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Reading about the Russian polls about Putin hits me that all people have the contradiction that they are generally against military adventures but you will be hailed the conquering hero if your military adventures are short, 30 – 90 days, and immediately successful. To be honest I with Dan Drenzer, that Putin has had opportunities to remove the Ukrainian threat but he can’t avoid being sucked into a Mission Creep with a military invasion. (The sanctions against imported food seems truly economically weird as food inflation hits the working classes, also his biggest supporters, the most. And all the McDs are being ‘closed for safety concerns’)

I am not Mr. Larison, but let me Elaborate on the Problem with a full scale Russian Military Intervention from a Russian perespective.

Russia would not break much of a sweat to obliberate the Kiev Forces currently engaged around Donetsk and Lugansk. This is especially due to the very bad state of Kievan Aerial Defence, and because what operational reserves they have is barely sufficient to combat the rebels.
However, what happens if Russian tanks roll into Donetsk crushing Ukraines Standing army in the process? Well, since the army is out, the previously subjugated pro Russians in Mariupol, Kharkiv or Odessa may rise (Dneprpetrovsk is directly controlled by the Dneprpetrovsk Oligarch Clan, and Kolomoisky, the leader of that clan/Group now runs it as a private fiefdom). One should note that These cities propably do not have sufficient pro Russian majorities, but subjugated minorities are certainly there.
What does Russia do now? Go into These cities too? Kiev will fight very seriously, especially for Odessa (they have demonstrated this in Odessa before).
Lets assume that Russia proceeds into Odessa. Whats next? Also invading the Areas further west to properly secure Odessa? Precisly where would that end?

If they go all the way, they end up trying to occupy Western Ukraine, which is a real Nationalist hotbed, against an insurgency that will definitly have safe heavens in Poland as well as Military Support from Nato. This is not an attractive prospect.

What Russia actually wants is a Ukraine that works like Mongolia or Kazakhstan (both are generally making Russia and China compete for concessions), while it would prefer a Ukraine is Belarus Situation, Moscow knows that this in unfeasable.
One reason why Russia is so up in arms is because they actually did compete with economical means against the EU for influence over Ukraine.
They felt they won that competition fair and square, and felt cheated by the perceived Regime Change.

What greatly diminishes Odds for a negotiated solution is the maximalist western Position. Ukrainian neutrality is actually a part of the 1990s declaration of state souvereignity, and Ukraine declaration of Independence explicitly states that the Independence will occur according to the declaration of state souvereignity.
One should not that These two declarations had Referendums to back them up, and that the neutrality was an explicit concession to the Russian Soviet republic and to the Russian Population in Ukraine. Even with that concession, Crimeas Referendum was a close run thing.

If you want, you can view this declarations as the divorce papers. Ukraine promised to stay neutral (and not to be a jerk to the minorities, one should note that Russophones are still a majority), in return, Russia would not interfere in Ukrainian affairs and accepts Ukrainian sovereignity over South East Ukraine and Crimea. These lands only became Ukrainian during the chaos of the Russian civil war, at a concession to Ukrainian communists, and used to be directly Russian before this happened.

Maidan + the west broke the neutrality deal by force (this is a big distinction to the orange Revolution which did not saw a kinetic Russian Response), and Russia no longer feels bound to uphold her end of the bargain.

P.S. from a Russian pov, crushing Kievs Standing army would empower the Nationalist and Fascist militias, who could go into hiding to avoid the Russian forces, at the expense of the “moderate” factions in Kiev. This is not a dynamic they want.

Some good points you make. But I would add–how about for US decision makers learn about real state of the affairs on the ground. I am sure that US intelligence and military professionals know (or suspect) about what is going on there–I doubt their opinions really reach the decision-making level.

P.S. I still would debate some of your points re: Russian POV but I applaud you for the attempt.

Well, I am only half Russian (other half is pretty drat German, as one may glean from the overlong posts).
I would stand by the point that Ultra-Nationalist irregulars and militias would likely survive a full scale intervention better then Ukraines remaining regular forces, since the former can hide among some parts of the population, the latter much less so.

If the Kiev authorities are suddenly graced with the reincarnation of Rokosovsky in a command position, they may be able to successfully evacuate some of their forces in an intervention scenario, but this would be a long shot. If one cant run, ones hiding capacities become really important.