Abstract

The focus of this paper is on substantive aspects of fertility and mortality, and their implications for future population trends in North Africa. There is convincing evidence that high fertility has been maintained for a considerable time and that a decline has begun in these countries. This decline is not uniformly the same in each country. Most of it is in urban areas, while fertility in rural areas is still high. Also, because of differences in desired fertility, use of contraceptive methods, and women's education, the potential for further decline in fertility varies considerably by place of residence. Results from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys show enormous fertility differences by level of women's education. Also, they show large fertility declines in response to a few years increase in women's education. On the other hand, mortality decline is progressing rapidly. Life expectancy at birth has increased for males and females. There are substantial mortality differences between countries. Mortality data by place of residence in North Africa is not available except for Egypt, where life expectancy at birth has increased for rural males and females more than for their urban counterparts. These patterns of fertility and mortality will shape the future population trends for several years. In the first place, a young age structure resulting primarily from past high fertility levels will lead to high population growth momentum such that a decline in fertility will not have its full impact for quite a long period. The greatest demographic challenge for governments in North Africa is in rural areas, where fertility is the highest and women's education is the lowest. On the other hand, there are considerable uncertainties about future demographic trends in these countries primarily because of social development and political instability. With differences in development and varying political support to national population programs and activities, future population trends in these countries are likely to take a divergent course.