I... This is an interesting point. I'm so used to celebs bring liberal that setting one who isn't is genuinely surprising.

Saying that however, this is a guy who claimed 500 years of slavery was a choice, and, when in the Oval Office called for the release of a notorious gang leader. He's a black man suffering from mental health issues embracing a man who is a notorious racist.

I think it's reasonable to suggest he maybe step out of the limelight for a while.

Last edited by Rudolphin on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

lex-man wrote:I kind of get the impression that a lot of what he's doing is an act. He's being edgy as it keeps him in the media that keeps the dollars rolling in.

It’s a tactic that more often than not has a proven track record of working, but do it too long and what brought you to the dance will also kill you off (Katie Hopkins, Alex Jones).

Not quite sure who Kanye is appealing to though. Trump’s main demographic aren’t going to be interested in his music or whatever other crap he’s flogging, and Kanye and his fan base are just going to leave.

lex-man wrote:I kind of get the impression that a lot of what he's doing is an act. He's being edgy as it keeps him in the media that keeps the dollars rolling in.

It’s a tactic that more often than not has a proven track record of working, but do it too long and what brought you to the dance will also kill you off (Katie Hopkins, Alex Jones).

Not quite sure who Kanye is appealing to though. Trump’s main demographic aren’t going to be interested in his music or whatever other crap he’s flogging, and Kanye and his fan base are just going to leave.

That British guy who does videos for Alex Jones, he's called Paul something or rather I think, loves Kanye. He's done videos about how much he loves him.

Tineash wrote:They're not your friendsThey're not your colleaguesAt the end of the day, you don't down tools and break bread together

That attitude is exactly why the US is in the state it is. Politicians should be able to have fierce debates and and disagree wholeheartedly about issues but at the same time should be civil enough to be able to put that aside and have a civil drink or meal with the opponent.

jiggles wrote:Nobody with a VR headset is going to be using it regularly this time next year, let alone in 4 years time.

Tineash wrote:They're not your friendsThey're not your colleaguesAt the end of the day, you don't down tools and break bread together

That attitude is exactly why the US is in the state it is. Politicians should be able to have fierce debates and and disagree wholeheartedly about issues but at the same time should be civil enough to be able to put that aside and have a civil drink or meal with the opponent.

Until recently, they did, but political polarization has been worsening since the days of LBJ and it's reaching crisis levels now, as it has fully infected the Senate - the collegiate body intended to be a bulwark against this sort of thing.

There is some hope, though, as apparently more millennial voters identify as independent than solidly Democratic or Republican. This should result in a mellowing of the political climate as the century wears on.

Anyway, here's a handy rundown of the probably 2020 primary field, as far as we can make it out at this early juncture.

538 wrote:Basically running right now

Lawyer Michael Avenatti

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock

Former Vice President Joe Biden

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker

Former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro

Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti

New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand

California Sen. Kamala Harris

Former Attorney General Eric Holder

Former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu

Sen. Jeff Merkley of Oregon

Former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley

Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts

Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders

Rep. Eric Swalwell of California

Businessman and pro-impeachment activist Tom Steyer

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren

[These are] potential candidates who have taken at least four of the seven steps toward running. [Visited Iowa, South Carolina & New Hampshire, wrote a book, commissioned polls, got profiled by a magazine, stumped for candidates in key races.] I think of the people in this group as running for president right now, even if some of them end up never launching full-blown campaigns. (For example, at this point, the more interesting story would be if Bernie Sanders didn’t run for president; he is the only person who hit all seven of our indicators.) It’s worth noting the diversity of approaches in this group. Some of them, like Michael Avenatti and Eric Garcetti and Sanders, are making visits to multiple early primary states, which is the equivalent of saying, “I’m really, really thinking about running for president and I really, really want the national media to cover my explorations.”

To be fair to people like Garcetti, if you’re not a nationally known figure, going to the early states is perhaps the most efficient way for an aspiring president to get his or her name in articles like this one. Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, is already well-known among Democratic activists, so she can skip the activities that seem very self-focused — she hasn’t gone to Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina — while making moves that keep her profile up (campaigning for Democrats in key gubernatorial races).

There are 20 people in this bucket — a fairly large group. That said, I don’t expect all 20 to run, and I would be surprised if even half of them ultimately do. People who have taken this many early steps often bow out because they decide that they are unlikely to win. Jeff Merkley, for example, is an economic populist who was the only U.S. senator to endorse Sanders in 2016. In terms of message and policy views, the two have a lot in common. So it’s hard to see a path to victory for Merkley if the much-better-known Vermont senator runs too.

Two governors in this group, Steve Bullock and John Hickenlooper, are presenting themselves as more centrist candidates. If Joe Biden decides to run, he will likely enter that centrist lane too, and I doubt there is room for both him and those other two.

Indeed, Biden and Sanders would enter the contest as two of the best-known candidates. But you could imagine one or both of them deciding that the possibility of winning both the primary and the general election is outweighed by the possibility that they will lose one of those races and taint their strong political brands with another presidential defeat.

Of these 20, I’m most skeptical of the idea of Holder and Landrieu running. The former attorney general could be publicly teasing a presidential campaign not because he really wants to run but because the national coverage will bring more attention to his project to mobilize Democrats against what he considers unfair Republican-engineered gerrymandering in states across the country. Or I could be wrong — Holder might launch a formal campaign over the next year, and we could have a field with three high-profile black candidates (I think Booker and Kamala Harris are almost definitely running).

Landrieu has been downplaying the idea of running, and he’s the kind of person with low national name recognition who should probably be overhyping himself if he really wants to compete in 2020.

Notice there are only three women in this group. To be sure, Harris and Warren, in particular, seem more likely to wind up being the Democratic presidential nominee than men like, say, Eric Swalwell. That said, despite the rise of women candidates in the Democratic Party after President Trump’s election, the majority of Democratic presidential candidates will likely be male, in part because the ranks of senators, governors and House members are disproportionately male.

Taking steps but not being as aggressive

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg

Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota

Washington Gov. Jay Inslee

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe

Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii

This category covers anyone who hit three of our seven signs. I don’t want to overemphasize the distinction between this group and the first one — some people in this group are almost definitely running. Michael Bloomberg and Jay Inslee, for example, are being quite open about considering candidacies, so I just as easily could have included them in the section above.

Amy Klobuchar has a lot of potential appeal: She’s expected to cruise to a third term in a closely divided state; she has gotten fairly strong support in Minnesota’s rural areas, an unusual quality for a Democrat; and she’s a woman at a time when Democratic voters appear to be seeking more gender parity in their elected officials.

I don’t think Brian Schatz has any plans to run, and his visit to Iowa really seemed like an exercise in helping party activists there and not raising his personal profile. But you never know.

Doing fairly little

Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick

Businessman Howard Schultz

Deval Patrick and Howard Schultz are fairly high-profile figures. Neither seems to have closed the door on the possibility of running, but they have been less aggressive than others in laying clear groundwork for a campaign.

Whew. That’s 27 people. And that’s not all. Remember, Rep. John Delaney of Maryland has been an official, declared candidate for over a year. The third-term congressman is not being taken too seriously — many outlets doing polls of the 2020 field aren’t including him. I’m keeping my eye on a businessman named Andrew Yang, who has also officially declared his candidacy. He could run at least a semi-serious campaign for two reasons: He is making a universal basic income, a buzzy idea in left-wing circles, the center of his candidacy, so he is getting some media attention, and, yes, reporters like me are going to cover more out-the-box candidates to avoid missing the next Donald Trump.

Also, and we may come back to this in a later piece, at least three Republicans (Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio and Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska) have emerged as anti-Trump figures in the GOP and visited at least one of the early primary states. I would not rule out the possibility that one of them (probably Kasich) will run against the president in the Republican primary.

But let me finish with this: Who seems likely not to run?

Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin

Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio

Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania

Actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Former first lady Michelle Obama

Media mogul Oprah Winfrey

After Trump was elected in 2016, it seemed like the rules of politics no longer mattered and so we would see a lot of actors, corporate titans, musicians and other political neophytes run in 2020. That seems fairly unlikely, at least as of now. Avenatti, Bloomberg and Tom Steyer, in particular, would be non-traditional candidates with some Trump-like characteristics. But we’re not seeing real, bonafide celebrities making active moves to run for president.

Michelle Obama, for example, has been included in polls and is coming out with a book, so I could have put her in the section with Deval Patrick, but those are pretty weak indicators in her case; I really, really, really don’t think she is running. Winfrey has two post-2016 books and she polls well, but I don’t think she is running either. In an interview last year, The Rock expressed interest in running for president, but far in the future (2024). And he wouldn’t really fit into our analysis here anyway, since the actor is not affiliated with either party.

It also seemed, in the days immediately after the 2016 election, that the Democrats would be desperate to draft anyone who could appeal to white working class men in Ohio and push those candidates into the presidential field. So far, not so much.

Tammy Baldwin, Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey are likely to win re-election this November in key states that Trump flipped to the GOP side in 2016. The fact that Democratic party activists are not clamoring for any of these three to run in 2020 is a sign that the party is not singularly obsessed with finding an “electable” candidate. Democrats might regret this choice if Trump defeats, say, Sanders or Warren in 2020, carrying Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin along the way.