Tonight's GOP debate will probably attract more attention than any previous – it could be the first time Herman Cain faces any sustained criticism from the right and the candidacies of each B-lister depend on breaking through (in some way) during this fourth quarter of fundraising.

All that said, is anything really at risk tonight? To use the vernacular of the debate's setting, Las Vegas – are the candidates playing high-stakes poker or go fish?

Or it is it really more of a Cher concert (another Vegas mainstay)? Lots of fake drama, premeditated one-liners, heavy makeup and lip-synching of greatest hits.

As I've mentioned repeatedly in these pages, it is close to pointless to use today's polls or coverage to predict what will happen in November (or even at the end of the GOP primary).

I'll be watching not to see who comes out with the highest favorable rating among voters or the media (aka "won the debate"), but for how the tone of discussion may have shifted as the country settles into prolonged frustration with the economy. Will any candidates attempt to co-opt the anger that so many feel – and will they be willing to extend ideas for solutions that aren't quick fixes?

Santorum's attempt to link the economy with social ills in the last debate resonated for many – and was even kind of true! – and the dissolution of the family that comes with the dissolution of the workforce is a real thing. Will this bring social issues into the discussion?

As part of my continued project of taking Herman Cain seriously, I'll also be watching for how his new-found popularity influences his opponents: more slogans, perhaps? More pizza? (Oops. Taking Cain seriously is harder than it looks!)

All this and more will be a part of my live-Tweeting of the debate. I'll also be showing up on the Guardian live-blog of the event. See you there.