Friday PM

Saturday: Breezy and relatively mild today. I’m looking thru the new data. The European is colder for late week next week and has all snow here next Thurs. night/Friday. If you plan on being out late Saturday evening/night, stay up with the latest forecasts. I want to highlight the possibility of strong winds Saturday night especially. We could easily see gusts to 40 mph inland and 50 mph at Lake Michigan as the Arctic front comes thru, along with some light snow. Again the models don’t print out much. The NAM has steady winds of 26 mph for G.R. for a few hours and a steady 30 mph for Muskegon. The GFS has winds up to a steady 35 mph at Lake Michigan. Roads could get slick and the combination of wind, snow, falling temperatures freezing up the roads quickly and poor visibility could make for some challenging travel. This would occur around 11 PM – 3 AM, so it may not be that bad early Saturday evening. The GFS has steady light snow from Sunday pretty much thru Tues. night. ALSO: Friday AM snowcover: trace G.R., 1″ Lansing, Big Rapids 2″ Baldwin, Scottville, 4″ Cadillac, Gaylord, 9″ Newberry,, Marquette, 15″ Grand Marais, 16″ Atlantic Mine. There’s a Gale Watch for Lake Michigan. From the NWS FRI. morning discussion: “SNOW SHOWER INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO 10K FEET OR MORE. NAM BUFKIT PROFILE AT SOUTH HAVEN LOOKS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR HEAVY SNOW…”

Australia’s had a couple of hot days, but much of the time temperatures have been near to slightly cooler than average. Sydney, Australia in the last week has had 3 days warmer than average, 3 days cooler than average and one day exactly average. You can look at monthly temperatures at Weather Underground and average temperatures at Accu-Weather (Professional).

“The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.

bigD – even your first link (of woefully “adjusted” temperatures) shows temperatures flat for the past decade. Here’s a NASA graph that shows the same thing: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif You’re about the only person on Earth who hasn’t acknowledged the obvious. Even James Hansen has had to backtrack:

“The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade…” – James Hansen et al.

Heat Records are NOT “falling worldwide”. It’s been colder than average over much of the globe…inc. most of Europe and Asia. Now the cold is coming here in the areas east of the Rockies.

You can check worldwide record high and low temperatures here: http://coolwx.com/record/ Today, for example, I’m seeing just 2 worldwide record high temperatures and both stations have a record of less than 40 years.

Channel 17′s futurecast looks good to me. Constant moderate to heavy snow for Muskegon, Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, and northern Berrien counties from Sunday evening through Tuesday. Also I see both channel 3 & 17 have decreased their temps for Tuesday to 13° & 14°, and channel 17° has a low of -2° where it could clear out Tuesday night.

Channel 13′s snowfall forecast model gives me…wait for it…2″ by Monday night. Their highest amount on the whole map was 4.6″ near South Haven. Every other channel predicts that much or more by Sunday night.

With wind the temps will be about the same on both sides of the state. One difference would be if the low next weekend is closer to the east side of the state that would make it some what warmer over there.
Slimjim

I fully expect somebody with a name like “Tony from Guam” to get on here and yell at everybody for being mean to his/her cousin(s) from Ludington, Twin Lake, OKC, and wherever all the personalities live.

Well, the GFS goes out further in time, so it is picking up on when the flow goes more westerly and gives snow to GR. The NAM only goes to 84 hours. If indeed the flow goes more westerly, that old shut the snow off in Berrien County.

Also, essentially the NAM is showing heavier snow, considering it only goes out to 84.

Either way I’m pretty content right now since I’m in area of the highest snowfall predicted. It sure helps being in a snowbelt area for NW, WNW, and W winds, so even if/when the winds change the snow should stay in my area.

bigDaddy’s reputation is already shot. He’s a proven liar. He lied when he said that Romney was a polygamist. We corrected the lie. He has to lie, because he can’t win with the truth. He hides anonymously in the tall grass here on the blog (and other forums)…he runs to vote in online polls. He’s gotten desperate because he’s losing the war. None other than “Handcuffs” Hansen was forced to admit that global temperatures are flat:

“The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing. – James Hansen et al. (this is from Dr. Judith Curry’s blog).

Where on Earth did you get 12% from??!! 73% of the Earth is covered by water…so at 12% you’re saying half the land area of the Earth is the U.S.!! LOL! You have to count the oceans! Australia is 1.49% of the Earth’s surface and the contiguous U.S. is 1.9% (not counting Alaska – which has been colder than average, so if you count Alaska, the U.S. hasn’t been so “hot”).

Studies found the European heat wave was caused by a strong anticyclone at both the surface and aloft, a decaying El Nino and an unusually active W. African Monsoon.

The main point is that overall global temperatures have been flat for a decade. Even James Hansen has been dragged, screaming and kicking to reality:

“The five-year mean global temperature has been flat for the last decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slow down in the growth rate of net climate forcing.” – James Hansen et al.