Is mass migration from Mexico to the United States a thing of the past?

At least for the moment, it is. Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center, in a study based on U.S. and Mexican statistics, reported that net migration from Mexico to this country had fallen to zero from 2005 to 2010.

Pew said 20,000 more people moved to Mexico from the United States than from there to here in those years. That’s a vivid contrast with the years 1995 to 2000, when net inflow from Mexico was 2.2 million people.

Because there was net Mexican immigration until 2007, when the housing market collapsed and the Great Recession began, it seems clear that there was net outmigration from 2007 to 2010, and that likely has continued in 2011 and 2012.

There’s a widespread assumption that Mexican migration will resume when the U.S. economy starts growing robustly again. But I think there’s reason to doubt that will be the case.

Over the past few years, I have been working on a book, scheduled for publication next fall, on American migrations, internal and immigrant. What I’ve found is that over the years this country has been peopled in large part by surges of migration that have typically lasted just one or two generations.

Almost no one predicted that these surges of migration would occur, and almost no one predicted when they would end.

For example, when our immigration system was opened up in 1965, experts testified that we would not get many immigrants from Latin America or Asia. They assumed that immigrants would come mainly from Europe, as they had in the past.

Experts have also tended to assume that immigrants are motivated primarily by economic factors. And in the years starting in the 1980s, many people in Latin America and Asia — especially in Mexico, which has produced more than 60 percent of Latin American immigrants — saw opportunities to make a better living in this country.

But masses of people do not uproot themselves from familiar territory just to make marginal economic gains. They migrate to pursue dreams or escape nightmares.

Life in Mexico is not a nightmare for many these days. Beneath the headlines about killings in the drug wars, Mexico has become a predominantly middle-class country, as Jorge Castañeda notes in his recent book, Mañana Forever? Its economy is growing faster than ours.

And the dreams that many Mexican immigrants pursued have been shattered.

You can see that if you look at the statistics on mortgage foreclosures, starting with the housing bust in 2007. More than half were in the four “sand states” — California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida — and within them, as the Pew Hispanic Center noted in a 2009 report, in areas with large numbers of Latino immigrants.

These were places where subprime mortgages were granted, with encouragement from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to many Latinos unqualified by traditional credit standards.

These new homeowners, many of them construction workers, dreamed of gaining hundreds of thousands of dollars as housing prices inevitably rose. Instead, they collapsed. My estimate is that one-third of those foreclosed on in these years were Latinos. Their dreams turned into nightmares.

We can see further evidence in last month’s Pew research report on the recent decline in U.S. birthrates. The biggest drop was among Mexican-born women, from 455,000 births in 2007 to 346,000 in 2010.

That’s a 24 percent decline, compared with only a 6 percent decline among U.S.-born women. It’s comparable to the sharp decline in U.S. birthrates in the Depression years from 1929 to 1933.

Beneath the cold statistics on foreclosures and births is a human story, a story of people whose personal lives have been deeply affected by economic developments over which they had no control and of which they had no warning.

Those events have prompted many to resort to, in Mitt Romney’s chilly words, “self-deportation.” And their experiences are likely to have reverberations for many others who have learned of their plight.

Surges of migration that have shaped the country sometimes end abruptly. The surge of Southern blacks to Northern cities lasted from 1940 to 1965 — one generation. The surge of Mexicans into the U.S. lasted from 1982 to 2007 — one generation.

The northward surge of American blacks has never resumed. I don’t think the northward surge of Mexicans will, either.

if i may add prof Fuchs comments from the comment board below the article:

As a gringo university professor in southern Mexico, I cannot fail to notice the extent to which my Mexican students now consider migrating North to be a desperate option reserved primarily for Central Americans.

Also, seldom does a week go by when a taxi driver doesn’t explain that he returned from the U.S. because the job options are now comparable here. One recently added this comment, “Plus in Mexico, we have liberty.”

Even those who disagree with his perception, should let the fact that many in Mexico now hold this truth to be self evident sink in. The word freedom certainly seems more at home on the lips of many Mexicans these days than on those of an Obama administration spokesman. Many of the huddled masses yearning to be free are starting to doubt whether the U.S. is still the best place to pursue such longings.

AND

No, they are representative of the offspring of those illegal migrants. My university is geared to low-income indigenous students. Most all of their biological fathers did the border crossing, but this is no longer viewed by most of them as the best option. Just as the Germans, Irish and Vietnamese have stopped coming to the U.S. in the numbers they once did, so many Mexicans now give tortillas to the Hondurans passing through on the trains and give thanks it isn’t them. A few of my students have even mustered the kind of snobbery usually reserved for Detroit auto workers in despising the Central Americans who come to take their jobs.

Liberals often charge that conservatives don’t care about these migrants. They accuse them of holding the letter of the law above compassion. There’s truth to this. Many cultures function without the law and order obsession of gringos. The Declaration of Independence and The Bible both proclaim that moral laws supercede the laws of men. However, illegal migration also wrecks havoc on families, which liberals getting too much money from unions to support legal immigration seldom discuss.

Illegal migrants usually leave women and children behind. Sometimes the trip is just a handy excuse for men who prefer to move along or women who wish they would. As a professor here, I deal with this reality constantly. My mostly-fatherless students have the security that often comes from a loving mother during the first decade of life. They’re less neurotic than what locals call “unmothered gringos.”

However, most of them lack the character traits which typically result from firm father love during the teen years. Boys are undisciplined and unmotivated to a criminal extent. Girls are so desperate for male attention that I can’t politely describe the kind of guys they fall for or the tender ages at which they do so. All of this has a cute side, until you see their fatherless kids malnourished, unsupervised and repeating the vicious cycle. I’m well aware that my observation on the effects of fatherlessness won’t be endorsed by politicians. They cater to us adults, who don’t like hearing we’ve made mistakes, rather than children who can’t vote.

Whatever the best immigration solution is, thousands of miles between fathers and children it aint. Legal immigration made America great in the past and makes countries great today. Eager workers come with their dreams, energy, families, and loyalty to their new home. An underground workforce can be made more humane, but it can never be great as long as it is built on the tears of children separated from their daddies. If liberal aristocrats like Eva Longoria knew more about Mexico, they would know illegal migration isn’t a compassionate solution.

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We're not easily offended and don't want people to think they have to walk on eggshells around here (like at another place that shall remain nameless) but of course, there is a limit to everything.

Play nice!

129 Responses to “Now how are we gonna blame the Mexicans?” ( jump to bottom )

@ eaglesoars:
i live in AZ. we aren’t hearing as much about it now as we used to about just plain old illegal immigrants. but i think that is because the cartels have completely taken over all movement north of illicit drugs as well as illegal border crossers.

If The Osprey reads here tonight he might have a more informed take on things. i’ve been avoiding news since the election. i mean, what’s the point? it’s just a circular firing squad of Republicans with a Gimmicrat cheer leading squad.

Oh, and I guess now Mitt Romney’s ‘self-deportation’ remarks aren’t so politically incorrect

i never knew what the problem with those words were. we had been seeing people leave on their own since the real estate crash. many went to TX but so many went to border towns in Mexico that Mexico was whining that they couldn’t afford it and we had to make it stop. not kidding.

Anecdotal evidence from San Diego:
The crowds outside the Home Depots diminished very soon after the housing bubble burst. Same with the encampments I come across on my mountain bike traversals of the county. I think the reduced flow across the border happened several years ago.

I was just watching FNC, and they were talking about a mass shooting at a mall in Portland.

At one point, the anchor said, “A magazine clip was found, which means the gun may have locked.”

WTF is that sentence supposed to mean?

It means you were listening to a news reader who either had little time to read it ahead and figure it out OR had no idea and just read what the teleprompter said. who needs anchors when we have news readers?

Today in the news, Michigan passes right to work, Illinois passes right to carry, and now this… could it be the libs won the battle and lost the war?

They will still vote for Democrats for POTUS. It reminds me of the folks of South Boston who protested the busing of their kids to black neighborhoods in 1975, they still voted for Ted Kennedy and for John F’n Kerry.

Today in the news, Michigan passes right to work, Illinois passes right to carry, and now this… could it be the libs won the battle and lost the war?

They will still vote for Democrats for POTUS. It reminds me of the folks of South Boston who protested the busing of their kids to black neighborhoods in 1975, they still voted for Ted Kennedy and for John F’n Kerry.

maybe so but I find more hope in states asserting their rights than I do in the GOP. This is big

J.C. Watts is considering a run for RNC chairman. Hmmmm haven’t we seen this movie before (Michael Steele being the example)? J.C. Watts (an undistinguished former congressman from Oklahoma) voted for Barack Obama back in 2008 yet because he happens to be black the guilt ridden Republican Establishment will probably vote him in.

Speranza wrote:
voted for Barack Obama
I like Watts and find that hard to believe. Could you source that for me?

My mistake – he said he considered voting for Obama which in my eyes disqualifies him for any GOP job. Bleep him!

In 2008, Watts announced he was developing a cable news network with the help of Comcast, focusing on a black audience,[44] and that he considered voting for Barack Obama, criticizing the Republican party for not practicing outreach to the black community.[45]

Yeah, but talk about sore losers……the violence is a bit, um, disturbing.

“There will be blood, there will be repercussions,” state Democratic Rep. Douglas Geiss, speaking on the House floor on Tuesday, warned ahead of the votes.

SO HAND US THE MONEY, DON’T STAND THERE AND SHIVER,
TAX TIME IS COMING, GIVE ALMS TO THE POOR.
OR I´LL PUT A BULLET RIGHT THROUGH YOUR BEST LIVER,
WEALTH IS DISEASE AND I AM THE CURE,
I AM THE CURE,
I AM THE CURE,
I AM THE….

ok, since this is an open thread. Many of you know Molly the Beagle has terminal liver cancer. She’s still seldom ill to the point you would think anything is wrong but she has to take A LOT of pills.

And she fucking hates pills. She bites me.

Well, we had a visit with the oncologist today and she gave use something called ‘pill pockets’. They’re this malleable stuff you hide the pills in and dogs love them and don’t realize they’re eating the pills.

Not. Molly. Oh, she loves it alright. Enough to hide it to protect it and save it for later. We gave her the first pill pocket tonite. She took off like a bat out of hell and hid the damn thing. We don’t know where it is. Somewhere upstairs. I have to find it so that she doesn’t double dose when she does decide to eat it. Funniest thing I ever saw.

Young Penn. Mother Tells Teens to ‘Get a Job’ When They Ask for a Cigarette — And They Kill Her……A young mother was senselessly murdered by three teens in western Pennsylvania after she told them to “get a job” and stop roaming the streets when they asked her fiancée for a cigarette, police say.

i live in AZ. we aren’t hearing as much about it now as we used to about just plain old illegal immigrants. but i think that is because the cartels have completely taken over all movement north of illicit drugs as well as illegal border crossers.
If The Osprey reads here tonight he might have a more informed take on things. i’ve been avoiding news since the election. i mean, what’s the point? it’s just a circular firing squad of Republicans with a Gimmicrat cheer leading squad.

I live about 15 miles from the border down in SE AZ and we have not seen a decrease in the traffic as most of ours deal with the drug trade. The hordes of simple “looking for jobs” types has slowed but they were never the big part down here.

brookly red wrote:
eaglesoars wrote:
livefreeor die wrote:
So, do we have a pool as to when Bammy will “discover” the wonders of Islam and take the Shahada?
The sooner we see Mooch in a burka perp walk the better.
minor edit
HA!
Perp walk — in a burka.

PB worked in the beginning but Molly got smart. Offer her peanut butter now?- she figures there’s a pill in there SOMEHWERE and won’t touch it. She loves PB but she will NOT have her intelligence insulted. She is hilarious. And a pain in the ass. She’s a beagle.

“Forty-eight of 49 economists predict the Federal Open Market Committee will purchase Treasuries to bolster an existing program to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month. The panel pledged in October to continue that plan until the labor market improves “substantially.”

lobo91 wrote:
@ eaglesoars:
That’s why I use peanut butter with Leia’s pills.
PB worked in the beginning but Molly got smart. Offer her peanut butter now?- she figures there’s a pill in there SOMEHWERE and won’t touch it. She loves PB but she will NOT have her intelligence insulted. She is hilarious. And a pain in the ass. She’s a beagle.

She also used to throw her food and water bowls down the stairs to the TV room when she wanted refills

Molly used to do that with her kong – shove it thru the bannister onto the hardwood dining room floor – for more peanut butter. I finally took it away from her.

One day when we were out for a walk she found a golf ball she brought home as a trophy – shoved it thru the bannister onto MY HARDWOOD FLOOR – and raced down the stairs to catch it on a bounce, run back upstairs and do it again. I couldn’t believe it. THAT didn’t even last a day before Mom did the disappearing act thing.

yenta-fada wrote:
the Federal Open Market Committee will purchase Treasuries to bolster an existing program to buy $40 billion in mortgage bonds each month.
Haven’t they done that before? (ps — we need to talk about Ann barnhardt)

What about Joan of Arc w/ pink hello kitty rifle? She is interesting.
Ann knows the financial system is insolvent. The FED is throwing newly printed money at toxic bank assets/aka derivatives. But do they say that? noooooo.

Young Penn. Mother Tells Teens to ‘Get a Job’ When They Ask for a Cigarette — And They Kill Her……A young mother was senselessly murdered by three teens in western Pennsylvania after she told them to “get a job” and stop roaming the streets when they asked her fiancée for a cigarette, police say.

that is a terrible thing and I don’t have an answer, easy to blame the schools, the parents whatever. I don’t have a magic wand to fix it. I live in the inner city and can only advise people to try to understand that this shit is for real.

Pyongyang, December 7 (KCNA) — The on-going advance to build the DPRK into a sports power provides a worthwhile patriotic stage for augmenting the national power in every way and demonstrating the indomitable spirit and dignity of Songun Korea before the whole world, says Rodong Sinmun Friday in a bylined article.

It is the firm resolution of the Workers’ Party of Korea to put the homeland of Songun on the position of sports power, the article notes, and goes on:

Developing sports means bolstering up national power. Only when a drive for building a sports power makes dynamic progress, is it possible to redouble the mental power of the people, give fuller play to the wisdom and spirit of the nation and bring earlier the day of emergence of a thriving nation.

The Juche-oriented idea of developing sports of the great persons of Mt. Paektu and feats performed by them remain shining, ample conditions are being provided for developing sports under the wise leadership of the WPK and there is increasing social concern for sports. There is, therefore, no goal unattainable when all fields and units raise a hot wind of sports under the banner of great Kim Jong Il’s patriotism.

Everybody should display such strong national self-esteem as keeping one’s feet firmly planted on this land and looking out over the world, ardent patriotic devotion and extraordinary creative work style.

There should be a signal turn in the effort to create social atmosphere of sports, popularize sports and make it part of people’s daily life, bring sports science and technology up to the world level and train reserves for players under a long-term plan, intensify the training of players, reenergize domestic sports contests and improve the material supply service to the field of sports.

The article calls upon all people to fully demonstrate the honor of being victors in the drive to build a sports power by displaying ardent patriotism true to the dear respected Marshal Kim Jong Un’s idea of building a sports power and the decision of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the WPK.

To the citizens of the United States of America from Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

In light of the recent little storm as well as your failure in recent years to nominate competent candidates for President of the USA and thus to govern yourselves, we hereby give notice of the revocation of your independence, effective immediately. (You should look up ‘revocation’ in the Oxford English Dictionary.)

Her Sovereign Majesty Queen Elizabeth II will resume monarchical duties over all states, commonwealths, and terr itories (except North Dakota , which she does not fancy).

Your new Prime Minister, David Cameron, will appoint a Governor for America without the need for further elections.

Congress and the Senate will be disbanded. A questionnaire may be circulated next year to determine whether any of you noticed.

To aid in the transition to a British Crown dependency, the following rules are introduced with immediate effect:

———————–

1. The letter ‘U’ will be reinstated in words such as ‘colour,’ ‘favour,’ ‘labour’ and ‘neighbour.’ Likewise, you will learn to spell ‘doughnut’ without skipping half the letters, and the suffix ‘-ize’ will be replaced by the suffix ‘-ise’. Generally, you will be expected to raise your vocabulary to acceptable levels. (look up ‘vocabulary’).

————————

2. Using the same twenty-seven words interspersed with filler noises such as ”like’ and ‘you know’ is an unacceptable and inefficient form of communication. There is no such thing as U.S. English. We will let Microsoft know on your behalf. The Microsoft spell-checker will be adjusted to take into account the reinstated letter ‘u” and the elimination of ‘-ize.’

——————-

3. July 4th will no longer be celebrated as a holiday.

—————–

4. You will learn to resolve personal issues without using guns, lawyers, or therapists. The fact that you need so many lawyers and therapists shows that you’re not quite ready to be independent. Guns should only be used for shooting grouse. If you can’t sort things out without suing or shooting someone or speaking to a therapist, then you’re not ready to shoot grouse.

———————-

5. Therefore, you will no longer be allowed to own or carry anything more dangerous than a vegetable peeler. Although a permit will be required if you wish to carry a vegetable peeler in public.

———————-

6. All intersections will be replaced with roundabouts, and you will start driving on the left side with immediate effect. At the same time, you will go metric with immediate effect and without the benefit of conversion tables. Both roundabouts and metrication will help you understand the British sense of humour.

——————–

7. The former USA will adopt UK prices on petrol (which you have been calling gasoline) of roughly $10/US gallon. Get used to it.

——————-

8. You will learn to make real chips. Those things you call French fries are not real chips, and those things you insist on calling potato chips are properly called crisps. Real chips are thick cut, fried in animal fat, and dressed not with catsup but with vinegar.

—————- —

9. The cold, tasteless stuff you insist on calling beer is not actually beer at all. Henceforth, only proper British Bitter will be referred to as beer, and European brews of known and accepted provenance will be referred to as Lager. South African beer is also acceptable, as they are pound for pound the greatest sporting nation on earth and it can only be due to the beer. They are also part of the British Commonwealth – see what it did for them. American brands will be referred to as Near-Frozen Gnat’s Urine, so that all can be sold without risk of further confusion.

———————

10. Hollywood will be required occasionally to cast English actors as good guys. Hollywood will also be required to cast English actors to play English characters. Watching Andie Macdowell attempt English dialect in Four Weddings and a Funeral was an experience akin to having one’s ears removed with a cheese-grater.

———————

11. You will cease playing American football. There is only one kind of proper football; you call it soccer. Those of you brave enough will, in time, be allowed to play rugby union (which has some similarities to American football, but does not involve stopping for a rest & advertisements every twenty seconds or wearing full kevlar body armour like a bunch of nancies).

———————

12. Further, you will stop playing baseball. It is not reasonable to host an event called the World Series for a game which is not played outside of America. Since only 2.1% of you are aware there exists a world beyond your borders, your error is understandable. You will learn cricket, and we will let you face the South Africans first to take the sting out of their deliveries.

——————–

13.. You must tell us who killed JFK. It’s been driving us mad.

—————–

14. An internal revenue agent (i.e. tax collector) from Her Majesty’s Government will be with you shortly to ensure the acquisition of all monies due (backdated to 1776).

—————

15. Daily Tea Time begins promptly at 4 p.m. with proper cups, with saucers, and never mugs, with high quality biscuits (cookies) and cakes; plus strawberries (with cream) when in season.

How can I be more informed when I am in a hotel bar in San Jose Ca getting drunk on port?

Seriously though, with the collapse of the housing construction market in AZ I don’t think we are seeing as much migration from Mexico. In 2009, 10 and 11 I saw a lot of brand new pickups piled high with furniture and household goods heading south on the 10.

Um, whoever it was above that said something about IL passing CCW is wrong. A 3 judge panel of the Federal 7th Circuit court ruled 2-1 that the IL ban on all carry (open or concealed) was unconstitutional, based on Heller and McDonald. The ruling was stayed for 180 days to allow the IL state government time to craft and implement an acceptable law allowing carry of some sort under some circumstances. IL could simply pass a replica of the law of one of the remaining “May Issue” states and maybe get away with it. CA would be an example. One interesting point, given the stated reliance on Heller, is that DC bans all carry, so this story is far frtom over. Expect IL to take this up to the next level (SCOTUS) ASAP. But meanwhile, they’ll cobble up some sort of legislation, just in case they are denied cert or are granted cert and lose.

One intersting point (and really the crux of the case) is that the appeals court clearly stated that being able to have a functional gun in your home DID NOT fufill the state’s obligations under Heller to allow the “right to BEAR arms”, holding that the self-defense necessity was no lower outside the home than inside, if not in fact even greater.

Multiple threads on this up at The Volokh Conspiracy as of last evening, and I recommend people read them.

Seriously though, with the collapse of the housing construction market in AZ I don’t think we are seeing as much migration from Mexico. In 2009, 10 and 11 I saw a lot of brand new pickups piled high with furniture and household goods heading south on the 10.

Life in Mexico is not a nightmare for many these days. Beneath the headlines about killings in the drug wars, Mexico has become a predominantly middle-class country, as Jorge Castañeda notes in his recent book, Mañana Forever? Its economy is growing faster than ours.

During the meeting, King Abdullah harshly criticized Egypt and Syria accusing them of forming a “radical new alliance.” ..He slammed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi for marginalizing Jordan during the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas and accused him of causing grave damage to Jordan’s economy “due to the repeated disruptions in the supply of gas.”

Life in Mexico is not a nightmare for many these days. Beneath the headlines about killings in the drug wars, Mexico has become a predominantly middle-class country, as Jorge Castañeda notes in his recent book, Mañana Forever? Its economy is growing faster than ours.
Really ?
Mexico
vs
U.S.A.

the mexican peso has doubled in value vis a vis the us dollar in the past 10 years. that renders straight gdp comparisons in percentage of growth not adjusted to purchasing power pretty much moot.

The rocket crashed, so it wasn’t much of a step Forward for the Norks. I am more worried that the Norks will sell a bomb to Iran (to be passed on to God knows where) than I am that they’ll be able to nuke the Left coast with a missile.

Updated (11:25 p.m.) After weeks of warnings and several stops and starts, North Korea launched its long range rocket on Tuesday night. It crashed into the waters off the Philipines just a few moments later. The reports, if true, are sort of a miracle since just 12 hours ago, North Korea’s space-bound missile was experiencing some pretty serious malfunctions and was being dismantled. That’s why they pushed the launch back a week. Did we mention this major malfunction happened 12 hours ago? Well, it sounds like the North Korean rocket scientists should’ve stuck with the earlier plan, since pieces of the rocket started raining down into the Pacific Ocean a few minutes after launch.

Some of the rocket appears to have made it inot orbit, but again, I am more worried about the Norks selling an atomic bomb to Iran than I am their being able to launch a missile and hit our Left Coast.

coldwarrior wrote:
the mexican peso has doubled in value vis a vis the us dollar in the past 10 years. that renders straight gdp comparisons in percentage of growth not adjusted to purchasing power pretty much moot.
Dec 16, 2002 — Dec 7, 2012: -0.020 (-20.63 %)

i was referring to a chart from 95-2008. my bad.should have looked at the dates

David Cameron: ‘Britain must be at the heart of shale gas revolution’
British Prime Minister Tells Greens: ‘You Are Wrong On Shale Gas’

i will never forget how natural gas was the greenie panacea a decade ago here when it was very expensive. they said it would be a great thing if we could just use more of it, so clean to use instead of coal. companies who switched vehicles over to natgas were lauded as heros to the environment.

now that the marcellus shale and fracing are giving us huge amounts of cheap natgas, its evil. it must be shut down.

I think that is is more that America’s economy is down, though. People who five years ago had the disposable income to hire maids and gardeners no longer have that income, so the illegals who were working as maids and gardeners no longer have work. Too, there is competition from American workers in that space. We don’t hear any more nonsense about “Jobs Americans won’t do”.

now that the marcellus shale and fracing are giving us huge amounts of cheap natgas, its evil. it must be shut down.

The “Greenies” are neo-Luddites. They hate anything that makes life livable for the masses. They want humanity crowded into tenaments in big cities where they freeze in the winter, swelter in the summer, and don’t get enough to eat all year around. The so-called greens are very anti-human in their outlook. That they have as much political power as they do is frightening.