01608cam a22002417 4500001000600000003000500006005001700011008004100028100002200069245010000091260006600191490004100257500001700298520067000315530006100985538007201046538003601118700002101154710004201175830007601217856003701293856003601330w7837NBER20150303173804.0150303s2000 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAuerbach, Alan J.10aPerspectives on the Budget Surplush[electronic resource] /cAlan J. Auerbach, William G. Gale. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2000.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w7837 aAugust 2000.3 aThis paper provides alternative measures of federal budget surpluses over 10-year and long-term horizons. Official baseline budget forecasts are based on a series of statutory requirements that may be at variance with reasonable expectation. More plausible notions of current policy toward discretionary spending, taxes and retirement trust funds imply that surpluses over the next 10 years will be substantially smaller than the baseline forecasts indicate. Properly accounting for long-term imbalances in social security and the rest of the budget implies that, under plausible definitions of current policy, the federal government faces a long-term shortfall. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web.1 aGale, William G.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w7837.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w783741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w7837