Chelsea's pursuit of Guus Hiddink will come down to money

Guus Hiddink seems ready to rejoin Chelsea but Roman Abramovich may have to pay the Turkish federation to get him there. Photograph: Michael Mayhew/Sportsphoto Michael Mayhew/Sportsphoto/Sportsphoto Ltd./Allstar

Roman Abramovich believes Turkey were preparing to sack Guus Hiddink before Chelsea showed interest in re-hiring him – and the Chelsea owner is therefore reluctant to compensate the Turkish Football Federation for the full value of the remaining 12 months on Hiddink's contract, a figure of £4m. Yet the fact that compensation will be demanded is one of the reasons why Abramovich can be so confident of taking the Dutchman back to Stamford Bridge.

Hiddink's Turkey team secured a 1-1 draw away to Belgium on Friday night to remain in contention for a play-off place for the European Championship next summer. They are one point behind second-placed Belgium, having played a game fewer. Germany have a 100% record and are the runaway Group A leaders.

Yet Abramovich had been led to believe the TFF was not satisfied with Hiddink and he thought that, if the TFF did not want the Dutchman, there should be no fundamental problem in appointing him as successor to Carlo Ancelotti at the end of the season.

As Hiddink's public stance has softened in recent weeks and he has indicated a willingness to consider the Chelsea job, which he held for three months at the end of the 2008-09 season, so the issue, as ever, has started to boil down to money – or, more precisely, the levels of compensation to be paid to the TFF which, it might be argued, cannot believe its luck.

The federation's hand in this game of poker is strengthened by the fact that it does not need to make the first move. Turkey's next competitive game is not until 2 September, against Kazakhstan at home, and Chelsea, ideally, would like Hiddink in place by 4 July, for the beginning of pre-season training. The TFF says its president, Mahmut Ozgener, has departed for a week-long holiday and that nothing can move forward in his absence.

That has to be taken with a pinch of salt as Chelsea will do what it takes to accelerate the process, beginning with a formal request for permission to open talks with Hiddink. There is a general acceptance within the TFF that Abramovich will get his man. But it will not make things easy and will force him, through gritted teeth, to compensate the federation fully. Abramovich, clearly, has the wherewithal.

Turkey were rumoured to be considering the replacement of Hiddink with Gheorghe Hagi, who was a hero in Turkey during his playing days at Galatasaray. But the Romanian has emerged as a contender as manager of his own national team. The post became vacant at the weekend when Razvan Lucescu resigned 24 hours after the Euro 2012 qualifying win over Bosnia-Herzegovina. It has been reported in Romania that Lucescu is to take over at Rapid Bucharest. Hagi might find the lure of managing his country impossible to resist, which would be a blow to Turkey. He has been out of work since an unsuccessful end to his second stint as Galatasaray's manager in March.

The TFF is also poised for a presidential election on 29 June and it is unclear whether Ozgener will stand for another four-year term. No candidate has been officially confirmed, although there is still a week to go until the deadline for contenders to put themselves forward.

Abramovich is already paying compensation to Ancelotti, who had one year left on his contract when he was dismissed, and the oligarch has paid out £35.7m after the dismissals of José Mourinho, Avram Grant and Luiz Felipe Scolari, together with their respective coaching teams.

Ancelotti, who has been linked to Aston Villa, Fulham, Queens Park Rangers and Roma, intends to take a one-year sabbatical from coaching. "I am in no hurry to coach and I don't need to," he said. "I have not been contacted by any club in England and I have not spoken to Roma. Besides a six-month break I have been coaching non-stop since 1995. I will take a year off and look around ... study how my colleagues work."