AFGHANISTAN ON THE EVE OF SOVIET WITHDRAWAL

ByGail RussellMay 12, 1988

Soviet troops are about to head home, but the war is far from over. The Afghan resistance controls more than 70 percent of the country and vows to continue fighting until the regime in Kabul is ousted. The Moscow-backed communists, though controlling only a handful of garrison cities, are equally determined to retain at least some of their power. Another factor could delay peace: The resistance itself is deeply divided along both tribal and ideological lines. The competition for power among Afghans is expected to continue long after the Soviets withdraw.

March 4, 1988 New round of UN-mediated talks begins in Geneva. April 14, 1988 Signing of Afghan accord in Geneva. Soviets agree to start withdrawal of 115,000 troops on May 15. - The following four items are notes from the map: - Sar-i Pul Province

The Soviet-backed Kabul regime established a new province in this oil-rich region in March. Many are concerned that the Soviets intend to annex or exert continuing influence in this region after the withdrawal. Wakhan Corridor

Since 1981 the Soviets have built missile bases, an air field, and military roads in this strategic valley bordering Pakistan and China. The region was reportedly ceded to the Soviets in a secret 1981 border agreement, and some question whether the Soviets will vacate the region. Refugees

The United Nations, Western governments, and international relief agencies are setting up one of the most massive resettlement programs for war victims since World War II.

About 5 million Afghans have fled across the border, while another 2 million have been displaced within the country. Soviet pullout

The Soviets have agreed to a nine-month withdrawal of their 115,000 to 120,000 troops, half of which are to leave by Aug. 15. The pullout will be monitored by a UN task force. - The third map is visually coded to designate the following areas: -

The Soviet-backed Kabul regime has two main factions: the dominant Parcham faction and the more radical Khalq wing, which maintains its own police militia. The Afghan Army varies from 35,000 to 50,000 troops, with high rates of defection.