Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2015 (12 February 2015)

Ifo World Economic Climate Remains Almost Unchanged

The Ifo Index for the world economy edged upwards to 95.9 points after tumbling to 95.0 points last quarter. The improvement in the world economic climate was entirely due to slightly more positive economic expectations. Assessments of the current economic situation remained at last quarter’s level. Overall, the world economy showed little dynamism, but there are significant regional differences.

The Ifo World Economic Climate improved in North America and Europe. While the brightening was mainly due to assessments of the current economic situation in North America, the economic climate in Europe mainly improved thanks to more confident economic expectations. In all other regions the economic climate continued to deteriorate. In Asia the indicator only fell slightly below its long-term average. The decline in the Near East was more marked, with WES experts in this region primarily expressing greater pessimism about developments over the next six months. The CIS states and Latin America continue to bring up the economic rear. The economic climate indicator in both regions continued to fall even further below their respective long-term averages. Price increases in 2015 are expected to be lowest in Europe (0.8%) and highest in the CIS states (14.0%) and Latin America (10.8%). On worldwide average, expectations that the US dollar will appreciate were slightly more widespread than in the last survey.

Hans-Werner Sinn President of the Ifo Institute

World Economy (Index, 2005 = 100)

Quarter/year

I/13

II/13

III/13

IV/13

I/14

II/14

III/14

IV/14

I/15

Climate

94.1

96.8

94.1

98.6

103.2

102.3

105.0

95.0

95.9

Situation

80.4

84.1

82.2

84.1

91.6

91.6

95.3

91.6

91.6

Expectations

107.0

108.8

105.3

112.3

114.0

112.3

114.0

98.2

100.0

Climate (2005=100)

Quarter/year

I/13

II/13

III/13

IV/13

I/14

II/14

III/14

IV/14

I/15

North America

86.2

87.0

93.7

88.7

102.1

107.1

110.5

101.3

107.1

Europe

90.3

93.2

99.0

109.7

116.5

118.4

117.5

101.0

108.7

Asia

97.4

106.1

89.5

98.2

97.4

89.5

99.1

93.9

90.4

Note

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The January 2015 survey received responses from 1,071 experts in 117 countries.