Institute for Economic Competitiveness
College of Business Administration
University of Central Florida

Published December 2013

ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA (UCF)

ABOUT THE COLLEGE OF
BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION

Institute for Economic Competitiveness
College of Business Administration
University of Central Florida

F LO R I DA F O R E C A S T
2014 - 2017
December 2013 Report

Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness,
College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida
Copyright ÂŠ 2014 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved.

Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible
by the following staff:
Dr. Sean Snaith, Director
Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant
Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher
Melissa Hedtke, Researcher
Ashley Miller, Researcher
Casey Moore, Researcher
Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher
This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for
Economic Competitivenessâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results
could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic
Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible
as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for
Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and
the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are
prohibited.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DECEMBER 2013
FLORIDA FOR ECAST 2014 -2017
• Florida’s housing market is a very, very, very fine housing market.
• As of November, 43.6% of single-family transactions are cash sales. Will Mr. &
Mrs. Black be able to step in when Blackstone leaves? Rising interest rates and new
regulations will keep housing finance constrained.
• Payroll job growth year-over-year should average 2.0% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015,
2.2% in 2016, and 1.9% in 2017. It will be late 3rd quarter of 2016 before payrolls
recover to their pre-recession highs.
• Labor force growth in Florida will average 1.5% from 2014-2017. This will slow the
pace of decline for the unemployment rate (U-3) in the state. Labor force growth
will have averaged just 0.8% during 2010-2013 and is in part responsible for the
rapid pace of the decline in the unemployment rate during that time period.
• Unemployment rates have fallen from their peaks, in part due to a low labor force
participation rate (59.6% in November 2013), and they will continue to decline
through 2017. The pace of decline will moderate as labor force growth picks up.
Despite this headwind, the unemployment rate should hit 6.0% by the end of 2017.
• Underemployment (U-6) in Florida, a broader measure of labor market weakness
than headline unemployment (U-3), came in at an average of 14.6% for the year
ending 3rd quarter 2013. Down from 15.1% last quarter.
• The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth during 2014-2017
are Construction (8.6%); Professional and Business Services (3.7%); Trade,
Transportation & Utilities (3.5%); Education & Health Services (2.1%); and
Information (1.6%).
• Housing starts jumped in 2013. Total starts will be over 110,000 in 2014, just under
148,000 in 2015, hit 167,200 in 2016, and 168,400 in 2017. Average annual growth
in housing starts will be 33.4% during 2014-2017, with the largest growth in the
first half of that four-year span.
• Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 2.6% in 2014, then accelerate to
3.3% in 2015 and 2016 before easing to 3.0% in 2017. Average growth will be 3.0%
during 2014-2017.
• Real personal income growth for 2013 will have slowed to 1.4%. From 2014-2017
real personal income growth will accelerate and average 4.1%, with 2014 growth at
4.2% that will rise to 4.7% in 2017.
• Low inventories and rising house prices have triggered a surge in home
construction. Housing starts will average 33.4% growth during 2014-2017.
• Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.2% during 2014-2017.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

5

F lo r i d a S umma r y

FLORIDA’S HOUSING MARKET
Our Housing Market is a Very, Very, Very
Fine Housing Market
I have always loathed reading student’s papers that employ the
use of stating a dictionary’s definition: “Webster’s defines “X”
as …” I would say it is the equivalent of what my college fiction
writing professor <Insert joke about how that class still serves
me well in my current career here> used to say about writing
fiction where you describe one of your characters smoking – that
it is a sign that the author has run out of ideas and chooses this
cliché in the absence of having the character do or say something
interesting.

It is with her admonition in mind that I must elaborate a bit on
the title of this section. First it is a paean to Crosby, Stills, Nash
and Young and their 1970 song Our House1. Second it is a play
on the multiple definitions of the word fine. The two definitions
of this word that were in my mind as I wrote the heading are
the versions of the word that mean of high grade as in a fine
wine. The second meaning was fine as something delicate of
composition as in fine crystal ware.
How can Florida’s housing market be both high grade and
yet delicately composed? Well an examination of the data from
the housing market reveals a market where prices have risen
significantly, inventories have fallen to low levels, and sales have
climbed. These happenings have lifted many Floridians above
water in their mortgages for the first time in years. It has helped
restore billions of dollars in lost housing wealth, and it has sent
a strong signal to builders that more inventory is needed as
housing construction activity has surged in the state. All these
are indicators of a high grade housing market, yet housing in
Florida enters 2014 in a delicate condition as new regulations are
set to kick in, interest rates are set to rise as the Fed has taken its
first steps to tighten monetary policy, and the diminishing role
of cash investors raises questions about the sturdiness of Florida’s
housing recovery.
Data recently released by Florida Realtors depicts a housing
market that is getting hotter, if not overheating. Median sales
price for single-family homes increased $19,900 in November
year-over-year and now stands at $169,900. The townhome/
condominium market is also showing significant gains as
the median sales price increased $19,299 year-over-year and
registered $131,299 in November.

Inventories in November rose from their minimum level of 5.0
months supply back in the 2nd quarter of 2013 and are now 5.6
months, which is down from 5.7 months a year ago.
Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short
sales are continuing to contract year-over-year (-46.6%), but
foreclosure/REO sales are up versus November 2012 (10.7%),
and traditional sales were up 10.9% over the same time period.

1

Not to be confused with the 1982 song of the same name by English
pop group Madness.
6

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were
cash transactions stood at 43.6% in November, and for condos
that figure was even higher as 69.9% of all closings were cash.
Both of these markets shares of cash transactions have fallen over
the past 12 months, suggestive of a diminishing role of investors
in Florida’s housing market.
High levels of investor participation around the state is behind
these high percentages of cash transactions, with hedge funds
and private equity seeking both the high yields that the current
rental market provides and the expected capital gain when they
sell these properties down the road at a price above the purchase
price.

But the role of investors is starting to wane as evidenced by
a falling share of cash transactions. This should not come as a
surprise. These investors, as opposed to the flippers of the bubbleera, are driven by portfolio concerns. Portfolio decisions are a
function, in part, of the relative expected return on competing
assets. Real estate prices have been rising in Florida over the
past few years and this ironically makes housing in Florida a less
attractive investment by reducing the expected return of housing.
Higher sales prices lower the return both by decreasing the
rental yields and by reducing the size of expected capital gains
when investors seek to sell the home. Thus rising house prices in
the state make housing a less attractive investment, and we can
expect to see the share of cash transactions continue to decline
going forward as private equity seeks alternative investments.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Credit Availability
Index declined in November after ticking up in October, and it
currently stands at 110.2, down from September when it stood
at 110.7. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March 2012,
and to get a sense how far the housing finance has fluctuated,
if the index had been tracked in 2007 the Mortgage Bankers
Association estimates it would have had a value around 800.
While standards in 2007 were clearly too lax, current availability
of mortgage financing is just 14% of what it was back then and
are likely too tight to allow a smooth transition from an investor
driven to traditional buyer driven housing recovery.

New regulations on qualified mortgages, part of the massive
Dodd-Frank financial regulation law, are set to kick in early
2014. This may be a roadblock for expanded mortgage availability
as some estimates suggest that 20% of existing mortgages would
not have qualified under the new regulations. Uncertainty
surrounding this law and its flawed rollout and implementation
will continue to weigh on the financial sector in general, and
specifically could further constrain the mortgage market making
housing finance an increasingly difficult proposition.
Figure 1, below, depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing
single-family homes, as well as the 12-month moving average
of these sales. Sales have been on an upward path from their
bottom in early 2008, and while the overall trend has been
upward, monthly sales have wobbled at times. The economic
and demographic underpinnings of the housing market in
Florida are strengthening. Job growth in Florida is outpacing the
subdued labor market recovery nationally, and a cold winter thus
far coupled with the aging of the Baby Boomers bodes well for

F lo r i d a S umma r y

population growth in Florida. As this foundation for a healthy
housing market continues to congeal, we can expect that the
upward trend in sales will continue, provided housing finance
begins to normalize. If the housing finance situation remains
tenuous this trend will likely flatten in the next few years, but
longer run drivers are still pointing toward rising sales.

Figure 2, below, displays median sales prices for single-family
existing homes. Housing prices did not follow the consistent
upward trend that we saw in sales. Median sales prices did
not bottom out until 2011, but since then prices have been on
an upward climb. One thing is clear, the recent double-digit
pace of price increases is unsustainable. Over the past year, the
12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by
nearly $20,000, up 13.3% from a year ago. This recovery in
the housing market is an essential part of Florida’s continued
economic recovery, and if this momentum can be at least partially
sustained, it will continue to boost economic growth over the
next several years.
Homeowners are still well below the levels of home equity
wealth they had seen at the peak of the housing market (median
prices are currently $87,900 below the 2006 peak of $257,800),
but rising prices have allowed many homeowners to resurface
after being trapped in mortgages that were for years underwater.
Whether these repairs to consumer’s balance sheets will lead
to a boost in consumer spending growth is not clear yet. My gut
feeling is that while this is helpful, it will not erase the impact
on the consumer psyche and our “mini-age of austerity” will
continue.

The housing market in Florida has taken great strides in
recovering from deep and protracted depression, but the road
ahead for the Florida housing market is not without pitfalls. The
state still has a long journey ahead of it before we can declare that
the sector has fully recovered.
If the availability of housing finance does not improve, and

if the share of cash transactions continues to fall, demand for
housing will be constrained, and this will sap the strength out of
the housing market’s recovery. In 2014 we will likely see the signs
of this weakening begin to manifest themselves in the form of
slower price appreciation and slower sales growth.

OU TLOOK FOR FLO R I DA
201 4- 201 7
FLORIDA’S ECONOMY WOULD BE FLYING
HIGHER IF ECONOMIC POLICY WAS NOT
SUCH A DOWNDRAFT
Population growth. Check. Housing market rebounding.
Check. Job growth faster than the nation. Check. Unemployment
rates below national average. Check. The forecast for Florida’s
economy is forecasted to grow under 3.0% in 2014?
Surely I can’t be serious?

I am serious, and don’t call me Shirley.

If the national economy existed in the movie Airplane!, then
the economic policy we have watched unfold over the past several
years might make sense. It would all be part of one punch line
laden big screen comedy. Unfortunately, the joke is on us, and
a poisonous atmosphere of policy uncertainty that has choked
off this recovery for much of the 54 months of its existence still
persists and is still toxic with little indication that it will quickly
dissipate in 2014.
Granted some sources of uncertainty have been partially
resolved--a deal was reached to avoid yet another government
shutdown--but the looming debt ceiling is another potential
source of short-run fiscal policy uncertainty. Recent economic
data including a 4.1% growth rate for real GDP in the 3rd quarter

Figure 2.

Figure 1.

Florida

Florida

Single Family, Existing Homes
30000

25000

Single Family, Existing Homes
$300,000

Realtor Sales Total
Moving Average

$250,000

20000

$200,000

15000

$150,000

10000

$100,000

5000

$50,000

0

$0

Source: Florida Realtors

Median Sales Price Dollars
Moving Average MHP

Source: Florida Realtors
Institute for Economic Competitiveness

7

F lo r i d a S umma r y

and in addition to that several other pieces of data suggest the 4th
quarter may be stronger than most were anticipating.

These are all positive developments, but they do not negate the
remaining sources of policy uncertainty, and we have seen in this
recovery bursts of economic activity that ultimately give way to
a return to subpar growth. Real GDP grew at a 4.9% in the 4th
quarter of 2011 followed by a 3.7% growth rate in the 1st quarter
of 2012. Two back-to-back quarters of strong growth to be
sure, but over the following three quarters of 2012 the economy
expanded at an average annualized quarterly growth rate of just
1.4%.

So forgive me if I do not raise a toast to the start of a new phase
of robust growth in the U.S. economy that is here to stay. To a
long awaited period of actual recovery that will lift all boats with
its rising tide of prosperity. I’ve seen this movie before and that
is not what follows this current scene of positive economic data
reports. I know the villain awaits us in 2014 and the uncertainty
of the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank regulatory reform, and
what path the Fed will follow as it unexpectedly took its first step
in its taper of bond purchases in December are a cabal conspiring
to suck out the wind that currently is providing the economy with
its lift.
In our latest U.S. forecast2 we wrote yet again about how these
policies are creating more problems than they solve, and that
the disastrous and piecemeal rollout of both the Affordable Care
Act and the less reported on Dodd-Frank regulatory reform
law actually thicken the fog of uncertainty that envelopes the
economy. So no need to rehash that discussion in the Florida
forecast, but despite the positive things that we see happening
in Florida’s economy it does not operate in a vacuum free of the
effects of this uncertainty, and the growth we are forecasting for
the state will happen in spite of this environment. If the sunshine
state were free from the restraints of policy uncertainty that will
remain in place in 2014, growth would undoubtedly be much
more robust.
We just got another change to the Affordable Care Act from
the Whitehouse.
What is it?

It’s a big building where the President works, but that’s not
important.

GROSS STAT E P R O D U C T
As discussed above, Florida’s economic recovery has been
constrained by policy uncertainty. Real Gross State Product
(RGSP) growth in Florida turned barely positive in 2010 as the
economy finally, albeit hesitantly, emerged from recession. The
0.3% year-over-year growth in 2010 stayed lackluster in 2011
when the economy expanded by only 0.9%. To put that growth
in perspective, average growth over the 9 years leading into the
recession was 4.5%. The peak year for growth during that span
was 2005 as the economy grew 6.2%, fueled by the unsustainable
2

2012 and 2013 represent a significant improvement over 2010
and 2011, but hardly qualify as robust growth. We expect the
economy expanded at 2.6% in 2012 and will expand at 2.4% in
2013.

In 2013, rising consumer confidence, a housing market
recovery making significant progress, and the ongoing labor
market recovery helped buttress the foundation for economic
growth in the state. These improvements in such essential areas of
the state’s economy should finally help generate faster growth in
2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 when Real GSP is expected to grow
2.6%, 3.3%, 3.3%, and 3.0% respectively. This is a faster pace of
growth, but still not the hearty growth Florida has experienced
in the past. If policy uncertainty were to resolve itself (unlikely
at this point) one could easily envision growth at least a full
percentage point higher than currently forecasted.
Housing prices have made a strong upward movement
from the depths of despair in the housing crisis, and this price
appreciation has helped to repair the damage to Floridians’
balance sheets. It will take many more years to recover what was
lost as the housing market collapsed. The increase in house prices
lifted more and more mortgage holders in the state above the
surface of the water for the first time in several years, providing
much needed financial breathing room. Getting above water in
their mortgage restores mobility, and household decisions about
spending or saving out of current income will begin to slowly lean
again toward consumption. It remains to be seen, as discussed
above, whether or not the recovery in the housing market can
maintain momentum in 2014; if it does it will be a critical source
of economic growth for Florida.
Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach $972.0
billion in 2017. The state will cross the trillion-dollar threshold
for nominal GSP in 2018. Improving demographic trends,
specifically faster rates of domestic in-migration to Florida as
Baby Boomers’ retirements, delayed for many by the financial and
housing crises are now also stoked by what is turning out to be a
cold and snowy winter in the north, get back on track. Continued
international immigration to the state will also help feed the
state’s population and economic growth.
The elements necessary to form the compound of a stronger
economy in Florida are finally coming into place. If only the
policy environment were more of a catalyst and less an inhibitor
to the forming of bonds between these elements, the outlook
for Florida’s economy would be much rosier. Unfortunately
the reverse alchemy practiced in Washington D.C. makes the
likelihood of any such catalyzation improbable.

P E RS O NAL INCO M E , RETA I L
SALE S , AND AUTO SALES
Personal income growth in Florida lost a bit of momentum
in 2013 as the sequester spending cuts, payroll tax increase, and
dividend payments dropped off as many companies paid 2013
dividends at the end of 2012 to avoid rising dividend tax rates.

F lo r i d a S umma r y

Looking forward, momentum in personal income growth will
return in 2014 and persist through the end of 2017. Year-overyear growth decelerated in 2012 and 2013, but personal income
growth will surge in 2014 with growth of 5.6%, and will continue
to expand in 2015 when it is expected to grow 5.1%, and from
there it will accelerate in 2016 when growth will be 5.7% and
further rise to 6.2% in 2017. Personal income growth in Florida
trailed national rates of growth in 2011 and 2012. But in 2013,
the year we dubbed the “crossover year” named for the fact that
we forecast Florida to go from trailing the national recovery to
surpassing it, Florida is expected to have outpaced the nation
with personal income growth that is an average of 0.9% higher
than the national average growth through 2017. Personal income
growth during 2014-2017 will average 5.6%. Personal income
will reach in excess of $1 trillion in 2017, a year that will see
personal income grow $59.6 billion.
Real disposable income growth increased by 1.9% in 2012. In
2013, disposable income growth will average 1.1% as growth was
hampered by higher payroll taxes, spending cuts, the government
shutdown, an inconsistent recovery, and uncertainty. Average
growth during 2014-2017 however will be a more robust 4.1%.
Increasing tax burdens at the federal level will continue to be a
drag on disposable income over the forecast horizon and beyond.
Addressing the nation’s fiscal problems will not consist solely
of spending cuts, and these problems will ultimately necessitate
structural change to entitlement programs as well as higher tax
burdens for more than just income earners in the highest tax
bracket. There are also higher taxes embedded throughout the
Affordable Care Act, and they too will also erode disposable
income in future years, if they are enacted.
Financial markets have fully recovered from the financial
crisis, thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank’s
historically easy monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009, but has since
surged back above the 16,000 level. The bond market also had a
bull run, though that run will be reversing itself in the years to
come as the Fed’s exit strategy plays out.
As a result, financial assets held by U.S. households have
values that are $24.3 trillion higher than pre-crisis levels.
Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for home equity wealth
held by America’s households, which is still over $3.5 trillion
lower than in 2005, but still has made sizable progress from the
low point of the housing crisis.

The housing market in Florida has not recovered as rapidly
as financial markets have, but housing prices are rising now at a
double digit pace. The $3.5 trillion dollars in home equity lost
nationwide could take many years to recover. In Florida, this
negative wealth effect will continue to weigh upon consumer
spending through the end of 2017. However, continued home
price appreciation will work to ease the balance sheet burden on
Florida’s consumers, provided that this price appreciation will
be sustained as institutional investors continue their exit from
Florida’s housing market.

The wealth effect on consumption spending is much more
powerful for housing wealth than it is for financial asset wealth
according to empirical analyses of these relationships. But one
need not look at scientific literature to discern this fact, the
anecdotal evidence of a boom stock market and a sputtering
economic recovery illuminates this fact.

Florida’s persistently high unemployment and even higher
underemployment also compound the effects of lost housing
wealth to weigh on consumer spending in Florida. As the labor
market in Florida continues to improve with private sector job
creation accelerating, it will boost consumer confidence and
spending. The labor market, as it continues its slow healing
process, will become more of a driver of consumer spending
rather than a drag on consumption spending.

Retail sales in Florida grew at 5.2% in 2012. Part of that
growth was due to higher gasoline prices, but it also reflected the
ongoing release of pent-up demand by Florida’s consumers and
tourists, both domestic and international. As the labor market
recovery builds momentum and home equity is restored, retail
spending will begin to recover across a broad array of sectors in
the economy. The average year-over-year growth rate of retail
sales will be over 4.2% during 2014-2017. In 2013, year-over-year
growth should end up 4.7%.

Although retail sales growth will not reach the levels seen
during the height of the housing and economic boom fueled
consumer purchases, Florida’s continued economic recovery will
boost sales tax revenues and provide more budgetary options in
Tallahassee. Hopefully this windfall will be plowed back into
the state with higher levels of support for public investment in
infrastructure and education. This is spending that promises an
economic return for the state in future years in a way that tax cuts
or rebates cannot.
When the economy first stabilized and then began to recover,
consumer’s replacement needs and pent-up demand drove
light vehicle sales higher. This replacement demand has been
reflected in national sales data as relative stability in the economy,
even with the disappointingly slow pace of the recovery, has
powered consumer’s light vehicle demand. Vehicle registration
growth in Florida will be relatively healthy during 2014-2017,
averaging around 4.1%, though it has decelerated significantly
from double-digit growth in 2012 and 2013 that averaged over
12.5%. In 2017, Florida new passenger car and truck registrations
will reach nearly 1.31 million, representing an increase of over
600,000 registrations from the 2009 bottom (707 thousand), but
still below the peak level of registrations during the height of
the housing boom of 1.45 million in 2005, despite the fact that
Florida’s population in 2017 will be nearly 3 million higher than
it was in 2005.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

9

F lo r i d a S umma r y

EMPLOY ME N T
Gubernatorial Ghost Hunting3
In 2010 Governor Rick Scott was elected on a campaign
platform consisting of seven steps that he pledged would lead to
the creation of 700,000 jobs in seven years. Last Florida & Metro
Forecast we began assessing whether or not this promise would
come back to haunt his campaign for re-election. We concluded
that as far as ghosts are concerned this promise was a friendly
ghost a la Casper.
So how is the governor’s jobs promise holding up at this point
in the seven-year time frame? In January 2011, Florida payroll
employment was 7,230,300 and in November 2013 payroll
employment was 7,627,400 for a gain in payroll employment of
397,100 jobs. The governor has reached 56.7% of the 700,000 job
target 41.7% through his seven-year plan. By the time the 2014
election comes around, we project that payroll employment will
have expanded by roughly 500,000 jobs and by the end of 2015
the 700,000 jobs target will be hit, 3 years ahead of the seven
year timeline.
The acceleration of the progress made on the jobs pledge was
helped by strong payroll gains this October and November when
Florida added 53,100 jobs in just two months.

Despite the headwinds from the national economic and policy
environment, Florida’s labor market continues to grow at a faster
pace than the national job market. In 2012, job growth was 1.8%.
In 2013, the labor market will continue its expansion with job
growth roughly the same amount. Payroll job growth will reach
2.0% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015 and 2016 before easing to 1.9% in
2017. Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over
the entire forecast horizon by an average of 0.6 of a percentage
point.
The Construction sector, battered by the housing market’s
collapse, suffered job losses over 5 straight years at an average
annual rate of -12.9%. Job growth returned again in 2012 and
will build momentum over the next couple years before hitting
double digits in 2015 and 2016.

Construction job growth is expected to surge to 8.6% in 2014,
12.4% in 2015, and 11.8% in 2016, before easing back to 7.1% in
2017. Average annual job growth during 2014-2017 will be 8.6%.
The double-digit pace of employment growth in 2015-2016 may
be somewhat misleading given these growth rates are calculated
from a dramatically depleted base of employment in the sector.
In 2017, employment in this sector should be back at a number of
jobs near June 2008 levels.
3

In the October 2013 Florida & Metro Forecast the calculation of
Governor Scott’s progress on his campaign promise of 700,000 jobs in
7 years was mistakenly based on January 2010 payroll data, the
Governor did not take office until January 2011. The calculation of
progress on his jobs pledge thus should have been that the Governor is
44.8% toward the 700,000 jobs promise 38.1% through the 7 year
horizon. Thank you to Jeff Ostrowski of the Palm Beach Post for
bringing this to our attention.
10

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

The Professional and Business Services sector will be the
state’s second fastest growing sector on average through 2017,
behind Construction. Job growth in this sector is expected to be
healthy, averaging 3.7% during 2014-2017. Job gains here in the
first four years of Florida’s recovery averaged 2.5%, but the next
four years will see improved growth. After three years of more
modest growth, job growth will accelerate and reach 4.1% in
2014 and 4.85% in 2015, before easing to 3.4% in 2016 and 2.9%
in 2017. This sector will recover quickly and will get back to prerecession peak levels of employment by the beginning of 2015.

The Information sector continued to lose jobs at the start
of 2013. Ongoing structural changes in the industry are a
persistent disruptive force as technology and the gathering
and delivery of information rapidly evolve. The production of
content is becoming more widely dispersed. The traditional
publishing industry will be stagnant and the print news industry
continues to evolve under tremendous pressure. Whether or
not this pressure ultimately creates a diamond or just fossilized
remnants of what once was is still uncertain. Other sources of
growth within this sector, such as software development and data
processing, will help compensate for the loss of jobs in legacy
industries.
Mild job growth returned to the Information sector year-overyear in 2013, the first year of job growth in this sector in seven
years. After 1.3% growth in 2014, job growth will further rise to
2.3% in 2016 and 2.4% in 2017, averaging growth of 1.6% during
2014-2017.

The Education and Health Services sector has consistently
grown throughout the recession into the recovery and is expected
to continue to grow through the end of 2017. During 2014-2017,
employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average
rate of 2.1%. Employment growth in the education side of the
sector will be boosted as school districts enjoy higher revenues as
a result of rising housing prices and property tax based revenue
that fund Florida’s K-12 school districts. Lags between the
recovery in housing values and the recovery of school budgets will
have passed and in the next couple years hiring will reflect this
budgetary relief.
Uncertainty regarding the Affordable Care Act’s ultimate
impact on healthcare in the nation continues to mount. The
technical failures of the healthcare exchanges are a devastating
development to the rollout of the law, but may only reveal the
tip of the iceberg as far as the viability of the law itself. These
exchanges are a cornerstone of implementing federal healthcare
reform. However, with some degree of expanded coverage as a
result of the law and the aging of our already older than average
population, the demand for health services in Florida should
remain strong. This demand will continue to drive job growth in
the Health and Education sector.

Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an
average rate of 1.4% in 2012, and in 2013 growth wavered as the
domestic and global economic environments have weakened. The
weakening of expansions in emerging economies and ongoing
struggles in Europe will drive job growth temporarily negative in

F lo r i d a S umma r y

the manufacturing sector as exports falter and the sector contracts
at -0.3%.
After stumbling in 2013, we are expecting to see job growth
of 2.0% in manufacturing for the full year in 2014, followed by
another year of mild job growth in 2015, when manufacturing
employment will expand at a rate of 1.4%. Manufacturing is
expected to continue to limp along in 2016 when job growth is
expected to be just 0.3%, and the sector returns to its long-run
trend of job losses in 2017 when employment contracts 0.4%.

The State & Local Government sector is still constrained by
revenues streams that are improving but were slammed by the
recession and housing crisis. This budgetary tightness runs from
the state level down to counties and small cities. Consequently,
job losses will persist in the State and Local Government sector
through 2013 when growth will be -0.4%. From that point,
growth will turn weakly positive and average 0.6% during 20142017. As Florida’s population and economy continue to expand,
the demand for state and local government services will grow as
well, and employment growth will be part of the solution to the
expanding demands of a growing economy. Government will
remain cautious in hiring; the bloody budgetary slashing still
fresh in the memories of Mayors and County Administrators
alike will keep the pace of job growth subdued through the next
several years.

Federal Government employment growth in the near term may
be bolstered in 2014 by frantic hiring to address the problems
and complexities associated with the rollout of the Affordable
Care Act. The first year of sequester spending cuts have been
partially alleviated by the recent budget deal, but the government
shut down and debt ceiling battle nearly tripled the pace of job
losses in 2013 from 2012. We are still awaiting a long-term
solution to our federal deficit and debt problems; ultimately cuts
in federal spending will be necessitated. Job losses are expected to
reappear in 2016 and beyond as the U.S. begins to come to grips
with controlling budget deficits and a ballooning national debt.
Federal Government employment in Florida will contract at an
average rate of -0.8% during 2015-2017.

U NE MPLOY M E N T
The unemployment rate in Florida remains elevated, and
stands at 6.4% as of November 2013. Unemployment has fallen
substantially from its peak and, after many years above the
national rate of unemployment, Florida’s unemployment rate
is 0.6 points lower than that of the nation as a whole. On the
surface this may appear to be nothing but good news for the labor
market in the state. However, a deeper look at the data reveals
some problems in this superficial appraisal. The biggest is that
these declines in the unemployment rate have been in a large part
driven by a shrinking labor force participation rate that stood at
59.6% in November 2013 and 59.8% in August 2013, both down
from 60.3% in May. The national labor force participation rate
stood at 63.0% in November 2013, the lowest since April 1978.
Lower headline (U-3) unemployment rates can be deceiving if
given just a cursory glance, particularly if you don’t understand

the underlying factors that are driving the decline.

Heavy-duty economic growth is necessary to quickly bring
down the unemployment rate for the right reason: people who
are out of work finding jobs. We have not experienced the type
of growth in Florida’s economy that is capable of little more
than gradually reducing the unemployment rate. However the
shrinking labor force participation rate is doing much of the
heavy lifting of bringing down this headline unemployment rate.
The unemployment rate in Florida stood at 6.4% in November
2013, a 5.0 point decline from the peak level of unemployment in
2010.
We are forecasting stronger economic growth in Florida
over the forecast horizon. The labor market will need stronger
growth to continue to drive meaningful declines in the rate of
unemployment that to date have been by and large driven by a
shrinking labor force participation rate. This faster economic
growth, though, will be faced with a headwind of a rising labor
force participation rate that will make progress in reducing the
unemployment rate a more challenging task. We expect the
labor force to grow faster during 2014-2017, and this will have a
net result of far more modest declines in unemployment rates in
Florida during these years.
The labor force in Florida is expected to grow an average of
1.5% during 2014-2017. That compares to an average growth
rate of just 0.8% during the four years prior. As a result, the
unemployment rate is expected to continue a very gradual,
drawn-out decline that will push it down to 6.0% by the end of
2017.

This problem of underemployment and marginally attached
workers—those who are working part-time but not by their
choice, and those who are neither working nor looking for
work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and
have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months—
remains significant. When adding these workers to the top-level
unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment,
known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets,
and it averaged 14.6% for 4Q 2012 through 3Q 2013 in Florida,
according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While U-6 is down
from its previous reading of 15.1%, this is a grimmer picture
of the state of the labor market in Florida than reflected in the
current headline unemployment rate of 6.4%.
Underemployment nationally and in the state may bear
watching in the years to come. There have been indications
that companies may rely more upon part-time workers to fill
their labor needs to avoid the costs of providing healthcare
or the penalties for not doing so for full-time employees.
This assumes that the already delayed employer mandate
actually is implemented on the ever adjusting timeline for the
implementation of the Affordable Care Act.

F lo r i d a N ews S umma r ies
Florida in top 25 for business climate
• Florida ranked no. 13 business climate in the
nation in Site Selection’s 2013 Top 25 State
Business Climate study. Executives surveyed
ranked Florida at #5. The survey was based on
many categories, including tax burden, business
growth activity, and a survey of corporate site
selectors.
• Florida ranked #9 in new plants for 2013, #19 in
mature firm tax index, #21 in competitiveness,
and #36 in new firm tax index.
Source: The Orlando Business Journal, November 5, 2013
Florida No. 3 for bank branch losses
• SNL Financial produced a study that stated
Florida is one of the leading states for bank
branch closures.
• During the year ending September 30, the state
had a net loss of 79 branches. Florida currently
has 5,635 branches. Nationwide, banks closed
1,343 branches during the same time period.
Source: The Jacksonville Business Journal, November 11, 2013
Weak Orange Crop Forecast Juices OJ Prices
• Florida’s citrus groves are being attacked by a
bacterial disease that is threatening to reduce
the crop to the lowest it has ever been in 25
years.
• OJ Futures jumped more than 7% on November
8, which will trickle all the way down to the
shelf price for orange juice. Futures ended that
week at an eight-week high.
• Citrus greening and freezing temperatures are
the biggest threat to this year’s orange juice
crop.
Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2013
Health premiums vary by county
• A USA TODAY/Gannett analysis of federal
data showed that Florida’s citizens will be
among the states with the widest price disparity
in terms of insurance plans purchased on the
federal HealthCare.gov website.
• Some insurers will not offer plans in every
county, which is why the prices differ. About
25% of Florida residents younger than 65 are
uninsured.

• Lack of competition in rural areas may increase
prices for health insurance plans. Florida Blue
operates in all 67 counties, and competes with
eleven other insurers.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, November 27, 2013
Amendment looks to limit sprawl, protect water and
wildlife
• Voters may be voting on an amendment to
apportion funds from real estate transactions
toward buying and saving land critical to
conserving water and wildlife health.
• Florida’s Water and land Legacy looks to
allocate this existing tax into a fund specifically
for this cause, and keep it out of the General
Revenue Fund. By 2015, the Legacy estimates it
will have $648 million, and in 2034, it will have
$1.268 billion.
• 357,027 voters have already signed, but the
petition still needs 326,122 by February 1.
Source: Tallahassee Democrat, December 2, 2013
Orlando Health, MD Anderson end 23-year cancer
agreement
• University of Florida will be the new ally of
Orlando Health. Orlando Health’s organization
combined with University of Florida’s research
and treatment capability will allow the team to
treat the overwhelming amount of Floridians
with cancer.
• Patients will be treated by the same staff and
doctors that practiced before the merger. Dr.
Mark Roh will remain as president of this new
partnership.
• Cancer is the leading cause of death in Florida,
surpassing heart disease.
Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 16, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

27

METROS

Decembe r 2 013

FLORIDA FORECAST

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach MSA is
comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the
east coast of Florida and is notable for special events
that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It
is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona
International Speedway which hosts popular races such
as the Daytona 500.

The Deltona–Daytona–Ormond Beach Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels
of growth in most of the economic indicators measured
in this forecast. Personal income is expected to
average 5.2 percent growth, while the real per capita
income level will average $32,300. Average annual
wage will be the lowest level of the studied areas at
$41,100. Average annual wage growth is expected to
be moderate at 3.3 percent. Population growth will
average 1.1 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an
average level of 11,762.18 million dollars.

The employment growth rate is expected to average
1.5 percent each year. Unemployment will average 7.0
percent, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs.
The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth
in the Construction and Mining sector, with an
average growth rate of 8.7 percent annually. The
Professional and Business Services sector will see the
second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at
3.3 percent annually. The Information sector follows
with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent.
The Financial sector is the only sector expected to
experience a decline at -0.3 percent each.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Business Snapshot

• Florida Hospital Fish Memorial reopened a
“progressive care unit” on December 2. It will
treat patients that are less critical than ICU
patients, but still need more attention than
regular nursing floors.
• Fish Memorial will also add telemetry
monitoring units to take care of patients. The
unit will provide more privacy to patients, as
well as alleviate some of the resources of the
emergency department.

Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, December 15, 2013

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

29

Deltona – Da y tona B each – O r mon d B each

Beachside Howard Johnson sold

• The 46-room Howard Johnson hotel was sold
for $1.8 million to Topaz Eagles LLC, a Port
Orange real estate investor. The company also
owns the Quality Inn on Ormond Beach.

• The buyer says he is moving onto storage
facilities now, but will continue to operate the
Quality Inn and the Howard Johnson as hotels.

• An unprecedented number of Indian River
Lagoon wildlife has died over the past year.
60% (47,000 acres) of sea grass has vanished and
record algae blooms have occurred.
• Experts believe the biggest threats to this
lagoon are from the construction and pollution
that has been occurring for decades. The total
annual economic impact of the Indian River
lagoon has been estimated at $3.7 billion
according to the St. Johns River Management
District. The Lagoon is home to commercial
and recreational fishing, tourism, research and
education.

• The District is committing another $3.7 million
over the next three years to investigate the
ecosystem.
Source: The Daytona Beach News Journal, Dec. 18, 2013

Federal Government
Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government
Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)
Total Housing Starts
Single-Family
Multifamily

6.9

7

7

7

7

7.1

7.1

7.2

7.1

7.1

7

7

7

7

3136
1944
1192

3540
2294
1245

3759
2438
1321

3921
2591
1330

4039
2720
1319

4061
2931
1130

4070
3118
951

4183
3164
1019

4271
3217
1055

4321
3256
1065

4394
3316
1078

4436
3337
1100

4418
3282
1135

4338
3216
1122

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

33

Gaines v ille

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and
Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to
the University of Florida and the Florida Museum
of Natural History, Florida’s official natural history
museum.

The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses
in the economic indicators. Personal income growth
will see an average of 4.8 percent growth. Real per
capita income level is expected to average $34,500.
Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.3
percent, while the average annual wage level will be at
$46,600. Population growth will average the lowest of
the studied areas at 0.4 percent annually. Gross Metro
Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs
at an average level of 9,414.97 million dollars.
Gainesville will see an average employment growth
rate of 1.1 percent annually, the lowest growth of the
MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain
the lowest average unemployment rate of the twelve
studied, at 5.0 percent.
The fastest growing sector in the area will be the
Construction and Mining sector, with an average
growth rate of 8.4 percent annually. This is followed by
the Professional and Business Services sector with an
average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent. The Federal
Government sector will experience a decline, with
average annual growth rates of -0.7 percent.

QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1,
2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 142,490 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 5.3% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 7,620 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• University of Florida – 14,723
• Shands HealthCare – 12,588
• Malcom Randall VA Medical Center – 4,317
• Alachua County School Board – 4,299
• City of Gainesville – 2,200
• Publix Super Markets, Inc. – 2,056
• North Florida Regional Medical Center – 1,700
• Nationwide Insurance – 1,300
• Alachua County Government – 1,120
• Santa Fe Community College – 796
Source: City of Gainesville, 2011

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Turkey Creek wants GREC shut down

• Citing concerns over noise, air pollution and
truck traffic, residents of the Turkey Creek Golf
and Country Club say they want the biomass
plant shut down.
• On Monday, the community’s homeowners’
association sent a letter to the Gainesville City
Commission asking the city to shut down the
Gainesville Renewable Energy Center, which is
privately-owned and has a 30-year contract to
sell power to the city.

• Residents of the community of more than 1,000
homes have been sending emails of complaint
over noise from the plant since August.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, September 30, 2013

34

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Gaines v ille

County collecting waste vegetable oil for biodiesel at
fairs
• Alachua County will collect waste vegetable
oil from food vendors at upcoming fairs and
festivals that it can use to produce biodiesel fuel.
• Likewise, these collection drums will be used at
the city of Gainesville’s Downtown Festival and
Art Show on November 16 and 17 as well as
at the Hoggetowne Medieval Faire, which will
run Jan. 25-26 and Jan. 31-Feb. 2, 2014.
• Alachua County Pollution Prevention Manager
John Mousa said the county collected roughly
150 gallons of waste vegetable oil from food
vendors at the fair.
• Next year, the county plans to work with even
more local festivals and fairs to broaden its
waste vegetable oil collection efforts. Over the
past two years, it has collected more than 700
gallons of the stuff from various community
events.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, October 31, 2013
UF gets board’s OK to spend $1 billion to hire 100
faculty

• The Florida Board of Governors has given
the green light to a plan for the University of
Florida to spend close to $1 billion to hire as
many as 100 new faculty over the next five years
to help achieve top-10 status nationally.
• UF is already among the top 10 public
universities in 22 categories identified by
President Bernie Machen but lags in seven
critical areas, four of them having to do with
faculty.

• The plan, outlined by Machen, calls for
investing $13.3 million in key areas and to
recruit faculty with national standing in those
areas.

• The law requires each university to submit a
five-year benchmark plan for board approval.
Each plan targets rankings on “key performance
metrics for national excellence,” the Board of
Governors said.

Local firm Anamar gets 10-year maritime contract
• Gainesville-based Anamar Environmental
Consulting was awarded a 10-year contract
with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration to monitor tide, current and
water level data in U.S. waters.

• Tasks under the contract include monitoring,
assessing and distributing the data that NOAA’s
National Ocean Service Center for Operational
Oceanographic Products and Services provides
to the maritime industry.
• The company will provide depth data that
ships use to safely pass through seaports, under
bridges and across coastal bars, as well as data
used to provide real time and predicted storm
conditions and sea level rise.
• Anamar would not reveal the value of the
contract.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 5, 2013
Gainesville Company secures $800,000 to finance 3D
modeling software
• Gainesville-based Paracosm has secured
$800,000 in private and public funding to
advance its 3D modeling and navigation
software.

• The funding includes $300,000 -- announced
this week -- from the Institute for the
Commercialization of Public Research.
• Funding from the institute requires a private
funding match.

• Paracosm’s private funding includes $500,000
total from “angel” investors in Gainesville and
South Florida, and the Vegas Tech Nimbus
Fund, CEO Amir Rubin said.

• The company is developing software that uses
computer-aided design (CAD) to convert depth
cameras into 3D mapping systems.
Source: The Gainesville Sun, December 6, 2013

The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay,
Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the
northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major
U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air
Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North
Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport.

The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area
is expected to see moderate growth in most of the
economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs
studied. Personal income will see an average growth
rate of 5.7 percent. The real per capita income level is
expected to average $39,800, the second highest of the
twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth
is expected to be 3.2 percent, while average annual
wage level is expected to be $53,600. Population
growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of
1.4 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of
60,206.93 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July
1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of
July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of
July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of
July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823
as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 704,059 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 6.5% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 46,071 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is expected to average 2.0
percent annually. Unemployment will average 5.8
percent in the MSA.

The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville
MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will
see an average annual growth rate of 8.7 percent.
Following that sector is the Professional and Business
Services sector, with an average annual growth rate
of 3.2 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation,
and Utilities sector with an average growth rate of
2.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will
experience a decline with an average annual growth
rate of -0.3.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
PHH Mortgage will lay off 365 workers

• New Jersey-based PHH Mortgage will lay off
365 workers at their Jacksonville office location.
The worker’s last day will be December 2nd.
• The company, whose office is located at Gate
Parkway, will have 700 employees after the
layoffs. The layoffs are mostly in the loan
origination department.

• The Jacksonville offices opened in 2001,
originally planning to relocate its headquarters
to Jacksonville. Layoffs have been abundant in
the mortgage refinancing industry with Wells
Fargo and Bank of America also announcing
recent layoffs.
Source: Florida Times-Union, October 3, 2013
Institute for Economic Competitiveness

39

J ackson v ille

Haskell snags sixth multi-million Coast Guard
contract

• Haskell Co., based out of Jacksonville, was
awarded a $4.6 million design-build contract
to improve the infrastructure needed to
support fast response cutters at the Pascagoula,
Mississippi U.S. Coast Guard station.

• The company will renovate three support
buildings, work on the station’s piers, and
resurface the parking lot. Recently Haskell
completed a similar project at the Key West
Coast Guard station, and has four more similar
projects under contract across the country.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, October 22, 2013
APR buys GE unit for $314 million

• Jacksonville-based APR energy has agreed to
a deal to buy General Electric’s power rental
business.

• The $314 million deal will be made up of $250
million in APR stock and $64 million cash.
APR has 115 employees in Jacksonville, but
does its work overseas providing temporary
power plants in emerging African, Latin
American, and Middle Eastern markets.
• The GE unit is part of GE Power & Water
in Houston, which provides temporary power
generation through mobile gas turbines.
Source: Florida Times-Union, October 23, 2013
Jacksonville City Council approves $43 million in
upgrades at EverBank Field

• In a 14-2 vote, City Council members approved
spending $43 million in updates, including
adding the largest scoreboards in the world, a
revamped platform in the north end zone, and a
new scoreboard control room.
• Shad Khan, the owner of the Jacksonville
Jaguars, has committed to spending an
additional $20 million on the project.

• The funding from the city will come from the
6 percent hotel tax, of which 1/3 already goes
towards the stadium and other local athletic
40

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

venue improvements. The city will issue bonds
for its share, paying off approximately $3
million a year.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 12, 2013
Jacksonville economy continues fall down national
chart
• The Jacksonville economy, which was ranked
in the top 20 economies in the U.S. earlier this
year, has fallen to 42nd in November in the
latest On Numbers Economic Index.
• The index is designed to show the relative
economic strength of 102 major metros, and
is calculated once a month based on the latest
official statistics. The 18-part formula assesses
private-sector job growth, unemployment,
earnings, housing-price appreciation,
construction, and retail activity.

• Austin has led the list for the past three months,
and nine out of the last ten months.
Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, November 27, 2013

The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk
County. It is located in the western-center of the state
and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus.
Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida, and is
also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters.
Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at
Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland will soon welcome
Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of
the State University System.

The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)
is expected to show low-to-moderate levels of growth
in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is
expected to grow moderately at average of 5.2 percent
annually, while the real per capita income level will
average $32,400, the third lowest of the twelve MSAs.
Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.2
percent, and the average annual wage level is expected
to be at $46,100. Population growth is expected to
average 0.9 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will
be at an average level of 15,984.80 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011
(U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 269,152 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.7% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013.
This amounts to 21,025 unemployed people
(Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is expected to average 1.6
percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro
will average 7.2 percent, the second highest of the
twelve forecasted MSAs.
The Construction and Mining sector is expected to
be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging
8.5 percent annual growth. This is followed by the
Professional and Business Services sector averaging
2.9 percent annual growth, and the Information sector
averaging 1.9 percent. The Other Services, Financial,
and Federal Government sectors will all experience a
decline with an average annual growth rate of -0.1,0.1, and -0.7 percent, respectively.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Lockheed Martin Acquires Lakeland Facility for $7.2
Mil
• Lockheed Martin announced that it purchased
its Financial Services facility on South Parkway
Frontage Road. It had previously been renting
the facility.
• The office employs more than 375 people, and
has grown in recent years as Lockheed has
consolidated its financial operations, relocating
jobs to Lakeland.

• Lakeland based Publix Super Markets Inc.’s
third quarter profits came in at $359.9 million,
down 2.3 percent from Q3 2012. Total sales
were $7 billion, up 5.6 percent annually.

• Comparable-store sales—sales at locations open
for at least a year—increased by 4.1 percent.

• Publix announced expansion plans for another
store in the Charlotte, North Carolina area, and
stores in Asheville, Cary, and Winston-Salem.
The first North Carolina store is slated to open
in early 2014.
• Additionally, Publix plans to acquire seven BILO stores in North and South Carolina, and
enter new markets in North Myrtle Beach and
Pawleys Island, South Carolina.
Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 1, 2013
Florida’s Natural Growers Pull in Profit Shares

• Even facing a 3 percent decline in sales volume,
Lake Wales-based Florida’s Natural Grower’s
brand, grower-members still saw the thirdhighest profit share in company history.

• Over 1,000 Florida’s Natural growers received
$1.75 per pound for oranges and $1.60 for
grapefruit during the 2012-2013 fiscal year that
ended Aug 31.

• 470 homes were sold in October, 8 less than
October 2012, but up 5 percent from 448 homes
sold in September.
• Lakeland has 248 home sales in October, down
7.1 percent from last year, while East Polk has
198 home sales, a 5.3 percent increase from last
year.

• Florida saw a 6.5 percent increase from October
2012, while the US saw a 12.8 percent increase.
Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 20, 2013
Polk Jobless Rate Drops on a Dash of Job Growth
• Polk’s unemployment rate in October was 7.5
percent, down from 8.0 percent in September,
and 9.2 percent a year ago.

• There were 2,000 jobs added on an annual
basis, up 1.1 percent from September. Multiple
sectors contributed to the additions, including
retail, construction, manufacturing, tourism,
warehousing, and professional services.

• Professor of economics at Polk State College,
Gordon Kettle, does note, however, that after
adjusting for workers exiting the labor force, the
unemployment rate would be 8.5 percent.
Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 22, 2013

• The returns on oranges represented an 8 percent
decline from the 2011-2012 $1.90 per pound
2011-2012 season average, but a 3.2 percent
increase in grapefruit prices per pound from the
previous season.
• Despite the sales volume declines, Florida’s
Natural’s sales revenue for the year fell just 0.3
percent.
Source: Lakeland Ledger, November 11, 2013
Polk County Home Prices Up in October

• According to the Florida Realtors organization,
the October median sale price for single-family
existing homes in Polk County was $129,350,
up 14.5 percent from last year.
Institute for Economic Competitiveness

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach MSA
is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County,
and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast
of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami, the
largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation’s
busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports
teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat,
the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well
as many institutions of higher education including
the University of Miami and Florida International
University.

The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–Pompano Beach area
is expected to show moderate growth in the economic
indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an
average of 5.6 percent annually. The average real per
capita income level, at $41,500, is the second highest
in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth
will be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level
is expected to be $55,400, the highest of the studied
areas. Miami is expected to average a population
growth of 1.2 percent each year. The area has the
highest Gross Metro Product at an average level of
263,739.16 million dollars, the highest of the studied
MSAs.

QUICK FACTS:
• Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of
July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Miami-Dade County population estimate of
2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172
as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Palm Beach County population estimate of
1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 2,966,462 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 7.3% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 216,335 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Miami-Dade County Public School – 48,571
Miami-Dade County – 29,000
Federal Government – 19,500
Florida State Government – 17,100
University of Miami-16,000
Baptist Health South Florida-13,376
Jackson Health System – 12,571
Publix Super Markets – 10,800
American Airlines – 9,000
Florida International University – 8,000
Miami-Dade College – 6,200

Employment is expected to grow at an average
rate of 2.0 percent each year, while unemployment
is expected to be moderate at an average rate of 6.1
percent.

Miami’s fastest growing sector is expected to be the
Construction and Mining sector at an average of 10.1
percent annually, followed by the Professional and
Business Services sector at 3.7 percent each year. The
Financial sector is expected to experience a decline
with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

• The Florida Seaport Transportation and
Economic Development Council approved
a $16.5 million allocation of funds to Port
Everglades. The allocations, approved under two
state funding sources, will become part of the
Florida Department of Transportation’s 20142015 Work Program that will come before the
Florida Legislature during the next legislative
session.
• Bermallo Ajamil & Partners will conduct the
planning and design, after winning the award
October 1.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, October 4, 2013

Source: The Beacon Council
Institute for Economic Competitiveness

49

M iami – F o r t L au d e r d ale – P ompano B each

David Beckham wants soccer-only stadium for Miami
team
• It is rumored that David Beckham met with
billionaire Brightsar Corp. CEO Marcel Claure
and Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez on
the topic of soccer.
• Beckham’s last contract with Major League
Soccer allows him to purchase a franchise for
$25 million, and he will be basing his team out
of Miami.
• Beckham wants a soccer-only stadium in the
long run. Short term, the team could locate
to Marlins Park, with interest in housing the
team also coming from the Miami Dolphin’s
Sun Life Stadium and Florida International
University.

Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 13, 2013
Huge gift launches 5-story expansion at Cleveland
Clinic Florida
• Pauline Braathen, a patient at Cleveland Clinic
for more than a decade, made a $30 million
donation to help fund the new five-story,
143,000-square-foot building.
• The Egil and Pauline Braathen Facility will
house the Pauline Braathen Neurological
Center and a cancer center. The building has
broken ground, and should be completed by
February 2015, which will add much needed
extra space to the busy medical campus.

• The neurology expansion at Cleveland Clinic
Florida is part of an increased evidence of the
specialty in South Florida, which has seen the
Max Planck Florida Institute for Neuroscience
opening, FAU expanding its neuroscience
program, and Boca Raton Regional Hospital
creating the Marcus Neuroscience Institute.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, November 18, 2013

50

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Palm Beach County Convention Center hotel
construction begins

• City officials broke ground on the new 400room Hilton West Palm Beach at the Palm
Beach Convention Center hotel.

• The hotel, which has been in the works for
over a decade, will open in fall of 2015 and is
expected to add over 1,500 jobs and generate
$1 billion in economic activity over the next 10
years.

• The $100 million dollar project is being
developed by Related Cos., and will include two
ballrooms, eight conference rooms, and other
event space.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 9, 2013
South Florida leads nation in high-end foreclosures
• The Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach
metro area ranked first in foreclosure activity in
homes above the $5 million price range.

• This year South Florida has 47 high-end
properties in foreclosure, a 488 percent increase
from last year. Nationwide foreclosure activity
on $5million-plus homes has jumped 61
percent since last year. Florida and California
accounted for more than 60 percent of high-end
foreclosure activity.

• RealtyTrac suggests that the trend may indicate
lenders are now financially stable enough to take
a big-ticket loss on these properties, and that
the country’s improving housing market may
mean more potential buyers for these high-end
homes in the future.
Source: South Florida Business Journal, December 4, 2013

Federal Government
Pct Chg Year Ago
State & Local Government
Pct Chg Year Ago

Other Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate (%)
Total Housing Starts
Single-Family
Multifamily

6.6

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6

6

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.8

21266
8959
12308

22570
10696
11874

24229
11983
12246

26144
13413
12730

28579
14670
13909

30403
16442
13960

32814
18115
14699

34245
18726
15519

35353
19311
16042

36095
19810
16285

36960
20398
16562

37674
20704
16970

38296
20712
17584

37832
20303
17530

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

53

N aples - M a r co I slan d

PROFILES

OUTLOOK SUMMARIES

The Naples–Marco Island MSA is comprised of
Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of
Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure
activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the
“Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida”.

The Naples–Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical
Area (MSA) is expected to show strong growth in
the economic indicators. The metro area shows the
highest personal income growth among the studied
metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at an average
of 7.1 percent. Real per capita income level, which
is expected to average $58,800, is also the highest of
the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level
of $53,700. The average annual wage is expected to
grow at a rate of 3.6 percent. Population growth will
average 2.4 percent, the highest in the studied areas
and the Gross Metro Product level will be an average
of 15,426.86 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:
• Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011
(U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 150,522 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 6.4% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 9,775 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Naples Community Hospital – 4,000
• The Ritz-Carlton, Naples – 1,110
• Gargiulo, Inc. – 1,110
• Arthrex, Inc – 1,056

Employment growth is expected to average 3.4
percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The
metro will see an average unemployment rate of 6.9
percent.

The Construction and Mining sector represents
Naples’ fastest growing sector, growing at an average
rate of 8.4 percent each year. The Professional and
Business Services sector and Education and Health
Services sector follow with average growth rates of
4.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. None of the
sectors are expected to decline.

• They hope to build a complex on 60 acres in
Collier County. It would be built in three
phases, beginning with four soccer fields. Phase
two would be a 145,000 square-feet sports
center. The last phase would be a stadium.

• The commission chairwoman hopes to grow the
sports tourism industry in the county.
Source: Naples News, December 4, 2013

54

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

N aples - M a r co I slan d

Lee commissioners agree on $1.4M incentive to offer
to unnamed company
• Lee County commissioners agreed to offer
$1.48 million in a performance-based incentive
award.

• $1 million will be from the Financial Incentives
for Recruiting Strategic Targets Fund. The
fund was created in order to attract companies
into the county. The rest will be from the
State Qualified Target Industry Tax Refund
program.
• The company promises to bring 400 jobs and
build more than $20 million office building in
the county.

Naples Square rezone OK’d for Grand Central Station
property
• The old Grand Central Station property
downtown was approved for rezoning for the
new Naples Square. The new square will be a
300-unit residential development.

• The new development will consist of four family
residential buildings and commercial structures.
• The council was concerned with the
ongoing street maintenance and storm water
management, but the developers of the project
addressed the concerns.
Source: Naples News, November 20, 2013

Source: Naples News, November 19, 2013
Local Boys & Girls clubs to receive Radel salary while
he rehabs
• The Boys & Girls Clubs of Collier and Lee
County will divide the U.S. Representative
Trey Radel’s salary during his rehabilitation.
• The Representative is undergoing rehab in a
treatment center in Naples and promised to
donate his salary to charity.

• The money will provide scholarships to families
wanting to join the Boys & Girls Clubs.
Source: Naples News, December 3, 2013
Medical office complex near North Naples hospital
has new owner
• Collier Health Park’s mortgage was sold and
the title was transferred to new owners. The
new owner is McGuire Development Co. which
wanted the property as an investment.
• The company plans to keep the existing tenants
and fill the empty areas.
• The assessed value of the property is slightly
over $9 million. The new owners valued the
deal at more than $12 million.
Source: Naples News, December 4, 2013

Comprised of Marion County only; the Ocala MSA
is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the
center of the state. The second largest national forest in
Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs
are two main outdoor attractions in the area.

The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is
expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in
the economic indicators. Personal income growth is
expected to average 6.2 percent annually, the second
highest of the twelve metros. Real per capita income
level is the fourth lowest of the twelve metros at an
average of $32,400. Relative to other metro areas,
Ocala will have the second lowest average annual
wage level at $42,600. Average annual wage growth
is expected to be 3.5 percent, the third highest of the
MSAs. The metro has an expected annual average
population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro
Product is expected to average 7,043.98 million dollars,
which is the lowest of the studied areas.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S.
Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 134,257 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.8% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013.
This amounts to 10,506 unemployed people
(Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

• City of Ocala – 994
Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council

Employment growth is expected to average a rate
of 2.2 percent annually, the third highest of the
twelve studied MSAs. However, unemployment rate
is estimated to average 8.1 percent, the highest of the
researched areas.
The Construction and Mining Services sector
is expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala,
averaging an annual growth rate of 9.2 percent. This
is followed by the Professional and Business Service
sector and Education and Health Service sector with
4.3 percent and 2.3 percent average annual growth
rate, respectively. None of the sectors will experience
negative growth.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Dunellon Council votes to sell fiber optic venture for
$1 million
• In order to ease the pressure from high debt
due to Dunellon’s failed fiber optic Greenlight
Communications, the city council took steps to
sell the business.
• The council voted to accept a memorandum
of understanding agreement from Florida
Cable Inc. to sell it the Greenlight venture
for $1 million, even though this is about $7
million less than the city borrowed to start the
company.

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

59

O cala

• The council accepted the deal because prior
ones had fallen through, and the city continues
to lose money on the venture, to the point that
the city is at the edge of declaring a financial
emergency with the Florida state authorities.
If the deal goes through the city will be able to
make its next loan repayment and ideally will
renegotiate the loan to make it more affordable.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 4, 2013
Ocala/Marion CEP is partner in SBA ‘Microloan’
Program
• Marion County now has a “microloan” program
that is aimed at helping small business owners
having difficulty getting financing from
traditional lenders.
• The Ocala/Marion County Chamber &
Economic Partnership is joining with
underwriters Community Ventures Corp. of
Lexington, KY to offer U.S. Small Business
Administration loans through the new Ocala
Area Microloan Fund.

• These loans are not intended to compete with
banks and the small business loans they offer,
but to complement them. The loans will range
from $1,000 to $50,000 with a maximum term
of six years and can be put towards a variety
of uses by a business, determined by the U.S.
Small Business Administration.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, October 23, 2013
Commission to consider repealing development grant
• Citrapac, a maker of frozen fruit snacks,
planned on bringing more than 400 new jobs
to Marion, but has put its expansion plans on
hold. The expansion was a necessity because of
a pending deal with a national food company to
introduce one of its products to other U.S. and
overseas markets.

• A $225,000 economic development grant to
Citrapac Inc. was brought up to consider its
repeal as the expansion is no longer on schedule.

60

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

• Citrapac’s CEO has said the company is still
committed to moving its manufacturing
operations to Marion sometime next year and
plans to reapply for the grants once its plans are
finalized.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 18, 2013
Brazilian investor buys office complex on West SR 40
• DRS2 Galaxy, a LLC based in Deerfield
Beach, is headed by a Brazilian investor and
bought a 50,000-square-foot office complex for
$1.05 million.
• The investor plans to clean it up and market
space in the complex for lease.

• This is part of a dramatic increase in
international investment in Marion County that
has seen this year.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 7, 2013
Jobless professionals have new networking group in
Ocala
• Workforce Connection has launched a new
networking program, Professional Networking
Group (PNG) in Marion County that is
specifically for unemployed professionals.

• PNG will provide networking events, a support
system for jobless professionals, and offer
workshops on topics of interest to job-seekers,
such as resumes, interviews, goal-setting, and
social media.
• The program has already had 105 applicants
since launching in early October and at least
half of the applicants are already scheduled to
go into the program.
Source: Ocala Star Banner, November 24, 2013

The Orlando–Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake,
Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the
southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous
tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal
Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando
Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts
many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the
country and America’s second largest convention center. The
University of Central Florida, the nation’s second largest
university, and many other places of higher education also
reside in the MSA.

The Orlando–Kissimmee area is expected to show
moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal
income growth is expected to grow at an average rate
of 6.1 percent annually, the third highest of the twelve
MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to
average $33,800. Average annual wage growth will be
2.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs.
The average annual wage will be at a level of $48,000.
The Orlando MSA will see an average population
growth of 2.0 percent, the second highest of the
studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross
Metro Product is expected to average at 107,914.42
million dollars, the third highest of the MSAs.
Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.6
percent annually, the second highest of the MSAs. The
metro will see an average unemployment rate of 5.7
percent.
In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is
expected to be the Construction and Mining sector
with an average annual growth rate of 10.3 percent.
This will be followed by the Professional and Business
sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.9
percent, and the Education and Health Services sector
at 2.8 percent. None of the sectors will experience
negative growth.

QUICK FACTS:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (U.S.
Census Bureau).
Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for
2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development
Commission).
Orange County population estimate of 1,189,722
for 2012 (Metro Orlando Economic Development
Commission).
Osceola County population estimate of 275,010
for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development
Commission).
Seminole County population estimate of 429,169
for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development
Commission).
A civilian labor force of 1,149,963 in April of 2013 for
the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic Data).
An unemployment rate of 6.6% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 76,073 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).

• Before the government shutdown, the Pentagon
awarded contracts to Central Florida defense
contractors that are worth more than $500
million.
• The defense companies are not sure how much
of the actual awards will reach them because of
the government shutdown.

• Lockheed Martin Corp. received the most new
contracts. Lockheeds’s Hellfire Systems LLC
in Orlando received the largest pre-shutdown
contract.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, October 13, 2013

O r lan d o – K issimmee

Drop-in center for homeless good first step toward
emergency shelter
• Lake County is working to create a drop-in
center for the homeless. No emergency shelters
exist in the county as of now.
• The Lake Community Foundation and the
LifeStream Behavioral Center are working
together to create a new drop-in center for the
homeless.

• The center will provide meals, laundry, shower,
and an address to use for job applications.
Some people are hesitant about a drop-in center
because it may attract more homeless people,
but a study shows that it will not.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, December 1, 2013
Puerto Rican expo thrills thousands

• Kissimmee held a three-day expo and parade at
the Silver Spurs Arena for spectators to enjoy
the Puerto Rican culture.

• The Renaissance Planning Group of Orlando
was hired by county commissioners to look
at the future development in East Altamonte
around the station.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, December 1, 2013
Winter Park Construction awarded Crescent Central
Station contract
• Crescent Communities chose Winter Park
Construction to build the Crescent Central
Station in downtown Orlando.

• The development will cost $39 million with six
stories and 279 units.

• The building will begin to pre-lease by fall of
2014. It will include five stories of multi-family
units and ground-level retail.

• The future phases will include a hotel and office
buildings.
Source: Orlando Business Journal, November 26, 2013

• The event is in its third year and more than
40,000 people were expected during the three
days. One-third of the 900,000 Puerto Ricans
in Florida live in Central Florida.

• A group of volunteers with the nonprofit
organization Cultural Center of Puerto Rico in
Kissimmee organized the event.
Source: Orlando Sentinel, November 2, 2013
East Altamonte residents keep wary on new SunRail
station
• The SunRail commuter trains hopes to push
economic growth around the SunRail stations,
but this will also raise property values.

• Residents hope the station will bring new jobs,
but are nervous about the real estate values and
gentrification.
• Poorer residents are worried that they may be
forced out of their homes. The president of
South Seminole Community Association for
Progress shares the same concerns.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville MSA is
comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known
as “Florida’s Space Coast”, this area is home to the
Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part
of Florida’s east coast, the region is home to Cape
Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and
government contractors such as Harris Corporation.
Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port
Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port.

The Palm Bay–Melbourne–Titusville Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate
growth in the economic indicators. Personal income
growth is expected to average 5.5 percent each year.
Real per capita income levels should average $36,500.
Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8
percent, the highest of the studied areas. Average
annual wage levels should be at $54,100, the highest
of the twelve studied MSAs. Population growth is
expected to be an average of 0.9 percent, and the Gross
Metro Product level is expected to average 17,785.10
million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010
(U.S. Census Bureau).

• A civilian labor force of 267,490 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).

• An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013.
This amounts to 20,053 unemployed people
(Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.7
percent each year. The metro will see an average
unemployment rate of 6.8 percent.

Construction and Mining is expected to be the
fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 9.5 percent
growth annually. The Professional and Business
Services sector will see the second highest average
annual growth rate at 3.7 percent, followed by the
Education and Health Services sector at 1.7 percent.
Only the Federal Government sector will experience
negative growth, at an average of -0.6 percent annually.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Seminole County judge to preside over BlueWare
trials
• A judge from Seminole County — not Brevard
— will preside over the trials of former Brevard
County Clerk of Courts Mitch Needelman and
two BlueWare executives.
• Seminole County Judge Marlene Alva has taken
over the cases of Needelman, BlueWare Chief
Executive Officer Rose Harr and Matt Dupree,
a corporate vice president.
• Each defendant faces multiple felony charges
related to the awarding of an $8.52 million
contract last year to electronically scan court
documents.
• Prosecutors say the trio schemed to steer the
scanning contract to a BlueWare-affiliated
company in return for illegal contributions to
Institute for Economic Competitiveness

69

P alm B a y – M elbou r ne – T itus v ille

Needelman’s 2012 unsuccessful re-election
campaign.
Source: Florida Today, December 9, 2013
Size of Brevard school could become factor in future
closures
• If a half-cent sales tax does not pass next
November, the size of a school could be a factor
in whether it will be considered for closure.
• On November 19th, Brevard School Board
members briefly discussed proposed changes
to a policy governing the criteria for closing a
school.
• One possible change, to allow any school with
500 or fewer students to be considered, sparked
the ire of multiple school board members. That
makes it likely that the proposed language be
adjusted in some way.
• “The number should not be relevant,” School
Board Member Andy Ziegler said after the
board meeting. “The proper analysis should be
one of efficiency.”
• They’ve promised to make a list of possible
school closures available before next November.
Revisiting the policy is the first step.
Source: Florida Today, November 20, 2013
Neglected city roads getting TLC
• Long cracks, uneven gaps and missing asphalt
plague streets in the oldest sections of the city.
• They were neglected when property values and
tax revenue dropped, and the city scrambled to
balance its budget.
• The city plans to resurface more than a mile of
streets annually with federal money initially
intended to improve the exteriors of residences
and commercial buildings.
• More than $157,000 went unspent in a facade
program that had only one applicant qualify.
• The city will use that money to resurface more
than 6 miles of streets that haven’t been repaved
in 30 years.
Source: Florida Today, December 1, 2013

70

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Lighting Science ranks on Deloitte’s Technology Fast
500
• Lighting Science Corp., a designer and
manufacturer of LED lighting products, has
been ranked No. 204 on Deloitte’s Technology
Fast 500, a ranking of the 500 fastest growing
technology, media, telecommunications, life
sciences and clean technology companies in
North America.
• Lighting Science, headquartered in Satellite
Beach, grew 512 percent over the past five years
and has established itself as the leader in health
and wellness lighting technology and solutions.
• Its patented LED technology was developed for
NASA, the International Space Station and the
U.S. South Pole Station.
• In a prepared statement, Lighting Science’s Vice
President, Sean Tegart, credits engineering
innovation with the company’s 512 percent
revenue growth. “Our engineers push
the boundaries of lighting to create truly
technology-advanced products for an improved
quality of life,” Tegart said.
Source: Florida Today, December 2, 2013
Goodwill project is built almost entirely of domestic
materials
• A 23,000-square-foot Goodwill Industries
store and job center, under construction in West
Melbourne, is laying a patriotic claim that
nearly all of its components are made in the
United States. The store at 2245 Coastal Lane,
just south of U.S. 192, is scheduled to open next
spring.
• It’s the third “All USA” Goodwill store in
Central Florida and the first in Brevard County.
• Leading the effort is the Williams Company,
a 93-year-old construction business based in
Orlando.
• “The concept was pretty simple, that if every
builder would just increase their Americanmade products by 5 percent, it would create
220,000 jobs in America,” said Chris Rollins,
chief operating officer.
Source: Florida Today, November 30, 2013

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent MSA is comprised
of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located
in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama,
the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station,
Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval
Aviation. This area has been referred to as the “Cradle
of Naval Aviation.”

The Pensacola–Ferry Pass–Brent Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels
of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the
twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth
is expected to average 4.9 percent each year, the third
lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per
capita income level is expected to average $34,400.
The average annual wage growth rate should be
3.1 percent, while the average annual wage level is
expected to be $45,900. Population growth will be at
an average rate of 0.8 percent, the second lowest of the
studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected
to average 13,195.42 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1,
2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Escambia County population estimate of 299,114
as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Santa Rosa County population estimate of
151,372 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)

• A civilian labor force of 216,362 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).

• An unemployment rate of 6.4% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013.
This amounts to 13,885 unemployed people
(Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:

Employment growth is expected to average 1.4
percent each year, and the unemployment rate will
average 6.0 percent.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing
sector in Pensacola, with 8.8 percent average annual
growth. The Professional and Business Services sector
follow with an average growth rate of 3.3 percent.
The Financial and the Federal Government sectors
are expected to experience negative growth with an
average annual growth rate -0.2 and -0.6 percent
respectively.

• Local Government – 13,857

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES

• State Government – 5,253

Southwest’s arrival a ‘terrific win’ for area: Airline
seen as critical advantage in our ability to recruit
industries

• • Pensacola’s political and business leaders
have been courting Southwest Airlines for
two decades, with the conviction that luring
the brand to the city would raise its national
profile and boost its economy. They have finally
succeeded and Southwest’s first regularly
scheduled flight touched down this past Sunday.
• • In gaining Southwest the city lost Airtran,
which was bought in 2011 by Southwest.
Southwest, the larger airline, brings an increase
of 25% in the seats that were offered by Airtran.
• Having Southwest in Pensacola is good for
both large and small local businesses, the

74

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

P ensacola – F e r r y P ass – B r ent

military, and will present more flight options to
snowbirds looking to come to Pensacola during
the winter.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 4, 2013
A best-kept Pensacola tech secret no more: Pensacola
firm wins huge state software contract
• CTS America, a successful high-tech company,
has kept a deliberately low profile over the last
14 years, but that is over after winning a highly
competitive $30 million software contract with
the state of Florida.

• Now partnered with a relatively large
international company, CTS America will be
able to go after similar contracts in three or four
other states.

• During the past decade, CTS has increased its
customer base and now serves law enforcement
agencies in Alabama, Montana, South Carolina,
and Georgia.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 2, 2013
State PSC hears Gulf Power Co. rate request today
• Today the Florida Public Service Commission
will hear a request by Gulf Power Co. to okay
an agreement with consumer groups to raise
residential rates by $4.06 per 1,000 kilowatt
hour.

• Gulf Power says the rate increase is in the public
interest and is necessary to pay for a long-term,
major capital improvement project to upgrade
and replace the company’s aging transmission
lines and substations.
• If approved by PSC, the new rates will go into
effect in 2014 and residential rates for 1,000
kilowatt hours will increase from the current
$127.94 to $132.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, December 2, 2013

Building bonanza may be coming to nine mile area:
Request to rezone 70 acres of land for 570 housing
units goes before board
• University of West Florida administrators
are clamoring for more development and
increased enrollment and to the northwest,
the expanding Navy Federal campus and a
potentially enormous proposed commerce park
could bring thousands of new jobs to the region.
In the middle of this expanding growth, a new
development promises to provide housing for
these future students and workers.
• Smart Living LLC plans to construct some 570
single and multifamily units on 70 acres of land.
• The deal is contingent on rezoning from the
land’s current recreational use to residential.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 23, 2013
I-10 Expansion a boon and bane for businesses:
Businesses affected by roadwork worry about lost
profits
• The Florida Department of Transportation is
beginning a $43 million project to expand a
stretch of Interstate 10 to six lanes. There will
also be additional lighting, storm retention
ponds, and sound walls.

• The improvements are all for the better, but the
two years of roadwork my cause problems for
businesses that rely on customers being able to
stop in, gas up, and chow down during their
drive.
• The Department of Transportation will do all
it can to ensure customers always have access
to the businesses in the affected areas, but
some new accesses will permanently be less
convenient. Business from the construction
workers has and is expected to partially offset
lost business.
Source: Pensacola News Journal, November 22, 2013

The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden,
Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located
between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is
the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State
University and Florida A&M University.

The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA) is expected to show low growth in the
economic indicators relative to other metro areas
forecasted in the state. The area should see personal
income growth averaging 5.0 percent each year. Real
per capita income levels should average $31,800, the
lowest of the studied areas. Average annual wage
growth is expected to be 3.2 percent. The average
annual wage level will be $44,700. Population growth
will average at 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro
Product will average at a level of 12,512.58 million
dollars.

QUICK FACTS:
• Metro population estimate of 367,315 as of the
2010 census (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151
as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as
of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau).
• A civilian labor force of 188,812 in April of 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 6.1% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013.
This amounts to 11,330 unemployed people
(Florida Department of Economic Opportunity).
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• State Government (all departments) – 30,918
• Florida State University – 6,450
• Leon County Schools – 4,444
• Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare – 3,130
• City of Tallahassee – 2,708
• Publix Super Markets – 2,084
• Leon County – 1,918
• Florida A&M University – 1,888
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. – 1,300
• Capital Regional Medical Center – 890

Employment growth is expected to average 1.3
percent each year, the second lowest of the studied
areas. However, the unemployment rate will average
5.1 percent, the second lowest of the twelve MSAs.

Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing
sector in Tallahassee, averaging 8.8 percent annually.
The Professional and Business Services sector follows
with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The
financial sector is expected to decline with an average
annual growth rate of -0.1 percent.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
TLH and Delta Celebrate 30 Years of Flying High
• Delta Airlines had been serving Tallahassee
and TLH since 1983 with connections to 328
destinations in 64 countries.
• In 2013, TLH served 697,000 commercial
passengers, a 5% increase from 2012. Delta
provided more than 54% of these passengers
with flights.

• TLH will be repairing its runways in January,
which will require twelve months of work. The
reconstruction will retain or create 160 jobs.
Source: UrbanTallahassee.com, November 1, 2013

Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council

Institute for Economic Competitiveness

79

T allahassee

11 TCC Workforce Development programs approved
for Veteran Affairs’ benefits.
• The Division of Workforce Development at
Tallahassee Community College has been
approved to add 11 training programs for
veterans.

• U.S. Veterans Affairs permitted programs
including welding, computer programming,
industrial hydraulics, machining and more that
will allow students to be certified in these fields.
• TCC will work with Workforce Development
in the new Veterans Center. TCC already
offers student veterans academic advising,
assistance with VA benefits, financial
management training, tutoring, and networking
opportunities.

Source: Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce, November
13, 2013
City of Tallahassee pension plan is 91 percent funded
• Tallahassee’s pension plan is still recovering
from the Great Recession of 2008, but a
private consultant says that the pension plan is
improving every day.
• It is one of the strongest plans in the state.
For example, the Florida Retirement System
defined benefit plan is only 86.2%. This
will serve “517,000 teachers, state workers,
law enforecment, professionals and county
employees.”
Source: Tallahassee.com, November 26, 2013
TCC wins 15 statewide communications and
marketing awards

• The Assocaition of Florida Colleges held
an annual competition for marketing and
communications efforts. Colleges and
universities from all over Florida competed, and
TCC won many awards.
• Awards included best poster and postcard, 2nd
place in television ad, student handbook, and
internet ad, and 3rd place in logo redesign,
80

• All of Florida’s colleges support this Association
through institutional dues. There are also 8,500
members who share their “talents, time and
energy.”
Source: Greater Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce, November
26, 2013
2 Po’ Boys cafes officially closed

• Po’ Boys was started by Jon Sweede in 1992,
serving up classic New Orleans dishes. Though
there are three locations, two will be shut down.
One is under separate management.
• Sweede declared health issues was the main
reason behind closing the stores. At their peak,
the cafes employed about 60 people.
• A farewell party was hosted with the owners
sister at the College Avenue restaurant.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater MSA is
comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and
Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast
of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge
Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of
South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa
Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this
region home.

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate
growth in the economic indicators. Personal income
growth is expected to be 5.4 percent on average each
year, and the real per capita income level will average
$38,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to
be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be
$52,100. Population growth will average 1.3 percent,
and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest
average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas,
averaging a level of 113,372.69 million dollars.

QUICK FACTS:

• MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July
1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Hernando County population estimate of 173,094
as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Hillsborough County population estimate of
1,267,775 as of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as
of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as
of July 1, 2011. (U.S. Census Bureau)
• A civilian labor force of 1,344,031 in April 2013
for the Metro area (Federal Reserve Economic
Data).
• An unemployment rate of 6.9% not seasonally
adjusted for the entire Metro as of May 2013. This
amounts to 93,163 unemployed people (Florida
Department of Economic Opportunity).
•
TOP AREA EMPLOYERS:
• Hillsborough County School board – 29,603
• MacDill Air Force Base – 15,485
• Pinellas County School District – 13,905
• Hillsborough County Government – 9,328
• Pasco County School District – 9,289
• Verizon Communications, Inc. – 9,065
• University of South Florida – 8,353
• Tampa International Airport – 8,060
• Tampa General Hospital – 6,900
• Publix Food Centers – 5,823
Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School
District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa
Port Authority
84

Florida & Metro Forecast - December 2013

Employment growth is expected to average 2.1
percent annually, the fourth highest of the studied
MSAs. The unemployment rate is expected to average
a moderate 6.1 percent.
The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be
the Construction and Mining sector with an average
annual growth rate of 9.6 percent. This is followed
by the Professional and Business Service sector and
the Education and Health Service sector with average
annual growth rates of 3.8 percent and 2.2 percent,
respectively. None of the sectors are expected to
decline.

METRO NEWS SUMMARIES
Bed tax records keep falling as Pinellas focuses on
tourism
• Pinellas County’s unprecedented tourism boom
has resulted in another bed tax record; Pinellas
collected $31 million in fiscal year 2013,
according to the county’s tax collector office.
• The bed tax is a 5% surcharge on the bill of
every accommodation rented for less than six
months. The tax goes towards funding tourism
marketing, beach restoration, and other projects.
• The $31 million is an 8% increase from the
$28.7 million collected in the fiscal year 2012
and is not seen in destinations everywhere in
the state. Aggressive marketing that is more
targeted and is focused on different media than
in the past is noted as one cause for this success.
If this success continues and the city’s taxable

T ampa – S t . P ete r sbu r g – C lea r wate r

sales increase the tax is eligible to be increased
to 6%.

Tampa International awards contract for big
expansion
• The Hillsborough County Aviation Authority
unanimously voted this morning to hire a firm
to design and build the first phase in the master
plan for expansion of the Tampa International
Airport, which will be nearly $1 billion.
• Austin Commercial of Texas won the job and
will design the airport’s new consolidated rental
facility and automated people mover. The firm
was ranked first out of eight firms by the airport
staff and has considerable experience.
• The firm has also committed to hiring Tampa
Bay workers and firms, and to exceed the
airport’s 18% set-aside for firms owned by
women and minority business owners. The first
phase, which is set to be completed in 2017, is
expected to create about 8,000 jobs that will
have a $320 million economic impact on the
community over the next four years.

Sharply higher cost estimate puts NexLube
construction on hold
• Construction of a new $120 million oil
recycling plant at the Port of Tampa was halted
last month because according to a company
statement, “costs estimated for the plant
completion have increased to more than 100
(percent).” NexLube also said in a November
media release that it temporarily suspended
construction to evaluate its options due to the
substantial increase in projected costs.
• These cost increases are not unusual for
industrial facilities, according to David Bell,
a professor of chemical engineering at the
University of Wyoming. What is unusual is for
NexLube to have discovered them so long after
construction began in 2012.
• Parts that can withstand the very high pressure
process required for the process may be the
culprit of the price increase. Despite the cost
increase, NexLube says the project continues to
be viable and port spokesman, Ed Miyagishima,
says that according to all indications from
NexLube’s leadership the project will move
forward.

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 5, 2013

Source: Tampa Bay Times, December 4, 2013

Legoland to build hotel
• Legoland executives have announced that the
theme park will build a 152 room Lego-themed
hotel on its property by 2015.
• This is expected to draw more visitors for longer
stays to Winter Haven, where Legoland is
located.
• The hotel is the fifth Lego-themed hotel in the
world. In other locations the Legoland park and
hotel has expanded the area’s tourism offerings
and Winter Haven had hoped for this from the
beginning.

Duke Energy, Union’s contract talks raise safety
concerns at nuke plant
• Duke Energy’s collective bargaining contract
with 1,800 electrical workers in Florida expired
this week, and prompted a federal review of the
closed Crystal River nuclear plant in the event
of a strike.
• Union representatives are concerned that the
utility is willing to see the workers walk off the
job in order to get the new contract it wants.
Federal regulators intend to ensure the safety
of the nuclear plant, if negotiations continue to
erode.
• The Union representatives are troubled by
Duke’s proposed cuts, but there is a 60 day
extension on negotiations for the contract
dispute negotiations that began on October
15th.