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Line movement: Most shops opened Louisville -9.5 and moved later Sunday night to -10, and that’s where the point spread remains as of late Wednesday afternoon. The total’s been bet up from 127.5.

Louisville (31-5 SU, 22-14 ATS, 16-14 O/U)

Louisville’s big concern: The Cardinals destroyed Colorado State’s backcourt with hard pressure designed to break the Rams before they could even get into the game. That was a fairly risk-free proposition, because the primary ballhandlers also were the players who could most punish the tactic. That’s not as true with Oregon. If guards Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd can manage not to wilt under pressure, the Cardinals will either surrender open 3-pointers to smoking hot shooter Damyean Dotson or be forced to switch to their soft press into the 2-3 zone. Then they’ll have to be aware of Dotson and forward E.J. Singler’s ability to hurt them from the outside. Dotson is an unusual case. He went 0-for-11 on 3-pointers in the final five games of the regular season, but in single-elimination play has made 16-of-30.

Oregon (28-8 SU, 15-18-1 ATS, 12-16 O/U)

Oregon’s big concern: Even in battling Oklahoma State All-American Marcus Smart in the first round, the Ducks haven’t faced a point guard with as strong a command of the position as Louisville’s Peyton Siva. He now is 6-1 in NCAA Tournament games as an upperclassmen, and though he sometimes can be conned into a tough shooting day he dominates his position with superior decision-making, excellent defense and surpassing leadership. Against Saint Louis’ terrific backcourt, Oregon chose to use an approach similar to what makes the Cardinals elite defensively: a nuisance press designed to limit shot-clock time, then a 2-3 zone opponents don’t have enough time to probe. In his last two shots at the Syracuse zone, Siva went 0-for-13 from 3-point range. The Ducks might want to try this again.

Key matchup: Oregon PF Arsalan Kazemi vs. Louisville C Gorgui Dieng. The Ducks start 6-11 Tony Woods at center, but they don’t play him much—18 minutes or less in the past three games. That leaves Kazemi as the Ducks’ biggest player. This has not been a disadvantage against such teams as UCLA, OK State and Saint Louis, none of which employs a genuine center. Dieng is not a great low-post scorer, so Kazemi shouldn’t have much trouble in that area. But Kazemi’s ability to rebound—15 per game over the past three—has been essential to Oregon’s current run. Dieng, who wrecked a very good big man in Colorado State’s Colton Iverson, might be quick and long enough to do the same to Kazemi.

The Linemakers' lean:Louisville has won 12 straight games and covered nine in a row, and the Cardinals look like they may indeed be the best team in the country. But they face an Oregon squad that’s playing with a chip on its shoulder after getting shorted by the selection committee. The Ducks beat two very good clubs – Oklahoma State and St. Louis – by a combined 30 points to get to the Sweet 16, and Rick Pitino’s group better not get caught looking past them. Our numbers have Louisville rated 13 points better than Oregon, but this point spread is still just too fat to pass up. We’re on the dog.