February 27, 2012 Castleton Poll Results

February 27, 2012

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Generally speaking, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Generally speaking, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

1. Right Direction

36%

36%

36%

39%

36%

35%

9%

33%

59%

22%

33%

43%

48%

2. Wrong track

53%

56%

50%

54%

52%

53%

87%

55%

27%

69%

59%

43%

42%

8. Not sure (vol.)

11%

7%

14%

8%

11%

12%

4%

11%

14%

9%

8%

14%

10%

9. Refused (vol.)

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

800

363

437

66

458

253

147

337

214

200

165

272

153

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

1 Approve

56%

51%

60%

59%

56%

54%

9%

55%

89%

40%

46%

65%

71%

2 Disapprove

33%

38%

28%

27%

32%

37%

83%

32%

5%

47%

37%

27%

19%

8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.)

11%

10%

12%

13%

12%

9%

8%

13%

7%

12%

17%

7%

9%

9 Refuse to answer (vol.)

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

Total

Unweighted Count

800

363

437

66

458

253

147

337

214

200

165

272

153

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Some people have called for a constitutional amendment that would allow government to put limits on the amounts that wealthy individuals and interest groups could spend on political campaigns. Would you favor or oppose such an amendment?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Some people have called for a constitutional amendment that would allow government to put limits on the amounts that wealthy individuals and interest groups could spend on political campaigns. Favor or oppose?

1 Oppose strongly

8%

13%

4%

8%

5%

12%

10%

10%

4%

6%

8%

9%

8%

2 Oppose somewhat

7%

7%

7%

7%

6%

8%

13%

5%

6%

9%

10%

4%

6%

3 Favor somewhat

18%

17%

19%

22%

18%

15%

21%

17%

18%

18%

18%

19%

15%

4 Favor strongly

58%

58%

58%

52%

64%

53%

36%

61%

68%

52%

59%

58%

66%

8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.)

9%

5%

12%

10%

6%

12%

19%

6%

5%

14%

5%

9%

5%

9 Refused to answer (vol.)

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

800

363

437

66

458

253

147

337

214

200

165

272

153

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Would you favor or oppose increasing the term for Vermont governors from two years to four years, or do you have no opinion on this matter?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Would you favor or oppose increasing the term for Vermont governors from two years to four years, or do you have no opinion on this matter?

1 Favor 4-year term

58%

61%

54%

48%

63%

58%

51%

61%

65%

40%

54%

63%

77%

2 Oppose 4-year term

25%

22%

27%

27%

23%

25%

34%

26%

15%

36%

30%

20%

11%

8 Have no opinion

17%

17%

18%

25%

14%

17%

15%

13%

19%

22%

15%

18%

12%

9 Refuse to answer

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

800

363

437

66

458

253

147

337

214

200

165

272

153

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012How likely are you to vote in this year's presidential primary?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

How likely are you to vote in this year's presidential primary?

Definitely will vote (vol.)

16%

15%

17%

14%

12%

24%

14%

20%

14%

16%

18%

16%

14%

Very likely

53%

53%

52%

44%

56%

53%

67%

49%

53%

54%

54%

49%

59%

Somewhat likely

12%

11%

14%

16%

13%

8%

8%

13%

11%

14%

13%

10%

12%

Not likely

14%

17%

12%

21%

13%

11%

10%

14%

15%

11%

11%

19%

12%

Will not vote (vol.)

3%

3%

3%

5%

3%

2%

4%

5%

2%

4%

4%

2%

Not sure (vol.)

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

Refuse to answer (vol.)

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

780

355

425

66

450

242

146

329

206

194

161

265

150

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Are you more likely to vote in the Republican or the Democratic Presidential primary?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Are you more likely to vote in the Republican or the Democratic Presidential primary?

Republican Primary

35%

42%

29%

32%

36%

34%

89%

35%

3%

35%

41%

35%

31%

Democratic Primary

44%

36%

50%

44%

46%

42%

38%

90%

37%

39%

45%

60%

Not sure (vol.)

17%

18%

17%

23%

14%

21%

8%

24%

6%

24%

19%

16%

8%

Refuse to answer (vol.)

4%

4%

3%

2%

4%

3%

3%

4%

0%

4%

2%

5%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

644

282

362

50

370

206

129

270

170

162

138

210

128

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president this year?

4 Very satisfied

7%

7%

7%

10%

4%

9%

4%

13%

7%

5%

10%

3%

3 Somewhat satisfied

39%

43%

35%

30%

38%

48%

48%

30%

19%

44%

44%

37%

28%

2 Somewhat dissatisfied

32%

30%

33%

49%

32%

23%

31%

33%

13%

34%

36%

25%

33%

1 Very dissatisfied

18%

15%

21%

21%

17%

18%

6%

29%

55%

10%

10%

22%

36%

8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.)

4%

5%

4%

3%

6%

5%

3%

5%

4%

6%

9 Refused to answer (vol.)

0%

1%

2%

1%

2%

Total

Unweighted Count

226

124

102

16

132

69

116

94

6

52

62

73

38

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination ...

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Vote in Republican Primary

Mitt Romney

34%

38%

30%

30%

35%

36%

35%

31%

43%

32%

35%

31%

42%

Newt Gingrich

10%

10%

10%

10%

10%

11%

11%

10%

8%

18%

5%

8%

Rick Santorum

27%

25%

29%

30%

25%

29%

35%

19%

33%

27%

24%

23%

Ron Paul

14%

12%

17%

26%

16%

7%

5%

28%

15%

10%

20%

9%

Jon Huntsman

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

16%

3%

Other

1%

1%

2%

3%

1%

15%

2%

2%

Not sure

4%

5%

3%

5%

3%

3%

5%

4%

1%

4%

9%

Refused

9%

8%

9%

5%

9%

10%

10%

6%

25%

7%

6%

13%

8%

Total

Unweighted Count

231

127

104

16

133

72

117

97

7

53

64

75

38

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Now, how likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the March 6th Primary?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Now, how likely are you to change your mind about your choice before the March 6th Primary?

1 Very likely to change mind

8%

10%

6%

10%

6%

10%

8%

7%

2%

14%

6%

13%

2 Somewhat likely to change mind

36%

33%

40%

45%

39%

28%

40%

34%

39%

57%

35%

29%

19%

3 Unlikely to change mind

34%

39%

28%

25%

37%

35%

34%

35%

32%

27%

34%

36%

40%

4 Will definitely not change mind (vol.)

10%

7%

15%

16%

7%

15%

7%

14%

17%

2%

5%

17%

22%

8 Not sure (vol.)

9%

9%

10%

5%

8%

13%

11%

9%

13%

11%

10%

10%

6%

9 Refused (vol.)

2%

2%

1%

3%

2%

1%

2%

2%

2%

Total

Unweighted Count

226

124

102

16

132

69

116

94

6

52

62

73

38

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Regardless who you support ... Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating President Obama in the 2012 general election?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Regardless who you support ... Which of the Republican candidates do you think has the best chance of defeating President Obama in the 2012 general election?

Mitt Romney

47%

53%

42%

42%

51%

45%

57%

41%

53%

40%

46%

47%

60%

Newt Gingrich

4%

5%

3%

4%

6%

6%

4%

2%

5%

4%

3%

3%

Rick Santorum

13%

14%

12%

11%

14%

11%

18%

14%

8%

15%

16%

11%

8%

Ron Paul

4%

5%

4%

10%

4%

2%

1%

4%

7%

5%

1%

7%

1%

Someone else

1%

1%

1%

2%

0%

1%

2%

1%

0%

All or any of them

1%

1%

2%

0%

2%

0%

2%

0%

None of them

9%

8%

10%

5%

8%

12%

4%

9%

11%

10%

7%

9%

11%

Not sure

10%

5%

14%

18%

8%

9%

6%

10%

10%

12%

13%

9%

6%

Refused

12%

7%

15%

12%

11%

14%

6%

14%

10%

11%

10%

13%

12%

Total

Unweighted Count

664

290

374

50

378

217

130

278

178

168

142

217

131

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Would you favor or oppose making the Vermont primaries earlier in the calendar year in order to give Vermont voters a larger role in the selection of the party presidential candidates?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Would you favor or oppose making the Vermont primaries earlier in the calendar year in order to give Vermont voters a larger role in the selection of the party presidential candidates?

1 Favor moving up the date

29%

24%

33%

48%

30%

17%

27%

29%

31%

35%

39%

25%

14%

2 Oppose moving up the date

43%

46%

40%

27%

44%

51%

47%

42%

44%

39%

33%

46%

55%

8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.)

28%

30%

26%

26%

26%

32%

25%

29%

25%

26%

28%

28%

31%

9 Refuse to answer (vol.)

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

Total

Unweighted Count

664

290

374

50

378

217

130

278

178

168

142

217

131

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Would you still favor moving the primaries to an earlier date if it were to cost the state more tax payer funds to hold presidential primaries in advance of Town meeting day?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Would you still favor moving the primaries to an earlier date if it were to cost the state more tax payer funds to hold presidential primaries in advance of Town meeting day?

1 Still favor

21%

21%

21%

17%

21%

25%

20%

19%

22%

19%

22%

22%

24%

2 Oppose

66%

60%

70%

68%

67%

64%

77%

62%

69%

73%

57%

68%

61%

8 Not sure / No opinion (vol.)

13%

18%

9%

15%

12%

12%

3%

20%

9%

8%

20%

9%

14%

9 Refuse to answer (vol.)

0%

1%

1%

1%

Total

Unweighted Count

175

57

118

21

114

37

36

70

47

61

42

51

19

Castleton Polling Institute -- February 2012Which one of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president in 2012?

Total

Gender

Respondent age

Party Affiliation

Level of Education

Male

Female

18 - 34

35 - 64

65 and older

Republican

Independent

Democrat

HS degree or less

Some college

College degree

Post graduate degree

Which one of the following issues matters most to you in deciding your vote for president in 2012?