AIA board recommending standard deviation to reclassify football

Phoenix Brophy Prep celebrates with the state championship trophy following a last-minute win over Hamilton Class 5A Division I title game, at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.(Photo11: The Republic)

More changes to the Arizona high school football landscape could be coming in March.

After the Arizona Interscholastic Association's Executive Board approved the eight-team Open Division playoff format beginning in the 2019 season (top eight pulled at the end of the regular season from a computer rankings combing 6A, 5A and 4A) to play out for the state championship, the board is seeking approval from the Legislative Council in March to reclassify football teams in 2020, using the standard deviation model.

That model would place the schools in conferences based on enrollment, then move them up or down based on a three-year success rating scale.

No school will be able to move up or down more than one place.

If the model is passed, two-time defending 5A champion Peoria Centennial would move into the top conference, 6A, and Scottsdale Saguaro and Tucson Salpointe Catholic — the top two 4A programs the past two seasons — would move into 5A. Saguaro has won six titles in a row, five of those in 4A. Saguaro beat Salpointe for the 4A title each of the past two seasons.

In the lower levels, the more significant moves would have Yuma Catholic, Phoenix Northwest Christian and American Leadership Academy-Queen Creek moving from 3A to 4A in the 2020 season. Thatcher, the three-time defending 2A champion, would move into 3A.

It gets tricky for Scottsdale Notre Dame, which has a 3A enrollment but could appeal to stay in 5A, where it has gone 28-2 the past two seasons, losing its only game each year to Centennial in the final. Technically, in the new model, Notre Dame would move up one.

Would 4A be enticing enough with Saguaro and Salpointe moving into 5A? Notre Dame's back-to-back titles came in 4A. And the Saints would remain eligible for one of the eight Open slots in 4A. Another title path would appear easier, on the surface, by moving into 4A with still the ability to be among the Elite Eight.

On Tuesday, the board was asked to vote on "40-60" model, but, concerned that there would be too much movement, Executive Board President Herman House broke a 4-4 tie with a no vote.

The football reclassification committee was asked on Wednesday to tweak the standard deviation model. Hines said with the changes made, the board felt satisfied in moving the standard deviation model forward to the council for a March vote.

He said the board's main concern was there would be too much movement from 5A, especially for schools that aren't always making deep playoff runs.

"The committee did a great job of taking a task and looking at all scenarios and they felt like the model that was proposed to the board would be a good starting point," Hines said. "It may take a year or two. Each year, we'll look at the data, and if schools continue to be competitive, they can look to move to another conference."

Hines said schools will be reclassified in football each year, instead of waiting through a two-year scheduling block. That way, the committee can be more flexible with teams as they progress, moving them up or down, based on success or struggles of the programs.

"We have to start somewhere," Hines said. "It may take a little time. We have some unknowns. You’re not going to find the end result the first time out of the gate. Once we get this in place, let’s see what we need to monitor every year."

If this passes, scheduling will be the next difficult task on the conference committees' hands to try to avoid running clocks and 70-7 scores.

To suggest human-interest story ideas and other news, reach Obert at richard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-316-8827. Follow him at twitter.com/azc_obert.