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A RELATIVELY close by-election result in NA-120 suggests that both the PML-N and PTI have much work to do ahead of the general election scheduled for next year. Of concern to both parties should be the less-than-expected turnout considering that the by-election was seen as a mini referendum on the Sharif family and the PTI’s signature anti-corruption politics. A single by-election is not a good measure of overall voter sentiment, but the NA-120 poll could prove to be a bellwether of Punjab’s voting behaviour next year. For the PML-N, there are some positives. Kulsum Nawaz’s victory in a campaign organised and run by her daughter Maryam suggests that the Sharif brand still has considerable electoral appeal in the wake of Nawaz Sharif’s ouster on corruption charges. Maryam Nawaz ran a steady campaign on her mother’s behalf and made no major missteps.

What is unclear is whether the dampened enthusiasm in NA-120 for the PML-N is because of the Sharif family’s legal woes or the absence of local issues in the campaign. Maryam Nawaz’s speeches tended to focus on perceived national achievements of the PML-N and alleged conspiracies against her family rather than on issues of service delivery and governance in NA-120. The Sharif family is also hampered by a clear split between Shahbaz Sharif and his son Hamza on one side and Ms Nawaz and her father on the other. ECP rules restrict ministers from campaigning on behalf of candidates, but the near invisibility of the Punjab government and allies of Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif for the entirety of the contest suggest all is not well at the top of the PML-N hierarchy. With a general election less than a year away, the Sharifs will need to determine relatively soon who will lead the party into the polls.

For the PTI, there are more encouraging signs. A candidate, apparently well liked in the constituency and focused on local matters in her campaign, appeared to combine well with the overall PTI message of the by-election as a referendum against corruption and continued Sharif rule in Punjab. It confirms the adage that politics is local — without a strong candidate with ties to local communities, grand themes at the national level do not necessarily have much traction with voters. But the PTI should also note that while it is capable of narrowing the gap between itself and the PML-N, the latter continues to win more often than it does. With the PML-N potentially wracked by uncertainty over who will lead the party, the 2018 election could be the PTI’s greatest opportunity yet. But the PTI may need to return to its roots as a party of genuine change rather than continue with the powerful sloganeering at the top by Imran Khan allied with so-called electables.

On DawnNews

Comments (5) Closed

Parvez Chowdhury

Sep 19, 2017 07:33am

This shows PML-N. have popular support!

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Adnan Ali

Sep 19, 2017 10:10am

The result of the election shows the sheer rejection of all political parties by silent majority. The main problem in the current political system is that people do not have the option to choose the candidate who will serve their interest. All political parties are trying to gain advantage from the current corrupt political system. Political parties give tickets to those candidates who will win the election by exploiting the system. The silent majority wants a new party with new faces which will truly serve the interest of people.

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Shalone

Sep 19, 2017 10:40am

Good analysis, but we need to talk about´t religious parties which bagged 11% of the votes. One reason for that is that such parties emerge when other leaders are considered corrupt and many think Mullahs with their sharia slogans will clean everything, if they win. The fact that Hafiz Saeed took part which India and USA consider a terrorist is also a new trend. If his party wins a few seats next year, it will be worrying and damage the image of the country further.

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Shahid

Sep 19, 2017 12:30pm

There were and still are many tasks before this not-so-clean by-election. Many more have piled up soon after the by-election. And these tasks are either by design or bad intentions. Family infighting real or made to believe is insignificant and non-issue worthy of ignoring vis-à-vis the delicate situation Pakistan is in, both at home and abroad. Immediate task(s) concern implementation of law and order where beside, and due to NAB's inaction towards ensuring availability of all named individuals to face its accountability court for the ongoing proceedings. Real test is for the State how it manages its sovereign responsibility for upholding justice in this matter b/c if it is not brought to a meaningful conclusion, many other similar cases cannot start. It is truly testing time for all while the whole world is watching. Governance is credible only when it asserts rule of law; if there is one. And that was, is and will remain the major task to faithfully perform.