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December 4, 2009

Fangraphs on Scutaro

In mid-November, Fangraphs' Dave Allen had an interesting write-up on our new shortstop's tendencies at the plate:

The increase in offensive value [in 2009] came, largely, from an increased walk rate, 13.6%, a career high for him and in the top 25 of all of baseball. He coupled that with a low strikeout rate; he was one of the few players in the game to have more walks than strikeouts. This led to a jump in his OBP, and thus offensive value. ...

Scutaro is due for some serious regression to his offensive level, as is anyone who posts 2400 PAs at wOBA of .311 and then 680 at .354. But I think that, because the change is supported by the per-pitch level data, which is not immune from regression itself, we can temper that regression somewhat.

Scutaro can play average defense at second or slightly below average at short, is 34 coming off far and away a career year at the plate, and is a type A free agent. It will be interesting to see what kind of deal he gets.

Guys with big walk spikes in their mid 30s are pretty worrying to me. There are lots of examples where that walk spike is a sign the hitter is laying off things he used to be able to hit but can't anymore. Pretty soon the pitchers figure it out and bust after him, and then it's down hill.

Scutaro's only really played two full, full-time seasons, and those have just come to pass in 2008 and 2009 - two seasons where skills that he's demonstrated in part-time status have sustained out over a longer stretch. ...

Scutoro's contact rate is consistent, and his walk rate has climbed in a way that suggests he's learned or earned it. Scutaro isn't an aging power hitter masking his decline by swinging away or taking vast doses of walks (Giambi etc). He's also not a speed merchant who's overcompensating for creaking legs with a better eye at the plate. He's not a black hole with the bat, he's got range and skills in the field, his position flexibility is a Lowrie-hedge ... Even if 2010 is a regression across the board, merely returning to replacement level at the SS position would be an improvement ...

It's hard to get excited over this signing, but considering (a) what we've recently had at short and (b) what is available this winter, we could have been stuck with far worse. Scutaro can also play second and third and seems more than adequate in the field. And even with a regression from last season, his bat should be a massive improvement; the last regular Sox SS to have an OPS+ even a stone's throw from league-average was Nomar -- in 2003.

Ian Browne has two good articles: a good recap of our shortstop woes (20 (!) different players since 2004 (anyone remember Alejandro Machado?)) and a piece on Cuban defector Jose Iglesias, with tons of encouraging quotes from former shortstop and current Sox minor league infield instructor Gary DiSarcina.