Currency

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: GBP should gain some support today from comments from BoE Governor Carney, while geopolitics will likely drive global sentiment and the USD.
RATES: Local rates are likely to open under downward pressure given global moves on Friday night.
REVIEW

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Markets will have a keen eye on the Chinese data to confirm positive sentiment, while Q2 GDP for JPY will drive JPY crosses. GBP has downside risks from the July employment report and BoE inflation report.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: EUR is unlikely to find support from German confidence data, with it forecast to decline further. USD holdings will be looking for improvements to the hiring and quit rates in the JOLTs report.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Markets will be relatively quiet today, with little data to note. US FOMC vice chairman Stanley Fischer delivers a speech "The Great Recession: Moving Ahead" in Stockholm, which will be of interest to markets.

By Betty Lam (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
Embracing another session of mixed-bag leads offshore, local shares spent most of the morning swinging between mild gains and losses, before dipping into double-digit red dragged down by the financials which were down by over 0.5% as a sector.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: We would expect USD to find a cautious bid, as markets search for answers to the USD sell off. Australian employment will drive NZD/AUD, while the ECB should keep EUR capped overnight.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: New Zealand Q2 employment is the next NZD event, markets will look to sell any strength it generates, and punish any weakness. British industrial production has lagged other indicators and may pressure GBP.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: The USD will continue to drive currency direction, and we expect it to remain bid as we await payrolls and ISM data on Friday night. US jobless claims and employment costs will dictate direction tonight.

NZD
The NZD was the worst performing major currency, falling 0.6% against the USD on the back of a lower milk payout forecast and stronger US data. NZD/USD hovers just below the 0.8500 mark this morning.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Market attention switches to the USD tonight, with Q2 GDP and the FOMC to drive market direction. Markets have been wary of buying USD ahead of tonight's headline risk. If expectations are met, USD should rally.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Another relatively quiet day is expected as markets await US Q2 GDP and the FOMC on Wednesday night. We expect NZD/USD to remain under pressure, but profit taking to provide support near to 0.85.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: The week starts quietly, with no data from Australia, New Zealand or Asia expected today. The Markit Services PMI from the US will be a minor release of note as markets await larger US data releases.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: The RBNZ will decide NZD/USD direction, but we expect NZD to decline in the coming weeks. The EUR is unlikely to find support from July activity updates, but China and US updates should be supportive for growth.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Australian Q2 CPI should support AUD, pressuring NZD/AUD. GBP may come under pressure should the BoE minutes not have evidence of discussions over policy normalisation. NZD should remain under pressure into tomorrow's RBNZ meeting.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: NZ net migration and credit card spending should have minimal impact in a very quiet start to the week from a data perspective.
Geopolitics and events later in the week - particularly the RBNZ - will drive direction.

NZD
The NZD is down 0.5% against the USD, the worst performing major currency on the back of another large slide in dairy prices, as well as broader USD strength. NZD/USD sits just below 0.8770 currently.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Q2 CPI ensures NZD will remain in focus. After dairy declines markets will be ready to sell NZD on any weakness. GBP remains a focus with the monthly employment report, and the USD has the July Beige Book.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: Currency markets will focus on Fed Chair Yellen's testimony to the Senate and BoE Governor Carney's testimony to the UK Parliament tonight. Markets will be looking for shifts in tone from both.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: It is a relatively quiet end to the week, and we expect stability in the currency markets. NZ food prices and REINZ housing prices are not expected to provide catalyst for change.
RATES: NZ yields will open lower on global wobbles and on fresh demand.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: The Q2 Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) is expected to in decline from Q1 peaks, keeping pressure on NZD. Australian business confidence and US small business optimism are also drivers.

OUTLOOK
CURRENCY: New Zealand QV house prices are unlikely to impact NZD, but should highlight that house prices remain a factor for the RBNZ. EUR remains the offshore focus with German industrial production expected to keep pressure on EUR from a fundamental perspective.