The Colorado Avalanche are 15-5-0

Wild had that great start thanks mainly to their goaltending and the trap defense system. They had no offensive depth as they still don't. That is much easier to get away from, once your goalie starts to struggle and that defensive trap stop working and you don't have offensive depth to pull you out of the struggles.

So many things wrong with that post

1) The Wild havn't employed a trap strategy in ages since Lemaire left. They didn't during their great start and they're not any more.

2) They still don't have offensive depth? When did you last look at their lineup? It's no mistake that they're the second team in the league in shots for%, only trailing the current Stanley Cup champions.

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

1) The Wild havn't employed a trap strategy in ages since Lemaire left. They didn't during their great start and they're not any more.

2) They still don't have offensive depth? When did you last look at their lineup? It's no mistake that they're the second team in the league in shots for%, only trailing the current Stanley Cup champions.

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

To start 2011-2012, the Minnesota Wild went 21-8-4. It was a surprise to people because they finished 21st in the league with a -27 goal differential the year before, but hey, they were #1 in the league in early December.

Fans and media personalities talked about willpower to win, how good teams find ways to win, how hard and smart the players were working, how the new system was being adopted.

At that point in time, despite a 21-8-4 record, they were 29th in the NHL in shot differential. They were regularly getting destroyed in puck possession, scoring chances, shots on goal, shot attempts... Pretty much any metric of measuring success other than wins/losses.

What happened? The bottom fell out from under them. Their goaltending stopped playing beyond Vezina-winners performance levels, they stopped scoring "timely" goals, and ultimately their goal differential started to mirror their shot differential. From December 9th on, the Wild went 19-27-4 and missed the playoffs by 11 points.

As of right now, Colorado is 26th in shot attempt ratio and 23rd in shots for/against.

They're significantly better than the '11-'12 Wild were but they're still going to crash hard.

You seem to have not included the scoring chance numbers...

What are they?

And also, you mentioned that Minnesota was getting regularly destroyed in all game metrics. Have you done this same exercise for Colorado games? How often are they being "destroyed?" At which points of the game are they being outplayed? Are they outplaying teams when score is close? Are they being outplayed when the score is not close?

Seems like you've done absolutely no work in regards to coming to your conclusion.

1) The Wild havn't employed a trap strategy in ages since Lemaire left. They didn't during their great start and they're not any more.

2) They still don't have offensive depth? When did you last look at their lineup? It's no mistake that they're the second team in the league in shots for%, only trailing the current Stanley Cup champions.

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

I'm not debating whether Avs will keep up the pace or not, they might or may not as no one knows.

Talk about Wild's offense in recent years, every time I watched their games they only had one line which is their top line that scored pretty much all their goals.

This year they might have little bit more depth up front but hardly enough to do anything in the playoffs if they make the playoffs of course which they should.

1) The Wild havn't employed a trap strategy in ages since Lemaire left. They didn't during their great start and they're not any more.

2) They still don't have offensive depth? When did you last look at their lineup? It's no mistake that they're the second team in the league in shots for%, only trailing the current Stanley Cup champions.

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

Only thing I disagree with is your prediction. I think that the Avs will finish ahead of one of the Blackhawks/Blues, and will definitely finish ahead of Minnesota, Dallas, Winnipeg, and Nashville. I have them 2nd in the division come playoff time, barring any significant injuries

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

I really don't believe they're getting "unsustainable goaltending" at this point. Varlamov is 2.00, .935 sv% which is very good, but it's not record breaking. I see him being maybe 2.15 and .930~ for the year.

Giguere obviously won't stay where he's at, but the Avs don't need him to be 1.00 and .970 for the year, even if he drops to 2.50 and .915 for the rest of the year, the Avs will win most of those games.

Regardless of what you think. Varlamov is probably a top 5 goaltender now, his numbers ARE sustainable.

It's just refreshing, as an Avs fan, to watch the team come out and act like they care. For years we have seen lazy play, heads hanging after going down by one goal, etc...

With Roy seeming to have a great system in place now, a few possible legit d-men developing in our minor league system, and Duchene, Landeskog, Mackinnon, and Johnson taking great strides in their games, it feels like we are 2-3 years away from being a cup contender.

The only big question mark right now seems to be Varlamov and how his legal situation plays out.

Talk about Wild's offense in recent years, every time I watched their games they only had one line which is their top line that scored pretty much all their goals.

This year they might have little bit more depth up front but hardly enough to do anything in the playoffs if they make the playoffs of course which they should.

They are IMO are still very much a defensive minded team.

The previous years yeah, the depth hasn't been there, but I suggest you take a look at this years team, they're playing quite interesting hockey.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dahrougem2

Only thing I disagree with is your prediction. I think that the Avs will finish ahead of one of the Blackhawks/Blues, and will definitely finish ahead of Minnesota, Dallas, Winnipeg, and Nashville. I have them 2nd in the division come playoff time, barring any significant injuries

The Central is a toss up this year. Hawks, Blues, Wild and Avalanche all have seemingly good teams and the differences within the top-4 of the division will be marginal. Any one of them can take it, but I'd imagine both Chicago and Blues at least edging out the Wild and Avs. But who knows.

Plus there's Dallas and Nashville to consider, Winnipeg will seemingly have a down year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheStranger

I really don't believe they're getting "unsustainable goaltending" at this point. Varlamov is 2.00, .935 sv% which is very good, but it's not record breaking. I see him being maybe 2.15 and .930~ for the year.

Giguere obviously won't stay where he's at, but the Avs don't need him to be 1.00 and .970 for the year, even if he drops to 2.50 and .915 for the rest of the year, the Avs will win most of those games.

Regardless of what you think. Varlamov is probably a top 5 goaltender now, his numbers ARE sustainable.

Well, that's exactly what I meant

Varly's stats are not unsustainable, but Giggy's are. Currently the team as overall has a .958 save%, which is mostly due to Giguere's stats. I love me some Giggy already from his Anaheim days, but like you said, those will fall and the Avalanche don't need him to play at that level for them to win. But if that save% drops to around .92 which would be around the average for a Varly/Giggy tandem behind the current Avs defense, it will mean you lose more games. In a weaker division, I'd say you'd still win the division, but with the other hot teams it won't be as easy.

Also the team is shooting at a rather high percentage, but that's another story.

1) The Wild havn't employed a trap strategy in ages since Lemaire left. They didn't during their great start and they're not any more.

2) They still don't have offensive depth? When did you last look at their lineup? It's no mistake that they're the second team in the league in shots for%, only trailing the current Stanley Cup champions.

The Avs will not keep up this pace, as everyone seems to realize, including Avs fans. Unsustainable goaltending. But they won't crash and burn as spectacularly as the Wild did before, due to the underlying stats being more solid. Most likely they'll be 3rd or 4th in their division come playoff time.

It's not the goaltending. If you think this tending is unsustainable you are just looking at their stats. The Avs have a few 3-0 4-1 5-2 losses coming to make the stats look better but this is not unsustainable tending. Just the stats are high due to small sample size.

More than shot differential, isn't goal differential a big indicator, as well? We're +1.63 goals/game right now and we also boast the 3rd best PK in the league. I think those are more important than shot differential (-1.6 shots/game) which is a fairly small difference.

To be fair, the goal differential has a lot to do with the record. The Avs haven't been on a shootout all year, so every win contributes at least 1 goal in the positive and the two losses have only set it back (I believe) 3 goals.

Only thing I disagree with is your prediction. I think that the Avs will finish ahead of one of the Blackhawks/Blues, and will definitely finish ahead of Minnesota, Dallas, Winnipeg, and Nashville. I have them 2nd in the division come playoff time, barring any significant injuries

I've had them ahead of Minnesota since before the season started if Roy was a competent coach. Minnesota isn't as good as people said they were before the season started. I see Dallas as more of a threat to get hot and challenge for the 3rd position than Minny.

What bothers me is that the ducks win a few games and suddenly they skyrocket unquestionably to the top expectation-wise. Everyone is crying "unsustainable!" at JSG and Varly, who are a conn smythe winner and a highly touted prospect coming into his prime, respectively. Yet the rookie projected to be no more than an NHL backup, Andersen, comes in for the ducks and goes 6-0 with a .950+ SV% and no one is crying fowl (hah!) or unsustainable. Obviously neither team is going to end the season with the goaltending stats they have now but people are so quick to call the Avs pretenders when simply watching their games will tell you otherwise.

What bothers me is that the ducks win a few games and suddenly they skyrocket unquestionably to the top expectation-wise. Everyone is crying "unsustainable!" at JSG and Varly, who are a conn smythe winner and a highly touted prospect coming into his prime, respectively. Yet the rookie projected to be no more than an NHL backup, Andersen, comes in for the ducks and goes 6-0 with a .950+ SV% and no one is crying fowl (hah!) or unsustainable. Obviously neither team is going to end the season with the goaltending stats they have now but people are so quick to call the Avs pretenders when simply watching their games will tell you otherwise.

The Ducks were 2nd in the Western Conference last season, and they aren't winning because of unsustainable goaltending. Andersen has played 6 games. Hiller has played 11.

The Ducks were 2nd in the Western Conference last season, and they aren't winning because of unsustainable goaltending.

I'm a ducks season ticket holder despite being an avalanche fan (any hockey is better than no hockey) and Andersen coming in red hot like this has played a huge part - I've seen it live. It's silly to deny that. They're dealing with a ton of injuries and it's very impressive that they keep winning in spite of them but you can't just write off a mid range prospect coming in to start his career 6-0 with an otherworldly save percentage and say that's not one of the reasons they're winning. If anything, what the ducks and avalanche are doing is equally unsustainable but you hear it over and over about the lanche and never about the ducks.

Most of the "unsustainable" goaltending numbers at this point from the avalanche are from JSG who has played one less game than Andersen has. Varlamov has been elite but mortal as of late and honestly he's at the age where he's coming into his prime so it wouldn't be surprising for him to end the season with career highs around .920-.925 in SV%. I really think he's only about .010-.015 over where he's going to end the year, at this point.

If you're watching the Avalanche games you'll notice that a lot of those games aren't being won by their goalies either. Pittsburgh comes to mind but especially recently they've just been outscoring their opponents plain and simple. They've been allowing ~2.5 goals a game in the last 7 games and have still won 6 of those, with 4 of those being by multiple goals.

I'm a ducks season ticket holder despite being an avalanche fan (any hockey is better than no hockey) and Andersen coming in red hot like this has played a huge part. It's silly to deny that. They're dealing with a ton of injuries and it's very impressive that they just keep winning in spite of them but you can't just write off a mid range prospect coming in to start his career 6-0 and say that's not one of the reasons they're winning. If anything, what the ducks and avalanche are doing is equally unsustainable but you hear it over and over about the lanche and never about the ducks.

Again, the Ducks were 2nd in the West last season.

As for Andersen, he's played well. There's no doubt about that. But you're making it sound like Andersen came in and they started winning, or that he's been in non-stop. Hiller was the go-to guy, until he caught the flu before the last game. It's not like Andersen came in and turned things around. When Fasth went down, Andersen came in as back-up, and he's been sharing games with Hiller since.

Edit: And yes, obviously Andersen's numbers are going to average out. That's obvious. But when the Ducks are carrying the play 5-on-5, you can expect it to make the goalie look good. The Ducks are leaning on their offense more than their goaltending.

But when the Ducks are carrying the play 5-on-5, you can expect it to make the goalie look good.

And the Avalanche aren't? The Ducks and the Lanch are 1 and 2 in 5 on 5 for/against goals ratio. The Avs don't have the pedigree but they're doing everything necessary in my mind to get some respect. Hell, their goals per game is essentially identical (3.42 to 3.38).

Obviously they aren't going to finish with 70 wins and I don't think they even finish top 2 in the West, but seeing every single win rationalized and marginalized is extremely frustrating. It's less of a critique of the ducks than it is frustration at lack of credit being given to the Avs.

And the Avalanche aren't? The Ducks and the Lanch are 1 and 2 in 5 on 5 for/against goals ratio. The Avs don't have the pedigree but they're doing everything necessary in my mind to get some respect.

Obviously they aren't going to finish with 70 wins and I don't think they even finish top 2 in the West, but seeing every single win rationalized and marginalized is extremely frustrating. It's less of a critique of the ducks than it is frustration at lack of credit being given to the Avs.

Well, I expect the Ducks to cool off a little. This isn't a pace they are going to keep up, especially with the injuries they have.

And I don't think it's the goals scored that people are questioning, but the goals against, and the save percentage.

I still expect one of Chicago or STL to run away with the central, while the other battles the avs and wild for the automatic playoff spots, I think Minnesota ends up the odd team out hoping for a WC berth, but I'd love for it to be the Blues as I like the other three teams.