Packers and Lions Are Trending in Opposite Directions

The Lions were heavy underdogs against Randall Cobb, center, and the Packers in Week 10, but won in Green Bay, 18-16.CreditJoe Robbins/Getty Images

By Chase Stuart

Dec. 3, 2015

The Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions had very different Novembers. How they fare during the first game of December might decide the fate of the N.F.C. North.

At the end of October, the Packers were 6-0 and Super Bowl front-runners. Little has gone right for the team since: Green Bay has won only one of their last five games, with the passing game being the biggest reason for the team’s struggles. The Packers have been defined by Aaron Rodgers, but the efficiency of the passing attack has declined significantly since the start of the season. Rodgers’s adjusted net yards per attempt has been trending in the wrong direction.

When the Lions met the Packers in Week 10, they were 1-7 and had not won on the road against the Packers since 1991. The Packers were 10.5-point favorites, but Detroit was victorious that day, marking the largest upset of the season to date. The Lions followed that win up with two more.

Detroit has been boosted by all three units.

Against Green Bay, special teams carried the day. Matt Prater hit field goals from 49 and 51 yards, Ameer Abdullah returned a kickoff 104 yards, and punter Sam Martin helped the Lions win the field position battle. Excluding Green Bay’s possession after recovering an onside kick, the Packers’ offensive drives started, on average, at their own 19.

The following week, the Lions’ defense stole the show against Oakland. The Raiders’ offense has been well above-average this year, but Detroit limited Oakland to a season-low 216 yards. The Lions’ secondary, powered by cornerbacks Darius Slay and Quandre Diggs, forced Derek Carr into his worst full game of the season.

On Thanksgiving, a pair of familiar faces lead the way for the Lions. Matthew Stafford threw for five touchdown passes, three of them to Calvin Johnson. Detroit scored 45 points on six offensive touchdowns, with both marks setting season highs.

Despite the teams trending in different directions, Las Vegas is not particularly convinced that much has changed. While the home team generally receives 3 points, the line for Thursday’s game is visiting Green Bay by 3, which makes this pretty unusual.

From 2010 to 2014, only three teams beat a division opponent on the road as underdogs of a touchdown or greater, and then were underdogs in the rematch at home. Two of those instances involved injured star quarterbacks. In 2014, Washington beat Dallas after Tony Romo got hurt, and in 2013, Chicago beat Green Bay in a game Rodgers left early because of an injury. The third instance involved the 2013 Jaguars: Jacksonville was an underdog in every game that season, but won the first matchup on the road against Tennessee and Houston.

Thursday’s game will have a huge impact on how the N.F.C. North shakes out. According to The Upshot, Green Bay’s odds of winning the division would fall to 41 percent with a loss, but rise to 60 percent with a victory. The Packers are the only team left on Detroit’s schedule with a winning record; the Upshot projects the Lions to have a 57 percent chance of making the playoffs if they can win out.