Simon’s bottom line: the pooled poll shows a very strong likelihood of a Labor victory (much stronger than the implied probability from the betting markets). His mean estimate of the ALP 2pp voteshare is 54%, with a 95% confidence interval running from 52-56%.

OK, now here’s a challenge for the betting agencies: why don’t one of you run a betting market on the two-party preferred vote? That would give us a direct head-to-head way of comparing polls and markets.