posted at 10:11 pm on March 13, 2014 by Mary Katharine Ham

CLEARWATER, Fla. — For Democrats hoping to claim a prized House seat in a swing district, Alex Sink seemed a shining candidate: a moderate, business-minded banker and former candidate for governor with ample experience in running a big race and raising money for it.

But in the end, Tuesday’s special election showed that her campaign could not outrun the tsunami of advertisements tying her to President Obama’s health care law. And, just as important, Ms. Sink was unable to step out of Mr. Obama’s shadow. Although he won twice in Pinellas County, where Tuesday’s vote took place, his approval ratings in Florida were a liability this year.

Ms. Sink, 65, lost by 1.9 percentage points to the Republican, David Jolly, 41, a lobbyist whose former boss Representative C. W. Bill Young held the seat for four decades until he died in October.

The defeat was devastating at a time when Democrats are desperate to change the prevailing story line that 2014 could cost them the Senate, with the House already out of reach.

Tuesday’s special election underscored three persistent themes likely to play out around the country: Republicans are more motivated than Democrats, attacks on the unpopular health care law will dominate many races, and the limitless flood of outside money can easily transform local races into national ones.

Maybe it was the White House freaking out on Monday that tipped them off:

As early as Monday, the White House political director, David Simas, expressed anxiety about the race, phoning reporters to pre-emptively play down the health law as a factor, something that Democratic leaders continued to do on Wednesday.

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It’s going to be a bad cycle for Democrats no matter what they do. Kind of like 2006 was for the GOP. Libs can fight and thrash and spin, but it’s like swimming against a rip tide. No matter what you do, you’re getting pulled out to sea regardless. The only difference is that you’re exhausted when the shark eats you.

Democrats should sit back, relax, let whatever happens in November happen, then plan for 2016.

Serious question. I looked briefly at her campaign website, which has an “issues” page that says approximately nothing about her positions on actual issues that people care about. From the rest of the site, I gleaned that she is pro-abortion and she hates conservatism (thinks it is “extreme”). That’s about it.

Republicans are more motivated than Democrats, attacks on the unpopular health care law will dominate many races, and the limitless flood of outside money can easily transform local races into national ones.

Actual Q1: Please list the state in which you reside, the Congressional District in which you reside, the name of your district’s current Congresspersoncritter, and the names of both of the current Senators from this state.

Not in a purplish district in a special election with low turnout, and with a third-party libertarian syphoning a lot of conservative votes from the R candidate, not to mention that it’s a district that went for Obama in the last two presidential elections. This is why the Ds have their panties in a wad over this election, as well they should, and why there was no mention at all on Jolly’s win by ABC, CBS, and NBC.

Then again, if I were running the show, there would be at least 4-5K votes that could be “found” at the last minute in every single race this fall, maybe 40-50K in the Senate races. Fight fire with fire.

If it is true that Obamacare is what will propel the GOP this election cycle (and I think it is the only thing that can since the R’s can’t find their own a$$ with both hands), it would seem that the D’s are making a big mistake by continually kicking this can down the road. It just seems unlikely to get any more popular; if not, they will be bludgeoned with it again and again…Maybe they think the longer it is around, the more people will get used to it, but I imagine the worst is yet to come for a larger swath of the country (think group plan participants), which suggests the opposite…

Tuesday’s special election underscored three persistent themes likely to play out around the country:

1) Republicans are more motivated than Democrats,

2) attacks on the unpopular health care law will dominate many races, and

3)
the limitless flood of outside money can easily transform local races into national ones.

.
Interesting this thread isn’t drawing more comments. IAC, unspinning the NYT spin by the numbers:

1) Pissed off people are more motivated than L.I.V’s – kind of a fatal flaw in the “L.I.V. majority” concept is the long established fact that once low expectations voters are satisfied it’s nearly impossible to keep them turning out at the polls – they KNOW Zero’s got their back for almost three years still, time to chill.

2) If you are running against an incumbent Democrat, this election cycle SHOULD be the equivalent of “clubbing baby seals” – Obamacare is the overall apocalypse but after Sink there will be damn few D’s trying to defend it … so you punch them with economic stagnation and loss of the American Dream; when the try to counter that blow hit them with supporting a hypocritical President who has more than TRIPLED the levels of surveillance under Bush. The list should be endless and the answers, questions and ZINGERS prepped long in advance.

3) The “limitless money” is on the Democrats’ side – and it is time to beat them to death with the “kickbacks from the TBTF” and the public employee unions. Ask the Democratic incumbent WHY government service pays so MUCH better than private industry? Why are bonuses being paid to HHS executives involved in the largest public debacle of ALL time?

The “red meat” is ALL on the side of the folks who chose to run AGAINST the Democrats … presuming they have the stones to use it and DON’T have K Street consultants telling them to be “moderate in all things”.

Then again, if I were running the show, there would be at least 4-5K votes that could be “found” at the last minute in every single race this fall, maybe 40-50K in the Senate races. Fight fire with fire.

Then again, if I were running the show, there would be at least 4-5K votes that could be “found” at the last minute in every single race this fall, maybe 40-50K in the Senate races. Fight fire with fire.

Tuesday’s special election underscored three persistent themes likely to play out around the country: Republicans are more motivated than Democrats, attacks on the unpopular health care law will dominate many races, and the limitless flood of outside money can easily transform local races into national ones.

The problem for the Dems in losing the Senate is that Harry Reid can no longer block bills for even being voted on. Right now the Dems can run against the “Do nothing Congress” and the “obstructionist” Republicans, but with a Republican controlled Senate passing House bills, even though they are vetoed, the message changes from opposition to the party of “No” to a battle between a united Congress and an unpopular president. Think of the capture of the Senate as preparing the battlespace for 2016.

Amen, brother. Those who cast gummint as the grand savior should go hide in the wilderness for forty years. That, and Debbie Wash-it-down-with Schlitz proclaiming Dems will run on Obammycare in 2014? Nope,I think Obammycare will run on the Dems in 2014.
Pure schadenreude, brother.

Wow. Just wow. That sure seems to be a Muslim guy who is among the missing on that plane based on the Facebook comments. I don’t belong to Facebook so I don’t know how that site works, but it seemed like he only had two other pictures along with the Twin Towers of Asia. One was him looking pretty serious, the other looked like some Islamic quote, maybe from the Koran or something. Would love to know what it said.

It this is one of the guys with the stolen passports, sure looks suspicious to me.

The Democrats will have to start paying for libertarian votes as well as their own. It will be more expensive, but worth it in the short term. In the long run though they’ll be propagating an ideology that is largely opposed to everything they stand for, like legalized theft and statism.

Run it without the “Libertarian” and see what happens. I’d bet we’re going to see a lot of three party races this tie around – libertarians with suddenly deep pockets.
oldroy on March 13, 2014 at 10:18 PM

Tired of a Republican strategy against Democrat shenanigans to be shaking our fist at the sky….how about some well funded Green Party and Socialist candidates …. We could turn Madison WI red

The NYT (and the Progressive Liberal Democrat party) would like to encourage the other side to focus only on the failures and the ills of Obamacare. That would be a mistake that they would embrace.

What Conservatives need to do is to combine the criticism with their own plan for making the health insurance system…and health care generally…more efficient and as affordable as possible while also reminding the voting public of how significantly the Progressive Liberals in office lied to the public the last time around about the facts of Obamacare.

Conserviatives must point out the fraud perpetrated on the public by the Progressive Liberals which renders them unfit for continuing in office, while offering plans for a better, more opportunistic (for the public) health care system.

The problem for the Dems in losing the Senate is that Harry Reid can no longer block bills for even being voted on. Right now the Dems can run against the “Do nothing Congress” and the “obstructionist” Republicans, but with a Republican controlled Senate passing House bills, even though they are vetoed, the message changes from opposition to the party of “No” to a battle between a united Congress and an unpopular president. Think of the capture of the Senate as preparing the battlespace for 2016.

Fred 2 on March 13, 2014 at 11:42 PM

You nailed it, “Fred 2″! This is what I’ve been trying to tell folks. Sure, I realize that Obama would STILL veto any and every bill presented to him by a Republican-controlled Congress; however, IF the GOP retakes the Senate AND maintains control of the House, it would then greatly change the narrative of the political process.

For example, no longer would good legislation passed by the House become DOA in the Senate (as is the current situation as it exists with Harry Reid not even allowing House bills to be presented for a vote). House bills would then be voted on and passed by a Republican-controlled Senate.

And, as “Fred 2″ so astutely pointed out, the narrative would then shift from the current “do nothing Congress” to a Congress that passes good legislation but is thwarted by an obstructionist President who is currently at an all-time-low approval rating of 41%.

You’re right, “Fred 2″; our retaking of the Senate would greatly prepare the “battlespace” for the 2016 elections. People would then (hopefully) realize that if we only had a Republican President, we could actually see good legislation PASSED (a repeal of Obamacare, for starters).