5.29.2011

Bulls are NBA title favorites

Thanks to spectacular performances by their respective Ds -- Chicago's defense and Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki -- both teams with home advantage are off to a 1-0 start in this year's NBA conference finals. Home teams in this position have gone on to win the series 85 percent of the time, an impressively high number that seems to set us down the path toward a Chicago Bulls-Dallas Mavericks NBA finals matchup in 2011.

However, a smart fan would be wise not to jump to conclusions this year, as each of these two Conference finals series is more closely matched than usual. The top three ranked teams in the data-driven TeamRankings. com predictive ratings are now Chicago, Miami Heat and Dallas, respectively, with the Oklahoma City Thunder ranked sixth. Chicago stands only a tenth of a point higher than Miami, though, meaning it's essentially a two-way tie for best team in the league. What's interesting, though, is that none of these teams is a juggernaut from a historical perspective.

In fact, Chicago's league-leading power rating is the second-worst rating for a No. 1-ranked team in the last seven years; the 2011 Bulls even rate as a whopping 1. 6 points worse than the 2008 Boston Celtics. If Derrick Rose and company jumped in a hot tub time machine and traveled back in time to compete for an NBA championship, throughout most of recent history, they would not be the favorites to win.

6 comments:

i think miami heat is unstoppable and unbeatable.everyone is going to root for one team in the finals.im just saying that i think its funny when people start repping teams that they have no association with,especially the two team that is fighting for the finals,they have been scrutinized all year.very interesting post!thanks for sharing this.

The Lakers don't have a 0% chance of winning it's the exact opposite the mavs have a 100% chance of winning being at home leading 3-0 and no i do not think the Lakers suck i mean they did win championships back 2 back just that the mavs r the best team in basketball history and can't blame the Lakers 4 getting swept by the best team in basketball history.

Heat vs Mavs is a good match. I bet Heat will going to have the upper hand on this one. Dwayne and Lebron combo is definitely the visible best weapon of Heat, but Mavericks outside shooting is going to be a tough challenge. Both teams are good, so I’m looking forward for a good fight.