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There is probably no better chronicler into the full depth of American ingenuity than YouTube. Here one finds not just computer models for all manner of esoteric combustion engine designs, but actual working prototypes of them, often built by individuals. Big companies can also innovate here sometimes. A new free piston engine linear generator (FPEG) from Toyota Central in Maine is a case in point.

The piston is called “free” because there is no crankshaft. On its power stroke, the piston dumps its kinetic energy into the fixed windings which surround it, generating a shot of three-phase AC electricity. It can be run sparkless through a diesel cycle or run on standard gasoline. What has folks excited is the claimed thermal efficiency for the device — at 42% it blows away the engines used in cars today. Toyota’s demo engine, just 8 inches around and 2 feet long, was able to generate 15 hp. A two-cylinder model would be self-balancing and have much reduced vibration.

Not surprisingly, the valves are electrically operated and can therefore be better used to fine-tune the power delivery through the full range of the stroke. Speaking of strokes, the video indicates a two-stroke design, which might present a few problems for a road-worthy design. For one thing, emissions would be suspect. Nonetheless Toyota imagines that a twin unit design pumping out 20 kW could power a light electric vehicle at a cruise speed of 120 kph (75 mph).

Linear generators and linear combustion engines are nothing new. Shake-to-charge “Faraday” flashlights, smartphones, and even energy-harvesting backpacks are all standard fare, while single-acting direct power pistons have also seen action in applications as intriguing as power-assist boots for the Russian military. The trick is to get the two working efficiently in unison and that is the beauty of what Toyota appears has done. Considering that the piston is decelerated and re-accelerated at each end of the stroke, any mismatch between combustive power input and electromagnetic power extraction needs to be absorbed somewhere. Mechanical or air springs can help although there is still likely to be some efficiency loss.

At the risk of adding some confusion, the device is technically an alternator as it generates AC. As (most) electric cars use 3-phase AC induction or “AC-like” 3-phase brushless DC motors, they could potentially run directly from the output of this device, perhaps save for some intermediary voltage and current conditioning. However, like standard car alternators, there will likely be DC conversion to charge the battery pack — unless Toyota has also secretly perfected the AC battery. There is still plenty of room to innovate here. Linear alternators are similar in design to linear motors, but one does not simply reverse the cycle to swap one into the other — there are certain control functions that need to be imposed on how the coils are energized in a motor. However that does not mean a multipurpose linear electric power device could not be constructed.

Mercedes Benz SLS AMG Electric Drive, with an electric motor in each wheel hub for a total of 740 hp

While this concept would not immediately be in the same class as the 740-hp electric wheel hub motor designs, it could still have its niche. There is no reason the engine couldn’t be scaled up to a larger footprint and bolder performance.

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Marcel Klein

You just said it, the intermediate form of the energy transmission is electric energy and not kinetic energy. Toyotas engine directly produces a 3-phase alternating current which could be used to drive an electric motor. (It would probably still require some kind of frequency converter to achieve that solution.) They could also charge a battery with the electric energy and just use the battery to power the electric motors, or maybe both at the same time.

massau

if they use a frequency converter than they could as well convert the AC to DC and use a brush less engine and use the DC power for the batteries.

Marcel Klein

I only wanted to clarify the energy transmission without going into too much detail. However, of course there many different ways how the electric energy can be converted and used with different pros and cons.

For instance, Tesla’s Model S uses a 3-phase AC induction motor (a Tesla motor ;) ). High performance DC motors are still quite expensive, currently it’s more economical to use AC and AC can actually be transformed quite efficiently.

massau

I thought the Tesla’s where brush less DC thanks for pointing out it is AC. i guess we need some kind of evolution in the highpower DC brush less engines to make them cheaper.

Maventwo

Thank you for explaining that!
I just didn’t understand all parts of the Toyota piston engine.
The swedish Seawave-energy company Seabased have a similar piston generator.http://www.seabased.com/en

angh

doesn’t have to. Linear movement produces energy in the same way.

Maventwo

The swedish Seawave-energy company Seabased uses a piston-generator for generating energy.http://www.seabased.com/en
I just didn’t understand from the Toyota animation how it’s piston combusting engine generates power.

kschang

The windings on the cylinder walls is excited by the “stator” (the cylinder itself) which produces current, thus, generator.

christianh

My first design for an automobile had independent motors on the wheels… In 1988… People suck…

nextgen2013

you copied a decades old design and then say that people suck? lurk away smart guy

christianh

I did it in 1988 you freak… And I had never heard of it then… No wonder third world countries score higher than the US…

Mike Morgan

Electronically operated valves?…… That is a good idea! It would be like having infinite adjustability of the lift and duration on the camshaft…

Zunalter

So…this is a good thing, right?

Daniel Glass

The idea is simple enough – a small, high efficiency electrical generator that lets hybrids be a lot closer to EVs. Instead of a massively complex transmission system like on the Prius that selectively transitions kinetic energy from either the electric or gas motors, you have this crank on when more electricity is needed. Similarly sized motorcycle engines can get ~80MPG, sometimes significantly better. Pair it with a computer-controlled power converter/distributor and a big battery and efficient motor like in the Tesla and you’ll have a hybrid with high-end ev performance and the range characteristics of a fossil fuels vehicle. Pure EV is the ideal end goal, but tapering off petroleum use smartly until the tech catches up is the ideal.

conservativemind12

Boom.

kroozin

The headlights on the Mercedes at the end of this article look the same as one of the old Honda Preludes . . .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_motor
“Some of the problems of the brushed DC motor are eliminated in the BLDC design. In this motor, the mechanical “rotating switch” or commutator is replaced by an external electronic switch synchronised to the rotor’s position. BLDC motors are typically 85–90% efficient or more. Efficiency for a BLDC motor of up to 96.5% have been reported,[64] whereas DC motors with brushgear are typically 75–80% efficient.”

So how efficient it the Tesla motor? 88%? So this on a Tesla would give a 36% efficient solution?

I would prefer to see that verified by some independent third party though.

The big issue is not really the technical problems behind getting near 100% efficiency. They are transitioning the entire world of automobiles to electric vehicles or even better, making as many cities walkable/bike-able as possible.

That and public acceptance. This thread is somewhat of a microcosm for what is happening. A substantial proportion of people seem to be global warming denialists for example. Some may purchase fuel inefficient vehicles out of some bizarre feeling of spite.

Ivor O’Connor

“This thread is somewhat of a microcosm for what is happening. A substantial proportion of people seem to be global warming denialists for example.”
Yes indeed.

You have a point about how it should be verified by a third party. And why do they end at 70 mph instead of their top end of 130 mph?

We should be happy they are transitioning the planet. There will be time in the future to look into the details…

Rockne O’Bannon

How much do you want to be that Tesla will NEVER do this?

Assuming that they don’t for ideological reasons, then one can only conclude that somebody else will. It will be Toyota. And Toyota will eat Tesla’s lunch.

Higher gas prices? Who cares! I have a Toyota plug in hybrid.
Higher electricity prices? Who cares! I have a Toyota plug in hybrid.
Don’t have 70k to spend on a new car? Buy a Toyota plug in hybrid.
Want to have zero emissions? Buy a Toyota FCV.

But wait, it gets better. The FCV is going to have trouble in US markets, but it will be a hit elsewhere. Toyota needs a hit for the US market. Well. Here it is. The next generation Prius getting 100 miles per gallon. Gas is cheaper in the US than just about anywhere, so it makes sense that Toyota emphasizes hybrids rather than battery cars for the US market.

Ivor O’Connor

It is a transition niche at best. Something the car companies should jump on as they try to catch up with Tesla.

Rockne O’Bannon

Considering that Tesla has already jumped the shark, I think catching up will be no problem.

Tesla will not adapt. They think they can beat the range problem by adding more battery and putting more superchargers here and there. It just won’t be enough. People, particularly rich people, cannot just wait around for 20 minutes every 300 miles.

Here is a solution. It involves drops and driplets of gasoline, so it is a sure bet that Tesla will not grab it. Let’s see what happens.

Thank you for telling me that rich people do not stop every 300 miles to eat and freshen up. Rich people must not be human. Humans would eat breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Smart humans would simply plugin the charger, eat and freshen up, and continue on till the next meal.

Yes, Tesla will not bother with driplets of gasoline.

Yes, I’ve heard lots about the gigafactories.

Rockne O’Bannon

You had to look up JUMP THE SHARK? Judging from the hairdo in your picture, I felt certain that you would know who Fonzie was. Although you appear to fit the Tesla target market to a tee, I guess you are younger than you appeared to be.

I will also introduce this. You can add it to your vocabulary..
Enron Musk.
Do you like it?

Meaning that the particular mission creep of Tesla from electric car maker to battery wholesaler to infrastructure provider is exactly the same thing Enron did to confound investors, regulators, and others who really wanted to evaluate that company.

Enron also reports non GAAP financial numbers, just like Enron did, claiming that established accounting rules just don’t fit their business model.

I don’t care about that too much, but in light of the financials, I am not sure how Tesla is going to put together 5 billion dollars in loans from serious adults. I mean, would you buy Tesla 10 year bonds with a 15% coupon? I don’t think anyone would, and the conditions are not likely to be that good. Morgan Stanley has been pushing the stock lately. Do you think they will underwrite the bonds? Darn tootin they will!

Which brings me back to the broken promise. If Tesla cannot build a gigafactory, and it won’t, please tell me how it can possibly be the car that everyone will eventually want to drive, as opposed to a hybrid from an established company that gets over 100 mpg?

Thank for using “transition niche”. I will remember that. It might come in handy in the future to describe Tesla cars.

Ivor O’Connor

Or perhaps older than you think. “Happy Days” and the “Fonz” passed right under me never getting close to making contact. Though I still remember shaking my head sadly as I saw kids emulate him. You are striking out.

I’m amazed at how certain you are that Tesla will never build a gigafactory. I’m going to pass and not touch that or the “enron musk”. I’ll just shake my head sadly.

http://www.w8ji.com Charles Rauch

There is no such thing as zero emission. Moving the power source of your plug in car to a coal fired electrical energy provider is delusional zero emissions. Using an FCV simply shifts the emissions to the hydrogen production, from which hydrogen might be produced by processing coal (which generates CO2) or with electricity from coal fired plants. The problem is we have a society formed around personal transportation, and an incredible waste of home energy.

Pickybugger

So basically they have created a petrol/diesel fueled electric vehicle… doesn’t that go against the whole idea of creating electric vehicles in the first place? Seems like a bad idea to me.

havor

No they crated a new engine for hybrid cars like the Prius, and a 50% efficiency boost over traditional motor designs sounds to me like a good idea!

The only thing i don’t get is why there is no piston on the other side coil, as it would help with the return stroke.

Pickybugger

No they have created a combustion engine that powers an electric vehicle. Hybrids have two motors that can power the wheels (electric motors and combustion engines) but you are right in that its a similar concept. However that is just a way to keep combustion engines in the ‘loop’ which is what we (should be) are trying to get away from.

havor

I own a 85kWh Model S(p), pure because i wanted to have some extra range sometimes, o’tho i did not really mind the extra performance. ;-)

Also i prefer the electrical motor over any petrol engine, as i love having 100% torque at any speed.

But if i would have a lightweight 30kW free piston engine, to augment my driving range i could easily had enough with a 30kWh battery, for my daily driving, and use the free piston engine if i need a longer range.

Preferably as a drop-in or bold–under unit, to use only when needed.

I would then have gotten a smarter +/- $60K 45kWh model, instead of the $110k Performance model

Average driving distance per day is about 40mi, mine is (partly) because i live in Norway, and have to drive around mountains and fjords, about 50mi a day, but even so, a 20kWh would still be big enough or my daily driving, even in a 2t car.

So if there ware a small (portable) generator size petrol/diesel engine i think most people would be soled on EVs, as most people say that range is there biggest concern for buying a EV.

Most EV buyers have a second car, because even do they can do 99% of there driving with there EV, its those 1% drives to grandma or so, that can be a real pain to have a EV as the only car.

This could properly be the most efficient solution for plug-in’s.

Pickybugger

That s good point. I would love to get a Tesla Model S some day, they are great cars!
I am always looking forward to advancements in battery and power generation technologies that are ‘clean and green’. =)

havor

Too be honest i do prefer ”Clean and Green” and i am even willing to pay a certain premium for it.

But i got a Model S, just because they are so damn cheap ere in Norway, compared to the much higher taxed combustion brothers!

Rockne O’Bannon

Havor. I also have an EV and you have perfectly described here and now why EVs are a dead end.
100% battery is just plain dumb because the only solution to any problem is just to buy a bigger battery. Which means more weight and then more steel and then more battery, ad nauseum.

Your solution is to have a battery at 35 or so and then use some other resource to charge it as necessary. Of course! And from a materials perspective, you can probably make two or three cars instead of one, and have them be about a third of the price.

Sure. We all think that EVs are the future, but they aren’t. Hydrogen. Eventually it will be hydrogen and FCVs because it is the way that humans can finally put renewable together vehicles without using clunky batteries.

kschang

Range extender, like the Chevy volt. Run in full electric for local, but stll capable of very long range and regular gasoline fill-ups when plug-in is not available or practical.

Rockne O’Bannon

Now THIS is an intelligent comment. And the great thing here is that the engine will likely be very light and simple and small. Toyota can pump out a jillion of these things with no problem.
The key is that they are much much more efficient than the most efficient four stroke engines that are used for hybrids now. That is why it is a leap.

Of course, it is useless for regular ICE vehicles. But it gives a huge boost to hybrids. It is exciting. Last week, most people were just absolutely positive that battery cars were the last word in efficiency, convenience, etc. This week, that is not so clear. I can’t wait until next week.

Ivor O’Connor

I’ll help. Next week you will realize that this is at best a transition from ICE to BEV.

Rockne O’Bannon

For me, hybrid vs. BEV was a purchase decision. I could have bought either with no problem.
Now if I did not choose a BEV, even with subsidies THEN, then why would I change my mind now? I see hybrids increasing their efficiency by 60% or so in the next few years, and even Elon Musk can only dream about 30% cost reductions on one component of his cars if he invests 5 billion dollars. So… I don’t see things improving much there.

A Tesla STILL takes a long time to charge. I just don’t have time to wait. Who does? Poor people? Are they going to be Tesla’s target market? You know, I do my part for the environment and all that, but there are limits. And a two ton two seater? WIth a titanium plate underneath? How much practicality has to be sacrificed at the altar to get people to choose a BEV?

I guess we will see. Fisker, EcoTotality, Miles Electric, Better Place. All bankrupt. Throw in DeLorean and Tucker Motors.

I really wonder who can look at that and plunk down 5 billion for a gigafactory. Nobody, apparently. I have been waiting for news, and there isn’t any.

Ivor O’Connor

Often people change their views as they learn more about a subject. You seem to have accidentally implied in your writing that you do not change your views: “Now if I did not choose a BEV, even with subsidies THEN, then why would I change my mind now?”

“even Elon Musk can only dream about 30% cost reductions on one component of his cars if he invests 5 billion dollars” No. He clearly said in his last shareholder meeting he expects a 50% reduction or more. And has said batteries are expected to improve by about 50% every 8 years. Maybe you are confusing the 30% reduction in size of the model E over the model S?

“A Tesla STILL takes a long time to charge. I just don’t have time to wait. Who does? Poor people? “ The waiting to charge concept you have all wrong. Here is the correct paradigm you need to integrate your thinking into. For normal commuting and errands the car never needs to be charged. There is no going to the gas station because it is done at night while you sleep. On long trips you get stuck waiting 20 to 30 minutes for a charge. However most people eat every four or so hours and charging works out perfectly. Drive four hours and plugin while you eat and freshen up. It’s really cool how they designed the Tesla to work this way while no other car in existence can do this…

No news on the gigafactory you say? I suppose it depends on where you get your news. I’ve seen lots of news. Maybe you have missed it but he has upped the number of states to be included and also upped the number of places where ground breaking will occur. His long term goals are apparently to not have one gigafactory but to have tens and maybe hundreds of them. Furthermore it looks as if we may have all the material needed for these factories within the USA.

Hopefully with this new information your views will change…

Rockne O’Bannon

That is a really convoluted way of saying the following. “There are no satisfied customers, only closed minded people.” or how about “the customer is always wrong.” I just finished telling you I could have bought a battery car, and didn’t. Your first reaction is to tell me I must be wrong. Thanks for the reveal there. A fanatic who jumps to conclusions. That really helps your credibility.

What you are missing is that Tesla is not improving, and it really can’t improve. Think about it. The number 1 best thing we have out of Tesla lately is “somebody someday might be able to buy a Tesla for about 10% less than they can buy one today.” And that is predicated on a gigafactory that is vapor, workers who are vapor, and supply chains that are vapor.

Actually, what you call news is not what I call news, and I alluded to that earlier. Musk PROMISED that he would be breaking ground at two sites in June. I have seen many reporters accept his promises and his estimates out of hand. I won’t. Do you?

Broken promises. I predict that Tesla will dump the gigafactory.

Ivor O’Connor

Your first two paragraphs left me totally lost. I think maybe you are so worked up you can’t express yourself.

However the third paragraph I could understand. Yes, Musk makes many highly optimistic statements. I call them FUD. Like when Gates used to announce vaporware to destroy the competition and then pretend he was being overly optimistic on his timelines. However maybe this overly optimistic approach is needed to combat the psychophants of crony capitalism?

Regardless of slipping timetables Musk always delivers. Just adjust your expectations and multiply his time estimates by a factor of three and you’ll be ok. He wears so many different hats I’m surprised he has room for them all. With the purchase of a new PV panel manufacturing plant and the launch of the much delayed latest rocket this Monday morning he must never sleep.

Rockne O’Bannon

Uh oh. Now YOU have jumped the shark.
“crony capitalist conspiracy and cabals”

Hey. How do I argue with that? I predict you will be calling me a paid shill for something or other next.

Yeah. FUD, I did not have to use Wikipedia to understand that. But why single out Gates? Steve Jobs used it more than anyone before he got canned and replaced by a Pepsi executive. In fact, one might look at this Toyota announcement and call it FUD, but really, why would Toyota do that? And it is not announcing any new product using this… or even plans to do so.

But Musk? How about the announcement he made last year that he was going to get a second source for batteries? That went on for about three months before it came to nothing. And what possible purpose did he have calling fuel cell vehicles fool cell vehicles? FUD. And what about using expletives to do the same thing? How does that court rationality? It doesn’t. It is FUD. This year, the promises were a gigafactory and sales in China. But the gigafactory is vapor, and China operations are stalled by a trademark dispute. And it is July. Musk always delivers? Ouch. Enron always delivered too.

I think that the gigafactory is FUD. He wants to scare battery manufacturers into investing in his company. Considering that he has nobody with expertise in manufacturing, it is no surprise that it is not working.

He has a 20 something wife and five boys. If he never sleeps and runs three other companies, is he really the guy who should be running this multibillion dollar company? I would rather have Fonzie calling the shots.

Ivor O’Connor

When you quote somebody you are suppose to use their words and not make up stuff for them. I would appreciate it if you would quit making stuff up. But why stop. Please go on and tell me more. It’s interesting in a certain way.

Rockne O’Bannon

Did I paraphrase you? Maybe I was quoting someone else.

Tell you what. Let’s leave this for now… but…

come back and reply to this after Musk announces that he is breaking ground on two gigafactories.

and I will come back and post when he actually finishes one.

I predict that our conversation ends here, without even one more post. And certainly not two.

This should be interesting. Musk has already broken his promise by not announcing this in June, but let’s see if he at least follows through.

kschang

Can you please define “ICE” here? Is that “internal combustion engine”? This is still internal combustion engine, ya know.

The “problem” of applying this to our regular road cars is going to be some sort of a “energy buffer” system that allows the energy to be applied when we need it, for acceleration and deceleration.

A regular ICE / transmission combo uses multiple gears and large RPM variance to control the delivery of power, even if the engine RPM range takes the engine out of its most efficient zone. CVT alleviates that somewhat.

A electric / ICE hybrid use the batteries (and the alternator/motor combo) as an energy buffer between the wheels and the engine to keep the engine mostly in the efficient zone. However, this conversion process is itself inefficient, and there are a lot of ways you can insert the buffer, resulting in weak hybrid, half hybrid, full hybrid, and other confusing terminologies, depending on where the buffer is used. Honda’s hybrid, with assist on the transmission, is like weak hybrid, while Chevy volt, where the ICE does NOT drive the wheels, but ONLY makes electricity to be passed to the motors which drives the wheels, is a different way.

This free piston engine seem to be best employed in small generators, and when that is proven, deployed as “range-extending power packs” for battery-based electric vehicles. (that is, until supercapacitors came along and replace the batteries as the energy storage medium)

Pickybugger

Why not create a nuclear based system that makes coal for coal power stations! =P

Pickybugger

I have an even better (dumber) idea! Why not hunt down and kill all the whales we can find then use the blubber to hose down Japanese whaling ships and set them on fire… that will stop them whaling =D

dc

or we could emulate Captain Waddell’s heroic attack on the whaling fleet. Few people today realize that the Confederate Navy lead the first, and most successful, anti-whaling effort. Hint: real cannons work a lot better than a fire hose.

Pickybugger

Maybe that would send a stronger message… no means NO!

kschang

I think you read the pictures wrong. It’s the whaling ships hosing down the green ships.

dc

and how does that change what I said? To me it only makes my idea stronger. The CSS just sank the whaling fleet, until they found out the South had already lost the war.

http://bienestarmutuo.org Elisha Bentzi

Just make this like a done, with compresion in one side, combustion in another side. Free your mind.

btc909

Get the combustion engine off of the drive wheels. Been saying that forever. Of course without the drive-line stresses the auto maintenance / parts suppliers won’t be happy about this.

Mangap

We also need new battery technology. The current battery are too old. And too heavy. I hope new battery technology coming soon and will make electric car much better and popular

Rockne O’Bannon

Hope floats. Batteries don’t.

MarvinQ Acme

Cylinder one mixes the air & fuel and sends it to the second cylinder which detonates it and extracts the power. That is the simplest way to make a two stroke engine cleaner than a four stroke, there are others, such as this article from the Society of Automotive Engineers demonstrates: http://articles.sae.org/11808/

Friedrich

It is still a net energy loss ——- one engine to generate electricity to run a second motor uses more energy than one engine delivering power to the car.

Rockne O’Bannon

Not a loss, and not necessarily even a reduction in what we have now.
Think about it, and you know it is true.
A small engine feeding a battery is going to be more efficient than a huge engine delivering power to the car directly. We know that.
So now we have a more efficient engine feeding a battery.

So we started with a normal Prius. They improved it by a few percent with software. Then they improved it by 10% with a better inverter. Next they are going to improve it by 50% or so with these new generating engines. This is a big leap. Very exciting. 80 mpg? And think of the weight reduction.

I don’t know how non-hybrids are going to match that.

kschang

Batteries are not 100% efficient, and takes a lot of rare earth minerals to make, plus the batteries and other electric and electronic components.

Hybrids are more efficient due to the ‘energy recovery’ systems, and they don’t recover *that* much energy over non-hybrids, esp. in steady driving environments where little energy can be recovered, such as highway driving.

Rockne O’Bannon

You have a real talent for oversimplification.

Not 100% efficient? Wow. Really? You spout that like you just found that out. I think I learned that in about 1975. Anyway, it does not matter because batteries never have been 100% efficient, nobody said they were, and they don’t have to be, so the point is meaningless.
Rare earth minerals? Not really a problem. People are making plenty of batteries every day, and rare earths are not that rare. In fact, there is a glut on the market right now, which is sinking companies like Molycorp.
Plus the batteries? Your grammar in that sentence is seriously messed up.

Hybrids are not efficient solely or even mainly because of energy recovery. You go to the back of the class for that one. I can think of about 5 reasons the Prius is extremely efficient, for instance, and battery recovery might rank fourth or fifth. In highway driving, hybrids do extremely well, thank you, mostly because of reasons 1 through 3.
If you do not understand torque, universal differentials, mass minimization, and electric motors, you need to avoid discussions about hybrid vehicles.

kschang

Today’s hybrid vehicles are not that much more fuel efficient than the econoboxes like Geo/Chevy Metro. The main “tricks” are better engine management (thanks to sensors and CPUs), Atkinson Cycle engine, and energy recovery/regen braking, which didn’t exist back then. Any other fuel saving trick are just engineering and can be applied to non-hybrid vehicles.

And you just have to throw in that ad hominem “grammar” bit, eh? Ran out of things to pick on?

Ivor O’Connor

You clearly did not read my previous post here where I did the math for everybody. To summarize this solution would give about 1/3 more mileage than the existing engines.

Garu Derota

Combustion engine in 2014? This is NOT something we need at all.

Rockne O’Bannon

Oh come on. Sure it is. In 2014, people don’t have 70 k for a Tesla. Or 40 k for a Leaf or whatever. And you can bet that all those Chinese won’t have that much moolah sitting around to spend on battery cars anytime soon.

This world needs fuel efficient cars cranked out by the millions, not Elon Musk’s pie in the sky models selling a few thousand a year. Do the math, and you will find that the Prius, a gas burner, has already saved more fuel than Tesla will save in the next 50 years. And clearly, Toyota is not done yet. The name of the game is reducing emissions NOW, not dreaming about how great the future might be.

Ivor O’Connor

According to green car report Tesla is selling 35K cars this year and all of the Prius models together are selling 80K. Or basically Tesla on its second year out is selling half as much as the Prius which has been on the market for 17 years. Looks like Tesla will easily surpass Toyota’s Prius total yearly sales in a few years. Unless you know something the rest of the industry does not know…?

I have sworn off of green car reports and its sister publications because their writers and editors admit that they print PR. So sorry about that. They also have an editorial position that is San Francisco centric. That is not in their stated information, but I was told that in online communications with a writer. Frankly, I just don’t trust them anymore. I did once, but they conveniently forgot to print appropriate disclaimers too many times.

I know there are people who think Tesla is great, and they take forward looking PR as fact. Good luck. That will continue until it doesn’t.
In fact, I do know some things that are not part of Tesla PR and things about the auto industry in general. My opinion is that the Tesla model has no legs.

You know the Volt and the Leaf are outselling Tesla, so not only is Tesla not outselling the Prius, it is not even the leading battery car on the market. They have the highest costs, the lowest sales volume, no dealer networks, and they buy all their batteries from one supplier. But the market cap is higher than all battery car producing operations of all manufacturers put together.

We will see what happens, but I think that competitive pressures are going to pinch their profits, well, forever. Their capital will dry up, and the projects they have planned will have to be cancelled or drastically modified.

Have you heard about the gigafactory? They were supposed to announce groundbreaking in June. It is mid July now. Any news?

Ivor O’Connor

And yet you use numbers without any references? Surely you are not making up numbers?

Rockne O’Bannon

This is huge. Toyota is competing with itself. So what will it be? A Prius that gets 80 mpg, or a zero emission FCV?

Ivor O’Connor

Zero emission FCV? I love this concept of zero emissions. By the way are there any emissions in the creation, storage, and transportation of the hydrogen as compared to say electricity. What would the efficiency ratios be?

Rockne O’Bannon

Wind to hydrogen is ramping up in Germany.
If you think about how much energy is wasted by wind, that is a lot of potential hydrogen right there. Now think about off peak coal and nuclear.
If you think “hydrogen generation” instead of “batteries” and think global instead of US, FCVs will make a lot more sense to you.

Ivor O’Connor

Yes wind is ramping up in Germany and everywhere else.

Yes there is a lot of potential for hydrogen there.

Now if I think off peak power and “hydrogen generation” instead of “batteries” I think we lose 80% of our energy generation. Can we lose 80% of our energy chemically converting water and electricity to hydrogen, packaging it, shipping it, then repackaging it, and then finally using it in a fuel cell? Or ship the power out over existing lines and lose only 20% over the wires and in the battery?

Do you see why it makes no sense at all for general use?

Rockne O’Bannon

Well, let’s look at it another way.
Charge and discharge of a battery eventually destroys the battery. Then you buy a new battery and start all over again. In a Tesla, you pay about 10 bucks each time just for the privilege.

You can talk about “efficiency” all you want, but the power from wind and coal that could be used for hydrogen is being 100% wasted right now. So getting 50% of that back without having to buy a huge battery and run it down on a daily basis is going to be a huge plus for a lot of people.

And I thought all the batteries were going to be used in Teslas. If you are going to use batteries for everything, count on the prices getting way out of hand. Not to mention materials bottlenecks.

And you are still assuming a gigafactory that was supposed to be breaking ground a month ago. It is already behind schedule, and no financing is in sight.

Ivor O’Connor

You like to throw numbers around as facts. You give conclusions without details or references. You have to do better if you want to be taken seriously and get replies.

Rockne O’Bannon

Then don’t reply. Just watch. Wait and see.

I am actually not trying to convince you.
What I am kind of looking forward to is somebody looking at this after Tesla stock goes to 5 or so, after reverse splits. They will say,

“Wow. This Rockne guy was totally right for all the right reasons.”

because there was nobody to do this with Enron, DeLorean, ZZZBest, or any of the electric vehicle scams that have already gone to pot. They fooled investors. They fooled the press. They fooled their accountants. I am keeping my eyes open and calling this whole thing as I see it. Frankly, nobody else is. it is hard to find anybody even questioning concepts such as 5 billion dollar factories in the desert, which is much much less ambitious than what BETTER PLACE was planning before it went bankrupt.

Eventually, everyone will agree with me, so you don’t have to agree now. Just watch. Wait and see. I will never buy or sell a penny of Tesla stock. I will keep saying what needs to be said, though.

And every time somebody says, “But how was I supposed to know?” I will get a really good laugh. So please please don’t agree with me. It will detract from the humorous ending I am building up to.

kschang

2 cylinder… Opposing like a “Boxer” type engine?

Chuck Hunnefield

EXACTLY what I was thinking. Also, I think this could have applications to scale with. For instance, what about a portable power generator, or with the weight reduction, can it be put into an electric plane?

drkennethnoisewater

Build a Junckers Jumo-style version of this, with opposing pistons, electrically-controlled side valves and HCCI.

hod0r

Piston-driven linear electric generators are nothing new, one patent filed in 1925 was granted to the Swiss Noack.

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