Category Archives: Model divergences

Beginning where we left off in our last chapter….that rain foretold here by the (affectionately) US WRF-GOOFUS models back a few days ago for the 19-21st for us only remains a possibility if you’re Canadian:

Valid at 5 PM AST, November 19th. Rainy system strikes Cal, on doorstep to AZ. You got yer subtropical jet stream crashing into the coast over southern Cal, a nice low off SFO, and plenty of rain predicted as far south as Los Angeles.Valid at the SAME TIME as the Canadian GEM model above, 5 PM AST on the 19th of November! This is a horrible prediction by our own best model, because it robs us of our rain! For rain here in the cool season, we have to have the jet stream over or to the south of us here in Arizona, and here the jet stream is over Oregon! There is no low off Frisco, either! No “Waterworld1” here.Areas of rain predicted for the 6 h preceding 5 PM AST November 19th by the US WRF-GOOFUS model. The low pressure center, rather than off Frisco, is way up there by Annette Island! Or is maybe that one inland in B C.

So, with “model divergence” like this, what’s a poor meteorologist to do? Well, here, at least, we go with the Smokers1‘ version absolutely. Look for a chance of rain here in Catalina land on the 19th-21st window, as has been suggested here a few days ago, and for that reason alone we are “staying the course” as President’s like to say. We’re not here to give you necessarily the best forecast, but rather a consistent one. So, in conclusion, look for clouds and a chance of rain around the 20th. Furthermore, to maintain consistency and build confidence in the reader by avoiding the emotional distress caused by “fluctuating forecasts”, we might be forecasting rain right up until it doesn’t happen!

—–Temperature note, or “Egad!”———

Got an e-mail from local pal, Mark A., that the -27 F recorded in Wyoming a couple of days ago was the lowest temperature ever recorded in the State for the whole month of November! How could that be? It was only 12-13th of the month! Incredible. Weather, global warming or not, are truly amazing!

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Yesterday’s clouds

Here are a couple shots of the Cirrus clouds we had yesterday and thge day before, so the header is not accurate. Not much going on lately, but those Cirrus clouds did make the sky pretty at times before racing off toward the eastern horizon.

6:39 AM November 12th. Cirrus clouds add color to the morning sunrise.9:46 AM. But which day? This is a surprise quiz for those aspiring to cloud mavenhood.

9:16 AM. Yesterday or the day before?

The End

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1Movie buffs of course, recall the great Kevin Costner movie, “Waterworld” and know that the villainous “Smokers” in that movie were Costner’s subtle nod to Canadians who smoke a lot. Pretty funny, really. I can’t believe all the pop culture information you get here! Its pretty incredible.