Some Demographic Math for 2012 Candidates

Here are some of the demographic differences between the 2008 presidential race and the 2010 congressional elections, as compiled by the National Election Pool, a consortium of news organizations that conducts interviews with voters as they exit the polls on Election Day. These results underscore the importance of turnout, which could be even more critical to the outcome this year.

Pennsylvania:

2010 2008

White 86% 81% (McCain won 51%-48%)

Black 9% 13% (Obama won 95%-5%)

18-29 13% 18% (Obama won 65%-35%)

65 and older 23% 15% (McCain won 50%-49%)

Democrats 40% 44%

Republicans 37% 37%

Ohio:

18-29 12% 17% (Obama won 61%-36%)

Democrats 36% 39%

Republicans 37% 31%

Iowa:

18-29 10% 17% (Obama won 61%-36%)

65 and older 24% 18%

Democrats 31% 34%

Republicans 35% 33%

White evangelicals 37% 31% (McCain won 65%-33%)

Colorado:

Latino 12% 13% (Obama won 61%-38%)

65 and older 22% 13% (McCain won 53%-44%)

Florida:

White 74% 71% (McCain won 56%-42%)

Black 11% 13% (Obama won 96%-4%)

Latino 12% 14% (Obama won 57%-42%)

18-29 8% 15% (Obama won 61%-37%)

65 and older 35% 22% (McCain won 63%-46%)

Democrats 36% 37%

Republicans 36% 34%

Virginia:

18-29 10% 21% (Obama won 60%-39%)

65 and older 18% 11% (McCain won 53%-46%)

Democrats 33% 39%

Republicans 37% 33%

White Evangelicals 34% 28% (McCain won 79%-20%)

(Albert R. Hunt is Washington editor at Bloomberg News and a Bloomberg View columnist. Follow him on Twitter.)

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