Tally needed for fourth place on track to be third highest in PL history

The tally needed to secure fourth place in this season’s Premier League is on track to be the joint-third highest since 1995.

Manchester City pipped Manchester United to the final Champions League spot on goal difference with only 66 points last season, but the tally looks set to be significantly higher this season with the top six clubs slipping up much less against lower opposition.

History

– The average number of points accrued by the fourth-placed team in the 21 seasons since the Premier League switched to a 20-team format is 68.24.

– Liverpool finished fourth in 2003-04 with only 60 points, the lowest of any team to finish in the top four of a Premier League campaign.

– Arsenal finished fourth in 2013-14 despite accumulating 79 points, the highest of any team to finish fourth since the switch to 20 teams.

– If Liverpool and Arsenal continue to pick up points at the same rate as they have done so far this season, they will both finish on 73 points, meaning fourth place will be decided by goal difference.

What’s needed

– Working on the basis that at least 73 points will be needed to qualify for next season’s Champions League, Chelsea need only seven points from their remaining 11 matches.

– Tottenham would need 17 points from their remaining 11 fixtures, with the visits of Arsenal and Manchester United still to come.

– Manchester City would need 18 points from their remaining 12 fixtures, with Pep Guardiola’s men still needing to visit Arsenal and Chelsea, plus entertain Liverpool at the Etihad.

– Liverpool would need 21 points from their remaining 11 fixtures, but have only Manchester City (A) left to play out of the top six.

– Arsenal would need 23 points from their remaining 12 fixtures, with both Manchester clubs still to visit the Emirates and a north London derby at Spurs still to come.

– Manchester United would need 24 points from their remaining 12 fixtures, with a home match against Chelsea and trips to both Arsenal and Tottenham on the calendar.

Liverpool, on the face of things, have an easier run-in given they face the least amount of teams from the top six, but as we highlighted earlier this week, their form against the Premier League’s big boys has not been the problem this season.