Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s decision to keep the province’s schools closed until September was certainly no surprise, despite a series of previous announcements holding out hope that the current school year would resume before summer.

What was surprising, and disappointing, was that the premier offered so little reassurance to parents, and worse, sent a strong message that schooling is scary and dangerous. When Ford said of reopening schools this year, “I’m just not going to risk it,” a reasonable person would conclude that the risk is great, or at the very least substantial. And yet, the evidence we have about the risk of COVID-19 to children suggests the opposite.

Then there were the dissonant messages. Ford threw parents a bone by saying that day camps would be allowed to operate in the summer. OK, but if schools aren’t safe with professional educators in charge, why are your children safer in the hands of teenage camp counsellors? Similarly, Ford seems to think it’s too chancy to reopen the province’s licensed day care centres, except that 172 of them are open and serving the children of front-line workers and home day care has remained open throughout the lockdown. It’s fair to say that the province’s message on what is safe for children is a little inconsistent.

Keeping children safe is surely a goal shared by all, but the moment of assured, absolute safety is not in sight, and it won’t be by September, either. What’s required is a rational examination of the risk of reopening the province’s schools.

Keeping children safe is surely a goal shared by all, but the moment of assured, absolute safety is not in sight, and it won’t be by September, either

The information needed to assess that risk is accumulating and it’s mostly reassuring. British Columbia’s ministry of health says “COVID-19 has a very low infection rate in children and youth. In B.C., less than one per cent of children and youth tested have been COVID-19 positive. Most children and youth are not at high risk.” The government document adds, “Children are not the primary drivers of COVID-19 spread in schools or in community settings.” The province is providing optional, part-time classes starting in June.

An Australian study, done in a district that did not close down schools, shows that children are not the super-spreaders of the virus people had earlier assumed, and that those children who did get the disease had mild symptoms. That study is being examined by Canadian health officials.

East Ridge Community School’s sign was programmed before Ontario Premier Doug Ford said students wouldn’t be returning to school.Scott Dunn/The Sun Times/Postmedia Network

In Europe, 22 countries have reopened schools, and a video conference of education ministers was told earlier this week that there has not yet been any significant increase in infections among children.

Even the World Health Organization, oft-cited by our federal government as the source of all wisdom, noted “relatively few cases of COVID-19 reported among children” and advises “If your child isn’t displaying any symptoms such as a fever or cough it’s best to keep them in school.”

And yet, in Ontario, the government is not sharing any of this information from elsewhere and continues to say that opening the schools will be conditional on the number of positive cases identified by its inadequate and unfocused testing regime. It’s the wrong way to assess the risk to children. As B.C. notes, “most cases in children have been linked to a symptomatic family member.” In other words, what few children are getting sick are doing so because a parent or sibling is out in the community, a risk that will remain whether or not the schools are open. Certainly Ontario’s own numbers suggest the risk is small: Only 2.9 per cent of those testing positive for the virus are 19 or under.

As a pragmatic, short-term move, keeping the schools closed for the current school year was the right thing to do. There is not enough to be gained educationally to open them for just a few weeks before summer break. That’s the point Ford should have made this week, and he should also have taken the opportunity to begin the challenging task of reassuring parents.

Ontario’s economy can’t restart effectively without schools and day cares being open — and fully attended

It won’t be easy. Parents are in a fragile state. Those working full-time from home while attempting to help their children learn online can’t keep that up forever. Parents who need to work outside the home are even worse off. And yet, they are worried about their children’s health.

Ontario’s economy can’t restart effectively without schools and day cares being open — and fully attended. That’s not going to happen until parents are confident that their children can return to school with minimal risk.

That risk needs to be defined with a solid analysis of what’s happening elsewhere, not vague references to unnamed experts. Ford will get another crack at the problem at the end of June, when his government lays out its plan to reopen schools. Rational risk assessment must be at the heart of it.

Randall Denley is an Ottawa political commentator and former Ontario PC candidate. Contact him at randalldenley1@gmail.com

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