2018 MLB Mock Draft: First Run (Shadow)

Feature Photo: Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O’Connor (Phoenix, Ariz.)

Well, not quite a mock draft in the traditional sense — more of a “shadow draft”. These picks are based on our evaluations, our knowledge of the organizations, and what we believe to be the best fits for each club for each of the first 43 picks of the draft. While any knowledge we have about organizational preferences can play a roll in our selections, we did not attempt to chase down rumors or “guess” what teams may be thinking based on our conversations with sources. This is an exercise in talent identification and application of draft strategy –we hope you enjoy it.

We chopped up the teams and each made selections based on what we believed to be the best pick for the club taking into account our evaluations and our knowledge of the organization. In many instances there was no clear selection, so we’ve also included a list of other players strongly considered for each pick to help give an idea as to when we would start looking at the some of these players as quality targets.

Comments/Feedback welcomed and encouraged! Twitter (@BurkeGranger and @NickJFaleris) and by email (mailbag@2080baseball.com).

Breakdown: The most dominant arm in college baseball this spring, Mize has struck out 104 and walked just 12 in his 75 innings of work for Auburn, thanks to a plus fastball, plus split/changeup, above-average cutter, and above-average command. While there are still some concerns regarding long-term durability, he’s averaged almost seven innings per start this spring with the opposition hitting just .170, and could reach the majors in short order. –NF

Breakdown: The first wildcard in the draft, the Giants could go a number of different ways here. With Kelenic, they get the most consistent prep bat during the summer showcase circuit. Each of Kelenic’s tools project as at least average, he has a chance to stick in center, and he controls the barrel uncommonly well for a high school hitter. –BG

Breakdown: With the Phillies making the transition from rebuild to competitor in NL East, Bohm makes a lot of sense as a plus-power corner stick with a track record with wood (.351/.399/.513 last summer on the Cape). It’s a profile somewhat lacking in the current Phillies system and Bohm should be athletic enough to handle third long term. –NF

Breakdown: Though he’s likely limited to second base as a professional, Madrigal has the instincts and hands to be a plus defender there. The White Sox already have Yoan Moncada entrenched at that position, but Madrigal is still a few years away despite the advanced profile and his elite bat-to-ball skills are too impressive to pass on here. He has yet to strike out in 60-plus plate appearances this season and is slashing .455/.500/.636 as he works his way back from a broken wrist. –BG

Breakdown: Stewart has the best curveball in the draft class, consistently registering over 3,300 RPM with hard bite and elite depth, and has seen a velo jump this spring, now working in the low-to-mid 90s and touching as high as 98 mph with his fastball. There’s an argument he’s the highest upside arm in the entire class, with perhaps the best one-two punch available in his heater and hammer. –NF

Breakdown: You’ve heard the axiom that teams don’t make selections in the MLB Draft based on need, but the Mets catching situation has been so abysmal this year, an exception to that rule is warranted. Among available backstops, Bart offers the most appealing mix of power at the plate and defensive aptitude behind it. –BG

The Padres have one of the best collections of young arms in the game, and Liberatore would be an excellent edition to their growing stockpile. The Arizona commit boasts two potential future plus or better off-speed offerings with his curveball and changeup, to go with a projectable frame and a fastball that can reach the mid 90s. –NF

Breakdown: Rocker entered the showcase circuit as a potential top five pick, but over the course of an up-and-down summer his stuff plateaued and ran into too many barrels. This spring, he’s pitching more like the guy that evaluators thought he was twelve months ago, making him a nice backyard option for the Braves at eight. –BG

Breakdown: An up-the-middle defender on the grass, Swaggerty was a catalyst for the Collegiate National Team last summer, slashing .328/.449/.406 while swiping six bags, and has hit for increased power this spring (.260 ISO) thanks to a more lofted swing. While he’s seen an increase in contact issues, Swaggerty continues to put together quality at bats and is still getting on base while increasing his impact (.468 OBP – 42 BB to 29 strikeouts – over 200-plus PA). –NF

Breakdown: McClanahan hit a rough stretch last month due to control problems that led to shorter outings and fewer opportunities to miss bats with his electric stuff. He’s since reestablished his dominance and his holding opponents to a .160 batting average while also leading the country with a 15.21 K/9 ratio. –BG

Breakdown: India didn’t “wow” on the Cape last summer, but has been one of the best overall hitters in the country this spring and is currently slashing .401/.546/.810 with almost half of his 57 hits going for extra bases. With the Orioles seemingly transitioning from contention into rebuild/restructure mode, India would be a solid piece around which to build. –NF

Breakdown: Since 2015, the Blue Jays haven’t picked a high school player higher than 56th overall, and that was Brady Singer, who didn’t sign. They’d have another shot at Singer under this scenario who perhaps offers more upside than Rolison, though with more risk as well. A polished lefty with feel for his secondary offerings, Rolison could move quickly in professional ball. –BG

Breakdown: Singer has had dominant and clunker outings alike this spring, but recently showed well against Casey Mize (RHP, Auburn) and has solid overall production numbers (.175 BAA and 81 SO to 17 BB over 72 IP) this spring to go with his low-to-mid-90s fastball and sweeping slider. The Marlins have skewed high school arms as of late, and there are a handful that could be interesting here, as well. –NF

Breakdown: Dominance over the course of the summer showcase circuit positioned Hankins as a potential 1:1 candidate heading into the spring before he was sidelined with a shoulder injury. He has since returned and alleviated some concerns, sitting in his familiar 94-to-96 range in his final start of the season. –BG

Breakdown: Scott is a tooled-up outfielder with potential impact written all over him, making him a clean fit with a Rangers organization that loves athletes. A Florida commit, Scott shows potential for plus power at the plate while recording sub-4.1 home-to-first times from the left side, but is still a work-in-progress out on the grass (he can also reach 94 mph on the hill). –NF

Breakdown: Turang might not be the top five pick that many thought he could be at this point last year, but he has still established himself as the top prep shortstop in the class. He’s is a plus runner with the necessary tools and intangibles to remain at shortstop as a pro. Though his swing can get long, he keeps the barrel in the zone for an extended period of time and makes a lot of contact. –BG

Breakdown: Kowar can work his fastball into the mid 90s, regularly clocking in at 90 to 94 mph on a steep downhill plane, and backs it up with a nice 12-to-6 curve and a solid low-80s changeup that presents with good arm speed and plane deception. He’s battled his mechanics some this spring, particularly later in outings, and will need to increase strength and stamina to reach his upside as mid-rotation big league arm. –NF

Breakdown: After a pair of outstanding showings at high profile events such as the USA Baseball NHSI and the Boras Classic, Winn vaulted from the 40-to-60 range to likely first rounder. With four picks in the top 40, Kansas City can get creative on day one of the draft. It won’t be cheap to buy Winn out of his Mississippi State scholarship, so they may need to find savings somewhere later. –BG

Breakdown: There are lots of different options at this point in the first round, particularly for a club like St. Louis with multiple top-40 picks. Gorman has elite bat speed and perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. Though his showings at the plate have been inconsistent this spring, and the defensive profile may be merely adequate at third base, this is a nice play for an impact bat nineteen picks in. –NF

Breakdown: David Weathers had a major league career that spanned the better part of two decades, so it’s not terribly surprising that his son has advanced polish and pitchability compared to his prep peers. Although Weathers is a big bodied kid, he’s got plenty of athleticism and has had a decorated high school basketball career. He can show a plus fastball, above-average changeup and improving breaking ball. –BG

Breakdown: Gilbert was one of the best arms on the Cape last summer, and while his velocity has generally played low-90s this spring he has shown the ability to reach back for 95/96 mph in the past. He’ll flash a quality changeup and has made progress separating a slurvy breaker into two distinct offerings (slider/curve) this spring and has fanned 109 over 78 1/3 innings this spring, allowing just 16 BB and a .178 BAA. –NF

Breakdown: After pitching in the 90-to-93 range for much of the summer, Rodriguez’s velocity has trended up this spring, as has his draft stock. Working downhill from a 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame, Rodriguez has been reportedly up to 98 mph this spring while flashing a pair of average breaking balls and a developing changeup. –BG

Breakdown: The Yankees have a stacked minor league system without glaring needs, and Casas’s potential double-plus raw pop is intriguing enough to pop here, noting he’s unlikely to make it back to the Yankees when next they pick. Evaluators have a long history with Casas, who put together a loud showing at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational a month ago in front of dozens of decision makers. –NF

Breakdown: The Cubs have been college heavy recently, taking two collegiate pitchers in the first round last season and a trio of college bats the three years prior. A right-handed hitter with a pull side approach, Wrigley’s deep left field walls might zap some of Eierman’s pop, but he represents the best hitter on the board at this point. There are a number of college arms who are options for the Cubs here as well. –BG

Breakdown: Groshans showed well over the summer on the scouting circuit, demonstrating an ability to barrel top-tier pitching while also flashing potential for an above-average glove at third base (convincing some evaluators he can stick at short long term). He’s carried over his success this spring and represents an opportunity for the Diamondbacks to continue to build-up a relatively thin, but improving, collection of talent at the lower-levels. –NF

Breakdown: Beck missed all of 2017 with a back injury, but the Yankees still took a flyer on him in the 27th round as a draft eligible sophomore. Now healthy in his junior season, Beck is has pitched to a 6-2 record with a 2.78 ERA while holding hitters to just a .230 batting average.The Stanford starter has a chance for three above-average or better offerings in his low-to-mid-90s fastball, low-80s slider and low-80s changeup. –BG

Breakdown: A collegiate arm makes a lot of sense for the Nationals here. Hjelle creates impressive plane out of a high release and 6-foot-11 frame, reaching as high as 95 mph with his fastball and backing-up the heater with a solid curveball and changeup that could each be average or better at maturity. It isn’t the loudest arsenal in the class, but it’s one of the more refined, with a chance to move quickly. –NF

Breakdown: Schnell is a five-tool talent who has parlayed impressive showings over the summer showcase circuit into a strong spring campaign. The profile isn’t dissimilar from that of Kyle Tucker (OF), the Astros first round (5th overall) selection in 2015, though Schnell has a better chance to stick in centerfield long-term. –BG

Breakdown: High upside prep targets seem to be the best fit here for the Tribe. Thomas looks the part of a future lead-off or number two hitter capable of 35-plus doubles per year to go with top-of-the-order on-base production and contact rates, as well as center field speed and instincts (despite a below-average arm). With two picks in the next 12 Cleveland should get another shot at one or two of the prepsters below, also considered here. –NF

Breakdown: Though he has a projectable 6-foot-5 and 220-pound frame, there is effort in Wilcox’s delivery and rigidity in his arm action that suggests he could end up in a bullpen. The stuff is undeniable, however, as his fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch 98. He can also turn over a plus changeup and his biting slider can flash above-average. –BG

Breakdown: Roberts has successfully made the transition from the bullpen to the rotation this season, where he’s stuck out 12.52 per-nine, while cutting his walks-per-nine from 5.40 to 3.33 year-over-year. Roberts’s slider is one of the best pitches in this draft — a swing-and-miss offering with two-plane break — and he pairs it with a sinking mid-to-low-90’s fastball. Though he’s earned the opportunity to start at the next level, he could move quickly as a high leverage reliever. –BG

Breakdown: While he was considered more of a day two draft prospect entering the year, Larnach has hit his way into first round consideration this spring. The right-handed hitter is slashing .338/.467/.669 with 12 homeruns and nearly as many walks (32) as strikeouts (33). He could go much higher to a team that doesn’t view him as limited to a corner outfield spot in the future. –BG

Breakdown: After an impressive showing in the Cape Cod Baseball League, Conine entered the year regarded as one of the more advanced collegiate bats in this draft class. He struggled mightily out of the gate, however, and is hitting just .237 with less than a month left in the season. While there has always been swing and miss to his game, Conine has power, on-base ability, and is now looking more like a value pick in the late day one/early day two range of this draft. –BG

Breakdown: Banfield is a polished receiver with a double-plus arm who flashes above-average raw power. The recent track record for glove first prep catchers in the draft leaves much to be desired, and there are some questions surrounding how much Banfield will hit. If he makes it to Nashville, Banfield could be an instant contributor for the ‘Dores. Freeing up money for Winn, Conine and Banfield could require a cost-saving pick later on. –BG

Breakdown: The Indians are no strangers to potential impact shortstops out of Montverde Academy (see Lindor, Francisco). While the narrative is fun, there’s substance to the pick here, as De Sedas was one of the loudest bats on display during the summer showcase circuit, with a chance for above-average power from both sides of the plate. An inconsistent spring has dropped his stock to the point where he could be a steal for a team willing to roll the dice and buy him out of his FSU commitment. –NF

Breakdown: Over the summer, Walker shined as one of the best players on the Collegiate National Team and is currently one of the hottest hitters in college baseball, slashing .371/.465/.624 with 11 homeruns this spring from the left side. A fringe-average arm may limit the Oklahoma product to left field as a professional, though his bat profiles well at a corner.

Breakdown: After grabbing a collegiate bat with their first pick of the day, Baltimore has a handful of solid prep and collegiate options here. Fearing a run on college bats, the Orioles could pop Hannah here and see what drops to them on the prep side with their next selection. Hannah has the potential to develop into a plus power/speed talent, and has made impressive strides this spring tightening up his approach at the plate while maintaining a high foundational value thanks to his glove and base running. –NF

Breakdown: Adams upped his stock as much as anyone at USA Baseball’s National High School Invitational this spring, with a couple of loud showings at the plate hinting the baseball side of this two-sport star was perhaps more developed than initially anticipated. There’s still plenty of risk in the profile given the limited competition he’s faced on the diamond, but the Padres aren’t afraid to gamble some on tools, and Adams is a strong upside play with an extra pick here. –NF

Breakdown: Knight works easily in the low-90s with his fastball and can reach back for 95 when he needs it, relying on a mid-80s slider as his best secondary offering (though he’ll mix-in both a slow curve and changeup as change-of-pace offerings, as well). He registers impressive spin rates, to boot, and serves as a nice balance to the prep infield selection thirteen picks earlier. The DBacks could also use this pick to make a run at another upside prep talent. –NF

Breakdown: If the Royals are going to sign Cole Winn and Will Banfield away from their college commitments as this exercise would dictate, they’ll need to find a way to save some money in the first several rounds. A college reliever could help them some in that department, and with a power upper-90’s fastball and hard-biting slider, Feltman is among the best true relievers in the class. –BG

Breakdown: After impressing with wood last summer on the Cape, Isbel has moved into early round consideration this spring thanks to a slash line of .355/.441/.645, albeit with some plate coverage issues that may be more readily exploited at the next level. Isbel has the physical tools to stick in center field long term, and there could be a little more power to unlock as he continues to lift and drive the ball with more regularity. –NF

Breakdown: Naylor takes loud hacks from the left side of the plate, projecting to hit for above-average power that will play up significantly if he makes it to Coors Field. His other carrying tool is an above-average arm that will be an asset both behind the plate and at the hot corner should he require a move off the catching position. –BG

Breakdown: After rolling the dice some with their first pick, it makes sense for the Cardinals to aim for a higher floor here. Bubic has been impressive for Stanford this spring, holding opponents to a .205 batting average and sporting a 65:19 SO:BB in 59 innings of work. He operates primarily off of a low-90s fastball that can reach the mid 90s, as well as an above-average changeup.