Xavier Thames’ game reflects his personality: quiet, understated, not flashy, not egotistical.

His journey to professional basketball is no different.

Thames could be among the more compelling stories at the two-round NBA Draft, a fifth-year senior with tantalizing potential who could be a surprise pick June 26 or who could slip into obscurity in one of the deepest drafts in years at arguably the toughest NBA position to crack.

It is still early, still three weeks from the Chicago combine and two months from the actual draft, but we’re looking at a hung jury. Some scouts privately rave about Thames. Some aren’t so sure, as much due to unfamiliarity as uncertainty. Some mock drafts have him as an early second-round pick; some don’t have him on their draft boards at all.

NBADraft.net’s Big Board rates him the 42nd best prospect. ESPN’s Chad Ford has him No. 68. DraftExpress doesn’t have him in its Top 100.

NBA.com’s analysis of point guard prospects doesn’t list Thames in its Top 10 or among three “honorable mention” players in what it considers a weak crop at the position. But it has him as its only “sleeper,” which is defined as “players almost certain to go in the second round but who may … have an impact on the teams that select them if they overcome perceived shortcomings.”

X, quite literally, may or may not be a factor.

“People keep counting him out, counting him out, counting him out,” said one respected NBA scout from the Eastern Conference, speaking on the condition of anonymity, “and he keeps proving people wrong. I like him. But I’ve known about him for a long time.”

Resume, check: Heart and soul of a 31-win team that reached the Sweet 16, Mountain West player of the year, Bob Cousy Award finalist, SDSU’s leader in points (17.6), assists and steals while shooting 37.2 percent on 3s and 83.4 percent on free throws, a 26-point average during the NCAA Tournament.

Key dates

April 27: Early entry deadline

May 14-18: Draft combine in Chicago

May 20: Draft lottery

June 5: NBA Finals begin

June 26: NBA Draft

“X has a shot, yes,” said coach Steve Fisher, who spent a year working in the NBA before coming to SDSU. “I think X is going to pleasantly surprise a lot of clubs that visit with him. He’ll prove that he knows how to play, that he can shoot from range, that he can create his own shot, that he knows how to use ball screens.

“My thought is X will only help himself when he works out for teams.”

His first chance was last weekend at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament in Virginia, an annual postseason clearinghouse for seniors not projected to go in the first round. Thames and SDSU teammate Josh Davis were invited. Only Davis went.

Thames withdrew on the counsel of Colin Bryant, his newly-hired agent. Bryant declined to comment about Thames and his plans over the next few months, instead providing a brief statement about Portsmouth:

“Based on information from general managers and player personnel (directors), the decision was made to bypass Portsmouth. This decision is made by seniors every year. We are confident Xavier will get his opportunity to prove he is one of the best guards in the draft.”

Thames wasn’t alone; more than two dozen seniors declined Portsmouth invitations in each of the last two years, ostensibly to refine their games before workouts closer to the draft. Thames has been spending weekends in Las Vegas at Impact Basketball Academy, as Jamaal Franklin did last year, while finishing the spring semester at SDSU.

Not enamored with the strategy is Ryan Blake, the senior director of NBA scouting operations who helps assemble the rosters for Portsmouth.

“I talked to Colin and I tried to give him my two cents and he was very respectful of my advice, and he pulled him out of the tournament anyway,” Blake said. “I like Xavier. He’s got a lot of skill, there’s no question. It’s not his fault. It’s the advice of his agent.

“When you’re not a first-rounder, you want to do everything you can to audition for NBA teams and expose yourself to them. If you don’t, your percentages of making an NBA team really dwindle. By choosing not to go to Portsmouth, let me put it this way: Other young men opened some doors instead and it becomes, who’s Xavier Thames? I hate to say that … But he absolutely blew it.”

The next, and really last, mass audition is the official pre-draft combine May 14-18 in Chicago. It is primarily for early-entry college underclassmen, draft-eligible foreign prospects and seniors projected in the first round, plus whomever else there’s room for. Sixty-three players participated last year, and Thames – like many seniors not considered first-rounder locks – figures to be on the bubble.

Blake, however, does not issue the invitations. NBA teams submit lists of players they’d like to see there, and the Chicago roster is culled from that. After Chicago, teams schedule individual workouts and several appear intrigued by Thames.

Said one Western Conference scout: “Xavier is in a group of about 10 point guards – guys like Justin Cobbs (Cal), Kendall Williams (New Mexico), Jahii Carson (Arizona State), Markel Starks (Georgetown), Keith Appling (Michigan State) – who will either get drafted in the second round or won’t get drafted. One or two of those guys might end up as a backup in the NBA, or they’ll end up playing in Europe.

“I wouldn’t put their chances of being drafted above 50 percent.”

That same scout also said this: “He’s got great size, really good on pick and roll, very good mid-range jumper, which is sort of a lost art. He’s got a chance.”

So what gives?

It’s the position. Point guard is considered the most competitive in the NBA, if for no other reason than simple demographics. There are a limited number of 7-footers on the planet, but, as one scout put it, “if you’re anywhere from zero feet to 6-3 and you want to play in the NBA, you have to play point guard.” There are also the rule changes to eradicate defensive hand checking, which allows point guards more freedom with the ball and makes them a more integral part of the NBA offense.

Add to that the deepest overall draft in years, with a promising crop of foreigners and more early-entry candidates by the day (the deadline is Sunday). UNLV junior forward Khem Birch is the latest to leave school.

It is a daunting outlook, with one glimmering consolation. Thirty NBA general managers don’t have to want you. Only one does.