Sandy to hit fourth-quarter GDP, but rebound coming: Waxman

Superstorm Sandy is destined to be a blot on the nations fourth-quarter economic growth, but it has changed the game for the start of 2013 and could lead to stronger growth than economists otherwise expect, said Jordan Waxman, managing director of HighTower Advisors in New York.

Appearing on MoneyLife with Chuck Jaffe, Waxman said that there was already a bit of a tailwind starting to help the economy, and that while the storm will take away some of that strength, it has the economy better positioned for a rebound.

“There is usually a short-term economic hit to GDP, and considering there were a dozen states that were affected here that should be about a half-percent off GDP for this quarter,” Waxman said. “What you have seen also is that energy demand has fallen; it wasn’t a supply disruption on the East Coast but more demand destruction … and work hours were lost … and all three of those things are elements that go into the GDP forecast.

“But longer term, there’s a rebuilding effect, and whether that’s a war or a catastrophe it has a positive impact on construction, materials, energy infrastructure and retail, and I think the snap-back this time is going to be higher than the hit to GDP in the fourth quarter,” Waxman said. “You could see a nice snap-back in the first half of 2013 in the GDP estimates going around the research houses, and that is long-term bullish for stocks.”

Further, Waxman noted that “What’s good for rebuilding the economy is bad for bonds, and good for stocks,” and said that investors should adjust portfolios that way. “And already, bonds are expensive4 and stocks are cheap, so we are continuing to reallocate assets to stocks.”

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