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Where House Democrats could lose

As Republicans eye their largest House majority in a generation, their path to history runs through roughly 15 Democratic-held districts.

Buoyed by President Obama’s deep unpopularity, frustration with the economy and

ObamaCare, and with help from a GOP-friendly, gerrymandered map, the number of Republican wins could top double digits on election night.

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The party needs to gain 11 seats in order to hit its “Drive to 245” goal for expanding its House majority. A handful of losses are possible, thanks mostly to weak GOP incumbents, and Republicans have been careful in the final days to downplay expectations.

Still, Democrats are preparing for mounting losses on Tuesday night. Here’s the most likely places where those could occur.

As with Matheson’s district, this seat seemed like a sure GOP takeover as soon as centrist Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.) announced his retirement. Former state Sen. David Rouzer (R), who lost to McIntyre by just fewer than 700 votes in 2012, is now set to be the next congressman.

New York’s 21st District (Open):

The retirement of Rep. Bill Owens (D-N.Y.) gives the GOP its third likely pickup opportunity. Republican Elise Stefanik, 30, is poised to become the youngest member of Congress in either chamber and the youngest woman ever elected to Congress. National Democrats have pulled money from this district and essentially ceded the district to Republicans.

Rep. William Enyart. Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn has been a drag on this Democratic freshman down-ballot. His party tried early on to paint state Rep. Mike Bost(R) as “meltdown Mike” for his explosive speeches in Springfield that became YouTube sensations, but now even many Democrats expect the Republican will win.

Rep. Scott Peters. This race has proven to be one of the nastiest of the cycle. The GOP candidate, former San Diego city councilman Carl DeMaio, is under fire for sexual harassment allegations from two former campaign staffers. DeMaio has blamed Peters’s campaign for the accusations, claiming they stemmed from discrimination over his sexual orientation. Still, the GOP nominee and the freshman Democrat are neck-and-neck in recent polling. If he wins, DeMaio could be the first openly gay Republican elected to Congress.

Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter faces a rematch against former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.). After losing in 2010 to Guinta, she defeated him again 2012. But the nationwide drag from Obama could result in another reversal.

Minnesota’s 8th District:

Rep. Rick Nolan. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began to pour money into this district late into the campaign to help save Nolan, from GOP businessman Stewart Mills. Nolan served three terms, from 1975 to 1981, and returned in 2013 after a three-decade hiatus. But Mills, anointed “the Brad Pitt of the Republican Party,” has kept the race competitive. Green Party candidate Ray “Skip” Sandman could also cut into Nolan’s base of support and help Mills prevail.

Illinois’s 10th District:

Rep. Brad Schneider. Like Enyart, Schneider’s reelection prospects could be bogged down by the state’s governor. Schneider won this district only by about a percentage point in 2012 and faces a rematch against former Rep. Bob Dold (R-Ill.) and the two are deadlocked in polls.