Doctoring The Numbers

The Windy City

You might recall that back in spring training, Acosta created a huge stir in
the Cubs' spring training camp by questioning the manhood of some of the
Cubs' young pitchers, particularly Will Ohman and Carlos
Zambrano. At the time, we all thought Acosta was nuts. It appeared for
all the world that Acosta was going to make men out of his young charges by
working their arms like a galleymaster.

Appearances can be deceiving. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see now
that Acosta's problems with Ohman had nothing to do with the fact that Ohman
's arm hurt. Acosta does not equate manhood with pitching through pain. No,
when Acosta talks about whether a pitcher is man enough to be on his staff,
he's referring to just one thing.

Strikeouts.

Strikeouts, like the 120 that Kerry Wood has in just 85 innings. That
works out to 12.71 per 9 innings, a rate achieved by just one other starting
pitcher in history:

As the list shows, though, Kerry Wood is no stranger to strikeouts. Wood
could strike out a man an inning with Oscar the Grouch as his pitching
coach.

But Kyle Farnsworth, the young fireballer who the Cubs have been all
a-twitter about ever since he started hitting 98 on the radar gun
consistently, came into the season with just 144 strikeouts in 207
major-league innings (and a 5.57 career ERA), and had never struck out a
man an inning at any pro level. All Farnsworth has done this year is strike
out 54 men in 33 innings, or 14.73 per nine innings. Among relievers with 50
or more innings, only two men have ever had a higher strikeout rate.

But hey, Farnsworth throws really, really hard; it was only a matter of time
before the strikeouts came. How about Tom Gordon, who has struck out
29 men in 17 1/3 innings? Gordon's rate of 15.06 whiffs per nine innings is
higher than Farnsworth's. It's higher than those of Benitez and Wagner. In
fact, Gordon's strikeout rate is the highest in baseball history among
pitchers with more than 10 innings.

Well sure, but Tom Gordon is an established pitcher with a great curveball
and...um...OK, he just came back from Tommy John surgery. He hadn't pitched
since May, 1999, and wasn't even ready to start the season. Yet now that he'
s back, he's striking batters out at a historic pace.

Then there's Todd Van Poppel, the mother of all pitching flops, who
had a 5.88 career ERA and hadn't struck out a man an inning since 1991 (in
one appearance). He has 40 Ks in 28 2/3 innings, or 12.56 per game.

There's also Courtney Duncan, a 26-year-old rookie who was closing
games in Double-A a year ago. He has 37 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings (10.86
per game).

Let's not forget the amazing Jeff Fassero, who has 35 strikeouts in
31 2/3 innings (9.95 per game), at age 38, after never striking out a man an
inning in any of his 10 previous major-league seasons.

That's five different Cub pitchers who have averaged more than 10 strikeouts
per nine innings, and Fassero misses qualifying by a whisker. Here are the
teams in major-league history with the most 10/10 pitchers (10 Ks per nine
innings, 10 innings pitched) on their staff:

Only three other teams have had even four 10/10 pitchers; the Cubs have
five, and that's without the luxury of having the Big Unit leading the
staff.

Almost as impressive as the Cubs' cavalcade of power pitchers has been the
performances of a starting rotation that, aside from Wood, relies on command
and guile more than pure heat.

Jason Bere, who was once a flame-thrower before numerous arm problems
derailed his career, has 60 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings, a rate of 8.1 per
game. From 1997 through 2000, his rate was just 6.75 per game.

Kevin Tapani has 54 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings, or 7.4 per game.
Much like Fassero, Tapani is recording the best strikeout rate of his career
at age 37; he'd never struck out even seven men a game before this year.

Julian Tavarez looked like a future star after he went 10-2, 2.44
with the Indians as a 22-year-old rookie in 1995. After that season, in
which Tavarez struck out 68 batters in 85 innings, Tavarez's performance
headed south, and he was only able to carve a career for himself in middle
relief, never posting an ERA under 3.80 and never striking out even 5.5
batters per nine innings. His career rate is 5.18 strikeouts per nine; last
year, he struck out just 62 batters in 120 innings, or 4.65 per nine.

This season, Tavarez has 57 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings, or 6.44 per nine.
He also has a 3.39 ERA.

Only Jon Lieber, with a piddling 70 strikeouts in 100 2/3 innings
(6.26 K/9), after striking out 192 batters in 251 innings last season (6.88
K/9), has seen his strikeout rate drop. Of course, Lieber has a career-best
3.32 ERA and has allowed barely a baserunner per inning, so Acosta hasn't
exactly dropped the ball with his ace.

The Cubs have used nine pitchers for at least 25 innings this season. Six of
them are posting the highest strikeout rates (in a season with at least 25
innings pitched) of their career. Two of the three others (Tavarez and Bere)
had a higher strikeout rate just once, in their rookie seasons: 1995 for
Tavarez, and 1992 for Bere.

Add it up, and the Cubs have struck out 594 men in 591 2/3 innings.

Let me repeat that: the Cubs have struck out 594 men. They've thrown 591 2/3
innings. They have more strikeouts than innings pitched.

The Cubs have struck out 9.04 men per nine innings. No team in major-league
history has come particularly close to that mark:

As amazing as the Cubs' strikeout numbers are, they're not alone. The
Dodgers (553 strikeouts in 612 innings), the Yankees (555 Ks in 608 IP), and
the Red Sox (542 Ks in 611 IP) are all on pace to break the Braves' record
for strikeouts in a season. What in the name of Richie Sexson is
going on here?

Well, strikeouts have been going up around baseball for years, and that
increase has only accelerated since the strike ended. Of the top 25
strikeout totals recorded by pitching staffs in history, 22 of them have
occurred since 1996.

Strikeouts originally peaked during the high-mound, big-strike-zone era of
the mid-1960s. In 1967, the American League struck out an average of 6.14
times per game, a record that would stand until 1994, when the National
League struck out 6.31 times per game. Since then, a new record has been set
almost every year by the National League (on account of having pitchers bat
instead of the DH). The highest league-wide strikeout rates ever:

The climb in strikeout rates over the last six or seven years cannot be
traced to any rule change, but rather to the sabermetric revolution that has
begun to take hold in baseball. In short: players and teams are beginning to
realize that strikeouts aren't significantly worse than any other kind of
out, and if swinging for the fences all the time leads to more whiffs, so be
it.

This season, though, there is a rule change that has directly led to more
strikeouts. With the aid of the taller strike zone, strikeout rates have
increased roughly 4% from last season's totals in each league. AL pitchers
have fanned 6.43 batters per game, near their all-time record totals in
1997, and in the NL, pitchers have bumped up their strikeout rate to 6.96
batters per game, which would easily be an all-time record.

How times have changed. Between 1893--when the pitching rubber was moved to
its current distance--and 1945, only seven pitchers ever struck out more
batters per nine innings than the average NL pitcher has this season:
Rube Waddell (five times), Bob Feller (four times), Dazzy
Vance (three times), Walter Johnson (twice), Joe Wood,
Rube Marquard, Dutch Leonard, and Johnny Vander Meer
(once each).

So yes, there are some extenuating circumstances behind the Cubs' assault on
the all-time strikeout record. But so what? Did Mark McGwire hit 70
homers in the dead-ball era? Did Ed Walsh win 41 games while
pitching in a five-man rotation?

The fact is this: Oscar Acosta has taken a staff of boys and turned them
into men. He has turned a pitching staff that struck out 1,143 men last
season (fourth in the NL), and posted a 5.25 ERA (15th in the NL), into the
most overpowering collection of flamethrowing, gas-cooking, cheese-chucking,
deuce-bending, bat-sawing fireballers the world has ever seen.

And as any Cubs fan will no doubt tell you, the fact that they're on pace to
strike out more than 1,400 men isn't the most impressive thing about the
pitching staff. No, that would be the fact that the Cubs--the Chicago Cubs,
who have to overcome the Friendly Confines of Wrigley Field and the
unfriendly tradition of 93 years without a championship--are leading the
National League in ERA.

The last time that happened? 1945. Yes, that 1945.

Denizens of Hell, brace yourselves: the forecast is calling for a cold front
to come through in about four months.

Rany Jazayerli is an author of Baseball Prospectus.

Rany Jazayerli is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Rany's other articles.
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