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8 Ratings UKCoS main source RMT database also examined, but not used

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9 Cadets Originally used GAFT Now use –Data from SMaRT –Cross referenced with MNTB data from training colleges and training providers Issues –SMaRT includes EU nationals –Central database mooted but not developed –UK Data Protection Act used as barrier

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11 Seafarer Retirement Two types –Retirement from ‘active at sea’ –Retirement from working population Deal with former by assuming a ‘wastage rate’ per year Original assumptions were 57 and 65. Now deal with latter by modelling a distribution around mean age of 62.

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12 Model Assumptions Age profile of existing cert officers taken Numbers and age distribution of new OOW officers based on cadet entry and wastage rates ‘Wastage rates’ for 20-40, 40 to retirement Retirement Age distribution applied around mean of 62

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13 Model Performance

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14 Source: Calculated by Author Note: Figures based on adjusted 2006 total. Proportional splits based on UKCoS survey for the year in which forecast is made.

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18 Lessons for EMSA Consistency in definition of ‘active seafarer’ Core competencies should be identified – I.e. should ‘Tug & Inshore craft’ be included Standard format for data transmission between national agencies & EMSA Independent Hyperbase or Snapshot of data from National Agencies Compliance with National & EU Data protection legislation may generate issues Database design should be driven by information requirements, not admin needs Certification ignores Ratings and Cadets – how to measure and monitor? Projection models – alternatives to the Stock-flow eg demand based models?

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19 Concluding Remarks Given the impression all is doom and gloom Very great improvement since 1996 Expect that further improvements will take place in the next 10 years