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Friday, May 25, 2012

Typhoon Sanvu Update #9

During the gap of our updates, Typhoon Sanvu has managed to strengthen and reach a maximum sustained intensity of around 155kph (and gusts of up to 185kph). Latest analysis, however, are putting the sustained winds at around 140kph with gusts of up to 165kph. Typhoon Sanvu was last located approximately 250km southwest of Iwo To, Japan. It is currently moving north northeastward at 15kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Typhoon Sanvu has developed a cloud-free eye earlier today. However, as you can see on the latest infra-red image above, much of it has become ragged and asymmetrical. Much of the convection has waned and the 91Ghz microwave eye (not shown here) has opened as well; these are probably the reasons why the intensity was lowered down to 140kph.

Nevertheless, the system remains well intact and the eye is still visible on the satellite, despite it being ragged. Banding is still present and since conditions remain favorable, we are still expecting Sanvu to maintain present intensity. In fact, the JTWC is still forecasting it to intensify a little bit overnight.

Sanvu is now nearing Iwo To, Japan and the rest of Ogasawara Islands. JMA has not issued any storm warnings although they do have High Waves Warning for the said islands. Unfortunately, we don't have radar coverage in this area; our rain forecasts, however, is expecting 50 to 100mm of rain in some parts through Saturday afternoon. Based on latest movements, we expect Sanvu to pass within 50km of Iwo To early tomorrow morning and within 200km of Chichi-Jima later tomorrow evening.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Sanvu is then forecasted to race to the northeast as it interacts with the westerlies. It is forecast to become extra-tropical as early as Sunday. We'll have another update tomorrow morning.
___________________________________________Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 052512