tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post7983192636662427368..comments2017-08-16T20:24:47.905-07:00Comments on Raising Matt Cain: It's all about the pitchingM.C. O'Connorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-59241197897275292122012-07-13T11:10:16.180-07:002012-07-13T11:10:16.180-07:00The fresh bullpen arm is Penny. Doesn&#39;t mean ...The fresh bullpen arm is Penny. Doesn&#39;t mean that they should stop there.Zonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-68057994734202636042012-07-13T10:44:31.951-07:002012-07-13T10:44:31.951-07:00ERA and ERA+/- are not the best stats for reliever...ERA and ERA+/- are not the best stats for relievers. They can usually tell you who is doing well, but one or two bad performances can really skew the numbers and make a good pitcher look worse. Relievers just don&#39;t rack up enough innings. It&#39;s like evaluating a hitter&#39;s season after 100 PA. That being said, I&#39;ve no doubt, other than Tim, the relief pitching is the main culprit. Besides, we all know that ERA is one of those stats that&#39;s really good at finding the outliers (who is really good and who is really bad), and not so good for evaluating guys (starters) in the middle of the pack. It is too dependent on environment, relief, random variation, etc. It&#39;s like batting average in that regard. I mean is a 3.33 pitcher actually better than a 3.74 pitcher? Not necessarily, you&#39;d have to look at context. But a 2.33 pitcher is clearly doing better than a 4.74 pitcher.<br /><br />I think the way to evaluate the &#39;pen would be to look at things like BB/9 and K/9. And things like are ground ball specialists like Affeldt getting ground balls? Are guys like Lopez getting lefties out? Intuitively, I&#39;d say &quot;no&quot; but I have not done the looking. And there&#39;s no doubt the Giants &quot;garbage time&quot; guys have been terrible. A game they would have lost 6-1 winds up 10-1 because it is Loux instead of Mota, for example. (I&#39;ve been hard on Kontos, but I think they may have a good arm there and he may become a key guy down the stretch.)<br /><br />I&#39;m not sure Wilson would have been better than Casilla so far, but having Wilson would mean that Casilla could get some big outs in setup and pre-setup situations, giving the team, in effect, two Romos. Kind of like when they had that great Ramirez/Casilla combo in 2010. So losing the closer has indeed hurt the club.<br /><br />I expect a fresh bullpen arm will be acquired before the deadline. Huston Street is available, but the Padres will want a lot, and the Giants would probably regret giving up a key prospect, so I doubt they&#39;ll even consider it. But boy he&#39;d really make the &#39;pen dynamite and take a lot of pressure off the other guys.M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-35554421063542829202012-07-13T09:57:18.912-07:002012-07-13T09:57:18.912-07:00My question is whether this same sort of analysis ...My question is whether this same sort of analysis can be applied to starting vs. relief pitching, or further broken down by mid-relief vs. closers? Relievers can be easily tinkered with, but starters, not so much. My gut says it is relief, maybe skewed by Castilla&#39;s two blown saves just recently. He has 21 saves, half of a good closer&#39;s year. We should have three starting pitchers with 10 wins by now. A win doesn&#39;t always indicate a pitcher&#39;s strength, but then, era (+ or -) doesn&#39;t always indicate a team&#39;s success. But three 10 w guys by the AS break does indicate that we have had a lead while our starters were in there a significant part of the time (and, I&#39;m betting, a lot more than the last couple years). This just reinforces my gut feeling that our trend away from dominance this year is relief, not starting. Of course, I&#39;m too lazy to pull out the stats, to determine this, but maybe someone else isn&#39;t.Zonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-18869614696064747962012-07-13T07:15:27.781-07:002012-07-13T07:15:27.781-07:00Yeah, the shockingly porous defense has not helped...Yeah, the shockingly porous defense has not helped the pitchers. I hope that improves in the second half.M.C. O'Connorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12258035192484655635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7941261488380355005.post-81674959776322323082012-07-11T17:56:28.945-07:002012-07-11T17:56:28.945-07:00The 2012 giants sure can give up the unearned runs...The 2012 giants sure can give up the unearned runs this year.nomisnalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08297640472949764321noreply@blogger.com