Irene May Rake the East Coast ~

Irene May Rake the East Coast ~

After a busy but undramatic start, the 2011 hurricane season is
threatening to get serious. Hurricane Irene, the ninth named storm
of the season, but only its first Atlantic hurricane, formed early
on Monday near Puerto Rico. The Washington Post had this report on
Monday at noon (“Hurricane
Irene heads toward Hispaniola and US as it threatens to gain
strength,” by Associated Press).
Hurricane expert Dr. Jeff Masters says that an unpredictable low
pressure area moving over the U.S. makes Irene’s future track
something of a guessing game (“Hurricane
Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola,” by Jeff
Masters).
“A trough of low pressure is expected to move across the
Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, turning Irene more to the
northwest by Wednesday,” writes Masters. “The timing
and strength of this trough varies considerably from model to
model, and will be critical in determining where and when Irene
will turn to the north. Irene's strength will also matter--a
stronger Irene is more likely to turn northward earlier. The most
popular solution among the models is to take Irene to the northwest
through the Bahamas on Wednesday and Thursday, then into the
Southeast U.S. coast in South Carolina or North Carolina on
Saturday. Irene would then travel up the mid-Atlantic coast,
arriving near Long Island, New York on Monday morning as a strong
tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane. One of the models proposing
this solution is our best model, the ECMWF. However, we have two
other of our very good models suggesting a landfall near Miami on
Thursday night is likely (the GFDL and UKMET models.)”
As of Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center’s
best guess had Irene slamming into Charleston, S.C. at 9 AM on
Saturday, August 27. “Officials in Charleston, South
Carolina, warned residents to monitor Irene closely,” the
Washington Post reported. But with forecast models varying by the
hour, that forecast is highly uncertain. Washington itself might be
looking at a 5-inch deluge from Irene — or it might not, the
Post reported (“Will
Hurricane Irene generate a Washington, D.C. deluge?” by Jason
Samenow). “Last night’s GFS model showed the entire
metro region through the Northeast getting upwards of 5” of
rain. Today it simulates just some showers, with the heavy rain
pushed off to the east and north from the North Carolina Outer
Banks to New England.”
Time, of course, will tell — and amateur hurricane
watchers have plenty of ways to watch events unfold. If
you’re following along at home, here are links to a couple of
the storm-tracking websites with good graphics: IbisEye and Stormpulse