The German, who leads the center-right European People's Party in the European Parliament and has thrown his hat into the ring for the top Commission job, was faced with a clear choice on Thursday. He could stick to his line that the best option for Europe is to work closely with Orbán rather than casting him out into the illiberal wilderness, or he could stay loyal to the man he hopes to replace — Jean-Claude Juncker — and the woman who could destroy his political ambitions — Angela Merkel.

The candidacy of Weber — of the Bavarian Christian Social Union — faced formidable obstacles from day one. With no executive experience and the EPP polling in the 20s EU-wide, Weber could have done with more than Merkel’s lukewarm endorsement to get his campaign going. What he didn’t need was a combative Orbán complicating his political future.

But that's what happened in the European Parliament this week, with Orbán unleashing a series of torpedoes and depth charges during his visit to Strasbourg.

Weber’s Orbán problem is not over: There’s a possibility the group could move to eject Fidesz from its ranks.

The membership of Orbán’s Fidesz party in the EPP has been a source of rising tension in the political group for some time. Many EPP members are aghast at the presence of Orbán, who has championed the idea of “illiberal democracy,” in a mainstream political group.

Yet as recently as April, Weber was one of Orbán’s most prominent political cheerleaders in the EPP, with effusive tweets of endorsement and claims of “bridge-building” justifying any differences of opinion.

By the time Orbán finished addressing Parliament Tuesday, those differences had expanded to include the Hungarian strongman’s assertions that the EPP was turning socialist, that the European Union will disintegrate if it does not adopt his hardline migration policies, and that only a dead man (former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl) had the right to kick Fidesz out of the EPP.

Only then did Weber admit that “I didn’t see any readiness from the Hungarian PM to make a move towards his EU partners and address our concerns.”

With his party deeply divided, and a clear majority forming against Orbán in the wider Parliament, Weber was forced to dump the Hungarian prime minister.

If Weber is to secure the Commission presidency, he will need the support of an absolute majority of MEPs in the Parliament that voters will elect next May.

How he handles challenges like this one will determine whether that’s possible. Orbán’s lack of popularity in the current Parliament is unmistakable. On Wednesday, the chamber voted by a margin of 448 to 197 to censure his government.

And Weber’s Orbán problem is not over: There’s a possibility the group could move to eject Fidesz from its ranks, if at least seven of the national parties making up the EPP introduce a formal motion to do so.

The MEPs who voted to condemn the Hungarian government include EPP members from countries across the EU.

After Weber voted “yes” Wednesday, his colleagues in the EPP rushed to praise him, while his political opponents pointed out the obvious flaws of his political gymnastics.

For the Swedish Moderate Anna Maria Corazza Bildt, Weber’s choice showed that “we are a value-based credible political family.”

“Weber showed courage and leadership,” said Roberta Metsola, an MEP from the Maltese Nationalist Party who was responsible for the EPP’s input into the Parliamentary report condemning Hungary. “In our political family there can be no compromise on principle.”

Liberals and Greens, whose votes Weber may need in 2019, demurred. “He’s dead in the water,” said one senior liberal. “If he can’t unite EPP or at least deal with Orbán on his own terms, can you imagine what college [of commissioners] or summit meetings will be like?”

“If you put Weber on a desert island and told him to choose between fish and fruit he would die of hunger,” the liberal said.

Green party officials said they want to reserve judgement until after the election in May 2019.

In the midst of the Orbán crisis, Weber had an opportunity to raise his profile with a strong response Juncker’s State of the Union speech.

Other speakers, like Socialist leader Udo Bullmann and conservative Ryszard Legutko, panned Juncker for a slipshod speech that ignored the union’s core political problems, while others like the Belgian liberal leader Guy Verhofstadt and British Euroskeptic Nigel Farage dazzled with crisp imagery and witty rhetoric.

Related stories on these topics:

Hrvoje Horvat

EPP and Weber after this vote against Hungary are finsihed. In next days we will see split of EPP and next year Weber will not gave enought votes form usless EP to become president of useles s Commission. . Also in this vote EU parliament only 64% of required 66,66% of votes were reach so vote is null.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 6:30 AM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Horvat
you’re not particularly clever, are you…

Posted on 9/13/18 | 11:03 AM CET

Walter E. Kurtz

@Semmi Kozod
You must be another crazy Hungarian celebrating that your country being punished by the European Left by the means of a both morally and legally questionable process. Okay, probably you hate Orban and blame him for everything that went wrong in your little life. You are entitled to feel that way. What I fail to understand though is why people like you are brown-nosing Sargentini & Co for humiliating your own country.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 11:29 AM CET

Peter Kavran

@Walter E. Kurtz
And on what ground are you lecturing any Hungarian about his/her opinion about the Hungarian prime minister? What do you know about Hungary?

Posted on 9/13/18 | 12:07 PM CET

Johann M. Wolff

@Peter Kavran

Meanwhile the Hungarian gov wont the election with a larger majority than the CDU-SPD grand coalition has in Germany.
EU election observers stated the elections were fair and democratic.
So swallow it.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 1:17 PM CET

Ioul Knep

Mr. Juncker leaves a disastrous legacy.
His Commission splitted the EU, nepotism, lack of vision, all subjects of lobbying, the real causes of this shabby governance.
Europe deserved better.

Europe still deserves better.
A new leadership, unfortunately Mr. Macron disqualified himself with his harsh measures against the older generation a working generation harmed and insulted because the lobby is to weak in the new world where illegals seem to take power

Posted on 9/13/18 | 1:31 PM CET

Peter Kavran

@Johann M. Wolff
Though, I don;t see how it comes here, but you are, right.
We have to swallow this:
Popular votes: Fidesz 33%, opposition 34%, not voted 33%,
Parliament : Fidesz 67%, opposition 33%.
I wish you could taste this. 😉

Posted on 9/13/18 | 1:31 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Walter E. Kurtz
You don’t know anything about me.
I’m not happy about the outcome of the vote. I, personally would’ve voted abstain. Furthermore, I don’t really hate Orbán, because he has nothing to do with my life. I am fully independent of what happens in Hungary and I truly don’t care about him personally. I care about my country and my fellow compatriots.
If you had the slightest notion what truly goes on in Hungary, you would understand why I cannot possibly support his “regime”. Despite agreeing with his stance on issues such as migration, islam and the importance of guarding the Judeo-Christian traditions and culture of Europe.
The MEPs did not humiliate my country. They humiliated Orbán & Co. Fidesz is neither Hungary nor the Hungarian people. Thus, the non-stop chanting of “Brussels attacking Hungary and the Hungarian people” is not just a blatant lie but a humiliation of 7 million Hungarians from Orbán’s part.
But yeah, good luck lecturing me about the issues of Hungary.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 2:57 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Peter Kavran
In what ways do non-voters count in any democracy? They just don’t. Fidesz won. Fair and square with a huge margin. Due to the system (first-past-the-post constituencies + party lists) the winner wins big.
This system is implemented in many western democracies.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 3:06 PM CET

Walter E. Kurtz

@Peter Kavran
1) I don’t care what they think of Orban. If they adore or hate him, it’s their business. Hungarians are a rebellious lot of smartasses who would probably loath their PM even if he were a mix of Gandhi, Einstein and Napoleon Bonaparte. So be it, okay. But what pisses me off about them is the treacherous mentality of supporting their own country’s humiliation for the sake of seeing their PM scolded. I mean… you know that no one likes traitors, do you?

2) More than enough to allow myself to have an opinion.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 3:11 PM CET

Peter Kavran

@Walter E. Kurtz
I am a bit lost:
“Hungarians are a rebellious lot of smartasses who would probably loath their PM” … “treacherous mentality” …
“no one likes traitors”
– so you don’t think too much of the Hungarians, except their PM.
Who is Hungarian as well. But different.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 3:26 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Peter Kavran
good luck trying to find any consistend and logical reasoning behind his comment(s)

Posted on 9/13/18 | 3:29 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

*t

Posted on 9/13/18 | 3:29 PM CET

Peter Kavran

@Semmi Közöd
You are right, non-voting doesn’t count, I just wanted to put the “overwhelming majority” in context.

And you are probably right.
Hungarians (political parties) need time to adopt to the completely new electoral system (introduced by Fidesz, in 2012, without any consultaion) where less 1/2 can earn more 2/3. 😉

Posted on 9/13/18 | 4:53 PM CET

Hrvoje Horvat

@Semmi Közöd

Posted on 9/13/18 | 5:50 PM CET

Antoine uk

It is clear to me that Angela Merkel does not want a German to replace Juncker (she has Seylmar and wants ECB so can’t have it all…). So, she picked Weber for internal political reasons: appease the CSU which is the third populist party with AFD and LDP. The risk is that he gets elected by accident… A big accident given how mediocre he seems to be… but the UK chose Theresa May… so everything is possible in these trouble times…

Posted on 9/13/18 | 5:51 PM CET

Hrvoje Horvat

@Semmi Közöd
As ordinary fashist liberal=communist in absence of arguments you start insults

Posted on 9/13/18 | 5:52 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Hrvoje Horvat
a simple “yes” would’ve sufficed, thanks very much

Posted on 9/13/18 | 6:23 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Peter Kavran
Unfortunately they’ve had plenty of time to adapt to it but Orbán’s “Divide et impera” tactics paired with the opposition’s complete incompetence aren’t a good mix. Their lust for political gains and positions were more important than the country and its people.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 6:27 PM CET

Peter Kavran

@Semmi Közöd
Sorry, my sarcasm didn’t come through. 🙂
In my opinion, the two-party system, that is needed the win over the Fidesz in an election, simply does not fit to the hungarian political scene (culture?). It will exists only as long as the Fidesz can feed the camp with enemies.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 7:58 PM CET

Semmi Közöd

@Peter Kavran
Ahh, I see 😀
And yes, you are quite right 🙂

Posted on 9/13/18 | 8:33 PM CET

Walter E. Kurtz

@Peter Kavran – If it wasn’t clear, I was meaning those who cheered Sargentini. Orban is a mixed bag. What he does ranges from utterly brilliant to inexplicably shortsighted.

Posted on 9/13/18 | 9:49 PM CET

Walter E. Kurtz

@Semmi Kozod – sorry I missed your comment published at 2:57. Could you please tell why you replied to Hrvoje with a blunt ad hominem attack, even though you two seem to agree abuot the basics here? And please please educate us all about what’s really going on in Hungary. Also, if you have a minute you could elaborate how the suspension of voting rights is censoring only Orban and Fidesz but not Hungary as a whole?
(Matter of fact, if Art 7 would be about sanctioning particular persons – you know, US-style freezing of accounts, travel ban, or a ban from participating in projects realized through EU funds – and aiming at certain corrupted oligarchs, I could even agree. Though then one could say that the whole circus is about EU money going to Meszaros, Tiborcz et al and not to Colas, Strabag, Hochtief, Alstom, Siemens etc as intended. Oh btw Alstom: did you know that in her “report”, Sargentini blamed the Metro 4 scandal on Orban?)