WASDE: Total Meat Production Up, Exports Lowered

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast pork production.

Beef production is raised from last month largely due to heavier expected carcass weights. Steer and heifer slaughter is reduced for the first quarter, but cow slaughter is raised. Pork production is reduced based on lower slaughter in the first quarter. The broiler production forecast is raised as producers are expected to respond to stronger forecast first-half broiler prices and lower projected second-half feed meal prices. Turkey production is forecast higher on heavier bird weights and slightly higher slaughter. Egg production is raised based on hatchery data. Poultry and egg production for 2012 is adjusted to reflect revisions in production data.

The beef export and import forecasts for 2013 are lowered based on slower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork exports are lowered from last month as export demand has softened. The broiler export forecast is unchanged from last month. Changes in estimates for 2012 trade reflect December data.

Cattle prices for 2013 are lowered from last month, reflecting slightly weaker demand for fed cattle into the second quarter of the year. Hog and broiler price forecasts are unchanged from last month. Forecast broiler prices are raised in the first half on strong demand, but are reduced in the second half on production increases. Turkey prices are lowered on greater production. Egg price forecasts are unchanged.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised from last month largely due to a slower pace of herd reduction and higher first-quarter milk per cow. The 2013 fat-basis export forecast is raised largely on stronger shipments of butter. Skim-solid exports are raised based on greater nonfat dry milk (NDM). Imports are unchanged on both a fat and skimsolidsbasis.

Changes in 2012 estimates of supply and use reflect revised annual data. Prices for cheese and whey are lowered based on expectations of increased production and moderate demand. The forecast butter price is unchanged from last month and the range is tightened. The forecast price of NDM is raised as stronger export demand is expected to support prices. The Class III price forecast is reduced from last month, reflecting weaker cheese and whey prices while Class IV is increased due to higher NDM prices. The all milk price for 2013 is raised to $19.00-$19.60 per cwt.