A Project of The Center for Climate and Security

Are only poor nations at risk?

No. A combination of exposure to climate risks, and governance deficiencies, determines whether not a nation is at risk. This includes poor, middle-income and wealthy nations. Extremely poor and unstable nations are especially at risk due to the fact that significant existing pressures will be made worse – especially stresses on food and water security. However, middle-income and wealthy countries are also susceptible to the security risks of a changing climate. For example, the nations of the Middle East and North Africa, though mostly middle-income countries, are facing declining winter precipitation as a result of climate change, which has already contributed to instability. Many of these countries are also highly dependent on wheat imports from the global food market, which is in turn very vulnerable to climate shocks. As the provision of basic services becomes less reliable, the social contract between citizen and government can rapidly erode. This can lead to instability, as well as a greater incidence of authoritarian responses. Sea level rise, and an increase in the severity and intensity of extreme weather events, can also threaten wealthy nations that have vulnerable energy, military and agriculture infrastructures, both inland and along the coasts. Cascading disasters have the potential to place such enormous strains on wealthy nations, that economies and critical infrastructure can be severely disrupted.