WASHINGTON — The final price tag on the bruising 2012 election is likely to hit a record $7 billion, according to a new estimate from the federal government's top election regulator. That puts political spending on par with the $6.9 billion that the National Retail Federation estimates that Americans spent on Christmas, Hanukkah and Kwanzaa decorations during last year's holiday season.

Presidential and congressional candidates will have spent the most — about $3.2 billion, according to the projection by Federal Election Commission chairwoman Ellen Weintraub. For the first time, it appears that spending by political action committees and other outside groups will exceed that of political parties, boosted by new super PACs that can spend raise and spend unlimited amounts from corporations, wealthy individuals and unions as long as the operate independently of candidates and parties.

Weintraub pegs super PAC spending at $950 million during last year's election, the first presidential contest in which super PACs have played a role. Other outside groups, many of which are tax-exempt organizations that don't reveal their donors, spent more than $300 million to sway federal races.

"This shows in stark terms that the balance of power is shifting away from candidates and parties," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks political money.

As a result, Krumholz expects an explosion of candidate-aligned super PACs that will raise and spend more than the candidates themselves. The congressional midterm elections are nearly two years away, and 54 super PACs tied to House and Senate candidates already have been launched.

They account for more than one in five of the 256 active super PACs tracked by Krumholz's group.

Opponents of campaign-finance limits, such as Indiana lawyer Jim Bopp, say it's time to dismantle contribution limits to candidates and parties. Currently, individuals cannot donate more than $2,600 to a federal candidate for a primary or general election, under updated contributions limits released this week by the FEC.

"That's the only solution," said Bopp, who helped launch the 2010 Citizens United case before the U.S. Supreme Court that helped pave the way for these new groups. "There's an increasing recognition that candidates and political parties are becoming bit players because they can't compete," he said.

Weintraub's estimate came as candidates and super PACs filed their year-end reports, providing a final accounting of their activities.

President Obama and the Democratic National Committee ended his successful re-election campaign with a combined $27.2 million in debt. The Republican National Committee, which entered the 2012 election cycle hobbled by more than $20 million in unpaid bills, started 2013 debt-free.

Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney's campaign had nearly $826,000 in unpaid bills, and officials there spent more than $17 million in the final weeks of the year, winding down the political operation. The Romney campaign made a nearly $90,000 donation to the American Red Cross on Nov. 30 — just weeks after Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, causing severe damage.