Since 6:30 a.m., June 12, when I first read the breaking story by Marcus Stern of Copley News Service about a suspicious real-estate deal on the Del Mar border, I've been handicapping.

Like an old racing tout with binoculars around his neck, I've been studying the form for potential candidates to replace Randall Harold Cunningham as the representative for the 50th District.

Frankly, it's become something of an obsession, trying to grasp the speed and stamina of a frustratingly fluid field.

As Republican candidates line up for the upcoming special election – and others, like Assemblyman Mark Wyland and Supervisor Pam Slater-Price, coyly ponder whether to run or scratch – it occurs to me that, Wilde as it sounds, no one has taken notice of the importance of being Earnest.

Richard Earnest.

In my view, Earnest, a self-described moderate Republican armed with famous football pads, Navy wings and high-tech business chops, might have been the only Republican who conceivably could have beaten Cunningham before the bribery revelations.

Granted, Earnest's voter base, as it stands today, is tiny and elite. However, as an eight-year councilman (and twice mayor) in Del Mar, Earnest consistently scored points for his old-school courtesy, energy and willingness to consider all sides of a problem.

In short, his starched shirt was never stuffed.

In a community divided between grays (pro-growth business) and greens (environmentalists), he tried to find the right balance.

"I'm a gray in my head," he told a reporter once. "And a green in my heart."

The paradox defines the man.

Here's why I'm thinking that Earnest could wind up as the brightest dark horse on a lightning fast track.

To start, biography.

Born in 1942, he grew up in blue-collar Pittsburgh. His father was a steelworker intent upon seeing his son be the first in his family to get a college education.

Though undersized at 165 pounds (he appears about the same weight today), Earnest was a standout in baseball and football. He was offered scholarships to smaller Ivy League schools but opted for an appointment to the Naval Academy in 1960.

As expected, he starred in football, playing on the great Navy teams led by Heisman Award-winning quarterback Roger Staubach. One of Earnest's most precious memories is playing his last game, the 1964 national championship against Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Despite a recently broken arm, he intercepted a pass in the losing effort.

After graduation, Earnest went on to fly more than 300 combat missions over Vietnam. His flight instructor was John McCain. Though they served in the same squadron, Earnest never ran into Cunningham.

After three tours in Vietnam and missing, through technicalities, the chance to become an astronaut, Earnest left the Navy in 1971.

It was a tough transition to civilian life, he admitted.

"No counselors back then," he said. "We had to figure it out."

His high-school sweetheart wife (years later he would divorce and marry Jackee, his wife of 20 years) was opposed to the war, which confused Earnest, challenged him.

His proudest accomplishment, Earnest recently told his adult daughter, was making the transition from a "hair on fire" fighter pilot to a civilian, a parent, a family man, "and not an arrogant SOB."

Always solid in math and science, he flew into a brand-new industry – computers. A natural competitor, he excelled at selling companies time on computers. After leaving San Diego County in 1969, he climbed corporate ladders in St. Louis, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Chicago, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., finally returning in 1989.

By then, he'd built a reputation as a dynamic CEO who could turn struggling companies around. Among several high-stakes ventures, he served as the CEO of Peregrine Systems (long before the legal troubles, he reminded).

Today, among other business interests, he serves on a board with Orson Swindle, former commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission and POW cell mate of McCain in the Hanoi Hilton.

Earnest's political problem is that he's not known outside Del Mar. It's going to take an expensive media blitz to make him the moderate alternative to the thundering herd of Republican conservatives on the ballot.

In his favor is money. He'll be calling on people "I've made money for," he said. He'll draw upon his own wealth, but he dislikes self-funded campaigns. He doesn't blink when I throw out the million-dollar goal.

"I'll match that," he promised.

But he's acutely aware that he needs what money often can't buy: sizzle. He's banking on Sen. McCain, his old instructor and political role model, to take a recent cue from Swindle and come to North County to help his student catch a flight to Washington. (Staubach's star power is a certainty, Earnest said.)

For the rest of December, Earnest will work with his team to hone his positions and raise money. He'll announce in early January for a special election that will take place sometime between February and April, depending upon Gov. Schwarzenegger's timetable.

It's too early to pick a favorite to break away from the GOP pack and earn a match race against Francine Busby, the well-positioned Democrat who's trying to buck the odds and win a safe Republican district.