Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Oct 13

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis

Minnesota’s offensive problems are not completely solved after one performance against one of the league’s worst defenses. Stefon Diggs is averaging a career-high 2.12 yards per route run, but he’s on pace to be on the field for 200 fewer passing snaps than he was in 2018 and offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski likely won’t have his star receiver on the field enough to fully exploit Philadelphia’s cluster injuries at cornerback. All 7 of Adam Thielen’s catches last week were for a first down or touchdown and Pro Bowl wide receiver is now up to 2.27 yards per route run (10th). Thielen only played 28% of his snaps in the slot in weeks 1-4 but was inside on 44% of snaps last week in New York. Eagles’ nickelback Avonte Maddox was surrendering 1.61 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd-worst) before getting injured and Orlando Scandrick was much better in relief. Scandrick conceded just 1 catch for 2 yards last week and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz sent the veteran to blitz 5 times with his new nickelback recording a pair of sacks and a hurry. Fletcher Cox ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency among interior defenders and has an advantageous matchup on the inside versus right guard Josh Kline and center Garrett Bradbury, who ranks last in pass blocking efficiency. Right tackle Brian O’Neill is one of 13 qualifying tackles yet to concede a sack and he should limit Brandon Graham, who ranks 3rd with 33 pressures thus far. The Vikings are one of two teams running on more than half of plays, but they should mostly be contained by Philadelphia’s top 10 rush defense.

DeSean Jackson has been out since week 1 and Carson Wentz hasn’t gotten much help from his other receivers. Wentz is suffering from an 8.7% drop rate, which is on pace for the highest of any quarterback in the last 5 years. Zach Ertz is off to a slow start, gaining 1.85 yards per route run (12th), and the Pro Bowler is unlikely to turn it around on Sunday. Minnesota’s defense concedes just 6.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends (6th), led by the solid safety duo of Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. Jason Peters and Lane Johnson are one of top tackle tandems in the league and should contain Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, who both rank in the top 10 in pressures among edge defenders. Rookie running back Miles Sanders has been a disappointment in forcing only 6 missed tackles thus far and the Eagles 20th-rated ground game won’t find much success versus a 4th-ranked Vikings rush defense led by Eric Kendricks, who leads the league with 18 run stops.

Kevin Stefanski needs to get Stefon Diggs on the field and move Adam Thielen to the slot where he’s more effective to help out Kirk Cousins. Whether he is smart enough to do that is another question. Carson Wentz’s receivers are unlikely to keep dropping balls at such a high rate and his performance will improve the rest of the season. Our model favors the Vikings by 2.3 with a predicted total of 44.2.