Undercooked report

Published: Friday, October 4, 2013 at 08:00 AM.

The Florida Legislature commissioned an outside study of the effects expanded gambling operations would have on the state. Lawmakers are expected to rely on its conclusions when deciding during the 2014 session whether to adopt a comprehensive gaming plan.

Although a draft report was released this week by New Jersey-based Spectrum Gaming Group, it came out of the oven a bit soft and was sent back to the authors for some additional cooking.

Lawmakers weren’t satisfied with the report’s conclusion that expanded gambling in Florida would have a modest effect at best on the state’s economy. Spectrum said it needed another month to huddle with Amy Baker, the Legislature’s chief economist, “to fully review the results of the (economic) models” in calculating gambling’s economic impact.

When legislators don’t like the numbers they get from third-party studies and ask for a do-over, it can raise warning flags that politics is unduly influencing what should be unbiased quantitative research.

In this case, though, it appears the report may indeed be off the mark.

For example, it predicts that if the Legislature eliminates a law requiring pari-mutuels to run a minimum number of races to operate poker rooms (a move called “decoupling”) that six tracks — including Ebro Greyhound Park — would be out of the racing business within three years.

Ebro says that’s hogwash. Although Ebro has for years supported decoupling, it has maintained that the move would not substantially diminish its racing operations.

The Florida Legislature commissioned an outside study of the effects expanded gambling operations would have on the state. Lawmakers are expected to rely on its conclusions when deciding during the 2014 session whether to adopt a comprehensive gaming plan.

Although a draft report was released this week by New Jersey-based Spectrum Gaming Group, it came out of the oven a bit soft and was sent back to the authors for some additional cooking.

Lawmakers weren’t satisfied with the report’s conclusion that expanded gambling in Florida would have a modest effect at best on the state’s economy. Spectrum said it needed another month to huddle with Amy Baker, the Legislature’s chief economist, “to fully review the results of the (economic) models” in calculating gambling’s economic impact.

When legislators don’t like the numbers they get from third-party studies and ask for a do-over, it can raise warning flags that politics is unduly influencing what should be unbiased quantitative research.

In this case, though, it appears the report may indeed be off the mark.

For example, it predicts that if the Legislature eliminates a law requiring pari-mutuels to run a minimum number of races to operate poker rooms (a move called “decoupling”) that six tracks — including Ebro Greyhound Park — would be out of the racing business within three years.

Ebro says that’s hogwash. Although Ebro has for years supported decoupling, it has maintained that the move would not substantially diminish its racing operations.

Greyhound racing has been declining in popularity for decades, which is why card rooms were authorized at pari-mutuel facilities in 1996 to help attract more customers. State law mandates that in order to offer poker the tracks must maintain a minimum number of “performances” (which consist of at least eight live races). That can range from 100 performances all the way to 394; Ebro’s required minimum is 167.

Although decoupling would significantly benefit some tracks, particularly in South Florida, that need the flexibility to cut back on a losing bet, Ebro says it still would offer 100 performances because of its “unique situation” — being located close to the tourist destination of Panama City Beach. Because of that, Associate Manager Mark Hess told The News Herald’s Matthew Beaton, race attendance at Ebro during summer remains strong.

Legislative staff also took issue with the Spectrum report failing to take into account the expiration in 2015 of the state’s gambling compact with the Seminole Indian Tribe, which receives exclusive license to operate casino card games. Spectrum was asked to revise its analysis to include scenarios under which the money from the card games — about $233 million a year — would decrease or disappear altogether.

In a letter to legislators, Senate President Don Gaetz insisted that the “vast majority of the report is in final form” and that “the Legislature has not and will not request that any outcomes be changed.” The issue, legislative staff says, is about methodology, not conclusions.