This is the year. This is really, quite possibly, the year of the first Triple Crown since 1978.

Pia Catton explains why she's putting her bet on Orb to win Preakness this weekend, and the first Triple Crown since 1978.

Because if Kentucky Derby-winning Orb can edge out from his rail post to win Saturday's Preakness Stakes (NBC, 4:30 p.m. ET), then there is no question—barring all superstitions and acts of God—that he can win the June 8 Belmont Stakes.

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I say this now because after Orb shines in Baltimore, everyone will declare they knew it all along. Commentators will pontificate. People will scramble for tickets to the Belmont. If you're remotely interested, fire up your credit card and buy 'em now. Which is what I say to people when they ask what Broadway show to see. Sometimes they listen. Sometimes they wind up waiting a year to see "The Book of Mormon."

Right now, this horse has everything he needs to justify confidence. In most years, "Big Sandy," the not-so-affectionate nickname for Belmont's track, is the problem. Twelve horses since Affirmed in 1978 have won the Derby and the Preakness only to miss out in New York. For some, it was the distance: At a mile and a half, it's the longest race in the Triple Crown series. And it's at the end of a grueling five-week push. Last year, injury caused I'll Have Another to scratch the day before the race.

Photos

Women waited for the race to begin Saturday in Baltimore. Patrick Smith/Getty Images

But this year is different. Belmont Park is Orb's home track. "He's trained over it a whole bunch, so I know he's going to like it," said trainer Shug McGaughey. "He knows the paddock, he knows the way to the racetrack…and knows his way home."

Familiarity is not the only factor, but it is significant in keeping 3-year-old colts—the excitable teenagers of the equine world—relaxed. "That's a pretty settling factor," said McGaughey, 62.

For Orb, the bigger hurdle in making history may be Saturday at Pimlico Race Course for the Preakness. But there's no reason to think he can't crush it.

He has now won his last five races. In the Kentucky Derby, he beat five of the eight runners he'll face in the Preakness. The best of that lot, Mylute, finished fifth. Oxbow was behind him in sixth. Will Take Charge ran eighth, Itsmyluckyday 15th and Goldencents in 17th.

The remaining three contenders are "new shooters," who skipped the Derby. Among them is Titletown Five, who is 1 for 7. The buzz (inexplicably) is for Departing, whose last race in the Illinois Derby was the equivalent of Double-A baseball. Then there's Govenor Charlie, a lightly-raced colt who wasn't deemed ready for the Derby.

If these horses are half as game as Orb, they'll be lucky to finish within a few lengths of him. The short turnaround is tough for Derby runners, but Orb's record suggests he can handle it: His first win (as a 2-year-old) came after finishing fourth in a race 14 days prior.

Granted, the Preakness is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby, a fact that can favor speed horses. Which Orb is not. He's a closer: three-quarters of a mile into the Derby, he was 17th out of 19 horses. But by the home stretch, he was in second, positioned for the win. The man who guided him there was Joel Rosario, who you'll find variously referred to as the hottest jockey in the country, hemisphere or world. It may not be hyperbole. This season, Rosario set a record for the most number of wins (35) in the spring meet at Keeneland, and he won the $10 million Dubai World Cup aboard 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in March. Who do you want riding Orb—and getting him out of the worst possible post position? This guy.

If there's rain on Saturday…or on Belmont Stakes day, Orb has proved he loves a sloppy track: He splashed his way handily down the stretch on Derby day.

If the Preakness pace shapes up to be fast, Orb's Derby performance shows it's not a problem: The first half-mile there was run in a blazing 45.33 seconds. If the pace is slow, his Florida Derby win does the same: The opening half-mile in that race was run in a leisurely 48.56 seconds.

And then there's the fact that his bloodline goes back to Secretariat, who in 1973 became the first horse to win the Triple Crown since 1948. Coincidentally, Orb won the Derby by 2½ lengths, the same margin of victory as Secretariat.

When Secretariat won, the world had spent 25 years waiting for a Triple Crown winner. If Orb wins all three this year, it would end a 35-year drought.

This should be making McGaughey, a Hall of Fame trainer, a ball of nerves. But he has reason to be calm. Until this spring, he had achieved almost everything a trainer can—winning nine Breeders' Cup races and a Belmont Stakes. But missing from his resume was the Kentucky Derby. What McGaughey needed most was to win the Run for the Roses. Like it or not, it is part of what defines a top trainer.

Now that he's notched the win, everything else is gravy. There's no shame in coming up short in a Triple Crown bid: The last trainer to be successful was Laz Barrera, who died in 1991.

McGaughey says he's taking a relaxed attitude. For a good reason: "I think that a horse can sense nervousness," he said.

If it doesn't happen this year, so be it. But if a horse like Orb can't do it, we might need to stop pretending that any modern thoroughbred can.

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