Californians should brace for longer, deadlier heat waves

A new study [PDF] commissioned by the Air Resources Board says Californians should brace for more frequent heat waves in the coming decades. The heat waves will likely have an increased death toll as a result of the state’s aging population.

Using a new modeling method that considers wind and cloud cover, among other mitigating factors, the study found that 10-or-more-day heat waves will increase by two to ten times over, (depending on the region) by the end of the century.

In the nine urban areas included in the study, heat currently causes about 500 deaths every year among senior citizens, who are particularly susceptible to it. By the end of the century, 4,700 to 8.800 seniors will die of heat-related causes every year, according to the analysis. The warming climate accounts for just a quarter of the change, however; the rest is due to shifting demographics.

The study was conducted by Scott Sheridan, a Kent State University geographer who also conducted a 2006 preliminary analysis for CARB.