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Re: Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

I'm in the sign him or take the draft pick camp. We've spent all this time developing the guy, and now is the time to finally reap the rewards! If his shoulder is fixed for good, pay the man. But if finances limit us going forward, I'm totally okay with Homer playing for a contract next year and leading us to our second world series in two years with a sweet draft pick coming back afterwards.

Back to the original topic, all i can say is wow! It's been a long time since the Reds fast-tracked a guy like this. Homer being the only guy in memory and look how that turned out! Hopefully he can avoid the few mediocre, injury plagued seasons and gets to elite status immediately, but either way, this is awesome. The reds have been churning out solid homegrown pitchers like clockwork, where was this the past decade?

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Re: Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

Originally Posted by kaldaniels

For the trade Bailey in the offseason crowd, what is your plan for the rotation next year?

Cingrani takes one spot and Rogers, Reynolds, maybe Corcino and possibly a prospect acquired in the trade, or a veteran free agent on a short deal. Given Cueto's health it would be a really risky move to move Bailey but if the return was high enough....BUT...I'd only do a deal if the return was really high AND if they already had another arm to compete for that spot. Otherwise I'd hang on for the draft pick or if the team falters before the deadline, a deal then.

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Re: Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

Originally Posted by NeilHamburger

Cueto
Latos
Cingrani
Leake
Chapman

That's 2/5ths of a rotation with a question mark. Then there isn't much in AAA to reinforce, either. The Villareals and Reynolds haven't really panned out, although they didn't have much chance either. I think Bailey will almost definitely be needed and worth more than many offers could supply, especially since he'll likely bring a 2015 comp pick as well.

Also, it's hard to see where losing Choo, Arroyo and Bailey in one off season would be easy to overcome.

Re: Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

I have zero desire to go into next year with Cozart and Frazier as one side of the infield. Only way I see that changes is by trading one of Cueto, Bailey or Chapman. Latos is virtually untouchable.

If one of those guys could net you Profar or someone similar at 3rd or SS I do it. Preferably Bailey.

Agree with this.

There are only two infield prospects I'd trade Bailey for: Jurickson Profar or Xander Bogaerts
I might consider guys like Miguel Sano, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Francisco Lindor for value, but they don't really help us win anything next year, and therefore don't make much sense.

If the Reds can't get someone they can plug into the left side of the infield (cheaply) for the next five years, they should hang onto Bailey and take the picks.

I'd also definitely make qualifying offers to both Choo and Arroyo, without any real attempt to sign either longterm. If they take it, great, and if they don't, you have two extra draft picks.

If Arroyo takes his, you definitely trade Bailey, both for financial and positional reasons. If he doesn't, you still gauge what it would take to re-sign Bailey and Leake, independently. If Bailey is willing to do <20% more than Leake, sign Bailey and trade Leake. If he isn't, trade Bailey, and sign Leake for an extra 2-3 years.

Extend Latos no matter what. We need him + Cingrani + Stephenson and one of Cueto/Leake/Bailey to be our rotation foundation for the next 5 years.

For those seeking AAA depth/#6 starter for next year, you have Corcino and Sharky.

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Re: Stephenson promoted to Pensacola

For the trade Bailey in the offseason crowd, what is your plan for the rotation next year?

This is what I think will happen and I'm not there in the front office bringing Walt his morning meds and coffee, so it's an educated guess that all of us could make.

1.) Reds sit down with Bailey before free agency kicks off and offer him a 5 to7 year deal at market value as a #2 starter, they give him till the beginning of free agency. If he signs then Arroyo is out and Bailey is a Red for life more or less.

2.) If Bailey says I want to test the market, then you know he doesn't want to sign long term. You go to Bronson offer him a 2 to 3 year deal for around 30 million.

3.) Bailey is then presented to a # of teams at the winter season meetings and the Reds with the new protections in place for free agency are in a good place. If you get a deal worthy of a #2 starter who is entering his prime you deal him. If not you hold onto him and grab what ever team he signs with the following year their #1 draft pick.

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