Tuesday, October 16, 2007

De-Throned?

They're baaaaaack!

Canada's New Government gave it's second throne speech tonight. And since we've had a month of daily election speculation around it, let's start there. With the Bloc and NDP against it, it's all in Dion's hands now. And while there are certainly some ominous promises, throne speeches are vague enough that the Liberals can likely let it pass.

That said, it's going to be a challenge to make it to Christmas without a lack of confidence vote given the following promises in today's speech:

23 Comments:

The thing is, the apparent limitation on the spending power is identical the "social union" proposed a decade ago - the feds can still institute programs in so-called exclusive provincial jurisdiction, so long as they provide equivalent funding to provinces which opt-out to run their own equivalent programs.

no government has ever gone down on a throne speech because they are so vague without specific spending commitments like in a budget.why does everyone take the ndp and bloc at their word they will vote against it?everyone remembers duceppe flipping from in to out in a heartbeat, and i dont think he really is keen on an election now. where would he gain seats?and the ndp are working for everyone, remember jack and his budget deally with paul. he might flip if given the opportunity.

1. They don't want to support this government yet again, for fear of looking like the Conservatives' tool.

2. Damage control. The Liberals are weaker than ever in Montréal, and the Conservatives still have a bit of growth potential outside Montréal. Things are ugly now, but they might be thinking that they'll only get uglier with time.

Let the CONs force an election on the gun registry or intrasigence over the omnibus crime bill -- the majority of that had made it to the senate where it was en route to ratification.This game of cat and mouse has many options, so all these CON bloggers, who seem to forget their team's pathetic last attempt at pretending to make parliament work, should take a gut check. In 2004-05, Harper was seen as Dead Man Walking. I guess they didn't learn anything from that episode, either.

First we'll have the Upperclass Twit of The Year Watch. If Dion tries to pass an amendment that the Cons and NDP can't support, Layton could abstain and the public would be treated to an accidental self-shooting.

Then we have the Suicide Watch with the Omnibus Bill. If Dion let's it go to the Senate he buys some time, but Harper will push to him to the wall if the Senate doesn't pass it by summer.

If he doesn't have more public support by budget time he'll be on one hell of a roll.

940news: The Liberal amendment calls on the government to accept the blame for failing to meet Kyoto targets, suggesting that the previous Liberal government was on track to do so. Both Layton and Duceppe scoffed at that assertion.

So Dion's clever trick is to tell a whopper, get beaten about the head by all parties and then sulk by abstaining on the main vote. This is how they talked Citoyen Dion down from his ledge? Good luck with that.

Martin, with a strong majority and not needing to call an election in 2004, does so because he is trying to beat the repercussions from voters when Gomery testimony comes out.

Whoops, blew that one. Liberal's now reduced to minority government. Liberal's beg, steal, and borrow to avoid another election(Stronach, $4.6 billion for NDP, cancelling opposition days, etc.). Ooops, Liberal's fall, and now find themselves as the official opposition.

Pollining indicates Liberal's are unlikely to win even a minority in an election. Media speculates on a Harper majority being possicle.

See the trend here yet Jim?

Now let's look at past history. 1997,2000, and 2004 ewlections called by the Liberal's ONLY because they thought the timing favored them.

"Is harper really as bright as he thinks he is?"

Maybe not. But he sure is a lot brighter than Dion. What does Dion do about Kyoto now? Rename his dog numbnuts? They said the first Kyoto cuts are 76 days away, and that if Canada shut down all manufacturing and took all cars off the road till then they still can't make the targets.

A vote on Afghanistan? Think Liberal's will bring Harper down on that? Apparently you don't follow the news properly. Harper has said the extension will be voted on and must pass a consensus in Parliament. Not a confidence vote, get it?

Harper's fixed-election date legislation? When we do have the next election, Liberal's will have a lot tougher time bringing Harper down with all the recent elections, that is if he doesn't have his majority. And when it looks like he will be brought down he can just take a page out of the Martin-Goodale example of bringing in tax cuts and increasing spending on special interest groups to curry votes.

Snigger! Harper’s supporters do a lot of liberal baiting on a liberal blog. But, they can’t take it when the shoe’s on the other foot.

A writer once wrote that war is the province of uncertainty. Ditto for politics. Look at John Tory in Ontario. One moment, a contender. Now, consigned to oblivion.

It’s not a coincidence that he’s a right-wing guy like harper. Though to be fair, John Tory is a gentleman while harper is not.

Let’s be honest. Harper has a specific agenda to ‘reform’ Canada. The majority of Canadians resist him. Harper still can’t get a majority with dion asleep during the summer.

The majority is waiting for the Liberals to find themselves. And, they will do that if they don’t fall apart.

Of course, the situation was very different in spring with harper on the defensive. Where’s the trend? The reality is that harper is riding on the back of Liberal weakness.

To harper’s credit, he has learned and evolved. The latest play was a cunning attempt to overcome the difficulties harper imposed on himself. Now, we will see whether dion is able to learn and evolve. This is the nature of warfare.

At the beginning, harper was naïve. He believed that he could win a majority with simple politics. He believed in his immaculate mandate. Now, he has to dodge and twist like a Liberal politician.

The sad thing is that harper is nasty while Chretien and Martin was not. For example, harper cut funding for the Canadian Wildlife Services. Why would harper harm the little critters just to spit the Greens?

The fact is that harper needs a majority while dion only needs a minority. That’s quite a disadvantage.