Macron’s win puts pressure on Poland, Hungary to align with EU

New French president Emmanuel Macron (C) is accompanied by the Chief of the Defence Staff French Army General Pierre de Villiers (L behind) as they observe a moment of silence after a wreath laying ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe's Unknown Soldier monument, following his official inauguration, in Paris, France, 14 May 2017. [Abd Rabbo Ammar/Pool/EPA]

While the election of Emmanuel Macron as French president with a vision of closer European Union integration was a relief to much of Europe, for Poland and Hungary it fanned fears of losing influence.

Poland has been the most vocal among eastern EU members fearing that their wealthier western neighbours, keen to deepen cooperation among themselves, will erode the single market that has been the biggest benefit of membership in the east and, in shifting power westward, reduce financial support for less wealthy countries.

The powerful head of Poland’s ruling party yesterday (8 February) warned that any moves toward a two-speed European Union would lead to the bloc falling apart.

Macron’s arrival, and his support for the “multi-speed” Europe idea that has been gaining traction in Germany and other EU countries since Britain’s decision to quit the bloc, make it more likely that a key decision-making circle could exclude the former communist capitals of Budapest and Warsaw.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel seemed yesterday (7 February) to win promises of closer cooperation from Poland’s Eurosceptic leaders, during a visit to Warsaw to discuss reforms essential for the EU to tackle mounting divisions over its future role.

It would also thwart their efforts to shift power from Brussels back to member states.

Underlining their concerns, Polish officials have accused Macron of double standards and of contravening the spirit of the single market by calling for reforms of rules on moving workers within the bloc.

“But an EU division, a lasting division, is the worst of possible prescriptions, because the first victim of such division would be the single market.”

A decision by Whirlpool to shift a tumble drier factory from France to Poland took center-stage in France’s presidential campaign last month, with Macron’s far-right opponent Marine Le Pen saying she would nationalise the plant.

French presidential frontrunner Emmanuel Macron vowed yesterday (26 April) not to “yield a centimetre” to Marine Le Pen after being booed and heckled with chants backing his far-right rival during a chaotic visit to an under-threat factory in the nation’s rustbelt.

Macron, an ardent defender of globalisation as well as European integration, refused to be drawn into promising the workers he would prevent the company moving its production.

But he did say Warsaw was exploiting differences in labour costs, which could not be tolerated. He alluded to the problem of social dumping – a hot-button issue in France – which refers to companies employing cheaper labour from other EU countries or moving production to lower-wage countries.

“Discrimination”

Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told Poland’s state broadcaster that this amounted to “discrimination”, and others said Macron was undermining the principles of the single market.

“It cannot be that when Poland is an export market then it is good, but when it attracts foreign investment, including from France … that’s not good any more,” Morawiecki said this week.

Szymanski said that Macron’s win could be good for Poland but that Warsaw worried “whether we are not being excluded from a debate on protectionism and the single market”.

“We may want to change it, but we do not want to abandon it,” he said.

Macron’s enthusiasm for a common eurozone budget and finance ministry – although, crucially, viewed with scepticism in Berlin – has also raised fears among eastern countries that they could lose out on EU funds.

Commission Vice-President Jyrki Katainen reminded the Visegrád countries today (28 March) that the solidarity they expect from the EU’s cohesion policy also applies to the refugee crisis.

Neither Poland nor Hungary is in any hurry to adopt the euro; both say they need the flexibility of a national exchange rate in difficult times.

“If in the end there is a eurozone budget, that means there will be less money for countries that are not eurozone members,” Dariusz Rosati, a member of the European Parliament member for Poland’s opposition Civic Platform, told Polish radio this month.

Poland is the largest beneficiary of EU funds and is due to receive €77.6 billion in the current 2014-20 budgetary period for infrastructure projects, its poorer regions and improving the competitiveness of its economy.

While a common fiscal policy may still be some way off, the notion of a Union of countries “acting at different paces and intensity where necessary” was mentioned in the EU’s 60th-anniversary Rome Declaration, reflecting the desire of the six founding members, including France and Germany, for faster integration.

Poland, which lost a diplomatic campaign to oust its former premier Donald Tusk from his post as European Council president, has now accused the EU of “cheating” and announced a “negative” policy towards Brussels.

Hendrik Hansen, head of the International and European Politics department at Andrassy University in Budapest, said a two-speed Europe was becoming more likely, “and with Macron, the Franco-German ‘tandem’ as a driving force of the EU will probably become more important”.

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“Hungary’s stance on a two-speed Europe has been consistent … this would basically mean the end of the EU,” Szabolcs Takacs, Hungarian state secretary for European affairs, told Reuters last week.

A source close to Macron told Reuters on Wednesday that the idea behind reforming the eurozone was not to exclude countries from joining.

“It is to make sure that those who will join, and there will be others, join a functioning eurozone,” the source said.

“Their (Eastern European countries’) worry in general is that it would fragment the single market, but that’s not the aim. The aim is to say that the eurozone is not properly equipped to face a possible future crisis.”

Poland and Hungary have, however, also fallen foul of western EU countries with their own policies, which Macron has chosen to highlight.

The measures to address the migration crisis introduced by individual member states or groups of states have been more effective than the Commission’s action, a Hungarian high official said yesterday (13 June).

Separately, the European Commission accuses Poland’s government of undermining democracy, especially through an overhaul of its top court and moves to bring the public broadcaster and judiciary under more direct control.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said he was committed to the EU and accused US billionaire George Soros of “attacking” his country yesterday (26 April) as he defended a law that could close down a university founded by the philanthropist.

In his campaign, Macron said the EU should be as tough on infringement of civil liberties as it was on excessive budget deficits, although the sanctions that he called for against Poland would be unlikely to secure the unanimous backing they need.

In congratulating Macron on his election, both Poland and Hungary stressed the need to talk about the future of the EU.

Poland invited Macron to visit, and Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said this week that Warsaw was expecting him to “leave his pre-election rhetoric” behind and explain his ideas on how to reform the EU in person.