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Beat the Streak Report: Memorial Day Weekend

Like Diddy in the Hamptons, you Streakers rolled into MDW in style. Yesterday’s top nine picks each carried the mail, propelling a whopping 59.1 percent of all selectors one day closer to throwing White Parties of their own.

Looking forward, this holiday weekend marks the season’s unofficial one-third pole — a time of barbecues, ballgames and convincing yourself that seersucker is a good idea. The novelty of warm weather hasn’t worn off yet and just about every team has something to play for. Our season leader sits at 30 games, but there will be plenty of hot streaks to ride as we waltz into the dog days.

Get out there and throw something on a grill — but don’t forget to lock in those picks first.

I am never going to get to double digits this year. I am going with people who are hot and they don’t do a damn thing but the rest of the team does. My worst year ever so far and I hope it gets better. Haven’t been past 2 in like 3 weeks.

Yeah, I’m with you in that 0-fer club. I got suckered into a sting operation :). Picked 1 of 2 hot hitters against a pitcher with a lifetime 300+ opposing batting average who throws a 1-hitter — the 7th place hitter. Pen came in & shut us down for the remainder of the game, including extras.
Kinda odd thing in one sense. Since I’ve been playing the HRBTS, the guy I chose may not have gotten a that day, but he did get a hit. Hmmm, different strategy? Nah, just luck/coincidence.

Dyslexia alert: Highest reset should have read:
Highest “No Selection” 🙂 pg# 5 with streak of 17 back to zero
— And for you Top2500 ppl, here’s the number of times your pick was picked:
B.Abreu 13x, R.Cano 159x, A.Huff 2x

One of the two tied in 2nd place either doesn’t know the rules or doesn’t keep up with schedule changes. C.Crawford if playing in both games of doubleheader will need hit in each for ryanboland708 to move on today.

Yesterday I mentioned how weekends generally mean big resets. So far that is true. Leader dropped yesterday along with 31% of the Top2500. Today, another leader will drop assuming LAA doesn’t bat around or extras. Unless Cano & Tulo go 0-fer, may have an overall lower reset rate than yesterday.

FYI: Of the Top2500, 138 picked players in the BOS/DET doubleheader (DH). That’s only about 5.5%, indicating most of us playing this game probably are aware not to pick in DHs or to change our picks when a rain-out is scheduled next day forcing a DH. So what was the result of those 138?
— 36 were lucky enough to move on
— 102 were reset due to picks not getting a hit in one of the games they played in. That’s 4 pages of the standings, including a 25, 20, & 19-gamer among them.

If there was ever a day that only doubleheaders played and you didn’t have DL player, what would be the theoretical strategy? For NL, I guess you’d look at the 1st games and pick the best catcher vs pitcher you can find since NL catchers rarely play both games. The AL is not so easy, cause a good hitting catcher can be designated hitter next game. Of course one could just pick a good singles hitter near top of lineup or best player in lineup & hope for the best Fun to think about, but what are the odds of such a day happening?

——————————————-Highest “No Selection” 😛 pg# 11 with streak of 14 back to zero.
Yesterday’s Top2500 Reset rate was 38.88% with ALBERTO CALLASPO reseting the most.
There was also 6.36% PPD due to players not playing. These streakers do not reset, but did not increase either.
——————————————–

It’s probably the worst strategy possible, but I look for a pitcher that has a ton more hits than innings pitched and then go for a player that is historically good against him. Also I look at R/L averages and home and away averages. Also how many hits so far for the season. My season high is 6 and my career high is 12.

No strategy is ideal else we’d have some BTS millionaires.
I think one flaw in that strategy is this: season numbers don’t tell the best story I think. I think it may be better to look at a pitcher’s last 3 starts (two weeks) to get a feel for a trend. Similar for batters, maybe look at past week or so for a trend.
Though that’s not always ideal either. Look at those that picked Votto: owns Narveson (500+ avg) & Votto hitting 300+ for past 7 days. Narveson’s last 2 outings were horrible & 2 before that were good, but holding lefties under 250 for the year. Votto seemed a good pick; trend-wise. But that logic reset a ton of streakers today. It all comes down to luck… Pick a hitter you think has a very good chance, statistically, of getting a hit. It’s up to the hitter to put the ball in play. Obviously easier said than done

Tough few days for BTS leaders. A quick summary…
Thursday: Leader falls with G.Sanchez
Friday: Both new co-leaders moved on but…
Saturday: One leader falls with S.Castro
Sunday: Remaining leader falls with A.Callaspo
Today: New leader falls with J.Votto
Leaders have to feel lately they are targeted by quality snipers!

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