Iranian President's Chances Of Reelection Increase

The uncertainty over whether or not conservative forces in Iran will throw their support behind incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad's bid for a second presidential term is dissipating.

On April 25, a coalition of 14 conservative and clerical parties and groups announced that they will indeed support Ahmadinejad's candidacy in the June 12 presidential election.

Coalition secretary Habib Asgarowladi said the group has "conveyed [to Ahmadinejad] some concerns" on the part of the clergy and political personalities.

"But the consensus is," he added, "that, under current conditions, Mr. Ahmadinejad best represents the thoughts and beliefs of the Imam [the founder of the Islamic republic, the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini] and the Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]."

Under the Islamic republic's constitution, the supreme leader has the ultimate decision-making power in all major political and strategic issues. Ahmadinejad has not yet officially registered to run for a second presidential term.

Supreme Leader's Backing

Over the past few months, some conservative political figures who supported Ahmadinejad four years ago have voiced concern and criticism of his policies, especially regarding his management of the economy and the government administration.

Ahmad Ghabel, a political analyst from Tehran, tells RFE/RL's Radio Farda that it appears that Ahmadinejad now has the final and full support of Khamenei as the sole candidate of the conservative "principlists."

"If the principlists could sense Ayatollah Khamenei's doubts on Ahmadinejad's candidacy or any leaning on his [Khamenei's] side toward a different person," Ghabel says, "somebody else from among the principlists would certainly enter the stage."

All the same, some conservative groups and individual politicians who are staunch supporters of the supreme leader, such as the Militant Clergy Association and parliament speaker Ali Larijani, have not yet made any clear statement about their preferred candidate.

A professor at the University of Tehran, who asked to remain anonymous, agrees that Khamenei appears to have made up his mind and "Ahmadinejad seems to be the one."

"I believe that in the inner circle of the supreme leader, they think [U.S. President Barack] Obama has not taken yet any concrete conciliatory action, and with the threat of harsher sanctions against Iran, they believe the new U.S. administration is basically following the Bush policies with nicer words," the professor says.

"A hard-line and aggressively anti-Iranian government has come to power in Israel," he adds. "And look at the situation in Pakistan and the worsening violence in Iraq. Khamenei doesn't want to send a pigeon to confront hawks in the region in the next four years."

Abbas Djavadi is associate director of broadcasting with RFE/RL. The views expressed in this commentary are his own, and do not necessarily reflect those of RFE/RL