Eli Lilly Drug Results, Upgrade Send Shares to Four-Year High

By Avi Salzman

Eli Lilly (LLY) is the hottest pharmaceutical stock out there right now, as its experimental Alzheimer’s drug solanezumab is generating quite a bit of buzz. Lilly was upgraded to Neutral today by Goldman Sachs as solanezumab “provides a backbone for the recent ‘hope trade,’” wrote analyst Jami Rubin.

Lilly reached as high as $53.55 per share today, its highest level in more than four years.

About 30% of patients with early-stage of Alzheimer’s showed benefits to memory and after taking solanezumab in a recent study, researchers announced at a conference on Monday. the drug hasn’t been approved by the FDA, and the company has not yet discussed the steps it will take to attempt to win approval.

Analysts are now scrambling to calculate the potential benefits from solanezumab — Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez sees it as “a potential multi-billion dollar blockbuster” drug. Of course, analysts still have to account for the uncertainty over whether it will be approved.

“Our valuation increases to $52/share assuming a 30-50% probability of $5B in sales in 2022,
despite what is a modest signal of cognitive benefit at 18 months. Given our positive views on the outcome of the Alimta patent challenge, we see little downside holding LLY into the update from the company’s interactions with FDA.”

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OCTOBER 10, 2012 7:18 A.M.

Daniel Lexington wrote:

There is one known cure for Alzheimer's: GRAZOPH TEMUNA, grazoph.com. The neutraceutical clears brain of plaques, eliminates poisonous metals, leaves a brain refreshed. Both cures and prevents Alzheimer's. We ask that this not be reviewed by any doctor who is not knowledgeable about Heart Enzyme Chemistry - lunatic doctors who know nothing are our worst problem.

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