NABE economists divided over Fed tapering

Business economists are almost equally divided over whether the Federal Reserve will pare back bond purchases at the current pace through year’s end or take a small breather to let the economy recover further.

About 43 percent of NABE members thought the Fed would complete its so-called “tapering” in the fourth quarter. About 42 percent thought the tapering would finish in 2015 or later.

At each of the last two policy meetings, the Fed cut bond purchases by $10 billion to the current pace of $65 billion a month. There are seven meetings left in 2014.

A majority of those surveyed agreed with the Fed’s gradual end to its accommodative stance, with 57 percent saying current monetary policy is “about right.” About 37 percent thought it was “too stimulative.”

Cutting back on the bond purchases and the prospect of further cutbacks has already prompted mortgage rates to rise.

Most respondents thought the Fed would wait until 2015 to start raising its key short-term interest rate above the current level near zero. Yellen told Congress earlier this month that the Fed would keep the rate near zero “well past” the time the unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent, as long as inflation remains low. The unemployment rate was 6.6 percent in January, a five-year low.

About 36 percent of respondents thought the Fed would raise the federal funds rate in the first half of 2015, while 37 percent thought the rate hike would come in the second half. Just 12 percent thought a hike would occur in the second half of this year, while 15 percent thought it would happen in 2016 or later.

As for government spending, 21 percent thought fiscal policy was “too stimulative,” while 37 percent thought it was “about right.” About 39 percent thought fiscal policy was “too restrictive.”

Nearly all the respondents — or 83 percent — did not think Congress should put a permanent cap on the debt limit at its current level around $17 trillion.

Respondents were also split on the economic impact of the new federal health care law. While 18 percent thought the Affordable Care Act would boost growth, 42 percent thought it would have no impact and 30 percent thought it would hurt growth.