Because trucks need so much hauling power, they have eluded electrification until recently; a battery that could pull significant weight would itself be too hefty and too expensive. But now, improvements in battery technology are paying off, bringing down both size and cost.

Already buoying passenger car sales, the trend is now boosting the EV truck market, says Lisa Jerram, a principal research analyst for Navigant Research. Electric technology for big, heavy vehicles has also gotten a boost from smog-savvy city governments’ investments in electric buses.

According to a recent report by Jerram, the number of hybrid-electric and electric trucks is set to grow almost 25 percent annually, from 1 percent of the market in 2017 to 7 percent in 2027, a jump from about 40,000 electric trucks worldwide this year to 371,000.

Numerous trucking manufacturers are now producing all-electric trucks or planning to, says David Alexander, research director of UK-based Truck Technology Ltd. and a coauthor of the report.

China’s BYD already has electric trucks on the road, while Daimler Mitsubishi’s FUSO is expected to be rolling soon. Smaller companies—Arrival (UK), Chanje (U.S., China), E_FORCE (Switzerland), Tevva Motors (UK), and Workhorse (U.S.)—have launched electric trucks in local markets, Alexander says. And major truck companies such as Volvo, Scania, MAN (VW) and Navistar are testing prototype electric trucks, aiming to bring them to market by 2020.

When Mercedes-Benz unveiled its Urban eTruck prototype in 2016, it billed it as the first fully electric truck for heavy distribution operations up to 26 tonnes. The company said then that a market launch could be “at the beginning of the next decade.” Credit: Daimler

The trucking industry is diverse, with a range of sizes and loads. Long-haul 18-wheelers are not yet ready to go electric, but mid-sized delivery trucks for urban deliveries are, Jerram says. It’s not just range; diesel is pretty efficient for steady, long-distance hauling, so it’s harder for electric trucks to compete on cost, she says.

Urban delivery trucks, on the other hand, typically do a lot of stopping and starting, so their total distance driven is not that long. Plus that kind of driving in a diesel truck releases a lot of sooty exhaust, contributing to health problem in cities and ports where trucks idle.

Decreasing local air pollution was a key motivation in a project financed by the Department of Energy in the Houston area, where pollution routinely exceeds national air quality standards. In late 2015, UPS deployed 18 Workhorse experimental electric delivery trucks. The company has more than 120 fully electric delivery trucks in California, New York and Texas and more than 140 abroad, in Barbados, Canada, Europe and Japan. And it recently announced that it will deploy three new eCanter medium-duty electric trucks from Daimler’s FUSO. These lithium-ion-battery-powered trucks have a range of about 62 miles and can haul 2 to 3 tons.

In New York City alone, a lot more UPS trucks could be electric soon. A partnership with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority and Unique Electric Solutions will help convert existing UPS diesel trucks to electric. They are hoping to convert up to 1,500 UPS trucks in New York City by 2022.

Globally, regulations such as proposed bans on internal combustion engines in France, the UK, China and India are helping to create this market, Jerram says. Although some of those targets are vague or years away, some regions are taking more concrete steps. The California Air Resources Control Board’s Advanced Clean Local Trucks plan has proposed that 2.5 percent of truck sales be zero emissions starting in 2023, rising to 15 percent by 2030.

But what was long an industry barrier to adoption of electric trucks may prove to be its greatest boon.

“There’s a business case that electric trucks will save fleet operators a lot of money,” Jerram says. In an industry with tight margins, that could sway the market, especially as operations prices continues to drop as compared with diesel.

UPS is working with New York state and the company Unique Electric Solutions to design a way to convert its traditionally diesel delivery trucks to run on electric power. If the project works, UPS says two-thirds of its New York City fleet could be converted to electric by 2022. Credit: UPS

“Big fleets—FedEx, UPS, Walmart—they know they can actually save a lot of money on fuel and overall maintenance,” Jerram says. That’s because electric vehicles have fewer moving parts that can break and generate less heat that causes stress on mechanics than internal combustion engines. There’s no need for oil changes and there is less wear on the brakes because of regenerative braking, she says. For example, Daimler claims its eCanter model will save more than $1,000 in operating costs approximately every 6,200 miles.

Still, it’s early days in electric trucking. The three eCanter trucks Daimler will deliver to UPS in the new year are part of a limited run of 150 trucks in the United States, Japan and Europe, Allen says.

While truck range has increased with battery technology improvements, it’s still a weight game, he says. In trucking, you want as much weight as possible in the goods being hauled, not in a heavy battery.

“The reality is that the batteries weigh a lot more to get that range that the truck driver needs,” he says. But the technology is continuing to improve, so FUSO is offering this truck as a two-year lease. “We didn’t want to penalize partners like UPS,” which want to be industry leaders, he says. “They operate the truck for two years. Then they turn it in, and we offer them the latest and greatest truck.”

Pepsi, when it recently placed a big advance order for the new electric truck promised by Tesla, noted that it sees ways to balance the weight equations. Among the snack foods the company routinely delivers are light packets of chips and much heavier beverages. Deliveries can be customized to maximize the range—and minimize the expense.

Heavy Duty Trucks — for Local Jobs

Although, electric trucks can’t yet replace the long-haul big rigs you see on cross-country road trips, companies are starting to roll out heavy-duty trucks for local use, such transporting goods from port to warehouse or as a garbage truck, Jerram says.

BYD has them on the road. Toyota has a fuel cell-powered heavy-duty truck undergoing trials in California, according to Alexander. FUSO recently announced a heavy-duty prototype called Vision One that it claims will have a range of about 217 miles and a hauling payload of 11 tons—just 2 tons less than a diesel rig of the same class.

It’s not surprising that China’s BYD is early out of the gate, with the first electric heavy-duty truck on the road.

“They are the largest country market we’ve forecasted for all types of electrified trucks,” Jerram says. “And if you add in Japan, the Asia Pacific region is definitely the leader.” China’s emphasis on electric bikes, cars, buses and now trucks is a strategy to deal with its air pollution—and they have a business interest, Jerram says. “A lot of Chinese manufacturers are coming into all sections of the vehicle market.”

As electric trucks make up more and more of our fleets, other things will change, too. Moving away from diesel means that “everything changes,” Allen says, “from how the trucks are serviced to fuel stations.”

Seemingly in anticipation of surging demand for electric light-duty commercial vehicles as stricter regulations go into effect, Renault has formed a new joint venture in China with the firm Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Ltd.

The new joint venture will be focused on the design and production of light-duty commercial vehicles to be sold under the Renault, Jinbei, and Huasong brand names. The plan is reportedly for the new joint venture to sell 150,000 vehicles a year by 2022.

It’s not clear yet what portion of that figure relates to the sale of plug-in electric vehicles, but considering that Renault has a number of offerings already developed in that regard it would figure that they’re intended to represent a large portion. Additionally, note the end of this opening line in the press release (emphasis added): “Groupe Renault and Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited (Brilliance) have confirmed signing a contract for the formation of a joint venture to manufacture and sell light commercial vehicles (LCV) under the Jinbei, Renault and Huasong brands with the goal of achieving 150,000 sales annually by 2022 and an acceleration of electrifying powertrains.“

“The new JV will be known as Renault-Brilliance-Jinbei Automotive Co., Ltd. with manufacturing operations in the Dadong District of Shenyang and will locally produce three key segments—MPVs, medium vans and heavy vans. The Chinese LCV market is reaching upwards of 3 million units annually,” the press release adds.

Reuters provides some more context worthy of consideration: “Ford Motor Co is overhauling its China plans in order to reinvigorate its business in the world’s biggest auto market which has struggled to grow this year. As part of that review, Ford will likely focus on electric commercial vans — a shift that fits well with the company’s reckoning that a best play globally for electrification and autonomous driving might be in commercial and delivery vehicles.”

Is this segment still underserved? Are the offerings from Renault, Nissan, StreetScooter, and a few others well below the demand electric vehicles in the segment could attract today?

With regard to the Renault-Brilliance-Jinbei Automotive Co joint venture, Renault will be acquiring a 49% stake in Brilliance’s current LCV unit Shenyang Brilliance Jinbei Automobile Co (SBJ). So, essentially, SBJ will now be 51% owned by Brilliance China and 49% owned by Renault.