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Saturday, 29 August 2015

There is no denying that the May 2015 general election was a bad one for the Liberal Democrats, reduced to just 8 seats - their worst result since June 1970.

It is likely that the May 2020 general election will be for smaller House of Commons, with just 600 MPs, and - as far as I am aware - the Government's intention is for these to be the ones proposed in 2013.

If these are used, then what is the impact on the Liberal Democrats?

Fortunately, Electoral Calculus has a set of calculated ward-by-ward breakdowns of general election votes. General election results are not announced at a ward level, but using local election results allows one to make a reasonable calculated breakdown at ward level.

From these we can then build up notional results - i.e. what the result would have been if an election had been held on a different set of boundaries. It is important to emphasise that a notional result looks back to a previous election, and is not a prediction of a future election. People have a habit of ignoring this, so you end up with criticism along the lines of "Clearly he has not taken into account that Trumptonshire West changed hands at that by-election. PMSL" or "He puts the Elvis Loves Pets party winning Camberwick Green & East Trumptonshire - he does know that their support has fallen in the last opinion poll, does he?"

The more detailed report gives the ward breakdown, and using this and the Electoral Calculus data, we can work out notional results:

Carshalton & Coulsdon

Conservative - 21,062 (37.00%)

Liberal Democrat - 16,275 (28.59%)

Labour - 9,569 (16.81%)

UK Independence Party - 7,757 (13.63%)

Green - 2,016 (3.54%)

Others - 250 (0.44%)

Croydon South

Conservative - 32,661 (52.43%)

Labour - 17,059 (27.39%)

UK Independence Party - 5,879 (9.44%)

Liberal Democrat - 4,344 (6.97%)

Green - 2,087 (3.35%)

Others - 261 (0.42%)

Carshalton & Wallington loses one Borough of Sutton ward (Beddington South) to the revised Croydon South, while in return picking up two Borough of Croydon wards (Coulsdon East and Coulsdon West) from that constituency - hence the change in name. The Coulsdon wards are ones where the Conservatives (along with second-placed Labour) are well ahead of the Liberal Democrats and it is their arrival that flips Brake's seat to the Conservatives.

Neither of these represent a good choice for Mulholland - in addition, he could face sitting MPs in either. Otley would be the logical seat for Stuart Andrew, Conservative MP for Pudsey, and Leeds North represents the better choice for Reeves to contest as it leaves the slightly-less-safe-for-Labour Leeds West, Pudsey & Tong free for Judith Cummins, current Labour MP for Bradford South, who sees her current seat hacked apart.

Remaining in the Yorkshire & Humberside region, we come to Sheffield Hallam, held by the former Lord President of the Council, Nick Clegg. 80.76% of his seat joins with 34.09% of Penistone & Stocksbridge to form Sheffield Hallam & Penistone, while the remaining 19.24% joins 80.25% of Sheffield Heeley and 18.58% of Sheffield Central to form a revised Sheffield Heeley.

Using the ward listing as before, we can calculate notional results:

Sheffield Hallam & Penistone

Labour - 22,755 (38.08%)

Liberal Democrat - 17,634 (29.51%)

Conservative - 9,491 (15.88%)

UK Independence Party - 7,717 (12.92%)

Green - 1,562 (2.61%)

Others - 591 (0.99%)

Sheffield Heeley

Labour - 22,142 (42.78%)

Liberal Democrat - 10,788 (20.84%)

Conservative - 8,748 (16.90%)

UK Independence Party - 6,125 (11.83%)

Green - 3,530 (6.82%)

Others - 423 (0.82%)

Like Mulholland and Brake, Clegg has no notional Liberal Democrat seat to go for. His strongest ward (Dore & Totley) is transferred to Sheffield Heeley, where in May, the interesting battle was that between the Conservatives and UK Independence Party for second place (UKIP came second, but their strongest ward - Richmond - moves to a redrawn Sheffield South East). In return, picking up the City of Sheffield ward of Stocksbridge & Upper Don and the Borough of Barnsley ward of Penistone West - both from Penistone & Stocksbridge - helps Labour and (to a lesser extent) the Conservatives.

Another problem for Clegg will be that South Yorkshire is a strongly Labour area, and with a reduction in seats, there will be a bit of musical chairs among Labour MPs. It seems logical that Angela Smith, the long-serving MP for Penistone & Stocksbridge, would stand in Sheffield Hallam & Penistone, freeing up Sheffield North & Dodworth for Harry Harpham, Labour MP for Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough.

From the detailed ward listing we see that the District of North Norfolk wards that are transferred to Norfolk Coastal are Stalham & Sutton; Waterside and Waxham - which are Liberal Democrat-leaning, where they add nothing to the historic battle between the Conservatives and Labour in that seat, while the District of North Norfolk wards that are transferred from Broadland (Astley; Lancaster North; Lancaster South; The Raynhams; Walsingham and Wensum) are strongly Conservative.

Currently the District of South Lakeland ward of Coniston & Crake Valley is split between Westmorland & Lonsdale and Barrow & Furness - the proposed boundary changes bring it all under Westmorland & Lonsdale. The District of Eden wards of Appleby (Appleby); Appleby (Bongate); Brough; Kirkby Stephen; Orton with Tebay; Ravenstonedale and Warcop are transferred from Penrith & the Border.