More African elephants are being killed by poachers than are being born each year and some populations may be perilously close to extinction, according to one of the most scientific analyses yet.

The African continent’s elephant population is declining by 2 per cent a year, a number that is unsustainable, said George Wittemyer, assistant professor in the department of fish, wildlife and conservation biology at Colorado State University and one of the authors of the study.

The proportion of elephants killed for their ivory has climbed from 25 per cent of all deaths just a decade ago to about 65 per cent of all deaths today, a percentage that could lead to the extinction of many populations.

While it’s hard to ascertain the exact number of elephants in the wild in Africa, the World Wildlife Fund has said there are between 470,000 and 690,000.

Some experts will not put it beyond 400,000.

Researchers used a new mathematical method based on more than a decade of studying natural deaths and illegal killings among elephants at Kenya’s Samburu National Reserve to reach this conclusion.

The same method was used with carcass data from international monitors that was extrapolated across the continent.

“What came out was disastrous,” said Wittemyer.

Elephant tusk — ivory — is prized in some Asian countries, especially China, and clamping down on its trade has proven tough because it is fuelled by the booming middle class, which has more money to spend, causing prices to soar. Many countries have tightened security in protected areas and recruited more rangers to keep poachers at bay, but killing elephants is a risk that many in impoverished countries are willing to take.

“Even heritage parks like Garamaba in the Democratic Republic of Congo is under serious threat of illegal killings,” said Wittemyer.

“The majority of populations are declining,” said Wittemyer, adding that 75 per cent of populations in Africa are on the decline. “Some we may have lost already, some will take several decades.”

The study also found that the number of pachyderms killed in recent years is higher than previously estimated.

Data from the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) show that about 25,000 elephants may have been culled across Africa in 2011 based on about four dozen sites being monitored. But this study showed that about 8 per cent of the population was killed by poachers in 2011 — that extrapolates to around 40,000 elephants illegally killed when the entire continent is taken into account.

(Experts consider the year 2011 as the worst for elephants.)

But elephant killings are not the same across the continent. The highest death rate is in Central Africa while East Africa — Tanzania and Kenya — is not far behind. In South Africa, poachers have been targeting rhinos but have yet to begin killing elephants.

Unlike Asian elephants, where only the males bear tusks, both male and female African elephants are targets for poachers, said Colman O’Criodain, wildlife trade specialist at WWF International.

“Increasingly what we are seeing, especially in Central Africa, is massacres of entire herds by armed gangs.”

(The one piece of good news is that some populations, like in Botswana, are well-protected and safe.)

The future of elephants in Central Africa is alarming, he said.

But for now, O’Criodain pointed out, the large savannah populations of southern Africa are increasing.

“How this will change if other populations are wiped out? … (That) remains to be seen.”

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