Analysis: Gov. Christie's work after two years in office a mixed bag

Andrew Miller/The Jersey JournalEven though Gov. Chris Christie helped get a general two percent cap on levy hikes passed, many homeowners continue to see their property taxes rise.

TRENTON — Governor Chris Christie has used his first two years in office to control property taxes, cut spending, reinvigorate New Jersey's economy and restore ethics to a state long known for corruption — all while working harmoniously with Democrats.

That's the version promoted by the governor and his supporters that has been widely accepted by many across the country, sparking national media attention and even a push for a presidential run until Christie quashed that himself.

But there's another version of the reality of life in New Jersey that is at odds with such a uniformly happy image.

Average property tax bills remain at an all-time high even as many towns have laid off public workers and cut services to abide by a new 2 percent cap on overall tax levies.

Unemployment is still stuck above 9 percent, while low-income workers have seen the earned income tax credit reduced.

And in Trenton, state spending went up this year but steep cuts in property tax relief remain largely in place. New Jersey is also skipping all but a fraction of the pension payment that actuaries recommend this year despite a downgrading of the state's credit in February that was brought on partially by the state's already-huge unfunded pension obligation.

New Jersey's weak ethics and campaign-finance laws also remain unaddressed as Democratic lawmakers continue to ignore Christie's calls for reform.

Yet Christie — a Republican who promised to turn Trenton "upside down" when he took office in early 2010 — has tackled much in two years, taking on high property tax bills, poor state finances and a sagging economy, among other items that include a historic restructuring of public worker benefits.

The self-styled, straight-talking governor has also been unafraid to promote himself, using live-streamed news conferences, YouTube videos, frequent social-media updates, high-profile speeches throughout the country, town-hall-style meetings and with numerous network and cable television appearances to get out his own message.

His efforts seem to be working, as recent polls in New Jersey found the Republican governor's approval rating is comfortably above 50 percent as 2012 begins. Nationally, many in the Republican Party were convinced last year that the former U.S. attorney and Morris County freeholder should be the GOP candidate running against President Obama in 2012.

Christie has confronted long-standing problems that have stymied governors for decades — and has made progress. However, perceptions of Christie's successes may not always match up with the realities in New Jersey.

Here's a closer look at Christie's first two years in office, and how the perception compares with the reality on some key issues.

Perception: Property taxes addressed.

Reality: Local property tax bills soared by 4 percent to an average of $7,576 statewide and the overall burden on taxpayers grew by a combined $1 billion in 2010. But that was before Christie's general 2 percent cap on levy hikes went into effect on Jan. 1, 2011. Property tax levies increased because the new cap allows several exceptions, including debt payments and employee pension and health benefit costs. But the increases were among the smallest in the last decade.

Perception: Public employee benefit costs controlled.

Reality: The state's costs to cover government workers' health care are driven by these factors: the price tag for a health plan and what percentage of that is covered by the state versus how much workers must cover themselves. Christie's push to let workers sign onto new, cheaper plans failed to make significant savings; just 309 of the 397,000 employees elected any of the cheaper coverage this year. Workers start to contribute more toward their health care in July, and by 2014 will, on average, cover 20 percent of the insurance cost, leaving the state carrying the 80 percent margin. Christie's brag of $100 million savings this year turned out to include an unrelated $90 million windfall available through federal health reform — not part of Christie's own policy. Meanwhile, Christie's reforms do not press insurers to keep costs from rising, leaving local governments squeezing other services to pay more of their revenue every year toward insurers' bills. State costs rose $3.5 billion in the fiscal year ending June 30, an increase that alone eclipses the predicted 10-year savings of $3.1 billion from the new public-worker health reforms.
Perception: Unfunded public pension system on the way to solvency.

Reality: While Christie on Dec. 20 said state pension funds would soon be solvent, the best-case scenario under Christie's public-pensions reforms is to bring all the major funds to 88 percent solvency within 30 years. The state, having skipped payments into public pension funds for more than a decade, budgeted $484 million this year, a fraction of the $3.3 billion ideal scheduled payment toward a $54 billion deficit. Lower-than-ideal payments are scheduled for the next six years. If Christie or a future governor refuses to pay as planned, or if state investments don't earn as much as the 8.25 percent expected, pensions will be kept underfunded and eat into the funds' solvency. And that outcome is further endangered by a lawsuit headed to the state Supreme Court, challenging whether judges must follow other public workers and pay increased contributions.

Perception: Budget and spending under control.

Reality: The state constitution does not allow a budget deficit and Christie has enacted two balanced budgets to meet that obligation. He's done so, in part, by ignoring several laws that seem to require spending, such as on property tax relief, education and the state's pension obligation. But that required spending is trumped by the state budget bill. And though Christie has cut spending on many programs since taking office to reach a balanced budget, overall state spending has grown slightly during his first two years in office as federal stimulus aid has ended.

Perception: New Jersey's economy back on track.

Reality: New Jersey has gained thousands of private-sector jobs during Christie's first two years in office, but there have been losses in the public sector and the state's unemployment rate still tops 9 percent — higher than the national unemployment rate and unchanged in November even as 30 other states saw improvement. But the governor felt confident enough in his economic policies back in the summer to project more than $1 billion in additional revenue for the new fiscal year that began on July 1, and so far revenue collections are up 5 percent over the same period last year and nearly meeting Christie's projections.

Perception: Divided government working in New Jersey.

Reality: Christie has been able to persuade the leaders in the Democratic-controlled Legislature to compromise with him on some major issues, including the limit on property tax hikes, public employee benefits cuts and his first state budget. But in most cases, Christie has won only the minimal amount of votes necessary from Democrats to move his initiatives forward, and he's done so by cutting deals with lawmakers tied to the Camden and Essex Democratic machines, organizations that rely heavily on the old-school systems of patronage and pay-to-play that Christie has criticized.

Perception: The former U.S. attorney is cleaning up New Jersey government.

Reality: Christie built his reputation as a federal prosecutor who took on some of New Jersey's most corrupt politicians. As a gubernatorial candidate, he heavily stressed ethics during the 2009 campaign, devoting 11 of his 88 ways to fix New Jersey to the ethics issue. But he has yet to use the same hardball tactics he employed to win Democratic votes on other initiatives and to convince the Democratic power brokers it's time to ban local pay-to-play, wheeling and the holding of more than one public office or job — which is banned in many other states but is still legal in New Jersey. And though Christie has taken on waste and corruption at New Jersey's many authorities, boards and commissions, the governor has been questioned by those who believe he is not holding recent examples of wasteful spending at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey — an agency Christie oversees along with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo — to the same standard.

Perception: Christie is a straight-talking, blunt governor.

Reality: As much a part of Christie's political power as his policies, the governor's public persona allows him to rip his political rivals, host dozens of public town halls and spin policy debates, all at high volume and for maximum exposure. The reality is that he is adept at tailoring answers to each audience, a tactic used by many politicians but which backfired last September when his remarks about working with Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver leaked out of a private fund-raiser in Colorado, endangering his political alliance with Essex County Democrats. And in national interviews, he repeats claims that have been debunked. Trenton watchers have learned to pay more attention to what he will not speak about publicly: His closed-door deliberations with Cabinet members, but also his discussions with high-ranking Democratic allies, whom he may criticize publicly while negotiating with them in private.