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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

It will be a little later than usual because of the calendar, but the markets will be watching and waiting for the employment numbers to be released on July 8. While hiring as slowed from earlier this year, it is important that the markets see that we are adding jobs, not losing them and if the amount of jobs added improves from last months disappointing number, this would be a pleasant surprise. The reason that this recovery has been so painful is the slow recovery of jobs and real estate. Well, both are certainly interrelated. We need more jobs so that consumers are confident enough to form new households and purchase homes. And a recovering real estate industry will create even more jobs, moving us into a virtuous cycle.

There is so much bad press right now regarding both issues. For example, Brendan Lowney, macro-economist with Forest Economic Advisors, has indicated that it will take the formation of 6.5 million households over the next five years to clear the excess housing inventory. Meanwhile, Patrick Phillips, CEO for the Urban Land Institute, says that the U.S. population will grow by 150 million in the next 40 years. That is an average of almost 4 million per year. Now we realize that people being born dont buy real estate the next year, however, their parents do. And the vast majority of immigrants will rent firstbut many will rent houses. In other words, 6.5 million households over the next five years is no sweat, as long as we create the jobs for these people. We must not only stay positive with the number, we must again move towards 200,000 jobs created on a monthly basis. Finally, we would be amiss if we did not mention that, as we pointed out a few weeks ago, lower oil prices are needed to help alleviate this economic soft patch. Apparently, world governments agree wholeheartedly. The release of 60 million barrels from the worlds reserves is intended to do just that. Just when the Federal Reserve and the analysts had convinced us that the government had no bullets left to help the economy.