Brozek Deck Wins?

Petr Brozek is 8-1 after day one of GP Oakland with a boros deck. Looks like landfall burn with white removal but some interesting choices. He's running searing blaze, Geopede, md ghost quarter and zaktar shrine expedition.

I'm not sure all of his choices are optimal but I'm curious to see a decklist.

I firmly believe its the best deck in the format. Which is a little crazy since its brand new and mostly standard legal. 3rd turn kills around 40% of the time and built in hate to the other "best deck in the format" are pretty awesome.

From the brozek list, I have a few thoughts/ changes.

First, I think it needs 24 lands. 1 More plains helps the midgame where you need another basic/plains to fetch and also helps makes sure you keep drawing land, especially since the fetches can thin your deck pretty significantly.

I'm not crazy about magma jet, but it does help this deck more than the usually bad burn decks who play it. Not sure if my 60th card is going to be 1x jet or 1x jotun grunt.

Sideboard:

Not sure if pithing needle or damping matrix is right. Matrix stops everything in depths, although foundry is mostly all you care about. The ability to play other spells in the same turn as needle is relevant, and both can be into the roiled equally easily. Needle does die to explosives though, which gives them another out.

Not sure about grunt and dredge. It is alot more versatile than any other dredge hate and is pretty awesome against zoo. Need to test and see how it works out. Samurai of the pale curtain is also definitely up for consideration for both dredge and thopter.

I think pyroclasm is better than fallout but that also should be tested.

That is a very bold claim Chris. We will have to test this deck thoroughly.

How are its matches against aggro decks? I imagine R/G Scapeshift could handle a deck like this that features smaller threats and more narrow focus. I imagine that whenever your opponent has lightning bolt or Punishing Fire Zektar Shrine becomes real irrelevant.

Please let us know how you think the deck fairs against the dominant decks right now. How are the results against DDT, slow zoo, fast zoo, Elf combo, Dredge, Thopter-Combo, Scapeshift, etc.?

Expedition isn't so hot against burn of any sort, but honestly keeping your landfall creatures in play is much more important so it isn't a total loss. Alot like burn the race with scapshift is very close but this deck has much more versatile removal/ trample to get through the scapeshift creatures at least.

DDT is almost a bye which is one of the biggest reasons to play the deck. I definitely need to do more testing especially against elves and dredge.

Chris I hesitate to ask but I must: what were your testing methods?Were you testing against the trolls on MOTO or against genuine good players?Did you test against yourself? Did you keep records?I don't mean to be rude but whenever I hear about format superiority I always want to carefully check the methodology and the data analysis.

The win percentage against DDT, fae, and Thopter-Combo sounds very consistent with what we would expect. However, I am surprised by your results against combo.Does boros-burn really beat the Mono-White-Martyr lifegain deck 35% of the time? That seems odd.Is this deck really faster than Dredge 65% of the time? Are we talking pre-board or post-board here? I also image elves would combo out much faster than you can force through 20 damage; elves seems like a poor matchup for boros-burn.

I hate to sound skeptical but if what your test results are accurate forecasts of the metagame, this deck has complete format superiority and is far and above the best deck in the format right now. You have potentially found the deck with the objectively highest expected value of them all and this deck is cheap as hell to boot.

If this is so, why aren't more people playing boros-burn? I'd think the online community with price considerations would swarm around this deck as soon as someone played it and won.

Also, I hate it when people just throw numbers out there to predict the matchup percentage wihtout putting an incredible amount of data collection in.

There is nothing wrong with suggesting, hey this matchup is terrble when they drop this card. For example, as a zoo player I feel confident against faeries and would suggest that I win a lot more than i lose. As opposed to just saying I win 75% of all game ones, I would suggest more of a I will win unless they activate jitte, then things get dicey. I really cant put a concrete number on it but i know jitte (and mistbind) are the problem cards in game 1.

There is a lot of math to this game, but it more often just comes down to the cards.

Like I said I have not done extensive scientific testing, just playing it a ton on MODO against players of varying skillsets and against myself on MWS, obviously neither is an ideal testing scenario.

As I said the percentages above are rough guesses based on limited play experience and not the result of thorough testing.

As for the deck jumping off online the price of cards from the deck has already skyrocketed overnight although there aren't any MODO ptqs for almost a month.

Elves is not a great matchup but not a completely write off or anything at all. Similarly to Naya burn last year the deck can keep the elf count low with removal and win with creatures a decent amount of the time, not saying that makes it a favorable matchup. Definitely something to consider as elves will likely be out in force this weekend.

The Deck is roughly the same speed as the fast combo decks in the format, which makes the coin flip very important.

I've actually found that the current Martyr builds aren't as much of a problem for very fast aggro decks as they would seem. I've been paired against Martyr 3 times with burn this season and haven't lost a match. That isn't the likely result though and still doesn't make it a favorable or even ok matchup, but you can often apply enough pressure early to steal some wins. Also 35% is not a good number at all, when actually doing rigorous testing I don't think I've ever seen a deck with worse than about that number, take a look at our spreadsheets from last year, overall match win percentages for the worst matchups were just under 40%.

I think people tend to over estimate or exaggerate good and bad matchups quite a bit. I would assume that all of the decent decks are actually probably actually within about a 15% window of each other.

So, Ben and I have gone over this, but there is a huge statistical variance in the end winning percentage and you need hundreds of games in a specific match-up to reduce this variance to an acceptable level. I am glad that you acknowledge your percentages as estimates. As for the faeries matchup, I ran 10 games with it against Boros Burn pre and post board, went 0-10 pre-board and 2-8 post board and never really felt like I was in the game, hence my "this is 20/80 at best" statement. Bottom line is I feel the matchup is unwinnable. As for the other decks, I am sure there are counter tactics that can be employed, especially against such an incredibly linear deck like this. I think Brozek Deck Wins is a great deck, but as for "best deck in the field" not so much. It may be reasonably well positioned though.

I have no qualms about you deciding to play it and you liking the deck. To each his own. Still, I hope you do understand the inherent variance in small scale testing results and how they can generate a skewed view of the matchup. I agree with Jared in that you should focus on the tactical decisions that are strong/weak and what cards are good against you.

I wish you good luck attacking with Steppe Lynxes and Geopedes at the PTQ. I will have the cards I mentioned for you in your email.

I guess the best deck comment was aimed at what I expect to be a field comprised of most of the good players playing Depths, and the deck being good agaisnt the rest of the field as well. Obviously if Martyr suddenly becoems the deck to beat my statemetn is no-where near true.

I also despise someone posting online abotu hwo their deck has no bad matchups and has a 90% winning percentage against every deck in the room. Those kind of things don't happen and aren't absed on any realistic data.

7his dek rul3z i lik3 it but u n33d mor litenin bolts mayb like 17 n u shud play killdem maradahz but oth3r than 7ha7 i lik dek i mi7e plya it cuz it rul3z cept u n33d to take out th0s3 dumb l@nds like fl@gstins and put in moooor litnin bolts they rul3z

So I've still been testing Boros landfall quite a bit. It has become pretty popular which brings a decent amount of hate (darkblast is everywhere) and it picks up losses to some rally janky decks, despite being very respectable against the top decks. I have spent a ton of time trying to find another 2 drop creature to fit in the deck rather than the last three slots which are pretty loose (Jotun Grunt and 2 magma jet). Obviously Goyf is the best two drop in the format so why not?

This list has a slightly less consistent manabase but seems pretty solid, having a few more creatures that stick around is definitely an improvement and doesn’t give up much in the way of decreased speed:

If you are concerned about the speed of the card (and I don't think you should be, as the deck has more than enough things to do in the first few turns), then I would honestly give Akki Raider a shot. He seems perfectly reasonable in a deck that is designed to put lots of land in the graveyard. He should be 3+ power on offense most of the time. I'm not saying he'll be good, but I think it's worth giving him a chance. Your removal is completely overloaded against Boros, so the fact that the new guy is easy to remove is not really an issue. Goyf dies to smother too.

This deck shouldn't be playing anything that doesn't die to smother, the real issues are toughness and "stickaroundatude". Goyf wins the stickaroundatude contest and Nacatl is almost always un upgrade on goblin guide in that package.

For 2 drops with 1 toughness soltari preist would be better than Akki due to the evasion and let you stay r/w.

It isn't much of an issue, but one of the appeals of this deck over Zoo is the fact that it is hyperconsistent and fast. What happens if you lose your Stomping Ground or don't have a fetchland in your opening hand? What happens if you have a hand that looks like this: Tarn, Mountain, Ghost Quarter, Steppe Lynx, Nacatl, Goyf, Bolt. Are you really going to play the Nacatl on turn one instead of the Steppe Lynx?

I think the mana is more of a concern than you make it out to be. I'd just stay two colors. Jotun Grunt is fine, and if you don't like it, I'd play Serra Avenger or Soltari Priest. Both of those are also fine. Zvi once said that when examining two similar decks, the one with better mana is superior. This was the criteria that led me to believe Boros Bushwacker was inferior to mono-red in standard, and this is also the criteria that is leading me to say green mana is not worth it for you. Is the drop-off from Goyf to Marauders or Avenger really that big? No.