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I was just thinking a while back, "I love Freddie, but he's going to win an undeserved MVP some day." I didn't figure it would be this year. I don't think it will be, but Freddie's going to get some votes.

...Defensively, teammates will tell you he saves numerous errors with his stretches, both horizontal – seriously, how does he do the splits so often without hurting himself? – and vertical, reaching up with his considerable wingspan (he’s 6-foot-5).

Its where the most compelling stories are. The East has the Braves who win it a lot, and have kinda boring players, and there hasn't been much of a race. The rest of the division is mediocre (Nats) or disappointing (Phils) or awful (Marlins and Mets). The Central has the compelling storylines, the best race, and the most exciting players.

If the NL East had any legitimate MVP candidates, they'd be on the list.

How, exactly, are we determining "MVP candidates?" Are we mind-melding with potential voters? If so, are we discounting Arizona and San Francisco for not winning? (MVP's are from winning teams.) Or are we being all SABR-tastic? Because if we are, why are Goldschmidt(5.9 bWAR), Votto(5.5), Carpenter(5.2), Molina(4.9), Posey (4.9) magically MVP candidates while David Wright(5.6) and Andrelton Simmons(5.5) (just to name two guys from the non-existing NL East) not? By WAR the only guys head and shoulders above anyone else are McCutchen and Kershaw. Maybe Carlos Gomez. (Freeman's 3.3 doesn't really get him into the conversation on WAR, obviously, but Simmons and Wright certainly have arguments if that's how you're playing this game.)

I suspect, I admit, that you're merely playing the "because I don't like the NL East" game and rationalizing post hoc from that fact.

He is the most amazing receiver I've ever seen at first. Does the splits all the time, and never - really, never - misses a catch. I understand 1st base defense is limited in value, but having Andrelton Simmons throwing and Freeman on the other end means you are out on anything remotely near SS. No MVP in my book either, but he's uniquely suited to help the Braves right now, and is a very soulful character to boot.

Are you kidding? If Cincinnati were to come back and win the NL Central, I assume Phillips would either win or come close to it. He's gotten the hero edit all year, with the RBIs (just like Votto has gotten the villain edit for his perceived lack of run production).

I don't think either will end up winning, but I'd bet a donut that Phillips finishes ahead of Votto.

Really? You are going to get touchy because some guy's prediction of MVP voting didn't include guys from the division in which your team plays?

No. I didn't say that. Read better.

I am having a conversation with regular posters to this site about why they think the NL East has no legitimate MVP candidates while listing players with lower WARs who play for worse teams as actual "MVP candidates." I want to know why anyone would put Buster Posey's 4.9 WAR for the 61-76 Giants ahead of David Wright's 5.6 WAR for the 62-74 Mets.

There's also the frankly absurd notion that three or four Cardinals deserve MVP consideration as they scrape for a wild card slot. Allen Craig's 2.8 WAR (his defense at 1B is atrocious by the metrics) gets an MVP vote while a clearly superior player (Freeman) gets ridiculed for so much as being mentioned? And no one seems to understand what Andrelton Simmons is doing this year, at all.

You kind of lost some credibility by including Gattis. Everyone loves a homer (as in, a guy who loves the home team), but Gattis has turned out to be barely above replacement after a hot start (and wasn't he just sent to AAA?).

And honestly, aside from Kimbrel (in his limited role) and Simmons, there's not an exciting player in the bunch there. Simmons in the field, though... yowza. I loves me some flashy middle infielders.

(Nothing wrong with that, of course - I'd rather have a team of boring players crushing the rest of the division than a team of exciting players that's going home at the end of the season.)

Why is Goldschmidt at the top of that list? McCutchen has clearly outperformed him *this season.* As has Kershaw, but I can see the "starters don't get MVP votes" argument. Not sure how Matt Carpenter's actual season (5.5 WAR) moves him into McCutchen's realm (7.0 WAR) either.

I am having a conversation with regular posters to this site about why they think the NL East has no legitimate MVP candidates while listing players with lower WARs who play for worse teams as actual "MVP candidates." I want to know why anyone would put Buster Posey's 4.9 WAR for the 61-76 Giants ahead of David Wright's 5.6 WAR for the 62-74 Mets.

Maybe you should read better. His post was predicting what the actual voting results will be, not what they should be. Do you think the actual voters are going to put David Wright and his 115~ games on a bad team in the top 10? If not, why even bring him up?

And no one seems to understand what Andrelton Simmons is doing this year, at all.

Simmons has been fabulous in the field, but Ozzie Smith wasn't winning any MVPs either - the one year he got close was the only year he hit .300+. The rest of the time, he was a downballot guy or got no votes at all.

You can't hit .250 with marginal power and no speed on the bases and expect to be the MVP, even if your glove was handed down from the mountaintop.

Also, if you don't think Julio Teheran is "exciting" you haven't seen him pitch. He's exciting.

I've seen plenty of his pitching, and he's having a good year. But he's exciting in the way that all good young starters are exciting - lively arm, and you hope they can keep it up without getting injured. I can't say that he particularly sticks out from the crowd.

Say what you will about Gattis, he is not a "boring player."

I assumed when we were talking about "exciting", we meant it in a good way. Throwing yourself in front of a train, then narrowly avoiding getting hit by it, is exciting too, though I wouldn't recommend it.

Do you think the actual voters are going to put David Wright and his 115~ games on a bad team in the top 10? If not, why even bring him up?

Because he mentioned Buster Posey and his 129 games with an even worse team on his list of MVP candidates. No, I don't think Wright will or should get much MVP consideration, but I also think it's silly to list Posey as well.

Obviously Evan Gattis is only exciting to fans who know something about him, which I don't think includes you.

To be fair, Gattis is living off of his debut. He's been horrific in the second half and was rightly demoted after going 0-19. He's lost power, flies out to the warning track or singles in "good" at bats and is simply overmatched with high heat in bad ones. The semantics of "exciting" aside, Evan Gattis earned his demotion and probably should have been sent down a couple of weeks earlier than he actually was.

Because he mentioned Buster Posey and his 129 games with an even worse team on his list of MVP candidates. No, I don't think Wright will or should get much MVP consideration, but I also think it's silly to list Posey as well.

Because he mentioned Buster Posey and his 129 games with an even worse team on his list of MVP candidates. No, I don't think Wright will or should get much MVP consideration, but I also think it's silly to list Posey as well.

Is Posey hurt? Is he going to end the season with 129 games played? The voters aren't voting now.

So? The fact that he's a catcher means he's not playing 150 games, which is why his WAR is less than Wright's. There's absolutely no rational reason to promote Buster Posey as an MVP candidate while ignoring David Wright. Wright has contributed more WAR to his (very bad) team's winning than Posey has contributed to his (slightly worse) team's winning. Allen Craig shouldn't even be in the damned conversation. (Again, Freddie Freeman is a better MVP candidate than Allen Craig.)

Simmons is an exciting player and the one that I can see getting some support, although most writers aren't going to appreciate his defense as much as they should. Freeman and Upton are boringly good, yes. Gattis, Tehran and Kimbrel aren't top ten MVP candidates by any stretch.

I want to stress, that's not my top ten list, or who I think should be in the top ten, that's who I think the BBWAA will have in their top ten. And I don't see any NL East guys as sure things to be in the top ten.

You could probably swap Posey and Wright on my list - they're interchangeable. I wouldn't get that worked up about it. I put Posey because he's a former MVP and a bigger national superstar than Wright, and plays a tougher position so I think he'll get more votes.

I want to stress, that's not my top ten list, or who I think should be in the top ten, that's who I think the BBWAA will have in their top ten. And I don't see any NL East guys as sure things to be in the top ten.

So you think they're going to ignore "players on a winning team" in order to vote for Posey while also voting four Cardinals in just for fun?

Not quite. I think they're not going to vote for any Braves in the top ten, vote for Posey (or Wright), while also voting for three Cardinals. The Braves are hurt by having a lot of good players, but no one having a awesome season.

EDIT: So I was poking around and at least the last 6 years, no playoff team has ever not had a player in the top ten of MVP voting. But several have had just one player in the tenth spot (2012 A's - Cespedes for example). So let's say Upton or Freeman in the tenth spot, and maybe that will make everyone happy and dispel notions of my anti-NL East bias.

So? The fact that he's a catcher means he's not playing 150 games, which is why his WAR is less than Wright's. There's absolutely no rational reason to promote Buster Posey as an MVP candidate while ignoring David Wright. Wright has contributed more WAR to his (very bad) team's winning than Posey has contributed to his (slightly worse) team's winning. Allen Craig shouldn't even be in the damned conversation. (Again, Freddie Freeman is a better MVP candidate than Allen Craig.)

Do you predict that Wright will finish better than Craig and Posey in the voting?

Do you predict that Wright will finish better than Craig and Posey in the voting?

Don't know. Don't really care. MVPs are essentially stupid things voted on by generally stupid people. I know that David Wright has been more valuable than Buster Posey in 2013, that there's no "but Buster was on a winning team" caveat to play, and that any vote for Posey over Wright is so much fanboy crap as anything else. I know that there's no way on planet earth that three Cardinals have been more "valuable" to their 2013 team than any single Brave.

I'm not in the business of guesstimating the behavior of sportswriters. I do occasionally make a point of calling out bad logic on this web site. Freddie Freeman is a better choice for MVP than Allen Craig. David Wright is a better choice for MVP than Buster Posey (at least to date.) At this point it would be basically a travesty for anyone to win the actual award than Andrew McCutchen.

I HOPE McCutchen wins
I don't see Votto getting in the top 10 this year, I don't see him beating out Craig or Freeman
I don't see Posey top 10 either

Puig will get votes, but given his playing time deficit it's had to see where he'll go overall
Goldschmidt and Ariz peaked too early, I could see him dropping a bit, but assuming he wins the ribbie crown he'll still be top 10...

Because he mentioned Buster Posey and his 129 games with an even worse team on his list of MVP candidates. No, I don't think Wright will or should get much MVP consideration, but I also think it's silly to list Posey as well.

"He" in this instance refers to RoyalsRetro, who appears to be the only person in this thread who thinks Posey will finish in the Top Ten. Several others - myself included - dismissed the idea of Posey in the Top Ten. David Wright, though, probably has even less chance than Posey.

Evan Gattis earned his demotion and probably should have been sent down a couple of weeks earlier than he actually was.

I'd argue that his oblique injury came at a very unfortunate time - some of the other guys started coming around, and Gattis' effectiveness seemed to decline along with his getting regular PT. Not a direct causation in all likelihood, but it didn't help that he never got to start a few games in a row to get some rhythm back.

Gattis, Tehran and Kimbrel aren't top ten MVP candidates by any stretch.

Kimbrel has an ERA under 1.00 and leads the league in saves, he finished 8th last year in MVP voting (Chapman finished 12th)
Axford was 17th in 2011
R. Soriano was 12th and The Beard 13th in 2010

Closers with ERAs under 2.00 and saves north of 40 who play on 1st place teams tend to get MVP votes (not saying they are deserved)-
If Kimbrel finishes under 1.00 and leads the league in saves- I'd be shocked if he doesn't finish top 10

I do occasionally make a point of calling out bad logic on this web site.

I think the logic predicting that the actual voters will give more votes to Posey than Wright is sound. If you don't disagree than you are just arguing against a statement that was never made - all in a weird attempt to protect the honor of the NL East.

Perhaps not MVP but CJ leading the league in batting avg is a pretty awesome season.

There's also Kimbrel. Unless you're the kind of guy who says that relievers by definition can't have awesome seasons, then the only possible grounds to disqualify Kimbrel is that his 2013 season is merely run-of-the-mill for him.

Freeman and Joey Votto are tied for the major league lead with five each. Freeman's also started two 3-6 DPs, which is tied for fifth in the bigs (the four leaders all have three). Baseball-Reference lists only those three kinds of DP started by 1B, and Freeman has the most (James Loney is second with 11).

Before this season, he had only two 3-6-1s, but he did have four 3-6s.

Interesting to see people in here poo-poohing both Freeman and Craig, while just a couple threads up is Joe Posnanski, arguing through RE24, that they've been two of the top three most valuable hitters in the NL this year. Both should be, to some extent, in MVP consideration because of clutch hitting*.

* [Standard disclaimer stating that just because something is not a skill does not mean that it does not have value.]

Are you kidding? If Cincinnati were to come back and win the NL Central, I assume Phillips would either win or come close to it. He's gotten the hero edit all year, with the RBIs (just like Votto has gotten the villain edit for his perceived lack of run production).

I don't think either will end up winning, but I'd bet a donut that Phillips finishes ahead of Votto.

I don't think Repoz links and actual coverage are quite the same thing. I don't see anything beyond the trollish thoughts of Paul Daugherty that suggests the rest of the NL is attributing magical qualities to Brandon Phillips. I think they'll see him for what he is - an excellent defensive second baseman with a meh bat - compared to the guy to his left who is now the NL's best hitter.

But I'll go you one better than a doughnut. BBRef bet on who finishes higher - BP or Votto.

WAR doesn't really work for catchers--you can't really compare them between other positions unless you take the view that catchers have been overvalued until WAR came into being

Isn't that the entire point of WAR? Isn't the whole idea behind advanced metrics to say "wow, look at these things that we have always believed to be true, but which a rigorous analysis of the facts don't support at all?" If your approach to WAR is "I'll take it seriously when it confirms my existing beliefs, but ignore it completely if it makes me have to reconsider something I assume to be already true" then there's really no point in advanced metrics at all.

Isn't that the entire point of WAR? Isn't the whole idea behind advanced metrics to say "wow, look at these things that we have always believed to be true, but which a rigorous analysis of the facts don't support at all?" If your approach to WAR is "I'll take it seriously when it confirms my existing beliefs, but ignore it completely if it makes me have to reconsider something I assume to be already true" then there's really no point in advanced metrics at all.

I don't know what you're trying to say here.

I'm saying that WAR is not accurately accounting for all of the defense that catchers provide. This leads catchers to be improperly valued.

Do you think that Jeff Bagwell had a better career than Johnny Bench? Do you think that Gary Sheffield and Todd Helton were better than Yogi Berra?

If the ceiling for a C is something like 130 games, then it seems to me that you're going to need to play a backup 30-40 times a year anyway.

So doesn't that suggest that catchers are in fact not as valuable as Todd Helton? Which means that you'd rather focus your resources on other positions and punt catcher - unless you can pick up a really good catcher.

#65 First of all, the two players you're talking about are easily within method error (by WAR) so your example players aren't great choices.

But to respond to your general point, the demands of the position place a cap on how much value a catcher can accumulate both in season and over the course of the career.

So the way I see it yeah it's certainly plausible that you'd be better off with Bagwell's entire career plus a replacement level catcher than you would with Bench's entire career plus a replacement level first-baseman.

But the difference comes in their time as non-elite players. Really it's an extra year of an OBP heavy 113 OPS+ from a 1B.

I think there's something to the "WAR doesn't capture catcher's defensive properly" argument - but that's not a criticism of WAR, it's a criticism of the inputs. If you regard that as a problem, just mentally tweak the numbers a bit to account for pitch calling and whatnot. As for the PT argument, I'm 95% with Ray's #67, etc...

I think there's something to the "WAR doesn't capture catcher's defensive properly" argument - but that's not a criticism of WAR, it's a criticism of the inputs. If you regard that as a problem, just mentally tweak the numbers a bit to account for pitch calling and whatnot. As for the PT argument, I'm 95% with Ray's #67, etc...

I tend to think that catcher defense is going to be really difficult to capture in a WAR-like system. I think catching is the most demanding and most important of defensive positions. But I also think there's a smaller performance band between those who play the position at the big league level. That there's a high barrier to entry for the position, but once you establish your defensive bona fides for the position, there's not as much distinguishing the best from the worst as there is at short or center.

I've felt that way before, SoSH, but am less sure about that than I once was (again, see pitch calling research). Maybe there's an analogy b/w catcher defense and pitcher's ability to get out on balls in play (the starter/reliever divide aside)?

It seems easier to pick up a good-fielding C than a good-hitting C -- provided you can identify the good-fielding ones. If Mike Fast's work on framing has held up (has it?), is this something you can identify at the lower levels without the tools that are available at the major league level?

doesn't that suggest that catchers are in fact not as valuable as Todd Helton? Which means that you'd rather focus your resources on other positions and punt catcher - unless you can pick up a really good catcher

It seems to me a lot of good teams have done that over the years. Sure, if you have Johnny Bench, you go mostly with Johnny Bench. But very often a really strong team will have the equivalent of a couple of backup catchers sharing the position, whether as a platoon or in some other work rota. It's not so much punting as deciding that there's a decent supply of spare parts at the position and a severe lack of durable quality goods.

Earl Weaver's Orioles are a notable example. Rick Dempsey ultimately emerged as a regular for them late in Weaver's tenure, but that took a while, and even then it wasn't like Dempsey was the second coming of Randy Hundley or anything.

You kind of lost some credibility by including Gattis. Everyone loves a homer (as in, a guy who loves the home team), but Gattis has turned out to be barely above replacement after a hot start (and wasn't he just sent to AAA?).

It turns out that gattis' season statistics are not dissimilar from puig's, other than BA. Same number of games played, HR, etc.

It turns out that gattis' season statistics are not dissimilar from puig's, other than BA. Same number of games played, HR, etc.

I guess you don't see puig as exciting either. Word.

- But apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, the fresh-water system, and public health, what have the Romans ever done for us?
- Played exciting defense?
- Shut up!