Virginia Commonwealth (plus-2.5) vs. Butler: The line opened at 2.5 and hasn’t budged. Butler has the edge in experience, VCU in momentum. VCU wants it to be frenetic, while Butler is more comfortable in a moderate tempo. If the Bulldogs shoot well, they’ll limit VCU’s transition opportunities and have a chance to set their defense — and I do not think VCU will have much success against Butler’s fabulous halfcourt defense. So will the Bulldogs shoot well enough to keep the game at their pace? Oh, the uncertainty. Pick: Butler.

Connecticut (plus-2) vs. Kentucky: I picked UConn for the Final Four in the office pool — the only team I got right — but cannot bring myself to pick the Huskies here. When it’s tight down the stretch, Kentucky has six players capable of making a big basket; UConn only has three. Even if Kemba counts double, UK still has the playmaking advantage. Pick: Kentucky.

Butler (plus-4) vs. Connecticut: I’ve covered with Butler in the third round, Sweet 16, E8 and F4 and there’s no reason to back away from the Bulldogs getting points here — in a game I think they will win outright. Yes, UConn is tourney-tested and savvy in tight games, but so is Butler. Yes, UConn has Kemba Walker, but Butler’s perimeter defense, led by Ronald Nored, is the best in the country. And I’m not sure UConn has the frontcourt firepower (like Florida, for instance) that can cause big problems for the Bulldogs. It will be close and ugly. Pick: Butler.