Biking to the Apocalypse: How Far Off are Oil Forecasts?

Steven Colbert did a riff last night on America's rolling shortage of ammunition — observing that ammo scarcity was being caused by hoarding gun owners who feared ammo scarcity — and proposing that the new U.S. currency be lead-based.

Good yucks.

But even a good supply of bullets won't be much help if we don't get serious about world (ahem, U.S.) energy consumption. It takes oil to maintain control over other nation's oil supplies.

Via Jim Thill, who used to write about this top a lot, the Guardian reports that a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency is underestimating the world oil supply.

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency [IEA] who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The
senior official claims the US has played an influential role in
encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing
oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

Okay, a lefty British paper quotes anonymous whistleblower saying U.S. is plotting to suppress the truth.

But look at the production forecast the IEA has just released.

The dark blue is crude oil from currently producing fields. The precipitous decline of those fields is, um, past.

Now it's true that a field not yet developed becomes a currently producing field at some point, so the light blue becomes dark blue the moment it's tapped.

But before Obama could finish a second term, the world supply will be moving from "fields that cost more to produce" to "fields that will cost even more, if we can find them" just to keep production levels flat.

And you know what China and the rest of the developing world thinks about that.

Above the flat line, we're looking at "even more expensive and environmentally harmful," "soybeans and french fry oil," and liquid natural gas, with that soothing green upward slope.

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Biking to the Apocalypse: How Far Off are Oil Forecasts?

Steven Colbert did a riff last night on America's rolling shortage of ammunition — observing that ammo scarcity was being caused by hoarding gun owners who feared ammo scarcity — and proposing that the new U.S. currency be lead-based.

Good yucks.

But even a good supply of bullets won't be much help if we don't get serious about world (ahem, U.S.) energy consumption. It takes oil to maintain control over other nation's oil supplies.

Via Jim Thill, who used to write about this top a lot, the Guardian reports that a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency is underestimating the world oil supply.

The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency [IEA] who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The
senior official claims the US has played an influential role in
encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing
oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

Okay, a lefty British paper quotes anonymous whistleblower saying U.S. is plotting to suppress the truth.

But look at the production forecast the IEA has just released.

The dark blue is crude oil from currently producing fields. The precipitous decline of those fields is, um, past.

Now it's true that a field not yet developed becomes a currently producing field at some point, so the light blue becomes dark blue the moment it's tapped.

But before Obama could finish a second term, the world supply will be moving from "fields that cost more to produce" to "fields that will cost even more, if we can find them" just to keep production levels flat.

And you know what China and the rest of the developing world thinks about that.

Above the flat line, we're looking at "even more expensive and environmentally harmful," "soybeans and french fry oil," and liquid natural gas, with that soothing green upward slope.