How will the Raptors make the playoffs?

For the last couple seasons the Raptors have fell short of entering the post season. Bryan Colangelo and Dwane Casey are looking for change this upcoming season while entering the playoffs and making some noise. With how things are looking in Toronto, we could see the Raptors finally playing in the playoffs.

How will the Raptors make the playoffs?

1. Andrea Bargnani and Demar Derozan
If Bargnani stay healthy and gives us 22ppg with 6.5rpg, he will definitely bring our hopes up. All Derozan needs to do is expand his range, become a consistent 3point shooter, and attack the basket. If Derozan can do this and average 20ppg while ripping down 4rpg and dishing out 2apg, were looking at a team on the rise! Like the Thunder in the 2010 season, but letís not be too optimistic here.

2. Jonas Valunciunas, Terrence Ross, and Quincy Acy
JV has finally arrived with all the anticipated hype around him! During the pre-season he put up stellar numbers for a rookie, similar to D12 in his first campaign. He was doing all the dirty work, setting tough screens, ripping down rebounds, blocking shots, and showed some polish in his offensive game with a nasty sky hook. If JV can put up stellar numbers such as 12ppg, 10rpg, and 1bpg, he could very well be considered for the ROY award. He may not be the D12 we want him to be in his first season, but as time progresses we could see something even more dangerous than Howard.

The number 8th pick Ross, is consistent shooter with range and agility. He also brings some defensive skills which will be retooled by coach Casey. If Ross is our 6th man and ends up putting up numbers like James Harden we could be well on our way to a 8th seed playoff team. On the other side, there's 37th pick Quicy Acy. He's a better version of Reggie Evan, the former Raptor. Acy brings lots of defensive presence and a little range for a PF. If these two can become consistent players off the bench, we're going to have a well rounded bench who can match up with elite teams like the Lakers and Spurs.

3. Lowry, Fields, and JL3
Bringing in Kyle Lowry was first time in a long BC made a good trade. Lowry brings us stellar defensive skills with allstar calliber offensive skills. He can shoot the 3, hit clutch freethrows, and drive to the basket. Lowry also brings shut down defense which coach Casey favours. He should be averaging a near double-double; 18ppg and 8apg. Fields will be probably play the starting 3. He's an excellent rebounder with size and range. He will be able to spread the floor helping Lowry get a couple assists. All I need to say about JL3 is that he is instant offence, great addition by BC.

So if Andrea exceeds his best season in points (18) by over 20%, matches his best year in RB (6.5) and DeMar exceeds his best season PPG (15.7) by 27% and exceeds his career averages in RB and dimes, JV can put uo rookie of the year numbers, Ross matches the output of the 6th man of the year award winner, Lowry and exceed his best point average by 3 and almost double his best year assist number, and everybody else plays at their highest expected level, then the Raps can make the play-offs?

Hand me my crying towel Moma, and get out the salami and cheese. This party's over.

There's this crazy misnomer that scoring 20ppg is the be all, and end all. There aren't that many players in the NBA that can even score 20 ppg. Look at last year's Sixers. They made the playoffs. None of them scored 20+ppg. The idea that Bargs and Demar both need to score 20+ for us to make the playoffs is false. Also, on this team Demar has a very specific goal -- get the other team's wings in foul trouble. I could give a hoot if he's shooting threes. As a matter of fact, if he is shooting threes I cringe. I don't want to see him shoot beyond the midrange -- that's not his game. The unique spacing he creates disappears, and he forces bad shots.

Someone posted win more games than the 9th team, and though they may have been sarcastic that is the true answer. We have no clue how good/bad the East is going to be -- Bulls have no Rose, Knicks don't really have a point guard, Nets have the same front court, Orlando may not be as bad as earlier believed. That's how it is. That's basketball.

Well here's something to chew on. The last time we made the playoffs we had a winning record in preseason. In 06/07 and in 07/08. Hopefully with us having a winning record this preseason gives us the same reward as in the past.

Well here's something to chew on. The last time we made the playoffs we had a winning record in preseason. In 06/07 and in 07/08. Hopefully with us having a winning record this preseason gives us the same reward as in the past.

If you like superstition, here's something for you...

We always make the playoffs after a 4 year gap. 96-99, then playoffs for 3 years; 03-06, playoffs for 2 seasons... And the 4 year break til now... The trend = playoffs!

Lowry breaks out once again, especially likely being the way he continues to trend an improvement every season. Not to mention already a top 10 point guard in the league.

Derozan and Andrea are both effective offensively. Not necessarily scoring 20 points per game, but Andrea being able to stretch the floor, and not always settling. Mixing the game so to speak, and making himself assertive and forcing defenses to play him one way, or another.
Derozan continues his pre-season play and getting to the rim. Trying to score on contact, making the mid-range jumper he's developed, and continue to play hard in the post. Demar is significantly bigger, stronger, and more athletic than a lot of the two guards in the league.
Not to mention both guys play their ways defensively. Andrea being on the help-side, trying to grab rebounds. Demar continue to attack passing lanes, use your length and athleticism to get steals.

Rookies are playing to their strengths, not going outside of their games. Valanciunas is playing with some really good confidence recently, loving his spirit. Not to mention his knack for rebounding, and blocking shots.

Bench is effective led by Amir, Jose, and JL3.

Just some individuals being there and ready consistently for 82 games. If one guy isn't, there is a guy ready in the wings who is probable to do better. Team is deep, defensively and offensively equipped. Great chemistry. Now, it's all about putting it together.

Depending on how injuries play out I can see this team lucking into the 8th with one of those awesome sub .500 records, 38-40 wins.

I'm not expecting much from Ross, nothing from Acy, spot duty from LK/AG
7/7/1 from JV (but excellent play none the less, just not stats)
18/5.5 from AB
16/4 from DeMar (as a result of offensive boards by grabbing his own misses and playing mid to low post)
17/5/6/1s from KLow
8/6 from JC
7/3 from JL3
9/3 from LF
8/6 from ED
9/5 from Amir

That's a GENEROUS 98 ppg. If they can keep the D close to where it was last year that should be enough to keep us in the hunt for 8th with a roughly +4ppg differential.

Depending on how injuries play out I can see this team lucking into the 8th with one of those awesome sub .500 records, 38-40 wins.

I'm not expecting much from Ross, nothing from Acy, spot duty from LK/AG
7/7/1 from JV (but excellent play none the less, just not stats)
18/5.5 from AB
16/4 from DeMar (as a result of offensive boards by grabbing his own misses and playing mid to low post)
17/5/6/1s from KLow
8/6 from JC
7/3 from JL3
9/3 from LF
8/6 from ED
9/5 from Amir

That's a GENEROUS 98 ppg. If they can keep the D close to where it was last year that should be enough to keep us in the hunt for 8th with a roughly +4ppg differential.

how you figure that? Philly, Indy and ATL had between +3.3 and +4.2 pt diff and none of them had 53 wins. Philly had a +4.2 ppgd and finished 4 games over .500

Pythagorean predicted win percentage, using an exponent of 14. But honestly, since you don't seem to be able to pick out the glaringly obvious mathematical flaw in adding together player per-game scoring averages to get a team scoring average, I'm guessing you're not going to understand that.

you're very smart, oh so smart that you are using a formula that OBVIOUSLY predicted incorrectly BASED ON THE EVIDENCE. Look at past years and show me where a team that outscored it's opp. by 4 on average went on to a guaranteed 53 wins. Philly last year went +4.2 and only won 4 games more than they lost smart ass.

you're very smart, oh so smart that you are using a formula that OBVIOUSLY predicted incorrectly BASED ON THE EVIDENCE. Look at past years and show me where a team that outscored it's opp. by 4 on average went on to a guaranteed 53 wins. Philly last year went +4.2 and only won 4 games more than they lost smart ass.

Over the history of the NBA, pythagorean win percentage is correlated with actual win percentage 94.9%.

But since you seem to think that a single data point makes an argument, here are the teams from the past 5 years that had a point differential around 4.0 and their wins (last year's records adjusted for 82 games:

11-12
------
PHI +4.2 43.5
ATL +3.4 49.7
IND +3.3 52.1

10-11
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OKC +3.8 55
DAL +4.2 57

09-10
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DEN +4.1 53
BOS +3.7 50
POR +3.3 50
OKC +3.5 50

08-09
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DEN +3.4 54
SAS +3.8 54
HOU +4.0 53

And just to hammer home how wrong you are, let me just present this quote:

minks77 wrote:

...lucking into the 8th with one of those awesome sub .500 records, 38-40 wins.

...

...keep us in the hunt for 8th with a roughly +4ppg differential.

Yes folks, there is actually a person who thinks that an NBA team could manage to outscore its opponents by an average of 4 points per night and still manage to have a losing record.

Yes folks I've been shown up by a math nerd. I'll lower my rather flippant call for a +4ppg d down to a 21.5-2ppg d. There happy? as happy as your sticky paged copy of "Money Ball" makes you? You could of just pointed it out instead of being such a little dick about it when you threw out the 53 wins without any suggestion of how you came to that point. But, alas, here we are. You are obviously a genius and I a knuckle dragging pleeb, awaiting to do your bidding.