Phil Reisman: Dem hopefuls say they'll play nice for a change

Jan. 19, 2013

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It’s an old truism: The Democratic Party has so many internal squabbles that it resembles a circular firing squad.

But the hoary metaphor will not hold up in Westchester County — not this year, not in the race for county executive.

Democratic leaders got their three candidates in a room last week and pretty much ordered them to play nice. They will abide by the results of the party’s convention and resist any temptation to force a long, bitter, drawn-out primary fight.

In other words, they must rally behind the chosen candidate and appear to be in lock step. In short, they must behave more like, well … Republicans.

There were no objections from the trio of Democratic hopefuls — County Board Chairman Ken Jenkins of Yonkers, New Rochelle City Mayor Noam Bramson and Legislator Bill Ryan of White Plains.

“I suspect the Democrats got smart and realized that a unified party going into the fall is critical if they want to win,” said Paul Noto, who is a partner in the Strategic Political Group, based in Mamaroneck.

No doubt that’s true. The Democrats believe they have a solid opportunity to defeat the Republican incumbent Rob Astorino — and they have a lot of reasons to be optimistic.

They think Astorino’s victory in 2009 was ephemeral, driven by voter fatigue with Andy Spano, who held the office for 12 years. But their main strength is a huge advantage in enrollment. They don’t want to blow their chances by engaging in a bloody, money-draining primary that could easily alienate their base and limit voter turnout in November.

But the question is who among the three Democrats gains the most by the party edict.

Start with the absurd. As funny as it may sound, the convention route actually helps Ryan, who is the underdog of underdogs. Since his announcement, he has raised $250, which is barely enough to buy a handful of balloons and some stale sandwiches. Free from having to spend any money, Ryan went from “no chance” to “slim chance.”

Some longtime observers of the political scene are mystified by Bramson’s acquiescence.

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“There’s no upside for him, there’s only a downside,” one veteran Democrat told me.

According to his analysis, Jenkins has the best chance to win in a convention because of his inside connections to party honchos, especially those in his home turf of southern Westchester. Jenkins is a skilled politician who, in his epic quest to unseat Astorino, has basically spent the last three years oiling the party machine.

It’s still early, but to date, Bramson has managed to outdo Jenkins by a nearly 2-to-1 margin in fundraising. He’s taken in $426,870 compared with the chairman’s $218,000. (Astorino has raised a whopping $2.2 million so far, and will need at least that much to overcome the enrollment gap.)

Bramson might lose in a convention to Jenkins, but win a primary. At least that is the theory.

So if this theory is valid, why would Bramson eliminate a Plan B option, a primary bid?

I put the question to Bramson. He pretty much toed the company line.

“The general election will be a significant challenge,” he said. “And I think any time and attention and passions that’s devoted to an intramural contest complicates our efforts in the November general election.”

Bramson left it at that, saying that he didn’t want to act as a pundit in his own race. That’s understandable.

Noto said that Bramson, “an extremely bright, politically savvy guy,” has undoubtedly weighed the risks and believes he’s got at least an even chance at convincing a majority of the hundreds of district leaders who will gather at the June convention.

Geographically speaking, Bramson and Jenkins may cancel each other out. Bramson would presumably hold sway with leaders from New Rochelle and the Sound shore communities, while Jenkins would be backed by those in Yonkers and Mount Vernon.

Count on this: Over the next few months deals will be cut. Promises and pledges will be made. It’s interesting to note, for example, that Bramson has stated his support for moving the Ferncliff Manor residential school for developmentally disabled children to the former WestHELP site in Greenburgh, an effort that is favored by many prominent elected officials in Greenburgh, which is home to about 10 percent of the county’s Democrats.

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“You saw the movie ‘Lincoln,’ you know what kind of agreements can be made,” Noto said with a laugh. “Things haven’t changed much since 1864.”

The overall consideration by the district leaders will be winnability. Who has the best chance to defeat Astorino — Jenkins or Bramson?

That may be a draw, too.

But the word from the ninth floor is that the candidate the GOP fears most is Bramson. He has a broad appeal and could match up well in a debate with Astorino.

The Astorino camps thinks Jenkins can be beaten because of his record of fighting Astorino at most every turn by filing lawsuits and overriding executive vetoes. He will be painted as an obstructionist.

Bramson will be attacked for raising taxes in New Rochelle (the city’s garbage surcharge tax is an especially sensitive issue). But how much traction that gets on a countywide scale is uncertain at best.

A Bramson candidacy further worries the GOP because it would likely inspire droves of New Rochelle Democrats to come out and vote. That could spell serious trouble for Legislator Sheila Marcotte, a Republican whose district includes part of the city and who won by a narrow margin when she ran the last time.

Election Day is far off. But one thing is already settled: The Democrats have made a pledge of unity, and that’s not good news for Astorino.