The only conspiracy I'm aware of is the conspiracy to keep me from ruling the world. I don't see why. All I ever wanted to do was to crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and hear the lamination of the women!

Buying the 50 period moving average on a 15 min chart once again got you in at the days lows. In an uptrend this tends to be a consistently good entry point. Of course, trading in hind-sight is easy....

I think metals are still in rally mode and starting to smell the plan from the EU/ECB.

I see nothing today making me want to sell gold (4x).

I've been whipsawed on silver (what else is new) trying to get and hold a position (losing about 1%), but I'm still long about 0.5x hoping my stop holds. I want to see silver and gold rally up in the next 30 min (into the day trading session close at 1:30pm eastern.)

In other words, silver has been and continues to be a dog against gold for 6months now with no signs of changing.

Even if gold continues up I'm not sure silver will and I'm not sure I should continue ramming my head against a wall with it if and until it starts clearly outperforming again. It is too volatile, the margins are too high, and it's almost impossible to pick good stops.

With the world collapsing and people wanting safety I think it is clear that gold is protection and wealth. Silver is a momo play that depends more (like stocks) on enthusiasm and good times than on solid old-wealth protection.

Case and point notice that we have only had ONE significant super bubble in silver (early in year) and that was only during and commitment to all the QE1 and QE2 stuff. Towards the end of it before things went in the toilet again (EU).

I just think maybe I have a 'fighting the last war' bias towards trying to make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011. The facts don't support messing with silver much at this time as I reflect more and more on it.

Silver is trying to break above its downtrend line and 20ma (Bollinger Band mid line)... simultaneously. That's quite a feat to ask. If it manages to do it, I wouldn't want to be short silver. Notice the 50ma is starting to arc upward. That's a warning to shorts IMO.

"make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011"thats a little bit of an understatement. The big money was made in silver earlier this year. The gold moves are chump change and gives little to be excited about

Silver will move..eventually..in short sharp spikes like it always does. And then whipsaw you to death in the other times.

And if you are long and wrong it is almost impossible to get out fast enough.

I'm just gonna focus on trying to get to 6x+ on gold futures with the expectation that we are about to break above the main daily downtrend line (the highs last week). There should be an adding opportunity around that point with small stop.

My 4x position is already locked in pretty good with less than a 1% stop loss if all this fails and crashes lower.

Silver just isn't worth it until it really starts acting stronger on a ongoing basis. And that INCLUDES not collapsing back periodically when things get shakey and giving up weeks of gains on a whim.

Early in the year showed the type of silver activity that was worth playing (and we did). This isn't it.

Remember my earlier comments that even if silver outperforms gold by 2x, I can, instead go *3x* on gold, beat silver, using dramatically less margin, less volatility, cleaner stops, and be able to sleep at night instead of thinking things will turn and drop 10% in a few hours.

>"make money in silver since I did well on it early 2011"thats a little bit of an understatement. The big money was made in silver earlier this year. The gold moves are chump change and gives little to be excited about .

Yes, it is an understatement, but it is also a sore spot for many here so I just leave it at that.

As for 'chump change' I assure you gold's lower volatility allows more leverage in exchange. I could easily have a 10% entire net worth gain for this single week the way things are going.

Yes, if you play gold at 1x it moves slower. But that isn't a requirement and I would argue that 2x-3x is easily doable even with gary's approach.

Going higher requires more of a tight stop system like I use to limit that risk. It also means more losses and more adrenaline.

Seems unlikely this indecision is going to resolve today. And to varying degrees the cycles and sentiment levels for the varying "plays" are in ambiguous enough territory to support a move in either direction. Without any clearer signal from the markets today, holding a position into tomorrow feels too much like gambling...

Sophia, well, Gary always says, surprises come to the upside in bull markets. Also he says that any mistake will be fixed if one holds.

I'm still in cash. I'm thinking though to put in a BUY STOP LIMIT order at gold's breakout point. I may buy PHYS this time instead of GLD, too. The problem of money printing is now truly global, and CB's are working in unison. This could be the final takeoff I fear.

TZ, Yes! On GLD. A very very small position, in one day, out the next. Broke the ice for me. GLD is lower now, so I am smiling to know that buying low and selling high works. I also learned here that cost averaging UP is the way to go (as opposed to Cramer's cost average down). I learn a lot here. Although cycles still eludes me.

Interesting how GLD went up today but GDX is coiling sideways. I still have it in my head that GDX outperforms GLD 2:1, so days like this teach me to just trade GLD, as GDX is too unpredictable and erratic for my skill level. GLD looks easier.

Each EU announcement so far has been a disappointment. No reason to believe this one will be any different... except that everyone is expecting another disappointment. If there is any surprise to the upside I'd watch out(short term) if I were a short.

You can't read into the relative action between GDX and GLD intraday or even over a couple of days. Compare the performance for this week and you'll see that GDX is outperforming GLD. Compare the performance since the daily cycle low a couple of weeks ago and you'll see there's a near 2:1 performance.

More recently in this intermediate cycle the 2:1 relationship has held up, though as TZ points out over a much longer-term chart this has not held up. And we've yet to see miners decouple from the stock market in a meaningful way, which is another fly in the ointment.

Didn't WW say that GLD has a slanted H&S? I'm seeing it now, on a 3 mo 60 min chart. GLD needs to get above 170.80 for me to believe we're going up. Looks to be curling over a bit now ... can't be sure though. I never trust gold.

DeMark update:ES, NQ, YM, and TF Futures are a day ahead of the index count for a DAILY TD SELL setup - currently on Bar 8 of 9.SPX, NDX, and DJI are on Bar 7 of 9, needing a new high either tomorrow or Friday to perfect the SELL setup. Good for a 1-4 DAY reaction (Monday - Thursday of next week). Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite are on Bar 6 of 9, so a little divergence there. We have a deferred DAILY Sequential 13 signal, needing a high above SPX (futures) 1275.92 to perfect. Also, NDX (futures) 2355.78. When those record, expect a 12 DAY (2 1/2 week) reaction. So, it's looking like markets may initially rally on the Europe news, then sell off into the end of the year. Stay tuned...

Wav_ridah, just saw your charts from the prev blogpost (earlier today). Very very good. The one that stuck out the most to me was your monthly $USD, showing the backtest. This combined w/COT suggests to me that gold will go up soon, and perhaps far. Thanks for sharing.

HUI closed slightly positive. GDX slightly negative. Blah. Either way quite a few black candles formed today in the miners that did manage to close green, which means we will be closing lower than today's close at some point in the future. Someone please show me an instance of black candle that wasn't followed up by a lower close. It's much like a "gap" in that respect.

Green, see ABX on Nov 28th - black candle - followed by an up day. May 9th also. Among black candles, I see these about 25% of the time. I now never look at black candles, nor hollow red. Same as I don't look at volume anymore either. That's just me.

Bill, the blackCandle doesnt necessarily need to get negated the very next day. It's just whennypu seenone, you known that at somenpoint in the future it will get negated.

For example, on sept 13 2010 hecla formed a black candle and closed a bit under $6. The candle was never negated and hecla proceeded to run to $11.

I didnt think that black candle under $6 would ever get negated, but it did, eventually. I hate black candles, and if a stock runs higher immediately after forming one and without closing below that candle, you can guarantee that at some point the stock is coming back down to close below the black candle.

Bill, the blackCandle doesnt necessarily need to get negated the very next day. It's just whennypu seenone, you known that at somenpoint in the future it will get negated.

For example, on sept 13 2010 hecla formed a black candle and closed a bit under $6. The candle was never negated and hecla proceeded to run to $11.

I didnt think that black candle under $6 would ever get negated, but it did, eventually. I hate black candles, and if a stock runs higher immediately after forming one and without closing below that candle, you can guarantee that at some point the stock is coming back down to close below the black candle.

Everybody makes calls and has a 'system'. And everyone gets some calls wrong. The best thing I've learned from Gary, is that if you manage your risk and minize your losses, the gains should take care of themselves.

Also, most people only confuse themselves by reading too many Market guru blogs.

Was just looking at $GOLD's weekly chart ... noticed how the correction now looks like the 1st 1/2 of the correction in 2008. After that correction, we had 3 yrs of steady upward movement. It wouldn't surprise me if we were in a long, slow D wave down still. The weekly MACD is pretty wide open still.

GDX - will go ex-dividend on December 23, paying about a 10 cent income distribution and 60 cent long term capital gain. Taxable even if you only hold the ETF that day. GDXJ will be much worse - 68 cent long term gain, but I saw on SeekingAlpha that the income dividend could be $2.

Certainly looks like a bearish sell the news reversal for stocks/PMs. We could reverse back up but unless your scalping intraday moves I don't know why one would hold positions without more clarity. Feels like gambling to me...

Yeah super trading there WW,though I don't have the time nor the stones for the daytrading I do enjoy your real-time announcements, and to read your reasoning behind them. Once again 10 DMA swoop failed and gold hit its head on the downward trendline.

Now it looks to have found some floor in the lower trendline from our DCL, let's see if that holds (using 6/12 as HCL).

One thing I can predict: if the Europeans manage to get their act together tomorrow as I believe, there will be blood on the street...The bears now think that they have a license to kill, but the Bulls might end up winning buckets!

I remain long miners and a smaller position in PHYS, holding comfortably and looking to possibly dial up my risk a little more if we get a washout. Today doesn't qualify as the panic isn't severe enough, IMO.

That might have been a low in gold just now (we are putting in a seeming small triangle just under the daily downtrend line), but we may also have altered the direction and the entire mess might be heading higher to 1630 or so.

This is gonna take a bit of time to sort out.

Good job again WW. You nailed this one today. I gave back all profits over last 2 days.

i doubt this is about whatever the draghi news is as much as it is about getting out of the "buy into the ECB meeting" trade because people have been quietly sneaking out of risk and into bonds all week.

gold looks a heck of a lot more bullish than stocks here but i'm not touching it either way.

10 year will be making new highs soon. i don't follow the dollar anymore but it'll probably do well as this is happening.

Bernanke wants a weak dollar. Buying the dollar has just as much risk as stocks. and is just as volatile. This morning the dollar was down big only to reverse on the statement out of the EU.

The problem is that everyone wants an environment with a strong trend so they can take a position and hold on.

Unfortunately we just aren't in that kind of environment anymore. The markets are being ripped back-and-forth by fundamental events that are taking place daily. In that kind of environment one has to have a very short term investing horizon and be willing to turn on a dime every day.

I said months ago when the dollar bottomed that we were now going to be in a very volatile trading environment. The days of taking a position in silver and holding for months are gone, at least for the next year.

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