Best Picture

Should Win: In a great year for art-meets-commerce, the Academy would be wise to choose any from among Black Swan, Inception, Toy Story 3, or The Social Network. Though not as widely seen, Winter’s Bone would also be an inspired choice.

Will Win: After picking a little-seen critical favorite last year, the Academy will revert to form by picking the safe, tasteful heart-warmer The King’s Speech, whose awards from the producers’, directors’, and actors’ guilds make this all but a done deal.

Best Director

Should Win: For me, no one in this category beats the rapturously bizarre, psychologically complex work of Darren Aronofsky in Black Swan.

Will Win: After the directors’ guild awarded Tom Hooper, it seemed to be the last nail in the coffin for David Fincher, the early favorite, but even the Brits, at the BAFTA Awards, picked Fincher over their hometown favorite (Hooper, a British director making a film all about the British monarchy). I’ll give a very slight edge to Hooper, but hedge your bets.

Best Actress

Should Win: The year’s strongest category. There’s not a bad choice in the bunch, but I’m partial to Natalie Portman, not just for how physically grueling her performance in Black Swan is, but for how emotionally grueling it is.

Will Win: Portman has everything going for her: wins at SAG and BAFTA, her age (young women tend to prevail over veterans in this race), and strong Academy support for her film in general. Nevertheless, watch out for the overdue Annette Bening, who is within striking distance and may potentially upset.

Will Win: … but sadly, Weaver is the only actress in this race with no chance to win. Melissa Leo is the prohibitive favorite, but here’s why I think Hailee Steinfeld will beat her: (1) Leo shot herself in the foot by campaigning for herself in print ads considered by many to be tacky, and (2) the Academy loved True Grit more than most expected, and this is the voters’ only real chance to reward it in one of the top categories.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Another Year ** The Fighter ** Inception ** The Kids Are All Right ** The King’s Speech