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The past year and a half has seen an impressive slide in the global economy. Global GDP growth is expected to have ebbed to its lowest rate since the great recession this year, with some regions nearing recession and others increasingly fearing it. The primary factor is the strongly depressing effect on global trade and investment that has resulted from sharp increases in economic policy uncertainty associated with both trade policy conflicts and Brexit. [more]

The Chinese economy has been driven by a key theme in each of the last few decades. Exports was the theme for the 2000s, to begin with a WTO outsider and grew to become the world's biggest exporter. Public investment was the theme for the 2010s. Today, China owns two-thirds of the world's high speed railways by length. 2020-2030 is set to be the consumption decade. [more]

It was not until 2017, that cryptocurrencies really gained global attention as the price of bitcoin surged to almost 20000. When Facebook announced libra in June 2019, the talk hit all levels of society and politics. [more]

Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. [more]

Passenger numbers at German airports recently fell for the first time since December 2017. The decline is largely due to economic reasons, such as the cyclical slowdown and lower supply due to airline bankruptcies. Air travel is increasingly coming into the focus of climate-policy regulation. Traffic at regional airports may be hit most. In contrast, large airports are likely to see passenger numbers increase further. “Flight shame” looks set to remain a niche phenomenon. [more]

As German policymakers plan to do without nuclear power, coal and lignite in the future, natural gas remains the last traditional source for power generation. And since Germany targets complete climate neutrality by 2050, natural gas will also be a transitional source of energy – nothing more and nothing less. The completion and operation of Nord Stream II is clearly in line with the declared goals of German energy policy. Nord Stream II will improve supply security and pipeline gas, such as that delivered by Nord Stream II, is more environmentally friendly than LNG. [more]

In the lending and deposit-taking business with retail customers, there are substantial differences between the federal states. 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, per capita loan volumes in east Germany are significantly lower than in the west. The latter, in turn, is characterised by a certain north-south divide. Savings banks have a market share of 25-35% throughout the country, whereas cooperative banks have a much stronger presence in the south and west than in the east and north. The large banks achieve an above-average market share of 20-25% in the city states and east Germany. The spread between the federal states is smaller for deposit volumes than for credit volumes. Primarily the savings banks, cooperative banks and other commercial banks have to cope with a considerable deposit overhang and thus an &quot;investment plight&quot; in the negative interest rate environment. In east Germany, the deposit overhang is particularly large. Due to digitisation, changes to the established regional focuses might now be possible. [more]

Trading volumes in foreign exchange instruments have increased significantly across the board in 2019 compared to the last global FX survey three years ago. Surprisingly, the pivotal role of London as the main trading location was reconfirmed, despite fears around the impact of Brexit. Yet a general move to central clearing might challenge this after the UK leaves the EU. [more]

An increasing number of European countries have set zero net emission targets and the ambition to rapidly lower greenhouse gas emissions is growing. Although there has been significant investor focus on the power and transport sectors, there has been very limited attention on how to decarbonise the residential and industrial sectors. [more]

Heating and cooling represents around half of all EU energy use and almost a quarter of all EU emissions. If European countries are serious about substantially reducing emissions, emissions from heating will need to be tackled. James Brand, Head of European Utilities Research, shares his insights. [more]