After learning that Carol, an original member of Rick’s group of survivors, was the person responsible for killing ill-stricken allies Karen and David, Rick took it upon himself to exile Carol from the group, without any input from the other survivors. It was a gutsy choice, and one that very likely won’t sit well with key members of Rick’s group — assuming they find out the whole truth.

Let’s take a minute to predict how Carol’s exit might play out on tonight’s episode, titled “Internment.”

Prediction #1: Rick Will Lie About Carol
He could just come out and say it: Carol was the person who killed Karen and David, and she needed to be stopped. But Rick withholds truths from the group from time to time, if he thinks it’s in their best interest. As Rick reenters the leadership phase of his post-apocalypse life, I expect he’ll fall back on similar tactics, especially in as delicate a situation as this one. Carol was loved within the group. Tarnishing her reputation as a murderer doesn’t seem like it’s in Rick’s, or anybody’s, best interest. I think it’s likelier that Rick will say Carol died out on the field. He’ll create a fictional “hero’s death,” one that keeps everyone’s fond memories of her intact. Rick’s earned enough goodwill within the group that few would question his story.

Prediction #2: The Truth Will Come Out
If for no other reason than “The Walking Dead” is a drama and, as such, drama will happen. What better way to create a dramatic situation than to see Rick get caught in a lie? Whether that happens tonight or further down the line is the only real question: either the group finds out up-front about Carol’s true nature, or they find out in the future. It’s a matter of when, not if.

Prediction #3: Daryl Will Find Out First
The reformed bad boy was Carol’s closest friend. He’s going to be very devastated to hear about what happened to Carol. If Rick tells the truth about what happened, it won’t sit well with Daryl. If Rick lies about what happened, Daryl will want to go out and find her remains, pay his respects to a fallen friend. And if that happens, it’ll take no time at all for Daryl to realize what really happened to Carol — and that’s very much a worst-case scenario for Rick.

Prediction #4: There Will Be No Carol This Week
Not to say we won’t ever see her again. We will absolutely see her again. Her story is more interesting than anybody else’s right now. The writers won’t just drop such a compelling character. But for Carol’s exit to have maximum impact, she’ll need to walk away from the main story for at least an episode or two, much like how the writers have kept The Governor out of the picture since the season three finale. And, hey, speaking of The Governor …

Prediction #5: Carol Will Meet The Governor
It’s a no-brainer, if you’ll forgive the pun. We need a way for the Governor to reenter the story. We need a way for Carol to reenter the story. Why not kill two birds with one stone? Carol knows the Governor by reputation, if not on sight. The Governor knows nothing about Carol, but could easily find out if he’s quietly tucked into a group, and overhears where Carol came from. There are many ways that a Carol-Governor scenario could play out — they could become friends, they could remain foes — but every outcome is compelling, tense television.

What do you think will happen on “The Walking Dead” tonight? Tell us in the comments section below!