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Some months, the market makes it irresistible to go along with the mainstream idea that the nonfarm employment report is of towering importance, even if it remains the most overhyped and excessively dissected entry in the data cycle.

The first Fridays of both this month and last dawned on financial markets that were positioned quite similarly. This past week, the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index had closed the night before the report at 1365; the Thursday before the July 6 payroll release it finished at 1367. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was at 17.57, versus 17.50 a month earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.48% this time, 1.60% last. And, conveniently, heading into the data divulgement in both August and July, the consensus forecast was that 100,000 net new jobs had been created in the prior month.

A month ago, the news was a third straight disappointing number, initially reported as 80,000 new jobs. Last week, the surprise was to the upside, at 163,000. Friday, July 6, the S&P 500 dropped by 1% and the Treasury yield eased. This past Friday, stocks gained nearly 2% and government yields rose a bit.

Could it possibly be, as this neat yet highly imperfect contrast would suggest, that a swing of 83,000 roughly estimated jobs in an economy of more than 140 million employed persons justifies the S&P 500–meant to value the perpetual profit stream of Corporate America -- sitting some 2.6% higher today than it did after last month's report?

Of course not. But, for the tactical setters of short-term market values, the number was just good enough, for one day, to disturb the standard narrative of a second-half slump. Yet, crucially, with the unemployment rate ticking higher, the expectation of further Federal Reserve asset-buying exertions next month anchored itself more securely in traders' base-case scenario. Thus, the reflex buying.

With too much already said about this sure-to-be-revised monthly statistical quantum, here are a few far-below-the-headlines items that might fill in some pieces of the market mosaic:

• The Mortgage Bankers Association refinance index last week set its highest reading since April 2009. This is likely to be more helpful on the margin to household finances than was the 2009 surge, when both borrowers and bank balance sheets were more fragile and rejections were rife. This activity won't make or break the consumer economy. But it provides a tangible rebuttal to the many who insist that the Fed's rate-repressing efforts are futile or benefit only commodity speculators.

• The annualized growth rate of the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly leading indicator hit a nine-week high last week, though it remains in negative territory. The ECRI, a forecasting firm with a wide following for its claim of accurate recession predictions, is standing by its months-old assertion that the U.S. is, or soon will be, in another one. The WLI, however, is working tentatively against that call lately.

This is but one reason that the man known here as the "mystery broker" is sticking by his belief -- articulated back in late May with the S&P at 1302 -- that the market would recover to reach a new cycle high this summer. The former high of 1422 is but 2.3% above the current level. The broker notes that the much-discussed leadership of defensive sectors, such as telecommunications, utilities, and staples, is more bearish than not for the longer-term outlook, but can last for some time without a major market setback.

He argues that more cyclical areas will need to participate fully if the index is to significantly surpass its former high. On this front, he's keying on the PHLX Semiconductor Index, which now appears to have formed a decent base and needs to break higher to signal cyclical strength.

The broker's upbeat stance isn't open-ended. He's on board with the idea that the secular bear market remains in force, valuation expansion will be largely absent, and stocks will rise only as much as earnings grow. In the current cycle, he notes, the market seems to stall when the S&P's price/earnings multiple reaches 14. Based on expected 12-month earnings, it's now just over 13.