Two years ago, the San Diego Padres embarked on an off season that left many to believe they were going to be a legitimate contender. Prior to the 2015 season, the Padres made trades for outfielders Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, signed starting pitcher James Shields and traded for star closer Craig Kimbrel. They also added catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Will Middlebrooks, but none of that mattered as the team's chemistry was historically bad. Bad enough for the Padres to finish at 74-88 and for the team's play to cost nine year manager Bud Black his job. The following off season saw Upton leave for the Detroit Tigers as a free agent and starting pitcher Ian Kennedy to leave for the Kansas City Royals. General Manager AJ Preller then traded the likes of Kemp, Kimbrel and contemporary first baseman Yonder Alonso, second baseman Jedd Gyorko and pitcher Andrew Cashner, getting some good returns, but not enough to excite people into thinking the Padres will start playing winning baseball anytime soon. The Padres will start their second season under manager Andy Green, himself just 39 years-old. The Pads finished 2016 with a 78-94 record, one which matched their level of competitiveness. One positive was the performance of first baseman Myers, who hit 28 home runs and made his first All Star team. Another first for Wil was the fact that he made it through a full season without hitting the disabled list. Second baseman Ryan Schimpf hit 20 home runs last season and hope is that young top prospects Hunter Renfroe (right field), Manuel Margot (center field) and Austin Hedges (catcher) can immediately help this season. If not, it expects to be a long season for the Padres, but one that could be productive from a player development perspective. Right hand pitcher Anderson Espinosa came over from the Boston Red Sox last season in a trade for left handed pitcher Drew Pomeranz. He ranks as MLB's 25th best prospect while former Red Sox OF Margot ranks as the game's 23rd. RF Renfroe ranks 42 while right handed pitcher Cal Quantrill, son of former MLB reliever Paul, ranks number 97. It is reasonable for the Padres to see Espinosa and Quantrill this season as they look to incorporate some youth into a rough looking pitching staff. That being said, it is most likely both could be up closer to September. First baseman Josh Naylor came over in the Cashner trade last season from Miami. The pitching staff as it currently sits seems like San Diego's Achilles heel. If you average five innings over the course of 162 games, that means a team needs 810 innings from a series of pitchers. Coming into the off season, the Padres Luis Perdomo (9 wins, 10 losses, 5.71 earned run average with a team high just under 147 innings pitched) and Christian Friedrich (5-12, 4.80) were the best representation of the Padres holdovers. The signed left hander Clayton Richard towards the end of last season and Richard pitched really well in nine starts. The Padres will attempt to fill those 810 innings with free agent signings Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, Jered Weaver and Jarred Cosart in addition to Perdomo, Friedrich and Richard. Perhaps the Padres will look to use their starters in shorter segments to better combat match up disadvantages. With all these questions, every idea has to be considered.The Padres bullpen will be led by reliever Brandon Maurer (72 K's in just less than 70 IP) and Carter Capps, who is attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery. Left handed reliever Brad Hand (4-4, 2.92, 82 games pitched) and right handed reliever Ryan Buchter (3-0, 2.86, 67 games) both pitched pretty well last season and could be part of a better than anticipated bullpen if Capps and Maurer pitch well. In all honesty, Capps can be an intriguing pitcher for them. He has more of a closer's mentality than Maurer. Perhaps the latter can improve on his 2016 season, which left some to be desired. The Padres lineup is led by their one positive 2015 season acquisition, Myers. Yangervis Solarte (.286, 15, 71 in just 109 games) is Myers most proven protection in the batting order. The future looks good with Margot, Renfroe and Hedges but the trio combined to play in 10, 11 and 8 games, respectively, in the 2016 season. Schimpf hit his 20 home runs in just 89 games and GM Preller is still looking for a competitive option to challenge shortstop incumbent Luis Sardinas. Outfielders Alex Dickerson and Travis Jankowski will start the year in left and center and both will compete for the starting left field job once Margot is ready to play every day. Going with Margot as the starting center fielder, this is the lineup I would use to start the season- Margot CF, Solarte 3B, Schimpf 2B, Myers 1B, Renfroe RF, Hedges C, Jankowski LF, Sardinas SS. Veterans Erick Aybar, Collin Cowgill, Tony Cruz, Jabari Blash and Brett Wallace are all in camp with the intention of making this roster. They likely have a chance to be the Padres bench this coming season. Dickerson and Corey Spangenberg have the best opportunity to provide depth if there is an injury in camp. The Padres future looks a lot brighter than it did a year ago. Fans should be excited over the young players who will be playing every day but should be a little cautious over what they see immediately. Perhaps Hedges, Margot, Renfroe and others may need a little more seasoning before they can be the assumed future of the franchise. Manager Green has his hands full in his second season behind the bench. The Padres over/ under number is set at 64.5 and I think it is a fairly accurate one in a season where I disagree with a lot of the O/U's. I still go with the under, having the Padres at 62-100, last place in the National League West division.

After another exciting (and relatively quick) off season, baseball has picked up once again in the states of Florida and Arizona. For every team, this is the time of the year that all teams can have high expectations for themselves. Even those teams who are on rebuilding paths can ponder what things could look like if everything falls into place. All the national pundits have put together their predictions, some creating a "formula" in which they put all these computer generated stats into a program that spits out the results for each of the 30 teams. If any stock could be put into this, perhaps the players could just stop showing up knowing the results were already calculated for them. Why even put on the uniform? Others simply look at the teams that made the postseason the season before and predict the same thing will happen. According to these "experts," the good teams will be good once again and the bad teams can be counted on to be bad. All these predictors have to do is look at last season's results, where six of the ten postseason teams did not make it the prior season. Most predictions have some thought behind them, and because of that need to be respected. So many things will happen over the course of a full season that no human being could see coming. That is what makes this game so great. The San Diego Padres were given the crown as champions of the 2014-2015 off season. New general manager AJ Preller went in and went in hard, having as aggressive an off season as any front office executive in all of baseball. While many were convinced the Padres had turned the corner (myself included), many were also skeptical that a team bringing in so many new players, Matt Kemp, Will Myers, Justin Upton, James Shields, Craig Kimbrel, Will Middlebrooks, Derek Norris... would not be able to develop the cohesion needed to function as a true "team." As the season unfolded, those who questioned how a group of players assembled at one time would blend into a melting pot were completely correct. The Padres finished 74-88, forth place in the National League West division. Longtime manager Bud Black was scapegoated and let go 55 games into the season. Former Arizona State University baseball coach Pat Murphy took over for Black and it did not change the results. In fact, the Padres managed to lose 21 of their final 31 games. The Padres got their off season started my naming their new manager, former big league infielder Andy Green. Former Cardinals and Dodgers hitting coach Mark McGwire joined the team as their new bench coach. Kimbrel was dealt to the Boston Red Sox for four young players. The Padres also dealt first baseman Yonder Alonso, second baseman Jedd Gyorko and reliever Joaquin Benoit and let free agents Upton, Ian Kennedy and Shawn Kelley leave for other opportunities. The Padres key off season moves were acquiring outfielder Jon Jay (.210 batting average, 1 home run, 10 runs batted in, .563 on base plus slugging in just 79 games) from the St. Louis Cardinals in the Gyorko trade and left hander Drew Pomeranz (5 wins, 6 losses, 3.63 earned run average, 82 strikeouts in 86 innings pitched) from the Oakland Athletics in the Alonso trade The Padres also signed free agent shortstop Alexei Ramirez (.259, 10, 62, .642) from the Chicago White Sox and pitcher Carlos Villenueva (4-3, 2.95 in 35 games) came over from St. Louis after a solid breakout season with the Cardinals. Longtime MLB closer Fernando Rodney (7-5, 4.74, 16 saves for Seattle and Chicago Cubs), assumes the role for the 2016 Padres. Even with the loss of Kennedy (9-15, 4.28, 174 Ks, just over 168 IP) to the Kansas City Royals, the Padres still possess a strong front three led by Shields (13-7, 3.91, 216 Ks, just over 202 IP). Tyson Ross (10-12, 3.26, 212 Ks, 196 IP) continues to develop as a top pitcher and is a solid number two behind Shields. Andrew Cashner (6-16, 4.34, 165 Ks, just under 185 IP) had a down season but has long been considered an ace in the making. Up to this point though, it seems like the Cubs got the best of that trade getting first baseman Anthony Rizzo. 25 year old Brandon Maurer (7-4, 3.00 in 53 games out of the bullpen) will be joining the starting rotation with Villenueva the favorite to round out the starting five. The projected forth and fifth Padres pitched in a total of 88 games last season, 0 of them starts. Right hander Colin Rea and left hander Robbie Erlin will be there as depth pieces and either can logically start the season in the Padres rotation. The most interesting pitcher to watch in Arizona for the Padres will be the seemingly always injured Brandon Morrow. Morrow has not pitched anywhere near a full season since 2012 when it seemed like he was coming into his own with the Toronto Blue Jays. Since then, the 2006 number five overall draft pick has had a difficult time staying on the field dealing with a series of arm, shoulder, finger and elbow injuries. It would be a great story if he can remain back on the field and throw back time to 2012. Rodney and Pomeranz will attempt to configure the back of the Padres bullpen with Nick Vincent (0-1, 2.35, 26 games), Jon Edwards (0-0, 3.38, 11 games) and Kevin Quackenbush (3-2, 4.01, 57 games) all vying for prominent roles. The Padres signed left hander Matt Thornton (2-1, 2.18, 60 games) and right hander Casey Janssen (2-5, 4.95, 48 games) as free agents from the Nationals to add some leadership to what looks like a young middle of the bullpen. Former Mets farmhand Cory Mazzoni and right hander Cesar Vargas are also names to consider as well as non roster invitees Frank Garces (0-1, 5.41, 40 games) and Daniel McCutchen. Rule 5 pick Luis Perdomo will likely make the team as a 12th pitcher. The Padres lost 26 home runs from their lineup with Upton leaving to join the Detroit Tigers. Second baseman Gyorko hit 16 last season and Alonso has double digit HR ability. With all three leaving the team (the last two via trade), the Padres middle of the order is going to consist of Kemp (.265, 23, 100, .755) and Myers (.253, 8, 25, .763 in 60 games). Hope is that Myers can stay on the field all season and the Padres are hoping to preserve his legs by playing him at first base everyday (part of the reason Alonso was dealt). Melvin Upton Jr (formerly BJ) gets a legit opportunity to be the team's everyday center fielder after hitting a respectable .257, 5, 17, .757 in 87 games last year. Jay put up some terrible numbers in 2015 but he was injured. The Padres hope Jay can return to his career numbers which include a .287 batting average and a .738 OPS. The trade of Gyorko opens the door for second baseman Cory Spangenberg (.271, 4, 21, .733). Spangenberg looks like a pure hitter and should see his batting average and OPS rise with consistent playing time. Norris (.250, 14, 62, .709) will become a middle of the order necessity. Ramirez and Yangervis Solarte (.273, 14, 63, .748) will make up the left side of the infield. The Padres lineup I would go with is Jay LF, Spangenberg 2B, Norris C, Kemp RF, Myers 1B, Solarte 3B, Ramirez SS, Upton CF. Former top 50 prospect (2009, 2010) Brett Wallace will get some time at first base as well as third base as a backup. Alex Dickerson looks to be next on the depth chart to play the outfield. He put up some good numbers (.307, .877 OPS, 71 RBI) for Triple- A El Paso). Jay, of course, can play center when Upton is not there. Top catching prospect Austin Hedges is looking to improve on hitting major league pitching after struggling during his 2015 taste. Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe are the Padres top outfield prospects. Margot came over in the Kimbrel trade and Renfroe was drafted by the Padres a couple of years ago. Rea, like I mentioned before, has a chance to make the opening day roster if he impresses this spring. The most intriguing prospect in the Padres system is shortstop Ruddy Giron. A plus defender, the 18 year old hit .285 in Fort Wayne of the Midwest League. Odds are, if he backs up his 2015 with a solid year in 2016, I think he has a chance to make the Padres 2017 roster as their starting shortstop. Perhaps he is up in September. The Padres had extremely high expectations in 2015 and did not back them up. Maybe the opposite can happen this season. The Padres still possess a strong starting three in their rotation and if they get anything from Morrow, Maurer or Perdomo, they can be in a position to compete with anybody in the National League West division. Their offense is weak and they need a lot from Myers, Norris and the emergence of Spangenberg if they want to have a major league lineup. Las Vegas has the Padres right where they finished last season, at 74 as their over/ under. I am taking the over as I have San Diego at 78-84, forth place in the National League West.

I am not breaking any news when I say that the San Diego Padres won the 2014-2015 off season. I don't feel that it was particularly for the trades for Matt Kemp, Will Myers and Justin Upton. The Padres have had a difficult time identifying itself with what they were about. A series of the Padres younger prospects either never panned out or were not as good as expected. This led to the firing of GM Josh Byrnes, who was replaced on the interim by Omar Minaya and on August 6th by Rangers Assistant GM AJ Preller. Many on the mainstream feel the only way to rebuild a team is from the ground up. While examples such as the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates show how complete rebuilds do work over time, it also doesn't account for all the years of competitive baseball lost in the process. There have been examples of the "retool" which worked in the case of the 2009 Yankees and the 2013 Red Sox. The building of a team through trades and free agent signings- in one particular off season is the least popular one. Not just because experts and fans do not like it, but percentages do not favor them winning. The 1992 Mets are the worst team money can buy for a reason, the same can be said about the 2002 version. Other examples include the 2012 Miami Marlins and 2013 Blue Jays who did not have the expected success. The only one that seems to have worked is the 1997 Florida Marlins. Because of this, many feel that if any team makes "too many" transactions in one off season, it is destined for failure. I think it depends on the transactions that are made. The Padres of 2014 actually had a winning record in the final three months of the season of 41-38. The starting pitching had a lot to do with that success, as the offense was a joke all season long. The Padres had a series of the worst offensive stats the game has seen in recent years. Due to injuries and trades, the team only had 7 players finish the season with more than 100 games played, led by SS/ CF Alexi Amarista (148 games, .239, 5, 40) and RF Will Venable (146 games, .224, 8, 33). Among key players to miss a lot of time in 2014 were CF Cameron Maybin (95 games, .235, 1, 13), 1B Yonder Alonso (84 games, .240, 7, 27), LF Carlos Quentin (50 games, .177, 4, 18), 2B Jedd Gyorko (111 games, .210, 10, 51) and SS Everth Cabrera (90 games, .232, 3, 20). Because of this, the Padres team leader in runs scored was Seth Smith with 55, hits- Smith with 118, 2Bs- Smith-31, 3Bs- Smith- 5, HRs- Yasmani Grandal- 15, RBIs- Gyorko- 51, batting average- Yangervis Solarte- .267 (in 56 games after being acquired in the Headley deal with the Yankees), otherwise it was Smith at .266. It did not take a rocket scientist to show that this team needed to redefine itself with an offense that can produce above the level of replacement player. Because the Padres, led by Preller, simply did not want to quit professional baseball for the next couple of seasons- like many in the media think they should do- they brought in three proven offensive players in Kemp (.287, 27, 89), Myers (.293, 13, 53 in 88 games winning the AL ROY in 2013) and Upton (.270, 29, 102). Those three additions would be enough to bring optimism to the fan base and enough to coincide with the decent to strong starting pitching the team has led by RHPs Andrew Cashner (5-7, 2.55, 19 starts), Tyson Ross (13-14, 2.81, 31 starts) and Ian Kennedy (13-13, 3.63, 33 starts, 207 Ks in 201 IP). What I like most about the 2014-2015 Padres off season is the fact that they finished it off by adding a proven starting pitcher. Though James Shields was not good in the postseason in 2014 (25 IP, 36 hits, 17 ER, 7 BB, 4 HR), he still has a track record of winning. Shields has been part of a winning team each of the past 6 seasons, which includes the last two years in Kansas City. His impact on the Padres starting staff is something that cannot be measured in stats. He may not be their ace by the second half of the season. But his presence in the clubhouse and how his string of 200 inning seasons lengthens the rotation is something the Padres will get value out of. Additionally, the Padres upgraded at both 3B and C, with Will Middlebrooks (.288, 15, 54 in 88 games during rookie season of 2013) and Derek Norris (.270, 10, 55) both just 26 years old. The biggest question about the Padres going into this season is how the new players, most of whom have never played together before, mesh well in the clubhouse. Proven leaders like Shields and Norris could allow for the team to gel together, but like I said before, it is all about the players that are in the clubhouse. The fact that Bud Black has made it clear who will be playing in all three OF positions- Myers in CF, Upton in LF and Kemp in RF, better allows for the new OFs to get used to each others' company. Chemistry could still destroy this team. That being true, it cannot be a guarantee that will be the case. Hope for the Padres is that Gyorko and Alonso can stay healthy and develop with others in the lineup producing. The same can be a benefit for Middlebrooks (.191, 2, 19). What I like about this team is the fact that they do have depth and other options in case a Middlebrooks or Amarista or Gyorko do not pan out. Solarte (.260, 10, 48) probably has a good chance of winning the starting job at either 2B or 3B by simply having a good spring. Gyorko and Middlebrooks are capable of being better offensive players, but neither have proven it yet. The Padres have also signed SS Clint Barmes, a longtime MLB starting SS, to give Amarista a push. They also still have a major part of their 2014 OF, with Venable, Maybin and Quentin all projected to return. Wil Nieves, who has driven over 20 runs three times as a backup catcher, is the likely backup for Norris, with Tim Federowicz possibly out for the season. Though I will be quick to put a Solarte, Barmes or Quentin (who is playing a little 1B) in to replace a struggling infielder, the following is the lineup I will go with: Amarista SS, Myers CF, Kemp RF, Upton LF, Alonso 1B, Norris C, Middlebrooks 3B, Gyorko 2B. The primary bench consists of Venable, Quentin, Solarte, Barmes and Nieves. Maybin provides depth in CF in cases Myers struggles, but he has not been able to stay healthy himself. The rotation will start out with Shields, Cashner, Ross and Kennedy. I'd go with Odrisamer Despaigne (4-7, 3.37, 16 starts) as the number 5 starter though Brandon Morrow is intriguing is he is fully recovered from his arm woes. Josh Johnson and Cory Luebke will both return this year from Tommy John surgery to add some depth. Thinking outside the box, I like the thought of using Morrow as a late inning reliever, something he did early on in his career with Seattle. His ability to miss bats is something that can be an absolute asset in the Padres pen. Joaquin Benoit (4-2, 11 saves, 1.49, 53 games) is the Padres closer. Kevin Quackenbush (3-3, 2.48, 56 games), Nick Vincent (1-2, 3.60, 63 games) and Dale Thayer (4-5, 2.34, 70 games) are all decent relievers, but none have a strikeout ratio that puts fear in the opposition. LHP Alex Torres (2-1, 3.33, 70 games) is a solid lefty specialist. RHP Shawn Kelley (3-6, 4.53, 67 Ks, just under 52 IP) can be that pitcher but he did have a rough go of it in 2014 for the Yankees. Also coming back from TJ is RHP Casey Kelly, acquired from Boston in the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox. Kelly tops the most intriguing younger Padres players, along with C Austin Hedges and OF Hunter Renfroe. RHP Matt Wisler is a 2011 7th round draft pick that could help this season in the bullpen. All in all, big things are expected for the Padres in 2015. As in most other cases where teams make a lot of off season moves, there will be doubters over whether a team like this can pull it off. I think the team will be fine as it has a solid balance. Las Vegas has their O/U projected at 85 1/2. I think they can win 88. I think that will stop them short of winning the NL West division. The Padres will return to the postseason once again, with the 1st Wild Card in the National League. It will be only the 5th time in the Padres franchise history that they make the playoffs- the first since 2006.