Heartworm disease and Lyme disease are forecasted to be highly problematic in 2017

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The 2017 forecasts are in, and CAPC is forecasting an active year for heartworm disease and Lyme disease. Based on analysis of multiple environmental drivers of disease, CAPC is predicting heartworm disease and Lyme disease will increase well beyond their established endemic boundaries, leading to higher than average caseloads. The 2017 forecasts for Ehrlichia and Anaplasma are less volatile in comparison, requiring ongoing surveillance in regions of endemic disease. One exception is the Ohio River Valley, which is experiencing convergence of Ehrlichia from the south and Lyme disease from the Central Midwest and Northeastern US.

Heartworm disease forecast

The United States as a whole experienced above average precipitation and seasonal temperatures in 2016, leading to perfect conditions for breeding the mosquitoes that transmit heartworm disease. Last year's forecasted heartworm outbreak in Northern California unfortunately came to fruition. Given the ongoing trend toward above average temperatures and rainfall, CAPC is forecasting high levels of heartworm disease activity in 2017 for most of the country, with an especially active year for the Western United States. Of great concern is the ongoing precipitation that the West is currently seeing this winter, leading to the prediction that heartworm disease will continue to increase even farther beyond its endemic range in 2017.

Year-round protection, annual testing

The best way to protect your patients is to advise owners of the importance of year-round prevention, even during the winter months. You can use the CAPC Parasite Prevalence Maps to support your recommendation by underscoring the risks in your area and in regions of the country your clients may travel with their pets. It’s also critical to emphasize the importance of compliance and using products according to label. The use of CAPC Parasite Prevalence maps and Forecast maps are a validated tool for increasing client willingness to engage in parasite prevention. Sign up for local alerts today by visiting the CAPC Parasite Prevalence Maps and selecting "Get Updates".

The Science behind the Forecasts

Vector-borne disease is dynamic and ever changing, driven by multiple factors that affect the development of arthropod vectors and the pathogens they carry. Leading parasitologists work in collaboration with a team of statisticians to identify regions of the country that may experience higher parasite incidence in the months ahead. Numerous factors are analyzed, including the number of positive disease tests and the influence of weather patterns, vegetation indices, the changing distribution of wildlife that may harbor the parasite, and human population density. Using this multi-disciplinary approach, we are leveraging everyone’s expertise to focus on a single common interest: forecasting parasitic disease. While these forecasts predict the potential risk of a dog testing positive, they do not necessarily reflect the occurrence of clinical disease.

To learn more about the science behind the maps, full access to our manuscripts describing the methodology and fidelity of our forecasts can be found here.