Currently
the feeling here is, as ever, to aid the various countries on the side of the
United States in carrying out the ultimate destruction of Germany. Though the Soviet,
far more than was expected, has been able to put up a remarkable fight, there
are many who sense an early defeat. England and the United States render such
assistance as is possible in order to make impossible a separate peace or
surrender. They are hopeful of being able to maintain her fighting strength in
the spring provided she can weather the winter. Opinion has developed to this
point. The United States is putting up an estimated $-0,000,000 worth of
assistance. As a result of this, they plan to encourage the Britons' will to
fight.

With
regard to submarines, their utter annihilation is recognized to be virtually
impossible. But then the American Navy could move directly into the Atlantic in
order to protect Atlantic shipping. Furthermore, after the anticipated
6,000,000 "dead-weight" tons of increased construction have been
completed by the United States alone during the twelve months of next year, a
crisis will arise in the Atlantic. No one is unduly alarmed about submarines.

Army 23011Trans. 10/3/41 (2)

[Secret]

From: Washington (Nomura)

To: Tokyo

September 22, 1941

J-19

#839 (Part 2 of 4)

With
regard to the question of the policy toward ______, the people, as a general
rule, are extremely happy-go-lucky. Should a war develop between Japan and the
United States, "why worry, it's inevitable," is their attitude. There
is still a great deal of talk on the comparative merits of the navies of both
countries, the gist of which can be summed up as follows: A war between Japan
and the United States will be one within the scope of the navy alone; Japan's
economic strength cannot stand a long war; the United States excels greatly in
its ability to replace warships lost in battle; saying these things, they boast
of their ability to win out in a short while. There are only a few who are at
all conscious of the danger of a war with Japan. In the field of international
diplomacy, they still maintain their age-old policy toward ______. There are
many who argue that to reach a compromise with Japan at the expense of China is
fundamentally wrong. For example, according to the Hyde Park correspondent
writing in the New York Times, Sunday edition, at the present time
attempts to ameliorate the situation existing between Japan and the United
States are deadlocked. Because Japan's demands for the continued occupation of
territory held by them in China is not in agreement with HULL's categorical
denial of the possibility of such continued occupation, Premier KONOYE has
requested a direct conference with the President.

Army 23012Trans. 10/3/41 (2)

[SECRET]

From: Washington (Nomura)

To: Tokyo

September 22, 1941

J-19

#839 (Part 3 of 4)

Nevertheless,
notwithstanding all that, since the German people's will to fight is stronger
than ever before, there are a greater number of people who feel that such a
non-aggressive policy as outlined above cannot bring about a successful
conclusion.

Many
feel that as a result of the discontent of people in occupied lands, Italy will
withdraw herself from the line of battle. In addition, many feel that the
unrest of people in occupied areas will continue to increase. There are others,
too, who pin unfounded hopes that the power of endurance of the German people
will crumble within a short space of time.

If
the war is to be a short one, one or two years will be required. If it is a
long one, it will be protracted from five to ten years. the people generally
here are maintaining an extremely happy-go-lucky frame of mind. There are
practically none at all who think that as a result of this war the United
States will be destroyed. With regard to their will to enter into the war, they
feel that naval participation is sufficient. And, aside from the preparations
being undertaken by military authorities, there are practically none who
anticipate the dispatch of expeditionary forces on a large scale.

However,
most recently there has been a sharp decline in the isolationist opinion
expressed in the houses of Congress. One group is already going over to the
majority group who back up the Government's foreign policy.

Army 23013Trans. 10/3/41 (7)

[SECRET]

From: Washington (Nomura)

To: Tokyo

September 22, 1941

J-19

#839 (Part 4 of 4)

Nevertheless,
the President is a person who unceasingly confers with HULL. Today the greater
portion of the American Navy being is kept in the Pacific. Japan, in the event
of the Russian do, fall, might move either to the south or to the north. In
such a case there is some fear that a frontal clash might occur at the same
time in the Atlantic and the Pacific as well. The President is giving the
utmost consideration to this matter.

As
for Japan's peace terms, rumors are being circulated that in addition to Japan
demanding the treaty ports and the four southern provinces in China, she might
go so far as to demand other points of military importance.

Finally,
though the United States Government does not wish to compromise with Japan at
the expense of China, should Japan give up forceful aggressions,
Japanese-American trade relations could be restored, and the United States
would even go so far as to render economic assistance to Japan.

The
above are the critical observations concerning the trend of opinion in the
United States made by KURATUKUHOON, [a] and I think he hit the nail on the
head.

[a] Kana spelling.

Army 23014Trans. 10/3/41 (2)

(EXHIBITS OF JOINT COMMITTEE
, EXHIBIT NO. 1 INTERCEPTED DIPLOMATIC MESSAGES SENT BY THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT
BETWEEN JULY l AND DECEMBER 8, 1941)