Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China’s grain production capability
may not be sustainable even as output increased for seven years,
an agricultural official at the State Council said.

A growing amount of China’s grain is produced in northern
regions where water shortages are worse, Chen Xiwen, the
Cabinet’s vice director of agricultural affairs, wrote in an
article for the Caijing magazine, an excerpt of which was posted
on the website of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences today.

China’s consumption of agricultural products has exceeded
production because soybean imports continue to rise, while the
country also buys vegetable oil, Chen wrote. Using domestic
production, China keeps only a “tightening balance” in rice,
“basically” meets its corn demand and gets a small surplus of
wheat, he said.

The amount of agricultural products China imports would
require more than 600 million mu (40 million hectares) of
overseas arable land, which China doesn’t have, Chen said. This
dependency on imports has made it difficult for the government
to maintain controls on domestic food prices, Chen wrote.

China’s grain output this year may increase by 10 million
tons from a year ago to over 540 million tons, Chen said.