BABINECK ON TEXANS: Stats, results don't quite jibe

HOUSTON -- The city that endured the Enron scandal can
appreciate fuzzy math.

So, too, can its football team.

On more than a few fronts the Houston Texans boast some
eye-popping statistics that place them among the AFC's elite. It
doesn't take a bookish federal prosecutor to dig a little deeper
and find the truth behind some of the numbers:

FACT: Only Tennessee and Indianapolis are outdoing the Texans'
348 yards per game in the AFC. Yet those other two teams are
fighting for the AFC South lead while Houston is fading, albeit
expectedly, at 2-4.

REALITY: That No. 3 offense falls to No. 14 when it comes to
points, which after all is the only stat that determines who wins
and loses. The aforementioned Titans and Colts are among the
scoring leaders, too, but the Texans are scuffling at 16.7 points
per game.

Center Steve McKinney said Tuesday the coaching staff wants to
average one touchdown per 100 yards, which would mean the Texans
would like to be in the 20-TD range right now. Instead they've
scored just 11. To make matters worse, they are one of four AFC
teams whose defense or special teams has yet to chip in a
touchdown.

FACT: The Texans are getting 19 first downs a game, fourth-best
in the NFL and a vast improvement from the inaugural season.

REALITY: Houston is moving the chains on first, second and even
fourth downs (they're 6-for-8). NFL offenses butter their bread on
third down conversions, however, and that's where the black ink
turns to red.

The AFC average for third down conversions is 35.6 percent, with
Oakland the most inefficent at 26 percent. Houston isn't much
better, and it's 31 percent conversion rate is 14th best in the
conference.

Third-down woes, exacerbated by inopportune penalties, killed
the Texans last Sunday against the Jets. Houston outgained New York
yet couldn't manage a scoring drive after the first quarter and
finished the game 3-for-12 -- or 25 percent -- on third downs.

"Our third down is an area that we have to improve in," Capers
said. "That's what enables you to stay on the field and maintain
drives. So we have to get better in that area."

FACT: David Carr has been sacked just 10 times in six games,
making him among the best-protected quarterbacks in the league.
It's a far cry from last season, when he went down a record 76
times.

REALITY: There's nothing fishy about this stat in and of itself.
The revamped offensive line is doing yeoman's work, Carr is
executing better and the playcalling has lent itself to keeping him
upright.

The problem comes when Houston's defense is added to the
equation. When coach Dom Capers pores over game results he
correctly considers net sacks, hoping his defense dropped the
opposition quarterback more often than Carr was felled.

That isn't happening. There were plays Sunday when Jets
quarterback Vinny Testaverde looked like he could have analyzed
Enron's convoluted finances and still had time to throw.

FACT: Corey Bradford is second in the NFL in yards-per-catch
(21.4) for players with 10 or more receptions.

REALITY: He barely meets that standard with 13 catches in six
games, and that comes on an offense that had struggled to run the
ball consistently until Domanick Davis' breakout game against the
Jets.

Whether he's not getting open frequently or the Texans don't
trust his hands enough to try him more, Bradford has shown he can
do big things once he gets the ball downfield. Now that talented
rookie Andre Johnson is going to see most of the defensive
attention, Bradford, Jabar Gaffney and Billy Miller must become
more visible targets.