U.S. 2015 wheat carryover up 6% from May but down 3% from previous year.

BakingBusiness.com,
6/11/2014

by Laura Lloyd

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its June 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected 2014-15 carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2015, at 574 million bus, up 34 million bus, or 6%, from 540 million bus projected in May, but down 19 million bus, or 3%, from 593 million bus on June 1, 2014.

U.S.D.A. wheat carryover numbers were above the average of trade expectations that were near 550 million bus for 2015 and 588 million bus for 2014.

Total wheat production in 2014 was projected at 1,942 million bus, compared with 1,963 million bus projected in May and 2,130 million bus in 2013. Wheat imports were projected at 160 million bus, unchanged from May and down 5 million bus from 170 million bus last year. Total wheat supply was projected at 2,695 million bus, down 11 million bus from May and down 323 million bus, or 11%, from 3,018 million bus last year.

Total wheat use in 2014-15 was projected at 2,121 million bus, down 45 million bus from May and compared with 2,424 million bus in 2013-14. Feed and residual use was projected at 160 million bus, down 10 million bus from May and down 60 million bus from 2013-14. Wheat exports were projected at 925 million bus, down from 950 million bus in May and 1,180 million bus in 2013-14.

All 2013-14 and 2014-15 corn estimates and projections were unchanged from May except for prices paid to farmers, which were forecast at $4.45@4.65 a bu for the current year, down 5@15c from May, and $3.85@4.55 a bu for 2014-15, unchanged from May.

U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 1,726 million bus, unchanged from May and up 51% from 1,146 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was below the trade average forecast of 1,746 million bus, but the 2014 number was below the trade average of 1,157 million.

U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2015, was projected at 325 million bus, down about 2% from 330 million bus projected in May but up 160% from 125 million bus forecast for Sept. 1, 2014. The U.S.D.A. 2015 projection was above the trade average forecast near 322 million bus, and the 2014 number was near the average expectation of 127 million bus.

U.S. soybean imports were projected at 15 million bus in 2014-15, unchanged from May but down from 90 million bus estimated for 2013-14. Soybean exports next year were projected at 1,625 million bus, unchanged from May but up 25 million from 1,600 million bus this year.

The U.S.D.A. projected 2014-15 global ending stocks of wheat at 188.61 million tonnes, compared with 187.42 million tonnes projected in May and 186.05 million tonnes estimated for 2013-14.

The U.S.D.A. 2014-15 ending stocks projection was above the average trade expectation near 187 million tonnes.

World wheat production for 2014-15 was projected at 701.62 million tonnes, compared with 697.04 million tonnes in May and 713.97 million tonnes in 2013-14, consumption at 699.06 million tonnes, compared with 696.15 million tonnes in May and 703.20 million tonnes the prior year, and exports at 152.08 million tonnes, compared with 151.82 million tonnes in May and 162.75 million tonnes last year.

World corn ending stocks were projected at 182.65 million tonnes for 2014-15 compared with 181.73 million tonnes projected in May and 169.05 million tonnes in 2013-14. The 2014-15 corn ending stock projection was near the average trade estimate of 182 million tonnes.

World soybean ending stocks for the next marketing year were projected at 82.88 million tonnes compared with 82.23 million tonnes in May and 67.17 million tonnes in 2013-14. The 2014-15 projection was near the average trade expectation of 82.5 million tonnes.

Global rice carryover was projected at 110.67 million tonnes in 2014-15 compared with 109.77 million tonnes projected in May and 112.13 million tonnes in 2013-14.