The Great International Depression of 2008 & Beyond /

Cactus, maybe after reading Hegel, others might want to explore Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan with regard to "leap" analysis and uncertainty in markets and the world in general. In my view, Taleb's thoughts in conjunction with Mandlebrot's theories on instabilities may be of a more relevant interest to others, given the environement in which we are living. (Dontcher just luuv the name dropping ).

As for Hendry, there's no doubt in my mind that he's one sharp cookie, as the Yanks would say. His analysis of the world financial markets is somewhat refreshing as opposed to the usual tripe written in print media and the broadcast by the likes of Bloomberg. However, he's strictly talking from a business viewpoint. His concerns are circumscribed, imo, by a strict narrative of wealth accumulation. The social and environmental considerations are secondary, if that. That which frees him to make money is good. That which hinders large accumulation of wealth is bad. It seems the rest can go hang. Although, I must say I do share his concerns with the continuing erosion of civil liberties.

Jesus how does anyone make head or tail of Hegel Cactus have you read the Phenomenology of Spirit? I think I might have got ten pages into it - it must be a record. Totally impenetrable (although I was only 20 and more interested in doing other stuff) If you can start on a thread about it it'd be mighty - I wouldn't mind exploring his ideas again - I know he was the basis for Marxism with the Dialectic - that's about all I remember.

rocky

How do we know your man Hendry isn't acting with the drama hysteria up there to get people into inflating the price of gold ? He knows he has a big audience - he's very sharp and is perhaps playing half of America with his tale of Doom. Ok the stock market is knackered at the moment but could the likes of him influence it through the media ? At first glance it sounds ridiculous but could the like of him literally talk it down ?

I had your thought too Auditor#9. He was well wrong footed when he had to admit he only talks about shares when they are on the way up and gets out fast when they are on the way down. I see gold being promoted in the Irish papers today. Clearly not a good sign. There is every chance that places like China and India might sell a lot to keep their economic growth going. Gold is a gamble.

It was telling that he considered a 10% fall in wealth over the coming year to be a good result.

Hugh Hendry on the January Stimulus Bill. - Euro will Collapse due to the PIIGS which need a 'lower' currency.

"The tragedy is that, owing to mistakes made, predominantly in the stock markets and in the political class, society has lost its confidence. The great revolution that emerged in the early 1980s with Thatcherism and the embracing of Milton-Friedman-like economic policies was that we shouldn't be fearful of mistakes and failure - that we should be proud of failure and get it behind us - recognise it and get it behind us.

And we've replaced in the last 30 years - we've replaced smoke stack industries in the UK and in America with cutting-edge businesses which have employed thousands of great people - that's what you get by embracing failure - allowing businesses, dinosaurs to fail. And the tragedy is we've lost that bravado. These businesses are failures, these businesses are a blight on the great character of American enterprise, their executives are a blight on the great character of previous great American executives and it'd be better for them to be replaced and I promise you that once we get a deal signed and there will be a deal signed then the stock market will go down because there's nothing bullish about preserving dinosaurs in your economy."

There speaks a man whose only concern is the bottom line of financial performance. It is no bother to him if manufacture stops in the US as his money can follow it to wherever it has migrated.

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rockyracoon wrote:

Cactus, maybe after reading Hegel, others might want to explore Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan with regard to "leap" analysis and uncertainty in markets and the world in general. In my view, Taleb's thoughts in conjunction with Mandlebrot's theories on instabilities may be of a more relevant interest to others, given the environement in which we are living. (Dontcher just luuv the name dropping ).

As for Hendry, there's no doubt in my mind that he's one sharp cookie, as the Yanks would say. His analysis of the world financial markets is somewhat refreshing as opposed to the usual tripe written in print media and the broadcast by the likes of Bloomberg. However, he's strictly talking from a business viewpoint. His concerns are circumscribed, imo, by a strict narrative of wealth accumulation. The social and environmental considerations are secondary, if that. That which frees him to make money is good. That which hinders large accumulation of wealth is bad. It seems the rest can go hang. Although, I must say I do share his concerns with the continuing erosion of civil liberties..........................All I know about the black swan is that cute cartoon that was on one of the threads. What is the idea?

The debate as to whether or not Germany would support any of the flotilla of sinking ships that surround the eurozone has been going back and fore both in Germany and outside for the last couple of weeks.

This bearish article from Bloomsberg talks about Germany cutting loose from the euro.

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Hayman Advisors LP, the firm that earned $500 million betting on the U.S. subprime mortgage-market collapse, says Europe’s monetary union is about to fall apart.

Richard Howard, a managing director for global markets at Dallas-based Hayman, said Germany may opt to shore up its own economy, Europe’s biggest, rather than bail out fellow euro nations such as Austria, Italy and Spain as their banks sag under the weight of bad debts. That might lead to defaults and compel Germany to renounce the euro, he said.

“People said subprime could never blow up but it did and now they’re saying the exact same thing about the eurozone,” said Howard. “There’s no stopping what is now a downward spiral.” He declined to discuss his investments.

Hayman joins a growing number of investors seeing the possibility of a breakup of the $12 trillion euro bloc, conceived more than 10 years ago to cut unemployment, tame inflation and create a rival to the dollar. Societe Generale SA said this week Germany may refuse a bailout in an election year. ABN Amro Holding NV said Feb. 17 the crisis is “Europe’s subprime.”

Euro-region bank loans to Eastern Europe topped $1.3 trillion in the third quarter last year, or about 9 percent of the bloc’s gross domestic product, ING Groep NV said Feb. 18, citing Bank for International Settlements data. Now lenders face losses after extending credit to finance everything from industrial development to domestic real estate.

Irish banks took on debt equivalent to 11 times the nation’s own gross domestic product, Dutch-bank credit reached seven times GDP and Belgium four times, according to BNP Paribas SA.

There is no agreement as to whether Germany will provide any form of support for sinking euro economies. It seems likely that big efforts will be exerted to stop the eurozone falling apart, but whether or not they will succeed is an unknown.

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Debt-Default Insurance

As concern intensified that the loans won’t be repaid, the cost to insure against defaults jumped six-fold to records since August. Credit-default swaps on Ireland climbed to a record 395.8 basis points, from less than 50 basis points in September, according to CMA DataVision. Austrian swaps traded at 265 basis points, compared with less than 25 points six months ago.

The breakup may occur as investors shun all but the safest government bonds, said Hayman, which in 2006 was among the first to bet against Wall Street’s rush to securitize the debt of the least creditworthy U.S. borrowers, correctly predicting a slump in home values that sparked the global credit crisis.

Merkel is trying to organise some kind of co-ordination of Bond issues, to avoid competition between different States pushing up costs of borrowing.

Of course there is a certain interpretative room to manoeuvre in the stability and growth pact and a country like Ireland that has been hit quite hard by the banking crisis is clearly in a different situation to a country like Slovakia with fewer banks and where the distorting forces at work are weaker,” Merkel said in remarks to reporters.“We have shown solidarity and that will remain so. We should use Sunday’s summit for member states affected to give an honest report of their situation.

“We will have to discuss the situation in each individual country. It all depends on whether we are able to speak openly and honestly about the situation because there are a lot of rumours flying around

Merkel doesn't have a free hand as elections are coming in Germany and any massive bailout proposals would be likely to be deeply unpopular.

That's creepy now. Would all our debt then become in Deutschmarks or Neumarks or whatever ? We'd have no choice but to start thinking of self sufficiency then.

I'm not going to think along these lines right now out loud anyway but just to say there's a thread on the pin I'm sure which discusses the issue of Euro bonds or Germany buying bonds from Ireland or something. They don't want to Quantitatively Ease anyway it seems.

Actually I think I could have heard it on Morning Ireland this morning - I'll post a link now http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0227/morningireland_av.html?2498535,null,209 sorry it's not indexed - I think the article was near the end and the guest dismissed the idea of a bond purchase at a low interest rate of around 2% for Ireland instead of Germany directly buying Irish debt.

There speaks a man whose only concern is the bottom line of financial performance. It is no bother to him if manufacture stops in the US as his money can follow it to wherever it has migrated.

Quote :

rockyracoon wrote:

Cactus, maybe after reading Hegel, others might want to explore Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan with regard to "leap" analysis and uncertainty in markets and the world in general. In my view, Taleb's thoughts in conjunction with Mandlebrot's theories on instabilities may be of a more relevant interest to others, given the environement in which we are living. (Dontcher just luuv the name dropping ).

As for Hendry, there's no doubt in my mind that he's one sharp cookie, as the Yanks would say. His analysis of the world financial markets is somewhat refreshing as opposed to the usual tripe written in print media and the broadcast by the likes of Bloomberg. However, he's strictly talking from a business viewpoint. His concerns are circumscribed, imo, by a strict narrative of wealth accumulation. The social and environmental considerations are secondary, if that. That which frees him to make money is good. That which hinders large accumulation of wealth is bad. It seems the rest can go hang. Although, I must say I do share his concerns with the continuing erosion of civil liberties..........................All I know about the black swan is that cute cartoon that was on one of the threads. What is the idea?

Hugh of Eclectica is always worth listening to. He is always a good and entertaining communicator. There is a kind of optimism about him that I do not entirely share. He believes that failed institutions should be allowed to fail, I tend to agree with that view as bailing out pulls resources from successful sectors. Banks have failed in the past etc. I agree let them go and pick up the pieces. However the idea that you can forever reinvent new and wonderful products, or business models, that command premium is perhaps an over demanding challenge.

You cannot forever do this if your prime costs are much higher than those you are competing against. You are running as fast as you can to keep ahead of the game and you only need to trip once and you are behind.

In a period of deleveraging and deflation he sees bonds as a safe return. I think you would need to keep your eyes and ears wide open certainly as we head into 2010. The important event is when deflation stops and inflation kicks in. To my eyes long bonds in particular are over value and will decline when the cycle turns.

On gold I would agree with him. It is a commodity like all others. There was a lot of profit taking in gold recently. It is far too high for anyone sane to buy into, it will only rise if fear levels go up. Fear not intrinsic value will drive prices up. Gold's worth is only what we give it. Its prime use is jewellery and electronics, once you hit 700-800 dollars an ounce (max) the jewellery business bows out and what you are left with is speculation, another bubble. It is not a safe bet, but is worth keeping an eye on.

On the Eurozone, what is difficult to gauge here is the internal politics. There are political and economic consequences for Germany if it were to leave the Eurozone or hinder measures that would help the PIIGS. Germany is not as strong as many seem to think and cannot afford a Europe in chaos around it. There is a lot of German investment in Eastern Europe. Would Germany be prepared to see Austria go to the dogs, not a chance. The ECB will find a way to induce financial easement, by some oblique slight of hand. Angela Merkel is a pragmatist, whilst she could win an election on a strong pro German stance (mirror of British politics) she would alienate business support. I think Europe will try to muddle through. Here is a nice little map that outlines the various economies in Europe.

The idea that there are strong and weak in Europe is a bad way to go in the current situation. Few countries are strong in this mess. It would be better to take measures that would enable the value of the Euro to float down. That is the market being allowed to correct. This will not lead to inflation if governments accept that there are other ways than base rate to control money supply. It is their responsibility and high time they accepted it.

What I would like to see is a Europe where most of the tax policy was local, and I mean very local, not Ireland, UK etc.

What I would like to see is a Europe where most of the tax policy was local, and I mean very local, not Ireland, UK etc.

I've my own rudimentary ideas on this but why do you see very local taxes as desirable ? I believe that in some parts of the planet localities vote annually on whether tax should be raised or lowered too - thus there would be a choice by the public as to whether or not to put money available for public projects - water, schools, hospitals etc.

That's a good site Squire - unfortunately I wasn't able to see the map. I wonder if anyone could grap it and post it as an image?

What you are saying about gold makes sense. Read recently that the Chinese are selling to fund development. There is always the chance of one or more governments selling off a quantity of gold if they are broke. There is talk about the IMF selling gold too. Presumably, that would tend to knock the price down in the short - medium term.

That is unfortunate re the map as it is interactive. Click on the country and some key stats come up. Germany is not as healthy as many think!

Auditor #9 wrote:

Back with a bang Squire.

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What I would like to see is a Europe where most of the tax policy was local, and I mean very local, not Ireland, UK etc.

I've my own rudimentary ideas on this but why do you see very local taxes as desirable ? I believe that in some parts of the planet localities vote annually on whether tax should be raised or lowered too - thus there would be a choice by the public as to whether or not to put money available for public projects - water, schools, hospitals etc.

Audi been doing a bit of travelling, had to go to Interlaken and also bought some land last week. Basically I am starting to wind up again and the doom and gloom lot can continue to chew on their toe nails. There is going to be good bargains early 2010 and you need to prepare now.

With regards local tax, basically I think that most tax should be local to pay for local services. Health, education and the like. It means that there is a possibility that you can trace what you pay to where it is spent. If you decide high tax and people and business leave then reality quickly kicks back in. Or you could easily have an area that accepted high personal tax for quality services.

There is a lot of nonsense about currencies and National identity. Within say Ireland having its own currency may work for say Dublin but not for Mayo. So the problem of differential growth rates applies be it Germany, EU, UK or Ireland. So you need to allow local areas to set their own tax and spend policy to counter balance.

Stole this from Auditor's post on another thread:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/4864532/Breaking-point-for-the-eurozone.html

tonys - my firewall is blocking RTE's videos. Hopefully I will find the piece I'm talking about in in print in the morning.

This article is followed by some very interesting comments on Ireland's position, and also on Germany's. There is disagreement in Germany and an election coming up. They also may simply not be in the position to bail anyone out. At the moment, it is yet another unknown.

And never let it be forgotten - though there was once upon a time in Boston a Tea Party, the current Tannic Revolution got re-begun here first on MN! We've even moved beyond teaconomics now into the area of teacosystems and how worms get heartburn 5 times more than other creatures when they drink tea (see worms thread)

We lost 6500 jobs in January - doesn't sound as bad as January's losses although it breaks down to 300 a day according to the Irish Times. Is the rate of losses slowing down ? The losses have to bottom out at some point - we could be nearing it now here, something tells me.

Karl Denninger, the "tickerguy" receiving an award for grassroots journalism. He blames for corruption for destroying the American credit markets.

His speech is a defense of conservatism in finance, transparency and "rugged individualism". It is also a very brief and scathing account of the current problems which the American mortgage market has created and consumerism has compounded.

For a finish he simply calls for lawful justice for those who were involved.

Bernanke says he is very unhappy about AIG looking for a bailout because they operated like a casino hedge fund when they should have been behaving like an Insurance Company, whatever it is that insurance companies normally do with their cash ...

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March 3 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said American International Group Inc. operated like a hedge fund and having to rescue the company made him “more angry” than any other episode during the financial crisis.

Bernanke made the comments in response to a question from Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, at the Senate Budget Committee hearing today in Washington.

“If there is a single episode in this entire 18 months that has made me more angry, I can’t think of one other than AIG,” Bernanke said. “AIG exploited a huge gap in the regulatory system, there was no oversight of the financial-products division, this was a hedge fund basically that was attached to a large and stable insurance company.”

The insurer will get as much as $30 billion in new government capital and relaxed terms on its bailout after posting the worst loss by any U.S. corporation yesterday. Bernanke’s comments foreshadow more regulation of systemically important financial companies even if they aren’t banks.

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AIG “made huge numbers of irresponsible bets, took huge losses, there was no regulatory oversight because there was a gap in the system,” Bernanke said. At the same time, officials “had no choice but to try and stabilize the system” by aiding the firm.

I was watching Bloomberg or listening to Pat Kenny the other day and some Aussie was on there proudly saying that theirs was the only economy in the world that was growing. Growing feckin watermelons, rabbits and 'roos ... How the hell did they think they could get away with it for much longer ?

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Australian Economy Shrinks, First Time in Eight Years (Update1)

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Australia’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the fourth quarter for the first time in eight years as exports and housing slumped, increasing pressure on the central bank to add to a record round of interest-rate cuts.

Meanwhile the Chinese are focusing on Social Welfare in order to keep a lid on growing social unrest.

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China Lawmakers Prioritize Welfare as Slowdown Threatens Unrest

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- China’s parliament convenes its annual meeting tomorrow, seeking solutions to an economic slump that is fueling pockets of social unrest after 20 million workers lost their jobs.

Premier Wen Jiabao, who’ll kick off proceedings with China’s equivalent of the U.S. State of the Union address, may shed more light on a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package and a campaign to expand health and welfare coverage.