November 11, 2013

7% Growth Still Feasible Despite the Yolanda

After the devastation of typhoon Yolanda which killed hundreds of people and destroyed millions total worth of properties, economic observers are thinking twice if the 7% growth for this year is still feasible. To measure the real impact of the tragedy to the future economic growth of the Philippines, the opportunity cost must be computed. Opportunity cost, for example, is the opportunity foregone because of the typhoon; because of the typhoon, the business operation stop and the income that should be earned that time was not realized. Moreover, the values of properties destroyed are also included in the cost. If the cost comprised large percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), then the possibility of not meeting the target growth this year (7%) is high.

Based on Philippine Economist data, Eastern Visayas – which was heavily affected by typhoon Yolanda, is estimated to comprise 1% to 2% of economic productivity (NCR has the highest productivity). Despite the low contribution to the economy, Eastern Visayas has big potential for growth; the region is included in the top 10 emerging regions based on Philippine Economist database.

Having said the above paragraph, 7% growth is still feasible. Yet, what cannot be computed are the lives that were gone.

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