James O'Brien

Hockey Daily Dose

Fasth threatens Hiller's job

Over and over again, I preach patience. That might make this fantasy advice column seem like a broken record, but really, when it comes to the hobby's biggest transactions, I instead like to spin two (seemingly) contradictory tracks:

1. Don’t trade your struggling stars, especially when they’re slumping and their value is low. (It’s a toe-tapper.)2. Feel free to add the next hot thing from the waiver wire.

The reasoning for this two-pronged approach is pretty simple, but worth reviewing.

(Before I do that, do note that you can purchase Rotoworld’s Season Pass by clicking here and remember it’s not too late to join a league and play Yahoo! hockey. Anyway…)

You start off drafting a team, and maybe for the first 5-8 rounds, you stick to a blueprint. Even if your plans circle the drain because of clever competitors, you still should have selected the players you expect to be difference-makers.

While later rounds can produce plenty of gems, you’d probably be pushing the limits of your credibility to say that they’re comparable bets to the guys you selected early on. Typically, at least a chunk of your later picks are the ones you can fire away in trades or dump into free agency without feeling much remorse.

With that in mind, there’s nothing wrong with dropping such filler for a guy on a hot streak, even if I’ve raised doubts about that player. (Why not scuttle a disappointing fringe guy for Saku Koivu, who has had insane luck in the form of four goals on eight shots but has 11 points nonetheless?)

This is all a long way of saying go ahead … pick up Viktor Fasth in exchange for some guy who’s not really producing much for your team. Worst case scenario, you can drop Fasth later on for another fringe guy/flavor of the month. (Heck, you might even get that hypothetical fringe guy back.)

Who knows if he really can swipe Jonas Hiller's job, but crazier things have happened. Hiller has the remainder of this season plus 2013-14 left on his contract, in case you think that might factor into the decision making.

Fasth is a rare bird: a 30-year-old “rookie” goalie. Let’s dig a bit to see if his blazing 4-0-0 start (with an unbelievable .962 save percentage and 0.98 GAA) is the sign of a strong year or a tantalizing tease.

During the last two seasons, he put up fantastic numbers for AIK in the Swedish Elite League. He generated a .924 save percentage in 2010-11 and a .931 save percentage last season, making it more than reasonable for the Ducks to roll the dice on him.

Considering Fasth’s Swedish roots and import status, one might compare him to Jonas “The Monster” Gustavsson. Still, I cannot help but tempt you with a more out-of-left-field comparison: Tim Thomas.

I’ll admit this exercise represents a stretch, but it’s a fun one, so humor me for a moment.

Age is one parallel that springs to mind. While Fasth cracked an NHL lineup for the first time at 30, Tim Thomas received his first real chance to be a regular at 31. (He played a few games at 28, but bounced around overseas again before getting a more legitimate opportunity.)

Conventional wisdom likely would have dictated that Thomas was a mere flash in the pan; after all, the cream has to rise sooner than age 31, right? Instead, the Slinky-spined oddity in goalie pads could only really be stopped by himself.

As opposed to Gustavsson’s monster frame, both Fasth and Thomas are smaller than what many believe is the ideal size for a netminder. They’re not exactly overcoming a Doug Flutie-like hurdle, but it’s another shared trait.

The most enjoyable coincidence: both goalies have played for AIK. Thomas did it way back in 2000-01 while Fasth just finished the past two seasons.

Does that mean Fasth is the next Thomas? The odds are still against him, but you’d be silly not to gamble a roster spot on that happening. Again, dropping a faltering Fasth for your next get-fantasy-rich-quick-scheme isn’t a terrible worst-case scenario.

Continue after the jump for another Dosage.

Over and over again, I preach patience. That might make this fantasy advice column seem like a broken record, but really, when it comes to the hobby's biggest transactions, I instead like to spin two (seemingly) contradictory tracks:

1. Don’t trade your struggling stars, especially when they’re slumping and their value is low. (It’s a toe-tapper.)2. Feel free to add the next hot thing from the waiver wire.

The reasoning for this two-pronged approach is pretty simple, but worth reviewing.

(Before I do that, do note that you can purchase Rotoworld’s Season Pass by clicking here and remember it’s not too late to join a league and play Yahoo! hockey. Anyway…)

You start off drafting a team, and maybe for the first 5-8 rounds, you stick to a blueprint. Even if your plans circle the drain because of clever competitors, you still should have selected the players you expect to be difference-makers.

While later rounds can produce plenty of gems, you’d probably be pushing the limits of your credibility to say that they’re comparable bets to the guys you selected early on. Typically, at least a chunk of your later picks are the ones you can fire away in trades or dump into free agency without feeling much remorse.

With that in mind, there’s nothing wrong with dropping such filler for a guy on a hot streak, even if I’ve raised doubts about that player. (Why not scuttle a disappointing fringe guy for Saku Koivu, who has had insane luck in the form of four goals on eight shots but has 11 points nonetheless?)

This is all a long way of saying go ahead … pick up Viktor Fasth in exchange for some guy who’s not really producing much for your team. Worst case scenario, you can drop Fasth later on for another fringe guy/flavor of the month. (Heck, you might even get that hypothetical fringe guy back.)

Who knows if he really can swipe Jonas Hiller's job, but crazier things have happened. Hiller has the remainder of this season plus 2013-14 left on his contract, in case you think that might factor into the decision making.

Fasth is a rare bird: a 30-year-old “rookie” goalie. Let’s dig a bit to see if his blazing 4-0-0 start (with an unbelievable .962 save percentage and 0.98 GAA) is the sign of a strong year or a tantalizing tease.

During the last two seasons, he put up fantastic numbers for AIK in the Swedish Elite League. He generated a .924 save percentage in 2010-11 and a .931 save percentage last season, making it more than reasonable for the Ducks to roll the dice on him.

Considering Fasth’s Swedish roots and import status, one might compare him to Jonas “The Monster” Gustavsson. Still, I cannot help but tempt you with a more out-of-left-field comparison: Tim Thomas.

I’ll admit this exercise represents a stretch, but it’s a fun one, so humor me for a moment.

Age is one parallel that springs to mind. While Fasth cracked an NHL lineup for the first time at 30, Tim Thomas received his first real chance to be a regular at 31. (He played a few games at 28, but bounced around overseas again before getting a more legitimate opportunity.)

Conventional wisdom likely would have dictated that Thomas was a mere flash in the pan; after all, the cream has to rise sooner than age 31, right? Instead, the Slinky-spined oddity in goalie pads could only really be stopped by himself.

As opposed to Gustavsson’s monster frame, both Fasth and Thomas are smaller than what many believe is the ideal size for a netminder. They’re not exactly overcoming a Doug Flutie-like hurdle, but it’s another shared trait.

The most enjoyable coincidence: both goalies have played for AIK. Thomas did it way back in 2000-01 while Fasth just finished the past two seasons.

Does that mean Fasth is the next Thomas? The odds are still against him, but you’d be silly not to gamble a roster spot on that happening. Again, dropping a faltering Fasth for your next get-fantasy-rich-quick-scheme isn’t a terrible worst-case scenario.

Continue after the jump for another Dosage.

STARS LIGHT UP

It seems like the Dallas Stars have come to grips with the fact that their 2012-13 season will feature a wave of games with very small margins of error.

That means they’ll lean heavily on Kari Lehtonen, who continues to advance the argument that he’s an elite NHL starter. Still, as great as he has been, he obviously cannot do it alone.

It’s early, but they might have stumbled on a solid little first line in Jamie Benn, Jaromir Jagr and Brenden Morrow. Benn is no surprise; he really just needed to shake off the rust. Jagr’s Hall of Fame instincts compelled many to believe that he would make the most of his time with Benn, much like he did with Claude Giroux last season, and that might be so.

The interesting wildcard is Morrow, though. Earlier this week, I casted serious doubt on the Stars captain, but he’s actually showing some life on the top line. (Seriously, I thought he was done.)

Apply the Fasth rule with Morrow if you need some forward help, then: give him a whirl and see if he sticks. He has a history of being a multiple-category performer, and it’s quite possible that the lockout break benefited that beat-up leader. (The Stars saw a surprising resurgence from Mike Modano after the last lockout, by the way.)

Just be mindful of Morrow’s linemates. His value is likely to live and die with them, after all.

Oh, and speaking of being mindful, expensive defenseman Alex Goligoski was scratched Wednesday. That’s odd, but perhaps it was just a wakeup call situation.

DON’T BLAME DUCHENE

I don’t know if it’s his frequently-noted Gluten-free diet or what, but Matt Duchene really is making a big difference so far this season. (My hypothesis is that he woke up one day and said to himself, “How did my team give David Jones a longer contract that pays more per season?”)

Whatever the reason may be, Duchene is looking like the guy some believed should have been the No. 1 pick in 2009 instead of John Tavares and Victor Hedman.

He didn’t collect a point on Wednesday, yet the 22-year-old’s efforts were clear. He went 16-6 in the faceoff circle and fired four shots on goal in that 3-0 loss to Fasth and the Anaheim Ducks. Overall, he has nine points in 10 games. He's only connected on 6.9 percent of his 29 SOG, so it's not as if he's just getting lucky, either.

I’m not saying a point-per-game should be expected, but considering his talent, it wouldn’t be that surprising.

Brandon Dubinsky was fined, but not suspended, for boarding Rob Scuderi … Looks like Cory Schneider will get the call instead of Roberto Luongo on Thursday … Who knows when Wayne Simmonds might be healthy enough to play again, but at least he resumed skating with the Philadelphia Flyers … Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sat out Wednesday’s game with a shoulder injury, but it doesn’t seem too severe … The New Jersey Devils traded for Andrei Loktionov. Considering their popgun offense, he could actually get some serious reps, but I’d wait to see where he fits in. Especially since fitting in might mean playing in the AHL for a while longer … Speaking of trades, I’d also avoid getting too excited about the Ben Lovejoy era in Anaheim … Good news: it sounds like Miikka Kiprusoff’s knee injury is minor … Can we stop worrying about Tyler Seguin, please? He had a goal and an assist last night … P.K. Subban scored a goal and played 21+ minutes on Wednesday. Promising … Uh, how does Ryan O’Reilly still not have a contract? I’d love to find out how big the gulf really is between those two sides.