Sunday, May 14, 2017

Well, the "remarkable" poll in the Sunday Times did turn out to be an anti-climax, not for either of the reasons I speculated last night, but simply because it was a poll that had already been published and that we already knew about! It was a GB-wide Ashcroft poll, but the Sunday Times are reading huge significance into the results of the Scottish subsample, because "far more" Scottish respondents were interviewed than for a standard full-scale Scottish poll. That gives the entirely misleading impression that the results are more accurate than a full-scale Scottish poll, whereas in fact a properly weighted poll of 1000 people should be more accurate than an unweighted subsample of 3,500. In any case, even a weighted poll of 3,500 wouldn't be dramatically more accurate than a poll of 1000.

Even if you take them seriously, the Ashcroft numbers are already a couple of weeks out of date (they precede the local elections) and don't show anything radically different from what we've seen in the campaign so far. The SNP's lead is 11% - exactly the same as in the full-scale Panelbase poll.

So we still await the first Scottish poll since the local elections, and in the meantime all we can do is look at an average of the very small number of Scottish subsamples conducted over the last seven days, which suggests there hasn't been any further momentum for the Tories.

(The Poll of Polls for Westminster voting intentions uses the Scottish subsamples from all GB-wide polls that have been conducted entirely within the last seven days and for which datasets have been provided, and also all full-scale Scottish polls that have been conducted at least partly within the last seven days. Full-scale polls are given ten times the weighting of subsamples.)

Taking their potential votes, outwith the three constituencies they are standing in, may increase the pro independence vote. Unless their numbers are incredibly small, they can't be ignored. One would expect them to vote SNP, Labour / Liberal and Conservative in that order.

Obviously I don't condone the use of extreme language like "quisling", but on a strictly factual basis you're wrong - the Scotland Office is manned by members of a Scottish Unionist party (the Tories).

In other Ruth the Rape news. She's managed to take a quote from Alex Salmond, remove most of the words and claim that he talked of 1979-2014 as being a generation.

Which is odd as I was listening to that very interview when he first said it and those were not his words.

The FM (at that time) said that we'd had a referendum in 1979 and another in 1997 and that these events tended to be, "generational". So another in 2014 wasn't out of the ordinary for voters to cope with.

She really is a disgusting, revolting bigoted, racist piece of scum. If we were not a colony then a true Scottish media would expose her for all the World to see. But they won't.

Indeed - if only everyone other than Scottish nationalists could see the reality. Which is that a) the Scottish media is controlled by English colonialists, b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices in an English-controlled colonial structure, c) all politicians who oppose Scottish independence are racist, and d) England should keep giving defence contracts to Scotland after Scotland becomes independent, because anything else would be racist. What's this foam coming out of my mouth?

As a matter of interest, John, would you condemn Ruth Davidson for deliberately misquoting Alex Salmond on the "generational" point? Because Anon is undoubtedly right about that - I saw the original interview too.

"a) the Scottish media is controlled by English colonialists"This should read:"a) the Scottish media is dominated by Union supporting publications"

"b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices in an English-controlled colonial structure"This should read:"b) the Scottish LibDem, Labour and Conservative parties are branch offices of Westminster-controlled parties"

"c) all politicians who oppose Scottish independence are racist"This should read:"c) politicians who oppose Scottish independence are unconvinced for various reasons"

"d) England should keep giving defence contracts to Scotland after Scotland becomes independent, because anything else would be racist."This should read:"d) The UK Government should award defence contracts to the most cost effective bidders, because this is right and proper."

Unlabelled) "What's this foam coming out of my mouth?"Answer: Slevvers

That Alex Salmond interview is constantly being misquoted. I watched at the time and have watched it in its entirety several times since. What is claimed he said is simply not what he said. A phrase here or there is cheery-picked and its meaning completely changed. But people who misrepresent what he said are trying to point score not tell the truth.

For those who wish to know. The margin of error in a sample = 1.0 divided by the square root of the number of items in the sample. 1000 sample, MoE = 3.16%, 3500 sample, MoE = 1.69% assuming samples are analysed in the same way

BunnyFunster. Whit a knob ye are. You give defense contracts to people you trust and that should be at home. The Nat sis could not be trusted as they hate the English. They would bubble the technical datails to their German pals. Up yer kilt traitor.

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

73% are going to share their vote between the two Scottish Tory parties and people are dying on the Scottish Streets with no shelter to sustain them.No mention in Parliament and no intention of a strategy.

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

Damn it! Damn it all tae Hell! I thought we'd done it. I thought we'd love-bombed the shit outta him, finally turned hate to hugs. But, no. I take comfort in the fact that there was always hope - From the outset, from when I first realised that he can't spell Nazi properly, I thought "there's hope". Just not this time *shakes head*, God damn it. Let's not give up though. Let's love the arse off him until he can hate no more. Let's explode our collective love-missile deep within him, and and blow his Kipping mind with caring. Let's make him our "love-bitch" project, folks. I love you to Hell and back, man *arms outstretched* C'mere ya wee rascal....

Knickerless Kim Jung Eck and the Nat si elites have reduced education attainment to a level less than the Victorians. A policy to keep the masses docile while blaming the English. The Dustbin is waiting for them. Wake up Jocks throw the Buckfast away and get rid off this scum bunch of con merchants.

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

I'm love-bombing the shit outta GWC2. If this doesn't help him, nothing will....

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

The only issue here is that they names Neil Hay as the SNP candidate - which has likely held the SNP vote share down a few %. There's also a high Green score but it will likely split evenly between SNP and Labour here.

If you add the Nat si Tartan Tory vote to the Blue Tory then it could be historically remarkable. The working and underclass wiped out by the new elite. ... And the dispossessed are dying on our streets and you Nat sis play your game of petty nationalism. You really are scumbags and you know it.

Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.Love, Love, Love.There's nothing you can do that can't be done.Nothing you can sing that can't be sung.Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game.It's easy.Nothing you can make that can't be made.No one you can save that can't be saved.Nothing you can do but you can learn how to be you in time.It's easy.All you need is love.All you need is love.All you need is love, love.Love is all you need.Nothing you can know that isn't known.Nothing you can see that isn't shown.Nowhere you can be that isn't where you're meant to be.It's easy.All you need is love (All together, now!)All you need is love (Everybody!)All you need is love, love. Love is all you need (love is all you need).

One of the polls out today has the Scottish sub sample showing the SNP on 41% and excluding dk 49%.Cons 20% behind. The other poll sub sample is very small and far too Tory when looking at the 2015 recall vote. Think it had the Snp on 41.% and cons 27.%