Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines

Abstract

Measures of entrepreneurship, such as average establishment size and the prevalence of start-ups, correlate strongly with employment growth across and within metropolitan areas, but the endogeneity of these measures bedevils interpretation. Chinitz (1961) hypothesized that coal mines near Pittsburgh led that city to specialization in industries, like steel, with significant scale economies and that those big firms led to a dearth of entrepreneurial human capital across several generations. We test this idea by looking at the spatial location of past mines across the United States: proximity to historical mining deposits is associated with bigger firms and fewer start-ups in the middle of the 20th century. We use mines as an instrument for our entrepreneurship measures and find a persistent link between entrepreneurship and city employment growth; this connection works primarily through lower employment growth of start-ups in cities that are closer to mines. These effects hold in cold and warm regions alike and in industries that are not directly related to mining, such as trade, finance and services. We use quantile instrumental variable regression techniques and identify mostly homogeneous effects throughout the conditional city growth distribution.

We examine the relationship between house prices and entrepreneurship using micro data from the US Census Bureau. Increases in house prices are often thought to drive entrepreneurship through unlocking the collateral channel for bank loans, but this interpretation is challenged by worries regarding omitted variable biases (e.g., rising local demand) or wealth effects (i.e., that wealthier people are more likely to enter entrepreneurship for reasons other than access to collateral). We construct an empirical environment that utilizes very localized price changes, exploits variations in initial home values across residents in the same zip code, and embeds multiple comparisons (e.g., owners vs. renters, homestead exemption laws by state). For the United States during the 2000-2004 period, the link of home prices to the rate of entrepreneurship is relatively small in economic magnitude. This is despite a focus on a time period that experienced the largest concentration of US home price growth over the last two decades. While collateral plays a role in the entry that we observe, wealth effects appear to be more important.

Neil Kashyap and Neil Lombardo (HBS'08) acquired Winnan Metal, Inc., a metal fabrication shop, after raising a search fund and an 11 month search to fulfill their dreams of becoming business owners. Two weeks after they took control of the company, Winnan's largest customer (60% of company revenues) threatened to take its business elsewhere. One year later, they had regained the respect of their customers and won the trust of their employees to promote a new culture of empowerment and respect. They wondered how to prioritize options to grow the business as they did not want to spread themselves too thin.