1. Projections of real GDP growth, PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are
fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter growth rates, i.e. percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the prior year to
the fourth quarter of the indicated year. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in
the price index for personal consumption expenditures and the price index for personal consumption expenditures
excluding food and energy, respectively. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian
unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of each year. Each participant's projections are based on his or her
assessment of appropriate monetary policy. The range for each variable in a given year includes all participants'
projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in the given year; the central tendencies exclude the three
highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year. Return to text

* June economic projections for the second half of 2007 are shown in parentheses.
These are computed from the projections for 2007 submitted ahead of the June FOMC meeting assuming that growth and
inflation in the first half of 2007 were as predicted in the June Greenbook. Growth and inflation are reported at
annualized rates. The unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to table

Participants' Projections

Projection

Real GDP Growth

Unemployment Rate (%, Q4)

Total PCE Inflation

Core PCE Inflation

1

2.6

4.7

2.1

1.7

2

2.8

4.7

2.1

1.9

3

2.6

4.7

1.9

1.7

4

2.4

4.8

1.5

1.9

5

2.8

4.7

1.9

1.9

6

2.6

4.8

2.3

1.9

7

2.6

4.8

2.1

1.9

8

2.8

4.8

1.7

1.7

9

2.6

4.7

1.5

1.7

10

2.6

4.7

2.1

2.3

11

2.6

4.8

2.1

1.7

12

2.2

4.8

1.9

2.3

13

2.6

4.8

2.1

1.9

14

3.2

4.7

2.5

1.9

15

2.6

4.8

2.3

1.9

16

2.6

4.7

2.1

1.7

17

2.4

4.8

1.9

1.7

1. Projections for the second half of 2007 implied by participants' October
projections for 2007 and for the first half of 2007. Growth and inflation are reported at annualized rates. The
unemployment rate is the fourth-quarter forecast. Return to text

Table 2October Economic Projections

Respondent

Year

GDP Growth

Unemployment Rate

Total PCE Inflation

Core PCE Inflation

1

2007

2.4

4.7

3.0

1.8

2

2007

2.5

4.7

3.0

1.9

3

2007

2.4

4.7

2.9

1.8

4

2007

2.3

4.8

2.7

1.9

5

2007

2.5

4.7

2.9

1.9

6

2007

2.4

4.8

3.1

1.9

7

2007

2.4

4.8

3.0

1.9

8

2007

2.5

4.8

2.8

1.8

9

2007

2.4

4.7

2.7

1.8

10

2007

2.4

4.7

3.0

2.1

11

2007

2.4

4.8

3.0

1.8

12

2007

2.2

4.8

2.9

2.1

13

2007

2.4

4.8

3.0

1.9

14

2007

2.7

4.7

3.2

1.9

15

2007

2.4

4.8

3.1

1.9

16

2007

2.4

4.7

3.0

1.8

17

2007

2.3

4.8

2.9

1.8

1

2008

1.7

4.8

1.8

1.9

2

2008

2.2

4.9

1.8

1.8

3

2008

2.6

4.6

1.9

1.7

4

2008

2.5

5.0

1.7

1.7

5

2008

1.6

4.9

2.0

1.9

6

2008

2.2

4.8

2.3

1.8

7

2008

2.1

4.9

1.8

1.8

8

2008

2.5

4.8

1.7

1.7

9

2008

2.4

4.9

1.7

1.7

10

2008

2.2

4.8

2.0

2.0

11

2008

1.6

5.0

1.8

1.8

12

2008

2.6

4.9

2.0

1.9

13

2008

2.1

4.9

2.1

2.0

14

2008

2.3

4.8

2.1

2.0

15

2008

2.1

5.0

2.1

1.9

16

2008

1.8

4.8

2.2

1.9

17

2008

2.5

4.9

1.9

1.8

1

2009

2.2

4.8

1.9

2.0

2

2009

2.5

4.9

1.8

1.8

3

2009

2.7

4.6

1.7

1.7

4

2009

2.5

5.0

1.5

1.5

5

2009

2.3

4.9

1.9

1.9

6

2009

2.5

4.7

2.2

1.7

7

2009

2.4

4.9

1.7

1.7

8

2009

2.8

4.8

1.7

1.7

9

2009

2.7

5.0

1.5

1.5

10

2009

2.4

4.8

1.8

1.9

11

2009

2.5

4.8

1.8

1.8

12

2009

2.7

5.0

1.7

1.7

13

2009

2.4

4.9

2.0

1.9

14

2009

2.0

4.9

2.1

2.0

15

2009

2.4

4.9

2.0

1.9

16

2009

2.3

4.8

1.8

1.8

17

2009

2.6

4.9

1.8

1.8

1

2010

2.2

4.8

2.0

2.0

2

2010

2.5

4.9

1.8

1.8

3

2010

2.6

4.6

1.6

1.6

4

2010

2.5

5.0

1.5

1.5

5

2010

2.5

4.8

1.9

1.9

6

2010

2.7

4.6

2.0

1.7

7

2010

2.5

4.8

1.7

1.7

8

2010

2.6

4.8

1.7

1.7

9

2010

2.7

5.0

1.5

1.5

10

2010

2.5

4.7

1.9

1.9

11

2010

2.4

4.8

1.7

1.7

12

2010

2.7

5.0

1.5

1.5

13

2010

2.6

4.9

1.9

1.8

14

2010

2.5

4.7

1.9

1.9

15

2010

2.5

4.9

1.9

1.9

16

2010

2.3

4.8

1.8

1.8

17

2010

2.5

4.9

1.8

1.8

Chart 1Central Tendencies and Ranges of Economic Projections

Central tendencies and ranges of economic projections for years 2007 through 2010. Actual data for years 2002 through 2006. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions.

Real GDP GrowthPercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.9

3.7

3.1

2.9

2.6

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.6

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.4

1.8

2.3

2.5

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.2

1.6

2.0

2.2

Unemployment RatePercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

5.9

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.5

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.8

5.0

5.0

5.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.6

PCE InflationPercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.8

1.9

3.1

3.2

1.9

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

3.2

2.3

2.2

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

3.0

2.1

2.0

1.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

2.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.7

1.7

1.5

1.5

Core PCE InflationPercent

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Actual

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.2

2.3

-

-

-

-

Upper End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

Upper End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

Lower End of Central Tendency

-

-

-

-

-

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

Lower End of Range

-

-

-

-

-

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.5

Uncertainty and Risks - GDP Growth

2(a): Please indicate your judgment of the uncertainty attached to your projections
relative to levels of uncertainty over the past 20 years.

Chart 2(a)Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that
were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.

Chart 2(b)Distribution of Participants' Projections (percent)

Histograms, eight panels. See notes to Table 1 for variable definitions. Those participants' June projections that
were provided in quarter points have been rounded to the nearest tenth for the construction of these histograms.