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IT is a conceit of those who come later to imagine that they and the stuff happening around them are more important. That the battles they fight are fiercer, the resistance more noble, the enemy uglier, the tactics used more innovative or baser, the squalor worse.

The madness unprecedented.

Of course, the particular history of this country can help temper that conceit. Four great saviours, several robed crusaders, violent ideologues, a humiliating severing less than a quarter century in. And the circumstances of birth itself, the euphoria and cataclysm reduced to a single, awesome word: Partition.

So there’s no need to get carried away just now.

But there is need to be concerned.

The crisis is real and it’s multifaceted, and the closer we get to the election, the worse it may get.

The wild uncertainty, confusion and, yes, fear that has gripped the political process isn’t just a figment of everyone’s imagination. You don’t need Nawaz to tell you there is a crisis or Imran to deny there’s a crisis or Zardari to be sniffing around for an advantage in the crisis to know there’s a crisis.

The crisis is real and it’s multifaceted, and the closer we get to the election, the worse it may get. Because for all the manipulation and attempted control of the process, there’s a powerful unknown factor in all of this: the electorate itself.

It’s a story that’s already been told in several forms. The N-League hasn’t splintered, the PTI can’t stop getting in its own way, political intelligence from the field suggests a divided electorate and hung parliament.

Pakistan in 2018 isn’t Pakistan in 2008 and definitely not Pakistan in 1998.

Some of that is good and, in fact, certainty-promoting. Polling-day rigging is harder to pull off than ever, whether by ballot stuffing, suppressing turnout or manipulating the results announced.

Because it’s possible to say it now, the most consistently rigged elections in the country have probably been in Karachi. Not because the MQM wouldn’t win a majority of seats anyway, but the old party wanted total control.

Sixty per cent wasn’t good enough when 90 or 100 per cent could be had through brute force. And what a reign it was: organised ballot stuffing; suppressing turnout for whatever little opposition there was with violence and intimidation; dictating to election officials the final results to be announced.

That formidable machine was built on fear, the certainty of retribution and the public knowledge that the MQM would win a majority anyway. So why should anyone have risked much to try and get that MQM to stick to realistic winning margins or a more believable seat count.

That fear has never really existed at the national level and it is even less so now, even in the midst of the wildest of speculation and conspiracies. And then there’s the real change: information.

The game is really about the pre- and post-poll process: assembling the right weave of candidates nationally and a working majority — solo if you’re lucky, a coalition if you must — in parliament after the election.

Far from impossible in normal times that, and not entirely beyond the stretch of imagination in the election ahead. But that’s also where the problem is: even if the right weave of candidates is assembled nationally, will the electorate necessarily bite?

That this isn’t your parents’ electorate is obvious enough. Different worlds to the electorate of the ’70s and substantially different to the one in the ’90s. Age and changes in the country have guaranteed that.

But it may also be a substantially different electorate to the one in ’08.

An 18-year-old in 2008 was unlikely to have voted, the voting age having been reduced from 21 only an election before and the young generally being politically disengaged. In 2018, that man or woman is 28 — the range in which voting becomes a serious option.

New voters being pumped into the system and previously younger voters turning older don’t have to radically change electoral equations — and manipulations.

But in this time, this decade, the years between 2008 and 2018 something unusual has happened. Democratic continuity, two full-term civilian-era parliaments, three consecutive on-time elections and a second consecutive peaceful transition of power imminent — that everyone knows.

What’s less noticed is the hyper engagement and participation, and in the very places that it matters electorally. Turnout was a historic high in 2013, at 55pc nationally a distinct outlier from the historic range of 35-45pc.

But in Punjab it was 60pc in 2013, a full 12 points higher than 2008.

There’s plenty of indication that the 2013 levels will be maintained or surpassed in 2018, especially in Punjab. The February by-election in Lodhran was not an anomaly. A six-figure vote count for the winner and similar total votes for winner and loser combined in 2013 suggests a hyper-energised electorate.

It makes a kind of sense that 2018 could see a historic or thereabouts turnout.

Nawaz has been running around the country for a year, essentially in campaign mode. Imran has continued the PTI’s perma-campaign. It is difficult to recall stretches in which the PTI has been wholly inactive since essentially Oct 2011.

Now, Shahbaz has added himself to the mix.

Big turnout in a changed electorate after a decade of continuity and with systematic polling-day manipulation seemingly foreclosed — even those with the biggest toolbox shouldn’t be sure the electorate will respond as desired.

Turnout may have unleashed a powerful unknown factor: the electorate itself.

On DawnNews

Comments (40) Closed

Feroz

Jun 03, 2018 07:26am

How does it matter which way the electorate votes when the Pied Piper can rearrange the pawns elected on the chessboard to suit itself. Not a whimper was heard about the recent rearrangements in Baluchistan or the Senate so no one can understand why the author is blindsided and harping on elections, rather than likely actions of those elected.

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Patriotic

Jun 03, 2018 07:36am

No trust left in these democratic parties, PMLN, PPP, PTI, all have same faces, same agendas, no one cares millions of people. Why waste huge revenue for elections, why not caretake government continues and lets complete impartial court proceedings for every politician. What we saw in last 10 years of democracy is horrible. We are still fighting for clean water, electricity, and daily necessities of life. During last 10 years, can democratic members justify there benefits and salaries which they took?

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brr

Jun 03, 2018 07:43am

By weakening Nawaz, the establishment hopes to have a more pliable PM next time around. IK fits that bill.

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Truth is truth

Jun 03, 2018 07:48am

Even with the assurances from the chief justice and DEC, timely e!section seems highly improbable.

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Aamir

Jun 03, 2018 08:28am

Good analysis. I think voter turnouts in Punjab will be very high. This time people want “Vote Ko Izat Do”.

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Zoraiz

Jun 03, 2018 09:09am

Again, speculation and nothing else.

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Rashid

Jun 03, 2018 09:50am

excellent article as usual but writer have not raised the big question. Who is going to benefit from higher turnout? In the past it was supposed, higher turnout mean more votes to IK. It may reversed this time?

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Shalone

Jun 03, 2018 10:37am

There is truth in the analysis by Cyril. Personally I do not care who wins, but wish those we elect are liberal souls who stand for equal rights to all including women and minorities. Most important of all winners should have the last word on everything government does. It will also help if opposing parties respect those who have lost and won. Democracy wins if all parties are on one side against those forces who do not want democracy stabilised.

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Adnan

Jun 03, 2018 11:29am

Turnout will be high , so there is higher chances of PTi to win 2018 election , if its free and fair not like 2013.

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Peter

Jun 03, 2018 11:34am

Looks like NS going to win Punjab ...IK will be the spoiler ?

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Pro Democracy

Jun 03, 2018 11:48am

You are right and these same electorate are going to show their displeasure on political engineering and they will vote against forces responsible for manipulation

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Pro Democracy

Jun 03, 2018 11:50am

PTI is going to lose 2018 elections in big way by this same unknown factors the electorate

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asif

Jun 03, 2018 11:55am

in 2013 it was imran who energised the electorate. but this time around, it seems nawaz is doing what imran done back then. and the results seem to in huge favour of nawaz if he succeeds in mobilizing his voters

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Sheikh Sa'adi

Jun 03, 2018 01:00pm

All the Best Pakistan.

Go ahead and crush the pretenders once and forever.

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SD

Jun 03, 2018 01:09pm

No doubt that there will be manipulation and delaying tactics in the coming election. And the reasons are obvious first one to weaken pml n.

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ajay

Jun 03, 2018 01:12pm

200%...thanks to the "invisible hand".

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Salman

Jun 03, 2018 01:32pm

Bravo Cyril writes are more balanaced article and points to an important factor in the forecoming elections.

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Najum

Jun 03, 2018 02:37pm

MQM controlled Karachi through fear and intimidation for good 30 years. Let's see what the Karachites decide; when the terrorism is removed from the polling process.

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Majnu

Jun 03, 2018 02:49pm

I think this time the election results in Pakistan will be hung, all parties gaining some part with none of them having enough to form a government. At the end the result seems to be a coalition with IK becoming the PM.

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Sab Se Pehle Pakistan

Jun 03, 2018 03:41pm

Every citizen of the country should consider to boycott this selection, I mean elections till correct census and delimitations are done. This current ECP is acting like a political wing of Corruption Mafias PML-N and PPP. Take action now before this rigged election system bring these mafias in to power once again.

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Abbas

Jun 03, 2018 04:24pm

After today's SC verdict; count me out of the voters list.

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Adil Jadoon

Jun 03, 2018 04:33pm

@Patriotic you are fighting for clean water because you voted for people who have delivered nothing after being in power three times. Democracy is the only way to hold them accountable....no one does their job unless they sre held accountable...anywhere

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Syed H

Jun 03, 2018 06:01pm

It must be pointed out to Mr Almedia that rigging of elections, and that too of a very blatant kind, remains an indisputable reality with regard to Interior Sindh.

Rigging has been, and will in all likelihood again be, a central feature of the PPP's "success" in Sindh. The benighted citizens of this corner of our land will once again be ruled by a kleptocratic and thuggish PPP government come election time, continuing Sindh's position in holding some of the worst human development indicators in the world, including incidents of outright starvation.

While the rest of the country thought the PPP nightmare ended in 2013, it has continued in even more awful fashion for the hapless people of Sindh. The PPP will pull out all the stops, rigging included, to ensure that their reign of loot and torment over Sindh continues. So, pity the innocent and starving of Sindh; the least we can do is not forget them when any of us, such as you Mr Almedia, says that rigging is a thing of the past.

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Pro Democracy

Jun 03, 2018 06:31pm

@Syed H I am from Lahore but I lived in Karachi for ten years for work. I fully understand everything you wrote here word by word. Nightmare of PPP rule ended in Punjab in 2013 elections by people of Punjab. My Sindhi brothers and sisters have to stand for their rights and in 2018 elections vote for PMLN.

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d patel

Jun 03, 2018 07:43pm

A good narrative of the current affairs. However, the pessimistic tone is unwarranted. The politics comes packaged with democratic process. It is better to get prepared, get used to it and make the best out of the whole package. The democracy is still very young and eventually, it will slowly but surely come to maturity. The alternate is dictatorship.

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Rashid

Jun 03, 2018 09:02pm

You forgot to mentioned who is responsible for this chaotic situation?

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Jalaluddin S. Hussain

Jun 03, 2018 10:18pm

Following is possible, provided the vested interests do not play their games:

"Turnout may have unleashed a powerful unknown factor: the electorate itself."

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Easy-to-Guess

Jun 03, 2018 10:42pm

PMLN will be back in business - w/ or w/o Nawaz Sharif.

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Parvez

Jun 04, 2018 12:04am

' Every action has an equal and opposite reaction ' ...... if the PML-N wins the election I hope they have the good grace to thank the superior judiciary....and NAB.

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Cbk

Jun 04, 2018 01:21am

@Patriotic
Do you believe that the caretaker government would be better as if those people cane from a special place!
The game is clear, “those that cannot be named” mistakenly think their hidden rule will be better without realising that their previous engagements were a failure. They should try to get better at their own job which is to protect Pakistan.

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Cbk

Jun 04, 2018 01:26am

@Rashid they cannot be named but they are usually found sleeping on borders when our nation is being infiltrated, surrendering in large numbers like 90k or painting tree trunks white. The think they are super smart but will soon figure out their mistakes

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Shakeel Ahmed

Jun 04, 2018 06:28am

@Shalone

What you say about seeing a liberal running the country would be ideal but sure enough it is not going to happen. Only yesterday I was listening to Sheikh Rashid of AML and he slipped when he said he had a stronger vote bank this time because he rallied the cause against the recent tampering of the Election Bill. What a strong religious card all political parties have as an ammunition.

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Feroz

Jun 04, 2018 09:31am

The elections in Pakistan are farce from reality. Every politician is power hunger, to have a wealthy life, with security all around, travel abroad.

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Hoonar

Jun 04, 2018 09:34am

Pakistan democracy, is gloomy.

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KayAar

Jun 04, 2018 09:38am

@Aamir

Can you explain the analysis. I have a PhD but fail to find what the author wants to say.

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AW

Jun 04, 2018 09:53am

No one in their right mind will now vote for the
PML-N or the PPP or the Fazal ur Rehman’s JUI or the ANP

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HonorBright

Jun 04, 2018 04:15pm

Votes may count in our country; voters don't.

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MONIER

Jun 04, 2018 08:57pm

Pakistan certainly needs a change of faces and acts at the top of government offices. PPP, PML-N have proved to be a failure.

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hinjew

Jun 05, 2018 06:57pm

How come no mention of boys? #PinchesSelf

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Rao Amjad Ali

Jun 06, 2018 11:27am

Whatever the reason(s) behind it, the paradigm shift is conspicuous as there is no mention of the "chaps", a term that has quite suddenly, if not curiously, been replaced by the "electorate".

On a slightly different note, it would be instructive to know what is it that the establishment can do or achieve with Imran Khan and associates at the helm, which it cannot with PML(N)? A party that has a long history of appeasement albeit admittedly with spurts of weak tactics and poorly calibrated hostility with the "khalai makhlooq", but never threatening to look into its books or invoke cutbacks.