Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

NFL Week 17 Picks

Game

APR

SRS

Line

Chiefs @Broncos

Broncosρ=1.5566

Broncosδ=22.9

Broncos-16

Cardinals @49ers

49ersρ=1.3519

49ersδ=13.1

49ers-16½

Eagles @Giants

Giantsρ=1.2530

Giantsδ=12.7

Giants-7

Dolphins @Patriots

Patriotsρ=1.2014

Patriotsδ=13.8

Patriots-10

Rams @Seahawks

Seahawksρ=1.1852

Seahawksδ=12.6

Seahawks-10½

Buccaneers @Falcons

Falconsρ=1.1598

Falconsδ=7.9

Falcons-4½

Bears @Lions

Bearsρ=1.1384

Bears*δ=10.0

Bears-3

Jaguars @Titans

Titansρ=1.1297

Titansδ=1.1

Titans-4

Raiders @Chargers

Chargers*ρ=1.1166

Chargersδ=9.1

Chargers-10

Cowboys @Redskins

Redskins*ρ=1.0622

Redskinsδ=2.2

Redskins-3

Packers @Vikings

Packersρ=1.0591

Packers*δ=4.8

Packers-3

Browns @Steelers

Steelers*ρ=1.0483

Steelersδ=3.6

Steelers-10

Texans @Colts

Texansρ=1.0414

Texans*δ=10.6

Texans-7

Jets @Bills

Jetsρ=1.0290

Jets*δ=3.1

Bills-3½

Ravens @Bengals

Bengals*ρ=1.0235

Ravens*δ=1.6

Bengals-2½

Panthers @Saints

Saints*ρ=1.0219

Saintsδ=1.4

Saints-5½

Comments:

3 games with no lines as of Wednesday morning. As usual, I
will update these later in the week (assuming the status
changes). Update: finally done!

As usual, APR and SRS do not take into account teams that have
clinched their playoff seed and have nothing to play for.

That said, there's still a lot of teams with something to play
for. The seeding of the top 4 teams in the AFC is still to be
decided. On the NFC side, only the Falcons have their seed
clinched, and there are still two open playoff spots.

There's also a surprising amount of agreement in the picks. I
assume the Line is taking the Bills over the Jets because of the
McElroy effect.

The Ravens could theoretically move up to the #3 seed, but
either way they (and the Bengals) will be playing on wildcard
weekend. Thus, that game is likely to be a battle of the back-ups
most of the way, so taking the home team there makes as much sense
as anything.

Your probably-meaningless stat of the week: the Packers
are 19-3 in week 17.
As you might expect, these games cover the range of
possibilities, from resting their players last year, to a
must-win game in 2010, to a very bad team playing out the season
in 2005.

The Packers have a chance to clinch the #2 seed and the bye
week that goes with it, and so will certainly be playing for the
win this week 17.