What will hit first? Economic armageddon or Environmental apocalypse?

Since the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis, all the developed world has done is kick the day of market reckoning down the road with more and more money printing. At some point this band-aid won’t be able to stem the pressure building and it will rupture with a backlash that will make the depression look like a week without pocket money.

One of the main concerns behind the scenes of the negotiations to be the next Government was the deep seated belief that the global economy is about to implode.

Since the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis, all the developed world has done is kick the day of market reckoning down the road with more and more money printing. At some point this band-aid won’t be able to stem the pressure building and it will rupture with a backlash that will make the depression look like a week without pocket money.

What will hit first? Economic armageddon or Environmental apocalypse?

It’s difficult to know what will hit us first, the Economic Armageddon or Environmental apocalypse caused by our dangerously warming climate.

I suspect they will both combine to create something beyond our scope to deal with.

When you are getting market spreads like this, panic doesn’t even seem to sum up the proper response. Remember, a spread above 30 points suggests elevated risk and a spread above 40 calls for ‘defensive measures’. Last week the spread was almost 50 fucking points…

The news during the Chinese Communist Party Congress was supposed to be uniformly positive. But the Oct. 19 press conference of Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China’s central bank, was not. After admitting that the country’s high debt was high, he surprised everybody by adding that it was not so high as to cause a “Minsky Moment,” a sudden meltdown of asset prices. It was a fascinating insight into what worries China’s economic leaders and the tough choices they face.

…or it could be the failing Eurozone or Brexit that trigger it, or it could be the sudden realisation on Wall Street that Trump can’t get his tax cuts through.

Add in the sabre rattling over Chinese expansion into the Pacific, Venezuela imploding, North Korea going nuclear, Saudia Arabia launching war on Lebanon or a total collapse in Central Africa and any knock from Climate change could topple the global economy into free fall…

Anyway you want to look at it, the immediate future looks bleak, so what should a Left wing Government on these far away Shaky Isles do about it?

First of all, let’s appreciate the beauty and luck of our distance.

It’s near impossible for refugees to climb into boats and flee here successfully, we have a globally low debt to GDP ratio and we have enough fertile land to feed ourselves.

In short, the tyranny of our distance is going to end up being what saves us while the planet goes into meltdown.

Government will need to look to step in to bail the dairy industry out and help with conversions from dairy farms into growing trees, it will also need to extend that protectionism to first time home buyers who will get swamped by steep interest rate hikes.

Rapid moves to self sustainable energy supplies will be required and a Universal Basic Income will become necessary.

Self sufficiency from power generation to home vegetable gardens will become cultural norms.

This would be a perfect time to allow real advancement of new industries to replace farming like synthetic food production and green technology that is focused on adaptation.

A crisis is an opportunity. Once people see how capitalism has failed them they will demand a difference approach from the new Government, it will be up to the new Government to have the vision to see those demands through.

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The question is will the Labour Party have the courage to kick capatalism in the teeth while it’s down – by which I mean state frankly that the crisis is caused by capatalism and we need something different.

That’s what worries me most about a financial team that is still listening to Michael Cullen, too scared to sieze the moment

There is a third contender Martyn.
US’s strategy for dealing with their escalating debt and off-shoreing of all their manufacturing bar weapons manufacture seems to be to instigate war wherever they can to promote weapons sales. And aren’t they going for it!
Iran might however be more than they bargained for, especially since they can’t persuade their own cannon fodder to front up in the necessary numbers any more, and have to resort to stirring up and arming dissidents in other countries.
As the fallout gets closer to Russia, and Russia is included in their warmongering rhetoric, the prospect of an all out WW3 is on the cards, with no holes barred.
Also China has made it clear that though they will not support North Korea if N K attacks another country, they will defend N K if she is attacked by someone else. U S says all options are on the table to stop N K’s nuke programme, but N K is not going to stop it’s nuke programme until they have the capacity to threaten U S cities and so establish some security for themselves. This is going to require a backdown on the part of the United States of America to resolve without war. Hands up who can see that happening .
No one will be prioritising climate change during that development, and the global financial madness will be remedied by the necessities of war as it was in WW2. But the conclusion is likely to be nuclear in either case and that will postpone global warming with a nuclear winter. And any straggling survivors are unlikely to resume climate changing levels of emissions for some time.
D J S

That’s a bit “doomer” imo. Most likely is that the US (and the rest of the Western world) will capitulate to whatever China demands going forward, simply because there is no other reasonable option – nuclear exchange is not useful for anyone, which is why it hasn’t happened and won’t happen going forward. Thusly, China will become the de facto superpower in the coming years, something the entire world will deservedly have to deal with for good or bad (we created it, after all).

The 3 degrees increase in temperature is something they expect to occur over the next 50 to 100 years (and that’s assuming the incredibly flawed climate models are somehow prognosticatory now given they have been less than useless so far), so I don’t really see that as a remotely pressing problem for any current government (or their voters), who have only short term personally beneficial agendas. That particular can will be kicked into perpetuity.

Make no mistake though, global upheaval is coming – but imo it will be financial, as opposed to military or environmental.

Wages has remain stagnant to falling over the past 39 years or so. Signalling a relatively slow Global economic decline. We get cluster like Greece but those are for communities to worry about. It may be more likely than a lot of things, but it’s much more gradual in onset and somewhat self-correcting. Supply of fuel goes down, prices for fuel get higher, alternative fuels become economically viable. Not to mention government actively constricting use at the margins. 50kph speed limit everywhere, etc.

NZ in particular has a lot of room to adjust and the resources to do it. What fucks NZ is a sudden event. Missile Destroyer of the coast, Sudden drop in bird population leading to deforestation, pandemic. These are the things New Zealand must build up reserves against to immunise ourselves. How we address these things is why we argue with the right.

Now we are going to have a massive social and economic problem to solve in the coming decades. From a business perspective most of the population is simply surplus to requirements. We are reaching the point where, outside of a select few fields, human workers simply don’t add any value to the finished product. How we solve that problem is going to be the major issue of the 21st century.

Natural resource depletion is not going to cause an economic collapse. And don’t even @me about peak oil for the simple reason that we can, with proven technology, rip carbon out of the atmosphere and turn it into petroleum products (gas, jet fuel, plastics, fertilizer, etc.). The only problem with this is well, petrol companies themselves not wanting to share profits with an industry that is fairly energy neutral. So you’d need a central command and control style RMA on roids to have access to enough atmosphere, land, sea area to do all this carbon scrubbing (Aka Communism) and if you wanted to take it global then you will need a central command and control because a price system won’t do it when private companies would have a fit over losing there sabre tooth TIGER!!! (Private capital)

And this is the main reason why China is in a good position, they don’t need to worry about democracy is price mechanisms. Every one pretty much falls in line. Which is why the solutions are likely going to come from China.

In away yes. Hydro-electric has provided reliability, predictability, safety and security. And it’s working and it’s still working. At the same time coal fired power plants are almost non existent in New Zealand. We can not prevent Hydro electric power generation when we see how useful that energy has become. The answer I’ll give is which service is the more efficient and sustainable. Well it’s hydro electric.

And all this maybe hearsay but I think it’s pretty accurate. Over half our exports are traded in the U.S dollar or euros. So if the U.S and Europe do not prosper than New Zealand will be less successful. And these are not problems that can be solved in years, it will take decades to solve because it’s taken even longer to develop to the stage it has. What energy solutions we take, must take a similarly long time to create. And there must be the political will to take the unpleasant steps that must be taken. So we have high debt and budget deficits and if we raise taxes Labour or National may not get re-elected.

So I was thinking what would I do if I were Jacinda and I’d probably raise bonds (IOU’s) with no tax increase and with the bond put them in roads, airports, and rail that are not upto energy standards with of course the supply to match the output in vehicles and transport and bring them upto expectable standards and there for generate activity, workers with work and coins in the pockets and money will begin to flow. Whether this triggers a more optimistic view of the New Zealand economy and triggers further investments I don’t know. NZ has 25 hydro electric power plants now we must live with in those limits.

So replacements for the dams, transformation of the transport network in conjunction with improving every ones participation in the economy just to leave the place in a bit better condition than how we received it are all expectable and achievable goals.

Good stuff Sam but nothing about what we are doing is sustainable in the long run.

To use electricity we have to consume and make appliances, motors and devices which are all unsustainable pursuits. Even recycling uses up more non renewable Natural Resources.

We are addicted to living ( most of us) and continuing our lifestyle or wanting more.

A hopeless position to assume for the long term.

The rest is mere transitory details that keep many occupied well away from the long term reality. Fundamental change from this path is prevented actively by those who could be most effective in promoting necessary change.

Even the obvious changes needed are made too complex and confusing for the public to grasp.

It’s possible to deal with sustainable living with in current public and private systems by carrying out measure which should be well inderstood. One measure that could be instituted immediately is a carbon tax. A carbon tax would at least internalise the wast from the use of carbon. It would impose a great burden on those who would use fossil fuels. It wouldn’t solve the problem but it would be a great step forward. But is there a carbon tax? Not likely. Any government that raises taxes will likely loose the following election to the first party promising to repeal said tax. Even though according to polls almost half the population think it’s a good idea, and that’s with out practically any mainstream personalities advocating it. But never the less almost half the population are interested. And that could be a significant step with in the frame work of existing systems.

Now there is a split emerging over The agreement formally known as TPPA. On the one hand you’ve got the Labourer types saying we want good paying jobs not Mc jobs. And on the other hand we’ve got the Green types saying TPPA bad, unsustainable. And we could go down similar lines and say the same about housing, homelessness and so on. And this is a disagreement between too or more the the coalition governments supporters, Labour, and the Greens. And an NZFirst constituency that wants support for building rail, probably every one thinks that’s a good idea. But will this trigger more trade and investment? The Greens oppose the TPPA so it’s no wonder why when attempts to make lemonade are made sour by taking a hardline stance against the lemons. And I’m like bro, this railway full of sugar will help the medicine go down.

So now the white working class is drifting further to National who are infact there major worse enemy. Literally sticking to the party that really wants to smash them in the face. But they are in with National partly because the environmentalists oppose TPPA. Is there a solution to this… Well there is massive infrastructure projects all around the country that needs done now. All sorts of things need enormous amounts of labour, capital is there, workers want to work. Capital can be raised, no difficulty. And barley a mention. All we can talk about is what Jake Tame asked Jacinda. It’s a sign of social and political systems that are so sick that it can not face obvious issues. New Zealand isn’t quite as sick as the sick man of Europe (The UK.) who still can’t come to terms with the Greenfield fire disaster and we can barley come to terms with the Pike River disaster.

And we can’t deal with this sensibly so we have to tear the coalition government apart over whether to have multilateral trade agreements or bilateral ones. At the same time there is huge demand for labour to do technical things, repair decaying infrastructure. Or even something like weatherisation of homes which is environmentally sound and helpful to the economy, puts coins in workers pockets and gets people moving a bit.

The previous government made choices to bail out South Canterbury Finnance and Air New Zealand. So the government bought controlling stakes in assets deemed of national significance so they could give them back to the owners who screwed everything up in the first place. Well they were choices. And there were choices about who gets to own it, either the tax payer who keeps bailing out the governments mates or the capital who screw everything up. But there were choices just some get advocated more strongly. We could have had South Canterbury Finance stop making stupid property investment loans and instead use those loans to weatherise property. You wouldn’t hear any of this from any one except at the margins by people like me and maybe a couple others but that’s it. And efficient mass transportation. South Canterbury finance with government funds totalling about 1.4 billion could have gone from 10th largest finance company in New Zealand to number 1. But it didn’t. It went to number ZERO. So there are things Government funds are good at and then there are things it’s really good at, like losing a lot of money.

And things like rail are very costly. And decisions have to be made about whether it gets handed over to the workforce or does it get handed over to people who screw things up all the time. As all democratic societies should contemplate.

Oh you all ahven’t heard the latest Antartica scientific reportn released today?

it was mentioned on the newshub on my car radio driving up into the hills towards my ‘safe shelter’

Apparently the latest report confirmed that there is record ice cap loss this year and now scientists have warned “the tippig point” has been reached fr catistropic weather patterns now emerge from the increased ice loss continuing at antartica.

Congratulations to the corporate industrial elitists as you have generated so much CO2 levels in the last 30 yrs to totally screw our planet with your millions of more trucks on our roads now as you destroy rail, and you want to keep burning oil instead of promoting electric vehicles.

Well my advice is; – find a safe place far above the low lying regions!! as you are going to have to ‘move up in the world’ – ‘literally’.

it was mentioned on the newshub on my car radio driving up into the hills towards my ‘safe shelter’

Apparently the latest report confirmed that there is record ice cap loss this year and now scientists have warned “the tippig point” has been reached fr catistropic weather patterns now emerge from the increased ice loss continuing at antartica.

Congratulations to the corporate industrial elitists as you have generated so much CO2 levels in the last 30 yrs to totally screw our planet with your millions of more trucks on our roads now as you destroy rail, and you want to keep burning oil instead of promoting electric vehicles.

Well my advice is; – find a safe place far above the low lying regions!! as you are going to have to ‘move up in the world’ – ‘literally’.

I think you’re right about Brexit/Eurozone. The reason the EU is shaking the tree so hard is that they are broke. They need at least 20 billion quid out of Britain just to keep their nostrils above water. Lloyd Blankfein’s quip about how much time he’ll be spending in Frankfurt won’t seem so funny when he finds his limo besieged by rioting refugees or a horde of hungry Antifa. Fuck I’d pay good money to see that though.

Well done, look who’s beginning to see the wood for trees. If we turn our waka around & head off into completely uncharted waters we will survive, flourish & lead. Sooner or later a drastically reduced global population will get in behind & follow our example. Mediocrity stinks, it’s time for a grand unifying vision (common cause) ~ noble (exemplary) leadership ~ South Pacific greatness.

We can thank John Key for NZ.s weakness, he sold us to USA ,handed us over to the Chinese and then declared NZ has done well under National .
Jacinda is so far not very promising,the NZ dollar has dropped in value ,prices have risen ,not her fault but if shes not going to be the shining light we have been led to believe, then we are no better off than under National.
Maybe we expected too much.
The BRICS alliance seem to be a more favourable option.

If we turn our waka around & head off into completely uncharted waters we will survive, flourish & lead. Sooner or later a drastically reduced global population will get in behind & follow our example. Mediocrity & muddling through is not the answer, it’s time for a grand unifying vision (common cause) – exemplary leadership – South Pacific greatness.

Thousands of refugees are heading towards New Zealand thanks to the leftie Ardern and her mignons. I have some commonsense views on these latest leftie shennanigans.

Antagonising Australia, is just going to get even more of these refugees heading towards NZ reports, published in the media – it’s Aussie’s way of trying to tell New Zealand to back-off from its pro-refugee pronouncements and kiwi-battler attempts to make Australia ‘do the right thing’.

NZ cannot keep trying to embarrass Australia into doing the right thing. After all it took hundreds of years for Aboriginals to finally get an apology from the Aussie Govt after decades of endemic ‘abo-hunt’-mentality and the decimation of aboriginal land and culture. And, what’s worse is that Australia now treats its kiwi immigrants from New Zealand, like second class citizens, almost as bad, or even worse than aboriginals. The very minimum should be reciprocal rights. I blame Chris Hipkins and others for stirring up the hornet’s nest of Aussie politics through the Barnaby Joyce citizenship affair.

Australia has also tried to deflect attention from the kiwi offer of refugee assistance, by stating that Trump will save the 600 refugees on Manus Island. But Trump’s praise of Duterte for his treatment of drug-dealers, is an ominous signal to 600 Manus refugees, of their possible fate if they are accepted into America, the land of the free. Execution? Refusal? Gitmo? A wall around Manus Island?

United Future had a grand following under Peter Dunne and recently with their new Ryan-Gosling-lookalike, Damian Light. But, their base, of commonsense Kiwis, should throw their weight behind ACT. United Future are a spent force and the only way to return to right politics is to vote ACT.

ACT is the only commonsense party left in New Zealand and we will continue to shine light on the truth of international cock-ups like Ardern’s, Turnbull’s, and Trump’s

I agree Patricia, these refugees heading towards New Zealand from Australia, are either being sponsored to come here by a xenophobic Australian Government who don’t want them there, or the refugees are a figment of a right-wing-pro-Aussie-Aussie-Aussie media minority.

A They don’t want refugees anymore, especially illegal ones.
B They are trying to cut costs, which is a Turnbullian thing to do.
C They saw the backlash they got her when they sent unwanted Kiwi refugees back here if the Kiwis had more than a 1 year jail sentence.
D Trump’s a bit busy atm to deal with another unpopular immigration issue.
E The power bill and water bill on Manus was getting a bit expensive.
F Global warming is a big issue and Manus Island is 718 metres above sea level. It could get a bit expensive putting the barracks on stilts.

ACT loves to have a commonsense approach to international affairs. ACT can’t wait to get back into power in NZ, so it can have a commonsense, pragmatic approach to New Zealand’s issues, in the same way that Turnbull is dealing with their issues.

Common sense is a long time against international affairs. Chinese history goes back 5000 years, at least. Europe about the same so 5000 years. America 2 or 3 hundred years. Weighed against that long history and pragmatism features a little bit. So I’m not sure China, India and the rest of Asia, and America can go on at the pace for the next 50 years. I think we can go on at the rate of growth at around 1% to 8%, 8% in the case of China for another 10 years or maybe 20 or maybe 50 years. Then they develop all the symptoms of a militarised and slow down. And growth rate begins to slow down the rate of growth from 11%, to 5%, then barley above 2% as is the case with the U.S, Europe, and New Zealand. So I wouldn’t like to use slogans for now. I think it’s safer to predict 10 years of growth or 15 years.

We want to take advantage of growth. When New Zealand developed bilingualism China was not on the rise. And this is a major issue for a party that thinks every one should be just like rich white pricks. Now China is on the rise. Now we have to go for English as a first language because that connects us to the world of modern sciences, commerce. And that’s made New Zealand what it is today. If we make Chinese our working language we wouldn’t be here today. There wouldn’t be The Daily Blog and you wouldn’t be here. But even with the rise of China what can China do for us?

The answer is the English language opened up the world to us. And we must now be open for business for them to come here. Not just Chinese but the Middle East and every one else who wish to bring commerce to New Zealand. But I incest on learning the native tongue (Te Reo) to maintain our sense of where we came from. The fact that you and I use English doesn’t mean that we are Englishman or an American. I think we must have our sense of self. And that sense of self gives you confidence in yourself and in the group you belong to. So that’s nothing to with the humongous migrant crises. I insist on the native tongue as a special achievement taught in public schools in order for pupils to have self respect and self identification of there adopted Nation.

Now that China is on the rise it pragmatism says to do all this it will be a bonus point.

Always unacknowledged is the fact that the entire financial system is now a byproduct of the global oil sector, and that the global oil sector is in deep shit. …. with prices too high for consumers and too low for producers, which is one of the reasons Venezuela has defaulted on a bond.

Meanwhile, one of the few aspects of life that really matters long term, the temperature of the oceans, is continuing to rise, causing record-low ice cover in the Antarctic.

However, we know that, for the foreseeable future, the environment will continue to be sacrificed, in order that dysfunctional economic arrangements can be propped up a little longer.