nekom:HotWingConspiracy: So the sanctions worked, this is what we wanted.

I'm not really sure you can credit the sanctions for this, but it is an encouraging development.

They didn't hurt. I think they helped depress the Iranian economy enough that a relative moderate/liberal got voted into power and is much more willing to go against Ahmadinnerjacket's rhetoric regarding the US and Israel....well the US at least.

I'm more scared that Israel will take a page from the GOP and attack Iran and then go "SEE! SANCTIONS DIDN'T WORK!"

Then what would you credit? Iran has been hammered by double-digit inflation since the new sanctions were imposed and has become desperate for access to cash, and those are the things they're currently seeking relief from. You think it's just a coincidence that Iran, after more than two decades of nuke work they're now willing to backtrack on at least in part, suddenly decided to become all buddy-buddy with the west?

skozlaw:Then what would you credit? Iran has been hammered by double-digit inflation since the new sanctions were imposed and has become desperate for access to cash, and those are the things they're currently seeking relief from. You think it's just a coincidence that Iran, after more than two decades of nuke work they're now willing to backtrack on at least in part, suddenly decided to become all buddy-buddy with the west?

Remember how they almost had a revolution? I'm thinking this is more about internal pressure for change. Maybe the sanctions played some role, but sanctions alone have never seemed to get much done. This isn't best Korea where the people are shielded from the western world, they see nice things and say "Hey! We want nice things too!"

skozlaw:You think it's just a coincidence that Iran, after more than two decades of nuke work they're now willing to backtrack on at least in part, suddenly decided to become all buddy-buddy with the west?

Those that seem to be very worried that we might not be at war with someone sure do seem to be desparate to talk up the whole, "they are coming right at us!" angle lately.

However, that whole they are gonna nuke us thing already took quite a hit last year.

I know this may come as a shock to some of you, but Iran is a country made of more than one person. Sometimes these different people have different ideas about things. Like, how to treat your neighbors, or how not to be complete dicks. I know, hard to believe, right?

The sanctions may have been a contributing factor at some level, but I think the strongest driving forces behind the current negotiations are...

1. A growing moderate base of voters in Iran that are opposed to the anti-western, hardline stance, as exemplified by the 2009 election protests.2. A US administration and populous that is less hawkish towards Iran than during previous periods.3. The steady decline of Israel's influence over western relations with Iran.4. Russia's increasing ability to blunt the US's power to unilaterally dictate the world's middle-east policy.

BullBearMS:positronica: A US administration and populous that is less hawkish towards Iran than during previous periods.

Huh?

Obama has been beating the whole "Iran is coming right for us and for Israel too" drum as hard as any Republican.

JERUSALEM (AP) - Iran is about a year away from developing a nuclear weapon and the United States remains committed to doing everything in its power to prevent that from happening, President Barack Obama said in an exclusive interview aired Thursday on Israeli TV.

Just days before he is to arrive in Israel for his first presidential visit, Obama told Israel's Channel 2 TV that while he still prefers diplomacy over force, but that a nuclear Iran is a "red line" and all options remain on the table to stop it.

Not too long after Secretary of Defense Panetta admitted that we knew full well that Iran wasn't even trying to develop nukes on national television.

I think it's a stretch to say the administration has been beating the drum as hard as any republican. Bush labeled Iran as part of the "axis of evil" with the implication that regime change not only was justified but would likely follow after the expected cake walk in Iraq. McCain made it pretty clear that he thought the US should have been bombing Iran already, and Romney implied the same thing by saying he would basically defer to Israel's judgement during a time when Israel was calling for the US to bomb immediately. The current administration, while still talking tough from time to time, has rejected Israel's calls for immediate military action numerous times, and has actively told the senate on multiple occasions to stop trying to pass more sanctions and to just let the negotiations with Iran progress freely. The Iranians have clearly seen those actions and believe that a chance for legitimate negotiations is being presented.

somedude210:nekom: HotWingConspiracy: So the sanctions worked, this is what we wanted.

I'm not really sure you can credit the sanctions for this, but it is an encouraging development.

They didn't hurt. I think they helped depress the Iranian economy enough that a relative moderate/liberal got voted into power and is much more willing to go against Ahmadinnerjacket's rhetoric regarding the US and Israel....well the US at least.

I'm more scared that Israel will take a page from the GOP and attack Iran and then go "SEE! SANCTIONS DIDN'T WORK!"

The bombing in Beirut this morning is not making that fear better.

So I've been reading through some blog archives from 2002-2004 written from a very Jacksonian perspective.

I think that we forget just how farked up Saddam was and just how scared we were. We "knew" that he had chemical weapons because he had just recently used them on his own people, and we thought he was working towards nukes. We also caught him hosting terrorist training camps, reselling food from "oil for food" to fund rearming, watched as he funded the Palestinian Authority's paying $25K to the family of a suicide bomber. He was an evil, evil dude who looked like a potential threat to America right when we were dealing with brown people actually being a threat, and the Cold War "We're all going to die in nuclear fire" people were freaking out because they were really worried about the terrorists getting nukes (The true meaning of "Axis of Evil": countries that have nuke programs that we think might be stupid enough to hand nukes to terrorists).

And in all honesty: Why doesn't Iran have nukes? They've been trying for 40 years. If you can get the material and one or two engineers who know what they're doing, it's high-precision1940's machining technology.

Are they that stupid? Is the Mossad just that good? Are they that smart, but missing the entire point of North Korea (Namely: We haven't invaded because it'd get us into another land war with China and no one wants to pay for getting them up to speed with the modern world, NOT because they have nukes. Hell, we invaded Iraq because we thought he *might* have nukes and be stupid enough to use them)?

/And the Israel gets even more freaked out than us because if Iran drops a nuke on us, we write off Louisville, KY and use the other 49.9 states to commit genocide, whereas if Iran drops a nuke on Tel Aviv, they're done as a nation.

meyerkev:And in all honesty: Why doesn't Iran have nukes? They've been trying for 40 years. If you can get the material and one or two engineers who know what they're doing, it's high-precision1940's machining technology.

That's really the reason why I doubt they've ever really wanted nukes. They may have dropped hints but more of a "seriously, don't fark with us" type of deal than a "you'll be sorry *BOOOOM*" way.

meyerkev:Are they that stupid? Is the Mossad just that good? Are they that smart, but missing the entire point of North Korea (Namely: We haven't invaded because it'd get us into another land war with China and no one wants to pay for getting them up to speed with the modern world, NOT because they have nukes. Hell, we invaded Iraq because we thought he *might* have nukes and be stupid enough to use them)?

Until proven otherwise, the reactors they've been building has been for the most part have been for domestic electricity. Israel will never believe it, but if they really wanted a nuke, they'd have one by now.

meyerkev:Are they that stupid? Is the Mossad just that good? Are they that smart, but missing the entire point of North Korea (Namely: We haven't invaded because it'd get us into another land war with China and no one wants to pay for getting them up to speed with the modern world, NOT because they have nukes. Hell, we invaded Iraq because we thought he *might* have nukes and be stupid enough to use them)?

/And the Israel gets even more freaked out than us because if Iran drops a nuke on us, we write off Louisville, KY and use the other 49.9 states to commit genocide, whereas if Iran drops a nuke on Tel Aviv, they're done as a nation.

We invaded Iraq for more than just the suspicion. But the Israelis have a valid concern if Tel Aviv gets bombed, as that would probably be a precursor to an Arab-Israeli War 2: Jihadi-Jew Boogaloo