Focus on the Near East as it overlaps the rest of the world

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Who Governs Syria? The following is an article by a Russian expert on Middle
Eastern affairs. It is a serious article and is aimed
at informing academics and policy makers in Russia as to the history and nature
of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The picture is complex and involves the family
and friends of the Syrian President, their rivalries, and their political and
financial assets. One cannot help but be reminded of
the internal workings of the great American Mafia families of a half-century ago. But
this family is armed with an army and an air force.Who Governs Syria? By Kirill Semenov, Head of the Center for Islamic Studies of
the Institute for Innovative Development This
article was published in the framework of the partnership between Expert Online
and the Russian Council of International Affairs. (Translation by Livingston
Merchant) As a result of
the military conflict in Syria, the complex structure of the inner circle of
President Bashar al-Assad has undergone changes, but not t…

At the moment the US is governed by a president with no knowledge of foreign affairs and without any inclination to learn. He only reacts. He is like the proverbial drunk monkey in a cage with a scorpion. Sometimes he is happy and makes stupid mistakes. Sometimes he gets stung and gets angry and makes stupid mistakes.

The monkey is supported by the wealthy who benefit from his "reforms" - tax reform, deregulation, appointment of billionaires on his board. He is also supported by politicians, mostly Republican, who would sell their grandmothers rather than lose their positions and by some elements in Russia, Israel, Iran, China, the "alt-right" in Europe, etc.

American policy is swerving like a computer-controlled automobile that has a broken chip in its executive protocols.

He governs by "chaos", his friends say. He insults the short, fat dictator of North Korea - then calls him his best friend. He insults allies and clo…

Democracy in America may very well be replaced by something much, much worse.

Flying the flag up-side down is a distress signal used by the American military and others when there is overwhelming danger. Polite demonstrations will not save it. Condescending news broad casts will not save it. Speeches by one or two clear-sighted men or women in the US Congress will not cut it. ALMOST EVERY OTHER ADVANCED COUNTRY HAS EXPERIENCED A COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRACY IN ITS HISTORY.

THIS PICTURE FROM THE WASHINGTON POST SAYS IT ALL. IF AMERICANS DO NOT WAKE UP TO THE FACT THAT THEIR PRECIOUS DEMOCRACY COULD ACTUALLY CRASH AND BURN, THEY ARE IN FOR AT LEAST A GENERATION OF AGONY.

For generations Americans have been under the illusion that they live in the land most free, most immune from invasion, never in danger from internal collapse, at least after that nasty Civil War was over and the racism and bigotry - both Northern and Southern - got swept under the carpet. They were also under the dangerous…

From the Buddha to la Peste: a Dirge in Prose for HungaryLivingston T. Merchant

High above the city generals of Attila's army
of Huns surround him drenched in blood. They are the prequel to Isis,
to Daesh. They slaughter, rape, enslave
and pillage:this marks the
"normal behavior" of humans in some societies in every period of
time. Near by Attila is a
center that has displayed Avant Guard "modern art" for decades. Nothing goes out of
fashion faster than avant garde.

Across the peaceful
Danube on another height on lookout point high above the city overweight Sergeants from
various armies climb to view their conquests. Ottoman, Hapsburg,
German, NATO: they soon go home exhausted. A quizzical patron St.
Stephen shares their view. In between the heights
lies the sparkling Magyar capital. A capital with an extreme nationalist government. Underneath the city lie the
corpses of Magyars and the invaders over the centuries. Above the corpses a few
businesses promote Yoga to housew…

I Love Turkey
In this article written seven years ago, the year before I moved from Turkey to the Netherlands, I outlined my understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of this great country. It was written before the bloody coup a year-and-a-half ago and the devastating purges of tens and tens of thousands of journalist, intellectuals, and political figures and government servants. It was also written before the President moved through constitutional changes to consolidate all power in his own hands. But none of this would have surprised me seven years ago. And I still love Turkey - from afar.

I Love Turkey: an Article Written Seven Years Ago
By Livingston
T. Merchant, Ph.D.

I love Turkey, but not
the way I love a cruise along the sparkling Mediterranean coast, not the way I
blindly love a lover, not the way I love an evening eating and drinking with
friends in a tavern. Rather, I love Turkey in the way I adore a
slightly unhinged cousin who suffers from attacks of genius alternati…

For decades the existence of the Regional Government of Kurdistan in northern Iraq has off and on been a useful tool and a source of annoyance for Turkey. It sometimes seemed to be a moderating force in a region racked by the attacks of the radical PKK. But always there was the underlying suspicion that the Kurds were up to something. Something usually meant listening to the siren call of an independent Kurdistan, which might attract the interest of millions of Kurds living in Turkey.

For decades Turkey has lived with this ambivalence. In the end the fear of Kurdish statehood has dominated Turkish policy. The military success of the PKK-aligned Kurdish fighters in northern Syria has led to something approaching panic in the Turkish government and military circles. It then led to a full-scale apoplectic fit when the Kurds of Iraq held a referendum about whether to found an independent Kurdistan. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor of independence. But then there was a sigh of relief …

After decades of slow-motion shifts towards Kurdish autonomy/independence/unification, the conflict in this region has shifted into high gear. The Iraqi army has invaded/retaken Kirkuk, which had first been captured by ISIS, then liberated by the Kurdish Peshmerga forces. The inhabitants of the region are almost 50% Kurdish. The possibility of this had been hanging over the head of the Kurdish forces for weeks. The underlying cause for the invasion is the existence of vast reserves of oil in the region. The spark that set of the explosion was a decision by the Kurdistan Regional Government in Northern Iraq (since 1970 officially an autonomous but not independent region in with its capital at Erbil/Hawler). On September 26 the government in Erbil held a referendum which showed that the vast majority of Kurds in Iraq prefer an independent state for their region.

Then all hell broke loose. The Iraqi army attacked the Pershmerga in Kirkuk with overwhelming force. Iran supported its long-t…

After earning doctorates in international relations and in Asian history, I went to live and work in eight different countries. Having settled in the Netherlands I decided to share my political observations with friends and colleagues. At my age, I feel I am too old to avoid controversy.