UK: Political Earthquake Next May?

The United Kingdom Independence Party [UKIP] not only managed to halve the Conservative vote, but also the Labour Vote and the Liberal Democrat vote.

UKIP stands for small government, low taxes, and preservation of Britain's identity and sovereignty, values that appeal to Conservative voters; and it wants to pull the United Kingdom out of the European Union. UKIP also stands for strong policies on law and order and immigration, which appeal to the traditional old Labour heartlands.

Strategically, to pick up Labour votes, UKIP would need to move to the left, but examples in France, Switzerland, Denmark and Geert Wilders's PVV in the Netherlands, show that it is possible to attract voters from both the left and the right.

Last Thursday, the United Kingdom Independence Party [UKIP] won its first ever seat in the British House of Commons. For years, UKIP, led by the flamboyant Nigel Farage, has been a major party among the British contingent in the European Parliament, but winning a seat in the British national parliament had so far never succeeded.

UKIP stands for the preservation of Britain's identity and sovereignty. It wants to pull the United Kingdom out of the European Union and aims for tougher immigration policies. Last August, Douglas Carswell, Member of Parliament for Clacton in Essex (a prosperous county to the East of London) defected from the Conservative Party to UKIP. Carswell had been elected for the Conservatives in 2010 with a 53% majority – a 28% lead over Labour. After his defection, he gave up his seat, so that a by-election had to be held. On October 9, Carswell was re-elected on a UKIP ticket, with 60% of the vote and a 35% lead over the Conservatives.

The interesting thing is that UKIP not only managed to more than halve the Conservative vote (from 53% to 25%) but also the Labour vote (from 25% to 11%), and the Liberal Democrat vote (from 13% to 1.5%.)

UKIP also did extremely well in the by-election in Heywood and Middleton, a constituency near Manchester in the north of England. This part of the country is a Labour Party stronghold. In 2010, Heywood and Middleton went to Labour with 40% of the vote – a 13% lead over the Conservatives.

Last Thursday, Labour won 41% of the vote, but UKIP came second with an astonishing 39%. Four years ago, the party had only received 3% of the vote. The Conservatives saw their share of the vote drop from 27% to 12%; the Liberal Democrats from 23% to 5%.

UKIP originated as a party of dissatisfied Conservative voters. However, as Nigel Farage pointed out last Friday, "UKIP is now tearing great holes in the old Labour vote." Heywood and Middleton was considered a safe Labour seat, at a time when Labour was in the opposition against an unpopular coalition government of Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

As if last Thursday's blows to the British political establishment were not enough, on Sunday, a nationwide opinion poll revealed that one in four Britons intend to vote UKIP in next year's general elections. According to John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the ratings would result in UKIP winning 128 seats in the next House of Commons, against 253 seats for Labour, 187 seats for the Conservatives, 11 seats for the Liberal Democrats, and 71 seats for other parties, such as the Scottish, Welsh and Irish Nationalists and the Ulster Unionists. The Conservatives currently hold 303 seats, Labour 257 seats, the Liberal Democrats 56 seats, UKIP 1 seat, and the others 33 seats.

If this prognosis becomes reality at the next elections, which are to held by May 7, 2015 at the latest, a coalition government of the Conservatives and UKIP would still be 11 seats short of a majority. Hence, Britain would become virtually impossible to govern unless there were a coalition of Labour and the Conservatives, which is highly unlikely. However, since UKIP has not lost its momentum yet, it might very well be able to pick up an additional 11 seats from other parties than the Conservatives (read: Labour), which would result in a coalition government of the Conservatives and UKIP.

Strategically, it is currently in the interest of both the Conservatives and UKIP that UKIP move to the left in order to pick up Labour votes. Traditionally, UKIP is economically to the right. The party calls itself libertarian and stands for a small state and low taxes. These values appeal mostly to the Conservative voters. However, UKIP also stands for strong policies on law and order and immigration, which appeal to voters in the traditional old Labour heartlands. Some commentators, such as the editors of The Economist, expect that UKIP leader Farage will eventually "pull a muscle" when he tries to bend towards Labour and Tory voters simultaneously.

The examples of Marine Le Pen's National Front in France and Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom [PVV] in the Netherlands, however, show that it is possible to attract voters from both the right and the left. Mr. Wilders' party successfully combines anti-tax and anti-immigration policies. So do the Swiss People's Party [SVP] in Switzerland and the Danish People's Party [DF] in Denmark. Given the Anglo-Saxon orientation of the Dutch and Mr. Wilders' admiration for Margaret Thatcher, the PVV especially might serve as an example for UKIP.

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5 Reader Comments

steven L • Oct 20, 2014 at 00:14

So be IT.

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SURDEY Germain ( Mr.) • Oct 19, 2014 at 10:09

I would like to strongly disagree with the opinion that LATIN AMERICA IS DEMOCRATIC.I know all the continent since 1966, from Mexico to Chile and I am currentlhy resident of ECUADOR and PERU for over 18 years now. LATIN AMERICA IS NOT DEMOCRATIC. If you call DEMOCRACY the fact that the people are called to vote every 4 or 5 years to elect a President and Congress, then IT IS DEMOCRATIC. But this is NOT to be called a DEMOCRACY because, in reality, the people DO NOT HAVE ANYTHING TO SAY ! The so-called ELITES are doing what they want ( read CORRUPTION) and the money NEVER reaches the huge majority of POOR people ( 70% of the population with few exceptions, amongst which CHILE stands out !) And this hasn't changed a bit since 1966 when I first set foot in this part of the world. DEMOCRACY is a way of living, NOT THE CARBON COPY OF WESTERN INSTITUTIONS forced upon nations WHO NEVER HAVE EXPERIENCED IT IN THEIR HISTORY ! This is also valid for the ARAB OR MUSLIM COUNTRIES or even for THAILAND, amongst others. PLEASE STOP DREAMING and, before talking about countries which you do not know or where you have only spent a few days or weeks, please talk to people who ARE LIVING THERE and are coming from really DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES. I AM AN ECONOMIST WHO SPENT 50 OF HIS 75 YEARS TRAVELLING FOR BUSINESS, AND LIVING IN 4 OF THE 5 CONTINENTS, AND QUITE FED UP WITH ALL THOSE SO-CALLED ECONOMISTS WHO ARE JUST SITTING IN THEIR OFFICES AND NEVER REALLY LIVED IN AND STUDIED ON THE SPOT THE COUNTRIES THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT.

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vivienne leijonhufvud • Oct 18, 2014 at 09:21

For what it is worth my personal opinion is UKIP will have a landslide, not for exiting the EU but for curtailing the number of immigrant Muslims and terrorists now in the UK. Immigration really has little to do with Christian white immigrants or black Christian immigrants. This is more about reducing the numbers of Muslims from Pakistan/India/Indonesia/Africa/European nations supporting Islam. England has had enough and wants to win back her identity which has been swamped by liberal/left wing ideas of multiculturalism. Changing the Union Jack to accommodate Islam is against the wishes of British Black and white majority. There have been problems with Pakistani grooming gangs since the late '70's. The first case was of a young girl I recall found murdered in a car park (her mother set up a campaign back then to handle this). The Mother from Sheffield was not listened to or taken seriously. I recall Mother's name was Irene I spoke with her myself back in 81/82. So Britain is sick of the abuse against our underage girls and children being sold by unscrupulous care workers who work both in the Councils as officers as well as in the care homes. Time for a massive shake up in the UK and UKIP will do it. I will even exercise my own vote - I am still a British subject living abroad. I would believe many more expats will do the same.

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Paul Cerar • Oct 18, 2014 at 09:19

Good for them! I hope they also mass-deport non-Muslim British fascists who collaborate with with foreign terrorists. Cancel their citizenship and let them live in the terrorists' homelands!

Paul CerarToronto, Canada

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IftikharAhmad • Oct 18, 2014 at 06:26

Tory, Labour, Lib Dem, UKIP and all other parties are the foot and mouth diseases of the British society. All politicians are selfish, corrupt and stupid, because they are the product of British education system.
IAhttp://www.londonschoolofislamiocs.org.uk

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