Tuesday, 23 February 2016

Here is the same median line drawn in all three markets of the same pivots: ES,NQ & DJ. The upsloping PF shows the first full 100% RL- bang on where we are today and falling away from. Please note the gap to be filled below ( shown in thick fushia pink).
Sugar, Another of the softs that are oversold technically and it is my belief we are seeing a slow change and the begining of a new commodity cycle. While Wheat /carn and beans remain disppointing we have other softs and non ferrous metals starting to bottom...but expect to see sharp moves to the downside before any part of a long term directional change in bias- perhaps late Spring/summer. Nothing to be had yet except short term trades such as Sugar & expect that to retest $Cents/lb 12.50 area ..See previous sugar posts: http://medianlinetrader.blogspot.fr/2015/10/sugar-11-h16-big-picture.html and the major support around the long term LMLP seen below in the montly chart at around 11.00-11.50
Other trends to watch are EURGBP & GBPJPY and the precious metals complex (Au/Ag/Pl/Pa) and on our radar is also the energy complex and of intestest NF Metals: Cu.Al, Ni et al. & watching capital out flows from the equity mkts..

Thursday, 4 February 2016

Setups abound.. big yet subtle changes are afoot and just when you think you will never stop hearing the press banging on about the slump in commodity prices the technical signs all present a slow and steady bottoming process. Wheat and the soybeans and to some extent corn are all looking oversold and technically ripe. Just pull up the 10,15 or 25 year charts and forget looking at the daily charts and get some context. Cocoa is a peach at the moment for a long. Sugar is due to retrace upto 100% and s/b ripe in 3 months or before at 11.25, 11.75 or nearer at 12.45. The USDX looks like there are serious topping out indications. Entries are never easy but our valued subscribers have had more bang for their buck in 2016 so far than in all last year. Gold being just one example that has been posted here in the recent postings as was several entries into short equites.The short S &P positons however remain of dubious long term quality and we expect no easy ride in equities and indeed see a bounce due. For the rest of the agri, non ferrous and prec metals and energy sectors we see great scope. We intend to publish a PDF screen shot weekly of our positions. These are available free from www.commodity-analysis.co.uk

Cocoa and horizontal setups

The controlling "seed swing" germinates on the centre ML as a big "W" dubbya formation before a break up in mid 2015 to the UMLP and 100% RT. The continious futures chart has distorted the low blue pivot- hence both lines are relevent-blue and green- as will be seen and has been seen on the blue touch already...expect to see this low tested and support in the area shaded pink

Pink/magenta area should be watched for long entry

In detail

Gold (see previous post)

Soybeans: break out ...

Wheat.. again a break up should be coming. Look at supp and res from long term ML and RL's