7/10/06

"The best qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory. "--Marquis of Halifax,This quote is very applicable to statistical models which require long periods of past data in order to be reliably estimated.

"Some things are so unexpected that no one is prepared for them. "--Leo Rosten in Rome Wasn't Burned in a DayThis is particularly relevent to non-stationary processes such as the the climate and the business world. For example, the appearance of the Antarctic ozone hole in the mid 1970s was quite a surprise.

"An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. "--After Andrew LangCareful application of statistics is essential for obtaining and judging predictions and can provide much insight into the assesment of skill in the predictions.

"An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today. "--Evan EsarPost-analysis of predictions is often very revealing especially concerning model weaknesses.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."--Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in PhysicsThis quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. It's often easy to find a model that fits the past data well--perhaps too well!--but quite another matter to find a model that correctly identifies those features of the past data which will be replicated in the future.

(A Surviving Globalization Consultant) was born in 1961 in Bern and grew up in Athens. In1985, graduated from Surrey University with a Tourism Management BSc (Hons).In 1998, graduated from LMTB under Freie Universitat Berlin, with a Diploma Lasers in Medicine. His professional career was started in the private sector and at the same time he created his first consulting company D+G Consultants Inc. Worked for major multinationals in Greece and abroad (FMCGs / Pharmaceuticals / Tourism). Demetrios Georgalas, having established also Travelling 2 Greece a destination management company, while with the D+G Consultants working in the areas of BTL and special marketing projects. He is activated except from Greece in the Balkans and in Turkey, consulting his clientele with new innovative proposals. Apart from his enterprising activities, he dabbles at blogging, travelling and cooking while he is married and has two children.In conclusion Demetrios Georgalas is an Athenian, Greek, Agnostic, Traveller, & Liberal he likes sci-fi, photography, blogging, travelling and cooking and if you like fascism or any kind of dogma, keep out!