Ben Mabley is from Somerset, England, and currently spends his time watching and writing about football in Osaka.

June 2010

Ahead of my trip to
South Africa this afternoon, today’s
podcast is a rather more ad-libbed collection of thoughts recorded
throughout what turned out to be an emotional last 16 game between Japan and
Paraguay.

The Football Japan Minutecast will
be back in a few days’ time with the first of a special series of episodes
recorded in Johannesburg during the latter stages of the 2010 World Cup.

After securing their first ever wins and qualification from the group
stage in a World Cup held away from home soil, the Japanese national team will
now seek to go one better when they face Paraguay in Pretoria tomorrow
afternoon for a place in the quarter-finals.

Confidence is soaring both inside and outside the camp after last
Thursday’s convincing 3-1 victory over Denmark sealed second spot in Group E. Takeshi
Okada’s ‘best four’ target – which became a major source for mockery among both
pundits and supporters as Japan suffered a run of successive losses in the
lead-up to the tournament – is suddenly being spoken about in serious terms
again, but the manager himself has insisted that this next step will be the
most significant.

“The hurdle of reaching the last eight has always been in the back of my
mind since our opening game,” said Okada yesterday. “Right now, we are
concentrating solely on beating Paraguay.”

This is a hurdle that Japan have tried and failed to overcome once
before, leading some domestic observers to recall the mistakes of the co-hosted
World Cup in 2002. Then, Philippe Troussier’s side surrendered meekly during
their second round game in Miyagi against Turkey, who went on to beat Senegal
in the last eight before losing narrowly to eventual champions Brazil in the
semi-finals. Many still see this as a missed opportunity caused by premature
satisfaction at simply qualifying from the group stage, and in this respect,
popular opinion is beginning to accept that there may have been some logic
behind Okada’s lofty aspirations after all.

Both current captain Makoto Hasebe and predecessor Yuji Nakazawa have declared
that the players do indeed have the hunger to keep on progressing this time
around, while Okada and left-back Yuto Nagatomo have also spoken about their
desire to fly the flag for Asia after South Korea’s 2-1 defeat to Uruguay on
Saturday left Japan as the competition’s only remaining AFC representatives. History
would not appear to be on the side of the Samurai Blue, however, as South
American teams have won eight of the previous ten encounters between the two continents
at World Cups, with solitary group stage draws for North Korea against Chile in
1966 and South Korea against Bolivia in 1994.

That said, victory for Paraguay at the Loftus Versfield Stadium would
also represent their first ever victory in the knockout stages of a World Cup
after falling at the last 16 on three previous occasions. Despite finishing top
of a group containing reigning world champions Italy, La Albirroja looked out of sorts in their goalless draw with New
Zealand last week and will have to do without defensive midfielder Victor Cáceres
through suspension. Coach Gerardo Martino also has to decide whether or not to include
defender Antolín Alcaraz and midfielder Jonathan Santana – both of whom
returned to training on Saturday after missing the final group game through
injury – as Paraguay look for a way of nullifying the Japanese danger at set
pieces.

“Obviously from what we saw the other day,” said
Martino, “we need to try not to concede fouls near the area. When Japan find
space they get men forward into attack and this is the most important issue to
be careful about.”

Japan look certain to keep with the same
starting eleven for the fourth game in a row after Marcus Tulio Tanaka announced
that he has recovered from a knock picked up against Denmark. The Nagoya
Grampus stopper has backed the likes of Keisuke Honda to maintain the side’s
prowess at free-kicks, stating “Every goal is so much more precious now in this
knockout stage and it is important we try to get our noses in front first. One
thing we will have to try and do is vary our set-pieces to surprise the
Paraguayans.”

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In six previous games between the two countries, Paraguay hold the upper
hand with two victories to Japan’s one – including a 4-0 romp in their only
competitive meeting at the 1999 Copa America – but Japan are unbeaten in three
friendlies played so far this century. The second round match kicks off in
Pretoria at 4pm local time (11pm Japanese time), with the winners set to play
either Spain or Portugal in the last eight.

Japan put in perhaps their finest ever performance – and certainly one
of the most impressive by any team in South Africa thus far – to defeat Denmark
3-1 in Rustenburg last night and seal qualification to the knockout stages of
the World Cup for the first time ever on foreign soil.

Two superb free kicks in the first half from Keisuke Honda and Yasuhito
Endo gave Takeshi Okada’s side a lead they never looked like surrendering, even
after a late Danish rally had seen Jon Dahl Tomasson pull a single goal back
with nine minutes remaining. Substitute forward Shinji Okazaki added a third in
the dying moments of the game to guarantee the win, sparking scenes of
jubilation both on the substitutes’ bench and in bars, homes, and streets
throughout Japan shortly after 5am local time.

Unsurprisingly, Okada continued with the same eleven that had beaten
Cameroon in their opening Group E game before losing narrowly to Holland five
days previously, but the manager did raise a few eyebrows by pushing Makoto
Hasebe forward to support the attack in what therefore became a 4-2-3-1
formation. Denmark coach Morten Olsen made two changes to his side, restoring
Thomas Kahlenberg to the midfield in place of Jesper Grønkjær, while Per Krøldrup
deputised for the suspended Simon Kjær in central defence.

The return to the formation that had worked in Asian qualification but
rarely since handed the early initiative to Denmark – who needed a win to seal
their place in the last 16 – as left-back Simon Poulsen found space to surge
forward and combine with Tomasson in attacking positions. Okada quickly
instructed Hasebe to step back and restore the 4-1-2-2-1 system of the previous
two matches, but if observers feared this signalled an intention to play for
the draw that would secure Japan’s progression, their worries were allayed when
Daisuke Matsui and Hasebe both went close to scoring within a matter of
seconds.

The opening goal then duly arrived on 17 minutes. Honda lined up a
free-kick fully 30 yards from goal near the right-hand touchline, before firing
a wickedly powerful shot with very little spin that Denmark goalkeeper Thomas Sørensen
struggled to read before the ball eventually flew in past his outstretched
right hand. With Japan now firmly in the ascendancy, it took only until the
half-hour mark for Endo to double the lead from another set piece, this time
with more conventional right-footed curl to take the ball around the wall from
just outside the penalty area.

Olsen immediately reacted by sending on midfielder Jakob Poulsen for the
disappointing Martin Jørgensen, but Japan continued to surge forwards and could
have added a bizarre third shortly after the interval when Endo’s looping
free-kick was spilled onto the post by Sørensen. Denmark finally found some
momentum thereafter when Eiji Kawashima saved at the feet of Tomasson, before substitute
Søren Larsen hit the crossbar with a cracking volley from 20 yards. The
breakthrough eventually came when Hasebe was harshly penalised for a push on
Daniel Agger inside the Japanese penalty area, though Tomasson needed two
attempts to score after his weak spot kick was parried back to him by
Kawashima.

Japan remained entirely unfazed, and put the icing on the cake of their
finest ever achievement on 87 minutes when Honda danced past Dennis Rommedahl,
before drawing Sørensen and squaring for Okazaki to slot home the easiest of
finishes.

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The victory was, once again, a triumph for a manager who had endured
fierce criticism in the months leading to the tournament for his lack of
results and ideas in Japan’s warm-up matches. Okada admitted after the game
that his tactical switch after just ten minutes had been necessary to restore stability,
and praised his players for “fighting not as individuals but together, and
proving conclusively that football is above all a team sport”.

Perhaps the most revealing comments as regards Japan’s upturn in
fortunes came from man-of-the-match Honda. “I’m pleased,” said the CSKA Moscow
midfielder, “but then not as much as I thought I would be. We’re still a long
way from fulfilling our goals in this competition, and we need to show that
nothing is impossible in the next game as well now. Until then, we can’t be
satisfied”.

Japan will now take on Group F winners Paraguay in their second round
match in Pretoria next Tuesday afternoon, after Gerardo Martino’s side secured
qualification with a goalless draw against New Zealand. Holland sealed top spot
in Group E thanks to a 2-1 victory over already-eliminated Cameroon, and will
face Slovakia in the last 16 after their shock 3-2 win to knock out defending
champions Italy.

Japan go into their final Group E game with Denmark in Rustenburg on
Thursday evening knowing a draw will be good enough to clinch their place in
the World Cup knockout stages for only the second time ever – and the first on
foreign soil.

A 2-1 victory for the Danes over Cameroon last Saturday was enough to
maintain their hopes of qualifying for the last sixteen – a feat they have
managed in each of their previous three Finals appearances – but the slender
goal difference advantage enjoyed by Japan after a tense 1-0 defeat to Holland
means that Morten Olsen’s side will require all three points to progress.

Merely to stand on the brink of history represents a significant
achievement in itself for Takeshi Okada and his players after a dismal build up
to the World Cup in South Africa had seen the team booed by their own fans and fiercely
castigated in the domestic media. A widely criticised tactical switch to a more
pragmatic 4-1-2-2-1 system during Japan’s pre-tournament training camp bore
instant fruits with a 1-0 win in their opening group match against Cameroon –
sparking a complete U-turn in media and supporter opinion which has remained
highly optimistic even in spite of the narrow loss to the Dutch.

The situation is certainly far more promising than four years ago in
Germany, when Japan needed both to rely on events elsewhere and to beat
defending champions Brazil by at least two goals – despite taking a first-half
lead, Zico’s side were ultimately demolished by the manager’s compatriots in
the second half to lose 4-1. On home soil in 2002, Philippe Troussier’s Japan
were able to go one better than the required draw in beating Tunisia 2-0 to
finish top of their first round group, but Okada’s previous experience at
France ’98 saw the team eliminated even before their final match against
Jamaica following defeats to both Argentina and Croatia.

Despite Japan’s unexpectedly fine showing so far in this year’s World
Cup having being built upon a solid defence, the manager has once again
emphasised the dangers of playing for a draw and insisted that victory is the main
objective against Denmark. In unusually relaxed mood during his press
conference in Rustenburg on Wednesday, Okada joked that he hoped his side could
‘win 10-0 and take the pressure off’, but admitted that it was rather more
likely ‘to be a very close, fierce match’.

With no new injury worries, Okada appears certain to remain loyal both
to the formation and to the players that have started Japan’s two games so far,
meaning that Keisuke Honda will continue up front and Yuki Abe will resume his
highly successful destructive role in defensive midfield. Eiji Kawashima, who
has not received the same level of criticism back home as in much of the
international press for his fumble against Holland, is expected to keep his
place in goal ahead of Seigo Narazaki.

------------

Denmark are also free of injuries, but Palermo defender Simon Kjær will
miss the game with Japan after picking up yellow cards against both Holland and
Cameroon. Per Krøldrup of Fiorentina is likely to deputise, while midfielder
Daniel Jensen could be in line for his first start of the competition after
replacing the disappointing Martin Jørgensen at half-time on Saturday.

Thursday’s match at the Royal
Bafokeng Stadium kicks off at 8.30pm local time (3.30am on Friday Japanese time). The
only previous meeting between the two sides came in a friendly back in 1971,
when Japan were beaten 3-2 in Copenhagen despite a brace from legendary forward
Kunishige Kamamoto.

A blunder by goalkeeper Eiji Kawashima allowed Wesley Sneijder to clinch
a 1-0 victory for Holland on Saturday as another strong defensive performance
from Japan went unrewarded.

After a goalless first half, Sneijder latched onto a pass from Robin van
Persie – who may have controlled the ball with his hand – to fire a speculative
right-footed shot from just outside the Japanese penalty area on 52 minutes. Diving
to his right, Kawashima looked to have the powerful effort covered but failed
to get both hands to it and watched in horror as the ball deflected off his
left glove into the net behind him.

Despite speculation that Japan might adopt a more attacking formation
after their tense 1-0 win over Cameroon last Monday, coach Takeshi Okada went
with an unchanged line-up that saw Keisuke Honda once again positioned as a
lone forward, with Yoshito Okubo and Daisuke Matsui manning the flanks and Yuki
Abe providing defensive cover in midfield. Opposite number Bert van Marwijk
also remained loyal to the eleven that had beaten Denmark 2-0 at Soccer City,
with Rafael van der Vaart retaining his place at left wing in the continued
absence of Arjen Robben.

The Japanese system had effectively neutralised the threat of Samuel Eto’o
and Pierre Webo during the opening group fixture, and after a testing start
looked to be paying similar dividends against the group favourites too as Abe
in particular continued to block the Dutch path through to danger man Sneijder.
With eight or nine white shirts behind the ball whenever Holland ventured
forwards, Japan grew in confidence as they frustrated their opponents
throughout the opening 45 minutes, and even managed to create the half’s best
two chances on the counter. Left-back Yuto Nagatomo fired a low shot wide of
Maarten Stekelenburg’s left-hand post, while Matsui tested the goalkeeper with
a dipping volley late on.

Sneijder’s goal early in the second period meant that Japan had to adopt
a more ambitious approach thereafter, but despite taking hold of the game as
the uncharacteristically influent Dutch sat back on their lead, Okada’s men
struggled to create genuine opportunities to equalise. Van Persie sliced the
ball over his own crossbar with 20 minutes remaining as Shunsuke Nakamura,
Shinji Okazaki, and Keiji Tamada were all sent on to provide greater numbers
going forward.

The match truly opened up in a frantic final five minutes as Eljero Elia
– who managed two assists on his international debut against Japan last year –
fed fellow substitute Ibrahim Afellay only to be denied by Kawashima, who then
continued his redemption with another save from the PSV Eindhoven winger
moments later. The stops might have been crucial as Marcus Tulio Tanaka put
Okazaki through on goal in stoppage time, but the Shimizu S-Pulse forward fired
over from eight yards to end Japan’s hopes of stealing a point.

Speaking on Japanese television moments after the final whistle as the
relieved Dutch players celebrated on the pitch, a visibly drained Takeshi Okada
said he was “frustrated” with the result. “It’s a shame because we tried hard
to get an equaliser. The players worked well as a team both in defence and in
attack. We don’t know what will happen in the group’s other matches but we will
of course do our best to beat Denmark.”

Captain Makoto Hasebe stressed the need to take the positives from what
was an impressive performance overall despite Japan’s lack of potency in front
of goal. “Every player gave 100%. Our defence was well organised and we managed
to get forward more effectively too, so we now have to carry this into our
third game as well.”

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Denmark recovered from an early Samuel Eto’o opener in the other Group E
game to beat Cameroon 2-1 thanks to goals from Nicklas Bendtner and Dennis
Rommedahl. The result means that Cameroon are the first nation to be eliminated
from this year’s World Cup, while Japan will only need a draw to ensure their
place in the last 16 when they face the Danes in Rustenburg this Thursday.

Neither
Japan nor Holland may have been able to enjoy their scheduled training sessions
at the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban today due to heavy rain, but the mood in
the former camp remains highly positive after Monday’s 1-0 win over Cameroon
left the Samurai Blue in an excellent position to qualify for the knockout
stages of a World Cup for only the second time ever.

Victory
tomorrow against the Dutch – who beat Denmark 2-0 in their opener – will ensure
Japan’s passage to the last 16 with a game to spare unless the Danes beat
Cameroon later, while even defeat will still leave Takeshi Okada’s men in
charge of their own destiny going into the group’s final fixtures next Thursday.

The
manager could, therefore, be excused for viewing any points gained from Bert
van Marwijk’s men as a bonus and adopting a similarly defensive strategy as
against Cameroon, but has instead vowed to attack 35-year-old Giovanni van
Bronckhorst’s perceived lack of pace at left-back in order to get behind the Holland
defence.

“We
are not a side that approaches any game looking for a draw,” said Okada in a
press conference on Thursday. “From the start, we will be going there to win.”

A
series of similarly upbeat comments from the coaching staff and squad this week
have sparked much speculation within the Japanese media about further changes
in tactics. A mooted shift to 4-4-2 was quickly dismissed by Okada, but several
news sources have predicted a return to the starting eleven for Shinji Okazaki –
partly in light of the revelation that the Shimizu S-Pulse striker was among a
trio of players to have struggled with the altitude in Bloemfontein and at the
team’s pre-tournament training camp in Switzerland.

Okazaki
was brought on in a straight swap for Yoshito Okubo to play the final 22
minutes against Cameroon on the left wing. Should the 24-year-old be fielded
from the start at sea level in Durban, either Okubo or Daisuke Matsui would
appear likeliest to miss out, depending on whether or not Monday’s hero Keisuke
Honda continues as a lone forward or drops back to his more familiar position
in attacking midfield.

Any
rethink concerning the protective cushion of three at the base of midfield
would be a surprise, considering how much more cohesive Japan have looked since
abandoning their previous 4-2-3-1 system following a 2-0 defeat to South Korea
in their final home warm-up last month. Anchorman Yuki Abe could, however, be
rested tomorrow to avoid the risk of a second yellow card ahead of the crucial
third match against Denmark, with Junichi Inamoto of Kawasaki Frontale
favourite to deputise.

Right-back
Atsuto Uchida and goalkeeper Seigo Narazaki are the other two players thought
to have suffered at altitude, but while Uchida will resume a three-way battle for
a starting berth with Yuichi Komano and the now fully fit Yasuyuki Konno, Eiji
Kawashima looks to have cemented his place between the sticks following another
assured performance against Cameroon.

------------

With
a previously critical Japanese press having seemingly recovered their faith in
Okada and his players, much of the media attention has now switched to avenging
the only previous meeting between Japan and Holland just nine months ago. The
friendly match in Enschede was a particularly chastening experience for Keisuke
Honda, then of Eredivisie side VVV Venlo, who was introduced after a scoreless
first half only to see goals from Robin van Persie, Wesley Sneijder, and
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar give the Dutch a comfortable 3-0 win.

Eljero
Elia of Hamburg marked his debut that day with two assists – also as a
half-time substitute – and could be in line for a start tomorrow after coming
off the bench to set up a goal for Dirk Kuijt against Denmark. Rafael van der
Vaart had started at left wing on Monday in place of injured regular Arjen
Robben, who will undergo a late fitness test on a hamstring strain to determine
if he can play any part against Japan.

After all the trials and tribulations of the past few months, Japan’s
World Cup campaign in South Africa got off to the perfect start yesterday at
the Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein as Keisuke Honda’s first half strike
sealed a 1-0 victory over Group E rivals Cameroon.

Playing as a centre-forward for the first time ever in a competitive
match, Honda coolly slotted past goalkeeper Hamidou Souleymanou at the far post
on 38 minutes after Daisuke Matsui’s deep cross from the right-hand flank had
evaded the leaps of Cameroon defenders Nicolas N’Koulou and Stephane Mbia.

The pre-match rumours over Takeshi Okada’s latest tactical evolutions
had proved correct when Honda was named at the head of an attacking trio
alongside Yoshito Okubo and the recalled Matsui, with Shunsuke Nakamura paying
for his loss of form with a place on the bench despite recovering from an ankle
injury. The only other change from the recent series of friendlies was a place
for Yuichi Komano at right back; preferred to Atsuto Uchida after Yasuyuki
Konno’s knee problem was deemed not worth risking.

Without a single recognised striker on the pitch, Japan began the game
in cautious fashion as Honda frequently dropped back into midfield, while Yuki
Abe’s presence ahead of the back four helped break up the few attacks that a
surprisingly lacklustre Cameroon forward line could muster. After a dour
opening quarter that unfortunately reflected much of the football on show in
South Africa thus far, Okada’s side began to grow in confidence as they
controlled more of the possession, before Honda’s goal provided a crucial
advantage to take into half time.

Samuel Eto’o had looked frustrated on the right of a forward three for
much of the opening period, but his intervention created the first good chance
for the Indomitable Lions three minutes after the interval as the Inter Milan
star beat three Japan defenders, only for Maxim Choupo-Moting to fire over the
crossbar. Shinji Okazaki was introduced in a straight swap for Okubo on the
left flank to add extra energy to the Japan attack, and came closest to doubling
the lead with ten minutes remaining when hitting the post after Makoto Hasebe’s
initial effort had been parried by Souleymanou.

Despite little else to excite the neutrals up to this point, Cameroon
finally discovered some attacking rhythm in the closing moments as Japan began
to invite more pressure in a manner eerily similar to their opening World Cup
game against Australia in 2006. Then, three late goals had given the Socceroos
a dramatic 3-1 victory, but Japan were spared a repeat this time as Mbia’s
30-yard effort crashed off the crossbar with five minutes remaining, before
Eiji Kawashima saved brilliantly from substitute Mohammadou Idrissou in
stoppage time.

The win was a triumph for Japan boss Okada, who has been under enormous
pressure this year from a domestic media unhappy with both results and the recent
switch in formation. On this occasion, the surprise deployment of Honda as a
forward in the new 4-1-2-2-1 system paid dividends, but the manager was quick
to pass credit to his players, saying that they had ‘worked together as a team
to clinch a good victory’.

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Japan will now move on to the Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban for
Saturday’s meeting against group favourites Holland, who kicked off with a 2-0
victory over Denmark at Soccer City yesterday thanks to a Daniel Agger own goal
and a late second from Dirk Kuijt.

Tactics have continued to dominate the headlines in the build-up to
Japan’s opening Group E match against Cameroon in Bloemfontein tonight as coach
Takeshi Okada looks to fine tune his belated pre-World Cup switch to 4-1-2-2-1
from the 4-2-3-1 system favoured throughout qualification.

Central to the new formation is attacking midfielder Keisuke Honda, who
turned 24 yesterday, but the CSKA Moscow star looks set to be given an
unfamiliar centre-forward role after playing up front during training this week
and in a hastily-arranged practice match against Zimbabwe last Thursday.

The recent change in approach came about after a series of poor friendly
performances – including comprehensive home defeats to South Korea and Serbia’s
B team – in which the midfield pairing of Yasuhito Endo and Makoto Hasebe
struggled against their opponents’ heavy pressing. Yuki Abe has since been
deployed in a purely defensive midfield capacity to bring greater solidity and
balance during narrow warm-up losses against England and the Ivory Coast.

Goalscoring, however, remains a problem, with Shinji Okazaki in
particular struggling to bring the form that saw him score 15 international
goals last year into matches against stronger opposition. The idea floated this
week is that Honda’s strength and creativity will allow other attacking players
to be brought into the game more effectively if fielded up front in the Shimizu
S-Pulse hitman’s stead.

Such a move would nonetheless represent a major gamble. Honda has never
played as a forward before, and failed to trouble the Zimbabwe goalkeeper
during a goalless practice game played over three 30-minute periods. Takayuki
Morimoto of Catania took the lone striking role in the second period on
Thursday and remains another option despite enjoying little playing time under
Okada thus far.

The other major team news for Japan is that long-serving talisman
Shunsuke Nakamura is set to start on the bench despite recovering from the
ankle knock that saw him play a reduced role in the recent series of
friendlies. The former Celtic and Espanyol star has struggled for form since returning
to the J. League with Yokohama F Marinos earlier this year, and the two
attacking midfield berths now appear likely to be filled by Yoshito Okubo and
Daisuke Matsui.

Yasuyuki Konno is close to a full recovery after injuring his right knee
against the Ivory Coast ten days ago, and is expected to edge out Atsuto Uchida
at right-back.

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Cameroon boss Paul Le Guen surprised journalists at his press conference
on Saturday by announcing that Arsenal midfielder Alexandre Song and Espanyol
goalkeeper Carlos Kameni would be dropped from the starting eleven to face
Japan. The Frenchman insisted that Song remains one of his ‘great players’ and
seemed to imply that the move was merely temporary, but the prospects for
Kameni look less promising after 36-year-old custodian Hamidou Souleymanou was
declared as the clear first choice.

Kameni appears to have paid the price for a poor showing at January’s
Africa Cup of Nations, in which Cameroon were eliminated at the quarter-final
stage following a 3-1 extra time loss to eventual winners Egypt. The
Indomitable Lions have since drawn with Italy and Slovakia in friendlies, but
suffered narrow defeats away to Portugal and Serbia in warm-up matches earlier
this month.

Tonight’s game will be the fourth time that Japan and Cameroon have met
at senior level. Japan have hosted all three previous meetings and are unbeaten
with two wins and a draw so far – current regular Marcus Tulio Tanaka opening
the scoring last time around in a 2-0 victory in 2007 – but Cameroon
are 11/10 favourites with Bet365 to gain revenge tonight.

The match kicks off in Bloemfontein at 4pm local time (11pm Japanese
time).

At the time of writing, it is just 36 hours until the 2010 FIFA World Cup finally gets under way in South Africa
tomorrow evening. Throughout the tournament, the Football Japan Minutecast will
be online several times each week with previews and reports of every single
Japan game, plus a series of special features to be broadcast direct from
Johannesburg in early July as the knockout stages unfold. Be sure not to miss
it!

But while the hours and minutes before the
opening game are still ticking down, the World Cup wouldn’t be the World Cup
without a nice long list of predictions that we can all look back on in a
month’s time to see how wrong we were. I chatted last week with legendary
Japanese football writer Hiroshi
Kagawa – a veteran of nine World Cups and, at 85, the oldest active
sportswriter in the country – alongside SIX president Katsumi Honda and fellow Football
Japan writer Izumi Nemoto about our
hopes and expectations for South Africa 2010.

5. Moving away from just Japan and onto the tournament
as a whole – who is going to win the 2010 World Cup?

Kagawa: Spain have
got a good reputation right now, but I’m yet to actually see them play well at a
World Cup! Certainly, they are very strong. They have good forwards, Gerard
Pique has added to a solid defence, and it would be no surprise to see them win
it. With Italy – perhaps the best team at frustrating and resisting a team like
Spain – looking a little weaker this year, I hope the Spanish will take
advantage of their opportunity. Otherwise, Brazil obviously have to be ranked
as contenders well, but I also hope that England will string a few wins
together and at least make the final!

Honda: England.
Whenever they’ve appeared in a World Cup hosted by an English-speaking country,
they’ve always won it.

Nemoto: Spain. With a robust defence, great resources in midfield, and a powerful
forward pairing, they just have no obvious weaknesses.

Mabley: England! No, that was a joke. If neither England nor Japan can win it
then I’d rather it be Spain, but their path through the knockout stages is
tough and I have a feeling Dunga’s pragmatism will come up trumps for Brazil.

6. Which other teams will you be keeping an eye out
for?

Kagawa: Portugal.
Up front, Cristiano Ronaldo needs no introduction, but Nani of Manchester
United is very good as well, and depending on how well players like these
perform, this team could make a real impact on the World Cup. Even with the
Luis Figo generation, Portugal have often tended to play as if the whole world
is against them, but if they are less easily riled and can instead use their
individual players’ spirit to a more positive end, I think they will be very
interesting to watch.

Honda: As Japan’s
neighbours, I will be supporting South Korea too. It will also be interesting
to see how far Spain, as European champions, can go with such an attractive
brand of football. Finally, the United States have landed a good draw and have
already shown what they can do at last year’s Confederations Cup, so I can see
them doing well too.

Nemoto: I’ll be looking out for Denmark, and then of course Brazil. The Danish
players are all generally a good-looking bunch too – in that sense, I tend to
prefer Sweden, but unfortunately they didn’t qualify this time, so I’ll be
rooting for their neighbours instead.

Mabley: Argentina – purely because of the enigma they have for a manager. I’m
essentially hoping that Diego Maradona will explode come the end of June,
ignore all further tactical advice from Carlos Bilardo, and field every one of
his six forwards – even Martin Palermo – in the quarter final just because he
can. Aside from that, Holland, Denmark, and North Korea. It will be interesting
to see how Japanese and South Korean observers take to the Chollima.

7. Who will win the Golden Boot?

Kagawa: If England
are going to progress through the latter stages, then they will surely be
relying on Rooney for goals. Portugal will be most entertaining if Cristiano
Ronaldo can go on the rampage. But perhaps Didier Drogba, even if his team don’t
make it very far. He is the kind of player who can finish as top scorer by
hitting four goals in one game against weaker opposition early on.

Honda: Either
Wayne Rooney or Robin van Persie.

Nemoto: Either David Villa or Luis Fabiano.

Mabley: I fancy Villa to rattle in a few during the group stage and that could
be enough to see him through.

8. Are there any other players we should be watching?

Kagawa: From a
footballing perspective, critics around the world all tend to converge on
Spain, but I am looking forward to seeing if any of the six African
representatives can exploit their ‘African power’ and the physical strength of
their individual players. This is why I mentioned Drogba before – Samuel Eto’o
is a little too rounded for my liking. Aside from that, the South Koreans
always seem to find another level when they play Japan, but it would be nice to
see them adopt a similar approach no matter who the opponent.

Honda: Keisuke
Honda, Yoshito Okubo, and Takayuki Morimoto. These three simply have to perform
if Japan are going to make any progress. Okubo needs to be careful not to rise to
any provocation and pick up silly yellow cards.

Nemoto: Morimoto, and whoever plays in goal out of Seigo Narazaki and Eiji
Kawashima. Their performances are absolutely essential to Japan’s success.
Otherwise, Juan Sebastian Veron – the sexiest footballer in the entire
tournament. In my opinion, anyway.

Mabley: Keisuke Honda is absolutely the key man for Japan, and I really hope
that he will be given the freedom and the opportunity to cap his meteoric rise
over the past two years with a starring role at this World Cup. And, continuing
the North Korean theme, Jong Tae-Se. Despite ending up in the Group of Death,
he reckons he’s going to convert his J. League form into one goal a game in
South Africa.

9. Which team or player might not quite live up to everybody’s
expectations?

Kagawa: First of
all, I think that South Africa will be spurred on sufficiently by their local
support to ensure that they are no disappointment. But while journalists often
like to talk up Argentina because of Lionel Messi – and I happen to like
Argentinean football myself as well – Messi gets away with having a rather
dainty and luxurious touch because Barcelona are just such a good club team.
With teammates at Argentina who are a little rougher around the edges, you
wonder if he will have things quite as easy. Of course, he is the best player
in the world, so it would be great to see him performing in the latter stages,
but his coach this time is the one and only Diego Maradona. Having two such
geniuses in charge and central to the team could be quite difficult to manage
for Argentina, but then again, it is going to be very interesting for the rest
of us in all sorts of ways.

Honda: Cristiano
Ronaldo.

Mabley: Continuing on from what Kagawa-san said, I think that Messi, Ronaldo, and
Rooney could all suffer from having national sides that are nothing like as
fluent as their respective clubs. As far as teams are concerned, a big flop
could come from Group A but it won’t be the hosts – it’ll be France.

10. Finally, what are you most looking forward to
about the 2010 World Cup in South Africa?

Kagawa: Over the
years, football has continued to evolve. Individuals work harder than ever, and
the game is very ‘busy’ these days. Some people might not like it, but it is
this evolution that has brought us teams like the Barcelona of today. The
countries that have come to succeed in football are generally those that have
learned from such progress, taken players with their own different skills and
got them to work harder, and sought to make this sport more interesting than it
was before.

Along these
same lines, Africa is thought to be the place where mankind first originated
and learned to walk on two feet. Without learning to walk on two feet, we would
never have created football. I think it is an enormous occasion within the
entire history of football that the World Cup is coming here, to Africa, for
the first time. I’m looking forward to seeing the ways in which this World Cup
will prove that football has evolved to the next level – in terms of the
national teams, anyway – and any new kinds of organised play that might be on
show. I genuinely hope the football will be a step ahead of what we have seen
before, and that the teams from Africa – the origin of mankind – will play a
major part in this.

Honda: The
performances of the three players I mentioned before – Honda, Okubo, and
Morimoto.

Nemoto: First of all, I hope the tournament is a real success. Aside from that,
I’m looking forward to the words and deeds of Maradona, and the pretty Brazilian
girls in the stands!

Mabley: On a personal note, this will be the second World Cup I’ve covered but
the first that I’ve actually been to in the flesh. I agree with Kagawa-san that
it’s great for these tournaments to be taken to be taken to different countries
– of course, we have Euro 2012 in Poland/Ukraine and then Brazil 2014 to come
as well – and I can’t wait to see the South African take on football’s biggest
party for myself. I really hope it will be a competition that shuts the
pessimists up for good.

It is now just two days until the 2010 FIFA
World Cup finally gets under way in South Africa on Friday evening. Throughout
the tournament, the Football
Japan Minutecast will be online several times each week with previews and
reports of every single Japan game, plus a series of special features to be
broadcast direct from Johannesburg in early July as the knockout stages unfold.
Be sure not to miss it!

But while the hours and minutes before the
opening game are still ticking down, the World Cup wouldn’t be the World Cup
without a nice long list of predictions that we can all look back on in a
month’s time to see how wrong we were. I chatted last week with legendary
Japanese football writer Hiroshi
Kagawa – a veteran of nine World Cups and, at 85, the oldest active
sportswriter in the country – alongside SIX president Katsumi Honda and fellow Football
Japan writer Izumi Nemoto about our
hopes and expectations for South Africa 2010.

Kagawa: Things have been
pretty bad for a while, haven’t they? The biggest worry is that Japan haven’t
made any progress since securing qualification last year. If anything, we’ve
become a little worse. Yasuhito Endo looks tired and is clearly suffering from all
his exertions over the past two seasons. Shunsuke Nakamura, meanwhile, is
edging ever closer to his sell-by date. Of course, he is nearly 32 now, so it
is only normal, but his age is really beginning to show – not least in the
amount of injuries he is getting. These are the best two passers in the
country, so for them both to be on the wane is a real problem.

Nemoto: I’m worried about Nakamura’s condition as well. At least Yuji Nakazawa
seems to have recovered his form again somewhat after the Serbia game.

Mabley: After coming through Asian qualification more than a year ago, Okada’s
side have often resembled a second division team who vowed to remain loyal to
their attacking principles upon getting promoted, but came unstuck when up
against the big boys. The manager is finally starting to make changes, but
bizarrely, seems under great pressure not to from a somewhat naïve domestic
media.

2. After Cameroon, Japan will also be facing Holland
and Denmark in Group E. What will be the key to making it through to the
knockout stages?

Kagawa: Obviously, Japan will want to beat Cameroon. But at the very least, it
is important that they don’t lose, first of all. Like most of the African
teams, Cameroon have a lot of highly gifted individuals, but even a side as
good as them can make mistakes at the back. What we need to do is make sure
that we’re positioned to take advantage of this.

In the recent friendly with England, Japan showed
excellent rhythm in their play to force the corner kick that led to the opening
goal. Endo then pulled the ball across quite cleverly, but even before he did
so, Yuki Abe made a run to the near post to allow Marcus Tulio Tanaka to follow
in behind. Tulio has great attacking sense, and it was this moment before the
shot that created the chance to score.

Japan’s style is highly ‘rhythmical’ – both at corner
kicks and in our general play as well. In this case, England’s defenders
perhaps weren’t concentrating as well as they might have been, but that is
something that can and does happen in every game of football. If it happens
with Cameroon, and if Japan can take advantage, then we might just win 2-1 or
1-0. But at worst, if we can draw, then there is still a decent chance going
onwards.

Honda: The Cameroon game is important, but whatever happens there, Japan need
to ensure they go into the next game with plenty of confidence. Even if we
lose, there is no need to get overly depressed about the whole situation.

Nemoto: I agree. The first game is always important. But we all – including the
press – need to make sure that we don’t start thinking ‘well, that’s it then’
like we did in 2006 if, unfortunately, Japan do actually lose. The performances
of our goalkeepers will be key as well.

Mabley: The physical nature of their three opponents makes this a far from ideal
group for Japan, but ever since the draw was made, I’ve felt that the midfield
battles will be vital. Okada simply has to convince himself that a 4-1-2-2-1
(with Abe or Junichi Inamoto) that keeps the ball is a far better option
against stronger sides than a 4-2-3-1 that does not. Then, it’s a case of how
best to exploit Keisuke Honda’s talents in attacking areas.

3. Okada has (in)famously set a
target of reaching the last four. Is this at all realistic? If not, what would
be a more sensible objective?

Kagawa: If you
think about it logically, South Korea showed in our recent friendly that they
are a stronger side than Japan, but even their odds of actually winning the
World Cup are something like 200-1. And that’s a pretty fair assessment. But in
football, sometimes even weaker sides have a chance of beating more fancied
opponents. For sure, most people probably think the whole ‘last four’ idea is
pretty ridiculous, but no manager will ever go into a tournament with the intention
of losing. So I think this is a reasonably justified objective.

Once you reach the last four and it becomes a matter of determining the
actual champions, I think at this point the true depth of football within each
remaining country certainly does start to speak volumes. But until then, in a
short knockout competition, even the South Koreans in 2002 and the Japan side
at the 1968 Olympics managed to reach the semi-finals. It might look like
wishful thinking, and obviously Japan would have no chance of competing if it
were something like – say – the English Premier League, but then this is what
makes sport so interesting. Of course, most Japanese pundits just want to
criticise...

Honda: Japan have
already won games at the World Cup and made it out of their group in the past,
so as a next milestone, I don’t see anything wrong with targeting the
semi-finals either. I’ll never forget how, in 2002, we just capitulated against
Turkey in the last 16 once we’d achieved the ‘main target’ of qualifying from the
group.

Nemoto: Well, I wouldn’t say there’s zero chance of it happening... but
perhaps a more realistic possibility would be making it through the group?

Mabley: I don’t know whose fault this is, but I think the whole ‘last four’
thing has been allowed to get out of control to the point where it is now a
real millstone around the players’ necks. It’s all well and good aiming high in
private, but a little more discretion is required in public so that the supporters
and media remain realistic and behind their team. It would be a terrific
achievement to get past the group stage.

4. Ideals and objectives aside, how far will Japan really
make it this year?

Kagawa: It would be
a cause for true celebration if we could just make it past the first round,
since even at the earliest stage, Japan will only be able to win or even draw
these matches if we really play to our best. But unless Nakamura and Endo can
recover some form, I’m not sure it will happen...

Honda: Looking at
it objectively, we’ll probably be knocked out in the group phase. But each of
our three opponents will likely be thinking that they absolutely have to beat
Japan, and this mindset could prove to be our opportunity.

Nemoto: The last 16! I’m not giving up hope!

Mabley: Japan will need four points from the games with Cameroon and Denmark,
and then a certain amount of luck to reach the second round. I don’t think they
will disgrace themselves, but Okada’s tactical changes have probably come too
late to get them through.

We only have to look back four years to see how Italy’s bid for a first
world title since 1982 (see below) was almost undermined and overshadowed by the
biggest footballing scandal of the 21st century so far. In May 2006, Juventus
general manager Luciano Moggi followed the rest of his club’s board, plus the
president and vice-president of the FIGC (Italian Football Federation), in
resigning following allegations that a number of top Serie A clubs had attempted
to fix domestic matches by effectively choosing their own referees.

On 4 July – hours before an Italy squad containing 13 players from the
four teams implicated would face hosts Germany in a World Cup semi-final – the prosecutor
in the Calciopoli affair
announced his recommendation that Juventus be relegated to Serie C1, with Milan,
Lazio, and Fiorentina all sent down to the second tier. Unfazed, however,
Marcello Lippi’s national side scored twice in the
dying moments of extra time that evening, before going on to beat France on penalties
and be crowned as champions of the world for the fourth time five days later.
The clubs’ punishments were later reduced on appeal.

Having scored 60 goals in three seasons for Vicenza and starred during
Italy’s unusually free-spirited run to fourth place in Argentina ’78, Paolo
Rossi had the world at his feet when he joined Perugia in 1979, before losing
it all when implication in the following year’s Totonero betting
scandal saw the striker banned from all football for three years. Rossi
protested his innocence, and though the suspension was eventually cut short in
time for him to appear at España ’82, the long absence seemed to have cost him
his spark as Italy only edged out Cameroon in the first group stage on goals
scored.

But Enzo Bearzot kept his faith, and Rossi rewarded his manager in
stunning fashion with a magnificent hat-trick against the Brazil of Sócrates
and Zico in one of the World
Cup’s all-time great matches; a feat he then followed with a brace against
Poland in the last four and the opener against West Germany in the final. Italy won 3-1, and a
vindicated Paolo Rossi ended 1982 as a world champion and the winner of the
Ballon d’Or, World Soccer Player of the Year, and the World Cup’s Golden Shoe
and Golden Ball awards.

There may have been no scandal to label with Italian italics and Brazil may
have stood out as the best team in Japan and Korea by some way, but it’s often
forgotten that this century’s first world champions were in real disarray not
long beforehand. Former Jubilo Iwata boss Luiz Felipe Scolari took over from future
Vissel Kobe manager Emerson Leão in June 2001, with the Seleção outside
the South American qualification places after 12 matches of a total 18.

Though Brazil did just about scrape through their worst ever qualifying campaign
with nine points from the final six games, few gave Scolari’s side much chance
of matching favourites France and Argentina; especially when captain Emerson
dislocated his shoulder in training (while fooling around as a goalkeeper) and
caused their entire
tactical blueprint to be rewritten. No fear – the three Rs of Ronaldo, Rivaldo, and Ronaldinho scored 15
goals between them as Brazil’s famous yellow jersey earned its fifth star,
while both France and Argentina fell at the first hurdle.

Sadly, there was no happy ending at Wembley, but even this most
quintessentially English of glorious failures was an unlikely triumph given
what had gone before. Having failed to qualify for USA ’94, England’s opening
game as European Championship hosts against Switzerland in 1996 was their first
competitive fixture in 31 months since a goal in the ninth second
by Davide Gualtieri of San
Marino had given us Graham Taylor’s last ever ‘do I not like that’. The
friendly results under successor Terry Venables had been unspectacular too,
with ten wins in 20 games capped by a farcical
1-0 ‘success’ over the Hong Kong Golden Select XI that was marred by tales
of ‘dentist’s
chair’ drinking binges and smashed up Cathay Pacific cabins.

Perhaps the most famous unlikely heroes of all, but while everyone knows
about how an out-of-shape Denmark squad were only invited to replace war-torn
Yugoslavia two weeks before the 1992 European Championship finals began, their
story actually goes back much further than that. A genuinely great Danish
Dynamite side had dazzled the world at the 1984
tournament and at Mexico
’86 with their explosive
attacking and carefree
style (not to mention a wonderfully kitsch World Cup song), but by
the time Italia ’90 kicked off without them, inspirational coach Sepp Piontek
had followed star names like Allan Simonsen, Søren Lerby, Morten and Jesper
Olsen, Frank Arnesen, and Preben
Elkjær Larsen out of the exit door.

Piontek’s successor, Richard Møller Nielsen, proved a hugely unpopular
appointment at first, as the team’s best two outfield players – the Laudrup brothers,
Michael and Brian – quit amidst wide-scale revolt against his underwhelming
tactics and results. The tragic circumstances in the Balkans provided a
reprieve not only for Denmark, but for Møller Nielsen and the
younger Laudrup as well, and while Peter
Schmeichel and Henrik Larsen inspired a succession of unlikely wins over
France, Holland, and Germany, there was even time
to revive the spirit of the Eighties when the Danes flocked en masse to a
Swedish McDonald’s just two days before their semi-final.

PROFILE

名前：Ben Mabley

Ben Mabley is an English writer and translator proud to share a birthplace with the sport he loves.

Born in Somerset, he graduated with a degree in Japanese Studies from the University of Oxford in 2005, investigating the role of professional football clubs within Japanese society for his undergraduate dissertation. He combines his translation work with the more enjoyable task of writing about football, and is currently compiling a book on his experiences with the hardcore supporters of his local J-League team.

Despite being already 25, a paltry 5’ 7” in height, and not having been a member of a football club for a good three years, Ben still dreams of being discovered as the new Peter Schmeichel. Should that fail, he hopes to make use of his talent to predict with eerie accuracy what English football commentators will say before they have actually opened their mouths.