Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

The detached perch from which fans and media generally view pro sports makes it laughably easy to minimize the importance of surroundings and comfort for the athletes involved. These are professionals, we think; the barrier between us and the everyday lives of those we cover or root for seems to subconsciously suggest that larger-than-life personalities are somehow immune to normal human emotion. All that matters is the game in front of them. We don’t see any other part of their life, and often almost reflexively assume it’s the same way on their end during the times they’re on our radar.

In truth, NBA life is often a much less glamorous reality. Players are compensated quite handsomely, yes, but their fame and status tend to increase the stress on them rather than the other way around.

More importantly, the basketball-related demands can be an incredible burden when one stops to think about it — how many of us would perform 100 percent optimally every day at our jobs if we knew a single bad day or week could drastically impact our value to the company, and therefore our future earning power? How would we perform if we could be traded to a city halfway across the country on a whim? The biggest question in all but a few cases: How would we do being thrown straight out of college into what’s often a completely different role than we’d been accustomed to for nearly our entire lives, with all new surroundings and a whirlwind of expectations?

Trey Burke’s pre-NBA days, like so many guys in the league, were marked mostly by dominance. When he was five, his youth league literally had to change the rules because of him, as Trey told a reporter back in 2011 — he’d steal the ball every single time the opponent inbounded it, forcing a rule that prohibited him from crossing halfcourt when the opposition had possession. He won an AAU under-16 national title in 2009 with his father, Benji, coaching. He finished his varsity career at Northland High School in Columbus with a 97-5 record, Ohio’s Associated Press “Mr. Basketball” in his senior year.

Not a lot changed as he went to Michigan, where he’d eventually sweep the major college awards in a sophomore year that included a near-unanimous number one overall ranking for a stretch as well as a run to the national title game. All that earned him a top-10 selection in the NBA draft, and soon Trey was starting 68 of 70 games as an NBA rookie in a very similar role. He was second only to Gordon Hayward in per-game minutes and shot attempts, running the offense as he’d always done for a team that was bad but had good reasons to be.

The 2014 draft brought the first new wrinkle: Utah drafted another point guard. By midseason, Trey was coming off the bench for virtually the first time in his entire basketball life, this while a 19-year-old who’d never even played at college level got reps with the starters. He was asked to change his role, and there were struggles at times. Suddenly, much of the discourse surrounding Burke was abjectly negative, focused on his inefficient shooting and the defensive limitations presented by his stature. The articles piled up, including in this space.

Heading into his third summer since being drafted into the league, Burke knew the same approach wouldn’t be enough. He changed his habits off the court, including slimming down by about 10 pounds over the summer. He made some big alterations on the hardcourt as well, varying up his offseason regimen — the goal was to “work not only harder, but work smarter,” to use Trey’s words. In one particularly vital area, it was more about changing the mindset of his work than any physical element.

“Obviously the first two years [in the NBA], I had some games where I’d shoot the lights out, and I had some down games where I’m not shooting well at all,” Burke said. Shooting drills needed to become more than just a number to check off a list. “My approach [this summer] was to try to be consistent while I was shooting rather than just getting a bunch of reps up, or just making a bunch of shots. But making shots in bunches, and consistency, was big for me.”

It’s shown through immediately this year, and the samples are quickly approaching the size where one can assume real change has been affected. Trey hasn’t cut his per-minute shot volume at all, but his efficiency from virtually everywhere has improved — particularly at the rim and from beyond the arc, the two most important areas for a frequent shooter in the modern game. His form, always excellent to begin with, has finally begun to yield the sort of accuracy many expected as his focus has matched it.

And as the most important part of his game has stabilized, the trickle down to other areas is beginning to show through.

“The way that we’re playing right now is a little different than the way that Trey played when he was at Michigan, or even [my] first year here when the ball was in his hands pretty much all the time,” said coach Quin Snyder. “He’s more integrated into the group right now.”

Burke’s passing has been grounded in so much more comfort, even if most metrics are struggling to capture it with an altered team makeup and his own change in role. He’s made huge strides as a pick-and-roll operator, where his overall derived efficiency (including passes to teammates for shots) has jumped from the 38th percentile league-wide to the 80th, per Synergy Sports. Burke just didn’t have these sorts of passes in his bag out of the two-man game last year:

That’s a low-percentage floater nine times out of 10 in Trey’s first two years. He’s a level deeper now.

“It’s really about playing off how the defense is playing [in pick-and-roll],” Burke said. “If teams are going under, coach is always telling me to be aggressive, make them pay for it… When teams are going over, trying to get in the paint, probe it, and just seeing how that weak side defender is playing. Pick-and-roll is all about reads for me. Watching film over the summer, watching film during the season — it’s all slowing down for me.”

Burke leads the Jazz in potential assists, per SportVU, generating over nine of them for every 36 minutes he’s on the floor — and remember that a sizable portion of these minutes come alongside at least a couple members of what’s been a disappointing Jazz bench. He’s still taking his share of early and midrange shots (often both at once), but these have been both more accurate and less at the expense of open teammates.

Trey has also shown flashes of some real strides defensively, though judging this is tougher this early, be it numerically or visually. He’ll still have moments guarding pick-and-roll where his effort or concentration wanes, something he knows, and more consistency here will be his next step — he’s shown he can do it when he’s locked in. Communication has often been a key here, and it’s coming along. His work against other actions and especially the occasional isolation has been much improved even to the naked eye.

It’s common to hear about the third year being a turning point of sorts for many young NBA players, point guards in particular. Is that what’s happening here?

“I don’t think I’ve made that turn all the way yet, but I think I’m so much more adjusted to the NBA game,” Burke said. “Preparation has helped me out a lot. I think I’m almost to the point where I’ve made that turn to where, okay, I know I can get a shot here or I know I can attack here, find a way to get into the paint, get easier opportunities for my teammates and for myself.”

Finally, Trey is back to his comfort zone after leaving it for the first time in so long. He’s bought in completely to his new role, and more than that has embraced it: “Coming off the bench has been different, because I’ve got to see the game from a different perspective,” he said. He knows this could be the niche he occupies moving forward with this team as Dante Exum returns to the fold, and is well past looking at it as a demotion of any kind.

“We’re all for the team,” he said. “We’re all about winning, and that’s what I’m about as well. Everything else will fall in place.”

Author information

Ben Dowsett

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

Lucas Falk is a basketball junkie from Salt Lake City. Lucas is an alumnus of both Olympus High School and the University of Utah, where he earned a degree in Economics. Lucas is also a proponent of doing a reboot to the film "White Men Can't Jump." He can be found on Twitter @Lucaswfalk.

When the Utah Jazz drafted Trey Burke back in 2013 there was a lot of hype surrounding the point guard. Burke had just led the Michigan Wolverines to the NCAA National Championship game and was named the College Player of the Year. The future was bright and hopes were high for Jazz fans and their new point guard.

Then reality set in, and Burke’s first two seasons in the league proved to be more of a challenge than anticipated. But early in this, his third season, Burke seems to be putting the pieces together. Small sample size aside, Burke is shooting and scoring, knocking down 46.9 percent from the floor and an even 50 percent from deep. Burke has averaged 13 points in 23 minutes, compared to 12.8 points in 30.1 minutes last season. What’s been the key to Burke’s success? It’s really quite simple: confidence.

It’s been said that confidence is key. While that may or may not be true in all aspects of life, it couldn’t be more true for athletes, and Trey Burke in particular. Part of that confidence stems from internal growth. The point guard position has the steepest learning curve of all positions. The first year is often spent trying to apply the style of play they’ve played their entire life, finding out what works and what doesn’t work in the NBA. The second year is spent trying to improve upon what didn’t work the previous season. Finally, in the third year, the only point of emphasis is doing what they do well. In his third season as a pro, Trey Burke is finding confidence in his growth as a player and comfort in playing within the confines of his own abilities.

The second source of Burke’s confidence is being able to play a large portion of his minutes against second unit players. While not quite a starter, Burke has the potential to be a threat off the bench. Burke should feel confident he can score against most backup point guards, which should only add to his ever-growing confidence. Once again, there is a certain level of comfort knowing his role shouldn’t change. Despite Raul Neto getting the nod to start, once Dante Exum returns from injury (most likely next season), Neto will go from starter to third string. Burke will continue to be asked to play his game in a similar capacity for seasons to come. That continuity and understanding of his role will strengthen Burke’s confidence.

The third source of Burke’s confidence comes from Quin Snyder. By now, every Jazz player should understand Snyder is dedicated to their development. Snyder was brought in by the front office in part because he had a track record of improving the players he has coached. If anyone can help Burke reach his potential, it’s Snyder. Burke trusts his head coach and Snyder has begun to trust Burke. That kind of relationship will add fuel to the fire of Burke’s confidence.

It’s taken a few years for Try Burke to start to live up to some of the hype that surrounded him in college, but I’m confident Burke’s best basketball is still ahead of him.

Author information

Lucas Falk is a basketball junkie from Salt Lake City. Lucas is an alumnus of both Olympus High School and the University of Utah, where he earned a degree in Economics. Lucas is also a proponent of doing a reboot to the film "White Men Can't Jump." He can be found on Twitter @Lucaswfalk.

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

It would be tempting to call Saturday night’s explosion from the three-point line a breakout game for Trey Burke, but really, this was just part of what’s been a pretty excellent start for Utah’s oft-maligned third-year point guard.

“He’s been great for us,” said Gordon Hayward of Burke. “He’s been embracing the role that he’s been put in. We need somebody to come off the bench like that and give us a lift.”

Along with near-namesake Alec Burks, Trey has done just that — and Saturday’s barrage from deep was just a more noticeable continuation. He’s now shooting an even 50 percent from 3 on the year after his 6-8 showing against the Grizzlies, along with nearly 47 percent from the field and a perfect mark from the charity stripe. But as his coach explains, it’s about more than just the metrics for Burke.

“[Trey’s effect] shows up readily when you look at his shooting numbers,” said Quin Snyder following the win. “But there’s a part of it that you don’t see, whether it’s in a timeout or at the free-throw line when he’s communicating with a teammate. I just think he’s really focused on trying to do every little thing that he can do to help the team win and be a good player.”

It has to feel rewarding on nights like these when it all comes together. But the work around the margins is what makes it all possible — Trey and his teammates have spoken since the beginning of preseason about his renewed approach to the game, and feeling more comfortable in his own skin is clearly trickling down to the rest of his game. The move to the bench doesn’t appear to have slowed him down in the slightest, and may have in fact energized him.

“I just do whatever the team asks me to do, whatever coach asks me to do,” Burke told a large group of assembled media after the game. “He told me he wanted me to come off the bench and be aggressive, make plays for the team. For me it’s all about winning.”

The onus remains on Trey to prove this surge is more than temporary, but he seems more up to the task than in previous years. His words regarding preparation are far from empty — he’s been among the last to leave the practice facility on nearly every occasion this writer has been there to observe a practice or shootaround. His warmups before games, while a trivial matter to some, are a process he takes seriously and works hard at. The hope for Jazz fans will be that Trey embraces the success he’s having with his new approach, and becomes the player the Jazz hoped for when they drafted him back in 2013.

Numbers of Note

29.5 — Positive per-100-possession rating for the Jazz during the nearly 25 minutes Alec Burks spent on the court Saturday night. More on this below.

90.3 — Jazz defensive rating, once again tops in the league. It should be noted, though, that the only above-average offense (to this point) they’ve played so far is Portland, a game they lost and were out of sorts defensively.

Musings

Hayward takes another positive step: Burke’s great night from the field overshadowed it, but Gordon Hayward had his second consecutive strong game after seeming a bit off to begin the year. His first half, in particular, was excellent — 15 points on 5-6 shooting, five rebounds, four assists and a block without a single turnover. Burke spoke on how important it is, and will be, for the Jazz to have their leader in full form.

“It means the world,” Trey said. “First couple games he didn’t shoot it as well as we know he can shoot, [but] he’s picked it up the last few games — we’re going to need that from him all year. His aggression on the offensive end, his leadership, we’re going to need that.”

Alec Burks, plus-minus All-Star? Of all Jazz players who have played in each of the team’s six games, who do you think has the highest on-court plus-minus? That’s right, it’s Mr. Burks. He showed why to a large degree Saturday — not quite at his usual level offensively, Burks nonetheless contributed elsewhere on the floor, especially defensively. His off-ball play was as good as it’s been all year, with several perfect shows and bits of help defense that will go unnoticed to the casual fan. He added another four assists after eight Thursday in Denver, and finished with a team-best plus-12 despite a pedestrian 9-4-3 line on 2-6 shooting.

Late-game complacency: The Jazz built up to a 20-point lead in the third quarter against Memphis, but what happened over a large stretch of the fourth following that was a bit of a warning for the group going forward. They allowed the Grizzlies to storm back to within five through a mixture of sloppy play and strong shot-making from Memphis, and while Snyder didn’t attribute it to his group letting down necessarily, he talked about their response to those sorts of situations.

“I don’t think we let up, just the level of the game and the physicality raised and we got sloppy,” said Snyder. “You get behind and you get urgent [like Memphis did], and there’s a physical level that kicks in. We just have to be stronger and take care of the ball, something we’ve been doing well.”

Neto, starter in name only: Raul Neto started each half for the Jazz Saturday night, but wouldn’t see the court again in either frame once he left it. While Neto is technically the starter, it’s becoming clear over the last few games that his role is in fact slightly less than that. Snyder is going to Burke for longer and longer periods, and has been very comfortable pulling out his three-wing lineup. The team continues to be pleased with Neto defensively and as a ball-handler, but it’s becoming clear that there are many situations where better options exist. This isn’t a bad thing — in the same way Burke is learning to embrace his new role, Neto is already clearly settling into a comfort zone.

Joe Ingles, spacing extraordinaire: Ingles was hot to close last year from deep, and has kept it up and then some to open the 15-16 season. He’s up to 46.7 percent on the year, and the Jazz’s True Shooting percentage rises over six full points when he steps on the court. There are games where he plays limited minutes, but it’s the way he fits himself in — shooting and otherwise — that allows him to be a vital plug-and-play option.

“Joe’s been good as far as figuring out different ways to impact the game — whether it’s shooting, being able to switch defensively, there’s a lot of things he can do,” Snyder said. “That’s what versatility is, really: trying to find different things you can do to help the team win.”

Author information

Ben Dowsett

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

Lucas Falk is a basketball junkie from Salt Lake City. Lucas is an alumnus of both Olympus High School and the University of Utah, where he earned a degree in Economics. Lucas is also a proponent of doing a reboot to the film "White Men Can't Jump." He can be found on Twitter @Lucaswfalk.

Recently, the Utah Jazz waived point guard Bryce Cotton, leaving Trey Burke and Raul Neto as the only healthy floor generals on the roster. So who should start for the Jazz when the regular season tips off? Let’s look at the options.

No Point Guard (aka The Triple Wing)

It’s possible that when the regular season tips off, there will be no starting point guard for the Utah Jazz. Quin Snyder has deployed a few different lineups with three wing players and two big men during the preseason. With players like Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood and Alec Burks who can initiate the offense, there might not be a need for a true point guard on the court. It’s not as if the concept is new. In fact, for parts of last year Hayward would run the offense while Dante Exum would find a nice spot in the corner and wait to go back on defense.

Snyder has mixed and matched all of the wing players in some variation of the “triple wing” offense. My personal favorite would be Hayward, Hood and Elijah Millsap. The Jazz certainly won’t get a lot of offensive production from Millsap, but his defense is excellent. Instead of having Hayward or Hood expend energy guarding the opposing team’s best wing player, Millsap can answer the call and play lockdown defense. Playing Millsap with the starters also means that Burks could provide a scoring punch off the bench, masking some of his defensive issues while he plays against other teams’ second units.

Trey Burke

Following the final game of the preseason, Quin Snyder said, “The one thing that’s clear is that Trey Burke is playing great.” And Snyder is certainly right, as usual. While it is only preseason, Burke has been shooting extremely well, connecting on 43.5 percent from three and 50 percent overall.

For most point guards, it takes two or three seasons to truly understand the NBA game and figure out what works and what doesn’t work for them. As Burke enters his third year in the league, the pieces are starting to come together and Jazz fans should see a noticeable improvement in Burke’s game. In the play below, you’ll see Burke run a nice pick-and-roll with Rudy Gobert.

As Burke comes off the screen, he uses his body to shield off the defender to create space and knock down a floater. If he is able to knock down that floater consistently, defenders in the paint will have to step up, which should allow for easy lob passes to the rolling Jazz big man.

In the next play you’ll see Burke finishing in transition.

Once again, Burke uses his body to not only shield off the defender, but also to create contact for the bucket and the foul. Burke is coming to terms with himself about what he can and cannot do on the basketball court, making him a much more efficient scorer and making his case for why he should start for the Jazz.

Raul Neto

Preseason is not the time to fall in love with a player. Why? Because it’s preseason. But I must confess, Raul Neto has impressed me with how he’s performed. He does so many little things that can help the team win, it’s easy to see him in the starting lineup.

Neto’s pesky defense was highlighted after the first couple of preseason games; pressuring the ball handler the full length of the court, forcing turnovers, creating chaos. It was a tremendous sight. But it’s his offense that has me intrigued.

Neto still has a long way to go with his shooting, but it has been better that was initially advertised. Take a look at the following play.

When Neto has a chance to set his feet, he can actually knock down shots. Off the bounce, Neto’s jumpshot is a terrible. But if he can square up and set his feet, he can make enough shots to keep defenders from sagging off completely.

With Neto, the Jazz find themselves in a similar situation as last year with Exum: A point guard who excels on defense, but may not be the best on the other end of the floor. However, Neto has shown to be much more aggressive than Exum was early on. Take the following play for example.

Despite missing the shot, Neto attacked the basket and made a strong play. In the same situation, Exum would have probably continued his dribble along the baseline and not looked for his own shot. Neto isn’t looking for his shot all of the time, but he does do enough on offense that defenses can’t simply ignore him.

So which, if any, of the point guards on the roster should be the starter? In my opinion, I think Raul Neto should be the starting point guard for the Utah Jazz. Yes, Trey Burke has more experience and better skills on offense, but that’s what the second unit needs. They need someone who can score when Hayward goes to the bench. Burke, alongside Burks, can help Utah maintain the offense when the starters need a break. Neto’s defense and his facilitating nature are more suitable next to the likes of Hayward and Favors. Don’t be surprised if the Brazilian ball handler is the Jazz’s floor general to start the season.

Author information

Lucas Falk is a basketball junkie from Salt Lake City. Lucas is an alumnus of both Olympus High School and the University of Utah, where he earned a degree in Economics. Lucas is also a proponent of doing a reboot to the film "White Men Can't Jump." He can be found on Twitter @Lucaswfalk.

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

The cascading effects of Dante Exum’s heartbreaking ACL tear announced last week have already come under the microscope in an otherwise dull August. Rumors have flown about trade targets. Some of the bigger names in national media have weighed in, and perhaps talked a few incoherent Jazz fans down from a ledge. We at SCH have had immediate reactions and analysis, an Exum-centric radio broadcast, and a more detailed breakdown of the Jazz’s options for filling the 48 or more minutes a night they’ll need from the point guard position.

Perhaps most singularly affected by the news is the guy Exum’s performance threatened to marginalize in the first place. Trey Burke has, in an admittedly obtuse sense, been given a stay of execution of sorts. His time with the Jazz was far from over, but entering the year as the clear-cut backup, potentially forced to compete with one or two other guys even for that role, is a far cry from his circumstance now. Barring unexpected woes from Exum, it was becoming tough to ever imagine Burke in more than a secondary role with this team.

Maybe that hasn’t changed; Exum’s injury doesn’t suddenly eliminate Burke’s flaws. An assuredly larger burden might simply confirm much of the general sentiment around the league regarding Trey’s game more quickly, absent the quirks of context and circumstance that can surround lower-volume guys. But the variance at the other end of the spectrum would appear to be wider – one last chance for big minutes alongside the rest of the franchise’s core.

The question marks begin on the defensive end, presumably the largest drop-off point between Exum’s game and Burke’s. As others have posited, the gap here has maybe been somewhat exaggerated – Burke made real strides defensively last year along with several other Jazzmen, and it’s possible Exum’s own effect on the defense was slightly overstated, if still impressive given his age and expectations.

Trey’s work defending pick-and-roll sets offers a few good examples of his improvements. His development as last season wore on was less about skills and more about proper utilization; Burke will almost always be at a physical disadvantage unless his body undergoes some radical changes, but he grew more comfortable leveraging certain elements to his advantage.

One thing he dramatically improved on was his recognition and navigation of screens, which went from utterly disastrous to far closer to average by the end of last year. Per Synergy Sports, Trey ran directly into a pick on just over 35 percent of his defended P&R sets for the 2013-14 season – that number dropped to under 25 percent last year. He and the coaching staff clearly worked on his recognition and reaction to screens coming earlier, going to lengths to improve his footwork and positioning. They went so far as to often have him “ice” ball-handlers even on high-P&R actions where forcing to the sidelines wasn’t the primary goal, just to improve his timing and familiarity:

It’s a foregone conclusion Burke will struggle with faster guys in two-man action; effectively forcing them one way, even if they still have half the court to work with, minimizes the extent of the damage on those occasions where he’s blown by while allowing his big partner more opportunity to back him up. They’ll live with the sort of on-the-move mid-range jumpers from the clip above. It may feel like training wheels to a point, but this sort of handicap is often a necessity for guys with physical shortcomings around the league, and it clearly helped in one of Trey’s iffiest areas last year.

It’s far from a finished product. His effort is often still lacking, particularly his urgency recovering back to ball-handlers after dodging a seven-footer. He seems only mildly interested in re-connecting with Dion Waiters following a mostly innocent pick from Steven Adams, and while Waiters’ typical plodding allows Trey to get up a token contest, better guys are less forgiving.

Trey and other Jazz perimeter guys have a lot of cushion when playing alongside Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, but this can’t become too much of a crutch. Smart offensive groups can rip off these Band-Aids with the right tweaks regardless of personnel.

In an overall sense, though, Burke has made real strides on this end. His defensive efficiency figures post-All Star break last year showcase as much, particularly the way his lineups were just as stingy without Rudy Gobert on the floor (94.3 points per-100 allowed) as they were with the big Frenchman (94.4 per-100) during this time. Trey’s coming from such a deficit that much more will be necessary, especially as elite guards target him upon his expected return to the starting lineup, but he’s at least gotten the ball rolling slowly in the right direction.

Burke was probably more damaging on the other end of the floor last year. At least there are inherent limits to a player’s effect defensively, with just a singular opponent to guard and some level of control over who that opponent is; Utah’s offense may have been sabotaged on an even higher scale by Burke’s insistence upon shooting tons of shots he just couldn’t make regularly enough.

Simply put, shot selection seems likely to largely define Trey’s future in Utah and the NBA. He may never be a knockdown guy from any spot on the floor – even some of his more encouraging areas, such as catch-and-shoot scenarios, fall well short of league average – but he absolutely must eliminate some of the terrible shots from his repertoire to at least become a guy who isn’t actively damaging the offense. Teams are begging him to round the corner on pick-and-rolls, find a couple feet of space, and launch away:

This might as well be a written invitation. Look how far Kenneth Faried is sagged away, and how attached Wilson Chandler (closest help defender, bottom of the screen) remains to Gordon Hayward on the perimeter even as Burke is about to leave his feet for an open look:

Burke Jumper

Burke shot 194 pullup jumpers following a pick-and-roll action last season, per Synergy, 11th-most in the entire NBA despite backup status for half the year – of 53 guys who attempted at least 100 such shots, his effective field-goal percentage was 50th. This is a toxic combination.

The trickle-down reaches several other important elements of his game. He has no means of throwing big men off balance around screens; they’re fist-pumping every time he pulls up, and will happily sit on their heels and force him to play on their terms near the basket. It’s a big reason he’s been one of the league’s most inefficient guards finishing at the rim, and also one of the least capable at drawing fouls down low.

Worse yet, it severely limits Burke’s ability to create for others. Pick-and-roll play is again a useful barometer here: the degree to which Trey’s efficiency as a setup man for spot-up shooters trailed behind other Jazz ball-handlers was startling. Jazz jump-shooters had an eFG of 52.1% following P&R-induced passes from Rodney Hood; 49.3% from Gordon Hayward; 50.0% from Alec Burks; and 64.4% (!!!!!) from Exum – from Burke, it cratered to 46.9%. Why would teams leave better shooters to contest inefficient looks?

A few other numbers indicate that Trey’s move to the bench in mid-January did very little to change his role as a distributor. Per exclusive data provided to SCH by Nylon Calculus’ Darryl Blackport, Burke averaged 9.7 assist opportunities (via SportVU figures) per game as a starter, a number that dropped to 7.3 per game following his move to the bench. Meanwhile, Trey’s teammates converted 51.6 percent of his assist chances pre-switch and 47.8 percent post-switch. On one hand, this seems explainable: Burke had better average teammates as a starter, and it should be expected for them to convert a higher percentage and make more opportunities available for themselves. But while Burke’s per-36-minute assist chances actually only dropped by about 1.0, it’s fair to wonder why, against lesser competition and with his own shooting percentage actually dropping post-switch, Trey wasn’t capable of involving his teammates more often.

Put it all together, and without some real changes there’s a chance this just won’t work with Utah’s core unit. The Jazz will never reach the true contender status they covet with such an inefficient guy sapping so many possessions, particularly when doing so hampers his ability to make his teammates better.

Selection, selection, selection. So much of the above could be softened or even eliminated completely with a true commitment from Trey to changing his thought process. He still has useful NBA skills, ones that could make him valuable while on the floor rather than a detriment in short order if he could learn to fit in more effectively as a supplemental piece. Proving that he can co-exist with guys like Hayward, Burks and Hood won’t bump Exum out of his slot next year, but it’ll go a long way to keeping Trey in Utah.

Once again, it’s possible this accelerated grading curve has the opposite effect. Burke is climbing a huge hill, and it’s easy to fathom him making many of the changes outlined here and still being held too far back by his physical deficiencies. Reports of Utah’s interest in adding another piece to their point guard platoon appear to indicate they’re buying insurance on that possibility even this season, though such a move wouldn’t automatically be a condemnation. If Burke is unable to distinguish himself from a Garrett Temple-type addition, or even Raul Neto and Bryce Cotton, the writing could be on the wall as far as his career as an NBA starter.

This is it for Trey Burke. A teammate injury is never desirable, but the silver lining in this case is one last chance for him to prove us all wrong.

Author information

Ben Dowsett

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.

Any discussion of Dante Exum’s knee injury has to start here: what a disappointing turn for Dante himself. The 20-year-old was excited to keep building on his early successes, and 2015-16 was supposed to be an important developmental year for him. He’s at a point where he definitely needs to expand his comfort zone and test his limits, and it’s a rough personal blow for him that he can’t do that for the next several months.

At the same time, it’s a blow for the Utah Jazz, who have to be thinking now about how they staff the PG for 48 minutes and, in particular, who starts.

The Jazz are in this situation partially of their own doing. Everybody knew going into this offseason that a point rotation of Exum, Trey Burke and Raul Neto was a shaky one in terms of proven ability. There appeared to be available avenues for upgrading the depth at that position in June or July, but the Jazz chose to bet on the improvement of their guys in the program. It’s not a bad philosophy, but the Exum injury highlights the cost of passing on some of those opportunities.

But alas, they are where they are now. And that means trying to figure out who their starting point guard will be when the team kicks off its fall camp in under two months.

The In-House Options

Let’s be honest: the single most likely outcome of this exercise is that Burke is the Jazz’s starting PG, at least in the immediate term. Even if the Jazz opt to bring in outside help, chances of acquiring starting-caliber reinforcements at this stage are slim. So it’s safe to bet that the simplest answer may be defaulting back to the guy who was starting for Utah until last January.

On a lot of levels, it would be fantastic if Burke seized the moment, improved his play and won back the support of Utah fans. Just 24 months ago, Burke was considered a core piece of Utah’s future and a boon for Lindsey, who had wheeled and dealt his way to Trey in the 2013 draft.

And really, Burke wouldn’t need to totally transform his game to be a nice help to the Jazz starters. It would be more about role acceptance and sustaining some defensive improvements. Simply put, he can’t keep using 25% of the team’s possessions when his True Shooting is 45.5%. As a Michigan sophomore, Burke sported a TS of .569 and still managed to assist 37% of his teammates’ buckets, and for his trouble he came away the Naismith Award winner, AP Player of the Year and an NBA lottery pick. If that Burke is hiding somewhere, now would be the perfect time for him to appear.

The basketball ramifications of Burke sliding back into the starting spot are plentiful enough to be a separate topic, and SCH will continue to explore that. For now, suffice it to say he’s probably the incumbent choice at the moment. Unless something major changes between now and October 4, Burke is probably penciled in as a starter off the bat.

That doesn’t mean I’m not interested in — or a believer of — Neto. I have no idea if Neto will fulfill Amin Elhassan’s prediction and grab the job at some point, but I do think he’ll help the Jazz more than some are counting on. Neto is an honest-to-goodness point guard with excellent court vision and a dash of creativity and flair as well. He’s got good-but-not-great size at 6’2″, but he’s got a legit NBA build and has been starting and playing big minutes in a tough league that is notorious for parking younger players. Also, he’s a better shooter than last year’s flukey percentages indicate, and he’s very comfortable in various pick-and-roll scenarios.

Bryce Cotton probably has very slim chances of ever sniffing the starting lineup, but let’s talk Cotton for a minute. Though it seems contrary to say, the Exum mishap might have complicated Cotton’s chances of making the roster. The Jazz may feel like they need to add some outside help now, and if they do, they’re certainly not going to dedicate five roster spots to point guards.

The downside, of course, is that the Jazz have no way of maintaining Cotton’s rights if they cut him. He could be called up — or even claimed off waivers — by any NBA team. But let’s also not overstate what kind of a tragedy that would be. Cotton has had a nice summer, and before that he had a handful of impressive outings at the tail end of last season. But he’s still a borderline rotation player in even the most optimistic scenarios. His gumption and grit are remarkable, but he has an uphill battle, especially if the Jazz add a point guard from outside.

Free Agent Options

We can make pretty quick work of this section, because the crop is rather picked over. Here is literally every remaining free agent PG who ended last season on a roster, sorted by 2014-15 Win Shares.

Jason Terry – Apparently he’s not a done deal in Houston, which would only make him an interesting name for the Jazz if he weren’t, you know, 37.

Kendall Marshall – Intriguing, though also coming off his own ACL injury. He’s a big, smart point guard whose weakness in college was shooting but who has really developed his shot since turning pro. Would also probably be a cheap get.

John Lucas III – Safe to say this probably isn’t happening.

AJ Price – Reportedly mulling overseas options.

Lester Hudson – We’re now getting into territory where it’s unclear if these guys are even better options than a Burke/Neto/Cotton lineup.

Ish Smith – We’re into negative WS now. Negative.

Will Bynum – A shooting guard in a PG’s body, except that he’s not a good shooter, either.

Gal Mekel – Yes, I am on record as a Mekel fan, but in two full NBA seasons he earned all of 335 minutes.

Darius Morris – Waived this offseason by Brooklyn.

There are some vaguely interesting names there, but probably none that would be able to reasonably contend for a starting job. So the answer to the starter question probably isn’t here.

Trade Options

Here’s what I’m absolutely positive the Jazz won’t do: overreact to the Exum news by making a panic trade. They won’t depart from the principles they’ve established, so if they make a trade in the next few weeks, it’s going to be the type of deal that they would have fit the plan pre-injury, too. So if a marquee acquisition that soaks up assets was not in the cards in June, don’t expect it now

Fan chatter keeps coming around to guys like George Hill and Darren Collison. Each would absolutely be the presumed starter the moment he landed in Utah, but that’s also a statement of what would be required to land either of them.

Collison is definitely slotted behind Rajon Rondo on the Kings’ guardline, but Rondo isn’t exactly a long-term bet for Sacto, so Collison is both their backup and their insurance policy. Aside from that, Rondo-Collison is a markedly better point guard rotation than Rondo-Burke, so why would Sacramento agree to that without getting appropriately rewarded? They wouldn’t, which is why this probably costs more than the Jazz are willing to pay in response to an emergent need. If they could do it just by attaching seconds or even a late first to Burke, that’d be a nice get for Utah. I just don’t see Sacramento biting.

Hill is an even bigger pipe dream. All of Indy’s quality smalls aside from Hill are really combo guards, so they can’t really deal Hill without getting a starting-quality point guard back.

All of this is why Garrett Temple is a more reasonable option, though I don’t think Temple would arrive as a favorite to start. Temple is a 3&D point guard who so far hasn’t played enough to really excel at the 3 part or the D part. But the potential is there, and fellow Spurs alumni Quin Snyder and Dennis Lindsey should know enough about Temple’s developmental mindset to bet on him improving.

The other nice thing about Temple: he wouldn’t cost much. He’s currently about the 7th PG/SG on Washington’s depth chart and the Wiz may simply be OK with not paying $1.1M to somebody buried that deep in the rotation. Technically the Jazz are required to give something up in a trade, but they could send back something that simply checks the box: a non-guaranteed player they would likely waive anyway, minimum cash, or a top-55 protected pick designed never to be conveyed. At most, the Wiz could might ask for an actual second rounder, but even that’s not unreasonable given how many of those the Jazz have cached.

Mario Chalmers is another player who has come up as a salary dump candidate that could fill the need in Utah, though I question the basketball fit. I suppose the Jazz could do worse than a guy who’s played a lot of winning basketball in a winning program. And you could bring him off the bench as a designated corner shooter (42% career) while Rodney Hood or Joe Ingles handled more of the facilitation duties.

A quick scan of NBA depth charts reveals some other teams who may have point guards to spare. Certainly none of these deals would yield starters, so this list is more about adding rotation-quality depth to the position:

Dallas is, as usual, swimming in point guards. The problem is, the quality ones can’t be traded until December 15. Only Devin Harris and Raymond Felton are currently available. John Jenkins is someone who interests me and who crossed paths with Snyder in Atlanta, but as a recent signee can’t be dealt.

With an All-Star point guard and an up-and-comer in Dennis Schröder in front of him, Atlanta’s Shelvin Mack might be expendable. He was a Butler bestie of Jazz star Gordon Hayward, though he has so far only had one year where he cracked a regular rotation.

Brian Roberts just got relegated back to third string in Charlotte, but he’s a rotation-quality point guard.

Orlando probably can’t find minutes for all of Payton/Watson/Napier, especially since some of Victor Oladipo’s minutes have historically also spilled over into the point. Watson can’t be traded, though, and they’re not dealing Payton.

Many have pointed out that the Jazz have the space to absorb Jose Calderon outright, which is true. But the dude will be 34 next month and just missed half a season. That’s an ominous combo. Also, the Knicks are already laughably thin at the point.

The Bucks have also created a point guard logjam by trading for Greivis Vasquez despite having MCW, Tyler Ennis and Jorge Gutierrez. Ennis and Gutierrez are the most likely to be available.

Some fans have zeroed in on Detroit’s backup, Brandon Jennings. He doesn’t have the shooting the Jazz have made a priority, but has become a better facilitator than most people think.

Dozens of names later, we still don’t know precisely which points will be starting for the Jazz, or even playing for them.

We know who’s not, and that’s going to continue to be really rough news for Exum, the Jazz and their fans.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.

These two Jazz leaders and many of their teammates arrived in Utah as the result of trades. (ESPN/Getty Images)

Without looking, take a wild guess at how many of the 18 Jazz players who have contracts for 2015-16 were acquired using Utah’s own picks.

Go ahead, guess. I’ll wait…

For a program that has ostensibly been built through the draft, you’d think the number is pretty high, right?

Not so. Only Alec Burks, Dante Exum and Trey Lyles were selected at the team’s assigned draft positions. Trevor Booker was the big free agent get from this group, and a few others landed in Utah via D-League call-ups, waiver claims and camp contract Hail Marys. But the rest of the roster — eight guys in all — landed in the Beehive at least partially as the result of trades.

Gordon Hayward was a 2010 Jazz draft pick, but only after Utah scored that pick in a trade six years earlier. If it feels like he, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and others were gifts straight from David Stern’s podium, it’s only because sometimes trades have a way of stringing themselves out.

I love a good trade trail. It’s fascinating to trace a single thread of transactions through multiple seasons or even eras. Like when a 1976 pick swap survives 35 years. Or when you decide to skip the draft for a year and then wind up with a decade’s worth of shooting guards.

We’ll get to those examples in a minute. First, let’s cover the trade trails that are still alive and have helped put the current Jazz roster together.

Meech, Rice and DWill

Chances are you remember John Amaechi for his post-career revelations. Or you may remember how Larry Miller decided to pursue him after he “kicked our ass,” but then he mostly disappointed in his 104 games despite being a genuinely nice guy. What you may or may not remember is that he and Glen Rice started a series of transactions that indirectly put four current Jazz men on the roster and yielded two other still-active assets.

OK, in fairness, this trail of deals is really about Deron Williams. But the assets needed to get up to #3 and select Williams in the first place started to come together when the Jazz made deals to absorb Rice and later Detroit’s Elden Campbell.

(Key: Blue is a new asset being introduced into a trade trail; grey is an asset produced by the trade trail; red is an end point; green is a player or asset that is still active.)

John Amaechi & Glen Rice trade trail

The Williams deal is the ultimately example of a gift that keeps on giving. The original haul – Derrick Favors, Devin Harris, and picks — was always solid, but the Jazz have continued to parlay assets forward and eke more basketball value out of the deal.

Sure, they surrendered Enes Kanter for ostensibly less than his full value. But his $70 million price tag and his apparent attitude indicate that the Jazz were smart to roll that into more opportunities while they could. And even Trey Burke landed in Utah only after the Jazz used an asset from the DW deal to move up for him in the 2013 draft.

What’s interesting about this chain of deals is that it might not be over. Depending on what the Jazz do with those future picks (and even players), the assets that stemmed from using Amaechi and Carlos Arroyo to take on Rice’s and Campbell’s salaries could keep producing for the Jazz.

Googs to Gordon

Gugliotta salary dump trade trail

What’s impressive about this train is that the players they surrendered as initial assets in this equation were all entirely done being NBA players. Seriously: none of them played a single NBA minute after being dealt out of Utah.

When you look at it that way, the Jazz gave up a little bit of cap room and four guys who were done anyway in exchange for a Tom Gugliotta rental, a Greg Ostertag swan song, the rights to be used as leverage by Ante Tomic’s agent… and Gordon Hayward.

This deal should be in GM textbooks. What magical dust do you have to sprinkle on some cap space and four guys with injury problems to turn that mess into a 19-5-4 team-leading stud who will be making All-Star teams soon?

The only blight here is giving up on a former #16 pick in Kirk Snyder, but since Snyder never made it past his rookie contract, I think it’s safe to say that the Jazz weren’t wrong to move on.

The rest of Utah’s active trade trails

Another three deals landed Rudy Gobert, Raul Neto and Rodney Hood in Salt Lake City, along with a bunch of picks.

Other trade trails: Gobert, Neto, Hood

There’s not much else we need to say about the Green-for-Gobert deal. It already looks like an all-time fleecing, and will only look more criminal every time the Stifle Tower finishes a season All-Defense or as the universe’s best rim protector.

It’s easy to forget that Neto was actually a byproduct of the Memo Okur salary dump. I hated that deal at the time. Okur was one of my guys in that locker room, and hugely important to the Jazz. What I didn’t realize then was that his body only had 17 NBA games left in it, so getting something of value was actually a good move. Then, when a guy they liked was available at #47 after they had just used #46 to move up for Gobert, the Jazz had an asset to use to get Atlanta to select Neto for them and move his rights across.

And then, of course, we have the Golden State deal. This was another one many didn’t love at the time, largely because door number two involved re-signing fan fave Paul Millsap and taking a swing at some free agents that probably would have fit.

But guess what: two years later, those assets are all still active, and one has turned into a pretty impressive-looking wing in Hood. Randy Foye’s inclusion was a zero-cost bonus since they were letting him go anyway, and rolling him in as a sign-and-trade piece to the larger deal netted the Jazz an extra Denver 2nd.

That’s eight of Utah’s guys that were acquired at least partially via trade, including some longer payoffs that required patience and/or more asset maneuvering.

Building via trades, draft and signings.

Historical trade trails

Like I said, I love stringing these chains through different generations to see how teams keep an asset alive over time.

For example, take the 1996 Jazz. Utah was coming off 55 wins and a 7-game loss in the Conference Finals, and probably didn’t feel like the #25 pick would get them over the hump. So they deferred the pick, drafting Martin Muursepp for the Heat in exchange for their 2000 1st rounder.

Turns out the Jazz were right about not needing Muursepp. They went on to make two Finals, and the trade later produced an entire decade of wing production for the Jazz as it turned into guards DeShawn Stevenson, Gordan Giricek and (when combined with another late 1st rounder) Kyle Korver. So in exchange for two late picks, the Jazz wound up with a trio of guards who appeared in a total of 628 Jazz games, playing 12,288 collective minutes between 2000 and 2010.

The Martin Muursepp trade trail

Yet no string of trades compares to the one that landed Andrei Kirilenko in Utah. That one starts back in 1976 and includes names like AD and Magic.

When the Jazz signed Laker free agent and eventual Hall of Famer Gail Goodrich to a contract in July 1976, league rules mandated compensation to L.A. Utah was required to swap several upcoming picks, including surrendering the 1979 pick that became #1 overall and was used to put Magic Johnson in Hollywood. As part of that deal, Utah also wound up with a 1978 first rounder that they traded for Joe Meriweather. But the fun was just beginning. Meriweather turned into Spencer Haywood, Haywood turned into Adrian Dantley, and the story continued on, all the way to 2011.

The Gail Goodrich trade trail

There’s a lot that’s fascinating about this particular grouping of deals, starting with the fact that the Jazz gave up what turned into a chance to draft Magic Johnson. And let’s be clear: the Jazz got absolutely jobbed in that Dantley deal, even if it eventually produced Kirilenko. Tripucka was a 21.6 ppg career scorer when they got him, but he never fit in his two Utah seasons, and Kent Benson was low-value filler.

But it’s also amazing to think that assets generated by a transaction clear back in July 1976 were still in play until Kirilenko left the Jazz in the summer of 2011. That’s 35 years spanned by these interconnected transactions, and the players involved in those deals played a total of 2,076 games for the franchise.

The string also included multiple HOFers and All-Stars. Dantley brought the Jazz to prominence in the 80s, and Kirilenko is in the franchise’s top 10 in just about every imaginable category. Or the Jazz could have held onto Jack Givens, who averaged 6.7 points over two seasons.

Yeah, probably a good call.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.

When he isn't writing about the Jazz, Matt Pacenza is an environmental activist, Arsenal fan and world-class blowhard about many matters. A native of upstate New York, with a background in journalism and nonprofits, Matt lives near Liberty Park with his wife and two sons.

It’s hard to exaggerate how woeful the Jazz point guard play was last year.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that even with such poor production at PG, the Jazz by the end of 2014-15 were a playoff-caliber team in the loaded West. Improvement at point guard — even to just league average — could be the key move that propels this young and improving team forward.

However, I’m skeptical that the next good Jazz point guard is currently on the Jazz roster. While I’d acknowledge that it would be absurd to dismiss Dante Exum after just one season, it’s basically impossible to find a successful NBA player who started out his career with such minimal production. (See this list of all guards who played at least 500 minutes as rookies but had a PER of 7 or under.) I’d love it if Exum broke that mold, but that may not be realistic.

Smart analysts have already identified intriguing potential trade targets at PG for the Jazz. If those don’t pan out, what about free agency? Free agent PG rankings (see HoopsHype and Basketball Insiders) start with several restricted free agents most likely to stay with their current rosters (Brandon Knight and Patrick Beverley), a coveted unrestricted free agent likely to choose Miami over anywhere else (Goren Dragic) and a few guys who the Jazz hopefully have no interest in (Rajon Rondo and Reggie Jackson).

But there, at #6, a name jumps out. What if I told you that a 26-year-old point guard with an above average career PER — despite playing on some highly dysfunctional teams — is available? A guy with decent shooting and assist numbers and the ability to create shots for himself and teammates? A guy who can likely be had on a good contract for not too much money or for too many years?

Credit: ESPN The Magazine. Photographer: Joe Pugliese

I think the Jazz should think long and hard about making a free agency offer to Jeremy Lin.

I’m going to delve into some pluses and minuses about the Jazz acquiring Lin below, but before I do, I’d urge everyone to read Pablo Torre’s amazing ESPN The Magazine’s profile of Lin from this past March. It’s a terrific story and puts Lin’s recent production into an important context.

The Positive

Lin exploded on to the scene with seven excellent weeks of NBA basketball (Linsanity!) before a knee injury in March 2012 cut his Cinderella Knicks season short. It was brief, but it was fantastic:

Two up-and-down seasons with the Rockets followed, before last year’s frustrating run with the Lakers.

What’s interesting, though, is that while my perception of Lin is that he didn’t play very well in either Houston or Los Angeles, his numbers are actually pretty solid. Last year with the Lakers was widely characterized as disastrous — Kobe mocked him! Bryron Scott benched him! — but let’s compare a few of his key numbers to the Jazz PG production:

2014-15

TS%

3FG%

AST%

PER

Lin

.539

.369

28.6

15.6

Burke

.455

.318

25.0

12.6

Exum

.457

.314

16.6

5.7

Those offensive numbers for Lin aren’t elite, but they’re solid. He remains an average PG on offense, even in a tumultuous season. Here’s a bit more detail:

Lin’s three-point shooting has steadily improved each of the past four years, from 32 percent to 37 percent.

Lin continues to draw fouls at a high rate, though these numbers declined some with the Lakers. He averaged 5.1 FTA per 36 minutes last year. Of the 100 guards who played at least 1,000 minutes, Lin ranked 14th in the league in FT rate. (Not surprisingly, Exum ranked dead last.)

The Negative

Some key numbers for Lin are trending in the wrong direction. During that celebrated Knicks season, Lin’s game had a little Harden to it. He took mostly shots at the rim and from 3 and gave out a ton of assists. A few of those Moneyball ratios have shifted, unfavorably:

With the Knicks, 57 percent of Lin’s shots came within 10 feet of the rim — by last year, only 42 percent did. And Lin shot most poorly from mid-range, shots which he took more of last year. Very poorly. On long 2s, he shot just 32 percent, for example.

The shift in Lin’s game away from the rim towards the mid-range has led to a declining 2FG%. It was 47-49 percent with the Knicks and Rockets before declining to 44 percent last year.

Lin’s assists per-36-minutes have dropped from 8.3 to 6.4. That’s the difference between being an elite assist man — think Jeff Teague this year — to average at the position.

Now, while those trends are worrisome, it’s important to remember the widespread sense that the 2014-15 Lakers under Byron Scott weren’t well coached. The team famously shunned the 3-pointer, in an era when nearly every NBA team, including the Jazz, are taking more and more.

It’s reasonable to expect that with better coaching, Lin would take more shots at the rim and from 3, boosting his efficiency and production.

A couple other areas of concern for Lin:

His turnover numbers, while improving, continue to be high. Even during his Knicks run, Lin turned the ball over frequently during his daring dashes to the rim. The good news is that those numbers have steadily improved during each of the past four years, but his turnover ratio remains high: Last year, he turned the ball over on 13 percent of possessions, leaving him 64th out of 74 NBA point guards.

Reviews of Lin’s defense are mixed. He’s good size for a point guard, at 6’ 3’’, but isn’t considered particularly quick. He hasn’t played for terribly good defensive teams. The deepest dive on his defense was a post last summer from Fern Rea on Raining3s.com which concluded Lin is better than popular sentiment would believe, calling him “a tireless worker who makes up what he lacks in quickness and lateral movement with effort, size and smarts.”

Conclusion

Clearly, a trade for a young talent like Jrue Holiday would represent a stronger upgrade at point guard than signing Jeremy Lin. But if the Jazz strike out on the trade market, I believe that Lin at the right price would be a worthwhile gamble.

Lin’s value is low right now. What if the Jazz could get him for two years, $10 million? Signing Lin at such a modest price wouldn’t mean the Jazz were giving up on Dante Exum. Rather, Lin could step into the role that Trey Burke played late last year: coming off the bench to anchor the second unit offense. And on nights when the Jazz need more offense than Exum can offer, Lin could play more minutes and even close games. Lin is unlikely to play defense as well as Exum did by the end of his rookie season, but would be an upgrade over Burke.

The most likely scenario for Lin is that he never returns to his burst of success as Knick. However, even the Lin of the past three years would be a significant upgrade from the Jazz PG play the past few years.

Watching highlights of Lin also reminded me that he has a particular flair for passes to bigs — lobs and clever entry passes. Imagine Gobert and Favors on the receiving end of a few of those each night. Imagine a ball handling guard to take the pressure off Hayward on a few nights.

I also think it’s possible that Lin improves. I’m not one to put too much stock into intangibles, but after a rough season in the spotlight in Los Angeles, might mellow Salt Lake City and an improving Jazz team be a great environment to get back on track.

Author information

Matt Pacenza

When he isn't writing about the Jazz, Matt Pacenza is an environmental activist, Arsenal fan and world-class blowhard about many matters. A native of upstate New York, with a background in journalism and nonprofits, Matt lives near Liberty Park with his wife and two sons.

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

In the midst of rampant Jazz optimism and excitement, Trey Burke occupies a strange place. He’s recently been spared some of the harsher critiques often levied on him during tougher days for the team as a whole, but the tides have swung again in the last couple weeks, and whether he’s truly deserving of such a respite based on his level of play alone is debatable. Gleaning a true answer here depends in large part upon how one separates Trey’s play from that of many of his teammates, and even then the water remains muddy to a point.

Utah made the switch to Burke as a sixth man of sorts on January 22nd, or 28 games ago. While some may have blown it a tad out of proportion, there’s no doubting the significance of such a move even as he’s continued to receive ample playing time, often even the lion’s share over Dante Exum. When these minutes come is quite important as well, and the switch meant a larger portion would be against (and with) weaker players.

So how has the move impacted him individually? Some simple, raw data first. Here are Burke’s per-36-minute figures before the switch, and then those from after:

One thing is certain right away: Trey has embraced his role as the “captain” of the second unit, of sorts. A guy who already wasn’t shy about firing away has upped his attempts from the field significantly, and seems to have done so while subtracting a bit of the playmaking he was slowly developing. His usage has gone well up, at over a quarter of all Jazz possessions while on the floor since the mid-January move. And on the surface, this makes sense – more minutes with Utah’s bench guys, not exactly the cream of the NBA crop offensively, means a heavier burden on Burke himself.

But while it’s good that he’s upped his efficiency from 3, it’s hard to be encouraged as he remains a woefully subpar shooter overall – that ugly figure only looks worse against lesser average competition, and it’s barely the tip of the iceberg. Trey was shooting just 49.2 percent within five feet of the basket before the changeover, one of the 15 worst figures in the league among rotation guards…but he’s spiraled down to an unfathomable 38.7 percent since. This is, again, on a 28-game sample, easily enough to make some conclusions; were this figure to be extrapolated out over a full season, it would blow away the league-low mark among qualified guards over the last half-decade.

The Jazz as a team have struggled, particularly recently, with getting good looks during the meat of the shot clock, and Trey is something of a microcosm here as well. Rather than help his ability to generate acceptable shots before the timer starts to run down, his move to the bench has had the opposite effect: Burke was taking just under 30 percent of his attempts in the final seven seconds of the shot clock pre-switch, but that’s ballooned to nearly 40 percent since Exum replaced him in the starting lineup, per NBASavant. On the year, only three players (LeBron James, LaMarcus Aldridge and James Harden) have attempted more late-clock shots, but Trey’s percentage (33.9) places him 94th among 117 guys attempting at least 100.

Simply put, it’s looking more and more like this just isn’t a good shooter at the NBA level, in any context. Burke hasn’t found his time against second units beneficial as far as space goes. It’s had slightly the opposite effect, in fact – his jumpers from beyond ten feet have actually seen their average defender distance decrease a hair since the switch.

Moreover, even when he does get open looks, he’s still struggling badly to make them compared with the rest of the league. I mentioned Trey’s uncontested shooting when I gauged his progress back in January just a couple weeks before the switch, and though he’s actually improved several points since that time, he remains among the worst volume open shooters in the entire league. On the year, 102 players at all positions have attempted 250 or more of these uncontested jumpers (10 feet or more from the hoop, no defender within four feet) – Trey ranks 101st, or second-to-last, at just 33.2 percent. And to make matters worse, only 20 guys in this same group have attempted more such shots than Burke.

At this point, there’s basically no question opponents are basing much of their scouting report around funneling Trey into jump-shooting areas and hoping he’ll fire away. Burke’s mixture of volume and inefficiency is approaching somewhat historic levels, and for the wrong reasons. Should his current pace hold, he’d become just the 16th player in league history to play over 2,000 minutes, attempt at least 13 shots per game, and shoot 37 percent or worse from the field. Note the years on that list – Trey’s run of inefficiency hasn’t been duplicated on such a large scale since the mid-sixties.

All of this is shooting alone, but Burke continues to struggle in other relevant areas just as before, which only compounds the issues. He can’t defend the pick-and-roll against any competent pair running it, and teams will frequently go right at him until Quin Snyder is forced to either yank him, hide him elsewhere, or just watch the carnage unfold. He’s awful in transition, worst among all Jazz players for per-possession efficiency and in the league’s bottom 10 here among 109 guys who have used at least 100 possessions on the break, per Synergy. The list goes on.

And yet, in a cumulative team sense, one could argue the switch has been beneficial for all parties. Lineups with Burke were being outscored at a 5.5 points per-100-possessions clip before the move, but have begun outpacing opponents by a solid 3.3 per-100 since the change. These units have been able to defend at top-five full-season levels over a reasonable minutes sample, a large accomplishment with Trey in the lineup even if it’s mostly due to the play of others (and is still worse than nearly all other Jazz rotation players).

Unfortunately, a bit of further exploration reveals much of this to be a mirage. It’s certainly encouraging that Utah has managed to outscore opponents with Trey on the floor in this time, particularly while maintaining the strong defensive culture that’s coming to define the team. But viewed through the lens of Utah’s success as a whole, the numbers become far less impressive. Burke’s pre-switch on-court net efficiency wasn’t great, but it was only about 1.5 points worse than the team’s overall rating – since the change, it’s actually about 2.5 points worse, a sign that the team as a whole is progressing more quickly than Burke himself.

In particular, it appears much of the success of these lineups while Trey is on the floor is due to the aggregate being skewed by the time he spends with Utah’s stars, which is still plentiful (particularly in games where Exum struggles). When Burke plays with Gordon Hayward or Derrick Favors (or often both) in the time since his move to the bench, the Jazz are thoroughly outperforming the opposition.

But Trey’s distribution here has flattened out over this time; he was playing nearly 80 percent of his minutes with Hayward and roughly 75 percent with Favors pre-switch, but is down to about 50-50 with both since the move. And when Burke is on the floor without either Jazz star, per nbawowy.com, the seemingly positive figures disintegrate. The Jazz are dominated on both ends of the floor with Trey as their de facto offensive captain, forced to watch him attempt a stunning 18.5 shots from the field per-36-minutes while shooting just 34 percent. These figures are actually slightly worse than his solo minutes before moving to the bench – a growing sample appears to suggest that Burke is less than capable as a leading man against both starters and bench units, and that even as a supporting piece to Utah’s stars, he’s thriving less than nearly any other Jazzman in their recent run of success.

As always, all hope is not lost. As I mentioned in his January evaluation, point guards are historically more likely than any other position (if still mostly unlikely in general) to bloom in late fashion, and this is far from out of the question for Burke. His defensive issues haven’t come due to a lack of effort – Trey has clearly put in time in his weaker areas and has improved elements like his footwork and pick recognition, though his physical limitations are still holding him back here a great deal.

Importantly, he remains an absolute professional, a truly impressive young man as far as the way he’s handled a bevy of issues often directed squarely at him. Trey is likely the most thoughtful and self-aware interview in the Jazz locker room, and is consistently candid in assessing his own struggles. Some might confuse his on-court troubles with a selfish attitude or an unwillingness to learn, but to this eye, this couldn’t be further from the case. His physical tools may not ever lend themselves to a fashionably late upswing, but if such a window ever does open up, this is a guy who’s shown the work ethic to get there.

But the clock continues to tick. Next season will be the second-last where Trey is under his cost-controlled rookie contract, and his current level of play is only subtracting dollar figures from his next deal. If Exum can channel the missing mental side of his game and take some of the steps offensively the Jazz are surely hoping for by next season, Burke could find the minutes distribution tilting even more heavily away from him. He has a long way to go to convince Utah he’s worth retaining beyond his rookie deal as a long-term piece in any capacity.

Author information

Ben Dowsett

Ben Dowsett is a life-long Jazz fan and current in-depth analyst based in Salt Lake City. He also writes for Basketball Insiders and BBallBreakdown, and can be heard on SCH Radio on ESPN 700 weekly. He can be found on Twitter at @Ben_Dowsett.

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.

Hayward is playing the best ball of his career — and has the game balls to prove it. (Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images)

You’re going to read a lot about Gordon Hayward in this fourth edition of the Game Ball rankings.

Another batch of glowing recognition for some of Utah’s recent victory engineers seemed like exactly what Jazzland needed after a tough loss to the Lakers. After every Jazz win (and with the help of the social media community), I assess the game’s arc to give a game ball to the person who most contributed to the win or whose performance we’ll most associate with the win in our collective memory.

All along, Hayward’s name has been all over these rankings, and he cemented his leadership in the fake award department with an unbelievable stretch of ball recently. He got all three available game balls during a six-game stretch where he averaged 26, 6 and 5 on 52-52-80 shooting. Since December 17, the date when the Jazz appeared to have magically reinvented themselves as a good ball club, Hayward has been a 20-4-5 stud.

I’m running out of of ways to quantify just how good he’s been and why we shouldn’t take this for granted. How about this: his Real Plus-Minus is 4.47, 22nd in the league. Four and up is pretty much All-Star level. His RPM-derived Wins Above Replacement is 7.86, which is eerily in line with the eight total game balls he’ll have after you’ve read this post. That’s 15th in the league.

And he has a healthy lead in the SCH Game Ball rankings. Read on…

Jazz 110, Warriors 100 – Gordon Hayward

I shouldn’t even need to defend this one: 26 points, 15 rebounds, 6 assists and 3 steals. Enough said. Need more evidence of how he dictated his will in this game? 17 of his 26 were scored in the paint or at the line.

Also considered: Trevor Booker deserves some credit for 17-7-3 and his usual insane energy. Enes Kanter called this one in rather ballsy fashion (but only played 18 minutes), and as Matt Harpring kept reminding us, Quin Snyder had a great game plan to knock the West’s best off their game.

Jazz 102, Kings 90 – Gordon Hayward

I almost fell into the trap of overthinking this one. Derrick Favors had an impressively versatile game, and Enes Kanter’s physicality on DeMarcus Cousins was as big as his 17-and-13 line. But seeing @ESPNNBA, @NBAStats and even @NBA tweet out about Gordon’s 30 reminded me that I shouldn’t outsmart myself. He’s just hitting a whole new level right now, and I hope it’s not lost on Jazz fans.

Also considered: Favors (20-9-5) and Kanter (17 & 13).

Jazz 100, Pelicans 96 – Gordon Hayward

Has Hayward ever had a better stretch in his career than his pre-break run? 32-7-8-2-1 were the raw numbers, but that doesn’t even cover it. The way he took charge late — on the road, no less — was the stuff of stars. Here’s what he did JUST in the final 4:20 after NOP took an 87-86 lead: stole the ball, sunk two free throws, assisted a Dante Exum jumper, short jumper in the lane, the awesome long J on iso, and four free throws to seal it.

Also considered: I’d say Steve Novak for his flurry of 3s (in retrospect, Novak’s two nice pre-break games might have helped the Jazz make their February 19 deal), but really this was Hayward’s, period.

Jazz 92, Blazers 76 – Rudy Gobert

When we look back on this one, we’ll probably think of it both as Rudy’s “this gig is mine” game and as Trey Burke’s “check out my sweet floater” game. Ultimately, I think the game story was more about Gobert, but it was close. Before any of us ever turned on the TV, the game story was “Rudy’s taking over.” In a game that was all about defense — holding one of the league’s best offenses to 76 points and an 82.9 ORtg — Gobert didn’t disappoint. His personal DRtg was 80.7 (!!!) and he had four blocks while helping limit LaMarcus Aldridge to 5/16 shooting.

Also considered: Burke had one of his better games in a while, and put on a nice display of floaters. And, if I’m going to mention Trey for 19-0-3 on 20 shots, I better give credit to GH for 20-4-3 on 13 shots. Quin Snyder again. And, for the sentimental folks, Larry H. Miller (McCade’s idea) on the anniversary of his passing.

Jazz 90, Spurs 81 – Trey Burke

Taken on the aggregate, those two games might be the best of Burke’s career. He had 42 points on 37 shots, scored from all over, and is visibly getting better at making the defense react to his probing. He played better D on the pick-and-roll than I can remember (his DRtg was 81.3), and hit one timely shot after another as the Jazz held off the Spurs. He was 6-for-12 on contested jumpers. Just had a great night. (And, I’ll be honest, since I was 50/50 on Burke/Gobert after each of the last two, I figured the safest way to address that was to give one to each.)

Also considered: Holy Gobert. Held Spurs to 33% shooting at the rim (12 attempts, and deterred a whole bunch of others). Ran the floor, grabbed 14 boards. Booker also had a nice impact, and Dante Exum’s D on Parker was an undersung factor in the win.

21 Jazz wins’ worth of game ball awards. (Click to enlarge)

Some other game ball thoughts:

Interesting how aligned the rankings are with WAR, at least at the top. As mentioned above, Hayward has eight imaginary game balls and a WAR of almost exactly 8. Favors and Gobert have been honored with four and three metaphorical leather spheres, respectively, and have WAR figures of 4.29 and 3.02.

The trend breaks with Burke. I’ve given him three game balls, and his WAR (-0.28) seems to think I’ve been unabashedly generous to the second-year guard. That’s the worst WAR on the team. But I wouldn’t take back any of his three game balls. I think this seeming contradiction just speaks (accurately) to the dichotomy in Burke’s game right now. When the right couple of things are going Trey’s way, he can be a tremendous help. When they’re not going right, he can really struggle. I joked during Mo Williams’ second Utah stint that some nights we got “Good Decision Mo” and some nights we got “Bad Decision Mo.” Good Decision Burke absolutely helps Utah win ball games. I hope we see him more often in the remaining 26 games.

Since now you’re wondering, the rest of the Jazz’s rotation players rank like this: after G-Fav-Rudy there’s a big gap and then you have Millsap, Exum, Booker, Evans, Hood, Ingles, and then Burks/Burke (tied) and Kanter.

Twitter chums often suggest in the post-game discussion that a game ball be awarded to a role player who offered a timely spark. That’s a very different type of thing than game ball. Unless someone like that takes the game over for an important stretch, this award isn’t for “energy guy,” or “bench sniper,” or even “fan favorite on a nice night.” Take over at a key moment, do something historical, or be the Jazz’s best player on an empirical level. Those are the ways to get a Spalding, not just hustling or knocking down a couple threes.

I often get asked if coaches and front office personnel can win the game. Sure, as evidenced by Quin Snyder’s game ball from the OKC game. But my overarching philosophy is that a player should win it unless there’s a really obvious reason. Snyder’s came on the “Wake Up!!” game, for example. Aside from something like that, there aren’t many angles I can think of where a coach or executive would be in the first sentence of my hypothetical game recap.

In three words: “That night when…” That’s how we decide who gets game ball.

Author information

Dan Clayton

Dan covered Utah Jazz basketball for more than 10 years, including as a radio analyst for the team’s Spanish-language broadcasts from 2010 to 2014. He now lives and works in New York City, but contributes regularly to Salt City Hoops and BBALLBreakdown.