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Thursday, July 18, 2013

From Way Downtown

Upon being asked why he shot so many three's, Antoine Walker responded: "Because there are no four's." (Sports Illustrated, August 2005, Adam Duerson.)
One of the most daring and challenging shots is the super long-range three pointer. Three's are already difficult at the NBA distance, and you don't get an extra point for shooting even further out, but there's something intimidating in seeing an opponent take a 30 foot jump shot and swish it. Using b-ref's play index, I tabulated all the super long shots from 2001 to 2013, including the playoffs, to determine who was truly the best at these absurd distances.

The 27 to 29 foot range is a more typical "from way downtown" range. Curry, not surprisingly, is king here, while another accurate sniper in Nash brings up second. Even though Curry is still a young guy, he has over 200 such attempts, so his range is definitely plus 27 feet. Villanueva is, however, surprising, as he's not known for high percentage shooting or deep range like JR Smith is. The list is populated either by precise snipers or guys known for bombing/chucking away. At the other end of the spectrum is Allen Iverson, who shot 16.3% on 245 attempts. This distance is definitely a problem for most shooters, as the average percentage over the 13 years was 29.4%.

Table 1: 27 to 29 foot shots, 2001-2013, >100 FGA

Player

FG

FGA

FG%

%Ast

Stephen Curry

87

208

41.8

52.9

Steve Nash

52

129

40.3

42.3

Charlie Villanueva

45

114

39.5

100.0

J.R. Smith

101

263

38.4

77.2

Mike Dunleavy

43

114

37.7

97.7

Brent Barry

47

125

37.6

85.1

Mike Miller

78

208

37.5

85.9

Ray Allen

105

287

36.6

79.0

Joe Johnson

129

353

36.5

72.1

Dirk Nowitzki

37

102

36.3

83.8

Jameer Nelson

38

107

35.5

63.2

Mike Bibby

114

326

35.0

91.2

Caron Butler

35

101

34.7

60.0

Eric Gordon

44

127

34.6

88.6

Vladimir Radmanovic

35

102

34.3

94.3

Brandon Jennings

44

129

34.1

56.8

Chris Paul

51

150

34.0

52.9

Deron Williams

36

106

34.0

47.2

Paul Pierce

70

208

33.7

82.9

Clifford Robinson

40

119

33.6

97.5

Chauncey Billups

124

370

33.5

54.0

Kyle Lowry

36

109

33.0

58.3

Rasheed Wallace

71

218

32.6

100.0

Aaron Brooks

37

114

32.5

73.0

Vince Carter

93

288

32.3

72.0

Tim Thomas

41

127

32.3

97.6

Jamal Crawford

82

255

32.2

67.1

Derek Fisher

54

168

32.1

79.6

Kyle Korver

55

172

32.0

90.9

Michael Redd

44

138

31.9

81.8

Antoine Walker

72

227

31.7

93.1

Peja Stojakovic

41

130

31.5

82.9

Rashard Lewis

40

127

31.5

80.0

Louis Williams

38

121

31.4

47.4

Gilbert Arenas

78

249

31.3

61.5

Ben Gordon

46

149

30.9

63.0

Jason Richardson

53

172

30.8

84.9

Al Harrington

38

124

30.6

100.0

Baron Davis

114

374

30.5

45.6

Mo Williams

52

172

30.2

69.2

Tracy McGrady

80

271

29.5

66.3

Rafer Alston

45

153

29.4

71.1

Stephen Jackson

55

187

29.4

74.5

Hedo Turkoglu

52

177

29.4

75.0

Antawn Jamison

35

120

29.2

100.0

LeBron James

64

220

29.1

40.6

Chris Duhon

43

148

29.1

72.1

Chucky Atkins

53

184

28.8

92.5

Kobe Bryant

168

585

28.7

69.6

Danny Granger

32

113

28.3

96.9

Nate Robinson

33

118

28.0

60.6

Quentin Richardson

47

169

27.8

89.4

Reggie Miller

30

109

27.5

83.3

Jason Williams

61

222

27.5

55.7

Dorell Wright

27

101

26.7

88.9

Metta World Peace

42

158

26.6

76.2

Andre Iguodala

30

114

26.3

53.3

Jason Terry

36

137

26.3

83.3

Stephon Marbury

41

157

26.1

39.0

Jerry Stackhouse

28

110

25.5

82.1

Kevin Durant

29

116

25.0

82.8

Lamar Odom

43

177

24.3

67.4

Lindsey Hunter

24

108

22.2

75.0

Monta Ellis

24

109

22.0

54.2

Jason Kidd

22

115

19.1

72.7

Allen Iverson

40

245

16.3

72.5

For shots 28 to 39 feet, certainly long enough to quality for deep three-point shooting but also excluding distances that are definitely "half-court desperation heave" length, Brent Barry appears to be the most accurate, although it's in limited attempts. (27 feet was excluded because of how popular it was; clearly it was still within the normal range of NBA shooting.) Mike Bibby, surprisingly, has taken a large sum of these shots while maintaining great efficiency. Some of the other names that are near the top of the leaderboard aren't surprising -- Mike Miller, Arenas, Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, and Stephen Curry. One notable guy, Antoine Walker, definitely takes a lot of deep three's but is (of course) not very accurate. Some other stars like James and Kobe like to heave long shots but have low percentages. Carmelo, for example, has taken 52 of these but only connected on 7.7%. But the award for worst shooting goes to former high school to pros point guard Telfair, who shot 30 of them and made zero.

Table 1: 28 to 39 foot shots, 2001-2013, >30 FGA

Player

FG

FGA

FG%

%Ast

Brent Barry

16

37

43.2

75.0

Mike Bibby

49

123

39.8

87.8

Jose Barea

13

33

39.4

69.2

Mike Miller

26

69

37.7

80.8

Gilbert Arenas

32

92

34.8

50.0

Joe Johnson

50

148

33.8

66.0

Nick Van Exel

10

31

32.3

40.0

Vince Carter

35

109

32.1

60.0

Marco Belinelli

12

38

31.6

75.0

Steve Nash

10

32

31.3

50.0

Ronald Murray

12

41

29.3

66.7

Louis Williams

16

55

29.1

37.5

Clifford Robinson

9

31

29.0

100.0

Dirk Nowitzki

10

35

28.6

70.0

Stephen Curry

13

46

28.3

53.8

Rasheed Wallace

11

39

28.2

90.9

Al Harrington

9

32

28.1

100.0

Kyle Korver

14

50

28.0

78.6

Lamar Odom

16

58

27.6

75.0

Jamal Crawford

33

120

27.5

57.6

Eric Gordon

11

40

27.5

100.0

Rafer Alston

11

40

27.5

100.0

Kyle Lowry

12

45

26.7

16.7

Aaron Brooks

13

49

26.5

76.9

Kevin Durant

9

34

26.5

77.8

DeShawn Stevenson

10

38

26.3

60.0

J.R. Smith

27

104

26.0

66.7

Nate Robinson

14

54

25.9

71.4

Chris Paul

15

58

25.9

60.0

Paul Pierce

16

62

25.8

81.3

Ben Gordon

9

35

25.7

55.6

Mike Dunleavy

9

35

25.7

88.9

Stephon Marbury

22

87

25.3

40.9

Tracy McGrady

23

92

25.0

65.2

Derek Fisher

14

56

25.0

57.1

Chucky Atkins

12

48

25.0

75.0

Jordan Crawford

10

40

25.0

50.0

Kevin Martin

9

36

25.0

77.8

Jeff McInnis

8

32

25.0

50.0

Rudy Gay

8

32

25.0

37.5

Steve Francis

12

49

24.5

16.7

Antoine Walker

17

73

23.3

94.1

Brandon Jennings

9

39

23.1

66.7

Monta Ellis

8

35

22.9

50.0

Hedo Turkoglu

12

53

22.6

58.3

Peja Stojakovic

12

53

22.6

75.0

LeBron James

25

111

22.5

24.0

Cuttino Mobley

8

36

22.2

75.0

Antawn Jamison

7

32

21.9

85.7

Chris Duhon

10

48

20.8

80.0

Stephen Jackson

12

58

20.7

58.3

Shane Battier

9

45

20.0

66.7

Tyronn Lue

8

40

20.0

50.0

Metta World Peace

7

35

20.0

71.4

Kobe Bryant

38

191

19.9

71.1

Ray Allen

14

71

19.7

78.6

Caron Butler

12

61

19.7

33.3

Bobby Jackson

7

36

19.4

14.3

Baron Davis

24

126

19.0

41.7

Chauncey Billups

16

84

19.0

43.8

Jerry Stackhouse

7

37

18.9

71.4

Jason Williams

14

78

17.9

42.9

Andre Iguodala

10

57

17.5

30.0

Jason Terry

10

59

16.9

70.0

Deron Williams

7

43

16.3

14.3

Michael Finley

5

31

16.1

60.0

Devin Harris

7

44

15.9

28.6

Jamaal Tinsley

5

32

15.6

100.0

Mo Williams

9

59

15.3

66.7

Ricky Davis

5

34

14.7

40.0

Earl Watson

5

35

14.3

20.0

Morris Peterson

5

35

14.3

60.0

Jason Kidd

10

72

13.9

70.0

Andre Miller

5

36

13.9

20.0

Jameer Nelson

5

37

13.5

80.0

Allen Iverson

9

67

13.4

66.7

Quentin Richardson

6

53

11.3

66.7

Jason Richardson

7

63

11.1

57.1

Raymond Felton

5

45

11.1

60.0

Carmelo Anthony

4

52

7.7

50.0

Eddie House

2

30

6.7

50.0

Sebastian Telfair

0

30

0.0

N/A

Table 3 is remarkable. Gilbert Arenas completely outclasses the competition. A three-point percentage of 47% is outstanding no matter the distance and on an all-time scale would be the best for a career; the fact that he's doing this from 30 to 39 feet with probably a few wild, Hail Mary shots is downright amazing. He's not just sniping from 30 or 31 feet, cheating the system: if you look at the 35 to 39 foot distances, no one made more than two shots, and those that did needed 15 to 25 attempts. The exception was Arenas, who made a startling 7 out of 12 shots from this super long distance. The three-point line is already 23 feet, 9 inches, and going out to the 35 to 39 foot range is like adding the free-throw distance to this remote location. Some other notorious long-range bombers are fairly high on the list, like Carter, Miller, and McGrady, but they are nowhere near Agent Zero's prowess. This is superhuman.

Table 3: 30 to 39 foot shots, 2001-2013, >20 FGA

Player

FG

FGA

FG%

%Ast

Gilbert Arenas

17

36

47.2

35.3

Vince Carter

12

38

31.6

41.7

Mike Bibby

8

28

28.6

37.5

Mike Miller

6

21

28.6

66.7

Aaron Brooks

5

20

25.0

40.0

Kyle Lowry

5

21

23.8

0.0

Dwyane Wade

5

22

22.7

40.0

Nate Robinson

5

22

22.7

60.0

Stephon Marbury

8

38

21.1

37.5

Earl Watson

4

20

20.0

25.0

Joe Johnson

8

40

20.0

37.5

Tracy McGrady

5

26

19.2

60.0

Jason Terry

6

33

18.2

50.0

LeBron James

12

67

17.9

8.3

Derek Fisher

4

23

17.4

0.0

Steve Francis

5

29

17.2

20.0

Kobe Bryant

12

70

17.1

58.3

Louis Williams

4

24

16.7

25.0

Lamar Odom

4

24

16.7

75.0

Jamal Crawford

8

55

14.5

50.0

Allen Iverson

3

22

13.6

0.0

Andre Miller

3

22

13.6

0.0

Andre Iguodala

4

30

13.3

50.0

Chauncey Billups

5

38

13.2

20.0

J.R. Smith

6

47

12.8

33.3

Tony Parker

3

25

12.0

0.0

Baron Davis

6

50

12.0

50.0

Caron Butler

4

37

10.8

25.0

Deron Williams

3

28

10.7

0.0

Jason Williams

3

29

10.3

33.3

Jason Kidd

5

51

9.8

40.0

Chris Paul

3

31

9.7

100.0

Ray Allen

3

32

9.4

100.0

Mo Williams

3

33

9.1

33.3

Paul Pierce

2

23

8.7

50.0

Morris Peterson

2

25

8.0

50.0

Jason Richardson

2

30

6.7

0.0

Jerry Stackhouse

1

20

5.0

100.0

Raymond Felton

1

22

4.5

100.0

Devin Harris

1

29

3.4

100.0

Carmelo Anthony

0

25

0.0

N/A

Mike James

0

21

0.0

N/A

Stephen Jackson

0

20

0.0

N/A

Andre Miller apparently cares little about his field-goal percentage and is the clear leader in hoisting up super-long shots (40 feet or more) and is tied with two others for the most made. In fact, since 2001, Andre Miller's three-point percentage including the playoffs has been 22.2%, but excluding the 40 foot shots it improves to 25.9%. There are a few familiar names here like Jamal Crawford, Kobe Bryant, JR Smith, but one guy who gets accused of protecting his field-goal percentage is LeBron, who's sullied his stats with 57 of these shots. Obviously, a lot of this is pure luck, as one or two lucky shots will completely change your percentage. The average percentage from this distance, by the way, was 2.9%. Another way to think about this is that the expected points per shot attempt is 0.088 points. Don't blame a close loss on refusing to take one half-court shot, but hey, a couple games here and there are affected by making these.

Table 4: 40 foot shots and longer, 2001-2013, >40 FGA

Player

FG

FGA

FG%

%Ast

Andre Miller

5

139

3.6

60.0

Jamal Crawford

3

93

3.2

0.0

Jason Kidd

5

86

5.8

20.0

Kobe Bryant

1

81

1.2

0.0

Baron Davis

4

76

5.3

75.0

Ronald Murray

0

70

0.0

N/A

Raymond Felton

4

68

5.9

75.0

J.R. Smith

0

68

0.0

N/A

Dwyane Wade

2

67

3.0

0.0

Jason Williams

2

66

3.0

50.0

Joe Johnson

2

65

3.1

0.0

Steve Blake

1

64

1.6

0.0

Andre Iguodala

3

63

4.8

0.0

Caron Butler

1

61

1.6

0.0

LeBron James

3

57

5.3

66.7

Ricky Davis

1

57

1.8

100.0

Chucky Atkins

1

54

1.9

0.0

Morris Peterson

2

53

3.8

0.0

Ray Allen

1

52

1.9

0.0

Steve Francis

1

52

1.9

0.0

Stephon Marbury

4

51

7.8

25.0

Mo Williams

2

51

3.9

50.0

Jason Terry

1

49

2.0

0.0

Anthony Carter

0

49

0.0

N/A

Michael Finley

2

48

4.2

0.0

Stephen Jackson

0

48

0.0

N/A

Derrick Rose

1

47

2.1

0.0

Carmelo Anthony

0

47

0.0

N/A

Tracy McGrady

0

47

0.0

N/A

Vince Carter

4

46

8.7

25.0

Devin Harris

1

46

2.2

0.0

Earl Watson

1

46

2.2

0.0

Manu Ginobili

2

45

4.4

0.0

Leandro Barbosa

2

42

4.8

0.0

Deron Williams

3

41

7.3

33.3

Darrell Armstrong

2

40

5.0

0.0

Paul Pierce

2

40

5.0

0.0

Nate Robinson

2

40

5.0

50.0

Three guys are tied for the lead in 40 foot shots, and oddly enough Shannon Brown with only 34 attempts is one of them. But what's impressive is that Van Excel and Tyreke Evans have 4 each with not more than 20 attempts. Given the crazy nature of these shots it's possible Tyreke won't make another one again, but he could take the crown of super-long shots. Some other long shot makers who showed up previously make the cut here again like Carter, Marbury, Walker, and Crawford. Arenas only made one out of 29 attempts, but there's nothing pathetic about a 39 foot range.

Table 5: 40 foot shots and longer, 2001-2013, >3 FG's made

Player

FG

FGA

FG%

%Ast

Shannon Brown

5

34

14.7

60.0

Jason Kidd

5

86

5.8

20.0

Andre Miller

5

139

3.6

60.0

Nick Van Exel

4

18

22.2

0.0

Tyreke Evans

4

20

20.0

75.0

Zach Randolph

4

36

11.1

0.0

Vince Carter

4

46

8.7

25.0

Stephon Marbury

4

51

7.8

25.0

Raymond Felton

4

68

5.9

75.0

Baron Davis

4

76

5.3

75.0

Antoine Walker

3

25

12.0

33.3

Marco Belinelli

3

25

12.0

33.3

Cuttino Mobley

3

30

10.0

66.7

Chris Duhon

3

35

8.6

0.0

Deron Williams

3

41

7.3

33.3

LeBron James

3

57

5.3

66.7

Andre Iguodala

3

63

4.8

0.0

Jamal Crawford

3

93

3.2

0.0

The longest shot in the b-ref database, by the way, is an 88 foot shot by Baron Davis from the 2001 season. So if any enterprising NBA player wants his name in an unofficial recordbook, here's one to shoot for if you don't care about your field-goal percentage. Now if only this were worth four points....