Here's why the midterm elections were both good and bad for Donald Trump's re-election

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato says Tuesday's midterm election results mean new checks on President Donald Trump's power and likely signals the end of the legislative aspect of his presidency. (Nov. 7)
AP

President Trump arrives for a campaign rally at the County War Memorial Coliseum Nov. 5, 2018, in Fort Wayne, Ind. (Photo: AARON P. BERNSTEIN, Getty Images)

WASHINGTON – The midterm elections gave both Democrats and Republicans reasons to hope they have momentum going after the big prize: the 2020 presidential contest.

Democrats point to their energized base – especially among female voters – who helped them recapture the House.

Republicans still hear the cheers of the thousands of voters who turned out for the rallies President Donald Trump held in states where Democratic senators were defeated.

Although Trump declared victory Wednesday, “this is one that probably cuts in either direction,” said Ari Fleischer, former spokesman for President George W. Bush.

Republicans kept their midterm losses below those of the past two Democratic presidents in their first midterms, he said, but Trump still has a low approval rating despite the good economy.

“The way you get that up is you have to persuade people,” Fleischer said. “You have to expand your coalition, not just reinforce your base.”

Veteran political handicapper Stuart Rothenberg said that although Trump has a "fighting chance," it “still looks like a narrow path.”

Here’s are three reasons why the midterm election results were good for Trump’s re-election bid and three reasons why they weren’t.

Trump's base remains strong

The results showed Trump has the loyalty of Republicans, Rothenberg said. “He knows how to get them excited, interested and turn them out,” he said. Trump’s final campaign blitz of large rallies, primarily in states with close Senate races, helped fell at least three Democratic senators.

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Cassie Smedile said that not only does the midterm prove voters’ support for Trump wasn’t a fluke in 2016, but the party has integrated many supporters into its donor and volunteer base – and they’re ready to work on 2020. “They’re a fully ingrained part of our team and infrastructure,” Smedile said.

Wins in Ohio and (maybe) Florida will help

Although Democrats recaptured multiple gubernatorial seats Tuesday, they lost in Ohio, and their candidate initially conceded in a Florida contest that will be decided after a recount. That matters for 2020 because of the outsized role those large – and swing – states play in a presidential contest.

“Republicans can’t win without winning Florida and Ohio, period,” said Allan Lichtman, a political historian who has correctly predicted the outcomes of all presidential elections since 1984.

Having the governor in the state be from the same party is a “really, really big help” for a presidential candidate, because governors have powerful statewide organizations, said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Democrats haven't united behind a candidate

Beto O'Rourke, Texas Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, talks to supporters during a stop in Austin on Wednesday. O'Rourke hopes his viral Facebook videos help lead him to victory over Republican rival U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.(Photo: Rick Jervis)

"The Democratic Party is back,” Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez said at a breakfast roundtable Wednesday sponsored by The Christian Science Monitor. “Our goal was to compete everywhere. Our goal was to reshape the electorate, and that's exactly what we have done."

Because those candidates lost – although Democrats hope for a runoff in Georgia – the party will continue to debate what type of candidate can win nationally and whether to nominate a moderate or liberal.

“They’ll have to have someone who can keep the Democratic coalition together, who can excite suburban white women and rural African-Americans at the same time," Rothenberg said.

Trump lost the House

The model that Lichtman, the political historian, developed to predict the outcome of presidential elections relies on 13 factors, one of which is whether the incumbent party controls more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm. Republicans' loss of the House not only gives Trump a zero in that category but also could lead to losing another key: being untainted by scandal. Democrats' new power to investigate Trump and his administration through the House committees they will control means “it’s much more likely that scandals are going to appear" that could resonate with voters in a way that past controversies haven't, Lichtman said.

Return of the blue wall

Trump got over the top in 2016 with narrow wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, states that were supposed to be Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall.” Tuesday, Democrats won the Senate and gubernatorial contests in all three states.

“His miracle states nobody thought he could win are looking Democratic again,” said Mike Murphy, a GOP consultant and Trump critic.

GOP pollster Dan Judy said Democrats’ victories there were not decisive, showing the states can be competitive again in 2020. The biggest problem for Trump that the midterms exposed, Judy said, is he hasn’t done anything to expand his coalition and remains unpopular among nonwhite voters and college-educated white voters, especially women, in urban and suburban areas.

"Given his razor-thin victory in 2016," Judy said, "failing to expand the pool of voters who support him will make his re-election effort more difficult."

Demographics are destiny

Democrats’ win in the Nevada Senate race and an increasingly likely victory in the undecided Senate contest in Arizona show the West is turning purple, Lichtman said. The Georgia governor’s race and Texas Senate contest indicate those states could become competitive sooner than expected, though maybe not in 2020. The immediate demographic warning sign for Trump is what happened with white Republicans, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.

“The white Republican support is markedly reduced in this election,” Frey said. It’s not just that support for Democrats from white women with college degrees substantially increased, but white, working-class men didn’t deliver the “over-the-top” support for Republicans that carried Trump to victory in the Midwest in 2016.