2011-08-04 15:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day2011-08-04 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2011-08-04 16:00:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super, and you?2011-08-04 16:00:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would like to take a moment to welcome those who are taking advantage of this one day open house2011-08-04 16:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are subscribers...I have decided to have 3 sessions next week to make up the freebie 2011-08-04 16:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the chat will be on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday2011-08-04 16:01:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, nice!2011-08-04 16:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm fine and dandy2011-08-04 16:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who may be new to the format2011-08-04 16:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do here is review the markets activity with more of an angle towards the internals2011-08-04 16:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of what we go over will apply to all trading styles and time periods2011-08-04 16:02:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no recommendations will be made per se2011-08-04 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you will have a pretty good plan to work with at the end of the session2011-08-04 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the session usually takes about 2 hours2011-08-04 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I am your fearless leader 2011-08-04 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: please feel free to ask questions or make comments during the chat2011-08-04 16:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said then2011-08-04 16:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there any questions or comments before we get started??2011-08-04 16:04:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I knew what to short for acceleration relative to the summation zero line-how will I use same to know what to buy for a bounce-when it happens?2011-08-04 16:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in these kind of fast market conditions where emotion takes over that of logic2011-08-04 16:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best play is to work with index issues for the time being2011-08-04 16:05:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before I go further...I took the time to make up an Elliott count to help us in this area 2011-08-04 16:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum11/elliottspx080411.png2011-08-04 16:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only occasionally play with Elliott here in the chat and only when it's appropriate to do so2011-08-04 16:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is one of those times2011-08-04 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who weren't here on Tuesday2011-08-04 16:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our downside price objectives for this decline were 1187 intraday and 1219 on the close for the SPX cash2011-08-04 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today would meet both of those expectations, so what will concentrate on primarily is to see if there are divergences or not to compliment the count shown on the chart2011-08-04 16:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the price objectives2011-08-04 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if wave iii was complete today2011-08-04 16:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should many of the McClellan Oscillators either setting flags or slightly diverging with Wednesday's lows2011-08-04 16:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not by a lot...but even slight will work under current conditions2011-08-04 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth wise today2011-08-04 16:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a rather lopsided day of 138/29712011-08-04 16:09:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about as climactic as one will get in 3rd wave structures2011-08-04 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have met two criteria for a near term bottom2011-08-04 16:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price and breadth plurality2011-08-04 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, there are other considerations as well which will go over in the next couple of hours2011-08-04 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so assuming that we have finished out little 3rd wave here2011-08-04 16:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 4 should be highly erratic in its behavior2011-08-04 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who remember 19872011-08-04 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after the Monday crash2011-08-04 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday was hard up2011-08-04 16:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then Wednesday was hard down2011-08-04 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the expectation here as the market attempts to find its legs2011-08-04 16:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one caveat to this near term expectation2011-08-04 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we have our old friend the unemployment data coming out in the morning2011-08-04 16:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given business conditions in which I'm apart of2011-08-04 16:12:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't expect the numbers to be that great2011-08-04 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is where the big difference comes between trading fundamentally and that of a technician2011-08-04 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case2011-08-04 16:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're as "oversold" as I'm expecting on a trend basis2011-08-04 16:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although any bad news will be met initially by selling as to pile on to what we have already seen2011-08-04 16:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this kind of news is what is needed so that we can get all of the "unwilling" sellers to capitulate 2011-08-04 16:15:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and therefore allow the market to indeed find support and turn the corner to likely close the vacuum that has been created over the last 10 trading days2011-08-04 16:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember here2011-08-04 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we now have all of the breadth McClellan Summation Index charts (MCSUM) all down and through their zero lines2011-08-04 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last to go was the NYSE composite2011-08-04 16:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we talked about on Tuesday2011-08-04 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it moved below its zero line, being the most broadly based indicator, this was going to be our very best chance of a crash like event to occur2011-08-04 16:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what we got today2011-08-04 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that this has passed2011-08-04 16:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our next expectation here is for some stabilization, and probably a multi day pause to refresh2011-08-04 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, would be part of our anticipated iv wave structure per the Elliott chart posted earlier2011-08-04 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the worse of this portion of the decline is just about behind us, if not already2011-08-04 16:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless you're holding short for the long term, today was the day to close any short positions opened since we had our 7/26 sell signal2011-08-04 16:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions or comments?2011-08-04 16:19:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that 3 is massive2011-08-04 16:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2.618 times the length of wave 12011-08-04 16:19:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep2011-08-04 16:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: typical when the market falls off the cliff like it has after an exhaustion move2011-08-04 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are new2011-08-04 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do here is that we use the charts at Decision Point to review the market activity2011-08-04 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who do not subscribe to DP, I will be as descriptive as possible so that you can visualize what we're working with2011-08-04 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's no questions...let me get DP up and we'll get started2011-08-04 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one important thing to note2011-08-04 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I do not look at these charts prior to our chats2011-08-04 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I try to make the experience as fluid as possible2011-08-04 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give you first impressions as to not get a bias or have an opinion before hand2011-08-04 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who have DP2011-08-04 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's switch to the 3 year charts tonight - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/mcosisum_nyc.html2011-08-04 16:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we go2011-08-04 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Common Only NYSE breadth MCO moved lower today2011-08-04 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now at the lowest levels we've seen since the summer bottoms of last year2011-08-04 16:23:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: currently with a -122 reading2011-08-04 16:23:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the good news longer term2011-08-04 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that when the MCO gets as extreme as it is right now2011-08-04 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a very good indication that a major bottom is being created...at least internally2011-08-04 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the intermediate term2011-08-04 16:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we remain above the MCO bottoms created last summer2011-08-04 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside price objective for this entire correction is to challenge these same price lows2011-08-04 16:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the market continues to sell off here2011-08-04 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we move to lower lows than that of last summer in the MCO2011-08-04 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then open the door to retrace ALL of the advance from the 2009 lows2011-08-04 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point, there still isn't enough energy moving in this direction to do this2011-08-04 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this2011-08-04 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term2011-08-04 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are only correcting the excesses of the last two years at this juncture2011-08-04 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are NOT in a resumption of the bear market decline from the 2007/2008 topping period 2011-08-04 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least at this point in time2011-08-04 16:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can change2011-08-04 16:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what you learn with market dynamics 2011-08-04 16:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that prices can only go as far as money will allow it to go2011-08-04 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if breadth of market isn't leading prices in one direction or the other2011-08-04 16:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only work with what is only given by this same money flow analysis2011-08-04 16:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the bottom of the combo chart2011-08-04 16:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: DP shows us the 10% and 5% components that make up the daily number on the MCO2011-08-04 16:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and at this time2011-08-04 16:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component, or the speed in which the 19 day EMA is moving lower in the CO NYSE A/D line2011-08-04 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is at a point in which it's not likely to maintain this same forward motion2011-08-04 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens we get what many refer to as "snapback" or "reflex" action in the internals2011-08-04 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you can only go so far before you either get pulled back toward neutral or break2011-08-04 16:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here the near term expectation is for some sort of technical bounce to relieve this same downside pressure2011-08-04 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM2011-08-04 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are within spitting distance of breaking below the lows of June2011-08-04 16:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when this happens2011-08-04 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually get some kind of turbulence in the market2011-08-04 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as, in this case, buyers start rushing in to try to stabilize the selling2011-08-04 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the bears still have over all control of the short term action of the price structure itself2011-08-04 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're likely to see a volatile chop over the next couple of days as the two sides battle it out2011-08-04 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one side thinking that prices are overdone and at wholesale levels2011-08-04 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other side believes that current values still remain too high given fundamental conditions2011-08-04 16:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also notice 2011-08-04 16:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this same low in June2011-08-04 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was also a test of the August lows of last year that completed that correctional period2011-08-04 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a break of both, but primarily of the August 2010 lows, would then confirm that this same price area will be our current target for this over all declining price structure2011-08-04 16:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the case of the Elliott chart2011-08-04 16:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our probable objective for wave iii was the trading range of last November2011-08-04 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave V's completion of the entire 5 wave structure will likely be the summer lows of last year2011-08-04 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, of course, is powerful information to know 2011-08-04 16:36:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wouldn't that need an extended 5?2011-08-04 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it gives us a high confidence that even after we take a pause here (wave iv)2011-08-04 16:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that ultimately our final target will still remain with the July 2010 lows2011-08-04 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't think so2011-08-04 16:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple 5 will do it2011-08-04 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our extension is the current 3rd wave2011-08-04 16:37:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we don't get two extensions in one sequence2011-08-04 16:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I guess you can on smaller time frames2011-08-04 16:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not likely on the daily2011-08-04 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as a heads up2011-08-04 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely it will tend to unwind like the final move into SPX 666 back in 2009 on the daily chart2011-08-04 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should happen quickly where you may only see 3 structures2011-08-04 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point2011-08-04 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time wise2011-08-04 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expected bottoming period looks like it will happen sometime between mid September and mid November2011-08-04 16:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why this time period always seems to come up in market history as points of important bottoms is anyone's guess2011-08-04 16:40:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's going to take at least a month for the debris to clear from this past weeks decline2011-08-04 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for the market to actually bottom2011-08-04 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO will need to create several layers of what we in the chat room refer to as "texture" before we'll see a foundation strong enough for the bulls to build on2011-08-04 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term2011-08-04 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a purely bar charting basis2011-08-04 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the objective from this bottom is to provide a snapback to or towards the prior horizontal trading range that was broken to the downside over the last couple of days, no less, the 200 day EMA2011-08-04 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the overwhelming weakness of the last week or so2011-08-04 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would only be looking for a move towards this same technical objective than that of meeting it head on2011-08-04 16:43:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as timing of when this snapback may conclude2011-08-04 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: momentum oscillators tend to provide the best insight in that area2011-08-04 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since breadth of market leads the direction of price2011-08-04 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one might want to look at something like the MCO and apply a stochastic to its move in trying to find the best entry point2011-08-04 16:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now2011-08-04 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stochastic is scraping the floor2011-08-04 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...let me take that back2011-08-04 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's actually diverging here2011-08-04 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have access to the MCO2011-08-04 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apply a full stochastic...standard settings2011-08-04 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see the divergence2011-08-04 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to remember that this is the composite breadth MCO, so let's move on to that chart2011-08-04 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Ratio Adjusted NYSE breadth MCO now has a lower low2011-08-04 16:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no divergence there as yet2011-08-04 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it has a reading of -1032011-08-04 16:47:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's about as "oversold" as we get when we're creating a pattern bottom2011-08-04 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only other higher numbers we've seen over the last 3 years2011-08-04 16:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was the "Flash Crash" lows of 20102011-08-04 16:48:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, the lows of 2008/20092011-08-04 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and those were close to all time records2011-08-04 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with one on the back of a "heavy finger" 2011-08-04 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can we go lower?2011-08-04 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, we can2011-08-04 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it probable that we will dig deeper here?2011-08-04 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, the math of the MCO doesn't suggest that we will2011-08-04 16:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we do it, it will take another day like today to do that2011-08-04 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there isn't too many times historically when we've see breadth 29 to 1 one day plurality and then follow it up the next day with the same lopsided figures2011-08-04 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds here are pretty low2011-08-04 16:51:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the 1 on SPX is only 112 points-if your ultimate target is correct-it sure seems like this 3 needs to be deeper2011-08-04 16:51:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we deal with as technical traders...probabilities and their potential outcomes2011-08-04 16:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it can be2011-08-04 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do have the key indicator of the last 2 years coming out tomorrow2011-08-04 16:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no jobs...no spending2011-08-04 16:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no spending...no earnings2011-08-04 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no earnings...and equities are not where money is going to2011-08-04 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds here are good that we are really close to some sort of reflex low2011-08-04 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price objectives have now been met2011-08-04 16:53:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our trending oscillator for money flow, the MCO, is now highly "oversold"2011-08-04 16:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sentiment here is in the dumpster2011-08-04 16:53:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: put it another way2011-08-04 16:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're in a much better position now to find a low than we have been since 7/262011-08-04 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if everyone is feeling scared to step in2011-08-04 16:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the NYSE breadth MCSUM...in fact2011-08-04 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you give me 90 seconds I'll upload the combo chart so everyone can see what I'm seeing here2011-08-04 16:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment2011-08-04 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have questions or comments please feel free to throw on the table2011-08-04 16:56:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/nyad080411.png2011-08-04 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..the first chart is that of the NYAD line2011-08-04 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the top of the chart is the MCO which measures the speed in which two EMA's (the 19 and 39 day) are moving towards or away from each other2011-08-04 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the bottom the chart is the MCSUM which shows us the distance traveled between these same two EMA's based on this same acceleration2011-08-04 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's start with the A/D line itself2011-08-04 16:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the obvious thing we see is that after it moved to new all time highs2011-08-04 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the flow of money suddenly stopped moving into equities2011-08-04 16:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this specific turn was caused by the "unexpected" low unemployment numbers we got last month2011-08-04 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only did the markets turn on a dime2011-08-04 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this sudden shift from moving into stocks, and this surprise created by the data, many island reversals were seen on the daily charts2011-08-04 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls took a moment to find their composure2011-08-04 17:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: found intermediate term trend support at the 39 day EMA (5% Trend)2011-08-04 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounced higher, found no supporters, and then reversed hard to the downside2011-08-04 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why this happened will be explained in a moment2011-08-04 17:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO during this period2011-08-04 17:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see the high amount of money that moved into the market during what many referred to as a breadth thrust2011-08-04 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this all came during the period just prior to the end of QE22011-08-04 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and came to a screeching halt with the jobs numbers2011-08-04 17:04:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point you can see that upside acceleration in the NYAD line stalled as witnessed by the MCO moving sharply lower indicating deceleration in this same direction of money2011-08-04 17:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once all of the willing sellers were out2011-08-04 17:04:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls again attempted to re-initiate their prior wave of capital moving into the market2011-08-04 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we see2011-08-04 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't quite enough backers this time around2011-08-04 17:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we moved down and through the zero line again2011-08-04 17:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then we also took out the lows of the early July decline in the process2011-08-04 17:05:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was at this point in which the prior "thrust" was nullified2011-08-04 17:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it a technical sell signal was issued by the MCO for the first time since the spring of 20102011-08-04 17:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see what happened after that2011-08-04 17:06:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break of trend2011-08-04 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we are deeply "oversold"2011-08-04 17:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turning our attention now to the NYSE breadth MCSUM2011-08-04 17:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the most valuable technical tool in anyone's trading arsenal2011-08-04 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it allows the technician to see both amplitude and the speed in which money is moving in either direction at any given time2011-08-04 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using this information then is highly beneficial in ascertaining how much money should be put to work on any trade made2011-08-04 17:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: long or short2011-08-04 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the two main insights you can see just on a cursory view are2011-08-04 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1) the individual postings of each dot show you how fast money is either moving in or out of the market at any given time since each posting is the cumulative total of each day's MCO reading2011-08-04 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the MCO measures the speed in money is moving, this gives us a simple way of judging the character of a price pattern structure as to its probable longevity2011-08-04 17:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to note here2011-08-04 17:10:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that each total move in the MCSUM2011-08-04 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a representation of how far between two time period EMA's are from each other depending on the directional flow of money as represented by the NYAD line2011-08-04 17:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so each top beneath of top shows us that with each higher high in the NYAD line itself2011-08-04 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was less and less money moving in to support this same structure direction2011-08-04 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now many use this information as a simple divergence technique2011-08-04 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they would be right in doing so as this is a really a simple oscillator2011-08-04 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but knowing that it takes time for waves of liquidity to move towards the shoreline2011-08-04 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each top is only an indication that eventually, and dependent on its starting point, the final push of money to support the price structure is being pushed in this same direction2011-08-04 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (I hope I'm being clear here...if not, ask)2011-08-04 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if you will note2011-08-04 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually and customary on an historical basis2011-08-04 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we only see the MCSUM either above or below its zero line for 2-3 months at a time2011-08-04 17:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prior to the break below the +400 level that we see occur in June and its eventual zero line test2011-08-04 17:15:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this specific MCSUM had been above its zero line since April of 20092011-08-04 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a very long time, yes2011-08-04 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and eventually we're going to need to provide some longer term balance to this overall structure2011-08-04 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely, this is what we're likely to see for the next several months...the NYSE breadth MCSUM being under its zero line2011-08-04 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...back to finish the thought2011-08-04 17:16:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once the bears were able to provide the numbers needed to slow the rate of a ascent in the NYAD line2011-08-04 17:16:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical objective became for a neutral reading2011-08-04 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is2011-08-04 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to have balance between buyers and sellers (the zero line)2011-08-04 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where from there one side can than take control2011-08-04 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the the MCSUM was above its zero line for such a long period of time2011-08-04 17:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first expectation is for the side has been in control ( no matter the time) to at least attempt to re-initiate this same controlling trend2011-08-04 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this indeed occurred with the zero line bounce by the bulls last month and the thrust higher that followed2011-08-04 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without getting into too much technical talk here2011-08-04 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one and only objective for the bulls to move back above the +500 level on the MCSUM in order for this re-initiation of the ongoing trend to actually take place2011-08-04 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you can see on the chart, this didn't happen2011-08-04 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went...tired and exhausted2011-08-04 17:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully now you have a somewhat better idea of why this current decline has been non stop2011-08-04 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you had both a sell signal on the short term trend of money flow2011-08-04 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while at the same time2011-08-04 17:20:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sell came just at a point in which the bulls didn't have the muscle to again keep the price structure from collapsing altogether2011-08-04 17:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went2011-08-04 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we were exhausted2011-08-04 17:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears are now in control with not much of a fight by the bulls2011-08-04 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to accentuate the degree of the decline2011-08-04 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now notice that the NYSE breadth MCSUM just finished moving down and through its zero line2011-08-04 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a reminder2011-08-04 17:22:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the EMA's on the NYAD chart2011-08-04 17:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that as we moved down and through the zero line2011-08-04 17:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 19 day EMA moved down and through the 39 day EMA2011-08-04 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what the MCSUM is really is simple2011-08-04 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it measures the trend of the A/D line on an intermediate term basis2011-08-04 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this trend is measured by the position between a short term EMA (19 day) and an intermediate term EMA (39 day)2011-08-04 17:23:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing else2011-08-04 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you have been trading charts for any length of time and use moving averages2011-08-04 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know how prices act and react with these same kind of moving averages2011-08-04 17:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the advantage of the EMA is that it is more sensitive to change than that of a simple moving average2011-08-04 17:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why those who got the MCO signal to sell on the 26th not only secured a great majority of the decline of the last week2011-08-04 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also were able to make this switch near the top of the trading range itself2011-08-04 17:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in our business...that's what it's all about2011-08-04 17:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no emotion2011-08-04 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guessing2011-08-04 17:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market instructed, and you react accordingly2011-08-04 17:26:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?2011-08-04 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a quick look at the NAAD data for comparisons - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat11/naad080411.png2011-08-04 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here the NASDAQ A/D line was only able to snapback up to its longer term "trend line" - the 1% Trend or the 200 day EMA2011-08-04 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after peaking above this EMA2011-08-04 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news came out about the jobs situation2011-08-04 17:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the island reversal was in2011-08-04 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went2011-08-04 17:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...you might be saying that...well, if it wasn't for the jobs data we wouldn't had reversed2011-08-04 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in a way you would be right2011-08-04 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what we haven't looked at here is volume plurality and its measurement when using the McClellan tools2011-08-04 17:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was our biggest irritant during the June bounce 2011-08-04 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point we had the expectation that volume was reinforcing the thrusts in breadth 2011-08-04 17:30:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike breadth, the intermediate trend of volume plurality remained pretty much below the MCSUM zero line all during the advance2011-08-04 17:31:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without volume (heart) breadth has a hard time holding up a pricing structure2011-08-04 17:31:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when the news came out2011-08-04 17:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't any heart to support the body of the price structure2011-08-04 17:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went2011-08-04 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2011-08-04 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a combination of a lot of things that has led us to this juncture2011-08-04 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the news events only serving to assign a reason why we've lost 11% in less than 10 trading days2011-08-04 17:33:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM2011-08-04 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it never did move above its zero line2011-08-04 17:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was sorely needed so that the NAAD line itself could, in fact, remain above its longer term trend line (200 day EMA)2011-08-04 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how these smaller period EMA's were only able to snapback to each other (the MCSUM zero line)2011-08-04 17:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then just resumed its new direction of moving below this same 1% Trend line2011-08-04 17:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...so far2011-08-04 17:35:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the NAAD line looks to be unraveling at a great pace2011-08-04 17:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: using the MCSUM here as our guide2011-08-04 17:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's currently not as fast as it was when the line broke below its longer term EMA2011-08-04 17:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that the downside momentum of money flow is starting to lessen a bit2011-08-04 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this, in itself, is enough divergence to anticipate some sort of pause in this near term direction of the A/D line itself2011-08-04 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be another reason to look for an exit here2011-08-04 17:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (if your short, that is)2011-08-04 17:37:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...lots of information with these tools2011-08-04 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much go over this stuff every day2011-08-04 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back to DP and quickly look through the rest of the index charts2011-08-04 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO now has a reading of -1102011-08-04 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is still remains above the March 2011 lows2011-08-04 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the March lows of this MCO are taken out2011-08-04 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that the price pattern itself will be able to move below these same comparable lows2011-08-04 17:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the more likely outcome would be for a bounce off these same lows2011-08-04 17:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is at the 2200 level2011-08-04 17:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we closed today at 22072011-08-04 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless more selling comes in quickly2011-08-04 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it continues to accelerate tomorrow2011-08-04 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as "oversold" as we are right now2011-08-04 17:40:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds favor some sort of bounce when all is said and done at the close on Friday2011-08-04 17:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, and again I must stress, that could change in based on what happens in the morning2011-08-04 17:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the odds suggest that we're likely to bounce here2011-08-04 17:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that we have reached our downside price targets on the cash SPX2011-08-04 17:41:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with other MCO's as deeply "oversold" as they are2011-08-04 17:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any bounce here in the NDX will provide the opportunity for the NYA to snapback to or towards this same line of what was once its horizontal support2011-08-04 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: make sense?2011-08-04 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO now has a reading of -1352011-08-04 17:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again, we are grossly "oversold" and due for some sort of reflex to relieve this condition2011-08-04 17:43:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart2011-08-04 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's price objectives of 1187 intraday and 1219 on the close are not only the levels in which we saw pattern support last November2011-08-04 17:44:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also serves as snapback point to what was overhead resistance prior to the flash crash of last April2011-08-04 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: together then, and given the underlying tone of the market mechanics, and we have some really good technical reasons why we're likely to find support near term, with a probable bounce into the early part of next week2011-08-04 17:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the OEX chart pattern as well2011-08-04 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the Dow has about 400 points it can go before reaching these same levels as the SnP's2011-08-04 17:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall key here for this support2011-08-04 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is whether or not we can keep the downside speed of money leaving the market at this maximum or not2011-08-04 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we take out the May lows of last year over the next day or so2011-08-04 17:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned in the beginning2011-08-04 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then open the door for a full retracement of the entire market advance from 20092011-08-04 17:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds though do not suggest this2011-08-04 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it would better odds if we had divergence in the NYAD line prior to this current decline2011-08-04 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't2011-08-04 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and historically speaking2011-08-04 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there has NEVER been a time since 1926 were a bear market has begun without the NYSE A/D line diverging first2011-08-04 17:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, this time could be different2011-08-04 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it's proven otherwise2011-08-04 17:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to go with the data given2011-08-04 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML has now snapped back to its April highs now2011-08-04 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having just broken its key support level of 4202011-08-04 17:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we pretty much have the same situation with the total market index (Wilshire 5000 index)2011-08-04 17:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....2011-08-04 17:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point2011-08-04 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are fairly high that after any near term follow through overnight to today's one day decline2011-08-04 17:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market should find its legs by the afternoon and begin the process of filling the vacuum created by moving too far and too fast2011-08-04 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however2011-08-04 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will only be the first part in trying to create a foundational bottom from which prices can then stabilize2011-08-04 17:54:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: noting the Elliott count2011-08-04 17:54:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after any short term bounce or pause2011-08-04 17:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should have one more move lower that could terminate somewhere around the trading area supported by the markets last summer2011-08-04 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point2011-08-04 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the only ultimate downside price objective given by the McClellan Oscillator2011-08-04 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only if the MCO lows of flash crash are broken where we can then anticipate a possible test of the 2009 lows2011-08-04 17:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the subscribers2011-08-04 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's finish off our usual review and move to the volume oscillators2011-08-04 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are trashed2011-08-04 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should have a rally attempt in the next two trading sessions2011-08-04 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...at any time2011-08-04 17:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the STVO's and VTO's are also highly "oversold"2011-08-04 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a relief point is indicated near term2011-08-04 17:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as soon as tomorrow2011-08-04 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 4.242011-08-04 17:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is our second reading above 4 this week2011-08-04 17:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at 1.332011-08-04 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it difficult to decline too much more from here2011-08-04 17:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact2011-08-04 17:59:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the TRIN's shown on DP are pretty much as extreme as they're going to get2011-08-04 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow2011-08-04 17:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 7.13!!2011-08-04 17:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.092011-08-04 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the NASDAQ has finally moved to "oversold"2011-08-04 18:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check out the 21 and 55 day SMA's on the NASDAQ TRIN2011-08-04 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like they are falling off a cliff2011-08-04 18:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Total Market (which includes the AMEX) TRIN at 5.752011-08-04 18:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.152011-08-04 18:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so "oversold" there as well2011-08-04 18:01:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bottom line is2011-08-04 18:01:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we've had a nice 11% correction2011-08-04 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now at a point in which we've become so "oversold" that a reflex or relief rally should take place2011-08-04 18:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what should happen here is that we should see breadth bounce first2011-08-04 18:02:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then prices later on2011-08-04 18:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we might not see much in the way of fireworks to the upside on Friday2011-08-04 18:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but early next week we're likely to see some follow through as the market attempts to regain its composure2011-08-04 18:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions, comments,..anything else?2011-08-04 18:03:45 [Message] turkey -> Chat: thanks Dave, anything on gold?2011-08-04 18:04:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I don't really care for today's action as a 5 of a 3 wave-I'll behave, but you'll buy before me, LOL2011-08-04 18:04:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was expecting it to close down today...did it?2011-08-04 18:04:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look2011-08-04 18:04:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day2011-08-04 18:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so gold should close lower on Friday2011-08-04 18:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high volume as well2011-08-04 18:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely2011-08-04 18:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold was sold to cover losing positions and margin calls2011-08-04 18:05:37 [Message] turkey -> Chat: that is what I was thinking...it is a general and generals are sold last.2011-08-04 18:05:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the upside objective remains at $18502011-08-04 18:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see it during the day Linda2011-08-04 18:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and welcome...nice to see you!2011-08-04 18:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think silver was up a dollar at the open2011-08-04 18:06:25 [Message] turkey -> Chat: it is nice to be here...great stuff as always.2011-08-04 18:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of a sudden it was back to break even2011-08-04 18:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you could feel people closing positions to go to cash2011-08-04 18:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to cover2011-08-04 18:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend in gold is over extended2011-08-04 18:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bigger problem here near term2011-08-04 18:07:29 [Message] turkey -> Chat: yep really thought so too..makes me also agree with your call for a near term rally, they kill the best last right before the rally. aapl got it too today.2011-08-04 18:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the PM stocks never did confirm the latest highs in gold2011-08-04 18:08:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...all of the leaders should had collapsed today2011-08-04 18:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are usually the last to go2011-08-04 18:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the 7.13 TRIN on the NASDAQ was an indication of that2011-08-04 18:08:38 [Message] turkey -> Chat: so true..2011-08-04 18:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't even remember a TRIN that high on the NASDAQ2011-08-04 18:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked it up on SC2011-08-04 18:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were two higher readings2011-08-04 18:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows in 20082011-08-04 18:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lows in 20022011-08-04 18:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a 36 in early 992011-08-04 18:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the exception of 992011-08-04 18:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we got readings above 7 the market was "hammering" out a bottom2011-08-04 18:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind that it doesn't mean right now2011-08-04 18:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the willing sellers are probably now out2011-08-04 18:11:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take a slope of hope rally2011-08-04 18:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a final purge to get Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charley out of their positions2011-08-04 18:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can start fresh2011-08-04 18:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lastly2011-08-04 18:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who are here because of the invite2011-08-04 18:12:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you think you would like to pursue this area of analysis2011-08-04 18:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will find subscription links on this page above the chat box ( http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm )2011-08-04 18:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's month to month2011-08-04 18:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I have to earn your business each month2011-08-04 18:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you think you would like to kick the tires...I would be honored if you joined us2011-08-04 18:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: otherwise...I hope you found the chat informative2011-08-04 18:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the subs2011-08-04 18:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have 3 days next week2011-08-04 18:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday2011-08-04 18:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?2011-08-04 18:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you missed anything tonight2011-08-04 18:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to make today's transcripts public as well on Friday morning for your added review2011-08-04 18:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I usually get them up before the cash market opens in the morning2011-08-04 18:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else2011-08-04 18:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off2011-08-04 18:15:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend2011-08-04 18:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Tuesday2011-08-04 18:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night2011-08-04 18:15:37 [Message] stockinvestor -> Chat: Thank you for the invite.2011-08-04 18:15:47 [Message] nsppsn -> Chat: you too and thanks !!2011-08-04 18:16:10 [Message] no_mind -> Chat: Thanks so much.2011-08-04 18:17:29 [Message] turkey -> Chat: thanks again Dave and good night!

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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