Wednesday, July 29, 2015

2015 Season Countdown: #32 Mike McCray II

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McCray was not expected to contribute much last season with all of the competition for playing time at linebacker. First and foremost, he was behind star linebacker Jake Ryan. Second, the Wolverines had several more experienced 'backers, including Desmond Morgan, Joe Bolden, and Ben Gedeon. McCray was expected to play special teams, which he did well enough in the season opener. He made a leaping block of a punt against Appalachian State that was returned for a touchdown by Gedeon. Despite playing a fair amount on specials, though, the rest of his year was fairly quiet.

The depth chart has thinned a bit this year. Ryan matriculated to the NFL, second-year linebacker Michael Ferns transferred to West Virginia, and fellow second-year guy Chase Winovich moved to tight end in the spring. Those players don't necessarily impact McCray on the depth chart, but their departures from the position group elevate him in importance. McCray won't be a starter this year, but Morgan and Bolden will both graduate after the season, and it would be nice for McCray to get some significant playing time before he's counted on heavily in 2016. He had an upper body injury in the spring that caused him to miss a significant chunk of those practices, but he should be healthy for the beginning of camp.

37 comments:

While I agree in some respects, there's rarely much buzz about third-stringers at any position. That's where he was last year. Then he was an injury casualty this spring. On the plus side, a blocked punt and a tackle for loss isn't a bad season for a third-string linebacker. He didn't play much, but he at least made an impact. Consider that OLB/DE Brennen Beyer had 1/2 a tackle for loss (plus 30 tackles and 1 forced fumble) through 9 starts and 22 total games in 2011-2012.

We get buzz about skill position guys on offense all the time. O'Korn buzz is happening and he's not even eligible. We got/get buzz on DBs like Watson, Peppers, Thomas, etc. We got buzz on Gedeon when he was a freshman "freak". Charlton has been getting hyped up for years now and he was a 3rd stringer too. etc.

There's a very good reason for McCray to have not played yet (the veterans above him and Gedeon look very good) but there should be more talk about him pushing for playing time...

The coaches want to get bigger at inside linebacker, and they want Ross on the outside. I don't really consider him as an option at ILB this year, because I don't think the coaches will play him there unless things get really dire.

Ross has played ILB before. I think it's a question of terminology. In a 4-3 Under, Ross was an "inside linebacker" because he was lined up between the tackles as the WILL. The WILL and the MIKE are both inside linebackers in a 4-3 Under.

When you're talking about a 4-3 Over (which we played last year), you usually refer to the WILL and the SAM as outside linebackers, with the MIKE being the only inside linebacker.

So yeah, Ross had 121 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks as an inside linebacker during his freshman and sophomore years. It just depends on how different people refer to the position.

McCray is somewhere between the 5th and 7th LB (depending on what you think about Gant and RJS, your hopes for the freshman, Winovich's position). His situation hasn't changed: special teams and mop up duty.

Ryan left - but Morgan is back. That's the only thing that really affects McCray. Ferns was a freshman - Michigan brings two off red-shirt (Wagner and Furbush). Michigan has 4 experienced veterans for 2.5 positions, which is all the guys you need. McCray, Gant and the others are likely waiting for next year. Sure, the new coaches might shuffle the depth chart around, but that goes for everyone.

Given the situation, this rank is too high. Guys like Stribling, Canteen, Williams, Godin, Green, Hill, Clark are going to play meaningful downs against Utah, MSU, OSU, - McCray will probably not. Guys like Dawson or Houma will plug in as starters if an injury occurs, McCray will probably not.

Last year's rank was about right (64) and not enough has changed to warrant a jump of 30 some spots IMO. This one's a head-scratcher. .

You're kind of making my case for me elsewhere in this post. The inside linebackers are probably going to be Bolden and Morgan. Gedeon will probably be the primary backup on the inside...

...and then who? Allen Gant can't play inside, and he can't play Buck. Jared Wangler is small-ish and completely inexperienced.

Linebackers rotate a fair amount. In the last two seasons, two of our top guys have missed big chunks of time (Jake Ryan tore his ACL in 2013, Desmond Morgan hurt his shoulder in 2014). Let's say Bolden breaks his wrist or Morgan sprains his ankle. In steps Gedeon, and now you've got McCray playing major minutes behind him. Add in the special teams value, and that's what gets him this high.

Stribling is not a valuable special teams player. He may play minutes (perhaps ahead of Watson), but there are other options at corner like Watson, Richardson, and Jabrill Peppers if things get sketchy enough. Canteen is going to play, but what's the difference between him and Brian Cole or Da'Mario Jones? Williams is going to play, but he's not very good, so he's not valuable. Green is going to play, but Michigan has several other running backs who can get the job done. So on and so forth.

This ranking isn't really about whether McCray is going to play a ton of minutes. It's about the fact that there's very little behind him.

The way I see it: Morgan and Bolden start inside, but Gedeon and Ross can both play there and be very effective. Ross seemed far more effective inside than outside IMO (and I know I'm not alone in saying so.) Ross may 'start' at OLB, but if someone inside goes down he might shuffle inside. The wide range of potential backups there include RJS and Gant. So McCray is competing with those guys too.

I just don't see McCray playing a meaningful role at LB unless multiple guys go down. We have too many better players. The same "very little behind him" applied last year too, even moreso because the only guys then were true freshman. Now they are red-shirt freshman.

Stribling has played meaningful snaps on D the last two years. I don't see why that would have changed this year. We lost 3 senior CBs, one was replaced by Lyons, the others were not. Even IF you think Watson is ahead of Stribling (which is very dubious), you can slot him into say Countess' snaps and Stribling STILL play downs because M lost 3 guys.

Peppers is in the mix here, OK, so one view is that he takes the combined snaps of Countess and Hollowell. Even then it's more like status quo for Stribling. Most people seem to view Peppers as a starter at safety or a hybrid/nickel guy who affects the LB rotation more than the CB rotation.

In other words you need Lyons to beat out Stribling (likely) AND Peppers to play CB (maybe, but it means the scheme change talk is overstated) AND Watson to leap ahead of Stribling (doubtful) in order for Stribling's role to actually go down. None of those things are a lock, some are dubious.

I guess the piece I'm missing is that last year you assumed Morgan AND Ryan were both around...and now only one of them is. Still - the fact that one of them went out for the year (as if they weren't there in the first place) and McCray didn't play speaks to the depth at LB. Hoke overloaded the position.

Jenkins-Stone is not a potential replacement for Ross's new position. Besides, if Jenkins-Stone moves to a new spot, then who plays Buck? You need to count on Mario Ojemudia and then other guys who have never played (Lawrence Marshall, Shelton Johnson, etc.). I don't know if Allen Gant has ever played a meaningful down in his career, and he's not a fit at many spots.

This is what I'm talking about. If you have guys go down at linebacker, there are "bodies" but you're reshuffling people, putting square pegs in round holes, etc. That's not the case at cornerback, where the loss of a Stribling plugs in Watson (in your version). The loss of a Watson plugs in Jabrill Peppers. The loss of Peppers from safety plugs in Delano Hill, who some think is basically a starter anyway. There are options at cornerback, and there are ways to shuffle those guys around without greatly disturbing the talent level on the field.

The move of RJS to RLB/WDE/Buck is a new development. He's never played there before spring. He has been a LB and he has seen meaningful snaps. He's not only a viable candidate, he's probably above McCray in the pecking order. RJS is less of a 'square peg' at ILB/OLB than at RLB/WDE.

You listed the 4 other people who are candidates to play at RLB/WDE. That's plenty. RJS can 'move' back, if he needs to...if he even ever really left or if it was just a spring thing is also TBD.

I can't think of a single one of our LBs that has stuck to one position throughout their career. I don't really see this 'reshuffling' as a major issue for this veteran group.

I see a lot more options at LB than at CB...and I'm a guy who has argued that CB depth isn't that bad. 2.5 LB spots for 4 proven players before you get to talking about McCray. 2.5 CB spots for just 2 very good players (Lewis, Lyons) when Stribling enters the conversation along with Watson, Peppers, and other safeties.

Let's put it this way -- if a starting CB gets hurt: Watson or Stribling are likely to play close to a starting role, OR there's some serious reshuffling of Peppers to the outside and Hill/Clark into the starting lineup. If a LB gets hurt, MAYBE McCray gets snaps (OR RJS OR Ross), but more likely the rotation tightens up a bit and whoever remains at starter between Gedeon/Bolden/Morgan gets the bulk of snaps.

Enough about RJS. Frankly, the walk-on Dan Liesman looks has looked like a better ILB the last couple years. He made zero impact when UM was trying out tons of LB's in '12 and '13. And UM is in trouble if RJS gets a lot of game snaps on the edge. You are wasting your time by making long arguments centered around players everyone else realizes are not viable.

RJS has been proven not to be a player. He had a ton of opportunity his first couple years and did nothing with it. He has looked shaky and un-instinctive in multiple spring scrimmages. Multiple guys in his own class and even younger guys have passed him up in the pecking order. Talking about RJS' potential is absurd at this point going into his final year. Jury is still out on McCray. Colossal difference.

RJS is proven to be a player who plays ahead of McCray. Nobody is talking about his 'potential' to be anything more than a backup at LB, but he's being tried out at WDE/RLB now so he might have more of a role there.

This is the thing I've talked about elsewhere where the guy we see play is deemed bad and the guy sitting on the bench behind that guy is filled with potential. Shane Morris syndrome. In other words, the unknown thing isn't necessarily better than the known thing.

RJS has been better then McCray the last two years and they are only 1 class apart. Yeah, McCray has more upside because he's a year younger and has two years of eligibility left, but we're not talking about a guy like Gedeon who has pushed for playing time here either. That 'upside' is speculative. McCray's like RJS in that he's had to sit behind better players. McCray might break through to show us more than that, but he also might not.

Agree with Painter Smurf. rjs has not a proven anything. He got some snaps last year after being lost in the wilderness for 2 years and did nothing with it. Enough of the hype machine on him.

Still trying to figure out the comments above on ross. UM played a 4-3 which would give you 2 OLB and 1 ILB. Not sure how non "Mikes" are considered ILB in 4-3s. I get it if there is a 3-4 alignment/hybrid.

Literally nobody is hyping up RJS, not even his Mom, at this point. The point is McCray hasn't proven anything either. So far he is behind RJS if playing time is any indication (and it is.)

Mattison said repeatedly that the WLB and MLB spots were interchangeable in the 4-3 he ran prior to last year. Morgan and Bolden played both. Ross played WLB for two years.

To me, last year was an outlier experiment because of the limited personnel options they had. They didn't have a true SDE, they had two solid WDE, they didn't want Ryan to be game-planned away, and so they put him in the middle of the action. Personally, I think the change in scheme had a lot to do with last year's D being relatively mediocre. They'd have been better off rotating Beyer and Clark at WDE and letting Wormley, Henry, etc. plays snaps on the SDE or given more responsibility to Charlton. They'd have been better off sticking Ryan at SAM and keeping Bolden and Ross where they were familiar, etc.

This year seems like it's headed more towards the old model, but with an added dose of aggression (though every incoming DC makes you think that...)

McCray and Gedeon are the two backups who most need to step up and improve this year, They are at the one position where we will have no starters or regular backups returning. If they aren't ready to step in, we will be in deep trouble at LB, and we'll be thin no matter what.

Next year's LB corps looks like a worry spot. I think if we have the good season we hope, with the kind of impact D we hope to have, you'll see some big time LB recruits get interested in Michigan. Hopefully by signing day we can add some talent to the 2016 mix.

It also wouldn't surprise me if Winovich slid back to LB.

Between Gedeon, McCray, Gant, Winovich, Furbush, and Wangler we should be OK at LB, even without considering true freshman.

Unfortunately, not one of the guys we'll have available at LB in 2016 has shown anything on the field yet. Which is why McCray and Gedeon really need to develop this year...and even then, getting three quality starters and a couple of quality backups out of those six is by no means certain. Not that it's THAT big a deal if we're weak at LB next year...it should be the only position group where we have significant losses with no clear replacements.

This panic over the 2016 LB situation--which has been going on across the Michigan interwebs--is confounding.

As mentioned above, the numbers are fine: 3 leave, 3 arrive. At present, it looks like we'll be inexperienced beyond Gedeon, but 2015 hasn't played out yet. As Thunder mentioned, McCray could play.

And besides: Things aren't hopeless just because a position is manned by a first-time starter. The past couple of years have sure made it seem that way, but players on this team are going to start developing.

LB should be fine. Harbaugh does need to get a couple good ones in the next class, so they can't afford a bunch of busts. But I am confident they can get it done. Finding at least competent ILB's is arguably easier doing the same for some other positions.

Since when is "there's X number of guys, so we are fine" a valid argument? The LB group will be inexperienced and, at least by recruiting rankings, not particularly talented. I think we'd all LIKE to see some of the underclassmen get some experience, but with so many quality seniors there aren't a lot of snaps to go around.

The situation isn't as dire as the secondary in 2010 or the OL in 2013-14, but it is a concern. There's an excellent opportunity for a savvy LB recruit to come in and make an instant impact.

The point is that LB is only a "worry spot" next year if McCray and Gedeon look bad this year. I already think Gedeon is pretty good based on his extensive snaps. We'll see about McCray this year. Harbaugh is recruiting a fair number of guys who could wind up at LB, so he is addressing the position needs. Point is that it is too early to call it a "worry spot".

Even if Gedeon and McCray are both good this year, you still need a 3rd starting LB and backups to rotate in. We have 4 seniors graduating from the LB corps and they'll grab the bulk of snaps in 2015.

If the best case scenario is "need to fine 1 new starter and cross your fingers on the backups" that's not so great. The worst case scenario is always dire, but if Gedeon goes down with an injury and McCray doesn't develop it becomes a lot more than a 'worry' and starts heading toward 'debacle'.

Let the season play out...but this is an area to keep an eye on developmentally.

Loss of Ferns was huge. Ace at Mgo wrote no big deal when it happened due to guys like Winovich and Wangler and its "2 years away until he is needed". That's Hoke thinking. That guy was a Harbaugh player thru and thru in attitude.

The other issue was we missed on that GA linebacker last year who Harbaugh worked so hard on (visited mom at work). He would have been a guy you develop 1 year and unleash as a starter in 2016 next to Gedeon and TBD.

The 16 LBs thus far are project types. We are in on a ton of guys but until 1 drops who looked college ready quickly its a big worry. Guys like Jaylon Smith at ND played as true freshman and even studs like that have issues. So anyone counting on a 2017 to walk in on day 1 and play LB for 2016 ...well prepare to be disappointed.

Hopefully they move Winovich back to LB for depth at least and Wangler shows anything. Gant looks like a 5th year transfer and we are counting on this guy (McCray) to start in 16 when he has shown next to nothing for his years on campus.

Here's my question, why are we assuming the previous staff's personal decisions will be the same with this year's staff? I know Mattison is back, but Durkin will be the LBs coach and coordinator. Both Gedeon and McCray are bigger and seem to have a higher upside than Bolden and Morgan. Doesn't anyone think the younger guys have the potential to supplant the veterans?

I'll add that Morgan is underrated by UM fans. He has pretty good instincts in both the run and pass games, and is a good all-around player. His absence was definitely felt last year. Bolden is the incumbent and is apparently a really good practice-player. But there will be enough of a rotation where McCray and Gedeon will get their chances to earn more playing time.