Why we know we’re right: It would be nothing short of cruel and unusual punishment for the Boilermakers to suffer anything resembling last year’s hardships. Injuries piled up and hope for a winning record crumbled. Fast forward to 2011: Coach Danny Hope has 18 starters back, including last season’s leader in tackles and pass breakups (safety Logan Link), defensive tackle Kawann Short and a stable of quarterbacks who stumbled through the year all banged up. Quarterback Rob Henry (finger) isn’t a lock for the starting job if Robert Marve is cleared after a torn knee ligament sustained last year. That could make for healthy fall competition, along with Caleb TerBush. Running back Ralph Bolden, who missed last year with a knee injury, sat out the spring but they are holding out hope he’ll be ready for fall camp.

Why we might be wrong: The offseason hasn’t been all roses for Purdue. In a terrible tragedy, walk-on running back Sean Matti died in a drowning. On the field, potential doesn’t win games. The Boilermakers have to prove they can be difference-makers in the Big Ten. Purdue isn’t terribly strong at receiver. The team also lost the best player on the team, defensive end Ryan Kerrigan, who accounted for 12-1/2 sacks.

Our confidence in this pick: Solid. It can’t be much worse, that’s for sure. But that’s not the only reason for making this prediction. The entire defensive backfield is back. This team is battle-tested. Last year they had second-half leads against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Indiana and came within a score of beating Michigan.

Judgment day: Oct. 1 vs. Notre Dame. This is as good of test as any to see where the Boilermakers are. It’s not until the fourth game of the year, giving the quarterbacks plenty of time to settle in. And, it sets up the Big Ten stretch.

Coach’s job security: Solid. Give Hope a break. Last year should be scratched from the books. This is a fresh start for Hope, heading into his third season. Getting to a December of January game would be big plus.