State Senate 1st District Race

Who Wins The Middle?

The fundamental question in the 1st Senate District race between Republican Tricia Stall and Democrat John Miller won't be answered until Election Day:

Who will win the support of the Republicans who voted against Stall in the GOP primary?

In the June election, Stall pulled in more than 4,700 votes to beat incumbent Sen. Marty Williams of Newport News. Her campaign can count on those votes again because of the loyalty she engenders from fellow anti-tax advocates.

Conversely, Miller is certain to get strong support from Democrats in the district who haven't had the opportunity to send one of their own to the state Senate since Williams won the seat in 1995. Miller has run a largely centrist campaign, in the hopes of attracting residents put off by Stall's strong alliance with the anti-tax wing of the GOP.

Williams pulled in 3,999 voters in June.

Will those voters go to Stall because they want the GOP to retain power? Or will they break across party lines to a more moderate candidate?

"That's the key," said Quentin Kidd, a Christopher Newport University political science professor. "Where are they going to go?"

The question is magnified this year because it's the last time that senators face voters before the 2011 redistricting. Whichever party controls the Senate will have the upper hand in redrawing the legislative boundaries that will guide future elections. Republicans now hold a 23-17 advantage, but Democrats are pushing hard around the state in an attempt to win enough seats to tilt that balance of power.

Polling data suggest that the race is close in the typically conservative 1st District, which includes Poquoson and parts of York County, Newport News and Hampton.

"If Stall's tied with under two weeks to go, then I don't think she's closed the deal," Kidd said.

But Stall operates with a tremendous amount of hustle and a strong network of loyal activists. She's perfectly comfortable being under-financed and underestimated, and she's known for her ability to get voters to the polls.

In 2002, voters in Hampton Roads were faced with a multimillion-dollar advertising blitz supporting a 1-cent increase in the local sales tax to pay for regional road projects. Stall helped coordinate the campaign against the tax increase, and voters rejected it nearly 2-1.

Miller is also drawing on his background on the campaign trail. In 2001, Miller lost to Del. G. Glenn Oder, R-Newport News. The race was widely hailed as a model of civil campaigning, but it caused some Democrats to wonder whether Miller's elbows were sharp enough. This time, Miller has run much more aggressively. He's been a constant presence at events across the Peninsula and has portrayed himself as a fiscally conservative consensus-builder.

Both candidates emphasize issues they hope will determine the outcome of the race. Stall repeatedly points to her anti-tax roots and her signature on the "no-tax" pledge. She said that by refusing in writing to raise state levies, she was committing to fiscal responsibility and restraint. In campaign advertisements and appearances, Stall said Miller's refusal to sign the pledge meant that he had a plan to raise taxes.

"Families are struggling under the tax burden," Stall said.

Miller said he had no desire to raise taxes, but he refused to rule anything out. He said "no-tax" pledges were irresponsible. He points to local Republican lawmakers, Dels. Oder and Phil Hamilton, who refuse to sign the pledge and to others - especially Sen. Thomas K. Norment Jr. - who deride the "no-tax" commitment as a gimmick.

Miller has focused on education, banking on his experience in the field: He's an education major and former director of an Internet technology program at CNU. He draws a contrast with Stall's signature on an Internet petition that advocates ending government involvement in education. Miller said that was tantamount to de-funding the public school system.

"Education is the most important thing we do," Miller said.

Stall adamantly denies that she wants to strip funding from public schools, noting that she's a product of Warwick High School and that her son was valedictorian there. Stall would like to see churches and corporations donate money to give parents more educational options. Stall wants to do away with state and federal mandates such as No Child Left Behind, so local parents and teachers have more control over education priorities.