A new survey of more than 800 U.S .consumers found that more than half of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next three months say they will buy Apple's new iPhone 5.

In the poll conducted by Piper Jaffray, 53.3 percent of consumers said they expect to buy an iPhone 5 in the near future. That's about consistent with 54.9 percent who chose the iPhone 5 in October, and still a bit higher than 47.7 percent who said they'd choose Apple in September.

"We believe this is a positive that demonstrates the majority of U.S. consumers want an iPhone 5 even following the launch craze, and despite the Maps issues that have been widely noted," analyst Gene Munster said.

The latest survey found that while more than half of U.S. customers planning to buy a smartphone will choose Apple's iPhone 5, 35.3 percent of respondents said they will choose a device that runs Google's Android platform.

As for the remaining smartphone players, 6.5 percent of those polled in the latest December survey said they are planning to buy a Windows Phone in the near future, while 4.9 percent are eyeing a new BlackBerry.

Piper Jaffray also conducted an analysis of what users are talking about on the social networking site Twitter. The investment research firm conducted a search for tweets that contain the keyword iPhone in addition to related words like "bought," "shipped" or "purchased."

Based on its searches, Piper Jaffray believes that purchase trends for the iPhone 5 are ahead of those for the iPhone 4S. The company's data found that about 2.5 months after launch, the demand index for the iPhone 5 is up between 30 and 40 percent over the iPhone 4S, based on Twitter posts.

Originally Posted by AppleInsiderA new survey of more than 800 U.S .consumers found that more than half of those planning to buy a smartphone in the next three months say they will buy Apple's new iPhone 5.

That falls right in line with iPhone user share numbers on AT&T and Verizon.

The table would be more interesting if the demographics were added. i.e. What cities, age of consumers, etc.

That really wouldn't be useful.

What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.

Quote:

Originally Posted by macxpress

800 customers isn't really much compared to the millions of customers out there.

Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.

The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil

But where is the line drawn? You'd consider a study of 10 people valid?

Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"Gatorguy 5/31/13

No matter how many iPhones are really sold, Google can just pretend their "activation" numbers are higher.

I'll state the obvious: Something doesn't add up.

At the end of June, they said 1M activations per day, with 400M devices activated. Now, it's Dec, so take July, Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov, 5 months total, 30 days per month, which should mean they're at 550M. That's being 'conservative' with their own numbers, since there are more than 30 days in Jul, Aug, and Oct, and the rate of activations has increased according to them. They've recently stated 500M total at 1.3M per day. Are they just ignoring the chance to tout 50M+ more in total?

There must be a new category* created, because simply stating smartphone is far too broad a definition.

Considering that an iPhone 3 can still beat many of the new phones using Android, that are considered smart even though they should be what we used to call "feature phones". The features are now just based on Android, instead of the hodge-podge phone OSes of yesteryear.

* I also have suggested this long ago in regards to tablets as well. I just received an email ad for a "super tablet" for only Euro 79.95 ($105.-). There are many of these landfill objects being pushed out here in Europe for even less. Tablet in name only AFAIC.

Knowing what you are talking about would help you understand why you are so wrong. By "Realistic" - AI Forum Member

Originally Posted by agramonte
we get one of these ever year - iPhone was also going to take over Verizon.

I love how three phones from one company having 50% of sales "isn't" taking over.

anyway, they should all go to BestBuy seeing how they selling iPhone 5 for 150 dollars... Never seen an iPhone discounted so early.

I'm sorry, your point is what, exactly? It's Best Buy running a sale because they're bleeding numbers. The Galaxy S3 is also being run, but you can't say we've never seen an Android phone discounted so early because the S3 is already at the end of its lifespan.

I said it long ago:
There must be a new category* created, because simply stating smartphone is far too broad a definition.
Considering that an iPhone 3 can still beat many of the new phones using Android, that are considered smart even though they should be what we used to call "feature phones". The features are now just based on Android, instead of the hodge-podge phone OSes of yesteryear.
* I also have suggested this long ago in regards to tablets as well. I just received an email ad for a "super tablet" for only Euro 79.95 ($105.-). There are many of these landfill objects being pushed out here in Europe for even less. Tablet in name only AFAIC.

This means nothing. I remember last year we had similar stats for the iPhone 4s. At some point between this survey and the store the people are not buying iPhones.

EDIT: TBH I think this survey really shows how much influence the store employees have as to what you buy. 50+% people say they will buy an iphone, 50+% do not buy the iphone. I think that influence comes from the employees at the store.

I bought an iPhone 5 and had to return it...purchased with a dead pixel...shouldn't QA have caught that??? Anyways, got a 4s for $50 from Best Buy...much happier now...battery seems to last longer.

A dead pixel showed up on mine after a few weeks. And then before I could take it back, I dropped the phone (no case that day) and chipped 2 corners. 3 days later I walked into the Apple store and walked out 15 minutes later with a brand new iPhone. Love my iPhone 5, battery is great too.

That really wouldn't be useful.
What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.
Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.
The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.
Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

Ah, a kindred soul (stats guy here).

Spot on comments, too. I'd love to know how they select their samples. On Black Friday he stood in a store and counted the number of items purchased for a few hours. One store, at least from the way the article read. These analysts...

That really wouldn't be useful.
What WOULD be useful is if they explained how the sample was selected and gave us some indication of whether it's representative of phone buyers.
Wrong. There's nothing wrong with the sample size. That large of a sample would give an error margin of about 3.5-4%. As long as the observation is greater than the error margin and if the sample is representative, they can make a claim.
The problem is not the sample size, but rather the question of whether it is representative of the phone buying population as a whole. That question is much more problematic.
Sure. Any sample size is valid if the sample is random and representative. A small sample size does not make the results invalid, it merely increases the error margin. (it also depends on confidence level, but we'll leave that out)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Of course, for a sample size of 10 and assuming a standard 95% confidence interval, the error would be +/- 31%, so it wouldn't be a very useful result in most cases, but it isn't automatically invalid.

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.

Wait a minute... They didn't say HOW MANY people out of the 800 were planning to buy a phone. They just said that out of 800 people, some undisclosed number of people were planning to buy a phone, And just over half of THOSE people were thinking of an iPhone.

Who cares about Google. How much does Apple make in a quarter and year versus Google? I'll take the profits thank you. Android = No Profit. iOS = Most profitable company ever in existence. iPhone alone makes far more in profit than ALL Microsoft products combined!

The doom and gloom on Wall Street is backward justification. Stock goes down (randomly) so you have to try and explain why.

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.

Just like the survey reported on here earlier this year that an insanely high percentage high school students surveyed were getting iPhones. Well....I asked my daughter who is in high school and she's thinks the survey is wrong. Depending on where you are. We are not in the richest area in the country and a lot of people can't afford family plans with AT&T. They are scratching by with Android for T-Mobile. My sister's family the same way. Not everyone has a lot of disposable income, NOR do they have nicely discounted corporate plans.

I suspect if you stand in Grand Central Station and get 800 results, then do the same in downtown Wichita and again near the sponge docks in Tarpon Springs the results might be different even tho the sample size is the same. Where was this survey done anyway and what was the actual question asked?

With that said I personally have little doubt that most who plan on buying a smartphone in the near future here in the US might think they intend to get an iPhone.

Of course. That's why I mentioned two or three times that the sample needs to be representative for the results to be meaningful - no matter how large the sample.

Quote:

Originally Posted by isaidso

Wait a minute... They didn't say HOW MANY people out of the 800 were planning to buy a phone. They just said that out of 800 people, some undisclosed number of people were planning to buy a phone, And just over half of THOSE people were thinking of an iPhone.

Not true. They said that 53.3% were planning to buy a phone in the near future. Of that number, just over half expected to buy iPhones.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers

the real WTF: the other gainer was blackberry.

No, it wasn't. For a sample of this size, the error is +/- 3-4%. The two Blackberry numbers are indistinguishable. (In fact, if you use only the number who said they're planning to buy a phone soon, the error margin is even higher.

"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"Gatorguy 5/31/13