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Friday, May 14, 2010

Not-So-Grand Compromise

This week Senators John Kerry (D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) finally released the draft energy and climate bill they had been working on with Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC.) From all accounts, it was intended to serve as a response to the various criticisms of the climate bill the House of Representatives passed last summer, but in particular as a means for attracting support from Senators whose primary concerns about energy are focused on US energy security and competitiveness. Unfortunately, events have a way of disrupting even the sagest strategies. A cursory review of the new bill--all I've had time for thus far--reveals the degree to which it has been altered in response to the ongoing Gulf Coast oil spill. In the process, unless I've misread its revised provisions on offshore drilling, the expected "grand compromise" has turned into a poisoned chalice, at least for oil.

Like its climate-legislation predecessors and most major bills from the last several Congresses, Kerry-Lieberman (originally Kerry-Graham-Lieberman) starts out at 987 pages and is likely to grow much larger, as it accumulates support one vote--and thus typically one new provision or modification--at a time. I simply haven't had a chance to read the whole thing in detail, yet. Once I've done so, I'll comment on its other key provisions, including the cap & trade mechanism at its heart, which seems to have been influenced by the "cap & dividend" proposal of Senators Cantwell (D-WA) and Collins (R-ME). With so much attention currently directed at offshore drilling, that's where I focused my brief review.

While the bill was being prepared, there was much speculation about the incentives it would include for expanded offshore drilling, which, along with expanded support for new nuclear power, was regarded as one of the principal carrots to be offered to those in Congress who wouldn't otherwise be inclined to support a standalone cap & trade bill. Whatever form those incentives were expected to take, the bill's skimpy offshore drilling "subtitle" looks disappointing, if not downright negative.

On the positive side, it would extend the same royalty-sharing benefits to states pursuing new drilling that the four main Gulf Coast producer states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama currently receive from oil & gas exploration and production in the federal waters off their coastlines: 37.5% of lease premiums collected and the same percentage of production royalties. This is something that states such as mine, with an official state policy supporting drilling, have been calling for. But while it will be favorably received in Virginia, other states, particularly in the West and Midwest, regard this as an unreasonable diversion of federal revenue. Even if the Deepwater Horizon hadn't blown up, this provision would have been a tough sell.

The rest of the offshore oil subtitle appears to have been hastily modified in response to the spill. Among other things, it offers states a veto over new drilling within 75 miles of their shores. A glance at the map for the planned Lease Sale 220 offshore Virginia shows that at least a portion of it falls within 75 miles of the Delaware and Maryland coasts. Nor do I think this is an unreasonable provision; as we've seen in the Gulf, a spill off Louisiana clearly affects the shorelines and marine activities of neighboring states. By itself, this provision, which I believe was altered from an original 50 mile exclusion, would not rule out a resumption of new offshore leasing and drilling, once the causes of the current spill have been identified and new measures and regulations put into effect to reduce the risk of another occurrence to an acceptable level--however the Congress and administration might specify "acceptable".

The problem lies in Section 1205, which defines the impact studies that must be done prior to opening up an area for drilling. As drafted, paragraph (h)(2) effectively extends the 75 mile limit on the veto rights of non-drilling states, if the government's assessment "indicates that a State would be significantly impacted by an oil spill resulting from drilling activities within an area identified in a 5-year (leasing) plan". Under this paragraph, Florida or Alabama could potentially veto any new drilling off Texas or Louisiana. I'm not a lawyer, but that's what the text appears to say.

Without dismissing the legitimate concerns of neighboring states, this raises all sorts of practical problems. An exchange I had earlier this week with a Maryland-based blogger highlights one of them. He was blogging in support of Senator Ben Cardin's (D-MD) stance against any offshore drilling on the Atlantic coast. However, as I noted in my comment on his posting, Maryland consumed 272,000 barrels per day of oil in 2008, not one barrel of which was either produced or refined in that state. Just how far should offshore drilling be removed in order to satisfy the concerns of a state that is entirely reliant on energy produced by other states and foreign sources, which must bear whatever risks it entails? Is Louisiana far enough away? Is Saudi Arabia?

As compromises go, this one doesn't look very tempting. Unless I've misread the bill's offshore drilling provisions, it appears that their effective result would be to end all offshore drilling, not just in areas that were recently released from long-standing drilling moratoria, but in the long-established zones of the Gulf Coast that are becoming America's energy breadbasket. That would surely qualify as the kind of overreaction to the Gulf Coast spill of which the International Energy Agency has just warned, emphasizing the unintended consequences that we would risk. Perhaps those looking for something in exchange for supporting limits on greenhouse gas emissions will regard the bill's significant support for nuclear power as sufficient, though I'm skeptical. They could probably get the same thing in an energy-only bill, perhaps in exchange for a national renewable electricity standard. As for the crucial source of domestic transportation energy we would forgo if we turned our back on offshore drilling, there is currently no substitute available soon enough, or in sufficient quantities, to make up for its loss.