Daily Dose: How will it end?

Analyst Bob Beatty discusses what Boyda, Jenkins need to win

Posted: Tuesday, October 28, 2008

By The Capital-Journal

With only a few days left until Election Day, here's a look at the key counties that will shape next Tuesday's result in the Kansas 2nd District Congressional race between Democratic incument Nancy Boyda and Republican Lynn Jenkins.

JENKINS' DOMAIN

Based on the counties where Republican Jim Ryun beat Boyda by double digits in 2006, Jenkins has seven stronghold counties. Those counties, where Ryun won by margins from 24 percent to 13 percent, were Wilson, Doniphan, Pottawatomie, Miami, Bourbon, Coffey and Linn.

While those counties only accounted for 15.6 percent of the total vote in the district, the wide margins enabled Ryun to rack up an extra 6,472 votes. Jenkins will be counting on these counties again to provide big margins.

Analyses of voter registration numbers in two of the counties show that she could gain a slight advantage with new voters. Of 624 new registrants in Pottawatomie County, 464 registered as Republicans but only 91 as Democrats and 87 unaffiliated. In Miami County, there are 676 newly registered Republicans compared to 499 Democrats. Another 739 are unaffiliated,

However, Boyda made 40 visits to these seven diehard Republican counties in hopes of wooing GOP voters to her side.

BOYDA'S BASTIONS

Boyda's strongholds are the five counties where she beat Ryun by margins ranging from 23 percent to 10 percent in '06. They are Douglas, Atchison, Crawford, Shawnee and Labette.

Her strongholds accounted for 47 percent of the total 2nd District vote in 2006 and provided a massive 14,410 vote cushion for her.

Shawnee County is vital to both candidates. In 2006, close to 30 percent of all 2nd District voters lived here. Boyda beat Ryun by 11 percent in the county, garnering her 7,324 extra votes — crucial in a race she won by less than 8,000.

Since 2006, Shawnee County has added 6,641 voters, a 6.5 percent increase. Of those new registrants, 3,369 are Democrats compared to 2,999 unaffiliated and 223 Republican.

Douglas County, home to 20 percent of district voters, has gained 6,157 registered voters since '06. An astounding 4,944 of the registrants are Democrats, while 1,611 are unaffiliated. Republican numbers actually decreased by 400 registrants.

In Crawford County, Republican registrants went down by 830 registrants, or 10 percent. Democrats added 367, a 4 percent increase, and unaffiliated increased by 550, or 8 percent.

BALANCING ACT

While the registration numbers in Pottawatomie and Miami counties augured well for Jenkins, the numbers in Shawnee, Douglas and Crawford do so for Boyda but with an even much larger magnitude since those counties make up 41 percent of the 2nd District vote.

The caveat is that unaffiliated numbers have gone up too, and the Jenkins campaign has been making a strong push for independent voters in Topeka, Lawrence and Pittsburg. Plus, Jenkins' state Senate seat was in Shawnee County and she is counting on a much better showing than Ryun.

So while the Boyda campaign has to be pleased about all those new Democratic registrants in her stronghold counties, the independent nature of the unaffiliated voter can make any incumbent nervous.

ON THE BUBBLE

The two largest swing counties in the district, Leavenworth and Riley, accounted for 14.5 percent of the total vote in 2006. And Ryun only won them by 0.5 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.

If one or both break for either candidate, it could be a game changer. Registration numbers in Leavenworth County favor Boyda, with 1,143 new Democrats vs. 549 Republicans and 1,024 unaffiliated.

Boyda made 34 appearances in the county as congresswoman, while both Jenkins and third party groups have been advertising in the Kansas City markets.

Riley County has been a GOP stronghold, and Jenkins has been hitting Boyda hard on a military-related issue in hopes of garnering Fort Riley-linked voters.

But like Crawford County, the new registration numbers in Riley County favor Boyda. Since 2006, the Riley County voter registration rolls have added 964 Democrats and 141 unaffiliated registrants but lost 487 Republicans.

BOTTOM LINE

Analyses of several key counties — minus Geary, which only has a handful of voters in the 2nd — shows momentum in the 2nd district with new registered voters is not with the Republicans.

There seem to be two clear keys to this race.

The first is whether the Democratic enthusiasm evident by new registration carries through to high turnout for Boyda on Tuesday.

The second is that there's a huge fight over the 28 percent of registered voters who don't want to be in either party. The candidate who convinces a large portion of those voters that she is the most moderate and independent will likely be the one smiling on election night.

Dr. Bob Beatty is a political scientist who provides analyses of political trends for Daily Dose. Send questions to page2@cjonline.com.

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Correction

 Roger Viola, president of the Topeka Community Foundation, said the impact of losses on investments would be insignificant on giving by the foundation. A story on Sunday's Daily Dose contained incorrect information.

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