United Nations World Food Programme (UNWFP) deputy executive director Ramiro Lopes da Silva announced
yesterday that his agency will assist eighty thousand people in South
Sudan's Jonglei state, who are victims of escalating ethnic conflict
between the Lou Nuer and the Murle. He also warned
that the conflict in the states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, in
Sudan, could lead to the flight of half a million people to South Sudan
if Khartoum continues to deny access to the area by humanitarian
agencies.

The two crises are separate. Conflict between the Lou Nuer and the
Murle predates the Sudanese civil war and the independence of South
Sudan. Over the years, as now, it involves cattle theft, kidnapping, and
revenge. There is evidence that neither group surrendered all of their
weapons to the Sudanese People's Liberation Army when South Sudan became
independent, as they were required to do. Though the fighting and
resulting internally displaced population appears to be confined to
South Sudan, the two peoples also live in adjacent countries, and there
must be concern that it could spread.

By contrast, the conflict in Blue Nile and South Kordofan is directly
related to Sudan's division last year into two states. The boundary
between Sudan and South Sudan is not fully demarcated and border
territories are disputed by various groups with links to Juba and
Khartoum. Establishing the frontier between the two states is one of the
serious, unresolved issues
left over from what was hardly a velvet divorce. Khartoum and Juba
accuse each other of supporting rebel groups and militias in Blue Nile
and South Kordofan. Khartoum continues to deny access by humanitarian
agencies to large areas ostensibly because it fears that food aid will
reach the pro-Juba rebels.

Large numbers of people need assistance. In addition to the eighty
thousand displaced because of Lou Nuer and Murle fighting, Lopes da
Silva said that during the past week, a thousand people crossed the
border into South Sudan. He observed that this number was comparable to
the rate of people fleeing Somalia into Kenya during last year's famine
in the Horn of Africa.

The international community should take Lopes da Silva's warnings as a
wake-up call and start to prepare for what could be a major
humanitarian operation that will likely require additional resources for
UNWFP and other humanitarian agencies.

This article originally appeared at CFR.org, an Atlantic partner site.