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British politics and current affairs

Starting this up again.

It's a pretty decent week to be a Lib Dem if you have a sense of irony. Many of the Brexiters who are complaining about the House of Lords decision on Brexit voted against the Lib Dem moves to reform the second chamber. There's a kind of poetic justice to that.

And just today, the Electoral Commission have referred the chief executive of Vote Leave to the police for breaking electoral law.

Hadn't considered that poetic justice, Prime, but gosh does it put a smile on my face. I've taken a weird sense of pride seeing our own democracy in action working to dilute the government's hard-headed arrogance on the Brexit issue. Hope it continues.

The Open Britain campaign were advertising a poll the other day showing a huge preference among the public for a vote on the deal. I know polls are hit and miss, but it lifted my spirits a little I must confess. I wonder, is there a slow shift in opinion happening now more and more details are becoming a reality and not just a cynic's warning?

On another front, didn't like what I read yesterday about the government wanting more grammar and faith schools; the latter being run by volunteers.

Bah. As a discontented Labour Party Member there’s very little I can say at the moment. The conference is going to be fun this year! All backstabbing and depression resumed. I think most of us have come to the realisation we’re actually just a bit shit and lazy at the moment. The Tories are getting an easy ride as Labour just don’t seem to have a meaningful voice. A lot of that lies with the leader.

At this point, I have a theory that Jeremy Corbyn is being paid off by the Conservatives to purposely be as ineffective as possible. How can you possibly take this Tory government and not turn it into a red and yellow landslide at the council elections?!

There's a feeling out there for sure that Corbyn is only a really good leader when there's a campaign to fight. He's a terrific campaigner to be fair, and we did see him absolutely come to life in the election campaign of 2017. Honestly, if it'd run a week longer he might have been Prime Minister. But since then? He's fallen back into the old habit of being rather ineffectual. The polls swung back towards the Tories a few weeks ago and, though they are still at a point where you'd suggest they were unlikely to be able to hold onto the DUP coalition if an election were called tomorrow, they'll be pleased just to have already fought back to the driving seat.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Parliament are likely to vote to withhold their consent to the EU Withdrawal bill. It's a huge moment in one key respect, because although the UK government probably railroad it through over their objections anyway the likelihood is that it'll be a rallying cry for Scottish nationalism for generations to come. It'd also be the first time that MSP's ever withheld consent, so for that to happen and the UK government to do it anyway... it's history, whichever way you want to slice it.

Oh, and just in the background it sounds like the cabinet are no closer to agreeing on a Brexit plan. Something I read the other day suggested that the DUP are actively starting to shit themselves that the position they've insisted on so far could prove to be untenable and they're now reaping the fruits of it crashing around their ears.

I find it kind of remarkable that we're 9/10 months out from the actual day of leaving and none of the people leading our talks with the EU actually know what the fuck they want. It's ridiculous, it really is. If May was any Prime Minister worth her salt she'd put her foot down and make a decision herself. Unfortunately, she wants to put as many people in front of the Government's mistakes as possible so she doesn't have to take a bullet.

I'm really enjoying the amount of pro-Leave people I'm seeing suddenly start insisting that we should have a second referendum if we stay in the custom's union. Having insisted that the result of the first one was final, there shouldn't be another one, etc etc, for months on end, all of a sudden they're not looking like getting their way and backing a second vote.

Honestly, the whole thing is a shambles, from the very first decision to hold the referendum by Cameron, through the remain side not having anything coherent and active to say about the benefits of membership during the campaign, to Cameron abandoning being PM the moment he didn't get his way, to May rushing to invoke Article 50 when she didn't even have an established plan of how to deal with the issues.

I mean, I voted remain because you don't fix a broken EU system without actually being a part of it. Plus, it w\as basically impossible to vote for leave given all the dirty tactics used by them, in pretty much broad daylight. But I think we could have made a good go of leaving the EU if some people just put their own interests aside and acted for the good of the country.

I'm still not sure we could. I still don't think it was thought through and I don't actually see an answer that people would find acceptable to things like Northern Ireland, free movement, all that jazz, that's compatible with leaving.

It's an interesting question, though, whether going the whole hog and just cutting ties and letting the chips fall where they may, would be better than all this umming and aahing, though there is always the lingering threat of violence in NI if that situation isn't handled particularly well.

Good lord, that's shockingly brazen. I'm sure it wouldn't take long to dig up some proof of him saying the EU was holding us back.

The breaking news is that the Republic of Ireland's abortion referendum is having a knock-on effect on what our government is doing with regards to Northern Ireland, which might in turn have a knock-on effect on the loose coalition between the Tories and the DUP. Sounds like there might well be a completely free vote on bringing NI in line with the rest of the UK, though we'll have to see.

Count me in as a person interested in politics, but very much inexperienced in terms of knowledge of the whole damn thing. I was much more interested 10 or so years ago, but it's hard to be so now when everyone and every party is just so... unlikable.

I'm a Labour supporter generally speaking, but I do analyse each election on it's merits and policies. Which led me to vote Lib Dem this last election. Put simply, I fail to envision Corbyn in charge of this country, and am downright scared if he was ever to become Prime Minister. Not the party, but the leader, makes me feel that way.

Theresa May, while again also unlikable and comes across as simply not fit for the job, has been snake bitten from the get go. Most of this stems from Brexit obviously and Cameron's massive blunder. What we're left with is two parties with terrible leaders, 2 or 3 more that will likely never be at that level of popularity and even more extreme parties.

I pay attention more to US politics now than the UK. It's way more entertaining and it mostly doesn't affect me.

I get that Corbyn doesn't really inspire confidence. Then again, neither does May, and neither did Cameron, and to be honest things sort of ticked along OK for the most part and we've had the major disasters anyway. Hard to imagine how things could get any worse, short of his declaring war on the US or something.

The Brexit rebellion never really materialised in any real sense. Both sides have left claiming victory. This is just going to rumble on and on I think until it all collapses in a shit heap. Interesting development has been that the comments from Airbus et al haven't been where it stopped, but we've got a very rare sighting of a joint statement between the business community and the trades unions both warning about a no deal Brexit. Not often you see employers and workers on the same side. There's also warnings and demands from the finance watchdog and British Medical Association respectively.

The whole thing is basically an absolute shit-shower. In the meantime Liz Truss is throwing shade at her cabinet colleagues publicly, and Boris Johnson is being ignored by the 'other side' in the government, while the leader of the Welsh Tories has stood down (for unspecified reasons but some say it's to do with Brexit). So at least they aren't losing their heads about the whole thing.

Following on from Gooner's comment above, this would be fascinating to watch if it didn't actually affect us all.

Pretty much. I'm fed up with it all now. It's basically a massive caber waiting to fall over, but there's still so many people on every side pushing against each other that the thing doesn't have chance to fall in any particular direction.

At this point, I'm fairly sure that May's going to remain in charge and will get the whole thing sorted. We'll all get a mediocre deal that leaves us half-in and half-out and we'll all be far more bogged down with bureaucracy than we ever were before. Fun times ahead.

From what I read, and I've not been super engaged with it as much as I once was, the concessions made by May yesterday in effect neuter her own Chequers agreement. Which I would believe couldn't possibly be true if I thought she had anything resembling a spine.

The truly remarkable thing in all of this, rebellions or otherwise, is that she damaged her own position by calling an election and then failing to actually win the thing. She's so damaged by not having a majority that now she has to desperately try and keep all of her party happy, and it's a tightrope she's not really successfully walking.

She's successful at walking that tightrope until she falls off and they put someone else in charge. And I honestly think she'll just keep going. Of course, we'll stare and point in delight while she wobbles violently at least once a week from now until June 2022, but she'll absolutely make it. See, the thing about not having a spine is that you have no scruples with regards to the people that have no power over you. So she'll make concessions left and right, and I feel that there's not quite enough people on any particular side to care quite enough to do anything about it if she keeps caving into demands like this.

Interesting reading, Sheep. My take on it is that it's not that people don't care. It's that no one wants the job. Running the Tories now would be a fool's errand, with no majority and a firm split in the party about whether or not we should be in the EU at all. There are around 60 hardline Brexiters, and around 20 hardline remainers, both of which are enough to remove the majority. But there'd be a lot more 'hardliners' if they swung to a 'hard Brexit' position under a Rees-Mogg or Johnson, so neither of them actually want to be the guy who fucks it up.

Once the chips fall one way or the other, I think she's done. And if it reaches a point where people think their side has more to lose than gain by keeping her in power, she's done. But right now everyone seems to just want to stay on the sidelines and keep their powder dry for the right moment, rather than topple her and upset the balance.

In fairness, if you were as calculating as Johnson, Rees-Mogg, and anybody else, you'd be looking at the UK leaving the EU and thinking 'Christ, this is a shit show, if I end up leader while this is going on I'm not going to be there for very long'.

They'll likely much rather take control after we've left and be seen as the 'saviour' of the nation, salvaging us from the economic despair or whatever happens after we leave.

Oh yeah, absolutely. No one wants to be the one who actually gets tarred with the brush of being the one in control. We do have pretty short attention spans sometimes and only remember who was in the hot-seat when the shit went down, rather than the things that cause it. It's why Reagan and Thatcher don't get their share of the blame for the financial crash in 2008, even though it was decades in the making.

Sounds like the recommendation is for an ID card scheme after Brexit, like the one they have in Germany and like the one that Blair wanted to bring in that attracted so much condemnation at the time.

The upshot of the Chequers no-deal is also that Labour have found themselves back in the lead for the first time since February. They still aren't all that popular and are way below their surge following the election but the Tories popularity has plummeted. I also saw a poll that said if the referendum were run tomorrow it'd go something like 54-46 on a no-deal, and the theory is that if the pro-Brexit starts polling at around 40% or less that a lot of the moderate Tories will break ranks. I'm wondering if the stuff about food that is coming out now might mean there's a very different environment when Parliament resumes after the summer break.

Edit: And just on the above, once the don't knows and undecideds are removed a Sky Poll now has leaving in a no-deal situation polling at 41%. Support is collapsing.

So it's been quiet in here and given the depressing state of UK politics I can't say I blame anyone for that. But thought it was worth stopping by since it sounds like the hardline Brexiters are now openly briefing against the Prime Minister and there's talk about an imminent leadership challenge. Could be that they're now either going to move or miss their shot.

European leaders rejected Chequers pretty much outright. Is that a legitimate stance or a negotiating tactic? Probably a mix of both I imagine, but doesn't seem to help May much does it? Johnson published an alternative plan editorial, not that it had much in the way of any substance - easy to make promises when you're not the one to have to action them. But if a leadership challenge is looming, does he intend on pursuing them? Is he making false promises so blame can be placed on the EU when we crash out with no deal? I fear more and more that's going to happen.

And then there's what's happening with Labour. The leadership have opened themselves up to supporting a people's vote I do believe, and am I right in thinking they've also said they're keeping the option of remaining on the table too?

It gives me a headache. Can't we just rewind the clock and convince David Cameron out of ever promising this circus in the first damn place?

We have 3 utterly unelectable parties at the forefront. No alternatives that are viable and we’re becoming a laughing stock over Brexit. The rich get richer, poor get poorer and Bojo looks like the next leader of our country.

How is May surviving with the shambles around her? It seems to be purely because of the utter ineptitude of her opposition. It’s utter madness! I actually miss the competence of a Blair or a Cameron right now.

Cameron was honestly no more competent than May. He was just better at giving the illusion that he was. Important to remember that the main reasons May seems to be struggling so badly were all caused by Cameron and were all self-inflicted wounds.

But yeah, if May was dealt Cameron's hand she'd have probably done fine; Cameron would likely have fared no better if he had come second.

I'll give you Blair. Not really my cup of tea but can't say he wasn't a steady enough hand. Might still be Pm if it wasn't for Iraq.

There's probably a train of thought that Labour would be doing a lot better now if Ed hadn't resigned in 2015 - especially as the reasons for that, if I remember rightly, were largely that the Lib Dem vote went through the floor but percentage wise shifted to UKIP rather than either main party. I'm sure there's some more nuance to that - I wouldn't actually be surprised if the UKIP surge was caused by Tory voters defecting to them, and that the Tory and Labour parties both gained the Lib Dem vote roughly equally (although even that seems weird to me, as you'd expect an LD voter not to shift to the Tories. Then again, I wouldn't have thought the LDs would prop up a Tory Government, so what do I know?). Either way, the collapsing LD vote was, in my opinion, what essentially cost the Labour party rather than any of their campaigning in 2015 - their voter share actually increased fractionally in that election, if I remember rightly.

Certainly, Ed was a much harder target for the press than Corbyn has, sadly, proven to be.

But yeah, Cameron made the rod that May's back is currently having to deal with. The EU referendum should, in my opinion, have never been an option, let alone a promise.

I honestly think he'd taken a mauling, and it would have been nearly impossible for him to stay on. And lord knows the press went after him as much as they have gone after Corbyn - lest we forget 'Red Ed'. That said, I think there'd be a stronger position overall if he had been able to weather the storm, although god only knows if he'd been able to fight back against May the way Corbyn did in 2017. And I think we forget just how much that was supposed to be a walkover.

As to the 2015 election, I think it's a combination of factors. The Labour vote collapsing in Scotland was one thing. They actually increased their share in England, I believe, but only picked up a few seats which in no way counteracted the bleeding out that happened in Scotland through the SNP surge. And then because the Lib Dem vote collapsed, but it collapsed harder in those seats where they were traditionally Lib/Con marginals, and so although some of those votes were returning to Labour it didn't matter much in the long run, and gave seats back to the Conservatives.

It's why the Conservatives were gain barely anything on the swing and less of a swing overall than Labour, and yet still come out looking like they were nailed on winners. Labour's net gain of 13 seats in England and Wales was cancelled out by losing 40 seats in Scotland, and the Conservatives better track record of picking off their coalition partners (23 gains) was enough to undo anything they lost to Labour, and more.

In short, Scotland put Labour in a hole going forward. It's very hard to see Labour getting a majority now they've lost their Scottish heartlands to the SNP. Not only did it become a rod to beat Labour with, that they'd be held hostage by the SNP, but if you add forty seats to Miliband's total in 2015, or even another thirty to Corbyn's total in 2017, and you've got a party that is roughly the same size as the Tories and a much more viable opposition.

But the result was actually decided by the Southwest that year. If you look at the seats that changed hands from LD to Conservative, they are largely down that way or on the South Coast. Bath, Chippenham, Cheltenham, Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Lewes, North Cornwall, North Devon, Portsmouth South, St Austell and Newquay, Taunton Deane, Torbay, Wells and Yeovil: all in the South west or on the South coast, and enough between them that if they'd all stayed LD the Tories would have been nine short of a majority. But the swing to UKIP was huge down there.

Like Oliver I've always been a bit confused about it. I personally think that it probably isn't a straight swing from LD to UKIP, and that there's more Tories moving right as floating Lib Dems head back to the Tories. But I could be wrong - maybe there's just a lot of protest voters moving from one protest party to another, who knows?

It isn't, and whilst I'd love to enjoy the Tory party tearing themselves apart of the EU (again - this has been going on for decades now, hasn't it?) all these, to use a Major parlance, bastards are achieving is going to be fucking over the country long term with no deal as the outcome.

I mean, the DUP have already ruled themselves out of voting for it, as I understand, so May's already not got a majority. Then she's haemorrhaging votes from all sides in her own party - the Eurosceptics who think it ties us too closely to the EU for too long, and the Europhiles (if there is such a thing as a Tory Europhile) who think it divorces us too far away from the EU. Labour have their five conditions which I think haven't all been met, and then there's the smaller parties like the SNP, Lib Dems, and Greens who won't ever support it.

It's dead in the water. But it always was going to be. The thing is, now May has nobody to turn the gun on but herself over this.