So, I was jamming my naija playlist the other day and Ovuloria motioned to me saying it was too loud, as she picked a phone call. Meanwhile, there I was nodding my head to “Shitor ooo, Shitor”, my inner selfish kicked in and I motioned for her to move to kindly the other room. As the playlist progressed, it got to a tune I was not really feeling. After a minute or so, I made to reduce the volume, because I then felt the music was too loud. Just then I saw the next tune on the list. I did a fastforward to the comforting chant – “Heyyy Maleek Berry pon dis”. I suddenly needed more volume. As they say in Warri, I gave it belle and the room filled with more chants of …”too much juice, too much sauce…”. Hmmm…I nodded away as I sipped #15.

What you saw up there is classic human behavior. At times, the mood changes or situations change and that tune previously listened to and enjoyed at the same volume, becomes too loud and you instinctively drop the volume. Sometimes, it gets so bad that you fast forward or remove it from the playlist altogether.

This was what came to my mind today as I watched the ongoing BBOG anniversary program on ChannelsTV. As a sign of our collective hypocrisy, it did not take a few weeks into this administration for the same folks who saw this advocacy as a rallying point to expose the cluelessness and maybe even wickedness of the last administration, to now see them as meddlesome gnats. So much so that some “supporters” of this admin even went to one of the BBOG events to disrupt their march in a counter show of support.

My heart goes out to all the families who have been impacted by the insurgency in the North East. Thousands have been killed and hundreds abducted, including under-aged boys and girls who have been used as “wives” to terrorists and as trainee insurgents and suicide bombers.

While I commend the current administration for the work done so far in pushing the terrorists to the fringes, I would also advise that we need to put a strong focus on the root causes that give rise to extremism, terrorism and insurgency and makes this find an appealing place in the minds of our young ones in areas where this is prevalent.

I am still keenly waiting for the details of government’s plan to absorb the illegal refineries operators into the mainstream. The VP is reported to have said “Our approach to that is that we must engage them (illegal refiners) by establishing modular refineries so that they can participate in legal refineries. We have recognized that young men must be properly engaged.”

I hope this is targeted more at the owners who established these refineries than the workers employed there? This is because what drives this is really illicit profit more than unemployment – and this is not saying unemployment is not a problem.

What I have picked up so far from news reports, is that there are plans for government to either build and partner or gather these folks into cooperatives and empower them to build and operate small capacity (1,000 bpd, etc.) type modular refineries.

Why this interests me is the following:

How do they plan to create incentive in this business?

Recall that the chief driver for this illegal activity is the combination of very low cost inputs and medium to high value outputs from:

Free crude oil, ready market and poor enforcement by authorities.

So they basically get their “plant” crude oil feed for free.

Simple operations.

What they do is a crude form of “Topping” or atmospheric distillation, with the aim of making diesel. They start by heating crude oil up to 350-400oC. This is done in two stages. The bottoms from the first stage is mostly bitumen. The distillate is moved to a next stage vessel and cooled to get diesel. The other by-products like fuel oils, gasses, jet fuel/kerosene and gas oils are not properly extracted and are disposed indiscriminately to the environment. Note that diesel is about 27-32% of crude oil types available in Nigeria. In a proper refinery, the next stages would be conversion and treating. These are quite complex steps involving different chemical processes, materials and equipment. This is where you’ll find scaled up refineries producing gasoline (petrol), LPG, etc.

Proximity to crude.

They are usually sited a small distance from the pipeline where the oil is stolen from. So, no real transport cost.

I suppose they can still get greenfield tax incentives for 5 years, per the regulations when they now go legal. So, this is a soft one.

“Irregular” employment practices….and that is being modest.

These guys run as a cartel with a local strong man overseeing things. Nobody dey strike o. You don’t like the conditions – you leave. But I hear the money is not bad.

All these help to lower cost of operations a great deal and maximize profit.

*Note that refineries’ profits are determined by size and complexity, crude type and product slate, logistics, operational efficiency and regulatory environment. Generally, their margins run from minus (-ive) to 18% with 11-13% being the average for North America. I have not been able to gather data in Nigeria to determine how we have run in the past, for reasons of not having profit driven refining operations.

Conclusion

Whatever partnership, help, subsidies/loans and waivers the FG intends to give these operators, I don’t see how health, safety, environmental and product quality standards can be lowered. So, that element of operational cost will still be there to “temper” profit margins. Hopefully, government will still find a way to create incentive for this plan to work, regardless. I trust that they have enough people in the policy space of this sector, who understand the problem and can proffer solutions and advice on implementation.

All in all, reaching out in an inclusive manner in trying to solve this problem, in a win-win manner, is a good initiative.

When a fire incident occurs, the first thing that happens is that emergency services are called in. They arrive at the site as fast as possible, take a quick assessment of the situation, start putting out the fire depending on the “possible sources” based on feedback from witnesses, go in to rescue the inhabitants, create a “water wall” between adjourning houses to prevent escalation, etc. They ensure the fire is fully put out and everyone is out of harm’s way before leaving the site.

What they just did was to respond to consequence.

The next step is to call investigators in. Their brief is to identify root causes and recommend actions to prevent recurrence. Depending on the situation they may also arrive in tandem with the folks responding to the consequence. These guys use a combination of data gathering, sequence of events mapping, determining protective systems that worked, failed or were not present, etc. They arrive at immediate, intermediate and root causes and recommend corrective and preventative actions targeted at these. After this report is passed on to the relevant authorities, it is then implemented.

In the case of the fire above, investigators determine that the fire started from an overheated electrical wire supplying a 2 hp air conditioner. This is the immediate cause.

It was also observed that the home did not have early warning devices like smoke detectors and the overload prevention did not meet the spec required. The AC wall plug was also observed to have been near the curtain/blinds of that room. The home owner also kept their only fire extinguisher on a floor below the one where the fire started. Those were protective systems that did not work or were not available.

The investigators also found out that the cables used for the 2hp AC were not rated to carry the load and possible surge. This is an intermediate cause.

The home owner actually had a 1.5 hp installed initially and upgraded to a 2HP without changing the wiring or ensuring that it met spec. A visit to the municipal authorities also showed that the home in question had their building permit issued without specifying the different cable specifications for all the possible equipment that could have been installed based on electrical code specification. This is root cause.

Recommendations were made and implemented, at municipal level, that addressed electrical codes and ratings notification, inspections and enforcement/sanctions, awareness communication around the number of and location of extinguishers in the room per specific risk, keeping flammable materials away from likely electrical heat sources and reinforcement of the building permits process to address all these concerns.

While I agree that the approach above is currently applied in general conflict resolution and civil strife in this country, I am not convinced that the same is done to tackle the specific issue of terrorism and insurgency in a “visible” manner.

Some quick (proactive and reactive) suggestions

Ensure the rule of law. Do not create reasons (outside the law) for deification/martyrdom of individuals and ideas

Regulate religious teachings to weed out extremism. This must be done by the state and supported by religious leaders. Punitive measures must be applied through targeted legislation.

Respected local and religious leaders should focus on preaching the counter narrative. This has to be a deliberate and concerted campaign.

Strictly enforce the UBE clause that mandates education for all up to JS3. This refers to the federal and not religious curricula. Take kids off the streets into class and then trade or any other gainful activity.

Sponsors, at all levels, must be exposed and punished with their sources of income/influence cut off permanently

I am afraid if this is not a strong focus, we will continue to have this periodic cycles of insurgency/terrorism. It is a long road, but we must start today.

Many years ago, a senior colleague, “Mr. Ade”, told me how he met his wife. He was driving in the rain and found her walking with two kids without an umbrella and with some uncoordinated pieces of luggage. When he stopped to offer them a ride, he saw that she was crying. They had nowhere to go. Her husband had just kicked them out of the house after she reported the last case of physical abuse to her parents and they sent him a warning.
This Good Samaritan offered them his home and in no time they were married. He told me this story as he invited me to his place for the naming ceremony of their third child together. Their fifth as joint parents.
One hears of all kinds of domestic violence nowadays. There are testimonies on radio talk shows, pictures on social media, news reports of the ones that ended in loss of life and limb and even others that one comes across from time to time in person. I am not trying to be prescriptive, but self preservation should trump emotions when DV becomes a constant in a relationship.
Adekunle Gold’s 2016 album, titled “Gold” is the best album I heard all 2016 whether from a local or international artiste. How do you listen to an Album over and over and only skip one of 16 songs? I digress. Track 13 – Fight for you, speaks about a victim of domestic violence and how the writer would not only want to protect her, but present himself as a better alternative.
It reminds me of Mr and Mrs Ade and the look on his face as he told me that story. My head swells whenever I hear that song. Adekunle Gold offers himself as one who would respect her and treat her like a king. He says in Yoruba – Aya Oba onsukun, Aya Oba onjiya (The wife of a King neither cries nor suffers).
Is she not your queen? Is he not your king? Why not treat one another as such?
For you who is still searching: find “the right one” and make sure you treat them right…always.
Good morning.SAN

That was how I was tending to mine and my neigbour’s lawns one time. As a routine, I would mow both lawns and water them from my sprinkler system. There were even times when I chased away stray animals and cleared anthills from my neigbours lawn. Even when they were out of town, I would ensure their yard was well looked after.

One time, I travelled for a few weeks and returned to meet my lawn overgrown, with dog poo everywhere, full of weed and sprouting a developing anthill. I looked across at my neigbour’s lawn and it was in immaculate condition. I was confused.
After toiling continuously for three days, I was able to get things under control in my yard. So, after my Saturday maintenance activity on my lawn, I washed up and oiled my calloused hands and went across to say hello to my neigbour. I was greeted with the usual warmth and pleasantries. I found a way to bring up the condition I met my lawn upon my return.
My neigbour said: “yes, we noticed things were not right at your yard, but we did not want to encroach. Also, we knew you would take care of it once you return”.
#Afamako.
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2019 will see the rise of the issue voter in Nigeria. Most people will be focused on issues like security, the economy, rule of law, corruption, poverty reduction, provision of infrastructure, etc. This is a progressive way to select preferred candidates after aggregating their performance on the core issues important to the voter. It is mostly subjective as the voter sees the performance from the prism of how these issues affect them. For instance, if the second Niger bridge is not completed in four years, there might be a voter backlash from residents of the South East regardless of the advances made in delivering, say the Kano-Lagos or the Calabar-Lagos rail lines, power sector reform goals, etc.

Some will still vote based on hang-ups of 2015 and the other ethnic colorations and the other non-progressive markers that exist everywhere there are people with differences. That will most never leave world politics. On the other hand there will be some who will be single issue voters. These are the ones that will focus on just one issue dear to their heart and not even care about the candidates performance on the other equally if not more important issues.

I will be a single issue voter in 2019. I will focus on an issue that is dear to me. I will not bother too much about the other ones. I will leave those to you. Also, I believe the government will do well on the critical indices given the opportunities that abound and within the context of local and global constraints.

My single issue will be sensitivity. Is that progressive? I’m not sure, but that’s where my heart leads me.

One time I was involved in some civil construction work. Through it I met many artisans, equipment and materials vendors and all kinds of professionals.

I had one artisan/sub-contractor who I will call Tunde. He was very good at his job. His English was not perfect, but I understood all his text messages and quotes. He could use technology. He would proactively shoot me pictures to explain a point and show progress. He was very loyal and supportive. I came to trust him because he had many opportunities to cheat me or withhold what belonged to me and each time he passed the test with shinning colours.

But he had one problem. Let me explain.

Whenever we went out to select materials together, he would agree with all my choices.

“Oga this one good. I like am”.

“That one too sef good”.

“Yes, you fit take this one too if you like am. E fine well well”.

Me: But I bring you here because na you be expert. You need to tell me the reason why one better pass another one so that I go fit choose”

Tunde : OK Oga. Which one you like out of all of them? That one? OK. Na im fine pass. Make we buy that one. E go last and e fine.”

Very exasperating, to say the least.

So I stopped taking him out to select materials. I would ask him for the qualifying parameters prior to my store visits and then just go out and make a choice.

Then I would return and say “Wetin you think of this one?”

Him: Ah, Oga you get taste o, you sabi better thing o! This one dey very good. Na the best one”

And when I make an obvious error in giving work direction? He would not correct me. So it happened that we spent a lot of money to buy a material that was not suited for the specific application it was to be used for and it failed. It cost money and more materials to remove it, get a different one and return to the site. So I asked him how come he later spoke like he knew that was going to happen. Yet he watched me through the decision phase to implementation and never stopped me or expressed a word of caution? Did he know how much that cost us in time, money and opportunity?

Tunde: Oga no vex Sir. I no want make you vex. I too believe you. I too small to correct you. Who I be for where you dey?” No vex Sir!

Me: Your job na to work for me and also advise when I dey go wrong. If you continue like this I go terminate our agreement and get someone else. Make you no fear me abeg. Na you know your work pass me. Na you be the expert. I go listen to you. Na you dey see wetin I no dey see. Dey tell me as e be every time abeg, you hear?

The books you buy, keep or read say a lot about your personality. One can easily guess taste and behavior trends by going through people’s books. What you read feeds your mind and ends up shaping your thoughts and behaviors.

I raided Doye’s book shelf recently and today being the World Book Day, I am sharing pictures from a random selection of this eclectic reader’s book choices through the years. Meanwhile, I have known Doye since I was maybe eight. He’s always been quite “bookish”. You should have seen his glasses before the Lasik. 😜😄🤓