000
FXUS63 KDLH 021800
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS. THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH. THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING. WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW. IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST. CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.
HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR AND CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
THEN...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO THE
REGION...SPREADING MID CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MVFR DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN IFR TO LIFR LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 25 18 24 -6 / 0 80 90 0
INL 25 18 19 -11 / 10 50 50 10
BRD 28 20 22 -8 / 10 90 90 10
HYR 26 19 26 -6 / 0 90 100 10
ASX 26 19 28 -1 / 0 80 90 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP