As Lonmin workers leave peacefully threat of dissent remains

According to an industry analyst- “this is only the beginning”

The Marikana protestors might be willing to return to work, however, there is still a threat of dissent as job cuts in the sector remain a possibility. Wednesday, the second day of the strike led by the Lonmin workers, took a turn for the better and showed a ray of hope for the unions Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu) and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) as the workers seem to have agreed to return to work first thing Thursday morning.

Despite the reprieve, there is a risk that this respite might just be momentary. This new wildcat strike risks jeopardising the Amcu’s reputation in the minds of its critics and of its image as a union that is incapable of listening to reason, the risk of further unprotected strikes could not be completely ruled out.

Industry analyst, Peter Attard Montalto, from investment banking group Namer Holdings said â€œThe NUM is publicly calling for calm, but internally we think it is very alarmed at the further erosion of its position, and while it has so far clearly dismissed the use of violence and illegal strike action locally, its control over more localised groupings of members is unclear”. The NUM is currently not responding to requests for comment.

Montalto also pointed out that the industry’s uncertainty was exacerbated by the fact that the major bargaining for an increase in wages has yet to start. He was quoted as saying: â€œPolice distrust remains very high because of evidence emerging at the Marikana commission into the tragedy of last year. Government leadership remains poor. We should not forget that Impala, and others in the platinum sector and other mining areas, are also considering sweeping restructurings similar to Amplats,” as Montalto adds: â€œin our view, this is only the beginning”.