Razor Swing Trader

For those interested in Swing Trading stocks, index, Forex markets and buying low and selling high. Swing Trading is a short term trading style for quick profits and taking advantage of stock and Forex market moves.
World Markets, ASX, DOW, DAX, FSTE.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The reason for the weekly is that the markets all overall the world are being hit with global news trends. Of course the big non stop noise is about China.

The issue is that no one really knows the real mess in China apart from the Chinese Government Elite.

Mean while as China comes back to economic realities Commodities are coming off the boil.

But the logic is not as the news makes out a bad thing.

Lets think for a minute???

Cheap oil is good for business, unless you are in the oil business.
Cheap China goods are good for consumers and China companies getting export orders.
China wants to turn back the clock and devalue the yuan for the simple reason, CHEAP sells.

So Australia is caught in the middle of the cross fire of the Chinese balloon deflating.

However the economic clock must turn eg more export orders more demand for resources more orders for Australian commodities. Its only a matter of time.

Lets look at the Weekly Chart.

As you can see the market is a down trend, 4,641 is a highly likely area of support as it was the previous bottom. If it breaks that level then 4,245 is on the cards. The yellow zones are areas of support or resistance, which have done little to stop the falling trend.

I have recently gone back to looking at the weekly charts as they really do show the BIG picture.
In this case the Heads and Shoulder pattern was very obvious.

It will take a lot of energy to 1. break the yellow zone moving up and 2. break the trendline (in blue).

Sunday, October 25, 2015

The Australian Index ( ASX) XJO is in a very strong bullish pattern. Started with the trendline break at 5,126 and then moved in consolidation holding pattern. Fridays strong breakout bar has signal a buy on everyone's charts. Monday should see a strong day up to 5,500 area.

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Had a wide ride last night until this pattern formed on the 5min chart leading to a great breakout to the upside.

Looking at momentum gives clues as to what the underlining is doing. As you can see the WBS indicator is showing divergence as price falls. Following price action alone traders would be going short while accumulation is being carried out in the descent.

This was one of the only decent patterns that formed during the session, It pays big to be patience and wait for the market to come to you, and not chase it.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

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Wednesday, June 18, 2014

For more than two decades, Al Brooks has relied upon this binary strategy, which focuses only on range and trend tradi...
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Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Who is Michael Marcus?
Michael Marcus previously worked as a trader at Commodities Corporation, an investment management firm that was later acquired by Goldman Sachs. Reportedly, Michael Marcus was able to increase his account 2500-fold from $30,000 to $80 million over a span of 20 years.
Did the thought ever enter your mind that maybe trading was not for you?
No. I had always done well at school, so I figured it was just a question of getting the knack of it. My father, who died when I was fifteen, had left $3,000 in life insurance, which I decided to cash in , despite my mother’s objections.
On the secret to successful trading:
I think the secret is cutting down the number of trades you make. The best trades are the ones in which you have all three things going for you: fundamentals, technicals, and market tone. First, the fundamentals should suggest that there is an imbalance of supply and demand, which could result in a major move. Second, the chart must show that the market is moving in the direction that the fundamentals suggest. Third, when news comes out, the market should act in a way that reflects the right psychological tone. For example, a bull market should shrug off bearish news and respond vigorously to bullish news. If you can restrict your account activity to only those types of trades, you have to make money, in any market, under any circumstances.
Did these losses have any of the emotional impact of losses in the market? The reason I ask is that you seem to talk about these investment losses very dispassionately.
Yes, it hurt to realize what a fool I had been, but I have learned not to be as attached to material things. I accepted it as a life lesson. I learned that I don’t have to own a house in every beautiful place in the world; I can stay at a hotel and walk on the beach or climb a trail there.
Do you think being a great trader is an innate skill?
I think to be in the upper echelon of successful traders requires an innate skill, a gift. It’s just like being a great violinist. But to be a competent trader and make money is a skill you can learn.
Having been through the whole trading experience from failure to extreme success, what basic advice could you give a beginning trader or a losing trader?
The first thing I would say is always bet less than 5 percent of your money on any one idea. That way you can be wrong more than twenty times; it will take you a long time to lose your money. I would emphasize that the 5 percent applies to one idea. If you take a long position in two different related grain markets, that is still one idea.The next thing I would advise is to always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point.
When you place an order to get into a position, is it accompanied by an order to get out?
You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weaknesses.
On exiting a position:
That’s right. Another thing is that if a position doesn’t feel right as soon as you put it on, don’t be embarrassed to change your mind and get right out. f you become unsure about a position, and you don’t know what to do, just get out. You can always come back in. When in doubt, get out and get a good night’s sleep. I’ve done that lots of times and the next day everything was clear.
Do you sometimes go back in right after you get out?
Yes, often the next day. While you are in, you can’t think. When you get out, then you can think clearly again.
What other advice would you give the novice trader?
Perhaps the most important rule is to hold on to your winners and cut your losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers. Both are equally important. If you don’t stay with your winners, you are not going to be able to pay for the losers. You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weaknesses. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and bad in your own approach. When you try to incorporate someone else’s style, you often wind up with the worst of both styles. I’ve done that a lot. n the final analysis, you need to have the courage to hold the position and take the risk. If it comes down to “I’m in this trade because Bruce is in it,” then you are not going to have the courage to stick with it. So you might as well not be in it in the first place.
I assume that we are talking about very talented traders, and it still doesn’t make a difference. If it is not your own idea, it messes up your trading?
Right. You need to be aware that the world is very sophisticated and always ask yourself: “How many people are left to act on this particular idea?” You have to consider whether the market has already discounted your idea.
What kinds of misconceptions about the markets get people into trouble?
Well, I think the leading cause of financial disablement is the belief that you can rely on the experts to help you. It might, if you know the right expert. For example, if you happen to be Paul Tudor Jones’ barber, and he is talking about the market, it might not be a bad idea to listen. Typically, however, these so-called “experts” are not traders. Your average broker couldn’t be a trader in a million years. More money is lost listening to brokers than any other way. Trading requires an intense personal involvement. You have to do your own homework, and that is what I advise people to do.

Today News NEW YORK — The federal government has filed charges against a California hedgefund analyst and a former tech executive in its continuing crackdown...
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Sunday, March 2, 2014

The current situation in the Ukraine is simple.
First, the facts. Russia produced around 10.6 million barrels of oil
in 2012 according to BP’s Global Statistical Review. This was second
only to Saudi Arabia who produced around 11.5 million barrels. BP will
release its 2013 statistics in the next few months; we don’t expect to
see too much proportional change. Total global oil production is
currently at around 86 million barrels, this highlights Russia’s
position. Russia is even more prominent in natural gas production; it
produced around 592 billion cubic metres in 2012 which was the largest
single production by a nation. A large proportion of this gas exports
through legacy pipelines, which run through countries like the Ukraine
and end up as a major energy source for most of Western Europe.
At the end of the day, Western Europe needs its energy and Russia
knows this well. This brings us to the second point, politics. Russia
can afford to negotiate its geopolitical interests on its own terms
because it knows that whatever reasonable measures it puts into place,
there is little that Western Europe can do economically. A military
occupation of Crimea and other Russia interests in and around the
Ukraine will be met with nothing other than Western vocal opposition.
Russia knows that it can push its military to certain points with little
consequences. The West will use its media and lobbying to try and paint
Russia as an aggressor but this is not likely to make any difference,
as has been the case in Syria for the past two years.
The third point is economics. If there are military strikes in the
Ukraine, which is not likely, there might be a slight spike in the gold
price. Russia needs global markets to sustain its economy; it cannot
afford to isolate itself. It knows that military operations are a just a
means to prove the point that it is a force to be reckoned with. The
whole issue highlights a bigger theme around energy prices. Western
Europe is held hostage to a dominant and defiant Russia which is still a
completely dominant force in energy markets. This means Western capital
and technology will chase diversification in the coming decade. North
Africa and the Mediterranean are key areas of energy development for
Western Europe, particularly for liquefied natural gas. If the West
cannot get this type of diversity up and running fast enough, the
squeeze on oil prices will be profound.
Peter Esho, Invast.

Monday, November 25, 2013

One Of The Largest Wealth Transfers In History?

In my last article, I discussed how the Fed is determined to keep the
financial system primed with sufficient credit to prevent it from
imploding. However, in this article, I’ll explain why their plan is
doomed, because our GDP growth will not be able to match the credit
expansion they so desperately need. I’ll also show how this will result
in one of the largest wealth transfers in all of history.
So, if you’re interested in knowing how to increase your odds of
being on the right side when it occurs, then please keep reading.
Let’s start with a question. Do you think it would be possible for
someone with a $75,000 salary to successfully carry $860,000 in debt on
their credit cards? No, of course not. That’s completely ridiculous and
not workable in any stretch of the imagination. But that’s exactly where
the U.S. is headed.
Let me explain . . .
As mentioned in my last article, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is at
unprecedented levels. At one point, it was well over 370%, but as of
this writing, it stands at about 350%. The Feds hope that by means of
robust economic growth, that ratio can be reduced. But is that
reasonable? I’ve analyzed the average yearly growth in U.S. GDP going
back to the late 1700s and noted its lowest point was about 1.5%, and
its highest point was about 6%. But on average, the U.S. GDP has been
3.8% over the last 220 years.
Unfortunately, that’s nowhere near enough to cover the 8% rate that
our debt is growing. In fact, with these numbers, our debt-to-GDP ratio
will grow to 1,130% in the next 30 years! As mentioned, that’s the
equivalent of someone with a $75,000 salary trying to carry $860,000 in
debt on their credit cards. The bottom line is this: our GDP growth has
NEVER been high enough to cover our current 8% debt growth.
But that creates a HUGE problem, because our debt-based fiat money
system was designed with the need to grow. And if for any reason, it
stops growing or even reverses, the whole system can literally implode.
In my opinion, that’s why we’re seeing various central banks dropping
any language about the need for future interest rate increases and they
are continuing with loose monetary policies. What I see are central
banks everywhere pumping liquidity and promising to keep interest rates
down. Why? Certainly not because they think it’s a good idea, but
because it’s what they MUST do to keep the financial system from
imploding!
The underlying problem is that real growth is not coming back. The
only increases we’re seeing are in paper-wealth, meaning stocks, bonds,
and currencies. And this can only go on for so long before there is a
huge re-balancing, bringing excesses back in line with reality. When
that happens, the vast majority of people will lose as the most of the
real wealth gets transferred to relatively few.
Those holding paper assets will suddenly find themselves holding
nothing of real value, while those holding real assets will find
themselves with all the wealth. But even worse is that with all of this
easy money sloshing around, prices are being driven up on everyday
necessities. You see, the Fed is working tirelessly to debase the dollar
and boost borrowing, because that’s what our financial system requires
to survive.
But time is almost up.
Living beyond our means is very pleasurable, but it can’t go on
forever. It’s just not a workable long-term plan. So, what do I
recommend? As your making your money trading, make sure you continuously
transfer a significant portion of your profits into real, tangible
assets like gold and silver.
The jig is almost up. The world just cannot provide the level of growth required to support the debt we are accruing.
The time of reckoning is near. Don’t delay. Take action right now.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Trading a Triangle pattern can be a dangerous trade, because unless you can see that price action is in a triangle pattern you are probably in the KILL ZONE.

Yes, like any love triangle someone gets hurt and in this case its your account.

The best way to trade the triangle is for a breakout out of the triangle lines. More advance traders will enter on the retest of the breakout.

Above is the EUR/USD,
as you can see I have drawn a nice triangle pattern with a clear break out that didn't go any where, until it retested the trendline and move backup to the level of the breakout high. Then BOOM
price rockets up to the previous high (or high of the triangle).

The take home points from the price actions is that patterns do work, that retest setups move with strength.

However if you were trading in a smaller timeframe eg 5min, 1min you would be whipped sawed all over the place eg your longs would fail and your shorts would fail. This is the Kill Zone (KZ)
that will burn money and get you annoyed and stressed out.

Look for the KZ and wait for the market to give a good trade setup. :>

Saturday, December 29, 2012

What is the US Fiscal Cliff? How will the US Dollar react?

The US risks seeing an already weak economic
recovery fade away as it has so far been unable to find a solution to a
series of automatic cuts and tax increases, referred to as the “Fiscal
Cliff”, that will take effect as at January 2013.Define:
The term “fiscal cliff” refers to a combination
of both spending cuts and tax increases due by early 2013in the US. The
tax increases are resultant from a number of previously introduced tax
cuts that will reach expiration by the start of 2013, while the spending
cuts are mostly being triggered by the sequester.
The sequester is a budgetary enforcement tool
originally introduced in 1985 which has seen added interest recently
since it was also included for enforcement within the Budget Control Act
of 2011.
In August 2011 US Congress had agreed to raise
the US debt limit but the deal also included provisions for spending cuts
and a Joint Select Committee was asked to come up with another $1.2
trillion in deficit cuts spread over ten years. This committee, however,
failed to reach this aspired target in November2011.
Following the failure of the Committee it is
envisaged that the sequestrations will be triggered as part ofthe
enforcement of the 2011 Act. The sequester is thus an automatic flat
$109 billion yearly cut inspending, to take effect on January 2nd, 2013,
designed to force Congress to achieve a balanced deficitreduction plan.
These automatic cuts are imposed across a number of federal programs
and will havethe effect of tightening fiscal policy at a time when the
economic recovery seems as yet unable to standon its own feet.Why should this bother you as an investor?
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates
that the combined effect of the spending cuts and tax increases plus the
resultant economic feedback could result in a fiscal contraction in the
region of $560billion between 2012 and 2013 and the magnitude and the
timing of such a contraction will most certainly hit US GDP growth
negatively. The US is the largest global economy so imagine
what dampening effect that would have on the rest of the world economy -
you will have come across a saying if the US sneezes the rest of the
world will catch a cold.
Forex investors holding exposures in the US
Dollar will also be affected by currency fluctuations – one will have to
see how events will feed into currency market behavior.
The US faces a choice between:
1) Build a stronger fiscal position and growth in
the long run but jeopardize short term growth and an already doubtful
recovery by allowing the tax increases and spending cuts to come into
effect. The CBO projects that calendar year 2013 growth would be
reduced to 0.5% thereby increasing the possibility of recession.
or
2) Avert short term negative impact by avoiding
the measures forming the main components of the fiscal cliff at the
cost of higher debt and interest payments whilst increasing the risk
ofseeing the US face a crisis similar to what the EZ is facing. In this
scenario CBO estimates projected GDP growth for the calendar year of 2013
to be in the region of 4.4%.
The choice between these alternatives is already
quite bleak but it is worsened by a political inability to find common
ground in an election year (elections are due November this year). Given
the sensitivity of the issues involved i.e; tax increases, spending cuts
etc. we are faced with a Congress that so far was unable to make it
through this bottleneck.How will the US Dollar react?
Whilst overall ,at a first glance, one should
expect such event risk to weigh on US Dollar’s support this should be
somewhat balanced against the safe haven role the USD tends to have.
However the effect on the US Dollar will largely
be a function of what political response the US government will in the
end resort to.
A reactionary approach, as opposed to a proactive
approach, should be expected to impact negatively on the USD; kicking
the can down the road is something that the EZ is accused of and we have
seen the effects on the euro. On the contrary a clear direction for the
deficit cuts required over the ten year period should be positive for the
US Dollar.
With the US having to digest an election, a
seemingly faint economic recovery and the threat of debt and further
downgrades it is likely that US policymakers will remain uninterested in
a strong USD. If we had to focus on the EUR/USD
the lead that the USD has been holding against the euro since
May’11probably opens the door for some correction. So while downside
risks remain for the pair we could most probably be aiming for levels
around 1.30 levels in the coming year.Conclusion
Will the US avert this fiscal cliff? Probably yes
but this will now depend heavily on how policy makerstackle the upcoming
elections, this fiscal conundrum and the resultant consequences on the
market.Investors will be eyeing to what extent policy makers can remove
the uncertainty associated with the fiscall cliff and how swiftly they
can make this happen.