• The Boss Factor. Though he’s softened his image over the years, Horn’s reputation as a conservative ideologue, a tough defender of the property rights of fellow ranchers, is not a myth. He wasn’t nicknamed “Bulldozer Bill” for nothing.

Wood’s campaign focuses on Horn’s aloofness from regular folks; his links to developers. At the same time, Horn has channeled lots of county money to his district over the years, especially to the unincorporated areas. It’s good to be boss.

• The Mayoral Milquetoast Factor. Horn dismisses Wood, who describes himself as a moderate Republican who gets along with everyone, as an ineffectively parochial mayor with no idea of why he wants to be supervisor of a sprawling district with huge expanses of unincorporated land.

• The Money Factor. As an incumbent who knows who his major donors are, Horn has always had as much cash as he needs, either through his own fundraising or PACs. In the fall, a local pol told me Wood had to raise $500,000 to compete. Despite minor labor support, Wood’s fundraising so far has been woeful.

• The O’side Factor. While most of the bookies pick Horn, there’s one way Wood could blow him away.

Over the course of 19 years in office, Horn’s negatives are baked in like gluten into bread. A crippled yellow dog could finish in the 40s against him.

Wood, on the other hand, is popular in Oceanside where he served as a cop, councilman and mayor. If he can clean up in his city, then his camp believes he might win in an upset.