Archive for January 2011

It was suggested to me that the Irish Times had a poll coming out tomorrow, and I was holding off the until the details of that came out, in order to do a ‘poll of polls’ constituency-by-constituency projection, as there’d be little point in dong 3 very similar posts like that within 2 days. There’s no sign of that at this stage (11:20 pm) and so it looks like that was a bum steer. I’ll post one based on the two out today on Monday evening (unless it’s leaked early enough on Monday, in which case I’ll do one based on all three).

On other matters, as mentioned previously, I’m running two predictions competitions for the GE, one for predictions in the first week of the campaign, and the other with predictions made in the last week. Both prizes will be a small donation to a charity chosen by the winners (so you can maintain your anonymity). I’ve put together a spreadsheet that will allow you give your percentage and seat predictions for each party in each constituency, in a format that will make it easy for me to pick out the winner if there are a lot of entrants. In both competitions, the winner will be the person who is out by the smallest total amount in the party seat totals for each constituency – the party vote levels in each constituency is the tie breaker.

I’ve also developed a spreadsheet for the day of the count that should put us ahead of the curve in terms of interpreting early tallies, and I’ll be filling you in more about this over the next week or two.

Anyways, work in the morning. Hopefully you’ll find tomorrows post interesting, and you’ll all enter the competition.

A few polls are expected in the next 48-72 hours – first off the blocks to be leaked is the Lansdowne poll commissioned by the Sindo (apparently showing what they really think of the credibility of Quantum Research).

According to the Twittersphere, the figures are;

FF 16%
FG 34%
LP 24%
SF 10%
GP 1%
OTH 15%

I’ve run this through the spreadsheet and come up with the following figures

FF 19 seats
FG 62 seats
LP 54 seats
SF 8 seats
GP nada
OTH 23 seats

Given Lansdowne are taken less frequently, it’s hard to comment too much on the trends here, but it does appear that FF have made some gains, mainly at the expense of SF, but also to the detriment of LP, FG and GP.

Am going out later (to a real life, rather than political, pantomime) so I don’t know whether I’ll catch the RedC figures. When I do I’ll obviously post for them, and will do a more in depth analysis following this. I’ll also be posting details of a prediction competition in the next day or so (no big prizes, I’m afraid, but a donation to a charity of the winner’s choice, just to make a bit more interesting….)

For what it’s worth, my initial reaction is that FF are lower in this than I’d have expected, given the honeymoon effect new leaders can generally bank upon, and this may be because we are so close to a GE. FG will be glad to be in a position of a clear lead, but will be nervous that they don’t have clear water between themselves and LP, given LP may expect better transfers from SF and OTH.

Well, last weeks RedC poll was pulled (understandably) as a result of the political upheavals making it pointless. While some ppl had already tweeted about being polled, it made little sense to continue spending money on a poll that wouldn’t have much value.

This appears not to have bothered the Sindo, who have ‘commissioned’ another poll from Quantum ‘Research’. Most of you will be aware of my reservations regarding QR ‘polls’….

First off, there was someone on politics.ie claiming to be one of those polled, so it’s possible there was a poll of sorts actually conducted (although that doesn’t prove anything). However, with only 200 respondents claimed, the m.o.e. would be over 6% even if true, so it’s credibility is poor before you even look at the results….

And what are they? Well, not quite as mad as I teased here but still not too easy to believe. Excluding Don’t Knows (of only 14%, surprisingly) the figures are as follows (spreadsheet seat projections in brackets)

Where to start? Well FF are about two-thirds of their previous record low, and SF who were tied with them in that poll are tied with them in this also. FF down 5% and SF down by the same in the same poll? Can’t see that…..

Also LP are ahead of FG. Now while RedC have been over-stating FG relative to other companies, and under-stating LP by the same measure, it’ hardly credible that LP could be 15% behind FG in one and over 2% ahead of them in another credible company. Particularly hard to believe is that FG would be about 4% lower in a poll that FF (and SF) are also 5% lower.

No doubt they’ve their reasons to publish this nonsense …. don’t be surprised it a future ‘poll’ they commission shows a ‘swing’ that they make a lot of. In the meantime, let’s wait for the next post-Martin/Lenhen/Hanafin/O’Cuiv poll from MRBI, RedC or Lansdowne.

Given the split in the LP vote it would appear that on these figures. Michael D would make up the 2% on McGuiness on Finlay transfers, and while Crowley might push Bertie ahead, transfers from McGuiness would most likely make the final count a run off between Norris and Higgins (my money on Norris on those figures, although you wouldn’t know for sure where those FF transfers would go).

Party origin of the first preferences (below) is interesting, with Norris most popular among LP, then OTH supporters. Surprisingly, he is as popular among SF voters as FG, although it should be rememebred that there is a FG option on the ballot here, and no SF one.

Michael D comes second to Norris ahead of Fergus Finlay among LP voters, although one presumes if everyone’s favourite Galway socialist (sorry Eamon!) is the LP candidate and Norris doesn’t make the ballot Higgins would be the front runner. One can’t however rule out Norris being nominated by another party, particularly as we’ll have a new Oireachtas when the nomination process kicks off. If FG couldn’t get a good candidate together and LP wouldn’t nominate Norris, it would not be surprising to see them take the opportunity to bask in the reflective glory….

Some will be shocked at 12% supporting Bertie, but I’m not. He still has his supporters, and he was canny enough to get out while he could.

As promised, I’ve got back to the Paddy Power/Red C poll to have a closer look at what might be happening ‘under the bonnet’.

Usually, there are no polls this early in the year, and I’ve not been able to track down any historic ones taken before the Christmas Tree comes down on Jan 6th. The reasons for this may be practical as much as questions about their inherent value – schools aren’t back until Monday, and many workplaces are light in staff numbers as a result. However, going by two posters on p.ie it appears that the polling was done by staff outside the country, possibly ICM polling, who were identified as the company when they contacted the oft-polled Future Taoiseach.

To recap, the figures (change from Dec ’10 RedC in brackets) were as follows;

When the (late) January polls were conducted in 2010, they showed an increase in support for FF, and so the drop here will be of some concern to them. While the movement is equal to the margin of error, the drop of 3%, bringing them within 1% of their worst poll ever, is not good. The previous 13% poll could have been seen as a rogue poll, but a sequence of 13-17-14 suggests that they are in the low-to-mid teens, and given this was taken just before the first post-budget payslips came out, and before the VHI price hikes were announced, there seems little basis for them hoping to bounce back any time soon.

FG will be moderately pleased with a 1% increase, even if it is well within the margin of error, but even they must be wondering what they have to do to pull out of the 30-35% range. As I noted last month,

They polled 35% in a RedC poll in November 2008, and in the series of more than 20 RedC polls since then, they have always been 30-35%, except for November ’09 when they hit 36%… Over that period, FF have slid from 30% to 17%, without any net improvement for the main opposition party, and the current decline in the LP FPV rating appears to be all going to SF or ULA, with little likelihood of it ever going to FG.

This is further underlined by a poll where FF are down 3%, LP and down 2%, and yet FG are only up a fifth of that. It appears that if Kenny becomes Taoiseach, it will be because everyone else lost it, rather than he won it.

That said, they appear to have learnt a lesson that LP have forgotten. Some months ago, it was being suggested that LP’s popularity was being generated by their leader being absent from the media. LP apparently took this to heart, and his more regular appearances appear to have lost them the first preferences of some of the electorate, for a time at least. Kenny’s handlers, on the other hand, have tried the same trick, and it appears to work whoever the leader. Perhaps a lesson there that you lose more votes by opening your mouth than by keeping it shut, particularly in the current anti-politics mood. It remains to be seen how much he can be kept under wraps in the course of an election campaign, but to date, the success has been impressive.

LP will be disappointed, whatever the caveats. Sure, it’s within the margin of error, it’s before the Dail resumes, and its before the Budget cutbacks in expenditure become evident (tax increases are always immediately obvious, whereas the cuts in health and education reveal themselves over the months, and these are what LP will hope to gain support over). However, this is on top of the previous poll showing a 4% drop, and in line with the MRBI poll that showed LP drop to 25%. Clearly, LP are losing first preferences to Sinn Fein and most likely ULA, although this poll raises the possibility of GP also. While it would be foolish to panic, they will be eyeing the next RedC and MRBI polls to see if this is the start of a trend, or just the normal up and downs that they like all parties experience in polling. If the RedC/SBP later this month has them below 22%, they may have to consider that they’ll enter the GE campaign 10-15% behind FG, and that would make their key strategy, i.e. making the election a choice between Gilmore and Kenny as Taoiseach, a very hard sell.

SF will be happy with this poll, although it says a lot for their recent progress that they’d not be ecstatic. It means RedC have given them the following sequence 9-11-16-14-14 (and MRBI gave them 15% during that period), which suggests that after a strong surge, they have settled down a little at somewhat over 1.5 times what was, until recently, very good polling for them. Figures suggest that this is in equal measure from FF and LP, indicating that while they have created a niche that could broadly be described left/oppositional, it is capable of attracting some FF voters that the LP and ULA weren’t able to reach. Key for them now is consolidating as much of this vote around good candidates who can deliver the growing goodwill that appears to be awaiting collection, although the further complication, evidenced by the hiding of Kenny, is that they may have to make a decision about how much Adams is seen to lead the campaign. Personally, I believe that the likes of Pearse Doherty is a better spearhead than Adams, who carries baggage that many Southern voters find unsettling. While this may not impact upon those whose first preferences they are after, it will among the transfers they need to pull in seats in places like Carlow-Kilkenny, Laois-Offaly and Wicklow, and so there is some serious thinking for them to do, and not an awful lot of time to do it.

The Greens … well…. I don’t know. It is just in the margin of error, but a jump from 2% to 4% is still some surprise. Maybe if the Govt collapses over some point of principle, they may survive. Or maybe it’s just the poll being a bit out. Who knows? But at least it’ll give them some heart, as if being at 4% could be as low as 1%, it also follows that their previous poll rating of 2% could’ve been as high as 5%. It could be enough to get the canvassers out, anyway…

OTH remain the biggest imponderable. They are up to 12%, which is their highest rating in any poll since 2009. Some of it no doubt is the launch of ULA, which may give some focus to the smaller groups on the Marxist left (and who could be looking at 5 seats on the basis of this poll), but it could also be, in part, a result of Indo Cllrs around the country announcing that they are running, pushing up their numbers, and perhaps the odd party hopeful who didn’t get the nomination and who has announced that they’ll run solo. I do strongly believe though that the next RedC should have a category for ULA, who are probably at least as high as GP nationally, provided voters polled know that SP and PBP are part of the Alliance.

Now, the bits in the report….

Definitely, maybe!
As you’ll remember from last month’s analysis, RedC are now trying to capture the likelihood of voters voting particular parties, although the detailed figures they published were for any preference I commented on this last month, and I don’t know if they were listening, but this month they also give some “definite” first preferences in the narrative of the report, and it will be interesting to track these.

Of the “definite” first preferences, the following is revealed in the narrative part of the report;

FG 18% are definitive (with a further 22% saying they are “likely” to)
LP 14% are definitive (with a similar 22% saying they “may well” do so)
FF 9% are definitive (56% say they definitely won’t)

No figures are revealed for SF, GP or OTH.

This, if accurate, suggests that the FG lead over LP in definite first preferences is barely above the margin of error, and an unusually large proportion of their lead is among a section of the electorate that declare themselves to be unsure. Given they appear to have been supporting FG in the polls for some time now, this appears surprising (to me at least), and it may be that their support for FG is not as soft as they perceive it themselves. But if it is correct, it suggests that RedC are finding that a large portion of their otherwise very stable FG support is still unconvinced. Maybe they’re just drama queens, or want to play hard to get. But maybe it’s something to watch, particularly if a new party is created on the right of the spectrum (see below).

Choice of Taoiseach
There been some comment on p.ie on the apparent decline in Gilmore’s lead in choice of Taoiseach, but this is based on a greater choice being offered on this occasion. The previous time RedC asked this question (also for Paddy Power) it was last month and showed a continued increase in his support, with the results being;

Gilmore 45%
Kenny 24%
Cowen 11%

This time, Gerry Adams is included in the list of options, and given the relatively high popularity Gilmore had in successive polls with SF voters on this question, it’s hardly surprising that his share of declared preferences is significantly lower when the question includes the SF President. This weeks poll gives the following figures;

Gilmore 36%
Kenny 27%
Cowen 10%
Adams 9%

Looking at those figures, the Gilmore drop is 9%, and Adams comes from nowhere to get 9%. While there may be other movement, with Kenny up 3% and Cowen down 1%, it seems that the only real change here is in the question being asked. It’s also worth remembering that it was only a few months ago that Gilmore was high 30s in the question without Adams being an option.

On Adams being on the list, it’s interesting that about 50-60% of SF voters (presumably) want him as Taoiseach, although if most of them are happy with Gilmore as Taoiseach (or have him as their first choice) the preferred Govt for their current supporters is a LP/SF govt, with them pretty happy for it to be led by the former WP man. Strange times.

Choice of Finance Minister
The polls also asked who respondents would choose as Minister for Finance from a list of 7 politicians (1 FF, 3 FG and 3 LP). Splitting the vote this way saw Brian Lenihen top the poll at 19%, following by Bruton (18%), Noonan (16%), Burton (9%), Rabbitte (8%), Gilmore (8%), and Varadkar (5% – really!). The LP options provided are surprising, as the most common proposed alternative to Joan Burton as LP Finance spokesperson is former Finance Minister Ruairi Quinn (regarded by many as the best Finance Minister in recent decades), and I’d be interested as to why he was excluded from the list, given Pat Rabbitte was an option, and I’ve never heard him mentioned in this regard.

Resolved into parties that’s FG 39%, LP 25% and FF 19%, which taken in conjunction with the previous heading, suggests that, given the explicit choice, the greatest number of people want a govt with a LP Taoiseach and a FG Minister for Finance, although this sits oddly with the replies to last month’s RedC, which showed more voters have confidence in LP’s ability to handle the economy than FG. Similarly the MRBI last month showed greater public support for LP’s approach to the deficit than FG’s, so it’s hard to make sense of what the people are saying here, unless they think they can put FG people into the job and expect them to implement another party’s policies, which appears somewhat unreasonable….

Spiral of Silence
This is a device RedC have recently devised to measure “Shy” FF voters, if they exist. They’re not sufficiently convinced that it works (otherwise it would be a straightforward adjustment to their figures), but it does mean they have two sets of numbers, and presumably come the GE, whichever comes closest to the result is the one they’ll trumpet the loudest! According to the report, they calcualte it by taking those who are (a) undecided, or (b) refuse to say how they voted last time. They then re-allocate 50% to the party they voted last time (presumably based on the undecideds!) and 50% to who the rest claim they will vote this time. I’m sure I’m not the only person who can see the shortcomings there……

In December, this saw FF gain 1% each off FG and LP. This month, it takes 1% off FG and SF. A certain poster on p.ie will be delighted, therefore, to hear that the “Shy Tory” syndrome would reduce the gap between FG and LP 😉

A Bit of a Breakdown
As I’ve stated elsewhere, you have to be careful to jump to conclusions about regional figures in one or two polls, as (a) the samples are much smaller, and (b) the requirement to have the right mix in your sample only applies to the national sample, e.g. there may be too many middle class voters in one region and too few in another. I tried doing projections based on regional breakdowns sometime before and it gave me about 8 Indos in Leinster, which showed the limits of this.

For the record however, this showed the following figures for parties in Dublin, RO Leinster, Munster and Connaught-Ulster for the parties;

All caveats applying, this would suggest if accurate that SF are making particular headway outside Leinster, and might suggest that they could fall short of the seats I give them in some Dublin constituencies (notably Dublin NE), but seal the deal in places like Sligo. Other than that, there aren’t any notable deviations outside the larger margin of error that we’d expect from these national figures.

On gender, there’s a remarkably strong gender bias, with men more inclined to vote for the centre-right, and women for the centre-left (in opposition to many international trends), with support for the parties among men and women as follows;

Party-M-F
FG 40-30
LP 19-24
SF 12-15
FF 16-12
GP 3-5
OTH 10-14

Interestingly the trend for women to vote left is mirrored in the OTH columns, which lends support to the idea that this is predominantly left-leaning. The lead of FG/FG over LP/SF/GP/OTH is 56-44% among men, but among women, the figures are reversed, at 42-56%. What this tells us, I suppose, is that women are more conscious of the effects of cuts in services and spending, such as health, education and child benefit, whereas men are more aware of the impact of taxes on their pay packets. And I’m not even going to try to second guess if abortion is in the mix in these figures….

Bad attitudes
Finally, voters were also asked about their attitudes to a number of questions, and agreed (as opposed to disagreed) with the following statements to the following extents;

Govt should have stood down ages ago (62-24)
I’ll never vote FF again “after last year” (51-27)
I’ve less trust in politicians than ever before (66-18)
We shoudl have defaulted rather than take bailout (45-28)*
I’d like to see a younger party leader (57-19)
A new political party is needed to make change (61-25)

*The question regarding default/the bailout is interesting, as it suggests that a majority have a more radical position than most of the main parties, although the extent to which this is thought through, as opposed to a general sentiment, is unclear.

The one on a new party is of course not of great value, as the 61% in favour may all have contradictory views as to what such a party should stand for. Although I still think there’ll be some attempt to fill that gap, the main question being how competent this attempt would be. Given the large component of the 35% FG vote that self-describes as soft, however, one could see them nervous if Chairman Ganley decides that this is the time for him to serve his Fatherland….

Anyways, those are my musings. And I’d just like to end this entry with a quite sincere “best wishes” to Kenny. I really hope he confounds everyone and pulls off a sensational campaign this year, with a historic victory.

As I indicated the other week, I’ve been developing a template report for the constituency round-up. I hadn’t expected this to be needed for another couple of weeks, but needs must ….. if you see anything that needs tidying up please let me know so I can catch it for future reports.

There’s also a lot of in-depth stuff I want to look at in the national figures, I’ll not get that done this evening but will by tomorrow evening. But this should be enough to be getting on with for now….

Assuming a good internal SF transfer, I see former Euro-hopeful Funchion, who polled creditably in ’09, taking one FF seat, FG taking another, and LP’s Phelan taking the GP seat (insofar as one can hypothecate thse things). Should they not split it well, it’ll be between FG3 or LP2, depending on who has split their vote most advantageously, but at this stage I’d call it SF.

Local developments:
Popular FF TD and Defence Minister Tony Kileen is retiring. The intentions of former IND FF TD James Breen who lost his seat in 2007 are unclear, but I’m assuming that he’s running. Former Independent MEP candidate Michael McNamara who polled 10,000 Clare votes in 2009 has joined the LP and will be seeking a seat.

Local developments:
A population of c. 4,250 moves out for CNC. Both LP and FG will be hopeful of picking up a FF seat here. Ned O’Keefe has moved to put some distance between himself and the Govt, and this could see Michael join Bertie, Dermot (and Noel?) Aherns in the ranks of former TDs

Local developments:
Boundary revisions see the new voters from Cork E (above) and also a transfer of a population of c.4,300 from Cork NW, making it a slightly more rural constituency. Noel O’Flynn has attempted to distance himself from the govt. Lynch has a strong running mate in John Gilroy, who may poll ahead of her.

Comments
FF lose both seats, with one going to FG, and the other to the winner of a scramble between LP2, SF and SP. It looks like SF to me on these figures, but very tight and could go to any of them, even if there is no movement from these FPV figures.

One FF seat definitely gone, and the second is up for grabs, and on these figures they’d lose both, with SF getting a seat by a decent margin, and Paula Desmond taking the second, although FG3 would also fancy their chances on these figures if they split their vote extremely well and LP split theirs badly.

Local developments:
Jim McDaid has retired. Former Indo, Cllr Jimmy Harte, has joined LP and will be their candidate. 4 electoral divisions (pop of 2,351) in the former Stranorlar Rural district are being transfered to South West.

Local developments:
Gallagher has gone to the EP, and SF’s Pearse Doherty won the by-election by a country mile. McGinley is rumoured to be retiring. As already mentioned, rural Stranorlar districts are moved from North East

On these figures, it would be close, and I ran the count projection 3 times. On balance, I think FF would just hold on if these were the FPVs, but by a very small margin, and would be elected probably beating Pringle, but without reaching the quota. Very very close, though, and depending on how the SF transfers pan out it could go either way.

FF collapse, and on these figures, Donoghue’s dream finally comes true (although by a very narrow margin…). The other FF seat is taken by Mary-Lou. Clancy misses out by less than 1%, and I’d also look out for Perry who may surprise everyone here if he runs.

Local developments:
Mary Harney is expected to retire. Ex-Indo cllr Derek Keating has joined FG ticket with fellow 2007 hopeful Frances FitzGerald. LP have selected former Mayor Robert Dowds to their ticket alongside sitting TD Joanna Tuffy, and SF candidate will be former Belfast City Cllr Eoin O’Broin. Other than that, not much….

Local developments:
A large chunk of Swords (pop c. 12,800) has left for Dublin West, and another area around Portmarnock (pop. c. 9,000) goes to NE, making life harder for Kennedy and SP hopeful Clare Daly. Sargant is no longer GP leader.

Local developments:
An area around Edenmore (pop. c. 2,750) arrives from NE. Callelly gone. McGrath has been like Italy during WWII, and is at least ending the phoney war on the winning side – former GP candidate Browen Maher now in the LP

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new area in Portmarnock, but losing voters in Edenmore. Killian Forde has left SF for LP, but failed to get the nomination ahead of Broughan and Sean Kenny (the ticket that took 2 seats in 1992!).

Veteran SF campaigner Larry O’Toole takes the seat vacated by Michael Woods. Sean Kenny would be the runner up, and could be expected to do well on transfers, but SF too close to a quota to catch on these figures.

Local developments:
Apparently worried that Bill Tormey doesn’t send out the appropriate image for FG in DNW, they have added Clontarf-based LM Gerry Breen to the ticket, which should be good for a laugh, and may see Tormey having at least the bragging rights of being the leading FG candidate after the election. LP have added John Lyons to a ticket that will be aiming for 2 seats.

Local developments:
Seamus Brennan has passed away, and politically George Lee came and did the same. Tom Kitt insists that he is retiring. A re-drawing of the constituency has seen a largely (upper) middle class area (pop c. 11,700) move in from Dun Laoghaire, and speculation persists that one of the FF TDs will follow it, although both Andrews and Hanafin deny it to date.

FF marginally hold one of their seats, with the other and GP seats both going to LP, although Ryan could hold off the challenge and take the one Govt seat that appears to be here on these figures, particularly if he does OK on SF and OTH transfers. He could conceivably be caught by SF however, so he’ll take cold comfort from these figures (if he’s reading them, that is!)

Local developments:
Sean Ardagh is retiring, as is Mary Upton, whose nephew Henry, son of the late Pat Upton, will join Eric Byrne (very narrow loser here in ’07) and Micahel Conaghan as LP try to pull off 3 seats. Their biggest difficulty is likely to be ULA cllr Joan Collins, who will be supported by former opponent Brid Smith of the SWP/PBP.

FF lose both seats, one to LP, who narrowly lose out to Joan Collins for the last seat. Still, a sign of the times that they would go from narrowly missing a second seat to narrowly missing a third. No doubt this would be a happy outcome for Collins, who was expelled from LP when in the Militant Tendency.

On these figures, Gormely pips Andrews to the last seat, as whichever of them pulls ahead of the other would have enough Govt transfers to take the seat, with LP taking the seat dropped by Andrews, in part on SF transfers.

Local developments:
Rabbitte is no longer LP leader. None of the last 3 poll toppers were elected here in the following election, which may cause Conor Lenihen some anxiety, and he is reputedly seeking to run in Dub Sth.

Local developments:
Brian Lenihan’s health problems are likely to result in a sympathy vote, and so I’ve increased the base FF vote in the spreadsheet to 50%. Joe Higgins will run, following his successful foray in the recent EP elections. LP only allowed their selection convention pick one candidate (Joan Burton) and so the running mate chosen might not be Patrick Nulty. An additional seat, with voters moved in from Swords from Dublin North.

Local developments:
One less seat to go round with the boundary review, and a chunk of the consitiuency (largely FG, FF and PD voting) has left for Dub Sth. Eamon Gilmore has become LP leader, and has a high profile running mate in Ivana Bacik, who will challenge strongly for a seat, although FG’s Mary Mitchell-O’Connor and ULA’s Richard Boyd-Barrett will both be hopeful of beating her to it. 3 Ministers in Hanafin, Barry Andrews and Ciaran Cuffe are all up against it, although Hanafin or Andrews may yet stand in Dublin South

Likely candidates:
FF Hanafin and/or Andrews (although if FF are still south of 25% when the election is announced, expect one of them to jump)
FG Barrett, Mitchell-O’Connor
LP Gilmore, Bacik
GP Cuffe
OTH Richard Boyd-Barrett (SWP/ULA)

FF running both TDs lose both, one to LP and one to the constituency revision, with RBB taking Cuffe’s seat. While FG would fancy their chances, there appear to be insufficient transfers for them to take the seat, with GP and SF voters likely to lean left with their preferences, and FF unlikely to go anywhere in particular.

Local developments:
FG TDs Paul Connaghton and Ulick Burke have both announced thier retirements, and so interim “let’s get this party ended” PD leader Ciaran Cannon seems likely to be in the next Dail. Paddy McHugh is unlikely to run, but another indo (Sean Canney) is likely to take his place on the ticket.

A tough one to call, given the multiplicity of candidates, but I have SF and GP transfers pushing LP1 ahead of FF and FG3, to see him/her join Canney and 2 FG TDs returned to the Dail. Poor internal LP transfers would hand their seat to FG3 (whoever that is….)

On these figures, a uniform swing would see FF lose both seats, one to FG and the other to Indo Connolly. Of course, this may be an area they overperform their national result, but if so they’ve less votes elsewhere making up that 14%.

Local developments:
Boundary changes are significnat enough to warrant a name change for the old Kerry Nth – and area with a population of c.5,000 moves to kerry Sth, with a chunk of Western Limericak (pop. c. 13,000) moves intot he new constituency. Arthur Spring seeking to bring a third generation of the dynasty to Kerry North

Local developments:
As mentioned above, new voters arrive from Kerry Nth. The cap is being passed on to the next generation, with Michael Healy-Rae standing in his father’s stead. There are rumours of another Indo standing to test how much of that vote will stay in the family fold, and there has been suggestions that Toireasa Ferris might move south to contest this constituency for SF. LP have decided against a dynastic candidate, by fielding a non-Moynihan, and it will be interesting to see how much of that vote was LP.

Local developments:
Former Minister Sean Power has tried to put some distance between himself and the FF leadership. Jack Wall has stoutly resisted to date having to accept a running mate, and is believed to be hoping to pass the seat on to his son the following election. FG loking to win back a seat here for the first time since Alan Dukes was their local man.

Local developments:
A population of c.4,000 in Roscrea is moved from here to Tipp Nth. Big leaders bonus here for Brian Cowen. LP will be hoping that the poor LP track record here since Pat Gallagher quit politics will be reversed by their selection of former Leinster Express editor John Whelan, although the local row this provoked may not help him, whatever Oscar Wilde said about bad publicity…… FG lose Olywn Enright and got almost exactly their national average vote here last time, but are talking up their chances of a third seat.

Local developments:
Drops a seat and renamed from Limerick East, with FG-friendly rural wards (pop. c.17,000) deserting Kieran O’Donnell for the County. Willie O’Dea now hoping his removal from cabinet over slandering SF candidate Maurice Quinlivan will distance him from the Govt, and Quinlivan will doubtless be hoping that the trick of winning a court case will give him the sort of boost that helped Pearse Doherty. Both FF and FG may end up dropping a seat, with their better long-term bets (in Power and O’Donnell) losing out to men who probably will be contesting their final GE, and Jan O’Sullivan may have to split her vote generously if she is to pull in running mate Joe Leddin.

Well, hard to accept for some, but if FF are on a third of their ’07 vote, they are going to be down at least that in urban areas, and more so if the swing is lower in the rural constituencies (which most ppl argue will be the case). This puts both FF TDs out here, one at the expense of LP, and the other as part of the revision, with O’Donnell holding on.

Local developments:
Gains a bit from Limerick East, and loses a bit to Kerry North. The third seat has done funny things here over the years, going to the PDs, and going to FG2 on one occasion as a result of IND FF candidates splitting the FF vote oddly once, and young LP candidate James Heffernan, who polled very well in the ’09 LEs will be hoping to provide the surprise here this time.

Local developments:
Former PD TD, Longford-based Mae Sexton, has provoked deja-vu among those who remember Helena McAuliffe Ennis, and apoplexy among others, by joining LP, and is well placed to take Peter Kelly’s seat if it stays in Longford, although FG have high hopes that Nicky McFadden will bring it across the county line to Westmeath.

Close, but the addition of gender and county balance to the LP ticket here should be enough to take a second seat, even if the 3 FG candidates take a higher FPV, given the SF transfers that will be on offer.

Local developments:
Hardly anything here really…. 😉 Dermot Ahern and Arthur Morgan are retiring, Seamus Kirk won’t be on the ballot as Ceann Comhairle, Gerry Adams seeks a seat in a national parliament (that he’d take) for the first time, LP looking to take the seat that Michael Bell held in the 80s, assisted not just by a Gilmore Gale but also a large chunk of Meath adjacent to Drogheda (pop. c.17,500) which perviously voted LP in large measure and which Drogheda based Ged Nash will be hoping will seal the deal for him.

Local developments:
We need more politicians with convictions, they say, but they’re losing one here, with the retirement of Beverly Cooper-Flynn – much to the relief, one imagines, of Dara Calleary who should now be safe. FG leader Enda Kenny will again try for the feat of a 4th seat that they weren’t a million miles off last time, but will be hampered by the decision of ex Indo TD Dr Jerry Cowley to join a surging LP, and also any Adams Avalanche. Ex-LP member and Indo cllr Michael Kilcoyne may be the wild card here, although the smart money would appear to have him kingmaker in a battle between LP and SF for the final seat.

Local developments:
The constituency loses the chunk to Louth and gains c.6.750 votes around Kells from Meath W, dropping the LP vote a percentage point or two. FF will no doubt be hoping that if they hold a seat here, it will be the up and coming Byrne, and not Mary Wallace, who it is rumoured is being leant on by HQ to retire

Local developments:
Loses Kells to Meath E. This combined with the retirement of Noel Dempsey is expected to give a boost to Navan-based Jenny McHugh who lives in that town and is principal of a local National School. FG and SF both have high hopes here also, with the latter talking up new canididate Peadar Toibin’s chances. Famously, FG supporter Sarah Carey just before the ’07 election said that if Graeme Geraghty ran for the Communist Party in Meath he would be elected, however he ran for FG and got 3%, so perhaps the marxist left will take a seat here in 2011.

Local developments:
A population of c.3,400 moves from the Leitrim part of this constituency to Sligo-N.Leitrim. Michael Finneran has surprised many by announcing his retirement. Indo candidate John Kelly did very well here in ’07, polling 10%, and LP will hope that his running under their banner will see them pull off an historic seat here. SF however got 4 times as many votes as their candidate last time, and if SF do very well this time, they will be hard to beat. Add to the mix Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who was elected in Kelly’s ward (alebeit with a much lower vote) in ’09, and who is Roscommon’s Mayor, a certain FG seat, a very likely FG 2nd seat, the locally resented partition of Leitrim, and FF hoping to hold on to what was Finneran’s seat, and this could be a long – and contested count.

Finneran may have known something …. FF lose their seat here to SF, who hold off a strong challenge from Kelly who manages to stay ahead of Flanagan, and receive decent transfers from his local rival, but SF are just too far ahead on these figures.

Local developments:
Again there are local resentments about the partitiion of Leitrim between two constituencies unlikely to return a TD from that county. Here the two FF TDs are, somewhat bizarrely, not taking the FF whip, but voting with the government on every issue. Jimmy Devins is unlikely to run again, leaving the task of holding the FF seat to his fellow “rebel” (ahem) Eamon Scanlon. FG2 will be hopeful of taking a seat, as will LP’s Susan O’Keefe, who polled respectably in Ireland-West in the Euros, but SF will consider themselves favourites to take a seat in this constituency if there is a surge to their party, particulary as they got a decent vote here even when polling 1-2% nationally. The dark horse will be Declan Bree, if he runs (reputedly under the ULA banner), having taken a seat in the Sping Tide for LP, but since cast aside his Tankie principals for an alliance dominated by Trotskyists.

Local developments:
Lowry Country. More? Oh, well Alan Kelly is running for LP, and so a rainforest of leaflets promoting him should go through the local letterboxes. But other than that, no, sorry. I’ve got nothing.

Local developments:
Martin Cullen has retired, and FG have high hopes for Paudge Coffey to take his seat. This appears to be an exception to the LP rule where sitting TD will be required to have a running mate although if ex-WP cllr John Halligan signed up I could see him added to the ticket

Local developments:
Contrary to earlier rumours, I’m now told that ex-SF candidate John Dwyer will be running as an Independent left-wing candidate, rather than hitch his wagon to the ULA. The outcome here could depend on whether Brendan Howlin splits his vote, as otherwise his running mate Pat Cody could lose out to SF, Dwyer or, conceivably, FG3. FF got just over their national vote here last time, and so require a significant recovery if Browne and Connick are to be doing more than fighting over a single seat.

FF lose a seat to SF, who edges ahead of Cody (LP) and FG3 on OTH transfers. I’d not write off Dwyer though, and if he holds on to more of the SF vote than I’ve given him here, he could be in the running also.

Local developments:
Joe Behan has since reigned from FF in protest over the early phase of the cuts, although since then has supported much harsher measures, and might decide against running again. Liz McManus has retired, and her son didn’t make it on the 3 person ticket that seems well balanced in terms of geography. The probable absence of Deirdre De Burca will be another factor, and SF members here have been talking up their chances.