November 5, 2018 (LBO) – Foreigners continued to exit the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) with net foreign selling of over Rs3bn on the day. With the accelerating exit by foreigners out of Colombo’s stock and bond markets, Sri Lanka’s constitutional crisis could very well turn into a financial crisis.Analysts say that the crisis (unless resolved quickly) is likely to have trade as well as investment ramifications that could cause a collapse of Sri Lanka’s economy. Further weakness in the Sri Lankan Rupee is expected as capital outflows continue on a significant scale.Sri Lanka is now on the 10th day of an unprecedented constitutional crisis, of which a resolution is not clearly visible. Most of Sri Lanka’s largest trading partners including the US and the EU, have urged the President to convene the Parliament as soon as possible so that the crisis can be resolved before significant hardship is thrust on the populace.

samaritan

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1762Equity Stars : 3825Reputation : 111Join date : 2015-05-16

Yahapalanaya,

The UNP's false propaganda machinery has magnified the local crisis as something equivalent to a military coup and that democracy was in great peril. Adding to it was the declaration by the green blooded speaker that a bloodbath is inevitable. But factually it was not so and President had made it very clear in his address at the public rally held yesterday outlining the reasons for his decision in accordance with the constitution.

Furthermore, this is not the first time the foreigners have been net sellers at the CSE. When Supreme Court declares President's action as legitimate and the expected investment friendly policy statement of the new govt is released the foreigners will return with even more enthusiasm.

So, in my opinion its a very good time to enter the market or else it will be a missed opportunity.

November 9, 2018 (LBO) – Foreign selling of Sri Lanka’s stocks and bonds continued at a brisk pace in the second full week of Sri Lanka’s constitutional crisis.Net foreign selling of government securities was Rs9.9bn for the week, while net foreign selling of equities was Rs3.9bn.In the previous week the figures were strikingly similar with a net Rs10.9bn coming out of the bond market and Rs3.8bn coming out of the stock market.Since the start of the constitutional crisis a total of Rs28.5bn (US$165mn) has fled Sri Lanka’s stock and bond markets.If the crisis continues to drag on, analysts have said to expect further outflows from Sri Lanka’s capital markets. They have warned that if the crisis is not resolved amicably, there could be significant capital flight as well as trade ramifications. Debt refinancing could also get see significant disruption. “A financial crisis is possible” one said.Year to date over Rs130bn has fled Sri Lanka’s capital markets, a key contributor to weakness in the Sri Lanka Rupee in 2018.

samaritan

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1762Equity Stars : 3825Reputation : 111Join date : 2015-05-16

Usually uncertainty prevails when a general election is announced and that affects the share market. But this time it is not going to be so, as certainty will prevail as the MS+MR combine are going to score a landslide victory to form a stable govt. The possibility of the duo forming a govt with a lean majority witnessed the CSE rise in the past week. So, one can expect the bullish trend to continue at the CSE irrespective of the announcement of elections as the outcome is known. The economic woes of the country caused by the UNP govt will be addressed expeditiously to put the economy in track by the new govt. Hence with the expected return of economic & political stability the CSE will reach new heights & foreign funds will flow in with confidence.

ruwan326

@samaritan wrote:Usually uncertainty prevails when a general election is announced and that affects the share market. But this time it is not going to be so, as certainty will prevail as the MS+MR combine are going to score a landslide victory to form a stable govt. The possibility of the duo forming a govt with a lean majority witnessed the CSE rise in the past week. So, one can expect the bullish trend to continue at the CSE irrespective of the announcement of elections as the outcome is known. The economic woes of the country caused by the UNP govt will be addressed expeditiously to put the economy in track by the new govt. Hence with the expected return of economic & political stability the CSE will reach new heights & foreign funds will flow in with confidence.

Ryan Hudson

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 628Equity Stars : 2231Reputation : 70Join date : 2015-02-12

We forget shares now, im enjoying president sirisena s decision, good decision kicking his 6.2 million idiots in the ass and honouring other 10 million who voted for sira and didnt vote at all, ranils pants should be checked and can one of the jadapalas can answer my question are you going to search for agamathi podda (common canda) this time as well or are you going with parajitha kujeetha ranil the man hukazzz hok hok hok hok hukazzz hok hok hok hok and further dont blame us on sira it is your choice 6.2 million idiots, at least this time dont take decision on personal hatred, thats what happened you 6.2 million guys decided on personal hatred against mahi and still you are suffering in your minds hatred is like hot stone in your hand, its your hand that gets burnt hayyo sansare 6.2 million my god save sri lanka from these idiots

Ryan Hudson

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 628Equity Stars : 2231Reputation : 70Join date : 2015-02-12

@Sanjulanka, where were you during last 3 years when we were unsafe, the underworld and butterflies were running this country, i have noted most butterfly fellows have killer instincts, ex: Ranil is batalanda mass torturer and murderer, actually even the president was not safe, he was about to get killed, if that happened whos the pm, Ranil the butterfly with killer instincts, would you safe sanju, are you also a butterfly or one of 6.2 millon idiots?

Yahapalanaya

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@Sanjulanka, where were you during last 3 years when we were unsafe, the underworld and butterflies were running this country, i have noted most butterfly fellows have killer instincts, ex: Ranil is batalanda mass torturer and murderer, actually even the president was not safe, he was about to get killed, if that happened whos the pm, Ranil the butterfly with killer instincts, would you safe sanju, are you also a butterfly or one of 6.2 millon idiots?

6.2 million modayo novei.Srilanka is not swasiland.Try to understand Democracy.

sanjulanka

Manager - Equity Analytics

Posts : 217Equity Stars : 1123Reputation : 13Join date : 2016-06-14

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@Sanjulanka, where were you during last 3 years when we were unsafe, the underworld and butterflies were running this country, i have noted most butterfly fellows have killer instincts, ex: Ranil is batalanda mass torturer and murderer, actually even the president was not safe, he was about to get killed, if that happened whos the pm, Ranil the butterfly with killer instincts, would you safe sanju, are you also a butterfly or one of 6.2 millon idiots?

Ryan Hudson

butterflies are disgusting let alone assigning work to them, we should discourage butterfly behavior,

the 6.2 million are not modayas but they are pal modayas with hatred filled in their hearts, they failed miserably cos of hatred and revenge, hope they dont have killer instincts like ranil,

im sure some of 6.2 million will understand this, but some of them are still filled with hatred, and they want to distroy this country cos of hatred they have in their hearts, they say my3 decision is unconstitutional, and afraid to go to polls, ayyo sansare, these 6.2 million who now shout for democracy were silent when when corrupt unp was postponing provincial council elections,

Ryan Hudson

Assistant Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 628Equity Stars : 2231Reputation : 70Join date : 2015-02-12

@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yahapalanaya

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yes after election UNP will form government in 2020.Until such time current legal government would continue...Let's see supreme court decision...

ruwan326

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yes after election UNP will form government in 2020.Until such time current legal government would continue...Let's see supreme court decision...

I don't think there will be an General election soon and SC will rule out the parliament dissolve

samaritan

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yes after election UNP will form government in 2020.Until such time current legal government would continue...Let's see supreme court decision...

I don't think there will be an General election soon and SC will rule out the parliament dissolve :roll:

MR will find sufficient time to hold 113+

SC will take into consideration the special circumstances that lead to dissolution, the key reason being to avert possible bloodshed inside & outside the parliament in addition to provisions in the constitution relied upon by the President.

ranferdi

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yes after election UNP will form government in 2020.Until such time current legal government would continue...Let's see supreme court decision...

I don't think there will be an General election soon and SC will rule out the parliament dissolve

MR will find sufficient time to hold 113+

SC will take into consideration the special circumstances that lead to dissolution, the key reason being to avert possible bloodshed inside & outside the parliament in addition to provisions in the constitution relied upon by the President.

You start the brawl at a house and wants the house owner to step out because there is possible bloodshed.. The funny Aaappaya.

ranferdi

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@Sanjulanka, where were you during last 3 years when we were unsafe, the underworld and butterflies were running this country, i have noted most butterfly fellows have killer instincts, ex: Ranil is batalanda mass torturer and murderer, actually even the president was not safe, he was about to get killed, if that happened whos the pm, Ranil the butterfly with killer instincts, would you safe sanju, are you also a butterfly or one of 6.2 millon idiots?

forget last three years.. How about 10 years prior to that.. how many were killed. So called butterflies didn't kill, didn't use state media for promotion that the problem . You are blind to see the truth.

samaritan

@Ryan Hudson wrote:@ sanju no need to increase share market, now enough, we will see after election, now get your chap ranil out of araliya mandire like the dog taken for bath and face the peoples song, then once he win he will rob central bank again give some money to you

Yes after election UNP will form government in 2020.Until such time current legal government would continue...Let's see supreme court decision...

I don't think there will be an General election soon and SC will rule out the parliament dissolve :roll:

MR will find sufficient time to hold 113+

SC will take into consideration the special circumstances that lead to dissolution, the key reason being to avert possible bloodshed inside & outside the parliament in addition to provisions in the constitution relied upon by the President.

You start the brawl at a house and wants the house owner to step out because there is possible bloodshed.. The funny Aaappaya.

President KUMARATUNGA: I was forced into it by a total breakdown of cohabitation in government. The Prime Minister (Ranil Wickremesinghe) was determined to harass me and chase me out. He has only one obsession: he wants to be the President. And he does not seem to care what happens to the country in the process. We came to an impossible impasse. The only way to resolve it was to ask the people for a mandate. —TIME’s Alex Perry at President’s House in Colombo, March 29, 2004

As for the present scenario there was a total breakdown of cohabitation between the Executive and the Parliament leading to a constitutional crisis which necessitated the President to dissolve Parliament using powers vested in him.

samaritan

Senior Vice President - Equity Analytics

Posts : 1762Equity Stars : 3825Reputation : 111Join date : 2015-05-16

In my opinion the people who speak for the UNP in this forum either don't have a CDS account or a blank portfolio if they have one. Or else, who is the investor who will not want to see a vibrant stock market under the rule of MS+MR and opt for a permanent sluggish bear market under a UNP rule? Haven't they learnt a lesson over the past nearly four long years?????? Let alone the stock market, at least did the UNP govt uphold the principles of the so called Yahapalanya??????

ranferdi

@samaritan wrote:In my opinion the people who speak for the UNP in this forum either don't have a CDS account or a blank portfolio if they have one. Or else, who is the investor who will not want to see a vibrant stock market under the rule of MS+MR and opt for a permanent sluggish bear market under a UNP rule? Haven't they learnt a lesson over the past nearly four long years?????? Let alone the stock market, at least did the UNP govt uphold the principles of the so called Yahapalanya??????

Are you dreaming, The chaos created by MY3 MR is running country through drainline, The tourists arrivals are plummeting , loans grants cancelled, GSP plus in danger, US visa ban on the way, Sanctions may hit if this comic by duo not stopped.

samaritan

@samaritan wrote:In my opinion the people who speak for the UNP in this forum either don't have a CDS account or a blank portfolio if they have one. Or else, who is the investor who will not want to see a vibrant stock market under the rule of MS+MR and opt for a permanent sluggish bear market under a UNP rule? Haven't they learnt a lesson over the past nearly four long years?????? Let alone the stock market, at least did the UNP govt uphold the principles of the so called Yahapalanya??????

Are you dreaming, The chaos created by MY3 MR is running country through drainline, The tourists arrivals are plummeting , loans grants cancelled, GSP plus in danger, US visa ban on the way, Sanctions may hit if this comic by duo not stopped.

Yes i dream at night but you are day dreaming. Stock market is widely considered as the barometer of economic development/growth, and what we witnessed over the last nearly four years needs no explanation. We have lost much much more thro' unprecedented corruption & robbery than what we gained thro' GSP+ etc. The latest strategy is to scare people with the chorus "sanctions are coming", but in reality people fear UNP more than sanctions.

THUWA

@samaritan wrote:In my opinion the people who speak for the UNP in this forum either don't have a CDS account or a blank portfolio if they have one. Or else, who is the investor who will not want to see a vibrant stock market under the rule of MS+MR and opt for a permanent sluggish bear market under a UNP rule? Haven't they learnt a lesson over the past nearly four long years?????? Let alone the stock market, at least did the UNP govt uphold the principles of the so called Yahapalanya??????

Are you dreaming, The chaos created by MY3 MR is running country through drainline, The tourists arrivals are plummeting , loans grants cancelled, GSP plus in danger, US visa ban on the way, Sanctions may hit if this comic by duo not stopped.

Yes i dream at night but you are day dreaming. Stock market is widely considered as the barometer of economic development/growth, and what we witnessed over the last nearly four years needs no explanation. We have lost much much more thro' unprecedented corruption & robbery than what we gained thro' GSP+ etc. The latest strategy is to scare people with the chorus "sanctions are coming", but in reality people fear UNP more than sanctions.

By Nishel Fernando Sri Lanka’s tourism industry stakeholders yesterday expressed concerns over the possibility of prospective tourists who would have visited Sri Lanka turning to other alternative destinations due to the prolonged political crisis, as tourist bookings for the crucial winter season are already showing a slowdown.

Speaking to Mirror Business, key tourism industry stakeholders said that the current political crisis, which was triggered on October 26 with the ousting of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has led to a slowdown in future tourist bookings, particularly with the issuance of soft travel advisories by several countries such as the Unites States, United Kingdom and Australia.

However, despite these developments only a few cancellations of tourist bookings have been recorded to-date, while most of the cancellations have been from India—particularly South Indian tourists.

Jetwing Hotels and Jetwing Travels Chairperson Shiromal Cooray said there might have been as much as 20 percent slowdown in tourist booking for Jetwing for the crucial winter period.

“More than the cancellations, what is worrying us are the future bookings, which have been rather slow. This is the crucial period where most tourists from Europe and North America complete their bookings for the upcoming winter period beyond December,” she said.

Her observations were echoed by The Hotels Association of Sri Lanka (THASL) President Sanath Ukwatte and the Sri Lanka Association of Inbound Tour Operators (SLAITO) Vice-President Nalin Jayasundera.

“In general, there has been a slowdown in future bookings. We cannot estimate by how much at the moment. The travel advisories and what’s happening in Parliament will have a negative impact, there’s no doubt about that. We are very hopeful that this issue will be resolved in the most democratic way as soon as possible, at the earliest,” Ukwatte said.

Jayasundera warned that if the current situation persists, there is a possibility of potential tourists who would have visited Sri Lanka, choosing alternative destinations.

December is considered to be the peak for Sri Lanka’s tourism. Sri Lanka attracted over 244,000 tourists last December while from December to March on average Sri Lanka receives above 230,000 tourists per month. Quoting Tamil Nadu Tour Travel and Hospitality Association, The Times of India recently reported that one-third of the travellers or 2,000 out of 6, 000 tourists from Tamil Nadu had cancelled their October trips to Sri Lanka. Moreover, the media outlet reported that prospective Tamil Nadu tourists, largely travelling in groups to Sri Lanka are exploring other alternative destinations.

“Indians are more concerned, specially the South Indians. Even Europeans have been inquiring a lot. There’s a general concern,” Cooray stressed.

Tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka last month increased only by a marginal 0.5 percent year-on-year (YoY) to 153, 123 with arrivals from several key regions declining, recording the slowest growth rate for the year, despite Sri Lanka being ranked as the top country to visit in 2019 by Lonely Planet.

Cooray and Jayasundera also expressed concerns on the implementations of the tourism promotion campaigns, as the country doesn’t have a functioning tourism minister.

“Our concern is about the current instability becoming an obstacle to go ahead with planned promotional activities, which will have a further impact towards future bookings. Everything has come to a standstill. There is no tourism minister functioning at the moment,” Jayasundera said.

Sri Lanka earlier this month launched the new tourism brand identity ‘So Sri Lanka’ at the World Travel Mart (WTM) in London.

However, Jayasundera stressed that an advanced marketing campaign must be in place to convey the “out-of-the-box” new tourism brand identity.

He also pointed out that Sri Lanka is missing out an opportunity to capitalise its ranking by the Lonely Planet to attract more tourists to the island nation.

“We have been nominated as the best destination to visit by Lonely Planet, which is a major endorsement. We could have capitalised a lot on that, if things were stable in the country,” he said.

The earlier administration of Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) planned a US$ 350,000 advertising campaign on affiliated media of Lonely Planet, to capitalise Sri Lanka’s ranking.However, Ukwatte was hopeful that all planned tourism promotional campaigns would be implemented on time despite the status of the tourism ministry.

“We have planned to commence the global promotional campaign in three months time. So it’s very much on target. The tourism industry is a private sector-driven industry; we don’t rely too much on the government. The SLTPB is functioning. Most of the promotional campaigns have been planned ahead,” he said.

Sri Lanka attracted little over 1.88 million tourists for the first 10 months of this year, up 10.6 percent year-on-year (YoY). Although tourism authorities were originally targeting to attract 3 million tourists this year, it is likely that Sri Lanka would end 2018 short of 2.5 million tourists.

Tourist arrivals in 2017 hit an all-time high of 2.11 million, which represented a 3.2 percent growth YoY. Tourism revenues rose by a similar percentage to an all-time peak of US$3.63 billion.

According to the provisional data released by the Central Bank, earnings from tourism during the first eight months of 2018 rose 12.5 percent YoY to US $ 2.93 billion.