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State Abbreviation: NJ
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If you've been following the MBS Commentary, you know what a big deal this afternoon could be. Markets have been preparing for it for weeks and MBS Live members have been on top of those movements every step of the way.

This afternoon, when markets are convulsing mere milliseconds after the Fed Announcement, MBS Live members will know what's going on before anyone else. The accuracy and speed of our real-time price stream and alerts is unmatched.

MBS Day Ahead: Another Potentially Weak Report for Markets to Disregard

Feb 21 2014, 7:45AM

It continues to be a frustrating time for bond markets--prevented, as they are from rallying very much on strong data, but with few other reasons to sell-off abruptly. All of the above hinges on the now incessantly discussed "weather issues."

We saw a perfect example of this silly dynamic with yesterday's Philly Fed release. It was much weaker than expected, but because that weakness can be traced to the weather to some unknown extent, bond markets can't derive the same amount of benefit as they otherwise might.

This, in itself, wasn't sufficient reason for the selling pressure yesterday, but there were less overt considerations such as ebbs and flows related to corporate bond issuance, not to mention the fairly small scale of the movement overall.

Beyond that minutia, it's worth considering that 10yr yields have essentially just moved right back to the most middling of middle grounds, "anything near 2.75." After all, when market watchers look back on mid-2013 through February 2014, it can all be summed up as a range trade between 2.5 and 3.0, roughly.

The only relevant piece of economic data on the calendar today is Existing Home Sales (EHS). Here's a chart of this week's housing data with today' forecast level for EHS added in (NAHB and Housing Starts already reported, of course). Once again, the risk for bond markets is that bad data is disregarded due to weather and good data can only hurt.

MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.0

96-11 : +0-00

FNMA 3.5

100-19 : +0-00

FNMA 4.0

104-02 : +0-00

Treasuries

2 YR

0.3263 : +0.0043

10 YR

2.7698 : +0.0158

30 YR

3.7329 : +0.0069

Pricing as of 2/21/14 7:45AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar

Time

Event

Period

Forecast

Prior

Friday, Feb 21

10:00

Existing home sales (ml)*

Jan

4.68

4.87

About the Author

A former originator, Matthew began writing for Mortgage News Daily in 2007, covering a wide range of topics. Seeing a need in the marketplace, his focus increasingly shifted toward relating MBS and broader financial markets for loan originators.
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