equity reports

The positive dynamic behind Spanish stocks is a fact. Carax- Alphavalue’s analysts have repeatedly stressed it and indeed have selected to be, for most of H1, over-weighted in Spain in their Portfolio, a selection of stocks for a dynamic return.

Year 2017 will bring a change in trend for Técnicas Reunidas, after two years of sharp declines in investment in the petrochemical sector (-43% in 2015 and -27% in 2016e) as a result of the drop in oil prices. According to ACF’s analysts this hypothesis is supported by forecasts for there being an equilibrium between supply and demand for oil by mid-2017, which should reactivate investment in the sector.

Miquel y Costas has known how to create a niche for itself amongst the big global producers, taking advantage of the fact it is historically well-positioned in its sector (paper for the tobacco industry), with very few competitors and high entry barriers.

Ezentis ended 2016 with an order book worth €848.4 million and a ratio of 2.8x sales. This figure, combined with the fact the bulk of the order book is recent (79% of the contracts awarded in 2016), guarantee a large part of the group’s future results, as well as reducing their volatility.

Eight months ago Carax-Alphavalue held the view that Gamesa was fully priced ahead of it falling into the Siemens bag. This opinion proved correct only for the following two months. Another six months on and the Spanish wind-turbine manufacturer is looking decidedly expensive at €21.5, even though they have upgraded their target price on the back of a strong 2016 delivery.

OHL will more than quadruple its Ebitda to 1.009 billion euros in 2017, increasing sales by 30% to 5.027 billion from a year earlier, according to estimates prepared by the company for its Investor Day and sent to the Stock Market Regulator (CNMV).

José Benito de Vega | Axiare has outperformed the other listed Socimis, as well as the IBEX-35 since it made its market debut in July 2014. The rise in the company’s NAV per share has reflected this upbeat trend, increasing over 30% in three years.

CIE Automotive ended 2016 eliminating any doubts on its capacity to meet the objectives in its 2016/2020 Strategic Plan. In fact, it has brought forward its target of doubling Attributable Net Profit by one year to 2019.

The company is a great business that can raise €8bn to essentially hand over the proceeds to the US courts without destroying its market cap (c.-10% on the news). “Hats off then to Mr Cryan, the CEO of Deutsche Bank, for keeping the benefits of the doubt for more than a year into the job”, says Carax- Alphavalue’s analysts.

The European Commission has initiated proceedings against Spain for the limits it imposes on direct or indirect participation in Red Eléctrica (REE) and Enagás and for restricting voting rights. Brussels could take Spain to the European Court of Justice if the Spanish government’s response is not convincing and there could be a fine in the end.