Theme 5 Very large public debt and low economic vitality will prompt unprecedented questions about how governments can discharge their obligations without changing the rules of the game.

One way of looking at this is to realize that governments are more willing to default on social obligations – such as changing the retirement age – than on financial obligations

Theme 10 Debt hang-hover will test social and political cohesiveness.

In several countries – including some highly advanced ones like Iceland or Ireland, but also Latvia or Hungary, as well as in some much poorer countries like Jamaica – a great sacrifice is required from the respective populations. Cohesive and/or very enduring societies like the Baltic countries, Iceland or Ireland have accepted sacrifices (salary cuts, public spending cuts, etc.) that would have seemed unimaginable a few years ago and continue to seem hardly replicable in comparable societies.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Market Quotes From Rosenberg & Hussman

The quotes along with the cartoon reflect pretty much my market outlook ...... Be very careful if you are long ( congratiolations to the courage ) this market...... I´m still sticking with my view that from a risk/reward perspective it makes no sense ( Goldman & BofA Merrill Lynch & JP Morgan & John Paulson beg to differ...... ) to invest ( long term exception Gold, short term it looks a little bit crowded ) in this market. Most Insiders ( Ratio 98:1 ) are also a lot more "cautious"......... And everybody pointing out to the "strong" jobs report on Friday as a sign that fundamentals are playing catch up with this "priced for v-shaped-perfection market" again should take a look at this amusing clip :-)

"Over the past decade, the stature of the market as an effective discounting mechanism has gradually eroded. The observation and analysis of potential risks – though essential to long-term investing and loss avoidance – is far less actionable than one might expect. Investors will evidently speculate as long they have dice in their hands and the casino is not visibly on fire."

Rusal, the world’s largest aluminum producer, which is struggling under $17 billion in debt, is close to an agreement with about 70 banks to restructure its loans on terms considered favorable to the company and its billionaire owner, bankers said on Wednesday

The banks will allow Rusal to operate essentially under a pay-as-you-can agreement, though pegged to aluminum prices, according to terms made public this year. The company will be permitted to roll missed payments into the capital and begin repaying principal only when the global economy recovers, and with it prices for aluminum.

Russian aluminum giant Rusal said Thursday it has signed a deal on the comprehensive restructuring of its debt of $16.8 billion. The restructuring of $7.4 billion debt to international lenders will be split into two phases, the company said. During the initial four-year period, principal repayments will be made on a "pay-if-you-can" basis predicated on the performance of the business, while the second phase will involve the refinancing of the remaining debt by current lenders for an additional three years.

Rusal has also signed agreements on the restructuring of $2.1 billion of debt with its Russian lenders. It has also agreed with Onexim, a Russian investment fund, to restructure $2.7 billion in debt and to convert $1.82 billion of debt into a 6% shareholding in Rusal. The remaining $880 million of debt will be restructured on the same terms as applicable to the international lenders, with the accumulated interest thereon to be paid in cash.

Rusal's CEO Oleg Deripaska said Rusal "is ready to focus on implementing its new strategic objectives." There has been media speculation in recent weeks that Rusal is preparing for an initial public offering in Hong Kong, though the company hasn't confirmed these reports ( Deripaska plays down Rusal delay > no quick "pump & dump"....)

But the green light was given on the condition that it won't sell the deal to retail investors, in a bid to "protect" Hong Kong's retail investors from the complexities of the deal ( No "pump & dump" )

I urge everybody to read page 6 from the following High Hendry report about the outlook of the aluminium market ( after he met with management of Norsk Hydro ).....I´m pretty sure the banks have "calculated" this "rosy" outlook in their "pay-if-you-can" repayment shedule..... The clip Prime Minister Putin Bitch Slaps Oleg Deripaska also taken from the report is "hillarious"!