A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

Sunday, November 09, 2014

In depth elections report - 2014

It wasn't quite as much of a blowout as some thought. A lot of the education board seats were thought to be won by the GOP until the next morning - when Wayne County came in. Melanie Foster won her seat back on MSU, but that was about it. Jeff Sakwa's loss hurt (and surprised me). He would have done a great job there. I'd like to see the straight ticket level taken out. End it. It helps to an extent in Livingston County, but hurts us all statewide.

Snyder won with 50.92% Schauer got 46.86% 128,130 vote spread. It was 54% most of the night, but Wayne County came in and made it closer than it looked - and made the spread in the end close to a lot of the actual pills. 4%. Bill Schuette and Ruth Johnson both won re-election as well.

Totals

1,605,034

1,476,904

3,151,835

50.92%

46.86%

128,130

Snyder

Schauer

TOTAL

Snyder

Schauer

Vote Spread

70 OTTAWA

65,889

21,954

89,543

73.58%

24.52%

43,935

47
LIVINGSTON

47,110

21,484

70,019

67.28%

30.68%

25,626

03
ALLEGAN

23,301

11,187

35,452

65.73%

31.56%

12,114

57
MISSAUKEE

3,209

1,541

4,884

65.70%

31.55%

1,668

08 BARRY

12,821

6,757

20,057

63.92%

33.69%

6,064

76
SANILAC

7,986

4,288

12,642

63.17%

33.92%

3,698

12 BRANCH

7,044

3,905

11,283

62.43%

34.61%

3,139

30
HILLSDALE

8,308

4,598

13,312

62.41%

34.54%

3,710

41 KENT

116,969

67,293

188,381

62.09%

35.72%

49,676

24 EMMET

8,065

4,580

13,023

61.93%

35.17%

3,485

62
NEWAYGO

8,980

5,031

14,528

61.81%

34.63%

3,949

05 ANTRIM

5,880

3,406

9,517

61.78%

35.79%

2,474

75 ST.
JOSEPH

9,127

5,310

14,909

61.22%

35.62%

3,817

56
MIDLAND

17,699

10,607

29,056

60.91%

36.51%

7,092

32 HURON

7,141

4,378

11,831

60.36%

37.00%

2,763

64 OCEANA

4,999

3,045

8,284

60.35%

36.76%

1,954

69 OTSEGO

4,777

2,972

7,969

59.94%

37.29%

1,805

67
OSCEOLA

4,337

2,642

7,238

59.92%

36.50%

1,695

15
CHARLEVOIX

6,255

3,998

10,549

59.29%

37.90%

2,257

22
DICKINSON

5,053

3,376

8,603

58.74%

39.24%

1,677

83
WEXFORD

5,868

3,835

10,041

58.44%

38.19%

2,033

28 GD.
TRAVERSE

19,461

12,992

33,366

58.33%

38.94%

6,469

34 IONIA

10,422

7,091

18,005

57.88%

39.38%

3,331

40
KALKASKA

3,330

2,202

5,779

57.62%

38.10%

1,128

59
MONTCALM

9,866

6,686

17,166

57.47%

38.95%

3,180

44 LAPEER

17,023

11,613

29,625

57.46%

39.20%

5,410

42
KEWEENAW

639

444

1,114

57.36%

39.86%

195

01 ALCONA

2,529

1,806

4,466

56.63%

40.44%

723

45
LEELANAU

6,172

4,600

11,006

56.08%

41.80%

1,572

14 CASS

7,520

5,425

13,419

56.04%

40.43%

2,095

55
MENOMINEE

3,634

2,728

6,498

55.92%

41.98%

906

20
CRAWFORD

2,656

1,962

4,758

55.82%

41.24%

694

11
BERRIEN

24,173

18,042

43,479

55.60%

41.50%

6,131

63
OAKLAND

247,863

191,341

446,616

55.50%

42.84%

56,522

54
MECOSTA

6,491

4,854

11,697

55.49%

41.50%

1,637

38
JACKSON

24,881

18,995

44,854

55.47%

42.35%

5,886

74 ST.
CLAIR

28,399

21,306

51,232

55.43%

41.59%

7,093

80 VAN
BUREN

12,310

9,250

22,228

55.38%

41.61%

3,060

16
CHEBOYGAN

5,288

4,007

9,582

55.19%

41.82%

1,281

79
TUSCOLA

9,412

7,188

17,142

54.91%

41.93%

2,224

19
CLINTON

15,939

12,722

29,109

54.76%

43.70%

3,217

48 LUCE

1,046

810

1,913

54.68%

42.34%

236

53 MASON

5,455

4,330

10,063

54.21%

43.03%

1,125

60
MONTMORENCY

1,912

1,497

3,540

54.01%

42.29%

415

68 OSCODA

1,498

1,158

2,778

53.92%

41.68%

340

35 IOSCO

5,089

4,054

9,442

53.90%

42.94%

1,035

31
HOUGHTON

5,581

4,449

10,358

53.88%

42.95%

1,132

50 MACOMB

142,830

116,644

265,090

53.88%

44.00%

26,186

13
CALHOUN

20,425

16,704

37,962

53.80%

44.00%

3,721

46
LENAWEE

15,574

12,664

29,071

53.57%

43.56%

2,910

36 IRON

2,262

1,839

4,223

53.56%

43.55%

423

49
MACKINAC

2,231

1,870

4,190

53.25%

44.63%

361

26
GLADWIN

4,579

3,735

8,606

53.21%

43.40%

844

10 BENZIE

3,823

3,183

7,227

52.90%

44.04%

640

72
ROSCOMMON

4,861

4,070

9,204

52.81%

44.22%

791

21 DELTA

7,070

6,051

13,414

52.71%

45.11%

1,019

77
SCHOOLCRAFT

1,507

1,321

2,889

52.16%

45.73%

186

71
PRESQUE ISLE

2,743

2,365

5,264

52.11%

44.93%

378

65 OGEMAW

3,621

3,095

6,982

51.86%

44.33%

526

29
GRATIOT

5,667

4,983

10,933

51.83%

45.58%

684

58 MONROE

24,275

21,447

47,003

51.65%

45.63%

2,828

66
ONTONAGON

1,295

1,156

2,535

51.08%

45.60%

139

39
KALAMAZOO

41,407

37,523

81,156

51.02%

46.24%

3,884

78
SHIAWASSEE

12,269

11,252

24,289

50.51%

46.33%

1,017

17
CHIPPEWA

5,590

5,166

11,077

50.46%

46.64%

424

18 CLARE

4,660

4,210

9,249

50.38%

45.52%

450

06 ARENAC

2,708

2,459

5,377

50.36%

45.73%

249

04 ALPENA

4,810

4,546

9,620

50.00%

47.26%

264

43 LAKE

1,745

1,656

3,520

49.57%

47.05%

89

23 EATON

19,989

20,049

40,785

49.01%

49.16%

-60

37
ISABELLA

8,031

7,871

16,433

48.87%

47.90%

160

07 BARAGA

1,180

1,249

2,487

47.45%

50.22%

-69

51
MANISTEE

4,360

4,650

9,252

47.12%

50.26%

-290

09 BAY

17,471

18,902

37,347

46.78%

50.61%

-1,431

61
MUSKEGON

22,879

24,749

49,070

46.63%

50.44%

-1,870

02 ALGER

1,520

1,643

3,280

46.34%

50.09%

-123

27
GOGEBIC

2,306

2,628

5,048

45.68%

52.06%

-322

73
SAGINAW

30,264

35,370

67,142

45.07%

52.68%

-5,106

81
WASHTENAW

50,393

68,260

120,895

41.68%

56.46%

-17,867

52
MARQUETTE

9,265

12,466

22,263

41.62%

55.99%

-3,201

33 INGHAM

35,445

50,131

87,202

40.65%

57.49%

-14,686

25
GENESEE

48,894

79,573

131,602

37.15%

60.46%

-30,679

82 WAYNE

177,678

323,685

509,792

34.85%

63.49%

-146,007

Closer to home, we had some blowout wins here, despite spirited challenged by the dems.

Our new Congressman is Mike Bishop.

Congress

Bishop

Schertzing

Total

GOP

Dem

33 INGHAM

29,314

52,374

84,273

34.78%

62.15%

47
LIVINGSTON

43,330

21,623

67,544

64.15%

32.01%

63 OAKLAND

59,801

27,194

89,902

66.52%

30.25%

Total

132,445

101,191

241,719

54.79%

41.86%

Bishop was very strong in his home area and did well in Livingston County where he worked quite hard. I didn't see or hear much of Schertzing working outside of simple "Generic D" push in Livingston or Oakland. I did hear he worked hard in his home county and it showed. Bishop's campaign folks wanted Mike Rogers numbers out of Livingston County, but that's tough to do. He did get about the same Rogers got in 2000 however. Putting it into that perspective, means there's plenty of room for growth. I like Mike going back to his 2010 Attorney General campaign and think he'll do a good job for us.

State Senate and State Rep
Joe Hune was easily re-elected despite an $80,000 challenge and high profile (locally) mudslinging from Shari Pollesch, assisted by LC Dems. He won all municipalities except two in Washtenaw County - City of Chelsea and Scio Township (and the one vote in the City of Ann Arbor). Shari Pollesch's campaign is crowing about winning the Washtenaw County portion of the district, but that's due to Scio Township's votes. Scio Township is Ann Arbor west and has been democrat for about 20 years. It's also the largest part of the Washtenaw portion of the district.

Joe Hune got 64% in Livingston County, 48% in Washtenaw County and 59% overall - which was better than Romney. In Livingston County, he got 43591 votes to Pollesch's 22408 votes.

Dr Henry Vaupel easily won his open seat against Jordan Genso. Vaupel and Hune worked together on the campaign quite often, especially in the primary (for Vaupel). Vaupel got 20,995 votes and 69% in his district to Genso's 8086 votes. Genso didn't run a very active campaign from what I've seen, and didn't nearly have the campaign money that Pollesch had. Lana Theis easily won his open seat against Timothy Johnson. She got 23477 votes and 65% to Johnson's 12544 votes. Johnson ran a more active campaign than Genso in regards to signs and money, but Lana outworked him quite heavily and hit thousands of doors. It showed in the results.

Going back to Joe's senate election. Pollesch worked hard. She claimed to hit 19,000 doors. I have a hard time believing that number (due to bragging about 100 doors in at least 1/2 of a week), but I could be wrong. She raised money, and got a bunch of signs out (although signs don't vote). She didn't outwork Joe (nobody does), but she ran a tough campaign. How much did that move the needle? Not much. You have to know your district and your county. To put it bluntly - if the product sucks, the people aren't going to buy it.

Pollesch's 22408 votes in Livingston County are 1778 votes higher than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Pollesch campaign spent $72000+ more than the combined total of Johnson and Genso. Hune's 43591 votes in Livingston County are 881 votes less than the combined total of Vaupel and Theis, two strong campaigners. In other words, it barely moved the needle.

Why? The product sucked. Bigtime. After that slime campaign, you can better believe that I'm gloating. From an ideology standpoint - Higher taxes. Higher spending. F rating from NRA. Massive regulations in the name of global warming. Tax funded abortions. That isn't in the mainstream of this state, nor is it the mainstream of center-right Livingston County. From a non-ideology standpoint, negative bashfests and slime campaigns are almost never rewarded in this county. That stuff works in Eastern/Central Oakland and Macomb, not here. There is a very strong "Don't crap where you live." mentality in these parts. We have a good community, worked hard to keep it that way, and don't want this crap to contaminate it. The people saw through that as I expected, and the results are what I expected.

On the commissioners level, no democrats broke 40%. Katakowski came close in the 8th district (Mostly Hamburg). He ran the strongest campaign and from what I've heard didn't really go negative. Mike Tipton barely cracked 35% despite the most active campaign. He has some of the same problems that Shari Pollesch had on the trail and got similar results (Pollesch got slightly under 33% in the county).

I'll have more on a macro level regarding the state later. On the county level, we did well, especially considering three open seats. It starts with candidates. Mike Bishop, Lana Theis, and Doc Vaupel are good recruits for the open seats. Bill Schuette, Ruth Johnson, Joe Hune and the Commissioners are good incumbents. Rick Snyder came through in the end to get enough coattails - at least outstate, to get a few of our folks over the line.

1 comment:

Hey Dan. I'm trying to find a Livingston Republican/conservative/Tea Party activist/Libertarian who may be willing to do a weekly or monthly podcast we me. Would you be interested, or would you know of anyone who might be?