Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

Saturday, September 14, 2019

The consensus view is that the market seeks a resolution to Brexit uncertainty of when or even if the UK would leave the EU. Which given current extreme chaos would suggest that the British Pound should be an death spiral of sorts.

Monday, September 09, 2019

Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the weekly chart. It should see some further upside before any larger size pullbacks relative to the longer term cycles.

Saturday, August 31, 2019

An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Back during the bear market years (it’s nice to be able to write that now), I regularly would compare the declines in Gold, Silver and gold stocks to their past history. It gave us a visual representation of just how bad the forever bear market was and helped us decipher when it might end.

Sunday, August 25, 2019

The coupling of currencies from two countries to exchange or trade against each other is known as currency pairs in forex trading. There are exchange rates from both currencies on which the position basis of the trade are established. Currency pairs are undoubtedly an integral component when you mention forex trading, understanding it’s basics is so vital since every form of buying and selling is achieved through currency pairs.

Thursday, August 22, 2019

It’s often like this prior to market-moving events. Prices keep trading in a narrow consolidation, dropping subtle clues here and there. The context remains though, and coupled with the preceding price action, it allows to us to see the market tipping its hand. So, how have we prepared for what’s to come?

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Colombia’s peso is in trouble, again. Against the U.S. dollar, the peso has shed 20% of its value in a little more than a year and 7% in the last month. Like most Latin American currencies, the Colombian peso bobs up and down like a yo-yo, but its long-term trend is one of weakness. Indeed, since August 2014, the peso has lost 45% of its value against the greenback. Talk about a theft! The chart below tells the peso’s most recent tale.

Thursday, August 15, 2019

On July 16th Sterling hit its 2019 low of $1.24 against the US Dollar. It wasn’t the biggest surprise, as GBP has been bouncing around the $1.25-$1.26 mark for most of July, and, indeed, sits around that mark at the time of writing one week later.

The drop in Sterling’s value prompted a bit of a reaction on social media, which soon snowballed into hysteria and misinformation. The latter came from a widely shared story on Twitter, which claimed that GBP had reached its lowest rate against USD since 1985. That was, in fact, incorrect, as the Pound was buying $1.22 in January 2017. Read full article... Read full article...

Thursday, August 15, 2019

A financial market is a market where derivatives at low transaction costs, commodities, foreign exchange and financial securities (bonds, precious metals and stocks) are traded by people. In elementary terms, they can be described as markets where investors make money, companies reduce risks and businesses approach to raise funds for growth. Bonds and currency trading are done mainly on bilateral basis even though some trade on a stock exchange, also recently electronic systems are being built for stock exchange purposes.

Tuesday, August 13, 2019

All important factors are finally putting tremendous pressure on the USDollar. The weak economy will result in lower interest rates, thus more downward USD pressure. The enormous USGovt debt will result in further bond dumps in addition to trade settlement outside the USD, thus more downward pressure. The resentment for threatened hot wars, trade wars, economic sanctions, and SWIFT obstructions will result in amplified resentment. They will respond with a global boycott of the King Dollar, dumping of USTreasury Bonds, and thus more downward pressure. Worse, a global currency war might erupt in the very near future, which might have basis in competing interest rates from monetary policy in addition to competing bond yields. The remarkable fact that has come to the table in the last few weeks is that foreign sovereign bond offerings are having strong demand despite lower bond yields offered than USTreasurys. However, the USTreasury auctions are being gradually noticed as failures, despite higher bond yields offered. The message is crystal clear, that collateral for the huge debt is far more important than the carry, namely the bond yield. Finally the USGovt debt is being questioned, as it rises past the $22 trillion level, as the debt limit is suspended, and as the over $20 trillion in missing funds is publicized. The USGovt financial room is a recognized crime scene.

Monday, August 12, 2019

In a purely political move, the Trump administration (read: the U.S. Treasury) has branded China as a currency manipulator. This is an act of war. After President Trump announced that even more tariffs would be imposed on China, the markets took the value of the Chinese yuan down a notch or two. So, who was “manipulating” the yuan, Beijing or Washington? Well, it looks like Washington is engaging in yet another Asian currency war.

As it turns out, the United States has a long history of waging currency wars in Asia. We all know the sad case of Japan. The U.S. claimed that unfair Japanese trading practices were ballooning its bilateral trade deficit with Japan. To “correct” the so-called problem, the U.S. demanded that Japan adopt an ever-appreciating yen policy. The Japanese complied and the yen appreciated against the greenback from 360 in 1971 to 80 in 1995 (and 106, today). But, this didn't close the U.S. trade deficit with Japan. Indeed, Japan's contribution to the overall U.S. trade deficit reached almost 60% in 1991. And, if that wasn't enough, the yen's appreciation pushed Japan's economy into a deflationary quagmire.

Friday, August 09, 2019

With the stock market going down, Bitcoin is viewed as a safe haven asset. But is this story really important? We have a different factor to focus on.

Bitcoin goes up, the stock market goes down. This is the kind of story we have seen now. And it is an appealing one. In an article on the CNBC website, we read:

Bitcoin soared 9% on Monday, performing like a safe haven asset as it edged past $11,000 for the first time since around mid-July.

The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed as high as $11,860, according to CoinDesk data, hitting a more than 3-week high. Bitcoin’s value now accounts for nearly 70% of the global crypto market, according to CoinMarketCap.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Following months of cajoling by the White House, the Federal Reserve finally cut its benchmark interest rate. However, the reaction in equity and currency markets was not the one President Donald Trump wanted – or many traders anticipated.

The Trump administration wants the Fed to help drive the fiat U.S. dollar lower versus foreign currencies, especially those of major exporting countries.

Instead, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied throughout July ahead of the expected rate cut and continued rallying after Fed chairman Jerome Powell made it official on Wednesday.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Since August 2018, Cable had been locked in a big range formed by 1.3280 and 1.2595, but the latest price action development suggests that the major forex pair could be up for a bearish breakout that could send the British currency towards levels not seen since the beginning of January 2017.

With the British Prime Minister Theresa May already announcing her resignation, British politics continue to be a big mess. Doubled by the likelihood of Boris Johnson being the favorite to take her sit, Brexit could turn out to be a more difficult situation to solve than anyone anticipated. Due to the uncertainty, the Bank of England had already signaled there won’t be any new rate hikes, which had been another important drag on the Pound.

Wednesday, July 03, 2019

Recently, the Winklevoss twins (who founded the Gemini crypto exchange) coined Bitcoin as ‘Gold 2.0.’ To support their perspective, they cited Bitcoin’s scarcity, its fungibility and its portability as meeting or exceeding that of the yellow metal.

Greyscale Investments, the company that has brought crypto based trusts to the US OTC market, recently ran ads urging investors to drop gold as a relic of the past in favor of cryptocurrency, which is ‘secure’, borderless, and in their direct words, ‘actually has utility’.

It seems that there are more and more comparisons between Bitcoin and gold, but is one better to hold more so than the other? Well, to be honest, each has a different ultimate purpose for which each is better suited.

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