Matt Gurney: A victory for Obama, but an opportunity for Romney

Obamacare Ruling: A victory for Obama, but an opportunity for Romney

On Thursday morning, the United States Supreme Court, in a predictably split decision, upheld President Barack Obama’s signature healthcare plan. The president is so strongly associated with the controversial plan that it has, in popular parlance, even come to bear his name — Obamacare.

Both Republicans and Democrats recognize that the current U.S. healthcare system isn’t working. The cost of providing coverage to those Americans who qualify for state support has been growing so rapidly that, if current trends were left unchecked, the U.S. federal government’s healthcare obligations would swallow up the entire federal government and keep right on going. But the Republicans have claimed that a central plank of Obamacare — that every U.S. citizen must purchase private insurance or be penalized by the government — is unconstitutional.

It isn’t, apparently. Or so said the court in a 5-4 decision, finding that the fee could be considered a tax, and the federal government does have the authority to levy such taxes (just what Obama needs, having a bill named after him upheld on the basis that it’s just another tax). The court’s ruling is a big legal win for the Obama administration … but it’s an equally big political opportunity for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Because while Obamacare is constitutional, it’s also unpopular. On top of the fees that would be imposed on Americans who didn’t purchase health insurance, it would also be funded by higher taxes on high-income earners. The Republicans also have tried to convince the public (with some success) that since the costs will keep rising, and since there’s only so high taxes can go, bringing health care more directly under government control will eventually mean the government will be rationing care. They don’t say “death panels” anymore, as that line of attack backfired. But that’s essentially what they mean.

Americans feelings on Obamacare generally split down party lines. Democrats think it’s neato, Republicans think it stinks. But that’s to be expected in the U.S., never more so than in the run up to a presidential election. It’s just politics. But overall, the numbers are against it — 54% of Americans oppose Obamacare. And that includes many independents. Most of the law is surprisingly popular right across the political spectrum, even finding significant support among Republicans, but where the Democrats lose it is on the “individual mandate” — making each American buy insurance.

That is deeply unpopular. And, more to the point, it’s deeply unpopular with independents. Republicans are 81% opposed, but independents are 73% opposed, according to a poll done this month by Ipsos-Reid, for Reuters. That one provision is the polarizing element that the GOP will continue to hammer away at, to the obvious approval of the independent voters that Romney must absolutely win over if he wants to take the Oval Office come November.

Indeed, it’s been easy to see over the last few days that Romney was fully prepared to continue attacking Obamacare and especially the individual mandate no matter what the court actually ruled. “We’ll all be waiting to see how the court will decide. One thing we already know… it’s bad policy that’s got to go,” Romney recently told supporters on the campaign trail. “And so if the court upholds it, if they say, ‘Look, it passes the Constitution,’ it still is bad policy, and that’ll mean if I’m elected, I’m going to repeal it and replace it. If on the other hand the court strikes it down, they’ll be doing some of my work for me.”

Indeed. A win-win for Mr. Romney. If the court had struck down Obamacare, it would have been a stinging rebuke for a sitting president who hasn’t exactly had a lot of good news coming his way lately, due to a still sluggish economic recovery. And now that the court has upheld it, the Republicans have an issue they can campaign on til November, knowing it’s playing well to the must-win independents, and that the president will have to come out and defend his unpopular signature policy loudly and often.

Ironies abound, of course, not just because many Republicans like much of Obamacare, but because the plan is very similar to the healthcare plan then-governor Romney brought in when he led Massachusetts. But a blindness to irony (or hypocrisy, if you prefer) is not generally a career-limiter for those seeking elected office. The court’s upholding office is a win for the president. But it’s just as big an opportunity for Romney.