NEWS ANALYSIS: Election 2012 winners, losers (Medfield Press)

After every election, there’s an assessment of who won and lost on Election Day. Yes, Barack Obama secured a second term and Mitt Romney now likely recedes into private life. But beyond the candidates, who or what emerges from this election in a stronger or weaker position?

By Dr. Kenneth L. Manning

Wicked Local

By Dr. Kenneth L. Manning

Posted Nov. 8, 2012 at 12:01 AM
Updated Nov 8, 2012 at 8:13 AM

By Dr. Kenneth L. Manning

Posted Nov. 8, 2012 at 12:01 AM
Updated Nov 8, 2012 at 8:13 AM

MEDFIELD

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After every election, there’s an assessment of who won and lost on Election Day. Yes, Barack Obama secured a second term and Mitt Romney now likely recedes into private life. But beyond the candidates, who or what emerges from this election in a stronger or weaker position?

WINNERS

JEB BUSH

The dirty little (not-so-secret) secret of 2012 was that the Bushies did not want Romney to win. A Romney victory would have dashed Jeb’s plans to run for the White House in 2016. But with no incumbent Republican running in 2016, the GOP field will now be wide open for Jeb Bush to run and possibly redeem the family name that was made toxic by his younger brother. What’s more, the former Florida governor’s history as a Republican with appeal to Latino voters means he could have the opportunity save the GOP from its self-inflicted demographic disadvantage. Other than Obama, Jeb Bush could well be the single biggest winner in this election.

OBAMACARE

There’s simply no denying that Obama delivered on a long-sought Democratic Party dream. He got health care reform passed by Congress, approved by the Supreme Court, and now he will be in charge for four more years to see it fully implemented. Obama’s 2012 electoral victory cements his health care triumph for the ages, a policy transformation of the highest order.

SOCIAL LIBERALISM

Gay rights, marijuana, reproductive rights: on most salient social issues on the ballot yesterday, the traditionalistic position lost. Yes, physician assisted suicide lost narrowly in Massachusetts. But medical marijuana won decisively. What’s more, these victories are occurring via the ballot, not judicial fiat — conservatives cannot pin these social issue defeats on elitist judges isolated from public opinion.

POLITICAL SCIENCE

Can anyone now seriously question the application of advanced statistical methods to modern politics? Nate Silver, the driving force behind the widely-read political blog fivethirtyeight.com, was the go-to guy for polling data and election predictions in 2012. A number of pundits scoffed at Silver’s sophisticated mathematics when the data didn’t align with their political “feelings.” In the end, however, Silver proved the pundits wrong when his state-by-state prediction of the outcome of the race turned out to be right on the money.

SENATE DEMOCRATS

Democrats capitalized well on numerous GOP missteps. When Republicans made it clear they would block the nomination of Elizabeth Warren to head the new Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, she instead ran for the Senate and took on Scott Brown. We now know how well that worked out for the GOP. From eyebrow-raising comments on rape to hard-right positions out of step with many voters, Republican mistakes cost the party plenty.

Page 2 of 2 - PAUL RYAN

Even though he missed ascending to the vice president position, the author of the controversial GOP House budget plan was propelled into the national spotlight by his elevation to the 2012 ticket. Though his resume was a bit thin for the VP position, he proved to be a skilled politician. Ryan exits the race poised to possibly assume an even higher leadership position on the Hill, run for the Senate later this decade, or even perhaps make a White House bid of his own.

LOSERS

PAUL RYAN

“Wait!” you say, “Isn’t Ryan a winner?” Ryan won and lost. Ryan lost because his budget, which was the fiscal framework for today’s GOP, is now dead, since it is Obama who will be driving the fiscal bus until 2017. What’s more, Ryan’s reputation as being trustworthy on budget matters took a real hit. Experts delved into his budget numbers and discovered lots of inconsistencies and dubious assumptions.

KARL ROVE

The GOP operative raised and spent hundreds of millions of secret campaign funds, yet after it was all over, he had nothing to show for it. Will fat cats continue to write enormous checks to a guy who so consistently underperforms expectations? Well, the Yankees are likely to re-sign Alex Rodriguez, so the answer is probably “yes.”

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU

By meddling in the U.S. election and doing all he could to undermine Obama, no one has done more in recent years to try to turn Israel into a partisan U.S. political issue. Israel is a close U.S. ally, but in this election, the Israeli prime minister showed himself to be deeply short-sighted.

THE 2001 BUSH TAX CUTS

They will remain for folks with incomes below $250K, but the joy ride is probably over for upper income people. The tax cuts are due to expire on Dec. 31, 2012, and Obama’s win virtually assures their demise.

THE TEA PARTY

2012 was the second electoral cycle where lackluster, extremist candidates cost the GOP control of the U.S. Senate. How big of a mistake was this by the Republican Party? We’ll have a better idea once we know how many more Supreme Court justices Obama nominates and the Senate confirms.

Dr. Kenneth L. Manning is a Medfield resident and a professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth.