Fantasy Buyer Beware

Every year there seems to be a new crop of players that are overrated by the fantasy hockey community for various reasons. Whether it’s a shiny new contract, the team they play for or simply putting too much stock into past seasons numbers.

I’ve looked into a few names that you should avoid until later on in your the draft, or leave off your fantasy roster entirely.

Patrick Marleau

Marleau used to be a top 5 round pick in most leagues, but that simply isn’t the case anymore. He had a decent playoff run last year with San Jose posting 13 points in 24 games but he is no longer the player he once was and that can be seen in San Jose’s off-season strategy as they brought in Mikkel Boedker, a better offensive option at LW.

Marleau’s decline has been evident over the past two seasons. His 5 on 5 points/60 have been dropping the past 3 seasons.

2013/2014

1.98

2014/2015

1.43

2015/2016

1.16

While his abilities on the powerplay have remained fairly constant, I would once again point to the acquisition of Mikkel Boedker as a reason to expect those numbers to drop. If Boedker shows some chemistry with Thornton or Couture, it could spell the end of Marleaus time as an effective fantasy player.

With all that said he could still put up 40-50 points, so maybe you take a look a Marleau, but I would wait until the last few rounds to do so as there are at least 7 better offensive options on the Sharks.

FRANS NIELSEN

Brought into the motor city from long island and given a big money contract, expectations are higher than ever for the Danish centerman.

I don’t expect that to translate into much offensive success. First off, Nielsen has only hit 50 points twice in his career and he’s 32 years old now so I can’t see a breakout season coming at this point in his career.

Also the Wings still have Dylan Larkin who should get a good chunk of the offensive zone starts.

If Nielsen is still around in the late late rounds of your draft, he might be worth a shot, but anywhere before pick 175 is a mistake.

ANDREW SHAW

Classic example really. Not good player, plays on really good team then gets really bad contract. Andrew Shaw is not a $4 million player. Shaw has never hit the 40 point mark, in fact he only hit it ONCE in his 3 years of junior hockey.

There is no reason to expect that to change. He’s going to a worse offensive team in Montreal where his ice time won’t really change as he’s behind players like Radulov and Gallagher.

I’d set 40 points as a max for Shaw, not even enough to even take a flyer on him late in the draft. He’s a glorified 4th liner and I wouldn’t even touch him in most standard fantasy drafts.

*If PIM’s count, he does have some late round value*

TUUKKA RASK

His GAA has been steady rising and his SV% has been descending closer to the .900 mark for a few years now.

Simply put, he isn’t the elite goalie he once was. He started 64 games last year, which again is a drop from the year before. He also isn’t on an elite team anymore. You used to be able to rely on Rask for over 30 wins, which is a good chunk of fantasy points in most leagues. But the Bruins aren’t the team they were 2 years ago and Rask simply isn’t the same goalie.

He’s still an option later, but don’t be jumping up to take Rask, there are at least 10 goalies who should be locks to put up better numbers than him.

AUSTON MATTHEWS

Okay, hear me out. I’m not saying don’t take Auston Matthews, but I’ve been seeing mock drafts of Matthews going in the top 30 or 40 picks. I just think people need to pump the brakes. His max point production, in my opinion, is 60 points.

This isn’t a knock on Matthews, he simply won’t have the offensive support. He should rack up the powerplay points, so that’s a big positive, but there are a bunch of players who should be LOCKS to grab 60+ points. Once you add in defenders that have more value and the elite group of goalies, there are 40 players who should out produce Matthews. I would wait until pick 50 to grab Matthews, at which point some Leafs fan probably already took him in your league, so just don’t bother.

(If your league is a keeper league, take him 1st or 2nd round)Now cue the angry Leafs, Bruins, Sharks and Habs fans!

Fantasy Buyer Beware was last modified: September 20th, 2016 by Tyler Yaremchuk

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