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NEW DELHI: In a first, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has put a Pakistani diplomat on its ‘wanted’ list and released his photo, seeking information. It said the diplomat — Amir Zubair Siddiqui, who was posted as visa counsellor in the Pakistani High Commission in Colombo — had been included in the list along with two other Pakistani officers for conspiring to launch 26/11-type attacks on US and Israeli consulates besides Army and Navy commands in south India in 2014. NIA said a fourth Pakistani officer posted in the high commission in Sri Lanka was also involved in the conspiracy.

The development comes even as the agency is preparing to send a request to Interpol seeking red corner notices (RCNs) against the Pakistani officers, who have reportedly been repatriated to Islamabad.

While the NIA chargesheeted Siddiqui in February, the other three officers could not be identified. The two, who have been put on the ‘wanted’ list apart from Siddiqui, are a Pakistani intelligence officer who went by his alias ‘Vineeth’, and another official codenamed ‘Boss alias Shah’. This is the first time that India has put a Pakistani diplomat’s name in the ‘wanted’ list or sought a red corner notice against one, an official said.

According to the NIA, the Pakistani officers, while serving in Colombo from 2009 to 2016, planned to attack vital installations in Chennai and other places in south India with the help of their agents. Siddiqui allegedly hired Sri Lankan national Muhammed Sakir Hussaien and others, including Arun Selvaraj, Sivabalan and Thameem Ansari, all of whom were arrested by agencies here.

After recruiting them, Siddiqui and the other Pakistani officers instructed them to collect information about defence installations, nuclear establishments and movement of arms and click photographs of such places, the NIA claimed. The Pakistanis also asked them to steal laptops of senior Indian Army officers and supply fake Indian currency notes (FICN), the agency said. They planned to attack the US consulate in Chennai, the Israeli consulate in Bengaluru, the Eastern Naval Command headquarters in Visakhapatnam and various ports, the NIA claimed.

The US shared key information with India in the case which helped investigators nail the Pakistani officers. The code name for the plot to attack the US consulate in Chennai was ‘wedding hall’ which was to be executed by ‘cooks’, a code for terrorists who were to gain entry from the Maldives into India. Hussaien gave a detailed description of his meetings with various Pakistani officers based in Sri Lanka as well as two ‘fidayeen’ (suicide attackers) whom he had met in Bangkok. ‘Spice’ was the code name for the bombs, which were to beplanted at the consulate.

And DE was saying that after 26/11 the Pak Army was isolated and saw no reason to attack innocent civilians and so they limited their terrorist acts to Kashmir. Bah!

This is the Indian mentality. We spring surprises on our own, discounting the mindless killings that has been going on for decades, and look out for every chance to forgive, forget and move on, while Pak unleashes it's Jihadis every week on Indian soil. Indians keep hoping, it makes them sleep better.

And DE was saying that after 26/11 the Pak Army was isolated and saw no reason to attack innocent civilians and so they limited their terrorist acts to Kashmir. Bah!

This is the Indian mentality. We spring surprises on our own, discounting the mindless killings that has been going on for decades, and look out for every chance to forgive, forget and move on, while Pak unleashes it's Jihadis every week on Indian soil. Indians keep hoping, it makes them sleep better.

Let's clear up this misunderstanding right now. Said they shifted focus to defense targets from civilian. I said this back in 2013 to lemontree when the first attacks on soldiers began. Saying this is how it should go down. Fight those that can respond instead of defenseless civvies. And where did you come up with the forgive, forget & move on strawman. We've seen a constant shifting of focus dating back to at least the 80s. Policy since the 90s has been this is a problem to manage and not a strategic threat. Implication is we absorb attacks and not get overly perturbed with retaliating each and every time. That mindset has yet to completely change even with this govt despite some stirrings here and there

So military camps targeted as the record shows. IAF Pathankot is in Punjab. Does this mean Indian defense establishments elsewhere too ? why not. Chennai & Vishakapatnam is par for the course.

There are some oddball targets in here though which are puzzling.

Nuclear, both Paks & India agree not to attack each others nuclear establishments includes war time too IIANM. AFAIK this is still ongoing. Doesn't mean we let our guard down just that its odd to see it in the target list. The Pak idea is to hit below our threshold, a nuclear establishment and whatever is pushing it big time.

The US & Israeli consulates makes me think this is some outfit gig but no outfit names offered ? why are they on the list even. To show there is domestic resistance to closer relations between India & those two countries. Hah fat chance. Adding Israelis & Americans to the target list helped us in busting this conspiracy.

We now have a case showing consular officers acting as coordinators for fidayeen outfits. Interesting.

As for sleeping better, attacks are under the threshold where we respond. 26/11 is ample proof of this. The Paks are calling the bluff we'd attack if another 26/11 occurred.

Last but not least : Screw the cynics! the nothing changes brigade...

I pointed out things were different with this president because of his tone, BACK IN AUGUST. Then these buggers wanted to know how different. Oh! we're seeing it now aren't we yes? : P

Paks looking to raise foreign exchange through expatriates. India did the same following US sanctions after the nuke test. Roaring success, after raising $4bn in a month and had to discontinue the offer as they met their target. Let's see how much the Paks manage to raise. They need $6bn to cover debt repayment for the present year

Pakistan has stepped up efforts to stave off a foreign exchange crisis, through plans to raise hundreds of millions of dollars both from Pakistani expatriates and wealthy Chinese investors, top officials have told the Financial Times.

Islamabad has been battling for several months to restore its dwindling stocks of foreign currency and hopes to avoid asking for help from the International Monetary Fund through measures including raising US denominated debt from Pakistanis living abroad and a Renminbi-denominated “Panda Bond”.

The plans come after a fall in Pakistan’s foreign reserves this month to about $11.4bn — equivalent to about 10 weeks of imports — down from around $14.1bn in December.

Reserves have been squeezed by a combination of falling remittances from Pakistani migrant workers abroad and rising imports and payments to Chinese companies for infrastructure as part of an ambitious, $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

The World Bank warned in October that Pakistan would need to raise $17bn to cover its debt repayments and the current account deficit this year.

Islamabad argues that affluent Pakistanis abroad can be enticed to support their country, especially if it offers remunerative rates.

“Our expatriates will be offered attractive rates, better than what they will receive elsewhere,” a central bank official in Karachi told the FT on Monday. He said the country would seek to raise up to $1bn from expatriates worldwide, although he declined to reveal the terms of the offer.

Mushtaq Khan, a former chief economic adviser of the central bank, said tapping overseas Pakistanis was a promising idea that could help the country ride out its current woes. “Pakistani expatriates worldwide have a lot of money and we know that expatriates have a strong appetite for Pakistan-related risk,” he said.

Other analysts were sceptical that such a plan would be successful, especially given the country’s current political turmoil, with an election due this year.

A senior government official in Islamabad said that other options include borrowing from Middle Eastern countries or from Chinese commercial banks.

Miftah Ismail, the country’s de factor finance minister, had told the FT that the country was also seeking to issue debt denominated in Renminbi for the first time.

The Panda Bond plans, which are still in the early stages, would be the latest example of Pakistan looking to its northern neighbour as a source of finance. Last year the FT revealed that Islamabad had quietly borrowed more than $1bn from Chinese state-backed institutions as its current account deficit worsened, triggering fears that Pakistan was becoming overly dependent on the support of Beijing.

Mr Ismail said:*“We have never issued a Panda Bond before, but I am interested in doing so. We are just looking at the rules and requirements. I am interested in doing it in the next financial year — I don’t know if the timing will work out for that though.”

Mr Ismail, the financial adviser to Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, said the government had not decided the amount it wanted to raise. Asked to comment on press reports that it could be around $1bn, he said:*“$1bn is a very nice, round number that anybody can just float but I’ve really not even started thinking about it.”

In recent months, ministers have allowed the Pakistani rupee to depreciate nearly 10 per cent against the dollar.*

“The rupee has fallen significantly in four months,” said Mr Ismail.*“In my opinion that probably is enough right now to change the direction of the current account deficit.

“This will hopefully increase in double digits my exports and my foreign remittances and also stem the tide of imports or slow down imports and I think that should be more than enough for now.”

Pakistanis should be concerned about the growing rift between the US and Pakistan that has led – for the first time in Pakistan’s history – to restrictions being imposed on Pakistani diplomats within the United States. Hiding our heads like ostriches will not make this problem simply go away.

On April 12, 2018, the Trump administration notified Pakistani authorities that “diplomats at their embassy in Washington and at consulates in other cities will not be able to travel beyond 40km from their posts without permission. The notice, shared with the Pakistan Embassy in Washington and sent also to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad, indicates that the restrictions could be imposed from May 1, if certain issues remained unresolved.”

Five days later on April 17, 2018 a top official of the State Department confirmed that this was true. “A senior official of Trump Administration has confirmed that Pakistani diplomats cannot move without seeking prior permission from the concerned authorities in the State Department. In an interview with VOA’s Uzbek service, Thomas Shannon, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, said this restriction was placed in response to the same conditions Islamabad has imposed on US diplomats in Pakistan.”

According to this notification, “diplomats will need to apply for permission at least five days ahead of an intended travel outside the imposed 25 miles radius. In their discussions with their Pakistani counterparts, US officials also point out that Islamabad has already imposed similar restrictions on American diplomats in Pakistan, who are not allowed to visit the tribal belt or Karachi. Pakistani officials, however, argue that those are not restrictions but security measures intended to protect American diplomats. They point out that the State Department too does not allow its diplomats in Pakistan to visit Fata, Karachi and certain other places in Pakistan out of security concerns.”

Further, “the US warning is linked to a larger visa dispute. Last month, Pakistan received a letter from the State Department complaining that while Americans issue two-year visas to Pakistani diplomats, US diplomats only get one-year visas, forcing them to get their visas renewed every year during their usually three-year postings. The State Department complained that Pakistan was also very restrictive in issuing visas to other US officials and traders and warned that it could reciprocate the measure for Pakistani officials and citizens. The State Department maintained that Pakistanis were usually issued five-year US visas, but US officials and businessmen only got single-entry visas of three-month duration.”

Pakistan’s isolation is growing and yet there is no attempt to change policy in order to prevent this further isolation. Such restrictions inside the United States were always for countries like erstwhile Soviet Union and Cuba or North Korea, not countries that claim ally status like Pakistan.

He continued: “Militant organisations are active. Call them non-state actors, should we allow them to cross the border and kill 150 people in Mumbai? Explain it to me. Why can’t we complete the trial?” — a reference to the Mumbai attacks-related trials which have stalled in a Rawalpindi anti-terrorism court.

“It’s absolutely unacceptable. This is exactly what we are struggling for. President Putin has said it. President Xi has said it,” Mr Sharif said. “We could have already been at seven per cent growth (in GDP), but we are not.”

Pakistan expects to obtain fresh Chinese loans worth $1-2 billion to help it avert a balance of payments crisis, Pakistani government sources said, in another sign of Islamabad’s growing reliance on Beijing for financial support.

Lending to Pakistan by China and its banks is on track to hit $5 billion in the fiscal year ending in June, according to recent disclosures by officials and Pakistan finance ministry data reviewed by Reuters.

The new Chinese loans that are being negotiated will help bolster Pakistan’s rapidly-depleting foreign currency reserves, which tumbled to $10.3 billion last week from $16.4 billion in May 2017.

The talks come only weeks after a group of Chinese commercial banks lent $1 billion to Pakistan’s government in April.

The reserves decline and a sharp widening of Pakistan’s current account deficit have prompted many financial analysts to predict that after the general election, likely in July, Islamabad will need its second International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout since 2013. The last IMF assistance package was worth $6.7 billion.

“I think this month we will get that $1-2 billion,” said a senior Pakistan government official, saying the funds will come from Chinese state-run institutions.

A second government official confirmed Pakistan was in “sensitive” talks with Beijing over extra funding for up to $2 billion.

Although Pakistan’s economic growth has soared to nearly 6 percent, the fastest pace in 13 years, the structural problems with the economy are coming to the fore. It is similar to 2013, when foreign currency reserves dwindled and Pakistan narrowly escaped a full-blown currency crisis.

“The current situation appears to be a replica of what we experienced in 2013, albeit on a slightly larger scale,” said Yaseen Anwar, who was the governor of the central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), back in 2013.

In the six months to end of March, Pakistan took bilateral loans worth $1.2 billion from China, according to the Pakistan Finance Ministry document reviewed by Reuters. During this period the government also borrowed about $1.7 billion in commercial loans, mostly from Chinese banks, finance ministry officials added.

In April, Pakistan’s central bank borrowed another $1 billion from Chinese commercial banks to buffer its reserves, State Bank of Pakistan Governor Tariq Bajwa told the Financial Times (FT). A spokesman for the central bank told Reuters the FT report was accurate.

So far, all the measures appear to have had a limited impact on Pakistan’s economy and foreign exchange reserves continue to plummet.

The collapse of the reserves is mainly due to the central bank’s efforts to maintain an artificially strong rupee over the past few years, analysts say. The currency is now trading at about 115.50/116 to the U.S. dollar, down 9.8 percent in last six months after two separate devaluations since December.

In the past three weeks, reserves have declined by $1.2 billion and now stand at two months worth of import cover.

“This new (Chinese) money is a temporary bridge until August or September, when a new government will come into office and the country will likely opt for a new IMF programme,” said Saad Hashmey, chief economist at brokerage house Topline Securities.

Pakistan may also seek help from Saudi Arabia. The Middle Eastern ally loaned $1.5 billion to Pakistan in 2014 to shore up its foreign currency reserves.

May seek ? i'm surprised they haven't already got anything from the Arabs

Let's clear up this misunderstanding right now. Said they shifted focus to defense targets from civilian. I said this back in 2013 to lemontree when the first attacks on soldiers began. Saying this is how it should go down. Fight those that can respond instead of defenseless civvies.

Yes, my bad. But the article I posted has this -

After recruiting them, Siddiqui and the other Pakistani officers instructed them to collect information about defence installations, nuclear establishments and movement of arms and click photographs of such places, the NIA claimed. The Pakistanis also asked them to steal laptops of senior Indian Army officers and supply fake Indian currency notes (FICN), the agency said. They planned to attack the US consulate in Chennai, the Israeli consulate in Bengaluru, the Eastern Naval Command headquarters in Visakhapatnam and various ports, the NIA claimed.

Attacking the part in bold will start a war that the Paks cannot manage.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

And where did you come up with the forgive, forget & move on strawman.

Don't get angry. :D
It was directed at Congress and some jobless BJP stalwarts of present day such as Yashwant Sinha, as well as FAbdullah and his son, the yellow journalist brigade such as BDutt, SGhose and her husband. Having said that, you have to admit we do sleep better, else Pak would have paid with Balochistan. The Pak Army & the notorious ISI have killed 1000s of Indians, both civilians and military, 166 in Mumbai alone. 1000s more in Afghanistan.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

We've seen a constant shifting of focus dating back to at least the 80s. Policy since the 90s has been this is a problem to manage and not a strategic threat. Implication is we absorb attacks and not get overly perturbed with retaliating each and every time. That mindset has yet to completely change even with this govt despite some stirrings here and there

Agree. Retaliation this time with Doval as the NSA has increased. Nothing much will come out of it though. Killings would continue on both sides, until Pak stops terrorism as a state policy.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

So military camps targeted as the record shows. IAF Pathankot is in Punjab. Does this mean Indian defense establishments elsewhere too ? why not. Chennai & Vishakapatnam is par for the course.

Show me someone else who thinks like that apart from you, someone from the military or a spook.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

There are some oddball targets in here though which are puzzling.

Nothing is puzzling. Maximum damage, maximum glory to the Pak islamists, 72 homos in the after-life, big bang, Kashmir in international discussion again, Pak Army forces their pet PM to run to US President to seek forgiveness from Indian Military's wrath. It an old script.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

Nuclear, both Paks & India agree not to attack each others nuclear establishments includes war time too IIANM. AFAIK this is still ongoing. Doesn't mean we let our guard down just that its odd to see it in the target list. The Pak idea is to hit below our threshold, a nuclear establishment and whatever is pushing it big time.

Pak is known for keeping its promises? It's a damn terrorist country. What did you expect?

Btw, this treaty was signed by Foreign Secretaries of both countries in Islamabad on Dec 31, 1988, witnessed by Rajiv & Benazir. It's name was - Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

The US & Israeli consulates makes me think this is some outfit gig but no outfit names offered ? why are they on the list even. To show there is domestic resistance to closer relations between India & those two countries. Hah fat chance. Adding Israelis & Americans to the target list helped us in busting this conspiracy.

We now have a case showing consular officers acting as coordinators for fidayeen outfits. Interesting.

Nothing happens without the Pak Army COAS and the DG ISI not knowing. It's their gig, it's their group. Read the news again, US shared key information and it helped us nail the Pak officers.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

As for sleeping better, attacks are under the threshold where we respond. 26/11 is ample proof of this. The Paks are calling the bluff we'd attack if another 26/11 occurred.

Last but not least : Screw the cynics! the nothing changes brigade...

Don't follow.

Originally Posted by Double Edge

I pointed out things were different with this president because of his tone, BACK IN AUGUST. Then these buggers wanted to know how different. Oh! we're seeing it now aren't we yes? : P

He's a transactional President. He doesn't hate anyone or any ideology. If he sees money, he is happy. I would wait.

Show me someone else who thinks like that apart from you, someone from the military or a spook.

Only thing stopping them attacking defense establishments further south is logistics. So they hit closer to their border.

Nothing is puzzling. Maximum damage, maximum glory to the Pak islamists, 72 homos in the after-life, big bang, Kashmir in international discussion again, Pak Army forces their pet PM to run to US President to seek forgiveness from Indian Military's wrath. It an old script.

Why go all the way to Chennai to hit the US consulate there are others further north, same with Israeli consulates. Unless they are preparing sleepers to act later. Still, these are hardened locations with surveillance.

Pak is known for keeping its promises? It's a damn terrorist country. What did you expect?

Btw, this treaty was signed by Foreign Secretaries of both countries in Islamabad on Dec 31, 1988, witnessed by Rajiv & Benazir. It's name was - Agreement on the Prohibition of Attack against Nuclear Installations and Facilities.

Yet they still hit only under our threshold, see the clip i posted of the army chief in the stone pelting thread

China has asked Pakistan to explore ways of relocating Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) chief Hafiz Saeed to a West Asian country in response to mounting international pressure to act against him for his links with terror groups.

Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested this course of action — allowing Saeed to live a quiet life in a West Asian country — to Pakistan Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on the sidelines of the Boao Forum in China last month.

Saeed, who met some journalists over Iftar on Tuesday in Karachi, refused to believe that China would want a ban on him or to see him out of the country. However, he admitted that China would act as a super power and dictate to Pakistan.

The JuD was reported by Indonesia after the authorities detected some money channelled through the country by the outfit. Indonesia notified the FATF.

A Presidential Ordinance was issued to freeze all assets of Hafiz Saeed, linked to the JuD and its charity arm, Falah-i-Insaaniyat Foundation.

Interestingly, the JuD was not put in Schedule 1 of the Anti Terrorism Act under which the leaders of a banned organisation must be arrested.

An Interior Ministry source said a formal notification of its placement on Schedule I was held back. “Without the notification, the organisation will not be formally admitted as a defunct organisation,” he said. Another clue that the JuD and the FIF were not banned as claimed by the government is the list of banned organisations by the National Counter Terrorism Authority.

At the meeting, Pakistan will automatically go onto a grey list unless it is able to provide evidence of a genuine crackdown on two sets of militants - groups based in Punjab province led by Lashkar-e-Taiba who attack Indian targets across the border in Indian-administered Kashmir; and the multiple groups operating out of western Pakistan, which attack Afghan and US forces in Afghanistan and are led by the Taliban and the Haqqani group.

In late April representatives of more than 70 countries who make up FATF met in Paris and pledged to "fully criminalise" terror financing and end fundraising by the Islamic State and other groups. Privately, Pakistan was put on the mat for its continued alleged tolerance for terrorist groups and given until June to clean up its act.

In mid-May Pakistan submitted to FATF some new measures it would undertake to tighten the screws on extremists. These steps - now under consideration and details of which remain confidential - may not be sufficient to satisfy FATF, warn senior Western diplomats in Pakistan.

Meanwhile the government has still not implemented a disarmament and deradicalisation programme for militants, which was promised four years ago following the Peshawar school massacre. In official circles there is now talk of "mainstreaming militants", which means allowing them to take part in the political process.

The FATF review process also includes an assessment of whether Pakistan is regulating international NGOs appropriately - FATF is trying to stop governments using counter-terror justifications for restricting NGOs. Pakistan recently ordered some 22 international NGOs to shut down and leave the country, claiming they were a security risk.

It is high time that Pakistan ended its long-running dependency on militants to sustain its foreign policy in the region. Islamist extremists have been threatening Pakistan for years. Western pressure has not worked and some diplomats hope China can play a more assertive role in getting Pakistan to comply.

If Pakistan fails to comply with FATF it will face a much more belligerent and friendless international community where it is possible that even allies like China no longer help to bail out Pakistan. China, too, has a great deal at stake in Pakistan's future and it certainly needs to exercise the influence it has in Islamabad.

Pakistan submitted its action plan with the FATF’s Asia Pacific group in a meeting held in Bangkok earlier this week but global body expressed its dissatisfaction, raising objections to take concrete steps against LET, JuD and FIF proscribed by the UN Security Council, revealed one of senior officials who attended this important meeting.

The Bangkok meet asked Pakistan to put a new comprehensive action plan within two weeks, alerting that the country might end up on the blacklist of the countries’ failing to prevent terror financing, he added.

ISLAMABAD: The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global terror-financing watchdog, has alerted Pakistan to take concrete steps against groups allegedly linked to Hafiz Saeed to avert possible tough sanctions in June this year.

Pakistan submitted its action plan with the FATF’s Asia Pacific group in a meeting held in Bangkok earlier this week but global body expressed its dissatisfaction, raising objections to take concrete steps against LET, JuD and FIF proscribed by the UN Security Council, revealed one of senior officials who attended this important meeting.

The Bangkok meet asked Pakistan to put a new comprehensive action plan within two weeks, alerting that the country might end up on the blacklist of the countries’ failing to prevent terror financing, he added.

“Yes, FATF seeks new comprehensive action plan from Pakistan,” confirmed Finance Minister Miftah Ismail. “This plan would be submitted with global terror financing watchdog between June 8 and 11,” he told this correspondent on Friday.

They want us to go hard on the LeT, JuD and FIF and other proscribed organisations, the finance minister said that the watchdog wanted comprehensive measures to curb terror financing of such militant groups, he said. “Pakistan’s new action plan would be discussed in Paris meet on June 23,” Finance Minister Miftah Ismail added.

The government submitted its action plan on April 25 in response to FATF’s warning to put Pakistan on countries’ grey-list in February this year, informed officials said. “If the country’s new action plan on fighting terrorism financing does not deliver in June 23 Paris meet, Pakistan may be put on FATF’s black-list which would unnerve the country’s economy,” added one of senior officials who was engaged in preparing Pakistan’s response at Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

A high-powered delegation was sent to Bangkok for briefing the forum about the steps taken by Islamabad against money laundering and terror financing. “We presented our point of view before all the stakeholders as a last-ditch effort to avoid falling into the grey list by next month — but we were asked to come up with new comprehensive plan, official revealed that “we informed stakeholders that the Finance Bill 2018 and some other piece of laws helped the country to curb money laundering under mutual assistance agreement with OECD and other bilateral countries.”

The Japanese are no longer interested in Chabahar. Japan wants to use its assets to check Chinese expansion. So it doesn’t make sense to place resources in a questionable business environment when doing so runs the risk of running afoul of U.S. financial sanctions.

Is it possible to establish some sort of insurance program that would protect investors? At the end of the day, we have a collective action problem as all these different countries are hedging against each other and uncertainty about American leadership and policies. The upside of countries gravitating toward China is the possibility of protecting Chabahar. However, unless India can persuaded that this is a good thing, this may rile India even though it does not have the assets to make Chabahar sustainable on its own. India has a lot at stake, which may make India more inclined to be competitive rather than cooperative with China.

China is needed in Afghanistan for other reasons. Namely, Afghanistan needs a railway. There are already railheads in Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan to which Afghanistan can link up. This means that Afghanistan is close to being connected with rail lines to these neighboring countries. But what country is both capable of building such a railway and adequately risk acceptant to consider doing so? China is probably the only possibility. However, such a proposition will most certainly disquiet India.

Afghanistan needs the two biggest actors, China and India, to forswear their competition elsewhere to cooperate there. This is a hard ask of New Delhi.

In earlier U.S. Iran sanctions legislation, there was the possibility of an exception specifically written in for “reconstruction assistance or economic development for Afghanistan.” Under this provision, an exception could have been made for Chabahar if one were to tie it to needs in Afghanistan.

This is a superb point, which I forgot to note. In principle this is correct. But to make the argument that Chabahar should get an exception to advance goals in Afghanistan would require the Trump regime to muster political will and expend political capital. I think a successor to Obama would have been willing to do this. But, let’s be frank: the Iran policy pursued by the Trump regime is not driven principally by U.S. security interests. Instead, Trump is pursuing Israel’s interests as a part of his fervent appeals to the American evangelical voter. Obama was more willing to confront Israel. Trump has gone out of his way to appease Israel largely for U.S. domestic political concerns. If Trump or his policy team cannot look at a map, evaluate the data on terrorism and nuclear proliferation, and conclude that working with Iran to secure Afghanistan is far less deleterious to U.S. interests than working with Pakistan, I have a difficult time imagining how anyone in his administration would carve out an exception for Chabahar under the grounds that doing so would be advantageous to our efforts in Afghanistan. But yes, in principle, you are correct.

it remains unclear how negative Pakistan’s placement on the grey list will eventually turn out to be.

There is, however, no debate that it is indeed a negative. Here are some of the ways in which grey listing could affect Pakistan.

Pakistan’s banking channel could be adversely affected as it is inevitably linked with the international financial system.

The impact on Pakistan’s economy could be relatively wide, touching imports, exports, remittances and access to international lending.

Foreign financial institutions may carry out enhanced checking of transactions with Pakistan to avoid risk of violations pertaining to money laundering and financing of terrorism.

They may ask more questions and apply more checks. Some such institutions may also avoid dealing with Pakistan’s financial system altogether.

Another affectee is the sentiment of foreign investors. That Pakistan has been placed on the grey list has been covered in international news media and the fact will not go unnoticed by potential investors. Stock prices at Pakistan Stock Exchange appear to have already felt this impact.

Perhaps the biggest threat from being placed on the grey list is Pakistan could be pushed further down to the black list.

This black list comprises Iran and North Korea, the two countries West loves to hate. But placing Pakistan on the black list is probably a step too far to be on the cards at this stage.

These potential implications of grey listing need to be balanced against past experience.

Pakistan was on FATF grey list from 2012 to 2015, when it completed an IMF programme and also raised funds from international bond markets.

The country has also survived far graver financial challenges, such as those posed by nuclear explosions in 1998

Is this a financial or a political issue?

If the commentary by international news media is any indicator, Pakistan’s placement on FATF’s grey list is far more political than financial in nature.

It is being seen as one of the several ways the US is attempting to pressure Pakistan to “do more” on issues related to terrorism.

The long-winded, jargon-filled recommendations and methodology used by FATF leave plenty of flexibility for the team of assessors to exercise their “informed judgement”.

That is, based on the same information, assessors could reach more than one judgement, including the one sought by the politically powerful.

By placing Pakistan on FATF’s grey list, US has indeed demonstrated its intent to turn up the pressure on Pakistan.

US is also a major financier of FATF and the current president of FATF is an Assistant Secretary from the US Department of the Treasury who heads the Office of Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes.

If US can have Pakistan placed on the grey list, it may also make it difficult for Pakistan to exit the list.

Bottom line is that FATF’s grey listing of Pakistan should not be looked at in isolation but placed in the larger picture of US-Pakistan relations that have had many ups and downs.