2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption

The growth in per capita food consumption was accompanied by significant change in the commodity composition, at least in the countries that experienced such growth. The relevant data and projections are shown in Tables 2.7 and 2.8.

Much of the structural change in the diets of the developing countries concerned the rapid increases of livestock products (meat, milk and eggs), vegetable oils and, to a lesser extent, sugar, as sources of food calories. These three food groups together now provide 28 percent of total food consumption in the developing countries (in terms of calories), up from 20 percent in the mid-1960s. Their share is projected to rise further to 32 percent in 2015 and to 35 percent in 2030. However, structural change was not universal and wide intercountry diversity remains in the share of different commodity groups in total food consumption. The major changes, past and projected, are briefly reviewed below. A more extensive discussion of the forces affecting the main commodity sectors is presented in Chapter 3.

Cereals continue to be by far the most important source (in terms of calories) of total food consumption. Food use of cereals has kept increasing, albeit at a decelerating rate. In the developing countries, the per capita average is now 173 kg, providing 56 percent of total calories. This is up from 141 kg (61 percent of total calories) in the mid-1960s (Table 2.7). Much of the increase in per capita food consumption of cereals in the developing countries took place in the 1970s and 1980s, reflecting inter alia the rapid growth of their cereal imports during the period of the oil boom (see Chapter 3). For the developing countries as a whole, average direct food consumption of cereals is projected to stabilize at around present levels (although it would keep rising if feed use of cereals were added), as more and more countries achieve medium-high levels and diet diversification continues. The share of cereals in total calories will continue to decline, but very slowly, falling from 56 percent at present to 53 percent in 2015 and to 50 percent in 2030.

Food consumption of wheat grew the fastest of all cereals in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Such growth in consumption will be accompanied by continued growth in wheat imports in many developing countries, particularly those that are non-producers or minor producers for agro-ecological reasons (see Chapter 3). In contrast, per capita food consumption of rice should continue its recent trend towards stabilization and gentle decline, reflecting developments in, mainly, the East Asia region.

Food consumption of coarse grains has declined on average, but continues to be important mainly in sub-Saharan Africa (where it accounts for 72 percent of food consumption of cereals) and to a lesser extent in Latin America (42 percent). The decline in other regions, particularly in China, has brought down the average for the developing countries. In future, smaller declines in Asia and some recovery in sub-Saharan Africa could halt the trend towards decline of the average of the developing countries. Aggregate demand for coarse grains will be increasingly influenced by the demand for animal feed. As discussed in Chapter 3, the developing countries will be playing a growing role in the world total demand and trade of coarse grains.

Wide intercountry differences in cereal food consumption will continue to persist. Several countries have per capita food consumption of cereals under 100 kg/year and some below 50 kg (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi and the Central African Republic). These persistently low levels reflect a combination of climatic factors (favouring dependence of diets on roots and tubers, including plantains, in countries mainly in the humid tropics) as well as persistence of poverty and depressed levels of food consumption overall. It is worth noting that Africa includes countries at the two extremes of the cereal consumption spectrum; the countries with the highest food consumption of cereals are also in Africa, namely those in North Africa, with per capita levels in the range of 200 to 250 kg.

The diversification of diet in developing countries has been most visible in the shift towards livestock products. Here again there is very wide diversity among countries as regards both the levels of consumption achieved as well as the speed with which the transformation has been taking place. Several developing countries have traditionally had high meat consumption, comparable to the levels of the industrial countries. They include the traditional meat exporters of Latin America (e.g. Argentina and Uruguay), but also the occasional country with a predominantly pastoral economy, such as Mongolia. However, developments in these countries did not cause the structural change in the diets of the developing countries towards more meat consumption. If anything, they slowed it down as the per capita consumption in many of them either remained flat or actually declined. The real force behind the structural change has been rapid growth in consumption of livestock products in countries such as China10 (including Taiwan Province of China and Hong Kong SAR), the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Chile, Brazil and several countries in the Near East/North Africa region. Indeed, as discussed in Chapter 3, the increase in meat consumption of the developing countries from 11 to 26 kg in the period from the mid-1970s to the present was decisively influenced by the rapid growth in China and Brazil. Excluding them from the totals, the average of the other developing countries grew much less over the same period, from 11 kg to only 15 kg (see Chapter 3, Table 3.10).

In the future we may witness a significant slowdown in the growth of demand for meat. This will be the result of slower population growth and of the natural slowdown in consumption accompanying the achievement of high or medium-high levels in the industrial countries but also in some populous developing ones, such as China. The prospects are slim that other large developing countries such as India will emerge as major meat consumers, because of a continuation of low incomes and the influence of dietary preferences favouring meat less than in other societies. Thus, the boost given in the past to world meat consumption by the surge in China (but see footnote 10) is unlikely to be replicated by other countries with the same force in the future. The major structural changes that characterized the historical evolution of the world livestock economy, particularly in the 1990s, are likely to continue, although in somewhat attenuated form. These are the growing role of the poultry sector in total meat production and the growing share of trade in world output and consumption.

The other major commodity group with very high consumption growth in the developing countries has been vegetable oil. The rapid growth in consumption and the high calorie content of oilcrop products11 have been instrumental in bringing about increases in apparent food consumption (kcal/person/day) of the developing countries, which characterized the progress in food security achieved in the past. In the mid-1970s, consumption of oilcrop products (5.3 kg/ person/year, in oil equivalent) supplied only 144 kcal/person/day, or 6.7 percent of the total availability of 2152 calories of the developing countries. By 1997/99 consumption per capita had grown to 9.9 kg contributing 262 kcal to total food supplies, or 9.8 percent of a total which itself had risen to 2680 kcal. In practice, just over one out of every five calories added to the consumption of the developing countries over this period originated in this group of products (see further discussion of the oilcrops sector in Chapter 3).

In the future, vegetable oils are likely to retain, and indeed strengthen, their primacy as major contributors to further increases in food consumption of the developing countries: 44 out of every 100 additional calories in the period to 2030 may come from these products. Some important structural changes of the historical period in the world oilcrops economy are likely to continue. These are:

the growing share of four oilcrops in the total oilcrops sector (oil palm, soybeans, rape and sunflower);

the continued dominance of a few countries as major producers and exporters; and

the growing role of imports in meeting the food demand for vegetable oils of many developing countries.

Consumption of pulses in the developing countries stagnated overall and registered drastic declines in several countries, mainly in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. These trends reflected not just changing consumer preferences but also, in several countries, failure to promote production of such crops. Often this was the result of preference for increasing production and self-sufficiency in cereals. It is thought that where these declines in protein-rich pulses were not accompanied by increases in the consumption of livestock products, the result has been a deterioration in the overall quality of diets, even where per capita dietary energy (kcal/person/day) increased (for the case of India, see Hopper, 1999). For the future, no major changes are foreseen in per capita consumption of pulses, with the average of the developing countries remaining at about 7 kg.

Roots, tubers and plantains have traditionally been the mainstay of food consumption in several countries with low-middle levels of overall food consumption, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. Nineteen countries, all in sub-Saharan Africa, depend on these products for over 20 percent of food consumption in terms of calories. These countries account for 60 percent of the region's population. In three of them, the dependence is over 50 percent (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda and Ghana). At the same time, the region has countries at the other extreme of the spectrum with only minimal consumption of roots and tubers, such as Mali, Mauritania, the Niger and the Sudan.

The food balance sheet data show that in several of the countries with high dietary dependence on roots and tubers, what happens to the production of these crops is an important determinant of changes in the national average food consumption. As in the case of Nigeria mentioned earlier (Box 2.2), other countries (Ghana, Benin and Peru) also experienced significant increases in per capita food consumption which originated to a large extent in the increases in roots and tubers production. Despite these country examples, the general trend in recent years has been for average per capita food consumption of these products in developing countries to increase only very slowly, and indeed to stagnate if potatoes are excluded. Increases in some countries were compensated by declines in others. The drastic decline in food consumption of sweet potatoes in China had a decisive influence on these trends. Potatoes were the one commodity with consistent increases in per capita consumption in the developing countries.

These trends are expected to continue, as will the high dependence of several countries on roots and tubers as a major source of food. Per capita food consumption of all roots, tubers and plantains in developing countries should increase slowly, from 67 kg in 1997/99 to 75 kg in 2030 (Table 2.7). This increase partly reflects the fact that the downward pressure exerted in the historical period on the overall average by China's lower food consumption of sweet potatoes will be much weaker in the future. Much of the decline in China's per capita consumption of sweet potatoes (from 94 kg in 1974/76 to 40 kg in 1997/99) has already occurred and any future declines will be much smaller. Potatoes will continue to show relatively high-income elasticity in most developing countries, and average food consumption is projected to increase from 17 kg in 1997/99 to 26 kg in 2030. Another factor that could raise consumption is the potential for productivity increases in the other root crops (cassava and yams). It will be possible for more countries in sub-Saharan Africa to replicate the experiences of countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Benin and Malawi, and increase their food consumption based on rapid productivity improvements in these crops.

Table 2.7: Changes in the commodity composition of food consumption, major country groups

Kg/person/year

1964/66

1974/76

1984/86

1997/99

2015

2030

World

Cereals, food

147

151

168

171

171

171

Cereals, all uses

283

304

335

317

332

344

Roots and tubers

83

80

68

69

71

74

Sugar (raw sugar equivalent)

21

23

24

24

25

26

Pulses, dry

9

7

6

6

6

6

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products (oil eq.)

6

7

9

11

14

16

Meat (carcass weight)

24

27

31

36

41

45

Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.)

74

75

79

78

83

90

Other food (kcal/person/day)

208

217

237

274

280

290

Total food (kcal/person/day)

2358

2435

2655

2803

2940

3050

Developing countries

Cereals, food

141

150

172

173

173

172

Cereals, all uses

183

201

234

247

265

279

Roots and tubers

75

77

62

67

71

75

(Developing minus China)

62

61

57

63

69

75

Sugar (raw sugar equivalent)

14

16

19

21

23

25

Pulses, dry

11

8

8

7

7

7

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products (oil eq.)

5

5

8

10

13

15

Meat (carcass weight)

10

11

16

26

32

37

Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.)

28

30

37

45

55

66

Other food (kcal/person/day)

122

129

155

224

240

250

Total food (kcal/person/day)

2054

2152

2450

2681

2850

2980

Industrial countries

Cereals, food

136

136

147

159

158

159

Cereals, all uses

483

504

569

588

630

667

Roots and tubers

77

68

69

66

63

61

Sugar (raw sugar equivalent)

37

39

33

33

32

32

Pulses, dry

3

3

3

4

4

4

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products (oil eq.)

11

15

17

20

22

23

Meat (carcass weight)

62

74

81

88

96

100

Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.)

186

192

212

212

217

221

Other food (kcal/person/day)

461

485

510

516

540

550

Total food (kcal/person/day)

2947

3065

3206

3380

3440

3500

Transition countries

Cereals, food

211

191

183

173

176

173

Cereals, all uses

556

719

766

510

596

685

Roots and tubers

148

132

114

104

102

100

Sugar (raw sugar equivalent)

37

45

46

34

35

36

Pulses, dry

5

4

3

1

1

1

Vegetable oils, oilseeds and products (oil eq.)

7

8

10

9

12

14

Meat (carcass weight)

43

60

66

46

54

61

Milk and dairy, excl. butter (fresh milk eq.)

157

192

181

159

169

179

Other food (kcal/person/day)

288

356

384

306

330

350

Total food (kcal/person/day)

3223

3386

3379

2906

3060

3180

Note: Cereal food consumption includes the grain equivalent of beer consumption and of corn sweeteners.

Sugar shares many of the characteristics of vegetable oils as regards food consumption and trade in the developing countries. It is a fast-rising consumption item and a major export commodity of several countries, such as Brazil, Cuba and Thailand. In addition, several developing countries are becoming large and growing net importers (Egypt, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Korea), making up for the lack of growth of imports into the industrial countries. The developing countries' average consumption is 21 kg/person/year, but it is higher (26 kg) if China is excluded; China has only 8 kg as a lot of saccharine is used instead of sugar. About a half of the developing countries consume less than 20 kg, and a quarter under 10 kg. The scope for consumption growth is still considerable and we project an increase in the average consumption of developing countries from 21 to 25 kg over the projection period. China's contribution to total growth should be more than in the past since the country could be discouraging the use of saccharine (see also Chapter 3).

Note: Cereal food consumption includes the grain equivalent of beer consumption and of corn sweeteners.

2.4 Concluding remarks

Some brief conclusions may be drawn, as follows:

There will be significant progress in raising food consumption levels and improving nutrition. There will be significant reductions in the relative incidence of undernourishment (percentage of population affected), but these will not be translated into commensurate declines in the numbers undernourished because of population growth. Reduction in the absolute numbers of undernourished is likely to be a slow process. Numbers will decline from 776 million in 1997/99 to 610 million in 2015 and to 440 million in 2030.

The number of undernourished in developing countries stood at 815 million in 1990/92 (the three-year average used as the basis for defining the WFS target). This number is not likely to be halved by 2015, just as the absolute numbers in poverty will not be halved (from the level of 1990) according to the latest World Bank assessment. However, the proportion of the population undernourished could be nearly halved by 2015 - from 20 percent in 1990/92 to 11 percent in 2015.

The projected slow progress in reducing undernourishment will reflect the failure of many countries to transit to rapid economic development and poverty reduction.However, empirical evidence suggests that in the countries with high dependence on agriculture, assigning priority to the development of food production holds promise of overcoming the constraint to better nutrition represented by the unfavourable overall economic growth prospects.

In many countries, including some of the more populous ones, the relative incidence of undernourishment (percentage of the population) will decline significantly. Fewer countries than at present will have high incidence of undernourishment, none of them in the most populous class. The problem of undernourishment will tend to become smaller in terms of both absolute numbers affected and, even more, in relative terms, hence it will become more tractable through policy interventions, both national and international.

Despite this slow pace of progress in reducing the incidence of undernourishment, the projections imply a considerable overall improvement. In the developing countries the numbers well fed (i.e. not classified as undernourished according to the criteria used here) could increase from 3.8 billion in 1997/99 (83 percent of their population) to 5.2 billion in 2015 (89 percent of the population) and to 6.4 billion (94 percent) in 2030. That will be no mean achievement.

10 See Chapter 3 for doubts concerning the reliability of the meat sector data in China. If the data actually overstate China's meat production by a considerable margin, the country's impact on the world meat economy and particularly the aggregates of the developing countries would have been more modest than suggested here. 11 The figures given here refer to the consumption of oils as well as that of oilcrops directly (soybeans, groundnuts, etc.) or in the form of derived products other than oil, all measured in oil equivalent. This consumption of oilcrops in forms other than oil is particularly important in some countries.