Global Warming not to blame for toad extinction

From a Columbia University press release, here’s a case where the early speculation of science was wrong. Originally global warming was blamed, but it turns out to be El Niño helping along an already established pathogen.

El Niño and a pathogen killed Costa Rican toad, study finds

Challenges evidence that global warming was the cause

The Monteverde golden toad disappeared from Costa Rica Pacific coastal forest in the late 1980s. Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Scientists broadly agree that global warming may threaten the survival of many plant and animal species; but global warming did not kill the Monteverde golden toad, an often cited example of climate-triggered extinction, says a new study. The toad vanished from Costa Rica’s Pacific coastal-mountain cloud forest in the late 1980s, the apparent victim of a pathogen outbreak that has wiped out dozens of other amphibians in the Americas. Many researchers have linked outbreaks of the deadly chytrid fungus to climate change, but the new study asserts that the weather patterns, at Monteverde at least, were not out of the ordinary.

The role that climate change played in the toad’s demise has been fiercely debated in recent years. The new paper, in the March 1 issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, is the latest to weigh in. In the study, researchers used old-growth trees from the Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve to reconstruct moisture levels in that region over the last century. They expected to see global warming manifested in the form of a long-term warming or drying trend, but instead discovered that the forest’s dry spells closely tracked El Niño, the periodic and natural warming of waters off South America that brings drought to some places and added rainfall and snow to others.

The golden toad vanished after an exceptionally dry season following the 1986-1987 El Niño, probably not long after the chytrid fungus was introduced. Scientists speculate that dry conditions caused the toads to congregate in a small number of puddles to reproduce, prompting the disease to spread rapidly. Some have linked the dry spell to global warming, arguing that warmer temperatures allowed the chytrid pathogen to flourish and weakened the toad’s defenses. The new study finds that Monteverde was the driest it’s been in a hundred years following the 1986-1987 El Niño, but that those dry conditions were still within the range of normal climate variability. The study does not address amphibian declines elsewhere, nor do the authors suggest that global warming is not a serious threat to biodiversity.

“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Average global temperatures have climbed about 0.8 degrees (1.4 degrees F) in the past hundred years, and some studies suggest that mountain regions are warming even more. In search of favorable conditions, alpine plants and animals are creeping to higher altitudes—not always with success.

Researcher Kevin Anchukaitis sampled nearly 30 old trees in the Monteverde cloud forest before finding two whose climate data could be extracted.

Credit: Jorge Porras.

In a 2006 paper in Nature, a team of U.S. and Latin American scientists linked rising tropical temperatures to the disappearance of 64 amphibian species in Central and South America. They proposed that warmer temperatures, associated with greater cloud cover, had led to cooler days and warmer nights, creating conditions that allowed the chytrid fungus to grow and spread. The fungus kills frogs and toads by releasing poison and attacking their skin and teeth. “Disease is the bullet killing frogs, but climate change is pulling the trigger,” the lead author of the Nature study and a research scientist at the Monteverde reserve, J. Alan Pounds, said at the time.

The new study in PNAS suggests that it was El Niño—not climate change—that caused the fungus to thrive, killing the golden toad. “El Niño pulled the trigger,” said Anchukaitis.

Proving a link between climate change and biodiversity loss is difficult because so many overlapping factors may be at play, including habitat destruction, introduction of disease, pollution and normal weather variability. This is especially true in the tropics, because written weather records may go back only a few decades, preventing researchers from spotting long-term trends.

In the last decade, scientists have improved techniques for reconstructing past climate from tiny samples of wood drilled from tropical trees. Unlike trees in northern latitudes, tropical trees may grow year round, and often do not form the sharply defined growth rings that help scientists differentiate wet years from dry years in many temperate-region species. But even in the tropics, weather can leave an imprint on growing trees. During the dry season, trees take up water with more of the heavy isotope, oxygen-18, than oxygen-16. By analyzing the isotope ratio of the tree’s wood, scientists can reconstruct the periods of rainfall and relative humidity throughout its life.

On two field trips to Costa Rica, Anchukaitis sampled nearly 30 trees, looking for specimens old enough, and with enough annual growth, to be studied. Back in the lab, he and study co-author Michael Evans, a climate scientist at University of Maryland, analyzed thousands of samples of wood trimmed to the size of pencil shavings.

Their results are only the latest challenge to the theory that climate change is driving the deadly chytrid outbreaks in the Americas. In a 2008 paper in the journal PLoS Biology, University of Maryland biologist Karen Lips mapped the loss of harlequin frogs from Costa Rica to Panama. She found that their decline followed the step-by-step pattern of an emerging infectious disease, affecting frogs in the mountains but not the lowlands. Had the outbreak been climate-induced, she said, the decline should have moved up and down the mountains over time.

Reached by e-mail, Pounds said he disagreed with the PNAS study. He said that his own 40-year rainfall and mist-cover measurements at Monteverde show a drying trend that the authors missed because they were unable to analyze moisture variations day to day or week to week. The weather is becoming more variable and extreme, he added, favoring some pathogens and making some animals more susceptible to disease.

“Anyone paying close attention to living systems in the wild is aware that our planet is in serious trouble,” he said. “It’s just a matter of time before this becomes painfully obvious to everyone.”

Scientists think climate change may drive plants and animals to extinction by changing their habitats too quickly for them to adapt, shrinking water supplies, or by providing optimal conditions for diseases. Researchers have established links between population declines and global warming, from sea-ice dependent Adélie and emperor penguins, to corals threatened by ocean acidification and warming sea temperatures.

Warming ocean temperatures are likely to have some effect on El Niño, but scientists are still unsure what they will be, said Henry Diaz, an El Niño expert at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency. He said the paper offers strong evidence that climate change was not a factor in the El Niño dry season that coincided with the golden toad’s extinction. “Climate change is best visualized as large-scale averages,” he said. “Getting down to specific regions, Costa Rica, or the Monteverde cloud forest, it’s hard to ascribe extinctions to climate change.”

That does not mean humans are off the hook, said Evans. “Extinctions happen for reasons that are independent of human-caused climate change, but that does not mean human-caused climate change can’t cause extinctions,” he said.

And the world is a safer place for its demise.
Costa Rica has a booming eco-tourist industry, wherein eco-tourists hurry down to CR to tramp through the last pristine unspoiled jungle before it’s spoiled by eco-tourists.

I enjoy these sorts of reports. They are interesting, informative about natural systems, and about how scientists operate. Good stuff.
However, along with the study we find folks tripping over their tongues making statements that go well beyond what is known. The man disagreeing with the results says that our planet is in serious trouble referring to living systems in the wild. One supposes he is thinking about warming issues but that is not clear here. On supposes he is thinking of CAGW but that isn’t made clear either.
My question to him is – When haven’t the ‘living systems’ of Earth been ‘in serious trouble? Has there been a golden age I haven’t heard about?

“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.”
Again….circular reasoning at its best.
It is almost laughable.
Is there a pathogen affecting their brains….when they determine….”no, not climate change [whatever the hell that is], but yes, el nino”….yet in the end they still come back to roost in their politically expedient “climate change” nest?
WTF?
Politically-funded, group-think-motivated statements at their worst.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions.”
There is no comfort in discovery of the facts, because wild conjecture is still out there. Amazing. What next? There is no comfort in knowing the earth revolves around the sun, because next week their positions could switch?“Extinctions happen for reasons that are independent of human-caused climate change, but that does not mean human-caused climate change can’t cause extinctions.”
No, it just means the latter has NEVER BEEN OBSERVED!!! It doesn’t mean that little green men from outer space won’t beam you up and probe you tomorrow; it just means it hasn’t happened yet.
Who pays these people to spew wild conjectures? Who peer-reviews this stuff? Is it the common practice in science today to report not only what you found, but also what you didn’t find but wish you had? When did wishful thinking become a de rigueur aspect of scientific inquiry?

“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
Pathetic, a man of science bowing to a false god!

“That does not mean humans are off the hook,” said Evans. “Extinctions happen for reasons that are independent of human-caused climate change, but that does not mean human-caused climate change can’t cause extinctions,” he said.
No bow to Gaia, there, just leaving the possibility open.

“Scientists broadly agree that global warming may threaten the survival of many plant and animal species”
What rubbish !
How on earth could an average global temperature rise of 0.7 degrees, smaller than other mean temperatures changes in the past 1000 years, smaller than local mean temperature changes, much smaller than day/night and summer/winter changes have any effect of survival of species ?
Who are the scientists who are supposed to “broadly agree” ?

Pounds statement:“Anyone paying close attention to living systems in the wild is aware that our planet is in serious trouble,” he said. “It’s just a matter of time before this becomes painfully obvious to everyone.”
Reminds me of statements like this:
“In ten years all important animal life in the sea will be extinct. Large areas of coastline will have to be evacuated because of the stench of dead fish.” – Paul Ehrlich, Earth Day, 1970
And while the Earth may be headed toward significant change (eventually) the ‘trouble’ may well be from from this rather than the little blip of warming over the past century:http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png

The thing I find intresting is the tree ring data that clearly shows el nino and not AGW as the cause of this frogs demise. This reminds me of an artical I read in National Geographic in early 2009 showing tree ring reserch on bristle cone pines in the western US showing that the 20th century was prehaps the wettest sense the 1st century AD… I AM SURE the native americans were all driving SUV’s and causing AGW on a grand scale with their camp fires as causing the dry conditions in the western US and the mass exstinction of several specices of animals and plants. LETS HEAR IT FOR THE EDUCATED FOLKS THAT STILL CAN’T PREFORM BASIC SCIENCE IN A EVEN-HANDED WAY… EF451

@Mike D. (22:59:00) :
“Who pays these people to spew wild conjectures?”
Answer:- Taxpayers. (OK, I’m sure you knew.)
Including the millions who will struggle to pay their electricity bills (if they haven’t succumbed to hypothermia) after this “mild” winter. In the UK electricity bills have already doubled in the last five years and are projected by the regulator to increase to £5,000 ($7,500) per family by 2020.
All so we can pay eco-warrior “scientists” to go on jolly holidays in Costa Rica pursuing their hobby and trying to scare us all with half baked AGW eco-drivel.

Researcher Kevin Anchukaitis sampled nearly 30 old trees in the Monteverde cloud forest before finding two whose climate data could be extracted
so out of how many trees did he look to “find” the right facts.
i looked at 1000 trees, and found 1 that proved what i was looking for.. is that true science..

Thanks, Jimbo, that’s a handy link to “the collected works of globalwarming alarmism”.
Nice to be reminded that only a couple of years ago daffodils were blooming in December in the UK (Winter’s dead and spring should be brought forward, says Kew Gardens – Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-512896/Winters-dead-spring-brought-forward-says-Kew-Gardens.html#ixzz0hTgaMDTU).
I inspected the plants in my garden last week (in NW England), trying to work out which had been killed by the exceptionally low temperatures. I was looking for the swelling of buds on trees and bushes which usually heralds spring. I couldn’t find any evidence, so either spring is going to be pretty late this year or my garden has been turned into a collection of dead sticks.

One more back garden observation. I also noticed that those autumn leaves which tend to disappear, having been dragged below the surface by worm activity, are still in heaps under the bushes. Still, who can blame earthworms for giving up when they have to fight their way through inches of frozen topsoil.
Are there any naturalists out there who would like to comment on the likely reduction in soil fertility due to declining activity of beneficial soil-dwelling creatures.

The final para in this report, as in so many such reports, has little to do with science or even with reason or logic, but is a creed recited as a reiteration of their own faith. “Man’s not off the hook”, indeed!
There is an almost sado-masochistic urge to both feel and to apportion some sort of guilt and blame by the closet-Marxist ecomentalists to Man for being fortunate enough to be enjoying the temperate gap between ice ages.

Gee,they they looked at ‘nearly’ 30 trees! (29? 28? maybe within one SD of 30?)And they fcound two!!! This may be a subliminal support for Dr. Mann’s Yamal tree methodology the wood from which was constructed the infamous hockey stick. This is clearly a ploy to step with one foot only away from the AGW fungus. Science will not be redeemed in this fashion. This is shameful toadying.

Whatever the cause, it’s tough on the toad, but that’s how survival of the fittest works.
What has always worried me, though, is how they know there are no tough old survivors somewhere in the jungle, already breeding a new improved supertoad. It is inconceivable that the researchers have searched the entire area, turned over every stone and dead branch, sufficiently to say that the entire species has disappeared.
As a side issue, I am interested to see that analysis of tropical tree cores is used to produce rainfall/relative humidity proxies. This has always seemed more believable outcome that temperature proxies just by considering the limiting conditions – when there is insufficient moisture plants die, whereas even with extreme temperatures, provided that there is moisture available, plants have inbuild mechanisms for countering the heat.

When one looks at all the claims made in climate science, the data behind them, the IPCC report and how the climate institutes worked, one can easily say that it was a giant enterprise of fraud.
The Arctic is at its second coldest point this winter.

Kiwis on this site, and I know a few are, might want to note that to save most of our particular endangered species we need the planet to keep getting warmer.
The Kauri, NZ beech etc all grow much better when it is warm. If we have another little ice age I fear they might not make it.

The new study in PNAS suggests that it was El Niño—not climate change—that caused the fungus to thrive, killing the golden toad. “El Niño pulled the trigger,” said Anchukaitis.

Ah, El Niño was the trigger. And what was the gun?
And while we’re at it: Can someone please explain how a weaker El Niño and a very inactive sun can still boost temperatures to and above the record temperatures of 1998? Because I really do not understand this.

“Scientists broadly agree that global warming may threaten the survival of many plant and animal species; but global warming did not kill the Monteverde golden toad, an often cited example of climate-triggered extinction, says a new study”.
“The study does not address amphibian declines elsewhere, nor do the authors suggest that global warming is not a serious threat to biodiversity”.
“Average global temperatures have climbed about 0.8 degrees (1.4 degrees F) in the past hundred years, and some studies suggest that mountain regions are warming even more. In search of favorable conditions, alpine plants and animals are creeping to higher altitudes—not always with success”.
All this AGW propaganda over the back of a dead tod!
Temperatures in Costa Rica have not changed at all and drought period has happened before!
That leaves the only probable source for the extinction of the tods that has not been discussed in the article! It’s the scientists themselves.
It is said that the very scientists doing field world in Panama and Costa Rica are responsible for the introduction and spreading of the amphibian killing pathogen during their field expeditions.
Shameless AGW Propaganda, shameless whitewash!

Do any of these amphibian researchers ever consider the possibility that they themselves are introducing this fungus into the wild toad and frog populations they study? Who else goes to such trouble to check out these out of the way habitats so thoroughly? I’ll bet the scientists use the same camping gear, clothes, and shoes trip after trip, and of course the fungus might live on skin, etc., without causing any harm to humans …

Don’t expect a conspiracy here or the need by the researchers to include global warming in their conjecture to “keep funds flowing”. Remember: These are biologists. They have been anti-civilisation for at least 40 years. Ehrlich is biologist. Schneider is. Biologists want pristine wilderness. They don’t want humans. They never want humans.
Actually, the other scientists should distance themselves from them and tell the media to not always say “Scientists say that…” when they mean biologists. Biologists are Luddites by definition.
Apologies to any biologist around here, but you are like that. I know a biologist first hand and she’s as anti technology and Malthusian as can be (while happily having 3 cars in their family).

How to prosper doing “Scientific Research”
Step 1) Identify an anomaly in your field of expertise.
Step 2) Write a research grant proposal. Be sure to include the statement “Suspected to be linked to global warming.”
Step 3) Receive your research grant and funds, proceed with the study.
Step 4) Focus your study on a temperature related phenomenon that can be fueling the anomaly. Look at other possible factors (non-temperature related), but dismiss them or at least minimalize them.
Step 5) Write your report, include the statement “Link to global warming confirmed”
Step 6) Contact the MSM, reporting the conclusions of your study. Ask them to publicize your study (in order to make your name a household word, and to spread the global warming alarmism to the public).
Repeat step 1 through step 6.

What’s always left out of the biodiversity scaremongering is that new species also evolve and the untold number of species we haven’t discovered yet. As AdderW said above, the planet would be awfully crowded if every species that ever lived was still extant – just think of all those Neanderthals competing in the housing market.

@mercurior (00:36:00) :
“i looked at 1000 trees, and found 1 that proved what i was looking for.. is that true science..”
Perhaps you could travel to Monteverde Costa Rica, look under 1,000 rocks, and under one find a Monteverde golden toad. This type of thing happens quite frequently.
“[According to USFWS Consultations and Habitat Conservation Chief Rick Sayers, once a species is branded extinct, it essentially drops off the agency’s radar screen. It also falls off the endangered species list–if it ever made it there in the first place. “To be honest with you,” says Sayers, “if we’re really convinced that a species is extinct, we don’t make a particularly strong effort to continue looking for it.”]”
Here is a list of a few species that were found alive, long after they were thought to be extinct:
“The Uinta Mountain snail, a Utah species that hadn’t been seen for nearly 60 years, was found in 1998 after an Indiana Jones-style expedition revealed typos in the original discoverer’s field report. After recalculating the missing snail’s dimensions, and moving the search to an entirely different mountain range, the modern-day researchers found what they were looking for.”
“Similarly, a new population of tiny snail darter fish was recently located in a tributary of the Tennessee River.”
“Dr. Stuart Pimm of the University of Tennessee, spent two rain-soaked years in Hawaii scouring the side of Maui’s 10,000-plus-foot Haleakala Crater in search of the elusive po’ouli honeycreeper, first discovered in 1973, later assumed to have gone extinct, and now believed by some experts to be the world’s rarest bird. By the time Pimm and his colleagues packed their bags for the mainland, they had re-found three remaining individuals.”
Source: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1594/is_6_10/ai_57800738/

“because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis,”

In other words…”We couldn’t pin it on CC this time but we are sure we can next time”
Well I for one am glad we didn’t kill the little critter. The great George carlins words come to mind “we didn’t kill them all”
Anyway, I’m too busy 3 ironing the cane toads on my property, I can’t be bothered with a little orange critter.

Oh logic. Heard in a supermarket, “This shop would be much more popular if it was not so crowded”.
As said above, global warming causes fewer, scattered pools of water where frogs congregate and so are more prone to passing on disease. Contrary logic, would not these puddles be further apart and less likely fo form a vector path?
I agree with the inference above that if there were rising temperatures, the frogs might well compensate by climbing a little higher up the coolness of the mountains. It’s a concept named ‘adaptation’ and it is not uncommon.

I read:
“Average global temperatures have climbed about 0.8 degrees (1.4 degrees F) in the past hundred years, and some studies suggest that mountain regions are warming even more.”
Is not the reciprocal true, or at least probable, where in the past average global temperatures have fallen about .8 degrees/century in order for temps to be rising now? We know temps have gone up, but we know they’ve gone down. Up, and down. For millenia.
Yet the toads survived? What is their temperature threshold, both high and low?

Peter Plail
I have been looking for an excuse to insinuate a seriously OT post, and your posting together with Anthony’s absence on overdue recuperation has emboldened me to sieze this moment. Moderators… please look away.
During the course of last year’s gripping discussions on extraordinarily serious subjects, there were some contributors who lightened the proceedings with casual observations on the progress or lack of same with regard to their heritage tomato plants.
Intrigued by these peripheral but by no means less interesting digressions, I acquired seeds of various “arctic” species, but unfortunately there were no planting instructions.
I wonder, could the tomatophiles be given discretionary leave to post a recommended planting date?
[Reply: post this on the Open Thread. ~dbs, mod.]

‘Scientists broadly agree that global warming may threaten the survival of many plant and animal species’
– How many species will Climate Change help to thrive? As in our case,it will increase water provision to more than it will deprive.(A fact that they attempted to hide).

The honey bee problem with Sudden Colony Collapse is probably related to Climate Change also.
For example, we know that Climate Change is related to the magnetosphere effects of the Earth and the Sun, likely in combination.
Climate Change IS related to changes in these magnetic fields
The honey bee navigates back to the hive by way of iron particles in its gut. These will be less effective in a lowered magnetic field environment.
Thus the bees don’t return to the hive.
Thus bee death IS related to Climate Change! Eureka!
(Just not CAUSED by)

Hi, sorry to butt in off thread but I’ve been trying to find out how methane acts chemically as a GHG and I can’t get any info anywhere. You guys seem to be fairly technical so I was hoping someone here could help me out.
Cheers, Derek

Maybe it’s just my imagination, but it seems every time I hear a report about a species’ extinction, I hear another unrelated report that someone has just identified one or more new species–usually several, usually in rainforests where little things seem to hide well.
I can’t help but believe at this point that more species are known to exist now than even ten years ago.

More scientists are dismissing validity of the so called “hocky stick” increse intemperature In light of the (1) new information that AGW studies using temperature monitors that have not been adjusted for proximity to an increased number of heat sources (2) the hocky stick inventors missing or unavailable data (3) the outrageous behaviour of the East Anglia U AGW group (4) The reversal of himalayan glacial melt predictions. The .8 temperature change in the article is without reference! Just flately stated as if it is religion.

Don Sparling of Southern Illinois University Carbondale found that minute quantities of endosulfan — the active ingredient in many pesticides — was enough kill frogs.
“At 0.8 parts per billion, we lose all of them,” Sparling said. 8 parts per billion is the equivalent of a dozen salt grains dissolved in 500 gallons of water.
We have created so many different chemicals for agriculture, cleaning, food preservation, building, etc. that they would effectively change DNA of anything being exposed. Our DNA is constantly being changed by our exposure anything we put into our bodies.
What about microbes and viruses? Adapt or extinction.
How does our planet show pressure build-up in the atmosphere?
Due to rotation, the pressure is exerted out which shows more growth up mountains.
Science is going to have a terrible crash when the AGW is put into the proper perspective and category.
Not a single scientist has included the understanding of the planets mechanics.

David Chappell (02:23:57) :
What’s always left out of the biodiversity scaremongering is that new species also evolve and the untold number of species we haven’t discovered yet. As AdderW said above, the planet would be awfully crowded if every species that ever lived was still extant – just think of all those Neanderthals competing in the housing market.
It’s not the housing market we have to worry about, but Neanderthals being in office in Washington. Well maybe not Neanderthals would probably do a better job…..Never mind.

I might have missed it.
It’s well known that that pathogen was spread by the scientists that were studying the toads.
This report could have just as easily read:
“Global Extinctions Linked to Scientists Studying Extinctions”

“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis.
No doubt indeed. Has done for billenia, and surely will do again. About time you got over it, Kevin.

I like to take statements and see if they retain the same level of truth when a key substitution is made. Try this one out:
“There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because the Wrath of Cthulhu will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,”
Yep – just as verifiable as the original.

This is essentially an observational study (as opposed to an experimental study). The design of observational studies is requires considerable care to ensure that unobserved factors are not major causal factors – as is illustraterd to some degree in this new study.
There is a discussion at Matt Brigg’s site on this very topic http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2043#comments .
I strongly recommend Stuart Young’s video identified by one of the commentators http://www.americanscientist.org/science/pub/everything-is-dangerous-a-controversy or his annotated slide deck ( http://niss.org/sites/default/files/Young_Safety_June_2008.pdf ). Matt’s blog and Young’s presentation and deck do a good job reminding us of the limitations and dangers of what is essentially data mining. (These produced findings with ex post facto rationalizations for effects and are examples of underspecified models.)Note An interesting part of the Young story involves his interaction with editors of the Proceedings of the Royal Society in 2007/8 (of Briffa Yamal Series fame) and his ultimately largely successful struggle to obtain the original raw data and code on a study that suggested that a mother’s diet influences the sex of her child. Young and colleagues effectively showed in an article in RSProceedingsBiology that the cereal/sex link was a spurious statistical artifice. My suspicion is that Steve McIntyre’s demands may have resonated with the editors after this earlier battle.

I can sum up this study in two sentences: “This toad in Costa Rica died because of a fungus that spread rapidly because of El Nino and not global warming, which made it dry and thus the toads stayed close together which spread the fungus faster. But man-made global warming is still a serious problem that we believe in, so please don’t get angry and take away our funding!”

Anybody else bothered by the caption on the included picture?
“Researcher Kevin Anchukaitis sampled nearly 30 old trees in the Monteverde cloud forest before finding two whose climate data could be extracted. Credit: Jorge Porras.”
sampled nearly 30? found two?

The AGW party line is intact.
“Mike and Nicola maintain that “future climate change is likely to exacerbate this situation with more frequent dry winters and warmer temperatures. By the 2050s, ‘dry’ winters will become up to twice as frequent and ‘warm’ winters will occur in between 50 and 100 per cent of years. This is likely to lead to many more periods during future winter dry seasons when clouds will be less prevalent over the mountain forests, thus seriously damaging this unique mountain habitat for amphibians and cloud-forest lizard species.””http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/extinct-golden-toad.html
To a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Mike Ramsey

What conditions cause the climate to go into fits of extremes?
Is it a warming climate or a cooling climate?
Is it the change in status from a wam climate to a cool climate and does it work both ways?
i.e. – is the climate more stable when it is not changing status?

but we gotta follow the yellow sick toad (frog).
toyotawhizguy (02:45:24
My point is if you select a limited amount of datasets, 30 trees, out of potentially thousands in the area, and out of those 30 you find 2 that prove you are right, does that mean every other tree is wrong.. or did he cherry pick the ones he knows prove his assumption.
Say i throw 30 coins in the air, and 2 land on their edge, the rest are 14 heads and 14 tails, since i have been saying all coins land on their edge, i ignore the 28 that dont count Because they go against my theory and say there you go proof.

pat (22:11:50) :
“…but does anyone who has learned the fallacy of Lamarckian theory, …”
I understand that studies in epigenetics suggest that some evolution may occur as a direct result of events in an individuals’ pre-procreational lifetime directly effecting their offspring, so Lamarck’s theory seems to have some potential.
Epigenetic changes do not necessarily effect the DNA though, just the epigenome, which, in my armchair biochemistry thinking, could be described as a bunch of protein groupies who hang around the DNA rock star, influence its behavior and, to some degree, may be passed on to offspring.
Chiefio’s post on tomatoes (http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/03/05/its-cold-just-ask-the-tomatoes/) and the newly discovered temperature gene seems to be an illustration of the role of the epigenome. In his example, the histone protein, H2A.Z would be part of the epigenome (me thinks).

I’m starting to think that climate researchers have not learned the lesson of object perminenence. If the see a toad and then they look again in the same place and the toad is gone they assume it’s extinct.

Peter Dare (02:36:33) :
“The report states that the chytrid disease was introduced to Monteverde but does not explain how – presumably through some kind of human activity? Has anyone got information about this?”
To follow up on my previous posting, the origin of the worldwide spread of the chytrid fungal infection of amphibians is the medical use of the African clawed toad Xenopus laevis. They were for instance exported worldwide as pregnancy test kits in the 30s and 40s. These toads are immune to the chytrid fungus but carried it on their travels; following these exports, nearby wild amphibians began dying of Chytridiomycosis everywhere where the Xenopus toads were sent.
These two wikipedia links are instructive. First:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_testing_on_frogs
However elsewhere, no doubt under the influence of our friend Connolly, wikipedia gives a more politically correct version – its all about global warming!http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chytridiomycosis
The latter is the party line that is bebunked in the present article by Kevin Anchukaitis.

” latitude (05:58:43) :
Engiiner (04:33:51) :
Quote: “The honey bee problem with Sudden Colony Collapse is probably related to Climate Change also.”
Nope, linked to a new class of biological insecticides made from a Bacillus.”
Nope – has been just recently traced to a mite infestation that is common to hives, is treatable, and for some reason, has increased its foothold in colonized bees. BT (Bacillus thuriengsis spp.) has been around for decades and is not known to be a particular killer of bees generally.

Any explanation of any regional phenomenon referring to “global” warming must be nonsense. The human influence is currently unknown in terms of quantifiable impact, so equally unsuitable as an explanation. Glaciers have shrunken before and they will very likely grow again before any new ice age arrives. We understand so little and have so much still to learn.

What I get from a bit of googling is that man is likely responsible for spreading the invasive species Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) from its home base in South Africa through:
a) the clawed frog pet trade,
b) human pregnancy testing in the 1940s and ‘50s (they lay eggs after being injected with a pregnant woman’s urine.
c) wide use in developmental, cellular, and molecular biological research.
Question: If Bd never existed in Costa Rica before, say, the 1930’s, what meaning can be culled from looking at long term climate change? It seems they should only be looking at yearly or perhaps decadal scale changes since the 1930’s, in which case, don’t they have local weather records which could do a better job then drilling holes in those awesome trees?

Your Honor, I must object!
The State is repeatedly making statements that assume facts not in evidence!
“Scientists broadly agree..”
“global warming may threaten..”
“an often cited example of climate-triggered extinction,…”
“Many researchers have linked.. to climate change,
“climate change played in the toad’s demise..”
“global warming manifested in long-term warming or drying..”
“linked the dry spell to global warming,”
“nor do the authors suggest that global warming is not a serious threat to biodiversity.”
“climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,”
“study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist..”
“Average global temperatures have climbed about 0.8 degrees (1.4 degrees F) in the past hundred years,”
“it was El Niño—not climate change—”
“a link between climate change and biodiversity loss is difficult”
“Anyone paying close attention to living systems in the wild is aware that our planet is in serious trouble,”
“It’s just a matter of time before this becomes painfully obvious to everyone.”
Your Honor, I request that this entire “report summary” be stricken from the record.

(Sunday morning Engineer Humor)
toyotawhizguy (02:12:10) :
How to prosper doing “Scientific Research”
**************************
I have completed step 2 and I am working on step 3. My study is “The Jewett Institute for Serenity, Tranquility, and Peace study of the effect of AGW on the Mass of Mammaries as studied on the Beaches of San Tropez”. (The MOM study.)
I am asking for $40,000,000 to study this vital subject.
Unfortunately, Mrs. Jewett is a denier. She has no appreciation of the importance of science or of my dedication to the subject!
(Sigh!)
Moderator: I fully understand if you clip my post. Mrs. Jewett had me clipped years ago, so I am used to it.
Steamboat Jack
(who refuses to grow up)

If humans were to go extinct, there would be no global warming. I’ve talked to my rabbit about it and he didn’t notice there was a problem. My garden-toad neither.
The ants said they were to bussy to discuss the matter and the owl said that spring was comming 🙂

“Chytrid is now reported on all continents where frogs live—in 43 countries and 36 U.S. states. It survives at elevations from sea level to 20,000 feet and kills animals that are aquatic, land-loving, and those that jump the line. Locally it may be spread by anything from a frog’s legs to a bird’s feathers to a hiker’s muddy boots, and it has afflicted at least 200 species.”
“”It wasn’t long ago when you walked along the bank of this pond,” he recalls, “a frog leapt at every other step. You’d see hundreds of them alive and well, soaking in the sun in a writhing mass.” But in 2005, when the biologist hiked up to his camp anticipating another season of long-term studies, “there were dead frogs everywhere. Frogs I’d been working with for years, that I’d tagged and followed through their lives, all dead. I sat down on the ground and cried.””

I just had a posting obliterated. Usually my name and e-dress are filled in automatically, and I assumed that this had been done when I composed my comment. When I pressed “Submit” I got a message that information was missing. And I found that my entire posting had been wiped out. Moderators, can’t your system be improved so it returns to the status before the incident so we don’t have to retype everything. It’s a big bother!!
IanM
[Reply: this sounds like a WordPress glitch and should be reported to them. ~dbs, mod.]

Thanks for posting this interesting story. I have been interested in the amphibian decline story for a while. Just wanted to add a few thoughts to the mix.
First, this is a classic case of an introduced organism wreaking havoc in a new habitat. There are many examples, but with respect to pathogens Dutch elm disease and chestnut blight come to mind. Climatic conditions might affect the rate at which the pathogen spreads, but the end result is the same. El Nino didn’t pull the trigger, it just stepped on the gas a bit (perhaps).
Second, Xenopus (the original source of the pathogen) is also a popular laboratory animal. You can inject foreign nucleic acids into the unfertilized eggs and they readily make the encoded proteins, put them into the membranes in correct order, etc. Very useful, so labs all over the world have colonies of Xenopus.
Next, I agree with others here- sampling 2 trees in a forest is not a particularly impressive approach from a statistical standpoint.
Finally, DirkH, lighten up on biologists. You know a few but hardly all of them. I’m one myself, and I know plenty of others who are AGW skeptics. The subset who perform field studies of populations might have the tendencies you describe, but I suspect there are skeptics even in that group. Let’s leave the unfounded generalizations to the Gorebots.

Engiiner (04:33:51) :
The honey bee navigates back to the hive by way of iron particles in its gut. These will be less effective in a lowered magnetic field environment.>>
Always wondered how the critters got back home. That sounds reasonable on the surface, but wouldn’t things like power lines, electric motors and so on seriously mess up the flux lines in the area and put them out of kilter?

The contamination of the natural sciences by AGW is abundantly clear when a study of a toad is bent like a pretzel to encompass all and sundry links to AGW before the author can conclude that there’s no there there.
I suspect that funding was in part or whole predicated on studying such links and that future funding is likely to be denied (even with the obligatory kneeling and scraping to Gaia). I also suspect we’ll see a new study shortly refuting the present findings.

Paul Coppin (07:22:52) :
Quote: “Nope – has been just recently traced to a mite infestation”
Paul, you’re right, I was wrong.
Last I heard about it was from FIU, and I didn’t keep up after that.
They banned some insecticides in Florida blaming them on colony collapse.
Wonder if that would qualify as another hysterical projection before the science was in?

brc (22:25:41) :
That’s one less in the list of 30,000 species to be extinct from AGW
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
ok, if that ia true what are the other 29,999?
please list them so we check for ourselves to see if you didn’t make that up.

Why does this remind me of the Sudden Oak Death Syndrome in Marin County, CA? Could it be that the same tree hugging polluters were involved in transmitting another ecology destroying pathogen? So how much of the world devastation is being generated by these “People Who Care”?
Long ago I posted about a classmate at USC who, when asked why he was studying Ecology as a minor in Biology, replied, “Because I want to tell people what to do.” Kind of sums up a lot of the attitudes of the Warmistas and Gorebalites.

Layne Blanchard (22:57:19) :
Well, we created a HAIL of bullets that took out the bison….
…………………………………………………………………………………….
There is some evidence that buffalo had already started to become extinct in the US before that since the geographical area they covered was shrinking already
it wasn’t only because of the white man

Peter Dare (02:36:33) :The report states that the chytrid disease was introduced to Monteverde but does not explain how – presumably through some kind of human activity? Has anyone got information about this?
Do you? you pre-judged that is was humans?

Fantastiic – At a time when the IPCC is making dire predictions of mass extinctions caused by global warming, and cites events like the extinction of the golden toad as evidence that it is already happening, that is refreshing. And that should be that. The earlier 2006 study was yet another of the many climate change studies that have blamed global warming for every possible disaster, and predicted more catastrophes to come if we don’t take firm action to stop it.
But wait. Why do Anchukaitis and Evans then talk about what their study definitely did not show?
In their Q&A section of the study, the authors say “Both the rate and magnitude of ongoing and future climate change are very likely to put additional stresses on ecosystems. In combination with land use change, introduced pathogens, pollution, and other related ecological changes, anthropogenic climate change will undoubtedly play a role in future extinctions.” And Evans says “extinctions happen for reasons that are independent of human-caused climate change, but that does not mean human-caused climate change can’t cause extinctions”.
No part of their study supports those statements. So why do they depart from the legitimate findings of their study and make the statements when they are supposedly discussing the study?
Because their sources of present or future funding expect alarmist warnings about global warming to be communicated with the findings. Even when the study conclusions in no way support those warnings. Them’s the rules. That’s the tune the men with the money expect the pipers to play.
Grumpy Old Man.

It seems that El Nino is responsible for a lot of the sins blamed on AGW.
The Golden Toad is one example but Coral Reef destruction a number of times.
In 1982/1983 created extensive damage in the ocean, but the effect on land
was nullified by a major volcano eruption. Much of the Sea Surface temperature(SST) rise heralded by “Warmists” Scientists has been caused by El Ninos In many cases the “Super” El Ninoes are felt far beyond the local area. Since all of this is natural, maybe everytime unusual heat occurs we should scream “El Nino”
At least this fresearch was reported. Could be the pressure felt from Climategate
or just qualifying for a grant.

““There’s no comfort in knowing that the golden toad’s extinction was the result of El Niño and an introduced pathogen, because climate change will no doubt play a role in future extinctions,” said study lead author Kevin Anchukaitis, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.”
No matter what happens they drag it back.
I saw a posting ( somewhere) claiming that CO2 was poison because it only takes a little Arsenic to kill you , so a little CO2 must also be bad.
Like saying : ” Hey don’t put salt on your food, plutonium could kill you !”
Poor little frogs.

davidmhoffer (08:34:41) :Engiiner (04:33:51) :
“The honey bee navigates back to the hive by way of iron particles in its gut. These will be less effective in a lowered magnetic field environment.”
Always wondered how the critters got back home. That sounds reasonable on the surface, but wouldn’t things like power lines, electric motors and so on seriously mess up the flux lines in the area and put them out of kilter?
No worry about power lines messing up bees’ navigation system. They find their way around visually, using ultraviolet light, *not* iron particles in their guts (aside to Engiiner: where in the ever-lovin’ blue-eyed world did you hear *that*?).
And Sudden Colony Collapse is caused by mite infestations — the mites probably got here courtesy of an unfumigated shipping container.

Yes it is an example of the survival of the fittest. It is similar to the effects of influenza and other diseases upon the indigenous peoples of the Pacific upon the arrival of Europeans to that region. But those races adapted.
Doug

I
M. Simon (01:46:2
”1nterested in another corruption of science? Look up “ozone hole scam” and “cfc off patent ozone hole”. The enviro scientists are for sale. ‘
Yes, I always thought tht this was a ‘trial run’ for the global warming co2 scam. They made a lot of boodle out of the CFC one – this one is the ‘eldorado’ version!
Doug
‘

Most die offs in the animal kingdom including humans are due to disease. The Native Americans, for example, were not eliminated in large measure due to US government funded wars. My tribe went from 10,000 to less than 300 over the course of 100 years. Less than 40 of the deaths can be attributed to wars with Europeans and Americans.
With the invention of air travel disease can travel globally in just days. Extinction is happening because these species are getting exposed to brand new diseases more often – probably spread by some of the very ecologists going to study them.

How the H.E.L.L. (Holy Exceptional Looney Logic) is rainfall connected with the fiction of “average temperature”?
“The people imagine a vain thing…” Psalms 2
Sorry, this sort of garbage masquerading as “science” drives me up a wall!
Secondarily the O16 to O18 ratio varies with the number of tropical thunderstorms by “season” and proximity to costal areas. Not entirely directly connected with “wet and dry” periods.

toyotawhizguy (02:45:24) :
“The Uinta Mountain snail, a Utah species that hadn’t been seen for nearly 60 years, was found in 1998 after an Indiana Jones-style expedition revealed typos in the original discoverer’s field report. After recalculating the missing snail’s dimensions, and moving the search to an entirely different mountain range, the modern-day researchers found what they were looking for.”
Jeff and Trevor were astounded. All this time they had been searching for a snail forty feet long to discover it was only forty millimetres.

In the article is the text: “During the dry season, trees take up water with more of the heavy isotope, oxygen-18, than oxygen-16. By analyzing the isotope ratio of the tree’s wood, scientists can reconstruct the periods of rainfall and relative humidity throughout its life.”
I suspect a writer’s glitch here, and that the text should indicate that more O-18 is taken up , not more O-18 than O-16, since there is vastly more of the latter than the former.
And didn’t I read that there is a tendency in general for biological processes to selectively absorb molecules of lower isotope number, like O-16 in preference to O-18?
IanM

What I always find astounding is that people who do studies like this claim to be in awe of nature, yet seem to have no understanding whatsoever of how nature has worked, does work and will continue to work despite man. Species evolve or adapt or they die out. That is how it works. The void left by a species passing is taken up by some other species. Nature put us here, gave us the cognitive abilities to create complex tools and ideas. Me thinks nature will have the final word. These “scientists” have to stop putting human values on the constantly morphing world around us. The world is going to change, as it always has.

Do any of these amphibian researchers ever consider the possibility that they themselves are introducing this fungus into the wild toad and frog populations they study? Who else goes to such trouble to check out these out of the way habitats so thoroughly? I’ll bet the scientists use the same camping gear, clothes, and shoes trip after trip, and of course the fungus might live on skin, etc., without causing any harm to humans …

Excellent guess, pkj. It turns out that the fungus was transmitted exactly that way, by scientists who were investigating lots of frog species to see inter alia if they had been killed by … global warming …

How is it spread?
… The fungus (or infected frogs or tadpoles) can be spread by people in water and mud on boots, camping equipment and vehicle tyres …

Excellent summary -despite some usual stylistic rhetorics- of the Methane question on… yes, Realclimate!!!http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/03/arctic-methane-on-the-move/
I quote David Archer:
“Is now the time to get frightened? No. ”
“What’s missing from these studies themselves is evidence that the Siberian shelf degassing is new, a climate feedback, rather than simply nature-as-usual, driven by the retreat of submerged permafrost left over from the last ice age. ”
“The concentration held steady in 2008, meaning at least that interannual variability is important in the methane cycle, and making it hard to say if the long-term average emission rate is rising in a way that would be consistent with a new carbon feedback.”
“Anyway, so far it is at most a very small feedback. The Siberian Margin might rival the whole rest of the world ocean as a methane source, but the ocean source overall is much smaller than the land source. ”
“For methane to be a game-changer in the future of Earth’s climate, it would have to degas to the atmosphere catastrophically, on a time scale that is faster than the decadal lifetime of methane in the air. So far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that happen.”
So perhaps all the MSM that propped up this study as the new scare should, for once, have read realclimate…
Thanks climategate!
[Even the most rabid AGWist physics prof. Scott Mandia noticed proudly that this was not an alarmist paper, and that it shows of course that sceptics unfairly tared and feathered RC… LOL You can always count on Mandia, a faithful of climateprogress, deepclimate and other extremist caves to twist things and make that kind of comments…
But really, Gavin should have given up earlier as the quality of RC got better!]

It seems to me the changes to forest boundaries does more to change a regions weather/temp than anything else.
Should be fairly straight forward thinking to assume that when thermal breeding grounds are moved temperatures will change.
On a more massive scale it shouldn’t be hard to imagine deforestation changing climate in a local region too. If a forest is removed ten miles away wouldn’t it be conceivable that the climate will be effected? Since the deforested area now acts as a heat sink during the early day and a heat radiator during the early night. The area now acts as a light wind generator that didn’t exist before. This in turn would desiccate the border areas. Encouraging a number of new variables to the localized climate and its inhabitants.

Bill Tuttle (09:51:42) :
No worry about power lines messing up bees’ navigation system. They find their way around visually, using ultraviolet light, *not* iron particles in their guts (aside to Engiiner: where in the ever-lovin’ blue-eyed world did you hear *that*?).>>
Thanks for that Bill. Saved me the expense of building a huge electromagnet to keep the bees out of my yard. Back to solving global warming, could use some help with my funding submission, how’s this look so far:
This funding request is for a multi-decadal study of global warming mitigation strategies via micro-climate proxy investigation of long term BSI (Broad Spectrum Inactivity) and the implications of extreme short term LBI (Local Beverage Ingestion) with variable FP (Fermentation Practices). The intent is to focus the study on the most vulnerable tropical and sub-tropical locations, with data collection in rapid sequence between locations to avoid any phase delays and so requiring dedicated air transport. Should the study prove conclusive, a global mitigation strategy will have been identified with an implementation cost well below currently proposed techniques. I am aware that some other “scientists” have been critical of this approach, some having gone so far as to call it “magic”. May I point out with all due respect that the matter is urgent, the stakes high, and that any sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from science.

Peter Plail (00:40:36) :
I inspected the plants in my garden last week (in NW England), trying to work out which had been killed by the exceptionally low temperatures. I was looking for the swelling of buds on trees and bushes which usually heralds spring. I couldn’t find any evidence, so either spring is going to be pretty late this year or my garden has been turned into a collection of dead sticks.

Whereas in the Pacific Northwest, spring is early. My camellias have been in bloom for a week. The apple and cherry blossoms are going strong. Nothing global going on for either cooling or warming.

The web site, Environmental Literacy Council, quotes the International Union of Conservation of Nature’s “Red List” as follows… “as of 2007, more than 40,00 species appeared on (their) list, with 16,306 at risk of extinction.”
But the same site also chronicles the 844 extinctions since 1500 AD! About 1 to 2 extinctions a year!
How can we have about 1 extinction a year, out of a possibility of 16,000? I’d guess the polar bear is next. I where the sea gull is on the list? The starling, etc, etc. Since ClimateGate, I believe NOTHING anylonger.

Jeff Alberts (11:27:31) :
This funding request is for a multi-decadal study of global warming mitigation strategies via micro-climate proxy investigation of long term BSI (Broad Spectrum Inactivity)
Change BSI to BS and you’ll have plenty of money flowing in>>
My previous studies of short term LBI (Local Beverage Ingestion) have already shown to result in perturbations to the localized communications system in the audible spectrum that show a strongly correlated rise in BS. Communication nodes of opposite polarity to myself as the investigator have commented frequently on that matter and I have documented evidence from multiple investigations that BS is of limited value in this regard unless the communication node in question has been supplemented with at least an equal ingestion of LBI. I may however consider requesting additional funds to look at alternate BS strategies.

Willis Eschenbach (11:01:07) :
Quote: “”Excellent guess, pkj. It turns out that the fungus was transmitted exactly that way, by scientists who were investigating lots of frog species to see inter alia if they had been killed by … global warming””
Actually the long guess is that the first “scientists” were from the labs that also had the African frogs. They were running around, catching, handling, measuring, weighing, etc and not only introduced it, but spread it.

That’s strange, because in 2001, just two years after Pounds’ study, another research team, led by R.O. Lawton discovered that the actual culprit was clearing of the lowland forests below the montane cloud forests of Monteverde, which changed patterns of cloud formation. By 1992 only 18% of the lowland vegetation remained.
In 1999, the Lawton team found that Cumulus clouds were far less abundant during dry season than in the still-forested lowland regions of Nicaragua. Computer modeling later confirmed that the cloud base which was over cleared areas rose above 1800 meters by late morning, while over forests the cloud base didn’t reach that height until early afternoon.
So, it was actually farmers and ranchers who were to blame for the disappearance of the Golden Toad. Perhaps El Nino had something to do with it as well.
This certainly wouldn’t be the first time man has had a fairly significant effect on local climate via deforestation. Witness the snows of Kilimanjaro.
Unfortunately for the CAGW/CC cargo cult scientists, it has nothing to do with C02, let alone our C02.

“aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES (09:30:11) :
brc (22:25:41) :
That’s one less in the list of 30,000 species to be extinct from AGW
[…]”
please list them so we check for ourselves to see if you didn’t make that up.”
Extinction Rate per year, estimates:
40,000 – Norman Myers, 1979
27,000 – 100,000 – E.O. Wilson, 1992
250,000 – Ehrlich, 1981
These people are biologists, they have published these numbers, one should assume that they have some evidence for these estimates but they don’t. You can read up on it in Björn Lomborg’s “The skeptical environmentalist”.
It’s the Hansen game, make disastrous predictions, sell books, get airtime.

“Robert Kral (08:28:52) :
[…]
Finally, DirkH, lighten up on biologists. You know a few but hardly all of them. I’m one myself, and I know plenty of others who are AGW skeptics. The subset who perform field studies of populations might have the tendencies you describe, but I suspect there are skeptics even in that group. Let’s leave the unfounded generalizations to the Gorebots.”
I have to admit that my sample size (1 that i know personally) might be too small for generalizations. Mind you, i’d love to be wrong there.

Consider the billions of dollars and hours of time wasted on a “problem” that is based on “made up facts”.
This is sickening but consistent with the notion that if you can repeat the same lie from enough different sources, people will believe it is the truth.

davidmhoffer re: LBI and BS
I observed the same findings. However, I also discovered that when LBI increased from LBI/T to LBI2/1/2t the observed BS outcome was overrun by random noise, which increased as the value of LBI went from 4.4/h to 6.32/h. I would have continued observations but it became increasingly hazardous to do so when my LBI/T was only 1.4.

In all likelihood, a cohort of the same species but resistant frogs is happily breeding somewhere and taking full advantage of the greater resources available now that their less-fit brethren are gone.
I’ve long loved biology but abhor the loudest biologists with their half-witted comjectures masquerading as serious science.
I’ve heard the extinction hysteria as long as I can recall and it’s always been a fraud. I’ve no reason to suspect it’s true now, especially when the “researchers” happily claim that only their two trees can serve as proxies while the 28-some-odd others can’t with no explanation for why the majority of trees can’t. If 28 can’t be used as proxies, why would I believe the two selected can?
I’m telling you, it’s not going to be much longer before ALL scientists and ALL scientific conclusions are disregarded by the general public as fraudulent, and the scientists will have no one but themselves to blame.

Reposted: my post disappeared! If it somehow returns, forgive the repitition.
What do you want to bet that there’s a cohort of the same species, resistant to the pathogen, happily breeding in a location not found by the researchers and doing quite well with more resources available since their less-fit brethren are gone?
It’s not going to be long before ALL science is ignored by the general public weary of the consistent lies and misinformation.
And how did this bunch get away with TWO trees out of 30 yet not a word why the two trees are supposedly proxies while the VAST majority aren’t???? Who falls for this nonsense???

Personally I think enviro-hysteria is an effect of the spread of toxo plasmosis among left wing cat owners, which is known to affect brain chemistry and increase tendencies for paranoia and “crazy cat lady” behavior… Pamela, you’re a medical researcher, this sounds like something to do some medical surveys on…

Bruce Cobb – “Unfortunately for the CAGW/CC cargo cult scientists, it has nothing to do with C02, let alone our C02.”
Has anyone had a thorough look at this paper re: CO2 concentrations in the past?http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/realCO2-1.htm
very well put together IMO. I have always had problems with substituting proxies for real data – i.e. ice core samples

“I note in passing that the 2007 Working Group I report uses the terms “uncertain” or “uncertainty” more than 1,300 times in its 987 pages, including what it identified as 54 “key uncertainties” limiting our mastery of climate prediction.”
If correct then that’s slightly 1 “uncertainty” per page. Yet they are 90%+ confident of AGW.

Sean Peake (13:18:42) :
davidmhoffer re: LBI and BS
I observed the same findings. However, I also discovered that when LBI increased from LBI/T to LBI2/1/2t the observed BS outcome was overrun by random noise, which increased as the value of LBI went from 4.4/h to 6.32/h. I would have continued observations but it became increasingly hazardous to do so when my LBI/T was only 1.4>>
Probably well that you did. There’s a point where the total amount of LBI is in danger of causing a positive feedback loop. This is not the same as the RATE of LBI, you have to integrate the LBI rate across the duration of the session in time to arrive at the total intake, and then subtract from that the amount removed from the system by metabolic exclusion. As the total amount retained rises, the JI (Judgment Index) falls, causing further increases in the rate of LBI. This positive feedback loop persists until physical coordination of all processes begins to break down resulting in a Tipping Point. I will be applying for grants to study this as well because the understanding of how positive feedback loops cause Tipping Points has practical applications in climate science.
mods~ forgive me. I don’t mean to hijack the thread but I couldn’t let the tipping point line go. I will stop now.

I guesss it is possible that I am guessing wrong about the source of funding, but it really frosts me off to think that my hard earned tax dollars is being wasted on studies like this over global warming.
This while the Government is spending us into bankruptcy

Ale Gorney (15:24:11) :
It is not clear what you are asking for in your blog entry. Are you say others who agree with your methods and can reproduce the results of your methods?
Or,
are you saying that the temperature readings from the stations that have been dropped are the same as those that have been retained?
There is a vital difference.

DeNihilist;
Has anyone had a thorough look at this paper re: CO2 concentrations in the past?http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/realCO2-1.htm
>>
Yeah, I just saw that guy’s post on a thread on the Economist. Got into a debate with a warmest and started posting supporting links. One of them is REAL interesting (see below). The site is hard to navigate, but the graph shows CO2, temps, and sunspots 1800 to 1970. If its accurate, clearly shows that temps lead CO2 when they rise and that CO2 was much higher in the early 1800’s when it was much colder. If this stuff is credible would make for a great guest post.http://www.biokurs.de/eike/daten/berlin30507/berlin9e.htm

OT
We are being asked to sacrifice many, many trillions of dollars to shave a small fraction off a trace gas from the atmosphere. Here is what a trillion dollars looks like in $100 bills.Caution: don’t have Coke or coffee in you mouth when readinghttp://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html

Ale Gorney (15:24:11),
What are you talking about? When I read your post here @10:53:50, I simply referred you to the thread where tamino was being discussed since this is the wrong thread. Your link hasn’t been changed that I can tell, so why post it here again? Tamino may have toadlike qualities, but this is the wrong thread.
There isn’t much doubt that tamino gets his echo chamber true believers to post as many links to his blog as possible here for the free advertising. I notice other alarmist bloggers do the same thing. Is the favor reciprocated? I doubt it.
Since I almost never visit the Schmidt/Mann RC blog, or Foster’s tiny blog, or Connolley’s or Romm’s, etc., maybe you could go to those blogs and put in a plug for WUWT – the “Best Science” site.
Thanx, chief… oh, and while you’re at it, let’s look at the Wikio ratings to see who’s on top: click.
Sorry about tamino. His blog’s not even listed that I can see. Maybe on a lower rated page. That’s because Wikio rates Science sites – and science requires skepticism. See?

Ale Gorney (15:24:11) :
Wrong thread, unless you’re referring to Tamino as a toad. His whining has been discussed several times today here: click
It starts around 4:45 a.m.
You edited out the link to Tamino’s blog calling you out….. interesting that you would censor that information from the readers of your blog. Are you afraid of something ? Looks like it. Here’s the link again,

Ale, I’ve tried to leave THREE comments at that site and each has been refused my the mod. None contained vulgarities or ad homs, but my opinions and comments on their threads. Needless to say, I wholeheartedly disagree with them but have not been rude.
So don’t come here whining about moderators, because your guy is frankly scared to death to have even a hint of dissent on his blog.
As far as I can tell, Tamino is a thin-skinned fraud.

I am sad. I liked the way the toads were always accurate to 0.1 deg K with their global temperature evaluations – very professional of them. With all the toadometers now dead, we’ll never be able to accurately predict AGW again. Doom.

Ale Gorney (15:24:11) :
from your link:
<i.It has now been independenly confirmed, by multiple persons
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Could you tell us who these independent ‘persons’ are? Would they tell us how they arrived at their conclusion? Would they be willing to come here and lay out what they did for all to see?

Ale Gorney (15:24:11) :
from your link:claiming that you can’t replicate my results without my code.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Would you provide your code? All scientists are happy to have their work tested. So I am sure you are happy to do it too.
But maybe you are not a scientist. How could we know since we don’t know who you are.
[Notice: As it happens, “Ale Gorney” is a troll. He/she also goes by at least five other names. If Anthony were not on vacation, no doubt he would have caught this right away. ~ctm and I are moderating in his place. But better late than never – I’m deleting all “Ale Gorney” posts right now. ~dbs, mod.]

Jimbo (15:50:07) :
OT
We are being asked to sacrifice many, many trillions of dollars to shave a small fraction off a trace gas from the atmosphere. Here is what a trillion dollars looks like in $100 bills.
Caution: don’t have Coke or coffee in you mouth when readinghttp://www.pagetutor.com/trillion/index.html
============
“Feb 1, 2010 … President Obama’s $3.834 trillion budget…”
No wonder they are looking for a new tax base.
No wonder they are trying to create a new economy (green),
the real economy can’t support their spending.

*******************************
“Popping a Quiff” (17:37:47) :
Ale Gorney (15:24:11) :
from your link:
<i.It has now been independenly confirmed, by multiple persons
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Could you tell us who these independent ‘persons’ are? Would they tell us how they arrived at their conclusion? Would they be willing to come here and lay out what they did for all to see?
*******************************
Lucia has a list of attempted replications by various people including Roy Spencer. It boils down to the fact that anomalies are calculated, not absolute temperatures. Since only anomalies are used, it does not matter if thermometers in colder regions drop out, the temperature increase or decrease will remain in the data. The argument isn't over yet.
"Timeline of “The march of the thermometers” meme
2 March, 2010 (11:17) | Data Comparisons Written by: lucia
I have to admit I initially missed the whole “march of the thermometers results in overwhelming bias” and now I’m trying to put together a time-line. Mind you, I knew this meme was out there, but since there has never been any convincing evidence the march of the thermometers actually caused any large bias in the reported surface temperatures, I never expected it to get quite as much play as it did. I guess if subscribed to cable TV, I would have noticed this meme had hit the big time sooner. "http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/timeline-of-the-march-of-the-thermometers-meme/
She has other related articles also:http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/the-pure-anomaly-method-aka-a-spherical-cow/http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/guest-post-invitiation-to-chiefio/

davidmhoffer (08:32:02) :
“I was also wonder if they have actually gone extinct. Has anyone been tracking the amount of toad stools in the area to see if they are declining as well?”
Ah, typos. We all make them. The accurate way is to count “toads’ tools” and multiply by 2.

~dbs, mod
I have used a few different names. It’s only because I get bored with the handle I use so I switch it. Hope theres not a problem with that
signed,
Just want truth…, Photon without a Higgs, aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES

Lee Kington (23:59:22) :“…And while the Earth may be headed toward significant change (eventually) the ‘trouble’ may well be from from this rather than the little blip of warming over the past century:http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png“
Boy that graph does not give me the warm fuzzies, especially when we are due for another Ice Age. Time to add a little more CO2 to the atmosphere.

latitude (05:58:43) :“Engiiner (04:33:51) :
Quote: “The honey bee problem with Sudden Colony Collapse is probably related to Climate Change also.”
Nope, linked to a new class of biological insecticides made from a Bacillus.”
Do you know if they have found out what has been causing the die off in the bat populations?

davidmhoffer (11:21:59) :Thanks for that Bill. Saved me the expense of building a huge electromagnet to keep the bees out of my yard.
The most effective way of doing that is to convince your neighbor to relocate his flower garden about 100 meters downwind. He may balk initially, but that’s what gentlepersonly discussion is all about.Back to solving global warming, could use some help with my funding submission, how’s this look so far:“…I am aware that some other “scientists” have been critical of this approach, some having gone so far as to call it “magic”. May I point out with all due respect that the matter is urgent, the stakes high, and that any sufficiently advanced magic is indistinguishable from science.”
Excellent. A good, strong finish, with a Clarke reference that will appeal both to those reviewers who think that only *they* got it and to those who don’t understand it, but will be wary of offending someone of the Wiccan persuasion.

Researcher Kevin Anchukaitis sampled nearly 30 old trees in the Monteverde cloud forest before finding two whose climate data could be extracted.
Although I’m not a toad hugger, this study has as much validity as Mann and Briffa at Yamal. Based on two trees out of thirty, give me a break. What this study indicates once again is trees are a highly unreliable source of climate information. [At least he used two trees.]

In too many cases, anecdotal information is used to either prove or disprove global warming – by disprove I mean an argument that some isolated phenomenon proves that the Earth is actual getting colder.

This is but one more example of the “products” manufactured by that neo-science-business-show sub-culture and which is the accumulation of statistical crazy data, a whole one inch deep sea of “knowledge”, a dark matter entanglement of petty truths and dying paradigmas , such an end is wrongly perceived as a “world apocalypsis” while it is really confined to only a part of the society of the english speaking countries. You don´t see it because you are inmmersed in it.

I recently heard from a Japanese biologist that human beings (in fact, some toad researcher!) brought the chytrid fungus into the place in question. Thus, this is actually anthropogenic influence on the ecosystem, but no relation to the climate change.

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