2014 NCAA Bracket Predictions: Picks for Every Matchup

My editors told me this year that they wanted me to make the official picks for Bleacher Report. I thought they should have gone with that one lady in the office who makes her picks based on which coach has the best hair, but I appreciated the honor.

This bracket, as expected, is wide open. So many possible Final Fours. So many upset possibilities, especially in the second round...err...Round of 32.

Before we get to my picks, know that last year I was dumb enough to go chalk with my Final Four. I'm still picking off the scars from the constant ribbing I got from radio hosts that week.

So this year I didn't even come close to going chalk. In fact, I have one coach in the Final Four who basketball fans love to make fun of. And he doesn't have great hair either.

Here are my picks, motivated by logic and that voice in the back of my head that said "don't go chalk, you sissy."

Top of the South Region

If UCLA makes it to the Sweet 16 against Florida, Anderson could mess up a lot of brackets with a strong performance against Florida. The 6'9" guard would be able to see over Florida's press.

The Bruins just beat Arizona in the Pac-12 tournament final, so don't underestimate their ability to knock off an elite team.

Biggest Upset: Stephen F. Austin over VCU

The Lumberjacks are used to defensive pressure—they see it in practice every day—and they've won 28 straight games. VCU will likely be playing without third-leading scorer Melvin Johnson, who injured his left knee and was on crutches after the A-10 semifinals.

Why Florida Will Make the Elite Eight:

Florida thrives on turnovers and UCLA rarely turns it over. Only problem is the Bruins will have a tough time slowing down the Gators on the other end.

Bottom of the South Region

C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Andrew Wiggins are great. Bairstow is the best college player in this part of the bracket.

Biggest Upset: New Mexico over Kansas

The Jayhawks rolled over the Lobos by 17 in mid-December. That was with a healthy Joel Embiid, who did the Dream Shake and dominated the matchup with Alex Kirk, outscoring the fellow 7-footer 18-5. Without Embiid, the Lobos will take advantage of KU's interior defense similar to what Iowa State did with Georges Niang in the Big 12 tournament.

Why New Mexico Will Make the Elite Eight:

The Lobos have two chips on their shoulder—last year's loss to Harvard and getting underseeded this year at No. 7.

Top of the East Region

Appling needs to play with confidence for the Spartans to get to the Final Four. He started to look like his old self again in the Big Ten tournament.

Biggest Upset: Michigan State over Virginia

The Cavaliers haven't seen a team with as much athleticism and beef inside since Tennessee. The Vols beat them by 35 on Dec. 30. This one will be closer, but the Spartans are the best team in this region despite the seed.

Why Michigan State Will Make the Elite Eight:

Sparty is back. It's a shame Virginia's prize as the last No. 1 seed was one of the nation's best teams when healthy as a No. 4 seed.

Bottom of the East Region

This part of the bracket is loaded with great point guards: UNC's Marcus Paige, UConn's Shabazz Napier, Providence's Bryce Cotton and Iowa State's Kane.

Kane's physicality will be tough for Paige to handle. The winner of that matchup will end up in the Elite Eight.

Biggest Upset: St. Joseph's over Villanova

The Hawks are playing their best basketball and the Wildcats just lost to Seton Hall. This should move this game to the Palestra if it happens.

Why Iowa State Will Make the Elite Eight:

You could argue the Cyclones are the most talented, most complete team in this part of the region. And Fred Hoiberg is the best in-game coach. If the Cyclones can make their threes against the Tar Heels, they'll end up in the Elite Eight.

Top of the West Region

B/R

Standout Player to Watch: Nick Johnson, Arizona

The Wildcats struggle to score when Johnson isn't making shots.

Biggest Upset: Oklahoma State over Gonzaga

I almost went chalk. Pretty weak; I know. There's some upset potential in that Round of 32 with whoever ends up playing Arizona. The Wildcats are really hard to score against, but both the Cowboy and the Zags have the weapons to get it done.

Why Arizona Will Make the Elite Eight:

Arizona-San Diego State will be a rematch from mid-November. Both teams are excellent on the defensive end. Just like that game, the 'Cats simply have a little more offensively.

Bottom of the West Region

Austin's length and athleticism is the key to Baylor's defense. For the Bears to get past Creighton, he'll need to be at his best.

Biggest Upset: Baylor over Wisconsin

Both Creighton and Wisconsin have a tough time matching up with teams that have post scorers and great length. The Bears have one of the most talented frontlines in the country with Austin, Cory Jefferson and Rico Gathers off the bench.

Why Baylor Will Make the Elite Eight:

Scott Drew made Elite Eights in 2010 and 2012. The every-other-year trend continues.

Elite 8 Matchup in the West: Arizona vs. Baylor

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona's Key to Victory: Perimeter shooting.

The Bears will likely go zone so that they can get Brady Heslip on the floor. If Arizona gets hot from deep and forces them to go man, Scott Drew may have to take Heslip off the court because there's no way he can guard Nick Johnson.

Baylor's Key to Victory: Playing inside-out.

Arizona's interior defense is intimidating, but the Bears are at their best when Jefferson and Austin are getting touches in the post.

The Biggest X-Factor: Brady Heslip.

Both teams are hard to score against at the rim. Heslip will be the best shooter on the floor. If he can get open looks, Baylor wins.

And Your Final Four Team Is... Baylor

The Wildcats just don't score as consistently as they did before Brandon Ashley's injury. They'll be playing a team in Baylor that can match their size and athleticism. And Arizona will not be able to match the Bears' shooting.

Top of the Midwest Region

B/R

Standout Player to Watch: Russ Smith, Louisville

Smith scored 21 points last year against Wichita State, but he needed 17 shots to get there and also had five turnovers. He's a wiser Russdiculous this year, and he'll need to be to knock off the Shockers.

Biggest Upset: Louisville over Wichita State

Congrats on the No. 1 seed, Shockers. Here's reward: A Sweet 16 game against the nation's hottest team.

It's a joke that the Cardinals are a No. 4 seed. If this is how it plays out, do not discount what the Shockers accomplished this year. They're a great team regardless of whether they get to the Final Four or not.

Why Louisville Will Make the Elite Eight:

Wichita State and Louisville are a fairly even matchup until you get to Montrezl Harrell. He'll be the difference against the Shockers.

Bottom of the Midwest Region

When Stauskas shoots the ball well, Michigan is really tough to beat. When he doesn't, the Wolverines are vulnerable. Just look at their last two losses for proof. He went 8-of-25 in those two games.

Biggest Upset: Tennessee over Duke

Duke has a tough time defending true big men. The Vols have two beasts in Jarnell Stokes and Jeronne Maymon.

Why Michigan Will Make the Elite Eight:

Michigan, like Duke, also struggles against legit bigs. The difference between Michigan and Duke is that John Beilein has better perimeter scorers. Unless the Vols can really muck it up, they're not going to be able to keep up with the Wolverines.

National Championship: Michigan State vs. Louisville

Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan State's Key to Victory: Getting the ball to the post.

It's easy to get stuck playing a helter-skelter game against Louisville, and the Spartans do like to play fast. But when they don't get a good shot initially, they'll need to make sure to get Adreian Payne his touches.

Louisville's Key to Victory: Russ Smith.

Gary Harris is a terrific defender and will try to take Smith out of the game. The Cards cannot win if Smith isn't producing.

The Biggest X-Factor: Denzel Valentine vs. Luke Hancock.

We saw last year how valuable Hancock was to Louisville. Valentine, like Hancock for that team, often gets overlooked. He's a terrific passer and will be a key extra ball-handler against Louisville's press.

And Your National Champion Is...Michigan State

Once again, this is a matchup of teams with great experience and legendary coaches. In the end, talent wins. And the Spartans have the best talent.