In his favor: He was overlooked last year for reviving a long-dead genre (the sword-and-sandal epic). Honoring him for the even more stylistically challenging "Black Hawk" could be a way of recognizing him for both achievements.

Working against him: "Black Hawk" didn't get a best picture nomination, and its graphic footage and documentary style might make it difficult for some voters to warm up to.

David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive"

Oscar history: Two prior nominations, for the groundbreaking "Blue Velvet" and the memorable "The Elephant Man."

In his favor: Lynch has managed to work within the system while making films that are daring both in content and style.

Working against him: While critics were over the moon for "Mulholland" (the film won numerous critics groups' awards), its roots as a failed TV pilot could work against Lynch with academy voters, as could its out-there sensibility.