Honolulu Winter Outlook 2014-2015

Honolulu will see a very interesting winter ahead with the main influence coming from El Nino and the Southern Jet stream storm track. An El Nino track can bring both heavy rain and maybe some snow at the highest elevations of the highest peaks this winter.

We are gearing up for a moderate El Nino at this point. If we have a big southern storm track we will see above normal rainfall and even a bout of severe weather this winter. El Nino winters can bring extreme weather with extreme weather month to month. It's all about how big El Nino decides to become once we hit December, January and February.

So we looked over the last 50 years of El Nino winters and 8 were weak El Nino's, 4 were a moderate El Nino and 7 years were classified as a strong El Nino. We are placing a good deal of our forecast on El Nino this winter simply due that we feel it will be a weak to moderate event.

It's going to be one of those "if you don't like the weather wait a minute" kind of winters. I expect to see thunderstorms, wind and warmth.

Other factors into our forecast are the usual NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The STJ or Sub Tropical Jet along with the Arctic Oscillation and PNA or Pacific North American Teleconnection.

Honolulu Winter Summary

It is going to be WARM and wetter this winter. The warmest month will be December and the coldest in February. We expect to see no snow this winter but rainfall above average esp. in February. El Nino may show up late this winter..we'll see.