thx, yeah yeah its been a while for sure....lol...was flipping thru radar sims and noticed this little feature...looks like a LP develops along the tail-end of a stalled and gets absorbed or blown out by the bigger mid lat system digging into the S.cent US...

That's interesting, I was looking at a few of the GFS runs this morning and all 3 that I looked at (the 0, 6, 12z) all showed something spinning up around the 16-18th. But those runs showed it coming up from the southern Caribbean, not developing in the gulf.

If that stalled front is still hanging around, it could drag what ever develops across Cuba and or Florida. The last frame of the run showed it at 999mb.

That's interesting, I was looking at a few of the GFS runs this morning and all 3 that I looked at (the 0, 6, 12z) all showed something spinning up around the 16-18th. But those runs showed it coming up from the southern Caribbean, not developing in the gulf.

If that stalled front is still hanging around, it could drag what ever develops across Cuba and or Florida. The last frame of the run showed it at 999mb.

Even though it's been in the GFS runs this morning, it has been hinting in the LR of something developing in the Gulf for quite a few days now.

Could we have a micro tropical system in the GOMEX starting sometime today and lasting into tomorrow?

If by some chance the strong cluster of thunderstorms can spin a tiny low pressure system even with shear over the area, a micro tropical system could form, or at least something that would resemble one.

The June 6th 00Z ECMWF believes such a tiny system may form today and last into tomorrow, making landfall into the Florida panhandle. Has anyone noticed it?

Hope all f you have had a great night.Could we have a micro tropical system in the GOMEX starting sometime today and lasting into tomorrow?

If by some chance the strong cluster of thunderstorms can spin a tiny low pressure system even with shear over the area, a micro tropical system could form, or at least something that would resemble one.

The June 6th 00Z ECMWF believes such a tiny system may form today and last into tomorrow, making landfall into the Florida panhandle. Has anyone noticed it?

A STRENGTHENING CORE OF NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOPSOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THEEASTERN PACIFIC WITH TIME...WHICH WILL RE-ESTABLISH A TROUGH INTHE WEST AND CAUSE RIDGING TO BUILD IN THE EAST. A MOBILEPOSITIVE ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES EAST FROMATLANTIC CANADA...CAUSING A DEEP CYCLONE TO REMAIN PARKEDNORTHEAST OF BERMUDA/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA AND SHOULDNOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ANYWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST INCONTRAST TO THAT FCST BY THE 00Z CANADIAN SOLUTION. PRIMARY DIFFSSEEN IN LATEST GUIDANCE INVOLVE TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THE TROFDEVELOPING OVER THE WEST AND SOME SHRTWV DIFFS IN THE LESSAMPLIFIED FLOW AHEAD OF THE WRN TROF.

WITHIN THE DEVELOPING WRN TROF THE 00Z GFS/UKMET SHOW HIGHER HGTSTHAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE INCL THE 00Z GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLEMEANS. INTO DAY 5 THU THE 06Z GFS IS A TAD DEEPER THAN THEGUIDANCE AVG BUT NOT UNREASONABLE. BY DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT THE00Z/06Z GFS BOTH TREND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS WITH THE MID LVLSYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES REASONABLY WELL TO THE MEANS THRUDAY 7. RECENT LAGGED AVG FCSTS OF THE GFS/ECMWF ADD SUPPORT FORTHE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN OVER THE WEST.

DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHRTWV THAT ISEXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NRN PLAINS/UPR GRTLKS AROUND THU-FRI. THE00Z GFS/UKMET ARE ON THE STRONGER/FASTER SIDE OF THE SPECTRUMWHILE THE 06Z GFS IS ON THE SLOW/NWWD SIDE. ENSEMBLES ARESUFFICIENTLY DIVERSE TO YIELD MEANS THAT ARE RELATIVELY FLAT WITHTHIS FEATURE. AMPLITUDE OF SUCH A SHRTWV SHOULD NOT BE TOO GREATGIVEN THE LOWERING OF HGTS OVER THE WEST. AFTER THE PASSAGE OFTHIS SHRTWV INTO CANADA... THE 00Z ECMWF DEVELOPS A STRONGER ERNRIDGE THAN OTHER SOLNS BY FRI-SAT.

EXPECT RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO...WHICH MAYAID IN A COUPLE ATTEMPTS AT TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OFSOUTHERN MEXICO PER YDAYS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. LATE INTHE PERIOD... CONSENSUS FLOW OVER/NEAR THE CONUS MAY ALLOW A SFCWAVE TO REACH THE GULF STREAM. THE WAVE MAY LOSE ITS TRAILINGCOLD FRONT AS IT MOVES UNDER THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BUILDINGRIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND... WHEN IT SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR ANY SIGN OFCONVECTIVE/WARM CORE DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE BOTHALBERTO AND BERYL FORMED IN MAY.

Cats, here is the deal. We have found the ultimate rose between the thorns. Track has been pretty easy call. We have a blo torch before and after, in a bad setup for snow lovers. We somehow have trapped one day of cold in an ugly 7 day pattern. It is truly amazing. Think opposite; 6 days of cold then a storm to the west. Imagine the horror. So if this produces 3-4 inches, it is a rock star.- rtcemc

Too early to know if this potential is real or not, and exactly where it would be located, but I would place the next possibility for tropical development around the June 18-24 time frame with another ridge building into the northern US/southern Canada with lower heights further south.