Will: Barack goes to New Hampshire - on purpose

Joe DillPublished: December 15, 2006 12:00AM

WASHINGTON New Hampshire recently was brightened by the presence ofBarack Obama, 45, who, calling the fuss about him "baffling," made hisfirst trip in 45 years to that state, and not under duress.
Because he isyoung, is just two years distant from a brief career as a state legislatorand has negligible national security experience, an Obama presidential candidacy could have a porcelain brittleness. But if he wants to be president it will not be a moral failing if he decides he does not,at least not now this is the time for him to reach for the brass ring.
There are four reasons why.
First, one can only be an intriguing novelty once. If he waits to run, the last half-century suggests the wait could be for eight years (seereason four, below). In 2016, he will be only 55, but there will be manyfresher faces.
Second, if you get the girl up on her tiptoes, you should kiss her.
The electorate is on its tiptoes because Obama has collaborated with thecreation of a tsunami of excitement about him. He is nearing the point whena decision against running would brand him as a tease who ungallantly toyed with the electorate's affections.
Third, he has, in Hillary Clinton, the optimal opponent. The contrastis stark: He is soothing; she is not. Many Democrats who are desperate towin are queasy about depending on her. For a nation with jangled nerves,and repelled by political snarling, he offers a tone of sweetreasonableness.
What people see in him reveals more about them than about him. Some of his public utterances have the spunginess of Polonius' bromides for Laertes ("neither a borrower nor a lender be ... to thine own self be true"). In2005, the liberal Americans for Democratic Action and the AFL-CIO rated his voting record a perfect 100. The nonpartisan National Journal gave him a82.5 liberalism rating, making him more liberal than Clinton (79.8). Hedutifully decries "ideological" politics, but just as dutifully conforms to most of liberalism's catechism, from "universal" health care, whateverthat might mean, to combating global warming, whatever that might involve, and including the sacred injunction Thou Shalt Execrate Wal-Mart anobligatory genuflection to organized labor.
The nation, which so far is oblivious to his orthodoxy, might not mindit if it is dispensed by someone with Obama's "Can't we all just getalong?" manner. Ronald Reagan, after all, demonstrated the importance ofcongeniality to the selling of conservatism.
Fourth, the odds favor the Democratic nominee in 2008 because for 50years it has been rare for a presidential nominee to extend his party'shold on the presidency beyond eight years. Nixon in 1960 came agonizinglyclose to doing so (he lost the popular vote by 118,574 less than a vote per precinct and a switch of 4,430 votes in Illinois and 24,129 in Texas would have elected him), but failed. As did Hubert Humphrey in 1968 (helost by 510,314 out of 73,211,875 votes cast), Gerald Ford in 1976 (if5,559 votes had switched in Ohio and 7,232 votes had switched inMississippi, he would have won) and Al Gore in 2000 (537 Florida votes).
Only the first President Bush, in 1988, succeeded, perhaps because thecountry desired a third term for the incumbent, which will not be the casein 2008. So the odds favor a Democrat winning in 2008 and, if he or she isre-elected, the Democrat nominated in 2016 losing.
Furthermore, remember the metrics of success that just two years agocaused conservatives to think the future was unfolding in their favor: Bushcarried 97 of the 100 most rapidly growing counties; the center of thenation's population, now southwest of St. Louis, is moving south and westat a rate of two feet an hour; only two Democratic presidents have beenelected in the last 38 years; in the 15 elections since World War II, onlytwice has a Democrat received 50 percent of the vote. Two years later, these facts do not seem so impressive.
In 2000 and 2004, Bush twice carried 29 states that now have 274 electoral votes; Gore and Kerry carried 18 that now have 248. Not muchneeds to change in politics in order for a lot to change in governance. AndObama, like the rest of us, has been warned, by William Butler Yeats: Alllife is a preparation for something that probably will never happen.
Unless you make it happen.
n George Will's e-mail address is georgewill@washpost.com.