Abstract

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that emerge from consumer surveys. This is despite other modelling strategies which suggest that such dynamics may be very important to the process of diffusion. We present a segmental Gompertz model of broadband diffusion that uses an ICT consumer survey to model the effect that household income has on its propensity to adopt this product. The model forecasts are generated using household survey data although forecasts are compared to national broadband penetration statistics from the national regulator Ofcom. The model that is presented suggests strongly that early adopters are mostly made up from wealthy households and only as time progresses do less well off households come to market. The findings presented in this paper will be important to market planners requiring a relatively simple technique that forecasts segmental innovation diffusion.