The Lions lost their captain Sam Warburton on Monday, less than 48 hours after the Welsh flanker turned in one of the heroic performances of the tour in attempting to resist the Wallabies as they levelled things up at one Test apiece in Melbourne. As they received confirmation of the news they had been dreading, the visitors were wondering whether they had lost the series into the bargain.

Warburton’s hamstring injury – a significant tear of the muscle,
according to the Lions medic Dr Eanna Falvey – is a grievous blow.
The Cardiff Blues player described this dark development as “
incredibly disappointing”, and while there was no immediate comment
from the Lions hierarchy, they would rather have heard that the
world was about to end.

Warren Gatland, the head coach, chose the openside specialist as
leader ahead of more experienced candidates, including the Irish
stalwarts Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell, because he knew how
influential he would be when the chips were down.

After suffering the injury midway through the final quarter of
Saturday’s narrow defeat at the Docklands Stadium – he had just
produced 60-odd minutes of the most committed back-row play
imaginable – the Welshman stayed behind in Melbourne for a scan
while the rest of the squad flew to the Queensland coast for a
brief spell of relaxation. The scan results were grim. There was
some suggestion on Monday that his recovery time would be measured
in months rather than weeks.

His absence from this weekend’s final Test in Sydney, where the
Australians are likely to start as firm favourites, will inevitably
lead to a strategic and tactical rethink by Gatland and his fellow
coaches. They could simply replace him with another Welsh
breakaway, Justin Tipuric of Ospreys, whose form has been strong
during the tour, albeit against weak opposition. But equally, the
selectors could decide Warburton’s withdrawal demands a
root-and-branch reconsideration of the options at loose
forward.

It is well known that Warburton is happiest when playing
alongside the hard-tackling Wales blindside specialist Dan Lydiate:
indeed, the two of them were paired in Melbourne as Gatland went in
search of the victory that would have brought the Lions a first
series triumph in 16 years. But the downside of that selection
became clear at the line-out, where the demotion of the England
flanker Tom Croft to the bench was felt most acutely, the set-piece
duly going pear-shaped. Does Warburton’s misfortune automatically
obviate the need for the workaholic Lydiate? This will be
discussed, at length.

Leading on from this, might Croft’s reappearance in the starting
back row signal the end of the road for the Irish No 8 Jamie
Heaslip, whose form at Test level has been underwhelming at best? A
flank combination of Croft and Tipuric would cry out for Toby
Faletau of Wales in the central position: a No 8 who plays in prose
rather than poetry, but makes more than his fair share of hard
yards with ball in hand. If the coaches choose to reject the claims
of Tipuric, the versatile Irish forward Sean O’Brien will perform
the fetching duties in the No 7 shirt.

There are several other selectorial conundrums to be solved by
Gatland and company: in fact, there could ultimately be
changes in each row of the scrum, at half-back and in midfield. Not
all of these potential switches can be laid at the door of
Warburton’s dodgy hamstring, but it is certainly the case that his
sudden disappearance has prompted a serious debate in all
sorts of areas.

While the Lions were feeling sorry for themselves on the
Sunshine Coast – a name wholly out of sync with the current
desperate weather conditions – the Wallabies were doing everything
in their power to keep their own captain, the outstanding lock
James Horwill, in contention for the Sydney date. The Queenslander
was yesterday re-tried on a charge of stamping on the head of his
rival second-rower, Alun Wyn Jones, during the first Test in
Brisbane, having been cleared of the offence, somewhat
unfathomably, in the original hearing a little over a week ago.

Following an appeal by the International Rugby Board, which has
been made to look more than a little ridiculous in recent days, a
new judicial officer, Graeme Mew, who holds Canadian and British
passports, conducted the hearing via video link and was considering
his verdict when Horwill headed for bed. Understandably, given that
this is Test week and the Wallaby backs James O’Connor and Kurtley
Beale have already landed themselves in a small ocean of hot water
during this series for staying up until silly o’clock while on
international duty, the Australians were in no hurry to interrupt
their skipper’s sleep with news of the decision. His chances of
playing in Sydney remained in the balance as Mew sifted the
evidence.

Should the Wallabies lose Horwill, they will feel as much pain
as the Lions are feeling over Warburton. The lock holds a fragile
Australian pack together. With the scrum-half Will Genia, he is the
man the home side cannot hope to replace. If the Lions were
frustrated to see him on the field in Melbourne – they felt the
video footage of the Jones incident had him bang to rights – they
will be really hacked off of if he trots out again this
weekend.

Limping lions: Onjury update

Alex Corbisiero

Loosehead prop injured a calf in first Test victory and was
ruled out of second Test defeat but now back in contention

Jamie Roberts

Centre is raring to go for decider after missing first two Tests
with hamstring injured in warm-up victory against the Waratahs.

Sam Warburton

Captain injured his left hamstring during the second Test
defeat. Flanker is ruled out of the final Test.

Mike Phillips

Scrum-half has been struggling with a knee injury on tour. Had
an ‘inflammation injection’ to cure the problem.