Should we be Paying to Play MMOs in 2014?

The State of the MMO Genre in 2014.

By Luke Karmali

If 2012 was the year the sub fee appeared to be in serious trouble amid a swath of free-to-play conversions, then 2013 was the year developers dug their heels in and refused to abandon the model. Despite popular opinion and the apparent trends of the industry, both The Elder Scrolls Online and WildStar announced they will be launching with subscription fees; given the battering such an approach took in the previous 12 months, this is a clear declaration of intent by the industry. Despite assumptions the sub model was preparing to keel over, we could be about to see a resurgence in a business model that many were ready to write off.

In the case of Final Fantasy XIV, the reason was made clear by producer Naoki Yoshida. He asserted that sub fees offer a reassurance of quality for players and, given the car crash that was the original Final Fantasy XIV, this wasn’t an association the developer could afford to shun. It also enables developers to plan ahead, confident in the knowledge they have funds to support the creation of new servers and server maintenance for the foreseeable future (which is exactly the argument The Elder Scrolls Online devs have taken when pressed on the matter). When Yoshida took his stand, his words elicited a barrage of naysaying, with everyone predicting the demise of both the MMO and Square Enix itself. What actually happened was very different.

Though many were critical of the decision to keep the sub fee, the fact it’s worked out proves that the demand is there if the game is good enough.

Though it actually released in 2012, 2013 was the year in which Guild Wars 2 found its niche, when ArenaNet adopted a policy of fortnightly updates to its Living Story. When this was first announced it wasn’t just ambitious, it was practically unbelievable. People merrily scoffed at the barefaced cheek ArenaNet had in showing such ambition and speculated when it would inevitably renege on its promise. It never did. The argument many posit, therefore, is that if a triple-A MMO can exist without a sub fee and churn out content faster than those that do dip into their customers’ pockets every month, surely that suggests the only people subscription fees benefit are greedy game publishers?

Well, no, but not necessarily for the reason you may think. While the positive to take from the Guild Wars 2 model is that no subscription fee and regular updates can exist, the downside is it removes the compulsion to play. It’s like being a member of a gym - if I’m paying for membership I’m more likely to go. Unlike with many other MMOs, there’s nothing lost if I don’t log in. Sure, that may sound like a good thing, but is it really? If I log into Guild Wars 2 now after six months of not playing, I’ve missed out on 13 updates where the world and the story have all moved on, and as a result there’s an overwhelming disconnect leaving me not knowing what to do next. In this scenario, I’ll log out without looking back, especially as there’s no subscription fee to write off. MMOs live and die by their communities, so if I abandon friends and server-mates, they’re much more likely to do the same. Before you know it the entire game can be suffering from ‘domino disconnect’, for want of a better term. For now it seems Guild Wars 2 is still going strong, but it’s certainly a scenario that must be considered.

If the golden goose of MMO sub fees is beginning to struggle, what hope does that leave for the rest of the industry?

Crucially though, there’s a caveat to note about Guild Wars 2’s success. While it’s undoubtedly down to ArenaNet’s commitment to providing fresh content, it also stems from the fact the game was always conceived as thriving on microtransactions, built from the ground up to flourish without the predictable income a sub fee provides. The result is a game that implements monetisation methods in a manner that feels both less intrusive and exploitative than in the converted sub games we saw in 2012. One only needs to look at Star Wars: The Old Republic’s disastrous original conversion to free-to-play in order to see the obstacles faced when a sub game tries to crowbar new money streams in where none were originally planned.

But is the writing on the wall for the sub model, despite the best efforts of developers and publishers? This year saw even World of Warcraft - the game which still boasts more concurrent subscribers than most MMOs will see in their lifetimes - add an in-game cash shop to the game client. Though it was poorly received, it’s essentially just an extension of what Blizzard has offered on its site for the past couple of years. But the desire to increase the visibility of the store is telling. Is it driven by a simple desire to consolidate all purchasing options in one place, or is the company attempting to double dip in a bid to keep revenue streams stable while subscriber numbers fall? We know there are no plans for the game to go free-to-play in the near future, with the argument again being it isn’t designed that way, but if the golden goose of MMO sub fees is beginning to struggle, what hope does that leave for the rest of the industry?

A question often asked by those unhappy with the idea of monthly payments is why new MMOs don’t launch with lower sub fees, undercutting WoW and keeping the market competitive. When I spoke to Turbine founder and current Carbine executive producer Jeremy Gaffney, he explained the standard $15/month model netted developers a 50 percent profit once running costs are removed. “Suppose you drop your sub price down to $10 a month?” he mused. “Well, you just cut your profit from $7.50 a user to $2.50 a user. You’re making a third as much profit, which means you need to make three times as many users play your game if you’re going to make the same amount of profit. Is that going to happen?”

It’s like being a member of a gym - if I’m paying for membership I’m more likely to go.

The answer, predictably, is no. Lowering sub fees isn’t going to happen. But once again, Warcraft’s mere existence serves to muddy the waters. By virtue of its longevity, all the additions made over the years make it the best value MMO on the market. Its rivals are caught between a rock and a hard place, appearing too costly when they offer only a fraction of the content, yet unable to lower sub fees lest they operate at a loss.

Which brings us, at last, to the question of The Elder Scrolls Online. The combination of a big franchise and long development time meant that it was always going to charge a sub fee, yet the reaction to this has been less than positive, especially among the console audience. Attracted by the success of Skyrim, but turned off by sub fees, the situation’s only made murkier by the continuing uncertainty over whether you’ll need to pay for Xbox Live Gold or PS Plus in addition to your monthly payments.

At this time I’m not going to dive into whether The Elder Scrolls Online will succeed or not, but it is important to acknowledge the ripples its fate will have on the genre and its business models. This is the one we’re all looking at - publishers, media and consumers alike - to see whether the sub fee is still a viable business practice. With a big franchise behind it and huge interest, this is the game we’re all expecting to provide a definitive answer on whether the sub fee still has a place in modern MMO gaming.

It won’t, is the thing. It simply can’t. Echoing Matt Mocarski’s words from earlier, if it fails, that doesn’t mean the sub fee is no good. It means the game isn’t. I still maintain the sub fee has a place and we’ll continue to see it for years to come. Whether a proper resurgence is in the offing does depend on how TESO fares, however (and it’s worth noting that success isn’t 12 million subscribers – a million is more than enough to keep you in business for years. WoW’s success has warped expectations on the consumer and publisher sides alike.)

Quite what the next 12 months will hold isn’t clear, but one thing’s for certain - while it’s unlikely the next year will be the one that sees the sub model sink once and for all, that’s by no means a guarantee that we’ll see it swim either.

Luke Karmali is IGN's UK Junior Editor and longtime MMO fan. You too can revel in mediocrity by following him on Twitter.