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2 The Welsh Climate Perspective Introduction Although the climate of the world is changing, effects could be different depending on where we live. This section of the education pack will explore climate changes predicted for Wales. These include temperature, precipitation and sea level rise. How Much? If we continue to release carbon dioxide at the current rate, scientists estimate that by the year 2080, average temperatures in Wales could increase by up to 4 ˚C. Temperature increases are likely to be greatest during summer months. Wales Annual Temperature Changes (˚C) 2020s 2050s 2080s http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1492/499/ Data based on medium emissions scenario. Sourced from UKCP09 > 3 - 4 ˚C > 2-3 ˚C > 1-2 ˚C Fast Fact… Between 1961 and 2006, summer temperatures in Wales increased by up to 1.4 ˚C in South Wales and by up to 1.8 ˚C in North East Wales. Figure 9. Whitesands Bay, West Wales Welsh Climate Changes Figure 8. Predicted Welsh Temperature Changes 2020s-2080s Pupil Notes

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3 The Welsh Climate Perspective How Much? By the 2080s summer rainfall may have reduced by up to 30% in some parts of Central and South Wales and up to 40% in some parts of West Wales. By the 2080s winter rainfall may have increased by up to 30% in South and West Wales, particularly along the coast. Wales Precipitation Changes Figure 10. Predicted Welsh Summer % Precipitation Changes 2020s 2050s 2080s Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/con tent/view/1495/499/ Data based on medium emissions scenario Summer Precipitation % Change Precipitation (e.g. rain, snow, hail) patterns are expected to change across Wales. Scientists estimate that precipitation could decrease in summer and increase in winter months. Figure 11. Predicted Welsh Winter % Precipitation Changes 2020s 2050s 2080s Winter Precipitation % Change Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/con tent/view/1498/499/#50 Data based on medium emissions scenario >0-20% >0-10% >0-30% <0%-20% <10-40% < 10-30%

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4 The Welsh Climate Perspective Had You Ever Thought? A significant amount of coastal land in Wales is less than 1m above current sea level. What would happen if a 2m storm surge occurred in addition to sea level rise? Would coastal defences be able to cope? What resources could be at risk? Sea Level Changes Sea level is expected to change across Wales. Scientists estimate that welsh sea levels could increase by up to 50cm by 2095. However, following compression and subsequent “bouncing back” of land masses during the last Ice Age, northern parts of Wales are rising very slowly (0.07cm per year). This effect may reduce predicted sea level rises in North and West Wales. Figure 12. Predicted Sea Level Increases Around Wales by 2095 (Medium emissions) Source: visit-borth.co.uk Source: walesdirectory.co.uk Source: Severn Estuary Partnership Source: Adapted from http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/ content/view/1141/500/

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5 1 Run the interactive Towyn activity at http://www.ngfl-cymru.org.uk/cc-how- might-i-be-affected/cc-coastal-flooding/cc-storms/cc-towyn.htm. Write a short story about what it would have been like to be caught up in the Towyn flooding. You could write it from the point of view of an older person stuck in their home or of a rescue worker.http://www.ngfl-cymru.org.uk/cc-how- might-i-be-affected/cc-coastal-flooding/cc-storms/cc-towyn.htm 2. (Geology 3.3) Visit a local stretch of coast and record evidence of previous raised sea levels using diagrams, photographs or maps. 3.(Geography 3.1) Check flood risks for your local area at: http://maps.environment- agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?x=531500.0&y=181500.0&topic=flood map&ep=map&scale=3&location=London,%20City%20of%20London&lang=_ e&layerGroups=default&textonly=off http://maps.environment- agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?x=531500.0&y=181500.0&topic=flood map&ep=map&scale=3&location=London,%20City%20of%20London&lang=_ e&layerGroups=default&textonly=off Now look at flood risk in Colwyn Bay without sea defences. Why are sea levels there changing and how might these changes affect people, the economy and the environment in the future? 4. (PSE Section C) Give your opinion on the importance of adapting to climate change in Wales and explore reasons why teenagers might think they do not need to adapt yet? 5. (PSE Section C and Humanities Unit 1) Watch http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/ps/stories/164561.shtml http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/ps/stories/164561.shtml Discuss ways in which young people can influence policy decisions about climate change in Wales. The Welsh Climate Perspective The initial phase is designed to protect more than 200 properties, the A55 and railway line opposite the northern entrance to Eirias Park. "Without this work the railway line, railway station and the A55 are particularly at risk given their location running parallel to the waterfront for a significant distance," said Councillor Mike Priestley, cabinet member for Conwy Council's environment committee. BBC Wales 21 February 2011 New Colwyn Bay Sea Defences to Protect 200 Homes Contractors are due to start this week on the first phase of £5m plans to improve Colwyn Bay's coastal defences and promenade facilities. Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-12523484http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-north-west-wales-12523484 Colwyn Bay, North Wales Activities