And LaVorgna might not be done hacking his expectations for the
quarter.

From LaVorgna:

[Monday's] February consumer spending figures were weaker
than what we had expected. While December real
consumer spending was revised up a couple of tenths, this
was bookmarked by downward revisions to November and
January. Instead of running near 4% for the quarter
as we had thought, it appears that consumption is going to
run significantly less than that when the advance Q1 GDP
report is published on April 29. Surprisingly,
household spending on utilities is running
significantly below what the Fed’s utility production
series, an excellent proxy of the former, suggests ...
For now, though, we are reducing our estimate of Q1
consumption to 2%, which has the effect of lowering our forecast
of Q1 GDP by 70 bps to 1.7% from 2.4% ...
Unfortunately we may not yet be done pruning our estimate
of Q1 real economic output because there is a risk that the
February international trade data, which are released on Thursday
could be disappointing.

Here's the chart from Deutsche Bank showing the discrepancy in
what industrial production figures indicate and what Monday's PCE
data showed on consumption.

And so while these numbers will, in LaVorgna's view, eventually
square, our first reading on Q1 GDP in about a month is likely to
disappoint.