GBP/USD: Challenging the resistance at 1.5916

EUR/USD

Testing again the resistance at 1.2790.

EUR/USD is approaching the resistance at 1.2790 (09/11/2012 high). Hourly support is at 1.2691 (16/11/2012 low).

The break to the downside out of the consolidation from mid-September to November (see triangle) calls for further weakness towards the support at 1.2431 as long as prices remain below the resistance area between 1.2876 and 1.2894.

The long-term trend is negative (see declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Challenging the resistance at 1.5916.

GBP/USD is bouncing after having broken its key support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low). The hourly resistance at 1.5916 has been breached but prices have thus far failed to hold above it. Support is at 1.5829.

GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The break of the support at 1.5914 (23/10/2012 low) opens the way for a medium-term decline towards at least the support at 1.5755 (28/08/2012 low) as long as prices remain below the resistance at 1.6043 (07/11/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY

Long-term declining channel has been broken.

USD/JPY has broken its resistance at 80.62 and its long-term declining channel. The next resistance is at 81.78. Hourly supports can be found at 80.90 (16/11/2012 low) and 80.76 (intraday low).

USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process. The break of the key resistance at 80.62 (25/06/2012 high) opens the way for further medium-term strength. A strong long-term resistance is at 85.53 (06/04/2011 high).

Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF

Fading again close to the resistance at 0.9502.

USD/CHF has thus far failed to break the resistance at 0.9502 (31/08/2012 low). A shortterm corrective phase is underway. A key support is at 0.9381 (07/11/2012 low).

The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) has invalidated the succession of higher lows that started in August 2011. However, the recent break above the key resistance at 0.9438 favours further short-term strength. The next key resistance is at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high).

Buy limit 3 at 0.9405, Objs: 0.9455/0.9628/0.9855, Stop: 0.9355.

USD/CAD

Challenging the low of its short-term rising channel.

USD/CAD is testing the low of its short-term rising channel. Monitor also the hourly support at 0.9983 (09/11/2012 low). Another support can be found at 0.9947 (08/11/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 1.0023 (intraday high).

The underlying trend is negative (see mediumterm declining channel in the daily time frame). Therefore, we see the rise from 0.9633 as a countertrend move. A medium-term resistance is at 1.0250 (12/07/2012 high, see also declining trendline on a daily chart).

Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD

Intraday reversal close to the support at 1.0305.

AUD/USD made a bullish intraday reversal close to its support at 1.0305 (26/10/2012 low) last Friday. A bounce is now underway. Monitor the resistance area given by 1.0387 (15/11/2012 high) and 1.0400. An hourly support is at 1.0336 (intraday low).

AUD/USD is moving within a medium-term horizontal range defined by the support at 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low) and the resistance at 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high).

Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

Challenging a strong resistance area.

GBP/JPY is testing a key resistance area defined by the declining trendline and 129.65. An hourly support can be found at 128.26 (16/11/2012 low). Another support can be found at 127.52 (14/11/2012 high).

GBP/JPY is still under the negative influence of its long-term falling trendline that started in April 2010. A break of this trendline is needed to suggest further medium-term upside potential.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY

Challenging its declining trendline.

EUR/JPY is challenging its strong resistance area implied by the declining trendline and 104.59. Supports can be found at 103.05 (16/11/2012 low) and 102.01 (15/11/2012 low).

EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The support to monitor for a short-term corrective phase is 99.52 (11/09/2012 low).

Await fresh signal.

EUR/GBP

Monitor potential base formation.

EUR/GBP is moving sideways between the support at 0.7961 (08/11/2012 low) and the resistance at 0.8075 (31/10/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.8001 (14/11/2012 low).

We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance at 0.8169 (11/06/2012 high) to negate this view.

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Bijoy has been working in the financial industry for the last 14 years. Recent experience includes working for a proprietary trading firm offering trade recommendations and market direction in FX, Fixed Income and Commodity markets, at times trading these views.

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