Mike Gallagher

The Step-back 3

Top 10 Deadline Sell High Guys

Believe it or not, we’re only one week away from the NBA trade deadline. It’s been quiet on most fronts compared to seasons in recent memory, but we all know that there will be a plentiful amount of value changing hands from player to player before February 21 at 3:00 p.m. EST. Today we’re going to continue our coverage and discuss players that may be viewed as sell-high assets based on some rumblings about the approaching deadline.

While assessing a player’s value on rumors and speculation can be dangerous territory, it’s vital to stay abreast of the threat of what could ultimately lead to one of your must-start guys moving to a secondary role of your fantasy roster. It’s really all about risk management since beat writers may just be hitting their monthly quotas.

If the rumors are persistent about a player that tends to be a product of his system, then obviously owners should see whether someone else might be willing to gamble. Secondly, when players are on teams that have as much depth as a kiddy pool, their values will undoubtedly take a hit as they learn to mesh with teammates owning higher usage rates and more presence on both ends of the floor.

There are players that fit one or both of those descriptions. Before we get into some specifics, allow me to just remind some of you that “selling high” can have a lot of inherent attributes. Selling is all about the perception of the other party. One owner might think the world of a guy and another owner knows it’s clear as day why you’re trying to ship a player. One guideline I always have when it comes to a player you want to trade is to target owners and not specific NBA players. If your desire is to trade away a rebounding power forward, the fantasy team that needs that player the most should trump how you really think that Bradley Beal is going to break out.

As stated above, it’s all about risk management. Even though there’s a strong possibility that someone like Josh Smith may be traded, it isn’t a guarantee. Since fantasy has a lot to do with calculations, how about we try to look at this idea in a simple multi-variable equation?

As you can see, the largest variable factors that should be incorporated into the evaluation are the chances a trade goes down and the potential impact. If a player is highly likely to be traded and that impact could cripple his value, then he is obviously a prime candidate to try and dump on an unsuspecting owner. Conversely, if a player is unlikely to be dealt and his role might not change much, then who cares?

Let’s take a look at some guys that will have some larger risks than others:

1. Josh Smith- What a way to end his unofficial first half on Wednesday, right? J-Smoove shot 13-of-20 from the field for 30 points with 10 boards, five assists, two blocks, two threes and no turnovers in just 30 minutes. On the downside, he shot 2-of-7 from the line, which has been a real bugaboo with a season free throw percentage of 50.0 percent.

Smith wants a max deal and he’s probably the biggest name in the NBA that is rumored to be on the trade block. Despite his worst field goal shooting since his rookie year, Smith has tried to be a one-man wrecking crew for the Hawks. He doesn’t really do much without the ball and only has 60 percent of his field goals via an assist – his lowest since his rookie season. His shot selection has been terrible too with he and Rudy Gay as the only two players in the NBA to shoot below 30 percent from 16-23 feet while taking at least 3.6 attempts from that range per game. Mid-Range Shawty? I think not.

Those stats certainly are not going to translate to teams that have solid passing point guards. There’s no doubt that Smith’s value is the most volatile, but the problem is his owners would have to find a patsy that is unaware of his potential demise. A trade for a guy with fourth-round value seems like a good way to limit your risk for a big-name guy and coming off a nice Wednesday.

2. Andrea Bargnani- He’s certainly not a sell-high guy right now. In his four games since returning from an elbow issue, Bargnani averaged just 8.3 points with 1.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 blocks and 0.0 triples in only 20.8 minutes. Although, the Raptors could go into showcase mode against the Wizards on Tuesday.

3. J.J. Redick- He’s been nothing short of incredible to this point. On the year, he’s hit 2.4 triples per game and still managed 46 percent from the field thanks largely to converting 76 percent of his attempts at the rim. Those numbers are rare and Kyle Korver, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin and Redick are the only four in the NBA to average at least 2.0 triples while shooting at least 45 percent from the field. He’s also adding a career-high 4.4 dimes per game to go with his 88.7 percent from the line.

Unfortunately, there’s absolutely no way he will be able to sustain most of those numbers on any other team. He’ll likely just be a spot-up shooter, so the shots at the rim will go down and consequently drop his field goal percentage. His assists will also take a sizeable hit. Despite Orlando refuting that Redick is going to be traded, their team doesn’t really have a lot to build around and some contender may be willing to part ways with a prospect to get a guy with arguably the prettiest jumper in the NBA.

Redick isn’t as likely to be traded as some of the other guys, but the magnitude of impact could really cripple him.

Believe it or not, we’re only one week away from the NBA trade deadline. It’s been quiet on most fronts compared to seasons in recent memory, but we all know that there will be a plentiful amount of value changing hands from player to player before February 21 at 3:00 p.m. EST. Today we’re going to continue our coverage and discuss players that may be viewed as sell-high assets based on some rumblings about the approaching deadline.

While assessing a player’s value on rumors and speculation can be dangerous territory, it’s vital to stay abreast of the threat of what could ultimately lead to one of your must-start guys moving to a secondary role of your fantasy roster. It’s really all about risk management since beat writers may just be hitting their monthly quotas.

If the rumors are persistent about a player that tends to be a product of his system, then obviously owners should see whether someone else might be willing to gamble. Secondly, when players are on teams that have as much depth as a kiddy pool, their values will undoubtedly take a hit as they learn to mesh with teammates owning higher usage rates and more presence on both ends of the floor.

There are players that fit one or both of those descriptions. Before we get into some specifics, allow me to just remind some of you that “selling high” can have a lot of inherent attributes. Selling is all about the perception of the other party. One owner might think the world of a guy and another owner knows it’s clear as day why you’re trying to ship a player. One guideline I always have when it comes to a player you want to trade is to target owners and not specific NBA players. If your desire is to trade away a rebounding power forward, the fantasy team that needs that player the most should trump how you really think that Bradley Beal is going to break out.

As stated above, it’s all about risk management. Even though there’s a strong possibility that someone like Josh Smith may be traded, it isn’t a guarantee. Since fantasy has a lot to do with calculations, how about we try to look at this idea in a simple multi-variable equation?

As you can see, the largest variable factors that should be incorporated into the evaluation are the chances a trade goes down and the potential impact. If a player is highly likely to be traded and that impact could cripple his value, then he is obviously a prime candidate to try and dump on an unsuspecting owner. Conversely, if a player is unlikely to be dealt and his role might not change much, then who cares?

Let’s take a look at some guys that will have some larger risks than others:

1. Josh Smith- What a way to end his unofficial first half on Wednesday, right? J-Smoove shot 13-of-20 from the field for 30 points with 10 boards, five assists, two blocks, two threes and no turnovers in just 30 minutes. On the downside, he shot 2-of-7 from the line, which has been a real bugaboo with a season free throw percentage of 50.0 percent.

Smith wants a max deal and he’s probably the biggest name in the NBA that is rumored to be on the trade block. Despite his worst field goal shooting since his rookie year, Smith has tried to be a one-man wrecking crew for the Hawks. He doesn’t really do much without the ball and only has 60 percent of his field goals via an assist – his lowest since his rookie season. His shot selection has been terrible too with he and Rudy Gay as the only two players in the NBA to shoot below 30 percent from 16-23 feet while taking at least 3.6 attempts from that range per game. Mid-Range Shawty? I think not.

Those stats certainly are not going to translate to teams that have solid passing point guards. There’s no doubt that Smith’s value is the most volatile, but the problem is his owners would have to find a patsy that is unaware of his potential demise. A trade for a guy with fourth-round value seems like a good way to limit your risk for a big-name guy and coming off a nice Wednesday.

2. Andrea Bargnani- He’s certainly not a sell-high guy right now. In his four games since returning from an elbow issue, Bargnani averaged just 8.3 points with 1.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 blocks and 0.0 triples in only 20.8 minutes. Although, the Raptors could go into showcase mode against the Wizards on Tuesday.

3. J.J. Redick- He’s been nothing short of incredible to this point. On the year, he’s hit 2.4 triples per game and still managed 46 percent from the field thanks largely to converting 76 percent of his attempts at the rim. Those numbers are rare and Kyle Korver, Kevin Durant, Kevin Martin and Redick are the only four in the NBA to average at least 2.0 triples while shooting at least 45 percent from the field. He’s also adding a career-high 4.4 dimes per game to go with his 88.7 percent from the line.

Unfortunately, there’s absolutely no way he will be able to sustain most of those numbers on any other team. He’ll likely just be a spot-up shooter, so the shots at the rim will go down and consequently drop his field goal percentage. His assists will also take a sizeable hit. Despite Orlando refuting that Redick is going to be traded, their team doesn’t really have a lot to build around and some contender may be willing to part ways with a prospect to get a guy with arguably the prettiest jumper in the NBA.

Redick isn’t as likely to be traded as some of the other guys, but the magnitude of impact could really cripple him.

4. Byron Mullens- Lord Byron has been on a tear in his four starts. He shot 47.2 percent from the field and averaged 20.0 points, 11.5 boards and 2.5 treys in 38.8 minutes over that stretch. Charlotte has the worst frontcourt in the league and it isn’t even close. Against opposing frontcourts, they allow the most points, blocks, assists and 3-pointers while giving up the highest field goal percent and efficiency rating this year. Unreal.

As much as they’re not really in a position to care about improving and may want to go into tank mode, they do have assets in the backcourt and being the laughing stock two years in a row isn’t a great way to attract talent for the future. Ben Gordon is a career 41 percent shooter from beyond the arc and there are a handful of teams that could use his services off the bench. The Bobcats lead the NBA in backcourt scoring and would obviously be acquiring a frontcourt guy, which suggests the additional inside presence could only hurt Mullens.

It’s also easy to forget that Mullens shot a pathetic 34.0 percent from the field in his 13 games prior to his severe ankle sprain. His owners shouldn’t be expecting him to keep up the pace of his four-game outburst.

5. Tim Duncan- He’s kind of another no doi sell-high player and the cat’s certainly out of the bag. He hasn’t put “fun” in the Big Fundamental in the past four weeks with nine DNPs. The Spurs are rumored to be going after some big men and it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to figure out that it’s all to provide depth behind Duncan for their stretch run.

The big question is: How low would you go in selling? On a per-game average, Duncan has provided top-five value in both eight- and nine-category leagues, so this question really lies into what type of format you have. If you’re in a daily Rotisserie league that has a max-games limit, Duncan could still hold some value. As long as you’re aware of the Arena Pops and can get him out of your lineup on time. However, head-to-head owners aren’t going to enjoy his massive drop-off in March with numerous DNPs.

Head-to-head owners should probably start selling at about ninth-round value and work their way down. Roto owners would probably be best suited to just keep him and his per-game production should only drop to about fifth-round with his expected minutes drop.

6. Randy Foye- He’s been hot lately and ranks third in the league in 3-pointers made in February. He’s also making a career-high 42.8 percent from downtown on the season. However, his luck may begin to run out for quite a few reasons. The returns of Gordon Hayward and Mo Williams are the most obvious, but the Jazz seem extremely likely to be making a deal. They have the deepest group of bigs in the NBA and it’s probably safe to assume Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap may be on their way out. As a result, the Jazz will get some players back. A deal for just draft picks just doesn’t seem to be enough since they’ll likely be going to a contender, so Utah will be asking for a young wing or point guard. Foye owners should prepare to dump him at a heavily discounted rate.

7. Samuel Dalembert- Slammin’ Sammy Dalembert has been off the charts since Larry Sanders went down. In his last five games, he averaged 16.4 points, 11.2 boards and 2.6 blocks in 27.0 minutes. The timing couldn’t be better for the Bucks and chances are his performance put him firmly on the radar for NBA GMs looking to bolster their depth in the frontcourt.

It’s probably not going to be easy to deal him to an owner that is expecting him to even be an eight-point, eight-board guy, but that’s probably about his max on projection, so in conjunction with the trade rumors, testing the waters at that value makes sense.

8. Will Bynum- He’s another sell high for those “what have you done for me lately?” owners in your league. Bynum turned in a big game off the bench on Wednesday, scoring 20 points with eight assists in just 21 minutes. He hasn’t been too shabby in his last eight games either, averaging 12.3 points, 5.5 assists and 1.0 steals.

There can be a bit of an interesting catch with Bynum, though. If he gets sent to Boston, he might actually gain value with no player on Boston's roster able to hold down the point guard duties. He would fit in nicely with Boston, especially with his penetration ability. The 30-year-old guard has made 3.5 shots at the rim over his last eight games. As a reference point, Tony Parker leads point guards this year with 4.0 makes from that range on the season. It’s not a bad idea to see if someone might overpay and perhaps you could use the Boston rumor as a strong selling point.

9. Luke Ridnour- He’s another guy that enters the break on a hot streak. In his last four games, Luke averaged 19.0 points and 1.5 triples on 56.1 percent from the field. His field goal percentage over his career is just 43 percent and only 12.3 percent of his field goals came at the rim in the aforementioned four games, so there’s no way he’ll even shoot remotely close to 48 percent from the field the rest of the way. He could wind up with Boston, but a deal to New York or Utah would put a major dent in his value.

10. Jared Dudley- This is really a deep-league special right here. Dudley has been rumored to be on the block and he’s coming off a 26-minute game against the Lakers, so it’s not a bad window to try and get anything for him. His value will take a hit no matter where he goes since the Suns have some of the worst competition for minutes at the wing. Their small forward and shooting guards collectively rank in the bottom five for efficiency rating in the NBA. What’s more, the Suns are using Kendall Marshall more to see what he can do. Dudley isn’t very good and he’s barely worth owning in almost any format. I’d try to ship him in a 2-for-1 deal.