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FEINBERG FORECAST: Everyone's Cards Are Now on the Table

Wesley Mann

THR's awards analyst dissects a barrage of results -- from the British Independent Film, European Film, National Board of Review and IDA awards ceremonies to the Boston, Los Angeles and New York Online film critics' votes.

Every week until the 86th Oscars on March 2, 2014, The Hollywood Reporter's lead awards analyst, Scott Feinberg, will post an updated "Feinberg Forecast," wherein he presents a summary of developments since the last update that helped to shape this one and then lists his revised projections. For more about Feinberg and how he arrives at his projections, scroll to the bottom of this post.

Box office: The weekend-after-Thanksgiving weekend was relatively soft at the box office, as is almost always the case. Disney's Frozen, in its second weekend, claimed the top slot, raking in $31.6 million, ahead of last weekend's topper, Lionsgate's The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which grossed $27 million in its third weekend. The biggest new wide release was Relativity Media's Out of the Furnace, which finished third with just $5.3 million in ticket sales, despite a number of very strong reviews and not inconsiderable awards buzz. The weekend's big standout, though, was CBS Films' Inside Llewyn Davis, which generated an astounding $401,000 from just four locations, or a $100,250 per-theater-average, the 18th highest ever.

Precursors: The 85th National Board of Review Awards honorees were revealed on Dec. 4, and the big winners included Her (best picture and best director Spike Jonze), Nebraska (best actor Bruce Dern and best supporting actor Will Forte) and Fruitvale Station (best supporting actress Octavia Spencer, best male breakthrough performance Michael B. Jordan and best directorial debut Ryan Coogler). ... The 29th IDA (International Documentary Association) Awards were presented on Dec. 6, and the big winner was The Square, which was recognized as best feature. ... The 26th European Film Awards were presented on Dec. 7, and the big winner was The Great Beauty, Italy's entry for the best foreign language film Oscar, which was recognized in the categories of best European film, best European director (Paolo Sorrentino) best European actor (Toni Servillo) and best European editor. ... The 39th Los Angeles Film Critics Association Awards were determined on Dec. 8, and the big winner was Gravity, which was recognized in the categories of best picture (tying with Her) and best director (Alfonso Cuaron). ... The 34th Boston Society of Film Critics Awards were determined on Dec. 8, and the big winner was 12 Years a Slave, which was recognized in the categories of best picture, best director (Steve McQueen) and best actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor). The Wolf of Wall Street was the runner-up in many categories. ... The 13th New York Film Critics Online Awards were determined on Dec. 8, and the big winner was 12 Years a Slave, which was recognized in the categories of best picture and best actor (Ejiofor). ... The 16th British Independent Film Awards were dished out on Dec. 8, and the big winner was Metro Manila, England's entry for the best foreign language film Oscar, which was recognized in the categories of best British independent film, best director (Sean Ellis) and best achievement in production. ... The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' visual effects branch executive committee released its short-list of 10 films from which the entire branch will eventually pick the five nominees for the best visual effects Oscar. Before that happens, though, the members of the visual effects branch will attend a "bakeoff" at which 10-minute excerpts from each of the finalists will be screened.

Moments in the spotlight: On Dec. 3, Darren Aronofsky, Peter Bogdanovich and Uma Thurman hosted a Focus Features screening of Dallas Buyers Club in honor of the film's supporting actor Jared Leto that drew the likes of Michael Cimino, Victor Garber, Brooke Shields, Maura Tierney and Patrick Wilson. ... Universal hosted a luncheon in New York for Lone Survivor on Dec. 4. The film's director-screenwriter Peter Berg, lead actor Mark Wahlberg and supporting actors Eric Bana and Ben Foster were joined by Foster's girlfriend Robin Wright and others. ... Former South African president Nelson Mandela, whose life story is the basis of The Weinstein Co.'s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, passed away at the age of 95 on Dec. 5. At the time, the film was having its royal premiere in London, with Britain's Prince William and Duchess Catherine in attendance. The film's producer Anant Singh, accompanied by star Idris Elba, broke the news to the audience as the film's credits rolled. ... On Dec. 6, Paramount hosted screenings of The Wolf of Wall Street for BFCA members in Los Angeles and New York simultaneously. The LA screening was introduced by the film's supporting actor hopeful Jonah Hill, who also attended a postscreening reception. ... On Dec. 6, DreamWorks Animation released a tongue-in-cheek "making-of featurette" to help promote its best animated feature hopeful The Croods. ... On Dec. 7, Bennett Miller hosted a Paramount screening of The Wolf of Wall Street followed by a dinner in honor of the film's supporting actor hopeful Hill, whom Miller directed in Moneyball (2011). Robert Forster, Anne Hathaway, Brett Ratner and Mickey Rooney were among those in attendance. ... Three best actor Oscar hopefuls -- ChiwetelEjiofor (12 Years a Slave), Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) and Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station) -- were featuredon the OWN Network's Oprah's Next Chapter, hosted by Lee Daniels' The Butler's best supporting actress Oscar hopeful Oprah Winfrey, on Dec. 8. ... The Dec. 8 edition of TheNew York Times featured a profileof The Past's best actress hopeful Berenice Bejo and afun look backat the making of Mary Poppins (1964) with Saving Mr. Banks subject Richard Sherman. ... The Weinstein Co. hosted a screening of Hong Kong's best foreign language film entry The Grandmaster, which it is distributing, at ICM on Dec. 9, followed by a reception with the film's star Ziyi Zhang and cinematographer Philippe Le Sourd. ... On Dec. 9, CBS's 60 MinutesprofiledMarcus Luttreell, the Iraq War veteran played by lead actor hopeful Mark Wahlberg in Lone Survivor. ... Disney mailed each member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association a copy of the CD "The Sherman Brothers Songbook" and a book of lyrics to songs from Mary Poppins, accompanied by a note from the aforementioned Sherman in which he states about Saving Mr. Banks: "I couldn't be happier with the outstanding film that John Lee Hancock has made. It was a pleasure serving as a musical consultant on the film, and sharing so many memories with the creative team. Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks beautifully capture the essence and spirit of P.L. Travers and Walt Disney. Jason Schwartzman and B.J. Novak do a wonderful job portraying my brother and me. Every member of the cast is terrific, and I am so grateful to have been part of the creative team. I would also like to express my great admiration for Thomas Newman's beautiful score for Saving Mr. Banks. It's a melodic masterpiece that perfectly complements the film in every way. Here's wishing you all a Supercalifragilistic... Jolly Holiday."

Announcements: The O.C. Film Society picked August: Osage County as its best ensemble of the year. ... The Palm Springs International Film Festival announced that the cast of American Hustle will receive its Ensemble Performance Award on Jan. 4 as part of the fest's 25th edition. ... The Santa Barbara International Film Festival announced that seven actors and actresses -- Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Color), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station), Brie Larson (Short Term 12), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club) and June Squibb (Nebraska) -- will receive its Virtuosos Awards on Feb. 9 as part of the fest's 29th edition.

Potpourri: Check out my recent interview with American Hustle/Out of the Furnace's lead actor hopeful Christian Bale, who was unusually candid with me about his life and career.

Scott has been forecasting the Oscars since 2001 and has one of the strongest track records of all awards pundits. His best showings came in 2006 and 2013, when he correctly called 21 out of 24 winners. He was the only pundit to project best picture nominations for The Reader (2008), The Blind Side (2009) and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011), among many other surprises.

He factors into his projections personal impressions (based on advance screenings of hundreds of films each year), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (comparing and contrasting how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others), and conversations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).

Key

Contenders' names are followed, when appropriate, by acronyms of the major awards groups (see below) that have already named them winners (in orange) or nominees (in purple). Some nominations are still pending (they appear in italics).