You Got Served: Taking stock of the Broncos after five games

Ted BartlettOct 9, 2012 1:00 PM

Happy Tuesday, friends. I wanted to take a few moments today to evaluate the overall state of affairs for the 2012 Broncos. When you’re a fan of a team, it’s easy to watch a few losses, and take them hard, and get all emotional about them. It can seem like all is lost, and that this guy should get benched, and that guy should get fired, and that if you were the GM, things would be different.

I’m a professional analyst, and a key part of the analyst skill set is the ability to be dispassionate, and just try to see things for what they are. I work with a guy who is a Steelers fan, and he keeps his security badge on a Steelers lanyard, and he has Steelers crap on his car, and in his office. That’s not the kind of Broncos fan I am. I’ve owned two Broncos jerseys in the last 10 years or so, and they’re both useless now. (Catler and Teebs, if you must know).

I’m not a fanatic – I started out being one as a kid, but in the course of becoming a widely-read writer about the Broncos, my approach to fanhood became kind of professional and dispassionate. This is like a job, and today, I’m going to do my job, and tell you what I think is going on with the Broncos without emotion.

I wrote an article before the regular season started saying that I thought the Broncos would be Super Bowl contenders in 2012. That opinion hasn’t changed a bit. In watching the two wins and three losses, what I’ve seen is a team that can match up physically with the best teams in the NFL, but which has made too many mistakes. The thing about mistakes is that you can stop making them. That’s more likely to happen as everybody gets more comfortable with what’s going on.

The following are some observations of the team, through five games.

1. The Broncos have already played their three toughest opponents, two of them on the road. It sucks to be 0-3 against them, but I think that the Broncos showed that they could beat any of them in a second game. In no game this year should the Broncos have walked off the field thinking, man, we got our asses kicked today. They’ve been out-executed (in all three losses), and out-schemed (against the Falcons and Patriots), but they haven’t been overmatched physically.

2. The offense is executing at a higher level all the time. That’s only going to be more true with the return of Chris Kuper, who can send Manny Ramirez back to his rightful place at Right Bench. I’ve been talking about proficiency lately, particularly vis-à-vis the offenses of the Texans and Patriots. What I mean by that is that the players in those offenses have been doing what they do for so long that a high level of execution is to be expected.

The Broncos aren’t as proficient yet as a team, and can’t possibly be, because they’re all pretty new to what they’re doing, at least in the sense of doing it together. In Malcolm Gladwell’s book Outliers, he talks about the "10,000-Hour Rule," which states that to be successful in any activity, you have to devote about 10,000 hours to practicing it. While guys like Demaryius Thomas, Zane Beadles, and Willis McGahee have undoubtedly practiced playing football for more than 10,000 hours in their lives, an offense is a collection of players who have to work together, and unit success is more important than individual success.

Obviously, the Broncos offense can’t practice together for 10,000 hours by season’s end. (There are only 8,760 hours in a calendar year.) Every hour that they do practice together, though, will make them better, and will promote increasing degrees of success.

3. The same thing is true of the defense, where the talent is better than the recent production. We have the same newness factor at play, and the talent isn’t top-notch in all areas, but the defense has been mostly solid this year.

Briefly, against the Patriots, I think that Jack Del Rio got his ass kicked. This year, the Broncos are switching their defensive front based on open or closed looks. What that means is that Derek Wolfe (or Malik Jackson) is assigned to line up on the TE side of the offense, and Elvis Dumervil (or Robert Ayers) is assigned to line up on the open side. If the offense flips their alignment pre-snap, the defensive front is switching with it.

In the Patriots game, the Broncos were caught switching quite a few times as Tom Brady was snapping the ball. I guarantee that Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick saw the policy of switching on film, and decided to exploit it. The better plan against New England would have been to not switch.

Also, the Patriots have a really strong tendency to run the ball when Tom Brady is under center. It never looked like the Broncos realized that, or were playing for the run when it was very likely coming. Further, I think it took Del Rio too long to give up on man coverage, once it became clear that the Broncos weren’t effective with it.

The thing is, though, knowledge and experience were gained. The ugliness of the execution also makes it easy to remember that the Patriots probably have the best offense in the NFL, in terms of both players and scheme. Getting gashed against them isn’t really a dishonorable thing; you just have to realize that to beat New England, you have to try to outscore them, and that means not punting on 4th-and-5 from the plus-39.

4. Joe Mays is the object of much hatred, but the Broncos don’t really have a better answer right now. I was listening to Sirius NFL Radio on Monday, and some dumbass Chiefs fan called in and tried to defend the fans’ cheering of Matt Cassel’s injury. The guy was saying that the Chiefs needed to upgrade on Cassel, and Pat Kirwan told him that they had no way to do so during the season.

Once you start the year, you play with who you’ve got. If Keith Brooking or Nate Irving were better than Mays, they’d have been starting since Day 1. Both may get a chance to replace him, but expecting them to be significantly better is probably unrealistic.

The right answer for 2012 is to either give up on the idea that Mays should be on the field for nickel downs, or get really comfortable with the idea of playing lots of zone coverage while he’s in the game. I take Del Rio’s point that having Mays out of the game makes the Broncos susceptible to the nickel run game, but asking him to cover anybody in man-to-man makes them more susceptible to the nickel pass game.

For 2013, yeah, upgrading the MLB position would be great, and I think it should be a high priority. For now, seeing Mays benched may make you feel better, but I don’t find it terribly likely that it improves much on the field. It will end the weekly tradition of my brother texting “I hate Joe Mays” though, and there’s that.

5. John Fox has a shortcoming or two, but we shouldn’t ignore the positive things he’s brought to the team. Fox is conservative, and he struggles with the whole arithmetic thing. One of my greatest desires, that’s never going to happen, would be for the Broncos to hire somebody who can run the numbers, and determine the best approaches to game management. Fox does things in an old-school way, because it’s how he was taught. You punt on fourth down and “trust your defense,” even if the evidence suggests that you shouldn’t trust your defense, because they’re getting mauled.

The best thing about Fox is that in one-plus seasons, he’s turned the Broncos from a soft team into a tough and physical one. That has been evident all season, but it really showed up against Pittsburgh and Oakland, who are pretty tough and physical teams themselves. I really do believe that this is going to maximize the competitiveness of the Broncos as we get into December and January, because that’s when soft teams historically fade, as I was just telling my friend Mike Shanahan.

That’s all I have for today, friends. Keep your heads up, and look for the Broncos to beat the overrated Chargers next Monday night.

How have the Broncos performed relative to your preseason expectations?

Better

Worse

About what I'd figured

1. I’m not in the arguing business, I’m in the saying what I think business.
2. I get my information from my eyes.

Ted debunks Mark Kiszla's article suggesting that the Broncos would be better off using a 3-4 than a 4-3

So far, a strong pattern has been repeated against top teams. If they're learning, its slow.

Posted by Ty Thompson on 2012-10-10 19:41:40

The pattern, since the Atlanta game against good teams, has been to start slow, get behind, then make what looks like a game of it during "garbage time." It seems like they are more interested in saving face than getting the W, and it makes me lose interest. Sure, each of these games turned out to be reasonably close, with hope up till the last few minutes, but they never really got it done in the end. You can say "well, we're just not quite there as a team yet, be patient," but I saw much more team cohesiveness and determination last year with a first year QB, revamped game plan, and all sorts of young players.

Posted by Ty Thompson on 2012-10-10 19:39:59

the other day I decided to tune into the Fan just to see what they were talking about, and I only made it 30 seconds before changing the channel out of frustration, becuase Al and D-Mac were arguing about this with a caller. My god, what I wouldn't give for people to understand what it means to properly play the odds when managing a football game. For all we hated about McD, you've got to admit that he had the understanding of how to manage a game and wasn't adraid to gamble when the odds were in his favor. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that he out-coached Belichick in our win over the patriots back in 2009... if only that wasn't also the high-water mark of his tenure in Denver!

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-10-10 11:36:44

You can't be blamed for buying a Cutler jersey... I've always been careful about buying jerseys, at least since my old Romo jersey back in the day. My rule has been not to buy a jersey until a guy's played at least two years for the Broncos and not to buy the starting QB's jersey, becuase everybody's got the QB's jersey (an exception was made for Elway, of course). For a while there that rule left me with Ryan Clady as the only option (I already had a Champ jersey), and Cutler looked like a franchise QB after his second year. Kinda says something about the state of the Bronco's roster about 4 to 7 years ago, huh? These days there are plenty of jersey's worth buying - Doom, Miller (I broke my two year rule for him), Bailey, Clady, Manning, Decker, Stokely, Thomas, and arguably Beadles (I think he's been quietly having a pro-bowl caliber season, at least in my opinion).

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-10-10 11:31:26

MississippiMudWalk What I mean is that the defeats the Broncos defense suffered were primarily ones of execution, not of physical capability. The Texans and Patriots have excellent offenses, and are going to win pretty consistently against most defenses. Denver did better against the run in the second half against Houston, and a little better against New England after making some adjustments.

A better plan against both teams the next time will yield better results.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2012-10-10 07:02:06

I got the Tebow jersey as a gift, and the Cutler jersey seemed like a good purchase at the time. I actually bought it the day before I went to Canton for Gary Zimmerman's enshrinement.

Believe me, lesson learned on jersey-buying.

Posted by Ted Bartlett on 2012-10-10 06:58:51

I hear you, but Moreno seems to be regressing. Still has the fumbling problem (wasn't just one), still shows poor vision finding running lanes, and his blocking skills haven't looked as good this year as they used to. All I ask is that he starts or backs up McGahee against the Chefs. Moreno kills the Chefs.

Posted by MississippiMudWalk on 2012-10-10 05:21:28

Alas, Trevathan is a rookie, which in Fox's world makes it even harder for him to touch the field before 4th down.

Re your Dumervil comment, I'm wondering what exactly Ted means by "haven't been overmatched physically". On our way to falling behind big in the Texans and Pats games, our front 7 seemed to be getting redirected quite forcefully by the O line.

Posted by MississippiMudWalk on 2012-10-10 04:05:53

Agreed Sad. MLB is the QB of the defense. His job is to sheppard plays to the strength of our defense. He does not NEED to make big plays...his main job (in my eyes anyway) is to contain gaps and be "safe" so to speak. Mays is an undisciplined player. His gap containment is dreadful, he is slow to diagnose plays, and is beat on coverage all the time.With so much spread happening, there is a greater need for speed in our LB corps. I would much rather take lumps with a guy like Trevathan or Irving. I know Danny is smaller, but he is fast and has a nose for the ball.Mays just does not seem to learn...he makes the same mistakes time and time again.Anyway, great article Ted. Always enjoy the read!

Posted by boydy2669 on 2012-10-09 23:23:08

I think its safe to buy a Von Miller #58 but not so safe to buy a Joe Mays # 51.

Posted by Charlie Kirkpatrick on 2012-10-09 21:03:23

Broncos are about where I thought they'd be. I'm a little disappointed in the defense, but, they had a lot of rebuilding to do (and still do), so I can't ask for much more. The offense is better than what I thought. I expected the offensive line to be a serious issue, but the style of Manning's play is masking any shortcomings. I still expect a win in the division with at least 10 wins at the end of the regular season. I'm hoping that Fox and crew land some great help on the defense.

Here's to hoping Manning stays healthy, and next year is an SB win.

THANK YOU JOHN ELWAY.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-10-09 21:01:31

I thought I read an article on the statistics of choosing to defer the choice to receive the kickoff to the second half when winning the coin toss and thanks to the search engine installed at IAOFM I found the article written by TJ in December 2009.http://www.itsalloverfatman.co...I found it interesting that after the esteemed Mike Klis questioned McDaniels reasoning of deferring the choice especially while facing the Colts and Manning and none other then Bill Belichick was cited in the article.The bottom line is I have noticed that the offense does seem to get an extra possession,one at the end of the first half and they receive the kickoff to start the second half. We saw in the game against Pittsburgh that the defense was on the field for what seemed like an hour or so. Of course it would help if the defense could get off the field on 3rd and long. If the Broncos had been able to stop the Patriots on 3rd and long on the 11 yard line on Sunday they would have gotten the ball back with around 3 minutes left on the clock on the first half, and were it not for a Thomas fumble the first drive of the game would have resulted in at least a field goal and momentum. Just another example of the old school mentality of John Fox and the refusal to think outside of the box. Hopefully they will put some consideration into the deferral.

Posted by Charlie Kirkpatrick on 2012-10-09 21:01:07

I agree with not standing by a guy on principle, but there's usually two reasons why a starter loses his job during the season (injury aside). There's the starter who didn't play up to expectations and gets benched, and the rookie who develops during the season and ends up outplaying the starter. The first scenario is almost always not so much an upgrade as it is simply the lesser of two evils. The second is nice, but really rare. If Trevathan or Irving had a significant chance of developing into better players than Mays, they would've gotten the start at the beginning of the season. I'd love to see that be the case, but It's simply not likely. The fact of the matter is, once you're in the season you've got about 95% of the team that you're ever going to have for that season.

Posted by Hercules_Rockefeller on 2012-10-09 20:26:37

Ted: regarding the jerseys, I follow what I've dubbed "JT's jersey buying rule". Never buy a jersey until the player signs his 2nd contract with your team. You won't end up with a Javon Walker, Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Tim Tebow, or Dale Carter jersey. Most 1-contract guys aren't exactly Broncos jerseys you would want, with a few notable exceptions (Darrent Williams, Brian Dawkins).

It often means there may not be a ton jerseys you can buy on the current team, but it all pays off in the long run.

Posted by JT Kimbell on 2012-10-09 19:30:37

What does Lance Ball brings to the table that Moreno doesn't? I hate watching handoffs to him because he never gets to the first down and also because we have Moreno, a more capable player out because of one fumble.

Posted by michaelml on 2012-10-09 17:55:10

I'm going to disagree with Ted on his stuff about Mays. I get the whole "once you start the season" stuff, but when I watch us play Mays is commonly standing out as being beat or being out of position. He's a weakness on the field and a detriment to our defense.

Much like Lance Ball, Fox and Co. have shown a penchant for sticking by "their guys" and to me that is the problem with Mays. They went all-in on him in the off season and are just sticking with him. I thought it was mis-management of our resources to give him a 4mil contract and I think it is dumb for them to keep him out there.

I'll also point out that in the one game that Mays was suspended, Brooking looked just fine. Did he make spectacular plays? Not really...but he had our guys lined up in the right positions and he was consistently in the right gap taking a decent angle. That's more than Mays gives us.As far as Trevathan goes, put him out there and see what happens. He played hard in the preseason and while he may make youthful mistakes at least he would have the ability to learn from them...Mays just keeps doing the same thing over and over and expecting things to work differently.

Posted by sadaraine on 2012-10-09 17:31:40

That falls in the execution category. You rush three, the other eight cover guys better execute the zone to perfection. This can improve as the season goes along, or the coaches need to learn what the team is really good at and make the right calls. This can also improve as the season goes along...

Posted by OutOfYourElement on 2012-10-09 16:29:11

These are teams we are likely to see again, assuming we make it to the post season. It is definitely preferable to have gotten this schooling from them in the first quarter of the season than in the playoffs.

Posted by FrankDay on 2012-10-09 16:22:44

Nicely done, Ted.

Doom got annihilated on many runs to his side (and not just on the "switches" you referenced), and we've seen this movie before. I'm curious if you or anyone else thinks it makes sense to move him to a situational pass rusher.

re: Joe Mays...On running plays it seems to me that Mays is in the wrong lane much of the time. If I recall correctly, during NE's ridiculous 3rd and 17 conversion, Mays wasn't even in the picture. In this novice's view, he has exhibited little if any instinct for the position so I would prefer to see one of the younger guys get a chance to prove himself. I can't imagine that Irving or Trevathan would play any worse. And if that proves to be the case after two or three games, at least Brooking has a nose for the ball even if he's getting long in the tooth. I think Del Rio sort of adopted Mays as his pet project because he likes his "thump." But I predict (and certainly hope) that he will minimize his reps going forward.

Posted by rct930 on 2012-10-09 15:58:31

Great take on being outschemed by ATL and NE. What I found heartening about it was the adjustments that were made. Granted, it would have been nice to have tem earlier, but hey, they were made eventually.

Posted by DCJ1 on 2012-10-09 15:57:32

Failing (or losing) in of itself isn't necessarily bad.

The real question is, is our team capable of learning from its mistakes and not repeating them?

If so, then we have a real legitimate chance to be strong contenders at the end of the season.

Posted by QDoc on 2012-10-09 15:52:46

I do think the Broncos got their ass kicked in their losses but it didn't make me want to panic. The ass kickings were not that bad as ass kickings go and they weren't entirely caused by talent issues. Also, they occurred at the beginning of the season and the playoffs are at the end of the season.

On the encouraging side, the passing game is on pace to set franchise records for yards and TDs and they are still in the process of gelling. For 2013, a solid non-flashy FA pickup at LB along the lines of what Elway has done at other positions would go along way toward improving the defense while freeing the team to focus on the longer term in the draft.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2012-10-09 15:52:34

Great article Ted. I think the problem you highlight with JDR getting his ass kicked is that there is not a leader on the field who can make those adjustments either.

Posted by Steve Williams on 2012-10-09 15:34:07

Thank you Ted, your analysis always calms me down :). i'm still just frustrated with our third and long defense. It just doesn't seem like the defense ever gets off the field in those situations early in the game.

Posted by yi on 2012-10-09 14:56:41

That is an excellant to-date analysis, Ted. I find your perspective to be a true compass to follow. Knee jerk reactions can vent built-up emotions but generally do not solve the problems. We have been in every game and with a little tweaking here and there those mistakes will disapear. It is so refreshing to see that most of the pieces are in place and that we are heading in the right direction!

Posted by archball on 2012-10-09 14:43:51

What's really important is that for the first time in a while the Broncos have franchise cornerstones on both offense (Peyton Manning) and defense (Von Miller).

Posted by RockyMtnThunder on 2012-10-09 14:04:10

I voted as about what I'd figured. I was hoping we'd come away with at least one win out of Atlanta, Houston and NE. Atlanta and Houston are better than they were last year. NE is always tough and they seem to play their best ball against us (would have liked them to tank their game against us rather than the Cardinals). If we can beat SD next week, then my prediction going into the Bye week will still be 3-3. After that, my prediction of 12-4 is still a decent possiblity. If not, maybe we go 11-5 or 10-6. I estimate SD to be 10-6 by the end of the season. If we split the series with them, then we could be 11-5 and they could be 11-5 and then it'll come down to tie breakers. I estimate KC to be 7-9, and Oak to be 6-10.

Posted by Rollston Frangopoulos on 2012-10-09 13:49:59

Thanks for the much needed perspective, Ted. I was definitely in the camp moping around Sunday evening, but there really isn't any shame in losing to three of the best teams in the league. Seeing PMFM out there can make it tough to remember that this is still a work in progress. They're only going to get better. Hopefully San Diego finds out the hard way Monday night.