Emmy Awards: Who's Predicted to Win Tonight

The 2016 Emmys will be upon us in 48 short hours, which means it's time to start casting your final prediction ballots. Do newcomers like Mr. Robot and Master of None stand a chance against Game of Thrones and Veep? Will The People v. O.J. Simpson win literally every award it's eligible for? Here are our predictions for the 10 major categories.

Outstanding Comedy Series

The Americans

Better Call Saul

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards

Mr. Robot

This is a toss-up between Game of Thrones and Mr. Robot, and will come down to whether the Emmys choose to reward an existing favorite or a breakthrough player. Game of Thrones had arguably its best season to date this year, garnering 23 nominations overall. The show won this award in 2015 for the less-loved Season 5, so its chances of a repeat win are good. On the other hand, Mr. Robot has a ton of buzz, won the Globe for Best Drama back in January, and is nominated for its near-perfect first season rather than its patchier second.

Predicted winner:Game of Thrones

HBO

Outstanding Comedy Series

Black-ish

Master of None

Modern Family

Silicon Valley

Transparent

Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Veep

This category's tougher to call—Modern Family's winning streak finally ended last year when Veep took the prize, and there are a couple of new nominees in play this year (Black-ish and Master of None) which could break through. But Veep will probably win again, since its focus on the absurdities of American politics has never felt more timely than in 2016.

Predicted winner: Veep

HBO

Outstanding Limited Series

American Crime

Fargo

The Night Manager

The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Roots

The People v. OJ Simpson is unbeatable here—it earned 22 nominations overall, so it clearly has the Emmy support to match its critical acclaim and mainstream buzz. In the era of "peak true crime television," it was the perfect marriage of a rich subject and a smart creative team, and not even FX's other contender Fargo (which controversially beat True Detective back in 2014) has a chance of upsetting it.

Predicted winner: The People v. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story

FX

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Matthew Rhys, The Americans

Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Newcomer Rami Malek has a huge amount of support—he's the only actor in this category to also receive Golden Globe, SAG and Critics' Choice nominations—and his role on Mr. Robot is uniquely demanding. The show's first season takes place more or less inside his head, driven entirely by Malek's remarkably nuanced performance and voiceover, and it's hard to imagine even a veteran like Spacey beating him.

Predicted winner: Rami Malek, Mr. Robot

USA Network

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland

Viola Davis, How to Get Away With Murder

Taraji P. Henson, Empire

Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

Keri Russell, The Americans

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Taraji P Henson losing out to Viola Davis last year was something of a surprise—not because Davis wasn't deserving, but because of the stratospheric buzz around Empire and Cookie specifically—and this year Davis (like Malek) bagged SAG, Globe and Critics' Choice nominations, so she could be in line for a repeat win. But Robin Wright had a phenomenal House of Cards season that placed her more in the spotlight than ever. The Netflix drama has been nominated for multiple Emmys every year since its debut, but has never won in an acting category before, and Wright has the strongest chance yet in her field.

Predicted winner: Robin Wright, House of Cards

Netflix

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish

Aziz Ansari, Master of None

Will Forte, Last Man on Earth

William H. Macy, Shameless

Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Jeffrey Tambor will probably repeat his win from last year. His only real competition is probably Aziz Ansari, who has the shiny newcomer edge and a stellar submission episode from Master of None—but Ansari is more or less playing himself, whereas Tambor's role is a true transformation. That's likely to give him the edge.

Predicted winner: Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

Amazon Studios

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Laurie Metcalf, Getting On

Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish

Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer

Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

Julia Louis-Dreyfus has won this award for the past four consecutive years, and while Veep is still around and maintaining its quality, it'll take a pretty exceptional contender to dethrone her. There's no clear standout this year, and it's hard to imagine a scenario where she doesn't take home a fifth Emmy.

Predicted winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

HBO

Outstanding Television Movie

A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

All the Way (HBO)

Confirmation (HBO)

Luther (BBC One)

Sherlock: The Abominable Bride (PBS)

HBO will take this one way or the other, and the Bryan Cranston-starring Lyndon B. Johnson biopic All The Way is more likely to win than Confirmation, which told the story of Anita Hill's sexual harassment claims against Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. Both received largely positive reviews, but the Emmys love Cranston, and since he's unlikely to win in his category this feels like a safe bet.

Predicted winner:All The Way

HBO

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Bryan Cranston, All the Way

Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: The Abominable Bride

Idris Elba, Luther

Cuba Gooding Jr., The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager

Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

A two-horse race between Hiddleston and Vance, and Vance—who played OJ's slippery showman of a lead defense attorney, Johnnie Cochran has the edge. Neither actor has any proven pull with Emmy voters, but Vance is a TV veteran whose performance was consistently praised, in contrast to Gooding Jr, who drew more mixed reviews for his portrayal of O.J.

Predicted winner: Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

FX

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Kirsten Dunst, Fargo

Felicity Huffman, American Crime

Audra McDonald, Lady Day at Emerson's Bar & Grill

Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Lili Taylor, American Crime

Kerry Washington, Confirmation

If anyone other than Sarah Paulson wins here, it might be the single biggest surprise in Emmy history. Her performance as beleaguered prosecutor Marcia Clark was widely hailed as the highlight of an already formidable cast, and she's been Emmy-nominated for the last four years running, so she's overdue for a win.

Predicted winner: Sarah Paulson, The People vs. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

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