Question

Some have argued that throwing darts at the stock pages to decide which companies to invest in could be a successful stock-picking strategy. Suppose a researcher decides to test this theory and randomly chooses 100 companies to invest in. After 1 year, 53 of the companies were considered winners; that is, they outperformed other companies in the same investment class. To assess whether the dart-picking strategy resulted in a majority of winners, the researcher tested H0: p = 0.5 versus H1: p > 0.5 and obtained a P-value of 0.2743. Explain what this P-value means and write a conclusion for the researcher.