posted at 4:43 pm on October 25, 2012 by Allahpundit

Romney could, in theory, replace Virginia’s 13 electoral votes by winning Wisconsin (10) and New Hampshire (4), but Wisconsin and New Hampshire are supposed to be Plan B in case he loses Ohio. If he loses Virginia, then there is no Plan B: Realistically, his only path would be through Ohio. And if VA goes the wrong way, that makes a clean sweep of OH, WI, and NH seem highly unlikely.

Fortunately, Virginia’s tilting the right way — barely. Romney’s led in seven of the nine polls taken there since the first debate, including each of the last five. If he comes through here and in Florida, where he’s led in 12 of the last 14 polls, then he’s got 248 EVs in the bank (by RCP’s estimate) with Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire all on the radar. The latest from Rasmussen:

Last week, Romney hit the 50% mark for the first time here, while Obama earned 47% of the vote. With the exception of last week, however, the candidates have been within two points or less of each other in every survey in Virginia since April…

Ninety-two percent (92%) of the state’s voters now say they’ve made up their minds whom they will vote for. That’s up four points from last week. Romney leads 52% to 48% among these voters.

Virginia voters trust Romney more than the president by a 51% to 46% margin when it comes to handling the economy. This is unchanged from a week ago. When it comes to national security and energy policy, it’s a near tie, with Romney posting a one-point edge over Obama in terms of voter trust on both issues. These findings are comparable to voter attitudes nationally.

Ras also has a new poll of Pennsylvania today: Obama by five, with over 50 percent of the vote. Between that and Jon Ralston’s arguments for why O’s early-voting advantage in Nevada will be tough (but not impossible) to overcome, it looks for the moment like Iowa is the most plausible candidate among the supposed “Obama states” to surprise everyone on election night. Of the last five polls taken there, Obama leads in two, Romney leads in one, and two more are tied. And Romney’s giving the state plenty of attention: Remember, his big economic speech tomorrow will be delivered in Ames. If New Hampshire falls through, Iowa could replace it. Imagine The One winning squeakers in NH and Ohio but losing the presidency anyway as Iowa and Wisconsin come through for Romney. Awesome.

Just one little hitch in all of this via Brendan Loy: What if Hurricane Sandy kinda sorta destroys the eastern United States next week?

I spoke this morning with my father, a retired elections bureaucrat in Connecticut, and he made the excellent point that the week before the election is a very busy for folks like him in his old job, and for registrars of voters, town clerks and the like. They’re testing voting machines, printing ballots or other critical papers, and doing all sorts of other mundane tasks that are critical to assuring a smooth Election Day. If the impact of the storm wipes out all or part of that critical “prep week,” then even if things are relatively “back to normal” by Election Day (by no means a given; see below), there would likely be an invisible storm impact in the form of additional chaos, “irregularities” and all manner of disruptions at the polls — failed voting machines, missing ballots, etc. — simply because the officials had to cut short their preparation, so more mistakes will inevitably happen…

Sandy is by no means equivalent to Katrina, but it could certainly lead to evacuation orders this weekend for coastal and flood-prone areas in its target zone, and it’s conceivable that those evacuation orders might not be lifted for some time after the storm if power outages, downed trees and power lines, inland flooding, etc. create a witch’s brew of unsafe conditions in the affected areas. If those areas happen to be located in a swing state, or a state with a major Senate race, it is easy to imagine decisions about when to lift evacuation orders becoming intensely politicized.

A nightmare scenario for Democrats would be an evacuation of portions of Philadelphia, which would not only endanger Bob Casey, but would take a state that Obama seems likely to win unless he’s losing swing states across the board (and thus the PA outcome doesn’t really matter), and turn it into a potentially decisive tipping-point state that could hand Romney the presidency even if he loses Ohio and most of the other swing states.

Loy also wonders what’ll happen if the power is still down in various polling places along the eastern seaboard on election day. One word, my friends: Thunderdome. Actually, two more words: Traffic goldmine. I won’t benefit since, as a New Yorker, I’ll apparently be underwater by then, but it’s nice to know that Ed, MKH, and Erika will have weeks of content from the unholy legal and political clusterfark in the aftermath.

Via the Daily Caller, here’s Ed Rendell putting the fear of God into Pennsylvania Democrats who are considering not voting this year.

Blowback

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Update: Corroborating evidence: Fox also has Romney by two in Virginia, a nine-point swing since last month. Has any candidate ever helped himself as much at a debate as Romney did in that first one?

More good news for Romney. More bad news for Obama.

The Romney surge continues, while Obama’s erosion of voter support shows no sign of stopping. Independent voters and women increasingly move to Romney.

The Obama campaign has conducted itself in a disgraceful manner, especially in recent weeks, and it is only fitting that Obama should end his political career on a very low point. It couldn’t have happened to a nicer person.

I have a question and no thread to ask it on. So…I’ll ask here. Why was Ryan in the ATL. yesterday? Georgia is a lock for the Republican ticket. So why send Ryan here? Wouldn’t he be utilized better in a battleground state?

I didn’t intend to get all righteously indignant. I only spoke up because the thread appeared to be spiraling into speculation over Messina’s pederastic tendencies based on his appearance. I’d prefer to keep the debate on the merits, and I’m not a fan of demonization of political opponents – from either side.

Apparently there is a new Connecticut poll from Mason-Dixon that shows Obama below 50%, 49-42. McMahon and Murphy tied at 44.

Mark1971 on October 25, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Don’t expect a Romney win there, of course, but McMahon’s got a very strong chance to pull the upset. If she and Smith in Pennsylvania pull off a couple of miracles, Mourdock’s race-ending idiocy (the Indiana press is carpetbombing this, folks) and Akin’s on-screen immolation may not be fatal to the junk-Obamacare effort.

If that happens, I want some people to think very long and very hard about putting their eggs in the conservative basket. Akin and Mourdock, if they lose, would make five five FIVE! True Conservative candidates in two cycles to throw away eminently winnable races.

Has there been anything new on the machines that switched people vote to Obama? I hope to God someone is investigating this. Because I find it literally impossible for this to happen, unless its intentional. You cant tell me that there is no way they can have these voting machines to not have safeguards where if it senses a fault or malfunction that it goes into alarm/shuts down.

If indeed, these machines are screwing up like this, they all need to be shut down and taken out of service. No way does something like this take your input, and come out with something else. Its like pressing the “R” key on your computer or your smart phone, and then letter “O” comes up. This needs to be investigated. You see the headline and they say its a calibration issue and people accept that?

Im telling you, there is something fishy about this and while Im not a big conspiracy guy, I find this literally impossible to happen unless it’s intentional.

Ya, I was kind of surprised RCP had it back as a swing state. I have a friend in NC and she said the same thing–that enthusiasm is for Romney.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

RCP average has Romney at +5. Apparently that is a tossup….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

I just saw that. I don’t get it either. I think I’m going to do myself (and my sanity) a favor and ignore the polls. I’m going to believe what I’m seeing with my eyes. The turnouts that Romney/Ryan are having everywhere they go. The enthusiasm that wasn’t there in ’08 for McCain.

I’ll keep saying what I’ve been saying. Pollsters and the MSM are going to keep Ohio ‘close’ to the bitter end. As Ohio goes, so does the election and everyone knows it. If they show Obama losing there, then a close race becomes a landslide for Romney between now and then. A self-fulfilling prophecy and they can’t have that.

But, c’mon…that pic. Didn’t Messina think to run that pic in front of anybody before he uploaded?

cozmo on October 25, 2012 at 6:31 PM

I agree that the pic is… cringe-inducing. But then Messina just ain’t much of a looker to begin with. He was born with that face, and it’s not his fault if he was beaten upside the head with the ugly stick. My initial response was to laugh at the meme that cropped up, but when I shared it with my wife, she didn’t find it remotely funny. She thought it was disgusting and inappropriate.

Ya, I was kind of surprised RCP had it back as a swing state. I have a friend in NC and she said the same thing–that enthusiasm is for Romney.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 6:15 PM

RCP average has Romney at +5. Apparently that is a tossup….

oldroy on October 25, 2012 at 6:20 PM

I just saw that. I don’t get it either. I think I’m going to do myself (and my sanity) a favor and ignore the polls. I’m going to believe what I’m seeing with my eyes. The turnouts that Romney/Ryan are having everywhere they go. The enthusiasm that wasn’t there in ’08 for McCain.

JennM111 on October 25, 2012 at 6:31 PM

It’s back there because Piss Poor Polling threw a junker out there showing it tied and by “coincidence” it happened to be just enough to shift the average back in tossup range.

Sure is easy to shift the polling average when most pollsters see the state as too far gone to bother polling there, isn’t it?

The greedy SEIU has been given the contract to maintain and deploy the electronic voting machines in Nevada. Unless the economy in Nevada gets so bad that the SEIU goons themselves r-word against the democratics, it makes Nevada a tough nut to crack for Governor Romney. Ditto the US Senate race there.

Should [Romney's 19 point lead with independents] stick, it would be the sharpest tilt among independents in a presidential election since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide win.
Landslide? Did WaPo/ABC just say “landslide” in relation to the upcoming election? Oh, my…

Makes sense. But why raise money that won’t be spent? Besides the money raised here at 25 k a plate is money that could have been raised without him even attending. It sure did piss off a whole lot of folks down this way. Scheduling it for rush hour not good if you have ever been here for rush hour you understand.

New Poll up showing Romney at 50% in ABC poll. Time to all move over there. I will say this: 2012 is turning out to be a much more enjoyable year than 2008. I remember the utter despair that began to creep in in October of that year as the impending defeat became daily more obvious. Come to think of it, that’s probably how Obama and his supporters feel now.

Flooding, roads blocked by trees, power outages can take a LONG time to be straightened out, which could deter the voters, or render machines inoperable… etc.

pambi

Another thing about the hurricane….it gives the media an opportunity to remind voters how republicans killed black people during hurricane katrina while showing how much better hurricanes are handled by democrats.

I’ll keep saying what I’ve been saying. Pollsters and the MSM are going to keep Ohio ‘close’ to the bitter end. As Ohio goes, so does the election and everyone knows it. If they show Obama losing there, then a close race becomes a landslide for Romney between now and then. A self-fulfilling prophecy and they can’t have that.

Corporal Tunnel on October 25, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Ding, ding, ding, we have a winnah!

I recall reading at National Review that the campaigns lobby pollsters to take use their assumptions when weighting polls. For Obama that would be D +8 electorate and sky high youth and black turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohio is the last state they are fully going along with Obama since yes, if he is shown to be firmly behind now in Ohio then it’s over. Can’t have that.

I seriously cannot believe how uninformed and lacking in core beliefs so many voters can be. Seriously, how can 10% of voters flutter between these two candidates based on a few debates? I mean, don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they did. But it just seems kind of unreal that so many people could be so lacking in information, so void of political beliefs, that they would render their verdict on who should be our next leader based on a 90-minute performance. If you’re really undecided after four years of O’s presidency, I hope you get out and vote for Romney, but seriously, why are you even voting?

Luntz NEVER said that Ohio was gone and Rush wasn’t depressed. Instead of getting your talking points from Axelfraud and John Wayne Messina, maybe, you should actually listen.

Resist We Much on October 25, 2012 at 5:35 PM

I heard Luntz, too. And he NEVER said Zero was going to take OH and WI. NEVER said that. And Rush today took a call from a woman from Texas who has gone to VA to campaign for Romney and she was sort of chastising Rush for being “too optimistic.” She was worried that Romney optimism will depress the Romney vote on election day. Rush just said, “Sorry. I’m optimistic. Can’t help it.”

When O-bots like poke-me have to LIE like he always does, what does that tell one about where he really believes the state of the race is. And I happen to think that guy is a paid OFA useful idiot, so he has probably seen Zero’s campaign melting down for two weeks now.

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

He didn’t say O was going to take them, but he wasn’t exactly positive sounding about Romney having much of a chance. He did say he thought Obama would win (and Romney would get the popular vote) .

I think that was the final straw that sucked my optimism *today*. I should have turned off the radio after “Gina” called Rush about seeing Romney at Red Rocks. :) She was awesome.

I can easily see Obama winning by a 270-268 EV margin. He would lose CO, NH and IA, but win WI and NV.

Yeah. Let me tell you something, Sparky. I actually live in Wisconsin and this state isn’t going to swing Obama’s way. You seem to forget that the electorate came out strong not once, but twice, to vote for Governor Scott Walker, despite your proclamations to the contrary that they wouldn’t.

I live in Northeast Wisconsin and the Romney/Ryan signs are outnumbering Obama/Biden signs 10 to 1. In fact, about the only Obama/Biden paraphernalia I see are 2008 bumper stickers on piece of crap cars that the libs driving them were too lazy to scrape off.

New Poll up showing Romney at 50% in ABC poll. Time to all move over there. I will say this: 2012 is turning out to be a much more enjoyable year than 2008. I remember the utter despair that began to creep in in October of that year as the impending defeat became daily more obvious. Come to think of it, that’s probably how Obama and his supporters feel now.
Longing4Lincoln on October 25, 2012 at 6:45 PM

I agree. Things are much, much better for us now than they were at this point in 2008. And the best is still to come. It will be great to see Obama give his final wave goodbye in just a few months.

So, I can only guess that the reason Romney is in Nevada instead of Wisconsin is because he is trying to woo undecideds while banking on astronomical Mormon turnout to neutralize the SEIU’s organization in Clarke County. Otherwise, I can’t imagine why he would be spending time there instead of Wisconsin (where the state GOP has flexed its tremendous GOTV muscle multiple times in the last two years).

It’s back there because Piss Poor Polling threw a junker out there showing it tied and by “coincidence” it happened to be just enough to shift the average back in tossup range.

Sure is easy to shift the polling average when most pollsters see the state as too far gone to bother polling there, isn’t it?

Gingotts on October 25, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Well, I guess RCP is only as good as the polls they are figuring in.

It even occurred to me today that to some extent certain radio shows are claiming the race is all tied up–closest race ever–to keep people tuning in. Hannity seems to be doing that lately. Rush, not so much.

I’ll keep saying what I’ve been saying. Pollsters and the MSM are going to keep Ohio ‘close’ to the bitter end. As Ohio goes, so does the election and everyone knows it. If they show Obama losing there, then a close race becomes a landslide for Romney between now and then. A self-fulfilling prophecy and they can’t have that.

Corporal Tunnel on October 25, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Well said. They want to make it look close because that’s good for little Bammie and good for the news business.

Donees who have maxed out contributions to R-R can still donate a lot more to the national party, to individual congressional races, and to state parties. To the extent that this money is used on GOTV efforts and swing-state ads attacking Obama, it frees up Mitt to spend campaign funds on ads promoting his candidacy. That is the purpose of these fundraisers.

If Obama ends up losing this “”he”” will have ended up losing it. In other words, it wasn’t Biden. It wasn’t the money people. It wasn’t the media who were in the tank with him. It was the pathetic arrogant loser who thought he could continue to coast to victory. His laziness and arrogance will be to blame. His debate cost them 3-5 points. How sweet would that be.

When O-bots like poke-me have to LIE like he always does, what does that tell one about where he really believes the state of the race is. And I happen to think that guy is a paid OFA useful idiot, so he has probably seen Zero’s campaign melting down for two weeks now.

Rational Thought on October 25, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Remember when they hired people to monitor blogs and comments? Good luck looking that up now.

Lol! Evening Flora! Yes I suppose that’s true. Ga. is a lovely shade of red, getting lovelier with each passing day. ; ) I worry more about your neck of the woods and OH., PA., WI., MI., etc. heIIfire VA. for that matter.

This stuff isn’t cute. Obama rammed through a law that violates the founding American principle of freedom of conscience. There is no “war on women,” but there is a war on Christian faith and traditional values, and Obama is leading that war.

Over in the edgier aspects of the campaign, out in the super PAC weeds that Obama once disavowed, the president’s super PAC is going nuclear with an ad that calls Mitt Romney a traitor. . .

This is a campaign that knows it is losing, and that it is also threatened by a major scandal that has grown far more important to the fate of the nation than Watergate ever was.

It looks like the announcement of the controversial move to discontinue TRICARE Prime for military members and their families in certain states, though, will wait until after Election Day.

As first reported by Military Times, starting April 1 TRICARE Prime services would be offered only to those living within 40 miles of a Military Treatment Facility as a result of the incoming contractor, United Healthcare, not planning on covering the services.

This would affect as many as 30,000 veterans and their families in Nevada, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri. While those outside of an acceptable distance from an MTF wouldn’t lose coverage, they would be reduced to the standard plan that carries higher out-of-pocket costs.

Yes, I get that part. Its the time left part that doesn’t add up. I guess these events were scheduled many moons ago. Probably why traffic was clogged. You weren’t stuck in it were you?

Bmore on October 25, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Haha, nope. I now live and work in the Atlanta suburbs, blissfully free from the daily hell that is was commuting on I-285. I was laughing my ass off and sipping a Budweiser on my porch as I listened to the traffic reports last night.

I think we have been having elections since before there was electricity. Liberals may not be happy but the Republic will survive.

dentalque on October 25, 2012 at 7:22 PM

The real result of a bad storm just before an election is a whole lot of people get to see just how competent FEMA is and just how stable the infrastructure is that Barry blew nearly $1 trillion on with ‘shovel ready jobs’.

This would be a welcome event… let actual voters see just what happens when you entrust the federal government with such things.

If that happens, I want some people to think very long and very hard about putting their eggs in the conservative basket. Akin and Mourdock, if they lose, would make five five FIVE! True Conservative candidates in two cycles to throw away eminently winnable races.

KingGold on October 25, 2012 at 6:30 PM

You know, all 5 of those candidates won their primaries. That doesn’t speak well for the mushy middle candidates you want so desperately to make us vote for.

I look forward with glee to the post-election revelation that the entire body of Fox News Polling results over-samples Democrats by something stupid like 3-4%. This will provide ammunition to mock the imbecile left and the buffoons at Fox News with equal vigor.

BTW, even though it appeared to be an outlier, the Susquehanna poll of PA that showed Romney up by 4 (49-45) has disappeared from RCP’s list. But they DO include today’s PPP NC poll with a D+9 sample. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

After the first debate and until the second debate, you could sense the growing confidence among Republicans. But you can sense the fatalism/pessimism/realism sinking in now when the state polls really haven’t moved much, and in Ohio’s case, didn’t move at all.