Tropical wave 92L weakens but could bring heavy rains to Haiti

The tropical wave (92L) that brought heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches to Puerto Rico on Saturday is continuing westward at 10 - 15 mph, but has grown very disorganized. The National Hurricane Center is no longer interested enough in this wave to classify it as an "invest" worthy of generating computer forecasts for. Today through Monday, 92L will encounter 20 - 40 knots of wind shear as it plows though a region of strong upper-level winds associated with the subtropical jet stream. The disturbance will also encounter the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba. If there is anything left of 92L after crossing these mountains, it may have the opportunity to develop beginning on Tuesday, when it will enter a region of wind shear less than 20 knots near central Cuba. None of our reliable computer forecast models is calling for 92L to develop once it reaches this region of lower wind shear. I give 92L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The storm could bring heavy rains of up to four inches to Haiti today and Monday. Rain of four inches are probably the lower threshold for life-threatening floods to occur in the Haiti earthquake zone, and this disturbance poses the most serious flooding threat Haiti has seen since the earthquake.

Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall over Puerto Rico from Invest 92L.

Elsewhere in the tropicsThe NOGAPS and ECMWF models call for a possible tropical depression to form in the central or western Caribbean next weekend, 6 - 8 days from now.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disasterSoutheast to east winds less than 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Thursday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should cause little motion of the oil slick, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range outlook calls for a continued summertime weather pattern of weak winds over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming two weeks.

I feel like crying this Morning Hurricanes are forming to the east of us and to the west of us We have what we call hurricane weather today in Belize when winds come out of the west and the Hummidity is terrible

Yep, I've been lost in some other forums over the Winter but back here now to keep an eye on all things Tropical concerning the GOM which is really warm for June this year, it could be down right scary by July, August and September!

Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...

I heard from TampaSpin that they would close down the plant if oil was near.

DeepwaterHorizonJIC — June 20, 2010 — The Coast Guard flies pelicans rehabilitated from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill from New Orleans to Texas to be released into the wild June 20, 2010. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 2nd Class Gina Ruoti.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:Tampa gets all of its water from the Hillsborough River and St. Pete/Clearwater gets their water from wells within Hillsborough Co and the desalinization plant.

Well, I don't know anything about desalinization, but I would think a normal water treatment facility may or may not have an issue with oily water, depending on what kind of treatment they use. They can get a lot of crap out of water. Unfortunately, that doesn't help the wildlife in the area...

Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.

Well, I can almost promise you it won't be going out to sea... Look at steering

Yes that is a terrible run, but I still think it means nothing without a defined LLC, plus model runs can change once they send out the hurricane hunters to gather observations of the environment around the storm. So nothing is set in stone, hell it still has a chance to curve out to sea.

Terrible run or not, a storm with this strength will move the oil or cause BP to temporarily leave the GOM.

I patrolled 10 miles of Beach on an ATV Sunday morning ending at the Destin West Jetti and no signs of oil the entire trip. I guess a few patches of oil came in last week but they got it cleaned up and not most of our area is in good shape until the next wave of oil, time will tell.

Quoting twhcracker:how is the oil in grand isle now, even worse? We dont hear about it now anymore since it is hitting us here in fla. just wondered if currents are affecting it differently aqnd making it less. or is it the same. or more?

Grand Isle Proper in the front ,,is getting some oil..but the Main influx seems to be near Barataria Bay.