Regarding the story about two Palm Beach County fishermen, whose 21-foot boat capsized after being hit by a 12-foot wave on Sunday afternoon: The marine forecast at that time was for winds of 15 knots with seas 3 to 5 feet. Was the forecast that far off?

Not necessarily. The forecast of the height of the waves uses a formula that averages the one-third highest waves, and calls this the "significant" wave height.

It is wave height most likely to be reported by a trained mariner, but is not the "maximum" wave height that can occur.

The maximum wave height can be double the significant wave height so that a wave of 10 feet could be expected once in awhile.

In the fact the statistics show that the maximum wave height will likely occur about once out of every one thousand waves.

If we assume that the time between waves was about six seconds, the maximum wave height could happen once every hour and a half.

Besides the maximum wave height, waves in the Gulf Stream, which lies very close to northern Palm Beach's coast, can amplify the wave height even further and steepen the wave leading to a much more dangerous condition.

What also likely happened was that the boat probably got "sideways" to the wave direction which means that the wave approached the boat from the left or right side rather than the front or back.

This is the easiest way that capsizing can happen, think of the Poseidon Adventure.

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