Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

NFL Super Bowl Pick Results

Winning team in bold.

Giants @ Patriots (APR, SRS, Line)

In the
game picks for the Super Bowl, I identified two things I
thought the Patriots needed to do to win: 1) don't turn the ball
over, and 2) establish a 2-score lead. They didn't do either
one.

The Patriots only had one turnover, but it was a costly one: it
came early in the 4th quarter, on 1st+10, near midfield. If the
Patriots had managed to sustain the drive, at the very least it
would've taken time off the clock. And, of course, it would've been
huge to have scored on that drive—a touchdown would have
established that 2-score lead, and perhaps put the game out of
reach. Even a field-goal would've helped, meaning that a Giants'
touchdown would have (with a 2-point conversion) only meant a
3-point lead.

The Giants, for their part, did a masterful job of steering the
game to their strengths—kept it a close, low-scoring
defense-dominated affair. Throughout the playoffs, I kept expecting
the "bad Giants" to make an appearance—the team that lost 20
turnovers in 8 games, the team that needed a 21-point 4th-quarter
come-back to beat the Cardinals. But that never happened, and I am
forced to conclude that the Giants are much better than
their record when they don't turn the ball over.

Totals

ThisWeek

ThisSeason

%

APR

0-1

5-6

45.5%

SRS

0-1

5-6

45.5%

Line

0-1

6-5

54.5%

More to come!

There's still a few more season wrap-up posts to come. I'm also planning to have
some off-season posts based on analysis of historical data, so you may want to check in
once in a while (or just subscribe to the RSS feed).