NC 2nd District Flash Poll

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1

North Carolina will hold elections for national and state offices in November 2010. On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely are you to vote in the election… where 10 means you are certain to vote …and 1 means you are certain NOT to vote.

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.8%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

1

6%

5%

7%

8%

5%

5%

8%

6%

6%

6%

8%

**

**

7%

5%

7%

7%

7%

78%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2

1%

1%

1%

0%

1%

1%

2%

0%

2%

1%

1%

**

**

2%

0%

1%

1%

1%

12%

0%

0%

0%

0%

3

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

2%

0%

0%

2%

0%

3%

**

**

0%

1%

0%

0%

1%

9%

0%

0%

0%

0%

4

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

**

**

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%

5

9%

6%

11%

22%

8%

1%

5%

14%

3%

6%

9%

**

**

5%

13%

5%

5%

12%

0%

100%

0%

0%

0%

6

2%

5%

0%

6%

1%

1%

1%

3%

1%

1%

7%

**

**

2%

1%

6%

1%

0%

0%

0%

22%

0%

0%

7

3%

4%

2%

8%

2%

1%

1%

4%

1%

4%

1%

**

**

3%

3%

3%

5%

3%

0%

0%

30%

0%

0%

8

5%

4%

6%

10%

3%

5%

1%

6%

3%

3%

10%

**

**

6%

5%

3%

1%

2%

0%

0%

48%

0%

0%

9

10%

13%

8%

8%

9%

13%

12%

9%

12%

12%

7%

**

**

16%

9%

5%

15%

8%

0%

0%

0%

100%

0%

10

63%

61%

65%

38%

70%

70%

70%

57%

70%

67%

55%

**

**

59%

62%

70%

65%

67%

0%

0%

0%

0%

100%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

Averages

8.5

8.6

8.4

7.4

8.8

8.9

8.6

8.2

8.8

8.7

8.0

7.1

8.4

8.5

8.4

8.6

8.7

8.4

1.3

5.0

7.3

9.0

10.0

2

In general, is the state of North Carolina headed in the right direction? Or is it off on the wrong track?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Right Direction

24%

22%

26%

22%

13%

30%

38%

16%

34%

15%

55%

**

**

13%

37%

14%

6%

49%

33%

17%

28%

20%

24%

Wrong Track

60%

64%

57%

63%

66%

59%

46%

65%

54%

69%

32%

**

**

66%

47%

77%

79%

35%

59%

56%

52%

57%

62%

Not Sure

16%

14%

17%

16%

21%

10%

16%

19%

12%

16%

13%

**

**

21%

16%

9%

15%

16%

8%

28%

20%

23%

13%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

3

In the election for Congress this fall, will you vote for … (choices rotated) the Republican candidate? Or the Democratic candidate?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Republican

45%

52%

39%

41%

47%

43%

49%

45%

45%

59%

6%

**

**

83%

20%

44%

89%

7%

44%

23%

40%

57%

47%

Democratic

39%

35%

42%

39%

33%

42%

45%

36%

43%

24%

83%

**

**

7%

69%

24%

4%

83%

41%

53%

42%

30%

38%

Undecided

16%

13%

18%

20%

19%

15%

7%

20%

12%

18%

11%

**

**

10%

11%

32%

7%

10%

15%

23%

18%

13%

15%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

4

Is your opinion of Bob Etheridge … favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Bob Etheridge?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Favorable

26%

19%

33%

25%

21%

26%

39%

23%

31%

24%

37%

**

**

15%

36%

19%

3%

64%

35%

24%

2%

20%

31%

Unfavorable

40%

46%

35%

43%

41%

39%

38%

42%

38%

47%

19%

**

**

54%

27%

51%

71%

2%

33%

19%

60%

35%

42%

Neutral

26%

31%

22%

17%

32%

30%

18%

26%

25%

25%

29%

**

**

24%

26%

29%

21%

23%

19%

27%

35%

32%

24%

No Opinion

8%

4%

11%

15%

5%

5%

6%

9%

5%

4%

16%

**

**

7%

11%

2%

5%

11%

13%

30%

2%

13%

4%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

5

Is your opinion of Renee Ellmers… favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion of Renee Ellmers?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Favorable

17%

26%

9%

15%

16%

19%

19%

16%

19%

20%

8%

**

**

29%

12%

12%

39%

4%

9%

1%

18%

36%

17%

Unfavorable

11%

9%

14%

14%

9%

13%

11%

11%

12%

14%

5%

**

**

7%

13%

16%

5%

13%

15%

4%

0%

6%

15%

Neutral

32%

34%

30%

20%

30%

39%

39%

26%

39%

32%

35%

**

**

29%

31%

39%

32%

29%

45%

19%

34%

25%

33%

No Opinion

39%

31%

47%

50%

45%

29%

32%

47%

31%

35%

51%

**

**

35%

44%

33%

24%

54%

31%

75%

49%

32%

35%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

6

If the election for United States House of Representatives were today, would you vote for (candidate names rotated) … Republican Renee Ellmers? Democrat Bob Etheridge? Or Libertarian Tom Rose?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Ellmers (R)

39%

49%

31%

32%

45%

39%

37%

40%

39%

50%

9%

**

**

70%

22%

32%

100%

0%

37%

21%

30%

56%

41%

Etheridge (D)

38%

30%

44%

31%

37%

36%

48%

35%

41%

27%

67%

**

**

15%

58%

22%

0%

100%

45%

50%

16%

28%

40%

Rose (L)

13%

11%

14%

21%

13%

12%

3%

16%

8%

13%

10%

**

**

6%

8%

35%

0%

0%

6%

16%

25%

11%

11%

Undecided

11%

10%

11%

16%

5%

13%

11%

10%

12%

10%

15%

**

**

10%

12%

11%

0%

0%

12%

13%

29%

5%

8%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

7

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Approve

38%

34%

41%

32%

35%

43%

41%

34%

42%

23%

81%

**

**

11%

63%

19%

8%

77%

45%

54%

29%

27%

38%

Disapprove

55%

59%

50%

54%

58%

53%

51%

56%

52%

70%

12%

**

**

84%

28%

73%

87%

18%

52%

37%

55%

60%

56%

Not Sure

8%

7%

8%

14%

7%

4%

8%

10%

5%

8%

7%

**

**

5%

9%

8%

5%

5%

3%

9%

16%

13%

6%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

8

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that supported the health care bill recently signed into law? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

More Likely

34%

31%

36%

25%

33%

38%

40%

30%

39%

20%

73%

**

**

9%

56%

18%

6%

69%

50%

36%

31%

26%

33%

Less Likely

53%

57%

49%

58%

54%

51%

48%

55%

50%

70%

5%

**

**

84%

30%

61%

91%

15%

47%

46%

46%

61%

54%

No Difference

9%

8%

10%

6%

11%

9%

12%

9%

10%

10%

8%

**

**

6%

10%

15%

2%

11%

3%

19%

11%

14%

8%

Not Sure

4%

3%

5%

12%

2%

1%

1%

6%

1%

0%

14%

**

**

2%

4%

6%

0%

5%

0%

0%

12%

0%

4%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

9

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that voted for "Cap and Trade" legislation that would regulate carbon emissions? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

More Likely

34%

34%

34%

37%

27%

37%

35%

31%

36%

29%

51%

**

**

14%

41%

49%

17%

50%

35%

24%

38%

19%

36%

Less Likely

36%

42%

31%

26%

39%

40%

37%

34%

39%

42%

18%

**

**

51%

26%

38%

59%

18%

37%

34%

11%

54%

37%

No Difference

26%

24%

28%

28%

28%

22%

24%

28%

23%

25%

24%

**

**

27%

29%

13%

20%

27%

20%

42%

42%

24%

22%

Not Sure

4%

1%

8%

8%

5%

1%

4%

6%

2%

4%

7%

**

**

7%

4%

0%

4%

4%

7%

0%

9%

3%

4%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

10

Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate that voted to approve the bailout for Wall Street? Less likely? Or would it make no difference either way?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

More Likely

16%

16%

16%

21%

10%

16%

20%

15%

17%

13%

27%

**

**

8%

22%

15%

6%

25%

25%

20%

7%

8%

17%

Less Likely

61%

67%

56%

52%

64%

65%

60%

59%

63%

69%

36%

**

**

77%

49%

67%

85%

40%

50%

55%

45%

79%

63%

No Difference

20%

16%

23%

17%

24%

18%

18%

21%

18%

16%

34%

**

**

12%

24%

17%

9%

33%

14%

15%

40%

13%

19%

Not Sure

3%

2%

4%

10%

1%

1%

2%

5%

1%

3%

3%

**

**

4%

4%

1%

0%

2%

11%

9%

9%

0%

1%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

11

Have you seen, read or heard anything about a recent video showing Congressman Bob Etheridge involved in a confrontation with a college student?

400 Registered Voters

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

Yes

84%

84%

84%

68%

88%

89%

86%

80%

88%

89%

69%

**

**

84%

82%

85%

89%

80%

83%

61%

74%

86%

88%

No

13%

11%

14%

25%

10%

8%

9%

16%

8%

8%

27%

**

**

10%

14%

14%

8%

18%

14%

27%

26%

2%

10%

Not Sure

4%

6%

2%

7%

1%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

4%

**

**

6%

3%

2%

3%

2%

4%

12%

0%

12%

2%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Registered Voters

100%

46%

54%

22%

32%

28%

18%

54%

46%

68%

25%

3%

4%

32%

47%

20%

39%

38%

8%

9%

10%

10%

63%

12

Does the video make you more likely to vote for Bob Etheridge? Less likely? Or does it make no difference either way?

335 Familiar With Video

All

Gender

Age

<50 / 50+

Race

Party Affiliation

Vote For US Rep

Likely To Vote

Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5.5%

Male

Female

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

18-49

50+

White

Black

Hispanic

Asian/Ot

Republic

Democrat

Independ

Ellmers

Etheridge

1-4

5

6-8

9

10

More Likely

14%

14%

14%

12%

7%

18%

24%

9%

20%

11%

29%

**

**

5%

22%

14%

2%

37%

25%

16%

11%

11%

14%

Less Likely

45%

46%

44%

54%

50%

37%

41%

52%

39%

49%

26%

**

**

64%

32%

48%

71%

8%

40%

31%

70%

46%

44%

No Difference

39%

37%

41%

34%

40%

44%

35%

38%

41%

39%

40%

**

**

31%

43%

38%

27%

52%

35%

53%

19%

43%

40%

Not Sure

1%

2%

1%

0%

3%

1%

0%

2%

1%

0%

4%

**

**

0%

2%

0%

0%

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

Total

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Composition of Familiar With Video

100%

46%

54%

18%

33%

30%

19%

51%

49%

72%

21%

2%

5%

32%

46%

20%

42%

36%

8%

6%

9%

11%

66%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.

Reader Interactions

Discussion

Presumably the idea here is to check on how Bob Etheridge, incumbent Democrat, is doing after an ambush video went a bit poorly for him.

Unfortunately I’m about ready to throw away this poll as useless. This poll also features Libertarian Tom Rose, and he pulls 13% to Etheridge’s 38, and Republican Renee Elmers’s 39 (MoE 4.2). That libertarian seems to skew the whole result a great deal, as the Libertarian voters are less likely to vote at all than the Elmers and Etheridge voters according to the poll.
SurveyUSA asks people on a scale of 1-10 how likely they are to vote, with 10 being most likely. Ellmers peaks at 9 and pulls in 41% at 10. Etheridge peaks at 5 and pulls in 40$ at 10. Rose peaks at “6-8″ and only pulls in 11% at 10.
So, all I can pull out of this poll is that it’s close, becuase I think it highly unlikely that a Libertarian will suddenly pull 10% in a district where the Libertarian pulled under 2% last time, to Etheridge’s 67 and the Republican’s 31. So, Etheridge is facing more of a threat this year than last time, even if he could pull in every Libertarian in this poll.

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