Cleveland Indians Perspective

I have been posting on Indians' forums and blogging about the Indians for most of the last 20 years. Stop by here to read interesting articles and opinions not allowed on most Tribe forums. This site is not affiliated with the Cleveland Indians

Tuesday, September 2, 2014

When the Indians' season opened the fans, those of us who still care, didn't know what to expect. Was last year a mirage, a perfect storm unlikely to be repeated? Were we due for a crash after everything falling our way last year?

How about the farm system and the draft? Would some of our suspects become true prospects without the opposite happening? How about the draft?

Well, here are my thoughts:

Indians - The Indians have given me exactly what I expected: an above average team that might make the playoffs, just like last year. Lonnie Chisenhall, on total, has been the best we could hope for. Injuries to key players have not destroyed the team, nor has the inability to sign a quality starter or the disintegration of Justin Masterson's ability. Players like Chisenhall, Tyler Holt, Jose Ramirez, Cody Allen, Kyle Crockett, Nick Hagadone and others have stepped up. Michael Brantley has added power to his game taking him from being a great 4th outfielder, passable starter to a star in the game, especially with his hitting with runners on base. Hopefully the Indians have found that they can by with young players and don't have to count on the John Axfords/Chris Dickersons/etc. of the world to fill in the holes on the bench. Now, I am not down on the Michael Bourn/Nick Swisher signings at all although giving Jason Giambi $1 million for highly predictable lack of production seems a waste. Still, the glue that holds this together is Terry Francona. He makes this work and, in terms of getting production out of limited resources, he rivals Whitey Herzog, at least to me.

Prospects - This has actually been a banner year for the Indians' player development and that doesn't even count team success as last night we crowned our first league champion (Arizona Indians - congratulations guys) with 3 more teams in the playoffs and two others, Carolina and the DSL Indians, who were banging at the playoff door but just failed by an eyelash of getting in.

Whenever you look down your list of prospects and see a good number of guys holding their rank and more moving up than moving down, it's been a good year. Plus, add a draft that has produced many excellent performances this season, and the Indians' farm system is definitely on the upswing. Let's look at the my Indians' top 20 prospects before the season and look at their performances so far:

1. Trevor Bauer - He has been everything I hoped he would be. A kid like him will only get better as he gets more experience. Not an ace yet but on his way to being a solid #2 or #3 on a perennial pennant contender.

2. Francisco Lindor - He is a stud and our #1 prospect now that Bauer has graduated.

3. Clint Frazier - The same question marks apply to Frazier now that applied to him last year. He probably moved down a notch or two but is still a top 5 prospect in this organization.

4. Kyle Crockett - Another of my surprise picks that caused skepticism from my fellow fans but he is a stud reliever this year. As funny as it seems, I would trade him now that his value is as high as it may ever be.

5. Tyler Naquin - He looked like he was preparing to go all Michael Brantley on us but his injury ended his season prematurely. Still, if he recovers, he is on a path that brings him to Cleveland to help sometime in 2015.

6. Francisco Mejia - Not starting in low A ball hurts his prospect status to me. Nevertheless, in total, his season at Mahoning Valley was very, very solid, showing that, as a catcher, he is still a very good prospect.

7. Luis Lugo - His peripherals are great. He will fall in prospect status just because he can't seem to limit damage which results in a high ERA. Nevertheless, he is one of the best arms in our system.

8. Jesus Aguilar - In hindsight, he might have been rated too highly by me. Still, his solid AAA campaign bodes well for him to at least be a role player on this team next year.

9. Cody Anderson - The first clunker in my list...and I rated him lower than most. He doesn't seem to be able to get AA hitters out. Maybe he can fix that...we hope.

10. CC Lee - In a weak farm system starting the season, he has been as good as anyone can expect.

11. Ronny Rodriguez - His development has COMPLETELY stopped. I mean ground to a halt. Maybe he was upset he didn't get a promotion but, man, this guy was a potential 2015 piece who could easily now go the way of Juan Diaz. Not good!

12. Tony Wolters - He looks solid here to me. If he could hit a little more he could draw images of Craig Biggio..

13. Dorsyss Paulino - Switching to the OF at least kept him on the prospect map but his bat needs to pick it up. A slight disappointment for me but I still am on his side in terms of his long term potential.

14. Carlos Moncrief - A solid season piled on top of two previous solid seasons. He is not quite good enough to be a 4th outfielder in terms of his overall skill set but might get some time as an extra player on the Indians in 2015.

15. Bryan Price - Rough ML beginning notwithstanding I think this guy has a chance, I mean SHOULD have a chance, to be a big contributor in 2015 ala Kyle Crockett this year.

16. Jose Ramirez - Only this low in my pre-season rankings because of his injured finger. Now that he is healthy the Indians like him even more than I do. I see him as a Jose Oquendo utility infielder but he may be more.

17. TJ House - I had him higher than most and, in hindsight, he should have probably been where Cody Anderson was. Good for House and the Indians that he has shot up the chart, however.

18. Austin Adams - Exactly where he should be in a system that was weak at the beginning of the season.

19. Joe Wendle - An injury sucked the life out of his season but this ranking probably still stands for him, all things considered.

20. Erik Gonzalez - Probably moved up some places as he was solid as a hitter at Carolina before doing a Francisco Lindor hitting impersonation upon his promotion to Akron. As with Lindor last year, an injury muddied the waters as to whether Gonzalez was going to maintain his stratospheric production at Akron.

So, many guys solid and more guys up than down, at least in the top 20.

As far as the draft it is looking pretty good right now. Zimmer is who we thought we drafted. Bradley looks like a stud and a real value where we got him. Sheffeld, Hockin and Hentges have not embarrassed themselves or raised any red flags so far. The only clunker so far is Mike Papi who, for some inexplicable reason, has totally forgotten how to hit. I will give him a mulligan on this season, however, especially when you consider his walk rate and his versatility. Still, his performance is the biggest red flag so far from our 2014 draft. Every other draftee has performed as well or better than expected with not a single one of them looking like a steal whereas a number of them (e.g. Cameron Hill) looking very intriguing at this point but very few, if any, of them looking like wasted picks when you consider their draft slot. When you can say that this early in the draft, it has to be considered a success and, although I would have drafted differently, I commend the Indians for their draft this year. It looks like a winner to me.

Throw in some Asian prospects and this farm system is on the big upswing.

Right now I would say that Zimmer probably slots right below Naquin with Bradley being right below Zimmer, only due to the question marks associated with low level rookie ball. The rest of the 2014 top draftees will probably fall in spots 11-20 when the pre-season 2015 prospect lists start to come out.

All in all a great season so far for the Indians and their farm system...and we still have a month of baseball...or more...left.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Deciding that they couldn't win with Tyler Holt in the OF the Indians:

(a) traded for Chris Dickerson Th

(b) sent Holt to the minors after he appeared in one game..as a 9th inning defensive replacement. Unlike the movie Moonlight Graham (and his real life counterpart), he actually had a ball hit to him, which he caught to end the game. Aside from that, his ML experience had to be surrealistically like that of the character from "The Natural".

I guess the Indians thought they had a better chance to win with Dickerson. They were wrong as they lost to the Yankees last night.

The Indians and I have disagreed for years on this method of operation and we will continue to disagree. History has shown me that every time they pull this crap it doesn't help the team and it hurts the morale of the organization. Holt deserved to get to plate and he could have started and batted 9th last night.

While the Indians thrash around in losing seasons with minor league free agents dotting their ML roster they diss guys from their own organization who, while probably ending up as 4A players are actually OUR 4A players who are having good seasons and who deserve the shot at the limelight.

So, keep bringing in the minor league free agents like Dickerson and dissing your homegrown guys like Holt. The Indians have a history of doing that. As someone who has interviewed minor leaguers for years and heard the tone in their voices when they talk about making 'The Show', it really pains me to see what happened to Holt.

Maybe it will turn out well for him and he will finally get to 'feel the tingle in his hands as he makes contact with the ball, stretching a hit into an extra base hit and hugging the bag as he slides in'. If he does, I doubt it will be because the Indians feel the need to reward one of their own instead of bringing in 4A guys who have actually had their shot already.

The Indians went with Chris Dickerson...and, in so doing, lost more than just a baseball game.

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Before the 2013 season I projected that Hector Rondon, as a reliever, would not only survive the entire season with the Cubs but would, if he was pitching well, end 2013 as the Cubs closer. I was half right: He made it through the entire season (thus we officially lost him in the Rule 5 draft) but it took him until May of this year to become the Cubs closer. He is currently 7 for 9 in save opportunities...and he didn't cost the Cubs $6 million (see Axford).

Before the 2013 season I predicted that there was only a small chance of TJ McFarland making the Orioles and being officially lost to free agency. I was wrong. He did make the Orioles and the Indians lost him to the Rule 5. He is still pitching for the Orioles.

I suggested that instead of drafting Lonnie Chisenhall we draft Conor Gillaspie or Lance Lynn. Well Chisenhall is playing the best of the three this year but Lynn is still pretty good and the last time I looked Gillaspie was hitting .340. So, for all those people who I took flack from at the time, well, I just have to laugh.

I projected that Matt Langwell would have more of an impact on 2013 than Jason Kubel. I was right. However, Kubel is now having a great impact and Langwell is playing independent ball. Go figure!

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Cleveland needs the draft. Forays into the on-the-cheap free agent market have not worked. Relief options are more appealing if they are cheap draftees (Cody Allen) than overpaid wishes (John Axford).

People say that the draft is a crapshoot. Actually, you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling 7 in craps. You have a 65% chance of your first rounder making the majors, higher if you draft in the top 10 slots. The crapshoot analogy is well, not even an analogy. It makes it sound like draft success is mostly dumb luck...which works out great if you want to defend your team's dumb picks. However, except for that use, it is not worth much as an analogy to the baseball draft.

So, with that preface, here is my analysis.

Overall analysis: Many, if not all, 'experts' pick the success of a team's draft by its overall haul of talent. They especially value that talent if it fits with their pre-conceived idea of which players are most talented. So Keith Law loves our draft. His draft rankings of the prospects we drafted, however, are really off (and much higher) compared to what two other organizations (Baseball America and MLB.com) rate those same players. So, who is right? I don't know but I wouldn't necessarily trust Law. Plus, Baseball America favors drafts that have a lot of picks towards the top end.

So, Indians' fans should be happy that both Law and Baseball America rate the Indians' draft well. It is clearly better than the other alternative.

Personally, I rate their draft as above average in terms of overall talent but below average in terms of the talent they could have gotten.

What does that mean? In any draft the talent you get is determined, to a large extent, by where you select and how many extra picks you have early in the draft. We had 3 picks in the top 38 which means we SHOULD have gotten better than average talent from this draft since we had more shots at it than most teams. As far as talent we received vs talent we could have had, this always is in the eye of the beholder. Still, when you look at the warts on the guys the Indians drafted (e.g., limitation in terms of useable and projectable tools, size limitations, etc.) you have to wonder if the picks we took were the right ones. Not saying they weren't, just saying, on paper, there are a lot of questions in that regard that I have about this draft.

Let's look, in detail, at the Indians' draft.

1. Bradley Zimmer - Zimmer, in a vacuum, is a good bargain picking at the #21. He is a safe left-handed hitting college outfielder without much power who projects as a starter if he can stick in CF but as a 4th outfielder if he has to move to one of the corners. Does that sound like anyone we know? It sounds like a carbon copy of Tyler Naquin. I have no idea why, with Brantley in the majors and Naquin at AA they would invest their first round pick in Zimmer. While he was a good value, the fit is not there and we are talking about the first round. Other talented players exist.

Analysis - Good, safe pick likely to make the majors. Terrible fit with this organization and, at some point, someone (Brantley, Naquin, Zimmer) will likely be let go to free agency or traded if Zimmer develops. I don't think you draft guys when you know they will force someone else out of the organization.

1S. Justus Sheffeld -

Analysis - Good, solid talent. However, this guy is swimming up stream. He is a short, left-handed pitcher. I thought it was really telling that someone on a message board invoked Ron Guidry. Really, is that the best you can do, reaching back into ancient history? So, while Sheffeld is not a bad pick by any means, he has to overcome his height limitations, meaning it is less likely he makes the majors, on average, than a taller pitcher. Put in another way, you don't really want to draft a guy at or above his talent level when he has a glaring weakness. Yeah, if teams undervalue him and you can steal him, you take it as his talent would overwhelm his warts if you get him at a much lower slot than where he was rated. But Sheffeld was draft at or above (depending on which 'expert' you believe) he should have been based on his talent. That makes this a very risky pick and probably not the best one at this point.

1C - Mike Papi - This guy seems like he has a great hit tool but the power is questionable. He is also left-handed. Again, if he can hit for power or play CF he is a decent pick. However, without increased power he is yet another left-handed hitting 4th outfielder/platoon firstbaseman. I think this is a very safe pick that will lead to someone being traded as we, once again, drafted to an area of strength even overdrafting this guy a bit to get a redundant prospect. Let's hope the power develops.

2 - Grant Hockin - The experts agree on this one thing: this guy was overdrafted. Plus, we overpaid him by about $150,000. So we have a decent HS pitching prospect who we overdrafted and overpaid for. You generally overdraft a guy because you can get him on the cheap and use the difference to sign more of your high end draftees whose talent is much better than the round they were drafted. Here the Indians did the opposite: they overdrafted a guy and overpaid him, even if his talent equaled his draft slot, which, according to the experts, it apparently did not.

3. Bobby Bradley - I actually like this pick. Bradley has potential as a hitter. However, the same logic applies. This guy is likely a DH waiting to happen and he hits left-handed. I guess, by the time he develops into a ML hitter, our current left-handedness may have disappeared. Plus, if you are a tools person, the guy does not have a lot of tools. Still, if he can hit, this will be a good pick. Good gamble by the Tribe.

4. Sam Hentges - All I should have to say to Indians' draft gurus is Mitch Brown. We love our Minnesota HS pitchers, don't we? However, my history (Bunkelman, Brown) tells me that drafting young arms from Minnesota is not always a good idea. Hey, I am not saying the guy is not a good prospect, just not at this point. I see him as a 6th rounder so think he was overdrafted. Plus, I wonder about his signability. This leads to me thinking that we will overpay a guy we overdrafted. Not a good combination. However, I could be wrong both about his ability and his signability. One glimmer of hope here: history has shown me that if you are going to overdraft a guy, do it with a guy from a cold weather climate. The Indians did that.

5.Julian Merryweather - In the old days of the draft this would be a stupid pick. However, as we look at conserving our budget I like this pick. The guy has a big arm and, as a college senior, was very cheap. However, at this point I would have picked the best pitchability college senior pitcher, even if his raw stuff underwhelms. Just like Bunkelman in the past, there is a reason that guys who throw this hard last this long. Still, to save money, this guy is not a bad selection.

6.Greg Allen - In a vacuum I would like this pick. The guy has some talent as a top of the order hitter. Still, Tyler Naquin, Tim Fedroff, Tyler Holt and company tell me that we are just making the same pick over and over again and, given how the results have turned out so far with Fedroff and Holt looking like AAAA players at best, I don't know if I would have gone this way. To me, there had to be a college starting pitcher with Josh Tomlin upside left at this point.

7. Simeon Lucas - Hey, we are down into the 200s at this point in terms of players drafted this year. At this point it is all guess-work and long-term projection...with an eye on keeping the draft budget under control so we can have a little extra to sign more talent that wants over slot. This is where the scouts earn their money. I will trust that the Indians know what they are doing here.

8. Micah Miniard - See Lucas. Note that the danger at this point is drafting a guy that is totally unsignable. If the Indians can sign this guy for slot or less, I am on board with this pick. If they drain their budget by signing this guy, I don't like this pick at all. And remember, if they don't sign him their budget goes down by his slot amount which is never a good thing.

9. Alex Pantoja - Look, the guy can pick it. The question is can he hit. To me this is like a $150,000 Latin signing except his English is better. Good risk here, especially if he signs for slot.

10. Steve Patterson - Another college senior drafted to save money, the key is just not to draft organizational players in the 10th round. This guy looks no different to me than the Roberts kid we drafted last year. Like Merryweather, I would rather have had a big-armed college senior here. Same cost, more upside.

Rounds 11-40 - This is another place where the scouts make their money and Brad Grant makes his. The key here is to draft pitchers with relief upside and sprinkle in just enough HS/JUCO guys where 1-2 of them may work out. The Indians have been very good at this for years (see Vinnie Pestano and Cody Allen and, to a lesser extent, guys like Shawn Armstrong, Matt Langwell, Neil Wagner and many others who are either decent or fringe major leaguers).

The one thing the Indians seldom come away with is an impact player in these rounds. I would like to see that once in a while. We have had our chances (Tim Lincecum and Desmond Jennings come to mind) but have seldom been able to draft these guys and, when we did, haven't signed them...and that was BEFORE the budget restrictions. Now it appears the Indians are looking for two things after the 10th round: pitchers projecting as relievers and...a miracle.

That's it for now. Next we will have a review of past shadow drafts and how they compare to corresponding Indians' drafts and, of course, the 2014 shadow draft.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

It's that time of year. The time after the Rule 5 draft, after a lot of the major trades, after the free agent signings where you can, at least for a second, take a step back and see what your farm system has in the way of prospects.

A couple of observations:

1. The Indians still have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball and the top prospects in their system, Francisco Lindor (back), Clint Frazier (strikeouts) and Trevor Bauer (headcase) al have significant warts.

2. There is still very little prospect as most of the high risk/high reward guys are doing badly.

So, when I put this list together, I used 3 criteria:

1. Chances of helping the ML team this year.
2. Projection of best possible performance
3. Injury history

Not too different than most prospect lists except that a lot of people don't look at 1. that much, if at all. I do.

And there you have it. I know it may sound weird but I could see as many as 70 of these guys making it to AAA and maybe 25-30 at least having cups of coffee in the majors. For any farm system that is a lot. Still, this system is weak on star power. Maybe some of these guys will exceed expectations...or that is the hope of every Indians' fan everywhere!