Been a busy couple of weeks, but you can stop your fucking weeping and pining for the absent Finny picks. Because here they are, motherfuckers! For the occasion, I’m introducing the all new mathematical thingamabob, which I am calling Gnerd. Gnerd calculates team strength based on both offensive and defensive stats, and has a predictor function as well. Try to contain your fucking excitement and don’t piss on the floor, will ya?

The madness of the 2011 season continues. Tim Tebow can’t be stopped. The Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, but (yet again) fall asleep and lose on the road to a shitty Seahawks team. The early season success of the Lions and Bills has come crashing back to earth. Otherwise intelligent coaches do stupid-assed shit (and yes, I am referring to Mike Smith going for it on 4th and inches from his own 30 in OT). Roger “Your Ass” Goodell fines everyone and everything for any delusional slight of the brand, while head shots to Steelers players go uncalled and aren’t fined. Fuck that.

All Tim Tebow does is win… against shit teams. OK, the Raiders are probably going to win the AFCW, but that’s damning with faint praise, and they’d just lost their starting QB when the Broncos beat them last time, so asterisk that win. Other wins for Tebow came against Miami and KC. Jets will likely load up the box and dare Tebow to throw on Revis and Cromartie-Species.

Sanchez is a hot pile of sick, but he’s nominally better than Tebow at throwing in the general direction of his receivers. If Bailey covers Holmes, Dirty will need to find Dustin Keller, Plax, and (if the knee is OK) LT. I expect Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil to get in Sanchez’s face, so this could be a low scoring game.

Big picture, Jets and Bills are both 5-4 and trailing the 6-3 Patriots. Worse, the AFCN has the 7-3 Steelers and the 6-3 Ravens and Bengals. That leaves very little margin of error for the Jets to make it as a wild card team. They have to take care of business, especially with one of the Ravens/Bengals going to 7-3 and the Bills meeting a beatable Dolphins team.

1. Green Bay Packers. Who else? Gnerd ranks the Pack 2nd overall (1st on offense, 18th on defense).2. Houston Texans. Playing the most balanced ball of any team outside of Green Bay, even without stars Mario Williams or Andre Johnson. Losing Matt Schaub will hurt in the post-season, but for now Leinart should guide them to a division title. Gnerd ranks the Texans 1st overall (4th on offense, 7th on defense).3. Pittsburgh Steelers. The bye comes at a good time, as this team needs to get healthy. In a three-way race with Ravens and Bengals, and the Ravens keep losing to shitty teams. Gnerd ranks the Steelers 5th overall (5th on offense, 12th on defense). 4. New England Patriots. Patriots defense showed up for a game, but we all know Belichick’s gamble is all-or-nothing, offense leads the way. Gnerd ranks the Patriots 6th overall (2nd on offense, 23rd on defense).5. Baltimore Ravens. The inverse Patriots. The losses to Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Seattle are unbelievable, but Ravens defense is always in the convo. Gnerd ranks the Ravens 4th overall (17th on offense, 1st on defense).6. San Francisco 49ers. Hard to argue with their record, but they also come out of the insipid NFCW, so I’ll temper my enthusiasm. Not a lot of quality wins aside from beating the Giants last week and Cinci on the road. Gnerd ranks the Niners 12th overall (18th on offense, 7th on defense). 7. Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are an enigma, but if they can put it together they’re one of the more potent NFC teams, solid in all phases. That beatdown of the Bills may be a precursor. Gnerd ranks the Cowboys 7th overall (offense is 8th, defense is 10th). 8. New York Giants. Looks like the G-men and Cowgirls will be battling for the NFCE all the way. Loser of the division will be in a tight race for the wild card with NCFS and NFCN contenders. Gnerd ranks the Giants 9th overall (offense is 6th, defense is 11th). 9. Cincinnati Bengals. Bengals are playing solid fundamental ball, starting on the lines. Solid D, sturdy running game, and QB who’s not making a lot of errors makes Cinci sort of the San Fran of the AFC. Gnerd ranks the Bengals 15th overall (offense is 20th, defense is 13th). 10. New Orleans Saints. Important win over the Falcons may seal the division, but I’m not impressed by the New Orleans D this year, and they’re much worse on the road (3-3). Gnerd ranks the Saints 3rd overall (offense is 3rd, defense is 20th). 11. Chicago Bears. Bears are that steady as you go team that always climbs back into playoff contention. They’re just playing better now, plain and simple. Matt Forte has been a beast. Gnerd ranks the Bears 14th overall (offense is 21st, defense is 5th). 12. Atlanta Falcons. Favorable late schedule could see the Falcons wind up 11-5, if they win the rematch with the Saints. Gnerd ranks the Falcons 13th overall (offense is 13th, defense is 8th). 13. New York Jets. Jets also have a very manageable late schedule, so taking care of teams like the Broncos is necessary. Sanchez not sucking would also help. Gnerd ranks the Jets 10th (offense is 16th, defense is 2nd). 14. Detroit Lions. Oh How the Mighty Have Fallen. Losses to good teams (SF, Atlanta, and Chicago) aren’t egregious (see Ravens), but some of the shine is off. Not the same without Jahvid Best. Gnerd ranks the Lions 8th overall (offense is 15th, defense is 4th). 15. Buffalo Bills. Oh How the Mighty Have Fallen, Pt. 2. Tied with the Jets at 5-4 but with a better AFC record, Bills aren’t out of it yet. But they’re close. Lost to the Giants, Jets, and Cowboys; again, not egregious. But Cowboys game is a concern. Not the same without Kyle Williams. Gnerd ranks the Bills 17th overall (offense is 9th, defense is 26th). 16. Tennessee Titans. At 5-4, they’re well back of the 7-3 Texans, but not out of wild card contention. Aside from losing to Jacksonville in the opener, losses are not egregious (Steelers, Texans, Bengals). Late schedule isn’t going to be easy, but it is conceivable Titans could get to 9 or 10 wins. Gnerd ranks the Titans 16th overall (offense is 14th, defense is 16th). 17. Oakland Raiders. Possibly the best in a bad division, but at 5-4 and the rest of the AFCW at 4-5, even that’s not a given. Palmer looks like he’s rounding to form, and all the other teams have QB issues, including Philip Rivers’s apparent crack problem. Gnerd ranks the Raiders 19th overall (offense is 12th, defense is 26th). 18. San Diego Chargers. OK, if Rivers stops smoking crack, the Chargers could again assemble a run, but they’re definitely on the down cycle this year. Living off fumes of previous years’ hype. Gnerd ranks the Chargers 18th overall (offense is 11th, defense is 27th).19. Philadelphia Eagles. And that’s probably generous. There’s tons of talent on this team, and the potential to be a dangerous offense, but they’re a stone cold wreck right now. Nothing’s in synch. Defense is awful, OL is sorry, Vick’s hurt. Gnerd ranks the Eagles 11th overall (offense is 7th, defense is 17th). 20. Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s a bad team that found a way to beat two good teams (Giants, Ravens). Marshawn Lynch is in beast mode. Gnerd rankes the Seahawks 27th overall (26th on offense, 15th on defense).21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has just fallen apart. Their offense is nonexistent, their DL misses Gerald McCoy, and their secondary is insipid. And before a 3-game losing streak they were sitting at 4-2. Gnerd ranks the Bucs as 29th overall (23rd on offense, 30th on defense). 22. Carolina Panthers. Panthers have shown some sparks with Cam Newton as QB, despite last week’s beatdown by Tennessee. The difference between Tim Tebow and Cam Newton? All Tebow does is win, baby. The other difference? Newton’s got an actual future as an NFL QB. Gnerd ranks the Panthers 20th overall (10th on offense, 31st on defense).23. Washington Redskins. Grossman. Beck. Grossman. Who gives a fuck? Seriously? Gnerd ranks the Redskins 22nd overall (29th on offense, 9th on defense). 24. Miami Dolphins. Chad Henne. Matt Moore. Who gives a fuck? Seriously? Gnerd ranks the Dolphins 21st overall (22nd on offense, 21st on defense).25. Cleveland Browns. Browns playing as I predicted the Bengals would, and vice versa. The Pat Shurmur era has been, shall we say, inauspicious. Good pass D though. Gnerd ranks the Browns 24th (27th on offense, 14th on defense). 26. Denver Broncos. Think this Tebow option offense shit will stick for a while? Sure, just like that Miami Dolphins Wildcat offense. That shit re-wrote fucking football. Gnerd ranks the Broncos 26th overall (24th on offense, 19th on defense).27. Jacksonville Jaguars. Defense has shown its mettle. Running game still has MJD. Blaine fucking Gabbert and that passing game are hideous. Nice fucking draft pick there, idiots. Gnerd ranks the Jaguars 25th overall (32nd on offense, 3rd on defense). 28. Minnesota Vikings. Ponder should develop into a solid QB and they still have AP. Defense ain’t what it used to be, and neither is the OL. Also, their wideouts suck. Gnerd ranks the Vikings 23rd (19th on offense, 24th on defense).29. Arizona Cardinals. Cardinals almost beat the Ravens, then turn around and beat the Eagles. And yet, they suck. How stupid was that Kevin Kolb deal in retrospect? Gnerd ranks the Cardinals 28th overall (25th on offense, 29th on defense).30. Kansas City Chiefs. Chiefs started the year as the worst team in the bigs, then showed signs of life, and now are ready to go back into their coma with Cassell out. Tyler Palko FTW! Gnerd ranks the Chiefs 30th overall (28th on offense, 22nd on defense).31. St. Louis Rams. In any other year, the Rams would again be the worst team in football. And the crazy thing is that they have some talent on both sides of the ball. Injuries, bad mojo, who knows. Almost made the playoffs last year but back to the cesspool this year. Gnerd ranks the Rams 31st overall (31st on offense, 28th on defense).32. Indianapolis Colts. The horror. The horror. Gnerd ranks the Colts 32nd overall (30th on offense, 32nd on defense).

Mrs. Finny thought I had fallen asleep while watching that abomination of a game, but actually it turned out I was in a fucking coma. A few pitchers of NyQuiltinis brought me around, but for a while there it looked like fucking Tebow had finally done it. Finally killed the old bastard. Seriously, what words to describe that game? Vile? Wretched? Mind-numbing? Rebarbative? Repugnant? Fucking Goodell should fine both teams... just fucking because. Here he does all this work to gay up the league and these two idiot QBs can't fucking do shit with the passer-friendly rules. Sure, we love defensive scrums, but not when the offenses blow dead wino dick. That's about as fun as watching buzzards eat roadkill. NO. WAIT. I'd rather watch a three hour documentary of buzzards picking at a fucking carcass than ever have to watch Tim Tebow against Sanchez or any of the other shitty QBs he's won against.

All the talking heads are A-fucking-GOG over how Tebow looks like utter shit for 55 minutes of reg and then pulls wonders out of his ass in the last 5. It's fucking simple, you fucking morons. He bores them to death. He rope-a-dopes even good defenses like the Jets, and after 55 minutes their brains start to hurt. And they don't have Mrs. Finny with a pitcher of 'Tinis to bring them out of their coma. Seriously, Erica Smith, how can you not have contain against a running QB? And did you see Antonio Cromartie hanging onto Eric Decker in the EZ so he wouldn't have to go and try to tackle Tebow? Hilarious. You jackals have probably just fucked your entire season. Have you seen the AFCN standings lately?

To say nothing of Mark Sanchez. Five trips to the Broncos side of the field, 3 points. What a fucking douche. How the fuck this team ever got the AFCC – twice – with this bobo under center defies logic. Sure, they have a solid defense, and their running game is good, or used to be. I’ll say it’s the Cotchery effect. Cotch leaves town, it all goes downhill for Nacho. Maybe Arians is being fucking brilliant, easing Cotch into the lineup sorta invisibly, just in time to make a big impact late in the season. Or, you know, not.

So my initial impulse was to say the Donkos would cover, a 16-13 kinda Jets win. Because, seriously, I couldn’t see the Jets missing the opportunity to beat the shit out of the Broncos. And even with the offensive ineptitude, I figured they had to get to 20 points. Well, shoulda stuck with my gut instinct. In next week’s power rankings, the Broncos won’t get a huge rise, but expect the Jets to fall. Here’s the question: the Jets and Jaguars both have a pretty decent defense, and some running offense, and fucking Blaine fucking Gabbert and fucking Mark fucking Sanchez at QB. How can anyone say the Jets are anything more than incrementally better than the Jags?

Buffalo Bills (5-4) +1 at Miami Dolphins (2-7). After a brilliant 4-0 start, the Bills have hit some tough surfing. Losses to the Giants, Jets, and a blowout loss to the Cowboys have rattled this team. NT Kyle Williams is out for the year, and the rush defense has slipped. C Eric Woods is likewise done for the year, and WR Stevie Johnson’s shoulder is dinged. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have started to cohere a bit, winning two straight over KC and Washington, after narrowly losing to the Giants and the Broncos.

That smells an awful lot like a potential win for the home team. The Bills have a chance to leapfrog the sorry-assed Jets and remain in contention for an AFC wild card, so long as one of the AFCN teams falters. Losing sends them to the purgatory of 5-5 along with the aforementioned Jets and their pathetic fucking vanquishers, the Donkeys. Expect plenty of running in this one, with the score bubbling along and making under 43 look smart. But I think the Bills passing game breaks out late.

Finny says: Bills 24, Dolphins 23. Gnerd predicts: Bills by 1.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) +7 at Baltimore Ravens (6-3). Let’s see if I can get this right. Against the Steelers, Fucco looks like a pretty decent QB. The defense is in top form. But against the turds of the league, these guys look like they spent the pregame shooting heroin into their fucking eyeballs. I mean, the Sea-fucking-HAWKS? Seriously? And now it looks like that juke Marshawn Lynch gave Ray Ray might have broken Uncle Stabby’s toe, as he’ll be out this week and possibly more.

Bengals have won 6 of the last 10 against the Ravens, and Andy Dalton is completing over 60% of his passes, while Fucco is struggling to get to 55%. My gut says the Ravens, at home after a loss, should win decisively to even their record with the Steelers. But my head says that the Bengals will cover and possibly spring the upset, even with CB Leon Hall done for the year.

Finny says: Another defensive chess match, but can’t see the Ravens dropping this one at home. Ravens 24, Bengals 21. Gnerd predicts: Ravens by 8.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) +1 at Cleveland Browns (3-6). Remember when Colt McCoy was the Andy Dalton of 2010? Remember when Blaine fucking Gabbert was… well, he did beat the Ravens, or at least didn’t get in the way of his team. This could be the best week 11 matchup of shitty QBs since Tebow-Sanchez! Seriously, if this was the only game on, I’d watch the documentary on buzzards eating carcasses. I’d nail my finger to an oak board just to alleviate the pain that watching these teams would cause. I’d shit all over the neighbor’s lawn in broad daylight. Well, that would have nothing to do with the game per se, and everything to do with my needing to be out of my mind drunk to sit through the game.

Browns get Montario Hardesty back, what with Peyton Hillis sidelined with the sniffles or whatever the fuck. Has anyone figured out what the fuck is up with that situation? McCoy is starting to get some production out of Greg Little, but he’s still very raw. On the flip, the Jags run D will probably shut Hardesty down and dare McCoy to win through the air. With CB Rashean Mathis out (ACL), the Jags will rely on CB Will Middleton, a Furman grad who had to delay starting med school due to getting a shot in the bigs.

Blaine fucking Gabbert won’t be able to do shit, especially on CB Joe Haden’s side of the field. MJD will pile up his yards against a Browneye defense that can’t stop the run. Field goal fiesta with one TD coming off a broken coverage?

Finny says: Browns 16, Jaguars 12. Gnerd predicts: Browns by 4.

Oakland Raiders (5-4) -1 at Minnesota Vikings (2-7). Raiders have to be annoyed at Tebow and the Broncos moving to 5-5. That whole division is a fucking mess, with Oakland at 5-4, and SD and KC both at 4-5. Raiders will definitely be motivated to keep some distance over the Broncos, and Old Noodle Arm seems to be clicking with the offense now. Even without Darren McFadden running, Palmer to Moore should take advantage of the loss of CB Antoine Winfield.

The Vikes should feed AP the ball plenty, against a sorry Raiders run defense. Poor Christian Ponder actually looks like a decent player, with no line help and a shitty group of receivers to throw to. Even if the Vikings aren’t as bad as the Packers made them appear to be, they’re still plenty bad.

Finny says: Vikings can only hope to take the air out of this game with AP. Don’t see that being enough. Raiders 27, Vikings 21. Gnerd predicts: Raiders by 1.

Carolina Panthers (2-7) +7 at Detroit Lions (6-3). Lions, like the Bills, need to get back to winning to stay relevant in the wild card race. With the Bears clawing back to 6-3 as well, Lions need to shake off some injuries to Stafford and Johnson, and do a better job of protecting the QB. Panthers should get their ground game going again, but figure Suh & Co. will harass Newton. Lions get a Panthers defense that can’t stop anyone, expect them to score a bunch. And actually, I can see this being a shootout.

Finny says: Lions will be hard pressed to look as good as they did over their opening stretch, but eke a much-needed win. Lions 34, Panthers 30. Gnerd predicts: Lions by 9.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) +14 at Green Bay Packers (9-0). The Packers are clicking. The Bucs are fading. Really, how much analysis do you need?

Finny says: Packers 42, Bucs 13. Gnerd predicts: Packers by 12.

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) -7.5 at Washington Redskins (3-6). Both defenses are pretty solid, but the Cowboys offense is blazing just as the Redskins offense is going out. I expect DeMarco Murray to key the offense and open up the passing game, which looks very, very dangerous at just the right time.

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) +9.5 at San Francisco 49ers (8-1). So John Skelton is the savior in Zona or something? Because the Cards beat an atrocious Rams team (in OT) and upset a fractured Eagles squad? Doubt the Niners fall into a trap of overlooking the Cards, but at 8-1, with the division all but in their ass pocket, they might not be as up for this game as the line suggests. They blew out TB but other games have been much closer, so I suspect a division game will be more about playing mistake-free and utilizing ball control than thumping the Cards by 2 TDs.

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) +3 at St. Louis Rams (2-7). Easy to think the Seahawks win this after beating the Ravens, but coming off that win I can see them flat on the road. Marshawn Lynch is running like a beast, and Seahawks are stout against the run, but losing RT John Carpenter and RG John Moffitt spells trouble, as do concussions for Tarvaris Jackson’s top two wideouts, Doug Baldwin and Sidney Rice.

Go with the Rams to get by a damaged Seahawks team in what looks to be another awesome NFCW divisional game. Simply tremendous. Can’t wait.

Finny says: Rams 17, Seahawks 16. Gnerd predicts: Seahawks by 2.

Tennessee Titans (5-4) +6 at Atlanta Falcons (5-4). Titans and Falcons are solid against the run, so this game would seem to set up as a passing contest. Except that Julio Jones and Roddy White are dinged for the Falcons, and the Titans’ top WRs are Nate Washington and Damian Williams, which is to say, not scary.

Atlanta knows that at 5-4, they’re playing catch up to the 7-3 Saints the rest of the season. Last week’s disastrous OT loss to those Saints means that now the Falcons will be vying for a wild card against the NFCN’s 6-3 Bears and Lions, and the NFCN’s 5-4 Cowboys. Bottom line, the Falcons have little room for failure if they want to play in the post-season.

Finny says: Go with the home team desperate for a win, but not for 6 points. Falcons 24, Titans 20. Gnerd predicts: Falcons by 6.

San Siego Chargers (4-5) +3.5 at Chicago Bears (6-3). The Bears have actually started to fix some of their OL problems and have apparently duct-taped OC Mike Martz and thrown him into a trunk in some New Jersey swamp. What else explains the fact that they’re running Matt Forte more?

Meanwhile, Phil Rivers has suddenly become addicted to crack. I came to this realization when I saw Rivers break huddle last week with smoke trailing out of his nostrils and a glass pipe in his hand. The Chargers OL is a mess, and with LT Marcus McNeill woozy after a stinger and LG Kris Dielman done for the season. I’ve been saying the Chargers are over-rated for a couple of years now, but the shit is truly hitting the fan now.

Since their bye, the Bolts have dropped four straight. Their two road games, they lost to the no-offense Jets and the crappy Chiefs, and their two home games they gave up 45 to the Pack and lost by a TD to Oakland. A year or two ago, a four game losing streak by the Chargers would have been unthinkable. It would be assumed they would just pull out of it sometime, what with their zesty offense and statistically appealing defense. But now they’re in full nose dive.

Finny says: Bears 31, Chargers 17. Gnerd predicts: Bears by 6.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) +5.5 at New York Giants (6-3). Speaking of nose dives

The theme song for the Eagles defense, which couldn’t stop the pathetic Cardinals for fuck’s sake, should be the Dead Boys’ immortal Down in Flames. What else? Leading receiver Jeremy Maclin is likely out with a shoulder. And QB Vick is out with busted up ribs. That means Vince Young gets the start, which could be good and bad.

There’s one train of thought that says a backup QB will have some success out of the gate because there’s not enough film on him and his tendencies. Backups have something to prove, especially if they’re former starters.

On the downside of that theory: the Eagles just don’t have the defense to keep up. Vince will keep it interesting until the Giants start to pull away in the third quarter, and it just gets ugly.

Finny says: Giants 34, Eagles 20. Gnerd predicts: Giants by 6.

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) +14.5 at New England Patriots (6-3). Nevermind that the Broncos-Jets game highlighted that you don’t need a defense to shut down Mark Sanchez. Let the Patriots feel as though their defense is getting better. It just won’t matter against a Chiefs team that lost QB Matt Cassell and is starting Tyler Palko.

I’ll let others parse out the ironies of former Patriots coaches and players now with the Chiefs. It just doesn’t tickle my gonads to do so. Patriots see the chance to start putting some room between themselves and the Jets in the standings, and take advantage.

Where are you seeing the Bills as 2.5pt. road favorite? They're an underdog just about everywhere I've looked. Pretty sure the line started at Bills (+2). You just press the wrong key after a Nyquilitini binge?

Where are you seeing the Bills as 2.5pt. road favorite? They're an underdog just about everywhere I've looked. Pretty sure the line started at Bills (+2). You just press the wrong key after a Nyquilitini binge?