Ireland Country Risk Report

About This Report

Abstract:

...The government has already announced a number of fiscal concessions to voters in recent months, and more tax cuts are likely to be implemented as the election approaches. ...This is reflected by the country s two main parties of govern- ment occupying the centre-right (Fine Gael and Fianna Fail). We do not believe Sinn Fein s leftist rhetoric will translate into a stellar performance at the polls in ---- (or earlier), particularly as conditions continue to improve for households, which will likely opt to stick the status quo. Support for Sinn Fein appears to be waning and in our view will decline over the coming months. ...It could also lead to even more protracted coalition negotiations following the vote, which could be lengthy and potentially acrimonious. long-term Political outlook Political challenges Beyond the recession

...NB. Higher Score Indicates Lower Risk -: regaining Pre-crisis living standards Although we remain relatively bullish on Ireland s long-term economic growth potential, we note that there is still a long way to go before the country witnesses a return to the living standards enjoyed in the run up to the --------- financial crisis. ...NB. Higher Score Indicates Lower Risk -: regaining Pre-crisis living standards Although we remain relatively bullish on Ireland s long-term economic growth potential, we note that there is still a long way to go before the country witnesses a return to the living standards enjoyed in the run up to the --------- financial crisis. Skyrocketing unemployment, anaemic wage growth and the government s fiscal austerity policies ensured that GDP per capita plummeted by almost -- from around EUR--,--- in ---- to just EUR--,--- in ----. ...Although any further bailouts remain highly unlikely in our view, a sharp deterioration in Ireland s credit risk profile could endanger the country s economic recovery, as higher borrowing costs puts pressure on the country s relatively shaky fiscal dynamics.

...The ruling Fine Gael/Labour coalition will benefit from Ireland s improv- ing economy and declining support for Sinn Fein in the run up to the ---- parliamentary election. While this suggests an increased chance of the status quo being upheld in the vote, the increasingly fragmented political system means the outlook of the election remains relatively uncertain. ...ongoing Disputes Northern Ireland has been a major factor in Irish politics since the island of Ireland was divided between Northern Ireland and the Republic in ----. The creation of Northern Ireland led to conflict between northern nationalists (mostly Roman Catholic) who seek unification with the Republic and Unionists (mostly Protestant) who wish for Northern ireland to remain within the United kingdom. There are also ongoing disputes with public sector trade unions over proposed public spending cuts. ...

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