Saturday, July 20, 2013

The Pakistani Nuclear Threat

Saturday, July 20, 2013

The Pakistani Nuclear Threat

...the possibility of a current "Islamic Bomb" scenario, triggered by theloss of Pakistani control over its nuclear weapons arsenal and the fall ofsuch weapons into the hands of extremist Islamic elements, should not beignored.

The Pakistani Nuclear ThreatNot just Iran: Pakistan has been building up its nuclear weapons arsenal atan accelerated rate - weapons that could fall into the wrong hands. Aspecial analysis by Dr. Rafael Ofek

The Pakistani Nuclear Threat All eyes are looking to the direction of Iran,but in the meantime, Pakistan has accelerated the build-up of its nuclearweapons arsenal, and has been hard at work fitting these weapons ontoshort-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal already amountsto more than a hundred bombs.

In the past, the world tended to accept the Pakistani nuclear arsenal,treating it as a merely regional issue of the Indian subcontinent. However,during the first few years of the new millennium, reality struckpolicymakers in the face when the immediate dangers became clear: theproliferation of sensitive technologies to other countries aspiring fornuclear weapons, and the seizure of Pakistani nuclear weapons by extremistIslamic elements.

Although Pakistan does not directly threaten it, the US is not interested inthe eruption of a war between India and Pakistan in general, and is notinterested in such a war escalating to nuclear warfare in particular.Furthermore, the US will not tolerate the possibility of terroristorganizations taking possession of nuclear weapons. Despite denials byofficial Pakistani authorities of having any foreknowledge as to thewhereabouts of Osama Bin Laden's hiding place inside Pakistan, severecriticism was leveled against Pakistan around the world, and suspicions wereraised that it had actually assisted in the master terrorist's hiding.

Apparently, Al-Qaeda had struck roots into the Pakistani establishment, andespecially within the Pakistani intelligence community, which is currentlyas perforated as a termite-ridden tree. Admittedly, the Pakistani governmentis sensitive to the US apprehension of an extremist policy on Islamabad'spart, especially with regard to nuclear weapons. However, decision-making onnational security issues in the country is dictated, first and foremost, bythe military, which is incapable of (and probably not interested in)operating forcefully against terrorism.

"The Islamic Bomb"

Pakistan turned toward nuclear weapons in India's footsteps. The architectof its nuclear program was Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who stated in 1965, asforeign secretary: "…If India builds the bomb… (Pakistan) will eat grass…even go hungry, but we will get one of our own." The realization of Bhutto'svision only began after about 6 years, when he was elected president,against the background of the Pakistani Army's defeat in the war against theIndian Army.

Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan is regarded as "the father of the Pakistani nuclearbomb" from the technical point of view. In the mid-1970s, he was engaged inthe development of centrifuges in the Netherlands, and later smuggled thistechnology to Pakistan.

Upon his return to Pakistan, he was granted autonomy in the advancement ofthe centrifuge project, and proved his abilities when the uranium enrichmentplant materialized and began enriching uranium to a military grade level in1986. The jewel in the crown of the Pakistani nuclear program was the seriesof nuclear tests conducted in May 1998, in response to the Indian tests. Inthose tests, Pakistan demonstrated that it had mastered the technology ofnuclear weapons.

During the 1970s, Bhutto presented his country's nuclear weapons project asthe development of an "Islamic Bomb". This slogan was aimed at the rich Arabcountries, with the intention of obtaining financing for the program.Indeed, Libya, followed by Saudi Arabia, both of whom were very hostile toIsrael in those days, assisted in the financing of this program, owing totheir aspirations to reap some of the fruit of the Pakistani effort, once itmaterialized.

In those days, Israel also regarded Pakistan's nuclear ambitions as intendedto produce an "Islamic Bomb", and the issue was conceived by the Westernworld as follows: Pakistan would physically deliver several nuclear bombs toits allies, or at least provide them with a "nuclear umbrella". Inretrospect, it turned out that regarding the Pakistani nuclear bomb as an"Islamic Bomb" was a false alarm.

Falling to the Hands of Islamic Countries

The above notwithstanding, the threat of nuclear weapon technologies fromPakistan falling into the hands of other Islamic countries was a morerealistic danger. Dr. Khan was exposed in 2003 as the head of aninternational network that sold nuclear weapon technology to othercountries. This became known to the Western intelligence agencies only inthe early 2000s, when the containers of a ship seized by US authorities inOctober 2003, en route from Dubai to Libya, were found to contain about1,000 centrifuge components, manufactured by a plant in Malaysia accordingto blueprints provided by Dr. Khan.

Owing to their fear of the response of the US and with the toppling of theSaddam Hussein regime in the background, Libya was forced to reveal theelements of its own nuclear program to the US and the International AtomicEnergy Agency (IAEA). US intelligence investigators even found blueprints ofa nuclear explosive device in Libya, provided to Libya by Dr. Khan'snetwork. The findings compelled Muammar Al-Gaddafi to cooperate with the USand the IAEA – not just in the dismantling of Libya's nuclearinfrastructure, but in exposing Dr. Khan's activity as well.

The revelations of the Libyan aspect of Dr. Khan's network acted as a'domino effect' and led to the exposure of Khan's close relations with Iran.Pakistan had been suspected in the past of having passed the centrifugetechnology to Iran, but solid proof was only found when Dr. Khan's networkhad been exposed.

The Bomb and Jihad

Pursuant to the atrocities of September 11, 2001, scientists who had ledPakistan's military nuclear program in the past and maintained connectionswith Al-Qaeda were spotted. Apparently, they aspired to aid Al-Qaeda indeveloping nuclear weapons, under the guise of the 'charitable society' UTN(Ummah Tameer-e-Nau) that had been established in 2000.

One of the most prominent activists among those scientists was SultanBashiruddin Mahmoud, who had headed Pakistan's plutonium producing heavywater reactor. He was an Islamic fanatic who resigned his senior position in1999 in protest of the Pakistani government's signing of the ComprehensiveTest Ban Treaty (CTBT) that banned nuclear weapon tests.

Mahmoud's close colleague was Chaudhry Abdul Majeed, the first director ofPakistan's plutonium separation laboratories. But the professionalcredentials and past senior positions of these gentlemen notwithstanding, itis doubtful whether they possessed the technical know-how required in orderto develop a nuclear explosive device specifically, and whether they couldactually contribute to Al-Qaeda by doing so. Moreover, George Tenet, formerhead of the CIA, claimed that the people of UTN established contact with theLibyan authorities with the intent of providing Libya with weapons of massdestruction.

Admittedly, pursuant to the exposure of Dr. Khan's network, the probabilityof the "Islamic Bomb" scenario, of the leakage of nuclear technology fromPakistan to other Arab of Islamic countries, diminished. Westernintelligence agencies drew numerous lessons since the First Gulf War, fromthe exposure of Iraq's efforts to develop unconventional weapons to theexposure of Dr. Khan's activities. Apparently, they have learnt how to copemore effectively with the dangers associated with the proliferation oftechnologies of weapons of mass destruction. However, Western intelligenceagencies still encounter difficulties in coming to collect intelligenceabout extremist Islamic organizations around the globe.

Israel and in the West are now intensively addressing the issue of Iraniannuclear weapons. However, the possibility of a current "Islamic Bomb"scenario, triggered by the loss of Pakistani control over its nuclearweapons arsenal and the fall of such weapons into the hands of extremistIslamic elements, should not be ignored.

====================Lt. Col. (Res.) Dr. Rafael Ofek is an expert in the physics and technologyof nuclear power. He had served in the Israeli intelligence community as asenior researcher and analyst.