Iraq deceit and the voters' verdict

Last updated at 11:37 17 July 2004

From the voters in two by-elections in previously safe seats, a massive rejection of New Labour.

From Lord Butler, a comprehensive indictment of the way Britain was misled into a disastrous war in Iraq and a damning analysis of how our traditional constitutional checks and balances were contemptuously ignored.

It has been, without doubt, a disastrous week for Tony Blair.

The by-elections are a clear message that the British people no longer trust the integrity of a leader who, it has now been confirmed, took us to war on a lie.

Lord Butler presents a devastating picture of how corrupt governance has become. Despite New Labour's hysterical attacks on the BBC and Andrew Gilligan, the incontrovertible fact is that the dossier Mr Blair presented as his basis for war was 'sexed up' - by cynically omitting the all-too justified doubts that MI6 had about Saddam's weapons.

Just as disturbing is Lord Butler's analysis of the way the Prime Minister subverted the standards and decencies that for decades had maintained a proud record of integrity in British public life.

Most critically, the 'firewall' between the politicians and the Joint Intelligence Committee - designed to ensure that secret information was presented without distortion - was torn down.

But, despite the volume of evidence that Lord Butler faithfully reproduces, he concludes that no one is to blame or should lose their job.

We are already paying the price for his decision to cower behind the narrowness of his mandate.

Mr Blair does not even see the need to apologise let alone consider resigning.

Instead he sends out ministers like Margaret Beckett and John Reid who respond to legitimate questions from broadcasters with a nauseating mixture of arrogance and self-righteousness.

As for ex-JIC chairman John Scarlett, he seems determined to keep his new job as head of MI6 even though he is now accused of misleading the Hutton inquiry. He allegedly failed to reveal that the key claim that Saddam Hussein was still making biological and chemical agents had been withdrawn a month earlier.

If that is so, it is yet another reason why, rather than being promoted, he should resign. Instead, guess what, No.10 rushes to protect him.

Faced by such a tarnished Government, the Tories should be streets ahead in the polls and winning by-elections. Yet they could not even keep the second places they took at the last General Election.

This is disturbing for Mr Howard and shows just how deep-seated the distrust of the Tories remains.

But there were peculiar factors which affected these elections - the high proportion of Muslim voters meant that anti-war parties like the Liberal Democrats were certain to do well

We suspect that such is the volatile mood of voters that there is all to play for in the next election. The truth is that the great majority no longer trust Mr Blair and will do anything to avoid voting for him.

No, the by-elections were not good news for the Tories. But that should not deflect from the fact that under Mr Howard's leadership they are for the first time in years cohering into a unified party with sensible and credible policies that are even beginning to set the political agenda.

Until now the Tories have been limited in what they say about the war because of their full support for it. But this week their leader's withering criticism of Mr Blair was forensic and scathing.

Now we know we were taken to war on a lie, Mr Howard has every right to represent the real anger that is now felt about the Government's deceit.