Tuesday, August 07, 2018

Series Preview

In just a few short hours the first series that could legitimately end the Nats season will start. A Braves sweep would put the Nationals 8.5 games behind Atlanta with a little over 7 weeks to play and only 3 games left against them head to head. . It would also likely put the Nationals ~8 games behind the Phillies and ~7 games behind the 2nd WC team. Out of the division and likely 4+ teams ahead of them for the Wild Card it would be time to close up shop.

Of course a sweep is unlikely and anyother scenario keeps the Nats hopes alive.
1-3 : Season shifts to "Every series is important now"
2-2 : Nats use up more of their dwindling time. Got maybe a week left before critical games everyday.
3-1 : Nats continue slow crawl back into it. Next up proving it against the best of the NL Central
4-0 : Look out! Here comes the Nats!

The series doesn't line up great for the Nats (I put little stock in predictive sites for these things. Just in general but also bc they've overrated this Nats team all year long at this point).

G1 is Max Fried against Jefry Rodriguez. Fried is a pretty talented lefty but has only been used to spot start for the Braves this year and can get wild. That would normally favor the other team but Jefry has pitched to a 9.00 ERA after an impressive relief outing (against the Braves!) and no one expects much from him. Add in the Nats usual lefty troubles and you have to like the Braves here.

G2 is Newcomb who has looked great after the break. He's not a swing and miss guy rather he's effective at getting poor contact. And he's a lefty. You wouldn't like the Nats chances except - it's a Max night. Worst case with Max is nearly always that he's off and gives up like 4 runs over 7+ innings. The Nats gotta be favorites here.

G3 is Folty vs Tommy Milone. Folty has been a little bit too home prone recently and hasn't pitched like the pitcher he was for most of the first half. Still there are two bright sides if you are a Braves fan. His last start was ok and he's up against Tommy Milone. Milone has pitched well so far, but against the Mets and Marlins it's hard to believe in it. Also he's a guy with good control who has walked NONE and a guy who gives up a homer or two a game that has given up one so far. There's a reckoning coming. I like the Braves here.

G4 Anibal Sanchez vs Gio Gonzalez. Despite this being a match up of two of the most successful pitchers of the past half-decade it seems pretty unappealing. Sanchez hasn't shown any sign of giving up his resurgance while Gio once again threw up a stinker after looking like he may have righted the ship. Still I'm going to put this as a toss up because Gio's problem is control and the Braves are a free-swinging team. It's the prefect match-up for him assuming he keeps the ball in the park.

That's the starters

As for hitting - The Nats are hot. Over the past two weeks Bryce has been Bryce. Murphy has been Murphy. Soto has not slowed down. Outside of the catcher spot being the catcher spot and a slight slump from Eaton the Nats have been full speed ahead. with even MAT and Difo having mini-surges. The Braves can't really compete with that Markakis has been hot but other than him and maybe Acuna the team is doing nothing special. Albies, Swanson, and Suzuki/Flowers are all in big slumps leaving a hole in the Braves line-up currently.

Relief pitching wise the Nats have had mixed results - Grace and Miller and Madson pitching well. Herrera and Solis not so much. The Braves on the other had have 6 relievers who have yet to give up a run in the past two weeks.

To sum up everything above - the Nats have the edge at the plate. The Braves have the edge on the mound. I'd say a split is the most likely scenario with the games going ATL, WSN, ATL, WSN but I'm going to give the Nationals the edge just because they need it more. If they are going to turn a corner it almost has to be here so let's say they do it. I'll say the Nats take 3 games.

The Post reporters on twitter stated the ball hit off Inciarte's glove, then off the wall, and then Duvall caught it, so since it hit off the wall no catch. Turner panicked bc he thought it was caught and ran back to first. They called Soto out bc he passed Turner on the base paths. Gave Nats a chance to challenge but they decided not to challenge. I would think they would just award Turner second bc he thought it was caught. I would have challenged but who knows.

Said the Nats had to win 9 straight or 11 of 13 to get back in it. Now we have a beginning. Time for Max to be a Cy Young winner tonight Hitters need to show up. Take nothing for granted and take no prisoners.

Braves suggestion on air (with no evidence) that Soto’s a fraud who lied about his age is bush league. It’s fine to wonder about something like that given his performance. I even don’t have a problem raising it privately in a discussion really. Putting out an accusation like that in a broadcast largely because Ronald Acuna is supposed to be the super young phenom and he’s being unexpectedly out-classed by somebody younger on his division rival is crap in my opinion. It’s just as wrong as saying on air “you have to wonder about player X doing steroids since he’s gone from being crappy to awesome this year.” That’s true. You CAN wonder. Broadcasting it is a different story. Thinking and saying a theory with no basis are very separate. Just ask a defamation lawyer (not that that’s what this is!). [also: sorry, but Soto’s crazy fast ascent through minors really undercuts this theory. Would it be any less unprecedented if a 20 year old spent like 8 seconds at each level then hit like this his rookie season? Not really. Everything about Soto seems crazy unusual.

I agree with your point that the accusation against Soto is crap. Is there any well known instances where an mlb ROY prospect was later exposed to be older than originally stated? Would it even matter if he was older relative to the ROY eligibility guidelines? No. Its not like Soto has been playing in Japan or some other country with professional baseball.

I don't have as much of a problem with suspicions against veteran players whose numbers vastly improve late in their career where normally such numbers go south. Several caveats: - the suspicions are couched as suspicions and not accusations.- the improvement has to be so vast that there is sufficient likelihood of unnatural performance improvement

Crappy luck resulted in not turning hits into offense. The Nats had a higher OPS than the Braves tonight. Seven hits (three xbh) and two BB (+1 hbp) for 1 run is unfortunate spacing. The game ended on a double play when a liner got nabbed by the 3B with two on. I know some people would say it's lack of "situational awareness" or "manufacturing runs" but there are only so many times you can bunt a guy over if the next doesn't come until the next inning.

If the Nats were in a better position, this would be one the "these things happen" games while Max rolls to another CY and SOTO goes to RoY based on good performances today. Given their current status, it hurts.

At some point, the reality has to sink in that for whatever reason or reasons you assign this team just isn't good enough to make the playoffs.In a related matter, I just read that the camel DM rode into spring training has been placed on IR with a fractured hump. They have scheduled an MRI for today and expect the results before noon. If all goes well they won't need to do surgery but the camel is likely out of commission until Feb. We all should have seen this coming.I wonder what next spring's ploy will be. May I suggest, Back To The Basics or It Is All About The Fundamentals.

The bottom of the fifth is Example A of the lack of situational hitting/manufacturing of runs that these guys HAVE TO START TURNING AROUND. Michael A. Taylor led off with a double. Baserunners are at a premium. Runs are hard to come by tonight. The other guy is pitching as good as your guy, and the hit itself was a blooper that barely landed fair. SO YOU HAVE TO DELIBERATELY, METHODICALLY GET THAT RUN IN!!!!!!! It goes without saying that Matt Wieters has to hit behind him. HAS TO. THERE'S NO DEBATE. What does he do? Batting right handed he pulls a pitch ON THE OUTSIDE PART OF THE PLATE and grounds out to Swanson. A totally unproductive out when a grounder to the right side gets Taylor to third, and then you can have Max squeeze him in or even whack one through the drawn in infield. Or maybe this time he doesn't pop up trying for a hit knowing all he has to do is sac fly. Maybe it gets Newcomb rattled. It changes the whole game.

Getting Michael A. to third is both fundamental and critical to the outcome. THESE ARE THE THINGS YOU HAVE TO DO TO WIN GAMES LIKE LAST NIGHT. And they are the things that the Nationals don't do and the things that Davey Martinez shows no interest in doing. AND THAT IS JUST OUT AND OUT STUPID. So go ahead and mock away, wise guys. That game wasn't lost on bad luck. That game was lost on bad management and subsequent bad relief pitching. But no you cannot assume that everything else that happened from the sixth inning on would have happened the same way had we gotten that run in. That would have changed the whole dynamic. We may have lost anyway, but we darn sure would have been in an infinitely more favorable and winnable situation. You have to make things happen when you get the chance.