The execution of Kasasbeh could catalyze increased criticism of Jordan’s government for its involvement in the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State—a decision taken at the highest levels of the state with neither transparency, public involvement, nor parliamentary approval.

Jordan has been deeply concerned about the effect of Syria’s civil war on its security. It has taken several counterterrorism measures, but its strategy in combating the threat of radicalism has been flawed.

The remarkably nonsectarian and democratic statement signed by rebel factions in southern Syria in February was likely only a ploy by rebel commanders to get more foreign support by declaring their opposition to extremism.

Popular opinion in the Hashemite Kingdom over Syria is divided. Many Jordanians support the insurgency against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but some oppose it and many others have grown skeptical over time, as the spillover from Syria to Jordan increases.

There is a risk that the flow of weapons and fighters from Jordan into Syria will contribute to lawlessness and insecurity in Jordan, and the spillover of the hundreds of thousands of Syrians refugees into Jordan is likely to continue.