Voters Really Are Stupid

A new poll by InsiderAdvantage suggests that more voters in the district — made up of DeKalb County and parts of Gwinnett and Rockdale counties — are making up their minds about which candidate they want to send to Congress. Among the undecided, the poll shows that McKinney has picked up more support than Johnson, although it shows him in the lead.

Unless the support for Johnson is weak, then his 49% should remain the same. I don’t see McKinney siphoning off any of his support meaning that she has to win all of the undecideds in order to win the run-off.

Hank Johnson only has to win 1% of the undecideds.

To use a baseball analogy, Hank’s magic number is 1 and Cynthia’s is 17.

I think it is unfair to say that the 4th District voters are stupid. In the past 3 Democratic Primaries, the most McKinney has ever gotten was 50.8% of the vote. She got 42% in 2002 and 47% this year.

It is very had to knock off an incumbent Congressperson.

Despite how you spin the way the undecideds are breaking, did anyone really ever believe that McKinney would only have 21% of the vote. It is no surprise, that the polling is getting narrower. My prediction is that Johnson will win with about 55% of the vote.