The peripheral countries are at very different stages of economic recovery and rebalancing. Growth has returned and private and public balances have improved. Unemployment and public debt levels remain high, whilst part of the rebalancing may just be cyclical.

Monetary policies in the eurozone and US are on the verge of parting ways. For the world economy as a whole, there is a risk that this monetary divergence will fuel external imbalances among the largest economies.

Most probably, the majority of the British people will vote in favour of EU membership in the Brexit referendum. A Brexit would be less favourable than retention of EU membership for both the UK and the EU due to the economic and political effects.

According to the preliminary estimate from Statistics Netherlands regarding third quarter growth in 2015, Dutch GDP grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. This figure was lower than we expected.

House prices and sales will increase this year and next, due to the economic recovery, the good affordability and high consumer confidence. We expect this to be stronger than the issue of negative equity and the tightening of lending criteria.