Friday, February 29, 2008

With the exception of a few sprinkles of rain late Friday night, we're look for a dry and sunny weekend. No doubt, March will come in like a lamb with high pressure dominating our weather. The "lamb-like" weather won't last through next week though. I have more in today's morning video blog...

The latest drought monitor map released on Thursday shows the area of exceptional drought in North Carolina has shrunk from 64 counties last week to 39 counties this week. It is important to note this is in no ways a sign the drought is over. Drought conditions continue all across North Carolina, and it's still important for all of us to continue our conservation efforts. Near normal precipitation in February has helped some in our area. However, since January 2007, we are still over 10" behind in our rainfall.

Here's a look at the latest snow totals available from the mountains. Since it is tough to get snow reports during the middle of the night and early in the morning, most of these reports were as of Wednesday evening. Some of these locations likely have higher snow totals this morning since some spots of the mountains have seen snow showers overnight --

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Thanks to Tonya in Hope Mills for writing in to let us know there were snow flurries falling there earlier this morning. Other reports of flurries came in from the south side of Raleigh close to the noon hour. No accumulations are expected, but as long as the winds remain high and the overall airmass is cold- a few flurries are possible!

Check out this beautiful shot taken from a webcam early this morning of snow in the Shining Rock Wilderness area of the North Carolina mountains... I have more images of the mountain snow in today's video blog update posted below...

For links to webcams around the mountains and a look at yesterday's rains, check out the blog entries posted below.

There's a picture from Mt. Mitchell early this morning. Snow has been falling in most mountain locations since late last night and will continue through today. The western slopes of the higher elevations may see as much as 10" when all is said in done.

Some of those snow bands may make it just over the mountains. As a disturbance works across central North Carolina around midday, we'll see a period of cloudy skies and a few spots in our area may see an isolated flurry. That's a small chance though. If you see a flurry today, you can let us know. E-mail us your report and pictures to weather@news14.com.

For you real snow lovers who really want to see some snow, you can watch the snowfall in the mountains from your computer desktop -- http://www.highcountrywebcams.com/ has webcam views from around the mountains.

As of Wednesday morning, the February rainfall deficit at RDU is only 0.05" and the 2008 deficit now stands at 2.81". Since January 2007, we are 10.05" behind the normal rainfall. A few flurries are possible in some spots today and there's a slight chance for a sprinkle or light shower Friday night. However, our next chance for measurable rainfall will come late Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the day today. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds and frequent lightning. On average, we expect about a half of an inch of rain today. However, locations that see thunderstorms (especially for areas just south and east of Raleigh) up to an inch of rain is possible.

Meteorologist Joshua McKinney will be in the Weather on the Ones Forecast Center through the midday and afternoon hours to keep you updated on any storms that develop across our area. You'll find the very latest weather information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones only on News 14 Carolina. If storms occur in your neighborhood, you can send your storm reports and weather pictures anytime to weather@news14.com.

Monday, February 25, 2008

A few sprinkles of rain fell across our area Sunday afternoon and again very early Monday morning, but the rain did not add up to much --

Henderson-Oxford: 0.09"

Chapel Hill: 0.05"

Louisburg: 0.04"

Raleigh-Durham: 0.04"

Wilson: Trace

Our next chance for rain coming up Tuesday does look to bring us a little more rain. We should see between 0.25" and 0.5" across our area as a cold front crosses the state. The best chance for rain will come during the afternoon hours when a few thunderstorms will be possible. Locations south and east of Raleigh will stand a little better chance of hearing the thunder, and that's the area that may see slightly more rain.

The rain should taper off late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Then we look for a big cool down behind the front. Lows will drop into the low to mid 20s on Thursday morning, which should be the coldest of the week. We may even have some upper teens that morning!

The National Weather service reported that in the early morning hours of February 18th, a mesocyclone tracked NE from near Hookerton in Greene county (Eastern NC) just south of Greenville in Pitt county, across Old Ford, North of Washington in Beaufort county and across eastern Marton county near Jamesville. as it moved NE it spawned 2 tornadoes along its path.

One which moved through Greene county, touching down approximately 1 mile north of Hookerton, it reached an EF2 intensity with winds of 120 mph. It destroyed a 2-story solid built home and ripped the home off of an adjacent mobile home.

This weekend was far quiter...lets go to today's summary and talk about the start of this next work week.

After Saturday's morning fog , storms and clouds, it was wonderful to see the sun pop out (albeit briefly in some areas). It warmed us up nicely into the 60s but the tail end of the weekend is expected to be cooler with the possibility of a few sprinkles or showers thanks to a passing upper level disturbance.

A system developing over the midwest looks to bring another wintry punch by Tuesday to central Iowa and northern Illinois. If you have travel plans north of Virginia for midweek, call ahead as it could be messy!

As we're in exceptional drought throughout a good deal of the state, its good to see the potential for some rain. The same system which will cause that wintry weather for the Midwest and Northeast may bring portions of NC up to three quarters of an inch of rain . As we're still a couple of days from the event, we'll keep checking to see if this model changes its opinion.

The storm continues to make its way toward the Ohio Valley and Northeast US for Tuesday and by mid week is expected to cause some travel problems for travelers north of Harrisburg, PA.

Our showers are expected to arrive in central NC by afternoon Tuesday.

Before the showers though, we have a mild start for the work week! High pressure which had some cooler air for us today will migrate eastward Monday which will steer in some warming southerly winds. highs monday are expected to reach 60 and even climb into the lower to middle 60s for Tuesday.

What a difference a day makes for us. After the rains, an upper level trough swings through which has some colder air in store for us. we'll have a one-two shot of this colder air; first on Wednesday with highs only in the lower 50s, then on Thursday we're fighting to stay in the upper 40s.

However, we're expected to return to more seasonable temperatures by the end of the week. Next weekend looks to be a bit cloudy for saturday, even some showers are possible. Sunday looks to be sunny with highs in the upper 50s.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Looks like clouds will be sticking around for our weekend as a weak disturbance comes across our area on the heels of a storm that brought some measurable rain for our drought-stricken state. Some breaks in the clouds are possible later on Saturday, but clouds are expected to return on Sunday.

Sunday we could see an isolated light shower thanks to an upper level low coming across the southeast.

Monday, high pressure to the north sags southeast, we'll have a warmer day and watch for the next system from the plains states as it moves eastward. It could bring us a shower and some more snow for the midwest on Tuesday!

Friday, February 22, 2008

What a chilly, damp start to our Friday! Moisture from the south moved in over prevailing cold dry air, which caused some areas to have a mix or freezing rain into Friday morning. If any accumulation occurred (and some reports were for a little ice in trees , we'll pass along any other reports as we get them, please feel free to send in yours to weather@news14.com) it happened on elevated surfaces since our ground temperatures were in the 40s.

Some preliminary rain amounts:

Charlotte: .30"

New Bern: .67"

Fayetteville: .60"

Wilmington: 1.14"

Lumberton: .64"

RDU: .23"

Wilson: .30"

Roanoke Rapids: .20"

The storm systems come together off the coast later tonight and continue to pull to the north and east, we'll still see a boundary over southern NC which could keep come clouds around into the first part of the weekend, especially along the coast where there could even be a chance for showers here and there.

Temperatures look mild for saturday (average highs for mid February are mid 50s, and we have forecast high of the lower to middle 60s), but are expected to return to the 50s for Sunday.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

What a week it has been.... starting very early Monday morning with tornado warnings in the Sandhills and eastern North Carolina. Now, we may wrap up the week with a brief round of wintry weather. However, when it comes to icy events in North Carolina, this one should be very minor. By Friday morning, this should be mostly just a cold rain event for most people in our viewing area.

Cold and dry air has moved into North Carolina today. In fact, the dewpoint at 11am this morning is sitting at 11 degrees at RDU. That is very dry and one key factor in the forecast for late tonight and early tomorrow morning. The air is currently drier than most model predictions. As warm, moist air from the storm system developing along the Gulf coast overruns the cold, dry air in place more evaporative cooling will take place that what is forecast by the latest computer models.

Late this afternoon, you may begin to see what appears to be precipitation on radar over North Carolina. Most of that will not be reaching the ground because of how dry the air is. That precipitation aloft well be evaporating before it hits that ground. Through the evening, that evaporation process will help to cool the temperature even further. That should eventually bring the temperature to near freezing around Raleigh and points to the north and west by late tonight.

As of this posting, it appears the precipitation will begin across the Triangle between 9pm and 11pm tonight. Look for a wintry mix around Raleigh and to the north and west. Some snow and sleet are possible before changing over to freezing rain. South and east of Raleigh should see all rain. The freezing rain should change over to just a cold rain across the Triangle through the overnight and early mornings hours. By the morning rush hour on Friday, most of the Triangle should just see a cold rain with temperatures between 33 and 35. Some locations from Hillsborough to Oxford and points toward Greensboro may still have freezing rain into the rush hour.

According to information from the Raleigh National Weather Service Office from earlier today, ground temperatures across our area are running around 40-45 degrees. Any light glazing from the brief round of freezing rain will be confined to elevated surfaces. A few slick spots may form on bridges and overpasses. Slighty higher ice accumulations to a tenth of an inch are possible around the Triad (Greensboro-Winston-Salem).

With all that said, if you have followed winter weather in North Carolina for any length of time, you know there can be surprises. We'll be closely watching for any changes through the afternoon and evening. Stay with News 14 Carolina for the most up to date information every 10 minutes with Weather on the Ones. Our forecast center will be staffed around the clock to provide you with the latest information.

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

A cold front will move through North Carolina today ushering in colder air leading to a big cool down for Thursday. Tomorrow's high temperatures should be about 20 degrees colder than today. With cold air in place over the Carolinas Thursday, our attention will turn to a developing storm system along the Gulf coast. That system will push additional moisture into our area overunning the cold, dry air that will already be in place. That sets up a weather pattern we refer to as a "cold air wedge" over the central Carolinas.

With precipitation falling into that "cold air wedge" beginning Thursday evening, there is the chance for some wintry precipitation. That may begin as a quick burst of snow before quickly changing to a sleet and freezing rain mixture mainly from Raleigh to the north and west. Ground temperatures are warm enough and the precipitation should be very light that little to no accumulation is expected at first. Some elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses may see a light glazing late Thursday night and Friday morning. Again, this looks to mainly happen on the northwest side of the Triangle and points to the west.

The wintry mix should fairly quickly become just a cold rain for Friday around Raleigh. This changeover may take a while the closer you get to the Triad (Greensboro and Winston-Salem).

As with any winter weather system in this part of North Carolina, the forecast is very tricky. We'll continue to fine tune the forecast as new information comes in. Stay tuned to Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina for updates.

For an in-depth look at today's forecast, check out our video blog.

If you like our new video blog, you'll find it updated a couple times a day on our weather page at news14.com.

Another Red Flag Warning has been posted for 9am to 9pm Wednesday. This one includes all of the News 14 Carolina viewing area. In fact, almost all of North Carolina will be under a Red Flag Warning today.

A cold front that we call a "clipper" will move through the state later today. Ahead of that clipper, winds will be from the southwest at 15-25mph with gusts up to 35 or 40mph. Combine the windy weather with low humidities and already dry conditions, and any fires could spread rapidly. No outdoor burning today!

We do have a chance for some precipitation by the end of the week. This should be mostly a cold rain for us on Friday. However, the onset of the precipitation Thursday evening and Thursday night could start as a wintry mix or freezing rain in some areas especially north and west of Raleigh. We continue to follow the latest weather data coming in for the forecast Thursday night and early Friday. Stay tuned for updates...

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

It was a stormy start to the week early Monday morning in eastern North Carolina. Two tornadoes have now been confirmed in North Carolina. The first was an EF2 tornado near Snow Hill in Greene County. According to information from the National Weather Service, 3 people were injured in that tornado. Roofs were blown off two mobile homes and a two story home was leveled. The second tornado was an EF1 tornado near Old Fort in Beaufort County.

Tornado warnings were also issued for Robeson, Sampson, and Wayne Counties but there were no reports of tornado touchdowns in those areas. Half dollar size hail was reported in Wayne County. There was also reports of hail and some wind damage in Sampson County.

The heaviest rains with Monday's storms also fell in the eastern part of the state. Here's a look at rain from around our region --

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Its been an interesting day in the forecast center as we wait for the rain to arrive! There is a change for our showers to become more numerous tonight as a cold front passes through the state. There is also a chance for some gusty thunderstorms as the cold front progresses eastward overnight into Monday afternoon. Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates on any watches or warnings associated with this storm system.

The Storm Prediction Center has a forecast for Sunday which has the best chance for severe storms over the gulf coast states. There is a possibility for thunderstorms as well for much of the east coast that could contain gusty winds. Timeline for these storms for Central and Eastern North Carolina will be later overnight Sunday into Monday morning for Central NC, and Monday am into the afternoon for the Eastern portions of NC (Eastward of I-95).

This risk map is for areas east of I-95 for a risk of strong to severe storms monday afternoon into the evening.

Monday also has a forecast for a reinforcing shot of colder air. Expect a mild start for the workweek but chilly highs Tuesday. While the map does not sho the rest of the week, we do have a chance for more rain Thursday into friday.

Saturday, February 16, 2008

This weekend has great weather for being outside and also has some rain to wrap it all up! Our cold front which passed through overnight Friday ushered in some cooler and drier air but did little to actually change our highs for this afternoon.Our chance for some much needed rain falls with this system which is over Texas for the start of the weekend. Its making a beeline for the Great Lakes region but will still bring a warm front across the Southeast early Sunday.With the passage of the warm front will come some widely scattered showers Sunday afternoon. There's a possibility that we could see a wide range of temperatures, with 50s in the triangle region, cooler to the north and west, and the possibility for sandhills communities to see upper 60s.

Our best chance for rain will come later Sunday with the cold front. A slight risk for strong to severe storms accompanies this front late Sunday night into Monday morning. The best location for these strong to severe storms is eastward from a line that extends southward from Henderson through Cary to Rockingham (eastward of highway 1).

As far as how much rain (yes, you had to read all of this just to get to the magic number) we're expecting, well, the models have placed central North Carolina in a precipitation forecast of less than one inch. Considering that we're still in the highest level of drought throughout much of the state, it would be nice to get a week-long soaker, but this will ahve to do for now. Keep conserving!

Stay tuned to News 14 Carolina for updates if we have any breaking weather with the passage of the front. You can also get your weather anytime at news14.com. Thanks for stopping by.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Looks like our work week ends on a springlike note! We have southerly winds around high pressure to credit for this nice day with highs almost 10 degrees above our normal 54 degree high. We're looking at 63-67 this afternoon with high clouds.Clouds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching cold front which will pass over the state overnight with barely a sprinkle. Lows will be near 40.Saturday is back to the 50s as high pressure, this time to our north, swings in some easterly winds and taps into a cooler airmass.Sunday is our chance for measurable rain as a storm system from the four corners region of the Southwest US makes a beeline from Texas to Michigan and intensifies to a pretty decent storm. What that means for us is an increase in southerly winds, more moisture and warmer weather once again.We're looking Sunday for cloudy skies, highs near 60 with developing showers and even a chance for t-storms, some of which could be strong to severe especially along and east of highway 1 (meaning a line from Henderson southward through Cary, continuing south through Sanford to Rockingham , then proceeding east from that for our area of concern). We'll continue to monitor that for you and keep you updated. Monday will have falling temps after early highs in the upper 50s.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

A few more snow pictures to share with you.... These are from the Triad. The first two were taken by a News 14 Carolina viewer in downtown Greensboro. ... and this one from a News 14 Carolina viewer in Winston-Salem -- While snow flurries were in the forecast around the Triangle and Triad for late Wednesday evening, the Triad woke up to more of a surprise Thursday morning. Greensboro and Burlington reported as much as 2.5" of snow and 2.0" was reported in Winston-Salem. The snow won't last for too long today though with afternoon temperatures reaching the 50s.

A few snow showers fell across the Triangle late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Most spots around the Triangle only saw a trace of snow but there were some light accumulations reported north and west of Raleigh. The above pictures were taken by Bonnie More snow fell toward the Triad. The above photo is from a News 14 Carolina viewer in Stokes County.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

These are temperature maps I grabbed shortly after 3am this morning. It doesn't take much to find the warm front this morning with temperatures in the 60s south and east of Raleigh and the 30s in the Triangle! The above maps don't even show all the details. At 3am this morning, it was in the 39 at RDU Airport, the 44 at News 14 Carolina on the north side of downtown Raleigh and 60 in Fuquay-Varina just south of Raleigh.

Here's where the forecast becomes tricky.... will the warm air that just to the south of Raleigh move south through the Triangle. If it does, morning temperatures could easily warm into the 60s. If the warm stays put, the Triangle may struggle to even warm to the 40s!

Of course, temperatures aren't the only story this morning with rain falling since Tuesday night. I'm still ironing out all the details for our latest forecast update. We'll have that for you through the day on News 14 Carolina with Weather Ones. More blog updates as time is available....

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

A couple of areas to watch today on the national satellite and radar image taken from earlier this morning... The first is the big area of clouds over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida coast. That area of moisture will surge to the north and exactly where it goes may determine who sees the most rain late tonight and Wednesday morning. The Gulf moisture will meet up with a front that is producing wintry weather toward the Great Lakes and stormy weather in Texas this morning. That will ring out some rain across most of North Carolina, but the big question is what spots will see the most rain.

The latest computer models have different answers to exactly what spots will see the most rain making it difficult to say exactly how much rain we expect. One model that we show you each day on Weather on the Ones that we have named "StormCast" is very optimistic for the deep Gulf moisture to move into the central Carolinas tonight. StormCast produces heavy rains and even some thunderstorms in our region around daybreak Wednesday. Other models take that deep Gulf moisture along the coast keeping the heaviest rain totals to our east.

Whichever area picks up the heavist rain, whether it be central North Carolina or coastal North Carolina, likely will see over an inch of rain. If that falls along the coast, we may see less than a half of an inch here. We'll continue to follow the latest weather data and have updates with Weather on the Ones on News 14 Carolina.

If you're looking for more rain after Wednesday, rain is still in the forecast for the upcoming weekend. However, it appears that chance will come on Sunday now.

Sunday, February 10, 2008

Power outages, downed trees, and scattered damage was reported Sunday after winds peaked on Sunday afternoon. To make matters worse, brush fires were reported all over the viewing area. In fact I-85 in Vance County was shut down when a fire reduced visibility to 0!

We've had such mild weather, how spoiled are we for a February in North Carolina!

Today a second cold front passes by and it will be a dry passage once again. Our very low relative humidities paired with sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gust potential of 35-40mph) are bringing a very high risk for wildfires. That being the case, the National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning til 9 tonight.

Sunday's cold front is the leading edge of some pretty chilly air. Under clear skies tonight, our lows will be able to drop into the mid 20s. Winds will also diminish to lower speeds so once we get up and head out tomorrow morning, wind chill will be less of a factor.

The first day of the work-week will be so sunny but it will be chilly with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

The back side of that system will steer southerly winds our way for Tuesday and warm us back up in short order. We'll get right back up into the 50s to 60s . Even more delightful, a chance for rain will come our way for mid week.

Here's Tuesday's map and the storm system we see affecting areas around Arkansas and Missouri is what we're anticipating for NC Late Tuesday into wednesday. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is predicting rainfall total estimates for central NC of about a half of an inch, with heavier rainfalls over the mountains and along the coast. The prediction has changed over the past few days, so we'll continue to monitor this and keep you updated the closer we get to the actual rain event.

Saturday, February 09, 2008

After a week off, I'm eager to post again on the weather on the Ones blog. I sing with the choral Society of Durham and we had a concert last week that included students from Durham high schools. Great voices and a wonderful experience. I'll include the link to that group later in the blog in case you would like to read more about us.

What beautiful weather across North Carolina! Its a little breezy at times, but its to be expected since we do have a cold front crossing over NC. Didn't notice it? I don't blame you, as we don't have clouds or rainfall associated with it. Just a bit of a wind shift and thats it.

One danger we have this weekend is fron our dry conditions paired with increasing winds. It will create a higher fire danger across the state throughout the weekend, especially Sunday. If you had plans for some outdoor burning or anything that would pose a potential fire threat, its highly discouraged this weekend so keep it on the "honey-do list" for another weekend.

This is Sunday's surface map. A second cold front will come across our state for the second half of the weekend. We are expecting higher winds Sunday (sustained winds from the west of about 15-25 mph with gusts that could reach about 40 mph) and that in combination with very low relative humidities and dry leaves, timber and other debris on the ground which will increase our fire danger threat even more. As of this posting, the National Weather Service has posted a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday for high wildfire threat.

Here's Monday's map and it has High pressure making its way to the East coast. Its ushering in cooler air that will keep our temperatures closer to 50-degrees, but that will be short lived.

Another storm system is expected to reach us by mid week, possibly bring about an inch of rain (but since its still too early to tell for sure, stay with us for updates about if/when/and how much rain could come our way).

If you joined us for our weather on the ones video blog, you heard me say that Skywarn Weather Spotter training is coming up once again for North Carolina. This past week we heard about the devastating storms which hit neighborhoods in the Tennessee Valley. If you'd like to learn more about how thunderstorms form and how you could be helpful to weather forcasters by giving storm reports, please check out this link: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/content/CISCO.2008.pdf

Thursday, February 07, 2008

These are just some of the many images from tornadoes that devaasted portions of Arkansas, Tennessee and surrounding states this week. The above three pictures were taken during storm damage surveys by the National Weather Service Office in Memphis.

Here are a few links for more on this week's severe weather outbreak including damage photos and storm survey information --