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Who Survives This Bubble Team Scramble?

By Tom Dienhart, BTN.com Senior Writer -
3 years ago

Selection Sunday is March 11. Time is running out for teams to enhance their resumes for an NCAA tourney at-large berth. Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Indiana all look like locks for the Big Dance, with one winning the automatic bid and the others at-large spots. And Penn State and Nebraska appear to be but out.

But what about Purdue, Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois, the Big Ten’s bubble teams? Yes, one could claim the Big Ten’s automatic bid by winning the league tourney, but that’s a long shot. Instead, each likely will need to earn an at-large bid if it wants to play in the NCAA tourney.

PURDUERecord: 18-10 overall; 8-7 Big TenRPI: 50Record vs. Top 25: 0-7February record: 3-3Good wins: Iona, Temple, Miami (Fla.)Bad losses: Butler; at Penn StateGames left: at Michigan; Penn State; at Indiana (see full schedule)My take: No wins over Top 25 teams—and few other impressive victories. Still, I think the Boilermakers will lock up an at-large bid with a ninth Big Ten win, which should come at Penn State. Would a win in the league tourney help? No doubt, but I don’t think it will be necessary with a 9-9 record in the best conference in America.

NORTHWESTERNRecord: 16-11 overall; 6-9 Big TenRPI: 47Record vs. Top 25: 1-6February record: 4-3Good wins: Seton Hall, Michigan State, IowaBad losses: IllinoisGames left: at Penn State; Ohio State; at Iowa (see full schedule)My take: That home overtime loss to Michigan was killer, but the Wildcats are playing well down the stretch. They also have some nice wins and few bad losses. I think NU could get its first NCAA bid with an 8-10 league mark and with two wins in the Big Ten tourney. Would one win in the league tourney be enough with an 8-10 Big Ten record? Hmmmm. Likely losing big man Luka Mirkovic to an ankle injury for the rest of the season would hurt.

IOWARecord: 15-13 overall; 7-8 Big TenRPI: 139Record vs. Top 25: 4-3February record: 4-2Good wins: Wisconsin (twice), Michigan, IndianaBad losses: Campbell, Clemson, Nebraska, at Penn StateGames left: at Illinois; at Nebraska; Northwestern (see full schedule)My take: The Hawkeyes’ hopes looked bleak as February dawned (11-11 record), but they are now one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten. Most aspects of Iowa’s resume look NCAA worthy, but can the Hawkeyes overcome that horrid RPI? The good news: Iowa has a good shot to finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. But it still may need at least one win in the Big Ten tourney.

MINNESOTARecord: 17-11 overall; 5-10 Big TenRPI: 77Record vs. Top 25: 1-5February record: 1-5Good wins: Virginia Tech, at IndianaBad losses: None, reallyGames left: Indiana; at Wisconsin; Nebraska (see full schedule)My take: The home loss to Michigan State may have been the end of the Gophers’ hopes. Minnesota ended January with a 4-1 run, but it is struggling as the month comes to an end with a couple of tough games left. Yes, there really are no bad losses (Iowa twice?), but the Gophers have a bad RPI and no mojo.

ILLINOISRecord: 16-12 overall; 5-10 Big TenRPI: 73Record vs. Top 25: 3-4February record: 0-6Good wins: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Michigan StateBad losses: at Penn State, Northwestern, at NebraskaGames left: Iowa, Michigan, at Wisconsin (see full schedule)My take: It’s probably time to stick a fork in the Fighting Illini. Yes, there are some nice wins, but Illinois is in a free fall with nine losses in 10 games. And three tough games remain. NIT, here we come!

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1 Comment

i knew that iu, michigan, msu, wisconsin and osu were locks for the ncaa tournament. and then i thought it would be between purdue and northwestern to get at large bids. but iowa may be able to steal a bid. i did not realalize they were on such a hot streak

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