Polls show Obama surge in California

ST. LOUIS –Sen. Barack Obama has surged in California and substantially narrowed or erased the double-digit lead once held there by Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to three polls released this weekend. Obama leads Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent among California Democrats in a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll of 1,141 likely voters with a 2.9 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted from January 31 to February 2.

A California Field Poll also showed strong movement toward Obama. After trailing Clinton 39 percent to 27 percent as recently as mid-January—and after trailing her by 30 points in an August Field Poll—Obama has pulled into a statistical tie with Clinton. Clinton was favored by 36 percent to Obama’s 34 percent. A sizable portion of voters, 18 percent, remain undecided.

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The poll was based on a survey of 511 likely voters in the Democratic primary and was conducted between Jan. 25 and Feb. 1. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

A bright spot for Clinton was a McClatchy-MSNBC poll that had her leading Obama by nine percentage points, 45 percent to 36 percent. The poll of 400 likely Democratic voters had a 5 point margin of error.

The surveys came as both campaigns continue to crisscross the country making their closing arguments with voters in the more than 20 states who will go to the polls and caucuses Tuesday. Obama’s gains in California are especially significant because the state has 370 delegates at stake, more than any other state.

“It is tightening. I can feel it a little bit,” said California Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, a Clinton booster who added that Clinton will do well in the state.

But in a race marked by its unpredictability, both camps were careful not to put too much emphasis on the polling data.

“Ultimately, it’s a race for delegates and I think we’ve learned from the last contests, I would never bet money on polls. But I feel that we have strong momentum,” said Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Clinton spokesman Jay Carson said the poll numbers did not worry the campaign.

“Tuesday’s going to be a tight day for everybody, but I think there are enough cautionary tales about polls in just this election that people should take them with a grain of salt,” he said. “You only need to look to New Hampshire in our direction and South Carolina in his to see that polls aren’t necessarily the most reliable predictors.”

Polls failed to predict the eventual outcomes in either state.

Obama, Clinton and their surrogates have spent considerable time in California over the last few days. Clinton spent all day Friday stumping up and down the coast while Obama held an event and a press conference on Thursday and Friday.

“I think what we’re seeing in California is what we’re seeing across the country,” Psaki said. “When the people get to know Barack Obama, they often become more comfortable with him as a candidate and consider coming in our direction.”

Pollsters caution against drawing too many conclusions about a state that began early voting on Jan. 7, where as many as half of the Democratic votes are expected to be cast early. According to the Field Poll, 12 percent of the Democratic voters already voted for or expressed a preference for a candidate other than those who remain in the running. Over half of these voters were early mail ballot voters, and have already sent them in.