David Cameron and the Art of Bargaining from the Low-Ground

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The current migrant and Eurozone crises have eclipsed a critical existential issue facing European construction today. Prime Minister David Cameron had promised as part of his re-election manifesto to hold a UK referendum on European inclusion by 2017. His pledge has been met with opposition of various intensity from the Scottish National Party, the Liberal Democrats and Labour. The move was seen as an unabashed attempt to woo Eurosceptic voters rallying around Nigel Farage’s UKIP as well as a means of shoring up his bargaining power against other European member states.

All this commotion around the future of the UK within the Union begs the question of what the fallout of an actual withdrawal would be. Voters will go to the booths weighing the potential and quite probable short-term economic upheaval and diplomatic isolation against the strengthening of British sovereignty over national institutions, law, and borders.

What is certain is that Britain would see its own influence greatly reduced. Politically side-lined and diplomatically isolated, the UK would loose access to the vast array of communication networks facilitated by inclusion and face embittered trading partners in France and Germany. Instead of being a powerful player within one of the most influential polities in human history, the UK would be relegated to a stark reality of international obsolescence—a turning point akin to the post-war sentiment of its colonial Empire slowly disintegrating.

In short, the UK has much more to fear than the EU from a Brexit. With the Tories tearing themselves up over the issue, Mr. Cameron facing potential cabinet resignations and Nicola Sturgeon threatening a new referendum on Scottish Independence were the UK to leave, the PM must be doubting his decision to throw himself into the foray. Why then, have Mr. Cameron’s demands been given so much attention by European leaders? Perhaps they haven’t studied their game theory carefully. Or perhaps they do not wish to see a third headache added to the long list of crises. What is clear is that Mr. Cameron has mastered the art of bargaining from a weak position: a vote to leave on referendum day could even give more bargaining power to Mr. Cameron and ironically see the UK staying in the EU on improved terms.