19 posts from January 2008

January 29, 2008

Don't you just love it when we use the word interesting to describe the forecast? The weather will, no doubt, be more exciting over the next few days than we've seen in many weeks... perhaps all year so far. There's a lot to talk about... so lets get started with today.

First... today... a strong cold front will approach the region. This will bring periods of rain and gusty winds. A wind advisory is in place for the entire area. Wind speeds may exceed 45 mph this afternoon & evening. There should be a line of storms form just ahead and along the cold front. These storms will likely, remain below severe limits, but there is a chance that a few of them will grow large enough to tap into the strong upper level winds. When this happens those winds are drawn down to the surface and can reach speeds of 60+mph. Should this happen a few of the storms may be considered severe. Damaging winds will be the threat to be on the look out for. We are under a slight risk for severe storms today.Here are the maps for tornado risk, hail risk & wind risk. You will notice the 30% area for wind risk includes us.

Next... Late Thursday & Friday... another system brings more precipitation. The lastest computer models keep trending the system farther south. Like I explained on yesterday's blog this would mean a greater chance of snow for us. The HPC (Hydrological Prediction Center) has placed the area of measurable snowfall farther south... The following two maps are the percentage chance for seeing of at least 4 & 8 inches or more of snow. Check it out... the first map is the one for at least 4 or more inches. We are near the 40% category. That's the highest chance we've seen in years!

January 28, 2008

More on the weather in a moment... but first I want to say that I had a great time emceeing the Auction and Dinner for the Special Olympics, Kentucky at the Mellwood Arts & Entertainment Complex Saturday evening. What a fun event with so many great people raising money for a great cause. The athlete's explained it much better than I could even begin to. Learn more about the Special Olympics, Kentucky... and get ready to watch us freeze our butts off at the Polar Bear Plunge coming up February 23rd... BURRR! The station recruits several to jump into the mighty Ohio. Do you think I should do it? Perhaps with some encouragement I will!

Let's start by looking at this past weekend. Clouds held tough over the weekend and temperatures did not meet expected highs on Saturday. Frankly, it was much cooler than forecast. And people let me know about it... kinda like I couldn't feel how cool it was. :) Sunday shaped up to be much better and put the forecast back on track.

Clouds have increased today and we'll see a few light rain showers this evening, but the best chance of rain will not arrive until well after midnight. A powerful cold front will bring much cooler air to the region by Wednesday.

Before then, it will bring periods of rain, maybe a thunderstorm, and very strong winds to Kentuckiana on Tuesday. Wind speeds may reach up to 45 mph by Tuesday evening. Though Wednesday looks to be a cooler day it will be fairly calm. The calmness will not last, as more precip moves back in late Thursday... and Friday. And that brings us to what may be the most interested part of the forecast.

Friday.... The la test models trend the low pressure farther south. This would mean a better chance for snow out of the system for us. Here's the deal in why the track plays such an important role. Winds around low pressure are counter-clockwise. Imagine if the low tracks from... say Paducah to Indy... this would be the low is to our northwest and would bring in southerly winds. Precipitation would therefore fall as rain until the low could pass far enough north and west to bring in colder air to change the precip type. Often this happens, but most of the moisture has already fallen. However, if the low tracks just south of us. The low pressure will bring colder air to the area and with moisture increasing this creates a much better scenario for snow. The past few low pressure areas have trended farther north. Will that happen this time? As previously mentioned the latest model output brings the low more south... and as always model consistency is so important. I'll be watching closely over the next few days to see how they trend Friday's system.

January 23, 2008

Temperatures will fall into the teens once again overnight. Wind chills will be near 0 at times. It's not been bad this winter considering the stretch of cold weather days have only lasted a few days for each episode. While we'll warm up for the weekend... the winter is nowhere near over!

January 21, 2008

SNOW ADVISORYTUESDAYTIME: 4:00 AM - 2:00 PMTOTAL ACCUMULATION: 1 to 2 inchesIt's not real impressive, but may be the largest snow we've see so far this season. I'd expect the snow to start falling in Louisville around 6:00AM... With decent ratios I would expect around 2 inches of snow before all is said and done. The question will be if and when the temperature can push above freezing. If this happens, while 2 inches may fall, it would be tough to measure before melting.

I would expect there will be school delays or closings in the morning. It's going to be a tough call for the districts for a couple of reasons. #1... the timing of the snow. Snow may not begin to fall until after the busses would already be on the road. #2... the temperatures. Temperatures should be below freezing through mid morning, but highs are expected to push just above freezing. Stay Tuned!!!

COLD REMAINSThe cold temperatures will linger for much of the week ahead. Reinforcing cold fronts will allow cold temperatures to remain with nighttime lows in the teens for a few of the days. Warmer weather with increasing rain chances will enter the forecast by the weekend.

STATE OF EMERGENCYFulton, New York is under a state of emergency after a weekend winter storm. The city, north of Syracuse, says it declared the state of emergency because of large amounts of snow accumulation and a roof collapse at the Department of Public Works. The building houses snow blowers, salt trucks and other machinery necessary for city workers to respond to the area's snowfall. Over three feet of snow has fallen there. City officials are asking residents to stay off the streets.

January 16, 2008

NOT A BIG DEALThere's not going to be a lot of snow for us. But that doesn't mean there will be no problems. I think as temperatures fall overnight we'll see readings around of just below freezing. This will cause a few slick spots to form, especially on bridges & overpasses. Keep an eye on the thermometer as you head out... reading of 32 or lower will mean possible problems. Check out the images below for the timeline of the forecast!

WEEKEND CHILLThe big chill comes in over the weekend with single digit lows. Daytime highs will remain in the 20s on Saturday & Sunday. This could be the coldest we've seen of the season so far. However, like most LaNina years the variations and swings take place, but rarely last long. Temperatures will begin to moderate by mid next week.

January 14, 2008

It looks like the best chance this season of seeing any snow may arrive late this week. Let's talk about this morning first... what's the deal with people having so many wrecks with a half inch of snow? Slow down, give a little distance and be patient. Too big of a hurry (and I'm often guilty) will get you in trouble!

Mapping It OutLet's start with tomorrow. High pressure will move across the Ohio Valley this will clear skies overnight and allow temperature to drop into the lower 20 by daybreak. You can expect a good amount of sunshing Tuesday. Then, by Tuesday night the high slide to our east and we'll start to see southerly winds. This will provide the warmest day of the week for us on Wednesday with highs in the 40s. The first part of Wednesday will be sunny, but a cold front will bring arctic air to the region later in the week. Ahead of this front clouds will increase late Wednesday.

ThursdayThis is when it gets interesting. Models are not in total agreement with this system and we'll have to see if the two low pressure centers phase much at all over the next few model runs. The first low from the south will bring up moisture that will fall as rain, needed in the southeast. The second low will bring snow to the great lakes region and should pull enough cold air down that our precipitation should fall as snow. It's too uncertain to talk amounts, but an accumulating snow is possible Thursday & Friday. Stay tuned. There is no doubt it will turn much colder behind the front... and another cold blast is showing up in the models for next week. If this pattern continues with the cold air in place for a little while... all we will need are a few storms to roll through to see some SNOW! I'm ready... aren't you?

SNOW IN BOSTONA major winter storm could dump more than a foot of snow around Boston. Emergency officials across Massachusetts are taking this storm very seriously. Classes are cancelled and snow warnings are in effect. Airlines are already canceling flights.

SNOW IN MAINEA heavy snow warning for much of Maine. Up to 10 inches of snowfall is possible along the coast. The snow storm has also forced several schools to shut down and caused airport flight delays and cancellations.

January 12, 2008

FOGGY STARTDid you see that fog this morning? It was clear when I left Louisville, but at about Mt. Washington on 31E the fog was incredible and stayed thick all the way through Bullitt, Spencer & Nelson Counties. Surprisingly, it was almost noon and the sun was up, but having a tough time burning if off. That's what happens when high pressure builds in. The good news is that more wind tonight should keep things stirred up a little more tonight & tomorrow morning.

LOOKING FOR SNOW?There are a couple chances for light snow or at least flurries in the forecast over the next few days. We'll see that first chance tomorrow. Cloudy skies with rain likely Sunday may transition to a period of flurries as the colder air advances and the moisture is depleted. A few flurries will be possible on Monday, but no measurable snow is expected. Another fast moving system will move in on Wednesday brining a good chance for rain to the area Wednesday night... a few snow showers are possible then too in the colder locations. It appears our best chance for any snow may occur late in the week Thursday night & early Friday. The problem with this is that the forecast looses accuracy further out in time. We'll keep an eye on it and see how the forecast holds up over the next few days. Consistency means a lot in computer models.

FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLENational Weather Service Storm Survey Team determined that an EF-1 tornado touched down 2.8 miles southwest of Park City in northern Barren county in south-central Kentucky. The tornado first touched down at 2:02pm CST, and it was intermittently on the ground for 3 miles. Several barns were severely damaged or destroyed, minor roof damage occurred to a nearby house, and numerous trees were uprooted or had their trunks snapped. Thankfully, no one was injured.

January 11, 2008

WHAT A WEEKIt's been one of those crazy weeks...two days with tornadoes... in one week... in January! And the wild weather continues.

GREEN ZONE GOES WHITEThe Green Zone and other parts of Baghdad became one big White Zone early this morning. The city woke up to a little snow. Morning temperatures were unusually low and many saw snow over the capital for the first time in their lives. The winter weather seemed to have a positive effect on the war-torn country...no reported violence as of midday.

INDIANA FLOODINGFloodwaters in northern Indiana are starting to recede following Tuesday's severe flooding. Three people, including two children, died in the flooding. Hundreds of homes were damaged, mostly in the largely rural counties between South Bend and Lafayette. Several homes and roads were still under water in Carroll County, where the Tippecanoe River runs along much of its western border. The National Weather Service says it could take until Saturday for the Tippecanoe to subside back within its banks.

Severe weather is causing rising river levels in certain parts of the country. Many residents of Watseka, in east central Illinois, are having to evacuate after one third of the city is flooded.

WASHINGTON STATE TORNADONobody was hurt when a tornado blew through Vancouver, Washington, Thursday. Power lines came down, trees were uprooted, and shingles flew off buildings. The National Weather Service detected the tornado but couldn't estimate its wind speed.

January 09, 2008

SIR MIX IT UP A LOTI'll be the first to admit that I like "exciting" weather. I think a lot of things fall into the "exciting" category... most of all the not normal events. Yesterday's severe weather would be one of those events and the previous days high temperatures in the 70s.

WHAT'S NEXTNow the focus goes back to something more normal... that's snow. There is a chance for light snow showers late in the weekend and next week. We'll have to see what happens, but colder temperatures will surely grip the region over the next week or so.

AREN'T THESE MODELS PRETTY?Here are the latest computer models (GFS) for next Monday afternoon. You can see that there is not a lot of moisture to work with, but temperatures remain cold through the period.

SEVERE WEATHER REPORTSHere's the latest storm report from yesterday's severe weather. Click on the map and you will see that along the front... both to our southwest and northeast there was more damage reported.

FEW WARNINGSThere was only one severe thunderstorm WARNING in our viewing area yesterday and it was on the far western edge. Northwestern DuBois Co., IN was under the warning at 5:30 yesterday. No damage was reported with the storm.

WINDY CITYThe winds were howling throughout the day. Despite the fact that there were no severe storms locally, the winds were strong enough to cause problems of their own. Our top wind peaked out at 47mph.

WEATHERHISTORYOn this date in 1875 Record cold gripped Kentucky, with readings of -8 at Lexington and -10 at Louisville.