‘There will always be market vagaries, but wind remains strong and positive'

The wind industry added a further 54GW of plant to the grid around the world last year, with turbines in more than 90 countries making up a generating base of 486.8GW, according to the Global Wind Energy Council’s (GWEC’s) latest Global Wind Market Report, which also forecasts a market set to expand to 75GW by 2021 as worldwide installed capacity moves past the 800GW mark. Darius Snieckus spoke with GWEC secretary general Steve Sawyer.

New records were set again last year by the global wind industry and almost 30 countries now have at least 1GW of wind capacity producing – along with nine in the 10GW ‘club’. What is your appraisal?

The industry is looking pretty solid. Europe is steady in its growth. As a region there has actually been an increase of a good few megawatts, and that was with offshore wind down, so that is good news for gigawatts to come in the near- and medium-term.

In the Americas, the US is strong, with 18.5GW in construction, Canada is off a bit from the 1.3GW installed in each of the last few years, Mexico is looking like it will have its first 1,000MW year this year.

Brazil will do another 2GW but then there is a very big question mark, and Argentina and Chile are both on the grow.

In Asia Pacific, we don’t expect much from Japan, Korea, Vietnam and a few others, and China will grow a little but not a great deal – curtailment is still at 17%, and they need power system reform [very urgently].

India, where you launched the report this year, is garnering a great deal of attention for its renewable energy ambitions and speed of wind market-growth, having set a record for new installation of 3.6GW last year. From your forecasts, how sustainable are the country’s build-out rates for the next few years?

India [which calculates its installation rates based on an April to April fiscal year] has – somewhat shockingly – done even better than that. When you put it in the context of build-out in the 12 months to April [2017] it was 5.4GW. Plus they have done the 1GW tender, some of which might get built this year, but the government is now saying another 4-5GW will be tendered this year so that bodes well.

Africa continues to be a tale of two continents. Very exciting prospects for example in Kenya – with its first industrial scale project [the 310MW Lake Turkana] heading for switch-on this summer. But South Africa, long the leading market in the region, is embroiled in a political stalemate over support for the renewable energy industries. What is your take on what we can expect to see this year?

Well, in the north of the region, we had a Morocco tender 12 months ago – at $0.029/kWh, let’s not forget – and some of that will get built out this year, and that is very encouraging. I am convinced the situation in South Africa will get resolved – but like everyone else we don’t know when, and will it be unlocked in time to have an effect on the 2017 installation figures? No one can say.

Russia remains the market’s sleeping giant. It has the world’s largest wind resource and the potential – according to the International Renewable Energy Agency – to nearly quadruple the volume of renewables in its national energy mix by 2030, if it ups the contribution of wind and solar power. But its energy strategy sets targets that would see renewables making up only 4.9% of total power capacity by 2030. What is your view of how Russia will evolve as a wind nation?

The potential is there, [but] whether it ever translates into turbines in the ground … I know many of the major OEMs are sniffing around looking for first orders now that [Russian developer] Rosatom has said it will build that pilot farm [a 150MW project to be built next year in the Adygeya region east of the Crimea].

From a Scottish cottage to 500GW worldwide, wind is on a historic updraft

We need to have a better understanding of how real [the country’s plans for capacity build] are. The technical wind resource is huge and it has a lot of hydro [as back-up and for energy storage] but whether Russia will act in its own best long-term self-interest [and develop its wind resource] I wouldn’t like to bet.

We got very excited in 2011 – the sounds coming out of the government were good, they had new legislation, and it all looked like it was going to move but it didn’t. Could be good, could be a damp squib.

And Saudi Arabia? Last month, the Kingdom unveiled plans to launch a second bidding round for 400MW of wind power at a project in Domat al-Jandal, and this, of course, follows it announcing its shortlist for its first large-scale 700MW renewables tender. Are we finally going to see Saudi Arabia get its renewables plans going in a meaningful way to get to its 10GW target [for installed renewables capacity]?

Again, the potential pipeline is there. Will the will in Rihayd materialise as real projects? Yes – but likely as private deals.

They do have great wind and obviously great solar. The first 700MW tender has roughly an equivalent wind and solar [element], so that hopefully is good early indication of the balance between the two resources in the longer term. But you’ll have to have a Saudi partner to get anything done.

"Brazil is a problem – they are promising new auctions this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it"

GWEC’s annual report is regarded as something of a ‘health check’ for the wind power industry. Looking at the figures from 2016, are you broadly sanguine about the outlook for the coming few years?

Yes, broadly. The world’s biggest market, China, has some fundamental structural issues before it gets into shape as either a slow-growth or no-growth environment. Still, 20-25GW a year – we’ll take it. India – huge promise, but time will tell. I’m cautiously optimistic [that] the US, if [President Donald] Trump doesn’t mess with the tax incentives, should be good to keep up its growth. Mexico is coming up; Brazil is a problem – they are promising new auctions this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

There will always be vagaries to individual markets, but overall the trend for [the wind power industry] continues to be a strong and positive one.

This year’s GWEC's Global Wind Report (available via the GWEC website) includes insights into the top 20 sector markets across the world, including new wind power hotspots Vietnam and Argentina, a five-year market forecast to 2021, a special chapter on corporate sourcing of renewables, and an update on global offshore wind.

‘There will always be market vagaries, but wind remains strong and positive'

The wind industry added a further 54GW of plant to the grid around the world last year, with turbines in more than 90 countries making up a generating base of 486.8GW, according to the Global Wind Energy Council’s (GWEC’s) latest Global Wind Market Report, which also forecasts a market set to expand to 75GW by 2021 as worldwide installed capacity moves past the 800GW mark. Darius Snieckus spoke with GWEC secretary general Steve Sawyer.

New records were set again last year by the global wind industry and almost 30 countries now have at least 1GW of wind capacity producing – along with nine in the 10GW ‘club’. What is your appraisal?

The industry is looking pretty solid. Europe is steady in its growth. As a region there has actually been an increase of a good few megawatts, and that was with offshore wind down, so that is good news for gigawatts to come in the near- and medium-term.

In the Americas, the US is strong, with 18.5GW in construction, Canada is off a bit from the 1.3GW installed in each of the last few years, Mexico is looking like it will have its first 1,000MW year this year.

Brazil will do another 2GW but then there is a very big question mark, and Argentina and Chile are both on the grow.

In Asia Pacific, we don’t expect much from Japan, Korea, Vietnam and a few others, and China will grow a little but not a great deal – curtailment is still at 17%, and they need power system reform [very urgently].

India, where you launched the report this year, is garnering a great deal of attention for its renewable energy ambitions and speed of wind market-growth, having set a record for new installation of 3.6GW last year. From your forecasts, how sustainable are the country’s build-out rates for the next few years?

India [which calculates its installation rates based on an April to April fiscal year] has – somewhat shockingly – done even better than that. When you put it in the context of build-out in the 12 months to April [2017] it was 5.4GW. Plus they have done the 1GW tender, some of which might get built this year, but the government is now saying another 4-5GW will be tendered this year so that bodes well.

Africa continues to be a tale of two continents. Very exciting prospects for example in Kenya – with its first industrial scale project [the 310MW Lake Turkana] heading for switch-on this summer. But South Africa, long the leading market in the region, is embroiled in a political stalemate over support for the renewable energy industries. What is your take on what we can expect to see this year?

Well, in the north of the region, we had a Morocco tender 12 months ago – at $0.029/kWh, let’s not forget – and some of that will get built out this year, and that is very encouraging. I am convinced the situation in South Africa will get resolved – but like everyone else we don’t know when, and will it be unlocked in time to have an effect on the 2017 installation figures? No one can say.

Russia remains the market’s sleeping giant. It has the world’s largest wind resource and the potential – according to the International Renewable Energy Agency – to nearly quadruple the volume of renewables in its national energy mix by 2030, if it ups the contribution of wind and solar power. But its energy strategy sets targets that would see renewables making up only 4.9% of total power capacity by 2030. What is your view of how Russia will evolve as a wind nation?

The potential is there, [but] whether it ever translates into turbines in the ground … I know many of the major OEMs are sniffing around looking for first orders now that [Russian developer] Rosatom has said it will build that pilot farm [a 150MW project to be built next year in the Adygeya region east of the Crimea].

From a Scottish cottage to 500GW worldwide, wind is on a historic updraft

We need to have a better understanding of how real [the country’s plans for capacity build] are. The technical wind resource is huge and it has a lot of hydro [as back-up and for energy storage] but whether Russia will act in its own best long-term self-interest [and develop its wind resource] I wouldn’t like to bet.

We got very excited in 2011 – the sounds coming out of the government were good, they had new legislation, and it all looked like it was going to move but it didn’t. Could be good, could be a damp squib.

And Saudi Arabia? Last month, the Kingdom unveiled plans to launch a second bidding round for 400MW of wind power at a project in Domat al-Jandal, and this, of course, follows it announcing its shortlist for its first large-scale 700MW renewables tender. Are we finally going to see Saudi Arabia get its renewables plans going in a meaningful way to get to its 10GW target [for installed renewables capacity]?

Again, the potential pipeline is there. Will the will in Rihayd materialise as real projects? Yes – but likely as private deals.

They do have great wind and obviously great solar. The first 700MW tender has roughly an equivalent wind and solar [element], so that hopefully is good early indication of the balance between the two resources in the longer term. But you’ll have to have a Saudi partner to get anything done.

"Brazil is a problem – they are promising new auctions this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it"

GWEC’s annual report is regarded as something of a ‘health check’ for the wind power industry. Looking at the figures from 2016, are you broadly sanguine about the outlook for the coming few years?

Yes, broadly. The world’s biggest market, China, has some fundamental structural issues before it gets into shape as either a slow-growth or no-growth environment. Still, 20-25GW a year – we’ll take it. India – huge promise, but time will tell. I’m cautiously optimistic [that] the US, if [President Donald] Trump doesn’t mess with the tax incentives, should be good to keep up its growth. Mexico is coming up; Brazil is a problem – they are promising new auctions this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

There will always be vagaries to individual markets, but overall the trend for [the wind power industry] continues to be a strong and positive one.

This year’s GWEC's Global Wind Report (available via the GWEC website) includes insights into the top 20 sector markets across the world, including new wind power hotspots Vietnam and Argentina, a five-year market forecast to 2021, a special chapter on corporate sourcing of renewables, and an update on global offshore wind.