Saturday, March 12, 2011

Wow, what a day/afternoon/night! The buzzer beaters, the overtimes, the comebacks, the great individual performances...that 36-33 game (ugh). Here's a recap of yesterday's events and a quick overview of how we see things with just about 36 hours to go before the Selection Show:

Saturday UpdateWe have been waiting for the bubble teams to make their moves for a few weeks and it just never happened. Better late than never, right? Michigan State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Alabama, and Richmond (and St. Mary's) all won last night, and in many cases (Michigan, Michigan State, Virginia Tech) the wins look to be bid-clinchers.

The hardest thing for us to do was pick the 37th an final at-large team from a pool of pretty ugly and very smiliar resumes. We said in our Friday notes that if Penn State beat Wisconsin, that they woud "likely" end up on the Last Four In line. The Nittany Lions held up their part of the deal, but as you can see in our bracket, we didn't hold up on our end. Clemson, not Penn State, is the final team in our field, as a result of the Tigers' blowout win over Boston College. The Nittany Lions may still be able to sneak in the field, even with a loss to Michigan State today, but we think they are still just shy of a bid heading into Saturday's action. Depending on how well they play and what Clemson does against UNC, they can get in. Right now, though, they are our last team out.

Big picture-wise, there are five teams in our bracket that we could potentially see getting left out - Alabama, Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, or Clemson. The three teams we think that have a chance for an at-large over any of these teams are Penn State, UAB, or USC. Obviously, if a bid- stealer comes out of the WAC or A-10 today, everything changes.

Some other important notes from Friday night:

- The Pac-10 results on Friday were a dream come true for bubble teams.

- There is still the chance for bid stealers out of the A-10 and WAC.

- Bubble teams need to pull for Memphis to beat UTEP.

- With ND losing to Louisville, there is definitely a potential opening on the 1 line. Can Duke get there if Nolan Smith is out? Can BYU climb back up? Those questions will get answered today.

This is our last bracket that will be released before our final Field of 68, which will be posted bracket on Sunday afternoon. We will answer as many questions as we can via Twitter and the comments section today and tomorrow. Enjoy Championship Weekend!

323 comments:

Amazed their aren't 10 comments already from mad Penn St. fans. WHy does USC seem to be getting more consideration today after losing to Arizona. Both you and luinardi have them with a chance. (He has them in I believe) What happened to lose and no chance. I think UAB and Penn St. are only teams that have a case to take a spot and USC should not be this close to in.

OK, I'll be first to ask whether the broken collarbone suffered last night by Michigan's junior left wing David Wohlberg in a 5-1 win over Bowling Green seriously damages the 24-9-4 Wolverines' chances of getting a one seed.

PSU fan here...and surprisingly not mad. I think they need one more win to seal the deal. I'm just still not getting why USC is in the conversation. And in my pipe dream, I'd still like to see VCU, Missouri state, St. Mary's get in over USC, Georgia, Michigan, etc.

Because of Notre Dame's loss, I'm now my wife's beer slave during PSU's spring scrimmage weekend. One time I root for the Irish...and it blows up in my face. They should still be a #1, right??

Sometimes it is just a matter of you don't know what the committee is going to value most when they select teams. Will it be quality wins, will it be winning your regular season title, will it be SOS, etc. USC has quality wins in and out of conference and they finished 7-3 (picking up wins over the teams in the Pac-10 final). Maybe the committee overlooks all the bad losses. You are constantly reevaluating teams and trying analyze ways they can get in.

The lack of bid stealers so far has really create somewhat of a mess in trying to choose the last few bubble teams.

A PSU loss today and I think we'll be the first team "out" like 2009, especially with the A-10/WAC/C-USA situations unfolding, along with VT and Clemson back in the fold. A lot of things have broken right for us to get back in this, but the VT and Alabama performances this weekend have hurt.

A PSU win today and not only are we in, I think we skip the "first 4" since I don't think the committee wants to take a team that plays Thurs/Fri/Sat/Sun and throw them into a game again on Tue/Wed.

I am not saying they SHOULDN'T be in, but is that really the resume of a team that's a "lock" to get in? Would GM be so safe in everyone's eyes if their name wasn't "George Mason" and everyone didn't have 2006 in their memories? Should that be a factor?

The ACC games had an interesting effect yesterday. It knocked both Florida State and Boston College out of the RPI top 50, while VT and Clemson are still outside of the top 50. Now Clemson is 0-5 against the top 50, Florida State is 1-5 against the top 50, Virginia Tech is 2-4 against the top 50, and BC is 1-5 against the top 50.

Great post, J Gibson and the anonymous guy. Seems to me that if it came down to Va Tech and BC, you'd take both or neither. Va Tech 0-2 vs. BC has to count, no? And why are they on the 11 line, not even in a play-in game? Va Tech just lost to Clemson last week. I don't get it.

Thanks for the love toward BYU. I don't think they can get a 1 seed without a STRONG win today, and probably Duke losing, but I love that they are at least in the conversation. Their only loss in the last long while was within 24 hours of losing a key member of the team in a way that was more devastating than I think a lot of people understand. I am not saying you should accept their stance as correct, I am just saying they were concerned about the effect on the team as well as their brother's eternal salvation.

Getting blown out, even by UNM, even at home, wasn't totally unexpeceted. And they have picked up the pieces very nicely.

Of all the Big Ten teams playing tomorrow, PSU needs the win the most. They might still need to win the automatic bid. The same goes for Alabama.

Can we *please* cut out the "Utah State could get an at-large" nonsense? That team is a house of cards and everybody *knows* they're going to lose today. That' just what they do: run away with the #1 seed and lose in the final. The committee needs to realize that Stew Morrill is seriously disrespecting other mid-majors who actually go out and schedule tough non-conference games while he's arrogantly refusing to play ball with anyone who won't come to his place. Who does he think he is, Jim Boeheim?

The George Mason numbers are interesting. However, this comment page usually isn't the best forum for that debate. Once a team has been established as a "lock" by the bracketology community, then any challenge to that status is simply disregarded as "crazy talk".

You say crazy talk, others say irrelevant. Debating whether or not a team that WILL be in the tournament SHOULD be in the tournament is an exercise in futility. Time could be far better spent on actual topics.

What are the chances of CUSA dancing three (UAB, Memphis, UTEP); is it UAB or Memphis but not both if UTEP wins?Also, If there are three dance catagories (lock, should-be-in, and work-left-to-do, i.e. not-in-right-now), In which category are VT and Clem? What effect does the series between VT, Clem, and BC have on this?

Yes Penn state is 3-8 on the road but they can play with any one on the road they lost by 3 at Ohio state and a bad call prevented them from winning at purdue but also the ncaat is played on a neutral court where psu is 2-0 I think it Isn't that Penn state can't play away from home and yes they have those two bad losses but USC has way more and way worse same with bama

Georgetown moved up the end of the 5 line because of Wright's impending return and because we didn't like any of the 6s to move up. Even with an A-10 tourney title, we think Temple still could end up a 6.

@AG FSU was T50 before they lost today. So VT lost two T50 wins by beating them. The wonder that is the RPI.

You have to feel for VT. For them not to play in the NCAAs at this point would be a crime. I know the committee isn't supposed to get emotional about things, but I'd be hard pressed to find a team that's had to deal with more injuries, buzzer beaters and other assorted basketball gods chicanery.

It was a re-evaluation of FSU on our part. The 'Noles fnished with a nice ACC record (11-5), but that record masks the fact that they have just one Top 50 win. Their 1-3 record against VT and Clemson combined isn't very pretty either.

Who else wants to see Jimmer take on the whole Penn State squad?! He scored the same amount of points by himself in the first half as Wisconsin did the whole game! I thought it was a halftime score when I got that final score on my phone!

Wileydan as a Michigan fan, PSU does deserve to be in the dance. A win is a win, no matter the score. The Big Ten has the most success in the NCAA's because they play DEFENSE. Something the Big East and ACC and Big 12 no nothing about.

In an absolute lose/lose situation, would it do more good for Boston College if VaTech won and maybe boosted themselves into the top 50 RPI to add two more top 50 wins to BC's profile or if they lost and BC can just stand on their profile against VT?

Sure Penn St. played defense, just no offense. Seriously, there is no reason a game should end 36-33. There is a difference between a good defensive game and a miserable offensive game. Penn State just looked the least impressive. Wisconsin isn't looking that good either. They were blown out by Ohio St. 93-65. Yeah, the Big 10 is so good defensively...

"The Big Ten has the most success in the NCAA's because they play DEFENSE. Something the Big East and ACC and Big 12 no nothing about."

Yep, not being able to play D is why the ACC and Big XII have won the last 3 national titles. And we all know what a success the Big Ten has been. Who could forget the incredible one national championship in the past 23 years?

That Memphis win was huge for the Georgias and PSUs of the world. UTEP probably wont make it because the committee recognizes that these were home games, and they aren't going to get much of a boost by reaching the Finals.

St. Mary's will be much debated over the next day. They will be a tough call, but you have to figure that one of the 4 mid-major teams on the bubble (VCU, SMC, UAB, and Missouri State) will get a bid. We just like St. Mary's ahead of that group.

I'm completely on board with the St. Mary's hate. Their third-best win is against Long Beach State. And the San Diego loss is just HORRENDOUS. With only 1 top-50 win (at home) and only 3 top-100 wins, that should not be enough imo.

The Georgia wins gave them life (and possibly knocked out Georgia), but I think Bama is done getting crushed here. People tend to overrate recent results compared to the overall view the committee takes and I think their OOC results will still kill them. See also, Colorado.

Surprised to see you have Texas A&M behind teams like Arizona (only 2 top-50 wins and a terrible loss), Cincinnati (worse RPI and SOS), and Temple (loss to A&M at neutral site, only 2 top 50 wins and a bad loss).

What am I missing?

A&M either has better numbers, more good wins, fewer bad losses, or straight up beat the team.

b101--As a faithful (and beaten-down) VT fan for many years, with Bama getting crushed and Memphis taking care of business, is there any scenario where VT doesn't get in even if we lose to Duke?

Also, and this might sound strange, but do you think the committee has a sympathy vote? In other words, if VT/whoever have equal resumes, is it possible they go with sympathy for VT's past woes. I know it's lame, but I'll take a sympathy vote at this point to get those seniors in the dance one time. I know the committee would never admit it, but just curious.

Clemson should be cheering for VT - win here might put them in the T50 of the RPI. Boston College dropping a ton due to the loss really hurt them, same as VT beating FSU and knocking them out of the T50. The RPI!

Clemson should be nowhere near the field if Georgia doesn't get in. Side by side resume of those 2 favors Georgia. Better RPI, SOS, more top 50 wins and zero bad losses. Put Georgia in already!!! Please!

I am guessing even if PSU wins again. The bar for them will reset to; now they have to beat OSU. If they had the opportunity to play Iowa or Indiana twice in the regular season, there would be no discusion, they'd be in.

My favorite bit of MSM ignorance today: 8 bubble teams listed on the screen (USC, VCU, Clemson, VT, etc). Clark Kellogg is asked which of these teams he has in. His answer? "Well, uh... I think you have to put all these teams in."

Somebody needs to inform these people the field hasn't expaneded to 96... yet. Seems like every time they start talking about the last 4 in/out they think all the teams should be in.

Ya they also dont want to be the jerk who says that this team or this team should be out. Anyway these stations should all hire someone to tell them what the tourney situation is like. ESPN at least has Luinardi while although he is not great he's still way better then letting the commentators talk for themselves.

For the most part I think your right its just hard to say both Clemson and St.Marys are clearly in. I think if Utah State loses tonight St.Marys drops out over the other SEC teams. I think only one of those two SEC teams will get in, but find it hard to believe that they both will get left out. Also I still think UAB has a slight chance.

A. Played a tough OOC schedule (3 games vs tourney teams, 1 against a 1 seed, one against a 2 seed + Baylor), didn't rack up a ton of bad losses, dominated their conference competition(11-5), has 3 wins over current tourney teams, and has a signature win. They may not look extremely impressive, but of all of the reasons you can look at the other teams and say "Yeah, they're nice but...", you can't with FSU. Their best guy got hurt, and they kept playing as well as before, and he is reportedly practicing just fine, and will be back for the tourney. No way they get left out.

No way is FSU a 9. They have one win over a team that's solidly in. Then wins over Clemson, BC and Baylor, that's pretty much it. 11-5 in the ACC is still good enough to get them in, and Auburn is their only bad loss. They'll be a 10 at best, but probably an 11, maybe a 12.

Team A is 19-12; SOS of 20; 9-9 and tied for 4th in conference; RPI of 47; 6-10 vs. RPI top 50; four of 12 losses were to teams with RPIs 1 and 2; eight of 12 losses were to teams with RPIs of 17 or lower; 8-4 in last 12 games with two of those losses to team ranked number one in polls; one loss by two on the road to team it beat yesterday on neutral court; one loss by one at home on buzzer beater to team wiht RPI of 16.

Team B is 21-5; SOS of 181; 12-2 and tied for first in conference; RPI of 32; 1-5 vs. RPI top 50, including loss on the road to Team A; 16 wins vs. RPI of 150 or above; 9-3 in last 12 games with two of those losses to team with 48 RPI.

Team A should be sweating tomorrow just because it has no ”signature wins” and Team B should get in over Team A just because its head coach used to coach Team A and never took Team A to the NCAA Tournament?

first, cbs announcers are DUMB. i agree with previous posts. the reason why psu SOS is 5 is cause they played OSU twice, Purdue twice, and wisconsin three times and on the flip indiana once+tourney and iowa once.

MSU you ask? OSU once, Purdue 3x, and Wisc 2x. MSU played the #1 team in the country once. as in...one time. and on the flip indiana 1x and iowa 2x + tourney!!!!

and with the B10 final it will be PSU playing the number 1 team 3 times....

but can anyone explain why PSU is still the low team below Michigan, MSU, and Illinois? How are we Lunardi's last 4 in???? At least vs. MSU we're 2-1 H2H and will be higher in RPI and pretty even in top 50/top 100. I'm confused!

@Coug: Non-conference play. Penn St beat nobody and lost to 3 games to teams that aren't going to the tournament. They might be ahead of MSU, but are still behind UM and Illinois. PSU is definitely in the field, though.

FSU is probably behind the Big 10 teams. They have one top 50 win, compared to 5 for PSU, 6 for MSU, and 7 for Michigan.

Singleton was brought out for show in the ACCT, but didn't play. Who knows if he'll be back. And their SOS? It's 80 even with a nice OOC schedule. The ACC was not good this year - wins over the bottom mean little to nothing. The committee has shown before that it pretty much ignores conference records and only looks at who you beat, so I don't think 11-5 ACC means anything.

I think 1 (not both, and not neither) of Alabama/Georgia is going to get in, and I have yet to see a persuasive argument for Georgia being that team since Alabama just beat them twice in the past week. We shall see though, as when it comes to the last team in, my guess is as good as Bracketology101's or anyone else's.

Correctly guessing the last team in is almost entirely luck. Correctly seeding the 4-11 seeds is the skill that separates the best bracketologists from everyone else. Tomorrow should be quite a fun day, and I really hope this year's NCAA tournament is one for the ages.

and the other thing i dont understand is how its commented how bad PSU loss some games but never comment how close some other losses were (OSU, Purdue, and Michigan) were less than 3 pts....

I believe a loss is a loss regardless of score but if you're gonna mention score diff as a negative you have to give credit for close losses too....and I think an argument could be made for PSU higher than MICH and ILL too. I just dont see PSU as the #12 play-in but illinois as far as a #10. the four tied 4th place teams are much closer and but PSU is in the finals and went through 1 of those teams to get there and a top 25 wisc (albeit ugly-ly)

Ya more I look at Florida State the more scared I get for them.54 RPIone quality winonly one decent road winand they lost to Auburn.... I mean really Auburn???Comparasin to other ACC bubbles1-1 with Clemson1-2 wih Va Tech1-0 with BC

And I don't even know why pointing to their OOC schedule even helps. They played Florida (L), Ohio State (L), Butler (L), and Baylor (W). Besides that, two mediocre teams, and a bunch of bad teams, one of which they lost to (Auburn).

PSU has to be ahead of MSU in the Big Ten pecking order now, right? They won 2/3, have a better RPI, and now a better conference record. Also, glad to see other equally as outraged with Steve Kerr and the rest of the CBS college basketball "experts" not understanding something as simple as SOS. Also they completely forgot to mention that MSU played 2 teams with RPIs or 300+, which absolutely kills the SOS.

I'm a PSU fan and I don't think there's any way you can put PSU ahead of UM unless they beat OSU tomorrow because of those 2 H2H losses. I could see an argument for PSU to be ahead of Illinois, though.

@7:42 Penn state has the same amount of losses that Michigan has so it's kinda funny that you say look at how many losses and also Penn state best wiscy twice who has Michigan beat And don't even mention the close loss to Wisconsion because Penn state was a bad call away from beating purdue on the road and three points away from winning at ohio state

The more I think about it, the more I feel Alabama is out. I think we are underestimating the horrible non-conference schedule (ranked 296) and their performance AGAINST that non-conf. schedule (only 8-6). They finished 12-4 in conf. play (13-5 if you count the conf. tourney) but it was in the weaker division of the SEC (got to play Auburn and LSU twice).

I think bracketologists tend to incorrectly weight the end of season performances. Remember Va Tech from last year -- the committee head pointed directly to their non-conference SOS as a reason they were left out.

And for the record, Colorado's Non-Conf. SOS is ranked 329 -- just sayin'.

OBVIOUSLY 11-5 in the ACC means nothing. That's why we're talking about them as a 9-12 seed, and not a 4. They are a very good team capable of beating every team in the country at home, and more than capable of losing to good teams on the road. They still, however, won 4 conference road games. No way they get left out.

Yes, Penn State lost to Maine at home, and had those 3 OOC losses which were bad, that's why we're discussing if they're a play-in team or not. However, they finished tied for 4th with 3 other teams and had the hardest in-conference schedule in the Big Ten. If you included the tournament results so far, they have the best 4th best record in the Big Ten. I just don't see how they're not ahead of either MSU or Illinois.

There is no doubt Penn State is in:5 Top 50 WinsOnly 3 games played vs the RPI 200 and worse (many bubble contenders have many more games vs the dregs of the NCAA to pad win totals)Did not have the benefit to play Iowa or Indiana twice and still finished tied with MSU/Illinois/Michigan in conference.

Also, everyone brings up Maine (RPI 213). Lets not forget Illinois lost to RPI #295 UI-Chicago, which, although was at a neutral site in Chicago was dominated by Illini fans if you saw it on TV.

Also, what do Michigan, MSU, and Illinois have in common? They all lost to a Big Ten Bottom feeder (Indiana or Iowa). Penn State did not lose to either.

I'm not saying the other 3 shouldn't be in, but Penn State is right there with them.

Another amusing point was the guys on CBS bringing up Clemson...they have ZERO Top 50 wins and have played 6 games vs teams with RPIs over 200.

To answer your ? about the non-conf sos, if you go to ESPN's bracketology page (that shows Lunardi's bracket) then click on a team, their page has all the info you need (not sure how current it is though)

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