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Pity the poor forecaster attempting to gauge that stubbornly sluggish animal, the U.S. economy. Even against relatively modest expectations, the economy has rarely failed to disappoint.

The Blue Chip Economic Indicators, released Friday, reported that its consensus of 50 economists predicts a pickup in growth by 2013. For 2012, the consensus expects growth of real gross domestic product to run just 1.8% (fourth-quarter-over-fourth-quarter), and then accelerate to 2.5% through 2013.

That 2.5% projection would be good news against the current era of diminished expectations. Note, however, that last year at this time, the Aug. 10, 2011, Blue Chip report predicted that 2012 would come in at 2.7%. The 1.8% is more plausible, given the poor performance of this year's first half.

Similarly, two years ago at this time, the Aug. 10, 2010, Blue Chip projected that 2011 would witness growth of 3.0%. The record books for 2011 now show 2.0%.

It's surely dispiriting to keep saying "wait 'til next year," a la Brooklyn Dodgers fans, only to find next year fails to deliver. Even 2013 is not expected to deliver much in the way of a falling unemployment rate.

The rate of joblessness, currently at 8.3%, has been fluctuating between 8.1% and 8.3% since the beginning of this year. The consensus expects it to be at 8.1% by the fourth quarter of this year, thus showing no progress at all through 2012, as the increase in the number of jobs about matches gains in the labor force.

By next year, the pickup in real GDP growth is expected to nudge the unemployment rate down to 7.7%. But that would still be at least two percentage points above anyone's definition of full employment. Against a labor force of 155 million, two percentage points represents 3.1 million idle workers.

The Blue Chip consensus of 50 economists also summarizes the consensus for the 10 most optimistic and the 10 most pessimistic. The pessimists, not surprisingly, have had the best track record over the past two years.

So it may be reassuring to learn that they, too, foresee a pickup in growth next year -- but a pickup to just 1.6% in 2013 from 1.4% this year. They also project a jobless rate of 8.1% by the fourth quarter of next year, which would mean no progress in the unemployment rate for two years running.

ALL THIS MAY SOUND LIKE an expansion in name only, which it practically is. But at least no recession is expected, although its risks are certainly taken seriously. The consensus puts the odds of recession at about one in four (25.9%), and the 10 most pessimistic at a little over a third (36.1%).

One key factor that weighs on near-term expectations: Of the 50 economists, the overwhelming majority (88.4%) believes the economy's looming "fiscal cliff" -- large tax increases and spending reductions due to kick in early next year -- will slow growth through the rest of 2012.

What about the optimists? The consensus of the 10 most optimistic believes a pickup in the second half of this year will leave overall growth at 2.2% in 2012, accelerating to 3.4% next year. They expect the unemployment rate will tick down to 8.0% by the fourth quarter of this year, and then fall to 7.3% by the fourth quarter of next. Can the optimists ever be right?