An Unreasonable Man

Buying Stocks Seems like a Really Bad Idea Right Now October 8, 2006

…if you are a long term investor and especially if you’re an index fund investor.

Judging from the media frenzy over the last two weeks somebody might get the impression that the market is really heathy and everything is groovy. It is not. The Dow is only 30 big stocks, and the rest of the market is not keeping up. There are a number of factors that should start to drag it back down any minute.

This week’s essay by Adam Hamilton at Zeal LLC sums it up nicely. The chart below compares last week’s new highs to the highs set in 1973. I think we should see the Dow below 8,000 before we see it above 13,000.