According to the Guardian/ICM poll, 48% of respondents thought David Cameron was doing a good job, against 43% who thought he was doing a bad job – a +5 point gap. George Osborne's score was at -2. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA Archive/Press Association Ima

David Cameron is ending 2011 on a high, according to a new Guardian/ICM poll. The main parties remain stuck in a political deadlock as the year draws to a close, but the prime minister is outpolling his own government and Labour's leader, Ed Miliband.

After 12 months in which a nascent economic recovery fizzled out, Cameron retains a positive personal rating of five points – the gap between the 48% who think he is doing a good job and the 43% who say he is doing a bad one.

The survey finds a country which is approaching the new year with many anxieties, and unimpressed by the performance of the government as a whole. Almost half (47%) of respondents say the coalition is doing a bad job as against 39% who say it is doing well, an eight-point gap which plunges the coalition as a whole into negative territory.

The prime minister is the only one of Britain's leading political figures to be enjoying favourable ratings. Nick Clegg's net score is -19 percentage points, Miliband's is -17 points while the chancellor, George Osborne, is at -2.

After Cameron's veto of a European treaty this month, a clutch of polls showed the Tories breaking into the lead, with an ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph suggesting they were six points clear of Labour.

But the Brussels bounce for the party seems to have faded somewhat: the Conservatives are up by just one point compared to their position in the last Guardian/ICM poll on 37%.

That puts them a single point ahead of Labour, who have slipped back two points in a month to stand on 36%. The Liberal Democrats are up one point to 15%.

But more detailed polling on the prime minister's own ratings suggests that the gains in terms of his own personal standing are proving more sustained. By a 10-point margin of 50% to 40%, voters judge him to be "good in a crisis", an attribute which pollsters say is especially valued in political leaders.

For Miliband the position is dramatically different, with just 21% deeming him to be good in a crisis against 44% who take the opposite view, a deficit of 23 points.

Cameron also rates highly on having "the courage to say what is right rather than what is popular". A clear majority of respondents, 55%, describe the prime minister that way as against just 37% who say the reverse.

By contrast, Ed Miliband's performance on this score is evenly balanced, with respective figures of 41% and 43%.

A clear majority of voters regard both leaders as being backed by their own parties: 59% for Miliband and 63% for Cameron. Only on the question of being in touch does the prime minister appear more vulnerable. By a crushing margin of 59% to 34% respondents reject the suggestion that the old Etonian "understands people like me". Miliband does somewhat better on this score, even though – by a margin of 47% to 37% – voters do not believe that he understands them.

Most troubling of all for Miliband and his party is Labour's failure to make progress on the all-important financial battleground. Asked to put their own voting intentions to one side and consider which team is better able to "manage the economy properly", 44% of respondents plumped for Cameron and Osborne, as against just 23% who preferred Miliband and the shadow chancellor, Ed Balls. The 21-point gap in the favour of the Conservatives is almost twice as large as the 11-point margin they enjoyed on this count in October's Guardian/ICM poll.

At the end of a year which has seen both a renewed rise in unemployment and an unexpectedly sharp jump in the cost of living, Labour will be especially dismayed by these results.

The findings come in the wake of reports about Labour's high command growing restive about its failure to break through on the economy. A defiant Balls claimed last week that, with the chancellor missing his borrowing targets this autumn, voters would start to turn Labour's way next year. But there is no sign of that happening in this poll, even though it is brimming with evidence of an unseasonally gloomy mood.

By a margin of two to one, respondents say they are spending less on "presents, food, drink and other festivities" this Christmas – 40% report having cut back on last year, as against 19% who report spending more. Some 38% say they spent the same as last time. There is something of a political gap: 42% of Labour and Lib Dem voters have cut back, as against just 32% of Conservatives.

Asked about overall confidence in the economy and their financial position, a regular ICM tracking question, 44% report feeling confident against 55% who say the opposite, an 11-point gap – a statistically insignificant one point down on last month. The proportion of respondents who are "not at all confident" – 21% – is as high as it ever was during the dog days of the original 2008-2009 slump.

Looking ahead to next year, voters fully expect the hard times to continue. By 62% to 27%, an overwhelming 35-point gap, the public believes Britain will get less rather than more prosperous next year.

That view is shared across age ranges and social classes and just about holds even among Conservatives, who predict things will get worse by a wafer thin one-point margin of 45% to 44%.

That verdict is in line with the message Cameron gave to his own backbenchers at a private meeting this month, where he said 2012 could be the toughest year yet. But the public's pessimism is even deeper. By 68% to 27%, respondents reject claims that by the end of next year the economy will have "started to turn the corner", and believe instead that the UK will "still be stuck in a downturn".

The prime minister last month renewed his push to measure national wellbeing, but the nation is in no mood to smile. By a two-to-one margin, 60% of voters say Britain will be "a more miserable country" next year as against 30% who expect a happier 2012. Likewise, ministerial talk about shared sacrifices is falling on deaf ears. By a margin of 65% to 27% voters expect Britain to become more, rather than less, divided next year, even if they are in no mood to punish the man who is presiding over the widening of the chasm.

•ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 20-21 December 2011. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules