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Weather Blog: Looking ahead, June and July forecast

By Jeremy Nelson, WeatherWatch 12 Meteorologist

Published On: May 30 2013 10:50:18 AM CDT

Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 Blog! The start of Meteorological summer is right around the corner. With festival and vacation season about to kick into high gear it's time to look ahead at weather conditions for June and July.

Before we look at the forecast, let's review the averages in Milwaukee for June and July.

June

Rainfall 3.90"

Average High Low

1st 71 52

30th 79 62

July

Rainfall 3.67"

Average High Low

1st 79 62

31st 80 64

The June and July forecast breakdown in this blog is based on the LRC or Lezak's Recurring Cycle. The LRC is a weather pattern theory that states that a unique pattern sets up every fall. Once the pattern is set, it begins to cycle or repeat from fall through winter and into the following summer. The current LRC cycle has a duration of around 51-53 days. Knowing the cycle duration allows us to project forward and make forecasts weeks or months in advance.

Here are some of the weather highlights expected during June and July. Keep in mind not every weather event is included in this forecast, these are some of the features we are focusing on.

June 1-7June starts with a quick change in the forecast. A few showers will be possible June 1 followed by much cooler weather June 2-3.

This cooler part of the weather pattern most recently moved through the upper Midwest the second week of April. The 500mb(middle of the atmosphere) map below shows a trough of low pressure over the upper Midwest. Once again a trough will swing through dropping temperatures June 2-3.

Warmer temperatures should return around June 5-6 with a chance of showers and thunderstorms that may linger into June 7.

June 8-15

Cooler temperatures will again flow into the area around June 8 give or take a day. The threat for showers and thunderstorms may not stay out of the forecast for long. A chance of showers or thunderstorms will be possible around June 9-10. A few of these storms may be strong to severe. Ahead of the thunderstorms we should see a quick warm-up for a day.

Another push of cooler temperatures should follow around June 11-12.

The current LRC pattern supports extreme temperature changes with quick dips and fast warm-ups. That should be the case as milder temperatures return around June 13-14. As a front nears the area a chance of thunderstorms will be possible around June 15.

June 16-23

For this period we are going to focus on June 21-23. Let's take a look at the two previous cycles for comparison before going over the forecast.

The 500mb map for April 30, 2013 is shown below. The key features are a southwest flow over southern Wisconsin, and a trough of low pressure pushing into the northern Plains and Rockies. During this part of the pattern very warm temperatures surged into southeast Wisconsin. There was also a strong cold front that that dropped temperatures quickly to end the warm spell. A few thunderstorms also occurred.

Going back 52 days places us on March 9, 2013 when this feature was present. The map below shows the large trough over the northern Plains extending into the Rockies and Southwest. The milder southwest flow was again present over southern Wisconsin.

With the feature poised to return around June 21-23 the warmest temperatures that we see during June may occur during this timeframe. Most likely the warmest day would be either June 21 or 22. If highs reach 90 degrees during June, this may be one of the best opportunities.

A chance of showers and thunderstorms will also be possible as a cold front puts an end to the warmer temperatures. Cooler weather should take hold around June 23-24.

June 24-30

On average by weeks 3-4 of June season weather season peaks in southern Wisconsin. The Storm Prediction Center map below shows severe weather probabilities on June 24 based on events from 1982-2011.

The best chance for thunderstorms the final days of June will be around June 30. The month may close with a chance for strong to severe storms.

Ahead of the storms temperatures should warm around June 29-30.

July Overview

July brings one of the highlights of summer -- the 4th of July holiday. The question, what will the weather be like? One of the cooler parts of our cycling weather pattern will return to start July.

The last time through the pattern a large trough brought cool conditions to southeast Wisconsin. The 500mb map below is from May 12, 2013. This shows a large trough over the Great Lakes allowing cooler than average temperatures to settle in.

The cooler weather should begin around July 1 with a chance of showers and peak either July 2 or 3. The 4th of July looks to have near or below average temperatures. A quick warm-up should return around July 5-6. If you have the weekend of July 5-7 off, high temperatures look to be average or above average.

With the recent Memorial Day holiday being cold and drizzly, let's hope we somehow sneak milder temperatures in a day early for the 4th.

A quick glance at the rest of July shows warmer days around July 10-12 with cooler weather and potential showers/t-storms around July 13-14. A wetter period of weather possible July 21-23(also warmer during this time). Month ends with a good chance of showers/t-storms.

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June & July Forecast

Rainfall: Above Average

Temperatures: Near Average

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The weather pattern will begin to breakdown moving into August with a new and never before seen pattern setting up as we enter fall! The LRC continues to show its value as we provided an accurate 2012-2013 winter forecast, and pinpointed weather events weeks and months in advance from winter through summer.

For the latest weather information watch WISN 12 News, and for updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter @jnelsonweather

Have a great day!

Jeremy Nelson

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