Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 3/8/2011

Table of Contents

Market Wrap

Whiplash Markets

by Jim Brown

We would not know how to act without a major short squeeze or major news event to power the markets to triple digit gains or losses. Volatility is extreme and there is no conviction on either side.

Market Statistics

Rumors that Gaddafi may be looking for a way to exit his current dilemma sent oil prices plunging and created another short squeeze to power the Dow to a triple digit gain. Oil prices declined intraday to $103 even though the Gaddafi rumor was unsubstantiated.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan gave the banking sector a boost after he predicted a return to normalized profits by 2013 in the range of $35-$40 billion. Bank of America and others are also planning on reinstating dividends once the Fed approves the change on March 20th. BAC is planning some special dividends and stock buybacks when that approval arrives. Moynihan expects 30% dividend payout by 2013-2014.

It was a really boring day for economic news with only two reports. The Manpower Employment report showed an increase in those responders planning on increasing payrolls from 14% to 16%. Those planning on cutting positions declined to 6% from 10%. Basically that means the net hiring component increased from 4% of responders to 10%. That is a pretty big increase even though the numbers are still fairly low.

The Weekly Chain Store Sales increased by +2.3% compared to a -0.5% decline last week. Better weather was blamed for the increase in store traffic. The drag from higher gasoline prices appeared to minimal.

The economic calendar for the rest of the week is limited without any material reports.

Economic Calendar

The big news was not economic but the Bank of America outlook. Moving to pretax earnings of $35-$40 billion will be a major recovery for the bank and the sector. The bank had a pre-tax profit of $11 billion in 2010. BAC outlined its expectations in the first analyst conference since 2007. Moynihan said BAC was on its way to becoming a "capital generation machine" thanks to its acquisitions of MBNA and Merrill Lynch. He said he was changing the culture of the bank. "We have no acquisitions to do. We don't need anything." BAC shares jumped +5% to $14.69.

The news helped to power the financial stocks in the Dow and create the opening short squeeze. Other stocks that would benefit from the kind of increasing economic activity Moynihan was expecting also rallied hard. Those Dow stocks included IBM, CAT, MMM, BA and UTX.

The Gaddafi rumor was credited with knocking some of the wind off oil prices but they were already headed south before the rumor hit the wires. The price of crude is over extended but many think after a bit of profit taking it will move higher.

Francisco Blanch, Chief Global Strategist at BAC, raised his targets for the rest of 2011. He said Brent could average $122 in Q2 and WTI $101. That is up from a prior estimate of $87 for WTI. He expects Brent to top $130 in Q2 but decline in Q4 to $94. His rationale is the surging demand around the world and the drop in output from Libya. He said 1.1 mbpd of light crude was now offline and regardless of who won the battle it could take many months to repair damage to oil facilities and reopen supply. This is exactly what I wrote about over the weekend in OilSlick. If the rebels win they consist of 12-20 tribes who don't like each other and the problem of how to divide $150 million a day in oil revenues will be a hotly contested issue. If Gaddafi wins it could still take months because of the purge of opposition supporters and the time it will take to rebuild the damaged facilities.

Gasoline prices nationwide rose to $3.52 according to one survey and $3.57 by another. MasterCard's Spending Pulse report showed gasoline demand declined -1.8% last week. The decline was broad based across all regions. MasterCard said they saw demand destruction in 2008 when prices moved over $3.20 per gallon so destruction over $3.50 today should not be a surprise. The spike in gasoline prices over the last two weeks was the sharpest on record according to the EIA.

Oil prices rebounded from the opening dip as OPEC members claimed to be considering an increase in production. The president of OPEC was reportedly calling all members for their input. I would not expect a true production increase. They might say they are increasing just to cover some of their 2.2 mbpd of cheating on their current quotas but you know they are perfectly happy at $100 oil. Saudi Arabia, the only vote that really counts has repeatedly said this week there is no shortage of oil. "The market is well supplied and the high price is the result of speculation." Sounds like the same tired chorus they used in 2008 and you know how well that played out.

Chart of WTI Crude

Chart of Brent

Urban Outfitters was the big story stock of the day with a -16% decline after missing earnings estimates by nearly every metric possible. Earnings per share were 45 cents compared to the 52-cent estimate. Gross margins declined by -2% to 39.7% and inventory levels rose +23%. Wall Street Strategies analyst said URBN missed the mark on style, fit and value and it could take them a year to work out from under their bloated inventories. Another analyst at Weeden blamed the winter weather for keeping customers away.

Chart of URBN

NetFlix took another pounding on news Facebook was entering the video streaming market with a Time Warner offering. Goldman said Facebook was a bigger threat to NetFlix than Amazon. Not everybody agreed. Facebook is offering only one title, The Dark Knight, for $3 in Facebook credits for a 48-hour rental. Obviously this is a trial balloon by Time Warner and there will be a catalog of titles once the effort is tested and proves worthy. Another limiting factor requires the movie to be streamed on a computer through the Facebook application. Google already tried this with YouTube and it was a flop. I don't see Facebook as a real competitor to NetFlix but traders did sell the shares today.

Chart of Netflix

McDonalds (MCD) said same store sales rose +3.9% in February. However, shares of MCD decline because U.S. sales fell short of analyst projections. U.S. sales rose +2.7% and analysts were expecting a +3.6% gain. Sales rose +5.1% in France, the U.K. and Russia.

Nvidia (NVDA) saw shares decline -4.5% to close at $19.55 on a sell the news event. Nvidia continues to claim it is going to expand its foothold in tablet computing but again failed to unveil any new designs or time frames for new graphics processors. The +27% gain on expectations is running out of fuel without some concrete products in the pipeline.

Nvidia Chart

The Dow Transports rebounded +2.5% on the minor decline in oil. This is clearly a short covering rally after two days of declines. Airlines were the biggest gainers. They have been raising prices because of high oil and the potential for oil prices to decline suggests they may be out of trouble. The close at 5147 was a two-week high.

Dow Transports Chart

I was glad to see the short squeeze today but it was far from bullish. The squeeze ended at 11:30 and the indexes started to fade as the afternoon progressed. So far this is just a lower high and any further decline from here would be bearish. The recent rallies have taken a back seat to the sudden appearance of sell programs and we are only one good sell program away from retesting the lows from Monday. I would advise caution until we get past the FOMC meeting next Tuesday.

S&P-500 Chart - 90 Min

S&P-500 Chart - Daily

The Dow also lodged a lower high on the rebound and failed exactly at downtrend resistance. We had a successful retest of the early March low but we need to see a breakout above the 12,300 level on Wednesday or the bears are going to load up on shorts again in an attempt to break the rally. The support at 12,050 will be critical if tested again.

Dow Chart - 90 Min

The lower high on the Nasdaq was weaker than the equivalent rebounds on the Dow or S&P. This is not a good sign. Big cap tech stocks did not participate in the rally with Apple gaining only 40-cents as an example. This is bearish for Nasdaq sentiment. The weaker lower high and the weak +20 point gain for the day is a warning signal for the rest of the week.

Nasdaq Chart

Wednesday is the two-year anniversary of the bear market low and I hope that does not mean we have a serious bout of selling. Anniversaries always seem to make traders nervous. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn told the investors in his fund on Monday he was returning their money, roughly $1.7 billion, because he was afraid of a new market decline and did not want to be responsible for their money in a new market crash. At least that was his official reason for returning the money. Analysts said it was more likely he did not want to register his fund as would be required under the new financial reform laws. However, I am sure investors "heard" the worry over a new market crash and did not hear the suggestion it was regulation related.

I would continue to be cautious until after the FOMC meeting next Tuesday. Tighten up your stops and exit aggressively to maintain any profits.

Why We Like It:
Shares of CTSH, a business software and services company, have been consolidating sideways for over two months. Shares were showing relative strength today and look poised to breakout over resistance near $78.00. I am suggesting we use a trigger to buy calls at $78.25. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $74.75. Our upside targets will be $82.25 and $84.75.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CTSH is bullish with a $105 target. Plus, a breakout past $78 would produce a new quadruple top breakout buy signal.

Trigger @ 78.25

- Suggested Positions -

Buy the April $80 calls (CTSH1116D80) current ask $1.70

Annotated Chart:

Entry on March xxth at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.2 million
Listed on March 8th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
Positive analyst comments were not enough to boost BHI out of its current malaise. Shares are still hovering near support at the $68 level. Overall the energy stocks were laggards while most of the market rebounded on Tuesday. With a stop loss at $67.90 I would still consider new April positions here.

Our targets are $74.75 and $79.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $75 calls (BHI1119C75) Entry @ $1.02

- or -

Long the April $75 calls (BHI1116D75) Entry @ $2.13

Entry on February 28th at $71.74
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
Hmm... does today's decline really confirm yesterday's bearish reversal? Traders jumped in and bought the dip in BTU right where we would expect them to, near support at the $66 level. The intraday bounce off this support was pretty quick. I would be inclined to buy this bounce (but you may want to raise your stops toward $66).

Our final target is the $74.00 level but we may have to exit the March calls before BTU hits that level.
If we do see a new entry point I would consider the April or June options.
Our second target is $74.00.
The Point & Figure chart for BTU is bullish with an $80 target.
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Comments:
03/08 update:
After yesterday's ugliness it was nice to see a little oversold bounce in BWA today (+1.5%). Yet shares remain under resistance at $78.00. I remain cautious here and would not open new positions at this time.

Our targets are $79.75 and $84.50. Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

SMALL bullish positions

Long the March $80 calls (BWA1119C80) Entry @ $1.10

- or -

Long the April $80 calls (BWA1116D80) Entry @ $2.47

Entry on February 25th at $76.06
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on February 24th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update: Relative strength in shares of CAT definitely lent support to the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock is testing last week's highs. I remain bullish on CAT but would not open new positions at these levels.
More conservative traders might want to edge up their stop loss closer to $100.

Comments:
03/08 update:
CERN continues to bounce but I suspect we might see this stock retest the $101-100 zone again. Wait for dips in this area as new bullish entry points.
Readers may want to raise their stop loss closer to the $100 level.
Our second and final target is $109.00.

FYI: I want to point out that the most recent data (as of Feb. 15th) listed short interest at 13.9% of CERN's 70-million share float. That definitely seems like a high amount of shorts and fuel for a short squeeze. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for CERN is bullish with a $115 target and what appears to be a relatively fresh quadruple top breakout buy signal.

Comments:
03/08 update:
CTXS continue to show strength and shares added +1.8%. The stock is now testing its February highs near $73.00. This is short-term resistance so we might see CTXS pull back from here. I would use a dip near $70 as a new entry point.

I do consider this a slightly more aggressive trade. We'll put our stop loss under last week's low and under its 50-dma. Our targets are $77.00 and $79.90.
The Point & Figure chart for CTXS is bullish with a $94 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Long the April $75 calls (CTXS1116D75) Entry @ $2.20

Entry on March 7th at $71.89
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on March 5th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update: Energy stocks were laggards on Tuesday but traders bought the dip in DVN at $88.53. I remain bullish and would consider buying calls on this intraday rebound.
Alternatively you could wait for a breakout past $92.
Our exit targets are $94.85 and $99.00. Let's keep our position size small since the market has been a little bit volatile lately.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Long the April $95 calls (DVN1116D95) Entry @ $1.60

- or -

Long the July $95 calls (DVN1116G95) Entry @ $4.30

Entry on March 7th at $91.35
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.3 million
Listed on March 5th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update: FAST produced a big bounce from support with a +1.9% gain on Tuesday. Shares are now testing short-term resistance in the $62.50-63.50 zone. I would not open new positions at this time.

Readers may want to keep in mind that the most recent data listed short interest at 13.6% of the 132 million-share float.

Comments:
03/08 update: FDS produced a +1.2% bounce but shares were unable to breakout from its current pennant-shaped consolidation pattern. This is a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs.

I would keep our positions size small. This is a volatile stock and we're playing March options so expect a lot of volatility in the option price.
We'll plan on exiting March 14th at the close to avoid holding over the report.

Comments:
03/08 update:
FOSL managed to tag a new high above $84.00 but failed to truly breakout past its February highs. Odds favor a dip soon and that would look like a potential bearish double top pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.
Our final target is $88.00.

Comments:
03/08 update:
Energy stocks were underperformers on Tuesday as oil struggled near its highs. HES was weak right away but traders immediately bought the dip near technical support at its rising 40-dma. This intraday bounce looks like a new bullish entry point to buy calls. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stops closer to the $82.00 mark.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $90 calls (HES1116D90) Entry @ $2.60

- or -

Long the May $90 calls (HES1121E90) Entry @ $4.15

03/02 Adjusted stop loss to $81.60

Entry on March 1st at $87.17
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.9 million
Listed on February 28th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
ICE hit some profit taking today following yesterday's bullish breakout. The stock lost -2.0% but traders bought the dip near prior resistance and what should be new support near $130.
Nimble traders could buy this dip but if you do I would use a tighter stop loss.
Our first target to take profits is at $138.00.

Prior comments:
This is an aggressive trade. The stock is volatile and there is a chance that ICE makes an acquisition bid for another exchange. If Wall Street thinks ICE is paying too much the stock will decline on the news. Our targets are $138.00 and $148.00.
I want to warn you that the March options will probably be extremely volatile.

Comments:
03/08 update:
MMM has produced a bullish breakout over resistance to set new multi-year highs. If you like to buy breakouts then this is your entry point. I would buy the April calls and target $99. MMM is getting close to our $94.50 target. Our second and final target is $99.00.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $90 calls (MMM1119C90) Entry @ $1.75

- or -

Long the April $95 calls (MMM1116D95) Entry @ $0.78

Entry on February 25th at $89.75
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.5 million
Listed on February 24th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
Nike was getting some positive press on CNBC today. Dick's Sporting Goods had bullish things to say about their footwear sales, suggesting NKE would be having a good quarter. Currently our final target is $91.50. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher. However, the newsletter does not want to hold over NKE's earnings report, which is coming up soon on March 17th.

Comments:
03/08 update:
Ouch! Energy stocks were laggards on Tuesday but OXY really underperformed. Shares gave up -2.0% and look headed for round-number support near $100.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss closer to the 50-dma near $99.15. I would wait for OXY to test $100 before initiating new positions.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. Don't forget that March calls expire in a couple of week.

Comments:
03/08 update:
QSII came close to erasing yesterday's losses but didn't quite make it. Yesterday I suggested using a bounce above $80.50 or $81.00 as an entry point and we got that rebound today.
Cautious traders could inch up their stop losses.

Prior Comments: FYI: Readers will be interested to note that the most recent data listed short interest in QSII at almost 28% of the very small 17.5 million-share float. That's definitely a recipe for a short squeeze. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for QSII is bullish with a $119 target.

Comments:
03/08 update:
RIG managed to buck the trend in energy stocks and post a gain today. Yet gains were pretty minor. Readers may want to wait for a dip into the $82-80 zone as our next entry point.
Our profit targets are $89.50 and $94.00.

Please note that the March calls will likely be very volatile.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $85 calls (RIG1119C85) Entry @ $2.05

- or -

Long the April $85 calls (RIG1116D85) Entry @ $3.60

02/28 RIG hit our trigger @ 84.25

Entry on February 28th at $84.25
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
We had a close call with ROST today. This morning the stock spiked lower and hit $69.88 before bouncing. Shares eventually closed up with a +0.9% gain. Our stop loss remains at $69.75. Yesterday I suggested we buy calls on a bounce from $70 and we got it.
Don't forget that we will plan to exit ahead of the mid March earnings report.
The Point & Figure chart for ROST is bullish with a $97 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the April $75 calls (ROST1116D75) Entry @ $1.60

03/03 New stop loss @ 69.75

Entry on March 1st at $72.55
Earnings Date 03/17/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on February 28th, 2010

Comments:
03/08 update:
The small cap index came very close to erasing yesterday's losses. The rebound lifted the index right back toward short-term resistance. A breakout from here could spark a new leg higher. If not, then we could be destined to churn sideways for the rest of the week.
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Comments:
03/08 update:
WAT continues to show relative strength and shares added +1.2%. If the market could rally from here WAT has a good chance of surging toward $90. More conservative traders may just want to lock in a profit now.
I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.
Our final target is $89.90.

FYI: The March calls will likely be very volatile.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the March $85 calls (WAT1119C85) Entry @ $0.90

- or -

Long the April $85 calls (WAT1116D85) Entry @ $1.75

03/05 New stop loss @ 81.80
03/04 1st Target Hit @ $86.00. Options @ +100%, and +57.1%
The March $85 was bid near $1.80, the April $85s near $2.75.