The Good News: Cybercriminals can still be beaten with good old-fashioned police work:

By now, it should be clear why Henry of Secure Computing has been giving a presentation called “Anti-Forensics: Considering a Career in Computer Forensics? Don’t Quit Your Day Job.” The state of forensics certainly sounds hopeless, and Henry himself says, “The forensics community, there’s not a hell of a lot they can do.”
But in fact there’s some hope. Carrier says, “Yes, it makes things a lot harder, but I don’t think it’s the end of the world by any means.” What can start to turn the tables on the bad guys, say these experts and others, is if investigators embrace a necessary shift in thinking. They must end the cat-and-mouse game of hack-defend-hack-defend. Defeating antiforensics with forensics is impossible. Investigations, instead, must downplay the role of technology and broaden their focus on physical investigation processes and techniques: intelligence, human interviews and interrogations, physical investigations of suspects’ premises, tapping phones, getting friends of suspects to roll over on them, planting keyloggers on suspects’ computers. There are any number of ways to infiltrate the criminal world and gather evidence. In fact, one of the reasons for the success of antiforensics has been the limited and unimaginative approach computer forensic professionals take to gathering evidence. They rely on the technology, on the hard disk image and the data dump. But when evidence is gathered in such predictable, automated ways, it’s easy for a criminal to defeat that.
“I go back to my background as a homicide detective,” says the investigator in the aquarium case. “In a murder investigation, there is no second place. You have to win. So you come at it from every angle possible. You think of every way to get to where you want to go. Maybe we can’t find the source on the network with a scanning tool. So you hit the street. Find a boss. His boss. His boss. You find the guy selling data on the black market. The guy marketing it on [Internet Relay Chat]. You talk to them. They’re using stego? Maybe we drop some stego on them. The techniques used in physical investigations are becoming increasingly important.”
Indeed, if one looks back on some of the major computer crimes in which suspects were caught, one will notice that rarely was it the digital evidence that led to their capture. In the case of Jeffrey Goodin of California, the first ever under the Can-Spam Act, it was a recorded phone call with a friend who had flipped on the suspect that led to the conviction. In the case of the Russian botnet operators who had extorted millions from gaming sites, it was an undercover operation in which a “white hat” hacker befriended the criminals. In the United Kingdom, says Grugq, the police are using social modeling to try to penetrate antiforensics used on mobile phones for drug dealing. “The police’s goal is to get a confession,” he says. “They don’t care if they have compelling evidence off the disk.” In the TJX case, the only arrests made to date are based on purchases of exorbitant gift cards at the company’s retail stores, caught on tape.
It will be the interviews with those people, and not system analysis, that will lead to more information and, potentially, more arrests in the case.
“Every successful forensics case I’ve worked on turned into a physical security investigation,” says Bill Pennington, a researcher at White Hat Security and veteran technical forensics investigator. “In one case, it was an interview with someone who turned on someone else. You layer the evidence. Build it up. He sees the writing on the wall, and he cracks. But if we had to rely on what the computer evidence told us, we would have been stuck.”