In a recent article, Predictive Indicators written by John Ehlers he highlighted a unique indicator used to time market cycles. This indicator is a heavily modified Stochastic Oscillator and was demonstrated on the S&P. In this article, I want to put John’s Oscillator to the test by comparing it to another popular indicator used for timing […]

One favorite “gotta have” of many traders is a breakeven stop. By not letting a winning trade become a loser, the psychological lure of breakeven stops is strong. This is especially true for discretionary traders, where the winning percentage can play an important mental (not necessarily financial) role. The answer for automated traders may be […]

INTRODUCTION Technical traders understand that indicators need to smooth market data to be useful, and that smoothing introduces lag as an unwanted side effect. We also know that the market is fractal; a daily interval chart looks just like a weekly, monthly, or intraday chart. What may not be quite as obvious is that as […]

Two problems that often result from system optimization are, (1) a reduction in the number of trades, a system that generates too few trades can both be more difficult to trade and a low number of trades does not inspire confidence; and (2) there is a selectivity or specialization risk that, by sheer bad luck, […]

A while back we posted an article called, “Modified Chartmill Value Indicator“, the author presented an indicator that might prove helpful in your trading. The indicator is an oscillator which highlights overbought and oversold conditions. The author created a simple test strategy to test the effectiveness of the strategy. The results looked promising and you […]

May is just about over and our seasonality indicator recently exited a long position on May 18, 2017. This turned our Seasonality Bias, found on our State of U.S. Markets webpage, from green to red. At this time two of the three indicators are red (Short-Term Trend and Seasonality Bias) which warns of possible weakness over the coming weeks […]

When you review the performance of a trading model, how do you know it’s worth trading for? How do you know it’s the right system for you? How confident are you that it will continue to profit in the future? When it comes to evaluating your trading model there are many factors to take into account. […]

With the year 2016 well behind us, it’s time to look at the very popular 2-period RSI trading method by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. We all know there are no magic indicators but there is an indicator that certainly acted like magic over several decades. What indicator is it? Our reliable RSI indicator. The modified 2-period RSI […]

Often when designing a system it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. What is the overall market doing? The most simple way to accomplish this is to break the market into two regimes: bullish and bearish. We are all aware that price action is a mirror of human psychology of market participants, therefore […]