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The Prime Minister, tony abbott, is late for a meeting. All the VIP parking spots are already filled.

He gets his driver to drive his car into the public parking area, but there still isn’t a place to park the car.

Then tony raises his eyes to heaven and asks God, “Please help me to find a place. If you help me, I promise I’ll go to church every Sunday even when it isn’t a photo opportunity and I promise l will quit drinking and womanising and I promise to remove George Brandis as Attorney General.”
Then, suddenly, his driver finds an empty parking spot.

tony raises his eyes to heaven again, “I found this by myself and don’t need your help anymore…”

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP6,855,300 Votes

ALP 8,144,700 Votes

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

8.596% or

1,289,400 voters.

A definite swing to the right of around 3% but still 1.3 million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just above 50%

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems we are back to pre-spill numbers with the two Murdoch pollsters being quite sympathetic to the Government. Possibly setting up for another spill motion sometime soon. I wonder if it will be before or after the NSW election, which, by the way, could be a whole lot closer than is being assumed out there in Poll-land.