Roy Oswalt Rumors: Friday

The Twins, Cardinals and Phillies are talking to the Astros about Roy Oswalt, who seems to prefer one of those clubs to the others. Yesterday we heard that the Cardinals are Oswalt’s first choice and are a “very real” threat to acquire him. The clubs have struggled to find a fit, possibly because the Cardinals want the Astros to take on salary. That's not the only complication, as Oswalt may decide to demand that his $16MM option for 2012 is picked up. Here are today’s rumors, with more to come throughout the day:

Oswalt told Alyson Footer of the Astros that his 2012 option won't be a deal-breaker if the Astros approach him with a deal that he likes (Twitter link).

The Twins are not in on Oswalt and have not even contacted the Astros about him, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Rosenthal confirms that the Dodgers are talking to the Astros about their ace, but suggests L.A. may not have the prospects to satisfy GM Ed Wade.

The Dodgers are actively discussing Oswalt with the Astros and the teams have exchanged names, according to Stark. The Dodgers would likely need the Astros to pick up some salary in any trade.

The Astros would prefer not to trade Oswalt within the division, so they continue talking to the Phillies, while maintaining contact with the Cardinals, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. A source tells ESPN that the Cardinals would include major leaguers Jon Jay or Brendan Ryan in a deal. The Astros, who would like to engage other clubs, appear to want a catcher and/or corner infielders.

The Phillies are still shopping Jayson Werth, partly to see if they can obtain prospects that they could use in an Oswalt trade, according to Stark. However, they don’t appear to be making progress on a Werth trade.

Oswalt would consider re-structuring his contract to accomodate a trade to the Cardinals, but he still wants his 2012 option picked up in a deal, according to Amy Nelson of ESPN (via Twitter). Re-structuring the deal would likely mean deferring salary (Twitter link).

An NL exec tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the Astros are looking to obtain “two top prospects, a third minor-league player and a young player who is ‘major league ready’” if they trade Oswalt. Cards GM John Mozeliak didn’t comment on specific trade possibilities, but said the team is exploring a “spectrum” of opportunities.

It’s funny that they expect that kind of haul. He’s an older pitcher, with an injury history. Not to mention he’s owed a lot of money….money which Hou doesn’t seem willing to pay any part of. Oswalt is a good pitcher, but I wouldn’t call him elite and certainly not worth “two top prospects, a third minor-league player and a young player who is ‘major league ready’” plus 2 years of $16 Mil.

Oswalt is an elite pitcher. He has been one of the top twenty starting pitchers in baseball every season of his career (don’t believe me? Look up his stats). His “injury history” is overblown; he has made at least 30 starts every season since 2004.

Houston already said they’d be willing to pay some of his salary in the right deal.

I think Houston is asking for too much but in negotiations you start out high or low. So Houston may be setting their bar but will not get that haul. He has a no trade clause and is owed a ton of money those two things usally work against you when trying to acquire that much young talent in return.

Sure if Houston ponies up a ton of cash then things could change but really how much do you see them sending in another direction as far as cash?

Is it really a “ton of money” though? Something tells me there won’t be a pitcher as good as Roy Oswalt, even at 33, willing to sign a contract for 2 years $32 million when FA time rolls around. That actually sounds like a pretty good deal considering Oswalt is putting up some of the best numbers of his career right now. It also looks like he has maintained his stuff, according to pitchFX. It took 1 yr $10 mil to sign 31 yearold Ben Sheets last offseason. I don’t think 2 years $32 mil is a ridiculous amount to pay 32 yearold Roy Oswalt.

When all the teams in baseball are looking to sign a free agent then maybe it is not a ton of money, especially when you get a chance to negotiate. This is not the case here.

What we do have:
#1 we have the no trade clause so your market has tightened up
#2 how many of those teams believe they are in it that are not on the list it tightens more
#3 teams already dealing with their own payroll and for the most part the GM’s have spent what ownership has allowed them to. Some GM’s are getting some flexibility sure but like I said he could be owed 5 or 6 more million this year yet. Then 16 more next year.

So yes at this point it is a ton of cash. Even if it remnds us of the Peavy deal or not there was still a lot of money involved with that one as well.

Nice point about Sheets but just cause a team makes a terrible decision it does not make your point for you lol.

Didn’t Peavy have about $30 mil over 2.5 years left on his contract when he was dealt? He also had a no-trade clause and injury concerns.

It isn’t just Ben Sheets though, the point was that risky, old starting pitching costs a lot of money in the FA market. 31 yearold John Lackey just signed a deal for 5 years, $82 million. 32 yearold Randy Wolf just signed a 3 year $30 million deal. 36 yearold Derrick Lowe got 4 years/$60 mil. Oswalt is better than every one of those guys.

My point is that paying 32 yearold Roy Oswalt $32 mil over 2 years is not really going above market value for him at all.

To piggie back what Oremlk is sayng Dark, please look up his stats. He has pitched over 200 innings in 7 out of his 9 full seasons. He has been the definition of reliable. The money he is owed is on track with the market. If he were a free agent this winter he would get a 5 year 85 to 100 deal without question.

Just because they are asking for it, doesn’t necessarily mean they are unwilling to settle for less. You have to start your negotiations somewhere… I am sure the Astros are highballing and the Cardinals are lowballing. If the deal gets done there will have to be some compromise from both parties most likely.

Those demands are certainly going to be met by the phillies. That is, unless they flip Werth for prospects and then use those prospects to get Oswalt.How can the Astros be making demands like that AND want the other team to take on salary? They’re gonna have to pick one or the other: high demands, or team the other team taking on a large chunk of salary.

You need to keep in mind that this article is specifically talking about what they are asking for from the Cardinals. The Cardinals have probably the worst farm system in baseball following their recent trades, so a top Cardinals prospect is not at all the same thing as a top Twins prospect, or even a top Phillies prospect.

Shelby Miller is the only blue chip, top 100 prospect they even have. So, he would be one of the two top prospects, and the other would be much, much worse. A third minor league player would just be a toss-in with little value, and a “major league ready player” might be somebody like Allen Craig who is an older minor league guy who has no value to the Cardinals because he’s logjammed by Pujols and Holliday.

Good point. And, Shelby Miller has a ridiculous bust risk because he’s a pitching prospect that’s very far from the majors. The Astros should get Miller in an Oswalt deal, but its an imperative to eat salary and get something that’s lower ceiling and higher floor. If Matt Holliday got Brett Wallace, who was very close to MLB ready at the time, Oswalt should get more. And Brett Wallace had much more value than Shelby Miller currently does.

Wallace was closer to the big leagues, which is really the only quality putting him above Miller. I wouldn’t say “much” more value. Wallace is older, doesn’t have the ceiling Miller has, but is less of a risky bet. Miller is only 19 and has a much higher ceiling than Wallace, albeit less likely to reach it. The thing that separates the two, IMO, from a Cardinals perspective is that Wallace had no place in the organization. He was trade bait from the day he was drafted. Miller is someone that is certainly being counted on by the organization to provide low-cost production in the (hopefully) Pujols’ extension days.

My point is, while its debatable who has/had more value and to what degree, you can’t compare a potential Oswalt deal to the Holliday deal in a vacuum. Two very different players, in very different situations, potentially involving very different prospects – with very different roles in the organization.

I think Oswalt is worth at least one elite prospect. The question is if he’s worth that much to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have some deal of leverage here, in that they don’t NEED him. Oswalt would be a luxury, not a necessity. Albeit one that could turn them from a playoff team to a legit World Series contender.

And Oswalt has some leverage here, too. I doubt he’d accept a deal to Philly (at least without the option being picked up) and if the Phil’s can’t afford to keep Werth, how can they afford to do that? Especially when offense is their big issue right now.

If Oswalt’s desire to play for STL is as strong as reported, he might not have the leverage to force their hand, but he could put a lot of pressure on Wade to get it done.

Minnesota is the wild card here. If Roy would accept a trade there, a package built around Ramos (who MIN doesn’t need) would be hard to pass up.

The cards do need Roy. Getting to the playoffs isn’t enough, and they could likely do that as is, but the goal is to advance in the playoffs, otherwise you’re saying a wildcard or a world series winner are the same. You’re obviously not saying that, so you must know that they want to win it all, and they obviously couldn’t do it last year, they’re not markedly better this year, so they need Roy.

The playoffs are largely a crap-shoot. Just look at the ’04 and ’06 Cardinals. Roy might give them the best chance, but to say the Cardinals NEED him to win is flat-out wrong. Does he raise their chances enough to warrant the price? Maybe – maybe not.

Isn’t catcher about the only place the Astros have a good prospect, so I’m not how attractive Ramos would be to them? I think Shelby Miller and others is a fair deal for Oswalt if they eat some money. But if I were the Astros I think I’d rather have Happ he’s available.

I think Happ has less upside, but he’s more proven. The Astros are probably at least two years from contending, so does it make more sense to acquire high-upside talent that is a couple years off, or lower-ceiling guys that are ready/close to ready?As far as catcher, I think you look at it kind of like the draft. Many times it makes more sense to go for the best player available rather than organizational need. You can always trade one of them down the line to fill a need when they become competitive.

You can’t compare Holliday’s deal to Roy’s. Ace pitchers are harder to come by then slugging outfielders. Also, St. Louis will have to include more because they are trading in the same division, as opposed to different leagues. In addition, St. Louis must recognize that they are trying to obtain a franchise player. Holliday was a rental in Oakland. So, 4.5.6. Connect what dots?

With the way this is turning out I would not be shocked at all if the Astros get everything they are asking for. Look at the White Sox and Peavy. The Sox took on all of Peavy’s Salary and gave up 4 top flight pitching prospects. One of which is 7 and 5 with a 3.57 era with the Padres this year. Oswalt is every bit as good if not better then Paevy. Point is people will do what needs to be done when a pitcher of Oswalt’s Caliber is on the block.

“4 top-flight” is a bit of a stretch…Richard has been great, Poreda has high upside but was/is INCREDIBLY raw (he’s a strikeout pitcher that walks more guys than he K’s), and Carter/Russell are not expected to be more than middle relievers, and not for years as it is.To put it in some context…Baseball Prospectus, before the trade, ranked Poreda as a 4-star (out of 5) prospect, Richard as a 2-star, and Carter/Russell as one star or lower.

It’s funny because that’s more than Philly paid for Halladay…and Oswalt is very good, but he’s not Halladay.And don’t forget the Phillies also got $6m in cash and a pre-negotiated under market-value contract out of the deal.

Put it another way: that’s more than JP Riccardi (sp?) was asking for Halladay LAST SEASON. JP wanted 3 top prospects or young MLB ready players, and no one was willing to pay it.

If that is truly what the Astros expect to get for Oswalt, he’s not getting traded…or he’s getting traded RIGHT before the deadline for a lesser package.

He’s what? 32- or 33-years-old and has already showed signs of aging. No way he is worth that much. Halladay is 100-times better than Oswalt and even he couldn’t get that much for the Jays. C. Lee is better, but he couldn’t get that. The only two people that should bring that much, plus more is Pujols and Braun. Also, any GM that gives into those demands should no longer have a job.

He was 46th in MLB in WAR in 2009 and 34th in 2008. He projects probably as no better than a 3.5 WAR pitcher going forward. He, simply, is not an elite pitcher. He is still very good but he is one who likely won’t be worth his contract going forward. The Astros are going to have to eat a ton of money in order for him to be worth Shelby Miller by himself.

Check out his rankings in FIP and xFIP those seasons. As a matter of fact, he would have generated well over 4 wins last year if the Astros hadn’t intentionally shut him down early (their decision) because they were out of contention and wanted to give his back a rest.

Also, way to ignore inconvenient facts, such as that Oswalt is on pace for 5.3 WAR this season, and averaged 5.4 WAR 2005-2007.

Thanks for being on board with those funny stats. If it’s not era or some variant of the normal stats, I’m not much good at researching my numbers Fully agree Orem. Nice to see you here and on the homepage too. Always a joy reading intelligent input, rather than my own passionate yet un-sabermetric replies

“On pace for…?” Way to fall into that trap. He’s sitting at 2.9 WAR right now and projects as a 3.52 FIP through the end of the year. That puts him right around 4 WAR — a nice pitcher, undoubtedly, but hardly elite. Right now he’s 18th in the majors in WAR (among pitchers). It’s nearly irrelevant what his WAR was 5 years ago as he was 3.6 in 2008, 3.1 in 2009, and is projected to finish around 4 this year. Calling him a 5 win pitcher moving forward is simply lunacy. If the Astros insist that he is, they’re going to keep him through the deadline and probably through the winter as well.

Yesterday I was dead against including Miller in a trade, but I’ve thought about it and have found the idea more palatable.

While I don’t think he is on the same level as Halladay or Lee (but not far off), and he’s owed quite a bit over the next couple years, he would give the Card’s the best shot to get back to the series – and that’s the name of the game.

Originally, the idea of trading a potential young ace (though no sure thing) for an aging pitcher with a contract that could make it difficult to resign Pujols didn’t seem like a great idea. But, Pujols is on the record as saying the most important thing to him is the Cardinals proving to him they are dedicated to winning – and acquiring Holliday/Oswalt in consecutive seasons certainly does that. Also, winning a Series this year would (hopefully) make it difficult for him to reject an extension in the off-season.

Exactly. No Shelby Miller, no deal. Cardinals top 10 prospects aren’t like Phillies or Twins top 10 prospects. After Miller the talent falls off. The #10 prospect in the Cards organization is like a #20 prospect in the Twins org. The Cards isn’t a good destination because after they add in Miller they won’t want to give away many more top 10 prospects. They overvalue those prospects because they don’t have many of them, kinda like the Astros farm system.

I think the Astros will give up 7-8 mill to get it done and I don’t think Roy will demand that his option be picked up in the end. He wants out of Houston and I don’t blame him. If he wants out that bad then he’ll go regardless of the option. My guess is he’ll wind up a Phillie in one way or another.

No way that works. Jay is a nice player, but it is an extremely limited sample size and he hasn’t hit that will in the minors until this season. Craig is the opposite, he’s always hit well in the minors, but he’s older (for a prospect) and hasn’t done much in the majors.

If it comes down to the wire and the ‘Stros insist on Miller, the deal will probably look something like: Miller, Sanchez/Salas/Boggs(hope not), and Jay or Craig, with an extra throw in of someone like Hamilton.

Ditto. A quartet of Carpenter, Oswalt, Wainwright and Garcia is just scary. Even with the Cards’ inconsistent offense that should be enough to put the Reds in the rearview and knock off all the other NL contenders. But would the Cardinals take on that contract knowing that Albert is going to require about 27 million a year over 5-7 years?

I really think its funny that so many fans think the Astros should just give their team Oswalt, and he is an old broken down pitcher, but as soon as their team acquires him, he is their ace and a stud, totally hilarious. Oswalt has 6 years of 200 innings plus and only last year did he not top 200 innings and has 6 straight seasons of 30 plus starts, so how is old and broken down. He is the guy who can put a contending team over the top, and if you wanna win you gotta go for it, and pay the price, just like the Rangers did with Cliff Lee. Number 1 starters don’t grow on trees.

Roy is gonna get paid big bucks no matter what. The Astros don’t have to trade him. Thus they are in a position of strength, and the media are all saying what a burden the contract would be, because they really want their team to get him, and not have to pay a fair price.

The single biggest differce between Lee/Doc situation and the Roy O situation is length of Contract. I’m sorry but no way you are getting a pitcher of Roy’s caliber for more then single season for less. Lee and Doc were both pending free agents. Lee will get a massive deal this winter. So what Michael is saying is not crazy, it makes sense.

He’s not going to be just a rent-a-player. C Lee is. The rangers aren’t getting him back next year. Everyone knows that. The wiz will be there this year and give you an ace next year if you want him for under free agent market value. THAT is why they’re asking what they’re asking.

I don’t think the Astros are in a position of strength here. Yes, they don’t have to trade him. However, the alternative is pay him $16 million a year when their team is in no position to win during the life of that contract. Judging by what has been reported, Oswalt seems to want out quite a bit. He wants to win. I think, on some level, the ‘Stros owe it to him to explore opportunities for him to win a ring. Not to mention, getting younger players and building towards the future beats letting him eat up payroll for the next two seasons.

I don’t think they should give him away for nothing, but nor do I think 2 blue-chip guys is realistic. Yes, he’s the face of their franchise, but other teams aren’t going to value him based on that. $16M is nothing to sneeze at, and a 33 y.o. pitcher that may be paid that much in his age-35 season carries a lot of risk.

I’ll repost this here because I think it’s relevant. Regardless of what Lee or Halladay are worth (Halladay is making as much as Roy right now, and isn’t markedly better, statistical fact, and that’s with 3 more service years by Doc) Roy in and of himself is elite. His injury history is a non-issue as even when he was “injured” he managed a barely above 4 era, and when he’s not injured he’s hard pressed to go much above 3.

So, establishing that he’s elite, look at the market. Taking the man out of the equation, teams pay just that type of money for the types of results he gives, so it’s a match. Take into consideration that other team are getting stronger at the deadline, so a player worth an okay contract in the winter is worth a great package of prospects come July as teams try to stay relevant from the middle of the season onward.The Cards don’t want to go home in the first round again, and if they wanna make something happen, they need to be better than they were last year, which means upgrading wherever they can, and the best way, bar none, is with Roy.

Scenario: Roy holds the opposing hitters to 2 or 3 runs, and Albert, Holliday, and Co. drive in 4 or 5 to seal the deal instead of getting Haren who will give up 4 or 5 runs and the bullpens have to slug it out and hope for an offensive show that may come too late.

In what way is Haren even worthy of discussing when he’s never posted a sub-3 era and more often than not is in the high 3 to low 4’s. He’s young and getting better, but he’s not elite or even very good, just good, and Young is only relative. He’s 30. and in 2 years when he’s Roy’s and Doc’s and even Lee’s age no one will be talking about him, they’ll be talking about Latos and Leake. Haren will fade into obscurity as an Ace who should have been a solid #3.

And if someone signs Haren, it just raises Roy’s price tag more because the fewer top signings available on July 31st, the more clubs like the Cards, Phillies, BoSox, etc will need them if they wanna contend with the newly juiced rosters of their Division rivals.

Erm…no, it’s not statistical fact that Oswalt has been nearly as effective as Halladay or Lee.

I don’t feel like breaking both down, so I’ll just do Halladay: negating this season since we’re talking about trade time, in both ’08 and ’09 Halladay nearly DOUBLED Oswalt’s WAR. He was a full WAR point better in ’07. The last time Oswalt equaled Halladay in WAR was ’06, and this will be the first year in 5 where Oswalt’s value has not decreased.

Look, like I said Oswalt is a fantastic pitcher, but he’s just not on the same level.

Also, I find it odd that you call out Haren for never having posted a sub-3 ERA when Oswalt hasn’t done it in nearly 5 years…and Haren has BEAT Oswalt in ERA the past 3 years.

Can’t argue with that, but it doesn’t change the fact that roy has consistently been better. Everyone is obsessed with the statistical anomalies that are the last few seasons, when everyone knows it’s about the long run, whether it’s looking at 10 games and trying to predict the outcome of the other 152 or looking at 2 or 3 seasons of a pitchers career and assuming his overall worth. Haren was mediocre for years and won’t be much better than mediocre in a few more. He’s good but he’s no ace. As for Roy, and the same could apply to Lee, Doc, or Haren if you so choose, but look at Mussina, Johnson, Ryan, though I shudder to include him for fear of crucifixion: They all remained viable into their 40’s, and most of them even improved. Baseball in about intellect as much as ability, and Roy, like the aforementioned players, has both. Injuries are something we all deal with, but it’s not like he’s been injury prone his whole life; he’s just experiencing the bumps and bruises of age. He throws harder than he should for his size, and it takes its toll, but there’s no reason to think that Roy can’t make the proper adjustments and pitch 10 more years if he wants to, which he says he doesn’t, so he’ll retire way before he’s legitimately out of gas as an elite pitcher capable of shutting down the best offenses in the league at 23, or 33. Anyone who thinks he isn’t worth every penny hasn’t got an ounce of cents.

Well, I disagree with you about Haren, but at $16m I think Oswalt’s worth the cost…I just don’t think they’ll get THAT much in trade for him. Two good prospects and a lower prospect? Probably. Two good prospects plus an MLB-ready player plus another low prospect? No.

If we get 3 worthwhile guys, with Miller being one of them, then I think we both come out winners. There will be plenty of 18 and 19 year old arms to draft between now and 2012, some maybe better than miller, most decidedly worse, but the Cards are in contention now, so they need to do what they need to do to make it. Asking for 4 guys is likely bidding high, though I think he’s worth it, especially if we pitch in salary, and it wouldn’t suprise me if the Stros get it. Inflation is the name of the game, even in this economy, if not as much in previous years.

Just for the record, Keith Law said in his chat yesterday, when asked if the Cards would trade Shelby Miller in an Oswalt deal, that, “I can’t imagine the Cardinals are that dumb. I mean, I know they’re not that dumb. You’re thinking of Oswalt as he was a few years ago, not as he is today.”

So that’s one well-respected opinion on the deal. I know Keith is really high on Miller and I sort of agree with him. He has some of the highe)st upside in the minors and is only 19. However, if the Cards can pull this off without Miller (obviously, very little of Oswalt’s salary would be ate in that case), I’m all for it. Maybe Craig, Boggs (has closer potential), Lance Lynn (whose having a bad year, but was a pretty well regarded prospect with middle rotation probability), and Sanchez or Salas can get it done.

However, the Cards should only due this if Oswalt does not require the pick up his 2012 option or agrees to re-work it, as 2012 would be when a very expensive Pujols extension would kick in.

I understand what you’re saying, but this is no ordinary pitching prospect. Keith also said in his mid-season top 25 prospect list that Miller looks like he has the highest upside of any pitching prospect in the minor leagues. In other words, he’s not just another guy with top of the rotation potential, but with cy young potential.

Keith Law, as usual, is dead-on. Oswalt simply isn’t the pitcher many people believe him to be. He’s owed at least $18 million after this season and simply won’t project to be worth that kind of money. Miller, on the other hand, is a top 50 pitching prospect who has considerable value to the Cards or any other team. The Cards simply should not even be willing to discuss Miller unless the Astros are willing to pick up most, if not all, of Oswalt’s salary.

The Phillies won’t meet those demands. Not because they don’t want to, but because they can’t. Dom Brown is untouchable and their best prospects behind him are all in lower A ball. Best they could do is Happ, Kendrick and whatever prospect haul they get for Werth in a separate deal.

I’m thinking Sanchez, Lynn, Miller, and Descalso as 4 good names. Sanchez is a good young reliever who is getting roughed up a little in AAA but he likely adapts into a serviceable reliever, Everyone knows the story on Miller at this point, Lynn will be a good #3, and Descalso improves on anything we might have up the middle, especially if we don’t get Deshields, and even if we do, who knows how either of these players could develop.

We get these 4, pay come of his salary, though not nearly as much as some people are thinking, and Roy is still worth every penny to the Cards.

I mentioned salary. We definitely have to pay some salary, but one post was suggesting partial this year, next year and even a piece of his option. These kids are untested. I think 4mil is more than reasonable.

I’ve been reading a bunch of articles, a few saying that the Astros are looking for a catcher and major league ready bat. I’m wondering if it makes sense for the Yanks to stick their heads in this little Philly/Astro/Cardinal love fest and dangle Montero (plus some prospects) for Werth, then ship Montero and whomever over to the Astros….

Are there any holes in this logic/line of thinking? Outside of Oswalt wanting to pitch for the Cards over the Phils….?

I think it’s too early to look for a catcher, though I’ve heard the same thing, but Drayton hates giving up on anything, see him refusing to sell no matter how far behind we are up until this season, and even then he was hesitant. I think that even if castro becomes a bust, which I hope he doesn’t, by the time Drayton gives up on him and agrees to spend for another catcher, montero will be an established major leaguer and worth a lot more, or a bust in his own right. Any catching prospect we take on now, unless he’s 17 or 18, will likely be stuck in the minors until he’s 25 or 26, see tommy manzella, cj, navarro, etc etc. We like to really age our prospects, like wine, though I’m hoping that’s a changing trend with Castro and the pushing of Lyles.

Plus, as good as Werth is despite his slump, and I’m not sure, but the Yankees seem pretty high on Montero, so I doubt they’d trade him, especially with Jorge getting old and Cervelli being serviceable but not amazing, I don’t see any road blocks on his way to the majors if he keeps performing. Barring an amazing package, and I don’t think Werth is it, I don’t see the Yanks parting with Montero. I believe them when they say Lee was a special case

Well, the only person who knows for sure is Oswalt, but it seems to me that when it’s heart against money, most players choose the money. Oswalt would have a hard time rejecting the Phils if they’d agree to pick up the option but St. Louis wouldn’t.

Oswalt has also made it clear he wants to stay in the NL. Also, I’m not sure way the Yanks were trade Montero for Werth, and if the Phils could pull that off they would probably just keep Montero and put him at first base after Howard leaves via free agency… oh wait, Howard just signed the most ridiculous contract in baseball. But to the point, I can’t see that senario happening.

Are you out of your mind? Montero + prospects for Jayson Werth? You’re talking about potentially one of the most impactful minor league hitting prospects since Miguel C. Jayson Werth is a complete player, but come on, he’s not that good. Cliff Lee what the #1 trade option for any team this season. That was and will be the only time you will hear Montero’s name in trade discussions. Some of the people on here still don’t realize just how important a piece C. Lee was for the Rangers or any team. Sorry no other player, Oswalt, or Haren can compare and they certainly can;t command the same return.

Roy Oswalt and Brandon Lyon and the Astros Pay 8.5 million to the Cards

then the Astros would except
Shelby Miller Young high End Prospect (Prospect is the Key word here)
Young MLB PLayer Colby Rasmus (Cards Keep Jon Jay)
Matthew Adams and David Freese
That is a more then fair trade for a Sp whom is an Ace 1. Stays in the NL so he knows the Batter’s 2. Goes 200+ Innings a year 6+IP per game and can throw on average 180 to 200 SO Per year and has PLayoff Xp 3. And last but not least Injury History? Ball hit Oswalt ankle made next start. Should I find more he doesnt miss his starts.

no one thinks that. but no one besides you i guess thinks oswalt is worth a former #3 prospect in baseball(rasmus), one of the top pitching prospects in the game(miller), an MLB third baseman(freese), and a guy with #2 or #3 starter upside(Lynn).

you think oswalt is worth Colby Rasmus AND shelby miller? lord, oh lord.halladay and Cliff lee aren’t even worth that. name me 5 centerfielders right now better than rasmus in the NL. go ahead, try. Should i also mention that he is partially injured right now and only 23?oswalt isn’t worth Rasmus alone.

and seriously…

shelby miller, colby rasmus, david freese, and matt adams…i’d better be getting another Roy with his contract being picked up for that kind of haul. and im not talking about Oswalt.

and why the hell would the cards want brandon Lyon. of all people, why him? he’s terrible and they don’t even need BP help. they have like like 4 guys in the BP with era’s around 2.5 or lower.

Marlon Byrd, Andres Torres has over 100 games in cf, cody ross has over 300, lastings milledge has 150+, andrew mccutchen, Angel pagan, and yes, even michael bourn. Any of these guys are equal to or better than rasmus. maybe not with the ceiling, but until he proves it, it’s all speculation, and so far he’s been. . . ok. Career .260 hitter who strikes out a lot, though thank god nowhere near as much as Mark Reynolds, thanks god the guy can smack it a mile.

I only listed plaid games to prove they had experience at that position. Pagan is batting .307 with 8 homes and 20sb. Only 2 errors and 6 assists this year. I’ll take it. Torres is 32, but he’s doing the job, and well. milledge is comparable to rasmus, and mccutchen is head and shoulders above him. you forgot to mention them. you asked for 5. take 5 of them.

lastings milledge isnt even a centerfielder(this season) so i don’t know what your thinking their.McCutchen and Rasmus are more or less the same players. McCutch has more speed, Rasmus more power.torres, come on now. pagan is also playing over his head.

The point is that milledge has a seasons worth of games in center field so he obviously can play the position, so you’re argument against including him doesn’t prove he isn’t better, only that you’re not comfortable including him. mccutchen/rasmus is a wash, torres since 09 when he came back from the minors has been hitting .270, with a little pop but we can scratch him from age, and byrd, though as an allstar this year you can’t doubt his naming. pagan has never played more than 88 games in a season, his current total, but he hit over .300 last year, and .300 this year, has a little pop, and can swipe bases. he’s not playing over his head. he’s making improvements, which is what you’d expect from a kid getting stretched out in the majors. You’re assuming rasmus is the next jim edmonds or something, but he hasn’t proven to be anything but ok so far. definately not the future hall of famers you’re marketing him as

I like his age, I like his ceiling, but unless he’s going to LF there’s no room for him at CF or RF, unless bourn dramatically fails to gain back any of last years form at the plate. His fielding is gold glove caliber again, and he’s awe inspiring on the bases. Rasmus can’t touch either of those aspects of his place. Pence hits a lot of double play balls, but he beats some out, and he has power that rasmus likely won’t develop. On a different team he may be worth more, but his value has to be considered based not just on what he brings to the table but what we need as well, and frankly, we don’t.

You’re basing that off of what you think he’ll be able to do in 2 or 3 or 4 years, but if you look at what he’s doing now, it’s not impressive. The other guys are doing what they’re doing at a major league level for years at a time. If it’s true that he’s playing through an injury, then he may come back huge, or he may hurt himself permanently. The point is moot regardless as everyone agrees he’s “untouchable” and, like freese, we don’t need him.

his .868 is only this year, and as streaky as he is it could easily even out. Just looking at this season, with no past taken into account, which is what you seem to prefer, Pence and Rasmus are having very similar seasons, with Rasmus having a better SLG%now, but like this season is statistically down for Pence, Rasmus is playing above his career averages right now, and will likely fall off sooner than later. He’s good, Pence is better, and at 27 he could well be better than Pence, but right now, no.

well, maybe if the astros throw in their whole roster and agree to pay all the salaries on the remainder of all the contracts the could get miller, rasmus, and freese. wait, that still wouldn’t be worth it for the Cards. Rasmus at league minimum in his second year at 23 is worth way more than Oswalt even if the Astros paid all of his salary.

The Astros’s are out of their minds. Yeah, here, take him and his more than $30mm left in salary, give us 4 prospects (your two top ones please) and just hope he doesn’t get hurt. I can see the strategy the Astros are playing on this one. Smooth. Its a wonder they are one of the worst teams in baseball. It all starts at the top of the front office.

Get that threw your heads.
20yr olds to 24yr olds are prospects.
16 to 19 yr olds are possible prospects.
Why in the world would the astros wont more Relievers?
Are you trying to get Oswalt for chips?
Oswalt said he would restructure his contract to come to the Cards.
Astros will get Miller Rasmus Freese and Adams.
Dont say you dont have anyone to play for Freese becouse who is playing as we speek? Lopez he can handle it for acouple of years and if he gets a ring he would sign for cheap just to get another one.

Stop all the Craig Lynn Sanchez talk becouse the Astros just arent intrested in the AAAAAAAAAAA team you have waiting to come up becouse they are blocked by your Big Name players. Jon Jay is the Only Boarderline prospect you have and the Cards want to keep him. Seems like they would put Ludwick back in LF or RF where ever and Move Jon Jay whom is Hitting better then Rasmus into CF.

Come on people you some logic.
Dont try and Pawn of your Scrubs it will cost you 2 proven MLB youngsters 1 Sp high Prospect and a Low Level Prospect David Freese, Colby Rasmus, Shelby Miller and Matthew Adams. Get over it and good luck towards the rest of the Year.

And forget Kieth Law he only believes in Mericales. He is the worst guy to ever listin to when it comes to trades.

Dude, you’re totally off. The financial ramifications are boardline insane. St louis is already treading on dangerous ground. My money is on Oswalt not being traded at all. It just doesn’t make sense for anyone but the Astros themselves.

We don’t need freese. What would we do with him? Berkman isn’t going anywhere and CJ is exceeding expecations right now, in a good way. All he’d be is a backup 3b, a spot start at 1st, and basically a bench bat. Rasmus too doesn’t have anywhere to go with pence and bourn being worth their money, more or less, though as a team we’re low, so I get that, but it averages out, and lee isn’t gonna sit making 20mil. So if we get freese and rasmus we end up with replacements for blum and jmike. Better to go for younger prospects who can fill in in 2 or 3 years when blum, jmike, kepp, lee, and puma are all gone. you’re trying to fill roster spots we don’t have and aren’t projected to have until the end of the season, assuming we don’t resign jmike and snag lance for hopefully less than his 15mil. blum is a more than adequate bench player and will likely resign, unless youve heard something I havent, and kepp is the best option, and better than anyone gave him credit for, at 2b, so theyre not going anywhere.

Pence has proved he’s better than rasmus. He can hit, go deep, run, and play the field. Bourn and rasmus are fairly equal except bourn will be the better fielder for years to come where rasmus may, may develop a slightly better bat with a little more pop, or he may not. I never said we had awesome players on the bench, just that freese and rasmus weren’t huge improvements over what we do have. Either on the field or on the bench. They’re not allstars, they’re fillins. they may develop intop more, but we don’t have any room on the roster for them right now, and by the time they do turn into more, and we have room for them, this trade deadline will be in the history books.

Pence, of the -1.0 WAR? and the OPS+ of 96? Pence who hasn’t posted a war above 1.7 in the last 3 years, including this one? Rasmus has a 2.1 WAR so far this year after beating Pence last year, too. No comparison. Rasmus is far superior and hasn’t even reached his potential.

Bourn has never posted a WAR greater than 2.3 and its arguable that he should get paid to play baseball.

I don’t understand this WAR thing, but I don’t think I’m wrong for looking at Rasmus AVG, SLG, OPS, and Fielding stats as compared to Pence and Bourn and not seeing anything to write home about. Sabermetrics may be the ruler right now, but I do know that Pence is good for 600ab, .280 avg, 25 homers, and maybe more if he continues to develop. He does swing at the low and away too much, has trouble lifting the ball sometimes, but how can you look at these stats and say they’re bad? He can hit, go deep, swipe a base when needed, beat out the double play, run down the line drives. What is it Pence can’t do? Your obsession with sabermetrics is ignoring the fact that Pence has been a very productive young player. Bourn is the same. He doesn’t have the pop, but as he makes adjustments he should be good for .280-.300 average down the line which will increase his steal opportunities. His fielding isn’t likely to decline for many years to come. Pence is a 5 tool player, bourn lacks the pop, but his speed and fielding make him invaluable when you have other power hitters to fill the gap, which is unknown as pertains to the future once lee and lance are gone, so arguing that is pointless.

Agree that they’re overhyping average players just because they look good in a poor farm, which as an astros fan we know something about poor farm systems, but lynn and sanchez are legit, or as legit as any young kid can be in a sport where 90% of the draftees never see regular time in the pros. freese is too old to be a prospect, and rasmus is just ok. a good starter, but not a great one like they claim. being ranked as a top prospect is only impressive if you can prove you are one.

Older and injured? Oswalt? Try again, man. He’s won the 3rd most games in baseball the last 10 years and the only reasons he isn’t #1 is because the Astros suck and haven’t given him run support; 2 or fewer runs in FIFTY + of his starts. Despite that, he’s still top 3 in wins. Check your facts.

I’ve got to say after reading many of these comments that last few days, the Astro fans are giving the Braves fans a run for their money. That’s not intended to be a compliment. Someone said Lunacy. A very fitting word for what may transpire. There has to be someone in both the Phils and Cards front office that going to come out any moment and say “wait an f’ing minute”

I don’t care for the Phils much, but for whatever reason I repect the Cards organization and I’d like to see them make a run, coming from a Yank fans. This whole Oswalt thing is a potential disaster and I’m telling you if the Cards are involved, they’ll regret it. However to be fair, I really don’t know their financial situation, so if they feel they can absorb the risk involved, so be it. I just hope this stupid move now, doesn’t impact their ability to work with Albert long term.

As a Phillies fan and someone who has seen the team acquire both Cliff Lee and Halladay for less than what the Astros are asking at lower contracts for the ace pitcher involved (Phils got $6 mil in the Halladay deal to offset his salary and saved between $3-6 mil a year estimated in their below market negotiation), the Astros front office is absolutely bonkers if they think they will get more than the Indians, Phillies, or Mariners got for Cliff Lee or the Jays got for Halladay. It’s one thing to start high in negotiations, but to start higher than two other ace pitchers who were just traded who had team friendly contracts is not a good thing at all.

Dude, I hear you. the Astros are asking more than the C.C. Sabathia trade two years ago. He could be hit by a bus and pitch the next day. The epitome of durable. Like I said, Oswalt is going no where. The fact that he is demanding his 2012 option to be picked up just adds more flavor to this discussion. I have no idea who wants what and who is doing what’s best for who.

I remember reading (don’t have time to look for the report right now) that the entire reason they were considering moving Werth was because they could not afford to sign him to an extension? How does it make sense, then, that they would trade him only to acquire Oswalt and the ~$16M a season owed to him?

Is it the contract length? Including superior prospects to get the Astros to pick up a large chunk of the tab? Or am I just flat-out remembering something that didn’t happen?

It’s not so much that they can’t afford him, it’s that he hasn’t signed any of the offers ttheyve given him. Amaro apparently hates to lose guys to FA, so if he’s not going to sign now, there goig to try and get the most they possibly can for him.

Ramos isn’t the kind of prospect you want playing 1b.. He is the best defensive catcher in the Twins system, so he has much more value at catcher. He is not mashing in the minors right now, although scouts are very high on his hitting ability and think he will develop good power. After a rough start in AAA, he’s hitting around .450 i believe in July.

OK Ill explain.
Phillies are trying to trade Jayson werth and a Minor League PLayer for Both B.J. Upton and Wade Davis. Astros wont both of those guys Astros are looking for an OF to replace Carlos Lee becouse A. Berkman wont be back next year even he knows this and not at the Salary he is making. So B this would be where they Move Carlos Lee to 1B and want an OF. Ok know lets check this out. Carlos Lee’s No Trade Clause opens in the end of 2011 therefore he could be traded.”he doesnt want to but it wouldnt be his to make”

Ok David Freese can play 1B and if Lee Struggles he could be flopped for Freese. Also Note that Johnson and Freese can Both PLay out field therefore hold value. OK so if Astro’s pursued a trade that would send Micheal Bourn out for a SP PROSPECT IE Braves Mike Minor or Teaheran or the other guy then they could use Freese at 1B. And leave Lee in the OF or Vis versa.

We arent over valueing him its what will happen.

You have to make a team want to trade a top pitcher ACE in your own devision who is in the NL and on a Rival plus who said they would restructure his contract to help the team out. Think about it for a sec. ACE plus Relief arm Plus 8.5 Million for Rasmus who has all of 1 year under his belt Miller who is 19 and in the Minors for atleast 2 more years Freese who will push Lopez to the Bench. But you are saying your rotation of Carpenter Oswalt Wainwright Garcia and Penny wouldnt haunt other teams when they reach the play offs? You would make teams have to try and beat your SP not your bats. Most of whom on your staff can let 1 or 2 runs and your bats can put up like 6 or 7. When most teams play against you they worry about your bats more then Sp but when you addanother ACE they cant dodge all 4 ACES. Suppan needs to retire. there is your missing link. Sorry to say but Garcia is the Question mark.

If we can move lee to 1b after lance leaves, that’s the only way he is worth any part of his contract because he’s a liability in lf, and that says something as shallow as it is. Bourn is perfect for our cf with the hill, the flagpole, etc, we need someone with wheels. Johnson can play of no doubt, and there might be something to that is kavi-whatshisname can develop quickly and come up as the future 3b, but that’s hoping a lot right now. Either way Bourn needs to stay and Lee needs to move somewhere where his speed isn’t a liability, like to his cattle ranch

Roy Oswalt said he would restructure his contract for the Cards Only. The Astros also say they will Pay some of the Money Owed to Oswalt 8 or 9 million so in reality Shelby Miller Colby Rasmus and David Freese and you got yourself another Ace who will flurish in St.Louis.

Anyone who thinks St. Louis is getting Rasums AND Miller is high. Plain and simple. Hell, trading Rasums in an Oswalt deal hurts their team this year. They’ve already got an insane Top 3 with Wainwright, Carpenter, and Garcia. In the meantime, they’re fielding a lineup that frequently includes Brendan Ryan, Skip Schumaker, and Yadier Molina.

1) DeWitt is willing to increase payroll significantly. Very significantly. It is possible, because they must have been planning for a Pujols extension for a while now. They could potentially sign Pujols to a heavily backloaded deal to accommodate Oswalt’s option year.

2) Cardinals are realizing they won’t be able to sign Pujols and are going all-out to win with him.

3) Pujols has stated that he wants to stay as long as the Cardinals are committed to fielding a winning team. Acquiring Holliday (+extension) and opening up the books for Oswalt in consecutive seasons…. you can’t be any more committed than that. In other words, Card’s are fulfilling their end of the bargain and putting the pressure on Pujols to put his money where his mouth is.

Being a Twins fan, it was nice to see Mauer take a hometown discount to stay, but 184 million is still an absolute TON of money. So a discount doesn’t mean Pujols is going to play for 15 mil a year.. He is the best player in the game, and I’m guessing here, but he is going to get as much as, or more than Mauer correct? That is still going to be a ton of money.

I like the cards, and I would love to see them add payroll, but adding Oswalt at full price on top of Pujols seems like a huge jump.

It’s hard to say, really. I agree that Pujols is going to get the biggest contract in team history, discount or no discount. But like I said, the Card’s must have been preparing for that.

Oswalt’s option would only overlap the first year of Pujols’ extension, so Pujols could agree to a lower base for that year and still receive a great total amount and a higher AAV by spreading the difference over later years in the contract. And if Oswalt restructures it will certainly help. Lohse will also be off the books around that time too, if I’m not mistaken. Regardless, it will take some creativity to make it work, but I don’t think its impossible.

Seriously, why is Brendan Ryan even mentioned anywhere as a player of interest in any trade? A 28-year-old with a career OPS+ of 76 and a pathetic mark of 42 this year? Above average shortstop defensively? Sure. But if you want that, go sign Adam Everett. Reports including his name don’t even make sense.

This is absurd sounding but you have to think HOU wants to bring Loney “home” if they are seriously talking to LA about Oswalt. So… (don’t get me wrong, I don’t care for the following scenario): Oswalt, Berkman & $$$ to LA for Loney & ???

I really, really think that the Cardinals don’t need Oswalt to make the playoffs.

Oswalt is awesome. He’s a 4 WAR pitcher, easily. The Cardinals are a better team with him.

Thing is, you’ve got problems with Albert Pujols is on the roster making 20++ MM/yr, Holliday’s getting 17MM/yr, and you don’t have a lot in terms of prospects. Using Miller to get someone who’s cost-controlled, namely in the middle infield, might make a lot of sense.

And, simply replacing Hawksworth and Suppan with league average pitchers gets the Cardinals 2 wins per pitcher. Penny returning fills one void, and trading for someone like Westbrook or Sheets fills the other. And no giving up Miller.

I really, really think that the Cardinals don’t need Oswalt to make the playoffs.

Oswalt is awesome. He’s a 4 WAR pitcher, easily. The Cardinals are a better team with him.

Thing is, you’ve got problems with Albert Pujols is on the roster making 20++ MM/yr, Holliday’s getting 17MM/yr, and you don’t have a lot in terms of prospects. Using Miller to get someone who’s cost-controlled, namely in the middle infield, might make a lot of sense.

And, simply replacing Hawksworth and Suppan with league average pitchers gets the Cardinals 2 wins per pitcher. Penny returning fills one void, and trading for someone like Westbrook or Sheets fills the other. And no giving up Miller.

More than about WAR and peace among the trading partners, this is about how the LaRussas, Manuels, Cashmans, et al. perceive his ability to help their clubs either stretch their advantage or gain one over the competition well into this postseason and possibly next. Do they think Roy Oswalt can help them win games, BIG games enough to make a significant payment in terms of top prospects? The Astros have no interest in marginal major leaguers in their late 20’s, or 4A players who can’t crack the big league lineup. While that type of player may be a throw-in in the overall deal, they will demand TOP minor league talent — talent at virtually any position which will help set them up for 2012, 2013 and beyond — as the centerpiece. Short of that, the Astros can walk away and tell Roy and everyone else, “Ok, boys, this ain’t workin’. Let’s talk again in the offseason. Good luck in your pennant races.”

Happ would be a bridge piece to add to their rotation — and probably vie with Myers immediately for the role of staff “ace” with Roy gone — but they’re far more interested in the Shelby Millers, who could be dominant and help them contend in 2013, than low-ceiling, major league-ready talent to help them jump from a 65-win team to a 75-win team over the next two years.

Drayton McLane was bemoaning the fact that the Redbirds snatched up Miller, a Texas product, right from under their noses in last year’s draft. They were apparently poised to take him at 21 but never got the chance.

Exactly. Everyone keeps repeating the line about the Astros saying they’re not sure about Miller as the centerpiece of a deal, and interpreting it to mean that they don’t want him. I interpret it to be simple negotiation tactics, with the Astros trying to squeeze more high-upside players out of the Cards.

This is what the Cardinals should do, and ill explain why
Houston gets: Shelby Miller, Allen Craig, Brendan Ryan, and Blake Hawkswerth
St. Louis gets: Roy Oswalt
Reason for Shelby Miller: Hes on 19, hasnt proved him self yet, talent comes from all around the draft for instance Albert Pujols in the 13th round so hes becoming overrated for just being 19, and he still has around 3 years to go before hes in the bigs
Reason for Allen Craig: The cards have to many young outfielders, Never ganna get a real starting job with Matt Holliday, Rasmus, Ludwick and Jay, and good trade bait, and id rather keep Jay over Craig
Reason for Brendan Ryan: Batting 188, Not great defense, Still young, and i think we should try Tyledr Greene at Short and give up on Ryan
Reason for Blake Hawkswerth: hed just make a good addition to the trade to make it done, still young reliever and spot starter, id throw him in there if the Astros still want a little more then that offer.

Dodgers may have $2-3 million to spend on upgrading team according to Dylan Hernandez but they are hot in pursuit of Oswalt. ROTFLMAO.Dodgers are on the verge of divorce court judge forcing sale because McCourts cant pay attorneys fees and they are suddenly going to add Oswalt and his salary?No Way!

Sabermetrics may be the new thing, but there’s no proof that it’s any better than using conventional stats. Well, i correct myself, there’s plenty of proof, but the method also has its opponents. I’m willing to admit that it is useful, but I don’t see it as necessary to gauge the quality of players. Sabermetrics don’t take into consideration any of the x-fators that players deal with on a daily basis. Therefor I don’t need to read up on WAR as I won’t be using it to defend any of my posts.

As for paragraphs, I’m actually a fairly well educated writer, no harvard grad I admit, but always high marks. I don’t feel the need to spell/grammar check my posts to impress the blogging community as a whole when making speculative comments about the future of a number of baseball players. Catch me writing a term paper proposal this way and boy, will my face be read.