Hurricane Ike A Big Bopper Again

Tropical Storm Hanna at 5pm was located near Ocean Springs MD moving northeast at 30 mph. Because of the forward speed, I would think that inland flooding potential should be relatively minor, though some locations may receive excessive amounts. If you want a Tropical Storm Hanna Radar Loop, CLICK HERE. Just navigate from the default of the Ohio Valley to wherever you like, even down to street level. Click “animate” to loop.

Hurricane Ike Forecast Track 0906 5pm

Hurricane Ike:

Hurricane Ike is a small but very strong hurricane. It is moving around a ridge that has been taking it WSW for sometime now. It is expected to continue this

Hurricane Ike Intensity Probability Table 0906 5pm

track as several models have now come around back to where they were several days ago with Ike entering the Gulf of Mexico. Some have it crossing Cuba and re-emerging south of the Communist Island. Should that occur, then the weakening of the storm would be less dramatic than the official track. The National Hurricane Center has taken the track farther South and runs it right up the spine of Cuba. While the storm will have good forward momentum so that it doesn’t just sit over Cuba, that track would rip it up substantially. However, it appears that conditions will be favorable for the

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model 0906 18Z

storm once it gets back into the Gulf. After that, there are many solutions. Several models want to take it to SE Louisiana late in the week as a trof influences it north. Others want to turn it north more quickly toward the Florida Panhandle. The NOGAPS favors the SE Louisiana route, except it slows it down and has it sit

Hurricane Ike Spaghetti Model Intensity Graph 0906 18Z

for about 36 hours just offshore before heading inland. Another has it approach Louisiana then turn Northeast toward Mississippi. Its not totally out of the question, though unlikely, that the storm is either so far south or the trof so far north that Ike goes toward Texas. But with frontal activity really picking up in the lower 48, that seems rather remote. So, the bottom line is that both the track and intensity forecast is up in the air. The good news is that its tough for a high-caliber storm to maintain great intensity over a period of days and it would be unusual for a storm to get ripped up like the forecast suggests and then get back to cat 4 or 5 status. But, its not impossible. Stay tuned…many things can change over the next several days. They usually do.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED. THE PLANE
REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129
KT. ADDITIONALLY…CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE
NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA…THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT. WITH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK WARM…ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL
IKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ONCE OVER LAND…WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER…ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE
CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

IKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF
255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3
TO 4 DAYS…AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO…A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE
A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE’S EVENTUAL TRACK AT
THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS…WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE
WEAKNESS…WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE
BYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER
ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS…AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.