Met Office warns of UK climate risks

Britain will experience water shortages and flooding by the end of the century if temperatures are left unchecked, analysis shows

Ardingly reservoir in West Sussex, currently at only 12% of its capacity. Britain can expect nearly 18 million people to experience more water shortages if temperatures are left unchecked, the Met Office says. Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

Monday 5 December 2011 09.38 EST
First published on Monday 5 December 2011 09.38 EST

Nearly 18 million British people will experience more water shortages and 160,000 will be affected by coastal flooding by the end of the century if temperatures are left unchecked, according to new Met Office analysis.

But new projections of likely rainfall, soil moisture and evaporation suggest that farmers from Cornwall to the north of Scotland should benefit from warmer temperatures, longer growing seasons and fewer frosts that can be expected with climate change, says the report.

The data, which was launched at the UN climate talks in Durban, shows all 24 countries included in the report have warmed since the 1960s and the frequency of extremely warm temperatures has increased, while very cold temperatures have become less frequent.

The authors stressed it was not possible to be confident about future rainfall patterns in Britain, but they noted there had been 35 more "unusually warm" days per year in the past decade than in the 1960s.

The latest warning on the impacts of climate change comes in the wake of one of the driest years on record in some parts of Britain. South and south-east England, which are already facing pressure on water resources, are likely to see an increase in the frequency of droughts and water scarcity, the report says.

In the worst-case scenario painted in the report, food production could decline dramatically in parts of Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Russia, Turkey and the US. Increases in crop yields could be expected in Japan, Germany and other northern latitudes.

The report is significant because it applies consistent data to all 24 countries for the first time.

The new analysis suggests climate change could be worse than previously thought in many developing countries. By the end of the century, it says, about 49 million more people, mostly in Bangladesh, China, India and Egypt, could be at risk from coastal flooding due to sea level rises.

"Life for millions of people could change for ever. This makes the challenge of reducing emissions ever more urgent," said the UK climate and energy secretary, Chris Huhne.

Keith Allott, head of climate change at WWF UK, said: "It is clear that the UK can expect significant disruption to its water, transport and other critical infrastructure. But we also need to remember that developing countries will be much harder hit by climate change with devastating threats to their food and water security.", said