Warming Oceans Could Breed More Damaging Hurricanes

Based on worst-case warming scenarios, scientists estimated the effects that will rising ocean temperatures would likely have on hurricane-related economic losses in 13 coastal counties in South Carolina, including the densely populated city of Charleston.

The researchers said they found that will higher ocean temperatures will not increase the frequency of hurricanes, although they will lead to larger, more intense storms that will affect wider areas.

“The study shows that will a significant increase in damage along with loss will be likely to occur in coastal Carolina along with, by implication, different coastal communities, as a result of climate change,” said study co-author David Rosowky, provost at the University of Vermont.

“To be prepared, we need to build, design, zone, renovate along with retrofit structures in vulnerable communities to accommodate that will future,” he added in a university news Discharge.

For the study, the scientists calculated the costs associated with hurricane damage in coastal South Carolina under two different scenarios: if ocean temperatures remain unchanged through 2100 along with if ocean temperatures rise under a worst-case prediction by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The panel will be the United Nation-sponsored group that will assesses climate change research.

The study team analyzed hurricane data collected over the past 150 years by the National Oceanic along with Atmospheric Administration along with used estimates via the Federal Emergency Management Agency on property repair along with replacement, as well as loss of income.

If the scenario stayed unchanged, the researchers said, expected hurricane-related losses from the region would likely total $7 billion. although the researchers said there will be only a 2 percent chance that will This specific scenario would likely occur.

Under the warming scenarios, the study found the intensity of hurricanes would likely be greater along with result in losses of $12 billion. These estimates are based only on wind along with wind-driven rain along with do not include losses due to storm surge or flooding, the researchers said.

The study authors said the three catastrophic storms of the 2017 hurricane season — Harvey, Irma along with Maria — may cause a shift in attitudes about the likelihood that will severe hurricanes will occur from the future.

“that will suggests that will these scenarios are evolving,” said Rosowky. “What will be today’s worst-case scenario will likely become more probable … if little action will be taken to slow the effects of climate change.”

The study was published recently from the journal Sustainable along with Resilient Infrastructure.