Local elections: Six things you need to know about Ukip, Labour and the Tories

Some perspective here: Ukip will pick up a couple of hundred seats, out of more than 4,000 up for grabs. And they probably won’t control a single council by the end of the day. Are we all getting a bit over-excited? The reason the political world is so excited about Ukip is not because Nigel Farage’s party is winning. It’s because Ukip is causing the bigger parties to lose, and lose in places where they really ought to be winning. So in Basildon – home of the “Essex man” voters who swung the 1992 election for John Major – Ukip cost the Tories control. And in the north, Ukip started to break into Labour heartlands like Manchester and Rotherham and Dudley. That means the big parties can no longer be sure of winning places they usually bank on.

2. This is the most important graph in British politics

Courtesy of Lib Dem Voice

In the 1950s, the two big parties regularly took more than 9 of every 10 votes cast in Britain. That’s now more like two thirds. In other words, the two-party system is over. The dominance of the big parties meant that it was possible for them to score close to 40 per cent in general elections, a magic number that often delivers large Commons majorities. That sort of dominance now looks certain to elude either Labour or the Conservatives for the time being.

It’s already become a truism this morning that Britain is now in an age of four-party politics. What’s more important is what that means: an era of weak governments struggling to command support of most voters.

3. Ed Miliband is struggling to convince voters…

Thurrock. Swindon. Walsall. Tamworth. All places where Labour has to win if it wants to look like a government-in-waiting. But in all those places, Mr Miliband’s party fell short. That’s only increased the Labour whispering about the party leader: is he their biggest electoral problem?

4. But so are the Conservatives

It’s not just Ukip that has gained from the Tories. Losing Hammersmith and Fulham to Labour will worry Tories. The Conservatives also lost Croydon to Labour. Those councils cover Westminster seats that the Tories must win if they are to have any hope of a Commons majority next year. And watch the overall seats figure. Net losses of more than 200 and the Tories are having a bad, bad day.

5. Even cockroaches can be killed

Lib Dems glory in their resilience, enjoying a reputation as political cockroaches able to survive even nuclear strikes. But resilience has limits. The Lib Dems are having an awful time and have lost even in strongholds like Kingston-on-Thames. Losing councillors is especially bad for the Lib Dems. As a small (and shrinking) party they rely on local councillors as the backbone of their ground operation. These losses will hurt them at the general election.

6. London is a foreign country

They do things differently there. Ukip failed in London, again. Even Ukippers put this down to the capital being different from the rest of Britain. It has more of the middle class professionals and university graduates who are less inclined than average to vote Ukip. It has more immigrants and Britons from immigrant backgrounds. And it's richer, riding out the recent economic crisis better than most other places. The gap between London and the rest was already social and economic. Now it's political.