Coalition of LGBT groups: Next year too soon for gay marriage vote in CA

The hottest debate among California gay marriage supporters revolves around a simple question: Do you try to overturn Proposition 8 in 2010 or 2012? This week it got hotter, as the community started to choose sides.

Say the P2Pers: Going “back to the ballot to remove the voter-imposed ban on same-sex marriage from the state constitution in 2010 would be rushed and risky. We should proceed with a costly, demanding, and high-stakes electoral campaign of this sort only when we are confident we can win.”

And they’re not quite confident winning, just yet. They point out that $81 million was spent by both sides over Prop 8 and it’s not a good idea to start hitting people up for money in the middle of a recession when 10 percent of California is looking for work.

Plus, the Prevailers say that communities of color haven’t been sufficiently engaged — which was a big problem with the failed 2008 anti-Prop 8 campaign. “The 2008 campaign against Prop 8 did not adequately reach non-English-speaking voters and failed to engage or empower allied groups poised to communicate with millions of such voters.” Here’s the rest of the reasons that the Prevailers say now is not the time.

Several California ACLU chapters backed up the Prevailing wisdom by saying: “If we were to enter a campaign in either 2010 or 2012 with the people of California where they are now on marriage for same-sex couples, we’d have a tougher time winning than we did in 2008.”

“Equality California, the Courage Campaign, Marriage Equality USA and others have made smart beginnings on both conversations with close friends and family and with conflicted voters. But it is far too early to see if these

efforts as currently constituted will change enough minds to get us to a majority, much less to do so by some fixed date,” said a statement signed by ACLU leaders from the San Diego, Southern and Northern California chapters.

Hmmm. Some groups don’t want to wait that long.

The Courage Campaign polled its members in May and found that 82 percent wanted to return to the ballot next year.Courage czar Rick Jacobs said Tuesday that while the CCers “respect” how other LGBT organizations are deliberating over this, his crew will continue to work towards an initiative next year. “We have been building the infrastructure to win marriage equality rights at the ballot box sooner, rather than later. Our members are ready to do the hard work needed to win.”

And Equality California’s marriage director Marc Solomon — who was part of the successful marriage drive in Massachusetts — wrote Tuesday that they won’t go to the mat alone, but in coalition with other groups and with a war chest of $25-$50 million ready to go.

The next step: Equality California has tapped several top California campaign consultants — including longtime Sacramento kingmakers like Gale Kaufman and Richie Ross, Mark Armour and GOP pollster Rick Claussen — and asking them this question: “Based on your professional experience with ballot initiatives and the research and data that is presently available, when do you recommend returning to the ballot to try to overturn Proposition 8: 2010, 2012, or other? On what do you base your conclusion?”

Meanwile, The Marriage Equality crew is holding meetings up and down California with its Get Engaged Tour, asking folks whether they think now is the time to go to the ballot. They’re going to have a big pow-wow next week to discuss their findings. Said a source familiar with the feelings so far on 2010 v. 2012: “Mixed.”

Care to weigh in, marriage supporters (oh, and we’re sure a few opponents will, too, this being the ahem, marketplace of ideas): Should it be next year or the following one?