Tuesday, July 30, 2013

The White Sox agreed to a trade Tuesday night that would send Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox.

The trade, which is pending the review of Peavy’s medical reports, is part of a three-way deal that includes the Detroit Tigers.

The White Sox are set to receive at least outfielder Avisail Garcia from Detroit in the trade. Boston infielder Jose Iglesias also is reportedly involved in the deal, though where he would land is still unclear.

Peavy was held out of Tuesday night’s start so the White Sox didn’t hurt his value prior to Wednesday’s 3 p.m. CT trade deadline.

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This is possibly the funniest thing ever written. I type with exactly two fingers and with my eyes so locked on the keys that I need to edit every post about five times. I produce about 12 words per minute. I started this post yesterday.

I tend to over value prospects/young players. A lot. As a Red Sox fan who was slightly miffed rather than upset that Iglesias was part of the deal that probably means it was a good deal for Boston.

I'm not sold on the Red Sox FO but from a major league team building perspective given the monetary resources available after the Dodger Dump and the type of minor league depth they have behind Iglesias this was probably smart.

Hasn't Iglesias been playing 3rd base? I know he's best at short but I wondered if he would also be seen as somebody who could be put in for defense later in games, or substitute for Miguel if Miguel needs time off. Miguel is still hurting.

I don't think the Tigers want Martinez' bat out of the lineup. (especially if Peralta will be gone.)

Did other teams make trades based on expectations of suspensions? Or is it the case that if Melky Cabrera & Bartolo Colon won't get suspended then Jhonny is the most important guy expected to go?

Not that it fixes 3B, but Cherington might think it does: I'm fully expecting a Michael Young trade before the day is out. The team is calling up Holt, meanwhile Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are both still in AAA...

The way people are describing Iglesias, it sounds like Brendan Ryan, more than Andrelton Simmons, is a good comparable? At the very least, he's a good example of the ceiling of an all-defence shortstop, and his value depends pretty strongly on his fielding. bWAR has him between 4.5 WAR and 2.1 WAR from 2009-2012 (the years he averaged over 120 games a year) and has him with 0.6 WAR this year as his Rfield has come down from its otherworldly heights of 28 to 7. fWAR (and UZR, ostensibly) is less bullish, with 2.8 WAR and 1.3 WAR in those years (and -0.6 WAR this year), with very, very good fielding numbers of around 13 in those years. So whether you think Ryan is above-average or below-average depends on the exact value you peg on his glove which, in both cases, is tremendous. Basically, if you want to be an above-average regular at shortstop without the ability to hit, you have to be a really, really, really good fielder (which is not news at all).

Not that it fixes 3B, but Cherington might think it does: I'm fully expecting a Michael Young trade before the day is out. The team is calling up Holt, meanwhile Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are both still in AAA...

I hope they don't trade for Young. Apparently he told PHI that he will only agree to be traded to Texas.

Bogaerts is not yet on the 40 man, which may be a reason they haven't called him up yet.

Like I said earlier, my gut reaction is to be sad Garcia is gone, but I'm trying to console myself with the fact that, since he's taken over in Detroit, pretty much every prospect Dombrowski has traded has gone bust-o. Jurrjens is probably the only guy who provided a lot of value.

Harvey's, I think you are right, that would potentially have been a good fit. I think the Sox may have been willing to do it.

Dan, Michael Young huh? Not sure how I feel about that. I guess the plan is to try and contend while not burning any of the elite prospects in a trade. I think I'm probably ok with that. I guess they may figure Young is what he is and its a hedge against younger guys not being ready. If they eat the money I would hope it wouldn't take more than a bag of baseballs to get him.

We all watch this game because we all love it. There's some entertainment value in a guy like Iglesias...a fair ammount. More so than
I think you'd get from a typical "Bulldog Starter", although YMMV, and nothing is more entertaining than winning the game. The fact that
Peavy doesn't walk people up's his EV for me a tad, I guess.

Iglesias is 23 and doesn't have to do much at the plate to contribute in a positive fashion. he will be playing for a manager and organization that will let him do his thing without nagging on what he doesn't do.

Eureka! You're a genius, Harveys! That's the comp I keep reaching for but couldn't quite grasp--Iglesias is the new Rafael Belliard.

Can somebody explain Iglesias' contract situation. I thought he got a MLB contract so he would have two seasons left before FA, but bb-ref has him as an FA in 2019. He is out of options, right?

Arbitration and FA eligibility depends on major league service time, not 40-man roster service time.

I read the whole thread, and didn't see this point: Iglesias might be a better offensive fit in Tiger Stadium than in any other AL ballpark.

Even if that's true, what's that worth to Iglesias? 25 points of OPS? So he'll OPS .565 instead of .540? Iglesias' bat is a good fit for a Sally League park.

The Belliard comp looks pretty much perfect to me. Tremendous, tremendous glove, good enough that Belliard stayed in the majors for 17 years, but was never quite a regular because he hit like a pitcher and managers were usually trying to get some extra pop in their lineups. Seems likely Iglesias is headed for a similar career. But for now he's a good option to plug the Tigers' shortstop hole until someone that can play shortstop and OPS+ at least 70 comes along.

Like I said earlier, my gut reaction is to be sad Garcia is gone, but I'm trying to console myself with the fact that, since he's taken over in Detroit, pretty much every prospect Dombrowski has traded has gone bust-o. Jurrjens is probably the only guy who provided a lot of value.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I like Avisail, but Dombrowski's record in trading prospects (with the Tigers) has been pretty good. Jurrjens had some good years, Matt Joyce has been decent, and Jacob Turner might turn out to be an OK #2-3 starter.

But none of the prospects have really come back to haunt them. Most of them have flopped and/or settled in as unexciting role players — Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Humberto Sanchez, Gorkys Hernandez, Scott Sizemore, Wilkin Ramirez, Chance Ruffin, etc. (Ramon Santiago flopped and then came back to be a role player for the Tigers.)

Minor league numbers are not destiny obviously, players can improve, etc., but it looks like Iglesias will have to improve significantly to reach Ryan as a hitter,who knows, given his June, maybe he has, or maybe he just had a hot month

Find it hard to believe the White Sox couldn't have just traded Alexei Ramirez for Garcia, the Tigers seem desperate.

Then they could have moved Peavy for something a more than 1 decent 20 year old. Peavy may have about 50 more starts in him, but the Red Sox got that for cheap as Peavy's salary commitments seem in line for what he provides (about #2 starter). Seems like Hahn panicked instead of waiting for the Winter Meetings to move Peavy for developing players.

beating a very dead horse, but Iglesias is gonna have to have a GREAT glove (not good) and he's going to have have had to improved substantially and atypically as a hitter if he's gonna have a career as anything other than defensive sub

The Belliard comp looks pretty much perfect to me. Tremendous, tremendous glove, good enough that Belliard stayed in the majors for 17 years, but was never quite a regular because he hit like a pitcher and managers were usually trying to get some extra pop in their lineups. Seems likely Iglesias is headed for a similar career. But for now he's a good option to plug the Tigers' shortstop hole until someone that can play shortstop and OPS+ at least 70 comes along.

Belliard's career OPS is .530, OPS+ of 46, best season with more than rwo PA had OPS+ of 61. Looking at Iglesias' numbers thus far, he'd need to maintain OPS of about .580 to have OPS+ of 46. Pretty low floor. OPS about .640 would put him near the OPS+ of 70.

So if the Red Sox don't acquire Young, are we looking at Holt/Snyder straight platoon? Or is it going to be Boegarts? I don't mind either solution over what we had (an A+ glove SS wasted at 3B, without the bat to fit the position)

My guess is they'll give Middlebrooks another shot for a month, and then see where things stand at roster expansion time. The fact that calling up WMB wasn't their immediate move is weird and a bit scary, though.

but Iglesias is gonna have to have a GREAT glove (not good) and he's going to have have had to improved substantially and atypically as a hitter if he's gonna have a career as anything other than defensive sub

A. Simmons leads all SS's with 4.0 Bwar....his line is lower than what ZIPS has for Iggy moving forward this year.

The Iglesias love does remind me of the misplaced regard for Ordonez. Iglesias would have to hit more than the projections suggest is likely to have any real long-term value, so this seems like a good move for Boston. Of course, if Iglesias somehow hits for the Tigers, the dissenters will have a decade or more to remind everyone how prescient they were. Win-Win.

A. Simmons leads all SS's with 4.0 Bwar....his line is lower than what ZIPS has for Iggy moving forward this year.

IOW, I disagree.

1: BREF has Simmons with +47 fielding runs in 151 games
which would utterly shatter the all time single season mark of +35 (per BBREF) (In fact his +28 in 2/3 pf a year this year is already #8 all time, per BBREF).

So fine, if Iglesias is the best fielding SS of all time, then he can be a very good regular even with a replacement level bat.

2: Simmons has an OPS+ of 79, Iglesia's minor league career suggests a guy who will hit around 50, actually reaching his revised ZiPS projection would indeed mean that he has substantially and atypically improved upon his minor league numbers.

Being a great fielder and a borderline/replacement level hitter means he could have Mark Belanger's career- or Adam Everett's

I'm not knocking his glove, however, he is a guy who has over a 1000 professional at bats that say he hits like a pitcher, and aside from that he's had this bizarre 1.5 month stretch where he inexplicably put up a BABIP near .500,
ZiPS projects him to hit .273/.318/.330 the rest of the way, my money is on the under.

FOR THIS SEASON: In terms of cost, from Boston's POV, looking at (projected August + September) versus (July actuals): Holt/Snyder at 3B and Drew at SS (with WMB and Bogaerts as depth) easily rates to outperform their July combinations that included Iglesius. It is arguable, then, that Boston is not sacrificing much if anything by trading Iggy. What they gain in Peavey is a SP who has excellent value, especially if Buchholz is done. Red Sox are significantly improving their chances of winning the WS this season. That's a big win for the Red Sox.

FOR THE FUTURE: Bogaerts > Iglesius at SS, and the Sox have plenty of good left-side IF prospects (e.g. WMB, Cecchini, Marrero), so Sox are dealing from depth. Sox control Peavey next season (14.5 M$) and for 2015 if they choose to make a QO. Even if Iglesius eventually turns into a hitter, he may turn out to have been relatively redundant among WMB and Bogaerts and the minor leaguers. That also feels like a big win for the Red Sox.

I'm not saying that this was a bad deal for Chicago (it wasn't) or for Detroit (I don't know, but it was at least perfectly defensible) but it's a super deal for Boston.

I'm ignoring the three minor leaguers Boston sent to the White Sox. Any of the three of them might turn out to be quite valuable, but none of them, at this point, rate that sort of consideration. I'm also ignoring Boston's gain of Chicago's RP Villareal, a RH RP who beats RHB and therefore perfectly fits a Red Sox need this season. He's currently on the DL.

Ben Cherington ain't getting his daps. This is a (another, with respect to the Big Nicky Punto Trade plus all of the offseason pickups) transaction that provides limited downside (Iggy turns out to be a really good hitter) and measurable-plus-potential upside (Peavey doesn't get injured in the next 3 months plus Peavey doesn't get injured in the next 18 months).

but its not like he'd be the only player who made large strides after making the majors

I think people would be more inclined towards this POV if some of his peripherals were better (iso, isoD, walk %, etc) but it's really just an absurdly BABIP rate that's driving his slash line and once that falls back to normal there goes any offensive value.

I kinda fail to see how he's anything better than a rich man's Brendan Ryan, there is value in that, but not more than 1-3 WAR a season, at best.

I think people would be more inclined towards this POV if some of his peripherals were better (iso, isoD, walk %, etc) but it's really just an absurdly BABIP rate that's driving his slash line and once that falls back to normal there goes any offensive value.

I'm talking about his career line, which is propped up by a fairly normal looking .328 BABIP

68? You're very generous. I accept. Name the terms (and, let me say, without any bitterness, that I haven't collected on my Wily Mo bets made here some years ago...not that you were involved in that...just saying).