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Bordeaux 2012 was not an immediate success on the secondary market. Between En Primeur release and this time last year – when the wines had become physical – the overall value of those within the Bordeaux 500 index had dropped by 2.6%. Trading activity was also low: the vintage had accounted for just 2.9% of Bordeaux trade.

Since becoming physical, the news has been more positive: the wines have made gains of 9.7% over one year, outperforming the Bordeaux 500 index which is up 0.7% over the same period. This means that the wines are now in positive territory – up 6.9% – since En Primeur release. Activity has also increased, with the vintage accounting for 9.5% of Bordeaux trade since February 2015.

Of the 48 wines from the vintage represented in the Bordeaux 500 Index – Latour and Forts Latour 2012 are yet to be released – 41 are in positive territory over one year. Pavie 2012, which carries a special silver label to celebrate its elevation to Grand Cru Classé A status, has made the greatest gains. Interestingly, Angelus 2012 (-6.5%) is among the seven fallers. It has failed to maintain the boost offered by its own commemorative bottle which was announced in May 2014.

Stéphanie de Boüard, managing director of Château Angelus, is battling to keep the estate’s wines away from investment funds and into consumers’ glasses.

“There was a lot of enthusiasm for our 2012 gold bottle but I don’t want it to become too speculative. I don’t want to see our wines end up in funds. You can’t block that from happening but you can try to control where the wine gets sold. I want to do everything I can to discourage speculation and am trying to prevent our wines from ending up in investment funds. It’s important that our wines are opened and enjoyed rather than traded. Above all wine is about pleasure.”

On the en primeur system:

“Both merchants and consumers are losing faith in en primeur. The whole point of the system is that the wines appreciate in value and if they don’t then there’s no reason for consumers to do it.

“Angelus has always gone up in value after release, which is one reason why it’s worth buying the wines en primeur,” she said.

Angelus 2005 was the biggest riser on Liv-ex in 2015, up 39.9% from £2,250 to £3,148 between December 2014 and November 2015. The estate has now edged into ‘first growth’ territory in terms of average pricing.

de Boüard puts the impressive price rise down to its perfect 100-point score from Robert Parker rather than the château’s promotion to Grand Cru Classé ‘A’ status.

Of the promotion, de Boüard said: “It’s a reward, but I think it’s also something the market has anticipated. It wasn’t given to us out of the blue, but it’s important to be humble because you never know what might happen.”

Burgundy wines may become even more difficult to find because of vine disease and smaller harvests from aging vineyards, according to a new report by the region’s wine council. While demand for Burgundy is strong, and prices for top wines remain high, overall harvest size is set to shrink – and not just due to the perennial threat of hail storms.

Burgundy vineyards have ‘aged and the yields reduced significantly since 2000 in response to a range of factors’, said Corinne Trarieux, of the BIVB Technical Centre. The first problem relates to degenerative vine diseases such as esca or fanleaf, which affect almost 14% of vineyards and ultimately kill many vines. More than 100,000 hectares of vines across France were lost to disease in 2014, French government figures show.

The age of vines is a problem, too. In Côte d’Or and Saône-et-Loire, 60% of the vines are over 30 years old. The average age of a Burgundy vineyard is 50 years, which causes lower yields. Turnover of vines is under 1%. The replanting of dead vines only and not the whole area – ‘complantation’ – is a factor in low production. Officials conclude that, in the face of climate change, growers need to be proactive in addressing the various issues.

Chateau Lafite Rothschild 2003 was the most traded wine by value on the London-based Liv-ex wine market in the week to Feb. 11, closely followed by Chateau Latour 2009, according to data from the exchange on its market blog.

The Lafite 2003 sold for 6,660 pounds ($9,659) per 12-bottle case and the Latour 2009 for 7,620 pounds, Liv-Ex reported. Other wines among the top five sold by value were Lafite 2012, Moet & Chandon Dom Perignon 2005 Champagne and Chateau Margaux 2005, according to Liv-ex data.

Bordeaux wines’ market share rose to 75.7 percent over the week to Feb. 11 from 70.4 percent a week earlier, while remaining below the January average of 78.6 percent, according to the data. Burgundy’s share slipped to 8.8 percent in the week to Feb. 11 from 9.6 percent the previous week, while holding above the January average of 6.2 percent.

“Focus turned towards higher value wines,” Liv-ex said on its blog. “The total value traded on the exchange increased, while volume dipped.” The most traded wine by volume in the week to Feb. 11 was Chateau Rieussec 2010 Sauternes, just ahead of the Dom Perignon 2005 Champagne.

The first release came a little earlier this month from Pontet-Canet which released a tranche of its 2006 vintage and late last week Montrose offered négociants some of its 100-point 2009, a parcel of ‘R’ de Rieussec has also been released albeit to less comment.

Both releases from the Pauillac and St Estèphe properties stimulated an increase in trading for the wines in question but not, it should be noted, for the prices asked for by the châteaux.

Pontet-Canet released its 2006 at €95 per bottle, or £850 a case and the 2009 Montrose was out at €240 p/b.

Although the wines did see quite a lot of trade by value on Liv-ex, they were for prices at a level substantially below those being asked for.

The Liv-ex 100 gained 1.1% in January to close on 240.87. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 50 index also moved up, increasing by 1.7% over the month to close on 269.17. The Liv-ex 100 has a history of moving up in the first quarter only to end the year down, as was the case in 2011, 2012 and 2013. 2014 saw a reversal of this pattern while 2015 looked altogether more confused. It is therefore too early to call whether this positive movement will be sustained.

The top movers within the index are all Left Bank Bordeaux names. Pape Clement 2010, amongst the cheapest 100-point Bordeaux wines, was the top riser. Two Haut Brion vintages also feature. Three of the five steepest fallers hail from Champagne. Last year, Champagne overtook Burgundy to become the third most traded region, and the Champagne 50 index reached a new high.

The second wines have been outperforming the First Growths, thanks in part to their ability to offer access to these big brands at lower price points. Petit Mouton in particular showed a strong performance: in 2015 it was the biggest riser of the Bordeaux 500 index, gaining 8.3%, no doubt benefitting from ‘brand Mouton Rothschild’ – number one in the Power 100 – of which it forms a part.

The table below shows the price movements of the ten most recent physical Petit Mouton vintages. Only one of the ten declined last year, with half gaining more than 8%. There appears to be little correlation between scores and performance: the 86-point 2003, “Lacking a bit of backbone but decent enough” (Neal Martin) gained 20.6% while the 90-point (Robert Parker) 2012 ran flat. Instead buyers are seeking wines with bottle age, and prices are being driven up by scarcity: older vintages are increasing in value as the wine is being drunk.

With this pattern evident, the lower priced recent vintages might present opportunities for those looking to hold onto the wines for several years. The 2003 is priced 61% above the 2012. A sign of what is to come?

Bordeaux châteaux making up the 1855 classification have copyrighted the term ‘1855’ in the European Union to deter others from misusing it in a wine context.

The move means that the term ‘1855’ in a wine context has the same legal protection in European Union courts as the term ‘Grand Cru Classé’, according to the Conseil des Grands Crus Classés en 1855.

Bordeaux producers have lobbied for protection for five years, but did so with greater urgency after seeing the problems surrounding the 1855.com online wine merchant, which changed its name to Heracles but was last year fined 200,000 euros for giving false information to the Paris stock exchange. The firm was plagued by complaints about undelivered Bordeaux en primeur wines.

The Bordeaux 1855 classification dates back to the Universal Exhibition held in Paris in the year 1855 at the request of Napoleon III.

With this copyright now achieved, only the 61 red wines and 26 sweet wine châteaux who received recognition in the ranking have the right to use it on their label.

The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 ended last year a tantalizing, frustrating 0.1% behind where it closed in 2014.

Nonetheless, it escaped the “considerable pressure” put on other financial markets in the second half of 2015 by the economic wobbles of Greater China.

As the accompanying chart shows, the FTSE 100 began to struggle post-May, ending the year down 4.9% and although the S&P 500 rallied in October it sank back before the end of the year to close around 0.73% below 2014. Gold declined steadily throughout the year (down 11.2%) while the bottom seemingly dropped out of the copper market.

Liv-ex commented: “Looking at an industrial commodity such as copper — considered by many as a proxy for China GDP growth — the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 was relatively robust, especially when considering copper hit a six-year low in 2015 and closed down around 27.9% by the year-end.”

For the first time since July 2010 the bid:offer ratio on Liv-ex (the total value of bids on the Liv-ex exchange divided by the total value of offers) has risen past 100%, a positive sign for fine wine prices as, historically, a bid:offer ratio of over 50% indicates an uptrend in the market – and price stability.

The last time the 100% ratio was seen was when the China-led bull run pushed Bordeaux prices to such terrifying heights.

But with the ‘Chinese-factor’ now largely removed from the market, what’s causing the current movement?

There are a number of factors helping the fine wine market at present. Liv-ex noted: “Recent currency movements have definitely been a driver behind trade on the exchange with the euro strengthening against sterling from November, helping to push the Liv-ex 50 index higher.

“The average bid:offer spread is also at a wide 20%. Historically a level below 15% has been an indicator of sustained price rises. In addition, anecdotal evidence suggests the majority of sellers still remain on the sidelines, having just returned from the seasonal holiday.”

Westgarth Wines is not registered as an investment adviser and not regulated by the Security and Exchange Commission or any state securities regulatory agency. Westgarth Wines does not offer financial advice on any asset other than wine. Investing in wine involves risk as prices fluctuate. We advise you to seek independent financial advice before investing in wine.