Wednesday, August 8, 2012

I promised an update on my early June global trade estimate. Here it is with about half of global trade reporting. The monthly data (with partial data through June) come from the WTO and I seasonally adjust them. The fall in June is still just as strong in Imports, but has shrunk somewhat in Exports - increasing the discrepancy between the two. As usual, time and more data will tell, but it certainly doesn't appear that June was a good month.

After growing from early 2009 to mid 2011, global trade appears to have roughly stagnated for most of the last 12 months. In particular, it appears to have had a bump up in February of this year, but then to have fallen back in March and April. A small bump in May has now been, it seems, offset by a larger fall in June. This continues to suggest that the global economy is either contracting, or at best growing very slowly.

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About Me

I'm a scientist and innovator in the technology industry, with a broad range of interests and experiences. I have a Physics PhD, MS in CS, and have done research, lived in cohousing communities, run a business, and designed technology products. Professionally, I have mainly worked on computer security problems. Currently I'm Adjunct Professor of Computer Science at Cornell, but this blog represents my views only.
Email me at stuart -- at -- earlywarn -- dot -- org. I do read all email, but because the blog is a part-time unfunded enterprise, I often fail to reply due to lack of time - apologies.