...many many many plane trips and time zones for hiliary...hurray! talk about a politically draining job...not as numbing as the senate where she could plot and plan to make another run in the next eight years...this will remove her from ever running for president in 2016...thank god.

...bam keeps gates as sec of defense...quite a bonus...and an ex bushie...splendid...offensive against the jihading brood continues...aye knew bam would play ball...just when the ad libs thought we would stupidly pull out of mesopoetamia fully....on to waziristan...and send hiliary to talk to the assembly of experts in persia...get the ball rolling...iran is NEAR TERM...

hiliary better get moving and get a good pair of shoes and a good travel bag...she is going to need it... or israel will do the talking for the rest of us...and they won't use words.

wow...aye called you on this a day before the wsj...amazing...stve...you on 3nite? who's ahead now, my man?

New Team, Little Time on Iran

Gerald F. Seib

The foreign-policy team President-elect Barack Obama announced Monday is said to be experienced enough to "hit the ground running." Good thing when it comes to Iran, as time is running short for the new crew to figure out what to do about a nuclear program that seems to have been slowed very little by international efforts to make Tehran play nice.

In the minds of Americans, the Iranian nuclear threat has taken a backseat to the question of what to do about live fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. But it would be hard to overstate the nervousness America's allies in Israel now feel about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In private, Israeli officials are ever more blunt in saying they see time running out before Iran's nuclear potential becomes a nuclear reality that threatens the Jewish state, among others. Once the Obama administration is in place next year, and a new Israeli government takes shape after February elections there, the questions about whether Israel is contemplating military action against Iran will only grow.

Mr. Obama and his nominee for secretary of state, Sen. Hillary Clinton, are hardly without assets in confronting this problem. First, the spectacular drop in the price of oil puts new economic pressure on Iran and creates openings to escalate that pressure. Second, Mr. Obama's shiny image in Europe may give him a honeymoon period where he can win more support there to ratchet up the international pressure.

Meantime, though, an intriguing question confronts the new Obama team: How will the president and his secretary of state resolve their campaign-season disagreement about the virtues of direct American discussions with Iran?

The urgency behind all these matters is rising as the nuclear reality in Iran becomes more clear. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran now has produced some 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, using a network of 4,000 centrifuges working on enrichment. The Iranians probably need to roughly double that to have the basic raw material for a nuclear bomb.

Intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is producing 2.5 kilograms of additional enriched uranium daily, officials say. Do the math, and you'll see that Iran may amass enough low-enriched uranium to have the capacity to make a weapon by the end of 2009.

There's still a distance to go before that material could be turned into a bomb, of course. Low-enriched uranium needs more processing before it is weapons-grade, and turning fissile material into a working bomb is no small feat. It's hard to know how long those steps might take.

But the question is whether simply having enough raw material to appear nuclear-capable would, by itself, change the Middle East. Would Israel be subject to nuclear blackmail from Iran, a country whose leader has suggested Israel should be wiped off the map? Would Saudi Arabia react by using billions of its dollars to launch its own crash nuclear program, starting a daisy chain of nuclear proliferation in the region? Or, perhaps as bad, would the Saudis and others simply give in to Iranian bullying?

Against this daunting problem, the international community's basic counterattack has been economic penalties. The United Nations Security Council has passed three resolutions during the past two years designed to cut trade with Iran in materials with nuclear uses, and to cut the flow of international financing until Iran complies with nonproliferation agreements. On top of that, the U.S. government, working directly with other industrialized countries, has started to cut off private bank lending to Iran, a step that has been particularly useful in increasing economic pressure.

Iran seemed well-equipped to shrug off these outside economic pressures when the price its oil fetched was climbing. The good news for the Obama team is that Iran figures to be more vulnerable to economic pressure now that oil has fallen closer to $50 than $140 a barrel.

The Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Iran's government relies on the oil sector for 85% of its revenue. Soaring oil prices allowed Iran to build up some $70 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, but in an economy in which the government relies on large subsidies to keep the populace happy, those reserves can't last forever.

With the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad already using price controls on food and energy to stabilize the domestic economy, falling oil prices figure to create lots of new pressures. By one estimate, the Iranian government needs $90-a-barrel oil for its government accounts to break even. The question, then, is when economic pressure might become so great that a nuclear program becomes counterproductive.

Making that possibility a reality is more likely if a President Obama can persuade European leaders to step up economic sanctions on Tehran. The Bush administration has managed to persuade the U.N. and European allies to turn the screws tighter on Iran over the past few years. But its ability to ratchet up pressure has been limited, inevitably, by old bruises and grievances born of disagreements over the war in Iraq.

To the extent that allies have convinced themselves that working with a president not named Bush would be easier, Mr. Obama has an opening for a few months to go further in exerting pressure. And a few months just might spell the difference between success and failure on the Iran nuclear front.

...many many many plane trips and time zones for hiliary...hurray! talk about a politically draining job...not as numbing as the senate where she could plot and plan to make another run in the next eight years...this will remove her from ever running for president in 2016...thank god.

...bam keeps gates as sec of defense...quite a bonus...and an ex bushie...splendid...offensive against the jihading brood continues...aye knew bam would play ball...just when the ad libs thought we would stupidly pull out of mesopoetamia fully....on to waziristan...and send hiliary to talk to the assembly of experts in persia...get the ball rolling...iran is NEAR TERM...

hiliary better get moving and get a good pair of shoes and a good travel bag...she is going to need it... or israel will do the talking for the rest of us...and they won't use words.

wow...aye called you on this a day before the wsj...amazing...stve...you on 3nite? who's ahead now, my man?

New Team, Little Time on Iran

Gerald F. Seib

The foreign-policy team President-elect Barack Obama announced Monday is said to be experienced enough to "hit the ground running." Good thing when it comes to Iran, as time is running short for the new crew to figure out what to do about a nuclear program that seems to have been slowed very little by international efforts to make Tehran play nice.

In the minds of Americans, the Iranian nuclear threat has taken a backseat to the question of what to do about live fights in Iraq and Afghanistan. But it would be hard to overstate the nervousness America's allies in Israel now feel about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

In private, Israeli officials are ever more blunt in saying they see time running out before Iran's nuclear potential becomes a nuclear reality that threatens the Jewish state, among others. Once the Obama administration is in place next year, and a new Israeli government takes shape after February elections there, the questions about whether Israel is contemplating military action against Iran will only grow.

Mr. Obama and his nominee for secretary of state, Sen. Hillary Clinton, are hardly without assets in confronting this problem. First, the spectacular drop in the price of oil puts new economic pressure on Iran and creates openings to escalate that pressure. Second, Mr. Obama's shiny image in Europe may give him a honeymoon period where he can win more support there to ratchet up the international pressure.

Meantime, though, an intriguing question confronts the new Obama team: How will the president and his secretary of state resolve their campaign-season disagreement about the virtues of direct American discussions with Iran?

The urgency behind all these matters is rising as the nuclear reality in Iran becomes more clear. The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran now has produced some 630 kilograms of low-enriched uranium, using a network of 4,000 centrifuges working on enrichment. The Iranians probably need to roughly double that to have the basic raw material for a nuclear bomb.

Intelligence estimates indicate that Iran is producing 2.5 kilograms of additional enriched uranium daily, officials say. Do the math, and you'll see that Iran may amass enough low-enriched uranium to have the capacity to make a weapon by the end of 2009.

There's still a distance to go before that material could be turned into a bomb, of course. Low-enriched uranium needs more processing before it is weapons-grade, and turning fissile material into a working bomb is no small feat. It's hard to know how long those steps might take.

But the question is whether simply having enough raw material to appear nuclear-capable would, by itself, change the Middle East. Would Israel be subject to nuclear blackmail from Iran, a country whose leader has suggested Israel should be wiped off the map? Would Saudi Arabia react by using billions of its dollars to launch its own crash nuclear program, starting a daisy chain of nuclear proliferation in the region? Or, perhaps as bad, would the Saudis and others simply give in to Iranian bullying?

Against this daunting problem, the international community's basic counterattack has been economic penalties. The United Nations Security Council has passed three resolutions during the past two years designed to cut trade with Iran in materials with nuclear uses, and to cut the flow of international financing until Iran complies with nonproliferation agreements. On top of that, the U.S. government, working directly with other industrialized countries, has started to cut off private bank lending to Iran, a step that has been particularly useful in increasing economic pressure.

Iran seemed well-equipped to shrug off these outside economic pressures when the price its oil fetched was climbing. The good news for the Obama team is that Iran figures to be more vulnerable to economic pressure now that oil has fallen closer to $50 than $140 a barrel.

The Central Intelligence Agency estimates that Iran's government relies on the oil sector for 85% of its revenue. Soaring oil prices allowed Iran to build up some $70 billion in foreign-exchange reserves, but in an economy in which the government relies on large subsidies to keep the populace happy, those reserves can't last forever.

With the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad already using price controls on food and energy to stabilize the domestic economy, falling oil prices figure to create lots of new pressures. By one estimate, the Iranian government needs $90-a-barrel oil for its government accounts to break even. The question, then, is when economic pressure might become so great that a nuclear program becomes counterproductive.

Making that possibility a reality is more likely if a President Obama can persuade European leaders to step up economic sanctions on Tehran. The Bush administration has managed to persuade the U.N. and European allies to turn the screws tighter on Iran over the past few years. But its ability to ratchet up pressure has been limited, inevitably, by old bruises and grievances born of disagreements over the war in Iraq.

To the extent that allies have convinced themselves that working with a president not named Bush would be easier, Mr. Obama has an opening for a few months to go further in exerting pressure. And a few months just might spell the difference between success and failure on the Iran nuclear front.

you "called" nothing. but you have serious credd when it come to ability, and willingness, post news articles.