Almost Total Recall

http://www.NewsAndOpinion.com |
The Democratic presidential candidates can't
catch a break. They have been campaigning approximately forever, they have
met in debates and forums more than 20 times, and most people still can't
name a single one of them.

Out in California, on the other hand, where citizens eventually
will vote on whether to recall their governor, name recognition is no
problem.

Everybody knows that Arnold Schwarzenegger is running for
governor, and because of his bodybuilding and acting career, he enjoys a
huge advantage over the other 134 candidates on the ballot.

I recently flew to Fresno, Calif., to hear Schwarzenegger speak
to schoolchildren, and as I walked through the airport, I noticed a
Terminator 2 pinball machine -- yes, they still play pinball in Fresno --
that featured a large color picture of Schwarzenegger.

There was no pinball machine featuring Schwarzenegger's leading
opponents: Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante or Republican State Sen. Tom
McClintock. True, Schwarzenegger was depicted on the game as being
half-human and half-machine, but publicity, as they say, is publicity.

The chaotic California race was thrown even deeper into
pandemonium on Monday, when the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that
the vote should not take place on Oct. 7, as scheduled, because major
population centers in California still use punch-card ballots, the kind they
used in Florida that led to all those hanging chads.

The ruling was by a three-member panel, and the panel stayed its
own order for seven days to allow an appeal to the full 11-member Ninth
Circuit Court or directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, the same court that
decided the Florida controversy.

The election could be delayed until the regular March 3, 2004,
California presidential primary, when new voting machines will be in place.

This would almost certainly help California's governor, Gray
Davis, a Democrat, since the Democratic presidential race might be a lot
hotter then and presumably will draw Democrats to the polls, while President
Bush is currently running unopposed, and so Republicans might not come out.

It also removes one of Schwarzenegger's advantages: The recall
was supposed to be a quick race that was not going to get bogged down in
issues or a lot of debates. Schwarzenegger has accepted only one debate
invitation -- one in which the candidates will get the questions in advance.

But if the recall election is delayed until March, can
Schwarzenegger really refuse to meet his opponents face-to-face time and
time again? Can he really avoid making and defending detailed policy
statements on the major issues?

His campaign already has run into unexpected problems. Polls
show him trailing the far less colorful, but equally determined, Bustamante.
Then, McClintock, who is liked by conservatives, refused to drop out in
favor of Schwarzenegger. The latter is especially important. Schwarzenegger
wanted McClintock out before 2 million absentee ballots were placed in the
mail, but that happened last week and McClintock is not only still in, but
insisting he will never bow to the Terminator.

The Schwarzenegger camp is being brave about it, but they fear
the arithmetic: If there is one prominent Democrat, Bustamante, running
against two prominent Republicans, Schwarzenegger and McClintock, the
Republican vote could be split and the Democrat could win.

"We can win with the current field, but there is no question the
math gets simpler if the field continues to consolidate around Arnold," Rob
Stutzman, Schwarzenegger's spokesman, says. "We're confident that at the end
of the day, Sen. McClintock will do the right thing and not imperil a
Republican victory."

But a bigger peril to a Republican victory may be the woman's
vote in a state where women make up 52 percent of likely voters. According
to a recent Field Poll, Schwarzenegger leads Bustamante narrowly among men,
but trails him by a whopping 13 points among women. Why? One reason may be
the violence in some Schwarzenegger movies, but another may be some of
Schwarzenegger's recent comments, such as an interview in Entertainment
Weekly dated July 11, in which he talks about his movie "Terminator 3: Rise
of the Machines" and says, "How many times do you get away with this -- to
take a woman, grab her upside down and bury her face in a toilet bowl?"

One time too many from a political standpoint.

The California election is confusing because it is really two
elections. Question One asks voters whether they want to recall Davis as
governor. A simple majority will determine his fate. Question Two asks
voters to select among 135 names for his replacement. All that is needed to
win here is a plurality. In other words, Davis could get 49.99 percent of
the vote on Question One and lose his job to a person who gets 30 percent of
the vote on Question Two.

Unfair? Especially since Davis was re-elected only last November
and no charges of any kind have been brought, let alone proved, against him?
His campaign sure thinks so.

"Recalls were designed for malfeasance or criminality, not for
bad economies and budgets shortfalls," says Davis spokesman Peter Ragone.

On Monday, Davis was asked about the appeals court decision that
could delay the election. "This recall has been like a roller coaster," he
said. "It has more surprises than you can possibly imagine."

And I get a funny feeling that, California being California,
more could be on the way.

Every weekday JewishWorldReview.com publishes what many in Washington
and in the media consider "must reading." Sign up for the daily JWR update. It's free. Just click here.