The U.S. may have experienced more than its fair share of unusual weather
this past year, but this has nothing to do with global warming.

Global warming theory advocates were quick to seize on last summer's
heat waves and the devastation caused by Hurricane Mitch as evidence that
global warming is underway. But the recent spate of mild winter weather
has some Americans wondering if global warming is really that much of a
problem.

During a recent visit to Newport, Rhode Island, President Clinton said,
"...[O]n this magnificent December day in Rhode Island, it's hard to
see [global warming] as a threat... I appreciate this wonderful day."1

Many Americans no doubt agree. Milder temperatures permitted Americans
to enjoy such outdoor activities as bicycling, running and gardening a little
longer in 1998. Perhaps more important, the mild weather has saved consumers
a considerable amount of money in heating bills. In November, declining
demand for heating fuel resulted in a 12% drop in spot gas prices - good
news for consumers, particularly those on fixed incomes.2

But mild weather can no more be credited to global warming than severe
weather events like hurricanes can be blamed on it. Just because the weather
is mild in one area of the world does not mean the entire planet is warmer.
Indeed, at the very time the U.S. has enjoyed mild weather, Europe has
been experiencing a severe cold snap. Since the first week of November,
temperatures in northern Scandinavia have repeatedly fallen below -20°
F while Moscow's temperature has consistently been below freezing.3

Our recent mild weather is more likely linked to La Niña, the
large-scale drop in sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern
tropical Pacific, than global warming. According to the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niñas are characterized
by warmer than normal winters in the Southeast and colder than normal winters
in the Northwest.4

It's also worth noting that mild winter temperatures in the U.S. are
nothing new. In December 1888 - when the planet was presumably colder than
it is today - Pennsylvania reached 82° F.5

Proponents of the global warming theory have also erroneously assumed
that the high death toll from Hurricane Mitch - estimated at 11,000 - is
evidence that human activities are warming the planet beyond acceptable
levels. To drive this point home, NOAA scientists recently announced that
Mitch was the deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic basin since 1780, when
a hurricane that struck Martinique, St. Eustatius and Barbados killed 22,000
people.6 But even if this were the case, setting a 218-year hurricane fatality
record is hardly evidence that global warming is underway. For one thing,
the 1780 Caribbean hurricane occurred during the Little Ice Age, when the
planet was close to 1° F cooler than it is today.7 Since twice as many
people lost their lives to that hurricane as lost their lives to Mitch,
hurricane fatalities seem to be a poor measure of the planet's temperature.
For another thing, hurricane fatalities should be higher today than they
were 50, 100 or even 200 years ago - even assuming no change in hurricane
intensity - due to increases in population density and better recordkeeping
methods. As population grows, more people will be vulnerable to severe
weather. It's as simple as that. Finally, it is not clear that Hurricane
Mitch was the most deadly hurricane since 1780. A hurricane striking Galveston,
Texas in 1900 killed between 8,000 and 12,000 people. In its haste to show
"record" hurricane fatalities, NOAA simply edited out the upper
range of this death estimate.8

Global warming theory advocates have also argued that this year's heat
waves were the result of global warming, as though the U.S. had never experienced
hot weather before. This year's hot weather didn't even set records. North
America's record high was reached on July 10, 1913, when Death Valley hit
a sweltering 134° F. None of the other seven continents broke records
either. Africa hit its record high in 1922, Asia in 1942, Australia in
1889, Europe in 1881, South America in 1905, Oceania in 1912 and Antarctica
in 1974.9 So much for "record" temperatures being linked to global
warming.

The recent mild weather should give those seeking regulations to curb
global warming cause for second thoughts, however. Some scientists believe
that warmer global temperatures would produce milder evening and winter
temperatures and longer growing seasons. Before we move to stop global
warming, we must not only be sure it is underway, but that we want to stop
it.

David A. Ridenour is Vice President of The National Center for Public
Policy Research, a Washington, D.C. think tank, where he oversees the group's
environmental program. Comments may be sent to [email protected].