I suggest the more that sign up the more likely the C of E is to sign up: it would be doubly embarrassing not to sign up. Not signing would be against the lead of the ABC but it could also be against the tendency of the former colonies (NZ excluded!!). In any case there are plenty of positive reasons for the C of E to sign up to the Covenant. If the C of E signs up I suggest others will pick up on this cue, alongside the cue of the trend of 7-1.

But what about those likely to not sign up? My recent "6-1" post highlighted the possibility that Australia would join ACANZP and TEC in not signing. ACCan is hard to predict - lots of reasons to think it will follow the lead of its sister church below the border, but it has so far shown itself to be somewhat canny in its bending with its discernment of the mind of the Communion. The 'hardcore' GAFCON churches might not sign, but even that is not, in my view, a foregone conclusion. Take Nigeria, for instance, with its CANA branch in North America, itself also part of ACNA: it cannot be unaware that CANA is part of giving ACNA Anglican 'legitimacy' as part of the Communion (albeit a 'legitimacy' not much recognised outside of the conservative end of the Communion spectrum). There is a logic here which leads to the conclusion that in the end Nigeria will sign to the Covenant in order to maintain its Anglican credentials. One might then apply similar logic to Rwanda, Kenya, and Uganda.

So, in my view, 35-3 is not inconceivable. Realistically this one and that one will surprise us (one way or another) and the final count could be 31-7 or 30-8. Or some other figure if there are abstentions.

Incidentally I said earlier this week that my view is that the Covenant needs 80% minimum support to be workable in the life of the Communion. That means a 31-7 vote or better (30-8 is 78.9% support for the Covenant).

And, I agree with those who say the vote of the C of E is decisive: a no from the C of E would make a nonsense of the Covenant as a Communion document.

8 comments:

A not unexpected move, Peter, on the part of the southern Cone - after withdrawing it's tactic of invading the north american Provinces - in order to be able to claim itsel;f to be 'Not Guilty' of the Windsor Moratorium that declared 'Border Crossing' to be one of the problems in the communion.

This cynical ploy ought to be seen for what it really is - the chance to avoid discipline for a breach of the 'Rules' while holing other (liberal Provinces) to be guilty of a similar breach. Very Tricky! And not too conducive to Unity in the Anglican Communion!

I must confess to being extremely surprised by this result! I'm glad you didn't take me up on my Mitt Romney $10K bet, Peter :)

Given the Southern Cone primate sits on the Primates Council of GAFCON, you would question if those two postions weren't contradictory. On one hand, they are supporting an alternative structure withiin the Anglican Communion which has published its own confessional basis for the future of the Communion. On the other, they are supporting a covenant which proposes a different confessional bais, combined with historical elements, as the basis for the Communion, and strengthens the role of the current Instruments of Communion. God bless them and I'm sure they thought and prayed hard about it, but I imagine it will come as a great surprise also to many of their GAFCON partners.

Just to extract a quote from GAFCON's Nairobi meeting in May:"We believe that the theological principles outlined in the Jerusalem Declaration offers the only way forward that holds true to our past and also gives a sure foundation for the future." If the other GAFCON primates believe their own statement, I can't see them adopting the covenant. They see themselves as authentically Anglican by virtue of their adherence to Anglican faith and practice, not by Covenant participation or even connection with Canterbury.

You're right, Peter, that the Covenant has certainly moved from being dead on arrival to having a fighting chance, especially if the CofE adopts it early next year.

One of my side interests is elections and electoral systems, so indulge me in a bit of number-crunching.

Even if all the "Maybe No" group voted for the Covenant and none of the "Maybe Yes" went the other way, the total would become 24-15, which still doesn't meet your 80% benchmark. The only way I can see it reaching that benchmark is if the CofE adopts the Covenant and this creates an irresistible momentum for adoption.

Hi AndrewOn the facts of membership of the Communion: this site, http://www.anglicancommunion.org/tour/index.cfm, lists 34 member churches plus 4 union churches, which is my 38; plus six further churches (extra-provincials etc, which would not seem to have a vote).

I think the difference between you and me on the counting is that (a) I am counting with the actual decisions as they come in; (b) in my predictions of definite 'noes' I am being a bit conservative, only assuming as 'noes' those who have already harrumphed and telegraphed their future decision (like my church); (c) I am allowing for the moving train effect of the 'ayes' giving pause for reconsideration for those who might have said 'no.'

But the thing is: I have always been of the view that I could be wrong, the Covenant will not succeed, etc. So you could be right.

Your number prediction is 24-15 (except it is about 38 members, so let's call that 24-14. If just seven of the fourteen vote 'yes' then my 31-7 (minimum required for workable Covenant) is reached. Among your likely 'noes' I see some who may yet surprise us ... and Southern Cone may be the pointer to take note of :)

I do love that term harrumph, Peter. And I'm glad you see it as applying to 'your' Church (and mine) in Aotearoa/New Zealand. My loyalty to ACANZP is undaunted - even if it is accompanied by an harrumph!

The clinging reach of border crossing priests who are ¨licensed¨ by the Anglican Province of the Southern Cone are legion...perhaps the PB of the Southern Cone, or even +Frank Lyons one of the greatest pirates of other peoples parishes might wish to comment on why Southern Cone licensed priests can´t ¨let go¨ of other peoples property? This shell game is absurd and worse, dishonesty at Church.

Hi, Leonardo, and welcome to this blog. I do need a bit of moral support from someone here. My prayer is that the C.of E. chucks out the Covenant process, which would be against the C.of E.'s own sovereignty as the Established Church in England. It already has enough to cope with -having A.M.i.E as an interloper.And if the C.of E. chucks it, the Covenant really is a 'Dead Duck'!

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Anglican Down Under

Welcome to this blog on Anglican, theological, biblical and other matters, mostly missional or liturgical (but I reserve the right to write about cricket). It is grounded in some islands at the bottom of the world which, together with a large island to our west, constitute fabulous Down Under.

Sometimes I pursue such a fine centrist line that I annoy people on either side of the line. If you do not like being annoyed then you know what to do.

I work for the Diocese of Christchurch and for Theology House, Christchurch. Views expressed here are not necessarily the views of either organisation. But I harbour the hope that what I say here is helpful to those with whom I am in fellowship because of these two entities!

ACANZP

ACANZP stands for Anglican Church in Aotearoa, New Zealand and Polynesia. In Aotearoa New Zealand this church is also known as Te Haahi Mihinare - The Missionary Church. (I work in ministry training and theological education in this church as Director of Education and Director of Theology House in the Diocese of Christchurch. Views expressed here are personal and not those of the Diocese, but the intent is not to express any personal views contradictory of the Diocese's).

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Followers

Pearls

Show us anything clearly set forth in Holy Scripture that we do not teach and we will teach it. Show us anything in our teaching or practice is clearly contrary to Holy Scripture, and we will abandon it.

Stephen Neill

For the glory of God is a human being fully alive, and the glory of humanity is the vision of God.

St Irenaeus

Fundamentally the Gospel is obsessed with the idea of the unity of human society.

Masure

We have returned to the Apostles and the old Catholic Fathers. We have planted no new religion, but only preserved the old that was undoubtedly founded and used by the Apostles of Christ and other holy Fathers of the Primitive Church.

Bishop Jewel

Preachers shall behave themselves modestly and soberly in every department of their life. But especially shall they see to it that they teach nothing in the way of a sermon, which they would have religiously held and believed by the people, save what is agreeable to the teaching of the Old or New Testament, and what the Catholic fathers and ancient bishops have collected from this selfsame doctrine.

Canon 6 from the 1571 Bishop’s Convocation

Kent: "See better, Lear, and let me still remain."

William Shakespeare

For the clarity that we are aiming at is indeed complete clarity. But this simply means that the philosophical problems should completely disappear. Wittgenstein

Justice is eternal, and doesn't depend at all on human conventions.

Montesquieu

The real challenge of Islam to Western intellectual discourse is for us to ask ourselves whether our unprecedented modern experiment of conducting political life with no transcendent values is really working out as well as we once hoped.

Harvey Cox

The long-term happiness of a society depends on how individuals behave towards each other, how families hold together, and how leaders keep the trust of people.

William Hague

Where orthodoxy is optional, orthodoxy will sooner or later be proscribed.

John Neuhaus

To be an evangelical is not, first and foremost, about doctrinal correctness, but about a passion for the gospel of salvation from sin through Christ for eternity.

John Richardson

Neither may we ... lightly esteem what hath been allowed as fit in the judgement of antiquity, and by the long continued practice of the whole church; from which unnecessarily to swerve, experience hath never as yet found it safe.

Richard Hooker (Lawes, V.7.1)

The function of the Christian canon was to separate the apostolic witness from the ongoing tradition of the church, whose truth was continually in need of being tested by the apostolic faith.

Brevard S. Childs

Every word of God proves true. (Proverbs 30:5)

If the people of this religion are asked about the proof for the soundness of their religion, they flare up, get angry and spill the blood of whoever confronts them with this question. They forbid rational speculation, and strive to kill their adversaries. This is why truth became thoroughly silenced and concealed.

Muhammad ibn Zakariyā Rāzī

Something to think about

Given that, like it or not, much Anglican Communion trouble at root is about dispute over what the church should teach about homosexuality, two papers here may be helpful. They represent, in my view, some of the best arguments for and against setting aside or obeying Scripture's teaching. If only the authors were Anglican ...

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For people for whom NZ English is not their native tongue here are some translations of regular Maori words used here or in linked articles: Aotearoa: name for New Zealand; aroha: love; Ariki: lord; Atua: God; hui: gathering, assembly, conference; hui amorangi: regional area under leadership of regional bishop within Te Pihopatanga o Aotearoa (Diocese of Aotearoa); kai: food; kai moana: sea food; Ihu: Jesus; iwi: tribe; Karaiti: Christ; Kotahitanga/Te Kotahitanga: within ACANZP, the council responsible for drawing together the hopes and aspirations of the three tikanga for theological education and ministry training and transforming them into policy and into recommendations to the St John's College Trust Board for expenditure of educational funds; also the Board of Governors of St John's College (the primary, but not the only object of SJCTB expenditure); koha: gift, responsive gift to hospitality offered; mana: power, respect, honour; marae: community meeting area, including meeting hall and dining room; mihi: speech; moana: sea, ocean; pihopa: bishop; pihopatanga: bishopric, diocese; powhiri: welcome ceremony; rangimarie: peace; tangata: people; tangi: funeral; taonga: treasure; tikanga: culture, cultural stream, within ACANZP: one of the three strands, Maori [Te Pihopatanga o Aotearoa], Pakeha [NZ Dioceses], or Pasefika (Diocese of Polynesia) which make up our whole church under the authority of General Synod while being self-governing for many aspects of church life in each of the tikanga; waiata: song; wairua: spirit; Wairua Tapu: Holy Spirit; waka: canoe; whanau: family, extended family.