Kissinger, China, and World Domination

Will China take over the world? And if so, how soon? This was the subject of the Munk debate, a biannual public-policy forum sponsored by the Aurea Foundation, held in Toronto last Friday. The speakers were Henry Kissinger, Fareed Zakaria, Niall Ferguson, and David Daokui Li, and the audience was asked to vote, before and after, on the resolution that “the twenty-first century will belong to China.” Pre-debate results showed a near even split, with thirty-nine per cent for the motion (argued by Ferguson and Li), forty against it (Kissinger and Zakaria), and the rest undecided.

“The key to the twenty-first century lies in the decline of the West,” Ferguson said. Yes, China has a national economic-growth rate approaching ten per cent, a dominant manufacturing industry, and over a trillion dollars of foreign-currency reserves, and is the world’s most powerful lender. But that’s not enough. “The twenty-first century will be China’s,” he said, “because an overweight, overleveraged, oversexed America, not to mention a dysfunctional Europe, are on the slide.”

Fareed Zakaria, in contrast, called the idea that we are lost while countries like China maintain long-term strategic plans a fallacy. The United States has “bumbled” along just fine, and has maintained its status as a superpower, prevailing as a democratic leader and continuing to attract the world’s top talent. That, and a culture that fosters innovation and entrepreneurship, are precisely what keep America unique and vibrant in the face of Eastern efficiency. The Apple iPhone, for instance, is constructed in China, but was invented and designed in the U.S.

Kissinger praised China’s success, but argued that it faces too many internal problems—an aging society, an enormous migrant population, insufficient jobs, and extreme disparities between the advanced coastal regions and a developing interior—to dominate the West.

Li, a Chinese economist, insisted that China has no plans to take over, and that its gains needn’t be the West’s losses: “China’s emergence is not implying it will dominate. Together we will all own the century,” Li said. Kissinger agreed, and suggested that in the future no single country would be the winner.

That seemed persuasive: by the end of the evening, there had been a swing in the votes, with sixty-two per cent against the resolution. Even one of the debaters seemed convinced. “I think it’s three to one against my friend Niall,” Kissinger said, turning to Li. “If you would like to move your chair over to our side, we will both have won.”