Karger Wins New Hampshire Republican Straw Poll

Unlike Democrats who occasionally like to throw a wrench into "conventional wisdom" by supporting a wild card like Ralph Nader or nominating a relative unknown like Jimmy Carter (remember Jimmy Who?) or Barack Obama - Republicans tend to nominate the next guy in line to be their presidential nominee. Think Bob Dole and John McCain.

This year there is no solid "next in line" - though McCain's runner up, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, is perhaps the closest to a shoe-in at the moment. So imagine Romney's surprise when gay, Jewish, relatively unknown California political consultant Fred Karger beat him by 5 points in the St. Anselm College Republican Straw Poll Thursday night in New Hampshire. There were 322 ballots cast for 16 candidates and Karger won the most with 79 votes.

Given the proximity of Massachusetts to New Hampshire, and the fact that the majority of voters in the conservative Catholic College's weeklong poll identify as conservatives - Karger's straw poll win should be a warning that at least students are listening to Karger's Republican progressive message. It helped that Karger and his team campaigned at the college the entire week and was the only candidate to address the students. Karger, now in Nevada for the Republican Jewish convention, told me by phone:

"I am shocked that I won the poll. Over 65 percent of the students are from Massachusetts so they're very familiar with Romney. I hoped to maybe come in third. This is a Benedictine school so it's really incredible. Maybe it's a little game changer? We'll see."

James Pindell, Political Director of the highly regarded WMUR - ABC TV station in Manchester wrote in his blog:

“In the end, this was a big win for Karger who has been campaigning hard in the Granite State trying to make the argument that he should be taken seriously as a candidate. This straw poll should help that.”

Results from the straw Saint Anselm straw poll are below:

SAINT ANSELM COLLEGE

REPUBLICANS

PRESIDENTIAL STRAW POLL

MARCH 31st, 2011

FINAL RESULTS

Question 1: How would you describe yourself politically?

Moderate: 104 Votes

Conservative: 104 Votes

Liberal: 31 Votes

Very Conservative: 29 Votes

Libertarian: 16 Votes

Other: 11 Votes

Very Liberal: 10 Votes

Question 2: Looking ahead to the 2012 election, what would you say is the most important issue facing the nation?

Jobs & the Economy: 155 Votes

Taxes & Spending: 57 Votes

Limiting the size and growth of government: 32 Votes

Foreign Policy Issues: 24 Votes

Social Issues: 15 Votes

Immigration: 12 Votes

Other: 9 Votes

Question 3: What is your opinion of President Barack Obama?

Unfavorable: 117 Votes

Somewhat Unfavorable: 68 Votes

Somewhat Favorable: 43 Votes

No Opinion: 38 Votes

Favorable: 15 Votes

Other: 2 Votes

Question 4: Who are you most likely to support for the 2012 Republican Nomination for President?

Fred Karger, 79 Votes

Mitt Romney, 74 Votes

Donald Trump, 26 Votes

Tim Pawlenty, 24 Votes

Ron Paul, 24 Votes

Rudy Giuliani, 22 Votes

Rick Santorum, 20 Votes

Sarah Palin, 9 Votes

Herman Cain, 8 Votes

Gary Johnson, 8 Votes

Mike Huckabee, 8 votes

Newt Gingrich, 7 Votes

Haley Barbour, 3 Votes

Mitch Daniels, 2 Votes

John Bolton, 1 Vote

Rand Paul, 1 Vote

Other, 6 Votes

Here's a statement from Karger about the win:

“I am elated by this early show of support from the students, faculty and staff of St. Anselm's College. We campaigned at St. A's all week, which is exactly what I have been doing since I began this effort in New Hampshire back in February 2010. My team of college coordinators and friends worked hard to win this first Granite State straw poll of this cycle. My message of inclusion in the Republican Party and reaching out to younger people is working, and I will continue to be the one candidate who works to grow the Republican Party by campaigning right on college campuses.

I was the first to declare my interest in running for President in April 2010, the first to start an exploratory committee in July 2010 and the first to file for President just one week ago at the Federal Election Commission Washington, DC. Now we are off to a great start in New Hampshire as the campaigning begins, and it is on to South Carolina and the first Republican debate to be held in Greenville on May 5th.

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Karger's win is socially interesting and should be a (no-doubt ignored) wake-up call to the Republican party, but he'd never be the Republican candidate. The "Christian Right" would vote for Ralph Nader rather than vote for a conservative gay man.

I know it's conventional wisdom in the media that it was Mitt Romney who was the runner-up to McCain. But the way I remember it, it was Mike Huckabee - not Mitt Romney - who was the last man standing against McCain in the Republican primaries, which makes him the runner-up.

I realize that people didn't take Huckabee seriously, which is why they don't consider him the heir apparent. But that doesn't alter the fact that he had the second highest number of pledged delegates.

Coincidence I received this news item the same day Obama sent me his "personal" e-mail announcing his intent to run for re-election. Nothing in the e-mail invited me to share ideas or viewpoints with him -- just the button at the bottom: "Donate now." This is a symptom of the smug superiority complex that will make Obama a weak contender for 2012. I realize a St. Anselm straw poll is insignificant but I think it suggests that students are desperate for another outsider to give them some "hope & change." I don't think they care much whether the label is Democrat or Republican. They want someone honest and authentic.

Just proves at this stage any thing is possable and seeing how the major players are still in maybe mode any name reconition he can get early in this hands on state will help him. Remember with no real opposition for the President he could be the perfect candidate to switch sides for and vote come promary time for Democrates.

Politcs is a contat sport with no rules and Rock and roll baby its election season ready or not!