Named after the three cities I live in, this blog will focus on Israeli, Palestinian, and Turkish politics and social issues. In addition, I will periodically cover other topics related to the Middle East.

Monday, June 29, 2015

*A special thanks goes out to photo-journalist Nick Ashdown for the incredible photos! What a disgrace. Istanbul's 13th Annual Pride March was violently dispersed by police. During the last decade, I have been to numerous Pride marches in Istanbul, and remember that almost every Pride starts with police threatening intervention, followed by negotiations, and then police pulling aside, allowing the march to take place. This held true even following the 2013 Gezi Park protests. For this Pride I had to watch from afar, however to tell you the truth I was not surprised to see in my twitter feed of the developments coming from Istanbul.

Pride Istanbul attacked with water cannons, teargas, and rubber bullets

It is unfortunate that the Istanbul governor chose to use the excuse that the march was banned because it is taking place during the Muslim Holy Month of Ramadan. Perhaps he forgot that last year Pride also took place during Ramadan. So the governor thinks Pride is insensitive to religious people? Well, perhaps the governor should explain how shooting rubber bullets and teargas at citizens promotes peace and understanding.

Taking refuge on Burger King's balcony

During the last few months, there has been concerted verbal attacks on Turkey's LGBT community by its pro-government press. Just months ago, I wrote about how Zorlu Performing Arts Center cancelled the Boston Gay Men's Chorus after the pro-gov press claimed they were coming to Turkey to "spread homosexuality." Happily, the evening before the attack on Pride, the Choir took the stage as guests at the prestigious Bogazici University. However, the fact that a public institution sponsored the event outraged many pro-gov officials, with Istanbul's Medeniyet University's Rector, M. Ihsan Karaman venting numerous homophobic hate messages on twitter.

Istanbul's Medemiyet's Rector: Our Universities are not theplace to legitimize perverted tendencies and acts. No to the Gay Chorus at Bogazici University!

What seems to be happening is that as the LGBT continues to gain support among the Turkish public and politicians, the conservative AKP (and homophobic) government, especially prevalent among Erdogan's circle, are doing their best to turn this into just another one of its polarizing strategies. In fact, it can be argued that criticizing gays among Turkey's conservative base has remained minimal until now simply because it is such a taboo issue. However, with the HDP and CHP opposition parties actively calling for LGBT rights, silence is no longer a possible option, with homophobic hate speech only growing.

The Hashtag of the Day: #LoveWins. What part of this kiss do you not understand?

The attack on Istanbul's Pride only shows how desperate the government has become. Just three weeks ago, the AKP was hit with a major blow losing its parliamentary majority for the first time, after thirteen years of single party rule. For now, it still seems unclear what type of coalition might emerge, with the possibility the country could see a new round of elections. However, Erdogan should take note that his hate speech directed at gays did not help his party in the past election and most likely will not in the future.

Police wear gas masks on as they shoot teargas towards Pride supporters demand right to march. Itwas reported that one participant could lose his eye due to a direct hit by teargas canister.

In the meantime, the LGBT movement and support groups are standing on solid ground, so no one should expect the banning of Pride will make a dent in their support, rather it will only strengthen the movement. Sadly, this came at a high cost. Ironically, it was reported that a member of a pro-AKP LGBT group was among those injured yesterday, with a strong chance he might lose an eye as a result of a direct hit of teargas canister. Clearly, he too misinterpreted the government's hands-off strategy and perhaps has cost him his eyesight. Let us hope that next year's Pride will return to its peaceful days.

These thousands of march goers will be back next year, that is for sure!

Monday, June 8, 2015

The recent Turkish elections dealt a major blow to the
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), and a greater blow to the die-hard fans of Turkey’s
president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It was clear in the run-up to the elections
that this was a mandate on whether-or-not Turkey was headed to a
super-presidency, or what I called in an earlier article a ‘Putinization’ of
the Turkish political system. The Turkish people gave an overwhelming no to the
AKP’s plans; the AKP received only 40.8% of the vote, dropping a whopping 9%
since the 2011 vote. For the first time since 2002, the AKP can no longer rule
as a single party, well under the 276 seats needed.

This number of seats have not been finalized and are fluctuating; however tehy will remain within
one-two seats of the above estimate. Source Hurriyet

The real source of evening’s exhilaration was that the Peoples’
Democratic Party (HDP) strong showing with an impressive 13% of
the overall vote. Their success is attributed to its charismatic leader, Selahattin
Demirtas, and its inclusive ticket, which promises social and political justice
not just to Kurds, but to all socially oppressed groups, such as women and the
LGBT community. They also have created coalitions with socialists and environmentalists. Through dedication and hard work, the HDP managed what had seemed impossible: a mostly
Kurdish party shattered the high 10% threshold.

In addition to this, while the Republican People's Party (CHP) remained about the same, at
25% of the vote, it held ground, even with the flow of CHP voters to the HDP,
who were determined to block Erdogan’s plans for a super-presidency. As for the National Movement Party (MHP), it gained votes, up to
16%, stolen from the AKP. In fact, this was exactly what Erdogan had
feared, on the campaign trail he often inserted nationalists rhetoric.
However, this backfired, with it alienating the AKP’s conservative Kurdish voters,
who also ended up not buying into Erdogan’s “Koran-thumping” politics.

So what went wrong for the AKP?

Since the Gezi Park protests, Erdogan has done his utmost to
alienate moderate voices in his party. In fact, with the breakout of the December
2013 corruption scandal, Erdogan has increasingly built a wall of political
cronies around him, who join with him in creating a chorus of hate and fear. In
fact, during the election season, Erdogan overshadowed the main AKP candidate, Prime
Minister Davutoglu, regularly rallying, never missing the chance to curse Gulenists,
Armenians, Gays, and Jews. This might have worked or been brushed aside when
Turkey’s economy was booming, but certainly would not be tolerated in a sluggish one. Not to mention the fact that many Turkish citizens seem to have become fed up with Erdogan whose politics are the main source of polarization.

Unable to stop Erdogan and his hateful press, Davutoglu
figured that he could balance the die-hard Erdoganists by staying close to more moderate
and sensible politicians. However, the problem is that Erdogan has become
impossible to control; yet, without Erdogan, the
moderate voices of the AKP simply do not amount to much in terms of political
clout. This is exacerbated by the fact that the public clearly sees the
moderates' silence in the wake of corruption, disregard for law, and Erdogan’s
extravagance.

Thus this election has shown that not
only Turkey is at a crossroads, but also AKP’s moderate voices. While
it is hard to imagine they will fight for the full control of the party,
if they don’t show the public that they are serious about abandoning Erdogan’s plans for a super-presidency, it seems the party could be doomed to a
bleaker future. In short, it seems hard to imagine that the CHP, MHP, or the HDP,
will allow Erdogan to move forward, blocking the AKP’s chances of entering a
coalition government.

So what now?

Of course, it is still early to tell. Already CHP leader
Kilicdaroglu has made public his thoughts of the possibility of a CHP-MHP-HDP
coalition. While it seems like a long shot, Turkey has seen equally strange
coalitions in the past. In his article on the election, political analyst Serkan
Demirtas states that this could happen based on "certain conditions and
with the purpose of undermining Erdoğan’s position. This large coalition would
later take the country to polls with, for example, a reduced election threshold
and other legal amendments for the further normalization of the country.”

In my opinion, we will need at least a week or two to pass until we can speak wisely on what possibilities could emerge. If I could weigh
in with my life experience, I am never surprised at politicians taking extreme
turns with a whiff of power. We will need to play this one out.
However, it seems safe to say that new elections, which could happen in 90 days would be a worst-case scenario for the AKP. There is no reason to imagine that in a
second round that it could fare better, and another election could lead to deeper
divides in the party.

For now, I will congratulate the HDP and convey my wishes that
this will lead Turkey to a brighter future, one where the wounds of the past
can begin to be heal. It will not be easy, and it would be foolish to think
that Erdogan will take this election’s message to heart and begin relinquishing
his attempts to receive extended presidential powers.

Nevertheless, as I watched the election results with a group
of Turkish university professors and students, I could not help notice the relief
on the numerous political analysts’ faces streaming live on Turkish
television. A glimmer of hope emerged perhaps for the first time since the Gezi
Park protests; indeed, the election results should be treated simply as a glimpse of what better days might lie ahead, providing some hope for a better future.

Sadly, this all came at a heavy price. Just two days before
the election, a bomb went off at an HDP rally, killing two and injuring many
more. Today, as I write this, I have learned that that a third person died of
his wounds. This just shows us that in no way are things as simple as they
might seem now.