Monday

Current radar is on the left…on the right is a picture of the National Weather Service Office in Marquette taken Sat. AM. Click the picture to enlarge. You can see some frost on the roof!! Here’s storm total rainfall from GRR. You can see (until they reset it) where it rained, with a thunderstorm came into Benton Harbor and fell apart inland, there was a shower moving across N. Muskegon Co. to near Big Rapids and some other sprinkles…not much. Most of today (Mon.) will be partly sunny and dry. I’ve got an appearance at The Meadows Golf Course at GVSU, where there will be a fundraiser golf/lunch…then into work. Thanks to Hudsonville for giving me a few minutes to share some historical information about our Founding Fathers and their interest in weather as part of their Flag Day Ceremonies on Saturday. It’s was a relatively quiet day for severe weather in the U.S. Sunday. Things will pick up this week and we’ll have a few storms to deal with this week.

Model update: The NAM (car). overnight run gives G.R. dry weather this Monday, 0.33″ rain on Tues., 0.06″ Tues. night and 0.14″ Weds. The GFS-plot gives G.R. 0.41″ Tues., 0.01″ Weds., 0.51″ Thurs., 0.65″ Fri., 0.12″ Sat./Sat. night and 0.19″ Sun. It then finally turns us a dry, cooler and less humid from around the 23rd to 28th. It takes us into the mid-upper 80s. Tues. to Thurs., but doesn’t give us a 90° through the end of the month.

There is STILL a patch of snow on the Mt. Ripley webcam! Wettest 24-hours ever in Sioux Falls SD, official 24-hour rainfall was 4.65″. Old record: 4.59″, 8/1/1957. I was kind of surprised the old record wasn’t a little higher. KA-BOOM! International Falls MN has seen its wettest June to date and their wettest start to a year. As of today at 5 pm June 15th, International Falls has received 7.61 inches of rain. The previous highest amount for June 1-15 was 5.66 inches in 2002. Since January 1st, 16.43 inches of precipitation has fallen. The previous highest amount was 14.61 inches in 1941.

CONCERN IS GROWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL FEATURE AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /4000+ J
PER KG MLCAPE/ UPSTREAM OVER WI AND FAVORABLE PARALLEL SHEAR /0-3KM
30-40 KT/. THIS SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO WILL CROSS LAKE MI
AND MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE,,,,,,STAY CUEDDDD,for UPDATES…as NEEDED!!!!

Let’s review more FACTS. We have hit 80 or better 15 times already. There will be plenty more 80′s this week and throughout the summer. Where we live there hasn’t been snow on the ground for approximately 2 months. We are still above average for the month. Could be the warmest mini ice age in history. Just the FACTS. I love it. Fantastic. Get used to it. Who knew?

Been raining here for the last hour or so. Nice gently rain – no boomers. Mama turtle has decided to lay her eggs in our driveway. Not a safe place to raise a family. So tomorrow I’ll move the little eggs into a bucket filled with sand and then cover them up and wait and see what happens. Should be a lot of fun to watch them hatch. Then when they’ve hatched, I’ll take them to the White River here in town and let them go. So exciting!!! I’ll keep y’all posted on how this adventure turns out!!

Im placing a good bet that we are put under a slight risk for Tuesday, if not even a moderate risk, because of the Derecho Risk. The GRR NWS is really concerned about this…..and is watching this very closely!!!!!!!! It sure will be something to watch!!!!!!

It sure will be interesting to see what tomorrows outlooks will look like.

Way too early to place a bet on a moderate risk right now, I’m placing a bet on a slight risk with maybe a 30% hatched area but even that it too early. It’s going to be very interesting come the 2:30 and 3:30am updates.

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BRING STORMS INTO THE AREA A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT
BASED ON CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT…BUT SPC CALIBRATED SREF GUIDANCE AND
DIURNAL TIMING BOTH SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERALL MAY
ACTUALLY EXIST NORTH OF I-96.

CONCERN IS GROWING FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL FEATURE AN EAST-WEST AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY /4000+ J
PER KG MLCAPE/ UPSTREAM OVER WI AND FAVORABLE PARALLEL SHEAR /0-3KM
30-40 KT/. THIS SUGGESTS A PROGRESSIVE DERECHO WILL CROSS LAKE MI
AND MAINTAIN SOME INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
SINCE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT WITH THE
BOUNDARY AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE SEASONABLY HIGH AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST THAT BACKBUILDING CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Well hmmm , I don’t like the fact that the SPC is not in board for Tuesday yet , but I’m waiting to see tonight’s update from the NWS and check the SPC tomorrow after – work. I have to say it’s not looking all that impressive attm. ( I do like the expected ml cape ). If Tuesday is a bust then there goes my prediction out the winda…! Lol

If *I* was an employee at Mt. Ripley and was aware that all these people keep posting the webcam pictures of snow…..I’d drag an old white tarp up on that hill one night, and just mess with peoples’ minds “OMG!!! There’s still snow on the ground and it’s AUGUST!!!!!!!!”