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Seat-by-seat voting intentions in your electorate

Noel Towell

The central electorate was tipped to be a key battleground on Saturday with the Canberra Liberals targeting one of the ACT Greens seats, most likely the one held by Caroline Le Couteur.

But the outcome is likely to be much the same as in 2008, although a very strong Labor vote, probably led by Chief Minister Katy Gallagher, could lead to an unexpected result.

"In 2008 they (Labor) had two quotas needing 1.5 per cent from preferences to achieve their third quota," pollster Keith Patterson said.

''Our data now suggests that they will quite comfortably win the three quotas with around 7 to 8 per cent spare, to contribute to the Greens.''

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The most likely outcome in Molonglo is for Labor to easily win three seats without preferences, the Liberals to comfortably win two, and the Greens one before they go to preferences.

But the twist in the Molonglo tale is the prospect of the Greens fighting not with the Liberals for the last seat as widely tipped, but with Labor.

''The Opposition is simply too far down, with only 5 per cent towards the third quota to have a show,'' Mr Patterson said.

''The final quota cannot go to the Liberals, or any of the independents or minor parties. It will either be Labor, if it gets more primary votes towards the final quota than the Greens, or Greens, if they manage to get more primary votes towards the final quota than Labor.

''In our assessment it is therefore most probable that the Greens will end up with two quotas, resulting in a three-two-two outcome, but it will come down to a handful of votes for the final quota.''

Brindabella was to be the frontline in the Canberra Liberals' two-pronged offensive against the ACT Greens, as the opposition aggressively attacked the seat in the southern electorate held by Amanda Bresnan. But Patterson Research Group polling predicts the voting split will give Labor and Liberals two full quotas each, with about 9 per cent to spare. The Greens look like picking up the final allocation, depending on the flow of preferences from the minor parties.

''It seems unlikely though that either the Liberals or perhaps more realistically Labor, will be able to gather enough support to pick up the fifth seat,'' Mr Patterson said.

''Bullet Train voters are expected to largely support the Greens and Labor, which means ultimately Green in this context, giving the Greens 14 per cent.

''The Motorists will be split between the Greens and the Liberals, but the effect will be that the Greens will have about 16 per cent to the Liberals' 5 per cent towards their third quota.

''The Greens are almost certain to pick up the final quota, to hold the balance in Brindabella.''

The Liberals are likely to suffer from the number of Greens voters ''swamping'' the other minor party voters, so that even if all the ''non-Green'' minor party supporters pushed their secondary support to the Liberals, it would not be enough to secure them a third seat. ''Similarly, if all the non-Green minor party voters pushed their support to Labor it would not be enough to gain them the third quota,'' Mr Patterson said.

''There is no prospect of anything other than a two-two-one outcome in Brindabella.''

This is the electorate where Labor support was tipped to suffer after last year's retirement of former chief minister Jon Stanhope. But The Canberra Times polling shows both Labor and the Liberals posting marked increases in support at the cost of the quite solid independent vote in 2008, down from 9 per cent to just 1 per cent.

Support for The Australian Motorists Party's Chic Henry is at 3 per cent.

''Support for the Greens may have softened marginally, but the difference in Green support from the 2008 election result is well within sample error,'' Mr Patterson said. ''Labor will comfortably gather two quotas, as will the Liberals, albeit with less ''spare'' votes left over.

''Similarly the Greens, with 13 per cent, are almost certain to pick up the final quota, making Ginninderra two Labor, two Liberal and one Green. ''The reality is that the 5 per cent 'spare' that Labor has is likely to go to the Greens, giving them 18 per cent. ''It is doubtful that there can be any other outcome than that the fifth quota will go to the Greens, resulting in a two-two-one outcome for Ginninderra.''

CORRECTION:

An earlier version of this article contained incorrect figures for the 2008 election in Molonglo. The correct figures (see above) show that ACT Labor had 36 per cent of the vote in the electorate in 2008, the Canberra Liberals had 32 per cent and The Greens 18. Pollster Keith Patterson said the error, which occurred during Patterson Research Group’s production of the comparison table, had suggested the Liberals’ vote in Molonglo had increased since 2008, but the latest polling had actually shown it had slipped by 2 percentage points, while Labor was up 9 percentage points and the Greens up 2 points.