Florida Outage Aside, New Plants Pave Clean Road for Nuke Power

The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) just offered its annual outlook for the future of nuclear power, and it's optimistic--partly of necessity. Today's 104 nuclear power plants generate about 20 percent of electricity in the United States. Due to rising energy demand and aging infrastructure, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission predicts that industry will need to build 50 new reactors to continue producing the same proportion of the country's power over the next 30 years.

Most of these plants have gotten past the glint-in-the-eye stage: Thirty-one reactors, representing 17 power companies and consortia, are somewhere in the application process--though NEI predicts only four to eight of those will be in commercial operation by 2016. By that time, pressure for an affordable, clean source of energy could inspire a second wave of applications. "Coal with carbon sequestration looks more like 20 years away than 15," says John Rowe, CEO of Exelon, the largest nuclear power provider in the United States. "Wind and solar are still more expensive than nuclear."

The latest designs for proposed plants are smaller, cheaper and more efficient than reactors of the past. Progress Energy recently filed applications for the right to build four new reactors in North Carolina and Florida. CEO William Johnson says the company chose between three Generation III and III+ designs before deciding on the Westinghouse AP1000 pictured above. (Current plants operating in the United States are all Generation II.) The AP1000, a Gen III+ pressurized water reactor, requires fewer pumps, motors and valves and 80 percent less safety-related piping than earlier versions. Yet it also includes new safety features. For example, no operator action or diesel generator is required to shut down the reactor in case of an accident. "New reactor designs are like car engines: They've become more cost effective and require less maintenance with fewer moving parts," Johnson says.

Safer, more streamlined plants carry a hefty price tag on the front end--about $4 billion each. But it's anticipated that they will produce electricity at $70 to $80 per megawatt-hour, a figure competitive with projected coal and gas prices. That's assuming the supply of uranium for fuel remains steady. Though uranium is an element relatively common in the Earth's crust, its price has recently been rising. Jerry Grandey, CEO of Cameco, the world's largest producer of uranium, predicts new deposits will be discovered within five years. He points out: "There are 400 companies looking for the next generation of deposits."

Of course, no discussion of the future of nuclear would be complete without a nod to the radioactive elephant in the room. The U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of high-level nuclear waste each year--and about 58,000 metric tons have so far piled up in 122 temporary storage facilities in 39 states. Each new reactor will add about 20 tons of waste per year, which costs about $2 million to store. Though the U.S. Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain storage facility in Nevada is slated to house about 77,000 tons of waste, budget cutbacks and safety concerns put the repository 20 years behind schedule--and indefinitely on hold.

Countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Japan and Russia use a process called Plutonium Uranium Recovery by Extraction, or Purex, to recycle nuclear waste. The U.S. stopped recycling waste as part of non-proliferation policy because the Purex process creates weapons-grade plutonium. Instead, officials in the nuclear industry look to new recycling methods that treat spent nuclear fuel as a resource. (Used rods contain 90 percent of their energy content.) Still in the research phase, these methods would create less waste while binding the plutonium to other chemicals so it is no longer desirable for use in weapons.

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