TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES — On the landmark volcanic knoll that gives Elephant Butte Lake its name are an array of evaporation-induced water lines, like bathtub rings, from the reservoir's nearly century-old existence.

"The water level you see there — that's when it was full," said Daniel Lewis, 27, a laborer who worked near the historic Dam Site recreation area last week.

Striking was the distance between that peak water mark of decades past and the actual lake surface nowadays. The gap has widened this year, one symptom of an extended drought plaguing the region.

The shrinking storage in the lake and its much-smaller companion, Caballo Reservoir, has farmers and water users from Garfield to Las Cruces to El Paso on edge, with the new year and a new growing season just around the corner. Compounding their concern is an anticipated weak snowfall this winter in the Rocky Mountains, which supply the reservoirs with runoff.

"It's difficult times, and it doesn't look like it's getting any better, at least for now," said Gary Esslinger, manager of the Las Cruces-based Elephant Butte Irrigation District.

Other signs of the dryness, much nearer to Las Cruces, include a bone-dry Burn Lake and local riverbed - both unusual in water history.

Eight-year low

Elephant Butte Lake typically hits its low point for the year in fall, when irrigators shut down the dam, halting the outflow.

This year's low point happened on Sept. 4, when the lake hit an elevation of 4,297 feet and a water volume of 109,445 acre-feet, according to the U.

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S. Bureau of Reclamation. An acre-foot contains about 326,000 gallons.

That's about 5 percent full.

A lake level that low was last reached in 2004, when the lake's elevation was 4,294 feet, officials said. That was another period of heightened drought.

In total, there have been 19 years — including 2012 — over the Elephant Butte Lake's history in which the level has been as low as this year, according to the reclamation bureau. Several were logged in the '50s and '60s.

The shortage poses problems for EBID, which is assigned the mission of delivering surface water to 7,000-plus members — mainly farmers — throughout Doña Ana County and southern Sierra County.

Phil King, New Mexico State University professor and consultant water engineer for EBID, said this year's river-water drought is even worse than in the early 2000s, when there were two severe seasons in a row. Now, EBID is about to enter its third consecutive short year. It's more akin to the period between 1954 and 1956, an extreme drought, he said.

Farmers in the Mesilla and Rincon valleys have turned to pumping groundwater the last two seasons — a move that adds expense to their operations and sometimes hurts crop production. State water officials have expressed concerns about the possible long-term impact to the aquifers.

Usually each winter, the stretch of the Rio Grande near Las Cruces has harbored a trickle of water, even with the reservoir dams shut off. But that's not the case this season.

"It's not good," said Las Cruces pecan farmer Phil Arnold. "I'm 57 years old, and this is the first time in my life I remember that, for two years in a row, the water wasn't running in the river."

Continued Arnold: "Burn Lake is dried up. The (irrigation) drains are dried up."

Snowpack slim

The snowpack in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico so far is "way behind" past year's levels for this point in the season, said King. In addition, winter forecasts don't suggest an El Niño effect — which tends to result in more snowfall for the mountains in question.

Even if an unexpectedly large amount of precipitation fell this winter, King said, it still would have to survive sublimation, which vaporizes snow, instead of melting it. But even if a decent run-off happened, water still must make it to Elephant Butte Lake, passing through the Albuquerque-area irrigation district that's also impacted by the same drought, he said.

"So, the cards are stacked against us," King said.

As the situation stands now, farmers may be facing a less-than 6 acre-inch per-acre allotment next season, though it's too soon to say, King said. And the start of the irrigation season may be delayed until June, at least, he said.

EBID considers a full allotment to be 36 acre-inches per irrigable land.

More impact

Lewis, a Truth or Consequences resident, said people tend to stay away because "word-of-mouth" about the low lake water leaves people with a negative impression. However, the current water level, while low, still provides lots of opportunity for recreation, he said.

"There's plenty of water to boat and tube," he said.

Formerly beneath water, patches of ground and outcroppings that haven't been dry for years are now walkable.

While local residents said there's still plenty of fishing and recreation happening, other lake-goers said the drought is a hindrance.

"It has a pretty big impact, as far as the lake level being low," said Robbie Fresquez, 38, of Las Cruces. "The interest level goes down, as far as fishing and boating."

Fresquez said, while he hasn't gone to the lake in about a month, a friend recently damaged a boat after hitting ground. The lake becomes more difficult to navigate, thanks to submerged outcroppings, he said. And, favorite fishing spots tend to disappear, either because the lake declines so much or because fish move elsewhere as a result of the low water.

Baudelio and Heather Muñoz recently moved their boat-related business, Muñoz Fiberglass & Repair from inside T or C, into the community of Elephant Butte. That and the winter lull in lake visitation make it tough to determine the impact of the low water level on tourism, they said. There's still activity, though, she said.

"We see people driving by with their boats," said Heather Muñoz, speaking from the shop, 700 N.M. Hwy. 195. "His brother went last week fishing from the shore, and he caught fish."

T or C residents David Davila and Janina Akin said they're kayaking enthusiasts, and the water level poses no problems for them.

"It just makes the beach bigger," David Davila said.

Slim hope

Following the shutting off of the dam each year, the water level at Elephant Butte Lake also tends to rebound slightly, as small amounts of rainfall run-off and underground water buoy the supply.

Indeed, Elephant Butte Lake's elevation on Oct. 21 was just a foot higher than the Sept. 4 low point, according to a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation fact sheet. Roughly a month later, on Nov. 18, the elevation was the same, sitting at 4,298 feet.

The most residents and farmers can do is hope for snowfall between now and next April, officials said. Esslinger said one year in the '50s had a lower water level at Elephant Butte Lake than currently, but, by the following spring, it had rebounded to nearly 860,000 acre feet.

King said a dramatic recharge isn't impossible, but it is unlikely.

"We've been through droughts before, and we'll get through this one," he said.

Said T or C resident, Daniel Lewis: "Hopefully it gets wet this winter."

vDiana Alba Soular can be reached at (575) 541-5443; follow her on Twitter @AlbaSoular