Performify's Picks for "UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez"

Results of 2-0 for +3 units on UFC 116 brings my recent running total to +30.675 units since UFC 75. If you’ve been following me on twitter (@performify) you’ve also seen me release a few recommendations there, including a clean sweep of 4-for-4 on recommendations for UFC 119.

I’ve gotten a lot of feedback from people who want to see more of “Performify’s Picks” and especially those longer write-ups that break down every fight. I hear you, and will definitely try to find time to make these more regular; unfortunately this time I’ve only got time for one write-up – my only recommended public play at the current betting lines – but I’ll try to make more time for a classic full-card breakdown for the next major event.

Speaking of event predictions, did you know that you can now formally track your own picks against your fellow MMA junkies? Be sure and check out the MMAjunkie.com MMA Fantasy game linked in the top header right next to the MMA Forums. I finished in the top few for UFC 119, and I’ve already got my picks locked in for this event. So if you think you can take me down in the predictions game of Fantasy Fighting, all I can say is, “Let’s get it on!”

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines below are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It’s easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you’ve experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven’t watched MMA. Having your heart race when your fighter steps into the cage – even if you’ve only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling like none other. (But you should only wager you’d feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)

Also, be sure to check the MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering forum for a lot of good discussion on upcoming MMA events from a variety of handicappers. For those fans serious about making profits on MMA wagering, this is the place to discuss strategy.

American Kickboxing Academy’s Cain Velasquez (8-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC) is progressing nicely into a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Formerly boxed into the stereotype of a wrestler who attacked only via ground and pound, as he’s continued to train and evolve Velasquez has balanced out his strong wrestling skills with improved striking.

The 28-year old Velasquez had a decorated amateur wrestling career that included All-American honors twice for Arizona State and a junior college championship for Iowa Central Community College. Only one of his fights has gone the distance: a unanimous-decision victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 99. While Velasquez showed a lack of good striking defense by getting blasted several times by Kongo in that fight, he also demonstrated a very solid chin and was ultimately able to use his wrestling skills to bring home the victory. In his most recent fight, at UFC 110 in February, Velasquez defeated an aging Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by knockout at 2:20 of the first round.

UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar (5-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) possesses what is arguably one of the best wrestling pedigrees in the UFC, and I’m not referring to his status as a three-time WWE “champion.” Lesnar was a four-time collegiate All-American, a two-time Big Ten champion and winner of the 2000 NCAA heavyweight championship (and placed second in 1999) wrestling for the University of Minnesota, where he amassed a 106–5 record in four years of college.

Lesnar is extremely athletically gifted, exceptionally strong, uncannily fast, incredibly explosive and unbelievably built. His 4XL MMA gloves are the same size used by the behemoth Hong Man Choi, who is 7-foot-2.

Lesnar was recently sidelined from MMA action for almost exactly a year, from July 2009 to July 2010, thanks to a bout with diverticulitis. Lesnar returned from the illness to face Shane Carwin at UFC 116. There, showing a bit of ring rust, Lesnar was dropped by Carwin early but weathered violent flurries from the challenger while on his back, ultimately escaping to his feet to end the round. Lesnar went on to easily dominate an exhausted Carwin in the second round, finishing the fight with an arm-triangle choke submission a little more than two minutes into the second round.

I believe this fight presents one of the better MMA betting opportunities I’ve seen in a while. I strongly believe that Lesnar will outclass and essentially dominate Velasquez in almost every area inside the cage, and I believe he represents a great bet at the current odds.

Lesnar is the fastest, most athletic heavyweight in the UFC, and in fact I’d say easily in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division. Velasquez is well-rounded, and while he’s extremely athletic in his own right, he’s nowhere near the freak physical athletic specimen as Lesnar. In short, I believe Lesnar eclipses Velasquez in every single relevant area for this fight – maybe not in every single area of mixed martial arts, certainly; but in every way that it’s going to matter for this fight.

For starters, I think the tremendous weight and strength difference in this fight is going to be a huge factor. To put in perspective the weight difference between these two, at 264 for Brock and 244 for Cain, there is essentially the exact same proportion in weight difference between a UFC middleweight and a UFC welterweight the day of weigh-in (185 pounds to 170 pounds). And that’s assuming that Lesnar is being honest with the media when he’s hinted that he hasn’t cut any meaningful weight to make the UFC’s 265-pound limit; if he has cut weight, the gap widens even farther as he re-hydrates.

I believe this size and corresponding strength advantage helps to compound a grappling advantage. While Velasquez is a decorated wrestler, Lesnar’s wrestling pedigree is inarguably superior: Velasquez was a two-time All-American, Lesnar a four time All-American. Velasquez’s best Division I Championship finishes were fourth and fifth; Lesnar’s are first and second. Velasquez lost seventeen times in three years in Division I, Lesnar only five in four years. Through a combination of superior skill and especially superior strength and size, I expect Lesnar to have a moderate-to-significant wrestling edge in the fight, especially so because wrestlers are rarely comfortable on their backs, so assuming Lesnar does have enough of an edge to get Velasquez down, it’s extremely unlikely Velasquez will be able to do anything once there.

While the UFC was obviously founded upon the principles of a smaller, weaker fighter beating a significantly physically dominant and larger fighter, I believe those days are long behind it. At the current evolution of the sport, a physically dominant wrestler who is significantly stronger and significantly more athletic than his opponent is very rarely beaten, regardless of his opponent’s possible edge in jiu-jitsu or in striking. Right now, more often than not, wrestling + size + athleticism = the win. And for those who fall into that category, most losses are to fighters who are significant submission threats, either able to threaten off their back or during the shot. Velasquez is essentially neither – while he holds a purple belt under Dave Camarillo, and I’m sure he can sink in a guillotine choke if given the opportunity, I’m not sure if it would be possible for anyone to pose any sort of serious finishing threat to the tree trunk between Lesnar’s head and chest. Add to that, Lesnar has shown the ability to entirely neutralize a significantly better grappler in Frank Mir, so I expect Velasquez to be essentially no threat on his back.

On the feet, I believe many people are expecting Velasquez to have a striking advantage and/or a speed advantage. I just don’t see it. Lesnar is “scary” fast – while he can appear plodding and hesitant, when he’s confident and attacking on the feet he’s probably as fast (or faster) and as explosive (or more explosive) as any UFC heavyweight. Velasquez will give up a four-inch reach advantage and at least a couple inches in height, which means not only does Velasquez have to be faster, he’s also got to close pretty significant additional ground to land a strike as well as to evade a strike in return.

Not only do I believe that Velasquez will have trouble in beating Lesnar to the punch, I see a significant discrepancy in power between the two. Velasquez has only one knockout on his record, a stoppage of the clearly aging and often-battered Nogueira. Velasquez wins most of his fights by TKO: overwhelming and swarming fighters to the point the referee steps in, as opposed to putting their lights out. Lesnar, who was able to withstand several clean hard-hitting blows from the behemoth Shane Carwin, is simply extremely unlikely to be knocked out by Velasquez in my opinion. On the flip side, Lesnar can absolutely turn out Velasquez’s lights whether on the feet or on the ground.

As demonstrated in his fight against Carwin, Lesnar has proven he can take a lot of punishment from someone who is clearly a much harder hitter than Velasquez. Lesnar also does a phenomenal job of utilizing his gigantic forearms and hands to cover up when an opponent does try to overwhelm him. I believe Velasquez’s only path to victory is to somehow catch Lesnar and put him on his back and overwhelm him to the point that the referee steps in – most likely in what would be an incorrect early stoppage. It goes without saying, but being in a situation where there’s very little chance you can significantly damage your opponent and you must depend on an early stoppage from the referee is not a solid way to win a fight.

I expect Lesnar to execute an intelligent game plan of putting Cain on his back, controlling him, and grinding him down. While Velasquez probably has better cardio if directly compared, having someone as massive and dominating as Lesnar on top of you for a couple rounds is going to wear out even the most elite athlete. I expect a few rounds of dominating top control from Lesnar followed up by a TKO victory in the second half of the fight. I expect Velasquez to never significantly threaten Lesnar, with this fight playing out very similarly to Lesnar vs. Mir 2 from UFC 100.

The current betting line puts Lesnar a 58 percent favorite to win this fight; I believe his chances are much, much higher. Still, it’s important to understand the concept of “edge” from a gambling perspective and understand that even if Lesnar is a great bet at the current odds, the odds are still such that Velasquez still wins this fight a reasonable percentage of the time. Just for argument’s sake, let’s say Lesnar wins this fight 70 percent of the time, so Velasquez can be expected to win 30 percent of the time. The current betting odds mean this bet would have a 20 percent edge for the player, or about the same advantage you have in blackjack when the dealer is showing a four or a five. But just as in blackjack, it’s important to understand in sports betting that having this edge – while it would make for a good bet – doesn’t guarantee a win by far. Just as the dealer can easily reveal a six and go on to make “21” with a 10, Velasquez could easily defeat Lesnar even if I’m completely correct about Lesnar’s edge in this fight.

The point I’m trying to make with the latter: you should understand these concepts as they apply to gambling, and keep your bets and bet sizes under control, no matter how much of an advantage you think you have. For more on this sort of sports betting strategy, see the series of articles in our MMA Wagering Guide, starting with MMA Wagering 101.

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