Has a tit-for-tat spiral begun? After Europe launched tougher sanctions against Russia at the end of July, Russian President Vladimir Putin this week banned food imports from Europe. Some fear this might only be the beginning of a long-term Russian retaliation. Putin eventually could cut energy exports. Many Europeans would then suffer a hard winter.

That’s at least the theory. In practice, Europeans—and in particular Germans—aren’t too worried about Putin’s unquestionable energy power. Why? Here are three reasons:

1. Stopping energy exports would severely damage the Russian economy and destabilize Putin’s power. In 2012, the country exported almost $300 billion in oil and gas. These products accounted for about two-thirds of all Russian exports. The country needs the money. Half of the government’s budget depends on income from energy exports. Putin spends the money for everything from maintaining social welfare to keeping up its military strength. At the same time, as the rest of the economy is doing poorly, imports are an essential source of support.

2. Putin is more dependent on Europe than vice versa. Almost 80% of its oil and almost all of its gas exports go to Europe, especially to Germany. Even if more than one-third of Germany’s imports of oil and gas come from Russia, Germany depends less and less on that source of fuel because it has heavily expanded its renewable energy sector. In 2013, roughly 24% of Germany’s energy came from the sun, wind and water. Energy efficiency remains one of the most important topics on the political agenda. And even if Russia halts its oil exports immediately, there are enough other oil suppliers in the world to fill the supply void. It would be harder to do the same with gas, but importing more from countries like Norway and intensifying energy saving would help.

3. History may be instructive. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, the Soviet Union never stopped its energy exports. Money was more important than conviction — even for the Communist Party. And oil and gas play a more import role for exports in Putin’s Russia than they did in 1980.

Nevertheless, if Russia cuts its energy exports, prices for oil and gas would probably soar. That would be the price even Europeans had to pay. But free sanctions don’t exist.

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