International Workshop on Sensors and Small Satellite Technology for Disaster Management – SSTDM 2016

Dr. Arun Bapat

Biodata

Dr. Arun Bapat Ph.D. was working as Head, Earthquake Engineering Research Division at the Central Water & Power Research Station (CWPRS) Pune till his superannuation in March 1998. Currently he is associated with a number of States in advisory and consultancy capacities such as North Eastern Council, Shillong, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Bihar, Tripura, Delhi, Andaman, Mizoram, etc. In addition, he is also associated with neighboring countries such as Nepal, Indonesia, Australia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, Seychelles, and Mozambique etc for earthquake and Tsunami related problems. During 2005 – 2006 he was Seismic Consultant to Gujarat Government. At present he is associated with a project for developing a computer tsunami model for Indian Coast.

Original Research Achievements

Earthquake Catalogue: He is the Principal Author of the book (Catalogue of Earthquakes in India and Neighborhood since Historical Period till 1979, Bapat, A., R.C. Kulkarni and S.K. Guha (1983) Published by Indian Society of Earthquake Technology, Roorkee (India), pp 211.)

This is the only book, which lists about ten thousand earthquakes in all SAARC countries. This book lists earthquakes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka and parts of Iran, Tajikistan, China, Myanmar, and Vietnam etc. The citation Index for this book is very high.

(2) Tsunami Studies: He is the only and first Indian Scientist who has written a research paper on Indian Tsunami. (See Reference: T S Murty and Bapat Arun (1999). Arun Bapat was the first to focus attention at Tsunami on Indian coast five years before the occurrence of Tsunami on Indian Coast in December 2004.

Development of new subject of Seismo-Sedimentation: He has developed a new subject, “Seismo-Sedimentations”. When a moderate to large size earthquake occurs in the catchment area of river, huge amount of sediments in the form of loose soil and boulders, fractured and crushed rocks are generated. Bapat has studied this phenomenon and has christened this as the process of “Seismo-Sedimentation” and the sediments as “Seismo-Sediments”. He has given a mathematical formula to calculate the amount of Seismo-sediments.

He has developed another subject known as Seismo-electromagnetic effect for studying seismic precursory behavior.

Significant Consultancy in recent years:

He was appointed as Seismological consultant to the Gujarat State Disaster Management Authority (GSDMA). He was associated with development of Seismological Research Institute for Gujarat. Known as Institute of Seismological Research (ISR)

He has written three books for Class VIII, IX and X for Gujarat Government on Disaster management.

He has written a short pamphlet on reliable short term seismic precursors for Assam state Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA). The pamphlet gives information to common man about what he would see about 24, 20, 15, 10, 4 05 hours before the occurrence of any medium to large magnitude earthquake. This has been translated in Assamese language and has been distributed up to village levels

The above pamphlet has been translated in Nepali language for the Sikkim State Disaster Management Authority (SSDMA) is proposed to be released at Gangtok in August 2014.

Significant Achievements and Public Interactions

He has published about 200 research papers in various journals, magazines, conferences; congresses etc. In addition to research papers, he has been active in writing popular articles about earthquakes and related subjects. Till now, he has published about 300 articles in English and about 500 articles in Hindi and Marathi languages in India.

He has been Visiting Scientist at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (1984) and at Adelaide University (1996). He was Head of the Indian Seismological Team to Zambia (1980), which established a seismic net in Zambia. He was invited to deliver talk on Tsunami at a Polytechnic in Seychelles (2005). After the destructive earthquake in Mozambique in March 2004, he has been invited to write educative and informative articles for Mozambique.

After the October 08, October 2005, earthquake of magnitude 7.9 in Kashmir, he was requested by the leading Pakistani English Daily Newspaper “The Dawn” to write articles. He has written ten articles in this newspaper.

4.0 He is life member of Indian Society of Earthquake Technology, Roorkee and Indian Society of Hydraulics, Pune.

5.0 He has established several seismological observatories in various states in India and also in Zambia, Nepal, and Bhutan.

6.0 He has surveyed a number of earthquakes such as Koyna Earthquake (1967), Bihar Earthquake (1988), Uttarkashi earthquake (1991), Latur Earthquake (1993), Bhuj Earthquake (2001), Sumatran Earthquake (Surveyed in Andaman), and Kashmir Earthquake (2005). He has conducted a Tsunami Inundation Survey at Kanyakumari along with world famous Tsunamilogist Dr. Tad Murty from Canada.

7.0 Presently, he is organizing a three to four day training classes for graduate, post-graduate and doctoral level. He has conducted such a course at Jamia Milia Islamia (JMI) University at New Delhi and National Institute of Technology NIT, Srinagar (J&K), NIT Mangalore etc. In coming moths he would be having similar activities at Sikkim, Thituchirapally, Aizwal (Mizoram), and Chandigarh etc.

9.0 He has traveled to several countries in the continents of Africa, America, Asia, Australia and Europe. He has been a visiting professor at Adelaide University in Australia and at The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia and as Researcher at the University of Southern California, USA.

Tittle

Successful use of Wireless Technology to Predict Earthquake.

Abstract

The subject of Seismo-Electromagnetic Effect has been developed to as a tool to observe reliable seismic precursors.

The Seismo-electromagnetic effect is manifested on various electronic communication equipments few hours before earthquake, such as Radio, Wireless Communication sets, landline telephones, Radio, Television and mobile telephones. This precursor is manifested at different times in different equipments. The landline telephone talk is disturbed and there is lot of background noise (khar-khar). This is seen few days before the earthquake. The reception of radio signals is adversely affected. If a programme is broadcast on 1000 kHz then the same would be received in the potential Epicentral area at higher frequencies such as 1100, 1200, … 1400 kHz etc. It needs to be noted that the transmitted frequency does not change. It is the reception of frequency which shows the rise. A Transmitter sends waves in all directions. A receiver receives the transmitted signal through an antenna and the equation for reception of the transmitted signal is given by:

This is explained mathematically by following equation.

f = 1/ 2pÖ(LC) …………………………….. (1)

Where f is frequency received by the receiver

L is inductance

C is capacitor … (it may vary for different types of receivers)

2 and p are constants

Before the occurrence of a medium to large magnitude earthquake, the sub surface temperature at the hypocenter increases considerably. Rise in temperature reduces the magnetism. When magnetic field strength is reduced the value of L (inductance) also decreases. The above equation is valid for coil-magnet type receivers and also for ferrite type receivers. It is only at the reception end that the frequency is apparently enhanced. The term L is in denominator and in square root sign. As even a little change in the value of L (the geomagnetic field) would change the received frequency. Above Equation (1) explains the phenomenon of Seismo-Electro-Magnetic Effect. Enhanced frequency reception was seen for the first time prior to the Tashkent Earthquake of 1966. Subsequently it has been observed at several locations. It is also known that atmospheric cloud lightning; hailstorm may also change the reception of frequency. But this is transient and has very short duration.

Experiment to check Seismo-Electromagnetic Effect and Earthquake

An experiment to check these observations was conducted at Koyna. For this purpose, Wireless Communication System was used. A signal was sent three times a day from Pune to Koyna a distance of about 120 km and the received frequency at Koyna was recorded. Daily three signals were sent and the experiment was conducted for two years. As such available readings are 365 x 2 x 3 = 2190. During this period there were 21 records of small magnitude earthquake (M 4.0 to 5.0). About ten to twelve hours before the occurrence of earthquake a shift of frequency was invariably recorded. The frequency of transmission was 4750 kHz and the shifts were in the range 35 to 95 kHz depending up on the magnitude of earthquake.

An interesting observation was found for the first time India after 26 January 2001 Bhuj earthquake. This 7.8 magnitude earthquake occurred at 0846 (Local Time). During the period 0600 hours to 0630 hours, most of the mobile telephones were non-functioning. It was also checked and confirmed that there were no electrical, electronic or mechanical failures in telephone exchanges. Persons from Pakistan have reported similar observations before the 08 October 2005 Muzaffarabad earthquake in Pakistan also confirmed similar observation. On 13 April 2016 an earthquake of M = 7.4 occurred in the border region of India- Myanmar at 23.133º N and 94.900º E at 19h 25m 17s IST. Within few minutes of earthquake, I received telephones from Aizwal (capital of Mizoram), Dimapur (Nagaland) and Dibrugarh and Jorhat in Assam informing that before the earthquake the mobile telephones were not working.