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7 Thinking Errors On Decision Making

Everyday we need to make many decisions. Most the time they are easy choices to make. But at some point the decisions we make affect our future and other peoples too.

Making a decision requires us to predict our future feelings or preferences. Our future feelings then affect our choices. For example if you were to go to your friend birthday party but for few hours you been in a bad mood is likely you going to give it a miss.

Researches however show our predictions are not always accurate. The mistakes on our prediction can be explained by projection bias.

Projection bias happens when we caught thinking and acting as the future wont change, but will be the same as current situation.

Down below are some examples how projection bias affect our decision making.

1. Foreseeing hunger.

We tend to change from one emotional state to another. For instance if we went to a restaurant feeling really hungry the choice we’ll make in ordering food will be different from if wevwent and we had no much appetite. Or if we went shopping feeling hungry the shopping list will have much more food than you usually need. So in this situation you predicting hunger based in your current state of being.

2. Longing.

Psychologists refer to longing as an ocean waves that growing and growing then at some point it starts calming. It means the intense of craving is short lived. But this is the point that the addicts miss. The desire burn and they think they can’t resist. And they keep getting deeper on their addiction.

3. The darker future.

Projection bias cause individuals who are going through depression to think their future is just getting darker. It’s their current state of mind were they carry so much negative thoughts that affect their ability to predict a different future.

4. Unwanted shopping.

It leads us to make some purchases of stuff that we dont really need. But we still buy them and it’s likely they not going to be used, and covered of dust as times goes by. Still the affect projection bias on our decision making.

5. A similar mind.

Projection bias can influence our interpersonal thoughts. This happens when a person projects his feeling onto to another person, making this person resemble himself and providing insight of someones else mind. It takes one to know one. I know you are crazy, because I am crazy. Just alike. The projection is a defensive behaviour that protect us by attaching unacceptable feelings into someones else mind. The realization of this fact should make us more tolerant towards averse feelings.

6. Overconfidence.

Projection bias can lead to overconfidence when we face temptation. It make you over estimate the ability of your self control. An instance if you were a gambling addict you think you be in control if you enter a gaming shop. It’s vey likely you give in then.

7. The similatity to curse of knowledge.

Projection bias can have the effects of hindsight bias. So when you learn something then you project your current knowledge on the past. You think you knew it all along.

Or when you know something you think other people know that too. Also we over think about what we know and it becomes hard to imagine not knowing.

Lifting the curse of knowledge is a challenge. Living a mindfulness present and considering awarness of this bias will help us not falling victim of wrongly anticipating our feelings. Also appreciation of our emotional being state will help us experience better decision making.