Moving from principles to action for energy supply that mitigates
against climate change requires a long-term perspective. Energy
infrastructure takes time to build up; new energy technologies take
time to develop. Policy shifts often also need many years to take
effect. In most world regions the transformation from fossil to
renewable energies will require additional investment and higher
supply costs over about twenty years

primary energy consumption

Taking into account the above assumptions, the resulting primary energy consumption under the Energy [R]evolution scenario is shown in Figure 5.134. Compared to the Reference scenario, overall primary energy demand will be reduced by 42% in 2050. Around 82% of the remaining demand (including non energy consumption) will be covered by renewable energy sources.

The coal demand in the Energy [R]evolution scenario will peak by 2020 with 77,700 PJ/a compared to 65,400 PJ/a in 2009 and decrease afterwards to 4,400 PJ/a by 2050. This is made possible mainly by replacement of coal power plants with renewables after 20 rather than 40 years lifetime. This leads to an overall renewable primary energy share of 27% in 2030 and 82% in 2050. Nuclear energy is phased out just after 2045.