Will it go Round in Circles?

You must enter the characters with black color that stand out from the other characters

The eternal hurricane season of 2005 has continued to hang on for dear life the past three or four days in spite of ongoing forecasts from the National Hurricane Center that indicate the reduction of Epsilon to a remnant low. In spite of external factors that point strongly in that direction (significant vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures), the storm has maintained hurricane status and continues to carry maximum sustained winds of 80 mph today as it turnsd southeastward, with the potential for making at least a partial loop back toward the southwest and maybe west over the next few days. Once again, it is forecast to fall to tropical storm strength in a day or so, and to drop off to a remnant low 2 to 3 days out. We'll see if it can cling to life once again.

More locally, we've had a challenging forecast over the past two to three days, with one of those classic Carolina scenarios that involves enough cold air nearby to be concerned about wintry precipitation, but enough variation among computer model projections regarding the strength, speed and direction of movement of a low pressure wave that the transition area between rather heavy rain and more wintry weather has wavered northwest and southeast to a significant degree. For a while yesterday it appeared we had a pretty good chance right into the Triangle area to see at least some pockets of sleet and snow, and maybe a burst or two enough to whiten the ground. However, later runs have increased the amount of warm air in a layer from around three to eight thousand feet above the ground to the point where it appears any snow or sleet around Raleigh would be unlikely, and confined to a short time frame very late this afternoon or evening if it does manage to occur. By that time, most models indicate drier air invading the region at mid levels of the atmosphere, including the layer where the primary groth of snow crystals is supported, so that even as we turn plenty cold for snow all that may remain is some sprinkles or drizzle, maybe a patch or two of sleet. In addition, accumulations, even a little north and west of the Triangle where a transition is somewhat more likey before drying begins, should be limited in part due to soil temperatures that remain in the mid 40s to around 50, especially in the wake of yesterday's big warmup (68 for a high at RDU).

Regardless of how the brush with wintry weather turns out, we can be happy for another very substantial dose of "anti-drought medicine," in the form of what should total up to be around 1-2 inches of rain for much of the region, the third time in a row we've kicked off a week with a nice widespread moderate to heavy rain on Monday and/or Tuesday.

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a...Read More

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a big drop in dew points heading into the weekend. along with high temperatures in the 70s Saturday and Sunday - should seem a lot more like Fall!

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a...Read More

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a big drop in dew points heading into the weekend. along with high temperatures in the 70s Saturday and Sunday - should seem a lot more like Fall!

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a...Read More

By late September standards, it's a little warm and humid lately and will be more so as temperatures rise to near 90 Wednesday and Thursday. However, a front due in late Thursday or early Friday should bring a big drop in dew points heading into the weekend. along with high temperatures in the 70s Saturday and Sunday - should seem a lot more like Fall!

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny...Read More

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny periods. It will also turn breezy, with a few isolated sprinkles or light showers possible. Better rain chances with Maria will likely be confined to the area around the sounds and Outer Banks.

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny...Read More

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny periods. It will also turn breezy, with a few isolated sprinkles or light showers possible. Better rain chances with Maria will likely be confined to the area around the sounds and Outer Banks.

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny...Read More

A shallow layer of low clouds covers much of eastern NC this morning, as seen here at our Solar Farm. As we head through the day, we may see a few breaks in the clouds and perhaps a couple of partly sunny periods. It will also turn breezy, with a few isolated sprinkles or light showers possible. Better rain chances with Maria will likely be confined to the area around the sounds and Outer Banks.

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea...Read More

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea late tomorrow into early Thursday.

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea...Read More

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea late tomorrow into early Thursday.

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea...Read More

The morning update on Maria's track from the National Hurricane Center continues to show the storm passing east of our state today into tomorrow, weakening a bit to tropical storm status, then turning out to sea late tomorrow into early Thursday.

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape...Read More

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape...Read More

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape...Read More

New update on Maria's position and intensity has lowered the maxiimum sustained winds to 75 mph.It continues to drift northward at about 7 mph, with the center located roughly 335 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras.

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is...Read More

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is passing by close enough that a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from around Cape Lookout up to Duck.

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is...Read More

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is passing by close enough that a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from around Cape Lookout up to Duck.

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is...Read More

The new track for Maria this Monday morning edges a little east of yesterday's, and also shows a bit faster weakening of the storm as it passes offshore of our state later Tuesday through Wednesday night. It is passing by close enough that a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from around Cape Lookout up to Duck.

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees...Read More

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees compared to the weekend.

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees...Read More

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees compared to the weekend.

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees...Read More

We'll see some periods of cloudiness today, but also some brighter skies at times, and should start the week with dry weather. Temperatures remain on the warm side of normal, but down by aaround 2-3 degrees compared to the weekend.

JUST IN: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of NC from Surf City northward to the Virgina border. A storm surge watch has been issued for the cost of NC from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

JUST IN: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of NC from Surf City northward to the Virgina border. A storm surge watch has been issued for the cost of NC from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

JUST IN: A tropical storm watch has been issued for the coast of NC from Surf City northward to the Virgina border. A storm surge watch has been issued for the cost of NC from Cape Lookout northward to Duck.

Some info on an ISS transit that starts this evening low in the SW sky. The station will rise to 73 degrees above the WNW horizon after 3 minutes, then disappear from view as it passes into Earth's shadow.

Some info on an ISS transit that starts this evening low in the SW sky. The station will rise to 73 degrees above the WNW horizon after 3 minutes, then disappear from view as it passes into Earth's shadow.

Some info on an ISS transit that starts this evening low in the SW sky. The station will rise to 73 degrees above the WNW horizon after 3 minutes, then disappear from view as it passes into Earth's shadow.

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's...Read More

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's still a chance of tropical storm force winds for the Outer Banks and the vicinity of the sounds, most likely in the later Tuesday to early Thursday time frame. There are no watches in place yet, but that could change later today or tonight.

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's...Read More

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's still a chance of tropical storm force winds for the Outer Banks and the vicinity of the sounds, most likely in the later Tuesday to early Thursday time frame. There are no watches in place yet, but that could change later today or tonight.

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's...Read More

Midday update for Maria's path doesn't show much change from the early morning projection. It's a fairly large and slow-moving storm, so even if the center locations here end up reasonably accurate, there's still a chance of tropical storm force winds for the Outer Banks and the vicinity of the sounds, most likely in the later Tuesday to early Thursday time frame. There are no watches in place yet, but that could change later today or tonight.

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity...Read More

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity could also make it easier for some high altitude planes to leave contrails behind at times.

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity...Read More

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity could also make it easier for some high altitude planes to leave contrails behind at times.

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity...Read More

We should see a good deal of blue sky and sunshine today, but some upper level moisture in the outflow from Maria is also bringing some periods with streaky high cirrus clouds. The added upper-level humidity could also make it easier for some high altitude planes to leave contrails behind at times.

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70%...Read More

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70% chance that the location of the storm center remains within that "fan," so there remains an outside chance for a landfall over eastern NC. Be sure to monitor Maria for any changes in the coming days.

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70%...Read More

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70% chance that the location of the storm center remains within that "fan," so there remains an outside chance for a landfall over eastern NC. Be sure to monitor Maria for any changes in the coming days.

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70%...Read More

The latest track for Maria shows it loitering off our coast from later Tuesday through early Thursday before being pushed east by an approaching frontal system. The shaded area corresponds to about a 60-70% chance that the location of the storm center remains within that "fan," so there remains an outside chance for a landfall over eastern NC. Be sure to monitor Maria for any changes in the coming days.

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for...Read More

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for nice sunrise and sunset scenes, with a little luck and good timing.

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for...Read More

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for nice sunrise and sunset scenes, with a little luck and good timing.

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for...Read More

We should see a few more high cirrus clouds at times today than yesterday, but otherwise weak high pressure should keep us bright and warmer than normal as we wrap up the weekend. The high clouds could make for nice sunrise and sunset scenes, with a little luck and good timing.

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts...Read More

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts of the NC coast Sunday...

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts...Read More

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts of the NC coast Sunday...

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts...Read More

Hurricane Maria will have impacts along the NC coast. Here's a look at the potential impacts late Tuesday into Thursday. The National Hurricane Center MIGHT issue a tropical storm or hurricane watch along parts of the NC coast Sunday...