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Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

Originally Posted by Brutus

From what?

From himself.

"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

I've posted the numbers before, but Leake's 75-pitch-plus splits relative to his own averages are actually above average.

Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though?

"Since I've been with the Reds in 1989, we've never had a farm system this loaded," Bowden said. "If we were the New York Yankees and had unlimited dollars, we could have traded for Colon, (Jeff) Weaver, Rolen, (Cliff) Floyd, (Kenny) Rogers and Finley and gotten them all -- and still held onto our top five prospects. That's an amazing statement."

Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

Originally Posted by Brutus

I'm still not sure what you're getting at. OPS and wOBA both take into account both OBP and slugging. Sure, OBP carries slightly more weight than does slugging, but that's accounted for in wOBA and his career wOBA against RHP is .349. That's very, very good. The average CF in the majors is less than .330.

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

Originally Posted by Brutus

From what?

From the bench...should be playing this series...no real reason why he's not in the lineup other than Dusty being Dusty with the veterans. DiDi had a great series in Miami especially Sunday and with Cozart coming back this weekend the Cubs series would of been a great time to see what he could do with multiple starts. We all know what Valdez can do.

Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

Are either of those numbers, before and after 75 pitches, genuinely good though?

You could do a heck of a lot worse than Leake. Heck, Leake would have been the ace of several of the Reds' staffs the last 10 years.

But the point is that some folks here are under the impression that Leake falls off a cliff late in the games. The numbers don't suggest that at all, especially relative to how most pitchers fare later in games.

Interesting anecdote about Leake's homers though...

He's given up 17.8 percent of his flyballs as home runs. In the past 10 years of all starting pitchers in any season, only five guys have given up a larger percentage.

All five, by the way, went on to give up a percentage at least 5 points lower the following season. That suggests that Leake has likely been a little snake bitten in that he's really not giving up many flyballs, but an inordinate number are leaving the yard.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: 9/19/12 - Reds at Cubs

I want a high OBP player. I don't care if the OBP or wOBA formulas say Heisey has other attributes. I want a high OBP player. Heisey isn't.

And tonight he botched a play in LF and just hit into a DP. On top of everything!

These formulas pretty closely resemble how runs are scored. Not sure why you're totally willing to ignore slugging for two dozen more OBP points.

I'd love to have a .350 OBP guy too. But if he slugs .300, that's not an upgrade.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

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