<b><center>Mark Appel
Righthanded pitcher
Stanford</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> The Houston native has a prototype body and a fastball that lives in the 90s, and there are few questions about his competition.
<b>Downside:</b> One never knows how Appel adviser Scott Boras may try to work the new draft rules to his advantage. On the field, Appel hasn't always dominated even with great stuff. less

<b><center>Mark Appel
Righthanded pitcher
Stanford</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> The Houston native has a prototype body and a fastball that lives in the 90s, and there are few questions about his ... more

Photo: Francis Specker / Associated Press

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<b><center>Byron Buxton
Outfielder
Appling County (Ga.), HS</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> Almost unparalleled athleticism is what has tickled the Astros. He could grow to adulthood with a mix of power and speed that would make him a star.
<b>Downside:</b> He comes from a town of 4,400, and there are obvious questions about his competition. Also, the road map from high school to the majors has many more twists than from college. less

<b><center>Byron Buxton
Outfielder
Appling County (Ga.), HS</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> Almost unparalleled athleticism is what has tickled the Astros. He could grow to adulthood with a mix of power and ... more

Photo: Mike James / Associated Press

Image 3 of 5

<b><center>Kevin Gausman
Righthanded pitcher
Louisiana State</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> A conventional righty with a good body and mid-90s fastball. While he has a higher ERA than Appel, performance is hardly an end-all, and his higher strikeouts per nine innings is encouraging.
<b>Downside:</b> Gausman is a draft-eligible sophomore. Despite the new spending caps, those players tend to have more leverage since they can come out next year as a junior. less

<b><center>Kevin Gausman
Righthanded pitcher
Louisiana State</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> A conventional righty with a good body and mid-90s fastball. While he has a higher ERA than Appel, performance is ... more

Photo: Jeff Blake / The State

Image 4 of 5

<b><center>Mike Zunino
Catcher
Florida</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> When you have a good bat at a premium defensive position, you have to be curious. And if the Astros truly stick to the best player available, they ignore the fact that they already have a first-round catcher.
<b>Downside:</b> This isn't picking an 18-year-old Jiovanni Mier when Miguel Tejada is on his last legs in Houston. This is picking a much more polished player at a position where the Astros have a 24-year-old top pick. less

<b><center>Mike Zunino
Catcher
Florida</b></center>
<b>Upside:</b> When you have a good bat at a premium defensive position, you have to be curious. And if the Astros truly stick to the best player ... more

Photo: Dave Martin / Associated Press

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Astros' big draft question: Who's No. 1?

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To say the Astros brass will be sitting down with a coterie of scouts and making a $7 million decision this week is probably an oversimplification.

Much of the due diligence on the team’s first No. 1 overall draft pick in 20 years has been done. Assistant general manager of scouting Bobby Heck has seen every prospective top pick multiple times. Area scouts, regional supervisors, cross-checker David Post, general manager Jeff Luhnow and special assistant Mike Elias have made the rounds as well.

With the first pick in the 2012 draft …

Hold on a second, the Astros say. They insist they haven’t made a final decision on the top pick for the June 4 draft, but that it will be finalized after five days of meetings, in which the team will weigh talent and financial considerations, many of which don’t materialize until late.

The Astros are being understandably coy, but a small consensus of competing scouts and executives interviewed places the spotlight on Stanford pitcher Mark Appel, Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, LSU pitcher Kevin Gausman and Florida catcher Mike Zunino.

Other potential high picks include Puerto Rican infielder Carlos Correa, University of San Francisco pitcher Kyle Zimmer, California high school lefthander Max Fried and Texas A&M righthander Michael Wacha.

This might not be the best year to have the No. 1 overall pick, since this year’s crop of high school and college talent is considered down and without an obvious standout player. In other words, no Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper.

Playing allocation game

But it certainly is an interesting year with the new rules the Astros are following as they prepare to anoint the successor to Floyd Bannister and Phil Nevin as the club’s only No. 1 overall picks.

Each slot in the first 10 rounds (11 picks for the Astros) is assigned a value, and a team can spend the sum of all of those values for slots where the player actually signs. For the Astros, whose first pick is valued at $7.2 million, their pool is $11.2 million, according to Baseball America.

Penalties for going over budget — which can be done “accidentally” should a team envision going under slot on a player who doesn’t sign — include severe financial levies and forfeiture of future picks.

The Astros say they will not be going over budget, but that doesn’t prevent them from going over on one pick. Or going under in the case of the No. 1 pick.

“We don’t feel like we’re beholden to it one way or the other,” Luhnow said. “You’ll probably see some teams — and I don’t know if we’ll be one of them — be creative about how they use their allocation.”

Luhnow said teams at the top could go under slot for their first pick. Finding a No. 1 pick who would sign for less than the $7.2 million would allow the Astros to take a player who falls because of signability concerns at No. 41, No. 61 or beyond and pay him enough to keep him from opting for college.

But the money is there, owner Jim Crane promised, to use on the No. 1 selection.

“We’ve got the full amount allocated in our budget to spend as much as we need to on the slots,” said Crane, who came in with plans to beef up the minor league talent pool only to face restrictions in the draft and international market as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement. “The first pick’s 7 million bucks, and we’re fully allocated all the way through the drafting process to spend as much as we need.”

Getting their man

Heck has put in about 40 percent of his time following potential No. 1 picks and 60 percent on the rest of the 40-round draft. The Astros also have a supplemental first-round pick at No. 41 overall (compensation for losing Clint Barmes) and start the second round at No. 61 overall.

While there is more pressure with the No. 1 pick, it requires fewer players on the radar since there is no uncertainty involved with anything happening above them.

The Astros, as they love to say, will get their man. Presumably, he’ll be Crane’s first big investment and the first major move for an operations staff that was compiled mostly for this purpose.