God I hope for a STRONG El Nino this year. For the masses you might not have as great of a season but for us few in NM this means huge dumps at Taos, Wolf Creek, Co and best of all even more snow for Silverton.
....fingers and toes crossed!

Its hard to get a table for one at chucky cheese when you look like I do.

Sea Surface temperatures held steady in the week ending Nov. 16, with temperatures at 1.7 degrees Celsius above average in the central Pacific tropical region most watched by El Nino forecasters and observers. Temperatures further west dropped a tick from 1.6 degrees above normal to 1.5 degrees, and in the cooler region off the South American coast, temperatures rose a tick to .5 degrees above normal, which is the threshold for being classified as an El Nino condition. This may indicate that the condition is beginning to level off, as many of the earlier forecasts suggested it would. We still need to wait for November's numbers to go into the books before this "condition" is officially classified as an El Nino "event," which requires five consecutive overlapping three-month periods with temperatures at least .5 degrees C above average.

This El Nino is shaping up to be a moderate one by historical standards. See our report at www.tahoeloco.com for a listing of every El Nino since 1951 with their peak ocean temperatures to see how this year's event ranks against the others.

NOAA predicts MJO event to begin soon and to last till mid-december. What is MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)? It refers to the migration of an area of atmosphere convection located in the tropics around Indonesia. Think of it as a source of very big plumes of moisture on the distant, hot side of the Pacific Ocean. The origin point of the moisture plays a big factor in where the water ultimately ends up. Let's skip the technical details...Anyhow, NOAA is predicting a period of strong tropical storms to hammer the Pacific coast for at least a week, maybe two, sometimes these cycles can go three-four weeks. It's the famous flood n' mudslide side of El Nino. There's gonna be some huge dumps somewhere soon....anybody feeling lucky?

El Nino storms are often a "feast or famine" thing. All that can be predicted is that a hose of tropical moisture is forming that, hopefully, will break down offshore high pressure blocking ridges and lead to a 1-3 week period of low pressure(i.e. moisture) flowing across the continent. Getting the "bull'seye" of a low pressure center is key and catching a few can make the difference between picking up 5-8 feet of dense pow over the storm cycle or much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Missing out means the dif between a decent year and suckfest. These are usually warm storms, so a few degrees can determine whether the hill gets two feet of pow or a nasty rain crust. If it all aligns for the Wasatch, these sort of storms are known to hit the high resorts like Alta with truly epic dumps, while the low resorts can get rather mixed results and rain in SLC.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 December 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue and last at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring
2010.
El Niño strengthened from October to November 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST)
anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Figs. 1 and 2). The Niño-3.4
index value remained steady during November with the most recent weekly value at +1.7°C (Fig. 2).
Consistent with this warmth, upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3) and
subsurface temperature anomalies shifted eastward across the eastern Pacific, with the largest departures
exceeding +4°C by the end of the month (Fig. 4). Also, the low-level and upper-level wind anomalies
over the equatorial Pacific were highly variable during the month due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation
(MJO). The MJO also contributed to anomalous convection over Indonesia and the west-central
equatorial Pacific (110°E to 180°; Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect
a moderate strength El Niño.
Substantial disagreement remains among the models as to the eventual peak strength of El Niño
(Fig. 6). Even at short lead times (e.g. November-December-January), SST forecasts for the Niño-3.4
region range from +0.5 to +2.0°C. At this point, it seems equally likely that El Niño will either
strengthen further or remain at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0 to +1.4°C) during
the next few months. Regardless of the precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant
influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST
anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, but El Niño will persist through
March-April-May 2010.
Expected El Niño impacts during December 2009-February 2010 include enhanced precipitation
over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.
Also, warming in the far eastern equatorial Pacific is likely in the coming months with the associated
potential for enhanced rainfall in portions of Peru and Ecuador. For the contiguous United States,
potential impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below average
precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Below-average
snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New
England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the southeastern states.

NOAA predicts MJO event to begin soon and to last till mid-december. What is MJO(Madden-Julian Oscillation)? It refers to the migration of an area of atmosphere convection located in the tropics around Indonesia. Think of it as a source of very big plumes of moisture on the distant, hot side of the Pacific Ocean. The origin point of the moisture plays a big factor in where the water ultimately ends up. Let's skip the technical details...Anyhow, NOAA is predicting a period of strong tropical storms to hammer the Pacific coast for at least a week, maybe two, sometimes these cycles can go three-four weeks. It's the famous flood n' mudslide side of El Nino. There's gonna be some huge dumps somewhere soon....anybody feeling lucky?

I'd say the NOAA meteorologists were correct on this one. So-Cal now has flooded streets and mudslides triggered by the MJO flow and the huge pow dumps arrived right where they often do during Nino. Lets hope this is a four weeker, which seems to be about the longest it lasts. I just checked the pacific satellite moisture vapor image and the convection point is still strong on the east side of the Indonesian land mass. That is the point that produces the strong tropcal moisture flow into the lower 48.

It looks like the jetstream has the entire PNW in its path, at least with this storm, targeting everything from Tahoe to Baker and then some... It looks to be bringing in some warmer temps from the SW that might result in rain at the 6k ft level later in the week. It looks like it could be part of MJO, but I'm no meteorologist, but for the moment it looks like the PNW hasn't dried out yet.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
7 January 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent value reaching +1.8°C (Fig. 2). Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3). Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2°C across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month. Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niño, along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 5). At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5°C during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February). Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.
Expected El Niño impacts during January-March 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, which will likely expand eastward and influence portions of the eastern equatorial Pacific, as well as coastal sections of Peru and Ecuador. For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Below-average snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.

Elsewhere, [ame="http://www.wildlandfire.com/hotlist/showpost.php?p=61528&postcount=1"]the CAL FIRE division chief reports[/ame] that el Nino is sending a big jetstream to California... and that you're going to get an arctic-pinapple one-two punch that could leave snowfall accumulations in the high-altitude Sierras "in the tens of feet".

If you own any river valley property, though, better start stacking sandbags.

Thanks! Glad to do it. This El Nino is pretty strong, as we're seeing right now with the storm track across CA/AZ/NM. Things are really sucking here in the Tetons. I'm looking forward to seeing some TRs from southern CO and northern NM. Post em up!

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
4 February 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
A significant El Niño persisted throughout the equatorial Pacific Ocean during January 2010 (Fig.
1). Although sea surface temperature (SST) departures in the Niño-3.4 region decreased to +1.2°C in late
January, SSTs continued to be sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection (Figs. 2 and 3). Over
the last several months, a series of oceanic Kelvin waves contributed to the build-up of heat content
anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The latest Kelvin wave was associated with
temperature departures exceeding +2°C down to 150m depth across the eastern half of the equatorial
Pacific (Fig. 5). Equatorial convection over the central Pacific remained enhanced during the month,
while convection over Indonesia exhibited considerable week-to-week variability. While the low-level
winds have been variable, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies generally prevailed
during January. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong and mature El
Niño episode.
Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, and
model spread increases at longer lead times (Fig. 6). Nearly half of the models indicate the 3-month
Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C around April-May-June 2010, indicating a transition to
ENSO-neutral conditions during Northern Hemisphere spring. However, predicting the timing of this
transition is highly uncertain.
El Niño impacts are expected to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as equatorial SST
departures decrease, partly due to the typical warming that occurs between now and April/May (Fig. 3).
Expected impacts during February-April 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and
enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, which will likely expand eastward and
influence portions of the eastern tropical Pacific, as well as coastal sections of Peru and Ecuador. For the
contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southern
tier of the country, with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. Belowaverage
snowfall and above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern tier of states
(excluding New England), while below-average temperatures are favored for the south-central and
southeastern states.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
4 March 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
A moderate-to-strong El Niño continued during February 2010, with sea surface temperature
(SST) anomalies exceeding 1.5°C in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month (Fig. 1).
Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index remained steady at +1.2°C during February (Fig. 2). An oceanic
Kelvin wave was initiated in early February, which acted to increase the subsurface heat content
anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3), and to strengthen subsurface
temperature departures (exceeding +2°C down to 100-175m) across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig.
4). SSTs were sufficiently warm to support deep tropical convection, which strongly increased across the
central and eastern tropical Pacific, while remaining suppressed over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Equatorial lowlevel
westerly wind anomalies also strengthened during February, while upper-level easterly wind
anomalies weakened slightly. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a moderateto-
strong El Niño episode.
Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, with
the model spread increasing at longer lead times (Fig. 6). The majority of models predict the 3-month
Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSOneutral
conditions near the onset of Northern Hemisphere summer. However, several models suggest the
potential of continued weak El Niño conditions through 2010, while others predict the development of La
Niña conditions later in the year. Predicting when El Niño will dissipate and what may follow remains
highly uncertain.
El Niño impacts are expected to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as equatorial
SST departures decrease, partly in response to the typical warming that occurs between now and
April/May. Expected impacts during March-May 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over
Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, as well as
coastal sections of Peru and Ecuador. For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include
above-average precipitation for the Southwest, the south-central states, and Florida, and below-average
precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region. Above-average temperatures are most
likely across the northern tier of states (excluding New England and the Northern Plains), while belowaverage
temperatures are favored for the south-central and southeastern states.

The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSOneutral
conditions near the onset of Northern Hemisphere summer. However, several models suggest the potential of continued weak El Niño conditions through 2010, while others predict the development of La Niña conditions later in the year. Predicting when El Niño will dissipate and what may follow remains highly uncertain.

The million dollar question....sure would be sweet to see a swing back to Nina timed for next fall.

The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSOneutral
conditions near the onset of Northern Hemisphere summer. However, several models suggest the potential of continued weak El Niño conditions through 2010, while others predict the development of La Niña conditions later in the year. Predicting when El Niño will dissipate and what may follow remains highly uncertain.

The million dollar question....sure would be sweet to see a swing back to Nina timed for next fall.

Agreed, that niña loves vail too. Either way, I'll take a non niño year. Its been than nothing, this year has been tough.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 April 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
El Niño weakened to moderate strength during March 2010, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreasing slightly, but still exceeding +1°C across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at the end of the month (Figs. 1 and 2). Subsurface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) decreased during March in response to the eastward expansion of below-average temperature anomalies at depth (100-200m) into the east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). Anomalous tropical convection remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the central and eastern Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The equatorial low-level easterly trade winds strengthened near the Date Line, while upper-level easterly wind anomalies became confined to the eastern Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing, but weakening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through 2010, with the model spread increasing at longer lead times (Fig. 6). The majority of models predict the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST anomaly will drop below +0.5°C by May-June-July 2010, indicating a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions that will likely persist through Northern Hemisphere summer. Over the last couple months, an increasing number of models, including the latest runs from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), are predicting below-average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region by Northern Hemisphere fall, with some forecasts meeting thresholds for La Niña. However, it should be noted that model skill is at a minimum during this time of year, and also that the majority of models continue to indicate the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions through 2010.
Expected El Niño impacts during April-June 2010 include drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. For the contiguous United States, potential El Niño impacts include above-average precipitation for the southeastern states, while above-average temperatures are most likely for the Pacific Northwest.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
6 May 2010
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.
El Niño weakened during April 2010 as positive surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, SST anomalies still exceeded +0.5°C across most of the Pacific at the end of the month (Figs. 1 and 2). Since the end of February, subsurface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) have decreased steadily in association with the expansion and strengthening of below-average temperatures at depth (25-200m; Fig. 4). Also, enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, while suppressed convection strengthened and expanded over the tropical Pacific, south of the equator (Fig. 5). The low-level equatorial trade winds remained near-average, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the central Pacific during much of April. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a weakening El Niño.
Nearly all models predict decreasing SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010 (Fig. 6). Most models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2010, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of the year. However, by July-September 2010, the envelope of model solutions includes a significant number (nearly a third) indicating the onset of La Niña conditions. Even though ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely during the second half of the year, the general tendency of the models in recent months has been toward increasingly negative SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region. These forecasts, in addition to various oceanic and atmospheric indicators, indicate a growing possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010.