Measuring Delinquency

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2Sources for Measuring Crime & DelinquencyOfficial Data=Archived data held by an institution or agencyExamples: Uniform Crime Reports, Juvenile Court DataSelf-Report Data=Information received from the subjects under studySelf-Reported Victimization: National Crime Victimization SurveySelf-Reported Delinquency: National Youth Survey

3Ways of Measuring Crime & DelinquencyRaw Numbers: Simple count of individual eventsRates: Sum of Individual Events Compared to Population at LargeNo. of Crimes * 100,000=# Crimes/100,000 in populationNo. of People in PopulationAllows for accurate comparison across groups, locations, etc.Percent Change: Proportion of change in individual events from one time to anotherT2-T1 * 100%= % Percent change from Time 1 to Time 2T1

5Interpreting the NumbersTyranny of small numbersSmall increase in small numbers results in large percentage increases100 crimes10 juveniles +7  Increase 70%90 adults  +45  Increase 50%Impact of crime and actual nature of the trend can be easily exaggerated

6Other Misleading Uses of DataLong-term trends v. short-term trendShort-term increase may not be dramatic if viewed in the long-termComparisonsUsing the lowest points as a base year for comparisonNot using a comparison group

7Official Data: Uniform Crime ReportsThe Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) began collecting data from law enforcement agencies on number of crimes reported to police in 1929The UCR covers over 95% of the United States and reports:No. of Crimes Reported to PoliceNo. & characteristics of Offenders ArrestedNo. of Crimes Cleared by PoliceAdditional Information Provided about Homicide, Police Department Characteristics, Crime Consequences

9StrengthsBest measure of crime across the nation that we currently haveValidity for certain crimesProblems tend to be stable over time, allowing trends and patterns to surfaceEasy to access and inexpensiveAllows for city and regional trend comparisonsProvides detailed information on reporting patterns, who is arrested, and homicides

10Weaknesses Doesn’t capture unreported crime--validityOnly most serious crime is reportedDoes not include federal offensesNo. arrested is not equal to the actual number of youths who committed crime—group arrests overestimate juvenile crimeUCR is based on summary data that does not allow closer inspection into each arrestQuality of data questionable:Underreporting/overreporting by law enforcementVariability of police practices/Use of arrest

11Future of the UCR The National Incident-Based Reporting SystemLaunched by the FBI in 1988 for eventual replacement of the Uniform Crime Reports systemCollects a wide range of information on victims, offenders, and circumstances for more offenses than the UCROffenses tracked in NIBRS include violent crimes (e.g., homicide, assault, rape, robbery), property crimes (e.g., theft, arson, vandalism, fraud, embezzlement), and crimes against society (e.g., drug offenses, gambling, prostitution).Collects information on multiple victims, multiple offenders, and multiple crimes that may be part of the same episode.Not yet representative across the country—In 1997, 12 States were participating

12VictimizationTwo primary sources of data: National Crime Victimization Survey and the National Incident-Based Reporting SystemThe National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)Victim self-report survey conducted by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census on behalf of the U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics for the past 20 yearsData obtained from a nationally representative sample of roughly 43,000 households comprising nearly 100,000 personsRemain in sample for 3 yearsInterviewed every 6 monthsAll individuals 12 and older are interviewed about the frequency, characteristics and consequences of criminal victimizations they experienced within a particular time frameExamines the following crimes: Rape, sexual assault, robbery, assault, theft, household burglary, and motor vehicle theftUse data to compare with UCR trends as well as estimate the likelihood of victimization for the population and segments of the population (e.g., women, the elderly, members of various racial groups, city dwellers, or other groups)Sources: Finkelhor, D. & Ormrod, R. (2000). Characteristics of Crimes Against Juveniles. Washington, DC: Department of Justice, Office of Juvenile Delinquency & Prevention; National Crime Victimization Survey; National Incident-Based Reporting System

13Strengths of NCVSAllows “check” of UCR (NCVS specific)—measures “dark figure of crime”Collects a lot of information necessary to understand crime and victimization but not found in official crime reportsNot subject to political agendas (necessarily)

14Weaknesses of NCVS & Self-ReportLyingExaggeration/EmbarrassmentMemory and accurate time periodCost and accessibilityHidden Populations or missing populationsInaccurate informationAdministration of the Interview (face to face v. phone)Refusal rates

15Self-Report Data Monitoring the FutureRandom sample of schools12th graders in each selected school participateSub-sample is followed over timeNational Youth Survey: Longitudinal, cohort study of juveniles throughout the teen-age yearsStarted 1976 with year olds who were followed until 1993 (27-33 years old)Measured delinquency, victimization, and various theoretical variablesProvide much more information about the various relationshipsThe Youth Development StudyRecent effort to follow cohorts of youth in Richmond, VA, Denver, CO, and Rochester, NYHigh-risk youth samples

16Self-Report DifferencesContrary to arrest rates, there was no sharp increase in violence in self-report data, indicating arrest data may have exaggerated violent crime trendAttention to the role of enforcement trends, discrimination, and paternalismMore youth commit crime than are arrestedFemales commit crime at a rate more similar to males than seen in official statisticsThe more delinquent a youth is, the greater the likelihood he/she will be victimizedSocioeconomic status is a better predictor of delinquency than race—the offending differential reduces substantially when SES is accounted for