Jumat, 20 Juli 2012

Actually that Economics was not be able to predict the coming of the Great Depression of 1930, the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, US Economic Recession on 2007 and European debt crisis

Writing
by Karyadi Ukay: Predictions and
Expectations on the Koran KONTAN, April 7, 2009.

Comment
by Edmond F. La'lang (economic and environment observer)

For example, the 1930's great depression in
America is really beyond belief by economists. After the stock market crash of
1929, economists still believe that economy not have experienced a substantial
decline. In fact, in late 1931, when the economy is actually in the state of very
serious, economists of the caliber of Irving Fisher predicted that the economy
will recover quickly. In reality, these predictions are far from the truth.
Something similar happened in Indonesia. Before the economic crisis that began
in mid 1997, many economists predict that the economy is fine. They are
offering a number of economic indicators to show that Indonesia's economic
fundamentals are still strong.

In my
opinion, also on the 1997 Asian Economic Crisis, US Economic Recession on 2007
and of course European debt crisis at the moment with these realities, should
economists began to realize whats wrong with my knowledge economy? And began to
clean themselves against the various theories, simulation, engineering
assumptions and calculations econometrics, mathematics and statistics
(linear low-dimensional or 1) for complexity with higher-dimensional
methods (2 - 3 dimensions) and by incorporating various elements of the complex nature of
the humanist human biological (biocycle), mental (affectionate, spirited
social / pilantrophic, courage, conscience, honesty, egoism, greed, knights),
psychological (worries, nervousness, depression, panic, excitement, enthusiasm,
excitement), environment ( ecosystems, biological and non biological resources,
forest dynamics, meteorological cycles), social (culture, customs, social
systems) and political (government party) to develop a true, accurate, and
especially the direction of the "science of bio - economic dynamics"
and "bio - quantum mathematics".

Conversely, in some cases, the grim predictions about the economy began
not as sordid as described. Therefore, the parties interested in the results of
the economic projections in the future, need to scrutinize the various economic
forecasts offered the forecaster. Please remember, the validity of the
predictions of forecasters depends on used and selection of models and
assumptions about exogenous variables. But we think it should be a prediction
should give some guidance forecasting validity, meaning not a perception but a
"certainty of reality that should and must take place" by providing a
clear picture of the economic projections in the future. Apply the model with
various assumptions that makes a prediction becomes invalid and unrealistic,
because the assumption is simply the result of thought and perception
forecaster who often do not correspond to the real conditions of the current
economy and in the future, so it makes the results of their predictions
"are not valid and reliable ", and will continue to be revised.

In my opinion is often this
assumption is only physical and superficial without recognizing the reality of
mental complexity and the human mind and the power of the natural environment
that will always affect all human activities in the world that produces a
harmonious interaction and synergy between humans and the natural environment.
Keep in mind that the economy is a physical method and linear (say the program
Windows 1990) are human beings and nature are complex, living (biological) and
metaphysical (program Windows 2020) is of course difficult to read by the
econometric results in a failure to properly read and accurately all the human
and natural dynamics in economics, business, social, political and environment
that led to the failure of economists to detect tsunamis and the recession and
financial fund global economic deflation. Thus the economists would be hard to
find the best way to resolve the problem of world economic recession in a
timely, targeted, measurable and reliable method using linieristic.

Finally, the economic recovery
will occur that is not the result of economists' prescriptions, but the
fighting spirit and the global human efforts to recover according to the
strains of biocycle and economic fluctuations are strongly influenced by the
strength of dimension 2-4. Failure of the method of economics is what makes
them not mention the decline and economic stagnation as a give rise to
uncertainties and risks that can not be controlled by humans. Though life is
full of certainty if humans can live in harmony with God, nature and each other
to always adhere to the law abiding principle of his Lord, and the natural
world. God has created the natural complexity of this system to be studied,
researched, developed and expanded by the human brain for human survival for
generations to avoid economic disasters, natural disasters, catastrophic
illness, catastrophic social and political disaster in the world.

Economics has limitations in
responding to the socio-economic problems that occur in society.
In our opinion, this is obvious, because the economics are simple to use method
is linear dynamics and human nature is diverse and complex. Therefore,
economists (who are aware of it) would be very careful in making projections
and economic policy advice. Obviously yes, because the economics no longer
grip, especially with the more open and dynamic global economy and
interdependent, interacting and integrating it is needed urgently and
fundamentally to change the paradigm of economics. Otherwise, this will keep
many economists forecasting and business failures in the future. To be a
reliable forecaster (always correct predictions) and worldwide, needed a method
of bio-economic complex, the use of larger brains with EQ (15%), EQ (35%) and
SQ (50%), power is far ahead visoner , open mind, open heart, open hand and
open pocket (or philantrophic social life). So the world of university
graduates (Harvard, Stanford, Cambridge) with Summa cum laude (with 4.0 with an
IQ above 120an), is not a guarantee that he can perform forecasting and economic
policy making and business appropriately and brilliant, as evidenced by the
destruction of the Wall Street created an economy filled with heroes - the
business capital of the method of mathematics, statistics and advanced
econometrics. The opposite can be seen from the success of some global
investors like George Soros, Warren Buffet, Sam Pendelton, A. Fessant, and others
can achieve big gains and has a major influence on world stock markets and
money, without having to base their investment decisions on a micro and macro
economic forecast of the forecaster on Wall Street, but using other sciences
(physics, chemistry, psychology, biology and so on) is not based on
economic science.

Foot note :

Fluctuations in short-term (daily and weekly) will occur naturally
influenced by state of mentality, passion, taste, motivation of global mass
psychology to take trading positions in a market that is crowded and often
chaotic. If there is data or news that very fundamental economic conditions,
business and politics, fluctuations in stock price movements will occur
dynamically and both meteoric and volatile free fall in excess of the daily forecast.
But in the medium and long-term investment will be influenced dynamically by
biocycle and biorhytmic of legal and natural forces are always moving up and
down dynamically. So you not only have to Globalization with Globalnet (internet system)
but also now should have a vision in a way Galaxization with Galaxinet * *
(Astronomical).

Where
we can know the strains and the condition of the Universe Kingdom
in the short term (10 years), medium term of 50 years and long term
100-200
years), which will also be evident in a "Certainty of Life rather than
Uncertainty Life " who always complained of many
parties, including the leaders of the state policy makers, leaders of
business
policy (industrialists and traders) as well as experts in various fields
of
life. The power and influence of Natural, Galaxy and Universe Law
(Universe Kingdom / Source One in Central Sun Universe) this will
always
affect every aspect of our lives on this planet, either consciously or
unconsciously to anticipate properly.

About Me

I am a Fishery Biologist and have an MBA in Industrial Management with experiences in Forex, Stocks and Commodity since 1997. My vision is midterm and longterm for investment driven and shortterm trading. This support with experiences in Socioeconomic & Land Mapping Survey and Region Planning Report, so that I have Long Vision in Biocycle Dynamic Mechanism on Human Life Activities, include Econobusiness Biocycle Dynamic or Natural Bio-Economic that based on Natural Law Driven.This method can be accurate and finely to know and predicted on Economic, Business, Technology, Social, Politic and Life Environment whats going on in the Future (midterm 1 - 5 years and longterm 5 - 25 years)