SUMMARY...GREATEST TORNADO THREAT NOW THROUGH 22Z APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM ACROSS SRN MS. OTHERWISE...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES WILL PERSIST OVER THE REMAINDER OF WW 32 FROM ECNTRL AND SERN LA INTO SRN AND SCNTRL MS.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS FROM SERN LA INTO SRN MS. STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT ARE SURFACE BASED AND HAVE ACCESS TO MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S. VWP DATA SHOW VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ WITH 400-500 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THE DISCRETE STORMS IN SRN MS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTING THE ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXPAND NWD AND EWD WITH TIME. OTHER STORMS FARTHER WEST WITHIN THE LINE WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING FROM EXTREME SERN MS INTO SWRN AND SCNTRL AL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEFORE 22Z.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE BOOT HEEL OF MS NWWD INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF SRN MS. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS SWRN AL WHERE A 50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS AUGMENTING ISENTROPIC ASCENT NE OF THIS BOUNDARY. THESE INITIAL STORMS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER THAT RESIDES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...RICHER GULF MOISTURE WITH AT LEAST MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NEWD ALONG THE LLJ AXIS...CONTRIBUTING TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE EVENING. LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH TORNADO THREAT LIKELY TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE EROSION OF THE NEAR SFC STABLE LAYER.

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS THROUGH A PORTION OF SERN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 32...

VALID 102147Z - 102315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 32 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER SRN MS...A PORTION OF SERN LA AND EXTREME SWRN AL INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS DISCRETE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS SRN MS. THESE STORMS ARE SURFACE BASED AND ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 500 M2/S2. TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AS THESE STORMS TRAVERSE THE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /500-1000 J/KG/ WARM SECTOR NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST ALABAMA SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 155 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...

DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN MS WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED BY A LONG-LIVED QLCS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING ENEWD THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN AL. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.