Modelling forecasts up to 67,000 total cases by May 5 — but growth rate slowing

Canada's Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam and deputy Haward Njoo hold a press conference to speak about the government's measures to help Canadians with the effects of COVID-19 pandemic from West Block in Ottawa on Mar. 24, 2020. Andrew Meade/iPolitics

The latest short-term modelling from the federal government projects Canada could have 53,196 to 66,835 COVID-19 cases and 3,277 to 3,883 deaths by May 5 — one week from today.

The forecasts are intended for planning purposes and reflect the likeliest scenario out of a number of possibilities. As of the morning of April 28, 49,014 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus have been reported to date, as well as 2,766 deaths.

Projections for May 5, released on April 28. Courtesy of the Public Health Agency of Canada

However, the growth of cases nationwide is slowing down, with epidemic growth levelling off in several provinces, such as New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador and Manitoba.

On April 9, the doubling of cases in Canada occurred every three days. But now, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days.

However, cases in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta — three of Canada’s four most-populated provinces — are driving recent growth.

Outbreaks in long-term care and senior’s homes continue to be leading hotspots for the epidemic, and where 79 per cent of deaths have occurred to date. Outbreaks have also occurred at correctional facilities in British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario and shelters servicing the homeless in Toronto.

Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief medical officer, said Tuesday that the growth rate of cases is slowing in all provinces but warned that there could be another wave of infections without continued measures.

“We have to plan to live with a manageable level of COVID-19 activity. Therefore, we anticipate that some public health measures will need to remain in place to prevent a sparking and growth of future epidemic waves,” she said.

Ottawa and Canada’s premiers released guidelines for re-opening the economy on Tuesday that offer a list of considerations all provinces and territories have accepted in order to re-open businesses. It includes ensuring that the spread of the virus is under control, increasing capacity to “test, trace and isolate all cases” and supporting vulnerable populations who are more at risk.

Quebec Premier François Legault revealed his province’s plan to re-open the economy on Tuesday. Re-opening of retail stores, construction and manufacturing is set to begin May 4. On Monday, Ontario released a three-stage plan to ease restrictions but did not offer dates for when businesses can re-open.

Canada has seen slower growth compared to many of its international partners, including the United States.

Projections for May 5, released on April 28. Courtesy of the Public Health Agency of Canada

Dr. Tam said Canada continues to work towards the “green curve” — a scenario of strong epidemic controls in which only one to 10 per cent of Canadians are infected over the course of the pandemic.

“This is the scenario we are currently working towards,` where each infected person only transmits to less than one other person,” she said. “To stay on this green best-case scenario curve, we must achieve and maintain a high degree of physical distancing while also maintaining a high rate of case detection and isolation and contact tracing and quarantine.”

The federal government’s first public COVID-19 modelling, released on April 9, showed longer-term projections could see a death toll of between 11,000 and 22,000 over the course of the pandemic, based on a scenario in which 2.5 or 5 per cent of the population was infected.