Monday, January 24, 2011

Of all the storylines from this college basketball season, the biggest has to be the parity that has spread like crazy throughout the sport. Not only are there no truly dominant teams this season (sorry, Buckeye fans), road wins have become an endangered species, and two-win weeks have become cause for celebration. This parity has been great for fans across the country - anyone can beat anyone on any given night - and it's certainly made for some wild and unpredictable results. It's also made predicting the field, especially around the bubble, harder than ever before.

How hard? On Saturday and Sunday alone, 12 teams that we had on the 8-13 lines last week all lost games. For six of those teams, it was their second loss of the week. Four of those teams lost to inferior conference opponents at home. These results left us with a long list of teams that deserved to be removed from our Field of 68 - and, unfortunately, a way-too-short list of teams that were worthy of replacing them. In any other year, teams like Gonzaga, ODU, Butler, and Wichita State would be on the outside looking in right now. But with three extra bids to give out and parity abound in almost every conference, those teams are still hanging on to their spots in the bracket.

When the dust settled, we ended up taking five teams out of last week's bracket (UCF, Kansas State, Miami, Colorado, and Southern Miss), and replacing them with UCLA, Richmond, Memphis, VCU, and Oklahoma State. The big winners in the shake-up were the Pac-10 (which is now a four-bid league for the first time all season), the A-10 (now a three-bid league), and the Colonial (now a two-bid league with VCU in as the auto bid and ODU clinging to an at-large). The biggest losers were the Big XII and C-USA, both of which are suffering from the same issue - their bubble teams can't seem to get out of their own way. In the Big XII, Kansas State has lost four of five, Oklahoma State has lost three of four, Colorado suddenly can't beat the league's bottom feeders, and Baylor has no big wins and terrible computer numbers. We decided to give the fifth, and for the moment final, Big XII bid to Oklahoma State over Baylor, despite the Cowboys' loss to the Bears on Saturday, because of their easier upcoming schedule and their significantly better RPI (37 vs. 88). Baylor's upcoming schedule was too difficult (three of their next four are on the road) to give the Big XII a sixth bid. Memphis, meanwhile, has emerged as the team to beat in what has quickly become a cluttered C-USA. The conference is probably better than a one-bid league, but its problem is that UCF and Marshall (the only teams other than Memphis with quality OOC wins) are buried in the conference standings. Until that changes, or until a UAB or a UTEP pulls away from the pack, Memphis will be in the bracket as the lone C-USA representative.

Elsewhere in the bracket, there were significant changes along the 1-3 lines as well. Pittsburgh jumped up to the 1 line thanks to their win over Syracuse, Texas moved up to a 2 after their wins against Texas A&M and Kansas, and Villanova went up to a 2 after winning at the Carrier Dome. A two-loss week knocked the Orange down to the top of the 3 line. Other notable upgrades included Florida State (from a 9 to a 6) and Xavier (from a 12 to an 8). The most notable downgrades were St. John's (from a 7 to a 10) and Gonzaga (from an 8 to a 12). We had to make one change to avoid seeding conflicts this week - Michigan State and Tennessee swapped spots on the 7 and 8 lines.

Thanks for trying to figure things out, but there is so much B-Ball to be played. I think that if Purdue can shoot well, they have a chance Tuesday in Columbus as they beat them there last year (but with Hummel) When do you think the Bucks will lose?

I'm surprised you still have Dayton this close to a bid. I think the other team to watch in the A-10 is Duquesne. They've already beaten Temple, and they get Dayton at home later this week. There's a pretty reasonable chance they win the league (Pomeroy and rpiforecast both project them going 14-2 in the league), how close are they to a bid?

As another FSU fan, I'd like to mirror what the previous poster said. I've been coming to this site for 4 years or so now, and I've always found it to be the best: not only for predicting the field, but also for breaking down all the results. Thanks for your hard work!

We have a feeling Ohio State's first loss is coming at Minnesota next weekend.

Penn State would probably sneak in with a 2-0 week, but we'd still be worried about their long-term future in the bracket. They already have eight losses (four in conference) and they have five very tough road games left on their schedule. They also have home dates left with Minnesota and Ohio State.

We're just not sold on Duquesne right now, and we would bet lots of money they don't finish 14-2 in conference. The Dukes didn't do anything OOC, their RPI is 90, and although they did beat Temple, their other four A-10 wins are all against teams with sub-.500 records. If they beat Dayton this week, we might have to re-evaluate our position. Until then, we think the more experienced Flyers have a better chance at a bid going forward.

To the FSU fans - thanks for the kind words. Keep the questions coming. We love the back-and-forth we have every year with 'Noles fans. It wouldn't be a college basketball season without it.

"I've been coming to this site for 4 years or so now, and I've always found it to be the best: not only for predicting the field, but also for breaking down all the results. Thanks for your hard work!"

Couldn't have said it better myself....you guys are pretty damn good at what you do.

That being said, with the Horizon being "down" this season...I don't know why everyone is still on Butler to take the Horizon as I feel it could be anyone's title in this conference. I would have to say that the bid will come down to whoever wins the Horizon tourney at the end of the season will be going to the big dance.

Weird things are happening again this year in college hoops, as parity seems to be on the rise. Illinois Chicago beating a top 15 team way back in December and is now playing 0 - 8 in their conference? Really?

This weekend alone, Butler and Valpo losing at home against inferior conference foes?

No matter how weak the bracket gets, Belmont and Coastal Carolina aren't getting at-large bids. Belmont's 12 seed max is based on them winning the Atlantic Sun tourney. Coastal Carolina's best case scenario would probably be a 12 as well.

Utah State could probably get as high as a 10 seed, which is where we have the Aggies at this week. They are in a better position than Belmont and Coastal Carolina because the WAC is slightly higher ranked than the Atlantic Sun and Big South. Utah State also has an RPI edge over the other two teams - Utah State's at 43, Coastal is 68, and Belmont is 70.

No disrespect to Mike Anderson, but he's done a better job than Leonard Hamilton has this season? As Davis points out himself, Missouri was a Top 15 team to start the year, and that's exactly where they are right now. Shouldn't a Coach of the Year candidate exceed expectations at least a little bit?

Those computer numbers are nice, but you conveniently left out Penn State's lack of an OOC resume and the fact that they have eight losses already. If the Nittany Lions are going to get an at-large, they'll have to finish at least 10-8 in conference.

Just a couple quick questions. If BYU can take down SDSU in Provo tomorrow and beat New Mexico in the Pit Saturday where will they land in next week's bracket? What is their ceiling come March? In regard to Utah State it is likely they will finish Wac play undefeated but what if they lose in the Bracketbuster and then again in the conference tourney are they safely in? They would most likely still be without a single top 100 win.

BYU will be a 2 seed next week if they beat SDSU and New Mexico. That's probaly their ceiling come March, but if they didn't lose a game the rest of the way, they'd have an outside chance at a 1 seed.

Even if they went undefeated in conference, Utah State would be in a lot of trouble if they lost their BracketBuster game and then lost in the WAC tourney. They'd be one of the most debated bubble teams, but their lack of Top 100 wins would be tough to overlook.

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