Monday, November 26, 2012

It didn't work. That's the simple and clear verdict of yesterday's elections for Artur Mas and Convergència i Unió (CiU). The gamble that they could capture absolute power in the Catalan parliament has backfired in a spectacular way that few expected. Whilst the last opinion polls suggested Mas might not reach the objective of an overall majority, I don't think any polls predicted that CiU would lose ground in the way that they have. It seems evident that there has been a significant shift of votes from CiU to Esquerra Republican (ERC). So one of the main consequences of this gamble by Mas has been to restore the fortunes of his main rival for the nationalist vote. That should have a few people inside his own party sharpening their knives.

Despite the setback, CiU are still very much the dominant force in Catalan politics. If anyone believes that the shift in support from CiU to Esquerra represents some sort of major turning point in nationalist voting patterns then I suggest they click on the results for 2006 in the results widget in my previous post. Esquerra have been here before, they've even done better than this before. The general assumption this morning seems to be that CiU and ERC will unite in a grand coalition, as between them they command a majority in parliament. This is not, it needs to be pointed out, the same as a majority of the votes cast. Between them the two parties can claim just over 44% support. Ironically, the alliance last time around between CiU and their good friends from the Partido Popular could claim greater electoral legitimacy, at least they made it to 50%.

The solution of a nationalist coalition might appear to be obvious but it's not so simple. Esquerra have never wanted to be a junior coalition partner to CiU, and that option is full of danger for them. There is, of course, the compensation that they get back their offices and official cars and all the trappings of power which they showed such a liking for with the 'tripartit' government a few years back. Unfortunately for them it didn't go down so well with their voters. Also, an agreement with Mas means they have to publicly line up behind setting the Mossos d'Esquadra and their rubber bullets onto anyone who doesn't like their health service being dismantled. There isn't that much remaining of the 'Esquerra' part in ERC but they also have to keep an eye out for emerging rivals, look at the rise of the CUP in yesterday's election.

In return for keeping Mas in power, ERC will need something to show for it and the obvious trophy is paving the way for an independence vote. The problem is, following yesterday's results, that the popular enthusiasm for such a move seems to have been wildly exaggerated. Nor is it really valid to spin the result by confusing an apparently pro-referendum majority with a pro-independence one. Despite what some appear to think, being in favour of the 'right to decide' yet against independence is both a coherent and an impeccably democratic viewpoint. It's the position I hold, for example, concerning Scottish independence. Even though I'm entitled to the passport if Salmond gets his way.

It's also important to remember, when considering the balance of forces, that regional elections tend to overstate the nationalist vote in Cataluña, with a reverse effect being seen in national Spanish elections. Nationalists are more motivated by the issues of Catalan government than Spanish. That seems to have changed a bit this time, there has been a greater mobilisation of anti-independence voters. The unionist party Ciutadans have been regarded as something of a joke, but they have tripled their representation in the new parliament. The PP also did well, by their own standards, although they are still a minor party in Catalan politics. After a build up that had almost everyone expecting a major shift towards pro-independence sentiment, a closer examination of the results reveals a small reverse in nationalist support.

The Catalan socialists of the PSC must be relieved, not because they did well but because it could have been worse and because of all the attention focused on Mas. The PSC should be the big hitter of the national Spanish parties in Catalan elections, and in the end they've finished in third place just ahead of the PP. That's an awful result, but I still believe it has as much to do with national issues as with local ones. It fits the pattern of dismal results in other regions for the PSOE. It's hard to say whether they have lost votes to Ciutadans and the harder line anti-separatist positions. Iniciativa per Catalunya, which would expect to pick up votes on the left from disillusionment with the PSC, have gained three seats which isn't bad but it doesn't suggest great things to come either.

There are all sorts of lessons to be drawn from these elections, but perhaps its the Catalan left that really needs to be thinking hard about where it is going. Seeing every issue through the prism of the national question isn't offering any solutions to those who need them as the crisis continues to bite hard. The idea that the unemployed of Badalona have more in common with Artur Mas and company than they do with the unemployed of Alcobendas looks patently absurd. As does pretending that the rest of Spain lives a leisurely life of ease and comfort at Catalan expense. Hard times are still ahead, and holding hands with Artur won't do anything to help those who are bearing the brunt of the crisis.

16 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Graeme,

Don't forget that the PSC probably lost some votes to ERC as well. Are these lost forever? Or might they come back once the independence issue has gone cold (if it ever does)?

An awful lot depends on Rajoy. If he would extend a helping hand to CiU now he could solve the matter. But we know Mariano. His proclivity is not to do anything at all and leave things lying around until they (presumably) rot. Only, it might not work out like this time.

And yet another thought: at a time when Catalunya is trying to re-establish credibilty with the financial markets (not trivial), I don't think the toffs and the spivs will look kindly on an alliance with ERC. The more I think of it the harder it is to believe Mas will be in his post for long.

I guess that's possible Moscow, ERC's rise is greater than Convergència's fall but there is also a 10% increase in participation to take into account. You need to be an expert in voting patterns to make that call. The history of ERC's highs and lows suggests that their voter loyalty is not that strong.

In defence of Mariano, and I'm really trying hard not to laugh too much as I write those words (can hardly type), things have been much calmer for Spain in general since he dedicated himself full time to being on holiday or electoral campaigning. I saw an allegedly serious report the other day claiming that his response to the highest point of the prima de riesgo crisis was to read Marca. I mean you can't make it up! More seriously, what would he do to help CiU that doesn't involve big wads of cash?

Who's afraid of the big bad ERC? I don't think Esquerra are going to frighten the markets so much. Their bogeyman effect only ever really worked with small children and elderly Franquistas in certain barrios of Madrid.

I'm not sure that Rajoy's "En mi vida he visto una operación política tan ruinosa" counts as a conciliatory gesture? Above all coming from a man that lost two general elections. He's beginning to make Aznar look like a master of the fine arts of diplomacy, but let's be kind for once and assume he's playing to the gallery.

Not quite sure what you're getting at here anon. Are you suggesting that if the Catalans bought lots of Brazilian sugar and turned most of their bars into cake shops like the Portuguese have then the Spanish would say "let's leave them to it"?

I see El Mundo has picked up on my comment yesterday on the difficulty Mas will have in forming an alliance with ERC when the markets are watching. Last time when ERC was in power the markets were not watching as intently.

Everybody keeps writing that the guy who fronts ERC is a likeable - not pretty to look at but likeable - chap. Only physically he looks like the spitting image of that other guy who heads the BNP in England (forgot his name) but with a beard.

El Mundo? You mean the paper that thinks it "won" the Catalan elections? As has been said in other circumstances, they would say that wouldn't they?

I don't think it's very fair anyway to compare Esquerra's leader to an ugly British fascist. You remember those cartoons where a character would have a good angel on one shoulder and a little devil on the other? To solve some ethical dilemma. That's how I see Esquerra now. The little devil is saying "Hey, you can forget all that left wing baggage for the moment in return for a referendum commitment. Have you looked at the chair in this nice big office? That's real leather you know, none of your Spanish PVC shit. Your official car is always waiting for you downstairs. How many cousins have you got that would like a job?". The little angel on the other shoulder is getting flustered and saying "Don't listen to him, it's all a trick and everyone will end up blaming you for closing the hospitals!".

I was just making referrence to the physical resemblance...only that .....honestly.

Could you imagine CiU reversing their vigourously conservative fiscal and economic policy for the sake of a "soberanista" alliance with ERC? I can picture Duran reaching out for his sleeping pills (and a bit of Prozac too).

No Graeme, I was suggesting that if the Catalans had the Brazilian sugar (or any other's) they'd had sold it to the fat and glutton like you and me, and with the money bought loads of weapons. Do you have any particular reason to think the catalans dafter than the Portuguese?