UFC 215 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

I’m really sorry that the betting tips for UFC 215 have been posted later in the week than usual. Normally I like to get at least one tip posted by the Wednesday before an event, but there were a few fighters competing at UFC 215 that I didn’t feel comfortable betting on until we could see how they looked at the weigh ins. Fortunately for us, one of the fighters I wanted to bet on looked great at the weigh ins, so it’s time to pull the trigger…

Don’t forget to keep checking this article regularly for updates because I may add more betting tips as we get closer to the time of the event.

In the table above we give our picks and predictions for every fight. This is to help you put together teams in Fantasy MMA or enter Pick’em competitions. Please do not bet on all of these picks. You should only bet on our official VIP Betting Tips that you can find further down this page.

These picks and predictions are based on which fighters we perceive to have the best betting value. This doesn’t necessarily mean we think the fighter we pick has any notable advantage over their opponent.

The results of these picks are not tracked. We share them with the community because some members use them to enter Fantasy MMA and Pick’em competitions.

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Neil Magny vs Rafael Dos Anjos Betting Tip and Prediction

Rafael Dos Anjos was one of the many victims of USADA, and in some ways, you could say that Neil Magny was one of the beneficiaries. So what does that mean for this fight? How can we use our knowledge of what has happened in the last 18 months to make a profit on this matchup?

First, let us start by establishing what we know is true…

We know for a fact that Rafael Dos Anjos has declined significantly since the new USADA drug testing came into effect. We also know, based on his performance against Tarec Saffiedine that he still has the skills to compete against the best fighters in the world. The difference in Dos Anjos pre USADA and post USADA is that he now lacks the cardio and volume to compete at a high level for 15 minutes.

So what does that mean in this fight?

When we’re dealing with a fighter who has significantly declined since USADA came into effect, we have to disregard all their performances before January 2016 and focus solely on what we’ve seen since the new drug testing program has been around.

For this betting tip, I am basing my opinion solely on Rafael Dos Anjos’ performance against Tarec Saffiedine and his current career trajectory.

After spending a couple of hours researching this fight, I do believe that Dos Anjos is a good bet because I don’t believe that he has declined to the point where he can’t beat a guy like Neil Magny. He’s certainly not going to be winning a title anytime soon, but he’s still good enough to beat most guys ranked outside of the top 5 in the Welterweight division.

I don’t expect this to be an easy fight for Dos Anjos, but I do think he’s going to win. This is how I see the fight playing out…

Neil Magny is very good at being the hammer, but he’s not very good at being the nail, and if you establish dominance against him you can put him into a defensive shell very quickly. One of the things that Dos Anjos does well is that he punishes his opponent for entering striking range by uncorking massive body and leg kicks from the Southpaw stance. Magny has skinny legs and a thin torso. RDA’s devasting kicks will do a significant amount of damage, and more importantly, they’ll make Magny think twice before committing to a strike. This kind of dynamic and RDA’s ability to put Magny into a defensive shell should reduce Magny’s volume because he’ll be scared of getting countered with a huge, fight ending kick every time he tries to throw one of his lazy jabs.

The one, single most important reason why I believe Dos Anjos is a good bet can be found by going back and watching Magny’s last fight against Johny Hendricks. At this point, it is accepted by everyone that Hendricks is on a very steep decline and yet Magny was just seconds away from losing to Hendricks 30-27. If you go back and watch that fight, you’ll see that he was 20 seconds away from losing the 1st round until he caught Hendricks in a late triangle. He got dominated in the 2nd round and he was also very close to losing the 3rd round until he caught Hendricks in another late triangle.

Why is this significant?

This is significant because Magny’s takedown defense is non-existent and Dos Anjos’ reactive takedowns are excellent. Dos Anjos is also powerful from top position, and he is a high-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt. He is one of the few guys who was able to hang on the ground with Khabib Nurmagomedov.

To quantify my reasons for betting on Dos Anjos in the simplest of ways…

Magny isn’t going to be able to keep this fight standing, and when he’s on his back, he’s not going to be able to do anything to get RDA off of him.

For that reason, even in the face of Dos Anjos’ steep decline since USADA came into effect, I still believe that he will win this fight because he has the skills, fight IQ and heart to execute the same game plan that Johny Hendricks couldn’t quite see through till the end.

We also have to take into account the fact that Magny lacks the power in his hands to back people up and Dos Anjos is very good at pressuring his opponent’s from Boxing range. Magny’s 9-inch reach advantage isn’t going to be useful because Dos Anjos will fight his way into Boxing range and land significant damage.

This is one of those bets that I don’t entirely love because I’m not a fan of betting on aging Brazilians, but it’s also one of those bets where I do see definite value. Based on my research I feel that RDA should be closer to a 1.40 | -250 favorite, which means we’re getting a decent amount of value in the current odds. I don’t expect this bet to be an easy winner, but I do expect RDA to get it done and win 29-28 on all the scorecards.

Reasons for betting on Rafael Dos Anjos to beat Neil Magny...

Neil Magny has very bad takedown defense. Rafael Dos Anjos has strong wrestling, powerful reactive takedowns and he’s also heavy from top position.

Rafael Dos Anjos is a high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu Black Belt. His ground game is at a much higher level than Magny’s.

Magny spends too long fighting off his back. He is not very good at getting back up once his opponent has taken him down.

Magny likes to fight on the outside and counter strike. Rafael Dos Anjos does a great job of taking the centre of the Octagon, holding it and applying constant pressure to his opponent’s. This striking dynamic normally favours the fighter who holds the centre of the Octagon. Judges are much more inclined to score rounds in favour of the fighter being the aggressor. What I’m trying to say is… It won’t be easy for Neil Magny to win rounds with his usual style of counter striking from the outside.

Rafael Dos Anjos is significantly better than Neil Magny in every single aspect of MMA.

Neil Magny has skinny legs and a thin torso. Rafael Dos Anjos has devastating body and leg kicks. Dos Anjos can inflict significant damage on Magny with these kicks.

Dos Anjos has excellent fight IQ.

Dos Anjos does an excellent job of keeping his opponent’s guessing by mixing up his striking and grappling.

Rafael Dos Anjos is a Southpaw.

Now that Rafael Dos Anjos has experience fighting at Welterweight, I expect him to look even better in his second fight at 170.

Neil Magny does not like to get hit. He tends to go into a defensive shell if you hurt him. He often shows signs of pain to his opponent. This gives them the reads they need to gain the upper hand in a fight.

Neil Magny lacks the power in his hands to hurt Rafael Dos Anjos.

Rafael Dos Anjos has an excellent chin and great striking defence. He does a great job of fighting his way into Boxing range without taking too much damage.

Risk factors with betting on Rafael Dos Anjos to win...

Neil Magny has a significant size advantage over Rafael Dos Anjos. He is 7 inches taller and has a 9 inch reach advantage.

Rafael Dos Anjos has significantly declined since USADA came into effect.

Dos Anjos can no longer fight at a high pace for 15 minutes. Instead he has to use his high level skills to dictate the pace of a fight.

Neil Magny has excellent cardio.

Our Betting Tip

Rafael Dos Anjos to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.62
Moneyline = -161
Fractional = 31/50

62%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Rafael Dos Anjos has a 62% chance of beating Neil Magny based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

We believe that Rafael Dos Anjos has a 70% chance of beating Neil Magny based on our extensive research and analysis.

Gavin Tucker vs Rick Glenn Betting Tip and Prediction

I was initially planning to put Demetrious Johnson and Gavin Tucker into a parlay accumulator, but since Johnson vs Borg is now canceled, we’re going to bet Gavin Tucker straight instead.

Gavin Tucker is new to the UFC and we don’t know that much about him yet, but sometimes you can just tell that a fighter is going to be special from the way they move and the way they react to certain situations.

In the last 12 months, we’ve seen potential stars like Darren Till, Shane Burgos and Jimmie Rivera emerge out of nowhere and based on what I’ve seen so far I believe that Gavin Tucker could be the next big thing in the 145-pound division.

I am a big fan of Rick Glenn. He’s tough, he’s well rounded, and he always brings it, but there are different levels to this sport, and Gavin Tucker is several levels above Rick Glenn in every single aspect of MMA.

The deciding factor in this matchup will be Tucker’s speed and footwork. Glenn’s style of fighting is slow and plodding, while Tucker has the speed, cardio, and technique to dance around him all night.

Dominick Cruz and TJ Dillashaw have shown us that unorthodox footwork and movement can be incredibly effective in the lighter weight classes and I truly believe that Tucker is capable of breaking into the top 10 of the Featherweight division.

I’m very high on Gavin Tucker and with home advantage on his side, I think he’ll comfortably beat Rick Glenn.

Reasons for betting on Gavin Tucker to beat Rick Glenn...

Gavin Tucker is much faster than Rick Glenn.

Gavin Tucker has high level footwork, movement and striking. He’s like a Ghost in the Octagon. It will be very hard for Glenn to land anything significant.

Rick Glenn has a slow, plodding style of fighting. Tucker is very active, but at the same time he is elusive and great defensively. He should be able to stay on the outside and chip away at Glenn.

Gavin Tucker is a tricky, unorthodox, switch stance fighter.

Gavin Tucker sets a lot of traps by using different patterns and combinations to mislead his opponent. It is incredibly difficult to work him out and by the time you have worked him out the fight will be over…

Tucker has good fight IQ. He understands the importance of pacing himself, staying active and mixing up his attacks.

Gavin Tucker is Canadian, so he’ll have home advantage on his side.

Rick Glenn is very orthodox in his approach to fighting. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it is the exact kind of opponent who someone like Gavin Tucker will thrive against. Tucker absolutely wants someone to come forward and try to fight him in a traditional way and this is exactly what Rick Glenn will do.

Risk factors with betting on Gavin Tucker to win...

Rick Glenn has a significant size advantage over Gavin Tucker. He is 6 inches taller and has a 4 inch reach advantage.

Rick Glenn is extremely tough. He has a great chin, fights at a high pace and he also has amazing cardio.

This is a step up in competition for Gavin Tucker. He has never fought anyone as good as Rick Glenn before now.

Our Betting Tip

Gavin Tucker to win

Stake

4 Units

[4% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.36
Moneyline = -278
Fractional = 9/25

74%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Gavin Tucker has a 74% chance of beating Rick Glenn based on their current odds.

80%

Our Probability

We believe that Gavin Tucker has an 80% chance of beating Rick Glenn based on our extensive research and analysis.

Amanda Nunes vs Valentina Shevchenko Betting Tip and Prediction

When Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko first fought back in 2016, we made a solid profit by betting on Nunes to win. This time around I recommend switching our pick and betting on Shevchenko to win instead.

After spending a couple of hours researching this fight, I feel confident that Shevchenko will win. If this were a 3 round fight, I’d probably lean more towards Nunes, but I believe it’s going to be difficult for Nunes to finish Shevchenko inside the distance and even more difficult for her to fight at a competitive pace for 25 minutes. It’s possible that Nunes could have improved her cardio since their first fight, but based on historical data it is highly unlikely.

I also feel that Valentina Shevchenko has improved significantly since their first fight. If you go back and watch that matchup, you will see that Shevchenko was comfortably controlling the striking exchanges and Nunes looked a little lost when the fight was standing. It was only when the fight went to the ground that Nunes was able to gain a significant edge. Since that fight Shevchenko has improved her ground game quite substantially, so I believe she’ll be a much tougher opponent for Nunes this time around.

My only criticisms of Shevchenko is that she is a very slow starter and she is also too accepting of bad positions. This could see her let some rounds slip away. This also means that Shevchenko could be an excellent Live Betting opportunity because she almost always loses the first round no matter who she is fighting…

At almost even money I believe that Shevchenko is a great bet.

Reasons for betting on Valentina Shevchenko to beat Amanda Nunes...

Valentina Shevchenko is a very intelligent fighter. She is strategic and has great fight IQ.

Valentina Shevchenko has significantly better striking than Amanda Nunes. From the very early stages of their first fight she was able to control all the striking exchanges. By the time she managed to get Nunes’ timing locked down, she was picking her off and causing her to throw wild, looping hooks that used up a lot of energy. These wild looping hooks also left her wide open to Shevchenko’s devastating counters.

Valentina Shevchenko is a Southpaw.

Valentina Shevchenko has significantly improved her takedown defense, wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu since her first fight against Amanda Nunes.

Valentina Shevchenko is extremely tough and extremely composed. She never panics when she is put into bad positions.

Valentina Shevchenko is a very efficient and economical fighter. There is no wasted movement in her fighting style. This means that she has excellent cardio.

Valentina does a great job of pacing herself. She starts slow and gets gradually increases her output as the fight goes on. This will be very effective against an opponent like Nunes who tends to gas out and slow down the longer a fight goes on.

Amanda Nunes has very bad cardio.

Risk factors with betting on Valentina Shevchenko to win...

Valentina Shevchenko is a very slow starter. This often means that she loses the first couple of rounds.

Amanda Nunes hits extremely hard. She has legit 1 punch KO power.

Amanda Nunes is a significantly better grappler than Valentina Shevchenko.

Our Betting Tip

Valentina Shevchenko to win

Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.83
Moneyline = -120
Fractional = 83/100

55%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Valentina Shevchenko has a 55% chance of beating Amanda Nunes based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

We believe that Valentina Shevchenko has a 70% chance of beating Amanda Nunes based on our extensive research and analysis.