Dot Earth Blog: Good Odds of First U.S. Hurricane Strike Since 2008

The last time we went two years without a U.S. hurricane was 2000 and 2001. The longest gap of no hurricane years was 1862-1864…. The no-hit streak is more remarkable for the East coast (northward of Florida). The last year was 2005. You need to go back to the early/mid 60s for a streak of comparable length. The average number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes since 1851 is 1.69. There is no significant upward or downward trend in these counts. In fact, it is remarkably stationary given that basin-wide counts have increased recently…. Years with higher probabilities tend to be associated with La Nina conditions in the Pacific and higher [sea surface temperatures] across the Atlantic. These are conditions that make the basin as a whole more active. Another factor that is correlated with U.S. hurricane probability is the springtime North Atlantic oscillation [NAO]. When the NAO...