Expectations of electric car boom were based on 'wildly optimistic' forecasts
from industry, top civil servant claims

Electric car sales have failed to live up to government hype because ministers were misled by “wildly optimistic” forecasts from car manufacturers, a leading civil servant has claimed.

Richard Bruce, head of the Office for Low Emission Vehicles, said “miscalculations” by car companies led to official projections of a surge in demand for green cars which has not yet materialised.

The inaccurate calculations led to the provision of a £400 million package to encourage the take-up of electric cars, including £5,000 grants for motorists buying the vehicles, but the funding pot has since been lowered to £230 million amid lower than anticipated interest.

Demand also suffered initially because of the small range of electric vehicles which did not cater for the needs of all motorists, but this problem is disappearing as more models come to market, he said.

Mr Bruce added that “hostility” from the media, including a Telegraph report highlighting the disparity between government projections and actual sales, was also a “significant issue” for the sector, while many consumers still have “range anxiety” despite improvements in the battery life of vehicles and the provision of more than 6,000 charging points across the UK.

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Writing on the Civil Service Quarterly blog, he said: “Initial projections and budgeting were based on the car companies’ estimates of how many units they would sell, which turned out to be wildly optimistic.

“There are other issues as well. For the first few years very few cars were available. If you wanted to buy an estate to fit the dogs in the back, or a sports utility vehicle you had to buy a petrol or diesel car. That’s now changing, with manufacturers bringing a wider range of vehicles to market."

Despite these problems, he insisted that “the tide is turning” and the shift to greener vehicles in Britain is “inevitable”, with the number of motorists claiming subsidies for the vehicles rising 600 per cent between January 2013 and 2014.

“Overall, it’s clear that this technology will only become normal when people see their neighbours plugging their car in to charge, see their colleagues driving one to work, or their friends booking a test drive,” he said.

“The tide is turning. We gave out 600 percent more in subsidies for new cars in January 2014 than we did in January 2013. So, despite what the media might suggest, this isn’t a failed policy. In fact it’s just a long term policy.”

Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation, said: “Only one thing will lead to a mass market for the greenest cars: a competitive price. At the right price anything can be sold. But most consumers calculate that even with the subsidies on offer these vehicles do not currently make economic sense.

"This is not the fault of the media. Ultimately what is needed is a big leap in battery technology, to increase range and reduce manufacturing costs. That is not yet in sight.”