You can get CHA +4 and NYK +7.5 on Diamond (DSI), but the line consensus on the other 4 books I use to grade my picks is one half-point below, so I'll make this record as real as possible and therefore, I'm not going to use lines that only a few can really get. The Total on BOS @ CHA is now 179, so I hope I don't get stiffed by another half-point loss like yesterday. :P

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 40-21 and +5.4 units won/61 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.02 finished with a 4-4 and -0.36 units won/8 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.01 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.30 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.29 finished with a 4-3 and +0.64 units won/7 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.28 finished with a 3-3 and -0.27 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.27 finished with a 4-5 and -1.36 units lost/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.

Toronto had made a great run when the season started. The power that Turkogly added to this team was amazing, combining a power shoot behind the arc to a power shoot in the paint.

Despite these 2 starters, Bosh and Turkogly, this team had also the improvement of their other players, which give them a extremely power game, with great rebounders adding that power to the offense shots behind the arc.

They struggled during 5 games, but turned around, winning the last two games on the road, including a blowout win on Chicago, where they're the underdog.

So, despite this team had suffered a letdown spot due to lack of accuracy, they are finally coming back and nothing better than receiving one of the worst teams on the league, to show their supporters that they are definitely playoff runners material.

Minnesota has their moment passing, taking 2 wins in L4 games. Great moment for a team with a 3-17 record. However, even with merit, this team takes advantage on some "sleaziness" of their opponents, and I don't think that they are able to keep this run, as they are 4-0 ATS in L4.

The truth is, this team is struggling a lot on their offense, and can't make the difference on the defense either. So, I think it will be really hard for Minnesota to keep the pace here and if the Raptors' defense doesn't work, I still believe in a double digits win here, as the offense can make this game an easy winner by themselves.

Pick: Toronto Raptors -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 38-30 and +4.58 units won/68 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.02 finished with a 4-4 and -0.36 units won/8 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.01 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.30 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.29 finished with a 4-3 and +0.64 units won/7 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.28 finished with a 3-3 and -0.27 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 36-29 and +3.73 units won/65 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.02 finished with a 4-4 and -0.36 units won/8 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.01 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.30 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.29 finished with a 4-3 and +0.64 units won/7 units risked on point spreads and totals.

Without Granger, Pacers aren't the some scoring team as with him playing. He is their best scorer, and in these kind of teams, a all-star player is a heavy loss, particularly one that is one of the biggest reasons why Pacers usually plays with a high pace. After 4 games this season without Granger, the team are showing a slowest pace, scoring 86, 91 and 92 points in 3 home games. The highest score the team achieved without Granger was on GSW. In that game, the team scored 107 points, but they were forced to play in the same pace they usually plays with Granger. And they couldn't keep that pace, losing that game by 19 points.

They will host Nets, a team that finally start to win games, after one of the worst streaks on NBA history. But after they won against Bobcats, they went 2 games ago to Chicago and made their second win. So, after some enthusiasm that have tricked them, they lost the last one at home, against GSW, a bad defender team. Scoring 89 points at home against a bad defense team is not a good sign. They didn't even fought that gimme, it was a easy win for GSW.

With this, I think that will be hard to have here a over. The line is to high, and should be around 187, not 199! Indiana Pacers are slowing their game to cover the holes that Granger absence could make. Averaging only 90 points at home in this condition, they will face a team that have less than 90 points when playing on the road. Nets are again in a bad spot after 2 wins in 3 games. They should think their game again, as they are showing offense problems even against bad defenders. So i can't see here a high score game, as Pacers needs to find their best game without Granger (they are 1-3), and one thing is certain: Their best game without Granger isn't run and gun. In the other hand, we have a Nets team that needs to improve their offense, but playing on the road is not the right spot to do so, and Indiana is a little bit better in defense than other teams that Nets couldn't score 3 digits points.

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 32-29 and +0.09 units won/61 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.02 finished with a 4-4 and -0.36 units won/8 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.01 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.11.30 finished with a 4-2 and +1.64 units won/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 25-27 and -4.23 units won/52 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.11 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.02 finished with a 4-4 and -0.36 units won/8 units risked on point spreads and totals.

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 24-25 and -3.1 units won/49 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.12 finished with a 3-2 and +0.77 units lost/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.11 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.03 finished with a 2-1 and +0.82 units won/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 24-24 and -2.12 units won/48 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.13 finished with a 2-0 and +1.82 units lost/2 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.12 finished with a 3-2 and +0.77 units lost/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.11 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.04 finished with a 5-7 and -2.45 units lost/12 units risked on point spreads and totals.

TommyGold

12-14-2009, 11:22 PM

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic: Under 208 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Orlando has this game on their hands, without Granger the Pacers will lower their pace and score a lot less points. Murphy, who has been one of the best team scorers will have a difficult task today and therefore I expect a weak game from Indiana. I don't see Orlando giving their best to win the game, they should play it with a slow pace too, they should start with a nice lead and then they'll just manage the lead.

Both teams have bad records, however the Warriors still one game here and there in their last games, the same can't be said of the 76ers. But the Sixiers won another soul with Iverson, even if he only plays only 30 minutes, he is a good scorer and against a weak defense, he can make the difference with Iguodala. Philadelphia has fought on their games, only losing on the last quarter and today they face a team which should lose against them in the paint, plus their good perimeter shooters.

Boston Celtics @ Memphis Grizzlies: Under 194.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Boston has an excellent defense and thanks to that, they are scoring several straight wins, specially on the road, where they close even more the ways to their arc. They'll face a very strong team in the paint and I expect a close game, a strategic one and where the sagacity should prevail. After a great win yesterday, Memphis should not give up this game very soon and that might be enough for the game to have a slow pace. At home, the Grizzlies also have a strong defense and it seems very unlikely that any team can reach the 100 points score.

Dallas is a spoiled team, they don't make any effort and their displays have been average. They're coming from 3 wins and receive a team with a losing record and I don't expect them to score much more points than their opponent. On the other side, the Hornets have done an awful display and will surely give their best tonight. Their roster has improved since the start of the season and I expect them to fight for the game, at least they should have the "heart" for it.

Denver has given big beatings against their visitors but on their last games they've passed a rough patch, but managed to recover on the last quarter when trailing by 10 points. The Nuggets are a well structured team when it is time to decide the game, they are unforgiven and they give their best to win the game. Tonight they face Oklahoma City, maybe the team which matches best talent with youth. Thunder cand goo things very good but they also lose their heads easily. Against a team like the Nuggets, they'll hardly surpass Denver's "guile" and due to their youth, they'll easily lower their arms.

Ontie

12-15-2009, 08:22 PM

very nice job Tommy so far...
very useful picks, congrat!

what do you think about my pick C.BOSH to score UNDER 25,5 points @1.83 @Miami?

TommyGold

12-15-2009, 08:53 PM

NBA 2009.12.15, final 4 picks:

New York Knicks @ Charlotte Bobcats: New York Knicks -4.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 22-19 and +1.06 units won/41 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.14 finished with a 3-2 and +0.73 units lost/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.13 finished with a 2-0 and +1.82 units lost/2 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.12 finished with a 3-2 and +0.77 units lost/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.11 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.05 finished with a 6-3 and +2.46 units won/9 units risked on point spreads and totals.

TommyGold

12-15-2009, 09:27 PM

very nice job Tommy so far...
very useful picks, congrat!

what do you think about my pick C.BOSH to score UNDER 25,5 points @1.83 @Miami?

Hard to read that game, everything could happen. So, I canīt give you my opinion, as I donīt have a clear opinion. But good luck for you!

Ontie

12-15-2009, 10:04 PM

now @1.71 (Bet365) CB4 Under 25,5 pps

TommyGold

12-15-2009, 10:16 PM

CORRECTION: my first NBA pick is Charlotte Bobcats -4.5 and not New York Knicks -4.5. My appologies for this mistake.

The New York Knicks are in a good moment and their run and gun game is finally working. However, their win in Atlanta will hardly be repeated and today the Knicks face a team with a game very similar with Atlanta's one at home: The Bobcats defend very well and they don't neglect their offense. It will be a very difficult game for the Knicks to sell their game and therefore, it will be very hard for them to keep it close. Charlotte thanks to their defense and with the addition of Jackson, has also become a dangerous team on the offense, and so far the Bobcats are a very reliable home team to follow.

TommyGold

12-15-2009, 11:07 PM

Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls: Over 193 -110 (1.91) The Greek

The Bulls are doing incredible mistakes and it is rare to see them playing decent basketball as the team rarely meets itself... Yet, we cannot forget that we are talking about the "Chicago Bulls" and on the games when they host the champions, they simply will not pay homage and there will be a demand for a good performance, since the Bulls has good scorers in their roster. The Lakers were a bad road team and which played without any enthusiasm, but since the return of Gasol, they had a nice wins streak and now the team has won a new soul, where the offense is a major part of the Lakers' game. I expect here a pretty game, with the Bulls chasing their losses and the Lakers taking advantage of the great permeability of the Bulls defense.

Detroit has 5 wins in their last 5 games, yet those wins were achieved with a lot of heart or against teams that didn't took the game seriously. The Pistons are a team that easily incurs in overconfidence and has several teams without rhythm and playing time. The Rockets are a team that when faces more permissive and less committed teams in the game, they don't forgive it and even the Ariza's suspension should not bet enough for Houston to let this game go away, since they've good shooters and also nice defenders.

San Antonio Spurs are not a road team, despite their wins as visitors on their last games, which were achieved against teams which have bad defenses or weak offenses. Today, the Spurs visit the Suns and these might be permeable on the defense, but they don't neglect their offense, being the best offense in the league. Phoenix is unbeatable at home and surely it won't be a shaky road team that will spoil their home record, specially when we know how much rivalry exists between the Spurs and the Suns

L10 Days NBA 2009/2010 Pointspreads and Totals Tracker: 19-17 and +0.33 units won/36 units risked.
NBA 2009.12.15 finished with a 3-1 and +1.73 units won/4 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.14 finished with a 3-2 and +0.73 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.13 finished with a 2-0 and +1.82 units won/2 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.12 finished with a 3-2 and +0.77 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.11 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.

NBA 2009.12.10 finished with a 0-3 and -3 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.08 finished with a 1-2 and -1.09 units lost/3 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.07 finished with a 2-4 and -2.18 units lost/6 units risked on point spreads and totals.
NBA 2009.12.06 finished with a 4-1 and +2.64 units won/5 units risked on point spreads and totals.

Memphis has made great games, winning one, and stamping his foot to teams like Boston, where they lost by fewer and fewer details. Despite being an enjoyable team to watch play, thanks to time have the lane and good shots are not a team that knows how to make their's athletic skills to defend. The good performances and good games, has been constant, that is to be against teams that are not applied towards the defense. But today will play home to Atlanta, a team that defends very well especially at home. If you have defended very well, the team joined the cardapia have an excellent attack, where he played leading to Composing Easy baskets. Your attack goes in high, with an average of more than 120 points scored at home in the last games. Faced with a team that very well attack and defend very well, it's hard to see Memphis maintain the exhibits, thanks to its defensive sloppiness.

The coach of Sixiers finally changed the layout of the game, making his players play well faster when pos Brand on the bench in favor of another guard. The result was immediate, an easy victory against the GSW, with plenty of points scored. The fact is that despite his age Iverson is player for this type of game, and Iguodala will also play today, that he's equally well with games rapids. Given the likely scenario of the Sixiers maintain that pace for today, can be a fast game, and Cleveland should not certainly want to stay backward ... even further when you have nothing less than LeBron James, that if necessary alone takes 40 points of the hat. Cleveland is probably prudent for the type of game you will face, and not much would get the game, because they also have good shooters.

Indiana had dropped back to level with the lesion of Granger, having to fit a new pace of play. But Dunleavy returned, but he is a player much slower, and not to give any better against teams who defend well, as is the case of Charllote. They go to play at a slower pace, and in the last 3 games at home, and so won the Nets, having lost the rest of the games. Today, against Charllote, which is a team that defends well, are expected to have enough trouble ultrupassar the barrier. Their defense has never been anything impressive, and the truth is that Charllote has improved immensely in this regard and can now claim his second victory away from home, that they have improved since the offensive aspects earned their first away game, they lost in OT by 1 in Dallas, and lost only well in the Spurs. Note therefore clearly an improvement, which now should be to your advantage, your good attack together with its defensive profile (which is particularly evident outside the home). The fact that B2B game to Charllote can influence the odds, but the team does not get wrong with this and are 4-2 in that situation.

Detroit finally has the return of Hamilton, who as expected, has become "the jewel in the crown". However, lesions of Bynum and Gordon, are equally important, that they have acted as the best in the absence of Hamilton. Even play today, are with little pace, since not play a week due to the knee. They had a good phase, with 5 victories followed, but over-confidence betrayed them as expected. For today I again a poor game from them, as Hamilton after some time away, you have to play a B2B game, something that should not hold well at this stage, and the absences of two of its best basis, the team will have a hard time at home in New Orleans, that this team back to their level, with the team finally produce the expected. New Orleans can not afford to lose many more games at home, and CP3 again in great shape, will surely think again to try to go to the playoffs.

For tomorrow, NBA 2009.12.19 might be a pass since i'll be with my family for some quality time. :D

NBA 2009.12.18, final 7 picks:

Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta Hawks -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Utah is a good team, playing a good game, and with a 8-3 record in the last games. They played 3 games in that time on the road, and only won one, and the other loss was the only loss at home. The spot for this game is that Utah really struggles on the road, with a 4-6 record, but they specially lost on the road when visiting good teams with a positive streak and playing well at that moment. And it's what will happen today. Atlanta is playing really good so far, giving many blowout wins lately at home. Another important aspect is that Deron Willians got heart in is leg last game, and could play with a lower pace than usual for him.

There isn't much to say about this matchup. Two teams that struggles on defense, but can play well on offense. However the advantage are in Memphis side, as they have size and good rebounders in the paint, and are a team with facility to score in the point as well, and also have good shoters behind the arc.

With Billups out, Nuggets are not the some king of team, as he is the brain. THeir defense will be worst today, as Billups is their best defender, Carmelo could be a great scorer today, however he can have some disciplinary problems, and the pace of the team will not be the same, as Lawson is a rookie who needs to increase is team game. NO are improving game after game, and today CP3 will have no one to stop him or slow him down. Peja and West are improving as well, as long as Okafor. I've see a nice spot here, particulary with these odds.

Detroit after a good streak, returned to the place that we all have seen so far this season. A struggling team. Bynum will play with pains, and if Struckey is probable, Gordon e Hamilton aren't probable to play today. After all, these are the best scorers for the team, and if the team struggles a lot with Bynum, Stuckey and Gordon in good shape, imagine without them. We have seen in last 2 games, Or they play a bad game, without sense, or they seems to go ok, and suddenely their mind stops. Yes, going in Detroit will always be hard, at least without Hamilton in good shape and Prince. Oklahoma is with a good record, and after a bad last season due to their youth, they are showing this year that they are already adpated.Oklahoma people have started again to go see some NBA games, and are making a great support for the team. And it is important, as this team is young and can be push by the public. Against teams that are no solid or cohesive, Oklahoma don't forgive, and control the game. Today is what I expect. Oklahoma is improving their ex-rookies as weel as their new rookie, starting to have a great basketball game. Hosting a broken team, with key players injuries, is like a sweet to them, and I think that they will grab it and "eat it".

What a value! To start let's just see: after playing at home against Houston and won 121-103, Dallas has play 7 home games. In those 7 games, there aren't any convicting wins!!! Yes, Dallas is playing bad at home. But is not their game that is bad, they play enough, but they are playing with an excess of confidence and as spoiled kids. Is last onte, they almost permit a comeback to NO in 4š quarter. Won the previous one in OT by 1 point against Charllote. By two points against Philadelphia, benefiting of an error by Sixiers. Before these games, the big loss to GSW. And the two previous games, one won by 2 points, and another won on OT.
I'm the only one to see something here?
Houston are improving their game, with solide defense, but without Ming, they are playing with a higher pace and scoring more. T-mac returned almost after a year, and it's earning minutos and get on the rythm. The team is solid, is all ok, and it's advise about how Dallas play, as they already lost 2 games this season against them. Don't forget that they aren't so bad in road as some thing, they are with a positive record of 8-7 despite the 2 last games were losses.
Dallas will host today another rival. At home, one place where they are 9-3 but shaking like hell in every games. They are lucky to be with that great record, as they didn't deserv all that wins due to the mentality they showed.
So, today we will have a game between to neighboors and rivals. Tipically this games are won by foreign team. However I can see here a great spot. Dallas will show up in this game with confidence, thinking that it will be easy game as they already won, and by many, two games against Houston this year. However, Houston isn't a team to be carefuless with, as they take every chances they got to control and stay leading the game. Today I expect that Houston will show up with the right mentality to the game, and they wish some revenge from the last games. Against a spoiled and with an excesse of confidence team, I think that Dallas will taste a deserved loss after the loss against GSW, as they are not playing enough and keep the right mentality during the games.

Detroit has been quite good at home, winning last 5 games. That's a boost that the team had, with 6 wins in 7 games. But since that, they lost 3 on the road, and lost their momentum, has they didn't had any chance to win those games. Lakers are improving a lot, and in the lat games, they only lost on Utah, but they will want to end this roadtrip well. They got a big advantage on the paint, as they will face and old and lazy Ben Wallace, and in the backcourt, Pistons got good players, but some of them are playing with injuries, others will not play, So, they will not produce enough, and with few players in that position, they will have no rotation and it will be prejudicial to Pistons. Against a team with Kobe, it will be hard to Piston even try their chance in this game.

Without Dirk, Mavs always struglles, after all, he is their best player. Kidd is an old player and will have to be the one to take the lead of the mavs game. Kidd is a smart player, and he knows is limit and he is slower than few years ago. So, he will try to make this game a game with a low pace, and press Mo as well.

Shaquille will play also, and another reason to expect a low scoring game. But even so, Cavaliers is not the kind of team that pressionate to play in a higer pace. They just go with the flow. But I expect today a a bad game to be real, as Dallas needs to improve their home game, and for that, Kidd will take the lead and think all plays. Cleveland are not beeing a smashing team as before, and LeBron is the only key of the team, however, it's unlikely to make him score 50 points, as Clev needs to be intelligent in this game as Mavs.

Chalotte is one of the best defender teams, second in the league in allowing points, 8th in 3 points and 9th in FG%. And if they wera also one of the worst teams in offense as well, they have improved that a lot after the trades they made. Jackson is a pure scorer, and has give more power to their offense, and the results were immediate. Despite the 1-11 record on road, Charllote in last four road games have won in Washington, blowout loss in San Antonio, loss in OT in Dallas, and a defeat by small margin in Indiana.

Knicks had a good moment, but this team still needs to improve their game in order to keep a good record. They got some wins, over no-defense teams, or teams that think it would be to easy. The normal game for Knicks is run and gun, however, when they start to miss, they usually miss a lot, and lost.

Despite the good record of Knicks at home in last games, Charllote is a good defending team and will implant that in today game. When Knicks faces a good defending team, they really strugles, and it's why i think Charlotte got value today.

Sixiers have adopted a faster game, moving one men of the frontcourt to the bench in exchange for a guard. The results finnaly appear, and after a 11 losing games streak, they finnally won some games and are fighting with the mininum conviction to. Washington are going thru a bad moment, with 1-7 in last 8 games. The teams is under some questions because they have 3 all stars finnally playing togehter and some young that are showing a good improvment, however the results still missing. But today, we will have a game between Sixiers, a team that is starting to play a a kind of run and gun, and Wizards, a team that have great scorer, but is not a good defender. Due to the rumors of trades, I believe that the Wizards players will try to show all they know to try a trade to a good team.

Even without Wallace and with Jackson leaving the game after half game played, Charlotte gived a good responde in their last game on NY. Even without these 2 players, key players, the team suffered from an last minutes inspiration of Gallinari and and lack of accuracy in those minutes. Today, the team should be ok again to play, and I expect a blowout win.

Detroit is sufering big problems. They are playing a bad basketball, but it seems unlike to improve it for now, as they got all their best players with problems. Some of those players will not play, other, like Villanueva and Bynum, will play with pains. Without Villanueva in the frontcourt, Ben Wallace doesn't have the age to stand in the paint and make something. Villanueva will probably play, but like he said, he got sharp pains during any step he make. So, it will be hard to make a good performance. Something with Bynum, and that will leave Stuckey alone and without any credible rotation.

Charlotte is a great defender particulary at home, and will keep saying that after the trades, they had improved their offense to join their good defense. And that's the truth. Facing a broken team is a game easy to play for team, and Detroit haven't any argue to even try to fight for this game.

Atlanta is playing a great game, giving blowout losses for those they hosted. However, on the road the conversation is differente. They are not able to smash the opponents as well as they do at home. They are 7-5 on the road, but for example, they lost 2 games in last 4 road game in Detroit and in Chicago. Against desperate teams. Their edge is usually on their big and atlethic frontcourt, with Joe Johnson dishing or scoring points behind. However, Johson made 40 points last game in Chicago, but it wasn't enough to give Atlanta a win. So, this roadtrip they will end only few days after christmas, didn't start well.

Minnesota will probably have Gomes again today. He is probable, and after Love returned from his injurie, this team had a great improvment. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, and in their last 5 home games they only lost one game without a chance, as they won 2, lost 1 by 1 point and another by 2 points.

Timberwolves have concentration and the will to win today SU. It will not be easy, but this is a real chance, as they strong enough to hold Atlanta frontcourt, and have two great and motivated guards behing. Atlanta is losing some "gas" when facing teams that give their blood in the field to try their chances, and on the road, they are not so strong. Johson could be again their hero today, as they will have troubles in frontcourt, but its unlikely to happen, as he already made a great performance last game, and it's hard to expect another performance as his last.

Golden State are a team that base their game on run and gun style. They got great scorers, but in the frontcourt they have no advantage right now because of their injuries. They still have great scorer behind the arc, however isn't enough when they face teams that are concentrated. They are now dealing with that injuries, but it's probable that after Christmas they will have the return of their 2 best players in the frountcourt. So, they probably will be real and only target a game to return to victories after Christmas. This team is 1-9 in their last 10 games and have several trade rumors, as Maggete isn't appreciated by the fans anymore, even knowing he his a great scorer. The truth is that this team can make bug surprises, however they have to face teams that think the game is won before the start.

Today they will face Grizzlies, a team that is improving a lot game after game, with a solid team from front to back. This will be their last game before Christmas, and are coming from great wins at home, which will probably be a great boost to their confidence. Memphis are much better now, with high control of the games, as they are can combine a good offense with a great rebounders, either in defense and offense. It will probably enough to manage today game against a no-confident team.

This will be a matchup between two contenders to the championship. But isn't all. It's probably a game between two runners to MVP title.

Cleveland after LeBron turned a star, have two kinds of teams. The first kind is a team that it's only LeBron plus 4 players. Since they signed Mo Willians, and with improvement of their centers. But the team get a little bit comfortable again, and still to much dependent of LeBron. For this year they signed Shaq, however it's only a big name, and isn't anymore a big player in quality terms. So, even we thought that this team would improve from last year with this sign, the truth is that the team isn't corresponding so well this season. They already have 8 losses, isn't much, but for the expectations is a little bit to much. They are struggling against teams that are showing a good game, as they are a little bit less effective in their defensive, as their centers aren't producing the expected.

Lakers are 16-1 after the return of Gasol. They are playing well, and are strong in the paint. This team is the actual champion, and are already launched to make a great season. This team, even when they slowdown, are able to win. Even with a broken finger, Kobe led this team to some straight wins, showing to everyone what is a champion. Their offense is going great particularly at home, and they usually allow less than 95 points. If you thing that they have an average of 105 points scored, we can conclude that their average is a win by 10 points. Show how ease it his, and this team is invincible at home since the return of Gasol, the key to a great improvement for this team.

Today we can expect two different teams. Cavaliers will try their best, with LeBron making a great game for sure. Shaq will return for the house where he was a big star and a champion, but he can't play many minutes. In the paint, there is a huge advantage to Lakers, and will be probably the key for this game. LeBron will be the best scorer for Cleveland and they will have to wait for some inspiration for another player, for example, Mo Willians. Lakers doesn't have to wait for anything. Their players are all good scorers, and this team enjoy and loves to play this big matches against another contenders. It will not take their foot off the accelerator even when they get in control of the game.

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -5.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

Christmas should be a happy day for players. We can expect some Christmas spirit today, and the effect will be probably a soft defense, as both team will not be to hard doing something that they aren't good to.

Clippers are a team with good scorers. They have great scorers behind the arc as Davis and Gordon, and great scorers in the paint, such as Kaman and Camby. This team average normally 100 points allowed and the some on scored, but the tendency is making this numbers groin, as they are with 101 points scored and allowed in last 5.

Suns is a well known team. In 12 home games, only once they missed the target of 100 points scored. At home, this team was invincible until 2 games ago. In last 2 games, the team suffered the first and second home loss. Something strange, as they were showing a great game led by the veteran Nash.

This matchup have all to be a comfortable over. Some joy due to the holiday, two teams adept of offensive game, one bad defender as host and another as visitor, and a team that will be try to win this game with all they got. Suns can't miss another win at home and today will fight hard. And when they fight hard, it means that they will give all they got on offense. However, Clippers aren't making easy the game in this roadtrip, and normally scores 100 points even against good defensive teams. Against a no-defense team, it will be probably be higher.

Pick: Over 210.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

TommyGold

12-25-2009, 04:24 PM

Miami @2.18 (2 Units)

GL

Good luck!!! :wavey:

Bleeth

12-25-2009, 04:30 PM

Tommy what do you think about LeBron over 29.5 ?

Bleeth

12-25-2009, 04:32 PM

Good luck!!! :wavey:

Thanks Tommy, as you see i changed my Username (from YasmineBleeth to just Bleeth) and Avatar in hope that maybe now there will be more good predictions (especially NHL) :wavey:

TommyGold

12-25-2009, 06:45 PM

Tommy what do you think about LeBron over 29.5 ?

I think that bookies were smart about that line. There is no doubt that we will be the big scorer for Cleveland. However, sometimes LeBron is spared when there is nothing to do.

Ontie

12-25-2009, 08:56 PM

is there in Nba history a more pathetic team than actual Knicklebockers? what a disgrace for this sport

TommyGold

12-25-2009, 09:04 PM

Thanks Tommy, as you see i changed my Username (from YasmineBleeth to just Bleeth) and Avatar in hope that maybe now there will be more good predictions (especially NHL) :wavey:

Straight Up Winner! :worship:

Bleeth

12-25-2009, 09:16 PM

Miami @2.18 (2 Units)

WIN :dance:

Bleeth

12-25-2009, 09:35 PM

@1.36 on Lakers , oh cmon you blood sucking bookies, why don't you just give the title to Lakers right now and spare me these crappy odds :rolleyes:

This is a matchup where a western conference team will host a eastern conference team. More than a month ago, Jazz went to Philadelphia won 112-90, something changed meanwhile, however I think that those changes just increase our spot.

Sixiers are now playing a faster game, has they had taking out one center to add one more guard in their style of game. This was a turning point, however, they still missing results. There is no doubt that they stated to discuss more the game, and after 12 straight losses, they already won 2 and lost another in OT in their last 5 games. They team weren't a good defender before these changes, however, they get worst after it. The only improvement was in their offense, and the add of Iverson only improves this effects, better offense to worst defense. This sign was to reimburse the lost for injuries of Louis Williams, but he returned last match. But today we will probably see Sixiers without Iverson, and so, this will be a match with the old players playing a new kind of game due to Iverson sign.

Jazz are a home team. In Salt Lake city they got always supporters, great fans in every game, and this is an arena where referees usually turns supporters of the home team as well. The team has maintained their key players from last year, but this season they are struggling a little bit despite the positive record. The truth is that they can be a contenders if they play a good game as every one knows they can. They are showing it some times, but they have to improve it if they want to be in the PO, and there is no doubt that playoffs are their minimum achievement to this season. This Christmas break can be a turning point to this team, and I expect it.

For today, there is a huge advantage for Utah Jazz, as they are a good defenders at home. With the kind of game that Sixiers will take to Utah, there is no doubt that Jazz knows handle it. It's the kind of game that makes Jazz shine, as they can play a fast game as well, and show some strength on their defense as well. With a high pace, there is no team who can leave Utah happy, and Jazz usually outscored opponents when they win.

Pick: Utah Jazz -7 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Antonio Spurs @ Milwaukee Bucks

Both teams are passing a bad moment. But these 3 days off, will be an opportunities to think about their moment, and improving where bot teams can be strong, as defense.

Milwaukee is 4-12 in last 16, after a good start. They have Redd ok after an injure, Bogut that is a good defender, and a great improvement of Ilyasova. They also had accuracy in the draft, choosing the best rookie so far in this season, Jennings. When this team win, usually they score around 90 and only allow around 80 points. In their last 18 games, they only for 5 times they scored more than 100 points. And they aren't scoring less points lately, they just are more soft on their defense, and it's what they have to improve in order to achieve more wins. And this days off were certainly to talk about it and make the players understand how important is defense.

Spurs are a disappointing so far. This team, that plays together at so many time, seems now a old team. The strength of this team is their defense, as they are players that play with a low pace and got the size in the paint. In the road they are with a negative record, because their defense doesn't work in the same way. But this pause can give good effects on this team, They rested for few days, and so they would be prepared to manage the games.

Both teams have to improve their defense. After this Christmas break, I think that both teams will try to control the game by their defense. Probably this game will be played in a low pace, many mistakes will be probably committed due to a strong defense from both sides.

Pick: Under 191 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Dunno if I'll have time to properly focus on handicapping the other NBA games for today or for the next days, the family is celebrating the arrival of a new member and I my results might suffer from all this happiness. :P

This will be a matchup where a Eastern team host a Western team. Houston used to be a defensive team with Ming, however they have been adapted this season to play a faster game in order to keep competitive despite Ming season absence.

So, this ultra defensive team has started to use fast players, which could make them score a lot more.

However this doesn't happen in every game. When they faces a team that knows how to defend, they usually play a lower game to try to keep the scoreboard balanced.

Cleveland is incredible how they play in Sundays. They just enter the game with a high defensive, allowing few points, and with a low pace in the game, that keep them also away for a high score.

This year they aren't pushing themselves to big performances when they aren't facing a direct adversary, keeping only the control of the game against the other teams and with a low win margin. Today I expect a game played in a low pace and with a low score.

Pick: Under 192 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks

Knicks are going to their 7 straight game scoring less than 100 points. Their percentages are decreasing and their confidence is not the best right know, as they are nervous because of the memories of the start of the season, which could return soon.

This is not the best game right now to Knicks, as Spurs are a hard team to them, as they are 2-8 against Spurs in last 10 games. Spurs are being a disappoint so far, as they were expected to be one of the best teams on the league.

However, this had a break in Christmas that could benefit this team.

They are a team that doesn't enjoy to keep a high pace, as they are the oldest team in the league. Since Christmas, they went to Milwaukee won 112-97. But it's hard to keep this high score, as their bench shoot 71.5% on their attempts.

In a B2B game, Spurs have to be smart against a fast team such Knicks, and they could easily control this game if they keep a good defensive and a low pace.

ATTENTION: Sacramento Kings' Tyreke Evans might not play tonight (sore right ankle) and that is a nice edge for Denver. You might want to wait until it is confirmed that Evans will not play tonight before risking this pick. ;)
NBA 2009.12.28, final 7 picks:

ATTENTION: Sacramento Kings' Tyreke Evans might not play tonight (sore right ankle) and that is a nice edge for Denver. You might want to wait until it is confirmed that Evans will not play tonight before risking this pick. ;)

For the next 2 days, today and tomorrow, is very unlikely for me to post any picks. I'm about to travel to pass the New Year's Eve out of town to spend some quality time with my friends, so I'll not be with the proper mindset do handicap NBA, NHL or college basketball. Yet, my college football bowls picks (+6.46 units won/12 units risked) for the next 3 days (until 2010.01.02) were already posted. ;)

SpinLES

12-31-2009, 07:35 PM

Yeah ...good shit Tommy :worship:

TommyGold

01-02-2010, 04:40 PM

NBA 2010.01.02, first pick:

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets

Both teams ended well last year, and there is no doubt that both are motivated to start this year in the best way. Houston ended up with a win against their rivals Dallas, while New Orleans hosted Miami to win as well. In this part of the season, the Rockets are with a better record, specially due to road games.

Today, I expect Houston to struggle a little bit on the court, as I can see advantage for the Hornets. Houston got a faster game this season than last one, a smart play as they lost Ming for season. This made the team more soft on the defense, and quicker in their offense.

Another highlight is that they have kind of "fired" T-mac, as he will not play with the team anymore, and is waiting for trade. It's true that he had several injurie problems and have missed most of this season so far, but he is a all star player.

NO had creepy their way, keeping alive their run to playoffs. They had a bad start, however they are making their home something really strong, and are enjoying an improvment of their best players, wich are giving them a big help.

Today, despite the good road record for Rockets, I expect Hornets to dominate this game. Rockets normally take advantage on road games when their oponnents shows a lazy game, teams that think that the game was won before the start. However, the Hornets at home never make it easy, and never make a lower pace even against the worst teams.

So, we can expect a focused team hosting the Rockets. Brooks that have been one of the best players for Rockets will have to handle today with CP3, something that I can't see him making right, as he will not be able to defend CP3 and will struggle on offense against him. Even the rest os the positions, there is advantage in each one for Hornets.

First of all, there is a little tendency to unders on Sundays for most NBA teams. But that isn't the reason for this play. Knicks are 8-0 on under last 8 home games. The last time they scored more than 100 points were one month ago. The last time they allowed more than 100 points, were before the end of November. Long time without a doubt. That is because Knicks have made some adjusts, and after they started the season without caring about their defense, they realize that they needed to make also a defensive game when it's about to defense, in order to keep control of the games.

For Indiana this is a B2B game. The last time they passed the 100 points mark, was 6 road games away, more than 3 weeks ago. Despite a 233 points last nigh game, Pacers are without their major players, and will not play against a week team as Timberwolves are being right now. They were with 8 straight losses before last nigh win, showing that they miss Granger, and trying to adjust their "run and gun" game to a low pace, as Dunleavy is not so quick as Granger. In order to try to get a second win on a row, they need to be effective against a team that is showing a good home game.

Despite this seems a run and gun teams, and a low line, the truth is that neither of these teams have even been close of that number in their last home/road games respectively. Pacer are coming finally from a win, and without so many players, they will have a letdown due to euphoria. Knicks are with 2 straight losses at home, and will try hard to turn things, specially with the high moral they get on their last game. They will be solid on defense, as that will be something easy with their advantage, and Knicks are not a kind of team that shutdown their opponents as much as they can, and if they get a comfortable margin, they will certainly low down their pace.

Pick: Under 207.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Charlotte Bobcats @ Cleveland Cavaliers

This is a matchup that were already played in the the first games of the season. In that time, Cavaliers hold the Bobcats with a 90-79 and a 169 points game.

Now, Bobcats are quite different, as they added a pure scorer to their roster, Jackson. And they are motivated, as they won their last road game, something they were chasing in their last road games. Now, I believe that they use their motivation to discuss this game, and there is only a way to do it, being a bright defense, and keep a low pace. And that isn't difficult, as Bobcats are the best defenders on the league.

Cavaliers are playing better day by day. But there is a strange tendency, as they are 40-12 on unders on Sundays. Today we can expect the same. With their improvement it's hard to believe that they will be defeated today against a poor road game, and they are certainly aware of what kind of the team they will face. So, they will also have to be good defenders and hold the scorers for Bobcats, and take advantage of their scorers, particularly LeBron.

Both teams are good defenders, and in last 5 games, Cavaliers are holding the opponents allowing only 88 points and Bobcats with only 92 points. This is because both teams are trying to improve their game and making their defense better, as they have weapons to do so. Today, both teams will face each other, and the questions is, who is the better defense?

Both teams are making a median season, and forgetting the beginning that Hornets had, none of the teams are achieving more than 2 losses in a row. These are the kind of teams that have aspirations to go to playoffs, but there is no doubt that they need to improve and be more regular.

Jazz are well known for their strength at home. Despite 2 losses in last 3 home game, this team have a record of 12-5 at home, and when they are concentrated, they usually won any team. At home, this team is very balanced, scoring around 105 points per game and allowing 97 points per game. With Deron distributing the ball, and with sized and atletics mens on the paint, this team can be very strong, specially against teams that are not so balanced.

Hornets are the kind of team that when they lost, they usually lost by many. This team depends to much on CP3, and more important this year, the biggest factor to know if they will win, is the motivation. When they are motivated, they can fight the game and usually win, but if they start to miss and see the opponent get some distance, they usually get disoriented. The is easily seen on road game, where the team is 2-13. With fans of the other teams pulling them down, this team simple can't work.

Today, in one of the worst arenas to play for any team, in Salt Lake City, it's hard to see any motivation for Hornets. And they can't get motivation, they will have a blow out loss. Jazz can easily blow out their opponents at home, as they get well motived by their public, and fire a lot. Despite Hornets have CP3, is not in the guard position that we have biggest different. In the paint, is hard to see Okafor, West and Pedrag facing Milssap, Boozer and Okur. And even in the bench, Utah is better.

Tonight the King's will host the Suns, who came from a lost against Memphis, at home. At last games they was a little bit irregular, with alternated results. The home team came from a 3 loss streak, even they are strong playing at his court.The last lost was against Dallas by 99-91, with a great game of Casspi.

At Phoenix side, Steve Nash, the "old man" is the key player of this team. He's an excelent PG, with higher averages of points and assists (he have 11.2 apg). Against Sacramento this player plays very well: at last three games (included the victory over the Kings by 116-104 at December), he counts with 30.7 points and 9.3 assists. On the other side the star is Tyrek Evans, a PG with 20.1 ppg, who's back after the last game of the Kings against Dallas, when he played 38 minutes. The two teams have great players behind the arc, like Jason Thompson at the King's side and Stoudemire at the Sun's. This two players are a great rebounders and i excepect a nice fight in the paint.

Like i said, the Kings came from 5 losses at the last 6 games, with two of the losses against Kobe and "friends". Sacramento couldn't forget the 3 points of Kobe at last second, who give the Lakers victory. But i think the last results of Sacramento could be explained by the lot of games in a few days, and with a tired team is not easy to win a lot of games, against strong teams. With Evans playing 38 minutes at last game, the team hasn't a good exibition. To compensate Casspi played well and scores 22 points, but he couldn't bring the King's victory.

I hope that will be a close-game. Sacramento rests 3 days and will play at home, with Evans at maximum force, not rusty like the last game. On the other side the Suns starts the year with a ugly loss at home against Memphis by 25 points, and they not play well as they wish on the road. With a close-game i see value at the Kings ML, so take the Kings.

Pick: Sacramento Kings ML +130 (2.30) The Greek

TommyGold

01-06-2010, 07:25 AM

Very sick loss on GSW ML... :( Yet, I'm winning 60.51% and having a 15% EDGE on spreads and totals. :P It should lower later in the season.

The Wolves are making a lousy season. The have a bad record at home and on the road as well. Today, they will face a bad road team, at least supposedly, but the true is that this bad road team can play better on road than Wolves at home. The records are pretty similar, however one team can play well and another just struggle to do it.

Timberwolves with only 4 wins at home, have their biggest problem on defense. They usually can't stop their opponents, and they can't also score enough to equalize teams that easily score. They usually score around 100 in their good days, and today against a run and gun team, perhaps they can score a little bit more, but they can't have the pace to win this contest. In their home game, they have an average of 93 points per game scored. But even if they got a window in their offense, their defense can't accomplish the same, as it's rare to them to allow less than 100 points. Against a team that have facilities to score, this can be a bad nigh to Wolves.

Warriors are the kind of team that gives a high pace to the game, and normally just play on the offensive side. They had a horrible lost last nigh on Denver, and they are aware that they can be better and achieve better results, specially when their frontcourt mens finally returned from injuries. Against a team that it's play a bad game, struggles on defense as well as on offense, the key of the game will be the offense. In that side, Warriors have a huge edge, and will probably easily win this contest.

This line should be so short, even if we keep in mind that both teams will make a B2B game, and Houston had yesterday one of the lowest pace game and lowest accuracy this season. But yesterday it was a different spot, Lakers were dealing with some injuries and were looking for revenge. Suns played on road, and made the enough to win, but still, they were able to score 116 points.

Today we will have a matchup where we have a huge value on over from my point of view. I expected a line around 227/2230, so we have almost 13 points on our side. Suns are strong at home, and they make the rules on their home games. And one of those rules is play fast. There are many teams that aren't able to keep that pace, others can lower a little bit Suns game and achieve win. But today they will face Rockets. And what are Rockets able to do since they lost Ming? Play a fast game, and try to keep the scoreboard balanced as much as they can. Despite last game, Rockets have the players that they can count with this season ok. This team can easily score 100 points, but against a team that forgets to defend many times, Rockets will probably be able to increase their score. And when Rockets "enter" this kind of game, they can easily forget their defense as well. And Suns at home, less than 115 points, is a kind of defeat.

Rockets will probably to Phoenix to fight the game in Suns rules. High pace, low defense. There are the ingredients for todays game. Both teams got players to make this game like this.

Today, Hawks will have the perfect matchup to show to everyone that they are already in a great form. Hawks had a period where they give blowout losses to everyone they faces, but they have struggled for a few games, in games against Cleveland and Knicks. Now, and after two straight wins against Boston, they are able to pull up again their best game. They will face a break team after the scandal involving Arenas, their franchise player. But Washington is not playing so bad as every one expects, after all, they are accustomed to play without Arenas, as he had only returned few months ago to the competition.

Despite in the beginning of the season these teams had a game in Atlanta that ended with 100-89 (189 points), we canīt expect something different today. And the biggest difference it will be in the number of points, as we canīt be sure about how will Wizards be able to manage the game. But with Jamison, Butler and so on, they are a team with good scorers and able to score lotīs of points. Atlanta will face this game giving all they could give, and they are a team that easily score 130 points at home, making a game with a high pace, caring more with their offense than defense. If Atlanta play in that pace and scores a lot of points, Wizards will also be able to pass the century mark easily.

Pick: Over 203.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers

More than 75% of the bettors are going on under, making this line moving in our favor. Itīs a bet that people make without any analysis, just because itīs a high number. But that is not the right way to do things, and we have to be methodic.

Suns and Pacers will meet at Conseco Fieldhouse. This is a traditional arena for overs, as here, at home, Pacers always plays with a high pace. But lately pacers have slowed down, as they lost to improvement list their best and fastest player, Granger. However, he comeback to action last game, and so, we canīt expect a huge improvement in Pacers offense.

Suns are also a team that likes to play fast. Their kind of game is also the run and gun, and despite there is the impression that they are slowing down, that is not true. First, they never negate a fast game if the opponent is willing to play with a high pace. After hall, playing in high pace is the "water where they live". The fact is that at home, Suns are scoring less lately, but that is something that happen, is not a tendency. At the road, they struggle a little bit in few straight games, when they played against strong and good defenses. But when they faces a soft defense on road, they never score less than 120 points.

Today, we will have a perfect matchup for those that just love overs and big scoring games. Suns will face Pacers, that with Granger back, will try to play their best game at home, that is run-and-gun. Suns just love to play that game, so I expect a easy over despite the high numbers.

Bobcats are playing very well at home, being one of the best teams at home. They will face a team that can do their best and their worst, and depend too much on Wade. Here, Bobcats can easily neutralize Miami team, and Wade isn't enough to make Heat discuss this game.

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic: Over 210 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Pacers are with their full strenght, and will have to make everyone believe that the last game was a mistake. Orlando also needs to show that they can play pretty well, and will probably allow a fast pace.

Blazers are being inconsistent since their injuries curse appears. They can play well, however, I can't see them to have any advantage in Philadelphia, as 76ers can play a fast game, and use size in the paint.

Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons: Under 187 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Garnett still out of the game, and Detroit still playing a bad game. This is a bad contest, with two teams that will make this matchup a matchup to see who can play worst.

Hornets are great at home, it's true. But they are to soft to face a hot team like Grizzlies right now. Grizzlies are confident, playing well and without fears. Hornets have CP3, but he will not be able to make the diference, and Memphis will dominate in the paint.

Thunders are lead by Durant, and there is no doubt that this young team have talent. However, this line is to high, Wolves players are improving, and they have the experience and the youth to fight for this game.

The Nuggets are improving a lot their game and they will "attack" hard this game, while the Warriors only have 4 players with a lot of playing time on their legs, the remaining roster will be filled with players coming from the D-league, and their main scorer are facing physical problems.

This matchup give us a good spot, as we don't have a big spread for the home team. Despite the recent results that Bobcats had, they still being the worst road team, they are the kind of team that plays pretty well at home, but plays badly on the road. In the other side, Nuggets are a great home team as well and are the kind of team that usually win by more than 10 points easily.

Bobcats come from 2 straight losses, including the last game at home. Something rare, and definitely is not the best spot now, playing on the road after a home loss. They have to manage that loss, and on the road, they aren't able to manage it properly. Despite great scorers, is the kind of scorers that work just fine at home, when the crowd support them, but on the road they struggles very often.

Denver, are coming from big wins. The key for this team is Billups, a brilliant player, as he have skill and the brain to lead this team. This line is a little bit low because Carmelo is in doubt, however, he is not the kind of player that makes the team play, he usually play alone. If Carmelo miss the game, someone is going in his place and will try their best, as isn't easy to fight for Carmelo place, after all, he is an All Star and a great scorer.

Today we can expect Nuggets to play their best, Billups is in a good shape, and this team at home just blow out the opponents. Bobcats are coming from 2 straight losses, including a home defeat, and hare a bad road team. They are not with their confidence up, and now how difficult it will be to play in Denver.

I can't take the lines on the Bucks @ Mavs, they are to risky. Bucks could make this a close game, due to how Mavs approach games against "easy teams". However, it's always a risk.

NY are playing bad, with key players out because of injuries. Wolves are trying to fight on their road games, and today is a good spot, there is no doubt that this game can easily goes to Wolves side, as they are in a better shape.

Wizards is really hard to read. They usually plays well and cover high spreads at home against powerfull teams. But Lakers are playing better, Wizards are going trought a strange period.

Suns just NEED this win. There is no other way to aproach this game. Bobcats are playing well, but not on the road. There will be also a revenge spot for Suns. And something seems really easy to me: Over. Both teams got great scorers, and will be a really fast game.

Warriors still losing their players, and they are now starting with 2 D-league players. Kings are achieving many losses, and this is the righ contest to bounce back, as they got the players to fight for this game, like Martin and Evans.

Lakers are improving their road record, as they know that they need to be as good on the road as at home in order to obtain some credits to fight for the NBA title. Despite a 8 road games trip, in the middle of it Lakers showed that they are playing well, despite some struggling minutes. Jackson is trying to get more bench minutes to his key players, but that already cost him a win in Toronto. Now, he is giving everything he can to achieve more than 15 points lead, and only then he makes his key players rest. The team his with 1 day off, and will have another day off after this game. The bench players can't struggled so much as they did in the past, and have to prove that they deserve a rotation spot. So, I expect them to manage well the lead they have when they enter the game.

Indiana is with Dunleavy out. Granger is back, but this all star is not so visible when playing against another all starts, because the quality is higher than usual. Their last 2 home games were losses, in it was because they lost the rebounds battle. They can't manage well teams that have size and muscle in the paint, as they only have one good player in the paint, that it's Murphy. But Murphy can't handle properly Bynum, as Bynum is twice the size of Murphy.

So I expect a really easy game to Lakers while they play with their best team, and today his a perfect spot to Gasol shine. Even Kobe will have much more space than usual, and it's always dangerous when that happen. So, even if they bench players can't make the same of Lakers key players, I think the lead at that time will be to high to get in a wrong way.

Today Blazers will face one of the hottest teams right now. Blazers made a great game 2 days ago at Dallas, winning straight up when they were dogs by 8.5 points. Since they lost Brandon Roy, this is the only good result. Can this give the idea that "they are back"? No, and it's easy. Any team with a letdown spot, struggling because of any reason, can go to Dallas win. It's hard to believe but it's the true. This team had a great start, but since they start losing important players due to injuries, the team went down. Last week, Roy was put in the injured list due to hamstring. Since that, the team had made poor games, with exception to the game in Dallas. And Andre Miller will not score again 52 points.

Bobcats are strong since they acquired Jackson. After a great run at home, they started to play on the road, their weak point. And after losing in Atlanta and Denver, they managed to get 3 straight wins, many as they achieved in 14 road games. The team is playing pretty well, with great scorers as Jackson, and great defenders. Wallace was called to participate in the all stars, and is showing why he deserve it.

Today, Bobcats that are passing a great moment, will face a broken team that will play without their best players. A team that can't keep the pace in a game when the opponent approach the game thinking the game isn't already won. Today, Bobcats should be at least 6 points favorite, but due to the fact that their road record is poor, they are dogs. But don't forget, the team had a BIG improvement, and the results are appearing on the road as well.

Bucks are not a good road team. They are 6-19 record and scoring only 93 points per game while allowing 98 points per game. Their game is based in Jennings and Bogut, as they have Redd sidelined for the rest of the season. However, Jennings is passing a bad moment scoring few points.

Knicks are now hopefully finishing a letdown spot, that happened due to some important injuries. They are not a regular team, with a 12-14 record at home, and allowing 102 points, the some points they score per game.

While Bucks are slowing down, Knicks will try to show what they got today, when the team will be all ok to host Bucks. Knicks can easily play a run and gun game, and Lee and Harrington can make the difference in the paint. When Knicks starts well a game, it's really hard to stop them, as they can score easily from anywhere in the field.

Bucks have a good man in the paint, Bogut, but Knicks have all the edge in the paint at home. Jennings is passing a bad moment, and without him, the team struggles. Even thinking that Jennings can improve a little bit today, this is not the perfect game to let him carry the team again. his spread is small, as Knicks can delivery easily lot's of triples in the last minutes of the game with Galinari.

Bucks are not the kind of team that is able to stop Knicks as they were playing before the injuries. And I expect Knicks to return today to their best performances.

After a great weekend for Wade (the MVP of all star game), Miami will go to Philadelphia play close game. Miami have all their players rested, and it's a team that only depend on their mood to play well. After so many days off, the team will likely approach this game with the right angle, and that is easely translated to many point from their part.

Sixiers are also rested after a loss ending their 4 winning streak games. They were scoring lot's of points, 104 points per game, and allowing almost 100. That's because the team can have a high pace during many minutes in the game. Today, Iverson will return, and we can expect a faster game than lately.

Sixiers are small favourites today, and will make their best to win this game. They know that Miami will appears today with energy, so they will have to be better on accuracy, as this will be probably a fast game.

Pick: Over 190.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Detroit Pistons

Everyone expects Timberwolves to keep their pace. It's true that they were lately scoring more than 100 points per game, however, today we have a different situation. Timberwolves scored lot's of points because their opponents let so. Some of them lost due to that, however, it was because teams didn't approach well the game.

Many teams were already thinking in after all stars, another teams had players that were playing slowly due to injuries or just because they were tired. But now, we will enter the second part of the season. It will be more serious than before the all star, and many teams will try their last efforts to get a playoff spot.

Timberwolves will face today Detroit, that is a team that plays a lot with their defense. Detroit is far from playoffs, but none team can quit just after and all star. They will enter this second part of the season with what they do best: DEFENSE! And against a team that is not quite good, they will probably prevail with their defense.

Pick: Under 198 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold

02-17-2010, 12:07 AM

New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls

Chicago had their best streak just before the all star break. The team where scoring almost 100 points per game and today will face a team with no defense, and they will explore it as they got players that can score easily. Knicks, were playing badly before this break, and will have the winner of slum dunk contest out due to flu.

Chicago will try to keep their shape, and they know that they can win this game if they focus on their accuracy. They are not good on defense, allowing around 95 points per game, but they know that Knicks are not in their best moment. Even after this break, they are without N. Robinson and are a affraid team on road, allowing more than 105 points per game.

We can expect today a easy win for Bulls, as they will have to be focus in this second part of the season. Knicks will probably try to keep a high pace, because it's the only way to try to discuss this game, but they will not be able to score as much as Bulls.

This year, in two games against Suns, Memphis were abel to get a unquestionable win in both of the games. Last year, only one game against Suns was played in Memphis, and Memphis won it to.

We all know how Suns plays. They are lead by the veteran Nash, they are the kind of team that play run and gun. They are bad on defense, and the team is turned and focus in offense.

Memphis is a young team with lots of talent players. WHen they faces teams that's "invite" to play a fast game and focus on offense, they glady accept the "contest". This young team can easily score in any part of the field, and have the edge in the paint against any team in NBA.

Their frontmans are great on offense, much better than in defense, and playing a run and gun game, only benefits Memphis team. That's why I think they shoul be favourites, they already prove it this year with two easy wins against Suns.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies ML -103 (1.97) 5Dimes

TommyGold

02-17-2010, 12:49 AM

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

The young team that Thunders have, can lead the team to playoff spots. They are showing that they can be mature, and have an all star as Durant, one of the best scorers in NBA. One of the few teams that can contradict team is Dallas.

Thunders were underrated by most of the teams in the beginning of the season, but lately those teams seems confuse, with difficult to know how to handle with team. However they forget that this team, despite they dont show, they are young. Rookies and sophomores are the most important players in this team.

Dallas get a good trade, with Haywood, Stevenson and all star Butler. This players will give more talent and strenght to the team, and also more bench depth. They will face this second part of the season with a good roster, that can give gurantees to Cubain, who said last year "We just suck".

Dallas know how to handlee with Thunders, and their new players will show why they deserve a spot, and will likely be better than they were in Wizards, as they will play in a team that plays more as they like.

Golden State are always able to score. Even when they have almost all their players injured, they call players from the development team to play in the starting lineup. But even then, they are able to score a lot. The Warriors still have lots of players out, including Monta Ellis, one of their best scorers. But their kind of game is still the same, and the players that will play today can be less talented, but will make the job and score lots of points as well.

Lakers are without Kobe, but the team are playing a quicker game without him. The players that have entered the rotation when Kobe missed the games, are trying to take their chance to show that they are good enough. Today, they will face one of the worst defense in the league. As a team that can easely score, they will take this chance to show that they can be great scorers too, and will try to do a good performance to show that they also deserve more minutes. And as we all know, the offensive performance is the performance that most of the time people notice.

Pick: Over 216.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold

02-17-2010, 07:29 PM

NBA 2010.02.17 first 2 picks:

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

After a great win yesterday at home, Pistons will play again today. It's a back to back game, however they are coming from 5 days off. They shouldn't be tired, but more important, they are with confidence and with the will to chance the path of the team. Pistons are the kind of team that starts every year with a minimum target, playoffs. However, they are disappointing the fans this year, with poor games and a 19-33 record. However, the team is not so bad as it seems, they still have good players, and despite their best players missed many games in the first part of the season, the team is all ok now. There is no excuses to keep the bad performances and fail to get a better record. Yesterday they entered the second part of the season with a great game, winning it by 23 points. So, they will arrive to this game thinking that they are able to make the difference in the remaining part of the season.

In other hand, Orlando will have 3 home games. After Detroit, they will have to handle with Mavs and Cavaliers. That's enough to approach this game with the minimum resources. Orlando is a good team unquestionable, and can get great wins, but is not the kind of team to win by many points, as they slowdown when they are leading with comfort. That's why it's hard to expect Orlando to enter todays game with all they got, as they probable think that this will be the easy game and they are already thinking in the next games. And Detroit can make a surprise, at least, they will try.

Pick: Detroit Pistons +11 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Chicago Bulls @ New York Knicks

Yesterday, Knicks went to Chicago. The game ended with 203 points, but that's because Bulls were leading by many points, and in the fourth quarter, both teams slow down and quit the game, otherwise, the game would probably ended with 220 points or more.

The things that made me going in the over yesterday, still available for today matchup. Players are not tired as they rested almost a week. Nate Robinson could return today.

So, both teams learned yesterday some thing about each other. Knicks will have to use it today, as they will probably try to get their revenge after the big loss yesterday. The biggest difference in the game, was the accuracy. With only 30% of shots right, Knicks will have to improve it a lot today, and at home, that seems really easy to them. However, their defense shouldn't be able to stop Bulls, at least, to make the difference. They had shoot yesterday 60%! Bulls probably learned the lesson, and will know today how to score. They will probably keep more than 50% of accuracy today.

Knicks will make a fast game. They know that right now, they are not better shooters, but they can shoot more. Bulls learned yesterday how to handle Knicks. The trick is not try to make a good defense, is only shoot better.

Houston will go to Milwaukee to a matchup against against a good defensive team. Despite the 12-14 record on road that Rockets got, they are not a good road team. They have managed to get 12 wins on road, but this number will probably have a small increase for the rest of the season. This team seems a good defensive team, however, their kind of game is usually to fast to make a good defensive work. On road, their defense sucks, and when they face teams that defend and don't let Houston play fast, they struggle.

Bucks are one of that kind of teams that makes the season in their home games and an ocasional surprises. At home, they got the edge in the paint with Bogut and a rookie that is shinning a lot and making the diference, Jennings. They can score a lot, play a fast game, but they are smart enough and know that their edge is on their defense. Against houston, that's all they need to get a confortable win.

Pick:Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

TommyGold

02-17-2010, 10:37 PM

NBA 2010.02.17 another pick:

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Hornets

Utah are 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games on ATS. They were playing really well before the break, and showed yesterday that they still reaming with their "momentum". They are strong in every positions, with Deron, Boozer and Okur.

New Orleans are without CP3, and the true is that is a big loss to the team. They could hold a little bit after the all star break, winning some games, however, they will return today to action, after 7 days off. To a team that will play more 2 or 3 weeks without their leader, it will be hard to show competitiveness in this first games.

Without CP3, the Hornets will not be able to discuss games against teams that are strong and have big mens, as Boozer, Okur and Millsap. Their athetism is a little bit soft, and they will not be able to control the gam in the paint against Utah. And they will not be able to defend Deron Willians as they should in order to discuss the game.

Pick: Utah Jazz -4 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

TommyGold

02-17-2010, 11:23 PM

NBA 2010.02.17 final 2 picks:

Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

Despite the break, GSW weren't able to treat their players from the extensive injured list. They played yesterday and they seems with lack of confidence and rhythm. In their last games, they lost 9 straight games, and ended the first part of the season with a win. That should give them confidence and the strength to look forward in the second part of the season. The team can play a fast game, but they can't defend but that's not their main problem at this point. They have players from the minors playing lot's of minutes, few players of their initial roster at day 1 is playing right now.

Kings are being so far a nice surprise for me. With two rookies making the difference, Kevin Martin have more space, and the team is well equalized and playing very well. Yesterday, they were almost able to win to Boston, but they couldn't hold the lead in the final part. I think that they are able to approach this second part of the season with a positive perspective, and forget the last month before the break, where they sucked a lot.

Today, Kings are a team more organized and with more confidence. They are able to play pretty well in a fast pace, and make the difference today defending when they have to.

Today is the last day to close the transfers window and as you might noticed, there are several regular players being benched in the last 2 days (and seeing little game time in the process), which screws any analysis of the game, so I might not have a play for tonight.

Denver is coming from a big win, giving an upset defeat to Lebron in his home. Carmelo accepted the challenge that LeBron launch to him, and was the winner. Today the team is probably confident, and we still can despise a little bit the back to back factor, as they are coming from the break and played yesterday their first game in 7 days.

Denver is one of the brilliant teams, as Billups seems more inteligent that ever. With Carmelo returning after almost one month out, and scoring 40 points in Cleveland, this team will attack this second part of the season to show that they can be a contenders fro those that still give them no value.

They will face today the biggest winner in the trade contest, trading all their biggest players after the loss of Arenas "to the gangs". So, we can expect a good team today from Wizards, as they are building a new team. A really easy win to Denver is what I expect.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -5.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers

The biggest problem for Spurs this season, is that they are to old to play 4 games per week, sometimes, 2 games in 2 days. However, they can use the all star break to rest, and comebak with the best they can provide. After all, this is a team with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The talent is huge. They started well, despite some laziness in the last minutes, but they built a confortable lead during the game. They are strong in the paint and can stand up against the big frontcourt of Sixiers.

Sixiers started this second part of the season in the wrong way. Iverson was grumpy, Thadeus and Willians started in the bench, and the team achieved a big loss at home, against Miami. It seems that they already understood that the season is over for them, playoffs seems far.

Today, Spurs will have they can, they have to, as this is their best games, as they had a weak off to rest. Sixiers is the kind of team that easily quit during the game if they started to lose by many, and I expect them today to play under their abilities.

Pick: San Antonio Spurs -3 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Milwaukee Bucks @ Detroit Pistons

Bucks were among the positive surprises this year, leaded by the impressive rookie Jennings and with Bogut being the strength. However, they seems to slowing down their efforts, as they ended badly the first part of the season. The first game in the second part, was worst than the worst nightmare, as they get a defeat by 28 points t home. It seems that lost all their abilities, and will now make the season that everyone thought this summer. Jennings is losing is moment, and passing a bad time, and that have repercussions in the team instantly.

Detroit is going in the other path. They finnaly got all their players without injuries and ready to play. They have been so far one of the biggest dissapointing teams this year, as they were appointed as a strong contenders to playoffs. But the season went bad during the first part, and now it's time to recover. Two days ago, they went to Orlando, abel to hold Magics for 3 quarters, and entering the fourth with signs that they could make the life difficult. But suddenly they struggled and lost that quarter by 20 points and ended with any chances. However, tere were good signgs of a good rehab, and today I expect it to be effective.

November 9, Detroit went to Milwaukee and win 93-81. They know how to do it, and they should now be better. Their biggest weapon is their defense, and they will hold Bucks offensive easily. Bucks in other hand, will try to be good defenders in order to discusse the game. But they will not be able to score many points.

Toronto had some problems with their defense, but establish it during the first part of the season. However, it's hard to believe in their defense with Bosh out. The last time that happened, they suffered almost 150 points. The kind of game that Toronto plays when things are going in the difficult way, is a run and gun game, something that they are good. Even with Bosh out, Bargnani can fill that spot in the offense pretty well.

The Nets after playing against the Bobcats, have achieved a great win, then returned home and lost to Miami, with an overall score of 171 points. It's never easy to play against a team like Miami, that can "destroy" the show sometimes. At home, they are scoring few points, but isn't due to lack of talent, as they are able to score many points on road. They're getting difficulties at home, as the supporters are not happy with the team with be worst record on NBA.

However, after a loss by one point, they will give all they can today, specially when they know that Bosh is out and they have Lopez. Devin Harris, Lee an Jianlian are the kind players that will proudly accept the chanlege for a gun and run game, and this will be probably a high scoring game, as will not be Toronto to descrease their game and will be Nets to increase theirs.

Pick: Over 198.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies

Miami is one of thouse alarming teams. They can compete for the worst coach in NBA, they can play a horrible game, or they can give an upset to big teams. There are two keys for this team. If Wade plays well, the team can achieve any goal, and when there is a need of a coach, the team can't achieve any goal due to Spoelstra. Today, they will only have their worst, Spoelstra, as Wade is out this game. Without him, the team normally struggles, even with him they do it some times. Their strenght will be with O'neal and Beasley, but they can't have that edge against a team like Memphis.

Memphis is a strong team that were passing a bad moment, but went last game to Toronto win the game. They got and huge edge in the paint, with M. Gasol and Z. Randolph, as they are great rebounders and particullary good as well in the offense. But they are not the only thing this team have, but today, they will be key players to lead the team to a big win. The team is one of the most equalized teams in NBA, with Conley, Mayo e Gay supporting their frontcourt.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold

02-20-2010, 01:48 AM

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

What can we expect from an healthy Suns? Only a fast pace and a good accuracy. They are with a 6 straight games with unders, and that's why this line is so low, as I can't see Atlanta try to make a good defence and try to hold down a fast game.

With Crawford ok, he will be one of their biggest weapons, as he can score fast points. But Atlanta isn't defense, despite their good defensive game. On road they allow almost 98 points, and can play a game with a high rythm.

Against Suns, Atlanta will try to keep the pace, and with great scorers, they will easily win. And even thinking they are a good defense, it's to hard to acomplish a good defense in Phoenix, as Suns are able to overcame any defense, specially at home.

Pick: Over 212.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors

Utah is 8-0-1 in last 9 road games and 14-3 overall in last 17. Their strengh and work has been amazing, as they are able to win games that they actually didn't played well.

The road isn't something that scares them, and even with Okur out today, the team have enough big mens to occupy the space in the paint. Behind the arc, they have fast players and great scorers as well, with Deron being the key of their game.

They will face today a team with no defense. The truth is that they play that game called "if I can score more, i "probably" could win". However, they are with many injuries, and it's really hard to this team achieve two straigh wins.

Jazz are really good facing teams that are breaked. Warriors are one of that kind, as they only play half the court. And even their roster is breaked, with some players playing the game, anothers sited for the 48 minutes.

Boston will play their fourth game after the break. They traded House and Giddeons for Nate Robinson, but he will miss today game. So, there will be lack of good Guards for rotation, something not good when you are playing your fourth road game in six days. Even thinking that Boston had improved their defense and won the last 3 games, there were some difficulties to win against Sacramento, won obly by 1 against a Lakers without Kobe, and then, had a massive win in Portland a against a debil an inconsistence team. So, they are not so good as it seems to be dogs only by 2 ball possessions against one of the hottest teams.

Denver had a ridiculous loss in Wizards, after a huge win in Cleveland. They are 23-5 at home, and with the upset they had last game, they will not make easy todays game against Celtics. They know that they are in a better shape offensively, and at home, even the best defense have problems do defend them. With Anderson back tonight, the frontcourt of the Nuggets will have enough power to face the powerfull frontcourt that Celtics have. They should won this contest confortable.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -4.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

*One unit each always.

TommyGold

02-21-2010, 10:25 PM

NBA 2010.02.21 more 3 picks:

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Jersey Nets

Somehow, the Nets seems unable to score more than 90 points at home. They are worst at hoem than on road, where they can aliviate the tension that supporters give them. Isn't easy to bet the team with the worst record, specially when the team is breaking some bad records. With Jianlian out, only Brook Lopez will be able to try stop the great frontcourt that Memphis have.

Memphis can score very easily, and will have to take today opportunitie to turn things, as they are not in a good moment. With Randolph and Gasol making this team being the best team scoring in the paint, and well supported by the players behind the line, will not be this team to hold them.

Pick: Memphis Grizzlies -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets

Houston made important trades, and if we think that T-mac weren't helping the team in the last months, were positive trades, as they lost an important player like Landry, but he have enough players to compensate, and won a all star player ang big scorer with Kevin Martin. Yesterday, and after they were leading by more than 10 points at half time, they lost the game. The team needs time to sync, and the first match is always hard, and they payed that proce high because they were playing against a run and gun team.

It's true that without Ming, they are a little bit soft in the paint, but they can a faster game, and will get more accuracy with K. Martin playing. Hornets are without CP3, the key of their win against Houston at home 21 days ago by 4 points. Despite they have big players, they are a little bit soft to. The team it's more lazy than Rockets, and today Rockets will dominate easily this game, as they have the edge behind the arc, and can be a little bit better in defense as well.

Pick: Houston Rockets ML +115 (2.15) The Greek

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors

In January Warriors won at home to Atlanta with 223 overall points scored. In December, Atlanta won at home against Warriors and 214 points were scored. Atlanta knows that on road their defense is not so strong as at home and needs to improve their offense. They have the abilitie to do it, as they have great scorers that can play a fast game, and the ex-Warriors Crawford is a bench player that keeps a high pace. They just need to score around 45%, that is their average on road, to score more than 110 against a team that makes no defense, as they can score easily for any position.

The Warriors will have Monta back tonight and will impose their fast game. They weren't able to score lot's of points lately, as they had faced teams that forced the game to a low pace and with many mistakes for Warriors. But they were playing with several D-league players, and had lack of their "true" players. But with Monta Ellis back, the team gain a big reinforcement in scoring matter. With him back, and knowing that Atlanta easily enter and let them play their game, we can expect a huge scoring game, as there is no doubt that Atlanta will score many points, and Warriors will be able to score enough, as they will try to keep the game close.

Pick: Over 211.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

*One unit each always.

Denver was leading by 82-73 in the end of the 3rd Qtr...
The Spurs were leading by 76-73 in the end of the 3rd Qtr...
The Nets only had to score a handful of points to cover the Over...
So, it's the second time this month I finish the day with a 2-7 on spreads and totals... :|

Blazers are passing big problems with injuries, and it seems that they are forcing Roy to return as soon as possible to try to invert the situation, as he his the franchise and best player. The team is showing some insconsitence, and bad results against the strongest and more balanced teams. Their defense are struggling lately and they acquired Camby to compensate Oden injury, but he still needs more time to get sync with his team.

Jazz are going fantastic, and as I said last game, they are able to win even without playing well. This year they have played already two games against Blazers, and were able to win confortable, even in Portland. Deron will have a hurt Roy defending him, and will be able to do whatever they can. Jazz can also defend well, with big and great players in the paint, and can make the game as easy as Celtics did that went to Porland win by 20 points two days ago. Blazer will try to defend as good as they can, but probably will not be enough.

Sooner this month, Bucks went to New York. The result was favorable to Bucks by 12 points, but at this point, we have a really different situation.

The Knicks are the big winners of the trade season. They were able to ensure a low cap salary for next season, that was their main concern, but they were also able to improve their roster. They've got an all star player with T-Mac, that already won the fans, and Eddie House, that we have to be fair and say that will be much better for the team than Nate. Nate was the kind of player that hadn't good relations in New York, and worst, the kind of player that force all the players to play for him when he is playing.

With House, they gain a good shooter and a reliable guard, something that Antoni appreciate. And with Tracy McGrady, the team gain a big scorer. In their last game they fail to win to Thunders in OT, but the win was close, and everyone in NY believes that they will win today. Their confidence is high.

Milwaukee is still achieving good results and only once in a while they play a bad game, but it's notorious the lack of performance that their leader guard is having right now. Bogut, their other top player, already showed this season that we can't win the battle against Lee.

Pick: New York Knicks PK -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks

The Mavs are another team that had a great profit this trade season. Trading Howard for Haywood should be fair enough, but they were able to ensure even a best player, Butler. The talent of this team have raised much more than anyone should expect before the trade. The results were immediate, as the team were suffering several defeats in a row, and after the trade and the break, they got 3 wins in 3 games.

They were able to get turnbacks, with big second parts. This show that this team can really work, but with 2 new players in the initial five, it's logical that they struggle for several minutes until they get their "mechanism" ok. But with the team, they will need less minutes per game to show their talent.

Haywood give them the strength they need in the paint, with Marion and Dirk which are great scorers as well. Behind, they got the old Kidd, a smart player that can be more important than points, and Butler, a massive scorer as well.

Indiana have an all star player, Granger, that can play many points in every game, as they play a fast game that is favorable for him. However, their kind of game give them big problems on road game, where they are 7-21. They have no defense, and when they face teams that can defend them and score easily, they usually lost by more than 10 points.

Hibbert is to lazy to hold on Haywood, and Troy will have big problems facing all stars like Dirk. Their guards will have big problems in distributing the game, as they will have Jason Kidd in front of them. In November, they lost at home by 21 points against Mavs, but this time, the team will face a better Mavs and in Dallas, which give them more edge.

This month, we had a great profit with Utah. Yesterday, once again, the team was abel to a comeback after being losing by 25 points. They don't need to play well, as they have a good coach and great players in every position. They just need to do enough to ensure wins against teams that aren't depth.

In the other way, Atlanta lost yesterday in Golden State, after being in lead all the game until the last minutes. They were outscored in the last quarter and had a bad defeat. The problem that is appearing for them is lack of defense, their biggest weapon when season started.

Atlanta will play their fourth and last game in this roadtrip, and were able to win only against Clippers, a team that is passing several problems, trades and fired the coach. They went to Phoenix and Golden St. and lost. Today they will go to Salt Lake City, a arena that can be a hell.

The only game this season they had against Jazz were at home in December, and they were abel to win as they hold Jazz for 83 points. But now, this team is not the same and isn't defending the same. They are also showing some difficulties in offense lately. After a great first half of the season, where it seemed that they playoff would be something easy, they are now putting it in jeopardy.

Utah is making a great run lately. 17-2 put them back in the path of playoffs. In February they only lost their last home game, against Lakers. This team had a true sixth player in Salt Lake, where their supporters can really make the arena full of tension for the opponents.

After a loss, it's really unlikely that they would suffer another in a row. This team at home can be even more efective than ever, with a great defense and a good accuracy in offense. So, this team, can improve a lot, but really a lot, from the last games.

If in their last games they were able to win and obtained it, it would be more easy today, as they will be better, will have Okur back, and will face a team that is struggling a little bit.

Pick: Utah Jazz -5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Knicks, Mavs and Jazz are final for today. :)

TommyGold

02-23-2010, 08:02 PM

NBA 2010.02.23 first pick:

Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies

Lakers have managed well the absence of Kobe Bryant. They only lost last game, by one point, at home against Celtics. But that was a special game, where the smell of playoffs was huge. So, it was difficult to win without their best player, but that situation will not happen tonight. Tonight Kobe will return to action, and after his loss, we can conclude easily that Kobe makes his team play under a lower pace this season. Besides that, the team is improving their defense a lot, and in the last 5 games they only allowed more than 90 points to Warriors.

Memphis is struggling a lot lately without 4 losses in a row at home. Their last win at home was against the Lakers, 95-93, and since them, they are passing a letdown with a 2-6 record. Their offense is pretty good, as they can score easily in the paint and behind it. This month, they haven't reach 100 points at home in any game, including only 87 points with an OT in their last home game against Miami.

We can expect a low score game, as Kobe will return and will probably put the team playing with a lower pace. Lakers defense has improving lately so far, and on road, they are the kind of team that tries to keep a low pace always. Memphis are not passing a good moment and knows that have to play with calm and try to improve their defense as wells, and will be more focus in that than in offense.

We have to be aware about recent performs that both teams had. Celtics got the lowest point of this season with 3 losses in a row. It was just after the all star break, and that means that their approach to second part of the season is not the best. For a team that have and average of 101 points per game scored, they were hold to lower number. Despite the game they loss in OT, they were hold below the 100 points mark. Even in their last game, that was a win at home against a soft defense team, they were able to score only 105 points.

So, at this point, their offense is not working properly well. One of the causes is Mo Williams, their principal guard, that is scoring and a average below the 8 points per game after he returned from injury list, he that is one of the biggest scorers of the team. Of course that with Lebron, is hard to believe that this team can struggle offensively, but even Lebron, although we have good numbers, are not producing as much as he usual do. However, the team needs to prove that they are strong, and can easily put away bad periods, like champions have to.

The key will be to play with more concentration, and as they will face another contenders to the title, they will have to approach this game with a huge defense and without mistakes.

Boston has entered the second part of the season showing that they would be better than they were in the first part of the season. Lately, they were able to hold opponents offense, Sacramento, Lakers and Blazers. That's something big, as this games were all on road. Just in Denver they had a big scoring game, but Denver knew just well how to face them at home. In their last game, at home, they were able to hold NYK offense, but they didn't forced their defense, as they could be able to win just with offense. Even so, the game only had 216 points.

Todays game will be like a playoff match. Both teams know that they will have to be able to keep some secrets and not showing all they can do, as they know that they will face each other in an advance part of the season, and the knowledge that both teams can have will be important. Even so, both teams will do whatever they can to win this match, will be focus on defense, and that's why this will be probably a game with a low pace and few points.

Pick: Under 193.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors

For this matchup, the Nuggets will try their first two wins in a row, and will be aware about the Warriors. The most important thing about this game, is the cirucmstance from the last time these teams played. On January 20, Denver won in OT at Golden State due to clamorous mistakes by the referees. The fair winners should be the Warriors, and they will not that game pass away from their minds so soon.

Today, despite the absence of Maggette, among others, the team will make their best effort to get a win and revenge that game. In three NBA games this season, this is the overall score: 252; 255 and 241. Only the last one was on OT, but its pretty clear which is the gameplan that the Nuggets have. They will play the game that the Warriors want to and will try to play the 'run and gun' (all-out attack) game.

In those conditions, the Nuggets can score very easily, as they have great scorers, such as Carmelo, but when Nuggets enter that kind of game, they also reduce their defence. But they know that they can score more than the Warriors, and that's why they will try to make this game a great show off game with lots of points. They know that if they try to decrease the pace of the game, they will risk the result, as the Warriors have lots of confidence today to win this game if it stays close.

Orlando did enough in the first part of the NBA season, placing them first in their division. However, they are not too comfortable, and they can't rest with Atlanta only three wins behind. Concentrating on results now will allow them to avoid late problems due to injuries or just bad nights. Since the break, they have lost at home against the rebuilt Dallas team, and on road at New Orleans. In between, they were able to win at Houston by 18 points. If they were able to do that in Houston, they should also be able to do it in Philadelphia.

Orlando is well known due to Howard. He has been playing well lately, and owns the frontcourt. Their defence is playing well, and with Nelson back and Carter finally making performances we expected, this team is hard to stop right now, with great defence and great offence.

The 76ers are going in the wrong direction since the All-Star break. After the break, in six games, they were able to win two: in Oakland against the Warriors and at home against the Spurs. But this win against San Antonio was more about a poor performance from the Spurs.

Before that game, they lost at home by 27 points against Miami. They were able to face the frontcourt of the Spurs, but that frontcourt is a little bit lazy comparing to Orlando frontcourt. Today, they will probably play without their best man in the frontcourt, Brand, and this will be rough for the 76ers, as they will have few weapons to face Howard, Lewis and company.

Their defence has been smooth lately, and will probably keep going that way today. On the other hand, their defence has not been so bad, it seems that they can handle the absence of Iverson very well . Green is likely to miss too. With Dalembert and Speights the only avaliable centres, they will probably be crushed by Howard, and the other players in the frontcourt will also have problems. Behind the arc will be the key for the 76ers try to keep the scoreboard tight, however, they will probably suffer too many points to keep it that way.

Today, we will see only a few part of the Golden State team. They already had problems with the injuries, but today they will have to add Biedrins, Maggette and Ellis to that list. Maggette and Ellis are two of their best scorers, and without them, it will be only Curry to carry that responsability. Despite he his a rookie, there is no doubt that he have the talent, and he will be the best warriors player playing today. With him and Morrow, the Warriors will build a new team to face Miami today, and will have to use many D-league players for several players.

Warriors starts today an exaust road trip, where they will play against some strong opponents, and will have to give enough rest to Curry and Morrow. Miami have two defeats at home in their last 2 games, and needs to turn things. Wade will return today, and there is no better game for him. Today he can show how he can lead a team that are struggling, and playing against a team with no defense, with few "real" players, and that needs to play with rush, is the perfect game.

Pick: Miami Heat -10.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Since Kings traded Martin, Kings can't score as much as before. Tyreke is big without question, and can support the team, but there isn't any true company to help him in scoring matter. Kings have a young team with talent, but they need more time to get mature and be able to pass better some defenses. They can easily fight for games when they are facing teams that despise them, or go to the game giving only 50% of what they can.

But today, they will face a brilliant Thunders so far, as they face every game as a final. They give what they can give, never less than 100%, and it doesn't matter the opponent. One base of their game is their defense, and at home, it's rare to see Thunders let any team try to force a high pace. In Oklahoma, its Thunders that says how the game will be played. And that how, it's a low pace game, with a good defense, allowing few points from Kings, and scoring enough to win.

They have to control this game easily, as they will go to Denver play next game.

Pick: Under 204 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Indiana Pacers @ Los Angeles Lakers

Indiana got a win in their last game without any problems. The game was easy for them, and that was good for tonight game. They are fresh and willing to take their chance to score many points, and give to Lakers as much problems as they did about one year ago in LA. They will start today a roadtrip of 4 games, 4 kind of games that they have to be good in their offense to try their chances. There can't be better start than make a difficult life today to Lakers, and the only chance they have to do it, it's scoring lot's of points.

The Lakers, are coming from bad performances, despite their wins. In the last game, they were down by many points until they recovered to win by 6 against Denver. In their last 6 games, they lost all them ATS, and the supporters are not very happy about the recent performs. They have to give a big performance to their supporters, and today, they can easily punish Pacers without caring about defense, as they have all the edge in the paint. As a contenders to the title, they have to know play all the kind of games, including a fast game like run and gun.

At home, it's really easy to Lakers scores more than 120 points, and today we can't expect no less than that, with Pacers trying to keep the scoreboard as equalized as possible.

76ers will fight for this game to try save their coach that is with his job in risk. They have to give all they can today, despite they had a game yesterday, as they will face the Cavaliers next. This is the game where they have to take their chances and try to win.

And there is another unquestionable thing. To acomplish their goals today, they have to be focused and be able to ensure at least 45% of their shots. With a fast pace, they will be able to pass the (questionable) Bobcats' defense breach.

The truth is that the Bobcats are not good defenders on the road, specially if we compare it with their home defense. With great scorers and happy with their bounce back in their last games, they will have to be able to score a lot, behind the arc and quick penetrations to supress their lack of Centers.

This game will be a high pace game, with both teams probably reaching at least 100 points.

Pick: Over 188.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Utah Jazz @ Detroit Pistons

I believe that after the break, Detroit was convicted that it were possible to turn things and get a playoff spot. But with a 4-8 record, they showed that despite their wills, the improvement were minimum and not enough. So, their commitment with their games suffered a little bit and is not the same we saw when they won against the Spurs at home.

Despite their last game at home, where they win against Houston in OT without Stuckey, the truth is that the team can't keep that momentum to the next game. Stuckey has been a key in this team, and with him out, and Ben Wallace probably out as well, the team is a little bit soft, as we all know how Prince and Hamilton are, a little bit soft and not the same players we saw in previous years.

Utah will play just the enough to ensure the win, so, will be focus in their defense. With Boozer, Okur, Millsap and others, they will easily secure the frontcourt and smash Detroit there. At home, 27% behind the line is the numbers for Pistons. With their lack of size and strength in the paint and with Stuckey also out, this contest will be a slow game, totally controlled by Utah.

Minnesota is suffering defeats over defeats. Is their game that bad? No, only their defense. They can very easily pass the 100 points mark. Denver, in their last 2 road games, weren't able to reach 90 points.

But that's something odd, as they are with an average of 102 points scored on the road. In the next games, 3 home games, 118 points were the minimum they reached. However one fact is that the Nuggets easily enter the games letting the opponents mark the pace with a high pace. They have great shooters, and a run and gun game is a better garden for them.

Today, Minnesota will try to make it a high pace game, to cover their lack of defense and try their chances. Even facing good defenses, they are able to score a lot, today, if they play that kind of game, Denver can despise a little bit their defense as well.

Pick: Over 216 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

TommyGold

03-11-2010, 01:00 AM

New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder

With CP3 and Peja out, the big shooters are out for New Orleans. With Okafor and West, the size stills there, but they are to soft particularly on the road. Their defense is really bad on the road. Their young guards were able to make a better job than everyone thought when CP3 get hurt, however, they will face today a young roster like them, but have a big edge.

Oklahoma City is a very mature for their age, and that have been their edge all the season, and with Durant (who is scoring at least 30 points per game very easily) leading them, they are among the teams that is fighting for a playoff spot. The recent form is different for both teams, as NOH are with several defeats, and the Thunder is with few defeats lately.

New Orleans is a team that easily gives up the game, but Thunder uses all their irreverence and youth to fight for the games. With a great supporters in Oklahoma, happy for host a NBA team playing a nice game, Oklahoma have all the edge to control this game, and it will be probably another huge night for Durant and his mates.

Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New Jersey Nets @ Dallas Mavericks

After the trade and the break, Dallas entered and amazing streak of wins. And they will enter todays game knowing that they had a great improvement and have to be looked as a contenders.

Even with 2 PGs out, the team will probably keep their offensive pace, that has been huge. Haywood will return today, and will have a hard work has we will face Brook Lopez. Probably in this individual matchup, both players will make a good job offensively, but not in the defense.

The Nets, despite a bad season, are showing some improvements, particularly on the road, where they don't have to face the tension they have at home. They play better on the road, scoring easily, and where they can fight and win games.

Probably they will not win this one, but will make it hard to Dallas, that will have to be alert and keep focus during all game.

Despite the loss that Philadelphia had last night, they have their minds in todays game, as it's a unique chance to bounce back. They are having problems to achieve wins against teams that have a strong study in the defense work. Lucky for them, today they will face Antoni with the Knicks. This means that the defense work is not well trained, as this team focus their game in offense. If they can't score more than the opponent, they can't win.

The 76ers showed that they are able to score, after all, they have Iguodala, Louis Willians, Brand, Young and others. Its true that they have several games with less than 100 points scored, but that's more due to mental problems. They usually slow down and miss to much when they start seeing the opponent to far in the scoreboard, and it's something that his happening very often. But today, they are able to hold the scoreboard enough to keep a high pace, with a accuracy like they are able to.

The Knicks went to Dallas to end a 13 winning streak made by local team, Mavericks. Due to 128 points they scored, they were able to revenge a big loss they had at home. Once again, the team showed that they are able to win when they score more than the opponent (well, this is a rule for every team ahah). It means, they are only able to win when they score a lot. So, today, they will have a matchup where the key is not the best defense, but the best offense.

In Philadelphia, the 76ers are focus in this game, as they know that they can easily score against a power defense team. But the Knicks are passing a good moment, with a monumental win in Dallas. They were the big champions in the trade season, with T-Mac and others arriving to New York. They can let the 76ers scores a lot, but will make their job, and try to score even more than them.

On the end of the first 2 weeks of March 2010, my NBA 2009/2010 HDP & OU Record was 288-215-8, +47.11 units won (503 units risked). On the next two and half weeks the quality of my internet connection on the road wasn't the best and if I was kinda lucky in the third week, then I gave it all back on the fourth week. Anyway, I decided to wait until I could get a grip on things, since I couldn't watch the games and do my research in good condition.

Right now, I just want to prepare my stuff for the playoffs and see if I can get some of the lost units in the last 8 days back. Good Luck to us! :)