Monday, August 02, 2010

N.L. FAAB Log: August 2, 2010

Joe Saunders $36. Other bids: $18, $17, $14, $14, $8, $7, $6, $3, $1

Due to website issues, my league could not bid on Saunders until this week. His start against the Phillies may have gotten the high bidder excited, as this is a highly aggressive bid from the eighth-place team. Saunders is a guy who consistently puts up something in the range of a 4.40-4.50 ERA and an FIP about .3 points higher. The move to Arizona will likely not help him, though his GB/FB rate and HR/FB rate work in his favor…we’ll see how those change in Arizona. When your choices of incoming pitchers, however, are Joe Saunders and Jake Westbrook, well, if you need a pitcher, you need to bid on someone.

Tejada is wrapped in steady decline, and is now without an everyday gig in San Diego. Given the nature of the race in the NL West, I cannot envision the Padres putting him at shortstop to replace Everth Cabrera, and he will not displace Chase Headley at 3B. Essentially, he has become an 8 AB per week player, and will not have any significant fantasy value.

Podsednik is a one-trick pony, and for those fantasy owners that cannot keep players who slide over the NL, this horse going out to pasture is a big speed play loss for you. For NL owners, however, Podsednik is likely the best speed play you are likely to see for the rest of the season. Many of Podsednik’s numbers are equal to or better than last year (aside from runs, but look at the lineup he was in), with about 135 less plate appearances. Between the under performing Kemp, the oft-injured Manny Ramirez, and the always injured/not very good back-ups behind him, I see Podsednik in just about every game each week as a pinch hitter, pinch runner or spot starter, and he has tremendous value as a result.

Brett Wallace $22. Other bids: $20, $20, $12, $11, $11, $11, $11.

Michael Bourn is such an exciting player, the Blue Jays could not wait to get their hands on his A clone, Anthony Gose. So Brett Wallace comes to the Astros in what many pundits laud as a nice take for the Astros. Nice take until you look at his MLE: .672 OPS. Ouch. Admittedly, his OPS against left-handed pitching is nearly .800, but I am guessing the Astros didn’t trade for Wallace to use him as a platoon player. He also hits balls out of the park when he gets them in the air. $22 is not a keeper price, even based on spec, but contenders should be wary of Wallace. Unless, of course, you own Pedro Feliz.

I admittedly like Hudson better than my blogging counterpart, so I will try to tone down my Hudson-love. His MLE in the minor leagues this year is an FIP of 4.51, a WHIP of 1.31 and a K/rate of 8.67/9. These are pedestrian numbers for a 23 year old at AAA. On the flip side, while Hudson is not an ace in the making, he appears to be a pretty solid 3 or 4 in the making, and this gives him value. The bidder here is in contention in our league, and I think the $20 bid is not a bad play for the remainder of the year, if Hudson can keep the ball in the ballpark.

Hisanori Takahashi $12. Other bids: $4, $3, $3, $2, $2, $1, $0.

Takahashi has turned into a viable pitcher for the Mets. He is striking out almost a batter per inning, and despite a rather high .323 BABIP, a HR/9 rate of 1.14 and a low ground ball rate, he is keeping runners from scoring. His interiors suggest regression to me, though his FIP and xFIP are both under his current ERA. If you need a pitcher, this is not a bad place to turn.

Aaron Heilman $5. Other bids: $4, $2, $1.

Heilman has been very good this year, and appears poised to wrest the closer job out of everyone else’s hands in the Diamondbacks bullpen. Heilman’s problem is the same as it has always been: he walks too many guys and has a relatively low strikeout rate for a reliever. If you want to take a chance on a few cheap saves, this is your guy, but buyer beware.

Jonny Venters $3. Other bids: $1, $1, $0.

Mike and I have written about Venters here and here. For leagues that reward middle relievers/set-up men, and if you need to lock down your ERA/WHIP, Venters is a viable option.

Wes Helms $3.

Helms has somehow managed 139 ABs this year. While he has some pop in his bad, he is well past his prime, and even the loss of Cantu should not result in too many more ABs.

John Hester $2. Other bid: $0.

Hester has a little pop in his bat. If you are desperate for a back-up catcher, you could do worse. Sadly, you could also do much better.

Jose Contreras $1. Other bid: $0.

Contrary to popular belief, Brad Lidge is not going to lose his closing gig to anyone, never mind Contreras. Charlie Manual is nothing if not loyal. In terms of value, however, Contreras is striking out over a batter an inning, and his ERA/WHIP are acceptable. Like Venters above, if you are now in a position to pick up middle relievers/set-up me, Contreras is a viable option.

Angel Sanchez $0.

Sanchez is a forgotten prospect from the Red Sox system who is spelling Tommy Manzella. His sub-.600 MLE from AAA, his complete lack of power and speed, and his tendency to pound the ball into the ground make him a non-option for fantasy owners.

Jeff Karstens $0.

In 25 words or less, Karstens is a serviceable pitcher on a good team, and potential nightmare on a bad one. If you need wins or ERA/WHIP lockdown, look elsewhere.

I'm not a big Tejada fan or anything, but Everth Cabrera hardly has that SS position locked down. His playing time was fairly sparse even before Tejada joined the team. I think Headly has been subpar as well but that's beside the point.