A new flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill
between 5-150 million people, a UN health official warned.

David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses
to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new
outbreaks.

"The consequences in terms of human life when
the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging,"
Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in
Asia since 2003.

It has killed huge numbers of birds and led to more
than 60 human deaths.

"It's like a combination of global warming and
HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it's running at the moment," Dr Nabarro
told the BBC.

The UN's new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza
said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans
was high.

Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there
is a possibility "that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa
or in the Middle East", he warned.

The comments came as agriculture ministers from the
Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed a three-year plan
to combat the spread of the virus, and pledged $2m to fund research and
training.

Dr Nabarro stressed he would be working hard to control
bird flu through contact with farming communities and markets where birds
are sold and looking at the migration of wild birds.

He said the number of deaths from any future influenza
pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered
and the kind of response they got from governments.

"The range of deaths could be anything between
5m and 150m," said Dr Nabarro.

"I believe that the work we're doing over the
next few months will make the difference between, for example, whether the
next pandemic leads us in the direction of 150 or in the direction of five.
"So our effectiveness will be directly measured in lives saved and
the consequences for the world."

The appointment of Dr Nabarro is an indication of how
seriously the UN is taking the threat, the BBC's UN correspondent Suzannah
Price says.

In his new role, he is meant to ensure that the
UN has a co-ordinated response to bird flu and that it helps global efforts
to prepare for any human flue pandemic, our correspondent says.

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