Counties that rely heavily on tourism and manufacturing are likely to be hit the hardest.

Gloucester County, with its large food service industry, and Atlantic County, with its large hotel and accommodations industry, are likely to be the hardest hit, the analysis found. Gloucester County’s GDP could drop by nearly 26%, or $1.1 billion, and Atlantic County’s could drop by nearly 23%, more than $800 million, the analysis found.

Nationally, the analysis predicted a GDP loss of 18.1%. Thirteen New Jersey counties are predicted to drop by more than that figure.

The social distancing efforts being used to combat the spread of coronavirus are the economic price to be paid to reduce the harm to human life.

Recently published research by the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that economic shutdowns such as Gov. Phil Murphy’s order to shutter all nonessential businesses could induce a recession, which is a decline in economic activity for at least a few months.

“We are confident that the central message from our current analysis will be robust: there is an inevitable trade-off between the severity of the recession and the health consequences of the epidemic,” researchers wrote in one paper.

Other leading economists also predict a recession.

“In the near term, public health objectives necessitate people staying home from shopping and work, especially if they are sick or at risk. So production and spending must inevitably decline for a time,” former chairs of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen wrote in a March 18 op-ed in the Financial Times. “Ideally, when the effects of the virus pass, people will go back to work, to school, to the shops, and the economy will return to normal. In that scenario, the recession may be deep, but at least it will have been short.”

While GDP is an indicator of a recession, it is only one of several tools economists use. Sharp declines are a serious warning sign.

James Chung, the author of the analysis, said county GDPs across the country will take a hit in the coming months.

“Every county in America is going negative in (the second quarter)," Chung said. “And it’s going to go deep for pretty much everyone, and it’s going to hurt.”

According to the analysis, Bergen and Middlesex counties are also likely to take a hit, facing $3.4 billion declines in GDP from April to June, each. Bergen County’s largest industry is health care and Middlesex County has a large administrative workforce.

Another bad sign for the state’s economy was last week’s unemployment numbers. About 156,000 workers filed for benefits, a 1,500% increase over the previous week.

“We’ve never had as sharp a drop as this, and (last week’s) unemployment numbers show that,” said James Hughes. the former dean of Rutgers’ University Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.

The best estimates for the future, Chung and Hughes said, is that the state and country could even out the April-through-June decline by the end of the year. But that’s only if workers return to their jobs and the economy begins to recover by the end of June.

To get there, though, the COVID-19 virus must be contained and state and federal government must pitch in to right the ship. The $2 trillion stimulus package the U.S. House of Representatives passed on Friday is a first key step, Chung said.

“There are still too many wild cards for us to predict when this is going to end,” Chung said. “We’re hoping political leadership is truly tying to find the best financial interventions.”

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