The cutoff low in the Ohio Valley will plague us with the same ol forecast. Cloudy morning---some sunshine breaks. Scattered showers/storms. Some with heavy rain. Rain fades at night. Highs hovering close to 80 during the day...60s at night.

Here is the low postion as of now:

By Tuesday night..it really hasn't moved too much. But there should be a slight jog to the west during this period.

By Thursday, the low starts to push west...but the "Berumda" high will then build in from the east. The two of these features will work together to produce a strong southern flow. That is going to send in a tremendous about of moisture in our direction. With dewpoints in the 70s with this surge...tropical downpours with flash flooding look quite possible for the end of the week. While rain chances remain fairly low (due to coverage) it is the the coverage that matters--it is the intensity of these slow movers if you get under one that raises some concern.

Over the weekend, the high pressure will try to build a bit more west. This will be key on rain chances this weekend. If the high can move far enough west to protect us from storms...we will see a somewhat drier forecast with highs in the 90s. If the high is as shown...we will still have the feed of the moisture belt into our area. Just something we will have to fine-tune as the week wears on.

Either way, the end of the week and weekend looks quite humid during the day...and muggy at night. High temps may hit in the 90-93 degree range, but as we have witnessed all late spring/early summer---it is t0ugh to go higher than that with so much green vegetation.

We stand at (6) 90° days so far this year.

The coolest in recent memory is 9 days back in 2004. The coolest ever is 3 days in 1974.

1974 is out of reach obviously, but could this be the coolest summer in nearly a decade? It is possible.

Another dip in the jet stream is showing up with cooler weather and storms by the 13th of July.

August has featured some hot turn-arounds in the past for Kentuckiana. We shall see if that is when "summer" truely arrives.

Can you believe it's the last day of June already? With the 4th of July just around the corner you'd think it would be steamy and hot out there. But it's not. In fact, more of the showers and storms that we saw yesterday afternoon and evening will be back today. I know folks at the Kentucky Speedway were not happy about the rain cancelation yesterday but prospects today are a little brighter since the race will start a few hours before rain chances go up.

Temperatures will struggle to get to 80 degrees today thanks to the cloud cover we have rotating through the region now and the clouds that we'll see this afternoon with the scattered showers and storms that will be developing. Storms this afternoon could again have heavy rain, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Like a broken record (what's a record?) tomorrow will be a repeat as storms will fire up once again in the afternoon and evening. Sights like the one below from Jayna in Cecilia, KY on our Facebook page yesterday will be common but not everyone will see the rain.

Upper Low Slowly Moves Out

Remember all the rain we had during Derby this year? The pattern we're in now is very similar to the one that produced the soaking on Derby Day since an upper-level low is creating a cool and unstable environment. This is NOT typical for summer, as if you needed me to tell you that. Decent storm chances during the daytime heating will continue for Monday and Tuesday but these chances will begin to decrease as the big trough of low pressure retrogrades (moves backward) to the west. Nevertheless, instability will continue to be available for small shower and storm chances as we head through Independence Day next week.

Since we'll have a little bit of upper-wind support on Tuesday afternoon to the east side of the trough as it moves west some of the storms could ramp up in intensity more than they have lately. These storms will pose a threat for damaging winds and the SPC mentions that in their 5% severe weather risk area outline for us on Tuesday. This doesn't look to be a big deal at this point but we'll keep an eye on it.

Hokey Weather Fact

Time to talk about raindrop physics. No, I'm serious. Don't worry, this isn't hard. The biggest raindrops fall at 20 mph, which is their terminal velocity or maximum speed. This is because the gravity pulling down on a big raindrop equals the resistance of the air pushing upward on it as it falls. That's it! Smaller raindrops, since they have less mass, fall at slower speeds. That's more than you probably ever wanted to know but now you can tell your friends that raindrops can't fall faster than 20 mph!

June 29, 2013

There's not a drop of rain on the radar this morning but this afternoon and evening will be a different story. Showers and storms will be on the increase as a cold front drops down from the north, just in time for the big race at the Kentucky Speedway this evening. While it won't be a total washout we do have a pretty decent chance of storms as we head toward the evening. The start time will depend on where you are, so those in Southern Indiana will see storm chances go up during the early afternoon while those farther south in Kentucky won't see the rain until the late afternoon into the evening. The HRRR model (right) seems to have a good handle on the situation with scattered storms moving toward the river by 3pm.

Storm chances will begin to taper off around midnight as we lose the heating of the day. Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday with storms ramping up in the afternoon and evening. Neither day will feature severe storms, thankfully! The big trough of low pressure in the East will stick around through the first half of next week, so don't expect the storm chances to go away until then. The opposite side of this big trough over us, the huge ridge of high pressure over the west, is creating an incredible heat wave in parts of Nevada, California, Arizona, and even areas farther north. We'll stay unseasonably cool around here... for now.

Hokey Weather Fact

Go outside and see if you can find a pine cone before it rains today. Thanks to changes in humidity, pine cones close up before it rains and open up in drier weather. It's just another way nature can give us clues to what's in the weather forecast!Go outside and see if you can find a pine cone before it rains today. Thanks to changes in humidity, pine cones close up before it rains and open up in drier weather. It's just another way nature can give us clues to what's in the weather forecast!

June 28, 2013

While we do have a few spotty showers across the very southern part of our viewing area this morning most of us are dry. Dry air is moving in from the north to overspread the area and will keep us rain-free... for most of the day. By late this afternoon moister air from the Great Lakes region will move in. This along with daytime heating will help to trigger a few isolated thunderstorms, mostly across Southern Indiana. Coverage of these storms will be very minimal so any outdoor plans today should be in good shape.

Pattern Change Takes Hold

Our pattern over the next several days is, in a word, strange. We'll be on one side of two extremes across the US as a strong ridge sets up over the west and a deep trough sets up over the east. This trough over the east will rotate multiple upper-level disturbances through our region over the next several days, triggering a decent daily chance of thunderstorms. Since we have a mechanism to drive the storms that's not dependant solely on daytime heating we'll keep the storm chances around during the evenings as well. A lack of deep moisture and wind support will keep away severe weather chances through at least the beginning of next week but heavy rain could pose flooding issues. I didn't mention temperatures yet. Hold on to your seats! We'll be in the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the next week thanks to the influence of cold air aloft with this trough over the east. Somehow this kind of weather doesn't scream July to me. We will be warming temperatures up back into the mid 80s by the 4th of July thanks to this trough moving to our west.

Storm Surveys

This stormy, cooler weather is much preffered over the heat and humidity that brought us the round of significant severe weather we saw earlier this week. The National Weather Service has confimred two tornadoes now from these storms, an EF2 in LaRue County and an EF1 in Perry County. (More from NWS Louisville)

From the EF1 in Perry County:

AN EF1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF TROY AND MOVED SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TELL CITY LIFTING JUST NORTH OF CANNELTON. THE PATH LENGTH WAS
5.15 MILES WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO 95 MPH.

From the EF2 in LaRue County:

AN EF2 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ALONG THE HARDIN AND LARUE COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST WITH AN APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH OF SEVEN MILES AND WIND SPEEDS UP TO 135 MPH.

Damage from 80 mph straight-line winds in Hardin County near Rineyville was also reported on Wednesday night, causing tree and roof damage. Even though it may have felt like a tornado went through in this area, straight-line were the culprit. This was something we identified while we were on-the-air with coverage on Wednesday night as the storms rolled through Hardin County. The same storm segment that produced the straight-line wind damage began to really ramp up its rotation on radar as it passed east of Elizabethtown, going on to produce the EF2 tornado in LaRue County.

This is not to forget the incredible flooding we saw in parts of the Louisville area thanks to the persistent heavy rains. Reports of roads covered by water came in from Butchertown, UofL (see right), just south of Hikes Point, and even up toward the Harrison/Floyd County line in Southern Indiana. Some of these reports also included information that drivers were trying their luck by crossing through these waters. Not a good idea! As we always say, "Turn Around, Don't Drown!"

June 26, 2013

UPDATE 9:25pm: The severe weather threat is coming to an end across Kentuckiana as rain-cooled air and the loss of daytime heating is decreasing storm intensity. Flash flooding and power outages will continue to be a concern tonight as heavy storms are currently moving across the Ohio River. You'll want to watch out for frequent lightning too... check out the shot to the right from our SkyTrack Camera in Jeffersonville! The Severe Thunderstorm WATCH for Kentuckiana is scheduled to expire at 11pm. Christie will have an update for you on WAVE 3 News at 11:00 tonight.

UPDATE 3:55pm: Severe storms are ongoing across Southern Indiana and will affect areas near and south of the Ohio River as we head throughout the afternoon and evening hours. We're under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11pm tonight and storms will taper off thereafter. We've had no reports of damage yet but just before 3pm a severe wind gust of 67 mph was reported near the Mitchell, Indiana area. These storms will all have the potential to put down winds in excess of 60 mph, hail, flooding rains, and frequent lightning. We can't rule out an isolated tornado as well. Constant updates on this severe weather situation are being posted to our WAVE 3 Weather Facebook Page, the hub of all things weather!

June 24, 2013

LIGHTNING TODAYTake a look at this shot of lightning hitting the downtown buildings today in Evansville.Evansville picked up record rainfall today for this date. The previous record was 1.81 inches set in 1928. The total so far today has been 4.10 inches. Several homes were evacuated and water rescues were underway early in the day in Evansville.

LIGHTNING AWARENESS WEEK(MOST KILLED WHILE FISHING)64 percent of lightning deaths since 2006 occurred while people were participating in leisure activities, with fishing topping the list at 26 deaths. Of the 152 deaths associated with leisure activities, fishing is followed by camping (15 deaths), boating (14 deaths), soccer (12 deaths) and golf (8 deaths). The remaining 77 people were struck by lightning while participating in a number of other leisure activities like enjoying the beach, swimming, walking and running, riding recreational vehicles, and picnicking or relaxing in their yard. Between 2006 and 2012, 82 percent of people killed by lightning were male.

Prior to the lightning safety campaign, lightning killed an average of 73 people each year in the United States. Since the National Weather Service launched the campaign, the average has dropped to 37. Seven people have died from lightning strikes so far this year.

LIGHTNING SAFETY TIPSThe best way for people to protect themselves against lightning injury or death is to monitor the weather and postpone or cancel outdoor activities when thunderstorms are in the forecast. Lightning can strike from 10 miles away, so if people can hear thunder, they are in danger of being struck by lightning. The only safe places to be during a thunderstorm are in a building with four walls and a roof or in a car. A hut, cabana, tent, or other rain shelter will not protect a person from being struck by lightning.

June 23, 2013

The Supermoon last night and this morning was incredibly bright as it traversed the night skies over the area. While not notably bigger to the naked eye, it was nice to have some bright moonlight this morning on my early drive in for Sunrise! During the show I was able to maneuver our Jeffersonville SkyTrack Camera around to capture a time lapse video of the moon over the Louisville skyline as it set and the sun rose. Just beautiful...

Yesterday I also asked you guys to send in your supermoon photos to our Facebook page, the hub of all things weather, and boy did you photographers come through! Below are a few that stood out, some of which I showed on-air this morning.

If you didn't get a chance to see the moon last night or want another shot at a photo be sure to look up again tonight! It won't be as full as it was last night but it will be pretty close.

This Week

As we've been discussing this weekend, the heat and humidity will be sticking around through the middle of next week. The whole "afternoon pop-up storm" regime will continue as well. Some of these storms, like we've seen in past days, have the potential to put down considerable rainfall in a short period of time and some dangerous lightning (see below for more on that). Storms will ramp up even more on Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves through Kentuckiana. It's still too early to pin down severe weather chances with these storms since the timing isn't clear this far out. The big story will be the pattern change this system will bring about as the West bakes under a strong ridge and we come under the influence of a trough over the Great Lakes. This means cooler weather will be here just in time for next weekend. The other side of the coin though is that we'll be in a somewhat stormy pattern as we come under northwest flow from this trough aloft.

Hokey Weather Fact

Alright guys, time to have a talk. Yes, just the guys. Men are five times more likely to be struck by lightning than women. Seriously. How so? Statistically speaking, men engage in more risky behavior than women during storms. Whether it be on the golf course, on the beach, at the pool, or working outdoors, us guys tend to want to stay outside in spite of an oncoming thunderstorm and brush it off as a nuisance. Here's my advice: Hear thunder? See lightning? Go inside. Don't be the next one to become a lightning statistic!

June 22, 2013

Did you see the sunrise this morning? It was pretty phenomenal and those who watched WAVE 3 News Sunrise this morning had a front-r0w seat to some great sunrise views across the area. One that really stood out was our SkyTrack Camera's vantage point in Starlight, IN at Huber's Orchard and Winery. I put together a timelapse video of the sunrise from Starlight that you can watch below!

Temperatures today will once again move into the 90-degree range for highs this afternoon. We'll once again see a small chance for isolated showers and storms this afternoon thanks to the heating of the day. Folks east of I-65 and along and north of the Watterson had some crazy weather to deal with yesterday thanks to one of these isolated storms. Since there were no steering winds aloft (and there won't be today either) the storm sat over parts of Central Louisville and kept morphing and reshaping as the cool outflow air continued to trigger new storm updrafts. The Highlands saw the major brunt of this activity with 40-45 mph wind gusts and some pretty incredible flooding as you'll see in the picture from Austin B. to the right.

Next Week's Stagnant Summer Sunshine

The ridge I talked about yesterday, while not terribly strong, will hold firm
through the middle of next week. The upper-level low embedded in all of this dissolves and move off through the beginning of the week. This and a few small disturbances aloft will continue our small storm chances in the afternoon will continue as we start the workweek. We'll have to pinpoint these chances day-by-day since outflow boundaries and small features that will become a focus for storms will only be able to be identified on a short-term basis. High temperatures will hold steady around 90 as the ridge persists.

Pattern Flip Update

A change in our pattern looks to be on-track after looking at the latest data. Starting on Thursday our storm chances will increase in response to an approaching front and upper-level trough of low pressure. These elements will help to send a couple waves of storms through the area for both Thursday and Friday. It's tough to pinpoint the timing and intensity of these storms this far out in time but we'll be keeping an eye on that. A lot of us (minus the Highlands as you saw earlier) will probably need some rain by the time late next week rolls around so this will be some good news for those who will need it. After the main front rolls through on Friday temperatures will dip a little bit for the weekend.

A Hokey Supermoon

This weekend is the 2013 Supermoon, which is the closest and brighest the moon will be to Earth until August of 2014. What makes this "super" is the fact that this month's full moon will coincide with lunar perigee, or the point in the moon's eliptical orbit around earth where it's closest to us. You'll be hard-pressed to notice the difference in size but it will be a bit brighter than usual and make for some great photo opportunities tonight and tomorrow night. Be sure to post your photos to our WAVE 3 Weather Facebook page or tweet them to us on Twitter!

June 21, 2013

Summer started this morning at 1:04am EDT and right on schedule we have a summer weather pattern shaping up for us. Temperatures yesterday got into the upper 80s but today we're shooting for 90 degrees as the heat continues to build in. Like yesterday we'll see a small chance for an isolated shower or storm, mainly south of the Parkways. The HRRR shows a few showers beginning to pop this afternoon but the coverage seems a bit overdone.

Small Storm Chances, Hot, Humid... Summer

An upper-level low pressure caught in our overall high pressure ridge in the eastern half of the nation is helping to trigger today's small storm chances over our southern viewing area. Since there is no real steering winds here this low will meander around the East through the early part of the new workweek, creating small daily storm chances for us in the afternoon. The cooler temperatures aloft with this low will be the culprit for triggering the storms since they enhance instability.

Along with the rain chances every day we'll have fairly steady temperatures through most of next week. Highs will get up to around 90 each day and overnight lows will get down to into the lower 70s. The ridge of high pressure we have now will stick around through about Thursday of next week. That will help to keep those steady temperatures but the aforementioned low will keep the daily storm chances on the table.

Pattern Change

Both the long-range GFS and Euro models are hinting at a substantial pattern change for us as we head through the latter part of next week. A trough will dive southward from Canada and its surface-based cold front will travel out ahead of it. This will ramp up our storm chances as we head into Thursday and Friday. Some great news with the passage of this front would be a period of low humidity and cooler temperatures next weekend. The overall northwesterly flow we'll have with this trough in place through next week will mean the potential for a somewhat stormier pattern with cooler temperatures while folks in the Western US bake under the heat of a big ridge. We'll keep an eye on how this pattern develops as we get closer to time.

June 19, 2013

We are now in the final 36 hours of Spring. Summer begins late tomorrow night at 1:04am.

So far this spring, we have had 2 days in the 90s. Those in the past week.

2012...we have 10 under our belt at this point

2011... 10 days also

2009... 22 days at 90 or higher!

It does appears we are going to make up some ground however. A long stretch of 90+ days coming our way that may last 1-2 weeks!

Summer arriving right on cue it appears.

We look dry tonight through about Friday.

However by late Friday onward...the moisture levels start to increase across the southeastern US.

There will not be any cold front to focus the storms into one certain location. So the storms will be very isolated and random on development. Outflow boundaries (like we saw the other day) will act as mini cold fronts...so that will be what to watch for when it comes to somewhat of storm pattern. Otherwise...hazy/hot/humid will be the rule each day.

High temps should approach 90 on Friday. It initially will be tough to go much higher than say 91/92 with the wet ground in place. But if we go several days of intense sunshine...that ground wild ry out. At that point, high temps could push into the 93-95 range potentially. The heat index will also increase.

There are signs that another ...unusual...cold front will drop down near the 4th of July. That looks to be our next best shot at more organized storm activity.

In fact, the long range models still strongly hint that our pattern for July will feature active cold fronts in the Ohio Valley with a strong west coast high pressure. That means hot/drought for the west.---and stormy and fairly "cool" in our region.

We shall see if that pattern indeed develops.

Until then...enjoy the nice pool weather moving in!! Just watch out for those PM storms this weekend!