Experts Confounded:
Turnout Higher In Ohio In 2004

Despite a record
number of registered voters this year, intense interest in
the presidential election and the historic outcome, Ohio's
voter turnout was lower Tuesday than in 2004, unofficial
statistics show.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is
reporting 67 percent turnout, compared with 72 percent in
2004. She had been predicting 80 percent turnout this
time.

The percentage could increase as provisional
ballots, overseas ballots and other outstanding votes are
included during the official canvass in the coming
weeks.

But overall turnout still is expected to be lower
than in 2004, leaving experts at a loss to explain it --
especially because the number of registered voters
increased by 319,000 from four years ago.

"That's rather
puzzling, given the activity level," said Paul Beck, a
political-science professor at Ohio State University.

The
total number of votes cast Tuesday declined in 69 of Ohio's
88 counties when compared with official totals from 2004.
In Franklin County, for example, about 10,000 fewer votes
were cast this year.

Although Brunner's office said the
totals include 181,000 provisional ballots reported so far
statewide, some counties said that's not the case. But the
turnout percentage still will be lower than 2004.

Beck and
others say one possible reason is a lack of enthusiasm among
some Republicans for Sen. John McCain this year compared
with President Bush in 2004.

McCain received more than
317,000 fewer votes than Bush statewide, based on early
unofficial totals.

But Sen. Barack Obama also garnered
nearly 22,000 fewer votes statewide than Sen. John Kerry
did in Ohio four years ago, despite a massive
get-out-the-vote effort.

Another interesting result is
that the counties with the largest increase in turnout from
four years ago -- Butler, Delaware and Warren -- are solid
Republican or GOP-leaning counties.

And the counties with
the largest declines -- Cuyahoga, Montgomery and Stark --
are more Democratic areas.

Obama garnered more total votes
than Kerry did in those three Republican counties. And even
though his margin of victory in many Democratic counties
was larger than Kerry's, the president-elect's total vote
still was lower in those counties.

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