Chris Wesseling

Draft Analysis

AFC Projected Carries

I'm so used to playing in keeper leagues that my outlook often defaults toward a long-term view where talent trumps situation. It's a mandatory mindset in Dynasty leagues, but it can be dangerous to look at redraft leagues through that distorted coke bottle. In this era of committee backfields, situation and expected workload are often a better predictor of fantasy production. Pure talent is worthless without the ball in its hands.

This column, and its NFC cousin to follow next Wednesday, will project the workload for every team. Consider it advanced draft preparation. Remember, the average rushes per year for each coach is only at their current job. For coaches with four years or more at their current locale, the past two years have been weighted against the previous average. We are only counting attempts from running backs

I'm not buying the McGahee trade talk. His $3.6 million salary is prohibitive and contenders aren't typically in the business of trading quality depth. I expect Rice, McGahee, and McClain to return in the same roles as last season. Why mess with the fifth most successful ground attack in the game? The offensive line has been in flux throughout training camp, but it remains one of the top ten units in the league.

The Bills have one of the most bleak offensive outlooks in the league, but there is a silver lining here. Gailey has been a football nomad since his first stint as the Steelers' offensive coordinator in 1994, and he's been successful with moderate talent at every stop. It's true that Gailey has a strong history of saddling up one workhorse as the primary back. It's even more true that Gailey has a knack for adapting his philosophy to his personnel.

F-Jax is "shooting for" for a return from his broken hand by the season opener, which is on the optimistic end of the scale. I took 10 carries from his projection and split them between Spiller and Lynch. Jackson should remain the primary inside runner. He's clearly outplayed Lynch for two years, and Spiller doesn't run between the tackles.

Lewis always wanted a smashmouth offense to go with a hard-hitting defense, and it finally came together in 2009. It was just in time, too, as it coincided with Carson Palmer's fall from elite quarterback status. The upgrades at receiver and tight end bode well for a slight bounceback from Palmer, but this will remain a run-heavy attack.

Benson will hit that mark if he stays healthy, but that's a big "if." He's never played a full 16-game season, and he was one of the most overused backs in the NFL last season. Scott has earned a bigger role in a change-of-pace capacity, and that total marks an increase of 36 carries.

The Browns ran the ball 55 times more than they passed the ball in Mangini's first season, largely because they were the one team in the league that could commiserate with the Raiders' quarterback situation. If Jake Delhomme manages to hold onto the starting job, it's not going to be much different in Mangini's final season.

Hardesty's recent knee "tweak" killed his offseason momentum, leaving Harrison as the favorite to open the season as the starter. Ultimately, this figures to be a "hot hand" situation. Mangini spent all of last year looking for reasons not to crown Harrison as the feature back, and he loves the way Hardesty is "slapped together" at 220-230 pounds. Don't expect weekly reliability out of either back.

I'm so used to playing in keeper leagues that my outlook often defaults toward a long-term view where talent trumps situation. It's a mandatory mindset in Dynasty leagues, but it can be dangerous to look at redraft leagues through that distorted coke bottle. In this era of committee backfields, situation and expected workload are often a better predictor of fantasy production. Pure talent is worthless without the ball in its hands.

This column, and its NFC cousin to follow next Wednesday, will project the workload for every team. Consider it advanced draft preparation. Remember, the average rushes per year for each coach is only at their current job. For coaches with four years or more at their current locale, the past two years have been weighted against the previous average. We are only counting attempts from running backs

I'm not buying the McGahee trade talk. His $3.6 million salary is prohibitive and contenders aren't typically in the business of trading quality depth. I expect Rice, McGahee, and McClain to return in the same roles as last season. Why mess with the fifth most successful ground attack in the game? The offensive line has been in flux throughout training camp, but it remains one of the top ten units in the league.

The Bills have one of the most bleak offensive outlooks in the league, but there is a silver lining here. Gailey has been a football nomad since his first stint as the Steelers' offensive coordinator in 1994, and he's been successful with moderate talent at every stop. It's true that Gailey has a strong history of saddling up one workhorse as the primary back. It's even more true that Gailey has a knack for adapting his philosophy to his personnel.

F-Jax is "shooting for" for a return from his broken hand by the season opener, which is on the optimistic end of the scale. I took 10 carries from his projection and split them between Spiller and Lynch. Jackson should remain the primary inside runner. He's clearly outplayed Lynch for two years, and Spiller doesn't run between the tackles.

Lewis always wanted a smashmouth offense to go with a hard-hitting defense, and it finally came together in 2009. It was just in time, too, as it coincided with Carson Palmer's fall from elite quarterback status. The upgrades at receiver and tight end bode well for a slight bounceback from Palmer, but this will remain a run-heavy attack.

Benson will hit that mark if he stays healthy, but that's a big "if." He's never played a full 16-game season, and he was one of the most overused backs in the NFL last season. Scott has earned a bigger role in a change-of-pace capacity, and that total marks an increase of 36 carries.

The Browns ran the ball 55 times more than they passed the ball in Mangini's first season, largely because they were the one team in the league that could commiserate with the Raiders' quarterback situation. If Jake Delhomme manages to hold onto the starting job, it's not going to be much different in Mangini's final season.

Hardesty's recent knee "tweak" killed his offseason momentum, leaving Harrison as the favorite to open the season as the starter. Ultimately, this figures to be a "hot hand" situation. Mangini spent all of last year looking for reasons not to crown Harrison as the feature back, and he loves the way Hardesty is "slapped together" at 220-230 pounds. Don't expect weekly reliability out of either back.

The Broncos were a pass-first team in McDaniels' first year, but the defense's dominant start did allow him to lean on a strong ground game through November. That won't be the case this year with All-Pro Elvis Dumervil taking nearly 50 percent of the team's sacks to the sidelines. Kyle Orton will be playing catch-up all season long.

Moreno (hamstring) is expected to be fully healthy by the end of preseason action. On the heels of an impressive offseason, he gets a slight uptick in touches at Buckhalter's expense. Buck is nursing a wonky upper back/neck as he enters his age-32 season. Neither Fargas nor White is a threat to Moreno's weekly touches. He's a rock-solid RB2.

Kubiak has presided over one of the league's more pass-friendly offenses over the past few seasons while maintaining at right around 370 rushing attempts per year. New coordinator Rick Dennison has a background in the ground game, but the personnel (Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Jacoby Jones) dictates a continued reliance on the aerial attack.

The line for now trendy Foster love starts behind Rotoworld. We were hyping the former Tennessee star as a Dynasty deep sleeper once the Texans snatched him up after last year's draft. By mid-November we were promoting him as the potential answer in Houston. Although Ben Tate's season-ending broken fibula has killed Foster's sleeper potential for this year, it certainly offers more clarity in this backfield: Foster is Batman; Slaton is Robin. Draft accordingly.

Only one team in the league (Cardinals) ran the ball less than the Colts in Caldwell's debut season. Indy's 3.5 yards per carry was also the second most futile mark in the NFL. Team president Bill Polian laid the blame squarely at the feet of his offensive line, yet he did nothing substantive to upgrade the unit. This will remain the Peyton Manning Show.

Brown's assorted injuries and pass-protection woes ("God damn-it, Donald!") led to Addai hogging 65 percent of the carries last season. That won't happen again this year. Addai is due to hit free agency in 2011, and the Colts want to see what they have in their explosive 2009 first-rounder. Addai is being overdrafted as a reliable RB2.

Over the last two seasons, David Garrard's pass attempts have skyrocketed while the Jags' rushing attempts have plummeted. That's not by design. Del Rio wishes he could return to the glory days of 2007 (522 rush attempts vs. 469 pass attempts), but his defense keeps putting him behind the eight-ball.

As long as he stays healthy, Jones-Drew is one of the handful of backs in the league that can be counted on for 300 carries. Possibly the most well-rounded player at his position, MJD rarely comes off the field. Keep an eye out for rookie Karim, who turned heads in offseason practices. He should give Jennings a run for the primary backup job while picking up occasional third-down work.

Haley and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis are both steeped in the passing game, but they also believe in running the ball more than enough to keep the defense honest. Haley's lead back garnered at least 14 carries in all but two games last year.

Charles emerged as the Chiefs' MVP last year, averaging 20 carries and 121 rushing yards once hit he the starting lineup at mid-season. The projection above accounts for Jones in slightly more than a Willis McGahee-type short-yardage/inside role, giving Charles just under 14 carries per contest. Throw in three receptions per week and it's enough to leave Charles as a borderline RB1.

Make no mistake, Sparano and coordinator Dan Henning both love a run-heavy, ball-control offense. Chad Henne's increased pass attempts over the second half of the season can be traced to Ronnie Brown's Lisfranc fracture, turning the potent 1-2 punch into a leg-draining one-man Ricky show.

Brown was pronounced 100 percent upon entering camp, and he immediately opened the first preseason game as the starter. He carried the ball 214 times in 16 games two years ago, and that's a good model for this season provided he stays healthy. Even at age 33, Williams may be able to approach last season's impressive percentage numbers. His carries, though, will drop back down to the 10-12 range per week.

Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker are as respected as any trio in the game, so the running game gets left behind in the Patriots' heavy-spread offense, right? Not so much. The four-man backfield committee has finished in the top-10 in the league in rushing attempts in each of the past two seasons.

Maroney is the favorite for carries if only because he has the youngest legs by nearly a decade. If we've learned anything about Bill Belichick, though, we know that he plays to his personnel depending on matchups. The game plan is a guessing game from week to week, and Maroney could very well start out behind Taylor and Morris for a second straight season. I wouldn't count on any of the backs topping a dozen carries in a game if they're all suited up and healthy.

We knew going in that Ryan would hitch his wagon to the running game. Throw in a rookie quarterback and a dominant run-blocking line, and you have the makings of the most skewed run-to-pass ratio in the league. With Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes now in the Big Apple, Mark Sanchez's training wheels will begin to come off this year. Ryan is on record as suggesting the "ground 'n' pound" will balance out in 2010.

Greene, Ryan's new bell cow, will be the primary runner on early downs, but there will be a concerted effort to keep him healthy after the bumps and scrapes of his rookie season. Even if we expect the Jets' rushing attempts to decrease, there are still enough carries around for Tomlinson to touch the ball 10 times a week in a passing-down role.

It's hard to get a read on Cable's tendencies. He's been hamstrung with JaMarcus Russell at quarterback and a patchwork offensive line. One would think the former line coach's loyalty would be to the ground game, but last year saw a tremendous dropoff in both rushing attempts and ratio. He should have a better shot at balance this year with Jason Campbell and an improved defense.

Cable has given mixed signals on his intentions for the backfield, mentioning both a tandem attack and a "best man wins" competition. Bush is clearly a stronger inside runner while McFadden operates much better in space. My gut tells me McFadden is in for a breakout season, but Bush is the safe bet to lead this team in carries. Create your own fantasy league.

Job security. Mendenhall has it. By my count, the Steelers' starter is one of only seven every-down backs in the NFL heading into the 2010 season. Moore is a pure backup, best utilized as a two-minute drill specialist. Dwyer's training camp has been just short of disastrous. Redman is picking up buzz for the second straight August, but he didn't even make the team after starring in preseason action last year. This is Mendenhall's backfield. He's a strong RB1 with star potential.

Turner has traditionally boasted a stellar ground game with a designated feature back carrying the load. LaDainian Tomlinson's decline phase and a poor run-blocking offensive line were difficult hurdles to overcome last season. We should start to see a turnaround this year with fresh legs in the backfield.

Mathews was drafted as the successor to franchise icon Tomlinson, and he'll step right in as the lead back and a borderline RB1. Sproles is arguably the most effective and explosive passing-down back in the league, so his role figures to stay the same. Keep an eye on Tolbert as a short-yardage vulture. He ran as the first-team tailback at the goal-line in the preseason opener.

The NFL's longest-tenured head coach is a throw-back in facial hair and offensive philosophy. Johnson isn't a prototypical smashmouth back in the vain of "three yards and a cloud of dust" Eddie George, but he held up just fine to a league-leading 358 carries. The O-Line, already one of the league's elite units, actually upgraded on the interior.

Johnson's transformation from exciting RB1 to "CJ2K" coincided with Vince Young's ascension to the starting lineup and LenDale White's banishment to the bench. With White out of the picture altogether, Ringer is more of a pure backup as opposed to a battering ram complement. Johnson is a good bet to the lead the NFL in carries for a second straight season. Be sure to grab Ringer as a "handcuff."

Chris Wesseling is a senior football editor and Dynasty league analyst for Rotoworld.com. The 2011 NFL season marks his fifth year with Rotoworld and his third year contributing to NBCSports.com. He can be found on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.Email :Chris Wesseling