After six NHL seasons of being a loyal and productive company man with the Edmonton Oilers, doing his job and never, that I've heard, uttering so much as a discouraging word about an employer that's been a gong show more often than not during his tenure, Sam Gagner is gonna get paid. And he should.

The only questions about the pending pay day are how much Gagner will get and in what increments he'll get it as he and the Oilers stare down a scheduled arbitration hearing Monday morning – a hearing that'll likely never convene.

If, in the highly unlikely event the hearing does go ahead, or if the sides agree on a one-year pact before the hearing for, say, $4.75 million, then Gagner will become the youngest UFA in NHL history at the end of next season, meaning the Oilers will simply have delayed the day he cashes in, here or elsewhere.

The way I see it, given what GM Craig MacTavish has already said about wanting to lock up Gagner long-term, what makes sense is announcing a new multi-year deal before the hearing, having a nice big group hug as a photo-op and then moving on.

If that's what the Oilers want, as I suspect it is, and they want to buy Gagner's 2013-14 RFA season and, say, four UFA years, then it's going to cost them $25 million, minimum, to do it. My, how that'll make the Gagner haters squirm.

ALL THE FINE PRINT

So, after six seasons toiling for an organization that's been a laughing stock most of the time, and that's missed the playoffs seven straight years, Gagner's in a rare position at the age of just 23. Coming off a one-year contract that paid him $3.2 million, he can negotiate a one-year deal with the Oilers or take one from an arbitrator and then be an UFA going into 2014-15.

The question about what Gagner is worth to the Oilers, and on the open market, has been a topic of hot debate, especially in the last couple of days. I see it one way – my interpretation of the market says it'll take that $5 million per. Others, like Jason Gregor, see it differently.

All kinds of "comparables" have been thrown out in argument of one number or another that fall well outside the relatively narrow scope of comparables in arbitration hearings as defined by the CBA. Some people look only at points. Others argue Gagner's worth based on size or his place in the pecking order in Edmonton – practical issues, but not necessarily issues that matter even a bit in an arbitration hearing or at the bargaining table.

The most comprehensive analysis I've seen on the subject has been done by Tyler Dellow and can be found here. My argument as to Gagner's worth is far less structured and, like that of many fans, much of it falls into the category of not mattering a bit in an arbitration hearing or at the bargaining table, as well.

THE WAY I SEE IT

To repeat my opening sentence, I view Gagner as a loyal and, yes, productive company man who brings exactly the kinds of qualities that MacTavish has said he values. Gagner's a good, not great, player. He's a good teammate. He's a player who cares about the guy next to him and has shown he'll stand up not only for himself, but his teammates as well. He's a good pro.

I've always found Gagner mature beyond his years. When he performs well, he downplays it or shares credit with others. When he stinks, and there's been more than one night when he has, Gagner owns it and makes no excuses. That holds true on the record and off it. Often, those are two different stories.

I haven't seen Gagner bristle once as younger players like Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Nail Yakupov have come in with more fanfare and taken over the marquee. Some other veterans have. Not Gagner, who isn't exactly without pedigree as a sixth overall pick.

When I add in some of the intangibles I'm talking about to comparisons I see in the piece Dellow wrote, I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Gagner is a reasonable buy at $1 million less a season than Hall and Eberle just signed for. That means $5 million a season.

Ka-ching. Pay the man.

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.

"In my earlier comment, I allowed $500K for the "intangibles" you're promoting but, based on production and Gagner's lack of other "intangibles" like faceoff prowess, defensive play and inability to win puck battles, Gagner is NOT a $5M player.

I expect the Oilers will pay him that much and that will be just one more small reason they remain uncompetitive."

This is the kind of automatic out you leave yourself time after time. You state your case -- sometimes reasonable, often not. "Sam isn't a $5 M player." If the Oilers pay him that, they're fools and they've overpaid. They don't understand the market as well as you do.

If Sam takes a 1-year-deal or is handed one in an arb hearing and then becomes an UFA, the GM who gives him $5MX5 or slightly more -- and somebody will -- is a boob who doesn't get it either. You're never wrong, this way, are you?

At 30 years old, Weiss is a finished product who has scored .60 PPG in his career playing 17:59 a night on a team that's been far better than the teams Gagner has been on.
Gagner, 23, has played 58 seconds less per game on a team that's been the dregs of the league since he broke in and has scored .62 PPG. He's not all he can be yet.

Also, even assume that they're exactly the same player. What's likely to be better? Ages 24-28 on a five year deal or ages 30-34 on a five year deal? Everyone seems to ignore that UFAs are almost always guys on the downslope and Gagner isn't.

Well done. DSF wins this battle of reasoning in a landslide. Like you mentioned, with overpays being the constant, the Oilers will never have the necessary depth to become/remain competitive. Perhaps Bettman could allow for teams in these B and C markets one marquee contract to not count against the cap, in an effort to level the playing field.

I'm hoping this enters the room on Monday in order to force a decision. This will be the beginning of the end for Sam here in Edmonton. Give him the one yr 5.5 kiss of death deal. With the holes in his game, he'll suffer the same fate as 10 and 83.

Even if I did believe Weiss was a better player right now (he had 4 points in 17 games last year), most players best years are between 23-28 (about). Even DSF couldn't argue Gagner in his prime isn't better than Weiss near the end of his career.

I'd be willing to bet Gagner outscores Weiss over the next five years, and by a reasonably substantial margin in years 4 and 5.

"When I add in some of the intangibles I'm talking about to comparisons I see in the piece Dellow wrote, I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Gagner is a reasonable buy at $1 million less a season than Hall and Eberle just signed for. That means $5 million a season."

Please, pay attention before going off as you tend to do..

The "doesn't complain" reference you took out of context isn't a reason to pay Gagner $5 million. Other factors and the circumstances in this case will likely put him at or over that on their own. My point is, he's also a solid guy and has been a loyal player who wants to stay here, which counts for something, whether you choose to recognize it or not.

I read the Dellow piece quite a while ago and he has some salient points.

The problem is, the Oilers overpay almost everyone and, at some point, need to find value contracts, not pay every player slightly more than market value.

Over paying 5 players by $500K means you can't bring in another $2.5M player when you need one.

Death by paper cut.

Being a "solid guy" and "wanting to stay here" is nothing more than Edmonton's inferiority complex and, while it's a noble sentiment I suppose, it is also very poor cap management.

In my earlier comment, I allowed $500K for the "intangibles" you're promoting but, based on production and Gagner's lack of other "intangibles" like faceoff prowess, defensive play and inability to win puck battles, Gagner is NOT a $5M player.

I expect the Oilers will pay him that much and that will be just one more small reason they remain uncompetitive.

"In my earlier comment, I allowed $500K for the "intangibles" you're promoting but, based on production and Gagner's lack of other "intangibles" like faceoff prowess, defensive play and inability to win puck battles, Gagner is NOT a $5M player.

I expect the Oilers will pay him that much and that will be just one more small reason they remain uncompetitive."

This is the kind of automatic out you leave yourself time after time. You state your case -- sometimes reasonable, often not. "Sam isn't a $5 M player." If the Oilers pay him that, they're fools and they've overpaid. They don't understand the market as well as you do.

If Sam takes a 1-year-deal or is handed one in an arb hearing and then becomes an UFA, the GM who gives him $5MX5 or slightly more -- and somebody will -- is a boob who doesn't get it either. You're never wrong, this way, are you?

Sam will get $5M per season in any multi-year deal.

I don't doubt that he will.

The issue is whether or not the Oilers should be the team to overpay him.

What you haven't addressed is that virtually every successful team has players on value contracts and, when Hopkins, Yakupov and Schultz, who are all likely "better" players than Gagner want to get paid, the Oilers will be hooped.

I've been reading comments on this site for a while and I can't tell if DSF is an Oiler fan who says what he says because the team has been bad for so long and he's bitter or if he's a troll making comments for attention.

deal sam,his value is high,throw in a prospect and draft pick to get another piece of the puzzle.I like Sam and he has gave evrything to the oilers,i just dont see him being here when this team is a playoff team.

Sounds easy. What buttons on the controller does MacTavish have to tap to make this happen?

That may not be such a bad thing. The Oilers have been guilty of some redonkulous contracts in recent years. Lowe has given core type contracts to support type players, trying to pass them off as leaders, and we sure know now, they weren't. Oilers received a bag of pucks for Horcoff, and a soon to be a similar return for Hemsky. Gagner's in this same boat, he's not able to lead with the holes in his game.

MacTavish is going to make a decision here, and that decision is between RNH, and Gagner. Edmonton can't afford to have two centers without a complete game down their middle. Hopkins is effective and getting better at both ends, so there's really no decision to be made there. It's probably a blessing in disguise the Oilers hands are being forced on this Gagner issue now. The last thing they can afford now is to have yet another support type getting paid as a leader on this hockey club.

MacTavishs kind words in regards to Gagner this summer, we're obviously made to see what kind of value he has on the market. He's found out, the rest of the league see him as a support type as well. If it were up to me, i'd let him walk after the arbitrators decision. Use those funds more wisely, let Sam line up and play against you, and eat him for dinner like Steve Ott often has. Now if we could only find a way, to make Steve Ott an Oiler.

I know sounds easy,and mabey there are no deals to be made,but this team needs a different center behind rnh to be competitive.5.5 mill/year is to high when rnh contract is going to need to be signed,along with yak and shultz,mabey there is no trade but would you be comfortable with that money for sam?(what would you think he is worth?)

Asking $5.5M doesn't mean getting $5.5 M.

Doesn't matter what I "think" Gagner or anybody else is worth. The market is the market and, given the UFA years the Oilers or another team are going to buy now or a year from now, Gagner is going to get $5M a season.

I will say this, though: I find it amusing in the extreme how polarizing Gagner is.

"I'd take Gagner at $4.5 M, but anything more than that and they should trade him . . . blah, blah." Fiscal responsibility, eh? Who can argue with that? After all, Yak and blah, blah blah will need contracts . . ." It's a nice argument of convenience. Where's the cry for value contracts when some roster fringe player gets $100,000 or $200,000 more than he should? Look at the money wasted on marginal players and flat-out busts in recent years. It adds up. Whatever, lets get tough, let's make a stand with Gagner.

"Gagner's a good player but the Oilers can't succeed with him and RNH as the first two centres. They're too small . . ."

Size is the issue? Size hasn't stopped Gagner from dropping his gloves (and taking a beating or two) when he feels somebody has taken a liberty with him or a teammate. Better to get a player who is six-foot-two and 215 pounds. That's the ticket. How many big guys who play small have been through here in the past six years? I'll take a small guy who plays big over a big guy who plays small any day.

Sam's not a great player. He's a good player. He has shortcomings and attributes not reflected statistically. Don't like Gagner (for whatever reason)? Fine. Everybody has the right to their opinion, but some of the arguments trotted out here to support that opinion (or that he's a great player who can do no wrong) are so contrived, so lame and so full of holes it's laughable.

If you were young, fit, rolling in cash, and had primo tail coming at you from all angles...and if you could choose any city in N. America to live in... would you want to waste the best years of your life in Edmonton?

Unfair question.

Quicksilver is none of the above -- he eats $2 steak, lives in a single-wide somewhere, walks around wearing crazed clown make-up and the only thing he rolls in is his own vomit -- and there are no "best" years in his life, so he cannot possibly answer this.

I would prefer a 4 year contract so Gagner and Eberle don't expire the same year. it will be important to stager Hall, Ebs, Nuge and Yaks contracts as signing two in the same year may be difficult. At $5 mill a year it needs to be a clean contract without any NMC. if he wants that then I say $4.5 mill. Then he is also a tool if in a couple years we need to make a significant move for a deep playoff push or someone who fills our needs at the time better than Gagner becomes available.

I've been torn on what to think about Gagner and have been flip flopping the past few weeks. He won me over when he dropped the mitts with Beauchemin after he ran Hall. His offensive numbers are steadily improving and he brings a positive attitude to the rink all the time. One thing that's rarely talked about is his pedigree, he was the #6 overall pick and is the son of a former top NHLer.

I think 5 years at $5 million would be palatable to me as long as there isn't a NMC/NTC included. With any combination of Hall, Eberle, Yak or Perron on his wings he's likely to continue putting up solid numbers moving forward, making him an appreciating asset. Hopefully Eakins can instill some defensive mojo into his game and Sam can steadily improve in the faceoff circle or learn to play on the wing.

Gagner. A good guy, a hard worker, mature for his age, puts up points. Is that enough to give him $5m+ a year? I still say no. You can ice 12 forwards like Gagner and not win. Players need to fill a certain role and I don't see Gagner filling our 2nd line center role behind Nuge the way we need him to. He's not big or physical and he's weak defensively. A good guy who works hard and puts up some points but not someone you shell out big money to put in a role he's not a great fit for.

As far as getting paid by an arbitrator, there are too many close examples to Gagner making less than $5m. Arbitrators aren't paying for UFA years either, so I'd guess he'd get $4.5m or less

The delays in getting the deal done are probably due to whether the contract includes an NTC. $4.5M/year for a 2C that can't backcheck will mean he has to be traded as soon as Nuge and Yak get their extensions.

Do arbitrators look at Corsi?

"The sky is falling". Chicken little said. Gagner has earned the 5x5 and with no disrespect to Yak and Nuge they have not put up the numbers longterm as Gagner. You hope Yak and Nuge will continue to progess as per the draft ranking. But in comparison you already have a bird in hand with Gagner. You know what your getting and to be frank 1 season does not entitle YAK to a 6 million dollar contract. The numbers for Yak will need to continue to improve over the next 2 years for him to get a 6 million dollar contract. I for one hope it does. Lastly what do you think the cap will be 2-3 years from now? I see it at 80-85 million. The league will add revenue via new TV contracts. HRR will increase as the NHL increases its gate revenue through new teams and relocating others(NYIslanders),new arenas coming online. The league is in growth mode coming out of the lockout. Look forward not backward.

"When I add in some of the intangibles I'm talking about to comparisons I see in the piece Dellow wrote, I don't think it's a stretch to believe that Gagner is a reasonable buy at $1 million less a season than Hall and Eberle just signed for. That means $5 million a season."

Please, pay attention before going off as you tend to do..

The "doesn't complain" reference you took out of context isn't a reason to pay Gagner $5 million. Other factors and the circumstances in this case will likely put him at or over that on their own. My point is, he's also a solid guy and has been a loyal player who wants to stay here, which counts for something, whether you choose to recognize it or not.

Or, as has been suggested, MacTavish can play hardball with Gagner, who has put in six seasons in EDM, because a couple of kids, who've played less than one full season each, might be more prolific and want to get paid, too.

Here's a thought: let them be the "value" contracts next time up. Let them wait more than two seasons for the big money, just as Gagner has.

All of the talk about what Yakupov, RNH and JSchultz will want kind of misses the point: they're going to be RFAs when they do their next deal. We'll see if Hall's deal serves as a cap - I'm not so sure it will. If Yakupov scores 40 next year, I'm not convinced he'll take the $6MM deal.

That being said, the point is this: say that Gagner's a 60 pt guy in a second line role with lots of PP time. That's a hell of a hockey player and worth a fair amount of money. I'd expect that he'll be in the black +/- wise provided that they can sort out whatever the hell went wrong this year.

If that's the player he is, anything below $6MM is probably a fair deal, with the possibility of looking like a steal if the cap's at $80MM three years from now.

But that was a 10 game stretch where the Oilers could have made the playoffs.

Did Sam step up or disappear?

It's a rhetorical question :)

Huh, you should maybe let Gagner know that it was solely on him to carry the team.

Unless, are you saying that we should now get rid of Hall, Eberle, RNH, Yak, and the rest of the team as well? Why didn't any of them carry the team to the playoffs? Why was it Gagner's job to single-handedly hoist the team on his shoulders and carry them across the finish line?

I mean, Gagner only got 3 points in the last 7, (funny how you're saying 2 in the last 10...) so dump him, right? Yak only got 1, so he's gotta go too. Hall and Ebs, only about 5-6 each. Why, that's less than a ppg, so they're obviously garbage. Why, there were games in that stretch where they didn't record a point at all! And these bozos make $6 mil a year?

If you want to talk about small sample sizes, don't take 1/5 of the season-and give erroneous totals to boot-as a representative of the whole. I'm sure if someone brought up the fact that Gagner tied Gretzky's point record for one game, you'd be all over that like a fat kid on cake as not being a true representation because it's such a small sample size.

I'm torn here, I like Gagner, I don't mind a bit of an overpay, but the question should be, is Gagner at 5M what the Oilers actually need?

The Oilers need a second line centre with skill, size, toughness, and defensive acumen. (Complete two way centre)

Gagner has the desire, the competitiveness, the skill, but he lacks so many critical elements to his game.

I follow Delow a fair bit and his research on faceoffs in the OZ, NZ and the DZ , the correlation to how bad the Oilers get outshot and the scoring chances they create against them.

I admit, I'm not the best at interpreting advanced language, but it seems to me that this is a massive ongoing issue with the Oilers that has to get rectified, if your MacTavish your not trading RNH or Gordon.

If your hoping Gagner advanced numbers get better when history shows he's been fairly consistent where he is at, I think that's a tight rope to walk.

The pink elephant in the room that nobody wants to address can be underlined by this quote:

"The Oilers need a second line centre with skill, size, toughness, and defensive acumen. (Complete two way centre)"

Yes, yes we do and this is not something Sam does. But the pink elephant I mentioned is that nobody is trading this guy away. Name a team in the league right now that wants to trade their second line center that has skill, size, toughness, and defensive acumen. Even cap crunched teams would likely bury a contract in the minors before just giving a player like that away. All teams need this player, and so we're left going full circle again to the fact that we still need a quality second line center that can at least make plays and put up points and while MacT has overloaded on defensemen, he has clearly not realized that we're just as thin at center and completely ignored it. So we're "stuck" with Sam.

So what do we do. Well, we pay him, we give it reasonable term in the form of 4 or 5 years max, and if need be we overpay a little to ensure that there's no contract silliness in the form of NTCs or NMCs that hamper the ability to move him two years down the road for that top flight d-man or center we need if one comes available then. But right now? There just simply aren't any. When our best bet is hoping to outbid every other team in the league for Couturier when Philly inevitably starts their cap crunch fire-sale (assuming they include him in that fire-sale, they really might not), things are not really looking good for us in terms of trade options for what we need.