Potential Tropical Cyclone Moves Up the Carolina Coast

We’re heading into the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is usually most active from late August through early October, and we’re definitely seeing an uptick in activity.

While Harvey will continue to bring rainfall to the coast of Texas through Wednesday, another tropical storm is impacting the Carolina Coast. A tropical disturbance currently off the coast of the Carolinas is producing winds as strong as a tropical storm.

The disturbance has yet to show the organization of a tropical cyclone though, instead consisting of a mass of showers and storms off the East Coast. Since it has proved to still be a powerful system the National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories along the coast.

The storm will hug the coast of North Carolina Tuesday before moving out to sea by Wednesday.

The latest advisory in full from the National Hurricane Center is below:

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered over Pamlico
Sound near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 75.8 West. The system
is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and it is
expected to accelerate further toward the northeast and
east-northeast during the next couple of days. The disturbance is
forecast to move off the coast of North Carolina later today and
then move away from the coast over the western Atlantic Ocean
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength
until it begins to move away from the coast of North Carolina
tonight, and it is not likely to become a tropical cyclone.
Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, and heavy rains are
still possible over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina
for the next few hours. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen
at sea and become a hurricane-force extratropical low over the
northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the
warning area through this afternoon.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches
along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts
into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in
some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.