Trend Updates for November

Share

Updating our Pollytrend estimates for the last month’s worth of polling shows a substantial move back to Labor of around 3 points of two party preferred, all coming directly from a 3 point boost to their primary vote over the same period.

Looking first at the primary vote trends, we have (click to expand)

The Coalition peaked in July with a primary vote of 50 – losing 4 points since, all of which moved across to Labor in net terms. That’s lifted Labor’s primary vote from the low of 28 in July up to 32 today. Meanwhile, the Greens continue to hang around the 12% mark.

In two party preferred terms, we have (click to expand)

There’s been around a 4 and a half point gain to Labor since the lows of July, with 3 of those points coming in over the last 4 to 5 weeks. As you can see from the individual polls, the change hasn’t been some overnight leap, but a much more gradual trend growth in support.

Comparing the current state of play to the last election, we can see that the ALP faces a 4.4% swing against them as of this week – but a much larger 6.2% primary vote swing against them.

Only 2 and half points of that primary vote swing have been picked up by the Coalition, a third of a point by the Greens, with the remainder boosting the broad “Others” vote by around 3 points.

So we currently have the Coalition leading Labor on the primaries by around 46 to 32, with the Greens on 12 and a two party preferred of just over 54/46 to the Opposition.