Consumers’ confidence in the economy nearly unchanged in
September

Consumers' confidence in the economy improved
slightly in September from August. The consumer confidence
indicator stood at 6.3 in September, having been 5.0 in August and
in July. Confidence in the economy was slightly stronger than one
year ago (3.4) but clearly below the long-term average (12.3). The
data are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for
which 1,451 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 2
and 18 September.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Consumers were in September pessimistic about the future of
Finland's economy and particularly about the development of
unemployment. However, estimates about unemployment and Finland's
economy improved somewhat in September from August.
Consumers’ views concerning their own economy were still
cautious. In contrast, they considered households' saving
possibilities fairly good.

September was not regarded as a favourable time for taking out a
loan and particularly for buying durable goods. The personal treat
of unemployment experienced by employed persons was slightly higher
in September than in August.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In September, 29 per cent of consumers believed that
Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming
twelve months, while 32 per cent of them thought that the
country’s economy would deteriorate. Twelve months earlier
the corresponding proportions were 19 and 42 per cent.

In all, 22 per cent of consumers believed in September that
their own economy would improve and 16 per cent of them feared it
would worsen over the year. One year ago, the respective
proportions were 23 and 14 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 15 per cent of consumers thought in September that
unemployment would decrease over the year, but over one-half of
consumers, or 54 per cent of them, believed it would increase. The
corresponding proportions were 12 and 61 per cent in August and 12
and 58 per cent one year ago.

Eleven per cent of employed persons believed in September that
their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past
few months, whereas 22 per cent thought it had grown. Forty-three
per cent of employed persons thought the threat had remained
unchanged and 23 per cent felt that they were not threatened by
unemployment at all.

Consumers estimated in September that consumer prices would go
up by 2.9 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted
average inflation rate is 2.3 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In September, 35 per cent of consumers thought the time was
favourable for making major purchases. Sixteen per cent of
households were fairly or very certain to buy a car and five per
cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. Seventeen per cent of
households were planning to make renovations to their dwelling.

Saving and taking out a loan

In September, 56 per cent of consumers considered saving
worthwhile. In all, 65 per cent of households had been able to lay
aside some money and 79 per cent believed they would be able to do
so during the next 12 months.

In September, 51 per cent of consumers regarded the time good
for raising a loan. Twelve months ago the respective proportion was
62 per cent. Eleven per cent of households were planning to raise a
loan within one year.

Consumers' views of the economy

Average 10/1995-

Max. 10/1995-

Min. 10/1995-

09/2012

08/2013

09/2013

Outlook

A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI =
(B2+B4+B7+D2)/4

12,3

22,9

-6,5

3,4

5,0

6,3

--

B2 Own economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

8,6

14,1

2,3

5,1

5,7

4,4

--

B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

3,6

25,3

-27,1

-14,2

-7,0

-3,6

-

B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per
cent)

2,3

4,6

0,6

3,3

2,6

2,9

B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time
(balance)

-1,5

27,6

-51,1

-25,2

-27,4

-22,0

--

B8 Own threat of unemployment now
(balance)

0,1

7,6

-18,8

-2,4

-5,0

-6,6

--

C1 Favourability of time for purchasing
durables (balance)

19,1

41,8

-14,2

3,7

3,7

-1,3

--

C2 Favourability of time for saving
(balance)

11,4

36,8

-19,6

9,8

7,2

7,8

-

C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan
(balance)

17,2

42,0

-47,1

16,7

6,7

4,4

-

D2 Household's saving possibilities in the
next 12 months (balance)

38,6

52,2

10,9

47,9

48,7

46,3

+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting
the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive
answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the
average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance
figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and
+100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the
view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is
very good, + Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is
poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average
has been compared to standard deviation.

The population and sample of the Survey

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises 4.4 million
persons aged 15 to 84 and their 2.6 million households in Finland.
The population was extended to persons aged 75 to 84 starting from
January 2012. The gross size of the monthly sample of the Survey is
2,350 persons (previously 2,200 persons).

In September, the non-response rate of the Survey was 38.3 per
cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused from the
survey or were otherwise prevented from participating, as well as
those who could not be contacted.

The extension of the population, that is, responses from persons
aged 75 to 84, is estimated to have weakened the value of the
consumer confidence indicator by good one unit starting from
January 2012. This has primarily been caused by a drop in the
balance figure of one component, namely own household's saving
possibilities. The extension of the population has also somewhat
affected the results on owning various home technology.