US trading continues to be volatile, still driven by Syria-related headlines as well as today's jobs data. The Dow Jones index is back in positive territory for the day, up 40 points at 14977....

And that's where I'm going to clock off. Back on Monday for more of the same. Thanks, and goodnight. GW.

4.35pm BST

A worker repairing a pavement in Athens today, with the ancient Acropolis Hill in the background. Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP

Back in Greece, schoolteachers have decided to take the sheen off Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras’ much-anticipated speech on the state of the county’s economy tomorrow (details at 11.18am) by announcing rolling strikes later this month.

Our correspondent in Athens, Helena Smith, reports:

Just as Antonis Samaras is preparing to talk up the Greek economy – in a speech that is expected to emphasise that the debt-stricken nation’s dependence on foreign lenders could “soon” be over – unions are girding for battle. Primary and secondary school teachers have announced five-day rolling strikes beginning September 16. Educators in both sectors voted overwhelmingly to conduct the strikes in a massive display of opposition over government plans to lay off thousands of teachers by the end of the year.

The protests, which will begin with a protest demonstration in Syntagma square tonight, are likely to wreak havoc on the education system and be a major embarrassment for a government desperately trying to keep the social peace by insisting that Greece’s days under international stewardship are now numbered. “If need be we will bring the whole system down,” exclaimed one leading unionist as she demonstrated outside the national economy ministry recently. “After so many years of recession and cuts, these measures are totally barbaric.”

Athens’ former mayor Nikitas Kaklamanis, a member of Samaras’ centre right New Democracy party, has added to the gloom telling radio listeners today that the government’s much-touted “success story” was well and truly over.

"Some time ago I asked the finance minister how many investments above one million euro, either by Greeks or foreigners, had been made in Greece in 2012 and do you know what the answer was? Four!,” he said. “To speak about development and growth when that is the official answer is to make a mockery of the situation. I believe that the success story has well and truly been relocated to the past.”

4.26pm BST

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research thinktank has predicted that the UK economy grew by a rumbustious 0.9% in the three months to the end of August, or more than 3.6% on an annualised basis.

That follows a string of strong economic data in recent weeks, and is an improvement on last month's reading -- when NIESR estimated that GDP rose by 0.7% in the May-July quarter.

The group also predicted slower growth in the months ahead:

Looking ahead, the rate of growth will likely soften, somewhat, over coming quarters. The external environment in the guise of weak demand from the Euro Area and slowing emerging markets will likely limit the rate of the UK’s economic expansion.

And even after such a good August, Britain's GDP is still 2.7% below its pre-crisis peak, with this recovery still the slowest on record.

Photograph: NIESR

Updated at 4.27pm BST

4.23pm BST

First it was Germany's banks (8.07am) now it's America's car industry which is feeling the love from the ratings agencies...

Back in Europe, and the Open Europe thinktank has published an interesting theorette today - about how Germany's far left Die Linke party could hold the balance of power after the general elections on 22 September:

It all relies on the fact that parties need to win 5% of the vote to win seats in the Bundestag, and Angela Merkel's coalition partners, the Free Democrats, are hovering close to the cliff-edge. Should FPD drop below 5%, Merkel's CDU would (probably) not win a majority on their own, so Die Linke could prop up a left-leaning coalition instead.

One problem with this theory is that the Social Democrat's have ruled out a deal with their left-wing friends (or 'nutters', as Open Europe puts it). But election results can lead to funny alliances....

The market is taking this morning’s somewhat disappointing data as suggesting that the Fed will not taper in September. I am not so sure that is the case. The detailed numbers also illustrate the problem of growing inequality in American society.

That's an interesting line for El-Erian to take, given Pimco's exposure to the US bond market (where bond prices fall when tapering looks more likely).

financial acrobat (@finansakrobat)

Attempting reverse psychology at this point. RT @fxmacro: *PIMCO'S EL-ERIAN SAYS FED WILL STILL TAPER IN SEPTEMBER

Capital Economics says today's US jobs data is a "mixed bag". The Fed could take it as a green light to start tapering its QE programme (as the unemployment rate fell), or as a warning (as June and July's data was revised down).

Our best guess is that the cumulative evidence of improvement over the past year will convince a majority of officials that the tapering should begin at the next FOMC meeting later this month, but we're not going to pretend this is a certainty.

3.03pm BST

That didn't last long. The Dow is now off by 120 points, and European markets are also in the red.

I don't think US unemployment is the reason, though. World leaders are speaking to the press in St Petersburg following the G20 summit, and there's no breakthrough over Syria. Instead, president Putin has declared that he and president Obama are still at odds.

The Wall Street opening bell has been rung, and shares are inching higher in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average is up 47 points at 14985, +0.3%, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rising by similar amounts.

Updated at 2.40pm BST

2.29pm BST

Our Wall Street correspondent Dominic Rushe writes:

Unemployment in the US fell slightly to 7.3% in July, its lowest level in over four years, but the sluggish pace of recovery continued as the economy added just 169,000 new jobs.

The latest nonfarm payroll figures come at a crucial moment for the Federal Reserve, which is weighing when and whether to cut its $85bn-a-month economic stimulus programme, known as quantitative easing (QE). Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has tied cuts in QE to the health of the job market. The federal reserve open markets committee (FOMC), which is split on when to pull back on the QE programme, meets on September 17-18.

The jobless rate has now fallen from 8.1% a year ago but the pace of job creation remains slow and the Labor Department revised down its numbers for the previous two months after concluding job growth was less than expected.

The US added jobs in retail, healthcare, food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and wholesale trade in August, said the bureau of labor statistics.

Taper off?

Traders in the City and on Wall Street are calculating that today's Non-Farm Payroll report makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will begin slowing its stimulus package this month. And when tapering begins, it could be at a slower rate than previously expected.

With fewer jobs created in August than expected (169k vs 184k), and 74,000 fewer people hired in the previous too months, America's labour market does not look as strong as expected.

And with the turmoil in the Middle East continuing, the Fed has other reasons to be cautious.

The Fed is currently buying $85bn of bonds each month through its quantitative easing bond-buying programme every month. So the longer it runs, and the slower it tapers, the more money will be pumped into the system.

1.49pm BST

Market reaction

Shares are rallying, gold is up, and the dollar is down since the US jobs data was released.

Most currencies are strengthening against the US dollar -- sterling has gained half a cent to $1.564. Emerging market currencies are bouncing, with the Brazilian real up 1% against the dollar. The euro has gained 0.2%.

In London the FTSE 100 is up 20 points. And gold is up $20 per ounce at $1,388/oz.

1.43pm BST

Some instant reaction:

Ezra Klein (@ezraklein)

169k jobs in August. Unemployment down to 7.3%. Pretty near expectations, and remember, it'll be revised, perhaps dramatically, next month.

At 7.3%, America's jobless rate is its lowest since December 2008 (down from 7,4% last month).

But that may not be a good sign, because the US Labour department has also reported that the labour force participation rate has dropped to 63.2%, the lowest since August 1978. That means more people have simply dropped out of America's potential workforce.

1.35pm BST

July's non-farm payroll has been revised lower, to +104,000 new jobs -- that's sharply lower than the 162,000 that was reported a month ago.

And fewer new jobs were created in June as well -- 172,000, not the 188,000 that was expected.

That means 74,000 fewer American jobs were created in June and July than we thought.

Other key things to watch out for in the Non-Farm statement (coming in 8 minutes...) include .... the headline US unemployment rate (7.4% last month), the measures of average earnings (is pay going up?), and the labour force participation rate (measuring the percentage of the population available for work).

Analysts will also be watching to see if the US Labour Department revises its previous data.

1.13pm BST

This Bloomberg graph shows how the borrowing costs of major economies such as the UK and Germany, and emerging markets, have risen since the prospect of the Fed slowing, or 'tapering', its bond-buying programme emerged

What happens if August's US non-farm payroll is significantly different from the consensus forecast of 180,000 new jobs?

Joe Bond of City firm Abshire Smith has some suggestions for how markets could react -- based on the idea that a strong reading increases the chances that the Fed will start cutting its bond-buying stimulus programme this month.

• Above 200K jobs would see the US dollar (USD) bid across the board, further weakness for emerging market currencies and gold

• 170-200K would still be bullish (average print for the year slightly north of 180K)

• Below 170K would be a poor number, with USD offered, and Gold bid

•Anything below 120K would be a huge disappointment, providing large volatility for USD and Gold.

12.43pm BST

I mentioned earlier that the consensus forecast is that 180,000 new jobs were created in the US last month. Each analyst, though, has a different guesstimate -- and they range from just 79,000 to as much as 220,000, as market analysts RANsquawk explains:

Non-farm payroll coming soon...

Just 45 minutes to go until the US jobs data for August is released (at 1.30pm BST, or 8.30am EDT), and European markets are jittery. Most indices are lower, as traders wait for the big number of the day.

Chris Beauchamp of IG Index says it's been a nervous morning after some busy days:

It’s been a busy week really; economic news, geopolitical concerns and tapering worries have all have been thrown at investors in one form or another...the overall impression is one of extreme caution.

With non-farm payrolls out today, this caution has only been heightened.

12.16pm BST

One for twitter users who want to relive the dark days of Lehman Brothers:

Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart)

DEFINITELY #FF: @TBTFLive tweeting the the financial crisis as it happened in 2008. Should be chilling.

Germany has reported a sharp fall in industrial production during July.

Output across German industry dropped by 1.7% on a month-on-month basis, much worse than the 0.5% drop that was expected.

The German economy ministry said the drop was due "not least" to a strong June (when output jumped by 2%), insisting that conditions are improving:

The weak phase is over... Overall, the upward trend appears to be continuing moderately in manufacturing and significantly stronger in construction.

But with exports dropping by 1.1% in July (see 8.01am), it doesn't feel like July was a knockout month for Germany.

11.18am BST

The Greek city of Thessaloniki, and a poster advertising a protest rally taking place tomorrow night. Photograph: Alexandros Michailidis/Demotix/Corbis

Speaking of Greece... security will be tight in the city of Thessaloniki tomorrow when prime minister Antonis Samaras visits its annual trade fair

Local media report that 4,000 police officers, including motorcycle patrols and two helicopters, will be on duty at the 78th Thessaloniki International Fair (TIF), which Samaras will open with a keynote speech.

Samaras is expected to argue that the Greek economy is improving (so he should be encouraged by this morning's GDP data).

Government opponents, though, will be holding an anti-austerity rally on Saturday, from 6pm Greek time.

Greece's Kathimerini newspaper has more details:

The premier, who is to address businessmen in the morning and not in the traditional evening speech, will reportedly try to reassure entrepreneurs, and citizens in general, that Greece's economy is improving, slowly but surely, and that no more austerity measures are on the cards.

Samaras is also expected to stress the importance of Greece clinching a primary surplus this year, as appears likely, as this will allow the government to offer some relief to lower-income Greeks. The premier had indicated in an interview last week that 70 percent of the primary surplus, if it is achieved, will go toward support for those on low pensions.

Updated at 11.18am BST

11.06am BST

Greece's long, grim depression could finally be turning a corner.

Its economy is still contracting, but at a rather slower pace.

The country's economy shrank by 3.8% on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter of this year, updated data shows. That's a significantly smaller decline than the 5.6% annual contraction measured in the first three months.

Greece doesn't report quarter-on-quarter data like most other countries, so it's hard to tell exactly how the economy performed between April and June. It's clear, though, that the contraction must have eased.

Good timing, as the eurozone faces up to the task of patching up its finances again next year.

Updated at 11.06am BST

10.32am BST

Photograph: FACUNDO ARRIZABALAGA/EPA

The British public are taking Mark Carney seriously, even if the City are not.

A quarterly survey of inflation expectations found that the number of people who expect interest rates to rise in the next 12 months has fallen to its lowest level since November 2008, at just 29%.

Inflation expectations have also fallen to the lowest since August 2012.

The survey of 2,500 Brits took between August 8th and 13th. Carney announced on August 7th that rates will not rise from their record lows until the UK jobless rate has dropped to 7% from 7.8%, which the Bank doesn't see until 2016.

Governor Carney should be reassured by this data, particularly as inflation expectations are one factor that could force him to abandon the plan.

Some City traders, though, are pricing in a rate rise by the end of 2014.

The survey also found that public confidence in the Bank of England had dropped to a nine-month low, with a net balance of +15 people believing it was doing a good job.

10.09am BST

The disappointing UK trade and industrial production data this morning have prompted experts to warn that economic conditions in Britain, and beyond, may not be as rosy as hoped

Christopher Vecchio (@CVecchioFX)

Signs of a global slowdown? In July, UK exports of goods to countries outside of the EU decreased by £2.2B to £11.8B.

Britain's widening trade gap in July (9.40am )was primarily caused by a sharp drop in exports to countries outside the EU. Exports of all commodities except fuel fell during the month, the Office for National Statistics reported, led by a decrease in exports of "finished manufactures".

Here's the key points from the ONS release:

Seasonally adjusted, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £3.1bn in July, compared with a deficit of £1.3bn in June.

There was a deficit of £9.9bn on goods, partly offset by an estimated surplus of £6.8bn on services.

Exports of goods fell 7.6% on the month to £24.8bn for July 2013. Imports for the same period fell 1.0% to £34.7bn

In July 2013, exports of goods to countries outside of the European Union (EU) decreased by £2.2bn to £11.8bn. Exports to countries within the EU increased by £0.2bn over the same period to £13bn.

On a slightly longer-term view, imports outstripped exports over the last three months:

The deficit on trade in goods increased £0.3bn to £26.8bn in the three months to July 2013 from £26.5bn in the three months to April 2013. Exports of goods in the three months to July 2013 increased to £77.4bn and compared to the previous year, increased by 1.6%. Imports of goods also increased over the same period to a record high of £104.2bn and compared to the previous year, increased by 3.1%.

Updated at 10.04am BST

9.40am BST

UK trade deficit widens and industrial production stays flat

Britain's trade deficit more than doubled in July, and industrial production failed to grow as expected.

The data, just released, is a rare reversal for the UK after recent strong economic statistics that have suggested the recovery has legs.

The UK trade deficit in goods and services widened to £3.085bn, the worst monthly reading since October 2012. Twice as wide as June's figure, it doesn't suggest that that UK economy has moved into a more robust, manufacturing led revival as hoped (although these monthly readings are rather volatile).

Industrial production, meanwhile, was flat month-on-month in July, dashing hopes of a 0.1% rise. Within the data, manufacturing rose by 0.2% month-on-month, compared with hopes of a 0.3% rise.

There was drama in the Cyprus parliament last night where MPs rejected crucial legislation related to its bailout package, before eventually falling into line.

A vote on laws to bring its 'co-operation banks' under the control of the Cypriot central bank was narrowly defeated, raising the sudden threat that its aid programme could be derailed. But after meeting late into the night, the legislation was finally approved:

Reuters reports:

In a marathon voting session, legislators agreed to a clause enabling co-op banks to receive €1.5bn ($1.97bn) in bailout money.

In an earlier vote, it had been narrowly rejected by lawmakers from the island's opposition left-wing parties, who oppose any bailout conditions.

Parliamentary approval for restructuring co-ops, which are small commercial lenders, is crucial to Cyprus receiving the next aid installment of €1.5bn from international lenders. The money will be ploughed into the lenders to recapitalise them. In a second vote in the early hours of Friday, parliament approved the restructuring of the co-ops, finance ministry sources said.

The second vote was in the great traditions of European Union democracy, argues Michael Hewson of CMC Markets:

There was two votes in the Cypriot parliament before politicians arrived at the “right” decision with respect to the latest bailout package in what has become a very European past time. If you don’t get the result you want in the first vote, vote again until you get the right outcome.

A demonstrator shouting slogans next to a Cyprus national flag, during an anti-bailout protest outside of the parliament. Photograph: Petros Karadjias/AP

8.20am BST

David Smith (@dsmitheconomics)

Halifax house price index up 0.4% August, 2.1% latest three months, 5.4% on year earlier. Mortgage approvals up 10% in latest three months.

One more gobbet of economic news -- UK house prices are rising at their fastest rate since 2010.

Halifax reported that prices jumped by 5.4% in the three months to August, compared with a year ago. However, the lender argues that the trend is slowing, as prices were only up by 0.4% last month compared with 0.9% in July.

Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis reckons:

Relatively modest economic growth and below inflation rises in earnings are likely to act as a brake on the market. Overall, house prices are expected to rise gradually over the remainder of the year.

But while prices keep rising, critics of George Osborne will probably keep warning that the chancellor is fueling a dangerous housing bubble with his 'help to buy'mortgage subsidy scheme.

8.09am BST

French consumer confidence is also up, rising from 82 in July in 84 in August.

Best reading since April, showing a recovery from the record low of 79 high in May and June. Still some way to get back to the long-term average of 100, though...

8.07am BST

There's good news for Germany's banks this morning. Moody's has raised its outlook on the sector from negative to stable, which removes the threat of a downgrade.

The ratings agency said the move reflected " a year of reduced crisis-related losses and improved capital strength". It cited four reasons for the upgrade:

prospects of a stable operating environment due to an improving economy and benign credit environment;

continued strengthening of the banks' capital buffers due, in part, to more stringent capital requirements;

the stabilising effect of an ongoing reduction in high-risk assets and deleveraging; and

But we can be hopeful that the picture will change for the better in coming months. Leading indicators in industrial states - from the United States to Britain and the euro zone states - are pointing upwards.

Arguably a Germany that imports a little more, and exports a little less, is good for the rest of the eurozone as it tries to rebalance its economy.

Over in France, the trade deficit widened to €5.109bn in July, from €4.484bn in June. The French Customs Office blamed a jump in imports due to higher energy costs, and supplies for its aerospace industry.

7.41am BST

Waiting for Non-Farm

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the latest events across the global economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and the business world.

Today's big event in the financial world is the latest US jobs data, which will be unleashed on an expectant financial world after lunchtime in Europe (1.30pm BST, or 8.30am New York time).

The non-farm payroll always makes a splash, as it shows how many new jobs were created (or lost) in the world's biggest economy the previous month. Today's number is pretty special – it could prompt America's Federal Reserve central bank to start slowing its stimulus package, if it judges that the US economy is finally strong enough to take it.

Economists expect around 180,000 new jobs were created in the US last month (excluding the agriculture sector), up from 162,000 in July. But non-farm is notoriously tricky to predict....

This graph from Marketwatch shows the monthly non-farm payroll since the start of last year -- job creation has been generally steady, rather than spectacular...

Photograph: Bureau of Labour Statistics

The implications of the Fed 'tapering' its $85bn bond-buying programme are significant for the world economy. Taper anticipation is one factor pushing up government borrowing costs (the UK 10-year gilt yield hit 3% yesterday, while 10-year bund yields are over 2%).

Also coming up today, we have trade data from key European countries and the latest UK industrial output stats. Germany has already reported a surprise drop in exports in July (more to follow...)

I'll also be watching the eurozone closely, as speculation mounts over a future aid package for Greece in 2014....