Chad Finn’s 2012 NFL predictions

<b>By Chad Finn/Globe Staff </b><br>Finally, football. With the NFL kicking off the season Wednesday night with a Giants-Cowboys matchup, there's probably one consensus prediction among fans: the replacement referees will make some blunder that has an effect on the outcome of a Week 1 game, perhaps even this one. Who knew Ed Hochuli would be so missed? While I'm at it, here are 12 other predictions for '12.
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<b>Calvin Johnson will become the first 2,000-yard receiver</b>
Hard to believe in this era of 5,000-yard passers and electrifying aerial offenses, but the NFL single-season record for receiving yards was set way back in 1995. It's not a surprise that it was Jerry Rice who set it, with 1,848 yards for the 49ers, but it's amazing it lasted so long. It won't last beyond this season, with Johnson, who had 1,618 yards last year, teaming with Matthew Stafford to terrorize the atrocious pass defenses in the NFC North. No Lions divisional opponent finished higher than 26th in passing yards allowed per game last season.
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<b>Peyton Manning will not win the MVP or lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl</b>
Yes, of course he's an upgrade over Tim Tebow—Manning could suddenly decide to throw lefthanded and he'd probably be a more effective passer than his predecessor in Denver. But he's 36 years old and coming off an injury that threatened his career. He's admitted that his velocity took time to come back (Peyton Pennington?), and he doesn't have the weapons in Denver he had during his Indianapolis heyday. A healthy season and a winning record seem like the best possible outcome.
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<b>The Chiefs will be the surprise team of the AFC</b>
Matt Cassel takes a lot of grief in Kansas City, and the former Patriots quarterback was mediocre at best last season, with just 10 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. But it's worth a reminder that just a season before, he threw 27 TD passes to just 7 picks, finishing with a 93 rating. With Jamaal Charles returning to health, steady Romeo Crennel on the sidelines, and a young, opportunistic defense offering support, Cassel and KC are poised for a bounce-back season.
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<b>The Falcons will be the top seed in the NFC</b>
Matt Ryan is already an excellent quarterback, as evidenced by his career 43-19 mark as a starter. But with veteran Roddy White (100 catches last year, second in the league to Wes Welker) and second-year sensation Julio Jones at his disposal, the former BC star will become a legitimate MVP candidate. On defense, the Falcons have question marks, but the arrival of Asante Samuel and new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan will help the cause. Tom Dimitroff has built a very good team.
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<b>Tim Tebow will become the Jets' starting quarterback no later than Week 6</b>
<br> Maybe Mark Sanchez will be injured, maybe he'll be ineffective, maybe he'll run off with Eva Longoria and forget about football altogether. However it unfolds, it seems inevitable that Tebow, who has surpassed Brian Bosworth as the league's all-time leader in hype-to-performance ratio, gets a shot to lead a team that talks a better game than it actually plays.
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<b>The Cardinals' John Skelton will prove valuable in both real and fantasy football</b>
It seems like a quarterback or two emerges every season from relative obscurity to become a dependable starter. Think Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick last year. Our bet to put up unexpectedly good numbers this season is the Cardinals' Skelton, who threw for 1,913 yards last year in eight games, is more comfortable in his third season, and has Larry Fitzgerald on his side.
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<b>Andrew Luck will break the ancient record of passing yards in a season by a rookie quarterback</b>
And by ancient, we mean it was set exactly a season ago, by Carolina's electrifying Cam Newton, who finished his first season with 4,051 yards via the air. Luck is as polished a QB prospect as there has been in years, and with a decent receiving corps that includes Reggie Wayne, he will break Newton's record on the last weekend of the season.
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<b>The Dolphins will pay bizarre homage to the undefeated '72 team by nearly going winless</b>
Sometimes it's tough to tell what's real and what's exaggerated on "Hard Knocks,'' but every now and then an undeniable truth is revealed. (Think Dave Campo, Dallas Cowboys, wet suit, credibility destroyed.) The truth revealed this season is that as nice and competent as Joe Philbin may be, his Miami Dolphins are terrible. Their early schedule isn't too difficult—at Houston, at home against the Raiders and Jets—but it's going to be a struggle for them to win no matter who they play. Put the over/under at two wins.
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<b>Pete Carroll will coach the Seahawks to a 7-9 record</b> Things we know about Pete Carroll: He jumps around with the enthusiasm of a college coach, acquires mediocre quarterbacks, digs khakis, gets out of town before the posse arrives, speaks with relentless optimism, tweets about music and other things he finds to be awesome, and leads the Seahawks to 7 wins a season. He did it in 2010, he did it in 2011, and he'll do it again this year.
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<b>Adrian Peterson will return to good health and sensational form</b>
Perhaps this one is more wishful thinking than anything else considering that the Vikings' sensational running back tore his ACL in the second-to-last game last season. But Peterson is such a dynamic player that a fan of football can't help but hope he can somehow finds his former form soon. He's a game-time decision for Week 1.
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<b>The Patriots defense will rank among the league's 10 best</b>
Perhaps the most implausible of my predictions here given that they were 15th in points allowed and 31st in yardage last year. But with potential impact rookies Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, and Tavon Wilson in the mix, Ras-I Dowling healthy again, the likes of Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Brandon Spikes entering their prime, and Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo anchoring it all, this group has the talent to be vastly improved over last year's flawed unit.
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<b>Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers will win his second straight MVP award</b>
<br> But the Packers quarterback will fall short of a second Super Bowl championship despite winning the NFC title. That will go to Tom Brady in the Patriots, who will celebrate a fourth Super Bowl title on the same field where the Patriots won their first championship 11 years ago.
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