Hampton Roads dodged a blow as 2013 Atlantic hurricane season ends

Hampton Roads dodged a blow this year as the Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Saturday with only two hurricanes on record — the fewest in 31 years — neither of which made landfall in the U.S.

And for the first time in 19 years, the Atlantic brewed up no major hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

All this despite an original federal forecast of an "active" to "extremely active" season of seven to 11 hurricanes forming from June through November, three to six of them major.

East Coast residents can thank a mix of atmospheric conditions for the reprieve, NOAA says.

"We wound up having an unpredictable atmospheric pattern that set up during August, September and October," NOAA lead hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell explained. "And that pattern brought a lot of dry and stable air, and also strong wind shear into the main hurricane development region. It really suppressed the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes from what was expected."

NOAA expects 2013 to rank as the sixth-least-active Atlantic hurricane season since 1950 in terms of collective strength and duration of named storms and hurricanes.

But Bell cautioned against getting complacent.

"We in the U.S. got a break," Bell said. "But we had 13 named storms — that's an above-average number of named storms this year."

The average number of named Atlantic storms is 12, according to NOAA, while the average number of hurricanes is six, three of them major.

A hurricane has sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while a major one sustains winds of at least 111 mph.

In fact, said Bell, the Atlantic has experienced above-normal hurricane activity for 13 of the last 19 years — with no end in sight.

"There's no indication that climate patterns that have been producing more hurricanes are dissipating," Bell said. "We're seeing more hurricanes, and they (coastal residents) need to be prepared."

And while the U.S. may have been spared hurricane landfall this year, NOAA says, Mexico was bludgeoned by three hurricanes and five tropical storms.

The only tropical storm to make landfall in the U.S. was Andrea, which struck in June from Florida up to South Carolina.

In August, NOAA slightly tempered its original hurricane forecast, largely because the La Nina climate cycle, which traditionally increases the chances for Atlantic hurricanes, failed to develop. The forecast was revised to 13 to 19 named storms, with six to nine blowing up into hurricanes, three to five of them major.

It's not impossible for an Atlantic hurricane to develop past November, said Bell, but it's unlikely. The last year he could remember it happening was 2005.

At the National Weather Service in Wakefield, meteorologist Mike Montefusco said the area may have been spared a hurricane but "we've certainly had our share of severe weather" over the past few months, particularly with strong winds.

Now as the hurricane season officially ends, he said, "our attention pivots to winter weather concerns and coastal flooding concerns."

The region is looking at a colder and more active period heading into December, he said, adding that cold temperatures this time of year are actually more normal than the warmer temperatures of the last few years.

"Climatologically, we know what we can expect across the Hampton Roads area, which is very variable types of conditions for the winter weather season," Montefusco said. "It isn't at all unreasonable to have very warm spells and very quickly transition to very cold periods. As far as the forecast goes, it's really kind of tough to go far out into the future."