Analysis: Putin will be smiling at US missile shield decision

Vladimir Putin will allow himself one of his trademark thin-lipped smiles
following Washington's decision to scrap plans for a missile defence shield
in Eastern Europe.

By Andrew Osborn in Moscow

6:38PM BST 17 Sep 2009

Mr Putin had repeatedly said "net" to the US initiative, arguing it had unacceptable implications for Russia's national security.

Widely trailed but highly significant, President Obama's decision hands the Kremlin a coup that will boost Mr Putin's influence at home and abroad.

Never mind that the Americans may have genuinely concluded that they did not need the shield. It is raw perception that counts.

The US about-turn therefore represents a qualitative step change in the two countries' relationship, an upgrade that sees diplomatic nicety become substance. Barack Obama's diplomatic "reset" with Russia now has real teeth.

Pointedly, the Russians have already interpreted the decision as a message they have been keenly waiting for: That the White House takes Russia, the world's largest country, seriously.

For the Kremlin's spin doctors, it is as if all their Christmases have come at once. In the coming days, weeks and months, ordinary Russians will be told that the policy reversal is definitive proof that Russia is once again a serious player on the world stage.

The big question now though is what if anything is Russia ready to do in return.

Washington has a meaty wish list. It wants Russia to back tough sanctions against Iran to curb the Islamic Republic's alleged nuclear weapons ambitions. It would also like Russia to make deep cuts in its own nuclear arsenal when it comes to renegotiating a key arms control treaty due to expire in December. And last, but not least, it wants Russia's continued co-operation in helping Washington keep its troops in Afghanistan well supplied.

Iran will be the toughest issue to crack. The Russian government has so far appeared split on the sanctions issue with Mr Putin strongly opposing the idea and President Dmitry Medvedev apparently remaining open to such a demarche. Russia has embraced Iran as strongly as the US has shunned it. It has helped Iran construct its first nuclear reactor, sold it arms, and publicly defended its right to develop nuclear energy. It has never endorsed the idea of a nuclear-armed Iran, however, and is known to have grave misgivings about such a prospect. Few doubt that Kremlin pressure, even if it is applied behind the scenes, could yield real results.

There are some though, notably in the former Soviet bloc, who will be wondering whether the US is being too accommodating to Moscow. Many politicians in the missile shield's putative host countries – Poland and the Czech Republic – will undoubtedly feel jilted by Washington. They had already begun to voice concerns that Washington's reset with Moscow would come at their expense. For many, this move is likely to be seen as a disappointing confirmation of that.

There will be fears too that the Kremlin will see this as a vindication of its uncompromising stance on the shield issue and be tempted to be equally uncompromising on other issues. Will the Russians be magnanimous in victory?

Or will they, as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said in the past, choose to frame the decision as an overdue correction of a Bush-era mistake rather than a real concession that requires reciprocity. That remains the 64,000 ruble question.