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January 06, 2015

I always like to start the New Year by making a bunch of predictions, but have been beaten to it this year by the Financial Times. Therefore, I will make some specific banking and technology predictions this week but, as I like to look at the economic and social changes in the year, the easier way to begin this is to use the FT’s columnists’ views and share my own opinions of agreement or disagreement. I won’t go through them all, as there are many, but here are the key ones that I’ve picked on.

January 02, 2015

No one knows how this will work out. The sanctions are hurting Russia but Putin won't back down easily, as it would be a serious loss of face.

In recent talks with Angela Merkel, it is clear that he will not back down in fact. Meanwhile, the Americans are conflicted about the Ukraine and pretty much want to stay out of it. Sanctions are ok, but military action? Forget it.

So what is next? I don't know but I did find three articles discussing the future that are worth reading. The first is about Europe's position, the second America's and the third Russia's.

January 01, 2015

For Europe, it's been a quite a challenge dealing with the Ukrainian situation. For a start, it's a country that has a large part of the population wanting to have closer integration with Europe, with dialogue about Ukraine integration into the EU for some time. However, as can be seen from yesterday's discussion, the Ukraine has been a Russian and then Soviet state for three centuries, and such separations are politically highly sensitive, which is why we have this current stand-off.

It is also difficult for Europe to respond, as Angela Merkel has kept the region fairly neutral in terms of instabilities overseas. Just look at the war on terror or the current situation with ISIS if you want to see that neutrality.

However, Merkel cannot be neutral on the Ukraine crisis as it's on our doorstep. Equally, the US and UK did sign a treaty in 1994 to protect the Ukraine. This is known as the Budapest agreement, and many Ukrainians are resentful of the lack of action of the UK and USA to support them militarily since the Russian aggression. Rightly so, some would say.

It's all a very difficult discussion, and even if Russia does eventually back down which is unlikely, the liklihood of the Ukraine joining the European Union is not a done deal by a long stretch. For further insight into this area, it's well worth reading this summary from Open Democracy:

December 31, 2014

I have several Russian friends who have explained some of the background here. We also should remember that many of our colleagues in Poland, Germany and other nations grew up in a Russian society, so this is no clear cut structure.

For example, until the 1950s, Crimea was Russia's health resort and the majority of those living in Crimea today are ethnic Russians. That is almost 1,200,000 or around 58.3 percent of the population, according to the last national census conducted back in 2001. 24 percent are Ukrainians (around 500,000) and 12 percent are Crimean Tatars. Even then, 97 percent of the Crimean population speak Russian as their main language.

It is for these reasons why many Russians still think of the Crimea as Russian, particularly as Krushchev just gave away the country to Ukraine in 1954 as a symbolic gesture to celebrate the fact that the Ukraine had been a Russian and then Soviet state for 300 years.

This is why, since the end of the Cold War, the Ukraine has spent much of the time in a delicate position between Eur0pe and Russia. A balance which President Yanukovytch tipped over the edge.

Now that Russia has annexed the Crimea back into their empire, the reason for the troubles in Eastern Ukraine continuing is that Russia also needs to annex some of East Ukraine in order to have an access route to the Crimea.

It's a complex situation that is not easily summarised, but the best article I've seen on this subject from a Russian viewpoint was published recently by The National Interest. I'm reproducing that article here for background purposes.

November 10, 2014

I just took part in a panel debate about the shape of the global economy. As a renowned economist (?), I was honoured to be invited and gave my views alongside Shah Gilani, editor of Money Morning and The Money Map Report, and chaired by Andrew J. Barden, Bloomberg’s managing editor for international government in Europe and the Middle East.

As the discussion progressed, it became gloomier and gloomier. We began talking about regulation, which I described as a reformation of the system.

June 11, 2014

It is interesting to hear the non-stop debate about the UK housing market bubble (and it is a bubble); the settling of the European markets after the sovereign debt crisis; the burgeoning US economy that is getting back to normal superpower status; whilst China will be the #1 economy by 2018; and other bullish market statements.

October 07, 2013

This week I’m travelling across Asia, soaking up the changes
and developments here.

What’s intriguing is the first debate is about the ASEAN
economies and how they are adapting to change.

The speaker is a highly respected Professor and Economist,
and he talks about how the world is changing from a US-axis focus to a
multi-geographic focus where Asia’s centrifugal point was Japan but is now
China; Europe’s is Britain, France and Germany; the North Americas is America, whilst
the South is Brazil; not forgetting an African continent dominated by South
Africa; and a Middle East focused upon Saudi oil.

July 25, 2013

During my trip to Africa, we had a few days out at the magnificent
Victoria Falls. An amazing natural
wonder of the world, particularly from the Zimbabwean side of the falls where
you can walk the 1.8 kilometres opposite the massively flowing waters.

I mention this because I’ve known about Zimbabwe’s currency explosion
for a while, but seeing the aftermath of the currency’s implosion it shows how
money makes the world go around … or not, as the case may be.

January 10, 2013

I received a bunch of stats and facts from one of my readers
last week lookiing at public (governmental) debt across various countries and geographies, and comparing internal debt (money
borrowed within country) with external debt (money borrowed from overseas).

September 05, 2012

One of the key areas to consider is also where all this goes
in the future.

That’s what I thought would be good to talk about today.

I should be clear that the focal point here being where
anonymous and occupy go in the future, rather than how the cyberwars play
out. That’s something I’ll come back to
tomorrow as it’s worth a chat about Stuxnet and the potential for corporate cyberwars.

But circling back to wikileaks, anonymous and the power of
one, we are seeing an emergence of a new form of crowdsourced activism.