Don't look here for a projection on Tom Corbett's bid for re-election in 2014.

But according to a new poll of Pennsylvania voters, the first-term Republican governor may be looking at a tougher re-election climb than any of his two-term predecessors have faced.

The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll shows, for example, that only 20 percent of responding registered voters feel Corbett's performance in office to date merits his re-election, as compared to 69 percent who believe that it is time for a change.

By another barometer, Corbett's job performance measurements have skidded to a new low, with only 16 percent of the poll's respondents rating Corbett as an "excellent" or "good" governor through his first 30 months in office. That was a drop from 25 percent in May.

Former Govs. Tom Ridge and Ed Rendell, by comparison, had approval numbers of 57 percent and 41 percent, respectively, at comparable points in their tenures, F&M poll director and political science professor G. Terry Madonna noted, and both built from there to easy re-elections.

"He has serious re-election problems with these numbers," Madonna said, referring to Corbett's planned bid for a second four-year term next year.

Pulling from other results of the Aug. 21-26 survey of 594 registered voters, Madonna said he believes part of Corbett's problem is not only that he whiffed on his marquee legislative priorities this summer, but that those priorities – with the exception of demonstrable public interest in increased transportation funding - may not be in strong alignment with the wants and needs of many Pennsylvania voters.

Madonna noted that when respondents were given their chance to rate the issues of most importance to them, their list started with schools and education (23 percent), followed by unemployment and other economic concerns (a combined 28 percent), and the health care issues (6 percent). Corbett's emphasis on privatizing the state's liquor stores, while popular in some surveys, doesn't really register as a top concern, he noted.

And Corbett, at this point, seems to be taking more hits for cutting education funding then rounds of applause for his attention to keeping the state's tax rates in check. "Since June," Madonna said, "you can't find newspaper without one story after another about cutbacks in education."

Corbett's team may argue that they are being unfairly blamed for spending cuts because of the end of the federal stimulus dollars, Madonna said, but if parents don't like what they're seeing, the incumbent is a convenient target.

Incidentally, there's little comfort for members of the Pennsylvania Legislature in the latest poll: its excellent / good numbers as an institution are down to 11 percent this month, another all-time low for the F&M poll.

The difference for the senators and representatives, Madonna said, is that they will have freshly-redrawn legislative districts to run in in 2014, districts that for the most part have been built with incumbent protection in mind.

Corbett hasn't really begun to campaign publicly yet, and there is no identified Democrat party candidate for his record to be measured against. At present, there are at least six Democrats who are either in or evaluating making a race against Corbett, though none has emerged as a significant front-runner at this early stage.

When the campaign truly engages, Barley said, Corbett will have a strong message focused on restoring fiscal discipline to government and taking solid steps to foster new job growth across the state like the enticements to natural gas drillers in the state's Marcellus Shale region, or taking steps to lower the overall tax burden on Pennsylvania businesses.

Barley, after a summer of re-evaluation and reflection with top supporters, also said he believes the best days of Corbett's first term are still ahead, arguing that a freshly-retooled senior staff will be working hard this fall to try to finally check off some of the governor's 2013 goals.

Madonna agreed there are potential rays of hope for Corbett.

One would be the possibility of a dynamic economic turnaround that would allow Corbett to make major new investments in schools or colleges in 2014. Another, could be the long-awaited delivery of a transportation package that meets infrastructure needs without leaving motorists feeling too much pain at the gasoline pumps.

Whatever it is, Madonna said, Corbett needs to find something that will help him start to generate his own momentum as 2014 approaches.

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