Australian CPI held steady +0.4% on quarter in Q2 vs consensus of +0.5%. On year, inflation +2.4% vs +2.5% in Q1 and forecasts of +2.5%, and in line with the RBA's target of 2%-3%. Prices increased for apparel, footwear and health care, although transportation costs fell. AUD-USD (FXA) -0.4% to $0.9255. (PR)

Either a change in trend or a chance for shorts to reload, the aussie (FXA+1.5%) is having maybe its best session of the year after RBA minutes suggest policymakers are considering a pause in the easing cycle. A number of rate cuts and a substantial devaluation of the currency are working their way through the system, and the central bankers note the inflation outlook is now "slightly higher." Traders are now pricing in a 54% chance of an August cut, down from 65% a day ago.

Japanese stocks jump early after a three-day weekend, as the Nikkei rises 0.8%. Meanwhile, South Korean and Chinese shares trade fractionally lower and Australian equities rise modestly after RBA minutes indicate the central bank believes the inflation outlook "could still provide some scope for further easing" if necessary, although "lags" in the monetary policy transmission channel may make a wait-and-see approach appropriate for the time being. The aussie (FXA) is at $0.9158 at last check.

The tumbling Australian dollar (FXA) falls below $0.90 for the first time in about 3 years amid rising unemployment and as Beijing's mandarins dial back even further their expectations for economic growth. The aussie's 1.6% decline today has the currency off about 15% vs. the greenback in the last 3 months. The unhedged Australian stock index ETF (EWA) -1.7% premarket.

Australia's unemployment rate rose to the highest in almost four years in June, increasing to 5.7% from 5.6% in May, although the number of people employed climbed by 10,300 on month. Full-time jobs -4,400, part-time employment +14,800. The "shallow uptrend in unemployment that's been in place for a while is continuing, consistent with an economy that's running below trend," says economist Michael Blythe. Shares (EWA) +1.2%, Australian dollar (FXA) +1.3% to $0.9295. (PR)

The struggling loonie (FXC) should be about done going down and could rise back to parity with the greenback in 2014, according to CIBC. The loonie has slid along with the aussie (FXA) this year thanks to disappointing global growth and the fall in commodity prices, but that's where the comparison ends, says CIBC. The countries are at different stages of the business cycle and each with a different export focus: Oz is China, meaning iron ore and coal, and Canada more tied to oil, vehicles, parts, and machinery.

The dollar (UUP) and the euro (FXE) should continue as the favored currencies among developed economies (they're currently #1 and #2 YTD), says UBS, thanks to stronger U.S. growth and eased political risk in the EU. Their gains will come at the expense of the safe-haven Swiss franc (FXF) and the commodity-linked aussie (FXA).

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia has left its benchmark overnight cash-rate target at a record low of 2.75%, citing below-average growth at home and abroad. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens also noted that the Australian dollar remains high but could "depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth." Stevens reiterated that inflation could "provide some scope for further easing" if necessary. The Aussie (FXA) is -0.7% at $0.9175. (PR)

CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust is designed to track the price of the Australian Dollar net of Trust expenses, which are expected to be paid from interest earned on the deposited Australian Dollars.
See more details on sponsor's website