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November 2010

11/30/2010

This poster recently appeared pasted on a street sign near the State Department in Washington, DC.

The run-up to the summit in Astana has been a debilitating and demoralizing process, and the diplomats and NGOs who stuck it out to the end to try to keep waving the Helsinki flag are to be commended. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Astana and was scheduled to speak at an NGO event. All well and good.

Even so, participation in this entire distended fandago has come at a cost, and it has involved some erosion of our principles and some compromise, and a little bit of that frog-boiling-in-water syndrome that OSCE enterprises always seem to involve.

Some observers believe that the U.S., which has long had a cosy relationship with Kazakhstan for energy and geopolitical interests, sold out to Astana last spring when it was negotiating participation of Kazakhstan in the Northern Distribution Network that delivers non-lethal supplies to the troops in Afghanistan via Central Asia. In fact, the U.S. dragged out these negotiations for months, tried to do what it could -- and surprisingly, even deployed President Obama himself to publicly raise the case of jailed human rights leader Evgeny Zhovtis. It's not every day that you use up the chit of having the leader of the Western world raise a single case like that -- and not win it -- but in this case, losing was winning, because it only served to point up to the Kazakhs that Obama himself was willing to take up the rights of an individual, and it only highlighted the unacceptable obstructivism of Astana on the case.

Zhovtis was put away in jail on the eve of Kazakhstan's assuming the chair, and kept out of action so as not to influence it -- although he was able to smuggle out some statements and appeals (his last one noted that he had begun to be punished for doing so). It was Zhenya's idea to have Kazakhstan chair the OSCE in the first place, in the belief that it might shine a spotlight on human rights abuses and possibly serve as a spur to improve them.

It didn't.

Turning back on Live Journal hardly counts if one of the main opposition blogs on LJ is still blocked. As the OSCE rapporteur on media has protested, a journalist, Ramazan Esergepov, still remains in prison (his "state secrets" being nothing more than reporting on a criminal case that in a normal country would be open to reporting by the press). And on and on.

When I say our principles became somewhat tattered, I mean that we were forced to paper over the lack of human rights progress and the shocking negligence in responding to the pogroms in southern Kyrgyzstan in order to do business with people of ill will, and their GONGOs -- which was one of the most odious features of all these review conferences, spread in time and place over three cities in three months -- and I'm not sure, to the benefit of human rights.

The Turkmen human rights activists who have been coming to OSCE were jerked around, and while some were let in finally in Warsaw and Vienna, some were not, and ultimately none of them got visas for Astana. There was the blunt and thuggish message, regrettably tacitly conceded by being also relayed by Western diplomats, that "their safety could not be guaranteed," i.e. they might have to be extradited back to Turkmenistan on a trumped-up Interpol request from Ashgabat. Shame on them. The Turkmen dissidents have sent out an appeal. Chief among their points is that the OSCE office in Ashgabat has long since stopped trying to promote democracy and is merely simulating it -- if it were doing its job probably, I say, it would be kicked out. And that would be ok, as it could then decamp to Vienna and serve as the office-in-exile until such time as the government is willing to normalize.

The parallel summit -- oops, I mean the...parallel conference did in the end come off, with 177 participants, 59 of whom were from Kazakhstan, and an additional 11 of whom were ODIHR staff (among the guests was -- I'm not kidding! -- Nina Belyayeva, the Russian lawyer and expert on associations (I'll say!) who was appearing in her capacity as an ODIHR expert on NGO law. She advocated that the police and NGOs work together). Of course, quite a few out of the 59 from Kazakhstan and a certain number of others were GONGOs.

At least some of the worst OSCE problems were mentioned -- the killing of journalists, ideas for how to try to gain more solidarity, education, and action for threatened reporters, and the harassment and killing of human rights activists, and how to get better protection for them.

But it must be said: the NGOs compromised in having their meeting in Astana. In part, it was about the things that didn't get said that were "too big" -- the failure of OSCE even to land a police mission in Osh, the failure to cope with the violence in southern Kyrgyzstan, and the spillover and implications of the war in Afghanistan. To be sure, someone raised Askarov's case and at first got an unacceptable response....

I personally think it would have been more honourable to have the meeting outside of Kazakhstan, and on better terms -- without GONGOs and without Kazakh government officials taking up the scarce air time.

11/29/2010

Hillary Clinton is heading to Astana for the OSCE Summit, and is supposed to attend a civil society event, which will evidently help "send the message" that the independent sector needs to be strengthened in Kazakhstan. It's also a level below the president -- and that's a good thing. I think it would definitely be the wrong idea for President Obama to show up at this coerced affair and have to be photographed with the Dictators' Club -- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev and the other Central Asian despots.

I've been meeting to write a longer post about this summit -- but it's so...demotivating...to contemplate it that I keep putting it off.

No one seems to have blogged yet about this cable and another that reveals the lavish lifestyles of these partying former Party types -- and just how capricious and autocratic they are (like that was a secret?!)

Prime Minister Masimov is spotted dancing solo in a club to 1:00 am, and Defense Minister Akhmetov, known to hit the bottle, is reported "eyes-on" (witnessed) showing up drunk to a meeting with a U.S. defense attache and admitting he was toasting some cadets at a graduation.

Gas big-wig Idenov is portrayed barking into his cell phone ordering around a British Gas country director and drinking Coke instead of vodka.

There are lots of horses, and plov, too. And lamb. Lamb that is "well done, never rare...this is Astana, not London!"

Then there's that time they flew in Elton John and paid him a reported million pounds to sing for the leaders.

But we knew that already, didn't we?

These cables have an XXXXX protect over the name of the president's wife's friend and some other words that appear not to be just source names-- and that is yet another indication of how certain cables were redacted by the Wikileakers, apparently in compliance with U.S. State Department requests, although supposedly they weren't going to heed them.

Foreign Minister Kanat Saudabayev, currently the chair-in-office of OSCE, is featured in the cable, but with nothing more sinister than hosting a co-del -- whose names we don't get, but using the date and other clues, probably somebody could come up with it -- but it's likely already known.

There's also a story of expulsion of Chevron execs from a meeting by KazMunaiGas First Vice President Maskat Idenov over what sounds like merely a fit of capricious temper because the exec (Hollingsworth) couldn't find a cell number fast enough but is really about some power play -- "the ascendant Idenov appears determined to show the international majors that they need to deal with him."

Apparently it wasn't the first time that U.S. oil majors got chucked out of a meeting -- and this is, of course, the same rudeness and crassness we saw on display at OSCE in Warsaw and other venues by our lovely chair-in-office team.

In another cable written (or at least classified/signed by Amb. Richard Hoagland), we get a snapshot of the intellectually-intriguing and information-packed diplomatic life that the Wikileaks *can only envy* because the cables just don't do the actual experience justice -- and it can never be taken away from our foreign service officers:

On June 5, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Guoping hosted the Ambassador for dinner at the restaurant on the 23rd floor of a striking new hotel built in Astana and owned by the Chinese National Petroleum Company. During a fascinating, wide-ranging, three-hour tour d’horizon, the Chinese Ambassador discussed his government’s policy -- and occasionally made personal comments -- on human rights, smart power, President Obama, Afghanistan’s reconstruction, Russia’s policy in Central Asia, Georgian President Saakashvili, Iran’s upcoming presidential elections, North Korea’s nuclear tests, Central Asia’s energy resources, the Manas air base, and the proposed international nuclear fuel bank. The Chinese Ambassador clearly enjoyed the free and easy, open-ended conversation and invited the Ambassador to meet again, at the restaurant, in the near future. Guoping was joined by an unidentified policy advisor and an interpreter, to whom he addressed his remarks in soft whispers throughout the evening.

And here's a pro-tip for human rights activists -- and the State Department officials who try to fend them off: the Chinese government EXPECTS you to raise human rights -- so raise them!

Guoping was relaxed, wearing short sleeves and no jacket, and clearly eager to engage and entertain his American guests. He began the evening by referring to the recent visit to Beijing of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Without openly acknowledging or discussing the twentieth anniversary of the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square protests, Guoping said the government was prepared, and also fearful, for the Speaker to raise human rights and democracy issues during her visit. “She had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) scared to death on the eve of her visit,” Guoping said, half-jokingly.

I wonder if Pelosi raised anything pertinent after all that.

Note the Chinese flattery -- Obama's Cairo speech, now being critiqued for going soft on democratic struggles, is praised for being exemplary of "smart power".

Here's an interesting tid-bit on the NDN as well -- yes, funny to think of China supporting NATO -- but Afghanistan is in Asia, and China should do more, and do it explicitly. I wonder where this stands now:

In particular, Guoping said that the Northern Distribution Network to transport non-lethal supplies to U.S. troops in Afghanistan has enabled many countries to participate in Afghanistan’s reconstruction. He said that the Chinese government is aware of the U.S. government’s request to transit non-lethal supplies via China and said “we are actively researching this suggestion. In essence, it would mean that the People’s Republic of China would be supporting a NATO military operation, which would be an interesting development.” Guoping confided that China’s MFA and its Ministry of Defense have different opinions on the subject, although he said he expected a decision soon. “My own personal opinion,” he said, “is that we will do the right thing and cooperate with NATO and the U.S. government in Afghanistan.” Guoping said this would be an appropriate issue to raise in the context of the President’s visit to Beijing in July.

Oh, but there's a price:

Guoping said that Russia is experiencing “severe difficulty” now because of the global financial crisis. He suggested that the government of Russia is eager to improve relations with the United States now because Moscow is concerned that the economic downturn will begin to affect the political stability of the country, “even the stability of the Kremlin.” Guoping said that Russia does not want or need any foreign policy problems right now; “they need to focus on their domestic, economic affairs.” Guoping also said that Russia would like more support from the United States for its insistence on a privileged sphere of influence in Central Asia, in exchange for greater cooperation in Afghanistan. “Russia is convinced that they must dominate Central Asia and the Caucasus. They believe they have vital, strategic, historical interests in the region,” Guoping said. When pressed by the Ambassador to express his own opinion, Guoping said, “I personally do not agree that Russia should be granted a special sphere of influence in the region, but that is their view.”

And here's one for the Sovietologists -- and Russophiles, as it blames the U.S. for Russia's invasion of Georgia instead of placing the blame for aggression prior to the invasion on Russia:

Guoping suggested that Secretary Rice’s July 2008 visit to Georgia before the war in August 2008, might have indirectly encouraged Saakashvili to take military action. He said his understanding was that Saakashvili briefed Secretary Rice on his plans to mobilize Georgian armed forces and when she did not directly object, Saakashvili mistook that as a sign of U.S. support.

Ah, but the life of the diplomat has its hazards:

The revolving restaurant provides a spectacular panorama of Astana, and the empty steppe beyond, but it seems to revolve at varying speeds and sometimes can be a bit too fast on a full stomach and after a few glasses of wine.

One's own stomach may be turning now at how much sucking up our government has done to Kazakhstan.

Well, you needn't have worried because *every single one of them* got re-elected.

Whoever put this caucus together was a genius for figuring out how to bullet-proof a caucus from both sides of the aisle -- even in Virginia, which turned from blue (Democratic) to red (Republican) and even in some very tough races in California and Nevada, the CCCA members all won.

Oh, but they didn't campaign about Central Asia, Lord no.

In fact, Central Asia wasn't mentioned during the elections at all (that I could find), unless you count Afghanistan -- which was mentioned sometimes, but only after bunches of other issues, whether driving while talking on your cell phone, gay marriage, witchcraft -- oh, and maybe oil drilling and the bailout.

To follow this caucus, however, first...you'd have to know who's in it!

Some of the individual members might mention that they are a member of this or that caucus on their web page, but not all of them do that.

Faleomavaega, once a member of Democratic Socialists of America, was instrumental in creating the caucus. His interest in the region grew out of his opposition to nuclear testing in American Samoa, which he represents, and the similarity of the issue for Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan.

There are an enormous number of tools to track Congress now in too-much-information glory. You can find out what they are having for breakfast on Twitter; you can see which lobbies are partying with them; you can find out what payments they get from foreign governments (this is legal, and merely has to be reported under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act).

You can find out that Kazakhstan spent $320,000 last year (my God, we're a cheap date!), and the Turkmen-American Business Council spent $140,000 -- but on what, you have to look further, if you have the patience to dredge through the gadzillion data bases that are out there now, some of them which even let you run scripts off their servers overnight. We know that Kazakhstan seems to have bought itself a few think-tanks and buttered up a few members of Congress, judging from the enthusiasm for its chairing of the OSCE and the acceptance of the Astana summit proposal. The sad thing is, it hardly took any funds at all (a fraction of that $240,000, which was probably focused more on oil deals and such.)

I managed to put together a list of the Congressional Caucus on Central Asia and a few notes -- but I'm not 100 percent sure it is accurate and up to date (to the best of my knowledge, this is a list of people who signed up for this caucus in 2009 and remained in it this year, and also retained their seats after the November 2010 elections reported by the New York Times).

We don't hear much from CCCA -- but perhaps the secret is...there is no secret! Perhaps they haven't been very active as a caucus? Anybody?