8/15/2010

August 10, the United States, "McCain number" destroyer arrived in Da Nang in Vietnam. Officer to visit Vietnam, "McCain number."

Core tips

In the Obama administration, the current Asia-Pacific forces are balance, highlighting China's growing influence, the United States will be "marginalized." So the United States would like to get "East Asian balance" to the increasingly important East Asian to play a greater influence.

- Tao Zhao (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Institute of American Studies Fellow)

Around the United States to China to build "C-shaped ring of encirclement" is not sensational, the media on this image to "the Asian version of NATO" is taking shape.

Sino-US relations that some people had expected "more mature", but of which contains a potential military crisis.

- Ni Lexiong (Shanghai Institute Professor of Political Science)

News pretext

Recent years, Sino-US relations spin "stir." With "Tian An" incident, the 15th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations with Vietnam, the U.S. military exercise in China's neighboring regions do indeed continuous "two-move more": With the ROK-US exercises strengthen the ROK-US alliance; inhibited the relocation of U.S. bases in Japan; Vietnamese troops with U.S. play "spoiler" South China Sea issue, and then form a "North and South contain" China's situation.

At the same time, U.S. public opinion towards China seems to become increasingly tough. For example, former U.S. Permanent Representative to the UN John Bolton recently in "The Wall Street Journal" published a very tough language "against China's roaring," the article.

Thus, the Sino-US relations are considered to have signs of growing into the fight. Whether the United States to adjust its China policy? The recent Sino-US "daggers drawn" in the end from what? What is the purpose behind the US-Vietnam military exercise? Round table this week, we invited two expert on Sino-US issue, explore the topic from different perspectives.

Purpose of the exercise: U.S. C-shaped surrounded by "Asian version of NATO" is formed

From the Yellow Sea, to the South China Sea, the U.S. aircraft carrier is triumphantly a variety of high-profile military exercise in China's periphery.

Ni Lexiong interviewed said that the current situation from the view, the United States and Vietnam jointly lightning, and have verified the United States in China's neighboring building "C-shaped ring of encirclement" is real, rather than sensational, the media have graphically described " Asian version of NATO "is taking shape.

He expressed concern expressed that China-US relations in some "maturing" of the expected, in fact, contains a potential military crisis.

Ni Lexiong said: "Despite the recent large-scale Sino-US conflict will not arise, but any conflict before entering the war will have a clear enemy of the. I strongly advocate that China should have a strong navy, to maintain deterrence in the South China Sea in order to change the United States military strategic situation is not balanced, consolidate the territorial seas. "

For the United States frequently, "Sword," the purpose of Ni Lexiong image that the Chinese martial arts used a similar scene: a formal duel before, the parties will not touch land for a few appearances, put a few Pose. United States is still in place Pose stage.

He explained that the military conflict in the United States suppressed the background, from a pragmatic point of view Obama administration, military exercises have become profit-making tools - such as seeking influence in the Asia-Pacific, the United States economic interests, made to seek compromise with China chips.

Decryption behind the scenes

China touches nerve United States

Dissatisfied with the Asia-Pacific pattern change

In the Tao-chiu, only a "Tian An" incident and other direct causes, the trend of Sino-US relations strained, fully reflects the changes in East Asia, the United States tried to "balance of power" aspirations.

Tao Zhao said that in the Obama administration, the current East Asian balance of power, the United States would like to get "balance in East Asia", with a view to the growing importance of East Asia to play a greater influence.

From Northeast Asia, the rapid development of China-ROK trade, China has become South Korea's largest trading partner; Japan had proposed the "East Asian Community" began to not even including the United States, these are the United States uneasy. In recent years academics hold the United States "on the Korean Peninsula to re-enter the Chinese sphere of influence" view, no doubt also contributed to the United States in East Asia seriously.

From Southeast Asia, Vietnam in 1973 after a long period of time, the U.S. lost interest in Southeast Asia, long neglected in Southeast Asia. On the contrary, cooperation between China and ASEAN economic integration has made substantial breakthroughs. In the U.S. view, China's growing influence in Southeast Asia underscores the United States is increasingly being "marginalized."

Tao Zhao pointed out that from Obama since he took office, America's "strategic balance" has been tilted to the East, Obama even called himself "Pacific president." Today, U.S. allies Japan and South Korea to consolidate, the US-Vietnam military cooperation, the United States to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN, etc., all indicate that the United States is promoting the "return to the East" strategy. Thus, the United States to return to action in East Asia, with China's interests would inevitably happen, "collision", and thus realize the United States to China, "prevent, contain, balance" the strategic objectives.

Future

Or will "compromise"

No need to overly pessimistic

The hardening of U.S. policy toward China, trying to change China policy statement, Tao Zhao pointed out that Obama foreign policy team currently no personnel adjustment, U.S. policy has not changed.

In addition, Tao Zhao believes that the voice of the American media has always been "odd", not because of media voices in a period to judge whether the strength of government decision-making, unless the sound is from the official.

High-level visits to resolve their differences

Tao Zhao said: "Many people prefer to use the 'contain' China policy description, in fact, the Cold War that have strong color, I think U.S. policy is 'to prevent, check and balance' a more appropriate description."

In his view, on the one hand, we must recognize the complexity of bilateral relations, but must also see that the Sino-US interdependence, mutual need and mutual constraints fact.

For the current Sino-US tensions, Tao Zhao researchers believe that after the struggle through a series of Sino-US eventually "mutual compromise", by mechanism of dialogue platforms (such as high-level visits, military exchanges, strategic and economic dialogue, etc.) to resolve or minimize their differences.

Against the status quo does not meet the real

Tao Zhao pointed out that the "compromise" U.S. diplomacy itself is an art to those who believe that Sino-US confrontation, or to "proxy war" view is too pessimistic, do not meet the real situation of Sino-US relations.

On the future development of Sino-US relations, Professor Ni Lexiong, two-handed U.S. policy toward China "containment and engagement," does not fundamentally change, there is the use of means of "phase change" (such as the recent U.S. military forces frequently show) This change is intended to achieve the higher interests of the United States more or pave the way for cooperation.

The lessons of history

To be truly responsible big country

Stop the allies act rashly

For the current "North-South pincer attack" situation, Ni Lexiong that the source of a series of events, dates back to inter-Korean sudden "Tian An" incident.

"Tian An" incident occurred, although in the end who led the South Korean frigate sank in that there are disputes, but South Korea has found that the "culprit", in order to demonstrate enhanced the prestige of high-profile win over the United States joined the exercise.

Historically, before the outbreak of World War I, the Austro-Hungarian Crown Prince Ferdinand June 28, 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, and then lost control and eventually became the event of war.

Although the situation is unlikely to lead to war, can not be completely analog, but small alliance between the frequent accidental loss of control, from the interactive nature of the hostile relationship between the structure of view, and "Ferdinand the incident" similar.

From a historical perspective, the country really wants to take great responsibility for peace, should be wary of such "Tian An" incident occurred out of control, to try to stop the alliance of small countries "to act rashly."