SCIENCE: Michigan 2014 CFB champions

As we approach the 2014 season, there is a palpable sense of excitement mixed with uncertainty among the mgoblog faithful. The D seems to be all the way back and there are some tantalizing pieces on offense...and yet, can we bring ourselves to believe in love again after having been hurt so many times before?

Take courage, my friends. This is not a year to sow. It is a year to reap.

SCIENCE says that Michigan will shock the world and win the first post-BCS era college football title this season and SCIENCE CAN NEVER LIE.

Consider the following parallels between this team and another team from our glorious past:

*The '14 team is not on anyone's radar as a potential national champion. Neither was the '97 team.

*The '14 is coming off 5 and 6 loss seasons. The '97 team was coming off consecutive 4 loss seasons.

*The '14 team finished 5th in the Leaders Division. The '97 team finished 5th in the Big Ten.

*The '14 team is coming off bowl losses in consecutive seasons, to teams from the SEC (South Carolina) and Big 12 (Kansas State). The '97 team was also coming off bowl losses in consecutive years, to teams from the Big 12 (Texas A&M) and SEC (Alabama).

*The '14 team has a lot of questions on OL - as did the '97 team, on which the OL featured 1 returning starter and two converted DL.

*The '14 team starts a 5th year senior QB. The '97 team also started a 5th year senior QB.

*The '97 team had a functional, good-enough offense and an aggressive, overwhelming defense that blitzed from everywhere. The '14 team looks like it could be shaping up in an eerily similar way.

*The '97 season opener featured a return visit to Michigan Stadium by Colorado, a bad-memory team that on its previous trip had inflicted upon Michigan and its fans one of their most devastating losses ever. The game turned out to be 1) a blowout Michigan win, 2) a coming-out party for Charles Woodson & Co., and 3) something of an exorcism. The '14 season opener vs App State offers the possibility of history repeating itself on all three points.

But here is where it gets really interesting...

*Lloyd Carr, the '97 HC, had been the DB's coach and then DC at Michigan under Bo, one of the best coaches in school history. Brady Hoke, the '14 HC, was the DL coach at Michigan under Lloyd Carr, also one of the best coaches in school history.

*The '97 QB, Brian Griese, wore the number 14, CLEARLY pointing ahead to the glory of the '14 team. The '14 QB, Devin Gardner, wears the number 98, MORE THAN CLEARLY pointing back to the glory of the '97 team, which played in the '98 Rose Bowl. Also, importantly: add the digits of Gardner's number and what do you get? 17 - the number of years that have passed since the '97 season.

COULD IT ALL BE JUST A SERIES OF UNCONNECTED COINCIDENCES?

I don't think so.

Not when you take into account the last and most pertinent piece of information, which binds it all together:

The '97 team's national title was the last of the pre-BCS era. This year's national title winner will be the first of the post-BCS era. That's right: we are looking at the opportunity for Michigan to have "bookend" national titles on either side of the BCS era.

My friends, I know how unlikely it all may seem at this moment. However I have personally looked at the data from every possible angle again and again, and it comes out the same way every time: as improbable as it may appear to be, SCIENCE seems to indicate that there is glory in store for Michigan football in 2014.

Your avatar is one of my favorite characters of all time. Such a great cast on that show. Just watched some earlier today. "Who wants birthday cake?" We do!!! "We ain't got none. We got cheese. Govmnt cheese. Now who wants to cut the cheese?"

The statistics nerd inside of me would like to say that we computed the observed values and dervied the distribution of our test statistic, and it turns out that p is less than the given significance, thus the null hypothesis - that Michigan would NOT win the championship - can be successfully rejected in this particular study.

I trust you as far as I can throw you. Which isn't far seeing as I don't know where you live and even if I did know, it'd probably be an unreasonable distance for me to travel to you at this juncture in my life, and even if it was a reasonable distance, it still probably wouldn't be far, as I am a little out of shape and throwing another human being (outside of jazz from fresh prince) is probably not easy, especially if you didn't want to be thrown, which I am making the assumption you wouldn't want to be

"John the Savage" is my favorite character from my favorite novel. I, myself, am not too savage. I'm here on Friday night grinding out some PS4 Diablo 3, so that's definitely something John would be none too proud of.

Regardless, it's true that I earn my keep currently as a neuroscientist, and it is also true that the thrust of the OP here is pure superstition, which is exactly what science is supposed to correct! So it does kind of irk me. But, cheers to all of Mgoblog regardless. I'm as pumped for noon as the rest of you. And now, back to my monk..

Coming off a disappointing 7-6 season and BWW Bowl appearance (although MSU went in 6-6 and won). Offense was suspect in '12 but found a way to be more productive in '13. Defense rounded into shape and came into their own, etc. UM defense seems to have the makings of something special in '14. Hate to use them as an example but my point is, there's NO REASON why Michigan couldn't have a similar turnaround from the B-Dub bowl to the Rose Bowl (or wherever the B1G championship takes us). I mean seriously, the offensive line woes aside, why couldn't this happen?

Ok, maybe the road schedule.

And I know many will respond how Sparty got so lucky but that's part of my question. Why couldn't we get a little more luck on our side like those glimpses against Northwestern in '12 and '13, and numerous times in '11?

Not sure if this is creepy, corroborative, nerdy, or all of the above, but we have written similar scientific proofs. During the Lloyd years I used to send an email to friends every year with a similar prediciton for each season. Haven't done one in a long time, but on August 20th I sent the following synopsis of pre-season chatter to a group of friends:

Michigan finished 5th in its Big Ten Division last year.

With our starting QB getting injured in the OSU game and unable to play in the postseason, Michigan’s offense put up a pathetic 14 points in its restaurant-labeled bowl loss; our second consecutive bowl loss and underachieving season.

The media contends our head coach is on “the hot seat”, and this season’s record will determine his job status.

Alumni and fans are also growing tired of the trend of disappointing season after disappointing season. Although beloved in his first year as head coach, the luster has worn off of the no-headset-wearing Michigan Man’s halo. It isn’t just the media who is calling for a change at the top if this season’s record doesn’t improve dramatically. Many Wolverine diehards also believe the head man must do better than a 4 loss season in order to avoid the ax.

The offensive line needs to be retooled this year, including the replacement of our All-American left tackle.

The QB position is well-manned with four capable student-athletes battling for playing time. The “competition” for starter will most certainly go to the 5th year senior QB over younger, but potentially more gifted youngsters.

Fred Jackson looks to deploy a one-two punch at tailback while sprinkling in carries for a third back, although none of Michigan’s runners has proven they possess elite talent.

The Wolverines have a talented corps of receivers, including an All-America candidate junior pass catcher and All Big Ten tight end from last year. An added element of excitement could come in the form of our uber-athletic cornerback taking some snaps with the offense.

Greg Mattison's defense was good last year, but not great. With 8 returning starters, this year’s unit looks to turn up the heat with an aggressive, blitzing, in-your-face identity.

The Wolverines are loaded with talent at the linebacker position, including last year’s team leader in tackles and All Big Ten performer.

The Michigan secondary is recognized as one of the top units in the Big Ten as the Wolverines return three starters, including junior cornerback #2 — a member of the Jim Thorpe Award preseason watch list.

The Wolverine kicking game will get a major overhaul this year as we replace our veteran long snapper, punter, and top 5 all-time point producer placekicker. Last year’s kickoff specialist is expected to take over extra point and field goal duties.

The big story in regards to postseason play is the major change coming to college football, as this year the national champion will not be crowned by the BCS.

Oh, by the way, that was the preseason Wolverine chatter before the 1997 season. Which season did you think I was referring to??? All of these statements happen to be accurate for this year as well.....

my ass. More like witchcraft and sorcery, but I'll take it. There's also that second coming of Charles Woodson thing we've got going on, but I don't think it technically counts because the first coming hasn't made the first leaving yet, so naturally this must be the first coming of something completely new and exciting to maul tresspassers of the secondary and lead the way to glory...or destruction...or continued mediocrity, but dammit! I'm putting my money on GLORY.