Orange juice waits for Friday’s USDA estimates

General Comments: Futures closed lower in consolidation trading. Many are now looking ahead to Friday and the next USDA Oranges production estimates. USDA is expected to keep the crop production estimate unchanged, but might lower the total production by up to 1.0 million boxes. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are expected to improve with the recent rains, but drier weather is expected for the rest of this week. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support item. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal and above normal this weekend. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 104 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 139.00, 136.00, and 132.00 July, with resistance at 145.00, 146.00, and 147.50 July.

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday on slow planting progress and ideas of good demand left from the weekly export sales report from USDA. The sales were big and China was the major buyer. Ideas are that the demand can continue for now as China moves to increase its stocks and as private buyers there reject offers from the government due to quality and price. Planting conditions for the next crop remain a problem in the US. Rains will move through the Delta and Southeast again late this week to keep progress slow. Weather will be watched as more wet weather in the Delta and Southeast could create less interest in Corn and more in Cotton to avoid having Corn pollinate in the hottest time of the year. So far, planting of all crops is slow. Short term trends are mixed.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry weather until rains develop in the Delta on Friday and in all areas on Saturday. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will get mostly dry weather this week and some scattered and light showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near to above normal, then cooler this weekend. The USDA spot price is now 82.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.493 million bales, from 0.494 million yesterday. ICE said that delivery notices were 23 contracts today and now total 609 contracts for the month. USDA said that Cotton is now 17% planted, from 14% last week, 35% last year, and 27% average.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 86.25, 85.00, and 84.00 July, with resistance of 87.60, 88.05, and 88.50 July.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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