The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

After months of staying pessimistic about global economic growth, amid the U.S. - China trade war, traders of long-term government bonds succumbed to a burst of investor optimism after reports said an agreement had been reached on a framework for rolling back import duties.

The result was the biggest selloff in the U.S. Treasury 10-year note since President Donald Trump’s election in Nov. 2016, when his victory sent long-term bond yields skyrocketing on the expectation that his administration would embark on pro-cyclical fiscal policies that would boost inflation.

Trump delivered on those expectations by getting his trillion dollar tax cut passed in Congress at the end of 2017, but bond yields have plummeted this year under the weight of concerns about Trump’s protectionist international trade policies which slowed the global economy.

The 10-year Treasury note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +1.28% is up 0.137 percentage points or 13.7 basis points on Thursday, the largest one-day climb since the day of Trump’s election when it gained 19.8 basis points. The benchmark yield is on pace for its highest closing level since July 31 when it settled at 2.034%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Donald Trump Jr.'s Book 'Triggered' Is a Fantastic Declaration of War on Liberalism

Donald Trump Jr. speaks to media during the annual White House Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on April 17, 2017. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

When I purchased Donald Trump Jr.'s newbookTriggered: How the Left Thrives on Hate and Wants to Silence Us, I wasn't really sure what to expect. Sure, I follow the first son on Twitter and, yes, I enjoy his appearances on talk shows, but still, a book is something completely different. The man has little to no experience in politics aside from being involved in his father's presidential campaign, and although he's clearly sure about where he stands on the issues, I didn't know how deep those beliefs went or how much he truly believed in them.

Well, if you want to test a person's beliefs, make him write a book. It's hard if not impossible to fake it for 300 pages or so. Or, for that matter, for 10 hours in an audiobook.

I wasn't disappointed. In fact, now that I've listened to it completely, it's not only crystal clear to me that Don Jr. knows that of which he speaks/writes, but also that he'll be a political force to be reckoned withfor years if not decadesto come.

Negative interest rates are unnaturally propping up the stock market and at some point the whole edifice will collapse. It’s an oft-repeated theory, but history suggests it might be wrong.

According to Kasper Lorenzen, the chief investment officer of pension fund PFA in Denmark, we’re essentially living through the negative supply shock that came with the oil crises of the 1970s, but in reverse. Thanks to cheaper imports and better technology, the supply shock is now positive and it’s going to continue shaping monetary policy far into the future, the theory goes.

“This is just a massive, positive supply shock, similar, though with a reverse sign, to the negative supply shock we saw in the 1970s,” he said in an interview.

“So the background I have in my head is that the positive supply shock has more to go,” Lorenzen said. “We’re not going to see inflation coming through.”

If you accept that premise, then equities start to look reasonably priced, he said. “Equities aren’t cheap, outright, but if you look at equities and equity valuations, relative to the interest rates, maybe it’s not too bad.”

Negative Rates

There’s growing opposition to negative rates. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan says it’s unhealthy that around 23% of global debt is now negative. Sweden’s Riksbank is trying to move away from them, while the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, says they’re not an option.

No other country has lived with negative rates as long as Denmark, which is in its eighth year of the regime. One of the country’s biggest banks predicts rates won’t be positive again for another eight years.

PFA, which is based in Copenhagen, booked record gains in the first nine months, with its equities portfolio returning 19%. And though the temptation is to ask how much longer such returns can last, Lorenzen says we may be underestimating the momentum of the current cycle.

BTW, if property stocks did peak in July 2019, then there is likely to be a very obvious downturn in the physical property market within 6-12 months after that peak, if the usual historical pattern holds. I have watched this pattern unfold in: the UK, the US, and in HK.

( It does take some confidence in technical work, to come out at key test moments and repeat the reasons why I stick to my guns, I have done this more than once. I can be wrong, and with these very precise charts, I will probably know pretty quickly, if I have it wrong, Yet, so far so good. haha. I actually don't mind when people disagree with me. Because I will change my view pretty quickly, if the evidence comes in.. showing my narrative is no longer valid. I think it is a bit like a horse race. There may be a horse out there with my colors on it, one that I supported. But if another narrative gets stronger, I am willing to change my bet. haha )