Spring countdown: Cole Hamels and Co. begin free agent tango

The Daily Pitch will examine a spring training issue every day until major league camps open in earnest beginning Feb. 18. Today: The final countdown for the upcoming free agent class.

They've spent at least six years in major league training camps, but this spring will be like no other for a select group of baseball players.

For the first time in their lives, they will be eligible for free agency at the season's conclusion.

They must decide this spring whether to sign a long-term contract with their current team, halt negotiations and play the season out, or keep their options open all year with the weight of pending free agency on their shoulders.

"The beauty of free agency,'' said veteran agent John Boggs, who represents Philadelphia Phillies left-handed starter Cole Hamels, "is that it can be very beneficial if you're an elite free agent. But it can be a very, very confusing at the same time.''

Hamels, 28, is the biggest star in his prime in the upcoming free agent class. The group also includes outfielders B.J. Upton of the Rays, Andre Ethier of the Dodgers, Josh Hamilton of the Rangers, Michael Bourn of the Braves, Carlos Quentin of the Padres and Delmon Young of the Tigers; starters Matt Cain of the Giants, Zack Greinke of the Brewers, James Shields of the Rays, Anibal Sanchez of the Marlins and Gavin Floyd of the White Sox; second baseman Brandon Phillips of the Reds; catchers Yadier Molina of the Cardinals and Mike Napoli of the Rangers; and closer Joakim Soria of the Royals. The Mets hold a $16 million option for 2013 on third baseman David Wright

Some of these players have set deadlines at the outset or conclusion of spring training to strike a new deal; nonetheless, they will be asked constantly all spring about their intentions. It won't be just the news media, but their friends and family, too. Do they stay, or do they go? Is their club offering the right price, or are they willing to gamble like Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, and strike gold by hitting the free agent market?

Based on a survey of baseball executives, scouts and agents, Hamels may be in the best position. He has been a dominant starter his entire career with Philadelphia, thrived in the postseason, and is on a wealthy team that didn't blink paying a combined $44 million annually to fellow starters Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay.

Hamels, despite pitching in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly ballparks, is 74-54 with a 3.39 ERA since making his major league debut in 2006, including a 2.92 ERA and 405 strikeouts the last two years. He also has a 7-4 record with a 3.09 ERA in 13 playoff starts, along with the MVP honors of the 2008 World Series and NLCS.

The Phillies would like to sign Hamels to the same five-year, $85 million deal that Angels ace Jered Weaver received last August. Sorry, just not happening. Weaver signed a hugely discounted deal to stay home, and was more than a year away from free agency. If you want a comparable deal, it may Johan Santana's six-year, $137.5 million contract extension in 2008 with the Mets. It's no coincidence that the top five-paid pitchers are left-handers like Hamels. CC Sabathia is the highest-paid pitcher, signing a seven-year, $161 million contract from the Yankees in 2008 that he turned into an eight-year, $191 million deal.

The Phillies aren't expected to go longer than five years, but if they don't offer a six- or seven-year deal, may be forced to pay at least $125 million. If the Phillies blink, the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs likely will be waiting this winter. The Phillies and Boggs have had preliminary talks, and are expected to have serious negotiations this spring.

"We've let Cole know we're anxious to have him stay here,'' Phillies president David Montgomery told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "You try to minimize risk by not going longer than necessary. And a player is looking for as much security as he can get. It's an equation that takes time to hopefully get worked out.

"You'd like to go as short as you possibly can. At the same time, every once in a while, you have a circumstance where we're not going to get it done at two or three years.''

The Rays have had no talks with Upton and his representative Larry Reynolds, perhaps realizing they simply may not afford him. Upton plays Gold Glove defense, with power, speed and also has postseason experience. He's certainly capable of a 30-30 season. If Carl Crawford can get $142 million from the Red Sox, and Jayson Werth $126 million from the Nationals, Upton should be in the same neighborhood. The Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Marlins all figure to be strong suitors.

Hamilton, 31, may be the most intriguing case. He is a superstar who can dominate the game when healthy, but he has missed 143 games the last three years. Still, despite his array of injuries and illnesses, he is a four-time All-Star with an American League MVP award, and has averaged 25 homers and 95 RBI the last four years.

Considering that Pujols and Fielder are making about $24 million annually with their new contracts, it stands to reason that Hamilton can request the same annual salary, just for fewer years. If he stays healthy, and he doesn't have any further issues with alcohol or drugs, it would be no surprise if someone steps up with a five-year deal for about $125 million. He has the marketability, athleticism and power. He just needs to stay healthy, and, of course, clean.

The Rangers halted contract talks after Hamilton admitted to a recent drinking escapade at a Dallas-area restaurant, which required further drug tests and a trip to New York to see doctors with MLB and union officials. Rangers GM Jon Daniels says they will likely resume talks in spring training.

There is plenty of other intriguing drama involving the free agent class.

Cain says he will take a hometown discount to remain with the Giants, but just how big of a discount? Is Molina more apt to leave St. Louis now that his best friend, Pujols, is gone? Will Wright be traded before he sniffs free agency? Could Soria be apprehensive of the free agent market considering the vulnerability of last winter's closer market? Will the Dodgers' sale affect Ethier? Is Greinke open to the possibility of exploring big-market living, or would just as soon stay in Milwaukee?

And, while there's a solid first-time free agent class, there are plenty of veterans who can still make an impact on the marketplace. They include:

Outfielders Torii Hunter of the Angels, Shane Victorino of the Phillies and Melky Cabrera of the Giants; outfielder/first baseman Carlos Lee of the Astros; starters Dan Haren of the Angels, Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse of the Cardinals and Shaun Marcum and Randy Wolf of the Brewers and Carl Pavano of the Twins; and closers Mariano Rivera of the Yankees, Jose Valverde of the Tigers, Ryan Madson of the Reds, Francisco Cordero of the Blue Jays and Francisco Rodriguez of the Brewers.

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