U.S. Senate debate offers preview of race

The GOP primary for Kay Bailey Hutchison’s vacant Senate seat may show some resemblance the New Hampshire presidential primary – one wealthy, recognizable Republican with a sizable lead over two or three candidates vying for second place, who, unlike the federal race, are hoping to force a run-off.

The first major test will come Thursday in downtown Austin at a GOP debate hosted by the Texas Public Policy Foundation and the Texans for Fiscal Responsibility that features five candidates. Michael Quinn Sullivan, president of Texans for Fiscal Responsibility, said the U.S. Senate seat is important and unique because the winner will be in Washington for six years.

Unlike the presidential race, however, there is not an incumbent for the GOP to target in the debate. This could mean Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst – whose name recognition, big name endorsements and checkbook boosts him to an early lead – will have the target on his back.

Former solicitor general Ted Cruz, who likely will be aiming at Dewhurst, has a campaign that somewhat resembles another Texas legislator, Congressman Ron Paul. His grassroots approach and ability to raise funds represent a similarity between the strategies and techniques of the two campaigns.

“Ted’s appeal, like Marco Rubio’s, comes from a wide spectrum of the Republican Party, which gives him incredible momentum,” said James Bernsen, a spokesman for Cruz’s campaign.

Another player in the game is former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert. In his first campaign ad, he targeted Dewhurst and Cruz by saying he is the real conservative job creator, unlike his opponents, “lawyers and career politicians.”

Daniel Keylin, campaign spokesman, said he expects Leppert to reinforce this message during Thursday’s debate.

“We expect a sharp contrast in the substance and specifics offered by a lifelong businessman and political outsider as opposed to professional candidates and politicians who have worked for the government in Washington and Austin for much of their professional careers,” Keylin said.

After second and third place, fourth and fifth may be more of a wildcard. Former SMU running back and ESPN analyst Craig James will make his first major appearance as a candidate tomorrow night.

James would love to have a night like Jon Hunstman had in New Hampshire, where he finished with an almost-out-of-nowhere third place. Many voters and reporters will be eying James’ debating skills, which have yet to be seen.

Glenn Addison, funeral home director, said he will hope to use the debate to gain recognition for his campaign. He admitted he is a “second-tier” candidate but hopes to utilize the internet to gain voters.

The debate will be moderated by Jason Embry of the Austin American Statesman, Brad Watson of WFAA in Dallas and Pedro Rojas of Univision Houston, and will begin at 7 p.m. at the Hilton Hotel in Austin.

The Austin bureau will be live-blogging the event on the Texas Politics blog.