MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0506
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...FAR NW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130...
VALID 042330Z - 050100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 130
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
WW 130 WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WAVY...CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED STATIONARY FRONT FROM N OF STJ SWWD TO N OF DDC. MOST OF
THE TSTM ACTIVITY IS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER ANEMIC WITH REGIONAL VAD
PROFILES SAMPLING 6000M WINDS OF LESS THAN 30 KT. IN
CONTRAST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. WHILE SOME TRANSIENT STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE...SEVERE THREAT WILL MORE LIKELY BE A
RESULT OF STORM MERGERS AND/OR PRECIPITATION LOADING. INITIAL LINE
OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE A SECONDARY LINE FORMS FARTHER N AS PARCELS ARE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY TO HIGHER LFC.
OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP -- I.E. ALIGNMENT OF THE MOIST AXIS AND LLJ
IN THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT -- APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING /REFER TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION FROM WPC/.
..MOSIER.. 05/04/2015
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39349952 39859883 41039459 40719344 39029384 37869902
39349952