NCAA basketball in the wild

It’s that time of year again where I care about college basketball for three weeks and then forget it even exists.

I have collected data on all of the games played so far (through last nights 6OT thriller) and I use some standard modeling techniques to come up with a ranking. Last year I accurately predicted all four of the final 4 (but so did everyone in America), both teams in the finals, and the champion. I also went 29 of 32 in the first round and my bracket finished in the top 1% of all brackets on Yahoo. (Of course all that means is that I will have a dismal year this year.)

Right now (2:17 pm EDT Friday 3/13/2009) here are my thoughts on the NCAA tournament (These will change as more games come in):
Go ahead and compare my predictions with ESPN’s, CBS’s, and Sports Illustrated’s picks (Of course some of those predicted brackets are old).

Try to bear in mind that I am not trying to predict what the committee will do, I am trying to predict what the committee should do. I don’t really think the selection committee will seed West Virginia as a four. And I have a hunch that Penn State will actually get in, but I’ll definitely pick them to lose first round.

The 4 number 1 seed should be: North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and UConn

With the 2 seeds going to Duke, Louisville, Michigan St., and Wake Forest

Three seeds: Washington, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Syracuse

Four Seeds: Villanova, Missouri, UCLA, West Virginia

Last four teams in: Maryland, Auburn, Boston College, Tennessee

First four teams out: Florida, Virgina Tech, New Mexico, Providence

Next four teams out:USC, Northwestern, Penn St, Kentucky

Conference Breakdown:

ACC – 7

Big East – 7

Big Ten – 7

Big 12 – 6

Pac 10 – 5

SEC – 3

Mountain West – 3

Horizon League – 2

Over-rated teams that will get in: LSU and Butler

Under-rated teams that will get in: West Virginia, Illinois, Utah, BYU and Texas

Once the dust settles, I’ll re-evaluate and post my picks on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.