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dinsdag 19 januari 2016

Beperkt beschikbare olie en het einde van de schuldensupercyclus

“What
is ahead for 2016 ? Most people don’t
realize how tightly the following are linked :

1.
Growth in debt

2.
Growth in the economy

3.
Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies

4.
Inflation in the cost of producing commodities

5.
Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock and of farmland

6.
Growth in wages of non-elite workers

7.
Population growth”

…

“Many
people have talked about Peak Oil, the Limits to Growth and the Debt Supercycle
without realizing that the underlying problem is really the same – the fact
that we are reaching the limits of a finite world.”

…

“The
US government has recently decided to raise interest rates. This further reduces the buying power of
non-elite workers. We have a situation
where the “economic growth pump”, created through the use of a rising quantity
of cheap energy products plus rising debt, is disappearing.”

…

“Debt
defaults are likely to cause major problems in 2016. As noted in the introduction, we seem to be
approaching the unwinding of the debt supercycle. We can expect one company after another to
fail because of low commodity prices.
The problems of these failing companies can be expected to spread to the economy as a whole.”

…

“Thus
all economies have finite lifetimes, just as humans, animals, plants and
hurricanes do. We are in the unfortunate
position of observing the end of our economy’s lifetime.”…

“We
know that historically collapses have tended to take many years. This collapse may take place more rapidly
because today’s economy is dependent on international supply chains,
electricity and liquid fuels – things that previous economies were not
dependent on.”