3 team trade with Trumbo going to the D'Backs, Adam Eaton (the other one) to the White Sox and pitchers Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Angels. Seems like an awful lot to give up for Trumbo and his .299 OBP even with 30+ homers. I would have rather had Skaggs than Bauer last year but D'Backs seemed reluctant to move him back then.

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:3 team trade with Trumbo going to the D'Backs, Adam Eaton (the other one) to the White Sox and pitchers Skaggs and Hector Santiago to the Angels. Seems like an awful lot to give up for Trumbo and his .299 OBP even with 30+ homers. I would have rather had Skaggs than Bauer last year but D'Backs seemed reluctant to move him back then.

It sure looks like Skaggs and Bauer could be on the same trajectory as White and Pommeranz. For the D'Backs to deal Skaggs, they must believe he won't fulfill his hype. Bauer has practically vanished from any conversation regarding next year's rotation.

Last edited by WiscTribeFan on Thu Dec 12, 2013 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.

Royals pick up Omar Infante for 4/30. Pretty good deal for them. Jonah Keri really likes them if they add another SP. I'm definitely concerned. Tigers are still above both the Indians and Royals, but the Royals are starting to grow into a contender. Lights out pen, good lineup, filled their two biggest lineup holes.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

The financial terms of the deal are unclear, but MLB.com's Jordan Bastian tweets that it will probably be a one-year contract, noting that Axford has two years of arbitration eligibility after this one.

Axford ran into some issues in 2012 and 2013. His home run rate spiked, coinciding with a spike in HR overall at Miller Park (11th in HR park factor in 2011, 1st in 2012, 5th in 2013). Also, one of his biggest issues from 10-11 to 12-13 was a drop in first-pitch strike percentage. When it went back up during his 10-game stint with STL, his numbers improved again.

He's a definite bounceback candidate. By SIERA and xFIP, he's very underrated. 28% strikeout rate in his career.

He'll walk some guys, but getting away from Miller Park and into a more pitcher-friendly park should help him. Plus I trust Callaway to help him out mechanically and with his command.

Should come cheaper than Balfour and Benoit with just as much upside. Also, he's first year arbitration eligible now, so like WTF said, he's controlled through 2016, which is a really nice thing to have.

I'm on board. He's a guy I've targeted since he was non-tendered.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I like it. Younger and cheaper than a guy like Balfour or Benoit, which gives us a bit more money to play with. (Insert laughter here.) Even better, in a sense it's like a one-year deal with two option years, since we maintain control over him thanks to his service time. If he sucks, we can bail on him at the end of the year. If he's successful, we've got him for two more. Gotta like that.

Another quality move from Antonetti just came across the Twitter wire. The team has reportedly signed Shaun Marcum to a minor league deal. No risk here. Might be done, may not stay healthy, but Major League caliber depth at SP is always a good idea.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Indians sign Marcum to Minor league deal. Great no risk, potential high reward signing. He can opt out if he doesn't win a spot on the Opening Day roster. Deal is $1m base which can rise up to $4m + incentives

Rotoworld

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skatingtripods wrote:He'll walk some guys, but getting away from Miller Park and into a more pitcher-friendly park should help him. Plus I trust Callaway to help him out mechanically and with his command.

He was dealt from the Brewers for blowing saves, correct? And the Cards decided not to reup him?

I agree, he can only get better. I disagree that moving locales is a good reason to be encouraged.

Erie Warrior wrote:He was dealt from the Brewers for blowing saves, correct? And the Cards decided not to reup him?

I agree, he can only get better. I disagree that moving locales is a good reason to be encouraged.

Why not stay in-house?

Yes, he was traded for ineffectiveness. The Cardinals didn't keep him because they didn't need a guy projected to make 5.7M in arbitration pitching the 7th inning for him. They have plenty of good, young, and most importantly, cheap arms in the pen.

Park factor means something, whether you want to believe it or not. It's not a cure-all for Axford, but his HR/FB% is way too high to be sustainable in a neutral park.

Because the in-house options have no closing experience and Francona explicitly said that he wanted to keep Shaw and Allen in their current roles. Many saber-minded people believe that the best relievers should be the bridge to the closer. You don't need a closer if you can't get to him.

The bullpen looks significantly better today than it did early yesterday because of its depth. You've got capable arms in Shaw and Allen monitoring the 7th and 8th. You've still got Rzepczynski as your LOOGY. If you get any kind of return to form from Pestano, you've got another RHP, and a quality one at that. There's also CC Lee for the 5th/6th and Blake Wood will be more than a year removed from Tommy John and he has very good stuff if his command returns. He's a wild card, but a power arm that could be a big surprise.

Axford was the missing piece. A designated 9th inning guy to set up the necessary roles and leave your best arms in the high-leverage spots. Advanced metrics show a lot of promise. Whether he reaches that promise or not, we don't know, but it's a one-year deal that the Indians can walk away from either during the season or after it if necessary.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

pup wrote:Tripods - With the control years...if he has a really good year, won't he just be priced out of what we are willing to spend on a closer?

Depending on the incentives, a "really good year" might give him the full 6.25M, probably putting him around 7.5-8M in arbitration next season. That would give the Indians quite a decision. If he's good, but not great, the Indians can probably fill the closer role for 7M or less with Axford for 2015. Perez made 7.3M last year. Had he been more effective, it would have been interesting to see if they would have kept him for around 9M.

By next season, Francona may be comfortable giving the role to Cody Allen. Who knows. It's a good play in the meantime because we have that flexibility and options at the end of the season.

I also think it depends on the rest of the pen. Does Allen avoid a hangover from last season's workload and continue to improve? Is Shaw for real? Can Pestano return to form? Can CC Lee or Preston Guilmet (or maybe TJ House or somebody else) step up into a 7th inning role? If somebody steps up to deepen the pen, you could shift a setup man into the closer role. That may be more of a deciding factor with Axford in 2015 than the money.

Now, not sure I want to hear the explanation that it is better to lose a lead in the 9th than the 7th, but who am I?

The theory would be that if your high-leverage spot comes in the 7th, you want your best guy there because you can add on the next time you bat. I get what you're saying, especially because a blown save in the 7th at least leaves you a couple chances to come back while a blown save in the 9th generally leaves you with one or none.

Francona's exact quote was: "I think [Allen] could handle it with very little hiccups," Francona said last week. "Saying that, I'm not sure that that puts our ballclub in the best position to win. At an early age, we used him in so many high-leverage situations. From the sixth inning on, bases loaded, snuff out a rally, we basically went to Cody. Right- or left-handed didn't matter. He was so good at it, and I would think he'll only continue to get better. It's hard to lose that guy.

"That one guy can make your whole bullpen so much better. So many times you get a save situation, it could be a three-run game with nobody on and the game's already been lost in the seventh or eighth. Same thing [with Shaw]. He could do it in the ninth, no doubt. But, what he does earlier is valuable."

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I get what Tito is saying. I hear "we need guys to get it done in the 7th, 8th and 9th" more than I hear "the 7th inning guy is more important".

So without signing a closer, we had 2 guys (Allen/Shaw) that he is comfortable, as of today, using in big situations. He wanted a third. If the third guy had no closing experience, you pick the one you think has the best mental capacity to handle the role. However, adding someone with that experience creates the best option. Basically everyone is in a role they have had before.

David Cooper got a Major League deal, so he'll have to get worked in somewhere, otherwise he'd need to clear waivers to get sent down. Still think Stubbs gets dealt for some kind of arm. Tito likes eight arms in the pen, so curious to see how they handle that situation, especially because the rotation doesn't look like it will give them a lot of length.

Really not a whole lot of openings on the roster. I'd be happy with a SP upgrade, but I'm not sure if we'll see one unless Ubaldo comes crawling back.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Francona's exact quote was: "I think [Allen] could handle it with very little hiccups," Francona said last week. "Saying that, I'm not sure that that puts our ballclub in the best position to win. At an early age, we used him in so many high-leverage situations. From the sixth inning on, bases loaded, snuff out a rally, we basically went to Cody. Right- or left-handed didn't matter. He was so good at it, and I would think he'll only continue to get better. It's hard to lose that guy.

"That one guy can make your whole bullpen so much better. So many times you get a save situation, it could be a three-run game with nobody on and the game's already been lost in the seventh or eighth. Same thing [with Shaw]. He could do it in the ninth, no doubt. But, what he does earlier is valuable."

This was my major point- but it's not my money. His contract better have a facial hair clause. I just don't put much stock in his 10 innings with the cards (sample size, right?)

5. Have you heard about any team seriously linked to Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana?

The answer to No. 5 was easy: No. Because circumstances are buzz-sawing the negotiating leverage from underneath those two veteran pitchers.

A) Santana and Jimenez are anchored to draft-pick compensation, while pitchers like Matt Garza and Tanaka are not. It has been established over the past two winters that many teams won’t even consider signing free agents attached to draft picks because they don’t want to lose the draft pick or the draft budget dollars tied to each pick.

As each day in the offseason passes and teams lock in their 2014 budgets and rotations, the options for the two pitchers are shrinking, as they did for Kyle Lohse last winter. The best option for both might be to re-sign with the team they pitched for in 2013.

It’s an easier fit because neither the Royals nor the Indians would have to sacrifice their first-round draft pick to make it work.

Even if Santana and Jimenez returned to their old teams, they would do so with diminished negotiating leverage. Maybe they haven’t reached that point yet; maybe bidders have quietly emerged.

But it may be that Santana and Jimenez will soon need contractual lifelines.

If I'm Ubaldo, I would consider telling my agent that I'll take a one-year, 12-14M deal in Cleveland to prove to people that I wasn't a fluke. He'll only be entering his age 31 season in 2015, so he's still going to get a decent pay day, especially if he puts together another strong season. Even if draft pick compensation is attached to him next offseason, another year of success will make him more attractive to teams in need of a starter.

It's not the best situation for him, because he was expecting a multi-year deal, but he knows Callaway and Francona were a big part of his turnaround and another year under their tutelage could yield a very lucrative deal if he stays patient. Sure, there's risk involved, if he gets injured or reverts back to the Jimenez of 2011-12.

I guess you ask yourself, do I take 3/39 now or hope for 4/60 next offseason? Not concrete figures, but that's probably his decision. Less years, lower AAV or prove I'm for real and get more years and more AAV.

I don't know what the market is for him and if he has a two or three-year offer on the table, I'd probably take that, but if there really isn't much activity, it wouldn't be the worst course of action for him.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

If 3/39 is his price, I think that's a no-brainer. We were on the fortunate side last year with scheduling, we can't lose him and Kazmir and expect to be on the same level. 1 year 13 mill obviously works too if he wants to prove his value for a big deal next year, but wasn't the qualifying offer he already turned down in that range? I'd even go up to 15 if it's a one year deal. As it stands now, we have Masty, McAllister, Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Salazar, Tomlin, and Marcum as contenders for rotation time. Way too many question marks in there for my taste. We need to take advantage of our leverage with other teams having to sacrifice a draft pick if they want him.

"Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do...win the whole, f***in', thing."- Jake Taylor

Also, while TCF was down, Drew Stubbs to Colorado for Josh Outman. Indians inquired about Outman at the deadline last year and wound up with Rzepczynski instead. There's the second lefty for the pen. Means that the pen is about full with Axford, Shaw, Allen, Rzepczynski, Outman, Pestano, and one or two of Wood/Capps/Lee.

Like Outman. Good splits against LHB and he'll be a matchup LHP here for the most part. Tattooed by righties last season. 3.55 K/BB against LHB. Also controlled through the 2015 season.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Sorry if this was already discussed, if not, hard to believe the Yanks offered Choo $140/7yrs. And then Boras countered wanting more, wow.

Boras overplayed his hand here. Choo is an elite hitter against RHP with a 158 wRC+ since 2008 (only Votto, Miggy, Trout, Fielder, and Ortiz are better in that span). But he's definitely got his problems with lefties. Choo would have incredible value with that short porch in RF in NYC, both hitting and fielding-wise. Other parks can't hide his RF troubles.

If I'm Choo, I'd have taken that deal, even if I had to overrule Boras. Maybe he didn't want to play in NYC with his family in Arizona. I don't know, but I doubt he sees another offer like that.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

peeker643 wrote:Axford deal is a good deal and you should be encouraged.

Mechanical change when he got to the STL and he was TOUGH in the last two months. But the Cards have Motte and Jaime Garcia coming back from DL and they have those good, young arms already, etc.

This works. Also like the fact this is his first foray in AL (not that it means as much as that used to).

Marcum? That's a shot in the dark. I think he's done, done, done and has been for a couple years. Again, velocity drop gives that guy zero margin for error. If that comes back then, maybe....

Spot on. I would add that Axford's immediate numbers scream that "first pitch strikes" will be key. Insert Callaway.

I'm a touch higher on Marcum but not necessarily expecting anything. I'm more interested in whether this Bauer stuff floating around is accurate and we can get him to be our Salazar this season. Marcum I'd take those 8-10 Derrick Lowe starts we had a couple years ago. Just not the last 4-5 that Lowe had. It's a flyer though and one worth taking.

Playing here is the closest thing to heaven. Really, I mean it's amazing to be in a place where the fans truly cherish their football team and stick behind them win or lose. We players love them, too. I feel a sense of accomplishment playing here, we are a special breed of football players with a great opportunity." ~ tOSU LB Brian Rolle

Ubaldo on 1-yr deals is an ideal scenario for any team. On the Indians with our budget... it's heaven.

Like Outman as the 2nd lefty.

I believe I read the Tribe is waiting to hear about Hagadone's possible 4th option year and apparently Cooper has an option available, as well. Leaves a lot of flexibility.

I really think other than Ubaldo that we may be done, other than another outfielder/platoon cheap option.

Playing here is the closest thing to heaven. Really, I mean it's amazing to be in a place where the fans truly cherish their football team and stick behind them win or lose. We players love them, too. I feel a sense of accomplishment playing here, we are a special breed of football players with a great opportunity." ~ tOSU LB Brian Rolle

Yeah, you can forget a Ubaldo return now. It probably wasn't going to happen anyway, but it won't now for sure. That's fine. I'm not bent about it. I'm not entirely sure he's totally fixed (some peripherals scare me) and I wouldn't want to be tied to him for more than a year. I anticipate another minor league signing for the rotation, but I don't see them making a big move. Maybe a one-year rental in February.

Didn't realize that Cooper had an option left. That's helpful. Tito should get his eight-man pen. Which, given the projected rotation, he'll need another arm out there because I don't think we're going to get much length from Salazar and the guys in the mix for the #4 and #5 spots.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe