It's Math, Stupid!

10.30.12

Nate Silver is a Nerd - And He Does Math!

I'm with Scott Galupo on the bruhaha over the New York Times' Nate Silver:

I’m not a trained numbers guy. But I’m a hungry consumer of data-driven analysis about both politics and baseball. Occasionally it crosses the line of self-satisfaction, as if to lament that the world is full of innumerate mouth-breathers. But far more often, the “quants” are humble about their claims and even overemphatic about the complex interplay of variables and “unknown unknowns,” as a former secretary of defense famously put it. I’ll take Silver’s transparent model over Scarborough’s hunch-level insider bluster any day of the week.

There's been a ton of mocking over his model's indication that Obama has a high odds of winning next week's election. After all, how can a reasonably close race be reflected in such a way?

I'm a Romney supporter, but if an Obama win would mean an opportunity to silence the fools, charlatans and sophists who profit considerably from paranoia and stupidity, then so be it. Alas, I don't think a direct message from the Archangel Michael himself would do that trick.