Livingstone and Johnson neck and neck

Wednesday 2 April 2008 13.43 EDT
First published on Wednesday 2 April 2008 13.43 EDT

Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson are locked in an extraordinarily tight race to be London's next mayor, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll of the city's voters. The battle for the biggest directly elected job in British politics could hardly be more dramatic, with Johnson holding a wafer-thin advantage over his Labour opponent.

The poll - the only one carried out by a national newspaper using established techniques - suggests Johnson could pull off a sensational victory on May 1 over the incumbent Livingstone, who won comfortably in 2000 and 2004.

But the outcome is far from decided.

Today's poll gives Johnson a two-point lead overall, at 51% to 49%, once second preferences have been allocated under London's alternative voting system. That is the narrowest possible margin of victory.

Johnson is the first choice of 42% of London voters, against 41% for Livingstone. Other candidates - including the Liberal Democrat former policeman Brian Paddick, on 10% - stand no chance of winning.

The scale of the Conservative fightback is clear. In 2004 the party's candidate won only 29% of first-choice votes.

Labour, which won 37% of primary votes in 2004, also appears to be doing well, despite a faltering campaign that has been drained and damaged by allegations of cronyism involving some of Livingstone's staff, including the suspension of his race advisor, Lee Jasper. Livingstone claims he is being outspent by Johnson, whose team said at the beginning of the campaign that it hoped to raise more than £1m from donors.

While the poll shows a narrow Johnson lead, Downing Street will be relieved that Livingstone is still in the fight.

The winner is likely to be determined by the second-choice votes of Liberal Democrats and minor parties such as the Greens and BNP, whose candidates have the backing of 7% of voters in total.

These second votes split very narrowly in favour of the Conservatives, which could be enough to hand Johnson victory.

Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they will use their second vote to support Johnson and only 30% will back Livingstone. That is a clear turnaround from the last London election, when Livingstone won both more first and second-choice votes than anyone else.

The close nature of the contest is clear from the response of voters asked which candidate they think has the best appetite for the job: 42% say Livingstone, 42% say Johnson.

The ICM poll was carried out from March 28 to April 1 using traditional telephone interviews. It reflects the views of a sample of 1,002 London voters who reflect the capital's demographic profile, including 29% non-white voters.

The result differs from results published earlier this week by the online research company YouGov, which gave Johnson a 10-point lead as the first choice among London voters.

Despite Labour's recent national political troubles, it is clear that Londoners retain a fondness for Livingstone and his eight-year record of office.

Most of the city's voters think that he has done a good job, even if they do not intend to back him this time. Overall, 51% of those questioned think Livingstone has been good for London, against 39% who say he has been bad.

Unsurprisingly, 95% of Livingstone supporters approve of his record. So do 23% of Johnson backers and 47% of Paddick supporters.

There is a clear split between non-white voters, 64% of whom say Livingstone has been a good mayor, and white voters at 46%. That suggests the key to a third Labour victory lies in getting the vote out in London's diverse inner-city constituencies, while Tory support is highest in outer London.

The personal nature of the campaign has had a clear impact. Livingstone has been criticised for the conduct of aides, and Johnson attacked as a womanising old Etonian who does not understand the needs of Londoners. Yesterday, Johnson was forced to reject an offer of electoral support from the British National Party, which had urged its supporters to give their second vote to the "Tory clown Johnson".

While Livingstone leads Johnson in the poll as the candidate with the best policy on many issues, including transport and the environment, he falls behind dramatically on questions of personal probity. Only 28% of all voters, and 64% of Labour voters, think Livingstone is the most honest candidate.

Support for Johnson is markedly lower among women than men, and he lags 11 points behind Livingstone, 35%-46%, as the candidate most likely to understand the needs of Londoners.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 London adults aged 18 and over from March 28 to April 1. Interviews were conducted across London and the results have been weighted to the profile of all London adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.