Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

NFL Wild Card Game Picks

Game

APR

SRS

Line

Cardinals @Panthers

Cardinalsρ=1.1332

Cardinals*δ=5.0

Panthers-6

Ravens @Steelers

Steelersρ=1.0762

Ravens*δ=2.4

Steelers-3

Lions @Cowboys

Cowboys*ρ=1.0480

Cowboysδ=3.3

Cowboys-7½

Bengals @Colts

Colts*ρ=1.0116

Coltsδ=3.7

Colts-3½

Comments:

We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks
without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and
Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the
longest without a playoff win.

By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the
playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a
playoff game in 2005.

Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the
49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against
the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals
will have a chance.

On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning
streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up,
the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year,
with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of
his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If
the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a
run in the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the
Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers
in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early
November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very
likely be done in short order.

They will almost certainly have to do better than that against
the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have
scored at least 28 points.

The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of
the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week
7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on
the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this
year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the
Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the
Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals
playoff drought is going to last another year.