Tuesday, 30 April 2013

Over the last couple of days I've seen the same video repeatedly shared on Facebook and Twitter with claims that it shows a chemical weapon used on Al Bab

There's obviously a massive amount of interest in chemical weapon use in Syria at the moment, so it's worth taking a look at this video.

What we actually have in this video is a ODAB-500PM fuel-air bomb, which have been used in the conflict for several months. I've collected a number of videos showing the remains of these bombs, which have generally been burnt out, so this is a pretty unique look inside an ODAB that hasn't caught fire. You'll note in the video the men talk about liquid spilling out of it, and that it smells like benzene, which makes sense as this bomb sprays a cloud of fuel around it just before igniting.

Monday, 29 April 2013

Today there's been fresh reports of an alleged chemical attack on the town of Saraqeb, Idlib, with photographs and videos from the scene posted online

One thing that stood out was this image, of one of devices supposedly used to deliver the chemical

What stands out about this is it appears to be a very strong match to the remnants of devices that were supposedly used in an earlier attack in Sheikh Maghsoud, Aleppo, for example

Note the large ridge, and these two features

Also note the top of the item in the Saraqeb images, and this image

There's also been a video posted online showing what is supposedly the attack occurring, and this does not appear to match to any form of attack I've seen in Syria before, and looks very much like something falling through the sky producing smoke/gas (h/t James Miller of EA Worldview)

This leads me to believe the same devices and chemical were used in both attacks, but as yet it's unclear what the chemical and device is.

Update April 29th 2013 Something else that links the two attacks is the description of the earlier attack, via Mohammed Aly Sergie

Some survivors said the canisters were dropped from a helicopter, but others didn't hear rotors. Doctors don't know what the chemicals were

Update April 29th 2013 Another video has been uploaded showing the victims, and a much clearer shot of the device used

This extra detail on this video seems to prove that the devices used in both attacks were identical.

Update April 30th 2013 Thanks to Anita McNaught of Al Jazeera English for sending me this new video show the canister much more clearly

Unlike the previous video, this new video contains much clearer shots of the missiles, and how they are being used. One thing that stands out for me is the item at the bottom of this frame

In the previous video it was clear the seeker at the end of the missile had been removed, which led me to question how the missile was being detonated when it reached it's target. What I believe we have here is the answer to that question, a DIY impact fuze, which can be seen on the rocket just before the launch

It's still questionable how useful these rockets are, as they don't have a particularly large payload, and are almost certainly going to be inaccurate when used this way. However, I don't imagine they would be much less powerful or accurate than the DIY rockets the opposition are using (if not more), so they aren't exactly out of place in the opposition arsenal, and this is another example of them using what is at hand to fight the conflict, even if it requires a bit of modification.

Friday, 26 April 2013

This rather remarkable video filmed near Qatinah, Homs, sent to me by Mads Dahl, shows a unique example of an air-to-air missile being used as a surface-to-surface missile

In the video we see a K-13 variant missile, a Soviet copy of the US Sidewinder missile, being prepared for ground launch, without the seeker and guidance sections at the end of the missile. Here's an example of one of the variants

The location of the launch is interesting, as it appears to be near Dabaa air-base, which recently was at least partly overrun, with large amounts of equipment captured, including the same type of missile shown in the video. It would seem that the opposition fighters in that area have decided to make the most of these missiles, which are designed for air-to-air combat, by building a DIY launcher to fire them. As you can imagine, they've pretty no way to aim these, or is it certain the warheads will detonate correctly, so whether this is a one off experiment or something they'll use more regularly is unclear at the moment.

Thursday, 25 April 2013

On several occasions in the past there's been a number of videos claiming to show launches of various large missiles and rockets by the Syrian army. A new video has now been posted, "leaked" from the 155th Brigade, based a few kilometers northeast of Damascus, which shows multiple launches or large rockets and missiles

A couple of things point to this being Syria, and not somewhere else. First of all the Syrian flag can be seen briefly at two points in the video

At this point in the video the soldiers chant something that roughly translates to "with soul, with blood, we sacrifice ourselves to you Bashar", a slogan originating from well before the start of the conflict. This then begs the question of whether or not the video was filmed before the conflict, especially as the clothes and whether seems to put this during a warmer period of the year, not the winter months. The single clue seems to be at 3:07, when soldiers in the background use the word "thawra", which means revolution. Four people have told me this word was used, with two people telling me the soldiers say how shouting Allahu Akbar during the launch made them sounds like rebels. This is the only evidence I've come across to date it during the conflict, so if anyone else spots anything in the video that dates it that would be a great help.

Update April 25th - Here's the best translation so far of what's said via @freeCritic2000
Soldier 1 - Allahu Akbar
Soldier 2 - Don't bother with Allahu Akbar otherwise I feel like I'm in the revolution. Like in Horan.
Soldier 1 - Shut up, the other day I nearly lost my voice due to the times I shouted Allahu Akbar.

Next let's take a look at the weapons shown in the video. At the beginning of the video we see the launch of two missiles, both from a vertical position, and with a distinct orange flame at the start of the launch

Although the missiles cannot be seen clearly, the vertical position and the orange flame are both indications that these are either Scud missiles launches, or launches of missiles based off Scud missiles, such as the North Korean Rodong-1 missile. Both Soviet era Scud missiles, and North Korean Rodong-1 missiles are reported to be in service with the Syrian military.

These may be locally produced versions of Iranian rocket systems, such as the Fateh-110, or Zelzal-2 or 3, but there isn't enough reference material publicly available to confirm this, so if anyone has a good quality image of the Syrian versions of those systems, let me know.

Update April 25th 2013 I believe this footage actually might have been filmed at a test conducted in July 2012 by the Syrian military, and covered on Syrian State TV

The footage in the above video seems to match some of what's shown in the "leaked" video, and the conversation of the two soldiers about the rebels and Horan would make sense in this context. Another reader has told me that at 6:40 they talk about "projects", which in the Syrian military refers to war-games, so it seems extremely likely this is the July 2012 test.

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Thanks for all the donations so far, after one week nearly half the total amount has been donated, and with the donations I've collected so far that secures the future of the blog for at least the next 4 months.

Last month I wrote about a new type of cluster bomblet filmed in Syria, a Soviet ShOAB-0.5, and I suggested the likely delivery system was the RBK-500 series cluster bomb, a much larger cluster bomb than had been previously used in the conflict. This new video from Dar el-Kebir, Homs, seems to confirm that RBK-500 cluster bombs loaded with ShOAB-0.5 bomblets are now being used in the conflict

There's two sets of markings that provide additional information. Here's the manufacturing details, which tells us this was made in 1983

And next details of the container type, RBK-500, and bomblet type, ShOAB-0.5

So this is evidence of yet another escalation in the types of munitions used in the conflict, although considering how much evidence cluster bombs leave behind after their use it seems this particular type of cluster bomb has been used very rarely, especially when you consider there's now over 500 videos of cluster bomb use in Syria.

This is part of what I like to call the "Aleppoisation" of Southern Syria. What I mean by this is that I believe what we are seeing in the Daraa region and it's environs mirrors what has occurred in the Aleppo region over the past year. Simply put, we saw the opposition in the north acquiring increasingly powerful weapons, which allowed them to move from attacking checkpoints to increasingly larger military bases, allowing them access to more anti-aircraft weapons, which provided the protection to deploy armoured vehicles and artillery, which were then used to attack even larger bases.

Early fighting in the Daraa region resulted in the capture of smaller bases, including an air-base near El Sahoah, north-east of Daraa city, where a number of armoured vehicles and artillery pieces were captured, a couple of examples of which are shown below

Other bases with armoured vehicles and other useful equipment were captured, and on March 23rd the capture of the 38th Division Air Defense Base, just east of Daraa city and located on the major Damascus-Amman highway, resulted in a large amount of equipment being captured, including SA-7 MANPADS, much needed air defence equipment for the opposition in that region

Syrian MP Walid al-Zoubi conceded the significance of this loss to the regime in a speech to the Syrian Parliament in which he said “the most important military position” in the region fell because the regime lost control of the highway from Khirbet Ghazaleh to the border

A few days later the capture of Dael, located on a strategic highway from Damascus to Daraa, reflected the strategy used in the north of the country of capturing key routes, isolating government forces in towns and bases across the region, before attacking them directly, all the while using their increasing arsenal to take on larger and more difficult targets.

Since then fighting has focused on a number of areas, including the opposition held town of Khirbet Ghazaleh, located east of Dael, and on the same major highway as the 38th Division Air Defense Base. Again, this reflects the strategy used in the north, and in the last few days it appears that groups based in that town have begun using armoured vehicles for the first time in the Daraa region. Here's a couple of examples

It seems increasingly there's evidence of the same pattern of events unfolding in the south of the country as we've seen in the north, and it's very likely there will be more attacks on bases in the region, more attempts to capture towns on major routes, and an increasingly well-armed opposition. What makes this significant is Daraa is pretty much on Damascus' doorstep, so the reaction of government forces to these advances will no doubt have a greater sense of urgency to them. It is interesting to note the arrival of more Croatian weapons in the south of the country in recent weeks, this time RAK 12 multiple rocket launchers, a significant step up in the type of weapons provided to the opposition, and with reports of thousands of tonnes of weapons transferred from Croatia to Jordan I have to wonder if the Syrian government can expect more surprises from the opposition in Daraa in the coming months.

Wednesday, 17 April 2013

As regular readers of the blog are probably aware, I've been writing a lot about weapons from the former-Yugoslavia appearing in Syria, but it appears they've now been joined by weapons originating from Czechoslovakia. The following image was sent to me by a reliable source, and shows a RPG-75, a one-shot disposable anti-tank weapon, with opposition members in Aleppo

The group who had these, Ghorabaa Sham, had reportedly purchased 8 of them from another opposition group, and the weapons appeared to be in excellent condition. So far it's unclear where these weapons came from, as they don't appear to be used in the region, although it should be noted that information on these weapons is pretty thin on the ground. It's certainly something worth keeping an eye out for in the coming months.

Tuesday, 16 April 2013

A number of you may already know that a couple of weeks ago I was offered a position as an open source analyst which would have required me to give up work Syria, and other related topics, effectively ending the Brown Moses Blog. I was on the verge of accepting the job, and announced my decision on Twitter.

The response to that announcement took me by surprise, with many people offering to support the blog in whatever way they could, so I took the decision to turn down the job offer and instead start a fundraising campaign with the hope of raising enough money to allow me to work on the blog as a full-time job for the next six months, instead of part-time like I do at the moment,.

I've now set up a Indiegogo campaign in the hope of raising £6000, which will be enough to keep me blogging full-time for the next six months. That'll mean more blog posts, more time for me to analyse the vast number of videos coming out of Syria, and hopefully more time to explore other areas. My other aim is to start releasing regular videos looking at different aspects of the conflict, which will hopefully make the most of the many Youtube videos I've collected over the past year.

If the Indiegogo campaign goes well I'm also hoping my first stretch goal will be to start Brown Moses Arabic, a separate blog with all the posts I make on Syria translated into Arabic, as well as a separate Twitter account. It's always seemed to me slightly perverse that I'm writing about a conflict that's of such great interest to the Arab world, yet all my work is in English, so I'm hoping if I reach my first stretch goal I'll be able to go ahead with it.

If you want to read more about me and my blog there's been a number of articles published on that subject in recent weeks, some of which are listed below

Monday, 15 April 2013

This following video, posted online yesterday, shows what are claimed to be attacks on Hezbollah positions in Syria and Lebanon by Syrian opposition members

This would obviously be quite significant if true, as it would mean members of the Syrian opposition are now attacking positions inside Lebanon. There's a certain amount of additional information that can be gleaned from this video. At the start we see a collection of 107mm rockets, generally used by rocket launchers such as the Type-63

After that, we see one of the 107mm rockets loaded into a DIY launching platform of questionable accuracy

Next we see a 12 barrel DIY rocket launcher mounted on the back of a truck

What's not stated in the video is the name of the group involved in the attack, but fortunately the DIY multiple rocket launcher appears to be a unique design, and the same one appears in other videos filmed in the same region

You'll also note that the person operating the launcher in all four videos is the same guy, with a very distinctive arm-less jacket. The above videos belong to the Omar al-Farouq brigade, although I'm unclear if they are related to the Farouq Brigades.

Sunday, 14 April 2013

Over the past few months a new family of bombs have been deployed in Syria, with the following videos giving clear examples of them at work

At the same time a number of videos have been appearing showing the remains of parachutes in areas these bombs have been used, for example

The remains of the bombs used have been harder to track down, with this being the one example I've been able to find

This has complicated finding the specific type of bomb used, but I'm fairly certain the bombs used belong to a family of parachute retarded FAB-500 high explosive bombs, which include the FAB-500 SH, FAB-500 SHN, and FAB-500 SHL, examples of which are shown below

FAB-500 SH

FAB-500 SHN

FAB-500 SHL

Based off the configuration of the tail-fin in the video showing the remains of one of these bombs, it seems the most likely match in that instance is the FAB-500 SHL, although it's impossible to know if other examples have been used. It's also worth keeping in mind smaller and larger versions of these bombs also exist.

What's very interesting is what these bombs are used for. Historically, as air defence systems have become increasingly sophisticated, it became widely accepted that to counter this bombs should be delivered at extremely low altitudes. Standard bombs delivered in this way risked damaging the plane dropping them, so parachutes were added to slow the descent of the bomb. So it would appear the use of these bombs is a reaction to the opposition's improving air-defences, especially as it's clear that in recent months MANPADS are playing an increasingly important role in the opposition air-defences.

Saturday, 13 April 2013

The following video has been posted by activists in the city of Raqqa, showing the remains of a badly damaged missile (thanks to Mads Dahl)

Fortunately there's enough of the missile to come up with an ID, most of which comes from the tail end. First take a look at the following features on the video and two reference images of a Scud-B missile engine

On the second item note the protruding feature on the outer edge

Also compare the details I've highlighted on the tail fin in the video with the two reference images

It's also worth noting the ridge filmed on one side of the missile, which is also a feature of Scud-B missiles

While this is strong evidence that the remains belong to a Scud-B missile it's harder to be sure if it's actually been fired, especially as there's been evidence of an apparently abandoned Scud-B missile in the Deir Ez Zor region. There appears to be very little evidence of impact, although there only appears to be part of the missile in the area, so the initial impact may have occurred elsewhere, and judging by the dark marks on the ground it's likely the wreckage was burning at some point.

The problem is, I cannot pin down the exact type of warhead this is, or the system it's used on. Some people have suggested it might be from a 9K79 Tochka/OTR-21 tactical ballistic missile, which can use a cargo warhead, but I've been unable to find solid evidence to support that. I'm certain this is from a large surface-to-surface missile or rocket, and almost 100% sure it's a cargo warhead, but frustratingly I've been unable to find a perfect match. If anyone has a good idea of what this is (or even better, reference images), please feel free to comment below or send me an email.

Thursday, 11 April 2013

Along with DIY rockets and grenades, one of the most widely produced weapons in Syria are DIY mortars. At this stage in the conflict DIY mortars and their ammunition are being produced on a very large scale, with this following video giving a good example of a large factory producing both the weapons and ammo

Now one group, the Shahid Ahmed Dirani Artillery Battalion in East Ghouta near Damascus, has taken things further by attaching six DIY mortars to the rear of a truck, creating a mobile mortar battery

The following video shows the mortars being loaded and fired, and we can clearly see the six mortar tubes have been mounted on a rotating platform.

It seems that from the way the rounds are placed in the tubes they are possibly electronically fired, something that doesn't seem 100% reliable as only 5 of the 6 loaded rounds launch. What makes this useful for the opposition is that it allows them to fire a volley of rounds, with the mortar tubes adjusted to hit the same position, then drive away before the position is attacked.

Tuesday, 9 April 2013

Last night I posted about this video claiming to show the assassination of Dr. Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Bouti

Since then, a couple of people have highlighted claims that the video was faked, the first claim being based of this image:

This attempts to suggest that the video is fake because the chair cannot be seen on the assassination video. If we look at this earlier video of Al-Bhouti sat in the same position we can see it matches what's shown in the assassination video

Now let's take a look at the assassination video before and after the explosion, in particular the area circled in red

Here we can see that what would have been covering the chair before the explosion appears to be missing in the second photograph. Rather than evidence of the video being fake the original claim actually provides more evidence than points to the video being genuine.

Another claim, based off the original picture of alleged fakery and the following photograph, is there's two mic stands, while only one is visible in the video

These are photographs that were published on the SANA website, which also provides other photographs that help clear this up. Here we have a side view of the mic stand, which clearly shows the mic taped on top of the stand with white tape, which from certain angles gives the appearance of their being two microphones

So again, this seems to be more confirmation that the video of genuine. To me, it seems very hard to escape the fact that this video is the real deal, so the question remains, what does this actually show us about the attack?

Monday, 8 April 2013

A very unusual video has been posted online today that claims to show the assassination Dr. Mohammad Said Ramadan al-Bouti, who was reportedly killed in a suicide attack in Damascus on March 22nd (graphic)

There's obviously some questions of authenticity when it comes to videos like this, so let's take a look at two still images, one from the video, and one from state media

Although the quality of the video is poor, and the smoke from the apparent explosion obscures finer details, a few things do stand out. The white objects on the right of the table appears to match, as does the damage to the mosaic. The furniture and stripes on the wall appear to match as well, so either this is an extremely elaborate fake, or a genuine video.

The question is then, what does this show? Some people have queried the actions of the first man who approaches him, suggesting he could be stabbing Al-Bouti, while others think he's trying to pull Al-Bouti out of the way. It's something that will certainly be looked at very closely in the coming days, and is sure to generate a lot of discussion.