investor sentiment

Markets hate uncertainty more than bad news, which is one reason they've swooned: No one can predict the long-term economic effects of Japan's earthquake or Middle Eastern upheaval. But technical analysis looks at the patterns deeper than the daily news, and the charts suggest a real bear ahead.

A new Bloomberg poll shows 68% of investors say Obama's policies are "detrimental to the U.S. investment climate." That's despite soaring corporate earnings and a huge bounceback in stock prices during his administration. Somewhere, there's a disconnect.

For a host of reasons, when the dollar spikes, stocks drop, and when the dollar falls, stocks soar. Right now, with dollar sentiment reaching maximum bearishness, contrarians are preparing for the next seesaw shift. If the dollar rises again, stocks could reverse.

Investor sentiment is a remarkably accurate contrarian indicator: When investors become exuberantly bullish, the market is nearing a high, and when investors are excessively bearish, market lows are a good bet. Be warned: Right now, the charts show the sort of optimism that precedes a fall.