In this TL, the point of divergence comes when Chiang Kai-shek ignores George Marshall's call for a cease-fire and continues the offensive against Mao and his Communists in Manchuria. Note: I have no Chinese-language skills whatsoever, so I am reliant upon Google Translate. If I make a mistake here with translation, please leave a comment saying so! Enjoy. September 2, 1945: Imperial Japan surrenders, marking the end of the Pacific War (and WWII). Large swathes of China, including Manchuria, are occupied by the Soviet Union. From the mountain base in northern Shaanxi province, Yan'an, Mao Zedong plans to take over much of this area.

The rest of China is ruled by Chiang Kai-shek and his Nationalists (KMT). The KMT carried the brunt of most of the fighting against the Japanese during the war, and is as such exhausted. Chiang tells the Japanese troops which have not yet surrendered to await the arrival of Nationalist troops and not surrender to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Both sides make grabs for territory- the occupied regions of Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Hebei provinces are captured by Chiang's Nationalists, while the CCP takes control of Shandong. However, the CCP also has control of a number of bases left over from the war in these areas, formed by Communist partisans equipped and dispatched by Mao. These cells have a combined population in the millions, and will cause the Nationalists much headache in the coming conflict...

October 10, 1945: The Double Tenth Agreement (the tenth day of the tenth month) is signed in Chongqing, the Nationalist capital. This agreement has Mao accept Chiang as the leader of China, in exchange for which he is granted a sphere of control centred around Yan'an.

Neither side plans to abide by the treaty for too long, however. While Mao is in Chongqing, US forces land in northern China to accept the surrender of the Japanese garrisons of Tianjin and Beijing, which are then promptly handed over to the Nationalists. The US Navy also begins operations to ferry Nationalist troops to Manchuria as a prelude to fighting the CCP for control of the territory. American troops are stationed in key Chinese cities, and US money is funnelled to the KMT. The Soviets, meanwhile, direct captured Japanese weaponry and equipment to the Communists. Both sides fully expect conflict to resume in the near future....

October 1945: The Second Chinese Civil War begins as Mao launches military operations centred around the Great Wall of China to keep the Nationalist forces out of Manchuria (itself still under Soviet occupation). The Communist commander in the Manchuria front is Lin Biao, while his Nationalist counterpart is named Tu Yuming. Communist reinforcements arrive from the Shandong Peninsula, while the US Navy sends squadrons close to the Manchurian coastline and ferries in a handful of KMT troops.

The campaign, however, plays out rather inauspiciously for the Communists. Their only military experience has been as guerilla fighters: first as quasi-bandits during the 1920s, then on the Long March, then during World War II, when under Mao's orders they studiously avoided combat with the Japanese. Although this means that their forces are far less fatigued than Chiang's, it also means that they have far less experience in the field. By contrast, the Nationalists, while lacking in morale and tired from eight years of combat, are experienced and have access to relatively high-quality military equipment, the majority of which was given to them by the US during the Second World War, but some of which was taken from the Japanese as they surrendered city-by-city on China's east coast.

Morale is also a serious problem for the Communist troops. Almost all of them have been viciously indoctrinated in Yan'an, with Maoist "self-criticisms" par for the course. Life is extremely stressful for them, and many choose to abandon the fight and defect. In addition, Mao cannot count on the support of a hundred per cent of the peasantry: although many are attracted to his revolutionary ideology, a large number of Manchurian peasants back Chiang, as they have just come out from under fourteen years of Japanese occupation and desire peace. These peasants have missed the worst corruption of the KMT regime, and as such see Chiang as far more legitimate than Mao.

All of these factors combine to mean that the Communists cannot keep the Nationalist forces from entering Manchuria. At this stage, a divergence over strategy in Manchuria emerges in the Communist camp. Mao is insistent upon holding Harbin, Shenyang, and Changchun, the three major cities of the region. Lin Biao and Liu Shaoqi (Mao's deputy) advocate for abandoning the three cities and establishing a firm base along the borders with the USSR, North Korea, and Mongolia, and standing primarily on the defensive, allowing the Nationalists to weaken themselves in futile attacks while the Communists receive aid from Russia. However, Mao's view prevails. The results are disastrous for the CCP, which over the months of October and November loses much of southern Manchuria.

October 24, 1945: The United Nations is formed. The UN Security Council consists of the USA, Britain, France, the USSR, and Chiang's Nationalists.

November 17, 1945: A cable arrives for Mao from Moscow, ordering the Communist leader to follow Lin and Liu in abandoning the cities and building up a base on the border. The shock of what he sees as a betrayal nearly sends Mao into a nervous breakdown, but he goes ahead, aware that he cannot afford to be abandoned by his patron.

February 1946: The minutes of the 1944 Yalta Agreement are finally made public to the world. In them, the Tsarist-era privileges in China claimed by Stalin are revealed to the world. These consist basically of an economic sphere of influence in the north and west, including recognition of Outer Mongolia's independence (and thus its status as a Soviet puppet), the independence of the Second East Turkestan Republic (a small Muslim Communist state carved out of Xinjiang province by a Soviet-backed uprising in 1944), and Soviet economic influence in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. The publication of the treaty causes widespread anti-Soviet feeling across China, and the people's opinion of communism drops, meaning that their views on the Nationalists improve. Lin Biao summed it up best: "People are saying that the 8th Route Army shouldn't be fighting the government army... They regard the Nationalists as the Central Government." (1)

March 4-5, 1946: US general George Marshall visits Yan'an. Marshall, himself quite liberal, hopes to see a joint CCP-KMT coalition rule China. He is swayed by Mao's promises that the Communists will peacefully accept their role as second fiddle to Chiang, and will forsake armed warfare. Mao also claims that the CCP are not real communists like those in Eastern Europe, and are certainly not stooges of the USSR like the Eastern European parties. Instead, Mao portrays his force as left-wing agrarian reformers committed to fighting corruption and poverty and establishing a new China which will chart its own path through the world. Marshall returns to Washington confident that he can end once and for all the conflict in China, which has lasted two decades in one form or another (going back to the Northern Expedition).

May 3, 1946: Approximately ten months after first entering China, the last Soviet Red Army units are withdrawn. They coordinate with Mao so as to allow the Communists to take over what they occupied while keeping Chiang's Nationalists shut out. The vast majority of Manchuria is now under direct Communist rule, save those parts occupied by Chiang.

This decision proves fatal for the Communists, however, as it means that their source of aid- the Soviets- is now further away than before, meaning that they are on their own. Manchuria is conquered within weeks, and by June Shenyang, Dalian, Jilin, and Changchun have all fallen to the Nationalists. On June 3, Mao orders Lin Biao to evacuate Harbin (the last major Manchurian city under Communist rule) and focus on establishing bases on the Soviet, North Korean, and Mongolian borders.

June 4, 1946: US Secretary of State George Marshall proposes a cease-fire in the conflict. He demands that Chiang agree to a two-week armistice with Mao, on pain of having all American equipment and aid revoked.

Marshall's ultimatum sparks fierce debate amongst the Nationalists. The prospect of being without American aid or equipment is deeply unappetising, and as such some in the Nationalist camp advocate for accepting the Marshall ceasefire. The most prominent of these figures is Wei Lihuang, who Chiang suspects is a Communist sleeper agent. However, Chiang reasons that the Communists are so close to defeat that even in the event that US aid is cut off, they can be crushed and it will be worth it. The Chinese Civil War will continue. (2) True to Marshall's threat, America stops loans to Nationalist banks and ends all shipments of military equipment to the KMT army.

June 8, 1946: After two days of fighting, Lin Biao is forced out of Harbin. Communist control in Manchuria now consists of a belt of territory wrapping around the Soviet-Mongolian-North Korean borders. Mao is forced to accept plans to "go over to guerilla warfare on a long-term basis".

In the Soviet Union, fears are aroused after the fall of Harbin that all of China will soon be under the rule of the hostile Nationalists. Stalin begins to prepare for the possibility of taking steps to secure Communist dominance of Northeast Asia...

June 14, 1946: Stalin's foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov meets with Mongolian leader Khorloogiin Choibalsan to discuss "the possibility of the Mongolian People's Republic acquiring, at a certain date in the near future, a part or all of the region of Inner Mongolia." An Inner Mongolian provisional government is formed and plans to annex the region to Mongolia (itself a Soviet puppet) are prepared for execution.

July 5, 1946: Nationalist troops reach the Amur River (and Soviet border) opposite the Soviet town of Amurzet, dividing the Communist territory remaining in Manchuria in two. Chiang gives very strict orders not to cross the river, even in pursuit of retreating Communist forces. Two Nationalist soldiers- Ling Changfu and Zhuang Tsehai- who kill a Russian trader for his purse are executed following a court-martial. In spite of these precautions, Chiang is sure that the Soviets will strike against him in the near future, especially as his border with the USSR grows almost by the day. Apollon Pietrow, the Soviet ambassador to Chiang, warns Nanjing (Chiang's capital) on the sixth that "the Soviet Union may be faced with no choice but to take action on behalf of Mao Zedong and to protect our own eastern provinces if troops of the Chinese Central Government are not withdrawn from all positions along the Soviet border within one week." Chiang decides to take a massive gamble and continues the offensive against Mao. The Red Army, meanwhile, has been building up on the Chinese border for a second invasion, with many veteran units of 1945 being shunted eastwards.

July 14, 1946: At 12:15 AM, fifteen minutes after Pietrow's ultimatum expires, Soviet Field Marshal Rodion Malinovsky leads the newly created Manchurian Front (3) into China. The front between the Nationalists and Soviets is approximately 340 miles long and runs between Da Hagan Ling and Yichun, both of which are just barely under Nationalist occupation. 750,000 troops are used in this operation, along with 1200 T-34 tanks and 580 IS-2 tanks. Nationalist forces, while superior to the guerilla armies of the CCP, are in no state to fight fresh, superbly equipped Soviet troops who considerably outnumber them in the theatre. Chiang orders a general retreat through Manchuria, hoping to stretch the Soviet supply columns and lure Malinovsky into a trap. However, he knows that the odds are now very long indeed...

To be continued....Thoughts?

(1) Quote taken from the OTL Mao: The Unknown Story by Jung Chang and John Halliday, page 285.
(2) POD, obviously in OTL Chiang agreed to the ceasefire
(3) Front being the Soviet term for army group

The location where the Daqing oil field will be developed by 1959 is in the center of Manchuria. Why would or how could the CCP try to hold it with their position collapsing?

What happened to the SU tank park? The Soviets in August Storm invaded with about double the amount of troops on 1945 than 1946 but many times more tanks (5,500+ tanks & SP guns versus barely 200).

Click to expand...

Thank you for pointing those things out. I did not know that Daqing had yet to be turned into an oilfield, it has been edited. As for the small Soviet force, my reasoning is that the USSR is too bloodied to fight a massive war against China, rather it is sending in a relatively small force to turn the tide a la Mao in the OTL Korean War. Stalin also figures that a full fledged war with Chiang will overly antagonise the USA.

July 14, 1946: In Washington, President Truman is awoken with the news that the Soviets have invaded China. The US government is torn as to what to do. Some figures, such as Secretary of State Dean Acheson and a young Wisconsin firebrand, Joseph McCarthy, favour harsh measures, including even a declaration of war on the USSR. Others, such as Secretary of Defence James Forrestal and major Democratic Party leader Henry Wallace, adopt a policy of indifference. To them, China is an ocean away, and with the Second World War not even a year over, a war with the Soviets is unthinkable. Opinions on Chiang and his whole regime are also mixed amongst American leaders. Although all leaders remember reading about the Rape of Nanjing and fire-bombing of Chongqing during WWII and how the Nationalists withstood such a horrid conflict at the side of the USA, Chiang's corruption and inefficiency are also high in many minds. Some have also been swayed by George Marshall and his positive messages about the Communists, portraying them as peaceful agrarian reformers.

In the end, Truman decides on a middle course. Aid to the Nationalists is resumed immediately, and the latest American bombers are sent to Chinese airfields. However, no ground forces are sent to China. The reasons for this are numerous. First, Truman believes that if US and Soviet troops clash directly, it will mean World War III. Even with the advantage of nuclear technology, such a conflict would be horrendously bloody for the already tired USA. Second, there are no American forces in East Asia ready for instant deployment to combat zones in China. The largest force in the Pacific is the Eighth Army, presently tied down in the occupation of Japan. The risk of losing Japan to an uprising, be it communist or far-right, is seen as too great. (1) While there are other US troops in the Pacific, these are mostly in out-of-reach places where they cannot be easily retrieved.

July 19, 1946: The United Nations Security Council meets in New York to pass Resolution #8, formally condemning the Soviet Union for its "serious violation of the sovereign territory of the Republic of China in the form of supplying active military units to anti-government forces operating in the Manchuria region." The USA, Britain, France, and Nationalist China all vote in favour, however (and obviously, really) the Soviet Union votes no, thus the resolution is not passed. The possibility of sending a UN force to help Chiang is now past. (2)

July 1946: Throughout the month of July, Nationalist forces are steadily pushed back through Manchuria. General Tu Yuming, the KMT commander in Manchuria, is an average commander with a slightly-below- average army. He has grown accustomed to CCP guerilla warfare and wiping out with relative ease any conventional formations assembled by Lin Biao. Now, Malinovsky's Manchurian Front shoves aside the guerilla remnants of Mao's force and engages directly with the KMT army, to great effect. On the eighteenth, Da Hagan Ling is captured by the Russians, the city is rapidly turned back to Communist control. Halfway between Hulun Buir and Blagovarchesk, five KMT divisions are annihilated. Chiang orders the Nationalist forces in the area to retreat to Harbin and to make a stand with all he has there.

July 30, 1946: Mongolia declares that it will intervene "on behalf of our brethren in Inner Mongolia and restore them to their rightful government." Mongolian troops using Russian equipment pour into Inner Mongolia. Although Nationalist forces in the area are few, the Mongolians are very much at the same level. Xilin Gol, the largest city in Inner Mongolia, barely holds, and after that, a stalemate largely ensues. However, Baotou and Bayan Nur do fall to the Mongolians.

August 12, 1946: The Battle of Harbin begins. Twenty-seven KMT divisions face off against thirty-five Russian ones, including the majority of the advanced armour, plus two CCP divisions. "Not a foot of ground is to be ceded", exhorts Chiang in a cable from Beijing, "no soldier of the Republic of China is to give an inch of ground without first taking the life of a foreign devil." Stalingradesque rhetoric aside, however, the Nationalists are very poorly prepared for such a massive confrontation. Although they have access to top-of-the-line American equipment, not all entrusted with it know how to operate it. Morale is also a problem after a month-long retreat right when the war seemed on the verge of ending.

As the Soviet armour sweeps over the Songhua River to Tu's left and right, Russian troops surge forth in human wave attacks which break the Nationalist defenders. One correspondent from a British newspaper writes in his journal on August 16th "Before I was assigned to cover this (the Battle of Harbin), I confess that the ideology of communism made a degree of sense to me. I was attracted to it, as it seemed a route out of poverty. Yet, when I witnessed the Russian human wave attacks against Chinese troops, in which men were thrown forth like lambs to the slaughter, I was shocked. For if the leaders of the Communist world care so little about the lives of their own men, who after all fought the Nazis for four long years, then how can I hope that they will care about me, a foreigner of no importance at all?" (3)

The city is encircled by Russian armour and surrenders on the seventeenth, with 12,000 Nationalist troops going into captivity or joining the Communists.

August 1946: At the headquarters of the Manchurian Front, Malinovsky and Lin Biao (the former being very much the senior figure in the partnership) confidently assume that Manchuria will be theirs within weeks. Plans for a drive on Beijing in mid-September are drawn up. Their optimism seems well-placed, as the Nationalists suffer defeat after defeat in Manchuria over the course of the month. Changchun and Shenyang fall to the Soviets two and three weeks respectively after the start of the Battle of Harbin, and Chiang prepares to defend Beijing. However, his horrific losses in Harbin mean that only seventeen divisions can be mustered when the Russian tide comes rolling in....

September 1, 1946: Chiang, however, need not have worried. By this point, the United States cannot stand to see the Red Army on Chinese soil any longer. That very day, five B-29s equipped with atomic bombs take off from San Francisco, they land in Shanghai four days later.

September 5, 1946: In a private conference with Soviet Ambassador Nikolai Novikov, President Truman warns that the USA may use tactical nuclear weapons "on the forces of the Chinese Communist Party" (read, Soviets) unless "all parties concerned immediately agree to some form of an armistice."

Novikov rapidly relays the message to Stalin. Privately, views on the US ultimatum amongst the Soviets are mixed. Many feel- although the Stalinist repression means that they dare not voice it out loud- that with Operation Barbarossa only five years past, the threat of a nuclear strike from America is too great. Stalin, meanwhile, converses with Mao on this issue.

The CCP chairman is unafraid. "If the imperialists should use the nuclear bomb on the Red Army", he tells Stalin over the phone the next day, "it will spark a third world war. Should that occur, millions will die, but the capitalist world will be obliterated, and the rest of humanity will become socialist." Mao blatantly refuses to consider the prospect of a cease-fire with the Nationalists now that the Red Army has arrived to save his bacon. A few high-level Soviets begin to contemplate the possibility of regime change in China out of fear that Mao will escalate the conflict irresponsibly, but the anti-Mao faction knows that it must keep its head down for the moment. The Chinese Civil War will continue...

September 9, 1946: Truman interprets this as a rejection of his ultimatum, and after a few days of soul-searching, decides that he cannot afford to have Stalin call his bluff. That night, the B-29 City of Lansford takes off from an airfield in Shanghai, carrying one nuclear bomb. It is escorted by a squadron of P-51 Mustangs. Target: Baicheng. The small Manchurian village has become a staging ground for Red Army and CCP troops and is widely believed to be the springboard for a future attack on Beijing. At five minutes past eleven PM, it becomes the third victim in world history to suffer a nuclear attack. Tens of thousands of Red Army troops are killed in the blast, along with virtually the entire civilian population, while many more die in the following weeks and months from radiation and subsequent sicknesses.

In the Kremlin, many panic. Surely, they feel, now that Soviets have been killed by US nuclear bombs, the Americans are already preparing to strike the major cities of the USSR- for all they know, the bombers might be en route. Surrender and abandonment of China are essential. In the West, this will become known as the Baicheng Strike, in the Communist world it will be known as the "September 9 Nuclear Incident." (九月九日核事故, 9 Yuè 9 rì hé shìgù)September 10, 1946: At twelve thirty in the morning, Stalin and Mao have an emergency conference on the phone. Mao claims that "the USSR put the Chinese revolution into a situation whereby it stationed Russian forces on Chinese soil to force the Chinese people to suffer a nuclear strike from the imperialists." This absurd statement- blaming the US nuclear strike on the Soviets when it was Mao who advocated for the war to continue after Truman's ultimatum, and Stalin who was pro-peace- infuriates the Soviet leader, and will give rise to many conspiracy theories later on. Stalin brusquely informs Mao that he will be seeking a cease-fire with the USA, whether or not the CCP Chairman likes it or not. Of course, Mao now wants peace to save his regime, but he wishes to use the Soviets as the fall guy.

At eleven AM US time, the Soviet ambassador to the United States informs Secretary of State James F. Byrnes that the USSR "will be willing to seek a cease-fire to end the Chinese conflict in which we have become entangled so as to prevent any further usage of nuclear weapons." Truman is immediately informed, and plans are made for negotiation...

September 12, 1946: KMT, CCP, and Red Army commanders agree to a three-week-long ceasefire.

September 16, 1946: The Changchun Conference opens. The US delegation consists of Byrnes and US ambassador to China John Stuart. The Soviets send Molotov and Malinovsky, while Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai represent the CCP. Finally, Chiang Kai-shek and General Tu Yuming represent the Nationalists. In addition, Khorloogiin Choibalsan represents communist Mongolia.

Neither side has a definite edge in the negotiations. The main fighting occurred in Manchuria, but Mongolian troops also control Inner Mongolia and Chiang is in no position to evict them. Additionally, the Communists still retain control over Yan'an, which lacks a border with Manchuria. The communist Second East Turkestan Republic, under Ehmetjan Qasami's leadership, has also survived the war fully intact. Truman may have been willing to use one tactical nuclear weapon to force the Communists to the bargaining table, but mass nuclear attacks on Russian cities is something else again. Stalin knows that were it not for the US nuclear threat, he could formally declare war on America and flood China with Russian troops. Mao and the rest of the CCP know that they have, in effect, failed in the civil war, and have been rescued by the Soviets. As such, prudence dictates that they keep their objectives modest, although the Chairman is not above setting his sights high. Finally, Chiang Kai-shek can see that he has failed to stamp out the Communists, but that the alternatives to negotiation are a massive war with the Soviets or sitting back and watching America drop nuclear bombs all over Communist-controlled Manchuria. The end result is a treaty containing a number of compromises which neither side is too happy with, but sees as the lesser evil.

September 28, 1946: The Changchun Accords are signed. The provisions are as follows:

All fighting between the KMT and CCP is to cease immediately. Both sides are to retain the territory they control. The exception to this are the small Red bases outside of Yan'an, which are to be ceded to the Nationalists.

All Soviet troops are to evacuate China within thirty-one days, and all US bombers are to do the same.

The Republic of China is to regain control over Inner Mongolia, and pledges not to invade Outer Mongolia.

The independence of the Second East Turkestan Republic is to be confirmed.

The Communist-controlled Yan'an region is to remain under CCP rule.

The USA pledges not to station nuclear forces in China, and the USSR pledges to do the same should it develop an atomic weapon.

October 1, 1946: In Harbin, Mao Zedong proclaims the formation of the People's Republic of North China. The fledgeling Communist state controls the territory corresponding to the Japanese puppet empire, plus Yan'an. In an attempt not to be seen like a Soviet knockoff of the Japanese puppet regime, Harbin is chosen as capital over Changchun. The August 12 battle is held up as a "great revolutionary liberation campaign which will live in the annals of history for 10,000 years." in CCP propaganda. A new flag is created, a red star inside a blue star inside a yellow one on a red background with the Chinese for "Long Live the Enclave of the Three Great Socialist Races of China", referring to the Han, Mongols, and Manchus.

In practice, the PRNC is little more than a Soviet client state like Poland or Hungary. Although the Red Army is back north on the appropriate schedule, the Russians exert a great deal of economic influence over the young socialist state, and Mao is reliant upon the Red Army for help in building up his own military, the People's Liberation Army. Mao is displeased at his failure to conquer China and awaits his moment...

(1) In the OTL Korean War, the 1947 constitution was already in place. Here, with the Japanese surrender just nine months past, the thought of ending the Occupation is impossible.
(2) In the OTL Korean War, the only reason that the USSR did not veto sending UN troops to Korea was because Stalin and Mao wanted the US to be bloodied fighting Communist Chinese troops. Here, the hostile KMT has the manpower advantage, and sending in UN troops will only exacerbate the problem.
(3) Roughly analogous to the British actor Michael Cane's response to seeing human wave attacks in the OTL Korean War by communist Chinese troops.

Flag of the TTL People's Republic of North China. The red background stands for communism. The yellow, blue, and red stars stand for the Manchus, Mongolians, and Han respectively, while the Chinese text says "Long Live the Enclave of the Three Great Socialist Races of China!"

View attachment 487815
Flag of the TTL People's Republic of North China. The red background stands for communism. The yellow, blue, and red stars stand for the Manchus, Mongolians, and Han respectively, while the Chinese text says "Long Live the Enclave of the Three Great Socialist Races of China!"

Click to expand...

That looks like the title card for a Japanese Game Show. It's terrible. What's wrong with OTL PRC flag?

This is a valid criticism. I based this decision off of Douglas MacArthur's demand to nuke the Chinese in the OTL Korean War. Stalin is now genuinely afraid of the United States, much more than in OTL, and calculates that escalating the conflict would not be worth the risk of having the USA destroy Soviet Russia with nukes. Nuclear weapons are, however, somewhat less taboo than in OTL.