Household Survey Data In February, the unemployment rate held at 4.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 7.8 million, was unchanged. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 0.6 percentage point and 831,000, respectively.

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.2 million in February and has shown little movement since June. In February, these individuals accounted for 27.7 percent of the unemployed.

The employment-population ratio edged up to 59.8 percent over the month, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.9 percent. Both measures have increased by 0.5 percentage point since September.

These numbers always get people riled up because they figure there is always something wrong with the data because it doesn’t seem to square with experience.

One of the areas I find totally interesting is the self-employed category.

This month the figure is 8.606 million.

Once upon a time, there was no such thing in the unemployment data. But if you look back just five years ago (the data is here), you will see the number of self employed was being estimated at about the same level: 8.573 million.

Looking back further, we see that the self-employed in 2006 was estimates at 9.576 million.

These kinds of changes in the data leave me scratching my head: The 2006 data claimed unemployment of 4.8 % (sort of like this morning) but there were about a million more people who were self-employed in 2006. That doesn’t square with my personal experience with folks, but that’s maybe because I live in something of a data-void.

Nevertheless, if in the past 10 years, the number of self-employed has indeed declined by a million, it shouldn’t be too long here before the once-hot SOHO market completely implodes. Or, so the longer term view of data has us wondering.

But let me lay it out so you see the data relationship I find so interesting:

2006 the unemployment was claimed at 4.8% and selfies were 9.576 million.

2011 the unemployment was set at 8.9% while the selfies were 8.573 million.

And last month,unemployed was 4.9% while selfies were 8.50 million.

And today we have 4,9% unemployment with selfies at 8.606 million.

I don’t know why that is so interesting, but something just doesn’t feel right about this.. Can’t put my finger on it, but the futures are up and Ure’s predict blow-off top seems to be gathering a head of steam it prolly doesn’t matter. Still, we’ll keep an eye on it from time to time and see how it works out.

Futures are up 50’ish if it matters…

“I was Embarrassed”

TGIO (Thank God It’s Over)…

I walked over the house to reload the coffee a few minutes ago and Elaine was in fine form.

She was appalled by the utter stupidity of the latest debate which she had a who string of descriptive phrases for.

But I had the good sense to snooze out in my lounger and sleep well past the packaged idiocy being put out of its misery by the clock.

Meantime, I’m sick of the whole mess and look forward to March 22 because that will be the day after this rank stupidity has come to an end.

A buddy of mine (not in Texas) will be coming out with his Vlad Putin for President stickers shortly. A nice counterpoint to our own “One Clinton was Too Many” which are in design now.

Back to point, you do know that Mitt Romney was at a big venture group and that group made a lot of money in consumerism, not in core industry, right? OF COURSE he would attack Trump on bringing back manufacturing to the USA. What we want to know is how much of Mitt’s millions were made job-jacking (if any)?

It has been floating around the ‘net ever since 2014 that the Neocons would ally with Hillary Clinton, and thus reveal themselves to be what people like me have been saying for a long time: Neocons are pro-war, non-republicans, who are only interested in their own sick little agenda.

There was an old game for the Mac back in 1990’s, or so, called Balance of Power.

Someone should buy Shinzo Abe a copy.

Off point completely, but the developer of Balance of Power was Chris Crawford, who accounting to Wikipedia “In 1992 Crawford withdrew from commercial game development and began experimenting with ideas for a next generation interactive storytelling system.”

I can hardly wait to see what he comes up with. Totally unconventional thinking is something we admire and put on a pedestal here.

And from our military affairs expert, warhammer:

A cheerful Friday to you, George,

Bloomberg does a decent job outlining the perceived Chinese plan to become a peer military competitor to the U.S. of A.

Such thinking is not new by any means. Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger reached out to China in the 70s in anticipation of the Dragon’s growing clout in the Far East in global economy. In the mid-90s, the USAF spent a lot of time and resources on their 2025 study, which in part outlined how China was positioned to become America’s biggest strategic nemesis by the projected year of the study’s title.

The U.S. may not have the economy nor the gumption to continue serving as a global police force. Yet China needs some serious but friendly opposition. The global impact? Europe, Israel and a few of the more rational Middle Eastern Arabic countries will likely be responsible for realizing peace in their currently messy region, which right now means containing and then defeating ISIS. Without a strong U.S. Middle Eastern presence, Russia will dominate the region. Iran will ultimately grow into a regional super power while Israel must either develop formal relations with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt or face prolonged isolation, which will result in a Fortress Israel approach.

China will need serious but sensible guidance and firm opposition as they regionally expand their influence. Initially, this may involve American military presence to drive home the point that a Chinese policy of hegemony is not an option. Japan’s military will be forces to continue its expansion in a regionally non-threatening way. Taiwan will inevitably be subsumed by their overpowering mainland cousins if the U.S. does not continue to back them with steely eyed resolve, financial aid and continuous military patronage.

What does this mean for the everyday American? Expect yearly rises in defense budgets and the accelerated development and funding of advanced strategic weaponry – to include a sizable air, land, sea (surface and subsurface) and space based drone force.

The subtext of the Bloomberg is the historic financial impact of the Dragon Rising scenario. Western defense stocks and military commodities are a sound investment for the long haul. Corporate investment in China may embrace some increasingly serious risk. The next American Commander and the U.S. Congress will jointly decide the measure of America’s ‘carrot and stick’ approach – just how much funding goes toward militarily caging-in the Chinese Dragon and how much ends up in corporate venture. This diplomatic challenge has all the makings of a classic Vegas poker game.

Comments

Jobs Data and Republican Idiots — 16 Comments

“In the mid-90s, the USAF spent a lot of time and resources on their 2025 study, which in part outlined how China was positioned to become America’s biggest strategic nemesis by the projected year of the study’s title.” I don’t buy it. When Nixon went to China, China had a teeny tiny economy compared to the US. The opening of free trade with China has given them the economic power to make that 2025 prediction come true. If the military was predicting this as a danger then why would the politicians dropped the trade barriers to make it happen? Traitors everywhere?

This is why they don’t want Trump. The powers that be are just looting the country.

What Trump will really do no one knows but I would bet a great deal, if I had it, that he will at least try to increase the average Americans prosperity and keep us out of endless wars. That’s good enough for me.

I had thought the percentages george has been telling us for a long time were all false.. today I added up the receipts for groceries what I expected was to see a thirty percent increase.. instead I seen a 5 percent increase.. and what george has been telling us was a three to four percent.. he was on the money.. I doubted him.. I owe you a sincere appology for thinking that you had just soaked up some of that smoke they were blowing at you..
I am not sure but am now thinking that there were just a few items that must have had the huge increases.. that I purchase regularly.. I usually budget the cost of a happy meal per person per day for food.. and it keeps pretty close.. I only have to add a dollar on to that figure for this years budget..

He’s not a politician.. I think he would embarass congress to go back to work and shut down that dry spell of endless vacations and recesses or data finding missions etc.. shoot they haven’t done a thing in my opinion since 1998 its about time they started to work for us..
the other reason is he has five billion reasons to make our economy strong again.. instead of letting us continue down the rabbit hole where his pile of paper would only be worth a few hundred loaves of bread.. it would maintain its present value if he is successful..
this is where I think we are heading if someone doesn’t turn it around.. http://www.newsweek.com/zimbabwes-10-million-bread-84167

Well, Mr. Ure, you are not alone in your estimation of the upcoming recession/ depression. Maybe Rogers has been reading this site?

“Rogers Holdings Chairman Jim Rogers is certain that the U.S. economy will be in recession in the next 12 months.’If you look at the…payroll tax figures [in the U.S.], you see they’re already flat,” he concluded. Don’t pay attention to the government numbers, pay attention to the real numbers.'”

You seem surprised at self employment numbers. There are 1.2 million Realtors nationwide…We are all 1099’d and self employed. That’s just one industry..In the United States, any person is considered self-employed for tax purposes if that person is running a business as a sole proprietorship, independent contractor, as a member of a partnership, or as a member of a limited liability company that does not elect to be treated as a corporation. That can cover hundreds of SIC’s. Personally, I think the self employment number is low.

Related to Warhammer’s comment–
So the US elites send manufacturing to China.
The Chinese make stuff, we buy.
Then some of US taxpayers (leftover) money goes to China.
They use it to bump up their military.
Then the Pentagon needs MORE US taxpayer money to counter the Chinese military rise.
Endless circle where a few get richer and richer and i (we) get poorer.
Crazy world.

Interesting thoughts by warhammer, and if those things come to pass it would without a doubt be a good thing, for the world needs two or three strong powers to counteract our endless meddling in the affairs of other nations, our endless wars that only benefits the few at the expense of not only the many but the country itself, and trust me they need no excuse to raise the military budget for they are already looking at the billions upon billions for the six and seventh generation aircraft while we are drowning in red ink.@@@

There’s really nothing surprising about the actions of the Japanese Prime Minister – He has an important election coming up and Okinawa Prefecture is an important part of Japan proper. He’s appealing to the voters in that area; they think (and more importantly believe) that they are not in control of their own land – and have to ‘put up’ with a foreign power. (He’ll change his mind again after their election – much like a certain current ‘darling’ of the Republican party – flip-flopping is not just an American trait.)

You mentiond slopeofhope – you can watch Tim Knight’s daily rundown at the end of day at 3:15 Eastern on tastytrade.com or via recorded shows. I think he is basically a permabear but a really good chartist.