“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

There is nothing going on this weekend. There is rarely a notable film that opens the first weekend of April since it's after Spring Break and three weeks before Golden Week, so the beginning of April generally isn't a good time for anything to do well. Drops are also a bit harsh this weekend, especially for younger skewing films.

>Vice is debuting this weekend in limited release and might sneak into the bottom of the top 10, but it would probably require one of the current top 10 films to drop 50%+ to make it.

This weekend is serving as the calm before the storm that's to come next weekend, when Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire opens. It was already very likely to achieve the biggest opening weekend of 2019 overall, but with the dead/weak market it'll be opening in, it could really make its impact felt in the record books.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:19 pm

braca

Hatchling

Joined: Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:07 amPosts: 15

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

Corpse do you have an estimate for boRhap too?Many thanks

Fri Apr 05, 2019 6:56 pm

fiery_cockatrice

Hatchling

Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:27 pmPosts: 14

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

Is it too early to speculate on Godzilla: King of the Monsters' box office performance in Japan? Right now it's only expected to make $45-$60 million for its domestic opening weekend.

Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:01 am

pookpooi

Speed Racer

Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 amPosts: 174

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

A little bit Broly update, ¥12.5 billion worldwide announced in Anime Japan convention, currently running in India and soon in China. I hope all numbers will be revealed when Japanese Blu-ray release on June 5, expecting ¥4 billion domestic and ¥13 billion worldwide.

Sat Apr 06, 2019 2:10 am

Saikyo no Senshi

Newbie

Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:06 amPosts: 5

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

Corpse, do you know how the Utena movie performed at the box office?

Sun Apr 07, 2019 3:20 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

Going on vacation tomorrow, so don't expect any Weekend Actuals or other updates until Thursday or Friday.

>braca: I'll include Bohemian Rhapsody's actual if it's available when I update. If it's not available, I'll provide an estimate.

>fiery_cockatrice: I don't imagine it'll see much of an increase over the 2014 Godzilla, if it manages to increase at all. A comparable performance as it is likely.

>Saikyo no Senshi: Since its distributor income (means of tracking before 2000) was below ¥1 billion, it'll be difficult to find a figure. I'll do a bit of research into it next week for you.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Sun Apr 07, 2019 7:36 pm

fiery_cockatrice

Hatchling

Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 8:27 pmPosts: 14

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

So you see King of the Monsters moving about 2.2 million tickets? Has the inclusion of Mothra, King Ghidorah, and Rodan or the promise of more action than last time not generated any significant interest? It seems like every giant monster film of the 2010s (except Shin Godzilla) has only seen mild success at best.

And enjoy your vacation!

Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:36 am

pookpooi

Speed Racer

Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 11:21 amPosts: 174

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

Children of the Sea was supposed to stay off the radar, but the fact that legendary composer Joe Hisaishi join the project and trailer release today seems like it'll fall into "scenery porn" category might make Weathering with You's road to awards harder than usual.

So lots more seats but no different. However, Friday is a work/school day I believe so the room for improvement was much smaller. In comparison it can still increase on the weekend.

Presales for Saturday will be in in 6 hours so we can compare to last year. Looking at a few Toho theatres, presales look very strong.

Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:56 am

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/06-07)

I'm back.

I'll post last weekend's actuals here shortly.

Instead of a Weekend Forecast this weekend, I'll be tracking Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire on an hourly (or regular) basis. Based on its Friday performance, the franchise remains as strong as ever, and this year's release, the twenty-third film in the series, is very likely to debut above ¥1 billion again and have a comparable start as the last three films.

Remember that last year's release was the only the third film, domestic or imported, to exceed 1 million admissions on opening weekend this decade, so that'll be the target this weekend.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:36 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Highest Pre-Sales (2015-)

In preparation for Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire's pre-sales this morning, here are the films with the highest pre-sales since 2015:

Note: Pre-sales aren't a truly reliable method of projecting a films' opening weekend, unless it's a comparison between films from the same franchise or a very similar genre. Below the films with the highest pre-sales above, I listed their opening weekend admissions (and multiplier from their pre-sales figure) so you can see how much it can vary. There are also a few films with noticeably lower pre-sales than those on the list above that ended up with higher opening weekend admissions, such as last year's Code Blue "only" selling 57,000 tickets in advance but ending up with an incredible 810,918 admissions over the weekend.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Note: Pre-sales aren't a truly reliable method of projecting a films' opening weekend, unless it's a comparison between films from the same franchise or a very similar genre. Below the films with the highest pre-sales above, I listed their opening weekend admissions (and multiplier from their pre-sales figure) so you can see how much it can vary. There are also a few films with noticeably lower pre-sales than those on the list above that ended up with higher opening weekend admissions, such as last year's Code Blue "only" selling 57,000 tickets in advance but ending up with an incredible 810,918 admissions over the weekend.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:49 pm

Corpse

Don't Dream It, Be It

Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pmPosts: 28517Location: The Graveyard

Re: Japan Box Office: Detective Conan 23 Debut Weekend

Very strong, unsurprisingly, though maybe around 10,000 less than "expected." I say "expected" because Toho Cinema Day (40% off tickets at Toho Cinemas every 14th of the month) landed on Saturday for last year's Detective Conan (Zero the Enforcer), which may have slightly boosted its pre-sales.

This year, April's Toho Cinema Day falls on this Sunday, so I'm not really considering the 6% decline in pre-sales to mean a guaranteed decrease quite yet since any Sat. decrease versus last year's film will probably be countered on Sun..

I'll be posting the hourly admissions updates like I do for every major opener beginning later today.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Huge, huge start -- the biggest start ever for the franchise. It could fall behind the last two films as the day progresses, but even if it would, it's going to have a very comparable day. And who knows, it could remain ahead and end up on top, possibly breaking 350,000.

This is a good sign that 1 million admissions over the weekend could be in play again, which would make it only the fourth film this decade, domestic or imported, to open above 1 million admissions.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Last edited by Corpse on Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Last edited by Corpse on Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

Last edited by Corpse on Sat Apr 13, 2019 4:30 am, edited 1 time in total.

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."

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