1The Penalty Grows With Income.

It could still cost you real money if you don’t get health-care coverage, despite last-minute changes this week that will give many people more time to enroll. The much-publicized $95 penalty for not obtaining coverage is only for relatively low-income people. For most, the penalty would be higher – about 1% of adjusted income. For a married couple with two children making $50,000 a year, the penalty could be about $300 for 2014. The same couple making $100,000 could be fined around $800. (The penalty is also capped at the level of the cheapest plan they could have purchased.)

Reuters

2Any Penalty Is Paid Next Year.

You incur the fine by not signing up by the Monday, March 31, deadline, but most people wouldn’t actually pay the penalty until they file their 2014 returns, which typically happens in 2015. The IRS can collect it by reducing the size of your refund. The IRS can collect it by reducing the size of your refund, but many of its other enforcement mechanisms such as levies are not available. So, it does seem to be possible to avoid the penalty by making sure you don’t have a refund due, but many of the people in the penalty demographic typically do receive refunds. A lot of people without health insurance who would be subject to a penalty benefit from tax credits that would typically give rise to a refund. These individuals could adjust their withholding to avoid a refund, but that seems unlikely in most cases.

2015
When you would pay a penalty for not having insurance in 2014.

3A New Extension.

Despite the threat of a penalty, exceptions announced this week could provide an important chance to avoid it. The administration said that as long as people say they started the process before Monday’s deadline, they will be granted a hardship exemption and a grace period to complete the enrollment process. It’s unclear how long that will last. Many states that run their own exchanges also are giving a little more time.

Reuters

4Many People Will Miss Deadline.

Speaking of signups, a lot of people still aren’t going to do it, either because they don’t know about the deadline or don’t plan to act. The latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll this week found: “Six in ten of the uninsured are unaware of the March 31 deadline to sign up for coverage. When reminded of the deadline and the fine for not getting covered, half of those who lack coverage as of mid-March say they plan to remain uninsured.”

50%
Percentage of people without health insurance who said they plan to remain uninsured, according to a Kaiser poll.

5More Exemptions, Extensions, Relief Still Possible.

Uncertainty and confusion over the complex program will continue. There are already a slew of ways (see https://www.healthcare.gov/exemptions/ ) a person can get an exemptions from enrolling–a list that has expanded. There’s speculation that the administration will grant further relief from the penalty later in the year, given the huge numbers of people who seem oblivious to the signup deadline and who will face the penalty. But for now, the penalty remains an important tool for the government to encourage people to get coverage.