Kim Jong-Un Could Be Losing Control — And That's A Bad Thing

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un’s saber-rattling
rhetoric and threats to restart his nuclear program could be a
rational move to garner more in the way of concessions in the
world community and much-needed political street-credentials
among the populace and troops he commands.

But just how confident can Pentagon officials be about whether
Mr. Kim is a rational actor?

Could he, in fact, be young, reckless, without great political
savvy and in grave danger of making a move that could set off a
chain of events – including an inadvertent war – with dire
consequences?

“We’ve seen some historical trajectory here on
where North
Korea occasionally will go to try to get the attention
of the United States, to try to maneuver
us into some position favorably to them, whether it’s more
assistance or bilateral engagement,” Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said
during a press conference last week.

“But the fact is that this is the wrong way to go. The action
that he’s taken and the actions they’ve taken and the words he’s
used, it is not going to project a more responsible, accountable
relationship.”

That seems evident. But how clear is it that Kim knows what he’s
doing, anyway? And is he, in fact, the one in charge? Or could he
be vying for power with, say, North Korean military
leaders?

On this question, Mr. Hagel appeared, publicly at least, to have
little interest in a North Korean version of Kremlinology. “Well,
he’s the leader,” he said. “I mean, he’s the leader of North
Korea.”

Defense analysts say that there are indeed some hints that Kim
may be losing his hold on the military.

There have been defections of small units of North Korean
soldiers to China – soldiers who were subsequently
turned around and sent back to North Korea, says retired
Brig. Gen. Russell Howard, former
commander of the 1st Special Forces Group, which has
an Asia Focus.

This may seem like a positive development, but it is a problem
because it means that Kim may feel the need to reassert his
control over the military, by beating the war drum and trying to
get his troops to rally around it. The more he needs their
support, the harder he might beat the drum.

The rehabilitation of Kim Young-choi, who was responsible for
sinking the South Korean
Navy ship Cheonan in 2010, which killed 46
seamen, is another clue, says General Howard, who is now the
director of the Terrorism, Research, and Education Program at the
Monterey Institute of International Studies.

It could signal that Kim Jong-un is taking a harder military
line, since Kim Young-choi is also believed to have coordinated
cyberattacks on South Korean firms, as well as an assassination
attempt on a high-ranking North Korean defector.

“It seems that a more aggressive clique now has influence over
Kim,” Howard says.

“Is he in control, is he not in control? There are so many
unknowns here,” Mr. Cha says.

“We don’t know how he views the world, we don’t know how he views
the credibility of his own nuclear arsenal, whether he views the
US and South Korea as paper tigers – we
know none of these things.”

Even though Kim’s current behavior seems like bluster, says Cha,
“The more he does these things, the more worried you get.”

The concern is that as a favored, privileged son, perhaps he
doesn’t realize the seriousness of his actions. “This kid who
they have as a leader now is perhaps starting to believe his own
press,” Howard says.

“I was fairly certain that his father was rational – or at least
had people around him that wouldn’t let him carry out these
threats. His grandfather played it to the hilt successfully,” he
adds. “I just don’t know with this young Kim."

In that case, it may be up to the United States to cool the
rhetoric, which Secretary of State John Kerry and
others have been endeavoring to do. “This is a game of chicken.
You’ve got a car coming head-on at you, and you see the driver of
the oncoming car throw the steering wheel out the window,” says
Patrick Cronin, director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at
the Center for a New American
Security in Washington. “It’s up to you to move.”

On this point, Pentagon officials seem willing to take some
bluster in stride, but also emphasize that they will defend US
interests and allies in the region.

“Well, you all know enough about North Korea. There is
uncertainty in that government and in their leadership and
intentions. But that isn't the issue,” Hagel said in the press
conference.

“The issue is that we have to be prepared to defend our interest
and the allies' interests,” he added.