( there just isn't any good news for wynne , huge % say she needs to go and should resign , what I find so shocking is the level of caucus discipline , not 1 mpp has come out and said she needs to go , but clearly the public thinks otherwise )

A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll paints a grim electoral picture for the Liberals in 2018, with 58% of Ontarians insisting the premier should resign. Of Toronto respondents alone, 67% want her out and 62% in the GTA have had enough of her.

“With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown-led PCs and the Andrea Horwath-led NDP,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.

“Wynne’s approvals continue to drive down those numbers as her approval is now just 15% compared to 67% who disapprove, including 30% who strongly disapprove.”

The latest Liberal scandal, however, may be the last straw the public can handle, according to the poll.

The OPP laid bribery charges, alleging two Liberal insiders, including the former deputy chief of staff to Wynne, offered a job or appointment to a former Liberal candidate in Sudbury in exchange for him stepping aside. Wynne has maintained there was no bribe and that she wasn’t involved.

None of the allegations have been tested in court.

Still, the poll found that 53% believe she may have been involved in the case.

“The really, really bad news for Ontario Liberals is that 59% of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against the Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives, including 42% either very or somewhat closely,” said Maggi. “Almost six in 10 people — 58% — said the premier should resign compared to less than two in 10 — or 17% — who said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the premier should resign or not.”

On the flipside, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is leading approval ratings at 59%, including 26% strongly, and just 30% disapproval — with 17% strongly disapproving. Ontario PC leader Patrick Brown continues to make gains in approval at 51%, including 23% strongly approving. His disapproval matches Horwath at 30%, but just 9% strongly disapprove of him.

“The lead in Eastern Canada of 20 points over the Liberals (48% to 28%) could point to closer-than-expected results in Ottawa-Vanier where star candidate Andre Marin is running for the Brown-led PCs,” said Maggi.

The poll of 2,524 respondents was conducted Nov. 2 and has a 1.95% margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

Only a quarter of decided voters would vote for the Ontario Liberals if a provincial election were held today, according to a new poll released on Monday.

A survey conducted by Mainstreet/Postmedia shows only 25 per cent of decided voters would vote for Kathleen Wynne‘s Liberals while 43 per cent would choose the Patrick Brown led Progressive Conservatives and 27 per cent for the Ontario NDP.

Wynne’s approval rating is the lowest among all the provincial leaders at just 15 per cent, far behind NDP Leader Andrea Horwarth at 59 per cent and Brown with 51 per cent.

“There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the effects of the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives continue to dominate headlines,” President of Mainstreet Research Quito Maggi said.

The poll reveals 59 per cent of Ontario voters are following the recent charges against former Wynne senior staffer Pat Sorbara and operative Gerry Lougheed, including 42 per cent either very or somewhat closely.

Sorbara, Wynne’s former deputy chief of staff, was charged last week with two bribery counts under the provincial Election Act, while Liberal Lougheed faces one count.

The charges stem from allegations that both individuals offered a federal MP – who is now Ontario’s energy minister – an incentive to run for the provincial Liberals in the Sudbury byelection.

When asked if they believe the Premier was involved in the case, 53 per cent of those polled believe Wynne may have, although just 2 per cent believe she was very involved and 11 per cent somewhat.

“Almost 6 in 10 people (58%) said the Premier should resign compared to less than 2 in 10 (17%) who said she should not. A quarter of Ontarians were not sure whether the Premier should resign or not,” Maggi said.

The only good news for Wynne is that her party continues to lead in the coveted 416 region with 35 per cent support compared to the PCs 31 per cent and NDP’s 27 per cent among decided and leaning voters.

“The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario,” Maggi said.

The Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,524 Ontario residents on Nov. 2, 2016 with a margin of error of +/- 1.95 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Support for Ontario’s premier appears to have taken a dive, according to a new poll released this week.

The new Mainstreet/ Postmedia poll, which surveyed 2,524 Ontario residents, found that 58 per cent of voters believe Premier Kathleen Wynne should resign.

“With the next Ontario election just a little more than 18 months away, Kathleen Wynne and the Ontario Liberals continue to plumb new depths as they now trail both the Patrick Brown led PCs and the Andrea Horwath led NDP,” Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, said in a written statement accompanying the poll.

Maggi added that Wynne’s approval rating is now just 15 per cent.

“There is very little good news for the current government and it may get worse as the effects of the recent charges against Ontario Liberal Party staff and operatives continue to dominate headlines,” he said.

The poll found that 53 per cent of respondents said they believe Wynne may have been involved in the bribery scandal.

“The really bad news is, there are two current by-elections underway that may also be affected by the latest scandal. Niagara West Glanbrook was vacated by former PC leader Tim Hudak and is likely to be held by the PCs with the likeliest competition coming from the NDP who hold nearby Niagara Falls. In Ottawa-Vanier, a close contest in a Liberal fortress riding could point to the beginning of the end for the 13-year incumbent Ontario Liberal Government. A loss in Ottawa-Vanier would be unthinkable, and could prompt an early exit by the embattled Premier," Maggi said.

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath continues to enjoy the strongest support among party leaders with a 59 per cent approval rating. Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown is not far behind Horwath with an approval of 51 per cent.

“As Kathleen Wynne's fortunes fall, left and centre left voters across Ontario are turning to Horwath. Her high approvals have now started to register on the voter intentions as the NDP now has the support of 27 (per cent) among decided and leaning voters across Ontario compared to 25 (per cent) for the Wynne led Liberals,” Maggi said.

Ontario PCs still lead in Ontario with 43 per cent support among decided and leaning voters.

One positive for the Liberals, Maggi adds, is that the party continues to lead in downtown Toronto when it comes to decided and leaning voters. According to the poll, 35 per cent of those in the 416 support the Liberals, 31 per cent support the PCs and 27 per cent support the NDP.

“The rest of the numbers point to a possible wipeout in the 905, South Central and Southwest with divided fortunes in Eastern and Northern Ontario," Maggi noted.

The poll, which was conducted on Nov. 2, 2016, is considered accurate plus or minus 1.95 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

that is a big unknown , first she'd have to step down herself , don't see there being any mechanism to force her out before the next election , unlikely the party would vote on her leadership before 2018 .

the most likely candidates would be current mpp's and cabinet ministers , as well is maybe some former mpp's who had left politics .

there is many liberal mp's from Ontario but its less likely any would want to leave Ottawa to try and sort out this mess at queen's park , it wouldn't be as much fun as being part of trudeau's government in Ottawa and might have to commit to spending several years in opposition before there would be another election ( if they lose to brown in 2018 )

they might also decide to look for an outsider , someone not currently involved with provincial liberals ( not tainted with scandals and such ) ? might be some options out there

but wynne would still have to quit herself and that still seems unlikely , she has said many times she was going to run in 2018 , an unlikely loss in Ottawa vanier might be enough to force her out but she already lost scarborough rouge river and next day came out saying she was staying

the big question is how motivated to vote are the liberals in Ottawa Vanier , there is more liberals than conservatives in that riding but how many care to show up and vote in this by-election to save wynne ? its really tough to figure out , if I were Andre Marin the pc candidate I'd be telling liberals to vote for him so they can dump wynne , that be his best sales pitch in the riding

I couldn't see a situation where Wynne stepped down before the next election;
The simple optics of three Premiers from one party within four years is horrific.

However if the OLP loses Ottawa—Vanier (Which I still consider highly unlikely) they have to at least begin the discussion internally about considering a new leader prior to the election.

It will take four months to run a speedy leadership convention (much like 2013) when you consider the passage of Bill 45 which moved the fixed election date to June 7th 2018 you would have basically a year of governing from the new leader if you replaced the Premier roughly six months after the by-election.

I couldn't see a situation where Wynne stepped down before the next election;
The simple optics of three Premiers from one party within four years is horrific.

However if the OLP loses Ottawa—Vanier (Which I still consider highly unlikely) they have to at least begin the discussion internally about considering a new leader prior to the election.

It will take four months to run a speedy leadership convention (much like 2013) when you consider the passage of Bill 45 which moved the fixed election date to June 7th 2018 you would have basically a year of governing from the new leader if you replaced the Premier roughly six months after the by-election.

I wish there was some polling for Ottawa Vanier , I saw online today the liberal candidate is skipping the health care debate just like the one in scarborough did , do liberals never learn ?

Ottawa Vanier is still such a liberal riding and ndp provincially in Ottawa have never been much of a force , it still seems like an uphill climb for Andre Marin although if there was ever a time for it to abandon the liberals it would be now , only 25 % province wide and way behind in eastern Ontario

if they did have a leadership race the time frame would have to be very rushed , I'm also not sure there would be many candidates , although the winner would get to be premier for at least a little bit which might be enough of a reason for some to sign up

there is an article in todays Toronto sun and it says according to insiders Ottawa centre mpp Yasir Naqvi is favoured . somewhat of an odd choice as he isn't a household name although a cabinet minister and comes from Ottawa far away from the seat rich 905/Toronto area the liberals need desperately to hold , he also isn't a fresh face as he's been deeply involved with government for a number of years

the liberals have won Ottawa Vanier perhaps there safest seat in the entire province , this victory will be no doubt used by Wynne as a reason for her to stick around . but it would of voted liberal no matter who the leader was

personally I have a much different opinion and don't see a way forward for her at this point , her personal approval numbers are far too low and liberal support only around 25% province wide , and the weak liberal results in ridings around Toronto like Whitby Oshawa and Niagara West Glanbrook point to trouble for the liberals in suburbia

think voters at this point have given her a chance and she got to be premier for a few years but they can't really see a reason for why she should continue beyond 2018 . there simply in no agenda and liberals have been in power since 2003 which is a very long time in Ontario politics for one party to be in power , its not uncommon for governments here to last 2 terms max and then someone else takes over , to last that long is hard to do

I can't believe the level of caucus discipline and shocked by the fact not a single liberal mpp has come out publically saying she should go .

( wynne insists she is staying on despite the dismal polling numbers , at some point her own caucus must be starting to wonder where one earth she is leading them , possibly over a cliff to nowhere ? )

Kathleen Wynne insists she’ll lead party into next election

The day after the Liberals held Ottawa-Vanier in a key byelection, Premier Kathleen Wynne said she will be leading her party into the next provincial election.

Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne said she's looking forward to leading the Liberals into the next election. (Jackie Hong / Toronto Star file photo)

OTTAWA—Premier Kathleen Wynne says reports of her political demise have been greatly exaggerated.

The day after the Liberals held Ottawa-Vanier in a key byelection, an ebullient Wynne said she will be leading her party into the next provincial election, despite rumblings to the contrary about what a loss would have meant.

“It’s such an interesting line of questioning, because I wasn’t going anywhere,” the premier said Friday as Liberals gathered here for their annual general meeting.

“The fact is that I’m committed to run in 2018. I made that commitment in 2014. We’re implementing our plan, and we’re going to stay on track.”

Her comments came in the wake of the decisive victory by University of Ottawa law school dean Nathalie Des Rosiers over Progressive Conservative André Marin on Thursday in the Liberal stronghold of Ottawa-Vanier.

The Liberals held the seat, which had been represented by retired attorney general Madeleine Meilleur, with 48.6 per cent of the vote to 29.9 per cent for the Conservatives and 15 per cent for New Democrat Claude Bisson.

While the Tories easily won the other byelection — 19-year-old Sam Oosterhoff crushed the NDP’s Mike Thomas and Liberal Vicky Ringuette in the longtime PC riding of Niagara West-Glanbrook — they had hoped to elect Marin by cashing in on Wynne’s current unpopularity over rising electricity prices and scandals.

The outspoken former Ontario ombudsman was a star candidate for Tory leader Patrick Brown, who is struggling to move his party to the political centre by distancing himself from social conservatives.

A disappointed Marin told reporters Thursday night he hoped Brown can “keep the so-cons in their place.”

“It’s a threat to the party. If they start calling some of the shots, I think you’ll see a very fast erosion in the popularity of the Progressive Conservative party,” he said.

Indeed, the Liberals predicted the election of Oosterhoff, a home-schooled social conservative opposed to abortion and highly critical of Wynne’s updated sex education curriculum, would underscore divisions within the Progressive Conservative party.

Mindful of that, Brown was quick to step in Thursday night when journalists asked the teen how he planned to vote on Bill 28, legislation that will make it easier for gay and lesbian parents to have children.

“He’s been an MPP for all of 10 minutes . . . our caucus is supporting it,” the leader interjected, before Oosterhoff, successor to retired former PC leader Tim Hudak in the wine-country riding, could respond.

The young politico has said he hopes Brown allows more free votes so MPPs can follow their conscience.

When pressed on Bill 28, Oosterhoff, who is taking a hiatus from his first year at Brock University, was evasive.

“I have yet to examine the legislation. I said during the campaign that I’d be focused on a very consultative form of representation, that I’m excited to listen to my constituents and knock on their doors and hear what they say on this,” he said.

Oosterhoff, just 16 at the time of the June 2014 provincial election, defended his lack of life experience.

“I worked in demolition and excavating, and I worked for a year on Parliament Hill as a policy analyst and legislative assistant,” he said.

“A lot of people are excited to see the unlimited energy that I bring to the table. ‎People are excited to have a voice of change, and people are excited to have someone who’s going to be working tirelessly for them.”

His hard work garnered him 54 per cent of the vote to 24.9 per cent for the NDP and 15.3 per cent for the Liberals.

For Tories, the silver lining in losing Ottawa-Vanier is that Wynne will stay to fight the June 2018 election despite her standing in the polls.

“I’m almost glad they kept it. Kathleen Wynne is our biggest asset right now. We don’t want her to step down,” one Queen’s Park Tory confided, echoing comments from another party operative who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

“We don’t want them to get a fresh face in there, because, when that happens, people tend to forget.

“Look what happened after Wynne took over from (former premier Dalton) McGuinty.”

OTTAWA — Premier Kathleen Wynne is calling high electricity prices her “mistake,” sounding a note of contrition on one of the major issues threatening the Liberals’ re-election bid in 2018.

Amid the usual rallying of the troops at the Ontario Liberals’ annual general meeting Saturday, Wynne addressed her poor popularity numbers, which she called the “elephant in the room.”

“I think that people look at me and many of them think, ’She’s not who we thought she was. She’s become a typical politician. She’ll do anything to win,”’ Wynne said.

“Frankly, I may have and I think I sometimes have given them reason to think that.”

Wynne said part of convincing Ontarians that she wants to do what is in their best interests is admitting when she has made a mistake.

“People have told me that they’ve had to choose between paying the electricity bill and buying food or paying rent,” Wynne said.

“That is unacceptable to me. It is unacceptable that people in Ontario are facing that choice. Our government made a mistake. It was my mistake.”

An 8% rebate on electricity bills comes into effect Jan. 1, but Wynne said she will find more ways to lower rates and reduce the burden on consumers.

After her speech, Wynne wouldn’t point to any specific decision on the electricity file that she deems a mistake, but said her focus was on the big issues facing the system and she hasn’t always paid enough attention to how costs were accumulating on people’s bills.

Auditor general Bonnie Lysyk has said the electricity portion of hydro bills for homes and small businesses rose 70% between 2006 and 2014.

The Progressive Conservatives say electricity rates were driven up much higher than necessary by the Liberals’ overly-generous, long-term contracts for wind and solar power.

The Liberals say rates increased because Ontario stopped burning coal to generate electricity and invested heavily in transmission grid upgrades after years of neglect.

Wynne said in her speech she wasn’t going to talk about the June 2018 election — though she did promise to visit every single riding between now and then.

But the vote that’s about 18 months away was top of mind at the convention, which kicked off with a session — closed to media — from campaign chair David Herle titled “The Path to 2018.”

There was a palpable sense of relief from Liberals that they hung onto their Ottawa-Vanier seat in Thursday’s byelection. The Progressive Conservatives won the other byelection as expected in Niagara West-Glanbrook, but if the Liberals had lost the Ottawa stronghold it could have spelled trouble for their general election prospects.

On electricity bills, Wynne is taking a lesson learned from the Democrats in the U.S. election, saying she takes responsibility as leader “for not paying close enough attention to some of the daily stresses in Ontarians’ lives.”

“The conversation since the American election has very much been about people being left behind, and so when I talk about that, yeah, I’m making a connection there,” she explained after her speech.

“It’s not exactly the same from my perspective because we’ve been working for many years to build an inclusive economy, to make sure people aren’t left behind. But I think that what happened in the United States is a reminder that that is at the core of what government has to do — make sure people aren’t left behind.”

I can't believe it hasn't even been 4 years since she was elected. Seems like forever ago.

that's partly why I just can't see her having a future in Ontario politics , the whole time she has been premier , has been one scandal after another , and mostly has been plunging polling numbers , with the exception being the 2014 election when liberal support suddenly surged after Hudak ran a horrible campaign combined with angering all the unions when he said he was going to cut union jobs .

pretty much since 2014 support for the liberals has gone down and her personal approval ratings have plunged off a cliff , I just can't see her having a future at queen's park , she beat hudak in 2014 cause he ran a horrible campaign but any liberal leader could of won that election

( what gets me is how solid the liberal vote is in their core ridings , I'd describe Sudbury and Ottawa Vanier core liberal ridings , and even after all the scandals and everything else that has gone on there voters still showed up at the polls in those 2 ridings , the Sudbury by election scandal was public knowledge at the time of the by election and yet they still won, its like there voters think even a corrupt and scandal plagued liberal government would still be better than an ndp or pc mpp )

Thibeault 'sought certain benefits' to run in Sudbury byelection: Crown

A former MP, who is now Ontario’s energy minister, allegedly “sought certain benefits” to run in a provincial byelection, a Crown lawyer prosecuting two Ontario Liberals on Election Act bribery charges said Monday.

But while the two Liberals, including Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne’s former deputy chief of staff, face bribery counts under the act, Energy Minister Glenn Thibeault does not.

“The section makes it an offence to offer, not necessarily to receive (a bribe),” said federal prosecutor Vern Brewer.

Thibeault’s lawyer said the Crown was sullying Thibeault’s reputation and said the prosecutor’s comments were wrong.

The charges against the two provincial Liberals — Pat Sorbara and Liberal operative Gerry Lougheed — stem from allegations the pair offered a would-be candidate a job or appointment to get him to step aside in a 2015 byelection in Sudbury, Ont., for the premier’s preferred candidate.

That preferred candidate was Thibeault, who was then a New Democrat MP for Sudbury, and he ultimately won that byelection for the provincial Liberals.

One of the charges against Sorbara is over an allegation she promised to get Thibeault “an office or employment” to induce him to become a candidate.

After Sorbara and Lougheed’s first court appearance Monday, Brewer expanded on the allegation as it relates to Thibeault.

“The allegation in respect to that count relates to our allegation that Mr. Thibeault sought certain benefits, offers or job or employment as part of his conditions to run as (an) MPP,” he said.

“The prosecutor chose to make his remarks outside of court to reporters instead of respecting the sub judice rule, which recognizes the impropriety of out-of-court comment on a prosecution which is before the courts,” Ian Smith wrote in a statement.

“The Crown has chosen to sully Mr. Thibeault’s reputation without ever naming him as the target of its investigations, without ever charging him, and, most importantly, knowing that he will have no trial where he could mount a proper defence.”

Thibeault will “consider all of his legal options” over the remarks that are “disgraceful and ill-considered” and will likely cause him “serious reputational damage,” Smith wrote.

Ontario’s opposition parties called for Thibeault to step aside after it was revealed that one of Sorbara’s charges related to an offer allegedly made to him. Thibeault has refused, since he isn’t under investigation and faces no charges.

Thibeault has said the premier did not offer him a cabinet position in exchange for running, nor did Sorbara make him any offers. A spokesman said Monday that Thibeault had nothing to add to his previous statements.

Sorbara has said she believes the charges against her will not succeed and she is “shocked” by any suggestion she has done something wrong. Sorbara recently took a leave of absence from her job as Wynne’s deputy chief of staff to become the Ontario Liberals’ CEO and 2018 campaign director, posts she resigned from when the charges were laid.

Lawyers for Sorbara and Lougheed appeared on their behalf in Sudbury on Monday for their first court appearance and the case was adjourned to Dec. 14.

Ontario has given carriage of the case to the federal prosecution service.

Brewer, of the Public Prosecution Service of Canada, said outside court that he and the defence lawyers made an application to have the matter heard by a judge instead of a justice of the peace.

“It’s the first prosecution we’re aware of under this section and there are significant and complex legal issues,” he said.

Lougheed’s charge and a second charge against Sorbara are over an allegation they offered Andrew Olivier, a previous Sudbury provincial Liberal candidate who intended to run for the party again in the byelection, a job or appointment to get him to step aside for Thibeault.

Wynne has said that discussions with Olivier were about trying to keep him in the party fold, and that there was no quid pro quo because she had already decided to appoint Thibeault as the candidate before she, Sorbara and Lougheed spoke with Olivier.

Lougheed had also been charged criminally in the Sudbury byelection investigation, with one count of counselling an offence not committed and one count of unlawfully influencing or negotiating appointments, but those charges were stayed earlier this year.

Lougheed’s lawyer, Michael Lacy, said his client has maintained “he didn’t do anything that would attract a culpable finding.”

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