DUNEDIN — Recency bias is a newfangled term for an ages-old human affliction: The tendency to believe that future events have some correlation to the recent past.

In truth, it’s no different than basing tomorrow’s weather forecast on yesterday’s weather, or predicting that next coin flip will come up heads because it has come up heads three times in a row.

Which brings us to baseball pitchers in general and, specifically, Drew Hutchison.

A year ago at this time, baseball’s cognoscenti was nodding its head in agreement that Hutchison was to be a key man, perhaps even the No. 1 starter, in the Blue Jays’ 2015 rotation. A full 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Hutchison came to camp prepared to fulfil the promise that had been projected ever since he signed as a high-school senior in 2009.

This spring, after a head-scratchingly inconsistent performance in 2015, expectations for Hutchison have plummeted. When he is discussed, it’s as a candidate, among many, as the fifth starter.

So, where did all the enthusiasm go? Well much of it disappeared down the drain of recency bias. Twice last season, Hutchison was bounced from the rotation. Despite his 5.57 ERA he did win 13 of 18 decisions, and the team won 18 of his 28 starts, largely because his teammates averaged 6.9 runs per 27 outs when he was on the mound. At times, he pitched brilliantly and at others he seemed to have a practised ability to make the wrong pitch at the wrong time. As confounding as anything were his home/road splits.

At home, he was 11-2 with a 2.91 ERA. On the road, he was 2-3, with a 9.83 ERA. In nine of his 28 starts, he failed to pitch five full innings.

As much as the fans, the coaches and the front office were frustrated by all the inconsistency, it was a drop in the bucket compared to how badly it was eating at Hutchison himself. He is a seething cauldron of competitiveness and to not deliver for his teammates was the worst feeling in the world.

“Those things don’t just go away,” said Hutchison on Thursday after a long, physically demanding workout in the Blue Jays weight room.

“I’m not going to be naive and say I’m just going to move on. But it can go in one of two ways. You can let it get in the way of going forward or you use it, get better from it, and move on.

“For me, I try not to listen to outside noise. There are a lot of perceptions out there but, for me, they’re out of my control. For me, it’s all about getting back in control of the things that I can do to be successful. I will continue to be the same person.”

Over the course of a season that produced some of the most exciting baseball Toronto has seen in more than two decades, Hutchison went from being the team’s opening-day starter (a six-inning, three-hit win over the Yankees at Yankee Stadium) to being a non-factor down the stretch, excluded from the playoff roster.

“Obviously, it was disappointing. That speaks for itself. It wasn’t where I wanted to be or expected to be. I’m glad to be back here and ready to go.”

An indication that Hutchison’s disappointing 2015 may well have been an outlier could be gleaned from the sabermetrics stat BABIP, which stands for batting average on balls in play. Among other things, it’s a stat that indicates how much good or bad luck a player or pitcher has. BABIP in the big leagues averages about .300. A BABIP higher than that for a pitcher indicates a greater chance of bad luck being a factor. A BABIP lower than .300 is a sign of good luck. Prior to 2015, Hutchison’s career BABIP had been .294. In 2015, it was nearly 50 points higher at .343, indicating bad luck.

“Obviously, there were times I was very good last year,” he said. “But overall I was not where I need to be. I have, of course, looked back at things and done that review and I feel good about where I am right now and ready to get started.

“There are things you always look at. I’m not going to get into a lot of detail about mechanics. But we’re always critiquing ourselves. But overall, it was disappointing and I’m ready to put it behind me.”

Hutchison attacked his training routine this winter in much the same fashion he does every winter. He has added some upper-body muscle and has been throwing his usual diet of bullpen sessions in advance of spring training.

“I’ve always taken pride in what I do in the off-season to try to prepare myself,” he said. “I feel like I’m in a good spot, gaining some weight and naturally getting a bit stronger. Of course, this is spring training where everybody says they’re in the best shape of their lives and everybody is perfectly healthy. We all know how that goes but I do feel like I’m well-prepared and ready to get started.”

Now, with the first workouts of spring training looming on Monday, he will have a chance to start setting the record straight and, at the same time, start chewing away at that mountain of recency bias.

GETTING THE JUMP

Blue Jays training camp may not yet be officially open, but it is already buzzing with activity.

The bulk of the 32 pitchers and six catchers who are obliged to report on Sunday prior to Monday’s first official workout are already in camp, along with a sprinkling of position players, such as Ryan Goins, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders and Dalton Pompey.

Many of the players have been working out together in Dunedin since the last two weeks of January.

Position players join the camp officially on Feb. 25. The Grapefruit League season gets under way on March 1 against the Phillies.

Jays' Hutchison ready to move on from 2015 season

DUNEDIN — Recency bias is a newfangled term for an ages-old human affliction: The tendency to believe that future events have some correlation to the recent past.

In truth, it’s no different than basing tomorrow’s weather forecast on yesterday’s weather, or predicting that next coin flip will come up heads because it has come up heads three times in a row.

Which brings us to baseball pitchers in general and, specifically, Drew Hutchison.

A year ago at this time, baseball’s cognoscenti was nodding its head in agreement that Hutchison was to be a key man, perhaps even the No. 1 starter, in the Blue Jays’ 2015 rotation. A full 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery, Hutchison came to camp prepared to fulfil the promise that had been projected ever since he signed as a high-school senior in 2009.

This spring, after a head-scratchingly inconsistent performance in 2015, expectations for Hutchison have plummeted.