THIS has been a year of huge change. The vote to leave the EU was one of those seismic events that happens maybe once or twice in a century.

Paul Nuttall could make Ukip the new voice of the working people and wipe out Labour

The changes that will flow from Brexit have barely even begun but within days the vote led to the departure of David Cameron, who just a year before had brought the Tories their first majority for 23 years.

Across the Atlantic, Donald Trump’s election caused a political earthquake.

But for all the magnitude of these events, it’s possible that the announcement on Monday of Ukip’s new leader could turn British politics on its head in ways that will make even that mad fortnight after the referendum look positively dull.

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The received wisdom about Ukip before the last election was that it posed its main threat to the Conservatives.

By lopping votes away from the Tories in a number of key seats, Ukip could let Ed Miliband (remember him?) in to Downing Street. And it’s true that it was, in part, because of David Cameron’s worry that the Tories would haemorrhage votes to Ukip that he promised a referendum in the 2015 manifesto.

But it’s a complete misunderstanding of Ukip’s potential vote to think that it’s only the Tories who are at risk.

Indeed, the real threat Ukip poses is to Labour. Nigel Farage changed British politics for ever. But he always came across as a natural Conservative member who had rehoused himself in Ukip. It was difficult to imagine him leading a party that might one day replace the Labour Party. But not Paul Nuttall.

Labour’s success has been built on a marriage between working class votes and Left-wing elites. For most of its life, that marriage was extremely successful.

And under Tony Blair Labour’s support widened even further. Labour has been at its most frail when its Left-wing elites forget that they are, in reality, the junior partner in the marriage – first in the 1980s when the Bennites ran riot and now under Jeremy Corbyn.

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Paul Nuttall’s leadership campaign was based on Ukip targeting the voters Labour has left behind

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For Jeremy Corbyn sympathisers ‘patriotism’ is a dirty word

For the Corbynite Left, patriotism is a dirty word. Remember Emily Thornberry’s tweet in the Rochester and Strood by-election of a house with the flag of St George (a by-election won, of course, by Ukip)? And while most natural Labour supporters are worried about mass immigration, for the Corbynites any such concern is racist.

Nothing better illustrates the parallel universe in which they live than the reaction to the death of Fidel Castro.

Most normal people can see that he was a monster who locked up and murdered his opponents and impoverished his country.

To Jeremy Corbyn, those are merely “flaws” – Castro was a hero because he was anti West. Sensible Labour MPs are deeply worried.

They can see the disaster that has befallen their party. Look at the latest poll, published yesterday. The Tories have a 16-point lead – a single point below the all-time record high for any party.

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Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro died last week

There are no alibis the Corbynites can cite for this cataclysmic performance. It is their failure alone.

One of the more thoughtful Labour MPs, Michael Dugher, tweeted after Mr Nuttall’s win that “Lab can beat Ukip every day of the week if we show we’re in touch with voters on issues that matter to them – jobs, immigration, defence, etc.”

In theory that may be true. But it’s so theoretical as to be irrelevant now. Under Corbyn, Labour is as out of touch on those issues as it’s possible to be.

On jobs, the party’s economic policy is so irrelevant that when the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell replied to last week’s Autumn Statement, Labour MPs were more interested in looking at their phone messages. That picture told a very important story.

On immigration, the Labour leader believes that any cap on numbers is racist. And on defence, not only does he want to ditch Trident, his – and his allies’ – sympathies lie with all the West’s key enemies.

Jeremy Corbyn in pictures

Tue, July 12, 2016

Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn takes part in a community meeting at the Guru Har Rai Gurdwara Sahib temple

Britain's opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn speaks at an anti-racism rally in London

With the Corbynites in charge Labour is in effect a pressure group rather than a party of government. But as September’s Labour leadership election showed, the Corbynites are impregnable.

That necessitates huge changes in British politics as Labour’s previous supporters are now homeless. This has not gone unnoticed by the Tories.

Lazy commentators have peddled the line that the Tories have tacked to the Right under Mrs May. The opposite has happened.

Her words as she stood outside Number 10 after her elevation to the leadership show that she wants to move the Conservatives towards becoming a more Continentalstyle Christian Democrat party. Look at yesterday’s proposals on corporate governance and executive pay.

This is a radical departure from the type of Conservatism we have been used to since Baroness Thatcher changed the party. But she’s not alone in spotting the gap left by Labour’s decision to commit electoral suicide.

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Paul Nuttall’s leadership campaign was based on Ukip targeting the voters Labour has left behind. A new analysis by Professor Matthew Goodwin shows the extent of the opportunity.

He looked at Labour seats with the lowest majorities where Ukip is in second or third place and where more than half voted Leave.

That highlights 20 seats with what he calls “the ideal mix of local conditions for Ukip”.