Mostly clear skies with diminishing wind is expected tonight.
Highs clouds will stream over western and southern portions
overnight. A weakening storm system will slide to the south of
the state on Saturday with high pressure in control for the
weekend and the start of next week.
A new storm system could affect the state during the Tuesday-
Wednesday time frame.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

Still some stubborn lake clouds hanging over northern portions
of the northewest and north central mountains late this evening.
Otherwise skies are mostly clear throughout with diminishing
wind.
8H temps rise overnight to near 0C in the far SW by sunrise.
Temps will drop to the mid teens up north once the bulk of the
clouds go away, and still get into the L20s in the south before
despite any increase in high clouds.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure circulating over the mid-section of the country is
going to slide pretty much straight east and most if not all of
the precip will remain S of the area. However, recent runs have
nudged the precip (snow) into the Laurels where it had
previously appeared that it would skirt the local area. Put high
PoPs and low SF num in Somerset Co, but little or none for
Cambria and Bedford as a prevailing westerly is not good for
snow in Bedford, and Cambria probably just too far north for
accums. Some worry for FZRA is there, but the soundings do look
snowy at this point, withe the 0C line just south of the
border. Higher clouds will affect the southern tier through the
day, and likely keep temps below guidance. The north should be
mostly sunny and could eclipse guidance there.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The main storm of concern looks to be the one that is made to
enter the eastern US Tuesday and continue into mid week. There`s
still much disagreement in the evolution of the surface low. The
GEFS and ECENS agree in keeping the cyclone south of PA with
the best chance of precipitation being over the southern 1/3 to
1/2 of the region. Temps aloft will be marginal, at least until
the storm starts to organize off the coast. This suggests that
during the day with temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40,
there is a good chance that rain will complicate the PTYPE
forecast. Temperatures are trending colder, however the latest
EC and GEFS M climate and standardized anomalies are taking the
best QPF south and east of the Mason Dixon.
Precipitation type challenges should also be exacerbated if
precipitation rates are not robust which the models are hinting
to be the case as the storm could be slow to evolve and not
really becoming strong until it`s off the coast. So there is
considerable variability in next weeks system.
The larger picture has the NAEFSBC advertising the Greenland
block that has led to the first two weeks of March being cold
and rather stormy in parts of the NE, to finally begin breaking
down and the pattern becoming more mobile. Below normal temps
are forecast to persist though mid week with a moderating trend
or a return to more normal readings slated to return for the end
of the week into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Satellite loop at 00Z showing lake effect stratocu still
covering the northwest mountains of Pa. However, arrival of high
pressure ridge will bring clearing skies and diminishing wind
to the entire area this evening. Linear extrapolation from
satellite imagery suggest clearing at KBFD by 03Z-04Z.
A weak area of low pressure will pass south of Pennsylvania
Saturday, possibly nipping KJST/KAOO with a period of light snow
during late morning/early afternoon. Based on latest model
output, believe the odds of vis reductions at KJST/KAOO are
low, so have kept the forecast as VFR for now. Elsewhere, model
data supports a high confidence of VFR conditions Saturday.
Outlook...
Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.
Tue...Rain/snow possible, mainly southern Pa.
Wed...Snow possible, mainly southern Pa.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...La Corte/Ceru
AVIATION...Fitzgerald