Marlins vs. Nationals MLB Pick – August 28th

We wrapped the week up with a winner, as did the Milwaukee Brewers who used the weekend to surprisingly gain ground on the division leading Cubs. Chicago was playing Philadelphia while Milwaukee traveled to Chavez Ravine to face the scorched-Earth hot Dodgers. Edge Cubbies, right? Well, not so fast. The Cubs dropped two of three to the worst team in the league, while the Brewers took two of three from the best. It keeps things really interesting as we approach the final month of the season.

The Brew Crew have the day off before beginning a massive home series against the Cardinals tomorrow. Chicago faces the Pirates tonight.

Let’s see if we can start a new week off with a winner and make up some much-needed ground.

Today’s MLB Pick:

Miami Marlins +200 at Washington Nationals -220 (Total: 7.5)

Jose Urena (12-5, 3.68 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.25 ERA)

Max Scherzer is holding batters to an insane .171 batting average against this season with a WHIP of 0.85. I know the Miami Marlins are red-hot right now, but if anyone can cool off Stanton and the Marlins, it is Mad Max. He is making his first start since August 13th after experiencing some neck tightness in throwing sessions. It seems pretty unlikely Washington is taking any chances with the Cy Young frontrunner, so expect him to be sharp and on his game tonight.

But it won’t be easy for the Nationals tonight, despite having a pitcher who has led the team to victory in seven of his last nine appearances. Jose Urena has been leading successful efforts as well. The Marlins have won four straight with Urena on the mound and eight of his last ten starts. The Marlins are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games and 7-1 SU. They are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games and is 7-1 ATS in their last eight in Washington. HOWEVER, they are 2-7 SU.

I mention all these numbers as a caution against a Nationals runline wager to get some value. Scherzer could very well shut them down, but Urena could also return the favor. Instead, I’ll take the value of BOTH pitchers outpacing some hit hitters tonight and keeping the scoreline respectable and under the 7.5 threshold.

Another interesting note: Scherzer has a 1.13 ERA this season against the Marlins… and is still just 0-1.

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