What explains the 2015 defeat of Nigeria’s ruling party by a new party less than two years old? Despite a spike in terrorism and widespread public complaints about government waste, we find that neither violence nor patronage systematically explains voting patterns. Instead, statistical evidence points to state-level economic performance and perceptions of the national economy. Using surveys, original variables measuring economic performance and – for the first time – presidential election results at the local government level, we statistically demonstrate that “economic voting” helped the opposition. We attribute opposition success to a ‘talakawa effect’ rooted in a class-based coalition.

Carl LeVan (left) and Matthew Page (right) in Gombe State, during a research trip for this article.

Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Election Dataset

Click here to download the election results at the local government level.
We believe the publication of electoral results disaggregated to the local government level constitutes a major contribution to our ability to study elections in Nigeria, even though some of the results are unofficial reported figures. The variables here include our main dependent variable, which measures the change in the PDP’s vote share from 2011 to 2015, as well as the variables used to construct it. The dataset also includes a variable measuring the adult literacy rate for those over the age of 15, and the number of languages spoken in each LGA.