Airfreight confidence flagging as 2015 begins

Declines in the December Stifel Logistics Confidence Index suggest a gloomy start to 2015 as survey indicators for both the present situation and expectations for the next six months declined last month, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti), which compiles the index.

Declines in the December Stifel Logistics Confidence Index suggest a gloomy start to 2015 as survey indicators for both the present situation and expectations for the next six months declined last month, according to Transport Intelligence (Ti), which compiles the index.

The overall index was 1.4 points lower than in November and 0.1 points lower than its level in December 2013. “This may be indicative to the current economic environment,” said Ti senior analyst Cathy Roberson. “For example, economic slowdowns are being reported throughout Europe while China’s government injects additional money into its economy to jump-start growth and Japan slips into a recession,” she said.

The index for the present situation for airfreight, which slipped 0.5 points to 53.6, “suggests economic slowing may indeed be the culprit.” She also noted that the Eurozone economy only just avoided recession in the third quarter and poor business confidence and the on-going sanctions against Russia will continue to weigh on European cargo in the near future. IATA’s latest monthly airfreight data cautions that the rate of growth in the Chinese economy continues to slow down and may impact air cargo.

According to the Stifel Index all trade lanes except Europe to US noted weakness. The increase of 4.6 points to 52.1 on the Europe to US lane was the first time since May 2014 that this lane was above the 50-level, which notes expansion, Roberson observed. “Encouraging economic signs from the US may be one of the reasons for this improvement. However, the Europe to Asia lane slipped 3.0 points to 47.0, a contraction,” she added.

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