Klarman Says Do Fight the Fed

Most U.S. investors today have a clear opinion about what everyone else has no choice but to do. Which is to say, with bonds yielding next to nothing, the only way investors have a chance of earning a return is to buy stocks. Everyone knows this, and is counting on it to remain the case. While economist David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff believes government actions could be directly or indirectly responsible for as many as 500 points in the S&P 500, or 30% of its current valuation, traders have confidence in Ben Benanke because betting that his policies will drive equities higher has been a profitable wager. Bernanke, likewise, is undoubtedly pleased with these speculators for abetting his goal of asset price inflation, though we all know that he will not call them first when he decides to reverse direction on QE.Then, the rush for the exits will be madness, as today's "clarity" will have dissolved, leaving only great uncertainty and probably significant losses.

Investing, when it looks the easiest, is at its hardest. When just about everyone heavily invested is doing well, it is hard for others to resist jumping in. But a market relentlessly rising in the face of challenging fundamentals—recession in Europe and Japan, slowdown in China, fiscal stalemate and high unemployment in the U.S.—is the riskiest environment of all.

InvestSMART Publishing Pty Ltd holds Australian Financial Securities Licence (AFSL) 282288.
The content of this website is general in nature and does not take the personal situation of any user of this website into consideration.
A user of this website should seek financial advice specific to that user’s situation before making any financial decision.
Past performance of any security or financial product is not a reliable indicator of future performance. InvestSMART Publishing Pty Ltd
encourages users of this website to view investing as a long-term pursuit.