Week 4 Preview

Finally beat the Formula this week. Although it’s still up big on me for the year:

Straight up (Big-Games):

Me = 14-6

Formula = 13-7

ATS (Big Games):

Me = 6-12

Formula = 6-13

Straight up (all-Games):

Me = 99-40 (71%)

Formula = 104-38 (73%)

ATS:

Me = 59-73 (45%)

Formula = 71-63 (52%)

This week we have 2 ranked match-ups, and two others that should be a factor in divisional/conference races. The other 2 are just the best of their respective groups. Not a great week.

Big Games:

16 Notre Dame @ Wake Forest – Last year Notre Dame won in a shoot-out. Both offenses are struggling this year and Notre Dame’s defense is playing well and Wake’s is pretty scrappy. So I don’t think we will be seeing a replay of last year. What will probably make the difference is if Wake is able to do some damage in the run game. If they can, then they can keep it close. If ND shuts it down, then this will end up a blow-out.

My Pick: ND 41 WF 24 (ND -7.5)

Formula: ND SU (ND -7.5)

TCU @ 22 Texas – TCU has won easily the last 2 years (24-7 and 31-9). Texas seems to be a better team this year so I don’t think we will see a replay. It’s also in Austin and Texas will be ready to go. Texas had a big upset last week at home against USC. They will be looking to pull off another upset here and put their foot into the Big12/Playoff race.

My Pick: TCU 24 Texas 21 (PUSH)

Formula: Texas SU (Texas +3)

Wisconsin @ Iowa – Wisconsin has won the last 2 years (38-14 and 17-9). Iowa’s defense has been playing lights out this year and Wisconsin’s has been suspect. Wisconsin has one of the better Rushing Offenses in the nation, but haven’t looked as good as many expected. Iowa’s offense has been abysmal. Wisconsin will look to get it’s ground game up and running at full capacity here. Likely come out with a chip on shoulder after last weeks upset loss to BYU. The winner will take control of the Big Ten West

My Pick: Wisc 21 – Iowa 14 (Wisc -3.5)

Formula: Wisc SU (Iowa +3.5)

8 Stanford @ 23 Oregon – Stanford has destroyed Oregon the last 2 years (49-7 and 52-27). Oregon’s defense is playing better this year than it has and Stanford’s offense has not gotten on track. So I don’t think we’ll be seeing Stanford score in the 40’s. Maybe not 30’s. The key will be how much Oregon can get their offense on track against a very stout Stanford defense. A win here could put Stanford squarely in the thick of the Playoff race.

My Pick: Stan 28 Oreg 21 (Stan -2)

Formula: Stan SU (Stan -2)

25 Texas A&M @ 1 Alabama – Alabama has steamrolled all comers so far. Now that they have a QB that can damage opposing defenses, instead of just being a game manager, they look unstoppable. TAMU’s defense has not been great thus far, so they will have to rely on their offense being able to put up some points on Alabama. No easy task. They have been unable to break 20 points the last 2 years (in Alabama wins). Don’t think this year will be much different. Although I think their defense will hold Bama to fewer points than anyone else.

My Pick: Bama 41 TAMU 17 (Tamu +27)

Formula: Bama SU (Tamu +27)

FAU @ 15 UCF – In what looked preseason like a game that could go into the 90’s total, FAU’s offense has gotten off to a sputtering start (not bad, not great). UCF has looked every bit the team people expected. This is at the Bounce House on a Friday night. FAU’s defense has been pretty porous so far against quality opponents. UCF’s defense has looked improved over last year.