411 Question of the Week (11/25)

Which
one offensive player on this early Top 25 ADP list from Mock Draft Central do
you think is ranked too high?

1)Albert Pujols

32 / 32

2)Hanley Ramirez

32 / 32

3)Alex Rodriguez

32 / 32

4)Mark Teixeira

32 / 32

5)Chase Utley

32 / 32

6)Ryan Braun

32 / 32

7)Matt Kemp

32 / 32

8)Miguel Cabrera

32 / 32

9)Prince Fielder

32 / 32

10)Ryan Howard

32 / 32

11)Evan Longoria

32 / 32

12)Tim Lincecum

32 / 32

13)David Wright

32 / 32

14)Joe Mauer

32 / 32

15)Carl Crawford

32 / 32

16)Ian Kinsler

32 / 32

17)Jacoby Ellsbury

32 / 32

18)Mark Reynolds

32 / 32

19)Troy
Tulowitzki

32 / 32

20)Jason
Bay

32 / 32

21)Jimmy Rollins

32 / 32

22)Jose Reyes

32 / 32

23)Victor Martinez

32 / 32

24)Grady Sizemore

32 / 32

25)Joey Votto

As fine a season as Victor
Martinez had, 23rd overall clearly seems overaggressive to me. If he matches
every one of his career highs next season in the basic 5×5 categories, he’ll
hit .316-25-114 with 88 runs and only one steal, exceptional numbers for a
catcher. However, he’ll still be a 31-year-old catcher who doesn’t steal, and
if he only produces, say, 80 percent of those stats, a .295-20-85 season with
80 runs is simply not worth a second round pick in a mixed format. Brian McCann
typically went in the fourth or fifth rounds of most drafts this year and posted
similar numbers, so that’s where V-Mart should be drafted next year, not in the
late second round.

-Cory

With my
second pick in a 12 team league, I just don’t see myself pulling the trigger on
Mark Reynolds. He had an unbelievable 2009, hitting 44 homers and stealing 24
bases, but how is this not a career year? Reynolds was able to get away with
not caring about his epic strikeout totals, but he is allowing himself little
room for error and can easily “go back” to Mark Reynolds 2008 (30 HR 100 RBI 10
SB), which is fine but not second round value. I’ll pass and take Zimmerman,
Sandoval or Ian Stewart later on if I don’t get A-Rod or Longoria in the first
round.

-Siano

As
much as I like Mark Teixeira and appreciate his consistency (six straight
seasons of at least 30 homers and 100 RBIs), I’m not drafting him fourth
overall. He’s not a five-category guy and plays at an offensively stacked first
base position. Grabbing Tex
with a late-first round pick is fine, but in this spot I’ll take Utley or Kemp,
both elite across the board producers, and wait a little longer before
addressing first base. Give me Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez or even Kevin Youkilis
a couple rounds later and I’d be good to go.

-Zach

***Let’s hear your thoughts. Who would you drop down on this list?

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5 Comments

Answer: Apart from the three that were mentioned, I think Jason Bay doesn’t belong at 20. I would rank him behind Justin Upton, Matt Holliday, and Adam Lind for next season. I think playing in Boston has increased Bay’s and Martinez’s perceived value.

Question: Standard 12 team, NFBC style keeper league. We keep five with no value attached My five keepers right now would be Teixeira, Braun, Longoria, Tulowitzki, and Ellsbury. I know this is a killer keeper list but here is the tricky part; I also have Morneau and Sandoval that are worthwhile keepers and to some extent, Carpenter, Broxton, Beckham and McCutchen. Assuming any and all players are available, which player(s) do you think I could trade for to upgrade my current keeper list?
I am also okay with letting Sandoval, Morneau, etc. to go back into the draft to help the less fortunate teams with weak keeper lists.

Happy Thanksgiving and thanks for the endless insight and advice,
Neill

I would have picked the 3 guys pulled out by Cory, Mike and Zakh. Surely Teix has to slip into the slugfest with Miggy, Fielder, Howard & Longo. No shortage of power at the end of the 1st I guess.
Don’t you think this is a little too high on Votto. Great player, great potential, but I wouldn’t want him at the end of the 2nd. I think he should be early 4th, especially with the other talent at 1B.

I’m way down on 1B this year. With Pujols, Tex, Howard, MCab, Fielder, Morneau, Votto, Youk, AGon, DLee, there are at least 10 guys who can put up .280/30/100 numbers. Unless you’re getting the .330 Average of Pujols or some SB, I say sit on 1B to the third round.

Not much to upgrade on that list other than perhaps packaging Tex with someone (maybe Carpenter?) to get Pujols or upgrading at SS from Tulo to Hanley. You’ve definitely got the right five keepers. As much promise as Beckham and McCutchen have, they’re not yet keeper material in this format, especially with no round values attached.
**********************************************************
Kevin,

Totally agree on Votto. Could he achieve second round status by the end of 2010. Yes. But he’s not there just yet. I’ll easily take Morneau or Adrian over him. As for your other comment, I have the most confidence in Tulo (he’s done it before), Morales and Sandoval. I need to see another season from Hill and Zobrist before becoming a believer.

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