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Personally I think the Rays are the division favorite right now. They have some offensive holes but I think they are more easily fixed than any issues the Yankees have. I think the Orioles are in a similar situation to the 2008/2009 Rays. They are going to get some improvements but the bullpen was SO good this year that even a "normal good" year is going to represent a decline that's going to hurt. I don't think the Sox or Blue Jays are competing in 2013.

They have some offensive holes but I think they are more easily fixed than any issues the Yankees have.

Assuming Jennings moves over to CF, they need to find production at LF, 1B, and DH. Which basically means they just need to get the best hitters they can dredge up, with little or no worries about defense. Plus Zobrist can be put anywhere, so if a new SS somehow falls in their lap they can do almost anything they want in the offseason. As problems go, they don't have problems.

Assuming Jennings moves over to CF, they need to find production at LF, 1B, and DH. Which basically means they just need to get the best hitters they can dredge up, with little or no worries about defense. Plus Zobrist can be put anywhere, so if a new SS somehow falls in their lap they can do almost anything they want in the offseason. As problems go, they don't have problems.

(Oh, their catching sucks, but most MLB catching sucks right now.)

Doesn't Mike Napoli make a ton of sense for them? Are they going to spend any money?

Doesn't Mike Napoli make a ton of sense for them? Are they going to spend any money?

Depends on the money yeah? And whether the Rays still believe in the uber-value of catcher defense, pitch-framing, etc ... and how Napoli ranks on the fancy measures which I really have no idea.

I find Napoli a hard guy to price:

1. Just how good of a hitter is he? Take his last 4 years and it's a 129 OPS+ which is really nice. His Marcel is a bit higher. But that's largely influenced by his insane 2011. Toss that out (obvious issues) and he's a 115 OPS+.

2. Obviously a 115 OPS+ (or better) plays great at C but it's underwhelming for 1B/DH so now we have to decide how good his C defense is and his injury history and ...

3. Even if we decide he can catch well enough, we can't help but notice that he has never had more than 82 starts and usually about 70 (partly related to injuries). Are we talking 70 starts at C and 60 starts at 1B/DH?

Simplify it all by looking at WAR but it's the same problem. He has 11.1 WAR over the last 4 years but again heavily influenced by 2011. Is he a 2 WAR, 2.5 WAR or 3 WAR player? Somewhere around 3/$40 is a tough over/under for Napoli.

The Rays are going to have to do some rebuilding in the bullpen behind Rodney; whether they decide to do it from within (Archer, DeLaRosa, Ramos, maybe Colome and Torres) or go back out in search on cheap arms, which is something they do very well, is an unknown. Farnsworth, Peralta, and Howell are all free agents, and of the three only Howell is likely to draw much interest from the Rays.

Tampa has a ton of pitching depth, and they could very well roll the dice on trading Shields for offensive help.