For Europe, Trump rise comes at worst time

WASHINGTON — “I’m not letting fear in, our happiness will be their worst punishment,” wrote a Washington area friend immediately after news broke of the terrorist attacks in Brussels. Her eight-year-old son, about to take a spring break trip, had just shared with his mother his new fear of airports and flying. “We’ll never change the way we live,” her email continued.

The terrorists have already made headway: We spend more time making our way through airports; we spend more money on counter-terrorism; we devote more energy to thinking how we work with allies to combat Islamic extremism.

Which is why it was alarming and bewildering to hear Donald Trump say this week that he’s tired of NATO and worn out with the U.S. always having to lead (the alliance “is costing us a fortune,” he claims). The reality television star told the Washington Post that others must do more, so that the U.S. can do less, allowing him to focus his presidency on rebuilding America.

In the real world, it doesn’t work that way.

For one thing, it’s the old specious argument of isolationists to suggest that problems at home demand disengagement abroad. The U.S. has always had problems at home — slavery, civil war, a Great Depression, Japanese internment, Joe McCarthy, and numerous recessions come to mind. We’ve had 47 recessions since the Declaration of Independence — five of those since Watergate — the turmoil of Vietnam, and de-segregation. The notion that domestic problems are suddenly so pressing that we can’t afford to be involved in the world is a little far-fetched.

So, too, is the notion that we will prosper as a nation from a sharp turn inward.

To hear Trump speak, you’d think he wants the Russians in, the Americans out, and the Europeans down.

Implicit in the emerging Trump Doctrine is an end to the world America made, to use Robert Kagan’s turn of phrase. Say goodbye to the liberal world order and hello to a new “spheres-of-influence” paradigm.

What does such a world look like? The Obama Doctrine of reticence gives us strong hints. In real estate terms, Russia gets Eastern Europe, China gets East Asia, and Iran and ISIL get the Middle East. And the U.S. gets left alone? That’s always been the isolationist’s fantasy. Trump seems to think there’s something in all this for America. But when it comes to foreign policy, you don’t get to just fire the bad guys.

* * *

Which brings us to American leadership, our closest allies, and NATO. The prospect of a Trump presidency could not come at a worse time.

The EU shows signs of coming unglued. There’s lingering bitterness over the last Greek bailout; the prospect of another Portuguese bailout; the refugee crisis; the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels; the piecemeal suspension of Schengen; and the possibility that in June Brits may throw in the towel and leave the bloc.

Delicately and diplomatically, America needs to be part of the conversation about Europe’s future.

The vision of a federal Europe is now dead. Nor is there any political energy or space for Margaret Thatcher’s alternative vision of a decentralized Europe of liberal democratic nation-states, embedded in a free-trade zone. The path toward a new vision is Europe’s business, but it’s in American interests that Europe’s destructive populism not carry the day. Does anyone imagine that a weak, divided and increasingly fragmented Europe as trading partner will help fuel the American economy?

Delicately and diplomatically, America needs to be part of the conversation about Europe’s future. It’s doubtful Trump has either the ear or touch for any of this.

Nor does Trump seem to grasp that NATO is good for us. The alliance was originally established, in the undiplomatic words of its first Secretary General Hastings Ismay, “to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down.”

To hear Trump speak, you’d think he wants the Russians in, the Americans out, and the Europeans down.

As he insists America pull back, Trump seems to delight in fawning over Russia’s authoritarian ruler Vladimir Putin, while deriding our closes allies. The current favorite for the Republican nomination claims he’ll make America safe from terrorism? Not with a toothless, useless NATO and Russia at Trump’s side.

I suspect that many Americans just like my friend, who insists she’ll never be cowed by the terrorists, know that containing the growing extremist threat involves more than bombast and glib one-liners. Yet parts of America are indeed hurting, and Trump knows how to exploit this. He’s a gifted master salesman. But voters beware. Donald Trump also turns out to be a low-energy guy when it comes to foreign policy — discard NATO, sit idly by as Europe falls apart.

Don’t expect any of this to make America great again.

Jeffrey Gedmin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, and senior advisor for Blue Star Strategies.

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Marcel

Why does Politico publish the trash this miserable neocon warmonger has written? To dare even cite the neocon criminal Kagan (or Nuland, that other despicable neocon) shows one’s true colors.

Neocon-ism, free trade and NATO must all be abolished forever. We want fair trade, not free trade.

And we “Europeans” dislike the EU, we know its undemocratic and filled with corporate and American stooges. The sooner the EU is gone, the better. I can’t wait for the time when those who betrayed our national democracies to the EU will have to answer for their treason.

We don’t want any of those “refugees” either. Tell Merkel to go to hell.

Posted on 3/24/16 | 9:54 AM CET

FC

This whole article reads like typical neocon bull, lined with weak sophism like equating ‘NATO members need to pay 2% of GDP like they’re contractually obligated to, which would allow the US to spend less covering their slack’ with isolationism.
The pseudo-imperialist mental retardation shared by people like the Cheneys, Max Boot, and the author here are exactly why I intend to vote for Trump in the general – while I have many misgivings regarding both his lack of detailed knowledge and his foggy and occasionally bizarre domestic policy plans, at least he’s been boldly against overthrowing random governments and the destructive, infantile power fantasy of “benevolent global hegemony”.
Hillary, Jeb, Rubio… the people that the ‘establishment’ have been pushing BY SHEER COINCIDENCE just HAPPEN to all have neocon tendencies. I’ll take Trump, Ted, or even Sanders just to deprive these brain-dead manchildren of control.

Posted on 3/24/16 | 10:49 AM CET

jiggy999

This article is a joke.

Posted on 3/24/16 | 12:24 PM CET

Veritas-Semper

As usual, Politico jumps to conclusions. Trump said that NATO costs the US a fortune. The counter argument to this statement would be that NATO does not cost a fortune for the remaining members of NATO.

The logical conclusion: Trump’s administration will negotiate for the other members of NATO to cough up more for their own protection.

Posted on 3/24/16 | 1:10 PM CET

ilna

Trump is very important for Europe. He could help us to wake up EU politicians.

Posted on 3/25/16 | 10:34 AM CET

Anglia

By all means explain why it is in America’s interests to be “needed” in Europe?
Europeans do not seem to feel diminished by the fact that the US does not “need” the protection of Europe’s security umbrella. In fact Europeans seem to celebrate the fact that their defence forces are rarely deployed outside their home territory and even then only employed as logistical or medical reserve rather than as a front line force. Why do you think it is impossible that the US might come to see things Europe’s way.
After all the US was an isolationist power for a considerable period – why is it inconceivable that she might revert to this economical and pragmatic stance? For that matter why would any nation wish to be locked into a permanent relationship with an dependent partner like Europe?

Trump is a fool period. However having served 28 years in the military I’ve seen how our”allies” have repeated taken advantage of the US. Why is the US with a population of say 340 million defending Europe with population of say 350 million? Let’s be honest, Russia is in no position to dominate Europe due to its own mismanagement and declining demographics. As for China the export wagon just broke down and they will more than likely be crushed under their own wieght. Here is an eye opener for all you wonks, go to Walmart and look at all the poor people, then remember the old saying about the apple rotting from the inside out.

Posted on 3/26/16 | 4:18 PM CET

Stefan Stackhouse

World War II ended two-thirds of a century ago. The Berlin Wall came down, the Warsaw Pact became defunct, and Soviet Communism ended a quarter century ago. The EU as a population bloc, land area, and integrated economy is the peer of the US, and has the resources to defend itself. All it lacks is the will. They have found it easy to not do what they should have done and in a normal world would have done: dedicate the resources necessary to assure their own defense.

It is time for some tough love. We should not be irresponsible about it, though. There needs to be plenty of advance notice and planning before we withdraw, for it will take them a while to build their own forces up. It is way past due for this process to get started, though. We’ve been there for far more than long enough.

Posted on 3/26/16 | 4:21 PM CET

mf

please do not put too much into Trump. Trump represents the end of the road for Republican propaganda of the last 10-20 years, diverting attention from growing economic displacement by blaming various minorities and mythical “progressives”. The Republican establishment has been hoisted on it’s own petard, and the party will pay the price. The most likely outcome is one term president Hillary Clinton, while political parties are reorganizing themselves.

Posted on 3/26/16 | 4:53 PM CET

RT Colorado

Americans are no longer willing to foot the bill for Europe’s defense. Europe can go it alone for all most Americans care. Europe has an attitude that it doesn’t merit. In less than forty years Europe torn itself apart and help usher in communism. Since the end of World War Two, Europeans have been shielded by America and what does America get in return except scorn and ridicule. So now we’ve developed our own attitude and that attitude is let Europe deal with Europe’s problems and let America deal with America’s problems. The days of Americans paying taxes to keep the sea lanes open for Europeans and Asians is over. The days of spending billions on defending a Europe that doesn’t care enough to spend their own money and commit their own manpower to its defense, those days are gone. If Europe wants something from us, we’re all too happy to provide, at a reasonable profit. If we want something from Europe we’re all too happy to pay a reasonable price to get it, but the free ride is over.

Posted on 3/26/16 | 8:52 PM CET

Tim Bond

What is the actual cost of NATO? No figures available.

New US / NATO missile bases in Poland and Romania at what cost to each European nation? New US army reserves stationed in Baltic States waiting for Russians?

Europeans may question this new cold war mission especially as Russia never invaded Ukraine; just demanded devolution as agreed under Minsk 2 for Russian-speaking eastern provinces. Why persist in confronting Russia on behalf of certain nations like Poland and Ukraine for eternity?

sam

Russia gets Eastern Europe…What?

Does Western Europe have no guts that they would allow Russia to dominate Eastern Europe unless the US slavishly protects Eastern Europe? And if that is the case, it just proves Trump’s point the Western Europe is just free-riding off American blood and treasure.