European economics post will go to Socialist politician

Opinion: Horse-trading in Parliament after Juncker’s victory

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The influential post of economic affairs for the European Commission will be filled by a center-left politician who may push harder for financial reform and be more flexible in enforcing debt and deficit rules for the euro
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Jean-Claude Juncker, the center-right former prime minister of Luxembourg who is certain to be confirmed by the European Parliament next week as the new head of the European Commission, pledged to the center-left bloc in that body that he would give the key finance portfolio to a Socialist.

It is up to each of the European Union’s 28 member nations to nominate a commissioner, and domestic politics generally plays the decisive role — which political has-been is most in need of a job or would make life easier for the government if they were out of the country.

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Jeroen Dijsselbloem, a leading candidate for economic affairs commissioner.

The Parliament can only accept or reject the candidates, it cannot suggest alternatives. Juncker himself has some leverage because he decides who heads up which commission sector.

It could be that the subtle shift of power toward the European Parliament that marked the selection of Juncker as head of the commission over stubborn opposition from the U.K. is affecting the horse-trading that accompanies formation of a new commission every five years.

Juncker was the “lead candidate” for the European People’s Party, which got the most votes in the European Parliament elections in May, and the parliamentarians closed ranks behind him, insisting he get the top commission job.

It was certainly no coincidence, then, that the second-place finisher, Martin Schulz of the center-left bloc in Parliament, was easily re-elected president of that body for half the five-year parliamentary term.

Now, with Juncker’s commitment to assign the second-most important job on the commission to the center-left bloc, it seems there may have been some more deals involved.

The Brussels rumor mill has Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem and former French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici, both from center-left parties, as top contenders for the job if they are in fact nominated by their governments to the commission.

The role of the finance commissioner has grown in stature as a result of the never-ending euro crisis, as the EU attempts to toughen its bank regulation and move toward some form of banking union.

Also, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and other leaders in peripheral euro countries are asking for “flexibility” in interpreting the rules for the joint currency, and feel a center-left commissioner might be more creative in that regard.

Dijsselbloem has been the head of Eurogroup of finance ministers that manages the EU response to the crisis since Juncker gave up the job in 2013, and could move seamlessly into the commission post.

He has hardly been a firebrand in that role, but the Eurogroup is dominated by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, and the Dutchman might have more independence as a commissioner.

The other plum post, thanks to expanded powers under the Treaty of Lisbon, is the so-called “High Representative” for foreign affairs, a position that Britain’s Catherine Ashton has filled with an extremely low profile for the past five years.

There are any number of potential candidates for that post, including representatives from Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Netherlands.

But it may be that Italy’s Renzi was able to exact that job for his foreign minister, Federica Mogherini, as part of the price for his support of Juncker when the national leaders approved him last month.

Juncker also expressed his concern this week that there would be too few women in the new commission, based on the potential nominees being discussed. After nine women on the outgoing commission under Jose Manuel Barroso, the number could sink to just two or three.

The nine outgoing women commissioners sent a letter to Juncker on Thursday saying he should set a gender quota of at least 10 women for the new commission.

If both the finance and foreign posts go to center-left politicians, that would complicate the task of appointing a successor to Herman Van Rompuy as president of the European Council. While Denmark’s Socialist prime minister, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, has been touted for the job, that would mean three top jobs going to the center-left.

The European Commission historically has been a tool of the national leaders. Whether the new relationship to the Parliament will give the commission under Juncker, which will come into office in November, more flexibility remains to be seen.

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