I just wanted to take a quick moment and thank everyone again for their business in 2017. The year had a lot of up’s and down’s, but overall turned out pretty well with all things considered. I am optimistic looking into 2018 and feel prepared to take on the potential challenges. I wish you all a safe and happy New Year celebration, and I look forward to servicing and helping our customers achieve a successful 2018!

This morning, Charter Spectrum caused our entire phone system to crash. We have been without phones since 10am. I wanted to let you all know that our email still works and you can reach us at angela@crawfordoilco.com or jen@crawfordoilco.com. We are still in business and our numbers will still be the same. We apologize for the inconvenience. I will update you as soon as we are up and running.

Geopolitical news has been very quiet going into the end of the year. Crude prices rallied a little with the shutdown of the Forties Pipeline in England that carries 400k barrel/day. The tax cut bill from Congress really ate up the news cycle of this week. But as predicted last week, retail prices were falling and stabilizing to the lowest of the last 2 months. We were seeing lower prices coming for Christmas which always makes for better holidays. In fact, historically prices usually fall before Christmas.

Please read the article posted above. In Chicago, the Exxon/Mobil and Marathon refineries went down and were unable to be fixed. The issues are being kept very secret. However, from the contacts that I have in Chicago, the outages are expected to remain for the first couple weeks of 2018. These issues sent the spot price of gasoline rocketing up 30 cents/gallon in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. So unfortunately, the Christmas gift of cheaper fuel as in years past was stolen by Exxon/Mobil and Marathon.

I expect retail gas prices to edge up closer to $2.49/gallon and diesel prices near $3.00/gallon. These prices could hold for up to two to three more weeks. Once Exxon/Mobil and Marathon are back on line, gasoline spot prices will drop fast. I will keep you updated as information is released.

Propane prices are very stable due to the overall lack of winter demand in the country. Here in our neck of the woods, we are a bit colder than last year. However, we are still not that cold in comparison to four or five years ago. For now supplies and prices are stable which makes the delivery logistics much easier for the industry.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

Happy Thursday. Oh, what a difference a week makes. For the past few weeks the markets have been digesting the OPEC cut extension set to move through 2018. These cuts are looking to remove a giant glut of crude in the world marketplace and bring the fundamentals back into a shortfall scenario. The “fly in in the ointment” is non-OPEC production in 2018, and most importantly the United States. The IEA came out with a bearish report for crude going through 2018. The IEA predicts that the non-OPEC supply of crude will rise to 1.6MM barrels/day versus the 600k in 2017! This incredible surge in production could potentially wipe out the cuts from OPEC by mid-year in 2018. OPEC concurred that the non-OPEC production, particularly from the U.S. is of concern. One potential scenario is that if crude grows to surplus inventory again, Saudi Arabia and Russia will go toe-to-toe. Russia will want to increase production to flood the market and wipe out future production for the U.S., and Saudi Arabia will threaten to cut as much as Russia over-produces to keep the market in balance. Saudi Arabia likes the current crude price for their IPO offering in 2018, and Russia does not like this price because the U.S. is starting to take their customers.

In local inventory news, the EIA showed another dramatic drop in U.S. crude inventories, but an incredible build in gasoline. The offset displays the robust refining margins on the current crack spread for WTI and the WTI/Brent spread for export. Propane inventories actually showed a small increase during one of the highest potential demand months of the year. Propane markets are starting to sell off a bit due to the lack of demand events that were predicted. We are not in the “falling knife” scenario yet, but if January doesn’t get cold, I expect propane prices to fall dramatically.

In local news, gasoline prices continue to remain stable and fall slightly averaging around $2.25-2.29/gallon. Diesel prices remain below $3/gallon, even though most sites are using winter additive and #1 oil for winter blending which increases costs. I predict gasoline to be around $2.25/gallon for Christmas. Propane prices are starting to move downward, but still well above contracted prices. Therefore, all customers who have contracted their fuel have done very well in the first half of winter. January through March is yet to be determined as demand has yet to show itself due to warmer temperatures.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.

The WTI crude oil market seems to have found a floor at around $55/barrel. After the announcement of the OPEC extension, there was a little uptick in crude prices at the end of last week. However, on Friday, the U.S. continued to show growth by adding more production rigs. Some traders took a little profit and the volatility train kicked in this week. In addition, the U.S. announced a large drawdown in crude inventory this week (5.6MM barrels), but skyrocketed supplies of finished product (8.5MM barrels) due to very attractive crack spreads. Also, WTI continues to be very competitive to Brent making the U.S. a competitive player on the open market. Another big surprise this week was the large build in propane inventory (1.3MM barrels). Due to the large drop in corn drying demand, some are thinking that production will keep up with demand. For now propane prices have steadied, but any large increase in demand or a drop in crude causing drops in production could cause propane prices to spike due to low inventory levels.

In local retail news, the retail price of gasoline is near $2.30/gallon, down from almost $2.49/gallon a month ago. Diesel prices have steadied to about $2.79/gallon. However, most diesel is now blended with winter additive and #1 oil adding almost a 10cent/gal cost to the product. If crude prices stay in a tight range, I expect to see these lower prices going into Christmas driving season which would be great for everyone!

Propane retail prices have not moved since last week. I believe we have potentially reached the highest price for the month. For now we will wait and see what happens if the cold weather holds on. For those who contracted, you are still way under the market which is a good win going into the holidays.

As always, if you have any questions, comments, or concerns, please feel free to give us a call.