March 2012

After record March warmth in many areas (except for the West Coast, with some areas receiving record snowfall either in daily values and/or for the whole month of March), we’ll be looking at another warm month. All of the warm signals were in place at the start of last month, but this month the signals are a bit more mixed as the weather pattern tries to change it up some. Still looking at a warmer than normal month overall for most of the U.S.

A little over a month ago, my friend Ian Livingston (@islivingston) started a new project that focuses on the past, present and future of tornadoes in the United States. He has brought me on board as the tornado threat forecaster for the site (www.ustornadoes.com), where I will be posting 1-7 day tornado forecasts every Monday and Thursday. I will also be posting special updates to the forecast if needed.

This was an ugly forecast… pretty much the exact opposite of what actually happened. There was virtually no blocking this year (I was relying on blocking for the cold pattern), and a fairly persistent and strong trough over Alaska prevented any sort of real, long-lasting cold from entering the U.S.

Here’s my only/final forecast for the snow that will accumulate today into tomorrow:

Boundary layer temperatures are once again the main concern with this disturbance once you get east of the mountains. There is not a lot of model agreement regarding the QPF and surface temperatures with this system as it moves across the region tomorrow, which along with the QPF uncertainty makes this a low confidence forecast. The early start time (being this afternoon) is to account for the ongoing snow showers along and west of the mountains.