Stats for Mr. Simmons: The Bad Coaching Index

A response to Bill Simmons,
ESPN's "The Sports Guy"

We get lots of great requests to produce original statistics governing all kinds of the finer points relating to NBA teams and players. While sadly we don't get around to cranking out the numbers for many of these suggestions, the Jan 12th, 2006 column by Bill Simmons, aka The Sports Guy, caught our eye.

In it, Bill discusses his theory that Doc Rivers is a lousy coach for the Celtics, and that Boston would be better served by getting a new coach than trading away their best player Paul Pierce. Indeed, he states:

Somebody on this planet needs to come up with stats to determine things like "double-digit leads blown in the fourth quarter," "crunch-time field goal percentage," "24-second violations in the fourth quarter," "botched two-for-one possessions at the end of a quarter," "number of games in which your coach accidentally ran out of timeouts" and "number of times your final play of the quarter caused your fans to scream obscenities and throw a remote control." If these stats existed, the 2005-06 Boston Celtics would be seen in an entirely different light. I promise you.

Well, when it comes to NBA statistics, we've got game.

1) Blown Leads/Comebacks

If you're going to look at how often teams blow fourth quarter (and overtime) leads, it's only fair to examine how often they record comebacks as well. Additionally you want to factor in how often a team has a lead/deficit, since if you're almost always behind you won't have many chances to choke!

2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th

1+ Point

4+ Point

8+ Point

% Based

Team

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

Come Backs

Blown Leads

Atlanta

5

10

3

6

2

4

17%

53%

Boston

6

9

3

4

2

1

22%

39%

Charlotte

4

10

3

3

2

2

15%

48%

Chicago

6

7

4

3

3

2

23%

32%

Cleveland

8

3

5

2

2

0

40%

13%

Dallas

8

6

5

5

4

1

44%

19%

Denver

6

11

2

8

0

2

25%

38%

Detroit

7

3

5

2

1

2

58%

10%

Golden State

6

4

3

2

2

1

25%

19%

Houston

4

7

4

6

2

2

15%

37%

Indiana

3

4

0

3

0

2

18%

17%

L.A. Clippers

5

3

4

3

3

0

26%

14%

L.A. Lakers

6

6

4

4

1

2

26%

25%

Memphis

3

3

2

2

0

1

21%

12%

Miami

5

5

3

3

1

2

25%

19%

Milwaukee

10

4

6

2

4

0

40%

18%

Minnesota

4

8

4

6

2

1

19%

33%

New Jersey

6

0

2

0

1

0

32%

0%

New Orleans

5

5

5

3

2

2

21%

28%

New York

6

7

3

3

1

1

22%

37%

Orlando

2

6

1

1

0

0

9%

32%

Philadelphia

4

9

2

7

0

5

18%

35%

Phoenix

8

6

4

5

2

2

40%

21%

Portland

6

5

5

2

2

1

20%

31%

Sacramento

5

6

2

1

1

1

20%

30%

San Antonio

5

3

3

1

0

0

38%

10%

Seattle

5

6

2

3

0

2

20%

29%

Toronto

8

7

5

5

3

3

25%

37%

Utah

9

3

4

1

1

1

35%

14%

Washington

8

7

2

4

1

2

30%

33%

How to read this table: the numbers represent the number of comeback wins and blown lead losses for each team based on the margin level (eg 8+ point comebacks represent games where the team came back to win after being down by 8+ points at some point during the 4th quarter or overtime). The "% Based" numbers show how often a team came back to win as an expression of comeback wins/total games with a 4th qtr deficit, and similarly with blowing a lead and losing.

So this season the Celtics have had more blown leads than comeback wins, and their nine total blown leads is tied for 4th worst in the NBA (Denver has blown the most leads with 11 losses where they were ahead at some point in the fourth quarter/overtime). On a percentage basis, the Celtics are third worst in the league, having lost 39% of games where they had a lead at some point in the fourth quarter on.

New Jersey meanwhile has yet to blow a lead late, while Milwaukee have been the comeback kings with ten victories where they trailed in the later stages. The worst offenders for blowing big leads would appear to be the Sixers, who have let the other team win five times already when Philadelphia led by 8+ points at some point in the final quarter!

These are very small samples though, so let's do the same exercise for last year:

2004-05 Regular Season

1+ Point

4+ Point

8+ Point

% Based

Team

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

ComeBacks

BlownLeads

Come Backs

Blown Leads

Atlanta

7

18

5

12

2

2

9%

58%

Boston

25

16

12

13

6

5

40%

26%

Charlotte

8

20

3

12

2

5

11%

53%

Chicago

19

14

8

9

3

3

35%

23%

Cleveland

9

13

7

7

4

1

18%

24%

Dallas

17

8

9

5

4

1

41%

12%

Denver

17

9

12

7

6

0

34%

16%

Detroit

16

11

12

6

2

2

36%

17%

Golden State

12

15

7

10

0

2

20%

31%

Houston

14

13

6

7

4

6

31%

20%

Indiana

18

13

13

9

2

2

32%

23%

L.A. Clippers

9

22

6

12

2

4

17%

37%

L.A. Lakers

18

17

11

9

5

2

27%

33%

Memphis

15

12

10

7

1

4

29%

21%

Miami

16

11

10

7

3

1

41%

16%

Milwaukee

11

19

8

12

3

4

17%

39%

Minnesota

15

14

12

6

2

1

28%

24%

New Jersey

13

11

8

8

1

3

25%

21%

New Orleans

7

23

4

12

1

4

10%

56%

New York

12

22

7

13

3

5

20%

40%

Orlando

16

14

7

8

1

2

26%

28%

Philadelphia

20

16

15

13

3

5

34%

27%

Phoenix

18

10

12

9

3

4

47%

14%

Portland

12

17

6

6

1

0

18%

39%

Sacramento

18

12

12

9

4

4

36%

19%

San Antonio

12

11

10

5

5

3

34%

16%

Seattle

18

9

9

4

2

3

38%

15%

Toronto

14

20

13

13

3

2

22%

38%

Utah

12

18

5

11

3

4

18%

41%

Washington

25

15

15

13

8

5

40%

25%

It was a different story for Doc and the Celtics in 04-05 as they recorded comebacks 40% of the time they were behind, while only blowing leads 26% of the time. Their comeback win% was tied for 4th best in the NBA. How much responsibility should the coach bear for these stats? We'll let you decide.

Team Crunch Time Stats

We have published "clutch" stats for players since day one of this site (eg see Kobe Bryant in the clutch), but defining what you mean by clutch time is one of the keys.

Originally our definition was 4th quarter on when neither team was ahead by more than five points, but Rick Barry convinced us to change that to "last five minutes of the fourth quarter/overtime" to focus on the real game deciding minutes. So that's what we will use here to examine Bill's crunch time shooting question.

On OFFENSE2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th
Last five minutes of 4th Quarter/Overtime where neither team is ahead by more than five points

Team

FG

eFG

Ast'd

Blk'd

Close

FT

OReb

T/O

Rating*

New Jersey

.520

.573

36%

7%

47%

.828

45%

9%

144.1

Milwaukee

.479

.526

24%

5%

41%

.728

32%

8%

128.2

Utah

.422

.482

26%

1%

30%

.773

39%

12%

125.4

Memphis

.469

.526

26%

10%

37%

.833

28%

13%

124.4

Golden State

.472

.556

25%

5%

30%

.750

23%

10%

123.8

Cleveland

.457

.505

22%

7%

47%

.780

32%

12%

123.7

L.A. Clippers

.495

.540

30%

6%

21%

.821

26%

10%

122.4

Detroit

.406

.444

20%

5%

26%

.737

48%

11%

122.1

Denver

.453

.483

28%

7%

41%

.807

36%

14%

119.6

Dallas

.411

.444

17%

8%

31%

.706

34%

6%

118.4

Seattle

.389

.437

21%

0%

27%

.817

44%

18%

114.3

New Orleans

.354

.367

18%

9%

34%

.803

32%

8%

113.3

Sacramento

.400

.453

31%

7%

23%

.800

33%

12%

112.4

NBA Average

.414

.454

22%

6%

33%

.760

33%

12%

112.3

L.A. Lakers

.410

.452

19%

6%

30%

.733

32%

10%

112.1

Phoenix

.429

.480

25%

4%

26%

.824

30%

12%

111.5

New York

.398

.410

11%

5%

45%

.692

39%

11%

111.4

Chicago

.431

.474

23%

8%

34%

.753

27%

11%

111.2

Houston

.413

.468

22%

6%

35%

.873

27%

15%

109.5

Atlanta

.462

.508

24%

5%

32%

.679

35%

18%

109.1

Orlando

.367

.405

15%

6%

39%

.813

39%

12%

108.4

Toronto

.419

.473

22%

7%

30%

.763

36%

18%

106.9

Boston

.375

.408

19%

11%

36%

.802

32%

15%

104.8

Minnesota

.412

.441

22%

7%

33%

.674

37%

13%

103.4

Miami

.391

.435

22%

5%

28%

.604

36%

14%

102.4

Washington

.374

.409

16%

4%

32%

.719

28%

12%

102.0

Indiana

.338

.368

21%

4%

28%

.712

32%

14%

100.0

San Antonio

.392

.418

17%

7%

31%

.736

24%

13%

100.0

Charlotte

.376

.387

19%

6%

30%

.714

35%

11%

96.5

Portland

.371

.387

20%

10%

40%

.761

34%

16%

95.5

Philadelphia

.336

.359

17%

8%

34%

.750

22%

12%

92.0

*Rating = Points per 100 Possessions

Yes, the Celtics crunch time offense has been below average, with a poor field goal percentage, a high turnover rate, and the league's highest rate of getting their shots blocked!

Ah, but offense is only half the story, so let's complete the picture:

On DEFENSE2005-06 Season thru Jan. 12th
Last five minutes of 4th Quarter/Overtime where neither team is ahead by more than five points

Team

FG

eFG

Ast'd

Blk'd

Close

FT

OReb

T/O

Rating*

San Antonio

.310

.323

19%

6%

30%

.635

32%

8%

86.2

Milwaukee

.350

.385

15%

7%

27%

.692

17%

9%

90.6

Chicago

.375

.401

21%

4%

35%

.831

26%

17%

96.6

New Jersey

.381

.421

19%

3%

33%

.795

28%

17%

102.3

Sacramento

.397

.436

23%

4%

36%

.838

23%

12%

105.3

L.A. Clippers

.356

.377

20%

10%

36%

.741

36%

8%

105.7

Dallas

.372

.410

15%

10%

31%

.810

33%

11%

106.1

Charlotte

.386

.433

21%

9%

28%

.721

37%

16%

106.2

Memphis

.390

.425

19%

6%

30%

.754

40%

15%

106.7

Detroit

.409

.436

16%

7%

35%

.824

35%

16%

107.0

Phoenix

.424

.456

18%

4%

40%

.649

33%

14%

108.0

Washington

.414

.454

21%

6%

32%

.667

37%

14%

108.0

Boston

.452

.473

20%

5%

37%

.770

28%

17%

109.0

Portland

.366

.403

20%

7%

28%

.756

33%

9%

109.9

Utah

.362

.396

21%

12%

32%

.725

38%

8%

110.3

Minnesota

.433

.476

26%

9%

40%

.721

34%

14%

110.4

Golden State

.426

.452

23%

6%

36%

.794

41%

18%

111.2

Toronto

.454

.500

26%

4%

36%

.786

34%

17%

111.4

Indiana

.444

.493

22%

10%

31%

.698

26%

14%

112.2

Atlanta

.423

.459

26%

7%

38%

.761

31%

14%

113.7

Miami

.451

.500

26%

6%

34%

.817

34%

14%

120.3

Seattle

.410

.475

24%

6%

31%

.815

40%

13%

120.5

New York

.415

.483

20%

3%

26%

.805

29%

10%

120.9

L.A. Lakers

.450

.500

25%

5%

37%

.698

38%

10%

121.0

Orlando

.500

.542

22%

4%

38%

.674

27%

9%

121.1

Philadelphia

.432

.460

18%

6%

39%

.794

36%

9%

122.1

New Orleans

.456

.524

22%

4%

33%

.821

39%

11%

124.8

Cleveland

.440

.470

19%

3%

33%

.870

29%

5%

125.9

Denver

.473

.527

30%

7%

29%

.817

37%

9%

126.9

Houston

.450

.484

30%

3%

23%

.792

38%

10%

127.3

On defense the Celtics have a more credible performance in crunch time, forcing a high number of turnovers, and limiting second chances on the offensive glass. Unfortunately for Boston, they have also allowed a relatively high field goal percentage, but on the plus side they don't send their opponents to the free throw line that often.

The surprise clutch team must be the Milwaukee Bucks -- ranking #2 on offense, and #2 on defense. Of course, one wonders if they can keep that pace up.

Other "Bad Coaching Index" Numbers

Bill has a few other off the wall 'fun' numbers to look at. It turns out though that Boston hasn't committed a particularly high number of 24-second violations in the fourth quarter, and actually their opponents have committed more. In terms of the botched '2 for 1' opportunities that's a good subject to bring up, but something we will address shortly in another article. Finally we're still working on a way to filter the databases for 'accidentally running out of timeouts' and 'causing fans to throw remotes' -- we'll just take Mr. Simmons' word that Doc has been guilty of a fair amount of that.

Is Doc a bad coach? We won't answer that, but one thing we would agree with is that trading Paul Pierce for anything less than fair value would be a big, big mistake: