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STL: how much better? Topic

Hi - I had some $$ left towards the end of recruiting and a spot or two open, so I thought I'd blast out a bunch of AC Scouts targeting a couple positions where I didn't have immediate needs, but wanted to look to the future. Lo and behold I uncovered a STL. Will throw a RS on him, but my question:

How much (as a % guesstimate) is an STL likely to grow vs. the next best potential (like "lots of room to grow" or "develop over the next 4 years with us"?

Assuming you're comparing players with equal work ethic, that get equal starts, playing time, etc., probably around 20-30% more than the average 'lots of room to grow' player. ....but remember there is some variability within categories as well. I've seen high WE, even moderate WE 'lots of room to grow' players improve like STL players.... Anyhow, I'd find a way to make him a 4 year starter, and just have fun watching him improve!

This guy was a D3 QB that I recruited several seasons ago. He was a 4 year starter (NO Redshirt). His growth was crazy good. Better than any STL I have had. Of course, I never had an STL QB...so I'm not sure if the position matters.

His scouting report is below, as well as a link to his GUESS reports ratings at the beginning of each season.

Coach,

I just got back from my trip to see Louis Rivas. Overall, I'd say that he will end up in D-II.&nbsp;&nbsp;Here's a quick overview of what I saw:

&nbsp;&nbsp;He's got the potential to improve his game a lot over 4 years with us.

&nbsp;&nbsp;This kid has heart! He doesn't ever seem to stop wanting to get better.

&nbsp;&nbsp;I'm not sure he has the best feel for the game when he is out there calling plays.

&nbsp;&nbsp;Very accurate - probably because he has the mechanics.

&nbsp;&nbsp;His accuracy suffers a little because he has to strain to throw the ball down the field.

&nbsp;&nbsp;I hope he's durable, because he doesn't evade the rush very well.

Potential exists across a spectrum, rather than being five distinct values. That is to say, not all "a lot of room to grow" players are equal (potential-wise).

I don't know the actual values, but to demonstrate the point, imagine that there is some hidden potential number for each recruit. That number ranges from 1-100. Now, the potential reports might break down something like this:

80-100: Sky is the limit
60-79: A lot of room to grow
40-59: Average
20-39: About reached his potential
1-19: Tapped out

So then imagine two recruits, A and B, where Recruit A has a potential *number* of 79 and Recruit B has a potential number of 80. If you look at their reports, you'd see --

Recruit A = "A lot of room to grow"
Recruit B = "Sky is the limit"

Now, without knowing the actual number (as we do not), you might be inclined to believe that Recruit B will outgrow Recruit A - with all other things like WE and practice and games played/started and attribute values being exactly equal - but the reality is, in this scenario, both will grow roughly the same. The tough thing here is, you cannot know where a recruit's potential falls within each respective range. With that being the case, then you must make the assumption that all recruits of a given potential report are the same (potential-wise) and go from there.

One only finds out if their recruit is an upper-bound "A lot of room to grow", or lower-bound, after they are already on your team and you have a few seasons of growth from which to approximate their place within their given range.

The other thing to look at is the line (as used above) "This kid has heart! He doesn't ever seem to stop wanting to get better."
This would mean he will grow all 4 years he is with your team - regardless of potential. Other player reports such as "I think he could take things for granted and not work hard" etc would indicate he may grow for the first couple of years then flatten out. So look at the second line to see when you can get the most out of a player if they are allowed to play or start.

BTW: I recruited the above QB for an all wishbone attack, of which....I like to run it like a madman. However, after some "accidents" I found this guy could toss the pigskin like a crazy fool. He put up some huge numbers PASSING out of the wishbone. Its the only success I've ever really had throwing from the 'bone.