Wednesday, 25 January 2017

Don't forget the flying Unicorns there, Mr Starmer

Labour's Keir Starmer on Labour's wishlist - the great white hope as he is known - on Brexit in The Gaurdian today:

• Jobs and the economy must come first. That is why we have insisted throughout on the importance of tariff- and impediment-free access to the single market – which is crucial for our manufacturing sector – and a deal that works for services as well as goods• All rights enjoyed because of our EU membership over the past 43 years should be preserved in full and without qualification. Those include all workplace rights, and environmental, consumer and human rights- Any new agreement should promote the continuation of collaborative working between the UK and the EU in areas such as science, technology, medicine, crime prevention and counter-terrorism, among other things• There can be no question of implementing the prime minister’s threat to destroy our social model and turn the UK into a tax-haven economy if she fails in negotiations. That would completely undermine social protection and workplace rights.

The UK is such a weird place at the moment. The above list effectively insists we do not leave the EU - all rights enjoyed must remain. These are guaranteed by the European Courts, so in effect we must stay under the jurisdiction of the ECJ and also have free access to the single market which means compliance with the four freedoms and payments to the EU.

This is literally EU membership in all but name. A much worse outcome than we have now or indeed, as Hard Brexit will create.

Not that this matters, the EU WILL DECIDE what we get, not the UK. As has always been the case, hence the Leave vote in the first place. Saying Parliament can have a wishlist is meaningless. All Parliament can do is remoan about how badly talks go with the EU (they will go badly, the EU have been consistent here at national level and in Brussels).

You can add Unicorns, Happiness and Universal Peace to the list - none of that is on the table. Only Hard Brexit is on the table - FROM THE EU.

Of course, perhaps these Labour types are just playing clever and looking for the long-game where they see Hard Brexit as an opportunity for themselves to regain power in 2025. I doubt it, as they have shown to date only pavlovian remoaner responses to all issues re the EU.

Indeed, they should be careful what they wish for, a difficult Parliament ad House of Lords will result in a massive Tory majority at a snap election and much needed reform of the House of Lords by popular mandate.

I saw it differently. Starmer's demands are not actually very different from the government's.

Easy access to the EU market: not membership of.

Rights maintained: the government has said it will transpose them into domestic law "as is". The only real difference will be that the right to work throughout the EU *may* be lost.

Collaboration: of course the UK will collaborate on lost of these things. We collaborate with countries outside the EU on lots of these things already. I can't see counter-terrorism and crime partnerships withering. Universities are surely going to keep sending students between them. I imagine that the UK and rEU will find a sensible arrangement on medicines regulations and approvals (for example) and so on.

Actually the demands seem carefully worded to seem like motherhood and apple pie while being achievable. So when the Tories get most of it they can say "see! Labour effective!".

The government is going for a clean break. The opposition is going to mostly vote with the electorate. Only the SNP and 8 LDs are going to try to hold it up in the Commons. The Lords have no real basis for holding it up.

BE Surely it's the remoaners who are the most pessimistic. According to them leaving the EU is all doom and gloom and we'll be lucky if the sky doesn't fall in. Whereas Brexiteers tend to be optimistic and see fantastic opportunities for UKplc with the freedom to trade as we see fit with none of the restrictions we currently "enjoy".

I think the deal with the EU will be OK. We'll leave the Single Market. Won't join EEA. Any deal will be a bilateral deal and there will be some kind of implementation phase. I reckon 31 December 2020 when we legally leave EU, to give firms time to agree EU/Uk to agree details and to allow everyone time to re-contract and plan.I know I'm a natural optimist, but the discussions I'm having in the City are around what mutual recognition will look like and the confirmation (via the Guardian of all people!) that the EU needs access to the City. Given we have £9bn of net contribution to play with, I think if we put £1bn to European university research or some other cuddly sounding thing we'll get OK deals on access for areas where we think it matters. The lawyers I'm talking with think that the Article 50 negotiations will be QMV. Or at least there's enough ambiguity for the EU (if they want to. And the French and Italians and Dutch will all have new Governments soon)to make any deal by QMV - so any deal won't be held hostage by Wallonia. I voted Remain, but I'm quite sanguine. I think the UK will be fine outside the EU.

On the other hand if they fudge it/ don't leave, we're in 'interesting times' and democracy as we've known it for the last century is no more. I'm hoping that respect for what MPs overwhelmingly signed up to will prevail.

"This is your decision. The government will implement what you decide."

I'm with Blue Eyes. Theresa May has said 'We're leaving the Single Market'. Everything else follows from that. If we're not in the SM, we're not in the EU, period.

So there really isn't an argument with the EU - we don't want to be in the SM, they don't want us in anyway, unless we agree to free movement, which we won't. So thats a done deal. The only point of contention is what sort of free trade deal they will give us - probably they will play hard ball on that, and thats where we walk away 'Up your Delors!'.

The final Brexit terms will be a fait accomplit - there will be no alternative on the table to a Hard Brexit, very possibly with no free trade deal with the EU either. The Tory negotiation team will come back with the square root of f*ck all, and it will be a choice of 'Very well, alone' or go crawling to the EU on hands and knees begging to be taken back. And any political party that thinks the route to power is being seen to beg our neighbours for clemency will get a rapid awakening at the ballot box. The Tories MPs have to take us out of the EU now or they are all toast, Brexiters and Remainers. They know it too, and they will take us out, not because they want to, but because they know they'll be out on their ears if they don't.

perhaps these Labour types are just playing clever and looking for the long-game

well they are certainly trying to - they pile hope upon hope that there is a knock-down piece of political ju-jitsu they can deploy that will guarantee them the next election

implausible:

"No one knows where Labour stands on Brexit. Like most cliches it is true. Labour is for and against free movement. Labour is for full access to the single market and against full access to the single market. Labour will not block article 50 but some of its MPs will vote against. On Europe Labour is in a deep crisis"