This blog continues the discussion that we began with Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics (Rowman and Littlefield, 2009) and continue in After Hope and Change: The 2012 Elections and American Politics (Rowman and Littlefield, 2013).Building on these books, this blog offers insights, analysis, and facts about recent events.

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Monday, August 30, 2010

An Elephant's Year?

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats -- one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

The Republican leads of 6, 7, and 10 points this month are all higher than any previous midterm Republican advantage in Gallup's history of tracking the generic ballot, which dates to 1942. Prior to this year, the highest such gap was five points, measured in June 2002 and July 1994. Elections in both of these years resulted in significant Republican gains in House seats.

Forget conventional wisdom: Republicans have a real shot at taking control of the Senate, as well as the House, in the U.S. midterm elections.

“This is going to be a massive election like 1974, except it will happen to the Democrats this time,” says Bill McInturff, a leading Republican pollster, alluding to the Democratic landslide more than three-and-a-half decades ago. “The Senate is in play.”

The economy is killing Democrats even in states doing comparatively well. The economic stimulus and bailout of the auto companies -- successes in the eyes of most detached analysts -- are unpopular.

Most unpopular was the Wall Street rescue, whatever disaster it may have averted.

Most Democratic candidates voted for these measures, a reason the party may lose 10 seats and control of the Senate.