SOLAR WATCH * 312 M & 25 X FLARES starting 3-7-2011 (Updated Daily)

SOLAR UPDATE for 12-27-12- We have 2 new active regions coming over the east limb right now. Too soon to tell if they are growing or diminishing in strength. In the south we have already seen a flare from this new Beta (or B-G) region.New SS on SE Limb-:1newsouth:

On the NE limb we have a large Alpha (?) sunspot which may be new or a return of 1630* (*=No returning regions were mentioned by NOAA yesterday nor were they noted on the Soleria flare Predictor page. I also believe this is at the wrong latitude for 1630 and would more likely be 1629 if anything). Either way we'll get a better look-see tomorrow as it comes over more fully.New SS NE Limb-:2newnorth:

.24 hr Summary...Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1635 (N12W32)produced several nominal C-class flares during the period. This regionmaintains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and continues to showslight growth in its leader and intermediate spots as well as increasingcomplexity. A new region, 1637 (N06E47) was numbered today with a simple alpha magnetic configuration. Coronal Hole (CH) 78, with a negative polarity has a leading edge near 55W. No Earth-directed CMEs were visible during the period.

Solar Wind

.Forecast...Solar wind is expected to remain at nominal levels for dayone (27 December), followed by an increase in wind speed to around 450km/s over the following two days (28-29 December) with the anticipatedarrival of high speed stream effects from CH 78.

Speaking of the weather and Galactic Cosmic Rays, the IPCC's (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report has been leaked worldwide on the internet. The leaker's evaluation of the data points to a bigger Solar/GCR influence on climate than man-made fuels or cow farts.

*The IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) 5th Assessment Report due for release in September of 2013, has now been leaked publicly over 9 months in advance on an internet publication called “Stop Green Suicide“.One of the reports 800 expert reviewers, a man by the name of Alex Rawls, apparently leaked the report and is backing it with written evidence that cosmic rays are actually the cause of climate change and warming patterns, thus possibly blowing the lid off the whole entire global warming fraud pushed by figureheads such as Al Gore and others.

This is from the Leaker's analysis:

**Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence ("many empirical relationships") for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don't know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC's computer models is seen to be "solar irradiance."

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 "further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change" (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity "explains" in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

This is pretty huge! This should be a page one pinned thread. In brief, they're saying (on one hand) that Global Warming is still our fault; while (on the other hand) their evidence is proof that unknown solar and cosmic factors are a much bigger influence. Oh well, now the cover-up can begin, LOL.

This page from Scholarpedia is an excellent mini-textbook intro to solar activity for both newbies and veteran sun-watchers. Here's a snippet I found interesting-Flares, Microflares, and Nanoflares-

Flare-like activity extends to smaller scales and to lower energies. The weakest events - nominally of order 10-6 of the energy of a major flare - are the microflares. Parker proposed the term nanoflare for still weaker events hypothetically associated with the formation of current sheets and their dissipation. The sticking and slipping of the coronal plasma between these temporary static equilibria, the nanoflares, would then constitute the heating mechanism involved with the extraction of magnetic free energy in the coronal magnetic field stressed by random footpoint motions. The nanoflares would be essentially too numerous to recognize individually, and perhaps not surprisingly no unambiguous evidence for their existence has yet appeared. The microflares, however, are easy to observe by a variety of techniques because of their isolated spatial and temporal distributions.

High intelligence in Chile:All Systems Go for Highest Altitude SupercomputerOne of the most powerful supercomputers in the world has now been fully installed and tested at its remote, high altitude site in the Andes of northern Chile. This marks one of the major remaining milestones toward completion of the Atacama Large Millimeter/sub millimeter Array (ALMA), the most elaborate ground-based telescope in history.snipThe correlator's 134 million processors continually combine and compare faint celestial signals received by the antennas in the ALMA array, which are separated by up to 16 kilometres, enabling the antennas to work together as a single, enormous telescope. The information collected by each antenna must be combined with that from every other antenna. At the correlator's maximum capacity of 64 antennas [1] as many as 17 quadrillion calculations every second must be performed.Complete article is here: [link to www.spacemart.com]

"The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not." - "I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them."-- Thomas Jefferson

This page from Scholarpedia is an excellent mini-textbook intro to solar activity for both newbies and veteran sun-watchers. Here's a snippet I found interesting-Flares, Microflares, and Nanoflares-

Flare-like activity extends to smaller scales and to lower energies. The weakest events - nominally of order 10-6 of the energy of a major flare - are the microflares. Parker proposed the term nanoflare for still weaker events hypothetically associated with the formation of current sheets and their dissipation. The sticking and slipping of the coronal plasma between these temporary static equilibria, the nanoflares, would then constitute the heating mechanism involved with the extraction of magnetic free energy in the coronal magnetic field stressed by random footpoint motions. The nanoflares would be essentially too numerous to recognize individually, and perhaps not surprisingly no unambiguous evidence for their existence has yet appeared. The microflares, however, are easy to observe by a variety of techniques because of their isolated spatial and temporal distributions.

High intelligence in Chile:All Systems Go for Highest Altitude SupercomputerOne of the most powerful supercomputers in the world has now been fully installed and tested at its remote, high altitude site in the Andes of northern Chile. This marks one of the major remaining milestones toward completion of the Atacama Large Millimeter/sub millimeter Array (ALMA), the most elaborate ground-based telescope in history.snipThe correlator's 134 million processors continually combine and compare faint celestial signals received by the antennas in the ALMA array, which are separated by up to 16 kilometres, enabling the antennas to work together as a single, enormous telescope. The information collected by each antenna must be combined with that from every other antenna. At the correlator's maximum capacity of 64 antennas [1] as many as 17 quadrillion calculations every second must be performed.Complete article is here: [link to www.spacemart.com]

Quoting: joinca

Wow, Jodi Foster from Contact would be out of her mind, he he. I think ALMA was just mentioned in psy's first video!!

Spread the word, change the collective conscious......THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

I just learned how to make random smilies, I'm soooo happy!! Just pick a random word and place it between colons, check your preview before you hit post. For this one I typed colon then eagle, then another colon

How cool is that????

Spread the word, change the collective conscious......THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

I just learned how to make random smilies, I'm soooo happy!! Just pick a random word and place it between colons, check your preview before you hit post. For this one I typed colon then eagle, then another colon

How cool is that????

Quoting: Isis One

hehe I've been fishing for smilies for a while now :P I haven't uploaded any custom ones myself

I look up at the sky, and wonder where I am on earth. Then I wonder where I am in the solar system. Then I wonder where I am in the galaxy. Then I wonder where I am in the universe.

I just learned how to make random smilies, I'm soooo happy!! Just pick a random word and place it between colons, check your preview before you hit post. For this one I typed colon then eagle, then another colon

How cool is that????

Quoting: Isis One

What a beautiful picture!!! It's too bad they are not standing up anymore. :(

I just learned how to make random smilies, I'm soooo happy!! Just pick a random word and place it between colons, check your preview before you hit post. For this one I typed colon then eagle, then another colon

How cool is that????

Quoting: Isis One

What a beautiful picture!!! It's too bad they are not standing up anymore. :(

Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

I know, one of the global tragedies of our lifetime, this one is a little spooky

Spread the word, change the collective conscious......THERE IS MORE THAN ENOUGH OF EVERYTHING TO GO AROUND

When you are undisciplined, the universe is extremely forgiving and when you are disciplined, the universe is extremely generous. Me

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight, for a very long time, of the shore. Andre Gide

I just learned how to make random smilies, I'm soooo happy!! Just pick a random word and place it between colons, check your preview before you hit post. For this one I typed colon then eagle, then another colon

How cool is that????

Quoting: Isis One

What a beautiful picture!!! It's too bad they are not standing up anymore. :(

Quoting: #Geomagnetic_Storm#

I know, one of the global tragedies of our lifetime, this one is a little spooky

Speaking of the weather and Galactic Cosmic Rays, the IPCC's (the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 5th Assessment Report has been leaked worldwide on the internet. The leaker's evaluation of the data points to a bigger Solar/GCR influence on climate than man-made fuels or cow farts.

*The IPCC’s (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s) 5th Assessment Report due for release in September of 2013, has now been leaked publicly over 9 months in advance on an internet publication called “Stop Green Suicide“.One of the reports 800 expert reviewers, a man by the name of Alex Rawls, apparently leaked the report and is backing it with written evidence that cosmic rays are actually the cause of climate change and warming patterns, thus possibly blowing the lid off the whole entire global warming fraud pushed by figureheads such as Al Gore and others.

This is from the Leaker's analysis:

**Lead story from the Second Order Draft: strong evidence for solar forcing beyond TSI now acknowledged by IPCC

Compared to the First Order Draft, the SOD now adds the following sentence, indicated in bold (page 7-43, lines 1-5, emphasis added):

Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link. We focus here on observed relationships between GCR and aerosol and cloud properties.

The Chapter 7 authors are admitting strong evidence ("many empirical relationships") for enhanced solar forcing (forcing beyond total solar irradiance, or TSI), even if they don't know what the mechanism is. This directly undercuts the main premise of the report, as stated in Chapter 8 (page 8-4, lines 54-57):

There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.

The Chapter 8 authors (a different group than the Chapter 7 authors) are explicit here that their claim about natural forcing being small compared to anthropogenic forcing is based on an analysis in which the only solar forcing that is taken into account is TSI. This can be verified from the radiative forcing table on page 8-39 where the only solar variable included in the IPCC's computer models is seen to be "solar irradiance."

This analysis, where post-1980 warming gets attributed to the human release of CO2 on the grounds that it cannot be attributed to solar irradiance, cannot stand in the face of the Chapter 7 admission of substantial evidence for solar forcing beyond solar irradiance. Once the evidence for enhanced solar forcing is taken into account we can have no confidence that natural forcing is small compared to anthropogenic forcing.

The Chapter 8 premise that natural forcing is relatively small leads directly to the main conclusion of the entire report, stated in the first sentence of the Executive Summary (the very first sentence of the entire report): that advances since AR4 "further strengthen the basis for human activities being the primary driver in climate change" (p.1-2, lines 3-5). This headline conclusion is a direct descendant of the assumption that the only solar forcing is TSI, a claim that their own report no longer accepts.

The report still barely hints at the mountain of evidence for enhanced solar forcing, or the magnitude of the evidenced effect. Dozens of studies (section two here) have found between a .4 and .7 degree of correlation between solar activity and various climate indices, suggesting that solar activity "explains" in the statistical sense something like half of all past temperature change, very little of which could be explained by the very slight variation in TSI. At least the Chapter 7 team is now being explicit about what this evidence means: that some mechanism of enhanced solar forcing must be at work.

This is pretty huge! This should be a page one pinned thread. In brief, they're saying (on one hand) that Global Warming is still our fault; while (on the other hand) their evidence is proof that unknown solar and cosmic factors are a much bigger influence. Oh well, now the cover-up can begin, LOL.

Since it is after 9 a.m. ET, I will go on and post the 2/3 min news this morning. Isis One, as soon as you are regularly back here (I assume after the holidays), I will curtsie politely and step back. :-)

Since it is after 9 a.m. ET, I will go on and post the 2/3 min news this morning. Isis One, as soon as you are regularly back here (I assume after the holidays), I will curtsie politely and step back. :-)

Quoting: shenue

WELL, I am interested in hearing what he is going to "set on fire". Wondering if it's the "fluff"?

Since it is after 9 a.m. ET, I will go on and post the 2/3 min news this morning. Isis One, as soon as you are regularly back here (I assume after the holidays), I will curtsie politely and step back. :-)

Quoting: shenue

WELL, I am interested in hearing what he is going to "set on fire". Wondering if it's the "fluff"?

Quoting: miabelieves

Yep, I caught that too. I was wondering what he meant by that. Lol. It's got to be something, and if I had to guess, I would say the fluff. Next guess would be the thing that shall not be typed. Lol. I don't know which one would be worse at this point. Awww hell, it could be something we haven't even thought of yet. I am sure we will find out soon enough. :)