The majority of Conservative MPs believe David Cameron’s same-sex marriage
plan is doomed to failure and is a source of deep concern for their
constituents.

An all-party poll of MPs found only 56 per cent believed the proposal to legalise same-sex marriage would succeed, with 41 per cent of Conservatives believing it. Almost as many Tory MPs (37 per cent) believed the proposal will fail and 22 per cent said they were unsure, the survey carried out by ComRes found.

It means that three out of five Tory MPs have doubts that the plan will go ahead. By contrast, more than two thirds of Labour MPs and almost all Liberal ­Democrat members polled were confident that it would go ahead.

The poll also found that 60 per cent of MPs did not think that the policy was of “significant importance” to their constituents. Among Tory MPs the proportion rose to 69 per cent.

Ministers have repeatedly insisted that there is no question of “watering down” the proposal to allow same-sex couples to be married in civil ceremonies before the next election.

The official consultation paper, launched last month, makes clear that the question is “how” the change could be made, not “whether”.

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Critics claim to have detected a softening of the stance taken by some members of the Government and it has already been made clear that Tory MPs will be given a free vote.

The issue has divided Tory MPs and last week David Cameron appeared ­anxious to shore up relations with religious leaders, insisting that he did not want to “fall out” over the issue. David Burrowes, a Conservative who has been a prominent opponent of the plans, said that the strength of opposition in some quarters appeared to have taken ministers by surprise. “I think this fairly reflects the fact that there is a significant number of Members of Parliament, particularly Conservative Members of Parliament, who are concerned about whether we should legislate on marriage,” he said.

“That is partly a reflection that there is deep concern from the constituencies.”

More than six out of 10 MPs believed that civil partnerships already provide the same legal rights as would be afforded by marriage.

There was a marked party political divide over this question with only 50 per cent of Labour MPs sharing that view, along with 43 per cent of Liberal Democrats.

The research was commissioned by the Coalition for Marriage, an umbrella group of individuals and organisations that support traditional marriage and oppose plans to redefine it. Colin Hart, the group’s campaign director, said: “The results of these polls show that Conservative MPs increasingly think that attempts by the Government to redefine marriage without any electoral mandate are looking uncertain and could well fail.

“Set against the context of growing opposition to the proposals in the country, they suggest that David Cameron is heading for a painful and deeply damaging defeat.”