The far-Right may have lost in Austria, but the march of the populists will continue – and paralyse the EU

In one of the closest and tightly national electoral races of recent times, 72-year old Green economist Alexander van der Bellen beat Norbert Hofer of the far-right Freedom Party to the Austrian Presidency by 50.3 per cent to 49.7 per cent in a result which will have prompted many sighs of relief across Europe, even if the President’s role is mainly ceremonial.

Although we ought to be wary of drawing too many conclusions from the result, there are nonetheless some wider implications for European politics and the upcoming EU referendum in the UK.

Firstly, although social and political conditions in Austria have long been favourable for the far-Right with the FPÖ even entering government in 1999 under Jörg Haider, the result confirms a trend that the extremist parties from across the spectrum are on the rise across Europe. This includes the far-Right, with parties ranging from populist and anti-immigrant to outright fascist polling well and winning seats. Over the past twelve months such parties have won seats in Poland, Slovakia and Cyprus, while in Germany, Alternative für Deutschland, which began life as an-anti euro party but which has now morphed into an anti-Islam party, is regularly polling in third and performed strongly in recent regional elections. In France Marine Le Pen’s National Front also performed very strongly in regional elections.

Up until now, the intense negative feelings such parties provoked has limited their support, especially in one-on-one contests – it was notable in France for example that the National Front barely expanded its vote share between the first and second round of the elections and therefore failed to win any regions. However, such parties are increasingly moderating their core messages and fusing anti-immigration policies with more centre-Left economic ones, they are able to broaden their appeal beyond their traditional base. It is striking that young voters, who many would assume to be more cosmopolitan in outlook, are ready to vote for such parties.

The ongoing refugee and migration crisis has been incredibly polarising in electoral terms, clearly boosting the prospects for such parties with voters concerned both by the chaotic management of the crisis and the sense that no one was in control as well as the longer-term social and cultural implications of assimilating a significant number of foreigners. When added to the pool of voters opposed to liberal economic policies, the prospect of a far-Right party coming first in a national election or winning a presidential contest at some point in the future is not inconceivable.

Secondly, this trend is also closely associated with instances of grand coalitions – i.e. where the main centre-Left and centre-Right parties form a common government, resulting in opposition to the government coming from the more extreme ends of the political spectrum. Austria has for instance been governed by a grand coalition since 2007 while Germany has one. This impression of political elites closing ranks in turn causes a backlash with voters looking to parties promising to shake up the system. This could mean that established parties increasingly conclude the electoral price of such arrangements is not worth paying, potentially leading to less stable and predictable governments across Europe in future.

This in turn will make governing Europe more difficult; governments with weak mandates afraid of triggering snap elections will most likely be very risk averse. On one hand this is good news as it means grandiose integrationist schemes will be off the agenda. That said, it is also widely recognised that without significant reform it will be difficult to sustain the eurozone politically or economically, and yet political paralysis driven either by the success of extreme parties or the prospect of such success will make it even harder to agree on such a package.

In terms of the UK’s EU referendum, the direct implications are limited, although the election of a far-Right candidate would have enforced the Leave campaign’s argument that Europe is generally heading in the wrong direction and that leaving is there the safer option. There is one key lesson however which is that in a very tight race, every vote matters.