Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.

Are bonds down that much? I don't follow....I'm in CDs...haven't trusted bonds for years.... and have only a very small bond allocation. But I thought the decline was (at least to date) quite minor, following a long run-up.

It depends on when they were bought. As bonds fell I had to put more money into the fund to keep the asset allocation 60/40, they kept falling. Total bond is my largest single fund it is up .80% YTD. Short bonds are up 1.25% go figure.

With yesterday's dividends I'm back in the black. I subtract tax when I figure return, I'm not permitted by law to contribute to a tax deferred account.

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?

I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?

I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

Actually, foreign currencies are your biggest losers. Foreign stocks have done OK in local currency, but you have to count the gains in US$.

We don't know where we are, or where we're going -- but we're making good time.

Uncle Pennybags wrote:
I just looked - all my bond funds are up for one-year returns. Only one is down (-10bp, which to me = 0) YTD. What bonds are you holding?

I doubled my total bond (VBTLX) holdings in March and April of this year when I consolidated foreign bonds into all US. I'm down a basis point or two at this point in time. The scary part is it is time to buy more bonds to keep my 60/40.

Foreign stocks are now my biggest losers.

Mine too. Down ~3% for one year but up considerably YTD based on VG reporting.

I am 40 (equity)/60 and I've been buying selling stocks to eat and buy bonds for a couple of years now.

kenyan wrote:Foreign stocks are still ahead of domestic stocks for the year, even in US dollars. Emerging markets are the laggards, but Total International is still beating TSM.

Endpoints, endpoints all is endpoints. Source: Morningstar
Want to prove international stocks suck? Use the last three months. Total [U.S.] Stock Market, blue. Total International Stock Index, orange.
Want to prove they rule? Use year-to-date.
Want to prove they suck? Use the last 12 months.
Want to prove they suck big-time? Use the last 5 years.
Want to prove they rule? Use 2000-2009 inclusive.
Want to prove it makes little difference? Use "all available data" for the oldest standard international index. Annualized: 6.07% for U.S., 5.31% for EAFE.
Want to prove international stocks suck? Use the Dimson & al. data for 1900 through 2014, inclusive: annualized real returns, dividends reinvested, inflation-corrected, 6.5% for the United States, 4.4% for the rest of the world.

Last edited by nisiprius on Mon Aug 10, 2015 5:09 pm, edited 7 times in total.

Sector rotation.
Cover your shorts.
Buying opportunity.
Invest in China now.
Stock pickers market.
Stocks are over-sold.
Time to add some gold.
Catching falling knives.
This time it's different.
Avoid bonds at all costs.
We are in an oil contango.
Get some money off the table.
Time for some internationals.
Plenty of European opportunities.
Get ready to deploy your dry powder.
Don't underestimate Emerging Markets.
There is always a bull market somewhere.
You can make money or you can make excuses but you can't do both.
If you are not having fun with this market then you are in the wrong investments.

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died

I liquidated to cash 2 months ago. The buying opportunity China will cause could be a once in a decade opportunity, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie).

On a macro level this has been fueled by the Chinese buying up huge forex reserves and paying with cheap exports, and they aren't buying but they aren't exactly dumping either.

Most economists agree the devaluation will be necessary but it's going to rile markets in the short and medium term. And American companies are going to have difficulty reaching that export market. So all told this probably bodes well for consumer defensives / utilities.

If the Chinese government is looking to intentionally rile up markets--- well, there's a lot they can still do.

broadstone wrote:I liquidated to cash 2 months ago. The buying opportunity China will cause could be a once in a decade opportunity, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie).

2009 was less than 10 years ago...

This buying opportunity will be greater than that?

By the way, I hope you don't disappear from this site if the markets go back up...

We've had a lot of people claiming they went 100% to cash.... in 2011... in 2012... in 2013.... in2014... And then as the market continued to climb, they just stopped posting for some reason.

Also, please post when you get back into the market... I'll go ahead and let you claim you got out 2 months ago... but please real-time post when you get back in.

I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? So let's assume your personal investment strategy is "such and such" with an allocation of "such and such" with purchases at "such and such" intervals --- to move those purchases up because of a drop is market timing right?

The S&P started the year at ~2058. The low today was ~2052. Wouldn't it be more apt to say the market is in free-"flat" (not counting dividends/inflation). My AA is still holding steady with all the price flatness for the year, so I don't even have to re-balance. >yawn<

ray.james wrote:It was just 1.3%?
People are getting excited about 1-2% after 100% continuous run-up . Desperate times
Emerging markets have PE of 12. Developed markets close to 15. Pretty good valuations.

US Total Market was down 3% over the last 2 days and Emerging Markets down 4-5%.
I bought some of both at 11:15AM today.

grettman wrote:I want check if I have this right: When we have drops like we have had recently, initating a transaction based on that fact, is market timing is it not? So let's assume your personal investment strategy is "such and such" with an allocation of "such and such" with purchases at "such and such" intervals --- to move those purchases up because of a drop is market timing right?

Yes, it is market timing. Not everyone's IPS is that restrictive. My IPS schedules me to buy a certain amount each quarter. I schedule it at the last day of the quarter in this case 9/30, but if I see an opportunity before then, I buy.
Do I think a 3% dip is a buying opportunity? Yes.
Do I know if this is really the lowest point in the quarter? Of course not!

Unless some of you are talking ETFs, you get closing time prices if you bought index funds.

Great move!

I always love it and brag about it when I go to the store and they have 1- 3% sales also.

LOL, I am not bragging. I only posted my trade, to poke fun at the title of this thread. I think this thread is a bit tongue in cheek as people always bring it back from the dead whenever the market dips a few percent. I do use ETFs.

Sweet, I balled out of Vanguard gold 10 months ago. I'm getting back in when gold is $800 but it will be bullion coins.

My biggest loser is bonds, I have real losses over the last year. Being retired I have 40% bonds too.

Are bonds down that much? I don't follow....I'm in CDs...haven't trusted bonds for years.... and have only a very small bond allocation. But I thought the decline was (at least to date) quite minor, following a long run-up.

What decline? Where are the losers? What losses?

My core bond fund, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade, is up YTD. In quickly looking at Vanguard's bond offerings, I didn't see any intermediate-term or short-term bond fund that is negative YTD.

"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link:Getting Started

As for "U.S. stocks in freefall", I love this nostalgia thread reborn periodically. This reminds me not to worry. Is another "taper tantrum" about to happen? I sure don't know, but more importantly why should I even care?

"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link:Getting Started