Some of the models are predicting 80 knot+ peak winds at Karls closest approach to Bermuda.The hurricane strength wind field won't extend out very far on the weak side of the storm.I would probably post hurricane warnings to be on the safe side.

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H. REMARKS...THE LLCC IS 1/3 DEGREES INTO A LARGE COLD OVERCAST RESULTINGIN A DT OF 3.5 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE MET IS A 4.0 BASED ON RAPIDDEVELOPMENT. THE PT IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON THE MET...DUE TO UNCERTAINTYIN THE LLCC POSITION UNDER THE OVERCAST.

Karl is looking really good on sat imagery and if you look at Bermuda's radar, you can see a big curved band SW of the Island. Plus it's been pretty windy there throughout the day as Karl approaches per the port web cam. It's going to be rough tonight and tomorrow.

Last edited by JaxGator on Fri Sep 23, 2016 11:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Bermuda radar showing either a mid-level eye, or that the mid and low-level centers are aligning.

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A few hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reportedflight-level winds of 71 kt at 7800 ft about 30 n mi to thesouthwest of the center, along with SFMR surface wind estimates ofnear 55 kt. The minimum central pressure at the time was near 990mb. Since then, the cyclone has gotten better organized, withradar data from Bermuda showing a strong convective band west andnorthwest of the center. One caveat to the increased organizationis that the center apparent in both radar and microwave imagery maybe a little to the northwest of the surface center. Based on theearlier aircraft data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt, andthis could be a little conservative.

Karl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between29-30C for the next 12-24 hours or so in an environment of moderatevertical wind shear. This should allow the cyclone to strengthento a hurricane in about 24 hours. After that, the cyclone shouldundergo extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front,and this should be complete by 48 hours. The cyclone is likely tobe absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72 hours. Thenew intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, but itlies a little below the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models.

The initial motion is 020/11. Karl is about to enter strongsouthwesterly flow in advance of a deep-layer trough and associatedsurface cold front moving eastward from the northeastern UnitedStates. This should result in a turn toward the northeast duringthe next several hours and an increase in forward speed. The newtrack forecast has changed little from the previous forecast, andcalls for Karl to make its closest approach to Bermuda during thenext 12 hours and then move rapidly away from the island. Overall,the forecast track is near the center of the tightly clusteredguidance.

The wind radii have been revised based on a recent scatterometeroverpass and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morningindicate that Karl has made the much anticipated turn toward thenortheast, and that the center has also reached its closest point ofapproach to Bermuda. The strongest 825-mb flight-level wind measuredthus far has been 66 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind measuredhas been 49 kt. The central pressure of 994 mb is based on arecent dropsonde report. An earlier dropsonde report indicated thatthe flight-level center was tilted to the northeast of the surfacecenter. Based on these data, the initial intensity is beingmaintained at 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 035/15 kt. Karl is now coming underthe influence of deep southwesterly steering flow in advance of anapproaching strong mid-latitude trough and surface cold front. Thisflow pattern should keep Karl moving northeastward away from Bermudaand steadily increase its forward speed to 40-45 kt by 36-48 hours.The new forecast track is similar to but slightly to the left of theof the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of thetightly clustered track guidance.

Karl appears to have entrained some dry air in the mid- and low-levels of the atmosphere based on reconnaissance data. However, thecyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for thenext 24 hours or so within an environment of moderate vertical windshear. This should allow Karl to strengthen to a hurricane in about24-36 hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to undergoextratropical transition as it merges with the cold front, and thisshould be complete by 48 hours, if not sooner. The cyclone isexpected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previousadvisory and lies close to the consensus model IVCN.

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Nimbus wrote:Surface observations in Bermuda are showing peak winds of only 30 to 40 mph with the surface pressure dropping to 29.55 as Karl passed.

Not surprised. Karl looked pretty good yesterday morning, but as the day wore on the wind field became much less symmetrically really and it became more difficult to pinpoint the center. Looking at the loop, It really looked sloppy as it made its pass by Bermuda.

Data from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into Karlearlier this morning found peak flight-level winds of 63 kt at 8,000ft and a peak SFMR wind of 47 kt. Based on these data, the initialintensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this could be alittle generous. The latest minimum central pressure based on adropsonde from the aircraft is 994 mb. Karl is still expected tostrengthen, but it seems likely that this will be at least partlydue to baroclinic effects, as the global models shows Karlintensifying while the shear increases to over 50 kt by 24 hours.The new NHC intensity forecast follows this trend, and keeps Karl asa 70-kt cyclone with a very large wind field when it becomespost-tropical in 36 hours. The circulation of Karl should beabsorbed by a large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlanticby 48 hours, as shown in the global model solutions.

The aircraft last fixed the center on the southeastern side of thedeep convection, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/16.Karl should accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a broaddeep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic until it is absorbed,with the forward speed expected to reach 50 kt by 36 hours. The newNHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains nearthe middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast of Karl's post-tropical phase has been coordinated with the Ocean PredictionCenter.

If I'm correct, at this position they were forecasting Karl to be at least a category 2.

But it's good news for Bermuda though that this didn't become as strong as anticipated while it passed them.

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