SKYLog

Going to try something new here. I posted these slides on the Facebook page, but I want to try setting up a blog where I go into more detail regarding the forecast for the area. We'll see how this pans out.

Click / tap on each graphic to enlarge.

Without further ado...

We had a really hot day today (Friday) across the eastern Carolinas, with high temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values upwards of 110 in some spots. This is in response to a large heat ridge located over the southern United States this afternoon. This ridge will break down a bit and allow a trough to set up over the eastern third of the country.

A trough is typically associated with stormy (or inclement) weather conditions. In our case, a cold front will be pushing toward the eastern Carolinas by Saturday afternoon. This will be the spark that brings showers and thunderstorms to portions of the region.

The main "dynamics" of this system will be with that wave of low pressure near Columbia, S.C. This low will move northeast along the frontal boundary to a position near the N.C./S.C. border by Sunday afternoon. The strongest dynamics with this system, and the greatest shower and storm threat, will exist along a weak sea-breeze boundary trying to push inland, as well as along the coast in general and particularly so toward northeast North Carolina. I believe this is where the brunt of the shower and storm activity will occur. BUT... while some areas may indeed remain dry, you should keep an umbrella handy for whatever plans you have Saturday.

If you look above at the 500 mb map, just off the map to the right of where I have written "trough," is the center of the Bermuda high pressure ridge, a semi-permanent summer feature which is responsible for heat and humidity. This will work as a "roadblock" on our front, causing it to go nowhere fast and eventually just dissipate Sunday and Monday.

(Again, click or tap on each to enlarge.)

This, of course, means not-so-good news for our eclipse viewing. The NWS office in Columbia, S.C., has a forecast page dedicated to the eclipse and their forecast probabilities. Before I post that, I want to show you what a couple of the weather models are "thinking" in regards to Monday afternoon.

For cloud cover... not looking all that optimistic as far as models go. The GFS tends to be quite overcast while the CMC (Canadian) tends to be a bit more optimistic with less in the way of cloud cover.

With the clouds come shower and thunderstorm chances. Again the GFS is quite bullish in regards to the precipitation coverage than the Canadian. My honest feel is that it will be someplace in between the two.

Again, my opinion is that we'll be somewhere in between. I think there'll be a pretty good skyscape of towering cumulus clouds, but most likely not a full overcast. There may be a scattering of showers and thunderstorms dotting the landscape as well. Pinning down who gets what is impossible at this point... some places will get a great view, and some, unfortunately, will not.

Here is the percentage of cloud cover and percent probability of precipitation from the NWS office in Columbia, S.C.

Unfortunately the only thing I am certain of is that it will be hot.

Ok, wrapping it all up and putting a bow on it, here are your forecast images for southeast N.C. and northeast S.C., including the beach forecast and tides.

Have a great evening. Any questions, comment here or contact me on Facebook at www.facebook.com/CCSkywatch.​

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