An Arab awakening, after all

The Arab uprisings look great on TV and so far toppled, in a matter of weeks, two once-unassailable regimes. Yet, as they left the Egyptian border and hit the Libyan wall, the risks of collectively terming them the 'Arab revolution' were evident. Aren't they something between a 'revolution' and a 'spring'?

Of course, Tunisia and Egypt were easy - regimes that provoked fear and revulsion alike, US diplomatic leverage that came through generous aid, strong militaries that ditched the presidents when their continuation in office became absolutely untenable, and a few cries of Allahu Akbar on the streets. Then came Libya, the West's current target du jour . But the current situation there suggests that the tyrant and his horrible regime will fight to the last drop of blood. The regimes in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain also struggle to contain their inner convulsions, but in an altogether reactive manner: brute force, punctuated with promises of constitutional changes.

Which takes us back to question: is this an 'Arab revolution'? As the initial euphoria wears off, it's clear that one can't apply the term 'revolution' with a broad brush. We are not witnessing anything like an encore of East Europe, 1989. And, of course not, when revolution just touches the rim and bypasses areas where the history of the Arabic language, culture and religion runs deep.

Further, think again: one's revolution can easily become another's bloody sectarian conflict. Also, consider the double-standards being applied as protests spread far beyond Egypt: one set of rules for a 'vital' ally that hosts the US Navy's Fifth Fleet and another for a country presided over by a lunatic whom President Ronald Reagan famously called, exactly 25 years ago to this month, "the mad dog of Tripoli".

Is it an Arab spring? Any connotation of 'spring' with freedom movements continues to haunt us emotionally since the 'Prague Spring' of 1968 -short-lived and brutally crushed (wasn't Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Bahrain last month any different in spirit and intent?).

There is the problem of overpitching the term, too. Politically, culturally, economically and in strategic terms, Libya is as different from Yemen as Syria is from Bahrain. In Bahrain, for instance, one can still find rudimentary civil society institutions, but in Syria they are tightly controlled by the House of Assad for four decades. In Bahrain, there is also an opposition, which, just as the regime there, is divided along moderate and ultra-radical lines. Throw into that volatile mix the fact that the oil market is on the edge ever since the Libyan armed uprising, and the very thought of a spring is enough to strike the dread of high oil price-inspired stagflation in many G20 capitals.

So, don't the events unfolding now collectively represent an Arab awakening? Here we are, and this description would be closer to reality. It's fairly known the whys and wherefores of Arab nations getting deep into the mire of political inertia, dither, sclerosis and intolerance. Or into the lack of scientific, technological or philosophical progress - in those places without oil, not even material. But one trigger, and all that we have in the Arab street are heroes. That point is now known as the Mohamed Bouazizi moment, whose self-immolation in December in Tunisia sparked it all.

What's also known is that the West's paranoia: corrupt national security dictatorships need to be propped up because the alternative - Islamists - is even worse. In one stroke, Egypt has unmistakably proved that there is a huge, latent third force that is separate from the dictator and the Islamist class - an educated, tech savvy, middle class that can engage in dialogue, discussion and debate, all peacefully.

Since 9/11 particularly, one always hears about the 'silent' majority of moderate Muslims, but never had an opportunity to size it up. Who envisioned the sudden emergence of this force even in early January this year, when the conventional wisdom among all Middle East experts in the world was that Hosni Mubarak was on the way to re-election this September, maybe with 96% of the votes?

But then, an awakening, like a revolution, won't put food on your table. For that, you need to create more private sector and knowledge economy jobs. Which, in turn, depends on education, investment, some degree of openness, justice, rule of law, transparency and accountability.

The unemployment in Tunisia at the time of the uprising was 30% among under age 35. For every Arab nation having an education system that produces globally aware citizens, there's another whose system creates legions of semi-literate or ignorant jihadi sympathisers. In a closed place like Saudi Arabia, even the difference in educational institutions doesn't really matter.

But we are lucky. The youth in the Arab world has new heroes to look up to - and they are not of the Al-Qaeda variety. Tunisia and Egypt are now the bellwether: building and running democracy and civil institutions will be a long, tortuous process. Where they go in the coming months will determine the course of the Arab awakening as well as its spring and summer.