More Hits Than Misses: We Review Our Predictions for 2017

To start out 2017, we decided to take a stab at some predictions for the year in technology. How did our team fare? We take a look back at our predictions, with a twist – each member of the labs took a look at someone else’s predictions and reviewed them! And we added Akram to the team this year, but he’s not off the hook – he’s giving us an overall rating of this year’s predictions.

AKRAM’S OVERVIEW:In general, the CRT Labs team had some great predictions, with a lot of them ending up being true or at least, partially true. The general prediction about security and privacy being a major problem in 2017 turned out to be accurate all around the world. Several hacks, leaks, attacks, privacy concerns, followed by new and upcoming legislations show how important 2017 was in this regard. It also means that we should keep a cautious eye out with our 2018 predictions. While renewable energy technology didn’t gain the traction we had hoped it would, it definitely is being refined and researched, and we’re looking forward to what the coming years hold in terms of solar, wind and hydropower technologies. While increased awareness in cryptocurrencies was not part of our prediction, several applications based on its underlying technology – Blockchain – were seen implemented on a wide scale and continue to evolve as more people become aware of its uses. Tesla’s self-driving truck did disrupt the trucking industry as per our prediction – the question remains on whether they will follow suit with autonomous buses within the coming years. Keep an eye out on the CRT Labs team’s predictions for the upcoming year – it is bound to be a very interesting one!

CHAD’S PREDICTION:After solar shingles, there will be solar siding and solar window offerings for traditional consumers. This would mean that homes wouldn’t need consistent direct sunlight to harvest energy. Homes in traditionally less-sunny places could harvest solar as effectively as homes in the southwest. Home energy battery storage will make this an even more viable option as batteries look less and less like batteries and more like traditional appliances. Cities will also begin implementing systems that aren’t one type of energy harvesting. Solar, wind and hydropower will take great steps to become prominent in large and small cities. Cities will find creative ways to gather energy from these three methods that are both practical and aren’t highly visible. Portland is already generating hydropower using its water mains. Expect smaller form factors in all three areas for ancillary energy harvesting. Solar sunflowers and wind trees are examples we may see deployed on boulevards and parks in 2017.

Chad had a lot of solar power-related predictions this year, sensing the rise of more renewable energies being used over traditional fossil fuel sources. Solar power was the fastest-growing source of new energy in 2017 for commercial settings, beating out coal, the usual leading new energy growth source. The Paris-based International Energy Agency “expect[s] that solar PV [photovoltaic] capacity growth will be higher than any other renewable technology up to 2022.” We didn’t see the big push towards solar windows and siding – the technology is still being honed, with a paper published in late October touting the academic research into solar film for windows and siding application. Unfortunately, we did see a decrease in solar usage in residential areas, with the introduction of new laws and regulations that favor other energy sources. However, the outlook of solar energy is still bright (pun-intended) for many, with Google’s Project Sunroof giving you an estimate if your home is right for solar energy by calculating the amount of power your home could generate compared to your current energy usage. – Adrienne

CHRIS’S PREDICTION:In the managed smart home arena, we’ll see the telecommunications companies continue to grow in importance, and many of the “closed” managed smart home systems will loosen some of their restrictions, allowing consumers to bring their own devices. In order to secure the increasing number of internet-connected devices, the government will get involved in encryption and security requirements. Open-source software will continue to be incredibly important. Open-source distributed ledger applications such as Hyperledger and Corda will be among the first widely-used Blockchain apps, and open-source tools will also become increasingly important to journalists and citizen activists. Voice control, artificial intelligence, and deep machine learning will continue to redefine our relationship with devices, and self-driving trucks will disrupt the trucking industry (with cars and busses not too far behind). Monitoring the health of your home – CO2, energy efficiency, VOC, and water contamination – will see a rise in importance as rising CO2 levels and water contamination continue to make news.

I’ll highlight each prediction by Chris and then give my take. On August 1st, Senator Mark Warner introduced legislation that addresses internet of things devices and cybersecurity. It was read twice, then referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. There has been no action since. Groups like the FCC, FTC, and Department of Commerce introduced programs to establish best practices and start a cybersecurity framework. Asset management blockchain apps are just starting to be formed. Our own Dave Conroy developed several, including at least one using Hyperledger. And, we joined the Hyperledger Association this year! For the citizen activists and journalists, Twitter seems to have been the tool du jour, since a lot of the information coming at us is now coming in 140 character bytes (or is it 280?). As far as other tools, there weren’t a lot of new innovations this year. There’s been a lot of talk about VPNs being needed. One company that made great headway into the encrypted communications front is Protonmail. They released an amazing VPN client this year and an encrypted contacts client. We are seeing more voice assistants roll out, with Google’s latest Google Assistant work, as well as Google Lens and Apple opening up on artificial intelligence/machine learning. Tesla showed off their electric semi truck with a host of autonomous features. It’s iminent. Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors, recently declared we are ‘quarters, not years’ away from self-driving cars, and Las Vegas has been testing self-driving buses. There have been a lot of studies published this year on the effect of CO2 levels on people and the planet. While explicitly, there hasn’t been a concerted push by national entities or groups on the monitoring of the health of the home, I believe Chris’ prediction will definitely be a strong one in the coming year. We believe in it so much we are creating hardware and software to approach the problem. – Chad

JOE’S PREDICTION:

In 2017 we’re likely to see an increase in the tension between our public and private identities. On the one hand, declaring exactly who we are — and where we are, and when we are there — is an essential part of customizing many user experiences. Concerns about surveillance, though, are prompting more people to use (or at least start asking about) Tor browsers, personal VPNs, and other tools that provide increased security and anonymity. Balancing the demands of both openness and privacy will be a huge story in 2017. (To learn more about Americans and their views on surveillance, visit the Pew Research Center.)

Now that Google Home has hit the ground running, I predict this year the company will integrate its popular home assistant into their mesh network platform, Google Wifi. Each router will act a lot like an Amazon Echo Dot, but bring in the added mesh networking capabilities. Right now, a 3-pack of the routers costs $299, with additional units costing $129 (the same as a Google Home); however, I believe the company will introduce a smaller router, without the ethernet ports and with tiny speakers, at around $69 to compete with the $49.99 Echo Dot. Google’s goal is to get an assistant in every room in order to control your smart home. They’ve already pulled ahead of Amazon with their multi-room support, which not only has intelligent voice detection to allow you to only interact with the Google Home closest to you but also allows you to control playback on other Google audio devices in other rooms. Of course, for Google to control your whole home, they’ll need to expand compatibility, but since their API opened to the public at the end of 2016, both third party and native support for devices will be coming in 2017.

Adrienne’s absolutely crushed her 2017 prediction of “Google’s goal is to get an assistant in every room.” This year, Google expanded its hardware virtual assistant product offerings in an attempt to compete with the Amazon, the clear incumbent in this space. After an aggressive holiday discount, The Google Home Mini is currently priced at only $29. As Adrienne predicted, this makes you the ability to control your smart home with your voice in any room in your house. While they didn’t accomplish through adding voice to their mesh networking platform, I think we can give her a pass. Especially since there is still reason to believe that this may come true in 2018, as the Google Wifi is due for a hardware refresh. – Dave

DAVE’S PREDICTION:

I predict we have not seen the end of consumer-gradenial of Service (DDoS) attacks caused by consumer grade IoT devices. In fact, I feel it is possible we will see a large scale event in 2017 that would cause the disruption of legitimate internet traffic in the United States for up to 24 hours. As we covered in our Insecurity of Things blog series last October, it only takes a few dozen hardware manufacturers to not follow best practices to leave over a half million devices vulnerable to hijacking. With these manufactures already facing heavy competition and slim profits margins, coupled with the influx of new startups rushing to into the space – security and privacy are not given the priority they deserve. Part of our mission here at CRT labs is to educate REALTORS® and consumers about these issues, and it is very promising to see both parties starting to prioritize them when they are deciding what devices to put in their homes. However, until the hardware vendors start taking on the responsibility, there is still a significant risk for large scale attacks. For more information about best practices and how you can keep your devices secure, please visit one of our partner organizations – the Online Trust Alliance.

While Dave’s prediction of a large scale disruption of legitimate internet traffic for 24 hours didn’t come true – thankfully! – it certainly wasn’t a great year for security and privacy. One information security resource recently reported that 33% of all business were hit by a DDoS attack in 2017; that’s up from 17% in 2016. Were Internet of Things devices involved in the increased number of attacks? They sure were, so much so that some tech journalists took to using “the DDoS of Things” instead. DDoS attacks are sometimes launched as a smokescreen for other kinds of cybercrime, and nothing about 2017 suggests that this bit of double nastiness shows any sign of abating. So Dave might not have hit a home run, but his batting average is way up there. – Joe