@Redistrict's Threads

Beginning to think the CW that "Joe Biden would be such a great general election candidate for Dems if only he could make it past the primaries" might actually have it a bit backwards.

Right now, Biden is the best-positioned candidate in a field of record-breaking size to hit 15% thresholds virtually *everywhere,* which is a really underrated advantage when it comes to building a delegate lead.

He's also got a considerable regional head start in the South, thanks to his huge early advantage with African-American voters (name ID + Obama nostalgia) & because there are no candidates from the region (unless you count TX).

A long-term problem for Democrats: a majority of the Senate now represents 18% of the country’s population.

And, 60% of the Senate now represents just 24% of the country’s population. This penalty for Dems is on full display in 2018: nytimes.com/2018/08/20/opi…

For all the gerrymandering in the House, it's actually the Senate that's vastly more unrepresentative. The fact it's remotely close owes to 11 red-state Dem senators - almost entirely up in 2018 - who have hung on thanks to an extraordinary combination of skill & luck.

1) your voters aren’t turning out2) your incumbents are getting outraised3) the other party has candidates in virtually all 435 districts4) you keep waiting for things to “get better” and they don’t.

2010, meet your mirror image: 2018.

I could add many more:

5) your incumbents in tough districts are calling it quits6) voters start caring about your side’s scandals a lot more than your opponents’7) you recently started voting against your own party/president but voters aren’t giving you any credit