It’s important to understand where EGI comes from if we want to predict it for the future. With about 20% of the season past, it’s possible to draw some early conclusions about the underlying factors of EGI. Looking at an individual game, it’s easy to see if that game is going to be scored well: lead changes, late come backs, blown saves – all of these things will drive the score up. But what gets a team into these situations?

Certainly being in close games makes a big difference. Blowing out too many games, or being blown out won’t keep people interested late in the game. Take a look at the Angels, the least exciting team, and you’ll see a lot of blow out games (in both directions). In fact, only 15 of their 34 games have been within 3 runs. Compare this to the Nationals, who have 25 of 33 games within 3 runs, and 16 of 33 within 1 run.

What makes a game exciting? We all know it when we see it: lead changes, a big come back, extra innings, a lot of baserunners. However, the way in which all these things happen matter. On April 21st, there was a particularly interesting game, although it turned out to be less exciting than you’d expect at first glance.

The game was Yankees at Red Sox. It involved a huge comeback by the Yankees over a pivotal two innings. Down 9-0 in the 6th, and 9-1 in the 7th, the Yankees were completely out of the game. And then, over the course of 13 batters, they scored 10 runs to take the lead. Over the next 11 batters they piled on 5 more runs and put the game out of reach. Here’s a chart of their Win Expectancy: