Embraer’s Third Quarter: Embraer delivered fewer commercial airplanes in the third quarter than had been expected. The maker of E-Jets and the E-Jet E2 re-engined versions due beginning in 2018 listed its deliveries and backlog in its press release. Analysts expects 22 E-Jets would be delivered in the quarter. But the backlog is up 44% year-over-year, largely on the strength of the launch of the E2 (150 orders, 100 of which are for the smallest E-175 E2 and 25 each for the E-190/195 E2), and orders from Republic Airways Holdings and SkyWest Airlines for the current generation of E-Jets. The E-175 remains to most frequently-ordered airplane.

Although Embraer is expanding the size of the E-195-E2 by up to 12 seats, orders have been few. The E-190 has proved a better-selling model than the E-195.

Source: Embraer

Officials expect to have a healthy fourth quarter delivery stream.

Mitsubishi MRJ:Assembly for the first Mitsubishi MRJ Flight Test Vehicle (to borrow Bombardier’s term for the CSeries) is underway. The first delivery was originally planned for this year; it’s now planned for 2017, four years late. This rivals Boeing’s 787 and exceeds the Airbus A350 and as yet the CSeries.

JAL, ANA Politics: Reuters has an analysis about the suspicion politics may have been involved in the decision by Japan Airlines to buy the Airbus A350 and the pending order by ANA of an Airbus or Boeing airplane.

But according to the article, that didn’t play a role in the JAL order; remember JAL only informed the government via email at the same time the press was informed. The free trade agreement, according to the article, may play a role for the ANA order, though. Reversely, this would imply that an ANA Boeing order would be a political statement as well.

Also, the whole article basically says that ANA and JAL exclusively ordering Boeing previously was in large part due to political considerations. Not that that is a surprise to anyone here, but it’s the first time I see this so clearly discussed in a publicly available news article.

Looks like JAL really likes the A350, it seems they went to considerable lengths to hide this deal from the government until it was a done deal. That implies that the government still supports Boeing and might have killed it if they know about it soon enough. ANA will nearly certainly take 777-X because they won’t be given a choice. Or could Airbus can move some production to Japan to counter potential loss of Boeing work? Maybe A350 wings if the decide they need to go beyond 13/month?

I don’t think wing – I think it is possible you could see a Japanese A351-dedicated FAL.

This is not intended to imply that the A350 needs extraordinary help to sell. There appears ample evidence that it does not. I just think Japan, Inc. is a very real force in the Japanese ordering process, and once they decided they no longer wanted to be in the Boeing camp, I suspect they were looking for a way to get into the Airbus camp with both feet. If so, I think Japan might be a very appealing location for an FAL, and Airbus needs another one for the A350 badly.

I think Airbus will be hoping to use some of the R+D done for the 787 production. Apart from overcoming political prejudice, duel sourcing is becoming the norm to de -risk production interruption. What exactly I don’t claim to know but something significant.

All said and done, Airbus won on its merits with JAL; first and foremost-777X is not available when JAL wants it ; B has been sitting on a 777X decision ,what , now for almost two or three years ; waiting for what 350-1000 will be or become. Clearly they lost ,compounded by the 787 issues which continue today. On its own, ANA would ,I believe, go for A 350-1000 as well for the same reason -777X is subject to program launch, project management and on time delivery ;B has clearly lost its edge in the wide body , though it may be a bit early . First the Max ,delayed decision and now 777X ,the management sitting on it, milking the 300 ER. Boeing loves to milk their cash cows, don’t they?

I thought the pacing item in the development and EIS of the 777x is its engines. If my understanding is correct, the 777x could not fly any earlier no matter how much sooner it is launched because its engines would not be ready.

ANA may well order the 777X as big twin for after 2020, probably seating up to 250 passengers. They need a 777-200ER sized long haul aircraft too this decade and 787-10 is not the right aircraft for long heavy flights to the US and Europe. So IMO an A350 order seems inevitable, even if the 777X is ordered.