SportsLine’s Top Weekend Picks: Can Anyone Beat The Rams?

Michigan has a stellar defense and its offense isn’t bad either, but this point spread is out of hand. Penn State has tallied season-high points allowed against five of its eight defenses its faced, gave Ohio State all it could handle and its two losses were by a combined five points. My computer projections ultimately call for a one-score game — PSU is covering in a solid two-thirds of my simulations and is worth backing here at this spread.

SportsLine Expert: Stephen Oh (5-1 in last 6 CFB ATS picks)

Josh Jacobs (Photo Credit: Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers
Saturday, November 3, 2018, 8:00 ET

ALABAMA -14.5

Let’s be real, this game won’t even be close. The absence of LSU linebacker Devin White for the first half due to a targeting penalty late in the win over Mississippi State will allow Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to light up the Tigers defense early, and LSU quarterback Joe Burrow won’t be able to keep up. Not even a little bit.

The listless Lions managed just 14 points at home against the Seahawks last week, then traded WR Golden Tate, which isn’t going to help. The Vikings may have very well beaten the Saints last week had Adam Thielen not fumbled at the end of the first half, sparking a 10-point turnaround before the half in a 30-20 loss. Look for Minnesota’s offense to regain its confidence, as it uses the run against Detroit’s 31st-ranked run defense to set up Kirk Cousins and that potentially explosive pass attack.

The Saints come in red hot with a rating that keeps climbing following their six straight wins and five straight covers. Four of their last five have been on the road and two of those were against respected defenses at Baltimore and Minnesota. The Rams have won all eight of their games, but being the top-rated team in the NFL has made it hard for them to cover — they are 1-4 ATS in last five. But all they have to do here is win, which provides solid value.

It’s a battle of the best QBs in the NFL, but while both are great, they aren’t great in the same situations. As a home favorite, Tom Brady has gone 42-27-3 ATS since the 2008 season. Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, is a much more mediocre 11-13 ATS as a road dog since 2008. Yes, he covered in the same situation last week, but wouldn’t have done so had Todd Gurley not sacrificed personal glory for his team’s benefit.