This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

DECEMBER 2002 KEY POINTS

Trend

Trend estimates indicate that total new motor vehicle sales have been falling at an increasing rate since September 2002. December 2002 recorded a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous month. Decreases were recorded for both passenger vehicle sales (1.0%) and other vehicle sales (2.7%).

Northern Territory was the only state or territory to record an increase (0.7%) in trend estimates of total new motor vehicle sales for December 2002. Queensland recorded the largest decrease (2.3%).

Seasonally adjusted

The seasonally adjusted estimate of total new motor vehicle sales fell by 9.0% in December 2002 compared with November 2002. Decreases were recorded for passenger vehicle sales (7.9%) and other vehicle sales (11.2%).

NOTES

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1

The January 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

2

The January 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the December 2002 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)

Other vehicles (a) (No.)

Total vehicles (No.)

Change Passenger vehicles (%)

Change Other vehicles (%)

Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2001

October

45,575

20,805

66,380

13.2

9.5

12.0

November

47,510

23,252

70,762

4.2

11.8

6.6

December

48,193

20,838

69,031

1.4

-10.4

-2.4

2002

January

39,779

18,778

58,557

-17.5

-9.9

-15.2

February

42,776

22,019

64,795

7.5

17.3

10.7

March

44,828

22,996

67,824

4.8

4.4

4.7

April

42,052

21,834

63,886

-6.2

-5.1

-5.8

May

46,448

26,675

73,123

10.5

22.2

14.5

June

49,101

29,680

78,781

5.7

11.3

7.7

July

45,923

23,859

69,782

-6.5

-19.6

-11.4

August

45,122

24,525

69,647

-1.7

2.8

-0.2

September

43,396

22,638

66,034

-3.8

-7.7

-5.2

October

48,269

24,063

72,332

11.2

6.3

9.5

November

47,229

24,346

71,575

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

December

45,317

22,656

67,973

-4.0

-6.9

-5.0

Seasonally Adjusted

2001

October

43,431

21,252

64,683

-2.2

-2.9

-2.4

November

43,864

21,910

65,774

1.0

3.1

1.7

December

46,133

20,054

66,187

5.2

-8.5

0.6

2002

January

49,079

24,810

73,889

6.4

23.7

11.6

February

45,699

23,668

69,367

-6.9

-4.6

-6.1

March

43,408

21,857

65,265

-5.0

-7.7

-5.9

April

45,648

23,651

69,299

5.2

8.2

6.2

May

45,401

24,316

69,717

-0.5

2.8

0.6

June

44,705

23,749

68,454

-1.5

-2.3

-1.8

July

44,390

24,048

68,438

-0.7

1.3

0.0

August

45,301

25,217

70,518

2.1

4.9

3.0

September

45,947

25,194

71,141

1.4

-0.1

0.9

October

45,791

24,955

70,746

-0.3

-0.9

-0.6

November

45,464

23,406

68,870

-0.7

-6.2

-2.7

December

41,865

20,783

62,648

-7.9

-11.2

-9.0

Trend

2001

October

44,334

21,541

65,875

1.2

1.8

1.4

November

44,910

21,875

66,785

1.3

1.6

1.4

December

45,425

22,214

67,639

1.1

1.5

1.3

2002

January

45,785

22,601

68,386

0.8

1.7

1.1

February

45,873

22,979

68,852

0.2

1.7

0.7

March

45,672

23,291

68,963

-0.4

1.4

0.2

April

45,308

23,555

68,863

-0.8

1.1

-0.1

May

44,990

23,834

68,824

-0.7

1.2

-0.1

June

44,971

24,216

69,187

0.0

1.6

0.5

July

45,169

24,574

69,743

0.4

1.5

0.8

August

45,319

24,726

70,045

0.3

0.6

0.4

September

45,248

24,515

69,763

-0.2

-0.9

-0.4

October

45,012

24,067

69,079

-0.5

-1.8

-1.0

November

44,643

23,473

68,116

-0.8

-2.5

-1.4

December

44,215

22,847

67,062

-1.0

-2.7

-1.5

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.