KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Crude palm oil prices are expected to drop around 19 percent from current levels to 2,200 ringgit ($534) per tonne over the next two months as production recovers in the new oil year, a leading industry analyst, Dorab Mistry, said on Friday.

In the current oil year ending September, palm prices have gained 9 percent as dryness linked to an El Nino weather event curbed yields across top producers Indonesia and Malaysia. Benchmark futures 1FCPOc3 hit a five-month high on Thursday and are now trading at 2,700 ringgit per tonne.

While global palm oil output for 2015/16 is seen declining by significantly more than the previous forecast of 2.5 million tonnes, a strong recovery next year should offset the deficit.

"Overall in oil year 2015/16, palm oil production will decline by over 6 million tonnes, a decline which has never before been seen in history," Mistry said at industry conference Globoil India. But production next oil and calendar year could see a strong recovery of almost 6.5 million tonnes, he added.

"Let us not ignore the rapid expansion of palm oil production in Central and South America."

However, for 2015/16, Mistry said he expects a sharper-than-estimated annual drop in output from Indonesia and Malaysia.

He forecast a 3.5-4 million tonne decline in Indonesia's output, versus a fall of 1.2 million tonnes projected before. For Malaysia, he pegged output at 17.83 million tonnes, versus his previous estimate of 18.44 million tonnes.

For the calendar year 2016, he sees Indonesia churning out 28.5 million tonnes of palm oil, lesser than a prior forecast of 31 million tonnes, and Malaysia producing 18.2 million tonnes.

In other vegetable oils, Mistry said he sees prices of soyoil, palm's rival, falling to $650 per tonne on a free-on-board basis if palm declines to 2,200 ringgit, adding that lauric oil prices are also due for a correction.

Two Indonesian men who have been directly affected by forest fires are blocking access to the refinery with eight activists. The Greenpeace ship Esperanza has moored to the dock at the back of the refinery, preventing palm oil being unloaded from incoming oil tankers. IOI suppliers are linked to serious environmental and human rights abuses such as destruction of Indonesian rainforests, starting illegal fires and child labour. Palm oil from these companies continues to flood into Europe and the USA, research by Greenpeace reveals. Findings include: Destruction of primary forest in Papua and Kalimantan. Development on peatland

iwant2bmillionaireIOI corp has debt denominated in USD. Based on closing on 31dec2016, USDMYR was 4.49. Assuming it was mark-to-market there and resulted FX lost 330mio, then next QR should be better if USDMYR close below (as of today USDMYR around 4.44). Good luck.

16/03/2017 17:02

JunichiroThe 330m is paper loss in the sense that the co is not paying off its entire USD loan as it is long term. It is only paying what is due during the financial year. But the market is well-known for its knee jerk reaction n once the results were announced, huge selling started. Axiata has more USD loans than IOI but it is going up after the sell down.