International tension focuses on the Persian Gulf and we may see conflict between Iran and the Arab States

Argentina may test British defences of the Falkland Islands, although there is little danger of war this year.

Let us see how these predictions panned out:

The government will embark on a major economic reform, intent on a radical break with the past – Interestingly there was a UK Budget on the day before (21st March) but there was nothing in it that was a radical break from the past, in fact is more of the same with a (primarily) Conservative government giving tax breaks to the rich and bleeding the remainder. The top rate of income tax (for those earning over £150,000/year – including if figures are to be believed the Chancellor himself) will be lowered from 50p to 45p in the pound. Corporation tax to fall; fuel duty to rise 3p/litre; tobacco duty to rise to 5% above inflation (equivalent to 37p on a packet of cigarettes) and child benefit to be cut. The tax threshold will be raised which is good for those on very low incomes. The fail out on this budget is huge leaving the UK’s 4.4 million pensioners worse off and pie and pasty fans up in arms as you will now have to pay VAT (currently 20%) on hot pies and pasties (although not cold pies and pasties – and the definition is a little wooly as hot doesn’t mean heated it just means hotter than the ambient temperature. So, on a warm day a pie at 25°C would not incur VAT but on a cold Winter’s day it would.

Buoyant financial figures, including a rise in private sector employment, encourage increased spending on technology and green initiatives – Not really. The UK’s borrowing is above expectations although growth figures have jumped from 0.7% to a whopping 0.8% which is going to help with our dewbt mountain of £1 trillion! That is about £40,000 per household or 500% of GDP.

International tension focuses on the Persian Gulf and we may see conflict between Iran and the Arab States – There is always international tension in the Persian Gulf and although Iran are usually in the thick or it (so to speak), I would say that it is Syria and its treatment of its civilains that the World’s attention is focused, including condemnation from other Arab States.

Argentina may test British defences of the Falkland Islands, although there is little danger of war this year – Cynically, one could say that this would be relatively easy to’ predict’. The Falklands War started on Friday 2nd April 1982 so the 30th anniversary ties in nicely with this timeframe. But let us give Old Moore a little credit because it has been making the news nearly every week with a lot of posturing from Argentina and what could be intrepretted as a provocative action by the UK with the Duke of Cambridge (second in line to the Throne) being posted to the Falkland Islands for a seven week stint. Interesting timing with the entire story though was the fact that the Duke of Cambridge came back to the UK after completing his stint on 21st March, which stoked further interest in the situation.

To be honest, I am a little cynical with both the first story (the UK always tend to have a budget around the end of March) and the last story (the anniversary of a major war where one party still feel aggrieved) are not impossible to predict for those with a bit of wit about themselves, but maybe I am allowing my prejudice to influence the results. Let me know what you think.