Former president Michelle Bachelet is likely to return to government at the head of the centre-left Concertación coalition after November elections, replacing the centre-right Coalición alliance under Sebastian Piñera (who is constitutionally barred from the contest). But the political pendulum will have little effect on policy: all major groups favour sound fiscal policies and market-led development. Chile’s open economy will be vulnerable to trade fluctuations, but should perform well in 2013.

To watch: Underground hero. Laurence Golborne, the public-works minister lauded for the rescue of 33 buried miners in 2010, is well-placed to win the presidential nomination for the Coalición.