Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweets that he believes the Carp will set the release fee for Maeda at the maximum $20MM, meaning interested teams will have to pay that amount in order to secure the right to bid for Maeda’s services.

If the release fee is indeed set at $20MM — and that does seem likely, given Maeda’s profile — every team in baseball will have the opportunity to bid that amount. Maeda and his agents will then be free to negotiate with each club that met the release fee, ultimately taking whatever offer is most to the pitcher’s liking. Teams that bid but fail to sign Maeda will have their fee returned, whereas the $20MM bid from the team that ultimately signs Maeda will go to the Carp as compensation for the loss.

Maeda, 28 in April, is widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in Japan. He just wrapped up a season in which he pitched to a 2.09 ERA with 7.6 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 across 206 1/3 innings, marking his sixth consecutive season with an earned run average of 2.60 or better. His excellent 2015 season netted Maeda his second Sawamura Award — Japan’s equivalent to the Cy Young Award. With his relative youth, dominant track record and, of course, lack of draft pick compensation, Maeda immediately becomes one of the more intriguing arms on the free-agent market.

A recent scouting report from Badler (a subscription is required but highly recommended to read many of Badler’s scouting reports on international players), gave a refresher on much of what is already known of Maeda but also revealed that in the recent Premier 12 international tournament, Maeda displayed a vastly improved changeup that looked to be a plus pitch. Badler notes that Maeda’s fastball sits 89-93 and can hit 94 at times, with an above-average slider as his typically favored secondary offering.

As Badler notes, most scouts feel that Maeda is at least a No. 4 starter in the Majors, though the potential is obviously there for him to exceed that label. Recall that many were reluctant to label Masahiro Tanaka an ace in the making when he was posted (although, as Badler points out, Tanaka’s raw stuff is simply more overpowering than Maeda’s arsenal). Nevertheless, the addition of a plus changeup to Maeda’s arsenal would further entice clubs seeking high-end pitching, and if a team believes a fourth starter to be the floor for the right-hander, one can imagine a hefty price tag being placed upon him. Said one scout to Badler: “I didn’t think his slider was very good that day (against Mexico), but his changeup was nasty. He was throwing it to righthanders and lefthanders. To me, that was his best pitch.”

Maeda figures to attract interest from a wide number of clubs — both teams that are aiming to contend in 2016 and possibly some rebuilding/retooling clubs that are eyeing 2017 and beyond. Because he’ll pitch next season at 28, Maeda is younger than most free agent starters and therefore doesn’t necessarily carry the risk that he’ll be in decline by the time a rebuilding or transitional club flips the page to contention.

One team that is known to have strong interest in Maeda is the Diamondbacks. General manager Dave Stewart wasn’t shy whatsoever when asked about the player last winter, candidly stating: “I love Maeda. I love him. We have a lot of video and film and we have people who have seen him. We think that he’s got a chance to be very successful in Major League Baseball. We’re going to try to be in on the market when he does post, if he does post.” Maeda, of course, was not posted last season, but Stewart recently said that the D-backs have maintained their interest. That they’re said to be in search of pitching help that does not require draft pick forfeiture only strengthens the likelihood that they’ll make a push for Maeda, although, as I noted before, many teams will be in the mix. Given the fact that there’s little risk in actually posting the $20MM release fee (which, again, is refunded if a team doesn’t sign Maeda), it’d make sense for half the league (or more) to at least meet the fee just to see the asking price.

We at MLBTR ranked Maeda 14th in terms of earning power on our Top 50 free agent list and estimated a five-year, $60MM contract on top of a $20MM posting fee. While the comfort level of interested teams of course remains to be seen, it should be noted that the bulk of pitchers available on this year’s open market doesn’t seem to have hampered earning power for pitchers thus far in the offseason — even those among the second and third tiers of arms. For instance, Johnny Cueto has reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM offer already, while Jeff Samardzija is said to have offers in the $90-100MM range. And, J.A. Happ has already landed an impressive three-year, $36MM contract. Given that expenditure and the rumored price tags on other arms, it appears (on the surface, at least) that Maeda is well-positioned to secure a substantial contract as he looks to jump to Major League Baseball.

It should also be wondered if, in addition to a sizable guarantee, he’ll be in line for an opt-out clause. Tanaka received such a clause when signing his contract with the Yankees, as did outfielder Yasmany Tomas in signing his six-year contract with the Diamondbacks. An opt-out after two or three years would allow Maeda the opportunity to establish himself in the Majors and re-enter the market with a big league track record, although an opt-out would probably come with a trade-off in terms of total guarantee (Tanaka’s enormous contract notwithstanding).

True, scouting reports are never 100%. I was reading a handful where scouts felt he was undersized and had injury concern. Otherwise, if a team wants a solid pitcher and doesn’t want to pay an arm and leg he could be a good get.

He’s only a number 3 because he’s pitching behind an MVP and 4 Cy Young awards. Not that I use WAR as a benchmark over their last two seasons played respectively Ryu trails Price by 0.7 WAR. Plus Ryu has those calves.

Being an ace in Japan is akin to being an ace in AAA; it basically means zilch as far as being able to tell you what you can expect of the player in MLB. Darvish and Tanaka have been successful here, but they were dominant in Japan on a level beyond Maeda. A lot of very good pitchers in Japan have come over here and been eaten alive.

If it’s any indication, the MLBTR guys predicted 5 years for $60MM plus the $20MM posting fee. The DBacks seem to value Maeda higher than anyone else, at least publicly, so it’s very plausible they end up the highest bidder.

The Dodgers will likely have a say of whether or not he’s going to Arizona. Regardless if they sign Greinke or not, they’re going to need another mid-rotation arm, and this guy fits the bill. Plus with Dave Roberts’s Japanese background, he might want to have some Japanese players on the team. Point is, Arizona may want Maeda, but so may the Dodgers, and the Giants for that matter if they don’t sign Greinke.

I think the Giants said their backups for Greinke are Leake and Samardzija. Those guys will be going later in the offseason (most likely) than Maeda, so I’m not sure if they’ll go after Maeda. I won’t rule out the Dodgers though, they could be a fit.

As a D-Back fan, I hope they stay away honestly. MLBTR has been pretty close so far on their pitcher projections, and if Maeda commands over 80M (including fee), I would pass. From everything I’ve read, he seems to be a 3-4 type. In a loaded FA market, I’d look elsewhere personally.

The 20M fee is a wash since it doesn’t count towards the payroll. Even if you counted it and he got that contract it would be a 5/80 deal so $18M/season for a “3/4”. In an age when JA Happ gets $12M/season and he’s a 5……

No chance. Of course you’re allowed to like the hottest girl in the school and buy her all the cars she wants, but at the end of the day only the desperate girls settle for a chump team like the dbags. Cueto rejected and I don’t see Maeda hopping on the snaketrain to shitville.

Boston is largely done spending this offseason… I can see them trading off a starting pitcher like Miley for a B-prospect or two, adding one of two more 6th-7th inning relievers, or making a deal for Panda/Hanley if someone is dumb enough to offer one.

They could still benefit greatly by getting a #2 starter. Not saying Maeda is necessarily going to be that good, but I could see the Red Sox being interested at the 5/60MM plus posting free projection. They could trade Miley and Maeda wouldn’t cost a whole lot more (the posting fee means nothing to big market teams) and comes with more upside. Having said that, I don’t think the Red Sox are the greatest fit, though Maeda has said he would love to be apart of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. I expect the D’backs being all over him based on previous interest and I could see the Dodgers/Giants too depending on what happens with Greinke.

The *last* thing BOS needs is another back of the rotation pitcher. I know they moved Miley (and got back MUCH more than I expected), but that doesn’t fix their issues. Hanley is who they need to focus on now.

I mean, say Price or Buchholtz(what? never) gets injured. The Sox would be relying on E-Rod, Kelly, Owens, and Porcello. They all have huge questions that Miley, the best workhorse in baseball right now, does not have.

Trading Wade is a bad idea when you have three pitchers that have never broke 150 big league innings and Rick Porcello as backups. Even with Maeda, he’s a crapshoot as well. Though one I think would pay off.

I wouldn’t go spouting off that Miley is the best workhorse in baseball… I think that honor might go to his new teammate David Price.
The fact is, the Red Sox currently have 3 lefties penciled in for the starting rotation, with two of the next three pitchers off the depth chart (Owens and Johnson — Kelly being the one righty) being lefties as well. For that reason, Miley is the most expendable. Not to mention that Kelly has serious potential as a reliever, Porcello’s contract is untradeable, E-Rod has a huge ceiling, and Buchholz is the surest thing after Price. Process of elimination.

I think it would be nice. But this time, I really do think the Rangers mean it when they say they’re not going to make a big splash. Besides…save money to re-sign Darvish and get Otani when he gets posted. Rangers almost had him fresh out of Japanese High School, but he got drafted.

Just watched some video of this guy; he reminds me of Hideo Nomo (particularly his delivery). He looks like a capable major league starter, but I don’t think he’s in the class of Darvish-Tanaka. Given the 20M posting fee, I’ll guess he gets 5 years and 55M.

A truly TRULY tremendous blow for Hiroshima if ever Maeda makes it into the Major leagues… With Kuroda leaning towards retirement (unless he finds something that motivates him to stay for at least one more year…), that team will definitely be in trouble next season and for other years to come…

Hiroshima may get the 20 million USD posting bid from MLB teams, but losing a star pitcher and fan-favorite like Maeda is definitely a hard pill to swallow… (It looks like Kris Johnson will be the team’s ace for the Carp next season…)

I think he’s a perfect fit in NY. He’ll like to have a guy like Tanaka around and the possibility of the Yanks getting a 2 or 3, for 14-16 per year is a no brainer and right up the Yankees alley. I see NY being a heavy player in these negotiations.