Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

Is Brad Johnson a franchise QB?

Right now, from an overall career standpoint, Alex Smith isn't even a Brad Johnson according to pro-football-reference. However, looking at his last couple of years, his best years, he has topped Brad Johnson compared to Johnson's best two years when you look at QB rating.

If Reid and Dorsey believe that Alex Smith is on an upward trajectory careerwise, then we got him for a steal.

Anyway, here is an interesting article about draft picks based upon expected Career Approximate Values for each draft slot which argues that the current draft value chart is outdated and a new one needs to replace it. It was created by a Harvard economics student. The upshot of the value chart basically says that high draft picks are currently over-rated and mid-round draft picks are under-rated.

I dont want to trade Branden Albert
- But if we do...I want a 1st rd pick in return, and Joeckel has to be the first overall pick at that point.

If Albert stays, then the best option for KC is to trade down.

If they can't trade down, then the best option for KC is to draft Geno Smith, but only as trade bait for teams like Jax/Buf/Oak who openly publically have a hard on for that guy, and acquire more picks, including possibly getting back that 2nd rd pick (and more).

If they can't find a trade partner for Geno, then just keep Geno and have Alex Smith play out his contract and have Geno Smith learn the ropes and speed of the game and he can pick up the game running by then much like Rodgers did when Favre left.

Suppose we take Geno with the number one overall pick. What kind of career can we realistically expect from him? Realistically--if we actually use the statistics Geno fans like to toss around (especially those who hate Alex Smith)--statistics from www.pro-football-reference.com , we can, on average, expect Geno Smith-or any number 1 draft pick- to be Brad Johnson.

I think all we can really expect is a guy that come here an' by year 2 (at the latest) is ready to take over and has earned the chance to start. By year 3 you would expect a top 20 QB.

All this is the minimum expected of any top 10 QB pick...

__________________

Quote:

"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).

No. True fans do. They expect every QB prospect to be Andrew Luck. Otherwise, he's not worth taking a risk on. Better to have a safe investment, in case, God forbid, the QB busts and you end up 2-14 or something.

IF we had a mod with a sack between her legs, the thread would of been locked after Hamas dropped a Truth bomb on this message board...

Expectations? I would imagine that the only people who have expectations, realistic or otherwise, are his detractors. Most of the people in favor of him for the pick understand that although he was a fantastic player for three years and may be far and away the most talented QB in this draft, that's no guarantee for success at the next level. On the flip side most of the people in favor of him also understand that you can't ever draft a franchise quarterback if you don't ever actually attempt to try to draft a franchise quarterback. Most of the people in favor of him understand that we are in a unique position as a team, a position we've never found ourselves in before, where we would have had the opportunity to draft a potential franchise player without any chance at another team's interference.

But the key word there is "potential". Drafting Geno Smith, and the discussion of Geno Smith, has never been about expectations. It's been about potential. What he might be. Which, to bring Alex Smith into the discussion, is the area where the issue with his presence lies (at least for me): Alex Smith is a known quantity. He's a game manager with limited skills in the intermediate and deep passing game, a player who has established by this point that he needs to rely on a strong running game to limit mistakes and a defense to carry him to wins. The kind of quarterback that barely survives low scoring games. He is what he is, and it's pretty unlikely that he's going to become anything more than that at this point.

So the question becomes this: do you want a known quantity with limited upside for a fairly high price? A player who's middle of the pack at best, isn't likely to lead your team anywhere on his own merits, but also isn't likely to make a lot of costly mistakes. Or do you want an unknown quantity with both nearly limitless upside as well as a real risk for failure, at the highest price possible (well, short of trading up to 1)? A player that could be, in time, one of the tops at his position in the league, or...may never be.

In any event, it doesn't really matter; they made their choice.

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)

Great post, Keg.

And there's no "conspiracy theory" about it - there a quote floating around from Reid that said he had his eye on Alex Smith before he ever took the job.

Geno is ****ed, we're ****ed, Andy Reid is ****ed, John Dorsey is ****ed and Clark Hunt is ****ed.

We don't take Geno, and everyone loses.

He was meant to be here and our asshole GM and HC are spitting in the face of the football gods.

If they do shock the world and take Geno heads will explode.

Dorsey will be worshiped like a god.

Temples will be erected and at his parking space will be offerings of gold, frankincense and myrrh.

__________________

Quote:

"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."Denver rookie QB John Elway, on Jack Lambert, after Lambert and the Steelers knocked Elway out of his first game as a pro (1983).

And I'm admittedly a conspiracy nut, but I believe they made it before they even went through the process of evaluating this draft class. I think Alex Smith was a part of the lengthy day-long discussion Andy Reid had with Clark prior to KC hiring the coach, and I think making a strong move for him was a contingency of the hire. Which, if true, would be a real shame, because that would mean we'd anchored ourselves to him without even considering any other possibilities.

(This is just a personal theory, based on absolutely nothing but a gut feeling...)

Excellent post Your gut is very accurate and no you are not a conspiracy nut. You are just following the age old adage "ignore what they say BUT watch what they do" AND THEN put the pieces together.

When you are an owner sitting at 2-14 with the best fan base in the NFL that is about ready to commit a mutiny meltdown you will agree to just about anything especially from a previous very successful HC who has several playoff wins, a SB appearance and very good at developing QBs within the last 10yrs who btw ALSO sees a great opportunity with an owner in a very vulnerable situation with a team of good talent, with the No. 1 pick that he can pretty much continue to 'write is own ticket'. Andy ain't no dumb ass

Andy sold Clark on the fact that he can do even better than what Harbaugh did with Smith and will take Smith to an even higher level and Smith will be more successful under Andy's tutelage. Andy really believes this because let's back to that age old adage, "ignore what they say and watch what they do" (giving up a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year). You don't give up picks like that unless you 'really' believe you can improve Alex even further to get to the SB.

__________________"All real Americans love the sting of battle and may God have mercy on my enemies because I wont".

'Progressivism' is nothing more than a dressed up co-opted term for 'Marxism'.

Alex Smith had roster bonuses due. If we were going to take him, we had to before those bonuses kicked in... and had a chance to fully evaluate the QB's in the draft class. We have too good of a team in place to not hedge our bets with Alex.

If Geno grades out... I think we take him.

Even though we already had the #1 overall pick, a 1st/2nd/and a conditional is not too much money to invest in the most important position on the football team.

Alex Smith had roster bonuses due. If we were going to take him, we had to before those bonuses kicked in... and had a chance to fully evaluate the QB's in the draft class. We have too good of a team in place to not hedge our bets with Alex.

If Geno grades out... I think we take him.

Even though we already had the #1 overall pick, a 1st/2nd/and a conditional is not too much money to invest in the most important position on the football team.

Many teams have spent far more than that.

My expectations are what Keg outlined at that point.

Are you ignoring recent developments?

Albert is out of here.

We're taking Joeckel.

Best case scenario we trade down and pick one of the other OTs and get someone else in the 2nd.