Started with protests in Daraa in 2011, the Syrian conflict rapidly turned into a war with a number of foreign powers supporting various militant groups (including al-Qaeda-linked) against the government of Bashar al-Assad. Since then, the country has been a point of instability in the Middle East.Russia began a military intervention in Syria in 2015 after an official request by the Syrian government for military help against militant groups.This allowed the Syrian government to survive and to regain initiative in a battle against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda), ISIS and other militant groups.

SAA will not do it because of LAvrov-Kelly agreement, but I hope to be wrong.

gold37

That deal is likely to be defunct on this front. The Iranians are dealing with this, its personal to them now,

Ronald

I hope its personal with someone , the towns on the east side of the river are extremely likely to be weapons and other facilities of ISIS entrenched troops. The Bukamal airport will not be safe to use until there is a significant buffer zone and the water access critical to Syria’s agriculture . The Syrian – Iraqi border held areas need to be expanded upon not surrendered to SDF .
This is Syrian land , not SDF .

gold37

That is true, it all belongs to SAA, all the way to Qamishli and Afrin. Socially, one side won, the SAA side. It will be so, regardless if its military or diplomatic means. The whole region is collapsing due to the bets made by the other side. The rest can try again in 50 years. It finished in Aleppo about a year ago.

Ronald

On AMN today , 11/9/2017 , on the east side of the river , ” the occupied towns of Al Asharah , Souseh and Al-Jala are filled with thousands of Islamic State fighters that retreated from Al Mayadeen and Al Bukamal ” .
Never underestimate the enemy , as the backlash can be fatal .
The Iraqi – Syrian border needs a sweep all the way up to Turkey , but only after they fully secure the Al Bukamal area .

Hansi Hintern

The Big Plan is probably to clean all the IS-held territories left of Euphrates river first, then cross the river, otherwise the US would continue to drop suplies/weapons and reinforcements there, which would backstab the SAA on a regular basis. Once the SAA crossed the river, the Kurds/SDF then will have the choice to retreat into the small territory, where they actually are the majority population or face a fully-fledged war against SAA.The real Kurdish territory in Syria is only a small strip in the north. Maybe the SDF will be too dumb or corrupt (bribed by USA) to understand their position. Anyways, a few weeks later they would be back in their “hood”, either with certain autonomy or with a few 10000 men lost.

I’m quite sure, that that is the Russian planning/thinking. They often did not attack the IS territories frontally, but when they had it surrounded, they would finally clean it up. Yes, the remaining IS-territories are mainly rocky deserts and mountains/caves, but still they will have to be cleaned up.

Barba_Papa

If they wait too long to clear ISIS east of the Euphrates, chances are the SDF will move south and occupy this territory right up to the Iraqi border. I don’t think there is much ISIS left on either side of the river. Maybe in Iraq north of the Euphrates.

On the down side, even if the SAA and allies were to cross the river, they’ve never shown much initiative and drive to exploit their crossings so far. Although in all fairness the crossing near Deir Ezzor was probably less about gaining access to the oil fields and more about securing the eastern bank across Deir Ezzor, as the SAA has since put a lot of effort in securing this city. So a limited operation. Far more limited in its objectives as we thought.

On the plus side the Tigers have never been deployed to cross the river and exploit any bridgehead. So maybe we don’t know what a real SAA operation (and by that I mean under Russian supervision) could do if the objective was to land a large force across meant to grab as much territory as possible. On the down side again, the Tigers are still far away from Bukamal. So I’m not expecting anything soon. Plus they can’t be used forever. They need time to rest and recover as well.

John Brown

Great analysis Hansi. Don’t listen to Barba papa he is a Mossad disinfo troll.