Cotton reacts to Tropical Storm Karen dissipating

General Comments: Futures were mixed, with London a Little higher again, but New York and Sao Paulo trading a little lower. It appeared to be a day of positioning by speculators. Producers all over the world are worried about the low prices and are trying to hold back on offers, but differentials and futures prices remain very low. Rains are continuing in Brazil. Brazil markets appear mostly quiet. Coffee is available in Central America. New crop is now being offered and the last of the old crop is getting moved. Colombia is offering Coffee at stable differentials. Current crop development is still good this year in most production areas of Latin America. Central America crop conditions are said to be good overall, but the rust is still a big problem. Production is still expected to be down 15% in the region. The weather is good, with frequent rains.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 2.765 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.52 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers and rains. Northern Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 112.00, 111.00, and 106.00 December. Support is at 113.00, 111.00, and 108.00 December, and resistance is at 117.00, 119.00, and 121.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1640, 1600, and 1570 November, and resistance is at 1740, 1755, and 1770 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 135.00, 132.00, and 129.00 December, and resistance is at 140.00, 142.00, and 145.50 December.

General Comments: Futures were higher in London, but a little lower in New York. It was a consolidation day before the weekend, with speculators doing most of the trading. Trends remain up on the charts. Less production in Brazil due to excessive rains continued to provide support overall. India also might have production problems as the monsoon has been slow to recede. There is talk of increased offers from India and Thailand, and Thai differentials are stable. Thailand expects more production this year, and is actively offering their supplies into the world market. India and Brazil are the same, so Sugar should be available at good prices for buyers.

Overnight News: Brazil could see mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1880, 1940, and 1980 March. Support is at 1825, 1815, and 1790 March, and resistance is at 1855, 1870, and 1880 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 473.00, 499.00, and 511.00 December. Support is at 487.00, 478.00, and 476.50 December, and resistance is at 495.00, 496.00, and 500.00 December.

General Comments: Futures closed higher again on more speculative trading. The fundamentals are still considered bullish as production still looks to be less than demand for the coming year, but prices have started to struggle at current levels. Ivory Coast has increased the guaranteed price to farmers last week, and that might help with production prospects even though the main crop is about ready for harvest. Farmers might buy more inputs to help increase mid-crop production potential. Rains have returned to West Africa. Ideas are that crop conditions there are generally good, but that drought and hot temperatures seen earlier in the growing season has hurt bean size and yields. Malaysia and Indonesia weather is favorable.

Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers, but southern areas could be dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.161 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2555, 2535, and 2505 December, with resistance at 2620, 2650, and 2680 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1650, 1640, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1700, 1715, and 1730 December.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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