(updated 10-25-07) I have created a brief presentation on raising money from Venture Capital firms and from Angel groups. The intended audience is technology- based product companies, both hardware and software, raising their first professional money. This version has several edits, improvements.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Taken together, the Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes described here should produce clarion calls to action. They each provide antidotes to common workshop problems, for example, brainstorming meetings that feel good, but that lack rigor, and consequently fail to produce action and results. Or even worse, BOPSAT: a Bunch Of People Sitting Around Talking.

Instead, Mess Map and Resolution Mapping workshops are powerful tools for stakeholders to identify the complex patterns that are an essential aspect of Social Messes. Action, and not analysis per se, is the key to resolving Wicked Problems.

As Rittel and Webber noted in their defining 1973 article, Wicked Problems are never solved, but “re-solved” for a time (Figure 17). Action plan implementation is an ongoing process. In time, the state of the systems that comprise a given Social Mess will change, in part because of the actions taken by stakeholders and in part because everything changes. Change is integral for interconnected complex systems that comprise Social Messes. To paraphrase Heraclitus, it is impossible to step into the same Mess twice.

In addition to integral change and successes resolving Wicked Problems, stakeholders change. Co-workers come and go. Funding appears and disappears. New products supplant the old. Political, social, cultural, technological, and economic contexts all change as well, usually quite independently of actions to address a given Wicked Problem.

Workshop outputs such Common and Unique Event lists may be used as the foundation of a war room or Event Dashboard for tracking the evolution of a given set of systems and problems against the desired Endstate.

As a result of change, organizations concerned with a given Social Mess must re-learn, re-evaluate, and re-resolve the Wicked Problem at hand (Figure 17). The systems that comprise a Wicked Problem have evolved; the stakeholders have evolved.

If the rate of change is modest or the time period short, the previous analyses, conclusions, and key action items may just need a tune-up, so to speak. If change has been fast or there have been perceived inflection points or discontinuities, then stakeholders may benefit from a much more substantial re-analysis. Regardless, stakeholders need to keep reminding themselves that individual and organizational learning requires a conscious and sustained effort.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Resolution Mapping does not entail predictions or forecasts. This process also abandons the idea of a “most likely” future. Instead, Resolution Mapping empowers participants with diverse points of view, knowledge, and experience to explore alternative futures, choose a desired outcome, and prioritize the Events necessary for resolving the Wicked Problem under consideration.

Monday, October 22, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Resolution Mapping™ is an ideal process for assembling, evaluating, and structuring complex information regarding a Wicked Problem. More importantly, the various outputs lead directly to decisions regarding action items and responsibilities for those actions.

When a Mess Mapping project precedes Resolution Mapping, the Mess Map process and diagram provide significant input for Resolution Mapping while creating efficiencies. For example, much of the data collection, interviewing, and data structuring will have already occurred.

However, if the Resolution Mapping process has not been preceded by a Mess Mapping project, then the first step is to conduct interviews with decision makers and influencers. We try to interview all those who are likely to attend the subsequent Resolution Mapping workshop. We also may interview industry and government experts along with other constituency stakeholders. Our interviews are usually augmented with market, scientific, and policy information. However, we do not conduct primary research.

The sponsoring organization(s) typically identifies an engagement manager who is the point of contact for the facilitators and who aggregates feedback from participating organizations. The facilitators review and synthesize the interviews, integrate external data, and then create draft Endstates and Events. The facilitators and sponsor representatives review all the workshop materials and agenda.

After the workshop, sponsors may follow up the Resolution Mapping workshop with one or more optional post-meeting tasks. For example, facilitators may create a presentation that can be shared with others documenting the process, participants, and meeting outcomes. Other post-meeting steps include working with stakeholders to further prioritize and implement key action steps.

Some clients have created a “war room” using key Events related to the desired Endstate. New Events may be created and posted on walls or other displays together with the Events from the Workshop. The War Room provides a summary of the desired outcome and a dashboard for monitoring the internal and external contexts.

The War Room presentation can be reviewed with key stakeholders inside and outside the organization as an efficient way to document the meeting outcomes, to reinforce the objectives, and to maintain focus on the key Events.

In some circumstances, it is beneficial to repeat the Workshop with essentially the same materials for different audiences. This may be especially useful when different geographic regions are affected by the same Wicked Problem. Getting the local view may be an important step in understanding regional similarities and differences in how the Social Mess is viewed, in desirable outcomes, and in constraints on actions.

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A typical workshop usually lasting 2 and sometimes 3 days is comprised of several tasks and outputs:

1.Conventional
Wisdom Voting and Scenario: participants in teams categorize the Events
into “highly likely,” “highly unlikely”, and “uncertain. Facilitators use event voting to create a
Conventional Wisdom scenario that reflects the overall thinking of workshop
participants at the outset of the workshop.

2.Endstate
Defense: Each team analyzes and then defends their assigned Endstate in a
presentation to the whole group. The main purpose of the team presentation is
to present a narrative describing how the world evolved, including the key
actors, drivers, motives, and significant milestones along the way.

3.Endstate
Systems: Workshop participants develop a new model that synthesizes the
Endstates into a set of relationships indicating how the Endstates might evolve
and interact with one another.

4.Policies
and Specific Actions: Participants identify and prioritize key policy
initiatives and Events, including responsibilities for influence or
implementation.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Endstates are useful tools for considering how to resolve a given Wicked Problem. They do not represent forecasts or the facilitator’s opinions regarding the most likely or most desirable outcomes.

Workshop participants commonly say that the Endstate they think is really most desirable is a combination of elements from 2 or more Endstates. Consequently, we ask participants to consider how Endstates may be related to each other, that is, to create an Endstate System.

Each of the four diagrams in the graphic below are abstract portrayals of ideas that have emerged from this workshop exercise. Each individual shape represents a different Endstate.

(B)Alternatively, workshop participants might
conclude that either it will be one or another Endstate and that the others
will not matter.

(C)Yet another possibility is that one of the
Endstates is really key and it will dominate the others.

(D)Lastly, in this small set of examples, the
relationships may change over time. Some
Endstates will matter sooner while others will matter later. The bottom right example suggests that down
the road there will be a major choice or fork in the road.

Endstate systems provide another, more holistic way to take
into account the beliefs of workshop participants. In turn, this analysis can be the input to a
set of workshop tasks concerning key events, actions, and responsibilities.

Wednesday, October 17, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Sometimes several Events are chosen by a team defending one Endstate that are ignored in other scenarios. We call these Unique Events. For example, in a US and Global Climate Change workshop, a Unique Event might be that Cold Fusion Water Heaters are Commercially Available in 2013. In a U.S. Healthcare workshop, a Unique event might be that Total Healthcare Expenditures as a percentage of GDP are constant starting in 2010.

Since only one future depends on their occurrence, adopting a strategy based substantially on Unique events may entail higher overall risk since fewer actors care about these events. This is not to say that adopting such a strategy is necessarily a bad idea. In many business situations, for example, higher risk may bring with it higher rewards.

However, task forces, working groups, committees and others focused on resolving a given Wicked Problem may find that alternative strategies for resolving a given Social Mess are more attainable because they are based on a greater preponderance of Common Events rather than Unique Events.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Some Events are considered by Resolution Mapping workshop participants to be important to multiple scenarios. These Common Events are noteworthy because multiple stakeholders have an interest in the outcome.

For example, in a project to address America and Global Climate Change, a Common event might be that the Congress mandates average 50 MPG for cars produced beginning 2030. In scenarios addressing healthcare in America, a Common event might be that by 2011, 20 states mandate health insurance for all.

Various actors may work toward making or influencing the Event to happen; others may work toward preventing its occurrence, as in the case of a Must Not Happen event. Consequently, Common Events and the issues they represent will usually receive a lot more attention because more actors have a stake in the outcome.

Monday, October 15, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

After identifying those events that Must [or Must Not] happen, each team then creates a narrative: a story that describes
how the world got to be “this way” rather than some other way. They
then defend their scenario in a short presentation to all the
participants.

We can’t emphasize too strongly that a Scenario is not a recitation of
key events: this happened, then that happened. Rather, it’s the story
that counts:

Who were the key actors?

What were their motivations?

What did they do?

What didn’t they do?

What was the timing of their actions?

How did the actions of major actors interact with the
actions of other actors?

Friday, October 12, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Each team of 4 to 7 people works backwards: assuming that assigned their Endstate has already happened, they determine what it took to get there.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

Events are specific observable occurrences that could happen. For each Event, some actor or actors, such as a nation, NGO, a company, or a foundation, must be able to influence the outcome, at least in principle. Events are printed on cards with a headline, a date, and a brief description elaborating the headline. The + or – after each date in the Events indicates that the year is approximate (plus or minus 1 year in a majority of projects).

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

All forms of scenario planning attempt to manage risk by taking into account uncertainty. In some problem domains, the term scenarios refers to alternative forecasts, each based on a different set of assumptions. This use is especially common in problem domains where quantitative modeling prevails: “We expect the price of oil to grow by 10% per year,” or, “We expect CO2 emissions to grow at an annual rate of 3.5% plus or minus .5%.”

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

This is another in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be
used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

As a business tool, Scenario Planning has been evolving since Royal Dutch Shell systematized it the early 1970s. Beginning in the mid to late 1980s, Dave Mason and Jim Herman of Northeast Consulting Resources, Inc. (NCRI) created Future Mapping. One of us (Weber) was a Principal at NCRI and contributed to the evolution of Future Mapping, which we call Resolution Mapping here.

Monday, October 08, 2007

This is another a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Scenario Mapping processes can be used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand. Have outlined the Mess Mapping process, we now turn our attention to Resolution Mapping™.

Here are a few terms with meanings specific to Resolution Mapping (equivalently Scenario Mapping). We will elaborate in subsequent installments:

Endstate: a 1 or 2 page internally consistent description of an extreme, but plausible future of a Wicked Problem, industry, organization, market, etc. A set of 3-6 divergent Endstates that span the outcome space. The time horizon of the Endstates will depend on the Wicked Problem addressed.

Event: a hypothetical occurrence at a specific point in the future. Events have to be observable; one has to be able to determine whether the Event has occurred or not.

Scenario: a narrative describing the actors, drivers, motives, and key events that lead logically from the present to a particular outcome or Endstate. A Scenario answers the question, how did the world evolve from today to this specific Endstate?

Conventional Wisdom Scenario: a scenario representing the initial beliefs of participants at the outset of a Resolution Mapping workshop process. If you want to change how people think you first have to show them how they think.

Friday, October 05, 2007

This is the sixth in a series of "blogicles"
on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes can be used to
represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions
that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A Mess Mapping™ process is organized and structured in response to the nature of the principal Wicked Problem to be addressed. Although each project is different, there are some basic consistencies across problems and consulting engagements.

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

This is the fifth in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™
processes that can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems
and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.

A Mess Mapping™ process is a set of structured group methods
for collecting, sharing, organizing and evaluating information regarding a Wicked
Problems. A Mess Map™ diagram or mural represents a common mental model of the
problem at hand that shows the important “chunks” of information and their
relationships with other “chunks.”

Monday, October 01, 2007

This is the fourth in a series of "blogicles" on how Mess Mapping™ and Resolution Mapping™ processes can be used to represent, analyze, evaluate Wicked Problems and then to choose actions that ameliorate the Wicked Problem at hand.