Schoch: Who can make a state run this year?

I thought it was very impressive when southwest Missouri sent seven teams to small-school state basketball weekend two years ago in my first season here, winning three titles.

Then, last year, the area sent nine teams to state, and won three more titles.

So, it's safe to say there's an established standard of success for the small towns of southwest Missouri.

But what towns can think about planning celebration parties next month?

Class 3 boys

It starts with Mount Vernon in Class 3, as the Mountaineers have the best shot of getting to state from the area.

This would be the third trip in four seasons for coach Skip Brock's team. The biggest hurdle, however, is the team that went the other time in that stretch: Mid-Lakes Conference champion Strafford.

Expect those teams to meet Feb. 27 at Baptist Bible College in a sectional game that should decide the eventual state qualifier, despite highly-regarded Fatima possibly lurking in the quarterfinals.

Last year, when Mount Vernon humbled Strafford 56-22 at sectionals, it was clear the young Indians were a season away. Looking at the way Brock's Mountaineers are playing this year, though, that group might have to wait another long year.

Class 3 girls

This bracket is often dominated by southwest Missouri.

Specifically, the Mid-Lakes has had strong showings, with Stockton earning a title in 2011, and others have made runs to state over the years.

So, why does the Missouri Basketball Coaches Association only have Ash Grove receiving votes in the poll, and even then, have them out of the top 10?

Beats me, but it probably has something to do with records not being as good because of the competition they see throughout the season.

But Mount Vernon had seven losses when it won the championship last year, and I won't make the MBCA's mistake by overlooking the Ozarks.

Give me Fair Grove to advance deep, although watch out for Southwest and Willow Springs.

Class 2 boys

Billings is the team to beat after winning state last year and bringing back much of its very sizable offensive production.

Crane has a nice team, but I haven't seen much evidence they will be able to overtake the champions.

But since the Southwest Central League has won each of the last two Class 2 titles, Crane should be given more respect by the MBCA poll, and should garner some statewide respect.

Need more evidence to not pay much attention to the MBCA rankings? Clever is rated as a team that is getting votes in Class 2. The problem? The Jays are in Class 3.

Class 2 girls

Speaking of MBCA jokes, last year's third-place team Marionville not being ranked in Class 2 is certainly among them.

However, because of an injury that ended sophomore Josie Young's season recently, the Lady Comets probably won't get a chance to prove themselves again.

So, that makes Crane the favorites. The Lady Pirates have been beating very good teams all season, and in many cases have beaten them badly.

I've got the Lady Pirates at least advancing to state.

Class 1 boys

Fair Play and Eminence are the two ranked local teams, and that seems about right.

After a late-season scoring surge by Fair Play's Lance Schaffer, it appears he could shoot coach Lynn Long's team to a long postseason run.

Class 1 girls

Watch out for Walnut Grove, last season's state runnerup.

Chadwick and Dadeville are both dangerous, but it would take quite an upset for the Lady Tigers to get knocked off locally.

Given the focus after last year's disappointment at state, I don't see that happening.

Contact Matt Schoch at 417-836-1191 or maschoch@news-leader.com. Follow him on Twitter at @MattSchochNL.