Russian voters go to the polls this Sunday to pick their next
president. The outcome looks to be a foregone conclusion: Vladimir Putin
will likely win more than 50 percent of the vote, avoid a runoff, and
return to the presidency.

Since the outburst of Russian disapproval in December over reported
fraud in the parliamentary elections, Putin has shored up his base,
activated his impressive political machine, reminded Russians of the
chaos of the 90s, and pulled out the well-worn "foreign interference"
card. He has kept his opponents marginalized and divided, and they have
been largely invisible.

While Putin cruises to victory, much on the surface of Russian
politics looks the same as it was. It would be a mistake, however, to
assume that nothing has changed. The shifts occurring deep within
Russian society may take time to alter the political landscape, but they
are fundamental and will have far-reaching consequences.

Although he remains powerful, Putin's aura of invincibility has been
punctured and his legitimacy seriously undermined. For their part,
Russians are learning how to be active participants in their own polity.

Across Russia, people of all ages, backgrounds, and income levels
joined demonstrations, commented on blogs and in social media, and have
made their voices heard. While the numbers in the streets have been
remarkable, most striking has been a fundamental change in attitude.

At a recent demonstration, one participant noted that Russians were
trying to remember what it was like to be citizens and not subjects. He
said (as quoted in the Washington Post), "I hope that year by year our Russian people will make themselves masters of their own fate."

Russians have very little experience with "citizenship" in the
Western sense. Under the Russian monarchy, they were subjects of the
tsar and were only awarded some of the rights of citizens in the 1860s.
Efforts to shape a modern concept of Russian citizenship came to an
abrupt halt with the Russian revolution.

Since the Soviet Union collapsed, Russians have been citizens in
name, but have not had much opportunity - or desire - to exercise their
rights as citizens.

Citizenship, in the classical definition of the concept, confers
rights as well as responsibilities on both the government and the
people. The state exists for the benefit of its citizens and must
respect their political, civil, and social rights. For their part,
citizens should be actively involved in civic and government affairs.

Putin's miscalculation was to play tsar and take the Russian people's
support for granted. When he cavalierly announced that he planned to be
president again, he awakened in many Russians a sense of righteous
indignation.

Many of the demonstrators say that while they do not want a
revolution, they do want a more accountable and responsive government.
They seek an end to corruption, cronyism, and repressiveness. Like all
citizens everywhere, they want to know that they matter.

Putin will win this election and will likely serve his six-year term.
He may even win the next term. But the Russian people have demonstrated
that they are ready to challenge the status quo and that they are
finally yearning to be involved citizens.

Tsar Vladimir will find, as have many monarchs and strongmen in world
history, that a country with active citizens is not so easily
manipulated.

This article originally appeared at CFR.org, an Atlantic partner site.