Stuff

A new Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer shows Labour back in the lead – the topline figures with changes from MORI’s last poll (conducted for the Sun a fortnight ago) are CON 40%(-1), LAB 41%(+3), LDEM 13%(+2).

Unlike YouGov’s poll published on Friday (although actually conducted slightly later than this one) the poll suggests that Labour have begun to recover slightly from their position earlier this month. With the present erractic position in the polls though it is hard to say for sure – we will have another two polls in the week from ICM and ComRes which may shed some light, but it looks as though we can conclude little other than that the two main parties are close to one another in the high thirties and low fourties, with the leaderless Liberal Democrats languishing in the low teens. All depends on what happens when they get a new leader – whether they recover support and, if so, at whose expense?

63 Responses to “Labour back ahead with MORI”

“WMA is 40:39:12 but with Brown’s personal ratings sinking like a stone, his credibility severely dented, and Labour having been transformed into a one-man party under the Supreme Leader it can only be a matter of time before the party ratings follow. ”

Or,alternatively, once the media storm about the election that never was fades from a fickle public’s mind (I mean, we are talking about an on/off election, not Black Wednesday) and people again start to concentrate on what matters to them; their money, chances of earning more money or losing their job and house, then Brown will establish a steady and growing lead over himself and Cameron.Given that the public are telling pollsters they don’t know what Cameron stands for this isn’t a difficult task.

Of course you could be correct in your assumptions.Although it’s always a mistake to take your cue from the Westminster dominated blogosphere, as someone has already pointed out, Joe Public couldn’t give a monkey’s about froth when they go into a ballot box and vote on matters that could adversely affect their future.It’s a lesson I learned well in 87 and 92 as Labour polling station number cruncher.

I’d imagine it would take something pretty seismic to remove a sitting government with a 66 seat majority and a newish leader.I don’t think we’ve seen any evidence of the large and constant opposition opinion poll leads required as yet.

Just seen that Electoral Calculus have changed their model to deal with the unrealistic Liberal outcomes on their early October run. Having looked at the EC current prediction and tried out one or two options of my own it does look better.

One swallow doesn’t make a spring. This poll needs to be treated with a sea of salt. We are in tenuous territory nowadays. We shall swing right into the 08s and Leap Year! Which party will leap longest?

It would be difficult for Conservatives and Labour to achieve 40 per cent at the same time because of the number of smaller parties which are all doing reasonably well – SNP, Greens, BNP, and possible Pl C and UKIP.
This is likely to account for about 8 per cent within Great Britain, and could rise to around 10pc.

Both parties reached 78pc within GB in 1992 – that is a fairly high figure for the number of parties we have nowadays. One also should remember the Liberals only contested about 250 seats in 1970 and left about 100 uncontested even in February 1974. If they had fought a full slate in Feb 74 their national vote would probably have been about 24pc rather than just under 20pc.

The assumption that you are both making is that things continue on trend and that there is a trend. I am not saying your wrong, but it is possible that voters may go back to the big two, in a close winner takes all presidential style election.

There seems to be an acceptance that turnout is falling and that the strength of the two main parties is diminishing, but it could be a blip as opposed to a trend.

There is strong evidence that peoples party allegiences are weakening and they are more inclined to switch parties or try something different, but that in no way implies that it’s a one way street.

It’s not unconceivable that a population with less fixed views might choose in an election to back the big two. Having moved to the SNP/UKIP/BNP/Greens in the past they could make an equally rational (for them) choice to move back.

I remember a decade or so there was a lot of talk in the US with the likes of Ross Perot about the emergence of a challenge to the Democrats and Republicans from Independants and third parties, but what some thought was a trend turned out to be a flash in the pan.

If I had to put money on it I’d agree with you, but we shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a sea change for this election anyway.

If it is about a change in governement where either could win a lot of people might want to use there vote to make an impact.

We political anoraks tend to make one very bad assumption which is that the majority of voters think about politics as or nearly as often as we do . Unfortunately this is very untrue , unless they are seriously upset by a particular issue , they rarely give a thought to politicsfromday to day . This is why an opinion pollster getting through to anapathetic voter in the middle of changeing baby’s nappy or watching Coronation Street will get a top of the head answer to who they will vote for in an election that will not happen for some considerable time . The commited voter will give his normal answer but the floater/non commited will tend to side with flavour of the moment . This is what we saw particularly in the conference season .
There are many who believe that the next GE will see a higher turnout with an expected close fight between Labour and the Conservatives . I disagree , the Mori absolutely certain to vote % of 52% is the same as it was in 2003/2004 and unless the Labour government upset voters enough to make them determined to kick them out I think it likely that turnout at the next GE will be similar to the last .

“ComRes for the Independent tomorrow has the Tories eight points ahead of Labour – 41 to 33 per cent – with the Lib Dems on 16pc. This would apparently be enough to give Prime Minister Dave a two-seat majority.”

It will be intersting to see the ComRes figures for Scotland, as in Sept they had the SNP very close on the mid to high twenties, but more interestingly they had the SNP voters on a very high likelyhood to vote. ( near 90% as opposed to labour on about 65%).

I am not sure if we can get our vote out like that and if not the scores we are getting might be artifically boosted, although I don’t know about by how much.