A good report of Sberbank scared investors

In the first half of the year, Sberbank earned 427 billion rubles. and increased the main indicators. Against this background, the bank revised its key forecasts in the direction of growth, despite the negative macroeconomic situation. However, investors, frightened by possible sanctions of the United States, do not share a positive: Sberbank shares were the leaders of decline and reached the annual minimum of their price.

Sberbank published a report on IFRS for the first half of the year. Net profit of the bank amounted to 427.4 billion rubles. In the second quarter, Sberbank deconsolidated in the statements of Turkish Denizbank in connection with the agreement on its sale. However, the profit of the Turkish "daughter" in the financial results was taken into account - 7 billion rubles. for the quarter. In general, the foreign banks of Sberbank brought him a loss of 2.1 billion rubles. The contribution of each of the banks is not disclosed, but, according to the accounts of the Ukrainian subsidiary of Sberbank under IFRS, its loss in the second quarter was about 17 billion rubles. (see "Kommersant" on August 9).

Otherwise, the results of Sberbank were strong enough that it allowed him to revise the forecasts for the year. "The bank has shown good reporting, profit in line with our expectations, and we expect that the bank will earn about 849 billion rubles by the end of the year," Gazprombank analyst Andrey Klapko notes.

Sberbank itself deteriorated the assessment of macroeconomic indicators for the year: revised expectations for GDP growth at the end of the year from 1.9% to 1.7%, raised the forecast for inflation to 3.9%, expectations for the key rate of the Central Bank at the end of the year amounted to 7.5 % (against 6.75% earlier), at the average annual rate of the ruble - 62.8 rubles / $ (against 60.7 rubles. / $ earlier). In terms of the banking market, the outlook is more optimistic: Sberbank has improved the outlook for corporate lending growth from 7-9% to 8-10%, significantly increased the rate of attracting client funds. The new forecast for the growth of corporate deposits is 10-13% for the market (against 5-8% earlier), for retail deposits - 10-12% (against 6-9%).

The growth of rates should contribute to the inflow of client funds. During the conference call, Alexander Morozov, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank, pointed to the possibility of raising deposit rates for individuals while maintaining current trends. But the decrease in interest rates on loans will cease: "We admit an increase in the Central Bank's key rate by 0.25 percentage points. In this regard, we believe that the potential for further reduction of the key rate is now most likely not. We do not see now the grounds for further lowering rates on the market, including mortgage ones. "

However, all these forecasts do not fully take into account the risks of strengthening the sanctions of the West towards Russia, namely, they affect the mood of investors. Analysts say among the main risks the reversal of the deal for the sale of Denizbank, the weakening of the ruble, sanctions. As a result, despite good reporting, Sberbank's shares were among the leaders of decline. As a result of Thursday's trading, the value of the state bank's common shares fell by 4.8%, to 178.71 rubles. This is the minimum value since August 24, 2017. The shares of other banks also fall: VTB shares lost 3.7%, the Moscow Stock Exchange index decreased 1.6%.

According to Dmitry Skvortsov, Director for Investments, April Capital, investors are cutting investments in the financial sector, as it suffers the hardest due to the devaluation of the ruble. In addition, they are concerned about the potential sanctions that the US senators promise to take on the banks. Sen. Democrat from Maryland Chris Van Hollen said the need for a law providing for the imposition of sanctions for interference in US elections by Russia or another country. Restrictions should affect at least three organizations listed in the bill: Sberbank, VTB, Gazprombank, Vnesheconombank, BM-Bank and Rosselkhozbank. According to Mr. Skvortsov, Sberbank shares suffer more than others, as they concentrate the maximum amount of funds of foreign investors.