15 Chapter 1. The radiant past or the impasses of demographic archaism?

18 Chapter 2. Medieval mortality 18 Long lasting backwardness 2. 20 Passivity in the face of death 2. 24 Beginning of the change 2. 29 Chapter 3. Inefficient fertility 29 Russian fertility on the eve of the demographic transition 3. 30 Many children or many births?

3. 32 Were big families desired?

3. 38 Birth control: the forbidden practice 3. 44 Chapter 4. The family in crisis Contens 44 The large and small family: antagonism or symbiosis?

4. 50 Nuclear family in search of the sovereignty 4. 58 Revolt on the family ship 4. 62 Chapter 5. Inevitability of change Part 2 Modernization of marriage and family life 67 Chapter 6. From rural to urban family 67 Family in the new social environment 6. 69 Nuclearization of the family, 6. change in family size and composition 72 New essence of marriage 6. 76 Contradictions of the Soviet way 6. of the family modernization 96 Chapter 7. Varying parameters of matrimonial behavior 96 Registered and unregistered unions 7. 107 Age at first marriage 7. 127 Dissolution of marriage 7. 134 Remarriage 7. 137 Chapter 8. The second demographic transition and the future of marriage and family 137 The essence of the second demographic transition 8. 139 The changing age pattern of fertility and nuptuality 8. Part 3 Modernization of fertility 149 Chapter 9. What is the modernization of fertility?

153 Chapter 10. The completed fertility of real and synthetic female cohorts 153 A hundred years of fertility decline 10. 159 The first stage of the rapid decline 10. (1878–1890 female birth cohorts) 160 The second stage of the rapid decline 10. (1900–1920 female birth cohorts) 163 Why did Russia have no baby boom?

10. 169 The stage of slowing decline and stabilization 10. (1921–1960 female birth cohorts) 173 The most recent stage of fertility decline 10. (1965–1970 female birth cohorts) 176 Chapter 11. Fertility by birth order 176 From old to new distribution 11. of women by number of children ever born 179 The dynamics of parity progression ratios 11. 184 Chapter 12. Age of childbearing 184 Change in mean age of childbearing in real cohorts 12. 185 Change in mean age of childbearing in synthetic cohorts 12. 189 Parity specific mean age of mothers 12. 191 Decrease in the interval 12. Contens between marriage and the first birth 195 Chapter 13. Russia between abortion and family planning 195 Reduction of family size:

13. Malthusian and Neo Malthusian strategy 197 Pre revolutionary Russia: persistence of an ancient taboo 13. 199 Induced abortion: swinging legislation 13. and the tendency of mass behavior 225 The contraceptive revolution which didn’t occur 13. 235 Reproductive rights, birth control and fertility 13. 247 Chapter 14. The second demographic transition and the future of fertility Part 4 Modernization of mortality 257 Chapter 15. Epidemiological transition 257 The essence of the epidemiological transition 15. and its incompleteness in Russia 259 The myths and the realities of the Soviet public health system 15. 270 Chapter 16. The evolution of mortality and life expectancy 270 Life expectancy: 1900– 16. 273 Age specific features of the mortality evolution 16. 279 Specific features of the infant mortality evolution 16. 289 Cohort mortality of Russians 16. 293 What happened in the 1980 s – 1990 s 16. 297 Differential mortality 16. 310 Healthy life expectancy 16. 313 Chapter 17. The causes of death 313 Present Russian model of mortality by causes of death 17. 323 Distribution of death by main classes of causes of death:

17. dynamics since 327 Mortality from main classes of causes of death 17. 382 Chapter 18. Mortality in Russia: uncompleted modernization Part 5 Centenary of the demographic ravage of Russia Chapter 19. Demographic catastrophes of the 20th century 400 From the beginning of World War I to the Census 19. 406 From the ‘Great Turn’ to Stalin’s death 19. 442 Estimation of the losses due to demographic catastrophes 19. The demographic crisis of the second half of the 20th century 444 19. Estimation of the total losses during the 20th century 446 19. 448 Chapter 20. Demographic knowledge:

information or disinformation?

448 The Twenties – the beginning and the end 20. of the “golden age” of Soviet demography 451 The crackdown 20. 461 Disinformation during the period of stagnation 20. 466 Post soviet expectations that failed 20. Part 6 What coast we have landed on?

Contens 471 Chapter 21. A new regime of the population replacement 471 Increase in efficient fertility of generations 21. 475 Replacement of the synthetic cohorts 21. 478 Replacement of the real cohorts 21. 484 The challenge of below replacement reproduction 21. 488 New age composition 21. 491 Depopulation 21. 498 Chapter 22. The next hundred years 498 Is it possible to predict a hundred years ahead?

22. 499 The projection’s scenarios 22. 503 The demographic alternatives for Russia 22. 506 Changing age pyramid 22. The demographic challenges of the 21st century 516 22. 533 Conclusion. To advance or to go back?

551 Annex 553 References 557 Glossary 591 List of abbreviations 592 Name index 601 Summary Summary Demographic Modernization in Russia, 1900–2000 summarizes the results of the study of demographic transition in Russia in 20th century. This transition is less than for hundred years brought about a radical change in the most im portant aspects of a private and public life of Russians, their matrimonial, procreative, sexual, family, health related, and migratory behavior. The book highlights an extremely contradictory nature of the Soviet pattern of demo graphic modernization and its consequences. The authors present statistical estimations, not published earlier, concerning the nuptiality, fertility, morta lity, and replacement of the generations of Russia in the twentieth century;

the evaluation of Russian population losses due to the social cataclysms and crises of the past century;

and the population forecast until 2100.

The book comprises six parts. The first part, ‘From what coast have we sailed away?’ describes the initial demographic conditions in Russia at the be ginning of the twentieth century: the predominance of rural peasant popula tion and traditional family relations, a patriarchal family, as well as high ferti lity and mortality.

The three next parts provide an analysis of the renewal of the whole sy stem of demographic relations as an integral part of the modernization of Summary Russian society.

The second part deals with the evolution of family and marriage. The third part focuses on the demographic transition in fertility. The fourth part discusses the epidemiological transition, i.e. the demographic transition in mortality. In each case the qualitative changes in the structure of the demo graphic evolution determinants, as well as in demographic behavior and its motivation are analyzed. At the same time, the evolution of the basic demo graphic indicators for both synthetic and, what is new and especially impor tant, for real cohorts of Russians are examined.

While in the parts 2, 3, and 4 the evolutionary aspects of modernization, common to all countries undergoing the demographic transition, are investi gated, the fifth part entitled ‘The Centenary of the Demographic Ravage of Russia’ is devoted to the catastrophic component of the demographic history of Russia. It describes how a series of social and demographic catastrophes in the first half of the twentieth century perverted the normal course of evolutio nary changes and led to enormous population losses. The authors give esti mate of these losses, and reflect on the fate of Russian demography, whose development was intentionally hindered to conceal the real state of affairs.

Finally the sixth part, ‘What coast we have landed on?’ summarizes the development of Russian population over the last hundred years. Positive, ne gative, and controversial results of the demographic modernization are dis cussed. The study reveals that this modernization is not yet completed in Rus sia. An analytical population projection for the twenty first century is given, and the main demographic challenges which Russia has to face in the course of the current century are outlined.