John F. Kennedy School of Government [Harvard University] Working Papers:

A. “The Intergenerational Transmission of War,” by Filipe R. Campante and David Yanagizawa-Drott (RWP15-039, July 2015, .pdf format, 67p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

B. “Voter Suppression or Voter Fraud in the 2014 US Elections?” by Pippa Norris and Holly Ann Garnett (RWP15-040, July 2015, .pdf format, p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: The latest issue of MMWR, Vol. 64, No. 29, July 31, 2015 (HTML and .pdf formats available from the US Centers for Disease Control site). Note: To access this issue in the future, simply click on “Weekly Report” and then “Past Volumes” on the left side of the page.

D. “Marx’s Theory of Money and 21st-century Macrodynamics,” by Tai Young-Taft (Working Paper No. 841, July 2015, .pdf format, 12p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

July 30, 2015

US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Inspector General Report: “Actual Enrollment and Profitability Was Lower Than Projections Made by the Consumer Operated and Oriented Plans and Might Affect Their Ability to Repay Loans Provided Under the Affordable Care Act,” (A-05-14-00055, July 2015, .pdf format, 20p.).

Institute for Fiscal Studies [London, UK] Working Paper: “Global engagement in R&D: a portrait of biopharmaceutical patenting firms,” by Laura Abramovsky (W15/18, July 2015, .pdf format, 29p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

No. 1240 “Luxembourg – diversifying a small open economy,” by Jan Strasky and Eckhard Wurzel.

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Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population (QSEP) [McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario] Working Paper: “Uneven Performance Of Taiwan-Born Wage Earners in the American and Canadian Job Markets: Important Roles of Educational Attainment and Entry Age,” By Kao-Lee Liaw, Ji-Ping Lin And Chien-Chia Liu (QSEP Research Report No. 458, June 2015, .pdf format, 31p.).

Abstract:

For the Taiwan-born male and female wage earners in America and Canada, this paper attempts to find their wage gaps between the two host countries and to explain the wage gaps by three factors (educational attainment, the age at entering the host country, and the recency of the entry) in the context of current age.

We apply an exponential regression model to the micro data of the 2005-2007 American Community Survey and the 2006 Canadian census. Predicted overall wage gaps are separated into two components: structural and compositional.

Our main findings are as follows. The inferiority in mean wage of the Taiwan-born in Canada relative to the Taiwan-born in America is extremely large (by 50% for males and 55% for females). Educational attainment and entry age, but not entry period, are found to be very important in accounting for these wage gaps. From the perspectives of both educational attainment and entry age, the Taiwan-born have not only a lower wage structure but also a less favorable composition in Canada than in America.

Our main findings support the ideas that potential immigrants tend to rank America higher than Canada, and that the severe competition for limited number of immigrant visas results in a sorting process that yields a higher probability of entering America for those of higher quality. They also reflect the fact that a high proportion of the Taiwan-born in Canada escaped from Taiwan in the1990s in response to the confrontational relation between Taiwanese and Chinese governments and to the military threat of China.socserv.mcmaster.ca…

The federal tax deduction for tuition is appealing: it potentially increases investments in postsecondary education with minimal administrative cost. We assess whether it actually causes greater investments by applying regression discontinuity methods to the income cutoffs that govern eligibility for the deduction. Although a substantial share of eligible households take nearly the maximum deduction allowed, we find no evidence that the deduction has a causal effect on attending college (at all), attending full- versus part-time, attending four-versus two-year college, the instructional and other resources experienced in college, the amount paid for college, or student loans. Also, we find that a significant share of households who would be just above a cut-off manage their incomes so that they fall slightly below it. We show that this income management generates bias due to reverse causality, and we impose statistically appropriate “doughnut-holes” to avoid bias. A logical analysis suggests that the deductions’ inefficacy may be due to superficial details of salience, timing, and the method of receipt. We speculate that the deductions might increase college-going if they were modified in simple ways that would not materially change their nature, administrative costs, or potential tax expenditures. We outline how such modifications could be tested.

Computing postsecondary institutions’ value-added is an essential step if we are to evaluate the costs and benefits of any policy that affects college-going. For instance, if tax credits and deductions for higher education expenses affect enrollment, the benefits that would offset the costs of these tax expenditures must come from value-added. Similarly, value-added calculations are necessary for evaluating the deductibility of student loan interest, the untaxed nature of many scholarships, taxpreferred education savings accounts, the tax exempt status of most colleges, the deductibility of charitable contributions to colleges, and numerous government spending programs that support higher education. Value-added is also crucial for whether the Treasury will ultimately to recover outstanding student debt. This paper illustrates a method for estimating the value-added of U.S. postsecondary institutions. The key challenge is overcoming vertical selection (some colleges’ students are more qualified than others) and horizontal selection (colleges’ students may be similarly qualified but differ on geography or family background). We use natural experiments to address selection: quasi-randomization by admissions staff to address vertical selection and quasirandomization by students to address horizontal selection. We combine the results from the many
experiments using paired comparison techniques. We apply the method to comprehensive administrative data on college-going and wage outcomes, and we report policy relevant descriptions of the value-added evidence.

Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research Working Paper: “Time-to-death patterns in markers of age and dependency,” by Tim Riffe, Pil H. Chung, Jeroen Spijker, and John MacInnes (WP 2015-003, July 2015, .pdf format, 28p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

US Senate Committee on Finance Hearing Testimony: “Reviewing HealthCare.gov… Controls,” a hearing held July 16, 2015 (witness statements available in .pdf format, video of the full hearing available in Flash format, running time 1 hour 8 minutes). Hearing begins at the 33:20 mark.

Center for Family and Demographic Research [Bowling Green University] Working Paper: “Gender and the Stability of Same-Sex and Different-Sex Relationships,” by Kara Joyner, Wendy Manning, and Ryan Bogle (2015-23, July 2015, .pdf format, 39p.).

Abstract:

Most research on the stability of adult relationships focuses on coresidential (cohabiting or married) couples and estimates rates of dissolution for the period of coresidence. Studies examining the stability of same-sex coresidential relationships typically find that couples comprised of two women are less stable than those with two men, a pattern that belies the widespread notion that women are more relational than men. We suggest that this paradoxical pattern reflects the fact that prior studies are based on coresidential relationships. Presumably, same-sex male couples who coreside are more select than same-sex female couples who do so with respect to factors that promote relationship stability. We use data on the total duration of romantic and sexual relationships from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to compare rates of dissolution for same-sex male couples, same-sex female couples, and different-sex couples. Results of hazard models that track the stability of relationships from the time they are formed demonstrate that same-sex male couples have substantially higher dissolution rates than both same-sex female couples and different-sex couples. Our study contributes to new research on same-sex couples and underlines the importance of examining the pathways of relationships from the date of formation.

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: The latest issue of MMWR, Vol. 64, No. 28, July 24, 2015 (HTML and .pdf formats available from the US Centers for Disease Control site). Note: To access this issue in the future, simply click on “Weekly Report” and then “Past Volumes” on the left side of the page.

US Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Hearing Testimony: “Achieving the Promise of Health Information Technology: Information Blocking and Potential Solutions,” a hearing held July 23, 2015 (witness statements available in .pdf format, video of the full hearing available in Flash format, running time 1 hour 48 minutes).

July 22, 2015

A. “Parental Divorce and Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does Context Matter?” by Emily Smith-Greenaway and Shelley Clark (PSC Research Report No. 15-843, July 2015, .pdf format, 34p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

B. “SES Disparities in Obesity, Diabetes, and Hypertension among Older Adults in Low and Middle Income Countries,” by Mary McEniry and Zhangjun Zhou (PSC Research Report No. 15-841, July 2015, .pdf format, 27p.). Note: Links to the abstract and the full text of the paper available at:

Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Data Release: The US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality has released two new MEPS data files (July 2015, data in .zip or self decompressing [.exe] ASCII text and SAS Transport format, with documentation in HTML and .pdf format, and SAS and SPSS programming statements in ASCII format).