Cocoa falls as weather proves cooperative for harvest

General Comments: Futures closed lower on ideas of good harvest weather and active movement of beans to ports in western Africa. Some are worried about dry weather developing in western Africa right now and there is a lot of smog in Southeast Asia, but these fears seem to be passing. Ideas of weak demand after the recent big rally kept some selling interest around. The weather is good in West Africa, with more moderate temperatures and some rains. It is hotter and drier again in Ivory Coast this week, but the rest of the region is in good condition. The mid crop harvest is about over, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.984 million bags. ICE said that 29 delivery notices were posted today and that total deliveries for the month are 234 contracts. LIFFE stocks are 7,372 standard delivery units, 143 large delivery units, and 4 bulk delivery units.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2140, 2105, and 2080 September, with resistance at 2200, 2230, and 2250 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1380 and 1270 September. Support is at 1440, 1420, and 1360 September, with resistance at 1470, 1490, and 1520 SeptemberCOTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher on preparations before the USDA reports that come out today. Some speculative buying appeared due to end of the month and end of the quarter position liquidation. The export sales report showed weak demand and was no reason to buy futures. Ideas of better production conditions in the US caused some selling interest. USDA showed that conditions in some areas got better while conditions in other areas got worse and this supported markets. Texas is reporting dry weather again. Dry weather is being reported in the Delta and Southeast as well. The weather should help support crop development in the Delta and Southeast, and could help in Texas as some areas of the state saw good rains last week. Weather for Cotton appears good in India, Pakistan, and China.

Overnight News: The Delta should be dry and Southeast will see some light showers through this weekend and bigger rains next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and near to below normal next week. Texas will get dry weather today and tomorrow, then a few showers early next week. Temperatures will average above to much above normal today, but near to below normal early next week. The USDA spot price is now 81.77 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.612 million bales, from 0.596 million yesterday. ICE said that 96 notices were posted today and that total deliveries are now 1,522 contracts.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 85.10, 84.00, and 82.80 October, with resistance of 86.40, 86.90, and 88.00 October.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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