~ The daily blog written by ITL's Neil Stratton

The Box

As we wind down the college football season, I’m getting more and more calls from agents and parents on issues regarding the 2016 draft. Some are related to agent selection, and many are related to leaving early. Maybe you have similar questions. This week, I’m going to discuss these topics and the different factors associated with the topic.

Today, I got a call from a recently certified agent who’s been in talks with a redshirt junior at a major BCS school. The young man is a receiver, and my friend asked what he should tell the young man, who’s strongly weighing departing for the draft.

The first thing I asked was, does he have the ‘three legs of the stool,’ i.e., size, speed and production? The agent responded that he has two of them: he’s put up wild numbers this year, and he believes the young man has sub-4.5 speed. The only problem is that he’s well below 6-feet tall. Though that’s not a deal-breaker, it’s become an important box to check. Of the 263 receivers who opened the season on NFL rosters, 193 were 6-0 or taller. What’s more, there are only 44 receivers under 5-11 in the league, and over the last three draft classes, only 32 are under 6-feet; 19 were undrafted free agents.

It all added up to a young man who probably fits as a late-round selection and maybe a camp guy.

On the other hand, he’s got enough credits to graduate. He’s fully healthy; there’s no guarantee the same will be true this time next year (and scouts are not especially forgiving). There’s a great chance one or more of the coaches on staff will be elsewhere next season, as well as his quarterback. In other words, he’s in a box.

My friend really wants to do what’s best for the young man, but he’s in a box, too. He’s already talked to scouting sources who’ve drawn the same conclusion. He can recommend that the young man put his name in with the draft advisory board, but given the new way the board is handling reviews, it’s unlikely there will be any useful information.

If he recommends that the kid go back for his senior year, he comes across as education-oriented and well-meaning, but if there’s an injury, it may dash the young man’s chance to do something special. If he encourages the receiver to leave early, he may look like the stereotypical greedy agent if he goes undrafted.

Unfortunately, many young men are facing a similar dilemma. There’s no clear, cut-and-dried answer. That’s what makes this time of year so difficult.

This week, we’ll discuss the factors one must use to make this decision. We’ll discuss the factors one must consider when seeking feedback from scouts, coaches and family members, and we’ll handle other questions we get via Twitter or in the comments section of this post. If you know someone facing this dilemma, I hope you’ll encourage him to check us out this week.

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4 thoughts on “The Box”

Based on the prospects potential (however that is gauged), when do agents start exploring insurance for players? This is not a foreign concept as previous college-turned-pro athletes “hedge” the risk of injury late in their college careers.

Hey DH. The players rated first-round usually get one for their senior year of eligibility around this time, i.e., the players that decide to come back for one more year get a policy in Nov or Dec. Regarding health insurance for players that are about to train for the draft, it’s complicated. Players still on scholarship, that don’t withdraw from school, are covered by the school’s policy. Players that pull out of school may have their agents pick up a policy to cover them, but they also may roll the dice that the all-star game they get hurt in or the facility where they suffer a training injury has a policy they can use. Hope that helps.

I’m wondering what real benefits staying another year could have for this athlete. If he already has the production and speed but not the size then those three seem to be set in stone. He has the credits to graduate so school will be completed.So many factors like the ones you mentioned above can work against him and go wrong which could take that production away from him. Wouldn’t the agent want him entering and getting a year head start working with the pro coaches and polishing his game at the NFL level or is there more of a worry he won’t be ready and can benefit from maturing in college another year? To me it just seems like entering this year would be the decision that makes most sense in this particular scenario.

That was the point I was trying (and maybe failing) to make. He’s probably not going to get taller in a year and there’s no guarantee he’ll put up the same numbers. Scouts won’t give him credit for his junior year; if he falls as a senior, they’ll forget his junior year. For a lot of reasons, he has a strong case for leaving early.