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Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

We spent 12 years on the "buy hitters, scrounge for pitchers" model under Bowden.

Nothing's going to change: by the very nature of the beast starting pitchers with ALWAYS be "overvalued." There's just no changing that. And there's just no changing the fact that the teams that have mattered, since time out of mind, are the ones who possess starting pitching. And the ones who survive the postseason have starting pitching AND a bullpen. And the Reds still have neither.

I guess I'm just not buying the theory that the Reds can magically and proactively exploit the hitting and defense market and ride that train to multiple Central championships and pennants. First, the Reds just aren't that cagey a franchise; second, some other team in the Central will pluck up enough pitching to continually beat the Reds, who have none.

Right. But the Reds current context includes three pitchers that have reasonable shots to be productive in the rotation (Homer, Cueto, Maloney). The arms available on the free agent market really are more expensive versions of similar risk IMHO.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Right. But the Reds current context includes three pitchers that have reasonable shots to be productive in the rotation (Homer, Cueto, Maloney). The arms available on the free agent market really are more expensive versions of similar risk IMHO.

Because they're all loaded with risk, the young guys and the FAs, the Reds would do well to minimize the risk by increasing the pool at their disposal.

Look, the FA market is talent for dollars. You can get pitchers and conserve all your talent (even for trades). I like the equation. I respect that folks have looked at the available FAs and found nothing to their liking -- it's a thin crop. But, and FCB makes the same point, if you're operating under the assumption that the Reds can "beat the FA market" in any given offseason by identifying and signing the undervalued pitchers, I think you're being too optimistic. And, if you're pinning hopes on Belisle, let me say I hope you're right, but I'm still seeing a guy at sea.

Good discussion, and thanks to all who challenged/inspired.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

The best pitching acquisitions of the last 20 years for this franchise were undervalued guys they got lucky with -- Harang and Jose Rijo. They have to hope to get lucky like that again while simultaneously improving their scouting and development programs for young pitchers. It's incredibly hard. If MLB ever gets its head out of its rear end and changes the draft so that the rich don't get richer, that will help a little. There are rumblings that it might finally happen.

The other option is to overpay in terms of talent and contract extension for an established stud arm that might go on the market. Johan Santana may be available this offseason or at next year's deadline. If the Reds offered a package built around Bailey, Bruce, Encarnacion and maybe a lower level guy, that would have to be tempting for the Twins.

Everyone here will say that's insane, but it's like trading for Pedro in his prime. No matter what you give up, it's worth it -- as long as you sign him to what will be an outrageous extension. But the hardest thing to find is a true ace. You'd have one, and you'd still have some pieces -- Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Votto, Dunn, Phillips, Junior, Freel, Keppinger, Gonzalez, etc. to field a legitimate team and still have some trade assets.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

The other option is to overpay in terms of talent and contract extension for an established stud arm that might go on the market. Johan Santana may be available this offseason or at next year's deadline. If the Reds offered a package built around Bailey, Bruce, Encarnacion and maybe a lower level guy, that would have to be tempting for the Twins.

Yes - I've pondered the same possibility. But it's INCREDIBLY risky. Santana is 1 player, and you're talking about sacrificing 3-4 building blocks, among whom is a pitcher who may quickly gain on Santana. Say Homer becomes a legit #3...I'd rather make a go of it with Harang/Arroyo/Homer/Bruce et al than have 80-100MM tied up in 1 arm and a few holes to patch. And, if you're talking about still having Dunn around... what's that, 30MM+ devoted to 2 players, one of them being a corner outfielder?

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by jojo

Right. But the Reds current context includes three pitchers that have reasonable shots to be productive in the rotation (Homer, Cueto, Maloney).

IMO the Reds need some arms to act as a buffer between those kids and the majors for the next year. Not a one of them has had a good full season in AAA yet. It's a classic case of kids who probably aren't as ready as the team needs them to be. Pitching development has to be allowed to work at its own pace. We saw the folly of treating an unprepared kid (Bailey) like a savior this season. The Reds have to learn. They aren't ready when you need them, they're ready when they're ready.

The good news is that Harang and Arroyo are good pitchers. I really do think Belisle can come back next year and be an effective innings eater. The main question for the Reds is what can they get to fill the remaining void:

- good pitchers
- young unproven pitchers who are a year or two (or three) ahead of the current crop of prospects
- filler/innings eaters, for whom the team shouldn't be shelling out a lot of cash

Of course modern Reds history has been filled with a fourth type -- bad pitchers, some who cost way too much. That's what the Reds need to avoid.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Yes - I've pondered the same possibility. But it's INCREDIBLY risky. Santana is 1 player, and you're talking about sacrificing 3-4 building blocks, among whom is a pitcher who may quickly gain on Santana. Say Homer becomes a legit #3...I'd rather make a go of it with Harang/Arroyo/Homer/Bruce et al than have 80-100MM tied up in 1 arm and a few holes to patch. And, if you're talking about still having Dunn around... what's that, 30MM+ devoted to 2 players, one of them being a corner outfielder?

I'd say it's incredibly risky to act like a group of kids are true building blocks. Imagine if the Reds had decided it was insanity to trade Pat Zachry, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman for Tom Seaver. I tend to be of the opinion that modern thinking has gotten extremely twisted on this subject.

Johan Santana is the best pitcher alive. I'd gladly move Bailey, Stubbs and Encarnacion for him. Bruce is one of my two untouchables (along with Harang), but I'd think the Reds could trump pretty much any other offer put on the table in this timid market even if they didn't pony up Bruce. That said, Santana might not want to commit to an extended stay in the GAB. A massive payday awaits him after next season. Got to figure the two NYC clubs, the two L.A. clubs, the Red Sox and the Cubs have got him within their sites.

So the real question becomes how much do you pay for a one-year rental of Johan Santana? If the Reds really want to go for it in 2008, if they really think that Santana guarantees them October baseball, then Bailey and Stubbs might be a fair price to pay. I know that's a lot of sacred cow to put on the altar, but you have to pay a price to summon the gods.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by M2

So the real question becomes how much do you pay for a one-year rental of Johan Santana? If the Reds really want to go for it in 2008, if they really think that Santana guarantees them October baseball, then Bailey and Stubbs might be a fair price to pay. I know that's a lot of sacred cow to put on the altar, but you have to pay a price to summon the gods.

Even if the Reds did acquire Santana, they would still have a lot of work to do. That is the problem, they are more than a few players from being a true WS contender.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

I'd say it's incredibly risky to act like a group of kids are true building blocks.

Disagree. It may be folly, but it's not risky for the Reds to hoard young talent and give it a chance at the major league level.

Johan Santana is the best pitcher alive. I'd gladly move Bailey, Stubbs and Encarnacion for him.

One year of Santana? Or, with a determination to spend a big-market price for him in FA? Either way, very gutsy. I think I'm more risk averse..... Yet, I agree that the Reds have the talent to acquire Santana, and Krivsky's Minnesota connection may well be able to make it happen at a price that's not obscene. Truly an intruiging possibility...

Keep in mind that Santana and Gonzo are friends -- Gonzo's ill son is named after Santana. Who knows, maybe ownership could find a way to pay Santana a lot of dough in a way that doesn't terminally hamstring the budget.....

Could they pay Santana and a FA centerfielder? Another reason to dump Dunn's contract now. Free up the dollars. It's time.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

I'd pay more if I could negotiate a deal and less if I couldn't. I thought my post made that clear. Sorry if it didn't.

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Could they pay Santana and a FA centerfielder? Another reason to dump Dunn's contract now. Free up the dollars. It's time.

Why does it have to be a free agent CF? One of the reasons why I started this thread was to investigate options beyond the FA class.

Anyway, if you're trading for Johan Santana for 2008 then you're probably going to want to give him some run support. In that case dumping the best offensive player on your team strikes me as a really bad idea. If it's all in for 2008 then Adam Dunn needs to stay put. You're going to want that .950 OPS. Plus, I'd be moving Jr. in addition to the gobs of cash already coming off the books. Take that cash, the new influx of league revenue (which has risen about $7M a club in recent years) and an increase in team revenue ($3M strikes me as a reasonable number, especially if a high profile guy like Santana was coming to town). That's a big chunk of money to have on hand. The team doesn't need to drop Dunn to have a bulge in its pockets.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by M2

IMO the Reds need some arms to act as a buffer between those kids and the majors for the next year.

The Reds need to operate under the assumption that NONE of those three will likely turn into top of the rotation starters, and move forward accordingly. All three of the young men jojo mentioned appear longshots to be league average starters, much less the top notch arms the Reds actually need.

And I think Arroyo will go postnuclear next season.

I think it's time to go big time ballsy and turn Bailey and Bruce into two MLB starters (hunt and peck for a couple more Burtons--Cueto?) and make a run at a pennant the next couple of years while Harang is still under contract.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by lollipopcurve

Disagree. It may be folly, but it's not risky for the Reds to hoard young talent and give it a chance at the major league level.

One year of Santana? Or, with a determination to spend a big-market price for him in FA? Either way, very gutsy. I think I'm more risk averse..... Yet, I agree that the Reds have the talent to acquire Santana, and Krivsky's Minnesota connection may well be able to make it happen at a price that's not obscene. Truly an intruiging possibility...

Keep in mind that Santana and Gonzo are friends -- Gonzo's ill son is named after Santana. Who knows, maybe ownership could find a way to pay Santana a lot of dough in a way that doesn't terminally hamstring the budget.....

Could they pay Santana and a FA centerfielder? Another reason to dump Dunn's contract now. Free up the dollars. It's time.

Unless Santana gets hurt, his production will do the opposite of hamstring the Reds: budget or product on the field.

Re: Looking to see who can be centerfield

Originally Posted by Falls City Beer

The Reds need to operate under the assumption that NONE of those three will likely turn into top of the rotation starters, and move forward accordingly. All three of the young men jojo mentioned appear longshots to be league average starters, much less the top notch arms the Reds actually need.

And I think Arroyo will go postnuclear next season.

I think it's time to go big time ballsy and turn Bailey and Bruce into two MLB starters (hunt and peck for a couple more Burtons--Cueto?) .

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