Marketed far more on the power of individual stars than any other US team sport, NBA Basketball suffers the most when it lacks those charismatic stars in postseason play.

That's why the NBA is thanking its lucky stars that LeBron James & Kevin Durant are in the 2012 NBA Finals.

1987-1989 were the end of the Magic Johnson/Larry Bird era. 1990 saw an interim year and a ratings low. 1991 began the Michael Jordan championship era, with the Chicago Bulls winning championships in 1991, 1992 and 1993. During Jordan's minor league baseball excursion years of 1994 & 1995, the Hakeem Olajuwon lead Houston Rockets didn't have nearly the star power and ratings crashed again.

Tired of being a mediocre baseball player, Jordan's return brought NBA postseason ratings up again for 1996, 1997 and 1998. His final year being the best finals ratings of his career (and the highest HH ratings we have in our data going back to 1974). Another interim year after Jordan's exit and ratings plunged again. One might have thought that the Kobe/Shaq lead LA Lakers might have raised ratings back to Jordanesqe levels, but they merely halted the decline near the 1990 & 1994 lows from 2000-2002.

Note that while the graph above ends in 2010, the table below is through 2011.

NBA Finals TV Ratings, 1974-2011

Year

Net

Games

HH Rating

HH Share

Average HHs (million)

Average Viewers (million)

Teams

2011

ABC

6

10.1

11.725

17.28

Heat/Mavericks

2010

ABC

7

10.6

18.144

Lakers/Celtics

2009

ABC

5

8.4

9.642

14.347

Lakers/Orlando

2008

ABC

6

9.3

17

10.530

14.941

Boston/Lakers

2007

ABC

4

6.2

11

6.912

9.289

San Antonio/Cleveland

2006

ABC

6

8.5

15

9.332

12.972

Miami/Dallas

2005

ABC

7

8.2

15

8.951

12.544

San Antonio/Detroit

2004

ABC

5

11.5

20

12.451

17.942

Detroit/Lakers

2003

ABC

6

6.5

12

6.955

9.864

San Antonio/New Jersey

2002

NBC

4

10.2

19

10.752

15.678

Lakers/New Jersey

2001

NBC

5

12.1

23

12.390

18.996

Lakers/Philadelphia

2000

NBC

6

11.6

21

11.677

17.402

Lakers/Indiana

1999

NBC

5

11.3

21

11.205

16.014

San Antonio/New York

1998

NBC

6

18.7

33

18.336

29.040

Chicago/Utah

1997

NBC

6

16.8

30

16.291

25.586

Chicago/Utah

1996

NBC

6

16.7

31

16.019

24.858

Chicago/Seattle

1995

NBC

4

13.9

25

13.284

20.078

Houston/Orlando

1994

NBC

5

12.0

23

11.291

17.253

Houston/New York

1993

NBC

6

17.9

33

16.694

27.209

Chicago/Phoenix

1992

NBC

6

14.2

27

13.097

20.838

Chicago/Portland

1991

NBC

5

15.8

32

14.750

23.910

Chicago/Lakers

1990

CBS

5

12.3

25

11.320

17.190

Detroit/Portland

1989

CBS

4

15.1

30

13.620

21.260

Detroit/Lakers

1988

CBS

7

15.4

31

13.620

21.700

Lakers/Detroit

1987

CBS

6

16.7

35

14.600

24.120

Lakers/Boston

1986

CBS

6

14.1

31

14.430

Boston/ Houston

1985

CBS

6

13.5

30

Lakers/Boston

1984

CBS

7

12.1

26

Boston/Lakers

1983

CBS

4

12.3

26

Philadelphia/Lakers

1982

CBS

6

13.0

28

Lakers/Philadelphia

1981

CBS

6

6.7

27

Boston/Houston

1980

CBS

6

8.0

29

Lakers/Philadelphia

1979

CBS

5

7.2

24

Seattle/Washington

1978

CBS

7

9.9

25

Washington/Seattle

1977

CBS

6

12.7

33

Portland/Philadelphia

1976

CBS

6

11.5

29

Boston/Phoenix

1975

CBS

4

10.1

28

6.920

11.380

Golden State/Washington

1974

CBS

7

13.5

32

Boston/Milwaukee

-
Without the Lakers in the finals in 2003, the NBA the San Antonio Spurs/New Jersey Nets finals produced a ratings catastrophe. The return of the Lakers in 2004 brought the finals back to their previous early century ratings. The following two years seemed to establish a new baseline just under 13 million average viewers, a level that would have been considered terrible just 5 years earlier, but probably had David Stern breathing a sigh of relief. That didn't last long when LeBron James, and his otherwise overmatched Cleveland Cavaliers were swept away by the boringly successful San Antonio Spurs taking NBA finals ratings with them to their lowest level in the years for which we have data (1974-).

What does this year's NBA finals ratings picture look like?

Now that the matchup is set, good ratings for ABC hinge on a long series, both because every potential clinching game typically rises in ratings, but also because any NBA Finals game will be far more highly rated than anything else ABC could possibly put on its schedule.

The past 10 NBA Finals have averaged 5.6 games, so let's assume a 6 game series for ratings guessing purposes.

Given a six game series, I'll guess an average viewership of 18 million viewers, slightly more than last season.

I’m going w/19.4 million over 6 games. A 7th game would surely push it over 20 million as it would clear 30 million viewers.

Hillbilly

AppleStinx
Posted June 10, 2012 at 5:54 PM

18.9 million. OKC in 4.

—————–

Welcome back! You musta bumped your head while you were away. OKC in 4? The Heat get at least 2. If they don’t try to run with OKC & play Eastern Conference style basketball (tough physical defense) they might beat OKC.

MoneyCard

OKC are a lot more hated than what people think, people forget this is the team that stole this franchise away from Seattle. There’s a good amount of people who haven’t forgiven their owner for that dirty move but the more hated team is still the Heat at the end of the day.

People will still watch this series in droves because you got for the first time since 1997 two MVP candidates facing off in James and Durant plus this is the Heat’s second go around so 20 million is definitely possible.

Hillbilly

Oops forgot my prediction. For the series (if it goes 6 games) 18 million. A game 7 will get 23 million.

Slappy Go Jacky

@Hillbilly
game 6 last year did 23.880 million.

Sophia

Wish the Lakers were still in it. Hope OKC wins this year, don’t like the Heat.

Hillbilly

Slappy Go Jacky
Posted June 10, 2012 at 9:23 PM

@Hillbilly
game 6 last year did 23.880 million.

—————–

Now you tell me. Looks like I’ll be wrong again.

jim

how ironic that it’s Durant vs Lebron in the NBA Finals. How convenient. NBA is more rigged than Boxing, WWE or horse racing

AppleStinx

Hillbilly wrote: “…Looks like I’ll be wrong again.”

Some things never seem to change…

Mark Wilkins

no way it gets more viewers or 18-49 than a Micheal Jordan finals, but its gonna be the best numbers in the last 13 years

http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

“NBA is more rigged than Boxing, WWE or horse racing”

You forgot to include Nielsen ratings in your conspiracy list.

ZapBob

OKC in 7 games!

Survivor Fan

I think that this is the matchup that will get the highest ratings. I could see 20-22 million for a competitive series. I am not a fan of either team per se (being from Philadelphia), but I respect what the Heat have done and would like them to win. Selfishly, I would like the series to be over in six, because I will be on vacation in a foreign country as of the 25th.

JR

Lol Bill. These conspiracy theories are getting way out of hand

lisa g.

Should be a great series and I expect it to do very well in the ratings just based on Miami’s presence. OKC players aren’t well known but they are a fast, exciting team to watch. Mazel.

lisa g.

Why do ppl respect what the Heat have done? They have done what was expected and more importantly, what they said they would do!

Joseph

Concerning the historical NBA Finals ratings, it should be noted that in 1980, games in Los Angeles began at 11:35 P.M. EDT, and the midweek games in Philadelphia were shown on a tape-delay at 11:30 EDT (except in Philadelphia, where the games were shown live).

In 1981, three of the four weeknight games were shown on tape at 11:30 P.M. EDT.

If my memory serves me correct, only Game 6 aired live in prime-time, but it began at 10:05 P.M. EDT (9:05 P.M. local in Houston, where the game was played), so it would “damage” only one hour of CBS prime-time in the East.

In Boston and Houston (the two cities whose teams were playing), the midweek games were shown live.

The two weekend games of the 1981 Finals were matinees and broadcast live across the full CBS network.

JakeFrankie

Yeah the NBA is so rigged, That’s why the SMALLEST market in the whole league OKC is in the Finals? Makes a lot of sense right? Idiots

If I’m not mistaken the 2011 NBA Finals averaged a 10.2 final series rating rather than a 10.1, The series ratings was higher than first reported.

JR

Why do some think this series will avg over 20 mil? Last season you had the Heat/Mavs. The Dallas Mavs are a top 5 market. OKC is really really small market. I understand the Lebron v. Durant matchup and the fact that the Thunder are way more exciting to watch than the Mavs, that’s why I have this series getting 18+ per game comparede to last years 17+. But to expect over 20 is pushing, wouldn’t you think?