Every year in this space, I write a Cincinnati Reds preview that is
wildly incorrect -- when I predict a World Seris appearance, the Red
Legs tank; if I foresee gloom and doom, they at least hang around on
the peripherals of a pennant race far longer than one might suppose.

So in this fourth annual edition of "The Hunt for a Reds October,"
let's dig back into the annals of Red Leg lore and "bottom line" it; by
comparing the projected 2008 edition of the Reds with their most
successful forebears -- the last Reds team to win a title (1990) and
the greatest team in franchise history (1975) we can at least more
accurately (one would surmise) project whether or not there is a
glimmer of hope for the glint of a World Series trophy shining over the
Queen City in 2008. Let's see ...

First, we should start by stating outright, there is nothing remotely
scientific about this analysis; and I should admit that as an Ohioan
born and raised, I will probably find it hard to imagine anyone
comparing particularly well to the Big Red Machine (BRM) of my youth or
even the Nasty Boys of my first post-collegiate place of residence,
also in Ohio ... but regardless, let's meet the contenders!

Um ... So What?Okay, let's break that down a little further, position-by-position.

Catcher Dave Ross is a nice player, but not quite as good
as the '90 Oliver and of course, then you have Arguably The Greatest
Catcher Who Ever Lived, Johnny Lee Bench. From a depth perspective,
Ryan Hanigan is a .300 career hitter (he's, uh, 3-for-10) but the Reds
are in trouble if they need to go to him as a long-term answer. Jeff
Reed '90 and Bill Plummer '75 were both better in that regard. Let's go
(1) 1975 (2) 1990 (3) 2008. No surprises!

First Base So there's a (some say borderline) Hall of
Famer in Tony Perez, a really nice and productive Todd Benzinger/Hal
Morris platoon in '90 and, another nice pair in '08, including '07 .310 hitter Scott
Hatteberg and rookie masher Joey Votto. It's Perez in a runaway,
but very close after that. But let's go, in a mild upset, (1) 1975 (2)
2008 (3) 1990.

Second Base Oh, look, another Hall of Famer for the BRM!
And it's the '75 NL MVP to boot! The Duncan/Oester pairing in 1990 was
more than serviceable, but Brandon Phillips is already the best 2B in
Cincinnati since., well. you-know-who. (1) 1975 (2) 2008 (3) 1990.

Shortstop When Davey Concepcion played shortstop for the
Reds, he was generally considered the best shorstop in team history,
though that did not land him the Cooperstown plaque young fans all over
Ohio assumed (probably in error) he deserved. Anyway, he eventually
gave up the Best-Reds-SS title to Barry Larkin, the Cincinnati native
who steered the '90 ship. The '08 Reds? Well, Alex (not the ex-Jay)
Gonzalez is a heckuva nice player, may even make an All-Star team or
two going forward, but he does not belong in the Concepcion-Larkin
discussion. (1) 1990 (2) 1975 (3) 2008.

Third Base Speaking of potential All-Stars, Edwin
Encarnacion is going to make the Rangers regret trading him, especially
if Hank Blalock stays injury-prone, but he is not yet to the level of
Chris Sabo's career, much less some guy named Rose -- controversy
aside, it's hard to argue that Rose was a great, great player and
certainly a positive cog in the BRM glory years, regardless of what came
next. (1) 1975 (2) 1990 (3) 2008

So we're around the infield and so far ... What a shock,
we see 1975 in the lead 14 points (three for first, etc.) followed by 1990
with nine points and 2008 with 7. Let's move on the outfield and see
where this ends up.

Left FieldAh, the '08 squad "wins" a position. Perennial
50-homer threat Adam Dunn hit balls farther than even Ted
Kluszewski could've dreamt of; '75er Foster actually did hit that many
(52) once, but was a few years away from that pace in '75, when he hit 23 and
drove in 78 after taking over in LF in May when Rose made the
surprising move to 3B. Dunn may reach those marks by the All-Star
break! Billy Hatcher, you were a nice player and an important part of a
title team, but thanks for stopping by. (1) 2008 (2) 1975 (3) 1990.Center FieldiIf
Jay Bruce is anywhere near as good as some people think he will be, he
may rocket to the top of this list sooner rather than later. But with
exactly zero career MLB at-bats so far, who can tell? It's just as likely
Ryan Freel might end up the Reds' everyday CF. The '75 squad had Cesar
Geronimo, who was a year and 50 points away from a '76 career-best .307 average, and
the '90 Reds had Eric Davis, who was a superstar and sure-fire Hall of
Famer in 1990. We'll go (1) 1990 (2) 1975 (3) 2008.

Right Field
Oh, Paul O'Neill, if only your last name was "Griffey"! The young
O'Neill was a very nice player for the '90 reds, but not yet nearly
fully developed into the Yankee pest he would become to the rest of the
AL throughout the decade. So it's really a battle of the Griffeys, Sr.
vs. Jr., isn't it? Dad had 2000+ hits and a wonderful career, but even
on the downslope, the son outshines the father. (1) 2008 (2) 1975 (3)
1990.

Bench
Of course the '75 Reds had the best Bench of these three -- but he was
the starting catcher. As for the top collection of offensive reserves,
none of the three options are all that eye-popping; if the '08 group
gerts solid non-starting contributions from Votto and Freel, it could
leap to the head of the pack. Should the '90 crew get bonus
points for including Griffey Sr.? Frankly, this is a three-way tie for
first (or last?) ... (2T) All three.

Rotation
The '75 and '90 starting rotations were both vastly underrated than
most ring-winning groups are. Can Edinson Volquez make the Josh
Hamilton trade seem less like pure theft by the Rangers? Actually, the '08 Reds would
be thrilled to duplicate their earlier cohorts' production. (1) 1990
(2) 1975 (3) 2008.

Closer/Bullpen
Captain Hook versus the Nasty Boys! It's actually hard to dub Eastwick
and Myers as the "closers" on their teams, though as the leaders in
saves and save chances, they surely were. But
McEnaney/Borbon/Carroll and Dibble/Charlton/Layana were all as
important to the great bullpen successes of both teams. The '08 Reds
will definitely have a single closer -- unless he implodes -- as
Francisco Cordero signed a ridiculously huge contract to make a run at
the team's single-season saves record (48 by Jeff Shaw a decade ago). Hmmm ... (1) 1990 (2) 1975 (3) 2008

Manager
Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella have combined with Sparky Anderson to preside over 4,960 big
league wins. Piniella had 255 wins and the one ring in his time
with the Reds, in addition to four other non-Cincinnati division
titles; Baker has no wins with the Reds yet, but two division titles
and one pennant to his name (though no rings). The Main Spark had
863 of his 2,194 career wins in Cincy, including four pennants and
two rings. In his career, he managed six division winners, five
of whom went on to the Series, three of who won that Series. But the most impressive thing about his Cincinnati time (other than that guest spot on WKRP,
of course)? Nine seasons, eight times finishing first or second.
Maybe Lou and Dusty end up in Cooperstown some day; Anderson is already
there. (1) 1975 (2) 1990 (3) 2008.

Um ... Again, So What?
Oh, hell, I don't know. I get this wrong every year, remember?

The numbers -- let's see, three times six carry the nine, divided by pi
(times r-squared), well, I was an English major who minored in
Philosophy and took "Logic" for math requirements, so actually, these
rankings are not only mathemetically worthless, I can't even interpret them!

That said, the '08 squad doesn't look quite as strong as the '90 team
and would probably lose 120 of 162 against the '75 behemoth. Then
again, the 2008 NL Central doesn't look as strong as, say, the '75 or
'90 AL West, where the Reds resided at the time (along with Atlanta, another
"West" team!)

Bauxites responding the '08 NLC poll had the Reds in a far, far, barely
visible speck in the distance third place in the division, behind CHC
and MIL. That's probably about right. But what needs to happen for the
Reds to actually win the division this year? Well, if ...

Adam Dunn hits 50 homers;

Edwin Encarnacion make the All-Star team;

Brandon Phillips is an MVP candidate;

Jay Bruce wins Rookie of the Year;

Ken Griffey Jr. repeats his 2007;

Francisco Cordero saves 50 games; and

The starting rotation stays healthy ...

... then this is your NL Central team to beat! Now, all of those things are possible, individually; the odds of them ALL happening this season are, well, less than likely. But hey, you know, the 1990 Reds did it ...

This year's edition? (And remember, I'm always wrong about the Reds) ... nice year, 83-79, third in the NL Central.

83 wins in third place? In the Central? Well, I guess the Astros look even worse and the Cardinals might too, depending on how things break for them, so there are a few wins around to be claimed. I'll state again here though...don't underestimate how terrible this division was last year. No team was above .500 against another division (excluding interleague), and only Florida (18-20), Colorado (20-20), and San Fransisco (20-20) failed to put up a winning record against them.

That said, a division can only be this bad for so long, and the Reds are showing glimmers of hope. I hope for their pitching staff's sake the new kid in Centre has some awesome range. The top five starters got 129 starts in last year, so they weren't terribly unhealthy last year, just terrible for the most part (probbaly better then Houston, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis in 2007 though). I'd guess third place, but something more like 77-85.

This team can win, and they don't need miracles from Dunn, Bruce, Encarnacion et. al.. What they do need is Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez to pitch like they can, and for Arroyo, Harang and Fogg to be healthy. Obviously, one cannot count on two young pitchers breaking through at the same time, but neither should one be shocked if it happens. Their chances of winning are maybe 5-10%...

Bailey is not yet 22. His control has been better than Ricky Romero's or David Purcey's, and at a much younger age for the developmental level. I am not saying that he will succeed, but merely that we shouldn't be shocked if he emerges as an ace very quickly.

According to the utterly indispensible BaseballReference.com, only four men in major league history -- and just the one since 1947 -- who went by "Homer" have ever pitched in the big leagues, including our current David DeWitt "Homer" Bailey. And after all, it's not a great name for a pitcher to have!

The other Homers (career W-L shown) are Spragins (0-0), Hillebrand (8-4) and Blankenship (1-3). So young Bailey (4-2) is already second on the all-time list, tied for best career winning percentage too, and probably will have more wins than all the other Homers combined in his career before the 2008 All-Star break!

Bailey looks like one of those cases where it's important to separate "Good Prospect" (ie., young, great tools) from "Good Player" (possessing skill, not just talent). Frankly, he looks like a pre-2000 Roy Halladay - great stuff, but doesn't really know what to do with it. In AAA, he had a 32/59 bb/k rate in 67 innings. When he made the majors, it dropped to 28/28 in 45 innings. That's just ugly, and will probably get uglier - major league hitters will eat him alive if they know he can't get the ball over the plate reliably.

He can definitely be an ace, but he needs to be able to throw strikes. Rushing a pitcher with strike zone issues is just asking for trouble.