What I say unto you I say unto all, watch. Mark 13:37

November 21, 2011

No Support For Israel In The White House?

The last year has seen the White House become empty of people
who have a deep personal knowledge of the Israeli situation and who care about
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. At first it was the much publicized
resignation of former White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel who was involved
in every significant detail of the White House’s Israel agenda.

Then David Axelrod, top political advisor to President Barack
Obama left for greener pastures and last summer, Dan Shapiro chose to become US
ambassador to Israel over taking the position of White House Middle East desk
chief.

If that is not enough, next month Dennis Ross, Obama’s senior
advisor on the Middle East, will be leaving office. Ross’ White House exit has
barely raised a murmur in Israel even though it is one of the biggest losses to
the US government as far as relations with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict are concerned. It leaves Israel without a reliable contact within the
White house.

Rahm Emanuel was replaced by Bill Daley who doesn’t deal with
the Israel issue. Axelrod, whose focus was the political significance of
relations with Israel, was replaced with David Plouffe who is busy with managing
Obama’s election campaign and has no connection to the Israel-Palestinian
matter.

Pointless waste of time

Steve Simon now heads the US National Security Council’s
Middle East desk and was immediately drawn into the Arab Spring uprisings.
Shapiro was Obama’s top adviser on Israel and the Middle East during the 2008
presidential race and came with him to the White House. He had access to Obama’s
inner circle, access that Simon will have to work hard for.

Ross, 62-years-old, decided that after three years of working
in the White House, it would be pointless to waste his time working around the
clock when it is clear that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian
President Mahmoud Abbas aren’t making any progress while President Obama who is
disappointed by both leaders, lacks the commitment the process needs due to the
fact that it is an election year.

Ross’ resignation is sad news for the Israeli and Palestinian
public who seek a peaceful solution in the region. The resignation is also
disappointing for the Israeli government who had an approachable and
understanding source who could find swift solutions when problems and
misunderstandings arose.

Ross’ resignation also comes at a bad time for Obama, who
needs Ross during the election year as a credible advocate among Jewish
Americans. It would seem that Ross does not see this as a sufficient reason to
continue in his thankless job 24/7.

Soft diplomacy

Many of the best and brightest have collapsed under the
pressure after 18 months in the White House. Dennis Ross managed to survive for
nearly three years.

Ross often found himself in the minority opinion, he believed
in small steps and not in connecting any US strike against Iran with Israeli
concessions on the settlements. He was opposed to exerting public pressure on
Israel to halt settlement construction, a move special Middle East envoy George
Mitchell favored.

Ross believed in the policy of exhibiting soft diplomacy in
public, making progress behind the scenes, while at the same time understanding
the political difficulties that Netanyahu’s right-wing government is under.

Mitchell promoted a stance that demanded that Israel halt
settlement construction in exchange for normalization of relations the Arab
world, including opening the Arab skies to and air space to Israeli commercial
flights. Mitchell’s stance failed. And the more Mitchell faded away, the more
Ross took center stage. Yet after a few months it was clear to him that at this
point, there was no one to talk to.

Ross’ stance put him in a problematic position with the
Palestinians. Abbas no longer wanted to meet with him and Jordan’s King Abdullah
hinted at a “problem” with him in an interview given in the US. This might have
also contributed to Ross’ decision to resign.

A source within Washington said that Dennis Ross understands
Israel in high definition and is irreplaceable. The source added that while Ross
doesn’t always see eye to eye with Israel, there has always been mutual respect
and there are very few people who have his experience, knowledge and the
expertise at a time when the Iran issue is becoming a major issue during an
election year.

The source noted that Ross can play the game of Middle East
chess in a way that only a very few would be capable of and that Ross’ decision
to reason was due to exhaustion.

Nothing to do

Aaron Miller, a Middle East specialist currently a public
policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, was
Ross’ deputy as Middle East envoy during the Clinton administration. According
to Miller, at this stage there is nothing left for Ross to do within the
government.
Miller stated that there is no credible peace process, no expectations from
Netanyahu or Abbas to exhibit leadership and no Arab leader willing to step up
to the plate. The fall of Assad’s regime in Syria will further complicate
matters at this stage.

Miller added that if someone were to tell him that there was
a breakthrough in negotiations, that the US was involved in a serious process
between two leaders and a US president investing his time and efforts in the
process, then he would think Ross had something to do as he offered perspective,
sensitivity and experience that no one else has.

Now that Ross is out of the picture, Miller finds himself on
a very short list of State Department alums who are Middle East experts that
might be under consideration by the White House.

The two frontrunners are Dan Kurtzer who endorsed Obama’s
candidacy during the 2008 democratic primaries and Martin Indyk, a close
associate of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The question is – who will be
willing come in on an election year where the results are far from clear. †