More Articles

Ohio's collective-bargaining law would be crushed out of existence if the vote were today, a new
poll shows.

Senate Bill 5 trails by 24 points, 56 percent to 32 percent, in the Quinnipiac Poll released
yesterday. The measure, which limits collective bargaining by government employees, is losing big
among all demographic groups except Republicans, and across all regions of the state.

But, of course, Ohio elections are held in the chill of November, not the heat of July.

And the volatility of an off-year election could change a lot in the next 2 1/2 months, said
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Because the Nov. 8 vote will take place in "an election that is not usually focused on,"
predicting who does - and doesn't - show up at the polls will be difficult, he said.

"The folks who want to repeal Senate Bill 5 are doing a pretty good job of getting their message
out," Brown said. As in most statewide elections, however, both sides' TV ad campaigns will be
vital.

The Connecticut university's poll also shows that Ohioans' approval of Gov. John Kasich's job
performance continues to fall. An even 50 percent of voters now disapprove, the highest rate during
his six-plus months in office. Even white evangelical Christians, a traditional GOP group of which
Kasich counts himself a member, are almost evenly divided on his performance.

"Voters in Ohio are unhappy with what is happening in state government under the new
administration," Brown said.

Senate Bill 5 is a big reason. When asked about limiting collective bargaining for public
employees, voters were opposed by 7 points in March, 12 points in May and 18 points in the latest
poll.

"The Quinnipiac Poll continues to prove that Ohioans understand SB 5 is a bad bill, passed by
extreme politicians against the will of the people," said Melissa Fazekas, spokeswoman for We Are
Ohio, the group pushing a referendum on the law.

"SB 5 is not about shared sacrifice or fixing the budget. Ohioans see it for what it really is,
an attack on hardworking firefighters, teachers, nurses and police officers. With more than 900,000
valid signatures recorded by county boards of elections and the results of today's poll, we look
forward to allowing citizens the opportunity to repeal SB 5 in November."

The secretary of state's office has until Tuesday to declare the official number of valid
signatures; fewer than 232,000 are needed to put the referendum on the ballot.

Supporters of the law took solace from the backing that voters gave some of its provisions.

"Ohioans continue to show strong support for many of the fundamental reforms in Senate Bill 5,
and that support will grow as we cut through the misinformation being spread by the union bosses
and their political allies," said Jason Mauk, spokesman for Build a Better Ohio, which wants to
preserve the law.

"Our families and communities are struggling, and we can't expect to create jobs in Ohio and
grow our economy if we don't get the cost of government under control. We can keep doing business
as usual and get the same results, or we can give these reforms a chance to get us out of the ditch
and back on the road to prosperity."

In other findings, Ohioans, by 48 percent to 45 percent, support a possible November ballot
issue that seeks to overturn in Ohio the section of the new federal health-care law that would
require nearly all Americans to have health insurance or pay a fine.

And by almost 4 to 1, Ohioans back legislation that would require voters to show a photo ID
before voting.

The poll of 1,659 registered Ohio voters by land telephone and cellphone from July 12 through
Monday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points. The partisan
breakdown of the respondents: Democrat, 34 percent; Republican, 27 percent; independent, 30
percent; other, 8 percent.