Apple is predicted to ship more than 71 million iPhones in the fourth quarter of 2014 but fewer than 50 million units in the first quarter of 2015.

That’s according to a newly publicized forecast by the noted KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In a new research note to investors, Kuo claims that overall iPhone shipments will have an 82 percent quarter-over-quarter increase to 71.5 million units in this year’s holiday quarter, on account of the strong demand for the iPhone 6 (pegged at 41.65 million units) and the iPhone 6 Plus (15.1 million units). As reported by AppleInsider:

Leading the charge is iPhone 6, predicted to account for just shy of 60 percent of all sales for the quarter, or 41.65 million units. Coming in a distant second is the iPhone 6 Plus, which has been the more talked about next-generation variation due in large part to its scarcity at retail outlets. Kuo says the 6 Plus supply shortage is not only an indicator of high demand, but also confirmation that suppliers are having production issues. He believes final fourth quarter sales are largely dependent on supply chain success with 6 Plus yields.

But during the first quarter of next year, Kuo says, off-season shipments will drop to 49.4 million iPhones, including 21.6 million iPhone 6 units and 10.2 million iPhone 6 Plus units.

Along with the iPhone 6 and the iPhone 6 Plus, last year’s iPhone 5s will see a quarter-over-quarter decline in shipments. Interestingly, the low-end iPhone 4s and iPhone 5c versions of Apple’s smartphone are forecast to have increased shipments during the quarter thanks to promotional pricing and marketing in emerging markets.

Be that as it may, Kuo notes that Apple is likely to discontinue both the iPhone 4s and the iPhone 5c as it focuses on offering iPhones with bigger screens, Touch ID integration, and Apple Pay support.

Earlier this month, Kuo released a research note claiming that Apple’s long-rumored “iPad Pro” wouldn’t go into mass production until the second quarter of next year. In the note, Kuo also predicted another decline in iPad sales early next year, with a 54.5 percent quarter-over-quarter drop to 9.8 million shipped units in the first quarter of 2015, “given a lack of new applications, tablet market saturation and slow season.”