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I'd be really curious to find out what the biggest year-over-year BABIP increases/decreases for teams that played in the same parks (more or less) in both years... is the Red Sox drop an outlier? Within normal expectations given the current BABIP environment?

Knowing the answer to that would go a long way towards figuring out signal from noise here...

The big X factor, with apologies to Bogaerts, may well be Benintendi. At 2.2 WAR he is a perfectly useful player but if he can find a way to develop a bit more consistency and become a 3-3.5 WAR player the Sox become a much better team.

Some nut on the White Sox forum the other week posted they would have preferred Benintendi to Moncada. Yikes. That said, Benintendi is a fine player. He's just limited as I don't think he's a true CF and is best in a corner OF.

I went back about ten years and I think .297 was the lowest point for the Sox with a high of .329 (I think). The generally were above .310 which I think is a park factor issue. Fenway is going to boost BABIP because of the Monstah.

MV - I’d disagree that Benintendi can’t hack center, in the little time I’ve seen him out there he looked more comfortable than he did in the first half in left field. He grew into left field and was considerably better in the second half but I don’t think CF is beyond him.

Moncada really came on in the second half I see. That’s good news. I think he’s a higher ceiling than Benintendi but Benitntendi is a higher floor. I think Benintendi at worst is an OK every day player. Conversely Moncada could be a star but the K rate is still frightening.

I went back about ten years and I think .297 was the lowest point for the Sox with a high of .329 (I think). The generally were above .310 which I think is a park factor issue. Fenway is going to boost BABIP because of the Monstah.

Thanks, Jose. So--in theory--we were 10-15 points lower than a "normal" Red Sox BABIP season. I'm sure part of that could be due to Ortiz retiring + increased shift usage, but that still could be simply a season of bad luck.

I strongly suspect Dombrowski's gonna make a run at Stanton or Martinez (AZ version) in an effort to bring in more power; in either scenario I'm guessing/assuming we lose either Benintendi+ or Bradley+ (or possibly even both+ if it's Stanton).

Side note on Vasquez: He should be starting 4 out of every 5 games next season. Enough with this job split nonsense. If his bat plays in 2018 playing 120 games the way it did in 2017, that's a hell of a valuable C to have.

And while it frightens me to play Hanley at 1B for 100 games, if he's a better hitter doing that, I think you have to go that way with it--and who knows--maybe he gets hurt in doing so and doesn't meet the PA needed to trigger the option... Which they should actively, aggressively, make sure is not triggered.

You guys are too negative about Hanley. His ALDS performance was the true Hanley, free from injuries. Also, I find the OPS+ and WAR calculations very odd -- I've never seen a 750 OPS become a 95 OPS+ before, or negative WaR. IF not injured and playing first base, 2016 is the true Hanley, in which case we definitely want to trigger the option.

I strongly suspect Dombrowski's gonna make a run at Stanton or Martinez

Is JD Martinez enough of an upgrade over Benintendi or Bradley to spend the money it's going to take to get him? Let's say 75% of the time Martinez is a 3-6 WAR player & B&B are 2-4 WAR, anyone disagree? Why pay $18M+ per year for Martinez for that small of an upgrade?

Giancarlo has more upside for sure, but since 2011 (his first full season) he's only averaged 127 games a season. Is it all that good of an idea to sign on for 10 years at $30M per?

My ultimate wet dream is Votto. He'd look good in a Red Sox uni. And of course solve the 1B problem.

Even in 2016 Hanley was at 3 WAR. Seems like they could do better with the $22M not triggering the option would free up.

Ugh, that triggering option is going to become a controversy, isn't it? I don't understand why teams/players don't anticipate these issues at the time of the signing and structure the deals differently.

I guess I have to reserve judgment until his replacement is hired, but my first impression is it's a bad move. Farrell may not be great, but he's not bad either.The Bobby Valentine nightmare is still too recent to ignore just how bad it can get.

Yeah. I mean dismissing 2014/2015 out of hand seems silly but we've won 2 straight division titles. All I can think of is Joe Morgan saying "they're going to find out these guys aren't as good as they think they are" and Butch Hobson coming in and proving it.

You guys are too negative about Hanley. His ALDS performance was the true Hanley, free from injuries. Also, I find the OPS+ and WAR calculations very odd -- I've never seen a 750 OPS become a 95 OPS+ before, or negative WaR. IF not injured and playing first base, 2016 is the true Hanley, in which case we definitely want to trigger the option.

I would also expect a better season from Mookie next year. He had a BABIP of .310+ in his first 2 1/2 seasons and it was just .268 this year. He did hit fewer line drives this year in exchange for more flyballs, but his hard contact rate increased.

Votto's on a 5/$132 contract (incl. buyout in 2024), which... looks fairly reasonable, all things considered. So my guess is (a) it would take a ton to get him and (b) as mentioned above, it seems unlikely he'd waive the NTC.

Still, I think you kick the tires on it. It would probably cost you BOTH of Benintendi & Bradley, and then also some pitching--say EdRod + ? (as pitching is their greatest need). Is losing all that worth Votto? Maybe?

The Red Sox are in a tough spot--the marginal upgrades they'd get at some positions with big name guys would cost them holes in other parts of the lineup (because they'd be included in trades).

"Play better" of course, isn't a strategy anyone wants to hear in the off season, but standing pat (except for firing Porcello into the sun) with the hitting (aside from finding a guy to play 2B assuming Pedroia misses significant time) wouldn't be the *worst* plan in the world... It's just that it's an *unlikely* plan for a guy like Dombrowski to follow.

I expect a lot of moves this off-season. Some of Dombrowski's comments today spoke to an attitude of "I got here and we've tried it your way for a couple years now... Now we're gonna try it my way..."