Coming Soon
It's been a while, but as they say, better late than never. We finally made some time to redesign our blog and soon we will have our own independent website. The blog helped us reach a huge audience and generate a lot of interest in this area. As a result, the format and (utility) of the blog seems overwhelmed, hence the transittion to the dedicated site. The URL for the new site and content will be disclosed soon. Till then, enjoy the blog and continue to contribute to our posts.

That trend got a sharp boost recently, when Press Trust of India (PTI) reported a surprise pullout by the CEO of Dassault on the eve of the RFP. The Mirage 2000v5 will no longer be fielded for the India deal, despite the fact that India already flies 40 Mirage 2000Ds and its senior officials have touted standardization as a plus factor. So, what's going on?

In a word, lots. The participants are changing, India's view of its own needs is changing, and the size and nature of the order may be changing as well....

Dassault's Move: The Rafale Option

According to India Press Trust, Chacks Edelstenne, CEO of Dassault Aviation, visited the Minister of State for Defence Rao Inderjit Singh and The Deputy Chief of the Air Staff Air Marshal AK Nangalia on February 21, 2006. He informed his audience that "we are on the verge of closing the Mirage fighter assembly line and want to offer India a quantum jump in technology... Though India has not not floated the Request for Proposals (RFP), we have conveyed to India to supply 40 Rafale multi-mission fighters in single source deal."

In a related move, French engine maker Snecma, which is also bidding for DRDO's joint collaboration project on the Tejas LCA's Kaveri engines, has offered to mount Kaveri engines in Rafale fighters.

Media reports note that India's decision-making speed may have had something to do with the switch, as Dassault sources claimed that it would take at least three-four years for a contract to actually be signed with India. Word is that the French government thought that it would be too expensive to keep the Mirage factories running during that time without additional export prospects.

Dassault has reportedly assured India that its extensive Mirage repair and servicing facilities set up by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited at Bangalore would require only 'limited modification' to accommodate the Rafale, given its commonalities with the Mirage 2000s.

Dassault may be completely up-front about the reasons behind this choice. It may also have decided that the introduction of the F/A-18 Super Hornet, MiG-35, and changing requirements in the RFP make the Mirage a loser anyway, while boosting the Rafale's chance of securing an export order that would be critical to its long-term future.

Whichever way one leans, the withdrawal of the Mirage 2000 from the competition appears to be official and final.

India's MRCA (Multi-Role Combat Aircraft): Changes

The original intent of India's fighter purchase was to replace hundreds of non-upgraded MiG-21s that India will be forced to retire, with a complementary force of 126 aircraft to go with India's high end Su-30MKIs, and its low-end Tejas LCA lightweight fighter. India is a large country, with coverage needs over a wide area (see map of airbases in "Order of Battle") and on several fronts.

Lightweight multi-role fighters that could make up for declining aircraft numbers with broader and better capabilities would appear to fit that need, and their initial shortlist followed that template.

The Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 were already in service with India in this role, and the JAS-39 offered a fourth generation aircraft whose costs and profile place it firmly in the lightweight fighter category. These aircraft served as a hedge against the potential failure of the Tejas lightweight Combat Aircraft project, and also offered a more immediate solution to plussing up numbers as existing MiG-21s and MiG-23s/MiG-27s were forced into retirement.

Since those early days, sharply improved relations with the USA have introduced a pair of American planes into the competition, and India's view of its own needs is changing. Official sources told Jane's that RFPs are now to be issued to France's Dassault (Mirage 2000-5 and Rafale), BAE/Saab (JAS-39 Gripen), EADS/BAE (Eurofighter Typhoon), The American firms Lockheed (F-16 Block 70) and Boeing (F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet), and Russia's Rosonboronexport (MiG-29OVT with thrust vectoring, aka. MiG-35).

India's requirements are also changing. Jane's Defence Weekly notes that India wishes to 'significantly' augment their strike capability and range to deal with out-of-area contingencies (a trend noted by DID recently). This has delayed the MRCA RFP, originally expected in December 2005. Another contributor to these delays has been the need to refine and clarify the new industrial offset rules (perhaps US lobbying has made a difference).

Of even greater importance is Jane's belief that India will increase its initial requirement from 126 multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) to around 180-190 aircraft, with the additional number being considered for acquisition by the Indian Navy. Reports to other outlets vary, however, and some reports have India standing firm at 126 aircraft.

The naval requirement will be extremely significant because the current roster of competitors contains only two aircraft that qualify for future STOBAR1 carriers like the INS Vikramaditya (ex- Admiral Gorshkov) and the Vikrant Class (aka. Air Defence Ship), which will reportedly weigh in at 37,500 tonnes with a design that is heavily influenced by Italy's Cavour Class.

Those aircraft are the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Dassault's Rafale-M variant. Additionally, the MiG-35 is related to the MiG-29K naval variant slated for operation on INS Vikramaditya. If Russia wishes to invest in the idea, a carrier-capable MiG-35K may also be doable - if the extra weight of the new fuel tanks doesn't create a problem given the hard impacts of carrier landings.

Recall India's need to replace large numbers of aircraft. Given that both the Rafale and Super Hornet carry flyaway costs in the $55-70 million per plane range, and total program costs significantly higher than that, a naval requirement within the competition almost certainly means a split of the order between these high-expense platforms and a cheaper lightweight fighter contender. For instance, there's the possibility of a smaller F/A-18 E/F order and a large MiG-35 order.

India's defense procurement process is definitely a game for the patient, but an RFP that clarifies India's exact requirements and timelines is expected within the next few few months.

The global defense industry is constantly shaping how borders are protected, wars are fought, terrorists are tracked and caught, and global security maintained. We aim to track news, policy, military exercises and strategic affairs between the world's largest democracies - India and the United States.

Given the vast interest and passion we have in this field, we decided to launch this blog to give visitors the ability to track these developments, exchange ideas and link to other sources of Information. Our primary sources and links can be found on the main page. Some of the pieces published herein our ours, otherwise it is reproduced from other sources (news, think-tanks or publications) to provide our readers the ability to interact and respond. The link to the original source can always be found under the article. Articles and op-ed pieces written by us include thoughts and opinions that are ours, not those of any government or political party. Last but not least, this blog is not-for-profit, nor is it financially supported by any corporation, entity or organization. It is purely to be used for informational purposes and not commercial and/or profit motives.

Thank you, Nik Khanna & Jango Unwalla

Search

About The Blog
This blog focuses on current issues concerning defense and national security for the world's largest democracy - India. It is updated regularly providing readers with in-depth information on technology transfer, acquisitions, counter-terrorism, security and military collaboration and strategic dialogue between India and the United States. The site includes links to top defense policy & research institutes, think-tanks, military sites and research organizations.

Cooperative Cope Thunder
Nikhil and Jehangir wrote an exhaustive article about the Cooperative Cope Thunder joint event. Their article was publihed in Vayu magazine. Click on the link below to read the in-depth article with amazing pictures courtesy of mark Farmer at topcover.com

If you're looking for a way to serve your community and country while maintaining your full-time civilian career, the National Guard is for you. Click below to learn more about the proud history of the Army National Guard.