A Trump Win Might Wreck the Republican Party

Donald
Trump’s rapidly rising candidacy is causing many observers to
attempt to analyze whether he is more similar to Billionaire Ross
Perot’s Presidential candidacy in 1992 or George C. Wallace’s
Presidential candidacy in 1968.

On
the surface, one would think that Trump is more like Perot, a
billionaire with unlimited funds who was campaigning to change
America’s direction, particularly on the issue of the burgeoning
national debt. Perot showed insensitivity toward African Americans
and other minority groups, and showed instability in his own
personality, as when he withdrew from the race and then re-entered
it. His support was high enough in public opinion polls, however,
that he was permitted to participate in Presidential debates with
President George H. W. Bush and Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton,
although at the end, Perot ended up winning no states, and therefore,
no electoral votes, although winning 18.9 percent of the total
national popular vote, the second highest percentage ever in American
history, just behind former President Theodore Roosevelt’s 27.5
percent of the vote Progressive (Bull Moose) Party candidacy in 1912.
As controversial as Perot was, he never, however, caused the kind of
national division that George C. Wallace achieved in 1968, and that
it appears that Donald Trump is creating now in 2016.

When
one examines George C. Wallace’s American Independent Party
candidacy in 1968, one sees a lot of similarities to Trump’s
candidacy in 2016. Wallace used incendiary language and racist
rhetoric in a way similar to what Donald Trump has displayed toward
Mexican American immigrants and Muslims. Wallace aroused his
audiences to turn against protesters who showed up at his rallies,
just as Trump has done. Both Wallace and Trump have displayed total
intolerance of anyone who dares to disagree with them. Both Wallace
and Trump have attacked the “Establishment,” the Democrats for
Wallace and the Republicans for Trump. Both Wallace and Trump have
made totally reckless statements, and drawn support from right wing
extremists and hate groups such as the Ku Klux Klan and other White
Supremacist groups. Both Wallace and Trump have been unwilling to
separate themselves from hate groups or to repudiate them.

Both
Wallace and Trump have been “wrecking balls” to the parties they
claimed to want to lead, and both have shown total ignorance about
world affairs, and really, any detailed understanding of the issues
that an American President must face. Both Wallace and Trump have
drawn support from frustrated white males, who are insecure due to
the growing influence of minorities in America, who they see as
taking away their own position in the social rankings of American
life. Both Wallace and Trump have appealed to ignorant, poorly
educated people, disillusioned with government, and critical of the
news media and educated people. Both Wallace and Trump appeal to
those who think there are simple answers to complex issues. Finally,
both Wallace and Trump are totally opportunists, with no clear cut
viewpoints that they believe in, other than their own advancement and
aggrandizement.

Wallace
won five Southern states in 1968, and 46 electoral votes, the second
best third party performance in American history behind TR’s 1912
third party candidacy, which won six states and 88 electoral votes.
Wallace also won 13.5 percent of the total national popular vote, the
fourth best performance ever in American history. The question is
whether there is any possibility of Donald Trump drawing support on
the scale of TR or Wallace were he to run on a third party line.

Certainly,
IF Trump is the GOP Presidential nominee, he will win most of the
South (Wallace territory) and other traditional Republican states,
but would have no possibility of winning enough electoral votes to be
elected President. Whether as a third party candidate, he could match
TR or Wallace in winning five or six states and somewhere between 46
and 88 electoral votes seems highly unlikely.

George
C. Wallace may have helped to elect Richard Nixon in 1968, while Ross
Perot may have helped to elect Bill Clinton in 1992. Donald Trump
represents a candidacy that can destroy the Republican Party as we
know it, and elect Hillary Clinton, or even Bernie Sanders, as
President. Whether the campaign of Donald Trump can do long term
damage to the whole American political system is the more worrisome
issue to ponder.