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Squire Report, Vol 4: Futures

30 November 2017

Another crazy month as the team continues to surprise the hockey world...

GOALIE CAROUSEL

It’s mind-boggling how unlucky the Knights have been with their goalie situation. Marc-André Fleury was specifically chosen in the Expansion Draft to be the starter in net and face of the franchise, while Malcolm Subban was singled out by goalie coach Dave Prior to be the future in goal. On July 1, GM George McPhee signed two free agent goalies, Oscar Dansk and Maxime Lagace, but both were supposed to spend the season in the AHL. Then the unthinkable happened.

Injuries to both Fleury and Subban forced the Knights to recall Dansk and Lagace, and fire up a mountain of trade speculation from media and fans around the league - this would only grow worse when Dansk got hurt as well, and the Knights had to call up 19-year-old Dylan Ferguson from the WHL. Though it was strictly an “emergency recall” in case Lagace got hurt (thankfully, he didn’t), Ferguson still got to travel and practice with the team - and even managed to take the ice in the final minutes of a blowout loss in Edmonton:

It’s easy to chastise McPhee for not bringing in another goalie, but I think he played the situation perfectly. This season is not about wins & losses so much as it is about evaluation. There is no reason for McPhee to give up assets to acquire a goalie who would have no place on the roster once the injured players returned. Furthermore, this rash of injuries gave McPhee and Prior the best chance to get an up-close look at each of the goalies in the system during NHL game action, rather than just seeing them in practice or the AHL.

THE FIRST FREE AGENT TO BE EXTENDED IS...BRAYDEN McNABB??

When the Golden Knights selected Brayden McNabb from the Los Angeles Kings in the Expansion Draft, I was initially puzzled. I had my sights set on Trevor Lewis, who had three years left on a cheap contract (only $2M per year) and seemed like a good veteran for the locker room. While McNabb is four years younger than Lewis, he just seemed like a very average defenseman - he didn’t do anything spectacular, and was mostly known for laying huge body checks on unsuspecting opponents. But he only had one year left on his current contract, and fit the profile that McPhee was planning, leading me to believe he was seemingly drafted to be traded for assets.

Which is why signing him to a 4-year extension is quite baffling. I don’t mind McNabb as a player - even though he does sometimes find himself out of position while trying to make a big hit - but he just seems so replaceable. On a team with a logjam on defense (especially the left side), re-signing a pending free agent instead of trading him seems like a waste of an asset. That is, unless management has identified him as a part of their core moving forward, which appears to be the case. Turning 27 next month, McNabb is still fairly young and does play a solid shutdown role which is somewhat lacking on this team, but I picture him as a bottom-pair defenseman and assumed McPhee would fill that role via free agency - while cashing in the valuable trade chip by moving McNabb for a draft pick or prospect.

I wish McNabb the best, but I fear for the worst. If he’s going to be a longterm member of the blueline, then I hope he can work on the deficiencies in his game and prove he was worth the contract. Otherwise I get the feeling he’ll find himself being a healthy scratch as the team gets better in the near future, or worse yet, he could end up being a scapegoat during the team’s struggles. I know that virtually all of McPhee’s transactions have been examined and/or ridiculed since he began to assemble this team, but I’ve supported them all because I could see the longterm benefits - however, this is the first time that I've been somewhat confused. But there are still some other pending UFA’s on the roster..

PERRON AND NEAL ON THE TRADE BLOCK?

As I just mentioned, one of the biggest stories to come out of the Expansion Draft was the fact that the Knights selected several players with expiring contracts, presumably to trade them for assets as the team continued to build. In the age of the salary cap, this is the seemingly correct way to plan for the future, and guys like James Neal and David Perron would hold tremendous value to teams trying to win the Stanley Cup this season. But this line of thinking only applied since most of the hockey world - and yes, yours truly - assumed the Knights would be a very mediocre team and would be looking to the future. But what if the team has exceeded expectations? What if the future is now?

Reports began to circulate recently that McPhee was getting calls on both Perron and Neal, due to the team’s hot start in conjunction with the parity/mediocrity that has leveled the field and allowed many teams to think they can contend. Certainly a goal-scorer like James Neal could fetch a 1st rounder at the February trade deadline, but perhaps he could return even more right now? And David Perron is a tremendous competitor and would hold a lot of value to a team pushing for the playoffs - I always assumed he could bring back a 2nd rounder, but could that be bumped up to a 1st if another team is desperate enough?

I know it might not be the most popular opinion, but I still believe that both Perron and Neal should be traded while their value as pending free agents is still high. McPhee is going to have to weigh the importance of the future draft picks against these veterans and their ability to remain key cogs on the team during their formative years. The surprising start is nice, but I still get the feeling that the struggling Edmonton Oilers will turn things around, and the injury-ravaged Anaheim Ducks will get healthy and climb up the standings, leaving the Knights outside of the playoff picture and prepared to be “sellers” at the deadline. And even if they ARE still in the playoff hunt, then guys like Teemu Pulkkinen and Tomas Hyka could be called up from the AHL to fill the open spots vacated by moving Perron/Neal - sure, they’re not nearly as talented, but if the Knights continue to play as a team then they shouldn’t miss a beat!

DAS VADANYA, SHIPPY!

Honestly, I had planned on writing a lengthy screed about Vadim Shipachyov and the termination of his contract so he could return to Russia - but you know what? I really don't care anymore. Enough has been written about the subject, and it's time to move forward with focusing on the players who are still with the Knights organization.

LAST MONTH'S PREDICTIONS

I. THE KNIGHTS WILL RECORD SIX POINTS ON THEIR SIX-GAME ROAD TRIP
Ugh. This road trip was somewhat brutal. In addition to losing Dansk to injury, the team began the trip by blowing leads against both New York teams, and ultimately collected a mere three points (1-4-1) in those six games. Brighter days are ahead, but winning on the road will likely be one of the biggest challenges during this inaugural season.

II. OSCAR DANSK AND MAXIME LAGACE WILL COMBINE TO WIN SIX GAMES
On the day after my previous Squire Report was published, Oscar Dansk backstopped the Knights to an impressive 7-0 win over the Colorado Avalanche...and then promptly got injured in the very next game. Maxime Lagace had a bit of a shaky beginning when he took the net, but did manage a 5-5-1 record in 11 starts, before Malcom Subban returned. I knew the Dansk/Lagace tandem had a chance to be successful, but I had no idea they'd win the exact amount of games I predicted - I'll take it!

III. A TRADE WILL FINALLY BE COMPLETED
I'm still surprised this hasn't happened yet (more on that in a bit). As soon as both Jason Garrison and Griffin Reinhart cleared waivers and were assigned to the AHL, I assumed McPhee would find someone to take them for added depth on the blueline. But no, we continue to wait and see how the team plans to clear out the overcrowded roster - or do they just wait for injuries to occur to help clear it out for them?

NEXT MONTH'S PREDICTIONS

I. MARC-ANDRE FLEURY WILL NOT RETURN TO THE LINEUP
The team needs to be as patient as possible with their #1 goalie and de facto "face of the franchise", especially given Fleury's history of concussions and their surprising depth at the position. Though "the Flower" has shown up at practices and even briefly skated with the team, it would appear that his inevitable return will continue to be delayed - so I certainly wouldn't expect it to happen before the end of 2017.

II. WILLIAM KARLSSON WILL REACH 20 GOALS AND 40 POINTS ON THE SEASON
One of the best stories for this Knights team has been the play of William Karlsson. A depth center who was mostly used in a 4th line role during his previous stints in Anaheim and Columbus, "Wild Bill" has taken advantage of his increased ice time and unleashed his potential by reaching 13 goals and 22 points, surpassing his previous season high in goals (9), and quickly approaching his best season point-wise (25). There is no reason to think that Karlsson can't rack up seven goals and 18 points next month, especially given his incredible chemistry with dynamic linemates Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith.

III. NO, SERIOUSLY, A TRADE WILL FINALLY BE COMPLETED
Come on, it has to! We know that teams are calling, and I have to imagine McPhee is getting anxious. Hockey pundits have long speculated that American Thanksgiving is the approximate time for teams to assess the areas in which they need improvement, and trades tend to start happening around the end of November. Like I said last month: get it done, George!