Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

We already highlighted Justin Verlander and J.A. Happ in our 8/14/18 picks article. We also highlighted the Arizona Diamondbacks and Toronto Blue Jays as a popular game stacks at their respective team price points. Here we will look at some other (possible GPP) considerations.

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Pitchers

Kluber falls into the GPP only mold for me tonight for a couple reasons. First of all, after a bit of an outlier season in 2017 where he posted a career-high 34% K rate, he returned to his career norm this season with a 24.7% K rate but has still been very solid posting a 2.74 ERA and 3.21 xFIP and the other positive is that he doesn't allow many free passes(1.12 BB/9). Because of the lower K rate, he comes with much more variance from start to start when looking at upside. While he goes on the road tonight into a tough pitching environment in Great American Ballpark, it is actually a park upgrade compared to Progressive Field and the Indians are currently -230 favorites. The Reds have struggled lately scoring just 34 runs in their last 10 games and the third fewest since the All-Star break while striking out 23% of the time. All things considered, I think Kluber makes a nice GPP pivot off Verlander and Happ who I mentioned in the main article.

With how consistent Taillon has been I likely could have fit him into the main article tonight but the lack of strikeouts over his last two starts(5) was a bit alarming so here we are. Back to the consistency for a second. Since June 1(12 starts), Taillon has been terrific holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in all 12 starts for an impressive 2.95 ERA and 3.61 xFIP while averaging 35.3 FanDuel/18.9 DraftKings points per game. The risky part for me is the PTS/$ value as the price has gone up on both sites while he sits with just an average 21% K rate. The matchup stands out, however, as the Twins were a seller at the deadline trading Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar and have scored the 24th most runs in the second half while striking out 23% of the time. Taillon makes a nice SP2 option on DraftKings or GPP pivot on FanDuel allowing you to get some big stacks in your lineups.

With the news that Brian Dozier will undergo further testing for an irregular heartbeat, it takes away a bit of the intrigue here with the Dodgers stack but the matchup is still a good one and they will likely be a bit lower owned. The will face off against Andrew Suarez who is having an up and down rookie season where he has flashed upside but has also seen been beat up on at times. Over his last five starts, he has allowed 37 hits and 22 earned runs and if power is what we are looking for he has also allowed multiple home runs in three straight pushing his HR/FB rate up to 18.5% for the season. Looking at his overall splits, it is clear we want to target right-handed bats as he has allowed a .369 wOBA and 44.3% hard contact in the split(.224 wOBA, 29.4% hard contact to LH). With Dozier out the Dodgers will likely move Chris Taylor to leadoff and while the price is still up on DraftKings, he is an excellent value on FanDuel under $3K. The best route after that is to put the big hitters in Manny Machado and Justin Turner in your lineup. Both of them have a .400+ wOBA and 160+ wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Stay tuned to my cheatsheet when lineups come out for the top bats for the Dodgers stack.

I never get excited about stacking the Orioles as they lost two of their best hitters in Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop at the trade deadline but if you are loading up on Verlander or another top pitcher tonight you are going to need some value. The good news here is that the matchup is most definitely in their favor as they will face Jason Vargas who has been somewhat of a dumpster fire this season as he comes in witan a 8.75 ERA and while that won't stand he still sits with 5.06 xFIP. He gives up a ton of flyballs(41%) and has seen a large amount of those leave the park with an 18.5% HR/FB rate. Considering the price and upside in this matchup, I will definitely be using the O's in my GPP build tonight. Stay tuned for lineups and news on Mark Trumbo who is projected to return after missing two games on the weekend with a knee injury.