The Raptors Lose Even If They Win!

"It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

- Tim Chrisholm

The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?

If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?

“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

Great thread. I've stated a few times that the Raptors are stranded in the limbo known as mediocrity.
Not bad enough to improve through the draft, but not good enough to attract top tier talent and improve through free agency.

I do maintain that Bryan Colangelo is a very capable GM and the Raptors would not be any better off with anyone else at the helm.

I have been a supporter of Triano, however I have become more and more disenchanted with his style of coaching. These young guys need to shown the path to success, and I'm just not sure Triano, as good a coach as he is (and he actually is), is capable of communicating the 'winning mentality' to these young guys. They need to hear it from someone who has experienced it.

I think the only way this team improves is through a trade, or if we turn out to be as bad as the critics thought.

I do believe we have an abundance of young talent, cap room, and draft picks, so I think this off-season/trade deadline will really shape the next few years for us.

Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).

“The saving of our world from pending doom will come, not through the complacent adjustment of the conforming majority, but through the creative maladjustment of a nonconforming minority.” - Martin Luther King

I don't think you need to break this team apart because they're doing well. These guys are very young, and if they are ahead of where they should be, then why is that a bad thing? Sure a high draft pick would be nice, but why fix what isn't even broken. Give these young guys a chance to develop into a team together.

Well, if the record counts then he's actually outcoaching Byron Scott and Flip Saunders (by this I mean reaching the young players rather than strict X's and O's).

This is absolutely true, but 'out-coaching' those teams and coaches, doesn't necessarily mean he is getting everything out of these guys that he could be. A young players ability to consistently grow is everybit on the coach as it is on the players. If they are putting in the extra time with the coaching staff, but are not showing significant improvement, then perhaps it is where the guidance is coming from, as opposed to where, or for whom, it was directed.

Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.

Raps need an outright STUD at PG or Wing to ever start dreaming of a championship....they'll never sign someone like chris paul or carmelo, so they have to get it somehow through the draft

Interestingly, they have a pretty decent front court going forward. Bargs/AJ/Davis is a pretty well-rounded group. And they still have more potential room to grow. Obviously you'd love to have a young Shaq or DH (who wouldn't?), but barring that, you cant really do much better than that group.

If you could just hypothetically add a guy like John Wall to this team (again, who wouldn't love to have him) - I would be willing to just let the team grow with the realistic hope of them growing into an elite team. They just need to get that one crazy/sick/superstar player dammmit!

they even have the other wing pieces to put around a stud (derozan, bayless) but not that actual guy himself.

Agreed. But a trade, with some of the pieces we have, is also a possible route to acquire said 'stud'.

"It's great that the Raptors aren't as bad as everyone figured they'd be but now they have to either make themselves that bad or get good enough to matter."

- Tim Chrisholm

The title is not in any way connected to the last win although they lost a few key players in the process. Chrisholm's latest article has made me think about what's been on my mind since the beginning of the season. I call it the "30-win" trap, and it happens to be the impetus for the article.

The team has exhibited the expected "Jekyll and Hyde" syndrome but overall isn't as bad as what most people think. Come to think of it, BC isn't a bad GM in hindsight. Before the flames come out of people's nostrils, allow me to elaborate.

BC has assembled a team that many people would think by now is achieving better than most expectations. As a matter of fact, the Roko Ukic / Carlos Delfino for Amir Johnson / Sonny Weems, Barbosa for Turkoglu & Bayless for Jack trades are some of the reasons for the unexpected play of this team.

Certain NBA pundits predicted the Raptors to challenge the futility record. Bob McCown went as far as saying that the Raps wouldn't win 8 games! I personally thought that they're a 30-35 win team, which led me to the trap theory.

Many teams that finish with this much wins is usually not good enough to make the play-offs (and in the odd chance that they did, they's be blown away to smithereens in the first round). Also, with 30 wins, they're not bad enough to land the top 5 in an otherwise super-thin draft either. So the dilemma begins and it begs three important factors:

1. Is BC (in hindsight) a really good GM for assembling a team that without Bosh is achieving much better than expected? Is he steering the ship in the right direction?

2. Is Triano a better coach than many would give him credit for (with more wins than the Clippers, New Jersey, Washington, Minnesota, Cleveland and Sacramento)? Also, the team ranks 26th in points against (a mild improvement from last year with Bosh).

3. What to do with a roster that could potential win 25 - 30 games? Do we build to make the first round or strip further away to go the bottom (to complicate things, teams that suck all the time like the Clippers and Minnesota are not meeting success despite their access to the # 1 draft pick on almost an annual basis)?

If you have 3 moves to make between now and the end of the season, what would you do?

This really is a good thread, nice work.

There is no doubt Triano is a good coach. They don't let anybody work with Team USA. Also, I think he is a good teacher. Motivating the team and having them prepared night in and night out is what I would like to see. As the team grows, develops, and hopefully enjoys success, maybe JT's coaching style will evolve to reflect that. If it doesn't, then it is time to get a coach who has experienced winning.

The pundits are douchebags who are yes-men. One person comes up with an opinion and no one wants to go against the norm because if they are wrong, at least they are wrong with everyone.

1. Many disagree but whatever. I agree I am content with BC leading the team right now. The next year will be critical to the Raptors success in the near and intermediate future (1-3 years).

2. Triano is a better coach than many give him credit however that is not saying much - especially outside Raptors fans/media i.e. USA.

3. What to do with the roster? Things look pretty good right now with the exception of Calderon's contract. I harp on this all the time but I think it is important.

Agreed. But a trade, with some of the pieces we have, is also a possible route to acquire said 'stud'.

Signing and trading is almost the same thing now. If they cant sign a star it basically means they cant trade for a star.

For example, (regardless if they have the pieces) Raps would probably never be in the melo or cp3 sweepstakes because the players would prefer to go somewhere else. For the Raps to trade for a star, you would need like an ideal situation: where literally no other big market has interest, and the player in question makes such a big stink that he has to get traded immediately, and the Raps have cap space/assests, etc....ie. basically all the stars would have to align for the Raps a huge star in a trade. In any basic "star wants out" scenario, like melo or cp3, the Raps are never in it.

Raps need to draft someone who is legally obligated to play for them hahah

Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

I am starting to look at Bargnani as more of a 4. I know there have been numerous threads about "is he a PF or C" however when you look at BC trying to get Chandler, it is pretty obvious in his mind Bargnani is a PF as well. If you can sandwhich Bargnani with 2 very good defensive players at SF and C, the argument about him playing against smaller/faster 4's can be negated. On the offensive end, if smaller faster 4's are put on him he goes to the post where he can shoot over them and if true C's are on him then he goes to the outside to shoot or put it on the floor.

Move 1:

Get McGee if he is available. He is a younger Tyson Chandler in terms of basketball ability. I am really stuck on this the past couple of days but I think in a new environment, with a coaching staff dedicated to teaching and development, and next to Bargnani the potential for success is to great not to pursue. Here is a pretty unflattering write up of him on the RR equivalent for the Wizards: http://www.truthaboutit.net/2010/12/...o-grow-up.html. As an aside, whether the Wizards keep him or trade him, he needs to get away from Blatche. A front line of Bargnani, McGee, Davis, and Johnson is very promising for the next 5 years.

Washington is rebuilding (that is from Flip Saunders mouth after Arenas trade). After January 20, offer Peja/Evans for Lewis and in a second deal use TPE and a future 2nd round pick to take on McGee. Lewis is extremely expensive, but if Calderon was traded (see move 2) it would not be so bad.

Move 2:

Calderon/Weems/MIA 1st round for Flynn/Brewer (his minutes are decreasing of late)
MIN gets mentor for Rubio and a player who would fit the triangle well for Rambis.
TOR gets cap relief after taking on Lewis.

*EDIT* I should have reserved the right to change my mind.http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMa...radeId=32fyup3
TOR keeps draft pick. NYK get what they reportedly want. MIN gets who they reportedly want. TOR gets another young PG and loses Jose's contract. (Bayless was acquired by NOH for a first round draft pick, I'm sure if needed Flynn or Bayless could be shipped if need be - talented young PG's are highly sought). MIN loses their PG's (Telfair is expiring) setting the stage for Rubio to come over with his Spanish national teammate.

Move 3:

DD/$4.4M of TPE for Mayo.
MEM gets financial relief.
TOR gets an offensive stud now that they hope DD eventually becomes.

DRAFT:
TOR Future SF. Lewis isn't getting any younger and it would be good to have them learning from. Depending on where the Raptors draft they could do T. Jones, Honeycutt, Singleton, P. Jones, Harrison, Veesley.
*EDIT* MIA pick best player available which is hopefully a PG or a SG. A guy like Mccamey, Singleton, or Burks who drops to bottom of the first round.

Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

Fact.
However, I think if we look at most any team that has 'rebuilt' in the last 10-15 years, the successful rebuilding projects (turned themselves into contenders) have basically gotten the FIRST pick, and never looked back. ie. Magic (twice. Shaq and DH), Cleveland (LB), Bulls (DR), San Antonio (TD. Go further back and they've done it twice as well with Robinson), Phili (AI), Nets (KM. They made it to the finals twice after drafting him).
BUT almost just as many have not taken that proverbial 'next step' after making the first pick. ie Bucks (AB), Portland (GO), Clippers (Candyman), Washington (KB), Toronto (AB).

Now obviously teams have been rebuilt with a pick lower No. 1 (See MJ, Kobe, Amare, Vince, Curry,) but I do think your chances of a successful rebuilding project are increased 10x if you get that No.1 pick. But I do NOT think tanking is how you get there. Historically the worst team rarely actually nets the First Pick. So I think if we just stay as bad as we know we can be, we'll be just fine.

I think BC deserves credit for starting the youth movement last off season (with Bosh still in tow) and maintaining flexibility going forward. The team is young and appreciating in player asset value with 14m to spend next season and the massive TPE.

Take away Peja, Sonny and Reggie and replace them with two unknowns for 14m and a likely top 10 draft pick. Have to imagine there will be a significant upgrade at these three roster spots in the off-season or prior to if BC can fleece a desperate team looking to clear cap space or looking to reload with a current player targeted for the off-season (ala Heat). The TPE is the x-factor...could be usless or it could help net these assets.

Aside from Calderon and Barbosa pretty much every significant contributor on the current team should be expected to improve their individual game from now till next season. Some may be nil or marginal and some may be significant but at the very least team cohesiveness should improve as the youth develops.

We will have a young team going forward with the potential to infuse talent over the next couple of seasons which should bode well for future long term success.

Mayo is averaging identical PPG as Derozan is right now, but Derozan is doing it a FAR more efficient clip.
Not sure what everyone is down on DD for...

Mayo appears to be in a big time funk this year. I can only assume a 3rd year player doesn't go from 18ppg and starting all games to coming off the bench and 13.5 without reason. He shoots 38% from 3, can create for himself and others, and is a scoring threat from anywhere on the floor. If OJ can get had for DD, I'd do it because, honestly, I don't see DD potential being that of Mayo - just my opinion and if the Raps keep DD I hope I am more than wrong.

Even if we get a 7th or 8th pick, it's still good enough to make an impact in the draft. See Brandon Jennings, Jure Holiday, Stephen Curry etc. It comes down to your draft record, you are as likely to fuck up a 3rd pick as an 8th pick. And I can argue that you can get comparable talent at either position if you do your homework.

This tank theory is total bullshit, no team does that save for the last 10 games of the season. Maybe.

You cant tell players and coaches not to play hard and try to win...THAT is what is never going to happen for all sorts of reasons

But organizations can decide they're not going to do anything and everything to win most possible games one season. Not only is that possible, it happens all the time.

"rebuilding", "retooling", "building through the draft" - whatever, basically means a team is not going to try and add a bunch of meddling talent or sign an aging vet. They're going to make the young kids play, hopefully its exciting and the fans dont revolt, and once they get a couple of high draft picks maybe things will be different.

Agree the Raps dont have to finish last overall. (Thats another thing you cant really guarantee or try and shoot for). They could like finish 5th last, get a spike in the lottery to like 3rd, etc. There was a link posted (I think in one of the Tom Liston posts) that shows the chances of getting a star at each draft position...obviously it decreases as you go down IIRC after top 3 there was a noticable drop in chances to get a "star".

And absolutely nothing beats a year when you have 1st overall pick, and there is an obvious franchise choice that year (eg. Iverson, James)...damn thats like a shot of heroin in the morning, you know what I mean?