The power of 15000 horses

F1 analysis, especially on race weekends. My non-F1 blog can be found at http://creditfunch.blogspot.com/ as can archives of earlier posts (click on the Formula 1 link on the right hand side of the Credit Funch blog).

In either case I appear to have dropped Bahrain (oops - not that hosting the worst race of 2010 and its politics entitle it to much sympathy) and Hungary (at least as full time) and replaced them with Kyalami (my ignorance of other African tracks being the main reason) and the part time return of Turkey. Simply speaking, if new tracks prove themselves, they should replace another track from their category (ie Abu Dhabi should prove itself better than say Shanghai to survive another year, but Korea would most likely be dropped).

Assuming I've followed the second group's logic my 2013 calendar would be:

22 November 2010

There is naturally less information and speculation about reserve drivers, but for at least two teams it could be an interesting prospect, namely Mercedes (in case Schumacher retires/doesn't like Pirelli tyres) and Toro Rosso (whose drivers are rumoured to have 6 month contracts with performance targets to stay in the sport).

With this in mind, I thought I'd list the drivers in the frame:

Red Bull: Daniel Ricciardo (current reserve, did all the "young driver" tests for the team)McLaren: Gary Paffett, Oliver Turvey (Paffet, 29, has been in this role for several years)Ferrari: Jules Bianchi (highly rated and shares a manager with Felipe Massa)Mercedes: Nico Hulkenberg/Anthony Davidson (rumours that the German could find a job, if no seat is forthcoming, otherwise Davidson might resume the role he first held since the BAR days)Renault: Jerome D'Ambrosio (if he doesn't get a Virgin drive)Williams: presumably someone rich (or Dean Stoneman, winner of Formula 2 this year)Force India: Paul di Resta (if they don't give him a drive, perhaps Liuzzi if he's dropped)Sauber: Esteban Gutierrez (brings Carlos Slim's money with him, alongside race driver Sergio Perez)Toro Rosso: Daniel Ricciardo (presumably)Louts: Money McDollarVirgin: see Lotus (or Jerome D'Ambrosio)Hispania: see Virgin (or Christian Klien)

That leaves 9 unconfirmed seats, but only 4 in good cars. 2 of these look likely to go to Di Resta and Maldonado and another (Renault or Force India) to Sutil, leaving the other Renault or Force India seat between Petrov (money), Liuzzi (2011 contract, supposedly), Glock (best unsigned of the new team drivers), Chandhok (Indian) or Hulkenberg (best prospect amongst the group). Your guess, however, is as good as mine.

For the 5 remaining "new team" seats we have all the drivers listed above, the drivers currently in the seats, any number of GP2 graduates with financial backing and the potential for Hispania to pick a Spaniard.

10 November 2010

You may have heard about the fight for the drivers' title and I detail a short version of the permutations below, but that isn't the only thing up for grabs. The prize money in F1 is determined by constructors' championship position and there are some places up for grabs, some more so than others.

Drivers:Realistically, drivers only care about winning titles. Having a 4th, an 8th or a 14th on your CV doesn't matter much, compared to one place higher or lower. Therefore I will only analyse the title hunt: