On the day he took over the Edmonton Oilers, Peter Chiarelli knew Connor McDavid would be part of his new team by the fall. The young center would be added to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and prospect Leon Draisaitl, the trio possibly becoming a formidable 1-2-3 combination down the line. The trick, of course, was to build up the middle at the other positions without compromising the quality and depth at pivot.

Chiarelli added goalie Cam Talbot, and defenders Andrej Sekera, Adam Larsson, Matt Benning, Kris Russell. He also got Oscar Klefbom’s name on a real value contract. All of those things without compromising the center position and its magnificent future.

Turns out, coach Todd McLellan likes to run Leon Draisaitl on 1R with McDavid, making it necessary to find a legit center-wing to slide up and down the depth chart as required. That’s one (of two) major procurement items for the summer. That ‘need’ dominates the forward list this summer.

TARGET FORWARDS, 2017

I am looking for forwards who cost less than $6 million per year and (hopefully) can be used in the face-off circle.

RC Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche. UFA 2023. Makes $6.3 million but he has to go on the list based on rumored availability. He is 50.5 faceoff percentage and scores 56 points per 82 games. Over 250 shots, too. Interesting option, would cost the moon.

LC Matt Duchene, Colorado Avalanche. UFA 2019. His salary is $6 million but I can’t leave him off the list. If Peter Chiarelli can find a way to grab Duchene, I will walk all of Jasper Avenue naked, singing ‘TipToe Through the Tulips’ while playing a ukulele. And who doesn’t want to see that? 62 percent faceoff percentage. Scores 60 points per 82 games, in the same range as Nuge and Eberle.

RC Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning. RFA 2017. This is a really interesting option for Edmonton, however unlikely he’ll be available. Made $3,333,333 during his last contract, 56 points per 82 games and 52 percent in the dot. A very good player.

RC Bryan Little, Winnipeg Jets. UFA 2018. He will make $4.7 million next season and then hit free agency. FO percentage is 55.6 and he averages 53 points-per-game through his career. You may not think he is an option, but he hits free agency during a timely summer.

RC Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers. RFA 2017. Made $2.625 million this past season and is a very interesting player. Averages 46 points per 82gp, and had a 52 percent faceoff percentage last season. Like this player.

RC Elias Lindholm, Carolina Hurricanes. RFA 2018. Makes $2.7 million this coming season, averages 40 points per 82 games and has a 55.6 faceoff percentage. A longshot acquisition, there are reason to really value this player (and perhaps overpay). Does Edmonton have the assets? He is just 22.

LC Vladimir Sobotka, St. Louis Blues. Signed to a nifty $3.5 million for the next two seasons, he looked quite capable during the postseason run. Unsure of the pricetag (or is St. Louis would consider trading him) but worth discussing.

R Brendan Gallagher, Montreal Canadiens. Now in the injury prone stage of his career, that may make him more available. Habs would trade him for the Nuge? He is averaging 47 points per 82 games and makes $3.75 million through 2021.

LC Mikael Granlund, Minnesota Wild. RFA 2017. He made $3 million this year and is due a raise for sure (81gp, 26-43-69 while playing wing). FO% 49.5 for his career and averages 51 points per 82 games. Good player.

L Evander Kane, Buffalo Sabres. UFA 2018. Will make $5.25 million and then head to free agency, averages 50 points per 82 games and is a bull. A lot of noise around him but as a scorer and PF there’s a lot to like. Had 25 EV goals in 2016-17.

RC Travis Zajac, New Jersey Devils. UFA 2021. His salary is $5.75 million and his faceoff prowess (54.6 percent) is quality. Added attraction? Righthanded. He has averaged 46 points per 82 games during his NHL career, shy of both Eberle (62) and Nuge (55).

R Kyle Palmieri, New Jersey Devils. Undersized goal-scorer has posted 30 and 26 in his two seasons with the Devils. Would be an interesting addition, makes $4.65 million through 2021.

R Tobias Rieder, Arizona Coyotes. He’s making $2.25 million this coming season, RFA at that time. Can PK, check like a demon and if the Oilers acquire him he can’t score shorties against them anymore. A fine young player.

RC Ryan Strome, NY Islanders. RFA 2018. Makes $2.5 million and is poor (42.7) in the FO circle. Scores 40 points per 82games. His name was brought up by Darren Dreger recently, suspect he could be available this summer.

LC Boone Jenner, Columbus Blue Jackets. RFA 2018. Makes $2.9 million on his current deal and is 50 percent in the circle. Averages 39 points per 82 games and every Oilers fan in Christendom will tell you they had him ranked ahead of David Musil on draft day.

RC Brandon Sutter, Vancouver Canucks. Stop it! I wanted to be thorough is all! UFA 2021, he has a NTC that might be an issue. Making $4.375 and FO%54.3. Righthanded. Per 82 games, he scores 31 points.

TARGET FORWARDS, 2017 (UFA)

I haven’t added names like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, because it seems unlikely the Oilers will be able to afford shopping in that end of the pool.

R T.J. Oshie. He scored 33 goals, he is going to get a massive payday and it won’t be from Edmonton. Oilers will make a call though.

LC Martin Hanzal. He averages 43 points per 82 games and has a FO percentage of 56.4. He is 30 and did not have a strong playoff, but he is certainly a Chiraelli player. Plays a heavy game, has skill and knows Gretzky. Huzzah!

R Justin Williams. Old as the hills and twice as dusty, someone forgot to tell him it isn’t 1975 anymore. Three Stanley’s in his career, Game 7 witch, perhaps he can be convinced.

LC Nick Bonino. He averages 38/82 points and 48 percent on the dot. Bonino is 29 and my suspicion is he will re-sign with the Penguins. Still, an interesting option.

R Ales Hemsky. Like a brilliant Euro sports car your last four girlfriends left you over, Ales Hemsky puts a spell on you. Per 82 games, he is posting 42 points since leaving Edmonton. Had two healthy seasons before getting into only 15 last season, but it wasn’t his fault. They had to order a part all the way from Coventry, England. The car still starts, but not when it rains or is sunny.

LC Brian Boyle. He averages 22 points per 82 games and had a FO percentage of 52.2. He made $2 million a year ago and is 32.

R Jaromir Jagr. Just 45, he made $5.515 last year because of course he did. Ridiculous age, ridiculous longevity, I saw him last winter taking about 10 percent of the warmup and spending the rest of pre-game staring at about 60 sticks while some poor schmoo had to stand there waiting for Aretha Franklin to decide. Pure diva. Proceeded to score a goal 50 seconds into the game. I would love to see him as an Edmonton Oiler.

R Drew Stafford. Had a poor season (58gp, 8-13-21) and makes a lot of money ($4.35 million last year) and at 31 this may be the exact wrong time to sign him. He is a Chiarelli type player, so there’s a chance he ends up here.

R Jarome Iginla. I don’t think he’s coming here, but wanted to include him to make a point. Chiarelli signed and traded for a few veterans who appeared to be too old/done, and found a way to make them productive. It is possible Iginla ends his career here.

L Patrick Sharp. Depending on health and price, he could be a reasonable option. Made $5.9 million a year ago but wasn’t healthy and had subpar boxcars (48gp, 8-10-18). That’s his worst season in 14 NHL campaigns. Still, PC would value his leadership and skill. He is 35.

POSSIBLE 2017-18 ROSTER

This model has the Oilers signing free agents Martin Hanzal and Jan Rutta, while dealing Jordan Eberle for Jason Demers. That’s a good deal for sure, Bob mentioned it on his show (in fairness, the first person to mention it to me was speeds). The Oilers are eventually going to find a volume shooter for McDavid and that’s probably next step, 2018 summer.

DRAFT ELIGIBLE EV POINTS-PER-60

I’ve been looking for this all winter and spring, finally found (thanks, Todd Cordell!). It won’t change much in the final rankings, but Cole Guttman will be added to my list.

1984

It was awesome. Just five years after entering the league, the Edmonton Oilers brought Stanley to the west. It was surreal and beautiful and it took forever to put it into context. Man, what a feeling. I remember so many things about that game, the most prominent recall being Kurri to Gretzky for the game’s first goal. I have described it in detail here many times, from the mind’s eye and memory. It is here, still gives me chills. Ridiculous to witness those years plus the McDavid future. Blessed.

96 Responses to "BUILDING UP THE MIDDLE"

I think Chia is counting his blessings that he passed on Demers. I highly doubt he is interested. Quite possibly the worst free agent signing of last offseason and there were some bad ones. Wowy’s were what you would expect from a buyout candidate

Besides the players from the Rocky Mountain day dream I like Bryan Little, Mikael Granlund (Scrappy Doo on skates) and I think the general consensus is Martin Hanzal signs (for what, 4×4?). Boyle and Stafford are interesting, hell no to Bonino!

– Great post LT! Just one thing about your proposal yesterday: if you need to throw in a 1st to have Pou chosen, I doubt that gets done. We’d much rather have Pou, and lose Griff and have a 1st rounder

– Pou is a tradeable asset (albeit not much, but he’s a NHL hockey player)

I am a bit surprised that you have dismissed Joe Thornton as a possibility. He has career earnings of just over 100 million but does not have a cup. He might want to sign a value contract with a team that has a better shot than San Jose in his final couple of years.

leadfarmer:
I think Chia is counting his blessings that he passed on Demers.I highly doubt he is interested.Quite possibly the worst free agent signing of last offseason and there were some bad ones.Wowy’s were what you would expect from a buyout candidate

My choice would be Pysyk, but I strongly disagree with your take. Truly baffling post.

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– Great post LT!Just one thing about your proposal yesterday: if you need to throw in a 1st to have Pou chosen, I doubt that gets done.We’d much rather have Pou, and lose Griff and have a 1st rounder

– Pou is a tradeable asset (albeit not much, but he’s a NHL hockey player)

Yeah, I mentioned that because the original postersounded like getting rid of Pouliot at all costs was vital. trading the first-round pick to offload BP is not a good idea.

Most of the guys mentioned above as good faceoff men (Duchene, Lindholm, Zajac, Little and Sutter) are not any bigger than RNH. I don’t necessarily buy the argument that success in the faceoff circle is about size and strength. It also has a lot to do with intelligence, technique, and frankly just focusing on it.

That is why RNH’s lack of success in the faceoff circle surprises me. He seems to be a smart, hardworking player. He seems to focus on the little parts of the game, except for faceoffs. A guy with as much skill as RNH should be good on the dot. I watch him and it often seems like he kind of half-asses it on faceoffs.

RC Bryan Little, Winnipeg Jets. UFA 2018. He will make $4.7 million next season and then hit free agency. FO percentage is 55.6 and he averages 53 points-per-game through his career. You may not think he is an option, but he hits free agency during a timely summer.

He’s likely to re-sign in Winnipeg. Loves it here and the fans here would go to war for him. One of the most underrated players in the league. Suspect he’d cost us Nuge, and if signed to a long-term contract I consider that. However, you’ve got to get up real early in the morning to win a trade with Kevin Cheveldayoff, he’d likely wind up with Nuge and Jones out of this.

Lots to do …. Question: we use the pts/82 over a career … I believe in trending. Trending up, Trending down and I think it’s important. Jonathon Chechoo had a good pts/82 and trended his way down, right out of the League

What are Nuge and Ebs pts/82 in the last 2 seasons …

Explain to me how we can get Limdholm and Faulk out of Carolina and I am in … maybe ..

” I will walk all of Jasper Avenue naked, singing ‘TipToe Through the Tulips’ while playing a ukulele. And who doesn’t want to see that? ” – I would love to acquire Duchene for 1 reason only !!!

I’m not sure if Miami put Demers off his game a bit, but certainly he is a known quantity to the Oilers.

My concern is less with his abilities, but more if he is a good partner for Russell. The Albertan is scrappy but with his size a partner with puck skills and the ability to help more with physical play might compliment him better (and Sekera). I’m not sure Russell Demers would be great in the box or facing a well executed cycle.

Less tire fire D zone, and getting to where teams can’t keep possession for longer periods are part of stepping forward I think for this team. I’m not sure who the right player is, but if the top 2 pairs at least can break the cycle fairly quickly, or retrieve dump ins quickly and find a good outlet pass, the ice would be tilting to the other the other way by the end of next season. This ability is one of my favorite things about Larsson. He shuts so many sorties down before they get established with a well timed hit and a quick pass.

Of course the forwards play a big role in providing the outlet, but I think we’ll see a good step forward from the younger guys with more mature play and being the third McLellan season, they’ll continue to be more on script as things go along. I also think the vets will play better when the youth execute the plan more consistently.

I think any GM has to be careful about trading a 1st rounder … History shows that most of the high end talent comes from round 1. High end talent wins Cups. So many Good NHL players picked in the #22 range. The list is endless … The Oilers are in a Marathon, not a sprint. If they start selling high end assets now and all the time going forward, it will Connor, Leon and a bunch of plugs …

1st rounders now have so much value, not only because of their potential, but Also because they represent Cheap Labor. There is a reason all the Multi National Companies have their factories in China and South America. Cheap Labor.

To me the #22 pick this year COULD turn out to be a big part of our Cup Future, if this kid can play when Connors contract kicks in …. could be very valuable ..

Lowetide: My choice would be Pysyk, but I strongly disagree with your take. Truly baffling post.

I am not sure its baffling.

Demers signed for $4.5 x 5, and proceeded to finish last in CF% on FLA among full time D. Looks like his D partner was mostly Yandle, and Demers was zoomed by him: 49.9 with, 48 without, Yandle 51 when apart.

His next most common partner was Matheson, and they were pretty much the same, together or apart.

His third most common D partner was Kindl and they were truly brutal together (41%) and much better apart.

His most 3 common forward “together” teammates (Trocheck, Smith, Jokinen) all looked like they were dragged down by Demers.

Based on that, (and maybe some of it is explained by Q of Competition) he does not look like a great signing. He could be an expensive third paring RHD in a hurry if that continues, or he could bounce back.

He’s no Adam Larrson, if that’s what we are talking about 🙂 You might have to redo your chart to order the right side Larsson, Benning, Demers by Christmas.

I would kick the tires on Lindholm – Nuge for Lindholm and a smaller piece or Eberle plus a smaller piece for Lindholm. I’m not sure what CAR would think of acquiring the $6M cap hits.

I need to respond to one of yesterday’s blogs re: McDavid’s contract and the theory that anything less than the max creates a value contract.

Personally, no player is worth 20% of the cap, not even Wayne in his prime (OK, maybe Wayne but not a developing McDavid). Even era-adjusted via hockey-reference, Crosby’s second season was superior to Connor’s and he got 17% of the cap in an era where it was rising yearly.

I understand that he may “need” to be the highest paid (cap hit) in the game even though it is an RFA contract. I’ll give him that. What it doesn’t/shouldn’t be is a cap hit multiple million dollars over the cap hit of the current highest in the league.

This should come in around $11M/season – $12.5M max if he is looking for 17%.

The goal isn’t to watch McDavid be the best player in the world. The goal is to build a Stanley Cup contender and win Stanley Cups.

Demers signed for $4.5 x 5, and proceeded to finish last in CF% on FLA among full time D. Looks like his D partner was mostly Yandle, and Demers was zoomed by him: 49.9 with, 48 without, Yandle 51 when apart.

His next most common partner was Matheson, and they were pretty much the same, together or apart.

His third most common D partner was Kindl and they were truly brutal together (41%) and much better apart.

His most 3 common forward “together” teammates (Trocheck, Smith, Jokinen) all looked like they were dragged down by Demers.

Based on that, (and maybe some of it is explained by Q of Competition) he does not look like a great signing. He could be an expensive third paring RHD in a hurry if that continues, or he could bounce back.

He’s no Adam Larrson, if that’s what we are talking about You might have to redo your chart to order the right side Larsson, Benning, Demers by Christmas.

I think I’d rather have Pysyk or Petrovic myself.

New team, injuries, weird coaching decisions. Demers issue comes on 125 horrible minutes with Jakub Kindl. Kindl was a drag on all. If you look at Demers three-year run, a more trustworthy photo comes into view.

leadfarmer:
I think Chia is counting his blessings that he passed on Demers.I highly doubt he is interested.Quite possibly the worst free agent signing of last offseason and there were some bad ones.Wowy’s were what you would expect from a buyout candidate

I have no clue about this player. Some still say he is better than Larsson and well your opinion is kinda not that.

Hot Take Alert: The Oilers can effectively use the money spent on Fayne as a 7th D. It’s not pretty, but if the Oilers D corps return next year with the same as this year (minus Sekera, plus Fayne) to start the year, are they really that bad off?

“RC Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche. UFA 2023. Makes $6.3 million but he has to go on the list based on rumored availability. He is 50.5 faceoff percentage and scores 56 points per 82 games. Over 250 shots, too. Interesting option, would cost the moon.”

——

If they are big game hunting, I think MacKinnon would be a significant add. I think he is a better shooter than Duchene, and he’s a big kid already and fast. If a first is in the convo, for a 22 YO RHC with this guy’s talent, for sure. His scoring numbers would be much higher on the Oilers, he’s on pace with Duchene who is in his prime on a team with a D that rivals the Oilers during the troubles.

The team can carry at least 3-4 expensive forwards especially if the D remains such a value.

Demers WOWY’s have been really good. His CF% last season 49% given all that went on that is still good. His cap hit is 4.5M which fits right in.

I mentioned I was concerned as to whether he would be good with Russell, well in a tiny 17 minutes in 2015-2016 they had CF 60%. He also played well with Oduya as well who is a non physical player, so I’m not concerned now.

If they could package Fayne in as LT suggested regarding Pysyk, it would be 2 birds stoned at once.

Still think top target should be Faulk. Fits all of our needs. Has a reasonable contract like Klefbom. Would love it to not be Nuge, but like Hall, it could be the ask. I’m ok with the first and any prospect outside of Puljujarvi to go with Eberle to make it happen. Yes it’s an overpay, but it saves our 3 centre depth, and clears cap space to add up front.

How about
Faulk and Stempniak
for
Eberle, 1st and Jones.

They get a higher end scorer, and have the depth on D to move Faulk. Jones adds to their stable of young D under control. and the first stocks the shelves in their rebuild. We get our 2 RD and PP QB. And Stempniak allows us a one year vet who can play two ways (and LT has mentioned every year as a possible add) and provide depth without breaking the bank ($2.5 mill one year left), RW who would fit nicely on any of our top 3 lines (and will cost a few million less then Eaves).

Oil2Oilers: Watching the clip was a roller-coaster for me, it all came back. Including how never wracked I was after the 2nd Islanders goal.

Especially when Pat Flatley crashed into Andy Moog and Moog laid there for a bit. Mike Zanier was the backup. A quick look at Hockeydb shows that Zanier played 3 NHL games in total and it was during the 84-85 season, meaning he never saw a minute of NHL action while sitting as a backup in a NHL Finals game.

Lowetide: My choice would be Pysyk, but I strongly disagree with your take. Truly baffling post.

Truly Baffling post? If we are using advanced stats as a metric of a player, then he truly has horrendous advanced stats this year. Please look up his WOWYs from this year. Please go to a Panthers blog. If we are using advanced stats when it pleases a narrative then fine. He drops GF% by double digits for multiple good players on his team

leadfarmer: Truly Baffling post?If we are using advanced stats as a metric of a player, then he truly has horrendous advanced stats this year.Please look up his WOWYs from this year.Please go to a Panthers blog.If we are using advanced stats when it pleases a narrative then fine.He drops GF% by double digits for multiple good players on his team

He is 50 percent for the year, and fine away from Kindl. Horrendous is not close to accurate.

Lowetide: He is 50 percent for the year, and fine away from Kindl. Horrendous is not close to accurate.

And then look what happens when you factor in GF%. Below 40%. Yandle is over 10% higher without him than Demers is without him. Corsi drops a bit for Demers while raises a bit for Yandle. This repeats itself throughout his WOWYs. Sure Kindl is not very good but only accounts for 120 minutes. Take a look at how the good players like Barkov, Trochek, Marchessault get a huge stats bump when Demers is gone.

leadfarmer: And then look what happens when you factor in GF%.Below 40%.Yandle is over 10% higher without him than Demers is without him.Corsi drops a bit for Demers while raises a bit for Yandle.This repeats itself throughout his WOWYs.Sure Kindl is not very good but only accounts for 120 minutes.Take a look at how the good players like Barkov, Trochek, Marchessault get a huge stats bump when Demers is gone.

But in what context? Is that bump from lower QoC if not with Demers? A lot of this will hopefully be easier when WoodMoney gains self consciousness. GF% has the problem of small sample size, right? Which is why CF% (shots) would lend a better picture to base a future prediction on. Less ‘noisy’.

leadfarmer: And then look what happens when you factor in GF%.Below 40%.Yandle is over 10% higher without him than Demers is without him.Corsi drops a bit for Demers while raises a bit for Yandle.This repeats itself throughout his WOWYs.Sure Kindl is not very good but only accounts for 120 minutes.Take a look at how the good players like Barkov, Trochek, Marchessault get a huge stats bump when Demers is gone.

So now we’re moving away from Corsi and on to GF%. One of the reasons we use Corsi is due to sample size, and the dips that can sometimes occur in a season. Florida had a very poor run during the 2016-17 season and Demers was part of that. His season overall, and certainly his most recent three-year run, do not indicate “Quite possibly the worst free agent signing of last offseason and there were some bad ones. Wowy’s were what you would expect from a buyout candidate” as you said in your original post in this thread.

Again, I would prefer Pysyk, but Demers is a very reasonable solution.

There are a couple of metrics I use to look at a team’s defence to sort out who’s legit and who rides coattails.

On the Panthers Demers is 4th in ice time, behind Ekblad, Yandle, and Matheson. He’s only slightly ahead of Petrovic.

Demers is also 4th in shots on goal from the Panthers D, trailing Ekblad and Yandle by a wide margin as they’re the designated shooters, but also Matheson by roughly 50 shots, and again just ahead of Petrovic.

Demers was the Panthers 2nd pair defensive defenseman this past season, and looks like he’ll be their 4/5 guy again. Ergo, his contract suggests negative value. It may be similar to trading for Mark Fayne a year after he signed as a UFA.

Scungilli Slushy: But in what context? Is that bump from lower QoC if not with Demers? A lot of this will hopefully be easier when WoodMoney gains self consciousness. GF% has the problem of small sample size, right? Which is why CF% (shots) would lend a better picture to base a future prediction on. Less ‘noisy’.

These are guys that played over 100 minutes. Sceviour is 50/50 but decimal points go towards sceviour. Otherwise only Mckenzie Bjugstad and Thornton are better with him then without him. None of those guys played more than 11 min EV TOI per game and Thornton is out of the league. I’m not saying that he cant recover but dragging that many guys down is hard to do. This is a veteran defenseman were talking about whose coach wanted to play other guys over him.

In any event, It would not appear that Demers would be a good fit, based solely on his contract. Another 4 years at $4.5 for a second pairing guy (best case scenario) does not fit well with the Oilers payroll going forward.

Someone on a one or two year deal would be ideal. That would allow enough time for Benning to perhaps move up, and for Bear/ Mantha/ some other young guy to move into the third pairing.

I’d sure like to know what happened to Demers anyway. He visited EDM about the same time as Lucic, and then fell off the radar. My impression at the time is that he was not interested in EDM and that Chia was pissed at him. I wonder if he would even have EDM on his list of places he would go.

IMO, I don’t see any way that RNH and Hanzal both fit on the Oilers under the cap, it’s an either or proposition, and my money is on the guy who wins almost all his puck battles and is a wily faceoff expert.

I also think there’s a chance Connor signs for a lower number for less years, considering Vegas expansion has been very lucrative and if the league expands again, the cap could increase significantly.

I’d love to see some justification to add Pysyk or Demers that isn’t CF% based, some metrics diversification is solely needed around here.

1) a shout-out to Bag Of Pucks for a terrific comment in the Chiarelli thread. Just met with my financial analyst last week and looked at some of those same concepts. He asked me if I want to change the mix among high-, medium-, or low-risk investments, and perhaps the Hall-for-Larsson exchange can be parsed in that manner. But BOP’s bigger point is that you look at the performance of the entire portfolio rather than getting fixated on one aspect of it, & PC’s overall performance passes the test with me, even as I got savaged on Twitter yesterday for not wanting him fired (or something).

2) can be as bad as One, if I can mix my numerics with my alpha-bits. 🙂 Love the song, loved Three Dog Night generally and their cover of that tune in particular, but to my ear the definitive version (as often is the case) was performed by the actual song writer, the great Harry Nilsson. Take 2:22 & listen to this. The way the story goes 😉 is that Nilsson was unsuccessfully trying to call a loved One & kept getting the (old style) busy signal, which became the underlying musical theme of the song. Amazing how a gifted musician can turn such an annoying, frustrating sound into such a beautiful song.

russ99:
IMO, I don’t see any way that RNH and Hanzal both fit on the Oilers under the cap, it’s an either or proposition, and my money is on the guy who wins almost all his puck battles and is a wily faceoff expert.

I also think there’s a chance Connor signs for a lower number for less years, considering Vegas expansion has been very lucrative and if the league expands again, the cap could increase significantly.

I’d love to see some justification to add Pysyk or Demers that isn’t CF% based, some metrics diversification is solely needed around here.

I agree corsi shouldn’t be the only metric used
Shots
Expected goals
Scoring chances ( or shot attempts from the slot)
should be viewed as well.

Some of the micro stats like
Zone entries
Zone exits
can be useful as well.

russ99:
IMO, I don’t see any way that RNH and Hanzal both fit on the Oilers under the cap, it’s an either or proposition, and my money is on the guy who wins almost all his puck battles and is a wily faceoff expert.

I also think there’s a chance Connor signs for a lower number for less years, considering Vegas expansion has been very lucrative and if the league expands again, the cap could increase significantly.

I’d love to see some justification to add Pysyk or Demers that isn’t CF% based, some metrics diversification is solely needed around here.

Thanks Bruce, glad you like the post. I’ve been reading a ton of Warren Buffet and Daniel Graham stuff of late to inform my own portfolio, so that was definitely influencing my thinking on Chia.

Switching gears, so glad we got a long weekend arriving now. Looking forward to the break. Used to play in a band that did a fair amount of Chris Cornell material and yesterday’s loss was a tough one. A major major talent.

Interesting to hear his widow’s thoughts that Ativan may have played a part in this. Same drug that nearly led Matthew Good to suicide. Folks, if anyone takes them, please be careful with the anti-depressants. Dangerous dangerous stuff in the wrong dosages or circumstances.

That looks (basically) like rolling three pairings to me. Ekblad was hurt of course, he would be top pair (but not by much, 5.26 to 4.89 for Demers) if he had played 82 games. Hard to frame Demers as third pair based on Woodmoney imo.

As a comparison, Edmonton:

1. Larsson 480.85
2. Russell 418.53
3. Benning 285.43

That looks (to me) as though injury impacted Benning, but that the top pairing and second pairing were well clear of the third

It has seemed to me over the last couple of months a good portion of the readership of this blog has been asking for more and more speed in our lineup, and this is something I agree with.

Williams, Hanzal, and Jagr aren’t the type of additions I had in mind. I’m almost positive if we signed Hanzal and he had a slow start to the season, this blog would be riddled with comments demonizing his foot speed and Chia for signing him.

These are guys that played over 100 minutes.Sceviour is 50/50 but decimal points go towards sceviour.Otherwise only Mckenzie Bjugstad and Thornton are better with him then without him.None of those guys played more than 11 min EV TOI per game and Thornton is out of the league.I’m not saying that he cant recover but dragging that many guys down is hard to do.This is a veteran defenseman were talking about whose coach wanted to play other guys over him.

Yes I see your point. I don’t think he is a strong offensive option, but has shown a history of moving the puck. He may have lost his mojo, but at 28 defense are usually hitting peak play if they haven’t been injured.

GMB3:
How do Mark Pysyks fancies look? Would he be a significant upgrade over Benning?

He is building toward being a very good defenseman imo. Might be getting him a year too early, but might not be able to get him at all this time next year. No idea if he will end up being more than Benning, but both (along with Larsson) would be a really nice RHD set.

Lowetide: He is building toward being a very good defenseman imo. Might be getting him a year too early, but might not be able to get him at all this time next year. No idea if he will end up being more than Benning, but both (along with Larsson) would be a really nice RHD set.

That’s similar to what my analysis of him has been as well, but I don’t get to watch many Panthers games. Not enough to know how well he defends.

I like the idea of possibly taking a risk on a player like Pysyk, if it’s relatively inexpensive. And I remember playing against him as a youth, love cheering for those guys, especially for my own team.

On another note, in a year or two Oscar Klefboms contract will be considered one of the best value deals in the NHL. It will be a nice respite for us, until we need to trade Drai to resign him. 😏

Scungilli Slushy: Yes I see your point. I don’t think he is a strong offensive option, but has shown a history of moving the puck. He may have lost his mojo, but at 28 defense are usually hitting peak play if they haven’t been injured.

Good point! With the number of injuries the Panthers had and head coaching turmoil, you would expect Demers numbers to improve next season.

Too bad his visit last summer was such a mystery. He came to Edmonton so it seems he was at least interested in signing. He didn’t sign right away so I don’t think he was juggling offers. The Oilers hosted him so they were at some point interested in making an offer. The simplest explanation is once Lucic agreed, the wheels were set in motion and the Larson trade was decided. Don’t know if that is the right explanation though

Thanks Bruce, glad you like the post. I’ve been reading a ton of Warren Buffet and Daniel Graham stuff of late to inform my own portfolio, so that was definitely influencing my thinking on Chia.

I’ve been on my own journey in this area as well after reading advice from Kinger and NYCOil. I recommend reading up on CAPM and the efficient frontier for other perspectives on investing.

Some critics of value investing point out that book value for technology companies are difficult to measure. For instance, how much is Googles search engine worth? Assets – liabilities are much easier to assess with tangibles

Anyway, I point out those two topics because they provide tools on how to take advantage of risk (price volatility)

–hudson–: Good point!With the number of injuries the Panthers had and head coaching turmoil, you would expect Demers numbers to improve next season.

Too bad his visit last summer was such a mystery.He came to Edmonton so it seems he was at least interested in signing.He didn’t sign right away so I don’t think he was juggling offers.The Oilers hosted him so they were at some point interested in making an offer.The simplest explanation is once Lucic agreed, the wheels were set in motion and the Larson trade was decided.Don’t know if that is the right explanation though

Sounds reasonable, but they were still short on the right side. I think they were still assessing things and wanted to see this season before committing too much. Russell and Gryba were one year deals. Possibly seeing if Larsson could carry the first pair, if not they had to have cap to find someone who could and play Larsson at 2D.

–hudson–: I’ve been on my own journey in this area as well after reading advice from Kinger and NYCOil.I recommend reading up on CAPM and the efficient frontier for other perspectives on investing.

Some critics of value investing point out that book value for technology companies are difficult to measure.For instance, how much is Googles search engine worth?Assets – liabilities are much easier to assess with tangibles

Anyway, I point out those two topics because they provide tools on how to take advantage of risk (price volatility)

As for Demers, my understanding was that he signed for the same or similar cap $ as Edmonton may have offered but that Florida’s lack of state tax made it a better financial deal for him in Panther-land.

I seem to recall that the metrics going into last year’s UFA season painted a positive picture of Demers and the issue was what would he sign for.

I am curious to know is the thought that he would be available from Florida post-expansion draft or that he would be exposed and the Oilers might acquire him through Vegas?

As for trading for Demers AND re-upping Russell, this doesn’t seem to follow from Chia’s presser.

Remember he specifically noted how good Nurse and Larsson paired together. While we’ve grown accustomed to Klefbom and Larsson, I think they may (in light of Sekera’s injury) be looking to accelerate Nurse’s move into a top-4 roll.

Chachi:
Elliotte Friedman‏Verified account @FriedgeHNIC11m11 minutes ago
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During last night’s game, Ryan Johansen suffered a left thigh injury and needed surgery. He is out for the rest of the playoffs

John Chambers:
Jim Nill is open to trading the #3 ov pick for immediate help. They have Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky’s contracts expiring and no current backfill at RW. They also need to dump an expensive goalie.

The Oilers hope to be a cup contender. Trading a 55 point winger for a goaltender who is going to play 15 games badly is a poor trade.

Rookies tend not to help one win cups. #3OV will not be happy with 2 more years in junior and a year in the AHL. And when they are ready, they will be not be value because they will be carrying around a $3 million something cap hit.

A #22OV won’t complain about the two years of junior and the grooming in the AHL, and the NHL team won’t be burdened by a $3 million dollar cap hit when they break him in.

Stop thinking like a losing franchise.

Jordan Eberle is a good hockey player. The Oilers should want to get value in return. Even in his worst year, he scored the same as Matt Duchene, whom everyone seems to love.

Magic beans and a bad contract and a bad goaltender for Jordan Eberle is a horrible trade.

Doug McLachlan:
As for Demers, my understanding was that he signed for the same or similar cap $ as Edmonton may have offered but that Florida’s lack of state tax made it a better financial deal for him in Panther-land.

I seem to recall that the metrics going into last year’s UFA season painted a positive picture of Demers and the issue was what would he sign for.

I am curious to know is the thought that he would be available from Florida post-expansion draft or that he would be exposed and the Oilers might acquire him through Vegas?

As for trading for Demers AND re-upping Russell, this doesn’t seem to follow from Chia’s presser.

Remember he specifically noted how good Nurse and Larsson paired together.While we’ve grown accustomed to Klefbom and Larsson, I think they may (in light of Sekera’s injury) be looking to accelerate Nurse’s move into a top-4 roll.

Not sure I am comfortable with Demers playing that high, not withstanding the time vs-Elites he played.Nor am I sure about Nurse that high up the batting order.

D-men playing above where they should be has been the historical problem with Oiler defensemen during the decade of darkness – would be very disappointed were we to fall back into that.

Don’t see the Oiles going after Demers. Think the contract is too much for what he brings. If they target a Panther I think it will be Pysyk or Petrovic. From my limited Florida viewings I think Pysyk is a younger, cheaper version of Demers. Maybe with a bit more upside.
Petrovic intrigues me. Bigger, more physical. Don’t know about his puck skills or skating compared to Pysyk but if they’re close I would go with the bigger, shut down guy. I think we need another Larsson type as opposed to a Demers type.
And I’m not knocking Demers. I think he is a solid NHL dman, but I think he has reached his ceiling and is probably somewhere in Russell territory in terms of ability.

John Chambers:
Jim Nill is open to trading the #3 ov pick for immediate help. They have Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky’s contracts expiring and no current backfill at RW. They also need to dump an expensive goalie.

If they can, you protect Reinhart (and Letestu) by offering up a pick or a prospect to have them select Pouliot. Not sure it’s worth a 1st but don’t think that’s what the price would be. Probably would cost us a 2nd so it will have to come from 2018.

Pouliot is a 30 year-old expensive NHL winger but he still has good foot speed and is only under contract for 2 more years. Don’t know if that is how Chia wants to dump that contract but it seems plausible. Understand that he has 29 other GMs similarly trying to dump their bad contracts but he’s hardly the most ugly contract that is being unloaded (I’m looking at you 32 year-old Dustin Brown $5.875M until 2022).

John Chambers:
Jim Nill is open to trading the #3 ov pick for immediate help. They have Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky’s contracts expiring and no current backfill at RW. They also need to dump an expensive goalie.

Getting a top prospect like Owen Tippett for Eberle would be a steal. Adding in a lesser pick that has a ~40% chance of becoming an NHL regular and taking on the last year of a bad contract are terms that facilitate the net loss for Dallas.

You’ll never get $6M of value out of Eberle and you prohibit yourself from adding real value to the roster by keeping an underperforming player at that price tag.

As for paying Puljujarvi or Tippett $3M – that suggests the player has earned their bonus, so they would be a steal at that price. Not to mention the fact that you likely have that player under team control until 2026.

It’s not just the next year that our competition window is open – it may be open a decade. Adding an inexpensive young RW who can skate and cash alongside our C’s would set the forward corps up for nearly a decade.

Getting a top prospect like Owen Tippett for Eberle would be a steal. Adding in a lesser pick that has a ~40% chance of becoming an NHL regular and taking on the last year of a bad contract are terms that facilitate the net loss for Dallas.

You’ll never get $6M of value out of Eberle and you prohibit yourself from adding real value to the roster by keeping an underperforming player at that price tag.

As for paying Puljujarvi or Tippett $3M – that suggests the player has earned their bonus, so they would be a steal at that price. Not to mention the fact that you likely have that player under team control until 2026.

It’s not just the next year that our competition window is open – it may be open a decade. Adding an inexpensive young RW who can skate and cash alongside our C’s would set the forward corps up for nearly a decade.

You’re absolutely right. The window is going to be driven by drafting. It’s why Pittsburgh is competitive again after they stopped trading all their picks.