Saturday, November 12, 2016

Fact-checking Trump's plan for the first 100 days

After a campaign characterized by vagueness and tiny hand-waving, Donald Trump finally released a semi-detailed plan for his first 100 days in office yesterday, including "a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated" and "cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama."

Today, NPR fact-checks Trump's plans, investigating whether they would pass Congress, pass Constitutional muster, or in any other way intersect with reality. Most of them, unsurprisingly, are doomed. Some, scarily, are not: Trump is likely to gut both environmental rules, net neutrality, and finance regulations that serve as a curb on reboot of the 2008 crisis. Of course, Mexico is not paying for that fucking wall.

He will probably be able to kill Obamacare, which could signal the end of my US residence. I live with a chronic, debilitating medical condition, am self-employed and am uninsurable without the Affordable Care Act. I'm holding out hope that California's proposal to replace the federal health-care law with a state one will rescue me and the millions of others who depend on ACA.

5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and let states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.

The GOP Congress has already demonstrated its willingness to repeal the insurance tax subsidies and Medicaid expansion portions of the Affordable Care Act, along with the requirement that all Americans have health insurance, using a fast-track legislative maneuver known as "reconciliation" that prevents a Democratic filibuster. President Obama vetoed that measure, but President-elect Trump would presumably sign it. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that could strip health insurance coverage from more than 20 million people -- although the change would most likely be phased in over a couple of years. Trump's replacement plan is less clear. Health savings accounts would allow more people to buy insurance with pre-tax dollars, and selling insurance across state lines might increase competition and reduce prices. But coverage will very likely remain out of reach for many. The requirement that insurance companies provide coverage to people with pre-existing conditions cannot be repealed through reconciliation. But preserving that requirement without the individual mandate to purchase insurance could create a costly situation in which people wait until they're sick to buy coverage.