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How-To Geek

Reports of the PC’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. We’ve all heard that everyone’s just buying tablets and throwing out their keyboards and mice. But if you live in the real world, you see people using PCs every day.

The statistics show that PCs are still selling in large numbers and are used much more than tablets. But we don’t need statistics to see this — we all know that huge amounts of people still use and need PCs.

PC sales are declining fast. Soon, no one will buy them anymore. Everyone’s just buying tablets, and tablet sales are skyrocketing! That’s the established wisdom, anyway. But is that what the statistics really say?

Gartner reports that 82.6 million PCs were shipped in the fourth quarter of 2013. That’s a 6.9 percent drop from the fourth quarter of 2012 and the seventh quarter in a row of declining shipments. This sounds like bad news, but the decline in PC sales has actually been slowing. Gartner believes that PC sales have “bottomed out” — while PC sales are dropping, it’s hardly a market in free fall. But it’s not really the sales that are important — it’s what people are actually using.

StatCounter’s browser usage data for January 2014 shows that desktop browsers accounted for 71.89% of visits, while mobile (smartphones) accounted for 22.42% and tablets accounted for just 5.69%. Most people are clearly using desktop web browsers to access the web. If they’re not, they’re probably using a smartphone browser — tablet browsers are far behind.

But perhaps we’re just looking in reverse. What’s really important is the long-term trend. If tablet sales are accelerating, then tablets may just “kill” PCs.

Here’s the thing: While more tablets are being sold than ever, the growth of tablet sales is slowing. IDC reports that 76.9 million tablets were shipped in the fourth quarter of 2013. That’s a 28.2% growth in shipments over the same quarter in the previous year, but that previous quarter had an 87.1% growth over its previous year. In other words, tablet sales are growing more slowly — sales aren’t accelerating, but are slowing down. Many of these tablets are also cheaper, smaller, lower-end tablets that are even less prepared to replace a PC than premium tablets like the iPad. IDC concludes that “markets such as the U.S. are reaching high levels of consumer saturation.”

And, did you catch that? In spite of all the doom and gloom, more PCs than tablets were shipped worldwide in the fourth quarter of 2013.

We Don’t Need to Replace PCs As Often

IDC used a word — “saturation” — that perfectly describes a big part of what’s going on. You don’t have to replace your computer as often as you used to. There was a time when each new version of Windows, Office, and even your web browser was heavier than ever. You saw a big speed improvement when you bought a new computer. You needed to keep buying new computers, because Windows Vista definitely wouldn’t run very well on that PC you bought when Windows XP came out. Today, Windows 7 and 8 run faster than Windows Vista on the same hardware. Even gaming PCs built years ago can likely still run the latest PC games at high settings.

People just don’t have to replace their PCs as often, so of course PC sales are falling. PCs have reached a point where they’re “good enough.” People aren’t scrambling to upgrade their PCs every few years — they’re replacing them only when they need to. People have more PCs — laptops and even desktops — lying around than ever.

On the other hand, tablets are still a new thing. Many people still don’t have tablets, so people are buying them more and more. If you want a new gadget and you’re perfectly happy with your laptop, of course you’re going to buy a tablet instead. And, like smartphones, tablets are improving faster than ever. Tablets from a few years ago have noticeably worse screens and slower hardware. They’re improving fast, just like PCs used to. You’ll see more of a benefit from upgrading an iPad that’s a few generations old than you will a laptop that’s a few generations old. Eventually, tablets will get to that “good enough” point where people won’t have to upgrade every few years, too. Tablet sales will slow and people will be saying “tablets are dying” because everyone is buying those new virtual reality headsets instead.

So What’s Going On?

Let’s analyze this data using some common sense. In the real world, multiple types of products can coexist for different people.

First, tablets aren’t just a fad. In the past, everyone who wanted to browse the web, send some email, watch YouTube, do online banking, and play simple games needed an expensive PC that required regular maintenance. Now, if someone just wants an easy little device that lets them get online, they can get a tablet. Not everyone needs a PC, and even people who need PCs for some reason may want to use a tablet in their downtime instead.

Second, PCs are still useful. They’re not an obsolete piece of technology. iPads, Android tablets, and even Windows 8 devices with their half-baked “Store apps” are no substitute for real PCs when it comes to doing many things. Whether you’re writing, coding, editing images, doing CAD work, doing other productive work — or even playing PC games — there’s a good chance you depend on a mouse and keyboard. You also depend on having a larger screen — maybe even multiple displays — and the ability to have more than one thing on screen at a time.

People are using tablets, but people are also still using PCs. As usual, the answer is somewhere in between “PCs are dying” and “tablets are a fad.”

What is a PC? The Lines Are Blurring

But what is a PC, anyway? “PC” really just stands for “personal computer,” but it’s become synonymous with Windows, Linux, and even Mac OS X desktops and laptops. Really, smartphones and tablets are just as much personal computers as laptops and desktops are. They run software and are much faster than the PCs many of us grew up with.

This isn’t just a hand-waving distinction. The lines are blurring. For example, is a Surface 2 tablet running Windows RT a PC? Maybe not — it’s just a tablet and can’t run typical Windows desktop applications! But what if you connected a keyboard, mouse, and connected it to an external display? What if you spent all your time using Office applications on the desktop on a large monitor? What about those new 8-inch Windows 8.1 tablets with an Intel chip and a full desktop — are they PCs? If they’re not because the screen is too small and they don’t have a keyboard, what if you connected a keyboard and an external display? Do they stop being PCs when you unplug your peripherals?

It’s not all about Windows, either. Would an Ubuntu Phone be a PC? Of course not, it’s a phone! But what if you plugged that Ubuntu phone into an HDMI port, connected a mouse and keyboard, and used the full Linux desktop on an external display? It’s clearly a PC now — but it’s running on a phone.

Tablets and PCs are growing closer to each other. Tablets are becoming more capable, and many PC laptops are becoming more mobile with better battery life. Microsoft is forcing tablets and PCs together — with mixed success — but Ubuntu is also working on creating a single operating system that can run on your phone and also be your desktop PC with the appropriate peripherals.

In reality, there are more different types of hardware and software than ever. Not everyone is forced to use a beige tower running Windows. But PCs aren’t dying just because people have more choice. Some people will always need large screens, multiple windows, mice, keyboards, and all that other good stuff. Not everything will be done on a 10-inch or smaller touch screen.

If we all end up running powerful software on Android, iOS, or another “mobile operating system” and using devices with large screens, multiple windows, keyboards, and mice — well, then we’re just using a different type of PC. PCs are more than Windows and desktop towers. That said, there’s still a place for both Windows and desktop PCs in this new order.

Great post, Chris. I agree with you 100% on people just simply not needing to upgrade any more. They're plenty fast and seem to last quite a while. Come to think of it, that's why I like desktop PCs so much too. They're also ridiculously easy to upgrade and usually inexpensive to maintain (upgrading a small part here n there).

This is a 100% accurate assessment, no matter how unglamorous it may be to tech bloggers.Of course Tablet sales skyrocketed over the past few years. When you go from ZERO, everything is a 100% gain.Of course PC sales (counting Macs & Linux too) have declined. The market got tighter and equipment got better. PCs last longer. Plus, with the shift to web apps, they don't need to be as powerful.Here's a simple exercise to see if PC's are dying:Get 1 Million Tablet owners in a room (over the age of 12).Ask them to raise their hands if they don't own/use a PC daily.Not too many hands.

The reduction in PC sales is just history repeating itself when Microsoft releases a new operating system that sucks. Gartner reports that global PC shipments fell 10 percent in 2013, returning to 2009 levels, marking the worst decline ever. Businesses and consumers didn’t want Windows Vista (2009), nor Windows 8 (2013). So these unpopular Windows versions lead to falling hardware sales and many hardware manufacturers took a financial hit as people wait for the next version of Windows. Windows 8 was released 16 months ago and now has 10% of the marketshare of all operating systems—one-third of the percentage for Windows XP. Windows expert Expert Paul Thurrott stated that Windows 8 is a disaster and “has set back Microsoft and Windows by years, and possibly for good.” The corollary to that is that Microsoft's mistakes set back hardware manufacturers, some for good.

This doesn't take into account people buying just parts for their computer. I don't buy a PC anymore. I buy the parts and make my own. Now with all the sales on PC gaming compared to console gaming people will buy those over the console games.

Eventually, as tablets become more powerful and compatible with a wider range of software and apps, the use of the PC will be much less.

I don't think anyone disputes that the tablet PC of tomorrow will be as powerful as the desktop PC of today...

But the desktop PC of tomorrow will always be more powerful than the tablet PC of tomorrow. That's just a matter of geometry and physics: you can always stuff more and better hardware in a PC case, and there's something to be said for using 20"+ monitors.

Personally, I think that tablets will become a replacement for laptops, but until some technology comes around that completely replaces silicon processors running Von Neumnan machines, bigger will continue to be better.

Excellent point about upgrades, going back like 10-15 years ago you had to upgrade every couple of years as PCs would get outdated very quickly to the point where even basic stuff like newer browsers and office software would struggle, not to mention the dire driver support that existed in the late 90s early 2000s. I remember buying a laptop in 2006 and it lasted til 2011 until the screen died and it became uneconomical to repair, and during that time I didn't see a need to upgrade, nowadays PCs with basic dual core chips and a couple of gig of ram can easily handle everyday tasks without an issue, unless you need a a powerful PC for work games etc, a cheap old machine is fine.

I've had my current laptop for nearly 3 years, it's a got a basic AMD A6 chip, 6 gb of ram and it does everything I need it to do so I'll probably use it til it dies a death lol

Indeed, Apple's Steve Jobs – not usually one to dismiss a pretty gadget on the grounds of uselessness – once said he'd never launch a touchscreen laptop because of what he called "gorilla arm".

"We've done tons of user testing on this," he said back in 2010, "and it turns out it doesn't work. Touch surfaces don't want to be vertical. It gives great demo, but after a short period of time you start to fatigue, and after an extended period of time, your arm wants to fall off."

It is possible, of course, to position a laptop so that the screen is reachable without lifting the elbows from the desk; but this means bringing it much closer than most people find comfortable visually.

Microsoft's online advice on using a PC safely doesn't mention touchscreens at all – and, ironically, instructs users to avoid just those movements that a touchscreen notebook demands.

A company spokesperson said Microsoft had no advice for users about safe use of the Surface touchscreen, and no comment about possible health issues.”

“Although we reached out to Microsoft for this story, the company did not respond to our request to comment.

In order to touch the display on a notebook with that capability, users either have to fully extend their arm (bad and uncomfortable), lean forward (bad and awkward) or move the display closer (bad for your vision).”

blog/laptopmag/com/are-windows-8-touch-laptops-bad-for-your-health

In order to interact with a touch UI for longer periods of time, I think that you would need something like an eye tracker built into the tablet or notebook.

There are consumer-level eye trackers that are available now, and were demoed at CES.

Look at any interface widget to highlight it, and then touch the keyboard to activate and select it. It can basically turn a non-touch screen into a touchscreen.

The Asus Transformer and Microsoft Surface are the perfect example of how you can have touch screens and conventional pointing devices on the same unit.

Personally, I would use the heck out of a touchscreen device that has the CPU and GPU power of my current laptop; if it was built like the Asus Transformer, that's all the laptop/tablet I'd ever need.

Regardless, my point was that while tablets can replace laptops, there's no way they could ever replace desktops. Desktops will continue to be more advanced than portables for the very reason that they have access to more power and physical space.

I believe that in the future tablets are going to be used by the majority of people while PCs will only be used by companies and geeks. Tablets are so easy to use that people do not need help from geeks anymore. PCs still do.

Nearly everyone with a technical job in development needs multiple systems. However, in the last 5 years or so they've gone away from multiple physical computers to VMs. Now almost all of them have VMs. This is especially true for QA teams, which is a field that's expanding like crazy and we love VMs because you can replace a whole lab full of systems with a single server. Getting VMWare (or similar) on your desktop/laptop is also just a given now.

From my point of view, businesses need more systems than ever before, but they need fewer physical systems. That has to be causing at least some of the slowdown. As we move more toward SAS in the cloud, I'd expect this even more (no need to buy systems for in-house servers), although I don't know how many of those servers will simply be bought by the cloud service providers.

They're designed to be two different experiences...tablets/touchscreens are for quick, relatively simple tasks like checking email, calendar browsing so on. For the long, sit down jobs, keyboard and larger monitor are going to be more desirable. It's going to be hard for tablets to completely kill the desktops on this.

But what is a PC, anyway? “PC” really just stands for “personal computer,” but it’s become synonymous with Windows, Linux, and even Mac OS X desktops and laptops. Really, smartphones are tablets are just as much personal computers as laptops and desktops are. They run software and are much faster than the PCs many of us grew up with.

This right there, hits the nail on the head. It isn't that PCs are dying, its more like the lines that define a PC in the traditional sense is blurring.

Maybe the desktop form factor PC is dying as more and more people are buying laptops and tablets, but its a net effect of zero.

Considering that I've helped about twenty different people with their tablets in the past two weeks and that Amazon had to roll out some of their newer tablets with near instant support built in, people will always need help from tech savy people when it comes to their new tech. Hell, most people just get to a point where how they use tech "works" so they don't change or improve their methods at all and sometimes not even attempting to understand why the how works.

This exactly. I can run three different light linux distros in VMs on my main Linux Mint system at the same time. Personally, I will always prefer on-site server hosting just because it is more secure as well as easier to maintain since any company needing said server should be big enough to support that server completely.

Gaming and again Gaming! We, gamer's, especially fps gamer's would never leave our beloved PC for its power and two main things- a keyboard and a mouse!So the conclusion? PCs will never die.Even if microsoft and all other big companies ever think to kill them.

Thanks. Good. Needed. I and many others knew this instinctively, but I did worry that producers might actually believe the nonsense and begin to wind down. I've just got my 1st smartphone, and it's fun, but I do proper stuff on my desktop. My laptop is old with XP, and is used in bed when it's too cold to sit at the desktop, and is really a readily modifiable backup drive. The desktop is the pilot seat.

but I did worry that producers might actually believe the nonsense and begin to wind down.

I don't think you have to worry about that. Even if the desktop PC market is going to be a smaller piece of the pie, it's still a huge business. No matter how you look at it, the desktop PC industry is big money. When you couple that with the desktop and server software industry, it's even bigger.

If history is anything to go by, the companies making desktop systems and parts will hang on long past the point at which they're irrelevant. By the time you can't parts for your desktop PC, you won't want them anyway.

If you really want to get people excited tell them Microsoft is dead. There will be parties for a year when that day finally arrives!

Not in corporate IT shops. There's a reason corporate IT shops all over the world are using Microsoft solutions, rather than rolling their own or going with FOSS applications. For every one problem you find with Windows or Office, you can find a thing that Microsoftware does that the competition doesn't.

I'm not trying to sound like a fanboi, here... it's just that I've been in and around the industry since pretty much the beginning, and I have watched the rise and fall of many competitors. Despite the things that MS does wrong, they do a lot right, and on the balance, the world of computing is a much better place for the existence of that company.

I do agree with you to a point and like you I have been in this industry since,, well, I guess when 8 Track tapes came out is when I really started turning nerd... All kidding aside though I think we should take a close look at how MS works because the only real way to get people off MS and onto something better is to do just what they do and that is to limit the options so that you have no choice but to do it their way. So if we took the Microsoft approach with everyone that currently relies on this software abortion and stopped supporting it I guarantee that in short order there would have something far better.

You can speculate and assume you are right and I am wrong but in my opinion you can set there and make the claim that we are better off with them then we are without them all you want but the fact of the matter is you cannot possibly know that. I am an optimist and my take on it is we would have been far better off and farther ahead if this thieving idiot named Bill Gates would not have been in the right place at the right time (for him anyway). Bills motto has always been "whoever gets to the patent office first wins".

Personally when they really lost it is when Bill believed whatever idiot told him the NT Kernel system was the direction to go. They should have stayed with DOS but there too, who knows for sure what would have been better, I just know it could be still!

MS... to bad there is already a disease with this acronym, it sounds very fitting in this case.

I do agree with you to a point and like you I have been in this industry since,, well, I guess when 8 Track tapes came out is when I really started turning nerd...wink All kidding aside though I think we should take a close look at how MS works because the only real way to get people off MS and onto something better is to do just what they do and that is to limit the options so that you have no choice but to do it their way. So if we took the Microsoft approach with everyone that currently relies on this software abortion and stopped supporting it I guarantee that in short order there would have something far better.

I don't even know where to begin with that... I think I'll just let your words speak for themselves and move on.