Abstract

Farming in the semi-arid tropics, where climatic conditions
are marginal and highly variable, is a risky
enterprise. The main source of this risk is the variability
in rainfall that occurs at many different timescales,
ranging from seasons to years to decades and beyond.
Farmers operating under these conditions make decisions
based on their perceptions and experiences gained from
several years of keen observation and practice in the field.
However, perceptions are influenced by many factors, both
real and subjective. For agriculture, factors like farm productivity,
crop, market and local preferences, capacity to invest,
willingness to take risks and soil quality play an important
role. While the role and significance of some of these
factors on productivity and profitability can be perceived
more easily due to their relative predictability, extreme variability
in climate and the random nature of that variability
makes it difficult for farmers to accurately perceive trends
in climate. In the absence of detailed measurements, perceptions
can be biased and unreliable. Climate information can
play an important role in helping farmers better understand
this variability and its associated risks, and enhancing their
decision-making for effective risk management.