NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed in play for Michigan State entering Selection Sunday

Updated Mar 18, 2019; Posted Mar 17, 2019

Mike Mulholland | MLive.com

Michigan State forward Xavier Tillman (23) and Ohio State forward Andre Wesson (24) anticipate a rebound during the second half of their Big Ten Tournament quarterfinal game at the United Center in Chicago on Friday, March 15, 2019. Michigan State won the game, 77-70. (Mike Mulholland | MLive.com)

Midway through last week, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi laid out a three-step path for Michigan State to move up to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament this weekend.

With Selection Sunday upon us, things are still going as planned for the Spartans to potentially end the day on the tournament's top line.

The Spartans will play Michigan on Sunday in the Big Ten tournament championship game (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

Should Michigan State win that game, it will have won both the regular season and tournament titles in the Big Ten, something Lunardi said on Wednesday should put them in consideration for a No. 1 seed.

“I think in this year’s Big Ten, if you win both titles, you at least have to get some serious discussion to get up to that top line,” Lunardi said.

Winning that game is the first thing Lunardi said had to happen for the Spartans to move up to a No. 1 seed.

The second was Kentucky losing in the SEC tournament semifinals. That happened on Saturday, when Tennessee came back in the second half to knock off the Wildcats (although Lunardi said the loss would preferably come to someone besides Tennessee, for Michigan State's purposes.)

Kentucky was widely seen as a likely No. 1 seed entering the week -- and the most likely of those seeds for Michigan State to jump to get to the top line.

The third is that the NCAA Tournament selection committee would need to fully factor in the results of the Big Ten tournament championship game, something Lunardi said he doesn’t believe always happens.

"I could see them as No. 5 overall regardless of whether they win or lose that championship game, depending on what happens elsewhere," Lunardi said.

As of Sunday morning, ESPN was projecting Michigan State as a No. 2 seed, opening in Columbus. USA Today also still had the Spartans as a No. 1 seed.

Duke likely locked up a No. 1 seed, and potentially the No. 1 overall seed, by winning the ACC tournament on Saturday. Virginia has also been seen as another likely No. 1 seed.

Gonzaga, North Carolina, Michigan State, Kentucky and Tennessee are all seen as contenders for the tournament’s final No. 1 seed. Besides Michigan State, Tennessee is the only other of those teams playing on Sunday.