Stats suggest Raiders will get by without Dugan

While the axing of Josh Dugan might appear to dent the premiership chances of the Canberra Raiders, Grandstand stats analyst Tim Gore assures fans the loss may not be as big as it seems.

At first glance a Canberra fan could be forgiven for thinking it was an overreaction on the part of the Raiders administration to tear up Josh Dugan's contract.

Although there were a number of transgressions and unsavoury incidents, surely the home-grown product was too valuable to the Raiders for them not to try to rehabilitate him?

Dugan was reported to earn about $650,000 a year after negotiating a new contract through to 2014, but statistically is he worth it?

Games played

Dugan has played 70 matches out of a possible 96 games for the Raiders since his debut in round for of 2009, meaning he missed 27 per cent of the side's matches - an uncomfortably high figure for a marquee player.

For the last four seasons Dugan averaged almost six games a season out injured.

One absence was due to his sole 2011 State of Origin appearance for the Blues, but injury has plagued Dugan's Canberra career.

His rib injury from the Penrtih game last Sunday followed several injuries in his fledgling NRL career. Last year he missed nine games with ankle and shoulder injuries.

In 2011, after making an impressive Origin debut he missed the rest of the series and four Raiders' games with an ankle injury. Later that year he was also troubled with a groin strain.

2012 contribution

Apart from the nine matches he missed last year, Dugan's stats actually make for fairly good reading:

144 metres per game

8 tries

8 line breaks

3 line break assists

6 try assists

100 tackle breaks (6.5 average)

Of the 15 matches he played last season the Raiders won nine of them. That is a 60 per cent win ratio.

The Raiders overall had a 60 per cent win ratio. So Dugan would seem to have been beneficial to the team - when he actually made the field of course.

The Reece Robinson option

The Raiders have a readymade replacement in Reece Robinson. Robinson only missed two games last season injured. His stats for 2012 also look pretty good:

130 metres per game

16 tries

16 line breaks

7 line break assists

6 try assists

96 tackle breaks (4 average)

Apart from the average metres, his stats paint a picture of a better finisher and a better team player.

But Robinson's best stats have been when he has switched from the wing to full-back to cover for the unavailable Dugan.

For those eight matches Robinsons stats look like this:

187.5 metres a game

11 tries

6 line breaks

5 line break assists

4 try assists

58 tackle breaks (7 average)

Further, Robinson's runs with the ball go up from 12 per game to 17 per game, better than Dugan's 14.

Robinson also averages just under half an error per game, whereas Dugan averaged just under 1.5 errors per game. Robinson also misses one fewer tackle a match than Dugan did.

And with Dugan out and Robinson playing fullback, the Raiders' win rate rose to 62.5 per cent.

However, all this really suggests though is that Robinson is very well suited to playing fullback; it does not mean that Josh Dugan was not valuable.

But was Dugan worth it?

The value of a player must be looked at in the overall and long-term picture.

The word was that Dugan's team-mates had had enough of his alleged bad attitude. The Raiders needs to retain rising talents Edrick Lee, Jack Wighton, Tony Milford, Matt McIlwrick and Mitch Cornish - and maturing players like Robinson, Josh McCrone and Sam Williams.

The idea of paying 15 per cent of your salary cap to just one troublesome and injury-prone player must have just started to look like a bad idea.

Especially if he just would not play by the rules and there was also a player in the wings who missed virtually no games, boasted better stats, and helped the team to win more matches.