Friday could be bring a commanding United States win, leaving Jurgen Klinsmann’s and Co. to go bounding into Kansas City for next week’s group play finale needing nothing more than a draw to secure passage into final round World Cup qualifying.

Most American soccer fans would like to see the United States do just that, ride roughshod over the tiny nations of Central American and the Caribbean, establishing regional dominance as more or less a practice exercise en route to bigger and better at the World Cup finals.

But history suggests otherwise. Whether it’s down to an ongoing U.S. failure to capitalize on the enormous advantages in resources, or whether it’s the far more vague province of “is what it is,” these regional lands are rarely pushovers when playing at home.

And that’s not just when playing the United States:

Let’s look quickly at Antigua and Barbuda’s other home games this round:

Guatemala did escape Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in September with all three points, but it was awfully close. Carlos Ruiz scored in the 25th minute, and it took a solid night of work from visiting goalkeeper Ricardo Jerez to hold the score to 1-0.

Back in June, Jamaica could do no better than a scoreless draw in Antigua. This is where the Antiguan team’s cohesiveness as a group, not just a collection of individuals – most of the regulars play together in the U.S. third-tier league (USL Pro) – greatly assists the effort. They are far more organized than most Caribbean sides, not committing too many players into the attack, remaining in the best places for recovery once the ball is lost, and generally managing the game fairly well. The United States saw as much in only winning by two goals (3-1) earlier this year in Tampa Bay.

So, two matches so far at the cricket ground in Antigua have produced just one goal.

My expectation: a 2-0 United States win. (Followed by a predictable amount of subsequent teeth gnashing that it couldn’t have been more.)

With the first section labelled “basically, free money” for the picks I think are dead certs. The section labelled “don’t touch this” means if you’re betting I advise you to stay clear, while the “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” section are the longshots. If it is better odds you are after, those are the picks to go for.

Watford host Everton on Saturday (7:30 a.m. ET live NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) at Vicarage Road to kick things off with both teams out of form and desperate for a win.

Then Arsenal welcome Stoke City to the Emirates Stadium (10 a.m. ET live NBCSN andonline via NBC Sports.com) as Arsene Wenger‘s side look to stretch their unbeaten run to 14 games in the Premier League against a resurgent Potters outfit.

As the same time struggling Swansea City and Sunderland clash (10 a.m. ET live CNBC and online via NBC Sports.com) in a massive relegation battle at the Liberty Stadium. Can Bob Bradley get a big win?

Rounding things off on Saturday we have a big game for two teams in contrasting situations as Leicester City host Manchester City (12:30 p.m. ET live NBC and online via NBC Sports.com) at the King Power Stadium with Claudio Ranieri‘s side in a relegation battle. As for Pep Guardiola and City, they haven’t had it all their own way recently but are just four points off top spot.

On Sunday league-leader Chelsea host West Brom (7 a.m. ET live NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) with Antonio Conte‘s boys aiming to make it eight-straight wins in the Premier League but the in-form Baggies stand in the way. Then Manchester United and Tottenham collide at Old Trafford (9:15 a.m. ET live on NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) in one of the games of the weekend as both teams still harbor title aspirations but look more likely to simply challenge for the top four this season.

To round Week 15 off Liverpool welcome struggling West Ham to Anfield (11:30 a.m. ET live NBCSN and online via NBC Sports.com) with Jurgen Klopp‘s men aiming to get over their shocking defeat at Bournemouth, while Slaven Bilic‘s Hammers will take anything they can get from this trip.

If you’re looking for full-event replays of Premier League games, you can find them here. They are available soon after the final whistle, but rights limit us to a certain number each week. Looking for game highlights? Try this. Here’s your full TV schedule for the coming days. Enjoy.