Florida prepares for flu pandemic

Governor, leaders look at worst-case scenario

February 17, 2006|By Robyn Shelton, Sentinel Medical Writer

TALLAHASSEE -- Hospitals would be overwhelmed. Schools and day-care centers would be closed. Church services would be held over the radio. Trash pickup and mail delivery would be disrupted, as would electrical power.

One-third of the police force could be out sick, and many ill people would have to care for themselves at home should a new influenza strain, or pandemic, strike Florida.

That bleak picture emerged Thursday at a statewide meeting in Tallahassee to discuss the complex issues that must be addressed before a virulent strain of influenza emerges and affects every aspect of daily life.

Gov. Jeb Bush told 700 health-care, government and law-enforcement workers and others that Florida is better off than most states because residents already know how to prepare for danger with the relentless hurricane seasons of recent years. He said many of the same measures, such as stocking up on food and water, would be needed in a pandemic.

"The good thing about Florida is we have had some practice in this field, and we know how to respond to emergencies more so than most states," he said.

Florida is especially vulnerable to a pandemic because of the high number of tourists who come here from throughout the world, he said.

He and others warned that more planning is needed and that weather disasters, which strike a limited region, are nothing like the global ramifications of a deadly flu outbreak.

Speakers focused on such issues as the role of the Department of Homeland Security during a pandemic and the challenges facing schools and private businesses. They offered few solutions, saying many details must be handled at the local level.

Moreover, no one should expect the federal government to ride in on a white horse and save the day, they said. By their very nature, pandemics affect multiple regions of the world simultaneously, making it necessary for each community to look after its own.

"The reality is that local preparation is the foundation" of the response to a deadly flu outbreak, said Michael Leavitt, U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services. "Any community that fails to prepare with the [idea] that somehow, in the end, the federal government will be able to rescue them will be tragically wrong."

Health officials have no idea when a pandemic might strike, and it could be many decades before the danger materializes. But concerns about a new flu strain have grown in recent weeks as avian flu continues to spread in Asia and Europe.

Avian influenza, or bird flu, is carried by birds and remains mostly a threat to animals. But at least 169 people have become infected with the virus as well. It is extremely deadly, killing half of the people who fall sick. But bird flu has not reached pandemic status because the illness cannot be passed readily from person to person.

No one knows whether the virus will spark the next pandemic, but health officials said communities cannot afford to wait and see what happens.

They urged people to begin working now on many complicated issues.

School officials must begin thinking about when they will need to cancel classes and how to continue lessons even when students remain at home. Education Commissioner John Winn said parents probably will keep their children home from school out of "mortal fear" when one child becomes sick.

He said the state is making plans to teach classes via television and the Internet, even setting the goal of having lesson plans ready by the end of this year for such a situation.

Hospitals must make plans for vaccinating workers and other priority personnel as determined by the government. They need to beef up surveillance and participate in a statewide program that allows hospitals to report the types of symptoms they are seeing in their emergency-room patients as a way to detect disease outbreaks early.

Businesses should consider stocking up on key supplies so they can continue to operate if shipments are stalled by lack of transportation during a pandemic. Utilities and other businesses that provide critical services must make plans on how they will operate under a much-reduced work force (Health officials estimate 30 percent to 50 percent of the work force could be sick at any given time).

Travelers might be restricted from visiting countries where the flu outbreak is occurring.

Families and individuals need to make basic plans and educate themselves on the flu so they will be able to avoid "pandemic panic," Bush said.

People should have canned foods, water and other necessities, such as first-aid supplies. They should think about how they would live if a widespread flu outbreak kept them from working for weeks.

The problems are daunting, but Florida has been working on them to some extent for years, officials said. The state Department of Health began drafting its "pandemic flu plan" in 1998 and is making its 10th revision of the long document. A lot more work lies ahead, however.

"I would say we are very prepared -- maybe 80 or 85 percent of the way there," said Dr. Bonita Sorensen, deputy state health officer with the Florida Department of Health. "Of course, it's that last 15 percent or so that's most challenging that we still need to work on."