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November 05, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 8: Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at DETROIT LIONS As
this is a betting column, what would the odds have been on Detroit entering
Week 8 owning the league’s second ranked passing offense (307 yards per game)?
Probably quite short, you’d think.

What
would the odds have been on that second ranked passing offense having Calvin
Johnson with a solitary touchdown to his name? You would have been able to make
up your own odds. Go away quietly now son, this ain’t no time to be fooling
with the oddsmakers. It ain’t gonna happen so have whatever price you like. And
just like that we all fattened our pockets on the Matthew Stafford to Johnson
conduit becoming as clogged as a hardening artery.

Perhaps
as a reminder of Johnson’s sporting mortality or simply because Seattle’s
brashest young cornerback has a reputation to maintain as Seattle’s brashest
young cornerback, Richard Sherman added a little spice to this contest by
transforming his Twitter handle this week to ‘Optimus Prime’, a burst of
friendly fire in the direction of Johnson’s ‘Megatron’ moniker.

This
wasn’t so much Sherman calling Johnson out, as many in the media have portrayed
it (but why wouldn’t they?), more a reminder of who’s coming to town and
Johnson took it superbly well, simply saying, “Self-given nickname. Hey, if
that’s who he wants to be, that’s cool.” No, what’s cool is that you ain’t mad,
bro, and despite it being a relatively innocent gesture on Sherman’s part (with
only a slight hint of mischief mixed in), I’ll wager Sherman was hoping for a
meatier response from Johnson. Despite him being the opposition this week, you
have to like a player who decides he’ll let his football do the talking.

Dare
you bet against the Seahawks this week as the underdog? In plain old black and
white, no you don’t. They’re 5-0 ATS as the ‘dog and can be backed +2.5 this
week. The Lions (available -1) are 2-4 ATS on the season and 0-2 ATS at home as
the favourite, failing to cover at Ford Field against the Rams and Vikings.
Seattle are sure to prove popular among bettors based on all of that, but that
run will come to an end somewhere and it’s more likely to happen on the road
that at the CLink.

I’m
all for backing a team coming off an emotional loss, particularly a contender
(even of the wild card variety) and the Seahawks will know that, but for some
abysmal drops among its backs and receivers last week, they would have pushed
the 49ers a lot closer than 13-6. I appreciate that I’m preaching to the
converted here, but Seattle can easily win this SU so any points on offer is
simply a bonus and I’ll say here, long before the end of this post, that I
think the Seahawks will win from scratch.

Frank
Gore showed other running backs the way last week, rushing for 131 yards on
Seattle’s vaunted run defense, each of his 16 attempts going straight up the
gut, between the tackles. It was alarming to watch from a biased viewpoint and
is thankfully something unlikely to be repeated this week. Mikel LeShoure,
Kevin Smith and Joique Bell aren’t names to strike fear into that
aforementioned run D, averaging as they are 4 yards per carry as a committee.
‘Megatron’, over to you.

Ex-Seahawk
Nate Burleson was lost for the season this week after suffering a leg fracture
last Monday against the Bears and he’ll certainly be missed, if for no other
reason than he leads Detroit in receiving touchdowns this season with two. Yes,
two. I’ve just had to triple check that the Lions really do rank second in the
league in passing.

Titus
Young and Ryan Broyles will be expected to step up some in Burleson’s absence,
but that won’t overly worry Seattle’s secondary. Not this week. Johnson
naturally will for sure, but Stafford isn’t enjoying a stellar season, throwing
five touchdowns against six interceptions and the Lions really are there for
the taking. Football can seem such a simple game sometimes.

Detroit
struggled mightily last week in Chicago, only getting on the scoreboard with 30
seconds remaining when Broyles caught the first touchdown of his pro career.
Perhaps it’s a mite harsh of me to say they struggled mightily as it’s not as
though they didn’t move the ball, but three red zone turnovers is unforgivable.

The
Bears boast a top ten defense, as does Seattle, and while it’s easy to think
that the Lions can be expected to struggle again this week, playing on the road
at a division rival on a hot streak on a Monday night is a far cry from playing
at home to a team who struggle to pass the ball effectively.

Labouring
the obvious point, it must be hoped that Marshawn Lynch can shred Detroit’s run
defense for more than the 108.8 yards per game they’re currently yielding. He
and Robert Turbin both average 4.4 yards per carry and have combined for only
two touchdowns, which doesn’t properly tell the full story of Seattle’s eighth
ranked rushing offense.

The
Lions are likely to dare Russell Wilson to pass on them as he won’t project any
fear into a Detroit pass defense giving up 210.5 yards per game through the
air, good for sixth in the NFL. While Wilson isn’t easily flustered, he’s
thrown each of his seven interceptions this season on the road. That said, he put
the ball in exactly the right place plenty of times on the road last week and
can’t account for his targets not sticking to their end of the bargain.

Last
week’s loss in San Francisco was hard to swallow and the more I research this
game and write about it, the more the feeling exists that the Seahawks are the
more motivated for this one. I base it on a lingering hurt from last week and
the knowledge in Seattle that this team plays five of its last eight games at
its fortress of a home stadium, where Wilson has yet to throw a pick and boasts
a 116.9 passer rating.

To
leave Detroit with a 5-3 record and the most brutal part of the schedule in the
rear view mirror would keep them firmly in the division title hunt and at worst
bang in the mix for a wild card spot. I would have settled for that after eight
games.