Even though it's only aired two-episodes, I've upgraded The Followingto likely renewal. It's current ratings say certain renewal, but, again, it has only aired two episodes and is not out of the woods yet. Last week I reminded readers that Alcatrazopened well only to wind up canceled. Unlike Alcatraz, The Followingimproved in its second airing from a 3.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 3.3.

Alcatrazdropped three tenths in its second week, but to a still healthy 3.0 adults 18-49 rating. Similar to Alcatraz's second episode, the second episode of the The Followingaired against repeats on CBS. CBS is all new this Monday and has the Super Bowl the night before to pimp its lineup...

For now other than Up All Night which has been on the bench a while, and 1600 Penn , and since it's "Super" Bowl Sunday, I'm going the route of that great super hero of my youth, Super Chicken, and have moved all the other recently very low-rated NBC sitcoms to the bubble.

While I still give Go On and Whitneyan edge over Guys With Kids and The New Normal, at this point it's be ridiculous to list Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and Go On as a likely renewal. It wouldn't be ridiculous to leave Guys With Kids as a likely cancellation and just move Go On on the bubble, but with their recent ratings convergence I'm going the "cluck, cluck, cluck Super Chicken!" route.

Either way, NBC has to be especially disappointed in the ratings erosion for Go On.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

NBC should do what works reality and dramas. By the way The biggest loser is now NBC champion and take the voice place. Not bad for so old show.

I am not sure where everyone keeps getting the sentiment that NBC is so much better at launching dramas than they are comedies. Yes they have launched two seemingly viable dramas this year, plus Grimm (and Smash- jury is still out, wait for it’s premiere) last year but before that they had an absolutely horrid track record with launching new dramas (that is why Chuck continued to be renewed year after year despite very low ratings). A few years ago they were in a position like CBS is now where they would cancel comedies that rated higher than their drama average.

Holly

@Robert,

One huge problem with silly specious arguments like these is they usually neglect to consider the high probability that all of those shows would perform better if they were on CBS.

Actually, I think they’d be at least bubble based on the ratings they have.

Grimm does about the same as Blue Bloods and CSI: NY.
Parenthood does better than The Good Wife and gets more critical acclaim
Chicago Fire is doing slightly better than The Mentalist.

There’s no reason to think that they’d be automatic cancellations on CBS.

Anthony

Also forgot to mention, besides the Voice what hit reality shows has NBC launched recently? The Biggest Loser and Celebrity Apprentice launched in 2005 and AGT launched in 2006. Fashion Star isn’t really a hit, it was a modest performer at best, Minute to Win It flamed out really quickly.

Petar Ivanov

@Honey Badger

I agree. I LOVE NBC multi cam sitcoms. Friends is my favorite comedy of all time. But now CBS do these hits. And NBC only look bad with so many flop comedies. Better try with post super bowl slot to launch multi-cam hit. But know is just stupid and painful. And this year their sitcom strategy was just disaster. To air SO MANY sitcoms when you can’t even promoted half of thet number. Even CBS can’t promoted so many half hours shows. And their overall ratings are so better than NBC.

ps Question:
will CBS take #1 spot after super bowl?

And will do not harm save deception? And why is still on the air for next week?

I guess NBC really don’t have a faith in Hannibal.

ps2 Dracula cast is done. They start shooting.

Nick

@Honey Badger

Can someone explain to me what NBC is doing with Grimm?
What is NBC doing with that show, a very long hiatus that seldom turns out well.

Due to Grimm premiering early this fall, NBC had to do some sort of unusual scheduling to make the episodes last to May. It was either a hiatus, or that dumb on 1 week–off 3 weeks thing through the entire spring. The hiatus was the smarter option.

This topic has come up a lot on other sites, and Grimm fanboys refuse to listen to rational reasoning. When I implied that the reason might not be the fact that NBC is out to kill their show, I got repeatedly insulted. I was even accused of being a NBC executive!

mando

Finally, Guys with kids upgraded to be on the bubble from likely to be cancelled!! NBC owned Whitney and GWK so it wants to keep them going!!
TNN has perform poorly even if it has been against no bit hits like American Idol!

Carmen

The only comedy on the ‘bubble’ that I’m actually rooting for at this point is “The Mindy Project”.
That is a surprise to myself.
I didn’t think I’d actually like it and, if fact, bypassed it in favor of watching Apt 23 until recently.
Mindy has improved quite a bit since the premiere episode.

halloween

for CW: Cult, TCD, and 90210 will likely be canceled and at least one of (HoD,BatB,Nikita) will also be canceled unless they move shows to summer

TVMAN

I believe The Following will hold off better then Alcatraz. The Following has a better plot and acting and seemed to hook a lot of people. I also agree NBC needs to reshape their comedies. All their old, once hit comedies are dying or getting cancelled (The Office, 30 Roxk, Parks and Rec, Community). NBC has a lot of dead weight comedies in random time slots.

bruce

The predictions of the shows that will be cancelled or renewed all depends on shows that have substance and can hold the audience . if you look at shows like Nitika, Go on , The cleveland show ,new normal ,Whitney to name a few how did they even get on the air period?

Petar Ivanov

@I am not sure where everyone keeps getting the sentiment that NBC is so much better at launching dramas than they are comedies. Yes they have launched two seemingly viable dramas this year, plus Grimm (and Smash- jury is still out, wait for it’s premiere) last year but before that they had an absolutely horrid track record with launching new dramas (that is why Chuck continued to be renewed year after year despite very low ratings). A few years ago they were in a position like CBS is now where they would cancel comedies that rated higher than their drama average.

Well you have good point and i should agree. But hour long drama IF fit well will work way better than 2 comedies after the voice on tuesday. For example TNN was disaster from second or third episodes. And tuesday at 9 was BEST SPOT and really was wide open door for NBC this season. They MISS big chance there. NOT sure that CBS will give them second try next season. In my opinion big mistake. Now i see great NBC pilots. Six guns looks great to me. Charlize Theron Hatfields And McCoys one more great western. Last year history kill them all. I think this two westerns can take Monday 10 pm slot one for the fall 10-13 episodes one for the spring.

omabin

I agree with most of the moves, definitely the NBC comedies all being on the bubble thing.
Other disagreements:
– I don’t know why you insist on having H50 as likely instead of certain, even last week you told me you agreed with me
– Nikita should be likely renewal, accounting for friday factor and for syndication
– Happy Endings is a bubble show
– CSI NY is a bubble show
– Revenge would be certain for me, but i can understand the likely.
– The Neighbours is a bubble show. This one intrigues me. ABC’s comedies averages and weighted averages (using 35% as friday factor):
1. Modern Family: 4.7/4.3
2. The Middle: 2.5/2.4
3. Suburgatory: 2.4/2.1
4. The Neighbours: 2.0/1.8
5. Last Man Standing: 2.0/1.8
6. Malibu Country: 2.0/1.6
7. Happy Endings: 1.3/1.2
8. Apartment 23: 1.1/1.0

So the neighbours ties last man standing and is barely ahead of malibu, which is not famous considering that ABC is unlikely to go for another comedy hour on tuesday. It will not stay on wednesdays, so where will it go? Also, there is how to live with your parents in the spring and ABC actually has a good track record at renewing spring comedies in the last 2 years (even if they are now bombing). Unless ABC expands TGIF to 4 hours on fridays (and the mere maintenance of the current 2 hours is questionable), I don’t see where the neighbours could go. Its ratings are mediocre and airing more often out of repeats and against idol will only make it worse IMO

Kyle7

“The predictions of the shows that will be cancelled or renewed all depends on shows that have substance and can hold the audience . if you look at shows like Nitika, Go on , The cleveland show ,new normal ,Whitney to name a few how did they even get on the air period?”

All of those were shows that the network executives felt had the best shot at maintaining an audience out of the dozens of pilots that were ordered that year. Of course, the network executives are not remotely infallible, and test audiences are not always indicative of the country as a whole.

Basically, TV makes no sense.

Anthony

Well you have good point and i should agree. But hour long drama IF fit well will work way better than 2 comedies after the voice on tuesday. For example TNN was disaster from second or third episodes. And tuesday at 9 was BEST SPOT and really was wide open door for NBC this season. They MISS big chance there.

I agree it would have been better to launch a drama there this season but I understand why they did what they did. They were looking at what the will have left after this year comedy wise and knew they needed to try and launch a new hit, didn’t really work out for them but it was certainly worth the shot (as that was their best chance to do so).

Petar Ivanov

@Also forgot to mention, besides the Voice what hit reality shows has NBC launched recently? The Biggest Loser and Celebrity Apprentice launched in 2005 and AGT launched in 2006. Fashion Star isn’t really a hit, it was a modest performer at best, Minute to Win It flamed out really quickly.

Well ok but still reality is so better and cheaper on NBC than scripted shows. Even now without the voice TBL is their best show. Apprentice will be solid. AGT too. And Fashion Star on friday may turn out like other friday relity shows. Also NBC still has Eva Longoria sunday reality show. And these reality shows are 1 hout at least or 2 hour. So not only cheaper but easy to promote. Its much more expensive and harder to promote 4 half hour shows than 1 two hours show.

Tuesday: 9-10 New Sean Hayes/ New multi Cam (unless new Up All Night does well)

Thursday: 8-10 Community/Parks/Michael J Fox/Go On

Wednesday from 8-9 could run single cam comedies that skew to an audience similar to the office since they picked up a lot of pilots like that

Petar Ivanov

@Anthony
Well i will agree again. May be this was nbc best shot, but they miss. Now should think for next season not too miss twice this time. If can hit twice will be the best. But no big summer games this time. No super bowl. Not sure for AFC champ. Even Emmys are for CBS this year.

omabin

I actually think that Petar has a point concerning the promotion that half hour shows require. It is easier to promote and generate buzz for two shows than for four shows, regardless of the length of the episodes.
I think NBC made the right call launching comedies on tuesday this year, it just didnt work, but in theory it made sense. Hopefully revolution mantains its hit status after the hiatus and next year is able to be moved to help launch another show (Crossbones, I think it would be a great fit!), also leaving the two post-voice slots to launch new shows, and I actually think they need the tuesday slots for comedies again, because where else can they launch them? But I would go with multicams this time. Chicago Fire and SVU are both fine for 10pm dramas, the later just needs to be relocated to that timeslot.

Monday
The Voice
New Drama

Tuesday
The Voice
New Comedy
New Comedy
Parenthood

Wednesday
Revolution
New Drama (Crossbones)
Chicago Fire

Thursday
Community/The New Normal
Parks and Recreation
New Comedy (Michael J.Fox)
Go On

Friday
Dateline
Grimm
New Drama (Dracula)

omabin

Forgot to put SVU on thursdays at 10. Also, Whitney should be renewed for scheduling spackle