But one solution to a labour shortage could be "neglected
workforces," such as ex-offenders and the elderly.

According to George Koureas, who specialises in immigration law
at Fragomen law firm, companies in the UK are "paralysed by
uncertainty" about what post-Brexit agreements may look like,
and are not yet planning for the changes, even if they have high
numbers of foreign workers.

Businesses should start thinking now about how their workforces
will be affected, since "in the blink of an eye we'll be another
four months down the line." One thing employers could do, he
says, is look at more "neglected workforces," like ex-offenders,
the elderly and unqualified school-leavers.

Lower skilled and lower paid jobs in particular are already
starting to feel an immigration pinch, and the shortage of NHS
nurses has been well
reported. In the immediate months after Brexit, says Koureas,
sectors like logistics and hospitality will be the ones that
"really suffer," and may struggle to source enough low-paid
workers during peak times especially.

Although employers often squirm at the thought of hiring
ex-offenders, they cannot legally turn someone down for a job if
a conviction is spent — which happens after a set rehabilitation
period — unless the job requires a criminal record check, and the
check shows them to be unsuitable.

According to charity Unlock,
over 10 million people in the UK have a criminal record. In
2016, 1.24 million offenders were
sentenced across all courts, but more than half (54%) of
these sentences were for motoring offences, and 74% of all
sentences were fines.

Despite this, a
YouGov poll of 1,849 companies found that half would not
consider employing offenders or ex-offenders, and a further 12%
were unsure. Only 7% said they currently employed either,
although only 11% said they had received such applications and a
further third were unsure.

The most common worry about employing offenders or ex-offenders
was that they may be unreliable, followed by the concern that
such a hiring policy could damage the public image of the
business.

In a smaller survey of 1,291 employers, 58% said they thought
very few comparable companies employed people from disadvantaged
groups (including ex-offenders).

Nevertheless, a small number of companies, such as Virgin Trains,
are actively running programmes to hire ex-offenders, and the
government last year removed the criminal record disclosure
section on initial job applications for most civil service jobs.

The cost of not hiring - money and manpower

In a
letter to the Financial Times in 2011, Founder of the Virgin
Group Sir Richard Branson said prisons held "a large number of
potential superstars who get ignored by employers because of
their criminal record."

In 2012, 28% of all Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimants, and
20% of all Income Support claimants were individuals with
cautions or convictions (the total spend for the year across both
benefits types was
£11.83 billion). This group made up 22% of all out-of-work
benefits claimants, although only 4% had been in prison.

In 2016, a
Work and Pensions Committee report found that only about
26.5% of prisoners enter employment upon release, and that the
average prison leaver spent "much longer on benefits than the
average claimant of JSA." However, of the nearly
68,000 individuals who entered prison in 2016, 71% had been
convicted of a non-violent crime.

Here's the chart of claimants:

A
higher proportion of people with a caution or conviction claim
out-of-work benefits than of those without, although this is
likely due to a range of factors beyond just the criminal record
itself.DWP,
MoJ, Oxford University

"Currently, there is no clear strategy for how different
agencies, in different prisons, should work together to achieve
the common goal of getting ex offenders into work," the report
said. "Employers need to be encouraged to change their
recruitment practices, and be given the support to do so."

It suggested the government pilot a scheme to reduce national
insurance contributions for employers actively employing
ex-offenders, and that prisons be required to provide education
and training courses.

The elderly could also help plug a labour shortage: earlier this
year,
PwC released a report saying more should be done to encourage
people over the age of 55 to stay in work. It said "harnessing
the economic power of older workers," and women in particular,
could boost the UK's economy by £80 billion.

According to Koureas, the current conversation about workers and
employment is missing more open communication channels between
businesses, policy-makers and educators. These channels
are needed in order to create a clear roadmap for the
future, and for working out where new sources of workers are and
how best to train them.

Employers and educators, he says, need to be supported and
encouraged by policy-makers, while a two-way dialogue should
inform policy. "That's the missing gap," he says.