5 Fringe Politicians That Could Throw Europe Into Chaos In 2015

Deflation is looming and growth is nowhere to be seen. There's conflict in Ukraine, unemployment is still eye-wateringly high, and it doesn't seem like much of that is going to change any time soon.

So insurgent opposition parties are popping up all over the continent, promising an end to crisis or a return to how things used to be.

Here's what Citi's researchers had to say about Europe's political developments in their outlook for 2015:

Future developed country elections will likely continue to see the popularity of new — and not so new — anti-establishment parties, from France's National Front to Greece's Syriza to Spain's up-and-coming far-left Podemos, increasing the risk of fragile multi-party coalitions and reducing the already limited political capital of leaders. In our view, the appetite for political alternatives will endure for many years to come, and their public support could increase in the event of a triple-dip European recession, a non-negligible risk.

Here's a look at the five leaders most likely to cause an upset in the year ahead:

Berndt Lucke, Alternative fuer Deutschland

Berndt Lucke, who leads Germany's anti-euro movement, could have a knock-on effect for German politics. REUTERS/Ina Fassbender

Lucke often doesn't get a look-in when people are talking about Europe's fresh new populist movements. AfD is comparatively poorly supported and, unlike the emergent centre-right and right-wing parties in other parts of Europe, AfD and Lucke are less prone to inflammatory rhetoric.

But that shouldn't undermine Lucke's potential impact. Germany is a colossal, irreplaceable lynchpin in the European project.

Angela Merkel's centre-right Christian Democrats enjoy widespread support for now, but some disgruntled voters are heading to the AfD. If more follow them as the German economy slows down, the Christian Democrats could be forced to pursue more anti-European policies in an attempt to get them back. German voters are overwhelmingly opposed to Europe-wide stimulus projects and a more stern stance from Berlin could worsen Europe's already achingly-slow growth.

Nigel Farage, UKIP

Farage, the long-time leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), poses a threat to Europe from outside of the currency union.

UKIP aren't likely to win the UK's upcoming general election in May 2015. They're not even necessarily going to get any seats, owing to the UK's electoral system. But their shadow is hanging over British politics at the moment.

Even with relatively little concrete political power, just a few seats in parliament for Farage's UKIP could be crucial. No party seems likely to get majority support from the country, so alliance-building will be unavoidable after 2015. If UKIP's handful of MPs held the balance of power, they could push for an EU referendum almost immediately.

Pablo Iglesias, Podemos

Pablo Igelsias' Podemos are currently ahead in Spanish polls, a year from the country's next election. REUTERS/Juan Medina

Spain's anti-austerity insurgents, Podemos, have surged from nothing to become the most popular party in Spain right now.

If this list was ranked, Iglesias would be a serious contender for the man most likely to upturn the European political system in 2015. Iglesias is a fan of Greece's Alexis Tsipras, but unlike Greece, Spain is too big to be isolated by European authorities.

Similarly to Syriza, Podemos would seriously clash with the eurozone's economic and political orthodoxy, particularly on the issue of fiscal policy. The eurozone has agreed to rules that try to limit the deficit spending of its members, which Podemos would not abide by.

Marine Le Pen, Front National

Marine Le Pen of France's Front National looks unlikely to win power any time soon, but she's casting a long shadow over the country's politics. REUTERS/Robert Pratta

Marine Le Pen is the most obvious representative of Europe's hard right. Le Pen leads Front National that her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, led before her. A long-time presence in French politics which came in second place in France's 2002 Presidential election.