GodHatesClevelandSports wrote:Good: Louisville scores TD on last play of game to get to the number at +13Bad: Kicker misses his second XP of the game -- PUSH!

Brutal.

I feel for you man.

Good thing I only had $5 on it!

I've been taken Phil Steele's picks (PhilSteele.com) and playing a little bit on a lot of them. I haven't added it up over the course of the year to see if it is a wise strategy, but in the weeks I've done it it works pretty well. Every game where he has a 10-point discrepancy between his winner and the point spread, I take that team. And if he picks an underdog to win SU, that's a bet. I've just been putting a five spot on each one. The point-spread winners have been doing better than the underdog SU winners, but on those you really only have to hit around 45-50% to eke out a little profit since you're getting extra bet. For today this strategy gave me:

Clemson -7½ (easy winner)Ohio State -13½ (oops)Middle Tennessee +170 (never a chance)Louisville +13 (idiot kicker)Georgia -7½ (easy winner)Ball State +135 (never a chance)Ohio U -14 (looking good)East Carolina -18½ (up 18 in the second quarter)UCLA +140 (back and forth so far)Nebraska -whatever it was (getting slaughtered)New Mexico State +20½ or something like that (hanging so far)Idaho -7 or around there

For later games, he has the following dogs winning SU:

Illinois (he's been on them a lot and they lose a lot)Kansas StColoradoBaylorFlorida AtlanticSMUWashington

Point-spread winners:

Oklahoma State by 17 (favored by 7)UNLV (17 or so dog, he has Utah by 4)

Just hope to hit 55-60%. If you can hit just 50% on those SU dogs you make a profit.

Well, after cycling through all my plays I'm looking at a profit -- either 10% or 30% depending on Washington. They are looking good for a cover with a few minutes late. (Forgot to take them on the moneyline, which has a real good shot.) Didn't go with Illinois cuz they suck.