Is East Timor's democratic consolidation a crocodile smile?

Damien Kingsbury

When East Timor goes to the polls tomorrow, its people will be deciding not just which party they support or, at a stretch, who will form government. Their choices will also decide whether the country will consolidate its still young democracy and, to some extent, whether it has a viable future.

Based on the outcome of the elections, Australia's remaining peacekeepers and the UN will depart by the end of the year. East Timor will again be responsible for its own fate.

East Timor’s 2012 parliamentary campaign has been so quiet that some observers have openly wondered what they are missing. Photo: REUTERS/Beawiharta

Based on the two presidential elections in March and April, tomorrow's poll is expected to be well organised, transparent and peaceful. That these elections are being largely run by the East Timorese themselves is a positive sign.

Indeed, East Timor's 2012 parliamentary campaign has been so quiet that some observers have openly wondered what they are missing. Even Fretilin, the largest party which some viewed as being confrontational, cancelled its final rally in Dili and instead opted to hand out flowers as a gesture of peace.

In many respects, one could say that, despite the traumatic disruptions of 2006-07, East Timor's experiment with democracy has been a marked success. With its third set of elections behind it on Sunday, it could be reasonably claimed that East Timor has passed the threshold for democratic consolidation.

In part, this can be attributed to the increasing maturity of East Timor's political parties and political debate, as well as to its competent electoral system, established with the assistance of the Australian Electoral Commission, as well as the UNDP. But mostly, East Timor's political success can be attributed to its people, who in a non-compulsory system and in challenging conditions, continue to vote in numbers that surpass better established democracies.

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All of this sounds promising. But East Timor's future, both short and longer term, is less than guaranteed. To start, no single party is expected to receive a simple majority of the vote, so the next government will likely be a coalition, as it was after the 2007 elections.

There are three possible post-election scenarios. The first is that something like the current government is able to be formed around CNRT, the party of Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao. This implies business as usual.

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The second option is that Fretilin will be able to form a majority coalition as a result of current coalition partners' disaffection with Gusmao's highly personalised leadership style. This would likely see a significant shift in economic policy towards a more conservative fiscal strategy of keeping spending within the scope of receipts from petroleum fund investments.

But, perhaps, a Fretilin-led return to government, along with parties that had abandoned Gusmao, could also see the fomenting of anti-Fretilin sentiment of the type that led to the bloody and destructive events of 2006. This is where East Timor's democratic consolidation might find its real test.

The third possible option is that neither Gusmao's CNRT or Fretilin are able to form a coalition. In this case, the recently elected (pro-Gusmao) president, Taur Matan Ruak, should revert to that part of the country's constitution which allows for the appointment of the prime minister from the party with the most votes but without necessarily either holding an absolute majority or being able to form a majority coalition.

This third scenario would very likely lead to a major political confrontation and, quite possibly, military intervention. Some senior military figures have long viewed electoral politics with suspicion, if not disdain.In this scenario, East Timor's democratic consolidation would end. Happily, though, this most negative possibility appears to be less likely as behind-the-scenes political horse trading gets underway.

Assuming East Timor gets past the immediate hurdle of successful elections and government formation, its next biggest step will be improved economic management.

Assuming East Timor gets past the immediate hurdle of successful elections and government formation, its next biggest step will be improved economic management. This includes more sustainable use of its $11 billion petroleum fund, using its interest rather than capital. The petroleum fund finances almost all government and, by extension, almost all non-government economic activity. Related to this, East Timor needs to sort out the dispute with Woodside Petroleum, to access liquid natural gas from the Timor Sea and to further boost its coffers by several billion dollars.

Gusmao has argued that the country desperately needs extensive spending on infrastructure works, which is true, in order to alleviate some of the harshest elements of people's lives. The roll out of the national electricity grid is a major step in that direction, as is the road improvement program. Further decentralisation is also planned, and is much needed to spread wealth beyond Dili.

However, with this massive increase in government spending has come a worrying rise in official corruption and some waste. It is now time for East Timor's next government to clean up corruption, rein in spending and focus on economic sustainability and more equitable economic distribution.

If East Timor does not move in this direction, it won't matter who is in government or how well the democratic process has embedded itself. East Timor will be riddled with corruption, have developed predatory elite, squandered its one opportunity at reasonable long-term wealth and stability and, consequently, plunge back into long-term and probably unresolvable conflict.

Democratic consolidation offers East Timor a chance for the future. But such democratic consolidation is the foundation, not the conclusion, of future stability and prosperity.

Professor Damien Kingsbury is the director of the centre for citizenship, development and human rights at Deakin University. He is coordinator of the Australia Timor-Leste Friendship Network Observer Mission to East Timor's 2012 elections.