Each release of early approval and favorable opinion is very good news for each competitor — but BMS has kept both the timing lead, and the wider indications lead, to date. It is — in short — ahead, in the heaviest burden cancers.

So, I expect that when Q3 2015 financial results are reported at month’s end by both companies, we will see that Opdivo® is well-ahead, and extending its lead, measured by global revenues through the first nine months of 2015.

But fret not — Merck’s second place finish will not really be all that disappointing — there is certainly at least a substantial share of the emerging $10 billion a year cancer med pie which Kenilworth will garner, into 2017 and beyond. BMS will just get more of it — that’s all.