Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Market Watch

This line hasn't changed all that much from the advanced line a week ago. Westgate had the Patriots favored by -9.5, and it reopened at -9 after Week 6. It has since moved to -9.5 (-10 at square shops), and it will likely stay in this range until kickoff. Is this line inflated? I'd like to see a case made for the Jets because bad teams haven't done well at all on the short week this season. 66% of the bets are on New England so far.

Bottom Line

When it comes to the Jets, it's pretty much status quo. Only Ryan Tannehill has a worse rating Geno Smith on deep balls this year. They are 29th in passing efficiency, 21st in rushing efficiency, 30th in red zone scoring, and 24th on third down conversions. Their offensive line isn't terrible, but it's not good either. The Patriots defense might not be as good as I thought it would be this year, but even an average effort should be enough against this anemic offense.

Whether or not New England cover this spread will ultimately be up to their offense. They've been mostly average this year, but there are signs that they are finding a groove. It's an interesting matchup because the Jets are no good at all against the pass and they can't keep anybody out of the end zone once opponents get inside the 20. What they do have going for them is a stout run defense and a front seven that leads the league in adjusted sack rate. Can the Patriots OL hold up against that?

This one does have the obvious potential for a blowout, but I'm taking a pass on this game because I still don't trust this New England offense to cover a double digit spread. They would be the only side I consider though. The Jets are simply unplayable at this point.