In San Joaquin County, known as the Stockton metropolitan area by the U.S. Census Bureau, GDP shrank 1.9 percent in 2011, falling to $16.9 billion as measured in 2005 dollars. That loss put it 343rd among all U.S. metros.

But it was not alone, the federal bureau reported.

Within the seven Western states, including Alaska and Hawaii, 25 of the 48 metropolitan areas saw real GDP declines, largely linked to drops in real estate, rental and leasing activities in areas hit hardest by the housing crisis.

Those included other Central Valley metros, such as Modesto, whose GDP fell 2.4 percent to a constant-dollar $13.2 billion in 2011 and was ranked 354th; Merced, ranked 346th based on a GDP decline of 2.1 percent; and Chico, with a GDP drop of 2.3 percent and ranked 352nd.

Jeffrey Michael, director of the Business Forecasting Center at University of the Pacific, said the picture may be far less bleak than suggested by the federal report.

"In 2011, we were definitely still lagging the recovery, not participating in the recovery as other areas have shown," he said. "(It) wasn't a good year, but I don't think it was quite as ugly as this report suggests."

Digging into the details, Michael said, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the two leading contributors to San Joaquin County's shrinking GDP were agriculture and finance.

While the finance sector woes - a reflection of the housing downturn - make sense, the San Joaquin County Agricultural Commissioner's Office reported all-time-high farm output in 2011, $2.2 billion, which was up 14.2 percent from 2010.

As a result, Michael is sticking to his conclusion - based on other economic data, such as personal income growth - that the local economy was likely flat in 2011 and began to grow in 2012 for the first time since the onset of the Great Recession.

And he is "absolutely" sticking by his forecast that this year should see a continuation of that slow growth.

The federal bureau reported that, among the nation's 10 largest metropolitan areas, San Francisco-Oakland was the third fastest-growing with a 2011 gain of 2.6 percent. That performance was exceeded only by Houston, 3.7 percent for the No. 1 spot, and No. 2 Dallas-Fort Worth, at 3.1 percent.

Among the seven Western states, the fastest growth was seen in the San Jose-Sunnyvale metro, with a 7.7 percent gain in 2011 and Portland, Ore.-Vancouver, Wash., 6.5 percent. In both areas, durable goods manufacturing spurred growth.