How Britain would vote if the referendum were re-run

Across all respondents, excluding don’t knows, remain leads leave by 51% to 49%. However, the same ratio of responses was seen in 2016; that is, the sample had a slight remain bias against the result of the referendum. Opinion polls before the referendum also underestimated the leave vote.

How Brexit views are shifting and becoming more polarised among some groups of voters

The change from 2016 is against respondents who say they voted then and remember, and are prepared to say, which way they voted. For this reason, the leave and remain percentages in this section do not add up to 100. For example, in the student case, much of the new support for remain seems to arise from those who did not (or could not) vote in 2016.

Full results

If there were another EU referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?

The poll reflects earlier research that shows sentiment is shifting toward remain, but not by much. In many cases, opinions among polarised groups – particularly younger people and students as opposed to older or retired people – have hardened. The few substantial shifts will be interesting to party campaign offices: Tory voters have become more Brexit-friendly, and Labour voters more pro-EU since the referendum, and the north of England is now more anti-Brexit than the south.

Summary

Total

Gender

Male

Female

Age

18-24

25-34

35-64

65-74

75+

Ethnicity

White

Non-white

Working status

Full-time

Part-time

Not working

Retired

Student

Social class

AB

C1

C2

DE

Region

Scotland

Wales

North

Midlands

South

Voting intention

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Ukip

Other

Do you think the public should have the chance to take a final decision on whether or not to leave the EU in another referendum when the outcome of the negotiation is known?

In demographic terms it is chiefly groups who say they would vote remain in a re-run referendum who express significant support for another referendum on the final deal: the young, students and people in Scotland. But again, party politics is significant; a large majority of Labour voters say they support a referendum on the outcome of negotiations.

Summary

Total

Gender

Male

Female

Age

18-24

25-34

35-64

65-74

75+

Ethnicity

White

Non-white

Working status

Full-time

Part-time

Not working

Retired

Student

Social class

AB

C1

C2

DE

Region

Scotland

Wales

North

Midlands

South

Voting intention

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Ukip

Other

What impact do you think Brexit will have on the British economy?

An interesting general nuance is that people feel the impact on the economy will be greater – for good or ill – than the impact on their own finances. Indeed, Tories, Ukip voters, and the elderly or retired all seem to feel strongly optimistic for the economy (even if they see less personal impact).

Summary

Total

Gender

Male

Female

Age

18-24

25-34

35-64

65-74

75+

Ethnicity

White

Non-white

Working status

Full-time

Part-time

Not working

Retired

Student

Social class

AB

C1

C2

DE

Region

Scotland

Wales

North

Midlands

South

Voting intention

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Ukip

Other

What impact do you think Brexit will have on your personal finances?

There is little evidence of a Brexit-at-any-cost brigade. Most of the groups who tend toward leave believe the impact on them will be positive or neutral. Conversely, Lib Dems, the young and students, who feel their finances will be worst hit, are the groups most likely to support remain or a pre-exit referendum.

Summary

Total

Gender

Male

Female

Age

18-24

25-34

35-64

65-74

75+

Ethnicity

White

Non-white

Working status

Full-time

Part-time

Not working

Retired

Student

Social class

AB

C1

C2

DE

Region

Scotland

Wales

North

Midlands

South

Voting intention

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Ukip

Other

What impact do you think Brexit will have on the way of life in Britain today in general?

This is the question that gets at the culture-war roots of Brexit. Across most groups, the impact on 'the British way of life' is expected to be more negative than positive; non-white, Scottish and Labour voters feel this most strongly. Tory and Ukip voters and the elderly are among the few groups who believe our 'way of life' will be improved.

Summary

Total

Gender

Male

Female

Age

18-24

25-34

35-64

65-74

75+

Ethnicity

White

Non-white

Working status

Full-time

Part-time

Not working

Retired

Student

Social class

AB

C1

C2

DE

Region

Scotland

Wales

North

Midlands

South

Voting intention

Con

Lab

Lib Dem

Ukip

Other

Source: ICM. The regional and full results show percentage of respondents who gave one of the answers shown