I could have written pretty much every word of what you just wrote, BJ. Initially I feared War Horse as the spoiler, but a week or so ago it came to me that the gorgeous Hugo was the more likely way for voters to disappoint me. It would be very much in the vein of Pan's Labyrinth -- a movie I quite liked, especially for its visuals, and whose victory I might have cheered in any other year.

And ditto on the black and white-rs. All these time we've rooted for a cool b&w choice, and now's the year they might go that direction. As Sabin said a while back, it feels like Ocar voters live to disappoint Oscar fans.

Hugo strikes me as the most likely Oscar spoiler, based on the precedent for the year's most gorgeously designed production to triumph over superior photography (I'd say Inception fit that bill last year, as did Pan's Labyrinth, The Fellowship of the Ring, and, much more outrageously, Memoirs of a Geisha). On its own terms, Hugo was pretty beautifully shot -- that opening tracking shot was a real wow -- but The Tree of Life is just in another class entirely. A long-overdue win for Emmanuel Lubezki would be the award I'd root for most this year.

After hoping so strongly for so many black-and-white movies to win this category in recent years (The White Ribbon, Good Night, and Good Luck, The Man Who Wasn't There), I'd find it ironic for the (admittedly lovingly shot) The Artist to walk off with this prize over my fave.

OscarGuy wrote:Lubezki wasn't nominated at BAFTA, so we had our first real look at who could possibly win the Oscar over it. That film was The Artist. I think The Artist could end up sweeping several awards and this would go hand-in-hand. Ooh! It's black-and-white, didn't you know? I'm reminded of Lubezki's 1998 win for The Thin Red Line with the ASC and then lost to Spielberg at the Oscars. I don't think that will happen again and I really think Tree of Life will still win, but no one should be too surprised if it goes home empty-handed.

It was John Toll for Thin Red Line. I think The Assassination of Jesse James cinematography nod reminds me most of Tree of Life this year. As much as I want to see Lubezki win here, I think if may be a bit too "cool" for the Academy. I too think The Artist will win here. If not The Artist then Hugo. What a dull evening we're all in for in a week or so.

Lubezki wasn't nominated at BAFTA, so we had our first real look at who could possibly win the Oscar over it. That film was The Artist. I think The Artist could end up sweeping several awards and this would go hand-in-hand. Ooh! It's black-and-white, didn't you know? I'm reminded of Lubezki's 1998 win for The Thin Red Line with the ASC and then lost to Spielberg at the Oscars. I don't think that will happen again and I really think Tree of Life will still win, but no one should be too surprised if it goes home empty-handed.

Wesley Lovell

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My guess is that this is a prelude to an Oscar win, for two reasons. First off, Tree of Life is much more conventionally beautiful than Children of Men...the Academy has traditionally placed lighting and color over camera movement in this category, and Tree of Life fits much more into that realm than Children of Men did (it was, in many ways, an "ugly" film, even if that was purposeful). Second, there doesn't seem to be a Pan's Labyrinth hiding in the midst here to usurp it. I guess a sweep could carry The Artist here, but I doubt it.

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