Tuesday, May 10, 2011

The Chinese authorities seem to be concerned over the admiration for Osama bin Laden as an "anti-US warrior" that seems to prevail among some sections of its growing community of netizens These sections seem to believe that OBL's war against the US indirectly helped in countering the US threat to China by keeping the US forces preoccupied in dealing with OBL and Al Qaeda. Now that OBL is dead, the US may have more resources for being used against China. So they fear. An interesting analysis on this subject carried by the Chinese Communist Party controlled "Global Times" on May 10,2011, is annexed. (11-5-11)

When US President Barack Obama announced to the world that the most wanted terrorist in modern history has been killed, public opinion was naturally split along the geopolitical divide with most Westerners celebrating, while many in the Middle East mourned.

In China, however, the public's reaction, as measured by a number of unscientific online polls, was split amid concern that Bin Laden's demise might refocus dormant tensions between the US and China.

Almost 60 percent of the 500,000 people who took an online survey conducted by Hong Kong based Phoenix television, agreed with the statement that Bin Laden's death was a sad event because "he was an anti-US warrior."

Barely 18 percent clicked the statement to indicate they were happy that "the head of terrorism" had been killed, while almost 10 percent of respondents selected the option that indicated they didn't care.

Meanwhile, the Chinese government didn't waffle in its support for the killing of Bin Laden. After his death the Chinese Foreign Ministry welcomed the news, saying his death was an "important event" and that terrorists are a public enemy that China opposes terrorism in all its forms.

Another online survey posted on the Global Times' Chinese website asked participants whether they thought the US would get tougher on China now that Bin Laden is out of the picture. More than 75 percent of the 17,000 respondents clicked "yes."

A thread on mop.com, one of China's leading online bulletin boards, suggested Bin Laden's death should be revenged by "attacking the most vulnerable parts of the US."

One writer suggested that Bin Laden had been a helpful foil to a number of US presidents. "Thirty years ago, he helped President Reagan take down the Soviet Union, 10 years ago, he helped President Bush begin his military campaign in the Middle East, and now his sacrifice will surely help President Obama win re-election."

While many experts discount the veracity of online surveys to provide a true measure of public opinion, they also agree that the responses are worrisome.

"Many of the opinions expressed online are irrational and ill-informed. People need to calm down and reflect on what they are saying," said Shen Dingli, professor of international relations from Fudan University in Shanghai.

Shen has no doubt that the world is now a better, safer place without Bin Laden. "Osama bin Laden was a terrorist, and his death will not only save many people's lives, it will also bring comfort to the families of those who died. His death is good for humanity," he said.

Another scholar, Xu Zidong, from Hong Kong's Lingnan University, believes the decade-old hunt for the terrorist mastermind distracted the US from engaging China on a number of contentious issues.

"Before the 911 attack, the US saw China as its biggest threat. Relations between the two countries were very tense after George W. Bush took the office in January 2001," Xu said.

In February that year, the US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, upped the pressure on China by ordering a re-evaluation of Sino-US military communications strategy. A month later, Bush ordered all departments to re-evaluate their China strategy.

Two months later a US navy aircraft collided with a Chinese military fighter jet near Hainan Island, killing the Chinese pilot Wang Wei. The US aircraft made an emergency landing on Hainan and its crew of 24 were detained until the US delivered a written account of the incident to the Chinese government.

Three weeks after the military jet incident, Bush announced a $4.5-billion weapons sale to Taiwan, the largest since the president's father sold 150 F-16 fighter jets to the island almost decade earlier.

President Bush added fuel to the fire and caused an uproar in China when he told American reporters that the US would take all necessary means to protect Taiwan.

"The Taiwan question has always been the most contentious issue between the US and China and Bush's remarks were intolerable. To be honest, we believed the situation was going to continue to escalate," said Zhu Feng, professor of International Relations at Peking University.

In September of that year, New York's World Trade Center buildings were attacked and US attention become firmly fixed on to the Middle East.

"After 911, I had a sense of relief that the pressure between China and the US would ease off, but the discontent and anger among Chinese isn't easily forgotten," Xu said.

Over the past decade, China and the US have cooperated on a number of fronts to combat terrorism. Two weeks after 911 officials from both countries met in Washington to develop an anti-terrorism framework.

China also agreed to provide greater political and diplomatic support to the US in the United Nations after 911, noted an essay published by the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The authors also suggest China played a role in improving ties between the US and Pakistan.

As well, China helped hem in Al-Qeada militants by closing its border with Afghanistan and allowed an American aircraft carrier to refuel and re-supply in Hong Kong.

In response to China's moves, the US listed the "East Turkistan Islamic Movement" as a terrorist organization in 2002, and killed it's founder, Hasan Mahsum, during a joint military operation with Pakistan in 2003.

Relations were strained again in 2004 after the US released members of the East Turkistan Islamic Movement who were being held as prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and refused to hand them over to China.

Many political scientists believe that China and the US have too much at stake on too many other fronts to allow their country's hawks to force a serious deterioration of relations. The two countries' economies are all but dependent on bilateral trade, financing and investment. The countries have also cooperated on international legal issues such money laundering, human trafficking and piracy.

"The death of Bin Laden won't have much influence on current Sino-US relations. The war on terrorism is far from over and the US will be on high alert for a terrorist attack for the next five to 10 years," said Sun Zhe, director of the center for Sino-US relations at Tsinghua University.

"It's unlikely the US will continue to give China a hard time and the political situation is totally different than it was in 2001. The US seems to have realized that pressure tactics can only harm relations," he added.

And indeed relations continue to move apace as witnessed by the Third Sino-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, which ended in the Washington yesterday. At the meeting Vice Premier Wang Qishan perhaps offered a hopeful insight into future bilateral relations when he said "China and the US have far more shared interests than differences."

"So the voice from the Internet is just a flash in the pan, the greater trend can't be stopped, no one wants to see giants like China and the US in conflict," said professor Shen.

Can Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance in protest against the violation of its sovereignty by the US naval commandos who raided Osama bin Laden's house at Abbottabad on the night of May 1,2011, and killed him and as a mark of its indignation over the crescendo of US allegations and suspicions regarding a possible complicity of the Pakistan Army and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in facilitating OBL's stay at Abbottabad for nearly five years?

2. According to reliable sources in Pakistan, this is one of the options being considered by the political and military leadership to ward off public criticism over the perceived inaction of the political and military leaders in the face of the repeated violations of Pakistan's sovereignty by US Drone (pilotless) aircraft in the tribal belt in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and at Abbottabad by the naval commandos.

3. The violation of the sovereignty at Abbottabad has been particularly galling to officers at the lower and middle levels of the Armed Forces. The reputation till now enjoyed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), in the eyes of these officers as a quiet strong man has been dented. Many of these officers no longer regard him as strong as they originally thought he was.

4.Concern over the damage suffered by the reputation of Kayani and other senior officers is behind Kayan's visits to many garrison towns after a Corps Commanders' conference in the GHQ in Rawalpindi last week to explain why the Abbottabad raid took the army by surprise.

5. According to these sources, many in the Corps Commanders conference voiced their disquiet over the failure of the civilian political leadership----particularly President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani--- to vigorously defend the Army and the ISI in the face of the attacks on their competence and professional integrity emanating from high levels of the US Administration, including Mr.Leon Panetta, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who co-ordinated the commando raid.

6. The aggressive anti-US remarks of Gilani in the National Assembly on May 9 were prompted by the seething anger in the Army over the perceived hesitation in the civilian leadership in coming to the defence of the Army and the ISi. The cordiality that till now prevailed in the relationship between Prime Minister Gilani and Kayani is showing signs of being dissipated.

7. These sources feel that the danger of another coup being staged by a resentful army is remote because the Army is no longer confident of enjoying the support of the increasingly independent and fearless judiciary in legitimising any coup post-facto. At the same time, the Army's disillusionment with the leadership qualities of Zardari is showing signs of increasing and pressures are likely to increase for his exit. The salvos against Zardari and Gilani fired by Shah Mehmood Quereshi, former Foreign Minister, for their incompetent handling of the Abbottabad raid have been inspired by his Army backers.

8. These sources add that it is in this context that suggestions are being made for some dramatic action by the political and military leadership to salvage the reputation of the country. One such suggestion is for a unilateral renunciation of US assistance. Whether this option will be accepted and implemented or not will depend on the kind of support China is prepared to extend should Pakistan unilaterally renounce US assistance. To ascertain this will be the principal objective of Gilani's four-day visit to China from May 17. The fact that Gilani has not immediately dashed off to Beijing, but will be going only after a week would indicate a desire to avoid over-reaction in the heat of the moment. ( 11-5-11)