How
badly is Florida State hurting? Can they even compete
with Virginia Tech in this week’s first-ever ACC
championship game? Will Bobby Bowden ever figure out
that it is his son who is the albatross around the Noles’
collective offensive neck? Much evidence as to what
will happen against Tech Saturday was served up by a
Florida Gator team still searching for its own identity.
In front of giblet-stuffed America, the Gators looked
like they had FSU’s playbook as they dismantled
the Noles 34-7. But in reality, FSU has had so many
injuries that many of the players that did play were
just flat-out inferior compared to the prime players
Florida had to offer. Tie in an FSU offense that still
does have many of its top weapons available yet remains
ineffective due to marginal coaching and you see why
Nole fans might as well be rooting for a mid-major
instead of their quality team that finished
in the top five for 14 straight years (from 1987 through
2000). Florida just blew FSU out of the water, especially
in both trenches. Injuries aside (of which FSU has too
many to mention), play development took too long as
Gators were everywhere, seemingly knowing what FSU would
do (run or pass) initially from just seeing who was
lining up and the given formation called. And for anyone
who thought the Nole ship can be righted, things seem
to get confusing within their offensive braintrust.
Bobby Bowden, the winningest I-A coach ever, doesn’t
seem to know what his team is doing or where they are
heading. With the Nole’s web site not even issuing
post-game notes, we cannot verify from FSU sources the
following Bowden quote found on the Gator’s site
– “If you looked at the stats, you’d
think we tied…They had 111 rushing yards, we had
89…”. Official stats, though, say different
– UF had 73 rushing yards on 33 tries, while FSU
earned 49 yards on 28 carries. Which game was Papa Bowden
at? By the way his offense had to call two timeouts
in the first series, no one on the garnet-and-gold offense
was really there after two weeks of preparations. Especially
son Jeff, the Nole’s offensive coordinator since
Mark Richt left in early 2001 to be head man at UGA.
Did you do the math and figure out how FSU lost its
team prowess soon after Jeff took the reigns of this
(once) offensive powerhouse? The younger Bowden’s
only other coaching experience was under his brother
Terry at Salem College. Factor in that his father was/is
the only other person who would hire Jeff and you see
what Bobby can’t – that this son is not
qualified to head a crop of lettuce, let alone his once-vaunted
offense. State tallied but 87 yards in the first half,
and knowing that something had to change or else FSU
would have been shutout for the first time since the
Canes blanked them 31-0 in 1988, opening up the playbook
only exposed how empty those pages truly are. FSU looked
more like a Division II or a prep-level team as it struggled,
which only makes us give it to the Gators for showing
up ready for 60 full minutes. Once young Jeff had played
everything his hand held by the first quarter and UF
had the answer every time (Noles had 63 yards and five
first-downs in the first half), FSU had nothing left.
Once the Gators went into the locker room and powwowed,
their coaches easily adjusted to what FSU was doing
defensively. Many will see Nole game totals of 334 yards
and 19 first-downs and wonder what we are talking about.
But 171 of their yards and nine first-downs came on
their last two drives, after UF was already up 34-0
and began coasting. The elder Bowden blames players
and their ineptness for last week’s problems,
not his son in any capacity, “It seemed like turnovers
were our downfall.” Well, when you have been ill-prepared
to go up against an SEC powerhouse and you are forced
to take risks that the other team knows are coming,
it is the offensive coaches who have failed the team
most. The defense did its best and performed well, but
the Nole stoppers were just asked to do too much. We
told you in mid-season, when FSU was undefeated after
week five, that of all the lossless squads then still
left, FSU was the weakest. How else can anyone explain
State now falling to 7-4? Hobbling into the title game
Saturday against VT, FSU looks like Pitt did last year
when they went to the Fiesta Bowl to play then-Utah
coach Urban Meyer and the modest-but-powerful Utes.
Whereas many teams can still look decent even with injury
rashes, FSU’s offensive strategists give their
players no chance to win with their efforts. If FSU
does well, just like last week, it will be because of
those on the field, not those in power. For UF, Meyer
needs to reevaluate his approach to playing those big,
fast SEC foes with his subtle-yet-still-vulnerable spread
option. Beating FSU isn’t even close to that SEC
level, so discount this Gator win for that reason. Even
though Meyer becomes the first Gator coach to beat Tennessee,
Georgia and FSU in his first season (fourth time ever),
only the win over UGA (without D.J. Shockley) has any
bite. UF, though, never trailed in any of the three,
another school first. Florida will be better next campaign,
which will be Meyer’s second in command, the same
year he truly took off at both Utah and Bowling Green.
And once he gets his own recruits for his zany schemes…

With
the Cyclones losing in their last regular-season game
for the second-straight year to narrowly miss the Big
XII championship game, Iowa State is still kicking
itself for again not finishing the job. It
was a 17-14 loss to Mizzu that held them back in ’04,
and losing to Kansas 24-21 in OT last Saturday only
makes mumbles of “coulda-woulda-shoulda”
ring throughout the Ames campus. But KU has defeated
ISU seven of the last eight times in Lawrence, so State
had even more demons than many knew coming in. Kansas
won it on the ground, out-gaining the Cyclones by more
than a two-to-one margin (123 to 56) on only two more
total carries. Even though up 14-3 at the break, Iowa
State only has itself to blame for leaving three first-half
INTs on the field, converting for no points on any of
them. With three OT games lost by a total of 13 points,
Iowa State winds up losing their four by 23 total points.
Yet even more haunting is how ISU mirrored last year’s
results over their final nine ’05 contest –
in both campaigns, three mid-season losses were answered
by four-consecutive wins, only to then have a division
foe beat them as they were one crucial win away from
that fleeting birth in the conference title contest.
It is even tougher knowing that they beat Colorado,
the team that will represent the North division half,
30-16 the prior week. If a chip like this doesn’t
get knocked off their collective shoulders by the end
of next season, it could be a while until coach Dan
McCarney has his boys in position to again reach the
Big XII top. Ten starters return to Ames on offense,
so McCarney & Co. can actually make a larger splash
nationally in the ‘06 campaign. But we recommend
his team take it one step at a time and see if they
can finally get to Houston. Then, if they can compete
with or win against a strong team from the South division
in the title game, larger aspirations can be the aim
in Ames.

Not
Finishing the Job – Part II

It also seemed appropriate for South
Florida to blow its chance to reach the BCS as the Bulls
played like most Florida teams do when suddenly thrust
into wintry conditions. This was not the same USF that
beat Louisville 45-14 (9/24/05), but was the same one
that let a big win go to their collective heads and
then lost to Pitt 31-17 in their very next Big East
tilt. After the Panther humbling, the Bulls reeled off
three straight conference wins and controlled their
own destiny with UConn and WVU the only teams in their
way for a BCS birth in this, their very first year within
reach of an automatic birth via conference title. The
game was a good one, with USF whiffing four separate
times once in UConn territory due to TOs (three INTs,
one fumble) caused by a stifling Huskie D. USF only
allowed one offensive TD, on UConn’s initial drive,
and then the Bull D did its job well by holding UConn
to but 172 total yards. Other Huskie points came from
a KO return for TD and a safety, so all USF had to do
was take advantage of their consistently good field
position (average start was their own 42). The hindsight
that really stings is how USF got a huge 37-yard punt
runback to the UConn eight-yard line with 7:40 left,
trailing by what was to be the final score 15-10. When
it got to third-and-goal at the one, USF jumped the
gun (false start), then threw an incomplete pass, and
then tried an ill-advised flea-flicker on fourth-down
that failed miserably. Hint to any aspiring offensive
coordinators – when the field is condensed in
the red zone and DBs are only a few yards deep as they
crowd the proceedings, DO NOT call any slowly-developing
types of plays that invite disruption, ESPECIALLY on
fourth-down late in the fourth quarter of a title-hunt
game. Instead of making this week’s home finale
with West Virginia the Big East’s by-default title
game, USF slinks in with nothing to play for
(since they already are bowl eligible). USF
lost the opener to No.4 Penn State 23-13 and looked
competitive versus Miami in losing 27-7. Both road trips
prove USF is a force with their tough D and effective
runners, but also still hasn’t learned what it
takes to make to any next level(s).

Not Finishing the Job –
Part III

In the Conference USA West Division,
UTEP was also in control of its own destiny, having
only to win its final contest with (then 4-6) SMU to
secure a spot in their league’s first-ever title
game. The Miners had just lost their home closer to
UAB 35-23, but were still in position to earn a ticket
to Orlando to face UCF (division-winner with best record
is home site for championship). Four INTs and 24-unanswered
second-half points later, a 40-27 result and 8-3 (5-3
CUSA) record is all Mike Price’s guys have to
show. Tulsa, who UTEP had just beat three weeks earlier,
instead winds up with a trip to see Mickey through wins
over East Carolina (45-13) and Tulane (38-14 this past
weekend) following the 41-38 loss to the Miners. SMU,
of course, was the early spoiler of TCU’s chances
at a BCS birth. After the Horned Frogs shocked the world
in week one by beating Oklahoma in Norman 14-10, the
Mustangs cleaned TCU’s clock 21-10. This time,
the Dallas Disappointers kept a Miner squad that had
reached as far as No.24 in the AP poll (week 12) from
getting its due. Eight of the 12 CUSA teams finished
between 3-5 and 5-3, making competitive mediocrity
what this league offers most. There are some
decent teams to be found, but with TCU now in the Mountain
West, no squad looks to be a “BCS buster”
anytime soon. Out in the west Texas town of El Paso,
the Miners felt a self-inflicted bullet go deep in their
chest…

Anyone looking for tips in this weekend’s
regular season enders is SOL. In the SEC title game,
Georgia and LSU square off for the 26th time (LSU leads
14-10-1). Though the last two times the current-No.13
Bulldawgs played the No.3 Tigers were both blowouts
(each won one), the two tilts before were each one-point
affairs. Ranked fourth (LSU allows 13.5 per game) and
fifth (UGA 14.6) for scoring D, these two are likewise
separated by one point in their scoring offenses (LSU
29.9 and UGA 28.6). TO-margin is one degree
of separation (LSU loses almost one more than
they gain per game, while UGA inversely earns one more
than they lose), but common opponents tell little. Georgia
lost to Florida (14-10) and at home to Auburn (31-30)
in consecutive weeks, both teams that were beaten by
LSU (beat UF 21-17 and AU 20-17 in OT, also in back-to-back
weeks). Conversely, LSU fell to Tennessee 30-27 in OT
in week four, a 5-6 team that UGA easily handled two
weeks later 27-14. Florida and Auburn trump the ’05
Vols in quality foe(s), but the TO difference always
comes into play in tight, low-scoring SEC affairs, especially
those for a league title and an automatic BCS birth.
In the MAC title, Northern Illinois goes into Detroit
Thursday night to face Akron, a team they lost to in
OT 48-42 in late September. NIU has gone 6-1 since,
all in-league tilts. The Zips have posted a .500 mark
since then, going 4-4 but winning their last two big.
One of those wins was versus Kent State 35-3 (without
looking, can you come up with their team’s name?),
a team the Huskies beat 34-3, while both lost to Ball
State. NIU beat Miami(OH) at home, and Akron lost to
them on the road. NIU has the better offense but pales
on D to Akron. Current trends make us feel like Northern
Illinois has the advantage, but in the MAC, nothing
is certain until the final gun sounds. If you cannot
figure out who will win the Big XII and ACC titles,
you need to go back to College Football 101.