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What’s next in the 2016 race

The pace of the race for the Republican and Democratic Party nominations for President will slow somewhat over the next few weeks, as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump try their best to turn themselves into the ‘presumptive’ nominee of their party.

The next round of voting comes up on Saturday, March 26, when Democrats have three caucus states:

+ Washington State has 67 of 101 delegates at stake in precinct level caucuses

+ 25 delegates are available in Hawaii

+ Alaska starts its caucus work to hand out 16 delegates.

After those contests, there is a pause until April 5, when both parties will be in Wisconsin for a primary.

Republicans on Friday April 8 will have a state convention in Colorado, which will elect delegates based on their individual endorsements.

Democrats then have a caucus the next day in Wyoming on Saturday April 9.

Both parties will then focus on New York, which holds a primary on April 19.

April 26 then brings us to Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Rhode Island.

After the results of those states are in, we should know whether either party is truly going to keep battling into May – and maybe June – or whether the nomination fight is all but over.

The GOP delegate math

There has been a lot of discussion about the GOP race, and the importance of “Winner-take-all” delegate states that remain on the schedule; but I must observe that the semantics have gotten a little confusing for many people watching this race play out.

In the remaining Republican contests, there are only five true Winner-take-all states remaining:

Delaware – April 19
Nebraska – May 10
New Jersey – June 7
South Dakota – June 7
Montana – June 7

Four other states have a variant of Winner-take-all, but the delegates are handed out for both the statewide vote, and the vote by individual Congressional districts.

In that scenario, it is possible to win the state, but not get all of the delegates that are at stake (see Missouri for a recent example).

I refer to these states as “Winner-take-most” – but there are some who disagree with that.

So, there are four states left for the GOP that have Winner-take-all both for a statewide pot of delegates and by Congressional district: