Tropical Storm ANDRES (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED MAY 21 2003
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER ANDRES CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE
YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
KNOTS. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR IF THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OR NOT...BUT
THE SHORT TERM TREND IS FOR THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANDRES TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING
THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THEREAFTER...ANDRES WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND
REGARDLESS OF SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE GFDL INSISTS ON
A RATHER QUICK INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 48 HOURS. IT MAY HAPPEN.
ANDRES IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS...STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
MAINTAINING THE HIGH OVER MEXICO...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM
SUCH MODELS IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 9.9N 110.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 10.0N 112.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 10.5N 115.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 11.5N 117.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 12.0N 120.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 13.5N 124.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W 30 KT
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