2011 NFL Draft

There has been a lot of talk about Ryan Mallett’s “character concerns” and “attitude problems” all season, and it came to a head over the past few days as we all prepared for the Sugar Bowl.

I’m usually quick to knock a player down – especially a quarterback – due to character concerns, but I’m struggling to understand exactly what Mallett’s issues are.

To this point the allegations against Mallett are so vague I can’t even bring myself to hold them against him. I made an effort to pay close attention to Mallett’s expressions and body language on the field last night, but I saw very little which concerned me.

At one point Mallett did become frustrated, something which NFL Draft Scout’s Chad Reuter noticed as well. But overall I don’t think he crossed the line in terms of showing up his teammates. His receivers dropped multiple passes, which may have cost his team the game, but Mallett kept his composure. I’ve seen Peyton Manning in similar situations give his receivers some far dirtier looks than anything Mallett did on Tuesday night.

In order for these rumors to emerge, something must be going on behind the scenes. For whatever reason, someone out there doesn’t like Mallett and is quick to supply scouts with stories. Wes Bunting of the National Football Post recently quoted a scout as saying: “I got stuff on Mallett that no one even knows about and I wouldn’t touch him.”

Comments such as that may lead you to believe that Mallett will fall on draft day. It’s certainly possible, but not with the information that is currently out there. Prior to the 2006 draft I heard far worse about Jay Cutler – rumors which I will not repeat because I believe they hold no merit – and the Broncos still selected him in the 1st round.

There is no doubt that teams have heard the same vague reports, and possibly even more detailed comments from those close to the Arkansas program. They will drill Mallett during the interview process, talk to teammates, coaches and anyone else who knows him personally.

In the end, I don’t anticipate Mallett’s stock suffering from these rumors. I believe he is a 1st-round lock and could even come off the board as high as No. 3 to the Buffalo Bills.

It seems like every day a new reporter finds “sources” to tell him that Andrew Luck is leaning toward staying in school. I’m inclined to call “BS” on anyone who says Luck is leaning towards staying at Stanford, especially since it sounds as though Jim Harbaugh is as good as gone. But I’ll humor those who think he’s staying for a moment and throw together a quick mock draft based on the scenario that he stays. Here’s the top 10 of the “what if Luck stays” mock draft…

1. Panthers – Da’Quan Bowers – DE – Clemson
The Panthers don’t need a quarterback, so they won’t take one unless Luck is there. Their pass rush was abysmal this season, and they missed Julius Peppers even more than anyone could have anticipated. Bowers is coming off a monster year and should be an instant-impact pass rusher at the next level.

2. Broncos – Patrick Peterson – CB – LSU
With Josh McDaniels gone, the Broncos may be ready to give up on Tim Tebow after just three games. However, I don’t think they’ll reach for someone like Newton or Mallett with the second pick. The safe bet is to take Peterson, the best available player. Champ Bailiey may not return, and even if he does he’s on the downswing of his career.

3. Bengals – A.J. Green – WR – Georgia
One of the biggest decisions any team has to make this offseason is the Bengals’ looming decision about Carson Palmer. They could cut him loose and draft a new franchise quarterback here. I don’t think they’re willing to give up yet, however. A.J. Green is an elite talent and could be the young receiver Palmer needs to get the offense back on track.

4. Bills – Ryan Mallett – QB – Arkansas
The Bills need a quarterback to build around and should be able to get one in this year’s draft. But who will it be? Mallett, Locker and Newton are all worth considering. It’s pure speculation at this point, but I think Chan Gailey and Buddy Nix will lean toward the strong-armed Mallett.

5. Cardinals – Prince Amukamara – CB – Nebraska
The Cardinals are another team in need of a quarterback, but I expect Ken Whisenhunt to push for them to bring in a veteran. As a result, they’ll turn their attention to the defense in the draft, landing either Amukamara, Cameron Jordan or Nick Fairley here.

6. 49ers – Cam Newton – QB – Auburn
Until a GM and a coach are in place it’s tough to predict how the 49ers will handle the draft. But one thing is certain: they need a quarterback. If they need to make a decision between Newton and Locker, expect Newton to be their guy.

7. Cowboys – Cameron Jordan – DE – California
Jordan isn’t nearly the most well-known of the top 3-4 defensive ends, but I believe he is the best of the bunch. The Cowboys will be looking to improve the defense, making Jordan a strong possibility here.

8. Texans – Nick Fairley – DT – Auburn
The Texans need to address their secondary, but with Peterson and Amukamara off the board they must turn their attention to the defensive line. Fairley is an elite pass-rushing interior lineman who reminds me of Ndamukong Suh.

9. Lions – Robert Quinn – DE – North Carolina
The Lions offense is progressing, but the defense still has some holes. Kyle Vanden Bosch hasn’t worked out and the Lions will likely look to upgrade their pass rush this offseason. Quinn may be the best pass-rushing end available in this draft class.

10. Browns – Julio Jones – WR – Alabama
The Browns are now committed to Colt McCoy, but now they need to supply him with some weapons. Jones, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd, Jon Baldwin and Torrey Smith could all be options depending on who leaves early for the draft.

I firmly believe that the success of an NFL franchise over a long period of time hinges on the stability of the front office and their ability to build through the draft. For that reason, I have a more interest in how a team handles its search for a new GM than for a new head coach.

This offseason the most high profile search for a new GM appears to be going on in San Francisco. They’ve been a floundering franchise for longer than most of their fans would care to admit and this has a chance to be the turning point.

Here’s a quick look at their candidates and my assessment of how they would fit in.

The 49ers draft didn’t yield much in 2009, but it’s difficult to say what role Baalke had on draft day. The jury is still out on Michael Crabtree, but it appears that he is the only thing that draft class will yield.

In 2010 they reached for Anthony Davis and then added Mike Iupati later in the 1st round. Davis was nothing short of a disaster at right tackle, having yielded 11 sacks already this season. If this draft is an insight into how Baalke will run a draft, he seems like the type to favor need over best available players. I disagree with this strategy, but as I said, that assumption is only based on one draft.

Michael Lombardi - NFL Network AnalystLombardi has been out of the NFL since 2007, and hasn’t played a meaningful role in front office decisions since the late 90s. He was Al Davis’ right hand man from 1999-2007, serving as the “Senior Personnel Executive” (whatever that means). Essentially his role was to oversee the scouting process, from both the pro and college side, but as we all know Al Davis always called the shots in Oakland. For this reason, it’s tough to judge Lombardi’s talent evaluations, but I would be wary of hiring someone who served as Al Davis’ assistant. The Raiders are a mess and Lombardi at least played some role is sending them spiraling downhill.

Tony Softli - NFL Analyst for various media outlets
I hate to be this cynical, but I find it hard to believe that Softli was interviewed for any reason other than the Rooney Rule. Softli was the Rams VP of Player Personnel from 2006 through this past May – the most embarrassing four years in franchise history. It isn’t fair to pin all of their troubles on Softli, but it was his job to oversee both the pro and college scouting departments.

During the first three drafts of the Softli era the Rams 1st round picks were Adam Carriker, Chris Long and Jason Smith – none of which have lived up to expectations. Long has been a quality starter, but certainly not what the Rams envisioned after taking him 2nd overall in 2008.

I have a hard time believing the 49ers would go this direction.

Ted Sundquist - Director of Player Personnel, Omaha NighthawksSundquist is another guy that’s tough to evaluate. He was the Broncos GM from 2002-08, but by all accounts he was below Mike Shanahan in the chain of command. Shanahan made the final decision on all personnel moves (many of which were bad decisions) so it’s tough to know which moves Sundquist agreed with and which ones he challenged Shanahan on.

It sounds as though Sundquist was really had little to do with personnel decisions in Denver. He was essentially in charge of contracts and balancing the salary cap. However, he was the Broncos director of college scouting from 1995 to 2002. That’s a nice background to have, but that was a long time ago in NFL years.

Sundquist is an interesting candidate based on his past experience, but probably not someone to get too excited about. Afterall, there has to be some reason why he hasn’t managed to resurface in the NFL since 2008 and has been banished to the UFL.

Final Thoughts
This isn’t a group of candidates to get excited about, by any means. It lacks anyone with a proven track record and each candidate comes with legitimate concerns. If I had to rank them, I’d go in this order:

[note: I starting writing this up a few days ago before recent reports that all five suspended Buckeyes would return to school. But I took the time to write it, so here it is. Enjoy now, or stash away until next offseason.]

I’ll start by saying that Terrelle Pryor needs to stay in school. If he wants to play quarterback at the next level he should spend another year absorbing all that he can from Jim Tressel and offensive coordinator Jim Bollman. Tressel and Bollman have done an exceptional job developing quarterbacks with far less talent than Pryor such as Troy Smith and Craig Krenzel. If Pryor puts in the work, he can still become an elite college quarterback in the final seven or eight games of his career.

With that said, there is certainly a chance that Pryor turns pro – although I do not believe that it is a sure thing as many would have you believe. Remember Pryor chose Ohio State over Oregon, Michigan and Penn State. A gifted athlete such as Pryor could have excelled at either Oregon or Michigan from day one. Their offensive schemes are designed for a quarterback like Pryor, and would have required a much smaller learning curve.

Pryor, however, wanted to be turned into an NFL quarterback. He knew a coaching staff that could take Krenzel and Smith and get them jobs in the NFL, they could certainly do the same for him. So long as Pryor remembers why he came to Ohio State in the first place – which I believe he does – there is an excellent chance that he returns to school.

Pryor should return to OSU, but will he?

Of course, I would be foolish to assume that he’s smart enough to stick around. He may declare for the draft and if he does, he will be one of the most discussed prospects in this year’s class. So let’s breakdown his draft stock.

Accuracy
All the athleticism and arm strength in the world can’t make up for an inability to fit the ball into tight spots. When he’s standing in the pocket, Pryor’s accuracy is above average. He consistently hits receivers in stride and maintains his accuracy on throws all over the field.

However, when Pryor is pressured and fails to set his feet his accuracy gets thrown out the window. His athleticism can be an asset at times, but it also does him a disservice. He thinks he can throw on the run simply because he is able to escape pressure, but he would often be better off throwing it away or even taking a sack than attempting to make throws that is he simply isn’t capable of on the run.

If he can become a more patient quarterback and understand that he needs to set his feed and remember his mechanics when on the run, he can overcome this issue.

Arm Strength
Pryor can make all the throws necessary to play at the next level. With just the flick of his wrist he can launch the ball downfield. And unlike his accuracy, his arm strength doesn’t fail him on the run. This is clearly one of the biggest assets Pryor has going for him and is sure to catch the attention of GMs, coaches and scouts at the combine and/or his pro day.

Mechanics
When he isn’t facing pressure, Pryor’s mechanics are actually pretty good. His footwork is excellent; he does a great job quickly dropping back while keeping his head on a steady plane.

However, as soon as he feels pressure he forgets his mechanics. He often throws off his back foot, or with his shoulders open and it results in inaccurate throws. This is where his arm strength hurts him. He has the strength to get the ball to his receiver despite poor mechanics, and he simply trusts his arm strength over his accuracy in these situations. With more self-awareness Pryor can eliminate these mistakes.

Athleticism/Toughness
Pryor’s athleticism is overstated, much like it was for Tim Tebow last year. There is a difference between athletic and elusive. Michael Vick is elusive – he can make linebackers and defensive backs miss in the open field. Pryor is athletic enough to make some defensive ends miss, but will rarely juke his way past smaller, more athletic defenders.

What Pryor does have going for him is his size. He is as strong as many linebackers and even some defensive ends, making him difficult to bring down. Simply put, you have to wrap him up to get him on the ground. As an added bonus, he isn’t afraid to take a hit. He’ll lower his shoulder into a defender to pick up extra yards on the run.

Understanding the Offense
Only Ohio State’s coaches can truly evaluate this aspect of Pryor’s game. Fortunately he plays for a coaching staff that is well respected by NFL personnel, and they will rely on the opinions of Tressel and his staff.

My outsider’s view of Pryor is that he is willing to learn, but slow to adjust. He has progressed throughout his career, but not nearly at the rate which his raw ability should allow. The issue here lies with his willingness to trust his teammates on the field. He still has a tendency to use his feet more than necessary, and this is where he makes mistakes. He needs to become a more patient quarterback, and that only happens with practice.

Leadership
This is another area where Ohio State’s coaches will be heavily relied upon to provide an evaluation. However, we do have the ability to see how he acts on the field. Pryor appears to be genuinely liked and respected by his teammates. However, that is much easier to accomplish on the collegiate level when everyone is roughly the same age. In the NFL Pryor will be asked to be a leader of men 7 to 10 years older than him. This is something that often hinders the development of young quarterbacks (see: Ryan Leaf, Jimmy Clausen).

This could also be an issue for Pryor. He often shows frustration on the field and on the sideline, specifically when his teammates miss assignments. Young college players looking to gain the respect of their star quarterback will put up with this, NFL veterans will not. There’s no way to predict whether or not this will be an issue, especially because it never became one at Ohio State. However it is certainly something I would address with Pryor and his coaching staff if I were an NFL GM or coach considering drafting him.

Final Thoughts
Pryor has the talent to play quarterback in the NFL. There is no denying that. Skeptics who say he needs to play receiver are overreacting and aren’t seeing the whole picture. That said, he isn’t ready to compete in the NFL.

I believe that Pryor’s struggles can only be fixed with practice, practice and more practice. He needs to become more comfortable with who he is as a quarterback. He has shown the ability to be great when he is patient and given time in the pocket, but when facing pressure he crumbles. Only at the college level can he break these bad habits. Being thrown into the fire in the NFL – even if only on the practice field – could actually cause him to regress. In an effort to keep up with the speed of the pro game, Pryor may revert back to the skills with which he is most comfortable.

If he enters the draft this year I would not draft Pryor before the 5th round. However, I will acknowledge that someone probably will. His upside – both as a quarterback and as a receiver – would likely make him a top 100 pick. Should he return to school and continue to develop, Pryor could turn himself into a 1st-round pick. He has a very similar skill set to Cam Newton, who established himself as a 1st-round prospect with an impressive season this year at Auburn. Pryor, even in a shortened season, could do the same in 2011.

* The most well-known prospect in this game is West Virginia running back Noel Devine. He’s an explosive athlete, but probably isn’t anything more than a kick returner/3rd-string running back at the next level. His stock has also been hurt by a foot injury which has slowed him for much of this season. He probably won’t come off the board until the 6th or 7th round and may struggle to make a roster if he can’t win a job on special teams.

Safeties with Robert Sands' size and athleticism don't come around often

* The top prospect in the game is actually West Virginia safety Robert Sands. He is a gifted athlete with rare size for the position (6’5″, 220 lbs). He’s primarily played free safety at West Virginia, but is probably better suited to play strong safety or even outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme in the NFL. He’s only a junior but definitely could make the jump this season.

* Another player in West Virginia’s secondary to keep an eye on is cornerback Brandon Hogan. Personally I think Hogan is extremely overrated. He’s had some off-field issues and has been inconsistent throughout his career. However, he clearly has the athleticism and raw talent necessary to play at the next level. If he reaches his full potential he could be a starter, but I wouldn’t draft him until the 5th or 6th round.

* On the offensive side of the ball for the Mountaineers, keep an eye on wide receiver Jock Sanders. Like Devine, he is undersized and will be limited in his ability to make an impact at the next level. However, he does have big-play ability and could contribute on special teams.

* The player to watch for N.C. State is inside linebacker Nate Irving, who may end up being their only player drafted this April. He doesn’t have elite speed, but has been tremendously productive for the Wolfpack. He should be a mid-round pick and is definitely one of the more intriguing sleepers at his position. He’s the type of guy who has the instincts to potential excel at the next level despite limited physical tools.

It’s been a strange year for Jimmy Clausen. After sliding all the way to the second round of the draft he finally winds up in Carolina. And now just a few months later Clausen may be preparing for his final start as a Panther.

With their loss on Thursday and wins by the Bengals and Broncos, the Panthers clinched the No. 1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Assuming Andrew Luck enters the draft – which I believe is a foregone conclusion – the Panthers will make him the top selection.

But is it too early to give up on Clausen?

His performance this season has been nothing short of horrendous, but what can you really learn from a poor performance as a rookie? If history tells us anything, the answer is nothing.

Success as a rookie is certainly meaningful. The rookie record for passer rating is held by Ben Roethlisberger, followed by Dan Marino, Y.A. Tittle and Matt Ryan.

But the opposite end of the scale gives us two really good reasons why it’s two early to give up on Clausen, and their names are John Elway and Troy Aikman. Can you imagine how different the NFL would look if the Broncos and Cowboys had given up on them after one season?

In 1983 the Broncos finished 9-7, but it was in spite of Elway, not because of him. What if they had thrown in the towel and selected Boomer Esiason in the 1984 draft?

In 1989 the Cowboys finished 1-15. What if they had given up on Aikman and drafted Jeff George or Andre Ware the following season?

I’m not saying that drafting Luck is the wrong decision for the Panthers. I think he is the best quarterback to enter the draft in years – at least since Peyton Manning if not longer. No matter who your current quarterback is, you can’t go wrong by taking a player with Luck’s talent.

So while Carolina heads in a new direction, other teams around the league should jump at the chance to land Clausen at a cheap price (he could probably be had for a 3rd or 4th round pick). He has the skills to be an elite quarterback in this league and there’s no reason to be scared away based on a few rough games as a rookie.

Georgia Tech has turned into a fairly successful NFL factory in recent years, but this was a down year for them on the field and in terms of producing prospects. They still have a few players worth watching, but no one special. As for Air Force, like all of the service academy schools, there likely won’t be anyone from this roster playing on Sundays.

Allen is a tough between-the-tackles runner who could be a late-round pick

* The only player in this game that has a better than 50 percent chance of hearing his name called on Draft Day is Georgia Tech running back Anthony Allen. He has legitimate NFL size (6’0″, 230) but doesn’t have the speed to be much of a threat with the football. Realistically, he won’t be anything more than a short-yardage back at the next level. Guys like Allen aren’t hard to find, so his ability to make a NFL roster will depend on his contributions on special teams.

* The top defensive prospect in this game is Brad Jefferson, Georgia Tech’s starting inside linebacker. Jefferson is a tremendously productive college linebacker, but lacks the speed and athleticism to draw serious attention from the NFL. This bowl game is a perfect chance for him to boost his stock. Air Force will run the ball on nearly every play, giving Jefferson plenty of opportunities to showcase his talents.

* Georgia Tech safety Mario Edwards, a transfer from Virginia Tech, would have been a player to watch but is academically ineligible. He has NFL size and athleticism and could be a late riser up draft boards with some impressive workouts this offseason.

* The top prospect in this game is actually a junior, Florida International’s T.Y. Hilton. He’s an undersized but explosive receiver. He should return to school, but it wouldn’t be a shock if he left early.

T.Y. Hilton has a future in the NFL and may be an early entry to the 2011 draft

* FIU cornerback Anthony Gaitor may be the top senior prospect in this game. He’s too small (5’9″) to be a starter at the next level, but has the speed and athleticism to be a nickel corner. There are plenty of cornerbacks that enter the draft each year with Gaitor’s coverage ability, but what makes him stand out is his willingness to play an aggressive style of football. Too many small corners back off from tough assignments, but Gaitor will play at the line of scrimmage and mix it up with bigger receivers and even get into the backfield to help out against the run.

* Like FIU, Toledo doesn’t have many senior prospects. Cornerback Desmond Morrow may be their best shot at having a player drafted this year. His production has been average at best, due to a history of injuries. However, his size (6’2″, 200 lbs) will catch the eye NFL teams. If he’s invited to the combine he will have a chance to rise up draft boards.

* A player to watch for the future is Toledo receiver Eric Page. He’s only a sophomore, but has already emerged as their top weapon on offense. He has surpassed the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first two seasons and should be on the NFL radar screen starting next year.

If you’re looking for future NFL stars you’re going to be disappointed tonight. Hawaii has struggled to develop the same talent as during the June Jones era and Tulsa has never produced many NFL stars. There are few players worth keeping an eye on though.

* The top prospect in the game is Hawaii wide receiver Greg Salas. I won’t blame you if you’re a little skeptical about Salas initially. Hawaii receivers often put up gaudy stats and fail to produce in the NFL. However, I believe Salas has what it takes to produce at the next level. He doesn’t have breakaway speed but he has great hands and is an efficient route runner. He could be a mid-round pick who contributes immediately.

Alex Green is one of the fastest rising running back prospects

* Another offensive player worth keeping an eye on is Hawaii running back Alex Green. His size (6’2″, 230 lbs) is hard to ignore and he is quietly having a huge year for the Warriors, averaging 8.8 yards per carry. He reminds me of Jaguars fullback Greg Jones, who played running back during his days at Florida State. He won’t be drafted as high as Jones, but has a chance to carve out a similar NFL career if he continues to develop.

* The only potential 2011 draftee on Tulsa is fullback Charles Clay. He’s a prototypical blocking fullback who can also carry the ball when asked. He has legitimate NFL potential, but the fullback position is dying out so there’s no guarantee he’ll hear his name called. Still, this is his chance to shine. Teams looking for a fullback will have their eyes on both Clay and Green in this game.