Exit Poll: 53% of Walker Voters Back Obama

In other words, what I’d been hearing from some Sconnie friends is true: There are a lot of Wisconsinites of all parties who dislike recalls done for anything but criminal convictions and the like, or to redress a perceived imbalance (as happened when Wisconsin voters recalled enough Republican state senators to make the chamber even-steven). Anything that seems like mere political payback simply won’t fly.

So while the Republicans and their local and national media helpers will try to spin this as an anti-Obama vote, it was actually an anti-‘frivolous’-recall vote.

UPDATE: Elsewhere, I’ve used the term “recall resentment” to describe the force that enabled Scott Walker to survive the recall vote. Here’s what I mean by “recall resentment”:

Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters in today’s recall election say recall elections are only appropriate for official misconduct, according to early CBS News exit polls. Twenty-eight percent said they think they are suitable for any reason, while nine percent think they are never appropriate.

My Wisconsin friends had hinted this might happen: Essentially, a lot of them saw this second batch of recalls — which happened fifteen months after the first, when Walker’s betrayals were still fresh in everyone’s mind and people hadn’t got used to having him in power — as more political revenge/payback than a righteous effort to remove a guy unfit for office.

10 Responses to “Exit Poll: 53% of Walker Voters Back Obama”

Which, again, would show this to be an anti-recall vote more than anything.

The upshot is that the Republicans nationwide spent at least $40 million (and probably closer to $100 million) to win this race, whereas the Dems probably spent less than $5 million total, most of it from in-state sources. In other words, that’s $40 million to $100 million that won’t be going to Mitt Romney or to any Republican Senate campaigns.

That was my feeling, too, Supergee. If people get huffy about recalls, why was the most frivolous recall of all, that of Gray Davis, not rejected?

I think the answer is that the propaganda system is able to create a populist tone calibrated to whatever it wants to accomplish. It doesn’t swing the people who know what’s going on (or are so thoroughly indoctrinated that they can’t be changed), but it swings the 5-10% of us who are truly clueless.

The crosstabs are out. Independents voted for Walker 54:45 (less than I had expected) and only 8% of Democrats defected (vs. 6% of the GOP). The worst statistic was that 38% of people in union households voted for Walker. With a 9 point gap, and roughly 8% of Wisconsin being unionized, 38% of 8% (a 3% swing) is not enough on its own to swing the election.

So I really think this comes down to who, exactly, got to the polls. Too few Democrats. Too many uninformed independents.

The union household defection percentage is actually similar to those of other elections. Bear in mind that Walker actually tried to buy off the police and firefighters’ unions, a common tactic for Republicans nationwide.

“Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters in today’s recall election say recall elections are only appropriate for official misconduct, according to early CBS News exit polls. Twenty-eight percent said they think they are suitable for any reason, while nine percent think they are never appropriate.”

So the indictments against Walker, which were likely held back to avoid charges of politically-motivated election tampering, would have been a big force in swaying the vote had the indictments been allowed to happen before the recall. Now that the recall is over and Walker nominally is ‘safe’ until 2014, the election-tampering accusation has no more power and the indictments can go forward.

I’m with Supergee on this. First, California voters recalled Gray Davis for no reason whatsoever. Second, there’s extremely good reason to think that Walker engaged in official misconduct. Progressives tried and failed to persuade Wisconsinites that Walker has committed crimes, whether or not he ever gets prosecuted for them (My opinion is that his conversation with the fake David Koch amounted to a crime).

MarkHsaid

So far Walker has survived better than former governor Siegelman (sp) of Alabama. But, since Walker is a Republican he has probably left a lot of evidence of his actions. If there’s a scent of illegality the gov’t should jump on him like a pig on a grain of rice.