Let's get this out the way right now: Yes, your avocados would cost more if a proposed 20 percent border tax on Mexican imports were to become reality.

That being said, the import tax floated by the White House on Thursday as a possible way to fund President Donald Trump's proposed wall along the Mexican border likely would face tremendous opposition in Congress, judging from the swift backlash from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.

Mexico is one of the largest trading partners with the U.S., and in 2015, the U.S. imported $295 billion in goods from Mexico, with vehicles and electric machinery topping the list, according to the United States Trade Representative. Mexico is also the second-largest supplier of agricultural imports to the U.S. — everything from fresh vegetables and fruit to wine and beer.

In Illinois, imports from Mexico totaled more than $13 billion in 2015, more than double the amount in 2009, according the Illinois Department of Commerce & Economic Opportunity. Mexico is Illinois' third-largest import market.

Border adjustment v. border tax

After widespread criticism of the tariff, White House spokesman Sean Spicer later said it was just one option to finance a wall.

Some have speculated that Spicer's initial comments were obliquely referring to the "border adjustments" that are part of House Republicans' tax reform plan, which would tax all imported goods and services into the U.S. That proposal would also lower the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 20 percent.

But there are major differences between the two concepts.

President Donald Trump's press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters on Thursday that the administration had an idea that would force Mexico to pay for the construction of a wall on the border between our two countries.

The strategy? The White House could advocate for a 20 percent tax on Mexican...

"(The House Republican) plan would exempt all U.S. exports from U.S. tax, but prohibit U.S. firms from deducting the cost of products they import from other countries, an idea called border adjustability," Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center, a joint venture of the Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution, wrote in a blog post Thursday.

In contrast, Trump's border tariff could "apply to a single product, a specific company, or all goods and services from a country," Gleckman said.

A 20 percent tariff on Mexico alone would violate commitments in the World Trade Organization, said James Sawyer, head of the customs and international trade practice at Drinker Biddle law firm.

"Unless (Trump) is alleging that Mexico has unfair trade practices, you can't just raise tariffs on one country," he said.

The president doesn't have the authority to impose a 20 percent tax unilaterally, just on one country, said Douglas Irwin, a Dartmouth College economics professor and an expert in international trade policy. But he could impose an import tax of up to 15 percent for 150 days, after which it would need congressional approval.

Higher prices

Any tax on imports coming into the U.S. likely would mean higher prices on what people eat and drink, what they wear and even where they live.

"Retailers are loath to increase prices because it's the primary way they compete," said Brian Dodge, spokesman for the Retail Industry Leaders Association. "But given the size of the border adjustment tax impact, it's unavoidable."

Just how much prices go up would vary by industry and company, depending in part on how reliant they are on imported goods.

Experts say the price of some imported goods could increase as much as 20 percent if a border adjustment tax was passed. Still, U.S. price levels overall would likely rise by an estimated 0.5 to 2 percent, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in January.

Retailers including Gap, Wal-Mart and Target declined to comment on the border tax idea floated by the White House.

Buyers of newly constructed homes could also face higher prices. About 30 percent of the materials that go into a home come from Canada and a significant amount of raw materials come from Mexico, said Robert Dietz, economist for the National Association of Home Builders.

Avocados, beer and Mexican Oreos

Roughly 60 percent of the avocados sold in the U.S. come from Mexico, a number that grows to more than 80 percent in the winter months, said Peter Testa, president of Testa Produce, one of Chicago's longtime produce wholesalers. Other vegetables from Mexico include cucumbers, peppers and cilantro.

A 20 percent border tax "would be a disaster for the entire food industry. It would affect every aspect of food coming into the U.S.," Testa said.

At Big Star, a Wicker Park restaurant known for its tacos and margaritas, a tariff would squeeze business.

"If we're forced to add a 20 percent tax to our costs, we will need to raise prices to maintain our use of strictly fresh ingredients and to avoid compromising our values. As a result, we could see a loss of business, as would many Chicago restaurants," Big Star's chef de cuisine Julie Warpinski said in an email.

Large food and beverage companies are watching this all unfold and choosing their words carefully.

Constellation Brands' beer division, based in Chicago, makes and imports Mexican beers like Corona and Modelo. In a recent conference call with analysts, CEO Rob Sands said the company was bracing for different scenarios but expected to be able to offset a border adjustment by shifting some supply chain costs from Mexico to the U.S. instead of hiking prices.

"We've had tons of discussions internally, but until legislation is passed through Congress, it's going to be way too hard to tell what impact any legislation will have on our industry or on our business," spokesman Mike McGrew said Friday.

Last year, Deerfield-based Mondelez International laid off about 600 of its 1,200 workers from the longtime Nabisco bakery on Chicago's Southwest Side known for making Oreos and shifted some of its operations to Mexico. Some of the laid-off workers have since been called back to the factory.

Mondelez spokeswoman Laurie Guzzinati declined to comment specifically on the tax idea, but one of the unions representing workers at the Chicago plant didn't dismiss it.

Trump's proposed border tax might not be such a bad thing if it means American companies will think twice before exporting jobs out of the country, said Ron Baker, spokesman for the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers and Grain Millers union, which felt the largest impact of the Mondelez layoffs.

"I voted for Hillary. I'm not a Trump supporter. But I'm concerned about American workers," Baker said.