TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

No incentive to keep improving AutoPilot on HW1

Although Elon has said that HW1 AP features will continue to improve, I don't see any incentive for Tesla to continue improvement in HW1. The number of HW1 cars are now fixed, and will be dwindling over time as they are taken out of service (e.g. accidents, etc.). The number of HW2 cars are increasing by the day, and with Model 3 volumes, HW1 will be a tiny fraction of the overall Tesla fleet.

I just don't see any rationale for additional HW1 improvements outside of standard fleet learning tweaks to current algorithms.

Although Elon has said that HW1 AP features will continue to improve, I don't see any incentive for Tesla to continue improvement in HW1. The number of HW1 cars are now fixed, and will be dwindling over time as they are taken out of service (e.g. accidents, etc.). The number of HW2 cars are increasing by the day, and with Model 3 volumes, HW1 will be a tiny fraction of the overall Tesla fleet.

I just don't see any rationale for additional HW1 improvements outside of standard fleet learning tweaks to current algorithms.

Anyone agree / disagree?

Click to expand...

Perception. Cell phones can be safely ignored after a year or two since most people get rid of their phones for new ones in that time anyway. But if the older Model S' are abandoned, it'll severely hurt the brand image as cars are kept for 10 years+ and, even more importantly, resale values on virtually all used Model S' will plummet.

As the number of HW1s dwindle, it'll become safe to abandon them. But for now support needs to continue for the sake of Tesla's image.

Agreed. There are some companies that stand behind (and support their products) long after it probably doesn't make any financial sense to do so. For an example, look at the Mitusbishi MU-2. The plane was discontinued in 1985. There are about 300 still flying in the world today. Mitsubishi continues to support the aircraft.

While the number of AP1.0 cars is now fixed, it will be several years before they are less than 50% of the total Tesla fleet. It is most likely that upgrades/code changes developed for the AP2.0 cars will then be implemented in the AP1.0 code if possible. I would be surprised if they stop supporting/upgrading the AP1 cars in the next 5 years. Even then, the only reason I would see them stopping future upgrades is if they reach a point where they just can't do anymore with the existing hardware.

This is another reason I think they should have created an upgrade path outside of replacing the car. Getting rid on AP1 cars by updating them makes more sense than letting them dwindle away through attrition IMHO. One of those hidden costs that can add up to more than the retrofit costs.

Totally agree. Have about 800 hours in MU-2s. Best bang for the buck bar none. Have a bunch of youtube videos I made flying the MooToo after learning tricks about cockpit videos from another MU-2 pilot who ultimately sold his two MU-2s and moved up to a Beech Premier...

I think you are right and I don't think there is much left to improve on the software front with AP1

Click to expand...

Slow down here!
AP 1 needs a fair amount of improving and I'm sure it will.
For safety sakes, they will be required by law to have AP 1 cars read stop signs and traffic lights. This way, it will be a totally safe vehicle to drive.
The full autonomy is not needed anyway as I feel it is a gimmick more than a practical need.
Having Autopilot assistance, as it is now, along with TACC and the ability to read red lights and stop signs would just about round it out for Ap 1.

Slow down here!
AP 1 needs a fair amount of improving and I'm sure it will.
For safety sakes, they will be required by law to have AP 1 cars read stop signs and traffic lights. This way, it will be a totally safe vehicle to drive.
The full autonomy is not needed anyway as I feel it is a gimmick more than a practical need.
Having Autopilot assistance, as it is now, along with TACC and the ability to read red lights and stop signs would just about round it out for Ap 1.

Click to expand...

Wait, so you think some government agency is going to make it required that all cars on the road must read traffic signs? That would surely clear off lots of cars from the road real quick.

Meta

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.