Economic growth in Africa is about to climb off the charts, says Charles Robertson at TEDGlobal 2013. Photo: James Duncan Davidson

In today’s talk, economist Charles Robertson turns up the heat on an idea that’s been simmering for several years: that Africa is seeing rapid economic growth.
Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom
Looking at statistics and at the precedents set by China and India, Robertson brings this idea to a full boil, saying that economists haven’t been nearly optimistic enough in their predictions for the continent. While Africa is currently a $2 trillion economy, by 2050 it will be a $29 trillion economy, he says — bigger than Europe and America combined. It’s a bold talk, full of inspiring graphs all pointing up, up, up.

Africa has, for a long time, conjured up images of famine, disease, poverty and war. But increasingly, entrepreneurship, technological innovation and investment in education are becoming part of the outsider’s mental picture.

Here, a selection of TED Talks fueling that shift:

Euvin Naidoo: Why invest in Africa
Euvin Naidoo: Why invest in Africa. Kicking off TEDGlobal 2007, themed “Africa: The Next Chapter,” South African investment banker Euvin Naidoo takes a data-driven look at the investment opportunities in Africa. The signs he sees that the economy is in a turnaround: decreasing inflation, currencies stabilizing and a growing middle class.

In which country does Guinness sell more of its flagship beer than any other? The answer, as of two years ago, is no longer Ireland — it’s Nigeria. Check out this article in The Telegraph about how the multinational alcohol brand has seen compound annual growth of 13 percent on the continent since 2007, and how it is rebranding Guinness as a result.

The May/June issue of Foreign Affairs took a more tempered look with the article, “Africa’s Economic Boom: Why the Pessimists and Optimists are Both Right.” Authors Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengle write, “At first glance, these two narratives seem irreconcilable. It turns out, however, that both are right, or at least reflect aspects of a more complex reality, which neither fully captures. The skeptics focus so much on the region’s commodity exports that they fail to grasp the extent to which its recent growth is a result of economic reforms (many of which were necessitated by the misguided policies of the past). The optimists, meanwhile, underestimate the degree to which the region’s remaining problems — such as sclerotic institutions, low levels of education, and substandard health care — reflect government failures that will be very difficult to overcome because they are deeply rooted in political conflict.”

Another indication of growth in Africa—a booming travel industry. This summer, Bloomberg News shared that Starwood, Hilton and Marriott hotel groups were all greatly expanding their presence in Africa. (Marriott, for example, increased the number of hotel rooms it planned by 55 percent over the course of a year.) Meanwhile, Skift.com noted that tourism in Thailand grew from non-existent to employing 15 to 20% of the workforce in just a few decades, and predicted that the same would be true in African countries. “In 50 years, Africa will be talked about with the same fervor that global hotel groups and tourism marketers now use to fawn over Asia,” the article predicts.

In July, Yes! Magazine declared an “African economic renaissance” in an article titled “What the US Can Learn from Africa’s Booming Economy.” The lessons here that the West can take, according to the author? Provide local service for local communities, use technology to level the playing field, and consider creativity a major strength.

In January, Jake Bright of The Daily Beast noted a major shift in how Africa was being discussed in global investment circles in the article “Africa is Rising: Inside the Continent’s Great Economic Leap.” The piece begins: “In corporate boardrooms and global-investment seminars, more CEOs and business leaders are talking about Africa. That much was evident at a recent New York Stock Exchange investor conference, where along with references to Africa as the ‘new Asia’ or ‘home of the next Google’ there were forward outlooks by Wall Street analysts, representatives of the continent’s 29 stock exchanges, and presentations on Africa’s tech industry, now claiming mobile-banking innovations outpacing the United States and Europe.”

Others have also noted that Africa is fast becoming a source for technological growth. Check out the Businessweek slideshow, “Digital Innovation is Booming in Africa,” published in May. It looks at the continent’s mobile phone banking technology, cheap solar paneling for villages, and touchscreen tablets’ increasing presence in schools.

Last month, the International Business Times took a look at the latest in Africa and identified “Seven Drivers That Could Transform Africa into the World’s Economic Powerhouse.” Among them: the prevalence of cities on the continent, increased stability, growing trade, the world’s biggest workforce, increased spending on education, the explosion of cell phone use and loads of uncultivated cropland.

Charles Robertson, co-author of The Fastest Billion, is the second speaker in the “Forces of Change” session this afternoon at TEDGlobal 2013. His message is loud and clear: Africa’s future is bright.

Africa is booming: Per capita income since 2000 has doubled; life expectancy has increased by one year every three years; and HIV infection rates are down 23 percent. In the next 30 years, if anyone can do what China has done in the last 30, says Robertson, it’s Africa. But why now?

For one thing, African leadership, which has cut sub-Saharan debt by half in the last few decades. For another, foreign investment. People tend to think that China is Africa’s main investor, but in fact in recent years 60 percent of African investment has come from the West, and even 10 percent is coming from India. And Africa has oil — the same amount as Russia or Saudi Arabia.

Demographics are also a large contributor to growth in Africa. Ten years ago, China was the place to go to start a factory, with its 200 million young people; but this decade there’s going to be a 20 to 30 percent fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China. Today people are turning to Africa, where the number of young people is going to continue to grow until 2050. But more young people need more, better education. That’s improving in Africa, too. In 1975, 9 percent of kids in sub-Saharan Africa received secondary school education. Today, those levels are at 25-30 percent.

But what about corruption? Many cite rampant corruption in Africa as a reason not to invest. But Robertson points out: Corruption and poverty are linked. Every poor country is corrupt. Rich countries are relatively uncorrupt. So the way to improve the corruption in Africa is to invest in Africa.

Photo: James Duncan Davidson

Economists are giving the wrong forecasts for Africa, believes Robertson. The continent’s growth over the past 10 years has been 5.5 percent, and economists predict this growth will remain steady for the next 10. But think about India, says Robertson. For a century it didn’t grow, and then suddenly in the ’80s — boom. Growth shot up. Laying Africa over India’s growth charts shows that it’s on the same path. Robertson gives his forecasts for the next 30 to 40 years: Africa will be a $29 trillion economy by 2050; life expectancy will go up by 13 years; household incomes will go up sevenfold.

How can the rest of the world help Africa grow faster? Robertson is resolute: Buy African music, literature, products. Go on holiday there. Invest. Hire people, give them skills they can take home. And help make the 21st century Africa’s century.

]]>http://blog.ted.com/africas-fastest-billion-charles-robertson-at-tedglobal-2013/feed/1TG2013_048991_D41_5641thuhaTG2013_049031_D41_5681TG2013_049053_D41_5703Forces of Change: The speakers in session 9 of TEDGlobal 2013http://blog.ted.com/forces-of-change-the-speakers-in-session-9-of-tedglobal-2013/
http://blog.ted.com/forces-of-change-the-speakers-in-session-9-of-tedglobal-2013/#commentsThu, 13 Jun 2013 13:00:55 +0000http://blog.ted.com/?p=76316[…]]]>In George Ayittey’s classic TED Talk from 2007, he describes two factions in Africa toggling for control — the “hippo generation,” the ruling elites riddled with corruption and inaction, and the “cheetah generation,” the fast-moving entrepreneurial leaders with the ability to create change. This session — guest hosted by TED Fellows Adrian Hong (who works to empower citizens with technology) and Erik Hersman (a pioneer in the African tech community) will examine how, and if, the latter has pushed forward change in the past six years, while also looking at other parts of the world facing rapid evolution.

Here are the speakers who appeared in this session of TEDGlobal 2013. Click the speaker’s name for a full recap of their talk:

Dambisa Moyo is an international economist who analyzes the macroeconomy and global affairs.