Friday, October 23, 2009

"The news that the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program have produced a draft agreement — okayed "in principle" by the Iranians, as well as the Western powers — puts a happy face on a crisis that, in reality, shows no signs of abating.......

Israel’s campaign to keep Iran from going nuclear is all about maintaining its own nuclear monopoly in the Middle East, as the Iranians pointed out at a secret conference held in Cairo, under the auspices of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament (ICNND), at which both Israeli and Iranian delegates were present. Ha’aretz reports........

The negotiations with Tehran, while a good sign, are likely to run into more than one unforeseen obstacle — including the very powerful Israel lobby. The Lobby’s influence in President Obama’s own party, and its ability to outflank any peace proposals in the US Congress — which is already considering at least one major new sanctions bill — is the main roadblock to peace in the Middle East.

No matter how good the intentions of President Obama, and in spite of his attempts to avoid war with Iran — which would push oil prices beyond the breaking point and plunge our economy into chaos — in the end a military conflict with Iran may be unavoidable. The recent success of the engagement process buys the peace movement valuable time, however, if the agreement goes through without a hitch — and that is reason for restrained optimism. Is far too early, however, to break out the champagne. "