2011-12 Sabres Cap and Free Agency Discussion

can we agree that Myers extension should be offered THIS offseason, with a year left on his deal? Avoiding the potential Vanek situation of allowing another team to do the negotiating for us during the following offseason?

The fact that Stamkos and Doughty (or Parise and Weber for that matter) haven't signed yet, makes me believe that they won't be able to sign him this off-season unless they offer him let's say 60m/10ys. I guess he would want to wait after his down-ish season.

That's the kind of offer I would make, that I think he would consider accepting. It's hard to gauge what kind of money he'll want, because statistically he is having a slight down year, and he's only 22 years old so he's probably not thinking too much about money at this point in his career. I think 10 years is a bit too long, Myers probably wouldn't want to be locked up that long. 8 years is a tad bit more reasonable. This makes Myers 30 years old when his contract is up. He'll still be in his prime to test the UFA market for a giant payday, but he'll still have a long enough contract to be the cornerstone of the Sabres franchise for a long period of time.

I think the best thing to do here is just avoid another Vanek situation. We all know Myers is gonna be good, so why dance around an offer because you're afraid he'll slump? Just give him a damn good contract and be thankful you have a young top tier defenseman with your team long term. As long as you can keep the cap hit reasonable, of course.

I like Myers and all, but he's not the player in the situation that you go all-in with and commit a significant portion of your team's future spending capacity to at 21-22 years of age and his second or third pro season.

You do that with Crosby, you do that with Stamkos, you do that with Ovechkin. You don't do that with Myers (or Doughty, for that matter).

Give him a decent and fair deal that takes him to the end of his RFA period, or maybe buy a couple UFA years. Don't give an average (yes, right now Myers is average, compared to Crosby, Ovechkin and Stamkos who are not) 2nd or 3rd year player tentpole-like money and a decade-long contract, it's just asking for trouble IMO.

i dont think something in the 5 mil range is comparable to crosby/ovie contracts that are closer to 9 mil per... that's a big difference.

i dont think something in the 5 mil range is comparable to crosby/ovie contracts that are closer to 9 mil per... that's a big difference.

I'm fine with the $4.5 to $5 million range, that would be worth the gamble on a 8-10 year deal. Taking a 23 year old defenseman's cap hit up into the elite stratosphere of a $6-7 million cap hit on an 8-10 year deal would be absurd though, that's my point.

Richards I'll grant you has worked out well for the Flyers. Would you agree though that the long term huge contracts that work out aren't as common as the ones that end up hurting their teams in the long run?

There are other examples ... But that is why the Sabres MUST sign Myers long term ... Period. And he will demand a cap hit of 5-6 mil/per. There is no getting around that, unless it is a short 2-3 year 3 mil/per deal. He is not an average defenseman, pay him big, pay him long.

I'm fine with the $4.5 to $5 million range, that would be worth the gamble on a 8-10 year deal. Taking a 23 year old defenseman's cap hit up into the elite stratosphere of a $6-7 million cap hit on an 8-10 year deal would be absurd though, that's my point.

Richards I'll grant you has worked out well for the Flyers. Would you agree though that the long term huge contracts that work out aren't as common as the ones that end up hurting their teams in the long run?

no... i would not agree.

I think the very long term contract, for the young franchise player... is a relatively new phenomenon, that doesn't have nearly enough statistical evidence to be analyzed the way you want to present it.

This isn't a 31 yr old Wade Redden we are talking about. Or a 29 yr old Kovalchuk for 100 bagillion dollars.

The analysis should not be about "what ifs". Do you think Myers is on the path to franchise cornerstone defensemen? If the answer is yes, then the 10 year 50-60 million contract is a great path.

If you are hesitant... and instead sign him for 5 years/25 million... then those will be the last 5 years he plays in Buffalo, leaving at 28 years old (his prime)

I think the very long term contract, for the young franchise player... is a relatively new phenomenon, that doesn't have nearly enough statistical evidence to be analyzed the way you want to present it.

This isn't a 31 yr old Wade Redden we are talking about. Or a 29 yr old Kovalchuk for 100 bagillion dollars.

The analysis should not be about "what ifs". Do you think Myers is on the path to franchise cornerstone defensemen? If the answer is yes, then the 10 year 50-60 million contract is a great path.

If you are hesitant... and instead sign him for 5 years/25 million... then those will be the last 5 years he plays in Buffalo, leaving at 28 years old (his prime)

QFT. The number of long term contracts signed by players at a young age (22-25ish) is so small that you can't make hasty conclusions about a small sample size. And to be fair, the majority of young players that have taken these contracts have been worth the money (DP is more of the exception than the most notable commonality).

As for the last part, it's definitely true. If you believe in Myers, lock him up. Because like Jame said, they could be the last 5 years he is here, and even if he is resigned at that point and he has developed, we're talking an extra 3 million + a season, and who knows what the salary cap situation will be down the road.

I think the very long term contract, for the young franchise player... is a relatively new phenomenon, that doesn't have nearly enough statistical evidence to be analyzed the way you want to present it.

This isn't a 31 yr old Wade Redden we are talking about. Or a 29 yr old Kovalchuk for 100 bagillion dollars.

The analysis should not be about "what ifs". Do you think Myers is on the path to franchise cornerstone defensemen? If the answer is yes, then the 10 year 50-60 million contract is a great path.

If you are hesitant... and instead sign him for 5 years/25 million... then those will be the last 5 years he plays in Buffalo, leaving at 28 years old (his prime)

Richards I'll grant you has worked out well for the Flyers. Would you agree though that the long term huge contracts that work out aren't as common as the ones that end up hurting their teams in the long run?

There's a difference between a young RFA, several years from entering his prime and paying through the nose for an UFA that is already in or exiting his prime. I can't think of one big long-term RFA contract (offer-sheets aside) that hurts the team, where the guy that signed it wasn't 1 year removed from being an UFA.

On the contrary there are several that will look like bargains in the upcoming years or already are (Kane's, Toews', Eriksson's or Ryan's for example).

EDIT: Actually I thought of one: Phaneuf. Which the most extreme sample out there.

From my response to Jame, "and even if he is resigned at that point and he has developed, we're talking an extra 3 million + a season, and who knows what the salary cap situation will be down the road."

I can't speak for him, maybe he assumes Myers would go to FA to the highest bidder (could be us though, who knows) or like I am thinking. Regardless a 5 year deal just doesn't make any sense considering the situation.

Well it's be obvious to most, but the Sabres are likely going to need a center going into next season. First let's look at the Sabres' depth, areas of strength and weakness and assess where solutions to those weak areas may be resolved.

Vanek is a first line forward. No doubt there. He's turning into a leader for this team, has played well in getting the team back into playoff contention and seems poised to take over the captaincy next season.

Tyler Ennis has the ability to become a first line winger with his shifty playmaking and goal scoring ability. The question is can he become solid enough defensively to garner those precious extra minutes and use his speed to become a dangerous player on the penalty kill ala Connolly (he might not provide much, but Connolly has provided solid PK time this year). Also, may he be moved to the weakest area on the team due to strength on the wings?

Nathan Gerbe has been one of the Sabres' top forwards/players in the second half of the season. His gritty play and speed are a necessary combination for a guy who's only about 5'5". Can he become a top-6 forward? I think so, but will it be next season... doubtful.

Rob Niedermeyer should be gone next season. Enough said.

Matt Ellis is a guy I really like. He's a guy who will never be a full-time NHL'er but is great for call up duty, adds energy to the lineup and is a great guy to have on an AHL roster to help bring along the younger players.

Marcus Foligno will be an important player with the Portland Pirates next season and has the upside of a third line forward with a slight scoring touch.

Drew Stafford's breakout 30 goal season has many of us believing he may finally be realizing his incredible potential. He's cooled of late but has the ability to put the puck in the net at any time. If his development from this season continues on the Sabres may have a top line right winger for the next 5-10 years.

Jason Pominville has had a bumpy road this season. The early season concussion derailed him for a while but he's been steady lately and provides good defensive play on the PK and can also play on the back-end of the power-play if necessary, adding versatility to the lineup.

Brad Boyes- The mid-season pick-up has been a very nice addition by Darcy and Co. while his scoring has tailed off since the trade, he still brings top-6 scoring ability and versatility in his ability to play center.

Patrick Kaleta is a true fan favorite due to his hometown links and ability to seemingly change the teams attitude within a game with his style of play. Is a solid 3rd-4th line winger... when healthy.

Mike Gier will likely be gone after this season.

Cody McCormick- A true bottom liner, McCormick adds to the group what he needs to... hitting and fighting, but has also chipped in some timely goals this year and is an asset to Buffalo.

Mark Mancari- May be gone after next season but IMO he could find a niche on the fourth line. Needs to try to improve his skating and he doesn't finish in the NHL like he can in the AHL due to the talent level increase.

Tyler Myers is back to playing like a beast after a slump in the first half of the year. He'll be this clubs top defensemen for the next 10-15 years.

Andrej Sekera had a revelation similar to Stafford. During one stretch scored 10 points in 5 games. Can be a top PP QB but it remains to be seen whether he can continue his play into the playoffs this year and beyond.

Mike Weber seems to be the sandpaper this squad has been looking for on the back end sine Jay McKee left. I really believe he will do exactly that and may eventually be a top-pairing defenseman with Myers.

Jordan Leopold- Good offensive defenseman with a nice shot from the point. His play has tailed off towards the end of the season and he's currently nursing a finger injury. Solid number four defenseman.

Steve Montador- Solid 5-6 defenseman adds some grit and can skate well for a guy known more for his physical play.

Chris Butler has had an up and down year. In my opinion he looks good when paired with Tyler Myers, but not so good when paired with others. Kind of like Jaro Spacek when he was with the Oilers paired with Pronger... but I digress. He has the ability to be a good 5-6 guy or an average to below average 4th defenseman. He'll fight for a spot on the opening roster next season if the Sabres choose to re-sign the restricted free agent to be.

Morrisonn- Annoying

Marc Andre-Grgniani is finally showing in the NHL that he's ready for the NHL. He shown strides in his defensive game and although his offensive game has always been there, he's showing it now. Voted the AHL defensive player of the year this season, look for Gragniani to make a big push to make the Sabres opening day roster next season.

Drew Schiestel was looking like Portland's best defenseman before an injury ended his season. He has good two-way ability and could likely fight for a spot with the Sabres next season but will more than likely stay in Portland at least another year to get back to 100% and refine his game.

TJ Brennan has the skills of a top-4 defenseman. It's just a matter of putting it all together. His game has improved in his second season with the Pirates, but he'll need at least one or two more seasons before he's ready to make the jump to the NHL. With all the defensive depth the Sabres have, Brennan, Schiestel, Gragniani or another young defenseman could be trade bait this summer.

Brayden McNabb looks like one of the best WHL defensemen right now and just missed out on the WJC this season. Look for him to play in Portland next season, and he'll likely need a year or two to develop. A big kid with a hard shot, needs to improve on his skating some more, but he will add some more grit to the Sabres back end as Mike Weber did this season.

Mark Pysyk was named captain of WHL's Edmonton Oil Kings this season and has shown some nice progression in his overall game. He will provide solid two-way play. Isn't very physical but his hockey IQ is good and he has great speed and some size (6'2''). Pysyk will probably spend one more season in the WHL before making the move to Portland or Buffalo, likely one season in Portland at least before making the big club.

Derek Roy was on a point per game pace before suffering a season ending injury. He's a key offensive player for Buffalo, but the team somehow played better after losing Roy as Vanek, Stafford, and others stepped their games up. Roy is a solid first line center, but to many observers, myself included, he makes a better second line center than a first.

Tim Connolly had a horrible start to the season but seems to be back on his game. He has been getting points as of late, and does good work on the penalty kill. Whether or not he is re-signed next season is a topic of heavy debate among the posters on this board, mainly due to the fact that there appear to be few talented centers available in free agency this offseason.

Jochen Hecht is a solid player, but not a top-6 forward any longer. He's filled in admirably during the Roy injury, but he'll be 33 or 34 next season and lacks consistency in his game. He won't get you 20 goals, but he plays solid defense, chips in occasionally on offense, and has versatility in his ability to play center or wing.

Paul Gaustad has never been an offensive juggernaut, but that's not his role. He's a big guy, who plays on the third or fourth line, wins face-offs, and plays good defense, along with a crash the net type of offensive style that goalies don't like to deal with. He'll be the third or fourth line center next season, but really gets his minutes on special teams as a power play face-off specialist, but more so as a major penalty killer.

Luke Adam played solid but unspectacularly for Buffalo in his call ups this season, but was a star in Portland this year, winning AHL ROY honors. He averaged over a ppg as a 20 year old AHL rookie. He has good size, is improving in his speed, and has an uncanny ability to get pucks into the net. He'll challenge for a roster spot next season, especially if the Sabres lose Connolly in the offseason.

Paul Byron is a typical Sabre, small. Although the Sabres have been drafting bigger players recently, Byron has shown that size isn't everything. He has solid offensive skills and isn't a total sieve in his own zone. He may end up with the Sabres eventually, but IMO he won't make it as a top-6 forward in the NHL.

Goaltender- Ryan Miller, Jhonas Enroth

Ryan Miller is an Olympic silver medalist and the face of the franchise. He played a good stretch of games during the most dire stretch of the season after it was recognized Lalime was no longer capable of earning the team a win and before realizing Jhonas Enroth was.

Jhonas Enroth has been a lifesaver with the Miller injury and gives the team a guy who can spell Miller on certain nights next year or take over when an injury occurs as he develops and the team decides what will happen when Miller gets too old or becomes a FA.

SO...... Let's take a look!

Surplus- Wingers, Defensemen

Needs- Center

Potential Solutions:

A) Promote from Within-
There are a couple of options within this scenario.

1. One is to re-sign Connolly, in the hope that his late season play carries into the playoffs and next season as the second line center. Roy comes back as the top-line center, Hecht moves down to the third line, and Gaustad stays as the fourth line center. Luke Adam starts the season in Portland and depending on injuries/level of play, moves Hecht to the wing and becomes the third line center by the end of the season and ready to supplant Connolly for the 2012-2013 season.

2. Another option would be to let Connolly walk, move Ennis or Gerbe (I prefer Ennis) to the second line center spot and have Roy as the first center, Ennis/Gerbe as the second center, Hecht as the third center and Gaustad as the fourth center. Again depending on his play or injuries, Adam would be in Portland waiting for his opportunity to take Hecht's spot by seasons end and shift Hecht back to center.

B) Sign Free Agents

3. Under this scenario, the main option would be to sign Brad Richards. He would take the first line spot. Roy would center the second line. Connolly would likely be gone and so Hecht would be the third center and Gaustad the fourth center with Adam in Portland. If Connolly were re-signed as well, he would center the third line and play a large special teams role.

4. Another option would be signing a guy like Brendan Morrisonn who is currently with Calgary. He would be the second line center, Roy the first line center, and again the scenario with Hecht, Gaustad, and Adam as third fourth and extra.

C) Trades
This scenario has the most options

5. Trade for First Line Center- This would be a trade for a center like a Paul Stastny, Jeff Carter or Vinny Lecavalier. It would likely take a package along the lines of Sekera/Gerbe/Ennis, our first round pick this season, and a higher level prospect like Adam/Kassian/Pysyk/McNabb/Enroth.

6. Trade for Second Line Center- A more likely scenario would have the Sabres dealing for a second line center. Options include Derrick Brassard, Antoine Vermette, Valteri Filpula, Mike Ribero, or Steven Weiss. These guys could help the Sabres replace Connolly on the second line and also come cheaper than the above mentioned players. A deal might be possible for a player like Pominville/Stafford/Sekera with possible slight extras (i.e. mid-late picks) going either way.

7. Trade for top Center Prospect almost NHL ready- the last option would be to make a deal for a prospect with top-6 upside who is on the cusp of being NHL ready. Options would include Brayden Schenn, Cody Hodgson, or Ryan Johansen. Deals for these type of players would be difficult because they are being viewed on their potential as opposed to their actual production. A Canucks fan may say a deal for Hodgson would need to be something like Weber/Sekera, Kassian/Pysyk/Adam and our first round pick (if not more). Sabre fans would balk at such a proposal.

All in all I believe the Sabres will make their move depending on Connolly's play in the postseason. If he plays well, look for him to be re-signed to a one or two year deal (as much as Sabres fans don't want to hear it, it's a definite possibility with how weak this UFA center market is). At the same time, Darcy has made some very nice moves in his time (Drury, Briere, Dumont, Boyes, Campbell). So if they decide to let Connolly go I believe they'll make a deal for a guy like Vermette or Ribero (maybe a guy like Brassard) in exchange for one of the right wingers (Stafford, Pominville, or Boyes) in order to bolster the top-6.

I only read the solutions section. A few things:
Ribeiro is better than Weiss. Calling Weiss a first line and Ribeiro a second line center is just wrong. There's no way they would trade away that much for a player like Weiss. And they'd be insane to do it for Vinny and his $7.2m-caphit-till-he's-40 either.

It's debatable, but I don't see Luke Adam making it as a center. He already plays wing in the AHL and I don't expect that to change.

LA and Columbus wouldn't trade away Schenn/Johansen for a package of lesser players.

I only read the solutions section. A few things:
Ribeiro is better than Weiss. Calling Weiss a first line and Ribeiro a second line center is just wrong. There's no way they would trade away that much for a player like Weiss. And they'd be insane to do it for Vinny and his $7.2m-caphit-till-he's-40 either.

It's debatable, but I don't see Luke Adam making it as a center. He already plays wing in the AHL and I don't expect that to change.

LA and Columbus wouldn't trade away Schenn/Johansen for a package of lesser players.

-Agreed on Weiss, although I think Ribero also falls into the second line center category so I left him there.
-Regarding Adam, yes it's debatable, but he's a big body down the middle we've needed for a long long time. But yes, he is currently playing wing for Portland, but has lined up for stints at center for Buffalo.
- Agree on the Schenn/Johansen comment, just saying it's an option for them to look at, although yes, it would likely take an overpayment that Regier is not willing to take. He's got enough confidence in his own guys he drafted than to trade them for someone he didn't draft at all.

-Connolly probably would get 1 year at 2.5 max
-Gerbe will probably get 1.5-2
-Sekera will probably get a small raise, maybe 1.5
-Weber will likely be around the same, around .750
-Butler probably to get 1.5-2