Know your way around things that go boom? Can you make it in your kitchen.

Ever put together an 18 wheeler from a box?

Ever built a foundation, put in a well, a triple loop electical system that meets county codes,,, in 10 countys?

Do you have a contractors lic. in two states?

Did you grow up on a farm/ranch and get your first job at age 12,, at a bigger ranch?

Have you tatooed, branded, taged, casterated, or polled cattle?,,, or traded them in the commodity pits? Do you know the differance between an intermucular, subcutainiose, and venos shot? ( I learned how to do them,,, not spell them ). Do you know what a Put or a call is,,, can you soup up your own PC?

Can you build a water wheel? A forge,,, can you shape, aneel, braze, solder, weld, cut, temper, or cast with a homemade forge?,,, Can you fish? Can you TIG, MIG, Gas, and Zap?,,, can you carbon arc?

Have you ever cut down a 20' in dia. Redwood tree?,,, and then delt with it? How about draging $150,000 worth of Mobil home thru 2' of mud up a hill with a D-8 cat in the dead of winter,,, in a rain forest?

"Ever run a gang punch, typed at a keypunch, wired an interpreter
board, queued a batch job, converted hex, written BAL, debugged JCL,
used CPM, heard of Holleriths' code, run a sorter. MR. POOLE? I have."

As someone living in California where the price of gasoline has
increased some 40% in the last month and still continues to climb...

Mr. Poole wrote, "name some of these things that will fail due to Y2K
bugs and cut off the flow of oil"

The way I see it the flow of oil does not need to be cut off in order
to impact people and cause a negative shift in the economy. If there
is a decrease in availability or the desire of the oil companies to
simply increase their profits by taking advantage of the publics
perception of Y2k disruptions then there will be an impact on people
and it will cause discomfort.

With my recent experience, here in California, I am sure from first
hand experience that things break within the production and shipping
of oil products and that these disruptions can have a direct impact.

Are you so sure that things don't break in this industry? Are you so
sure that things wont break due to y2k within this industry? Can you
offer proof that this is the case? Can you offer proof that nothing
will occur within the oil industry that will cause me to pay $2.50 or
higher for a gallon of gas? I don't think so.

How will that impact this city where everyone drives a car? How will
that hurt the average consumer when they must spend more of their
money to commute to their jobs and less on other goods such as food?

Right now the average price for regular unleaded gasoline in my area
is about $1.55. Supreme is up around $1.73. This is because of two
refineries that had "difficulties" and there was no mention of Y2k as
being a cause. The news said that one refinery went off line for a
month to do some maintenance and when they came back up things just
didn't work right so they went down again. I'm not sure if they are
back up yet.

So, refineries break. Shortages happen. Oh, and maybe the oil
companies have a profit motive too (maybe they can make up a little of
that revenue they spent on solving their Y2k problems if there are
some "shortages")

Factor in a couple of simple y2k problems, not only nationwide but
possibly worldwide, that would have a few refineries down for a period
of time and things might get ugly.

"Ever run a gang punch, typed at a keypunch, wired an interpreter board, queued a batch job, converted hex, written BAL, debugged JCL, used CPM, heard of Holleriths' code, run a sorter. MR. POOLE? I have."

Hey, yea, me too, all of the above! I have!!! Am I in?
=================================================

Sure,,, but I'd be quiet about it after the roll-over if it goe's bad.

Of COURSE things break now; that's a point that I make repeatedly
at my Web site. In fact,
that mitigates AGAINST Y2K doom and gloom, because these systems fail
NOW, and we work around them.

When a Doomlit points to something and says, "if a Y2K bug killed
this, bad things would happen," the first question out of my mouth is,
"OK, so what do they do NOW when that thing fails?" ... because the
answer to that question will usually demonstrate that the Doomlit
scenarios are almost always overstated.

And just for the record, I wasn't talking about the flow of oil
stopping abruptly and completely; I was indeed talking about a
reduction in overall imports due to a flow stoppage at one or two
points.

The ships?,,, cover things like 'puter controlled balast,,,, you know they turn turtle if balast is wrong. How bout Nav,,, got radar,,, gps... a clock?,,, are they compliant?,,, do you have any idea what it takes to make a pencil?,,, a piece of paper?,, a supertanker?,,, and make it work?,,, all of it?

"Of COURSE things break now; that's a point that I make repeatedly at
my Web site."

Yes, we know Stephen. This is one link that you do know how to post.
Does your site get paid by hit or something? dO yoU NOt THinK tHaT
MosT oF THe RegUlarS have been there?

We have about 50 PCs, and our mainframe where I work. In the past 5
years we have lost 2 PC hard drives, 3 PC monitors, and 1 mainframe
drive. Failures.

We develope systems, in other words, write programs. The developers
have software "failures" hourly, until they get the program doing what
it should. No big deal, part of the development process.

We also have production systems. Programs that have been debugged,
declared "ready" and running, usually having run many times. We also
have production "failures." All kinds, usually data related. This is
when people start looking funny, working late, and just being
generally grumpy. It's no fun when production fails, whatever the
reason, software or hardware.

Y2K is going to bring many failures, many many more than business as
usual. All at relatively the same time. So many, that no one knows.

Accidents happen all the time, usually two cars running into each
other. Every once in a while, under just the right conditions, fog on
a freeway for example, we have a hundred car accident. The conditions
will be here in less than eight months.

What your point on normal failures has to do yith Y2K leaves me
clueless.
-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 06, 1999.

Stephen, the question has never been "Will they all fail at once?"
because the answer to that is clearly "NO." (simple test psych, any
"all" or"none" has to be false in the real world.

The proper question is "Will we be able to work around whatever
percentage does break?"

I am CERTAIN we can work around the first 4 or 5 things that break in
any organization. doesn't matter what they are, we can get around
them. The more valid question is HOW fault tolerant are we, in each
organization. Can we get around a 3% failure rate? 10%? 20%?

NONE of us has been able to quantify the fault tolerance of ANY of
the organizations that have been discussed in a coon's age here on
the forum.

Turn TURTLE? Oh come on CT, I was LOL at a towboat just yesterday.
The engineer forgot to shut off the pump to the bow-starboard trim
tank and the overflow had popped up and was putting a hundred gallons
or so a minute on the forward deck. PS - she did not sink - just
tipped a bit. And you want to know something - they don't have just
computers to steer ships - they have backup systems.

Mikey...I just want to know one thing. Do you already have a wife??? I am one of the lucky ones. Hubby can do all those things too. You learn alot when you are from Alaska. But if something should happen to hubby, be nice to have a back up. LOL

On this thread we now have not one, but two, of the concepts that are
used to argue that nothing bad will result from Y2K:

1. We have routine failures or errors now and are able to work
through them.

2. We can simply revert to manual or backup modes.

Mssrs. Poole and Davis -- the untenable weak point in your positions
is that you attempt to extrapolate the capability of working around
one program error or one failed control to an equal capabillity
given any number of errors or failures.

And, although several people have called this to your attention, you
ignore this weakness in the hope that if a lie is repeated often
enough it will be believed.

Surely, even you recognize that at some point in time the number of
failures in a system becomes overwhelming to that system. You do,
don't you? You haven't mentioned this.

No one here claims that every line of code or every control circuit is
going to fail, and, speaking only for myself, I don't claim that
single failures will be disasterous for the human race. So, we're not
talking about single point failures. We're talking about cumulative
failures.

As you point out we have single point failures daily.

Of course you don't point out that some of these result in explosions
or other losses of life -- we've all seen reports of explosions and
deaths at various industrial sites this year.

You are rightly quick to note that not all such incidents can be
attributed to Y2K.

But, they do serve notice that any process failure can result
in death, injury and/or property damage.

Rather than try to think up cute new labels for those of us who don't
think we're going to get through the next couple of years without
serious problems (e.g., 'doomlits'), why don't you try to address the
weakness of your arguments?

Mr. Poole, for example, could take a major industrial process --
perhaps the process of extracting oil, pumping it to a port, loading
it on tankers, sailing the tankers to another port, offloading the
oil, refining it into useable petroleum products, and distributing
those products to the end users. Then, he could investigate the
number of computerized control circuits that typically make up this
process. Finally, he could report on redundancy of these units and
the number that can be operated manually, and the number of
individuals available to operate the controls manually, and any loss
of efficiency in the process that accrues from manual operation.

Redundancy is a key issue. Many processes use redundant controls,
so that if one fails the other can take control. Works well as
long as they don't both fail at the same time (Y2K mode!).

We'd also need to know how many of these controls can fail before the
entire process is slowed to various levels of output; 90% of
capacity, 80%, 50%, and so on.

And, of course, we should also have an economic impact statement from
Poole ---- if we only get 85% of the oil supply we depend on, for
example, what does this do to the price of gas at the pump.

In other words, guys, think the problem through. Do your homework
before you rant about daily failures and manual bypasses. If you even
honestly [key word here] consider these factors you'll be
forced to abandon your cherished positions. At the very least
(a very optimistic viewpoint) you'll have to admit that Y2K has great
potential for major problems -- which seems to be the concensus of the
rest of us.

There was an interesting project up North a few years ago addressing
same. Seems, in a effort to bring a little slice of civiliztion to
the natives, someone designed a self contained septic system that
clarified and recycled the water. Water is a Blue Chip commmodity when
your spittle freezes before it hits the ground. Also permafrost is not
too condusive to perk. I'm not sure what ever happened to the project
but it is widely told that if your real quiet, standing in awe of the
Northern lights, you can still hear the sound of laughing and
squealing in some long forgotten dialect.

SHEESH Craig, the only thing I can think of that he missed is Gandy
Dancer. well then there's programming, and unjamming or repairing
the keypunch (I STILL have an open offer for 2 Card Saws), Delivering
a baby, sutured a cut, debrided a wound or burn, done an escharotomy,
shoed horse/mule (*), dowsed successfully, planned a deffense, (time
to get out "Time Enough For Love" to compare the lists).

Mikey- After adding my little items, I went back and re-read the
list. I am, if not in awe of the claimed skills, at least in awe at
the ability to TALK the LANGUAGE of the several skill sets. I
recognize blue collar references to actions i have seen or have done,
by other names.

That list is, while quite a bit longer, no less as good as Heinlein's
list. though, Heinlein's list is set for a less mechanized society.
(See "Time Enough For Love" Robert Heinlein).

I'm very sorry that I neglected to compliment you on your post. I'm
going line by line to try to highlight what I recognize but I know I
wont get anywhere near 75%.

Mr. Poole,

I appreciate your response. However, I guess I didn't make my point
clear so perhaps you might indulge me further.

The two "normal" problems in those refineries caused a ripple effect
throughout the local economies of not only our state but the West
Coast.

These problems happened at a time of relative calm. They were not
compounded by problems in other areas such as the drilling for or the
shipping of or the delivery of oil and certainly there were no
problems in the consumer's ability to purchase gasoline at the pump.
Regardless, those two "normal" failures had an impact.

So, what would the ripple effect to economies be like when there are
"normal" failures occurring at the same time there are failures due to
Y2k glitches?

Perhaps these glitches are very simple and easy to fix but they are
happening at the same time as those "normal" failures.

Perhaps these glitches are not occurring in the refinement of oil but
in just shipping or at the pump.

Heck, maybe there is a problem with the billing systems or the credit
card systems and the oil company suffers a disruption in their normal
cash flow. How would that ripple through the economy?

I don't have any answers just a whole lot of questions. Yet, when I
listen to answers I understand that no one can say with absolute
certainty that there will be no problems in any of the individual
areas within this system due to y2k. I also understand that no one can
say with absolute certainty that there will not be problems due to y2k
glitches in more one area.

My personal belief is that when someone addresses an issue like y2k at
only a technical level then they aren't considering the systemic
nature or the interdependent nature of or the interconnected nature of
this problem.

Don't get me wrong, Mr. Poole, I appreciate your expertise and the
work you do. I just think we differ in how we view what constitutes a
y2k problem.

I'm from the days of EAM, JCL and Core
CoBOL, and PL1, FortranII + IV
We learned those # systems from Bi to Hex and back
Saving keystrokes on the ol' 026 got to be a handy knack
Any loop or logic trick to get right 'down and dirty'
Please pass the wine and cheese, don't trust anyone over thirty
We all smoked pot and inhaled too, and some of us got fried
When they asked us if it's all 'debugged', perhaps sometimes we lied
It wasn't on purpose, or our of malice, well maybe a little spite
I'll fix that parity, check that syntax, ....anybody got a light?
We had our marches, we had our riots, we even had a hero
But they shot us up, and shot us down, and replaced him with their
Nero
Now please be kind, we didn't really mean it, well maybe just a little
But now who's that guy, sittin' in the fire, strummin' on his fiddle
Now in the time for all ....... to come to the aid of their country

Mikeymac@uswest.net

Thanks Chuck--- I sincerely hope I can network with a lot of folks
like you and others here.

Who was it, Dunn I think, that wrote " No man is an island " (open to
corrective critisism here, just be gentle.)

snip-
According to Committee Ranking Democrat Christopher
Dodd, D-Conn., the US depends on much of its oil
supply on
countries that mostly are far behind on their Year
2000
compliance efforts. The top five oil exporters to
the US are
Venezuela (16.2 percent), Canada (15.5 percent),
Saudi
Arabia (14.4 percent), Mexico (12.9 percent) and
Nigeria (7.3
percent). Except for Canada, these countries are
between
six months to 24 months behind on their compliance
efforts,
Dodd said.

Now , let's see Panama is between North and South
America, China is attempting to take control of the canal,
China is on the list of the least y2k "ready" (better?) HMMMMM!!!!
This may take a while... better go have a cup a Jo and
a fag.

Hmmm..... It seems that Mr. Poole and Mr. Davis have exited the building with Elvis.

spun@lright, if you walk the walk as well as you talk the talk, you certainly have my admiration. Very eloquent. You have silenced the roaring and closed the mouths of the beasts, so to speak. De has also made an excellent suggestion. I would also like to hear the opinion of Mr. Decker (the EEconomist) on the impact to our economy of different levels of oil supply disruptions. Although he has an opinion on everything and everyone, he seems somewhat reluctant so speak to his area of expertise.

You have, however, given the pollys a huge opportunity to defend their position. I wonder if they even have a clue....

I've suspected for a long time that craig was a petty jerk-weed, and his "thoughtful" comments on this thread confirm it.

An excellent list of basic starter skills for anyone wishing to
prosper after a worst-case Y2K event. I might add that in addition to
the items you've listed that I have on my resume, the tasks of
planting, topping, priming, tying, heisting, sorting, grading and
packing tobacco. In addition to your list, these may also come in as
profitable endeavors in the near-term future.

Double deck (no nines), Jarhead style (or Navy style). Penny a point,
quarter a set, dollar a game. Unsheathed bayonets on the table.
Double for a "Slam"? We called taking every trick "A Boston", is that
what you mean by a slam? And, yeah, cutthroat is a pain. . .

NO, I was was referring to trump tight double run no brainer two bucks
please next game... hand, But I sure like gettin' em in a cross fire,
widowed ace, table slappin Boston even better. Let's cut for partners.
OK? Only one thing tougher than a jarhead, a locked down polly, playin
for dessert.

No disrespect intended, I was just imagining you play as I read your
post and expected a warrior attitude that would be great to sit in on,
on either side. The only thing I could imagine at the the time, that
might be tougher read, would be a totally unprepared and desperate
polly, sittin in an internment camp, trying to win at something.

Oh come on now Elbow Grease, some of us have to work for a living.
As for oil prices, I have heard many many economists estimate the
price of oil from 5 to 20 years ahead in my life. Every one of them
was wrong, on the high side to boot. Check out the Time archive if
you don't believe me - look for stories about oil in the late 70's
and early 80's. Many stories predicting gas prices of $5.00/gal by
the ninties. Don't miss the bit where Kennedy cried on the Capitol
steps because he could not stop the deregulation of natural gas.

Ah. Mr. Davis returns. Empty-handed. That would be *Mister* Elbow Grease, Mr. Davis. Yes, I know about work. My moniker has nothing to do with petroleum products and everything to do with work. [ I *would* like to know what "screeded a slab" means.... the steel industry?]

My interest is not with oil prices per se. I would like to see an analysis of how increasing disruptions to oil supplies might, stratum by stratum, affect our overall economy. So much is dependent on oil. How does a dollar a barrel increase translate into price inflation? What other factors are involved? Is there a smooth curve, or are there discontinuities, i.e. spikes in the function? How do disruptions in refining capacity, or pipeline delivery, or tanker delivery, differ from lower supplies of imported crude oil? IOW, How much of an impact, in how short a time, can our system absorb without subsequent major economic disruptions?

Now, Mr. Davis, I've dangled a clue before your eyes. The truth is, I'm tired of the polarization that has developed on the forum. Are you willing to admit that a polly guess is no better than a doomer guess? It's still just a guess. Spun@lright has handed you a compelling argument. Have you "got it" yet?