posted at 3:41 pm on December 10, 2012 by Allahpundit

Remember when the Egyptian army was supposed to be a check on the Brotherhood’s power, not an arm of it?

As his proposed compromise faded and tensions mounted on Sunday, Mr. Morsi followed through on plans announced the day before to authorize the military to protect national institutions and polling places. His order, printed in the official gazette on Sunday, amounts to a form of martial law, because it will allow soldiers under the direction of the defense minister to arrest civilians under a military code of justice.

The move indicated that, at least in the short term, Egypt’s powerful military was lining up behind the new Islamist president to complete the transition to a new constitution.

The new draft constitution is a sharia fan’s dream, giving Muslim clerics power over civil rights and establishing a legal basis for the sort of morals street-policing for which Saudi Arabia’s mutaween are known and loathed. Why would the military leadership, which partnered with the west for decades under Mubarak and takes billions from the U.S. even now, go for something like that? Two reasons. One: There are more Islamists in the military’s hierarchy than analysts thought. That’s how Morsi got away with firing Field Marshal Tantawi, the leader of the country’s junta and de facto supreme ruler until he was canned. Two: The military as an institution has reached an accommodation with the Brotherhood, an outcome so completely predictable that even a dummy like me saw it coming on the very day that Mubarak was deposed. Quote:

The trick for the Brotherhood will be emulating the Iranian model to coopt the military somehow. They’ll have to do it in reverse order from how Iran did it — i.e., instead of starting a la Iran with an Islamist revolt that’s later secured by a de facto military coup (in 2009), they’ll have to follow today’s de facto coup with an Islamist revolt — but it’s not impossible. If the Egyptian military holds on too tightly to power and the public gets restless again, they could strike a deal with the Brotherhood in which the Islamists take formal control in the name of “democratic legitimacy” in return for guaranteeing that the military can keep its business rackets going.

Quid pro quo. If the Brotherhood leaves the military alone, the military will repay the kindness. And sure enough, here’s what the new sharia-on-steroids draft constitution says about military prerogatives:

According to analysts who have studied it, the centerpiece of the charter is the creation of a 15-member national defense council — including eight military appointees — that is essentially an autonomous overseer of military affairs.

Critically, the council has the power to approve declarations of war, a provision that analysts cast as a kind of safety valve for the United States, which remains wary of an Islamist government with ties to the Palestinian militant group Hamas that might jeopardize the 1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

The council would handle military trials, which also are allowed for Egyptian civilians who are deemed a threat to the military. Although parliament must approve the overall budget figure, the council would handle all of its details, which are not required to be made public.

And in a provision that challenges any pretense of civilian oversight of the military, the draft charter requires that the president appoint the defense minister from among the ranks of the military.

The military’s defense budget will also be the province of the national defense council, not parliament, which means the men with guns will continue to operate as a “state within a state.” But even that’s good news for the Brotherhood, at least for now: A constitution that placed the military directly under Morsi’s command might spook Egypt’s western benefactors, who worry about a new war with Israel. By giving the military some sort of ostensible veto power over war, the MB is signaling to the U.S. that it’s safe to keep the money and weapons coming. That’s one of the reasons why the White House has been so embarrassingly docile about Morsi’s power grab. Not only are they trying to build goodwill among Egyptians by showing respect for “democracy,” even if the referendum results in a freakishly illiberal, undemocratic new constitution, but in theory they’ve got a failsafe via Egypt’s semi-independent military in case the MB decides to get frisky with Tel Aviv. In fact, almost as if to flaunt America’s acquiescence in all this, Morsi’s spokesman reiterated today that he’s planning to visit the U.S. in 2013.

The obvious next step for the Brotherhood once this new accommodation is in place is to further consolidate power by having its Islamist allies inside the military start purging the more secular officers. They’re not going to let the army operate autonomously forever; the risk of a new military coup is too high, especially when the order inevitably comes for a new war with Israel. In fact, I wonder if they’ll engage in some lesser adventurism first in order to win the military’s loyalty as part of the consolidation process. Making a move on Libya would destroy relations with the U.S., but if/when the MB amasses enough power to contemplate another bout with the IDF, they’ll have already committed to those relations being destroyed. Anyway, can’t wait for the joint Obama/Morsi presser next year!

Blowback

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The military’s defense budget will also be the province of the national defense council, not parliament, which means the men with guns will continue to operate as a “state within a state.” But even that’s good news for the Brotherhood, at least for now: A constitution that placed the military directly under Morsi’s command might spook Egypt’s western benefactors, who worry about a new war with Israel. By giving the military some sort of ostensible veto power over war, the MB is signaling to the U.S. that it’s safe to keep the money and weapons coming.

This is sideways respecting the topic, but it might be interesting to step back and look at the political dynamics of the military from a stiff distance, from a completely different perspective. The way the military is imagined here and the way it’s imagined there are completely different things.

Jump to China a minute (second paragraph is in the money):

Sure, China long ago dumped the core of the communist economic system, replacing rigid central planning with commercially minded state enterprises that coexist with a vigorous private sector. Yet for all their liberalization of the economy, Chinese leaders have been careful to keep control of the commanding heights of politics through the party’s grip on the “three Ps”: personnel, propaganda, and the People’s Liberation Army.

The PLA is the party’s military, not the country’s. Unlike in the West, where controversies often arise about the potential politicization of the military, in China the party is on constant guard for the opposite phenomenon, the depoliticization of the military. Their fear is straightforward: the loss of party control over the generals and their troops. In 1989, one senior general refused to march his soldiers into Beijing to clear students out of Tiananmen Square, an incident now seared into the ruling class’s collective memory. After all, the army’s crackdown on the demonstrations preserved the party’s hold on power in 1989, and its leaders have since worked hard to keep the generals on their side, should they be needed to put down protests again.

CAIRO — Perhaps the most radical change in U.S. foreign policy under President Obama has occurred here in Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood, long shunned as a collection of dangerous Islamist extremists, is now the de facto object of American support.

Not only that: Ultraconservative Salafist politicians, who make the Brotherhood seem like moderate pragmatists, are now regular visitors to the U.S. Embassy and, on the theory that it is better to have them inside the tent than out, they are able to visit the United States to learn how things work in the land of Jeffersonian democracy.

Schadenfreude: “Obama, Hillary, Rice all love dictators”.
Correct!
May I add to that?
Obama, Hillary, Rice all hate America, Israel, individual freedoms & the Constitution.
Or should I say add to that all progressives.
Kristol should just morph into a Democratic strategist, oh, he already is.

Remember when the Egyptian army was supposed to be a check on the Brotherhood’s power, not an arm of it?

And remember when American Army Officers, because of their sworn oath to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States of America against all enemies foriegn and domestic, were suppose to be a check on a Presidents power, not an arm of it?

I am honored to be in the timeless city of Cairo, and to be hosted by two remarkable institutions. For over a thousand years, Al-Azhar has stood as a beacon of Islamic learning, and for over a century, Cairo University has been a source of Egypt’s advancement. Together, you represent the harmony between tradition and progress. I am grateful for your hospitality, and the hospitality of the people of Egypt. I am also proud to carry with me the goodwill of the American people, and a greeting of peace from Muslim communities in my country: assalaamu alaykum.

Violent extremists have exploited these tensions in a small but potent minority of Muslims.

I have come here to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world; one based upon mutual interest and mutual respect; and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive, and need not be in competition. Instead, they overlap, and share common principles – principles of justice and progress; tolerance and the dignity of all human beings.

The fourth issue that I will address is democracy.

This last point is important because there are some who advocate for democracy only when they are out of power; once in power, they are ruthless in suppressing the rights of others. No matter where it takes hold, government of the people and by the people sets a single standard for all who hold power: you must maintain your power through consent, not coercion; you must respect the rights of minorities, and participate with a spirit of tolerance and compromise; you must place the interests of your people and the legitimate workings of the political process above your party. Without these ingredients, elections alone do not make true democracy.

because it will allow soldiers under the direction of the defense minister to arrest civilians under a military code of justice.The move indicated that, at least in the short term, Egypt’s powerful military was lining up behind the new Islamist president to complete the transition to a new constitution.

This will be interesting.
So far military has been on the sidelines. This puts them directly into the mix.

Hey, VorDaj, & remember when we had a free America? When there was no TSA doing legal molestations?
Sorry for being so down today, I’m feeling the weight of Obamacare taxes taking hold, & waiting for a homeless group of people showing up at my doorstep with homesteader rights from Dear Leader.
& Boehner, following in the fiscal socialist Bush’s footsteps on damaging conservatism.
& Nancy getting her gavel back in 2014.
Hmmm, which country shall our Dear Leader imperialize next? Or what is his next game of drones when he gets bored with golf?

Hey, VorDaj, & remember when we had a free America? When there was no TSA doing legal molestations? Sorry for being so down today, I’m feeling the weight of Obamacare taxes taking hold, & waiting for a homeless group of people showing up at my doorstep with homesteader rights from Dear Leader. & Boehner, following in the fiscal socialist Bush’s footsteps on damaging conservatism.

Belle on December 10, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Attention passengers! Welcome to the U.S. of P.C. and C.Y.A. As you work your way through the current state of America, for you own good, please make sure that any inconvenient facts and associated criticisms are stored neatly within yourself. Otherwise, Pharaoh Hussein Louie Obamalini , Big Sis Napoleon and their dedicated Gropestapo will come to help you reorder your priorities. You are welcome to file a complain via the soon to be Islamic FCC regulated Internet. We apologize if your federal officials cannot respond to every inquiry. They may merely be previously committed to representing other more lucrative interests more relevant to their own pocketbooks. And as always, have a nice day.

having its Islamist allies inside the military start purging the more secular officers

“purging” feared elements by the people in power has been going on for 5,000 years over there. Why is anyone surprised? The IDF is going to have their hands full and that thing in the wh won’t give them much support.

Why would the military leadership, which partnered with the west for decades under Mubarak and takes billions from the U.S. even now, go for something like that?

Well what exactly was the Egyptian army supposed to do? Go toe to toe with the Muslim Brotherhood for a couple of decades of bloody low level warfare? The liberal protesters bring precisely nothing but high hopes and empty dreams to the table. They live in a Muslim country that doesn’t support democracy, and a society that lacks the fundamentals to make democracy work.

They may replace Morsi, but they have to live with the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian army is a conscript army and they have to keep in mind that the recruits may not follow some orders if it comes right down to it.

I stand by my opinion that it was planned & expected.
They saw the wonderful dictatorship that took over in the Gaza Strip. What better way to fire missiles at Israel, they said.
So with pride & joy, the globalists, marxists & progressives supported the Arab Spring aka destruction of civilized life. They won’t be totally happy until the entire Middle east is Islamic, & that is not good news for Israel.

Disgusting. THIS is the kind of foreign policy disaster we can expect from socialist Democrats…. another Islamic tyranny is born, and under Obama’s ham-handed watch. But then again, maybe it’s not “ham-handed”, maybe the guy really is deliberately helping to create Islamic tyrannies. I mean, there comes a point at which simple stupidity isn’t a believable excuse anymore. When something is soooooo obvious that anybody with eyes could see it coming, he’d have to be a drooling moron to be credible.

WHY are we still giving these people our tax dollars? It’s not like we’re not printing or borrowing every cent we spend. We’re PAYING these people to subjugate women and persecute their minority citizens.

Any way you slice it, Barack Obama and the Democrat Party OWN this mess, and everything that happens in the future is their fault.

I stand by my opinion that it was planned & expected.
They saw the wonderful dictatorship that took over in the Gaza Strip. What better way to fire missiles at Israel, they said.
So with pride & joy, the globalists, marxists & progressives supported the Arab Spring aka destruction of civilized life. They won’t be totally happy until the entire Middle east is Islamic, & that is not good news for Israel.

Axe, I agree. Sinister & inept.
Hey, txhsmom, Saddam Hussein was a better Iraqi dictator than what they have now; at the very least he kept the shiite’s in check.
Hey, progressives, you don’t know anything about foreign policy!
Selfish children running the country.

How come this clown doesn’t wear a white tent and head scarf like his muslim brothers?

why doesn’t obama wear one either?

I’m sure we can count on one of the tax payer vacations to a 5 star hotel like moochelle likes to take with 500 of her closest friends to one of these forsaken arab places prior to oblamo leaving office

This was completely expected, no surprise at all. At least Mubarak was our dictator.
I was reading Dick Cheney’s book yesterday. He wrote how helpful Mubarak was in Desert Storm when Dick was Secretary of Defense. It’s a good book.