Comments on: Your Portfolio is "Better than You Thought"http://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/
by Steve McIntyreSun, 02 Aug 2015 16:57:45 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/By: ¡Está ocurriendo y es peor de lo que creíamos! « PlazaMoyua.orghttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187384
Sat, 18 Jul 2009 21:10:41 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187384[…] Your Portfolio is “Better than You Thought” […]
]]>By: Robinedwardshttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187383
Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:24:03 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187383Regarding #49 (Earle Williams) I looked at various Alaska data sets some years ago, and noticed the climate shift – which is not a difficult task! However, on careful analysis it seems to have occurred immediately after October 1976, the upward step being obvious in the November data for places like Anchorage and Fairbanks. Several other minor steps can also be found but the Oct/Nov one is the most fascinating.

What was the cause of this phenomenon? Are there any references or links to papers that attempt to explain why it happened? It seems to be a feature of south coastal and interior areas, but not for the far north west. Mysterious!

Barrow does not show this step, but two others can be found. July 1977 and 1993. Since then there has been no discernible change

Along the west side of NZ the effect of an El Nino tends to be increased west to southwesterly wind,numerous depressions and cold fronts welling up from the Southern Ocean, cool surface temperatures and substantially increased precipitation. There is a “teleconnection” but the sense in inverted. This same inverted teleconnection occurs during La Nina when the west side of NZ is less windy, slightly warmer, and a little drier.

Perhaps the signal you should look for in Australia is not the classical strong upward temperature spike. In fact when one thinks about it, if the BoM mean is showing such a spike, it might be evidence of a doctored record.

Cheers

Rob R

]]>By: GTFrankhttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187381
Fri, 10 Jul 2009 15:36:24 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187381Will you please add an IPCC filtered line to the graph?
]]>By: Lucy Skywalkerhttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187380
Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:14:40 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187380Re: Earle Williams (#49), I think it could be very interesting to look at local temperature plots through 1998. I’ve suspected that the 2007 Arctic melting was a delayed effect of 1998, I seem to remember seeing recently a Morlet wavelet picture that fitted in with this idea. Sorry cannot locate for the mo. There was something right out of the pattern that happened in 1998.
Perhaps this should be for WUWT or Jennifer M not CA.
]]>By: Earle Williamshttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187379
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:03:15 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187379Re: Geoff Sherrington (#39),

Geoff,

Alaska remains a contrarian state. The temperature data compiled by the University of Alaska (available at this link) show no 1998 El Nino response for most of the state. The only places where there is a pronounced reponse are Barrow and Kotzebue. The inland sites and the rest of the coastal stations are flat (or flattish) for 1998 but show a pronounced drop in 1999.

I compiled some non-NWS data from other Arctic sites to compare with Barrow. While they don’t show the prounounced decadal increase that Barrow does there is a common uptick for 1998. It would seem that the 1998 warming was local to the Arctic coast and didn’t influence the rest of the state.

By the way, the average temperature data for places such as Anchorage dramatically show the effect of the Great Pacific Shift circa 1976. For 1953 to 1975 the mean annual temperature was 34.8F, whereas for 1977 to 2008 the mean annual temp is 37.1F. Have a look at Anchorage temps and check out the 1976 shift.

]]>By: Cold Lynxhttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187378
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 19:09:34 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187378Lovely smoothing. Brilliant.
But it is also a serious lesson to be learned from this.
Is the climate best described by global average temperatures? Is the natural climate changes best described in global temperarture changes of tenth of degrees?
I dont thinks so.
The climate for mankind are best descibed by the extreme conditions. Not by the average conditions. The variance may be more intresting than the average.
A proper smooting will make more sense for the extremes than for the average.
]]>By: Jeff Albertshttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187377
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 15:54:09 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187377Re: Jeff Id (#5),

Heh, only misleading when it shows cooling. Funny how that works.

]]>By: Len van Burgelhttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187376
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:34:19 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187376Re: Geoff Sherrington (#47),
I can only go by the climate data online, but it seems the minimum temperatures for central and northern inland Australia in 1998 were well above normal. Tennant Creek +1.2 Halls Creek +1.5 Balgo Hills +1.2, Yulara +1.5 Warburton +1.8 Giles +1.5. These are above the long term mean, so the anomaly from the 1961-1990 average may be a little different (especially Warburton). These stations are in a data sparse area and would account for a large part of the 1998 ‘record’ warm minimum anomaly of 1.09. As mentioned, the Tmax was nothing special that year. It was the Tmin which accounted for the high mean temperature anomaly.
]]>By: Geoff Sherringtonhttp://climateaudit.org/2009/07/08/rahmstorf-smoothed-portfolio-valuation/#comment-187375
Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:35:36 +0000http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=6519#comment-187375Re: Len van Burgel (#43),

Yes, I am aware of this. I simply have not encountered the stations to date that add to give Australia 1988 such a high. Do you know of any stations that have a really strong 1998 signal?