Thanks for choosing mmm-online.com Sign up for your FREE account now and join the thousands of other healthcare marketing professionals who rely on us for all the latest industry news and innovative ideas for direct and digital strategy. Simply fill out the fields below.

What the clinical trials found: The Phase III Confirm data replicated the robust efficacy seen in the Define trial, with BG-12 reducing relapse rates by 44% for the twice-a-day administration. CONFIRM, while not designed as a head-to-head, had a Copaxone arm, and Copaxone had a lower-than-expected 29% reduction in relapse rate. The interferons are generally in the 30-50% range.

inThought Approvability Index and Comment: 84%. BG-12 is likely to become the preferred oral agent for MS, beating out Novartis's Gilenya (fingolimod) on safety and ease of use. BG-12 is also likely to take market share from Biogen and Élan's Tysabri (natalizumab). We expect neither BG-12 nor Gilenya to significantly impact the current market for interferons or Copaxone, at least until the agents have several years on the market without major safety issues. Estimated approval: July 2012 (Source: Wolters Kluwer inThought).

inThought revenue forecast: $2.1 billion in peak sales by 2018.

What the analysts are saying: BG-12 will be an important player, and the fact that it is looking better than Copaxone, which is the market leader and is a daily injection, bodes well for an oral product, even one that's not once-a-day. It's hitting on some unmet needs, including better safety and tolerability. Gilenya has had strong uptake, and we can expect BG-12, which doesn't have the monitoring issues of Gilenya, to have good uptake as well, especially if, down the road, it's placed in a first-line therapy position and challenges Copaxone. Biogen Idec already sells Avonex, the leading interferon product, and Tysabri, so its sales force has a solid reputation among neurologists. —Louise Gillis, assoc. VP, research & consulting, GfK HealthCare

Bapineuzumab Pfizer/Johnson & Johnson

Indication: Alzheimer's disease (Phase III)

What the clinical trials found: A Phase II study showed some signs of efficacy and higher risk of a form of brain swelling called vasogenic edema, at least in ApoE4 carriers. Radiographic data looking at bapineuzumab's effect on plaque were supportive of an effect but not overwhelmingly positive.

inThought Approvability Index and Comment: 33%. There is evidence that bapineuzumab, which targets A-beta amyloid plaque, slows the progression, but treatment prior to cognitive decline may be required for clinical benefit. Estimated approval: April 2014 (Source: Wolters Kluwer inThought).

inThought revenue forecast: $4.4 billion in peak sales by 2018

What the analysts are saying: Clinicians are intrigued by this drug's mechanism of action in preventing amyloid plaques from forming, or reducing those formed. But the jury is still out as to whether it translates to the silver bullet the market is looking for: something that halts disease progression. —Marite Talbergs, SVP, research & consulting, GfK HealthCare

KEY NEUROLOGY PRODUCTS IN THE PIPELINE

To see this extended list of other Neurology products in a separate window, click here.

Did you miss January's Top 40 Healthcare Transformers
issue? Read how these inventors, strategists, entrepreneurs and wonks are challenging, disrupting and otherwise transforming the healthcare business. And join us April 30 to honor them at the Transforming Healthcare Dinner. Click here.