No One Knows On Draft Day Which Quarterback Is Best

Josh Allen is tall. He is also relatively fast and appears to be smart. But he didn't play football all that well in college. So should he still be a top pick in the draft? (Photo by Steve Conner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)(Photo by Steve Conner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Cleveland Browns have the first pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, and it's widely believed the Browns will select a quarterback. What we don't know — on Thursday morning — is which one the Browns will select.

At this point, there is significant disagreement on the identity of the top prospects.

Obviously these are not the only lists. But these two illustrate how reasonable people can clearly differ on the future prospects of these quarterbacks. Yes, the same six names appear on each list. However, except for Rosen — who is third in both rankings — the other quarterbacks are all arranged differently.

What factors determine where a quarterback is selected in the NFL draft?

How do those factors relate to future NFL performance?

The most obvious factor one would think NFL executives would consider is performance on the field. This year that performance seems to tell a very clear story: Mayfield was great last year, and Allen, relative to other prospects, was awful. So if the Browns were to consider college performance above all, Mayfield would be taken with the first pick, and Allen would definitely not be in the conversation.

Fortunately for Allen, though, the data says that where a quarterback is selected is about much more than what a prospect did playing football. Measurements taken at the combine — like height, speed and performance on the Wonderlic test — also matter.

When we consider combine factors, Allen looks much, much better. Rudolph's Wonderlic score has not been leaked, but of the other five prospects listed above, Allen scored much higher than anyone else. So if we are to believe the Wonderlic test, Allen is the smartest prospect.

All of this tells a clear story. Allen appears to be bigger, faster and smarter than the other top players. So who cares if he didn't actually play football all that well?

One might think actual performance matters more in evaluating quarterbacks than some measurements taken at the NFL combine. But our study (and this remains the case with updated numbers) indicated that combine factors actually have a bigger impact on where a quarterback is selected than anything he did playing football. In other words, all of Mayfield's stats might not matter as much as Allen's height, speed and Wonderlic score.

So combine factors can get your name called quicker this week. Does any of this predict how well a quarterback plays in the NFL?

Unfortunately for the Browns — and all of us who want to second-guess the Browns — none of this stuff really predicts future performance. And that shouldn't be surprising. Think about what the Browns are trying to do. All they know about these quarterbacks is what they saw in college and at the combine. In college, these quarterbacks, relative to what we will see in the NFL, had different linemen blocking, handed the ball to running backs, threw to different receivers and had different coaches calling the plays. The defenses the quarterbacks faced were also quite different from what they will see in the NFL.

To solve that problem, NFL teams try to measure factors like height, speed and intelligence. But the Wonderlic test is not about football, and it shouldn't be surprising to learn that a couple of inches of height or a slightly faster 40-yard dash fails to predict how a quarterback will ultimately perform in the NFL. We all can think of shorter quarterbacks who have succeeded and taller quarterbacks who completely failed. The same story can also be told about quarterbacks who run fast and those who run slow.

In the end, it doesn't appear that anything NFL teams look at does a good job predicting future performance. In a forthcoming study, I observe that there isn't much of a correlation between where an NFL quarterback is selected in the draft and how he performs. Yes, quarterbacks selected earlier get more playing time. But draft position and per-play performance aren't really related.

Again, that shouldn't be surprising. The list of quarterbacks selected in the first round who failed is very long. Likewise, teams have won Super Bowls with quarterbacks many teams passed on (like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Kurt Warner).

All of this suggests that maybe the Browns aren't crazy to consider taking two quarterbacks in the first round. Since the best they can do is guess, maybe guessing twice is the best way to go.

Of course, that advice is just a guess. In the end, it doesn't seem like the data is going to answer this question for the Browns.

That doesn't mean the Browns can't get this right. It just means they won't know they are right until the quarterback — or quarterbacks — takes the field and plays.

I am a professor of economics at Southern Utah University who has spent the last two decades researching sports and economics. I am the lead author of "The Wages of Wins" (Stanford Press, 2006) and "Stumbling on Wins" (Financial Times Press, 2010). In addition, I am the so...