Race to the bottom on GOP family values

John MaginnisLouisiana Politics

Published: Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 9:26 a.m.

Last Modified: Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 9:26 a.m.

Perhaps never have state Democrats been so excited about a candidate they won’t vote for, or perhaps even against, as when former Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor qualified at the last minute to run against Sen. David Vitter in the Republican primary.

Most Democrats don’t expect the GOP latecomer to defeat Vitter in the Aug. 28 primary, though few would be sad if he does. They would be thrilled, however, if Vitter barely survives — shamed, battered, lighter in his warchest and vulnerable to being finished off in November.

But the question now has turned to which Republican gets shamed and battered more. The Traylor camp looks to play on the fear of the unknown about Vitter, which might become known before November and cost Republicans the election. Asks Traylor’s consultant Roy Fletcher, “Where is the other shoe and when is it dropping?”

Turns out that other shoe, or a rack of them, has come crashing in Traylor’s closet. The Monroe News Star reported this week on the candidate’s “tangled family web” that includes the claim by Rep. Noble Ellington that Traylor “was significantly involved” in the cause of his divorce from the late Peggy McDowell, who later married Traylor. Traylor disputes the claim, saying the relationship began after the Ellingtons divorced.

The paper further reports that Traylor is currently romantically involved with the estranged wife of his stepson Ryan Ellington, who, along with his brother, is suing Traylor to turn over bank records on their mother’s estate. Whew.

The story is running wild on the Internet as further evidence of Louisiana family values, which make the allegations about Vitter look quaint by comparison.

Beyond the mudfest, the conditions of the race favor Vitter, starting with the first party primary, which will also be the last. He dodged a cannonball last month when the Legislature, poised to return federal elections to the open primary system this fall, opted instead to put off that change until the 2012 cycle.

How much more dangerous it would be for Vitter to be opposed by both Traylor and Melancon in an open primary, before all voters, instead of being able to take them on one at a time. It further aids Vitter for the primary to be for Republicans only, who are most supportive of his issues and forgiving of his foibles, or what they know of them so far.

Even if Traylor can raise the money for a statewide media buy to return the focus on character to his opponent, will that be enough for the religious right, the tea party crowd and the business community to turn their backs on ittere senator, who has been as solid and dependable a vote in the U.S. Senate as they could ask for?

The best outcome for Democrats would be an all-out Republican brawl, resulting in a pyrrhic victory for Vitter in the primary that would level the playing field in the fall. But it might not turn out that way. If Traylor’s best shot at Vitter — questioning his judgment and fitness to serve — is not enough to beat him, it could serve to inoculate him on the character issue for the general election. Melancon and the national Democrats surely would turn up the volume on the Republican’s personal issues, but voters, having heard that stuff already, could be ready to move on in November to national issues, to Vitter’s advantage.

The new Republican player on the field might only change the game so much. Personalities aside or not, the fall campaign figures to be a referendum on the Democrats’ control of Washington. Despite that Melancon is conservative to moderate, pro-gun, anti-abortion, happily married and on record against the new federal healthcare law, his chief political liability is summed up in three words that appeared in a 2008 headline in The Courier: “Melancon backs Obama.”

If you haven’t seen it, you will, plenty, before the election. That and his vote for the president’s stimulus bill last year could be more baggage than the Democrat can carry to November.

Yet there is a lot of campaigning, even voting, to go before then. For the next five weeks, the Democrats are counting on Traylor doing more damage to Vitter than Melancon has so far.

John Maginnis is a statewide political writer and author of “The Last Hayride.” His website is www.lapolitics.com.

<p>Perhaps never have state Democrats been so excited about a candidate they won't vote for, or perhaps even against, as when former Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor qualified at the last minute to run against Sen. David Vitter in the Republican primary.</p><p>Most Democrats don't expect the GOP latecomer to defeat Vitter in the Aug. 28 primary, though few would be sad if he does. They would be thrilled, however, if Vitter barely survives — shamed, battered, lighter in his warchest and vulnerable to being finished off in November.</p><p>But the question now has turned to which Republican gets shamed and battered more. The Traylor camp looks to play on the fear of the unknown about Vitter, which might become known before November and cost Republicans the election. Asks Traylor's consultant Roy Fletcher, “Where is the other shoe and when is it dropping?”</p><p>Turns out that other shoe, or a rack of them, has come crashing in Traylor's closet. The Monroe News Star reported this week on the candidate's “tangled family web” that includes the claim by Rep. Noble Ellington that Traylor “was significantly involved” in the cause of his divorce from the late Peggy McDowell, who later married Traylor. Traylor disputes the claim, saying the relationship began after the Ellingtons divorced.</p><p>The paper further reports that Traylor is currently romantically involved with the estranged wife of his stepson Ryan Ellington, who, along with his brother, is suing Traylor to turn over bank records on their mother's estate. Whew.</p><p>The story is running wild on the Internet as further evidence of Louisiana family values, which make the allegations about Vitter look quaint by comparison.</p><p>Beyond the mudfest, the conditions of the race favor Vitter, starting with the first party primary, which will also be the last. He dodged a cannonball last month when the Legislature, poised to return federal elections to the open primary system this fall, opted instead to put off that change until the 2012 cycle.</p><p>How much more dangerous it would be for Vitter to be opposed by both Traylor and Melancon in an open primary, before all voters, instead of being able to take them on one at a time. It further aids Vitter for the primary to be for Republicans only, who are most supportive of his issues and forgiving of his foibles, or what they know of them so far.</p><p>Even if Traylor can raise the money for a statewide media buy to return the focus on character to his opponent, will that be enough for the religious right, the tea party crowd and the business community to turn their backs on ittere senator, who has been as solid and dependable a vote in the U.S. Senate as they could ask for?</p><p>The best outcome for Democrats would be an all-out Republican brawl, resulting in a pyrrhic victory for Vitter in the primary that would level the playing field in the fall. But it might not turn out that way. If Traylor's best shot at Vitter — questioning his judgment and fitness to serve — is not enough to beat him, it could serve to inoculate him on the character issue for the general election. Melancon and the national Democrats surely would turn up the volume on the Republican's personal issues, but voters, having heard that stuff already, could be ready to move on in November to national issues, to Vitter's advantage.</p><p>The new Republican player on the field might only change the game so much. Personalities aside or not, the fall campaign figures to be a referendum on the Democrats' control of Washington. Despite that Melancon is conservative to moderate, pro-gun, anti-abortion, happily married and on record against the new federal healthcare law, his chief political liability is summed up in three words that appeared in a 2008 headline in The Courier: “Melancon backs Obama.”</p><p>If you haven't seen it, you will, plenty, before the election. That and his vote for the president's stimulus bill last year could be more baggage than the Democrat can carry to November.</p><p>Yet there is a lot of campaigning, even voting, to go before then. For the next five weeks, the Democrats are counting on Traylor doing more damage to Vitter than Melancon has so far.</p><p>John Maginnis is a statewide political writer and author of “The Last Hayride.” His website is www.lapolitics.com.</p>