Don't let it get away!

The only thing certain about Clearwire (Nasdaq: CLWR) is how it was formed. Its future is anyone's guess. The company, as we know it today, is the spawn of the 2008 marriage between the spectrum-rich original Clearwire and Sprint Nextel's (NYSE: S) WiMAX business. Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) were also partners in the venture.

Sprint had linked its growth as a smartphone provider to early adoption of 4G broadband wireless, and it placed its bet on WiMAX 4G technology with Clearwire providing the network.

But it looks now like Sprint put its money on the wrong long-term 4G technology. In an industry where speed is king, LTE 4G now rules, not WiMAX. So in July, Sprint signed a $9 billion with LTE provider LightSquared. Clearwire's shares fell significantly on that news.

That must have been quite a disappointment for Clearwire, especially after Sprint agreed in April to pay it $1 billion through the end of 2012. Sprint still has a need to service its present WiMAX customers. Indeed, Sprint CEO Dan Hesse told listeners of the second-quarter earnings call that it even added 1.7 million WiMAX subscribers that quarter. But even so, it's obvious that its long-term 4G commitment will be with LTE.

I'm behind you 49.8%It's obvious, too, that for Clearwire to stay alive, it will have to change horses and become an LTE network provider. But to do that, Clearwire says it will need to borrow an additional $600 million to add to its present $4 billion pile of long-term debt. Even without growing into an LTE network, the company would also need another $150 million to $300 million just to upgrade its present WiMAX network.

That's money that Clearwire would have to borrow, and even Sprint, as its majority owner and biggest wholesale customer, is not exactly pushing to the front of the lending line. In fact, when Clearwire borrowed $1.33 billion last December, Sprint did not buy any of that debt. As another little kick in the teeth, Sprint also reduced its holdings in Clearwire's voting shares to just under 50% to minimize its liability in case Clearwire defaults on its loans.

Clearwire's plansWhat Clearwire wants to do is build up what's known as a TDD-LTE network. The TDD stands for time division duoplex. The other flavor of LTE is known as FDD-LTE, or frequency division duoplex, and the different LTEs are not compatible. Verizon's (NYSE: VZ) version of LTE is FDD. AT&T (NYSE: T) has just begun using its 4G FDD-LTE network. What it previously marketed as "4G" was based on HSPA+, which is more of an enhanced version of 3G.

There is always nitpicking among technophiles about which technology is better suited for this or that, but for Clearwire there would be some clear advantages for going with TDD-LTE. The main one would be that its WIMAX system is also TDD-based. That means new TDD-LTE equipment could be combined with Clearwire's present WiMAX equipment, a potential for big cost and time savings.

Another advantage is that China Mobile (NYSE: CHL) , the largest wireless carrier in the world with more than 600 million subscribers, is a proponent of TDD-LTE. Clearwire and China Mobile have just announced a collaborating effort to develop TDD-LTE devices. As yet, there are no commercially available TDD-LTE chipsets, so the economic clout that so many potential customers bring should speed up availability of that equipment.

But wait …It may appear that Sprint is ready to cast Clearwire aside, but LightSquared, Clearwire's apparent replacement, comes with plenty of its own baggage, technical and political.

First, LightSquared is embroiled in a controversy with GPS manufacturers that say its network interferes with their satellite signals. LightSquared has proposed solutions that involve using only parts of its available spectrum, lowering the strength of its signals, and developing special filters for precision GPS receivers. These solutions have not yet been proven to work.

As for politics, LightSquared now has to fight accusations that it tried to use political donations to get the White House to pressure an Air Force general to testify at a congressional hearing that LightSquared poses no real threat to GPS interference. The picture gets murkier and murkier.

The ballad of Clearwire and SprintSprint's own survival has been strongly in question since AT&T proposed acquiring T-Mobile. But now that the Department of Justice has sued to stop the merger on antitrust grounds, Sprint can relax a small bit and maybe even see a ray of sun coming through the clouds.

But the future looks somewhat darker for Clearwire, and out of its own hands to a large part. I think much of how it fares will depend on LightSquared's fate. If LightSquared can't prove it can co-exist with present GPS systems, the FCC won't allow it to operate. That means Sprint will have to look for another 4G LTE provider, and there just happens to be one close at hand.

To keep track of these wireless companies, just add them to your Watchlist.

Comments from our Foolish Readers

Help us keep this a respectfully Foolish area! This is a place for our readers to discuss, debate, and learn more about the Foolish investing topic you read about above. Help us keep it clean and safe. If you believe a comment is abusive or otherwise violates our Fool's Rules, please report it via the Report this Comment icon found on every comment.

Clearwire cannot survive without sprint and sprint cannot survive without Clearwire. I am pretty sure sprint will acquire Clearwire pretty soon, it is just waiting for the right price. Sprint and clearwire combined have over 180 mhz of spectrum. That dwarfs ATT's and Verizon's holdings and even beats the ATT and TMOBILE combination.

Some may argue that Clearwire's 2.5 ghz spectrum is not worth as much as the 700mhz Verizon and ATT have. While the 2.5 does not penetrate buildings as well and requires more towers for the same distance, It can carry more traffic, thus when the spectrum crunch really comes into play verizon and att will have to pay clearwire (or sprint if it acquires them) for use of their network to offload some of their users.

Sprint also has tons of other partners, which will come into effect. It has Comcast, Google, Time Warner, Brighthouse, Lightsquared(along with leap, cellular south and others via Lightsquared), cox, and possibly dish network. With this many companies at its side, I have no doubt sprint will be in a great position.

Clearwire has, what will become, one of the most valuable resources in the wireless industry. Sprint knows it too, but why would they pay more when they could get it for less?

The pieces of the puzzle are beginning to come together. If sprint can get past the next couple years. It will come out smelling like a rose.