Friday, December 2, 2011

I
recently posted an overview of freedom in Egypt, sourced from Freedom House, an
American think-tank that evaluates freedom around the world. In this
posting, I'll take a brief look at the concept of freedom in Syria and a
history of how freedom came under attack after the nation's independence.

Let's
open by looking at the degree of freedom in Syria measured using the concepts
of accountability and public voice, civil liberties, rule of law and
anticorruption and transparency when compared to all 39 nations in the Countries at the Crossroads study:

Each
of the four facets of freedom are scored out of seven with a perfect total
score of 28. Notice that Syria is ranked third worst for overall freedom
among the nations in the study after Eritrea and Libya. Here is a graph comparing freedom among the six
MENA (Middle East and North Africa) nations in the study, once again, scored
out of 28:

Here's
a graph breaking down each of the four facets of freedom into subsections, once
again, with a perfect score of seven for each subsection:

Now,
let's look at the recent history of Syria with a bit of background information
on the country, its political system and freedoms (or lack of) that are granted
to its citizens.

Syria
is a semiarid nation with a population of 22,517,000 (in 2010) comprised of
Arabs (90 percent) and a mixture of Kurds and Armenians. Syria has a very
young population; the median age is only 21.9 years, nearly 15 years younger
than the median age in the United States. In part, this may explain why
the limited photos and videos of the demonstrations that we do see, seem to be
mainly young adults that are dissatisfied with the status quo, as was the case
in Egypt. Here is a graph showing the dramatic drop in
Syria's fertility rate since the late 1960's:

Much
of the nation is composed of non-arable land with under 30 percent used for
farming. Syria's economy relies on the export of agricultural goods,
minerals and crude oil. Its other industries include car assembly, mining
of phosphates and oil seed crushing. Iraq is Syria's largest export
market with Germany and Italy comprising nearly 18 percent of Syria's export
market. Syria actually weathered the Great Recession quite well with
economic of 6 percent in 2009 and 4.5 percent in 2008. Here is a graph from Index Mundi showing the
changes in Syria's Purchasing Power Parity (measured using the value at prices
prevailing in the United States to level the playing field) GDP since 1999:

Syria's
external debt is quite small at only $7.636 billion, a rather paltry 27.8
percent of GDP. Here's a graph showing just how low Syria's public
debt-to-GDP ratio is and how it has actually dropped when compared to its level
in 2005, in complete contrast to what is happening among developed nations:

The
majority of Syrians are Muslim with 74 percent being Sunni and 13 percent being
Shia, Alawite (the minority ruling class) and Ismaili. As well,
Christians make up about 10 percent of the population.

Here
is an interesting graph showing how much (as a percentage of GDP) Syria spends
on its military, noting how military spending peaked at nearly 10 percent of
GDP in the early 1990s:

Here's a graph from the Economist showing how much
the United States and other leading world nations spend on their military for comparison:

Now for some historical background. The
Syrian Arab Republic was established at the end of World War I and achieved
full independence from France in 1946. A coup in 1963 by the Baath Party
resulted in the establishment of a 48 year long State of Emergency. The
country has been ruled by its Alawite minority since that time and by the Assad
dynasty since 1970. The state of emergency has allowed Hafez al-Assad and
his handpicked successor and son, Bashar, to maintain strict authoritarian
control of all sectors of political and social life in Syria. All forms
of dissent were crushed and any citizen that is suspected of being a security
threat can be arbitrarily arrested and detained. This severe method of
repression reached its zenith in 1982 when the government cracked down on the
uprising by the Muslim Brotherhood, resulting in the deaths of up to 20,000
insurgents and civilians. As well, the fall of the Baath Party in Iraq
gave hope to Syrians that their own Baath Party might suffer a similar fate. Syria's
Kurds pushed for greater results and demanded recognition; this ended with the
killing of at least 30 people in March 2004. Syria's never-ending state
of emergency also restricts freedom of movement, choice of residence and
freedom of artistic and written expression. In the early months of 2011
when uprisings in both Egypt and Tunisia overthrew decades of dictatorships, it
appeared that Syria might be next on the list, however, the heavy hand of the
Baathists crushed dissent. Anti-government protests broke out in March
when security personnel arrested and tortured 15 schoolboys for scrawling
anti-government graffiti on a public wall. Security forces responded with
force, killing at least four protestors. In April, President al-Assad
lifted the decades-old state of emergency and promised to enforce the people's
right to peaceful protest. Unfortunately for protestors, nothing really
changed and the government continued to use heavy-handed military repression to
crush protests, killing thousands and detaining and torturing thousands more.

To
keep this posting to a reasonable length, I'm going to take a brief look at
only two of the four facets of freedom as noted above. First, let's look
at accountability and public voice. Syria is officially a parliamentary republic with
the regime orchestrating presidential referendums and parliamentary elections. The
Baath Party nominates the president who is then approved by a popular
referendum which is generally won because the presidential candidate stands
unopposed (Bashar's last referendum in 2007 saw him garner 97 percent of the
vote). The regime also selects the members that sit in the People's
Council with two-thirds of the seats being reserved for the National
Progressive Front (NPF) a coalition of the Baath Party and its allies. The
NPF members are the only legal political parties in Syria although other allies
are permitted to run as independents once vetted by the NPF. Many of
these candidates have close ties to the al-Assad regime. The People's
Council has a rubber stamp capability only, it has only the power to approve
laws proposed by the government and has never proposed or defeated a draft law.
The country's only opposition is the National Democratic Coalition, a
collection of five secular political parties that is officially illegal and is
forced to operate underground. The Coalition boycotted the 2007 election.

Freedom
of expression in Syria is severely restricted with the Baath Party outlawing
all independent media back in 1963 and with the government owning virtually all
of the country's television and radio stations. That ban was replaced in
2001 with a Decree that allows strictly controlled "independent"
media; unfortunately for journalists et al, they can be imprisoned for various
contraventions to the best interests of the state. Offending journalists
can be harassed, arrested, censored, detained, tortured or exiled. Syria's
heavy hand extends to the internet as well; laws passed in 2005 state that
editors of online content (i.e. bloggers) must be Syrian citizens and residents
who are a minimum of 25 years of age. Violators can be imprisoned. A
19 year old blogger was arrested in 2009, convicted in 2011 and sentenced to
five years in jail. Another blogger was arrested in 2007, tried in 2009
and sentenced to three years in prison for "undermining national
morale". He was granted a presidential pardon in 2010.

Now
let's look at Syria's civil liberties. The invocation of the state of emergency has allowed
security forces to detain and torture thousands of citizens and may account for
the disappearance of 17,000 people since the late 1970s despite the fact that
the Syrian constitution prohibits the use of torture. Amnesty
International has documented cases of torture including electric shock,
burning, forced insertion of objects into the rectum, whipping and beating. Jails
are severely overcrowded and food deprivation is common. Visitation is
often granted to prisoners based on their outside connections to the regime. While
the constitution prohibits arbitrary arrest and detention without trial, the
powers granted by the state of emergency grant security services the right to
arrest anyone suspected of being a political threat, even if there is limited
evidence.

Syrian
women gained the right to vote in 1949, one of the first nations to grant
universal suffrage to its citizens in the Middle East. Despite that,
Syrian women that marry non-Syrians are not allowed to pass their citizenship
to their offspring. As well, honour killings remain a serious issue in
Syria with an estimated 57 honour killings in 2009.

Discrimination
against Syria's Kurdish minority is widespread with nearly 300,000 Syrian Kurds
being denied citizenship. As a result, they do not have full rights to
property ownership and are prevented from registering births and marriages. This
means that Kurds are classified as "denationalized people". Bans are
also in place that prevent the Kurds from publishing in their own language or
listening to their own music.

The
government strongly promotes moderate Islamism. Historically, Syria's
government has played a "hands off" role in the religious aspect of
Syrian life. It repressed Islamic movements in an attempt to prevent a
loss of power, for example, by outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood, the heir
apparent in Egypt's most recent elections.

To
close, I'd like to take a brief look at the issue of youth unemployment in
Syria, an issue that is complicated by the country's burgeoning population of
young adults. Here is a graph showing how youth unemployment
varies with educational level and how unemployment changes in the years after
graduation:

It
takes between three and five years before the unemployment rate for secondary
and intermediate institute graduates fall below 30 percent. Government
jobs absorb about 30 to 40 percent of Syria's 250,000 yearly university
graduates with a rather moribund private sector very slowly absorbing the
remainder. I realize that the data on this graph showing Syrian
unemployment rates by age group is rather old (2002 data), however, it gives
further evidence of the issues that are facing both the current dictatorship
and any future democratically elected leadership:

As
was the case in Egypt and its high youth unemployment rate, it appears that the
apparent hopelessness for young, unemployed and highly educated Syrians may be
at least partially responsible for the unrest in the country. The lack of
both civil and political freedoms as I've outlined in this posting certainly explains the remainder of why
Syrians are willing to take on their own military in a desperately bitter battle for
freedom.

Great read - Regarding your 'About Me' text, isn't 'social liberal' and 'fiscal conservative' fighting each other? All the social programs are increasing costs. What percentage of our government should be social programs?

Thanks for putting this information out there. Someone linked this in the comments on NYT.

John-Y, I think a social liberal is generally one who thinks the government and society should not be concerned with enforcing morality. For example, many Libertarians would self-identify as social liberals and many more who do not would be identified as such by me.

A great read ... Really enjoyed this detailed and very articulate summary of the Syrian polical situation. This explains why the rest of the world is so divided and helpless about the current situation ... I would love to read your insights on viable solutions to stop the atrocities against civilians

where is the analysis of other Persian gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain... you are not saying they have democracy in their countries. or maybe you don't count them as dependent countries!

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About Me

I have been an avid follower of the world's political and economic scene since the great gold rush of 1979 - 1980 when it seemed that the world's economic system was on the verge of collapse. I am most concerned about the mounting level of government debt and the lack of political will to solve the problem. Actions need to be taken sooner rather than later when demographic issues will make solutions far more difficult. As a geoscientist, I am also concerned about the world's energy future; as we reach peak cheap oil, we need to find viable long-term solutions to what will ultimately become a supply-demand imbalance.