quote:Predictious is a predictions market conducted entirely in Bitcoin, the virtual currency that approximates cash on the internet. Predictious is based in Ireland, the former home base of Intrade, where this kind of betting is legal. The fact that trades are done in Bitcoin means anyone around the world can participate.

Predictious is hoping that the fact that trades are done in Bitcoin, and not in a nationally regulated currency, could help it evade running afoul of gambling and securities trading regulations. However, the site says it is prepared to pull out of the US if threatened by regulators.

There are other Bitcoin prediction sites such as Bets of Bitcoin and BitBet, but those sites mostly take bets on what will happen to the price of Bitcoin, which has historically been very volatile, and other events in the niche Bitcoin economy. Those sites are also structured as pari-mutuel bets, where all bets are placed in a pool and no one wins until the event concludes.

By contrast, Predictious is structured like a futures exchange. Bets have guaranteed odds, and can be resold before the outcome of an event. The goal is to replace Intrade, founder Flavien Charlon told The Verge. "We know that a number of traders on Intrade have been looking for an alternative since it was shut down," he said in an email.

Predictious is launching with a number of open wages. You can bet on the sex of the royal baby, the gender of the 2016 US President, the nationality of the Tour de France winner, and which characters will die next on Breaking Bad.

re: You can now bet on the sex of William and Kate’s baby in BitcoinPosted by ZereauxSum on 7/12/13 at 6:36 am to rickgrimes

quote:Predictious is hoping that the fact that trades are done in Bitcoin, and not in a nationally regulated currency, could help it evade running afoul of gambling and securities trading regulations. However, the site says it is prepared to pull out of the US if threatened

re: You can now bet on the sex of William and Kate’s baby in BitcoinPosted by Poodlebrain on 7/12/13 at 8:40 am to rickgrimes

quote:Predictious is a predictions market conducted entirely in Bitcoin, the virtual currency that approximates cash on the internet.

I just love the bit about approximates cash. That means Predictious doesn't do exchanges. You have to convert your Bitcoins elsewhere.

Suppose you place a bet on the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. You transfer your Bitcoin(s) to Predictious who holds it until the election. The Bitcoin(s) are worth approximately $100 each right now. How much will they be worth if and when you win your bet? In fact, you are making two separate bets. The first is on the outcome of the presidential election, and the second is on the value of Bitcoins. You could win the first bet, and still come out a loser if Bitcoins decline in value sufficiently.

re: You can now bet on the sex of William and Kate’s baby in BitcoinPosted by Cold Cous Cous on 7/12/13 at 9:22 am to rickgrimes

How long are people going to just be able to slap the word "bitcoin" on anything and get free marketing? Seems like every time any company decides to accept bitcoin for anything, no matter how pointless, some jackleg website throws up a story saying "omg bitcoins can now be used for ____."