MACC is developing services to support institutions that are providing advice and warnings related to atmospheric composition. In the case of the current Icelandic volcanic eruption, the direct responsibility for advice for aviation for the region lies with the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre at the Met Office.

MACC already has the capability to make pre-operational plume forecasts using its advanced data assimilation system for atmospheric composition. Assumptions have to be made about the amount of gas and ash, particle size and weight, and the height of the injection of these constituents into the atmosphere. The latter depends to a large extent on the explosiveness of the eruption. The movie shows the plume of a sulphur-dioxide-like tracer (total columns) as forecasted by the MACC system with the current London VAAC injection height estimate. Work is in progress to extend the current capability of gas plume forecasts to include forecasts of volcanic ash particles.

When MACC reaches its operational phase, by 2014 at the latest, it will be able to use actual information about volcanic eruptions in combination with operational observations of atmospheric constituents, for instance from Europe’s Sentinel satellite missions, to produce plume forecasts in a timely manner. These will be provided on request to the relevant institutions to help them assess the situation and provide detailed information. This would include the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres but also agencies dealing with the impact on public health.

In the meantime, the MACC system will be used to diagnose the current event to learn how accurately the spread of the plume can be forecasted, the impact of the available satellite data, and what new observations are needed for future monitoring and forecasting. More detailed forecasts as well as information about available observations can be found on our dedicated Iceland Volcanic Eruption page.

MACC-III is a Coordination & Support Action (2014-2015) funded by the European Union under the Horizon 2020 Programme.
It is coordinated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and operated by a 36-member consortium.