Archive for April, 2013

High pressure should hold on long enough so that we have a dry weekend but wet weather will be at our doorstep on Sunday. Western portions of Virginia will most likely see the rain as we head into Sunday afternoon. Once the wet weather moves into Hampton Roads (which should be Monday morning), weather forecasters currently believe that our rain chances will be elevated for several days next week. That doesn’t mean it will rain each day in all parts of our region. It just means that we will have a chance of rain each day. With the onshore wind this weekend and the clouds expected early next week, no really warm air is expected for a while. I looked at the precipitation potential over the next few days from the HPC, and it appears that areas to our southwest are going to receive the most rainfall. The weather systems that will be bringing the wet weather looks like they will be quite complex, so there may be changes to the forecast as we go through the next few days. So, enjoy the weekend and make sure you get that yard work done.

For those of you who like the warm weather, you’re going to have to wait a while as our weather will be on the chilly side for the next few days. The reason is a sprawling high pressure system to our north that will be slowly sliding eastward off the Southeast Canada and New England coast early this week. The flow around this high will keep it cool and breezy here in Hampton Roads. Low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal boundary well offshore off the Southeast coast. This low will move northeast and the heaviest rainfall associated with it is expected to stay offshore. However, some light showers or even a period of light rain may affect some parts of the region on Monday. Either way, it should turn out to be a rather raw day with that stiff northeast wind. This low will slowly move away by mid-week and we should see a warming trend. However, that warming trend will be short-lived as yet another chilly air mass will be moving into the region possibly associated with some showers and maybe even thunderstorms…. The flooding in the Mid-West is quite a contrast to the drought conditions that were affecting this region just a few months ago. Last year, the Mississippi River was running well below its normal levels affecting shipping. Now, there is flooding reported in many of the tributaries that flow into the Mississippi. That’s weather for you… sometimes, it’s either feast or famine.

A strong cold front moved through the region overnight which was accompanied by periods of rain, some of it moderate to heavy at times. This was the same system that brought flooding rainfall and severe weather to parts of the Mid-West and Southeast. Temperatures behind the front are much cooler. The wet weather will move offshore and a slow clearing trend is expected today. Winds will eventually become NE on Sunday which will keep things cool here in Hampton Roads. This will be due to a strong high pressure system that will slowly move eastward off of the New England Coast. A low pressure system is expected to develop to our south which may bring some cloudiness back in on Monday. The main challenge for weather forecasters is whether any rain will reach this far north. I will have an update on Sunday on that possibility. Either way, it looks like we will see below normal temperatures through early next week.

As we progress through spring, it is very common to hear weather forecasters say that it will be cooler near the water during the afternoons. The ocean, bays, rivers, etc. take longer to warm up than the land, so a breeze from the water can still be quite chilly along the coast. Once we get into late spring, the cooler breezes from the water offer relief from the heat. Today (Sunday), our winds will eventually become onshore so the further inland you are, the warmer it will be. Clouds from a system well to our south and west will start to increase later today. The forecast becomes a bit tricky for later tonight and Monday. Computer models indicate that the significant rainfall should stay to our south. However, some light showers, or even a period of rainfall, might occur on Monday, especially in our southernmost areas. With the clouds and onshore flow, Monday should be a bit on the cool side. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday with only a chance of an isolated shower during this period.

A cold front moved through overnight sweeping the warm, humid air out to sea. Total rainfall in my neighborhood was around two tenths of an inch, which was less than what was initially expected from this system. Temperatures will be very pleasant this weekend, ideal for most outdoor activities. Our normal high temperature at this time of year is 67 degrees. We should see high temperatures at seasonal levels or just above that. The forecast becomes a bit uncertain on Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves to our south. Right now, the thinking is that most of the precipitation with this system should stay south of the region. However, the models have been trending a bit further northward so I don’t think we can totally rule out some light rain or showers on Monday. With more clouds, Monday will most likely be cooler.