Tuesday, February 16, 2016

A World Without Peacemakers

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Today’s
Post is brought to you by…Peacemakers Anonymous: A support
group for those who are peacemakers at heart, but who are forced to play the
warmongers in public in order to preserve their secret identity as peacemakers,
an identity so secret it could never influence their public behavior and could
only be preserved as an ethos. And…Warmongers
Anonymous: A support group for warmongers battling with their secret craving
for peace.

The Delirica

I seek to document for posterity
the insanity of the current hour in the hope that they might choose to learn
what we have clearly decided not to learn: that indifference to the plight of
others is wrong, that the world has grown too small for us to keep clinging to
tribal modes of belonging, that our sense of humanity and decency cannot have
geographical boundaries, that we should be aware of our interconnectivity and
its implications just as we are becoming aware of the interconnectivity of our
physical environment and its implications, that our fate is one, that if some
of us should fall, no one will be left standing long enough, by history’s
standards, to feel sorry or even gloat. WE ARE ONE.

*

When Aleppo falls ethnic
cleansing is bound to follow, and that will translate into more refugees going
to neighboring countries, and on to Europe. In fact, this is already happening.
Tens of thousands have by now fled their homes, hundreds of thousands, then
millions, will soon follow. This is what a victory by the Assad regime, or to
be more specific, by his Russian and Iranian overlords, actually means in
practical terms. Assad, Iran and Russia are pursuing a scorched-earth policy,
so those who are forced to leave now will have no place to return to tomorrow, even
if they were allowed to return, which they probably won’t. During the conflict
and for many years after it’s over, people will keep streaming out of Syria,
because life under oppression and want is no less abhorrent or possible than
life under constant bombing. Fate has struck, and we all had a hand in it.
Syria will be depopulated, and the world will have to cope. And there will be
other Syrias to come.

*

Michael
Ignatieff: A Syria policy that dare not speak its name. “This is where risk
avoidance has led a conscientious, prudent American president — to a diabolical
transaction in which he and his allies regretfully sacrifice the lives of
innocent civilians in the name of the mistaken belief that the west’s only
overriding strategic interest in Syria is the defeat of Isis. If this is the actual
policy of the US the consequences should be spelt out. Russia and Iran will
consolidate control of a rump state in the Middle East but the millions of
Syrians who have fled the fighting will never return home and the region will
never know peace.”

So does the encirclement of
Aleppo, the ceasefire notwithstanding:Syrian
Army Is Now 15 Kilometres Away From Cutting ISIS in Half. “Loss of crucial
Al Tabqah corridor would leave a huge swathe of ISIS territory on the right
bank of the Euphrates without a road connection to the rest of ISIS' statelet.”
But that’s not the goal at this stage, but an incidental achievement that comes
as part of the plan to completely encircle and lay siege to Aleppo. There will
be no major clashes between IS and the pro-regime militias yet, and no attempt to
wrest control of Raqqah back from IS.

But let’s be clear here, according
to local reports, IS has withdrawn much of its leaders from the city itself,
with many of them relocating to Mosul, perhaps on their way to their new colony
in Libya. But, IS still maintains control over the Tabqah Dam, and IS is
playing a part in besieging local rebels in north Aleppo by ensuring that they care
caught in a pincer situation, between PYD forces and Shia militias on the hand,
and IS Jihadis on the other, all while enduring Russian airstrikes: While
peacemakers talk, Aleppo's children pay the price of Syria's war. “The rebels in Aleppo
are now being attacked by Bashar al-Assad in the south, Kurdish insurgents in
the west and Islamic State in the east.”

As for Raqaah, whoever wants to
go after IS positions there needs to secure the Tabqah Dam first. If not, then,
the fate of the Dam and so many thousands of people in different parts of Syria
and perhaps Iraq will be left in the hands of IS’ local leaders, as I have
previously argued.

For the ceasefire has many
holes that can be easily exploited:Assad
and Putin Will Likely Disregard the Syria Cease-Fire and Destroy the Opposition.
“Deal or
not, Russia and the Syrian regime have no reason to voluntarily jeopardize
their recent gains or slow their momentum… Assad and Putin can target any
opposition group they please, claiming the group is fighting alongside the
Nusra Front… The regime and its Russian and Iranian backers are on track to
overwhelm the insurgency in the north and south.”

Add to the mix the
pontifications of Mr. Assad…Ceasefire
Doesn’t Mean Parties 'Stop Using Weapons,' According To Syria's Assad... and
you get something more akin to… continued slaughter, especially when Assad’s
allies seem to entertain similar ideasHospitals
in Syria Bombed as Fighting Escalates. “Strikes on terrorist
groups will continue in any case, even if a cease-fire is agreed upon in
Syria,” Mr. Gatilov told the German magazine Der Spiegel. “After all, the main
point is that the cease-fire would cover those who are truly interested in a
beginning to the negotiation process, and not terrorists.” And isn’t it just convenient when you are
able to define all your enemies as terrorists?

But will Obama? With this
in mind, the decision by Mrs. Merkel to back the establishment of no-fly zones
is the right thing to do, albeit it’s long overdue: Angela
Merkel backs no-fly zones to protect civilians after Russia accused of bombing
schools and hospitals. “The air campaign has sent a new wave of refugees to the
Turkish border, alarming both Ankara and European leaders fearful that more
people could seek to reach their shores.” But, will the U.S. and NATO
back such a move? And will that have any perceptible effect on what’s
transpiring in Aleppo? This remains to be seen. For a successful intervention
in Syria requires confronting Putin and downsizing his ambitions.

Refugenics:Lebanon
doesn't want Syrian refugees getting too comfortable, even in winter. The
refugees are there to stay and the sooner they are accommodated the sooner a
serious process of integration can take place. The refugees have no place to go
back to, and won’t for many years, if ever. The humanitarian thing is the only
right policy when it comes to refugees, politics be damned. After all, we are dealing with another Nakba
in the region, writ large: Exodus
and betrayal: How a Syrian Nakba was created. “Abandoned by the US, betrayed by
Arab governments, shut out of Europe, Syrian refugees are an increasingly
significant political fact.”

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