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Not surprising. Considering AA's issues, I'd brace for more hiring "hiccups". Again, ANY claim of flow in X or Y years is simply assumption and usually on the best assumptions. It's still curious how they are forecasting the loss of several hundred pilots over the next 6-9 months with hiring. My guess is when hiring does resume, it will be at slower rates to bleed AA down by that much by end of year. That brings up another question and that is since AA pilot ranks are forecast to decrease and AA pilots are already being milked to maximum flying levels, how will AA jack up their revenues and thus profits ?

“Appears the flow has stopped...
Temporarily! In the mean time, AA keeps hiring off the street.😡”

This is false. If AA hires, Envoy flows. If AA doesn’t hire, Envoy doesn’t flow. Stick to the facts, and try to brush up your ESL.

I most be right, because you are starting to panic!
So, you agree that AA is over staffed by 2,500 pilots? That’s no good for the flow as well as a huge AA displacement bid. Why are you so scare of not been able to sell the flow? Relax, my little friend, and welcome to the big leagues. Remember the flow is contractual and the flow will always work...as long as AA keeps hiring. And there is the big problem. But, don’t worry, 2021 is just around the corner, and the truth will surface, all by itself. Let’s see who is the last man standing, your bluffs or my Facts. For now keep selling the flow, but you are not doing a good job and Doug Parker is not going to make it any easier for you either.

Let me know when you want to talk about the 737. And how it could affect the flow too. Or a possible merger and that my little friend, definitely is not going to help you sell the flow for a long time.

Do your homework, maybe that will open your eyes, and make you realize...AA will never be the same.

Don’t become a Dacuj, because every time he posts, truth comes out to the surface and possible new hires decide to go somewhere else. And I know you can do better than that.🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Pilots don’t like to be lied, honest people tell the truth. How honest are you?

Or the economy tanking, or another 9/11. Lots of bad things can happen, which is good to talk about and keep in mind when making your decisions. Also keeping in mind that 3/4 of the AA pilot group retires by 2032.

That being said,

You saying the DEC and RTP programs have been halted, and saying the flow has stopped while AA hires off the street, are lies.

I’m not cheerleading the flow or the company, but why make stuff up? There’s enough things to bitch and be worried about.

Or the economy tanking, or another 9/11. Lots of bad things can happen, which is good to talk about and keep in mind when making your decisions. Also keeping in mind that 3/4 of the AA pilot group retires by 2032.

That being said,

You saying the DEC and RTP programs have been halted, and saying the flow has stopped while AA hires off the street, are lies.

I’m not cheerleading the flow or the company, but why make stuff up? There’s enough things to bitch and be worried about.

Ok my friend, I want you to do something, do the homework, make it your masterpiece, and keep this quote of yours in mind....

“3/4 of the AA pilot group retires by 2032.”

Please, like I said, make this homework of yours...
Your masterpiece. And if you stick to the facts you will find the truth.

I really hope you are very close to flow, I really do.

The worst part is company keep playing ENY MEC like a fiddler, and they are falling for it.

I’m hearing a reduction of something like 400 pilots at AA. Not a bombshell, but ANY reduction is concerning and raises questions. Then there’s about 300+ S80 pilots displacing into the system and concurrently with a pilot reduction. One wonders what the downline displacements will look like. Then again, they may just elect to carry overages until things balance out. Too early to tell the ramifications of this latest development, but it falls in line with an airline that seems to be running out of options and has begun burning the furniture to heat the house.

A transient blip or the canary in the coal mine of a systemic meltdown coming, that is the major question. We cannot answer that for sure now, only watch with wonder and concern.

I’m hearing a reduction of something like 400 pilots at AA. Not a bombshell, but ANY reduction is concerning and raises questions. Then there’s about 300+ S80 pilots displacing into the system and concurrently with a pilot reduction. One wonders what the downline displacements will look like. Then again, they may just elect to carry overages until things balance out. Too early to tell the ramifications of this latest development, but it falls in line with an airline that seems to be running out of options and has begun burning the furniture to heat the house.

A transient blip or the canary in the coal mine of a systemic meltdown coming, that is the major question. We cannot answer that for sure now, only watch with wonder and concern.

Would you say AA is understaffed or overstaffed at the moment? Do you think they should be hiring, or do you think new hires should be worried about furloughs?

Would you say AA is understaffed or overstaffed at the moment? Do you think they should be hiring, or do you think new hires should be worried about furloughs?

Definitely understaffed in most statuses from all reports, the S80 in DFW being an exception although utilization has gone up since the grounding of the max. But, that’s based on present ops. No way to tell for sure what their future staffing plans or needs are as it depends where they are taking AA. The future does provide options for transfer of a significant amount of flying away from AA to elsewhere, if needed or desired though. If it went to the Eagle system, it would mean a scope change by agreement or under certain circumstances, by force. Dressing up AA for a sale or partial fragmentation ?

Maybe.

Furlough to the street ? I’ve said before it’s my belief AA won’t furlough unless it’s a dire situation industry wide (very dire) or (more likely) AA specifically goes in a new direction with scope in the future and in that case, it wouldn’t really be a furlough unless one chose it voluntarily for whatever reason, like military, etc. In the latter scenario, I would expect stagnation to be the most likely as AA contracts at the rate of retirement attrition (AKA “furlough off the top”). Actually, considering the latest pilot staffing projections, they’re doing that already. AA seems to be going in the opposite direction of the rest of the industry. They are now shrinking their pilot count, their profits are declining or at best seem likely to be periodically stagnant in the future at underperforming metric levels, their product is deteriorating from most reports, their debt equals Delta, United and Southwest combined or thereabouts and they seem to have few options for expanding or alternately “rightsizing” their ops due to scope. They are avoiding competition outside their three biggest stronghold hubs by shifting assets away from them, especially to DFW and CLT where they have monopolies. In DFW’s case, it’s mostly RJ’s. Labor relations are at an all-time low with little interest in acknowledgement, let alone correction.

I just don’t see much hope for robust competition in the future, instead simply what appears (once again) to be a withering airline that has muddied its brand up to the point it doesn’t know what it is and neither do its customers and has allowed its product to founder. Word I hear is an increasing number of business flyers are bailing and plan to gradually cash in their miles until gone. It can go on for a few years like this just as it has in the past, but the destination if not altered is a known quantity. The next 2-3 years are critical as their expenses are at max and don’t decline until 2021-22. A significant global, industry or AA event could be truly bad news for AA and they are very vulnerable during this period. Even then if they can hang on, the product isn’t likely to improve as a few more years of the present labor discord will have caused permanent damage. If scope is busted and significant outsourcing occurs then, even if their debt is declining and they have new competitive options and associated financing, it won’t change morale and in a service industry, that IS the product. I wish I had a different outlook, believe me. I guess I’ve never been one to “whistle past the cemetery” instead choosing to face unpleasant presentations head on. The argument for the merger was to merge two airlines with no future place in the industry being neither “fish nor fowl” (quality legacy or competitive LCC) and the merger hasn’t changed that IMO, just made AA a larger directionless bottom feeder.

Actually, considering the latest pilot staffing projections, they’re doing that already. AA seems to be going in the opposite direction of the rest of the industry. They are now shrinking their pilot count,

I could be wrong, but that’s my take given the facts I see.

A buddy says this isn’t true. He said they have a bid open now with pilot head count forecast. He said six month forecast shows increase

A buddy says this isn’t true. He said they have a bid open now with pilot head count forecast. He said six month forecast shows increase

He said they are also on their hiring glide slope.

Well, I've gotten different info on pilot headcount projections from yours then. As for hiring, I guess their ILS is geared to not hiring in some months. Then again, glideslopes always lead down, not up.

Well, I've gotten different info on pilot headcount projections from yours then. As for hiring, I guess their ILS is geared to not hiring in some months. Then again, glideslopes always lead down, not up.

In 8 months 2,000 pilotos less. From 15,570 to 13,800 in March 2020. I think his approach plate is upside down.

your numbers are off. He said there are approximately 14,810 total pilots on the seniority he list today.

He said there has been no communication about a reduction in force. He said the staff sizing forecast increases over the next six months. And that was just published last week

Info I've gotten says by next March, pilot projection is about 13,400. That doesn't include those on disability, management, etc. Info I got said there was something like 150-200 fewer Captains jobs and a little more then that for F/O. I could be wrong, but that was the info I got.

Info I've gotten says by next March, pilot projection is about 13,400. That doesn't include those on disability, management, etc. Info I got said there was something like 150-200 fewer Captains jobs and a little more then that for F/O. I could be wrong, but that was the info I got.

What a load of smack. The "info you got" is just you pulling out of your rear end and it's just flat wrong dude. You've been predicting doom and demise for years now and none of it is true. The noot idiot tries to call me out for not providing anything of SUBSTANCE, which I have provided for years now all the while he clickbaits this f***** forum with his BS that has ZERO substance. I've provided new hire class numbers for the longest time, fleet and basing plans, the whole 9 yards. You? Same old story jack. "Coming down the glideslope with the shaker going off and out of altitude." Really, really bad analogies on your part brah but when you Q in at less than 100, that's expected.

14,810 IS the correct number on the list. You don't know because YOU DON'T EVEN WORK HERE! That's why. Sure, there will be some training delays over the coming months which could slow things down slightly in training only BUT NOT THE FLOW. What else do you expect when you park a WHOLE FLEET TYPE!

What a load of smack. The "info you got" is just you pulling out of your rear end and it's just flat wrong dude. You've been predicting doom and demise for years now and none of it is true. The noot idiot tries to call me out for not providing anything of SUBSTANCE, which I have provided for years now all the while he clickbaits this f***** forum with his BS that has ZERO substance. I've provided new hire class numbers for the longest time, fleet and basing plans, the whole 9 yards. You? Same old story jack. "Coming down the glideslope with the shaker going off and out of altitude." Really, really bad analogies on your part brah but when you Q in at less than 100, that's expected.

You're losing control again. If you look at the 6 month forecast on the October 2019 vacancy bid, it shows 13,378 pilots for March 2020. Again, I assume that only includes operating crew members. Only facts here Brah. No hype, no spin, no con, no B.S., no smoke, no crap, no garbage. Sorry this fries your cable, but that's life. Nice try at hoping to garner a little credibility, but IMO EPIC fail.

Originally Posted by Dacuj:52562

14,810 IS the correct number on the list. You don't know because YOU DON'T EVEN WORK HERE! That's why. Sure, there will be some training delays over the coming months which could slow things down slightly in training only BUT NOT THE FLOW. What else do you expect when you park a WHOLE FLEET TYPE!

Now making excuses for EXACTLY what I periodically predicted......flow slowing and/or stopping for various lengths of time ? I don't work at AA ? Why just a few weeks ago, you had it on good authority I am an AA F/A. You mean your latest proclamation is now relegated to crapola status like the "bitter old man" story ? Sounds like it since I now don't work for AA again. You need to get your scam's straight.