>> Friday, February 10, 2012

Lots to talk about today, and I encourage you to watch today's edition of the video for the graphics accompanying this discussion.

Clouds increasing today as our next system approaches. Piedmont highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s tonight.

The incoming system will likely bring some sprinkles and a few showers to the foothills and the piedmont tonight, but nothing terribly significant.

However, this system will produce a good amount of snow in many mountain spots across the region, especially tomorrow into tomorrow night in the favored northwest-facing areas. I think many E TN and NC mountain spots could see 2-4" (again, in the favored upslope areas), and when you get up into WV, some spots could exceed 6-8".

Arctic shot...

For the areas east of the mountains, the big weather story this weekend is a big-time shot of cold air. In a winter that hasn't featured much cold air, this is going to get your attention. Many spots in the foothills and piedmont will see their high temps occur before lunchtime tomorrow with falling PM temps.

Winds will be quite significant tomorrow with gusts over 40mph possible at times.....even higher in the mountains.

Piedmont temps by Sunday morning will likely be in the upper teens and lower 20s, and highs Sunday still struggle to (and in some cases, fail to) make it to 40 degrees. Wind chill values Sunday morning will be in the single digits in spots. Lows again Monday morning head into the upper teens and lower 20s.

Next week...

A couple of systems next week. The 0z modeling backed off on the amount of precip in NC with the Tuesday system due to more energy digging into the western US at the same time. Same deal for this system as I mentioned yesterday....if we can get enough precip in here early enough Tuesday morning, a period of snow is possible, but lots if 'ifs' involved there. We might wind up with very little precip at all.

>> Thursday, February 09, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video....a good bit to discuss this morning.

Sunshine returns today with only a few high cirrus clouds at times. Highs will top out in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most in the region.

Our next disturbance will approach the region tomorrow. Out ahead of the system, clouds will be in the increase with highs mainly in the 50s. The Piedmont will then have a brief shower chance tomorrow night into Sunday morning. For a good portion of Tennessee and Kentucky on up into the NC mountains and the Virginias, this will likely be another quick hit of some snow. I can't rule out the chance that a few flakes make it down into the foothills or piedmont Saturday morning, but I wouldn't count on it.

The bigger story this weekend is the cold air. Saturday will be blustery with temps in the 40s and a stiff northwest wind. Lows Sunday and Monday morning will be close to 20 in many piedmont spots, and some locales will likely dip into the teens.

Highs Sunday will struggle to make it to near the 40 degree mark despite full sunshine.

Ski conditions in the mountains this weekend will be very nice, but be aware, it's going to be quite cold. So bundle up before you hit the slopes.

Next week...

Our next disturbance should roll in by Tuesday morning. If the precip arrives early enough Tuesday morning, a brief shot of some snow is possible for parts of the region before temperatures warm. Nothing to get excited about yet though.

>> Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video. Give it a look....

A storm system is moving through our region today, and we will have a good deal of clouds as that occurs. A very brief shower can't be ruled out east of the mountains today, but that chance is limited.

Up in the mountains, look for some snow showers today, and the favored NW-facing spots could see some relatively minor accumulations. Up in the mountains of WV, western MD, and southwest PA, several inches are possible.

Tomorrow will be sunny and fairly cool with piedmont and foothill highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Highs should be in the 50s Friday.

Weekend...

A pretty significant (although transient) shot of cold air will arrive this weekend. Saturday will likely be pretty blustery with cold air advection underway and highs in the 40s. Highs Sunday will likely have a tough time making it into the lower 40s in the foothills and piedmont, and some spots won't make it there. Lows by Sunday and Monday morning look to bottom out in the lower 20s, with some teens possible in the normally colder spots.

In terms of precip, the only chance this weekend would be Saturday morning as the upper level energy is moving through. See the video for more on this. The 0z Canadian was oh so close to popping a more significant storm system, but as it is now, most of the modeling is only indicating some clouds and a few sprinkles or flurries Saturday early morning.

Next week...

We could have a couple of systems next week. Track is uncertain, but at the moment, the Carolinas would appear to likely be on the warmer side of the systems. See the video for more.

>> Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video....

After a rather gloomy period the past few days, sunshine will be back with us today across the region, and along with the sun will come milder temps. Highs today should head toward the upper 50s for most.

Upcoming pattern....

A series of disturbances will head our way in coming days, and whether or not each disturbance produces precip around here will be determined by how much they can amplify as they approach the region. This will be very difficult to forecast more than a couple of days in advance.

The first disturbance moves through tomorrow, and it will likely produce a brief shot of snow up in the mountains and then especially as you head up into the Virginias. East of the mountains in North Carolina, I will mention a brief shower chance, but nothing really significant.

The next disturbance will swing through Saturday. Yesterday, the Canadian model amplified the disturbance enough to generate a significant Gulf low that spread lots of precip up into the region, including a nice snow for the mountains, foothills, and even some of the piedmont Saturday morning.

However, most modeling, including the latest Canadian model, are far less consolidated with the disturbance, and therefore, only generate some very light precip, if any at all, Friday night into Saturday morning.

The next disturbance then moves in sometime later Monday into early Tuesday. We will see how strong that one looks as it nears.

>> Monday, February 06, 2012

Here's today's edition of the video....

Highs today will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s for most around the region under a partly sunny sky. As developing area of low pressure near south Florida will track off of the Carolina coast tonight and will likely spread some light rain into the coastal plain as it does so. However, I expect most of the piedmont to remain dry.

Our next system will then swing through Wednesday with a fairly limited chance of a brief shower.

Weekend potential...

For many, many runs over the past week, the GFS had been indicating the potential for a Gulf low to form and lift up off the Carolina coast this weekend. This occurred as a piece of upper level energy moving from Mexico into the Gulf at least partially phased with a piece of northern branch energy diving south into it.

The European model has never really been too excited about this, but some other foreign modeling has at times.

As of the 0z run today, the GFS is slower with the southern branch energy, and therefore, it entirely misses the phase. This actually put the 0z Euro and GFS in pretty good agreement for the weekend.....some pretty chilly air moving in, but primarily dry outside of a few flurries on the Euro.

The 6z run of the GFS is much the same.....slow with the southern branch energy and missing a phase opportunity.

Now, the players are on the field for a storm system over the eastern US this weekend, but it would take the pieces of upper level energy moving at a different pace than is being indicated by the latest modeling. It is unlikely, but not impossible. Let's see what the next couple of days hold as the models get a better handling of the timing of these disturbances.