News from the Votemaster

Former four-term Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson
won
the Republican nomination to contest the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI).
Thompson narrowly defeated businessman Eric Hovde, as well as former representative Mark Neumann, and Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald.
Swimming against the tide, Thompson is a moderate defeating two very conservative candidates, Hovde and Neumann, who split
the tea party vote.

In November, Thompson will face Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI), who if elected would be the first openly lesbian woman elected
to the Senate. Wisconsin has traditionally been a blue state, but elected a Republican governor and Senator in 2010.
Thompson has universal name recognition in the state and has a good chance to pick off a Democratic seat that Kohl would
have kept had he run.

This is an important win for the Republicans since the Democrats have only a three-seat majority
in the Senate. If Thompson wins, along with Republicans in Nebraska and North Dakota, that gives them three more seats.
They also have a good shot at winning Missouri, Virginia, and Montana. In Maine, independent Angus King is certain to win
and will probably caucus with the Democrats. Massachusetts is a tossup. All in all, Thompson's victory greatly increases
the chances that the Republicans will take over the Senate.

A Pennsylvania judge
refused
to issue an injunction delaying enforcement of the state's new voter ID law until after the election.
It requires voters to show ID to vote. Democrats sued to have the law delayed because it affects poor people
and minorities disproportionally and they are largely Democrats. The decision could cost Democrats up to 10%
of the vote in Pennsylvania and possibly prevent enough people from voting that the otherwise blue state could go to Romney.
The decision will be appealed to the state supreme court, but that is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
In the event of a tie, the lower court ruling stands.

When it comes to voter ID laws, the Republicans have a big advantage because they are willing to play hard ball and the
Democrats are not. All the new voter ID laws passed by Republican-controlled state legislatures since 2010 affect only
in-person voting, where there is virtually no fraud. These laws effectively disenfranchise many poor and minority Democrats
who don't have voter ID cards. Getting them requires taking time off from work and paying fees to get birth certificates
and other documents needed to get an ID card, even if the card itself is free.
When Democrats control the state government, they could balance the scales by putting much tougher rules in place to
prevent absentee-voter fraud, which really is a problem in some elections. This would affect Republicans adversely since
many of the absentee voters are people out of town on election day on business, the elderly, and the military. But
Democrats do not want to do something that gives them partisan advantage because they have always fought to increase
the number of people who can vote, not decrease it. At the dawn of the Republic, only propertied white male Protestants could vote. The
franchise has gradually expanded over the years but is still contentious (e.g., voting rights for felons who have
served their time).
If Republicans were really serious about stopping voter fraud, they would aggressively pursue legislation to stop
absentee-voter fraud, where there really is a problem, but they don't because that would work against them.

A poll half taken before Paul Ryan's addition to the Republican ticket and half afterward shows
an improvement for him.
After his selection
his favorable/unfavorable ratio was 38%/33%. Before he was picked it was 23%/32%.
But as he gets better known, these numbers are likely to change substantially.

Groups that represent minorities and women are looking closely at Paul Ryan and
do not like
what they see.
A much larger percentage of blacks and Latinos depend on Medicaid than whites do. Ryan would turn Medicaid into a program of
block grants to the states, which might not use them to help the current recipients of aid. Women's groups are unhappy with
Ryan's anti-abortion stand and gay-rights groups don't like the fact that he voted against repealing the military's
"Don't Ask Don't Tell" policy. An editorial on colorlines.com described Ryan as a nightmare for poor people
and people of color.

Some press reports about Janna Little Ryan, wife of vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan, have depicted her as a
stay-at-home mom who takes care of her kids. This is currently true, but she is
no newbie
to politics.
She hails from Oklahoma, where her uncle, David Boren was a (Democratic) governor and senator. Boren's son is a
congressman. Her parents were both wealthy, well-connected lawyers and she is a millionaire.

Before she was married, Janna Little was a tax attorney and lobbyist.
She lobbied
on behalf of health-insurance companies and the Cigar Association of America. She is obviously more like Hillary Clinton
than like Laura Bush. If Team Romney decides to use her in the campaign, she will be able to hold her own, but will
come under attack for her past lobbying work.