20 Second Timeout is the place to find the best analysis and commentary about the NBA.

Friday, October 05, 2018

2018-19 Eastern Conference Preview

The balance of power in the Eastern Conference shifted seismically
when LeBron James left the Cleveland Cavaliers to join the L.A. Lakers.
James' run of eight straight NBA Finals appearances (Miami 2011-2014;
Cleveland 2015-18) will almost certainly end as a result of that move.
Regardless of the relative weakness of the Eastern Conference during
this era, James' accomplishment is still noteworthy. The only other
player in NBA history to lead his team to at least eight straight NBA
Finals is Bill Russell, whose Celtics reached the NBA Finals from
1957-66.

Michael Jordan is often depicted as the
ultimate basketball champion
but his six titles are barely half of the total that Russell
accumulated:
11 championships (and 12 Finals appearances) in 13 seasons. The Celtics'
roster completely changed around Russell during that era, with Tommy
Heinsohn being the only other Celtic player who joined Russell on each
of those 10 NBA Finalists from 1957-66.

As a
winner/champion, James (whose teams have gone 3-5 in the NBA Finals) is
not even in the same conversation with Jordan, let alone Russell. James
was justly criticized for taking the easy way out in 2010 when he left a
Cleveland team that had just won 61 regular season games (after winning
66 games the year before) to create a super-team in Miami. This time,
James is leaving a perennial contender to seek his fortune with a
traditional NBA power that has been awful since the decline and
retirement of Kobe Bryant. James is not taking the easy way from a
basketball standpoint but it also is not clear that winning a
championship is his top priority; he may very well have gone Hollywood
both literally and figuratively.

The Boston Celtics are
well-positioned to be contenders for the next several years. They are
essentially adding two All-Stars to a rotation that advanced to the
Eastern Conference Finals last season; due to injuries, neither Kyrie
Irving nor Gordon Hayward played a single minute in the 2018 postseason
but both are expected to be fully healthy for the start of the 2018-19
campaign.

The Toronto Raptors added MVP-level player Kawhi
Leonard to a roster that finished with the best regular season record
in the Eastern Conference last season but they gave up perennial
All-Star DeMar Derozan to get Leonard. The Raptors also fired 2018 NBA
Coach of the Year Dwane Casey. The potential upside for the Raptors is
very high but those big moves could also backfire.

Listed below are the eight teams that I expect to qualify for the Eastern
Conference playoffs, ranked based on their likelihood of advancing to the NBA
Finals:

1) Boston Celtics: Prior to last season, I wrote,
"I think that the Celtics are a year away from winning the East. Their
nucleus needs some time to grow together and, of course, if James
departs
Cleveland next summer then the conference will almost certainly be there
for
Boston to take starting in 2018-19." James left, Boston's young nucleus
blended nicely last season and this season the team is hoping/expecting
to see the fully healthy return to action of All-Stars Kyrie Irving and
Gordon Hayward, so there is every reason to consider the Celtics the
favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the 2019 NBA Finals. The
two main potential obstacles for Boston are (1) injuries to key players
(always a concern regarding Irving) and (2) Kawhi Leonard's reemergence
as an MVP-caliber two-way player. If Leonard regains his old form, then
the Toronto Raptors will have a great opportunity to challenge the
Celtics. The rest of the Eastern teams lack the talent, depth and/or
coaching to beat the Celtics in a seven game series.

2) Toronto Raptors:Other
than James going to Los Angeles, the biggest offseason story in the NBA
was the complete breakdown of the relationship between Kawhi Leonard
and the San Antonio Spurs, a team that has been considered the model
franchise in the league--if not all of professional sports--for the
better part of the past 20 years. We may never find out what happened
behind the scenes but we know the end result: Leonard is now a Raptor
and DeMar DeRozan is now a Spur. How healthy and motivated is Leonard?
How committed is Leonard to staying in Toronto as opposed to angling to
land somewhere that he may consider to be more desirable? No one knows
the answers to those questions except for Leonard, and he may not even
know until he plays out this season.

The Raptors
finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference last season but
suffered a humiliating 4-0 sweep at the hands of Cleveland in the second
round. That loss looks even worse when considered in the context of
Cleveland sleepwalking through the regular season and then needing seven
games to put away the Indiana Pacers in the first round. Dwane Casey
won the Coach of the Year award and still got fired. The Raptors
promoted assistant Nick Nurse--who has no NBA head coaching
experience--and that is an odd-looking move; if you are going to fire
the Coach of the Year because of being swept in the playoffs, one might
assume that you would go in a completely different direction as opposed
to turning to a less-experienced person who presumably shares Casey's
basic coaching philosophies. Leonard's physical health and state of
mind, plus Nurse's inexperience, are the biggest questions about the
Raptors. The ceiling for this team is to win the East and possibly even
test the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals (the last time we saw a
fully healthy Leonard, he was dominating the Warriors in game one of
the 2017 Western Conference Finals); however, if Leonard struggles and
Nurse is not who team President Masai Ujiri thinks he is, then the
Raptors could fall from contender status to first round fodder.

3) Indiana Pacers:
The Pacers were one of the most surprising stories of last season. The
Pacers did not look like a playoff team on paper after dealing franchise
player Paul George to Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo and Domantas
Sabonis but Oladipo won the 2018 Most Improved Player Award while
averaging a career-high 23.1 ppg and leading the Pacers to a 48-34
record.

The Pacers pushed the eventual Eastern
Conference Champion Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first
round of the playoffs and even though the Pacers' rise was unexpected it
does not appear to be a fluke. I expect the Pacers to crack the 50 win
barrier this season.

4) Philadelphia 76ers:The
76ers finished third in the Eastern Conference with a 52-30 record and
then beat Miami 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs before losing 4-1
to Boston in the second round. The 76ers started the season 36-30
before finishing with a 16 game winning streak--but that streak was
deceptive because at least six of those victories came against teams
that were actively tanking. In the playoffs, Boston exposed
Philadelphia's weaknesses and I expect the 76ers to regress to the mean,
finishing with between 48-50 wins to place them just behind the Pacers.
The injury-prone Joel Embiid operated under playing time restrictions
last season, limiting him to 30.3 mpg in 63 games. I am skeptical that
he will ever be able to handle the workload that is customary for an
All-Star caliber player and those limitations are part of the reason
that I do not believe that the 76ers will do any better this season than
they did last season.

5) Milwaukee Bucks:
Giannis Antetokounmpo made the All-NBA Second Team for the second year
in a row after setting career-highs in scoring (26.9 ppg), rebounding
(10.0 rpg) and field goal percentage (.529) while also averaging 4.8
apg. He was exceptional in the playoffs (25.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 6.3 apg,
.570 FG%) as the Bucks extended the Celtics to seven games before
falling 112-96 in the clinching contest. The organization has
experienced a lot of instability and has made some puzzling personnel
decisions but Antetokounmpo's all-around greatness masks many of the
team's flaws and issues. In order to become a top four team in the
Eastern Conference, the Bucks must improve their rebounding (they ranked
30th out of 30 teams in the league in that department) and their
defense (the Bucks ranked 20th in defensive field goal percentage).
Defense and rebounding are like tackling and blocking in football: they
may not seem glamorous or grab headlines but it is very difficult to be a
great team without at least being competent in those areas.

6) Washington Wizards:
In the past five seasons, the Wizards have won between 41 and 49 games,
advancing to the second round three times and missing the playoffs only
once. All-Stars John Wall and Bradley Beal form one of the league's
best backcourts and the rest of the rotation is solid but for whatever
reason this team has not been able to take the next step in terms of
winning 50-plus games and contending for conference supremacy.

The
Wizards acquired Dwight Howard to anchor the frontcourt. Howard's game
and reputation have declined in recent years but he is still a
productive player (16.6 ppg, 12.5 rpg, 1.6 bpg, .555 FG% in 81 games for
Charlotte last season).

The upside for this team is
very high: if Wall stays healthy, if Howard remains productive and if
the overall chemistry works then the Wizards could be a 55 win team and a
serious postseason threat. On the other hand, it seems more likely that
injuries and/or chemistry issues will relegate this team to roughly 45
wins and a first round exit.

7) Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have made the playoffs just
once in the past nine seasons but that should change with the hiring of
2018 Coach of the Year Dwane Casey plus a full season of Blake Griffin
in the fold. The Pistons won four in a row after Griffin first appeared
in the lineup but then reverted to their losing ways down the stretch.
Supposedly the pairing of Griffin with Andre Drummond cannot work in the
"modern," analytics-driven "pace and space" NBA. No one is suggesting
that this team is a serious contender but Griffin and DeAndre Jordan
coexisted well with the L.A. Clippers and Coach Casey will find a way
for his two big men to be effective. Drummond averaged 15.0 ppg and
captured his second rebounding title in three years; his 16.0 rpg mark
is the NBA's best rebounding average since Dennis Rodman's 16.1 rpg in
1996-97.

The health of point guard Reggie Jackson
is critical; the Pistons looked like a playoff team early in the season
when Jackson was rolling and posted a 27-18 record with him in the
lineup but Detroit limped to a 12-25 record in the games that Jackson
missed.

8) Miami Heat: The Heat went 11-30 in the first half of the
2016-17 season before going 30-11 in the second half. Last season, the
Heat followed a less volatile path to a 44-38 record, going 24-17 in the
first half of the season and then 20-21 down the stretch. It is
becoming evident that both 41 game snapshots of the Heat from two years
ago were aberrations. This is not an awful team, nor is it a contending
team--but the Heat do have the highest payroll in the NBA in 2018-19, so
it does not seem that Pat Riley has spent wisely. Goran Dragic is a
solid player but he is not elite and he does not figure to improve as he
moves deeper into his 30s. Hassan Whiteside is the team's most talented
and physically gifted player but he took a step back last season,
partially due to injuries and partially due to mindset. If Whiteside can
head back in the direction of becoming an elite big man then maybe the
Heat can move past the eighth seed but whether or not that happens this
team looks like first round fodder for one of the conference's top dogs.

As for the rest of the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers
will likely be better than many people expect; unlike the last time that
LeBron James left, it does not appear that the Cavaliers are going into
tank mode, and a team that has Kevin Love as its centerpiece surrounded
by a decent supporting cast should be able to muster up 35-40 wins. I
even give Cleveland an outside chance to grab the eighth seed if
everything breaks right and if one of the teams listed above suffers
chemistry issues and/or injuries.

The Brooklyn Nets showed signs of improvement but not enough signs to jump to playoff contention.

The
Charlotte Hornets seem to have peaked after making the playoffs in two
of the first three years that Steve Clifford coached the team. After
missing the playoffs two seasons in a row the franchise hired James
Borrego to replace Clifford. The much-maligned Dwight Howard played well
for the Hornets last season and they will miss his presence in the
paint.

The Chicago Bulls hope that the addition of
Jabari Parker will be enough to lift the team into playoff contention
but that is asking a lot of an injury prone player who is allergic to
defense and is not as great of an offensive player as he seems to think
that he is.

Kristaps Porzingis is still recovering from
his ACL tear and the New York Knicks did not add any talent to the
roster that went 29-53 last season, so the team will probably finish
with a similar record this season.

5 Comments:

" Hassan Whiteside is the team's most talented and physically gifted player but he took a step back last season, partially due to injuries and partially due to mindset. "

Perhaps we are quibbling over semantics here, but while Whiteside is incredibly gifted physically I would not describe him as "talented." He is large and athletic and precious little else. His skillset (outside of rebounding, where he excels) is extremely limited, he does not have a natural understanding of the game in any real way, and his decision making is extremely poor. Even his shot-blocking is more of the Serge Ibaka "if I try to block every shot I'll inevitably catch a few of them" school than the Olajuwon "block the shots I can block, don't bite on fakes, and have the wisdom to know the difference" school.

He is also not nearly the pick-setter or roll man you'd expect him to be given his physical gifts, though he does have good alley-oop chemistry with Dwyane Wade (and, oddly on a team with so many good passers, kind of only Dwyane Wade).

Physically, Whiteside is the Heat's most gifted player. But in terms of talent I'm not sure he's in their top 5.

It is also worth noting that the Heat are likely to trade Dragic (and Whiteside, if they can find a sucker) before or during the season, in which case they'll almost certainly drop from playoff contention.

I remember an interview during which Harry Gallatin described the ability to work hard consistently as a "talent." I think that "talent" is somewhat subjective. I would submit that being large and athletic is a talent. How many people are as large and athletic as Whiteside? Granted, he is no Olajuwon but Whiteside has value as a rebounder, shot blocker and high percentage scorer in the paint. Those are all valuable talents. I agree that Whiteside could improve in the areas that you mentioned.

Pat Riley does not have a history of tanking, so if he trades Dragic and Whiteside I would expect for him to get enough in return that the Heat will still be in the playoff picture.

I agree that Riley does not like tanking, but I disagree that they will remain playoff contenders for a haul built around either Whiteside and/or Dragic unless they also offload some of their valuable young pieces (namely Josh Richardson and Bam Adebayo) which I do not anticipating them doing.

Whiteside's value is badly damaged by his attitude, theatrics, and injury history; he is now a known malcontent who does not play up to his contract.

Dragic is the Heat's best player and the engine that runs their offense, but he is a point guard on the wrong side of 30; the kind of teams likely to trade for him are contenders looking to add a piece that can help them in the playoffs, and those sort of teams are much more likely to offer draft picks and cap relief than they are contributing players.

I suppose if they traded Whiteside but not Dragic they might actually improve as due to addiction-by-subtraction as because of whatever they get for him, but my suspicion is that it will be difficult to move Whiteside without giving up either Dragic or enough of the team's younger talent that it will significantly diminish their playoff hopes.

Quibbling over the definition of "talent" it is probably a semantic argument but I struggle to imagine a definition under which Whiteside is more "talented" than Dragic, Waiters, or Wade (and perhaps even Richardson) that is based around anything other than sheer physical size and strength... and even then I'm not sure many GMs in the league would take him over any of those players.

You may be right about what would happen if the Heat trade Dragic and/or Whiteside but all I can do in my previews is make predictions based on rosters as currently constructed.

Whether or not GMs would take Whiteside over the players you mentioned is a question not only of talent but also—in no particular order—age, contract status, roster composition, attitude and other factors. A mobile, strong and athletic big man posseses rare talent.

About Me

"A work of art contains its verification in itself: artificial, strained concepts do not withstand the test of being turned into images; they fall to pieces, turn out to be sickly and pale, convince no one. Works which draw on truth and present it to us in live and concentrated form grip us, compellingly involve us, and no one ever, not even ages hence, will come forth to refute them."--Alexander Solzhenitsyn (Nobel Lecture)

"The most 'popular,' the most 'successful' writers among us (for a brief period, at least) are, 99 times out of a hundred, persons of mere effrontery--in a word, busy-bodies, toadies, quacks."--Edgar Allan Poe

"In chess what counts is what you know, not whom you know. It's the way life is supposed to be, democratic and just."--Grandmaster Larry Evans

"It's not nuclear physics. You always remember that. But if you write about sports long enough, you're constantly coming back to the point that something buoys people; something makes you feel better for having been there. Something of value is at work there...Something is hallowed here. I think that something is excellence."--Tom Callahan