Another polls shows a big McDonnell lead

A new poll out this evening from the Virginian-Pilot, WVEC television, the ABC affiliate in the Hampton Roads area and Christopher Newport University shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a hefty lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in the race for governor.

The poll is out this evening but involved interviews with 506 likely voters from Oct. 8 to 13. It showed McDonnell with a 14 point lead over Deeds, leading the Democrat by 44 to 30 percent. But the poll also showed that 22 percent of likely voters were undecided, a figure that would mean the race remains far from decided. And it's worth recalling that the poll is now a week old.

CNU professor Quentin Kidd told the television station that one reason the poll indicates so many undecided voters is that the results do not included so-called "leaners," people who told the pollsters that they their decision was not entirely set but they were leaning one way or the other.

"Anyone who counts Deeds out at this point is crazy," said Kidd, the poll's director.

The poll also indicated that two-thirds of likely voters said that McDonnell's controversial 1989 master's thesis wouldn't affect their vote.

Even with leaners, that poll would have a disproportionately high number of undecideds. The poll is clearly methodologically flawed. That Quentin Kidd is managing the poll and doesn't grasp this, means that he shouldn't manage the poll one second more and that he probably should not be teaching students in general. This is a public opinion research 101 issue.