[Manhattan Absorption] January 2014 – “Bottom 99%” of Market Is Tight

Thoughts
For the overall Manhattan Market, in fact for the “Bottom 99%” (I love saying that) of the market, the absorption rate is well below the year ago period. Record high sales and record low inventory has pressed the absorption rate to the floor. For the $10M+ market (top 1%) the absorption rate has slow sharply from a year ago. While this segment has always been a LOT slower than the market overall (see archives below), it has slowed considerably. The next highest segment $5M-$10M has essentially remained the same with the remainder of the submarkets seeing much more rapid absorption rates over the same period. All regions saw similar changes from the year ago period.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

January 2014 v. January 2013

[click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

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About Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.Learn More...

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“Jonathan Miller, owner of New York City’s Miller Samuel and one of the nation’s most prominent appraisers”–Money Magazine

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