LOWELL -- In the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat left open by John Kerry's ascension to secretary of state, a recent poll showed U.S. Rep. Edward Markey with a commanding lead over U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch.

The poll numbers came on the heels of both the national Democratic Party establishment and some state power brokers throwing their support behind Markey, of Malden, leaving Lynch the clear underdog in the April 30 primary.

But for Lynch, of South Boston, being counted out in a political race is nothing new, and hasn't stopped him from scoring some upset victories.

It is that history that has left Lynch and his supporters optimistic he can claim another surprise win, and political analysts and consultants saying they would not rule out a Lynch triumph.

"You can never count out Steve Lynch," said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh. "He has always defied the odds."

Lynch's first upset victory in a political campaign came in his first fun for public office when he challenged incumbent state Rep. Paul Gannon, a fellow Democrat, for the seat.

Both candidates had ties to local labor, but Lynch secured a victory in the primary and claimed the seat in the 1994 general election.

A little more than a year later, Lynch decided he was going to try to make the leap to the state Senate when then-Senate President William Bulger announced he was resigning the seat he held for more than two decades.

Lynch decided to run, knowing the man Bulger was supporting to capture the seat was his son, William Bulger Jr.

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The Democratic primary battle between Lynch and Bulger divided the community.

In a recent interview with The Sun, Lynch recalled the morning his campaign had decided to hold a visibility event outside the Broadway subway station in South Boston at 5:30 one morning.

When Lynch arrived, he spotted hundreds of volunteers with signs for him, but he also saw 500 people with signs supporting Bulger.

"It was so personal and so close to the ground," Lynch said. "That was as close to a Civil War that I've ever been in."

Despite the loyalty many felt in South Boston to the departing Senate president, Lynch bested Bulger's son easily in the primary and demolished his Republican opponent in the general election.

After serving several terms in the state Senate, it was the departure of another long-serving politician that prompted Lynch to seek higher office. This time it was the death in 2001 of Congressman Joseph Moakley, a South Boston Democrat in the then-Ninth Congressional District and a mentor to Lynch.

Moakley's departure prompted a number of well-known Democrats to enter the race to succeed Moakley in addition to Lynch, including state Sens. Cheryl Jacques, Brian Joyce and Marc Pacheco.

Many saw Jacques as the favorite, but Lynch bested her by 10 points on election day, to claim the primary. He would also easily win his battle with a Republican to claim the seat.

Lynch has served in Congress since.

Lynch admits he is an underdog in the race and calls himself an outsider because the Democratic establishment in Washington picked Markey to be the next U.S. senator. Some people resent that people wanted to circumvent the election, he said, and those people have thrown their energy behind him.

"I sort of like it," Lynch said of his underdog status at a rally at the Blue Shamrock pub Friday night. "It works for me. It makes you work twice as hard. It certainly is making me work very, very hard in this race."

Lynch said he thinks as election day draws nearer, the race is going to tighten up.

"To borrow a hockey term, I might have to pull the goalie to win this thing, but I'm ready to do that. I think I'm going to win."

A recent UMass Lowell/Boston Herald poll indicated Lynch has his work cut out for him.

The survey released earlier this month had Markey leading Lynch 50 percent to 20.5 percent among potential Democratic primary voters. Twenty-three percent of the 600 registered voters polled were undecided.

Frank Talty, co-director for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell, said he would not read too much into the poll because both candidates remain broadly unknown to the electorate. Half of those polled had no opinion of Markey or had never heard of him, while about 60 percent of those surveyed had no opinion of Lynch or had not heard of him.

"A large portion of the electorate simply has not paid attention yet," Talty said. "What will have a major impact on the race is who makes the most compelling case in the last few weeks."

A mid-February WBUR poll showing Markey with a 38 to 31 percent lead among likely Democratic primary voters shows a much closer race.

Both Talty and Marsh said a key for Lynch, who is unlikely to have the level of financial resources Markey will have to spend, will be the ground game, which they said has helped him win races he was not expected to in the past. Members of unions that endorse Lynch will be critical to a strong get-out-the-vote effort, they said.

"Lynch has always had a somewhat under-the-radar, but very effective campaign organization," Marsh said. "For him to have a shot at winning the Senate primary, he has to outhustle Markey on the ground every day until election day and on election day."

State Rep. Tom Golden said Lynch is primed to do what it takes to win the primary, especially because he entered the race knowing the challenges he face.

"He said he would be starting the race from behind, but that is just where he wants to be," said Golden, who is backing Lynch. "He was ready to do what it takes to overcome that."

Former state Sen. Steven Panagiotakos, who hosted Friday's event at the Blue Shamrock, said he was happy when he saw Lynch was down in the polls.

"He's exactly where we want him," Panagiotakos said.

"In all those elections, by the time Election Day came around, the only poll that counted, more people went to the polls and said, 'I am (for) Steve Lynch,' " Panagiotakos added.

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