November 26, 12:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Forecast Nuts & Bolts

Posted: Nov 27, 2019 12:20 PM

Updated: Nov 27, 2019 3:47 PM

Posted By: Chad Evans

Weakening gusty squall line passed very early this morning followed by dry slot with clearing & significant decrease in the wind. Then, the wall of damaging wind came in with the low clouds & falling temperatures. The highest measured gust I found from the actual line was 45 mph.

No warnings issued here, but some up to the Illinois state line. Now, getting Severe T'Storm Warning north of Detroit, Michigan!

1. Worst of the wind will be over early this afternoon, but it will still be windy right into tonight. Gusts will decrease from +50 mph to 40 mph, then to 30 mph. It will remain mostly cloudy to cloudy with a few spits of showers/flake or sprinkes this afternoon.

2. Thanksgiving may feature pockets of brief sun early, then an overall mostly cloudy to cloudy day as wind continue to decrease to 5-10 mph by afternoon. Wind will also shift from northwest to north to northeast with highs 37-44 after 28-32 in the morning..

3. Friday morning looks dry & it should stay dry until late Friday afternoon-evening when rain begins to move in. It should be a mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs 42-46. Wind will turn from the east-southeast to the southeast & increase from 5-10 mph to 10-15 mph late. Friday morning lows will run 33-36.

4. Period of rain will occur Friday night through Saturday with cloudy skies. Winds will turn to the south & increase to 20-35 mph Saturday. Temperatures will run 50-54 much of the day after 40s in the morning.

5. Rain should diminish Saturday evening. A sudden warm-up to 55-60 is possible with a low-topped line of gusty showers & a few storms passing after 7 p.m. A narrow corridor of isolated severe risk could develop in Illinois & we will see if any of that can make it into our area. Total rainfall from this system should run 0.80-1.50".

6. Dry slot should follow Saturday night with clearing & southwest to west winds gusting to 50 mph at times.

7. Sunday looks gray with spotty rain showers with a few flakes & temperatures falling to 38-42. Winds may gust to 50 mph at times from the west, then northwest.

8. Monday looks cloudy after a few morning rain/snow showers with temperatures 33-36 & winds turning to the north with gusts to 40 mph. Winds should diminish in the afternoon with highs 39-43.

9. After cloudy skies & lows near 31 Monday night, Tuesday looks windy from the southwest, then west to northwest with gusts potentially to 50 mph. Skies look mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers as Alberta Clipper's cold front slices through area. Highs of 42-47 are likely.

10. Skies should gradually clear Wednesday with highs 34-37 with north winds gusting to 35 mph initially, then diminishing. In fact, the wind may go light to calm by 5 p.m. Lows 16-18 should follow Wednesday night.

11. Next Thursday will feature increasing clouds. After a frosty start with light to calm wind, southeast wind should increase to gusts of 25-30 mph by late in the day & into Thursday night. Highs in the 39-45 range are likely with lows rising to 50 to the 50s Thursday night potentially (as wind turns to the due south).

12. Rain is likely next Friday with wind turning to the north with gusts to 30 mph. Highs initially near 50 to the 50s should fall to 40-42 in the afternoon. Rainfall totals look to run 0.25-0.40" at this point.

13. Potent storm system of strong winds, rain & 50s is possible around December 9-10. Preliminary data suggests +45 mph gusts from the southwest, then west to northwest as storm system pivots through.

14. Another potent system may bring rain, wind & mild weather around December 15, followed by much colder weather with highs only in the 20s & lows deep down into the teens.

15. A sudden, seemingly out-of-no where warm-up could occur near the 20th with rain, wind & 40s to 50s, but after that, more & more bitter cold domination will occur.

16. We need to watch latter December to start of January for potential winter storm or two with snow. Pattern will be highly-conducive for storm systems to track out of the Texas Panhandle, up the Ohio Valley bringing potential of substantial snowfall here.

17. However, energy transfers to developing East Coast Nor'Easters may trim snowfall totals some here as "snowfall" or "moisture piracy" develops.

18. Be prepared for multiple intense cold outbreaks in January with temperatures to -20 & above normal snowfall. Given extreme, highly-loopy nature of the upper jet, a random, major near-record warm-up will also likely occur with rain, some severe risk, ice jams, fog & a couple of high wind events.

19. Analog suggests a significant cold outbreak with lows to -20 in February, as well, with above normal snowfall. Suggestion in analog of a mild, rainy, snowless late February, though with some river flooding as snow cover melts & rain occurs.

20. Earmarks of cold, wet March with above normal snowfall are also seen with lack of any sign of spring until after March 20.

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