Monday, March 04, 2019

And thus Juan Guaidó returned to Venezuela. Through the normal entry point in Maiquetia airport. He went in a triumphant caravan all the way to Caracas to attend a rally. That caravan and rally were immense. And more succesful than whatever show the regime had attempted to put up previous days to make us believe that carnival holiday was joyful, reflecting a happy and content nation.

In short it was a major defeat for chavismo that had to bow to international pressure, and to a popular will favoring Guaido for which denial is now useless. True, several ambassadors were waiting for Guaidó in Maiquetia to shepherd him to Caracas. But had the regime wanted to arrest Guaidó it would have done so at customs, away from public glare, packing Guaidó in a helicopter to wherever.

The fact of the matter is that the regime caved in, at least for now. Contrary to what many said, that the February 23 battle of Cucuta showed the resilience of Maduro, that battle was lost by the regime. Guaidó is the one imposing the agenda. His scene on the highway to Caracas when his caravan stopped in front of public housing to let Guaidó climbing on a car and wave the flag in front of a delirious crowd had a taste of the nails being planted on the regime's coffin.

One of the amazing things for me following this from afar was how the press began slowly to bury Guaidó because he was unable to force the entry of the humanitarian aid. Was he? Nobody serious in Venezuela expected the aid to enter. We all knew that it was a show of strength, that the objective was elsewhere. How could so many papers, from the NYT down be so gullible as to write up for some that Maduro was resilient, that the opposition was on its way to yet another big disappointment and what nonsense.

True, that battle to unseat the regime is far from won, but I am almost willing to find it somewhat suspicious for some US papers to be hinting to a premature Guaidó burial least Trump would be seen as scoring a point. I see this ship sailed.

Now you can read many of them on Twitter tonight talking of a "pendulum" or some other flimsy explanation. Can't wait for the brainy exculpatory articles tomorrow.

Since January 5 the opposition has had a strategy that it has remarkably followed. Guaidó was the one who decided to bite the bullet and take all risks.

For whatever reason they all went along. For whatever reason it has worked out so far. He is collecting all the glory, but he is maybe a minute away from a bullet. All par for the course.

The ill perceived failure of February 23 was not so. Guaidó was doing EXACTLY what he was supposed to do, rounding up support for the next move, taking advantage of the true vileness the regime was willing to display at Cucuta. Contrary to what many thought, expected, hoped for, Guaidó was not looking for a cozy exile spot, he was preparing his next moves, the one today being only the first one.

Monday, February 25, 2019

The tumultuous events of February 23 at the Colombian borders leave a few things clear for the world.

1) the regime is not that strong: it had to use its assault militia, "colectivos", to push back and burn trucks of humanitarian aid. The army apparently is not that reliable, as underlined by scores of military crossing over to Colombia.

2) the regime will do anything to remain in office. Murdering people in the most abject forms is not a problem for them, not even a brief qualm.

3) the choice now is between a strong move or letting Venezuela rot, infested with Colombian guerilla and drug traffickers with a new wave of emigration that this time could reach 5 millions within a couple of years. What would be the choice of the international community now that it is demonstrated that the opposition is a large majority who has tried any possible conventional political means, leaving hundreds of fallen?

Friday, February 22, 2019

Local information is not good, does not understand what has been going on in Venezuela, let's its own bias take over.

Following tweets does not help much. Opposition tweets are transfigured. Chavista tweets are beyond denial.

Even were I to be in Venezuela it would not have been too easy: massive shut down of any media that shows the Cucuta concert , including Nat geo (or that may discuss the massacre of natives at the hand of the Nazional Guard at the Brazilian border).

Thus I have to resort to go to bed with some comfort pill and hope for a nicer wake up tomorrow morning.

One thing is certain though: the only way out for Maduro is a blood bath. Or a yellow uniform.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

In 2007 there was a wave of protests against Chavez due to the closing of RCTV broadcast. It was strong enough that it got Chavez his first major political defeat with the referendum loss of 2007.

The title of a post on May 31 2007 was "The week the Bolivarian Revolution died". It died when Chavez lost the students of Venezuela, and thus the future. Of course, I was writing about the symbolism of that week, full aware in that text that revolutions may see their ideals die but that does not necessarily stop them from dragging on for years. I just did not expect that it would last another 11 years.

What is so intensely satisfying in that picture is that the 4 men started their career in the protest years of 2007 or whereabouts.

Today you can see them holding the main chairs of the National Assembly. They are the power rising, edging the old opposition class, and perhaps bringing down Maduro.

The history books will one day write on the "2007 generation", of these 4 but of several others jailed, exiled and more. They are our future and it is thrilling.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Before I go into this I need to clarify the meaning of some terms least people go all bonkers. What I call left is strictly people that are to the left of European social democrats or US liberals. Myself I politically gravitate between social democrat /liberal and center. Though if the candidate is appealing I have crossed the line more than once. One of my griefs against Reagan is that he turned decisively Liberal US into a dirty word. Liberals were the heirs of a great tradition of free enterprise and social responsibility; now rednecks toss around Liberal in the same sentence as Commie. And that has been so damaging...

The reason of this rant type of entry is that suddenly out of nowhere some people are proposing that the regime and the Venezuelan opposition "dialogue" again. At this point in time offering that as the lone idea to bring peace to Venezuela is to mock's people's intelligence. And worse, it does give Maduro some time to recoup and charge again.

Monday, January 28, 2019

"...The regime will HAVE TO dissolve the NA because this one has the nuclear option. Already since 2015 the NA has warned the world that lending money to Maduro was at their own risks of never recovering it since the NA not having voted on new debt this one is not valid. Now it gets worse, since Maduro is not the recognized president, his signature will have no validity for any act. ANY."

The time has come. But note that it is not the National Assembly that has pushed it, since it does not have ways to enforce it. It is the USA that has pushed it today.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Yesterday the European Union, clearly in trouble in finding a single voice on how to deal with the current situation on Venezuela, emitted through some countries what was termed an "ultimatum" to Maduro. What I saw myself as a great tool form the EU generated a tweet storm of rejection that surprised me. Well, maybe not, the Venezuelan tweetosphere has become quite deleterious. Perhaps that hysterical opposition expects the foreign legion to land tomorrow to free us?
So as a new public service I am going explain a few electoral details to understand the whys of the ultimatum details.

My excuses for a bad typo: for some reason Blogger repeated the first two paragraphs, something that did not happen in the French and Spanish versions. When I proof read it it was a cache copy and thus I did not detect it. Sorry for those who already had read this post entry. But the arguments still remain equally valid.
-------------------------------------
- The election of Maduro in May 2018 has no legality or legitimacy. The election was convened outside the legal system (election in May to be sworn in in January, convened by an illegal constituent assembly, extremely unfavorable conditions for any candidate against Maduro, etc.)

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Between 2003 and, say, 2015 I wrote furiously this blog denouncing the dictatorship that Chavez wanted to, started to, definitely installed in Venezuela. And now, irony, when I should be typing furiously what seems to be the end of the regime I have got to drag myself in front of the computer. I am not the same person.

Our next president?

Yet, since I plan to attend tomorrow's opposition rallies I shall write a short summary of the past 2 weeks to help people cut through the contradictory news; and sometimes misleading news from well intentionned journalists who are, I am afraid, coming a tad late to the party. Last night for example the French TV called Guaidó "extreme right" which goes on to tell you to watch out for what you read. This blog is, of course, perfect.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

Sunday, January 06, 2019

Three weeks ago I was commenting how dire the situation was as the fateful date of January 10 approached. Today things are clearing up and we may get surprises.

First, a brief recall.
1) An illegally elected Maduro on May 20 needs to be sworn in by the National Assembly.
2) the NA powers have been voided by the high court TSJ in an illegal way. No law passed by the NA is valid. Yet the swearing in itself is not a law and thus there is no way to annul the NA on that prerogative. 3) Maduro will not go to the AN for swearing in because not only he cannot do so legally but he cannot appear to be caving in to the NA legitimate demands. You could talk about the Mexico wall deadlock, but you ain't seen no nothing compared to the deadlock here since 2015.
4) The NA cannot compromise with Maduro because his election was outside of the constitutional requirements, both in date and organization. If a fraction of the opposition would break away to make a new majority pact with chavismo representatives (absent since late 2015) it still would be illegal and that portion of the opposition would have no chance ever to get votes in future elections.