Texas Tech is coming off a season-low 306 total yards of offense, trounced 66-10 at Iowa State last time out. Entering the game, it was the Big 12 scoring leaders (46 ppg) and ruled the nation in total offense (580.2 ypg). The Cyclones mixed it up on D with a 3-man front and lots of pressure, making it difficult for quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Air Raid offense to adjust. Expect Baylor to roll out some copycat formations, particularly those limiting big plays.

The Red Raiders are relentless on offense. Their 53.5 passes and 433.7 passing yards against FBS competition are tops in the nation. The unit averages 42.7 points per game, but many of the fireworks come when expected to win big. It’s lit up the scoreboard for 69, 55, and 59 points this season in three games as a double-digit favorite. In all other contests, it averages 35.9 per game, going over 40 in just three of eight. The defense, meanwhile, yields 50.8 per game in the latter spot.

Baylor Bears (6-4 SU, 2-8 ATS)

Baylor took a hit in the Oklahoma game two weeks ago, losing senior quarterback, and team leader, Seth Russell, to a gruesome ankle injury. Freshman Zach Smith is now under center. He had a so-so debut in his first career start, losing 45-21 to Kansas State last Saturday. Smith tossed for 258 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions on 27 of 45 passes.

The Bears’ season took a turn for the worst a month ago, regardless. It's lost four in a row SU and ATS. Baylor has not dropped five in a row since 2007, nor five straight versus the number since 2006. The once high-powered offense has been held under 30 points in three straight games.

Baylor’s defense holds FBS foes to a respectable 5.5 yards per play. It’s kept four of seven Big 12 opponents below their projected team total. Add a less-than-dynamic offense to the mix, and the UNDER is 7-3 on the year. With a game total over 70 points, it’s stayed south in five of five.

Since head coach Kliff Kingsbury took over Texas Tech, the team has gone off 28, 25.5, and 17.5-point underdogs in this series. The 12-point difference in the spread is way too much, even with Russell out. Baylor took a hit due to NCAA sanctions, but a good bit of last season’s talent is still intact. Like the Red Raiders, Baylor’s recent form is a turn-off, though so is Texas Tech’s defense.

Historically, Texas Tech is 2-20 straight up in its last 22 as an underdog in Big 12 play. With the game dangling at a dead number, we'll bite on the chalk. Baylor wins by 10 points or more. Savvy shoppers can still get Baylor -5 as of Tuesday night at a few top-rated online sportsbooks such as Bookmaker and BetDSI. Jump on board with Baylor for your college football pick.