Weather Journal: Unseasonable Warmth Hits Region

ByEric Holthaus

Temperatures befitting late April will make for a foggy, unseasonably warm morning across Greater New York on Monday.

Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60s — about fifteen degrees warmer than normal, but still about 10 degrees short of all-time records. Warm, humid air will be drawn northwards into the region by an intense low pressure system over the Great Lakes and Canada. The warmth will manifest itself via patchy dense fog during the Monday morning rush, which should lift by midday. Monday morning pavement may also be damp from light overnight rains.

By the time the fog burns off, a sunny day will ensure skyrocketing temperatures for early December. Tuesday will be even warmer as parts of the tri-state push into the mid-60s.

The warm-up will portend a pattern shift across the tri-state that will bring, ironically, better chances of snow and lingering cold weather in about a week.

That pattern change starts mid-week when a strong cold front will move through the region, bringing snow to the Adirondacks and dropping temperatures by about 30 degrees in the tri-state. From there on, the outlook gets a bit murky, but long-range weather models increasingly favor a series of coastal low pressure systems for the coming weekend that could stretch into mid-month. It’s still well too early to be sure, but at least one of these coastal storms may bear snow chances for Greater New York, including New York City.

Inquiry intensifies over NWS review of Sandy warnings
In Monday’s print edition of the Washington Post, I co-wrote an article with the Post’s Jason Samenow on the growing controversy surrounding the National Weather Service’s decision to cancel (and then reconstitute) a committee tasked with examining whether the non-traditional communication of Sandy’s threat adversely affected emergency management actions, among other concerns.

Despite being well-forecast days in advance, standard hurricane warnings were never issued for Greater New York due to a meteorological technicality.

Among critics’ biggest concerns have been NWS’s refusal to allow non-governmental voices a seat on the review committee. At least one meteorologist who has been following the story closely, believes the situation has reached “crisis” proportions for the weather forecasting agency known across government for their high customer ratings and exceptional forecast accuracy.

Meteorologist Nate Johnson, who serves on the American Meteorological Society’s Board on Societal Impacts, doubted whether a government-only review would be as effective as one that included outside experts. “I don’t consider NOAA to be truly independent in this case. It’s like a parent running an investigation on their child.”

“Per guidance from our attorneys, NOAA must comply with FACA [the Federal Advisory Committee Act], leaving us to conduct a Sandy assessment using only federal team members. The assessment team will conduct interviews and collect information from a broad range of external parties, in compliance with FACA.

By the start of next hurricane season on June 1, NOAA will have time to address non-federal participation in service assessments, as well as the recommendation from the Academy of Science that such surveys should be conducted by an independent external group, in a more comprehensive and orderly fashion.”

Meteorologist Eric Holthaus contributes daily weather reports and analysis on Metropolis. For the latest on conditions in New York and elsewhere, follow his updates (@WSJweather) on Twitter.

Copyright 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of
this material are governed by our
Subscriber Agreement
and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones
Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit