The race to be Denver’s next mayor is on. Ten days ago, ballots arrived in mailboxes, and a Post/Channel 9 poll revealed that three candidates are nearly tied: Chris Romer and James Mejia at 22 percent and Michael Hancock at 18.

A month earlier, an RBI Strategies poll showed Romer at 22 percent, Mejia at 10 and Hancock at 9. The biggest change? During the past month, the undecided vote went from 40 percent to 11.

Romer is stuck at 22 percent and some predict he may not make the runoff. It’s too soon to tell, and will depend on turnout. If turnout is low, he makes it because his base — older, regular voters and Republicans — always vote.

In an election where no candidate has captured the public’s imagination, name identification and “better the devil we know than the angel we don’t” may prevail. Romer’s constant TV presence, an engaging and extroverted personality, daddy’s coattails and a Denver Post endorsement may get him to the June runoff. On the other hand, his non-appearance at many forums, his background as a Wall Street investment banker and the play-it-safe arrogance of his campaign may be his undoing.

If he comes in first or a close second, Romer needs to do something different. He will have to persuade a majority of voters that he’s trustworthy and likeable. However, if both Mejia and Hancock mount strong get-out-the-vote efforts, Romer could be in trouble.

Aside from the lack of momentum in the Romer campaign, is momentum with Hancock or Mejia? It depends.

Hancock’s ads, describing who he is and what he’s made of, are inspiring. On the other hand, he has to do something to consolidate his base and attract undecided voters. He needs more than his council district — Northeast and Far Northeast Denver — to get elected. His surge from 9 to 18 percent in the polls, along with Carol Boigon’s recent endorsement, may reassure Southeast Denver voters that he is a viable choice.

Sometimes a campaign is better than the candidate — Norm Early’s 1991 race or Ari Zavaras’s 2003 run come to mind. Other times the candidate is better than the campaign. Likeable, energetic and a natural leader, Hancock is much better than the campaign team he’s assembled. If he makes it to the June runoff, he will have to put some meat on the bones of a great personal narrative and a snappy campaign slogan.

Mejia has been in the race the longest, announcing months before John Hickenlooper declared his bid to be governor. Though he has the endorsement of former Mayor Federico Peña, surprisingly few of those he worked with in either the Hickenlooper or Wellington Webb administrations have endorsed him. And it’s not clear if he has inspired a broad and passionate Hispanic base.

Nonetheless, Mejia has produced the most substantive position papers of the three. His well-thought-out plans for the revival of the Platte River and adjacent neighborhoods links economic development to land-use policies. He knows the nuts and bolts of city government, having spent much of his career as an administrator.

On the other hand, he lacks Romer’s boldness or Hancock’s charm. And Mejia is the only front-runner who hasn’t embraced full-bore school reform, earning the endorsement of the Denver Classroom Teachers Association.

If Mejia prevails in May, he must persuade voters that he’s more than a competent manager.

The election is barely 10 days away. The field has narrowed, but the horse race has just begun.

Freelance columnist Susan Barnes-Gelt (sbg13@comcast.net) served on the Denver City Council and worked for Mayor Federico Peña. She is a consultant to a local development company.