Dec. 12: The Indian Army is relocating a division of troops to North Bengal from Jammu after the security establishment has taken stock of a Chinese move into a high plateau in Bhutan named Dolam.

Major elements of the 27 Mountain Division have already moved out and among these are units of the 164 Mountain Brigade based in Kalimpong, an army headquarters source has confirmed to The Telegraph.

A Chinese move into Dolam means that Indias border with China gets distorted at Sikkims tri-point with Bhutan. It also means that Chinese forces move a few kilometres south from where they originally were. It brings them closer to North Bengals Siliguri Corridor. China has always laid claim to Dolam. There is a suspicion that it has now extended its claim line.

The Chicoms won’t try anything until after the Bejjing Olympics. And even if they do they will get there asses handed to them. However, four or five years from now might be an entirely different story.

I don’t think it would be fun at all, especially if the Indians and Vietnamese can’t keep the Chinese at bay (highly plausible scenario). The Chinese navy is today strong enough to occupy all of the islands in the South China Sea (if US does not intervene). They are just itching for an excuse to do so. The Chinese also have high ground advantage against India around that area.

No, I don’t think the Chinese will be able to get deep into India. For one thing, this is not the same Indian military that the Chinese have known. Secondly, there is no such thing as a “high ground advantage” on the Himalayas. The mountains are steep on both sides of the border. But that said, the US wouldn’t want to even risk a Chinese dominance in the Subcontinent.

Hot war or not, the first signs of things moving in that direction will see US military supplies pouring into India.

All I wanted to say was that the US will not have the option to sit back and watch.

I disagree, for instance, India’s Arunachal is definitely lower than the Chinese side. Secondly, the Chinese have no interest to “get deep” into India. No country in the world today would have such an interest I’d wager.

Stop our trade imbalance, and we’ll see massive shortages on the state side as well. Don’t think trade doesn’t work both ways. When 75% of our economy is based on consumption, I don’t think we can so easily say “stop our trade imbalance and they fall.” The Chinese and other foreigners are propping up our economy as well. Citibank just got bailed out by a bunch of Saudis asking for 11% returns.

The point is, short of outright invasion by the Chinese of US territories or bases, the US is not going to stop trade with China. And the Chinese aren’t stupid enough to repeat the Japanese.

Oh let’s not turn this into another India and China pissing contest. I was just replying to Joe that it’s really not in our interest to see China and India duking it out with each other. Even if India wins or is advantageous, it gives China an opportunity to flex some of its muscles. Like you said, how recently has China done the same? Well, the answer to that is not very recently. So let’s keep it that way.

China has already moved into the Vietnamese Paracels where it can monitor submarines in the whole South China Sea. The Vietnamese, who seem capable of holding off the Chinese on land do not have sufficient navy to defend their islands.

20
posted on 12/13/2007 3:29:17 PM PST
by arthurus
(Better to fight them OVER THERE than to have to fight them OVER HERE!)

The Chicoms certainly have intentions to do more then just flex muscles. This is a strategy Chicoms use to gain greater bargaining chip on the negotiation table. The flex their muscles, act billigerent and try to negotiate from a position of strength. What India needs to do is recognize Chinese suzerainty over Tibet or Chinese claim over Taiwan...... and begin negotiations from there. If Tibet isnt Chinese in the first place, Sikkim, Bhutan or Arunachal Pradesh cant be Chinese.

The Chicoms certainly have intentions to do more then just flex muscles. This is a strategy Chicoms use to gain greater bargaining chip on the negotiation table. The flex their muscles, act billigerent and try to negotiate from a position of strength. What India needs to do is recognize Chinese suzerainty over Tibet or Chinese claim over Taiwan...... and begin negotiations from there. If Tibet isnt Chinese in the first place, Sikkim, Bhutan or Arunachal Pradesh cant be Chinese.

“Hot war or not, the first signs of things moving in that direction will see US military supplies pouring into India.

All I wanted to say was that the US will not have the option to sit back and watch.”

I am not sure what supplies would actually pour in. India’s defense systems are hardly compatible with American systems and the logistics, the infrastructure and training required to operate and integrate American systems wont change over night. Besides America will look out for its own interests. China is a bigger business partner then India and they are a strong enemy to take on, they wont jump on India’s side so quickly. I doubt they would take such a risk.

On November 13, 2005, Chinese soldiers crossed into Bhutan under the pretext that environmental conditions had forced their retreat south from the Himalayas. The Bhutanese government allowed this incursion (after the fact) on humanitarian grounds.[citation needed] Soon after, the Chinese began building roads and bridges within Bhutanese territory. Bhutanese Foreign Minister Khandu Wangchuk took up the matter with Chinese authorities after the issue was raised in Bhutanese parliament. In response, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang of the People's Republic of China has said that the border remains in dispute (completely ignoring the original official pretext for the incursion) and that the two sides continue to work for a peaceful and cordial resolution of the dispute. An Indian intelligence officer has said that a Chinese delegation in Bhutan told the Bhutanese that they were "overreacting." The Bhutanese newspaper Kuensel has said that China might use the roads to further Chinese claims along the border.

Bhutan has no formal relations with the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom or France. This is possibly done deliberately so Bhutan is not seen as an enemy to China, these nations all being members of the United Nations Security Council.[citation needed] Informal contact with the United States is made through the U.S. embassy in New Delhi.

Yes most likely we would share Satellite intelligence and any other intelligence. As for radar, we dont use many American radars except for thw Weapon Locating Radars that the Army uses. The kind of equipment takes a lot of time before they and be deployed and used effectively, these hi-tech equipments require lot of system integration and training of personnel before they get fully operationalized.

What I think US could do however is give us aerial recon and AWAC support if at all they would want to get involved in Indo-China conflict. They would have to operate the AWAC while our fighters would receive real time info through datalink. India and US have done excercises (both Navy and Airforce) to work out the modalities and integration issues to be able to jointly coordinate in operations. I dont whats the current status and how far we have actually progressed on sorting out integrational issues but my guess would be we have fair amount of capability to jointly coordinate in military operations.
But we would still require their (US) direct involvement, not just their equipment, in order to jointly coordinate. The question is how far would they want to get involved.

I think the stakes for the US are higher in a China vs India situation than in a China vs Taiwan situation. Even from a toe-hold in the Indian ocean situation, it will be worse off for the US should China start to push downwards into India.

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