Trump's firing of Comey is such an obvious blunder that it makes me wonder if he did it in desperation. I suspect there is info floating about that is prompting even mealworms such as Chaffetz to create distance.

Rather than a case of vertebragenesis, this may be just a squirming flight deep into the offal.

It does, and the more that it seems like that, the more vulnerable he becomes. You don't fire people investigating you unless you are worried about what they are going to uncover. Even if Trump didn't collude with the Russians, he is acting like he did.

At some point, everyone is going to just want to get the hell away from him to save their own hides. Couple a friendly conversation with Trump with one of his suspicious actions, and you are going to find yourself in the hot seat. Then, once in the hot seat, if you don't follow Trump's marching orders, his administration might start looking for ways to discredit you.

I've held the theory for about two months now that every Republican is doing their own calculus about what actions cause the least blowback for them and are triangulating carefully to figure out how to maintain a career after this.

The calculation will be slightly different for each member of Congress, and you can predict what they'll do by looking at their district. For instance, Rep. Barbara Comstock (Va.) is one of the few Republicans who have been openly critical of the Comey firing; she is also almost alone among her GOP colleagues in calling for an independent investigation into the Russia scandal. Is that because she's personally some kind of bipartisan moderate? Hardly — she made her bones in politics as a knife-in-her-teeth opposition researcher, digging up dirt on the Clintons in the 1990s. But she represents a swing district in the affluent Virginia suburbs just outside Washington, D.C.; Hillary Clinton beat Trump in her district by 10 points. Which makes her acutely aware that defending Trump will threaten her re-election bid next year.

But right now, she's in a tiny minority. Meanwhile, the places where many conservatives get their information, like Fox News and conservative talk radio, are manning the barricades in Trump's defense. So everything your average Republican voter is hearing convinces them that the president is right and this is all nothing but a fake scandal drummed up by Democrats jealous of how great Trump is making America.

There may come a point where the cracks in Republican unity begin to grow wider. But it will only happen when elite Republicans see it in their own interest to jump ship.

I'm more optimistic than Waldman; I think the majority of Republicans recognize that this ends badly but it's much easier to be wrong together than right alone. Just ask literally everyone who voted for the Iraq War.

I'm willing to bet his plan was to be a talking head over at Fox before they imploded, look insightful and presidential in a space where he's safe from being yelled at, and then make a run at 2024 to be willing to settle into a cabinet-level position. I think more than anything, he wants to stay in the public eye while staying out of the public crosshairs.