AUSTIN — Even early birds can be long shots, which is probably the best way to characterize state Sen. Florence Shapiro's anticipated campaign in next year's anticipated special election for the U.S. Senate.

That would follow U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison's anticipated resignation to make an anticipated race for governor against incumbent Rick Perry in 2010.

Those are a lot of what-ifs, but take the anticipation out of politics, and you lose much of the entertainment.

Whatever the eventual outcome, however, Shapiro, R-Plano, chairwoman of the state Senate's Education Committee, is off and running. Her exploratory committee, formed in July, has raised about $400,000, and she has been endorsed by 11 (a majority) of the other Republican state senators.

Dewhurst's dilemma

But what do Shapiro's ambition and lineup mean for Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, a fellow Republican who — some believe — also may be interested in succeeding Hutchison, and what do they portend for Dewhurst's working relationship with Shapiro and her GOP backers when the Legislature convenes in January?

Dewhurst hasn't said publicly what he will do. It is no secret that he would rather run for governor, but he isn't likely to challenge Perry if Hutchison does.

State Sen. Jeff Wentworth, R-San Antonio, is among those who believe Dewhurst will seek re-election to a third term in 2010.

"He's a CEO-type," Wentworth said, someone who doesn't want to share power with 99 other senators and be at the bottom of the seniority ladder.

If the lieutenant governor is interested in moving to the U.S. Senate — and were inclined to punish Shapiro and her supporters — he could strip them of their chairs and rearrange the chamber's leadership in January.

That isn't likely to happen, at least not on a large scale, because it could incite a bloody Senate conflict that Dewhurst would be better off avoiding. But it would be fun to watch.

Panel appointment

All 15 members — 10 Republicans and five Democrats — are returning. So unless the committee membership were expanded, someone would have to be bumped to accommodate him.

And that would spark an uproar from more senior senators who also may want an appointment.

With the recent departure of Republican Kyle Janek from the Senate, Patrick contends that Harris County Republicans aren't fairly represented on the panel, which includes four Republicans from the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

Sen. Tommy Williams, R-The Woodlands, is on the committee, but Patrick argues that he represents only a small part of Harris County. The only other Finance member from Houston is Sen. John Whitmire, a Democrat.

Even if Dewhurst were inclined to bump the ambitious Shapiro from the committee, replacing her with Patrick would probably cause the lieutenant governor more grief from Senate Republicans than he cares to face.

Busy week for Perry

As previously reported, Perry plans to head to Philadelphia on Tuesday to join several other governors in a meeting to discuss the economic crisis with President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joe Biden.

But that is only one stop on the governor's economic tour this week.

Today, he will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in Austin before both address an Austin Chamber of Commerce luncheon.

Then on Wednesday, Perry will host his second private meeting on the economy with Texas business leaders. A few weeks ago, he met with representatives of the Texas Association of Business and several trade groups representing bankers, credit unions and Realtors.

This week, he has invited home builders, retailers, restaurant owners, auto dealers and trucking owners, among others.

Most have been major political contributors to the governor and other state officials.

Will Perry be hosting similar meetings for labor unions and consumer advocacy groups? Wait and see, his office says.

Education supporter

You may have noticed in a recent report by my Austin bureau colleague R.G. Ratcliffe that grocery store executive Charles Butt has emerged as one of the biggest political donors from San Antonio.

Butt has given more money — $1 million — than fellow San Antonio businessman James Leininger — $720,000 — to state candidates and committees so far this year.

And while Leininger's primary interest is promoting tax-paid vouchers to allow some students to attend private schools, Butt is a strong supporter of the public school system.

The vast majority of Butt's contributions in this election cycle — $785,000 — went to Texas Parent PAC, an anti-voucher political action committee that was instrumental in several races for the Texas House.