Jetcraft predicts upward trend for business jets over 10 years

Reuters Staff

3 Min Read

(Reuters) - Pre-owned aircraft broker Jetcraft on Wednesday forecast an increase in business jet deliveries over the next 10 years, as corporate America spends more money and the rich get wealthier and open their wallets, especially in Asia.

Jetcraft forecast deliveries of 8,349 aircraft worth about $252 billion based on 2017 prices, with North America having the greatest market share at 62 percent. Europe and Asia follow with 17 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

Jetcraft predicts demand will keep moving towards widebody jets at the expense of narrowbodied ones, with the large jet category constituting 31 percent of the total unit delivery forecast, and accounting for more than 63 percent of revenue.

Jetcraft’s forecast comes as business jet shipments have struggled to recover after the financial crisis, having been cut in half from their peak of 1,317 in 2008 to 661 in 2016, according to General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

Business jet deliveries fell in 2016, as billionaires in key markets like China, Brazil and Russia tightened their purse strings as economies faltered, companies slashed budgets and oil tycoons retrenched with record low oil prices.

“Our forecast indicates we are finally exiting the post-2008 recession period, entering several years of steadier, healthier growth and expanding revenues. This new business cycle should shape our industry for years to come,” Jetcraft’s Chairman Jahid Fazal-Karim said.

Canada’s Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO) will be the world’s leading business jet maker by revenue over the next 10 years, with a revenue share of about 29.2 percent of the $252 billion predicted, followed by General Dynamics Corp (GD.N) at 27.8 percent and France’s Dassault Aviation SA (AVMD.PA) at 15.2 percent, Jetcraft said.

In terms of unit sales, Textron Inc’s (TXT.N) Cessna aircraft will hold the top spot - cornering about 27.3 percent of the 8,349 business jet deliveries by year 2026, followed by Bombardier at 20.9 percent and Brazil’s Embraer SA (EMBR3.SA) at 17.2 percent.