La Niña by July?

El Niño rapidly dissipated in May, and we are now very close to entering into a La Niña event, according to the latest sea surface temperature (SST) data over the tropical Eastern Pacific. The weekly SST readings in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", fell to 0.4°C below average on June 7, a full 1°C drop in just one and a half months. This puts us very close to the -0.5°C threshold needed to be considered a La Niña event, according to NOAA's latest El Niño Discussion. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology showed conditions in the Niña 3.4 region were not quite that cool--0.2°C below average for the week ending June 6. Nevertheless, the speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. However, as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center commented in their June 3 advisory, a number of the more reliable models are now calling for La Niña to develop this summer. They comment, "there is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation." Historically, about 35 - 40% of El Niño events are followed by a La Niña within the same year.

Figure 1. Atlantic named storm, hurricane, and intense hurricane activity since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995. Both La Niña and neutral years have shown similar levels of Atlantic hurricane activity, though the figures are somewhat skewed by the record-setting year of 2005. Background photo: Hurricane Dean, taken from the Space Shuttle.

It is interesting to note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event, in 1998, El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. History appears to be repeating itself, and I predict the emergence of La Niña by July. Since La Niña events tend to bring lower amounts of wind shear to the tropical Atlantic, we can expect a much more active Atlantic hurricane season than usual in 2010. Since 2010 is similar to 1998 in the behavior of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, it is possible that this year's hurricane season could resemble the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. That year had about 40% above-average activity, with 14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The season was relatively late-starting, with only one named storm occurring before August 20. Once the season got going, six named storms affected the Gulf of Mexico, including two hurricanes, Earl and Georges, that passed directly over the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Figure 2. Tracks of all named storms for the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Typical regional weather anomalies observed during June - August when La Niña conditions are present. The Caribbean tends to be cloudier and wetter than average, but there is typically little change to temperature and precipitations patterns over North America. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Oil spill updateLight east, southeast, or south winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model are not predicting eastward-moving ocean currents along the Florida Panhandle coast this week, and it is unlikely that surface oil will affect areas of Florida east of Fort Walton Beach. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a southeasterly wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoonThe tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll talk about all this nothingness on my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on Shaun Tanner's blog. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now--is this typical?2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Quoting WaterWitch11:i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

can someone tell me what the orange is?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related

According to another site dedicated to this the top of the cap is yellow and I think it appears red when a certain density of the blow out passes in front of it. As they explained it similar effect to an electric fire log.

Quoting WaterWitch11:i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

can someone tell me what the orange is?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nb2ifKX9oM&feature=related

Have you seen the latest live feed.....looks like the thing is clogged and nothing is going up the pipe now...

i will be the first to admit that i have become pretty "crazy" about the oil spill. i notice that i get flipped out about it very easily. i don't mean to. today i saw the webcam and it didn't look right. i had glowing orange in the middle and red streaks at the bottom. i have now convinced myself that the red streaks were a ribbon but the orange glowing in the middle of the plume i can't figure out and it's driving me crazy. i found this on youtube it's from last saturday and it's not as crazy looking as what i saw today around 5pm.

2879 Orcasystems: "BP Again Changes Oil Containment Timeline ... BP has changed its tune once again on the precise timing of when it believes it will be able to contain the oil gushing from its blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico. BP said on Wednesday it is dialing back a prediction by its chief operating officer that the leaking oil would be reduced to a "relative trickle" by next week. It now says it will take more time to reach that point....."

Looks like I wrote a relevant commentary ahead of time (and didn't bother to post earlier cuz the conversation had drifted far away by the time I finished)

2112 aspectre "BP...captured about 15,000 barrels...of oil Tuesday...close to...its processing limit......the shuttle tanker in the Gulf of Mexico...can process about 15,000 barrels of oil per day.BP...to bring in new ships and equipment to bring that capacity up to 28,000 barrels...per day."2114 Chicklet "so how many millions of gallons per day has it been leaking?"

I think anybody who has been following what I've written on the topic will agree that I've been consistently conservative -- using official figures, giving the benefit of the doubt to those in charge of capping&cleanup, etc -- while expressing my doubts only subtly, ala posting the Ixtoc spill-rate along with the various official rates. I will continue to be conservative in my writings. So first, a bit more from the same article.

Asked...whether the recovery effort...was collecting more oil than was leaking, [CoastGuard Admiral] Allen said "I certainly hope so" but added "I'm not going to declare victory on anything until we have absolute numbers [for the oil flow rate]."

Well, the article tells me several things have a HIGH probability of being true:

1) The spill rate was appreciably over 16,666barrels per day after the BlowOutPreventer's pipe was cut. BritishPetroleum's ChiefExecutiveOfficer had set a capture goal of 90%. 15,000barrels is 90% of 16,666barrels. Ordering in new equipment to handle more than 15,000barrels per day shows that BP accepts that the flow rate is appreciably more than 16,666barrels per day. ie The absolute minimum amount still spilling into the Gulf is appreciably more than 1666barrels per day.

2) The spill rate had been appreciably more than 13,888barrels per day before recovery began. Cutting the pipe near the BoP increased the flow rate by 20% or 1/5th. So the new flow rate became 6/5ths times the old flow rate. Conversely, the old flow rate is 5/6ths of the new flow rate. The new flow rate is appreciably more than than 16,666 barrels per day, so the old flow rate had been appreciably more than 5/6ths of 16,666barrels per day.

3) Assuming that BP is "coming loaded for bear" after having had to admit that the on-site containment&recovery ship is too small and being forced to hire a new one with larger recovery capacity, my (deliberately conservative) new estimates are: The probable minimum presentday flow rate is between 18,666to21,500barrels per day.Before the riser was cut, the probable minimum spill rate had been between 15,555to17,966barrels per day. The flow rate minus what is being captured, ie the probable minimum presentday spill rate is between 3,666to6,500barrels per day.Those are the minimums because I can't be sure that BP had intended to be "coming loaded for bear" when they hired the new 28,000barrels per day containment&recovery ship.

4) USGS admin obviously also lowballed their official estimate by averaging the surface survey team's 12,000to19,000barrels per day with the plume velocity team's 12,000to25,000barrels per day into just the lowest estimate... which is why I had earlier chosen to post both survey results rather than endorse the obviously wrong official "average". ie Like the Bureau of Land Management and the Bureau of Minerals Management, USGS is apparently being run by "revolving*door" career bureaucrats who put serving business interests FAR above serving the public.

* "revolving door" refers to shifting between private sector jobs in an industry to public sector jobs overseeing that industy, and vice versa. Repeat as often as necessary to bump up ones pay.