Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications

The author wishes to thank Jesse Schreger for exceptional research assistance; to thank Roel Beetsma, Carlos Alvarado, Mauricio Calani, Mauricio Cardenas, Luis Céspedes, Massimo Giuliodori, Martin Mühleisen, Claudia Bulos Ramirez, and Victoria Rodriguez for help acquiring data; Philippe Bacchetta, Roel Beetsma, Cynthia Balloch, Sebastian Bustos, Dieter Helm, Philippe Martin, Guillermo Perry, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and two anonymous referees for comments; and to thank the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard for support. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

It has recently become expected on ethics grounds that economists should disclose sources of professional income beyond that from their academic employer. Accordingly I offer the following information. (I include only compensation in excess of $1,000.)

In 2010: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, three foreign non-profit educational/research institutions, a domestic bank, a foreign bank, and two consulting firms. I wrote and presented papers for the NBER, the World Bank, and a foreign central bank. I also served as an expert witness in a legal case where the ultimate clients were financial institutions.

In 2009: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, a foreign educational institution, a bank, and five consulting firms. I wrote and presented papers for the European Central Bank and the World Bank.

In 2008: I gave talks for the International Monetary Fund, a foreign bank, three other financial institutions, two consulting firms and an educational institution. I wrote and presented papers for two think tanks, the World Bank, the NBER, and a foreign central bank. I also served as an expert witness in a legal case where the client was a financial investor.

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