Monday, July 18, 2011

Monday - you know how it goes

I was actually at Turner Field for the game so maybe some pictures will get up here later. Or maybe not.

Some stray thoughts

Davey Johnson had an up and down day with relievers. Bringing in H-Rod? Inspired. Letting him pitch a third inning? Not so much. Bringing in Burnett to face McCann? Good decision gone bad. Letting Burnett bat for himself? Bad decision gone good. Saving Storen for the save situation that never came? Terrible.

Excited about seeing Jurrjens live - man did he not have anything at all. The Nats were a few feet from making this a homer fest early.

I can see why Roger Bernadina has his fans. He's an impressive athelete in person. Still those impressions only make looking at the numbers more important.

Gorzelanny's injury was more his fault than anyone elses. McCann gave him the baseline. You can't expect more than that.

12 comments:

Marquis pitches against a weak lineup tonight and his next two outings (before the deadline) should be against the Dodgers on Sunday and the Mets the following week. That puts him pitching to two poor offensive teams before he gets to the Mets lineup. I say his trade value peaks on the 24th of July.

Throw in Burnett for funsies. That guy should only see the mound when the Nats are down 7 runs.

Did you see that Robothal and Gammons both said that the Nats might be shopping Clip? Interesting if that's true - as much as I love our own goggled vulture, if he can bring back a Ramos-type who can play CF and leadoff, I think that's an obvious must-do.

With Wang coming back, I think Marquis is gone pretty much no matter what he does in the next two starts - it only affects the price tag. The bad news there is that the Ubaldo rumors are going to freeze the secondary pitcher market for a while until everybody figures out if Ubaldo really is available.

Hoo - I liked the move to H-Rod, but the obvious choice was let Detwiler soak up those innings. And did you read Kill-Gore today where he said Detwiler "might" be available tonight? When did he go from starter to precious flower?

Anon - "if he can bring back a Ramos-type who can play CF and leadoff, I think that's an obvious must-do." That's a lot to ask. The Ramos thing was a fluke. Best you get is Bernadina 2.0 or a flawed A-baller with promise, but maybe if that's enough.

Stupid Ubaldo - I'm glad he can't find a license plate with his name on it.

I'd flip Coffey and Desmond for Rasmus or Bourn in a heartbeat. Clippard instead of Coffey almost as quickly (good set-up men are not that difficult to find). Storen not quite so fast (good *closers* are not as fungible as sabermetricians want to think they are, as any Blue Jay fan will tell you) but I'd at least think about it.

Mind you, *why* St.L. or Hou. would give up a high-end young CF for a relief pitcher and a if-he's-lucky-he'll-learn-to-field SS is a different question.

Calindc- Burnett is awesome against lefties and bad against righties. He has use as a LOOGY. Problem is his stats get real good when he is only a LOOGY which tempts managers to pitch him against more than the occasional righthanded.

Frankly I am unsure on Morse. he is a decent firstbasemen if he can keep his numbers. His lack of walks make one suspect that he can't keep it up, but he is not the first guy in baseball history to rarely walk and be very good hitter. I am absolutely certain I am not interested in having him have any part of our outfield picture. His advanced defensive metrics are terrible in LF. Sure the sample size is small, but he would have to have a very good run during the rest of the sample to get back to average. I do not see that happening. Morse at firstbase is ok defensively. Considering his experience, there is upside on the glove at first as well. So perhaps we should trade him to some team looking for a first-basemen. Problem is I like watching him play, so it would bum me out a little.

Ramsus is terrible defensively. Statistically he is among the worst defensive CFs in the game, so it is obvious he has to be moved off CF in the next few seasons. Frankly, I would hesitate to trade Desmond for Rasmus straight up since LF is going to be occupied by Harper going forward.

Bourn is the guy I most want the NATS to trade for, but I hope they do not give up Desmond to do it. Desmond is a better offensive player than Ozzie Smith was at this point in his career, and Desmond has tons of upside since he has not had his age 26 season yet.

I'm looking at Burnett's splits and I'm not convinced at all that he's much better pitching against lefties.The batting average and OBP are easier to look at vs. righties, but everything else tells me he's getting chewed up by situational hitting. His stats with men on base are absolutely horrid.

Wally / Dezo / Marc : personally I wouldn't deal Peacock in for Rasmus but that's me. Milone.. maybe but not as the third piece. and GO NATS makes a good point. A trade for Rasmus is a trade for Rasmus the offensive player (and his longer in control contract). Bourn fits more into this team's philosophy (but unfortunately hits FA relatively soon.

GO NATS / Cal - Burnett had a fluky 2010 that skews his split numbers. Convention and his other years tell us he's a decent LOOGY type pitcher though I think he could be used to get out middling righties. Not sure what's going on this year with the situational stats. Part of it is a high BABIp but that doesn't explain it all.

GO NATS - Morse isn't going to get back the value he has yet. Not enough time, I don't think. So a trade wouldn't be advisable. I think he can be hidden in the OF but you need that ++ fielding CF to do it.

I'm not sure Rasmus HAS to be moved in the next couple years. I mean, assuming you don't want to move him right now. He's only 24. I'd expect similar defensive numbers until he hits FA. They're bad ones but if you're ok with it in 2012 - it should be the same in 2014. If you don't like it do you trade for Bourn or do you try to wait out a year and sign him in FA?

Comparing Desmond to Smith? Smith was putting up CRAZY defensive numbers by his second year. Desmond isn't nearly that good. Offensively a big part of Smith's conversion to a useable offensive player was hitting the ball on the ground and utilizing his speed. I think a young Smith is faster than Desmond (think) and more importantly people like Desmond because of his potential pop. Gonna be hard to turn him into a turf beater.