posted at 4:41 pm on May 21, 2014 by Allahpundit

Realistically, Walker’s the best chance conservatives have at a nominee who’s both acceptable to them and capable of stopping the RINO dynamic duo of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie in the primaries. Two months ago, that scenario was right on track: Walker led Democrat Mary Burke 48/41 in his race for a second term as Wisconsin governor. Two months later, the lead is up in smoke. It’s 46/46 among registered voters with Burke’s name-recognition rising.

Granted, Walker leads by three here among likely voters, but nothing’s going to stop me when I’m in an eeyore spiral. Dude, I’m nervous:

In May the gender gap finds Walker leading among men by 52 percent to 42 percent while Burke leads among women by 49 percent to 41 percent. In March, Walker won men by 52 to 37 percent while Burke and Walker tied among women with 44 percent each.

Voters age 18 through 44 support Burke over Walker by 51 percent to 41 percent, reversing a 49 percent to 38 percent Walker advantage in March. Among voters 45 and older, support has been more stable, with Walker receiving 49 percent to Burke’s 42 percent, as compared to Walker’s 47-43 margin over Burke in March…

Approval of Walker’s handing of his job as governor has risen slightly in May to 49 percent, with 46 percent disapproving. In March, 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved.

Fifty-two percent of voters say Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, while 42 percent say it is off on the wrong track, little changed from 54 percent right direction and 42 percent wrong track in March. Forty-eight percent of voters see the state budget as being in better shape now than a few years ago, while 22 percent see it about the same and 25 percent say it is in worse shape now.

I’m tempted to dismiss this as nothing more than a byproduct of a bad sample. In March, when he led by seven among registered voters, the sample was 27D/25R. Today, with the race tied, it’s 32D/24R. Independents favor Walker, so the smaller the margin between Democratic and Republican turnout this fall, the greater the likelihood of a Walker win. And Republicans are capable of beating Dems in turnout even in a blue state like Wisconsin. The exit polls for Walker’s 2012 recall win showed 35R/34D at the polls that day. It’s a truism because it’s true: In this case, it really does come down to turnout. And if I’m a member of the national Democratic leadership, eyeing the inevitability of a Walker presidential run if he wins this race, I’d work very, very hard to turn out Wisconsin Democrats to pull this upset. Walker’s arguably the most formidable candidate in the Republican field — executive experience, midwestern, not prone to easily exploited verbal gaffes, and someone whom both wings of the GOP would line up for. If you want to take this guy out, blowing him up on the launchpad in Wisconsin may be your only chance.

On the other hand, it’s possible that a generally Democratic electorate has reverted to form lately, which would make the sample more legit. The gender split also suggests growth by Burke as the public gets to know her better. Two months ago, her favorable rating was 19/22 with 59 percent saying they don’t know her well enough to have an opinion. Two months later, 51 percent say they don’t know her well enough and her favorable rating stands at 27/22. And before you say “that’s only because there are more Democrats in this poll,” know that this isn’t the only survey out there showing the race tied. A Republican poll taken a month ago also had it tied, as did a Rasmussen poll taken in March. And although the right track/wrong track numbers here look good for Walker, Obama’s job approval in Wisconsin is working against him. Nationally, The One is stuck at a dismal 42/52; in Walker’s state, O’s at 48/45. If that holds, expect to see a bunch of big-name Democrats, including Obama himself, campaigning in Madison this fall.

One other tidbit: Wisconsinites don’t like the idea of Walker running for president (27/67) and don’t think he can do his job as governor properly if he’s running nationally at the same time (31/65). I remember Christie’s opponent in New Jersey trying to make that an issue in his reelection run, pointing out that he was using the election as a stepping stone, but his lead was too big for that to matter. Walker’s isn’t. The more attention he gets as a potential GOP nominee, the more of a jam he’ll be in before fall.

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Why the super depressed post over one poll with a huge D sample margin? It’s really annoying seeing these hair on fire articles about a single poll. I believe I recall some articles right before the recall about how the polls were tightening, things were looking more grim, etc. But, Walker won with a comfortable margin.

While a victory is by no means assured, I fail to see the benefit of an article like this which focuses on one poll to draw broad based conclusions.

I don’t think the solid radical Democrat base will be out since they don’t like Mary Burke (Madison, WI School Board member after spending $100,000 to get that gig) and after State representative Brett Hulsey made a fool of himself at the State GOP convention. He offered to give out free KKK hoods for Republicans and got into a failed debate about Racism with a Black Republican Woman regarding racism against Black Americans within the past 50 years or so.

File this one under we’ll never understand dems, never. Walker has gotten this state back to where it’s livable and dems still want more socialism. You can place FL in that same category if they elect Crist again.

That wasn’t a deal breaker for me. I don’t have any problem with the process being easier and even cheaper. I do have a problem with wide open borders because is just continues the problem no matter how easy/cheap it is to come hear legally. For me, once we are buttoned up, I can talk about giving illegals here legal status. BUT NOT CITIZENSHIP. No votes for law breakers.

Watch this portion of his interview with the Milwaukee journal Sentinel and see if you are comfortable with his stand on immigration in general, let alone amnesty:

bw222 on May 21, 2014 at 7:20 PM

Here, without the Eeyore “all is lost” spin that leaves people wanting to hang themselves.

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News Executive Chairman Stephen K. Bannon for the Sirius XM Patriots network, Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker said he does not support amnesty and the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake, who previously reported Walker supports a “pathway to citizenship” for illegal immigrants took him “out of context.”

Rep. Paul Ryan told a group of business elites and donors at a New York City fundraiser that he’s asking friends and supporters “to keep their powder dry” as he mulls a 2016 presidential bid, two attendees told POLITICO.

Paul Ryan may be the one Republican I loathe more than McCain and Jeb. He got rolled by the dumbest VP ever and the dumbest woman in the Senate. Ryan gets his marching orders from his liberal wife.

Unfortunately the poll is accurate. Since then, Walker came out with a bible-thumping speech that turned off many young and female voters. And yes, he favors open borders and amnesty. Not a good national candidate. Florida would not vote for him.

On the thread about the Daily Show segment lampooning Harry Reid’s hypocrisy on big money in politics I said it was Stewart’s “best segment all week.” It’s lame how so many of y’all follow my posts really closely, but you can’t quite bring yourself to acknowledge that my critique is consistent.

I’ve watched the videos and read all the quotes. Walker is for amnesty, but he doesn’t want to call it that. What a shame because he was one of the few governors willing to go on the offensive against Democrats.

Didn’t someone mention Jeb? He loves open borders, amnesty and Common Core. Like his bro and Pappy, a true RINO. He was born in Texas after Mom made several trips south. Notice he does not resemble his brothers or his dad. He speaks excellent Spanish.
He cannot carry Florida or Texas.

I don’t think that’s a good idea. From pretty much everything I have seen, neither does Walker.

V7_Sport on May 21, 2014 at 8:30 PM

His statements seems to argue that he believes people have an absolute right to come to America to displace American Workers.
He also supports citizenship for illegal aliens.
He has shown he is willing to lie to get elected.

“If people want to come here and work hard and benefit, I don’t care whether they come from Mexico or Ireland or Germany or Canada or South Africa or anywhere else,” he said. “I want them here.”

Walker said he is in favor of the Senate immigration bill–that features a path to citizenship–but called it a backward “Band-Aid” approach, saying elected leaders should make it easier for people to enter the country and become legal citizens in the first place.

“Not only do they need to fix things for people already here, or find some way to do it, there’s got to be a larger way to fix the system in the first place,” he said. “Because if it wasn’t so cumbersome, if there wasn’t such a long wait, if it wasn’t so difficult to get in, we wouldn’t have the other problems that we have (with people living here illegally),” he said. Walker’s stance on immigration reform evolved over the years.

Walker’s stance on immigration reform evolved over the years. He said as a gubernatorial candidate in 2010 that he would sign an Arizona-style bill, which would allow local police to stop suspected illegal immigrants, if he were elected. Then, in December 2012, Walker said he no longer favored such a bill, telling reporters that such legislation would become a “huge distraction” from accomplishing his agenda for the state. Today, Walker said he would support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants under some circumstances.

“If people want to come here and work hard and benefit, I don’t care whether they come from Mexico or Ireland or Germany or Canada or South Africa or anywhere else,” he said. “I want them here.”

Walker said he is in favor of the Senate immigration bill–that features a path to citizenship–but called it a backward “Band-Aid” approach, saying elected leaders should make it easier for people to enter the country and become legal citizens in the first place.

“Not only do they need to fix things for people already here, or find some way to do it, there’s got to be a larger way to fix the system in the first place,” he said. “Because if it wasn’t so cumbersome, if there wasn’t such a long wait, if it wasn’t so difficult to get in, we wouldn’t have the other problems that we have (with people living here illegally),” he said. Walker’s stance on immigration reform evolved over the years.

Walker’s stance on immigration reform evolved over the years. He said as a gubernatorial candidate in 2010 that he would sign an Arizona-style bill, which would allow local police to stop suspected illegal immigrants, if he were elected. Then, in December 2012, Walker said he no longer favored such a bill, telling reporters that such legislation would become a “huge distraction” from accomplishing his agenda for the state. Today, Walker said he would support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants under some circumstances.

@Faraway..Bible-thumping. Speech by a religious fanatic who rejects all viewpoints not in line with his personal view. He joins the cabal of Santorum and Huckabee. Just as they did in 2012, they will drain away enough support in the primary to weaken the GOP candidate in the general election.

“If people want to come here and work hard and benefit, I don’t care whether they come from Mexico or Ireland or Germany or Canada or South Africa or anywhere else,” he said. “I want them here.”

Walker said he is in favor of the Senate immigration bill–that features a path to citizenship–but called it a backward “Band-Aid” approach, saying elected leaders should make it easier for people to enter the country and become legal citizens in the first place.

Also, from what I’ve read over the years, the economy in Wisconsin isn’t all that great. Not Walkers’ fault, but he’s no Obummer with the LSM on his side, master spin doctors, Saudi money and so on.

And, I had the feeling years ago that how the Wisconsin GOP went after public employee unions, especially the teachers, may backfire…just not a good political target.

Don’t know if Walker could have, but he should have made a stronger case that he wasn’t anti-public employee, but rather anti-closed shop which is something I personally think is thugish from the get-go.

Hopefully, the GOP will do some damage control and not screw this election up, too. And as pointed out, these polls are always suspect.

I don’t think that’s a good idea. From pretty much everything I have seen, neither does Walker.

V7_Sport on May 21, 2014 at 8:30 PM

“If people want to come here and work hard and benefit, I don’t care whether they come from Mexico or Ireland or Germany or Canada or South Africa or anywhere else,” he said. “I want them here.”

Walker said he is in favor of the Senate immigration bill–that features a path to citizenship–but called it a backward “Band-Aid” approach, saying elected leaders should make it easier for people to enter the country and become legal citizens in the first place.

Going more granular: Walker is in trouble with academic and big city lesbians, welfare rights advocates, single mothers with no chance of marriage but with a current baby daddy in prison, public school teachers, those with tattoos and piercings, recipients of disability payments, people on probation or parole, bankrupts, speakers of Ebonics, people of far below average intelligence, women’s studies/gender major college students, people with STDs, those that have never held a job in their adult life, advocates for out-sized minimum wage rates, Wiccans,petty criminals, high-school drop outs,the morbidly obese,drug abusers, Democrats, the populace of Madison, clients of public mental health centers and Unitarians.

This not a joke or a parody. This is factual. A interesting thing to contemplate.

If the job approval is up from the previous poll, and the state right/wrong track is unchanged and positive, then the difference is almost just statistical noise.

With a sample of 800, the ± 3.5% MOE applies to all measures, so assuming the same sample size in the previous poll, there is no real difference in Walker +7 and = as the result – they simply represent the opposite outer edges of the range.

╘╗

Also, we are entitled to use our brains, you know.

For instance, first of all, it’s Marquette. Check their history in state races, it’s all over the place.

But when a “representative sample” goes against every independently verifiable trend, it is smarter to doubt the sample then to assume a reversal of the trends.

Wisconsin is looking better economically and Walker’s reforms are gaining acceptance. [The good thing about Democrats’ over the top fearmongering is that it never comes to pass]. Obama’s approval is slipping there, too, and the national right/wrong track #s are falling as they are elsewhere.

It simply defies logic to believe there has been this sort of movement in opinion, given all this, so look elsewhere to explain it.

Wisconsin for the most part EVEN counting the beyond leftist tilt of Madison is a 50/50 state, leaning right just a bit as evidenced by Scott Walker’s 2 victories running for governor, with a bigger margin of victory in the attempt to recall him. To have a 57% D sample… well… how do you make up for a 7% deficit for the D? All of which actually demonstrates that not only is Burke likely still behind, but she’s probably even worse given that the gap in % is obviously greater than the 7% above 50%.

On the thread about the Daily Show segment lampooning Harry Reid’s hypocrisy on big money in politics I said it was Stewart’s “best segment all week.” It’s lame how so many of y’all follow my posts really closely, but you can’t quite bring yourself to acknowledge that my critique is consistent.

That’s enough to send left-wingers, and idiots(I know, I am being redundant), into a frothy rage complaining that he is “shoving his religion down our throats” and other nonsense(see weizbad’s reply to you).

“OMG! We have to stop Walker!! He is going to turn government into a theocracy! Next thing you know he will be performing miracles, and we all know only Obama can do that!!!”
– The left wing(and idiots. There I go, being redundant again.)