Most of the work is by Ron Ben Yishai, and it poses a very different, and, I think, more accurate view than in the rest of the world.

Direct conventional threats to Israel decreased dramatically due to internal conflicts and conflict among hostile states.

Second, while there are a greater number of terror groups, they are more diffuse and divided (especially along Sunni-Shi’a lines). As Ben Yishai points out, “Sinai and Syria have at the moment–and will likely have next year too–good, existential reasons to try not to get entangled in a wide-scale conflict with Israel.”

As for Syria, it isn’t going to make big problems for Israel, as it has enough problems of its own already.

And that’s also true of Lebanon: “Experts estimate [that Hizballah will] think twice before entering a conflict with the IDF. Hassan Nasrallah is maintaining his powers so that he can attack Israel if Iran’s nuclear facilities are attacked and in order to continue aiding the Assad regime in Syria. This aid– at Khamenei’s explicit order– put Nasrallah in a complicated situation against the other factions in Lebanon and weakened him.”

Hizballah “hardly strengthened its military capabilities in the past year… at the cost of hundreds of casualties” and it “has not received a lot of strategic weapons from Syria or Iran.” If Hizballah pushes Israel, it is estimated that it will suffer a very serious defeat.

Gaza and Hamas might pose a more serious problem. There is an effort by Hamas to build tunnels to launch rockets. But remember that here, out of self-interest, Egypt is cooperating to stop this, which takes us to our third point.

Third is Egypt. Israel and Egypt need each other to coordinate fighting Islamist terrorism in Sinai. And as for trust in the U.S. policy, Egypt is like a U.S. client that just got an Obamacare insurance cancellation in the mail. Egypt needs Russia, too.

“Not all of these positive opportunities and others will be realized in the coming year, but even if some of them yield a positive result–it’s good enough.” Remember that, again, this is in no way due to U.S. policy.

Fourth, the Sunni bloc has been split by Egyptian anger toward Turkey (Turkey’s support for the overthrown Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt recently kicking out the Turkish ambassador) and Saudis who suspect Turkey may be playing up to Iran (as well as distrust because they are Turks).

Fifth is the set of interests shared between Israel and Saudi Arabia, given Iran’s regional status and the threat hanging over them of Iranian hegemony as well as that of radical political Islamism.

Sixth, it will weaken focus on the Palestinian issue and increase the divide between Hamas and Fatah, with Iran becoming Hamas’s main patron.

“In general, Hamas is in a lousy situation and is trying to draw closer to Iran again in order to renew the financial aid.” But this also infuriates Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

I read this good article as further evidence that we Americans should isolate and contain all of Muslim West/Central Asia and consider Israel the same way as we considered anti-communist West Europe during the Cold War, using and reinforcing Netanyahu's retaining wall as a semi-permanent, well fortified barrier, with the Iron Dome overhead.

Doesn't anyone remember the Cold War and see the stark similarities between Soviet and Muslim tactics and strategies of infiltration and subversion? Why do we waste time, our lives and endless bales of money on trying to fathom the exquisite differences between these uniformly nasty and butchering Muslim factions? Let them eat each other, limb by limb.

Compounding this, too many of our busy-busy "advisers" nowadays have the attention spans of squirrels and birds.

Thanks for the reality based summation of the Israeli point of view on this complex regional situation. I have no patience for more postmodern constructs like moderate Morsis, and Rouhanis, and democratic Islamists.

When I started reading Mr. Levin's points to support his claim, I fully expected to find the following: Israel now has no reason to believe that America [i.e. the Obama administration] is their friend and cannot count on America for anything.

And beyond 2014? Sure, the current hostile regimes surrounding Israel have their conventional armies preoccupied with internal conflicts. But once things are settled, then what? I'm not particularly optimistic for the long term future.

I'm hoping the Israeli's will cut a deal with the Saudis, to attack Iran's soft target energy industry, putting all Iran on foot and in the dark, ending Iran's export earnings, cutting off support to terrorists, shutting down their nuclear program, and killing the Ayatollahs internal support due to lack of funding to pay everyone off.

There's no way, absolutely no way, that this hopelessly complex Muslim problem of ours will ever be sensibly addressed by this current grossly inept "administration". It's simply beyond the capabilities of any of them.....think of this poseur Susan Rice for starters.

This whole "admistration" all so tragically and dangerously inept.....BUT...it's politically correct among our new voter-demographic.

I had to read the last sentence twice just to make sure I hadn’t gone dyslexic.

Who but the most benighted Obama worshiper believes that US Mideast policy and our foreign policy in general is a “brilliant success?” If such a creature exists I suggest that PJ readers stay well away from them and immediately call 911.

That said the Saudi foreign minister has said that if Israel flew over Saudi Arabia, to attack Iran, the Saudi's wouldn't do anything to stop them, and would wait until they were back home to make a diplomatic protest for the violation of their air space.