Hurricane Pat: Michaels offers alternate doomsday

You think this past month was rough on Florida? According to Pat Michaels, the Virginia state climatologist, you ain't seen nothing yet.

"The insured value of hurricane-prone property is equal to the gross domestic product of the United States," says Michaels. "One of these years, there's going to be a $100 billion hurricane."

His Chicken Little talk stops, however, when it comes to global warming.

"The earth– traditionally, except for the Ice Age– has been warmer than it is now," he says, "and the plants that we depend on for food evolved on a planet that was several degrees warmer than it is today."

Michaels has been a hot ticket on the lecture circuit recently, stirring up controversy with his books The Satanic Gases– and the just-released Meltdown– both of which dare to proclaim that maybe the end of the world is not imminent.

In a prevailing– well, climate– of panic, Michaels is one of the few urging calm. And he predicts huge technological advancements later this century.

"We will have the technology to set the mean surface temperature of the planet at the temperature we want," he promises. "Now, what temperature do you want?"

It's an issue that the environmental activists have taken to heart. The recent eco-disaster movie The Day After Tomorrow pushed the topic to the forefront of pop culture– for opening weekend, at least.

"I did between 50 or 60 radio or television spots out of that movie," sighs Michaels, who holds a lucrative research position at UVA and serves as one of the area's definitive experts on climate science.

He notes that federally funded researchers tend to create doomsday scenarios– a trend that guarantees more research dollars. Michaels was effectively given free rein to disagree a few years ago when funding of his position changed from the feds to the state.

"The American Association of State Climatologists tends to be very, very critical of a lot of Washington bandwagons," says Michaels, a former president of the group. "It's a fun position to be in," he laughs.

Michaels has been published in the Washington Post, and he recently won the American Library Association's competition for the best-written government document.

"I can communicate very well verbally and with a pen– which may be one of the reasons why some people might not like me," he says, displaying his wry humor.

The moral of this story is obvious: If you even think about making claims about the severity of the global warming phenomenon, you had best watch your back. The eye of Hurricane Pat might be turning your way.

Age: 54

Why here? Outrageously, the University of Virginia offered me a position as an assistant professor straight out of graduate school.