Kurtenbach: Wait Are the 49ers the favorites to win the NFC West in 2018?

By Dieter Kurtenbach, Bay Area News Group

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Forgive me if I’m getting ahead of myself here — we still have free agency, the NFL Draft, a whole summer, and training camps head of us before we start the 2018 NFL season — but right now, at the beginning of March, I can’t help but think that the 49ers are the team to beat in the NFC West.

Yes, I’m talking about the same team that started last season 0-9.

Is it aggressive? Yes. Perhaps it’s overly aggressive. We’ll see.

But look around the division — do you see anyone the 49ers should fear?

The Cardinals currently don’t have a quarterback (unless you count Blaine Gabbert…), and they have a new coach. The 2018 season has "transition year" written all over it. Of course, the quarterback part of that equation could change — and yes, Arizona gets David Johnson back — but, right now, do you really expect that team to contend for the playoffs in 2018? I don’t care how solid that defense is, I don’t trust Drew Stanton, and I don’t think Kirk Cousins is anything close to transcendent.

And yes, the Rams did great things last year, but do you expect that offense to be a juggernaut again in 2018? They’re going to be good, don’t get me wrong — I have a hard time seeing a Sean McVay-led offense or a Wade Phillips-led defense ever being bad — but 30 points per game good? Eleven wins and running-away-with-the-division good? That’s pretty aggressive, too. Todd Gurley can only touch the ball so many times.

No, this Rams team is poised to go back to the mean in 2018 — the NFL always adapts.

(Remember, Jared Goff is the third-best quarterback in the division, and he could be the fourth. McVay’s magic can only go so far.)

Oh, and the Rams are going to lose a top cornerback, Trumaine Johnson, and perhaps their top wide receiver, Sammy Watkins, in free agency this spring and they’re not in a position to replace them on the open market. (They added cornerback Marcus Peters, who is excellent, but Kansas City traded him for a reason. I’m withholding judgment on that for now.)

Yes, L.A. is a formidable opponent, but last year’s 11 wins might be their high point.

Which brings us to the Seahawks. My what an offseason it has been the Pacific Northwest, and I have a feeling the real crazy is still yet to come.

The Seahawks traded Michael Bennett to the Eagles on Wednesday, so Seattle is officially down one impact player on that all-time great defense; there is every indication that Richard Sherman, who injured his Achilles tendon last season, is going to be shown the door, too; they are likely to be without Kam Chancellor or Cliff Avril in 2018; and they could lose wide receiver Paul Richardson as a free agent.

Oh, and the Seahawks still have one of the worst offensive lines in football, no running game, and Earl Thomas, who is so integral to the team’s success, has been planning his exit since the end of last season.

Other than that, though…

(I hope Russell Wilson is well-rested after Spring Training with the Yankees and his new ESPN show — if he thought he was carrying a team before this season, the 2018 season is gearing up to be an even heavier load for the talismanic quarterback.)

So, with all of those big, glaring concerns about the rest of the NFC West out there, doesn’t it make more sense to pick the 49ers?

Now, the 49ers have their own problems — they’re young and their roster is incomplete — but they have a quarterback who proved himself to be transcendent last season and an offensive-minded head coach who mentored McVay. (Which would you rather have, the teacher or the student?)

Let’s not even look forward — though that viewpoint only helps the 49ers’ case. With the roster the 49ers have now, led by Jimmy Garoppolo, it’s hardly outrageous to think that the team can go 8-8 next season. In fact, I think that’s a fair, reasonable expectation for next season, and anything less would be a disappointment — after all, Garoppolo is yet to lose a game as a starter.

But with an offseason to actually learn the nitty-gritty of Kyle Shanahan’s playbook, the further development of the talent that already exists around the quarterback, and a defense that showed signs of positivity early in the year (before the injuries started to pile up), there are more reasons for optimism than pessimism in Santa Clara, and while you don’t want to extrapolate that 5-0 finish too far, it’s hardly outlandish to add a couple more wins to the Niners’ base tally of eight wins.

Which raises the big question: Do you feel comfortable picking anyone else in this division to finish better than 8-8?

I’m not picking the Cardinals to do it, at the moment — they were 25th in points last year with Bruce Arians around.

The Rams could do it, but forgive me if I think they’re going to come back to the pack a bit in 2018 — plus, the 49ers were able to give them a good game when Brian Hoyer was their quarterback (it was Thursday night, but that’s a better case study than the final week of the 2017 regular season.) There are no guarantees there, at all. (But feel free to bet on Goff all you want.)

And the Seahawks, well, they were already teetering on the brink at 9-7 last year, and I think it’s evident that they’re going to be a game worse than they were last season.

The 49ers might already be favorites — just might — and after that declaration, we can start adding talent to the San Francisco roster in free agency.

A top-line wide receiver? The 49ers have the cash for that.

A lockdown corner? The Niners could sign two of those, too. With more than $50 million in space and a quarterback locked up on what will likely be a team-friendly deal long-term, there is perhaps no better-positioned team heading into free agency.

Oh, and they have the No. 9 pick in April’s NFL Draft.

Their top rival is imploding, the Cardinals are in purgatory, and the Rams need to prove that they’re actually an elite team.

These 49ers currently sitting pretty this spring. So forgive me if I’m thinking they might be sitting atop the NFC West next winter.