02447cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245020100090260006600291490004200357500001500399520092800414530006101342538007201403538003601475690008101511690008601592690008801678690016501766700003201931710004201963830007702005856003802082856003702120w18286NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aDafny, Leemore.10aDoes it Matter if Your Health Insurer is For-Profit? Effects of Ownership on Premiums, Insurance Coverage, and Medical Spendingh[electronic resource] /cLeemore Dafny, Subramaniam Ramanarayanan. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18286 aJuly 2012.3 aThe majority of private health insurance in the U.S. is administered or issued by for-profit insurers, but little is known about how for-profit status affects outcomes. We find that plausibly exogenous increases in local for-profit market share induced by conversions of Blue Cross and Blue Shield affiliates in 11 states (and 28 distinct geographic markets) had no significant impact on average premiums, uninsurance rates, or medical loss ratios. However, we do find significant increases in Medicaid enrollment and a reallocation of medical spending toward rivals of BCBS. Moreover, in markets where the converting BCBS affiliate had substantial market share, fully-insured premiums for employer plans increased significantly. The results suggest that the welfare effects of subsidies for new not-for-profit insurers, such as those in the Affordable Care Act, are likely to depend on entrants' eventual market share. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI13 - Health Insurance, Public and Private2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL22 - Firm Organization and Market Structure2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL33 - Comparison of Public and Private Enterprises and Nonprofit Institutions • Privatization • Contracting Out2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aRamanarayanan, Subramaniam.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18286.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1828641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1828602850cam a22003257 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245017400091260006600265490004200331500001500373520121400388530006101602538007201663538003601735690008801771690006601859690013701925690007802062690007802140690007802218700001602296700001802312710004202330830007702372856003802449856003702487w18264NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFrydman, Carola.10aEconomic Effects of Runs on Early 'Shadow Banks'h[electronic resource]:bTrust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907 /cCarola Frydman, Eric Hilt, Lily Y. Zhou. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18264 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use the unique circumstances that led to the Panic of 1907 to analyze its impact on economic activity. The panic was fuelled by runs on the 'shadow banks' of the time, New York's trust companies. But the shock that triggered the runs was unrelated to the nonfinancial corporations affiliated with those institutions. Using newly collected data, we find that small corporations with close ties to the trust companies that lost the most deposits experienced an immediate decline in their stock price of 10.4 percentage points, and performed worse in the years following the panic across a range of outcomes, including their return on equity, which fell 13.1 percent, their dividend rate, which fell 22 percent, and their average interest costs, which rose 8.3 percent, relative to mean pre-panic levels. The effect on their investment rate was much greater: it fell by nearly 50 percent. The relative decline in investment induced by affiliations with the worst-affected trust companies alone accounted for at least 18.4 percent of the total decline in corporate investment in the United States in 1908. This effect diminished in magnitude over time but persisted for at least five years following the panic. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG01 - Financial Crises2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG21 - Banks • Depository Institutions • Micro Finance Institutions • Mortgages2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN11 - U.S. • Canada: Pre-19132Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN21 - U.S. • Canada: Pre-19132Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN81 - U.S. • Canada: Pre-19132Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aHilt, Eric.1 aZhou, Lily Y.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18264.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1826441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1826402411cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245017500091260006600266490004200332500001500374520112500389530006101514538007201575538003601647690005601683690018501739700002701924710004201951830007701993856003802070856003702108w18263NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aHeider, Florian.10aAs Certain as Debt and Taxesh[electronic resource]:bEstimating the Tax Sensitivity of Leverage from Exogenous State Tax Changes /cFlorian Heider, Alexander Ljungqvist. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18263 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use a natural experiment in the form of 121 staggered changes in corporate income tax rates across U.S. states to show that tax considerations are a first-order determinant of firms' capital structure choices. Over the period 1990-2011, firms increase long-term leverage by 104 basis points on average (or $32.5 million in extra debt) in response to an average tax increase of 131 basis points. Contrary to static trade-off theory, the tax sensitivity of leverage is asymmetric: firms do not reduce leverage in response to tax cuts. Using treatment reversals, we find this to be true even within-firm: tax increases that are later reversed nonetheless lead to permanent increases in a firm's leverage - an unexpected and novel form of hysteresis. Our findings are robust to various confounds such as unobserved variation in local business conditions, union power, or unemployment risk. Treatment effects are heterogeneous and confirm the tax channel: tax sensitivity is greater among profitable and investment-grade firms which respectively have a greater marginal tax benefit and lower marginal cost of issuing debt. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aG0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG32 - Financing Policy • Financial Risk and Risk Management • Capital and Ownership Structure • Value of Firms • Goodwill2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aLjungqvist, Alexander.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18263.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1826341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1826302403cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245009200093260006600185490004200251500001500293520116400308530006101472538007201533538003601605690010501641690007201746690012501818710004201943830007701985856003802062856003702100w18262NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aPindyck, Robert S.10aRisk and Return in Environmental Economicsh[electronic resource] /cRobert S. Pindyck. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18262 aJuly 2012.3 aI examine the risk/return tradeoff for environmental investments, and its implications for policy choice. Consider a policy to reduce carbon emissions. To what extent does the value of such a policy depend on the expected future damages from global warming versus uncertainty over those damages, i.e., on the expected benefits from the policy versus their riskiness? And to what extent should the policy objective be a reduction in the expected temperature increase versus a reduction in risk? Using a simple model of a stock externality (e.g., temperature) that evolves stochastically, I examine the ``willingness to pay" (WTP) for alternative policies that would reduce the expected damages under ``business as usual" (BAU) versus the variance of those damages. I also show how one can compute ``iso-WTP" curves (social indifference curves) for combinations of risk and expected returns as policy objectives. Given cost estimates for reducing risk and increasing expected returns, one can compute the optimal risk-return mix for a policy, and the policy's social surplus. I illustrate these results by calibrating the model to data for global warming. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ5 - Environmental Economics2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18262.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1826241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1826202341cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001900070245020600089260006600295490004200361500001500403520093500418530006101353538007201414538003601486690009401522690011601616690008201732700002001814700002301834710004201857830007701899856003801976856003702014w18261NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBorghans, Lex.10aSocial Support Substitution and the Earnings Reboundh[electronic resource]:bEvidence from a Regression Discontinuity in Disability Insurance Reform /cLex Borghans, Anne C. Gielen, Erzo F.P. Luttmer. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18261 aJuly 2012.3 aIn this paper, we exploit a cohort discontinuity in the stringency of the 1993 Dutch disability reforms to obtain causal estimates of the effects of decreased generosity of disability insurance (DI) on behavior of existing DI recipients. We find evidence of substantial "social support substitution": individuals on average offset a euro of lost DI benefits by collecting 31 cents more from other social assistance programs. This benefit-substitution effect declines somewhat over time, but is still a significant 20% eight years later. Individuals also exhibit a strong rebound in earnings: labor earnings increase by 62 cents on average per euro of lost DI benefits. This is novel evidence of substantial remaining earnings capacity in a sample of long-term claimants of DI. On average, individuals make up for almost the entire DI benefit reduction through increases in other forms of social assistance and in labor earnings. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH53 - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI38 - Government Policy • Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aGielen, Anne C.1 aLuttmer, Erzo F.P.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18261.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1826141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1826102524cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001600070245016700086260006600253490004200319500001500361520115000376530006101526538007201587538003601659690005701695690007001752690009901822690006601921700001701987700002402004710004202028830007702070856003802147856003702185w18260NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFeng, Ling.14aThe Connection between Imported Intermediate Inputs and Exportsh[electronic resource]:bEvidence from Chinese Firms /cLing Feng, Zhiyuan Li, Deborah L. Swenson. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18260 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use data on Chinese manufacturing firms to study the connection between individual firm imports and firm export outcomes. Since our panel covers the years 2002 to 2006, we can use changes in import tariffs associated with China's WTO entry as instruments. Our regression results show that firms that expanded their intermediate input imports expanded the volume of their exports and increased their export scope, though the magnitude of the effects differed by import source, firm organizational form, and industry R&D intensity. On these dimensions, we find that imported intermediate inputs from OECD rather than non-OECD countries generated larger firm export improvements, that private Chinese firms derived larger benefits from imported inputs than did foreign invested firms, and that imported intermediates were especially helpful in expanding the exports of firms operating in high R&D intensity industries. Taken together, these results suggest that product upgrading facilitated by technology or quality embedded in imported inputs helped Chinese firms to increase the scale and breadth of their participation in export markets. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF10 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF15 - Economic Integration2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF23 - Multinational Firms • International Business2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF31 - Foreign Exchange2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aLi, Zhiyuan.1 aSwenson, Deborah L.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18260.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1826041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1826002504cam a22003137 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245013500093260006600228490004200294500001500336520095000351530006101301538007201362538003601434690008301470690008501553690013001638690010001768690007601868700002301944700002901967710004201996830007702038856003802115856003702153w18259NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aCaliendo, Lorenzo.14aThe Anatomy of French Production Hierarchiesh[electronic resource] /cLorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18259 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use a comprehensive dataset of French manufacturing firms to study their internal organization. We first divide the employees of each firm into `layers' using occupational categories. Layers are hierarchical in that the typical worker in a higher layer earns more, and the typical firm occupies less of them. In addition, the probability of adding (dropping) a layer is very positively (negatively) correlated with value added. We then explore the changes in the wages and number of employees that accompany expansions in layers, output, or markets (by becoming exporters). The empirical results indicate that reorganization, through changes in layers, is key to understand how firms expand and contract. For example, we find that firms that expand substantially add layers and pay lower average wages in all pre-existing layers. In contrast, firms that expand little and do not reorganize pay higher average wages in all pre-existing layers. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD22 - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF16 - Trade and Labor Market Interactions2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ31 - Wage Level and Structure • Wage Differentials2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL23 - Organization of Production2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aMonte, Ferdinando.1 aRossi-Hansberg, Esteban.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18259.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825902470cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245013900092260006600231490004200297500001500339520131900354530006101673538007201734538003601806690007601842690007001918700002201988710004202010830007702052856003802129856003702167w18258NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aHudomiet, Péter.10aEstimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Datah[electronic resource] /cPéter Hudomiet, Robert J. Willis. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18258 aJuly 2012.3 aBased on subjective survival probability questions in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we use an econometric model to estimate the determinants of individual-level uncertainty about personal longevity. This model is built around the Modal Response Hypothesis (MRH), a mathematical expression of the idea that survey responses of 0, 50 or 100 percent to probability questions indicate a high level of uncertainty about the relevant probability. We show that subjective survival expectations in 2002 line up very well with realized mortality of the HRS respondents between 2002 and 2010. We show that the MRH model performs better than typically used models in the literature of subjective probabilities. Our model gives more accurate estimates of low probability events and it is able to predict the unusually high fraction of focal 0, 50 and 100 answers observed in many datasets on subjective probabilities. We show that subjects place too much weight on parents' age at death when forming expectations about their own longevity, while other covariates such as demographics, cognition, personality, subjective health and health behavior are underweighted. We also find that less educated people, smokers and women have less certain beliefs; and recent health shocks increase uncertainty about survival, too. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC11 - Bayesian Analysis: General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ1 - Demographic Economics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWillis, Robert J.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18258.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825802644cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245010500091260006600196490004200262500001500304520141100319530006101730538007201791538003601863690013901899690012102038700002502159710004202184830007702226856003802303856003702341w18257NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAcemoglu, Daron.10aCycles of Distrusth[electronic resource]:bAn Economic Model /cDaron Acemoglu, Alexander Wolitzky. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18257 aJuly 2012.3 aWe propose a model of cycles of distrust and conflict. Overlapping generations of agents from two groups sequentially play coordination games under incomplete information about whether the other side consists of "extremists" who will never take the good/trusting action. Good actions may be mistakenly perceived as bad/distrusting actions. We also assume that there is limited information about the history of past actions, so that an agent is unable to ascertain exactly when and how a sequence of bad actions originated. Assuming that both sides are not extremists, spirals of distrust and conflict get started as a result of a misperception, and continue because the other side interprets the bad action as evidence that it is facing extremists. However, such spirals contain the seeds of their own dissolution: after a while, Bayesian agents correctly conclude that the probability of a spiral having started by mistake is sufficiently high, and bad actions are no longer interpreted as evidence of extremism. At this point, one party experiments with a good action, and the cycle restarts. We show how this mechanism can be useful in interpreting cycles of ethnic conflict and international war, and how it also emerges in models of political participation, dynamic inter-group trade, and communication - leading to cycles of political polarization, breakdown of trade, and breakdown of communication. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD74 - Conflict • Conflict Resolution • Alliances • Revolutions2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWolitzky, Alexander.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18257.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825701806cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245013100093260006600224490004200290500001500332520069500347530006101042538007201103538003601175690006601211690008101277710004201358830007701400856003801477856003701515w18256NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aLevich, Richard M.10aFX Counterparty Risk and Trading Activity in Currency Forward and Futures Marketsh[electronic resource] /cRichard M. Levich. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18256 aJuly 2012.3 aThe Global Financial Crisis initiated a period of market turbulence and increased counterparty risk for financial institutions. Even though the Dodd-Frank Act is likely to exempt interbank foreign exchange trading from a central counterparty mandate, market participants have the option to trade currency futures on existing futures markets which standardize counterparty risks. Evidence for the period 2005-11 indicates that the market share of currency futures trading has grown relative to the pre-crisis period. This shift may be the result of a perceived increase in counterparty risk among banks, as well as changes in relative trading costs or changes in other institutional factors. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF31 - Foreign Exchange2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG15 - International Financial Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18256.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825601825cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245013200092260006600224490004200290500001500332520067300347530006101020538007201081538003601153690006501189690008601254700002501340710004201365830007701407856003801484856003701522w18255NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aKaestner, Robert.10aDoes Seeing the Doctor More Often Keep You Out of the Hospital?h[electronic resource] /cRobert Kaestner, Anthony T. Lo Sasso. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18255 aJuly 2012.3 aBy exploiting a unique health insurance benefit design, we provide novel evidence on the causal association between outpatient and inpatient care. Our results indicate that greater outpatient spending was associated with more hospital admissions: a $100 increase in outpatient spending was associated with a 2.7% increase in the probability of having an inpatient event and a 4.6% increase in inpatient spending among enrollees in our sample. Moreover, we present evidence that the increase in hospital admissions associated with greater outpatient spending was for conditions in which it is plausible to argue that the physician and patient could exercise discretion. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI12 - Health Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI13 - Health Insurance, Public and Private2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aLo Sasso, Anthony T.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18255.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825502384cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245020800090260006600298490004200364500001500406520105900421530006101480538007201541538003601613690008601649690010601735700002101841700001801862700002001880710004201900830007701942856003802019856003702057w18254NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aCantor, Joel C.14aThe Role of Federal and State Dependent Coverage Eligibility Policies on the Health Insurance Status of Young Adultsh[electronic resource] /cJoel C. Cantor, Alan C. Monheit, Derek DeLia, Kristen Lloyd. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18254 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper evaluates one of the first implemented provisions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) which permits young adults up to age 26 to enroll as dependents on a parent's private health plan. The paper also considers how the interaction between prior state laws expanding dependent coverage to young adults and the ACA affected young adult coverage. Using data from the Current Population Survey for calendar years 2004-2010, we apply a difference-in-differences framework to estimate how these provisions affected coverage of eligible young adults compared to slightly older adults. Our findings indicate that controlling for state laws, early implementation of the ACA increased young adult dependent coverage by 5.3 percentage points and resulted in a 3.5 percentage point decline in their uninsured rate. The interaction between state laws and the ACA suggests that the increase in dependent coverage and decline in the uninsured rate may have been greater among young adults who were targeted by both the ACA and state laws. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI13 - Health Insurance, Public and Private2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aMonheit, Alan C.1 aDeLia, Derek.1 aLloyd, Kristen.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18254.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825402120cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245014700093260006600240490004200306500001500348520105400363530006101417538007201478538003601550690006501586700002101651710004201672830007701714856003801791856003701829w18253NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFletcher, Jason M.10aEstimating the Effects of Friendship Networks on Health Behaviors of Adolescentsh[electronic resource] /cJason M. Fletcher, Stephen L. Ross. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18253 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper estimates the effects of friends' health behaviors, smoking and drinking, on own health behaviors for adolescents while controlling for the effects of correlated unobservables between those friends. Specifically, the effect of friends' health behaviors is identified by comparing similar individuals who have the same friendship opportunities because they attend the same school and make similar friendship choices, under the assumption that the friendship choice reveals information about an individual's unobservables. We combine this identification strategy with a cross-cohort, within school design so that the model is identified based on across grade differences in the clustering of health behaviors within specific friendship patterns. Finally, we use the estimated information on correlated unobservables to examine longitudinal data on the on-set of health behaviors, where the opportunity for reverse causality should be minimal. Our estimates for both behavior and on-set are very robust to bias from correlated unobservables. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI12 - Health Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aRoss, Stephen L.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18253.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825302379cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245006600092260006600158490004200224500001500266520126000281530006101541538007201602538003601674690016601710690005501876710004201931830007701973856003802050856003702088w18252NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aNorton, Edward C.10aLog Odds and Endsh[electronic resource] /cEdward C. Norton. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18252 aJuly 2012.3 aAlthough independent unobserved heterogeneity--variables that affect the dependent variable but are independent from the other explanatory variables of interest--do not affect the point estimates or marginal effects in least squares regression, they do affect point estimates in nonlinear models such as logit and probit models. In these nonlinear models, independent unobserved heterogeneity changes the arbitrary normalization of the coefficients through the error variance. Therefore, any statistics derived from the estimated coefficients change when additional, seemingly irrelevant, variables are added to the model. Odds ratios must be interpreted as conditional on the data and model. There is no one odds ratio; each odds ratio estimated in a multivariate model is conditional on the data and model in a way that makes comparisons with other results difficult or impossible. This paper provides new Monte Carlo and graphical insights into why this is true, and new understanding of how to interpret fixed effects models, including case control studies. Marginal effects are largely unaffected by unobserved heterogeneity in both linear regression and nonlinear models, including logit and probit and their multinomial and ordered extensions. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models • Discrete Regressors • Proportions • Probabilities2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI19 - Other2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18252.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825202631cam a22003377 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245010900092260006600201490004200267500001500309520079800324530006101122538007201183538003601255690005801291690006701349690010801416690015901524690006601683690009401749690011201843690012701955700001702082710004202099830007702141856003802218856003702256w18251NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aVayanos, Dimitri.10aMarket Liquidity -- Theory and Empirical Evidenceh[electronic resource] /cDimitri Vayanos, Jiang Wang. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18251 aJuly 2012.3 aIn this paper we survey the theoretical and empirical literature on market liquidity. We organize both literatures around three basic questions: (a) how to measure illiquidity, (b) how illiquidity relates to underlying market imperfections and other asset characteristics, and (c) how illiquidity affects expected asset returns. Using a unified model from Vayanos and Wang (2010), we survey theoretical work on six main imperfections: participation costs, transaction costs, asymmetric information, imperfect competition, funding constraints, and search---and for each imperfection we address the three basic questions within that model. We review the empirical literature through the lens of the theory, using the theory to both interpret existing results and suggest new tests and analysis. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD42 - Monopoly2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD53 - Financial Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD82 - Asymmetric and Private Information • Mechanism Design2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD83 - Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief • Unawareness2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG01 - Financial Crises2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG11 - Portfolio Choice • Investment Decisions2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG12 - Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG14 - Information and Market Efficiency • Event Studies • Insider Trading2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWang, Jiang.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18251.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825103179cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245012800093260006600221490004200287500001500329520188600344530006102230538007202291538003602363690006602399690013202465690005702597700002302654700001802677710004202695830007702737856003802814856003702852w18250NBER20180319034631.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aDelgado, Mercedes.10aClusters, Convergence, and Economic Performanceh[electronic resource] /cMercedes Delgado, Michael E. Porter, Scott Stern. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18250 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper evaluates the role of regional cluster composition in the economic performance of industries, clusters and regions. On the one hand, diminishing returns to specialization in a location can result in a convergence effect: the growth rate of an industry within a region may be declining in the level of activity of that industry. At the same time, positive spillovers across complementary economic activities provide an impetus for agglomeration: the growth rate of an industry within a region may be increasing in the size and "strength" (i.e., relative presence) of related economic sectors. Building on Porter (1998, 2003), we develop a systematic empirical framework to identify the role of regional clusters - groups of closely related and complementary industries operating within a particular region - in regional economic performance. We exploit newly available data from the US Cluster Mapping Project to disentangle the impact of convergence at the region-industry level from agglomeration within clusters. We find that, after controlling for the impact of convergence at the narrowest unit of analysis, there is strong evidence for cluster-driven agglomeration. Industries participating in a strong cluster register higher employment growth as well as higher growth of wages, number of establishments, and patenting. Industry and cluster level growth also increases with the strength of related clusters in the region and with the strength of similar clusters in adjacent regions. Importantly, we find evidence that new regional industries emerge where there is a strong cluster environment. Our analysis also suggests that the presence of strong clusters in a region enhances growth opportunities in other industries and clusters. Overall, these findings highlight the important role of cluster-based agglomeration in regional economic performance. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aL26 - Entrepreneurship2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aR11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aR30 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPorter, Michael E.1 aStern, Scott.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18250.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1825041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1825002788cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245014300093260006600236490004200302500001500344520137200359530006101731538007201792538003601864690009601900690015601996690007602152700002302228700002302251700001802274710004202292830007702334856003802411856003702449w18249NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aDelgado, Mercedes.14aThe Determinants of National Competitivenessh[electronic resource] /cMercedes Delgado, Christian Ketels, Michael E. Porter, Scott Stern. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18249 aJuly 2012.3 aWe define foundational competitiveness as the expected level of output per working-age individual that is supported by the overall quality of a country as a place to do business. The focus on output per potential worker, a broader measure of national productivity than output per current worker, reflects the dual role of workforce participation and output per worker in determining a nation's standard of living. Our framework highlights three broad and interrelated drivers of foundational competitiveness: social infrastructure and political institutions, monetary and fiscal policy, and the microeconomic environment. We estimate this framework using multiple data sets covering more than 130 countries over the 2001-2008 period. We find a positive and separate influence of each driver on output per potential worker. The microeconomic environment has a positive effect on output per potential worker even after controlling for historical legacies. Using our framework we define a new concept, global investment attractiveness, which is the cost of factor inputs relative to a country's competitiveness. This analysis reveals important insight into the economic trajectory of individual countries. Our framework also offers a novel methodology for the estimation of a theoretically grounded and empirically validated measure of national competitiveness. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aO12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO47 - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth • Aggregate Productivity • Cross-Country Output Convergence2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO5 - Economywide Country Studies2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aKetels, Christian.1 aPorter, Michael E.1 aStern, Scott.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18249.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824902255cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245014300093260006600236490004200302500001500344520083200359530006101191538007201252538003601324690009801360690008801458690012201546690008101668700002201749710004201771830007701813856003801890856003701928w18248NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aHastings, Justine.10aMental Accounting and Consumer Choiceh[electronic resource]:bEvidence from Commodity Price Shocks /cJustine Hastings, Jesse M. Shapiro. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18248 aJuly 2012.3 aWe formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We evaluate the quantitative performance of a set of psychological models of decision-making in explaining the patterns we observe. We also use our findings to shed light on extant stylized facts about the time-series properties of retail markups in gasoline markets. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL15 - Information and Product Quality • Standardization and Compatibility2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ41 - Demand and Supply • Prices2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aShapiro, Jesse M.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18248.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824802095cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245012900091260006600220490004200286500001500328520054700343530006100890538007200951538003601023690007201059690006601131690012301197690011201320690008101432690008601513710004201599830007701641856003801718856003701756w18247NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aWest, Kenneth D.10aEconometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near Oneh[electronic resource] /cKenneth D. West. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18247 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper develops asymptotic econometric theory to help understand data generated by a present value model with a discount factor near one. A leading application is to exchange rate models. A key assumption of the asymptotic theory is that the discount factor approaches 1 as the sample size grows. The finite sample approximation implied by the asymptotic theory is quantitatively congruent with modest departures from random walk behavior with imprecise estimation of a well-studied regression relating spot and forward exchange rates. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC58 - Financial Econometrics2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF31 - Foreign Exchange2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF37 - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG12 - Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG15 - International Financial Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18247.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824702698cam a22003137 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245012900093260006600222490004200288500001500330520116400345530006101509538007201570538003601642690013301678690010301811690007601914690012501990700002402115700002302139700002802162710004202190830007702232856003802309856003702347w18246NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBernard, Andrew B.10aCarry-Along Tradeh[electronic resource] /cAndrew B. Bernard, Emily J. Blanchard, Ilke Van Beveren, Hylke Y. Vandenbussche. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18246 aJuly 2012.3 aLarge multi-product firms dominate international trade flows. This paper documents new facts about multi-product manufacturing exporters that are not easily reconciled with existing multi-product models. Using novel linked production and export data at the firm-product level, we find that the overwhelming majority of manufacturing firms export products that they do not produce. Three quarters of the exported products and thirty percent of export value from Belgian manufacturers are in goods that are not produced by the firm, so-called Carry-Along Trade (CAT). The number of CAT products is strongly increasing in firm productivity while the number of produced products that are exported is weakly increasing in firm productivity. We propose a general model of production and sourcing at multi-product firms. While the baseline model fails to reconcile the relationships between firm productivity and the numbers of exported products observed in the data, several demand and supply-side extensions to the model are more successful. Looking at export price data, we find support for a novel theoretical extension based on demand-scope complementarities. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies • Fragmentation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF13 - Trade Policy • International Trade Organizations2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF14 - Empirical Studies of Trade2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure • Size Distribution of Firms2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aBlanchard, Emily J.1 aVan Beveren, Ilke.1 aVandenbussche, Hylke Y.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18246.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824601868cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245014800091260006600239490004200305500001500347520067500362530006101037538007201098538003601170690009001206700002001296700002001316700002601336700002201362710004201384830007701426856003801503856003701541w18245NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBloom, Nicholas.10aReally Uncertain Business Cyclesh[electronic resource] /cNicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, Stephen J. Terry. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18245 aJuly 2012.3 aWe propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. We find that reasonably calibrated uncertainty shocks can explain drops and rebounds in GDP of around 3%. Moreover, we show that increased uncertainty alters the relative impact of government policies, making them initially less effective and then subsequently more effective. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aFloetotto, Max.1 aJaimovich, Nir.1 aSaporta-Eksten, Itay.1 aTerry, Stephen J.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18245.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824502166cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245007000093260006600163490004200229500001500271520087000286530006101156538007201217538003601289690005601325690008101381690013401462690009801596710004201694830007701736856003801813856003701851w18244NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aGlaeser, Edward L.10aUrban Public Financeh[electronic resource] /cEdward L. Glaeser. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18244 aJuly 2012.3 a America's local governments spend about one-eighth of our national income, one-fourth of total government spending, and employ over 14 million people. This paper surveys the large and growing economics literature on local governments and their finances. A primary difference between local and national government is the ease of labor mobility within countries, which disciplines local governments and means that heterogeneous service levels can be beneficial, but mobility also challenges local attempts at redistribution. The empirical literature on mobility responses to local government is distinguished, but remains a pressing area for future research. We have sophisticated models of local spending, tax policy and institutional design, but research is often far less developed on even basic questions of costs and benefits of core local public services. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH23 - Externalities • Redistributive Effects • Environmental Taxes and Subsidies2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH71 - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18244.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824401963cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245011100090260006600201490004200267500001500309520059100324530006100915538007200976538003601048690005701084690013301141690008801274690010001362700001701462710004201479830007701521856003801598856003701636w18243NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aChaney, Thomas.10aMarket Size, Division of Labor, and Firm Productivityh[electronic resource] /cThomas Chaney, Ralph Ossa. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18243 aJuly 2012.3 aWe generalize Krugman's (1979) 'new trade' model by allowing for an explicit production chain in which a range of tasks is performed sequentially by a number of specialized teams. We demonstrate that an increase in market size induces a deeper division of labor among these teams which leads to an increase in firm productivity. The paper can be thought of as a formalization of Smith's (1776) famous theorem that the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market. It also sheds light on how market size differences can limit the scope for international technology transfers. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF10 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF12 - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies • Fragmentation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL22 - Firm Organization and Market Structure2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL25 - Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aOssa, Ralph.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18243.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824302241cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245012600090260006600216490004200282500001500324520097000339530006101309538007201370538003601442690009801478690010801576690006301684700002201747710004201769830007701811856003801888856003701926w18242NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBaker, Malcolm.10aDividends as Reference Pointsh[electronic resource]:bA Behavioral Signaling Approach /cMalcolm Baker, Jeffrey Wurgler. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18242 aJuly 2012.3 aWe outline a dividend signaling approach in which rational managers signal firm strength to investors who are loss averse to reductions in dividends relative to the reference point set by prior dividends. Managers with strong but unobservable cash earnings separate themselves by paying high dividends but retain enough earnings to be likely not to fall short of the same level next period. The model is consistent with several features of the data, including equilibrium dividend policies similar to a Lintner partial-adjustment model; modal dividend changes of zero; stronger market reactions to dividend cuts than increases; relative infrequency and irregularity of repurchases versus dividends; and a core mechanism that does not center on public destruction of value, a notion that managers reject in surveys. Supportive new tests involve nominal levels and changes of dividends per share, announcement effects, and reference point currencies of ADR dividends. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD82 - Asymmetric and Private Information • Mechanism Design2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG35 - Payout Policy2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWurgler, Jeffrey.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18242.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824202475cam a22003497 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002400070245017900094260006600273490004200339500001500381520068300396530006101079538007201140538003601212690006701248690009801315690009001413690015901503690005601662690009401718690005901812700002101871700001901892700002001911710004201931830007701973856003802050856003702088w18241NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBursztyn, Leonardo.10aUnderstanding Peer Effects in Financial Decisionsh[electronic resource]:bEvidence from a Field Experiment /cLeonardo Bursztyn, Florian Ederer, Bruno Ferman, Noam Yuchtman. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18241 aJuly 2012.3 aUsing a high-stakes field experiment conducted with a financial brokerage, we implement a novel design to separately identify two channels of social influence in financial decisions, both widely studied theoretically. When someone purchases an asset, his peers may also want to purchase it, both because they learn from his choice ("social learning") and because his possession of the asset directly affects others' utility of owning the same asset ("social utility"). We find that both channels have statistically and economically significant effects on investment decisions. These results can help shed light on the mechanisms underlying herding behavior in financial markets. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC93 - Field Experiments2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD14 - Household Saving • Personal Finance2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD83 - Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief • Unawareness2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG11 - Portfolio Choice • Investment Decisions2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aM31 - Marketing2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aEderer, Florian.1 aFerman, Bruno.1 aYuchtman, Noam.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18241.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824101829cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245010800093260006600201490004200267500001500309520072900324530006101053538007201114538003601186690005401222690010501276710004201381830007701423856003801500856003701538w18240NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aJohnson, Robert C.10aTrade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovementh[electronic resource] /cRobert C. Johnson. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18240 aJuly 2012.3 aDoes input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multi-sector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade- comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (a) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (b) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (c) inputs are substitutable for primary factors. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF1 - Trade2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18240.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1824041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1824002137cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245014600090260006600236490004200302500001500344520097300359530006101332538007201393538003601465690006401501690009301565700001901658710004201677830007701719856003801796856003701834w18239NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAnwar, Shamena.10aTesting for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Processh[electronic resource]:bTheory and Evidence /cShamena Anwar, Hanming Fang. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18239 aJuly 2012.3 aWe develop a model of a Parole Board contemplating whether to grant parole release to a prisoner who has finished serving their minimum sentence. The model implies a simple outcome test for racial prejudice robust to the inframarginality problem. Our test involves running simple regressions of whether a prisoner recidivates on the exposure time to the risk of recidivism and its square, using only the sample of prisoners who are granted parole release strictly between their minimum and maximum sentences and separately by race. If the coefficient estimates on the exposure time term differ by race, then there is evidence of racial prejudice against the racial group with the smaller coefficient estimate. We implement our test for prejudice using data from Pennsylvania from January 1996 to December 31, 2001. Although we find racial differences in time served, we find no evidence for racial prejudice on the part of the Parole Board based on our outcome test. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aJ71 - Discrimination2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aK42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aFang, Hanming.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18239.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823902811cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245018600090260006600276490004200342500001500384520150700399530006101906538007201967538003602039690008102075690007502156690008502231700002302316710004202339830007702381856003802458856003702496w18238NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aDave, Dhaval M.14aThe Effect of an Increase in Autism Prevalence on the Demand for Auxiliary Healthcare Workersh[electronic resource]:bEvidence from California /cDhaval M. Dave, Jose M. Fernandez. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18238 aJuly 2012.3 aAutism is a developmental disorder characterized by impairments in social interaction, communication, and restricted or repetitive behaviors. This previously rare condition has dramatically increased in prevalence from 0.5 in 1000 children during the 1970s to 11.3 in 1000 children in 2008. Using data from the California Department of Developmental Services, we study how changes in the number of autism cases at each of the 21 regional development centers affected local wages and quantity of auxiliary health providers. We focus on this subset of health providers because, unlike physicians and psychologists who can diagnose autism, these workers cannot induce their own demand. If the incidence of autism is increasing independently of other mental disorders, then the demand for auxiliary health providers should increase, leading to higher wages and an increase in the number of these providers over time, else the increase in autism diagnosis is merely displacing other mental disorders. Using wages and provider counts from the American Community Survey, we find a 100% increase in the number of autism cases increases the wage of auxiliary health workers over non-autism health occupations by 8 to 11 percent and the number of providers by 7 to 15 percent the following year. Further, we find that four additional autism cases reduces the number of mild mental retardation cases by one, but is not found to have a statistically significant effect on the level of cerebral palsy or epilepsy. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ2 - Demand and Supply of Labor2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aFernandez, Jose M.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18238.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823802040cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002500070245018200095260006600277490004200343500001500385520081200400530006101212538007201273538003601345690013001381700002201511700001601533700001901549710004201568830007701610856003801687856003701725w18237NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFryer, Roland G, Jr.10aEnhancing the Efficacy of Teacher Incentives through Loss Aversionh[electronic resource]:bA Field Experiment /cRoland G. Fryer, Jr, Steven D. Levitt, John List, Sally Sadoff. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18237 aJuly 2012.3 aDomestic attempts to use financial incentives for teachers to increase student achievement have been ineffective. In this paper, we demonstrate that exploiting the power of loss aversion--teachers are paid in advance and asked to give back the money if their students do not improve sufficiently--increases math test scores between 0.201 (0.076) and 0.398 (0.129) standard deviations. This is equivalent to increasing teacher quality by more than one standard deviation. A second treatment arm, identical to the loss aversion treatment but implemented in the standard fashion, yields smaller and statistically insignificant results. This suggests it is loss aversion, rather than other features of the design or population sampled, that leads to the stark differences between our findings and past research. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aJ24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aLevitt, Steven D.1 aList, John.1 aSadoff, Sally.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18237.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823701909cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245011100093260006600204490004200270500001500312520073600327530006101063538007201124538003601196690005601232690005501288690007201343700002201415710004201437830007701479856003801556856003701594w18236NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aCruz, Juan Moreno.10aBack to the Future of Green Powered Economiesh[electronic resource] /cJuan Moreno Cruz, M. Scott Taylor. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18236 aJuly 2012.3 aThe purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of power density [Watts/m²] into economics. By introducing an explicit spatial structure into a simple general equilibrium model we are able to show how the power density of available energy resources determines the extent of energy exploitation, the density of urban agglomerations, and the peak level of income per capita. Using a simple Malthusian model to sort population across geographic space we demonstrate how the density of available energy supplies creates density in energy demands by agglomerating economic activity. We label this result the density-creates-density hypothesis and evaluate it using data from pre and post fossil-fuel England from 1086 to 1801. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aN0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ4 - Energy2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ5 - Environmental Economics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aTaylor, M. Scott.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18236.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823602384cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002600070245015300096260006600249490004200315500001500357520055500372520041900927530006101346538007201407538003601479690006501515690010601580690012301686690009101809710004201900830007701942856003802019856003702057w18235NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aLichtenberg, Frank R.10aPharmaceutical Innovation and Longevity Growth in 30 Developing and High-income Countries, 2000-2009h[electronic resource] /cFrank R. Lichtenberg. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18235 aJuly 2012.3 aI examine the impact of pharmaceutical innovation, as measured by the vintage (world launch year) of prescription drugs used, on longevity using longitudinal, country-level data on 30 developing and high-income countries during the period 2000-2009. I control for fixed country and year effects, real per capita income, the unemployment rate, mean years of schooling, the urbanization rate, real per capita health expenditure (public and private), the DPT immunization rate among children ages 12-23 months, HIV prevalence and tuberculosis incidence.3 aThe estimates indicate that life expectancy at all ages and survival rates above age 25 increased faster in countries with larger increases in drug vintage (measured in three different ways), ceteris paribus, and that the increase in life expectancy at birth due to the increase in the fraction of drugs consumed that were launched after 1990 was 1.27 years--73% of the actual increase in life expectancy at birth. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI12 - Health Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO33 - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences • Diffusion Processes2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18235.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823502146cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245016400093260006600257490004200323500001500365520076600380530006101146538007201207538003601279690012501315690010001440690007601540700002201616700002401638710004201662830007701704856003801781856003701819w18234NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aGentzkow, Matthew.10aCompetition and Ideological Diversityh[electronic resource]:bHistorical Evidence from US Newspapers /cMatthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Michael Sinkinson. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18234 aJuly 2012.3 aWe study the competitive forces that shaped ideological diversity in the US press in the early twentieth century. We find that households preferred like-minded news and that newspapers used their political orientation to differentiate from competitors. We formulate a model of newspaper demand, entry, and political affiliation choice in which newspapers compete for both readers and advertisers. We use a combination of estimation and calibration to identify the model's parameters from novel data on newspaper circulation, costs, and revenues. The estimated model implies that competition enhances ideological diversity, that the market undersupplies diversity, and that optimal competition policy requires accounting for the two-sidedness of the news market. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aL11 - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure • Size Distribution of Firms2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL52 - Industrial Policy • Sectoral Planning Methods2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL82 - Entertainment • Media2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aShapiro, Jesse M.1 aSinkinson, Michael.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18234.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823402206cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100003500070245022200105260006600327490004200393500001500435520095600450530006101406538007201467538003601539690005501575700001801630700001901648700003201667700002301699710004201722830007701764856003801841856003701879w18233NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aÁsgeirsdóttir, Tinna Laufey.10aAre Recessions Good for Your Health Behaviors? Impacts of the Economic Crisis in Icelandh[electronic resource] /cTinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Þórhildur Ólafsdóttir, Nancy E. Reichman. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18233 aJuly 2012.3 aThis study exploits the October 2008 economic crisis in Iceland to identify the effects of a macroeconomic downturn on a range of health behaviors. Using longitudinal survey data that include pre- and post- reports from the same individuals, we investigate the effects of the crisis on smoking, heavy drinking, dietary behaviors, sleep, and other health behaviors and investigate changes in work hours, real income, wealth, and mental health as potential mediators. We also consider the role of prices in shaping health behaviors and compute participation elasticities for the various behaviors. We find that the crisis led to reductions in all health-compromising behaviors examined and that it led to reductions in certain health-promoting behaviors but increases in others. The individual-level mediators explained some, but not all of the effects. We infer that price increases played a large role in the effects of the crisis on health behaviors. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI1 - Health2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aCorman, Hope.1 aNoonan, Kelly.1 aÓlafsdóttir, Þórhildur.1 aReichman, Nancy E.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18233.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823303008cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001700070245017400087260006600261490004200327500001500369520180700384530006102191538007202252538003602324690007502360690005902435700002202494700002002516710004202536830007702578856003802655856003702693w18232NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aChetty, Raj.10aUsing Differences in Knowledge Across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts of the EITC on Earningsh[electronic resource] /cRaj Chetty, John N. Friedman, Emmanuel Saez. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18232 aJuly 2012.3 aWe develop a new method of estimating the impacts of tax policies that uses areas with little knowledge about the policy's marginal incentives as counterfactuals for behavior in the absence of the policy. We apply this method to characterize the impacts of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) on earnings using administrative tax records covering all EITC-eligible filers from 1996-2009. We begin by developing a proxy for local knowledge about the EITC schedule -the degree of "sharp bunching"at the exact income level that maximizes EITC refunds by individuals who report self-employment income. The degree of self-employed sharp bunching varies significantly across geographical areas in a manner consistent with differences in knowledge. For instance, individuals who move to higher-bunching areas start to report incomes closer to the refund-maximizing level themselves, while those who move to lower-bunching areas do not. Using this proxy for knowledge, we compare W-2 wage earnings distributions across neighborhoods to uncover the impact of the EITC on real earnings. Areas with high self-employed sharp bunching (i.e., high knowledge) exhibit more mass in their W-2 wage earnings distributions around the EITC plateau. Using a quasi-experimental design that accounts for unobservable differences across neighborhoods, we find that changes in EITC incentives triggered by the birth of a child lead to larger wage earnings responses in higher bunching neighborhoods. The increase in EITC refunds comes primarily from intensive-margin increases in earnings in the phase-in region rather than reductions in earnings in the phase-out region. The increase in EITC refunds is commensurate to a phase-in earnings elasticity of 0.21 on average across the U.S. and 0.58 in high-knowledge neighborhoods. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH26 - Tax Evasion and Avoidance2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH31 - Household2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aFriedman, John N.1 aSaez, Emmanuel.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18232.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823202086cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002500070245015500095260006600250490004200316500001500358520070900373530006101082538007201143538003601215690008001251690011201331690012701443700001801570700001401588710004201602830007701644856003801721856003701759w18231NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aStambaugh, Robert F.14aThe Long of Ith[electronic resource]:bOdds that Investor Sentiment Spuriously Predicts Anomaly Returns /cRobert F. Stambaugh, Jianfeng Yu, Yu Yuan. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18231 aJuly 2012.3 aExtremely long odds accompany the chance that spurious-regression bias accounts for investor sentiment's observed role in stock-return anomalies. We replace investor sentiment with a simulated persistent series in regressions reported by Stambaugh, Yu and Yuan (2012), who find higher long-short anomaly profits following high sentiment, due entirely to the short leg. Among 200 million simulated regressors, we find none that support those conclusions as strongly as investor sentiment. The key is consistency across anomalies. Obtaining just the predicted signs for the regression coefficients across the 11 anomalies examined in the above study occurs only once for every 43 simulated regressors. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC18 - Methodological Issues: General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG12 - Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG14 - Information and Market Efficiency • Event Studies • Insider Trading2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aYu, Jianfeng.1 aYuan, Yu.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18231.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823102523cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245013400092260006600226490004200292500001500334520108500349530006101434538007201495538003601567690012301603690010501726690005701831690012501888700002602013710004202039830007702081856003802158856003702196w18230NBER20180319034632.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aLemoine, Derek M.10aTipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Changeh[electronic resource] /cDerek M. Lemoine, Christian P. Traeger. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18230 aJuly 2012.3 aWe model welfare-maximizing policy in an infinite-horizon setting when the probability of a tipping point, the welfare change due to a tipping point, and knowledge about a tipping point's trigger all depend on the policy path. Analytic results demonstrate how optimal policy depends on the ability to affect both the probability of a tipping point and also welfare in a post-threshold world. Simulations with a numerical climate-economy model show that possible tipping points in the climate system increase the optimal near-term carbon tax by up to 45% in base case specifications. The resulting policy paths lower peak warming by up to 0.5°C compared to a model without possible tipping points. Different types of tipping points have qualitatively different effects on policy, demonstrating the importance of explicitly modeling tipping points' effects on system dynamics. Aversion to ambiguity in the threshold's distribution can amplify or dampen the effect of tipping points on optimal policy, but in our numerical model, ambiguity aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC61 - Optimization Techniques • Programming Models • Dynamic Analysis2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD90 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aTraeger, Christian P.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18230.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1823041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1823002378cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245016000093260006600253490004200319500001500361520111800376530006101494538007201555538003601627690014901663690008701812700001901899710004201918830007701960856003802037856003702075w18229NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aMilligan, Kevin S.10aHealth and Work at Older Agesh[electronic resource]:bUsing Mortality to Assess the Capacity to Work across Countries /cKevin S. Milligan, David A. Wise. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18229 aJuly 2012.3 aHealth and longevity have increased substantially over the last 50 years, yet the labor force participation of older men has declined in most developed countries. We use mortality as a measure of health to assess the capacity to work at older ages in 12 OECD countries. For a given level of mortality, the employment rates of older workers vary substantially across countries and over time within countries. At each mortality rate in 2007, if American men between the ages of 55 and 69 had worked as much as American men in 1977 they would have worked an additional 3.7 years between ages 55 and 69. That is, men in this age range in 2007 would have had to work 46.8 percent more to work as much as men with the same mortality worked thirty years earlier in 1977. Comparing across countries, at each mortality rate in 2007, to match the work of American men, French men for example would have to work 4.6 years more between the ages 55 to 69 than they actually did work. We also find that there is little relationship across countries between mortality improvements and the change in employment at older ages. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aJ14 - Economics of the Elderly • Economics of the Handicapped • Non-Labor Market Discrimination2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ26 - Retirement • Retirement Policies2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWise, David A.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18229.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822902531cam a22003257 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245010600093260006600199490004200265500001500307520082300322530006101145538007201206538003601278690008701314690005701401690012901458690013101587690008101718690008501799690010501884700002201989710004202011830007702053856003802130856003702168w18228NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aRothschild, Casey.10aRedistributive Taxation in the Roy Modelh[electronic resource] /cCasey Rothschild, Florian Scheuer. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18228 aJuly 2012.3 aWe consider optimal redistribution in a model where individuals can self-select into one of several possible sectors based on heterogeneity in a multidimensional skill vector. We first show that when the government does not observe the sectoral choice or underlying skills of its citizens, the constrained Pareto frontier can be implemented with a single non-linear income tax. We then characterize this optimal tax schedule. If sectoral inputs are complements, a many-sector model with self-selection leads to optimal income taxes that are less progressive than the corresponding taxes in a standard single-sector model under natural conditions. However, they are more progressive than in canonical multi-sector economies with discrete types and without occupational choice or overlapping sectoral wage distributions. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD80 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE2 - Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ3 - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ6 - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aScheuer, Florian.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18228.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822802395cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245014000091260006600231490004200297500001500339520120100354530006101555538007201616538003601688690007501724690005501799690008101854710004201935830007701977856003802054856003702092w18227NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aEdwards, Ryan D.10aOverseas Deployment, Combat Exposure, and Well-Being in the 2010 National Survey of Veteransh[electronic resource] /cRyan D. Edwards. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18227 aJuly 2012.3 aRecent military engagements in Iraq (OIF) and Afghanistan (OEF) raise questions about the effects on service members of overseas deployment, which can include service in a combat or war zone, exposure to casualties, or both. The 2010 National Survey of Veterans, which asked a broad cross section of living veteran cohorts about deployment to OEF/OIF and combat exposure, provides some new insights into short and long-term relationships between characteristics of military service and outcomes. Analysis of these data suggests that the impacts of deployment and combat on the current socioeconomic well-being of returning OEF/OIF veterans may be relatively small, but the effects of combat exposure on self-reported health and other nonpecuniary indicators of their well-being appear to be negative. Among older veteran cohorts, where there is clearer sorting into treatment and control groups because of strong variation in combat exposure by year of birth, patterns are broadly similar. These results are consistent with a veterans compensation system that replaces lost earnings but does not necessarily compensate for other harms associated with combat exposure such as mental health trauma. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH56 - National Security and War2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI1 - Health2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN42 - U.S. • Canada: 1913–2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18227.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822701922cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245013300092260006600225490004200291500001500333520077100348530006101119538007201180538003601252690005701288690012901345710004201474830007701516856003801593856003701631w18226NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aWilson, Nicholas.10aPrevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambiah[electronic resource] /cNicholas Wilson. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18226 aJuly 2012.3 aPrevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) is the single most effective HIV prevention intervention in practice today. Nonetheless, little reliable empirical evidence exists on the behavioral effects of PMTCT. This paper documents the rapid expansion of access to PMTCT in Zambia during the period 2000-2007 and provides some of the first evidence on the change in reproductive behavior associated with PMTCT scale-up. The results of a primarily descriptive analysis suggest that PMTCT may have generated increases in knowledge about PMTCT and MTCT, large reductions in child mortality and pregnancy rates, and smaller changes in breastfeeding rates. However, additional research is required to address the potential endogeneity of PMTCT availability. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI10 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ13 - Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18226.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822602111cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245016900091260006600260490004200326500001500368520071300383530006101096538007201157538003601229690010101265690005701366690009501423690005701518700002101575700001901596710004201615830007701657856003801734856003701772w18225NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAshraf, Quamrul.10aHow Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performanceh[electronic resource]:bAn Agent-Based Computational Investigation /cQuamrul Ashraf, Boris Gershman, Peter Howitt. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18225 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use an agent-based computational approach to show how inflation can worsen macroeconomic performance by disrupting the mechanism of exchange in a decentralized market economy. We find that increasing the trend rate of inflation above 3 percent has a substantial deleterious effect, but lowering it below 3 percent has no significant macroeconomic consequences. Our finding remains qualitatively robust to changes in parameter values and to modifications to our model that partly address the Lucas critique. Finally, we contribute a novel explanation for why cross-country regressions may fail to detect a significant negative effect of trend inflation on output even when such an effect exists in reality. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE00 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE50 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aGershman, Boris.1 aHowitt, Peter.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18225.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822502228cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002800070245014200098260006600240490004200306500001500348520083100363530006101194538007201255538003601327690007101363690009101434690007301525690012201598700002401720710004201744830007701786856003801863856003701901w18224NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aMichalopoulos, Stelios.10aPre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Developmenth[electronic resource] /cStelios Michalopoulos, Elias Papaioannou. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18224 aJuly 2012.3 aWe investigate the role of deeply-rooted pre-colonial ethnic institutions in shaping comparative regional development within African countries. We combine information on the spatial distribution of ethnicities before colonization with regional variation in contemporary economic performance, as proxied by satellite images of light density at night. We document a strong association between pre-colonial ethnic political centralization and regional development. This pattern is not driven by differences in local geographic features or by other observable ethnic-specific cultural and economic variables. The strong positive association between pre-colonial political complexity and contemporary development obtains also within pairs of adjacent ethnic homelands with different legacies of pre-colonial political institutions. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aN17 - Africa • Oceania2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO43 - Institutions and Growth2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aZ1 - Cultural Economics • Economic Sociology • Economic Anthropology2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPapaioannou, Elias.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18224.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822401607cam a22002537 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100003100070245015400101260006600255490004200321500001500363520051500378530006100893538007200954538003601026690007701062700002001139710004201159830007701201856003801278856003701316w18223NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aSchmitt-Grohé, Stephanie.10aPegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemploymenth[electronic resource]:bThe Role of Financial Structure /cStephanie Schmitt-Grohé, Martín Uribe. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18223 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper studies the relationship between financial structure and the welfare consequences of fixed exchange rate regimes in small open emerging economies with downward nominal wage rigidity. The paper presents two surprising results. First, a pegging economy might be better off with a closed than with an open capital account. Second, the welfare gain from switching from a peg to the optimal (full-employment) monetary policy might be larger in financially open economies than in financially closed ones. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aUribe, Martín.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18223.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822301980cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245012100090260006600211490004200277500001500319520072600334530006101060538007201121538003601193690011001229690012701339700002101466700002101487710004201508830007701550856003801627856003701665w18222NBER20180319034633.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aSnowberg, Erik.10aPrediction Markets for Economic Forecastingh[electronic resource] /cErik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18222 aJuly 2012.3 aPrediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG14 - Information and Market Efficiency • Event Studies • Insider Trading2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aWolfers, Justin.1 aZitzewitz, Eric.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18222.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822201994cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002800070245015800098260006600256490004200322500001500364520067300379530006101052538007201113538003601185690005401221690010501275690008001380700002301460700002701483710004201510830007701552856003801629856003701667w18221NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBénétrix, Agustín S.14aThe Spread of Manufacturing to the Poor Periphery 1870---2007h[electronic resource] /cAgustín S. Bénétrix, Kevin H. O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18221 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper documents industrial output growth around the poor periphery (Latin America, the European periphery, the Middle East and North Africa, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa) between 1870 and 2007. We find that although the roots of rapid peripheral industrialization stretch into the late 19th century, the high point of peripheral industrialization was the 1950-1973 period, which saw widespread import- substituting industrialization. This period was also the high point of unconditional industrial catching up, defined as the tendency of less industrialized countries to post higher per capita manufacturing growth rates, and which occurred between 1920 and 1990. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF1 - Trade2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aN7 - Transport, Trade, Energy, Technology, and Other Services2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO2 - Development Planning and Policy2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aO'Rourke, Kevin H.1 aWilliamson, Jeffrey G.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18221.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822102373cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002500070245013200095260006600227490004200293500001500335520080600350530006101156538007201217538003601289690009001325690014401415690014101559690005901700690013001759710004201889830007701931856003802008856003702046w18220NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aMadrian, Brigitte C.10aMatching Contributions and Savings Outcomesh[electronic resource]:bA Behavioral Economics Perspective /cBrigitte C. Madrian. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18220 aJuly 2012.3 aIncluding a matching contribution increases savings plan participation and contributions, although the impact is less significant than the impact of nonfinancial approaches. Conditional on participation, a higher match rate has only a small effect on savings plan contributions. In contrast, the match threshold has a substantial impact, probably because it serves as a natural reference point when individuals are deciding how much to save and may be viewed as advice from the savings program sponsor on how much to save. Other behavioral approaches to changing savings plan outcomes--including automatic enrollment, simplification, planning aids, reminders, and commitment features--potentially have a much greater impact on savings outcomes than do financial incentives, often at a much lower cost. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD14 - Household Saving • Personal Finance2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD91 - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG23 - Non-bank Financial Institutions • Financial Instruments • Institutional Investors2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH31 - Household2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ32 - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits • Retirement Plans • Private Pensions2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18220.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1822041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1822003356cam a22003377 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002400070245016600094260006600260490004200326500001500368520155400383530006101937538007201998538003602070690016302106690008202269690007002351690006602421690011202487690010202599690007702701700002602778700002002804710004202824830007702866856003802943856003702981w18219NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aCalvo, Guillermo A.10aOptimal Holdings of International Reservesh[electronic resource]:bSelf-Insurance against Sudden Stop /cGuillermo A. Calvo, Alejandro Izquierdo, Rudy Loo-Kung. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18219 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper addresses the issue of the optimal stock of international reserves in terms of a statistical model in which reserves affect both the probability of a Sudden Stop-as well as associated output costs-by reducing the balance-sheet effects of liability dollarization. Optimal reserves are derived under the assumption that central bankers conservatively choose reserves by balancing the expected cost of a Sudden Stop against the opportunity cost of holding reserves. Results are obtained without using calibration to match observed reserves levels, providing no a priori reason for our concept of optimal reserves to be in line with observed holdings. Remarkably, however, observed reserves on the eve of the global financial crisis were-on average-not distant from optimal reserves as derived in this model, indicating that reserve over-accumulation in Emerging Markets was not obvious. However, heterogeneity prevailed across regions: from a precautionary standpoint, Latin America was closest to model-based optimal levels, while reserves in Eastern Europe lay below optimal levels, and those in Asia lay above. Nonetheless, there are other motives for reserve accumulation: we find that differences between observed reserves and precautionary-motive optimal reserves are partly explained by the perceived presence of a lender of last resort, or characteristics such as being a large oil producer. However, to a first approximation, there is no clear evidence supporting the so-called neo-mercantilist motive for reserve accumulation. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE42 - Monetary Systems • Standards • Regimes • Government and the Monetary System • Payment Systems2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE58 - Central Banks and Their Policies2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF15 - Economic Integration2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF31 - Foreign Exchange2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF33 - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aIzquierdo, Alejandro.1 aLoo-Kung, Rudy.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18219.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821902083cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001800070245009400088260006600182490004200248500001500290520061200305530006100917538007200978538003601050690008301086690020501169690009801374690010701472700002001579710004201599830007701641856003801718856003701756w18218NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aKrusell, Per.10aUnions in a Frictional Labor Marketh[electronic resource] /cPer Krusell, Leena Rudanko. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18218 aJuly 2012.3 aA labor market with search and matching frictions, where wage setting is controlled by a monopoly union that follows a norm of wage solidarity, is found vulnerable to substantial distortions associated with holdup. With full commitment to future wages, the union achieves efficient hiring in the long run, but hikes up wages in the short run to appropriate rents from firms. Without commitment, in a Markov-perfect equilibrium, hiring is too low both in the short and the long run. The quantitative impact is demonstrated in an extended model with partial union coverage and multi- period union contracting. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE02 - Institutions and the Macroeconomy2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE24 - Employment • Unemployment • Wages • Intergenerational Income Distribution • Aggregate Human Capital • Aggregate Labor Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ51 - Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aRudanko, Leena.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18218.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821801950cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001600070245008500086260006600171490004200237500001500279520066000294530006100954538007201015538003601087690011701123690008501240690013301325700002001458710004201478830007701520856003801597856003701635w18217NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aHe, Zhiguo.10aInefficient Investment Wavesh[electronic resource] /cZhiguo He, Péter Kondor. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18217 aJuly 2012.3 aWe develop a dynamic model of trading and investment with limited aggregate resources to study investment cycles. Unverifiable idiosyncratic investment opportunities imply market prices to play a role of rent distribution, distorting private investment incentives from a social point of view. This distortion is price-dependent, leading to two-sided inefficient investment cycles--too much investment in booms with high prices and too little in recessions with low prices. Interventions targeting only the underinvestment in recessions might make all agents worse off. We connect our results to both industry specific and aggregate boom-and-bust patterns. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE22 - Investment • Capital • Intangible Capital • Capacity2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE61 - Policy Objectives • Policy Designs and Consistency • Policy Coordination2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aKondor, Péter.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18217.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821702326cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245010300093260006600196490004200262500001500304520103400319530006101353538007201414538003601486690005501522690006501577690008201642690013001724710004201854830007701896856003801973856003702011w18216NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aFletcher, Jason M.10aAdolescent Depression and Adult Labor Market Outcomesh[electronic resource] /cJason M. Fletcher. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18216 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper uses recently released data from a national longitudinal sample to present new evidence of the longer term effects of adolescent depression on labor market outcomes. Results suggest reductions in labor force attachment of approximately 5 percentage points and earnings reductions of approximately 20% for individuals with depressive symptoms as an adolescent. These effects are only partially reduced when controlling for channels operating through educational attainment, adult depressive symptoms, or co-occurring illnesses. Further, the unique structure of the data allows for high-school fixed effects as well as suggestive evidence using sibling comparisons, which allows controls for potentially important unobserved heterogeneity. Overall, the results suggest that the links between adolescent depression and labor market outcomes are quite robust and important in magnitude, suggesting that there may be substantial labor market returns to further investments in treatment opportunities during adolescence. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aI1 - Health2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI12 - Health Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ24 - Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18216.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821602127cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002500070245013800095260006600233490004200299500001500341520070600356530006101062538007201123538003601195690012301231690009901354690010101453690010101554710004201655830007701697856003801774856003701812w18215NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aMcCallum, Bennett T.10aDeterminacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Modelsh[electronic resource] /cBennett T. McCallum. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18215 aJuly 2012.3 aRecent mainstream monetary policy analysis focuses on rational expectation solutions that are uniquely stable. A number of recent studies have examined the question of whether typical New Keynesian (NK) models, with policy rules that satisfy the Taylor principle, also exhibit solutions with explosive inflation that cannot be ruled out by any transversality condition or any other generally accepted economic principle. This paper contributes to that debate by supporting and developing previous arguments suggesting that such explosive solutions are informationally infeasible. It also critiques prevailing notions of "determinancy" and outlines two alternative approaches to solution selection. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC61 - Optimization Techniques • Programming Models • Dynamic Analysis2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aC62 - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE47 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18215.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821502019cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002400070245012400094260006600218490004200284500001500326520072900341530006101070538007201131538003601203690007101239690009001310690012501400700002201525710004201547830007701589856003801666856003701704w18214NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBranstetter, Lee G.10aFacing the Climate Change Challenge in a Global Economyh[electronic resource] /cLee G. Branstetter, William A. Pizer. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18214 aJuly 2012.3 aOver the past two decades, the international community has struggled to deal constructively with the problem of mitigating climate change. This is considered by many to be the preeminent public policy challenge of our time, but actual policy responses have been relatively modest. This essay provides an abbreviated narrative history of international policy in this domain, with a special emphasis on aspects of the problem, proposed solutions, and unresolved issues that are of interest to international economists and informed observers of the global economic system. We also discuss the potential conflict that could emerge between free trade principles on the one hand and environmental policy objectives on the other. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF18 - Trade and Environment2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF55 - International Institutional Arrangements2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPizer, William A.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18214.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821401974cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245013900091260006600230490004200296500001500338520075200353530006101105538007201166538003601238690009501274690008501369700002601454700002201480710004201502830007701544856003801621856003701659w18213NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aGagnon, Etienne.10aIndividual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Marginh[electronic resource] /cEtienne Gagnon, David López-Salido, Nicolas Vincent. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18213 aJuly 2012.3 aFirms employ a rich variety of pricing strategies whose implications for aggregate price dynamics often diverge. This situation poses a challenge for macroeconomists interested in bridging micro and macro price stickiness. In responding to this challenge, we note that differences in macro price stickiness across pricing mechanisms can often be traced back to price changes that are either triggered or cancelled by shocks. We exploit observed micro price behavior to quantify the importance of this margin of adjustment for the response of inflation to shocks. Across a range of empirical exercises, we find strong evidence that changes in the timing of price adjustments contribute significantly to the flexibility of the aggregate price level. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE31 - Price Level • Inflation • Deflation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aLópez-Salido, David.1 aVincent, Nicolas.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18213.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821302217cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245014400091260006600235490004200301500001500343520067800358530006101036538007201097538003601169690005701205690018501262690007901447690010701526690006801633700002001701710004201721830007701763856003801840856003701878w18208NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBrown, Jennifer.10aBoarding a Sinking Ship? An Investigation of Job Applications to Distressed Firmsh[electronic resource] /cJennifer Brown, David A. Matsa. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18208 aJuly 2012.3 aWe use novel data from a leading online job search platform to examine the impact of corporate distress on firms' ability to attract job applicants. Survey responses suggest that job seekers accurately perceive firms' financial condition, as measured by companies' credit default swap prices and accounting data. Analyzing responses to job postings by major financial firms during the Great Recession, we find that an increase in an employer's distress results in fewer and lower quality applicants. These effects are particularly evident when the social safety net provides workers with weak protection against unemployment and for positions requiring a college education. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aG20 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG32 - Financing Policy • Financial Risk and Risk Management • Capital and Ownership Structure • Value of Firms • Goodwill2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG33 - Bankruptcy • Liquidation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ64 - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aM5 - Personnel Economics2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aMatsa, David A.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18208.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820841uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820802233cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002100070245014300091260006600234490004200300500001500342520082900357530006101186538007201247538003601319690009801355690008801453690013401541700001901675700001901694700002401713710004201737830007701779856003801856856003701894w18212NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aBusse, Meghan R.10aProjection Bias in the Car and Housing Marketsh[electronic resource] /cMeghan R. Busse, Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope, Jorge Silva-Risso. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18212 aJuly 2012.3 aProjection bias is the tendency to overpredict the degree to which one's future tastes will resemble one's current tastes. We test for evidence of projection bias in two of the largest and most important consumer markets - the car and housing markets. Using data for more than forty million vehicle transactions and four million housing purchases, we explore the impact of the weather on purchasing decisions. We find that the choice to purchase a convertible, a 4-wheel drive, or a vehicle that is black in color is highly dependent on the weather at the time of purchase in a way that is inconsistent with classical utility theory. Similarly, we find that the hedonic value that a swimming pool and that central air add to a house is higher when the house goes under contract in the summertime compared to the wintertime. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL62 - Automobiles • Other Transportation Equipment • Related Parts and Equipment2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPope, Devin G.1 aPope, Jaren C.1 aSilva-Risso, Jorge.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18212.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821202651cam a22003017 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002400070245015600094260006600250490004200316500001500358520110900373530006101482538007201543538003601615690012701651690012601778690009801904690010802002700002602110700001902136710004202155830007702197856003802274856003702312w18211NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aMalmendier, Ulrike.10aTarget Revaluation after Failed Takeover Attempts – Cash versus Stockh[electronic resource] /cUlrike Malmendier, Marcus Matthias Opp, Farzad Saidi. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18211 aJuly 2012.3 aCash- and stock-financed takeover bids induce strikingly different target revaluations. We exploit detailed data on unsuccessful takeover bids between 1980 and 2008, and show that targets of cash offers are revalued on average by +15% after deal failure, whereas stock targets return to their pre-announcement levels. The differences in revaluation do not revert over longer horizons. We find no evidence that future takeover activities or operational changes explain these differences. While the targets of failed cash and stock offers are both more likely to be acquired over the following 8 years than matched control firms, there are no differences between cash and stock targets, neither in the timing nor in the value of future offers. Similarly, we cannot detect differential operational policies following the failed bid. Our results are most consistent with cash bids revealing prior undervaluation of the target. We reconcile our findings with the opposite conclusion in earlier literature (Bradley, Desai, and Kim, 1983) by identifying a "look-ahead" bias built into their sample construction. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aG14 - Information and Market Efficiency • Event Studies • Insider Trading2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aG34 - Mergers • Acquisitions • Restructuring • Corporate Governance2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD82 - Asymmetric and Private Information • Mechanism Design2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aOpp, Marcus Matthias.1 aSaidi, Farzad.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18211.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821141uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821102811cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002000070245016900090260006600259490004200325500001500367520159900382530006101981538007202042538003602114690009002150690008502240700002602325710004202351830007702393856003802470856003702508w18210NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aShoven, John B.10aWhen Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rulesh[electronic resource] /cJohn B. Shoven, Sita Nataraj Slavov. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18210 aJuly 2012.3 aSocial Security benefits may be commenced at any time between ages 62 and 70. As individuals who claim later can, on average, expect to receive benefits for a shorter period, an actuarial adjustment is made to the monthly benefit to reflect the age at which benefits are claimed. In earlier work (Shoven and Slavov, 2012), we investigated the actuarial fairness of this adjustment for individuals with average life expectancy for their cohort. We found that for current real interest rates, delaying is actuarially advantageous for a large subset of people, particularly for primary earners in married couples. In this paper, we quantify the degree of actuarial advantage or disadvantage for individuals whose mortality differs from the average. We find that at real interest rates close to zero, most households - even those with mortality rates that are twice the average - benefit from some delay, at least for the primary earner. At real interest rates closer to their historical average, however, singles with mortality that is substantially greater than average do not benefit from delay; however, primary earners with high mortality can still improve the present value of the household's benefits through delay. We also investigate the extent to which the actuarial advantage of delay has grown since the early 1960s, when the choice of when to claim first became available, and we decompose this growth into three effects: (1) the effect of changes in Social Security's rules, (2) the effect of changes in the real interest rate, and (3) the effect of changes in life expectancy. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD14 - Household Saving • Personal Finance2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH55 - Social Security and Public Pensions2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aSlavov, Sita Nataraj.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18210.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1821041uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1821002345cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002700070245012400097260006600221490004200287500001500329520105700344530006101401538007201462538003601534690008501570690007001655690009101725700002401816700002101840710004201861830007701903856003801980856003702018w18209NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aKalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem.10aGlobal Banks and Crisis Transmissionh[electronic resource] /cSebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Elias Papaioannou, Fabrizio Perri. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18209 aJuly 2012.3 aWe study the effect of financial integration (through banks) on the transmission of international business cycles. In a sample of 20 developed countries between 1978 and 2009 we find that, in periods without financial crises, increases in bilateral banking linkages are associated with more divergent output cycles.This relation is significantly weaker during financial turmoil periods, suggesting that financial crises induce co-movement among more financially integrated countries. We also show that countries with stronger, direct and indirect, financial ties to the U.S. experienced more synchronized cycles with the U.S. during the recent 2007-2009 crisis. We then interpret these findings using a simple general equilibrium model of international business cycles with banks and shocks to banking activity. The model suggests that the relation between integration and synchronization depends on the type of shocks hitting the world economy, and that shocks to global banks played an important role in triggering and spreading the 2007-2009 crisis. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aE32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF15 - Economic Integration2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aF36 - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aPapaioannou, Elias.1 aPerri, Fabrizio.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18209.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820941uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820902493cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001900070245014500089260006600234490004200300500001500342520120900357530006101566538007201627538003601699690010601735690006901841690009101910700002002001710004202021830007702063856003802140856003702178w18207NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAlfaro, Laura.10aSelection and Market Reallocationh[electronic resource]:bProductivity Gains from Multinational Production /cLaura Alfaro, Maggie X. Chen. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18207 aJuly 2012.3 aAssessing the productivity gains from multinational production has been a vital topic of economic research. Positive aggregate productivity gains are often attributed to within-firm productivity improvement; however, an alternative, less emphasized explanation is between-firm selection and market reallocation, whereby competition from multinationals leads to factor reallocation and the survival of only the most productive domestic firms. We investigate the roles of the two different mechanisms in determining the aggregate productivity gains by exploring their distinct predictions on the distributions of domestic firms: within-firm productivity improvement shifts the productivity and the revenue distributions rightward while between-firm selection and market reallocation raise the left truncation of the distributions and shift revenue leftward. Using a rich cross-country firm-level panel dataset, we find significant evidence of both mechanisms, but between-firm selection and market reallocation accounts for the majority of aggregate productivity gains, suggesting that ignoring this channel could lead to substantial bias in understanding the nature of gains from multinational production. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aF2 - International Factor Movements and International Business2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO1 - Economic Development2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aChen, Maggie X.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18207.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820741uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820702529cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002200070245013600092260006600228490004200294500001500336520120300351530006101554538007201615538003601687690008101723690008401804690011601888700002302004700001802027710004202045830007702087856003802164856003702202w18206NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aHoynes, Hilary W.10aIncome, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Healthh[electronic resource] /cHilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, David Simon. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18206 aJuly 2012.3 aThis paper evaluates the health impact of a central piece in the U.S. safety net for families with children: the Earned Income Tax Credit. Using tax-reform induced variation in the federal EITC, we examine the impact of the credit on infant health outcomes. We find that increased EITC income reduces the incidence of low birth weight and increases mean birth weight. For single low education (<= 12 years) mothers, a policy-induced treatment on the treated increase of $1000 in EITC income is associated with 6.7 to 10.8% reduction in the low birth weight rate, with larger impacts for births to African American mothers. These impacts are evident with difference-in-difference models and event study analyses. Our results suggest that part of the mechanism for this improvement in birth outcomes is the result of more prenatal care and less negative health behaviors (smoking). We find little role for changes in health insurance. We contribute to the literature by establishing that an exogenous increase in income can improve health, and illustrating a health impact of a non-health program. More generally, we demonstrate the potential for positive external benefits of the social safety net. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH2 - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH51 - Government Expenditures and Health2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI38 - Government Policy • Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aMiller, Douglas L.1 aSimon, David.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18206.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820641uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820601968cam a22002657 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245007600093260006600169490004200235500001500277520073300292530006101025538007201086538003601158690010501194690008401299690012501383710004201508830007701550856003801627856003701665w18205NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aPindyck, Robert S.14aThe Climate Policy Dilemmah[electronic resource] /cRobert S. Pindyck. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18205 aJuly 2012.3 aClimate policy poses a dilemma for environmental economists. The economic argument for stringent GHG abatement is far from clear. There is disagreement among both climate scientists and economists over the likelihood of alternative climate outcomes, over the nature and extent of the uncertainty over those outcomes, and over the framework that should be used to evaluate potential benefits from GHG abatement, including key policy parameters. I argue that the case for stringent abatement cannot be based on the kinds of modeling exercises that have permeated the literature, but instead must be based on the possibility of a catastrophic outcome. I discuss how an analysis that incorporates such an outcome might be conducted. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aD81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aQ54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18205.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820541uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820502532cam a22002777 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100002300070245013900093260006600232490004200298500001500340520115900355530006101514538007201575538003601647690009701683690008401780690011401864690008201978710004202060830007702102856003802179856003702217w18204NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aManski, Charles F.10aChoosing Size of Government Under Ambiguityh[electronic resource]:bInfrastructure Spending and Income Taxation /cCharles F. Manski. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18204 aJuly 2012.3 aAttempting to shed light on the optimal size of government, economists have analyzed planning problems that specify a set of feasible taxation-spending policies and a social welfare function. The analysis characterizes the optimal policy choice of a planner who knows the welfare achieved by each policy. This paper examines choice of size of government by a planner who has partial knowledge of population preferences and the productivity of spending. This is a problem of decision making under ambiguity. Focusing on income-tax financed public spending for infrastructure that aims to enhance productivity, I examine scenarios where the planner observes the outcome of a status quo policy and uses various decision criteria (expected welfare, maximin, Hurwicz, minimax-regret) to choose policy. The analysis shows that the planner can reasonably choose a wide range of spending levels--thus, a society can rationalize having a small or large government. I conclude that to achieve credible conclusions about the desirable size of government, we need to vastly improve current knowledge of population preferences and the productivity of public spending. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aH11 - Structure, Scope, and Performance of Government2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH21 - Efficiency • Optimal Taxation2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aH54 - Infrastructures • Other Public Investment and Capital Stock2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aJ22 - Time Allocation and Labor Supply2Journal of Economic Literature class.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18204.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820441uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820402407cam a22002897 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001900070245012100089260006600210490004200276500001500318520107700333530006101410538007201471538003601543690009201579690011501671690009601786700002101882700002001903710004201923830007701965856003802042856003702080w18203NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aArora, Ashish.10aManaging Licensing in a Market for Technologyh[electronic resource] /cAshish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri, Thomas Roende. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18203 aJuly 2012.3 aOver the last decade, companies have paid greater attention to the management of their intellectual assets. We build a model that helps understand how licensing activity should be organized within large corporations. More specifically, we compare decentralization--where the business unit using the technology makes licensing decisions--to centralized licensing. The business unit has superior information about licensing opportunities but may not have the appropriate incentives because its rewards depend upon product market performance. If licensing is decentralized, the business unit forgoes valuable licensing opportunities since the rewards for licensing are (optimally) weaker than those for product market profits. This distortion is stronger when production-based incentives are more powerful, making centralization more attractive. Growth of technology markets favors centralization and drives higher licensing rates. Our model conforms to the existing evidence that reports heterogeneity across firms in both licensing propensity and organization of licensing. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aL2 - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aL24 - Contracting Out • Joint Ventures • Technology Licensing2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aO32 - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aFosfuri, Andrea.1 aRoende, Thomas.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18203.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820341uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1820302423cam a22003137 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012008004100029100001900070245013800089260006600227490004200293500001500335520049400350520056500844530006101409538007201470538003601542690009001578690010501668690008101773700002101854700002101875700001901896710004201915830007701957856003802034856003702072w18202NBER20180319034634.0180319s2012 mau||||fs|||| 000 0 eng d1 aAshlagi, Itai.14aThe Need for (long) Chains in Kidney Exchangeh[electronic resource] /cItai Ashlagi, David Gamarnik, Michael A. Rees, Alvin E. Roth. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2012.1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w18202 aJuly 2012.3 aIt has been previously shown that for sufficiently large pools of patient-donor pairs, (almost) efficient kidney exchange can be achieved by using at most 3-way cycles, i.e. by using cycles among no more than 3 patient-donor pairs. However, as kidney exchange has grown in practice, cycles among n>3 pairs have proved useful, and long chains initiated by non-directed, altruistic donors have proven to be very effective. We explore why this is the case, both empirically and theoretically.3 aWe provide an analytical model of exchange when there are many highly sensitized patients, and show that large cycles of exchange or long chains can significantly increase efficiency when the opportunities for exchange are sparse. As very large cycles of exchange cannot be used in practice, long non-simultaneous chains initiated by non-directed donors significantly increase efficiency in patient pools of the size and composition that presently exist. Most importantly, long chains benefit highly sensitized patients without harming low-sensitized patients. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers. aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web. 7aC78 - Bargaining Theory • Matching Theory2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aD02 - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aI11 - Analysis of Health Care Markets2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aGamarnik, David.1 aRees, Michael A.1 aRoth, Alvin E.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w18202.4 uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1820241uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w18202