Is Crude About to Rally?

Crude oil futures prices are back above $100 for the first time since September 2012, while Brent continues to trade in a range between $97 and $107.

Crude Performance After Brent-WTI Correlation Breakdown

2 Months Later

3 Months Later

Oct-85

-1.12

-8.71

Aug-86

23.38

22.6

Jun-89

-4

2.12

Jul-91

-1.47

5.85

Aug-96

21.32

14.39

1-Jun

6.82

-8.08

12-Jan

5.47

0.99

Average

7.2

4.17

The closely watched spread between the European and U.S. benchmarks traded below $4 on Wednesday's session—the lowest level in 2½ years.

Does the spread provide any clues as to how these two commodities may trade in the near future?

A six-month rolling correlation between crude and brent recently dropped below 0.40. Historically, when the correlation reaches this level, the price of crude tends to significantly increase in the months ahead.

Since 1985, oil has posted an average gain of 7 percent within two months after the correlation broke down.