000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200355
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 20 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gale Warning: A weakening cold front from 30N129W to 20N140W is
preceded by strong southerly flow north of 26N within 180 nm E
of the front, with seas to 12 ft. A deepening surface low pres
system NW of the area near 33N143W will drop SE tonight behind
the cold front, dragging a second cold front into the discussion
area accompanied by near gale force westerly winds. The pressure
gradient will tighten around the southern semicircle of the low,
with winds increasing to minimal gale force near 0900 UTC Tue
morning, with associated seas of 15 to 17 ft. The low pres will
lift north of the area Tue afternoon with winds diminishing to
20-30 kt, and 20 kt or less by early Wed. Large NW swell will
propagate southeastward through Sat. Please refer to the Pacific
high seas forecast for more details on this upcoming event under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near-gale north flow
will surge into the gulf early Wed morning, then increase to
minimal gale force Wed night. Gale conditions are then expected
to continue through Fri morning, with seas building to a maximum
of around 12 ft.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N85W to 05N92W to 05N103W. The
ITCZ axis continues from 05N103W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted within 30 nm either side of
the ITCZ axis between 115W and 125W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Surface high pressure W of the northern Baja Peninsula extends a
ridge axis S to near 19N. The ridge will shift southeast through
Tue night, supporting fresh to locally strong northerly winds on
Jalisco, Mexico offshore waters between 105W and 107W. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds in the Baja offshore waters will become
light to gentle Tue night as the ridge weakens.
Gulf of California: Fresh to locally strong northwest flow is
forecast across the southern half of the gulf waters through
Tuesday evening accompanied by seas to 7 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong northeast winds will develop
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo Tue night with seas building
to 7 ft. Stronger winds are expected Wed night through Sat night
with seas building to 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
expected downstream of the Gulf of Panama Wed night through Sat
night. Light to gentle offshore flow will prevail elsewhere.
Gulf of Panama: Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected
downstream of the Gulf of Panama Wed night through Sat night.
Light to gentle offshore flow is expected elsewhere through the
weekend.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see see Special Features Section above for details on
gale force winds expected to affect the NW portion of the area.
A progressive pattern will continue to impact the the northwest
portion of the area well into the weekend. A deep layer low pres
system located NW of the area is preceded by deep mid to upper
level moisture. Clouds and precipitation associated the the low
pres system will advance eastward towards southern California
and the northern and central Baja California through Wed.
$$
Mundell