Probability of trading/investing success and the probability of sighting the Northern Lights

After spending 2 weeks in Norway chasing Northern Lights and savoring one of best panoramic scenic view in life, I am back to action again! I am also glad that I managed to complete few books and magazines throughout the long haul flights, did some deep thinking apart from indulging into Norwegian’s culture and great nature.

I believe many knows that viewing Northern Lights is by chance/luck and there is no 100% certainly of seeing it at any specific night. We can however increase the odd by choosing a better location, say Tromso, Norway, rather than Finland or Sweden, engaging an experience local guide, selecting the month/year that provide higher probability of viewing, etc. All the above can definitely increase the chances of viewing but it still does not guarantee a successful viewing. Hence, are we still going to take the chance to view Northern Lights by knowing all these? I believe the answer is yes for many people as this is definitely one of the bucket list of many I presume. Why? Because the reward of getting to view and capture it in live is just astounding!

How does this relate to trading/investing? There are various method we can use to determine the stock picks, we use fundamental valuation method, we may use technical indicator, price action, volume analysis, etc to project the share price. Does it mean that we are destined to trade/invest successfully by applying valuation method or technical method? While we can safely say that financial tool/education can greatly increase the odd of success in trading/investing, it will not 100% guarantee a success in every trades that we perform. Hence, are we still going to trade and invest? I believe the answer is yes. Why? Because the reward of getting to trade and invest successfully will be tremendous!

Perhaps the next question in mind is that, do we need to profit in every single trade? Quoted from the grand strategy, we can lose a battle but to win a war. If each battle represents a single trade and the war represents our portfolio, then focusing to grow our portfolio by not too carried away with few lose trades should be a wise move.

In summary, the chances of sighting Northern Lights in a specific day (analogy to a single trade concept) may require a bit of luck but to sight Northern Lights in a whole week (analogy to a portfolio concept) would almost a guarantee. Needless to say if you stay there for a month or two, the chances of not sighting should be zero. Hence, try to chase more days if you happen to be there in the future! Cheers!