The Bucs came in at 22, the lowest ranking of any NFC South team. The index predicted just 6.5 wins for the Bucs, with just a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, a five percent chance of winning the division and less than one percent chance of making the Super Bowl.

A major driver behind ESPN’s doomsaying is the Bucs’ 2018 schedule. The index estimates the Bucs have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season. This should come as no surprise given the potency of the NFC South, which sent three teams to the playoffs last year.

The FPI also ranks each team’s unit where again Tampa Bay lingered near the bottom of the league. While the offense ranked 18th, the Bucs defense and special teams were both ranked 28th. Given the defense’s abysmal performance last season where it surrendered more yards per game than any other team, this assessment should come as no surprise.