> Donal Sutherland over at Storm2K wrote:
>
> [donsutherland1@h...]
>
> [quote]Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reports that the
> MJO is currently in an indeterminate phase, the 240-hour GFS
> ensembles portray a situation that correlates well with Phase 8 of
> the MJO. That would be around 7/31. If so, the MJO is probably

around

> Phase 6 at present and moving toward Phase 7. The 72-hour GFS
> ensembles look reasonably similar to a Phase 7 situation.
>
> What does this mean?
>
> It means that toward the end of July, opportunities for Cape Verde
> (CV) waves (those that move off the African coast and/or develop
> within 1000 km of the Cape Verde Islands) to threaten North

America

> would likely diminish. In-close development, of course, could

still

> pose a threat.
>
> Phase 1 of the MJO would then see widespread troughing over the
> Atlantic begin to decay. Indeed, the 360-hour GFS ensembles paint
> just such a picture.
>
> Phase 2 would see the trough concentrated near the U.S. East Coast
> but most of the troughing over the Atlantic would have dissipated.
>
> Phases 3 and 4 would see riding develop over North America and

then

> expand out across the Atlantic. As this happens, the proverbial

gates

> would swing open to permit the "entry" of CV systems.
>
> Per MJO timing, that would probably begin to occur around the

August

> 10-20 period. Before then, one might see unseasonable heat in the
> Eastern U.S. and that could be a clue as to how the pattern is
> evolving.
>
> For now, in coming days, the proverbial "gates" could close on CV
> systems. If so, such systems would tend to recurve harmlessly away
> from the U.S. and that will likely be the situation toward the end

of

> the month given the evolution depicted on the GFS ensembles.

[/quote]

>
> MJO to the meteorology community reminds me of that Nirvana song
> about a man with a gun but he don't know what it means . . .
>
> http://groups.yahoo.com/group/methanehydrateclub/message/2484
>
> In light of this discussion and then my discussion about event
> horizons, namely how the barotropical models are limited to 5

days,

> the discussion of MJO is extremely signicant. The rough movements

of

> water in the air in the region of the Indian Ocean has profound
> ELECTRICAL signicance due to the fact that the tropics are the

most

> warm and therefore conductive regions on earth, and the Indian

Ocean

> is tropical and warm. This ocean also has the direect current
> connectino to the most struck place on earth--Africa, and largest
> region of conductive ocean--the Pacific. Remember, water is a
> powerful dielectric constant compared to air, so the regional
> movements of clouds,of water, while slower then mere pressure
> changes, will have significant electrical implications to a

region.

> So as the MJO changes, so does global climate.
>
> Recall the example of my burner in my kitchen. Not a one of you