February 28, 2017

Corporate world divided over GOP’s border tax; Trump moves towards repeal of Obama EPA water rule; Two House conservatives would vote against draft Obamacare repeal bill; U.S. GDP Increased 1.9% in Final Quarter of 2016; U.S. Home Prices Grew at Fastest Rate in 2.5 Years in December; Consumer Confidence Hits 114.8 in February, a 15-year-high.

Policy Watch

Corporate world divided over GOP’s border tax. Corporate America is deeply divided over the proposal from House Republicans to tax imports and exempt exports, also known as the “border tax. Companies across the board have agreed that a need exists for reform legislation that lowers tax rates for businesses. Yet the border-tax proposal by the House GOP is now pitting the nation’s largest companies against each other. On the on side, large exporters such as Boeing and General Electric, and pharmaceutical companies like Merck and Pfizer, support the tax proposal. Retail giants, such as Wal-Mart, Target and Best Buy, oppose the proposal as they are large importers. Both supporters and opponents of the border-adjustment proposal have met with President Trump to share their views as the White House and congressional Republicans work toward the goal of passing tax reform legislation by August. After meeting with manufacturers, Trump told Reuters that he thought the border-adjustment tax could lead to an increase in U.S. jobs. Opponents of the border tax believe that they tax increase would be passed onto customers in the form of higher prices, particularly in the retail and oil-refining industries. [The Hill]

Trump moves towards repeal of Obama EPA water rule. President Trump will order the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Tuesday to formally review former President Barack Obama’s Clean Water Rule, beginning the process of eliminating or significantly changing the rule. The executive order is the first step toward repealing a regulation that’s been a top target for Republicans and business interests. The order would not rescind the waterways rule, because that has to be done through a formal regulatory process. Instead, it will instruct the EPA and Army Corps of Engineers to formally reconsider the rule, which could result in its repeal or a significant rewrite. [The Hill]

Two House conservatives would vote against draft Obamacare repeal bill. Two prominent House conservatives said late on Monday that they would vote against a draft of the Republican Obamacare repeal bill that was leaked last week, posing a serious roadblock to the GOP’s efforts to dismantle the Affordable Care Act. The two House Republicans voicing their opposition were Rep. Mark Meadows and Rep. Mark Walker. The comments came as top House Republicans are preparing to present legislation to repeal major portions of Obamacare and are struggling to bridge divisions within their own party. Meadows told CNN that the refundable tax credits included in the draft of the bill, “contains what increasingly appears to be a new health insurance entitlement with a Republican stamp on it.” A draft of the House Republican bill to repeal Obamacare that leaked last week would replace the law’s subsidies with less generous tax credits, increase the amount insurers could charge older Americans and more or less eliminate Medicaid. The refundable tax credit would be given based on age and range from $2000 to those under 30 to $4000 for those between ages 60 and 64. [CNN]

Economic Indicators & News

U.S. GDP Increased 1.9% in Final Quarter of 2016. According to the Commerce Department on Tuesday, gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the economy, advanced at an inflation-and seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2016. The rate of growth was unchanged from the initially reported figure. U.S consumer spending was stronger than initially expected in the final months of 2016. Personal consumption expenditures were revised to a growth rate of 3%. However, downward revisions for business investment and government spending leveled out the upward revision to consumer spending. The 1.9% growth rate marks a deceleration compared to the third quarter’s 3.5% pace, which had been the strongest reading in two years. [WSJ]

U.S. Home Prices Grew at Fastest Rate in 2.5 Years in December. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which cover the entire nation, rose 5.8% in the 12 months ended in December, the fastest rate in 2.5 years. The 5.8% growth rate ended in December is up compared to the 5.6% year-over-year increase reported in November. The 10-city index increased 4.9% over the year, up from 4.4% in November, and the 20-city index gained 5.6% year-over-year, compared to a 5.2% increase in November. The most popular markets in the country are concentrated in the northwest, including Seattle and Portland, cities that experienced 10.8% and 10% year-over-year gains, respectively. Denver also had an 8.9% annual increase in home prices. Home prices hit a new record in September and have continued climbing by more than 5% year-over-year since then, driven by strong demand a shortage of supply of homes for sale. [WSJ]

Consumer Confidence Hits 114.8 in February, a 15-year-high. Based on a survey taken by the Conference Board, Americans are the most confident in the U.S. economy in 15 years. The survey of consumer confidence rose to 114.8 in February from 111.6 in January, the highest level since July 2001. “Expectations improved regarding the short-term outlook for business, and to a lesser degree jobs and income prospects. Overall, consumers expect the economy to continue expanding in the months ahead,” Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said in a statement. The percentage of Americans who said jobs are “hard to get” fell to an eight-year low of 20.3% in February. The present situation index, which measures how Americans fell now, rose to 133.4 from 133.0, while the expectations index looking six months ahead increased to 102.4 from 99.3 last month. [MarketWatch, CNBC]

PENN WHARTON PPIRESOURCE SPOTLIGHT:

<h3>Congressional Budget Office</h3><p><img width="180" height="180" alt="" src="/live/image/gid/4/width/180/height/180/380_cbo-logo.rev.1406822035.jpg" class="lw_image lw_image380 lw_align_right" data-max-w="180" data-max-h="180"/>Since its founding in 1974, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has produced independent analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process.</p><p> The agency is strictly nonpartisan and conducts objective, impartial analysis, which is evident in each of the dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates that its economists and policy analysts produce each year. CBO does not make policy recommendations, and each report and cost estimate discloses the agency’s assumptions and methodologies. <strong>CBO provides budgetary and economic information in a variety of ways and at various points in the legislative process.</strong> Products include baseline budget projections and economic forecasts, analysis of the President’s budget, cost estimates, analysis of federal mandates, working papers, and more.</p><p> Quick link to Products page: <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/about/our-products" target="_blank">http://www.cbo.gov/about/our-products</a></p><p> Quick link to Topics: <a href="http://www.cbo.gov/topics" target="_blank">http://www.cbo.gov/topics</a></p><p>See all <a href="/data-resources/">data and resources</a> »</p>

<h3>National Center for Education Statistics</h3><p><strong><img width="400" height="80" alt="" src="/live/image/gid/4/width/400/height/80/479_nces.rev.1407787656.jpg" class="lw_image lw_image479 lw_align_right" data-max-w="400" data-max-h="80"/>The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education in the U.S. and other nations.</strong> NCES is located within the U.S. Department of Education and the Institute of Education Sciences. NCES has an extensive Statistical Standards Program that consults and advises on methodological and statistical aspects involved in the design, collection, and analysis of data collections in the Center. To learn more about the NCES, <a href="http://nces.ed.gov/about/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p> ﻿Quick link to NCES Data Tools: <a href="http://nces.ed.gov/datatools/index.asp?DataToolSectionID=4" target="_blank">http://nces.ed.gov/datatools/index.asp?DataToolSectionID=4</a></p><p> Quick link to Quick Tables and Figures: <a href="http://nces.ed.gov/quicktables/" target="_blank">http://nces.ed.gov/quicktables/</a></p><p> Quick link to NCES Fast Facts (Note: The primary purpose of the Fast Facts website is to provide users with concise information on a range of educational issues, from early childhood to adult learning.): <a href="http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/" target="_blank">http://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/#</a></p><p>See all <a href="/data-resources/">data and resources</a> »</p>

<h3>National Bureau of Economic Research (Public Use Data Archive)</h3><p><img width="180" height="43" alt="" src="/live/image/gid/4/width/180/height/43/478_nber.rev.1407530465.jpg" class="lw_image lw_image478 lw_align_right" data-max-w="329" data-max-h="79"/>Founded in 1920, the <strong>National Bureau of Economic Research</strong> is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. The NBER is committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community.</p><p> Quick Link to <strong>Public Use Data Archive</strong>: <a href="http://www.nber.org/data/" target="_blank">http://www.nber.org/data/</a></p><p>See all <a href="/data-resources/">data and resources</a> »</p>

<h3>Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED®)</h3><p><strong><img width="180" height="79" alt="" src="/live/image/gid/4/width/180/height/79/481_fred-logo.rev.1407788243.jpg" class="lw_image lw_image481 lw_align_right" data-max-w="222" data-max-h="97"/>An online database consisting of more than 72,000 economic data time series from 54 national, international, public, and private sources.</strong> FRED®, created and maintained by Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, goes far beyond simply providing data: It combines data with a powerful mix of tools that help the user understand, interact with, display, and disseminate the data.</p><p> Quick link to data page: <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/tags/series" target="_blank">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/tags/series</a></p><p>See all <a href="/data-resources/">data and resources</a> »</p>

<h3>The Penn World Table</h3><p> The Penn World Table provides purchasing power parity and national income accounts converted to international prices for 189 countries/territories for some or all of the years 1950-2010.</p><p><a href="https://pwt.sas.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt71/pwt71_form.php" target="_blank">Quick link.</a> </p><p>See all <a href="/data-resources/">data and resources</a> »</p>