These Aren't Last Year's Knicks

Although the Roster Looks Similar, These Knicks Will Play Differently

By

Chris Herring

Sept. 29, 2013 9:02 p.m. ET

For the Knicks, last season—from November to April, at least—went about as well as anyone could have hoped. Their 54 wins clinched the Atlantic Division and earned the East's No. 2 seed. Because of that, the Knicks will likely face loftier expectations this season, which begins with media day on Monday and the team's first training-camp practice on Tuesday.

ENLARGE

Carmelo Anthony, left, won't play power forward as much for the Knicks this season. And Jason Kidd, now the Nets' coach, won't be around to take shots from behind the three-point arc.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

There's just one problem: The Knicks will find it difficult to replicate the speedy lineups, historic three-point shooting and league-best ball security that made them contenders last year. Those things, which helped them overcome an injury-riddled roster and subpar defense throughout the regular season, have quietly been undone by a host of key off-season personnel changes.

Perhaps the biggest change to watch this coming year: the glut of power forwards the team has on its 2013-14 roster, and how that logjam impacts the amount of minutes Carmelo Anthony—who dominated from that position—can play there.

Aside from Anthony, the team has at least four key players who figure to be in the rotation at power forward. That would suggest that Anthony—one of the main cogs of the team's spacing-induced, small-ball lineup—will get less time there.

"I could see [playing at power forward] still being incorporated into the game plan. But for the most part, I don't really see it [being like last year]," said Anthony, who led the league in scoring while spending 80% of his playing time at power forward, according to 82games.com.

Anthony, interviewed Friday at his pitch for Degree Men products, pointed out that for all the success the team enjoyed with him at power forward, he played there last season mostly because of injuries to other big men on the roster.

The three-point shooting that helped power the Knicks to the league's third-best offense a season ago also figures to be far less prevalent.

The Knicks, who broke NBA single-season records for most threes (attempted and made) and the highest proportion of points garnered from threes, replaced many of their sharpshooters, changing a sliver of the team's identity in the process.

It's too soon to know what level of success the Knicks might have from long range. But a simple look at the offensive tendencies of their new acquisitions suggests the shots from deep won't be as free-flowing.

Consider that Steve Novak and Jason Kidd last season were almost exclusively taking three-pointers—81% of Novak's shots were triples, 79.5% for Kidd. That's a stark contrast from the men who will replace them: Andrea Bargnani and Beno Udrih (28.9% and 21.4% of their shots were from behind the arc, respectively.)

Of course, no one is saying ex-Knicks like Novak and Kidd are irreplaceable. In fact, many would argue that Bargnani and Udrih have younger, more well-rounded games than their predecessors. But there's also something to be said for the value of specialization, which has become more important in today's NBA.

The Knicks lost eight players from last year who accounted for more than 42% of the team's three-point attempts. With that in mind, Dave Berri, a Southern Utah University economics professor who uses analytics to make win projections, has predicted that this year's team would launch 2,079 threes—down 12.3% from last season.

Another question worth asking: Can the Knicks take care of the ball as well as they did last season? Yes, the Knicks will often use a two point-guard lineup like last year, when they had a league-low 11.7% turnover rate. But more big men in the rotation could offset that. And swapping out Novak—who owns the lowest single-season turnover rate in modern-league history, per Basketball Reference (1.8% in 2009-2010)—for Bargnani (10.5% rate last season) could cause an uptick, too.

While it might be easy to look at the Knicks' success last season and assume they'll match or exceed it, a number of the elements that helped get them there are no longer in place.

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