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U.S. Open should be in the bag for Rory McIlroy

BETHESDA, Md. – Rory McIlroy’s final-round of the U.S. Open is going to be either a highly anticipated coronation or an eye-averting collapse.

McIlroy, the 22-year-old wunderkind from Northern Irleand, heads into the final round with an eight-shot lead at 14-under par.

McIlroy has shown complete command of his game over three rounds of the U.S. Open – the tournament that will expose and exploit a player’s weaknesses in the blink of an eye.

McIlroy has blinked twice in 54 holes – a double bogey to close Friday’s second-round 66 and on the 10th hole Saturday on his way to a three-under 68.

If McIlroy plays well, he will shattered the scoring and join Tiger Woods as the only player to win the U.S. Open by a double-digit margin. Woods set the mark at 12 under to win by an unprecedented 15 stroke in 2000 at Pebble Beach.

If McIroy plays reasonably well, he should win, unless someone threatens the one-round scoring record of 63 in soft conditions at Congressional Country Club.

A light rain is falling again and will make for receptive scoring. This seems to play into the hands of McIlroy, who leads the field in greens in regulation (46 of 54 – 85.19%).

But McIlroy must show he can hold a Sunday lead, given two months ago he blew a four-shot advantage after 54 holes at the Masters. McIlroy shot 80 to finish nine shots behind winner Charl Schwartzel and earn a reputation as someone who can’t close.

History favors McIlroy today.

The build-up to the final round likely has been an exercise in futility as people look to build tension.

For example, eight-time major winner Tom Watson’s U.S. Open collapses – as a 24- and 25-year-old – at Winged Foot in 1974 and Medinah in 1975 were recalled.

Bottom line, no man has ever blown a lead bigger than six shots in the final round of a major.

No man has ever blown a lead bigger than five in the final round of a U.S. Open.