The dollar is falling. $2.1 = pound. $1.44 = Euro. $1.08 = Can $. The Economy outlook is not good. current chairman Ben Berneke has warned for a slower economic growth. So we are in a recession now?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071108/wall_street.html

Yet matha mota Bush is urging everyone to spend. I don't get any of what he says anyway. Does anyone know why the US Govt. is not doing something? Or they are just dumb not to know what they must do now?

Is trade surplass that important where you sacrifice everything?

AsifTheManRahman

November 8, 2007, 03:49 PM

When I came down to the United States 10 weeks ago, I was a happy man, anticipating an 8% gain on every dollar I make during my temp stay. Looks like I'll have to go back 8% poorer (or maybe even more, given the rate at which the American dollar has been depreciating).

Kabir

November 8, 2007, 03:53 PM

All I know is, Bush doesn't have any time to fix anything at this moment. He's there only for another year and a half, and he'll happily leave all the dirty work for his successor. All he cares about right now is making his own family business stronger.

Although I don't understand economics all that much, it's probably a blessing in disguise for the US though. Their trade might increase due to cheaper dollar.

Tigers_eye

November 8, 2007, 03:53 PM

When I came down to the United States 10 weeks ago, I was a happy man, anticipating an 8% gain on every dollar I make during my temp stay. Looks like I'll have to go back 8% poorer (or maybe even more, given the rate at which the American dollar has been depreciating).
Now that should really hurt? have you talked to your employer about this? There is a legit ground you may get a compensation. :)

Nasif

November 8, 2007, 03:55 PM

This will most likely get worse.

Kabir

November 8, 2007, 04:08 PM

Now that should really hurt? have you talked to your employer about this? There is a legit ground you may get a compensation. :)

A lot of times, such legit grounds lead to illegit firing and sacking.

My suggestion - chup chap shoye jao bhai. Kichuui korar nai.

AsifTheManRahman

November 8, 2007, 04:31 PM

hehe, bepar na, i am aware of baagh mama's track record of trying to screw up his bhaignas with intentionally flawed advice (first about marital affairs and now this) ;)

One World

November 8, 2007, 07:12 PM

Listening to supertalk way back home from work, they were saying some cities in Cali is charging 5$ a gallon today and its been always a vital factor for me as I drive this gas-gazer isuzu trooper 14mpg.

Bancan

November 8, 2007, 09:08 PM

The Canadian Dollar is flying. Anyone here in Ontario affected by this? People in the auto industry is getting hit. A lot of agency's are sending their workers back saying no work.
On the bright side, the conversion rate is pretty high. So more takas when sending money back home.

The return to the gold standard is supported by Objectivists, followers of the Austrian School of Economics, and many libertarians.

It is opposed by the vast majority of governments and economists, because the gold standard has frequently been shown to provide insufficient flexibility in the supply of money and in fiscal policy, because the supply of newly mined gold is finite and must be carefully husbanded and accounted for. However the opposite is also believed. The paper money printed based on the finite amount of gold will go up in value as it becomes more rare. This explains why at one time in the United States you could pay for milk and bread in pennies as opposed to several dollars today.

Few economists today advocate a return to the gold standard, other than the Austrian school and some supply-siders. However, many prominent economists are sympathetic with a hard currency basis, and argue against fiat money, including former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and macro-economist Robert Barro. The current monetary system relies on the US Dollar as an “anchor currency” which major transactions, such as the price of gold itself, are measured in. Currency instabilities, inconvertibility and credit access restriction are a few reasons why the current system has been criticized. A host of alternatives have been suggested, including energy-based currencies, market baskets of currencies or commodities; gold is merely one of these alternatives.

In 2001 Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad proposed a new currency that would be used initially for international trade between Muslim nations. The currency he proposed was called the islamic gold dinar and it was defined as 4.25 grams of 24 carat (100%) gold. Mahathir Mohamad promoted the concept on the basis of its economic merits as a stable unit of account and also as a political symbol to create greater unity between Islamic nations. The purported purpose of this move would be to reduce dependence on the United States dollar as a reserve currency, and to establish a non-debt-backed currency in accord with Islamic law against the charging of interest. Nonetheless, gold dinar currency has not yet materialized.

ammark

November 9, 2007, 04:23 AM

... Yet matha mota Bush is urging everyone to spend....

if I remember basics of macroeconomics correctly, when an economy is in recession, one of the ways to keep it going is by keeping spending up. However the treasury usually has to have a fat wad of cash not to go too much into debt to sustain the spending. See Orpheus's post (http://www.banglacricket.com/alochona/showthread.php?t=20950&p=563174) for what happens when there isnt any spending power. But then this is a very classical economics theory.

Critics of President Bush's trade policies say that even with the narrowing of the deficit this year, the imbalances are still running at unsustainable levels, forcing the United States to depend more and more on foreigners' willingness to hold dollars to finance the imbalances. While a falling dollar is good for exports, it raises worries that at some point foreigners will be less willing to purchase dollar-denominated investments such as U.S. stocks and bonds. Such a change in sentiment could send stock prices plunging and push up U.S. interest rates.
...

Tigers_eye

November 9, 2007, 10:38 AM

if I remember basics of macroeconomics correctly, when an economy is in recession, one of the ways to keep it going is by keeping spending up. However the treasury usually has to have a fat wad of cash not to go too much into debt to sustain the spending. See Orpheus's post (http://www.banglacricket.com/alochona/showthread.php?t=20950&p=563174) for what happens when there isnt any spending power. But then this is a very classical economics theory.
That is only a temporary stop-gap solution. Eventually it will catch up unless one starts producing some superior goods those have a demand on the global market. Americans moving away from the production industries to service industries is one of the reason can't compete with the global market. Not focusing on quality and focusing short-term will make this country go down on a faster track than the electric trains.
Treasury printing money is making things worse.

People won't spend when there is a concern. Think of your personal finance. Will you spend all your monthly check within first two weeks. Any type of uncertainity would make the market crawl in to a shell. At the end of the day, foreigners will move away from the US stock market to Euro or Japan. Even US treasury bills will be affected.

billah

November 9, 2007, 12:51 PM

My Canadian supplier hates it....specially when he's expecting a payment from me in US $.. :lol:

ialbd

November 9, 2007, 01:15 PM

any chance this exchange rate will get back to normal in the next 3-4 months?
got some US$ in my account, planning to get rid of them cuz its getting devalued everyday...

Tigers_eye

November 9, 2007, 01:37 PM

any chance this exchange rate will get back to normal in the next 3-4 months?
got some US$ in my account, planning to get rid of them cuz its getting devalued everyday...
fat chance. think of it as you don't have it. Cash it in 2010/2011.

Orpheus

November 9, 2007, 02:55 PM

any chance this exchange rate will get back to normal in the next 3-4 months?
got some US$ in my account, planning to get rid of them cuz its getting devalued everyday...

Yeah if fed raise interest rates by 10,000 basis points. If that happens, I am coming to ROB you.

al Furqaan

November 9, 2007, 10:37 PM

firstly, i am no expert on economics, and this one rare subject area where nearly everyone on BC (children included) know more than me.

short term, i don't think there will be any serious problems - and by that i mean i won't personally be affected. i guess thats a very superficial way to look at things.

but i have the feeling that the super wealthy USA - the one my parents immigrated to some 25-30 years ago will be a shell of that opulent place in another 25-30 years.

there is already talk that when people my age retire, they won't have social security to fall back on. i guess if i don't get a good paying job and save up my crap, i'll be screwed.

this is all part of the natural cycle, rich societies will become poor[er] and vice versa. as long as i have my ten chickens in my pot, i should be a happy camper :)

akabir77

November 10, 2007, 01:53 PM

oh i thought this was for Dollar's Hattrick Thread!!!

Farhad

November 11, 2007, 12:43 PM

there is already talk that when people my age retire, they won't have social security to fall back on.

I have no idea where you could have heard that from. Probably from the media trying to stir up fear again. If anything, the working generation at the time will be screwed when we retire. The elderly are getting to live more and more comfortably in recent years, and sociologists say thats increasing day by day. Heres a statistic: social security payments amount to 600 times higher than they did 50 years ago. Thats an increase of hundreds of billions. Poverty rates among the elderly have gone under 10% for the first time in history while the rates among children have actually increased. The dependancy rate - number of workers supporting one elderly person - has reduced so much that its fallen from 16 workers in 1950 to 4 workers now. So believe me AF, the last person you should be worrying about is yourself.

But sticking to the matter at hand, theres not a chance in hell that the US is falling into a recession. The economy will almost definitely slow down though due to the trading deficits weve dug out for ourselves. You might want to note that the same thing happened in the 1980s with Japan instead of China seen as the main threat.

Summing up, this thread has been opened waaay too late. The economy looked in deepest trouble in 2006 when analysts noted the falling dollar in addition to huge trading deficits. The US have desperately tried to turn things around since then, and have - to a certain level - succeeded. Trading deficits are down to its lowest level in 28 months and exports at record highs...

al Furqaan

November 11, 2007, 06:43 PM

I have no idea where you could have heard that from. Probably from the media trying to stir up fear again.

a lot of people are saying that...of course they have every chance to be wrong...but i have trouble seeing how this present standard of living can be maintained in the US in the long term. i'm talking about things taking place at least 20 years down the road and up to several hundred years in the future.

there is every chance we'll beat the hurdles but there are also at least an equal chance that we won't.

i remember 5 years ago gas prices where i live were about half what they are today (1.65 vs 3.00 or 3.10). sure the gas price could do down to last months 2.75 but the general trend is not good if it remains as it has. if the gas prices double every 5 years, will you be able to fill your tank up 20 years from now? not long ago people were getting their panties in a bunch as a barrel of crude was hitting 70 bucks...now its easily 90 and threatening to hit a ton.

i just have a gut feeling that economic mismanagement is inherent within societies, a sort of divine balance that will ultimately level the global playing fields.

u.s dollar have fallen compared to other currencies in the past year. but i think it will rise back up. because u.s dollar is still the number one reserve currency. 2/3 of world's reserve money is still the u.s dollar. if the value of u.s dollar continue to decrease and stay that way it will be good for american economy and bad for world economy. because most of the u.s dollar are held by other countries and other big firms. also the job outsourseing which has been a problem because americans are losing jobs to third world countries will improve if dollar value goes down. because then companies will find it more expensive outsourse their work to another country. thus they may want to stay in u.s.a. i feel this falling of u.s dollar will have an negative impact on other countries more then it will for people here in america. which is why i believe that u.s dollar value will rise again very soon.

ammark

November 14, 2007, 09:46 AM

and here's another thought: if the central banks around the world move away from the US Dollar being the reserve currency - Any amount of US$ sale like that will further depress the value of the dollar.

Rabz

November 14, 2007, 12:11 PM

and here's another thought: if the central banks around the world move away from the US Dollar being the reserve currency - Any amount of US$ sale like that will further depress the value of the dollar.

There are a very good chance of that happening, may be not today, may be not tomorrow, but surely in the long run. Say in about 10-15 years time.

People around the world has surely waken up to the grasp of US power, whether it is economic, political, military or cultural. America- the one single word which would bring countless dreams to the youth and old alike, now comes with a mixed feelings. There always been the US-haters, but these days it grew in ten times fold or more.

With the rise of more anti-US sentimism, coupled with the search for an alternative or dual superpower system, I BELIEVE, the world is searching for a new "Russia".
It might come in the shape of China, or European Union, or both.

What all these to do with our subject matter?
Everything.

Top models already taking payments in Euro, Central banks looking alternative currency to fatten their reserve balance, is just the beginning.

...oh damn tv... looking at it for couple of minutes..and i now forgot what i was trying to say....

i think im going away from the topic...
will continue when i can remember again...
( and after years of abuse, my brain cells are not working so swifty these days...)

Tigers_eye

November 14, 2007, 12:25 PM

Farhad,
By any chance, are you a republican?

Farhad

November 14, 2007, 08:41 PM

Farhad,
By any chance, are you a republican?

No. I can see why you would think so though. I see its become the in-thing to blame the administration nowadays. And I do too, I blame the administration for alot of things, but not for this. Here, Im just stating the facts: poverty among the elderly is decreasing, and the economy is not falling into recession. At least not yet.

SS

November 30, 2007, 08:30 AM

Another rate cut might be happenning...starting from hoursing market to credit to consumer ...US economy is in shaky condition (regular consumers feeling the heat). Bernake is trying best(!) but is the situation out of control? Loan Sharks along with the diplomats already made their money, and regular people are suffering.

and here's another thought: if the central banks around the world move away from the US Dollar being the reserve currency - Any amount of US$ sale like that will further depress the value of the dollar.

Kuwait and Syria are no longer pegging their currencies on the US dollar, using a basket of currencies instead. Iran will now only sell oil in currencies other than the US dollar. The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) met recently and decided to temporarily stick with the US dollar (using a coordinated revaluation against the dollar by Gulf states, rather than moves to currency basket pegs) but sources say there was considerable strong-arming by the Saudis behind the scenes. Russia is thinking about diversifying their foreign reserves, and so is China (a Chinese official actually let this slip, before his comments were "corrected" by the Chinese government).

Personally, I don't think the change away from the US dollar as the reserve currency will happen overnight, but I suspect it will happen. However, such a change or thoughts about it are more a reflection of concerns about the dire straits of the US economy than its cause.

The cause in this case seems to be the subprime fiasco (with Alan Greespan who received such plaudits before retiring being the individual primarily responsible (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/business/18subprime.html)) -- for a fairly lucid explanation see the Wikipedia entry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_financial_crisis) on this (and take a look at the losses reported by your favourite financial institution in the table therein). Now Federal Reserve attempts at resolving this crisis would be likely to work if this was simply an issue of lack of liquidity. But Paul Krugman (whose op-ed column in the New York Times and blog I find essential reading, by the way) makes a very compelling argument (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/opinion/14krugman.html) that the crux of the crisis is the fundamental problem of insolvency, and if that is correct, then very little can be done.

Caveat: I am not an economist, nor do I play one on the Internet. There are already several, as well as those studying to be economists, on this forum. So take my comments as what they are, my own views, with a grain of salt.

Tigers_eye

December 19, 2007, 01:52 PM

No. I can see why you would think so though. I see its become the in-thing to blame the administration nowadays. And I do too, I blame the administration for alot of things, but not for this. Here, Im just stating the facts: poverty among the elderly is decreasing, and the economy is not falling into recession. At least not yet.
Administration not acting fast enough even now and letting the dollar fall further.
Admins policy on war and trying to fix economy that way. bad move.
Admins giving false assurance that the economy is fine. Lying!!
Instead of trying/encouraging to make better product they cry on dollar's higher value is the reason american products can't get in to the foreign market. Bull sh*t!!
Admin claims that they reduced the trade deficit. Are we so gullible? before the year could finish trade deficit is coming back to bite their A**. Have anyone looked at the current deficit?
The above should be enough for "but not for this".
NEXT:

1) Where did you see poverty among the elderly is decreasing? You must be living in the white house. Because only from there one can not see the real situation among the commoners. I suggest get out a little, read a little. See how elderly has to work even after their retirement age just to meet his daily bills.

"The dependancy rate - number of workers supporting one elderly person - has reduced so much that its fallen from 16 workers in 1950 to 4 workers now." - Do you understand what this means?

In 50's, 16 people's SS tax took care of one elderly person. There wasn't much burden since the tax was distributed among themselves. Everyone paying less.

Now after the Brainiac's (Bush) evil deed tapping in to Social security to fund the war and other things now 4 people supports one elderly person. Now one person has to pay higher SS tax just to keep the senior citizens alive. When we retire the ratio will be 1:1 or 1:2. Would one (then working class) be able to feed another extra mouth? Unless Social security system is reformed and Brainiac and their honorable advisors don't stick their dirty hand in to the SS fund, SS system will break down in front of your own eyes. May be this will not hurt you much because you may already have millions in your bank account. but for common people they will start rioting. One thing will lead to another I don't see this economy surviving.

2) Economy may not be falling in to recession but it is also not far from recession line.

Farhad

December 19, 2007, 07:24 PM

Administration not acting fast enough even now and letting the dollar fall further.
Admins policy on war and trying to fix economy that way. bad move.
Admins giving false assurance that the economy is fine. Lying!!
Instead of trying/encouraging to make better product they cry on dollar's higher value is the reason american products can't get in to the foreign market. Bull sh*t!!
Admin claims that they reduced the trade deficit. Are we so gullible? before the year could finish trade deficit is coming back to bite their A**. Have anyone looked at the current deficit?
The above should be enough for "but not for this".
NEXT:

1) Where did you see poverty among the elderly is decreasing? You must be living in the white house. Because only from there one can not see the real situation among the commoners. I suggest get out a little, read a little. See how elderly has to work even after their retirement age just to meet his daily bills.

"The dependancy rate - number of workers supporting one elderly person - has reduced so much that its fallen from 16 workers in 1950 to 4 workers now." - Do you understand what this means?

In 50's, 16 people's SS tax took care of one elderly person. There wasn't much burden since the tax was distributed among themselves. Everyone paying less.

I fear you may have misunderstood my last post. Nobody here is saying that the economy is in tip-top shape. Far from it. I brought up two points, and two points only: The economy is not yet falling into recession, but we're at the brink (a point you seem to agree with if I understand correctly), & the Elderly are not any worse off now than they were 50 years ago. The workers are being squeezed more and more, not the elderly. Thats why I spoke of dependance rates (which are decreasing which works to prove my point about what I said earlier of workers being squeezed), and thats why I wrote this in a previous post:

So believe me AF, the last person you should be worrying about is yourself.

Because the working generation at the time will have to pay a lot more to support us than we pay right now to support the elderly. I suggest you read a bit more on this here (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1272/is_2663_129/ai_63986725) to learn more about what Im saying.

I think the misunderstanding stemmed from the fact that I was referring to a post of AF bhai's in my previous message and you thought i was speaking about the falling economy in general. Out of everybody here, Im probably the least optimistic about the country's future here. The working generation 30 years from now will be screwed the way things are going, but forecasts show the elderly wont be doing much worse than they are now or were 50 years ago...

...But sticking to the matter at hand, theres not a chance in hell that the US is falling into a recession. The economy will almost definitely slow down though due to the trading deficits weve dug out for ourselves. You might want to note that the same thing happened in the 1980s with Japan instead of China seen as the main threat.

Summing up, this thread has been opened waaay too late. The economy looked in deepest trouble in 2006 when analysts noted the falling dollar in addition to huge trading deficits. The US have desperately tried to turn things around since then, and have - to a certain level - succeeded. Trading deficits are down to its lowest level in 28 months and exports at record highs...
(I think hell is coming down to earth, I mean in US)
You may not want to give two cents what I had questioned but certainly you may want to look in to what Greenspan has to say. Yup!! That is Alan Greenspan, Ex Fed Reserve Chairman.

Greenspan doubts Fed's ability to prevent recession
...
The former Fed chief put the chances of a US recession at 50 percent, but added: "We have few indications that would allow us to say we are already there."
...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/pl_afp/germanyuseconomygreenspan

Farhad

January 30, 2008, 01:41 PM

(I think hell is coming down to earth, I mean in US)
You may not want to give two cents what I had questioned but certainly you may want to look in to what Greenspan has to say. Yup!! That is Alan Greenspan, Ex Fed Reserve Chairman.

Greenspan doubts Fed's ability to prevent recession
...
The former Fed chief put the chances of a US recession at 50 percent, but added: "We have few indications that would allow us to say we are already there."
...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080130/pl_afp/germanyuseconomygreenspan

Did you even read my last post? To reiterate, Im not very optimistic about this countrys future. Even Bush admits that the Economy isnt looking too good (and if a person like him is saying it, it has to be bad) and you post some comment from an Ex Fed Chief saying he thinks the chances of a recession are 50%? I could dig up a million quotes that would serve your argument better. I will however say that I was wrong in that comment I posted back in November. Things look a lot worse now than they did then and you may want to look at my more recent post where i corrected myself before you dig up some comment i made months ago. Why would you want to prove me wrong after I myself changed my stance? Are you that desperate to be right? Bow to the great debater :notworthy:.

Btw, i think the Ex Fed Chief was being optimistic. The chances of a recession are more around 70%. Recessions come and go every few years so I wouldnt be too worried about another Great Depression just yet.

mshakir56

February 2, 2008, 01:11 PM

The longer Bush stays in power, the harsher the economic damage their will be. The general american public will suffer because of his economic mis-handling .

Tigers_eye

February 2, 2008, 04:58 PM

Dear Farhad,
Yes I did read your posts. Not once but multiple times. That is why even after few months I had to dig up this thread for specific reasons. Before I say anything I must point out few serious things.

1. Do not bow down to anyone except your creater.
2. I am not great.
3. Nor am I a debater.

Now it is always good to express your thoughts and what you believe. But trying to be prove your points with arrogance is not correct. Yes, from the very 1st post I blamed the Admins. I guess that was sticking point for you which you could not take. Now the Admins are trying to do something. I was asking them to take these steps few months back. Whereas, you were saying they did what they had to do and not to blame the Admin.

Finally, Greenspan is ex. But no economist, financial analyst, Govt. leaders, Fortune 500 CEOs can dismiss anything what he says on economy, even now. Whereas, all of the above can disregard the big headed "chad-thief of Florida" and his analysts utter about economics and its outlook. Most of their work (data) are channeled only to serve their interest (by lying in Govt reports - Very common). Since you disregard Greenspan's remark but give Bush's remark a more precedence I would refrain from any discussion with you on this topic. I respectfully disagree with you on most of your stances. Even on when we become senior citizens remarks.

Farhad

February 2, 2008, 09:17 PM

You want to know why I questioned the fact that you read my post multiple times? Because of this very small point:
I was asking them to take these steps few months back. Whereas, you were saying they did what they had to do and not to blame the Admin.

I was telling you not to blame the admin for the state our senior citizens are in. I believe I made that pretty clear. I cant believe youve made such a big issue out of this after such a throw away remark. Ive even proven the reason why the senior citizen "problem" shouldnt be blamed on the admins. Because, as the chart shows, there is no major senior citizen problem! That was my only point. As for me taking Bush's words more seriously than Greenspans, are you out of your mind?? Thats you twisting my words as youve done all throughout this discussion. I simply pointed out that if Bush admits the economy's failing, I would look into that as hes hardly a man who admits his own faults. He's arguing that the "War on terror" is working for gods sake! I apologize if I came off arrogant in my last post, but It was probably just discomposure on my part because I wasnt getting through to you, and the fact that we seem to have so many of these pointless arguments throughout this board. And when I saw that you restarted this one a full month after it looked to be over I guess I felt a bit annoyed. I understand that you're entitled to your opinion, but when you twist my words time and time again simply to prove your point, its a bit disheartening. I do hope this ridiculously drawn-out "discussion" can finally end right here...

this thing ends at 2003. i think things have gotten a lot worse for kids and geezers in the ensuing 4.5 years or so. just a hunch.

Tigers_eye

February 3, 2008, 09:10 AM

Dear Farhad,
(I had to disclose) My real job is to audit/investigate Fraud, Abuse and Neglect for Medicaid recipients in one of the poorest states in US. Close to half of them are elderly. I work with them in an intimate basis. Be they are in nursing homes, hospitals or in huts (yes, I just said huts in US). I have been in this position for almost 7 years (April '01). I can tell you for sure, the picture you portray on elderly folks condition from the Govt. reports are no way near the condition I see first hand. That is in our time (we are paying the SS). Why the Govt. now are thinking to expand the retirement age limit? With other factors also, the Govt. can not sustain SS unless they do something about it right now. Bush's Govt. and some previous Govt. also took out money from SS and used them to fund wars and other agendas. The Govt. is the #1 to be blamed, bro. I know, cause unfortunately I work for them.

As I said before most of the Govt. report has manipulation in it. They are not as transparent as one tend to believe. Living in big cities and being closely attached to the Govt. will put a cover over most peoples eyes. The rural America is the real America. There the majority of elderly are not in a peaceful mind. Their condition is real bad. I can not say if it is worse than the 50s or not cause I did not see their condition. However, I can say if things don't change, we (generation) need to prepare ourselves for a big reality shock once we get to that age.

I am a firm believer that our generation is in big trouble if they plan to live on SS and Govt don't do something now (like stop taking out money from the SS every year and reform). We the immigrants, may not be in tough situations because of our savings, futuristic planning, but the normal Americans are definitely are. Hopefully I will be living in BD if I can live that long.

By the way, I did not twist any words. The posts are still there (both your and mine). Those who are reading can judge themselves.

Good luck to the Super Bowl. Go Pats, make history!!

Farhad

February 3, 2008, 12:03 PM

I appreciate your calm and thoughtful reply and I think I finally understand where youre coming from. The question was more about personal experiences against science. And I have no trouble with that, personal experiences trump data in my mind because, as we all know, numbers dont always tell the whole story. I will however point out that a large reason i was so outspoken about this is because Ive done same. Arkansas has the worst rate of poverty among the elderly after Mississippi (nearly one in five are below the poverty line), whereas Massachusetts has one of the lowest. As you can see, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum so these strikingly different views on this subject is understandable. Neither of us can give the true depiction of poverty around the country through personal experiences.

There, Ive clarified my point and youve clarified yours. Lets put this one behind us...
And yeah, Go Pats! Although this latest spygate accusation taints things a little bit. Believe me, us Pats fans dont like hearing about this anymore than the Rams...

Farhad

February 3, 2008, 12:09 PM

this thing ends at 2003. i think things have gotten a lot worse for kids and geezers in the ensuing 4.5 years or so. just a hunch.

Not necessarily. Here are two snippets about the latest poverty rates.

The new Census figures also show that while the overall poverty rate declined slightly (from 12.6 percent to 12.3 percent) between 2005 and 2006, the decline was largely concentrated among the elderly. The poverty rates for children and for working age adults remained statistically unchanged as compared to 2005, and well above their levels in 2001, when the last recession hit bottom

The poverty rate among the elderly declined from 10.1 percent in 2005 to 9.4 percent in 2006.

As you can see from the chart, the rate of 9.4 puts it right below the alltime low in 1999...

Remember, Im not saying these rates show that we dont have anymore work to do in this section of the population. Just that we need to put more resources on some of the rates that do look worrisome: for example, the high rates of povert among children.... But its completely understandable that some people may not agree with me. The trouble is, the retirement age of the baby boomers generation is coming near. Pretty soon, there'll be even further strain on the working generation...

Source: (http://www.cbpp.org/8-28-07pov.htm)

nsd3

February 4, 2008, 12:10 AM

Enjoyed Krugman's argument. Thanks for sharing. Cheers!
Kuwait and Syria are no longer pegging their currencies on the US dollar, using a basket of currencies instead. Iran will now only sell oil in currencies other than the US dollar. The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) met recently and decided to temporarily stick with the US dollar (using a coordinated revaluation against the dollar by Gulf states, rather than moves to currency basket pegs) but sources say there was considerable strong-arming by the Saudis behind the scenes. Russia is thinking about diversifying their foreign reserves, and so is China (a Chinese official actually let this slip, before his comments were "corrected" by the Chinese government).

Personally, I don't think the change away from the US dollar as the reserve currency will happen overnight, but I suspect it will happen. However, such a change or thoughts about it are more a reflection of concerns about the dire straits of the US economy than its cause.

The cause in this case seems to be the subprime fiasco (with Alan Greespan who received such plaudits before retiring being the individual primarily responsible (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/18/business/18subprime.html)) -- for a fairly lucid explanation see the Wikipedia entry (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_financial_crisis) on this (and take a look at the losses reported by your favourite financial institution in the table therein). Now Federal Reserve attempts at resolving this crisis would be likely to work if this was simply an issue of lack of liquidity. But Paul Krugman (whose op-ed column in the New York Times and blog I find essential reading, by the way) makes a very compelling argument (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/14/opinion/14krugman.html) that the crux of the crisis is the fundamental problem of insolvency, and if that is correct, then very little can be done.

Caveat: I am not an economist, nor do I play one on the Internet. There are already several, as well as those studying to be economists, on this forum. So take my comments as what they are, my own views, with a grain of salt.

One World

March 7, 2008, 07:44 PM

Looks like US entered in a recession here. Students from overseas will stop graduating and try to linger with their projects to prolong their commencement as long as
1. The interest rates of CBA as of others become stronger again.
2. Bernenke and Lazear both agrees that situation is not worsening.
3. Gas prices goes back to somewhere <3 dollars
4. President Bush can happily appear on tv to join a choir singing "We Shall Overcome"
5. Should I buy/sell - thread gets on an average 5 posts a day :)

One World

March 7, 2008, 07:47 PM

Next prayer for those 63000 jobs cut during the month of February to return to job market which might not happen anywhere early.

goru

March 8, 2008, 12:26 AM

5. Should I buy/sell - thread gets on an average 5 posts a day :)

Well, averaging 5 posts a month now...

One World

March 11, 2008, 07:52 PM

Just read about the 200 billion dollar release from federal reserve which actually ballooned up all the indexes countrywide. As the economists in the country were shearly divided into their opinions about "recession" into two divergent groups: the Anderson chapter of UCLA along with Fosler who are calling it a stagnation or just credit bubble while Wallstreet CEO and Larsen were marking it as a definite recession. If it is not recession that will be good, but even though the price hike will continue and the price of dollar will be depleting if stringent measures are not taken to control oil price and reduce trade deficits. Banks are reluctant to provide loans after this biggest mortgage debacle or imposing high APR's. Only good news is the average of post in the said thread might go up. Happy brokeraging. :)

SS

March 17, 2008, 01:56 PM

Three quarters of US believe recession is here. JP Chase struck the deal with Bear Stearns. Bear Stearns got its buyout offer from Chase workthing only $2 a share. 93% discount on Friday's price. Unbelieve in 60 days the stock had a nose drive.

One World

March 18, 2008, 08:22 PM

Three quarters of the top economists including Wall Street Journal CEO believed that country went into a recession. But as I mentioned earlier a good number of researchers such as the Anderson chapter from UCLA did not agree. But a lot liked to name it Stagflation which is still supported by a large number of the financial analysts. The announcement of recession from the largest stock market and releasing 200 billion USD by FEDs right after that might not be related but according to the definition of succumbing GDP for two consecutive quarters its still not a recession.

The FEDs announced a 3/4 percent cut in the interest rate, the Stock Market getting boosted by 1. release of 200 billion USD to financial institution, 2. Release of sub-prime by Standard and Poor and 3. Today's interest cut after a fall out of Bear Stearns, is surprisingly on the rise.

Its a torrid and confusing time but I liked Bush's supportive comments today that FEDs will stop overcorrecting rather try to help the tilting economy to pass through the period.

Farhad

April 1, 2008, 06:08 PM

Dow Rallies, biggest jump to start off the second quarter since 1938 (http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/Dispatch/080401markets.aspx)

The Market is getting more and more unpredictable by the minute. I know one thing for certain though, Id hate to be into stocks right about now. Hope this means the market has bottomed. Too early to tell...

One World

April 1, 2008, 09:46 PM

Paulson and Bernanke for Nobel Economy Prize. :)

One World

April 5, 2008, 02:18 AM

Now we are in recession. At last Bernanke said the "R" word. 80000 jobs lost in March only and unemployment rate is all time high. What happened to skinny women? Some one won a Jackpot of 136 million and left his 35 year old job in Ford. Don't ask me how its related to economy.

Oil price is hiking like a crazy horse and future is bleak as petrolium industry emphasise producing more and more environment frindly fuel.

Farhad

April 5, 2008, 02:52 PM

unemployment rate is all time high.

WHAT!?!? I'll give you my house if thats even close to true. Its at 5.1% right now, and thats not all that high compared to previous percentages. Plus, I think you took Bernanke's statements a bit too bleakly. Although not a good sign, he stopped short of saying the US has entered a recession, instead opting for "a period of very slow growth"...The oil prices are definitely worrying though...

Stocks have stayed relatively steady for the past couple of days, and some economists say that backs up the claim the market has bottomed. I'm still not too sure...

One World

April 5, 2008, 04:04 PM

Who wants a house at this point? Is it close to foreclosure, :).
About unemployment, Its 5.1% but the rise of 50000 from FEB to MAR must be a record.

About the "r" word

"It is now very clear that the fat lady has sung for the economic expansion. The country has slipped into a recession," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group. Indeed, there is widening agreement that the first recession since 2001 has arrived. Even Ben Bernanke, in a rare public utterance for a Federal Reserve chairman, used the "r" word, acknowledging for the first time this week that a recession was possible.

Here is the SOURCE (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080405/economy.html)

Farhad

April 5, 2008, 11:56 PM

Who wants a house at this point? Is it close to foreclosure, :).
About unemployment, Its 5.1% but the rise of 50000 from FEB to MAR must be a record.

About the "r" word

Here is the SOURCE (http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080405/economy.html)

I understand that Bernanke used the "R" word. My point was that he didnt use it in the context you seem to be implying. You can find his original quotes in this article:

Ben Bernanke stops short of saying US is in recession (http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3671357.ece)

As for the unemployment rate, i guess I misunderstood you. When you said "record highs", i took it to mean record high rates of employment. My mistake. No big deal...

One World

April 6, 2008, 12:27 PM

Thanks for the link and dont worry about the rate mistake.
After all 80000 in a month is an awful big number for recent past during the time span since the last recession of 2001.

I am not sure which one happened first. Bernanke addressing UK-based journalists or the private confidential dinner the article I posted claims.

But what I understand there is no fixed definition in economics. A definition may change based on the situation. Theoritically the "r" word is not yet reached, by the scale of other measures and key ingredients it has!

Farhad

April 6, 2008, 07:27 PM

Greenspan, the former Fed Reserve Chairman, who i think T_E already brought up, now puts the likelihood of recession at above 50%.
More than 50 percent chance of U.S. recession: Greenspan (http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20080406&id=8443265)
Not important, i know. Slow news day...And Im bored :)

Bhai'era amar,
Gas price is now $3.48 at Little Rock (unleaded 87% Octane). Ekhono memorial day asey nai. Car pooling suru kortey hobey. Couple of years back I could go a month with $65 worth of gas (two cars). Now two weeks I have to spend $85. Yes, with my son's school we are travelling total of 9 miles extra on week days and 12 miles on Sunday's but certainly that can not equate to that much of a jump.

US Dollar'er eh ki obostha? The price hike on everything is at a point that I have reach the savings account.

If only the war some how could be stopped. 9 billion dollars for this year's funding. grrr!!!

akabir77

May 6, 2008, 12:27 PM

T_E bhaI ITS working for me!!!

Me, my wife and my daughter all car pool... but still i am spending twice on gas price...

Majey majeh money hoy haitta bashay jaiga...

Fazal

May 8, 2008, 10:33 AM

Me, my wife and my daughter all car pool... but still i am spending twice on gas price...

I think instead of pulling you need to push the car. Plus isn't "Child Labor" is illigal in Missouri?

SS

May 8, 2008, 11:05 AM

I think instead of pulling you need to push the car. Plus isn't "Child Labor" is illigal in Missouri?

What is Illegal when everything going up...I am thinking of more innovative ways ...holding subway doors and reaching destination by hanging...or brining back BD bus ride experience in NY buses.

http://goodolrodg.net/bangla/20-ontheroad_files/217-boysonthebus.jpg

Tigers_eye

May 13, 2008, 08:52 AM

aam'o gasey sala'o jaitasey.

The signs were there last year. Govt didn't do a jack to counter it. instead they did the opposite to benefit the rich. Now double wammy!! wait till the dollar falls more and the gas price goes up. I foresee riots like atmosphere in big cities. Still people in the rich states would be under denial. Because our commander in chief (with no educational back ground on economics, global finance) thinks we are still in good shape. Hey!! I am giving a tax break. woohoo!!

I think instead of pulling you need to push the car. Plus isn't "Child Labor" is illigal in Missouri?

I didn't knew that lol no she goes to childcare close to our office...

hey I am rich got 1500 from BUSH uncle... is he going to pay every month?

Tigers_eye

July 30, 2008, 10:16 AM

10.615 Trillion National debt.
Deficit for fiscal year is running to 389 Billion. Even last year it was 161.5 Billion.

Thank you Bush and the Warmonger republicans.

Whoever comes to power will face a deficit of 489 billion (projected and could be even more). All time record. Good luck Bush III or Obama.

By the way, these are all govt issued numbers. :)

shaad

July 30, 2008, 10:32 AM

10.615 Trillion National debt.
Deficit for fiscal year is running to 389 Billion. Even last year it was 161.5 Billion.

Thank you Bush and the Warmonger republicans.

Whoever comes to power will face a deficit of 489 billion (projected and could be even more). All time record. Good luck Bush III or Obama.

By the way, these are all govt issued numbers. :)

Well said, Miju. According to ABC (http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/29/abc-without-creative-white-house-accounting-bushs-deficit-is-actually-600-billion/), without "creative White House accounting," Bush's deficit for the fiscal year is actually 600 billion.

Tigers_eye

July 31, 2008, 01:26 PM

Shaad bhai,
dukkher kotha ar ki bolbo. Exxon has a new record profit. Actually for the last few quarters they are upping their record profits every time. Yet they say they are not doing well and will close down (sell out) some gas stations. Kader ki dhuni funi bhujhai?

"This would be the most serious financial crisis that the world has ever dealt with. It is not a time to be playing games," said House Republican Leader John Boehner.

Now we are talking.

cricket_pagol

September 21, 2008, 04:55 PM

"This would be the most serious financial crisis that the world has ever dealt with. It is not a time to be playing games," said House Republican Leader John Boehner.

Now we are talking.

That is exactly what the president is doing... they are pushing $700 billion bail out of the companies with citing much specifics... A blank check is definitely not the solution.

One World

September 22, 2008, 05:51 AM

489 + Some amount I cant recall + 700 + .......... = ?

Doomsday.
Paulson = Simon's Ant
around the ocean of meltdown.

Going back to my favourite commodity, since Thursday most gas stations in Nashville area (http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/09/19/nashville.gas/) were out of gas. I drove to another city crossing Antioch only to find Supreme with 4.25 per gallon. On my way back in Wal Mart there was a big line although I started pulling my hair. I just bought a 10-15 mins await and a little more fun of driving my new car for 6 freaking dollars.

Kabir

September 26, 2008, 12:09 AM

US is going down the hill...and it's time for "Change"...says the black man.

"High stakes talks over $700 billion rescue end in chaos, one day after President Bush warns 'entire economy at risk.'"
Full story:http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/25/news/economy/deal_reached/index.htm?postversion=2008092513

Personally, I know there can be deep repurcussions because of this. But guess what? If I was a US citizen, I wouldn't agree with this bailout plan.

SS

September 26, 2008, 04:21 AM

There is a huge twist in all these chaos...even if you scrutinize you will be they made a "Bush" out of this and also very successful. Yestery the biggest flip flopper Mr Maverick brought up a new plan to look good and put the 'country ahead of his campaign' and said all the talks going on is not worth it. GOP is such a party which is only 'fit' to run this country. Who is Obama?

ammark

September 26, 2008, 04:36 AM

For those in UK, I watched this on BBC World last night http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dyt7b/ .

The rest of the world can listen to it at the link in this page: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/specials/1512_debates/page24.shtml

The portion spoken by the Democratic Congressman Brad Sherman is quite interesting. Which is why I'm not surprised by the current delay... [ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7636943.stm ]

Rabz

September 26, 2008, 01:10 PM

Bush Jnr was always going down in history as one of the most controversial and worst president of america, but i think this whole financial saga will just be the cream and his final nail on the coffin.

Not only he is going down, he is taking everyone else along with him.

BANFAN

September 26, 2008, 01:34 PM

I am really worried, if there is a sharp crash of US $, I'm finished. Since I am contracted & get paid in US $, am thinking if it goes down abruptly what will happen? Just hoping all other currencies (AED & BDT) also fall proportionately or company reconsiders salaries in some stable currency. (Euro/CN :))

US guys have not much problem with that, except inflation, as much as it is with the outsiders earning in US $. But very uncertain times for all I guess, if it leads to global recession. Praying for USA, that everything gets ok.

SS

September 26, 2008, 01:42 PM

Bush Jnr was always going down in history as one of the most controversial and worst president of america, but i think this whole financial saga will just be the cream and his final nail on the coffin.

Not only he is going down, he is taking everyone else along with him.

final nail on the coffin..mate I think you are wrong.he just got resurrected and you will see 'third' term of it. Yesterday 'Maverick Bush' showed a great sign of leadership.

cricket_pagol

September 26, 2008, 02:12 PM

final nail on the coffin..mate I think you are wrong.he just got resurrected and you will see 'third' term of it. Yesterday 'Maverick Bush' showed a great sign of leadership.

SS bhai you so pessimistic... i think McCain's stunt was not well received, now he has to eat his word and go back to debate.

goru

September 26, 2008, 02:42 PM

I'm not really sure why some people have this "it's all Bush's fault" attitude towards the current financial situation. I know it's trendy to blame Bush for everything, but even though his administration has a hand in it, this is really more of a problem caused by greed-induced irresponsibility, not just the financial institutions', but the average American citizen's as well.

In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits.

In addition, banks, thrift institutions and mortgage companies have been pressing Fannie Mae to help them make more loans to so-called subprime borrowers. These borrowers whose incomes, credit ratings and savings are not good enough to qualify for conventional loans, can only get loans from finance companies that charge much higher interest rates -- anywhere from three to four percentage points higher than conventional loans.

''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer. ''Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''

Demographic information on these borrowers is sketchy. But at least one study indicates that 18 percent of the loans in the subprime market went to black borrowers, compared to 5 per cent of loans in the conventional loan market.

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

''From the perspective of many people, including me, this is another thrift industry growing up around us,'' said Peter Wallison a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. ''If they fail, the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.''

Under Fannie Mae's pilot program, consumers who qualify can secure a mortgage with an interest rate one percentage point above that of a conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgage of less than $240,000 -- a rate that currently averages about 7.76 per cent. If the borrower makes his or her monthly payments on time for two years, the one percentage point premium is dropped.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, does not lend money directly to consumers. Instead, it purchases loans that banks make on what is called the secondary market. By expanding the type of loans that it will buy, Fannie Mae is hoping to spur banks to make more loans to people with less-than-stellar credit ratings.

Fannie Mae officials stress that the new mortgages will be extended to all potential borrowers who can qualify for a mortgage. But they add that the move is intended in part to increase the number of minority and low income home owners who tend to have worse credit ratings than non-Hispanic whites.

Home ownership has, in fact, exploded among minorities during the economic boom of the 1990's. The number of mortgages extended to Hispanic applicants jumped by 87.2 per cent from 1993 to 1998, according to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. During that same period the number of African Americans who got mortgages to buy a home increased by 71.9 per cent and the number of Asian Americans by 46.3 per cent.

In contrast, the number of non-Hispanic whites who received loans for homes increased by 31.2 per cent.

Despite these gains, home ownership rates for minorities continue to lag behind non-Hispanic whites, in part because blacks and Hispanics in particular tend to have on average worse credit ratings.

In July, the Department of Housing and Urban Development proposed that by the year 2001, 50 percent of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's portfolio be made up of loans to low and moderate-income borrowers. Last year, 44 percent of the loans Fannie Mae purchased were from these groups.

The change in policy also comes at the same time that HUD is investigating allegations of racial discrimination in the automated underwriting systems used by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to determine the credit-worthiness of credit applicants.

ammark

September 26, 2008, 03:03 PM

Nice dig, goru. Its trendy not just to blame Bush, but anything and everything from Greenspan, to short selling, to derivatives trading to god knows what.

But the signs were always there: a population with a horrible domestic savings rate, high propensity to consume, a government with huge debts, lower taxes, a war to fight, and recently, sluggish economic and employment growth. And you want to loan them money for everything at the same time??

goru

September 26, 2008, 03:08 PM

Nice dig, goru.

Not much of a dig, considering people are talking about this all over blogs and TV, lol. ;)

Kabir

September 29, 2008, 01:40 PM

The Bailout plan has been rejected.

US down further...the stock market is shaking like anything. TSX is down 800 effing points. Crude oil fell over $8 a barrel...

boy...why am I loving it (the crude oil bit)...

BANFAN

September 29, 2008, 01:54 PM

That was sad to watch, Republicans dumping the bill. It means more uncertainity in global ecomony. I even can't imagine how dramatic it will be to watch those big guys crumbling like twin towers.

I do think it will ultimately get through, but how much damage that delay will cause needs to be seen & even if the bill will actually bail out in real sense or not ! Some interesting times for US & world economy.

Zunaid

September 29, 2008, 01:58 PM

It will be signed eventually. Time to pick up a few cheap stocks.

Any soup kitchen stocks to recommend?

Kabir

September 29, 2008, 02:19 PM

As soon as the bailout plan got rejected, crude oil drops by almost $12.

Sweetttt...

goru

September 29, 2008, 02:27 PM

This is a great time to buy in... even a great time for noobs to get into the stock market!

Beamer

September 29, 2008, 02:29 PM

Not good signs at all. The days of unbridled deregulations are over. Been talking to a lot of people all morning and a sense of doom is prevailing everywhere. The market is taking a battering. Buy bonds if you can or gold.

BANFAN

September 29, 2008, 02:35 PM

Not good signs at all. ........................... or gold.

True. The only thing which is a safe investment at the moment.

Real estate could also be one of the good areas, in the long term.

Beamer

September 29, 2008, 02:54 PM

Real Estate in US ? No, No and a big NO. You can't even get a mortgage right now. The cheap mortgages given to people unworthy, the subsequent pkg of that mortgage into securities, then sold to investment banks basically is the root cause of this problem. Govt. essentially is owning houses worth $700 bil! The values of properties has gone down so much that it basically is worthless papers right now.

Ahsan

September 29, 2008, 03:26 PM

Not good signs at all. The days of unbridled deregulations are over. Been talking to a lot of people all morning and a sense of doom is prevailing everywhere. The market is taking a battering. Buy bonds if you can or gold.

Gold!?! one artificially inflated market (housing) to another?

I would rather find some good, financially (good balance sheet, no or less debt) stable companies (time for fundamentals). Interestingly enough, there are plenty out there than putting your money into an artificial investment like Gold.

Just look at JPM, WFC for example...are they shaking a bit in this financial turmoil? JPM nearly touched 52-weeks high just few days back even in this financial crisis!!!

Fazal

September 29, 2008, 03:28 PM

Real Estate in US ? No, No and a big NO. You can't even get a mortgage right now. .

Buy with cash.

Zeeshan

September 29, 2008, 03:35 PM

Buy with cash.

Off topic: Fazal bhai, 10,000 milestone reach korle party diben na?

ammark

September 29, 2008, 03:49 PM

Real Estate in US ? No, No and a big NO. You can't even get a mortgage right now.

Buy with cash.

I think this is a feasible investment though. If I had the ca$h I'd be buying some fricking villas on the Andalucian coast right now. The housing market in the US, UK and Spain has really burst its bubble. I remember two years back the UK housing prices were so inflated, homeowners were going nuts.

Same goes for the US I'd think. A large bungalow down in Miami Lakes wouldnt be a bad idea now. Aaah, tis nice to dream

Tigers_eye

September 29, 2008, 03:52 PM

Gold!?! one artificially inflated market (housing) to another?

I would rather find some good, financially (good balance sheet, no or less debt) stable companies (time for fundamentals). Interestingly enough, there are plenty out there than putting your money into an artificial investment like Gold.

Just look at JPM, WFC for example...are they shaking a bit in this financial turmoil? JPM nearly touched 52-weeks high just few days back even in this financial crisis!!!
In the history of financial dealings has gold price ever went down? I mean in a significant amount that matters?

Gold is the most stable commodity. Nations standing depends on gold reserve. Similarly, a person's standing may also depend on gold reserve not on how debt he or she has incurred via the million dollar houses.

Fazal

September 29, 2008, 04:09 PM

In the history of financial dealings has gold price ever went down? I mean in a significant amount that matters?
.

But then you have to pay Jakat on gold you buy...

I say why don't you donate that extra money instead?

BANFAN

September 29, 2008, 04:45 PM

Gold!?! one artificially inflated market (housing) to another?

Gold is by far the safest item to invest, if you know the position of gold in economics. Though currencies have delinked from Gold, but that remains to be the ultimate thing to turn to when the whole economic buble burst one day. Gold doesn't get devalued like all other comodities do.

Yes, I think this is one of the best time to buy some properties, with Cash ofcourse. This will yeild result when all these economic turmoil settles down. Even it might start going higher immediately, if the bailout plan is passed & implemented.

But you gotto have surplus money to be able to spare for long term if needed. BC B/Millionires might try !! There are a few I guess :)

Ahsan

September 29, 2008, 06:17 PM

In the history of financial dealings has gold price ever went down? I mean in a significant amount that matters?

Gold is the most stable commodity. Nations standing depends on gold reserve. Similarly, a person's standing may also depend on gold reserve not on how debt he or she has incurred via the million dollar houses.

gold price did not go down ever in history does not mean it won't ever!

and for the reserve by nations, no wonder US economy is falling as it only has about $11b worth of Gold reserve!! USA used to have 70% of world gold reserve, which mostly they sold in 70s. Now there's a consensus that USA may have only 7% of world gold reserve!

maybe oil is the new Gold standard?

thebest

September 30, 2008, 08:18 AM

Well Done US Congressmen. Yes I know this is for their political gain rather than fight for the small men.
I do not think US tax payers should pay the gambling bill of some Cow Boy finance manager in NY (BTW I am not a US Citizen). The global melt down of financial system is a myth created by corporate US media. Last time I checked no bank failed in Japan (two of the largest bank Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Mizuhu are Japanese), in Germany, in France, in Hong Kong, in Brazil, in China or in India. Beside US and UK only in Luxembourg some banked failed. BTW this financial meltdown is not new one. It happened in Japan in late 80s and early 90s (Japan is still carrying the scar due to its failure to nationalize, instead took the US policy of giving tax payer money as loan) and in Sweden in early 90s (They nationalize and tax payers is still getting the benefit)
US and its pet dog (read World Bank, IMF) always preached for market to work. So why this time it would be different. Ten years ago Mahathir's intervention was widely ridiculed during Asian financial crisis when Thailnad, Korea, Indonesia economy took a tail spin and still recovering. Argentine government became bankrupt due to IMF introduced market policy.
Talking about saving poor man for the bail out - if US government is so caring sue those CEOs in a summary court; They have enough money in the off shore island. I have no sympathy for the house owners who could not pay the mortgage; if you can not cover the bill; you do not buy. Why taxpayers would pay for your recklessness. If government is so conscious about the poor man, let invest those 700 B$ in a proper social security system like the European and Canadian have. <!-- / message -->

Kabir

September 30, 2008, 08:32 AM

Talking about saving poor man for the bail out - if US government is so caring sue those CEOs in a summary court; They have enough money in the off shore island. I have no sympathy for the house owners who could not pay the mortgage; if you can not cover the bill; you do not buy. Why taxpayers would pay for your recklessness. If government is so conscious about the poor man, let invest those 700 B$ in a proper social security system like the European and Canadian have.

Ditto :up:

The arrogant CEOs don't deserve a penny from the taxpayers.

Beamer

September 30, 2008, 10:40 AM

Gold!?! one artificially inflated market (housing) to another?

I would rather find some good, financially (good balance sheet, no or less debt) stable companies (time for fundamentals). Interestingly enough, there are plenty out there than putting your money into an artificial investment like Gold.

Just look at JPM, WFC for example...are they shaking a bit in this financial turmoil? JPM nearly touched 52-weeks high just few days back even in this financial crisis!!!

Gold is solid. Nothing artificial about it. Not sure where you are getting your financial info.

Yes, good small companies are good, but you must have the correct info before you dive into it.

JP didn't invest in mortgage securities like Lehman. A lot of them did for quick returns. Now, they are sitting on a pile of rubbish.

About buying into real estate with cash : Sure..if you have a few millions lying around then its great news. You can buy a lot of foreclosed properties below their market value. However, if you need mortgage/s to invest in properties now, good luck!

Ahsan

September 30, 2008, 11:55 AM

Gold is solid. Nothing artificial about it. Not sure where you are getting your financial info.

Of course Gold is solid, I have no doubt about it :) But I have doubt about trading Gold as an investment product which does not sound solid to me. It is completely my personal view. I could well be wrong saying Gold is an artificial investment, but that is what I conceived after researching on it.

All these for research on one's own. After all, everyone has his/her own investment strategy. It is hard to tell which is right or wrong at a certain time. Some resources for interested readers,

Yes I agree Gold is solid.
Investing in Gold is solid investment.
We also know that 'Old is Gold'.
Thats means investing Old is like investing in Gold ... which means solid investment.

Thats why I say... why not investging old? I mean older players....
They are solid like gold.

So I say... why not bring it on ... all the solid gold older players... if they can breath... they deserve real treat.... unretire team.... give them solid compensation....make the team solid again.

goru

September 30, 2008, 12:20 PM

Guess what happens when everyone in the world puts all their money into gold...

Fazal

September 30, 2008, 12:28 PM

Guess what happens when everyone in the world puts all their money into gold...

Gold becomes more expensive?

goru

September 30, 2008, 12:35 PM

Gold becomes more expensive?

...and what happens to the economy?

Fazal

September 30, 2008, 12:44 PM

Economy?
Who cares about economy?
But as you asked, letg me try to guess...

economy start staying in Econo lodge from Hyatt?

Ahsan

September 30, 2008, 12:47 PM

Lol
economy?
Economy start staying in econo lodge from hyatt?

Rabz

September 30, 2008, 01:05 PM

When America sneezes, the whole world gets a cold.
Time to see how our paracetamol/panadol works.

This is indeed nothing but a political fiasco and some party is trying to score some freebies.

The bill would eventually go thru, probably after some drama, which the US people love so much.

auntu

September 30, 2008, 04:43 PM

Beginning of end of US. Phase 2 is now going on.

Fazal

September 30, 2008, 09:12 PM

Shokooner doayee goru morey na...

goru

September 30, 2008, 09:42 PM

Shokooner doayee goru morey na...

What did I do to you... :X

ammark

October 3, 2008, 02:22 PM

Bailout plan goes through in Capitol Hill. Woohoo National Debt rises by $2600+ per taxpayer!!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7651060.stm

goru

October 3, 2008, 02:27 PM

Bailout plan goes through in Capitol Hill. Woohoo National Debt rises by $2600+ per taxpayer!!

And Dow drops 200 points instantly, and still heading down...

ammark

October 3, 2008, 02:38 PM

And Dow drops 200 points instantly, and still heading down...

Some are of the opinion though, that if the bailout plan hadnt gone through the Dow would probably drop by a 1000 odd points. In that case this should be the lesser of two evils.

I bet people are making money, trading from this fall as we speak. You busy enlargening your portfolio now?

goru

October 3, 2008, 03:03 PM

I bet people are making money, trading from this fall as we speak. You busy enlargening your portfolio now?

Nah, I wish I had some more cash around to put in the market, but right now is not a good time for me to start gambling (personal stuff). I am just gonna hold on my current positions... I see them all as good long-term investments (mostly V).

goru

October 3, 2008, 03:10 PM

Wow, check this out:

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10057618-54.html

IRS undercover operations: Privacy invasion?

The bailout bill also gives the Internal Revenue Service new authority to conduct undercover operations. It would immunize the IRS from a passel of federal laws, including permitting IRS agents to run businesses for an extended sting operation, to open their own personal bank accounts with U.S. tax dollars, and so on. (Think IRS agents posing as accountants or tax preparers and saying, "I'm not sure if that deduction is entirely legal, but it'll save you $1,000. Want to take it?") That section had expired as of January 1, 2008, and would now be renewed.

Starting with the so-called Anti-Drug Abuse Act in 1988, the IRS has possessed this authority temporarily, with occasional multiple-year lapses. A 1999 internal report said the IRS had 126 "trained undercover agents" working in field offices at the time. This is the first time that such undercover authority would be made permanent.

ammark

October 3, 2008, 03:39 PM

Hehehe... look at the comments on this one http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7650566.stm

One World

October 4, 2008, 11:47 AM

Hehehe... look at the comments on this one http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7650566.stm

So "Yes we can", the next buzzwords or "Hope" might be rather salient.

JonBain

October 4, 2008, 09:37 PM

I would invest money in some poor kids education.
No strings attached.
A little goes a long way.
The $1000 you give him now, may make him a billionaire in a decade or two's time.
He will appreciate it for the rest of his life, and you will always be a welcome guest.

goru

October 6, 2008, 11:22 AM

Well, the DJIA is now below 10,000 ... I don't see any stop to the bleeding... 8000 soon... :X

ammark

October 6, 2008, 03:01 PM

Well, the DJIA is now below 10,000 ... I don't see any stop to the bleeding... 8000 soon... :X

The swings are intense.... 700 points drop and then its risen now by another 300 odd points today alone.

But whats striking is that in exactly 1 year the DOW has fallen from its all time high at 14000 to today's 9534!!!! Its almost lost a 3rd of its value in this past one year! Thats insane!!

WASHINGTON - Americans' retirement plans have lost as much as $2 trillion in the past 15 months, Congress' top budget analyst estimated Tuesday.

The upheaval that has engulfed the financial industry and sent the stock market plummeting is devastating workers' savings, forcing people to hold off on major purchases and consider delaying their retirement, said Peter Orszag, the head of the Congressional Budget Office.

Orpheus

October 7, 2008, 08:23 PM

I knew this would happen. I knew it. I think I made a post long time ago about it too.

I don't think anyone touched this yet but I think Yunus is also responsible for this mess. We should take away his Nobel prize.

Somebody will ask me how.. that I will answer another time. (never)

goru

October 7, 2008, 08:32 PM

I knew this would happen. I knew it. I think I made a post long time ago about it too.

I don't think anyone touched this yet but I think Yunus is also responsible for this mess. We should take away his Nobel prize.

Somebody will ask me how.. that I will answer another time. (never)

Yeah, and that's why you put your gf's money in AAPL when it was 190+ ...

Orpheus

October 7, 2008, 08:51 PM

Yeah, and that's why you put your gf's money in AAPL when it was 190+ ...

that was an attempt to take a short term profit hoping for an upward swing not an investment. Which didn't work. And also after the down ward swing, I also mentioned appl will never reach 200 again. You can ck that thread and read everything. Also just because I bought in one company doens't mean I wasn't negative about the whole market. For example even in this time, if I see significant downward movement in mcdonald's now, I would put my life savings in that company. But I would be careful about financials or techs etc. (as an INVESTMENT but as a trade I would only trade financials now).

I just thought I defend myself. But here is another prediction - this market is not end of everything.. it will eventually go up - so all the strong companies (well known blue chip) that fall with this market gives good opportunities for a buy.

And I will also say bank like C, BAC, Chase will survive and be back :)

Hell, Citigroup will be in 20s in no time :p there anohter prediction.

Orpheus

October 7, 2008, 09:44 PM

by the way goru, I think we are all in deep crap with this economy. But what we should be talking about here is this absurd bail out that just went through. It makes no sense at all for you and I to bail out these multi billionaires in the name of saving the economy. Do they have no idea that this economy is much more complex than just couple of banks struggling to get their money back? Really absurd stuff. I don't know why anyone isn't angry. All that rejection of the bill, then reconsideration and ultimately passing, they all seem like a part of the plan for many to recuperate all the losses, and probably multiply their wealth.

What was the point of SEC to shut down shorting, giving the reason that market is going down due to panicking not fundementals but then a day later president makes a case on national television that economy is going downhill.

Events of this past month smells all very fishy to me. This isn't a free market. This market is CONTROLLED and controlled by some nasty ppl.

peace.

One World

October 7, 2008, 10:29 PM

Glen Beck was so valiant to prove how capitalism died in US and it is dipping into another welfare pit hole as Canada. Although he is very harsh to Obama and his support towards republicans is very fundamental this time he sounded reasonable.

Dow's Gone below 9000 for the first time in 5 years! Its at around 8900 points now. This has been a stock market crash of epic proportions the past 1 year. From an all time high of 14100+ to 8900 now! The fall has been dramatic!! A third of the Dow's value, written off!

8723... A drop of 523. It started almost 200 points higher today. So the drop is actually 700 or so. wow!! Nice volatile market we have.

goru

October 9, 2008, 03:20 PM

-678.91 at close today.... there is just no bottom!

goru

October 9, 2008, 03:34 PM

You know, I've been telling everyone "if you ever wanted to get into the stock market, this is the opportunity of your lifetime" ... and people ask "so today is a good day to buy?" and i say "sure, it can't get much lower" ...

And then it does...

One World

October 9, 2008, 09:53 PM

"should I buy or should I sell"

Well some Indian descent guy in California chose the other way. Now 360 degree saying Asia Pacific Markets are falling and Nikkei average is 10% down than yesterday.

Tigers_eye

October 10, 2008, 09:18 AM

...
Well some Indian descent guy in California chose the other way. Now 360 degree saying Asia Pacific Markets are falling and Nikkei average is 10% down than yesterday.
I read it and that was so sad story. He was insane. He lived in a posh area also. What wrong did the kids, wife and mother-in law do? Why did they have to lose their innocent life? If one wants to suicide then (even though I disagree) go ahead. Don't take others life.

"You are weak and what you seek is weak."

That is why when we lose what we are seeking, we become depressed and sad and think the whole world has fallen over our head.

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Wall Street rebounded from its worst week on record with its best single day ever on Monday, as countries around the world pledged to pour cash into their struggling banks to prop up the global financial system.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI soared 936.42 points, or 11.08 percent, to end unofficially at 9,387.61 while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX jumped 104.06 points, or 11.57 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,003.31. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC surged 194.74 points, or 11.81 percent, to close unofficially at 1,844.25.

Orpheus

October 14, 2008, 04:26 PM

this market is not end of everything.. it will eventually go up -

Hell, Citigroup will be in 20s in no time :p there anohter prediction.

just to gloat :) C hit 19.25 today. less than a week after my prediction when everything seemed all gloomy. Only if I wasn't busy with studies... tsk tsk. Trading is the way to go in this market.

Even in this bad market, there is money to be made.

Tigers_eye

October 15, 2008, 03:33 PM

How much did citigroup end up with now? Dow down 700+ points wow!!

goru

October 15, 2008, 05:47 PM

Daytraders are probably going nuts, while we are just trying to not look at it anymore.

Orpheus

October 15, 2008, 06:21 PM

How much did citigroup end up with now? Dow down 700+ points wow!!

Tiger, I hope it wasn't directed at me. There was a reason why I rushed to make that post about citigroup when it went close to 20.. It's not rocket science.. just take a look at C chart and see how it's trading... And I re-emphasized that it's a trading market, not an investment market.

Market do not recover in a day or two... it takes months and years. Like I said, this is still a bad market (but not end of everything like 29 depression that some people are referring to), so I would INVEST in company like Mcdonald's if market bring down its price.. and Trade financials...

OVer last two months, ppl could have made fortunes trading Cs.... sell around 20.. buy in mid teen. I am sure there are similar stock trading that way but I have been following citigroup for a while now. hence the prediction with confidence :)

Good luck to all.. and hopefully we see greener market in coming days.

One World

October 17, 2008, 09:11 PM

Yahoo!

Number 3 of Post # 43 has come true. Gas has been on 2.99 for all through this week around my locality.

Tigers_eye

October 24, 2008, 02:37 PM

Global recession!! What is that? How will it impact BD? I am happy with the gas price though. $2.49 at certain stations. Some place said they will be selling $2.25 over the weekend.

I think investing on the ones that is getting bailed out would be a good idea. :)

Beamer

October 24, 2008, 02:48 PM

Global recession!! What is that? How will it impact BD? I am happy with the gas price though. $2.49 at certain stations. Some place said they will be selling $2.25 over the weekend.

I think investing on the ones that is getting bailed out would be a good idea. :)

There shouldn't be any immediate impact as we are insulated still from global market dealings. However, if it continues to fester, it will catch up to us. Our main export, the garment industry will take a hit due to the recession in our target markets. Its time to enter the Asian market for our garment industry.

samircreep

October 25, 2008, 05:47 AM

Can someone explain to me why the dollar, unlike the pound and the euro, hasn't been affected by the crisis?

BANFAN

October 25, 2008, 09:30 AM

Global recession!! What is that? How will it impact BD? I am happy with the gas price though. $2.49 at certain stations. Some place said they will be selling $2.25 over the weekend.

I think investing on the ones that is getting bailed out would be a good idea. :)

IMO, Good for short time. With the recession looming up, they will again collapse/struggle. Mind you they have to return the money they are getting now.

Beamer

October 25, 2008, 10:03 AM

Can someone explain to me why the dollar, unlike the pound and the euro, hasn't been affected by the crisis?

Because, despite the global market turmoil, dollar is still the currency of choice when it comes to global trade and inter bank dealings. If China and Japan, the two countries with the max reserve of dollar, decide to dump dollar for Euro, then dollar will crash, but its extremely unlikely since Euro has taken a beating.

One World

December 5, 2008, 08:39 PM

Half-million jobs vanish as economy deteriorates

An alarming half-million American jobs vanished virtually in a flash last month, the worst mass layoffs in over a third of a century, as economic carnage spread ever faster and the nation hurtled toward what could be the hardest hard times since the Great Depression.
Underscoring Friday's dismaying signs of a rapidly deteriorating economy, General Motors announced yet more job cuts, and a record number of homeowners were reported behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure.
Somehow Wall Street found a silver lining, betting that so much bad news would force fresh government action to revive the foundering economy. The Dow Jones industrial rose 259 points.
Staring at 533,000 lost jobs, economists were anything but hopeful. Since the start of the recession last December, the economy has shed 1.9 million jobs, and the number of unemployed people has increased by 2.7 million — to 10.3 million now out of work.
Some analysts predict 3 million more jobs will be lost between now and the spring of 2010 — and that the once-humming U.S. economy could stagger backward at a shocking 6 percent rate for the current three-month quarter.
"The economy is in a free fall," said Richard Yamarone of Argus Research. "It is as if someone flicked off the switch on hiring."
"It's a mess," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/ap/ap_on_bi_ge/storytext/financial_meltdown/30146059/SIG=10kqp6rlg/*http://Economy.com). "Businesses, battening down the hatches, are concerned about their survival and are cutting workers."
President-elect Barack Obama said the crisis "is likely to get worse before it gets better," and no one was going to argue that point. Economists predicted the unemployment rate, which rose to a 15-year high of 6.7 percent in November, could soar as high as 10 percent before skittish employers begin hiring again.

One World

December 6, 2008, 12:02 PM

Now the President-elect

The incoming 44th president opened his address by saying that yesterday’s Labor Department report of 533,000 lost jobs in November was “another painful reminder of the serious economic challenge our country is facing.”
The economic slowdown has been exacerbated by the worst credit crisis in seven decades and is compounded by potential collapse of the U.S. auto industry. Congress will return next week to decide whether to rescue the Big Three car companies.
In addition to investing in infrastructure, requiring energy standards on public buildings and updating health-care practices, Obama said that he will launch a “sweeping effort to modernize and upgrade school buildings,” and will boost broadband deployment across America.

I am not really sure how upgrading school building and boosting broadband service can help auto industries or Detroit to be exact! Are we talking about EZ Pass, Smart Parking and Bluetooth accessories here?

One World

March 6, 2009, 07:20 PM

Joke of the day:

If you put a group of brainiac economists together in a room and told them to create a computer model of a Great Depression 2.0, the key ingredients would probably be a) plunging stock prices, b) collapsing home values, c) soaring unemployment, and d) a banking system on the verge of complete implosion.

Brainiac economists??? Any sophomore year macro student would tell you those exact same things in greater detail.

*sigh* does US News insult our intelligence or are the average laymen really that uninformed?

One World

March 7, 2009, 10:42 AM

Brainiac economists??? Any sophomore year macro student would tell you those exact same things in greater detail.

*sigh* does US News insult our intelligence or are the average laymen really that uninformed?

Now that might be the joke, although I doubt it. The end portion of your assumption seems to be fair to show how unfair those 'Brainiac' - s who vomit stuffs out in the web whenever they can themselves are.

One World

May 3, 2009, 10:01 AM

A Day in Recession (in memory of Vladmamu)
Source: Yahoo the buffoon who wanted to catch the soft Moon

It's a rainy spring morning and Tamara Ogier plants herself at a table in a Spartan room in the Atlanta federal courthouse, computer and tape recorder at hand, ready to hear another day's stories of financial ruin.
Couples facing foreclosure. Down-and-out real estate agents. Merchants who've shut their doors. Some clutch folders, some couples hold on to each other as they sit on pew-like benches, waiting to tell the court-appointed bankruptcy trustee how they ended up deep in debt.
"I understand the assumption that we're the guys in the black hats," Ogier says, but "there are a lot of times when I'm actually able to do a lot of good."
It's a sunny morning 745 miles away, as Jerry Miller tools along Iowa's back roads, grumbling about folks who can't manage their money. He has just one credit card. He has no debts, but at almost 75, he feels he needs to keep working just to keep pace. He wonders, too, if he'll have to sacrifice for other people's mistakes.
"I can't believe because they got themselves in this situation, it's falling on us to pay it back," he says, heading to the first pharmacy where he'll make deliveries on this day. "Lord, you're going to set a college kid loose with a credit card? Buy a house that costs ten times your salary?"
He punctuates his disapproval with his favorite expression: Pffffft.
It's morning in America — but it's not a good morning.
The nation is suffering in a deep recession, there's no denying that: Unemployment is at its highest level in more than 25 years. The auto industry is on the skids. Foreclosure and for-sale signs are as common in some communities as street lights.
And more bleak days seem to be ahead.
Many private economists expect the monthly jobless rate will climb to 10 percent by the end of the year — it already has surpassed that level in states such as Michigan, South Carolina and Rhode Island.
The bankruptcy rate is rising, too. Nearly 1.2 million debtors filed for bankruptcy in a year period ending in April, according to federal court records collected and analyzed by The Associated Press. In March, nearly 131,000 sought bankruptcy protection — an increase of 46 percent over a year earlier.
Those are the numbers. Then there are the people.
This is the story of one day, and how Americans spent those hours in the shadow of economic distress, from worried debtors in a Georgia courthouse to a prospective home buyer in Michigan, from a worker in the Rhode Island food pantry to an Arizona contractor struggling to find jobs.
On this April day, no one person typifies hard times: In California, it's a homeless Army Reservist who joined up when he couldn't find work and sleeps in his 17-year-old car. In Florida, it's a Jaguar-driving pawn shop customer who sells DVDs for gas money. In South Carolina, it's an unemployed factory worker who finds comfort in prayer.
And in Greenwich, Conn., home to hedge fund billionaires, it's David Rabin, who lost his $100,000 job last October as a senior vice president for a small financial services firm. He spends part of his morning in his basement, job hunting.
In better times, Rabin would be preparing for his annual spring golfing trip with three buddies at his condo in Myrtle Beach, S.C. Instead, the 48-year-old Rabin, wearing jeans, a blue hockey sweat shirt and white sneakers, is poring over Monster.com (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/ap/ap_on_bi_ge/storytext/recession_one_day_in_america/31877504/SIG=10kc20ujs/*http://Monster.com) and other online job boards. He sends out 10 resumes a day, but has had few nibbles in six months.
A day earlier, he learned he didn't get a job recruiting members for a gym. That hurt.
"I didn't sleep a freakin' wink," he says. "If I don't fit that job, what the hell am I going to do?"
Rabin's wife, Lauren, has a marketing job. And he receives $476 weekly unemployment — about a quarter of his former salary — that runs out in July. Both checks keep them afloat.
Rabin copes by keeping busy. He and Lauren compile a daily list of chores. Each time he completes one, he checks off a box.
Today's list: Drive his 19-year-old son to school. Search online for cheaper auto and home insurance. (No luck there.) Look for work; his target area has expanded to Buffalo, N.Y., Ohio and Florida — any city where he has friends or relatives. Walk the dog. Buy flip flops for his Florida-bound wife. Work out at the YMCA. Paint the basement.
"You have no idea how humbling all this is," he says. "It's extremely humbling. I'm ready to go to Stop & Shop and start bagging groceries."
"I've been in this situation before and I wasn't nearly as frightened," he says. "This is the Great Recession we're in."
___
But watching Jim Juristy work, you wouldn't know that we're in hard times.
A nursing supervisor in Morgantown, W.Va., Juristy will spend his 12-hour shift at Ruby Memorial Hospital trying to fill jobs, calling, cajoling and charming nurses to come to work.
Not only is Juristy in a relatively secure profession, but he lives in a thriving area (the county's jobless rate is a relatively low 4 percent), home of West Virginia University and some recession-proof employers.
A former coal miner, the 54-year-old Juristy made the unlikely transition in the mid 1990s after his mine closed. With baby boomers aging, he thought health care would be a growth industry. So he went to nursing school.
"I figured I could adapt or become a dinosaur. And dinosaurs became extinct, so I thought I'd darn well better adapt," he says.
On this April morning when WVU Hospitals — which include Ruby Memorial — had 200 job openings, TV news is announcing higher-than-expected March unemployment rates.
Juristy doesn't hear a word. He's telling a supervisor: "We need seven nurses at 11, and we have three. It's a good day!"
He calls charge nurses and approves overtime. He tells his wife, Stephanie, a part-time clerical worker at the hospital, to start calling contractors, a pool of nurses from Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia who earn $42 an hour (but no benefits) by working extra shifts.
When she starts dialing around 10:30 a.m., there are 11 jobs to fill.
___
At the opposite end of the country, in Scottsdale, Ariz., 36-year-old Mark Zimmerman is struggling, too. The contractor's printer spits out an estimate for a project he never would have taken two years ago: replacing concrete blocks supporting a carport.
The numbers aren't pretty: Three days of labor. About $35 an hour for his workers. Another $250 in material. Zimmerman does some fast math on a handheld calculator. He gets 10 percent, so he'll make a meager $109.
"That doesn't cover me for anything — not my time sitting and putting the bid together, not my time driving out to go look at it," he says. "I'm actually losing money."
But Zimmerman wants to make sure his two full-time workers don't leave to find other jobs before the construction industry picks up. He hands the estimate to his assistant.
"$1,594?" she asks, eyebrows raised. "That's it?"
The downturn in construction has rippled across the Sun Belt, from Arizona to Florida, where the pawn shop is often the stop of last resort.
At Best Value Jewelry and Pawn in the working-class town of Fort Pierce, manager Scott Herman first noticed trouble signs about 18 months ago. As construction dried up, so many workers wanted to pawn or sell tools that Herman had to stop accepting them.
In St. Lucie County, the jobless rate in construction hovers around 40 percent; foreclosures (about 10,000 in 2008) more than doubled from a year earlier.
Standing behind glass cabinets in a store filled with diamond rings, pearl bracelets, stereos, televisions, even centuries-old silver Spanish coins, Sherman says he hears a similar refrain.
"I need to make sure my electric bill stays on ... I can't make my mortgage payment."
At 10:55 a.m., Tim Salyer, a 42-year-old unemployed construction worker, proffers an acoustic guitar in a beat-up case. He lives with his mom, who just lost her job as a nurse.
"Trying to hang in there," he says, sunglasses covering his left eye, blinded in a car crash at 16. "There is no work out there."
Salyer pawns his guitar for $50. He'll need $62 to retrieve it.
"I can't believe I gotta part with it. I played it all night last night, so hopefully I got it out of my system. Hopefully, I'll be able to get it back," he says with a heavy sigh. "But I'm riding on reserve in my car. Gotta put a little gas in there."
Outside, Salyer clutches the cash, glancing at his 2004 purple Chrysler. He and his mother can no longer make the $300 monthly payment.
Soon he'll head to the dealership to give it up.
"So long PT Cruiser," he says, wiping his brow in the sun.
___
By late morning, Tamara Ogier, the Atlanta federal bankruptcy trustee, has wrapped up about 30 interviews.
She is a gentle-but-firm interrogator, sifting through the financial records of the debtors, looking for anything of value — a home, a car, a diamond ring — that can be sold to satisfy creditors.
It takes just five minutes to hear how a life has unraveled.
A 40-year-old former accounting consultant, looking forlorn and wearing a button-down shirt and dark pants, tells Ogier in a near whisper that his clothes are all he owns. His business fell off last summer.
"I'm just hoping things will turn around," he says later, adding that he plans to return to school to take more accounting courses.
A Vietnamese couple who owned a hair and tanning salon explain, through a translator, they have a staggering $600,000 credit card debt. The husband was getting free credit cards in the mail, and using one to pay off the other.
Over and over, Ogier calmly asks the same questions: Will they receive any life insurance or inheritance within the next six months? Have they bought a vehicle in the last six months?
These kinds of crushing debts are unimaginable to Jerry Miller, the frugal Iowan. He has never bought a new car and still lives in the house he got for $8,500 in 1960, the house where he and his wife of 54 years, Barbara, raised six kids.
This is a man who once logged every purchase he made in a year — down to a .29 cent pint of ice cream.
As the silver-haired grandfather heads toward another pharmacy on his five-stop, 160-mile route, Miller talks about fiscal responsibility. It's not just about money, he says. It's reputation, too.
"If you've got a good name, they can't take that away from you," he says, jabbing a finger in the air to make a point.
It would have been nice, he adds, if he had a choice about retirement. But Miller says he needs the cash from this 15-hour a week job to pay for health care for himself and his wife.
Just after 12:30 p.m., Miller arrives home in Conrad, Iowa and the veteran of many recessions has some parting words:
"This, right now, is something different," he says. "You've got to have faith in the system. But can you tell me, where did all the money go?"
___
It's just past 1 p.m. in Morgantown, W.Va., and Jim Juristy still needs 10 nurses to cover all shifts.
No sweat.
"If you had 10 people call off in a coal mine, that's a whole unit," he says. We have the resources and the people we can call who are willing to come in. It's an opportunity to make more money. That's why people work."
The search goes on.
___
In San Francisco, Khaaliq Parker, 32, is mounting his own search.
The unemployed auto mechanic is holed up in a cubicle at Career Link employment center in the Mission District, checking e-mail for responses to resumes he has sent out.
"The job market is really tough," he says. "It's crazy. I don't give up."
Parker was laid off a year ago and has been homeless since December. Until then, he had lived in Oakland with his wife and 4-year-old son and her parents, but he says they kicked him out when he wasn't making progress looking for work.
So he sleeps in his 1992 red Mustang.
Today is a good day, all things considered. Parker receives his first $422-monthly workfare assistance check; he washed city buses in the morning to help earn that. He also squeezes by with food stamps and $60 a month from the Army Reserve.
Parker, clad in a gray ARMY T-shirt, joined several months ago to bolster his resume and get job training. He may be headed to Afghanistan within a year. He's resigned to it.
Parker is far from alone. In March, the nation's jobless rate rose to 8.5 percent — more than 13 million Americans. The recession, experts say, has eliminated more jobs as a proportion of the work force than any downturn since 1958.
The crash in the housing market is partly to blame.
Take Joe (no last name, please.) He says he was a well-known real estate agent before the housing bubble burst. Now he's jobless, driving a 2005 Jaguar, carrying some DVDs and a red suitcase-like tool kit into the Fort Pierce, Fla., pawn shop.
"It's sad, it's real sad," he says over his shoulder. "And it's embarrassing."
Moments later he returns, hopping into his Jaguar, looking defeated.
"Got some gas money now," he says, "so I guess I'm doing OK."
Paul Maples quit his job as a medical technician in January and can't find a replacement. Doing odd jobs around his girlfriend's downtown clothing store is not enough.
He enters the pawn shop, hauling a big box of stereo speakers in one arm and a chain saw in the other.
"Fridge is empty," he announces, "but we're getting by."
The news isn't good. The pawn shop dealer has no need for the chain saw. And $15 is his final offer for the speakers.
"No, those are $200 speakers!" Maples protests.
"Sorry, that's the best I can do," the dealer says.
Maples shakes his head in disgust, plunks the speakers in a red wheelbarrow and wheels them down the street.
"Times are tough," he says, "but they ain't that tough."
___
Rhode Island has weathered some of the toughest times in this recession. In March, the state's unemployment was 10.5 percent.
At the Woodlawn Baptist Church, in a poor section of Pawtucket, the number of families visiting the weekly food kitchen has doubled since the winter.
By 3:15 p.m., workers have stacked tables with boxes of red tomatoes and yellow apples, containers of onions, kaiser rolls and whole-grain bread, lemon meringue pie and crumb cake.
Carolyn Profughi, the church clerk who runs the pantry, spends a lot of time listening to other people's troubles.
"You want to try to help them as much as you possibly can," she says. "Some of them bring their children with them — your heart just goes out to these kiddos."
This day, Christine Fuss, 46, sips a paper bowl of Italian wedding soup in the church basement and talks of how she lost her job as a hairdressing instructor last year because of complications from multiple sclerosis. She shares a leaky, bare-bones apartment with her cats and goldfish.
"No food, no money, no help," she explains.
She pauses, holding a spoonful of soup near her mouth.
"Spent out," she continues, adding that she has recently begun feeling desperate.
"There's a lot of God in me," she adds, "because otherwise I wouldn't keep getting up."
Lynette Davis leans on her faith, too. Tonight, the widow joins a friend for a weekly Bible study group at a red-brick church a dozen miles from her South Carolina home, where about two dozen parishioners sit on folding chairs. They begin with a hymn and prayer, then turn to the book of Matthew.
Over three decades, Davis has worked at a now-shuttered Russell Stover candy plant, a textile mill that closed when the jobs moved overseas and an auto parts factory that trimmed its work force — leaving her unemployed since last June.
Finding work in Marion County, where unemployment exceeds 20 percent, seems near impossible. Davis recently enrolled in a technical college, hoping to become a pastry chef.
She's not one to despair.
"I have running water," she says. "I have lights. I have my kids and I have my family. I feel good about life. There is always someone out there worse off than I am. ... I was brought up to know the Lord will make a way and that's what he has been doing."
One day, she says, her light and water bills were due "and I didn't have a dime. I went to the mailbox and there was a check. All I could say was 'Thank you, Jesus.' I know it wasn't nobody but him."
___
As night approaches, Jim Juristy has four open beds and figures the 11 p.m. shift will get by OK if he can just get two more nurses for the West Virginia hospital.
"Actually, this has not been that bad a day," he says.
Enough people call in. At 6:35 p.m., he has reached his goal.
___
Ten minutes later, Ballroom B at the DeVos Place convention center in downtown Grand Rapids, Mich., is humming with anticipation.
About 450 people are waiting to bid on nearly 75 foreclosed homes being auctioned off this night. For the right price, one family's misfortune can become another's American dream.
Auctioneer Mike Carr tries to break the tension with a mock auction, supposedly for a Las Vegas home. When the bidding stops at $1 million, a photo is flashed on a large TV screen — an old flatbed truck carrying a rundown shack. How could someone fork over $1 million for a house, Carr asks, without seeing it first?
Laughter ripples through the crowded ballroom.
Tonight's first property for sale is a mobile home on 3.62 acres. Its previous value: $199,900. The starting bid: a lowly $1,000. Within two minutes, the home is sold for just $15,000.
Next up is one of four houses that Marilyn Heidenfelder wants to bid on — three bedrooms, 2,280-square-feet, valued at $204,000. She's hoping to buy a place for her 41-year-old daughter, a school bus driver and mother of three, who recently lost her house when her mortgage increased $350 a month.
Heidenfelder hasn't told her daughter, so she wouldn't get her hopes up.
The 61-year-old retiree is bargain hunting tonight. She doesn't want to spend any more than $20,000. But the bidding quickly exceeds her limit. The first home she wanted goes for $105,000.
The auction continues at a breakneck pace, with tuxedo-clad men in the audience prowling the aisles, shouting the latest bids to the auctioneer as houses are flashed on five TV screens. Carr doesn't stop for an instant.
Heidenfelder is no more successful when the three other houses she had scouted out are sold. The cheapest one goes for $45,000 — more than twice what she was willing to pay. And it didn't even have a furnace.
Shortly after 7 p.m., she leaves with her $2,500 cashier's check — and without a home. There were $10,000 houses, she notes, but "they were trash."
Heidenfelder is disappointed. "There were too many people," she says. "It was too competitive."
Lynette Davis is heading home, too. Her Bible study is over, the hymns sung, the prayers spoken.
"This takes a lot of things off my mind," she says.
As she makes her way outside, the birds are singing, the leaden sky brightens and finally a glimmer of sun breaks through the clouds.

One World

May 3, 2009, 10:07 AM

My post on December 6th in this thread had that valid question as right after a quarter Chrysler had to go.
Hail Swines - wag the dog.

One World

May 25, 2009, 12:07 PM

Another bizarre article in Yahoo.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Crisis-spurs-spike-in-apf-15339847.html

To me it's over reacting but may be not, may be Water World is looming and there will not be a Postman savior.

Ajfar

May 25, 2009, 08:39 PM

they say nowadays a picture is worth only 200 words

Zeeshan

May 25, 2009, 09:52 PM

This is in loving memory to all those who died while reading post 156.

One World

May 26, 2009, 01:05 AM

Amen to Post # 160. Too bad I did not know about the casualties and too good I myself did not finish reading it completely.

Looming in the future is a high-risk challenge for the economy's rescuer-in-chief: He will have to mop up that money without disrupting a nascent recovery.
Bernanke speaks Friday at 10 a.m. EDT at an annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where he'll look back over the past year of the financial crisis and talk about how the lessons learned can help shape policy decisions going forward.
When, precisely, to pull back the money is an issue sure to surface as Bernanke, his counterparts in other countries, academics and economists meet over the next couple of days at the conference.

Can he survive while challenged to keep the interest rate low, his survival IMPO cannot be at stake as he has got too many friends in the top corporate world ;).
But low interest rate will easily result liquidity crisis causing more volatility in market - the heat is on.