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Hamilton Contingency Plan

Yankee fan, so I'm gonna get hit hard with some hate but, say you guys sign Grienke, that cancels out the signing of Hamilton, as per reports.

How would you feel about a Cano trade? Trust me, I'm not in favor of it but the Yankee's of today aren't throwing out shells of cash for big contracts and George is probably rolling in his grave (Hal's fiscal conservative approach) A deal for Cano would have to blow the Cashman out of the water and make Hal Steinbrenner scream for it, as Cano would be the hottest trade commodity in years as he is arguably, other than Trout, the best all around player in the league.

Profars future at second would be replaced by Cano
Kinsler would be moved to first
Mike Olt is blocked by Beltre
With the signing of Grienke, Martin becomes easily expendable
Alfaro is your only real hit, and he has a way to go to prove himself.

Yankee fan, so I'm gonna get hit hard with some hate but, say you guys sign Grienke, that cancels out the signing of Hamilton, as per reports.

How would you feel about a Cano trade? Trust me, I'm not in favor of it but the Yankee's of today aren't throwing out shells of cash for big contracts and George is probably rolling in his grave (Hal's fiscal conservative approach) A deal for Cano would have to blow the Cashman out of the water and make Hal Steinbrenner scream for it, as Cano would be the hottest trade commodity in years as he is arguably, other than Trout, the best all around player in the league.

Profars future at second would be replaced by Cano
Kinsler would be moved to first
Mike Olt is blocked by Beltre
With the signing of Grienke, Martin becomes easily expendable
Alfaro is your only real hit, and he has a way to go to prove himself.

This hurts to think about. 30 year old with one year left on his contract. Is a top 5 position player in the league. Will be looking for at least 7 years at 25/per in any extension talks with Boras as his agent. He'll make 15 in '13 (which is about 10 less than Hamilton). You're asking for the #1 prospect in baseball, plus 3 more top 10 prospects in our system... again, for 1 year of Cano...

I'll pass.

However, I'd consider parting with 2 years of Andrus and do a straight up deal, but even then, I don't think Cano offers THAT much more of an upside than an affordable J. Upton at age 25 under team control longer. If we're not giving up Andrus for Upton, I don't think there's anyway in hell we're doing Profar for Cano... let alone all the prospects you're wanting in the deal.

The only way I could see the Rangers being even remotely interested is if they can get a 5 year extension ironed out before the trade. But if they're willing to spend that kind of money of Cano, I think they'd spend it on Hamilton and keep whatever prospects they'd have to give up in a trade. Besides, Cano doesn't fill a need for Texas. Would he be great to have and a definite upgrade at 2b? Hell ya! Is there anyway Texas would consider the trade? Hell no.

Yankee fan, so I'm gonna get hit hard with some hate but, say you guys sign Grienke, that cancels out the signing of Hamilton, as per reports.

How would you feel about a Cano trade? Trust me, I'm not in favor of it but the Yankee's of today aren't throwing out shells of cash for big contracts and George is probably rolling in his grave (Hal's fiscal conservative approach) A deal for Cano would have to blow the Cashman out of the water and make Hal Steinbrenner scream for it, as Cano would be the hottest trade commodity in years as he is arguably, other than Trout, the best all around player in the league.

Profars future at second would be replaced by Cano
Kinsler would be moved to first
Mike Olt is blocked by Beltre
With the signing of Grienke, Martin becomes easily expendable
Alfaro is your only real hit, and he has a way to go to prove himself.

Cano is a Boras client with 1 year left on his deal. He's already said he's not looking to give any discounts and wants the biggest deal available so free agency is the obvious destination. Profar would be out of the question here, and you'd pick between Olt or Perez as the centerpiece of the deal. Even then, I doubt the Rangers want to give up solid talent for a year of Cano at a position of strength.

Rangers are already being mentioned as a team that would have interest in and available money for Cano along with the Dodgers, Nationals and Angels. Yankees are unlikely to let him just walk so this would be an alternative idea to keep up Hal's fiscal conservative stance.

In response to someone calling him "aging" that would need to be found a spot for due to Kinsler... He would be 30 years old at the start of the deal and Kinsler would move to first base like some are calling for to make room for Profar but the Rangers aren't to keen on the idea because they don't want to possibly lower Profar's value should he not do well this upcoming year. He is not the shortstop of the Rangers future, they are locked into and love Andrus, no matter the potential Profar may have.

Profar is a major trade chip. Welcome to the world of being a big spending team, it's fun, you can afford to trade off young guys. We all wish the Yankees were still like that. And while some of you may point to the 189 tax, and that does play into it, the Steinbrenners just sold a 49% stake in the YES network to Fox which reduced their stake to 25% and are now officially minority owners. There is rumors they are even looking to sell of chunks of the Yankee's as well just so long as they remain majority owners. Put simply, Hal is about profit, not about winning.

Also, Justin Upton is far and away from being close to being a done deal as talks have stalled and a lot of teams are still jumping in and have the pieces and may even over pay. Also, he is not at the same category and most likely never will be in the same category as Cano. Is it possible he will be? Yes. Is it probable? No.

No to straight up deal for Andrus, that is absolutely ridiculous. Andrus is a wizard in the field and has plus speed and potential for a 300 average but Cano is the best fielding second basemen and best hitting second basemen and one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Other than Trout, he's the best all around player.

If you are going to trade the best all around player who JUST entered his prime and has a handful of years left in his prime and you can and would resign him, you better get blown away with an offer full of potential for a deal that is solely based on financials.

See, now this is where negotiations during trades kick in. Okay, you don't want to trade your 4 top prospectsm in which if two pan out its a success for the best all around player in baseball? (other than Trout who has only had 1 year in the league)

Fine now if you'd be down for a mock negotiation, I would. But you'd have to take into effect the factors involved: The Rangers would without a doubt resign Cano as they have the available resources. Hamilton isn't getting the big deal of 7-8 years because of character flaws, his body breaking down, his below average defense, and he is two years older than Cano. Also, prospects are just that... prospects. If more than one of them pans out, it's an overwhelming success.

The long term goal would be to move Profar to shortstop after Jeter retires in two years or completely declines during or after this year since, there is no way he can keep this up. You want the best player? You start by giving up your best prospect.

One of the fall back plans if Hamilton leaves was mentioned to be Graderson as he too is falling victim to Hal's payroll slashing. He would have the same, if not better power in the hitter friendly confines of Arlington with no cold weather. And he is a large upgrade defensively over Hamilton. So feel free dabble him into the deal as well. Also keep in mind because at the end of this year his contract expires, Phil Hughes has been made available. And other than the large spike in allowed home runs this year has had a nearly identical career, to Anibal Sanchez (look at the numbers and games pitched) and will most likely command a contract like he is.

It's not fun nor fair that you have to lose your best hitter for nothing but a pick and then make up for it by trading away top prospects, but that is how baseball works a lot of times.

Please, feel free to as I said, run a *realistic* mock negotiation with me, I'm just interested to see how it would play out. And as you know in any negotiation, seller starts high, buyer starts low until there is a middle ground.

The most important factor when it comes to player value is team control. Cano has averaged 7 WAR over the past three years, which is absurdly good. But the risk of having him walk after the year is very high so any potential trade partner would have to essentially make the deal with having him for just 2013 in mind. Andrus is a 4 WAR player signed for 2013 and 2014. In the most basic of terms, the Rangers would be trading 8 WAR for 7 WAR and a higher salary. So even a straight up deal between those two players is something I'm not sure Texas would want to do. And using the rationale that Cano is a superior player, the Yanks might not be inclined to make that deal either. Hence the problem of dealing someone like Robbie Cano and why I think he stays a Yank until free agency.

As far as Profar goes, this is a player who projects better than Andrus and is under team control for the next 5 years (assuming he's a ML regular next year). At 4-5 WAR annually, you're trading 20-25 wins for a season of Cano. Simply put, that won't happen. As good as Cano is, a top prospect like that is not going to get swapped for a rental. If you want a deal to happen, you first have to accept the fact that you won't get full value, or either of the Rangers two infielders. Then, if a guy like Olt or Perez intrigues you, then we can start to build a package.

Short and simple...2B isn't a position we need...now or for awhile. All we have to do is hang on to Profar, who may not turn into Cano, but will be a very good middle infielder in the future. Being that we already have this position, why would we want to to slightly upgrade the position at a cost of all those other young players we have? On top of that, Cano would then cost us a ton of money, which would hurt us in signing the types of players that we trade to the Yanks.

Let's say Cano agrees to an extension upon being traded to Texas... there is nothing about Cano turning his nose up and refusing an extension with the Yankees. He wants to resign, and if the Yankees offered a contract he views as fit for his abilities he would resign. The Yankees have simply not approached him about extension talks. His value isn't going to get any higher unless he hits 350, hits 45 bombs, drives in 140 runs... the market is already grossly inflated. So the "testing the waters" argument is null. The only way testing the waters would ever, ever - play into it is if he hits the market and it becomes a bidding war between LA, Texas and NY. LA to be any sorts of players in the deal would have to move significant salary, which they are capable of doing. But it would have to be done first, before they can even jump in. Thus that leaves the highly unlikely possibility of the Nats and then the Yankees and Rangers where the Yankees, will outbid the Rangers for Cano if push comes to shove. But of late, all indications show that Hal would much rather go a cheaper way.

So that being said, Cano agrees to extension upon trade. Make your offer... players like Granderson, Hughes and Nova are also available and open to discussion as per media reports. So, a possible package with Cano can happen.

What are you going to give me? Profar HAS to be included for a deal to take place, non negotiable.

Short and simple...2B isn't a position we need...now or for awhile. All we have to do is hang on to Profar, who may not turn into Cano, but will be a very good middle infielder in the future. Being that we already have this position, why would we want to to slightly upgrade the position at a cost of all those other young players we have? On top of that, Cano would then cost us a ton of money, which would hurt us in signing the types of players that we trade to the Yanks.

It simply doesn't make sense.

Kinsler to first as there as been a lot of speculation that's where his future is and you're stuck with him until 2017 due to a terrible deal. Andrus and Beltre Aren't going anywhere. You need to replace the big bat and catalyst of your lineup (Hamilton) and also take into account you lost another power cog in Napoli.

Cano and Granderson would more than make up for that.

If we were sitting across the table I feel like most of you would be staring at me with an eyebrow raised saying "What's the catch, Mr. Snake Oil Salesmen Person?"

There is no catch. Yankees are a about profit, Hal loves to brag that he is a finance nut and is quoted saying he always thought the way his father ran the team wasn't profitable.

Cashman's job now, especially with the 189m tax is to minimize risk, maximize profit, and put a winner on the field because it's the Yankees.

Kinsler to first as there as been a lot of speculation that's where his future is and you're stuck with him until 2017 due to a terrible deal. Andrus and Beltre Aren't going anywhere. You need to replace the big bat and catalyst of your lineup (Hamilton) and also take into account you lost another power cog in Napoli.

Cano and Granderson would more than make up for that.

If we were sitting across the table I feel like most of you would be staring at me with an eyebrow raised saying "What's the catch, Mr. Snake Oil Salesmen Person?"

There is no catch. Yankees are a about profit, Hal loves to brag that he is a finance nut and is quoted saying he always thought the way his father ran the team wasn't profitable.

Cashman's job now, especially with the 189m tax is to minimize risk, maximize profit, and put a winner on the field because it's the Yankees.

First, I'm not sure Ian will head to 1B. It has also been speculated that he might end up in the OF. A lot will depend on acquiring Justin Upton who, for his cost and age, I'd rather acquire than Cano.

Second, Andrus is going to cost us a load of dough also here in a couple years. This means we will have to be careful in our spending, especially if we end up signing Greinke this year.

Cano is the best 2man in the league, but again, it doesn't make sense for us to deal for him, just to UPGRADE the position for us. We have candidates that can hold the job down and we can find cheaper offensive production (to mix with the already solid offensive players we have), rather than dealing our farm to get Cano. Ian had a down year last year, but even if he's our 2B next year, he's not exactly a slouch at the position.

It's not going to happen and frankly, anyone that approved that kind of deal should immediately be banned from the game for collusion.

Let's say Cano agrees to an extension upon being traded to Texas... there is nothing about Cano turning his nose up and refusing an extension with the Yankees. He wants to resign, and if the Yankees offered a contract he views as fit for his abilities he would resign. The Yankees have simply not approached him about extension talks. His value isn't going to get any higher unless he hits 350, hits 45 bombs, drives in 140 runs... the market is already grossly inflated. So the "testing the waters" argument is null. The only way testing the waters would ever, ever - play into it is if he hits the market and it becomes a bidding war between LA, Texas and NY. LA to be any sorts of players in the deal would have to move significant salary, which they are capable of doing. But it would have to be done first, before they can even jump in. Thus that leaves the highly unlikely possibility of the Nats and then the Yankees and Rangers where the Yankees, will outbid the Rangers for Cano if push comes to shove. But of late, all indications show that Hal would much rather go a cheaper way.

So that being said, Cano agrees to extension upon trade. Make your offer... players like Granderson, Hughes and Nova are also available and open to discussion as per media reports. So, a possible package with Cano can happen.

What are you going to give me? Profar HAS to be included for a deal to take place, non negotiable.

That makes the deal a little more interesting. But again, we have Profar waiting in the wings to take over 2B and a damn good player there already in Kinsler. Cano has made it clear he wants ARod money. So the options here are to take Cano at $30mm or Profar/Kinsler at a third of that and save the $20mm for Hamilton or Greinke. Would I rather have Cano or Hamilton/Kinsler/Profar? Easy choice.

That makes the deal a little more interesting. But again, we have Profar waiting in the wings to take over 2B and a damn good player there already in Kinsler. Cano has made it clear he wants ARod money. So the options here are to take Cano at $30mm or Profar/Kinsler at a third of that and save the $20mm for Hamilton or Greinke. Would I rather have Cano or Hamilton/Kinsler/Profar? Easy choice.

You are now without Hamilton and without Napoli, and have lost out on both Upton and Grienke.

Make your offer.

(And Cano is not getting $30m a year. Boras can beat his chest and say that's what his client is worth but, the truth is no one will ever get an A Rod type contract until either Stanton, Harper or Trout hit the market. since each will be 26. And that is still a big if. No team will pay that.)