Iowa Poll: The early favorites for 2016 presidential race

Dec. 14, 2013

Hillary Clinton, left, and Paul Ryan / Getty Images photos

Coming Monday

How do Iowans feel about health care reform and its rollout? Check DesMoines Register.com at 7 p.m. tonight for a sneak peek at the results, or find them on the front page of the Monday Register.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 8-11 for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 650 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers contacted households with randomly selected landline and cellphone numbers. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Questions based on the sample of 650 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register is prohibited.

Mitt Romney’s 2012 running mate is wildly popular here with a 73 percent favorability rating, a surprise finding that reveals he’s at the forefront of potential 2016 GOP presidential candidates in the nation’s kickoff voting state.

Two former winners of the Republican caucuses have the second and third highest favorability ratings among voting-age GOP’ers — 66 percent for Mike Huckabee, 58 percent for Rick Santorum — among 10 buzzed-about Republicans tested in this poll.

But their popularity isn’t as striking as the overwhelming affinity Iowa Democrats have for Hillary Clinton, with 89 percent saying they have a positive opinion of her. Just 7 percent of voting-age Democrats have a negative impression the former U.S. secretary of state and U.S. senator from New York.

“Clinton’s score is eye-popping and shows she is viewed more favorably than any Democrat or Republican by a big margin,” said Jeff Link, an Iowa Democratic operative.

But the poll brings to light another reality: Clinton would likely face a firestorm of opposition from Republicans in Iowa if she runs for president again — a majority of Republicans, 59 percent, have a “very unfavorable” view of her, the most negative rating possible. “That’s a monster number,” pollster J. Ann Selzer said. “Were she to be nominated, there would be a resurgence of this ‘we hate Hillary’ faction that has been dormant.”

The poll tested four Democrats considered likely 2016 suspects. It shows Clinton is the dominant figure; just about everyone “knows Joe,” but two virtual unknowns — at least in Iowa — have considerable ground to make up if they are to have a chance here.

Vice President Joe Biden is popular with 71 percent of Iowa Democrats. But about 70 percent have no clue who Brian Schweitzer (a former Montana governor) or Martin O’Malley (Maryland’s governor) are.

The poll of 650 Iowa adults ages 18 and older was conducted Dec. 8-11 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and has a margin of error of plus or minus 7.3 percentage points for Republicans and plus or minus 8 percentage points for Democrats.

Back on the GOP side, just over two years out from the next caucuses, Texas Gov. Rick Perry ranks fourth among Iowa Republicans with a 55 percent favorability rating.

Tied for fifth most popular are U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who are viewed favorably by 51 percent of Republicans. But when it comes to negative feelings, Christie’s numbers are the worst of the potential GOP hopefuls — 30 percent of Iowa Republicans don’t like him.

Fewer than half of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The three ranked lowest on their party’s popularity scale, tied for 46 percent, mostly because at least a third of Iowa GOP’ers don’t know enough about them to form an opinion.

Cruz, a vocal opponent of the Affordable Care Act, has the highest negatives of the bottom three on the GOP popularity scale.

Ryan, meanwhile, is popular with 40 percent of all Iowa adults, regardless of their political leanings. Republican poll respondent Mark Twedt, a 52-year-old teacher from Rockwell, has a “very favorable” opinion of the Wisconsin congressman and thinks he’d make a good president.

“He would probably take us more toward a conservative path,” said Twedt, who has never voted in the Iowa caucuses. “I would just probably like his ideas on taxing and entitlements.”

Clinton, on the other hand, is far too left-wing, Twedt said.

“I think she’s probably pretty smart. She scares me — I think she could get things done, but it’s not the things I want to see get done,” Twedt said. “She’s got some power.”

Clinton is popular with 50 percent of all Iowa adults. Should she enter the race, Huffington Post senior polling editor Mark Blumenthal said, she’d be in a position of strength in Iowa just short of that of an incumbent president.