2013 Tour of California

Tour of California Stage 5: Expert Analysis

(Photo by Tejay van Garderen's smart tactics helped him vault into the lead on Stage 5 of the Tour of California. (Wil Matthews))

With Friday’s individual time trial looming, few expected Thursday’s Stage 5 to be especially pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2013 Amgen Tour of California. But after RadioShack-Leopard used San Luis Obispo County’s crosswinds to create a split at the front of the peloton, it looks as if the Tour’s cream has risen to the top of the GC.

The day began with many riders worried about getting over the day’s first climb in one piece. With headwinds expected for much of Stage 5’s 115.4-mile route from Santa Barbara to Avila Beach, getting dropped on San Marcos Pass after only 15 miles of racing would have meant a long day in the saddle for any unsuspecting victim—not to mention a good chance of not making the time cut at the end of the day. Once the pack crested the KOM and the break had been established, the peloton seemed to succumb to the will of the headwind, riding steadily northwest while keeping the break’s advantage within reach.

But with about 35 miles to go, the pack veered right and the headwind suddenly became a crosswind. Sensing an opportunity to catch race leader Janier Acevedo and his Jamis Hagens Bermans team off-guard, RadioShack-Leopard hit the front and accelerated, pulling seventeen riders off the front of the strung-out peloton.

An hour after initiating such a critical move, Jens Voigt escaped to win the stage before what has essentially become a home crowd for the popular German. But the day’s biggest winner was BMC’s Tejay van Garderen. The young American entered the day trailing Acevedo by 12 seconds following the Colombian’s Stage 2 victory. While BMC’s cooperation with RadioShack was not premeditated, the American remained attentive and aware at all times as to what was happening around him. While Acevedo was at the back surrounded by teammates, van Garderen was at the front, protected by Michael Schar and Thor Hushovd and keeping an eye on the men he felt would prove to be his biggest rivals over the next two days.

So when Voigt and Busche hit the front in an effort to split the field, van Garderen was able to respond quickly. And with Schar and Hushovd making the move as well, he had two teammates able to do the lion’s share of the work on his behalf. All van Garderen had to do was pull through when his turn in the paceline arrived and watch the time between his group and Acevedo’s increase. Now, instead of starting tomorrow’s time trial 12 seconds behind Acevedo, van Garderen will start last, with a 42-second advantage over the next-best rider.

As for RadioShack, the squad considered trying similar tactics yesterday, but the wind was too weak to create significant time gaps. The team obviously thinks Matthew Busche has a chance to challenge for a spot on the Tour’s final podium. Perhaps the 28-year-old has regained the form he had in 2011 when he played a leading role in helping Chris Horner win the ATOC and then won the US National Road Race Championship one week later in South Carolina. Busche now sits fourth overall, 14 seconds behind Acevedo. Assuming he’s able to gain time on Acevedo in Friday’s individual time trial, a podium finish is well within his reach.

Saxo-Tinkoff’s Michael Rogers was also quick to follow RadioShack and BMC today, bringing along teammates Jay McCarthy and Jonas Jorgensen as well. The 2010 Tour of California champion has been quiet but steady in his bid to win another title. Thanks to Stage 5, he now sits in second place overall, 42 seconds behind van Garderen. A three-time world time trial champion, Rogers should record a good time Friday, but the uphill finish in San Jose doesn’t suit him as a much as a flatter, more traditional course would. He’ll need to be at his best if he wants to cut his deficit to van Garderen.

One of Rogers’ compatriots, Orica-GreenEdge’s Cameron Meyer, also made the break along with three of his teammates. While his team failed to win the stage, Meyer jumped from tenth to sixth overall, 1:42 behind van Garderen. Meyer won the 2011 Tour Down Under at only 23. He’ll have a tough time overcoming men like van Garderen, Rogers, and Busche in his bid for a spot on the podium Sunday, but his performance today affirms his status as a rider to watch in the future.

While WorldTour riders like van Garderen, Busche, Rogers, and Meyers benefited from today’s aggressive tactics, Continental riders like Acevedo and United Healthcare’s Philip Deignan suffered. Acevedo was lucky to lose only a minute today as there were times when he looked as if he might get caught behind more than one split. He now sits third overall and should lose more time in San Jose. Luckily, Mt. Diablo means the Colombian’s chances for a podium finish are still intact, but he did himself no favors today. As for United Healthcare’s Deignan, his team completely missed the move, a performance made all the more confusing by the fact that team rider Lucas Euser went to college at nearby Cal Poly San Luis Obisbo and was familiar with the area’s tendency to produce crosswinds.

In the end, of the seventeen riders to have made today’s split, sixteen of them race for WorldTour teams. The lone exception was Optum p/b Kelly Benefit Strategies rider Alex Candelario. His seventh-place finish was his third of the Tour, a terrific string of results for a veteran of the North American circuit.

So after several days marked by strong performances from teams who spend the majority of their seasons racing in domestic National Racing Calendar events, Stage 5 marked the reassertion of the WorldTour competing in this year’s race. The level of tactical savvy, pack awareness, and raw power on display today is not the result of management or preparation, it’s about the experience that comes from knowing where to be and when to be there. Especially in races where rider radios are prohibited, successful riders observe and know how to exploit the weaknesses of their rivals.

Acevedo and his team needed to be reminded to ride at the front during such a crucial section of the stage. But Voigt, Busche, van Garderen, Rogers, and the thirteen other men who made the split today didn’t need to be reminded. They knew it; they felt it.