A “media availability” with Edmonton Oilers coach Dallas Eakins is always an interesting ride, and Thursday’s 25-minute marathon was no exception. As you might surmise, I’ve been attentive to Eakins’ occasional remarks on analytics, and took particular note in his opening comments about Tuesday’s rout of the Oilers by the Toronto Maple Leafs:

It is hard to balance it. Sometimes things match up and sometimes they don’t. I think the numbers … you’re talking about the analytics part of it? I just use them as another tool. We’ve had games where we’re just getting killed numbers-wise, but I still like the match-up. Last game I thought Gagner’s line was doing a great job against Kadri’s line. The numbers matched up, but Kadri’s line won them the game. So it’s a fine balance.

The analytics part of it, Toronto’s a great team to look at, the analytics on their team isn’t great but they’re winning hockey games and that’s all that matters at the end of the night. That’s all that matters. The analytical guys will tell you that over the long haul, it will eventually go against them. But maybe if you’ve got great special teams or your goalie’s hot, you can still win hockey games.

For me the analytical part is another tool to look at, and for me it’s important to be always be looking at everything. I take in what the guy tells me at the gas station sometimes.

I’m not sure how reassuring I find that last comment; I guess it’s a sign of open-mindedness. Hopefully the guy at the gas station is telling the coach that it might not be the greatest idea to match up Nail Yakupov against Alex Ovechkin or Phil Kessel, as Eakins has done the past two home games.

The middle paragraph indicates that Eakins does have a handle on what analytics can and can’t provide. It’s true that over the long haul, the percentages are bound to catch up with Toronto, at least to a degree; but on the individual game level all bets are off. Shot quality may be thought to regress to the mean over time, but it varies significantly from game to game, and from shot to shot.

One of the problems with almost all hockey metrics is that the sequential input — at what I call the “quantum level” — consists of just 1’s and 0’s. A shot is a shot, or it isn’t. Same with a scoring chance, or a Corsi, or whatever else one is tracking. Nothing to differentiate a half-dollar chance from a two-bit one or a ten-cent one. And little details like superior (or inferior) finishing ability and goaltending are way out in the margins, but real enough factors in a given moment.

Eakins may say “the numbers matched up” in Tuesday night’s key match-up, and its true that the Oilers players in question held their own and then some in raw numbers of shots metrics or scoring chances, but there are chances and then there are Chances. The Oilers had far too few and allowed far too many of the ten-bell type. Especially in the first two periods when the game was still on the line, as Cult of Hockey colleague David Staples explored here.

Some nights — and Tuesday was one of them — underlying stats are all but irrelevant. Dallas Eakins may have liked the match-ups and the numbers, but he came across like a football coach talking about having 35 minutes of possession on a night his team allowed a couple of one-play touchdown drives, a long punt return, and a pick six. Who cares what happened in the rest of the game? Your team got whipped by big plays and breakdowns. (And please, Kavis, don’t talk about those 250 passing yards in the fourth quarter when your team was down by 30 and the other guys backed off while using bench players.)

About those breakdowns, let’s have a quick look at a screen grab from each of the first three goals:

1. Anton Belov (the LEFT defenceman) pinches recklessly at the far boards, while all three Oilers forwards (top to bottom Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle, Nail Yakupov) watch the puck, seemingly unaware of the impending danger and certainly paying no mind to the danger man, Phil Kessel (circled). At this point Kessel is further from Oilers’ net than Yakupov, but he’s recognizing the opportunity that is developing; by the time Yakupov reacts, Kessel is long gone, and all the hard skating and full-length diving in the world can’t prevent the Leafs sniper from a ten-bell opportunity and an easy finish. It also didn’t help that Justin Schultz (not shown) would overcommit on the 2-on-1 but fail to prevent Nazem Kadri’s pass to the wide-open Kessel. 68 seconds in, Oilers were behind to stay.

2. Four Oilers (L-R Eberle, Gagner, Yakupov, J.Schultz) are simultaneously trapped behind the Leafs goal line, with the entire Toronto team behind them and in position to break. The danger man, Kessel (circled again) is busting free into the wide open spaces while directly behind him James Van Riemsdyk is positioned to win a rink-length race with Gagner and finish the play unmolested from point-blank range. Again the sequence would be further complicated by the remaining Oilers defenceman (Belov this time) making a meal of the 2-on-1.

Eakins said this was the one goal that didn’t bother him, and I’m somewhat in agreement with him. The Oilers had just missed a glorious chance in which Schultz dinged the goal post from close range and crashed into the boards. The problem, though, is the lack of awareness from any of the three forwards to cover off for the attacking defender.

3. All too reminscent of a line dance from seasons past. Four Oilers (from L-R Gagner, Eberle, Yakupov, and Jeff Petry) are trapped above the top of the circles — more correctly, the LEFT circle — leaving a lone defender (Denis Grebeshkov) down low against three Leafs attackers. The danger man, Kessel (remember him?) has once again been left completely to his own devices, ready to pounce on the rebound off the backboards and, unmolested by checkers, thread the needle to snipe the third Toronto tally. Petry, the RIGHT defenceman, has been beaten far too easily at the far boards, but the lack of communication among the three forwards is the second critical error.

I don’t care what the numbers say, when (the same) three forwards plus a defenceman get caught behind the puck time and again, outnumbered by opportunists like Kessel, Kadri, and Van Riemsdyk, that’s neither a favourable match-up nor a winning combination. It sure wasn’t on Tuesday night.

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