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CBO scores potential fallout from Affordable Care Act repeal

17th January 2017

Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., at podium, cheers health care workers to save the Affordable Care Act across the country outside LAC+USC Medical Center in Los Angeles, Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017. The rally was one of many being staged across the country in advance of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. Trump has promised to repeal and replace the health care law, and the Republican-controlled Senate on Thursday passed a measure taking the first steps to dismantle it. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)

Aaron van Dorn

New York office, The Lancet

The Congressional Budget Office has released a new report, at the request of Democrats in Congress, looking at the impact on insurance coverage and premium costs in the 2015 Affordable Care Act repeal bill that Republicans and conservative activists described as a “trial run” for the proposed repeal of the ACA. President Obama vetoed that bill, and the CBO scoring at the time did not look at coverage impacts.

According to the new report, the CBO estimates that the number of uninsured Americans would jump by 18 million people in the first year after repeal, with the number of uninsured spiking to 32 million by 2026. The cost of insurance premiums on the individual market are estimated to increase by 20% to 25% in the first year over projects based on current law, jump to 50% the following year and double by 2026 when the bill’s delayed Medicaid expansion repeal takes place. The CBO also estimates that repeal would leave about 10% of the nation’s population with no insurers participating in the nongroup market, leaving those without employer- or government-provided health care without options for insurance coverage.

House Majority Whip and Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalise took to Twitter to decry the report, stating, “CBO misses the point. Obamacare will be replaced with lower costs and more choices,” and “The CBO report assumes no Obamacare replacement. In reality, we will provide people with coverage that they want and can actually use.” However, Republicans in Congress have so far offered no details on the “replace” aspect of “repeal and replace.”