1. Drew Linzer over at the Daily Kos has presidential and Senate election forecasts up. Of the four stats-using models the Upshot is tracking, I might say I trust Linzer’s the most -- but given that they range right now from giving Hillary Clinton an 87 percent chance to an 89 percent chance, it’s not really necessary to choose between them at this point.

9. And here at Bloomberg View, Justin Fox has a nice item comparing current partisan polarization to the battle over slavery in the 1850s. He asks what we’re battling about now, which is a great question. The answer certainly isn’t a policy, as it was then. Nor is it an ideology, as far as I can tell. It’s partisanship, pure and simple. It’s not quite the way that sports team loyalty works, but it’s not entirely unlike that, either.

Get Early Returns every morning in your inbox. Click here to subscribe.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.