Terror army on the rise, says Downer

There are up to 5000 followers of the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah in Indonesia and radical Islamic schools there are producing even more recruits to the cause of violent extremism, the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer, has warned.

His grave assessment of the terrorist threat on Australia's doorstep, outlined in an interview with the Herald, reveals a more extensive JI presence than previously thought.

The revelation comes as JI's reported spiritual leader, Abu Bakar Bashir, soon to be released from jail, has forecast a holy war against the countries that supported the US-led invasion of Iraq.

"I am convinced that sooner or later America, and the countries that assist it, will be destroyed in the name of Allah," the radical Muslim cleric told Channel 7 news in an interview secretly taped in his cell in Jakarta's Salemba jail.

Bashir said the Spanish people were right to link the Madrid train bombings with their ousted government's support for the Americans in Iraq.

To combat regional terrorism, the Howard Government will station more police overseas, boost the resources of its foreign spy service and increase funding for the Office of National Assessments as part of a $400 million security package in the May budget.

Mr Downer has also given notice of a new push to engage moderate Islamic communities in the region and "very sensitively" encourage Indonesia to reform its education system. It was difficult to get a precise understanding of JI's scope but he believed "there are somewhere between three and five thousand Jemaah Islamiah adherents in Indonesia".

"Three to five thousand people can do a lot of damage if they get their hands on TNT. Let us not be complacent about it."

Terrorist experts have previously estimated JI to have several hundred members after the arrests that followed the Bali bombings, with as few as 50 organising operations.

The Australian Government's assessment, however, is that the group has more support - and capability. Moreover, Mr Downer warns the radical schools could be a breeding ground for a new generation of extremists and potential terrorists. "There is still no doubt some people going through the hardest line of the pesantren [Indonesian Islamic schools] who are going to be a problem."

When considered alongside the madrasas, or religious schools, breeding extremists and terrorists in countries such as Pakistan, "it's not a problem that's been solved, by a long shot".

However, Mr Downer said action since the Bali bombings had reduced JI's capacity to launch operations and he noted the big strides taken to improve co-operation among intelligence and police agencies in the region.

He identified another area of concern as the continuing funding by wealthy Wahabist Saudis and Yemenis of mosques in South-East Asia which were being used to promote radical Islamic ideology and in some cases provide training for extremists.

"You have to be very, very careful how you handle this issue of helping Indonesia deal with education and in particular the religious schools," he said. "Certainly we can do more and we can afford to do more and over time we will do more. But we want to edge our way into this area and work very sensitively with the Indonesians."

Australia would encourage tolerant teaching at Islamic universities, and build links with the pesantren and prod Indonesia to crack down on the two or three dozen regarded as dangerous. Ensuring that the moderate Islamic mainstream understood it was not being targeted by the West was another "big area".