Brian Wesbury ’89 can’t forget
the first time a radio reporter asked his opinion on an economic
matter.

The durable goods report had just come out,
and CBS Radio News had called the economics department at
Chicago’s Harris Bank for a quote on the numbers. The
call was routed to Wesbury, then a 25-year-old junior economist
who’d had little experience with the media. But the
interview ended abruptly with Wesbury’s response to
the first question. “Uh … uh …. I can’t
do this!” Wesbury stammered as he slammed down the receiver.

Wesbury has more than redeemed himself in
the 18 years since then, as far as the Journal and many other
top media outlets are concerned. Now jocular and relaxed with
the press, Wesbury dispenses his wisdom daily to reporters
hungry for his unnervingly accurate take on which way the
economic winds will blow.

His opinions appear often on the Journal’s
op-ed page, as well as in publications such as Forbes, U.S.
News and World Report, and Investors Business Daily. His stage
fright long since conquered, Wesbury is a regular guest on
CNBC and CNN-fn, and comments weekly on economic issues for
WPTT radio in Pittsburgh. His monthly column, “The Outlook,”
is published in The American Spectator magazine, and his book,
The New Era of Wealth, was published in 1999 by McGraw-Hill.

Now chief economist at the Chicago investment
bank of Griffin, Kubik, Stephens & Thompson, Wesbury acknowledges
he has developed a “gift for a good quote.” But
Wesbury clearly brings something else to the table, and that
is his uncanny knack for predicting the future.

Wesbury was one of only nine economists on
the Journal’s 52-member forecasting panel to foresee
last year’s economic slowdown. Among those nine bears,
his predictions most closely mirrored the official numbers
reported by the Department of Commerce. He was spot-on in
his forecast of meager economic growth in the first half of
2001, followed by a contraction in the third quarter. He based
this prediction, as he does every forecast, on some sophisticated
number-crunching, as well as an astute reading of history
and politics. He believes the Fed raised interest rates too
sharply in 1999 and 2000, and he also determined that tax
rates had gotten to be “too disproportionate”
a share of the GDP. “In the past, this has led to a
downturn in the economy,” he says.

It’s not the first time Wesbury has
gained renown for his accuracy. He’s been named the
most accurate forecaster by both the Bond Buyer and Bloomberg
Interest Rate surveys. Earlier this year, Forbes touted Wesbury
as one of the magazine’s “two favorite working
economists.”

“What Brian actually does is ask the
critical questions that few formal economists bother to ask
anymore,” publisher Rich Karlgaard says. He notes approvingly
that Wesbury avoids abstractions such as “consumer confidence”
and focuses instead whether America’s suppliers are
being helped or hindered in their efforts to innovate and
produce.

The 43-year-old Wesbury, who lives in Downers
Grove, Ill., with his wife, Brenda, and infant son Kyle, says
Kellogg’s broad curriculum and challenging coursework
set the stage for his success. “I feel so well-rounded,”
he says. “I know that without that education, my career
would not have been the same.”
As for the view from the top of the Journal list? Wesbury
is confident in this prediction: “I won’t stay
there. There’s only one place to go, and that’s
down.” But that’s OK, he adds.

“It’s not so much about winning,
but being close to the top,” Wesbury says. “It
confirms that somehow, the view I’ve taken of the world
is pretty accurate at this juncture.”