Just For Fun

For the first time since the coronavirus pandemic began in the United States, things seem to be getting slightly better, at least on the national level. This is welcome news for everyone, of course, although it still may be too early to tell whether the positive trends now slowly developing will be sustained over the next month or so. But at any rate, things do seem to finally be headed in a more positive direction. So it's time for some very cautious optimism.

When looking at the data, a pretty clear picture of the spread of the virus can be seen in the charts done over time. In March, the numbers began climbing dramatically, following an exponential curve for a while. In April, the curves topped out and began to plateau. What's now become apparent is that the plateau itself now seems to be slowly but steadily decreasing over time, which really started happening in earnest a few weeks ago.

Of course, there are caveats and warnings necessary when looking at raw data in such a fashion. The first is to not fall into the trap too many in the media so often do, by getting excited about one or two days' worth of data. Numbers move up and down on a daily rate even without the human variable, so you have to look at curves of five-day averages or even seven-day averages in order to remove the day-to-day statistical noise. The human element is pretty plain to see in all the charts, after all -- some people in the public health reporting pipeline do not work on the weekends, which results each and every week in a big dip in the numbers from Saturday through Monday (or even Tuesday). Then there's a big spike as the backlog is cleared, midweek. So these hills and valleys have to be smoothed out to get a more accurate picture of what is actually going on.

One of the best things about the data is that America's caseload didn't dramatically shoot upwards when testing finally became widely available (which took far too long, and was only really achieved within the past few weeks). If having enough tests to avoid severe test rationing (as was prevalent at the start of the outbreak) didn't show a subsequent spike in the caseload, then it can be assumed that the number of cases not being diagnosed and tested now isn't all that high (at least for the cases where symptoms actually show up). That's good news, because it could easily have gone the other way -- with more testing available, the numbers could have turned back up and hit a much higher plateau, but so far this has not happened. That is good news indeed.

The number of new daily cases reported climbed quickly to around 30,000 per day, and then plateaued for almost a month. But over the past three or four weeks, this average has slowly inched downwards. Right now, this number stands somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000 cases per day, and could dip below 20,000 per day within another week or so if the trend continues. The curve for hospitalizations is also reportedly trending slowly down.

Deaths per day are also following a similar trend, at a much lower level. The highest point we hit (in early April) was north of 2,000 deaths per day. This slowly crept down to where it is today, roughly between 1,000 and 1,500 deaths per day. This average could fall below 1,000 per day in the near future. We're still on track to hitting 100,000 total deaths by the end of the month, however, which will be a very grim milestone.

The real number to watch is perhaps the most inaccurate one, in terms of trusting how up-to-date the current data is. The most important chart to show a bell-shaped curve is the one that tracks "active cases." I should note that the graphs for totals -- total deaths, total cases -- are never going to curve back down, because they are cumulative and will (best case) flatten completely out and never rise again. Of the daily charts, the active cases curve is the most important one to see moving down, and will ultimately (hopefully) hit zero once again -- meaning no one in America is currently sick with the virus. But the active cases numbers are calculated by taking the total number of cases and then subtracting the total number of deaths plus the total number of recovered cases -- people who got sick, but are now well again. And in the midst of a pandemic crisis, counting the number of people who have recovered has to be the lowest priority for the frontline medical staff. Making sure the number of new cases and deaths are accurate is much more important. Verifying recoveries might involve checking in with every single person diagnosed with COVID-19 to see how they're doing, because many of them were never hospitalized (meaning there may be no paper record of when they got better). But eventually the flood of data in the other categories will abate to the point where the recoveries can more accurately be tallied up. This may be the point where the number of active cases graph actually does flatten completely out and then begins to turn back down -- but we're not there yet. While the daily cases and the daily deaths are now bending slightly downward, the active cases continue to climb.

Of course, in a nation as big as America, there will be a lot of regional and even state-to-state differences. Much of the good news nationally stems from the fact that New York is now seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. New York City had such a high percentage of the national caseload that when their numbers turned down, it masked smaller spikes upwards in other places. This is indeed happening to some extent, but there isn't enough data (or not enough granular state-by-state analysis has been done) to accurately see what the picture is truly like when you start looking at how each region is doing -- at least for the time being. This will likely improve over the next few weeks as well.

Part of the reason we're about to get much more granular data analysis is that everyone wants to know if the states that reopened the earliest are seeing any resurgence of the outbreak. But we're still somewhere in the lag time, so this picture is nowhere near clear enough yet. There are built-in lag times that delay what the data can tell us, and as a result we're always looking anywhere from two weeks to a full month behind in the rearview mirror. The lag time for testing has gotten better, but the lag time between being infected and actually coming down with symptoms is never going to improve, since it is just the nature of this particular viral strain. So the jury's still out on the states that opened first, and the jury will likewise be out for at least another week or two on all the other states that followed suit later on.

Then there's another human-caused problem to deal with. There are already some disturbing instances of some states trying to manipulate their data to appear better off than they may actually be, for purely political reasons. Governors that opened early are desperately trying to prove that they did the right thing, which has already led to some bizarre manipulation of data. Georgia just got caught putting out laughably unscientific charts which actually moved days around on the calendar in an effort to show trendlines that always headed down. All of sudden, Thursday was followed by the previous Sunday -- because it looked so much better that way on the chart. This ham-fisted attempt was spotted early on, but it won't be the only way politicians try to manipulate data, some of which may be much more subtle and harder to identify. Florida just fired the person responsible for their public health website, which up until now had gotten praise for how transparent and complete their data presentation was. But the woman who was just fired claims she got the boot because she refused to start limiting the public data available. It's a pretty easy assumption that her replacement will be following marching orders from the governor, who obviously wants to adulterate the data in order to make himself look better. And these are just two states -- this sort of thing could be happening in a lot of other places as well, so it is something to be wary of in the upcoming weeks. Medical data shouldn't be political, obviously, but in the age of Donald Trump everything is political, it seems.

The United States currently has the worst-shaped curve in the developed world, and not just in sheer numbers. We are less than one-twentieth of the world's population, but we have one-third of all the world's cases. That is pretty dismal. And with very few exceptions, no other country has experienced such a badly-shaped curve as America has. This is almost certainly due to the fact that we have had zero national plan to deal with any of it -- something every other country immediately saw the necessity for. We still have no national plan for testing and no national plan for contract-tracing, which is what pretty much every other developed country on Earth has used in order to keep their curves much, much flatter than our own. Take a look at the comparisons on the Johns Hopkins website to see these differences. Most countries saw a single spike upwards, took drastic and immediate action, and then saw the spike come down almost as fast. Only the countries that dragged their feet on imposing restrictions have seen curves anywhere near as bad as our own -- a curve which shoots up and then rather than coming right back down hits a plateau and begins very slowly decreasing instead. All those other countries you hear about who are opening up their economies are in a much better position to do so because of their early preventative actions -- early actions America just did not take.

But slow or not, at least we finally now seem to be headed in the right direction. That is good news and it is worth cautiously celebrating. It is the first time since the outbreak began that we have had such good news, fragile though it may be, so it's definitely worth pointing out. But as always, there is a caveat. Because there is no guarantee that the trends we're seeing right now -- which are, again, in the midst of a two-to-four-week lag time -- are going to continue heading downwards. If the outbreak flares up in cities and states that have so far escaped the worst of it (because they reopened too early, quite likely), then the national numbers might begin to head back upwards as well. There are indications (in Houston and Miami, to name just two) that this could already be happening. The scale of such new outbreaks will determine whether they influence the national numbers by merely slowing the rate of descent of the national curves, or by actually bending them back upwards once again. There simply is no guarantee that the good news is going to get better, in other words.

But at this point, I'll take what good news there is. And seeing America's curves bend downwards -- no matter how slowly it is happening, compared to the rest of the world -- is good news indeed. If it continues -- as everyone mightily hopes it will -- then life will get better and better for all. And that is certainly something to look forward to.

26 Comments on “Some Very Cautious Coronavirus Optimism”

Another question is whether any breathing space is used to actually set up the test-trace-isolate system, as should have been done much sooner. Along with workplace and school protection, care home protection, regulations or restrictions on larger indoor and outdoor gatherings, medical supplies...

For those of us smart enough to live in the mountains, it's never been a pandemic, only a Dempanic. Damn near nobody of the few people here who are claimed to have it even knows they're sick. If China hadn't put a name to it, the few folks around here who don't quite feel up to snuff would be saying they had "a slight cold", or "a touch of the flu"!

And for this, we cause massive unemployment and genuine hardship all around.

ain't no quotations around the dead relatives. at least five people in my immediate circles had someone close to them die of covid-19, and we're all in quite real danger. just because it doesn't happen to affect you personally at the moment doesn't mean that security measures the country is taking aren't worth the costs.

Um, this is not a blog about Canada nor the rest of the world, so I don't understand what you've got your panties all bunched up over.

[5]

C. R. Stucki wrote,

For those of us smart enough to live in the mountains, it's never been a pandemic, only a Dempanic.

Yeah, a million and a half confirmed cases and pushing 100,000 dead with no reality based end yet in sight, and you're still spouting that Trumpanzee nonsense? BTW I live at 7200 feet and I'm still wearing a mask after San Bernardino County lifted the requirement. Why? Because, unlike your Cheetogod, I actually give a damn about somebody besides myself.

As long as you restrict your attention to a small enough number of people, you wouldn't have noticed that half of them get an extra cold/flu/whatever, or that an extra one-in-thirty to one-in-two-hundred died. That doesn't mean that living in the mountains actually provides any protection at all.

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A focus on the US is appropriate here. The rest of the world isn't handling their response anywhere near as badly.

So sorry to hear about that. Guess I'm pretty lucky -in my region only 1000 cases and 100 deaths. But 80% of those deaths are in long term care facilities and retirement homes. So very sad. Sadder still, for some, the deaths wherever they are don't matter. :(

Sorry Chris, it was 3am and I misread But at this point, I'll take what good news there is. And seeing America's curves bend downwards -- no matter how slowly it is happening, compared to the rest of the world -- is good news indeed. for this:

But at this point, I'll take what good news there is. And seeing America's curves bend downwards compared to the rest of the world -- is good news indeed.

Trump wrote in a tweet earlier, in reference to Michigan's intention to conduct their 2020 presidential voting via mail-in ballotting..."This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!"

There's your problem America, right fucking there.

This abhorrent politicization of an epidemic, hitherto unknown in the brief history of the 'social media age', has created monsters. Trump, the Cuny, has set the tone again, to your shame.

"Dempanic"...Seriously? Outdoing yourself in idiocy, once again, is that how you wish to be remembered, CRS?... No matter, it's rare the musing's of 'mountain' folk leaks beyond the next aiguille, so at least the stupidity of such utterances becoming contagious is as close to nill as not worth mentioning. You can do better.

Trump has, is and, will continue to be your greatest obstacle in achieving physical and mental stability. You squabble and snipe at one another at every political level. That has to stop.

Illegitimi noncarborundum... An obvious, yet apt Americanism of the simplest sentiment. Don't allow this dimwitted creature to swamp your better judgment with his political cuckold of cash and sense, his political future isn't worth your honour.

As it passed, Trump himself voted, via mail-in ballot, in his new found domicile's most recent state election. So I guess one State's mail-in election is valid, while the other's is "illegal"...

Trump wrote in a tweet earlier, in reference to Michigan's intention to conduct their 2020 presidential voting via mail-in ballotting..."This was done illegally and without authorization by a rogue Secretary of State. I will ask to hold up funding to Michigan if they want to go down this Voter Fraud path!"

I think it's a great tweet myself. What better way to show the citizens of Michigan your concern for their life, liberty, pursuit of happiness, and basic "general welfare" than by threatening to withhold the federal funding that supports health care/Medicaid, education, transportation, etc. for Michigan voters, their families, and fellow Michiganders?

Nothing says "I care about Americans" quite like insisting they put their lives in danger in order to safely exercise their right to vote, wouldn't you say?

/sarcasm off

I'm sure it will not surprise you in the least, but Donald Trump is a pathological liar and all-around uninformed dipshit. It is not illegal to vote absentee in Michigan, but these are the kind of lies Trump spews on a regular basis in order to undermine democracy in America. The Michigan Secretary of State did not mail out absentee ballots, she mailed out applications for absentee ballots to all persons in Michigan that are already registered to vote, giving all voters -- regardless of Party -- the opportunity to vote by mail if they choose. In fact, she didn't do anything that her Republican counterparts in multiple other states haven't already done and indeed the RNC in multiple states has been doing for quite awhile now (but only to registered Republicans, naturally).

In another tweet, Trump also similarly threatened to withhold federal funding to Nevada because their Secretary of State, a Republican, is attempting to expand voting by mail in Nevada. Interestingly, in Nevada, the Republican Secretary of State is also being sued by Democrats for Nevada Republicans' efforts to close almost all of Nevada's in-person polling places for the June 9 primary and force voters to mail in their ballots.

So to recap: Donald Trump is a liar and a threat to democracy and now openly interfering with 2020 elections via Twitter threats of withholding federal funding of the People. If you're okay with Trump's attempted blackmail of your elected officials, ask yourself how you'd feel if President Obama threatened to withhold aid to your state unless your elected officials performed to Obama's satisfaction.

Our democracy is under attack, Americans; time to clue in to that fact.

Were you as surprised by Barr’s public announcement that the DOJ would not be used for partisan purposes to go after Obama and Biden as I was... at first? Barr’s claim that the DOJ would never be used to settle political scores sounded a little strange considering his time in office thus far, but was a welcomed surprise.

Then I saw the footage of Trump learning that Barr had refused his wishes, and how shocked Trump appeared...he was downright crestfallen as he mumbled something along the lines of, “Well, if it was me they would be investigating it!” Trump seemed genuinely hurt by Barr’s statement. Barr had just embarrassed Trump, and Trump reacted as he always does...he sulked. NO! WAIT!!! That is NOT how Trump responds when someone that works for him disagrees with him or publicly refuses to do as Trump instructed. Trump’s fragile ego runs to Twitter to bash the person! So how did Barr get away with humiliating Trump in such a public way? It does not make sense...until it does.

I admit, watching him saying those words like a sulking 6 yo felt really good....until I realized that I was watching a performance piece! That was EXACTLY the message Trump wanted us to remember... when he wanted the DOJ to investigate a former President for committing horrible crimes, the official response was that the DOJ does not do that!

The bastard is trying to set precedent that the DOJ will not investigate past presidents for crimes committed while they were in office! This explains why Trump refuses to offer up any specifics about what he is claiming Obama supposedly did when he says that “Obamagate” is “The biggest political crime in American history, by far!”.

He doesn’t want us thinking in specifics — Trump just wants us to remember that he is accusing the President that he replaced of committing the “biggest political crime in American history” and that as serious as that claim is, the DOJ refused to investigate the former President and Vice President!

Bottom line: We do not conduct criminal investigations on former Presidents for crimes they committed while in office!!!

We all assumed that Obamagate was just one of Trump’s distractions to take the focus off of his mishandling of the pandemic, but we were wrong. Trump did the same thing in 2016 with his claims that the elections were rigged. Everyone believed it was being said in preparation of him refusing to accept the election results — and everyone argued why it was important to accept the results of the election and why accusations of interference should be brushed aside as non-serious conspiracy theories. That was exactly what Trump was hoping for. He knew that the elections were in fact being rigged...just not the way everyone assumed he was talking about.

That is some pretty advanced three dimensional chess you are accusing him of. Do you really think he is capable of this level of play?

The issue is moot. Trump's handlers and agents are capable of this level of play, and make no mistake when I tell you that Trump is compromised and has no choice but to perform as he's instructed.

So to recap: Trump is bought and paid for via bribery on multiple front; think back about the actions he's taken during his presidency that were in no way in the best interests of the United States or her People and come to terms with the fact that Trump is owned.

I do not know if it is Trump who is the mastermind or someone like a Karl Rove -type person....but someone is very good at planning ahead for ways to fend off being accused of committing crimes that Trump has accused others of committing. It is likely that his psychopathic nature has made him quite good at using projection to make it tougher for his victims to make their accusations believed.

While impressive, I think it may be less a product of Trump’s intelligence than just a product of Trump’s natural instincts for survival.

I admit, watching him saying those words like a sulking 6 yo felt really good....until I realized that I was watching a performance piece! That was EXACTLY the message Trump wanted us to remember... when he wanted the DOJ to investigate a former President for committing horrible crimes, the official response was that the DOJ does not do that!

What Barr and Trump both know for a fact is that agencies in Bill Barr's Department of Justice are currently and definitely will investigate either a sitting or former President of the United States. Remember that Barr has himself personally been actively touring the world and investigating Barack Obama and multiple persons in his administration in an attempt to rewrite the Russia investigation on behalf of Trump and has used his muscle as United States Attorney General to reframe particular results of said investigations and apply the brakes to other aspects still at issue.

Any attempt by Trump to have Barr openly investigate the President and Vice President of the former administration that he's already been busy investigating in an attempt to serve Trump's interests brings attention to Barr's efforts, wouldn't you say?

Meanwhile, Trump keeps flailing miserably in his attempts to blame political ideology and Democrats for the ongoing investigation into Trump and his campaign that was actually ordered by people in his own administration that were appointed by Trump himself and headed primarily by Republicans... the counterintelligence investigation goes on to date while Barr works tirelessly on behalf of Trump to thwart said ongoing investigation.

The bastard is trying to set precedent that the DOJ will not investigate past presidents for crimes committed while they were in office!

"Precedent" is set by jurists in a court of law via decisions and/or verdicts. There is nothing Trump could do to set a precedent that any president could not be investigated by a current/future Department of Justice and the agencies thereunder that wouldn't involve the Supreme Court, and I cannot even see the current SCOTUS setting such a precedent as that. Temporarily halt a particular investigation? Sure. Eliminate investigation of potential criminal acts entirely? *shakes head*

This explains why Trump refuses to offer up any specifics about what he is claiming Obama supposedly did when he says that “Obamagate” is “The biggest political crime in American history, by far!”.

Any specificity on Trump's part regarding to what he's referring as "Obamagate" would invite scrutiny. The accusation Trump is making regarding "Obamagate" is akin to his previous declarations that he "sent a team of experts to Hawaii to investigate Barack Obama and you won't believe what they're finding." What they're finding, of course, is never discussed because there are no investigators who are looking for anything. The accusation of crime is all that's required. Same shit, different day. #Distraction

Bottom line: We do not conduct criminal investigations on former Presidents for crimes they committed while in office!!!

Yes... yes, we do. That's Trump's Mueller problem that Barr has been working hard trying to alleviate and hasn't slowed down yet.

We all assumed that Obamagate was just one of Trump’s distractions to take the focus off of his mishandling of the pandemic, but we were wrong.

We weren't wrong, but you are definitely correct that Trump tries to frame everything in terms that are "black and white"... "opened or closed"... "with us or against us." Trump is trying to use the pandemic to force voters to choose sides. His side.

I am also sure you have not failed to notice that Trump is flailing in his attempts to run the same campaign he ran in 2016. #SSDD

All of America and it's collateral interests are essentially in the hands of a truculent adolescent. I'm not delusional where Trump is concerned, his schtick is laughingly transparent and ultimately doomed to implode under its own weight. His peculiar strain of nihilism, mixed with his monumental failure to embrace autodidacticism was simply a rung too high. Trump has now redefined 'a stable genius' to now mean someone can dodge shit in tight places...

By the by...I only watch FOX NEWS now, I can't take the truth anymore. It's far too depressing :/

It is likely that his psychopathic nature has made him quite good at using projection to make it tougher for his victims to make their accusations believed.

Trump's projection is the equivalent of a 5-year-old hitting his sibling and then running to a parent and claiming "he hit me" when he knows better. Accuse them of what you're guilty of before they have a chance to accuse you. It's this type bullshit that also plays directly into the whole "both sides are exactly alike" bullshit that is so frequently spewed here in the comments section and serves to "turn off" a large portion of the electorate and plays nicely into the "lesser of two evils" bullshit that is bandied about ad nauseam during elections in order suppress turnout.

While impressive, I think it may be less a product of Trump’s intelligence than just a product of Trump’s natural instincts for survival.

Believe Trump when he starts talking like a "mafia Don" and explaining that he knows all about "rats"... because he's one of them.

I can assure you that I do not fail to read between the lines of your posts... nor would I ever. Rest assured that not everything I post is meant specifically for the person to which it is addressed on Line 1. I hear you.

I'm determined to be as blunt as a 'see you next Tuesday'...

One of my nicknames is "ice pick."

All of America and it's collateral interests are essentially in the hands of a truculent adolescent.

You inadvertently omitted "greedy," "indebted," and "owned."

I'm not delusional where Trump is concerned, his schtick is laughingly transparent and ultimately doomed to implode under its own weight.

You err on the side of giving Americans too much credit, and I can say this because I am one of them, although certainly not one of the "rube reds," just to be clear.

His peculiar strain of nihilism, mixed with his monumental failure to embrace autodidacticism was simply a rung too high. Trump has now redefined 'a stable genius' to now mean someone can dodge shit in tight places...

I believe the "stable genius" verbiage is an homage to Trump's heretofore unseen levels of presidential horseshit. Bring a shovel; it is so thick there must be a pony in there somewhere.

By the by...I only watch FOX NEWS now, I can't take the truth anymore. It's far too depressing :/

" It's this type bullshit that also plays directly into the whole "both sides are exactly alike" bullshit that is so frequently spewed here in the comments section and serves to "turn off" a large portion of the electorate and plays nicely into the "lesser of two evils" bullshit that is bandied about ad nauseam during elections in order suppress turnout."

The question that needs to be addressed is, why?

How can it be a winning political platform to bullshit, obfuscate and annoy the fuck out of people to the end that they resign themselves to more of the same by inaction?

I can't get behind that in any way as a political reality.

A democratic system that it tolerates "Obamagates" for no other reason that a black president brilliantly cleaned up the mess of a white one, needs a coup de grâce and a reboot.

Sometimes I imagine what Washington, Madison, Henry etal would make of Trumpian era political tactics...I'd like to think they'd include a president/arsehole amendment...You can't be both at any one time.