Projecting the RailRiders roster: The outfielders

Former Giants and Indians prospect Thomas Neal won’t be the only newcomer in an intriguing outfielder for the RailRiders this season. Associated Press photo

The outfield is like the infield for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre fans. Everyone is new, even if they aren’t even really new. There will be familiar veterans in contention for jobs at Triple-A, but at the end of the day, it’s the younger players who likely will wind up taking command of the three outfield spots at PNC Field come opening day on April 4.

At some point over the last few seasons, the Yankees’ load of best prospects shifted from the catcher position to the outfielders, and some of the best of that group have finally cracked the Triple-A contenders list in 2013. This probably won’t be a season where any of the really intriguing, young prospects opens with the RailRiders, but it’s not inconceivable that any of the 24 and younger crowd will see Triple-A time before mid-season.

I guess Juan Rivera would be considered the star of the list, because he has had a nice, productive big-league career. But he has a pretty solid chance to make the big league roster, it would seem. Matt Diaz has been a sleeper in the Braves’ outfielder rotation for many years, too. But outside of those two, it’s likely that the only two players the average Scranton/Wilkes-Barre fan will be familiar with are Ronnier Mustelier and Melky Mesa, and that’s because both saw significant action for the homeless Yankees last season and did a nice job.

Almost certainly out

Juan Rivera
Slade Heathcott
Tyler Austin
Ramon Flores

It’s simple with Rivera. Even if he doesn’t make the big league club, I don’t think he’d take a Triple-A assignment. That’s just a hunch, of course, But it’s an educated one. I can’t remember a player who has been in the majors for a decade, is seen as a solid role player, has some pop, can hit lefties and is willing to play off the bench come here to start a season. I mean, sometimes they wind up in Triple-A. But usually it’s after the give a few other organizations a chance to purchase his services at the big league level. Might he be willing to come here? Absolutely. But I can’t see it. That said, I think he makes the big league roster. He can still hit lefties a little. He plays some first base along with the outfield. He hits right handed. He’s everything the Yankees were looking for in a bench option.

Heathcott, Austin and Flores are here because they can probably do a representative job if asked to in Triple-A to start the season. But since they’re three of the Yankees’ better prospects, the organization likely is going to take it slow with both — at least for now.

Heathcott is the oft-injured former top draft pick who seemed to be slipping off the prospect radar a bit last season. But once he got healthy, something funny happened: He hit. He hit exactly the way most thought he could at Class A Tampa, where he batted .307 with a .378 OBP, five homers, 27 RBIs and 17 steals. He looked like the gritty leadoff man the Yankees thought they drafted. He’s still just 22, so time isn’t running out on him by any means. But with free agency pending for Curtis Granderson, and this being his fifth year in the organization, it’s about the time when the Yankees at least consider pushing the really good ones.

Flores kind of took the Florida State League by storm last season, when he posted very similar numbers to Heathcott’s: .302 average, .370 OBP and 24 steals. He’s a good outfielder, but he’s also younger than Heathcott and much more likely to get a full season at Double-A Trenton. If they stay on track, Heathcott and Flores can give the Yankees what Lenny Dykstra and Mookie Wilson gave the Mets back in the ’80s. At least, that’s the style of players they are.

Austin is a bit of a different story, because his statistics indicate he’s a different kind of player. He’s the No. 77 prospect in all of Major League Baseball according to Baseball America, and it’s rare to see a guy drafted out of high school 1.) show strengths in every facet of the game at the plate, and 2.) seem to improve on them every year. But Austin really has. In 2011, he hit .354 with six homers, 36 RBIs and 18 steals in just 47 games. Last season, he opened at low-Class A Charleston and wound up in Double-A, hitting .322-17-80 with 23 SBs. He has been a .400 or better on-base guy at every stop, too. He didn’t spend near enough time at Trenton to think he’s jumping to Triple-A just yet. But he’s certainly someone to watch by mid-season for the RailRiders.

Almost certainly not ready

Shane Brown
Adonis Garcia
Neil Medchill
Rob Segedin

The top players here are Garcia and Segedin, and both have a decent shot to be RailRiders at some point this season.

The Yankees signed Garcia after he defected from Cuba, and at Trenton last season, he showed some pop, hitting .288 with four homers in 28 games. He split the season between Trenton and Tampa, hitting .263, but nobody has seen enough of him yet to get a really good feel about what he is. He’s built like a leadoff man (5-foot-9, 190 pounds), but he didn’t get on base at a particularly high clip at either stop (.311) and doesn’t appear to steal a ton of bases.

Segedin is sort of the opposite type of player. He’s 6-foot-3, 220 pounds and came up as a third baseman, which he’ll still play from time to time. He does seem to have some pop — 10 homers last season — and he looks like a good on-base guy. But in a 48-game stint with Trenton last year, he hit .188. He’ll repeat that level in 2013, for sure.

Shane Brown is a guy the Yankees liked enough to draft in back-to-back years, but he didn’t hit last season (a .161 average) after batting .321 in limited action with Charleston in 2011. He needs to be where he’ll play a lot this season if he’s going to make a jump.

At this point, Medchill looks like a pretty serviceable organizational guy. Between Tampa and Trenton last season, he hit .254-11-43, but what will hold him back with the Yankees is that his on-base percentage is never close to where they like to see guys. Last season, his was .309, and that’s pretty much where Medchill sits for his career.

The wild card

Matt Diaz

A few people have asked me something similar to this over the past few weeks: OK, so what’s the real difference at this point between Juan Rivera and Matt Diaz? Are they just taking the same player twice and hoping one gets hot in spring training while the other gets sent here?

Very good question with a very simple answer to the first part: Yes. They are hoping one gets hot.

To the second part…well, it’s not exactly that easy.

Rivera and Diaz are both outfielders. Both hit right-handed. Both have hit lefties very well throughout their careers. There is a difference between the two at this point, though: While Rivera still does what you might call better-than-average damage against lefties, Diaz hasn’t shown it in recent years. Here’s what Diaz has done against lefties the last few seasons:

You know how baseball revolves around statistics nowadays, even though there are some outside factors contributing to both sets of numbers (i.e., Rivera was an everyday player some of those years, making it easier for him to stay in a groove). But what you have here is pretty clear: Diaz is a guy declining even against the pitchers he used to crush, and Rivera has stayed relatively near what he always has been.

As I sit here, I’m not sure how good Matt Diaz would have to look and how bad Juan Rivera would have to be this spring for the Yankees to consider keeping Diaz over Rivera. But for as close as they seem to be in many minds, to me it would have to be a first-round knockout by Diaz for the judges to consider looking away from history.

So, how does that affect the RailRiders? I guess the answer is that I’m not sure it does. The Yankees have a history of bringing the veteran player to camp on a minor league deal, seeing what he has, then cutting him if they just don’t see how it fits. I hate to put it this way, because I’m not that callous, but I think the loser of this battle probably should and will be cut. Diaz is a good pro and has had a great career. But if he finishes second to Rivera, what would be the point of keeping him around in the minor leagues? What would be the point of sending Zoilo Almonte or Addison Maruszak, young players who are on the move, back to Trenton to give Diaz another month or two to get it together against lefties?

The best guess

Zoilo Almonte
Melky Mesa
Ronnier Mustelier
Thomas Neal

This was probably the easiest of the positions to predict, because at this point, there are three players I’m sure will be with the RailRiders: Mesa, Mustelier and Neal.

All three have significant Triple-A time, and Mesa and Mustelier were with SWB last season. Mesa hit just .230 here, but he was a big player down the stretch for the Yankees, hitting nine homers and knocking in 21 runs in 33 games. Extrapolate that over 144 games, and it’s 39 homers and 91 RBIs. He’s an exciting player, hit or miss in every sense of the word.

Mustelier was much more consistent than that. He hit .303 with 10 homers and 49 RBIs despite battling a leg injury, and he somehow stole seven bases too even though, let’s just say, he doesn’t look like a guy who would steal very many.

Neal spent most of last season in Double-A with Akron, where he hit .314 with a .400 OBP. He has shown good power potential over the years and can play the corner outfield spots. But the Yankees will be looking for him to translate his potential to results with the RailRiders, and for whatever reason, Triple-A has been a stumbling block for him.

Almonte is one of the under-the-radar prospects for the Yankees who has been really good the last few years. He hit .277-21-70 last season for Trenton, and that followed a .276-15-77 campaign the year before. Almonte runs pretty well and is a solid defender, so he figures to see a lot of time at the corner spots and maybe backing up Mesa in center.

Baseball isn't limited to box scores and game stories, and neither is baseball news. Stay in the know with insight, breaking news and other RailRiders nuggets from Times-Tribune beat writer Donnie Collins. He'll check in regularly with transactions, game-day information and more than a few opinions.