PreCombine

One week to combine and as usual players moving up and down like an elevator. While it does feel good to see players I have identified as movers and shakers climbing it blows macaroni to see them move out of my range. It seems as if I am modifying my mock daily. In following, I am only going with a 3 rd round comp for now as is mostly likely to be confirmed. Again, thanks to all comments and suggestions and questions submitted by PMs.

1. DL Kawann Short: can play all positions and despite my own reservations for him as a NT, others evals give me confidence. He starts day one in place of Antonio Smith whom Texans cut saving $6m. He reworked 2012 only from what I can find out. Keep this amount in mind as I discuss after mock.

2. DT Brandon Williams will climb and may settle after combine to mid third. I say we need NT so I reach a bit. IF gone by #59 (I doubt) Sylvester Williams my choice.

4. ILB AJ Klein 345 tackles in three season. Next to Cush and behind my Dline he will be sweet. Good in coverage and upper strength to bring down TEs or RBs.

5. CB/S Terry Hawthorne may climb but for now.

6. TE Michael Williams blocking TE who can play in our strong on Oline or has soft hands. Dropped a bit but still my guy.

7. OLB Quanterus Smith should be recovered by Sept 7 I don't want to chance losing him in UDFA.

More comment: It has been reported Texans have $2.4 m carry over cap from last year + $6m A. Smith + Walter $3.5 m go get a FA receiver. If Smith will plus out to lower cap, even better. If Smith goes and Kawaan starts next to Williams, Short can be NT reserve if needed. Not sure I re-sign Mitchell in 2014. He looked better end of season but...DE? Not if he costs too much. Crick's improvement will impact that decision.

I think enough money can be attained by reworking vet contracts to allow a level two ILB and OT. If Barwin goes, the Dallas OLB is interesting at reasonable amount.

Hmmm! 2 D-linemen in first 2 rounds. While I like both of these players I'm not sure the Texans take this route, and then drafting a WR in the 3rd that's only listed at 5'10". Isn't Martin supposed to be that guy? I know Bailey has a lot of speed and good hands, but I'm just not sold on this. Like the other picks (especially Klein and Williams), just not sure if Williams will be there in the 6th for us.

Overall, I probably liked all the players you picked. Just don't think it will go down this way.

1. Short, you know I'm on board with this pick, love it. He's perfect for the 1 gap 3-4 system that Wade uses as a NT but I'm just not sure he's fast enough for DE duties.
2. B. Williams, I'm still ehhhh with this player, he shows potential but one good week of practice and a good Senior Bowl showing doesn't mean he's ready to make the huge leap from D2 to the NFL. I need to see more from him. Also there's no way we change 2/3rds of our D-line in one offseason with rookies. A new NT makes sense when he has vet. DE's beside him but 2 rookies starting on the D-line is asking for trouble, especially with Williams stepping up from D2 ball.
3. S. Bailey, he's a slot/#3 WR in the NFL and we've already got Martin in that position and although he's not great yet he shows some potential and we need a starting #2WR. One of the first 2 picks has got to be WR and someone bigger, listed at 5'10" in college probably means that he's 5'08"-5'09". We all know colleges with all their grossly overpriced intelligence still don't know how to use a measuring tape.
3b. A. Bailey, I really like the player as an OG but I think the Texans will look for an OT here that can double as an OG since we look for athleticism/quickness/agility in our O-linemen.
4. Klein, love this pick as well, sideline to sideline ILB with good coverage skills, I like his size for the position as well.
5. Hawthorne, I know CBS has him ranked in the 6th and I love the player but I still think he goes higher than this, probably in the 3rd. Walterfootball has him listed as a 2nd-4th round prospect.
6. M. Williams, another great pick that makes sense for the Texans needs.
7. Smith, I like the player but his ACL surgery was in December and I doubt him being ready by Sept. 2013. I'm thinking he'd be either on IR or PUP at the beginning of the season and wouldn't be usefull until the 2014 season.

Hmmm! 2 D-linemen in first 2 rounds. While I like both of these players I'm not sure the Texans take this route, and then drafting a WR in the 3rd that's only listed at 5'10". Isn't Martin supposed to be that guy? I know Bailey has a lot of speed and good hands, but I'm just not sold on this. Like the other picks (especially Klein and Williams), just not sure if Williams will be there in the 6th for us.

Overall, I probably liked all the players you picked. Just don't think it will go down this way.

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Should have clarified this is what I'd do not what I think Texans will do. This mock builds our Dline and safely lowers our age removing Smith and Walter. It also allows a stud WR to be signed. Martin may be the guy but has done little to instill confidence in me. I ruled Bailey out at first due to his size, but then realized he has same skill set as Patton who should go at least a round higher. I think Martin's best asset (like Holliday) was his return ability. We saw what happened with that end of season. IMO, we cannot hope our WR corps get better, we need to move.

1. Short, you know I'm on board with this pick, love it. He's perfect for the 1 gap 3-4 system that Wade uses as a NT but I'm just not sure he's fast enough for DE duties.
2. B. Williams, I'm still ehhhh with this player, he shows potential but one good week of practice and a good Senior Bowl showing doesn't mean he's ready to make the huge leap from D2 to the NFL. I need to see more from him. Also there's no way we change 2/3rds of our D-line in one offseason with rookies. A new NT makes sense when he has vet. DE's beside him but 2 rookies starting on the D-line is asking for trouble, especially with Williams stepping up from D2 ball.
3. S. Bailey, he's a slot/#3 WR in the NFL and we've already got Martin in that position and although he's not great yet he shows some potential and we need a starting #2WR. One of the first 2 picks has got to be WR and someone bigger, listed at 5'10" in college probably means that he's 5'08"-5'09". We all know colleges with all their grossly overpriced intelligence still don't know how to use a measuring tape.
3b. A. Bailey, I really like the player as an OG but I think the Texans will look for an OT here that can double as an OG since we look for athleticism/quickness/agility in our O-linemen.
4. Klein, love this pick as well, sideline to sideline ILB with good coverage skills, I like his size for the position as well.
5. Hawthorne, I know CBS has him ranked in the 6th and I love the player but I still think he goes higher than this, probably in the 3rd. Walterfootball has him listed as a 2nd-4th round prospect.
6. M. Williams, another great pick that makes sense for the Texans needs.
7. Smith, I like the player but his ACL surgery was in December and I doubt him being ready by Sept. 2013. I'm thinking he'd be either on IR or PUP at the beginning of the season and wouldn't be usefull until the 2014 season.

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1. I think SHort brings everything A Smith does to game but experience. He looks stronger than Smith. If not an immediate upgrade, at least you lose nothing. SHort 6'3 305 Smith 6'4 280.
2. Either Brandon Williams or Sylvester (my plan b) would be a big upgrade over Cody, so I have no qualms at starting two rookies on the line.

3. You evidently skipped my point of signing a vet WR2 in FA with money saved? Posey out, Walter gone, Martin and Bailey fight it out. Best scenario. I prefer taller myself but average CB is apprx 5'11". I am more interested in running routes well and going and getting ball. He has a build like an RB with strength for after the catch.

4. I don't see a OT that can move to OG I like. Your boy Wagner comes closest but imo is nowhere near guard that Alvin Bailey is. Bailey is smooth in transition from LG to RG in the game. I do not recall ever seeing a college guard do that. I think a cheap OT can be signed in FA that gives what Wagner can.

5. As stated, if Hawthorne climbs I'll adjust accordingly; let's allow him to move to 5th. I no longer use Walter for my rankings.

7th. You are probably correct on Q healing but I think he is just too good. In fact, I've seen mocks with him in 5th round.

Should have clarified this is what I'd do not what I think Texans will do. This mock builds our Dline and safely lowers our age removing Smith and Walter. It also allows a stud WR to be signed. Martin may be the guy but has done little to instill confidence in me. I ruled Bailey out at first due to his size, but then realized he has same skill set as Patton who should go at least a round higher. I think Martin's best asset (like Holliday) was his return ability. We saw what happened with that end of season. IMO, we cannot hope our WR corps get better, we need to move.

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I agree that cutting Walter and Smith to free up cap $$$$ is the way to go. I like the mock. I think there's a good chance to draft Patton early in the 3rd. I dont think he's going to run more than 4.55/4.6 at the combine.

Who would you like to see signed in FA? Give me Rames-Barden. He has the size that Gary likesin his WR's (A bigger better version of Walter.) Would you trade up to the top of the 3rd and take Patton or would you stay put and maybe draft a guy like Cobi Hamilton in the 3rd? He also has the size Gary looks for in a WR.

I agree that cutting Walter and Smith to free up cap $$$$ is the way to go. I like the mock. I think there's a good chance to draft Patton early in the 3rd. I dont think he's going to run more than 4.55/4.6 at the combine.

Who would you like to see signed in FA? Give me Rames-Barden. He has the size that Gary likesin his WR's (A bigger better version of Walter.) Would you trade up to the top of the 3rd and take Patton or would you stay put and maybe draft a guy like Cobi Hamilton in the 3rd? He also has the size Gary looks for in a WR.

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I think Patton is a second rounder. Not familiar with Barden. Like Hamilton but have to trade up in 3rd to get him. I am fan of height and speed in CBs and WRs but sometimes a player just stands out that is shorter than my preference.

Bailey: 4.49 speed 114/1627yds @ 14 per catch 25 TDs while playing same field as Tavon Austin. What would stats be without Austin's touches? Would it not be nice for Texans to have a WR that knows how to get into the end zone?

Dwayne Bowe is the best WR imo & while his history scares some, he has been clear of negativity for last two season.

Jennings, I could see going to Dolphins if Hartline leaves. If I draft a 5'10" slot in Bailey, I want a taller vet for WR2.

Mike Wallace 27 has averaged over his career 1,000 yds and 17 per catch. That is crazy good. He is not Andre Johnson but can take the defense away and go deep. He is a perfect #2 IF a team knows how to use him. Like many players he does well when contract on the line so use the contract to keep him sharp. A decent upfront bonus to set hook and realistic performance based bonuses that he can see are advantageous to him. He has to be convinced he will get the opportunities to shine. Definitely a "big play" guy. I think Steelers should have traded him.

And this is from a comment below it:
One interesting thing he said is that he doesn’t feel like there is a 1st round QB in this draft (note this doesn’t mean he thinks one won’t be drafted in 1st round) talent wise. He’s not sure about either Barkley or Geno Smith. He described it as the most confusing QB draft in years. He doesn’t think Geno Smith is the #1 overall player in the draft or even 1st round period (at this point in time,still more evaluation to go).

There were some laughs at the Chiefs expense since they pick #1 overall,need a QB, and get one of the worst QB draft classes since the Quinn/Russel draft.

Mayock also feels like there is more depth in the first 3 rounds than we’ve seen in years but doesn’t see a bunch of big time difference makers at the top. The 5th pick isn’t that much better than the 20th pick for example.

Best player on tape he’s seen so far is the Alabama Guard.

Doesn’t feel like there is a Colin Kaepernik type QB in this draft class (I agree,EJ Manuel is the closest to that but only athletically,he’s not a good QB IMO). Doesn’t think the days of QB’s like Brady or Manning are over and guys like Colin and Wilson are the future just a different style of QB play.

Feels like there is a healthy selection of QB’s in the middle rounds but nobody that really stands out. Mentioned Ryan Nassib’s intelligence being a reason his stock will probably rise close to draft time when the coaches get involved with asking him questions. Mentioned Mike Glennon as a 6’6 cannoned armed monster who might be a 15 year player.

Loves the OL selections available in the draft. Really loves the DT selections.

Intrigued by the BYU OLB/DE Ezekial Ansah, compared him to JPP (talent wise) but more raw as a player but has big upside. Will be a situational pass rusher his rookie year like Aldon Smith.Needs good coaching though.

Not very high on OLB/DE Damontre Moore, Mingo, or Werner (as high draft picks).

Really likes Dion Jordan as DE/OLB as potential monster. Isn’t to high on the overall OLB class but lots of intriguing guys. Feels like the guys at the top are overrated (in terms of where they are mocked).

Doesn’t think Manti’s whole catfish thing will kill his draft stock.Still a 1st rounder. Likes the tape of Minter he watched, better than he thought. Considers Ogeltree a freakish athlete but not sure what position he fits in at.

Said Tyrann on limited tape study (hasn’t looked at him in depth) plays better than his measurables would indicate. Has a great feel for the game and has exceptional quickness.Just a very good football player.

One week to combine and as usual players moving up and down like an elevator. While it does feel good to see players I have identified as movers and shakers climbing it blows macaroni to see them move out of my range. It seems as if I am modifying my mock daily. In following, I am only going with a 3 rd round comp for now as is mostly likely to be confirmed. Again, thanks to all comments and suggestions and questions submitted by PMs.

1. DL Kawann Short: can play all positions and despite my own reservations for him as a NT, others evals give me confidence. He starts day one in place of Antonio Smith whom Texans cut saving $6m. He reworked 2012 only from what I can find out. Keep this amount in mind as I discuss after mock.

2. DT Brandon Williams will climb and may settle after combine to mid third. I say we need NT so I reach a bit. IF gone by #59 (I doubt) Sylvester Williams my choice.

4. ILB AJ Klein 345 tackles in three season. Next to Cush and behind my Dline he will be sweet. Good in coverage and upper strength to bring down TEs or RBs.

5. CB/S Terry Hawthorne may climb but for now.

6. TE Michael Williams blocking TE who can play in our strong on Oline or has soft hands. Dropped a bit but still my guy.

7. OLB Quanterus Smith should be recovered by Sept 7 I don't want to chance losing him in UDFA.

More comment: It has been reported Texans have $2.4 m carry over cap from last year + $6m A. Smith + Walter $3.5 m go get a FA receiver. If Smith will plus out to lower cap, even better. If Smith goes and Kawaan starts next to Williams, Short can be NT reserve if needed. Not sure I re-sign Mitchell in 2014. He looked better end of season but...DE? Not if he costs too much. Crick's improvement will impact that decision.

I think enough money can be attained by reworking vet contracts to allow a level two ILB and OT. If Barwin goes, the Dallas OLB is interesting at reasonable amount.

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I like the first 3 picks a lot. I just don't know if we would start 2 rookies on the DL right off the bat. I think it would be more probable that we would move Earl Mitchell to DE on running downs. However, if we drafted Short and Williams our DL would be loaded for a VERY long time. Watt, Crick, Short, Williams, Mitchell...damn solid across the board. Bailey would be a good value pick in the 3rd. I'm not sure we draft a G that high since we drafted 2 guys who got playing time at guard last year. I also think that we really need a head banging FB (Kyle Juszczyk or Braden Wilson). Good, original mock draft.

And this is from a comment below it:
One interesting thing he said is that he doesn’t feel like there is a 1st round QB in this draft (note this doesn’t mean he thinks one won’t be drafted in 1st round) talent wise. He’s not sure about either Barkley or Geno Smith. He described it as the most confusing QB draft in years. He doesn’t think Geno Smith is the #1 overall player in the draft or even 1st round period (at this point in time,still more evaluation to go).

There were some laughs at the Chiefs expense since they pick #1 overall,need a QB, and get one of the worst QB draft classes since the Quinn/Russel draft.

Mayock also feels like there is more depth in the first 3 rounds than we’ve seen in years but doesn’t see a bunch of big time difference makers at the top. The 5th pick isn’t that much better than the 20th pick for example.

Best player on tape he’s seen so far is the Alabama Guard.

Doesn’t feel like there is a Colin Kaepernik type QB in this draft class (I agree,EJ Manuel is the closest to that but only athletically,he’s not a good QB IMO). Doesn’t think the days of QB’s like Brady or Manning are over and guys like Colin and Wilson are the future just a different style of QB play.

Feels like there is a healthy selection of QB’s in the middle rounds but nobody that really stands out. Mentioned Ryan Nassib’s intelligence being a reason his stock will probably rise close to draft time when the coaches get involved with asking him questions. Mentioned Mike Glennon as a 6’6 cannoned armed monster who might be a 15 year player.

Loves the OL selections available in the draft. Really loves the DT selections.

Intrigued by the BYU OLB/DE Ezekial Ansah, compared him to JPP (talent wise) but more raw as a player but has big upside. Will be a situational pass rusher his rookie year like Aldon Smith.Needs good coaching though.

Not very high on OLB/DE Damontre Moore, Mingo, or Werner (as high draft picks).

Really likes Dion Jordan as DE/OLB as potential monster. Isn’t to high on the overall OLB class but lots of intriguing guys. Feels like the guys at the top are overrated (in terms of where they are mocked).

Doesn’t think Manti’s whole catfish thing will kill his draft stock.Still a 1st rounder. Likes the tape of Minter he watched, better than he thought. Considers Ogeltree a freakish athlete but not sure what position he fits in at.

Said Tyrann on limited tape study (hasn’t looked at him in depth) plays better than his measurables would indicate. Has a great feel for the game and has exceptional quickness.Just a very good football player.

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I like Mayock, but... Big Deal... He called Gabbert as the first QB off the board; I said that guy isn't any good.

Mayock called Tannerhill a first rounder and Weeden an early second rounder; I disagreed with both.

WRs are scheduled to run their 40s a week from tomorrow and I'm really looking forward to getting a look-see at the leading receivers and see how they run ?
This is one position where the 40 times really mean something, this position and the CBs so its gonna be important to see which of the leading prospects have some real sprinting speed as we need a guy who can "stretch" the field opposite of AJ.

I agree that cutting Walter and Smith to free up cap $$$$ is the way to go. .

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The thing you have to consider when cutting these two is are you going to be able to replace them with equal or better players for the cap savings or less.

Walter's cap hit is 4.5m but the savings is just under 2m and dead money of just over 2.5m .... can you replace Walter for that cost ?! I dont know.

I think Walter stays even if they spend a premium draft pick on a WR.

Smith's cap number is 9m with a savings of 6m with 3m in dead money. Smith was easily the second best player on the DL last season .... Can you upgrade for 6m?

I think its more likely that they restructure Smith's deal and add a couple years at a reasonable price while converting much of this years salary to bonus money allowing them to spread it out over the duration of the contract and free up cap dollars for the short term as the cap is expected to increase significantly in 2014 and 15.

I like the first 3 picks a lot. I just don't know if we would start 2 rookies on the DL right off the bat. I think it would be more probable that we would move Earl Mitchell to DE on running downs. However, if we drafted Short and Williams our DL would be loaded for a VERY long time. Watt, Crick, Short, Williams, Mitchell...damn solid across the board. Bailey would be a good value pick in the 3rd. I'm not sure we draft a G that high since we drafted 2 guys who got playing time at guard last year. I also think that we really need a head banging FB (Kyle Juszczyk or Braden Wilson). Good, original mock draft.

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Agree on OG as I said I keep taking Bailey off the mock but keep putting him back on. Jones did much better than I expected as a RG but he is a center and I'd like to begin to prepare him for life after Myers who has a huge contract. I like Brooks at RG this season and move him to LG when Wade Smith leaves. Alvin slides right in next to Newton. i would not be surprised to see Butler re-signed if cheap.

I think its more likely that they restructure Smith's deal and add a couple years at a reasonable price while converting much of this years salary to bonus money allowing them to spread it out over the duration of the contract and free up cap dollars for the short term as the cap is expected to increase significantly in 2014 and 15.

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I agree, Smith is getting up their in years, but he had an awesome year. 2011 wasn't bad either. Cutting him just don't make sense. The smart thing to do, would be to extend his contract to about 6 years total, big bonus & expect to cut him after 3.

If he's making $6M in 2013 (I thought it was $7M) I'd pay him an $12M signing bonus with $2M salary. Take a cap hit of $6M for the next three years & we can cut him after that third season with no dead money. Antonio gets a $2M raise, we save $3M on the cap, everybody's happy.

I agree, Smith is getting up their in years, but he had an awesome year. 2011 wasn't bad either. Cutting him just don't make sense. The smart thing to do, would be to extend his contract to about 6 years total, big bonus & expect to cut him after 3.

If he's making $6M in 2013 (I thought it was $7M) I'd pay him an $12M signing bonus with $2M salary. Take a cap hit of $6M for the next three years & we can cut him after that third season with no dead money. Antonio gets a $2M raise, we save $3M on the cap, everybody's happy.

I agree, Smith is getting up their in years, but he had an awesome year. 2011 wasn't bad either. Cutting him just don't make sense. The smart thing to do, would be to extend his contract to about 6 years total, big bonus & expect to cut him after 3.

If he's making $6M in 2013 (I thought it was $7M) I'd pay him an $12M signing bonus with $2M salary. Take a cap hit of $6M for the next three years & we can cut him after that third season with no dead money. Antonio gets a $2M raise, we save $3M on the cap, everybody's happy.

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He's got a base of 9m for the coming season , 6m of which would count against the cap should he be cut.

You arent going to sign Jennings and replace Smith for 3m ... Jennings will might get a a deal in the neighborhood of what Smith makes this season from someone. I cant see him leaving money on the table unless its with the Packers and .... not That Much.

Bottom line , cutting Smith nets you 3m in cap space and 6m in dead money.

My math is wrong, but the idea was to save $3M on his cap number, cut Walter, another $2M, then find some money somewhere else...... probably cut Chris Meyers or something so we could sign Greg Jennings.

The thing you have to consider when cutting these two is are you going to be able to replace them with equal or better players for the cap savings or less.

Walter's cap hit is 4.5m but the savings is just under 2m and dead money of just over 2.5m .... can you replace Walter for that cost ?! I dont know.

I think Walter stays even if they spend a premium draft pick on a WR.

Smith's cap number is 9m with a savings of 6m with 3m in dead money. Smith was easily the second best player on the DL last season .... Can you upgrade for 6m?

I think its more likely that they restructure Smith's deal and add a couple years at a reasonable price while converting much of this years salary to bonus money allowing them to spread it out over the duration of the contract and free up cap dollars for the short term as the cap is expected to increase significantly in 2014 and 15.

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C, what I keep thinking is you don't have to replace Walter with the $2 m savings. You add that $2 m to other money and bring in a vet WR 2 that could possible be AJ's replacement in 2-3 years. I think K. Short will be as successful next to Watt as Smith or as you say reduce Smith's money and use that to strengthen roster. I refer to keep Smith with drastic reduction in his cap hit. IMO, Quin in only FA we have to re-sign.