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Beginning in 1783, Iceland endured an eight-month-long volcanic eruption that left a seemingly endless haze covering the landscape. The dry fog of microscopic aerosol particles, mostly sulfur oxides, caused the deaths of fully 20 percent of Iceland’s population, along with 75 percent of their livestock.

The effects of the eruption at Laki were not limited to Iceland. In the Netherlands, trees dropped their leaves in June, as if signaling a very early autumn. The number of deaths recorded in England that year was 10-20 percent above average. Reports of deaths and health problems came from as far away as Italy.

The mouthful that was Eyjafjallajökull reminded us in 2010 that volcanoes can easily bring air travel to a grinding halt, but what would happen if an eruption on the scale of Laki occurred today?

To estimate the direct impact on human health, a group of researchers first used an atmospheric aerosol model to simulate the eruption of Laki under a range of present-day atmospheric conditions. By doing so, they were able to calculate the resulting concentrations of aerosols over Iceland and continental Europe. They found that average concentrations across Europe would rise to more than double the background average over the first three months of the eruption. The highest concentrations, occurring in northern Europe, would reach more than triple background levels.

Over the course of the eruption, the models estimated that atmospheric aerosol levels would exceed the World Health Organization’s air quality standard for over a month in Europe, and almost 6 months in Iceland.

From there, the researchers used medical studies of the impact of particulate matter to estimate the number of direct fatalities. They found that, in the year of the eruption, volcanic aerosols would cause 50,000 to 230,000 deaths. While that’s certainly a terrible loss of life, it’s actually a significantly smaller percentage of the population than died during the 1783 eruption.

The authors point to several possible explanations for this. Primary among them is that this analysis does not account for agricultural losses (including climate-related losses), which were significant in several regions. It is also likely that people today are in better overall health than populations in the 1780s, meaning they would be more likely to survive such an event. In addition, there is always uncertainty when extrapolating epidemiological data to higher exposure levels.

There have been four “Laki-like” eruptions in Iceland over the past 1,150 years—some bigger, some smaller—which means this is not just an academic exercise. It’s a scenario that we could very well encounter in the near future.

It's stories like this that give us all perspective. Instead of worrying our brains out over something so insignificant as temperature changing (which it has always done throughout history), we should be doing something to prevent something cataclysmic like a major volcanic eruption, that can have far more grave consequences for the entire planet.

I think pre-emptive drilling of volcanos to reduce pressure is a good start.

It's stories like this that give us all perspective. Instead of worrying our brains out over something so insignificant as temperature changing (which it has always done throughout history), we should be doing something to prevent something cataclysmic like a major volcanic eruption, that can have far more grave consequences for the entire planet.

Yes let's ignore one cataclysmic scenario because another is more action-packed and easier to relate to.

davecadron wrote:

I think pre-emptive drilling of volcanos to reduce pressure is a good start.

Truly spoken like someone who knows nothing of the physics involved....

It's stories like this that give us all perspective. Instead of worrying our brains out over something so insignificant as temperature changing (which it has always done throughout history), we should be doing something to prevent something cataclysmic like a major volcanic eruption, that can have far more grave consequences for the entire planet.

I think pre-emptive drilling of volcanos to reduce pressure is a good start.

Or you know, we could be reasonable plan and prepare for both. I don't see how ignoring one very real problem will make another very real problem somehow less likely.

Yellowstone is at ticking bomb just waiting to blow off and wipe half of Canada and the USA away...

And the aftermath of a "Super Volcano" going off will probably also cause an ELE (Extinction Level Event) that could wipe out a lot of life on this Planet.Luckily the Earth has those Tectonic Plates which I believe move slowly so the Yellowstone area moving below causes an effect which is like trying to burn a hole on something but it moves ever slowly away from that one spot above.I will have to google this to remember the science.I suggest you google it.

Tambora, Krakatoa..... this level event will occur again, seems to be one every 200 years or so

a worst case Yellowstone level disaster can not really be prepared for (lights out for a few years, tsunamis everywhere, rain that dissolves flesh blah blah blah) unless there is sufficiently good monitoring to give at least a year or two advance warning, but fortunately this seems to be a low probability event

And consequently a large decrease in common airborne disease transmission.

Nope. Exactly the opposite. Assuming the disposable facemasks like the Japanese often wear, they end up becoming incubators for the bacteria, and spewing more of it out than normal breathing. Beware "common" knowledge and sense, it's often wrong.

Fully agree, we cannot sit idle as this known terrorist threatens the lives of innocents. Diplomatic efforts have had no effect and all gathered intelligence shows that their reckless aggression is a threat to us all.

Yellowstone is at ticking bomb just waiting to blow off and wipe half of Canada and the USA away...

And the aftermath of a "Super Volcano" going off will probably also cause an ELE (Extinction Level Event) that could wipe out a lot of life on this Planet.Luckily the Earth has those Tectonic Plates which I believe move slowly so the Yellowstone area moving below causes an effect which is like trying to burn a hole on something but it moves ever slowly away from that one spot above.I will have to google this to remember the science.I suggest you google it.

Not exactly. The plate motion is much too slow to "keep the magma occupied". If memory serves, that volcano tends to blow every 600,000 years or so. Incidentally, that's about how long it's been since the last one...

They found that, in the year of the eruption, volcanic aerosols would cause 50,000 to 230,000 deaths. While that’s certainly a terrible loss of life, it’s actually a significantly smaller percentage of the population than died during the 1783 eruption.

I take it these numbers are for all of Europe, and not just Iceland? 230,000 deaths would amount to 72% of the current Icelandic population.

Yellowstone is at ticking bomb just waiting to blow off and wipe half of Canada and the USA away...

And the aftermath of a "Super Volcano" going off will probably also cause an ELE (Extinction Level Event) that could wipe out a lot of life on this Planet.Luckily the Earth has those Tectonic Plates which I believe move slowly so the Yellowstone area moving below causes an effect which is like trying to burn a hole on something but it moves ever slowly away from that one spot above.I will have to google this to remember the science.I suggest you google it.

Not exactly. The plate motion is much too slow to "keep the magma occupied". If memory serves, that volcano tends to blow every 600,000 years or so. Incidentally, that's about how long it's been since the last one...

It's erupted ~2.1 million years ago, ~1.3, and 640,000. According to the (relatively small amount) I've read about Yellowstone, that's not enough data to develop a proper pattern. Also, vulcanologists believe we will likely have years or perhaps decades of warning signs before it goes (I'm assuming we've eliminated the probability that the current "baseline" constitutes those warning signs, but I'd have to look into it to see if that has been considered).

@b-apeI don't mean to imply that it's Old Bigger Faithful, only that the general history indicates it's not a terribly long sleeper, nor is it dead. We don't really ever expect eruptions to be truly predictable.

I think you'd get a wide range of opinions on how much warning we should expect. Also, I believe the chamber has been swelling in recent years (which probably signifies absolutely nothing).Some good info on Yellowstone's USGS page: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/about/faq/index.php

I seem to recall some speculation that it was a pretty close shave last time. Granted, we'd probably fare a little better now. Still, it would be a pretty lousy time.

It happened around the same time the human population experienced a severe bottleneck where only 2,000 humans survived. The jury is still out on if the Toba eruption was the exact cause of this. But it is probable.

i am Icelandic i have to say if Laki would erupt tomorrow it would be certainly a lot less loss of live in iceland almannavarnir ( Civil Protection in Iceland ) is realy good at what they do i don’t there have been any loss of live in resend eruptions for something interesting http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eldfellscroll down Lava-cooling operations

Yellowstone is at ticking bomb just waiting to blow off and wipe half of Canada and the USA away...

You forgot about the rest of the world too - Yellow stone blowing would be like a heavy comet slamming into the earth... welcome to a collapse of the food chain. No sun anywhere on earth for years and ash covering enough of the world to create problems, never mind what it does to the oceans....

I live and breath in one of the most active volcanic border on earth, Mount Merapi. The distance between the crater and my door just 3 hours driving away. Last year it erupt and killing 320 people and displace almost half million. I can hear thundering boom on the night when it erupted for the second time in the span of one week, yes, it was obviously not pretty and quite scary. But the thing is, volcano doesn't just blow your ass off without warning whatsoever (at least thats what I learn from 2006 and 2010 eruption). There's always sign and seismic activity. The gap between early warning and actual eruption is actually quite spare to give you time for flee. If 320 causality sounds a lot, well, most of them are poor cattleman whose doesn't want left their herd behind. So, unless, the eruption of Iceland volcano is in Krakatoa eruption like, I think theres no need to be so paranoid.