Personal thoughts, opinions and comments of an independent consultant, political analyst and historian, who lives in Ireland but is aware of the whole world.

27 April 2008

The Lisbon Treaty can be defeated

The latest nation-wide opinion poll shows a dramatic swing against the Lisbon Treaty, with the 'Yes' side leading by only 6% when undecided voters are excluded.

The Red C poll in today's edition of the Sunday Business Post has been welcomed by anti-Lisbon campaigners, while the Irish government says the result was "disappointing, but not entirely surprising".Up to now, opinion polls had suggested a two-to-one majority in favour of the treaty.

The poll for the Sunday Business Post says that among those entitled to vote, 35% are backing the Lisbon Treaty, a fall of 8% since the last poll two months ago.31% are opposed to the treaty, an increase of 7%, while 34% - more than one third of voters - do not know what to make of it and are yet undecided.

When those undecideds are excluded, the 'Yes' side leads by 53% to 47%, a very narrow margin with seven weeks to go to polling.

TaoiseachBertie Ahern had confirmed officially during the week that the Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty will be held on Thursday, June 12th. Today, after hearing of the new Red C poll, he said that it "would be disastrous" if the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated. Well, yes, it would be - but only for him, since that would end his hopes of ever becoming the new permanent President of the EU. For Ireland as a country and for every Irish person it would be positive and give us in fact more influence in the political process if the treaty is defeated.

Less scientifically controlled polls are even more in favour of a 'No' vote. On an anti-European website I saw today only 11% were for the treaty, while 83% were against, with 4% undecided and 1% who had no opinion.On this site I also have a poll running with the same question (and it is still open). So far 25% of my readers are for the treaty and 62% against it, while 4% "don't know" and 2% "don't care".

The new Red C poll, as well as the less sophisticated one from this site, reflect clearly the growing unease of many Irish people with the way the new treaty is being pushed and almost forced on Irish people by the major parties and their politicians, with no proper explanations and with the full text of the very important document not available to every voter in the country.

Not long ago our government has sent a copy of the "Rules of the Road" to every household in Ireland, including all houses where there is no car and no-one who drives. Now the government is sending a second booklet to every house, in order to inform us about national "Emergency Planning", with scenarios that will never happen and some that are so unrealistic that they can only be described as pure fiction, or even science fiction.

However, the government does not send a copy of the Lisbon Treaty to every household in Ireland, and for a good reason. TaoiseachBertie Ahern has given the President of the EU Commission, José Manuel Barroso (right, with his friend Bertie), the promise that "Ireland will deliver", so the last thing the government wants is that people will read - and perhaps even understand - the Lisbon Treaty. If they would read and understand the treaty, it would be clear to them that Ireland is losing out in every part of it, giving up rights and entitlements that the nation has had so far. But in order to please the large member states - especially Germany, France and Britain, whose share of influence will grow over-proportionally - our government and the two largest opposition parties are willing to sell out the little share Ireland still has in the EU.

At present, the voting power of Ireland in the European Council (where the 27 member states meet and discuss all important matters) is 2%, which is not much, but simply reflects our size in comparison to the other members. Under the Lisbon Treaty the voting power of Ireland would be reduced by almost two-thirds to a mere 0.8%, which means that we would in future have really no say at all and just sit in the Council as a kind of superflous room decoration.

The Lisbon Treaty would also take away our right to have a permanent EU Commissioner, and we would agree to have no Commissioner for every five years within a cycle of fifteen years. And to shrink our already meager influence even further, we would also lose one of our MEPs, reducing the number of people we elect to the European Parliament from currently 13 (in the Republic) to 12. (There are also two Irish MEPs elected in the North.)

And these are only the most significant points of the treaty. There are a lot more, way too many to list them all here. But having read the text of the Lisbon Treaty - as far as it is available to ordinary people without paying the extortionist sum of € 42 that is charged for a complete copy - I have found not one positive change for Ireland. In fact, the whole treaty is geared to increase the power of the large member states, while the smaller ones - and not only Ireland - are reduced in their influence and participation. It also opens the doors of the union wide for all sorts of privatisation, including in the areas of health, public services and education.

According to the Red C poll, the change in opinion is particularly marked among Ireland's farmers, who seem to have woken up just in time to recognise the damage that the Lisbon Treaty and various options it gives the (unelected) EU Commission in regards to international negotiations will do to them and their businesses.

IFA President Padraig Walshe said this was not surprising as his members are very worried about the position being taken in the World Trade talks by British EU Commissioner (for Trade) Peter Mandelson(left).Well, at present Mr. Mandelsoncan talk as much as he likes, the decisions are still made by all member states together.If a majority of Irish people would vote for the Lisbon Treaty, these safeguards are no longer in place and the EU Commission could do whatever they like, with no democratic control or any mechanism to stop them.

In history it has so far happened only once that a whole nation voted voluntarily and willingly for the total abolition of a democratic republic (as they had it between 1919 and 1933) and the introduction of a dictatorship with absolute powers. This nation was Germany, and the year was 1933. The rest, as they say, is history. The German nation has been paying for their mistake ever since, still is, and will be most likely for several more centuries.

We Irish have lived under foreign rule for 750 years, and partly because we were too divided into tribes in the late 12th century, so we were not able to offer proper armed resistance against the invading Normans. And again - the rest is history.After centuries of suffering and struggle, we achieved limited autonomy 86 years ago. And only 59 years ago we became a fully independent sovereign republic. Has that been too much for the Irish nation? Too much freedom and decision-making? Well, if you want to go back into a state of national hibernation with others deciding what happens and telling us what we can do and what not, then vote for the Lisbon Treaty.

If you, however, like Ireland's freedom, independence and opportunities, and want to keep them also for the future, then there is only one way to vote in the up-coming referendum: No.

Dick Roche (right), wrecker of the Skryne Valley, fool of Beijing and now Minister for European Affairs, said a political campaign will get underway once the referendum bill is through the Oireachtas, and that it is all "very much to play for". Oh yes, Mr. Roche, there is very much to play for. Our all future and happiness, to start with. And as things are looking now, it is possible to defeat you and the Lisbon Treaty (and with it all the selfish and arrogant politicians who want to talk us into voting for it). Let's do it!

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A hundred thousand Welcomes, as we say in Irish.

You are indeed most welcome to my humble weblog, to which I post each day a personal column, reflecting my views, thoughts and opinions of the day. Often the entries will be inspired by events and news from Ireland or abroad. Having lived in various countries before I grew solid roots on the Emerald Isle, I take note of many things that happen on the planet.And I have views and opinions.Please be my guest, read and think, and feel free to leave your personal comments as well. They are as welcome as you are here.On the right you also find some additional information, related to Ireland and other matters, for example books I recommend. From time to time I also have opinion polls and appreciate your participation. And if you like what you read, you can subscribe to my weblog (using the box below) and will receive every new entry automatically.And in case you want to find a specific word or subject - on the world-wide web or on one of my two weblogs - then you don't even have to leave the site. Scroll down to the very bottom and you will find a perfect search engine, powered by Google.

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FACTS ABOUT IRELAND

The Emerald Isle

(also known as Ireland) has been inhabited by humans for at least 10,000 years. This image shows the topographical structure of the island, which was until recent times very important and decided in many cases where the people would build their settlements.The oldest surviving monuments in Ireland date from megalithic times between 5000 and 3500 BCE. About 200 BCE the Celts, familiar with the use of iron, conquered the island.

Around 1000 years later Viking raiders from Norway appeared, and in 914 they built the first city in Ireland, calling it "Vadra Fjord" (safe anchorage), which later became Waterford.In 1169 this city was the first to be taken by the Normans, when they invaded and conquered large parts of the island, including the capital Dublin.

In later centuries Ireland became more known for emigrants, as famine, poverty and oppression drove people out into the world. (About 45 million Americans have Irish ancestry.)However, since the unexpected economic boom (known as the "Celtic Tiger"), which we had for about a dozen years, there are now many immigrants on the Emerald Isle, coming from almost everywhere and turning the once quiet and introvert island into a vibrant international community.

Unfortunately the boom turned out to be only a bubble, based on false hopes, speculation and criminal gambling by reckless bankers. So now we are in a deep economic recession, which is made even worse by our current incompetent government.What will happen to Ireland in the future is hard to say, but it all will depend on making the right political, economic, and social decisions.

There is a realistic chance that Ireland could become a major producer of clean energy, and proposals have been presented already to the government and the public. It will now depend on our politicians to make the right decisions. If they do, then we can have a bright and promising future. If not, Ireland is in danger of becoming a poor third-world country.

Ireland's Countryside

is predominantly green. It is said that there are actually forty different shadesofgreen on the island, but few people go around counting.The landscape is rolling, with drumlins, hills and river valleys, and one is never far from the sea in Ireland.Ancient Stones like the one on this photo can be found in many parts of Ireland. They are the remnants of the old religion, which is once again growing on the Emerald Isle.

Ireland's National Flag

was first introduced during the uprising of 1848 in Waterford, Ireland's oldest city, by Thomas Francis Meagher, a native of the city who later rose to prominence as a Union General (and leader of the famous Irish Brigade) during the American Civil War (1861-65).An Bhratach Náisiúnta, as she is called in Irish, is a vertical (revolutionary) tricoleur, inspired by and modeled on the flag of the French Republic.The colours are green, white and orange. They represent the land and the predominantly Catholic nationalist majority (green), the protestant Anglo-Irish minority (orange), and the peace (white) that exists between them.

The flag was used by nationalists in private since 1848 and flown in public again during the Easter Rising of 1916 in Dublin. In 1919 she was adopted as the official flag of the Irish Republic.

Uachtarán na hÉireann

Prof. Mary McAleese is the 8th President of the Republic of Ireland. First elected to the office in 1997 as a representative of the majority government party Fianna Fáil, she is now in her second seven-year term, to which she was elected without opposition in 2004. She is the second female President of the Republic and currently also the longest-serving elected female head of state in the world. Born in Belfast, she encountered the Northern troubles first-hand and her Catholic family was forced out of their house by "loyalist" terrorists. After studying law in Belfast and Dublin, she qualifed as a barrister. In 1975 she was appointed a professor in the legal faculty of Trinity College, Dublin and in 1979 joined RTÉ television as a journalist and presenter. Since 1981 she combined both areas of work, but returned in 1987 to Belfast, as Director of the Institute of Professional Legal Studies at Queen's University, which appointed her Pro-Vice Chancellor in 1994.

An Taoiseach

Brian Cowen, TD is the 12th Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland and the 7th leader of the majority government party Fianna Fáil. In 1984, aged 24, he was elected to the Dáil in the constituency his father Bernhard, a local publican, had represented before. After 8 years in parliament, Cowen was appointed Minister for Labour in 1992. Since then he served as Minister for Transport, Energy and Communications, Minister for Health and Children, and - from 2000 to 2004 - as the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Since 2005 Brian Cowen was Minister for Finance, and since 2007 also Tanaiste (Deputy Prime Minister). When Taoiseach Bertie Ahern declared his resignation on April 2nd, 2008, Cowen was elected unopposed as the new leader of Fianna Fáil on April 9th. On May 7th, 2008 Dáil Eireann elected him Taoiseach. He leads a coalition government inherited from Bertie Ahern and supported by the Green Party and four independent TDs. The now 48-year-old, sometimes referred to as 'Biffo', is married and father of two daughters. A keen Gaelic football fan, he also continues to be president of Clara GAA club.

The Parliament

of Ireland is known as the Houses of the Oireachtas. The House of Deputies (currently 166) is called Dáil Éireann, while 60 Senators form Seanad Éireann, the Senate. Both meet at Leinster House on Dublin's Kildare Street (above). The former city residence of the Duke of Leinster was sold in 1815 to the Royal Dublin Society (RDS) which added two new wings, to accomodate the National Library and the National Museum. After the formation of the Irish Free State in 1922 the central part was chosen as the provisional parliament chamber (until some proper building would be found). Despite plans to turn the Royal Hospital, Kilmainham, into the seat of the Oireachtas, it never happened. So Leinster House is still at the heart of Irish politics. And when Irish architect James Hoban designed the White House in Washington, D.C., he modeled it on Leinster House.

A few words about me

Having been born into an old European family (with 75% of the genes Celtic) I learned early that history and traditions are very important. After a quite turbulent childhood and youth, spent in different countries on three continents, I joined the Navy, served for many years in ships, other commands, and became a historian.
After leaving the Navy I worked in a museum and national monument, taught in school and college, edited a magazine and worked as journalist and broadcaster. Now I earn my crust as an independent consultant and analyst. In my scarce spare time I am involved in various social activities and charity work, write and read a lot, and sometimes even find time for painting.
My house is old and small, and I share it with a cat. Living a simple Spartan life, I eat vegetarian food and do not enjoy alcohol and most entertainments.
Life is too short to be wasted on fripperies. Every day is needed to do one's share - no matter how small it might be - to save the planet and its living creatures.

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The HSE, as seen by "Green Ink"

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