J.J. Watt

Everyone applauds a trade-down on draft day. More picks! Better odds! An aggressive mindset and improved roster! Right? Well, that depends. The Dolphins have the 14th pick overall. If there’s a lesson for teams trading down between 10th and 19th picks, it’s this: Be careful. And don’t trade down very far, if you do at all. Let’s start by examining the five draft classes between 2004 and 2013 (leaving out 2014 since it's too close to analyze for this). Let's break it down a little, too, to understand there's a short-term and longer-term dividends. In the five years from 2009 to 2013, there were 15 Pro Bowl players picked from 10th to 19th; 14...

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