APC, PDP and battle for 2015

Despite its victory at the governorship election, the Osun State All Progressives Congress (APC) has another hurdle to cross at next year’s parliamentary polls, if the pattern of results announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is sustained. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the challenges ahead.

Osun State All Progressives Congress (APC) has survived the federal onslaught. But, it has more hurdles to cross as next year’s elections into the House of Assembly and the National Assembly draw near. Although Governor Rauf Aregbesola has secured a second term, the party, according to analysts, must not sleep on guard.

As an observer put it, “the euphoria of victory should wither immediately because there more challenges ahead and more work to do”. The next battle is the parliamentary election. The outcome of the governorship poll has implications for the next contest.

Political watchers are of the opinion that how the election was fought played an important role. Other factors that played an important role was the candidates’ origin. While the PDP flag bearer, Senator Iyiola Omisore won massively in four local governments in Ife, Aregbesola got a massive endorsement at Ilesa, his native local government.

According to the final results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the APC got 394, 684 votes. The PDP had 292, 747 votes. The 101,937 margin is a bit wide, but it means that the APC has a sizeable support. The APC has overwhelming support in 22 local governments. The PDP has roots in eight councils. To have a breakthrough at the parliamentary election, not only should the APC guard its strongholds jealously, it must also work hard to regain the confidence of the eight states.

In Bolorunduro Local Government Area, the PDP had 5,035 votes. The APC had 4,891 votes. In Odo-Otin, both parties ran neck. The margin between 11,950 scored by the APC and 12, 902 got by the PDP is 1,048. Many factors will influence the parliamentary poll, which is more local. But, the pattern suggests that the PDP has a bright chance at the parliamentary poll like the APC. In Isokan, the APC had 9,758 and the PDP 10,028. In Ayedire, APC had 7,724 and PDP 7813. This means that the two parties have substantial influence and support in these areas.

Statistically, it could be inferred that Ife has slipped away from the APC. In 2011 elections, the four local governments supported the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). But, the four local governments-Ife North, East, Central and South voted massively for the PDP. If this trend is sustained in 2015, then, the APC would have to rely on votes from Ijesa axis to neutralise the effects of the bloc votes from Ife.

In Ife Central, PDP got 24,555. It was a wide departure from APC’s 9,680. In Ife East, PDP got 20,831. The APC polled 13,821. In Ife North, the margin is not too wide. While the PDP secured 9,841 votes, the APC got 8,603. In Ife South, the PDP got 12, 811 votes and APC had 7,325. The margin is wide.