000
FXUS64 KMAF 062325
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are expected to develop nwwd after 06Z into all TAFs
sites except CNM with SE wind mostly less than 10kts overnight.
Low clouds will dissipate 15Z-18Z. Arctic cold front will hold
off passing until just after 00Z/Thur.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/
DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwavetrough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow. A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico. The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night. NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation. Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.
The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday. In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area. The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it. The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande. Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a FreezeWatch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High WindWatch from 09z to 15z Thursday.
An upper levelshortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front. Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift. The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico. Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern. Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.
The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well. High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River. Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area. The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 35 60 27 34 / 0 0 20 20
Carlsbad 35 63 28 35 / 0 0 20 20
Dryden 41 67 40 40 / 0 0 20 20
Fort Stockton 42 68 31 36 / 0 0 20 30
Guadalupe Pass 38 53 25 30 / 0 0 20 20
Hobbs 33 57 22 33 / 0 0 20 20
Marfa 31 62 32 36 / 0 0 20 20
Midland Intl Airport 37 62 28 34 / 0 0 20 20
Odessa 37 62 28 34 / 0 0 20 20
Wink 36 63 30 36 / 0 0 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High WindWatch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for Guadalupe Mountains.
FreezeWatch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.
&&
$$