How Trump’s Tariffs Will Affect US Stocks

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President Trump seized global headlines
again recently after threatening a massive trade war with nations that the
United States has a trade deficit with. The incendiary tweet that ignited a
flurry of headlines sent the U.S. dollar plunging, and has many analysts
concerned about the future of U.S. stocks.

Investors holding their breath can relax;
the president almost certainly won’t start a massive, international trade war. That
doesn’t mean his tariff plan won’t affect US stocks, however; the genie is out
of the bottle, and the U.S. market will continue to feel the reverberations of
President Trump’s tariff terror for months, and possibly years, to come.

Sound
and fury, nothing more

After President Trump tweeted
that 'trade wars are good,' markets around the world responded logically; that
is, they panicked, and stocks everywhere sunk. The U.S. dollar in particular
suffered from the president’s social media musings, and investors everywhere
began eyeing U.S. steel stocks with particular fears that they would be the
first to go. The market has thus far averted a total economic collapse,
however, and despite the intense rhetoric being bandied around the globe
presently, it’s unlikely President Trump’s desired trade war will ever surface.

Does that mean that U.S. stocks are in the
clear? Far from it – American businesses will by mired down by this political
flub for years, as economic uncertainty now clouds the market from sea to
shining sea. U.S. stocks posted small gains in the days following their initial
plunge after the president’s errant tweet, but a broader specter of confusion
lurks over investors’ shoulders at every turn, and will bog down economic
performance for the next few months at least.

If President Trump’s 25% tariff on steel
were to ever materialize, US stocks can expect to suffer for it; red states in
particular stand
to lose from a trade war, as European politicos, savvy as they are,
understand that targeting domestic markets populated by Republicans will be a
good way to force the president’s hand on this issue. The broader U.S. economy
would face many hurdles it currently doesn’t have to worry about, and the
soaring stock prices so many have enjoyed recently would almost certainly come
crashing down with a fiery intensity.

While President Trump’s proposed tariff
plan was so greatly unexpected and fundamentally illogical that it drew sharp
rebukes from his fellow leaders of the Republican party, that doesn’t mean
it’s dead, however; while a trade war will almost certainly not materialize,
investors should expect the president to keep flouting the plan, as he often
does with most of his proposed initiatives. Consider his other political
negotiations, for instance; be it an immigration deal on DACA or an attempt to
repeal the Affordable Care Act, President Trump has routinely refused to give
up on political issues after the tide has turned against him, and may continue
to beat the dead horse of a trade war to inspire headlines for days or weeks to
come.

Keep
an eye on congress

Investors hoping to determine the future
health of U.S. stocks after President Trump’s tweet should keep their eye,
oddly enough, on the halls of congress as opposed to the White House. If
Republican legislators like House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnel push President Trump to drop the prospect of a trade war as hard
as they’re expected to, investors can breathe easy. Should the GOP fail to take
the bait being offered by major American trading partners, however, then market
analysts can expect the president to continue pushing his folly with a degree
of success, and start sweating.

Such developments are unlikely; with
consumer confidence at an all-time high and U.S. stocks soaring and services
like Vanguard doing brisk
business, a trade war would be incredibly detrimental to U.S. stocks, and would
likely spell the end to the current administration. Investors should instead
concern themselves with the uncertainty that’s currently clouding markets
thanks to President Trump’s incessant tweeting, and should consider shunning
volatile steel and aluminum stocks which may suffer from future headlines.

With world leaders pushing back harshly on
President Trump’s tariff claims, it would typically be safe to say he won’t
chase them. This president, however, has shown that he’s anything but
predictable, and shouldn’t be expected to let this issue go only because his
advisers are pushing for him to move on. Keep your close eye on headlines in the
immediate future, and have an ear open for future presidential tweets if you
want to be immediately in the loop.

With millions of Americans dependent on the
steel industry for their own gainful employment, it would be unspeakably
disastrous to ignite a steel-led trade war. The innate folly of war, be it a
trade one or not, has never stopped them from happening before. However; until
this administration has safely departed from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, investors
can expect more turbulent headlines spearheaded by the president’s emotions
rather than cool-headed economic policy to dominate stock values.

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