Globe has 2nd - 7th warmest October on record; U.S., 3rd coldest

The globe recorded its sixth warmest October since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated October 2009 as the 2nd warmest October on record, falling 0.06°C short of the record set in 2005, while the UK HADCRUT3 data set rated October the 7th warmest (this data set does not include most of the Arctic, Antarctic, and Africa, where there are few land stations). NOAA rated the year-to-date period, January - October 2009, as the fifth warmest such period on record. The October satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 6th - 7th warmest on record. Global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies were the 5th warmest on record.

Third coldest and top wettest October on record for the U.S.For the contiguous U.S., the average October temperature was 4.0°F below average, making it the 3rd coldest October in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The cold was centered in the Midwest, where Oklahoma had its coolest October on record and ten other states had a top five coolest October. The nationwide precipitation of 4.15 inches was nearly double the long-term average of 2.11 inches. Three states (Iowa, Arkansas, and Louisiana) saw their record wettest October. Fourteen other states had precipitation readings ranking in their top five category. Only three states (Florida, Utah, and Arizona) saw below normal precipitation. Arkansas continued its remarkable run of wetness in 2009. The state has seen four months with top three precipitation ranks this year (May, 1st wettest; July, 3rd wettest; September, 2nd wettest; October, 1st wettest). As a result, the state's year-to-date average is the wettest in 115 years of record keeping. This contrasted with persistent dryness in Arizona, which saw its second-driest year-to-date period.

U.S. drought decreasesAt the end of October, 12% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is the second-smallest drought footprint of the decade, based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. Major drought episodes in California and South Texas improved significantly. Drought conditions emerged across much of Arizona. About 45% of the contiguous United States had moderately-to-extremely wet conditions at the end of October, according to the Palmer Index (a well-known index that measures both drought intensity and wet spell intensity). This is the largest such footprint since February 2005.

As I commented in a post earlier this year, drought, on average, has not been increasing in the U.S. over the past few decades. The exception is the Southwest U.S. Increased drought is my top concern in regards to the potential effects of climate change over the next 40 years, and I am pleased to see that so far we have not seen increased drought in the U.S. A recent paper by Andreadis et al., 2006, summed up 20th century drought in the U.S. thusly: "Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century. The main exception is the Southwest and parts of the interior of the West, where, notwithstanding increased precipitation (and in some cases increased soil moisture and runoff), increased temperature has led to trends in drought characteristics that are mostly opposite to those for the rest of the country especially in the case of drought duration and severity, which have increased."

However, drought may be increasing for the world as a whole. Dai and Trenberth (2004) showed that areas experiencing the three highest categories of drought--severe, extreme, and exceptional--more than doubled (from about 12% to 30%) since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an El Niño-related precipitation decrease over land, and subsequent increases primarily due to warming temperatures. I've neglected drought in my blogs, and plan to do a thorough investigation and report on the latest research now that hurricane season is over.

U.S. fire activityOctober, like September, saw below-normal fire activity in all respects. A total of 3,207 fires burned about 158,000 acres in October, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center. Each of these values is below this decade's average for October.

Strong El Niño conditions developEl Niño conditions intensified from moderate to strong over the tropical Eastern Pacific in October. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", were at 1.7°C above average on November 15, just above the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is maintaining an El Niño Advisory. El Niño conditions appear to have stabilized over the past week, and no further intensification of El Niño is likely for the remainder of November. Model forecasts favor moderate to strong El Niño conditions during the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2009 - 2010.

October sea ice extent in the Arctic 2nd lowest on record October 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Only 2007 saw lower Arctic sea ice extent. During the first two weeks of November, Arctic ice extent decreased below the 2007 record minimum, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record low ice extent this month is the first extended period of record minimum Arctic sea ice since 2007. The new record minimum suggests that the gains in ice seen over the past two years were probably a temporary fluctuation due to normal year-to-year variability in the weather, and that the long-term Arctic sea ice decline observed since the 1970s is continuing.

Next postI'm working on a rather lengthy analysis of the global warming scientist vs. skeptic controversy, including last week's hacked email affair. I'll post it when I get it done, most likely on Tuesday, but perhaps Wednesday.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2N 107.6E TO 6.6N 103.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 240532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5N 107.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT ON THE WESTERN HALF OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED TWO REGIONS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS NEAR THE LLCC, HOWEVER, WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WERE RAIN CONTAMINATED BUT PREDOMINANTLY SHOWED 20 KNOTS. A 240626Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO INDICATED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, BUT DID NOT SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 251100Z.//NNNN

For yr interest, we are having some very wet weather indeed in NW England and SW Scotland at the moment, breaking numerous records, and causing a lot of distress to people, businesses etc. With a milder Winter being forecast by the Met. Office, more of the same seems likely, as we usually get v. wet and windy conditions with the warmer than usual Autumn/Winter weather here; a lot of energy in the Atlantic, I guess.

Look fwd very much to your comments and assessment of the U.E.A. e-mail hacking controversy; also good comments on this on 'Real Climate' at the moment.

"GLOBAL MODELS ARE SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER DYNAMIC SYSTEMTO DIG INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...INCLUDING THENORTHERN GULF COAST...DURING MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. KEEPIN MIND THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FAR EXTENDED PORTION OFTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE DETAILS OF THE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELYTO CHANGE BEFORE THEN. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARECURRENTLY SHOWING A PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ALIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE FORECAST AREA. KEEP UP TODATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WITHRESPECT TO THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN CASE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATBECOMES MORE LIKELY."

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *SOCC ENGINEERING IMPLEMENTED CONTINGENCYCOMMANDING PROCEDURES IN AN ATTEMPT TO RECOVER THE RECORDER. ALLATTEMPTS TO COMMAND THE RECORDER BACK INTO PLAYBACK MODE WEREUNSUCCESSFUL. THERE WAS NO MODULATION OF THE DOWNLINK CARRIER DETECTEDBY REMOTE SITES. **BASED ON THESE RESULTS, PRIMARY RECORDER (PR #2 FOR F-13 IS OFFICIALLY IN-OPERABLE.** THEREFORE, ALL DATA RECORDERS ON F-13HAVE NOW FAILED. **F-13 CAN NO LONGER ACCOMPLISH ITS PRIMARYMISSION TO PROVIDE GLOBAL SMOOTH DATA. **F-13 CAN STILL BE USED BY TACTICALUSERS FOR REAL-TIME DATA.*

Commenting on the above average temps in S FL and the area, it's been 3-4 degrees warmer than average here so far this month. I will say it felt a heck of a lot hotter than 84 degrees yesterday afternoon in Nassau. Normally we are closer to 80 than 85 by the time Thanksgiving week rolls around.

Hopefully we get some moderation of temperatures by the weekend. I'm kinda tired of being hot now.... lol

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Bongani (1003 hPa) located at 9.5S 51.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disutrbance is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots

Additional Information========================The system has disrupted within the last night, actually dry air has entered in the circulation in the west northwest sector. As the microwave imagery depicts it (SSMIS 89 GHZ color at 0358z), and with a south-easterly wind shear. According to the Numerical Weather Prediction Models, the dry air influence should decrease within the next 24 hours. During the next 3 days, low level convergence is not expected to increase, Despite a good upper levels divergence and a upper level outflow developing southward within the next 48 hours, re-intensification is expected to be limited by the lower levels. The system is expected to track west-southwest, its steering flow is a mid tropospheric ridge in its southeast.

ALL INTEREST IN THE FAHQUAR ARCHIPELAGO, NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR, COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE ISLAND SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITORED THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

It is getting late gentlemen, and I must be going. It has been a pleasure. You all stay well and thank you again. I would imagine the debates shall beging again tomorrow. Let us see what misinformation shall be disseminated next. It is interesting to see how little people really know. Have a good day.

No apology necessary. We all do it. You think I make up all those corny quotes. I only give credit to the well-known ones and hope people think I do the others. Hey, when I post the pictures from the Atlantic you think I painted it?? Don't sweat it. You are much like your handle; a cool guy. Let it rest.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses? 'I wish to be left alone,' said Scrooge. 'Since you ask me what I wish, gentlemen, that is my answer. I don't make merry myself at Christmas and I can't afford to make idle people merry. I help to support the establishments I have mentioned-they cost enough; and those who are badly off must go there.'

Ha ha. From memory, too!

"There are some upon this earth of yours," returned the Spirit, "who lay claim to know us, and who do their deeds of passion, pride, ill-will, hatred, envy, bigotry, and selfishness in our name, who are as strange to us and all out kith and kin, as if they had never lived. Remember that, and charge their doings on themselves, not us."