Consumer confidence high before Christmas

The consumer confidence indicator (CCI) stood
at 19.5 in December whereas in November it was 17.6 and in October
15.8. Confidence in the economy was last this strong in February
2011. Last year in December, the CCI received the value 2.4. The
long-term average for the CCI is 11.7. The data are based on
Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which 1,205 people
resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 19 December.

Consumer confidence indicator (CCI)

Of the four components of the CCI expectations of one’s
own and Finland’s economy and of the general development of
unemployment improved in December from the previous month.
Assessments of the household’s saving possibilities remained
unchanged. Compared with the corresponding period last year, all
the components improved clearly in December.

In December, consumers’ views were very positive about
Finland's economy and the assessment of unemployment development
was also optimistic. In turn, expectations concerning consumers'
own economy were still cautious. Consumers nevertheless considered
their household's saving possibilities good over the next 12
months.

In December, consumers regarded the time favourable for buying
durable goods and especially for taking out a loan but not for
saving. The personal threat of unemployment experienced by employed
consumers has recently diminished year-on-year.

Consumers' own and Finland's economy

In December, 45 per cent of consumers believed that
Finland’s economic situation would improve during the next 12
months, while 15 per cent of them thought that the country’s
economy would deteriorate. The corresponding proportions were 42
and 16 per cent in November, and pessimistic 24 and 38 per cent one
year ago in December.

In all, 27 per cent of consumers believed in December that their
own economy would improve and 13 per cent of them feared it would
worsen over the year. One year ago the respective proportions were
23 and 16 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Unemployment and inflation

Altogether 37 per cent of consumers thought in December that
unemployment would decrease over the year, while 23 per cent of
them believed it would increase. The corresponding proportions were
34 and 28 per cent in November and gloomy 10 and 60 per cent one
year ago.

Thirteen per cent of employed persons reckoned in December that
their personal threat of unemployment had lessened over the past
few months, while 17 per cent thought it had grown. Twenty-three
per cent of employed persons felt that they were not threatened by
unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in December that consumer prices would go up
by 1.6 per cent over the next 12 months. The predicted long-term
average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent. Consumers estimated that
inflation is currently 1.2 per cent. In December last year the
estimate was lower, 0.8 per cent.

Buying of durable goods

In December, 47 per cent of consumers thought that the time was
favourable for buying durable goods. General intentions to spend
money were still very moderate. Fewer households than usual, or
fifteen per cent were fairly or very certain to buy a car and only
five per cent a dwelling during the next 12 months. In December, 19
per cent of households were planning to spend money on renovating
their dwelling within a year.

Saving and taking out a loan

In December, 53 per cent of consumers considered the time
favourable for saving. The long-term average proportion is 58 per
cent. In all, 67 per cent of households had been able to lay aside
some money and 80 per cent believed they would be able to do so
during the next 12 months.

In December, 70 per cent of consumers regarded the time
favourable for raising a loan. The long-term average proportion is
62 per cent. Thirteen per cent of households considered raising a
loan within one year.

Consumer confidence by major region and population
group

In December, consumer confidence in the economy was strong
throughout the country apart from Eastern Finland. Among population
groups, upper-level salaried employees and entrepreneurs were most
optimistic. The unemployed had the least optimistic expectations
concerning economic development.

Prevalence of modern equipment in households in
November

In November, as many as 85 per cent of households with persons
aged 15 to 84 had a home computer and 88 per cent had an Internet
connection at their disposal. Fifty-three per cent of households
owned a tablet. Seventy-seven per cent of households owned at least
one smartphone and 18 per cent some type of wearable technology
like an activity tracker, smartwatch or optical head-mounted
display.

Thirty-one per cent of households were watching a smart TV in
November. Nearly as many households had a gaming console and some
even a camera copter. Eighty per cent of households owned a car in
November. More information about the prevalence of equipment can be
found in Appendix figures 12 to 15 and in the database tables.

Consumers' views of the economy

Average 10/1995-

Max. 10/1995-

Min. 10/1995-

12/2015

11/2016

12/2016

Outlook

A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI =
(B2+B4+B7+D2)/4

11.7

22.9

-6.5

2.4

17.6

19.5

++

B2 Own economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

8.3

14.1

2.3

4.2

7.4

8.4

=

B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

3.3

25.3

-27.1

-10.4

12.0

14.9

++

B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per
cent)

2.2

4.6

0.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time
(balance)

-4.0

27.6

-51.1

-29.7

2.4

6.3

+

B8 Own threat of unemployment now
(balance)

-1.4

7.6

-18.8

-5.2

-0.5

-0.8

=

C1 Favourability of time for purchasing
durables (balance)

18.3

41.8

-14.2

16.8

25.2

21.1

+

C2 Favourability of time for saving
(balance)

10.3

36.8

-19.6

4.5

3.5

4.0

-

C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan
(balance)

17.4

42.0

-47.1

20.1

30.8

27.7

+

D2 Household's saving possibilities in the
next 12 months (balance)

39.5

52.2

10.9

45.5

48.7

48.5

+

The balance figures are obtained by deducting
the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive
answers. The consumer confidence indicator (CCI)
is the average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The
balance figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100
and +100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter
the view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is
very good, + Outlook is good, = Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is
poor, -- Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average
has been compared to standard deviation.

EU results

The (seasonally adjusted) Consumer Survey results for all EU
countries are released on the European Commission website: European
Commission, DG ECFIN,
Business and Consumer Survey Results .