Back On Track

I mentioned in the comment section yesterday that 2018 will most likely end up as one of my top three most exhausting trading years. 2008 was rough for pretty much anyone, 2010 was difficult but we made it through just fine and in the green. 2018 on the other hand, at least up to date, has been just outright annoying. And the main culprit squarely points at realized volatility in both the short term and medium term.

Fortunately I grabbed a pretty early entry on the E-Mini yesterday which allowed my ISL to remain a good distance away from yesterday’s second spike low. Price has now advanced to 1R MFE which allows me to raise my stop to break/even. We are back on track!

Talking about annoying – why in the world am I trading bonds in the first place? I should seek help.

Crude on the other hand is making us proud. Did any of you subs grab that entry right after the roll over? I really hope so as it’s been nothing but manna from heaven since. I’m up to 4R and my trail now sits at 3.7R.

Our Dollar campaign also continues to plug along and in the right direction! I actually think this one has more meat in it, let’s give it time. Trail here goes to 2R now and our MFE was almost at 3R.

My general sentiment regarding my stop out on the USD/JPY can’t be repeated here as this is a family friendly trading lair. Well, at least it was at 1.5R, so we’re out in the green. But I have an inkling what comes next will greatly thwart the current advance, and thus I’m rather miffed about this overnight stop run. On the other hand given most the above I should truly count my blessings.

Shameless Plug

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Now I completely disagree with this advance in the gold futures based on what I’m seeing over in the Yen (which continues to drop). Which is why I’m grabbing a short position here with a stop> 1216.

Alright, more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.

GG Quite often you must give a short time to work. Not being stubborn. I nailed last January and was slightly underwater before the Dumpus. You must hang in there GG when overbought monthly — weekly — daily with negative divergences and recent distribution. Banking Index showing weakness along with small caps.etc ….
JULIE

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Guys $NYMOT is below 0 —- $NYSI is below it’s 10 sma Market breath is very weak. I repeat do not run scared if short. The recent topping tails point to distribution. Also reference HD’s chart below pointing out 52 week highs with less than 50% of stocks above their 200 sma. I am not even down 1% in short.No way am I going to be run off ! Patience !
JULIE

Mark Shinnick

This snapback would sure be a nice setup for more downside. Long small tna, but stop and reverse very close at hand.

RW September is the biggest month of the year for trucking and maritime. (Christmas) I checked with ILWU Local 8 (Portland) Longshoreman. Longshore hours worked for September were average in Portland and West Coast Ports
JULIE

Mark Shinnick

Corollary; constant vigilance and willingness to fight back.

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Well said Mark
JULIE

bankwalker

Indecision is the key to flexibility …

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

BW Always remember …. If a girl likes a boy and the boy has not asked her out yet ……She has patience ! The trap is being set ! LOL!
JULIE

Fleet week at same time, the blue angels even scorch over the park for shits and giggles….keep those high bluegrass fans happy…https://fleetweeksf.org/

so if your wife, loved one, mistress, husband etc. wants to visit, time it around this. She can shop and you can do lots of other stuff…..you might not need any pot, use the wind(feel the force) for best second hand high

Mark Shinnick

Volume picking up drv, and RE staples like Simon on the defensive.

bankwalker

Your patience looks genius … at least for right now …

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

RW Did You Say SHOP ? Well Yeah !
JULIE

Mark Shinnick

SH…great heads-up, thanks.

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

Back from lunch!
two days without sun over, I’d never make it in Seattle.
😉

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

did he say GG?
😉

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

all bets are OFF.
technically yeah, I made my plan.

later did I find out Kramer OPENED HIS MOUTH and said ‘buy’.
dam you Schrodinger.

SF fleet enema week? just for shits and giggles? Puns intended, I assume……………….

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

All the ladies luv my high yield.

Wave_surfer

35 years of falling interest rates and it looks like that trend may be over.
If we have 10 or 20 years of rising interest rates, that might lead to some ‘effects’
Since it is such a long trend, it has been inside the thick purple crayon for a few years, If you know what I mean.

BW A great show. She said that Jackie Gleason was great as a man and human being.Gleason never forgot where he came from and he and Paul Newman were two of the greatest Hollywood philanthropists to live
JULIE

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

time check.

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

LOL! Hilarious GG Great sense of humor. My husband too ! He is always leaving me hilarious notes and stories.Your wife and family are fortunate as I am
JULIE

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

I want to be a philanthropist…

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

all the ladies LUV philanthropy.

http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

yeah about that….

I’m unemployed and I live with my parents
😉

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

GG And a sense of humor. You are just like my husband.i give it right back to him. He teases me and I tease him back. Sometimes it’s all evening. Love it GG 1
JULIE

My favorite part of Moles post: ” 2018 on the other hand, at least up to date, has been just outright annoying. And the main culprit squarely points at realized volatility in both the short term and medium term.” he he he

In the past, the FED would jawbone and metals would catch a cold…. now they are actually raising rates so I am just not fighting that as a concept. In my mind assets need to drop first. Some air needs to come out of housing and stocks, and THEN…. in my mind they pull out the stops again and metals would rip but maybe from 900-1000$ gold etc. That has just been my plan (view) whatever to stick with.

sold the rest 27.9, now we better bounce. RSI looks to be diverging on ES

HD

The EW, has been a good year buyers and sellers following the waves. Clear trends since April low. 3 primary, 2 corrective (5 waves) Alternation showing now. Easy part of wave is done. They won’t make it easy going forward. Time spent in correction interesting IMO.

it will be cheaper to buy soon…
this move was so easy to see coming a caveman like me could see it a mile away…..

HD

excellent! Those were our targets last week, before that curve ball they threw, I am flat and happy. VIX 15.

ridingwaves

its national taco day….what would you expect….

Mark Shinnick

Well, as yet no real bounce at various support levels here….just hanging, often suggestive of continuation.

BKXtoZERO

They only come when you leaaast expect it. Spanish Inq

Mark Shinnick

Yeah…”they” are keenly attuned to their victim’s vulnerability.

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Guys This pullback could be deeper than most expect. There were a lot of red flags and the canaries in the coal mine were chirping louder every day. I would not rush to go long you might get badly scorched
JULIE

Mark Shinnick

Is your sh a position type trade?

Yoda

yeah stay away from any risk on trades

Yoda

We haven’t seen a big phat sell-off like this one in a while….

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Hi Mark Yes

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

You got it Yoda !
JULIE

Darkthirty

file:///C:/Users/Front%2002/Pictures/pickin%20up%20pennies.jpg You know how us scalpers play…

lol, you make me laugh sometimes…2850 is still in play.maybe overshoot….tvix is still in play, could see spike to 38 at bull poop exhaustion…

ridingwaves Mark Shinnick 2 days ago
could be a June like down move to 2850, can’t discount that….a move that would confuse dow theory bulls….
ridingwaves 2 days ago
looks at trusty auction calendar…..hmmmm….this would seem to be a good place for draw down Thursday…30 days to push towards mid terms…..

As you guys can tell the scalping signals get completely overwhelmed on a day like this. It’s usually best to ignore them and wait for a solid spike low. We are at VWAP now so this will be the big test going into the close.

Gold managed to do f.all today. Grr. Not good.
Last chance for the bulls is tomorrow. If GC drops tomorrow below today’s low , I expect a world of pain for bugs.

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Shorting USO PMO curling over and below 15.75 support
JULIE

BKXtoZERO

yup

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Yoda SLV Very strong support 13.64 today’s low 13.66. A bounce tomorrow from this level would be an entry Gonna watch SLV on the 60 min chart for a reversal candle at this level Possible bull flag Yoda don’t give up on the metals
JULIE

ridingwaves

it is NFP tomorrow…any weakness overnight will give fuel for the london and NY fix boys to power it down

Yoda

Let’s hope you’re right ’cause it will piss me off if I get stopped out.

Julie 35 – 25 – 36

Yoda GLD 113.09 is the line in the sand A bearish close below 113.09 I would be out. GLD holding important 113.31 Don’t throw the towel in yet Yoda
JULIE

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