No Rest For Turd

It's been a long day and a long week. I did not intend to add more content tonight...that is until I took a few minutes to read Harvey. There, I found two very important items that I knew couldn't wait till morning.

One of the things we failed to notice prior to the unexpected beatdown in gold in September was that lease rates had moved significantly into negative territory prior to the attack. One of the articles we referenced back then was this one, linked below:

Anyway, here's the point. At -0.5%, lease rates are again near the level they were when gold was savagely attacked last September. One could say that the current, European dollar funding shortage is to blame. Maybe it is and maybe this is just a temporary phenomenon that will not impact the short-term price of gold. However, maybe its a precursor of another big selloff. The banks on the other end of the lease can use the borrowed gold to flood the market with sell orders. I took a bit of grief for not accurately predicting and warning of the September massacre. If gold crashes again over the next few days, don't say you weren't warned this time.

Next, a great piece from Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management. Like most of us, I was first exposed to Egon through ZH. Clearly, the guy gets it. Please take time to read this in its entirety.

DEUS EX MACHINA

by Egon von Greyerz – December 2011

With most of the world’s major economies as well as the financial system bankrupt, there is only one solution that can save the world economy. Like in the Greek tragedies, Deus ex Machina is now the only way that the world can avoid a total economic collapse. This would involve God being lowered down onto the world stage and miraculously saving the plot.

For those few who believe in this, may God bless them. But since this is a very unlikely solution most people will instead rely on governments and central banks to save us. But how can anyone possibly believe that totally incompetent and clueless politicians and central bankers could solve anything. They created the problem in the first place and are therefore totally unsuitable to play the role of Deus. The main objective of governments is to stay in power and thus to buy votes. Therefore they are incapable of taking the right decisions. And the opposition, aspiring to power is even less suitable since they will lie through their teeth and promise the earth in order to be elected. (We know that there are exceptions like Ron Paul, but the voters will most probably find his medicine too strong to swallow.)

What about central bankers, can’t they save us? Unfortunately any sensible person who becomes a central banker loses all his senses and becomes a prisoner of the political system.

Solution?

So if there is no Deus ex Machina and if governments or bankers can’t rescue the world, who can and what is the solution. Let us return to the wise von Mises to look at the options available now:

“THERE IS NO MEANS OF AVOIDING THE FINAL COLLAPSE OF A BOOM BROUGHT ABOUT BY CREDIT EXPANSION. THE ALTERNATIVE IS ONLY WHETHER THE CRISIS SHOULD COME SOONER AS A RESULT OF A VOLUNTARY ABANDONMENT OF FURTHER CREDIT EXPANSION, OR LATER AS A FINAL OR TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF THE CURRENCY SYSTEM INVOLVED”

Ludwig von Mises

Mises is absolutely correct:“There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion”. Whatever politicians, bankers, economists or others experts say, there is no solution to this crisis.We have reached the end of the road and are now staring into the abyss.

The credit manufacturing system that started in 1913 when the Fed was founded, began its terminal phase in 1971 when Nixon abolished gold backing of the dollar. It has been clear to us for at least 20 years that the outcome was inevitable. It was never a question of “if” but only “when” it would happen. It is now clear to us that the false prosperity that the world has experienced by printing unlimited amounts of money will very soon come to an end. Thus the “if” and “when” conditions are now satisfied so the remaining question is HOW?

To try to answer this let’s return to Mises: “The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion ….”

To stop the money printing and credit creation would be the only sensible way of ending the failed quasi-capitalist, socialist experiment which is in the process of destroying the structure of the Western world. For almost 100 years we have lived on a system based on debt. This has created a false prosperity as well as false values. The transfer of capital from private enterprise to government by massive taxation is approaching 50% in many countries (see table). The average for 18 industrialised countries is almost 40%. This means that on average 40% of the productive economy is transferred to a non-producing entity (government) which wastes most of the money in the process of redistribution. But not only that, since the state has taken over up to 50% of the economy in these countries, the desire to work, to strive, to take risk and to invent has been taken away from a major part of the population.

For a great many people it is now totally natural to rely on the state for their needs rather than on themselves. And the state needs to borrow/print ever increasing amounts to perpetuate this economy based on an illusion. This situation is totally untenable. Since any additional money printing will only exacerbate the crisis and make the final collapse so much greater, the swiftest solution would be let the financial system implode now. We need to reset the world to a level which is sustainable. The consequences of this implosion would be a collapse of the financial system and a reset of debt to zero. Although this is unthinkable to any government or politician, it would be by far the quickest way to get the world back on its feet with no major debts, minimal government interference, and no central bank that can print money. It would be like a forest fire getting rid of all the dead wood. Out of that would rise masses of green shoots in the form of strong unchequered growth. The transition will of course be traumatic and the current generation will experience enormous hardship. But not voluntarily abandoning the money printing now will just delay the inevitable and the consequences will be dramatically greater and affect many future generations.

Anyone who has followed my articles will know my view that governments worldwide are totally incapable of stopping the money printing. This is their only means of staying in power and buying votes. But not only that,this is the only method they know. This has been their patent solution to all economic problems in the last decades. Not that this is new in history. Most empires have resorted to diluting the value of money by reducing the gold/silver content of coins or printing paper money. But as far as I know it has never before been done by so many countries simultaneously to such an extent.

Since there won’t be any voluntary abandonment of credit creation what will the likely outcome be? Again let’s use Mises words: “…… a final or total catastrophe of the currency system involved”. The problem this time is that we are not talking about one currency or one country. No, we are talking about most of the world’s major currencies. We have been used to measuring currencies and economies on a relative basis i.e. against each other. But this is a total fallacy since all major currencies have been in a race to the bottom for the last 100 years. Most currencies have lost between 97% and 99% against real money –GOLD – since 1913. And since 1999, most currencies have lost 80% or more against gold. So paper money has been a very poor measure of wealth in the last 100 years. Governments are creating credit and paper money and consequently through their fraudulent actions “stealing” from the people whilst at the same time increasing the people’s dependence on the state. And the people does not understand that the value of paper money is declining continuously. But gold reveals the deceitful destruction of paper money. This is why governments do not like gold and try to suppress the gold price.

Endless Money Printing – QE

And how will the currency system collapse? The answer to this question is very simple – through endless money printing. There will be no lasting austerity programmes in any country that can print money. Governments are incapable of sticking to austerity measures since in the end that is a guaranteed way of losing power. As power is the main purpose of all governments, they will use any method to retain it. Within the Eurozone, individual countries can of course not print money but the ECB and the IMF will take care of that. So whilst world leaders are procrastinating and bickering in G8, G20 and all other “summit” meetings, it is absolutely guaranteed that the final outcome will be one QE package after the next. Governments and central banks know that without limitless money printing there would be a deflationary collapse of the banking system and world economy.

The table below shows the financing requirements of the PIGS countries in the next few years. Just Italy and Spain will require €1 trillion in the next 4 years and of that 1/2 trillion Euros in 2012. Only printed money will take care of that.

For many years it has been absolutely crystal clear to some of us (sadly a very small minority) that many major sovereign nations are bankrupt as well as the world financial system. Banks are only surviving because they, with the blessing of governments, are allowed to value trillions of dollars of toxic and worthless assets at full value. And on top of that there are more than $1 quadrillion outstanding in derivatives. These are outside the banks’ balance sheets and there are virtually no reserves against them. The banks are netting the value down to virtually nothing and then applying a miniscule reserve against this net amount. First of all, the netting is only valid when the counterparty pays. When there is a counterparty failure, which is very likely in the coming financial collapse, gross remains gross and the $1 quadrillion remains $1 quadrillion. Secondly, a major part of the derivatives are worthless or not protecting the investors as we have seen with for example Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehmans and lately MF Global. MF Global had bought CDs to hedge their investment in Greek debt. But they hadn’t understood what they had bought and it turned out it offered no protection at all.

Hyperinflation

The “final or total catastrophe of the currency system” will occur as a result of the QE or unlimited money printing that will very soon start in the EU, USA, UK, Japan and many more countries. And this currency destruction will lead to hyperinflation as I have stated for many years. Throughout history, substantial government deficits leading to money creation or printing have always been the cause of hyperinflation. Because hyperinflation is always the result of a collapsing currency and not of excess demand.

To any thinking individual, it is totally incomprehensible that governments and central banks believe that an insolvent world can be saved by debt issued by bankrupt nations and then bought by the issuers themselves as there is no other buyer. This is the perfect recipe for self-destruction and “total catastrophe of the system.”

IMF, EU and other failed monstrosities

Time and time again, the world creates massive costly, bureaucratic and unaccountable structures that have idealistic and totally unrealistic objectives.

Take the IMF for example. This is what their mission statement states: “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an organization of 187 countries, working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world.”

If financial stability, high employment, sustainable economic growth and reducing poverty are the objectives of the IMF, then they have failed on every single point. So here we have an organisation that receives/borrows money from mainly bankrupt states and then lends the money to countries that cannot or will not ever repay the funds. And in order to carry out this totally futile task, the IMF takes a major cut in between to finance its costly and failed operation. The world does not need monstrous and costly structures that totally fail in their mission. Thus, the IMF should be closed.

Turning to the EU, they state on their website: “The main objectives of the Union are now to promote peace, the Union’s values and the well-being of its peoples”. There are other stated objectives such as: “sustainable development, based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive social market economy, aiming at full employment and social progress, and a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment.”

The EU or the EEC as it was first called was created in the late 1950s. This was a prosperous period in the world economy based on real growth (not debt). As often is the case, politicians with illusions of grandeur create superstructures which only function in good times. The EU’s main objective of creating peace and well-being of the people is now being severely tested. If we for example asked Spanish youth (50% unemployed) about their well-being or Greek people or the Portuguese etc, we would get a tirade of abuse and complaints about the EU. Instead of “creating peace”, we are seeing major tension within the EU that could lead to serious conflicts. And as to “balanced economic growth and full employment”, this has all come to an end. The false prosperity, mainly based on debt, has also come to an end and the EU can only survive intact with the aid of endless money printing. But even that would only be a temporary reprieve. The EU is a failed experiment which is extremely costly and inefficient. The economic ruin of Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, France etc would not have happened to the same extent without the EU. Like all artificial fiat currencies, the Euro was doomed to fail. Without the Euro, countries like for example Ireland, Spain or Greece would have recovered much faster.

Final or total catastrophe

So we are heading to the final stage or as Mises says a “final or total catastrophe of the currency system involved”. I don’t think that even Mises envisaged at the time that this could involve a major part of the world rather than just one country. This is why this catastrophe will be unprecedented in world history and have consequences that will affect the world economically, socially and geopolitically for a very long time.

Wealth Preservation – Gold

Since 2002 we have advised investors to put up to 50% of their assets into physical gold, stored outside the banking system. Gold has appreciated between 15% and 20% per annum since 2002 depending on the base currency. And most stock markets have declined 70-85% against gold in the last ten years. In spite of this most major investor groups (institutional, funds, asset managers or individuals) own no gold. Gold is money and reflects the total destruction of paper money. But most investors do not understand gold. Common arguments I hear is that “you can’t eat gold” or that “gold pays no return.” It seems thattheseinvestors prefer to eat paper money. And as to the argument that there is no yield on gold, who needs yield on an asset that has massively outperformed all major asset classes in the last 11 years. And if we look at 2011, gold has greatly outperformed stock markets in most major countries. Whilst stock markets are down between 1% and 24% in 2011, gold is up more than 20% against all major currencies. So in real terms (gold) all stock markets are doing very badly but still investors persist in riding these falling trends.

Stock markets will benefit temporarily from QE but it is still our view that they will fall another 90% against gold in the next few years.

The correction in the precious metals is now likely to be over and we should see the metals going to new highs in 2012. I had the pleasure of becoming acquainted with Alf Field at the recent Gold Symposium in Sydney where we were both speakers together with Eric Sprott, John Embry and Ben Davies amongst others. Alf is one of the few in the world, if not the only one, who knows how to apply the Elliott Wave principle successfully to gold. Alf’s next intermediate target is at least $4,500 and the ascent to this target could be rapid. That would probably mean a silver price of $150. These technical forecasts certainly confirm the fundamentals as outlined in this article.

The world is in a total mess and there is absolutely no solution to this unprecedented crisis. The hyperinflationary depression that we will experience in the next few years will totally destroy the majority of the credit based wealth that has been created in the last few decades.

In order to preserve wealth and keep capital intact, it is critical to keep a major part of investment assets in precious metals held outside the banking system. But for investors who continue to follow conventional wisdom, they will sadly find that their investment strategy was merely conventional and contained no wisdom.

6thDecember2011

Matterhorn Asset Management - Switzerland

Hang in there. Stay alert. Be prepared. Anything is possible. TF

p.s. I received this "NewsAlert" from the criminal CME this evening:

News Release Issued: December 7, 2011 6:15 PM EST

CME Group Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend

CHICAGO, Dec. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $1.40 per share, payable December 29, 2011, to shareholders of record December 19, 2011.

A simple check of Yahoo Finance shows that the current number of CME shares outstanding is 66,390,000. Therefore, at $1.40/share, the CME has just declared a $93,000,000 dividend to its shareholders. However, still nothing, zilch, nada for the customers of MFing Global that the CME had vowed to protect. Bastards.

I have Iranian friends, lifelong friends. I'm just an old Scotsman, but a pretty good judge of people. I can tell you the vast majority of Iranians are just like us, share the same values and even enjoy our 'western' way of life. Don't let the small minority of rabid mozzies and mullahs on the media fool you otherwise.

They don't want to invade anyone. They don't want to take over the world. They don't have dual-nationals running the Western Governments, they don't blow up the buildings and aircraft of their 'allies' - in short they are FAR less trouble than some in that region...

These are very clever, resourceful people, with enormous personal pride. Much like the British, and they will prove equally unbeatable if challenged by might, they will rise the occasion and will not be beaten. Back off USA/UK, or you'll get your ass kicked, and deserve it. There is no cause for a fight, just bankers and corporations wanting profit from war yet again.

I call all this Iranian hatred... propaganda. All this for oil, unbelievable. War should be abolished, if a president starts one anywhere in the world he should be hung. NEW LAW. Starts 15 years ago...

Embry had this to say about the action in gold, “We are building a massive base and when there is any bad news for the system as a whole, gold gets clobbered.

They do not want it to be seen as a safe haven asset at this point. As soon as Draghi suggest that the ECB wasn’t going to buy the bonds gold got crushed and it got crushed way more than the Dow. That’s preposterous.

The US has 200 million acres of soybeans, corn and wheat planted (75, 75, and 50) approx. If 50,000 of the 150,000 MFG accounts were farmers, and each averages 1000 acres (about right), then 50 million acres are at risk (late planting, no planting at all, or reduced planting based on inability to hedge). Then there are ranchers, who are faced with enough problems (expensive feed, GMO silage causing reproductive problems, inability to hedge).

So, even with perfect weather, there could be a lot less food available next fall.

This is exactly what I am trying to explain to people now. The idea of getting out of debt or even really decreasing it for a sustained period of time is a fairy tale because the money itself is debt. Every dollar that exists was loaned into existence. The debt must be expanded to perpetuate the illusion of an expanding economy. It will either end in a deflationary collapse or an inflationary collapse. Undoubtedly TPTB will pick the inflationary collapse. We are very near the tipping point. There are cracks in the debt mountain everywhere and they are throwing just enough cash at it each time to prolong the inevitable.

I knew about this yesterday but what you haven't heard....yet, is that at one time the drone was to be equipped with a "fail-safe" destruct package which was later eliminated. The destruct package surrounded all secret technology with a powerful plastic explosive. It could have been detonated via remote control with a coded signal from a military satellite if need be. The critical components would have been vaporized eliminating any chance of reverse engineering. Now the Chinese and Russians as well as the North Koreans will catch up overnight. It will also make our own drones unusable since they can now be jammed or captured (electronically) and used to attack our own troops. This administration is starting to make The Three Stooges look like "60 Minutes".

Breaking.
SACRAMENTO – State Controller John Chiang today released his monthly report covering California's cash balance, receipts and disbursements in November, showing monthly revenues came in $497.7 million above projections in the state budget.

"While November's totals came in 9 percent above projections, they did not erase the fact that we are still running $1 billion behind in revenues and $2 billion ahead in expenditures," said Chiang. "Regardless of whether midyear cuts are enacted next week, the Legislature faces a tremendous fiscal challenge when it returns to session next month."

After accounting for November revenues, total year-to-date general fund revenues are now behind the budget's estimates by $1 billion, but expenditures for the year are over projections by $1.95 billion. The Controller's Office continues to work with the Department of Finance to identify and prepare for any impact on the State's cash outlook.

The State ended last fiscal year with a cash deficit of $8.2 billion. The combined current year cash deficit stands at $21.5 billion. Those deficits are being covered with $16.1 billion of internal borrowing (temporary loans from special funds) and $5.4 billion of external borrowing.https://sco.ca.gov/Files-EO/12-11summary.pdf

It matters not at this point whether you think the U.S. is bad and Iran is good...or vice versa. Argue semantics and politics all you want, shit is hitting the fan regardless. All that matters is that the drone was electronically "hijacked". This would seem to be another pretense for the war that now seems inevitable.

The ECB has reasonable funds available to it that, if used in the Euro bond market, would have some impact on containing rates.

Gold rises to $1762.50 , just below the $1764 angel. The new President of the European Central Bank says yes we have the money, but no we are not going to use it. Gold goes straight down into the first area of support at $1709- $1710 where it battles all afternoon.

Bloomberg releases an article saying that concerted central bank activity to control the price of gold was utilized today. Long scalpers barf out their positions based on the above jawboning MOPE. Gold ranges $100 so far today.

1. Now with a clear head, the ECB has the money and will be forced to use it or watch their best bond markets look like "Day After," and "Mad Max."

2. Central banks have been throwing blocks at the gold price ever since $248 without much success.

3. The Federal Reserve has made dollars available at cheap swap rates to the ECB. To think that is not a step in monetization because it will be used to buy non-dollar bonds is so glib that it communicated ignorance, not understanding. Systemic monetization has the same impact an insular monetization; it just uses other hands to do it.

Gold is headed in the $2000s. The low in the accordion chop has been established in the drop toward $1530. It does not matter if gold launches from $1710 or $1650, what matter is that it will.

If in fact this is what they are, the central banks are working together to find a way out of this mess. The fact is that the EU goes the US goes... Bad cop good cop....Today the Bad cop wast the ECB...they are going to be true to their word..but then there's the FED who's in bed with the ECB, so they take gold down so they are working with a lower base..then the FEDs will enter to help save the world and buy all the bonds....ECB saves face, the FEDs look like heros..gold is all banged up and no mother f'er (as G. Carlin Would say) will want to taste yellow pie...

"Gold rises to $1762.50 , just below the $1764 angel. The new President of the European Central Bank says yes we have the money, but no we are not going to use it. Gold goes straight down into the first area of support at $1709- $1710 where it battles all afternoon."

and

"Gold is headed in the $2000s. The low in the accordion chop has been established in the drop toward $1530. It does not matter if gold launches from $1710 or $1650, what matter is that it will."

He is absolutely correct. I'd like a Christmas gift of 1650 gold. Wish I had bought more this summer when it was battling for 1500s. I'm sure in due time I'll be moaning that I should have purchased more in the low 1700s. Such is life.

All we know is the Iranians appear to have a drone. How they got it and what it truly is

is another story. When dealing with masters in the art of deception NEVER assume the obvious or what APPEARS to be. If I employed such devices they would have self destruct mechanisms, this could be some type of Trojan Horse. There are far too many possibilities most having little or no bearing on the 100 oz I will score today as opposed to buying a july contract, plus the North Shore is 10-15 ft, Jaws may be breaking soon.

Two people have been killed on the grounds of Virginia Tech. A gunman apparently killed a police officer and one other person and then went on his way. The reporting is kind of scary because the propagandists are playing sad music in their clips, which might have seemed suitable if you were talking about Virginia Tech in 2007.

Where did the gunman come from and what were his motives? Maybe one of the CIA’s MK-Ultra subjects got loose. Or maybe he was allowed to escape….with a gun. Not that I am saying this is what happened, just a thought. After all today’s news media has to be considered speculative, as really all I see them do is speculate.Continue reading →

Question: Will gold break $2,000?

Bartiromo (She's yummy too:)

I’m not a market forecaster, but if I had to put my own money on the line, I would probably bet gold does break $2000. The fact is there’s so much economic and political uncertainty in the world that people want safe havens.

Cramer

Yes, gold will exceed $2000 because the European central bank will have to print euros to bail out so many countries and banks and that will raise the value of gold as a version of the world’s reserve currency. Gold will be a terrific performer once again. Mad Money’s been bullish on gold since we started and we remain bullish.

Kernen

Gold will not breach $2000.

Kudlow

Surprisingly, I don’t think so. I think gold has basically peaked and is now a bit overvalued. My prediction is that people will buy more stocks than gold. I’m optimistic about the stock market, so I would not be a gold buyer.

Najarian

As the printing press continues to print, the levels of Gold will pierce thru $2000, it may not sustain the levels, but the path appears to be higher as uncertainty continues to rise.

Member of the Canadian Parliamant for nine years, serving as Member of Parliament, Cabinet Minister (in charge of Revenue Canada), national leadership contender (Progressive Conservative Party of Canada), House of Commons Standing Committee member and chairman (Consumer and Corporate Affairs, Finance), Special Advisor to the Leader of the Official Opposition. Member of the Privy Council of Canada. Medals recipient.

LOOK WHAT THIS FOOL WRITES:

Every so often on this pathetic blog I screw up. Yes, I know this is difficult. Have a drink and sit down. We can hug and hum in a moment. Sometimes I make wild predictions (like gold would flame out or Kelowna real estate tank – which both happened), and then suffer through 800 comments from people who refuse to believe me (because they own bullion or a house on Pandosy Street). Or, worse, I recommend a financial asset, like preferred shares, corporate bonds or ETFs. Then the ankle-biters emerge to dis anything TNL@TB doesn’t tell them about.

The more I listen to Corzine's testimony, the more I can actually visualize him and others at MFing Global frantically running around their offices, crawling underneath conference tables, rummaging through janitor closets, yanking open desk drawers, emptying their briefcases, and even patting their pant pockets looking for their customers' money! "It's got to be around here somewhere... Damn! Where did we put that money?" It's clear that we can expect many other financial firms to go the way of MFing Global because the problem is systemic, rather than individual people or companies.

I know more Persians who are in the diaspora than ones who are currently living in Iran, but I have never met one who likes the Mullahs or supports them. I really hope that they can get rid of their oppressors without much loss of life.

Good round up of the total incompetence, corruption and destructive/suicidal dumb of politicians and Govt

Splitting hairs Egon von Greyerz lost a point (for me) and got a '9' pulling his punch on assuming after the catastrophe we return to "small Govt"

This is the same tragic mistake Ron Paul makes thinking the solution to Big Govt is simply a smaller Govt. Like size is anything to do with the fuking problem!!

The problem of Govt is systemic, not size. The problem with Govt is it's a MONOPOLY.

The systemic nature of the problem shows up no matter what size Govt is be it national, local state or town council.... nor wether it is a monopoly public, private or public-private quango. All Govt large or small, public or private produces the exact same specific problems: corruption, abject incompetence and ultimately (as we see today) anarchy

​Only the competition mechanism makes organisations produce maximum value to win end-users repeat custom. All monopolies sit on their fat arses and shove whatever they want down the throats of end-users. Because they can.

​Only competition allows the brightest, sharpest and most intelligent brains around to show through. Monopolies are dumb stupid morons because once again they do not have to compete, they just sit on their fat lazy dumb corrupt arses (no thinking required).

​When the political-banking mushroom cloud explodes, as it has so many times before in so many countries, the last thing we want to resurrect from the ashes of destructive Govt is another dumb fuking monopoly institution in the shape of a smaller Govt !

Govt has failed so many times (everytime) in history it is beyond (born) stupid. Humanity has the t-shirt on Govt and it's written large 'Govt: The Dumbest Most Corrupt Institution in History" right across it

Freedom works. Freedom and the free (competitive) market. Two mechanisms that constantly replenish themselves with the best and brightest of society, unlike Govt which forces the dumbest and scummiest of human toss pots on us for decades

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