LeBron James should look outside Miami and Cleveland for his next contract if he wants to win more championships, says stats guru Nate Silver.Source:Getty Images

According to Silver, who used a metric called Statistical Plus/Minus for his projections, the four-time NBA MVP should instead be taking his talents to the Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks, or Los Angeles Clippers.

All of those teams have a greater chance of handing James success than Cleveland and Miami, Silver’s analysis revealed - while going to the Los Angeles Lakers would be even worse.

“Neither would maximise his chances of winning a championship — but Cleveland, at least, is on an upward trajectory.

LeBron back in his Cavs days - before he broke the team’s heart with “The Decision” to leave for Miami.Source:AP

“In Miami, James runs the risk of staying too long with a team in decline. The Heat won 54 games last year in a historically soft Eastern Conference and were dismantled by San Antonio in the NBA Finals.

“As if the Spurs left any doubt, a team with 54-win talent is rarely good enough to win a championship. Since the introduction of the three-point shot in 1979-80, just one of 22 teams to finish with 54 regular-season wins has won the championship that season.”

Miami’s Big Three are at long odds to add to their two championships, Nate Silver says.Source:Getty Images

Silver says a team needs to get its wins total at least into the high fifties to have a decent chance of claiming a championship.

He projected that James would win just 51.6 games should he stay on with the Heat next season, and only a slightly better 52.4 games should he go back to Cleveland to team up with Kyrie Irving, who today confirmed a max contract at the Cavs for five years and $97 million. The Heat were projected to go just 52-30 even if they resigned the full Big Three of James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. In the teams Silver examined, only the Lakers (42.4 wins) fared worse.

LeBron James would have the best chance of winning titles with James Harden at Houston, Silver says.Source:Getty Images

The rising Houston Rockets, who have James Harden and Dwight Howard on their roster, had by far the best projection with 68.7 wins.

By joining Blake Griffin and Chris Paul at the Clippers, he was projected to win 65.8 games; at the Chicago Bulls with Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose, 58.7 games; at the Atlanta Hawks with the likes of Paul Millsap, 58.7 wins; at the Phoenix Suns with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe, 58.6 wins; at the New York Knicks with fellow superstar free agent Carmelo Anthony, 55.9 wins; and at the Dallas Mavericks with Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki, 55 wins.

Joining Blake Griffin at the Clippers is a better option that Cleveland or Miami, Silver’s data says.Source:Getty Images

The LeBron Decision MKII has dominated sports talk in the US, with fans and media completely obsessed with where the superstar will end up. The prevailing view is that is has become a two-horse race between the Heat and Cavs.

Silver also believes that is likely, despite the numbers indicating that the opportunity to add to his two championships lays elsewhere.

“Incumbency is a powerful advantage,” Silver wrote.

“James may stay in Miami or go back to Cleveland - even if some alternatives might give him a better chance of keeping up with (six-time championship winner) Michael Jordan.”

Cleveland superstar Kyrie Irving - great player, but not LeBron’s best option according to Silver.Source:AP