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How about the fact that forward earnings are rolling over at a pace that's only been seen during recessions? Or the wipeout in commodity prices over the last few months, the kind typically seen during recessions?

How One Invests in Commodities

As the prices of commodities have such broad-reaching effects on the economy, an investor can take advantage of changes in commodity prices in several ways.

Generally speaking, coverage or discussion of commodity prices is in terms of futures prices, wherein the buyer is paying for a specified quantity of the commodity for delivery at a later, predetermined date. It should be noted, however, that seldom does a futures investor actually receive the commodity in question, but instead sells it to some other buyer upon the contract's expiration (if not before).
Futures trading reduces the risk for producers of commodities - a good example is a farmer, who must risk the cost of producing agricultural goods without knowing the price they will earn on the market several months later.[1] In this case, futures contracts assure the farmer that he will be paid for the commodity when it is ready for delivery.
For a full discussion of commodity (and other) futures contracts and the underlying mechanisms behind them, see the article on futures.

Spot prices are another means of valuing commodities, wherein the buyer pays the commodity's producer for the immediate delivery of the product. Spot prices can be thought of as the amount of money a buyer would pay a producer for the latter to throw the commodity into the back of the former's truck right now.

A more indirect way to invest in commodities would be to buy or sell the stocks of companies that are most affected by the commodities in question. For example, one could bet on an increase in Oil Prices by buying stock in Exxon Mobil (XOM) or BP (BP). By contrast, if a company has a harder time passing the cost of the commodity onto the consumer would likely see a decline in net income with higher commodity prices. As such, one could take advantage of climbing Oats Prices by short selling stock in General Mills (GIS).

Delivery Dates

Since a commodity is by definition a tangible good, its trading is not a continuous and ongoing activity with a theoretically never-ending trading horizon (like that of a stock) as the good must be at some point delivered in order have any usefulness. As such, commodities futures contracts have typically two or more delivery dates per year. For example, corn is delivered in March, May, July, September, and December of every year. Investing in a futures contract necessarily means that the contract will expire when it is time for the commodity to be delivered.

Commodities Futures Ticker Construction

Unlike stocks, which have a single letter abbreviation for each publicly traded company, commodities tickers must specify not only the commodity but also the delivery date and year of the futures contract. As such, commodity tickers are constructed in multiple parts.

Elements of a Commodities Futures Ticker

Base Symbol – All commodities have a specific and unique base abbreviation (similar to a stock ticker). This is almost always a one or two letter combination. For example, corn is abbreviate C while crude oil is abbreviated CL.

Delivery Month – This part of the ticker specifies for which delivery month this specific futures contract is for. For example, an investor wanting to purchase a futures contract for wheat would need to specify whether he wanted to purchase a contract with a March, May, July, September, or December delivery date. Denoted by a single letter for each month, all commodities futures contracts use the same abbreviation code, a table for which can be found at the bottom of this section.

Delivery Year – This is a number specifying the delivery year for this specific futures contract. As futures contracts can often be purchased or traded more than a year in advance of delivery, this number is important to distinguish which specific futures contract the investor is purchasing. (For example, an investor would need to distinguish whether he was purchasing a rough rice futures contract for January 2009, or January 2010 delivery.) Depending on the service used, this may be denoted either as a single digit (the final digit of the four-digit year number) or two digits (the final two digits of the four-digit year number).

Exchange – This convention is typically used external to the exchange on which the commodity is trading. The grammar and abbreviation codes for the varying commodities exchanges are far less consistent than the other elements of the ticker and should be checked by the user for whichever service she is using. Wikinvest uses a trailing hyphen followed by the one or two-letter Thomson exchange code.

Traditionally, tickers are constructed by simply putting the components together (specific to the delivery date) to create a three or four character ticker. Soybeans (S) with a November (X) 2009 delivery date becomes SX9 while Lean Hogs (LH) with an April (J) 2010 delivery date becomes LHJ0. While this is the standard denotation it assumes a universe internal to commodities and, as a result, in practice the way these elements are put together to create a full ticker varies dramatically from service to service. (i.e. Financial services that cover both stocks and commodities must alter this denotation to account for potential overlap in symbol.)

Yahoo! finance, for example, uses the convention "XXY##.ABC" where "XX" is the base symbol, "Y" the delivery month, "##" is the delivery year (given in two digits) and "ABC" is the three-letter Yahoo! finance exchange code. For example, wheat with a March, 2009 delivery, on Yahoo! finance, would be listed as: WH09.CBT

Wikinvest uses the convention "XX/Y#-AB" where "XX" is the base symbol, "Y" the delivery month, "#" is the delivery year (given in one digit) and "AB" is the one or two-letter Thomson exchange code.

Corn futures are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (Thomson abbreviation "CB") under ticker symbol C with delivery dates in March, May, July, August, September, and December. The Wikinvest ticker symbol for Corn with a September, 2009 delivery date would be: C/U9-CB.

Gold futures are traded on the COMEX, which is part of the New York Commodities Exchange (Thomson abbreviation "NC") under ticker symbol GC with delivery dates in February, April, June, August, October, and December. The Wikinvest ticker symbol for Gold with a December, 2009 delivery date would be: GC/Z9-NC.

Prices

Commodity Prices are Heavily Inter-Connected

Commodities prices, more so than stocks or currencies are vastly inter-dependent; that is to say the price of one commodity depends heavily on the prices of other commodities as their production and transportation often require the use of, or are in some way intrinsically linked to, other commodities.

For example, the ability to raise and deliver beef requires a significant input of feed grains. As such, if demand for beef increases, so too demand for grains. If demand for beef increases dramatically, grains producers may convert their land for the raising of cattle instead of grains to realize more profit from the highly demanded beef. Conversely, if the supply of feed grains is somehow diminished (bad weather, for example) the price of beef will likely increase to reflect this grain scarcity, as will the price of grain itself. Further, both grains and beef must be transported from their production center to the delivery location, which requires the use of oil. An increase in the price of oil then necessarily creates higher prices for beef and grains.

Commodity Prices have Immense and Far-Reaching Impact on the Economy as a Whole

As commodities are the raw materials and goods used in the production of finished goods or the facilitation of services, even small fluctuations in commodity prices have far reaching effects on industries or the economy in general. For example, in the above described grain/beef relationship, an increase in the price of grain necessitates an increase in the price of beef, which in turn would have direct effects on either the stock prices or profit margins (or both) of the fast food industry, the grocery industry, and the restaurant industry.

Commodity Prices are Dependent upon Global Currency Values

For commodities traded internationally, the strengths of producers and consumer's currencies can affect the prices of the commodities. For example, even if Brazil (the world's leading sugar producer) produces an abundance of sugar in any given year, if the Brazilian Real is particularly strong relative to other currencies, sugar prices will remain inflated.

Commodities Today

Commodities Boom

The global boom in commodity prices in 2008 - for everything from coal to corn – was fueled by heated demand from the likes of China and India, plus unbridled speculation in forward markets. That bubble popped in the closing months of 2008 across the board. As a result, farmers are likely to face a sharp drop in crop prices, after years of record revenue. Other commodities, such as steel, are also expected to tumble due to lower demand. This will be a rare positive for manufacturing industries, which will experience a drop in some input costs, partly offsetting the decline in downstream demand.
One particular commodity to watch is copper, which is a key input into many manufacturing industries. Copper prices have crashed in the last six months of 2008, but are expected to begin rising again when manufacturers begin to increase production and housing starts lift off their bottom later in 2009.
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