NFL draft: WPI study analyzes value of picks

Patriots coach Bill Belichick puts an emphasis on “value” in the NFL Draft, and according to a study conducted by four WPI students, he’s lived up to his word over the last 13 years.

The study, titled “Evaluating Talent Acquisition Via the NFL Draft,” determined the Patriots rank as the fourth most cost-effective team at drafting players from 2000-2012. Additionally, analysis of the past 13 seasons shows that second-round picks represent the best value with 70 percent of the production of first-round picks at 40 percent of the salary.

The Patriots entered this year’s draft with a franchise-low five picks, including one each in today’s second and third rounds.

Craig Wills, the head of WPI’s department of computer science, advised four WPI undergraduates, Casey Barney, Anthony Caravella, Michael Cullen and Gary Jackson of Hopedale, on the study, which was conducted as part of the students’ interdisciplinary project.

The group spent more than seven months collecting and analyzing data on more than 3,000 players.

“I feel good about the work because they have such a large amount of work,” Wills said. “You get nice averages. The odd-ball effects go away.”

Wills came up with the idea for the project around this time last year, soon after the 2012 NFL Draft had concluded.

“I was driving home thinking about all the pundits that come forward with their grades,” Wills said, “‘This team got an A, this team got a C,’ and I’m thinking, ‘They don’t know. The only way you can evaluate how well a team has done is to look at it historically, after the fact.’ So that was the impetus for the idea of how can we look at how well teams have done and look at it relative to how much cost they’ve expended to acquire these players.”

The study group used two primary metrics for measuring the cost of drafted players — the round in which the player was taken and a table of draft-pick values developed in the NFL in the 1990s.

The group then used two metrics for measuring the success of drafted players. The first, Approximate Value, was developed by Doug Drinen, the founder of pro-football-reference.com and assigns a value to each player’s performance for a season. The second metric, Appearance Value, was developed by the WPI researchers and assigns points for games played, games started and recognition (Pro Bowl, All-Pro selections).

“You expect top players like Griffin and (Colts quarterback and first-round pick) Andrew Luck to succeed,” Wills said, “and you do expect some lower-round players to succeed. We just don’t know upfront which ones they will be.”

Belichick’s draft history with the Patriots has been good and bad. The Patriots have had some big-time hits (quarterback Tom Brady in the sixth round) and some serious misses (running back Laurence Maroney in the first round). In addition to Brady, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (second round) and Aaron Hernandez (fourth) are so far looking like some of Belichick’s best work in terms of value and talent, though both battled injuries last season.

If not considering cost, Green Bay has drafted the best players since 2000, according to the report, with the Patriots ranking second. When cost is considered, the Steelers are tops at drafting with the best ratio of player success to cost. Indy, Green Bay and the Patriots follow. The Rams ranked as the least efficient team.

As for the second round, which the study determined is where teams get the best value, the Patriots have had their ups (Gronkowski, Deion Branch, Matt Light) and downs (Adrian Klemm, Chad Jackson, Ras-I-Dowling) there. The second round gets under way at 6:30 tonight.

Belichick has a penchant for trading down and piling up picks during the draft.

“When I was looking at trades between teams during the draft, the Patriots stood out,” Jackson said. “Changing out, changing down, trading even, trading a player for another pick.”

Indeed, during Belichick’s tenure, the Patriots have made 50 draft-day trades — 17 up, 15 down and 18 for a player or future pick.

“Just because the Patriots accumulate a lot of later-round picks doesn’t mean they’re going to succeed with them,” Wills said. “How successful they are at talent evaluation is an independent thing from this value of the various rounds.”

The study found that safeties provide the greatest value to teams, although teams usually spend the most to acquire quarterbacks, defensive ends and offensive tackles.

Jackson, who is a member of WPI’s rowing team, said he doesn’t have time to watch all seven rounds of this year’s draft, but he’ll keep an eye on who goes where and whom the Patriots select.

Contact Jennifer Toland at jtoland@telegram.com

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