1. Main points for February to April 2018

Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between November 2017 to January 2018 and February to April 2018, the number of people in work increased, the number of unemployed people decreased and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking or available to work (economically inactive) also decreased.

There were 32.39 million people in work, 146,000 more than for November 2017 to January 2018 and 440,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

There were 1.42 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 38,000 fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018 and 115,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.

There were 8.65 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 72,000 fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018 and 200,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.5%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.8% excluding bonuses, and by 2.5% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

2. Summary of latest labour market statistics

Table 1, Figure 1a and Figure 1b show the latest estimates, for February to April 2018, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity and show how these estimates compare with the previous quarter (November 2017 to January 2018) and the previous year (February to April 2017). Comparing the estimates for February to April 2018 with those for November 2017 to January 2018 provides the most robust short-term comparison. See Section 3 of this statistical bulletin for more information.

Table 1: Summary of labour market statistics for February to April 2018, seasonally adjusted

Number
(thousands)

Change on
Nov to Jan
2018

Change on
Feb to Apr
2017

Headline
Rate (%)

Change on
Nov to Jan
2018

Change on
Feb to Apr
2017

Employed

32,394

146

440

Aged 16 to 64

31,172

137

426

75.6

0.3

0.8

Aged 65 and over

1,223

9

14

Unemployed

1,416

-38

-115

4.2

-0.1

-0.4

Aged 16 to 64

1,394

-41

-123

Aged 65 and over

22

4

9

Inactive

19,184

-33

-17

Aged 16 to 64

8,651

-72

-200

21.0

-0.2

-0.5

Aged 65 and over

10,533

39

183

Source: Office for National Statistics

Notes:

1. Calculation of headline employment rate: Number of employed people aged from 16 to 64 years divided by the population aged from 16 to 64 years. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive.

2. Calculation of headline unemployment rate: Number of unemployed people aged 16 years and over divided by the sum of employed people aged 16 years and over plus unemployed people aged 16 years and over.

3. Calculation of headline economic inactivity rate: Number of economically inactive people aged from 16 to 64 years divided by the population aged from 16 to 64 years. Population is the sum of employed plus unemployed plus inactive.

Figure 1b: Quarterly and annual changes in the number of people in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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3. Things you need to know about this release

About labour market statuses

Everybody aged 16 or over is either employed, unemployed or economically inactive. The employment estimates include all people in paid work including those working part-time. People not working are classed as unemployed if they have been looking for work within the last four weeks and are able to start work within the next two weeks. A common misconception is that the unemployment statistics are a count of people on benefits; this is not the case as they include unemployed people not claiming benefits.

Jobless people who have not been looking for work within the last four weeks or who are unable to start work within the next two weeks are classed as economically inactive. Examples of economically inactive people include people not looking for work because they are students, looking after the family or home, because of illness or disability or because they have retired.

Making comparisons with earlier data derived from the Labour Force Survey

Estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity, hours worked and redundancies are derived from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), a survey of households. The most robust estimates of short-term movements in these estimates are obtained by comparing the estimates for February to April 2018 with the estimates for November 2017 to January 2018, which were first published on 21 March 2018. This provides a more robust estimate than comparing with the estimates for January to March 2018. This is because the February and March 2018 data are included within both estimates, so effectively observed differences are those between the individual months of January and April 2018. The LFS is sampled such that it is representative of the UK population over a three- month period, not for single month periods.

Accuracy and reliability of survey estimates

Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses and are therefore estimates rather than precise figures. Further information is available in the Quality and Methodology section of this statistical bulletin.

Where to find explanatory information

4. Employment

Employment measures the number of people in paid work and differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. Further information is available at Notes for Employment at the end of this section.

Commentary

The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years in work is known as the employment rate. Figure 2 shows the employment rates for people, men and women aged from 16 to 64 years since comparable records began in 1971. The lowest employment rate for people was 65.6% in 1983, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The employment rates for people, men and women have been generally increasing since early 2012. For the latest time period, February to April 2018, the employment rate for people was 75.6%, up from 74.8% for a year earlier and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971.

February to April 2013 to February to April 2018

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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75.6% of people aged from 16 to 64 years were in work, the joint highest employment rate for people since comparable records began in 1971

80.0% of men aged from 16 to 64 years were in work, the joint highest employment rate for men since February to April 1991

71.3% of women aged from 16 to 64 years were in work, the highest employment rate for women since comparable records began in 1971

The increase in the employment rate for women over the last few years has been partly due to ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65.

For February to April 2018, there were 32.39 million people in work, 146,000 more than for November 2017 to January 2018 and 440,000 more than for a year earlier.

Figure 4 shows how the estimates for full-time and part-time employment by sex for February to April 2018 compare with those for a year earlier. The annual increase in the number of people in employment (440,000) was mainly due to more people in full-time employment (259,000).

Figure 4: Changes in people in employment in the UK between February to April 2017 and February to April 2018, seasonally adjusted

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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Comparing the estimates for employees and self-employed people for February to April 2018 with those for a year earlier:

employees increased by 473,000 to 27.42 million (84.7% of all people in work)

self-employed people increased by 9,000 to 4.81 million (14.9% of all people in work)

Employees and self-employed people do not account for all people in employment as there are two minor additional categories; unpaid family workers and people on government-supported training and employment programmes.

Where to find data about employment

Employment estimates are available at Tables 1 and 3 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets A02 SA and EMP01 SA.

Notes for: Employment

Employment consists of employees, self-employed people, unpaid family workers and people on government-supported training and employment programmes.

Unpaid family workers are people who work in a family business who do not receive a formal wage or salary but benefit from the profits of that business.

The government-supported training and employment programmes series does not include all people on these programmes; it only includes people engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training who are not included in the employees or self-employed series. People on these programmes not engaging in any form of work, work experience or work-related training are not included in the employment estimates; they are classified as unemployed or economically inactive.

5. Public and private sector employment

Things you need to know about public and private sector employment

Public sector employment measures the number of people in paid work in the public sector. The public sector comprises central government, local government and public corporations. Estimates of public sector employment are obtained from information provided by public sector organisations.

Private sector employment is estimated as the difference between total employment, sourced from the Labour Force Survey, and public sector employment.

Comparisons of public and private sector employment over time are impacted by changes to the composition of these sectors. For example, if a publicly owned body is privatised, public sector employment will fall and private sector employment will increase by an equivalent amount. This is known as a reclassification effect. At Table 4 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset EMP02 we therefore publish estimates of public and private sector employment excluding the effects of major, but not all, reclassifications alongside estimates of total public and private sector employment.

Commentary

For March 2018:

there were 5.36 million people employed in the public sector, 10,000 more than for December 2017

there were 27.04 million people employed in the private sector, 136,000 more than for December 2017

16.5% of all people in work were employed in the public sector (the lowest proportion since quarterly records began in 1999) and the remaining 83.5% worked in the private sector

Between March 2017 and March 2018, public sector employment fell by 102,000 and private sector employment increased by 542,000. These annual changes have been impacted by the reclassification of English housing associations, which are included in the private sector from December 2017 but are included in the public sector between September 2008 and September 2017. Excluding the effects of this reclassification, public sector employment increased by 42,000 and private sector employment increased by 398,000 between March 2017 and March 2018.

For March 2018, there were 1.64 million people employed in the National Health Service (30.6% of all people employed in the public sector) and there were 1.51 million people employed in public sector education (28.2% of all people employed in the public sector). Figure 5 shows public sector employment in education and the National Health Service for the last five years.

Figure 5: Public sector employment in education and the National Health Service in the UK, seasonally adjusted

March 2013 to March 2018

Source: Quarterly Public Sector Employment Survey, Office for National Statistics

6. Actual hours worked

Things you need to know about actual hours worked

Actual hours worked measures the number of hours worked in the economy. Changes in actual hours worked reflect changes in the number of people in employment and the average hours worked by those people.

Commentary

Between November 2017 to January 2018 and February to April 2018, the number of people in employment increased by 146,000 (as explained in Section 4 of this statistical bulletin ) but total hours worked decreased by 4.1 million to 1.03 billion. This decrease in total hours worked reflected a fall in average weekly hours worked by full-time workers.

For February to April 2018:

people worked, on average, 31.8 hours per week, 0.3 hours fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018, 0.4 hours fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since September to November 2012

people working full-time worked, on average, 36.9 hours per week in their main job, 0.4 hours fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018, 0.6 hours fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since April to June 2011

people working part-time worked, on average, 16.4 hours per week in their main job, 0.2 hours more than for November 2017 to January 2018 and for a year earlier

Figure 6 shows total hours worked and the number of people in work, as indices, for the last five years.

Figure 6: Total hours worked and number of people in work in the UK, seasonally adjusted

7. Workforce jobs

Things you need to know about workforce jobs

Workforce jobs measures the number of filled jobs in the economy. The estimates are mainly sourced from employer surveys. Workforce jobs is a different concept from employment, which is sourced from the Labour Force Survey, as employment is an estimate of people in work and some people have more than one job.

Figure 7: Changes in the number of jobs in the UK between March 2017 and March 2018, seasonally adjusted

Source: Office for National Statistics

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Looking at a longer-term comparison, between June 1978 (when comparable records began) and March 2018:

the proportion of jobs accounted for by the manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors fell from 26.4% to 7.9%

the proportion of jobs accounted for by the services sector increased from 63.2% to 83.4%

Where to find data about workforce jobs

Jobs estimates are available at Tables 5 and 6 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets JOBS01 and JOBS02.

While comparable estimates for workforce jobs by industry begin in 1978, some historical information back to 1841, not comparable with the latest estimates, are available from 2011 Census Analysis, 170 years of industry.

8. Average weekly earnings

Things you need to know about average weekly earnings

Average weekly earnings measures money paid per week, per job to employees in Great Britain in return for work done, before tax and other deductions from pay. The estimates are not just a measure of pay rises as they do not, for example, adjust for changes in the proportion of the workforce who work full-time or part-time, or other compositional changes within the workforce. The estimates do not include earnings of self-employed people.

Estimates are available for both total pay (which includes bonuses) and for regular pay (which excludes bonus payments). Estimates are available in both nominal terms (not adjusted for consumer price inflation) and real terms (adjusted for consumer price inflation). The estimates of average weekly earnings in real terms are calculated by deflating the nominal earnings estimates by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH).

Further information is available at Notes for Average weekly earnings at the end of this section.

Commentary

For April 2018 in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation):

average regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £484 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £472 per week for a year earlier

average total pay (including bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £516 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, up from £504 per week for a year earlier

Between February to April 2017 and February to April 2018, in nominal terms, regular pay increased by 2.8%, slightly lower than the growth rate between January to March 2017 and January to March 2018 (2.9%).

Between February to April 2017 and February to April 2018, in nominal terms, total pay increased by 2.5%, slightly lower than the growth rate between January to March 2017 and January to March 2018 (2.6%).

Figure 8 compares the annual growth rates for both regular and total pay, in nominal terms, for the last five years.

February to April 2013 to February to April 2018

Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey, Office for National Statistics

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Looking at longer-term movements, average total pay for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased from £376 per week in January 2005 to £516 per week in April 2018; an increase of 37.1%. Over the same period, the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) increased by 34.7%.

For April 2018 in real terms (constant 2015 prices):

average regular pay (excluding bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £459 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, £14 lower than the pre-downturn peak of £473 per week recorded for March 2008

average total pay (including bonuses) for employees in Great Britain was £490 per week before tax and other deductions from pay, £32 lower than the pre-downturn peak of £522 per week recorded for February 2008

Figure 9 shows average weekly earnings for total pay and regular pay in real terms (constant 2015 prices) since comparable records began in 2005.

January 2005 to April 2018

Source: Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey, Office for National Statistics

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Between February to April 2017 and February to April 2018, in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation), regular pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 0.4% and total pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 0.1%.

Where to find data about average weekly earnings

Estimates of average weekly earnings in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Tables 13, 14 and 15 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets EARN01, EARN02 and EARN03.

Estimates of average weekly earnings in real terms (that is, adjusted for consumer price inflation) are available at Table 16 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset EARN01.

While comparable records for average weekly earnings start in 2000, modelled estimates of average weekly earnings in nominal terms back to 1963 (which do not have National Statistics status) are available at dataset EARN02.

Notes for: Average Weekly Earnings

1 The estimates relate to Great Britain and include salaries but not unearned income, benefits in kind or arrears of pay.

2 As well as pay settlements, the estimates reflect bonuses, changes in the number of paid hours worked and the impact of employees paid at different rates joining and leaving individual businesses. The estimates also reflect changes in the overall structure of the workforce; for example, more low paid jobs in the economy would have a downward effect on the earnings growth rate.

Where to find more information about labour disputes

10. Unemployment

Things you need to know about unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks.

The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population who are unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed. This follows guidelines specified by the International Labour Organisation and it ensures that UK unemployment statistics are broadly comparable with those published by other countries.

Commentary

The proportion of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) who are unemployed is known as the unemployment rate. As shown in Figure 11 (which shows unemployment rates for people, men and women), the lowest unemployment rate for people recorded since comparable records began in 1971 was 3.4% in late 1973 to early 1974 and the highest rate, 11.9%, was recorded in 1984 during the economic downturn of the early 1980s. The unemployment rate for people for the latest time period, February to April 2018, was 4.2%, the joint lowest since 1975.

11. Economic inactivity

Things you need to know about economic inactivity

Economically inactive people are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or they are unable to start work within the next two weeks.

Commentary

The proportion of people, aged from 16 to 64 years, not in work and neither seeking nor available to work is known as the economic inactivity rate. Figure 13 shows that, since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate for people has been generally falling (although it increased during economic downturns) due to a gradual fall in the economic inactivity rate for women. The economic inactivity rate for men has been gradually rising.

For February to April 2018:

the economic inactivity rate for people was 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.5%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971

the economic inactivity rate for men was 16.3%, lower than for a year earlier (16.5%)

the economic inactivity rate for women was 25.6%, lower than for a year earlier (26.5%) and the joint lowest since comparable records began in 1971

January to March 1971 to February to April 2018

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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Figure 14 looks in more detail at the economic inactivity rate for people since comparable records began in 1971. The economic inactivity rate for people increased during the economic downturn of the early 1980s, reaching a record high of 25.9% in 1983. As the economy improved in the late 1980s, it resumed its downward path, before the economic downturn of the early 1990s drove it back up again.

Following an increase in the economic inactivity rate during the economic downturn of 2008 to 2009, it again resumed a generally downward path.

January to March 1971 to February to April 2018

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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For February to April 2018, there were 8.65 million people aged from 16 to 64 years not in work and neither seeking nor available to work (known as economically inactive). This was:

72,000 fewer than for November 2017 to January 2018

200,000 fewer than for a year earlier

the lowest since March to May 2000

Looking in more detail at the 8.65 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive for February to April 2018, the two largest categories were students (26.8% of the total) and people looking after the family or home (23.4% of the total):

there were 2.32 million people who were not looking for work because they were studying, 23,000 more than for a year earlier

there were 2.03 million people who were not looking for work because they were looking after the family or home, 175,000 fewer than for a year earlier and the lowest since comparable records began in 1993

The third and fourth largest categories were long-term sick (22.9% of the total) and retired (13.0% of the total):

there were 1.98 million people who were not looking for work due to long-term sickness, little changed compared with a year earlier

there were 1.13 million people who were not looking for work because they had retired, 72,000 fewer than for a year earlier

Figure 15 shows the four largest categories of economic inactivity for the last five years. As shown in Figure 15, the number of people younger than 65 years in the retired category has fallen by 265,000 over the five-year period from February to April 2013 to February to April 2018. This reflects ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65 years.

12. Young people in the labour market

Things you need to know about young people in the labour market

This section looks at people aged from 16 to 24 years. It is a common misconception that all people in full-time education are classified as economically inactive. This is not the case as people in full-time education are included in the employment estimates if they have a part-time job and are included in the unemployment estimates if they are seeking part-time work.

Commentary

For February to April 2018, for people aged from 16 to 24 years, there were:

3.87 million people in work (including 863,000 full-time students with part-time jobs)

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

Notes:

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Figure 17 shows how the latest estimates, for February to April 2018, for employment, unemployment and economic inactivity for people aged from 16 to 24 years compare with the previous quarter (November 2017 to January 2018) and the previous year (February to April 2017). The chart shows that, while the overall UK household population is increasing, it is falling for those aged from 16 to 24 years.

Figure 17: Quarterly and annual changes in the number of young people (aged 16 to 24 years) in the UK labour market, seasonally adjusted

Source: Labour Force Survey, Office for National Statistics

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For February to April 2018, the unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds was 11.9%, lower than for a year earlier (12.5%).

The unemployment rate for those aged from 16 to 24 years has been consistently higher than that for older age groups. Since comparable records began in 1992:

the lowest youth unemployment rate was 11.6% for March to May 2001

the highest youth unemployment rate was 22.5% for late 2011

Between March to May 1992 (when comparable records began) and February to April 2018, the proportion of people aged from 16 to 24 years who were in full-time education increased substantially from 26.2% to 43.5%. This increase in the number of young people going into full-time education has reduced the size of the economically active population (those in work plus those seeking and available to work) and therefore increased the unemployment rate (because the unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed).

Where to find data about young people in the labour market

Estimates for young people in the labour market are available at Table 12 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at dataset A06 SA.

Where to find more information about young people in the labour market

13. Redundancies

Things you need to know about redundancies

The redundancies estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews.

Commentary

For February to April 2018, 107,000 people had become redundant in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews, little changed compared with November 2017 to January 2018 but 18,000 more than for a year earlier.

Figure 18 shows the number of redundancies since comparable records began in 1995.

Figure 19: Number of vacancies in the UK, seasonally adjusted

April to June 2001 to March to May 2018

Source: Vacancy Survey, Office for National Statistics

Notes:

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There were 727,000 job vacancies in the services sectors for March to May 2018, accounting for 88.9% of all vacancies. Looking at services in more detail, the sectors with the largest number of job vacancies were wholesaling, retailing and repair of motor vehicles (133,000) and human health and social work (130,000).

There were 2.7 job vacancies per 100 filled employee jobs for March to May 2018. The industrial sector showing the largest vacancy rate was accommodation and food service activities (4.0 vacancies per 100 filled employee jobs). The industrial sectors showing the smallest vacancy rates were construction, and public administration and defence (both 1.6 vacancies per 100 filled employee jobs).

Where to find data about vacancies

Vacancies estimates are available at Tables 19, 20 and 21 of the PDF version of this statistical bulletin and at datasets VACS01, VACS02 and VACS03.

15. Future publication dates

Publication dates up to the end of 2019 are:

17 July 2018 14 August 2018 11 September 2018 16 October 2018 13 November 2018 11 December 2018 22 January 2019 19 February 2019 19 March 2019 16 April 2019 14 May 2019 11 June 2019 16 July 2019 13 August 2019 10 September 2019 15 October 2019 12 November 2019 17 December 2019

17. Quality and Methodology

Revisions

Estimates for the most recent time periods are subject to revision due to the receipt of late and corrected responses to business surveys and revisions to seasonal adjustment factors which are re-estimated every month. Estimates are subject to longer run revisions, on an annual basis, resulting from reviews of the seasonal adjustment process. Estimates derived from the Labour Force Survey (a survey of households) are usually only revised once a year. Revisions to estimates derived from other sources are usually minor and are commented on in the statistical bulletin if this is not the case. Further information is available in the labour market statistics revisions policy.

One indication of the reliability of the main indicators in this statistical bulletin can be obtained by monitoring the size of revisions. Datasets EMP05, UNEM04 and JOBS06 record the size and pattern of revisions over the last five years. These indicators only report summary measures for revisions. The revised data itself may be subject to sampling or other sources of error. Our standard presentation is to show five years worth of revisions (60 observations for a monthly series, 20 for a quarterly series).

Accuracy of the statistics: estimating and reporting uncertainty

Most of the figures in this statistical bulletin come from surveys of households or businesses. Surveys gather information from a sample rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to allow for this, and to be as accurate as possible given practical limitations such as time and cost constraints, but results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This means that they are subject to some uncertainty. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons.

There is a trade-off between sample size and sampling variability. As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. What this means in practice is that estimates for small groups (for example, unemployed people aged from 16 to 17), which are based on quite small subsets of the Labour Force Survey sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than estimates for larger aggregated groups (for example, the total number of unemployed people).

We can illustrate the level of uncertainty (also called “sampling variability”) around a survey estimate by defining a range around the estimate (known as a “confidence interval”) within which we think the real value that the survey is trying to measure lies. Confidence intervals are typically defined so that we can say we are 95% confident the true value lies within the range – in which case we refer to a “95% confidence interval”.

The number of people unemployed for February to April 2018 was estimated at 1,416,000, with a stated 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 69,000. This means that we are 95% confident that the true number of unemployed people was between 1,347,000 and 1,485,000. Again, the best estimate from the survey was that the number of unemployed people was 1,416,000.

As well as calculating precision measures around the numbers and rates obtained from the survey, we can also calculate them for changes in the numbers. For example, for February to April 2018, the estimated change in the number of unemployed people since November 2017 to January 2018 was a decrease of 38,000, with a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 74,000. This means that we are 95% confident the actual change in unemployment was somewhere between an increase of 36,000 and a fall of 112,000, with the best estimate being a decrease of 38,000. As the estimated decrease in unemployment of 38,000 is smaller than 74,000, the estimated decrease in unemployment is said to be “not statistically significant”.

In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this statistical bulletin between three- month periods are small, and are not usually greater than the level that is explainable by sampling variability. In practice, this means that small, short-term movements in reported rates should be treated as indicative, and considered alongside medium-and long-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in administrative sources, where available, to give a fuller picture.

Where to find data about uncertainty and reliability

The sampling variability of the three-month average vacancies level is around plus or minus 1.5% of that level.

Sampling variability information for average weekly earnings growth rates are available from the “Sampling Variability” worksheets within datasets EARN01 and EARN03.

Seasonal adjustment and uncertainty

Like many economic indicators, the labour market is affected by factors that tend to occur at around the same time every year; for example, school leavers entering the labour market in July and whether Easter falls in March or April. In order to compare movements other than annual changes in labour market statistics, such as since the previous quarter or since the previous month, the data are seasonally adjusted to remove the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar. All estimates discussed in this statistical bulletin are seasonally adjusted except where otherwise stated. While seasonal adjustment is essential to allow for robust comparisons through time, it is not possible to estimate uncertainty measures for the seasonally adjusted series.

Quality and Methodology Information reports

The Quality and Methodology Information reports contain important information on:

the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data