Friday, January 11, 2013

Playoff Preview: Packers at 49ers

The 49ers are known for their running game, running quarterback, and a dominant front seven defense. The Packers are known for their big play offense, MVP quarterback, and a solid defense led by LB Clay Matthews. Neither is an extreme passing or running team, but they are as different as any two teams in the NFL.

However, their results have been almost identical this season. Football Outsiders has the 49ers ranked as the 4th best team this season, and the Packers are just a couple percentage points behind at No. 5. Both teams enter the game in relative good health. The ongoing leg injuries of WR Jordy Nelson will probably keep him less than 100% and DE Justin Smith should be limited by a torn tendon that will require surgery in the offseason. Smith's injury has the potential to make a bigger impact, and the 49ers have played worse since he suffered the injury mid-game against the Patriots, but I don't want to take anything away from the rest of their team. The odds makers have the 49ers as favorites by 2.5, which essentially rates the game as a push while giving the 49ers a slight home field advantage.

Looking back over the last eight games, also known as the QB Colin Kaepernick era, here's how the 49ers have fared:

Opponent

Scored

Allowed

Result

Opp. Win Per.

FO Rank

Rams

24

24

T

0.469

15

Bears

32

7

W

0.625

6

Saints

31

21

W

0.438

19

Rams

13

16

L

0.469

15

Dolphins

27

13

W

0.438

21

Patriots

41

34

W

0.750

3

Seahawks

13

42

L

0.688

1

Cardinals

27

13

W

0.313

26

Total

208

170

5-2-1

0.524

13

They played a pretty strong schedule of opponents and came away with a winning record. Their results were better in the first half of the season, but it also included a couple of blow outs against the Jets and Bills, so their points scored and against were much better than they were against actual playoff teams.

Here's how the Packers did over the same time period:

Opponent

Scored

Allowed

Result

Opp. Win Per.

FO Rank

Cardinals

31

17

W

0.313

26

Lions

24

20

W

0.250

16

Giants

10

38

L

0.563

7

Vikings

23

14

W

0.625

14

Lions

27

20

W

0.250

16

Bears

21

13

W

0.625

6

Titans

55

7

W

0.375

30

Vikings

37

37

L

0.625

14

Total

228

166

6-2

0.453

16

The overall results are more impressive but padded by a blow out against the lowly Titans. Swap out an average NFL team for the Titans, and the Packers played a similar quality of teams as the 49ers over their last eight games.

The comparisons run even deeper. While the Packers looked awful against the Giants, so did the 49ers against the Seahawks, and each team has a bad road loss in their ledger. The Packers didn't shine against lesser teams like the Cardinals and Lions, but the 49ers had two unimpressive games against the Rams. You can pick a favorite, but it would be hard to find two remaining playoff opponents with similar second half results.

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About Me

I can be reached via email at acmepackingcompany@gmail.com. I was born and raised in Wisconsin and I've been a fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1980. I moved away from Wisconsin many years ago, which led me to start this blog in 2003. It won't be updated with any breaking news stories, or any NFL exclusives. If you're interested in what I've got to say about some Packers news, this is where I say it.