The Energy Revolution has begun and will change your lifestyle

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The Energy Blog is where all topics relating to The Energy Revolution are presented. Increasingly, expensive oil, coal and global warming are causing an energy revolution by requiring fossil fuels to be supplemented by alternative energy sources and by requiring changes in lifestyle. Please contact me with your comments and questions. Further Information about me can be found HERE.

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April 01, 2006

The Energy Blog is taking a new step by accepting advertising from organizations that are in some way related to the thrust of the blog. Your patronage of the advertisers would be appreciated. The following is a press release from the first of our advertisers, Guinness Atkinson, regarding a new mutual fund that they have launched that invests in companies involved in activities relating to alternative energy.

Guinness Atkinson Asset Management, Inc., announces the launch of the no-load Guinness Atkinson Alternative Energy Fund, which will invest in companies involved in the production, distribution or storage of alternative energy, including energy conservation. The fund is designed as a vehicle for investors seeking to profit from and participate in the shift from conventional fuels to alternative energy sources.

The fund will invest primarily in companies that produce 50 percent or more of revenues from alternative energy and will be managed with an emphasis on value. Lead manager of the fund will be Tim Guinness, Chief Investment Officer of Guinness Atkinson, who also manages the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund.

“Increasing global energy demands, coupled with limiting supplies, will continue to force prices for energy higher and, in turn, accelerate the development of alternative energy sources,” Mr. Guinness said. “We believe that the shift from conventional fuels to alternative forms of energy provides a new opportunity for investors,” he added.

November 28, 2005

BP today announced that it plans to double its investment in alternative and renewable energies to create a new low-carbon power business with the growth potential to deliver revenues of around $6 billion a year within the next decade. BP Alternative Energy will manage an investment programme in solar, wind, hydrogen and combined-cycle-gas-turbine (CCGT) power generation, which could amount to $8 billion over the next ten years.

“We are focusing our investment in alternatives and renewables on power generation because it accounts for over 40 per cent of man-made greenhouse gas emissions, the biggest single source. It is also the area where technology can be applied most cost-effectively to reduce emissions." said BP chief executive Lord Browne.

Investment in hydrogen fuels will include the world’s first commercial project – at Peterhead, in Scotland – to turn natural gas into hydrogen by stripping out carbon dioxide and pumping it into depleted oil reservoirs. The hydrogen will be used at a power station in Peterhead to generate 350 megawatts of ‘clean’ electricity, and the carbon dioxide re-injected into the offshore Miller field. BP is looking at a similar sequestration scheme to make hydrogen from low-value coke by-products at a US refinery which would be used to generate 500 megawatts at an adjacent new-build power plant.

The most newsworthy part of this announcement is BP's plans for sequestering carbon dioxide as part of two projects. I believe that this is the first time sequestration has been used on non-subsidized commercial projects. Hopefully this will push regulators to look at sequestration as best available commercial technology (BACT) and require it to be used on other projects.

November 08, 2005

These are some solar news items I came across today that might interest some of you.

Shell Solar tops efficiency record for thin film PV modules

November 1, 2005 - Shell Solar recently achieved a record 13.5% light to electricity conversion efficiency for it's leading thin film CIS (Copper-Indium-Diselenide) photovoltaic technology. This proves that the performance of thin film technology can be at least as good as that demonstrated by many traditional crystalline silicon products available in the market place today. The result was independently verified by the TUV Rheinland Group in Cologne, Germany based on a 30 x 30cm sized module.

SOLON to Construct Multi Megawatt Solar Power System

November 2, 2005 - Berlin based, solar module manufaturer SOLON AG has received an order from GEOSOL Gesellschaft für Solarenergie mbH, Berlin, to build a 3.4 Megawatt solar power system. The station will be equipped with SOLON Movers, photovoltaic systems from SOLON AG that automatically tilt and rotate during the day to directly face the sun at all times. More at solarbuzz

Nanotechnology Center Makes Flexible Solar Cell Breakthrough

November 7, 2005 - Researchers at Wake Forest, with the help of researchers at New Mexico State University, have achieved an efficiency rate for organic solar cells of almost 6 percent. In order to be considered a viable technology, the solar cells must be able to convert about 10 percent of the energy in sunlight to electricity. Wake Forest researchers hope to reach 10 percent by October 2006, said David Carroll, director of the nanotechnology center at Wake Forest. More at newswise

Sharp Corporation Raises Solar Cell Production Capacity

November 2, 2005 - In plans announced on Monday, Sharp Corporation said that the company will boost the solar cell production capacity of its Katsuragi plant in Nara Prefecture. The company's annual production capacity is being increased to 500 Megawatts, which represents an additional 85 Megawatts on previous plans.

Flexible Solar Cells on Polymer Foil Reach 14.1% Efficiency

November 4, 20005 - The Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) has set a new record for thin film solar cells on plastic (polyimide) foil. The research team of Professor Ayodhya Nath Tiwari, Dr. Dominik Rudmann and David Bremaud developed polycrystalline thin films solar cells of Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (called CIGS) on very thin polyimide foils at the Thin Film Physics Group, Laboratory for Solid State Physics, ETH Zurich. A multilayer structure of about 4 micron thickness was grown with a combination of thin film deposition methods. More at solarbuzz

October 29, 2005

Duke Power has announced that it is preparing a combined construction and operating license (COL) application for two Westinghouse Advanced Passive 1000 (AP1000) reactors at a site to be named following the conclusion of its current site selection study. The COL application, which is expected to be submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission within the next 24-30 months, is part of the company's long-term generation planning process, and will allow Duke Power to keep new nuclear generation as an option for meeting its customer's future energy needs.

The AP1000 design is based on the same Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology that has been used in in numerous power plants around the world. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has set up a process by which reactor designs can be certified prior to any actual construction plans. The certification process seeks to reduce site development time by resolving design issues prior to construction. The AP1000's status in this process is "finalizing certification" which should fit in well with Duke's construction plans. Design certification may occur simultaneously with site licensing or construction licensing.

October 23, 2005

Take an LED that produces intense, blue light. Coat it with a thin layer of special microscopic beads called quantum dots. And you have what could become the successor to the venerable light bulb. Chemists at Vanderbilt University have discovered a way to make quantum dots spontaneously produce broad-spectrum white light. In recent years LED's have begun to appear on the market that replace conventional light bulbs, but they have been quite expensive. They are more energy efficient than incandescent bulbs, last much longer and are very tough. An accidental discovery could transform lighting production into a primarily chemical process with accompanying economies. The easily produced quantum dots are mixed with a coating material, polyurethane, in the lab experiment, and coated on an inexpensive LED to make it a full spectrum light source.

And so esoteric quantum dots could become part of a mainstream commodity.

October 22, 2005

Oilsands Quest, as subsidiary of CanWest Petroleum Corporation has begun exploration that will identify quality and quality of bitumen of the companies resources on 846,000 acres of land in Northwest Saskatchewan, one of the largest land positions assembled for exploration in the Athabasca oil sands region. Drilling of the first 25 core-holes is expected to begin in a few days. This drilling represents the first phase of exploration to determine determine whether its lands adjacent to the Athabasca oil sands region in Alberta contain sufficient bitumen to justify development of the field. The first phase, to be conducted between October and December is to be followed by drilling of approximately 125 holes during winter.

Extraction of bitumen from tar sands is one of of the more controversial methods of extending our oil resources. The quantity is small compared to our total oil resources, but if it is economical and meets environmental standards, I will not argue against it. The region's economy is highly dependent on this activity. Production requires expenditure of about 30% of the energy contained in the resulting product, as well as questionable environmental impact. All of the province's environmental requirements are being met, but are they sufficient? Historically most of the energy has come from now declining supplies of natural gas. I would be in favor of requiring the oil companies to get their energy from waste products or from their refined products, which has only been done to a limited extent in the past. If there is truly stranded gas, gas that is uneconomical to pipeline, it is probably ok, but stranded gas should be defined so as not to be of use to the local economy now or in the future.

October 21, 2005

Energy Secretary Bodman has proposed new legislation to reduce the construction risk and to speed up licensing of four nuclear power plants that could be completed by 2014. The laws would apply to four nuclear plants planned to be built using new designs by General Electric and Westinghouse. The legislation would provide insurance against costs incurred because of regulatory delays and rules to make it harder to stop a plant from operating once it has been built. See this article from the San Diego Union-Tribune for more details.

We will need a large number of electric power plants to be built in the future due to obsolescence and increased demand, regardless of any efforts to conserve or use of renewable energy. While I prefer clean coal or IGCC plants with sequestration, they probably cannot be built fast enough to meet our requirements. Besides we need to continue to develop other technologies on a reasonable basis as we will, for all practical purposes, run out of fossil fuels in 50-100 years. While I have no strong objections to this legislation for the first four plants, it does set a precedent and must be written carefully too prevent it from being too lenient. I realize there are some who think this is not possible, but now is the time to lobby for responsible legilation, not after the plants have been approved through a proper review process.

October 17, 2005

The Union Pacific Railroad has ordered 98 diesel-electric hybrid RailPower road switcher locomotives for use in Texas. The locomotives are estimated to provide fuel savings of 20% to 40% with reductions in NOx and particulates of about 80%. The locomotives are designed to reduce fuel usage in road and branchline switching operations where locomotives use up to three times the amount consumed by yard switchers. Union Pacific will apply its recent $81 million dollar award from the Texas Emmisions Reduction Plan towards the purchase of these locomotives.

The locomotives are powered by large banks of batteries connected to the hybrid power-train. When the batteries start to become depleted, the clean-burning diesel engine kicks in to power a generator to recharge the batteries. The hybrid locomotives are the world's largest and heaviest hybrid vehicles in production.

This order is for 80 triple-genset and 18 twin-genset RP series switchers. In August Union Pacific purchased 10 hybrid yard switchers for use in California from Railpower. In March, the Canadian Pacific Railway said it would buy as many as 35 hybrid locomotives from RailPower over a four-year period.

Hybrid technology is ideal for locomotives, due largely to the absence of weight constraints. Switchers are deliberately designed to be heavy to gain maximum traction and they operate in an inefficient 'stop-go' manner that is hard on the large engines of conventional units. Unlike traditional switching locomotives, the hybrid switchers have very small diesel gensets, large banks of long-life, recyclable batteries, and do not idle.

October 13, 2005

SHOTT North America announced on October 3 that they have received their first large volume order for solar receivers. They will supply 19,300 receivers for the 64 MW plant to be built in partnership with Solargenix. On September 21 Solargenix announced that it had secured power purchase agreements with utilities and approval from the Public Utility Commission of Nevada which allows them to complete development of Nevada Solar One, the largest solar power plant to be built in 14 years. The plant is scheduled to begin delivering electricity in June 2007.

Solar thermal power plants use the thermal energy produced by the sun to generate electricity. Also called a parabolic trough power plants, they consist of three main components: mirrors, receivers and turbine technology. Nine parabolic trough power plants are already located in the Mojave Desert in California, developed by DOE and now owned and operated by public utilities, which produce a total of 354 megawatts of solar electricity. When these power plants were originally erected in California, SCHOTT also supplied high quality special glass tubes to cover and protect their receivers. In 2004, SCHOTT introduced a completely new receiver that offers substantially higher quality.

October 08, 2005

The Hydrogen Solar Ltd Tandem Cell™ is a self-contained unit which directly splits water molecules into high-purity hydrogen and oxygen using solar energy. It significantly reduces carbon emissions by eliminating the fossil fuels normally used in electrolysis or steam reforming to produce hydrogen.

Now for an explanation of their system. A flow cell, through which the water electrolyte passes, is in the front of the stack, the light passes through this cell to the Tandem Cell™ which consists of two photo-catalytic cells in series: the front cell, coated with nano-crystalline metal oxide thin films, absorbs the ultraviolet and blue light from sunlight and oxygen is formed on the surface. This cell does not generate enough voltage to split the water, so the electrons are connected to the back cell. The longer wave-length green and red light pass through the front cell and are absorbed in the back dye-solar cell, increasing the potential of the electrons, which then flow to the hydrogen cathode where the hydrogen is formed. This is not the arrangement used in real modules, but illustrates the principle, if this arrangement were used, a transparent membrane would have to be placed in the water cell to separate the hydrogen and oxygen. No external electricity is required. The process is renewable, produces no carbon dioxide or other emissions.

The cells are made from low cost materials. The most expensive material used is the glass that the cells are made from. The thin film semiconductors are iron or tungsten based rather than more expensive silicon materials. The process is now competitive, on the small scale, producing hydrogen at one third the cost than from PV solar panel-electrolysis systems. On the large scale it was, mid 2004, about twice the cost of steam reforming with natural gas.

October 04, 2005

A natural gas fired cogeneration power plant in New York state is being converted to run exclusively on a renewable source. Work has started to convert the 7 MW Laidlaw Energy Group plant so that it can run on wood chips to supply of electricity to the national grid as well as supplying heat and power to operate an on-site hardwood lumber dry kiln.

Aided by a $1m grant from the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Laidlaw has completed the design and engineering for the project, procured the requisite equipment and entered into an agreement that provides for the fixed price construction of the project. The facility is expected to resume commercial operations midway through next year.

Is this a great sign of the times! Natural gas is just too expensive and too scarce to be used for power generation.

PHYSORG.COM reported today that Lehigh University researchers have developed a cost-effective technique for reducing mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants. The reductions were reportedly achieved by modifying the physical conditions of power-plant boilers, including flue gas temperature, the size of the coal particles that are burned, the size and unburned carbon level of the fly ash, and the fly ash residence time. The modifications promote the in-flight capture of mercury. See "Boiler modifications cut mercury emissions."

In another article they reported that researchers at the University of Wisconsin had developed tiny lithium ion batteries with a lifetime of 12 years for use in implantable medical applications. Using organosilicon compounds, the team has developed a generation of rechargeable lithium ion batteries with lifetimes more than twice as long as current medical device batteries. See "New battery technology power for 12 years."

September 30, 2005

Thermal solar systems are having a heyday with several announcements of installations in the US and in Spain. International Automated Systems, Inc. (IAS) announced that it had secured a site for its first 1 MW concentrating solar power plant. Once in operation, the company hopes to expand beyond several 100 Megawatts. The company claims its breakthrough solar power technology may become the first solar to compete with gas. Low-cost energy produced by the company's new patented and patent-pending solar technology can be used to generate electricity or produce clean fuels such as hydrogen and green methanol (gasoline replacements) at a competitive price.

The plant will be located in Southern California. IAS expects to complete construction of the solar power plant during the first quarter 2006. According to the company website; "IAS’s unique thin-film lens focuses the sun’s energy, producing super-heated steam for power generation. IAS’s panels are inexpensive, efficient, and require virtually no maintenance. Typical solar reflector panels (e.g. solar dishes, troughs, heliostats) are expensive and require a great deal of maintenance to sustain a solar focal point. Once installed, IAS’s lenses need no further adjustment."

According to a July 27 press release; "IAS's unique thin-film solar panels can be produced at a fraction of the cost of today's photovoltaic solar panels. IAS is on schedule to begin mass production of its solar panels by September 2005. Once in production, IAS will be able to turn out nearly 200 megawatts of solar panels yearly, nearly 10 times greater capacity than a $100 million photovoltaic fabrication plant."

Not really much technical information about their equipment. The company, founded in 1988, has yet to report any revenue. It sounds like they may generate steam directly, without using a heat transfer fluid as most trough collectors do. They are developing a variety of high technology equipment including a bladeless turbine being demonstrated at various geothermal power plants. They could be using this turbine to generate electricity. They do not say that they have sold the equipment, so it may be possible that they plan on paying for the units by selling the electricity. That would be a good deal if the units are as reliable and inexpensive as they claim.

September 29, 2005

Processes that uses an amonia based solutions to capture SOx, NOx,CO2, Hg and particulates from power plant flue gas have or will be demonstrated at FirstEnergy's R.E. Burger Plant in Shadyside, Ohio. The ECO technology produces a commercially salable, ammonium sulfate nitrate fertilizer co-product, reducing operating costs and avoiding landfill disposal of waste. The CO2 is to be recovered and prepared for sequestration in another process. After regeneration the ammonia solution from the CO2 capture will be recycled. FirstEnergy Corp. and Powerspan Corp., a clean energy technology company, announced plans to pilot test the CO2 removal technology beginning in late 2006. The pilot test will follow successful demonstration of Powerspan's patented Electro-Catalytic Oxidation (ECO(R)) multi-pollutant control technology that converts pollutants into fertilizer. The CO2 capture process is expected to be readily integrated with the ECO technology, which uses aqueous ammonia to absorb high levels of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and mercury.

September 28, 2005

How would you like a jacket that would charge your MP3 player or PDA? Konarka and Textron think you would. The two have formed a joint development program to create prototype garments and fashion accessories with portable, wearable power-generation capabilities. The technology will utilize Konarka's light-activated Power Plastic(TM) and Textronics' electronic textile systems to provide renewable, wearable energy sources for personal electronic devices. By combining the two technologies they hope to develop garments that will overcome the shortcomings of conventional power technologies by enabling consumers to have energy generation ability with them at all times.

The resulting systems will be flexible and integrated in a way that will retain many of the qualities of conventional textiles, providing an overall consumer experience that is more like wearing a jacket or carrying a messenger bag than charging a device. Konarka's added abilities to provide colored and patterned Power Plastic technology will allow for innovative aesthetic solutions.

"This joint effort will show designer-label manufacturers how we can bring new benefits to consumers through their everyday clothing and fashion accessories, including increased levels of convenience, freedom of use and performance while minimally affecting the garment's overall weight, size or appearance," said Daniel Patrick McGahn, Konarka's executive vice president and chief marketing officer.

Konarka builds products that convert light to energy – anywhere. Konarka is the leading developer of polymer photovoltaic products that provide a source of renewable power in a variety of form factors for commercial, industrial, government and consumer applications. Konarka’s photovoltaic nanotechnology is focused on delivering lightweight, flexible, scalable and manufacturable products. Unlike other photovoltaic technologies that incorporate glass, Konarka's technology is polymer-based, making it lightweight and portable. The company's PV module technology converts both sun and indoor light into direct current (DC) electrical energy and can be incorporated into a wide range of applications for an economical, versatile power source.

Textronics is a developer and producer of electro-textiles or “e-textiles,” which are fabric systems that can conduct, warm, illuminate or sense. The company’s unique technology portfolio uses the stretch and recovery properties of elastomeric materials to interact with electronic systems. Electro-textiles are used in the apparel, automotive, industrial, home interior, healthcare, and communications business sectors to deliver enhanced safety, comfort, heath, communications, entertainment and aesthetic solutions.

September 24, 2005

The native-American Hualapai Tribe has issued an RFP for a renewable energy electric utility for their isolated 9,000 acre tourism enterprise, Grand Canyon West (GCW). The Hualapai Tribe has received a $2 million grant from the USDA Rural Utilities Service to build electric generation and distribution infrastructure at GCW. The solar hybrid power system will initially be sized at 250 kW with expansion to 2 MW anticipated. Innovative technology is anticipated to meet overnight and cloudy day loads.

This seems like a very good use of renewable energy technology at this time. Whether a grant to pay for the whole project is justified is another question. Certainly some subsidy is justified as it would not be possible to get power from a utility at this location and building your own utility is prohibitively expensive on this small scale. I think this is a better use for taxpayers money than many other causes.

September 20, 2005

Anuvu Incorporated has scheduled production and delivery of a fuel cell-powered Neighborhood Electric Vehicle with On-Board Power generator to Reg Technologies Inc. for evaluation and testing. The design for the fuel cell power system for golf carts/NEVs would be a universal range extending power package that would be added to existing vehicle designs. The fuel cell would provide 2.5 kW of net power to the NEV, providing substantial range extension and enhanced performance over the entire duty cycle.

The plant, with a cost of 250 million eur, will have 350,000 solar panels spread over 114 hectares near the southern town of Moura and will be able to produce 62 megawatts, more than six times the largest existing solar power station in Germany.

Solar photovoltaic cells would be designed to exploit photonic- bandgap (PBG) materials to enhance their energy-conversion efficiencies, according to a proposal. Whereas the energy- conversion efficiencies of currently available solar cells are typically less than 30 percent, it has been estimated that the energy-conversion efficiencies of the proposed cells could be about 50 percent or possibly even greater. Read more here.

September 19, 2005

Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) electric power plants seem to becoming accepted as state of the art technology with the announcement that plants totaling 1,200 megawatts of capacity would be built. IGCC plants convert coal into gas that is burned in turbines to power electric generators. The process can significantly decreases emissions of nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, particulates and mercury to well below that required by environmental regulations. The process reduces CO2 emissions by about 20%, but can isolate the CO2 into a separate stream if a means for disposal were available. Sequestration technologies have not been demonstrated on a large scale. The 2005 energy bill included funding for the Future Gen plant which incorporates sequestration technology.

According to a 9/16/05 article in the Charleston Daily Mail an executive from Appalachian Power Company, a subsidiary of American Electric Power, said that he is convinced that a $1 billion, 1,200 MW IGCC plant will be constructed in West Virginia.

According to a 9/19/05 press release, "United Solar Ovonic has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with Tianjin Jinneng Investment Company (TJIC) to form a joint venture to establish a 25-megawatt (MW) thin-film triple-junction amorphous silicon photovoltaic module manufacturing operation in Tianjin, the People's Republic of China.

In addition to its existing 25 MW photovoltaic manufacturing plant, United Solar Ovonic broke ground in July 2005 for its second state-of-the-art solar module manufacturing plant in Auburn Hills, Mich., to double its U.S. solar cell/module manufacturing capacity. Occupancy of the new facility is scheduled for May 2006, and it is anticipated that the plant will begin manufacturing products in the fall of 2006.

Compared to conventional solar technology utilizing single crystal or polycrystal silicon, United Solar Ovonic’s thin-film solar cells are 100 times thinner, do not use crystalline silicon material and, therefore, are unaffected by the scarcity of silicon worldwide. The products, unlike conventional glass-based PV products, are lightweight, flexible and rugged and can be aesthetically integrated into buildings.

United Solar Ovonics is the world leader in thin-film amorphous photovoltaics. Its existing 25-megawatt production equipment is the world’s largest and most advanced machine for the manufacture of thin-film amorphous silicon alloy solar cells and related products used for a variety of applications ranging from large solar farms for utility-scale applications to charging batteries for solar lanterns. UNI-SOLAR® solar cells are lightweight, rugged and flexible, and are ideal as building-integrated photovoltaic roofing systems for residential and industrial customers. ECD Ovonics and United Solar Ovonic hold the basic patents covering the continuous roll-to-roll manufacturing of thin-film amorphous silicon alloy multi-junction solar cells and related products. More information on United Solar Ovonic can be found at www.uni-solar.com".

A full copy of the press release can be found here. (application/msword)

A previous post that discussed thin-film amorphous silicon cell technology can be found here.

September 16, 2005

This year scientists at Brookhaven National Laboratory have discovered two ways of improving the conductivity of "high temperature" superconductors (HTCs). They have found that both increasing the substrate roughness and adding calcium to boundaries between the grains of superconductors can significantly increase the current carrying capacity.

A superconductor is a material that conducts electricity with no resistance. These discoveries are important steps in creating superconductor-based electric and power-delivery devices, such as power transmission lines, motors, and generators. “High-temperature” superconductors are conductors that superconduct at temperatures much “warmer” than conventional superconductors (although still very cold) — for example, -300°F rather than -440°F. This difference, while not huge, is enough to make HTCs more viable for practical applications than materials that must be kept much colder.

The superconducting material they studied is a "cuprate," dubbed YBCO consisting of the elements yttrium, barium, copper and oxygen. YBCO films are deposited onto a ‘normal’ metal surface (the “substrate”), forming components known as coated conductors. They found that nanoscale corrugated surfaces on the substrate produces a 30 percent increase in the current carried by the YBCO films. They had previously thought that surface roughness degraded the performance of HTSCs.

HTSCs are made of many tiny crystalline grains. The boundaries between grains act like barriers to electrical flow. Previously scientists had discovered that adding calcium to the boundries between the grains improved the conductivity, seemingly because the calcium changed the electric-charge structure at the boundaries. In the latest discovery it was found that the chemical structure was changed by adding the calcium and that is what leads to improved conductivity. The importance of this discovery is that it means that similarly sized elements could be equally or more effective than calcium.

This technology is increasingly important as the energy loss in electrical transmission lines is already very significant. If we are to become more dependent on electrical generation methods that are geographically restricted; such as solar, wind, ocean power and geothermal; this technology becomes even more important. Commercial use of this technology is far away, but I believe some early, small scale experiments with transmission lines have been conducted.

August 29, 2005

Researchers have identified a chemical, triazole, that could allow PEM fuel cells to operate more efficiently. Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells are the the most promising fuel cells for portable use such as automobiles. A team lead by Dr. Meilin Liu, a professor in the School of Materials Science and Engineering at Georgia Tech, has discovered that a chemical called triazole is significantly more effective than similar chemicals researchers have explored to increase conductivity and reduce moisture dependence in polymer membranes.

A fuel cell essentially produces electricity by converting the chemicals, hydrogen and oxygen, into water. Proton exchange membranes used in fuel cells are a specially treated material that looks a lot like plastic wrap. It allows protons to pass through it virtually unimpeded, while electrons are blocked. The membrane is the key to building a better fuel cell.

Replacing water in the membrane with triazole has several positive effects:

Previously membranes needed to operate at temperatures below 100 °C, usually about 80 °C, in order to retain the moisture needed to conduct protons. Replacing the water in the membrane with triazole allows the fuel cell to operate at higher temperatures and thus more efficiently.

The conductivity of the membrane is increased.

The triazole-containing membranes operating at 120 °C eliminated the need for a water management system and dramatically reduced the cost and complexity of the membrane cooling system.

The higher operating temperature, allows the use of lower purity hydrogen. When operationg at lower temperatures; expensive, very high purity hydrogen, without traces of carbon monoxide, is required to prevent poisoning of the very sensitive catalyst required at these conditions.

While they have pushed their polymer fuel cells to 120 degrees Celsius with triazole, Liu’s team is looking into better polymers to get those temperatures even higher, he said.

August 21, 2005

High oil prices, declining oil production - these subjects seem to monopolize thepetroleum/peak oil headlines. One small piece of good news is Venezuela's recent announcement that they plan on building three new oil refineries.

Venezuela president Chavez said the state oil company, PDVSA, plans on building three new oil refineries in coming years and that his government would be willing to discuss establishing a new OPEC price band for world oil prices. Two new refineries will have a capacity of 50,000 barrels a day each, and a third would process as much as 400,000 barrels a day. "We also plan to expand other refineries such as the ones in Puerto La Cruz, and El Palito so they can process heavy crude," Chavez said.

These refineries will not make up for the loss of oil from depletion, in other parts of the world, during the time that they are built, but at least it is some slowing of the decline of oil production. What will the refineries, already built, do to maintain their supply of oil? Many of them couldn't handle the heavy oil that these refineries will use, a growing problem in many refineries, so maybe they just operate at lower capacity since they will have trouble finding crude. And what is this about a new price band? It surely can't be lower than the $50.00 - $60.00 price range that I last heard from OPEC.

The press certainly has caught on to the high prices of oil, and in some cases its relationship to declining oil production, as is evidenced by these headlines. Read a few of these articles if you have missed them or just want to gain some insight into the current price crises.

August 20, 2005

GE Global Research has developed a 'perfect' carbon nanotube diode, which should allow development of smaller, faster electronic devices and more efficient solar systems. They describe the discovery as an ideal carbon nanotube diode that operates at the 'theoretical limit. The ideal efficiency of the nanotubes gives them an advantage over other diodes where heat generation is a concern that often limits the use of small computer chips. The tiny nanotubes photovoltaic effect has "broad implications for solar energy." "The discovery of a photovoltaic effect in our nanotube device could lead to exciting breakthroughs in solar cells that make them more efficient and a more viable alternative in the mainstream energy market." Products using this technology most likely will not be available for many years in the future.

A scanning electron microscope (SEM) image of the carbon nanotube diode is shown at left. The "hairline" running diagonally across the "black bar" in this photograph is the carbon nanotube, which is about 80,000 times smaller than a human hair. A nanotube is about 1.4 nanometers in diameter compared to current microprocessor transistors which are in the 65 nanometer range.

This could rank as the most important discovery of the year, if not the decade. Keep a watch out for this technology to appear in commercial products.

August 17, 2005

VP Dick Cheney is going to Alberta next month and will visit the Canadian oil sands. He is expected to tour one of the major oil sands projects in Fort McCray, meet Deputy Prime Minister Anne Malcolm speak to the Fraser Institute in Calgary and go hunting and fishing at an undisclosed site according to a August 17 article on the GLOBEANDMAIL.COM.

The oil sands have been receiving a lot of interest lately. China, France, Germany and big oil all have been showing interest in the oil sands, touted as having the largest oil reserves outside of Saudi Arabia.

August 15, 2005

A less expensive, more reliable oil production technology that is safer and reduces environmental impact is being commercialized by Completion Concepts Inc., Katy, TX. The apparatus could significantly increase production of heavy oil, an enormous resource that constitutes as much as half of the world’s oil-in-place. Much of America’s heavy oil is produced via a costly steam injection enhanced oil recovery method to produce a crude oil grade that is lower in quality and thus sells for less.

The apparatus, called a Teleperfs", is a telescoping devices that is projected into the face of a formation, anchoring a well liner in place and providing entry ports for formation fluids.

Initially developed through a DOE funded Small Business Innovative Research grant and furthered by an industry consortium, Completion Concepts, Inc. devised a method for production of heavy oil that eliminates certain expenses and risks and offers a low-cost alternative for inhibiting production of sand in an oil well. Read the complete announcement here.

Any technology that increases our oil consumption at lower cost will certainly be appreciated. I assume it might find application in the Canadian tar sands and Venezuela besides the fields that were mentioned in California and Alaska.

August 11, 2005

New energy sources could make petroleum obsolete. Automobile efficiency could be increased to 92 mpg, light truck mileage to 66 mpg. This could be done with lightweight construction and hybrid vehicles. Better aerodynamics and materials could greatly improve the efficiency of 18 wheelers and jetliners. 20% of fuel could be replaced with biofuels.

This would only require a $180 billion investment that starting in 2025 would save $155 billion every year.

Newsweek had the complete article at the above link in their 8/8/05 issue.

I believe they had the numbers to put this plan together. When are market forces and our legislatures going to put it all together? Maybe by 2025. This article makes it sound so easy. Wouldn't it be nice if we could just wave a magic wand. Even if all their assumptions were right, which I don't dispute, some of the technology would take until 2025 to be fully developed. I hope the hybrid vehicle part comes true a lot sooner and that biofuels are ramped up by that date. The general population and industry are going to have to have a bigger shock than we have had so far in convincing them that the oil shortage is permanent.

August 05, 2005

A proposed offshore project, known as the Ormonde project, in the UK would combine the installation of a 108 MW wind farm with 93 MW of natural gas generation. The wind turbines would provide electricity when the winds are blowing and any shortage of power can be made up by the gas generator during calm weather. The system could thus mitigate the intermittency of the wind turbines. Both systems could operate at the same time if needed, supplying 200 MW of electricity to provide for the most flexible needs of the grid. Gas would be supplied from two small, previously undeveloped gas fields located near the platform, located 10 km off the coast of Barrow-in- Furness, Cumbria. The project plans to begin generation of electricity in 2007. For further information see the website of Eclipse Energy Company Limited, developers of the project.

June 30, 2005

June 28 - Fusion took a giant step closer to becoming a commercial reality today, as France was selected to host a $13 billion experimental nuclear fusion project that scientists hope will eventually produce a clean, safe and endless energy resource and help phase out polluting fossil fuels. An experimental device called the "International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)" will be built in France. ITER is hopefully the step that will bridge the gap between today’s studies of plasma physics and tomorrow's electricity-producing fusion power plants. The goal of the project is to demonstrate methods of extracting the power of nuclear fusion. Fusion is the same process that goes on in the center of the sun in which energy is produced when the hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium are fused together to form helium, while releasing huge quantities of heat.

The ITER Tokamak, a magnetic containment device, would be the first fusion device to produce thermal energy at levels equivalent to conventional electricity power plants, and would demonstrate the technology necessary for the first prototype commercial fusion power plant. It is based around a hydrogen plasma torus operating at over 100 million °C, and will produce 500 MW of fusion power. It would work by heating isotopes of hydrogen to hundreds of millions of degrees, creating a plasma of charged particles.

June 19, 2005

The following are excerpts from President Bush's June 15th remarks to the 16th Annual Energy Efficiency Forum

The primary cause of rising gasoline prices is that the global demand for oil is growing faster than global supply....The first step toward making America less dependent on foreign oil is to improve conservation and efficiency....Hybrid vehicles are one of the most promising technologies immediately available to consumers....I propose that every American who purchases a hybrid vehicle receive a tax credit of up to $4,000....We are also encouraging automakers to produce a new generation of modern, clean-diesel cars and trucks.... Congress should extend the tax incentives for the purchase of hybrid vehicles to clean diesel cars and trucks....the Environmental Protection Agency is working to simplify rules and regulations for refinery expansion....my administration launched an ambitious program called the Hydrogen Fuel Initiative. The energy bill will authorize additional funds for this vital initiative. With bold investments now, we can begin to replace a hydrocarbon economy with a hydrogen economy....We've got to be aggressive about finding alternative sources of fuel. And one such source is ethanol....I like the idea of spending money on research to make ethanol more feasible....we can get the same type of alternative fuel from soybeans. It's called biodiesel....To encourage greater use of ethanol and biodiesel, my administration supports a flexible, cost-effective renewable fuel standard.... This proposal would require fuel producers to include a certain percentage of ethanol and biodiesel in their fuel. I proposed $84 million in the 2006 budget for ongoing research into advanced technologies that can produce ethanol from farms, forests, or even municipal waste dumps.... the Department of Energy is funding research and development of super-conducting power lines. It's important research because it will enable us to more efficiently move electricity....One day, technologies like solar panels and high-efficiency appliances and advanced insulation could even allow us to build "zero-energy homes" that produce as much energy as they consume....My budget for 2006 brings clean coal funding to $1.6 billion over five years....Congress needs to pass the Clear Skies Initiative....passing it, not only will we clean the environment, but it will result in tens of billions of dollars in clean coal investments by private companies....to further increase our natural gas supply, Congress needs to make clear federal authority to choose sites for new receiving terminals for liquefied natural gas....We need to expand our nation's use of nuclear power....So I've directed the Department of Energy to work with Congress to help pass legislation that will reduce uncertainty in the nuclear plant licensing process....such as federal insurance to protect the builders of the first four new plants against lawsuits, bureaucratic obstacles, and other delays beyond their control.

In general I support these ideas. However (my cynical side), I don't think these remarks have much to do with what actually gets enacted into law. It is good too see that the president acknowledges that demand rather than supply is driving our pending energy shortage. His emphasis on hybrid cars is encouraging. $84 million for research on alternative fuels seems like such a pittance compared to the billions on the hydrogen initiative and the clean coal program. I know that his remarks on coal and nuclear energy will be controversial, but I believe that we have no choice but to go ahead with these programs. The clean coal program, which includes sequestration, is the one sure thing we have to fall back on. The environmental issues associated with coal mining are probably not addressed and could and should be. Building four nuclear power plants (I thought it was to be three) is essential to demonstrate that safer nuclear plants can be built. I personally think that a fuel recycling program should be initiated to take care of our mounting nuclear wastes, rather than using the Yucca Mountain storage scheme. If the hydrogen economy ever becomes a reality (I hope not) our coal reserves will deplete rapidly and nuclear may be our only option. Development of a massive renewable fuels program would be a much wiser use of our tax dollars.

June 14, 2005

92% of the respondents to the Spring 2005 Yale Survey on American Attitudes on the Environment thought that dependence on foreign oil was a serious problem and 93% of them thought that requiring the auto industry to make cars that get better gas mileage was the best solution. 90% thought that building more solar power plants was a good idea and 88% thought that building more wind power plants was a good idea. 89% thought jobs/economy was a serious problem and 74% thought global warming was our a serious problem. Detaled results of the survey can be found here.

"This poll suggests that Washington is out of touch with the American people - Republicans, Democrats and Independents, young and old, men and women-even S.U.V. drivers-embrace investments in new energy technologies, including better gas mileage in vehicles," said Dan Esty, director of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, which commissioned the survey.

If 93% if Americans understand the importance of gas mileage standards on reducing our dependence on foreign oil, why doesn't congress get it!! Obviously congressional votes are being influenced by someone besides the taxpayer. Make sure they get your opinion.

May 13, 2005

I try not to focus primarily on Peak Oil, but rather on the technologies that replace oil. However because peak oil is so near, my belief that we have entered "The Energy Revolution" is reinforced by these two items, relating to peak oil, that were referenced in the Energy Bulletin today. They stand on there own without further comment.

A 'Peak' Behind the Curtain At The EIA In the blog Searching for Truth discusses "the startling disconnect that exists between the long term global oil supply and demand projections that are released each year by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) and those that are offered by oil depletion experts such as Matthew Simmons, Kenneth Deffeyes and Colin Campbell ... The "technology assumptions" included in the EIA reference case have the the utility of permitting the very real physical and geologic constraints that threaten to curtail future oil production to be demphasized or ignored altogether." This relatively new blog has several other posts on Peak Oil which you might find worth reading.

End of the Age of Oil, part one, in AMIN (Arabic Media Internet Network) leads off with "Humanity is facing, now-a-days, the beginning of the biggest and the most severe global crisis in its history. This crisis will touch the lives of all nations and will change the course of their history. It will destroy the economies of nations, overhaul global politics, incite extreme competitions, provoke power struggles, and break out devastating wars among nations." The story goes on to suggest that the war for oil between the U.S and China. "No body has any doubt that American invasion of Afghanistan and of Iraq was for oil ... United States are not the only aggressive seeker after oil. China had recently followed suit."

May 10, 2005

May 9, The Algerian Oil mister was quoted as saying "Even if OPEC pumps at full capacity it may not be able to meet strong fourth quarter demand without sufficient inventories being built up beforehand. ... People are still worried that despite that we will be producing at full (capacity) we are not going to meet (demand), that’s what people are worried about and they are also worried about what will come next year ... They have to be concerned because we are not going to have any surplus capacity available ... What’s the use of having a lot of oil if you can’t refine it or cannot stock enough products to be used in the winter time ... Saudi Arabia, and others, including Libya and ourselves have taken decisions so you are going to see a lot of new refinery capacity but not within the next two to three years"

Congressman Bartlett, Republican, Maryland, gave the third of four planned speeches on peak oil and potential remedies to congress today. He is getting a modest amount of coverage in the press and does not have seemed to aroused any action by his fellow congressmen. He does have several good points 1) even if we are not at peak oil now, our demand is growing so fast that we may not have enough supply 2) that ANWR is but a blip and not going to make much difference 3) the Chinese are securing oil contracts around the world 4) that our coal reserves could deplete in 40 years if we don't find alternatives. The first three speeches seem pretty repetitive, he really doesn't have much to say about remedies.

Bartlett voted no on the energy bill: "I voted no because the energy bill falls far short of President Bush's strategy to respond to the reality of threats to America's economic and national security from our dependence upon cheap imported oil. Oil isn't forever."

Does Bush have any strategy except to support big oil and push hydrogen?

May 09, 2005

I heard James Howard Kunstler last night explaining his views on the consequences of peak oil as contained in his book, The Long Emergency.. It was his version of my "The Energy Revolution." Although I am a couple of weeks late I thought it was worth mentioning. His views are much more pessimistic than mine. But who is too say that they are not a realistic view of what is yet to come. The following are some (sometimes paraphrased) views as he wrote in a recent "Rolling Stone" article.

Americans are complacent about the price of gasoline ... Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era ... The few Americans who are even aware that there is a gathering global-energy predicament usually misunderstand the core of the argument ... The best estimates of when the "global oil-production peak" would occur had been between now and 2010 ... the most knowledgeable experts revised their predictions and now concur that 2005 is apt to be the year of all-time global peak production ... We know that our national leaders are hardly uninformed about this predicament (he quoted Hirsch and Bush and Chaney are well aquantied with Simmon's views) ... No combination of alternative fuels will allow us to run American life the way we have been used to running it ... The widely touted "hydrogen economy" is a particularly cruel hoax ... Wishful notions about rescuing our way of life with "renewables" are also unrealistic ... If we wish to keep the lights on in America after 2020, we may indeed have to resort to nuclear power ... The upshot of all this is that we are entering a historical period of potentially great instability, turbulence and hardship ... there is the problem of China ... The Long Emergency will require us to downscale and re-scale virtually everything we do and how we do it ... The American economy of the mid-twenty-first century may actually center on agriculture, not information, not high tech, not "services" ... WalMart's "warehouse on wheels" won't be such a bargain in a non-cheap-oil economy ... ordinary goods will probably be made on a "cottage industry" basis ... The automobile will be a diminished presence in our lives, to say the least ... America today has a railroad system that the Bulgarians would be ashamed of ... The commercial aviation industry, already on its knees financially, is likely to vanish ... These are daunting and even dreadful prospects ... The survivors will have to cultivate a religion of hope.

In a January speech he echoed a similar commentary. The global peak oil production event will change everything about how we live ... As of the past 12 months, Saudi Arabia seems to have lost the ability to function as swing producer ... Long before the oil actually depletes we will endure world-shaking political disturbances and economic disruptions ... We believe that if you wish for something, it will come true ... Cars will be a diminished presence in our lives ... The implications are clear: we will have to downscale and re-scale virtually everything we do ... We are going to have to live a lot more locally ... many types of corporations and governments will function very poorly in the post-cheap oil world ... All indications are that American life will have to be reconstituted along the lines of traditional towns, villages, and cities much reduced in their current scale ... We are entering a period of economic hardship and declining incomes ... Change is coming whether we like it or not; whether we are prepared for it or not.

While I disagree with many of his statements, the consequences of the end of cheap oil are going to be significant. We need an energy policy that more aggressively addresses these problems. We need mandated energy efficient cars and much more aggressive development of alternate liquid fuels. We need to reassign our priorities, away from hydrogen, to nearer term, realistic solutions.

May 06, 2005

Penn State researchers have demonstrated that hydrogen can be recovered from wastewater. An article on the Renewable Energy Access Website tells about the process which can produce four times the hydrogen than can be produced directly by fermentation. They use the same microbial fuel cell (MFC) that they have developed to clean wastewater and produce electricity. To produce hydrogen they keep the oxygen out of the MFC and add a small amount of power to the system. They call their hydrogen producing MFC a BioElectricrochemically Assisted Microbial Reactor or BEMAR.

Only a tiny amount of electricity, about 0.25 volts is applied across an annode and a cathode inserted in the BEMAR. In a university press release the process is described in more detail. When bacterial eat the biomass contained in wastewater, they transfer electrons to the anode. The bacteria also release protons which go into the solution. The electrons migrate via a wire to the cathode where they are eltrochemically assisted to combine with the protons to form hydrogen gas.

A paper titled "Electrochemical Assisted Microbial Production of Hydrogen from Acetate" fully describes the approach. The paper was authored by Hong Liu, a post graduate researcher; Stephen Grot, president and founder of Ion Power, Inc.; and Dr Bruce Logan, professor of environmental engineering and inventor of the MFC. Grot is a former Penn State student who suggested the idea of modifying the MFC to generate hydrogen.

Links at Logan's website reveal the following: The process releases about 50% of the hydrogen locked up in the biomass. At this efficiency, if all the domestic wasetewater was treated by this process, about 4000 MW of electricity could be produced. While this process will not sustain a hydrogen economy, it could offset the substantial costs of wastewater treatment.

This sounds like a very useful and environmentally friendly use of hydrogen if it all works out. How about a fuel tank full of wastewater providing power for your car?

May 02, 2005

Gasoline will be $3.00 per gallon in fourth quarter.(I assume he means national average, it is somewhere around $2.15 now.)

Oil will never see $40 per barrel again.

Demand will be 86-87 million gpd in fourth quarter.

Production is limited to 84 million gpd.

Expansion of existing refineries could handle any increase in supply.

We don't need any new refineries because their is no production to supply them.

The economy may be slowing down, but gasoline sales are not slowing.

He has been an accurate forecaster more often than not. I assume he means that we can draw off of our reserves to tide us over in the 4th quarter, otherwise peak oil is here. He did say something about peak oil, but I didn't catch it. While looking to see if they had anything about his comments on the CNBC site, I didn't find any, but I came across this tidbit:

Including Iraqi production, OPEC's current output would beat levels of over 30 million bpd pumped late last year that took OPEC supply to 25-year highs.

I don't think they have much more than that and they are near peak, despite their claims otherwise.

May 01, 2005

As reported in the April 24 Washington Post, the largest energy deal in history was a $12.8 billion joint venture announced in February between state-owned Qatargas and oil majors Exxon Mobil and Total. A single $7 billion plant to be built by Exxon Mobil to turn natural gas into diesel (GTL) is the largest investment ever by America's largest company. Other companies are investing more billions into Qatar's natural gas resources. According to some economists, per capita income in Qatar will be the highest in the world.

While this is not earth-shaking news to most, it make the point very well -- big oil is interested in doing what they know best. Tar sands, heavy oil, renewables, etc do not have the ROI of natural gas and more conventional oil projects as long as their is something more profitable to do. The gas to oil facility uses fairly new technology (maybe not really, but it is new to big oil), but it has been well researched and working with a clean feedstock, like natural gas, is far easier than gasification and liquefaction of biomass or even coal. They will and perhaps they should (from their investors point of view) follow this road. It is up to governments to develop and demonstrate emerging technologies. Since the U.S. government does not seem to believe that we have as an urgent need, it is up to us to convince them that oil is running out soon and that we need to be working much harder to mitigate the coming crises. I have a minority belief that big oil does not have a much greater influence on the federal government than most other lobbyists do, rather it is not politically wise for the administration to solve any problems that are not immediately threatening. As long as EIA maintains that we do not have an immediate problem, they can hide their heads in the sands and ignore any other sources of information, including Bush's former advisor Simmons. The Hirsch report and the ORNL report are noble cries from the wilderness, but are they having any impact? In the final analysis the only ones they will listen to are the voters.

April 27, 2005

A Peak Oil Conference, Entering the Age of Oil Depletion, organized by Depletion Scotland and the Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC), held in Edinburgh Scotland is generating a lot of publicity. Most of the speakers are familiar to peak oil aficionados. A complete summary of the proceedings is too lengthy for me to enumerate, but I will give a few and references to all of the articles I have found.

Nothing really new, but for neophytes, in alphabetical order, the dates when peak oil will occur as reported at the meeting.

Kyjell Aleklett of ASPO, "Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas", in a presentation called "The oil supply tsunami alert" said the peak was 2008 in 2004. Now it might be that the peak will come even earlier. ... we will not know when have peaked until we have passed the threshold.

Colin Campbell was quoted by John Vidal of the Guardian as saying "The real issue is not the actual date of peak production - which I believe is next year (2006) - but what happens during the decline of production.

Also in the Guardian, Vidal referred to the International Energy Agency (IEA) ... as saying that peak oil will arrive "sometime between 2013 and 2037", with production thereafter expected to decline by about 3% a year. Reuters reported that IEA says that world oil oil output should not peak before 2030.

Dr Jeremy Leggett, a member of the UK government's Renewables Advisory Board and a former oil geologist was quoted by the BBC as saying "Most of us who are worried about this issue would say definitely it will happen some time this decade. ... 2008 might be the best guess, plus or minus two years. It's certainly a lot earlier than almost all the world is assuming at the moment. ... We need to take this issue as seriously as we take the war on terrorism - more so. In a very good article "The twilight zone" that appeared in The Independent, he previewed his presentation saying "But no one can agree when we'll reach the point at which half our oil reserves are used up."

Matthew Simmons, chairman of a Wall Street energy investment company, was reported by Vidal as saying that peak Oil was rapidly approaching even as demand was increasing.

Chris Skrebowski, of the the Energy Institute in London told Vidal, I estimate that we have, at best, 32 months before (the crisis) hits."

According to Vidal "Analysts increasingly say that official US Geological Survey (USGS)estimates that it (peak oil) will not happen for 35 years are over-optimistic."

Brian Wilson, former UK energy minister "my working assumption is both global oil and gas reserves continue to be significantly underestimated."

Several comments were made on the economic implications of peak oil.

Aleklett said that "The fact that the price of crude oil is approaching $60 per barrel and the production costs for the barrel fluctuates between $1 and $10 shows that common economical theories are not valid any longer, something new is in the air and the question how to interpret today's vibrations."

Hirsch in his recent report to DOE was quoted by Aleklett as claiming that "World oil peaking represents a problem like none other. The political, economic, and social stakes are enormous. Prudent risk management demands urgent attention and early action. If you start a serious program today it will take 20 years before completion.

Campbell said "Oil companies are moving from denial to confession ... I think we are in for an extended period of restricted economic activity. I do not think we will adjust very smoothly."

Jim Meyer of ODAC was reported by Reuters as saying said "There's definitely a role for government intervention -- I don't think the markets can take care of it. ... Oil is not running out, but growth in oil is, and we need to talk about it"

Chris Skrebowskie, of the Energy Institute in London said that a major financial crises could occur as soon as 2008.

Simmons in the Reuters article said "Prices are going way higher -- $100 isn't very expensive. ... It could be catastrophic if we do not anticipate when peak comes."

Other noteworthy comments were:

The world's top exporter Saudi Arabia said last week it is ready to increase its output capacity to 15 Million barrels per day, from around 11 million now, and sustain that level for 50 years. Earlier reports said they plan to have a capacity of 12.5 mbd by 2009 and 15 mbd at a later date.

Leggett lists six shocking reasons that define "why we have to act now." He is very concerned that no alternatives reduce greenhouse emissions to an acceptable level. "For environmentalists this will be the final battleground."

Wilson said "the biggest global challenge in energy terms was persuading the United States to reduce its own oil consumption" ... He attacked America's "ever-increasing and ever-more profligate application"

My position on when peak oil will occur has not been firmly established, I am a "early topper", my current guess being between 1 and 5 years. The conference had very little to say about what to do about peak oil. This seems more important, at this time, then trying to figure out who is the best forecaster and procrastinating on the economic implications, which I think are fairly obvious. The conferences most useful purpose, hopefully was to help make people aware of the problem and the urgency to do something about it. My post "Proven Technologies for the Next 20 Years" sums up what I think we have to do. Unconventional oil may play an increasing role, but energy usage in production may limit the ability to sustain production. Biofuels will have to take Brazil's model of becoming totally independent of imported oils through the use of biofuels, ethanol and biodiesel. New breakthroughs in enzyme technology should allow widespread production of ethanol, at more economical prices, within a few years. Huge investments will have to be made in coal liquefaction and Fischer-Tropsch diesel to fill the gap that biofuels cannot meet. Higher fuel efficiency standards, more light vehicle diesels, hybrid cars and plug in hybrid cars will conserve substantial quantities of petroleum fuel. Fuel cells and the hydrogen economy will not play a significant role in the next 20-30 years, if ever.

April 25, 2005

A recent article in Yahoo News discussed China's plans regarding energy usage. Several Chinese leaders were reported as saying that China intended to avoid over-dependence on imported energy by 2020, through increased use of domestic renewable sources. China's oil imports were about 40% of supply in 2004. They hope to reduce their dependence on foreign imports to 35% by 2020. Conservation and non-coal sources such as nuclear power, wind power, solar and other and other renewable sources will be used to meet their demands.

A related story in the China Daily quoted Wang Tao, senior vice-president of the World Petroleum Congress as saying "Energy supplies, especially oil supply, cannot meet the demand of the soaring economy". The story went on to report statistics indicating that China was more dependent on coal than oil. China has vast reserves in coal, second only to the U.S. but only about 1/2 of the U.S. according to EIA. The story indicated that China could enhance its oil exploration efforts. In the next 15 years China will quadruple its economy but its energy consumption will only double.

A March 23 presentation by James Dorian PhD, an international energy economist, gave a westerners assessment of China's energy search. Some excerpts from the presentation are: "The recent growth in oil and energy demand is certainly part of a long-term trend. ... Coal makes up 70% of their energy mix ... Coal mining accidents, transportation bottlenecks and inefficient planning ... have put additional stresses on an already highly strained electric system ... IEA estimate that more than $100 billion worth of investment will be needed by 2025 to revamp the coal industry and meet growing demand ... If coal problems persist or even worsen, Beijing could be forced to dramatically increase emphasis on nuclear and imported oil and gas ... China may surpass the U.S. in emissions of CO2 by 2020 ... they have announced plans to build 24-32 new nuclear plants by 2020 ... China is the second largest consumer of oil behind the U.S. ... 1/3 the oil is devoted to transportation ... Production of oil is likely to stay flat ... Chinese oil companies ... have made several acquisitions in Indonesia, Australia, Central Asia, Iran and Africa during the last few years ... passenger car purchases rose 75% in 2003 and another 20% in 2004 ... in several years transportation will likely account for nearly half of oil consumption ... Ultimately the U.S., China and Japan will be vying for the same Middle Eastern crude oil ... energy consumption ... is rising greater than 1% for every one percent increase in GDP, such an upward trend has potentially dramatic implications for energy consumption in the country. ... no other country in the world will have as great an impact on the world's energy industry than China. ... Given the importance of coal ... and dramatically increased use of passenger cars ... these two sectors need more focus and analysis by us".

Which is a more accurate assessment of China's energy picture, the Chinese or Dorian's? I am sure most of us side with Dorian. China is at least going through the motions of saying it plans to reduce its dependence on oil. Whether they can deliver on their plans is another thing. We accept the fact that we will have increasing oil imports while not doing enough to increase our domestic supplies of liquid fuels in the short term, while we (the US government) hide our heads in the sand saying the oil peak is not in the immediate future. All this just reinforces my opinion that China plays a big role in the future of energy and that The Energy Revolution has begun and it is not going to end soon.

April 24, 2005

The Energy Bulletin referenced a Wired Online article that reported that there is a shortage of silicon for photovoltaic systems. If demand for solar cells grows at the rate that the solar industry forecasts, shortages could cause the solar industry to have difficulty in finding the raw materials to meet their needs this year. The semiconductor manufactures are willing to pay a higher price for silicon than the solar industry. According to the article, silicon manufacturers cannot justify the capital investment for new production facilities at the price solar manufacturers are willing to pay for their products. If federal and state governments would establish subsidies for solar energy, the silicon industry would be more inclined to make large-scale investments, an industry spokesman said. It takes 3 years to get a new silicon facility on line, so tight supplies could continue for several years.

So we have yet another roadblock to expanding our renewable energy supplies. It is a good thing that solar cells are not really a economical source of energy at this time, except where they are highly subsidized or where there is no source of less expensive power. California is considering funding to encourage installation of solar panels on 1 million rooftops by 2018.

April 12, 2005

A recent article in Rigzone pointed out these opposite views on oil supply :

Well known oil man T. Boone Pickens, who has been correct about this market about as well as anyone else, was on CNBC talking about $60 oil, after some short term weakness.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez reported Tuesday (4/5) that "The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is running out of spare production capacity"

Fed Chairman Allen Greenspan was quoted as saying "higher prices eventually should soften demand for energy and boost supply ...the investment needed to bring oil to market had fallen short of what was needed to match unexpected recent gains in demand, especially gains in China." He also said that the world oil refining capacity was "worrisome".

This reminded me that there were many other related items in the news recently, including:

Matthew Simmons president of his international banking firm was reported to say that Saudi Arabia's oil fields are in decline and they will not climb much higher then 10 million gallons per day (mmbd).

In the same article as above Nansen G. Saleri a manager of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco refuted Simmons statement saying that Saudi Arabia can maintain production capacity at the current rate of 10 mmbd for the rest of this decade and if needed they could increase maximum output by 20-50% within a decade.

The New York Times in its Feb 24, 2004 edition said "Saudi Arabia's vast oil fields, pumped for more than half-century, are in decline, raising serious questions about whether kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years."

On Tuesday 12 April 2005 on Aljazeera.net , bank of Montreal's analyst Don Coxe was quoted as saying "The combination of the news that there's no new Saudi Light coming on stream for the next seven years plus the 27% projected decline from existing fields means Hubbert's Peak has arrived in Saudi Arabia"

In the same report Saudi Aramco's chief executive officer Abd Allah Jumaa was reported to say "We have ambitious expansion plans to boost our capacity ... [and] raise our production capacity to 15 million barrels a day... We are confident that we can maintain these production rates for about half a century"

On NewsRatings, a financial analyst web site, quoted Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi as saying " Saudi Arabia can increase its oil supply by 1.5 million barrels per day... [and]Saudi Arabia is planning to expand its oil production capacity to 12.5 million barrels per day in the next four years, beginning 2006"

"It was widely reported that a Goldman Sachs research report said "The oil markets are in a "super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel"

The EIA statistics and projections should be reviewed in light of these reports:

According to the EIA World Oil Demand report the world demand averaged 82.63 million barrels per day (mmbd) during 2004.

In their Annual Energy Outlook 2004 they projected 2004 consumption to be 82.25 mmbd in 2004, 84.26 mmbd in 2005 and 91.65 mmbd in 2010.

In the same report they forecast OPEC to produce 32.06 mmbd in 2004, 33.08 in 2005 and 35.79 by 2010.

In their April 2005 Short-Term Energy Outlook EIA also said "Gasoline prices in 2005 are projected to remain high, at an expected average of $2.28 per gallon for the April to September summer season, 38 cents above last summer. Similar high motor gasoline prices are expected through 2006."

In the same outlook they said "West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices are projected to remain above $50 per barrel for the rest of 2005 and 2006."

In looking this over there are many comments that could be made, but these five come to mind:

As pointed out in Rigzone it is unusual for so much publicity in the popular press. Does this mean that more people are becoming aware that declining oil production will occur at some time?

By saying that prices will remain high for at least two years, is EIA admitting indirectly that peak oil is a fact? I think that they are, but to the best of my knowledge they still think it is a long way off, somewhere in the 2030's. It will be interesting to see what they say in their Annual Energy Outlook 2005, due out next month.

EIA, in its base case, assumes that demand will grow by almost 2.2% between now and 2010. Is this realistic in view of China's and India's seemingly unquenchable demand or are we going into a economic decline that will sharply cut demand?

Where are we going to get even 10 mmbd more oil than we have now by 2010 if OPEC's output increases by only 3 mmbd. Russia, Caspian Sea area, Iraq, Venezuela? It seems very problematic, considering the number of countries whose oil production is in decline.

It seems that the only groups that don't believe that we will soon be in a period of short oil supplies are economists and financial types (except Simmons), the EIA and Saudi Arabia. Most forecasts (many of them not referenced here) expect a peak between 2 and 10 years from now. When is EIA and the administration going to get the message? And why are all the economists so uninformed? They must think that demand can squeeze oil out of a dry rock.

This comment on the WFMY2, Greensboro, NC web site sums it up:

"While gas prices continue to soar, now the U.S. Dept. of Energy says get used to it."

April 05, 2005

I just heard T. Boone Pickens, the legendary founder of Mesa Petroleum the nations largest independent oil producer, on CNBC TV predict that demand for crude would reach 87 million barrels per day in the 3rd quarter of this year and that he did not see how more than 84 million barrels per day could be produced. Prices would go above $60 per barrel. He had earlier predicted that we would see $60 oil before we saw $40.

So where do we go from here? Is this a tangible sign that peak oil is imminent?

March 31, 2005

Toshiba Corp has developed a new lithium-ion battery that has a short recharge time of one minute while maintaining the energy capacity of conventional lithium-ion batteries according to the EE Times online. "We put the priority on applications such as automobiles that require quick recharging time and large cycle time," said a Toshiba spokesman. Toshiba achieved the breakthrough by using nanoparticles of several hundred nanometers coated uniformly on the negative electrode and newly developed electrolytic solution.

Maybe we have something really significant here --just after I said that a breakthrough in batteries would be required before electric cars could be considered. Just think, you you could pull up to an electric charging station and you would be on your way in a few minutes. No information on cost was revealed. Toshiba plans to begin mass production in 2006. I assume they meant on smaller batteries for cell phones and laptops, but they did not elaborate on this.

Meanwhile there is more speculation on the price of oil.

Goldman Sachs was quoted today as saying that oil markets may have entered what it calls a "super spike" period, giving crude the potential to reach a high of $105 (US) a barrel. This was based on the unexpected strength in oil demand and economic growth, especially in the United States and China. In a research note analysts said “We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ‘super spike' period — a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return.”

March 29, 2005

The answer is yes. I found this article in The Energy Bulletin and found it stated a view that closely agreed with my views and I though I would share it with you.

The Dawn of a New Oil Era?

By Robert J. Samuelson

Newsweek

April 4 issue - The interesting question about the advent of $50-a-barrel oil is whether it signals a new era in the economic and politics of energy. To sharpen the question: have we entered a period when, owing to consistantly strong demand and chronically scarce supplies, prices have moved permantly higher? We don't know, but the answer could be "yes" for at least one reason: China.