POLITICO’s daily afternoon scorecard of the five biggest developments in the battle for the Senate.

Tommy Thompson creeps back in Wisconsin, Richard Mourdock doubles down on Harry Reid and talking greeting cards are dropping in Missouri.

Here’s Wednesday’s Senate 5:

1. TOMMY’S TURNAROUND — Despite the most recent distraction involving his son’s Kenya comment, Tommy Thompson is on the march in the Wisconsin Senate race. The Marquette University Law Poll released Wednesday shows the former governor has pulled to a virtual dead heat with Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin. He now leads her 46 percent to 45 percent — a difference of just three respondents, but a marked turnaround from two polls taken last month showing a Baldwin advantage. “The relatively new set of ads directed against Baldwin has really had its effect these last two weeks,” explained MU pollster Charles Franklin in his midday presentation of the results. Nowhere is that more evident than Baldwin’s favorability number, which has plummeted to a dangerous 32 percent — an 8-percentage-point drop from September. Thompson’s 37 percent favorability, meanwhile, remained basically unchanged. This marks Thompson’s first lead in a public poll since mid-August and cements the race as a top-tier battleground for both parties in the home stretch.

2. MOURDOCK’S LATEST HIT — Richard Mourdock is taking flight tonight with a new statewide commercial, provided first to POLITICO, that tethers Rep. Joe Donnelly to Sen. Harry Reid and “the liberal Democrats.” It’s his second straight ad rapping the majority leader in what’s become a central part of his strategy in the closing weeks. The driving message: Sending Donnelly to Washington will only cancel out GOP Sen. Dan Coats. It’s part of a $600,000 buy on cable and broadcast. Donnelly’s latest commercial uses Mitt Romney to make the case that Mourdock’s confrontational approach is at odds with even the presidential standard-bearer of his own party. Meanwhile, Howey Politics Indiana reports that a Super PAC supporting Mourdock is attempting to showcase Dick Lugar as an endorser on a mailer even though the senator has no plans to campaign for the GOP nominee. It’s murky territory because, however begrudingly, Lugar has said he will vote for Mourdock.

3. AKIN GREETING CARDS — Some Missouri voters are about to receive talking greeting cards with the voice of Todd Akin, but they’re not early season’s greetings from the troubled Senate hopeful. “Todd Akin Would Like A Few Words With You” reads the front of the mailer produced by the Democratic group American Bridge 21st Century. Open the card and you hear Akin’s voice reciting his indelible “legitimate rape” comment followed by a female narrator who guides the voter through his controversial statements on Social Security and student loans. Bridge is putting $37,000 behind the unique mailers targeting independent Missouri women, marking its first foray into paid communications beyond social media this cycle. “We figured there is no better way to show Missouri voters that Akin is unqualified to be a U.S. senator than to let him speak for himself,” said Bridge adviser Matt Thornton.

4. CONNIE MACK’S MOMENT — Senate debates rarely produce race-altering moments. But the one and only Florida Senate debate tonight at 7 p.m. is one of the last wide-reaching platforms for Rep. Connie Mack to shake up the race against Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. Make sure to tune in at the top for the fireworks: The first section is solely devoted to forcing the candidates to address the negative ads in the race. Otherwise, expect Mack to continually hitch the two-term Nelson to President Barack Obama while aligning himself with Mitt Romney. Nelson will portray himself as a moderate who is attentive to the state running against a “candidate who newspapers have said is unqualified to be senator,” according to a Tampa Bay Times preview. The stakes are clearly higher for Mack, who must present himself as a plausible alternative without coming off as too peevish.

5. DEMS RELY ON DAN COX — One thing is becoming clear in Montana: Democrats need Libertarian Dan Cox to help them keep incumbent Jon Tester in the Senate. A Public Policy Polling survey out Wednesday showed Tester leading Republican Rep. Denny Rehberg 46 percent to 44 percent, with Cox grabbing 7 percent of the vote. That’s significant because a Rasmussen Reports survey this week that didn’t include Cox showed Tester and Rehberg tied with 48 percent apiece. Democrats publicly acknowledged in a Wednesday memo that the third-party candidate gives them a leg up in the race. “None of Rasmussen’s surveys have named Libertarian Dan Cox — the third Senate candidate on the ballot this year,” wrote Chris Saeger, communications director for the Montana Democratic Party. “When Cox is included by name in polling — as he is on the ballot — he gains an average of 6% of the vote.” As POLITICO reported this week, Libertarian candidates in Montana, Missouri and Arizona could not only tip the outcome of key Senate races — they could help decide which party narrowly controls the upper chamber itself.

Who Won The Day: Indiana’s Richard Mourdock for drawing Sens. Lindsey Graham and John McCain to the state as polls show the race beginning to tilt in his direction.

Who Lost The Day: Heidi Heitkamp, for reporting about $900,000 less cash-on-hand than Rep. Rick Berg, handing him greater buying power for his closing message. Television stations charge outside groups higher rates, so pro-Heitkamp rebuttals will cost more