Knowing what you know now, did the Clippers pay too high a price for Paul?

No. I look at it this way — are the Clippers set up better now or in the future after the trade? I say both. There’s no way L.A. would be consistently beating elite teams with last year’s squad and simply the additions of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups. In the future, with time to gel and additions through free agency and trades, they’re only going to get better. If the last four games have proven anything, Paul is the Clippers’ offensive maestro and the difference-maker from being a playoff team and being a contender.

Is it a big problem that Blake likes to shoot long jumpers more than he attacks the rim like a rabid animal off the high screen?

Yes, it’s a huge problem. Blake’s jumper, while improved, is far from a proven product. His outside shooting efficiency is actually down from 33 percent to 31 percent this year but that’s more of a reflection of his 4.8 attempts per game (too high and as a result, lowers his percentage out there). When he attacks the rim, he’s much, much better (71.0 percent shooting at the rim). A pick-and-roll with Paul is much more efficient if Griffin rolls towards rim destruction.

Is Neil Olshey executive of the year?

Yes, thus far it appears Neil Olshey should be the executive of the year. He turned a laughingstock franchise into a fringe contender with the Chris Paul trade and signings of Caron Butler and Chauncey Billups (for $2,000,032!). Who else made better moves this offseason?

Injuries

Match-ups

Point Guard
Paul is sick. Mo Williams is a solid back-up. Bledsoe is better than any back-up we got. And Chauncey can make it happen if he gets the call. That’s about all she wrote.Edge: Clippers

Shooting Guard
At least DeMar showed up for the Blazers game on Friday; it took him 21 shots to get 22 points, but at least he got to the line 10 times. He hasn’t stepped up in Bargnani’s absence, but neither has anyone else really. While Billups wont break him down off the bounce, he will make him pay for every inch of open space DeRozan gives him and play tight defense on our boy.Edge: Clippers

Small Forward
It’s going to be frustrating to watch a juicy, out of shape Caron Butler make things happen against our defense, but that’s exactly what’s going down this afternoon. If Caron doesn’t go, the Raptors small forwards are actually better than anything the Clippers have.Edge: Clippers

Power Forward
Bargnani’s supposed to play, but he’s been sitting for over a week now and wont be crisp. There isn’t a whole he can do to control Griffin if he gets it in his head, but if he isn’t too much out of game shape, he can make things difficult on the phenom. Expect too see a lot of dunks and offensive rebound-put-backs tonight from the Clips, though.Edge: Clippers

Center
Amir Johnson is a poor mans DeAndre Jordan. You could make the case that Amir has better offensive weapons, but what he does better on defense, Jordan more than makes up for on defense. The Raptors have more depth here, but Jordan is a work horse; it might even out since DeAndre doesn’t do enough outside of blocking shots and dunking (work with me here, I couldn’t give them a clean sweep).Edge: Even

Keys to the Game

Let Blake shoot the ball every time he gets it; it’s frustrating to watch, but he loves the jumper, and shouldn’t be a go-to thing for him. Off the high pick-n-roll, let the guy roll and force Paul create some genius on every possession.

Control the boards; outside of Griffin and Paul, the rest of the team is pretty average to mediocre.

Make the Clippers work defensively; Chris Paul is injured and limping, Jordan can be bated with a pump-fake and Blake isn’t making all defensive team (although he can make highlight blocks). The Clippers are going to score, nothing the Raptors can do to stop that, but if we make them work a little, hopefully the early start time will mess with them

The Line

The Clippers are 9.5 point favourites at home with an over/under of 184.5; I’m setting the over/under of Blake and Jordan dunking at 10. The Clippers dropped a heart breaker against the Timberwolves on Friday, and should be plenty pissed off today. If Bargnani is playing, and isn’t too rusty, the Raptors should cover. It’s starting to get more serious than just covering games and looking at the bright-side of things, though. The Raptors have dropped 7 in a row, and could easily drop the next 5 on the road. Have to make a stand sometime, yea?

The draft lottery can’t come fast enough, after a massive win against the Magic on the weekend, the Raptors are 1 game out of 3rd worst; Wizards are holding tight. Including tonights game in New York, three of the remaining six games are against playoff teams, with the Bucks trying to sneak in past the Pacers, but are currently sitting three games out. Even though the Knicks have secured a playoff spot, they can clinch the 7th seed with a win tonight; it’s on yea?

In yesterday’s Power Rankings, Marc Stein (thanks weinermobile) had this to say about the Raptors:

Make that two wins over Orlando to go with an improbable season sweep of the Thunder as well as wins over Dallas (road) and Chicago (home). So give the Raptors this much: When they do win, it’s almost always an event.

Quick hits:

Sonny Weems seems to have woken up from the three straight games of inducing projectile vomit in fans to a solid showing off the bench against the Magic. Expect that to revert tonight, and I’m glad his future contract worth is in the 2yr/$4mil range with the arrival of Johnson; if that.

Bayless has the opportunity to continue the impressive run he’s been on in the last two games, wont be easy against Chauncey, but the Knicks as a whole could counter his effectiveness as an individual. Maybe; probably not…

James Johnson can do us a solid by letting Carmelo put up 25+ shots; volume shots out of sync = good for the Raptors.

Ed Davis vs Amar’e Stoudemire, very interested in this match-up.

If Bargnani gets any more burn for the rest of the year, I’d like to see him sweat it out like a migrant worker in a strawberry field.

Put me down as a ‘yes’ for Barkley taking over as the Raptors GM if BryCo is shown the door. Why? Why not! Seriously, how much worse could things possibly get? Charles may not be the smartest basketball mind in the world, but he’s smart enough to know he can’t do the job well and will need to surround himself with smart people to help in the decision making. Also, I miss the Sam Mitchell soundbytes somin fierce; Barkley will provide plenty of that. This is all about entertainment right?

The Knicks are 9.5 point favourites with an over/under of 219.5; this has the makings of the Nuggets game written all over it.

How is Shelden Williams the starter for this team? I mean, seriously?
Shelden Williams is a solid player, definitely deserving of minutes on a good team. As far as being a starter, that is another conversation altogether (and in memory of Canadian comedy great Leslie Nielsen let’s all say, “That is another conversation.”). If Kenyon Martin were healthy, Williams would be just playing spot minutes here and there. Martin should return sometime in the next month and once he does, Williams will return to the bench. The saying goes it does not matter who starts, but who finishes and you will not see Williams finishing a game unless there is another injury, ejection or foul trouble.

This does hit on a larger issue. George Karl likes to have plenty of scoring off the bench and he has started players like Anthony Carter, Arron Afflalo (last season when he was less of an offensive threat than he is now) and this season Williams because he likes to attempt to set a good defensive tone to start the game while preserving some of the offensive punch to go against the reserves of the opponent. It certainly worked in the last game in Boston when the starters fell behind by 19 in the first quarter only to see Ty Lawson and J.R. Smith bring the team back against the Celtics bench in the second quarter.

Realistically, what can Denver expect back in a trade for Carmelo since he seemingly wants to go to New York, and the Knicks playing a very patient game of wait-and-see?
If the Nuggets get painted into a corner where the only option is the Knicks, they will be stuck with Eddy Curry’s decomposing contract, Danilo Gallinari, a future first round pick, way in the future, and probably the Prospect Formerly Known as Anthony Randolph. The ideal trade partner is New Jersey, with players like Derrick Favors and Devin Harris available along with one or two first round picks, one from Golden State, thrown in for good measure. With the Knicks playing well the potential of playing with buddy Amare Stoudemire and possibly Chris Paul in a couple of years could be too much of a draw and will convince Melo to hold out for the Knicks.

As much as it would benefit Denver to make a trade sooner rather than later, the players, coaches and fans all know it is just a matter of time, I expect this will become a staring contest between Denver and Melo. If Melo blinks first, he will end up in New Jersey. If Denver blinks first, he will end up in New York.

The hammer the Nuggets wield is money. If they do not trade him before the trade deadline, he will have to walk away from $85 million over the next four years in order to become a free agent. He will have to opt out of the final year of his current contract worth over $18 million and thus lose the three year, $65 million extension. Of course he will get a big chunk of that back through whatever contract he signs. The danger for Melo in that situation is if salaries are rolled back by 25%, as the league wants in the new CBA, Melo could be looking at a max deal that will earn him possibly only around $50 million over those four seasons. That is a big pay cut just to play in Manhattan with Amare instead of Brooklyn with Brooke Lopez.

Of course Melo wields a hammer as well, and it is a weapon that Toronto fans know all too well having seen their former star player tag along with his buddies to Miami.

The Nuggets seem to play better with Lawson manning the helm, what’s the plan with Billups? Will he get traded while he as some value? What’s the market for his services?
What happens to Chauncey when Carmelo is traded is the big variable in this entire situation. As you may know Billups is a hometown hero. He is widely, and I believe rightly, credited as the player who pushed the Nuggets from a playoff also ran into a contending team. He has made apparently conflicting comments suggesting both that he has no desire to be part of a rebuilding project, even in the city of his birth, and also that he wants to retire a Nugget. The truth is Chauncey does want to be a Nugget for life, but not at the expense of hanging around on a lottery team after Melo is dealt.

Chauncey has also been very vocal about his deep desire to see Melo remain in Denver long term. He has two significant motivations for that. First of all, he wants to play on a winner in Denver. The other secondary reason is his contract. If Melo is in Denver, the Nuggets likely pick up the final year of his current deal worth over $14 million. However, only $3.7 million of that final season is guaranteed. Denver is likely the only team in the NBA who would pick up that final year of his deal. If Melo is dealt, it only makes sense Chauncey will be on his way out of town soon after. If that happens, no matter Billups ends up, the trade will probably cost him about $8.5 million.

As far as who would be interested in Chauncey that is not an easy question to answer. Denver would be looking for a pick and expiring deals along with Billups. Obviously, Billups would have to be sent to a good team; if not a contender, at least a strong playoff team. Before the season I thought the best match would be the Bobcats. Charlotte was a solid playoff team last year and it would reunite Chauncey and Larry Brown who both have a deep respect for each other. Add in the unknown quantity of D.J. Augustin and it seemed like a good match. However, the Bobcats have not built on their solid season last year and Augustin has played well. Miami makes sense, but does not have the contracts. Portland has been mentioned, but I do not think they are a good fit as Denver would have to take back Andre Miller and that is not an upgrade for Portland anyway. Sacramento would have been a dark horse if they were a fringe playoff team, but that is not the case.

In surveying the landscape one team keeps coming back to me, the Lakers. L.A. can cobble together enough expiring contracts to make it work, thanks to Sasha Vujacic’s 5.4 million in the last year of his current deal, and they could certainly use a player like Billups to go along with Derrick Fisher. Plus the Nuggets are high on rookie Derrick Caracter, and tried to trade into the second round to draft him last June. Seeing Chauncey in the Forum Blue and Gold would be a terrible pill for Nuggets fans to swallow, but it would be a great situation for Chauncey.

The Nuggets have said publically that the only players who are untouchable are Chauncey and Lawson. I suspect the former is only to try to retain some semblance of sanity in the locker room and the latter is because they are really high on Lawson.

At this point in their respective careers I believe Lawson is the better player. Billups was an All-Star last season, but that was due to a career best stretch from mid-January to mid-March where he was simply amazing. The first part of the season was disappointing and he definitely did not play well over the final month. Billups followed that up with a poor showing in the World Championships and now he has really struggled to start the season. It looked like his shot was coming back before he had an atrocious 2-10 night in Boston. He will still make plenty of threes although the rest of his game is nowhere near the level fans are used to seeing.

Lawson is very good in both the half court offense and obviously is great in transition. He is actually a better defender than Billups who cannot stay in front of anyone anymore. Ty is learning to be more assertive at the request of the coaching staff and he is still a little inconsistent. It will be interesting to see how he follows up his big night in Boston against the Raptors.

Arron Afflalo has been a pleasant surprise, posting a career year across the board. Does he have what it takes to be a rebuilding piece once Carmelo and Chauncey get sent elsewhere?
I think Denver will try to hang onto Afflalo. He has shown a great work ethic and has improved dramatically every summer. He is a solid defender and is developing into a more than adequate offensive player. His name did briefly surface in the rumors swirling around the four team trade which fell apart prior to the start of the season. Who knows if there was any truth to those whispers? Add in Denver’s rumored preference of finding a taker for J.R. Smith and Afflalo, while certainly not untouchable, would seem to be part of the Nuggets long term plans.

Denver has owned the Raptors over the years, last year around this time, they dumped the Raptors 130-112. What will be the game plan this time around against the Raptors, especially with Carmelo being listed as game-time decision?
Not knowing whether or not Melo will play makes it difficult to project much about this game. Deep down I would expect Carmelo to sit. He will certainly want to play in Denver’s next game at Madison Square Garden and after playing horribly over his last five games, it would make sense for him to miss the Toronto game in order to be as strong as possible against the Knicks.

Denver plays a iso heavy offense and it works fine when Melo is on the floor and can get his own shot. He also draws so much attention from the defense that it opens up lanes for his teammates. Without Melo, that same iso offense looks much worse. Ty Lawson is the only player who can penetrate at will and the rest of the team ends up taking plenty of bad shots. You know Denver is in trouble when Al Harrington starts trying to wheel and deal with the ball. On the other hand, if Denver shows the patience to move the ball around, they can get good shots and have offensive players who can make jumpers. Afflalo, Billups, Smith, Lawson and Harrington can all hit the three although Harrington has been shooting blanks for quite some time now. Plus if Denver can play up tempo, they have good athletes and finishers and need not bother with trying to get good shots against a set defense.

Look for Denver to try to get Nene involved early, especially if Bargnani is guarding him. However, if the Raptors double him or front him, Denver will try something else and likely will not go back. Billups will probably also look to be aggressive shooting plenty of threes and posting up Calderon.

Defensively, Bargnani could feast on the pick and pop as Denver has shown a complete inability to deal with that play. They are not much better on the straight pick and roll either. Calderon can get any open midrange shot he wants as Denver’s bigs hate to hedge on the pick and if he wants to go all the way to the rim, they usually give enough ground that the drive is a good option as well.

There is definitely a cloud over this team as they simply wait for Melo to be traded. Still, they showed a lot of heart in their comeback in Boston. Denver may regularly defeat the Raptors, but Toronto will definitely have a shot in this one, whether Melo plays or not.

Injury Report

Match-ups

Point Guard
Even though he’s not what he used to be, Chauncey Billups is still a top-flight PG in the league. His numbers are down across the board this season, however, it’s more than his age that has reduced his effectiveness. Carmelo’s been injured, the front court is decimated with injuries and the distractions of George Karl’s health and Carmelo’s status on the team, coupled with Josh Kroenke taking the helm have all been a factor (phew, I wanted to get that out in one sentence, my apologies). Don’t get it twisted though, he can still go off and has had a couple great games already this season; there’s a reason this team is 13-8 and holding steady at 7th in the West. Depth-wise though, the Nuggets fall off considerably after Billups, giving Calderon and Bayless a chance to really attack him.

Interestingly enough, this team looks a whole lot better with Ty Lawson running the show. The kid is bloody fast off the dribble, and hits his shots from the perimeter. In a half-court game, he has trouble creating space since he’s so small (5″11 195lbs), but both teams play at a faster pace, so he could be a big factor. Would like to see both Bayless and Calderon take advantage of their size and force him to pick up some fouls.

The one area of concern is perimeter defense, namely coverage beyond the arc. The Raps have allowed something like 629 looks from beyond the 3-point line the last couple games. With Billups averaging about five 3-pointers a game, things could get sticky. That said, I like the different looks/styles we can throw at him, and for once, I’m calling a match-up against Billups in the Raptors favour.Edge: Toronto

Shooting Guard
so I called him out against the Knicks, and to his credit, DeRozan responded with a strong game. It will take more than one good game to get out of the Republics doghouse, but I know the kids trying. Tonight, he matches up with Afflalo who doesn’t do any one thing great, but is playing mighty fine this season. Afflalo does well off the dribble, and is a crafty scorer. Being on the wing alongside Carmelo has helped him get better looks, but with Anthony potentially out for the game, a lot of the scoring burden will fall to him, which could be a good thing since he’s not an elite scorer. Attack. Attack. Attack. Hit or miss, that’s all DeMar has to do tonight since the Nuggets don’t have much in the paint in the paint to slow him down when he gets by Afflalo.Edge: Toronto

Small Forward
If Carmelo’s healthy, and in the lineup, he’s going off for 34; if he isn’t, Denver has some guy I never heard of (rookie Gary Forbes) getting burn in his place. This team is totally different with Carmelo out of the lineup, they squeaked out a win against the Suns, and got thumped by Boston on Wednesday. With him though, they are the 6th ranked offense in the league. Off the bench, J.R. Smith will be gunning hard. The guy is instant offense and isn’t shy; Wednesday against the Celtics he took 18 shots in 26 minutes, 10 of them were cringe worthy. I’m actually looking at Barbosa for a big game tonight. He has the speed and determination to get to the rim every chance he gets, and since the Nuggets don’t have anyone to really contest him there, he should be dangerous.

As long as Weems (don’t you dare call him money) does exactly the opposite of what he’s been doing the last few weeks or so, he should be fine. A note on Kleiza…I’m done with him. To regress the way he has over the course of this young season is stunning after the great performance he turned in during the FIBA championships. I only wish the leash Triano has him on would extend to other folks who aren’t carrying their weight.Edge if Melo’s Playing: DenverEdge if Melo isn’t Playing: Toronto

Power Forward
No joke, Sheldon Williams is starting for this team, that’s how brutalized the front court is. Since he’s so useless, Amir shouldn’t be getting into any early foul trouble early, which bodes well for him to log 30+ minutes. Off the bench, Harrington is someone to be concerned with, even though he’s only scoring about 12 a game this season; historically he’s feasted on the Raptors, averaging 21 a game over his career.

That said, between Amir and Davis, the Raptors have the size, speed and athleticism to own this match-up. Ed Davis has an opportunity to really step up defensively and on the boards.Edge: Toronto

Center
What was just as impressive as the 41 points Andrea dropped on Wednesday, was the 7res and 6ast he stacked alongside it. A complete game, I don’t think I’ve ever said that about Andrea during his time with the Raptors. He’s really stepped up this season in Bosh’s absence, and I really couldn’t be happier about it. Triano has done a good job of hiding his rebounding woes (averaging 5.7 which is brutal for a 7 footer getting 35+ minutes) with creative line juggling with Evans and Johnson, allowing him to concentrate his energies on the offensive end.

Nene will be a handful, the Brazilian is super active in the paint, takes very good shots (and hits them to the tune of 62%FG), and gets on the boards. He’s an undersized center, so Barg’s shouldn’t have too hard a time backing him into the post. Nene will win the hustle match-up, but he doesn’t have the tools to really affect Bargnani on either end of the floor. If he starts to float and crash the boards though, he could prove to be trouble.Edge: Toronto

Keys to the Game

Own the Paint; both ends
I assume that the Nuggets will be shooting the lights out, but they don’t have the forwards to battle in the paint and crash the glass with the Raptors. There is significant drop off after Nene, with Harrington mostly concerned with his own scoring and one-upping himself with shooting threes (I can’t stand him). In Evans’ absence, the Raptors have continued to rebound the hell out of the ball, and with Alibi getting called up from D-League purgatory, the bench has another long kid to get after it.

X’s & O’s
In the dieing minutes against the Knicks, the Raptors ran two brutal out of bounds plays that yielded them exactly nothing. Triano needs to do a much better job at diagramming plays out of the timeouts, on the fly, actually calling good plays in general; especially going head-to-head with Karl, who is one of the better coaches in the league.

Consistency
Three losses in a row, against two teams who are under .500, all in the last week. This after a 6-2 stretch that saw wins against Houston, Boston and Oklahoma. I don’t understand it either, but it speaks to the Raptors not bringing the same effort on a game-to-game basis, which comes down to preparation and motivation, which comes down to Triano and Carlessimo doing their jobs.

With or without Carmelo, the Raptors need this win, have to stop the bleeding and build some momentum heading into the next week where 5 of the next 7 are at home, and against weaker teams (obviously the Bulls and Lakers aren’t weak teams).

Excuse the spelling/grammar mistakes, didn’t have time to go through this with a fine tooth comb; at least I never said ‘literally’.

***UPDATE***
The gamblers have spoken, and the Nuggets are 2 point favourites with an over/under of 217.5.

Utah was a disaster, a big fat one. It was one of the most disappointing games I have ever seen. The effort was so bad that they could have easily lost by 45 points, and no one would have been surprised.

At this point of the year, and I’m sounding like a broken-record here, these sorts of performances shouldn’t be the norm for a team trying to build some momentum heading into the playoffs. Colangelo talked about the difference in the players since the All-Star break. He used the word “agenda” very deliberately, and deflected any blame from Triano, saying that it was up to the players to do what they are told to. This means that Triano has the bosses full support and will be back next season; which makes me sad.

The Nuggets have absolutely owned the Raptors the last three seasons, having, quite easily, won the last five meetings:

What’s going on with the Nuggets? Is what we’re seeing just a blip, or is there something bigger at play?
Right now there is no team dealing with a bigger distraction than Denver. As everyone knows their head coach is battling cancer and has reached a point physically where he cannot be with the team. Adrian Dantley has struggled at times and is probably hamstrung a little by the situation he is in. Plus Denver’s best interior defender and rebounder, Kenyon Martin, is out for an unknown period of time as he deals with patella tendonitis.

It is completely understandable why Denver is not playing their best. However, the level to which they have fallen goes beyond simply dealing with the stress and worry about Coach Karl and the absence of Martin. The effort they put forth defensively on Wednesday in Boston was completely unacceptable and they had similar lapses in New York. Offensively their perimeter shooters have been firing blanks from behind the arc, especially Chauncey and J.R. Smith, yet, when they are not shooting well, they seem to actually attempt more long jumpers which is a thought process that is foreign to me.

Denver is clearly capable of playing better, and they will, the question is when? Considering the way they have played their previous two games and the fact the game in Toronto is their only remaining game on this current five game trip against a non contending squad, I fully expect Denver to put forth a very strong and focused effort. If they do not, I fear their season could be irreparably damaged.

How bad a decision was it to give Camby away when you could have used his size against the likes of the Lakers in the playoffs?
I was fully in favor of the decision to trade Marcus Camby. He was an overrated defender in Denver as all he did was sit back and play for the blocked shot. He played horrible pick and roll defense, is too sparsely proportioned to defend in the post against other centers and is so limited offensively that on one occasion the Warriors decided to have Mickael Pietrus cover him and Marcus never even thought of trying to post him up. Camby was actually not a good matchup against the Lakers as he is too light in the keister to cover Andrew Bynum. He also struggled against the multi-talented Pau Gasol.

Of course, Camby is a gifted rebounder and it is obvious Denver could use another big to help in that department. Chris “Birdman” Andersen has filled Camby’s role relatively well and for much less cash, although he apparently thinks a box out is something you have to do when you are moving. Denver was hoping that a big like Drew Gooden was going to be available after the trade deadline, but that market never developed this season. They made a play for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but clearly he was never going anywhere but Cleveland.

What a lot of people do not realize is it was the Camby trade that created the financial wiggle room to make the trade for Chauncey Billups. Chauncey’s annual salary was nearly equal to what Camby was making and without dumping Camby’s contract they could not have taken on Chauncey’s. Plus it opened up more minutes for Nene who has responded with two very good, and healthy seasons.

Who do you guys want to see in the 1st round? Can the Nuggets get to the conference finals or beyond?
An ideal first round opponent would be the Oklahoma City Thunder. Denver matches up very well with them and I suspect it would be a very short series. Apart from the Thunder there are few teams I would dismiss. I have said since last season that I am not afraid of San Antonio until I see all three of their stars are healthy at the start of the postseason. It does appear the Spurs will be at full strength with Tony Parker slated to return soon and while I do not think they can make a deep run, they certainly would be a handful in the first round. If I had to pick a second team for the Nuggets to face it would be the Mavericks, although they are better than the team Denver routed last season. Next on the list would be Portland. Denver matches up pretty well with them and while I think the series would be a long hard fought one, I believe the Nuggets would prevail. The one team I am really afraid of is Phoenix, especially if the Suns have home court advantage. They are the one team who can outgun Denver game after game and it is entirely possible the Nuggets fall to fifth and have to play the Suns in the first round.

I have maintained all season that Denver is the second best team in the west, but have always added the caveat if healthy. As long as Kenyon Martin can return and be effective, and I must say I am dubious of speculation he will be ready to go for the playoffs, Denver can beat any team in the league. Along with adding Kenyon in order to reach their potential the Nuggets probably also need Karl to be back on the bench, but that too would seem to be a long shot.

What’s next for this team if this group can’t put it together and make a serious run?
I really do not want to entertain that notion, but their chances of repeating last season’s run are decreasing with every loss. Ideally Denver can rebound next season with Karl back to full health and each of their young players, Carmelo, Nene, J.R. Smith, Arron Afflao and Ty Lawson, a year closer to their prime. Denver could have some spots to fill with hangers on like Malik Allen, Anthony Carter, Joey Graham and Johan Petro in the last year of their contracts. Plus next season is finally the last year of Kenyon’s monster contract and in a tough economic climate a contract of that size could be very valuable. Then hopefully Denver is the team who can trade an important piece of their team to add a major piece of the puzzle, have him bought out, wait 30 days and bring him back for the playoffs.

All of that sounds nice, but it might not be reality. The really, really bad news for Nuggets fans is with owner Stan Kroenke proving to be exceedingly disinterested in paying the luxury tax they could see wholesale changes this summer. Depending on where the tax level falls for 2010-11 Denver’s top five players alone could make them a tax paying team. There has been no real discussion about it in the media, but I would not be surprised if the Nuggets are forced to dump another player in the next few months. That would be a blow that I doubt they could overcome.

If we really want to look long term, you may have heard the recent scuttlebutt about Carmelo having an early termination clause after next season. Picture him as a free agent at the same time the Nuggets are tightening the purse strings and dropping down the standings. I find the chances he will leave minute, but they are real enough I had to write a post about it earlier this week.

What are George Karl’s strength’s and weaknesses? How is he doing with the cancer battle, how is the team responding?
I would say that George Karl’s greatest strength with this team is the fact he has gone toe to toe with some of the most important players on the roster, but unlike in the past it seems to have made them closer. At times he seemed like Karl was the last remaining guard during a prison riot. He has battled with Carmelo, Kenyon and J.R. Smith and all of them seem to have come out of the other side better for it although he and J.R. do not seem to be on great terms. At least Smith realizes even though he may not like what Karl says or does, it is all designed to make him a better player.

As far as weaknesses there are a number of little things that get on the fans’ nerves. He tends to be too passive on the bench from time to time and his intensity seems to ebb and flow from game to game. If I had to criticize him about something, it would have to be that he has not done a very good job of maintaining the defensive emphasis that served Denver so well last season. Heading into training camp in 2008 it was made clear that the happy go lucky ways were gone and that he was going to get the team back under control. He pulled it off and Denver was a vastly improved defensive team in 2008-09 even without Camby. This season they have become a more offensive oriented team again and the attention to detail defensively is not there.

As far as his health the treatment Karl is enduring has been very painful. If you have not seen it I encourage everyone to read this article by Rick Riley documenting what Karl is going through. Over the weekend he had a problem with blood clots in his legs. That issue is reportedly resolved, but he is certainly in a great deal of pain every minute of every day. We can only pray that the treatment is successful.

As far as the impact on the team at first they seemed to rally around it, but recently Chauncey spoke about how they miss having their leader around and from the perspective of an outsider I would say the spirit of the team is low. Karl has told them the best medicine for him right now is wins and I am a little surprised that the biggest problem with the team recently has been effort.

If the Raptors want to do a good deed I suggest letting the Nuggets win tonight. It really is the humane thing to do.

Interesting that Karl chooses to go toe-to-toe with his players as opposed to Triano, who seemingly indulges the players after terrible performances saying that the effort was there but they just fell short a couple times blah blah blah.

I expect to see a few things this game:

Chauncey to have 20pts 11ast 5rebs 2st – it’s time for him to come out of this little funk of his

JR Smith to go 4-8 from behind the arc, all open shots, and all of them daggers

Nene to have 20 points in the paint, 6 offensive rebounds, and be the best front line player on the floor (of either team)

Bosh to have 24pts 11rebs

Raptors to lose by 21

For all the gamblers to take Denver at -5.5; that’s about as close to a sure thing as you can get

http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/03/26/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggest-mar-2610/feed/15Gameday: Raptors vs Nuggets – Nov. 17/09http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/17/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggets-nov-1709/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/17/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggets-nov-1709/#commentsTue, 17 Nov 2009 15:13:00 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=12430That was a killer game against the Suns. Like tennis, this is a game of inches. Had Hedo nailed that shot at the buzzer, the Raptors would have been 2-0 on this four game Western swing, 6-4 on the season, and heading into Denver on a three game winning streak. You can hardly blame this... Read more »

That was a killer game against the Suns. Like tennis, this is a game of inches. Had Hedo nailed that shot at the buzzer, the Raptors would have been 2-0 on this four game Western swing, 6-4 on the season, and heading into Denver on a three game winning streak. You can hardly blame this on Hedo though, he had already stuck two clutch shots to give the Raptors a lead with a few seconds left in the game. Coming out of a timeout, you would hope there was more planned then our boy taking his man one-on-one off the dribble, but there wasn’t, and he didn’t. We ended up with something that “we could build on.”

Whatever that means, I’m hoping we can build on it quick, because we just rolled into Denver. I’ve been dreading this one since the schedule was published. Last season, we dropped both games to them, 132-93 & 114-107, the former being the day Colangelo gave up on the season 17 games in (8-9). In fact, that first game was the type that no one talked about the next day. Everyone went to school/work, hung their head low, and when the subject of the Raptors came up, we all were like “they’re in Utah on Friday.”

There is one sub-plot tonight, the return of Joey Graham. Every last one of us was happy to see Jamario Moon jack and miss his jumpers against the Raptors when Cleveland came to town on opening night (I was laughing like a maniac the whole time, it was good to exorcise those demons). I’m hoping for the same tonight. Joey Graham was the last bad reminder of the Babcock era, every single time I saw him, all I could think about was what we gave up to draft him at 16 (Granger). I had heard good things about him early in the season, where he was supposed to start or something, but that didn’t work out. I fear the only way we see him tonight is if either team is losing badly, or at the end of quarters while Carmelo is getting pampered on the bench.

The Match-ups

The Point: After a horrible start, Jose seems to be back. Over his last 5, he is averaging 14pts and 7.6ast a game, about what we expect. His defense has improved some, but really, it’s not that good. After having to deal with Nash and Davis the last two, he gets to finish this trip on Chauncey and Williams. One elite PG after another. I don’t like this match-up at all for Calderon. Unlike the other two, Chauncey will make life for Jose hell on defense as well. This is going to be a full court ordeal for Jose, who is going to be pushed every which-way possible.The Edge: Denver

The Skill: At some point this season, we will have to move DeRozan to the bench if he doesn’t bump it up a notch. He’s only playing 17 a game, but half of that comes at the start of the game when you’re feeling out your opponent and setting a tone for the rest of the game. Hardly the time to let your raw rookie get some burn. Tonight he gets Arron Afflalo, who has been a great addition to the Nuggets replacing Dahntay Jones in the starting five. We can expect Arron to attack the offensive glass, and slash to the basket. He’s also the only safe bet to leave on a double-team situation. He isn’t a lock down defender, so if DeRozan can keep active and run around the court, he can shake free. Hopefully DeRozan isn’t too cold to play.The Edge: Denver

The Wing: Hedo had his first chance on Sunday to live up to the pedigree he came to the Raptors with, but fell short after hitting his first two clutch shots. I can deal with it, since he had a pretty damn good game before that. Sadly, his production comes in waves. He has a goodish/greatish game, then disappears for a game or two. He’ll have his hands full with Carmelo tonight to start with but look for Wright (if healthy) or Belinelli to switch at some point. Like Jose, Hedo will be tested on both ends of the floor, and even if he was healthy (dude keeps wincing…I hate wincing), this is not a favourable match-up. The fact that he isn’t 100% almost guarantees this to be a bad one.The Edge: Denver

The Big: I’m just going to go on a limb and say that Chris should be able to handle Kenyon tonight. With the added muscle and the MVP caliber run so far, I have zero reservations. Doesn’t mean that this will be a walk in the park, though. Martin has a nose for the ball and as Jeremy from Round Ball Mining Company says “Martin can score, it just rarely looks pretty.” The match-up fully favours Bosh here, but we can’t sleep on Martin. He has hurt the Raptors in the past, making defensive stops in the dying moments of the game. He will rotate defensively on penetration, just have to find an open/waiting Bosh for the dish. Could be textbook.The Edge: Toronto

The Strong: This just isn’t going to work out well for Bargnani tonight. Nene is a pitbull. An energy guy who is an efficient scorer. He always gets after it. Bargnani only has a size advantage here and that may be marginal since Nene is a big boy who is also equally quick. I just don’t see it. Frye dropped 20 on us on Sunday and all he did was stand on the perimeter waiting for a pass. Nene is going to earn every single point/rebound he gets, and each one has the potential to make Andrea look silly.The Edge: Denver

The Backup: Anyone else think that Belinelli/Johnson are the bizarro Smith/Anderson? Seriously…Belinelli and Smith are the kamikaze scorers who come off the bench and hit ridiculous shots. Johnson and Anderson are the energy guys who grab rebounds, put down dunks and are crowd favourites. Wright needs to stop shooting jumpers, even if he’s open, and Jack should only be allowed to take it to the rack and either lay it up, or kick it out to a shooter. Have to say, it looks pretty even on the pine.The Edge: Even

The Brain: Triano had a brain fart on Sunday giving Jack too much burn in the 4th. All it took was a few minutes for the momentum to shift in Phoenix’s favour, and that’s all it’s going to take against the Nuggets who are elite in their own right. I shudder to think what Billups/Smith will do to Calderon/Jack if Triano insists on playing them together. Shudder. As much as I hate Karl, he has this one. The Edge: Denver

Injury Report

Raptors
Reggie Evans – out
Antoine Wright – questionable

Nuggets
Anthony Carter – questionable

The Line

Vegas has the line at Nuggets -8.5 with an over/under of 219

How to Win This Game

I got nothing here. The Nuggets are a much better team that we don’t match-up well against. IF we keep them off the boards, and IF we hit all our shots, and IF Carmelo has an off-night, there is a chance.

Prediction

Jeremy’s SIM says the Nuggets win 126-117, and that sounds about right to me.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2009/11/17/gameday-raptors-vs-nuggets-nov-1709/feed/79One more day till Gamedayhttp://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2008/11/04/one-more-day-till-gameday/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2008/11/04/one-more-day-till-gameday/#commentsTue, 04 Nov 2008 11:59:47 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=1805Iverson to Detroit for Billups and McDyess. I just don’t see what it adds for Denver except maybe instead of getting knocked out of the first round as the 8th seed they’ll get knocked out of the first round as the 6th seed. The impact on Detroit is two-fold. It improves their scoring and in... Read more »

Iverson to Detroit for Billups and McDyess. I just don’t see what it adds for Denver except maybe instead of getting knocked out of the first round as the 8th seed they’ll get knocked out of the first round as the 6th seed. The impact on Detroit is two-fold. It improves their scoring and in some circles they might be considered a stronger threat to contend this year. More importantly, they clear 20M in cap space this summer as Iverson’s contract is expiring. This summer is also when Rasheed Wallace’s 13M salary expires and next summer is when Richard Hamilton’s 11M are freed. Naturally everybody including our very own Michael Grange is saying that this is all positioning to take a swipe at Chris Bosh.

I don’t care nor do I want to even talk about it. My feeling is that if we keep our own house clean and build a positive winning atmosphere we won’t have to worry about our players bolting off to other seemingly greener pastures. That’s exactly what Colangelo’s thoughts are about the situation:

“You’ve got to be aware of what’s out there. But if we take care of our own business, build a competitive team and treat people right, players should want to stay here.”

There you have it. Let’s stop looking over our shoulders at who’s about to grab our superstar and focus on not giving them a reason to leave. If you want more there’s Chad Ford who is calling Bosh Detroit’s most realistic target. All I got out of that article is that Joe Dumars has really let himself go. That’s all I got to say about the trade but you can have at it.

Chris Bosh was named NBA’s Eastern Conference Player of the Week after averaging 26/10/3.7 and leading us to our oh so perfect record. The Pistons also happen to have a 3-0 record after beating Charlotte last night with some extremely balanced scoring. Now if you thought that we were going to catch a break with Iverson not playing you’re wrong, the Raptors will be his first opponent in a Detroit uniform and I wouldn’t want to have it any other way. Last year’s Raptors team beat the bad to average teams but consistently lost to the good ones. On Wednesday night we’ll face our biggest test of the season and should we pass it then all the enthusiasm around the club might be warranted. If we lose in the same way we lost to Detroit last year it means the team’s not there yet.

This will be a tough game to win simply because it’ll be the best defense we’ve faced so far and relying on Bosh heroics alone to pull us through against Pistons’ team defense isn’t going to work. It never has. Ever. Look it up. We’ll have more on the game tomorrow but it suffices to say that the preparation that has to go into a game against Detroit is significant because they do so many things well. Unlike the Warriors, we can’t just worry about transition defense or unlike the Sixers we can’t just focus on shutting down their wings. Whenever any team plays Detroit they have to shut down Detroit as a unit by troubling their well-oiled offense and cracking their disciplined defense with patience and perseverance. We just can’t focus on one area of the game, to beat a true team like Detroit we’ll have to play as a team and not just clear out for a player or two. It’ll be tough.

Tim Chisholm’s seeing all kinds of technical things that are right with out defense so far including traps, man-to-man schemes and matchup-zones. He’s right but the underlying theme in all that he’s pointing out is strong interior defense. You can’t play aggressive man-to-man defense without being assured that there’s a safety net in case your man blows by you for playing him too tight nor can you trap players without accounting for what would happen if they split the trap and get into the lane. Yes, I’m working towards giving Jermaine O’Neal’s presence some credit here but that’s not to take anything away from Moon and Parker’s hard work on the perimeter. So far we haven’t felt the slightest effects of having one of the worst SF rotations in the league and that’s just amazing. Eric Smith’s also talking about team defense in his latest blog and says Jermaine O’Neal’s asking people in the organization to tell him what the franchise records are so he can break them. Nice.

The rebounding numbers this year just don’t jive with out record and that’s mainly because we’ve been able to hit our threes, get clutch fourth quarter scores and manage to get key defensive stops. Getting outrebounded by an average of 12 rebounds is not a sustainable way to go and Sam Mitchell realizes that:

“We got some work done today. We still have a lot to clean up. Our rebounding is something we continue to talk about. Something we have to get better at. The weird thing about it is we get them when we have to go get them. In the second half we have rebounded when we had to rebound. You look at the Milwaukee game, we got every big rebound we needed to get. That last rebound Jamario got, you look at that on tape, that was a tough rebound to get. He came over the top of a couple of people.”

He’s also talking about inflated numbers like I pointed out after the Philly game – you know, Samuel Dalembert doing his Moses Malone impression by getting 6 rebounds on one play.

One more day to gameday. I’m happy to tell you that aside from the All-Star break there’s only two other occasions (once in December and once in March) that we get starved for three days straight this season.

We’ll have a special guest tomorrow morning to preview the Raptors and Pistons. We might make a post a little later in the afternoon introducing a new feature but that’s dependent on whether I actually have any work to do at work. Damn job.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2008/11/04/one-more-day-till-gameday/feed/52Raptors Potpourri + Podcast #4http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2008/03/25/toronto-raptors-blog-potpourri-podcast-4/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2008/03/25/toronto-raptors-blog-potpourri-podcast-4/#commentsTue, 25 Mar 2008 12:45:01 +0000http://arsenalist.com/?p=776Let’s start things of with an interesting discussion going on in a remote part of this blog concerning race. It’s fascinating stuff! Once you’re done understanding what constitutes white and what doesn’t, let’s move along to Chris Bosh’s birthday bash held on Sunday night which privileged blogger Dinosty had the chance of attending. I can’t... Read more »

Let’s start things of with an interesting discussion going on in a remote part of this blog concerning race. It’s fascinating stuff!

Once you’re done understanding what constitutes white and what doesn’t, let’s move along to Chris Bosh’s birthday bash held on Sunday night which privileged blogger Dinosty had the chance of attending. I can’t imagine the mood being too cheery after the recent struggles of the Raptors and Bosh proverbially “calling out” the team. Nonetheless, I’m sure the festive atmosphere must’ve compensated for the malaise that the on-court product has been in.

Once you’ve had a chance to stomach that post, I present to you, Podcast #4 where amalgamated thoughts include Forderon, Bryan Colangelo, some of our technical issues and the playoff push:

Coming up we have Detroit which has a significant advantage over us in every matchup. We’ve played them twice and it’s not been close, Wallace scares Bosh, Billups can cancel three Calderon’s and 2 Ford’s just by himself and Jason Maxiell gives us nightmares. For us to have a chance in this one, the rebounding battle must be even which is asking a lot of the Raptors against the Piston tall trees. Surprisingly, Rasho was glued to the bench against the Pistons earlier in the year which was questionable given Detroit’s size and the way they were killing us on the boards. Let’s see if Sam has learned anything since.

With Philly on our heels (can’t believe they’re better than us) and Washington pulling away, we need to go on a 3 game winning streak after the Detroit loss. New York and New Orleans at home followed by a trip to Charlotte to avenge the 32-0 second chance point drubbing. New York should be easy and there shouldn’t be any worries there but after that it’s New Orleans who we beat in their arena earlier in the year. In that game, Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani had great performances to complement a 29 point effort by Bosh and the Raptors overcame a 29/16/7 night from Chris Paul. In order to repeat that feat, the same needs to happen and judging by the way the Raptors are playing, it’s a tall order. The Charlotte game was humiliating and the Raptors need to be truly angry before heading into that one, maybe Sam Mitchell should replay the tape just to jog some memories and pump up the adrenalin.

Bryan Colangelo is really concerned about the way the Raptors are playing. Who wouldn’t be? It’s even forced him to return home early from a European vacation scouting trip where he was looking at Euro talent which apparently is running low. Thank God, I think we’ve maxed out the foreign quota allowed on this team.

I was watching Detroit and Phoenix last night and with the Pistons down 1 with a minute left, Chauncey Billups didn’t even look to pass in attacking Raja Bell and going straight down the middle of the paint and scoring on a three point play. The Pistons prevailed and I said to myself, Now, that’s a player. The great teams have always had someone who they can just go to in the clutch and get a high percentage shot. Even if they miss, you’ll feel good about the offensive decision. I don’t know if I get that feeling with Chris Bosh. He’s a very good player that can cause nightmares because of his quickness but I’m wondering if he’ll ever mature and evolve into a Kevin Garnett or a Tim Duncan type player where scoring is a matter of mechanics and routine. We’ll see I suppose but he’s got a long way to go.

I’m excited to see Chris Paul in Toronto. Mark Jackson in Peter Vescey’s column believes that Steve Nash is the third best point guard behind Paul and Deron Williams, I have to agree with that assessment. Steven Nash is great but Williams and Paul are just oozing with ability, talent and superior physical strength. Steve Nash happens to be the perfect point guard for Phoenix, Mike D’Antoni’s style of play suites him very well and he’s got great complimentary players. I think a lot of his success is a product of the Phoenix system, rather than sheer ability.

Forget the college basketball bracket, make sure you vote for the Raptors DancePak in their annual NBA.com tournament. They’re up against some skanks from the Miami Heat who are relying on immense cleavage to pull them through. On a sidenote, anybody see that special on Minerva done at halftime a couple weeks ago? I’m not feeling it anymore.