Saturday, September 24, 2011

OLP, PCPO - Intertwined not going anywhere fast

Two polls - one Angus Reid, one Forum (the latter being massive) - show that the Ontario Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives are stuck together like glue, though AR's is a little lesss sticky.

AR shows the race at 36% for the PCs, 32% for the OLP, and 26% for the NDP. This means AR follows its online pollster cousin Leger in showing the NDP at a decade-old high, and in serious contention for the crown - but still pretty far back.

This would give the PCs 47 seats to the Liberal's 35, for a clear minority. However, the NDP would rush up from behind with 25 seats, making them the kingmakers in Ontario. Would Andrea Horwath support the Hudak minority, or keep McGuinty afloat?

Then, we come to something special - the Forum Research poll. This shows the race tied between the PCs and Liberals at 35% each, with the NDP farther behind at 23%. But this is special because roughly 40,000 respondents were surveyed, making it the largest poll I've ever seen.

If this were the reality on election day, the Liberals would win the barest of majorities with 54 seats, while the PCs sit with 33 and the NDP double on their current caucus to 20 seats.

However, this isn't what Forum's own poll shows. Thanks to the massive size, I guess they were able to effectively poll most of the ridings. They came up with a tie in the seats, 47-47, and the NDP at a low 13 seats.

When they release the full poll, it'd look interesting to see how it all pans out. But Forum Research's own spokespeople say the result is questionable in some regards. Some ridings, it seems, are out of place (like the Tories winning the two Kitchener seats they don't hold, but losing the one they do). So, take the seat projection from Forum in stride.

However, the list of seats that Forum provides as "where the race will be decided" or seats where the opposition is within 5% of the leader) is interesting. Take a look, and see if you agree.

Finally, we come to the "Best Premier" issue, and the two polls show different conclusions. For Forum Research, McGuinty is the choice of just under 40% of Ontarians as the best person to be premier, while Hudak is mired around 30% and Horwath at 20-25%.

Angus Read has McGuinty and Hudak statistically tied, though Hudak leads with 24% to McGuinty's 23%, while Horwath sits back with 17%.

Anyways, both polls have been added to my projection, though Forum's poll gets a much larger weight, thanks to its huge size. Doesn't change much though, since both Libs and PCs were mired at 36% each, and NDP at 22-23%.