The
Destructive Potential is typically entailed in Economic Uncertainty – but it
can also be entailed in Moral Uncertainty [Socio-Political or Socio-Cultural
Uncertainty]. In the Charts below, only the Destructive Potential entailed in
Economic Uncertainty is shown. The Destructive Potential Entailed in Economic
Uncertainty Increases when the Economic Uncertainty Increases. Time Periods
with High Destructive Potential Give Rise to Propitious Opportunities for
Terrorism. Actions by Governments and Business Leaders to Reduce Extreme
Uncertainty, If Mismanaged, Likely Create Propitious Opportunities for
Catastrophic Terrorism. Terrorism Advantage Codes RED/GREEN Indicate
Advantage/Disadvantage to Attacker. The analysis below features only the
Destructive Potential entailed in Economic Uncertainty. The Indexes Are
Correlated with Selected Top News Items.

DEEP RED ALERT
is correlated with Potential HIGH PAYOFF for Attacker/HIGH RISK for Defense.

ORANGE

20-Jan-09

Economic
Uncertainty

Threat
Assessment Model and Forecast ─ What to Monitor

MI2
THREAT ASSESSMENT MODEL

The
DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL is entailed in ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY. The DESTRUCTIVE
POTENTIAL can be diffused by wise political and economic action or by a
market crash; when it is not, TERRORISTS (State and non-State) can exploit
the situation to convert it from "POTENTIAL" destructiveness into
"ACTUAL" destructiveness.

THREAT
FORECAST: WHAT TO MONITOR

Monitor
very carefully decreases in the EXTREME and VERY HIGH DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIALS,
following their peak values. These decreases are measures of the amount of
EXTREME and VERY HIGH DESTRUCTIVE "POTENTIALS" that can be
converted into EXTREME and VERY HIGH "ACTUAL" or "REAL"
TERRORISM, respectively.

The
impacts of the following items – on ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, on theDESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL that is entailed in
ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, and on IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE or GLOOM –, must also be
monitored very carefully:

19.
Attacks on/destabilization of U.S.-backed rulers/leaders. (Assassinations of
Lebanese general on 12-Dec-07; assassination of Benazir Bhutto on 27-Dec-07;
assassination of Col. Riyadh al-Samarrai, founder of the American-backed
Sunni Awakening Council in Iraq; resignation of Pakistan's President Pervez
Musharraf on 18-Aug-08.)

WAR

20a. A
government can take advantage of a TERRORISM RED ALERT and HIGH
PROPITIOUSNESS FOR TERRORISM as an OPPORTUNITY to attack its enemies.
(Examples: Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq and attack against the PKK
in late Feb-08; Israel's attack on Hamas and the killing of Palestinian
civilians from 26-Feb-08 through 1-Mar-08.)

20b.
Miscalculations can occur if a government attacks its enemies when the
TERRORISM ALERT CODE is BLUE or GREEN (CODES BLUE and GREEN mean DISADVANTAGE
TO ATTACKER). (Example: Georgia's operations in South Ossetia and Abkhazia
resulting in a Russian invasion of Georgia in early Aug-08.)

CATASTROPHIC
TERRORIST ATTACKS COULD BE CALCULATED TO WIDEN AND DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY THE
NEXT RECESSION – AND TRIGGER GLOBAL MARKET CRASHES.