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The PC is Not Dead: Prepare for the “PC-Plus” Era

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CIOs shouldn’t make plans to get rid of PCs just yet, or assume consumers are getting rid of theirs.

Tablets have become popular tools in the enterprise market—companies around the world have purchased about 30 million of them, Deloitte estimates. But are they replacing desktop and laptop personal computers?

Deloitte analysis indicates the answer is no.

It’s likely that only 10 to 15 million tablets are being used as PC replacements to some extent. And fewer than 5 million tablets are the device on which employees perform all of their work tasks. In comparison, Deloitte estimates that the enterprise PC installed base is about 500 million.

“Rather than being in a post-PC era, we’re in a PC-plus era, and that should continue for the foreseeable future,” says Paul Lee, director and head of global technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) research, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

“Tablets, as well as smartphones, are almost certainly complementary devices, not truly PC replacements,” adds Duncan Stewart, director of research for TMT, Deloitte Canada. “This makes the CIO’s job more complex. CIOs must now provide apps and software across multiple hardware, operating systems, and form factors, while maintaining security.”

PCs are Alive and Well Utilized

While not matching the growth of tablets and smartphones, PC sales have remained strong. The total installed base of PCs should continue to increase in 2013, according to Deloitte analysis, albeit at a slower pace than over the past two decades.

Globally, there will likely be almost 1.6 billion PCs in use in 2013, compared with 1.4 billion in 2010, according to Gartner research. The installed base of tablets will be about a quarter of a billion in 2013, and the base of smartphones with data capability that is used regularly will be more than 1.5 billion.¹ As replacement cycles lengthen, flat or even moderately declining annual sales figures may not imply a decline in the number of PCs owned.

And people are spending a lot of time with their PCs—70 percent of the hours they spend on any computing device, according to Deloitte analysis. Time at work accounts for a large portion of that, but people are even likely to use PCs more than 50 percent of the time for non-work-related computing, according to Pew Internet.

Moreover, given a choice, people seem to prefer using their PCs over other devices. A recent survey asked smartphone owners on which device— smartphone, tablet, or PC —they preferred to perform 13 common tasks. Across every use case queried, the respondents said they preferred to use their PC.²

Why does the PC endure?

The PC’s physical attributes—larger screens, full- or mid-size keyboards, and mice or trackpads—go a long way to explaining its continued popularity.

“There are relatively few office roles that could be done just using a tablet, a device that’s specialized for viewing and reviewing,” says Lee.

In fact, many of the most publicized examples of enterprise tablet usage replace paper, not PCs. Examples include pilots using tablets in the cockpit, doctors using them to review medical records, or boards of directors using them as binders.

What Does it Mean for CIOs?

The PC’s enduring popularity has implications for CIOs with respect to purchasing devices and designing content for users.

“The important thing is to give the right people the right tools. Not all devices and operating systems are suitable for all roles,” says Lee. If people just need to review content, a tablet may suffice, but for people who create content, a PC may still be essential.

In some cases, such as for finance teams or creative teams, the need for PCs is evident. “Writing long documents is hard on a tablet, and preparing spreadsheets and presentations is even harder,” says Lee.

While it’s fairly straightforward to review a spreadsheet on a tablet, using the tablet to edit even a single cell of a spreadsheet is much harder. Creating a spreadsheet on a tablet is almost impossible. And although a smartphone or tablet is fine for writing a 50-word e-mail, writing longer communications generally requires a full keyboard. The cutoff for comfortably using a smartphone or tablet appears to be about 500 words.³

In designing websites, enterprises should not neglect the PC. Website designers are devoting significant resources to creating mobile versions of their sites, which is sensible given the rapid growth of mobile usage; however, most visits will still come from computers with keyboards and large monitors, which require different designs. Even with very strong sales growth, smartphones and tablets will account for no more than 15 percent of connected device traffic worldwide by the end of 2013, Deloitte estimates.

Companies also shouldn’t assume that young consumers around the world will gravitate toward cheaper and newer form factors such as tablets. Deloitte’s “Devices, Consumption, and the Digital Landscape 2012″ report shows the exact opposite. When asked which device was most important, 68 percent of all surveyed users chose a laptop and only 32 percent chose a tablet. Responses varied widely by age, however: 92 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said the PC was their preferred device, compared with only 60 percent of those age 66 to 75.

“Even for the younger demographic,” says Stewart, “the PC is the principal device around which users organize their computer lives.”

The PC is Not Dead: Prepare for the “PC-Plus” Era

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