Monday, January 12, 2009

There wasn't too much change in the bracket this week in terms of which teams made the field. LSU and BC each suffered two losses this week, so they were replaced with Arizona and Washington. The battle for the ACC regular season title is looking like just as good of a battle as we are seeing in the Big East, with four solid teams (Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, and Clemson) having a chance at it. Wake Forest proved that they are for real with their win over UNC. Clemson has the easiest road since they only have to play Duke, UNC, Miami (who they already beat), and Maryland once.

A recurring theme from our early season brackets has been the Big 6 dominance. This week, the major conferences have 31 out of 34 at-large bids and it's tough to envision scenarios in which this will change. The MWC is looking like the best of the mid-majors and has the best chance at three bids. The A-10 and WCC look like they will both max out at two bids. Butler and Memphis will likely have at-large profiles come season's end, but they will both be heavy favorites to win their conference tournies since they will have to be beaten on their home court (assuming Butler wins the regular season). The Colonial and MVC, who have earned multiple bids in recent years, are both on a one bid track. Utah State also is worth keeping on eye on out in the WAC. If they can manage to get through conference play with only two or three losses and pick up a quality win in their BracketBuster game, then they may warrant an at-large if they need it.

We admittedly have Cal high at a 3 seed, but right now they have the best resume and are playing the best ball out of anyone in the Pac-10. They have won 9 in a row, have an 11 RPI, and have solid road wins (UNLV, Utah, and Washington). The Pac-10 isn't as strong as it has been in the past few years but the winner of the leauge will likely end up with at least a 3 seed come tourney time and right now Cal is the leader.

Hey Paymon...we haven't abandoned the projection/prediction method at all. We seeded our teams based on a combination of what has already happened and what we think will happen.

We know there are a lot of ACC teams (4) on the top two seed lines, but that speaks to the strength of the top of the ACC and a little to the weakness of the ACC bubble. It will probably be easier for the ACC to get four 1-2 seeds than it will for the Big East, which is a deeper and stronger league top to bottom. Also, keep in mind that based on our latest S-curve, the Big East has only 2 "Top 10" seeds, but Syracuse, ND, and Georgetown are seeded 11-13, so they are right on the cusp of the Top 10.

As for Cal, they are on the 3 line (as mentioned above) becaause they are the best resume of any team in the Pac-10. At the end of the year, whether it's Cal or UCLA, the Pac-10 champ will deserve at least a 3 seed.

If they canbuy Diablo 3 Gold manage to get through conference play with only two or three losses and pick up a quality win in their BracketBuster game, then they may Cheap GW2 Goldwarrant an at-large if they need it.

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