Justin Trudeau’s great expectations clash with reality in China

Charles Dickens wrote a classic when he penned Great Expectations. Political leaders, on the other hand, make the classic mistake whenever they create expectations they don’t meet.

November 14, 2017

Justin Trudeau was no exception Monday as he left the Great Hall of the People in Beijing without an expected announcement that Canada and China would begin formal free trade negotiations.

Not that it was the prime minister’s fault.

His trade minister, François-Philippe Champagne, insisted during an interview Sunday with CBC Radio’s The House that issues remained to be worked out. And Canadian officials made the point to reporters in an off-the-record briefing before the trip.

June 17, 2017

It’s just that few people were buying the line.

Most business leaders, diplomats and political pundits thought this week’s trip to China — with its high-level meetings between Trudeau and the top two Chinese leaders, with its stated focus on trade, closer ties and shared prosperity — would produce an announcement that after four rounds of exploratory talks and months of efforts, Canada and China would finally make a commitment.

September 2, 2016

“Prime ministers usually don’t go on trips like that without something to announce,” said John Manley, the CEO of the Business Council of Canada, who was one of the few people cautioning Trudeau to proceed slowly after being the sole holdout two weeks earlier in signing an agreement in principle with Japan and the other members of Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The two sides have been engaged in exploratory talks for a year. China made it clear it was ready to take the next step, to try and forge its first agreement in North America, and its first with a member of the G7 group of industrialized nations. (Continued: CBC)

Bombardier hit with 219% duty on sale of jets to Delta Air Lines

OTTAWA—Bombardier’s hopes for breaking into the U.S. commercial aviation market took a massive blow on Tuesday, as the U.S. Department of Commerce proposed a hefty 219 per cent duty on its CSeries jets.

April 4, 2017

The department ruled in a preliminary decision that Bombardier benefited from improper government subsidies, which gave the Montreal-based company an unfair advantage when selling south of the border.

The investigation was sparked by a complaint from U.S. aerospace giant Boeing, after Bombardier secured a deal for up to 125 of its CS100s with Delta Air Lines in April 2016.

The list price for the planes is around $6 billion, but the actual amount of money involved in the deal has not been made public and Boeing alleges Bombardier offered them for much less.

October 13, 2016

The financial penalties aren’t officially due until Bombardier delivers the first CS100 to Delta, which is expected in the spring. They could also still be dropped or refunded.

The key will be whether the U.S. International Trade Commissions finds that Bombardier-Delta deal actually hurt Boeing’s business, a decision that’s not expected until the spring. (Source: Toronto Star)

Trudeau government to legalize marijuana by Canada Day 2018: reports

The Liberal government plans to announce legislation next month that will legalize recreational marijuana use nationally by Canada Day 2018, CBC News reported Sunday night.

The report, aired first on CBC’s flagship TV show, The National, said the government plans to introduce the legislation the week of April 10.

Another report, however, indicated the bill would be introduced on April 20, or 4/20, a symbolic date for marijuana users.

According to the CBC report, Ottawa will secure the country’s marijuana supply and license producers. The national age limit to purchase the drug will be set at 18, but provinces will be able to set it higher.

Provinces will also control price, along with how marijuana is bought and sold.

Also, Canadians who wish to grow their own marijuana would be limited to four plants per household.

The new rules generally follow the recommendations of a federal task force chaired by Anne McLellan, a former justice minister. The task force delivered a 106-page report in December with 80 recommendations.

Bill Blair, the former Toronto police chief who, as a Liberal MP, was Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s point person on the issue, briefed the Liberal caucus on the roll-out plan and planned legislation during meetings this weekend, CBC said. (Source: Toronto Star)

Why President Trump might not be the worst for Canada

Yes, the Donald Trump presidency is going to be bad. Yes, it might be a disaster. But it won’t necessarily be a disaster for Canada.

Consider Canada-U.S. trade. President Trump talks like he believes global trade is a form of war, and every day he threatens to start one. Canada is an exceptionally trade-dependent economy, and almost all of our trade is with the United States. Many of our industries have integrated, cross-border production chains. If President Trump wages trade war against any and all imports, Canada is going to suffer catastrophic collateral damage.

But much more likely, as Blackstone CEO and Trump economic adviser Stephen Schwarzman told Canadian government officials on Monday, is that the President will go after countries running big trade surpluses. That means China. It also means Mexico, which Mr. Trump consistently portrays as a stealer of jobs and exporter of illegal aliens. As a result, NAFTA is almost certainly doomed.

But if NAFTA disappears or is sent into the limbo of renegotiation, the earlier Canada-U.S. free-trade agreement still stands, and still protects much (though not all) of Canada’s trade access. Given that Canada-U.S. trade is relatively balanced – Canada runs a small trade surplus with the U.S. when oil prices are high, and a deficit when they’re low – it’s unlikely that the Trump administration is going to want to make Canada a priority target.

Visibly steamrolling the Mexican economy will be popular with many voters from both parties. Ditto a trade fight with China. But attacking Canada? There’s no economic logic to it. Nor would there be much domestic political upside in starting a trade war with the place Americans consistently call their most admired foreign country.

Bottom line: The end of NAFTA is not a good thing. However, if the Trump administration stops there, it would mean a big hit for Mexico, but a relatively small hit for the Canadian economy. (Source: Globe & Mail)

The Issues Facing Canada If Trump Or Clinton Win

Canada’s neighbour elects a new president Tuesday with either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump to take up residence in the White House. Each are proposing different agendas for the U.S. that pose questions, opportunities and challenges to cross-border relations.

October 15, 2016

Hillary Clinton is a known quantity to Canadian officials from her time as a U.S. senator and secretary of state, which has also given her an understanding of Canada’s role in the world, says Gordon Giffin, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada: “Sometimes there’s too much focus on what we sell back and forth across the 49th parallel and not enough attention to the fact that Canada is quite engaged with the United States all over the world on issues and principles and values that we share. And she knows all of that, so she starts from a pretty strong foundation of engagement with Canada.’’

March 11, 2016

As a self-described outsider of American politics, Donald Trump would have few connections to the Liberal government in the Great White North. Trudeau would have to build a relationship with a man who he has suggested holds different values than himself. And Trump has bashed Canada at various points during the campaign, specifically on health care. Political relationships would be built from scratch. But Trump does have economic advisers familiar with Canada who could guide Trump in cross-border issues, Brock says.

October 19, 2016

Despite Canada’s best efforts, Canadian interests could be sidelined while Clinton deals with more pressing domestic issues like resistance to her supreme court nominees and congressional Republicans who will work to thwart her agenda at every turn. Coupled with her international obligations like involvement in the Middle East and Asia, Clinton may be hard-pressed to find a lot of time for major new issues in the Canada-U.S. Relationship.

Given Canadian public opinion polls that show respondents favour Clinton over Trump, it’s not farfetched to say the Liberals are hoping the Republican candidate doesn’t win on Tuesday. Giffin says a Trump presidency wouldn’t be a fatal blow to Canada-U.S. relations: The relationship may be a little rough at the outset based on Trump’s tough stances on trade and immigration, but would smooth out over time. Giffin says the relationship itself is bigger than any one president: “It has a momentum and a centre of gravity that sort of drags an administration towards engagement with Canada, which is good.’’ (Huffington Post)