An undated picture released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on January 27, 2013 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un attending a consultative meeting of officials in the fields of state security and foreign affairs at an undisclosed location in North Korea.

"One thing for sure," a senior official told CNN. "They will definitely test a nuclear weapon. But the tricky thing is, nobody can tell you for your day planner that is when it will be."

One official explained the United States is not certain about the timing of a test because it would happen underground and the final preparations can't be observed by satellite.
But a level of activity has been seen at the site in recent days, including movement of people and equipment that typically would be expected ahead of a test, one of the officials said.

Last week, North Korea said that it planned to conduct a new nuclear test and carry out more rocket launches after the U.N. Security Council voted to tighten sanctions on the secretive regime. The U.N. action was in response to North Korea's successful launch of a three-stage rocket last month that put the satellite Shining Star-3 into orbit on the first anniversary of Kim Jong Il's death.

The launch also signaled that the North's long-range missile program now puts the United States within reach.

"If you go by what little activity we see and by their rhetoric, which is usually consistent with their actions, it's a good bet they will do (a test) soon," the senior official said. "The trash talk has reached such a crescendo that by their own ego, we don't see how they back down. But let me be clear, the physical signs don't show imminence, because the major activity is underground."

Declaring the sanctions to be tantamount to "a declaration of war," North Korea's threats of more missile and nuclear tests are part of what it said is a new phase of confrontation with the United States.

Pyongyang didn't say when it intends to carry out the nuclear test, which follows previous underground detonations in 2006 and 2009.

Satellite imagery shows activity at the Punggye-ri site, where those previous nuclear tests were conducted. The images were analyzed by 38 North, a website maintained by researchers at the U.S.-Korea Institute at John Hopkins University. According to their analysis, the roads surrounding the site have been kept clear of snow for the past month and suggest that the North Koreans may have been sealing the tunnel into a mountainside where a nuclear device would be detonated.

Officials say they, too, have also seen the imagery, but say it does not indicate whether the activity is a "real" intention to test, or how soon it could be done.

The administration is not sure if Pyongyang's announcement threatening further tests is an official announcement of an impending launch or a preliminary statement to be followed by announcement of a window of time during which the test will be conducted.

Even announcements of such windows are not always reliable. Last month North Korea extended its original window for the rocket launch, only to launch it before the new time frame.

"The North Koreans are experts at keeping the world guessing," one senior official said. "It's really impossible to tell beforehand" when they will act.

The North Korean's recent launch of a satellite into space caught U.S. intelligence somewhat off guard in that they were under the belief North Korea had delayed the launch a bit for technical reasons.

It is believed that North Korea put out the story of technical issues in order to throw off monitoring of its activities.

But knowing the exact timing of the nuclear test, while helpful, is not critical from a strategic or tactical point of view, given the United States is not trying to physically stop the test, some in the U.S. government argue.

soundoff(195 Responses)

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You know that Kim is not running North Korea, all the elder players in the background are still calling the shots. The rulers have completely brainwashed their own people into starving themselves to death, it is a population-suicide. There won't be an uprising because the people don't have the strength or the energy to carry it out. I see mass defections of their own military personel because they themselves don't want to starve and/or be POW's. It's only a matter of time. The country of North Korea will self-destruct in 5,4,3...

Good grief, I never saw so many ignorant comments in one place as these senseless rants here against North Korea. You people much be a bunch of hateful, blood thirsty, heartless Tea Partiers. This goes to show just how successful the right-wing media has been in brainwashing you people. What we need to do is to establish a dialogue with the North Koreans.

Wow right wing media. Tea Party member is me. Not my view point but hey you do not think that some people say something is this stereotype is just so wrong anymore .. we are lost if Americans open there stupid mouth and do not think before saying things of this nature. Sad.

Unless they build underground silos & hide the opening hatch-bays until they're ready to launch. You're dealing with North Korea.. don't think the United States has at all time the thought process to detect everything. For you to make such a statement tells me that you don't have a clue about international conflicts.

January 31, 2013 at 11:20 am |

Portland tony

Kinda dubious....... bin Laden was not a foreign government. A retaliating US would destroy NK and all governmental minions.

THis is an awful lot of talk about nothing. WHo cares exactly WHEN they will test? We know they will (unless they change their nutty minds), and that we'll have to respond. I don't know why this kind of article is considered journalism.

Amen brother. Why not take it over and make it the United States of Asia. I don't know who they think they are. It's like a squirrel kicking a pit bull. Are they kidding me. I bet I can get a group of thugs to go and take it over.

kraig, I too share your concern – but I think many fail to understand that China – a Nuclear power and part owner of America :( – would probably not take a preemptive Nuclear strike on North Korea well AT ALL – to the contrary, they would probably take it very, Very, VERY bad – thus putting us in a very BAD position.

January 31, 2013 at 7:45 am |

DaveinDallas

Why, oh why do leaders like steve not run for national office? They have this thing figured out.

The U.S. owes China way too much money. If China goes against us, they won't get paid. We are China'a BEST customer. If China goes against us, their economy/country goes right down the toilet! The country of North Korea is slowly turning into a barren wasteland. It has been so dry there, they cannot farm the land, hence no food. The people are defecting, as their military personel will eventually do as well. There is no future for North Korea, if it stays on this self-destrucive, suicidal path. There probably won't be a need for a military strike from any country on North Korea, as they will implode all on their own...

February 1, 2013 at 10:52 pm |

Jason

Don't forget that the U.S. and South Korea have joint military excersizes every year usually starting around Feb. Just thought I would throw that in there.

And your point would be what, Jason? That they have the right to arm themselves too? Youre right. Except they are doing it as they directly threaten the US with a strike. How about if you go live in North Korea with its hobbit sicko leader and see what kind of life you have.

Small bombs or not, China funds them in an attempt to force the US to tips it's missile defense strategies. The world hasn't seen our tech in that field since the Patriot missile. China is dying to know how they stack against what we have now.

I would like to see our leadership treat any threat as we do our own internal threats... if a child threatens to kill his or her classmates we immediately interceed, why not treat this threat the same? We should take their threats to heart and ask for an immediate surrender or invade as we would if a child threatened a classmate. Kennedy did it with Cuba, Clinton did it when China was threatening Tiawan... if they want to act like children we should treat them as such. Why wait for them to actually take a shot? Interceed before South Korea or America is actually being shot at. Now is the time for action, they are the aggressor.

Yeah we need to blow north Korea up. I agree' were just laughing until our soils contaminated for the next 100 years w nuclear contamination. If they threaten us, we should respond asap. Were the united states, let's stand up like our for fathers did. I'll gladly reenlist

January 31, 2013 at 6:59 pm |

n2it

We don't go after legitimate threats. Only ones that make lots of money.

China and the US and Locked in a Economic Alliance that neither side can leave even if we wanted too. We may be the polar oppsite's culturally and socially but regardless money runs the world. So we could bomb NK Iran and anyone else they would whine cry and moan but NEVER could they take action on there moral notions. And more importantly they are not stupid. There are 1.6billion people living in china but 1.4billion live on 15% of the land. Which anyone that knows anything militarily that means all we need to do is land 15 well placed (D5) and we just killed 1.4billion people and did 25trillion in industry damage. America evenually will pay the ultimate price for being the world super power but trying to play good guy and usher change into a world that regardless of any amount of technology and social revolution. The basic rules that have always proven true through history will again be proven.

All I can say is our government is like a bad parent. You know when you see those kids acting crazy in Walmart till they get what they want? Its the way our government treats hostile nations like Iran and North Korea. We will give them money and aid if they stop acting up. They pretend to be good, get our money and then start acting up again and what do we do? Offer more incentives to quit acting up. When you reward bad behavior all it does is teach them that bad behavior gets them what they want. Just like bad parenting.

On behalf of most of the reasonable people of the world... you are an i d i o t. Whenever a a juvenile dictator of a military-based economy threatens even the testing of a nuclear weapon EVERYONE should care. M oron.

Have you not seen the reports of the North Korea elementary school program training all kindergarten age kids and up to kill Americans? North Koreans are raised from early childhood to believe that their purpose in life is to kill Americans. Look it up. Are you really saying that the US is overreacting that this nation is developing a nuclear weapon that it openly claims is for the purpose of taking conflict with the US to a new level?

I say invite the entire leadership to the US and take them on a tour of everything that makes us us. Include visits with normal American families, towns, and employers. Show them everything. Even take them to some of our defense industries and military bases. When they are finished, they should leave with two impressions. We are good people and we don't want to bury them, and if they try anything we can beat them into the dirt.

You need to understand that at the first sign of trouble from either S Korea or the rest of the world, N Korea will blast Seoul into rubble with the approximately 13,000 artillery pieces they have hidden in the area north of that city. Not even nuclear, just assured destruction of the capital city from so many pinpoint-sized locations (rocket launchers, ballistic missle launchers, and long-range field pieces) that it is not possible to target and destroy them all before Seoul is in flames.

You need to understand that the Yanks bombed their country to the stone age during the Korean War. I doubt they will ever believe in the goodheartedness of the US military. Neither would the rest of the non-Anglo Saxon world. Google "Bombing Civilians: An American Tradition".

Guy's we r all in end anyway's rumors will always fly. I really do not think Obama would react quick if China Russia NK each hit us with 5 nuclear warheads a piece for each country just more sanction's ya know, same reteoric thing when Iran attack's Isereal. We kneed a president with double R'S personality's ,that will shut up all the countries wanting to do evil thing's with WMD. What do u all think?

National defense is not so simple. First, "Perfect (or guaranteed) Security" doesn't exist. As we increase our level of security the cost curve turns up dramatically. At some point we have to ask ourselves, "Is being 99% secure enough or should we push for 99.9% at the cost of better schools, healthcare, and social services? And then what about 99.99%?"

The NK's want to blow-up a nuke? Good for them! Am glad they have the where-with-all to spend on such foolishness.

Actually, the more of their limited resources that they invest in such BS high jinks the better for us, just ensures that they'll be lagging further behind as time goes on. (We might want to taunt them about the inferiority of their missile tech – all that steel embedded in the recovered wreckage... little fiber-glass/plastic, poor machining techniques... they essentially launched a 1946 ford sedan into orbit aboard a 1950's DeSoto based missile bed. This is hyperbole, I know, but it reflects the tech level being employed. Can they build more of them? Sure. Will they work as well? About as well as the DeSoto's did.)

NK has got a limited (and decreasing, thank's to their leadership – keep up the good work guys!) population/industrial base. They want to blow what they've got left on dead-end projects, we should do all that we can to encourage them in these endeavors. They want to be stupid about this, who are we to argue?

This is a win-win for the US. NK want's to waste their resources on steel-launch vehicles? Let them go for it. They want to spend their countries limited resources on refining U235/Pu239 for nukes? More power to them! The more they waste in this effort, the less of a country they will be as they're spending their populace.

The simple fact is that we can glass most of the NK military sites with half a dozen D5 missiles within 30 minutes of the time that they "launch" a steel ICBM at the US with a nuke war head. Our D5's and their RV's will work. NK's ICBM might.

I think we're wasting too much time worrying about NK. It doesn't matter what we do, what we propose. The NK government is essentially psychotic. We've got the insurance (D5's). Simply put it in place, and go on about more important business. Let them grow up, develop as they will, we've no real control here. Set up our defenses, be ready. Not our problem otherwise.

Right on the money. The reason NK has gone down this road is due to USA not reactting to everything they say or do. They are the "Look at me" country or the "Look what I can do now" trying to get a reaction. When we do not get all up-set they act out. But when they shot, we they a reaction they can not handle and back off, then start talking again. Just let them die on the vine for now.

Boy,do I love the N.Koreans,not only i hope they succeed,I hope they start selling their expertise,to any country,so the ones who think they rule this world and can do as they please learn their lesson.
if this was any other country,all options would have been on the table,funny when the usual Bully can,t make any threats besides worthless sanctions,lol.

Sure thing Visara – we should allow everyone to test a Cobalt bomb whenever they want. The entire world is still suffering from the mistakes our government knowingly made by repeatedly testing nuclear weapons. We now know the consequences of those tests on the entire WORLD. I vote that we act like North Korea and chain our slave – oops, citizen "Visara" to ground zero to test the results of the human body of our nuclear test of a Cobalt bomb.

Visara – Allowing an unstable dictatorship to develop nuclear weapons is dangerous to us even without a delivery system that can reach the United States. If a primitive weapon were to strike Seoul or Tokyo the death toll would be astronomical, retaliation would be inevitable, and the impact on a fragile global economy would be devastating. Alternatively, the threat of using their weapon would allow the North Korean government to blackmail their neighbors indefinitely. In either case, U.S. interests are not best served by ignoring this threat.

Well that's funny because the Iraqi oil contracts went to China, Germany, and a few others nations that aren't the United States. Sometimes when you say stuff it helps if you know a few facts. Of course, you could just "Google", but apparently that is to hard.

January 30, 2013 at 8:43 pm |

JOHN

First of all I would like to say, The american government and UN makes me sick with all this talk, Billions of dollars wasted,I thought the US was the super power? All we got is alot of cry babys in WASHINGTON, Time to grow up ! Drop the BIG BOMB on them, Then see if they still want to play with WMD, And why your still at it drop one on IRAN, And see if they still want to play with WMD, To WASHINGTON run the ball down the field or set on the bench.

Though I kind of agree with your analysis on China's "alliance" with NK and Iran, they wouldn't do a thing if we bombed both countries. I have been to China a few times and they are embracing the trend towards capitalism and are emulating the US in many ways, though not really socially. We also owe them a bunch of money and their economic position would suffer greatly if they tried to go to war with the US. In the case of NK, I think the US should send some missiles to take out their facilities.

January 30, 2013 at 8:34 pm |

Jeff

Army size doesn't matter. China has no way to get its troops to the U.S. America on the other hand has bases in 60 countries so they can deploy from anywhere.

Not to mention Air superiority is the most effective strategic resource around, so if those 1 million soldiers can't go anywhere and get bombed all day long it doesn't last long.

America still owns the sky.

January 30, 2013 at 8:45 pm |

David Duvall

Excellent point wjchucklebutt. However, I believe that China will be forced to do something about North Korea sooner rather than later.

January 30, 2013 at 9:06 pm |

coreyjayb

You just called for wanton genocide against innocents. How do you sleep at night?

I'm an advocate of fair play. That "terrorist proxy" and links to Iranian testing, etc, makes the entire thing greasy. Why would a 'sane', secular dictator mess with non-seculars? I'll answer my own question. Greed and anger. That's not ok. There's a lot of ways to get paid in the 2013. Supporting nuclear terrorism is unsatisfactory. KJU has to know his team sucks?!? Do we really go through this every time?

Do you know that we went to war against North korea from 1950 to 1953 ? we won the war that's why South korea today is South korea. The North invaded the South and when we took the south back from them we pushed up north and almost took North korea but we ended up fighting China.War is not a solution to resolve a conflict.of course we can fight them and we have more chances of winning but we are also going to have casualties.THINK 1ST B4 YOU TALK.WE NEED PEACE,NO WAR.

This is why america has people in line 2 bomb it the chance they get into over there head how can u call somebody a allie after u killed millions of there race hummm i hate 2 say it but the end is near for the great america !!!

Well they actually had 2 tests in the last 7 years, the first one was either a dud or just designed to be very weak (about 1kt). The second test was more sucessful but still very weak (about 4 or 5kt). If I remember correctly the first test was in 2006 and the second was in 2007... so in about a year they managed to improve their design and output by 4 fold. I think given the amount of time that's passed since their last test they may have improved their design even more. But, even if they improved their design they may have run out of uranium as their last batch was made using old fuel cells from their power plants.... not sure if how much they managed to make or if they used it all up the first two times. For all we know the DRPK might just be putting on a show to mess with everyone, they love putting on shows. Long story short, we just need to wait and see what happens.... and hope they don't do something stupid like test thier bomb in the South.

Shows the hypocrisy with American foreign policy. Iran's being made into a 'clear and present danger' for a nuclear program still without actual devices, whereas North Korea about to test its third device while making deliberately provocative statements against the US is left untouched. We drop bombs like we get a discount from American arms manufacturers if we buy the next order in the next ten minutes, but when an actual threat arises as with NK we don't act. Negative reinforcement doesn't work if it's not implemented quickly and consistently. I fear the way we tolerate North Korea and their nuclear program will be how we begrugingly tolerate Iran's.

Good sir, I recommend you take a few days to evaluate North Korean and US military capabilities. North Korea is not even remotely close to being a threat to the United States. But don't take my word for it, look into it yourself.
Good luck!

North Korea and Iran may be crazy, but neither's stupid. Neither's likely to attack the US directly because of the retaliation they'd be inviting. The worry with a North Korean or Iranian nuclear device is them "losing it" and deploying it via terrorist-proxy. Doesn't have to be a megaton class device, any mushroom cloud will do, even a sub-Hiroshima class man-portable device like the "Davey Crocket" 5 kiloton artillery shell which 1 man can carry. But the worst-case scenario isn't a ground detonation at all but a sub-orbital detonation for the EMP effect which would destroy electronics over a very wide area. Over say New York you could wipe out the American economy (via Wall Street) with the one-shot you get. Militarily, neither's a match or serious threat, but with nukes you don't have to be a superpower to do superpower damage.

January 30, 2013 at 7:24 pm |

Jeff

The difference is we have a strategic alliance with Israel and Iran is VERY likely to attack Israel. So that would drag us into another war.

January 30, 2013 at 8:47 pm |

Larry

We have to be mindful that Korea is next to China. The muslims now there is a whole other phenomenon.

Do you know that we went to war against North korea from 1950 to 1953 ? we won the war that's why South korea today is South korea. The North invaded the South and when we took the south back from them we pushed up north and almost took North korea but we ended up fighting China.War is not a solution to resolve a conflict.of course we can fight them and we have more chances of winning but we are also going to have casualties.THINK 1ST B4 YOU TALK.WE NEED PEACE,NO WAR.

First, there was no north and south korea in 1950. So technically we didn't go to war against north korea. We didn't win the war. that is why the country is still divided. The two countries are still at war. It is true the North side invaded (more like broke out) a war and since north was alliance with China and Russia, and south with US, we ended up fighting China. I agree War is not a solution especially since North Korea is still alliance of China.

January 30, 2013 at 8:09 pm |

BE CAREFUL

the soviet had the north after the ww2.it was already split.the north tried to combine the south and make it a communist territory.you probably didnt know that but you can go head and do some research and you will see that it's true.

January 30, 2013 at 8:17 pm |

huku

..GO N.K..I RESPECT THE FACT THAT U DNT SUCK UP TO U.S UNLIKE OTHER THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES

The instant they test the nuke, just send in a tactical strike to wipe their primary government off of the map. The only thing they will respect at this point is a show of force. And I hate using force.

You idiots have no idea what would happen in a war with north Korea. They have thousands of mid and short range ballistic missiles. It's estimated that they would cause 20,000 to 80,000 casualties in the first hour. They also have a very modern and capable air defense system the Chinese gave them. Every first world economy in the world would eventually collapse in a dynamo effect starting with China.

Dude, get your geography and racist name calling right! He's KOREAN not CHINESE.

January 30, 2013 at 7:16 pm |

paul

HUESSEIN, GADAFFI,afghanistan, eygpt, tunisia, dictators would normally send little KIM JONG NUN a message he is about to DEARLY DEPARTED, his confidence is big brother china is putting him up to it, the americans could wipe him off the map, but they don,t want to engage china, EITHER YOU WIPE EVERYONE OFF THE MAP OR YOU LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DEATHS.

"Their rhetoric . . . is usually consistent with their actions?" I guess that means that they will attack us once they develop the capability. My guess (which is as accurate as yours or any of the Korean policy analysts the media consults) is that we'll wait around another five years and do nothing and then it will be too late. This is history in the making folks! Let's hope we survive what follows.

Jimmy Carter began this blackmail for food/fuel......NK acts up and when we object, they say we'll stop, but we want winter fuel oil and food. OK, we give them food. They behave for a short time, then start up again......and on and on and on.....

No more food, no more fuel, no more financial aid. If we can keep the rest of the global butt loaders on the boat, maybe N Korea will attack someone and we can shoot back and FINALLY shut the little twerp up.

Why don't any of the media do some investigative reporting? There is plenty of evidence to inidcate that Iran is testing its nuclear bomb with the help of the North Koreans. Last moths missle test was likely Iranian in design as well.

North Korea is a child-like regime and should be treated that way. Let them have their little underground test. They will still be going to bed hungry. I say the next time they attempt a rocket launch, we do a little testing of our own by shooting it down.

Another hateful comment from another right-wing Tea Partier or is that you again Phunnie boy, posting under a new name? Either way, these hateful, right-wing, pro-war, sadistic comments are starting to get old!!!

Everytime they say they are going to do something like this YOUR president says do not or else...and everytime he does nothing..lets wait tell them luniticks land one of there flying terds in the US before we wipe them out..

January 30, 2013 at 5:16 pm |

the REAL George S. Patton

That poster is an imposter. He's a left-wing lunatic masquerading as me. Everything his writes is contrary to both my opinions and common sense.

I think either way it depends on China and Russia more than NK or the USA. I doubt the USA could afford to do nothing and pray that NK never puts a nuke on a missle and says it is just another sattelite launch. We will put up more missle defense systems regardless, which of course will only change their deployment model. Russia and China could block further sanctions or actions on NK directly like they have done with Syria.

I think if there was a first strike on the USA the number of friends we have that would unconditionally stand by us are a small number, probably GB, NZ, Australia, Israel, and Canada. Our European and Asian friends could become overtly absent or opportunistic overnight.

If the USA were ever hit with a nuclear first strike, I can gurantee Canada would be with you unconditionally under NORAD. NATO is becoming weakened, and yes, most would probably bolt. GB, NZ, and the Auzzies would be too. Isreal would probably be up to its ears with its own problems. Lets hope it never gets to that.

January 30, 2013 at 6:11 pm |

JOSH P.

Since when Israel with those Zionist weer our friends,They are just opportunistic parasites,they kill Americans at will,Spy on us and you call that friend,right.

January 30, 2013 at 8:25 pm |

Anthony

It is important to understand that NK is a long long ways away from "putting a nuke on missile". Even with very advanced rockets, the US spent considerable resources shrinking a nuclear weapon for the task. NKs current nuclear weapons are like 100 times heavier then the rocket is capable of delivering.

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