U.S. Economy Grew at Annual Rate of 5.7% in Fourth Quarter, More Than Expected
The United States economy grew at its fastest pace in over
six years at the end of 2009, but a sluggish job market is
still souring economists on the sustainability of the
recovery.

Gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 5.7
percent in the fourth quarter, well above analysts'
expectations. It had grown at an annualized rate of 2.2
percent in the previous quarter.

1. Businesses had run so low on stores of inventory, and that inventory prices (because of depressed demand) had actually fallen, so some businesses bought some things -- it's better than having empty showrooms and shelves.

2. Some business profit margins actually did grow (at least temporarily) because they had cut down on their costs -- often, by firing loads of "dispensible" employees. They might have lowered their cost profiles by tossing out some employees. Sadly, this contributes to growing unemployment, decreases disposable personal income, and diminishes consumerism, which ultimately destroys sales. It is rather like throwing the walls into the fireplace to heat the house - temporary.

3. Statistics are funny. Note that if my sales of last year were $50.0 million, and this year they were $52.5 million, my sales grew at a rate of 5% during the year. But what if (ooooooooooh.....) my sales had dropped to $25.0 million last year (and they had previously been at a pre-recession level of $50.0 million), and they had grown to $27.5million this year? That would appear to be an increase of 10%. Yet, despite the increase, my sales hadn't grown even close to earlier levels. In statistics, the smaller the selected starting number, the easier it is to evidence "growth."

In the words of a great American philosopher, "and that's all I've got to say about that."

Think about the implications behind the percentages, folks. And if you are just a tad mistrustful, think of the motives behind the sources presenting those statistics.

Global Futurists - I do not see a recovery in the United States economy for quite some time to come. I wish that I felt differently.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

I am aggressively seeking collaboration experts, advocates and thought leaders who are interested in writing (brief entries as part of a cooperative forum) and promoting their views about any of the topics below:

·Collaboration software and technology;

·Collaboration ideology, theory and philosophy;

·Breakthrough thinking through collaboration;

·Equitable sharing of the efforts (costs) and benefits (profits) ofintellectual property and other assets developed through the collaboration mechanism;

·Trends and future predictions regarding the expansion of the practice of collaboration and/or the technology associated with it.

Should you have an interest, I would welcome the opportunity to discuss this project with you in greater detail. The Group will be called "Accelerated Breakthroughs," and will be working under the auspices of TNNW’s GICBC (Global Interworked Cooperative Business Community). We already have a substantial readership and prospective market base upon which to showcase our group, and to whom we can intelligently and tastefully promote the services of each of our principal forum participants. There exists a tremendous opportunity for participation in the ownership of valuable intellectual property, publication and promotion.

I will be out of town from 18th January, and returning on 26th January. During this interval, I will not be accessing or responding to any emails, telephone messages or posting any material to blogs or social media. I look forward to being in touch with you soon after my return.

A great friend of mine who is an excellent writer herself and is not generally given to profanity, but who has a wonderfully dry sense of humor (and a fabulous sense of irony as well) forwarded the following email to my attention. It appears uncensored and unedited in an manner -- please accept my apologies in advance if I have offended your sensibilities by printing this; but I do so with sincere educational intent:

---------------------------------------------------------

Due to the current financial situation caused by the slowdown in the economy, Congress has decided

to implement a scheme to put workers of 50 years of age and above on early retirement, thus creating

jobs and reducing unemployment.

This scheme will be known as RAPE (Retire Aged People Early).

Persons selected to be RAPED can apply to Congress to be considered for the SHAFT program
(Special Help After Forced Termination).

Persons who have been RAPED and SHAFTED will be reviewed under the SCREW program
(System Covering Retired-Early Workers).

A person may be RAPED once, SHAFTED twice and SCREWED as many times as Congress
deems appropriate.

Persons who have been RAPED could get AIDS (Additional Income for Dependants & Spouse)

or HERPES (Half Earnings for Retired Personnel Early Severance).

Obviously persons who have AIDS or HERPES will not be SHAFTED or SCREWED any further
by Congress.

Persons who are not RAPED and are staying on will receive as much SHIT (Special High Intensity
Training) as possible. Congress has always prided themselves on the amount of SHIT they give
our citizens.

Should you feel that you do not receive enough SHIT, please bring this to the attention of your
Congressman, who has been trained to give you all the SHIT you can handle.

Sincerely,
The Committee for Economic Value of Individual Lives (E.V.I.L.)

PS - - Due to recent budget cuts and the rising cost of electricity, gas and oil, as well as current
market conditions, the Light at the End of the Tunnel has been turned off.

----------------------------------------------------------I believe that the foregoing letter, intended to be humorous (and it is -- I am a big fan of acronyms), makes a very serious statement regarding the sentiment of the times in which we live. It speaks of cynicism, skepticism, disillusionment, hopelessness and deeply-ingrained sorrow. The global economic recession (as well as the very deep US recession) is far overshadowed in its severity by the cloud of emotional depression that has engulfed our home planet. I am personally prone to depression, and know what steps I must undertake in order to keep it from overwhelming me; but there are altogether too many souls who are neophytes to deep, heart-wrenching depression and who are experiencing it full-blown now. It is a killing thing, and it is highly contagious. Take a look (after you have read this article) at LINKS 4 LIFE, a public service blog site which is loaded with articles, information and resources about depression. It can be found at http://lifelinksiep.blogspot.com , and I would strongly advise that you make it a favorite.

The growing disparity between the reality which we experience and the dreams we have harbored and run off into since chidhood has widened and continues to widen. As this disparity between infinite possibilities and barely-tolerable realities grows, we are being drawn into a deepening well of depression. Prophetically, this is beginning to lead us to a potentially lethal mindset: the mindset of the automaton, merely existing, but not functioning as a Human Being, with all of the imagination and dreaming that makes joy possible, and joyous innovation more probable. We are becoming more animal and less divine. We are wounded, and we are surrendering to sorrow and self-pity. At stake are our Humanity and the very future of our species. Deprived of hopes, faith and dreams, we die. This poverty of spirit should not be permitted to continue.

Through my affiliation with The National Networker Companies, I have promulgated the notion of the GICBC - the Global Interworked Cooperative Business Community as the Next Business Entity...a sort of entrepreneurship-driven synergy generator for the sustainable financial support of all Members. I am part of a growing movement to make the GICBC a successful reality. You can join the world's first by becoming a Member of The National Networker Companies' GICBC at http://twitlik.com/IN . It is free, and Members who contribute to its success will ultimately be stakeholders and annuity recipients - it has the advantage of being a self-fulfilling Meritocracy, without insurmountable capital requirements (there are none), and no birthright privileges or bigotry. Simply put: Contribute more. Own More. Earn More.

What I had not thought about was the GICBC's potential to be a viable emotional support system -- a vessel of hope, of reinforcement, of camaraderie, of spiritual synergy. I was trapped into the "survivalist" limitation of thinking of only financial security for myself, and for all Members. I had underestimated my own idea and its potential. You see, I too, can be all too easily sucked into the black hole of negativity, and of negative thinking. This adaptation of Adam J. Kovitz's original (albeit somewhat ethereal and a tad amorphous -- Adam is still a philosopher and a rocket scientist at heart) notion of "Relationship Capital" has turned out to be much greater, and much more significant than I thought.

We had better start getting together. We can save ourselves by saving each other.

(CNN) -- James Cameron's completely immersive spectacle "Avatar" may have been a little too real for some fans who say they have experienced depression and suicidal thoughts after seeing the film because they long to enjoy the beauty of the alien world Pandora.

On the fan forum site "Avatar Forums," a topic thread entitled "Ways to cope with the depression of the dream of Pandora being intangible," has received more than 1,000 posts from people experiencing depression and fans trying to help them cope. The topic became so popular last month that forum administrator Philippe Baghdassarian had to create a second thread so people could continue to post their confused feelings about the movie.

"I wasn't depressed myself. In fact the movie made me happy ," Baghdassarian said. "But I can understand why it made people depressed. The movie was so beautiful and it showed something we don't have here on Earth. I think people saw we could be living in a completely different world and that caused them to be depressed."

A post by a user called Elequin expresses an almost obsessive relationship with the film.

"That's all I have been doing as of late, searching the Internet for more info about 'Avatar.' I guess that helps. It's so hard I can't force myself to think that it's just a movie, and to get over it, that living like the Na'vi will never happen. I think I need a rebound movie," Elequin posted.

A user named Mike wrote on the fan Web site "Naviblue" that he contemplated suicide after seeing the movie.

"Ever since I went to see Avatar I have been depressed. Watching the wonderful world of Pandora and all the Na'vi made me want to be one of them. I can't stop thinking about all the things that happened in the film and all of the tears and shivers I got from it," Mike posted. "I even contemplate suicide thinking that if I do it I will be rebirthed in a world similar to Pandora and the everything is the same as in 'Avatar.' "

Other fans have expressed feelings of disgust with the human race and disengagement with reality.

Cameron's movie, which has pulled in more than $1.4 billion in worldwide box office sales and could be on track to be the highest grossing film of all time, is set in the future when the Earth's resources have been pillaged by the human race. A greedy corporation is trying to mine the rare mineral unobtainium from the planet Pandora, which is inhabited by a peace-loving race of 7-foot tall, blue-skinned natives called the Na'vi.

In their race to mine for Pandora's resources, the humans clash with the Na'vi, leading to casualties on both sides. The world of Pandora is reminiscent of a prehistoric fantasyland, filled with dinosaur-like creatures mixed with the kinds of fauna you may find in the deep reaches of the ocean. Compared with life on Earth, Pandora is a beautiful, glowing utopia.

Ivar Hill posts to the Avatar forum page under the name Eltu. He wrote about his post-Avatar depression after he first saw the film earlier this month.

"When I woke up this morning after watching Avatar for the first time yesterday, the world seemed ... gray. It was like my whole life, everything I've done and worked for, lost its meaning," Hill wrote on the forum. "It just seems so ... meaningless. I still don't really see any reason to keep ... doing things at all. I live in a dying world."

Reached via e-mail in Sweden where he is studying game design, Hill, 17, explained that his feelings of despair made him desperately want to escape reality.

"One can say my depression was twofold: I was depressed because I really wanted to live in Pandora, which seemed like such a perfect place, but I was also depressed and disgusted with the sight of our world, what we have done to Earth. I so much wanted to escape reality," Hill said.

Cameron's special effects masterpiece is very lifelike and the 3-D performance capture and CGI effects essentially allow the viewer to enter the alien world of Pandora for the movie's 2½-hour run-time, which only lends to the separation anxiety some individuals experience when they depart the movie theater.

"Virtual life is not real life and it never will be, but this is the pinnacle of what we can build in a virtual presentation so far," said Dr. Stephan Quentzel, psychiatrist and Medical Director for the Louis Armstrong Center for Music and Medicine at Beth Israel Medical Center in New York. "It has taken the best of our technology to create this virtual world and real life will never be as utopian as it seems onscreen. It makes real life seem more imperfect."

Fans of the movie may find actor Stephen Lang, who plays the villainous Col. Miles Quaritch in the film, an enemy of the Na'vi people and their sacred ground, an unlikely sympathizer, but Lang says he can understand the connection people are feeling with the movie.

"Pandora is a pristine world and there is the synergy between all of the creatures of the planet and I think that strikes a deep cord within people that has a wishfulness and a wistfulness to it," Lang said. "James Cameron had the technical resources to go along with this incredibly fertile imagination of his and his dream is built out of the same things that other peoples' dreams are made of."

The bright side is that for Hill and others like him who became dissatisfied with their own lives and with our imperfect world after enjoying the fictional creation of James Cameron, becoming a part of a community of like-minded people on an online forum has helped them emerge from the darkness.

"After discussing on the forums for a while now, my depression is beginning to fade away. Having taken a part in many discussions concerning all this has really, really helped me," Hill said. "Before, I had lost the reason to keep on living -- but now it feels like these feelings are gradually being replaced with others."

Quentzel said creating relationships with others is one of the keys to human happiness and that even if those connections are occurring online they are better than nothing.

"Obviously there is community building in these forums," Quentzel said. "It may be technologically different from other community building, but it serves the same purpose."

Within the fan community, suggestions for battling feelings of depression after seeing the movie include things like playing "Avatar" video games or downloading the movie soundtrack in addition to encouraging members to relate to other people outside the virtual realm and to seek out positive and constructive activities. ####

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Dear Friends, again:

Please give what I have said some serious thought. Then take some serious action. Become a recruit in the battle to save our species. Join me at http://twitlik.com/IN . Bridge the gap between the greatest, happiest dreams and The Human Experience. We need a critical mass of positive minds. Now. It is never to late to become the person you once dreamed of becoming.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is about to set down some new, strict, health standards for companies which generate any type of waste products. My preliminary analysis (in brief) of this policy is set forth below a reprint of the article which happened to inspire me to say "I told you so." But I'm not going to do that, as appropriate as that may be. Analyzing this bit of news about a governmental agency policy is a wonderful intellectual/ brain-building and policymaking/ strategic planning exercise. For those of you who are new to this, here's how we play the game:

Firstly, read the article excerpted from THE NEW YORK TIMES which follows; secondly, click the back button and take a look at my findings and see how yours compare. Remember: No peeking at my answers until you have had an opportunity to form your own opinions!

The Environmental Protection Agency's new limits -- which are
presented as a range -- will likely put hundreds more
counties nationwide in violation, a designation that will
require them to find additional ways to clamp down on
pollution or face government sanctions, most likely the loss
of federal highway dollars.

Okay. Now that you've had an opportunity to preview the policy, compare your findings with mine:

1. MOTIVES - A power-grab by the EPA to further regulate industry under the guise of environmental protection and being green-compliant. A money-grab by the federal government to fund its burgeoning deficit by making counties pay a ransom to the federal government -- it's a sort of reverse federal-aid program to save the federal government money, and to actually collect more tax, penalty and compliance dollars from the counties in every city and state. The federal government is grabbing the near empty wallet of a fellow (metaphorically) already walking to bankrupcy court. [The fellow is walking because he has lost his job and cannot afford cabfare, and because his own automobile is excreting too much CO2, the deadly greenhouse gas that is integral for photosynthesis....but that's another tale].

2. BENEFITS - The federal government, the EPA and scores of attorneys will benefit. The environment (and the people who choose to continue living in it) will benefit by a reduction in potentially toxic factory emissions and cleaner air. Ahhhhh!

3. COSTS - All borne by the taxpaying public and businesses (the costs of regulatory compliance are generally quite high). There will be increased incentives for businesses, jobs and talent to go overseas. There will be reduced industrial output in the US, decreasing employment, and other additional hardships to numerous to list. Service businesses, which shouldn't be as immediately and precipitously impacted, will feel the pinch as county tax bases are reduced and greater tax burdens are placed upon them.

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The Forecasting Dilemma: Predicting the Future Versus Creating the Future.

*** Auto-Propagating Paradoxes;*** Castle's Law of Predictive Bias.

Dear Friends:

The information which follows was excerpted for a bulletin which I received from Timothy Mack, the President of The World Future Society, regarding the WFS' predictions for the next 25 years. I enjoy reading the WFS' insights, and they are one of many selected providers of information from which I derive my own insights and draw my own conclusions. Should you have an interest, you can visit their website at http://www.wfs.org/, and become a member. While I do not always agree with their views and I do not endorse them, their material provide some fine food for thought.

The reason for my request that you read the excerpted piece that follows is to prepare you for some observations which I have made in terms of some curious and challenging dilemmas and auto-propagating paradoxes (a lingovation) which all futurists face in rendering forecasts. Please read on:

7 Ways to Spot Tomorrow’s Trends Today

In the more than 40 years since the World Future Society was founded, futurists have developed a range of techniques to study the future. Here are a few techniques which futurists use to spot new opportunities and potential problems. These methods give individuals and organizations an edge to help them succeed in a fast-changing world:

1. Scan the Media to Identify Trends—Futurists often conduct an ongoing and systematic surveys of news media and research institutes. These surveys help spot significant trends and technology breakthroughs. Futurists call this environmental scanning.

2. Analyze and Extrapolate Trends—After the trends are identified, the next step is to plot the trends to show their direction and development into the future. Trend analysis and extrapolation can show the nature, causes, speed, and potential impacts of trends.

3. Develop Scenarios—Futurists often describe the future development of a trend, a strategy, or a wild-card event in story form. These scenarios can paint a vivid picture that can help you visualize possible future developments and show how you can prepare effectively for future risks and opportunities. Scenarios help you to blend what you know about the future with imagination about the uncertain. Scenarios help you move from dreaming to planning and then to accomplishment.

4. Ask Groups of Experts—Futurists also conduct “Delphi Polls” which are carefully structured surveys of experts. Polling a wide range of experts in a given field can yield accurate forecasts and suggestions for action.

5. Use Computer Modeling—Futurists often use computer models to simulate the behavior of a complex system under a variety of conditions. For example, a model of the U.S. economy might show the effects of a 10 percent increase in taxes.

6. Explore Possibilities with Simulations—Futurists create simulations of a real-world situations by means of humans playing different roles. For example, in war games, generals test out tactics they may later use on the battlefield, or corporate executives can explore the possible results of competitive strategies.

7. Create the Vision—Futurists help organizations and individuals systematically develop visions of a desirable future. Visioning creates the big picture of the possibilities and prepares the way for goal setting and planning.

####The short piece above is interesting for several reasons. The numbered items that follow are my thoughts:

1. The first three points made in the excerpt are classic. We must observe. We must analyze and extrapolate. We must describe scenarios (some call these "futurescapes," a terrific term which I did not get to invent). Every futurist who is serious about this prediction business must do all three.

2. The Delphi Poll (a poll where a selected sampling of experts are asked what they feel about the likelihood of something occuring or not occurring) is a rather statistically "fuzzy" approach but is generally very predictive in terms of the median results (of those experts polled) and their correlation with future events. But correlation does not imply causality -- Simply stated, are the results accurate because of the expertise of the respondents, or were they accurate because: a) these experts, collectively, were in a position to "create" the future through their influence and policymaking; b) these experts, upon hearing the findings of the study made the prediction into a reality through the very Human phenomenon of a self-fulfilling prophesy? The issue is whether these experts, through either means, were able to (whether deliberately or unconsciously) influence the outcome... to create the future by their conscious or subconscious will.

I am not speaking about creating the future through some arcane means of visualizing it and bringing it forth due to the Law of Attraction or through any such mechanism. I am speaking of the same phenomenon which occurs when major institutional investors start making "predictions" about stocks which become true as investors follow their lead.

When I spoke earlier about auto-propagating paradoxes, I meant that the experts influence the trends which they are observing, and then, having observed the effect of their own influence (perhaps unbeknownst to them), further steepen and sharpen those trends by further action of the self-fulfilling prophesy.

"The more influential the person or group making a prediction, the more likely it is that the prediction will be accurate or fulfilled."

As simple as this sounds, its ramifications are amazing. To an extent, it means that authority and power dictate the future, barring certain foibles of nature and other intrusions into the plan by the Laws of Physics or Physiology. This also explains why today's dream can be tomorrow's reality -- if the dreamer is influential enough.

3. As for statements 5, 6 and 7 in the excerpted text above, they are all really related tools: simulation, sensitivity analysis and model algorithms or result-generating programs are all just means of seeing how a change in a particular variable can change the outcome of an event. The issue here is still one of Human bias: Who chooses the variables? Who writes the original program? Who frames the study? The answer is "Humans."

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

The American Foundation For Suicide Prevention Programs. Help save a life. Learn more - http://twitlik.com/AFSP Every life is precious. Know how to help. Know how to access emergency treatment. Always take any discussions or thoughts of suicide seriously. Don't ever leave a suicidal person alone. An hour of conversation while waiting for emergency help to arrive can make all the difference.

If you are having thoughts of suicide, call for emergency treatment (there are some excellent resources at LINKS 4 LIFE), and then call a friend or family member. Keep calling until you connect. If you can't get anyone, get to a place where there are people and some activity. There's hope... and there's help. I promise.