Romney Following Reagan's Lead: Two Down, One To Go For The Presidency

We often hear that history repeats itself. In the world of campaigning, however, it is astonishing how often candidates refuse to repeat what works. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, may prove to be the exception.

As I wrote last month, Romney used his convention to make voters feel more comfortable with him and debunk Obama’s anti-Romney hyperbole. Romney then used the first two debates just like Reagan did in 1980, i.e. people saw that Romney belongs and that he is a leader. Now Romney needs to complete the Reagan cycle and press his advantage all the way to Election Day.

For a challenger to win, most often, at least two and preferably three things must occur:

people must believe the current conditions, economic or otherwise, are not good enough (a must),

the challenger must appear voter friendly and up to the job (nearly a must), and

the challenger should provide a viable alternative to the incumbent (preferably so, especially if the challenger wants a mandate).

In this election, the public believes the current situation is not good enough by a wide margin. The right track/wrong track polls show that for well over a year. Sometimes that is almost enough, by itself, as Obama proved in 2008. People thought things were so bad they were willing to take a risk with the untested Obama. The election of 1932 was another example of an election decided largely because of how bad the times were.

Today, most Americans arrived at the conclusion that we are on the wrong track without the prodding of Obama’s rivals. But like most elections, that has not proven enough - in part because the Media has so protected this President.

The challenge of the Romney campaign, therefore, was to achieve at least #2. Voters must feel comfortable with him and he must appear Presidential. Romney used his convention to achieve the comfortability factor just as Reagan did.

Romney then used the first two debate just as Reagan did in his only debate appearance with Carter in 1980. Reagan was likeable, confident, in command and proved he belonged on the stage. Romney has done the same. In other words, Romney completed two out of the three key steps Reagan took to beat an incumbent.

Reagan pulled away in the end, in part, because he achieved #3 – he provided voters with a viable alternative. Indeed, Reagan’s 1980 campaign was an idea filled campaign.

History remembers that to the end of his campaign, not only did he highlight issues that made people upset about the current situation, Reagan speeches and appearances pressed specifics. His speech in Mexico was a big idea speech about a North American Accord – which later became NAFTA. Reagan also pressed his tax ideas not only in speeches but at length with reporters.

According to Peter Hannaford, who worked with Michael Deaver at the time, “Reagan would weave them into his stump speech. The press corps, especially TV crews, would be alerted that there would be an insert in his speech. A handout summarizing the new information would be furnished to them.” Hannaford said that “The purpose was to keep the focus on Reagan, to build momentum, to show that he was the candidate with the ideas.”

Importantly, Reagan kept pressing ahead with those new ideas all the way to the end. By doing so, he kept Carter in a responsive mode and when he got elected, Reagan claimed a mandate based on those ideas.

Romney should achieve the same in these final 3 weeks. Rather than play it safe and hope the clock runs out, he should press his advantage and keep up his momentum. By constantly pushing new ideas, he can keep the idea-less Obama campaign in a reactive mode and unable to catch up. That is a recipe for victory and a mandate.