Acceleration in the growth rate of house prices, which could be partially reflective of speculative activity.

Overvaluation in the level of house prices, which indicates that house price levels are not fully supported by fundamental drivers such as income, mortgage rates and population.

Overbuilding of the housing market, which suggests that supply significantly outpaces demand.

The report found that there is weak evidence of problematic conditions in the Calgary market overall. However, there is “moderate evidence of overvaluation detected as house prices posted robust gains in the last couple of years while growth in personal disposable income has recently slowed down. Due to low
oil prices, economic conditions have moderated, which has limited growth in employment and income, as well as reduced net migration.”

In the 15 Census Metropolitan Areas covered in the report, CMHC found that Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg & Toronto all had “strong” evidence of problematic housing market conditions.