Prediction of educational technology to be found in the public schools of the year 2000 : a Delphi study

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Abstract

The world is shifting into an unprecedented
technological age. Towns such as Blacksburg, Virginia, are
now being called "electronic villages" with electronic
infrastructure which not only ties together all aspects of
the town but also connects the town to the world. Reality
becomes "virtual" with information unimpeded by time and
distance.

This rapid advancement in electronical technology is
having an impact on world educational systems. Those
planning the future of education have a need to know what
directions this new technology might take in order to
interface such technologies with the schools. The purpose of
this study was to predict which present and emerging
electronic technologies would be in significant use in the
K-12 schools of the year 2000.

The Delphi technique was used to gather predictions from
an expert panel of teachers, administrators, electronic
media specialists, and those working in the technology
industries. The predictions were gathered from winter 1994
to fall 1995 for the year 2000, taking into account the need
for a reasonably accurate prediction which could be used for
those now engaged in short-term planning and those engaged
in generating the appropriate technologies for the schools.
The types of present and emerging electronic
technologies "to be found in K-12 schools of the year 2000
were solicited in round one of the study. Rounds two and
three identified which technologies would indeed be in
significant usage. Using a scale of 1 to 4 (1= very
unimportant, 2= unimportant, 3=important, 4= very
important), a group mean and standard deviation were
calculated for each identified technology. Those
technologies with a mean score of 3.00 or higher in round
three were predicted to be those likely or very likely to be
used in the K-12 schools of the year 2000.