Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Vietnam's Prime Minister Survives Challenge

HANOI—Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung survived a leadership
challenge Monday as he struggles to stabilize the country's foundering
economy, but he and other top leaders now face growing pressure from a
new and pervasive threat here: the Internet.

Ruling Communist Party Secretary-General Nguyen Phu Trong
acknowledged in a televised broadcast that the party had mishandled the
management of Vietnam's economy, which is now facing mounting bad debts
and slowing growth rates that are taking the shine off what had been
one of Asia's brightest economic success stories. Speaking at the end
of a two-week meeting that analysts viewed as a judgment on Mr. Dung's
performance, Mr. Trong urged the Politburo, the country's top
policy-making body, to overcome its weaknesses and exert stronger
leadership.

Mr. Dung wasn't mentioned by name, but analysts say it was a
scorching rebuke for a man who has built a considerable power base in
the government and bureaucracy since being appointed in 2006, and the
verdict will likely spread more power among other key Politburo
members. The prime minister couldn't be reached to comment.

Indeed, the meeting triggered
widespread speculation about how long Mr. Dung, 62 years old, could
survive as prime minister of this tightly controlled state after a
series of economic missteps, including the bankruptcy of state-owned
shipbuilder Vinashin in 2010 and several currency devaluations.

And, in what could become a recurring
problem for Vietnam's rigid Communist hierarchy, much of the
speculation and criticism came from a series of popular new Internet
sites.

The most influential of these sites
appeared five months ago. Called Quan Lam Bao, or Officials Doing
Journalism, its anonymous contributors purported to provide an inside
track on the goings-on at the highest echelons of power in Vietnam with
a distinctly tabloid flair.

Reuters

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung

Quan
Lam Bao's first posts detailed the alleged love lives of leading party
figures, and then reported the arrest of banking executives implicated
in financial scandals before their detentions were widely known. More
recently, users have logged on to the site to lay into Mr. Dung.
Typical posts describe Mr. Dung as "a parasite" or "a dictator," or
else attempt to ridicule his record during Vietnam's war with the
United States by calling him a nurse, among other things.

Mr. Dung wasted little time in
responding. Last month he ordered police to investigate Quan Lam Bao
and two other websites and shut them down for publishing misleading
articles, while a government statement described them as part of a
"wicked plot" planned by "hostile forces"—a term frequently used here
to describe pro-democracy activists. Separately, three prominent
bloggers were sentenced to lengthy prison terms in what analysts say
was an attempt to scare off Internet users from breaking the country's
strict laws by calling for multiparty democracy or challenging the
authorities of the Communist Party.

The sites, though, continued to draw wide attention, driven in part
by their controversial allegations, and the approach of a crucial
Communist Party meeting to determine Mr. Dung's fate and discuss ways
to inject fresh vim into Vietnam's sputtering economy.

"The success of these Internet sites
is a failure of the Communist Party to make itself transparent," said
Nguyen Quang A, one of Vietnam's best-known economists and the founder
of its only independent think tank, before it was disbanded three years
ago. "Now the Internet is amplifying the rumors because people think
that what they read is true," he said. The Internet is playing an
increasingly important role in Vietnamese life.

Around 34% of the country's 90 million
people are online, a greater proportion than in neighboring countries
such as Thailand and Indonesia, and there are over 110 million
registered cellular phones. Digital activists and independent analysts
say ordinary Vietnamese frequently turn to the Internet to get a better
idea of what is going on in the country because of extensive state
control of mainstream television broadcasters and newspapers.

Analysts say Vietnam's leaders are wary of the impact of the
Internet, and closely observed the spread of Arab Spring uprisings
across the Middle East and North Africa last year. Today, only China
detains more Internet users, according to Reporters Without Borders.

Vietnam's economic slowdown also encourages people to make their
voices heard. A persistent double-digit inflation prompted the
government to sharply raise interest rates last year, stalling bank
lending and stifling the rest of the economy. This year the government
expects the economy to grow 5.5%, well off its customary 7%-plus growth
rates in recent years.

At the same time, some Vietnamese are growing more concerned about
whether their land will be reallocated when a series of land-right
agreements expire over the next couple of years. Already there have
been several violent clashes as security forces attempt to evict
farmers. In Vietnam, the state owns all land, and the government
distributed large plots in land-use agreements 20 years ago and which
are now expiring.

"People are much more willing to express their dissatisfaction now,
and often go online to do it," said Maria Patrikainen, an analyst with
IHS Global Analysis in London, who adds that the government now has to
perform a difficult balancing act between allowing a degree of
criticism, and protecting its own standing in the country.

"There is a lot of frustration, and this is a long-term problem the Party has to face," she said.