Bad News For NFP Bulls: Help Wanted Ads Plunge By Most Since Lehman Collapse

There is one major problem, for the administration at least, when it comes to presenting labor data that is not "compiled" by the Bureau of beLabored Statistics and its Bank of Spain-endorsed Arima-X-13 seasonal data fudging program: it reflects realty, not statistical or seasonal adjustments, and certainly can not be skewed this way or that depending on what best suits the incumbent presidential candidate two months ahead of the election. Which is why one won't read anywhere that one of the most reliable indicators when it comes to real time hiring data as reported by the actual job market and not by some conflicted, data challenged organization which on top of everything has data leak issues, namely Help Wanted adsjust plunged by the most since the Lehman collapse.

Because while the ECB's disappointing announcement tomorrow will come and go, and the market may rise or fall, depending on how much accrued inflation and money printing is used by Draghi to push stocks higher, and sovereign bond yields of insovent countries lower, absent any of these monetary channels resulting in actual economic improvement (and as a reminder the central banking monetary transmissions pipelines have been clogged for a long, long time courtesy of... central planning), all of it is for nothing.

And all of it may be indeed be for nothing if the reality presented by New Help Wanted ads plunging by a whopping 325,700, or the most since February 2009 in the past two months, is allowed by the BLS to penetrate the facade of made up NFP reporting.

From Credit Suisse:

This measure of labor demand suggests businesses have become a lot less willing to hire in the last two months. Jobless claims in recent months are not showing a deteriorating picture for the layoff side of payrolls, but help wanted online ads are showing weakness on the hiring side.

Biggest two-month drop since the recession three years ago. Help wanted online ads posted a second straight triple-digit decline in Aug after Jul’s big drop. Importantly, new ads accounted for the bulk of the weakness.

The two-month drop for headline help wanted online ads was -262.3K, while the two-month drop for new ads was -325.7K. Both were the worst two-month stretches since Feb 2009.

For the visual learners:

And confirming that the Help Wanted ads is not alone in predicting what in a non-banana kleptocracy otherwise be a wildly negative NFP print, here is the correlation between the Philly Fed index and the NFP change, courtesy of Newedge's Brad Wishak.

Of course, should the NFP indeed tumble by as much as it otherwise would if reality was even remotely reflected in official economic data, the stock market would likely open limit up as a negative NFP print would virtually assure that Bernanke would throw another $1 trillion or so of reshly printed Benjamins into the fire pit, because after all in the New Normal, what has failed 3 times will surely work on the 4th, 5th, or some other time.

that's some scary shit and yet unlike Lehman collapse the markets are beyond bullish! history won't help make sense of these days and the depression "scholar" might as well be studying the paleolithic age in order to stave off the end of mankind at the rate we're going, erroneous scholarly insights notwithstanding.

All it means is the commodities will expereince ultra deflation eventually, and the markets may very well qe to infinity. Where there is fed intervention, logic does not exist. Only what the fed says, does.

Besides, who cares, the longer the game goes on, the more chance to make money in the market there is. Why curse this era? The slower the collapse is, the more people that will figure it all out, and will buy bullion.

The Bernank hath broken all markets, and his radical central bank monetary interventionism (unprecedented in any alleged "capitalistic" nation-state) has and continues to crowd out organic, private economic activity.

He's going to break all markets even further, too, with Congress & The President as his accomplices (with each pointing the finger at each other, while aiding and assisting The Bernank), and the ECB, BOJ and BOE will all join in the merriment.

Wait till after Obama's reelected if you want some doom and gloom. Right now there is a lull to see how the elections turn out. From my friends in business and my reading of the tea leaves a second Obama term will start with a decided thud. Some are holding layoffs off to see how it goes.

Don't worry though...no matter how many jobs are lost in a second round of recession it will be less than what would have been lost if Obama was not President. That will be bullish for more QE and stocks.

Tell me about it, my "year off" is coming to an end as my savings are shrinking and I have caught every last fish off of the San Diego coast. The only job that caught my eye this week on craigslist was for a sign twirler down on midway drive, maybe even luck out and spin the Dejavu sign for money, and maybe they throw in some lap dances.

You can't fudge raw hard numbers. But remember folks, "the stock market isn't the economy". These jokers can lift the market 1% or more any time they want. It's best not to play but be careful if you do.

This is misleading. Some help wanted ads are down, yes, but others are way up. Like at Gun Stores. And Survival Food places. And Collection Agencies. All shovel ready jobs I tell you, and more proof that things are getting better </sarc>

Peter O’Toole: Did you find a job?Woody Allen: Yeah, I got something at the striptease. I help the girls dress and undress.Peter: Nice job.Woody: Twenty francs a week.Peter: Not very much.Woody: It’s all I can afford.

Well,watch CLITTON destroy the GOP tonight............................he secretly hates ObWan,made no bones about it,reminds me of, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wKyXA_nMVQ , but he will act like any other Globalist clown, if there is a camera to be seen,he will be in front of it.

Hellary, is said to be NOWHERE to be found at this dysfunctional event.

Said would not appear proper........yeah, I would hide too, since your running in'16.

Hopefully they remove his CEEGARS from his pocket prior to the smile & MORE lies fest.

Like HE was the last POUTUS to show a surplus, because the GOP was in control and made him.

Well,O dodged a bullet, since there is a 20% chance of Tstorms, the 70k+ stadium that was going to be 50% empty, is now out of the PIC.Who cancels a speech to so many loving,adoring, idol worshipping fans of welfare, and SNAP cards?, over a 20% chance of lightning........................LOL.

Waiting for Reuters to let us know it's been moved to the local MickeyD's.

Peter Schiff should be grateful for QE, he banks at JP Morgan, his business could have gone down with JPM in 2008 were it not for bubble Bens public mandate to back-stop bankings biggest gamblers/losers

The guy recommends physical gold and silver, get the hell away from bonds, own foreign currencies of the few countries left with a viable economic foundation....and yes stocks in companies in Asia and other markets and even the miners....At least be honest.

In short, the worldwide slowdown is showing up in manufacturers' production stats.

Employment recorded an increase in the same report, but the other numbers indicate a building of inventory to support lay-offs, rather than addressing the shrinking backlog with a shorter workweek or other means.

This indicates manufacturers do not expect sales to pick up before the need to make larger-scale labor cutbacks.

I overheard a Wal Mart employee talking to several people today in Lake City, XX. She said Wal Mart is only filling part-time positions so that they do not have to pay benefits. Still, they became interested when she told them that there were openings for part-time night-time positions.

I posted this before, but HR isn't even posting positions for decent jobs, their either recruiting off profiles directly or by recommendations only. Of course a "decent" job, or a job at all is relative, but from my perspective, anything under $25/hr or $50k are the only jobs being posted for the public at large. Mid-lifers are fucked as corps. unload the heavy salary and grandfathered benefits (seen this happen multiple times directly). Oh, and if you work for IBM here in the states, you're fucked (outside of sales), start looking for a new job yesterday or relocate in Singapore, South Africa or Brazil because those are the only places an American is keeping their job with them (yes, including engineers).

What you guys don't realize is that under Obummer and Benny we are only into year 4 of the 5 year plan. Give them another year to get this crap straightened out. Central planning is a definite science, just ask Russia and China.

When Obama came into office the whole fucking city was on fire, and Bush and company were running from the mess with eyes closed, hands over ears shouting "we didn't do it!".

Then after Obama doused the flames, as messy as that was, all the Bush supporters in Etchy clothes come circling back crying that he didn't save their fine collection of collectible kitty plates from breaking... and he deserves to be fired for this because the smoldering house just 'isn't as good as it used to be.'

Zhers are missing something very fundamental here. The jobs report will be okay. We are in an election year. Both parties hired campaign workers to do a myriad of tasks. They are going to count them. Maybe even twice. But Obama is going to get a good number here because they will claim all the people the SuperPacs hired for Romney. And it will just be a guess. This is where Obama punks Romney and the election has a nice clear path.