Analysis: The Rematch. Again. Yes, Tom
Brady will once again square off with Peyton Manning in what may be
the greatest individual rivalry in football. Earlier this season,
Manning and The Broncos broke out to a big lead only to see Mr.
Brady come back and lead The Patriots to victory in overtime. This
one is for keeps however as the winner goes to The SuperBowl,
representing the AFC. Last week, The Broncos played somewhat
conservative, looking to win the time of possession battle with the
team that had been doing the same to them, in the Chargers. I don't
see Denver changing their plan a whole lot this week but I see them
having more success. They will run the ball against one of the very
worst run defenses in the league, churning clock, and keeping Tom
Brady off of the field. When The Patriots focus on stopping the
run, Manning will exploit the one on one coverage with the crossing
patterns and pick plays, The Broncos utilize to perfection. I see
this being a long day for the injury riddled, well below average,
New England defense. Keep in mind, The Broncos out gain their
opponents by an average of over 100-yards per game and the only
team to keep them under 400-yards in a game all season was The
Chargers, the only 3-times they have been held to such all season.
On the other side, we have the running game of The Patriots that
looked so incredible last week but let's not forget, that was
against The Colts.. who rank only a few spots higher than New
England in the dungeons of NFL rushing defenses. The Broncos
counter with a rush defense that is ranked in the top half dozen of
the league and held the San Diego ground game to just 65-yards last
week. This is the most powerful offense in football with a very
good run defense, going against a team that can't stop the run.
That right there is almost enough for me but let's take a look at
some of the historical trends. Playoff teams that score 40 or more
points are just 4-and-22 ATS the next week including just 1-and-16
ATS when the opponent is off of back to back wins. Tom Brady is
just 4-and-11 ATS when playing at Denver and Broncos Head Coach,
John Fox is 6-and-0 SUATS in the playoffs when favored by less than
a touchdown against a less than elite team. While nearly everything
for me points to The Broncos, the line here is still very
important. I am not against a play on Denver -6 but I feel it is
key to lay -5 or less with -4 being ideal. Peyton's going
back to New York and it's not to visit his brother. Orange
Crush.