One more reason why for me, an &quot;alternative&quot; power supply is desirable:

One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is like having a valuable form of insurance, along with my garden and root cellar.
I know this has been discussed before, but this is new info on the BBC News website:

"23 August 2013
Our first line of defence against violent solar storms"

“The impact on the electric power grid could be catastrophic,” Murtagh says. “It could result in a widespread blackout, extending not just hours, days or weeks, but maybe months or years.”

Murtagh is quick to deny that this is scaremongering. He explains that space weather forecasters are concerned about a weak link in global infrastructure: transformers, in power and substations around the world. “Picture what would happen if we damage some of our big transformers – some of them are as big as houses, and they are tailor-made in large part as well. To get them replaced would take an extended period of time,” he warns. “The impact could be long term.”

Comments

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

Sounds like scaremongering to me.

A certain expert I know says this is nothing to worry about at all. But only because the grid infrastructure is so badly in need of repair, replacement, and updating that it is more likely to fail catastrophically on its own than as a result of any outside force.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

so when a big one hits who are we going to elect as chicken little to run around saying the sky is falling?:p

coot is right that it won't take much to zap the grid and then they'll be forced to upgrade it. care to guess who will pay dearly for the utility's neglect? even some off grid pv systems can get knocked out if like a carrington event so put a few spare ccs, inverters, and pvs in a faraday cage for that stormy day. right, we'll get right on it chief.:roll:

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

Of all of the "doomsday" scenarios, this is the one that keeps me up at night. The long-distance transmission lines act as big inductors, picking up on all the current flowing in the earth. That zaps the big transformers at the substations (not off grid pv or other electronics). This happened in 1989 in Toronto. The original Carrington Event zapped long-distance morse code lines and if it had happened today we would all be living in a 3rd world country. It takes months just to get one of those transformers built and moved into place, so kill a hundred and we are screwed, permanently. Especially when the fuel that would have powered the transformer factory, and delivery trucks, was used up long ago.

Home system 4000 watt (Evergreen) array standing, with 2 Midnite Classic Lites, Midnite E-panel, Prosine 1800 and Exeltech 1100, 660 ah 24v ForkLift battery. Off grid for @16 of last 17 years. Assorted other systems, and to many panels in the closet to not do more...lol

even some off grid pv systems can get knocked out if like a carrington event

I've never seen an off-grid system that has enough miles of wire to act as an inductor. A nuclear weapon EMP will take out off-grid systems. But not a solar event.

The danger to the grid from a large solar event is very, very real. It is not science fiction, nor is it scaremongering. Nor is it "if". It's "when". On average, from information gotten from Greenland ice cores, these large solar events have hit earth once every 500 years or so. With many smaller events several times per century. The one that knocked out power in Quebec, Canada in March 1989 was just a tiny event in the big picture. But at Cummins we learned a lot from it. It was something that was never even thought possible at the time. That event even blew switchgear for standby power systems - not from the flare itself but from the huge power surge that hit the transformers, then hit the equipment, before the transformers blew.

Nothing has been changed in the grid distribution system since that event as far as mechanical aspects of equipment. The new line of defense is to predict when it will happen, and shut the entire grid system down to prevent damage. How well that works remains to be seen because there is some lackluster attitude among major operators of the various sections of the grid distribution system. And there is no time for evaluation of data once a warning is issued by Boulder. It will require immediate action to prevent widespread damage. If the prediction is off or false the economic damages from shutting down the national grid system unnecessarily, even without an event, go into the billions. With large scale power plants feeding the grid it's not a matter of just turning the switch off or on.

So as it is today, the entire system is vulnerable. And even grid-tied battery backup inverters connected to the grid when it happens will more than likely be blown right off the wall. I know, because our EE's that examined blown Power Command switchgears after the Quebec event determined that the voltage surge that made it thru the transformers exceeded 150 kV - the equivalent of a direct lightning strike over a very large area.

There's always people who think man, with all his technology, is now invulnerable. I call this "head in the sand" syndrome. Man has just gotten enough technology to start to learn that outer space that our tiny little planet travels thru is a very dangerous and violent place. And for the most part, there is only a couple things that protects us from this dangerous place - a little blanket of air about 20 miles thick that covers the planet, and the fact that this rock has a molten iron core that has a magnetic field. Every second our sun releases billions of times more energy than mankind has generated here on earth since the dawn of his existence. When it spits a little plume of fire our direction, we'll see just how well those two things are able to protect us from it. In the past, they haven't done exceedingly well with a direct "hit".
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Chris

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

I agree that the electric system has vulnerabilities, but I'm a lot more concerned about the gasoline supply. The utilities may have interruptions, but have the capability to always get the grid back up and running. The supply chain for transportation is very long and has lots of vulnerabilities, lots of politics, lots of geopolitics, and has fewer alternatives than electricity. What are we gonna do when the gas pumps run out (or gets way expensive)? My guess - stay home and build a local economy.
(portion edited by niel) There are all kinds of things out there to be afraid of. Enjoy the good times while they last. Get ready for what is coming.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

i'll add here that some speculation is ok to do, but in the solar skeptics, hype, and scams section is where this can be elaborated on more extensively. i do agree that one must try to avoid general politics and religion as this is too touchy for a solar forum and can lead to conflicts among the membership and would be counterproductive. as the thread title suits the placement into that area of the forum i will move it there and reopen this thread.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

I do appreciate the last post by Chris, as I believe it to be informative, factual and something we should all be aware of. I well remember the Quebec event and believe we shouldn't be hiding our heads in the sand.
That said, I'm also of the opinion that wild exaggerations, hype, conspiracy theories, anti-science, politics and religion have no place on this forum. There are other places for that.
Peace to all.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

chris,
i am saying that some off grid systems do have plenty of wire as we have been getting requests for advice with run lengths well over 200ft to the pvs. it would have to be a very severe event for sure, but it can happen. it does not take anywhere near as much energy to blow out electronics as it does telegraphs or transformers as lightning emp has proven time and time again.

also note that these large events do happen more often than you think, it's just that they did not hit the earth seeing as how these events are directional. we have been sideswiped before by large events and got off lucky.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

Yes, but it takes more than 200 feet of wire even during a strong solar flare event. It takes miles of wire. The magnetic field from the flare is not even as strong as a 'fridge magnet. And you can wipe fridge magnets over your wiring on your off-grid system all day and it's not going to do anything but wear your arms out. However, cut the lines of flux on a weak magnetic field over miles and miles and miles of wiring (the grid) and you get a very large voltage induced that, if transformers are connected, initially passes thru the transformer to your equipment, then causes the transformer primary to burn out and fail.

All of the damage to equipment in the '89 Quebec event was caused by voltage surge that made it thru the transformers, and not by the flare itself. To humans back thru the ages these large solar events have been nothing but a beautiful and awe-inspiring display of the aurora, which many have reported as visible in the South Pacific even. What has changed since then and now is the fact that we have built a huge spiderweb of inductors that the wheels of commerce, the financial world, and even our everyday lives, depends on. We learned from the Quebec event just how vulnerable that huge spiderweb is.
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Chris

TV cables and phone wires are pretty long too. All would be taken off by such event.

I'm not totally sure, but I think a lot of the long distance communications networks are now fiber optic cable. And fiber optic is immune to becoming an inductor. Coaxial cables, like for TV, are shielded and even though the shield can act as an inductor, it just goes to ground. The communications networks depend on the grid to operate, but they also have battery and diesel backup power for them that can keep them operating for a very long time in the event of a long term grid outage. That was by design.

The grid was never really by design. It was invented in the US by the REA providing government funding to electric utilities to build it. It has a small foundation with stuff piled on top until it has become top heavy and in danger of tipping over. This due to the logistics of transmitting huge amounts of power long distances instead of using on-site generating facilities. So it is all interconnected instead of being made of modular, with easily replaceable and upgradable components. Today it is being propped up to keep it from tipping over. I call it bad design. But it was never really designed. It was cobbled.

Take a walk thru any major city and look at the high voltage lines running to and fro, back and forth, criss crossing all over the place with no apparent regard for clean design. There's many places that a 20 kV line can't even be blown down in a storm without falling on a 13.8 kV line that runs underneath it, and shorting out the whole works. That's what makes it vulnerable. Try running an overhead, insulated residential voltage power line from one building to another one on your property and there's three pages of electrical code that deal with what wire you can use, how it has to be suspended, what grounding the suspension has to have, what type of insulation the wire has to have, etc.. But it's perfectly OK to run uninsulated 13.8 kV lines right thru your back yard suspended on wood poles. Whoever thought that up is a raving idiot.
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Chris

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

From when we first hear of a CME event, we have 2 to 3 days of preparation until the charged particles reach Earth. On a grid tied system is simply throwing the breaker and disconnecting any ethernet cables sufficient, or should they be physically disconnected? Also, what about the ground wire? Would it be better to leave it connected to bleed off any charges, or disconnect it so that the system is totally isolated from everything?

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

Definitely do not unhook the ground. Up in Quebec in '89 the high voltage surge jumped the air gap on the contacts in Power Command switches and blew the insulation off 480V cables to ground. So I'm going to say that if the equipment is hooked to the grid and a voltage surge makes it thru the transformer it will be damaged. Turning breakers off will not protect it because the the voltage goes so high it simply jumps the air gap on the contacts.

I've also seen this same type of damage where a high voltage line slaps the neutral during wind storms. The neutral, or ground wire, typically runs on top of high voltage transmission lines so if lightning hits it, it carries the surge to ground and protects the transformers from overload. But sometimes the wind will make the high voltage lines "whip", slap the overhead neutral and surge the transformer. When the secondary voltage surge from the transformer exceeds the rating on switches and insulated cables, it simply blows right thru.

The problem I see today is that even though the Space Weather Center in Boulder can predict a solar storm, and whether or not it will hit earth, the decision has to be made by the grid operator to shut it down. Everybody has to comply or it won't work. The economic ramifications of shutting down the national grid system in the event of a wrong forecast runs into the billions of dollars. It takes time to shut it down, and it takes time to bring it back online.

Powerplants are not like the standby generator in your back yard - you simply can't turn the switch off and shut it down. How fast will they react in the event a warning is issued by Boulder? Most are not going to believe it, and that's my gut feeling. And by the time they decide to do something about it when it becomes evident the prediction was correct, is there enough time left to take corrective action? That's the flaw that I see in the present system. But it's the best defense we have at present.

It is not practical to shield thousands of miles of wiring. There's no way to stop it because man cannot control space weather. There's thousands of transformers that have to be disconnected from interstate transmission lines. There's never been a drill. No way to practice for it. One the size of the Carrington Event just passed 2 days ahead of the earth's position in orbit 2-3 weeks ago. We are now in a period of solar maximum. The odds, IMHO, are stacked against the present method of dealing with it, and that due to indecision by the major grid operators because of the ramifications of shutting it down. Everybody knows about - there is a Congressional Commission formed to deal with it. But there is no one single responsible and informed person that holds the key to make it happen.

The ultimate answer is to re-design the whole system and do away with those interstate transmission lines. But there's too much money invested in the present setup. So that's not going to happen any time soon. Most people don't believe it. They haven't been on the planet long enough to know better. So it's what I call a "house of cards".
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Chris

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

Even 2-3 days is optimistic, there have been CMEs which arrive in less than a day at the fastest velocity measured. I agree that the air gap of open breakers for grid-connected equipment isn't enough to protect you, I've advised completely disconnecting the wires to those breakers on here before. But like I said in my last post, local off-grid equipment won't be affected. Miles of cross-country wiring is necessary to act as an inductor.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

whether or not the large dc systems will ever be affected in an extreme event is yet to really be determined, but i will concede that it is highly unlikely. also it is possible for surges to pop into the center of a coaxial cable and energize it in addition to the long lengths of wire could also be inductively charged to the center wire as the emf makes its way to ground. parallel wires will act as a transformer.

i would not leave coaxial or ethernet cables connected to tvs, modems, or whatever other equipment is present. those cables should still be at ground potential before entering the building if at all possible.

techntrek,
that is a good solution is to pull the wiring, but it needs distance too or it could still jump to it. isolation is key. it may work to ground the open end of the breaker after pulling the wire and shutting off the breaker as any emf jumps will then ground out and would be less likely to jump to the removed wiring. it would be a hassle to do this for many circuits and essentially shuts those circuits off from use.

SO how much air gap would be needed? Would pulling the meter be enough? That is like 3 inches.

Probably. With no load there's no current so no reason for a surge to take that path. It looks for a way to ground and it will find the easiest way there. Which is probably not going to be a meter socket with the meter pulled out of it. Flipping off the main in a service entrance could do the same thing - except that if the potential built in the feeder to the service panel I'm afraid it could jump the quite small air gap in a main breaker - and once you get current flowing she's history.

For people that have never seen this happen from other sources like lightning strikes or wind storms causing a neutral slap, it's usually not fathomable. But once you examine a blown piece of equipment that should've never blown it becomes pretty obvious why you'd probably feel safer jerking the meter out of its socket than trusting a circuit breaker.

Not sure how the conventional surge arrestors or SPD's would handle such a thing. Lighting strikes are usually just milliseconds where the surge from large magnetic field inducing current in long wires is continuous until something gives out. Maybe those SPD's like I got from MidNite Solar for lightning protection on our system would work? I don't know.

They are SPD300's from MidNite Solar. I have one on our DC bus and 3 on each wind turbine. I've had wind turbines get hit by lightning several times and it always blows something up - usually the rectifier. I think those are supposed to "clamp" the voltage to your equipment to less than 10 kV. But I don't know what the duty cycle is. They have a blue LED in them and I think if that LED is off she's shot and has to be replaced.

At 60 kV the average residential service entrance box will be lit up like a Christmas tree. Anything hooked to it will be put to the test. You'll get blue fire from bus bars right to box.
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Chris

chris,
that's why i said to also ground the output of the breaker as it will want to jump the smallest path to get to ground.

as to the 3in gap it may not be enough if there's nothing else to divert it. spd may work well enough, but the movs inside could explode if overloaded. generally i go with a rule of thumb of about 1in of arc per kv. i have already seen an arc of about 6ft long and with a diameter of about an inch race from an antenna coax connector to a wall socket when the ground wire was accidentally severed and a storm blew in. the antenna was about 20ft high so imagine pv wire runs in the hundreds of feet and what that can pick up and some ham antennas are this big too.

as to the 3in gap it may not be enough if there's nothing else to divert it. spd may work well enough, but the movs inside could explode if overloaded

What I'm wondering is how well those SPD's will work for grid-tie people to prevent damage to their equipment? It's not only solar flare, but also lightning and surges caused by wires slapping other wires during wind. For people that have battery-based inverters hooked to the grid for selling power to it, it's a shame to lose the equipment due to a power surge and not be able to use it as off-grid until the power comes back on.
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Chris

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

they work, but are not foolproof. midnite went with multiple large movs which increases your odds quite a bit. you may need input from midnite as to the point of no return. remember that it is always about increasing your odds, but like lightning hitting right next to it or direct there aren't any guarantees that it won't pop as that's allot of power. the drawback to the spd is that it will allow a surge voltage up to the rating of the movs.

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techntrek,
that is a good solution is to pull the wiring, but it needs distance too or it could still jump to it. isolation is key. it may work to ground the open end of the breaker after pulling the wire and shutting off the breaker as any emf jumps will then ground out and would be less likely to jump to the removed wiring. it would be a hassle to do this for many circuits and essentially shuts those circuits off from use.

I think the easier solution - and one which will get you a great air-gap - is to go to each service panel, mark each breaker with its slot number, flip off the main, remove the cover and then unclip each breaker. Pull each one as far away from the busses as possible (and flip each one off) and tape them to the wall so they stay away. Put the cover back on to contain any arc-flash and then find your best whiskey. AFCI breakers will take a little more work since you'll need to disconnect the neutrals for each one.

BTW, anyone ever have an AFCI fail? I have one that I installed about 4 years ago and it tripped permanently the other day. The other two installed at the same time are fine and I used them to verify I don't have a problem with the circuit. Figures one of the expensive breakers would fail and not one of the cheapies.

BTW, anyone ever have an AFCI fail? I have one that I installed about 4 years ago and it tripped permanently the other day. The other two installed at the same time are fine and I used them to verify I don't have a problem with the circuit. Figures one of the expensive breakers would fail and not one of the cheapies.

Re: One more reason why for me, an "alternative" power supply is desirable:

I've often thought about what I'd do if there was a significant solar flare. I planned to throw the main breakers in my shop and house panels, but now after reading this I don't think that would be sufficient. I do have whole house SPDs wired into each panel, but I don't think that would help with a big event. I'm a firm believer in the fact that "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". This might sound extreme, but I actually have two MOV SPDs wired into each panel with the reasoning that if an initial incoming spike from lightning, CME, etc took out the MOVs in one of the SPDs, then maybe the backup SPD might survive and be able to clamp any additional spikes. Might be wishful thinking. Anyway, about the only other thing I could think about doing would be to pull the meter in an extreme emergency, but I would probably get in trouble with utility company for cutting the small lock/seal. If it was really a big solar event that caused a lot of damage, I wouldn't worry so much about it because of the circumstances. However, if it ended up being a false alarm and nothing big happened, that's when I think they'd probably be mad and think I'm trying to do something wrong.

Related to that, I was also doing some reading on a firefighter's forum that talked about meters exploding when being pulled and causing injuries, and that's why a lot of fire departments don't recommend their firefighters doing it anymore. Not sure how they exploded. Personally, if I knew a big CME was coming, I'd plan to throw the main breakers in both panels anyway, so I don't know how a meter could "explode" if there was no current passing through it to arc when disconnected.

a firefighter's forum talked about meters exploding when being pulled and causing injuries, and that's why a lot of fire departments don't recommend their firefighters doing it anymore. Not sure how they exploded. Personally, if I knew a big CME was coming, I'd plan to throw the main breakers in both panels anyway, so I don't know how a meter could "explode" if there was no current passing through it to arc when disconnected.

In Nova Scotia, the monopoly called Nova Scotia Power Corp does not want firefighters to remove meters no matter how severe the emergency, they want to reserve that privilege for themselves. They insisted there will be dead shorts inside the burning house which would cause huge and devastating arcs as the meter contacts are being separated and that these huge arcs would kill the firefighters because the firefighters are not electricians. They hadn't yet thought to tell us the meters would explode. In my early years as a volunteer firefighter we also carried on our trucks a 30 foot fiberglass pole used to pull the fuse on the residential transformer in an emergency. That was also stopped because we were not trained by NSP to keep the fiberglass pole clean, and we were obviously too stupid to keep it clean. So now we arrive at the fire and wait usually 45 minutes to an hour and a half or more for NSP to show up and disconnect the power.
And now of course insurance companies would walk away from us at the first hint we may have presumed to know anything about electricity, so all the old ways are out the window.

They insisted there will be dead shorts inside the burning house which would cause huge and devastating arcs as the meter contacts are being separated and that these huge arcs would kill the firefighters because the firefighters are not electricians.

Is this sort of like the FPS Russia guy that says, "Don't try this at home, but I can do it because I'm Professional Russian" ?
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Chris