into AP Henderson.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Terapo at 96,127 Weather in hex: Overcast Raid detected at 40 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 15 minutes

In the afternoon, our bombers flew under escort, but no damage was done to enemy ships. Overall, we lost about 20 planes, bombers, mostly, to a handful of enemy fighters. We will be back tomorrow, but this is expensive.

Luganville

The large battleship squadron that cruised near the Solomons was ordered to bombard Luganville. It turns out that the area is pretty busy. In the morning, we found a small cruiser squadron

Day Time Surface Combat, near Luganville at 120,150, Range 26,000 Yards

This confirms enemy intentions. The buildup for a move against the Solomons is underway.

His Majesty’s Big Ships around Timor

In the Indian Ocean, a destroyer squadron retiring from a bombardment mission on Broome was attacked today by swordfishes, and albacores, of all things! A swordfish was shot down, no damage was done.

British carriers, probably two or three of them, have been spotted 250 miles southwest of Koepang. They might have come a-raiding, but we will be waiting for them. I have Kates and Betties, and fighters, if they get nearer, the Perfidious Albion might regret her move.

But if previous enemy actions are to be trusted, my opponent might just retreat after being detected. I would rather have the carriers, but I am fine with one more aborted raid in the Indian Ocean.

Today, we had the auditors, at work, and I was asked about prospects in five years (I get asked that because I’m the younger one among the shareholders, and in five years, all the others will be enjoying their fat retirement pensions, while I’m stuck with the darn accounts, code lines and things). I was very tempted to explain that I expected to be still fighting, in the ruins of my battered empire. In fact, at the current rate of play, we should play a year in 16 months, which means, we should be in late 1945 in about five years.

… But that wasn’t their point, business people, you know. And so I gave a boring but more predictable answer…

June 25th 1942 While listening to Bruckner’s 2nd symphony, big music that somehow creates a very soothing ambience.

Ugly Terapo

For the third day, enemy ship unloaded troops in Terapo, and my bombers tried to sink them. But fatigue and better Allied patrols made this day a very bad one for the evil empire. Our escorts died in droves, and not a single bomber closed on enemy ships.

We lost more than 60 planes, today (to twenty bandits). There certainly is something I don’t do well with my planes. Well, you live, and learn, and lose planes… I am resting my squadrons tomorrow. I can’t afford such losses.

Enemy landings seem to be over. There is one unit in Terapo, an Australian brigade, probably half disabled. I only have 40 AV, behind light fortifications, but good defensive terrain and excellent morale and experience. Let us see what happens.

Further away, the 38th infantry division is closing on Wau, and more troops are now landing in Madang and Hansa bay. I believe I can turn those jungles into a quagmire, let the Aussies wad!

Meanwhile, BB Ise and Hyuga bombarded Horn Island, and found a squadron of Buffaloes, which won’t fly for a while, and three PT boats that should better have been somewhere else.

Verdun upon Yangtse

Our bombardment of Chungking is getting better and better. Today, the air bombardment disabled 40 combat and 56 support squads, and the land bombardment did :

That’s over 120 combat squads out of action, for several days, enemy AV have been decreasing, despite more zombies respawning.

This seems to be going in the right direction. It is a good thing: with the enemy counterattacking in New Guinea (in June 42, of all dates!) and my airplanes dying like worms in a hen coop, I need all the comfort I can find in Sichuan!

Supply, industry, and all those figures we JFB love so much

Having spent most of the day discussing cash flow, balance, and accounts (the one thing I love about auditors is that they only show up twice a year…), I am in the perfect mood to discuss the economy. So here’s.

The industry is still in frugal mode. We are saving 6800 HI points per day, and have 1.16 million points in the bank. Shipyards can still be reduced, as I have 88 merchant and 984 naval yards, and only need 70 and 888. I have 308 vehicle and 250 armament factories. Vehicle production is about right, with stocks oscillating between 5000 and 2500 as the big armored units in Manchuria get deployed. Armament is a bit too much: I have 23000 points in stock. The correct figures are probably around 300 and 200. Supply stocks are stable, around 5.18 million tons, close to starting levels. Fuel stocks are up five thousand tons a day. Resource levels are stable in the home islands, and supply seems to be flowing nicely in China.

Overall, the economy is fine. I am still having difficulty to get fuel, oil and resources to flow out of Singapore. I am building Port Arthur in the hope that it will help drawing oil and fuel, and will experiment with stockpiling.

Ungamely affairs

I am still looking for companion games to play with AE. Yesterday, I took advantage of the matrix Christmas sale, and bought Eagles day to Bombing the Reich. So here you have the characteristic GG not quite friendly interface, but an interesting and detailed game. I will most certainly look into it, even though there is something weird in “playing” bombing your hometown or similar areas… I do understand it is all about history, but it doesn’t make it less weird.

On the board gaming front, I went through the pacific wargames I have, but none of them really caught my attention. I am reading the rules of VG 2nd Fleet and Omaha Beach. Both seem relatively simple, and easy to play. In the more involved category, I had a serious look at VG’s Vietnam.

I am still looking for companion games to play with AE. Yesterday, I took advantage of the matrix Christmas sale, and bought Eagles day to Bombing the Reich. So here you have the characteristic GG not quite friendly interface, but an interesting and detailed game. I will most certainly look into it...

I've been interested in this game as well Francois. Let me know what you think once you get your teeth into it.

For Singapore I could not get the fuel or oil to travel up. If you're basing ships there it's tough as well because the AI wants to keep the fuel. I just started shipping the old fashioned way after a while.

Many players seem to get armaments to around 100k (!!) anticipating the influx of troops in 44-45. It also seems a good idea for buying back destroyed units and rebuilding them. I've turned more armaments on in late 43 to try to make sure i"m okay for next year.

At your rate of building HI though you could do this in 43 no problem. You're just about doubling my HI stores in respect to date of the game. I'm just reaching 2 mil in 10/43.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

Having spent most of the day discussing cash flow, balance, and accounts (the one thing I love about auditors is that they only show up twice a year…), I am in the perfect mood to discuss the economy. So here’s.

The industry is still in frugal mode. We are saving 6800 HI points per day, and have 1.16 million points in the bank. Shipyards can still be reduced, as I have 88 merchant and 984 naval yards, and only need 70 and 888. I have 308 vehicle and 250 armament factories. Vehicle production is about right, with stocks oscillating between 5000 and 2500 as the big armored units in Manchuria get deployed. Armament is a bit too much: I have 23000 points in stock. The correct figures are probably around 300 and 200. Supply stocks are stable, around 5.18 million tons, close to starting levels. Fuel stocks are up five thousand tons a day. Resource levels are stable in the home islands, and supply seems to be flowing nicely in China.

Overall, the economy is fine. I am still having difficulty to get fuel, oil and resources to flow out of Singapore. I am building Port Arthur in the hope that it will help drawing oil and fuel, and will experiment with stockpiling.

How can you save 6800 HI every day???? How many HI are you producing? ....man, i am losing 2000 supplies every day and barely saving 1500 HIs.....

I am producing 14 800 HI points every day, and saving about 6800 (a little less on the recent days, as one factory in Hokkaido lacks fuel). I can probably do a little better, 7 500 I think. I have been saving between 6000 and 8000 points every day since the beginning of the war.

In terms of expenses, I have greatly reduced the Merchant Shipyard (to 88 right now, probably down to 70 soon), and the naval shipyards. I did not accelerate anything and halted the big BBs, but produce all the rest (I might cut the 44-45 navy in due time). I have increased the vehicles (to 300), reduced the armaments (to 250), and increased the planes/engines. Roland, my air production might be low compared o greyjoy, but not that low. I do need to increase it, but keep in mind that the main savings are the shipyards, and especially the merchant shipyards, where all "non combattants" were cancelled.

This is pretty much the heart of my strategy. I had noticed that most of Japan's HI expenses are naval constructions, and my strategy for this game was to keep expenses as low as possible, to save HI, and keep naval ops to a minimum to save on fuel. This would make Japan less suceptible to Fortress Palembang or similar schemes, and let me avoid the "supply crunch" part of the war. Of course, this also meant I couldn't wage an offensive war in the pacific, hence the focus on China.

This strategy, of course, is very "insight-driven": I know I can't fight the Allied logistics, and I know I win by holding as long as I can. Hence, the idea of reducing my supply needs. But then, we all know history, and ruling out insight seems very strange.

We are now at the moment of reckoning. I believe China is doable, and that I can probably get reinforcements in Burma before the enemy can get there. In New Guinea, I am now paying the price for this continental strategy, with the allies on the offensive in mid 1942. I certainly could have done it better, but we sure are living in interesting times.

I believe the shipyards are about 350 too high, and the Armaments 150. ie, there is about 500 to save, that could either go into planes, or savings.

So far, my plane pools are pretty much empty, but my squadrons are mostly full, ie, I produce enough planes for my needs. I don't really want to save, since I am PDU off, and this easily leads to waste.

thx for the clarification Francois... still I believe that in comparison to Greyjoy (and many others) your air battles (atm at least) seem to be less intense in terms of air frame losses (except for maybe the last few reports) - which is why your limited production is fine... of course PDU Off makes a huge difference here....

and don't get me wrong here - I have the utmost respect for your understanding of the economy and everything else.. I am just wondering whether your approach to war - "saving what you can right now for later" - keeps the balance with "I might need more for the fight right now"... just thinking it wouldn't be cool to have a reserve of 3 Mio HI points with the Allies sitting in Tokyo :D

I don't know your opponent at all - but at some stage the Allied onslaught becomes overwhelming and if you start increasing your production then you are too late... ;)

ORIGINAL: MAurelius thx for the clarification Francois... still I believe that in comparison to Greyjoy (and many others) your air battles (atm at least) seem to be less intense in terms of air frame losses (except for maybe the last few reports) - which is why your limited production is fine... of course PDU Off makes a huge difference here....

Hmm, now you got me wondering... Here are our plane losses so far (end of June 1942): allies 2586, japan 2870. I will have a look at other AAR for terms of comparison, but I'm interested in figures from other games.

But you are quite right that I have a problem concentrating my air force. We made a difference in Port Blair once I had enough squadrons (active and resting) in the area. Same goes in China. I am far from this in Rabaul, or Koepang, and this is probably why I am not achieving much against enemy counterattacks.

quote:

ORIGINAL: MAurelius. just thinking it wouldn't be cool to have a reserve of 3 Mio HI points with the Allies sitting in Tokyo :D

Another very good point. Before the game began, I had Palembang Fortress in mind when I defined this strategy. Basically, I wanted some plan which could survive strong resistance in the DEI, or even major destruction of the oilfields upon capture. Hence the low fuel profile, and the heavy HI savings.

But this didn't happen : I took most of the oil installations in good shape, and even the oilfields and refineries in Burma weren't bombed (yet). As a result, the economy is surprisingly fine, and I could spend a little more. Spend to buy what? I don't think I need all those cargoes, and I still havent't canceled many naval programs. The obvious answer is the air force, which I probably can concentrate a lot more, and use a lot better...

This said keep in mind we're in scenario 2, where pilot training costs become quite heavy as the war progresses. I am sending all the pilots I can to TRACOM, in the hope of reducing this, but I'm afraid a lot of my HI will go down the training drain, at some point.

For Singapore I could not get the fuel or oil to travel up. If you're basing ships there it's tough as well because the AI wants to keep the fuel. I just started shipping the old fashioned way after a while.

I've been tracking fuel, oil and resource levels at major ports since taking Singapore, granted it's only been a few weeks, but so far resources are trickling into Singapore and fuel levels remain low. I have not drawn any fuel, oil or resources from Singapore. I've been drawing from Saigon, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Keijo and Fusan from day one to see if I can replicate what Pax is able to achieve in his AI game. I'll be recording these levels daily and will post numbers once I have more data collected. Hopefully the numbers will indicate the trend over time.

I don't think you'll need all that much shipping as well... as you are someone who prefers the short-hop-convoys vs ppl who load stuff at Singers and then move it to Japan... hence your prudent choice to stop most merchant shipping...

I am just thinking you might be able to use some of your HI to increase your superiority in planes.... the HI cost for pilots will be high either way - but if you have the planes to put those pilots to good use too..... you might just make life a little harder for the Allies... have 1000 planes attack you in 44 scares everyone - even if someone has 12 CVs or more at his disposal :D

June 26th 1942The music for today is Brahms string quintet op111, an exhilarating piece if there ever was one

And there was evening, and there was morning, and there was Kido Butai

From Truk, KB had been ordered to the coast of New Guinea between Hansa Bay and Madang, off the reach of most bombers based in Rabaul. She arrived today morning and launched four raids against the task forces unloading in Terapo, which all went through, despite heavy losses.

Morning Air attack on TF, near Terapo at 96,127 Weather in hex: Overcast Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

CL Phoenix, xAP Taroona, DE Humphreys, and DD Monssen (must be FOW for Tjerk Hiddes) are reported sunk, but xAP Zelandia and Marella must be in very bad shape, and AP Monroe was seen burning (and was already hit a few days ago).

This came at a price, as KB was fighting at long range. The reports say we lost twenty planes to nine enemy fighters, but the real figures are about twice as many. Still, a Brooklyn class cruiser, a pair of tin cans, and, possibly, three troop transports look like a good trade. And the landings in Terapo were probably quite disrupted, which always is a good thing.

KB wasn’t attacked in return. I suspect we were too far away for short legged bombers, and the long range ones might have been off duty as my opponent sent his fighters to protect the landings. We will now retire, and might turn south and pay a visit to Luganville, were a couple of ships were detected recently.

Building Lunga

In the Solomons, I have been preparing for the next enemy invasions. Tulagi and Lunga have engineers, decent forts, a naval guard unit and guns. An infantry regiment should land soon in Tassafaronga.

At sea, several submarines were deployed in front of the island, just in case, and the large battleship force that bombarded Luganville a few days ago was rearmed in Rekata bay (I am deploying AKE in dot bases close to the front), and is ready to jump on bombardment task forces that might be too bold. Finally, I have mined the harbor in Lunga, and disbanded an ACM in the port.

This paid off today, as SS S-45 came nosing around and hit a mine. Later, S-41 tried to meddle with my unloading cargo, and got hit by her escort.

I don’t intend to fight for Guadalcanal, but I think that such actions can delay enemy operation, which is exactly what I want.

Rude Britannia

Remember those British carriers off Timor? After being spotted two days ago, they went AWOL yesterday, and reappeared today. I still had torpedo bombers on naval attack in Koepang, but not enough, apparently. The first wave barely reached CV Illustrious and Formidable, and the second one didn’t even make it to the carriers, and we lost a dozen more bombers in the process.

The weather was very bad over Timor, and there were no attacks in the afternoon. No British bombers flew, either. Try again tomorrow. I have rotated bombers and fighters. If the British are still in range tomorrow, we will have a second shot at them.

I am curious to see what my opponent has in mind. Will the carriers try to sail east, towards Darwin and Horn Island, in which case I will probably have another shot at them? Or will they retire as they did several times in the past?

Plane production, big fat raids, and PDU off

I have been mulling Roland’s comments most of the evening, and realize that building a strong air force must be my priority now.

My short term options are relatively obvious. I will probably need two or three months to finish China, and then another month to reinforce Burma and the Pacific. By October or November 1942, I should have enough troops to reinforce the front, and stop any Allied advance. Until then, I need to delay, in New Guinea, in the Solomons, in Burma, and prevent a breakthrough.

I believe I can achieve this by concentrating my forces, using the KB and my naval assets to punish the enemy every time I can, but avoid engaging in bold moves. I am on the defensive for four months.

Then, I should have enough units to garrison the front, make allied advance very costly, and perhaps even launch an offensive into India. My goal is to build the large air force I need for such operations, in December 42, or January 43.

With PDU off, this means two things. First, I need to have a precise idea of my frame mix at the beginning of 1943, to organize production, upgrades, and the building of pools. Second, I need to grow the industry in such a way that repairs and upgrades to new models do not deplete my supplies, or slow production.

Just to give an example, by the end of 1942, my main Navy fighter should the A6M3a, which should be available in September. With PDU Off, I can have over 500 of those, and can convert those factories for free into A6M5, which should be available at the end of the year, and would concern over a thousand planes. So far so good.

However, the problem with this line is that the A6M3a upgrades from the A6M3, which is now in production, but only concerns a small number of squadrons (about 100 planes), and not from the A6M2, my current navy fighter.

At present, I am producing 25 A6M3 per month, and repairing 11 more factories, for a final production of 36. For the A6M3, this is the right number, but it won’t be enough for the A6M3a. As such, I probably need to expand, and repair many more A6M3 factories, so as to have a decent production level once the A6M3a comes online.

But then, my A6M2 will become obsolete (most of them upgrade into 3a), and the huge factories (that currently produce over 200 zeroes per month) will need to be converted into A6M3a outfits, ready to upgrade into A6M5. And the total conversion cost would be around 300 000 supply points, and take between three and four months, until the end of the year.

Same goes with army fighters. With PDU Off, the Tojo line is not a very interesting prospect, as you only have 78 planes that can convert into IIa, and 180 that upgrade into IIb (which you be available at the beginning of 43). The Tony line is not really better, as you can only get a hundred 1a, and 200 1b. With PDU off, you have to build Oscars: the upgrade is free from 1c to 2a and then 2b, I already produce 150 1c, and can upgrade up to a thousand IIb, which will be available by November. Compared with the Zeroes, new Oscars will come online very fast, as there is no need to repair factories.

All this means that in October, Oscars and “old Zeroes” will probably be my main duty fighters, with new zeroes appearing at the end of the year. I need to do the maths…

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon I've been drawing from Saigon, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Keijo and Fusan from day one to see if I can replicate what Pax is able to achieve in his AI game.

If you are drawing from all of them, then forget Fusan. You will never get the resources to flow from there with any rate that would count. To get Fusan to work, you have to commit to it from day one as a single strategy. You know by about 1Jan42 if it will work or not.

With where you are now, you might be able to get flow from Shanghai. Build it up as much as you can and do NOT build HK. Focus your shipments from Shanghai. You should be able to get things to flow from there. Shanghai has only 20 Resource compared to HK's 60, but it has good LI and HI factories. Meaning, the resource movement AI is already having to move resource there to keep those factories supplied.

I have been mulling Roland’s comments most of the evening, and realize that building a strong air force must be my priority now.

My short term options are relatively obvious. I will probably need two or three months to finish China, and then another month to reinforce Burma and the Pacific. By October or November 1942, I should have enough troops to reinforce the front, and stop any Allied advance. Until then, I need to delay, in New Guinea, in the Solomons, in Burma, and prevent a breakthrough.

I believe I can achieve this by concentrating my forces, using the KB and my naval assets to punish the enemy every time I can, but avoid engaging in bold moves. I am on the defensive for four months.

Then, I should have enough units to garrison the front, make allied advance very costly, and perhaps even launch an offensive into India. My goal is to build the large air force I need for such operations, in December 42, or January 43.

With PDU off, this means two things. First, I need to have a precise idea of my frame mix at the beginning of 1943, to organize production, upgrades, and the building of pools. Second, I need to grow the industry in such a way that repairs and upgrades to new models do not deplete my supplies, or slow production.

Just to give an example, by the end of 1942, my main Navy fighter should the A6M3a, which should be available in September. With PDU Off, I can have over 500 of those, and can convert those factories for free into A6M5, which should be available at the end of the year, and would concern over a thousand planes. So far so good.

However, the problem with this line is that the A6M3a upgrades from the A6M3, which is now in production, but only concerns a small number of squadrons (about 100 planes), and not from the A6M2, my current navy fighter.

At present, I am producing 25 A6M3 per month, and repairing 11 more factories, for a final production of 36. For the A6M3, this is the right number, but it won’t be enough for the A6M3a. As such, I probably need to expand, and repair many more A6M3 factories, so as to have a decent production level once the A6M3a comes online.

But then, my A6M2 will become obsolete (most of them upgrade into 3a), and the huge factories (that currently produce over 200 zeroes per month) will need to be converted into A6M3a outfits, ready to upgrade into A6M5. And the total conversion cost would be around 300 000 supply points, and take between three and four months, until the end of the year.

Same goes with army fighters. With PDU Off, the Tojo line is not a very interesting prospect, as you only have 78 planes that can convert into IIa, and 180 that upgrade into IIb (which you be available at the beginning of 43). The Tony line is not really better, as you can only get a hundred 1a, and 200 1b. With PDU off, you have to build Oscars: the upgrade is free from 1c to 2a and then 2b, I already produce 150 1c, and can upgrade up to a thousand IIb, which will be available by November. Compared with the Zeroes, new Oscars will come online very fast, as there is no need to repair factories.

All this means that in October, Oscars and “old Zeroes” will probably be my main duty fighters, with new zeroes appearing at the end of the year. I need to do the maths…

Yep, pretty much agrees with my calcs for a PDU OFF game. What you should also consider is looking at your groups ultimate upgrades ... tally all of those and then push the R&D of the major items.

A6M2 vs A6M3a. Ok, yes in my opinion the A6M3a is the best IJN fighter they get until the A7M series. However, the difference between the M2 and M3a is very slight except for range. And for CV's, given the hardcoded max strike range limit, there really isn't any difference. So, yes convert over your M2 factories to M3a, but you don't need to rush it ... you can take your time and minimize the production impact.

The A6M3a is great for range, but man, I lost so many to ops losses. I've mostly stopped using them due to their fragility compared to the A6M5. Still useful in HQ centers for escorting Netties, but otherwise not capable of doing much. Definitely not needed on CVs.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

Why is the A6M3a more fragile? I can't see it from the Tracker data, same service rating, same durability.The main advantage I see with the 3a is the maneuverability at high altitude, which is twice as much at that of the A6M2. But I am very curious about your observations.

The A6M3a is great for range, but man, I lost so many to ops losses. I've mostly stopped using them due to their fragility compared to the A6M5. Still useful in HQ centers for escorting Netties, but otherwise not capable of doing much. Definitely not needed on CVs.

Great example of differences that players see in their games. I'm sure play style accounts for most of this.

Me? I've never really seen any difference in Op's losses between the two. Yes, durability increases from 22 to 27, but with the speed the same (336, oh so slow) the loss of manouver from 34 to 24 for me just doesn't make up for better durability and armor. I lose the same number of pilots in battle. Do I move up the A6M path? Sure, but I have no rush to do so. My pilot/plane losses remain unchanged between the two planes, and in general increase sharply until I can get the A7M series in production.

SO, I need to go back to looking at my playing style and figure out if I can get better results from the a6M5 as obvert does ....

Why is the A6M3a more fragile? I can't see it from the Tracker data, same service rating, same durability.The main advantage I see with the 3a is the maneuverability at high altitude, which is twice as much at that of the A6M2. But I am very curious about your observations.

Francois

Basically just what Pax is saying, (except the speed is actually different, which I also think is the biggest factor against fighters, going to 350). The durability increases from 22-27. If I am going against Jocke's continually massed 4Es, this was crucial in late 42 through early 43. Even against 2nd generation fighters the 3a is more fragile and maneuver seems to add little for me anyway. At the time when I used the 3a most it was escorting long distances from mediocre fields as well. So now with a few groups using it in larger bases, with somewhat shorter distances, it might be better. I only have 2-3 groups still using it, and no more will be made. There are still 200+ in the pools. It might still be very useful with long escorting missions later in the game, but I will also have the Oscar for some of these with its armor.

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/29/2012 1:40:06 PM >

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

Why is the A6M3a more fragile? I can't see it from the Tracker data, same service rating, same durability.The main advantage I see with the 3a is the maneuverability at high altitude, which is twice as much at that of the A6M2. But I am very curious about your observations.

Francois

Basically just what Pax is saying, (except the speed is actually different, which I also think is the biggest factor against fighters, going to 350). The durability increases from 22-27. If I am going against Jocke's continually masses 4Es, this was crucial in late 42 through early 43. Even against 2nd generation fighters the 3a is more fragile and maneuver seems to add little for me anyway. At the time when I used the 3a most it was escorting long distances from mediocre fields as well. So now with a few groups using it in larger bases, with somewhat shorter distances, it might be better. I only have 2-3 groups still using it, and no more will be made. There are still 200+ in the pools. It might still be very useful with long escorting missions later in the game, but I will also have the Oscar for some of these with its armor.

At 15 hexes (the max distance of the A6M3a) attacking missions, however, achieve more or less nothing. 80% of the times the bombers don't find the target if in mid ocean... And i agree that the late-war oscars III are clearly a better choice for escorting missions on longe range. They have armour and they can get up to 14 hexes....and that's enough to be a better escorter.

Why is the A6M3a more fragile? I can't see it from the Tracker data, same service rating, same durability.The main advantage I see with the 3a is the maneuverability at high altitude, which is twice as much at that of the A6M2. But I am very curious about your observations.

Francois

Basically just what Pax is saying, (except the speed is actually different, which I also think is the biggest factor against fighters, going to 350). The durability increases from 22-27. If I am going against Jocke's continually masses 4Es, this was crucial in late 42 through early 43. Even against 2nd generation fighters the 3a is more fragile and maneuver seems to add little for me anyway. At the time when I used the 3a most it was escorting long distances from mediocre fields as well. So now with a few groups using it in larger bases, with somewhat shorter distances, it might be better. I only have 2-3 groups still using it, and no more will be made. There are still 200+ in the pools. It might still be very useful with long escorting missions later in the game, but I will also have the Oscar for some of these with its armor.

At 15 hexes (the max distance of the A6M3a) attacking missions, however, achieve more or less nothing. 80% of the times the bombers don't find the target if in mid ocean... And i agree that the late-war oscars III are clearly a better choice for escorting missions on longe range. They have armour and they can get up to 14 hexes....and that's enough to be a better escorter.