Contenders in Line to Be Pope

By

Liam Moloney And

Giada Zampano

Updated Feb. 12, 2013 12:01 a.m. ET

ROME—The cardinals who will elect the next pope are likely to favor a compromise figure similar to the current pontiff: a traditionalist in doctrine who is open to building bridges between the Vatican and the modern world, Vatican experts said.

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The cardinals will look for "someone who has a combination of theological stances, but who also best addresses where we are seeing the church going today," said Francesco Cesareo, president of Assumption College in Worcester, Mass.

The papal conclave—the secretive meeting of Roman Catholic cardinals to elect a new pope—is expected to start shortly after the end of February, when Pope Benedict XVI, at 85 years old, said Monday he would step down.

The more than 120 voting cardinals will likely debate whether to select a low-key gradualist or someone who is going to govern with grand gestures, such as Pope Benedict's predecessor John Paul II. In recent conclaves, cardinals have been split between those who take a more conservative approach to the church's teaching and those open to changing some of the age-old tenets of Catholicism.

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While Pope Benedict has often been described as an arch-conservative because of his past role as the top enforcer of church doctrine, he made some reformist moves. He reorganized the Curia, the Vatican's administration, creating a new division aimed at luring new faithful to the Catholic flock outside Europe and North America, where church attendance has dwindled. He was the first pope on Twitter.

"The pontificate of Benedict has combined tradition and innovation. I don't believe that the conclave will break up this heritage," said Francesco Perfetti, professor of contemporary history at Rome's Luiss University.

At the last conclave, in April 2005, cardinals had more time to prepare. The ailing former pontiff, John Paul II, had been widely expected for months to die.

There is a saying among Vatican watchers that cardinals who are tipped as popes before the conclave begins rarely actually get the job. "The race is really wide open," said Giuseppe Di Leo, a longtime Vatican journalist for Italian radio Radio Radicale.

At the moment, one of the leading papabili, or papal contenders, is 71-year-old Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola, the archbishop of Milan, a high-profile position in the church. A scholar of Muslim-Christian relations, he is also seen as a candidate with expertise on interreligious dialogue, which is one of the most pressing issues facing the Vatican.

"Before Benedict's resignation, the Italian [cardinals] would have been the favorite, thanks to their experience with the Curia, but now the bets are off," said Mr. Di Leo.

During the conclave that led to Pope Benedict's election, there was much speculation that a pope might be chosen from one of the continents where the Catholic Church is growing fastest: Africa and Latin America.

Among the papabili from these areas of the world is Ghana's Cardinal Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson, 64, who has won praise for addressing some of the church's most contentious positions, including its opposition to distributing condoms to curb HIV transmission. Cardinal Turkson would be the third African pope—and the first since Gelasius I in the fifth century.

A pope from an emerging-market nation would "have to be someone who doesn't look like he will close the door to the West, which is very important to the church and its history," said Mr. Cesareo.

Two cardinals have been discussed as top North American candidates. Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet's standing in the church was bolstered in 2010, when Pope Benedict appointed him to head the Congregation of Bishops. The influential office vets bishop appointments, giving Cardinal Ouellet, 68 years old, a critical role in shaping the next generation of leaders who oversee local dioceses.

Cardinal Ouellet also has a conservative reputation in Catholic doctrinal issues, a reputation that helped endear Joseph Ratzinger to the cardinals who elected him pope in 2005.

Another possible contender, Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolan was named to his position by Pope Benedict in 2009. At 63, he is still relatively young for the Catholic hierarchy, however.

The voting by cardinals to elect the next pope takes place behind the locked doors of the Vatican's Sistine Chapel. Under highly detailed procedures, only cardinals under the age of 80 can vote in the conclave, and secret ballots can be cast once on the first day, then twice during each subsequent morning and evening session.

Cardinals must have a two-thirds majority to elect a new pope; a runoff may be held between the top two candidates if the voting goes as far as 34 rounds. Except for periodic pauses, the voting continues until a new pontiff is elected.

When a successor is elected, the ballots are burned dry to produce the white smoke that signals the church has a new pope.

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