Wednesday, May 29, 2013

The 2012 regular season was completed some 5 months ago – so
let’s take a closer look at my models and statistics, review some of the key
data points, and discuss which indicators are solid when projecting strengths
of certain teams. The first metrics we
will examine are my performance ratings model (PR). Below shows each team, broken down by
offense, defense and total performance.
In addition to those metrics I have also included blended SOS rating (1
is the toughest, and my formula for blended SOS is 75% opponents performance
ratings and 25% opponents record), along with SU wins for each team – the teams
are sorted according to total performance rating.

OFF

RANK

DEF

RANK

TOTAL

RANK

SOS

WINS

DEN

52.2

3

50.4

1

102.6

1

25

13

SF

47.8

5

47.4

2

95.3

2

18

11

SEA

48.4

4

44.9

5

93.3

3

8

11

NE

55.4

1

35.1

25

90.5

4

24

12

HOU

45.2

10

44.2

6

89.4

5

27

12

GB

46.0

8

43.3

7

89.3

6

20

11

WAS

53.1

2

33.8

28

86.9

7

22

10

PIT

39.6

20

47.3

3

86.9

8

31

8

CHI

38.9

22

45.8

4

84.6

9

10

10

ATL

46.4

6

36.4

21

82.8

10

29

13

CAR

45.3

9

37.3

17

82.6

11

11

7

CIN

39.4

21

43.1

8

82.5

12

28

10

BAL

41.7

15

40.0

13

81.7

13

13

10

DAL

42.7

13

38.0

15

80.7

14

7

8

DET

43.2

12

36.9

18

80.1

15

6

4

MIN

42.1

14

37.5

16

79.6

16

6

10

BUF

41.6

16

36.3

22

77.8

17

31

6

NYG

44.3

11

33.2

29

77.5

18

4

9

TB

40.8

17

36.7

19

77.5

18

19

7

SD

36.9

24

40.3

12

77.2

20

27

7

NYJ

33.2

29

42.5

10

75.8

21

17

6

STL

37.4

23

38.2

14

75.7

22

2

7

MIA

34.7

26

40.7

11

75.4

23

21

7

IND

39.8

19

34.9

26

74.7

24

32

11

PHI

39.9

18

34.3

27

74.2

25

14

4

NO

46.3

7

27.5

32

73.8

26

3

7

OAK

36.8

25

35.8

23

72.5

27

23

4

KC

34.4

27

35.3

24

69.7

28

15

2

CLE

32.6

30

36.4

20

69.0

29

9

5

ARI

24.5

32

43.0

9

67.5

30

1

5

TEN

34.3

28

31.9

30

66.2

31

13

6

JAC

30.4

31

31.9

30

62.3

32

16

2

The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the
statistics I utilize to track true team performance. Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game,
80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 played
average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season.

A very important factor when developing any models to
numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per
attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance
in the same stat. For example, if one
was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid
running the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes 6
times for 42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for
100 yards on 20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than
likely team B would represent a stronger running game then team A even though
if you only use the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion. Let’s apply this reasoning to an example from
the 2012 regular season:

DEN
was the #14 rushing offense in the NFL according to my statistics. There was a significant difference
between their yards per rush ranking of #27 vs. their total rushing yards
ranking of #15. Why would there be
this discrepancy? One reason is
likely because DEN was often ahead in their games, and more relying on
their ground game to stall out the clock when the game had already been
decided versus using their rushing attack as their main mode of
transportation during the critical stages of each game.

In addition, SOS is very important; it is actually flat out
critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are before rushing to
state one team is better because their statistics say so. That phenomenon also needs to be applied to
unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams down into
rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use. Once again let’s apply this reasoning to an
example from the 2012 regular season – here are the top 5 rushing offenses
according to my numbers last year, with the corresponding SOS for their opponents
rush defense:

WAS:
#1 rushing offense vs. #26 opponent’s rushing defense

MIN:
#2 rushing offense vs. #15 opponent’s rushing defense

SF: #3
rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense

SEA:
#4 rushing offense vs. #7 opponent’s rushing defense

NE: #5
rushing offense vs. #22 opponent’s rushing defense

After including category specific SOS we can see that
although the Redskins posted the #1 rushing offense in the NFL according to my
stats they accomplished this feat versus the 7th easiest schedule of
opponent rushing defenses; conversely, we see the Seahawks at #4 in rushing
offense, but they performed at that high level vs. the 7th toughest
schedule of opponent rushing defense. As
you can clearly see, including stat/category specific SOS can really assist in
testing the true strength of a team’s performance.

Let’s take a closer look at the table on first page, and
focus on the playoff teams. The top 7
teams made the playoffs, then 3 of the next 4 missed (ATL only team that earned
a berth); the final 4 spots were comprised of teams rated #12 CIN, #13 BAL, #16
MIN & #24 IND – which is relatively in line with the type of team rankings
we see making the playoffs over the last couple seasons. For comparative purposes DEN’s mark of 102.6
was the highest full season rating since this model has been tracking results
commencing in 2008; on the flip side JAC’s rating of 62.3, the worst of the
2012 NFL season, was still above the worst rating of the 2011 season, IND, who
checked in at 58.4. Speaking of the
Colts, see more about their 2012 season.

Next, let’s use the overall performance ratings and compare
those to certain team’s corresponding records – indentifying which teams stand
out for good or bad as that could be a solid indicator of upcoming success of
failure:

PIT
[8-8]: the Steelers were easily the highest ranked team not to post an
above .500 record. For the 2012
Steelers the problem was not on defense, where they continued to post
solid results, checking in at #3; it was an offense that was just #20 in
the NFL, as they struggled through many injuries and an inability to run
the football (rushing offense was #25 in the NFL). In an improving division that has seen
CIN reach the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, along with the
defending champion Baltimore Ravens, they need to get back to their bread
and butter, running the football, to execute a turnaround.

CAR
[7-9]: the Panthers were #11 in the performance ratings, suggesting a
borderline playoff team. However,
their 2012 story was that of a tough schedule – their SOS was #11, with
only two teams ahead of them in the performance ratings facing a tougher
schedule. CAR suffered many tough,
close defeats last season – and if those games flip, and the defense
continues improving, there is a lot to like about CAR’s chances heading
into 2013.

DET
[4-12]: the Lions were the biggest underachieving record team of 2012
posting the third worst record in the NFL, yet settling into the #15 spot
in the performance ratings – which typically corresponds to that of an 8-8
squad. What impacted the
Lions? First was an SOS that was
rated #6 in the NFL – notice no team above the Lions in the performance
ratings faced a tougher schedule.
Secondly and almost of equal importance was a TOM that was (16) on
the season – good for 3rd worst in the NFL. Time and time again we stress the point
about TOM – perform well in that area and your chances for a .500 or above
season are greatly enhanced; perform poorly there, especially amongst the
worst in the NFL and you have no chance at reaching .500.

IND [11-5]: no
question about it the Colts were the biggest benefactors from breaks as
far as records go last year posting 11 wins, and reaching the playoffs in
rookie QB Andrew Luck’s inaugural season.
The Colts rated just #24 overall in the performance ratings – a
spot that does not even correlate to a .500 season, let alone a playoff
berth. What drove their record so
much higher than their true performance?
The #1 factor was their SOS of #32, the easiest in the NFL. Every other statistic I track pointed to
a sub .500 record, so be very aware of a potential big drop by the Colts
in 2013.

Top 5 Offenses:

1.NE:no surprise here as the Patriots and Tom
Brady were rated #2 offensively in each of the prior 3 seasons before securing
the top spot last year. The top rated offense was fueled by a rushing
attack that was ranked #5, passing game ranked #3, and a miscellaneous
statistical bucket I track (for stats that are not either directly related to
passing or rushing such as total first downs, time of possession, turnovers,
etc…..) that was rated #1 in the NFL.
Add it all up and the Patriots were the most robust offense in the NFL
last season – and much more efficient in their rushing attack than many perhaps
expected to see.

2.WAS: another rookie QB, this time Robert Griffin
III, led the Redskins to the playoffs and their best offense rating since I
have been tracking these statistics.
Previously, starting in 2011 and working backwards, the Skins offense
was ranked #24, #29, #22 in those three seasons – which just goes to show what
a dynamic QB can do for a franchise, especially when working with one of the
best offensive minds in the game, Mike Shanahan.

3.DEN: like the Redskins above, the Broncos had not
enjoyed an offense ranked in the Top 20 in any one season since I started
tracking this in 2009 until last season, when new QB Peyton Manning enjoyed a
huge season and led Denver
to the #3 overall offense in the NFL.
Although the Broncos were just #14 in rushing offense, their passing
offense led the NFL, along with their miscellaneous statistics. Look for things to only improve offensively
this season in the Mile High city as top slot WR Wes Welker left the Patriots
to join rival Denver
this offseason.

4.SEA: continuing with the theme of solid QB play for
the top offenses in 2012, the Seahawks, led by rookie QB Russell Wilson, also
make their first appearance in the Top 23 offenses in the NFL since my first
season tracking these statistics in 2009.
Like Brady, Griffin
III, and P. Manning above, strong and smart QB play, along with a balanced
offense led the ‘Hawks resurgence last season.

5.SF: perhaps it’s surprising to see a pair of NFC
West teams among the Top 5 offenses in the NFL – but that is precisely what
occurred last season as just like the Seahawks, the Niners made a move at QB
inserting Colin Kaepernick and the offense took off with his insertion. SF continued with their trademark smash-mouth
football of HC Jim Harbaugh, checking in with the #3 rushing attack – however,
the addition of the athletic Kaepernick really pushed the offense to that next
level, a key reason SF reached the Super Bowl last season. CK is the 3rd first year starting
QB of 2012 to lead a Top 5 offense.

Top 5 Defenses:

1.DEN: most people were drawn to the Broncos
offense believing that is the unit that drove their 13-3 top mark in the NFL
last season (tied with ATL). But when
breaking down the numbers the Broncos defense was the bigger part of the
equation, checking in with the top rated unit in the NFL. DEN truly had a dominant defense during the
regular season checking in with the #1 rushing defense, #3 passing defense, and
the #2 miscellaneous defense. And the
two statistics that are extremely critical to success in the NFL on the
defensive side of the ball, yards per pass attempt allowed and sacks – the
Broncos led the NFL in both areas. With
perhaps playing with a lead in 2013 even moreso than in 2012 look for the
Broncos defense to once again get after the passer, force turnovers, and be among
the best units in the NFL.

2.SF:in 2011 SF had the #4
overall defense in the NFL; in 2012 that unit moved up to #2, only trailing the
Broncos because of a pass defense that was ranked just #7 in the NFL. As a sidebar the Broncos did truly have the
better pass defense last season according to both the statistics, and stat
specific SOS as DEN faced the #16 schedule versus opponents passing offenses,
while SF faced the #19 schedule versus opponents passing offenses. SF was one of only two teams (DEN) to rank in
the Top 7 of all 4 buckets tracked.

3.PIT: second straight season the Steelers posted the
3rd best defense in the NFL, and the fourth straight season that PIT
has posted a total defensive rank in the Top 4.
The Steelers continued playing championship level defense in 2012, but
it was the offense that betrayed them settling in at #20 – the first time they
were outside the Top 13 since inception in 2009. Look for HC Mike Tomlin and his defense to
continue playing strong heading into 2013, and for the Steelers to contend for
at least a playoff berth come December.

4.CHI: the Bears posted their best mark since
inception in 2009, settling in at #4 overall defensively. However, like PIT, CHI’s offense checked in
at #22, which is ironically consistent with each of the prior 3 seasons (’11 -
#21, ’10 - #23, ’09 - #24). Until the
Bears improve on that side of the football they will struggle to compete with
the elite of the NFC – which is a big reason ownership fired defensive minded
HC Lovie Smith and brought in offensive mind Mark Trestman to run the
team. How Trestman communicates and
works with QB Jay Cutler will go a long way to deciding how successful a season
the Bears enjoy in a rugged NFC North.

5.SEA: like division rival SF and
former division rival DEN, the Seahawks are one of three teams to have ranked
in the Top 5 both offensively and defensively last season. The Seahawks defense has climbed the rankings
steadily in each season since 2009 (#22, #21, #12, #5) – and a lot of the
credit for that has to go to both HC Pete Carroll, along with former DC Gus
Bradley (now HC in JAC). New SEA DC Dan
Quinn joins the staff from the Florida Gators where he was DC last year, and
how quickly the team adjusts to his schemes will tell a big part of the successSEA could enjoy in 2013.

That will end the first installment of at least five we will
put together covering the 2012 NFL Regular Season, identifying key indicators
for potential success for failure in 2013.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.