Posts tagged ‘Turkey’

With the London Metal Exchange’s ferrous scrap futures contract clearing a record 500,000 metric tonnes last month, we take a closer look at market fundamentals driving up both physical and forward prices for obsolete scrap in recent weeks.

Some commentators and participants still question the extent of China’s supply-side reforms, but the effects — or the perception of the effects — are undoubtedly reverberating throughout the global steel and metals market right now.

China’s net steel exports over January-July were down almost a third year on year at 40.16 million mt, aiding profitability for global producers.

In January, the price of oil was moldering — below $30/b on occasion. Given Russia’s dependence on oil and gas revenue, the budgetary outlook was bleak. Hillary Clinton was going to be elected as the next president of the United States. Sanctions against Russia, imposed over its role in the Ukraine conflict, would continue, and the EU would further frustrate Russian plans for major new gas pipelines and its goal of a total Ukrainian bypass.

Black Friday usually refers to a day where retailers cut prices to stimulate consumer demand ahead of holiday/festival seasons. But it was a different kind of Black Friday for Turkey on November 4 as politics bit into trade and business.

Moving toward the brink of war is about as serious as a geopolitical relationship can get — and that is where Moscow and Ankara found themselves after NATO member Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on the border with Syria on November 24 last year.

We all remember where we were on Sept. 11, 2001. Others are old enough to remember where they were when JFK was shot. These and other historical events changed the world.

Those involved in the commodity markets can’t help but also recall what the events meant for their markets. Whether they were a buyer, seller, trader, broker or agent, they remember where they were and what the market did.

A failed coup attempt launched late last Friday by a wing of the Turkish army has had little impact on the polymer market. So far, Turkey’s petrochemicals sector has not been ruffled by the recent coup attempt and production levels are unaffected according to sources at Turkey’s largest plastics producer Petkim.

Most predictions come with a disclaimer that if some rare, high-profile, unforeseen event were to occur, all bets are off. Usually that disclaimer is unwritten. Sometimes it is written.

Last Thursday a US ferrous scrap exporter was providing a routine market outlook and in an e-mail exchange concluded he was “confident we’ve found the bottom of this market for now (barring any black swan events).”