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SPRINGFIELD - The Massachusetts Senate race between Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and Democrat Elizabeth Warren remains close, according to a new poll, which shows the Harvard Law School professor holding a 4-point lead.

The latest survey conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican/MassLive.com, concluded that Warren is leading Brown, 50 percent to 46 percent, with the junior senator jumping one percentage point compared to the Sept. 28-Oct. 4 poll.

The live telephone survey of 535 likely voters across Massachusetts was conducted between Oct. 26- Nov. 1 and has a 4 percent margin of error.

Both candidates saw their overall favorability remain stable since the previous poll, despite additional weeks of negative campaigning and attacks on each side.

Brown's favorable/unfavorable rating is currently 53-36 percent, compared to 52-36 percent in the previous Western New England University poll. Warren's favorable/unfavorable rating is now 51-40 percent among likely voters, compared to 50-41 percent just one month ago.

Both Brown and Warren still maintain an overall lead within their own gender. Fifty-six percent of men are supporting Brown compared to 39 percent who are supporting Warren. Conversely, 60 percent of women are supporting Warren while 36 percent are supporting Brown.

Warren has made important progress in at least one specific area – convincing supporters of President Barack Obama to vote for her as well. In the latest survey, 84 percent of Obama supporters say they will also back Warren, up from 76 percent in the previous survey. Ten percent of Obama supporters say they will vote for Brown, down from 18 percent in the previous survey, despite the junior senator actively courting them on the campaign trail.

“Obama’s supporters will decide who wins this Senate seat,” said Tim Vercellotti, a professor of political science and director of the Western New England University Polling Institute. “Warren has to keep as many of those votes as possible, and Brown needs to peel them away in order to find a path to victory.”

After launching an Obama supporters for Brown initiative a few weeks ago, this week, Brown's "People over Party" bus tour across brought him around the commonwealth where he made a pitch that people should vote for a particular candidate instead of a political party, considering the unpopularity of the national Republican Party in the Bay State.

With few days left until people cast their vote, more people have already made their mind up. Of the likely voters polled, 90 percent say they are "very sure" about their choice, compared to 84 percent a month ago. Nine percent say they could still change their vote before Tuesday, indicating that each campaign still has an opportunity to win over some additional people.

But to do this, both sides will likely have to go beyond advertising which has already saturated TV and radio stations across Massachusetts. And according to the poll, the voter engagement is already is high-gear with many of those surveyed saying they have had at least one telephone conversation with an advocate of Brown or Warren in the past month.

Likely Voter Support According to Political Party

Of those who reported phone conversations with interested parties in regards to the Senate race, 42 percent said the caller had urged them to vote for Warren, 18 percent said the caller asked them to support Brown and 37 percent said they had multiple conversations with supporters of both candidates.

The poll concluded that voters who said they are independents or Democrats were slightly more likely than Republicans to have a telephone conversation with an advocate for one
of the candidates. Thirty-one percent of independent voters and 25 percent of Democrats said they had had at least one telephone conversation, while 21 percent of Republicans said the same.

“The more frequent reports of conversations with advocates for Warren may reflect a stronger outreach effort on her behalf,” Vercellotti noted.

The discrepancy between apparent outreach on behalf of the respective candidates can likely be, in part, chalked up to the Massachusetts Democratic Party having a larger political machine in the Bay State than the commonwealth's Republican Party.

Far fewer likely voters reported having a conversation with at a canvasser who came to
their home in the past month. Just nine percent of likely voters said someone knocked on their door to push a candidate, and the likelihood of such contact was greater for independents and Democrats compared to Republicans.

In reference to those who came knocking, 62 percent of likely voters who had such an experience said a canvasser was asking them to vote for Warren compared to 22 percent who said the person was recommending Brown.

Likely Voter Support Compared to Two Previous WNE Polls

But despite reaching out via phone and in person, many likely voters who had such an experience said it was not a big factor in their decision about who to vote for.

Only four percent said such an interaction was "very important" in their decision and 12 percent said it was "somewhat important." Reporting that it was "not very important" were 23 percent while 59 percent said it was "not at all important."

Vercellotti said, however, that the results do not necessarily suggest that voter engagement is a waste of time.

"Having these conversations can work both ways," he said. "Campaigns not only get a chance to persuade voters; they also have an opportunity to identify likely supporters whom they can mobilize to vote on Election Day."

The survey also found that almost half of likely voters had spoken to a relative or friend to urge them to support either Brown or Warren this election season. Fifty-six percent of Republican voters had done so, compared to 49 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents.

Among those who had spoken to a friend or relative about supporting a candidate, 50 percent said they had urged their friends and relatives to vote for Warren, 44 percent said Brown, and six percent declined to say.

The choices split along party and gender lines that mirrored the overall preferences of the electorate, which remained steady since the last poll, with most independents and Republicans supporting Brown and Democrats largely supporting Warren.

Among those who had spoken to at least one friend or relative about supporting a candidate, 97 percent of Republicans urged their acquaintances to vote for Brown, as did 61 percent of independent voters, while 91 percent of Democrats encouraged friends and relatives to back Warren. Fifty-three percent of men who had had a conversation with friends or relatives urged them to vote for Brown, while 60 percent of women advocated on Warren's behalf.

"They say one should never discuss politics, money or religion in social situations," Vercellotti said. "But politics seems to be fair game for a lot of voters, at least for now."