UKIP up and Labour continue to slide in Wales

The figures, collected by ICM for BBC Wales, show that when questioned how they would vote in the next General Election, 14 per cent said UKIP, up from the 7 per cent the party recorded in the last BBC Wales/ICM poll published for St David’s Day.

The findings also put Labour on 38 per cent (down 4); the Conservatives on 23 per cent (down 1); the Liberal Democrats down 2 to 7 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 13 per cent, down 1.

According to Cardiff University’s Elections in Wales blog, if these figures were replicated universally across the country, they would find Labour picking up two seats to add to the 26 they won in Wales in 2010.

These seats would see the party take Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservatives would retain their current total of 8 seats, with the loss of Cardiff North compensated for by picking up Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats would hold just one of their current three seats in Ceredigion whilst Plaid Cymru would remain as they are on three seats.

Whilst the figures aren’t anywhere near close enough for UKIP to entertain ideas of picking up a seat in Wales, the blog nevertheless has a warning for the other parties that ‘UKIP support clearly is reaching the sort of levels where they might plausibly make a difference to who does win some seats’.

But worryingly for Ed Miliband, his Scottish problem seen during last week’s referendum seems to be being matched by an increasing problem in making the gains in Wales the party would be hoping for next year.

As Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University explains on the blog:

“ICM’s findings reinforce the point, made previously on this blog, that Labour support in Wales has slipped considerably over the past 18-24 months. In the four polls conducted in 2012, Labour’s general election vote share was always at or above 50 per cent. Both the last two have had it below 40 per cent. Indeed, it is notable that while Labour across Britain as a whole is running generally well ahead of the 29.0 per cent vote share it won at the 2010 general election….in Wales Labour’s support level is now only 2 per cent points above that gained in 2010.

“Two years ago, Ed Miliband could have confidently looked forward to Wales delivering him several seat gains at the general election; now, Welsh Labour’s seat harvest looks likely to be much smaller. That is probably the most important single message to come out of the recent polls on general election voting intention here in Wales.”

In stark contrast to YouGov findings just last week which put support for independence at 17 per cent, the BBC/ICM findings carried out after Scotland’s vote finds support for Wales going it alone sitting at just 3 per cent.

49 per cent of respondents have called for more powers for Cardiff Bay; 26 per cent said the current powers the Assembly has are sufficient as they are; 2 per cent believe the Assembly should have fewer powers whilst 12 per cent believe the Assembly should be abolished outright.

6 per cent of those who replied to the survey either didn’t know or had views that didn’t match any of the options provided.

Declaring support for independence to be the lowest he’d ever seen, Professor Scully said of this bit of the poll:

“There has been a clear move towards supporting more powers, and some of the people who may have said ‘independence’ have gone in that direction.

“We’re getting close to a majority saying they want things to go further. There are also pretty low levels of support for abolition of the assembly – the extreme positions are losing out.”

Meanwhile the pressure on the UK parties to reform the controversial Barnett Formula which they pledged to keep in their famous vow to the people of Scotland will increase as a result of the poll’s findings on attitudes to funding Wales.

With the Holtham Commission of 2009 having concluded that Wales was under-funded using the formula to the tune of £300 million a year, the BBC ICM findings show 71 per cent of people in Wales believing that changes are needed “because Wales loses out” to Scotland.

Responding to the poll findings, Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones yesterday warned that the UK government’s response to Scotland’s vote could lead to the complete break-up of the Union within ten years.

Outlining his frustrations that David Cameron had decided that the issue of future powers across the UK should be dealt with through a Cabinet sub-committee rather than a UK wide convention involving all the devolved governments, Jones told BBC Wales Week In, Week Out programme:

“If they don’t get this right in future – you can see the Scots coming back, being unhappy.

“In order to avoid all this and to keep UK together we need to have proper constitution for next centuries to come and work out where powers will be.

“If that isn’t done my great fear will be that in 10 years time in Scotland we’ll be back with another referendum and the result may well be different. That’s the lesson the establishment need to learn.”

160 Responses to “UKIP up and Labour continue to slide in Wales”

Leon Wolfeson

Keep blaming that mythic socialism, spewing hate when it’s both parties who have done poorly in schools, and your frantic attack on the University system just shows your determination to lower wages, as you rant about how we have higher wages than china.

Of course you spew that my not hating the UK as you do means I need “help”, as you talk about your class war on the poor, and say that not being a right wing fanatic like you is a disaster, as you boast about how your blood-red capitalists screw people, hard, every time for any profit you can make, at the expense of Britain.

Leon Wolfeson

I have absolutely zero influence in the Labour party, of course, since I am not a member or even a Labour voter, as things stand.

Labour’s problem is that they are not interested in the votes of moderate left wingers like myself, and indeed are actively repelling me by shadow-boxing with the Tories on policy rather than offering a clear alternative.

So you’re possible right, for completely the wrong reason. No surprises there.You are railing at a clear fact, that Holland did a lot of damage by being wishy-washy and sending mixed signals to business, which is one sure way to lose investment.

Oh, and thanks incidentally for the PC bigotry of “people like you”.

The_Average_Joe_UK

You are totally demented. A media studies degree from Crawley college University is a Labour party invention ignored by employers. This is a fact. If your university degree is from amywhere but a recognised institution its worth squat.

Your lot nearly killed this country in the 70’s you were smashed, there are a few of your saddo’s left but fortunately your a dying breed.

You are so full of hatred for anyone that employs people or management you cant see the wood from the trees.

Leon Wolfeson

Leon Wolfeson

Keep screaming those party-line insults, as you show you’re a far right social darwinist and totalitarian, unable to tolerate other ideologies, they’re automagically mental illness to you.

You keep saying it’s a fact the QCF does not exist, blah blah keep frantically talking down this country, which you evidently hate so much, as you make it plain YOU ignore degrees and just offer crap jobs.

You keep saying my “lot” (who you’re wrong about, of course) nearly conducted genocide, that you genocided us and you;re ater me blah blah..you’re in a fantasy land, as you blame me for your insecurity because of how badly you treat workers.

Dean

Ah but you have missed the point. His policies seem to be based on the assumption the rich will pay unlimited taxes. As we saw in France, when taxes get too high the rich move and total tax revenue decreases forcing taxes to be lowered.

The Labour manifesto is currently full of nonsense. They want to introduce a mansion tax and reintroduce the 50p rate of tax. This will somehow pay for NHS funding increases, more NHS nurses, school spending increases, public sector wage increases, bedroom tax reversal, benefits increases in line with inflation, home building, increased green energy subsidies, create 1 million green jobs, create more apprenticeships, young people’s senate etc… the list goes on and on and on.

You don’t need to be an economist (even though I am one) to see his proposals for increased spending are not properly costed. You will still have the same left-wing, Guardian-worshipping, wealth-bashing, socialist-loving idiots sucking it all up thinking it’s foolproof.

Instead of taxing the wealthy out of house and home which discourages ambition and job creation, Miliband should be encouraging wealth accumulation, investment and job creation. Forget making the rich people poorer, make the poor people richer.

Leon Wolfeson

Except, of course, increasing inequality has the opposite effect, as seen over and over. It simply screws the poor, and ends up with less money spent in the economy, dragging it down. “Investment” in low-wage industry is frequently a net loss for the state, since it needs to spend massive amounts propping up the workers.

The situation in France was not because of tax – the evidence is strongly that people don’t move their business, even if they themselves leave – but because of waffling on policy, which is what is absolutely lethal to investment. The Nordics show quite clearly what “mere” high tax does (people stay put, and moan and groan).

Labour need to invest, not huff and puff. And they need to make the rich pay a reasonable share of tax – that does not mean just income, but capital. And they need to ignore the whiners who have freeloaded on the UK for so long. Same goes for a living wage – freeloading business will need to pay their share, etc, and corporation tax should be paid, international tax dodging cracked down on across the EU and beyond, etc.

The UK is currently trapped in a downright lethal spiral of falling wage and productivity. We need something to be changed, quite radically (and I usually *hate* radical solutions). Something like a living wage and rent caps *might* do it, or the UK might make Greece look like a nice place to live**

(**Actually, Greece’s climate and very high rate of family house ownership meant the crisis there was nowhere near as bad as the same sort of crisis would be here…)

Labour is not offering a way out, frankly, and the Coalition seem blind to the effects of their policies. (And UKIP is the Coalition, harder, economically, so…)