Democrats Fear Texas Senate Defeat A Harbinger Of '94 Races

Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison bested Krueger by nearly 1 million votes and a 2-1 ratio in Saturday's special election, and her victory means a good deal more than just one more GOP vote in Minority Leader Bob Dole's opposition army in the U.S. Senate.

Hutchison, a Republican insider who ran as a Washington outsider, claimed her triumph with a blast at President Clinton's economic proposals, saying she would "do everything I can do to kill the taxes in the Clinton program."

Among Democrats, the landslide produced a flood of speculation and concern about the stumbling start of the Clinton administration and about next year's midterm elections.

"The Texas result makes everybody fast-forward to next year," said Democratic consultant Brian Lunde. "You have to ask yourself what happens if we're in this situation in '94 with the president. You have to start preparing for the worst."

Lunde believes the embarrassing result will function as a wakeup call for the administration, as well as for Democratic candidates at the federal level.

But if some Democrats heard the alarm clock, others see a nightmare in Krueger's dismal 33 percent showing.

Next year, 33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are up for election. Democrats hold 21 of the Senate seats and 256 of the House seats.

Many of those Democrats already are uneasy over Clinton's declining poll numbers and the continuing clout of Texas billionaire Ross Perot, who is increasingly antagonistic toward the president.

For Clinton, the defeat in Texas threatens his economic plan, which faces preliminary votes in the Senate this week, and his soon-to-be-unveiled health-care proposal.

The threat goes well beyond the simple reduction of the Democrats' numerical advantage in the Senate, now 56-44.

"Krueger was obviously a poor candidate, but this is a devastating loss for the Democrats," said Merle Black, author of several books on Southern politics.

Around the country, Democratic activists expressed gratitude that none of their candidates are facing the voters this month.

"We don't have a Senate race here in '94, and our congressional seats look solid, so there's no panic over what happened in Texas. But I was shocked by the margin."

"Everybody with a Senate race next year is taking stock," said one state Democratic executive director, asking anonymity. "Clinton's got some time, but he better start using it wisely."

Clinton loyalists, including strategist Paul Begala, who was dispatched to Texas in a vain attempt to save Krueger, heaped blame on the candidate, who had lost two previous campaigns for the Senate.

Krueger was appointed by Democratic Gov. Ann Richards in January to the seat vacated when Lloyd Bentsen became treasury secretary.

Some Texas observers think the focus should be on Krueger rather than Clinton.

"I think the idea that this election is the bell cow for Clinton's future is overstated," said Bruce Buchanan, a professor of government at the University of Texas. "Most voters here were expressing a level of irritation with Clinton, but it was still about Texas and Texas candidates."

Still, it is evident that Krueger's stumbling candidacy was damaged by Clinton's recent "misadventures," in the kind words of Texas Democratic Chairman Bob Slagle.

Beyond the president's $200 haircut and the Lani Guinier fiasco, Clinton's initial Btu tax proposal-modified substantially by White House strategists Monday-was a non-starter in oil-rich Texas, and his stated intention to lift the ban on gays in the military has a decidedly limited appeal in the socially conservative state.

Assessing Krueger's defeat, silver linings are in short supply for Democrats. He lost in virtually every region of the state. He failed to lure Perot supporters from his rival, who earned an endorsement from Perot's United We Stand America group just before the vote.

Just as damning, Krueger was unable to hold together the Democratic coalition that swept Gov. Richards to victory in 1990. In the traditional Democratic strongholds in east and south Texas, black and Hispanic voters abandoned Krueger.