Ali Ansari discusses Iranian election

Expert on Iran, Professor Ali Ansari from St Andrews University in Scotland, joins Lateline to discuss the upcoming Iranian elections.

Transcript

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LEIGH SALES, PRESENTER: And earlier I was joined by one of the world's foremost experts on Iran, professor Ali Ansari of St Andrews University in Scotland.

Professor Ansari, I've read that this race has stirred up Iranians as much as any since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Why is that so?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI, ST ANDREW'S UNIVERSITY: Well, I think there are a number of factors behind it but I think on this occasion there's a realisation among a large swather of Iranians that perhaps their vote will count. Over the last three elections there's been increasing tendency to manipulate the results or to restrict the way in which the election has been conducted. On this occasion it seems that the regime itself has wanted a high turnout and has therefore freed up a little bit of the political process. I think downturn in the economy has helped of course.

But now in the last two weeks you suddenly see this swelling of public participation predicated in the large part in the belief of course that their vote is going to count and there's a strong possibility that the incumbent is going to lose.

LEIGH SALES: We've been hearing about televised debate and street protests and so no. Does an election campaign in Iran look like an election campaign as we understand it in the west?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, there are some significant differences but I think one of the striking things of this current electoral cycle is how familiar it's become. In previous cycles you always get this legislative body, the Guardian Council, vetting the candidates very severely. In this case of course they vetted as well but it was more of a confirmation of the four main candidates that the public were going to - were interested in and they'd already set up their election HQs.

And I think this decision to have presidential debates is in pure imitation of the American system and I think they look, certainly some members of the establishment in Iran, looked with envious eyes over the United States last year and decided they ought to take on some of these processes. So what you've seen actually in Iran is the sort of a primary debate season in a sense with the candidates jockeying for position and then the official campaigning didn't really start until late May.

So it's been a very short official campaign season, but of course we've seen this, really, the interest generating slowly since January and in many cases in terms of the campaigning on the streets, the use of technology, videos, internet, SMS, so on and so forth. It's taking on characteristics that I think we would all be quite familiar with and in some cases they've been very, very advanced in their use of technology.

LEIGH SALES: What about the role of wives? Because of course they play a big part in US election campaigns if we're talking about imitating the US?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, I think that is also one significant difference on this occasion is of course that one candidate in particular, the former Prime Minister, Mir Hossein Mousavi, has been campaigning with his wife. It's drawn some criticism among his opponents, particularly obviously the hard line opponents, and President Ahmadinejad I think made a somewhat reckless attack on Mir Hossein Mousavi's wife in one of the presidential debates.

To my mind I think that was a serious mistake on his part. It will have offended many people, I think, in Iran. I don't think they would have seen as - you know, it's not really the done thing to do. And of course what it will have done most definitely is shored up the women's vote for the Mousavi campaign.

ALI MOORE: You said earlier that the regime wants a high voter turnout. Why is that?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, I think part of the mythology of the Islamic Revolution, part of the sort of underlying ideological legitimacy that they have is that they have popular acclaim and that they have popular support, and that there is a democratic element to the constitution, which clearly there is, but that's always been in contradiction to many of the sort of more autocratic elements. And I think what we've seen over the last four years is a consolidation of the autocratic elements of that regime, and in many ways they realise that the more people recognise this, the more they will just simply stay away from the polls in any election.

And this was contrary to the interests of the system as a whole. So they found themselves in something of a quandary. I mean, they wanted a high turn out because it's good for the system as a whole but they're also aware, and acutely aware - and I think increasingly so now - that a high turnout is actually to the detriment of the hard line autocrats within the system. That a high turnout will tend to favour the more moderate candidates in any election.

LEIGH SALES: So given that, I mean, how democratic is Iran really. Can the autocrats simply quash the election result if it doesn't deliver what they're hoping for?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, what's been quite striking on this occasion is that a lot of the candidates and their supporters have been very aware and vocally aware, it has to be said, of the propensity for the system to cheat, and for the hardliners to want to rig the vote. And a lot of criticism of this has emanated not just from the moderates or the reformists but even from some pragmatic conservatives and others who've really raised alarm bells at every possible avenue of the potential for cheating. So, Iranians themselves are aware of this, but I think measures are taking place to ensure that this is, at the very least, minimised.

LEIGH SALES: So is it possible that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad could lose tomorrow's election?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: I think it's very possible, yes, absolutely. I mean, I think they're very aware and rather quite scared of the fact that he lost the momentum. They thought - and let's be honest about it - six months ago or before the economic crisis set in, the world downturn, most people, including myself, basically assumed that he would be able cruise to victory on the back of very high oil prices and they wouldn't really need to fight a proper election.

What they've done is because of this economic downturn they've had to release some of the political valves and in a sense they've lost control of that process. So the potential for him not coming through, certainly, I think is extremely unlikely that he will win the first round. It's very likely that we'll go through to a run off, but there are even some people on the other side saying that Mousavi may win in the first round. I happen to think that's unlikely but nonetheless it will be quite a blow to Ahmadinejad if he can't win the first round, and I think it's unlikely.

LEIGH SALES: Mousavi, the main challenger, is campaigning partly on the notion that Ahmadinejad has made Iran an international pariah and embarrassed its people. So it seems that he's making a case for more active engagement in the world. Is that a message which resonates with the Iranian people?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: I think absolutely, I think a lot of Iranians have been quite distressed at the way in which he's behaved on the international stage. There are clearly those within Iran who quite admire the way he carries on, but again one of the interesting things of this election is that the focus many of us thought would be the economy, but actually foreign policy has also been the subject of debate in all three of the contenders opposing Ahmadinejad have all criticised his handling of international affairs. They don't necessarily disagree on fundamentals but they do disagree on approach and method.

LEIGH SALES: Tell us what you think a Mousavi presidency would look like if he were to win?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, I think you have to look beneath the surface. Mousavi is simply the candidate leading the charge so to speak in many ways, although the other two candidates are also quite interesting. I think what you have to see are the supporters of each particular candidate. And what you're seeing behind Mousavi and to a lesser extent the other two contenders against Ahmadinejad is whole groups of people who've been left out of government over the last four years, many of whom served either in the Rafsanjani administration or more particularly in the Khatami administration between 1997 and 2005 and they clearly have a more moderate view of the international system and really think that Iran should be integrated much more constructively within the international system.

That's not to say that they differ dramatically on some of the fundamental issues, say, for instance on the nuclear issue. But they do tend to argue that some sort of resolution of the crisis needs to be reached and Iran has to think creatively about ways in which it can reach consensus with the west on these issues. They are not so ideologically driven towards a sort of anti-Western stance. They do feel that certainly with the new Obama administration that there is a window of opportunity that they need to work on.

LEIGH SALES: But that wouldn't necessarily mean that we'd see a wholesale change in rhetoric, though, would it?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: No, I mean, I think also expectations in the west need to be also moderated and measured. Any new administration coming in Iran, of course, will take time to settle in, I think there will always be domestic difficulties, but I certainly think in just the same way as the Iranians are looking at the Obama administration, what you'll see in the initial sense is a change in tenure and tone, and then some fundamentals will move in.

LEIGH SALES: Would that constitute what Barack Obama described as Iran unclenching its fist? He said I think ahead of the election that if Iran unclenched its fist that the US would extend its hand. Would this constitute that.

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: I think definitely. I mean, I think you'll see an attempt by the Iranians to respond to the Obama initiative in way, in a more positive way, and not simply be rejectionist.

LEIGH SALES: What about domestically? If we had a different Government in Iran, how would Iran look internally, what changes would we see there?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, I think you'll definitely see a resurrection, so to speak, of the sort of the democratic tendencies in Iran. I think they'll want to restore some of the power of the Government as opposed to the office of the Supreme Leader and revolutionary organs of power. I think they'll want to rebalance the nature of the balancing forces within the country.

Most definitely there'll be more political freedoms, again measured, but certainly they'll be there with greater sort of latitudes both in the universities and for intellectuals and also I suspect social restrictions that have been quite heavy handed if erratic, but heavy-handed, certainly over the last four years, will begin to be decreased.

I mean, I think the main effort of any succeeding Iranian Government in any case, be it Ahmadinejad or anyone else, but I think the non-Ahmadinejad government would have a better opportunity, would be to deal with the economy, and to deal with the economy in a sensible manner. And a lot of that, of course, will require Iran to renegotiate its relations with the West.

LEIGH SALES: You spoke in passing of Iran's nuclear program. Will it continue regardless of who's in power?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: I think there's a broad consensus on Iran's rights to have peaceful nuclear technology and to enrich uranium. I think that most of them believe with some justification of course that their rights under the MPT guarantee that. But I think that all the three candidates running against Ahmadinejad recognise that Ahmadinejad's approach to these matters has been quite unhelpful, it's been very combative, very confrontational. It's not all helpful that he mentions, talks about Israel in such derogatory and confrontational manner, that he talks about the Holocaust and other things.

And a lot of them have been very critical of him for this. They've said, "You know, this is none of our business, why are you raising this? You know, we are living in a sensitive environment, these are important crucial matters of national interest and you've simply made matters worst. You've given our enemies the sticks they need to beat us, and this is not good politics, it's not good tactics or strategies."

So I think on certain issues I don't think we should expect dramatic changes. But I think you'll find more of a political will to resolve them to some matter or form, and suggestions have already been made for the establishment of a consortium, for instance, to enrich uranium... Also, you know, other arrangements with the west may be discussed. But I don't think anyone in the west should suddenly think that Iran is going to suddenly cave in to every demand that the West makes. I think there'll have to be a degree of give and take on both sides.

LEIGH SALES: How important is this election result to the broader region, to Middle East peace?

PROFESSOR ALI ANSARI: Well, I think the reason why it is enormously important is because you have a new administration in the White House. And I think for the first time if you do get a change in Iran, what you're seeing is the political will existing on both sides of this rather destructive divide which has existed over the last 30 years, and that for the first time in a generation we may have had, we may see an opportunity for some sort of detente to emerge, some sort of practical detente rather than just rhetorical.

Now of course this will have enormous ramifications for developments in the Middle East as a whole. We know, of course, that there are two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that remain unfinished. Afghanistan-Pakistan is getting perhaps more serious, and Iran that is an active participant shall we say in this sort of international and regional dynamics in politics, I think, will make an enormous difference. I mean, if the Iranians also have interests, clear interests in ensuring that Afghanistan, Pakistan don't disintegrate or that the Taliban come back in any force, and I think if can you find a way to collaborate with the Iranians in this respect it will be of enormous mutual benefit.

LEIGH SALES: Well, it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds over the next little while. Professor Ali Ansari, thank you very much for joining us.