OTTAWA - Canada's recreational firearms lobby is telling the Harper government to avoid signing a landmark United Nations arms trade treaty, arguing it could lead to an insidious return of the federal long-gun registry.

That's the message Canada's National Firearms Association and the Canadian Shooting Sports Association are delivering to Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird as he weighs whether Canada should follow the United States in signing the Arms Trade Treaty, which aims to regulate the multibillion-dollar global arms trade.

Proponents of the treaty, including Secretary of State John Kerry, who signed it last week on behalf of the U.S., say it would have no impact on domestic gun owners.

Not so, says Canada's sports shooting lobby, which has been consulting with the government.

"We think that it has the potential to raise prices on firearms, firearms accessories, parts and ammunition," Sheldon Clare, president of the National Firearms Association, said in an interview.

"We rely heavily on imports."

Clare said he doesn't think Canada will follow the U.S. and sign the treaty, suggesting that the Conservatives realize such a move could impact their ballot-box fortunes in 2015.

"I think they also recognize there would be some significant ramifications in their voting base were they to approve this."

The Harper government came to power in 2006 in part on a promise to scrap the long-gun registry, which was reviled by recreational shooting enthusiasts and rural gun owners. The registry was voted out existence in February 2012.

During that time, recreational firearms users have had greater access to weapons and accessories than in the previous years.

An analysis of Industry Canada data by The Canadian Press shows that imports of revolvers, pistols, rifles, shotguns, accessories and ammunition into Canada totalled $2.84 million between 2006 and 2012.

That's almost double the nearly $1.56 million in similar imports to Canada during the previous seven years when the Liberal government was in power, from 1999 to 2005.

Total imports reached an all-time high at just over $507,000 in 2011 but then fell to $445,000 in 2012.

Tony Bernardo, head of the Canadian Shooting Sports Association, said he's been working hard to oppose UN gun control efforts since the mid 1990s.

He said the treaty could impose a burdensome bureaucracy on Canada not unlike the now-defunct gun registry.

"I think there's lots of potential links to the gun registry," said Bernardo.

"The problems we've had with the gun registry — unaccountability, the incredible cost, complete ineffective uselessness — those things are not only a potential scenario, they're a likelihood" if Canada were to sign the treaty.

The groups say that if the federal government signs the treaty it will have to create a new bureaucracy of regulations, one that could potentially be less strict than the current rules that govern the arms imports and exports.

Bernardo said he didn't think Baird was likely to follow the U.S. lead on the treaty any time soon.

"Minister Baird has been very thoughtful and intelligent on the Arms Trade Treaty right from Day 1," said Bernardo.

"At the beginning of the process he asked the United Nations to remove civilian firearms from scope of the treaty. He's seen the writing on the wall. He's not a dumb man."

Baird has said there is a potential link between signing on to the treaty and Canada's now-abolished long gun registry. Baird's spokesman said the government will take its time, and do its "homework" to ensure that the interests of Canadians are protected before deciding whether to sign on to the treaty.

"If properly done, an Arms Trade Treaty can help limit the worldwide trade in illicit arms," said spokesman Rick Roth in an email.

"At the same time, it is important that such a treaty not affect lawful and responsible firearms owners nor discourage the transfer of firearms for recreational uses such as sport shooting and hunting."

Baird's office wouldn't release the names of the individuals it is consulting.

According to an internal memo obtained by The Canadian Press, Clare and Bernardo are among 14 stakeholders that Foreign Affairs has consulted on the issue.

Four of those consulted are from the groups Oxfam, Project Ploughshares and Amnesty International, and have publicly urged Canada to follow the U.S. and more than 90 other countries and sign the treaty. They argue the pact would lead to a decline in violence against innocent civilians, including crimes against humanity.

But at least seven more on the list are from arms and ammunition suppliers, manufacturers, or the defence industry.

NDP foreign affair critic Paul Dewar accused the government of giving special interest groups preferential treatment in their consultations.

"It's clear that the Conservatives are continuing to favour their friends in the gun lobby over good policy that will save lives," Dewar said.

Liberal foreign affairs critic Marc Garneau urged Baird to sign the treaty, noting he has "eloquently" deplored violent acts such as the recent attack on a Kenyan shopping mall by the Somali militant group al-Shabab.

"The arms they used were obtained through the murky underworld of arms dealers," said Garneau. "This is moment that Canada can show that it does care about the greater good of mankind."

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Gun Laws Around The World

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The U.S. Constitution's Second Amendment affords Americans the right to "bear Arms," but each state has its own regulations.
Photo credit: Whitney Curtis/Getty Images

Only licensed gun owners can buy and possess weapons in the UK. Hunting, target shooting or collecting are considered valid reasons to acquire a license, but self-defense is not. Civilians can't possess semi-automatic or automatic firearms, handguns or armor-piercing ammunition. Criminal offenders who have been in prison for more than three years are banned from having a gun.
Photo credit: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images

Australians can only possess a firearm with a license, and licenses are only granted for hunting, target shooting, historical collection, pest control, and occasionally for occupational reasons. Civilians can't keep semi-automatic rifles or shotguns, and gun ownership for self-defense is not permitted.
Photo credit: Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

Mexican law allows civilians to possess handguns and semi-automatic assault weapons, but only with a license. Valid reasons to request a license are hunting, target shooting, rodeo riding, collection, personal protection, or employment. Applicants must pass a background check and renew their licenses every two years.
Nearly 70 percent of weapons found at Mexican crime scenes can be traced back to the United States, according to CNN.
Photo credit: LUCAS CASTRO/AFP/Getty Images

Russians must prove that firearms will be used for hunting, target shooting, historic collection, personal protection or security in order to get a license.
License applicants must be 18 years old and pass a background check. Licenses need to be renewed every five years.
Photo credit: DMITRY ASTAKHOV/AFP/Getty Images

Chinese citizens are not allowed to posses firearms. Exceptionally, the government issues permission to own a firearm for hunting, sports shooting and animal control. Penalties for illegal selling of weapons ranges from three years in jail to the death penalty.
Caption: Police display guns they seized from illegal traders at Chengdu Municipal Public Security Bureau on January 26, 2005 in Chengdu of Sichuan Province, China. (China Photos/Getty Images)

Canadians can possess handguns, but need authorization to carry them. Possession of automatic weapons is prohibited (except when the weapon was bought before 1978) and semi-automatic weapons are tolerated in exceptional cases. Applicants for a license must pass background test, must follow a safety course and be certified by a firearms officer. Licenses are up for renewal every 5 years.
Caption: Rifles are lined up as athletes prepare to compete in the women's Biathlon 4x6 km relay at the Whistler Olympic Park during the Vancouver Winter Olympics on February 23, 2010. (FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images)

Brazil has strict gun laws. Gun holders need to be 25, have no criminal record and attend safety courses. Licences are granted for reasons of hunting, target shooting, personal protection and security and must be renewed every three years.
Caption: A policeman holds a seized machine gun at Morro do Alemao shanty town on November 28, 2010 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (JEFFERSON BERNARDES/AFP/Getty Images)

As the Atlantic notes, few Japanese own a gun. Civilians in Japan are only allowed to have a firearm for hunting and with special permission for target shooting. License applicants need to pass a shooting range class and a background check. Licences have to be renewed every three years.
Caption: A soldier of Ground Self Defense Forces' Central Readiness Force (CRF) walks past rifles prior to the inauguration ceremony of the CRF at Asaka camp in northern Tokyo, 31 March 2007. (TOSHIFUMI KITAMURA/AFP/Getty Images)

German civilians need to have a license to buy and hold firearms. Applicants need to be 21, pass a background check that assesses reliability and suitability and applicants under the age of 25 need to pass a psychological exam. Licenses are up for renewal every three years.
Caption: A gun lies outside a branch of Postbank bank after an attempted robbery that left one guard dead October 29, 2007 in Berlin, Germany. (Sean Gallup/Getty Images)