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Who here thinks that roughly 24 months from now there will be a third major leap in both sensor quality/quantity and computing horsepower?

And - because speculation is our raison d'être here at TMC - what will it be?

My money is on more radar and perhaps even more cameras for redundancy, perhaps coupled with fully redundant computers and various fail-safe devices for the steering and braking systems.

At that point I also speculate we may see a way to fold the steering wheel/yoke away from the driver along with a fold-out tray to use as a mobile desk, and even a driver's seat which can recline into a bed with a footrest.

If Tesla pulled this off 24 months from now it will be one way to throw more egg in the Germans' faces and stay a step ahead of them - we are now two years into lane-keeping that has still been equaled by nobody. 24 months from now Benz will just be rolling out their first long range EV and there are no indications it will be fully self driving, let alone have anything like a driver's desk or sleeping chair.

As long as I'm guessing, I'll speculate we are also 24-36 months away from a longer wheelbase flagship Tesla sedan with roomier rear seats which also recline. Yes, Tesla is on a mission to go mass market but that doesn't mean they aren't simultaneously developing the next generation of their upmarket offerings also.

@calisnow, my interpretation of the description of Full Self Driving Capability on Tesla's website right now is that it is the equivalent of Level 5 autonomous driving. Since Telsa has been very clear that the currently shipping sensor suite will do FSDC once the software is released then it appears that no further hardware is needed. You can't go over Level 5.

Sure, I agree. Of course there will be sensor changes/improvements in the future. My point was that Tesla appears to be claiming that the current sensor suite will achieve Level 5 autonomy. Which amazes me. We shall see...

I think there's a non zero chance an accident occurs or regulatory approval doesn't happen because the current sensor suite is inadequate in some unforeseen way that becomes obvious after the fact. There will need to be another upgrade to the suite to make it fully level 5.

1. Because Elon said a while ago that we should have 10x improvement on humans to accept full autonomy, and he recently said this suite should give 2x improvement.

2. Redundancy to allow minor faults to be accommodated, as well as reduce accident potential with extra "eyes" looking out.

3. Bad weather. Precipitation getting in the way of current cameras, and just 1 forward radar. Until you have full autonomy in in a blizzard, hardware will evolve, and even then it will still improve.

4. Smart traffic. I hope this comes soon, but could be delayed for regulation and standards that all manufacturers can agree on. The car should talk talk to cars around itself and be notifed of braking or maneuvering events. It should also talk to grid to be aware of and avoid potential conflicts at intersections, as well as receive timing instructions to slow down/speed up to flow traffic better than the current dumb traffic lights allow.

5. Convoys. I'm surprised there is little talk about "car trains" or convoys given everyone's understanding of reducing drag and therefore energy. Cars, or tesla semi trucks could be a few inches to a few feet behind each other and have huge energy savings. Not to mention the safety of having the lead car or "pilot" leading a massive train of cars/trucks in full autonomy with the passengers sleeping, or having just cargo and no driver.

I guarantee tesla is working on this convoy, and I hope they shock the world soon when they cut freight costs by 10x, and emissions by the same or better.

I cant call who will win the World Series in 23 years, but this will be normal in 23 years.

This is a picture of a Volvo concept - my guess is that this is 24-36 months out - max - for the Model S/X. Couple a sleeper seat with 400-500 mile battery and automatic supercharger connections (also perhaps only 24 months away given that the 100D will be 320+) and I think we are looking at airline disruption for short haul flights like LA/OC/SD to SF/Sacramento/Phoenix. Hop in your Tesla at 10 pm, pop an ambien - wake up in your destination city.

Me personally - I would even take the Tesla over a plane for the 700 miles, 11 hour LA -> SLC drive to ski. Sleep 8 hours on the road, wake up, have breakfast in the car, change into ski clothes and be floating through fresh powder at Alta by 9 am. Woot!

This kind of efficient luxury transport would be the freedom and time-saving machine I would gladly pay $150K+ for.

Who here thinks that roughly 24 months from now there will be a third major leap in both sensor quality/quantity and computing horsepower?

And - because speculation is our raison d'être here at TMC - what will it be?

My money is on more radar and perhaps even more cameras for redundancy, perhaps coupled with fully redundant computers and various fail-safe devices for the steering and braking systems.

At that point I also speculate we may see a way to fold the steering wheel/yoke away from the driver along with a fold-out tray to use as a mobile desk, and even a driver's seat which can recline into a bed with a footrest.

If Tesla pulled this off 24 months from now it will be one way to throw more egg in the Germans' faces and stay a step ahead of them - we are now two years into lane-keeping that has still been equaled by nobody. 24 months from now Benz will just be rolling out their first long range EV and there are no indications it will be fully self driving, let alone have anything like a driver's desk or sleeping chair.

As long as I'm guessing, I'll speculate we are also 24-36 months away from a longer wheelbase flagship Tesla sedan with roomier rear seats which also recline. Yes, Tesla is on a mission to go mass market but that doesn't mean they aren't simultaneously developing the next generation of their upmarket offerings also.

I don't get the obsession with radar? I understand it can see through fog, rain, etc.

But it isn't accurate enough to place the vehicle on the road with enough confidence to stay in a lane. It can't see lane lines. GPS isn't accurate enough either.

Click to expand...

Where do these pieces of information come from?

Some modern GPS systems are accurate within a couple centimeters - certainly plenty to steer along a lane if the car has a high precision map of where that lane is.

I don't have enough information about the capability of the radar unit Tesla is using to comment, but I suspect it has ample precision as well - provided the car has a radar map of the correct path.

That radar map is what I expect the whitelist we're developing right now to evolve into - which added to high precision map downloads will give the car triple redundancy in reading where it is on known routes in the future, and some capability to drive when snow blocks the lane lines.

I don't get the obsession with radar? I understand it can see through fog, rain, etc.

But it isn't accurate enough to place the vehicle on the road with enough confidence to stay in a lane. It can't see lane lines. GPS isn't accurate enough either.

Click to expand...

GPS with SBAS or LBAS and inertial smoothing is. I fly an aircraft fairly regularly that uses SBAS and inertial smoothing, I've never seen the system more than 18 inches off (except right after it starts up and all the satellites have not yet been acquired), LBAS is even more accurate. Tesla will definitely use SBAS with inertial smoothing, I wouldn't be surprised if they have some sort of LBAS built in as well.

SBAS: Satellite Based Augmentation System
LBAS: Local (no, not "Locally") Based Augmentation System.

Higher accuracy is attainable by using GPS in combination with augmentation systems. These enable real-time positioning to within a few centimeters, and post-mission measurements at the millimeter level.

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Augmentation systems to the best of my knowledge are location specific and requires extra hardware.

GPS with SBAS or LBAS and inertial smoothing is. I fly an aircraft fairly regularly that uses SBAS and inertial smoothing, I've never seen the system more than 18 inches off (except right after it starts up and all the satellites have not yet been acquired), LBAS is even more accurate. Tesla will definitely use SBAS with inertial smoothing, I wouldn't be surprised if they have some sort of LBAS built in as well.

SBAS: Satellite Based Augmentation System
LBAS: Local (no, not "Locally") Based Augmentation System.

Click to expand...

Thank you. 18 inches is pretty good! Much better than I had read. I still don't feel like it's good enough to fit in a 12 ft lane.

Higher accuracy is attainable by using GPS in combination with augmentation systems. These enable real-time positioning to within a few centimeters, and post-mission measurements at the millimeter level.

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Augmentation systems to the best of my knowledge are location specific and requires extra hardware.

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