Thursday 10th July: Daily technical outlook and review.

[jamiesocial]

For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

Buyers and sellers still remain trading within weekly demand at 1.34760-1.36314

It was reported in the last analysis that a decision needed to be made, that decision was to either break the low 1.35746, or break the decision point level above at 1.36076. A break of the latter was seen, clearly there was too much demand around the 1.35870 area. Price action is currently seen retesting the decision point level (1.36076) which is, at the time of writing proving relatively successful with buyers beginning to show interest forming a pin-bar shape pattern.

If the buyers do indeed confirm the new support level (1.36076) there is very little from stopping them pushing price up to the decision point level seen at 1.36632-1.36485.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.35018-1.35375) at 1.35417. The reason behind us placing a P.A confirmation buy order here, rather than a pending buy order is because the aforementioned demand area appears weak as deep spikes have been seen recently (marked with two arrows).

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (1.37224-1.37028) at 1.36894. A P.A.C order was selected here due to the reaction seen at the aforementioned supply area proving its validity. However, pro money may well decide to push price higher into this supply area if/when price returns to it, thus making it a risky trade for a stop above the high 1.36995 which could be very easily be stopped out if a pending sell order was set, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the decision point level (1.36076) at 1.36053 has now been cancelled. Price has rallied too far from the entry level.

Quick Recap:

It appears demand was too strong around the 1.35870 area with the buyers seen breaking above the decision point level (1.36076) and ultimately invalidating our P.A confirmation sell order that was set at 1.36053 as price has rallied too far past this level. We are currently seeing a retest of the aforementioned decision point level, if this area proves a valid support; we may very well see higher prices to the decision point level above at 1.36632-1.36485.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.35417 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

GBP/USD:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

Buyers are still seen deep within weekly supply territory at 1.76297-1.67702, with a little interest being shown by the sellers at the moment.

The daily timeframe still shows price is currently trading in no man’s land between daily supply above at 1.76297-1.73024 and daily S/R flip level seen below at 1.69712.

In the last analysis it was reported that for the buyers to reach the round number above at 1.72000, a minor supply area at around the 1.71371 area (circled) would need to be consumed.

Price has yet to see a positive break above this area at the time of writing, and is now seen dropping back towards the round number 1.71000. Take a quick look at the dashed line, notice the wicks? Supply seems to be well and truly consumed around this level, so if the buyers did want to hit the round number above, it would not take very much pressure due to this consumed zone.

So, where is price likely to visit next? The round number 1.71000 appears to be consumed already, ,meaning there are not likely very many buyers left there, so a deeper test may be in order down to the 4hr S/R flip area at 1.70617-1.70459 before a rally higher is seen.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.70617-1.70459) at 1.70662. A reaction north is likely to be seen here as there is no doubt unfilled buy orders left around this area when pro money made the ‘decision’ to push higher. However deep spikes can occur around flip areas (levels above) such as these, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 1.72000 at 1.71943. We have placed a P.A confirmation sell order here simply because these psychological levels are prone to deep tests/spikes, so sometimes it is better to wait for that all important confirmation.

Quick Recap:

The minor supply (trouble area) at 1.71371 (circled) proved to be strong, as the buyers were unable to push above this area, and is now currently seen heading back down to the round number 1.71000. The buyers appear to be consumed around the aforementioned round number level, so a deeper spike may be seen soon down to the 4hr S/R flip area at 1.70617-1.70459 before any higher prices happen while triggering our P.A confirmation buy order set at 1.70622 in the process.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.70662 (likely to be set at 1.70423 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.71943 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

The rally from the low 0.93208 may be short lived; sellers are beginning to show more interest at the moment forming a pin-bar shaped pattern.

4hr TF.

Look at price consolidating around the round number 0.94000, it is hard to imagine how many sellers and breakout buyers have been stopped out during this ranging price action!

A decision has yet to be made, however we can be pretty sure pro money are very busy at work. All of those wicks were to more than likely tempt traders on the lower timeframes to buy the retest of the round number 0.94000 which clearly resulted in them getting stopped out.

We have to remember it is quite a distance from the aforementioned round number level to either the 4hr decision point level above at 0.94408 or the 4hr demand area below at 0.93208-0.93417, and pro money will certainly require liquidity to move the market this far. We believe this is the reason for this ranging action i.e. to accumulate orders for their positions.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775. The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we were trading just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052. A pending sell order is placed here due to this being an area where pro money was interested in before; see how close price came to the supply area? (Levels above), this indicates possible strong supply (selling pressure), so the next time price visits we can expect some sort of reaction.

New pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the decision point level (0.94408) at 0.94382. The reason for setting a pending sell order here is simply because this was the area pro money decided to push price south to consume the round number 0.94000 and multiple lows in the process.

The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the round number 094000 at 0.93959 is now active. The sellers will need to confirm this level by consuming some of the buyers around the low 0.93406 (marked with a green flag) before a pending sell order is permitted to be set.

Quick Recap:

The rally seen on the daily timeframe is beginning to appear short lived with the sellers starting to show some interest forming a pin-bar shaped pattern. On the 4hr timeframe buyers and sellers are still battling it out around the round number 0.94000 with a decision to break yet to be seen. If a break above happens, we likely see a test of the decision point level at 0.94408 tested, and as a result our pending sell order being filled at 0.94382, conversely a break below could force price all the way back down to 4hr demand at 0.93208-0.93417. Our P.A confirmation still remains active at the moment with little development seen so far.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

USD/JPY:

The weekly timeframe shows price is trading around a long-term S/R flip level support at 102.206 with a positive close below yet to be seen.

Buyers and sellers on the daily timeframe are currently trading within a range with resistance being seen above at 102.713 and daily demand seen below at 100.747-100.967.

It was reported in the last analysis regarding the 4hr timeframe that price will still very likely visit the next decision point level at 101.400-101.465 after seeing the prior decision point level at 101.754 consumed.

Price did in fact hit our decision point level with a beautiful bullish reaction being seen, the first trouble are for the buyers is to likely be the old decision point level at 101.754 which is now resistance, so do watch this area closely!

If we see a positive break above the aforementioned resistance level, there is very little in the way of trouble supply areas to stop price from at least hitting the psychological number 102.000.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the decision-point level (101.400-101.465) at 101.483 is now active; do keep an eye on our first take-profit level round the 101.754 area.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.

New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (102-191-102.104) at 102.074. A P.A confirmation order was used here purely for the simple fact we are trading around a higher-timeframe weekly support level at 102.206 meaning we may see a small reaction, but nothing to write home about, hence the need for confirmation!

Quick Recap:

Our pending buy order set just above the 4hr decision point level (101.400-101.465) at 101.483 has been filled and is well on its way to reaching the first take-profit level around the (4hr resistance level) 101.754 area. If we see a positive break above the aforementioned resistance level, there is very little in the way of trouble supply areas to stop price at least hitting the psychological number 102.000 which is our second and final take-profit level.

EUR/GBP:

The buyers trading out of daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206 do not seem to be letting up at the moment, with the first trouble supply area for the buyers being seen above at 0.80328-0.80024.

4hr TF.

Technically not a lot has changed since the last analysis as price is still seen trading between the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79679 and 4hr demand below at 0.78862-0.79048.

Temporary 4hr resistance is seen between 0.79586-0.79534, and this is all, at the time of writing stopping price from hitting the 4hr S/R flip level at 0.79679. Considering we have just traded out of daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206, this aforementioned temporary resistance area is likely inclined to see a break north very soon. However before this happens be prepared for a retracement to at least down to a very minor demand area (circled) around 0.79388.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78862-0.79048) at 0.79076. A pending buy order is placed here due to the aforementioned 4hr demand area’s location in the higher timeframes (Within the compressed green arc from weekly demand: 0.76931-0.78623… Seen on Monday 7th July analysis), and daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the S/R flip level (0.79679) at 0.79641. Our rationale behind placing a pending sell order here is simply because this was a decision point area made at the aforementioned S/R flip level during NFP Thursday, meaning pro money were certainly active, and unfilled sell orders are more than likely still lurking there.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

With the daily timeframe showing strong buying out of daily demand at 0.78862-0.79206, higher prices are naturally expected. We are currently seeing temporary 4hr resistance around the 0.79586-0.79534 area, which is all seems to be stopping price from filling our pending sell order set just below the 4hr S/R flip level (0.79679) at 0.79641. However, do be aware price may retrace a little before breaking the aforementioned temporary resistance level to around the circled area at 0.79388.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79076 (SL: 0.78846 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.79641 (SL: 0.79747 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CAD:

Weekly TF.

The weekly timeframe is at last showing some buying interest within weekly demand at 1.05715-1.07008.

Daily TF.

Again, similar to the weekly chart above, the buyers are beginning to show interest trading out of daily demand at 1.05874-1.06680.

4hr TF.

It was reported in the last analysis that price will likely see a decline in value down towards the 4hr demand area at 1.06041-1.06312. No decline has really been seen as of yet, as price seems to be stalling around a minor S/R flip level seen at 1.06660.

We still firmly favour a retracement back to 4hr demand area below (levels above) as pro money requires liquidity to move prices higher. How do they do this? With orders and in this case sell orders. They need enough sell orders to cope with the huge amounts they trade to move the market. Do bear in mind this is just one scenario. Millions upon millions of traders saw this bullish momentum and no doubt jumped on the train, if pro money start selling into these buy orders pushing price south, these traders will be forced to cover their positions, thus giving pro money the opportunity to enter buy orders into the market in small batches, but as just said above, this is only one scenario, pro money no doubt have many tricks up their sleeves!

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06229. Price will likely see a retracement into this demand area, and a bullish reaction will likely follow, as we are currently in higher timeframe demand (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680).

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06462. Why did we place another buy pending order here? Take a look at current price action, notice a base has formed around the 1.06462 area, this could well be the place pro money drop price to before a bigger rally higher follows.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a small supply area (1.07508-1.07434) at 1.07386. A pending sell order has been set here since a bounce from this area will likely be seen if/when price reaches here, as the momentum from this area was quite strong, indicating unfilled sell orders may still be set there.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

With price being seen trading in serious higher-timeframe demand areas (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680), higher prices are naturally expected! Buyers have recently been active on the 4hr timeframe pushing price hard. A likely decline in value will be seen to around the 4hr demand area at 1.06041-1.06312 which will trigger should trigger one or both of the pending buy orders (1.06229/1.06462) in the process.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: 1.06229 SL: 1.05951 TP: Dependent on price approach) 1.06462 SL: 1.05951 TP: Dependent on price approach. P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.07386 (SL: 1.07541 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

The higher picture resembles the following:

The weekly timeframe is showing price consolidating just above weekly demand at 0.85664-0.88124

Daily supply at 0.90372-0.90042 has seen a lot of action over the past few weeks with no break north seen yet. Price is currently capped between the daily supply level just mentioned above and the daily S/R flip level below at 0.88608.

The 4hr timeframe shows the sellers were unable (at the time of writing) to close below the low 0.89245, by all means they did attempt to though, take a look at all those beautiful tails/spikes!

If we see a break of this low soon, it may very well clear the path for lower prices down to at least the round number 0.89000. However as a quick reminder we did actually see price spike above the high 0.89557 before which means some or even most of the sellers there are likely consumed, again clearing the path higher up until at least the round number 0.90000. The reason the path is likely clear north is because the majority of supply is likely consumed (notice the wicks within the green arc, these likely resemble possible supply consumption as price was dropping). As of now, we are left to watch price action unfold to give us an answer on possible direction.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the low 0.88546 at 0.88586. The reason that a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order was simply because there is no logical area for a stop loss, and the low (level above) will be likely prone to deep tests, or worse, a positive break below, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the high 0.89557 at 0.89514 is now active. To confirm this level the sellers must consume some of the buyers around the low marked with a horizontal level at 0.89245, this will allow a pending sell order to be set awaiting a possible retracement.

Quick Recap:

A positive break of the low 0.89245 has yet to be seen, so our P.A confirmation sell order above set at 0.89514 set just below the high (0.89557) remains the same. If we do see a positive break below the aforementioned low, we can likely expect price to drop down to at least the round number 0.89000 below, conversely, a positive break above the high 0.89557 will likely force price to rally up to at least the round number 0.90000.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88586 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are currently no pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C (Active-awaiting confirmation) 0.89514 (SL: likely to be set at 0.89624 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

Price is still seen trading in and around daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08. However something interesting has been spotted, take a quick look at the small dashed line, this likely resembles pro money activity in that they are thinking ahead of time here, the tails/spikes possible show pro money consuming minor pockets of demand which is likely clearing the path south for sellers, so is a drop lower still on the cards, or will price positively close above daily supply?

4hr TF.

Technically, not a lot has changed on this pair as no break of either 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 or 4hr supply above at 1342.30-1335.74.

If price positively closes below 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 we can be quite confident it was indeed a fakeout without the need for price to rally higher in the 4hr supply area (levels above). If, however price consumes the 4hr supply area above (1342.30-1335.74), we can be pretty sure it is a continuation move. Only time will tell, but we definitely favor a fakeout

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1304.77-1308.55) at 1309.75. We did not think a pending buy order was wise here due to the amount of spikes/tails seen already to this area, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1342.30-1335.74) at 1334.17. A pending sell order is set here because this is the likely area pro money will push prices to if indeed a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331.08) is happening, thus a pending sell order is valid.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Exactly the same as the last analysis!

The daily timeframe shows price is still trading around daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08. It is very difficult to see if the wick/spike above the aforementioned daily supply area was a genuine continuation move or a fakeout. The 4hr timeframe shows price is currently trading in between 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 and 4hr supply at 1342.30-1335.74 with a break yet to be seen either side, however do watch these areas just mentioned as a break of either could very well answer our questions as to whether a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331) is occurring.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1309.75 (SL likely to be set at 1303.11 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1334.17 SL: 1343.78 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

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