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Democrats' message problem

A new National Public Radio poll conducted by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Republican pollster Glen Bolger and released this morning suggests that Democrats have a major messaging problem heading into the fall.

The poll tested a variety of potential/likely messages on health care, the economy and financial reform for generic Republican and Democratic candidates in 70 of the most competitive House districts in the country -- 60 held by Democrats, 10 held by Republicans -- and consistently found that the GOP argument gained more traction with voters.

Let's look at the overall messages for each side tested by the two pollsters.

The Democratic message:

"The partisan wars go on in Washington, but I'm focused on the battle for regular people. I voted for tax cuts for middle class families and small businesses and companies that create American jobs and on tough Wall Street reform. They voted to let Wall Street keep the money and do what they want, keep tax breaks for big corporations that send jobs overseas. They bailed out the banks, left the country in debt and voted against helping the unemployed in the resulting crisis. People are under the financial gun, and I vote against earmarks and to control spending."

The Republican message:

"It's time for the Democrats to stop living in the past by blaming others for nearly ten percent unemployment and their runaway government spending. I am focused on the future. I was not part of the Republican Congress that spent too much, and my goal will be to stop the wasteful spending that has only gotten significantly worse with one party control of Washington. The Democrats are growing the size and scope of government, and it's hurting our economy. We need a check and balance to make sure Washington listens to the people, rather than just spend, spend, spend."

Presented with those two options, 39 percent of respondents in the 70 House districts tested said they agreed with the Democratic statement while 52 percent chose the Republican statement.

Inside the numbers was no more encouraging for Democrats. In the 60 Democratic districts, 40 percent agreed with the Democratic statement and 51 percent sided with the GOP statement; in the so-called "tier one" seats -- the 30 most competitive seats -- 39 percent said they agreed with the Democratic statement while 51 percent chose the Republican message.

The results run counter to the deeply held belief among some leading Democratic strategists that the best way to limit Democratic losses this fall is to simultaneously embrace the accomplishments of the 111th Congress while raising questions about the lack of Republican solutions to the major problems facing the country.

Asked whether they would vote for the Democratic incumbent in their districts "because he/she is fighting for change and making progress addressing the problems our nation is facing" or a Republican candidate "because at least he or she won't be a rubber stamp for national Democrats and all of their wasteful spending", 40 percent sided with the former statement while 50 percent expressed support for the latter. In the "tier one" races the numbers are even starker with 36 percent choosing the Democratic incumbent and 50 percent opting for the Republican challenger.

The "rubber stamp" idea is similar to the messaging House and Senate Democrats ran on in 2006 when they successfully seized majorities from Republicans. While the party did have "Six for '06" issue agenda -- detailing what they would do if they won the majority -- the clear emphasis of their messaging was simply: We need to put a stop to the Bush Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress and the only way to do that is hand Democrats back some control.

The NPR poll is -- like any other piece of survey research -- a snapshot in time. And, there are data points within it -- most notably the fact that 49 percent of respondents in the 70 districts believe President George W. Bush is more responsible for the current state of the economy while 36 percent blame President Obama -- that are rightly regarded as rays of optimism for Democrats.

But, taken broadly, the NPR poll suggests that on the major issues of the day, the Democratic argument is trumped by the Republican one. There are still 140 days between now and November 2 but, according to Greenberg, the basic tenets of the election are already set.

"The effort by individual campaigns will have to push against walls that seem very hard to move at this point," he wrote. That sentence will keep a lot of Democrats up at night in the days and week to come.

Actually BWJ it's a bit past the attack ad stage, Angle should be on a no-fly list and maybe even get hauled in by the FBI for questioning. People who've called for the assassination of public officials are breaking the law.

The Dems problem isn't the message. It's the inability to punch back.
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The hate broadcasters and politicians spew their teabagger, bigoted venom 24/7 with NO response from the Dems. The false narratives and fake controversies created by the haters (last week the bogus fake issue was BHO saying "@ss") take hold and the Dems are put on the defensive. We see this cycle over and over. If the BHO and the Dems can't find the stomach to call out publicly and loudly the Becks, Rand Pauls, and Angles as neo-fascist fools, it's going to be tough to win the public debate. Good grief, Angle called for "armed insurrection" to take back the country -- that should be material for one hundred attack ads -- yet, strangely, the Dems are not talking about it non-stop.
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The talk is louder, coming from even O'Reilly, about HRC primary-ing BHO in 2012. Within O-Nation, there's more talk of having BHO step aside in 2012 and letting Hillary Rodham Clinton (star of a questionable Fix produced video), with her grievance/grudge-powered energy and army of Hillarians, do her thing against the vast right wing conspiracy which is very real. Sadly, maybe it's time...

Last time, Obama cheated by saying he would be in the federal campaign finance program - then he pulled out of it.

And no one ever reviewed if Obama's credit card contributions were all from the US - because supposedly they had turned off the settings on the computer - which would check that compliance with the law.

"The NPR poll is -- like any other piece of survey research -- a snapshot in time. And, there are data points within it -- most notably the fact that 49 percent of respondents in the 70 districts believe President George W. Bush is more responsible for the current state of the economy while 36 percent blame President Obama -- that are rightly regarded as rays of optimism for Democrats."

No kidding. And the poll questions/ statements you posted as 'proof'of trouble for Democrats are highly flawed, technically, for this type of poll. This is so right-tilted it's falling over.

Is there anything in the world that is not another Democratic problem.

1) If they get elected and are in the leadership and pass significant legislation: it is an anti-incumbent year that oddly will favor only Republican incumbents who have done nothing.

2) If Democratic candidates win primaries and elections as incumbents and in special elections that means especially nothing because the electorate in speaking in tongues to The Fix. No number of incumbents winning, say several hundred nationwide, will make up for the 5 or 6 we can name that for various reasons LOST. Reasons don't matter when we have live a narrative. Tea Bags are going to win except when they get the Republicans to lose safe seats.

3) If the Democrats get contributions they are corrupt and so will not get elected with the anti-incumbent mood in the nation. Business as Democrats won't fly this time or any time really even if they did a achieve a majority (they could lose it!).

4) If Democrats don't get contributions then the electorate doesn't support them b/c (you guessed it - the anti-incumbent mood) so they have no chance in November.

5) If candidates spend heavily on their elections it means that they will not get elected b/c you know...

5) You guess it - anti-incumbent and democratic problem of some kind again...

ddawd writes
"Also, the Dem message is a lot more sprawling than the GOP message. This could either be a problem with the poll or a problem with actual Democrat messaging."

While I think Dem messaging is atrocious, and agree with the assessment that they have a messaging 'problem', I am skeptical that this poll was a valid way to demonstrate that. Specifically, are there any candidates that are using either of the messages they polled?

Overall, the question they asked is an interesting one, and there's something to be learned about how voters respond to tone; I'm just skeptical that the messages they polled are indicative of either party's messaging strategy - much less any specific candidates.

He needs to lay down the gauntlet before BP -- not kowtow, as recommended by the likes of Mike Bloomberg. Send your antagonists a linguistic lesson, Mr. President -- call the company "British Petroleum" on first reference.

Gibbs already has indicated that POTUS has the power to demand an escrow fund -- but BP must be stripped of any authority to disburse funds. Anything less will look like a retreat from the trial balloons hoisted by Gibbs and Axelrod.

And please, Mr. President, refrain from telling Gulf residents that their region will emerge even better than before in the wake of this monumental eco-disaster. This oil is going to be around for more than a decade, if the Exxon Valdez spill is any indication. A rose-colored outlook only invites cynicism.

Don't over-promise -- but show America that you've got the brass to stand up to a multi-national, to the point of threatening to seize its U.S. assets if BP doesn't accede to your demand for an independent restitution fund.

And get those skimmers on the water... it has taken far too long. You have not been served well by those in charge of the federal response -- maybe too many cozy dinners with Tony Hayward?

Also, the Dem message is a lot more sprawling than the GOP message. This could either be a problem with the poll or a problem with actual Democrat messaging.

I'm not sure how much weight to place on polls like these. Neither party really stands in favor now and I don't see there being some kind of wave for one party or the other. It will probably come down to a bunch of local races.

Again I never trust the mob we call the American People because they are willing ti hand over power to the Grand Onstructionist Party who only cares about their limosene and private jet riding, rich contry club donors. If people think we have gridlock now, give the GOP Congress and nothing will get done. They are the ones who handed the country over to the corporations who care nothing for the mob. Americans seem to be a bunch of dumb cattle.

Again I never trust the mob we call the American People because they are willing ti hand over power to the Grand Onstructionist Party who only cares about their limosene and private jet riding, rich contry club donors. If people think we have gridlock now, give the GOP Congress and nothing will get done. They are the ones who handed the country over to the corporations who care nothing for the mob. Americans seem to be a bunch of dumb cattle.

Again I never trust the mob we call the American People because they are willing ti hand over power to the Grand Onstructionist Party who only cares about their limosene and private jet riding, rich contry club donors. If people think we have gridlock now, give the GOP Congress and nothing will get done. They are the ones who handed the country over to the corporations who care nothing for the mob. Americans seem to be a bunch of dumb cattle.

Again I never trust the mob we call the American People because they are willing ti hand over power to the Grand Onstructionist Party who only cares about their limosene and private jet riding, rich contry club donors. If people think we have gridlock now, give the GOP Congress and nothing will get done. They are the ones who handed the country over to the corporations who care nothing for the mob. Americans seem to be a bunch of dumb cattle.

No matter how much I like the message or the platform, all I can see the Democrats doing is continuing to transfer tax payer money to the public employee union thugs.

Do they really think that just because somebody supports the right to chose or gay rights that they also support a system in which it is impossible to fire a bad school teacher and public employees have the right to retire 10 or 15 years before the people to pay their salary?

While it is generally true that the Dems have a messaging problem, I am curious about how the pollsters selected these particular messages. Are they from the respective parties' candidate talking points packages, or what?

As the global warming farce crumbles, it comes to light that very few scientists ever believed in it to begin with:

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change misled the press and public into believing that thousands of scientists backed its claims on manmade global warming, according to Mike Hulme, a prominent climate scientist and IPCC insider. The actual number of scientists who backed that claim was "only a few dozen experts," he states in a paper for Progress in Physical Geography, co-authored with student Martin Mahony.
"Claims such as '2,500 of the world's leading scientists have reached a consensus that human activities are having a significant influence on the climate' are disingenuous," the paper states unambiguously, adding that they rendered "the IPCC vulnerable to outside criticism."
Hulme, Professor of Climate Change in the School of Environmental Sciences at the University of East Anglia — the university of Climategate fame — is the founding Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and one of the UK's most prominent climate scientists. Among his many roles in the climate change establishment, Hulme was the IPCC's co-ordinating Lead Author for its chapter on 'Climate scenario development' for its Third Assessment Report and a contributing author of several other chapters.
Meanwhile, as Gateway Pundit points out, the Arctic ice cap has only three years left to melt to comply with Al Gore's prophesy. I wonder if Vegas is taking odds.

Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is collapsing even faster than the other massively hyped lie of our time, Barack Hussein Obama's absurd presidency. Unfortunately, that won't necessarily prevent BHO from plunging us into a depression by ramming through Cap & Trade in its name.

On a day when the Post Politics page is reporting: that Sharon Angle is advocating armed insurrection against the Federal Government, that Meg Whitman committed the kind of physical smackdown of an employee that one more commonly associates with Linda McMahon's WWE, that Cheney-loving Blackwater Founder Eric Prince is FLEEING the country ... I'll take the Democrats' "message" problems over the gopers' message of hate,sheer stupidity, violence, abuse, disrespect, criminal activity and treason any day of the week.

Whats amazing is that while at least this time around the liberal MSM is warning of a 1994-blowout for the GOP, the Democrat base doesn't want to listen, as evidenced by Noacoler.

This is why the over-saturation of liberal media outlets is creating another wall of denial for rank-and-file Democrats. Don't like the news? Just change the channel to MSNBC, they'll give you what you want to hear.

Chris, Chris, please. The Dems in all 50 states have become progressive socialist pacifists and whacked out enviros. They embrace any tax and spending package to bribe voters, minorities, special interest groups. They do not stand for liberty or freedom except to dis American national security or free enterprise. And you wonder about their message? The MSM, guys like you, have covered their...... for decades and now you like Obama are exposed as 'emperors without any clothes.' And you wonder about 'the message.' They are frauds and socialists , Chris. No American should vote for any of them : whether in state legs., guv races, or Congressional races. All they will get in return is: more regs, taxes and spending. And these dolts have no agenda at all to deal with the expiring Bush tax cuts that has been saving us so far. And you wonder about their message??? Are you a dunce?

Chris, Chris, please. The Dems in all 50 states have become progressive socialist pacifists and whacked out enviros. They embrace any tax and spending package to bribe voters, minorities, special interest groups. They do not stand for liberty or freedom except to dis American national security or free enterprise. And you wonder about their message? The MSM, guys like you, have covered their...... for decades and now you like Obama are exposed as 'emperors without any clothes.' And you wonder about 'the message.' They are frauds and socialists , Chris. No American should vote for any of them : whether in state legs., guv races, or Congressional races. All they will get in return is: more regs, taxes and spending. And these dolts have no agenda at all to deal with the expiring Bush tax cuts that has been saving us so far. And you wonder about their message??? Are you a dunce?

In the endless wake of the BP oil spill, the new word is leadership. Everyone from Mitt Romney to James Carville to Maureen Dowd says that Barack Obama is in desperate need of some. In the New York Times, Dowd questioned how Obama came to “lose control of his own narrative.” On Good Morning America, Carville told George Stephanopoulos that Obama “looks like he’s not in control.” Romney penned a USA Today column about the absence of presidential command. “When a crisis is upon us,” he wrote, “America wants a leader, not a politician.” Go to any source and you’ll learn that Obama plays too much golf, shows too little anger, and is far too aloof to be a successful leader.

The criticisms have merit but are, in the end, secondary. If Obama’s policies — in the Gulf and beyond — were demonstrably effective, the same leadership style would be overlooked or reflexively praised. Reclaiming your own narrative — whatever that means — won’t get results; nor will looking like you’re in control or projecting bottomless empathy. Successful policy implementation gets results.

The popular exemplar here is Rudolph Giuliani. Yet national memory has skipped over important mundane details because New York City did, in fact, pull through after it was attacked. “We saw leadership on Sept. 11, 2001,” Romney wrote. “Rudy camped out at Ground Zero — he didn’t hole up in his office or retreat to his residence.” But if that’s all Giuliani did, his 9/11 performance would have gone down as hollow grandstanding. As Michael Powell reported in the New York Times, “There was garbage pickup on Sept. 12. City payroll checks went out on Sept. 13. On the sixth day, the stock exchange opened. Security was omnipresent.”

Speeches aside, had trash piled up on street corners and security been wanting, no one would have called Giuliani “America’s mayor.” Leadership isn’t an impressionistic art form in which symbols are aligned and tones calibrated in a decision-free vacuum. Leadership, rather, is public perception alongside the fact of concrete accomplishment.