The phone is constantly ringing in a small dark room furnished only with chairs and a desk with a register lying open on the top.

On any other Saturday, the phone attendant would be jotting down the details received on the phone in the register. But today, he is just busy answering every call with —

“The main grid station has tripped and we don’t know how long it will take for the electricity supply to be restored.”

Bang! The receiver is put back before the voice on the other end has time to react.

Ayyaz (not his real name), the phone attendant, works in a sub-divisional office of an electricity distribution company in Lahore.

He is the distribution company’s interface for consumers and is greeted more often with abuse than salutations as he is held accountable for shutdowns, power tripping and faults in the electricity supply — none of which are his fault.

These exchanges with consumers are even more heated on days when a power debate has ensued in the media between the government and the opposition. Just as he is ending his long work shift, his wrinkled face dots with a smile as he shares —

“We (the consumers and the providers) are all in the same boat. Working in the electricity distribution sector is one of the toughest professions out there. We have spent more time in these rooms than with our families and yet we are constantly met with anger, contempt and hatred. Sometimes things are within our control and more often they are not.

“Things have improved, and I hope will continue to do so.”

***

This question of why we still do not have uninterrupted power supply has become even more mainstream. Power tripping, load shedding and breakdowns are followed by a blame game in the media as well as offline.

However, the matter is much more complicated than the contours of these debates would suggest.

To be able to mitigate Pakistan’s power crisis, it is important to understand how the system actually works, how much progress has been made over the years and what needs to be done to address the remaining challenges.

Energy deficit.

The previous government was able to increase the installed generation capacity in Pakistan to approximately 28,000 megawatts, according to Wapda officials.

Quite a feat. With that taken care of, what are the bottlenecks that persist?

The transmission and distribution capacity is stalled at approximately 22,000MW. The maximum total demand coming from residential and industrial estates stands at nearly 25,000MW (there are seasonal fluctuations, of course).

This leads to a deficit of about 3,000MW when the demand peaks and hence there is a need to shed the ‘extra’ load. The result, we all know.

The additional 3,000MW required cannot be transmitted to where it is needed even though it can be generated.

How is the electricity system structured?

There are several moving parts to the supply chain.

After power is generated in powerhouses, the voltage is stepped up to be transmitted via primary transmission lines to 500/220 kilovolt grid stations.

In these grid stations, the voltage is converted to 132kv and then transmitted via secondary transmission lines to 132kv grid stations.

From here, they are transmitted to distribution lines and delivered to consumers.

This can only be seamlessly done if there is backup stock of what is needed. Summer brings about an increase in these occurrences since electricity usage is at its peak.

Moreover, the total load/demand by a household may be underreported. Add electricity theft to it and you have an overloaded transformer which may trip several times leading to blackouts for hours.

Yes, we may well be as much part of the problem as the service providers and the policy planners.

Course correction

So where do we begin?

I like this question for it emanates hope. But this question is being asked of a structure that is institutionally very complex.

No one entity oversees the entire process. No one entity will own up to the systemic deficiencies.

A clear action plan is needed at every divisible chunk of this supply chain.

Use of data may help identify the high impact projects that can take precedence over others. And while we design the action plan, it is important to address the underlying issues that mar the implementation process.

Any solution can only be effective in as long as the extent to which it addresses these underlying factors.

Follow this with a data driven priority ranking of what project within each unit needs to be funded first.

Top this with human resource interventions along the supply chain and creative consumer engagement. Most importantly, follow the planning and deployment with data-driven process monitoring, troubleshooting and impact feedback.

The plan is simple.

Inject data-driven planning. Inject expertise.

And voila — there shall be light!

Header illustration by Zoha Bundally

Are you researching Pakistan's energy sector? Share your insights with us at blog@dawn.com

Maha Rehman is currently at the Center for Economic Research Pakistan. She is a Pakistan Acumen Fellow 2016 and her expertise lies in designing and executing evidence-based policy and programmes to improve service delivery and impact.

The views expressed by this writer and commenters below do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.

Comments (27) Closed

Dr. Salaria, Aamir AhmadSep 03, 2018 05:28pm

For various intriguing reasons, top of which is deep-rooted corruption from top to bottom in the sociocultural fabric of the country, load-shedding could never be eliminated to become part of history in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan.

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ArjunSep 03, 2018 06:46pm

A South Asia grid with ability to reverse meter based on local renewable generation will be a true game changer. Plus, being one of the most solar abundant region in the world, massive investments are needed in solar thermal, where molten salt and not batteries can be used to store energy, thereby making solar cheaper than coal. Just by these factors alone, the GDP of the region would double in 25 years more than it would otherwise

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twopatSep 03, 2018 08:09pm

A well explained and informative article. When the capacity is 28,000MW and supply is 22,000MW, the transmission and distribution should be increased by 6000 MW (for future needs).This way, load shedding will end. It is for the Govt. to ask Chinese under the CPEC program to make it a top priority. Let them bring their own workers, it will speed up the work and they will be fully responsible for it. This will improve the economy and lessen public sufferings which are priorities.

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M. SaeedSep 03, 2018 08:12pm

Our power travails apart from power theft and corruption lie in the poor planning. It has reliably been estimated that, we have over 120,000 MW of electricity generation potential lying in the high mountains. Hydroelectricity is the natural answer. But, we have not built a single hydroectric power station in the lasxt 42 years since Tarbela. In comparison, India has built many, including on our own rivers.

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M. SaeedSep 03, 2018 08:18pm

We must have Hydro Power as our backbone and Thermal Power should only be for firming up the capacity during lean water periods. But, for strange reason, Benazir Bhutto during her time in '93, very boastfully announced that she had made Rental Power as the corner stone of her Elecric Power Policy. Do we need any elaboration on who was behind that policy?

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AvtarSep 03, 2018 09:22pm

Why is the 'poor' receptionist answering calls in person. A recorded voice message would be effective (plus other web based technologies) Use the resources to solve to distribution and other issues. Perhaps, a lean methodology or the so called Toyota methodology will simplify the processes.

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WasifSep 03, 2018 11:56pm

Electric substations of all those localities with adeguate sace for installation of Solar panels may be converted to grid tie photovoltaic power stations to cover day time peak electric power demand of those localities bypassing most of the transmission network.

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cautiousSep 04, 2018 01:07am

Building expensive power plants without adequate transmission lies is as stupid as building coal fire plants without upgrading the rail lines so that they can carry heavy coal for fuel. Ample evidence that politicians were more concerned about making CPEC look good than insuring CPEC did any good.

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DesiManSep 04, 2018 09:07am

India's per capita energy requirement is 800 KWh while Pakistan is 500 KWh. It is hard to imagine that the difference can be so stark. It must be that Pakistan not only has distribution problems, as the author suggests but also has inadequate production.

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Demetri IsakofSep 04, 2018 09:48am

In my humble opinion only two things. Mismanagement of electricity and allied resources. Secondly, Thickness of electrical wires, which they are now changing. Late but not forsaken. However, corruption, laziness of staff, non professionalism, no accountability, nor any processes or checks n balances in place to root out apathy from the electricity, gas and water boards, staff etc; is at the very root.

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ReaderSep 04, 2018 10:32am

Why is a country of 207 million and passing out hundreds of engineers every year, cannot think ahead, plan and execute. Why do we mention C.P.E.C. and the Chinese in everything, why cannot we make our own generators, turbines, cables, control panels, transformers, meters, switch gears, electronics, every thing that is required from scratch No wonder we keep on importing all these equipment, at a huge cost, when in fact we should be designing, researching, making these equipment here in Pakistan, and exporting them. Why cannot we understand that independence means standing on our own two feet, that is a game changer not C.P.E.C. We are nation without a rudder, without people who take responsibility, ownership. Other countries face similar problems, and they over come, we do not, because we cannot take responsibility, take on full ownership with consequences, so easy to pass the buck.

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Omar Sep 04, 2018 12:28pm

Thank you for this article as it helps us non-engineering Pakistani better understand the complex nature of Pakistan's energy dilemma and also better understand why it is taking time to correct the grid system. It is also high time that Pakistani people themselves educate themselves and encourage energy efficient practices and techniques to help in this regard.

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Hussain MujeebSep 04, 2018 12:58pm

If Finance Minister of Pakistan wants people to use electricity or any other service in a legal way, he should minimize the Application / Registration Fee first. In oder to apply for Electricity or Sui or Wasa one must have to invest some 20-25 thousand per service.

Because mostly people earns some 5-7000 rupees a month like house maid, workers etc and they can't efford and can't register themselve with Wapda, Wasa, SUI Gas, etc etc therefore fail to avail these opportunity. By minimizing the Application fee, there would be a chance that more and more people get legalize themselves.

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ShahzaibSep 04, 2018 01:02pm

Our power distribution capacity was 11,500 to 12,500 max on 2012-13 report of SBP sice we have added generation around 12,000 And distribution capacity is 22,000 wow

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ReaderSep 04, 2018 01:32pm

Why is the system, not answerable, why do consumers have to bear the brunt, why are there so many view points about what is wrong, why can there not be an independent finding of where the faults occur. This is a challenge to make things work.

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atif khanSep 04, 2018 02:07pm

every year sale of appliances increasing ..one of the shop near my place sold 400 air conditoner units, extrapolate it to the pakistan shop selling electric appliances you will get answer to the CAPTION of this article

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AsadSep 04, 2018 06:56pm

Get rid of water and power ministry. It should be privatized and the government should be in the business of regulating these agencies. Heavy financial penalties should be imposed if the private sector does not meet the required quota. If there is no accountability people become lazy and irresponsible. That is human nature.

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HAmid KHANSep 04, 2018 07:20pm

Excellent analysis

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Iftikhar KhanSep 04, 2018 10:40pm

The new government should introduce and net metering ASAP, People will solve the power problem by themselves...

We have barely able to limped along with the previous industrial revolution, we should use it to our advantage and join the next industrial revolution soon.

This should be done on an urgent basis.

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Dr. Rafiq KhanSep 05, 2018 02:40am

Population growth is too fast

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LAHORI KIDSep 05, 2018 06:43am

Let us not kid ourselves, as money money the previous governments have spent fixing or eliminating the energy crisis, we should have a surplus in energy, we should have updated our systems. Ever seen the overhead web of tangled up electricity cables in the old parts of Lahore, Karachi and other big cities, its an open invitation to electricity theft, which thousands upon thousands of families do just that, they steal, which is another big part of the issue, but that's nothing new to anyone here. Lets invest in new meters, underground wiring like I saw couple of years ago in Lahore with all that new construction going on by the new airport.

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Umair AhmedSep 06, 2018 08:26pm

@Wasif There is no peak in day time for residential zones. Why do you think there is a peak time set for every region and why does it always hover in between 5pm and 11pm. Moreover, only solar is a very bad idea towards supplying reliable electricity and also enough to mitigate the overload. Not to mention expensive but a lot of land will need to be acquired.

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Umair AhmedSep 06, 2018 08:31pm

@cautious You have misunderstood the concept entirely. The transmission lines from the power plants do have enough capacity to transmit the fully supply capacity of the power plant. Its the existing grid that doesn't.

Do you think its easy or cheap to upgrade the entire grid of a city, let alone a country? In Musharraf's time, Rs. 61 billion were needed to upgrade just the Peshawar district grid. They didn't get that amount then, now it should be at least double that figure.

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Umair AhmedSep 06, 2018 08:37pm

@Reader You haven't researched that's why your opinions are misinformed. Making these equipment in Pakistan will cost a lot more than importing them considering that quality isn't compromised. Not to mention the obvious that one of the companies making them have ever set foot in Pakistan nor awarded a license.

And you also don't know that most of the distribution equipment is being manufactured locally. There is a clear inferiority in terms of quality standards but still, much of the equipment is from our own industries.

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Umair AhmedSep 06, 2018 08:43pm

@Shahzaib Obviously when you involve private sector with extremely biased policies, such growth can be expected. Its a similar scenario as was when Korean companies were given millions of dollars to uplift their country's economy. Though they experienced explosive growth (even explosive is an understatement) then and are still at it but the problems it created are not to gloss over either.

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Umair AhmedSep 06, 2018 08:57pm

@M. Saeed Hydro power is over rated. There was a time that it was cheap and sustainable but now its not. The extreme amount of money required to build one dam, to rehabilitate the people living around, to make way for new jobs for them and the destruction of marine life and dependent commercial activity is nothing to scoff at. Perhaps you have not seen or heard what Dasu and Bhasha dams are going to do the area around. All will get submerged, the villages, the properties, everything gone. If one is perceptive, the survey teams have marked the future water level in the valley as white circles on the surrounding mountains.

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Adeel Sep 08, 2018 09:49am

The equation presented (transmission capacity - consumer demand = deficit) is an incomplete equation. The missing element is the line losses, and this is a variable factor. That is, if the temperature is around 25 celcius, the losses are negligible. However, if temperature become 35 or higher the line losses get 20% or higher. Therefore, a complete equation is as follows:

ELECTRICITY GENERATION - CONSUMER DEMAND - LINE LOSSES = DEFICIT.

The solution is simply upgrade the transmission system that could give optimal performance even if temperature rises to be around 45 celcius.... As I skim through this article, though well informed, nothing like this is suggested in it. It isn't the managerial crises as such, but it is the lack of political will to take the undertaking of updating transmission lines. I called it political, only government could take responsibility of such a huge project and it may take 3 to 5 years or so...