Growth Rate Soars In Kane County

June 13, 1988|By Steve Johnson.

What most Chicagoans know of Kane County could probably fit on the handle of a rolling pin: rural, peaceful, somewhere to the west.

But a new population study indicates that quiet Kane may be a county on a demographic rampage, one that appears well on its way toward achieving the kind of tops-in-the-region growth rates that will make it hard not to know.

Between the 1980 federal census and July, 1986, Du Page, McHenry, Lake and Kane Counties all posted population increases of between 8 and 10.4 percent, with Du Page leading the way and Kane bringing up the rear, according to U.S. Bureau of the Census statistics and estimates.

From then until the end of last year, though, Kane, with 3.8 percent growth, has doubled the growth rates of Du Page County, with 1.9 percent, and Lake County, with 1.8 percent, says a population estimate released last week by Donnelly Marketing Information Services, a division of the Dun & Bradstreet Corp. Kane even appears to be leaving McHenry, and its 2.2 percent growth rate over that 18-month span, in the dust.

Will County grew 1.4 percent over that period, bringing its growth rate closer to that of its suburban Chicago neighbors, while Cook County continued to gain residents slowly, posting a 0.1 percent increase in that time, the study says.

Lake County, Ind., and Kenosha County, Wis., two areas that have been hit hard by a decline in blue-collar jobs, continued to lose residents. The study, however, did not break down the statistics any further than the county level. The Donnelly estimates, which are used by advertising agencies and marketing research firms, use the census bureau`s numbers and then factor in information on births and deaths as well as Internal Revenue Service data on migration, said John M. Anderson, editor of the economic analysis department of Dun & Bradstreet.

``We`ve been saying for some time that Kane County growth was picking up,`` said Max Dieber, director of Research Services for the Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission. ``The magnitude surprised me a little bit, but it`s not really inconsistent with what we`ve been predicting.``

In general, growth in Du Page and northwest Cook is slowing, he said, while Kane and central Lake appear to be picking up speed.

By 2010, according to a forecast released early this year by the Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission, Aurora, primarily in Kane County, may well surpass shrinking Rockford as the state`s 2d-largest city, with a population of 166,471. That`s almost double Aurora`s 1986 population, estimated by the census bureau at about 85,000.

``It`s happening for several reasons,`` said Christopher Aiston, Kane`s assistant director of planning, ``partly the quality of life here, partly the fact that there`s a nice combination of rural lifestyle and some definite municipal centers.``

About 90 percent of the county`s residents live in the east, along the Fox River, he said, but the center of the county is growing, too, especially in Campton and Blackberry Townships.

``The key issue is growth management,`` he said. Neighboring Du Page County, which has grown by leaps and bounds since 1970, is ``somewhat of a living lab to the east that we can watch and see what`s happening,

particularly in the areas of urban sprawl and transportation,`` Aiston said.

After posting a 2.9 percent population increase between 1980 and July, 1986, the Donnelly study says, the six-county region grew by 0.6 percent through the end of 1987-a slight slowdown in the overall growth rate.