Ratings Roundup: 2014 Statewide Elections

Our final pre-election handicapping of the gubernatorial, attorney general and legislative contests.

Election Day isn't just a day of reckoning for candidates, it's a day of reckoning for us, too.

Over the past 24 months, we've been publishing periodic ratings that handicap the nation's gubernatorial races, state attorney general contests and partisan control in the state legislative chambers. Now, before Election Night, we're putting them all together in one final frenzy of ratings that readers can use as a guide to watching the returns.

Over the past few weeks, we've noticed a modest breeze blowing in the direction of the Republicans in some select states. In gubernatorial races, we've decided to shift two states' ratings in the GOP's favor -- New Mexico and Rhode Island. In state AG races, three states are moving into the GOP's camp -- Texas, Utah and Nevada. And in the fight to control the nation's legislatures, we're shifting two states in the Republican direction, the Connecticut Senate and the Nevada General Assembly.

The only race we're shifting towards the Democrats is the New Mexico AG race.

Given that we have been tracking more than 150 races or chambers, that's a pretty strong degree of stability in the electoral picture. This, despite how close this year's gubernatorial races have been. We currently rate no fewer than 18 of the 36 seats being contested as "competitive," meaning they're either tossups or leaning to one party or the other. One additional race -- in Pennsylvania -- is already considered likely to switch parties.

Of these 18 competitive seats, 12 are considered tossups. That's a huge number. In 2010 -- the last cycle with so many governors races contested -- we counted only seven tossup contests. This large number of tossups greatly complicates the job of handicapping for us, due to the methodology we use for our ratings.

For the gubernatorial and AG races, we not only offer a rating, such as tossup or lean Democratic, but also a rank ordering. That is, the list can be viewed as a continuum between the states or races most likely to go Republican (at the top) and the states most likely to go Democratic (at the bottom). The idea is that, once the results are in, we should be able to draw a line somewhere in the middle of the tossup category and divide the seats won by the GOP from the seats won by the Democrats.

For the gubernatorial races, we achieved this result in 2012 and were off by just one contest in 2010. But with 12 tossup races clustering around the middle this year, there's a much higher chance that the middle of our list will end up being jumbled between Republican-won and Democratic-won seats.

Currently, the Republicans hold the lead in governorships: 29 seats to the Democrats' 21. The range of possible Election Day outcomes for gubernatorial races is broad -- a net gain of nine or 10 seats for either party is possible. However, if a strong national wave doesn't materialize and the contests are decided more or less on their own merits, than a net gain of one or two seats for the Democrats seems likeliest.

Similarly, with attorney general contests, it's possible that either party could net up to five seats on Election Day, but without a strong wave, the likeliest outcome would be either no net change or a gain of one seat in either party's direction. Currently, the Democrats hold 26 seats to the Republicans 24. The Democrats' lead in popularly elected AGs is narrower -- 22 seats to 21.

Finally, in the state legislatures, the GOP is poised to pick up three to four chambers, though the outcomes could range from a Democratic gain of one or two to a Republican gain of eight or nine. The current partisan breakdown in state legislatures is 58 Republican-held chambers and 40 Democratic-held chambers.