wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....

I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

5/2/0 is very possible along with an ace under 25

0 likes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MGC wrote:I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC

We already had a U.S. landfalling hurricane a few weeks ago. Arthur made landfall as a formidable Cat.2 along the Outer Banks of NC.

0 likes

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

Former TD 2 looks just about dead for now.. If it moves into Carribbean it will be dead for sure but if it moves NW and lingers near Bahamas it could be something (unlikely). We will see by tomorrow night....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

0 likes

SHORT VERSION OF DISCLAIMER: THIS SITE LINK BELOW IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECASTING OFFICE AND SHOULD NOT BE USED TO MAKE ANY EMERGENCY DECISIONS....

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....

Just because people saying global warming would increase hurricanes were wrong does not mean that people saying global warming is happening were wrong. This is a pretty annoying and common failure of logic, just because one thing is wrong doesn't mean every thing is wrong.

Weather is really complicated!

0 likes

I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be used as such. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

The remnants of Tropical Depression Two, located about 140 mileseast of the Lesser Antilles, are producing cloudiness anddisorganized showers. There are no signs of a surface circulation,and environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable forre-development of this system as it moves rapidly westward at 25mph. Regardless of development, the system is expected to bringgusty winds and showers to portions of the Lesser Antilles tonightand Thursday morning.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$Forecaster Roberts

0 likes

Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

MGC wrote:I was actually kind of suprised that TD-2 formed at all considering how unfavorable the tropics are right now. Glad to see it poof, lets hope we have a landfall free hurricane season the remainder of this year.....MGC

TD Two's development was largely due to the passage of a convectively-coupled kelvin wave. These waves enhance upper-level divergence, leading to lowering surface pressures and convective development. This is similar to how Dorian last year developed; we see what happened to it once the CCKW passed. This was nothing different.

Another one will pass next week, so we might have to watch the central/eastern Atlantic then. Not every CCKW will lead to a tropical cyclone though.

Steve H. wrote:Sorry, this has absolutely nothing to do with a Kelvin Wave. Where/how did you come up with this hypothesis?

What's your evidence that it wasn't?

Convectively-coupled kelvin waves are associated with localized regions of enhanced upper-level divergence. When air diverges in the upper atmosphere, air at the surface is forced to rise; since pressure is just a byproduct of the weight of an air parcel, when this air rises into the upper atmosphere, surface pressures lower. Lowering surface pressures feedback, leading to enhanced low-level convergence. Increased levels of low-level convergence mean more rising air, more convective development, and more latent heat release.

There are MANY known cases of tropical cyclones forming during or just after the passage of CCKW. We've seen several in the East Pacific this year alone. A new hypothesis is that CCKWs may also aid in the rapid intensification of cyclones, as we saw with Amanda in May and Raymond last October.

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Then so much for all of the global warming doomsayers about the increase in hurricanes because of global warming....Guess there's no global warming after all.....If the globe was indeed heating up, then so would be the oceans and so would be the tropical activity..True there are other conditions, but there would still be more tropical disturbances due to the "hot water"....

Just because people saying global warming would increase hurricanes were wrong does not mean that people saying global warming is happening were wrong. This is a pretty annoying and common failure of logic, just because one thing is wrong doesn't mean every thing is wrong.

Weather is really complicated!

Maybe so....I mean California(where I live) is on the verge of a catastrophic disaster of epic proportions(horrible drought), so something obviously is going on.... I feel like anyone who says that should have all their daily water privileges removed......People who take water for granted.

Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Jul 24, 2014 9:56 am, edited 1 time in total.

Yellow alert have been activated in the butterfly island and should be maintain till tommorow 6AM.

For those who are interrested this twave is crossing Guadeloupe since yesterday night...bringing thunderstorms even isolated ligthnings and showers.

Our local Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe measured between 20 and 40 millimeters at Petit-Bourg (near my locality) and gustywinds up to 63km/h. Waves average of 2m10, with max at 3m70. Thanksfully this feature should bring some water after the severe drought always occuring in most of the EC islands . I will keep your informed if i've more infos from this feature.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms moving westward overportions of the Lesser Antilles are associated with the remnantsof Tropical Depression Two. There are no signs of a surfacecirculation, and environmental conditions are not conducive forre-development of this system as it moves west-northwestward atabout 25 mph. Showers and gusty winds are possible through much ofthe day, especially on the islands of Guadeloupe, Dominica,Martinique, and St. Lucia.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Generally it seems these unfavorable conditions have been around for years, at what point do we conclude an overall pattern change has ocurred from the active period that started in the mid 1990's

i think the active period ended a few years ago and might be the shortest active period ever. we got quite lucky as the active period of 1933-1964 featured many more major canes hitting the US. most of the time since 1995 we have had a protective trough in the west atlantic.

0 likes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wxman57 wrote:Was corresponding with Phil Klotzbach yesterday regarding the state of the tropics. He was saying that he's never seen the Tropical Atlantic so unfavorable in almost every way. Cool water, high pressure, sinking air, dry air, unfavorable upper winds. Everything is anti-hurricane, and the values are about as anti-hurricane as he's seen in decades. One place that isn't so unfavorable is the Gulf of Mexico. Have to watch for close-in development this year.

Generally it seems these unfavorable conditions have been around for years, at what point do we conclude an overall pattern change has ocurred from the active period that started in the mid 1990's

Not to put too fine a point on it, didn't Phil K. (and many others) not get it too right last season?