Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

Not a farce, not a trick. No chance of that as long as Chavez is in control. I say that because his ego is too big to allow even the impression of weakness or illness, much less something that reflects on his physical manhood.

If the initial diagnosis was prostate cancer, which seems likely, at this point all sorts of complications could have come up, including MRSA from surgery, bad reactions to drug treatment or radiation therapy. An iatrogenic source is quite possible, meaning that the treatment he got made the condition worse or, more likely, initiated whatever it is that is now the main problem.

I’m guessing he’s comatose; if he were even able to speak his words could be transcribed and posted online.

No way in hell is Cuba going to take over Venezuela. Given the chance to brainwash two generations of schoolchildren, maybe, but they haven’t had that chance and won’t get it. Despite whatever Marxist rhetoric the Chabistas may parrot, they don’t believe or practice it themselves. Venezuelan society is individualist, not collectivist.

the real fun will be after El Mucho Macho Numb Nuts dies…..who will take over? Not that greasy disco Foreign Minister Maduro…ewww….I suppose it will be up to the Cubans to decide….the Venz people gave up control of their country a long time ago…..

maybe the next leader will cancel all those idiotic weapons sales from Russia

[…] a hurry said another of the sources. “That was 72 hours ago.” El Nuevo Herald (Spanish)The Devil’s Excrement calls it the best kept secret in Caracas, wondering if he has prostate cancer and postulating that […]

Power vacuum is as good a term as English has. Chavez has routinely cut the legs from under anyone who might present a threat to his own preeminence, disagree with him, or make a move without his express consent. He has surrounded himself with toadies and incompetents whose virtues are that they are no threat to him and can be bought cheaply or intimidated easily.

The opposition? Does one of them stand for something on principle or have a vision? If they do you haven’t heard about it because of the reasons listed above: If Chavez had seen them as a potential threat, chances are they would never have been allowed to run for office.

I’m enjoying thinking about Fidel’s position and options, none of which look very good without his pudgy protege.

The rumors on Hugo Chavez have gone ballistic. Is this a death watch? Some news sources say his condition is “critical.” Other say he is already dead. What in the name of Jehova is going-on? Does anyone have a ‘reasoned’ explanation as to what is taking place?

Bob: I dont think what chavez has is necessarily fatal, butas the last seven weeks shows, he has to reduce his visibility and activity, for a Government facing myriads of problems and an election next year, this does not help at all. Up to now, I had believed Chavez would win in 2012, to me his health problem is a game changer.

they use twins with certain models preferred for their payload and range capabilities. They land or drop in Haiti where it goes overland to DR then PR then US (this is one route). All law enforcement, military and government officials along the way are corrupted.

Yeah, I know…every time the US make some big anouncement about drug trafficking in Venezuela the minister of Justice in Venezuela announces the discovery of several tones of cocaine.
I wrote in January (although in German) about that…back then I was predicting the Venezuelan government would discover 42 tones for the end of this year. So far it goes according to “plan”.

Gweh,
How is it possible for 95% of the cocaine flights in Latin America to pass through a passage that is about 200 km broad from Central Venezuela to the Dominican-Puerto Rico area?
I mean: are they using the newest Airbus from Guárico to San Juan or what?

Kepler, the ‘suspicious maritime and air activity’ tracks first appeared around 2004 in a government report and then in Jane’s. I have rarely seen it published elsewhere (Congressional report and Plan Colombia website). The 2007 tracks Mack showed is the first update I have seen.

By the way, Gweh: I will write later about cocaine in Venezuela. By all means the evolution is worrying and the government’s reactions very fishy. But this stance from the US is rather hypocritical. There is more rotten material all around than just Venezuela’s. And if anything they should put their house in order with consumtion, just like they should do that here in Europe as well.
No export without demand.

Gweh,
I seem to recall a couple of very similar maps from the US about drug trafficking for the last years. It seems the last one they showed has changed from the one I remember for the very same time.
I do not doubt there are lots of military involved in drug traficking in Venezuela, but so are there in Mexico and Colombia. More in Venezuela? Very probably, but I doubt it is as portrayed by those guys. If you look at the map, it would seem almost as if 95%> of flights go now through Venezuela and towards Central Caribbean. I believe that as much as I believe the WMD
maps shown at UN.
.

Kepler, US Intel is not behind the MH article… it’s the other way around, the article author(s) contact their sources in USGOV. Regarding the map are you referring to the suspicious activity tracks from the video? That data is true there’s no reason to fabricate AFAIK.

Point taken. Staying away and going silent for so many days is against his personality. Though he may be ill (“por ahora”) no doubt he will turn the situation around to his advantage. In the mean time, the oppostion seems to have taken a vacation (it is summer time, after all, isn’t it?)

It looks like it run out of control now, look at google news… The words of Maduro are taken as “lucha por la vida”… I don’t know what is really happening, but I don’t think they wanted something like that.

I don’t buy that story at all, it may be that now they want to turn it into, but I dont buy it, here is why:

On May 29th. I wrote my first post on Chavez’ illness. I did it because a very good source told me he had something “painful, debilitating, not life threatening” and that the knee was a cover for this. Everything else that has happened since confirms in my mind the truth of the original story, but the new facts come from a different source. Those may or not be precise, but I do not buy the set up story at all.

In fact, I find it curious that if the set up story was true, he would tweet yesterday morning and then go silent again. I think an overzelous flunkie decided to tweet in reaction to the spreading news and then stopped.

We have thought Chavez’s illness over and over. You may have sound sources for this story. However, there’s a possibility it is all a fabrication (Hugo Rafael is capable of it, and more). It would serve at least three purposes.

When he returns to Venezuela, he would do it as a hero (“Chavez has dodged a bullet one more time”) which would increase his popularity. In the mean time the country has descended in a certain degree of chaos (that is, more chaos that the usual level of chaos), as with, for example, the situation with the jails. And third, an opportunity is created to purge disloyal followers (PSUV members, FAN members) and anyone who starts talking too much. All of this with, obviously, with the 2012 electrions as a backdrop.

This is a very real possibility, and it may be THE reality of all that’s going on. Are you very confident your story is real?

Sorry, but that second map is a bloody fabrication, as usual. They really overdid the red colour, though. It is just so completely rubbish!

There is definitely cooperation from Venezuelan officials with drug traffickers but so is there with Colombian and Mexican and many more.
This is ridiculous.
Most cocaine is still produced in Colombia.
Geeez…these movements are so predictable.

l can believe Chávez is this or that, but I definitely would not pay too much attention to that article.
It really has the typical tone of something being fed by the US intelligence when it knows nothing more than your cleaning lady or personal doctor do…or just a journalist’s prolific imagination.

OK, but they do know the other stuff and they know “el estado de salud del mandatario venezolano…se encuentra en un estado crítico; no grave, pero sí crítico, complicado”

And then the top: one of the sources “cuya identidad no puede ser revelada debido a la sensible ubicación en la que se encuentra.” I suppose that is another source, right? Strange mix.

Geez…this reminds me of the very sloppy statement by UK minister Gates about Gaddafi flying to Venezuela, he could not confirm or something but he knew from good sources…the very moment he said that I knew he knew nothing more than a mango tree I know in Venezuela and he just thought, in a very stupid manner customary to those people, that such a statement alone would precipitate things and he was completely oblivious to the fact that any refutal of such a statement would actually strengthen Gaddafi, as in fact, happened (well, here it is not the caseo of strengthening or weakening but just veracity). Probably hadn’t he said that more people from Gaddaffi would have shifted sides even if Gaddafi had reappeared.

I mean: these are the guys who some months earlier lost dozens and dozens of memory sticks with sensitive data, who forgot also some stuff of theirs in a train.

These guys can definitely hack and screen emails (mine, yours, anyone’s) with relative ease. They a lot of time know much less than you or even me or even “anyone else” from the region.

I’m feeling prescient tonight. Chavez will be in Margarita and this will have been much ado about nothing. I’d bet Chavez is rolling on the floor in laughter at the attention and speculation going on this week. Dear Venezuela- not even God will get you out of this mess.

June 24, 2011 at 5:20 pm
“Chavez is in deep doo doo, and uncle Fidel can’t get him out of it. There is no way with a presidential election coming-up, that Chavez would miss-out on the 200th year celebration of Venezuelan’s fight for independence, even if they had to stick a broom stick up him for support.”

Exactly correct. ….July 5th.
That’s the date to watch. Is he going to Margarita Island, …or not, with or without a broom handle…. The Defense Minister says he’s coming. He’s telling El Universal that he’s preparing for it on a daily basis. July 5th. Beware of other people watching in the shadows with that “lean and hungry” look. July 5th. Beware the Ides of March,….no, wrong month. July …..named after Julius Ceaser. Cassius and Brutus waiting in the wings. Et tu, Raphael? July 5th, …a date in history.

Wally Makled was major piece in US toolkit and mere months pass before unforseen contingencies make you wish he was around. Today’s congressional hearing was a sorry event as is the whole Obama administration’s policy towards Venezuela. Peor q Bush

The hearing was not the venue to disclose or announce anything. Mack indicated more info available in classified setting. There seems to be a disinformation campaign going on as evidenced by exchange between Rep. Rivera and Kevin Whitaker. Dept. of State will not move against Venezuela for they are 1) clueless and 2) giving deference to Santos “plan” (whatever this is).

Chavez is in deep doo doo, and uncle Fidel can’t get him out of it. There is no way with a presidential election coming-up, that Chavez would miss-out on the 200th year celebration of Venezuelan’s fight for independence, even if they had to stick a broom stick up him for support.

The real question is why is Fidel stalling about Chavez’s health? One can only imagine that he wants time to gain support for his man, Elías Jaua, when you have one member of a Triumvirate die, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triumvir or lose power you end up with civil war, Jesse Chacón and Diosdado Cabello will have to fight it out for power, directly or with a straw men.

The big fear for Castro, is to gain support from voters they throw Cuba, and his ALBA gang, (long considered even by Chavez diehards, as parasites) under the buss. The fact that all the Chavez top party hacks are so quiet, speaks volumes.

It would be interesting to have an educated guess of what actions of the red team would confirm this theory… for instance I just read that Maduro said that Chavez is in control… It reminds me of the “we will never devaluate the Peso” or “the Peso is strong” as I heard in Mexico many times in the 80’s…. to be followed by a mayor devaluation a few weeks later…

HalfEmpty,
What exactly you suggest the opposition should do about Chavez absence? I think that the best thing for the opposition is to be quiet and let the rojos make a mess of themselves trying to explain what happen to Chavez.

I think they have to concentrate in the replacement of the Contralor and they should not let the rojos step on the Constitution with this issue.

Venezuela has stumbled along through a dozen years of a completely incompetent and even actively destructive leader and is now getting along with no leader. Seems like Venezuela is pretty flexible and adaptive.

I’ll give it through the weekend. If no real word on or from Hugito by then, he’s history.

In the meantime, true Venezuelan patriots (and matriots) might want to keep an eye on who is trying to rapidly exit the country with what.

Oh! I dont want him to go, I certainly hope “que no se le pare mas” and that he is debilitated, looks bad and does a terrible, long and suffering campaign before his loss in 2012 as people reject the “new and not improved” Chavez

I agree with Mike: PCA is rarely so swift. Remember that François Mitterrand was already suffering PCA when he became president of France (age 65), governed for 14 years and still had a few months to spare. Moreover, it’s difficult to believe that such a valuable asset for the Castros would have been left without monitoring until PCA developed into metastases. Today early detection is easy by monitoring PSA, free-to-total PSA ratio and PSA doubling velocity.

Chavez’ health this year has not been great, even before the “knee” or whatever problems, he cancelled 8 Alo Presidentes because he was not feeling well or to give space to promote xxx in the first four months of the year. That is 50%!

Fidel’s father was just a gallego. There are many questions about his mother, whoever and whatever she was, including her possible origins in the Canary Islands. His fellow countryman Franco lasted quite a few years.

yes, I recall having read that, too, that Fidel’s family name has gallego origins. As for Kepler’s request for actuarial measures by region, I must say that I agree with it. Just because the life expectancy on a Japanese island is considered higher than average, means little in the face of individual experience, moreover where there occurs a nutritional variation with the norm. And let’s face it: Chávez’ nutrition (likely, too, lifestyle) has not appeared optimal or steady, over the last 12 years. My speculation is based on the visual, thanks to Ch’s repeated appearance in the media, over that period of time.

Thanks for that excellent medical clarification. I was just having some fun with it. But I agree, psychologically, Hugo’s “why me” question must be devastating. Let’s not forget that this is a very simple man with a very simple mind whose climb-up the government ladder broke all the laws of the Peter Principle. Those whom the Gods wish to destroy, ……

This means Smartmatic is out of the election business. They have run their course and doubtful those old and new machines will ever see another presidential election in Venezuela. They may run Phillipines one more time as they dump their Phillipines machines at a price that cannot be refused.

In times like these there is no way of really ascertaining whether the news are true or whether it has been seeded, by any side of the spectrum, in order to make a point now… or make a point later. I guess we will just have to wait and see. But indeed it is the problem and tension that results from the government not being totally transparent and forthright about what is happening.

If this is true this is worst case for Chavez and Chavismo that shows that he is merely mortal! They need him be assasinated to keep up the anti imperialism rubbish. I cannot imagine if he does die that they (PSUV/chavistas) will ever admit that it was to cancer or whatever. Look for the poison/conspiracy theories.

Chavez created a Ministry of Conspiracies to keep track of all supposed attempts on his life. The Ministry ran out of space the first week and has a three back log. Surely one of these conspiracies with fit with PC.

For those of you familiar with Monty Python’s ‘History of the World,’…
In order to protect the honor of the Vestal Virgins of Rome all eunuchs attending to the women were required to stand at attention whilst a scantily clad belly dancer performed in front of them. Any reaction, ahem, would quickly determine the imposter or imposters. Now, on July 5th, if we could find a buxom, bikini- wearing Venezuelan Godess to perform in front of all those South American dignitaries and,….and if……….oh never mind.

While your story is certainly funny, it is however not true that men with Pca will automatically have ED and incontinence problems. It’s a complex subject, but just as a quicky (no pun intended), there are nerve sparing surgery techniques that leave approx. 90% of men “functioning” rather well afterwards. And if they don’t, there are many solutions nowadays that let them carry on with their “manhood”.

However, knowing Chavez’s macho personality, he would not be satisfied (no pun intended) with alternative solutions, should he need them. I’d predict that he would be further enraged by the “why me” question.

Also, for all that believe or hope that he will die of Pca say in 2011, it won’t happen. Maybe of something else, but not of Pca (if in fact he has it).

Did Hugo Chavez pass his governing powers to Raul Castro and Fidel Castro? Was this covered in the Enabling Laws passed in 2010? Is this the final push for the Castros to take over Venezuela? You never know.

I’ve have never believed that Chavez actually physically typed anything in tweeter so no surprise it’s from a Blackberry. He has his minions you know. At the same time, it should be easy to validate if Blackberry works from Cuba. Ask Babalublog

John, I don’t know if this PC thing is true or not but I do know that in terms of longevity, the genetic odds are against Chávez. Fidel is catalán, so he has longevity genes, which the typical venezuelan from the plains do not necessarily have.

Of course. But if you’re going to go through all that trouble to have it set up in a hospital room, you might as well bring in a laptop for the same amount of effort, which would then beg the question of why didn’t he just video chat via Sype or just pick up the phone.

I know this guy who died a year ago. His girlfriend uses his FB account to keep his memory “alive”. Even chats using his screen name. Very creepy

I’m having nightmares thinking that if all this is true, and he had his prostate removed and maybe other things, and he survives….we’ll have to keep listening to his 4 hour long speeches now with a very high pitch voice!!!!! OH NO!!

PC usually takes a very very long time to develop and kill you. Most of the time the patients will die of something else. This is not what the medical industry wants you to hear or what most readers of this blog want to hear, but it is the fact…

Statistically, 1 in 6 men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer but only 3 % die from it. The believe is that actually an even much higher rate of men will develop prostate cancer (at advanced age), but many never know about having it, or won’t be treated (other than watchfull waiting), because there is no benefit in terms of life expectancy.

Just read that Venezuela is now governed by Twitter from Cuba. Of course nobody knows who actually writes the Twits. There is no doubt in my mind that HC is incapacitated and unable to speak for unknown reasons, but certainly not directly related to Pca.

Interesting, LD, your comment re operating even if metastasis is present. Here (US), they will not operate if lymph nodes are positive, much less if there are mestastases. Also, here, laproscopic / robotic prostatectomies are a 2 day affair: surgery on day 1, stay overnight and leave around noon next day, so if they have this technology in Cuba, it could also have been done in secret. Traditional “open” surgery has a recovery time of 4 – 6 weeks and high risk of large blood loss, infection and others.

There are so many variants in terms of procedures, progression and stage as well as timeline just for Pca and of course as you said, he may reappear Alfred E. Newman style: “what, me worry?” and unleash an extra dose of rage on the people of Venezuela. But maybe, just maybe there is a group of military leaders with a conscience who close the door on him for violating the constitution. Just dreaming….

I have to correct myself, it was too early in the morning 😉 , no, if there are metastases the prostatectomy is no more viable. Some (bone-) metastases could be operated to stabilise the bones, but it has no curative effect anymore. Then it is all to the hormonal- and radiotherapy, later chemotherapy but the game is over then.
(As my father has PC -but he is in the late 80s- I read a lot, but I’m not an expert)

Well the post-operation infection after prostate cancer can be very bad. My uncle 76 year-old, was operated two years ago, he is diabetic so he got a fungus infection that keep him in the hospital for 12 days after the operation with very high fiber. Also the doctors needed several days to culture the fungus to administrate the correct antibiotic. If the infection manifested during the trip, probably they needed several days to know what infection. My uncle recovery was slow and he was depressed for a while. He was chemically castrated, but his is a more mellow individual now… So if Chavez survive this, he may have a change in personality after the testosterone level is decreased. However, Chavez is very young for PC and the younger you are the worse are the consequences.

Not that the story per se is not believable, but once Pca is diagnosed (Typically DRE & biopsy), the NEXT step is a PET / CAT scan to determine if it has spread, typically to bones in the case of Pca.

If it has, a radical prostatectomy – conventional, laproscopic or robotic (Davinci) – is of NO benefit, since the cancer has spread and is stage 4 (terminal). The treatments in this case are radiation and hormonal (to block testosterone to control / stop further spreading – the marker being PSA). Many different forms of the latter 2 exist (I doubt in Cuba however) and sururvival can still be years, as Pca typically is very slow growing (but not always).

However, any of these scenarios does not explain his silence, unless he is so depressed that he can’t bring himself to face his destiny, or something else went wrong somewhere (stroke?), or they have him sedated for some reason. And of course we don’t know if in fact he has Pca.

Btw, none of these treatments causes hair loss. Quimotherapy, which may cause hair loss, is only used if everything else fails to treat Pca, because it is not clear if it provides even minimal benefits.

I’m with you Mike, it is not a perfect explanation. If HCh had wanted, he needs only to take a plane and go to Cuba for the scan. It could go unnoticed if he wants.
I can only think of a late discovery of PC, leading to initial treatment (hormonal suppresion and subcapsular orchiectomy) in Venezuela and a possible immune-therapy in Cuba (they have some interesting treatments -don’t subestimate them-).
But It remains highly speculative.

But (thinking and remembering), *if* he had a PC and it was discovered late, they would do a prostatectomy anyway if the metastasis are not ubiquituos (at least here in Germany) and try the hormonal-(beginning bevor the operation) and radiotherapy. With some luck it could work. The immuno-therapy of the cubans maybe another one, but apparently is experimental yet.
The swelled face makes me think of the hormonal treatment, but it could have other causes.
Maybe it is right, maybe not and he comes laughing in 10 days, we would see…

While this scenario does seem to fit the facts, it is still just rumors and we should be cautious about neglecting other interpretations. However, if true, the next weeks and months could get very… interesting.

Miguel Octavio, thanks for the detailed – and immediate- reply. Wherever you are these days, you still have a finger on the pulse of Caracas.

( On the thread, “A Tmeline of Chavez’ Mysterious Illness,” where Miguel Octavio had posted some comments about the prostate cancer, I had posted: the following:After reading the above thread on the WSJ article on “prostrate cancer,” which said such rumors were floating around Cuba and Caracas, I was going to ask Miguel Octavio if he had heard of any such rumors/ gossip circulating. No need to ask him after reading the above .[comments from Miguel Octavio on that thread] )

I can understand why there has been silence on this. While there are Chavistas throughout the institutions, and Chavez has modified or created institutions to maintain his power, his power is not institutional but personal. Chavez IS the “revolution/robolucion.” His partners in crime have the collective charisma of a shipping container of rotted PUDREVAL food. Their leadership ability consists in leading a suitcase of dollar bills to an intended destination.