The NHC has downgraded to Cat 3 with 120 mph winds. There's an extreme wind warning in effect for Naples/Marco Island area for winds over 115mph. Just because you don't seem them on the wind observation, which are generally listed for every 4-6 minutes, not continous, doesn't mean they're not happening.

These are not tropical storm force winds. There will be some bad surge on the backend of the hurricane

TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornadowas approaching and move immediately to the safe room in yourshelter. Take action now to protect your life!

The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in areinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table orother piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillowsto cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage ofthese life-threatening conditions.

boomer wrote:Oh goodness, this is a Category 4 storm. Max substained winds are 130 mph, just because you see lower wind speeds on the internet doesn't mean that storm is falling apart.

I know this storm is being called a Cat 4, but I can't pull up a single weather station that shows sustained hurricane force winds.

Here are two marine weather buoys in the Keys (Key West and Vaca Key). Look at the history as the storm approaches. The sustained winds never go beyond tropical storm speeds. Both these weather stations took direct hits this A.M. The pressure did drop with what you see typically with a Cat 3 storm.

Even now, Irma hasn't moved too far north. These two stations should be getting blasted by hurricane force winds on the backside of the storm. They aren't.

The eye of Irma is now making a bee line for Naples Florida and has put Naples in a heavy storm band. Lots of rain (about 3 inches) but so far, the sustained winds are in the tropical storm range. 40 mph to 70 mph.

I'm going to trust the experts who do this for living, many of whom are in the path of this storm. There is a forecasted surge of 10 to 15 feet from Cape Sable to Captiva Island. Irma is strong enough to suck/blow the water out of bays on the west coast, that water is coming back with a bunch more when the wind starts to come out of the west and the pressure increases.

There's plenty of hyping going on with the media coverage but make no mistake, this is NOT a "super hyped storm"

I updated my brother... looks like he will be okay in Sarasota. The expanding eye wall will put him in Cat 1 or lower winds, which he should be able to ride out no problem.

My parents are in Venice and we finally convinced them to leave last night. Modest deviations in course (much less than what has happened with the westward shift over the past 24-36 hours) could put the west coast at huge risk and even if Irma stays to the east there are likely to be widespread power outages - and who wants to deal with that?

stc4blues wrote:Looks like once it clears out Florida Irma will be on a reverse Sherman's March. This looks very very bad.

I updated my brother... looks like he will be okay in Sarasota. The expanding eye wall will put him in Cat 1 or lower winds, which he should be able to ride out no problem.

The issue is also going to be flooding. Florida exited the drought it was having and has now had an excess of rain. At my parent's place in Naples, the retaining ponds are at the highest they have been in years. Add 7 inches of rain in 24 hours and there will be major flooding issues on top of the winds.

Weatherbell update for the morning puts Irma almost dead up the center of Florida, with her weakening to a Cat 2 by Sunday. Wind gusts on the perimeter of the storm will still be in the 115 mph range. So far all the models except the GEM (Canadian) have very similar paths. The Canadian, which updated at midnight, still showed the storm going up the east coast of Florida, then making a second landfall in the Georgia / South Carolina region. The Canadian starts its next update around noon time today. The other models updated more recently.

The debate between the models is on intensity, which is between a strong Cat 4 to weaker Cat 5. I have included the HWRF model this time around as it does a good job showing estimated surface wind speeds.

dmark526 wrote:Scary stuff. Heard about the shortages in FL but didn't know it went that far north. Hopefully he will find a place with gas in route. I know that gas tankers are getting police escorts to get down there.

Some blogs I'm reading are mentioning an app called Gas Buddy that is helping folks find fuel locally.

Gas Buddy has always been a very good resource when in road trips. In addition to them enabling users to flag stations that have run out of fuel, Waze has added the same feature over the past few days. Waze users can update information on gas stations to let other Wazers know if the station has gas available.

dmark526 wrote:Scary stuff. Heard about the shortages in FL but didn't know it went that far north. Hopefully he will find a place with gas in route. I know that gas tankers are getting police escorts to get down there.

Some blogs I'm reading are mentioning an app called Gas Buddy that is helping folks find fuel locally.

Scary stuff. Heard about the shortages in FL but didn't know it went that far north. Hopefully he will find a place with gas in route. I know that gas tankers are getting police escorts to get down there.

The afternoon Euro model run wobbled the storm farther West. The eye of a Cat-4 storm will pass about 15 to 20 miles west of Naples, FL.

My brother has been trying to evacuate from Sarasota. He has a full tank of gas, which will get him out of FL.. but the route to Atlanta (where he has room reservations for his family) has no gas available.

It is very Mad Max / Road Warrior in nature. "Without fuel.. they were nothing..."

brewster wrote:Good God, 62 ft waves????????????? Any idea if that is from trough or the water level? I thought oceanographers use the latter, which would make the waves 124 ft from trough to peak!

We are in the cycle of the full moon which makes the tides higher combined with the Cat 5 wind from the storm. I can conceive of a 62 ft wave out on the ocean but not sure about a wave that big making it to land.

The models all seem to be coming into an agreement: Irma will hit South Florida then come up Florida’s East coast, making a 2nd landfall from Georgia to North Carolina. Weatherbell expects it to weaken to a Cat 4 as it passes near Cuba, then re-strengthen back to a Cat-5 when it approaches Florida (very warm water giving the storm energy). The Euro and GFS now have very similar tracks, with the GFS in a more easterly direction. The GFS has the pressure under 900 mbar, which is more intense than the Euro. Weatherbell thinks there is a 1:10 chance Irma will meet or exceed the strength of the 1935 hurricane that flattened the Florida Keys.

The GEM (Canadian) model is the farthest East, with the remnants of Irma burning out over Delaware & Maryland. With all tracks, Irma is basically a rain and generally crappy weather event around the end of next week.