What the U.S. can realistically do in Iraq

By Nada Bakos and Tara Maller

updated 11:25 AM EDT, Thu August 14, 2014

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters assemble at a shrine on Iraq's Mount Sinjar on Friday, December 19. The Kurdish military said that with the help of coalition airstrikes, it has "cleansed" the area of ISIS militants. ISIS has been advancing in Iraq and Syria as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region.

A Peshmerga fighter looks down at the body of an alleged ISIS fighter in Zummar, Iraq, on Thursday, December 18.

A Kurdish fighter stands next to a destroyed armored vehicle in northern Iraq on December 18. The vehicle was destroyed by an improvised explosive device placed by ISIS militants.

Peshmerga fighters stop to check a vehicle in Zummar on December 18 as they continue to battle ISIS fighters near the border with Syria.

Pro-Iraqi government forces guard a shrine in Balad, Iraq, on Monday, December 15.

A Yazidi woman displaced by ISIS militants tends to a fire Wednesday, December 10, at a shelter in Dohuk, Iraq.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani, Syria, area holds laundry at a refugee camp in Suruc, Turkey, on Monday, November 17. Tens of thousands of people have fled Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, to escape ISIS.

Smoke rises from Kobani following airstrikes on November 17. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets to take out the group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.

A Kurdish child from the Kobani area holds on to a fence at a refugee camp in Suruc on Sunday, November 16.

People in Suruc watch smoke rise near the Syrian border during clashes between ISIS members and armed groups on Thursday, November 13.

A bomb (upper left) falls on an ISIS position in Kobani during an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, November 8.

Iraqi military forces take up position in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on November 8.

Fire and smoke rise from Kobani following airstrikes against ISIS on Thursday, October 30.

Iraqi special forces search a house in Jurf al-Sakhar on October 30 after retaking the area from ISIS.

Smoke rises during fighting in Kobani on Monday, October 27.

ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23.

An explosion rocks Kobani during a reported car-bomb attack by ISIS militants on Monday, October 20.

People watch Kobani from a hill near the Turkey-Syria border on October 20.

Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they fight ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19.

A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18.

Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, October 18.

Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani.

Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds have been held there since crossing from Syria into Turkey.

Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13.

Smoke rises from Kobani on Sunday, October 12.

Syrian Kurds from Kobani stand outside the grounds of a refugee camp in Suruc on Saturday, October 11.

Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6.

In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants.

A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk on Tuesday, September 30.

Iraqi Shiite militiamen aim their weapons during clashes with ISIS militants in Jurf al-Sakhar on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28.

Syrian Kurds wait behind border fences to cross into Suruc on September 28.

Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23.

Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria.

An ISIS flag flies on the other side of a bridge at the front line of fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Rashad, Iraq, on Thursday, September 11.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reads on a flight en route to Iraq on Wednesday, September 10. Kerry traveled to the Mideast to discuss ways to bolster the stability of the new Iraqi government and combat ISIS.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9.

An Iraqi fighter jet flies over Amerli, Iraq, on September 3. Amerli had been under siege by ISIS militants.

Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24.

Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24.

Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it.

Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19.

A fighter with Kurdish Peshmerga forces battles ISIS militants near Mosul on Monday, August 18.

Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18.

Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14.

Volunteers of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society unload boxes of goods before distributing them August 14 to families who fled from ISIS.

From the flight deck of the USS George H.W. Bush, which is in the Persian Gulf, two U.S. fighter jets take off for a mission in Iraq on Monday, August 11. U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic militants and food drops for Iraqis who are trapped by the militants.

Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9.

Iraqi Shiite volunteers who have joined government forces to fight ISIS take part in a training session near Basra, Iraq, on Thursday, August 7.

Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances.

A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31.

A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants.

Iraqis who fled fighting in the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar try to enter a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Wednesday, July 2.

Peshmerga fighters check cars at the entrance of a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Thursday, June 26.

Kurdish Peshmerga take their positions behind a wall on the front line of the conflict with ISIS militants in Tuz Khormato, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 25.

Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25.

New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters.

An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17.

Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala, Iraq, on June 17.

Members of ISIS prepare to execute soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images.

Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service Thursday, June 12, in Baghdad.

Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12.

Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10.

Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10.

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Former CIA analysts: After 10 years, U.S. has limited ability to change things in Iraq

They say the U.S. goal should be to contain the problem and prevent catastrophe

Analysts: U.S. is right to address humanitarian crisis on Mount Sinjar

Editor's note: Nada Bakos is a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who was on the team charged with analyzing terrorism issues in Iraq and was one of those featured in the Emmy award winning HBO documentary, "Manhunt." Tara Maller, who holds a doctorate in political science from MIT, is a research fellow in the International Security Program at the New America Foundation and a former CIA military analyst who focused on Iraq. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the authors.

(CNN) -- Over the past few days, politicians and experts have been debating the merits of the Obama administration's strategy in Iraq -- or whether there is in fact a strategy.

The debate generally ignores a key underlying fact: The United States no longer has the ability or the will to shape the outcome in Iraq to the degree that American policy makers would like.

At the same time, politicians on both sides of the aisle appear constrained in their ability to talk candidly about U.S. foreign policy objectives and strategy because of concerns about domestic public opinion and so they often default to partisan sound bites.

Nada Bakos

Tara Maller

In an ideal world, U.S. strategy would be carefully calibrated and aimed at a number of political, military and economic goals for the country and the region.

Yet the dynamics of the U.S. relationship with Iraq is similar to most dysfunctional relationships in which problematic patterns repeat and persist over time.

One party may in fact be able to change the entrenched dysfunctional behavior of another person at the margins, but at the end of the day, countries -- as do people -- need to take responsibility for their behavior, their mistakes and their future.

Unfortunately, the reality is that after more than 10 years of trying to shape outcomes in Iraq, the United States is forced to acknowledge it doesn't have the leverage we expected. The next best option is to find a solution that encompasses our values but doesn't err on the side of unrealistic idealism.

U.S. weighs options to rescue Yazidis

Yazidis fleeing potential genocide

America's greatest failure has perhaps been our unwavering belief that we are always able to positively influence and shape the behavior of others through rhetoric, coercion, force and diplomacy. Leverage, as the United States has historically defined it, is not as relevant in today's conflicts. However, the conditions are not ripe for the United States to pull Iraq out of this quagmire given the lack of interest in America after over a decade of war and the political gridlock here and in Iraq.

In our time as analysts at the CIA, we were asked to present the opposite of what political punditry and partisan speeches tend to do. We were often asked to outline worst-case scenarios, speak truth to power and accurately assess dynamics on the ground. We were not supposed to sugarcoat our analysis to make it more palatable or to cater to the audience with empty words or false optimism. We were trained to try to objectively assess and analyze the veracity of reporting to help inform policymakers' decisions.

So, while it may not be politically popular for a leader or a president to say that "we can't influence longer-term outcomes to the degree that we'd like in Iraq, so we are adopting a strategy to avert worst-case scenarios and contain catastrophe," this is precisely the strategy we believe ought to be adopted right now.

We need an honest strategy based on containing catastrophe. In other words, our strategy at this point ought to be designed to thwart the worst outcomes from occurring and it should focus on preventing moral, humanitarian and security catastrophes.

The United States can make a significant difference in the lives of Iraqis and in the realm of our own national security even if the future of Iraq ultimately rests in hands of Iraqis.

The Islamic State, known by the acronym ISIS, is on a rampage to take over and control territory. The United States must degrade ISIS capabilities so that it is unable to launch a significant terrorist attack on U.S. interests (or a large mass casualty attack anywhere in the world).

ISIS is a product of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's organization dating back to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. After Zarqawi was killed in 2006, the Islamic State of Iraq emerged from his original organization and began to flourish.

ISIS has capitalized on (former) Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's unwillingness to work with the local Sunni populations and the power vacuum left by Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.

ISIS and Zarqawi's organization have thrived on sectarian violence, but ISIS has managed to professionalize military and humanitarian aid. As ISIS disperses and embeds in populated areas, it will become more difficult to root out.

Its possible Achilles heel is the eventual erosion of local support from Sunnis while ISIS asserts control to govern and maintain territory. This gives the U.S. an opening to work with the Iraq and Kurdish government, in addition to regional allies, by helping to resolve a humanitarian crisis and limiting the group's ability to acquire new territory for safe haven.

The U.S. ought to continue targeted airstrikes with cooperation from Iraqi security forces and allies -- whether that takes days, weeks or months.

Second, we can and should prevent the potential for genocide or ethnic cleansing in Iraq. Arguing that the United States hasn't acted in other areas of the world or can't act in every single case of violence is not an argument against acting when we are able to make a difference.

And, we are able to make a difference right now in northern Iraq at a moment of crisis -- such as the operation underway assisting those stranded and dying on Mount Sinjar -- and we should also turn our eyes to the humanitarian crisis in Syria, where the U.S. can also make difference.

If the U.S. can support the local population and help to bolster local governments, ISIS will have a much more difficult time recruiting and controlling territory. Jabhat al-Nusra is an example of how successfully terrorist organizations can galvanize support and generate influence among local populations through charitable efforts.

Third, we must prevent terrorist groups operating in Iraq and Syria from acquiring biological or chemical weapons that they would be able to use in a mass casualty attack. From a national security perspective, it's important to remember Syria's al-Assad has not relinquished all of his chemical and biological weapons. The last thing we want is for these to fall in the hands of ISIS.

Fourth, ISIS has attracted young fighters who understand how to talk to prospective recruits through all forms of media. Some of those recruits are Western passport holders and they are possibly the largest number of Western citizens identified fighting alongside a terrorist organization.

Not only do they pose a threat in the region, individuals can also be difficult to track from the war theater when returning home.

Lastly, the United States should work to maintain the security of its embassies and consulates. The recent evacuations and relocations of staff are a troublesome trend (albeit for the safety and security of diplomatic personnel). Ensuring that our diplomats are able to safely operate and function in foreign countries, especially Iraq, is critical.

Any type of serious attack on an embassy or U.S. personnel working in the country would make it increasingly difficult for the United States to address the issues we discuss above. In addition, maintaining a functioning embassy is important for information collection, assessing progress and being able to work with Iraqis -- particularly on the political side of the equation.

A foreign policy strategy speech predicated on containing catastrophe might not be a speech that inspires the American public, but it is an honest strategy that would be based on a realistic approach to our foreign policy in Iraq.

Such an approach is good for America's national security and for addressing the humanitarian concerns of those suffering during crisis.