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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED NOV 09 1994
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LOCATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
RIGHT ON THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NICARAGUAN COAST. LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1005 MB...BUT WAS NOT MEASURED IN THE
CENTER... AND WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KT. SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO
INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE
CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND THEN EMERGING OVER THE NORTH COAST OF
HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. LATEST GFDL MODEL BRINGS
THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HUGGING THE COAST...AND
STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM INTO A STORM AND A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. IF THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY AND
MOVES OVER WATERS...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
INDICATED BY THE GFDL...WHICH HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO OVERPREDICT
THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS SEASON.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND BAM-MEDIUM
PLACING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWEST AND NOT FAR FROM SWAN ISLAND IN 72
HOURS.
IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW AMOUNTS
TO NEAR 18 INCHES.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 13.1N 83.6W 30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT 10/0600Z 13.6N 83.7W 30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.5N 84.0W 25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.5N 84.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 85.0W 30 KTS
72HR VT 12/1800Z 18.0N 85.0W 30 KTS
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