One of the more self-destructive and fruitless results of the Credit Crisis is the relentless search for scapegoats. This is silly enough when applied to people. (See my earlier blog, “We’ve Found the 12 People that Caused the Crisis! Now We Can Stop Worrying.”) Of course many, many more than 12 people have been let go by now, and the process is just beginning. But I think professionals know that most of those folks were unaware of the extent of the possible damage that could result for their activities and deserve no less blame than the lucky who are still employed. Stuff happens. But the witch hunt takes a new, more absurd dimension when lawmakers and other pundits begin to blame the knife for the murder. The stock exchanges have been taken to task. The structure of federal banking regulation has been blamed. Perhaps most important, and most telling, the rating agencies are under vicious attack for the admittedly faulty methodology they used to rate asset-backed commercial paper. (Notice I didn’t single out mortgages. Other than blind optimism, there is no reason I can imagine that the many other kinds of collateral that have been used in non-mortgage conduits are safer than the mortgages. If the crisis doesn’t spill over into the entire market, we will be very, very lucky.) My objection to legal challenges to these sorts of entities is that the crisis – like murder – had a motive. And rating agencies and exchanges – like tables, chairs, even knives – cannot have motives. They are only appliances. The rating agencies, it must be said, were not always appliances. There was a time when the rating agencies worried strictly about bonds, now a relatively small part of their business. During that time, the rating agencies were judges, relying on human qualities such as the veracity of chief executives in interviews to make their ratings decisions. And they made them well, confounding the efforts of financial academics to improve on their judgment. But that all changed when rating agencies were baptized by the bank regulators to determine the quality of a hoard of newly issued securities manufactured by investment bankers, and with this decision, to determine to what degree a regulated bank is adequately capitalized. This job was too big and the fees per transaction too small to allow these (then) small companies any possibility of using human judgment on each transaction. A computer had to do it. And that is a process doomed to failure. The computer program has not been invented that can take into account all the subtle forms that excess risk can take. When rating agencies became computing machines they lost their capacity for motive, although they certainly became a formidable weapon in the wrong hands. Individual employees knew what the machines were deciding, dangerous information in the wrong hands. But banks, bank regulators, and ultimately governments were responsible for putting these appliances in the wrong hands. (The call for rating agency transparency which, if [...]

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Business is a scary world, where things have been changing with huge speed. If you have even a slight delay in these changes, there is a big chance for you to miss a golden opportunity, to fall into trap and even to lose… everything! For example, let me take you on a test. Are you aware of what asset management system is and how does it work? Or something even simpler – do you know what digital asset management is? Ok, if you are not aware of these things, you’ve got a problem. But do not panic, you are not here to be criticized, but helped. And today we will discuss the usage of asset management system and the meaning of digital asset management. Because these things might help you a lot, by the way… What’s asset management? Asset management – including digital asset management (DAMS) – is a pack of processes that are usually performed via machine, computer or any other system (that’s why we are speaking of asset management system) in the name of better control, stricter organization and more profitable working process. In general, the asset management system works for the maintenance of a group of things, people and sometimes even values (for example, prices, currencies and etc). The human capital, the intellectual property and even the financial assets are all handled by asset management system. When it comes to financial asset management system, it refers to specially tailored financial services that help you to make your investments wiser and more practical. There is an accounting part in the asset management system process, but many other things like compressing important information and calculating your final profits are also included. Literally, asset management system has practices and digital approaches into better financial managements. The question now is though why using asset management system? We will list you only the shortest version of the big pack of benefits a asset management system can bring to you and your business. Here are the strong points of such software product: lower risk, bigger profits less losses and no chance for delays more systematic information about your overall activity crucial way to progress no matter what’s the field you are applying the specific asset management system a chance to spread your activity in more regions since the asset management system has also the capacity to measure your present performance and to make improvements as to it. Finds the genesis of the issue in your activity that goes down – regardless whether you are in financial field or asset management system is for your business company. The conclusion is clear. You cannot go away of innovations, so trying some asset management system cannot be a mistake to you. On the contrary – you can only gain most of its benefits! So go to browse the web and find the most working and effective asset management [...]

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In the future (past), society began to re-asses the utility of being online. The internet (as we know it) develops in a series of cycles. In time, we learn that during certain cycles, it becomes more valuable to utilize the internet to hide oneself as opposed to promote oneself (inversion). -Mister Volatility After a conference call with my assistant, Tonya, I am still uncertain if I own any preferred shares of Twitter. Trading public markets is like venture capital with one caveat—timeframe. Venture investors trade over periods of years. Mister Volatility (that’s me) invests in ventures himself and has, from time to time, lent money to VC firms to participate in their arbitrage. Private equity is a longer timeframe trade. In public market trading there is sufficient liquidity on smaller timeframes (scales), down to the millisecond. These micro scales present results to the exponential–so I must build models to trade them. The liquidity cycle of Venture Capital is much longer. Given the variance in timeframes my investment focus is dual: Private equity on in the longer frame and public (liquid) markets on the shorter. I do not own any direct shares of Twitter—but it is possible that I own some through a fund. The reason Tonya doesn’t know is because she doesn’t know everything about me. If there is one imperative I can impart about assistants, even the great ones, it is this: keep some secrets. Anyway, what I am saying is that I want to buy shares of Twitter, even if I already own some. If I already have some, I’d like more. I understand there are shares for sale at Sharepost.com, and I instructed Tonya to take care of it. Unfortunately, she said the website will not accept my registration because The Tinker Factory does not release it’s physical addresses, and an address is required. Therefore, if anyone is interested in selling me shares, please come by the office sooner rather than later. I am an internet analyst after all, and my analysis reveals that the market cap of Twitter will surpass that of Google. In fact, it will be the second largest company in the world (as measured by market cap). We will talk about the first largest company in the world later, but I’ll give you a hint: think automated distribution and green energy. (But don’t limit yourself to the typical definition of clean and efficient power. Might not “green energy” refer to banking–some money is green and banking is about moving money, which requires energy!) Perhaps someone will be in touch soon to sell me some shares. No matter, I am going to build some companies over the next couple of weeks that I’ll sell to Twitter for stock as opposed to cash. And the beat goes [...]

Earlier today I was closing some deals when I remembered that it was time for me to address the eBusiness Cashual nation. I started eBusiness Cashual (eBC) while traversing a myriad of sumptuous hotels and satellite castles that Robin Leach could only add to his champagne wishes and caviar dreams. It was within these undisclosed locations that I made my formal Cashual breakthrough: my rags to riches tale is fodder for more than a Hollywood epic. I had undervalued myself—I had a higher purpose. As this indubitable knowledge materialized, the eBC concept was conceived—yet it remained unborn. The possibility hung in the air in front of me like a 15-year-old awaiting his driver’s test. Still the dream was taking form, and I believed in it. Laboring to birth my business brain-child, I considered the most important aspects of industry and production. The best businesses are the ones that empower others to create their own businesses. Think eBay or Google or Amway. How many people have founded businesses upon the generous platforms of the these giants? The catch: though free to a large audience, these businesses do require some fees to be paid. Someone is taking a cut. But If I could come up with a business so robust that it was impervious to these cagey cuts, a profit would be profit. Now I have transcended entrepreneur and become philosopher. If I define my business as one that empowers others, but also disables the process of profit skimming, I may just have a new concept: the reverse pyramid scheme! Standing atop my pyramid and reveling in my intellectual bounds, I realized after all, it is all about me. In attempting to explain how it wasn’t, I confirmed that it was. The best businesses are free to a very large audience, are viral, and no one else takes a cut of the profit. Deducing through the algorithm, it becomes clear: The best businesses are lifestyles. Thus the painfully beautiful birth of eBC—the lifestyle of Vinnie Vega—sprawling in it’s newborn purity before you. EBC is a collaborative enterprise contact management cloud solution from which we can all gain. It is what it is. There is no face or book in it. Here at eBC, we start in the street, steady on our feet, and we always keep it eBusiness Cashual. We Love You [...]

Meanwhile, back at the factory, the spin offs are spinning, the lifestyle’s inspiring, and the character development beats on. Turning to the box scores we see that—much like my life—the market is a tumultuous beast that I am determined to tame. Booking profits all the while. The S&P 500 gained almost nothing today; it could only muster a minor 4.18 point or (.37%) gain. Gold took a breather and closed down 11 points to close at 1132 per oz. Buyers met sellers in a decently orderly fashion. Headlines were light—so much so that the Jessica Simpson interview on Oprah took center stage. I’ve yet to hire Jessica for her starring role in my new epic, The Adventures of Pinky Megiston, but after her daring performance on Oprah, she is definitely on speed dial. She fits the part perfectly: she’s the most famous actress in the world with all sorts of security problems. The first time I saw her, I wondered if I’d ever met someone so beautiful with so many problems. Given her propensity for the spotlight and controversy, it was easy for me to develop an infatuation and eventually fall in love with her. Whether or not our affair is ever consummated in the honeymoon suite of reality, it will reign authentic in the archives of my memory. Syndication is a girls best friend, right? Speaking of syndication (blatant attempt to segue from my inappropriate digression), Greece’s syndicated 10-year debt offering may or may not go well, and depending on the outcome, the markets may continue to behave or may roil. Rating’s Agencies Here is where it gets tricky. If the ratings agency Moody’s were to downgrade Greece’s sovereign rating two notches—in line with ratings at Fitch and S&P—Greece’s sovereign debt would be ineligible for ECB repo operations when collateral criteria reverts to the normal minimum thresholds (A3/A- or above) at the end of 2010. From Tradethenews.com: “The Greek cabinet will meet March 3 to discuss the additional austerity measures demanded by the rest of the Euro Zone, with an announcement on further budget cuts expected after the meeting. German Chancellor Merkel will meet with her Greek counterpart on March 5. In currency markets, euro sentiment depends on the final shape of Greeces austerity plans. Considering the Greece story only really caught fire after the last ECB meeting, ECB President Trichet’s monthly press conference on March 4th is a must see. Moreover, the ECB’s three- and six-month special refinancing operations are scheduled to expire at the end of the month. The market will be looking for a bravura performance from the ECB, an institution often characterized as rigid. Real flexibility is needed in the face of unprecedented challenges to the European monetary union.” Just a few things to think about (besides Jessica’s exquisite form). And the beat goes [...]

As the previously documented sovereign event approaches, the uncertainty that remains draws me closer to the prosperity that will effect the collective consciousness of my readership connection. To further dissect the economic scenario that is playing out, I will offer some thoughts on where things are, what could cause things to reverse, as well as how to best prosper from the sovereign contagion that is spreading like wildfire. Greece In my prior post, I outlined the sovereign default risk that we face—somewhere, sometime soon. Several geographies are flashing extremely risky scenarios. Greece is in need of a bailout and they lay on the precipice of disaster if some aid is not found. Any proposal of aid I have seen will not be a solution, rather a band-aid on a broken bone. However, a band-aid could buy Greece some time–which they are in dire need of. Ireland Economic woes in Ireland are severe, and they are not being given the focus they require. Further trouble in the place where I kissed the Blarney Stone could be the impetus for the contagion to spread further, causing the market dislocation that I anticipate. Dubai Risk in Dubai is priced where it was at the height of 2009. Further trouble and inability to restructure will cause fallout in Dubai—which will affect Europe, which will effect Greece, and the dominoes will continue to tip. Last week in Dubai, I found money dealers paying extremely large mark-ups for physical gold. Indeed, rumors of gold being used as legal tender in Dubai are true. Again we see my thesis substantiated: the risk aversion trade here is not the US Dollar, rather the precious metals–gold and silver. Spain: The Wild Card All of the above geographies could stabilize, or with further troubles, could act as catalysts for the contagion to spread quicker than it already is. I’d note that Spain was a large driver of contagion over the past two years. The housing bubble in Spain was by far the largest real estate bubble compared to anywhere else. They also face a severely high unemployment rate. However, even with all this trouble, spreads on banks in Spain are not showing the stress they should. When the stress of the housing bubble and unemployment rate percolates into Spanish banks, it will be easy for Spain to pick up where it left off. More in need of a bailout this time, Spain will contribute to the strain in Europe, affecting Greece, affecting Ireland…tip, tip, tip. All That Glitters Though the catalyst remains uncertain, the looming event is undeniable. Remember, when the entire universe lunges to take risk off the table in a reaction to what I anticipate, gold will stand, glittering amidst the debris. I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: if you don’t own gold, you should. And the beat goes [...]