“That said, $40 is not a magic number where demand picks up. I would view the oil price as likely to be range bound up to $55, or $60, a barrel over the next 12 to 18 months. Inventories are at a high level, and demand is not as it was.”

Greg Bennett, a fund manager at ArgonautCapital, agreed oil was in oversupply: “The world is currently over-producing oil by 1.6 million barrels a day, and global inventories are at levels not seen for more than two decades.”

In a blog post published this week, veteran oil analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood wrote: “With little sign of any demand pick up until the second half of 2016 at the earliest, the equation looks very much like lower for longer.”

But Buxton is sufficiently optimistic on greater stability for the oil price - currently trading at around $40 a barrel - to buy stock in BP and Shell. He said: “I’m buying BP as we speak. I have been for three to four months. My stock is yielding 7.6% and, although the company is paying the dividend out of its balance sheet, I believe the return makes it a safe bet for the longer term.”

He added that low oil prices were helping to feed consumer confidence: “To date, people have been viewing the falling price of oil as a windfall, but it’s my bet that they are going to start seeing the cut is more permanent, and spend accordingly.”

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Buxton expects the Federal Reserve to hike rates next week, which he would see as a vote of confidence in the US economy, with one or two hikes to follow, before the US presidential race starts in earnest. Despite the cautious noises coming out of the Bank of England, he believes a UK rate rise will take place by the middle of next year: “We never like to be too far behind the US.”

He said a broader recovery in the economy will boost value stocks, which have badly lagged growth counters over the last year. Over the last year, his UK Alpha fund has been a bottom-quartile performer, according to data provider Morningstar, although Buxton's retains its “silver” rating because of his strong performance record over the years.

Correction: This story has been updated to correct a misspelling of Malcolm Graham-Wood's name.