Noise and Signal Callers: Week 14

“Noise and Signal Callers” is a statistical smorgasbord for the upcoming NFL week. Some of the stats are (hopefully) predictive, while others are just interesting. I leave it to you to sort out which is which.

Oakland @ Kansas City

Oakland

Kansas City

Starting QB

Derek Carr

Alex Smith

Spread

3

-3

Over/Under

46

46

Implied Total

21.5

24.5

Derek Carr

In three games against the Chiefs in 2015 and 2016, Carr has averaged 234 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, 1.7 interceptions, and 13.0 FanDuel points per game.

The Browns rank among the worst 10 teams in the league in the following passing categories (among others):

Yards

Touchdowns

Interceptions

Yards per attempt

Sacks

Chicago @ Detroit

Chicago

Detroit

Starting QB

Matt Barkley

Matthew Stafford

Spread

8

-8

Over/Under

43.5

43.5

Implied Total

17.75

25.75

Matt Barkley

In their first seven games, the Lions allowed opposing QBs to score 24.2 FanDuel points per game.

In their last five games, the Lions have allowed opposing QBs to score 11.7 FanDuel points per game.

Matthew Stafford

The Lions pass the ball on 65.2 percent of plays within 10 yards of the goal line. That’s most in the league and 15 points above the league average of 50.2 percent.

Stafford has averaged 13.4 FanDuel points in five games against the 10 stingiest defenses for fantasy QBs (including the Bears). He has averaged 22.7 points per game against all other teams.

Houston @ Indianapolis

Houston

Indianapolis

Starting QB

Brock Osweiler

Andrew Luck

Spread

6

-6

Over/Under

47

47

Implied Total

20.5

26.5

Brock Osweiler

The Colts held Ryan Fitzpatrick and Bryce Petty to 9.9 FanDuel points in Week 13. That’s the first time they’ve held an oppenent’s QBs to fewer than 10 points in 2016, and they didn’t do it in 2015 either.

34 QBs have reached 20 FanDuel points at least once this season. Osweiler is not among them.

Andrew Luck

In six games where Luck has been sacked at least three times, he has averaged 17.8 FanDuel points per game.

In six games where Luck has been sacked fewer than three times, he has averaged 23.6 FanDuel points per game.

The Texans are averaging just 1.8 sacks per game, tied for fourth-lowest in the league.

Minnesota @ Jacksonville

Minnesota

Jacksonville

Starting QB

Sam Bradford

Blake Bortles

Spread

-3

3

Over/Under

39

39

Implied Total

21

18

Sam Bradford

Bradford is the only QB to play at least 10 complete games who hasn’t finished among the top-10 QBs in any week.

Blake Bortles

Bortles has thrown 15 interceptions, most in the league.

The Vikings have intercepted 12 passes, tied for fifth-most in the league.

Mariota has averaged 17.1 FanDuel points per game against the 10 toughest defenses for fantasy QBs. He has averaged 22.4 points per game against everyone else.

New York Jets @ San Francisco

New York Jets

San Francisco

Starting QB

Bryce Petty

Colin Kaepernick

Spread

2.5

-2.5

Over/Under

44.5

44.5

Implied Total

21

23.5

Bryce Petty

The 49ers have allowed seven top-12 QB performances. Only the Browns have allowed more (8).

31 percent of Petty’s passes have targeted Robby Anderson.

Colin Kaepernick

Since the merger, only four QBs have had more rushing attempts than passing attempts in a game where they threw at least five passes: Tim Tebow (twice), Bobby Douglass (five times), Bradlee Van Pelt, and Kaepernick in Week 13.

Seattle @ Green Bay

Seattle

Green Bay

Starting QB

Russell Wilson

Aaron Rodgers

Spread

-3

3

Over/Under

46

46

Implied Total

24.5

21.5

Russell Wilson

Wilson has finished outside the top 18 QBs seven times through 12 games. He finished outside the top-18 QBs just once in 2015.

Brian has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade, and he made the jump to 2QB in 2013. If you follow him @BrianMaloneFF, he will at some point lecture you about longevity and positional baselines until you tell him to shut up.