Why the Fiscal Cliff Is Bullish for Stocks

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

... is the dominating headlines you talking about here been reading about it ... he sees the stock market stock market rises and pledged every word that comes out of Washington politicians mouths ... everyone assumes that the fiscal cliff a very bad for stocks rate ... maybe not maybe the fiscal cliff is good is bullish for stocks that Bush has talked ... the talk about the right now Michael guy who's chief investment strategist ... at Pension Partners ... you'll colony right for of MarketWatch's Trading Deck Clayton ... Polish bullish the fiscal cliff on one he explained ... let's think about where we are now in the bond market we have the yields under the Fed's inflation target of two percent so that means that if you're in ... a bind hold investor in bonds ... it isn't guaranteed to lose money in terms of how much are you spend ... going forward ... that would yield this low ... stock in terms of inflation data just different lake aren't going to write how much it meant that are cheaper ... now ... on a comparative basis stocks yield more than ... that if you have the fiscal cliff in some way shape or form come to pass through which is essentially ... some tonnage of tax increases plus some spending cuts austere ... within the implication of that spending cuts makes the government the shoeless ... decks of a supply of Treasury issuance is ... shrinks from the current pace it's been a ... we know that that is the feast of the to buy from now on to condemn calmer ... do Kiwi three ... if you shrink the supply of debt ... demand is still there you'll continue to go down which means the bond only get more and more unattractive ... than fair to compare to stocks and any kind of a ... quilt will take a correction that's coming in stocks and ... becomes an instant buying opportunity this one we had this mini correction of me that's what we just had me correction which seems to have ended ... last week with is the Like formation ... effectively would happen is as bond yields go down the stock yields go all the dirt correction ... fiscal cliff makes ... volumes go down even further making stocks even more attractive ... and this is ... the TTT EP ten days of the nine national title you call that their paradox ... this is that with the Fed's trying to do is in its society said Mark Albers of publishing next Muppet weren't specific all this the primary because he had the gloom by doing the right or even well-known well-known financial surprise right is a very inching the person but you know the the the the main point that this is the Fed's let's hope the Fed wants the wealth for the Fed wants stock to rise housing to realize there for people to feel he'll return deal the driver ... still ... carry them to do that if ever one still free to take risk you have to be the correction techniques no wonder ... the magnitude ... and the resilience the SOX has to exist for people to want to take risk ... if we keep seeing that pattern ... money will we be forced to chase the P Chase more people fill the wealth effect that's the Fed's gamble to increase economic activity right so it's a meal and we just saw in November right in the November stocks went far down ... into P a critical level or riding on talking about technical levels ... then bounced back sharply Nancy as the Dow the Dow this morning ... go back over thirteen thousand the SNP is ... will that over fourteen hundred now ... these smaller correction that's when things really key cuz that's what gives investors the confidence that did not comment on the stock market is ten twenty thirty percent right ... isn't there a risk though ... that the longer those things build up along the you don't have ... that sort of claims in correction ... more on helping the market gets shortly we know the markets can be un healthy for long periods of timing it still be very treatable the only real concern and becomes ... the giver credit events ... central bank eerily like the prevents that from happening into listening repeat something of a depressing one onlooker watch ... and if you have given stiff cuts that would in Delhi summits and their parents the only problem ... is that when you've commies like Apple which have so much cash in the balance sheet ... they can we don't become slowing economic activity ... companies are very reluctant to cut back on dividends and have cash ... so wanna just keep the cash ... going out to them they'll causing the deal to stay with us ... now it's about the fiscal cliff itself I mean ... most people in the market think that there's going to be some kind of deal I think is going to some kind of deal with a permanent solution band aid whenever ... but again this is the other wrestlers firing up the risks are what is nothing to stop ... I mean we saw with that with the did the debt ceiling debate last summer when nothing gets done ... everything reverts back to spending cuts go in and that that that we'll camp on the economic growth comes to ... the SEO industry statistics you can spend even if we dig over the fiscal cliff is about ... roughly a hundred nine billion dollars the euro ... of spending cuts hundred nine billion dollars a year in the context of the SNP five hundred ... which has a market cap of fifteen trillion dollars in total ... is actually in really not that much I certainly understand the perception that it can cause Recession ... we view this low when the markets themselves the more stimulative ... and bigger than anything happens on the government side ... I question whether it actually to be as negative as people think it's going to be ... even if legal for ... them ... knowing about ... each of the wealth of the wealth effect that the Fed ... on ECB Min prime the pump this up for a long time heals on the ten year Treasury bond been below two percent for wanting ... to use this exact situation when Matt had been in place for a while ... haven't really seen a surge into the stock market Miata sleepy one that in the vines and very low ... on ... does this will affect ever really taken ... so I've been calling this next juncture in the fall was on the bill for making the seasonal calls ... will cause people to chase openly is when the headlines read down its new Will composites which ... I've been saying since late September following the corrective period ... would probably happen this year you see new all-time eyes ... peeled ... people love to chase pass prices moved within me that once you have sought to clear ... some of these you know ... all prior highs before the financial crisis hit ... people say OK now's a good time to invest on getting nothing much economic getting nothing in bonds ... and here I am entered riddles or at least the perception of rails making more money by investing ... in stocks ... write ... to Mike and I think very much appreciate the time ...