THE FIFTH DOWN; Charting Success Of Early Underdogs

By CHASE STUART

Published: September 26, 2012

FootballPerspective.com

The Arizona Cardinals are the surprise team of the N.F.L., joining Houston and Atlanta as the undefeated teams left in 2012. Last year, Buffalo was the flavor of September, but a 3-0 start ended in a disappointing 6-10 season. Two years ago on the Fifth Down, I wondered if the 3-0 Chiefs were for real; the answer was yes and no. Kansas City did make the playoffs, but largely on the back of the A.F.C.'s easiest schedule. According to the simple rating system, Kansas City was actually below average in 2010.">

The Arizona Cardinals are the surprise team of the N.F.L., joining Houston and Atlanta as the undefeated teams left in 2012. Last year, Buffalo was the flavor of September, but a 3-0 start ended in a disappointing 6-10 season. Two years ago on the Fifth Down, I wondered if the 3-0 Chiefs were for real; the answer was yes and no. Kansas City did make the playoffs, but largely on the back of the A.F.C.'s easiest schedule. According to the simple rating system, Kansas City was actually below average in 2010.

Every surprise team is different, and you can probably put that adjective in bold when talking about the 2012 Cardinals. Not only is Arizona 3-0, but the team has also been an underdog in each game so far this season. Arizona was a one-point home underdog to Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, a 13-point underdog in New England in Week 2 and 3-point underdog against the Eagles on Sunday.

The Cardinals are the seventh team since 1978 to start the year 3-0 despite being an underdog each week. How did the seasons for the first six teams turn out?

2010 Kansas City Chiefs: The 2009 Chiefs were 4-12, and 2010 wasn't expected to be much better. But despite being underdogs against San Diego, Cleveland and San Francisco, the Chiefs won all three games en route to a 10-6 season and an unlikely division championship.

2007 Green Bay Packers: Surprised to see the Brett Favre Packers here? Green Bay had gone 8-8 the prior season and faced a brutal early schedule in '07. The Packers were a 3-point underdog against Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb's Philadelphia Eagles in the opener and 2.5-point underdogs against the eventual champion Giants. In Week 3, San Diego, 14-2 the season before, was a 5.5-point favorite at Lambeau Field. Green Bay started 4-0 and finished the regular season 13-3, but the team's hopes ended in overtime in the N.F.C. championship game against the Giants.

2004 Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville had back-to-back-to-back crazy last-minute wins. In the season opener in Buffalo, Byron Leftwich threw for a touchdown on fourth-and-goal from the 7-yard line with no time left to Ernest Wilford, giving the Jaguars a 13-10 win. Jacksonville led Denver, 7-6, in their home opener the next week, but the Broncos had the ball with 37 seconds left on the Jacksonville 23-yard line. Then Denver running back Quentin Griffin fumbled, Akin Ayodele recovered, and the Jaguars were 2-0. The theatrics continued the next week against Tennessee. Trailing by 12-7 with 13 seconds remaining, Fred Taylor scored on a one-yard touchdown to keep the streak alive. But the anemic offense eventually caught up to the Jaguars, who missed the playoffs after going 6-7 the rest of the way.

1997 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay drafted Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks in 1995. Tony Dungy came in 1996, and Tampa finished 6-10. The Buccaneers drafted Ronde Barber in 1997, and the key cogs that formed one of the league's most dominant defenses were then in place. Tampa upset San Francisco at home and then won at Detroit and Minnesota in Week 3; the Bucs eventually reached 5-0 before finishing 10-6 and earning a playoff berth.

1996 Carolina Panthers: Dom Capers completed one of the great coaching jobs in N.F.L. history, taking Carolina from an expansion team in 1995 to the N.F.C. championship game in 1996. Carolina beat Atlanta and New Orleans but really caught the attention of the league when it defeated San Francisco, 23-7, in Week 3. Behind an excellent defense and an efficient offense, the Panthers finished the season 12-4.

1992 Pittsburgh Steelers: Chuck Noll's last season was 1991, when Pittsburgh stumbled to a 7-9 record. Expectations were not high for the rookie coach Bill Cowher's team in '92. As 12.5-point underdogs in Houston, the Steelers pulled off the upset, 29-24, before handily defeating the Jets and the Chargers. Pittsburgh finished 11-5 and made the playoffs.

What can we make of the Cardinals' surprising start as underdogs? Arizona has been an underdog by a combined 17 points so far. How does that compare with the other 3-0 teams?

From 1990 to 2011, 111 teams started the season 3-0. Of those 111, only the 1992 Steelers were bigger underdogs at a combined 18 points. The table below divides the 111 teams into four groups, based upon the total number of points they were given (or they gave) in their first three games. For example, 19 of the 3-0 teams ended up being given more points than they gave (i.e., were underdogs) in their first three weeks; on average, they were 2.4-point underdogs, and on average, they ended the year with 9.5 wins (which means they were an even .500 over their last 13 games). As you can see, there is a pretty clear relationship between expectations and ultimate results.

Arizona's defense is very, very good, but they're a Braylon Edwardscatch and a Stephen Gostkowskifield goal away from being 1-2; changing either of those two plays would have no impact on how good Arizona truly is as a team, but certainly would change the perception of the Cardinals. I know that some Cardinals supporters have found it trendy to point out that Arizona is 10-2 over their last 14 games, but that is about as relevant as noting that Arizona is 13-17 over their last 30 games.

The Arizona Cardinals are the surprise team of the N.F.L., joining Houston and Atlanta as the undefeated teams left in 2012. Last year, Buffalo was the flavor of September, but a 3-0 start ended in a disappointing 6-10 season. Two years ago on the Fifth Down, I wondered if the 3-0 Chiefs were for real; the answer was yes and no. Kansas City did make the playoffs, but largely on the back of the A.F.C.'s easiest schedule. According to the simple rating system, Kansas City was actually below average in 2010.">