Monday, March 14, 2016

On Sunday, millions of Brazilians took to the streets to call for the ouster of President Dilma Rousseff, who is thought to have cooked the fiscal books in 2014.

She’s not yet implicated (directly anyway) in the long-running Carwash probe, but some think that may change soon as the investigation seems to get closer and closer to her officer with each passing week.

But it’s not just corruption that Brazilians are fed up with.

The economy is in shambles and a PT party proposal to use more than 30% of the country’s FX reserves to fund infrastructure projects risks sparking capital flight and jeopardizes debt service capacity, Barclays wrote, in a note out today.

On Monday we also got a look at the monthly real GDP tracker and wouldn’t you know it, IBC-Br missed by a mile, printing at -0.61 M/M and -8.1% Y/Y - the latter was the worst reading on record. As we first noted last summer, Brazil is stuck in stagflation. Not only is output plunging, but inflation is running in the double-digits.

Nearly every other economic indicator is in the doldrums as well, but if you want one chart which shows why Brazilians are really mad, look no further than the following, which vividly depicts the country’s stagflationary nightmare:

We’ll leave you with the following passage from Goldman’s Alberto Ramos who always does a nice job of cataloguing everything that’s wrong in the country:

We expect the economy to continue to face strong headwinds from exigent financing conditions, high inflation, significant labor market deterioration, higher levels of inventory in key industrial sectors, higher public tariffs and local and federal taxes, high levels of household indebtedness, weak external demand, soft commodity prices, political uncertainty and depressed consumer and business confidence.

BEIJING (Sputnik) — A report by the ABC broadcaster on Tuesday cited General Lori Robinson from the US Pacific Air Forces as saying talks were underway with Australia to regularly rotate B-1 heavy bombers in the country.

Gen. Robinson added that the US Air Force would continue to fly over disputed areas in the South China Sea.

After hearing the mean-spirited taunts, the Newton North students fell silent with looks of surprise and anger overtaking their faces.

“I found it chilling,” Newton superintendent David Fleishman, who arrived at the game, which was held at Newton South High School, about 20 minutes late.

Fleishman said he was immediately approached by a visibly disturbed parent who told him she was shaken.

“In my mind, this is incredibly upsetting and troubling, and they have a lot of work to do at Catholic Memorial,” he said.

Fleishman contacted the Anti-Defemation League about the issue, and told the Globe that Newton students would discuss the incident at school Monday. In addition, Newton officials said they will also discuss Newton fans’ use of jokes referencing male anatomy, which Fleishman admitted can also be offensive.

If worst comes to worst, Russia’s latest hypersonic missiles could make the America’s newest aircraft carrier design, the Ford class, a ‘floating graveyard’, says journalist and military analyst Sergei Ischenko.

Later this year, the US Navy plans to accept the USS Gerald R. Ford, the most expensive and advanced warship ever put to sea, into service. Eventually, Ford-class carriers may replace all ten of the Navy’s Nimitz-class carriers, starting with the USS Enterprise.

Analyzing the new vessel and its weak points, Sergei Ischenko, a military analyst and columnist for independent Russian newspaper Svobodnaya Pressa, suggests that unfortunately for the US Navy, in the event of a conflict with Russia, America’s latest and greatest carrier would effectively be turned into a giant floating graveyard. And those aren’t his words, but those of American analysts themselves.

“The Navy’s gigantic new aircraft carrier, capable of accommodating up to 90 aircraft and aerial vehicles (including drones and the F-35 fifth generation attack aircraft), has already received a series of enthusiastic epithets about its high level of automation, and its record $15 billion cost,” Ischenko recalls.At the same time however, “a series of respected American military experts have already suggested that it may be possible that what the aircraft carrier really is a super-expensive, ‘super-graveyard’ for its crew of thousands. The huge ship, aspiring to become a symbol of America’s power on the oceans, may become obsolete before it is even completed.”

Last month, Harry J. Kazianis, a military analyst and senior contributor for the Washington-based foreign affairs magazine The National Interest, said as much in an article.

“Countries with the technological means, specifically great powers like China and Russia –nations the Pentagon considers as the main big challenge for the US military – are developing cruise missile platforms that can strike from long-range and en masse from multiple domains,” Kazianis noted. “Such weapons…if accurate, using highly trained crews combined with the means to find their target on the vast open oceans –could turn America’s supercarriers into multi-billion dollar graveyards for thousands of US sailors.”

“And Harry Kazianis is not alone in offering such an opinion,” Ischenko recalled. Also last month, in an op-ed for Politico, retired US Navy Captain Jerry Hendrix, a defense analyst for the Washington-based Center for a New American Security, suggested that the golden age for US carriers ended the moment when China and Russia began introducing long-range coastal missile systems into the ranks of their militaries.

“Hendix,” Ischenko writes, “is convinced that in case of war, the capabilities of Russian and Chinese anti-ship cruise, ballistic missile and air defense forces would force US Navy carrier strike groups (CSGs) to stay hundreds or even thousands of kilometers from the enemy’s coast, which would make strikes from their carrier-based aircraft against ground targets ineffective. Additionally, any CSG movement is easily observable from space, enabling the US’s opponents to position their countermeasures ahead of time.””The arithmetic here is simple: the main strike capability of the contemporary US Navy consists of its air wing, consisting of 30-40 F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. The combat radius of these aircraft is about 800 km. For the Super Hornets to able to even threaten to conduct air strikes against targets on the shores of enemy territory, they would have to take off 400 nautical miles from their targets.”

“However,” the analyst continues, “if the US Navy CSG were to attempt to make it to say, the Russian shore, it’s unlikely that it would reach its destination, because, far from its target, it would be attacked by the Tu-22M3, a supersonic long-range bomber equipped with the Kh-22 anti-ship missile, designed back in the Soviet period specifically for use against aircraft carriers.”

Tupolev Tu-22M3 strategic bombers flying past the Kremlin during a rehearsal for the parade marking the 70th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War, May 2015.

“Each Tu-22M3 is capable of carrying up to three such missiles. Moreover, the missiles can be fitted with a nuclear warhead.” The Kh-22’s latest modification, the Kh-22M/MA, has an operation range of 600 km (320 nautical miles), delivered at Mach 5, and carrying a payload of 1,000 kg of RDX. “The range of the aircraft itself is practically unlimited, since it is possible to refuel from the air,” Ischenko notes.

A Raduga Kh-22 anti-ship missile under the wing of a Tupolev Tu-22M supersonic long-range strategic and maritime strike bomber.

“And if by some miracle the US CSG were to evade the air-based missile strike, closer to our shore the ships would come up on the firing range of the K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense missile system, equipped with the P-800 Oniks supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles [known in export markets as the Yakhont, with an operational range of 600 km [the export variant’s range is 120-300 km, depending on altitude].”

“Right now, the Bastion-P is deployed near Sevastopol, Anapa, the Kola Peninsula, Novaya Zemlya and the Kurile Islands. There is reason to believe that in the near future these systems will deploy for combat duty near Kaliningrad and in Kamchatka. Additionally, plans exist to deploy the first ‘Bastion-S’, a silo-based system with up to 36 anti-ship cruise missiles, in Crimea by 2020.”

Among the Oniks’s key features is its low profile flight (sea-skimming) capability, which allows it to defeat electronic countermeasures and fly under enemy fire. Moreover, Ischenko recalls that the missiles’ ‘swarming pattern’ of attack means that even if part of them were damaged or destroyed, “the remainder are guaranteed” to find their targets.

“Then there are the Russian multipurpose nuclear submarines, which can also find themselves in the CSG’s way. For example, the K-560 Severodvinsk, the lead unit of the Project 885 ‘Yasen’, is capable of carrying up to 32 Oniks missiles.”

“Then of course, there are the small missile ships, which recently became famous all around the world, with their Kalibr cruise missile,” which feature the 3M54K and 3M54T anti-ship variants. Finally, “there are the Varszawianka (Kilo-class) submarines, equipped with the same weapon, and 3K60 ‘Ball’ coastal defense system, featuring the Kh-35U missile,” whose maximum range has recently been upped to 300 km.

“But even all this,” Ischenko suggests, “will seem like a baby’s toy, if Russia will be able to start mass production of the 3M22 ‘Zircon’ hypersonic missile. By all appearances, several such missiles have already been tested and put into service. A few days ago it was announced that the the Admiral Nakhimov heavy nuclear missile cruiser, presently undergoing modernization at the Severodvinsk port, would be equipped with such missiles by 2018.”

“The range of the Zircon remains a secret, with some experts saying that it at least matches the Oniks. But the flight speed of the new weapon is several times faster, which dramatically reduces the time necessary to pass through any naval-based air defense systems and, consequently, effectively makes attempts to defend aircraft carriers and their support ships pointless.”

“Moreover, because the Admiral Nakhimov’s rearmament implies that the launchers onboard will be capable, depending on the mission, of launching the Oniks, the Zircon or the Kalibr, it’s logical to assume that the weight and size characteristics of the missiles will be maximally universalized.” If this is the case, the analyst notes, “it would mean that the latest Russian hypersonic cruise missile could also equip the ‘Bastion’ shore-based systems, thus precluding the possibility of carrier groups approaching [Russia’s shore] even for a brief period.”

Ultimately, Ischenko notes, “it is logical to assume that these facts are not a secret to American experts, whose writings have almost ‘buried’ the multi-billion dollar Gerald R Ford directly in its shipyard. What’s their solution?”Kazianis, in his piece for The National Interest, “is convinced that there is an urgent need to develop long-range unmanned drones, capable of launching from the deck of aircraft carriers. Apparently, their range should be sufficient to ensure that they can fire without entering the range of Russian coastal defense systems.”

“I am afraid that if we don’t give America’s most expensive weapon of war the platforms it needs to strike from range, the aircraft carrier could join the battleships of yesteryear as floating museums sooner rather than later,” Kazianis noted.

“However, as the author himself complains, the Pentagon, for now, has no intention to create such UAVs. Secondly, who was it that promised Kazianis that Russia would not simultaneously take up efforts to increase the flight range of its anti-ship missiles?” Ischenko bluntly concludes.

Jorge Bergoglio became the 266th pope on March 13, 2013. With the utterance of his unforgettable first words as pontiff — “buona sera” — as he waved from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica, Francis instantly became a star. His style, language and leadership have rebranded Catholicism, plagued by scandals, starting from the Vatican itself. Three years later, he can still walk St. Peter’s Square on Wednesdays amidst a cheering crowd, tweet to now over 27 million followers and enjoy large media attention. Yet the Curia grumbles against what is perceived from the inside as an authoritarian and unpredictable boss. A large array of conservative bishops, notably from Africa and Eastern Europe, fear that Francis’ openness and pastoral outreach towards those out of the Catholic Church may lead him to bypass its doctrine. And some priests feel he has too often been harsh on them and on the church as a whole […] Those who fear Francis has already gone too far prefer African Cardinal Robert Sarah, a 70-year-old native of Guinea, while others may bet on the Holy See’s secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Peter the Roman). (READ MORE)

SPECIAL NOTE FROM TOM HORN:

Will Pope Francis be the one to play the role of the Last Roman Emperor, a subject Cris Putnam and I are investigating for our next book? Or will it be another pontiff? We have reasons to believe Pope Francis may retire or be taken out of the way (more on that in the new book). But was there something strange about the conclave from which Pope Francis emerged to the pontificate? Something suggesting he was not actually “canonically elected?” Even some Catholics think “illegitimate” activity may have gone on behind closed doors during the last conclave [i] and that, for reasons we do not yet understand, Francis was put in as a temporary “placeholder” until the real Pope #112 (Petrus Romanus) could be installed. This too might echo the choice of St. Francis of Assisi as a namesake, as the ancient friar did predict, “…a man, not canonically elected, will be raised to the pontificate.” The mysterious reasons surrounding a “placeholder” pope—a false pope—is largely unknown to the public, but was foresaw by such mystics as Father Herman Bernard Kramer in his work, “The Book of Destiny.” During an unusual interpretation he made of the twelfth chapter of the Book of Revelation concerning “the great wonder” mentioned in verse one, Father Kramer wrote:

The ‘sign’ in heaven is that of a woman with child crying out in her travail and anguish of delivery. In that travail, she gives birth to some definite ‘person’ who is to RULE the Church with a rod of iron (verse 5). It then points to a conflict waged within the Church to elect one who was to ‘rule all nations’ in the manner clearly stated. In accord with the text this is unmistakably a PAPAL ELECTION, for only Christ and his Vicar have the divine right to rule ALL NATIONS… But at this time the great powers may take a menacing attitude to hinder the election of the logical and expected candidate by threats of a general apostasy, assassination or imprisonment of this candidate if elected.” [ii]

COMING SOON FROM TOM HORN & CRIS PUTNAM — THE FINAL INSTALLMENT IN THEIR 4-YEAR INVESTIGATION!!

Although we disagree with Kramer’s interpretation of the book of Revelation, his fear that “great powers may take a menacing attitude to hinder the election of the logical and expected candidate” echoes the sentiment of priests mentioned elsewhere in our book Petrus Romanus, who see a crises for the Church coming, and the Final Roman Emperor (Antichrist) rising as a result. As we move through 2016, Pope Francis is publicly looking for a global political authority (such as the UN) to come alongside him to implement his religious and social agenda, President Obama has just set his eyes on becoming the UN Secretary General following the US Presidential election, [iii] and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu is very concerned about the ramifications of both. Will the Pope or ex-president step forward to fulfill the Cumaean Sibyl’s prophecy… or are there others waiting in the wings? Either way, I predict that an ISIS WMD and a call by Rome to sanction war will soon result in both Muslims and Romans engaging in their own apocalyptica.

Oh… and as you will learn more extensively later in the new book from me and putnam (coming in May and the FINAL installment on the subject with our biggest prediction yet), nearly a decade ago a major Islamic website set the date on which this war and it’s Mahdi would unfold: “Based on our numerical analysis of the Quran and Hadith,” they concluded, “the official beginning of the End of Time and the coming of the Imam Mahdi will most likely be in… 2016.” [iv]

In a Chinese television program aired earlier this month a local defense expert hailed the unique characteristics of the Russian ICBM and the fear it had instilled in the hearts of foreign militaries, Rossiiskaya Gazeta wrote.

“Russia’s new RS-26 missile travels along a continuously changing trajectory and as such it has no analogues in the world,” the expert said.

When asked about the US missile defense system, he said that it was “absolutely useless” against the RS-26.

“This one is even better than the famous Topol-M missile… Its warheads are supersonic and change their course all the time. Some of them will penetrate any existing missile defense shield and will hit their target,” the expert added.

When asked whether the new Russian ICBM had caught the Americans flatfooted, the expert said that not only the Americans were clueless but that the Chinese too now had something to worry about.

What makes the RS-26 so special is that even though it weighs just 80 tons, compared to the 120-ton heft of its RS-24 Yars predecessor, the Rubezh packs a frightening 1,2 megatons into its four 300 kiloton warheads.

With a potential range of 11,000 kilometers the RS-26 can hit targets all across the United States.

Moreover, its booster stage is down to under five minutes, which means that NATO radars in Europe will have no time to register the launch.

Adding to NATO air defenders’ worries, during the descending section of its trajectory, with only a few hundred kilometers left to the target, the missile’s warheads suddenly take a dive, lose altitude, and continue the approach as a cruise missile.

These new Russian ICBM warheads were developed in response to America’s plans to deploy a global missile defense system along Russia's borders.

For the first time ever, total credit card debt in the United States is approaching a trillion dollars. Instead of learning painful lessons from the last recession, Americans continue to make the same horrendous financial mistakes over and over again. In fact, U.S. consumers accumulated more new credit card debt during the 4th quarter of 2015 than they did during the years of 2009, 2010 and 2011 combined. That is absolutely insanity, because other than payday loans, credit card debt is just about the worst kind of debt that consumers could possibly go into. Extremely high rates of interest, combined with severe penalties and fees, can choke the financial life out of almost any family in no time at all.

These days, most Americans use credit cards for various purposes, and they can be very convenient.

And if you pay them off every single month, they don’t become a problem.

Unfortunately, a lot of people are not doing this. According to CNBC, total U.S. credit card debt rose by an astounding 71 billion dollars last year alone…

Last year, credit card debt in the U.S. surged by approximately $71 billion to $917.7 billion, according to a new study from CardHub.com. The research also found that most of the debt accrued in 2015 came in the fourth quarter, when Americans tacked on more than $52 billion.

“With 7 of the past 10 quarters reflecting year-over-year regression in consumer performance, evidence is mounting to support the notion that credit card users are reverting to pre-downturn bad habits,” CardHub CEO Odysseas Papadimitriou said in a statement.

And as noted above, things were particularly gruesome during the 4th quarter of last year.

According to Alternet, Americans added more credit card debt during those three months than during the entire years of 2009, 2010 and 2011 combined…

Not since we headed into the Great Recession of 2008 have we been quite so loosey-goosey with our credit cards, racking up debt with stunning speed. Of our 4Q totals, CardHub notes, “during this one quarter, we added more debt than in 2009, 2010 and 2011 put together.” That brings dollars owed to credit card companies by each debt-saddled American family up to $7,879, the highest since the Great Recession.

I can’t even begin to describe how unwise this is. When I was in my twenties, I made the same mistakes that so many other Americans are making right now. I very foolishly racked up large balances on my credit cards, and it took years of extremely painful payments to fix those mistakes.

In America today, 37 percent of all households maintain credit card balances from month to month, and the average level of credit card debt for those households is $15,700. The following comes from CBS Minnesota…

According to NerdWallet, 37 percent of American households have credit card debt, which is defined as not paying off the full balance every month. Using data from the Federal Reserve of New York, U.S. Census and its own poll, NerdWallet found the average balance for those in credit debt is $15,700.

What most people don’t realize is that by letting balances run from month to month, you can end up paying just about as much in interest as you did for the original purchases.

For the sake of simplicity in calculating the cost of the average credit card debt, let’s assume an APR of 16% and a fixed payment. We’ll also assume a minimum payment of 2% of the principal balance of $15,762, the average as of the end of 2015, or $315.

Based on those terms — and assuming you don’t add any more to your credit card balance — it would take 84 months, or seven years, to pay off the balance in full. During that time, you’ll pay $10,402 in interest — about two-thirds of the original balance — for a total of $26,164. This averages out to about $124 in interest per month.

The scenario above assumes that all payments are made on time. But a single late payment can trigger higher interest rates, penalties and fees that can be absolutely suffocating.

In fact, some people end up paying back three, four or five times as much as they originally borrowed to the credit card companies.

If you use credit cards for convenience or to buy things online or to automatically pay bills, that is fine. Just don’t let balances accumulate. As you can see, that can be financial suicide.

And as we head into a new global recession, you definitely don’t want to be saddled with high levels of debt. All of us have little luxuries that we can cut back on, and now is not the time to be living on the financial edge.

Just look at some of the troubling signs that we have seen in the news in recent days…

-The U.S. oil and rig count just dropped to the lowest level ever recorded

-One Houston CEO told employees that he was laying off that we have entered a “depression”

-It is being reported that 35 percent of all oil and gas companies around the world are at risk of falling into bankruptcy