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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Egypt on a knife edge---another Syria! It's not 2012 we should worry about.

The Middle East, indeed the world is about to witness another nation slip into bedlam and civil war. The only group in hits ancient country that can stop this is the military and unfortunately that in itself is not a healthy situation for a country that had so much hope a year or so ago.

The Muslim Brotherhood and their Prime Minister are set on making Egypt an Islamic Republic. That will never work for the simple reason that Egypt is far more diverse than other Middle Eastern nations. The Coptic Christians for example, rightly fear for their safety in under the proposed constitution. Other more moderate Islamic groups also have reason not to trust PM Morsi. Yes, the PM has pulled out some of the more controversial parts of the proposed constitution but that is merely a delaying strategy for his more sinister plans.

We have seen terrible slaughter in Syria and it seems almost inevitable that Egypt will follow suit unless more level headed thinking prevails. The USA is taking a strange stance on this developing crisis. It has been suggested that the USA would rather have Morsi and his cronies in power than an even more stridently Islamic Government. Why are we surprised at this position, given some of the crazy foreign policy actions we have seen in the past.

Similarly, Russia will no doubt take an opposite position, simply because that is what they do. As for China and the EU---well they will just line up as they usually do, not taking into account the real deep seated issues of the region, but one that suits their alliances or trade needs.

In the meantime, the opposing forces in Egypt will flex their muscles and propel their nation towards an abyss that will be almost impossible to step back from. That in turn will endanger other delicate balances in the Middle East. 2013 is not going to be a good year. Hell, we may well get over the Mayan 2012 prophecy, but next year lookslike the stars are badly aligned.