Covering the spread: The Oregon Ducks

Winning Mentality

For those of you out there that like to occasionally place a wager on sports to fill that hole in your pocket, this article about the Oregon Ducks is for you.

Despite it being pretty early in retrospect, some of the very first college football betting lines are out; one of which includes the Pac 12 point spread.

Evident from this very early point spread is the fact that Oregon and USC will be the favorites to win the Pac 12, with a crucial game occurring between the two when the Ducks visit USC in week 10 of the college football season.

If you aren’t into risky business, however, the games listed below will have Oregon covering the spread and providing you with some extra, “hard-earned” cash.

Week Four: Arizona at Oregon (-28)

The last time Arizona visited Autzen, the Ducks walked away with a Pac 10 Championship

The Ducks are a 28 point favorite against Arizona and are rightfully so.

Last year, the Ducks throttled an Arizona Wildcat team 56-31 in Tuscon, a game that saw All-American RB LaMichael James slash-and-dash the Wildcats for 292 yards on the ground.

Expect much of the same to happen this year at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks will be coming off 3 straight non-conference home games and itching for the start of Pac 12 play. With their QB situation likely settled and their units in much better cohesion, the Autzen faithful will witness their first Pac 12 blowout of the season.

The Wildcats will be breaking in a new quarterback and have a lot of issues on the defensive side of the ball. Using this to their advantage, Oregon will be able to exploit young players as they cruise towards yet another Pac 12 victory. Expect the Ducks to put up a lot of points as well as using the Autzen intimidation to halt the attack of Arizona.

Week Five: Oregon (-17.5) at Washington State

Sure, the Cougars are breaking back into Pac 12 mediocrity, but they aren’t there just yet. With new head coach Mike Leach pulling the strings and QB Jeff Tuelleading the offense, Cougar nation is starting to feel revitalized.

However, there are still some glaring weaknesses and adjustments before Washington State is able to contend with the Ducks of Oregon.

Though 17.5 points is still quite a wide margin-of-victory, the Ducks are more than capable of covering this against Washington State due to Washington State’s new defensive scheme and offensive adjustments.

One of the biggest adjustments Washington State will be making is the transition into a opportunity-minded offensive/defensive scheme.

Instead of playing conservative football, both the offense and defense will be pushing for big plays. While this generally works with high-talent teams and can prove to be very successful, Washington State does not yet have ALL the pieces in place for this system to work efficiently.

Being so, the Ducks will be able to exploit the over-eagerness of a talented but young Washington State defense on the way to multiple scores in each quarter. On the defensive side of the ball, the Ducks will also use Washington State’s inexperience with their offensive scheme to ensure the Cougars make critical mistakes.

Week Six: Washington at Oregon (-17)

In one of the most under-appreciated rivalries in all of college sports, the Ducks should be able to cover the spread when they host the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium.

By this point in the season, the Ducks offensive unit will be running like a pristine machine and putting up points by utilizing the speed they have at all skill positions. Their defensive unit will be fueled by the Autzen faithful as the stadium should crank the volume up to a different level as the Ducks look for their 9th straight victory against the Huskies.

Sure, Keith Price will be an intimidating player and have a solid season, but the pieces around him are not developed enough to be able to make this a close game.

Losing Chris Polk and a few defensive stars really hurt the Huskies this year, and will play a significant factor on the outcome of this game.

While the Huskies should have a fairly decent year in the Pac 12 (likely finishing 3rd or 4th overall) the Ducks will be able to take the Huskies down at Autzen stadium.

Week Eleven: Oregon (-10) at California

One of the biggest surprises on the spread sites was that this particular spread only had Oregon winning by 10 in this game. Though there may be some justification to say that California will be one of the more talented teams in the Pac 12, I believe there is too much uncertainty surrounding their QB situation for the California to play this close of a game against the Ducks.

While this spread probably takes into account what happened the last time Oregon traveled to California (something all Duck fans shiver in fear when they hear about it), the Oregon offense coupled with an improved defense will prove too much for a California team that has offensive power but lacks defensive prowess.

Though I am not anticipating a blowout in this game, Oregon fans should feel rest assured that the Ducks will prevail by over ten points as they head down the home-stretch in Pac 12 play.

Week 13: Oregon (-14.5) at Oregon State

Want heartbreak? Watch the Civil War game if you’re a Beavers fan – (AP Photo/Don Ryan)

This is another game that I was surprised to see such a “close” spread. Oregon State has way too many questions surrounding the kind of play they will be receiving from their starters to be placed in a category that would contend with the Ducks during this contest.

Sure, the Civil War does have no favorites, but how can you have a team that is actually a 2-point underdog to lowly Arizona be only a 14.5 underdog to the Oregon Ducks?

As is obvious, the Ducks should be able to cover this spread with ease. Too many uncertainties surrounding the level of production of Beaver athletes will prove crucial in this game as the Ducks cruise towards yet another Civil War victory.

Taking all this into account, betting is once again a very risky thing to do.

On any given day the worst team in the nation can upset even the mightiest of powerhouses. Expect there to be fluctuations in-between now and the actual game days due to injuries, statistics, and general team expectations.

However, based on early point spreads released, the Oregon Ducks should be able to cover the games listed above with relative ease.

Check back soon to see an article about the spreads that should concern the Oregon Ducks in the 2012 Pac 12 season; this will include USC, Stanford, Arizona State, and Colorado.