Northern Ireland Assembly election 2003

In
November 2003, elections were held for Northern Ireland’s devolved
assembly at Stormont. The Northern Ireland Assembly had been suspended by
Northern Ireland Minister Paul Murphy following allegations that Sinn Fein had
bugged offices at Stormont.

The
November elections used proportional
representation (pr). The result gives some idea as to why people fear the
introduction of pr for Britain’s national elections.

Northern Ireland has a unique
history in British politics. It has used pr for
decades – a consequence of the problems in the province over the years since
the “Troubles”. Proportional representation was introduced in order to get a
fairer representation of Catholics onto local councils etc. Therefore, the use
of pr, though a novelty in Wales and Scotland
when it was first used for the devolutionary elections, has been used on many
occasions in Northern Ireland and is seen to be part of the political furniture.

Historically,
Northern Ireland has seen two major moderate parties and two major ‘extreme’
parties.

Protestants:
the Protestants have tended to be represented by the moderate UUP (Ulster
Unionist Party) currently led by David Trimble. This party has engaged in
dialogue with Sinn Fein and is seen as a moderating influence on the Protestant
community in the province. Trimble’s position as head of the UUP was confirmed
in March 2004.

Historically,
in recent years, the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) has played second fiddle to
the UUP. The DUP is a hard-line Protestant party that believes that Sinn Fein is
a political front for the IRA and its leader, Ian Paisley, has stated time and
again that he would have no dialogue with Sinn Fein.

Catholics:
The moderate Catholic party has been the SDLP (Social Democratic and Labour
Party). The party seen as ‘extreme’ is Sinn Fein. The latter has never
denied being the political voice of the IRA and its mere connection with the IRA
is enough for many Unionist to condemn it.

Historically,
the SDLP has done well in provincial elections and Sinn Fein has played second
fiddle to it.

The
2003 result using proportional representation make for interesting reading:

%
votes 2003

Number
of seats

+
or – 1998*

DUP

25.6

30

+
7.5%

UUP

22.6

27

-
1

SDLP

17

18

-
6

SF

24

24

+
6

Other
Unionist

2.5

2

-
3

Alliance

3.6

4

0

Others

4.7

1

-
2

*
= Last Assembly election

The
two parties considered to be moderate have lost out. The two ‘extreme’
parties have clearly won.

This
is the perceived problem:

Using
proportional representation, the people of Northern Ireland will have an
assembly (should it ever sit as the DUP have already refused to sit with Sinn
Fein) that represents their beliefs in a far more representative way than FPTP
. But it has also allowed into a more powerful position two extreme political
parties in Northern Ireland and a political stand-off may occur with the DUP
refusing to have any part in an assembly that allows in “reprobates”
(Paisley). However, the DUP wants devolved power for Northern Ireland again, and
has publically stated this – so will it be forced by its own rhetoric to sit
down with Sinn Fein? A devolved assembly will only work with an input from the 2
biggest parties – without it, Stormont will be suspended again, if it ever
gets off the ground at all.

Compared
to their position in the 2001
national election, the DUP gained 4% more of the votes cast in November
2003. The more moderate UUP dropped by 4%. The two main Catholic parties (SDLP
and Sinn Fein) held their support. Does this mean that Unionist support in
Northern Ireland is getting more hard line? What might this mean for the Good
Friday Agreement?

Though
Sinn Fein beat the SDLP in 2001, their winning MP’s did not take a seat in the
House of Commons as they refused to swear
allegiance to the Crown as all new MP’s have to. That, by itself, was enough
to irk the DUP. However, Sinn Fein was willing to develop the Good Friday
Agreement whereas the DUP want to scupper it in its entirety.

Will
a new assembly start in Stormont? Without the largest Protestant party, that
would seem unlikely, as any decision that was taken by an assembly that lacked
the DUP would be devoid credibility in the eyes of the Protestant community in
Northern Ireland.