Swing Trading with Raul3

The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap. Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Oil went for a slow grind higher overnight only to be smacked down early this morning. The responsive seller took action ahead of yesterday’s high $51 and pushed us right back to the LVN at 49.84.

I sincerely hope that as I continue to track this commodity you begin seeing the value behind viewing market behavior like an auction. The compliance to value is oil has been nothing short of impressive these last several weeks.

This week has been no exception—the confluence of value area high and micro composite high volume node around $51 was the key reference point for the reversal.

The thick ‘gravitational pull’ of the micro composite point of control continues to behave like a magnet for price down at $49.13.

The Gaussian curve formations show the levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to use this early momentum to target the MCVPOC at $49.13. The level I am more interested in for signs of responsive buying is $48.875, the value area low of 2/26.

Let’s not kid ourselves—chasing momentum has been a selective endeavor. One cannot simply spray and pray for 1 or 2 winners. That game is break even, at least the way I am playing it. But the winners can still pay down the losers and pay the trader who is refined and selective and has some clear expectations.

If you’re finding the market is not hitting your mark, perhaps temper your expectations just a tad.

I am often working a new idea. When you spend a big chunk of your time objectively observing the minutia of an auction you develop subtle insight into it. It is divine, but often you have to develop new tools and strategy as you go because what works one week is tapioca pudding the next.

Some people go mad over the uncertainty of it all. But if you develop some core fundamentals, boulders, then build around them you can express yourself creatively and see immense benefit.

My newest avenue is working 8:30am data announcements. Like this morning’s Personal Consumption figures. The market is often docile before stocks open, yet you know there is an elevated likelihood for news to bring in order flow. Therefore, you sit and watch for a setup to try and grab onto a wave before it flows in.

A few times this leads into trading through the open with a position on which will spur even more order flow. If you have some confidence trading the opening swing, you can earn an honest living by 10am.

Then, if you choose, you can spend the rest of your day roaming the streets collecting cans, explore other business opportunity, talk with family and friends, etc. Life choices become are real necessity, not just something you dreamed about from your prison cell (cubicle).

If I can make more money in 2 hours then I used to make in a week, why work the entire day? That’s just greed.

The article below is from last week’s Weekly Strategy Session. We also caught a nice chunk of this move in Google live in the 12631 trading room:

Let’s revisit the 4 pillars of technology and add in some of the supporting cast members.

To recap, during the 01/19/15 Strategy Session we began looking at shares of Amazon as a “tell” to the durability of momentum stocks. It had a bearish technical setup to start the year and many short-term traders were leaning short. The stock started to “work” for shorts only to sharply reverse back into its consolidation pattern and then gap-and-go higher on earnings.

Then on 02/02 we looked at the potential “failed auction” in shares of Apple. In essence, this technical setup is the opposite of what was occurring in Amazon. On the surface, Apple was making new highs in an uptrend. But, it briefly took out the prior high and then had a fast move lower. Therefore, we hypothesized it may do the opposite of Amazon and punish short-term traders who took the obvious long. It did not. Instead it turned out a strong week for the bulls.

Last week our attention was on Facebook. It was up to bat for the bulls and managed to hit a proverbial double, gaining over 5% on the week.

Following this logic, Google is the next pillar to have on watch. If you recall, the four pillars of technology is a naming convention Google Chairman Eric Schmidt used during a 2012 Bloomberg interview.

From a year-to-date performance standpoint, Google is still slightly outperforming Facebook. But from a rotational point of view, Google is quite a bit behind some of the other marquee names. Check out the year to date performances of these hot money stocks:

Heading into the new month the Nasdaq is trading up a few points. The overnight auction has been on normal range and volume and shows sellers having the slight edge for most of the session. This is shown by rotation size and the weaker looking session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for prices to close the overnight gap to 4448 and then test higher to the VPOC at 4457.75. Overnight high is also up there at 4458 if buyers can take out the ONH the look to continue and test swing high 4464.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through Friday close 4448 and take out overnight low 4446.5. If buyers no show at 4440 mCVPOC then take out weak low at 4429.25 and target NVPOC 4418.

Oil has been spending some time negotiating its micro-composite VPOC. There have been seven aggressive attempts lower from the level and each has been met with responsive buying. $48.60 and below has been the territory inhabited by responsive buyers.

If they lose their responsive aggression below here then we may see a leg lower. Otherwise, we continue holding this VPOC:

A big chunk of my weekend was occupied bringing all of my Nasdaq statistical studies up to date. Traders inside the Pelican room see me rattling off this data throughout the day. It helps me think through the actions of the market to talk through the cold data occurrences real time.

Weekly Strategy Session members, I posted the results of these studies today. You can find this type of in-depth analysis as well as a broad contextual feel in this week’s report—truly a sweet deal if you’ve been feeling a bit out of sorts with the behavior of the market.

Anyhow, it is time for me to accomplish something a bit more tangible. It is universally unacceptable for one to center all their efforts on the intangible.

Lately I have been waking a bit early on days when the market has some news out at 8:30am. I like the slow behavior leading up to the numbers and how you’re almost guaranteed some kind of order flow just ahead of, during, and after the announcement. I also enjoy going through my 10-20 morning rituals extra early, during the magical and transient moments of sunrise.

Today I was long coming into the opening bell, which seldom happens, but I traded two of my opening sequence trades from this position and did some disgusting things to the market. I held true to my morning goal, a simple goal: Walk in, Fuck shit up, Walk out.

Looking at the statistics behind several hundred trades, I can tell you Friday and Wednesday are my worst two days for scalping. Therefore, If I put up solid numbers early on either day I stop after any small loser.

You would think a slow up drift tape would be easy pickings for a trading but the slow action can be deceiving, especially if you have a twisted bias or cannot justify your actions via a hypothesis. The harder you work on the somewhat grey field of context, the better you’ll find your 5-6 trade pictures working.

The market went range extension up 4 out of the last 5 days. There’s a consensus some air needs to come out of this rally. And Monday is the first of the month. I like pushing risk through the start of the month.

Swing Trading with Raul3

The economic calendar is quiet this morning but the week is back-loaded with events. Keep in mind Fed Chair Yellen is speaking around 8pm this evening about bank regulation. We also have ADP employment data tomorrow morning before the open.

Yesterday the Nasdaq opened gap up to start the week and sellers were not quite able to fill the overnight gap. Instead buyers stepped in and made a strong drive up early on. Shortly after we went range extension up before falling back to the MID which lined up with the value area high from 2/26. Buyers then executed a second wave of buying, a completion wave. Overnight price has been drifting lower and spent several potions of the globex session trading 1-time frame down.

Heading into today my primary expectation buyers to push into the overnight inventory early on and target a gap fill up to 4478.50 then 2-way consolidation between 4478 and 4463.50.

Hypo 2 is sellers continue to push during the open, take out 4463.50 to test 4460.75. If no responsive buyers show then look for a fast push down the single prints to take out Monday’s low 4449.75. Look for responsive buying at 4447.25.

Hypo 3 is we push up through yesterday’s close 4478.75 and continue pushing higher prices.

Oil went for a slow grind higher overnight only to be smacked down early this morning. The responsive seller took action ahead of yesterday’s high $51 and pushed us right back to the LVN at 49.84.

I sincerely hope that as I continue to track this commodity you begin seeing the value behind viewing market behavior like an auction. The compliance to value is oil has been nothing short of impressive these last several weeks.

This week has been no exception—the confluence of value area high and micro composite high volume node around $51 was the key reference point for the reversal.

The thick ‘gravitational pull’ of the micro composite point of control continues to behave like a magnet for price down at $49.13.

The Gaussian curve formations show the levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to use this early momentum to target the MCVPOC at $49.13. The level I am more interested in for signs of responsive buying is $48.875, the value area low of 2/26.

Let’s not kid ourselves—chasing momentum has been a selective endeavor. One cannot simply spray and pray for 1 or 2 winners. That game is break even, at least the way I am playing it. But the winners can still pay down the losers and pay the trader who is refined and selective and has some clear expectations.

If you’re finding the market is not hitting your mark, perhaps temper your expectations just a tad.

I am often working a new idea. When you spend a big chunk of your time objectively observing the minutia of an auction you develop subtle insight into it. It is divine, but often you have to develop new tools and strategy as you go because what works one week is tapioca pudding the next.

Some people go mad over the uncertainty of it all. But if you develop some core fundamentals, boulders, then build around them you can express yourself creatively and see immense benefit.

My newest avenue is working 8:30am data announcements. Like this morning’s Personal Consumption figures. The market is often docile before stocks open, yet you know there is an elevated likelihood for news to bring in order flow. Therefore, you sit and watch for a setup to try and grab onto a wave before it flows in.

A few times this leads into trading through the open with a position on which will spur even more order flow. If you have some confidence trading the opening swing, you can earn an honest living by 10am.

Then, if you choose, you can spend the rest of your day roaming the streets collecting cans, explore other business opportunity, talk with family and friends, etc. Life choices become are real necessity, not just something you dreamed about from your prison cell (cubicle).

If I can make more money in 2 hours then I used to make in a week, why work the entire day? That’s just greed.

The article below is from last week’s Weekly Strategy Session. We also caught a nice chunk of this move in Google live in the 12631 trading room:

Let’s revisit the 4 pillars of technology and add in some of the supporting cast members.

To recap, during the 01/19/15 Strategy Session we began looking at shares of Amazon as a “tell” to the durability of momentum stocks. It had a bearish technical setup to start the year and many short-term traders were leaning short. The stock started to “work” for shorts only to sharply reverse back into its consolidation pattern and then gap-and-go higher on earnings.

Then on 02/02 we looked at the potential “failed auction” in shares of Apple. In essence, this technical setup is the opposite of what was occurring in Amazon. On the surface, Apple was making new highs in an uptrend. But, it briefly took out the prior high and then had a fast move lower. Therefore, we hypothesized it may do the opposite of Amazon and punish short-term traders who took the obvious long. It did not. Instead it turned out a strong week for the bulls.

Last week our attention was on Facebook. It was up to bat for the bulls and managed to hit a proverbial double, gaining over 5% on the week.

Following this logic, Google is the next pillar to have on watch. If you recall, the four pillars of technology is a naming convention Google Chairman Eric Schmidt used during a 2012 Bloomberg interview.

From a year-to-date performance standpoint, Google is still slightly outperforming Facebook. But from a rotational point of view, Google is quite a bit behind some of the other marquee names. Check out the year to date performances of these hot money stocks:

Heading into the new month the Nasdaq is trading up a few points. The overnight auction has been on normal range and volume and shows sellers having the slight edge for most of the session. This is shown by rotation size and the weaker looking session low.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for prices to close the overnight gap to 4448 and then test higher to the VPOC at 4457.75. Overnight high is also up there at 4458 if buyers can take out the ONH the look to continue and test swing high 4464.

Hypo 2 is sellers push down through Friday close 4448 and take out overnight low 4446.5. If buyers no show at 4440 mCVPOC then take out weak low at 4429.25 and target NVPOC 4418.

Oil has been spending some time negotiating its micro-composite VPOC. There have been seven aggressive attempts lower from the level and each has been met with responsive buying. $48.60 and below has been the territory inhabited by responsive buyers.

If they lose their responsive aggression below here then we may see a leg lower. Otherwise, we continue holding this VPOC:

A big chunk of my weekend was occupied bringing all of my Nasdaq statistical studies up to date. Traders inside the Pelican room see me rattling off this data throughout the day. It helps me think through the actions of the market to talk through the cold data occurrences real time.

Weekly Strategy Session members, I posted the results of these studies today. You can find this type of in-depth analysis as well as a broad contextual feel in this week’s report—truly a sweet deal if you’ve been feeling a bit out of sorts with the behavior of the market.

Anyhow, it is time for me to accomplish something a bit more tangible. It is universally unacceptable for one to center all their efforts on the intangible.

Lately I have been waking a bit early on days when the market has some news out at 8:30am. I like the slow behavior leading up to the numbers and how you’re almost guaranteed some kind of order flow just ahead of, during, and after the announcement. I also enjoy going through my 10-20 morning rituals extra early, during the magical and transient moments of sunrise.

Today I was long coming into the opening bell, which seldom happens, but I traded two of my opening sequence trades from this position and did some disgusting things to the market. I held true to my morning goal, a simple goal: Walk in, Fuck shit up, Walk out.

Looking at the statistics behind several hundred trades, I can tell you Friday and Wednesday are my worst two days for scalping. Therefore, If I put up solid numbers early on either day I stop after any small loser.

You would think a slow up drift tape would be easy pickings for a trading but the slow action can be deceiving, especially if you have a twisted bias or cannot justify your actions via a hypothesis. The harder you work on the somewhat grey field of context, the better you’ll find your 5-6 trade pictures working.

The market went range extension up 4 out of the last 5 days. There’s a consensus some air needs to come out of this rally. And Monday is the first of the month. I like pushing risk through the start of the month.

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DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author(s). It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. DATA INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO THE USERS "AS IS." NEITHER iBankCoin, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, NOR ANY THIRD PARTY DATA PROVIDER MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND REGARDING THE DATA INFORMATION, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.

DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author(s). It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. DATA INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO THE USERS "AS IS." NEITHER iBankCoin, NOR ITS AFFILIATES, NOR ANY THIRD PARTY DATA PROVIDER MAKE ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND REGARDING THE DATA INFORMATION, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTY OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE.