The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

ISIS in Europe: How Deep is the "Gray Zone"? - Giulio Meotti

by Giulio Meotti

How many Muslims will this ISIS virus be able to infect in the vast European "gray zone"? The answer will determine our future.

Among young European Muslims,
support for suicide bombings range from 22% in Germany to 29% in Spain,
35% in Britain and 42% in France, according to a Pew poll. In the UK,
one in five Muslims have sympathy for the Caliphate. Today more British
Muslims join ISIS than the British army. In the Netherlands, a survey
shows that the 80% of Dutch Turks see "nothing wrong" in ISIS.

Even if these polls and surveys must be taken with some caution,
they all indicate a deep and vibrant "gray zone," which is feeding the
Islamic jihad in Europe and the Middle East. We are talking about
millions of Muslims who show sympathy, understanding and affinity with
the ideology and goals of ISIS.

In the 1970s and '80s, Europe was terrorized by a war declared by
Communist armed groups, such as the Germany's Baader Meinhof or Italy's
Red Brigades. Terrorists seemed determined to undermine democracy and
capitalism. They targeted dozens of journalists, public officials,
professors, economists and politicians, and in Italy in 1978, even
kidnapped and executed Italy's former prime minister, Aldo Moro.

The big question then was: "How deep is the 'gray zone'?" -- the
sympathizers of terrorism in the industrial factories, labor unions and
universities.

In the last year, the Islamic State's henchmen slaughtered hundreds
of Europeans and Westerners. Their last assault, in Brussels, struck at
the heart of the West: the postmodern mecca of NATO and the European
Union.

We should now answer the same question: How deep is the "gray zone" of the Islamic State in Europe?

"There are said to be 1.6 billion Muslims in the world.
... Let's say only 10% of the 1.6 billion harbor feelings of grievance
toward 'the West', or desire to expunge the infidel, or hope to
re-establish the caliphate. That 10% is 160 million people. Let's say of
that group only 10% would be inclined toward jihad. That's 16 million.
Assume that of that group only 10% really means it — would really become
jihadis or give them aid and sustenance. That's 1.6 million."

That is a lot.

According to a ComRes report commissioned by the BBC, 27% of British Muslims have sympathy for the terrorists who attacked the Charlie Hebdo office in Paris (12 killed). An ICM poll, released by Newsweek, revealed that 16% of French Muslims support ISIS. The number rises to 27% percent for those aged 18-24. In dozens of French schools, the "minute of silence" to commemorate the murdered Charlie Hebdo's journalists was interrupted by Muslim pupils who protested it.

How deep is ISIS's popularity in Belgium? Very deep. The most accurate study is a report from Voices From the Blogs,
which highlights the high degree of pro-ISIS sympathy in Belgium. The
report monitored and analyzed more than two million Arabic messages
around the world via Twitter, Facebook and blogs regarding ISIS's
actions in the Middle East.

The most enthusiastic comments about ISIS come from Qatar at 47%;
then Pakistan, at 35%; third overall is Belgium, where 31% of tweets in
Arabic on the Islamic State are positive -- more than Libya (24%), Oman
(25%), Jordan (19%), Saudi Arabia (20%) and Iraq (20%). This shocking
data exposes the success of the network and its easy pro-ISIS
recruitment in Belgium.

In other European countries, after Belgium, Britain is at 24%, Spain 21%, France 20%.

In the UK, one in five Muslims have sympathy for the Caliphate. Today more British Muslims join ISIS than the British army.

In the Netherlands, a survey conducted by Motivaction shows that the 80% of Dutch Turks see "nothing wrong" in ISIS.

Among young European Muslims, support for suicide bombings range from
22% in Germany to 29% in Spain, 35% in Britain and 42% in France,
according to a Pew poll.

The level of ISIS's popularity in the Arab world has been exposed by many surveys: the Clarion Project
published a report based on multiple sources a March 2015 poll by the
Iraqi Independent Institute for Administration and Civil Society
Studies, a November 2014 poll by Zogby Research Services, a November
2014 poll by the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, and an
October 2014 poll by the Fikra Forum. The result: 42 million people in
the Arab world sympathize with ISIS.

After the massacre at Charlie Hebdo, Al-Jazeera conducted a survey asking, "Do you support Isis's victories?" 81% of respondents voted "yes."

Even if these polls and surveys must be taken with some caution, they
all indicate a deep and vibrant "gray zone," which is feeding the
Islamic jihad in Europe and the Middle East. We are talking about
millions of Muslims who show sympathy, understanding and affinity with
the ideology and goals of ISIS.

Anthony Glees, an English scholar of political radicalism, revealed
the "gray zone" of Germany's Baader-Meinhof terror group: "By 1977, the
West German Federal Criminal Agency had a terrorist index which
contained the names of some 4.7 million suspects and sympathisers, many
of them university students."

The terrorist leaders at that time all came from good German
families: Andreas Baader was the son of a professor of history, Ulrike
Meinhof was the daughter of a museum director and a famous journalist,
Gudrun Ensslin was the daughter of an evangelical pastor, Horst Mahler
was the son of a judge.

The Islamic State today has a much deeper gray zone of sympathizers in the Muslim communities of Europe.

In
the 1970s and '80s, Europe was terrorized by Communist armed groups,
such as the Germany's Baader Meinhof (pictured in black and white),
which had a "gray zone" of millions of suspected sympathizers. Today's
European jihadists, such the late Paris attack mastermind Abdelhamid
Abaaoud (right), have a much deeper "gray zone" of sympathizers in the
Muslim communities of Europe.

If Baader-Meinhof was at war with the "schweine" (bourgeois "pigs") and targeted specific political figures, the Caliphate's volunteers are at war with all the "kuffar"
(unbelievers). ISIS loyalists target the patrons of restaurants,
theaters and stadiums in Paris; a café in Copenhagen which held a debate
on freedom of expression and Islam; Western tourists at a resort in
Tunisia; commuters at the Maelbeek metro station and passengers at the
Brussels airport.

For ISIS, it is an eternal war in the name of the prophet. As Graeme Wood explained in "What ISIS Really Wants,"
ISIS "hungers for genocide ... and it considers itself a harbinger of —
and headline player in — the imminent end of the world."

A book just published in French by Ivan Rioufol, a journalist for the newspaper Le Figaro, eloquently titled "The Coming Civil War,"
details the dangers posed by the "apocalyptic ideology" of radical
Islam in Europe. How many Muslims will this ISIS virus be able to infect
in the vast European "gray zone"? The answer will determine our future.

Giulio Meotti, Cultural Editor for Il Foglio, is an Italian journalist and author.