Study forecasts spike in Arctic shipping

Randy Boswell, Postmedia News03.05.2013

Ed Struzik-Postme Two UCLA researchers, using climate-change forecasting models, have produced maps, inset, comparing the Arctic shipping routes through Canada's Northwest Passage as they exist today, left, with what they will look like in 2040 and beyond, right. They have mapped the likeliest routes that would be usable by icebreakers like the Canadian Coast Guard ship Henry Larsen, above, and ordinary 'open-water vessels' during September, when the annual summer ice retreat is the greatest.

Amid revelations this week that Canada's military is being forced to decrease its presence in the Arctic because of federal budget cuts, a U.S. study on thinning polar ice has produced the first maps showing predicted new shipping routes through Canada's Northwest Passage, Russia's Northern Sea Route and even directly across the North Pole.

Two UCLA researchers using a series of climate-change forecasting models to generate their data have concluded that the polar region will become "much more accessible than ever imagined," and that the expected spike in ship traffic in the coming decades will add greater urgency to efforts by Canada and the U.S. to resolve their long-standing jurisdictional disagreement over the main transit corridors through Canada's Arctic islands.

"Studies like this suggest that we will have to move forward," UCLA geographer Laurence C. Smith, co-author of the study, told Postmedia News.

Smith is also the author of the 2010 book The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future, which predicted that Canada will emerge as a major world power by the middle of the 21st century as climate change transforms global trade, agriculture and geopolitics, elevating the status of so-called "Northern Rim" nations.

His latest study, co-authored with fellow UCLA geographer Scott Stephenson, appears in the March issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Plus. The researchers measured the probability of clear sailing in Arctic waters between the years 2040 and 2059 and mapped the likeliest routes that would be usable by both icebreakers and more ordinary "open-water vessels" during the month of September - the time of year when the annual summer ice retreat is greatest.

Their scenarios show that by mid-century, the principal shipping lane through Canadian waters will become the Parry Channel that runs between the north end of Baffin Island in Nunavut and the north side of Banks Island in the Northwest Territories.

While that's still essentially a non-navigable corridor at this point - even at the height of the record-setting thaws of recent summers - the channel is expected to be routinely clear enough by 2050 to accommodate an ever-increasing number of voyages by icebreakers and "common open-water ships," the findings show.

Thick red and blue lines on the researchers' mid-century map illustrate the expected flow of icebreakers and regular open-water ships through the Canadian channel.

The study, titled New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by mid-century, is described as "the first thorough assessment of trans-Arctic shipping potential as global temperatures continue to rise" in the age of climate change.

While Canada and other Arctic nations have taken some steps to prepare for an expected increase in northern shipping - including a kind of mutual assistance agreement for search-and-rescue operations - many observers are concerned that tourist traffic and economic development in an increasing accessible polar realm will outpace regulatory regimes aimed at limiting environmental damage and preventing shipwreck tragedies.

"The development is both exciting from an economic development point of view and worrisome in terms of safety, both for the Arctic environment and for the ships themselves," Smith said in a summary of the study released on Monday.

Among the study's findings is that sea ice will eventually become so thin and weak in the central Arctic Ocean that icebreakers will be able to carry out voyages in "a straight shot over the North Pole" instead of merely hugging the coastlines of North America or Eurasia.

"Nobody's ever talked about shipping over the top of the North Pole," Smith stated. "This is an entirely unexpected possibility."

In the interview, he said: "Will the Northern Sea Route or the North Pole route become appealing for container ships bringing Ikea furniture from China to New York? I'm more dubious about that."

But with the emergence, he added, of "reliable shipping access" between Arctic-based resource sites and key markets, "even for only a few weeks or months out of the year, now it becomes very attractive to pull out LNG - liquefied natural gas - nickel and the other kinds of commodities that China, in particular, and the developing world needs."

Smith said the adoption of a "mandatory polar code" under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization will become key to establishing safe-shipping regimes in the Arctic. "If anything, I fear this place will become more dangerous rather than less because of the temptation that this retreating ice is going to present," he said.

A Radio-Canada reporter has been arrested for alleged criminal harassment while pursuing the subject of a story. According to Radio-Canada, reporter Antoine Trépanier was arrested Tuesday night by Gatineau police. He was released on a promise to appear in court. Trépanier was called by Gatineau police Tuesday evening and an officer requested that he come […]

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