Oscar 2013 Will Win/Should Win Selections (Young)

(The annual “Will Win/Should Win” of the Awards Circuit has been our most popular yet most challenging series where each writer let’s their final thoughts be known on the Oscar categories. Each writer will reveal their choices everyday leading up to the Oscar ceremony. Think you can do better? Let your final thoughts be known in the comment section or by joining our Oscar Pool. -CD)

It’s the most wonderful and stressful time of the year, but hey, it’s the Oscar’s. Now that the Oscar’s are less than a week away, all of us here at the Awards Circuit are scratching our heads trying to figure who the winners will be while hoping our favorites will win. Our predictions change daily and we’re never actually sure who is going to win until that moment before the envelope is opened revealing the winner. Picking the winners can result in quite the headache, but I have to stay, I’m a sucker for The Academy Awards.

Here are my final predictions for the winners of the Academy Awards.

Best Picture:

Will Win: Argo has surprised everybody winning Best Picture at the BFCA, HFPA, SAG, PGA and BAFTA. When Argo first won with the Critics many thought it was because the Critics loved it, and then when it went on to win Best Picture at the Golden Globes over Lincoln, we knew it was serious. When SAG rolled around and Argo won Best Ensemble over Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, we knew voters loved this historical film and we were looking at our Best Picture winner. Ben Affleck getting snubbed for Best Director is probably the best thing that could have happened for Argo’s best picture chances. Argo has dominated the precursors and is the film to beat.

Should Win: This year I fell in love with Ben Affleck’s ability to create suspense in Argo and was blown away with the acting ensemble in Silver Linings Playbook. This year I learned to really enjoy history watching Lincoln and I took joy in Quentin Tarintino’s version of slavery in Django Unchained. I was heartbroken by the love displayed in Amour and fully engaged in the sadness of Les Miserables. This year Ang Lee proved once again he’s a brilliant director bringing Life of Pi to the big screen and was impressed with first time director Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Wild. Lastly, this year my questions were answered about the discovery of Osama bin Laden in the most fascinating way in Zero Dark Thirty.

I enjoyed each nominated film, some more than others, but the film I believe should win Best Picture is Zero Dark Thirty. I loved Argo and Silver Linings Playbook very much, but Zero Dark Thirty is a well-crafted film that deserves to be honored and remembered.

Should Have Been Nominated: When it comes to the Best Picture field I feel The Impossible, Moonrise Kingdomand The Perks of Being a Wallflower should have been recognized. In other categories Moonrise Kingdom and The Impossible have been recognized, but what blows my mind is how almost every award branch completely shut out The Perks of Being a Wallflower. Wallflower is in my opinion the best film of 2012. It had more heart than any other film released last year and was crafted with such care and love. This film should have been nominated for Best Picture and it’s terrible that it was ignored.

Best Director:

Will Win: It’s hard to say who will win in this category when we’ve seen Ben Affleck win every Directing award. Since Affleck’s snub, I have felt very strongly about Ang Lee’s ability to win Best Director for Life of Pi. Many said Life of Pi was an impossible book to adapt, but Ang Lee had a vision and he brought it to life beautifully. With that kind of reputation following the book and movie around, Ang Lee has a shot at winning his second Directing Oscar.

Should Win:Life of Pi is a film that is consumed with special effects, and in recent years when haven’t seen a director who filmed primarily with special effects honored with this award and I think that’s a good thing. Film is a wonderful peice of art but sometimes you don’t need all that hoopla to tell a great story. Steven Spielberg made a wonderful and intriguing film about one of the most loved presidents and he should win his third directing Oscar along with his leading man.

Should Have Been Nominated: After I saw Argo opening day, I called my best friend and told her Argo will earn Ben Affleck his first nomination for Best Director. After squealing for a while and talking about how awesome it would be if he won, it began to really sink in that he would finally be honored, especially after proving his great direction wasn’t a fluke with The Town. Nominations morning I was beyond disappointed with his omission because I thought he had done something truly spectacular with Argo. And to add on to that disappointment, another film I found amazing had earned a nomination for Best Picture but not Best Director. That director is Kathryn Bigelow. Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow deserve to be nominated this year, and it’s a damn shame they were left out.

Best Actor:

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis has become one of those actors known for completely disappearing into a role. He’s an acting force and Lincoln will be the film that earns Daniel Day-Lewis his third Oscar for Best Actor. Before the film’s release, we all knew he would receive another Oscar nomination. When the film was released we knew the race was over and he would win his third Oscar. He’s won every major award and there’s nothing stopping him from Oscar.

Should Win: If this was any other year and Daniel Day-Lewis wasn’t in the mix, I would say Bradley Cooper deserves to win hands down. But seeing as how that’s not the case and Day-Lewis is soaking up all the attention with his marvelous talent, he deserves to win. He disappeared into the role of Abraham Lincoln and you couldn’t help but fall in love with the guy. Daniel Day-Lewis is an unbelievable actor and he deserves every award he’s receiving for his performance in Lincoln.

Should Have Been Nominated: How could the Academy not nominate John Hawkes for his role in The Sessions? Did voters not receive their copy of the film in the mail and just forget to watch the film? Well, obviously not given Helen Hunt got nominated, but come on! John Hawkes has a way of finding these unusual characters and bringing them to life and he shined as a disabled man trying to find love. Another actor who should have been recognized at some point this awards season is Logan Lerman for his incredibly heartfelt performance in The Perks of Being a Wallflower.

Best Actress:

Will Win: It’s the race between Jennifer Lawrence and Emmanuelle Riva. Jennifer Lawrence has won Best Actress at the HFPA and SAG for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook, but Emmanuelle Riva upset at BAFTA for her role in Amour. It’s crazy to think the race has come down to two women; one who has received very little attention for her role, while the other has won two major awards and is in one of the most loved films of the year. I could be ballsy and say Emmanuelle Riva will win based on her one win, I could also do the same for Jessica Chastain, but Jennifer Lawrence will win. Her campaign is too strong to be ignored and Oscar voters have made it very clear how much the adore Silver Linings Playbook.

Should Win: I think Jennifer Lawrence is an up and coming talent and she will have a great future in this business, but she doesn’t deserve to win Best Actress for Silver Linings Playbook. Jessica Chastain gave an outstanding performance and carried Zero Dark Thirty with such determination and strength proving she is the actress we will be talking about in years to come. It’s a shame Zero Dark Thirty is receiving so much backlash over such nonsense, because Chastain could have dominated this awards season.

Should Have Been Nominated: In previous posts I had stated that Rachel Wiesz, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren and Marion Cotillard were snubbed, but now that I’m sitting here thinking about it, every actress nominated deserves to be. I can’t think of one actress I would substitute for another. I’m sure many readers will disagree with me and argue that one of the four actress listed above should be nominated, but this was a weak year for lead female performances and the five actresses deserve their nominations.

Best Supporting Actor:

Will Win: Most years we are so spoiled in this category because there’s always a clear frontrunner. This year we’re being thrown for a loop because three of the five actors nominated have won something for their performance. Phillip Seymour Hoffman won for The Master at the BFCA, Christoph Waltz won for Django Unchained at the HFPA and BAFTA and Tommy Lee Jones won for Lincoln at SAG. With those three actors walking away with wins and no clear frontrunner, many believe Robert DeNiro will win the Oscar for Silver Linings Playbook. With all the campaigning on Robert DeNiro’s side and all the love Silver Linings Playbook has been receiving, I have to assume Robert DeNiro will win the Oscar over Waltz and Jones.

Should Win: I believe whole heartedly that each actor nominated deserves to win. I think it’s fantastic there isn’t a frontrunner in this category because it’s exciting to see that even voters don’t know who gave the best performance. I enjoyed Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained the most, and Waltz is who I voted for in our Circuit Awards, but the more I look back at Silver Linings Playbook there more I believe Robert DeNiro should win. In each scene his character caused anger, awkwardness, love and tension and nobody could have pulled that off like DeNiro did. I guess like the Academy I also have a soft spot for Silver Linings Playbook.

Should Have Been Nominated: If Leonardo DiCarpio was nominated for Django Unchained, you wouldn’t be able to get me to shut up about how much he deserves to win Best Supporting Actor. That scene in Django Unchained when he finds out he’s being played for a fool during dinner is the best scene in the film because of his psychotic rage. He’s a magnificent actor and I don’t understand why the Academy continues to ignore his work. Speaking of Django, Samuel L. Jackson is another outspoken actor who deserved to be listed above.

If there was one thing I am disappointed with when it comes to Argo is that Alan Arkin earned a nomination over John Goodman. I’m not one to condone career nominations or wins, but Arkin already received his Oscar and John Goodman deserved the nomination more.

Best Supporting Actress:

Will Win: This category has been locked up for Anne Hathaway since before Les Miserables was released and with BFCA, HFPA, SAG and BAFTA wins under her belt, she’s in position to win her first Oscar.

Should Win: It seems lately there’s been a bit of backlash regarding Anne Hathaway’s performance in Les Miserables. In the beginning of the season a majority of viewers were 100% behind Hathaway getting nominated and winning, but now that she’s won every major award I’ve noticed people are turning against her. And I don’t understand that. Everybody knows that Hathaway belted out a heartbreaking rendition of “I Dreamed a Dream”, but what most seem to forget is the heartache that went into that scene that causes audiences to cry with her. I know we’re all getting a little annoyed seeing the same scene played over and over at each award ceremony, but she completely lost herself in her role as Fantine and didn’t hold back one bit. Anne Hathaway deserves to win this Oscar.

Should Have Been Nominated: Kerry Washington and Samantha Barks both deserved nominations for their work in DjangoUnchained and Les Miserables. Both were overshadowed by their costars performances and had no shot of making it through.

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino’sDjango Unchained has won the most awards of the nominated five so far, so it’s only fair for me to assume it will win. The only issue I have with Tarantino winning this award is that Django Unchained has the same concept of his previous film Inglorious Basterds. I won’t be disappointed if Tarantino wins this award, I’d only be disappointed that the Academy felt this script was superior to Inglorious Basterds when it isn’t.

Should Win: The importance of Zero Dark Thirty, the originality of Django Unchained and the quirkiness of Moonrise Kingdom deserve to win. But Zero Dark Thirtydeserves to win more than the rest, despite the backlash it’s receiving. When you write a screenplay about a major event in history you have to make it as accurate as possible. Mark Boal didn’t hold back from telling the truth about the capturing of Osama bin Laden.

Should Have Been Nominated: End of Watchis one of the better films I saw last year and I was shocked when no awards branch chose to honor it. Screenwriter David Ayer tells the story of two cops who consider each other brothers and how they spend their day to day life at work. The film is gripping, humorous and heart pounding and what made the film memorable to me was the realness of the story. There were certain aspects of the story that may have been stretched, but you can’t fake the relationship built overtime when you’re someone’s partner. (Spoiler!) Jake Gyllenhaal’s line “He was my brother.” during the funeral scene has stuck with me since watching the film. And when a simple line can’t leave your mind, you know you’ve been affected by a great piece of work.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Will Win: Originally I had Silver Linings Playbook down to win, call me crazy but I did. After winning at the Writers Guild, Chris Terrio’s adapted scrennplay of Argo seems to be the frontrunner to win this award.

Should Win: Chris Terrio’s adaptation of Argo kept my attention the whole way through. Just like Affleck, he built suspense in his writing and made you believe that those hostages wouldn’t make it to safety even though we knew the truth already. Not many people knew the fine details on what really happened, and Chris Terrio adapted the story in most interesting and suspenseful way.

Should Have Been Nominated: Why has nobody said one word about Joss Whedon’s film adaptation of The Avengers? I think it’s pretty simple to take one book and turn it into a screenplay, but this guy had a difficult tast writing the voice of numerous characters that have their own comic books and their own movies that were written by many different people. Joss Whedon had to form this screenplay and get the voice of these characters just right so it would honor not just the comic books but the character’s previous films. He wrote this monumental film that had so much excitement built up and he didn’t let down. He did such a great job that fan boys all around want him to write all future Marvel scripts. Joss Whedon is a genius.

Most authors have a very difficult time adapting their novels into a screenplay. And it’s funny, because who better to adapt the story to screen than the author. Stephen Chbosky wrote a beautiful film version of The Perks of Being a Wallflower with such passion and care. He was so close to getting nominated and missed it.

Best Animated Feature:

Will Win:Brave is so beautifully animated, but Wreck it Ralph is far better and more original. Wreck it Ralph won at PGA and is in good position to win Best Animated Feature.

Should Win:Wreck it Ralph is by far one of the most original animated films I’ve seen in a long time. I loved the animation in Brave, but it’s about the animation and the story and Wreck it Ralph is a better film.

And now, the rest of the categories:

Best Cinematography:Will Win: Life of PiShould Win: SkyfallShould Have Been Nominated:Zero Dark Thirty

Best Costume Design:Will Win: Anna KareninaShould Win:Anna KareninaShould Have Been Nominated: A Royal Affair

Best Film Editing:Will Win:ArgoShould Win:Zero Dark ThirtyShould Have Been Nominated: End of Watch

Best Foreign Language Film:Will Win:AmourShould Win: A Royal AffairShould Have Been Nominated: Holy Motors

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:Will Win:The Hobbit: An Unexpected JourneyShould Win:Les MiserablesShould Have Been Nominated: Lincoln

Best Original Score:Will Win:Life of PiShould Win:ArgoShould Have Been Nominated: Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song:Will Win:SkyfallShould Win:SkyfallShould Have Been Nominated: Django Unchained – “Who Did That to You?”

Best Production Design:Will Win:LincolnShould Win:LincolnShould Have Been Nominated: Moonrise Kingdom

Best Sound Editing:Will Win:Life of PiShould Win:Zero Dark ThirtyShould Have BeenNominated: The Avengers

Best Sound Mixing:Will Win:SkyfallShould Win:Les MiserablesShould Have Been Nominated: The Avengers

What do you think?

I’ve grown up always being able to share my love of film with others. What makes it particularly important to me is that my passion started with my parents and my best friend Caitlin. Whether it has been spending the whole day at the theater with my parents, or sitting on the floor of a movie store for hours with Caitlin, this love of mine has always been a huge part of who I am. This love affair has been going strong for over a decade. My name is Anna and I’m in love with film.