US intel: Russian spies, saboteurs infiltrating Ukraine

posted at 2:41 pm on March 21, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

Think of this as a successful plan … redeployed. After the Euromaidan protests overthrew the Viktor Yanukovich government, Crimea suddenly filled up with military forces without insignias that began seizing buildings, roads, and eventually the entire peninsula. The Daily Beast’s Eli Lake reports that US intel has seen Russian special forces and mercenaries infiltrating eastern Ukraine as well as Crimea, and expect more trouble for Kyiv soon:

Russia’s activities in Crimea have been widely described in the west as an invasion. But while some Russian military forces did cross into Ukrainian territory, the Moscow government still claims that all of its military forces in Crimea are abiding by the terms of its agreement with Ukraine.

This, U.S. officials believe, is because Russia is invading Ukraine with its Spetsnaz — the special operations units and battalions attached to both the military and the country’s intelligence agencies.

U.S. intelligence officials now say Russia’s Spetsnaz are expanding into eastern and southern Ukraine, as well. The intelligence report from February assessed that Russian provocateurs would look to instigate low-level street brawls or “skirmishes” in eastern and southern Ukraine. The report also predicted that Russia’s shadow warriors would seek to pay off Ukrainians to attend pro-Russian rallies and in general fan the flames of separatism. And since then, eyewitnesses say, that’s exactly what’s happened.

One U.S. official said the U.S. military intelligence analysts suspect elements of the 45th Spetsnaz regiment of Russia’s military intelligence service known as the GRU were conducting the provocations in Ukraine.

“This is the use of deniable special operators under GRU control to create provocations and really these are quasi-deniable operations,” added John Schindler, a retired NSA counter-intelligence officer and specialist in Russian affairs who now teaches at the U.S. Naval War College.

The intel community warned in late February of an infiltration strategy being deployed, even if they did send mixed signals on their analysis of Russian intent. That doesn’t mean, though, that Russia will rely only on those forces. Their force build-up on the border is “large, and getting larger,” CBS News reported last night after troop movements within Russia looked as though it would double those forces. Russia claims these are only “exercises,” but gave “no firm timetable” on the exercise’s conclusion (via Freedom’s Lighthouse):

These two developments go hand in hand with each other. The purpose of infiltration and sabotage is to provoke a reaction from the Kyiv government in the heavily ethnic-Russian regions, or failing that, to create as much anarchy and chaos as possible. Russian then would claim the need to restore order and protect the Russian-speaking communities in the east, the same pretext for their intervention and seizure of Crimea. It would not be long before the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions would then declare enough autonomy to hold their own plebescites for independence and absorption into the Russian federation.

Obama administration officials said Thursday that they are not considering arming the Ukrainian military, even as they raised alarms about the deployment of Russian forces along that country’s southern and eastern borders. It amounted to another iteration of a pattern observed in the two-year debate over Syria’s civil war, an emerging “Obama doctrine” in which the only pressure tools contemplated in a crisis are nonlethal aid and economic sanctions.

“Nobody wants the outcome here to be a full-bore military conflict between Ukraine and Russia,” said a senior administration official in a conference call with reporters, although he earlier indicated the president was “deeply concerned by the positioning of Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine.”

That may well be the correct policy to follow. Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and the US has little interest in securing it against Putin by military force — although that certainly runs counter to the spirit of the Budapest Memorandum, if not the letter of the document. However, it’s at least debatable about whether we should proclaim that policy from the White House while Russia builds up its troops on the border. What are the odds that Putin will take that as a green light? I’d say very high indeed.

Actually Akzed, I think the Ukrainians are being smart/realistic…they can’t hold the Crimea & probably can’t hold Eastern Ukraine… just like China couldn’t hold Manchuria in 1931…so they are falling back.

I don’t think they have a plan. First they’d need an army to have a plan, and I ain’t seen no evidence that they have an army, at least one that’s ready to shoot its rifles.

I don’t see anyone in the Ukraine asking for US troops nor do I see a bunch of folks offering them… but you keep burning that straw man. JFKY on March 21, 2014 at 4:23 PM

Oh ok. Then what’s every one up in arms about, wanting the US to do something, or taking it as a sign of weakness that the US can do no more about Crimea than Russian could do about riots in Detroit?

On the one hand you have people like me saying it’s not our business, there’s nothing to be done, and on the other side are people calling us names and bringing up Chamberlain and Hitler. Why?

I think the best investment Putin ever made was in Russia Today. It has allowed him to saturate the United States, Europe, and beyond with propaganda and disinformation. Resist We Much on March 21, 2014 at 4:25 PM

Good thing that was not being done at all before by our own media-govt complex!

Yeah we had nothing but fountains of truth around here before RT, which has about twice of Al Jazeera’s viewership.

Yep, next year RT will have the Super Bowl and the World Series I hear.

You seem to be proudly claiming to be in the Another Libertarian/Federati posse….I don’t need ESP, you proclaimed you’d been stuck even when I didn’t mention you by name… My advice when someone is talking Lew Rockwell and you AREN’T a fan don’t protest…. JFKY on March 21, 2014 at 4:27 PM

Akzed, the people of Kyiv spoke out against the government…. how is that a “Coup?” I’m very impressed with the Lew Rockwell Libertarians and the Slavo-Fascists here JFKY on March 21, 2014 at 4:06 PM

Yeah, he saw how the US used the excuse of ethnic Anglos having their rights trampled by the Mexican govt, and went in took 3/4 of Mexico.

Even if he didn’t, he could have is he’s a must a history buff as you.

Akzed on March 21, 2014 at 4:42 PM

The Mexican-American war is not analogies to what is happening today. We didn’t just invade Mexican territory and claim it for ourselves. We went to war over disputed borders, and the annexation of Texas (which occurred after Texas won its own independence, and sought admission into the Union).

Yeah, he saw how the US used the excuse of ethnic Anglos having their rights trampled by the Mexican govt, and went in took 3/4 of Mexico.

Even if he didn’t, he could have is he’s a must a history buff as you.

Akzed on March 21, 2014 at 4:42 PM

And I don’t give two sh*ts if the Mexican-American War was right or wrong. We are talking about Russia, NOW. You’re like a little school yard baby whining “he did it too!” For your sake, let’s assume the Mexican-American War was wrong.

So… what right does that give Putin to pull the stunts he is pulling and has designs to pull?

… Soviet and Cuban presence on the island and the presence of American medical students at the True Blue Medical Facility.

While the invasion enjoyed broad public support in the United States,[5] and received support from some sectors in Grenada from local groups who viewed the post-coup regime as illegitimate,[6] it was criticized by the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United Nations General Assembly, which condemned it as “a flagrant violation of international law”.

What’s humourous is the rush to defend a state run media organisation emanating from a country that has seen journalists murdered and a free press all but silenced. And, what is the defence? ‘Well, the United States has a ‘media-govt complex’!!!’ True enough, but it also has an alternative media, which is something that cannot be said about Putin’s Russia.

I truly had no idea that the majority of HotAirheads believe the American Revolution was illegitimate, that France and the Dutch were aggressors in helping the rebellion by fighting the UK, and that the US actually belongs to Great Britain.

I truly had no idea that the majority of HotAirheads believe the American Revolution was illegitimate, that France and the Dutch were aggressors in helping the rebellion by fighting the UK, and that the US actually belongs to Great Britain.

Federati on March 21, 2014 at 5:19 PM

I had no idea so many “libertarians” were so ignorant of American history.

Then again, I was genuinely surprised to hear “non-interventionist” libertarians turn out to be big phonies and cheer on and defend a Russian invasion and annexation of a friendly sovereign nation. Shows how much I know!

Federati, they ARE NOT A MAJORITY IN THE UKRAINE…. see how that works, just like the Sudenten Germans weren’t a majority in Czechoslovakia, get it… you can’t use minority support to dismember your neighbors.
Akzed, the people of Kyiv spoke out against the government…. how is that a “Coup?”
I’m very impressed with the Lew Rockwell Libertarians and the Slavo-Fascists here
JFKY on March 21, 2014 at 4:06 PM

If these Paulnuts had their way, they would allow Mexico to annex the United States.

They helped America fight off Britain’s aggression, just as Russians are helping Crimeans fight off Kiev’s – the fact that Crimeans later chose to join Russia doesn’t change anything; it is not like Russia is annexing Crimea against the population’s will, since 93% voted in favor.

They helped America fight off Britain’s aggression, just as Russians are helping Crimeans fight off Kiev’s – the fact that Crimeans later chose to join Russia doesn’t change anything; it is not like Russia is annexing Crimea against the population’s will, since 93% voted in favor.

Federati on March 21, 2014 at 6:20 PM

And Kim Jong Un just got 100% of the vote in the North Korea’s latest election.

I’m wondering, since Tapper reports that the White House wonders if Putin will move to take Ukraine as early as this weekend, how advisable it is for the First Lady of the United States, her daughters and her mother, to be abroad in China at the moment?

China and Russia have been signing onto a ‘new era of cooperation’ and China has recently leased a total of 9% of the arable farm land in Ukraine for the next fifty years, an area equivalent to 5% of the Ukraine. China and Russia have been moving together in their stance on key issues before the UN. China and Russia have been expanding trade together and have been discussing the possibility of leaving the dollar behind as a reserve currency. China has suggested replacing the dollar with the renminbi and have been manipulating their own currency value, keeping it artificially low, ostensibly to boost manufacturing and growth in China.

The presence of the First Lady in China right now signals that the White House has no interest in interceding in Ukraine, or anywhere else Russia may cast its gaze, regardless of Putin’s actions or tactics. Apparently the risk that China might place them under house arrest as leverage against this nation in support of Putin’s position doesn’t bother the White House.

Just like described in Tom Clancy’s fictional book of over one year ago. Somebody in our military intelligence community knew this was coming. He had to have gotten a series of off-the-record briefings.

The Crimean referendum was legit. It was simply held in conditions that were ideal for a landslide. The fascist coup had negated the votes of ethnic Russians who won the last election, and the ruling junta is virulently anti-Russian. So which way were ethnic Russians going to vote?

The Neocons need to calm down about Russia. If they ever start talking about taking back Alaska, we can start to w0orry. Until then, we need take care of more pressing concerns like our $17 trillion debt.

Also, the Crimean referendum and its constitutional consequences enjoys overwhelming legitimacy and popularity in Russia and not only in Crimea. The Russians are no longer thinking pragmatically about this. (Which is not to say that they didn’t think pragmatically earlier.)

I truly had no idea that the majority of HotAirheads believe the American Revolution was illegitimate, that France and the Dutch were aggressors in helping the rebellion by fighting the UK, and that the US actually belongs to Great Britain.

I fear that Obama, because he is so thin skinned, will see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a personal attack on his manhood and will send American troops into combat to defend his pride. And as long as we have such a weak leeder in the White House, it is unfair to send our troops into battle anywhere.

I truly had no idea that the majority of HotAirheads believe the American Revolution was illegitimate, that France and the Dutch were aggressors in helping the rebellion by fighting the UK, and that the US actually belongs to Great Britain.

Federati on March 21, 2014 at 5:19 PM

I’m not gonna get to worked up over the opinion of a person who can’t figure out what Hitler did was wrong.

A minor point….what happens if the Ukrainians’ do something gauche like defend their country?

So far the Ukrainian military hasn’t shown any signs of wanting to fight the Russians which is why the Kiev government had to create a planned 60,000 strong militia from the Maidan protest groups.

I suspect some units would fight if Russia invades, but most would not, or put up only a token resistance. They haven’t been paid in months, their morale is low, half the men are Russian speaking, most of the officers served alongside the Russian officers on friendly terms, maintenance of equipment is pitiful, and they have almost no fuel.

it does get embarrassing if we are forced to actually live p to one of our agreements!!!

JIMV on March 21, 2014 at 10:51 PM

The Budapest Memorandum only calls for the US to go to the UN Security Council if nukes are used, or threatened to be used.

Doesn’t that “knowledge” give him at least a few sleepless seconds every night?

If only FDR had lived long enough to tell Uncle Joe the same thing, surely that would have made a difference, in both Russian and world history. Lucky for us Big Bro O has the nerve to confront Putin with accusation.

Putin isn’t an idiot, unlike the moron in the oval office. Putin actually believes that history has lessons that apply to the present and the future. Progressives believe that history has no lessons to teach us.

So far the Ukrainian military hasn’t shown any signs of wanting to fight the Russians which is why the Kiev government had to create a planned 60,000 strong militia from the Maidan protest groups.

I suspect some units would fight if Russia invades, but most would not, or put up only a token resistance. They haven’t been paid in months, their morale is low, half the men are Russian speaking, most of the officers served alongside the Russian officers on friendly terms, maintenance of equipment is pitiful, and they have almost no fuel.

But all it would take to change everything is one pitched battle…Then what would the regime do? Just what would Lord Halifax Kerry say in that stern letter?

Progressives believe that the lessons of history are that progressives are always right and progressives always win in the long run, while those who disagree are always stupid, crazy, evil and defeated in the long run.

That’s why progressives think that to be on their side is to be on the right side of history, and to disagree is to be on the wrong side of history.

When history shows the opposite of what progressives think is true, it becomes un-history – something to be ignored and forgotten, or if necessary lied about, but never learned from. (In progressive fantasy-land, Stevie Wonder sings forever that “peace has come to Zimbabwe”, and the reality of what happened under Robert Mugabe is uninteresting.)

As history keeps showing progressives are wrong, more history goes down the memory hole, and more countries join the list of states one does not talk about.

That’s why progressives become more and more ignorant of history, even while they dominate the universities, which would be ideal places to promote learning from history, but which unfortunately are ideal places to suppress the truth.

The Paulbots are making Obama and Clinton look better, which really takes some doing.

BushyGreen on March 21, 2014 at 7:37 PM

Precisely why I loathe Ron Paul.

And I assume by “invasion” you mean helping 93%+ of a certain population choose their destiny and exercise their right to self-determination?

Federati on March 21, 2014 at 5:37 PM

…Just fantasizing about bumping into you on the street and helping your wallet and wristwatch exercise their right to self determination in my pocket. Then again, anyone who actually believes the crude putinist propaganda has probably already been fleeced.

But, since I didn’t name any names in my post about RT, it is interesting that you felt the need to jump to its defence. Says quite a lot. Resist We Much on March 21, 2014 at 5:07 PM

If my post constitutes a defense of RT, please parse it and show us why. Don’t bother, you can’t. You implied that RT is somehow different than our virtuous state-run news media, which is one of the funniest things I’ve seen in weeks.

I think the best investment Putin ever made was in Russia Today. It has allowed him to saturate the United States, Europe, and beyond with propaganda and disinformation. Resist We Much on March 21, 2014 at 4:25 PM

I have never watched RT on my TV, I have only seen clips on blogs and YouTube occasionally, and have not seen anything by RT on the Crimean affair. I didn’t say anything about the names of any of their reporters etc, so I have no idea what you mean by mentioning their names. Pop a Midol.

Do you think anyone would be willing to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine? sharrukin on March 22, 2014 at 12:21 AM

No, not even Ukrainians!

If 0b00ba gave Putin carte blanche and declared that the US military would not be called on to defend say, Florida, from an invasion by Russia, should it occur do you honestly think that there wouldn’t be an American with a rifle behind each blade of saw grass in the Sunshine State?

By now Ukraine should be bleeding profusely the blood of patriots, yet there is little to no bleeding by either patriots or Russians. Yet the neocons of HA are rattling their little plastic sabres as if the lack of American blood on that peninsula is somehow evidence of lack of American resolve.

I’m glad a coward like 0b00ba is POTUS rather than a war weasel like Bill Kristol. The other option is an American who understands the constitutional function of government – resolve in the interest of the US, not in the interest of puny doormat nations who refuse to act in their own interest. Dear God please send a Gideon!

Do you think anyone would be willing to go to war with Russia over the Ukraine?

sharrukin on March 22, 2014 at 12:21 AM

I believe we should do about anything needed short of direct engagement with the Russians. Combat brigades to Poland and The Baltic states. Serious military aid to the Ukraine. Submarines t the Black Sea. Economic aid to Ukraine.

So far the strategy of stern letters and hot air has been completely ineffective.

By now Ukraine should be bleeding profusely the blood of patriots, yet there is little to no bleeding by either patriots or Russians.

Most Ukrainians don’t want any part in any conflict with Russia. The far west of the Ukraine is the most belligerent and even they don’t have much appetite for war.

Yet the neocons of HA are rattling their little plastic sabres as if the lack of American blood on that peninsula is somehow evidence of lack of American resolve.

Akzed on March 22, 2014 at 12:51 AM

I think they want a simpler conflict than a terrorist war that may be unwinnable without conducting ourselves like Genghis Khan, and a government in Washington DC that is more communist than the one in Moscow. The press and many of the elites are on board with a new cold war as well for their own reasons.

The United States Government has nuclear weapons and an armed populace to protect itself. There is zero danger from anything that could possibly happen in the rest of the world, and the last 10 years have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt. The only danger here is that the control freak nutjobs in charge will shatter the Union with their stupidity. Or start a nuclear war.

The government of Israel has at least 200-300 nuclear weapons, and its supposed enemies have zero. There is absolutely no danger to Israel, and there never will be.

The cowardly sound of the Republican Neo-Progressive wing’s knee-knocking is so loud it is drowning out all reason.

True conservatives should set about taking over the Republican party, or work for its defeat. This warmongering is is old and busted.

People who wet their pants every time something happens somewhere on the globe do not deserve power. They are cowardly bullies who must be driven from that power before they do more harm.

People who are aggressive morons that want to send American Soldiers to die for no reason other than the aggrandizement of the anti-capitalist parasite class should not have their finger on the button.

Cronyism is not a good reason to start wars.

Preserving a system that has destroyed the Middle Class is not a reason to start wars.

And the Neo Cons and their supporters are still a bunch of crazy conspiracy kooks.

The United States Government has nuclear weapons and an armed populace to protect itself. There is zero danger from anything that could possibly happen in the rest of the world, and the last 10 years have proven that beyond a shadow of a doubt. The only danger here is that the control freak nutjobs in charge will shatter the Union with their stupidity. Or start a nuclear war.

The government of Israel has at least 200-300 nuclear weapons, and its supposed enemies have zero. There is absolutely no danger to Israel, and there never will be.

The cowardly sound of the Republican Neo-Progressive wing’s knee-knocking is so loud it is drowning out all reason.

True conservatives should set about taking over the Republican party, or work for its defeat. This warmongering is is old and busted.

Another Libertarian on March 22, 2014 at 2:19 AM

Zero danger? You really believe nothing past the east or west coast could damage this country?

The USA ought to be flooding the Ukraine with leftover or weapon cache’s captured in Iraq……..basically give them the 2nd Amend even the Big L Paulites wouldn’t be against that—would they?
****
Put a gun behind every blade of grass all thru the Ukraine for Putin to think about…..its held our Commie Left at bay for a few extra years

If my post constitutes a defense of RT, please parse it and show us why. Don’t bother, you can’t. You implied that RT is somehow different than our virtuous state-run news media, which is one of the funniest things I’ve seen in weeks.

Akzed on March 22, 2014 at 12:42 AM

Assumes facts not in evidence. If you, somehow, read into my post an implication that I believe the MSM in this country is virtuous, you’ve erred badly.

What is one to expect? Russia has always had expansionist desires and an incredibly weak American president just opens the doors. Some nations may never recover from the damage of this democrat president. Disgusting, awful. And Russian prisons are nothing like ours. Remember Siberia, anyone?

Additionally, you certainly defended RT’s audience size as compared to that of Al Jazeera.

Whoa! You said RT was saturating the airwaves, I said their viewership is miniscule. You’re apparently a PR flak for them or why else would you exaggerate their effectiveness?

No one else, not even Sharry, responded to my post about RT, but you did and, interestingly, you sound exactly like those on the network whether they be presenters or guests.Resist We Much on March 22, 2014 at 11:58 AM

According to reports out of Kiev (see links below), the US has quietly transfers 33 tons of Ukrainian gold out of the country and back to vaults in the US. Presumably, this sovereign wealth transfer would be counted as partial “collateral” for a fresh round of IMF, US FED, and ECB paper debt that is currently being organised for dumping into the Ukraine’s economic black hole.

Multiple inquiries to US Federal Reserve administrators into the location of the Ukraine’s gold have been met with the proverbial ‘pass the buck’, making tracking and tracking the final resting place of these 33 tonnes very difficult indeed – but one can expect that the NY Fed is probably the institution who has masterminded this financial heist.

Note how gold flows into New York, but has difficulty flowing out of US private banking hands as is the case with the ‘confiscation’ of Germany’s gold. Numerous attempts by Bundesbank to repatriate its gold reserves have been met with a brick wall, and to date, Germany has only recovered a miniscule 5 tonnes directly from the NY Fed – out of the total 674 tonnes (an additional 32 tonnes were recovered via French central bank).

Venice voted by 89% to become independent of Italy, for essentially financial reasons, so why do people deny the reality in Crimea? You can get these big results when people are motivated, and losing one’s democracy to a violent coup creates fear, and fear is a strong motivation.

Crimean people voted by an even bigger margin than in Venice to go out of Ukraine, when there is real fear because the junta is anti-Russian.

This is not a fraudulent, forced vote under the gun and under the pressure of an invasion. This was an authentic act of people who were in fear choosing to separate themselves from a violent, undemocratic junta that dislikes their nationality, and choosing to unite with their own ethnic nationality, which is Russian. That’s natural behavior from people seeing safety – one bands together with people of the same nationality.