Monday, 21 March 2011

Just had a fascinating chat on a Tory Facebook wall about the ConDem alliance and what I think will transpire in the next 2-4 years. These are my best bits. Thoughts?

Cameron's clock is ticking I'm afraid. When it all starts to bite he's gonna go down about as well as a nun in a brothel. It's easy to sing when you are winning. Give it 2-4 years and when the LibDems have realised how seriously shafted they are, they are gonna go to town on the Tories...should make the next election a right laugh. Labour landslide (unions are about to enjoy a boom period which will empower Labour of course) whilst the right dukes it out amongst themselves. Fractured right lies ahead. On so many fronts. Inevitable. Less fractured left. Left will regain the middle. LibDems will be selling french fries at McD's...

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It's the Tories' election to lose not Labour's to win. Labour have no leader capable of beating Cameron in a fair fight, even DMili. But with a crap economy on one side, the LibDems spilling all manner of beans on another side, a couple of years of union restrengthening and restocking of the labour coffers, regardless of impact on policy on another side and loads more people in Britain hurting financially...the Tories are going to have to turn water into wine...pretty sure Cameron is not THAT good ;)

Much of the the LibDem support is going to go red, and Labour will be able to mobilise the student/young/old/poor/pounded middle class vote in a way that'll make the Obama campaign look old school. All it takes is passion...

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So there you have it. And when the LibDems start flailing against the dying of the right in a couple of years, pre-election, and attacking the Tories, the Tories who never really liked there sort anyway, will tear back into them. It will be civil war and I predict Labour will be the last-man standing...regardless of how unsuitable they may be.

The only solution, the only way to prevent the poison from coming out is for the LibDems and The Tories to forever merge. To marry, shotgun at the ready, as lets face it, you are now both in full shag mode. And that marriage will never work...because the rest of the Tory family on the fringes will not want to be a part of that, no doubt, euro love fest, and so fragmentation awaits, either because of the marriage or because of the lack of a marriage.

So, for me, the Tories have one choice to make, hold the middle and marry the libdems or lose the middle but retain the right. To hold the country you need to hold the middle. To hold the party you need to hold the right.

So I predict a new party will be born. A centre-right, Euro-tolerant, New Conservatives...oh the sweet irony...Blair gets the last laugh either way...