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But the Golden State isn’t the golden opportunity the GOP thought it was this cycle. Nearly every Republican in California and in D.C. privately concedes the same thing: They could wake up on Nov. 7 having lost every competitive seat in the state.

House Republican leaders, who hoped to be on offense in California, are now playing an expensive game of political defense.

The story of why this is happening is best told in California’s sleepy state capital, which has morphed into the most competitive House media market in the country.

Two Republican incumbents in GOP seats — Reps. Jeff Denham and Dan Lungren — are on the ropes against well-funded Democratic challengers. Despite their own polling — which has shown both men below 50 percent — they refuse to concede the race is truly close.

The American Action Network — which has spent tens of millions of dollars supporting House Republicans — has had to spend roughly $3 million to prop Denham up — their biggest expenditure in the nation. Internal polling has both races near a dead heat.

And because Republicans are on defense in those two seats, they can’t lend help to GOP challenger Kim Vann, a 37-year-old county executive, who is running against liberal Rep. John Garamendi in a barely Democratic district that stretches north of Sacramento. In fact, the media market is so saturated, outside groups are having difficulty finding air time to buy.

A series of missteps, a popular incumbent president, a saturated media market and a population with a large percentage of minorities makes winning seats in this state a tall task for House Republicans.

They also can’t really criticize the health care law, which is more popular here. And incumbents are difficult to dislodge.

In essence, the national party’s entire election playbook is rendered ineffective in California.

To show how uphill the climb is here for Republicans, perhaps their best hope for knocking off a Democrat is in a Stockton-area seat, where Ricky Gill — a 25-year-old Indian American with piles of cash — is trying to paint Rep. Jerry McNerney as a Bay Area liberal who moved into the moderate valley to save his political career. Here’s the problem: President Barack Obama won that district by 16 percent in 2008.

And it’s not only Northern California where Republicans are seeing their fortunes flip. In Palm Springs, Rep. Mary Bono Mack (R-Calif.) is seeing her race tighten. In San Diego, Rep. Brian Billbray’s race is also close.

Republicans counter and say Democrats have made mistakes too. They didn’t find a candidate to run against Republican Rep. Gary Miller in a Democratic seat in the southern part of the state. Republicans are also poised to hold a seat in the northern part of the state, and snatch another in the south.

It’s crucial that Republicans make inroads in California because it’s now the most competitive House landscape in the nation. To build — and sustain — a strong majority in D.C., both parties will have to learn how to win in the state. So far, it’s bedeviled Republicans.

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Readers' Comments (96)

This is actually a good thing. The state needs to remain solidly in the hands of the Democratic party because it's headed for a major fall and we want to be sure that it is very clear which party is responsible for the economic collapse of what used to be the bellweather state.

* The state is inviting more and more illegals, with no jobs and few skills, into the state, placing a burden on the social support networks that they can no longer afford to maintain.

* More and more white, working class Americans are deserting the state due to the higher crime, higher taxes, and declining opportunity.

* More and more businesses are deserting the state due to the excessive taxes and regulation.

* California's budget has been nearly $16 billion in the red for the past few years, and it looks like there will be no change to that in the foreseeable future.

* President Romney is NOT going to be sympathetic to having the federal government bail out a state that has shown such utter stupidity in managing their economic affairs. When New York City was on the ropes due to Democratic party mismanagement, President Ford told them to DROP DEAD! President Romney will have the same response to California. They can only hope that a solid Republican will come along to guide them back to prosperity as Guilliani did to New York.

In essence, the national party’s entire election playbook is rendered ineffective in California.

Of course it is.

While spots of economic success remain, California has quite possibly passed the tipping point and become little more than home to uneducated peasants, and undereducated dependants.

What has historically been the shinning beacon of economic prosperity is now fully owned by liberal/progressive forces who have achieved a remarkable feat.

They have single handedly turned one of the worlds premier economies into a cesspool of debt, taxation, regualtion, union corruption, educational failure, and economic collapse.

As voters continue to demonstrate their desire to be led by the nose, personal responsibility and achievement have no place in the minds of those who have surrendered their futures to the whim of the politicians who control them.

The republican party is doomed to lose future elections unless they change the taliban like... religious extremist .... determination to control peoples religious beliefs, sexual behaviors, and abortion related issues.... if they would stick to conservative philosophy on economic, financial and, tax issues , national security and foreign policy....they would win... the nation iorientation is center right...but when then try to force their taliban social beliefs on others...they lose.... so..how long will it take for the old white religious extremist republicans to die out... and let in some new...moderate...non white republicans... alas...it may take a long time...and the republican party may die out before this happens.

@Foxfan: Since the 1980's all state taxes, fines, and permits have gone up in price. Why, you ask? Reaganomics. He came into office with the top individual Federal Income tax bracket at 70% on all taxable income, and by the time he left office it was down to 28%. Our spending went up as well, so the difference had to be made up elsewhere, the states.

It's actually quite hilarious watching people call raising the top individual Federal Income tax back up to just shy of 40% socialism. Especially when those same people always talk about the idealized America way back when it was so much better than today. Yet they fail to mention that, way back when(1940's-1960's) Americans paid upwards of 70-94% on their taxable income. These are all facts, inconvenient to some, and a burden on 99% of us.

Republicans have yet to learn how to match the only real California opportunities belonging to illegals who can parlay that status into a good middle class income, get reduced rates for everything else or get it free and the overpaid under talent Hollywood types who, like Obama, like to have their bellies er egos rubbed. Once bought by a few $5k a plate dinners they stay bought.

Was Arnold a Republican? I think Arnold was an Opportunist who played at being a political figure. He apparently played at a lot of things - demonstrating his acting skills and his testosterone-driven compulsion with the women who crossed his path. As a Republican voter, I never thought it a good idea to run actors inexperienced in government. Come to think of it, we elected the current president who is clearly an actor playing the role of head of state. It's time for us to really consider the depth of knowledge and experience that comes with our candidates, Republicans or Democrats, and set aside the spoilers who could make no headway even as third party candidates. I can think of some really great Democrats and some really great Republicans, so I'm not trying to be partisan in my views. And we all have to admit that some of Democrat and some of our Republican leaders have been mighty disappointments. If it's Bush and it comes from Texas, I vote no. If it's Democrat and it comes from Chicago, I vote no. And if it come from California - I don't think we can afford it.

Republicans not harping against Obamacare? Republicans saying we need to hire more teachers and firefighters? And they still can't win in California? What can they do? Let's see; they're last big winner was Arnold, a moderate Republican liberal on social issues and a Hollywood movie star. Maybe the California Republican Party needs to recruit Chuck Norris and Tom Selleck to run for something. It worked, after all, when they did it with Reagan. (Worked like it worked with Arnold -- a political victory that didn't work out well for California, or the country, in Reagan's case).

California has large immigrant populations. The GOP is stridently nativist.

Californians believe a woman should be able to govern her own body. In a complete dismantling of their claimed love for small government, the GOP wants a bunch of male religionists to govern women's bodies.

California is full of smart, talented people and cutting edge technologies. The GOP is full of aging, white ignoramuses and Christian Dominionists.

If the GOP would lose the religious creeps like Akin, Mourdock, et al, maybe, perhaps, we could have a productive discussion with you.

The republican party has continued to move to the right in California and will continue to lose votes as long as it continues to do so. The democratic party in California hasn't defeated the republicans; the republicans have committed political suicide.

To Reply #5 & #7 - Well, dick, you unknowingly hit the problem right on the head when you said "spending went up".

That's the entire crux of the problem. California spends more than it takes in. It may make legislators feel like a real Santa Claus to give all these "free" benefits to people who are not paying into the system, but that money has to come from somewhere. And after people get tired of paying their own way and being forced to pay someone else's way too, they leave. Then where is the money going to come from? Well, it comes from the deficit that California is running up.

The comment about the amount of money paid to Washington vs the amount that comes back is totally irrelevant. The state of California does not pay that money, the TAXPAYERS pay that money to the federal government. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the finances of the state of California.

Democrats are oh so generous with other people's money, but sooner or later the piper has to be paid. And when that time comes, the entire state of California is going to look like Detroit does now. They should put a big gate around the city of Detroit and run tours through there to show people what happens when liberalism is allowed to run amok.