I ought to have mentioned that Manmohan Singh regime’s moves to sign CTBT and get going on FMCT is in the context of Obama’s declaration in Berlin yesterday that he’d like to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin nuclear drawdowns to the 1,000 weapons-level. Like the reductions negotiated so far in the START (Strategic Arms Reduction Talks), most of the weapons that go off-line will not be decommissioned in the sense of being destroyed but very likely moved to the category of weapons that will be disaggregated and stored in separate sections with plutonium cores kept separate, etc., all of which nuclear armaments can be speedily reconstituted if the situation so demands.

It also needs to be pointed out that originally the Obama White House had thought of unilateral reductions to the 300 weapons level but then thought better of it. Putin is unlikely to agree to any such shrinkage of the Russian weapons inventories, in the main, because the large nuclear arsenal today solely defines Russia’s strength and power. This means that this initiative is going nowhere.

But it will be enough to kickstart Manmohan Singh’s attempt to “disarm an unarmed” India as the Late KC Pant once aptly and ironically described all Western arms control and disarmament efforts.
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P.S. On an unconnected subject, why is the United States, in its haste to depart Afghanistan, not gifting its fleet of massive mines-resistant trucks costing a million dollars a piece to its local ally Afghanistan, or even Pakistan, which would benefit from such transport, rather than reducing it to small scrap metal at considerable expense? What a waste!

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About Bharat Karnad

Senior Fellow in National Security Studies at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, he was Member of the (1st) National Security Advisory Board and the Nuclear Doctrine-drafting Group, and author, among other books of, 'Nuclear Weapons and Indian Security: The Realist Foundations of Strategy', 'India's Nuclear Policy' and most recently, 'Why India is Not a Great Power (Yet)'. Educated at the University of California (undergrad and grad), he was Visiting Scholar at Princeton University, University of Pennsylvania, the Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and Henry L. Stimson Center, Washington, DC.

5 Responses to Further on the Prague agenda context for Manmohan S’ possible moves

I hope you do not mean to indirectly say that treaties like the CTBT and FMCT are acceptable to our country. Any govt. with national interests in mind should not accept any treaties that restrict the development of our strategic arsenal. Let the U.S/Russia and other P-5 powers take the lead towards universal disarmament.

That said, so far, no concrete evidence has emerged of any intention to sign the CTBT. Hope it stays that way. Any change in that (beyond reiterating our voluntary mpratorium on testing) would be a compromise on national interests bordering on treason.

Satyaki: While I am vehemently opposed to even the voluntary moratorium and do think that IUNCA should be scrapped. It would not be right to put a charge of treason on lawful acts of a government, even if we think it jeopardizes the national interest.

Not in the least, my entire writings on the subject have been not about compromising an iota on any aspect of national security — so not sure where you think I implied otherwise in terms of India signing the CTBT, FMCT, etc.

Not at all, so far as CTBT/ FMCT is concerned. But to presume an intended act, even before the first such noises are heard from the govt, and insinuating that they are about to sell-off national security, is scare- mongering/ character- assassination of the nastiest kind, with an obvious agenda to tarnish the image with utter and absolute, imaginary falsehoods. Sophistry …… remember! Maybe it could have been a better idea to make recommendations in the strongest possible terms without stooping down to taking names, unworthily at that.