I was hoping you might share some insight into the source of the
considerably higher number of seats for Bayit Yehudi in the Geocartography
poll as compared to polls published this past week by other pollsters.

I was wondering, for example, if this is the result of using a more
effective methodology for determining how the "undecided" respondents will
vote.

With your permission I would distribute your reply.

Best regards,
Aaron
Dr. Aaron Lerner - www.imra.org.il

-----

Reply from Prof. Degani:

Dear Dr. Lerner,

Your questions regard the matter of differences between polls which are
published at the same time.

There could be a number of reasons for that:

1. I suspect that the two polls published by Jerusalem Post were not
conducted on the same day - mine probably later , and the Likud+ Israel
Beitenu lost support gradually in time but sharply during last week.
Simultaneously, and related in reason, jumped the Bayit Yehudi +Ichud Leumi
(Naftali Bennet) from 12 to 16.

2. There is the "statistical error" +/- 4.1%

3. Poll makers may treat, or not treat, 'level of certainty' by voters in
whatever they just said in 'voting' in the survey

4. Differences may occur due to different treatment of the percentages of
all those who say "undecided" or refuse to say, etc..

5. Very different figures may result from different treatment of the lost
votes of parties which did not pass the 2% threshold.

6. On top of all these there is a large number of methodological issues
which might affect + quality of info systems, etc..