UK PM May's Conservatives see poll lead narrow again

As polling day nears, Betfair Politics prices a Conservative Majority outcome at 1.16 (86% chance), against a "No Overall Majority" result at 8.6 (11% chance of outcome).

The betting markets are often a good pointer in regards to who is most likely to win an election, however as the recent US Election did show us the red hot favourite is not necessarily the one who will win, as there is no way of being able to predict who will be the victor of any election held anywhere in the world until all of the votes have been counted up. That compares with just 17 in the last parliament and would boost her power base as she prepares for Brexit.

"Her support appears to have plunged after the poor reception of the party manifesto, including plans to make more elderly voters pay for home care", the newspaper said.

At least 326 seats are needed to hold the majority in the House of Commons.

The Economist backed the Conservative Party of former prime minister David Cameron in 2015, but refused to support successor Theresa May due to her hardline stance on Brexit and immigration. Pollsters are correcting their models, but were doing so with an eye to the next election in 2020.

Research by YouGov indicated that Prime Minister Theresa May could lose her parliamentary majority at the general election next week, causing sterling to drop 0.6 per cent against the dollar during Asian trading hours. The result pushed the pound lower and provoked anger in Tory campaign headquarters, with two of May's most senior election strategists taking the rare step of publicly attacking the company.

In the strongest signal yet that the election is much closer than previously thought, May's lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election. Tony Blair won his landslide in 1997 with 43 percent of the vote.

"The pound has managed to hold up fairly well despite another poll showing a narrow lead for the Conservative Party, as the focus returns to the United Kingdom economy", said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, in a note.

He states: "The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions". Such a lead indicates the Tories would secure a majority.

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