The end of cost sharing reductions has insurers trying to raise premiums even higher than planned. Those high premiums and other changes to the Affordable Care Act may drive consumers away from the exchanges.

The loss of cost sharing reductions (CSR) and the presidential executive order altering the Affordable Care Act will combine to significantly shake up the insurance market for 2018, one analyst says.

The effect is likely to include raising rates so high that the number of healthcare consumers who do not purchase coverage will skyrocket.

Health plans are scrambling to raise their rates even higher than already planned, responding to President Donald Trump’s announcement that insurers will no longer receive the subsidies.

Insurers were forced to submit rates for next year while the fate of CSRs was still uncertain—one set of rates is for if the subsidies continued and the second is for a higher rate to be used if they did not.

Some insurers are asking for a chance to revise the rates already submitted, says Julius W. Hobson Jr., an attorney and healthcare analyst with the Polsinelli law firm in Washington, D.C.

The CSR termination comes right after President Trump issued a new executive order he says is designed to increase competition and choice. Critics say it would seriously weaken the ACA, and some say that’s intentional.

President Trump says the order will give millions of Americans more access to affordable coverage and make it easier for people to obtain large-group coverage. Others worry that it could lure healthy young Americans away from the ACA exchanges, leaving those who remain to pay higher premiums.

“The combination of the executive order and the CSR termination wreaks havoc on the health insurance market for all of 2018,” Hobson says. “This also comes just before the open enrollment and with cutting back money for the patient navigators who help people sign up, and with reduced access to the website. That all means there are going to be fewer people who sign up.”

Higher premiums and deductibles already were driving some consumers away from purchasing individual healthcare plans, Hobson notes, and more will follow when the CSR loss forces insurers to raise rates even higher.

If the Trump administration stops enforcing the individual mandate, as it has said it might, that would make even more consumers forgo coverage, he says.

Premiums and deductibles will continue to rise as insurers struggle to remain profitable with a smaller pool of older, sicker patients driving high utilization costs. More and more consumers will leave the exchanges if they can, he says.

“People are going to be looking at premium increases they just can’t afford,” Hobson says. “The individual market will take a big hit, but the impact on the group market is harder to predict. We don’t know yet whether the increases in the individual market will bleed over into the group market.”

The recent changes are intended to weaken the ACA, Hobson says.

“The administration has said the ACA is imploding, but also that they’re going to do everything they can to wreck it. It’s not imploding on its own, it’s being shoved down the trash chute,” Hobson says.

“Losing the CSR payments is critical and, at this point, it’s unlikely that even if Congress acted they could do anything in time to affect 2018. There’s no way of looking at this other than it having a negative outcome,” he says.