UFC Fight Night 38 Preview

Gustafsson vs. Manuwa

Alexander
Gustafsson in September came oh so close to wresting the light
heavyweight crown from Jon Jones, who
had looked nearly invincible up to that point. Heading into their
UFC 165 showdown, Gustafsson’s main selling point was his height
and reach, but he was not well-known to casual fans. After 25
minutes with “Bones” in Toronto, a potential rematch with the
champion could be one of the most anticipated bouts of 2014.

Before any of that can happen, Gustafsson must dispatch a hungry,
talented and relatively unknown challenger in the UFC
Fight Night 38 headliner on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London.
While Jimi Manuwa
is far from a household name, he has an impressive track record for
finishing and should be able to draw inspiration from fighting in
front of a supportive English fan base. Gustafsson should know just
how dangerous a talented underdog can be, as he just finished
playing a similar role.

Here is a closer look at UFC Fight Night 38, with analysis and
picks.

Light Heavyweights

The Matchup: By taking light heavyweight champion
Jones to the limit, Gustafsson made the proverbial leap at UFC 165.
No longer is the Swede simply a potential title contender. Instead,
he is the clear-cut No. 2 light heavyweight in the world. In fact,
more than a few observers believed Gustafsson deserved the decision
against Jones in September.

Gustafsson’s movement and versatile offense never looked better, as
he landed punching combinations to the head and body, low kicks and
even became the first person in
Ultimate Fighting Championship competition to take down
Jones.

Perhaps even more significant, he defended 10 of Jones’ 11 takedown
attempts; wrestling was where the champion was initially believed
to have his greatest advantage.

What UFC 165 showed was that while Gustafsson had for the most part
looked impressive in his first eight Octagon appearances, he was
nowhere near his ceiling. To earn the highly anticipated rematch
with Jones, who has business of his own to tend to against Glover
Teixeira in April, Gustafsson will have to defeat Manuwa, a
largely unproven but talented opponent who will be fighting on his
home soil.

Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira was the original UFC Fight Night 38 opponent
for Gustafsson, and while the Brazilian is a bigger name, Manuwa
might be the more interesting foe. Nogueira has battled injuries
throughout his UFC tenure and has rarely resembled the fighter he
was in his Pride Fighting Championships heyday. Manuwa, meanwhile,
appears to have plenty of untapped potential. The 34-year-old
Englishman is a quick study, having started MMA at 28. He is also a
fearsome specimen capable of authoring a spectacular finish. His
three-bout UFC tenure has been bizarre, with each of his opponents
falling victim to injury during the fight. However, it should not
be overlooked that Manuwa was winning each of those contests before
they were halted.

“Poster Boy” will be five inches shorter than Gustafsson, but he
has a decent reach for his height. While FightMetric shows that
Manuwa has a three-inch reach advantage on the Swede, Gustafsson
has previously stated that his official reach is 82.5 inches, not
76.5 inches. Either way, he proved against Jones that he can handle
himself against a rangier opponent.

Manuwa does not possess the toolbox of Jones, but the power in his
hands is arguably greater. He has a solid jab, but the lead left
hook is his go-to punch. In addition, Manuwa utilizes overhands,
uppercuts, knees and kicks to the legs, head and body. His boxing
is his strength, but he throws everything with serious intent.

Gustafsson is not likely to stand in front of his powerful
adversary for any significant period of time. He has a good grasp
of movement and angles, and he will circle out of danger as Manuwa
pursues. The Brit will have to pace himself, as he has yet to see a
third round as a professional, and this fight could potentially go
25 minutes. If Manuwa fatigues, Gustafsson might look to implement
takedowns more frequently. He can also counter Manuwa’s kicks,
especially those to the legs, because the ex-British Association of
Mixed Martial Arts competitor often throws them without a
setup.

The Pick: Manuwa will be at his most dangerous in
the first 10 minutes. However, Gustafsson has already shown he is a
skilled tactician in the cage. As time goes forward, Swede will
continue to land with more volume, eventually winning via TKO or
setting up a submission in round three or four.