Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

I know that the vast majority of Skins fans would howl in delight if the Skins had replaced Greg Manusky with Todd Bowles. Question is - what would that delight be based on?

Here are some comparative #'s. But before you look at them, keep in mind that Manusky has 11 years of experience as a DC. Bowles, just 3 years, sandwiched in between failed head coaching gigs in Miami and New York.

I've only included Manusky's last 2 seasons since that seemed most relevant.

You can assess those rankings on your own. What I see is that Bowles had one really good year as a DC in Arizona. The rest was decidedly average. That's not a criticism. I think the performance of a DC in the NFL is very much tied to personnel and how well a coaches system fits that personnel.

When looking at Manusky's 2 year record, I think the surprising thing is, the Skins D in 2018 was statistically respectable. Also of note - the 'horrific' Skins D significantly improved in all but one category this year, Passing Yds.

I'll just finish by saying these aren't 'clean house' numbers. I know some of you scoff at stats, but they are real - as compared to opinion. The data doesn't show you everything. But it does show you some measurable truths. If you looked at our 2018 rankings dispassionately, you'd have to wonder why we are so determined to fire our DC.

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

Well, I can tell you now, I was all for seriously considering Bowles as DC.

But that was also tied to my hopes and prayers that Jay "The Loser" Gruden would have been fired, and the new incoming coach would at least interview Bowles for the DC job. If nothing else, I liked his aggressive playcalling in his, albeit short, stint as Cards DC.

However, Gruden was mistakenly retained, and therefore, I believe the team, and the staff, should by and large, be kept intact.
The injury card is the only possible thing that saved Gruden's job. That means everybody involved (GruAllynder) is committed to the current setup.
So, I push all my chips to the middle and say, let it ride.

Stroll into the playoffs next year, or EVERYONE except the owner gets fired.

0000

"Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and **** the prom queen"

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

well...Boone....some thoughts on statistics:

1. The variables in your list are not independent so the true story is somewhat hidden; I don't have any of the data but one can make a reasonable assumption that run defense "improvement" from 2017 to 2018 factored in changes in some of the other variables (e.g., overall yards)

2. Statistically respectable is, of course, a value judgment and not an analytic term.

3. A point statistic doesn't mean a whole lot without some context such as variance, outliers, etc.

4. Far as I know, there is no stat for coaches getting outthought during a game and it's complement inability to adjust.

5. What changed on defense? For the most part, having two tackles on defense who fell into our laps during the draft (i.e. ,not even our FO could screw it up) and the improvement in Ioannidus. Perhaps the line coach is responsible more so than DC for better run defense but no obvious/public source way to know.

6. Of course, stats that are left out of the discussion are also important, for example:
- interceptions/broken up passes by LBs
- first downs on third and short, third and long allowed through the air
- TD passes greater than 20 yards (randomly picked number) allowed
- number of blitzing downs versus average yardage surrendered when blitzing
- sacks against bottom 15 offenses, sacks against top 15 offenses

You get the idea. For my own part, I didn't see awful. What I saw was "time to turn the TV off. The Offense sucks and the defense has some run stoppers and little else above average."

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

Originally Posted by fansince62

well...Boone....some thoughts on statistics:

1. The variables in your list are not independent so the true story is somewhat hidden; I don't have any of the data but one can make a reasonable assumption that run defense "improvement" from 2017 to 2018 factored in changes in some of the other variables (e.g., overall yards)

2. Statistically respectable is, of course, a value judgment and not an analytic term.

3. A point statistic doesn't mean a whole lot without some context such as variance, outliers, etc.

4. Far as I know, there is no stat for coaches getting outthought during a game and it's complement inability to adjust.

5. What changed on defense? For the most part, having two tackles on defense who fell into our laps during the draft (i.e. ,not even our FO could screw it up) and the improvement in Ioannidus. Perhaps the line coach is responsible more so than DC for better run defense but no obvious/public source way to know.

6. Of course, stats that are left out of the discussion are also important, for example:
- interceptions/broken up passes by LBs
- first downs on third and short, third and long allowed through the air
- TD passes greater than 20 yards (randomly picked number) allowed
- number of blitzing downs versus average yardage surrendered when blitzing
- sacks against bottom 15 offenses, sacks against top 15 offenses

You get the idea. For my own part, I didn't see awful. What I saw was "time to turn the TV off. The Offense sucks and the defense has some run stoppers and little else above average."

Stats weren't left out, I just have limited time - if you want to take the time to find and post I'll consider them Of course stats don't tell the whole story, I acknowledged that up front. But all of those things you referenced are part of overall success and failure - which absolutely contributes to those more global stats.

With maybe one or two exceptions, every defense in the NFL is lacking in some major areas. Between injuries, players aging out, limited ability to fill holes short-term in the draft and free agency, there are always going to be weaknesses/deficits that have to be masked or minimized.

'Two tackles who fell into our lap'? What does that even mean Al? They were there. We highly coveted them. And we took them. I know we don't want to give the org even a shred of credit when they don't eff it up, but come on...they've made some pretty good choices in the past several drafts.

I think where some of the criticism of the defensive coaching staff is overblown is in not recognizing how much pressure our offense has put on them. When the offense was clicking in 2017, our D looked like a top 5 unit. And even this season, our rankings were much higher early in the year (we were a top 3 D for awhile early on) until the offense collapsed and the D was on the field for huge portions of the game, often with little rest between series. Those details also matter and should be factored into the assessment.

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

I considered the factors you mention. They obviously played a role. How significant I am not so sure. A good passing team like the Saints kicked our butts; the Cowboys sign a decent receiver and we again get our butts kicked; three ways of looking at a defense tiring: too much time on the field, poor backups for workable rotation or a combination of the two. My suspicion is that it is poor backups factors more than some imagine; if every defense lacks in some major areas raises the obvious question of why do some perform better - coaching perhaps?; we have no bonafide stars/game changers on defense.

I agree the defense was better in 2018. It was obvious the improvement came from the interior run defense.

Overall, do you believe the team has made good choices in the draft? Have the choices been productive from top to bottom. We don't know because of injuries probably isn't a good answer. IMO, the answer is no. Aside from high first round picks, the record has not been pretty. Not a single gem. Perhaps not even an above average player - Kerrigan meets that...how many others? The biggest find this team has made was an aging RB his OK bud worked into the conversation.

So, where are we? A defense which is better than the detritous we were forced to endure in previous seasons - no doubt. Playoff quality or championship quality? I doubt it. An offense with so many strategic gaps that improvement will not come in one season...especially if the years long QB search/drama continues.

It's odd that you kick off your thought process by marking 2018 defense by comparison to the 2017 defense...and then claim that same 2017 defense looked to be top 5. For myself, I think the defense is decent against the rush, notthing to write hoime about for pass defense, and led by average coaches. What is needed is more talent at the edge and pass defense. We have no settled solution at teh safeties, Norman appears to have settled into a comfortable barely above average, and some believe a converted receiver was the second coming of Daryl Green? I don't think so. One has to be careful. I have learned over the years that many Skins players look good simply because they replaced not so good. Easy to be deceived.

I'm all for focusing the draft on buttressing the defense and not worrying about the offiense. The offense is gonna be the pits regardless - probably for the next several years. Like many I have zero faith in this FO and think Gruden has shown us his Bengal best.

Here's hoping the Gints don't draft their way into a three-year turn-around next season where they fly right past us to join the other two play-off teams in our division.

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

Two things.

One - this comparison is a dance of the dinosaurs. Neither Manusky or Bowles is the answer. We need to move on from ex-Redskins from back in the day and go out and find the NEXT great DC from the assistant ranks, not look for more retreads.

Two - Stats tell only part of the story. What we saw here was chaos in 2018 on defense, with players out of control making inappropriate public comments about coaches, teammates and fans. We saw guys like Zach Brown and Montae Nicholson get in hot water off the field. On the field this unit failed to show up for several games and that was with a fairly healthy lineup.

So, I would not be so quick to credit any year over year stats. The seeing eye watching this unit on the field over 16 games tells me at least that new blood in the form of a new leader is required to move forward in 2019.

Re: Todd Bowles vs. Greg Manusky: Would he really be an upgrade?

If we can get an upgrade over Manusky I'm all for it. I don't really disagree with your assessment. What jerks my chain is the rampant idea that 'we can't do any worse than Manusky'. We obviously CAN and HAVE done far worse than Manusky If I had any faith in the org's ability to find a sure-fire innovative, aggressive DC, I'd be a lot less forgiving of the job Manusky has done. I think he's done a decent job these past 2 years, given all of the challenges.

So if we're going to replace him, we'd better find the 2nd coming of Wade Phillips.