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Why Russia and Iran avoiding war with Israel?

Israel can do anything to Syria that it considers necessary to protect its own security and interests without fear of reactions beyond the predictable, or reactions that it can deal with and bear the consequences of. This is because Israel knows the ceiling for the responses of the active parties in Syria, both Russia and Iran. Moscow’s response to the Israeli air strike which killed some Iranians in Syria was simply to inform the Israeli ambassador of Russia’s alarm at the matter. Iran, meanwhile, did no more than fire a few missiles that can be described as more of a warning than a deterrent or revenge.

Israel has crossed every red line in Syria, while Russia and Iran have not set any red lines for confronting Israel since their involvement in Syria began. I am referring to hypothetical lines, such as Israeli planes flying in Syrian air space or hitting the regime and Iranian military bases. With the exception of the Khmeimim Air Base, there is nowhere off limits to Israeli strikes, including Damascus International Airport and all the military and security sites that Tel Aviv considers to be a source of danger.

It is easy to find a number of theoretical explanations for Russia’s behaviour towards Israel, which make its reaction appear to be so lenient. This includes the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Moscow, the presence of one million Russian Jews in Israel, and the fact that Russia does not want to distract itself from its main goal in Syria, which is to impose itself as a partner with weight to confront America and control the course of events and their consequences. All of this is for the purpose of achieving a well-known goal for Moscow, which is to put Russia in an advanced international position, beyond a regional force and becoming a centre for international decisions.

Despite this, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s keenness to achieve his goal of taking his country to the desired position has not been hindered by any considerations or calculations. Although he has economic relations and interests with Europe and Turkey, in many instances, since his involvement in the Syrian war, he has dealt with these parties based on a cliff-edge policy. He severed relations with Turkey and put it on the brink of war, while his relations with major European countries like France, Britain and Germany have also deteriorated.

The matter is not much different for Iran, although its considerations are of another type. Tehran is not interested in confronting Israel under any circumstances. If it wasn’t for the media pressure and the embarrassment it faced in front of its people and the supporters of the “resistance” alliance, it wouldn’t have had to fire a single bullet at Israel.

Iran is acting according to its assessment of being on the verge of real and complete control over the region, especially in light of its allies’ sweeping results in the parliamentary elections in Iraq and Lebanon. This puts Tehran in a politically dominant position, and so it is interested in preserving this situation and not risking it by engaging in a war with Israel that could change the balance of power in a manner that does not serve its interests.

What matters to Iran in Syria is stabilising the Assad regime and not exposing it to any danger that might risk that stability. A war with Israel would be considered one such threat, especially after more than one Israeli official has said that Assad’s head would be the price of Iran’s use of Syrian territory in any war against Israel.

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JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA – JANUARY 18: AB de Villiers of South Africa hits another six during the 2nd Momentum ODI between South Africa and West Indies at Bidvest Wanderers Stadium on January 18, 2015 in Johannesburg, South Africa. (Photo by Duif du Toit/Gallo Images/Getty Images)