These guys would have fit right in here

The executive at Standard & Poor’s was clear: “This market is a wildly spinning top which is going to end badly.”

That sober assessment of certain mortgage-related investments, delivered to colleagues in a confidential memo in December 2006, is now part of a trove of internal e-mails and documents that have come to light in a federal suit against S.& P., the nation’s largest credit ratings agency.

The correspondence, made public in court documents late Monday, provide a glimpse at the inner workings of an institution that the Justice Department says fraudulently inflated credit ratings, with dire consequences for the entire economy. In a series of e-mails, tensions appeared to be escalating inside the firm’s headquarters in Lower Manhattan as it publicly professed that its ratings were valid, even as the home loans bundled into mortgage-backed securities, or M.B.S., were failing at accelerating rates.

One comes from an S.& P. analyst in March 2007 borrowing from the Talking Heads song “Burning Down the House,” creating new lyrics: “Subprime is boi-ling o-ver. Bringing down the house.” S.& P. said prosecutors cherry-picked e-mails and that it would vigorously defend itself from “these unwarranted claims.”

In another 2007 e-mail, an analyst responds to a question about his new job: “Job’s going great. Aside from the fact that the M.B.S. world is crashing, investors and the media hate us and we’re all running around to save face … no complaints.”

Together, the documents show a portrait of some executives pushing to water down the firm’s rating models in the hope of preserving market share and profits, while others expressed deep concerns about the poor performance of the securities and what they saw as a lowering of standards.

The United States attorney general, Eric H. Holder Jr., joined by attorneys general from 16 states, unveiled the case on Tuesday in Washington, accusing S.& P. and its parent, the McGraw-Hill Companies, of intentionally propping up ratings of shaky mortgage investments and setting them up for a crash when the financial crisis struck.

The government is seeking $5 billion in penalties to cover losses to investors like state pension funds and federally insured banks and credit unions. The amount would be more than five times what S.& P. made in 2011.
…
As the housing market deteriorated in early 2007, the gallows humor in the e-mails intensified. Banks that had created mortgage-backed securities were unloading them quickly, to avoid being stuck with any duds.

“That means the market will crash,” one analyst told another in an instant message. “Deals will rush in before they take further loss.”

“Yes,” said the analyst’s colleague. “We should not push criteria,” continued the first, “but we give in anyway. Ahahhahaha.”

About a month later, another S.& P. employee wrote in another instant message, reproduced in the complaint: “We rate every deal. It could be structured by cows and we would rate it.”

In its statement Tuesday, S.& P. said that the cow e-mail “had nothing to do with R.M.B.S. or C.D.O. ratings or any S.& P. model, and the analyst had her concerns addressed with the issuer before S.& P. issued any rating.”

Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who nailed the housing bubble before it burst, was on Bloomberg Television with Trish Regan on Wednesday afternoon to discuss the U.S. housing market.
As usual, Shiller was reluctant to declare that home prices had bottomed. He explained that the housing market is a speculative one and that there’s no telling, which way prices would go tomorrow. He also explained that there wasn’t much reason to believe that home prices would appreciate back to levels seen during the last cycle.

Regan followed up with a question that got Shiller perked up.

“Then why buy a home?” she asked. “People trap their savings in a home. They’re running an opportunity cost of not having that money liquid to earn a better return in the market. Why do it?”

“Absolutely!” Shiller exclaimed. “Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style. All of those are problems. And there’s technical progress in housing. So, new ones are better.”

New applications for unemployment benefits fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000 in the week ended Feb. 2, but the small decline indicates there’s been little change in a modestly improving U.S. labor market. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 371,00 from an original reading of 368,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, based on more complete data collected at the state level. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to drop to 360,000. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, edged down by 2,250 to 350,500, marking a nearly five-year low. The four-week average reduces seasonal volatility in the weekly data. Also, Labor said continuing claims increased by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 3.22 million in the week ended Jan. 26.

The NYT reported on cuts in military spending that Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said could happen if the sequester goes into effect on March 1. The NYT referred to these cuts as “forced,” implying that they were required by the sequester.

This is not accurate. The sequester requires a cut in military spending of approximately 6 percent. The specific cuts chosen presumably reflects the fact that Mr. Panetta views the items to be the least important to the country’s defense. Alternatively, it is possible that Panetta has decided to highlight possible cuts that would provoke the maximum political reaction. In either case the cuts were selected by him, they were not forced by the sequester.
Dean Baker

Wall Street has been bellyaching that the mom and pop investors aren’t buying in. They have no one to dump on this time.

“250k says:
February 7, 2013 at 8:41 am
CNBC having a harder time finding (sane sounding) folks to see an (equity) market downturn. Kass sounds so calm with his bearish sentiment, its almost disturbing.
“

What an @ssclown Dean Baker is, trying his best to reach the notoriety of Krugman. Without getting into whether the sequester is good/bad or my personal opinion… Baker says that calling the cuts “forced” is wrong, and then in the next sentence says they are “required.” I can’t believe he gets paid for his opinion.

18.yome says:
February 7, 2013 at 8:55 am
The NYT reported on cuts in military spending that Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said could happen if the sequester goes into effect on March 1. The NYT referred to these cuts as “forced,” implying that they were required by the sequester.

This is not accurate. The sequester requires a cut in military spending of approximately 6 percent. The specific cuts chosen presumably reflects the fact that Mr. Panetta views the items to be the least important to the country’s defense. Alternatively, it is possible that Panetta has decided to highlight possible cuts that would provoke the maximum political reaction. In either case the cuts were selected by him, they were not forced by the sequester.
Dean Baker

Housing is not an investment – it is a hedge against inflation and a bit of a tax write off

Average folk aka retail investor are crazy, they love to buy high and sell cheap.

Warren Buffet once said something like this. If I buy a suit I love and next day I find out store is now selling them for half price I run back and get two more. A retail investor will be mad the suit they bought is worth less and hem and haw and not buy any more.

Retail investors who got in on Dow 14k in 2007 saw it go to half price in March 2009 and did nothing.
Now Retail investors flocked to market in Jan 2013 with Dow around 13k. Where were they at Dow 8k, 9k, 10k, 11k, 12k?

I remember my buddy’s buying CMGI all the way down to the basement. The ones that made out were the ones that moved to the sidelines at 14K and missed the drop. If we had stalled at Dow 8K for a few years, your model changes. You have to bake in the chance that it it doesn’t come back.

If you bought more than a starter home for use as your primary residence you must have considered it an investment. Also if you are using leverage you must consider it an investment.

Folks I know like inlaws, or even myself who actually own their homes mortgage free, live there and have modest low tax homes are not viewing it as any more of an investment than their station car.

When folks start doing remodeling and talking about ROI, or buying big trade-up homes it is a crazy type investment. As shiller said it is expensive to maintain and hard to keep up.

Folks who levered up rental properties, second homes, mcmansion, cash outs, big mortgages or high taxes etc I dont know what their were thinking. You buy a home for one reason only, cheaper than rent. Therefore a home should increase your cash flow to invest. If you bought a home that was more expensive than rent you must have viewed it as an investment as it makes no sense.

Now if you are rich and buy a condo in Palm Beach or a beach home in Southhampton I am fine with that. It is the mid level mgt I often see stretching for the Upper Saddle River type house to say he arrived who gets laid off at 54 with three kids in HS about to hit college I say what was he thinking. That little ranch he got rid of at 42 to trade up would have been long paid off by now.

I just for instance got a 2 bedroom condo listing today. I am on MLS for new listings. For sale for 409k, I see a couple bought it for 529K in Spring 2007. See a young boys room that has a girls crib also jammed in to it and a diaper table in living room.

What the heck was these people thinking. They were thinking investment cashes. That unit rents for $2,400 a month, has 7K taxes and $600 maint, and judging from pictures, they painted did floors, new appliances etc. Cost to buy, cost to sell added in and who knows a big mortgage. It is crazy. Plus even if they get full asking 409K after realtor fee and closing costs lucky to walk away from table with 370K from their 529K investment.

Obliviously they were investing, if signed a two year rental lease in Spring of 2007 and started house hunting spring 2009 they could have bought a nice single family home for less than cost of rent.

joyce says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:18 am

Then stop comparing it other things every time new housing price/sales come out.

Ben Bernake himself went on 60 minutes at the bottom of market and declared now was time to buy, a few weeks later Obama publicly said same thing. I was on this website in late 2008 till Spring 2011 screaming buy buy buy buy, put junk in your trunk, trups, prefs buy it all, sale of the century. You dont see me doing that anymore. I used to list them every day.
Now folks walk into Fidelity in January 2013 and say what good stocks do you have that are on sale! WTF, that shipped sailed,

12-20008-12-2012 was sale of the century in Stocks, Junk Bonds and Muni Bonds. I have cash piling up like crazy lately with no place to go. Rates are going up stocks fully valued and RE still is overpriced.

Steve says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:33 am

Agreed. Hindsight is 20/20. Clearly we’re all idiots for not buying a ticket for yesterday’s Powerball and selecting the numbers 5 27 36 38 41 (12).

Can’t I just stop (gladly stop) right there and remind you that you purchased your home with a mortgage? or are you able to rewrite history along with leaping tall building in a single bound?

32.JJ says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:37 am
If you bought more than a starter home for use as your primary residence you must have considered it an investment. Also if you are using leverage you must consider it an investment.

We are not all rich and own a restaurant you know. I have to pay for my own food.

joyce says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:43 am

Can’t I just stop (gladly stop) right there and remind you that you purchased your home with a mortgage? or are you able to rewrite history along with leaping tall building in a single bound?

32.JJ says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:37 am
If you bought more than a starter home for use as your primary residence you must have considered it an investment. Also if you are using leverage you must consider it an investment.

interesting data related to Ed bubble. I would not have guessed info systems but I’m not a geek, and I question those percentages for liberal arts and other soft majors. I guess if you are a barista, you are employed.

New England isn’t the midatlantic. They can handle snow storms up there. And every storm since 1978 has been hyped, so if you are salivating at the prospect of the storm turning New Englanders into a multistate region of whiners, I think you will be disappointed. And since we are talking about the People’s Republic of Mass., why would you wish ill on your fellow travelers anyway?

Dropped off the new car at Acura for state inspection and to address missed detailing on our other car. Woman behind counter joked about talking too fast, said it was an Italian trait. We joked about that (being a paesano, I totally got it) and I told her that when I spoke to non-Italians, I had to speak slowly and use small words.

Also dusted off this old joke: How do you get an Italian to shut up? Break his hands.

I’m currently shopping for a mortgage, and wondering if anyone knows of any bank that’s still offering piggybacks.

I have stellar credit (FICO 800+) and plenty of backup assets. I just want to limit the amount of cash downpayment if possible. It’s definitely against my religion to pay PMI, so if I have to I’ll cough up the 20% down.

Every mortgage person I’ve spoken to so far has reacted as though piggybacks have gone the way of the dinosaur, so I thought I’d pose the question to the gurus here.

I’m also open to any recommendations or advice you might have regarding mortgage brokers vs. going direct to bank, etc.

45 – You won’t save any money doing this. If you can find someone to do this without any funny business, the rate on your second will be much higher than you expect. It’s been a while since I’ve heard of someone doing one, I’d wager a guess and say you might expect a 5 handle on the second. So while you won’t be paying PMI, you’ll be paying out more in interest, do the math to see if it’s cheaper for you.

Conventional with 10% down is going to get your the best rates, you don’t need to put down the 20%. If you can do the 10%, I wouldn’t recommend going FHA just to be able to hold 5% more cash, as the cost of the FHA loan is going to make holding that 5% very expensive.

Take the conventional at 10% down and pay PMI. Feel free to divert tax refunds, annual bonuses, garage sale cash and birthday money towards principal in order to pay down to 20% as quickly as comfortable without negatively impacting your cash position. Once you hit the 80% ltv, write your PMI cancellation letter and when it’s off your mortgage payment, send it in anyway to pay down faster.

I initially did the 10% down 30y because I needed cash for renovation, once the reno work was over, I refinanced in order to boost the “V” of the LTV to the point at which I no longer needed to pay the PMI. Worked out for me because I was able to secure a lower rate at the same time.

Quarterly expatriate report now a week late. Will table this until late afternoon on February 15th. If past is prologue, they will release it into the long weekend so that the big uptick in numbers doesn’t make the news.

clot has been on this website since late 2005 screaming die die die die, put bodies in your trunk……

JJ says:
February 7, 2013 at 10:43 am
Ben Bernake himself went on 60 minutes at the bottom of market and declared now was time to buy, a few weeks later Obama publicly said same thing. I was on this website in late 2008 till Spring 2011 screaming buy buy buy buy, put junk in your trunk, trups, prefs buy it all, sale of the century.

Essex #7 :
Shiller: “…Absolutely!” Shiller exclaimed. “Housing traditionally is not viewed as a great investment. It takes maintenance, it depreciates, it goes out of style. All of those are problems. And there’s technical progress in housing. So, new ones are better.”

Commander Bob says:

In the years up to the late 1950′s, most older houses were considered not worth putting money in to fix up; except to rent-out as a business. They were not appreciating at all. It was better to buy new in the brand new developments that were being built all over Bergen County ( and many other NJ counties)
Only a few people realized the value was in the land; after all there was lots of former farm land and large lots to buy up.
What changed this whole picture , believe it or not was the “back to nature”
and the “hippy movement” who got involved in fixing-up these old homes for the most part. After all, they could buy them cheap and find much in the way of used “stuff” to make them livable. One could find much in the way of boarded-up and abandoned buildings all over this area. Everywhere ! From Cold Spring NY, Garrison, Yonkers. Piermont, Suffern and down here in Demarest, Tenafly, Englewood even. I know, because I used to salvage much of the historic items that some of them contained.
Later on, The cost of new homes was getting out of reach for the average family and the conservation/preservation movement ( in which I was part of ) to save historic structures was being ingrained into our culture.
The meshing of all the above contributed to the do-it-yourself mentality and gave the Home Depots of the world the basis of their business …..
Now YOU know the story…(in a nutshell of course..)

All the good plots in Nassau County, Bergan County, Queens and Brooklyn were built on by the 1960s. That also made new homes less desirable, the newest homes in many towns near me 1970s to 2007 are on top of tracks, in flood prone areas or near old landfill or in commercial areas. A brand new house by a grade crossing does not look nice compared to a old house on a nice residential dead end block

58 – You can try calling Bob Farrell at First Valley Funding, if he can’t arrange it, it can’t be done. I wasn’t kidding about the piggyback funny business, so watch out if you do go that route. There are some folks on the blog that might chime in here.

If you do have the backup assets, you can purchase at the 80% and immediately helo the day after closing, and essentially have the same situation. This is probably the easiest way to yield the arrangement you are looking for.

Or if you are into mortgage esoterica, you can always try to find a lender that allows for a recast on bulk payment for a small fee. This would essentially let you reset your monthly payments on a bulk deposit or if the principal deviates significantly from the amortization schedule.

I’ll share my experience here. Maybe I was getting snowed, but in the end I went 80% down and got a decent rate 30yr FRM.

The first house I was in contract to purchase needed work. I was looking for a 80/10/10 to hold some cash back for the reno. I was told that there were two banks in NJ that would go to 90% LTV on a HELOC, and neither of them would do it at closing. To make the deal work, the mortgage broker acted as second lender at closing, with fairly unpleasant terms (8%, 10 yr amortization, balloon payment at 5 years). The pitch was that the broker would immediately refi the second as a HELOC, with prevailing rates in the mid 5′s. I balked, big time, because I didn’t want the risk of unforeseen ‘problems’ leaving me with a hairy second note that would made PMI look cheap.

That contract collapsed when the seller got cold feet post-inspection, we went back into the breech and found something that was move-in condition, and went the full 20% for a plain vanilla deal.

CRANFORD — A 50-year-old New York woman has been arrested on prostitution charges following an undercover police operation targeting a Cranford massage parlor, police said, the second such allegation in three years by township police against Christina Lew.

Lew, of Queens, was arrested Wednesday afternoon by a police detective at Natural Healing, located in a multi-office building on the 300 block of North Avenue East.

“This arrest came about after a two-week investigation,” Police Chief Eric Mason said.

He said the department had received information about “possible illegal activity.” Citing the pending investigation, Mason declined to elaborate.

Lew, along with another Natural Healing employee, was similarly charged in March 2010. Lew’s initial court appearance on the recent arrest was scheduled for today.

Mason called said similar incidents had occurred elsewhere in the township but called them “uncommon.”

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