Dark horse rising: Non-controversial Naveen Patnaik could be a consensus leader if a Third Front emerges

Neerja Chowdhury

The 2014 mother of all battles is increasingly becoming a fight between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. And yet, as things move, the post-poll scenario may well become a toss-up between a Modi-led BJP and a Congress â€” and Left â€” supported Third Front, or a variant. As of now, the prospects of a Congress-led UPA-III do not look promising.

Clearly, the Third Front, or a banding together of six to eight prominent regional outfits which could become the centrepiece of a coalition, could emerge only after the elections and would hinge on the arithmetic of the 16th Lok Sabha. The parties that band together will have to notch up around 140 seats between them, with the Congress and Left parties bringing another 140 to the table. A Third Front government would need the support of the Congress, though weakened, and the country's grand old party may not be averse to it to keep Modi out of power.

It is Modi's polarising personality which may facilitate the formation of such a front. Many regional parties, particularly those in the Ganga belt, are dependent on minorities as their vote base and would do everything possible to avoid having to support a Modi-led government, if they can help it.

We have seen non-Congress and non-BJP-led national governments in the past â€” in 1977, 1989 and again in 1997 â€” but they proved to be highly unstable, given ego clashes of top leaders.

Even today leadership would be a sticky issue, but many of the players may be more pragmatic this time because they realise that an ascendant BJP under Modi could devour their vote base. Far-fetched though it may seem today, many predict the coming together of Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar in the 2015 Bihar elections to stop the Modi juggernaut. Nor would it be so inconceivable for both Samajwadi Party and Mayawati to lend their support to the same formation, as they have done with UPA-II.

There are many Third Front prime ministerial possibilities. Though Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar have been considered frontrunners, their graphs have been declining and they may tend to cancel each other out.

Jayalalithaa could become a PM player if she wins a sizeable chunk of seats â€” surveys give her around 28 Lok Sabha seats â€” and decides to stand with the Third Front, instead of supporting Modi, with whom she enjoys a rapport. Sharad Pawar, though in UPA today, could have wide acceptability, having nurtured â€” and funded over the years â€” across-party leaders. But Congress brass may be wary of his clout within the party and his potential to split or capture it.

In such a scenario, the man to watch is Naveen Patnaik, the most under-evaluated state satrap. The Odisha chief minister has stated time and again that he is not interested in moving to Delhi. A situation may come when he doesn't seek a natio-nal role but a national role seeks him.

He has many things going for him. The son of the doyen of Indian politics, Biju Patnaik, who had a relationship with every political party since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi, Naveen entered politics only after his father's death but went on to win three consecutive state elections. A CM for 13 years, who can neither speak nor read Oriya, his connect with the people has been quite remarkable. Besides, he enjoys a clean, "pro-poor" and yet industry-friendly image. India's middle class may take to the English-speaking Naveen more than they did H D Deve Gowda.

Naveen has demonstrated that he has political acumen as well as administrative skills. He effectively put down the rebellion in his party mounted by one-time aide Pyari Mohan Mahapatra, while he was abroad.

The rescue of nine lakh people in three days once the Phailin cyclone blew over would not have been possible had the CM not led from the front, having put into place an effective infrastructure to meet the challenge of disasters over the years.

Though a one time ally of the BJP, Naveen Patnaik's secular credentials are also not in question, having parted company with the NDA after the gruesome Kandhamal killings of Christians, even though minorities constitute a minuscule proportion of Odisha's population.

What would however qualify Naveen Patnaik most for the top job is that he is non-controversial and poses the least threat to other state leaders. The Congress may find him "safer" than other state satraps. Odisha could then open out for the Congress once again, if he moves to Delhi.

Indian politics is moving away from national leaders to state satraps. Many of them â€” in power for more than one consecutive term, be it Sheila Dikshit or Narendra Modi or Nitish Kumar or Shivraj Chouhan or Raman Singh, or Tarun Gogoi or Naveen Patnaik â€” may now try and claim a bigger national space, either as individuals, as Modi is doing, or as a collective, which a Third Front, given a chance, will attempt to do.

It goes without saying that the possibility of a Third Front would depend on the extent to which Modi can sustain the momentum he has generated so far.

They will never cross 272 and will require the support of either Congress and BJP. The probability of Congress supporting them is high, secular third front you know.So the govt will survive 1-2 years (past exerience).

The party leading this front will have a maximum of 30-35 seats (if SP/BSP perform very well in UP). So the PM would be in a much wrose position than MMS in terms of implementing policies.

Now lets talk about Naveen Patnaik. As I am from Orissa knows a bit of him.

Have a clean image like our current PM but under his leadership many scams happened in Orissa. He sacked the ministers involved in scams but leagally nothing happened to them.

Is a good adminstrator and gives goverment officers a free hand. So under his leadership Orissa has done well.

People vote him as they are scared of the past corrupt Congress govt. Congress does not have a reliable face in Orissa and it helped him.

His party BJD is a one man show.

One of the important thing to remember is election for Orissa state assembly will happen along with parliament election. So if BJP able to get around 20-25 MLAs (will be tough for BJP though) and BJD tally goes down to 60-65 from the current 100 odd, things might change dramatically.

If I know about Mr. Naveen patnaik then he will never want to lose power in Orissa. Which may happen if he moved to center. If BJD loses power in Orissa than they will be finished like JDS in karnataka.

When it comes to having a clean image, Naveen Patnaik even beats Modi in that regard. While not the most talked about, there has been a lot of development of Orissa under him. This is something I have seen happening in front of my eyes. A very good candidate for Third Front.

They will never cross 272 and will require the support of either Congress and BJP. The probability of Congress supporting them is high, secular third front you know.So the govt will survive 1-2 years (past exerience).

The party leading this front will have a maximum of 30-35 seats (if SP/BSP perform very well in UP). So the PM would be in a much wrose position than MMS in terms of implementing policies.

Now lets talk about Naveen Patnaik. As I am from Orissa knows a bit of him.

Have a clean image like our current PM but under his leadership many scams happened in Orissa. He sacked the ministers involved in scams but leagally nothing happened to them.

Is a good adminstrator and gives goverment officers a free hand. So under his leadership Orissa has done well.

People vote him as they are scared of the past corrupt Congress govt. Congress does not have a reliable face in Orissa and it helped him.

His party BJD is a one man show.

One of the important thing to remember is election for Orissa state assembly will happen along with parliament election. So if BJP able to get around 20-25 MLAs (will be tough for BJP though) and BJD tally goes down to 60-65 from the current 100 odd, things might change dramatically.

If I know about Mr. Naveen patnaik then he will never want to lose power in Orissa. Which may happen if he moved to center. If BJD loses power in Orissa than they will be finished like JDS in karnataka.

is there anyway bjd team up with nda - post poll?
Or they too secular?

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Depends upon siding with whom a stable government can be formed .Suppose BJP gets more then 200 then they have to support modi begin PM but if bjp gets something around 180 then they would demand PM other then MOdi .

Naveen patnaik can be the compromise candidate for sure. As everyone knows that even with entire 21 seats of orissa he can't upstage them(maya, mamta/nitish/jaya/mulayam etc). Also with his crendtials , he is perfect dilli-billi with right schooling etc, he is good enough for west as well.

[*]One of the important thing to remember is election for Orissa state assembly will happen along with parliament election. So if BJP able to get around 20-25 MLAs (will be tough for BJP though) and BJD tally goes down to 60-65 from the current 100 odd, things might change dramatically.
[*]If I know about Mr. Naveen patnaik then he will never want to lose power in Orissa. Which may happen if he moved to center. If BJD loses power in Orissa than they will be finished like JDS in karnataka.
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This maybe the right thing, it should not be that he looses both dilli and orissa. Though he maybe tempted to try his luck in delhi as congress in orissa is clueless and bjp listless.

When it comes to having a clean image, Naveen Patnaik even beats Modi in that regard. While not the most talked about, there has been a lot of development of Orissa under him. This is something I have seen happening in front of my eyes. A very good candidate for Third Front.

Though orissa has good share of mineral resources, the state is not that industrialized as setting up big industrial plants such as steel plants etc require center approvals which orissa might not have been able to lobby. But how is orissa in agriculture? It has fertiule soil with abundant water resources. Atleast it should have made good progress there. Blaming center for even agriculture iwill not help. If naveen has not done even for bettering agriculture in orissa, then its mainly the states failure when one has water.

Odish has two parts ....coastal and western . Coastal odisha which is middle ranked in terms of development ,but tribal dominated western Odisha seeing modernity only recently like other tribal region of central india .

A third front under the leadership of Naveen Patnaik is an near impossibility.
There can't be a third front without the support of congress from outside. And congress wouldn't support Mr Naveen Patnaik ,since its main opposition party in Odisha .

There could be two probable PM candidates for third front govt , Nitish or Jayalalita. Jayalalita's chances looks better.

A third front under the leadership of Naveen Patnaik is an near impossibility.
There can't be a third front without the support of congress from outside. And congress wouldn't support Mr Naveen Patnaik ,since its main opposition party in Odisha .

There could be two probable PM candidates for third front govt , Nitish or Jayalalita. Jayalalita's chances looks better.

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The problem with third front is that who ever tries their luck on the PM position, others will sure to pull him / her down... too many selfish people in there...

Jayalalitha most probably will side with Modi... they go along well with each other...

naveen patnaik has no national image so far or made an exemplary development in his state.look at odisha,still struggling to make an importance of its own.

neither did i ever hear naveen being interested in 3rd front.he is a good ally of bjp from long time.any movement from him towards 3rd front will eventually strengthen congress,his enemy

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Does Modi have any national image over Naveen? Sure, there aren't internet trolls going around posting praises about Naveen in all sorts of online fora, and that seems to be the only "national image" that he is lacking, that we should be concerned about? Whatever Modi has achieved, he has achieved in his state, and even Naveen has achieved a lot in his state, although less than Modi, but without the unnecessary and wanton bloodshed. He is also less dictatorial. The development and rise of Bhubaneswar is indeed exemplary, and puts Kolkata, Ranchi, Patna, and Raipur to shame.

Does Modi have any national image over Naveen? Sure, there aren't internet trolls going around posting praises about Naveen in all sorts of online fora, and that seems to be the only "national image" that he is lacking, that we should be concerned about? Whatever Modi has achieved, he has achieved in his state, and even Naveen has achieved a lot in his state, although less than Modi, but without the unnecessary and wanton bloodshed. He is also less dictatorial. The development and rise of Bhubaneswar is indeed exemplary, and puts Kolkata, Ranchi, Patna, and Raipur to shame.

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If image is a factor then yes Modi does have a national image now. Everyone across across India knows about him, thanks to p-seculars+electronic media.

Some are parachuted as leaders like RaGa, and also Navin. Both were born with special spoons. OK, ok, Navin has created a space himself now. But some like Modi rise from nowhere to the top.