Bill O'Reilly: Donald Trump's big gamble

By going to Mexico last week, Mr. Trump signaled that he is willing to engage in diplomacy. But as soon as he got back to the U.S.A., he repeated his policy of being tough on illegal aliens. There was some nuance but not much. And that is Mr. Trump's big gamble. He is hoping that American voters are fed up with the federal government that will not enforce immigration law, thereby allowing chaos to reign and actual harm to come to Americans like Kate Steinle.

Republican ticket apparently believes there are many voters who are silently sick of permissive immigration policies in place for decades. They are sick of it. Remember, if you are outspoken about enforcing immigration laws, the left will brand you a nativist and perhaps even a racist. That's a vicious card to play. And it has inhibited speech to some extent. There is no question that illegal immigration is an explosive issue. One that allowed Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination. Again, it comes down to this.

Are most American voters fed up with the anarchy? Tough question to answer because you can't count on the polls to indicate true feelings. As mentioned, many people shy away from openly supporting tough measures against illegal aliens, even though they may support them. For those voters, Trump offer as border wall, a crackdown on sanctuary cities and zero tolerance for aliens who commit crimes on American soil. That's a powerful lure for disenchanted voters. That being said, there is no question that Donald Trump will not, repeat, will not deport millions of aliens who have been peaceful while residing in the U.S.A. He seems to be moderating his position on that. More than a year ago, we discussed the issue.

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O'REILLY: I think you're right about the wall. I think you are wrong about the mass deportations and going into families. I think they have to be held accountable. And I think they have to be registered and they have to go through the process. But I can't possibly see how the courts, the federal courts are going to allow federal agents to kick doors in and drag people out.

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O'REILLY: Now, at the time, Donald Trump disagreed with me so what's changed? Well, we'll talk with him about that in a moment. Although it's not directly linked, the race situation is also a problem for Mr. Trump. Truth is, African-Americans will not vote for him in any great numbers. Primarily because the Democratic Party retains credibility in the black precincts. Also, Donald Trump is identified as being a birther, someone who has questioned President Obama's citizenship and Black Americans did not like that.

However it's very possible that African-Americans will not turn out in great numbers at the polls this coming November. Certainly Secretary Clinton is not as popular as President Obama with black voters. Donald Trump's foray to Detroit was a wise move even though the usual suspect slammed him.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your platform as the leader of the Republican Party does not speak to a civil rights agenda. You are talking about civil rights when you are engaged in civil wrongs to the degree that your party doesn't speak to it, you have never spoken to it, and we don't know who Donald Trump really is.

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O'REILLY: Now, it's almost amusing that Reverend Anthony excoriates the Republican Party's racial policies when the Democrats have allowed the city of Detroit, his city to be destroyed. Right before his own eyes. Politics trumping reality, pardon the pun, once again. Talking Points well understands that Donald Trump will have to overwhelmingly win the white vote to have any chance at being president. And last week's immigration and race story lines might have helped him. New CNN poll out today has Trump leading Hillary Clinton 49 to 48.

When you factor in the other two alternative candidates, Trump wins 45 to 43. That's a big turnaround for mid-August. It was driven, according to CNN, by 90 percent of Republican voters now supporting Trump. Ninety percent. The "L.A. Times" daily tracking poll has the race tied. Trump 44, Clinton 44. NBC News has Clinton 48, Trump 42. In a four way race, Clinton 41, Trump 37. So, again, Trump is making some progress or so the polls say. But it all comes down to electoral votes.

And here Donald Trump has some difficulty. Hillary Clinton is competing in states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Those states usually both Republicans. Donald Trump needs to win those three, Florida, Ohio, and either Pennsylvania or Michigan to even be competitive in the Electoral College. That will not be easy. So summing up, Trump's tough stance on immigration looks to be a winner for him at this point. And the race deal is primarily symbolic. Blacks will vote for Mrs. Clinton.

But with the debate coming up in less than three weeks. Trump still has a fighting chance. And that's “The Memo”.