Swine flu: Pandemic 'would infect four in ten Britons'

The swine flu outbreak that is now feared to have spread to more than 20
countries would infect four in ten Britons if it became a pandemic, health
officials have said.

By Matthew Moore

4:59PM BST 28 Apr 2009

The warning came as the first British sufferers of the condition were named as Iain and Dawn Askham, a newly married couple from Falkirk, central Scotland who returned from honeymoon in Mexico last week.

Their conditions are said to be improving, but doctors are monitoring possible new cases in Wiltshire, Derbyshire, Yorkshire and Wales.

The United States has announced 44 mild infections, while three people have the virus in New Zealand and six in Canada. There have been two confirmed cases in Spain and one in Israel, and fiften other countries have said they are investigating possible infections.Six people were being tested in Ireland.

The Foreign Office today revised its travel advice to Mexico to warn against all but essential journeys, prompting Britain's two biggest holiday operators to cancel their flights to the country for the next week.

Travel giant TUI, which owns Thomson and First Choice holidays, said it was suspending its services to the resort of Cancun until May 8. The firm's 2,500 holidaymakers already in the country will be brought home on scheduled flights.

Thomas Cook has cancelled all Thomas Cook and Airtours holidays to Mexico for the next seven days, resulting in the cancellation of five flights from Manchester and Gatwick. Any of its 3,000 customers who want to return early are being helped to book flights on other airlines, a spokeswoman said.

World Health Organisation (WHO) experts are warning that the swine flu virus spreading around the world now cannot be contained.

Professor Neil Ferguson, a WHO member at Imperial College, London said that the virus would likely return later in the year even if it died away in the next few weeks. "It is almost certain that... we will get a seasonal epidemic in the autumn," he said.

The WHO has raised its swine flu alert level to phase four on a scale that goes up to six, meaning the virus is now being passed between humans. The organisation's assistant-general Keiji Fukuda said this represented a "significant step towards pandemic influenza", although a pandemic was not yet inevitable.

"With the virus being widespread... closing borders or restricting travel really has very little effects in stopping the movement of this virus," he said.

NHS officials said that the virus may have spread to Wiltshire, with seven people suffering from flu-like symptoms currently undergoing tests to find out if they have the potentially lethal illness. Results were expected later today.

A "handful" of cases are also being investigated in Wales. Tony Jewell, the country's chief medical officer, said: "We should expect that there will be some confirmed cases in Wales at some point." Reported cases are also being monitored in Derbyshire and Yorkshire.

More than 1,300 people called NHS Direct yesterday with swine flu-related compaints, 238 of whom were referred to their GP for treatment. The number of people taking the service's online cold and flu self-assessment test has nearly tripled, a spokeswoman said.

Relatives of the Mr and Mrs Askham say they are responding well to treatment in isolation, but 22 people who they came into contact with since landing back in the country are being kept under observation. Seven have shown mild flu-like symptoms

It is understood that Mr Askham, 27, first began to show symptoms last Thursday, on a night out with friends.

His wife also began to feel ill and they were admitted to the infectious diseases unit of Monklands Hospital in Airdrie on Saturday.

In a statement issued on behalf of their parents, Ian and Pauline Askham and Linda and Brian Colston, by NHS Lanarkshire, the families said: "We are delighted that they continue to make good progress and they remain in good spirits.

"They were both quite shocked that the result was positive for swine flu but are relieved that their symptoms have been very mild."

They added that it was an "incredibly difficult" time for them and they were "overwhelmed" by the attention.

Mrs Askham is a healthcare assistant at Boots in Falkirk and her husband, a keen amateur footballer, is an information analyst for the utility company Scottish Power.

The couple were married at the Three Kings function suite in Falkirk three weeks ago. The Scottish Executive said they did not travel in the areas of Mexico most affected by swine flu.

Britons who have pre-booked holidays to Mexico have been advised to check their insurance policies to see if they can claim the money back, although Thomas Cook and TUI have promised to do all they can to arrange alternative trips.

Stuart and Kelly Goddard, 25 and 24, from Coventry, were due to fly out this morning from Manchester Airport to Cancun for their honeymoon before finding out that their flight had been cancelled.

"We're absolutely gutted. We were married on Saturday and have been planning this for a year-and-a-half," Mr Goddard said.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said today that the Government would take "all the action necessary" to prevent the spread of swine flu.

Speaking in the Polish capital, Warsaw, the Prime Minister insisted that Britain was well-prepared to deal with a major outbreak.

"We have been preparing for this kind of scenario for many years. Britain is among the best prepared countries in the world," he told a joint news conference with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

"We, together with the World Health Organisation and our partners in Europe and internationally, will continue to take all the urgent action that is necessary to halt the spread of this virus."

A pandemic is declared at level six. Since the alerts were introduced in 2005 it has never been higher than level three.

He said containing the disease was not feasible as it had already spread around the world.

Instead he said governments should concentrate on mitigation measures - giving people information on how to avoid catching the illness and being prepared to treat people who fall ill.

He also said there was no need to restrict travel between countries although anyone who is already ill should consult their doctor and stay at home, adding that closing borders would "cause a great deal of disruption for countries."

Fears were growing that the virus could cause a flu pandemic as a series of countries confirmed cases. Officials in Mexico – the centre of the outbreak – said there were 1,455 probable cases and 152 confirmed deaths.

In the Government's pandemic plan the worst case scenario suggests that if half the population contracted pandemic flu there could be around 709,000 deaths. Schools, sports events and concerts could be shut down to limit the spread of the illness.

Doctors who come into contact with suspected cases should wear face masks, gloves and aprons, under protocols issued by the Health Protection Agency. The WHO said the disease had ''pandemic potential'' but added that a pandemic was not "inevitable".

Anyone who feels unwell and suspects they have flu is advised to visit the NHS Direct website at www.nhsdirect.nhs.uk or call them for advice on 0845 46 47.