Mets Chat Room: Mets survive Perez to beat Reds.

Heads-or-Tails Perez was on display this afternoon at Shea. For five innings he was the “Good Ollie.” Then came the sixth.

Honestly, I’m so glad I was off so I didn’t have deal with that nonsense. I’m tired of watching him. The one good start isn’t worth it for the three that stink. Willie Randolph said Perez can pitch on his team any time.

That’s only because he doesn’t have any better options. That’s why he’ll be an ex-Met this time next year.

John Delcos enters his third season covering the Mets for The Journal News after eight seasons on the Yankees beat. Prior to coming to New York, John covered the Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Browns and Cleveland Indians.

84 Comments

Regarding Perez, he’s going to get his long-term deal at $10 million per pop. The question is whether he makes sense for the Mets. And that answer is all about Pedro. If Pedro comes back (he does, arguably, have a new arm now) as a #2 or a #3, then Perez won’t be more than a fourth starter for the Mets; in which case, you let him walk. But, if you’re cutting your ties with Pedro, there becomes a huge hole in the rotation behind Johan and Maine.

Perez can certainly be frustrating to watch. But he did win 15 games and finish in the top ten in ERA last year. And he did this at the age of 25.

So, it begs the question of which will be easier: To sit through his frustrating lapses of concentration or find another 26-yr-old power lefty who can win 15 games and finish in the top ten in ERA?

I missed the second half od the doubleheader and yesterdays game but let me get this straight.
Fist half. Delgado batted 7th and we won. The second half he was upgraded to the 5 SPOT? and we lost. then back down to 7th and we won.
And what have we learned????

I understand what you’re saying, John, but the context means everything. If Perez is your number-three starter, you’ll likely pay more for him than if he slots in at number four. And Pedro can be a big determining factor in that.

What makes Pedro such an intriguing factor here is that he largely became a junkballer before his surgery—so velocity isn’t really the issue for him. In a famous quote, Bobby Cox noted how Pedro had beaten the Braves with a fastball that topped out at 84 mph. I think if Pedro is healthy enough to pitch, he’ll be smart enough to win. He could literally be the next Jamie Moyer: Not an ace, but a reliable #3 guy.

Tiffany,
“I would spend every waking moment trying to convince Duaner Sanchez that he should accept a demotion to the minors to regain his velocity.”

I knew when Sanchez was in that accident that he would never be the same pitcher again and it looks like my assumption was right. It appears as he pitches more and more his velocity is going down which is why all of a sudden he is getting hit and giving up runs. I don’t think sending him to the minors is going to help him get his velocity back. I think his arm is just not the same anymore. Sanchez career could be done.

Willie yesterday going out prematurely to bring up the reds batting out of order has now convinced me that he is completely clueless and is not a good manager. I hope this is his last year managing the mets.

A month or two of steady work would provide a better idea of whether Sanchez just needs to rebuild his arm strength or whether it’s time for “Goodnight, Irene.” The Mets just can’t afford to give him that opportunity on the big-league level.

I see the BEST young SHORTSTOP in baseball just signed a very long contract with Florida…. Uhoh Metsies won’t that just make you little Metsies more nutso when the Marlins win their 3rd championship while you waste all that money on not winning? Don’t you wish Jose Reyes could hit almost as good as Ramirez?

there is no doubt that Ramirez is a very good hitter but his defense at short is not very good. He is by far a better hitter than reyes but reyes is a much better fielder. I rather have my short stop a better fielder than hitter. I can see the marlins moving him to the out field down the road.

I think you metsies knock his fielding too much. He is an awesome player….... He can produce more offense than all of our starters combined, and then some. And he doesn’t seem to pout for months at a time like your Jose does.
I feel bad for your Sanchez guy. Even though he’s a Metsie having your career ruined in taxi cab really is sad sad sad. He is one metsie I’m rooting for….
Delcos you really should work down here because assuming the worst about every player is always correct here. Its only correct most of the time with the metsies….

Sanchez-Gary Cohen stated that Guy Conti does not feel that Sanchez has let the ball go yet. Let’s hope that is the issue. Does Sanchez have options? If not Joe Smith is the odd man out.

OP-If Pedro goes out and wins 8-10 games I’d bet Mets will resign him for a yr w/an option for a 2nd. Then even if OP wins 15 or so, they will claim that Boras’ demands are too high and they won’t sign him b/c they have Santana, Maine, Pedro and Pelfrey plus a scrub.

The rotation this wk-if the game is rained out tonite, then it appears that only one game will have to be pitched by a NO guy even w/the 23 games in 22 days starting 5/20. If they do not have a rain out tonite, then the NO guys will have to pitch b/w now and 6/8.

If the Mets let OP walk, just make sure they have someone better to replace him. He is frustrating but he has talent and good games. I was just thinking: suppose the Mets kept Nolan Ryan for just one more year…...

Anyways two out of three, Pelfrey pitched well in the loss, now in second behind the Marlins. Just keep building on it.

It’s not the $ amount that scares me with Ollie or pitchers in general, but the years. You don’t mind giving the years to a guy like Pedro or Johan, because they know how to pitch, so any loss of stuff and they’ll still be effective and keep you in ball games.

Ollie relies strictly on stuff. Imagine giving him 5 years and 3 years in he loses all his stuff. He would get rocked harder than Victor Z.

Keith—If you give Ollie five years and he self-destructs in Year Three, you’re only wasting money, which the Wilpons should be printing up in the basement by the third year of CitiField. The greater risk, in my opinion, is letting him walk and then trying to replace his 15 wins and top-ten ERA.

The other thing to remember is that, while Ollie relies strictly on stuff right now, there’s the chance he matures into a pitcher who can use some guile, as well. It’s hard to give up on a 26-yr-old lefty power pitcher because he’s immature.

What we have learned is that way too much faith has been given and is constantly given to Delgado. He has yet to earn it. One game doesnt absolve one. consistency absolves.
He needs to stay 7th until he actually breaks out.

Ollie needs to listen to pitching coaches. As i said earlier when he listens he excels when he thinks he is better than he is , he craps out.

As far as willie being manager, he’s probably trying to be an even handed calm manager. We can all second guess him because hindsight is 20-20.

Tiffany, I don’t measure a pitcher’s effectiveness by wins. And sure, his ERA may be low, but he allows a ton of unearned runs. Plus, look at his career. You’re willing to make a long term investment in someone with that track record?

“The other thing to remember is that, while Ollie relies strictly on stuff right now, there’s the chance he matures into a pitcher who can use some guile, as well.”

And I think the above quote isn’t very realistic. If you want to make that argument for Maine, I’ll listen to it. But Ollie has difficulty repeating his delivery and is all over the place. He’s not exactly a control specialist. Once you lose a couple of miles off the fastball and the slider doesn’t bite as much, those guys on base via walk turn into big time runs from homers.

I hear what you’re saying about the wins, but let’s not forget that Ollie’s 15 wins were supported by an ERA+ of 120. That’s very different from when Trachsel won 15 with an ERA+ of 88.

When you get right down to it, Ollie’s problems are between his ears. Power lefties with multi-pitch arsenals don’t grow on trees; I think you have to be very patient with one who has shown the ability to put it all together but suffers from occasional lapses in concentration.

The huge amount of unearned runs last year gave Ollie a deceptively good ERA (and ERA+). Not only that, but many of the errors that led to these unearned runs were his own. He’d throw a ground ball wildly to second base in an attempt to get a lead runner and it would sail into the outfield, for example. So you have to look at last year’s ERA with a grain of salt.

I think it’s too early to judge Ollie and whether or not to offer him a contract. They probably want to see how he does the rest of the year first. But even assuming he has a year as good as last year, you know the Mets probably won’t give Boras what he wants and won’t be the high bidder.

At any rate, they should offer arbitration so they get the draft pick if he leaves.

While you are correct in saying that OP gave up many unearned runs last year was not the norm for him.. He gave up 20 last year and only 20 in all his other years combined.
In his one other good year, he only gave up 6 unearned runs. The real point is that he hasn’t been a very good pitcher for most of hios career, but on the other hand Mr Koufax wasn’t very good either until around 26, so giving up on him is as much of a risk as not giving up on him.

There’s a difference between “giving up on him” and choosing not to invest 5 years and $60M in him. And invoking the name Koufax isn’t a great example. He is the exception and not the rule.

Look, I am a huge Ollie fan. I love having him on this team and I love his stuff. But, like most ballplayers who become free agents, I just don’t think he’ll be worth what he’ll get on the free market.

I’ll accept your Koufax point. Jerry Koosman had his break out year at the age of 26. Warren Spahn had his break out year at age 26. Randy Johnson had his break out year at 30. Ron Guidry had his break out year at age 26. Mike Cuellar had his break out year at age 29. Gary Peters had his break out year at age 26. Chris Short had his break out year at age 27. David Wells at age 27. Al Leiter at 30….

A question for you Keith. Why is a player not worth what the market will bear? If the market says you, in whatever profession you are in, are worth 2 million a year, are you not worth it? Aren’t you, as are ballplayers worth whatever the payer is willing to pay for your work? If the market says your value is low you don’t get the big deal like Kyle Lohse….....What am I missing, please….

ghost, because the market moves from offseason to offseason. Two offseasons ago Meche and Lily received nice sized contracts. This offseason, guys like Jeff Weave and Kyle Lohse weren’t even getting a sniff.

Plus, the market isn’t always right. Was Zito worth as much as he got, even before his implosion? I didn’t think so, and neither did the Mets, which is why they didn’t make a strong push for him.

So just because Ollie gets 5 years 60M from someone, that might only be what he was worth to that 1 team. That doesn’t mean anyone else thought he was worth that. If I were the GM of the Mets, Ollie is not the kind of player I would invest that kind of years and money in, regardless of what the market said he was worth. So if someone wants to give Ollie that many years/$, god bless ‘em. I don’t think he’s worth that, because I don’t place that kind of value on his production.

The Daisuke sweepstakes are a really great example of why the market isn’t perfect. The Mets edged out the Yankees for second, but they had bids in the same ballpark. The Sox came in and blew everyone away for Daisuke. Now the Sox look smart. Daisuke is pitching great, but like the Zito example shows, you should only set the market if you are really confident in that player. We’re talking Manny Ramirez, ARod, Jeter, Johan, Pedro type players.

Look at a guy like Billy Beane. He plays the “market” like a seasoned broker. With a high success rate, he sells high and buys low. He got fantastic performance from a guy like Haren on the cheap, sold on him before he became super expensive, and re-stocked his system with cheap and effective young arms like Eveland, Smith, and Gio Gonzalez.

I don’t know what the Mets situation will be like come this offseason. Perhaps Niese will be ready to go. Maybe another minor leaguer emerges. But even if that isn’t the case, I would personally rather give Derek Lowe 3 years for 27M or Jon Garland 4 years for 36M than Ollie 5 years at 60M.