Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Improbably, the Indians are back in 1st place
despite the fact that the season feels like it’s been slip-sliding away since
that Tigers’ sweep nearly a month ago.
While the fact that the Tribe finds themselves atop the AL Central again
may be more of a function of the rest of the AL Central (the White Sox have 3
starters with an ERA over 5.60) than an indication that the Indians are a
burgeoning juggernaut, let’s enjoy the view from the top.

After the Indians finish up with the NL Central (after the
Reds leave, the Tribe heads to Houston), the Tribe embarks on a vicious part of
their schedule, playing 17 of their next 24 games on the road, largely against
the AL East (including EIGHT games against the Rays) with a sprinkling of the
suddenly resurgent Angels as the only “respite” from the upcoming AL East
gauntlet. Once they wrap up in Houston,
they will not play a team that currently has a losing record until they go to
Motown on July 24th…or more than a month from now.

So, as is always the case at the end of June and in the
month of July, it’s time for the Indians to either firmly establish that
they’re IN this AL Central battle to be the “best” mediocre team or go the way
of the 2011 season. Much will be learned
about this club in the next month and while EVERYTHING that’s being written and
talked about has focused on the offensive “struggles” and how the Indians are
going to find prospects to get a big bat or which players the Indians are
targeting to find that big bat, let’s look at something that’s kind of
instructive here in an attempt to change (or at least broaden) the prevailing
focus:

Indians – 4.36 runs
per game

AL Average – 4.43
runs per game

Are the Indians below average, offensively-speaking in the
AL?

Yes, but their run per game average puts them 8th
in the AL in runs scored per game. That is near the middle, though a little
below the middle, among the 14 AL teams.
It puts them just below the Tigers (4.45 runs/game) and the Orioles
(4.40 runs/game) and one spot ahead of the Rays (4.34 runs/game). Take that any way that you want, but we’re
nearing the mid-point of the season and the offense has been just about
league-average, despite Santana’s massively concerning and frustrating power
outage, Hafner’s injury, and with the LF “situation” seemingly causing the
I-480 bridge to fill up on a nightly basis.

It is true that they have little power to speak of (though
the Indians have a higher SLG than the Rays) and please don’t take that to mean
that I’m Kevin Bacon out there yelling “Remain Calm…All is Well” to the
stampeding masses as the offense is being largely paced by their superb middle
infielders and 2/3 of their outfield.
Certainly, I don’t need to be told/reminded that LF is an issue, has
been an issue, and could remain an issue because I don’t feel like finding or navigating
through all of the links on what I’ve written about what should or should not
be done in LF as – quite frankly – it depresses me to no end. While I’m well aware that Johnny Damon is
taking years off of all of your lives and is being vilified (rightly, in some
cases…and there are some horrifying marital infidelity details from his book detailed here that I’ve never seen before) for what he is and what he isn’t, it is worth
noting that the offense hasn’t been the Indians’ MAIN problem this year.

Is it frustrating and mind-numbing at times?

Of course…but in the context of the rest of the league, the
Indians’ offense hasn’t been all that bad.
That’s damning with faint praise to be sure – and again, don’t take this
to mean that the Indians should stand pat in terms of looking to upgrade
(although there building sense that the Indians are waiting to see when/if
Sizemore is going to come back before looking at add anything) their lineup
with a RH bat who can play LF/1B/DH as Sizemore (when/if healthy), Hafner
(when/if healthy) and Kotchman could all use rest vs. LHP – but if you’re
looking at what the Indians have done as a whole, the pitching staff is much
more culpable for their recent slide and for their ghastly run differential
that leads so many to (rightly) be suspicious of the Indians’ season-long
viability as a contender. In terms of
that run-differential, the Indians currently have the 2nd worst in the AL (only “better” than the moribund Twins) and to figure out why, you only
have to look at where the Indians’ pitching staff ranks in the AL.

Indians’ – 4.57 ERA

AL average – 4.00 ERA

So, if the Indians offense is about in line with the AL
average in terms of runs scored, their pitching is a half-run worse as they now
rank second-to-last (above only that trainwreck in the Twin Cities) in Team ERA...and
the advanced metrics aren’t much kinder.
Remember, their run per game average is 8th in the AL…and
their pitching is 13th in the AL.
How this team is in 1st place in mid-to-late-June is a riddle
wrapped in a mystery and, as enjoyable as it may be to relish, the ugly facts
are that their starters (4.64 ERA, 11th in the AL) and their bullpen
(4.45 ERA, worst in the AL) are equally culpable for the mess that is their
staff. And for as much attention as has
been paid to the offense, what’s holding the Indians back is the inconsistency
of their rotation and the inability to find relievers not named Smith, Pestano,
and Perez that can be counted on with any sense of confidence.

What’s most alarming though is that things don’t seem to be
improving much. Yes, Masterson looks
MUCH better in recent weeks (1.80 ERA in his last three starts, not including
Wednesday) and the Little Cowboy will continue to baffle me as I can’t figure
out if he’s a Flyball pitcher, a K pitcher, or a GB-inducing machine from game
to game (although maybe he’s just Paul Byrd…constantly reinventing himself),
but as a whole, the performance of the starters is more than a little
concerning for a team that is attempting to stay atop (or at least near the top)
of the AL Central.

Starters by month

April – 3.93 ERA

May – 5.03 ERA

June – 4.75 ERA

Since May 1st, the rotation has an ERA of 4.93
and – if you can believe it – the Indians are actually over .500 (albeit by the
slimmest of margins at 24-23) during that stretch since the beginning of
May. In the last month, Lowe has a 9.36
ERA (5 games), Jeanmar has a 7.92 ERA (5 games), and Tomlin has a 5.65 ERA (5
starts, including Tuesday’s) with Ubaldo (4.85 ERA) actually being the
second-most reliable starter over the course of the last month…as terrifying as
that is to think about.

And that’s what seems to be overlooked on this Tribe team as
everything harps away at Damon, the erstwhile and misplaced LF, or Lopez as a
clean-up hitter or finding that BIG BAT, in that it may not really matter what
or if the Indians add to their lineup if they can’t get some semblance of
consistency and consistent success from their rotation. Maybe that means that they target an arm in
the Trade Market (as alluded to here last week) or maybe that means that they
bring Zach McAllister back to Cleveland to replace an increasingly inefficient
Jeanmar Gomez, but the improvement in the rotation is likely going to have to
be largely internal, in terms of Ubaldo and Lowe (in particular) finding
something that resembles success and Masterson continuing to lower his season
ERA with each start.

But the issues aren’t unique to the rotation because just as
concerning is the Indians’ middle relief corps, an aspect of the team that has
struggled to such a degree that Acta put a player that was recently DFA’d by
the Rockies (Team ERA – 5.38) in to the biggest plate appearance of Tuesday’s
game. Luckily (for everyone), Esmil
Rogers pitched his way out of the jam, but the insertion of Rogers into that
bases-loaded situation provided – in a nutshell – how much (or how little)
trust Acta has in his relievers not named Smith, Pestano, or Perez. In the highest of high leverage situations,
Acta turned to…a guy named Esmil that had been on the roster for about a week.

Don’t get me wrong, that mistrust in the middle relief corps
is completely valid as – just as the Indians’ offense is largely reliant on the
middle of the infield – the back of the Indians’ bullpen is responsible for
much of the success that the Indians have had as a relief corps. To wit, the Indians’ bullpen ERA is 4.45 (and
that is the highest ERA in the AL for bullpens), and their bullpen ERA without
Pestano and Perez is an astonishing 5.23.
Unfortunately, it isn’t getting better as the season progresses:

Pestano and Perez since beginning of May – 1.70 ERA in 37 IP

Rest of bullpen since beginning of May – 5.55 ERA in 99 IP

Now, I’m not sure what’s more concerning here about that set
of numbers – the inability of the other relievers to hold opponents at bay or
that Pestano and Perez have thrown more than a quarter of the innings out of
the bullpen since May 1st. If
you include Joe Smith in that usage percentage, realize that Smith, Pestano,
and Perez have thrown 56 2/3 of the last 136 innings by relievers for the
Indians – or 41.6% of the bullpen innings for the Tribe in the last 47 games. What’s most stunning about that is that the
trio of Smith, Pestano, and Perez generally pitch an inning at a time and
STILL, they’ve been called upon to pitch more than 40% of the innings out of
the bullpen for nearly 2 months now.

So where do the Indians go from here with the bullpen?
If I’m bringing McAllister up to the rotation, it might be interesting to see
if Jeanmar could have any success as a long man, or maybe even if Corey Kluber
would find some success as a long man, as he’s been much better as of late in AAA as he continues to strike guys out.
The fact that they’re scouring the waiver wire (Rogers, etc.) rather
than bringing up the gaggle of arms (Herrmann, Ray, etc.) in the Clippers’
bullpen certainly would point to the idea that adding a piece to the bullpen is
a pretty sound one. Certainly, there is
promise with guys like Hagadone and Barnes, but their uneven performances for
the parent club remind us that constructing a bullpen – a WHOLE bullpen – is
next to impossible and it becomes a matter of finding that lightning in a
bottle and that right mix of relievers to shorten the game and protect a lead
or not let a game get too far out of hand.
The Tribe has the trio in the back that can shorten the game, but
they’ve been unable to find that right mix of arms to get to Smith, Pestano,
and Perez with any regularity. Maybe
they call up a guy like Cody Allen or Bryce Stowell and see if they can find
what they did (briefly) with Jensen Lewis and (currently) with Vinnie Pestano –
another arm that can extend the effectiveness of the bullpen.

Unfortunately, until the Indians are able to get some length
and quality out of their starting rotation and unless they’re able to find more
bullpen arms outside of Smith, Pestano, and Perez to lean on, it isn’t going to
matter if Jose Lopez is hitting clean-up or if Johnny Damon is raising blood
pressures across the North Coast.Fully
realizing that seeing Lopez as the clean-up hitter or Damon at all in the field
are TOTALLY occupying the talk on the Reservation, the truth is that the
rotation and the middle relievers are KILLING this teams’ chances at running
away with a very winnable division.

Perhaps the Tribe will find some consistency in their
rotation and a bullpen arm will emerge on the upcoming road trip (and they
better feast on the Astros before their schedule turns brutal through the end
of July) but the Indians’ contention is likely to hinge on their pitching
staff. While the offense receives most
of the attention (and figures to continue to), the ability of the pitching
staff to keep the team in games – instead of behind in them…early – is going to
dictate whether the Indians can make it through their upcoming gauntlet of the
AL East teams (where runs are plentiful) as an AL Central contender or as a
pretender…

The Indians' usage seems fairly in line with those two. Maybe other teams have a different picture, or I might have done my math wrong. This isn't to say that there aren't issues, but the usage of the Indians' 3 good relievers doesn't seem out of line.

Beyond that, Accardo has a 127 ERA+ with a better SO/BB than Pestano and Smith, although probably mostly in lower leverage situations.

Also, those three relievers pitched 40% of our relief innings last season (by my admittedly quick count). So the numbers don't look terribly out of line with either other teams our past usage.

What's concerning to me is that, last year, the margin for error on any given night for any given reliever is thinner than last year. Acta could reliably go to Raffy, to Sipp, even to Herrmann (or the group of try-out relievers at times), but this season he's had trouble developing other options. The top three are really being leaned on.

That's extremely interesting (and nice legwork) in that I had no idea that the workload was so heavily weighted towards the back-end, regardless of team. Thanks for providing the proper context.

What MTF says is what caused me to look at it though as they have to find someone else other than that trio because if something (knocking firmly on wood) were to happen to one of those guys as we go down the stretch, it weakens that pen to the point of major concern.

Paul, not sure I follow this:"The fact that they’re scouring the waiver wire (Rogers, etc.) rather than bringing up the gaggle of arms (Herrmann, Ray, etc.) in the Clippers’ bullpen certainly would point to the idea that adding a piece to the bullpen is a pretty sound one."

I'm not sure why the waiver work is greater evidence of bullpen need than shuttling guys in from Columbus, or am I reading this wrong?

I'm also not sure why the Indians haven't called up Herrmann yet. Per Baseball Cube, he's posting career highs in K/9 and BB/K ratio. It does look like he's giving up a bunch of hits, maybe that's it.

Mike, I suppose I could have worded that better in that I was surprised that the Indians pulled a guy like Rogers off the waiver wire instead of giving the guys in Columbus (and Herrmann is having a good year there) a shot to augment the pen.

Essentially - and maybe I'm looking too deeply into this - I took it to mean that they don't see their AAA relievers as all that compelling and are willing to add from outside the organization. With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me if they attempted to add a more substantial bullpen arm in the coming weeks.

The best bullpen arms in Columbus at the beginning of this season were Hagadone and CC Lee. Hags is here, and Lee is out for the year with TJ surgery. Zach Putnam was traded before the season. Sipp came up in 2009, Pestano in 2011. It's a lot to ask of a farm system to deliver more than two legit backend bullpen arms per season year after year, so it makes sense that they're looking for outside options.