Pages

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

July 27 Severe Weather Discussion

See the bottom of the post for a summary.

Discussion... Front lifting slowly northward will continue to slow down or come to a halt in the North IL/South WI area out west through Iowa. Storms will initiate tonight along that front. These storms will be heavy rain producers, and flash flood watches have been posted for South WI and portions of North IL. The same goes for a small portion of NE Iowa. As these thunderstorms initiate, the SPC believes these storms could have tornado potential. The storms could have a supercell twist, with energy so high. As a matter of fact, the latest SPC discussion laid out indicated that CAPE values are 1000-2000 j/kg HIGHER than expected. This means a larger threat for severe weather on a fairly larger scale. There are some issues, though. Warming is beginning to develop aloft, which would suppress storms. There is weak large scale forcing in the area, and heights are rising slowly. That said, there is certainly a threat for severe thunderstorms, but there are issues in the process of initiating them.
Timing of these storms is crucial. The Rapid Refresh Model is indicating the storms beginning at 7 PM CDT of earlier, with impact time at 7-8 PM CDT.
The RUC model projects the storms to fire around 6 PM CDT, and impact the region throughout at least 1 AM CDT.

Summary:
-Storms will likely be severe in many aspects if they are to develop.
-It appears storms will begin to fire from 4-8 PM CDT, and impact the regions from 7 pm CDT onwards through the night.

ShareThis

Privacy Policy

Attribution and Other Information

The Weather Centre is a nonprofit weather blog made to share weather information to others in a reporting and teaching environment. It is expected that attribution to images and quotes is given to the rightful owner of whatever images and quotes are used by The Weather Centre. In all actions of displaying images and quotes, it is done in a reporting way and with proper credit and attribution given, thus abiding by USC US Copyright Law Title 17, Chapter 1, §107.

---

If you find an image on this blog that you find to be in violation of copyright laws or offensive in any other way, please contact us by e-mail using the contact info at the top of this page, and request to have the image(s) taken down.

2010-2015 The Weather Centre

All Rights Reserved

Images provided in posts are obtained via Internet and are property of their respectful owners. Travel theme. Theme images by Airyelf. Powered by Blogger.