When
compared to flat-betting, the use of an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) provides a superior
return-on-investment that is just too darn good to ignore.

The
Proof Is In The PROFIT

In
case you havent figured it out by now, the term flat-bet can just as
easily be replaced with Kelly Criterion bet.The Kelly holds that you wager in direct proportion to your
player-edge over a given bet, neither increasing nor decreasing it during any given hand.As such, Kelly-based flat-bets derive their
net-profit from the average of short-hand losers and long-hand winners that your
personal SRR-rate produces.Unfortunately,
despite its validity, youll likely experience all kinds of wild bankroll volatility
swings when using Kelly-style betting.Frankly,
I am not fundamentally against the use of Kelly wagering; its just that most players
cannot endure the whipsaw ups and downs of the win-some, lose-a-lot results, and as
such, their own actual shooting ability is negatively affected by the psychological toll
that that kind of nerve-wracking unpredictability brings to their game.

Initial
Steep Regressions take some of that volatility out of the game by offering a higher rate
of predictability as well as providing an increased level of retained profit.At the end of the day, however, you have to make
the decision as to how steadily and how profitably you want to take advantage of your own
dice-influencing skills.The choice is
entirely up to you.

Take
a look at how Initial Steep Regressions stack up against flat Kelly-style wagering:

$110-Inside
Flat-bet

vs.

$110-Inside
Regressed to $22-Inside

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

$110-Inside
Flat-bet

Net-Profit/Hand

$16.00

$33.50

$56.25

$110-Inside
Regressed

to
$22-Inside

Net-Profit/Hand

$19.92

$89.69

$124.86

$-Difference

$3.92

$56.19

$68.61

Increased

Return-on-Investment

3.56%

51.08%

62.67%

$160-Across
Flat-bet

vs.

$160-Across
Regressed to $32-Across

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

$160-Across
Flat-bet

Net-Profit/Hand

$24.80

$55.60

$86.40

$160-Across
Regressed

to
$32-Across

Net-Profit/Hand

$52.34

$90.52

$129.27

$-Difference

$27.54

$34.92

$42.87

Increased

Return-on-Investment

50.68%

38.57%

33.16%

$100-Outside
Flat-bet

vs.

$100-Outside
Regressed to $20-Outside

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

$100-Outside
Flat-bet

Net-Profit/Hand

$2.79

$21.14

$35.83

$100-Outside
Regressed

to
$20-Outside

Net-Profit/Hand

$24.38

$61.24

$134.53

$-Difference

$21.59

$40.10

$98.70

Increased

Return-on-Investment

87.80%

65.48%

73.37%

While
most gamblers are trying to figure out ways to make money off of random-rollers, smart
players are taking some or all of that needlessly imperiled negative-expectation money,
and deploying it on positive EV (expected-value) ISR wagers where they not only have a
positive-expectation of profit; but where they have a superior expected rate-of-return
over flat Kelly-based wagering too.

Some
people like to gamble, and some people like to win.

In
most cases, the difference comes down to how you specifically wager your money.

As
a modestly skilled dice-influencer, Steep Regressions offer a tangible way to turn some of
the casinos money into YOUR money, instead of the other way around; and when it comes
right down to it, that is what advantage-play is all about.

Even-Number
Bets

ØThree
ways to make a 4, and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.

ØFive
ways to make a 6, and it pays 7:6.

ØFive
ways to make an 8, and it pays 7:6.

ØThree
ways to make a 10 and it pays 9:5, unless you buy it, in which case it pays out at 2:1,
less the vigorish.

Therefore,
the Even-Number wager constitutes 16-out-of-36 (44.44%) of all randomly-expected outcomes,
and their average weighted-payout is $7.75 per hit.

How
often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based SRR-rate.

Sevens
Appearance
Rate

Random
SRR 6

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

Appearance
Ratio

1-in-6

1-in-7

1-in-8

1-in-9

Probability

16.67%

14.29%

12.5%

11.11%

7s-per-36
rolls

6

5.14

4.5

4

Even-Numbers
to Sevens
Ratio

Random
SRR 6

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

Even-Numbers
to Total Outcomes

16-out-of-36

16.46

16.80

17.07

Per-Roll

Probability

44.44%

45.72%

46.67%

47.42%

Even
-Numbers-

to-7s
Ratio

2.67:1

3.20:1

3.73:1

4.27:1

Anatomy
Of An Even-Number Wager

Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer
to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent basis than if he is
making comparably spread flat Kelly-style bets.

Flat-bet

Repayment
Rate

Even-Number
Hits

Total
Investment

Weighted

Payout

Return
on Investment

Profit

0

$22

$0

0%

(-$22.00)

1

-

$7.75

35.23%

(-$14.25)

2

-

$7.75

70.45%

(-$6.50)

3

-

$7.75

105.68%

$1.25

As
with any other bet, a random-roller still has a greater chance of 7ing-Out than he
does of hitting enough Even-number bets for it to pay for itself on a consistent basis.That is the nature of ANY randomly-based
bets that you make.Again, if you are chasing
random-rollers and trying to make a steady profit off of them, then your money would be
better deployed on your very own validated advantage-play wagers.

As
a flat-betting advantage-player, it takes three winning same-bet hits before this $22
Even-Number wager breaks into profitability.Fortunately,
in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer, the Even-number bet can be a steady
profit contributor to your bankroll, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to flat-bets
with it.Take a look:

Expected
Flat-bet Win-Rate

$22
Even-Number bet

Expected
Profit/Roll

Random
SRR 6

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

Even-Numbers-to-7s
Ratio

2.67:1

3.20:1

3.73:1

4.27:1

1

$7.75

$7.75

$7.75

$7.75

2

$7.75

$7.75

$7.75

$7.75

3

$5.19

Weighted
payout

$7.75

$7.75

$7.75

4

-

$1.55

Weighted
payout

$5.66

Weighted
payout

$7.75

-

-

-

$2.09

Weighted
payout

Total
Expected Payout

$20.69

$24.80

$28.91

$33.09

Remaining
Wager

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit

-$1.31

$2.80

$6.91

$11.09

Return-on-Investment

-5.94%

12.73%

41.41%

50.41%

As
with Inside-Numbers, All-Across and Outside-wagers; your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely
determines the average roll-duration of your Even-number bet.Equally, your SRR also determines the decay-rate
of your validated edge against any given bet and therefore establishes the optimal time to
regress your initially large bet into a smaller, lower-value one.

Even-Number
Bet
Survival-Rate

Even-Number

Hit-rate

Random
SRR 6

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

1

44.44%

45.72%

46.67%

47.42%

2

37.03%

39.19%

40.84%

42.15%

3

30.86%

33.59%

35.71%

37.47%

4

25.71%

28.79%

31.27%

33.31%

5

21.43%

24.67%

27.36%

29.61%

6

17.85%

21.15%

23.94%

26.32%

7

14.88%

18.13%

20.95%

23.39%

8

12.40%

15.53%

18.33%

20.79%

9

10.33%

13.32%

16.04%

18.43%

10

8.61%

11.41%

14.03%

16.43%

11

7.17%

9.78%

12.28%

14.60%

12

5.98%

8.38%

10.74%

12.98%

As
usual:

ØIf
we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory for the
Even-Number bets we are making; then we can easily determine the ideal time to regress
them from their initially high starting-value.

ØEven
though advantage-play flat-betting can produce a net-profit for us, the use of ISRs
substantially increase our same-skill profit-rate.

ØThe
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand; and obviously the
higher your SRR is, the more time (as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you
will have in which to fully exploit your dice-influencing skills.

Therefore,
the expected roll-duration hit-rate for the Even-number wager correctly factors in the
modified sevens-appearance-rate for any given SRR; which in turn then produces the optimal
regression trigger-point for each skill-level.

ØOnce
we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the
trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial wager down to a lower level.In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit
while still maintaining active bets on the layout in the event that our hand-duration does
exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it often will.

ØRegression-betting
does not mean that we remove our bets once they have paid for themselves;
rather, it means that we reduce the initial large-bet into a still-active small-bet while
concurrently locking in a profit at the optimal trigger-point.Not only will more of our short hands produce a
tangible profit, but the long ones will continue to produce revenue too.

ØWe
produce many more short hands than we produce long ones.Why not capitalize on it instead of fighting it?Why not use most of our short hands to produce a
profit instead of hoping and praying that each and every hand will be long enough to
produce sufficient multiple Kelly-based flat-bet wins to produce an overall profit?

ØThe
more profit our bankroll accumulates, the more adaptable and aggressive our wagering can
become.ISRs let us get there
sooner and with much less volatility.

ØThe
Kelly Criterion can accurately tell us how much of our total bankroll we should be
wagering against a given player-advantage bet.I
have no problem with that at all.In fact I
use a partial-Kelly specifically for that bet-sizing purpose as well as using it to
determine my total bet-exposure value.

ØHowever,
Steep Regressions takes much of the volatility-sting out of erosive loses on global
(multi-number, multi-hit-requirement) bets where multiple winning wagers are hit but
unfortunately not enough of them are steadily produced to improve a players overall
shooting confidence.This series is
all about putting steady and predictable profit INTO your hands while concurrently
boosting your overall Precision-Shooting confidence.

ØNobody
is saying that your reduced-bets have to stay at their lower level if your hand
surpasses your average roll-duration point, as it often will.Instead, ISRs let you make more money
from a greater number of hands than flat-betting does, thereby giving you even MORE
bet-flexibility once you get past your average roll-duration point.

A
Practical Comparison

Lets
look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $110 on the Even-Numbers versus the
use of an initial $110 Even-Number wager that is steeply regressed to
$22-Even at the appropriate trigger-point.

Flat-betting

$110
Even-Numbers

Return-on-Investment

Random
SRR 6

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

Even-Numbers-to-7s
Ratio

2.67:1

3.20:1

3.73:1

4.27:1

Flat
Bet

$110.00

$110.00

$110.00

$110.00

Single-hit
Weighted-Payout

$40.25

$40.25

$40.25

$40.25

Expected

Total
Payout

$107.47

$128.80

$150.13

$171.87

Remaining
Exposed Wagers

$110.00

$110.00

$110.00

$110.00

Net-Profit

-$2.53

$18.80

$40.13

$61.87

Return-on-Investment

-2.3%

17.1%

36.5%

56.2%

I
deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negative-expectation territory.

The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the
Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression should take place.

Initial
Steep Regression

$110
Even-Numbers

Regressed
at Optimal Trigger-Point to

$22
Even-Numbers

Return-on-Investment

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

Even-Numbers-to-7s
Ratio

3.20:1

3.73:1

4.27:1

Initial

Large
Bet

$110.00

$110.00

$110.00

Subsequent
Small Bet

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

1st
Hit

$40.25

$40.25

$40.25

2nd
Hit

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

$40.25

$40.25

3rd
Hit

-

$40.25

$40.25

4th
Hit

-

Post-Regression

$6.82

Weighted
payout

$40.25

5th
Hit

-

-

Post-Regression

$7.27

Weighted
payout

Total
Expected Payout

$47.77

$127.57

$168.27

Remaining
Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit
per-Hand

$25.77

$105.57

$146.27

Return-on-
Investment

23.43%

95.97%

132.97%

Heres
a summarized comparison between flat-betting the Even-Numbers versus the use of an Initial
Steep Regression:

$110
Even-Numbers Flat-bet

vs.

$110
Even-Numbers

Regressed
to $22-Even

SRR
7

SRR
8

SRR
9

$110
Even-Number Flat-bet

Net-Profit/Hand

$18.80

$40.13

$61.87

$110
Even-Numbers Regressed

to
$22-Even

Net-Profit/Hand

$25.77

$105.57

$146.27

$-Difference

$6.97

$65.44

$84.40

Increased

Return-on-Investment

27%

62%

58%

For
novice, intermediate and even advanced dice-influencers, regression-betting enjoys a wide
return-on-investment advantage over flat-betting.

ØBy
using a Steep Regression to lock in a quick profit while our wagers are still in
positive-expectation territory, and still permitting a much-reduced set of post-regression
wagers to stay in place once our roll-duration surpasses that point; we get to benefit
from the best of both worlds.

ØISRs
permit us to derive profit from the fattest positive-expectation portion of our
point-cycle, while the newly reduced lower-value bets remain in action when our hand does
exceed it expected average duration.

ØIn
future chapters of this series, we will take a serious look at how to properly ramp up
your bets on those rare but welcome long hands.

Using
Different Steepness Ratios

ØThe
steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit
will be secured.

ØThe
shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower your net-profit will
be.

Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.

Even-Number
Profit Projections

using
various Steepness Ratios

SRR-7

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large
Bet

$44

$66

$88

$110

$220

Subsequent
Small Bet

$22

$22

$22

$22

$22

1st
Hit

Weighted
Value

$15.50

Weighted
Value

$23.25

Weighted
Value

$32.13

Weighted
Value

$40.25

Weighted
Value

$80.50

2nd
Hit

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$7.52

Weighted
payout

Total
Expected Payout

$23.02

$30.77

$39.65

$47.77

$88.02

Remaining
Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit

$1.02

$8.77

$17.65

$25.77

$66.02

Return-on-
Investment

2.32%

13.29%

20.06%

23.43%

30.00%

As
your SRR-rate improves, so does your return on investment, even when you are using a
shallow 2:1 regression ratio.

Even-Number
Profit Projections

using
various Steepness Ratios

SRR-8

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large
Bet

$44

$66

$88

$110

$220

Subsequent
Small Bet

$22

$22

$22

$22

$22

1st
Hit

Weighted
Value

$15.50

Weighted
Value

$23.25

Weighted
Value

$32.13

Weighted
Value

$40.25

Weighted
Value

$80.50

2nd
Hit

$15.50

$23.25

$32.13

$40.25

$80.50

3rd
Hit

$15.50

$23.25

$32.13

$40.25

$80.50

4th
Hit

Post-Regression
$6.82

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$6.82

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$6.82

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$6.82

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$6.82

Weighted
payout

Total
Expected Payout

$53.32

$76.57

$103.21

$127.57

$248.32

Remaining
Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit

$31.32

$54.57

$81.21

$105.57

$226.32

Return-on-
Investment

71.18%

82.68%

92.28%

95.97%

102.87%

Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be.Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better youll be able to take full advantage of your current dice-influencing
skills.

It
is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger-point.While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls
before needing to steeply regress them.In
the case of a SRR-9 shooter using the Even-Numbers bet that weve been discussing
today, hell generally get the benefit of four pre-regression hits before
optimally reducing his bet-exposure.

Even-Number
Profit Projections

using
various Steepness Ratios

SRR-9

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large
Bet

$44

$66

$88

$110

$220

Subsequent
Small Bet

$22

$22

$22

$22

$22

1st
Hit

Weighted
Value

$15.50

Weighted
Value

$23.25

Weighted
Value

$32.13

Weighted
Value

$40.25

Weighted
Value

$80.50

2nd
Hit

$15.50

$23.25

$32.13

$40.25

$80.50

3rd
Hit

$15.50

$23.25

$32.13

$40.25

$80.50

4th
Hit

$15.50

$23.25

$32.13

$40.25

$80.50

5th
Hit

Post-Regression
$7.27

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$7.27

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$7.27

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression

$7.27

Weighted
payout

Post-Regression
$7.27

Weighted
payout

Total
Expected Payout

$69.27

$100.27

$135.79

$168.27

$329.27

Remaining
Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

Net-Profit

$47.27

$78.27

$113.79

$146.27

$307.27

Return-on-
Investment

107.43%

118.59%

129.31%

132.97%

139.67%

Part
Nine
in this series tackles the venerable Anything-but-7 Iron Cross bet.I hope youll join me for that.Until then,