Nearly half of Democrats think there’s a good chance President Trump won’t make it to the end of his first term in office, but two-out-of-three Republicans see four more years in Trump’s future.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Likely U.S. Voters closely divided when given three possible scenarios for the president: 34% think he is more likely to be reelected in 2020, while nearly as many (31%) see a higher likelihood of him being defeated by the Democratic presidential nominee that year. Twenty-nine percent (29%), however, believe Trump is more likely to be impeached before serving his first full term in office. Three percent (3%) see an unspecified something else in the cards. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans think given these three options that Trump is more likely to be reelected to a second term. Among Democrats, 42% predict he will be defeated by their nominee in 2020, but a plurality (45%) thinks he is more likely to be impeached instead.

Voters not affiliated with either major party are conflicted: 28% think Trump’s reelection is more likely; 33% say the Democrat will win next time out, while 31% see impeachment as the more likely result.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Male voters see Trump’s reelection as the more likely outcome. Women lean in the direction of impeachment. Those under 40 think the Democratic nominee is more likely to defeat the president in 2020. Older voters expect Trump to be reelected.

Forty-eight percent (48%) of blacks believe Trump is more likely to be impeached before serving his full term in office, a view shared by 26% of whites and 28% of other minority voters.

Higher-income voters are the least likely to see impeachment in Trump’s future.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing think he is more likely to be reelected. Among those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 53% predict impeachment.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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