Tuesday, November 01, 2011

Why this QUIET early November pattern scares me

Early November "milder" periods like the one we are entering in today are not that unusual. Over the last 5 Novembers, only in 2008 have we received more than 2 inches of snow during the month so "milder" or "not so cold" November periods happen and happen quite frequently.

That said, it is these stretches of 50 and 60 degree days with the lack of strong storms across Ohio that have me on guard for what is to come. Let me illustrate why by looking at the long range computer projections for next week.

This first map is for this upcoming Saturday. Notice the "L" or LOW out west and the "bubble" or ridge over Ohio. For us, this means temps above normal with little rain or snow. This also signifies a deepening "trough" out west which allows these "LOWS" to grow and strengthen. All signs of the changing season from late fall to early winter. The trough out west are much DEEPER and STRONGER than what they were in September.

By Tuesday of next week, watch that "L" out west.Its gets "gobbled up" as it hits the Great Lakes only to be replaced by the next one which slides into Arizona. Yet here in Ohio, we stay somewhat dry with above normal temps. More importantly, notice that none of these "Ls" are close to Ohio. The eastern "ridge" of dry air stays strong.

By next week the 10th, the eastern ridge stays mostly intact while the lows out west spin themselves out before reaching Ohio. If this projection verifies, the chances of seeing any lake effect snow will be very slim.

By the the 13th through the 15th, the ridge breaks down, the "LOWS" track across the Great Lakes and Ohio which should allow our first lake effect snow event. This is the Sunday (Nov 13th) projection...

...Now the 15th of November.

Now look at last year at this time. The "L" was right over Ohio producing our first round of early November snow.

The bottom line is that this "dry and somewhat milder" pattern scares me because the stronger the troughs out west, the stronger the colder air behind them. The trough will eventually drift east being our first lake effect snow of the season by Thanksgiving!