NFL in L.A. not likely until 2014 or later

LOS ANGELES – It could be years before the NFL agrees to allow franchises to move to the Los Angeles-Orange County market, according to former NFL and pro sports executives and consultants involved in previous NFL team relocations and stadium projects, even if the Los Angeles City Council approves the Anschutz Entertainment Group's plans for a $1.5 billion downtown stadium as expected Friday.

While AEG and Los Angeles city officials insist they are closer to securing an NFL franchise than at any other point since the Rams and Raiders left the region in 1995, league officials continue to have major questions about the viability of both AEG's Farmers Field project and plans for an $800 million privately funded stadium in the City of Industry, the executives and consultants said in a series of interviews this week.

"The NFL is not going to allow this to be done unless and until they're absolutely convinced it's going to be successful," said Marc Ganis, president of the Chicago-based SportsCorp Ltd., and a consultant on the Raiders' move to Oakland from Los Angeles.

The uncertainty surrounding the sale of AEG by its parent company is just one in a series of significant obstacles the nation's second largest media market still must overcome before securing an NFL team, the sports executives and consultants said.

"No one in Los Angeles," Ganis said, "should think (NFL commissioner) Roger Goodell is going to have his head turn by PR spin or politicians' statements."

Teams can apply to relocate as early as Jan. 1, 2013, and the NFL could conceivably approve a franchise move at its league meeting next March. But it is more likely that the NFL would not be ready until 2014 or even 2015 to sign off on one or more franchises relocating to Southern California, the executives and consultants said.

By then AEG's Farmer Field and the City of Industry project backed by billionaire developer Ed Roski's Majestic Reality could be facing competition from stadium projects at three other Southern California sites including Dodger Stadium, the executives and consultants said.

AEG officials and the projects supporters in City Hall insist that today's approval of a deal between the city and the sports and entertainment giant on plans to build Farmers Field and renovate the Los Angeles Convention Center just days after AEG was put up for sale is critical for the project to be viable in time for the NFL's March meetings.

The NFL, however, does not share AEG and city officials sense of urgency, said former NFL executives.

"Los Angeles is the nation's second largest city but the NFL has had unprecedented growth without it," said Charley Casserly, a former general manager with the Washington Redskins and Houston Texans.

Some critics of what they describe as the city's fast-tracking of the Farmers Field project said they wished Los Angeles officials would show similar restraint. The city council should not sign off any deal with AEG until after the company is sold, critics said.

"The NFL is notorious for being selective about who gets to enter into its club, so why shouldn't the city be equally concerned?" said Greg Nelson, chief of staff for former Los Angeles city council member Joel Wachs.

"Shouldn't we just take a step back and find out what we're dealing with?" asked Kevin James, a Los Angeles mayor candidate.

But insisting that the next owner of AEG will be bound by safeguards for the city in the deal expected to be approved on today, AEG and Los Angeles officials said the approval is vital to maintaining momentum for the project as it moves toward the NFL's March meetings.

"This is the best deal ever made in the history of the NFL for a stadium," AEG chief executive Tim Leiweke said. "We're the closest we've ever been to returning the NFL to L.A."

Los Angeles city council member Jan Perry told Leiweke earlier week that with today's vote she wanted to "get you a touchdown." Even some of projects most vocal opponents acknowledge approval is a foregone conclusion.

"This deal has been done for a while," James said. "This is just a formality."

Yet even with the city's approval the NFL's return to the Los Angeles-Orange County market is far from a done deal.

The NFL wanted to place a team in Los Angeles when the league expanded to 32 teams in 1999, said Casserly. Instead the league awarded a franchise to Houston when Los Angeles officials were unable to present a viable stadium plan.

"I was in the room in 1999 and there was clear sentiment to vote for L.A.," Casserly said. "If this was 1999 Los Angeles would have a team."

But in 2012 with expansion not an option, AEG and Majestic officials must not only sell the NFL on their stadium plans but find a franchise willing and able to relocate.

"The biggest issue is always the same," Ganis said, "getting a team."

Ganis and other longtime followers of Los Angeles' pursuit of the NFL said the two leading candidates to move to the region, San Diego and St. Louis, aren't likely to be available next March.

While Chargers officials had extended, if ultimately unsuccessful, negotiations with Philip Anschutz, the Colorado billionaire who owns AEG's parent company, the Chargers also continue to pursue a new stadium in San Diego.

The Rams and the St. Louis Convention and Visitors Commission are currently in non-binding arbitration over proposed improvements to the Edward Jones Dome. According to the Rams' lease if the stadium is not among the top quarter of NFL stadiums the Rams can move after the 2014 season.

By then the City of Industry project might not be AEG's only competition locally.

"I think it's more than a two project race," Ganis said. "The Farmers Field project has got all the attention but it hasn't gotten done. That's not a coincidence."

Ganis is among those who believe a football stadium at Chavez Ravine, the current home of Dodger Stadium, could end up in the mix. Leiweke said this week he expected to Guggenheim Partners, the new owners of the Dodgers, to be interested in purchasing AEG.

"Chavez Ravine," Ganis said, "has always been the best site, it's just not politically palatable."

But Michael Rowe, CEO of Positive Impact, a New Jersey-based sports and entertainment management group, said AEG and Farmers Field remain the frontrunner in the race to land an NFL franchise.

"AEG's work has clearly put Farmers Field in the forefront," said Rowe, a former New Jersey Nets president and vice president of the Meadowlands Sports Complex. "AEG and Tim (Leiweke) have put themselves in position to where it's theirs to lose."

Rowe, however, acknowledged that Goodell and the NFL "can turn on a dime. The NFL is not going to be married to a site."

And so far the NFL has shown it still has cold feet when it comes to Los Angeles.

"The NFL has thrived without Los Angeles for 17 years," Ganis said. "Not lived without it, thrived without it.

"Ultimately the NFL's return to Los Angeles is not going to be driven by a developer, is not going to be driven by politicians, is not going to be driven by a site," Ganis said. "It's going to be team and league driven and not by a third party."

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