Global fossil fuel infrastructure currently in place will push temperatures above the 1.5 degrees Paris Agreement target, recent research has found.

In a paper published
in Nature this week,
scientists found that if existing energy infrastructure continues to operate as
it has in the past, global carbon dioxide emissions will rise to over 650
billion tonnes.

Such a figure exceeds
the carbon budget outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPPC) by 78 billion tonnes. The maximum limit of carbon emitted was set by the
body in order to maintain a chance of preventing pre-industrial warming levels
of surpassing 1.5 degrees.

The authors also found
that if power facilities already granted planning permission or currently under
construction begin to operate, they would produce almost 200 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide. The majority of these stations are in India, China, and other
developing economies.

The study was
published the same week
that the Government refused to grant a money message to allow the stalled Climate
Emergency Measures Bill to progress in the Dail. The Bill, which the Dail has
twice voted to progress to Third Stage, would end the issuing of new licences
to explore for oil and gas in Irish waters.

The study also found that if a 1.5 target is to be met, some existing infrastructure will need to be rendered inactive earlier than anticipated, or retrofitted with carbon capture technology.

Director of the Irish Climate Analysis and
Research Units (ICARUS) Professor Peter Thorne said in response to the
report that a carbon budget isn’t like a monetary bank account and that we
“can’t spend the full amount with impunity without fear of going into overdraft”.

“Issues include how we
account for the evolution of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases. In
particular, if we don’t aggressively reduce methane emissions it becomes nigh
on impossible to stay below 1.5 degrees,” Prof Thorne told The Green News.

He also raised the
issue of whether we are currently sitting at 0.9, 1, or 1.2 degrees of warming
already. “How pre-industrial is defined is an issue as is whether we use sea
surface temperatures or air temperatures and modern biases in the record,” he
said.

“But ultimately, I
think it is somewhat moot and angels dancing on the head of a pin territory. We
know the climate is changing and that the change is due to us. We know how to
reduce our impact. We should do so,” he stressed.

“There is no safe
operating space here. It’s not like going from where we are today to 1.5
degrees effects no additional change. It will,” he continued.

Reducing collective
environmental impacts and keeping warming to the lowest level possible should
be our course of action, according to Prof Thorne.