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Is U.S. Hyperinflation Imminent?

According to renowned economist Marc Faber, hyperinflation in the U.S. is a certainty within the next 10 years. Mr. Faber has correctly predicted some of the most important financial events in the modern era including, the stock market crash of 1987; the rise of oil, precious metals and other assets in the 2000′s; and on Fox News in February 2007, he said a U.S. stock market correction was imminent. The market peaked six months later. Is Mr. Faber correct this time? Is U.S. hyperinflation imminent in the next 10 years?

NOTE: For more on Marc Faber, CLICK HERE (his company website) and also HERE

In this article, we will discuss the effects of inflation and hyperinflation, consider an example of hyperinflation and discuss the possibility of this occurring in the U.S. One thing is certain, if hyperinflation does materialize, it would be devastating to our economy. Let’s begin with inflation.

Inflation

The Fed is the primary catalyst for inflation. Moreover, it actually attempts to create a low to moderate level of inflation. Why does the Fed want inflation? Because inflation is a signal of a growing economy. Additionally, if inflation is too high, the economy will suffer. If it’s too low, deflation becomes a threat. Therefore, low to moderate inflation is the goal.

Inflation may be defined as “A general rise in prices” and occurs when demand outpaces supply. Actually, there are a couple of ways inflation can manifest and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy lies at the heart of both. For example, when the Fed lowers interest rates, money is cheaper to borrow. Next, when the Fed expands the money supply, money is more plentiful, which again, makes it easier to borrow. Finally, when the Fed reduces bank reserve requirements (i.e.: The percentage of each deposit which must be held in reserve at the Fed), banks have more money to lend. All three create an environment which makes money more plentiful and cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow. Of course, this assumes consumers and businesses are willing to take on debt. Another consequence of a significant expansion in the money supply is the devaluation of the currency. In essence, when there is a substantial increase in the supply of an item, including currencies, its value declines. Hence, it takes more dollars to buy the same goods and services. In a literal sense, inflation is the result of a decline in the value of a currency. Therefore, if Fed policy is successful, the expectation is that demand will rise, companies will expand their workforce and/or spend more money on technology to meet the increased demand and the economy will grow. However, if demand increases too rapidly, inflation will result.

Although inflation is defined as a general increase in prices, during such periods, prices on some items may rise while others may fall. Therefore, we shouldn’t presume that if home prices rise; food prices, auto prices, etc., will also rise. Actually, prices on specific items rise and fall based on the Fed’s monetary policy plus supply and demand for the particular product or service. For example, let’s assume XYZ Company produces widgets and has a monopoly on them (i.e.: no other company is legally allowed to produce them). Further assume this company makes 8,000 widgets each month, but has the capacity to produce up to 10,000 if necessary. In this case, the company’s “Capacity Utilization” rate (i.e.: the company’s current percentage of maximum capacity) would be 80% (8,000 / 10,000). However, if demand were to suddenly increase to 15,000 widgets per month, XYZ would have to expand its facility, hire more staff and/or purchase technology to meet the increased demand. This would cause the price per unit to rise (at the production level), which would necessitate a price increase to the consumer in order to maintain the same margin of profit. If inflation became too elevated, it would be called hyperinflation. Let’s look at this now.

Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is much less common than inflation. Unfortunately, there is no specific numerical definition for hyperinflation. However, there is some consensus. For example, a few economists suggest that an inflation rate of 50% per month would constitute hyperinflation. Using this rate, a junior cheeseburger deluxe at Wendy’s, which costs about one dollar today, would cost $130 a year from now and nearly $17,000 in 2 years. Needless to say, hyperinflation is a destructive force which is best avoided. Could we actually see hyperinflation in America? Has hyperinflation occurred frequently?

The Nineteenth century was the century of deflation, whereas the Twentieth century was the period of inflation. Hyperinflation occurred as many as 55 times over the past century. Notable countries include: China, Russia, Brazil, Germany, Argentina, Poland, Chile and others. Could it happen in America? Many experts say no.

Because the U.S. has a very proactive Fed, and there’s such a large amount of historical data from countries that have experienced hyperinflation, we should be able to learn from the past mistakes of others and avoid it. However, since inflation and hyperinflation are triggered by an excess of currency, which is not backed by gold or any other substance of value (i.e.; called “fiat” currency), there is no limit to the amount of dollars the U.S. can print (though we don’t print that much actual paper these days). Therefore, we need to briefly discuss the gold standard.

Gold Standard

There are a few different types of gold standards. However, in the interest of brevity, we’ll only skim the surface on this subject. Generally speaking, when a country adopts a gold standard, the amount of currency it may issue is limited by the amount of gold it holds in reserve. During times of war, a country’s need for capital increases, so abandoning the gold standard allows a country to expand its money supply to finance the war. This has been the typical path for countries during wartime. Today, there are no countries on the gold standard. In the absence of this, again there is no limit to amount of currency a country may print. This can be problematic, especially in smaller, developing nations. The absence of a gold standard was a key factor in one of the worst cases of hyperinflation in history. I’m referring to Germany following WWI.

Germany’s Hyperinflation After WWI

When WWI began, Germany abandoned its gold standard in order to print more currency to finance the war. When the war ended, Germany admitted they had started the war and agreed to pay reparations to various countries, with France being the major beneficiary. The details were included in the Treaty of Versailles, the document which formally ended the war. The amount Germany was required to pay was enormous. In fact, the total was close to 226 billion gold marks (approx $846 billion in current U.S. Dollars). After it became evident that Germany was unable to meet this demand, in 1921 the burden was reduced to 132 billion marks, the equivalent of $442 billion in today’s dollars.

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Like all of these market “gurus”, Faber has a stunningly ordinary prediction record, far removed from what you suggest above based on cherry-picking a few correct calls…

Here’s a rundown of it:

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/2875/individual-gurus/marc-faber/

The guy had a good run in the early 2000s and has been a fairly terrible prognosticator since.

“9/4/02 …further downside for the major averages ought to be expected – at least to the 1995 level and possibly down to the 1990 level, or even lower if Prechter has correctly interpreted the Wave Principle (according to him the Dow will decline from quintuple digits to triple digits – that is below 1000).” —> Breathtakingly wrong

“2/18/09 “…interest-rate cuts may cause a short-term jump for stocks. But in the second half of the year, stocks will likely dive again because of the slowdown.” —> Titanically wrong

“4/1/09 …Faber doesn’t expect any full stock market recovery within the next two years ” –> Doubling down on being so dead wrong

“ 5/19/10 It is very likely that the rally, which originated in March 2009, has come to an end and that a correction of 20 to 30 percent from the recent highs will follow.” —> Still wrong

“9/5/12 …for the next three to six-nine months, equity markets will rather go down than up and a better buying opportunity will occur at some point in this period over the next nine months.” —> Listened to this? Missed a 20% gain in the markets!

Bottom line is that the guy gets a lot right, but so does someone who calls “heads” on every single coin flip. And even the proverbial “broken clock” has the right time twice a day.

We need to stop listening to people like this. The Fed is not going to dump all those bunds and crater the market and set off hyperinflation (it’s not clear that would actually set off any inflation, arguably it would do the reverse, but that’s another topic). The Fed will stop buying, let a lot of bonds mature and slowly unwind its balance sheet. It’s not run by idiots. Punditry, on the other hand, is laden with them.

“The Fed is not going to dump all those bunds and crater the market and set off hyperinflation (it’s not clear that would actually set off any inflation, arguably it would do the reverse, but that’s another topic). The Fed will stop buying, let a lot of bonds mature and slowly unwind its balance sheet. It’s not run by idiots. Punditry, on the other hand, is laden with them.”

Strong words for someone who just have an opinion.

Whether the endgame is deflation or inflation depends on a decision taken in the future by a very small group of people. Your belief hinges on the FED stopping credit expansion. It sounds to me like you don’t fully comprehend the consequences of such a move.

Regarding the hyperinflationary scenario. I doubt we’ll see it play out as in the past. It will look more like a discontinuity where the dollar goes to zero in less than a week. Maybe just a few days. This is because the length of the hyperinflationary period is largely determined by the speed of the market. Today everything is digital. Also, never before has so much currency been “printed” and warehoused around the world ahead of time.

If the inflationary path is chosen, it will unfold in a manner and scale never seen before. The same goes for the deflationary path.

“It’s not run by idiots” So far, the FED’s trackrecord puts that statement in doubt. Peruse some FED minutes from 2007 for a good laugh. Bernanke couldn’t smell fire if his beard was ablaze.

I don’t see how it is at all rational to write an article about hyperinflation prediciton without talking about a theory of hyperinflation. You should have a theory of how things work before making or even evalution a prediction. If you don’t have a theory, I have a collection of short summaries for hyperinflation theories you could easily read through.