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The United States wants a World Trade Organization dispute resolution panel get involved in a disagreement over "international retaliation over U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter," Companies that may be impacted include Alcoa (AA), Century Aluminum (CENX), U.S. Steel (X) and Nucor (NUE). Reference Link

Morgan Stanley analyst Piyush Sood noted that U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs were left in place under the USMCA agreement, but President Trump said they were only being left in place "until such time as we can do something that would be different, like quotas." Replacing U.S. import tariffs on Canadian aluminum with duty-free quotas could add about $150M to Alcoa's annual EBITDA, calculated Sood, who said that equates to about a 10% potential upside in the stock "that the market has so far ignored." The analyst, who sees Alcoa's Q3 results coming in ahead of expectations, keeps an Overweight rating and $57 price target on the shares.

10/18/18

JPMS

10/18/18NO CHANGETarget $79JPMSOverweight

Alcoa price target raised to $79 from $75 at JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Michael Gambardella raised his price target for Alcoa to $79 saying the company last night reported a "solid Q3 beat" and continues to operate well in "turbulent" alumina and aluminum markets. With a $200M buyback program announced, the analyst thinks Alcoa will use its cash going forward for repurchases and to continue to reduce its debt and pension obligations. He believes the stock price is "discounting too steep of a drop in alumina and aluminum prices." Gambardella keeps an Overweight rating on Alcoa.

10/18/18

FBCO

10/18/18NO CHANGETarget $58FBCOOutperform

Alcoa too cheap to ignore, says Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth believes Alcoa is "significantly undervalued" and thinks the strong operating performance in Q3 and continued tightness in alumina set the stage for meaningful earnings revisions across the Street. The analyst reiterates an Outperform rating and $58 price target on the shares.

10/18/18

BMOC

10/18/18NO CHANGETarget $75BMOCOutperform

Alcoa remains 'meaningfully undervalued', says BMO Capital

BMO Capital analyst David Gagliano kept his Outperform rating and $75 price target on Alcoa after its Q3 earnings beat and additional $200M stock buyback, maintaining his view that the shares are "meaningfully undervalued" even under the "risk-off" environment assumptions. The analyst notes that the company's earnings beat was driven by its aluminum segment profitability thanks to the strong contributions from energy and flat-rolled products. Gagliano also contends that there is a disconnect between Alcoa valuation multiples typically seen at the peak of the underlying pricing cycle and its compressed marginal cost prices.

CENXCentury Aluminum

$9.91

-0.23 (-2.27%)

10/02/18

DBAB

10/02/18DOWNGRADETarget $15DBABHold

Century Aluminum downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Terry downgraded Century Aluminum to Hold and lowered his price target for the shares to $15 from $20. The analyst sees growing risks and reduced upside potential at current share levels.

10/02/18

DBAB

10/02/18DOWNGRADETarget $15DBABHold

Deutsche downgrades Century Aluminum on growing risks, reduced upside

Deutsche Bank analyst Jeremy Kliewer downgraded Century Aluminum to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $15 from $20. Century's margins could remain pressured for longer due to alumina supply disruptions, Kliewer tells investors in a research note. Further, the analyst feels little progress has been made with Santee Cooper, the electrical supplier at the company's Mt. Holly smelter, and that support for import tariffs may decline further following the November mid-term elections. As such, the analyst sees reduced upside potential and growing risk for Century Aluminum shares.

10/02/18

10/02/18NO CHANGE

Fly Intel: Today's top analyst calls on Wall Street

Check out today's top analyst calls from around Wall Street, compiled by The Fly. GE UPGRADED AT RBC, WOLFE: RBC Capital analyst Deane Dray upgraded General Electric (GE) to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised his price target for the shares to $15 from $13. The analyst believes a floor has been put in the shares following news of Larry Culp being named Chairman and CEO. Additionally, GE was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research. DEUTSCHE SEES HEIGHTENED RISKS TO FACEBOOK ESTIMATES: After attending the first day of AdWeek, Deutsche Bank analyst Lloyd Walmsley sees heightened risk to the Q3, Q4 and 2019 consensus estimates for Facebook (FB). The analyst said he's starting to hear more cautious feedback and that Facebook seems on the defensive, particularly following last week's data breach disclosure. Walmsley, however, continues to view Facebook as attractively valued and kept a Buy rating on the shares with a $205 price target. JPMORGAN ADDS WEIGHT WATCHERS TO FOCUS LIST: JPMorgan analyst Christina Brathwaite added Weight Watchers (WTW) to her firm's America's Analyst Focus while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares with a $120 price target. The stock's 30% pullback from its peak on June 20 presents a "compelling entry point for investors who missed the stock's appreciation the first time around," Brathwaite said. Despite the post-earnings selloff, the analyst believes the Q2 print was actually indicative that Weight Watchers' growth story remains on track. Further, she believes the changes announced last week, including its new rewards program, as well as the company's Invite a Friend program, will help drive member recruitment and retention going forward. AMBEV DOUBLE DOWNGRADED BY UBS: UBS analyst Alan Alanis double downgraded Ambev (ABEV) to Sell from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to R$17 from R$23. AmBev trades at a 25% higher valuation than parent company AB InBev (BUD), which is unwarranted, Alanis believes. He believes Ambev shares at current levels are more than pricing in the company's favorable outlook. Further, he expects consensus estimates to come down due to a tougher competitive environment, a "tepid" Brazilian economic recovery and currency headwinds. DEUTSCHE DOWNGRADES METAL STOCKS: Deutsche Bank analyst Jeremy Kliewer downgraded Century Aluminum to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $15 from $20, stating that Century's margins could remain pressured for longer due to alumina supply disruptions. Meanwhile, Deutsche's Chris Terry downgraded Reliance Steel (RS) to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $90 from $100, and downgraded U.S. Steel (X) to Hold from Buy and lowered his price target for the shares to $35 from $47. The analyst said his view on the steel sector is "moderating post peak pricing." Most positive data points and catalysts have now largely played out, Terry believes.

10/04/18

RILY

10/04/18NO CHANGETarget $20RILYBuy

Century Aluminum price target lowered to $20 from $23 at B. Riley FBR

B. Riley FBR analyst Lucas Pipes lowered his price target for Century Aluminum to $20 after adjusting his estimates for the company and Aloca (AA) to reflect expected Q3 price realizations and his firm's upgraded long-term price deck. The analyst keeps a Buy rating on the shares.

XU.S. Steel

$27.91

-0.27 (-0.96%)

10/02/18

10/02/18DOWNGRADE

On The Fly: Top five analyst downgrades

Catch up on today's top five analyst downgrades with this list compiled by The Fly: 1. Goldman downgraded ConocoPhillips (COP) to Neutral following share outperformance with analyst Neil Mehta citing valuation. 2. U.S. Steel (X) and Reliance Steel (RS) were downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank. 3. Unilever (UN, UL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies with analyst Martin Deboo saying the company is facing "choppier waters" and "higher expectations." 4. Ambev (ABEV) double downgraded to Sell from Buy at UBS with analyst Alan Alanis saying AmBev trades at a 25% higher valuation than parent company AB InBev (BUD), which is unwarranted. 5. Schlumberger (SLB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Tudor Pickering. This list is just a portion of The Fly's full analyst coverage. To see The Fly's full Street Research coverage, click here.

10/11/18

GHSC

10/11/18INITIATIONTarget $35GHSCBuy

U.S. Steel initiated with a Buy at Seaport Global

Seaport Global analyst Derek Hernandez initiated U.S. Steel with a Buy and $35 price target saying the company offers a discounted valuation with upcoming catalysts. Hernandez expects labor negotiations will be resolved without a material disruption and expects material 2019+ earnings upside on higher volumes and increased realizations.

10/15/18

FBCO

10/15/18NO CHANGEFBCONeutral

Credit Suisse downgrades U.S. Steel sector along with three stocks

Credit Suisse analyst Curt Woodworth downgraded his view on the U.S. Steel sector to Market Weight from Overweight due to concerns with new supply entering the sheet market as well as with U.S demand as interest rates rise. The analyst sees "limited potential for multiple expansion given late cycle fears." Further, in addition to cycle concerns and new supply risk, capital allocation by companies has disappointed relative to investors "wish lists," Woodworth tells investors in a research note. Along with the sector, the analyst downgraded Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) to Neutral from Outperform. Woodworth keeps Outperform ratings on US Steel (X) and AK Steel (AKS) as he sees upside to Street estimates on better 2019 contract pricing as well as more attractive valuations relative to historical forward multiples.

NUENucor

$58.26

-0.85 (-1.44%)

10/02/18

DBAB

10/02/18NO CHANGEDBAB

Deutsche downgrades Reliance, U.S. Steel on more cautious steel stance

To reflect a more cautious view on steel stocks, Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Terry downgraded both Reliance Steel (RS) and U.S. Steel (X) to Hold from Buy. The analyst says his view on the sector is "moderating post peak pricing." Most positive data points and catalysts have now largely played out, Terry tells investors in a research note. The analyst, however, keeps Buy ratings on Commercial Metals (CMC), Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) citing more favorable risk/reward profiles.

10/11/18

GHSC

10/11/18INITIATIONTarget $75GHSCBuy

Nucor initiated with a Buy, a top pick at Seaport Global

Seaport Global analyst Derek Hernandez initiated Nucor with a Buy and $75 price target saying it is a top pick among steels. Hernandez said Nucor has a strong strategic position in the US steel sector and will continue to benefit from elevated US steel pricing and is gaining share in higher value-added products. The analyst adds, Nucor's recent $2B buyback program is an excellent opportunity for the company to efficiently return capital at an attractive valuation.