Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Why is Belarus Conducting Military Exercises on the Ukrainian Border?

Paul
Goble

Staunton, June 17 – Two days ago,
the Belarusian armed forces began a command staff exercise in Gomel oblast with
the territorial forces of that region to perfect tactics to interdict
diversionary forces and illegal armed formations, an action that may have
broader implications because these maneuvers are occurring on that country’s
border with Ukraine.

“Any military exercises, if of
course they are conducted according to a plan and in the presence of international
observers, is normal practice, he says. “If they occur not far from the borders
of another state, then the latter should be warned in advance about them.” That
will prevent both misunderstandings and accidents.

That Belarus is doing this, however,
raises questions, he suggests. On the one hand, conducting such exercises is
standard practice if one’s country adjoins another that is in a state of war:
There is always the chance that forces there, legal or illegal, might cross the
border either for maneuver or to escape encirclement. Any government needs to
protect itself.

But on the other hand – and these
are possibilities Melnik does not mention – there are at least three reasons
why Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka may have taken this step. First, he
may have wanted to protect his own regime against a possible repetition of
Russia’s use of “little green men.”

Second, he may want to use the
problems in Ukraine as an excuse to bring his forces to greater readiness in
anticipation of possible domestic problems.And third, Lukashenka may be providing yet another form of cover for
Moscow’s “hybrid” war, muddying the waters of the conflict in Ukraine further
and providing the Kremlin with plausible deniability on its role.

As of now, there is no clear
indication in the open media as to which of these or possibly some other factor
is at work, and the possibilities are large because in that part of the world,
Vladimir Putin is not the only national leader who is living in an alternative
reality and who might act irrationally.