Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Despite the lack of posts recently, I have been following the progress in the candidate selection process in Mexico for the 2006 elections. Here's a quick summary, without links to articles.

The PRIMadrazo "won" the PRI nomination for president. I qualified the victory with " " because he did not face a real challenger. Earlier this year, the main candidates with a chance against Madrazo formed TUCOM in order to defeat Madrazo's nomination. Sometime this fall, TUCOM decided that Montiel would run against Madrazo and that the other members of TUCOM would not. Then, Montiel had to pull out of the race after allegations of financial shenanigans by his wife and children. The PRI ruled that nominations were closed and none of the other TUCOM candidates were allowed to register after Montiel withdrew.

That left Madrazo and Everado. (Yes, if you asked "Ever-who?," you've got the right idea.) And Madrazo has won a pyrrhic victory. Not to mention that I think he's one of the least electable PRIistas. Some of the TUCOMistas would have been better for the party.

The PANFelipe Calderon has the nomination. ("Whew...we dodged a bullet with Creel.") While Calderon is more electable than Creel (who was a controversial Secretary of State under Fox and spearheaded the desafuero campaign), Calderon will still have to convince voters that he will be more effective than Fox has been. Since Calderon has maintained a healthy distance from Fox while still being part of the cabinet, that might be a plausible sell. Governability will be the big issue for voters and the PAN.

The PRDThere was never any doubt that Lopez Obrador would have the nomination, especially since he was uncontested within the party. Characterized as a populist by the U.S. press, Lopez Obrador's popularity grew after the PAN and the PRI tried to have him convicted (and thus declared ineligible for election) for violating a court order to stop construction of a road in the D.F. while he was Mayor. AMLO will have to moderate his image while still appealing to the leftist base in Mexico City. While he's popular in the D.F., outside of the capital city, his support is weaker. Many remember his controversial career as a PRIista in his home state of Tabasco.

So, who will be President in 2006? I'd call it a two way race between the PAN and PRD if I didn't think that Madrazo had significant financial backing behind his candidacy. It's still to early to call, and I haven't seen any recent poll numbers of voters.

If the Mexican elections were to happen today, neo-populist candidate Manuel Lopez-Obrador would win by a narrow marging.

The leftist club would get the biggest Latin American prize: Mexico.

What a club: Archetypal-Dictator Fidel Castro, Retro-Narco-Sandinista Carlos Ortega sitting together with Neo-Populists Lula da Silva, Hugo Chavez and Néstor Kirchner in the board of directors.

The good news is that the Mexican elections are scheduled for mid-2006 and, if we are to believe a recently published survey, Lopez-Obrador is quickly losing ground.

These are Consulta Mitofsky's numbers: -Lopez-Obrador fell to 29.5% from 37.9% in August, losing almost 10% in two months. -Roberto Madrazo, the Institutional Revolutionary Party is second with 25.7%. -Felipe Calderón from ruling National Action Party is at 24.4%.