It's true. I calculated it out. Let me preface this by saying that this is not a downer post and that I am not being pessimistic, or anything like that. This could be an amazing divisional race to watch for NFL fans in general, not just those that reside in the NFC West.

If the 49ers win out, they finish 14-2. If the Seahawks win out except for dropping the @ 49ers game, we finish 14-2 as well. Both teams in this scenario will have lost to the Colts, and to each other. NFL tie-breaking procedures to determine division winner go by the following:

1) Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).2) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.3) Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.4) Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.5) Strength of victory.

Let's break it down. The first criteria would obviously be the same; both teams 14-2. The second piece of criteria would also be the same, we'd both be 5-1 in the division with each losing to each other once, so that's a wash. The third piece of criteria would also be a wash. Every team plays 16 games, and this year, the Seahawks and 49ers share 11 common opponents. (Covering 14 games because 3 are division foe duplicates.)

We play all the same opponents except for two, the Seahawks play the Vikings and Giants, and the 49ers play the Packers and Redskins. So, since in this scenario both teams would beat the two different opponents, we would be left with identical numbers of wins against common opponents. Another wash.

On to the 4th tie-breaking criteria. Best record against teams in the conference; the NFC in our case. Since each team would have one AFC loss (to the same team, no less; the Colts) and one NFC loss, (to each other) then this is also a wash, because both teams would have 11 wins, 1 loss in the NFC, and 3 wins, 1 loss in the AFC. Both teams would finish with 11 NFC wins.

The 5th piece of criteria is what would determine the tie-breaker if the 49ers won out the rest of the year. Right now per ESPN, the Seahawks have a strength of victory of 0.390, and the 49ers have a strength of victory of 0.441. They beat us in this category; that is, the opponents they've beaten have more wins than the opponents we have beaten, which is how strength of victory is decided. If we look at the remaining opponents of both the Seahawks and the 49ers, the 49ers face fewer losing teams if current trends continue than the Seahawks do, which means they would almost certainly finish the year with a better strength of victory number.

That would make them the NFC West winners, and the Seahawks would be a 14-2 wild card.

Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.

I didn't create this thread to start a panic, and I'm certainly not panicking myself, or whining; but if anyone was under the impression that we "should still be alright" if we drop another game somewhere, it's time to think again. The best wild card the NFL has ever seen was when the 1999 Titans finished 2nd place in what was then the AFC Central division with a 13-3 record. There has never been a 14-2 wild card team. It's possible that the NFC West may produce a 14-2 wild card this year. That would be absolutely crazy.

If the 49ers and Seahawks both keep winning until we face each other in San Francisco in week 14, that game will have huge divisional implications of historic proportions. The NFC West may have been won by a team with 11 wins last year, but at this point, it's hard to see the winner of it this year not having 14 wins, possibly more.

Not going to happen. The Niners will drop a game or two along the way.

ImTheScientist wrote:This guy is the closest thing to beast mode we will ever see. You got a glimpse of that yesterday. He was instantly my favorite player when they signed him. Give the dude a chance and don't overreact or overthink preseason. Go Hawks. Lacy will rush for 1,100 and 10TDs. Bend the knee.

It is a known fact that we will beat the 49ers when we play them. So the best the 9ers can get to is 13-3 which means that we can lose 2 more games and have the tie-breaker by having beaten them twice.

The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.

I have gone through this scenario already an you know what? I don't care. First of all I don't see us losing to the niners because we match up so well with them. Crushed them the last 2 times we played them, yes I know they were at home but even at San Fran last year when we were still hand cuffing Wilson we should've beat them and would've if we didn't drop so many big first down passes.Now Of course I want home field advantage, but if we don't get it, we go on the road and kick ass. Defense and running game gets us through jan. and nobody does that better then us. I'm tired of hearing we can't win on the road

RolandDeschain wrote:Even though the 49ers are a game behind us, if they win out, they win the NFC West. Incredible. Now, this is not likely to happen, but the 49ers are on a streak and it's definitely possible that we may lose to them when we go there. If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed to win the division at 15-1; but if we win all of the rest of our games except @ San Francisco, and the 49ers win out, period...We lose the division unless there are drastic changes in the right way for us with some of our future opponents.

Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs."

And in a nice change of pace, the Niners get to soften the Saints up for us, as they play them a couple of weeks earlier than we do (on the road, no less).

I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers. I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises. That road game against the Falcons could still be dangerous, and while I love that we get the Saints at home, I'm a touch worried about it happening after a bye. And on the 49ers side, they've got to travel to face New Orleans, and they're getting a Panthers squad that is starting to hit its stride.

chrispy wrote:The strength of opponents change on a weekly basis. It's really not meaningful until the end of the season where the entire 16 game schedule is used to base the strength of each opponent. A lot of teams have streaks where they have 2-3 "easy" or "hard" games in a row.

This is true, but the 49ers already have the SoV advantage, and since they only play two different opponents than we do the rest of the year, the Packers & Redskins compared to our Vikings and Giants, which group of two do you think will have a LOT more wins at the end of the year than the other? It's pretty likely that the 49ers would win SoV over us if they went 14-2. Not guaranteed, but pretty likely.

volsunghawk wrote:Another way to phrase this is "If the Seahawks win out, we're guaranteed HFA throughout the playoffs."

Very true.

volsunghawk wrote:I'll go ahead and say it right now. I don't think our division will come down to tiebreakers.

Oh, I don't think it will, either. I'm just saying, there is a realistic chance that the scenario I described could happen. Not a one-in-a-thousand kind of thing, but as in, it really could happen.

volsunghawk wrote:I think the thought of both of our teams winning out until our matchup in SF tends to overlook history and underestimate other NFL franchises.

I think 1 and 0 every week should make us not worry about anything else we cannot control. I think there are so many scenarios which will play out as we get there, but I think seahawks is peaking again, I just hope we continue to do so and win every game from hear on out.

Very interesting post. It is not unrealistic at all that both teams could wind up 14-2. That would be pretty unbelievable to be a 14-2 wild card, for either team. Hopefully the Hawks can double up and beat up on the 49ers down in SF somehow

mikeak wrote:It was redone for this year. Did I miss information about how poorly it was done?

It's redone every year. That field sees a lot of non-NFL action throughout the season (marching bands, local schools using it for this and that, etc.) and it's poorly maintained on an ongoing basis. Whether they are taking better care of it going forward starting this year is what the real question is.

seahawks08 wrote:I think 1 and 0 every week should make us not worry about anything else we cannot control. I think there are so many scenarios which will play out as we get there, but I think seahawks is peaking again, I just hope we continue to do so and win every game from hear on out.

We are fans... we cannot control any of it..... how about just putting down the hard hat and having a little fun?

We all get it, anything can happen during a season. We also understand talking about things Seahawk related is entertaining. Put those two together and you can openly talk without having to rely on "Post Game Cliques" .

Historically speaking, it's probably more likely that both teams lose a game or two that nobody is talking about right now but both teams are THAT talented. Could happen.

This year, I think we see between 4 and 6 teams with 13+ wins (SEA, SF, DEN, KC, GB, Indy). I lean toward 4 because two teams in the NFC North - which I think is the toughest division this year - play one another quite a bit (and they play a talented Lions team).

Other possible scenarios include splitting SF and NO (in either way). If NO manages to win just ONE of the games against SF or SEA and wins out, do they win #1 seed? We'd have the tie breaker over SF if they were the team we beat, but if not, we wind up being a wildcard as iRo just described.

I know there are a lot of "what if" scenarios but looking at SF and SEA schedules, it's entirely plausible.

So we root for the Giants to be the Redskins and the Vikings to beat the Packers. We pretty much root for the Vikings and Giants the rest of the way and root for the teams playing against the Packers and Redskins.

Richard Sherman doesn't just wanna get in your head, he wants to build a vacation home there.

cacksman wrote:Definitely rooting for the Saints in that game vs. SF. While I don't think we lose in SF, I'll be able to stomach the #2 seed much more than the #5.

I'm feeling you on that one. Hey, was that you at Bill's Off Broadway last sat rooting for the Cougs and crowding me with all your flaccid Coug chubb? That sure sucked when the rec fell down in the end zone and let the other guy get the pick. I was actually rooting for the Cougs for a second there.

Niners are dead last in NFL in passing game based on average yards per game. Wait till they fall behind late in a game and need to depend on passing the ball to win a game late. That's when they lose a game or two.

Problem being that, because of your comments, there are those here who will equate you with the dude in 5 Monkeys who got on the plane at the end.

Be careful Bro, be careful. The Zombies are here, and they're awakening.

Journalism is dead, it's been replaced by creative writing aka fake news.Critical thinking is pretty much dead too. I miss the hearsay rule. The concept of "ethic" has been stripped from the Journalism curriculum.

San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.

KCHawkGirl wrote:San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.

We could still end up as a wild card if the Whiners and Hawks end up with the same record and the Whiners beat us @SF. Whether it's 14-2 or 12-4...it could happen.

Need to take care of business!

Colin Kaepernick wrote:I think our efficiency in the huddle was more of a factor than the crowd.

KCHawkGirl wrote:San Francisco is likely to lose to New Orleans because it's in The Dome and it looks like RG3 is finally healthy so that game will be another very losable game beyond our tilt. So not likely they win out, more likely they go 12-4. Which is the worst we will go at this point.

2012 Bears started 7-1 and finished 10-6.

Sure would be nice if the 2013 49ers would duplicate the back end of their season.

Smelly McUgly wrote:But seriously, the way the Vikes and Giants look, we'd better win both those games.

I still think Seattle and San Fran are 1-2 in the league, so a really good team is going to get hosed this year.

That was a horrible game. If Eli wasn't over throwing open receivers, they were dropping the ball when he did throw accurately. And I can sure see why Tampa Bay decided to part ways with Freeman. That guy couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. He's going to get eaten alive in our house.

The calculation above of equal record while interesting is powerful early to be made. Still lots of football to be played and Frank Gore has yet to suffer his annual ankle injury which if timed well enough should be troubling for the Digits. Too many variables still to consider this calculation more than a well thought out troubling concern what if situation.

I think I will pay more attention to the playoff positions after we seen 1/2 the season played or at least until the next home series is done. Then it wIll be more interesting to assess if the team is a wildcard or bye team heading into the playoffs. I still am totally of the belief this team could easily be the #1 seed and the playoffs will be going through Seattle this year. We need to keep the faith.

Time will tell but the next two divisional games for us are key for the year, especially the SF game.

Until we develop a pass rush that will cause opposing teams to be forced to scheme to defend it we will never be able to consistently take the final step. The interior rush needs improvement. The OLine clearly still needs work.

Tech Worlds wrote:That would suck to have to play on the road wildcard weekend with a record of 14-2.

Truth.

I do get a vibe that us and the Niners have to play 3 times this year. Destiny. Which is fine, I like the way we match up with them, and there is zero chance a road game at the stick will be an early game.