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Europe is Split in a Number of Different Ways

Europe is once more divided, this time between the old and new, dove and hawk,
anti- and pro-American. Headlines are full of it. Commentary pages are awash
in Euro-introspection.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's dismissal of France and Germany,
by reason of their foot dragging over Iraq, as the "old Europe" started this
debate. British Prime Minister Tony Blair's delivery of a declaration of allegiance
to President Bush, signed by him and seven other European heads of government,
has confirmed it.

Europe is actually divided in any number of ways, of which the issue of war
or peace in Iraq is likely to be among the more ephemeral. Europe is separated
into rich and poor states, small and large, and integrationist and nationalist.
These are the more or less permanent differences out of which a more united
Europe is being constructed.

Europe is also divided between European Union members and aspirant member states,
between established and new democracies, between West and East. These are the
divides that the next stage of European integration is designed to overcome.

Germany and France have succeeded in leading this process of European construction
during the past five decades because these two nations have been the most powerful
proponents of divergent strains of European opinion, and thus in a position
to represent others in forging compromises for the continent as a whole.

France and Germany are particularly odd bedfellows on issues of war and peace.
France is among the least pacific nations in Europe, while Germany, at least
post-World War II Germany, is the most. On the other hand, France is the least
instinctively pro-American nation in Europe, while Germany is normally among
the most. Only Britain is as bellicose as France and as pro-American as Germany.

Given these very divergent proclivities, this Franco-German marriage of convenience
on Iraq may not last long. Rather it is likely to be followed, as has often
been the case in the past, by a last-minute French rally to America's side,
a form of "just in time" diplomacy of which the French have achieved mastery.

The current shape of the trans-Atlantic maneuvering over Iraq is familiar in
a number of respects. It has the United States asserting its leadership, hustling
recalcitrant allies into line; Britain standing shoulder to shoulder with its
American big brother; France maneuvering for the position of maximum leverage,
awaiting the moment of maximum advantage; and Germany adopting a ridged position
of principal.

Washington can hope to see its leadership reaffirmed, albeit at the cost of
some irritation on the part of its followership; London to reinforce its ties
to Washington; Paris to secure maximum short-term advantage, at the cost of
some resentment in Washington for having kept it waiting so long. Only Germany,
in sustaining a position of principal, enjoys no prospect of long- or short-term
advantage. Assuming that Saddam Hussein is ultimately disarmed and Iraq liberated,
none of these relationships will be too greatly strained, even that between
Germany the United States. Magnanimity in victory is easy. German troops and
money will be badly needed for Iraq's post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction.
If, on the other hand, Iraq descends into chaos, then trans-Atlantic and intra-European
recriminations will be bitter indeed. The fact that German reservations will
have been proved justified can only increase the depth of such recriminations.

Perversely, therefore, no one may have a greater stake in the success of Bush's
policies on Iraq than Gerhard Schroeder, for only if Washington succeeds can
Berlin avoid being blamed by its most important allies, however unfairly, for
the failure.

James Dobbins heads RAND's International Security
and Defense Policy Center. He served in the State Department as assistant
secretary of state for European affairs and as ambassador to the European Community.

This commentary originally appeared in Albany Times Union on February 18, 2003.

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