As North Korea Severs Ties, Is Violence Near?

In the week since investigators announced that the recently sunk
South Korean ship had been attacked by a North
Korean torpedo, the tension on
the Korean peninsula has only grown, reportedly shaking global markets. As regional leaders try to deter
North Korean aggression, both Korean states have escalated the
conflict. First South Korea pursued an embargo of North Korea, which
has now retaliated by vowing to sever all economic and diplomatic ties. They have also accused the South of "military provocation." South Korea
has reported losing track of four North Korean
submarines. How serious is the risk of violence becoming?

Conflict
Unlikely, but Region Bracing for Worst Reuters' Phil Stewart reports
"analysts say the possibility of a major conflict between the two Koreas
is remote." However, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are planning
"trilateral talks" in June and "Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama
has said tension on the Korean peninsula underlined the importance of
tight U.S.-Japan ties and was key to his decision to keep a
controversial U.S. airbase on Okinawa island."

'Closer to a
Flashpoint' AFCEA NightWatch's John McCreary comments, "The events on Tuesday moved the increased tension
closer to a flashpoint. The North has completed its isolation from the
South, the kind of move it orchestrates when there are internal
leadership problems as well as in reaction to external threats. The resumption of loudspeaker broadcasts is one of
the two actions by South Korea that the North announced on Monday would
result in a shooting incident across the Demilitarized Zone, in the
central sector. The South is calling the North's bluff, except the North
is not bluffing. That means the South should have a contingency plan in
place that includes retaliation responses prepared in advance."

Foreign
Powers Must Guide ReconciliationThe Guardian declares,
"Relations between the two Koreas are at their worst for decades. ...
Outside powers must restrain the parties, and, in particular, China must
restrain North Korea, since it is the only country that has any real
leverage in Pyongyang." They call Korea "one of the most volatile
relationships on the planet" and insist on international forces guiding
reconciliation.

Should NK Be Designated Terrorist State? Foreign
Policy's Josh Rogin reports, "back in
Washington, calls are heating up for the Obama administration to take
punitive measures like putting North Korea back on the State
Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism. But the Obama
administration is clearly signaling it does not intend to do that any
time soon. The calculation is that the listing, which administration
officals see as having been overly politicized by George W. Bush's
administration, is more trouble than it's worth."

China's
Growing Concernof NK Stability National Review's Reuben Johnson speculates
of Kim Jong-Il's early May trip to China, "It is not just the sinking
of the Cheonan that has Beijing worried about what is happening inside
the 'Hermit Kingdom.' There are a number of signs that China's rulers
are worried about the Kim regime's stability in general and the North
Korean ruler's physical condition and mental state in particular.
Informed speculation holds that the Chinese leadership wanted to see
firsthand to what degree Kim is now mentally and/or physically
impaired." He says "Beijing lacks confidence in Kim's health" and his
stability as a ruler. Should the rest of the world share that concern?

South Korea took an important step this
week, announcing that it will bar North Korean ships from its waters,
cease most trade with and investment in North Korea, and join the
Proliferation Security Initiative. The U.S. must ensure that South Korea
holds firm on these policies, and it should push other countries to
implement them and to close their airspace to North Korean aircraft. The
U.S. and its allies should also announce that they are postponing
negotiations with North Korea on all other issues until this matter is
resolved.

Furthermore, Washington must increase its military
cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, including by bolstering its naval
presence in the region and engaging in anti-submarine and mine-clearing
operations. Finally, the U.S. should declare North Korea a state sponsor
of terror and sanction countries and companies that violate existing
Security Council resolutions, for example by failing to freeze
Pyongyang's assets and aiding in its acquisition and sale of weapons and
WMD components.