Weekend Estimates: Insurgent Matches Divergent’s Debut

March 22nd, 2015

A mix of positive and negative factors (poor reviews vs. fan loyalty, competition vs. Spring break and so on) are neatly canceling one another out this weekend to give Insurgent an opening weekend almost perfectly in line with the $54.6 million debut enjoyed by Divergent this time last year. Lionsgate is officially projecting a $54 million weekend. The numbers we’re seeing suggest the film will end up a shade lower than that—perhaps $53 million would be a safer bet—but either way, it’s an impressive start, and the fifth-best weekend of 2015 so far.

The movie that lays claim to the third-best weekend of 2015, Cinderella, will be down just under 50% in its second weekend, with Disney projecting a $34.492 million weekend. A fall under 50% is generally considered good these days, but one might have expected slightly better from such a family-friendly film when kids are off school. Perhaps Insurgent pulled some people away.

The weekend’s other wide openers both posted fairly modest numbers. The Gunman will debut with around $5 million from 2,816 theaters for an average below $2,000 per theater—not a good sign for an extended run. Do You Believe?, meanwhile, will gross about $4 million in a much more modest 1,320 venues. That’s well behind the $9.2 million picked up by God’s Not Dead this weekend last year, with the previous film posting those numbers from 780 theaters.

In limited release, It Follows is set to earn about $350,000 from 32 locations, making for a second weekend with a theater average over $10,000. Danny Collins will bring in $73,157 or so from five venues and has the best theater average among films that have announced numbers so far.