Ten things we've learned from the Conservative party conference

The Conservatives spent all week trying to assert their own 'one nation' credentials. Photograph: Jon Super/AP

1. 'White van' Conservatism is now the dominant ideology in the party

The phrase comes from Robert Halfon, the Harlow MP, but other Tories talk about blue collar Conservatism or helping the "strivers", and Eric Pickles puts it in terms of Essex values. Alternatively, you could call it Tabloid Toryism, or just Thatcherism. It's the thread that binds together all the main announcements at the conference, such as curbs on benefit claimants, the "stab-a-burglar" law, tougher punishments for offenders and the council-tax freeze. Individually, these policies may be quite popular, but collectively they depict a grim picture of Britain, which is why the "nasty party" label has been heard again in Birmingham. There was almost nothing at the conference about quality of life issues and David Cameron's "let sunshine rule the day" is now just a distant memory.

They believe it is an empty marketing slogan and it is clear they are going to fight Labour in 2015 exactly as they did in 2010 – by attacking the party as financially irresponsible. The Conservatives have spent all week trying to assert their own one nation credentials although, as George Osborne made clear in his speech, there's a difference between their one nation and Labour's. Theirs is for strivers; benefit claimants who lie in bed with the "blinds down" instead of going to work aren't included.

3. The 'big society' is over

It was Cameron's big idea at the 2010 election, but even then it was a hard sell electorally and prolonged austerity seems to have finished it off.

We're told that Cameron is going to reaffirm his commitment to the idea in his speech later. But, without having read the speech, it is hard to see how this will amount to much more than a concession to nostalgia. No one else has been talking about the big society at the conference and, as an ideological frame for policy, it seems to have collapsed.

4. The Conservatives are more worried than Labour about the threat to Britain's long-term economic future posed by globalisation

William Hague made this point on the Today programme on Wednesday but that doesn't mean it's not true. At Labour's conference very little was said about the impact of competition from China, but figures like Hague and Osborne have been issuing dire warnings about European countries being condemned to poverty if they fail to keep up with the Asian economic superpowers and Cameron is going to say the same thing in his speech later. This case is set out in detail in Britannia Unchained, a new book by five 2010-intake Tory MPs. It's a key text in the party at the moment although, as my colleague Paul Owen found when he attended a Britannia Unchained fringe, some of its conclusions are unpalatable.

5. Boris Johnson is the most potent force in Conservative politics (maybe even British politics) but he has postponed a challenge to David Cameron

Johnson's reception at Birmingham was extraordinary – even Bill Clinton at Labour in 2002 failed to generate so much excitement – and, through some unholy alchemy involving ego, wit, optimism and good cheer, he has become a figure who transcends party politics. He said nothing incompatible with white van Conservatism, but his speech was the most uplifting we've heard all week because it was relentlessly positive. Johnson was loyal to Cameron, and insisted he would not try to get elected to parliament before 2016, although, with glorious chutzpah, he actually included a joke in his conference speech about how he sometimes breaks his promises. Cameron should be worried. But Labour should worry about Johnson too.

6. Cameron has averted a rebellion over Europe

Europe was tipped as a conference flashpoint, but, although the subject kept coming up in fringe meetings, there were no public rows. Cameron has come closer to announcing a referendum on the EU, and, broadly, his party seems happy with this.

7. Council tax increases have become politically unpalatable – which suggests the system is bust

In one of the most expensive announcements of the week (although one which received relatively little media attention), the Tories announced that they will fund a council-tax freeze for another year. In Scotland the SNP also refuses to sanction council-tax increases. Taxpayers benefit in the short term, but councillors find central interference of this kind infuriating and it means that the existing local-government funding model is becoming unworkable.

8. Internal Conservative party modernisation has stalled

The Labour MP Phil Wilson once said Labour won an election on 1 May 1997 and stopped reforming the party on 2 May 1997. The same thing has happened to the Conservative party since 2010. What has happened to the A-list? Or to open primaries? There have also been complaints about the efficiency of the party machine and having a party chairman who has spent the week avoiding jibes about Michael Green hasn't helped either.

If he thought that by avoiding the conference he could make the controversy about his anti-police rant blow over, he was wrong. When he appeared on a video shown at the Johnson rally on Monday night, members cheered ironically, as if he were an object of derision. For reasons that Graeme Archer explains quite well on his Telegraph blog, the conference has illustrated just how much damage Mitchell has done to the party and there are now strong suggestions that he will soon resign.

10. The Conservatives are not optimistic about their prospects in the police commissioner elections

Next month most voters in England and Wales will get the chance to take part in what is virtually a nationwide poll. You would expect the party to be on full election alert. But, generally, the Tories have not been showcasing their candidates and the elections only received a modest slot in the conference programme. That suggests expectations are low. The Tories have also written off Corby, which is why Louise Mensch was loudly booed when she appeared in a video at the Johnson rally.