Hurricane Hunters to check out remains of Fred; 98L more organized

A tropical disturbance (98L), is located midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance has shown a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity over the past day. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an elongated circulation, with top winds around 30 mph. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures are 28°C, which is about 2°C above the 26°C threshold needed to support a tropical cyclone. There is a large amount of dry air to the north and west of 98L, and this dry air is interfering with development.

Wind shear over 98L is expected to remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, through Sunday evening, according to the SHIPS model. This may allow the storm to organize into a tropical depression, assuming it can fight off the dry air that surrounds it. By Monday, the SHIPS model predicts shear will increase to the high range, 15 - 30 knots, so in is unlikely 98L will become anything stronger thatn a weak tropical storm over the coming 5-day period. The models predict that a strong trough of low pressure will turn 98L to the northwest and then north beginning on Monday, with the result that 98L misses the Lesser Antilles Islands by at least 500 miles. NHC is giving 98L a high (greater than 50%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. At this time, it does not appear that 98L will ever threaten any land areas.

Fred-exThe remains of Hurricane Fred are still spinning away about 700 miles east of Florida. There has been a modest increase in heavy thunderstorm activity on the south side of Fred's circulation over the past day, but high wind shear and dry air have kept the thunderstorms from building over Fred's center. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, and there is substantial dry air surrounding ex-Fred on all sides. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed top winds of 30 mph.

None of the computer models develop ex-Fred, and conditions for development are expected to remain marginal over the next three days, with wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and plenty of dry air around. Most of the models predict ex-Fred should move over Florida on Tuesday, but steering currents may weaken early next week, and ex-Fred could end up slowing down and turning northwest towards South Carolina. A hurricane hunter aircraft this afternoon was cancelled.

Twenty years ago todayOn September 19, 1989, Hurricane Hugo moved away from Puerto Rico, and headed northwest at 15 mph. An upper-level low over Georgia, in combination with the steering currents imparted by the Azores-Bermuda High, were responsible for the northwesterly motion of the storm. Wind shear from strong upper-level winds continued to weaken the hurricane, and Hugo diminished to a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.

We should not discuss religion on this blog. It is not the correct forum for such discussion. Passions run too deeply in religious matters. If any of you have read my bio, you know I teach Cultural Anthropology, which of course encompasses religious practices. If any of you would like to ask questions, off-blog, I shall be glad to share my papers with you. Most have been written in German, Norwegian or Swedish, but I shall glady translate them. We should NOT discuss anything here on this blog, please. I am sure most of you would agree.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.

The second commandment would not allow for any hurricane tracking: "You shall not make for yourself any carved image, or any likeness of anything that is in heaven above, or that is in the earth beneath, or that is in the water under the earth" LOL.

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.

Fairly bizarre point of view. IMO.

Even if you're not religious, the 10 commandments are pretty good set of rules to live by. Man is a social animal. Basic decency is required to get along with one another.

so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

Thanks Dr. Masters! Tropics are quiet.Local weathermen here in central Fla. are not even mentioning Ex-Fred and it's impact on us.Exactly the reason I come here every morning and eve . I would like to thank all of you on here who help me to learn and understand weather ! You folks rock!

so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

jk

good morning guys

Dude! You're back. You were the topic of conversation this morning! Shows you how bad the tropics are!! We thought you messed-up again.

Name any nation in western civilization which does not have its origins very deeply rooted in the christian faith.

There is no basis whatsoever for laws or morals of any sort outside of God.

If you truly believe the universe is just a cosmic accident, then there is no morality and laws are just as pointless and meaningless as lawlessness. Everyone should just do whatever they think they can get away with, as without God, there is no rational basis for anything else.

This is sort of like the "subjective truth/morality" thing. "what's right for you might not be right for me..." they say.

If people truly believe that, then they are hypocrites if they prosecute criminals.

Don't be rediculous. Morals were around long before religion, and are based on empathy, not some outdated rule book which no one really follows. There are Amazon tribes who have never heard of any god who have similar morals to everyone else. As to your first point, um, the USA?

Sorry, I don't want to clutter the blog with idiot religious rantings. If you want to discuss this, feel free to PM me.

'Disasters don't strike on government's timetable,' said Mark Shriver, chairman of the National Commission on Children and Disasters.

The National Commission on Children and Disasters last week approved its 90-page interim report to President Barack Obama and Congress. The report identifies several shortcomings in disaster preparedness, response and recovery and provides recommendations designed to place children uppermost in future disaster planning efforts.

The recommendations include creating a national evacuee tracking and family reunification system, providing a safe and secure mass shelter environment for children, improving the capacity for child-care services in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and ensuring that health-care professionals have adequate training in "pediatric disaster medicine."

"The most vulnerable Americans in the most vulnerable settings are made even more vulnerable by government inaction," said Mark Shriver, chairman of the commission. "Disasters don't strike on government's timetable, which means the time for government to act is now."

Quoting jurakantaino: Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.

Look at post 1475, the CFS' shear forecast lowers the shear while there's an upward MJO.

HOUSTON, Sept. 10 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Advances in the fight againstfood poisoning, new methods for delivering medicine to cancer cells, andbetter materials for future spacecraft are among the results published in aNASA report detailing scientific research accomplishments made aboard theInternational Space Station during its first eight years.

(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/20081007/38461LOGO)

The report includes more than 100 science experiments ranging from bonestudies to materials' research.

"This report represents a record of science accomplishments during assemblyand summarizes peer-reviewed publications to date," said Julie Robinson,program scientist for the station at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston."As we enter the final year of station assembly, this report highlights thecapabilities and opportunities for space station research after assembly iscomplete."

One of the most compelling results reported is the confirmation that theability of common germs to cause disease increases during spaceflight, butthat changing the growth environment of the bacteria can control thisvirulence. The Effect of Spaceflight on Microbial Gene Expression andVirulence experiment identified increased virulence of space-flown Salmonellatyphimurium, a leading cause of food poisoning. New research on subsequentstation missions will target development of a vaccine for this widespreadmalady.

Another experiment produced a potential medical advance, demonstrating a newand powerful method for delivering drugs to targets in the human body.Microgravity research on the station was vital to development of miniature,liquid-filled balloons the size of blood cells that can deliver medicinedirectly to cancer cells. The research was conducted for theMicroencapsulation Electrostatic Processing System experiment.

One of the most prolific series of investigations aboard the station tests howspacecraft materials withstand the harsh space environment. The results of theMaterials International Space Station Experiment already have been used todevelop solar cells for future commercial station cargo ships. This experimenthas significantly reduced the time needed to develop new satellite systems,such as solar cells and insulation materials, and paved the way for materialsto be used in new NASA spacecraft such as the Orion crew capsule.

The report compiles experiment results collected from the first 15 stationmissions, or expeditions, from 2000 to 2008. Results of some of the summarizedinvestigations are complete. Preliminary results are available from othercontinuing investigations.

NASA's research activities on the station span several scientific areas,including exploration technology development; microgravity research in thephysical and biological sciences; human physiology research; Earth science andeducation.

The report details 22 different technology demonstrations; 33 physical scienceexperiments; 27 biological experiments; 32 experiments focused on the humanbody; Earth observations and educational activities. In addition to scienceimportant to long-duration human spaceflights, most findings also offer newunderstanding of methods or applications relevant to life on Earth.

In 2008, station laboratory space and research facilities tripled with theaddition of the European Space Agency's Columbus Laboratory and the JapanAerospace Exploration Agency's three Kibo scientific modules, adding to thecapabilities already provided in NASA's Destiny Laboratory. In 2009, thenumber of crew members increased from three to six, greatly increasing crewtime available for research.

The stage is set for increased station scientific return when assembly andoutfitting of the research facility is completed in 2010 and its fullpotential as a national and international laboratory is realized. Engineersand scientists from around the world are working together to refineoperational relationships and build on experiences to ensure maximum use ofthe expanded capabilities.

The International Space Station Program Scientist Office at NASA's JohnsonSpace Center published the report. A link to the full NASA TechnicalPublication, which provides an archival record of U.S.-sponsored researchthrough Expedition 15, is available at:

Quoting jurakantaino:I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.

Moore's Law doesn't take into account the wavelength of the electrons used to pass information along. There's only so small you can go. They will be running into this problem in less than 10 years.

Quoting sebastianflorida:who will be the next person to give us a situation that if ex fred does this and that he can make it and hit Florida?

so, given the current atmospheric conditions, the probability of ex fred hitting FL has sky rocketed due to an above normal increase in unexpected seagull activity, which has helped to reduce wind shear........

Well, shear will kill any attempt for system to form in the tropics. So what will be interesting is to see how can a system develop under this hostile conditions on the final 8 weeks of the hurricane season.

Would be neat... But you think it is only 20-30 years away? I would have guessed further away.

I agree with Moore's law, even if it sound like science fiction it will be technologically possible.But first humanity need to survive "self destruction quest". The thirst for power and control of the world among the Nations,will eventually take us to dooms day.