Rick Perry not expected to benefit from Cain’s collapse

WASHINGTON — The slow-motion derailment of the Cain Train has done little to get Rick Perry’s presidential candidacy back on track, GOP activists and political analysts said Thursday.

The Texas governor has continued to decline in the polls, failing to capitalize on a widening sex scandal that has cost recent frontrunner Herman Cain most of his support.

While Cain, former CEO of Godfather’s Pizza, has dropped from 25 percent to 14 percent over the past month in RealClearPolitics.com’s national poll average, Perry has slipped from 11 percent to 7 percent.

“In theory, Cain’s decline represents an opportunity for Perry to regain some of the supporters he lost over the past three months,” said Mark P. Jones, chairman of the political science department at Rice University. “However, I very much doubt that Perry is in a position to take advantage of the decline of Cain. He is firmly rooted in the third tier of Republican presidential candidates.”

‘Too late’ for Perry

The latest national poll, a Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday, showed former House Speaker Newt Gingrich far ahead of the rest of the field with 38 percent to 17 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Cain slipped into a third-place tie with Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 8 percent, followed by Perry, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum at 4 percent.

Six recent polls by Public Policy Polling found that, on average, 12 percent of recent Cain supporters call Perry their second choice. Their favorite is Gingrich: 37 percent of Cain-iacs say they’d back the former House speaker if Cain were out of the race.

“If Herman Cain’s support fades to zero in the next few weeks, whether because he drops out or because people abandon him because of all his issues, Newt Gingrich is going to keep on climbing,” said PPP president Tom Jensen. “Gingrich’s fall may come … but in the short term, Cain’s issues should mean Gingrich just keeps on gaining.”

“It’s too late for Perry,” said Cullen, a communications consultant. “He’s just not seen as a credible option for voters looking for a new home. Even those who want to like Perry based on his positions or his Texas record can’t do it because he’s been such an incompetent candidate.”

To try to change that dynamic, Perry’s campaign is sending hundreds of Texans to Iowa in coming weeks to try to reinforce his message of job creation and smaller government. The so-called “Perry Posse” is expected to include elected officials such as Attorney General Greg Abbott and Comptroller Susan Combs.

Perry, who taped an appearance on NBC’s Tonight show Thursday, discounted the latest polls, saying he’s poised for a rebound.

“There is a poll every week,” he told Fox News host Megyn Kelly. “There’s been, I think, four frontrunners in this campaign. … Everyone on that stage except myself is either an establishment individual or an insider, and that’s what Americans are looking for, is an outsider. And I’m the only outsider on that stage that’s willing to shake up Washington, D.C., in a big way.”

Gaffes have hurt

But analysts say that Perry’s strong conservative message has been obscured by a misfiring campaign dominated by weak debate performances and gaffes.

“Perry has reached his peak and is losing ground,” said Florida State University politics professor Robert Crew Jr. “I’m not sure he’s going to pick up anyone’s votes.”

Still, Tim Hagle, a political scientist at the University of Iowa, says it’s too early to count Perry out in a volatile and unpredictable election season.

“I think there is certainly a possibility (of a comeback),” he said, “but it’s going to be an uphill climb. People like him. The concern now is whether he has what it takes (to be president).

“At a minimum, that positions him to take advantage if Gingrich fades.”