North Carolina ignores science in sea level planning

An interesting political battle is underway in North Carolina on how to plan for 21st century sea level rise, newsobserver.com reports. Sea level rise scientists commonly cite one meter (3.3 feet) as the expected global sea level rise by 2100, and more than a dozen science panels from coastal states, including a state-appointed science panel in North Carolina, agree. However, a coastal economic development group called NC-20, named for the 20 coastal counties in North Carolina, attacked the report, saying the science was flawed. NC-20 says the state should rely only on historical trends of sea level rise, and not plan for a future where sea level rise might accelerate. North Carolina should plan for only 8 inches of rise by 2100, based on the historical trend in Wilmington, NC, the group says. Republican state legislators introduced a bill that follows this logic, requiring the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission to make development plans assuming sea level rise will not accelerate. On Thursday, a state senate committee signed off on the bill, sending it to the full Senate. NC-20 also successfully made an "intense push" to get the North Carolina Division of Emergency Management, which is using a $5 million federal grant to analyze the impact of rising water, to lower its worst-case sea level rise scenario from 1 meter (39 inches) to 15 inches by 2100.

FIgure 1. Global sea level rise from 1992 - April 2012, as measured by three satellite instruments (TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2.) Sea level rise has been relatively constant at about 3.1 mm per year (1.2 inches per decade) during this time period. The big downward dip during 2010 is due to the fact that year had a record amount of precipitation over land areas. By 2011, that precipitation had run-off into the oceans, bringing sea level back up again. Image credit: University of Colorado Sea Level Research Group.

CommentaryEast Carolina University geologist Stan Riggs, a science panel member and coastal science expert, said of the proposed legislation, “We’re throwing this science out completely, and what’s proposed is just crazy for a state that used to be a leader in marine science. You can’t legislate the ocean, and you can’t legislate storms.” Our climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, had this to say in his latest post: "I would dismiss the proposed law as an attempt to legislate away that which stands in the way of our desires to consume and build for our personal imperatives. I would dismiss it as politics and note the names of the un-serious politicians for the next election." I agree with both of these assessments. The best science we have argues the planet will continue to warm, melting icecaps, causing accelerated sea level rise. Between 1900 - 2007, global sea level rose at 1.7 mm per year (Bindoff et al., 2007). Between 1993 - 2012, sea level rise accelerated to 3.1 mm per year, a 75% increase over the 20th century rate. If this accelerated rate continues to 2100, global sea level rise will be 10.7", which is higher than the 8" rise North Carolina is being told to plan for. The continuing accelerating trend in Greenland ice loss since 2000 I blogged about last month should make anyone leery of betting that sea level rise will not accelerate even more in the coming decades. Betting that sea level rise won't accelerate this century is like betting that a slowly intensifying tropical storm will maintain that slow rate of intensification, ignoring that the majority of the computer models are predicting the storm will rapidly intensify into a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Sure, sometimes the models are wrong, but there is good science behind their predictions. If we wait until storm begins its rapid intensification to act, it will be a very costly mistake. The most sound action would be to prepare for the very plausible bad outcome our science is saying is most likely, instead of putting all of our chips on the low-probability, good-for-business outcome we hope for.

Sea, No EvilComedian Steven Cobert has a humorous piece on the new North Carolina sea level legislation in his June 4, 2012 Cobert Report. He uses the phrase "Sea, No Evil" to describe the affair. Some quotes:

"It would be a tragedy to lose precious coastal wildlife habitats to coastal flooding. Those habitats should be lost to developers' bulldozers."

"If your science gives you a result that you don't like, pass a law that the result is illegal--problem solved!"

Comedy Central reports on the recent decision by Virginia lawmakers to phase out use of the terms "climate change" and "sea level rise."

The Atlantic is quietThere are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic today. The NOGAPS model is predicting formation of a tropical tropical depression in the Western Caribbean this weekend, and takes the storm northwards into Florida early next week. None of the other models is going along with this idea, but there is some support for a broad area of low pressure developing in the Western Caribbean early next week in some of the other models. The waters offshore of North Carolina may be another region to watch, late this week, along the edge of a cold front moving off the U.S. East Coast.

That blob down in the southwest Caribbean is looking pretty good like the NOGAPS was predicting. It also seems to be stealing the energy out of the EPac. I wonder if it has a chance to move deeper int the Caribbean or if it is going to cross over to the Epac? What do all of you think of it?

21 ncstormI am not with the "right" and I dont believe in GW but I do believe in the Bible and I never read climate change in there..thats all I will say..moving on..

Oddly, I've never read anything in the Bible about computers or the Internet either... For that matter, there's nary a mention of glasses, dinnerware sets, or stainless steel table knives, forks, and spoons.

Quoting jeffs713:The bible never talks about the internet, nuclear weapons, or solar flares, either. Does that mean they don't exist?

Please take that global warming crap into the GW blog. Also can we not judge others based on religion. Instead of putting us Christians down, why don't you respect our beliefs, do you see us putting you down for being a non-Christian? Just saying.

Quoting washingtonian115:Let's not bring up religion please.People will end up getting banned.Let people believe in what they believe in and stop trying to tell them other wise.You believe in GW.Let them believe in their religion.

I apologize, but I was trying to prove a point. I had no intent on disparaging any religion or belief, but rather just pointing out the fallacy of being closed-minded.

Let's not bring up religion please.People will end up getting banned.Let people believe in what they believe in and stop trying to tell them other wise.You believe in GW.Let them believe in their religion.

Quoting LargoFl:I think we all here..have at some point in time..heard the story that california..at some point in time..will have that monster earthquake and sink into the sea..ok..now imagine...what would happen..to the Pacific ocean at that time?....little eathquakes create those tidal waves dont they? now imagine, the whole west coast of north america sinking into the sea..what a Monster tidal wave THAT would cause huh..the great flood all over again,hmmm maybe..world wide............so I suppose, huge earth movements in the past..have created, these huge flood events and will..in the future too

I think we all here..have at some point in time..heard the story that california..at some point in time..will have that monster earthquake and sink into the sea..ok..now imagine...what would happen..to the Pacific ocean at that time?....little eathquakes create those tidal waves dont they? now imagine, the whole west coast of north america sinking into the sea..what a Monster tidal wave THAT would cause huh..the great flood all over again,hmmm maybe..world wide............so I suppose, huge earth movements in the past..have created, these huge flood events and will..in the future too

So the models are on board with a possible sub tropical storm off the coast this weekend.I don't see we're their getting this idea of weakening that caribbean storm from..Ah well.We'll see if the conditions will be favorable by then.

ok doing some research on the flood,I am coming across ALOT of data on the .ummm flood...some say, the earth went thru a huge upheaval, some land sinking, some rising up..mount everest, has sea creature bones on it top..so that WAS..underwater at some point..NOT a flood being THAT high..but the top of mount everest was below sea level at some point in time..we know for sure..the continents move, over time crashing into one another, then moving away..at one time there was only ONE continent...but I was just reading from this article and here is their conculsion...................Conclusion: The Flood Occurred 5000 years ago C14 is not useful in dating before 5000 B.P. according to the discoverer of the method. River deltas suggest a recent (ca. 3000 BC?) flood. All written history begins ca. 3000 BC. Foundations of cities began then. Families of mankind began then. Geneologies date back to it. A 10,000 BC (or earlier) flood wreaks havoc with geneologies. There is no record of a 10,000 BC flood in ANY of the literature. The Gilgamesh Epic (and other epics) fit well into a 3000 BC date. The biblical account did not derive from other literature. It is eyewitness testimony. It is clear from the biblical account that there was a universal flood about 3000 BC.

10 weathermanwannabe: Thanks Dr. Coastal development is not the only issue on the table; literally. Any sea level rise is going to affect fresh water/aquifer issues with more pervasive salt water intrusion on local water tables. This County already blew it with continued oil dependence instead of accelerating alternative fuels decades ago. They need to start planning for desalinization plants, now, over the next several decades.

Desalinization is barely cheap enough to serve as a water source for urban populations. It's too expensive building&equipment&energy-wise to be used for agriculture, or to be used to create freshwater back-pressure to prevent saltwater intrusion into soils along the coastline caused by rising oceans.

While waste-water recycling&purification for recharging aquifers and reservoirs and direct use by consumers is less expensive than desalinization, it's still pretty much urban-use only cost-wise. Greenhouse operators and similar boutique flower and vegetable growers could afford it. But such far-cleaner-than-graywater would still be too expensive for eg most golf courses , and way too expensive for industrial-scale farming.

Wow, continued proof why parts of Republican mind sets are no good for this world. Good post Dr. It's important to battle the GOP on this overwhelming amount of evidence that we must change the way we live in the world, or at least keep up with the changing world!

No, that was was about people who werent following the WORD..nothing about the temperatures or solar flares..I apologize for bringing religion into a weather blog but I just wasnt going to sit here and people put down NCians because of GW..this is why I dont care for the climate change discussion because it goes from being cordial to just plain rude! You guys believe it your way and I will believe it my way! again..moving on!

iam wrong sorry and sorry to the blog iam not picking or singling anyone out what we have to do is show ya

by the way i know a guy in the south that has a boat iam sure he will sail on by and pick ya up maybe

Quoting CybrTeddy:Good morning, here's a rundown of the models this AM.

The 00z ECMWF continues to leave the door open for possible development off the US East Coast by 96 hours, and is probably sub-tropical in nature. By 168 hours, it now finally shows an area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean and moves it into the Gulf, but is very reluctant to strengthen it and dissipates it. I find that odd as conditions should be favorable by then.

The 06z GFS is similar to the ECMWF with predicting that it is possible that a sub-tropical cyclone could get going off the US East Coast by 72 hours as the low that emerges off the coast drifts south into warmer SSTs. By 132 hours, the GFS continues to consistently predict the development of a low pressure area in the Caribbean, and probably develops it into at least a very weak tropical storm before being drawn northward to Cuba and dissipating, where later the same trough that drives it develops a low pressure center by 192 hours, and another, stronger low pressure area gets started at the same time and heads into the Gulf under the influence of high pressure.

The 00z CMC/GGEM is the most bullish with development off the US East Coast, developing the cyclone in the similar time frame as the GFS and ECMWF, but brings it down to 1004mb as it drifts south and then becomes extra-tropical shortly there after. By 192 hours, it shows a low developing in the GoH before moving inland then into the Gulf, where it develops into a strong tropical storm by 240 hours.

The NOGAPS shows the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean by 132 hours, but is far to bullish with it and is going to be discarded in my opinion.

Finally, the 00z UKMET shows the development of a possible sub-tropical cyclone but the timeframe ends before we even get to see what it has in mind for the Caribbean.

In short, I believe there is a good possibility that we will see Chris soon and it is not out of the question we will get Debby this month as well, but much less likely.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:so you never read about that noah guy and the great flood

seems like that might have been climate change or maybe shift

No, that was was about people who werent following the WORD..nothing about the temperatures or solar flares..I apologize for bringing religion into a weather blog but I just wasnt going to sit here and people put down NCians because of GW..this is why I dont care for the climate change discussion because it goes from being cordial to just plain rude! You guys believe it your way and I will believe it my way! again..moving on!

I am not with the "right" and I dont believe in GW but I do believe in the Bible and I never read climate change in there..thats all I will say..moving on..

..........Native global flood stories are documented as history or legend in almost every region on earth. Old world missionaries reported their amazement at finding remote tribes already possessing legends with tremendous similarities to the Bible's accounts of the worldwide flood. H.S. Bellamy in Moons, Myths and Men estimates that altogether there are over 500 Flood legends worldwide. Ancient civilizations such as (China, Babylonia, Wales, Russia, India, America, Hawaii, Scandinavia, Sumatra, Peru, and Polynesia) all have their own versions of a giant flood.

These flood tales are frequently linked by common elements that parallel the Biblical account including the warning of the coming flood, the construction of a boat in advance, the storage of animals, the inclusion of family, and the release of birds to determine if the water level had subsided. The overwhelming consistency among flood legends found in distant parts of the globe indicates they were derived from the same origin (the Bible's record), but oral transcription has changed the details through time.

Perhaps the second most important historical account of a global flood can be found in a Babylonian flood story in the Epic of Gilgamesh. When the Biblical and Babylonian accounts are compared, a number of outstanding similarities are found that leave no doubt these stories are rooted in the same event or oral tradition.

The 00z ECMWF continues to leave the door open for possible development off the US East Coast by 96 hours, and is probably sub-tropical in nature. By 168 hours, it now finally shows an area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean and moves it into the Gulf, but is very reluctant to strengthen it and dissipates it. I find that odd as conditions should be favorable by then.

The 06z GFS is similar to the ECMWF with predicting that it is possible that a sub-tropical cyclone could get going off the US East Coast by 72 hours as the low that emerges off the coast drifts south into warmer SSTs. By 132 hours, the GFS continues to consistently predict the development of a low pressure area in the Caribbean, and probably develops it into at least a very weak tropical storm before being drawn northward to Cuba and dissipating, where later the same trough that drives it develops a low pressure center by 192 hours, and another, stronger low pressure area gets started at the same time and heads into the Gulf under the influence of high pressure.

The 00z CMC/GGEM is the most bullish with development off the US East Coast, developing the cyclone in the similar time frame as the GFS and ECMWF, but brings it down to 1004mb as it drifts south and then becomes extra-tropical shortly there after. By 192 hours, it shows a low developing in the GoH before moving inland then into the Gulf, where it develops into a strong tropical storm by 240 hours.

The NOGAPS shows the development of a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean by 132 hours, but is far to bullish with it and is going to be discarded in my opinion.

Finally, the 00z UKMET shows the development of a possible sub-tropical cyclone but the timeframe ends before we even get to see what it has in mind for the Caribbean.

In short, I believe there is a good possibility that we will see Chris soon and it is not out of the question we will get Debby this month as well, but much less likely.

Quoting StormTracker2K:I can see NC being in denial considering they have mostly republican views. Of course we all know the "right" does not believe in GW and they we soon be in disbelief as there are weird wx patterns all across the globe lately. From severe droughts to severe floods.

I am not with the "right" and I dont believe in GW but I do believe in the Bible and I never read climate change in there..thats all I will say..moving on..

Quoting StormTracker2K:Higher sea levels and a major hurricane could spell serious Doom for the Carolina's.

and they will bury their heads in the sand and still allow building right up to the waters edge, along comes a storm in 2100 and it all gets washed away and we..have to pay for it thru taxes for the relief efforts and rebuilding,the feds should say..if you wont listen..we are NOT going to pay afterwards

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILESWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENTOF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOWCHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

Thanks Dr. Coastal development is not the only issue on the table; literally. Any sea level rise is going to affect fresh water/aquifer issues with more pervasive salt water intrusion on local water tables. This County already blew it with continued oil dependence instead of accelerating alternative fuels decades ago. They need to start planning for desalinization plants, now, over the next several decades.

I can see NC being in denial considering they have mostly republican views. Of course we all know the "right" does not believe in GW and they will soon be in disbelief as there are weird wx patterns all across the globe lately. From severe droughts to severe floods.