The state of US-North Korea diplomatic relations before the exercise period (defined as 4-8 weeks prior) is actually a better indicator of whether North Korea will carry out provocations during or after the exercises. In the study, if US-DPRK bilateral relations were coded positively prior to the exercises, the North's response remains restrained both during and after the exercises. If pre-exercise relations were coded negatively, then there is a higher likelihood of North Korean belligerence during and after the exercises.

In other words, the military drills are inconsequential, and the larger political context and climate doesn't bend too much to the influence of flashy military drills.

In light of this study, and countless examples from around the world where military drills are protested much, but impact little, it's reasonable to assume that condemning military drills is a formality.

The fact is that ready, often-drilled militaries do deter wars, despite how defense officials might posture and talk tough.