Archive for January 2015

After the Golden Globes two weeks ago, let’s go to the other awards ceremony that awards both TV and movie performances, the Screen Actors Guild. With thousand of members that comprise the SAG-AFTRA group, the SAG Awards is an award given to actors by their own peers. This year, let’s see who’d end up winning the nude Actor trophy in 13 different categories.

THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion PictureBirdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything

PREDICTION: Boyhood. This one is quite tricky. There are years when the SAG goes their own way and award the most ensemble-y nominee of the group (see: Sideways,American Hustle, The Help) but then there are years where the default Best Picture frontrunner just skates by (see: Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men), I think this year we’d get the latter and have the four-member cast of Boyhood take the top trophy.

ALTERNATE: Birdman.But still, we can see a scenario where Birdman emerges as the top winner here. After all, it’s a film about actors, and that might resonate well in this branch. With three individual acting nominations and an ensemble full of many prominent Hollywood names in it, a case can be made for them winning.

PREDICTION: Michael Keaton, Birdman. Keaton fits the veteran bill that this category loves to reward. He plays a struggling has-been which a lot would surely find relate-able. Plus, him getting this break at the state of his career is every actor’s inspiring story. This is very crucial to Keaton. If he loses this on Sunday, then it’s over for him at the Oscars.

ALTERNATE: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. He has BAFTA wrapped around his little finger already, so if he wins this one, then he’d surely be ahead of Keaton as Oscar comes in. This game is closer than what we probably think, and he’s very much into the race. Remember that his film scored an Ensemble nod even if it’s basically him and co-star Jones on the forefront.

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. Let’s just stick with the veteran who hasn’t won this category yet. It’s basically a smooth train ride all the way to the Oscar so just prepare your speeches, Jules.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, Cake.Bleh who cares if she was Oscar snubbed. When half of the voters are from the TV actors guild, Rachel Green can surely still rake ’em votes.

PREDICTION:Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo. He’s the only Fargo acting nomination this year so that might be a bit of a reach, but there seems to be passion for Thornton’s Lorne Malvo, and this is a pretty weak competition he has this year.

ALTERNATE: Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart.After losing the Emmy and the Golden Globe, the whole of Normal Heart simply isn’t just resonating well with voters. But who knows, maybe this can be a substitute award since he’s not winning Film Supporting Actor.

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, Olive Kitteridge.I’m really not sure with this one as I had her pegged for the Globe only to see her lose, but she’s a respected veteran who has won Best Actress for Fargo in 1997 so there’s at least a precedent.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Honorable Woman.Or it can just be like the Globes where Maggie does a repeat making her a strong case at the Emmys this year.

PREDICTION: Matthew McConaughey, True Detective.So I’ve predicted McConaighey for the Emmy only to see him lose to Bryan Cranston. Then I’ve predicted him for the Golden Globe where he then lost to Billy Bob Thornton. I don’t even know why I’m predicting him for a third time. Maybe I’m jinxing him actually.

ALTERNATE: Kevin Spacey, House of Cards.After his Golden Globe win two weeks ago, is SAG following suit? If the voters aren’t really up for some McConaughey crowning, expect 2x Oscar winner Kevin Spacey to benefit from it.

PREDICTION: Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder. I’m really shocked by her nomination considering how newer performances don’t easily get nominated that quick here, but she seems to be an actor’s actor type of performer who generate command and passion from her peers.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey.Or might as well just stick with the current (still a no show) winner.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama SeriesBoardwalk Empire
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards

PREDICTION: Downton Abbey.None of these really strikes to me as a winner. Boardwalk has won twice before and isn’t winning here for sure. Homeland hasn’t but it has ran past its course. Game of Thrones doesn’t necessarily scream a best ensemble winner template even if it has a large ensemble. Thus I’m sticking with the Brits who pulled off this upset win in 2012.

ALTERNATE: House of Cards.If not them, then let’s just go with the only new nominee from the bunch, even if it’s basically the Kevin and Robin show.

PREDICTION: Ty Burrell, Modern Family.With no strong frontrunner here plus the fact that they love repeat winners in their TV categories, let’s just stick with the only man who gave Alec Baldwin in 30 Rock his only SAG loss.

ALTERNATE: William H. Macy, Shameless.Macy is the veteran of this group, and if there’s a lot of name checking here, he’d be one who’d benefit the most.

PREDICTION: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep. This doesn’t scream to me as a one-time winner only so an easy repeat win for the current champ.

ALTERNATE: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black.When a striking scene-stealer makes some pop culture waves, the SAG usually bites (see Sandra Oh and Chandra Wilson in Grey’s Anatomy), but if the Globes didn’t even bite to the Aduba bandwagon, it would take more than that to overcome Julia’s run.

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory
Brooklyn Nine Nine
Modern Family
Orange is the New Black
Veep

PREDICTION: Orange is the New Black. For some reason, this seems like the Matthew McConaughey thing again. I predicted it at the Emmys only to lose to Modern Family, then I went with it at the Globes because it’s such a Globes-y thing to do to reward it and they went with Transparent. Maybe the 40 group ensemble would be enough to finally secure a major win for the show?

ALTERNATE: Modern Family.Say what you want, but this ensemble still works six seasons after. They have a perfect 5/5 record at the SAGs and if there’s one show who’ll break that record, it’s this.

So you’ve been reading my posts all-year long on who’s gonna get nominated and how Actor A or Movie B will get in and how Director C is missing and Movie D will underperform when it comes to Oscar nominations. Thus, it’s necessary to call me out on how I did with my final Oscar predictions.

BEST PICTURE: 8/8

Welp, make that 8/9 as I predicted nine films to get it (with that unfortunate film being Gone Girl.) I refused to go beyond or below 9 considering that since the 5-10 rule was introduced in 2011, nine films consistently make it in here. This year proved that nope, nine is not the standard number. But who cares? I predicted all 8 films so points for me.

BEST DIRECTOR: 3/5

So this one is trickier. I did not see Bennett Miller coming at all. Last September, sure go ahead. But not now when you have Ava Duvernay or Clint Eastwood (both of whom I predicted) in the mix. But you can throw your eggs (real eggs if it needs some specifying) directly at me for being timid about Morten Tyldum. I was certain he won’t make it considering he missed literally everything except DGA, but it seemed like that’s the one that counted. My heart still goes out to Ava though.

BEST ACTOR: 4/5

I never bought Jake Gyllenhaal despite his precursor overperformance. His is simply not the type that this category rewards. And considering how this is closely knitted to Best Picture, that made my suspicions stronger. In hindsight, I should have never underestimated Steve Carell (he got in at Globe + SAG + BAFTA after all) plus it’s a very physical performance, but I asumed that David Oyelowo playing MLK would be too irresistible for voters. Oh well, at least I called out that Bradley Cooper is happening despite no precursors.

BEST ACTRESS: 4/5

My heart says go Jennifer Aniston, but my mind stick with Amy Adams. This is probably one of the best mistakes (cue: Ariana Grande) I had though especially since it was Marion friggin Cotillard made it. I think that’s the best surprise in this category since what? Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine perhaps. beware of Jen though. if she can end up with that strong precursor haul with a film seen by close to no one, what more if she goes to Harvey? When it happens, you’ll shit bricks.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: 5/5

Snooze. Next.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 4/5

So I missed Laura Dern for Jessica Chastain. I never considered Dern here and thought the last spot was between Jessica Chastain and Rene Russo. But never underestimate the power of the Derns when it comes to campaigning. Laura did one heck of a job for his father Bruce last year, you’d be foolish to think she won’t do the same for herself. I’m happy for her nomination though, Wild still unseen, because she’s one of the few actresses who continuously pursues interesting projects.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 4/5

My alternate Foxcatcher ended up happening. I was ready to predict it over Mr. Turner, but I bailed out the last minute thinking the Academy would still name check Mike Leigh in spite. Bad call.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 4/5

Probably one of the worst snubs this season is Gillian Flynn’s Gone Girl miss. I don’t know if this misogyny thing is really to be blamed, and I understand that the story of Gone Girl is indeed close to ridiculous, but the idea of adapting your own novel to the big screen and getting raves for such is nomination worthy regardless of one’s gender. I still don’t know what happened there, but I predicted it over Paul Thomas Anderson in Inherent Vice.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: 4/5

My only confusion when predicting here is that there’s only one room for a film title that begins with T. So is it gonna be Tangerines or Timbuktu? The correct answer is that both happened and the marvelous film Force Majeuere was snubbed instead. That’s a real WTF moment there. Either way, I would have gotten 4/5 as I didn’t see that Force Majeuere miss happening.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: 4/5

Same with Foreign Language Film, I had my alternate “Song of the Sea” but in the event that I include it, I’ll be moving The Boxtrolls instead. I did not see that The Lego Movie would miss, and I still don’t understand the reason why it did.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: 3/5

So while I got FindingVivian Maier correct, I should have moved Last Days in Vietnam in my actual prediction and left The Overnighters there. I never considered The Salt of the Earth (up to now I still don’t know what that one’s about), but I’m a bit bummed that Life Itself, a documentary about the late Roger Ebert missed the category. A nomination would have sufficed as a tribute to a person who loved cinema like no other.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 5/5

Two words: DICK POOP. Oh and yay me!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN: 3/5

Just when you thought they’re gonna go safe and boring with the period pieces; thus, I went with The Imitation Game and Selma, they go inspired with something like Inherent Vice. Missing Maleficent was my bad though; this is the same branch that nominated two Snow White films in one year, so I should have seen that coming.

BEST EDITING: 4/5

So I missed my alternate American Sniper for Birdman here. I thought American Sniper was an editing catnip, but if they nominated Gravity for Editing last year despite its lack of well… actual editing, I thought Birdman would get a pass then. Bad call on my part.

BEST MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING: 2/3

The nose! It really should have been about the nose. It was a battle between making Eddie Redmayne as Stephen Hawking or Steve Carell in that horrible look. To quote Denzel Washington when he announced the Best Actress Oscar back in 2003, the winner here wins “by a nose.” And by nose, I mean Steve Carell’s.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: 5/5

Yay me again! I’m confused by the Birdman predictions here though? There wasn’t much production design there? It’s like Black Swan in 2010, and that one missed the nomination as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: 4/5

After awarding Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross the win in 2010 and nominating them a year after for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, it’s quite surprising they suddenly threw them to the curb this time around. What’s even more surprising? Off the consensus, Gone Girl missed in favor of Mr. Turner whose musical composer is a newbie, something this branch isn’t totally fond of.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: 4/5

Knowing how shit storm this category is (a year later, and I still can’t get over Alone Yet Not Alone‘s a nom yet not a nom), the fact that I did 4/5 here is a surprise and way better than what I expected. I did not expect Beyond the Lights to get a nom here, so I really don’t give much fucks that I missed that one. I do hope Rita Ora asks on her Twitter though that she’ll perform at the Oscars only if she gets a million retweets.

BEST SOUND EDITING: 4/5

So I pegged Guardians of the Galaxy here as an easy nominee only for it to be my only miss as Birdman made it instead which is a surprise since it’s really not the type of film here that gets nominated.

BEST SOUND MIXING: 4/5

Apparently, I got the wrong “In” as I had Into the Woods when it Interstellar ended up as my miss here. It’s quite astonishing to see how Into the Woods missed here especially since this category loves musicals. And when I say love, I really mean.. love. The likes of Ray and Dreamgirls and Les Miserables and Chicago all won this with Walk the Line and Moulin Rouge getting nominated.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: 3/5

Holy hell what happened to Godzilla? I thought for sure it would be a shoo-in nominee. And LMAO at The Hobbit which can’t even break this category anymore. In their place though that ended up nominated were my alternate X-Men: Days of Future Past (I have to say that Evan Peters’ time stopping scene alone deserves the nod already), and Captain America: The Winter Soldier (which made me giggle with glee considering how I loved that film, so an Oscar nominated film before its title is a nice bonus).

So all in all, I did really well I think. No total disasters. In the top eight, I got 36/43 nominees correct or a 84%average. And in all 21 categories, I got a total of 85 correct predictions out of 106 which translates to an 80%average. Not too shabby for someone like me, I must say!

Next up: Winners predictions which is an altogether different battlefield!

If you want to talk to me about this on Twitter, just tweet me: @nikowl

After almost a year of doing monthly predictions, all prayer circles come to this. Tonight, Academy president Cheryl Isaac Boones together with actor Chris Pine, current Best Director winner Alfonso Cuaron, and J.J. Abrams will finally reveal the 2014 class of Oscar nominees. And as per tradition, I’ll be offering my short thoughts in all 21 races.

With 10 slots up for grabs, it’s easy to identify those that would make it in a field of five. As for starters, there’s clear frontrunner Boyhood ahead of the pack. Along with it is the meta comedy Birdman, Harvey Weinstein’s biggest push The Imitation Game, the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, and this season’s biggest surprise The Grand Budapest Hotel. Selma is a clear victim of campaign mishandling and bad timing which led to its bad guild and precursor performance, but if they’re such on a limited time, it’s indeed wise to focus their eyes to Oscar which I think will pay off with a nomination. Whiplash has indeed been an overperformer this season managing to overcome obstacles one after the other, and a nod is assured at this point. American Sniper fits the bill of that late game-changing contender who’ll usually do well on the big day despite being under the radar for the most part. It’s eliciting real passion which would be enough in a tricky category such as this one. The last two slots clear go to Gone Girl and Nightcrawler — the former being that box office hit representative from an auteur that commands respect among his peers while the latter is a debut feature that hits all the right notes in terms of campaigning. If they decide to nominate ten films, then count on both making it, but since the 6-10 rule change in 2011, the median number of nominees here is 9. I’d give the advantage to Gone Girl making it in then.

The consensus three is composed of Linklater, Anderson, and Inarritu, and they all seem safe and guaranteed for slots already. Despite the Academy being cold to his more recent works, Clint Eastwood never gives up finally hitting the right notes again for the first time in 8 years; thus, I see an Oscar nod accompanying his DGA mention. Like her movie, I’m expecting Globe nominee Ava Duvernay to hit it right at the Osccars despite underwhelming at the precursors. She has the narrative and the passion to make a case in getting nominated. Don’t count out Damien Chazelle though who managed to get a BAFTA nod for Whiplash, or Morten Tyldum who showed up at DGA despite literally missing everywhere.

What a category. You have nine names battling out for five slots it’s not even funny thinking the possibilities here. Well whatever happens though, two names are assured already. The two Golden Globe Best Actor winners, Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne for comedy and drama respectively, are likely to happen no matter what. Benedict Cumberbatch is in a safe albeit lower position than the two frontrunners for his turn as Alan Turing. The rest, to put it easily, is a clusterfuck. Despite missing some big precursors, David Oyelowo playing MLK seems too odd to miss especially since the Academy, unlike other guilds, has ample time to see Selma, so I’m sticking with him here. The last spot I go back and forth between two men whose names isn’t Jake Gyllenhaal sadly. While Jake seems logical after hitting all precursors, I think he somehow is affected that the two names are from far stronger films overall. First, there’s Ralph Fiennes who picked up Globe and BAFTA nods as part of a Top 5 finisher. Then there’s Bradley Cooper who’s hot on the heels of AMPAS with two consecutive nods under his belt, and with a really baity role this time around and lots of people campaigning for him. I guess one of those two makes it, and I won’t even be surprised if both Cooper and Fiennes make it in with Oyelowo missing.

In probably the most boring race for Lead Actress in a long time, we have four names likely making it in already: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones. The last spot is between two ladies with equally both pros and cons. First up, you have perennial nominee Amy Adams in Harvey Weinstein backed-up film Big Eyes. She just won the Golden Globe last Sunday eve increasing her chances of a nom. While it seemed like her snub is impending, the Today Show controversy made her such a headline again. And she got in at the BAFTAs which sealed her last two nominations despite both times missing at SAG. Then there’s Jennifer Aniston in that film that no one probably knew about: Cake. While pundits are rallying about it, plus her getting in at Globe + SAG, would that be enough for her to have that elusive Oscar nod? Me thinks that it’s better to be safe and stick with a name the Academy has nominated five times in nine years.

This is as barren as one can possibly get, so it’s either we retain that same line up, or we have a totally out of the field surprise. Steve Carell’s BAFTA nod here threw many of us in the loop so let’s see if SPC can pull this trick off. I’d say they get close, but not totally good enough.

Patricia, Keira, and Emma have garnered precursors one after the other that they’re names are expected to show up already. Meryl missed the BAFTA (like last year for August: Osage County) but who cares? It’s the Oscars we’re talking about here so hello nod #19. The last spot is between Globe nominee Jessica Chastain who’s hot on the heels of Oscar getting nominated twice in the last three years, and BAFTA nominee Renee Russo. It does seem logical that Nightcrawler is the stronger performer between that and A Most Violent Year, but Chastain is the more known of the two, and I don’t expect Nightcrawler to really hit it big with the Oscars despite great precursor run. I keep going back and forth, but I think I give Chastain a hair-like edge in this race.

And we have officially hit awards season! On Sunday night (Monday morning to us here in The Philippines), the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will steamroll the televised awards season derby when they hand out the trophies for the 72nd Golden Globe Awards. The Golden Globes remains to be the biggest Hollywood party every year with booze and Godiva chocolates flowing, as stars of both film and television rub elbows with one another (which translates to movie stars in front and TV stars onn the back) at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. The fantastic duo of Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will host the show for the third consecutive year, and with the Sony hacking and the Amy Adams/Today Show controversy, plus George Clooney now present to receive the Cecil B. DeMille award, we bet he’ll make a reference to that infamous Gravity joke last year. And since the Globes are still about handing recognition, I’ll go on and predict the winners in all 25 categories on who will win (and not who I think should win).

PREDICTION: Boyhood. While the Globes try to do their own thing every once in a while, this seems an undeniable frontrunner that its biggest hurdle was if it will get some nomination love. Once it did, it’s Globe Drama Picture win was already signed with a ribbon.

ALTERNATE: Selma. The film is still making some last minute traction, and if there’s one thing the Globes love to honor, it’s a celebration of unity that this seems fitting as an alternate choice for the top prize.

PREDICTION: Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything.” Eddie played Stephen Hawking, staying true to his method acting. But his biggest advantage is he has campaigned the most appearing literally everywhere. I’m certain the Globes would bite.

ALTERNATE: Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Imitation Game.” Welp it will certainly end up with a relatively young Brit. Let’s see if Harvey had his way with this one.

PREDICTION: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice.” Sure she ended up having zero wins from the Big 3 critics, but it’s the televised precursors that count, and her double acting nominations this year indicate strong support if anything else.

ALTERNATE: Jennifer Aniston, “Cake.” This would be such a Globe-sy pick to happen. I mean if they bit the “cake”, then might as well go all the way, right HFPA?

PREDICTION: Birdman. Sure Budapest is slowly catching up and while Birdman’s buzz sizzled a bit, it has been rewarded with multiple nominations to squeak out a win here.

ALTERNATE: The Grand Budapest Hotel. In any other year. I’m certain Into the Woods would have factored in. But with two stronger comedy films in the mix, Budapest seems likelier to unseat Birdman in the event that actually happens.

PREDICTION: Michael Keaton, “Birdman.” The HFPA won’t pass up a chance to give a comeback moment to this previous Batman playing a washed up actor in his own film. That’s too meta that the Globes are already creaming in their pants.

ALTERNATE: Ralph Fiennes, “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Fiennes is one who the Globes love to nominate (remember his double nods in 2009?), though he, along with his film, suffers with competing directly against Birdman.

PREDICTION: Emily Blunt, “Into the Woods.” If the Globes nominated you for a film entitled “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”, you pretty much can pencil in that they love you. Plus, Blunt is a previous winner (albeit for TV), and this could be the place where they can reward Into the Woods.

ALTERNATE: Amy Adams, “Big Eyes.” HFPA voters be like “Screw it, I can’t choose let’s just go with one who’s probably still campaigning for the Oscar.”

PREDICTION: J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash.” He’s the overwhelming favorite for this tour-de-force performance that I’d say he’s pretty much safe in this category…

ALTERNATE: Edward Norton, “Birdman.” …unless they go with one of their usual favorites. Norton has won this category almost two decades ago. I won’t be surprised if there’s some reunion coronation that tips his favor.

PREDICTION: “Glory,” “Selma.” This is the place where they could reward Selma a Golden Globe win. Plus, the song’s own merit is universal that it’s right up HFPA’s alley. See U2’s upset here last year over Let It Go.

ALTERNATE: “Big Eyes,” “Big Eyes.” Well when you have three other non-factor nominated songs, this makes it an easy alternate pick. Oh, and let’s not forget that this can also be a part of Harvey Weinstein’s power (See again: U2’s upset here last year over Let It Go.)

PREDICTION:Ricky Gervais, “Derek.” Gervais is a past winner and a notorious Globes name. This smells like an easy win to me.

ALTERNATE: Jeffrey Tambor, “Transparent.” Meanwhile, Jeffrey Tambor is the veteran here doing a really challenging gender bender role. That and his show being nominated in series, I think he at least has a chance.

PREDICTION: Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep.” In a surprising twist last year and despite being nominated twice, she still hasn’t won a Globe for this performance. With no Amy Poehler in the mix, this is the perfect scenario for a catch-up win.

ALTERNATE: Gina Rodriguez, “Jane the Virgin.” Sure you’re probably going “whaaaattt” right now but young, hot it girl is a staple for the Globes.

PREDICTION: Frances McDormand, “Olive Kitteridge.” Remember when she lost to Madonna for Evita in 1996 only to end up with the actual Oscar? The Globes might play a two-decade catch up. Oh and of course, she was fantastic in the show.

ALTERNATE: Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Honourable Woman.” This is such a juicy role in the vein of a Claire Danes in Homeland plus she’s an Oscar nominated actress, so that might do the trick.