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Venezuela's president hopes Carnival takes edge off protests

Annual bacchanal moved forward to coincide with anniversary of Hugo Chavez’s death, amid signs that opposition movement may be starting to fizzle.

An activist faces National Guard troopers during a protest in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on Thursday. Weeks of sometimes violent demonstrations have taken a toll on the bitterly divided country. (ORLANDO PARADA / AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

CARACAS, VENEZUELA—Venezuelans will likely find out in another week or so whether this year’s season of sometimes violent political protest is going to widen or wither.

Just now, however, it’s time to party, as this South American country’s annual carnival festivities erupt once again.

In fact, the leftist government of President Nicolas Maduro moved the celebrations forward by two days this year, declaring Thursday and Friday of this week to be part of a series of national holidays that extend through next Wednesday, culminating in the first anniversary of the death of longtime Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez.

Maduro is clearly betting that several days of bacchanalian excess will take at least some of the sting out of an opposition movement that has been mobilizing across the country for more than two weeks, staging massive protest marches, erecting makeshift street barriers and engaging in nightly cat-and-mouse altercations with police.

Roughly 12 people have died in the conflict so far, and approximately 150 have been injured.

The disturbances may not be over yet, but at least some observers expect the troubles to diminish in the days ahead before petering out altogether, at least for a while.

“I think it’s already starting to die down,” says Gregory Wilpert, co-founder of a website called Venezuelanalysis.com and author of two books on the country’s politics. “The protests are just too unpopular. The opposition leadership realize that this is not a winning strategy.”

The protests have been a reaction to a range of grievances, including shortages of consumer goods, spiralling inflation, high crime rates and government repression.

But the recent disturbances have come nowhere close to toppling Venezuela’s self-proclaimed “revolutionary” government, assuming that was ever their aim, and many observers believe that politics here will soon revert to business as usual — a tense standoff between two bitterly opposed sides in a deeply divided country.

“I don’t think you are going to see an opposition overthrow of the government,” said Sarah Kinosian, Latin American program associate at the Washington-based Center for International Policy. “The military has come out full-force behind Maduro and the party in power.”

A former bus driver with a somewhat awkward personality, Maduro came out swinging against the protesters, denouncing them as “fascists” intent on a coup d’état. He staged huge counter-demonstrations and even called in the air force to intimidate dissidents in the western city of San Cristobal, a hotbed of opposition support.

“Definitely, having fighter jets flying over San Cristobal was a development you wouldn’t have seen under Chavez,” said Kinosian. “That was a more extreme response than I was expecting.”

As a man who dwells in the shadow of a legend, Maduro at times seems determined to out-Chavez Chavez, no easy feat.

Still, he and his government seem to be weathering the latest opposition assault — but that is just the beginning.

“Maduro will now be faced with the real challenge,” said Wilpert, “and the real challenge is the economy.”

Racked by an annual inflation rate of more than 50 per cent, not to mention stubborn shortages of basic consumer goods and a raging black market for foreign currency, the Venezuelan economy is in perilous shape.

So far, the government has responded to its financial troubles by introducing a somewhat liberalized foreign currency regime, making it easier for Venezuelan business people to obtain dollars legally, but it is not yet clear whether this measure will be sufficient to slow inflation or cool the currency black market.

Some say it will not.

“It is by no means enough,” said Kinosian. “Inflation is just rampant and out of control.”

Meanwhile, the shortages of consumer staples are likely to continue, fuelling more discontent.

There may be further protests, but that has been the pattern in Venezuela for more than a decade. The opposition takes to the streets, its demonstrations achieve few clear goals, and so things go back to what is now the norm — a condition of brooding and pervasive unease — until tempers boil over again.

It’s a state of affairs that may well persist, with occasional and possibly violent interruptions, until Venezuelans next go to the polls in presidential elections.

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