Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Here were the two write-ups and selections that were sent to clients on Sunday 1/12:

3* Panthers : I would wait to put this in as line currently sits at a Pick, and public is still all over SF so never know - this line may get back up to +2.5 where I would suggest hook to get +3 in what should be a close game. My summary: this line is off IMO, and we have already seen some movement with Carolina money pushing this down towards a pick. I set this # at CAR favored by more than a FG, but figured it would be adjusted some because of the public's love affair with SF - but this was too much of a move. I also typically like to take teams that are seeking revenge in the same season like SF is here, but think Carolina matches up well against SF negating that some. In the first matchup between these teams neither team did much offensively, and there was a 0 TOM - so no impact there obviously. What we did see is Kaepernick under pressure a ton, and he was outplayed by Newton in the Stick - hard to see a scenario where CK outplays Newton in Carolinathis Sunday, especially through the air. Both teams will struggle moving the ball, turnovers will be of the utmost importance (SF is way overdue for a bad TOM game), but I look for the Carolina defense to make a few big plays and be the difference. Also of note is 3rd downs - Carolina's offense ranks 4th while SF's defense is 5th; on flip side SF's offense is 15th while Carolina's defense is 10th - considering both teams are extremely strong on both sides of the ball in first downs rushing (which shows success on early downs as well as physicality picking up short 3rd downs running the ball) expect the QB who plays better to lead his team to the win - both QBs can and will run the rock, who does it better especially on 3rd downs could be the difference. I have the Panthers rated higher in my performance ratings, and the difference in this game will be the Panthers defense vs. the Niners offense.

4* Broncos : I am all over Denver in this game. I set this # above 10 in all my models, but only one of the models shows a variance above 3pts which is the cut-off for showing value. One thing to remember about the earlier meeting between these teams in Denver was both DRC & Welker missed the game for Denver - they will both be back as will Champ Bailey. San Diego's defense is just bad, there arent many ways around that. They are yielding 4.5ypc, 7.2yppa - two areas Denver will take advantage of. Expect a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno setting up passing plays down the field; on flip side the Broncos will stack the box against the Chargers rushing attack and make Rivers beat their man to man coverage - a coverage that will now have DRC and Bailey in there compared to 2nd stringers last time around. SD is easily the least efficient team remaining in the playoffs checking in at just 24th in the NFL in yards per point offensively; Denver is #1 in that area, and doesn't figure to be impacted negatively in any way in this game because they are at home, and have Welker back in the slot. Losing to the Bolts actually helps Denver in this spot as does losing to the Ravens last season - expect Denver to play extremely well.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

I only had a play on one of the two games, but look at my write-up supporting the Patriots that went to my clients:Patriots : I really like the favorite here. Despite the Colts winning last week on a miracle comeback the better team went home, and the Colts continue to get "lucky" winning games they shouldn't....that will be tough sledding in NE this weekend. Both offenses do have an edge so I expect alot of points, but give the edge to NE as they have faced the 2nd toughest schedule of opponent defenses, are at home, and have the better QB - especially in the playoffs. One area defensively NE is solid in is pass defense checking in at #8, and that will be the differenceSaturday night. No team is more efficient in the red zone and goal to go situations than New England, and scoring TDs versus kicking FGs will be key. Indianapolis has not performed well in my ratings again this season, was blown out in the KC game according to my ratings, continues to have poor TOM but wins games - hard to figure out. But in this spot I feel the Patriots will really have alot of success running the ball with Blount against the Colts 25th ranked rush defense (which the Chiefs would have done last week and advanced had Charles not been injured early), setting up the play action pass...but make no mistake, this will be a grind it out affair for the Pats probably running the ball 30+ times. New England wins and covers in a high scoring shootout.Not bad. Will post Sunday's writeups once games are over, win or lose.

Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:

HOME

ROAD

TEAM

Power Rating

Power Rating

Minnesota

115.5

113.0

Indiana

117.1

112.6

Toronto

113.5

111.5

Portland

114.8

111.3

LA Clippers

114.9

110.9

Oklahoma City

114.9

110.9

Houston

113.8

110.3

San Antonio

113.6

110.1

Charlotte

111.1

109.1

Denver

111.5

109.0

Memphis

110.5

108.5

Sacramento

110.5

108.5

Chicago

110.8

108.3

Golden State

111.8

108.3

Miami

112.3

108.3

Atlanta

111.2

107.7

Washington

109.7

107.7

Phoenix

110.8

107.3

New Orleans

109.9

106.9

Cleveland

108.5

106.0

Brooklyn

108.4

105.9

Detroit

107.3

105.3

Orlando

107.2

105.2

Dallas

107.8

104.8

New York

106.8

104.8

LA Lakers

104.5

102.5

Boston

104.3

102.3

Philadelphia

103.4

101.4

Utah

103.3

101.3

Milwaukee

103.0

101.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Let’s
examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can
identify some teams to target – since we commenced this analysis two weeks ago
these plays have gone 5-0:

Washington @
Indiana (-9): my power ratings suggest this # should be IND -9.5, right
on target.

Detroit (-2.5) @
Philadelphia: my power ratings suggest this # should be DET -2, right on
target.

Houston (-3) @
Atlanta: my power ratings suggest this # should be ATL -1, so we have
value on the Hawks tonight. Keep in mind
however that according to my performance ratings above the Hawks fell the
furthest of any NBA team in the last week, suggesting they are not playing
solid basketball right now.

Phoenix @ Memphis
(-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MEM -3, right on
target.

Charlotte @
Minnesota (-9.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MIN -6.5
leaving it on the fringe of a value play.
Considering how big this line is, and how well Charlotte rates in my
performance ratings above I will officially NOT call this a value play (also
considering I prefer to have a greater than 3pt variance between line & my
ratings; I also expect this # to drop as the day goes on).

Dallas (-2) @ New
Orleans: my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -5, suggesting a
lot of value on Pelicans here. Also
considering the Mavericks are a bear team, and the fact New Orleans rates
higher than Dallas, is at home, and is listed as an underdog here and we are
backing the Pelicans.

Miami (-5) @
Brooklyn: my power ratings suggest this # should be a Pick so we have a
lot of value on the Nets here. But with
emotional levels being so key when handicapping any nightly sports, and the Heat
are coming off a loss last night, it’s tough to back the underachieving Nets in
this spot.

Chicago (-4) @
Milwaukee: my power ratings suggest this # should be CHI -5, right on
target.

Cleveland @ Utah
(-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be CLE -2.5 so we have
5pts of value on the Cavaliers here.
Keep an eye on injuries in this game before making a final decision.

Orlando @
Sacramento (-7.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be SAC -5.5,
right on target.

Boston @ Golden
State (-11.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be GS -9.5, right
on target.

LA Lakers @ LA
Clippers (-11): my power ratings suggest this # should be LAC -12.5,
right on target.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:

Current Wins

ATS Wins

Projected Wins

TEAM

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

Wins

RANK

Minnesota

17

13

19

8

50.42

7

Indiana

28

1

23

2

58.80

1

Toronto

17

13

20

5

48.60

10

Portland

27

3

21

4

48.56

11

LA Clippers

25

6

22

3

53.50

4

Oklahoma City

27

3

19

8

53.03

5

Houston

23

8

18

13

47.04

12

San Antonio

28

1

19

8

58.75

2

Charlotte

15

16

20

5

36.20

20

Denver

18

12

16

17

43.24

14

Memphis

15

16

14

25

42.36

15

Sacramento

11

28

13

28

32.73

22

Chicago

15

16

14

25

33.98

21

Golden State

24

7

18

13

51.89

6

Miami

27

3

16

17

57.92

3

Atlanta

19

11

20

5

41.01

17

Washington

16

15

19

8

40.46

18

Phoenix

21

9

24

1

49.18

8

New Orleans

15

16

13

28

42.19

16

Cleveland

12

25

16

17

30.99

24

Brooklyn

14

20

16

17

28.75

26

Detroit

14

20

14

25

40.31

19

Orlando

10

29

15

22

29.38

25

Dallas

20

10

19

8

48.74

9

New York

13

23

15

22

43.90

13

LA Lakers

14

20

18

13

21.61

28

Boston

13

23

17

16

31.13

23

Philadelphia

12

25

15

22

22.11

27

Utah

12

25

16

17

20.13

29

Milwaukee

7

30

12

30

19.85

30

Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire
matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance
Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top nine teams in performance are
all within the top 8 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Houston – keep an eye on
the Rockets making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play. Last week the only outlier we mentioned were
the Raptors, whom we expected to go on a successful ATS run – they have now won
8 straight games against the #.

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 01/02 the
playoffs would set up like this:

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.