Friday, August 19, 2016

Apologize for the delay as I thought I already posted this but here is the final NFL SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) of the
2015 season, including only regular season action – which is same as prior
years.

SBPI: max grade 160: 80 on offense & 80 on defense,
which can be achieved by receiving a perfect grade of “5” in each of the 16 different
statistics tracked on both sides of the ball:

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
TEAM

Blended

Wins

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

SOS

TOM

10

SEA

52.3

1

45.0

3

97.3

1

22

7

13

ARI

51.5

2

44.4

4

96.0

2

28

9

10

NYJ

46.1

9

47.6

2

93.7

3

32

6

15

CAR

49.7

3

43.5

7

93.2

4

29

20

11

KC

46.5

6

43.8

6

90.4

5

4

14

12

NE

46.1

10

43.0

8

89.0

6

26

7

12

CIN

48.3

5

40.2

10

88.4

7

12

11

12

DEN

38.7

24

48.6

1

87.3

8

7

(4)

9

HOU

40.0

22

44.3

5

84.3

9

24

5

10

PIT

44.9

12

38.8

13

83.7

10

10

2

8

BUF

46.3

7

35.9

17

82.2

11

19

6

8

ATL

46.3

7

35.2

21

81.5

12

31

(7)

10

GB

40.3

20

40.3

9

80.7

13

11

5

6

TB

44.8

13

35.4

19

80.2

14

30

(5)

4

SD

42.3

16

37.3

15

79.7

15

14

(4)

7

OAK

39.7

23

39.6

11

79.3

16

3

1

5

BAL

40.1

21

38.9

12

78.9

17

16

(14)

6

CHI

43.4

14

34.9

23

78.3

18

6

(4)

11

MIN

41.8

17

36.1

16

77.8

19

9

5

9

WAS

45.1

11

32.3

27

77.4

20

27

5

7

NO

49.4

4

27.9

32

77.3

21

20

2

7

DET

41.5

18

35.7

18

77.2

22

8

(6)

4

DAL

38.0

25

38.3

14

76.4

23

13

(22)

7

PHI

41.2

19

32.7

25

73.9

24

17

(5)

6

NYG

42.5

15

31.2

29

73.7

25

25

7

8

IND

35.9

29

34.8

24

70.7

26

15

(5)

7

STL

35.3

30

35.3

20

70.7

26

6

5

5

JAC

37.1

26

32.4

26

69.5

28

22

(10)

3

TEN

33.4

31

35.1

22

68.4

29

23

(14)

6

MIA

37.0

27

31.3

28

68.3

30

18

(3)

3

CLE

36.3

28

30.7

30

67.1

31

1

(9)

5

SF

33.2

32

29.7

31

62.9

32

2

(5)

·The Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos finished
the regular season ranked #8 in raw rating; however they faced the 7th
toughest schedule in the NFL (only Kansas City faced a tougher schedule amongst
the top half of the league according to SBPI) which would of course slide their
rating much higher after making that adjustment. In addition they were the only team in the
Top 11 of SBPI to have a negative turnover margin; however, in the playoffs
they were a +4 in that category (+1 in the AFC Divisional vs. Pittsburgh, +1 in
the AFC Championship vs. New England & +2 in the Super Bowl vs. Carolina) –
which was a critical factor in their title run.
Although they struggled mightily on offense for most of the season their
defense checked in at #1, and was the biggest factor in their 3rd
Super Bowl championship.

·NFC Champion Carolina was ranked #4 versus a
very weak schedule; they were also buoyed by a league best +20 in turnover
margin – which is often a red-flag is they do not produce similar results in
the playoffs. In the NFC Divisional vs.
Seattle they were a +2 and won at home by a TD; in the NFC Championship they
were a +6 and hammered the Cardinals, also on their home field. However, in the Super Bowl they turned the
ball over 4 times including a strip sack that was recovered in the end zone for
a Broncos TD, and wound up losing by 14 points on a neutral field. Despite very much looking the part the
Panthers 15-1 mark was largely driven by a favorable schedule & turnover
margin – two key factors to always keep an eye on when handicapping the NFL
Playoffs.

·The NY Jets finished the season at #3 in the
SBPI yet failed to earn a playoff berth; their 10-6 record was tied with
Pittsburgh however the Steelers had the tiebreakers fall their way, leaving the
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets out of the dance.

·In the NFC the highest rated team to miss the
playoffs believe it or not was the Atlanta Falcons, who checked in at #12 in
the SBPI but posted just an 8-8 record, 2 games behind the pair of Wild Card
teams from their conference.

·By referencing the SBPI rankings, then adjusting
for SOS & TOM followed by comparing that to actual wins you can identify
teams to be bullish or bearish on heading into the 2016 campaign. For example the Texans, Bills and
aforementioned Falcons could surprise people next year in a good way while the
Vikings, Redskins and Dolphins could be on alert for not performing as well as
their 2015 record indicated (of course you have to keep in mind roster moves
made during the offseason).

Next up let’s examine the divisional ratings (as a reminder
these are simply a sum of each teams SBPI ranking):

Rating

NFL

AW

44

1

AE

50

2

NS

51

3

NW

61

4

AN

65

5

NN

72

6

NE

92

7

AS

92

7

The AFC West was the top division according to SBPI last
year, which is very interesting since those teams played very tough
schedules. Here is a breakdown:

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
TEAM

Blended

Wins

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

SOS

TOM

11

KC

46.5

6

43.8

6

90.4

5

4

14

12

DEN

38.7

24

48.6

1

87.3

8

7

(4)

4

SD

42.3

16

37.3

15

79.7

15

14

(4)

7

OAK

39.7

23

39.6

11

79.3

16

3

1

All four teams ranked inside the top half of the NFL on a
non-SOS adjusted basis; if you then reference their blended SOS’s it shows
three of the four teams faced a Top 7 schedule, with San Diego rounding out the
weakest schedule in the division – which was the 14th toughest in
the NFL! Each team also ranked in the
Top half of the league on defense & only one team received a noteworthy
boost from TOM. Although San Diego
appears to be a team heading down the other three teams are headed up and
should make this division tough next year & in the near future.

The AFC South, a division most would say is the worst in
football, checked in tied for worst with the NFC East. The AFC South was “helped” by the Texans in
the 9th slot; the NFC East’s top team according to SBPI was the
Redskins who ranked 20th!

Opponents, home/away splits and schedules play a critical
role in success for teams each season – becoming familiar with these variables
heading into a new season is paramount to molding your thoughts of each team.

Last
analysis is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair
of numbers: one measures team performance (SBPI) while the second measures team
performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and
combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.