Kim Jong Un is not crazy

By Stephan Haggard, Special to CNN

Updated 6:44 PM ET, Tue April 2, 2013

Photos: Militaries and Korean tensions28 photos

Militaries and Korean tensions – Emergency service personnel wearing chemical protective clothing participate in an anti-chemical warfare exercise on Tuesday, April 16 in Seoul. Tensions remain high in the Korean Peninsula in the wake of North Korea's recent nuclear threats and provocations. A Pentagon intelligence assessment suggests the North may have the ability to deliver a nuclear weapon with a ballistic missile, though the reliability is believed to be "low."

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean marines arrive on the island of Yeonpyeong near the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea on Friday, April 12.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – A Japanese soldier is on alert as Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile launchers are deployed at the Defense Ministry in Tokyo on Wednesday, April 10.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers sit in a truck at the Inter-Korean transit office on Tuesday, April 9, in Paju, South Korea.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers participate in an artillery drill as part of the Foal Eagle joint military exercise by U.S. and South Korean forces near the Demilitarized Zone in Goseong on April 9.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – U.S. soldiers are at a military training field in Yeoncheon, South Korea, on April 9.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers with K-55 self-propelled Howitzers stage at a military training field in the border city of Paju on Friday, April 5, as tensions continue to mount on the Korean peninsula.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers man a cannon at a military training field in Paju on April 5.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers stand guard at a sentry post at the border with North Korea in the Demilitarized Zone near Imjingak, South Korea, on April 5.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – A U.S. Army Patriot missile battery is visible at the U.S. Osan Air Base in South Korea on Friday, April 5.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – The U.S. Navy is moving a sea-based radar platform, like the one seen in this 2006 file photo, closer to the North Korean coast to monitor that country's military moves, including possible new missile launches, a Defense Department official said Monday, April 1.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean marines man K-55 self-propelled Howitzers at a military training field in the border city of Paju on Monday, April 1. Park Geun-hye, South Korea's new president, promised a strong military response to any North Korean provocation after North Korea announced that the two countries were in a state of war.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean anti-aircraft armored vehicles move across a temporary bridge during a river crossing drill in Hwacheon near the North Korean border on Monday, April 1.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers ride on a military truck in Paju on Friday, March 29.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – The United States said Thursday, March 28, that it flew stealth bombers over South Korea to participate in annual military exercises amid spiking tensions with North Korea. Pictured, a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber flies over South Korea's western port city of Pyeongtaek.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers gather at the foot of a mountain near a military drill field in the border city of Paju on Wednesday, March 27.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – Armed South Korean soldiers walk on a road near a military drill field in Paju on March 27.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers ride in a military truck in Paju on March 27.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – A B-52 bomber flies over the wire-topped fence of a U.S. air base in Osan, South Korea, on Tuesday, March 19.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers take part in a drill to guard the building of a state-run telecom company in Seoul against potential guerrilla attacks on Thursday, March 14.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean army soldiers jump off a military truck during a drill outside a U.S. airbase in Pyeongtaek as part of annual joint exercises with the United States on March 14.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean Marines operate K-55 self-propelled howitzers on the western island of Ganghwa near the disputed maritime frontier with North Korea on Wednesday, March 13.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean soldiers stand guard as a North Korean soldier, far center, looks on at the truce village of Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone dividing the two Koreas on March 13.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – South Korean marines patrol on the South Korea-controlled island of Yeonpyeong near the disputed waters of the Yellow Sea on Tuesday, March 12.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – In this Navy handout image taken on March 5, Lt. j.g. Matthew Harmon serves as helm safety officer aboard the guided-missile destroyer USS McCampbell during a replenishment at sea, part of Foal Eagle 2013, the joint exercises between the United States and South Korea.

Militaries and Korean tensions – U.S. Navy Boatswain's Mate 3rd Class Brittany Chiles signals to an SH-60B Seahawk helicopter as it lands on the flight deck of the destroyer USS McCampbell on March 4 in the Pacific Ocean, in this Navy handout photo.

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Militaries and Korean tensions – This March 17 Navy handout image shows the destroyer USS John S. McCain, front; the Republic of Korea Navy destroyer ROKS Seoae-Yu-Seong-Ryong, center; and the destroyer USS McCampbell moving into formation in the waters off the Korean Peninsula during exercise Foal Eagle 2013.

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Story highlights

Stephan Haggard: North Korea is mostly bluffing in its threats against South Korea

Haggard: Escalating signals of resolve suggest nervousness as much as strength

He says Kim Jong Un may not have fully consolidated his authority

Haggard: As a result, some of the rhetoric could be driven by domestic politics

March brought us a series of what pundits like to call "provocations" by North Korea. On closer inspection, Pyongyang has opted for rhetoric over actual military actions.

While Kim Jong Un's pursuit of nuclear and missile capability remains worrisome, escalating signals of resolve could suggest nervousness as much as strength.

So, is the regime in trouble?

The first round of saber-rattling came as the U.N. Security Council deliberated on a new sanctions resolution after North Korea's satellite launch in December and its third nuclear test in February. The Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a party organ dealing with North-South relations began putting out public statements in an effort to chip away at the institutions of the armistice, such as military hot lines and the stationing of a North Korean military mission in Panmunjom.

Stephan Haggard

North Korea ultimately "withdrew" from the armistice, but it had done so before and it is not clear what its recent statements actually mean. The armistice is not a peace treaty, but merely a cease fire. The armistice is stable not because of verbal commitments but because of the deterrent capability of both sides.

Is anything really different as a result of this "re-withdrawal"? It doesn't seem like it.

Equally unfortunate was North Korea's decision to renege on a number of North-South agreements, such as a North-South agreement on the denuclearization of the peninsula. But Pyongyang's pursuit of nuclear weapons had made this and a number of other agreements moot in any case.

North Korea's bluster had little if any effect on the U.N. debate. If anything, its threats may have been counterproductive. Although the resolution was portrayed as the result of a U.S.-South Korean cabal, China also signed on and the resolution was passed unanimously.

The measure opens the door for tighter financial sanctions, and there is some preliminary evidence that Beijing may be cooperating in tightening economic exchanges with the country.

South Korea returns rhetorical fire

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North Korea military 'ready to fight'

The next round of statements came as North Korea and the United States and South Korea entered an annual military training cycle. These periods are always fraught with tension, as Pyongyang denounces the routine exercises as provocative.

As the country effectively mobilizes, the North Korean press is filled with pictures of Kim Jong Un directing the troops in exercises, some of which were reportedly manipulated with Photoshop to increase their effect.

As a result of these exercises, there is some background of what might be called "ritualized escalation" at work.

But North Korea did possibly make one major misstep in arguing that it might undertake a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Announcing an intention to pre-empt is dangerous because even small tactical movements can be misinterpreted. Needless to say, such statements have to be taken seriously, and, if anything, the United States and South Korea may have over-reacted by such a public display of force.

In particular, the U.S. announced a major new ballistic missile defense initiative, training runs by B52 and B2 bombers, and an updated U.S.-ROK Combined Counter-Provocation Plan. In the last few days, the U.S. was again quite public about its deployment of jet fighters to the peninsula as well.

There is a larger game at work here that probably centers on the difficult-to-read domestic politics of North Korea. It is by no means assured that Kim Jong Un has fully consolidated his authority. By ramping up rhetoric, but exercising restraint with respect to actual military actions, the regime can count on the fact that the United States and South Korea are not going to take the first step either.

The result is that North Korea's exercises and threats of retaliation have been successful in deterring attack, even though none was coming. The regime can claim some sort of victory in staring down American threats in its two big political meetings this week, the timing of which suggest that some of the rhetoric has been driven by domestic politics.

North Korea's nuclear and missile programs constitute problems that the five parties in the region—China, Japan, South Korea, Russia and the United States—need to address through concerted action. But overheated rhetoric, however disconcerting, is not the same as an intention to attack. Coolly maintaining our deterrent and not over-reacting to hyperbole is the proper course of action. With luck, the leadership will pivot away from nuclear posturing toward economic reform, the main thing that the people of North Korea really need.

Editor's note: Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this essay said North Korea instead of the U.S. announced new military initiatives.