Age, Sex Predict Neoplasia Risk in CT Colonography Screening

Monday, June 10, 2013 (Last Updated: 06/11/2013)

MONDAY, June 10 (HealthDay News) -- For individuals undergoing screening computed tomographic colonography (CTC), age and sex, but not body mass index (BMI) or family history, are independent predictors of advanced neoplasia risk, according to a study published online June 10 in Cancer.

To examine predictors of advanced neoplasia in screening CTC, Cesare Hassan, M.D., from the Nuovo Regina Margherita Hospital in Rome, and colleagues analyzed data from 7,620 consecutive patients who were referred for first-time screening CTC from 2004 to 2011. Pathology results were recorded for all patients who underwent polypectomy.

The researchers found that 3.6 percent of the patients were ultimately diagnosed with advanced neoplasia. Age (mean odds ratio [OR] per 10-year increase, 1.8) and being a man (OR, 1.7) were independent predictors of advanced neoplasia, on multivariate analysis. BMI and a positive family history of colorectal cancer were not predictors of advanced neoplasia. To detect one case of advanced neoplasia, the number needed to screen varied from 51 among women aged ≤55 years to 10 among men aged >65 years. To detect one case of advanced neoplasia, the number of post-CTC colonoscopies needed varied from two to four.

"In conclusion, age and sex appear to be useful variables for predicting the risk of advanced neoplasia at screening CTC, whereas BMI and a positive family history of colorectal cancer do not appear to have a major impact," the authors write. "These findings could be useful in stratifying patients who undergo CTC screening."