000
FXUS63 KMQT 012349
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
649 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. WITHIN TROF...NEXT SHORTWAVE OF
INTEREST IS NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN. CLOSER TO HOME...SOME
-SHSH/FLURRIES HAVE SPREAD FROM WRN UPPER MI INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL
UPPER MI TODAY IN VCNTY OF SFCTROF WHICH IS NOW ROUGHLY BISECTING
UPPER MI.
TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE NOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AREA OF DEEP LAYER FORCING PER QVECTORS
SHIFTS ACROSS UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH ASSOCIATED
BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE...850MB TEMPS AROUND -18C...AND A
ROUGHLY 3KFT DGZ LAYER BTWN ROUGHLY 2K AND 5KFT...WOULD NORMALLY BE
CONCERNED ABOUT SEEING SEVERAL HRS OF HEALTHY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW IF
THE LAKE WASN`T MOSTLY ICE COVERED. THAT SAID...THE BRISK SW TO W
WINDS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE OPENED UP SOME NOTABLE GAPS IN
THE ICE...SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED MORE
PERSISTENT LES AND SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION. FROM TODAYS MODIS AND VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY...A COUPLE OF IMPORTANT GAPS IN THE ICE ARE NOTED
FROM AROUND THE HURON ISLANDS DOWN PAST GRANITE ISLAND AND OVER TO N
OF MUNISING...AND ALSO IN THE AREA E OF THE APOSTLE ISLANDS WHICH
HAS CERTAINLY HAD A TENDENCY TO OPEN UP OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS WHEN
WINDS ARE SW. WILL THUS HIT HIGHEST POPS AND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW
DOWNWIND OF THESE OPEN WATER AREAS THIS EVENING (JUST N OF IRONWOOD
TO THE PORCUPINE MTNS AND ALSO ALGER COUNTY). STRONG NEGATIVE
DYNAMICS TAKE OVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT...SO LES INTENSITY WILL
DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AWAY FROM THESE AREAS...
WNW/NW FLOW LES SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN SCT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER
1 INCH. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME FLURRIES IN MOST AREAS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES. TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W TOWARD THE WI BORDER SHOULD FALL
DOWN TOWARD ZERO WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10F.
ANY LINGERING LES TO THE E OF MARQUETTE WILL END BY MON AFTN UNDER
WAA/BACKING WINDS WITH PASSAGE OF SFC HIGH PRESRIDGE (BY MID AFTN
850MB TEMPS ARE FCST TO BE AROUND -12C). WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT EVEN WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BECOME SUNNY DURING THE DAY WITH DRY AIR
MASS AND DEPARTURE OF 850MB THERMALTROF. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 20 TO THE UPPER 20S...COOLEST OVER THE FAR E...CLOSER TO
DEPARTING THERMALTROF.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
...WIDESPREAD SNOW TUESDAY MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A HEADLINE...
PRIMARY HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK IS LIMITED TO
WIDESPREAD SNOW EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE REPLACED BY A
COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN WAKE OF THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. MAY
BE SOME LAKE EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT CHANCES WILL
BE HELD DOWN AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS MOSTLY ICE COVERED. TEMPS
REBOUND AGAIN BY NEXT FRIDAY AND COULD STAY AT SIMILAR LEVELS INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS EAST ON MONDAY EVENING WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF A TWO-PIECED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING
TOWARD REGION. NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW SLIDES FM
NORTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL PUSH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AS THE SFC LOW ARRIVES ALONG THE NEB/IOWA BORDER. MOISTUREADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH MAXIMIZES OVERNIGHT BTWN H85 AND
H5. LIFT IS PRETTY STRONG WITHIN THE MOIST ADVECTION...SO SHOULD SEE
LGT SNOW BEGIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TOWARD WI BORDER WITH
LOWEST 100MB GRADUALLY SATURATING. HINTS ARE THERE THAT THE INITIAL
SNOW COULD BE DRIVEN BY FGEN...BUT WHERE MAX RIBBON OF HEAVIER SNOW
SETS UP IS NOT CERTAIN. 12Z NAM SHOWS IT MORE OVER WESTERN CWA...BUT
THIS IS AT ODDS WITH NAM DOMINATED SREF OUTPUT AND SEEMS TOO FAR
NORTH AS IT IS ALSO FARTHER NORTH WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW ON
INTO TUESDAY. WILL KEEP WITH IDEA OF HEAVIER QPF/SNOW ON TUESDAY ON
EDGE OF GREATER H85-H7MOISTURE TRANSPORT WHICH MAINLY IS MAXIMIZED
JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF UPR MICHIGAN OUT AHEAD OF
SOUTHERN STREAM SFC LOW CROSSING LOWER MICHIGAN. H7 MIXING RATIOS
GFS/ECMWF STAY BLO 3G/KG THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. MIXING RATIOS INTO THE
SYSTEM AND BLEND OF QPFFMGFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SLR/S CENTERED ON
15:1...SUGGEST ADVY LEVEL SNOWFALL SCNTRL CWA INTO THE EASTERN CWA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN HWO/EHWO GRAPHICS.
PHASING BTWN THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES
NEVEN REALLY TAKES OFF SO THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STAY PROGRESSIVE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN CORE OF UPPER JET ENERGY STAYS OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. CHANCE POPS LINGER EARLY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST...BUT OTHERWISE POPS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA.
INITIALLY LAKE EFFECT IN WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ON TUESDAY
EVENING PROBABLY STAYS ON THE LIGHT SIDE DUE TO MARGINALLY COLD AIR
/H85 TEMPS WARMER THAN -15C/ AND MAINLY ICE COVERED LAKE SUPERIOR.
GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW INCREASE OF MOISTURE H8-H7 LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPS FALLING BLO
-20C OVER LK SUPERIOR RESULTS IN INVERSIONS RISING UP TO A MAX OF
8KFT WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR. DESPITE THE HIGH
ICE COVERAGE...SCTPOPS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER LAND AREAS WITH SOME HELP FM DAYTIME HEATING
AS THE HYBRID LAKE EFFECT SEASON IS UNDERWAY DUE TO HIGHER SUN
ANGLE. WITH NW WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG THE LK SUPERIOR
SHORELINES...PROBABLY WILL HAVE BLSN/POOR VSBY IN THE SNOW BELTS
NEAR LK SUPERIOR EAST OF MQT. EVEN MINUS BLSN...LES WILL BE GOOD AT
REDUCING VSBY AS THE SNOWFLAKES WILL BE BECOMING SMALLER. H85 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO FALL BLO -25C BY LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SO TEMPS
WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND WINDS BACKING W-WSW BY THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DIMINISH ANY SNOW SHOWERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE
OFFSHORE. TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
TANK WELL UNDER 10 BLO ZERO. MAY SEE MARGINALLY LOW WIND CHILLS ON
THURSDAY MORNING...BUT FARTHER INLAND WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLDEST
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE NEARLY CALM. STILL COLD ON THURSDAY AS CORE
OF COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY HEADS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.
WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD UPPER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. WARMING FIRST OCCURS ALOFT THEN MAKES ITS WAY TO SFC BY
FRIDAY AFTN. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY SWEEPS
ACROSS LEAVING SCT-BKN LOW CLOUDS LATER ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND LIFT
DOES NOT SYNC UP...SO NOT EXPECING MUCH IN WAY OF LGT SNOW. BETTER
LINKING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR
AND NORTHERN ONTARIO. DECENT AGREEMENT IN THIS IDEA FMGFS AND
ECMWF. COLD AIR NOT AS EMPHATIC FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOWING H85 TEMPS MAINLY WARMER THAN -12C. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AND DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL JUST
RUN WITH CONSENSUS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. RESULT IS DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AND ONLY SMALL CHANCES OF LGT SNOW MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH AND EAST CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD GIVE
A BOOST TO LAKE EFFECT -SHSN DESPITE A MOSTLY ICE COVERED LAKE
SUPERIOR. RECENT SW WINDS MAY HAVE OPENED UP AN AREA OF WATER E OF
THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. IF SO...SOME PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN -SHSH
MAY OCCUR AT KIWD THIS EVENING UNDER LOW-LEVEL WNW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KIWD/KCMX TONIGHT
WITH OCNL -SHSN. BACKING WINDS MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO KIWD ON MON MORNING AND TO KCMX MON AFTERNOON. AT
KSAW...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THRU MON UNDER
DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015
SEEMS THAT POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LK SUPERIOR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK TO BE 15 TO 25 KTS.
LATEST OFFICIAL ICE CONCENTRATION ON LK SUPERIOR IS AROUND 95 PCT.
EVEN WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES THIS WEEK...EXPECT THE HIGHER ICE
COVERAGE TO PERSIST AS TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA