`David v. Goliath'

Former Gov. Ben Cayetano has cast the Democratic primary between Gov. Neil Abercrombie and state Sen. David Ige as "truly a `David v. Goliath' affair."

Cayetano, a longtime ally of Abercrombie's, has endorsed Ige. In an email to Ige's supporters, the former governor cites public and private polls that show Ige competitive with Abercrombie.

From Cayetano:

By now, our incumbent governor has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on TV and radio ads touting his "accomplishments". You probably will not see a single TV ad from David's campaign. This election is truly a "David v. Goliath" affair.

The question is why do recent polls show David gaining the momentum on the governor? The Feb. 17, 2014 StarAdvertiser poll shows a single digit deficit (NA 47 - (DI) 38 % in the primary, the Feb. 18, 2014 Civil Beat poll shows a 37-37% tie and a recent poll on which I was personally briefed showed David ahead 46-41% in the primary.

To be clear, polls are a snapshot in time, today's results could change dramatically tomorrow. However, polls taken over time often reveal a trend and the polls I mention above indicate a trend favorable to David.

On June 9, David will be holding a stew and rice dinner at Kalani High School. Please join us, listen to David and find out why -- as in the David v. Goliath fable -- David Ige may well be our next governor.

12 Responses to “`David v. Goliath'”

Another example of amateurish polling analysis. That Ben would try to paint a trend across unrelated polls done by different entities and with different methodologies is the definition of political spin. Research pros are cringing everywhere!

Let's not forget. Three years ago, Goliath told all of Hawai`i that us seniors were getting a "free ride," that we should pay more taxes. His analogy was we were riding his canoe and not doing any paddling. He had bills introduced, and had his director of finance give speeches in the community adamantly defending his proposals to increase taxes on seniors. Now three years later, he has a tv ad implying that he he supports seniors, BS and shibai. Goliath is trying to dupe us again. This election is truly a David vs. Goliath, but this Goliath is "more dangerous" than the biblical Goliath because he has mastered the art of double-talk, and he believes we're all too dumb to remember what he said and did in the past.

agree, we must elect Ige, Abercrombie is going to take a 4 year vacation on our dollars since he won't be able to run again. he will have not to account to no one. yes, he talks on both sides of his mouth, sometimes more. he is not to be trusted, he spins facts in his campaign ads. all this new construction is not "his" doing, all were in the planning for years. he is merely following the plan. he is now trying to take credit for it. does he think people are fools? where is the "new day", it will only happen when is not governor, that will be a joyous day too.

I disagree it is amateurish for Cayetano to refer to the various different polls to try to get a sense of where the voters are. I do agree it is preferable to BE ABLE TO rely upon a consistent methodology for tracking voter opinion. But whether one is an amateur or a professional, we have to work with the data available.

The SMS "datum" (not "data") proffered by Bill Kaneko is suspicious for many reasons. First off, it is about 5 weeks old. Why? Is SMS no longer polling, so that figure is the only one Bill has access to? Or is it the only one he has access to which can serve the purpose of re-assuring Abercrombie campaign workers and donors that they should not panic when their encounters with friends, neighbors and co-workers give them the impression that Democratic voters are abandoning the Governor for Ige?

In addition, Bill's "datum" is out of synch with other polls, some of which have been "leaked" as rumors, some of which political insiders have access to. I have been told of a poll from a solid, reputable company, from about the same period as the Abercrombie SMS poll which has three scenarios in the Democratic governor's race:

1) Low voter turn out

2) High voter turnout

3) High Republican crossover voting.

In each of those scenarios, Abercrombie is in trouble. Since you have demonstrated an interest in the methodology, I expect you can figure which scenario is least problematic for the Governor. The others here are probably more interested in trying out clever insults against candidates than engage in something which requires wrestling with facts.

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