Floor and ceiling

In recent days, the list of potential names for our 1st pick (be it #2, #6, or somewhere in between) appears to have come down to five names. But how do those names translate to the next level. What's the highest they could get to (but probably won't), and the lowest they could fall to (but probably won't). Just my two cents, but if we were to attach a name to each end of where (IMHO) a prospect's career may fall, I see it like this:

Prospect: Ceiling - Floor

Jadeveon Clowney: Julius Peppers - Vernon Gholston

In the end, I think Clowney falls to the high side of this comparison, which is to say closer to Peppers than Gholston; maybe even matching Peppers. However, I think he has some similar shortcomings to Gholston. At OSU, Gholston relied upon his freakish athleticism to overcome his inability to absorb the playbook. With Clowney, his freakish athleticism overcomes his poor technique. Well, HUb, I'm sure they can coach that high pad level and poor leverage out of him. Hopefully, but 3 years of a premier college program run by a former NFL coach didn't do it.

Khalil Mack: Lawrence Taylor - Aaron Curry

A huge spectrum, I know. In fact, a spectrum so large it's practically all encompassing. Well......yea. But I think that's what we're dealing with in the prospect of Mack. A true 3-down LB who is disruptive behind the line of scrimmage and down the field. Great range both vertically and laterally. Tangibles, work ethic, intensity, intangibles......everything is off the chart. Over the past 4 seasons, he's had 327 tackles, 74 tackles for loss, 28.5 sacks, 21 passes defended, and 16 forced fumbles. But, I say BUT, Curry had all those traits as well and did his production against a much higher level of competition. It's just hard to tell how he translates to the next level.

Jake Matthews: Joe Thomas - D'brickashaw Ferguson

Contrasted with Mack, Matthews probably has the thinnest spectrum. His game just looks more predictable (barring injury, of course) than other prospects. Doesn't rely on athleticism, though he has some, but rather a very clean, textbook technique. Will never be some road-grading run blocker, but will get the job done and keep his QB upright as well.

Greg Robinson: Willie Roaf - Michael Oher

Robinson's physical traits are in a class all his own. When compared with other OTs, there are few if any who can match his size (330+) with his athleticism. He moves extremely well at the gross motor level, but his lack of technique and pass blocking experience shows up at the fine motor level. He could be a one-of-a-kind mauling OT if his techniques is refined alongside more pass-blocking experience. Or he could simply be a right side wall that does a great job in a run-heavy offense.

Sammy Watkins: Reggie Wayne - Percy Harvin

I'll start with the floor. His game is very similar to Harvin, but he is bigger, stronger, smoother, and more natural in his routes. I truly believe the bottom end of Watkins potential is a Harvin-esque career. On the other hand, he has all the qualities needed to become a stand out receiver for many years to come. I doubt he reaches a Wayne like career, but I bet he ends up closer to Wayne than Harvin when it's all said and done.

"Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

Re: Floor and ceiling

Brandon Coleman: Calvin Johnson - Jonathan Baldwin

Obvisously, this is the guy I am most fond of this year because of his upside. I do recognize that he does have a downside of a Jonathan Baldwin, but I think his character and under the radar will greatly be a motivational factor for the Highest Ceiling Wide Receiver in this year's draft class, you heard me correct. He has overcome injury that slowed his senior year, and some horrible QBing for a school that lost their head coach of forced into a new conference. A school that has zero QBs has turned our Britt, Underwood, and Sanu....all guys that are ready to compete from day 1 and have NFL conditioning. People have him falling more due to others rising, but come draft day he will not make it out of Round 2.
If this guy played on Clemson, Texas A&M, or Florida St every projection would be Round1-2. Scouts are not fooled. He will be gone in the Top 60 and will be a true star if he is healthy.

Re: Floor and ceiling

I do however think Clowney has a higher floor than Gholston. Recording a singular sack in the NFL will give him a better career than that. It's awful hard to be as useless as Gholston was.

And I agree that Clowney's career is most likely on the high side of this spectrum. My only point with Gholston is that he's an athletic freak (remember the "god-like" tagline?) with a serious shortcoming. In his case, it was between his ears. While I believe Clowney's physiological shortcoming may be more between his sternum and spine, what concerns me with Clowney is his lack of technique. Poor leverage and high pad level. Can that be coached away? Yea, and for his sake I hope so. But if he doesn't get that nailed down, professional OTs are going to get him under him and neutralize him.

"Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

Re: Floor and ceiling

Good analysis, HUb.

My only change would be to suggest that Robinson's "floor" - if he would accept a position change - would be a well above average OG. Frankly, I find it hard to imagine that he would fail if he moved inside (he'd be more valuable, of course, if he can succeed at OT).

Re: Floor and ceiling

Originally Posted by AvengerRam

Good analysis, HUb.

My only change would be to suggest that Robinson's "floor" - if he would accept a position change - would be a well above average OG. Frankly, I find it hard to imagine that he would fail if he moved inside (he'd be more valuable, of course, if he can succeed at OT).

That's a fair point. A position move could very well increase his floor as viewed from the Guard position. Look at Robert Gallery. Utter failure as a LT, but actually had a decent career as a OG.

"Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod