The Washington Capitals had a tough decision to make in Tom Wilson. The promising young forward could have started the year with the Plymouth Whalers in the OHL, where he’d likely score over a point per game. Instead, George McPhee decided the 19-year-old was ready for the big show. Having played more than ten games in the NHL, Wilson is now consuming the first year of his entry-level contract, but he’s got precious little to show for it.

Playing under seven minutes a night on the Caps’ fourth line, it’s not a big surprise that Wilson has yet to score his first NHL point. Instead his role has been relegated to fisticuffs: Wilson leads the team in fighting majors with 4. For a big, physical prospect touted by some as a future power forward, the early season comes a disappointment.

That’s remarkable, but beyond the boxcar stats Wilson’s play has been solid.

This bar graph illustrates the percentage of even-strength shots that were in the Capitals’ favor so far this year. 50% would mean each team is attempting half the shots; Wilson has been near or above that mark in 9 of 14 games. He’s had negative puck possession in just five. Measuring by that standard, Wilson has done quite well on the ice– particularly considering the typical expectations for a grinder: to wear down the opponent by forechecking without necessarily shooting.

“He is not getting the required repetitions I would want a young player to obtain for his development even if he’s getting the experience of playing in the NHL,” says Corey Pronman, prospect writer for ESPN. “In order for a player to stick in the NHL as an under-20 forward drafted out of the CHL, in most cases I have to be sure they’ll play top-9 minutes at the least.”

Wilson is at least five shifts per game under than that threshold. That may suggest a future reassignment.

Ice time is the purview of coach Adam Oates, who surely gets the benefit of the doubt. The point of hockey isn’t to spend ice time developing young players; it’s to win. “I don’t question the ice time he’s getting in Washington,” Pronman tells me. “As an organization you have to balance development and winning, but the scale will almost always be heavily titled towards the latter.”

But without a line promotion, it’s becomes more unlikely for Tom Wilson will remain in the NHL. Reassigning him to the OHL would not be unprecedented. RMNB’s own prospect expert Fedor Fedin concurs, and he observes a pattern of teams sending their power forward prospects back to the farm for seasoning:

Philly returned Scott Laughton to Oshawa. Nashville’s Colton Sissons was eligible to play in the AHL, so they assigned him to Milwaukee. Mark Stone, a late-round gem in 2010, has played in just four NHL games with Ottawa since. Boone Jenner spent two years with Oshawa after draft before cracking the Columbus opening night roster this season.

Big prospects are not a market inefficiency. They’re often overvalued, and much is expected of them upon making their big-league debuts. Some front offices and fans may expect each physical young player to be the next Milan Lucic, who made the big club in Boston the year after he was drafted and began producing immediately.

Photo: Greg Fiume

That may be unwise, but comparisons between Wilson and Lucic have been common from the beginning. The Bruins forward was mentioned in pretty much every RMNB piece about Wilson last summer [1, 2, 3, 4, 5].

“But for every Lucic,” Fedor warns me, “there are three Kyle Cliffords, who was considered a good prospect with glowing stats in the juniors before making the jump to the NHL and getting stuck in the Kings’ bottom-six.”

A recalibration of expectations seems in order.

It’s true that Wilson is free of the baggage a lot of other developing prospects get saddled with. “‘They need to fill out” or ‘get stronger’ or ‘bulk up’– that part is already done for Wilson,” says Fedor Pronman. “He’s already a hard-working, physical player.”

He certainly is, and that precociousness makes the want of goals that much more pronounced.

“Wilson won’t be a primary offensive guy who the offense flows through,” Pronman says. “I still think he projects as a decent second-line power winger, but not in the immediate future.”

Does that make Wilson a disappointment? It’s all a matter of perspective. “Relative to other top rookies he’s been below-average,” says Pronman, “but this is one of the stronger rookie classes of the past few years.”

Neither Pronman nor Fedin tell me their estimation of Wilson has changed as a result of these first 14 games. Improvement seems imminent, but how it happens is far less certain.

Photo: Chris Gordon

The Capitals could assign Wilson back to Plymouth any time. Wilson would not have to clear waivers, though his contract year would be consumed either way. While George McPhee and Adam Oates have nothing but good things to say about him, his on-ice usage and the glut of bottom-line players on the Caps roster seem to make him expendable.

“I would prefer to see him in the AHL,” Pronman tells me, “but seeing as that’s not a realistic choice per the ridiculous CHL-NHL agreement, I’d prefer to see him playing 20 minutes a night in the OHL and playing a prime role at the World Juniors.”

If Wilson were to stay in Washington, however, perhaps a bigger role would do him well.

“I’d like to see what Wilson could do on a second or third line with the likes of Martin Erat or Mikhail Grabovski,” Fedor tells me. Another place where Fedor thinks Wilson might flourish is the power play, where Wilson could be a dominating presence in the crease. As the league inevitably finds ways to flummox Washington’s soaring power play, Adam Oates might do well to utilize Wilson as the low man in the 1-3-1.

People who know better than I do seem to think the big club isn’t the place for Tom Wilson right now. His time on ice isn’t typical of a player who sticks around– at least not right away. That’s a shame, as Wilson has done perfectly well at what he has been asked to do. If a return to the Whalers is likely, let’s hope Wilson gets one real crack at NHL scoring before it happens.

Joel Rechlicz is a heavyweight fighter. He has held his own in fights with Donald Brashear, Matt Clackson, and Jay Rosehill. Every bout Recker’s had follows the same script: he either knocks you out or it’s a marathon that will make you wish you hadn’t dropped the gloves in the first place.

What did I say yesterday? Do not smite the hockey gods lest you shall pay. In game one of the Stanley Cup Finals, Jaromir Jagr hit the post in second overtime and then collided with teammate and part-time bouncer, Milan Lucic. Shades of this, amirite?

The Washington Capitals had only a 38% win percentage on the road this season, so getting the W Thursday night is crucial; they just can’t depend on victory away from Verizon Center. But Monday’s home loss to the Bruins was an ugly affair, and the once well composed team fell to shambles. To win Game Four, the Caps are gonna have to dig deep.

I have compiled a series of modest steps the Capitals should take to make it happen. And then we threw in the secret weapon. (Okay, we’ll tell you: more posters.)

Extracurriculars Gotta Go

The Boston Bruin know their game. Sure, they play physical between the whistles, but it’s the interim where they truly shine. Whether it’s Milan LucicGame of Death-ing Brooks Laich before a faceoff, Milan Lucic ragdolling Nick Backstrom after the first period buzzer, or Milan Lucic biting Jeff Schultz’s brittany spaniel at the botanical gardens on Wednesday, its clear that they’ve got the edge when it comes non-hockey dickishness. The Capitals would be wise not to engage the Bs in their creeping.

They’ll win instead by being what Alan May called “thick and proud”–a tough and united team that finishes their checks and knows how to get gritty — but only during the course of the normal hockey game. But when Julien’s guys want to play the pest after every play, the Caps should be ascetic. Silent, focused, tough as nails. Just walk it off.

Roll the Roster Over

Finally found an excuse to post Erskine's dog

The Caps will be without star center and cross-checking phenom Nick Backstrom in Game Four, but that’s no reason to fret. NB19 played exactly none of the Caps’ three regular-season wins over the Bruins, so we know the guys can do it without him. But while Hunter is filling Nicky’s slot, maybe it’s time to shake the whole roster up.

In Backstrom’s place? You already know the answer. #FreeKnuble. Mike Knuble‘s experience, leadership, and cool head can only help a Caps team that may be frazzled after getting beaten up so ferociously last time. But putting him on the fourth line to grind it out does no one any good. Kanoobs is best deployed as a net-crashing compliment to a playmaker like Alex Ovechkin or Alex Semin.

Further down the lineup, Jeff Halpern may serve as another injection of experience in relief for either Keith Aucoin or Mathieu Perreault, who cannot match the Bruins in size and don’t have the elite faceoff chops of the former Caps captain. Plus: box check.

Defense First

Paille all alone with Holtby

The Capitals weak-sauce possession game has had me queasy since December, but it doesn’t matter anymore. Results are the only thing that mean anything now, and the Caps proved that a tight defensive game can win. It’s the kind of hockey Dale Hunter said he wanted to play since the day he arrived, and now he’s getting his chance.

But Monday was ugly. The Caps surrendered four goals– many of them due to poor defensive decisions. Justin Bourne at Backhand Shelf took the Caps defense (and Mathieu Perreault in particular) to task for blowing assignments, looking clueless, and generally making it easy for Boston to get at Holtby’s net.

To win on Thursday, the Caps must recommit to defense. They’ve gotta stick to JJ’s plan and execute without the slightest deviation. If they can keep the Bruins cadre of 20-goal scorers off the boards for another game, they can steal this series.

Pursuant to that goal, blog maestro Ian Oland has cooked up some crucial posters.

Same deal as always. The links below will download PDFs, which will fit snug on a 8.5″ x 11″ page. Take a reasonable amount to Chinatown, hand some out to strangers, and then camp out in front of the glass during warm-ups. Let the boys know who they’re fighting for.

We almost feel like we’re watching some kind of bizarre social experiment in this series, as we observe Bruins forward Milan Lucic‘s temper simmer, simmer, and boil over more and more frequently as his line continues to be rather ineffective versus the Caps. These bursts of temper saw Lucic collecting 8 PIMs by the end of the night, though– puzzlingly- the refs seemed to think that it was always necessary to tack a Washington penalty on top, perhaps so Lucic wouldn’t get so lonely in the box. The refs have seen this behavior — he’s acting out for attention– and should know better.

Lucic got into a scuffle with Matt Hendricks late in the third period, and then Karl Alzner, when Alzner tried to intervene. There were words exchanged, and Alzner didn’t seem too impressed by them, to say the least.

Game Three: The Washington Capitals treated the Boston Bruins to a quiet night of conversation and sport. And then all these damn rowdy Caps fans showed up and spoiled what could have been a pleasant night. It was ugly, it was loose, it was the opposite of those first two games, and it ended tragically.

With Brooks Laich screening up front, Alex Semin converted a first period penalty play while Chara was in the box. Rich Peverly tied it up, but who cares because Alex Ovechkin scored 13 seconds later. Daniel Paille was left all alone in front of Holtby, tying the game at two. Brian Rolston exploited some bad Caps D early in the third and gave the Bruins their first lead of the night. Nick Backstom set Brooks Laich loose for a breakaway to beat Tim Thomas and tie it with six minutes left.

The first period ended with a frustrated Boston team roughing up your precious Capitals. Milan Lucic un-helmed Nick Backstrom and roughed up his noggin while Zdeno Chara manhandled a little boy who wandered out on the ice wearing a Mike Green jersey. For some reason, Backstrom served a roughing penalty, which is utter jive. The Looch and Backy stuff is a chronic problem, and it needs to end before this series turns into Pens-Flyers.

This series has been tighter than we Caps fans are used to, but the magic of 4-on-4 hockey temporarily enchanted it at the beginning of the second period. Those two goals in 13 seconds were special: Ovechkin chasing a bouncing puck into Thomas’ domain, and Peverly sailing a puck at the tip of Holtby’s glove. For the second time in two bullets, this game looked a bit like the battle of Pennsylvania for a moment.

How does Milan Lucic get Caps to go to the penalty box with him? He’ll slewfoot Laich and then Laich gets an unsportsmanlike. That’s… really impressive actually. Dale Hunter has to appreciate that, although I’m sure he hates it as much as I do. We’re thankful that the refs are calling obstruction penalties by the book now, but Zdeno Chara should not allowed to powerbomb and then spoon Brooks Laich without consequence.

Two-point night for Captain Alex Ovechkin, who found new ways to get away from Chara’s coverage. Dale Hunter paired Ovi with Jason Chimera, whose speed and aerodynamic head shape kept spinning around the massive Boston D squad. Ovi is still carrying the puck too much– which means he doesn’t trust his line to create the plays for him. Gotta fix that.

The fourth liners were basically erased from the second period, as Dale Hunter did his shortened bench routine. That meant very little ice for Ward, Beagle, and Aucoin.

The Capitals defense that was so mindblowingly excellent last game inevitably declined. Fell off a cliff really. The turnovers that had all but gone extinct made a coelacanthic comeback, and the D-corps couldn’t get loose pucks away from Braden’s net before Rolston could swat one in. Tighten up, boys.

After Braden Holtby shut down the Bruins power play, Milan Lucic started the s-word again. This time he suckerpunched Matt Hendricks. Again, he drew Hendy into the penalty.

Gorgeous breakaway goal on Brooks Laich, whose got a bit of grit, a bit of skill, and enough charisma to lead a pack of corgis on the iditarod.

In both Capitals’ losses this series, the game-winning goal has came off of a defender’s stick. In Game One it was Dennis Wideman. Tonight it was Roman Hamrlik. Awful way to lose.

Braden Holtby, eh? If you were expecting another nigh-perfect effort, this attenuation of your expectations is probably healthy. One softie got past him, but that happens to everybody sometimes. 25 saves on 29 shots.

Joe B suit of the night

Series record: Bruins 2, Capitals 1

Well, at least it wasn’t a goalie duel.

The Capitals earned a lead and then gave it up. The blame rests squarely on the Caps D, who couldn’t be perfect forever.

The Bruins are playing their brand of hockey with elaborate flourishes after each hit. The Caps are too eager to play along, especially on their home turf. But how is Dale Hunter gonna ask the Capitals not to play the way he did for so long?

Thursday night will be huge. The Capitals had a chance to steal this series, and they blew it. If they can tie the series on Thursday night, there’s a good chance they can pull this out– although they’re gonna have to do it on the road now.

As of Thursday, the Washington Capitals are officially embarking on a quest for sixteen wins and a big, shiny trophy. There will be many obstacles along their way, the first of which is the scariest team in the entire world, the Boston Bruins. You may have heard stories, legends, even epic ballads about the infamy of the Bruins, especially their scary power forward, Milan Lucic.

Doubtless you have heard from many Boston fans and members of the media since Saturday that Milan Lucic is a pretty big deal, and that the Caps will need to watch out for him. We’re here to second that assessment, and to offer a profile that we hope can come close to touching the sheer awesome power that is the Bruins forward. Don’t eat us, Mr. Lucic.

In fact, Lucic has not lost a fight this season, despite going toe to toe with heavyweights such as Paul Gaustad, Patrick Kaleta, and Matt Carkner. Luckily, the Caps can rely on tough guys such as Alzner and Cody Eakin to contain him.

The Caps will also have to be protective of young goalie Braden Holtby, given Milan Lucic’s reputation for impressively targeting the most immobile players on the ice. As we know, Holtby is a fragile blossom incapable of defending himself, and terribly susceptible to harm from aggressive forwards.

If you need even more reason to fear him, Milan Lucic once broke the glass at the TD Garden with a body check. Can you imagine that? Broke the glass! Why, only such comparable monsters as Jamie Benn, or Caps playerscasually shooting pucks at practice have ever done that! Truly chilling.

We wish the Capitals luck in dealing with this uncontrolled hockey monster. We can only hope they can find the courage to leave the locker room to face him.