Five Horses to Bet on Louisiana Derby Day

by Dustin Fabian

March 22, 2018

This Saturday’s Louisiana Derby card at the Fair Grounds is truly a marathon.Fourteen races.Eight stakes.Three Pick 4’s.It’s the kind of card you can get lost in, which makes handicapping in advance a very worthwhile exercise.After all, handicapping with a ‘plan’ is incredibly valuable and it saves you from wasting too much bankroll on races or horses you don’t have a strong opinion on.

I’ve scoured the card and identified five horses that I think are worth including in your bets.Some are favorites, but not all of them.Some are very likely winners – others are a bit more of a reach based on the value they offer.

Plus, at Xpressbet, we’re still running our Money-Back Guarantee and 0% Takeout promotions.Simply put, they’re one of the best values in racing.This weekend, you can get your $10 Win bet on the Louisiana Derby (or Sunday’s Sunland Derby) back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd.Plus, if you hit the All-Stakes Pick 3 (Races 9 – 11) Saturday at the Fair Grounds, the takeout is on us!

Race 3 (2:24PM ET) – Costa Rising Stakes

There aren’t many surface and distance specialists signed on for the Costa Rising, a 5 ½-furlong turf sprint for Louisiana-breds.And while a lack of ‘horses for course’ isn’t exactly common in a race like this, it makes for somewhat simpler handicapping for me.Eden Grey’s Kitten has been a little down on his luck lately (he’s lost four straight), but one of those races was on the dirt and two others came against open stakes company.He’s 4-for-16 at the Fair Grounds, 5-for-16 at the distance and will get a pace to run at.Look out for him at a big price – 8/1 on the ML.

My Pick: #6 Eden Grey’s Kitten (8/1)

Race 5 (3:18PM ET) – New Orleans Ladies Overnight Stakes

When I handicap, I’m always on the lookout for horses that I can confidently single and build multi-race bets around.And in the New Orleans Ladies Stakes, I think I’ve found one such horse in the form of Mom’s On Strike.She went 3-for-3 over the winter at the Fair Grounds and found a race with enough early speed to set up her late kick.There’s no reason to believe she can’t win again.This race is the ‘get out’ leg of the Early Pick 4, so you should consider her as a single.

My Pick: #5 Mom’s On Strike (9/5)

Race 7 (4:12PM ET) – Maiden Special Weight

Statistics play a huge role in my handicapping, and most angles point to Maybe Wicked running a big race in her debut, which comes in Saturday’s 7th race.She goes out for the Brad Cox barn, which, according to my Racing Form, scores with 29% of first time turf starters, 30% of horses debuting at a mile or longer and strikes at a remarkable 32% rate at the Fair Grounds with Florent Geroux in the saddle.Plus, her sire, Mizzen Mast, is a respected turf stallion.Sounds like plenty of positive angles in an otherwise underwhelming maiden race.

My Pick: #10 Maybe Wicked (7/2)

Race 9 (5:06PM ET) – Muniz Memorial Handicap (G2)

The day’s deepest race is probably the Muniz Memorial Handicap, which attracted a loaded field of 11, including Ring Weekend, Revved Up, Forge, Synchrony, Danish Dynaformer and Mr. Misunderstood.And while none of those would be a surprise (I’d argue Synchrony and Forge are extremely possible), my pick here is a bit of a longshot – Lucullan.I loved his seasonal debut last month at Gulfstream where he effortlessly closed into a slow pace against a decent field to win by 3-lengths.He was beaten just a neck in the G3 Hill Prince Stakes last October at Belmont and he’s never been worse than 3rd in five turf tries.He teams with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens for the first time and has plenty of upside.

My Pick: #6 Lucullan (8/1)

Race 11 (6:21PM ET) – Louisiana Derby (G2)

Talk about a wide-open race!From top to bottom, you’ve got a field of horses that has successfully overcome the odds (literally) to forge their names near the top of the Triple Crown list.Bravazo was 21/1 when he nosed out Snapper Sinclair (at odds of 41/1) in the G2 Risen Star, while My Boy Jack was 9/1 when he splashed through the slop to win the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn.Any of the three could win, but so could Todd Pletcher’s Noble Indy, who adds blinkers and should be part of the early vanguard as well.The presence of so many speed horses has me looking for a closer and while the most logical of them is My Boy Jack, I’m extremely skeptical of him on a fast track.He’s 0-for-2 on a fast surface and is a hard sell at 5/2.What about Dark Templar?He’s a son of Tapit who goes out for underrated trainer Brendan Walsh.He has progressed with every start and would love a quick early tempo.If he gets one, he just may be the right horse at the right price.I don’t advocate singling him, but you may want to use him in the $200K Guaranteed All-Stakes Pick 4.

My Pick: #10 Dark Templar (12/1)

Good Luck!

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12.20.2018

As we sprint toward the holidays this weekend, the horse racing calendar is slowly creeping toward prep season. There aren’t any massive Triple Crown or Pegasus preps scheduled for this weekend, but last Sunday’s Springboard Mile may have (or may not have) shed some light on the Triple Crown prep scene in the Midwest, while the Fair Grounds has a pair of minor Saturday stakes that could pave the way to the Louisiana Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks. On the guys’ side of things, the Fair Grounds’ Sugar Bowl Stakes is full of decent horses, including late runners Super Steed and Hog Creek Hustle. Whether they ultimately are able to stretch from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles is up for a debate later, but they should be primed to run big this afternoon.And on top of that, the Fair Grounds has an enticing All-Stakes Pick 4 (Races 7 – 10) on Saturday that kicks off at 4:24PM ET. I’ll be playing it, and I hope you decide to as well. See below for my picks and brief analysis on those races.The Fair Grounds isn’t the only track with stakes racing this weekend. Gulfstream is hosting a Grade 3 – the Mr. Prospector – while Aqueduct has the Queens County and the Gravesend on Sunday. Nobody is in action Monday or Tuesday and Santa Anita returns Wednesday with a massive card featuring four graded stakes, including the Malibu and La Brea. Here is a preview – and some picks – for this Saturday’s action at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream and Aqueduct.
Gulfstream Park
Our first stop Saturday is Gulfstream Park, where our good friends in South Florida continue to put their best foot forward. We have to tip our cap to the Xpressbet customer who took down Wednesday’s Rainbow 6 and the $580,000 payday that went with it. As for Saturday’s races, I’m really looking forward to Races 8 and 9. Race 8 is an incredibly deep open turf allowance race that attracted talented horses like G2 winner Bricks and Mortar, multiple graded stakes winner Shakhimat, G3 winner Irish Strait and stakes winners Mr Cub and Zennor. If this race had a Grade 3 designation and a $100,000 purse, nobody would bat an eye. Zennor will be my top pick here and I’ll play him in an Exacta Box with Bricks and Mortar. Zennor should benefit greatly from an inside draw and he’s just getting back into form after missing a year. Race 9 is the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes and I’m going ‘all in’ on Uno Mas Modelo. He broke terribly last out in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Stakes but still circled wide and got up at the fwire. He’s won five straight sprint races (including two stakes) and he’s going to bet a perfect setup here as Conquest Big E, Coal Front (pictured above), Kroy and Heartwood will guarantee a fast early pace.
My colleague, Jeremy Plonk, made the Mr. Prospector his Race of the Week. Here's his analysis and $100 Betting Strategy.
Those two race are the first legs of the Late Pick 4 and are also included in the Late Pick 5 and Rainbow 6.
Fair Grounds
I love cards like the Saturday slate that the Fair Grounds has served up for us. 14 races. Six stakes. Rolling Pick 3’s. Four Pick 4’s. And a partridge and a pear tree (sorry, low hanging fruit and I couldn’t resist). Here’s a pick for all six stakes races, and 30 words of rationale or less. Race 3 (2:26PM ET) – Bonapaw Stakes ($75K) – 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)My Pick: #6 Kitten’s Cat (5/1)Expected faves Wynn Time and Switzerland have no turf form (combined 0-for-1) and Kitten’s Cat has finished in the Tri in 15-of-20 turf races. Race 7 (4:24PM ET) – Letellier Memorial Stakes ($75K) – 6 Furlongs (Dirt)My Pick: #10 Unholy Alliance (9/2)Speed-laden field is likely to come back to the closers and the best of them is Unholy Alliance, who goes out for leading Fair Grounds trainer, Brad Cox. Race 8 (4:53PM ET) – Blushing K.D. Stakes ($75K) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)My Pick: #4 Dubara (GB) (6/1) I’ve been chasing this filly since she showed up at Ellis in July and she might finally mow them down late if she gets the right pace to close into. Race 9 (5:22PM ET) – Tenacious Stakes ($75K) – 1 Mile 70 Yards (Dirt)My Pick: #7 Tom’s d’Etat (9/5)He’s won 5-of-8 races and this is a soft spot for him to make his stakes debut. He should win this and go on to bigger and better next time. Race 10 (5:51PM ET) – Buddy Diliberto Memorial Stakes ($75K) – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)My Pick: #5 Big Changes (3/1)He loves to win races and he’s trained and ridden by the best – Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. He should sit second and then pounce on Great Wide Open. Race 11 (6:20PM ET) – Sugar Bowl Stakes ($75K) – 6 FurlongsMy Pick: #9 Super SteedBroke miserably in his last race and still won by 6-lengths. A tardy start would be a huge problem here but otherwise it looks like smooth sailing.
Aqueduct
The stakes aren’t quite as high at Aqueduct Saturday but I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring up the $125,000 Queens County Stakes, which attracted a big field of ten, including G3 winner Name Changer and Godolphin’s Exulting. On paper, just about any of these could win but I’m going to hitch my wagon to Name Changer. He’s a G3 winner and exits a really solid edition of the Pennsylvania Derby Championship Stakes, where he was beaten by Aztec Sense, who went on to win the Claiming Crown Jewel. I’ll have him on my ticket, along with Degrom, who is improving for John Servis and Todd Pletcher’s duo of Bal Harbor and Bonus Points.

2.22.2018

'Another one bites the dust,' is the usual saying. However, this weekend more than 'one' sampled dust or, more appropriately, 'mud.' In a pair of Road to the Kentucky Derby starting gate qualifying point races--Risen Star at Fair Grounds and Southwest at Oaklawn Park--two strong favorites, Instilled Regard at 7/5 and Mourinho at 6/5, failed. What's worse is that they didn't just lose, they were off the board. Out of the money. Trifecta MIA's! Those results continued a February trend that saw favorites in such races win just 2 of 7 overall. Avery Island and Paved were the punctual choices but both wins merit asterisks. The former came at around even money against just four rivals in the Withers at Aqueduct. The latter belongs to a filly that's not even on the Derby trail. She won the El Camino Real Derby Saturday at Golden Gate as the slight favorite on a synthetic surface. That's it. No more Derby prep races in February. Just when the 'fastest-two-minutes-in-sports' picture should be clarifying, it's as murky as the Mississippi bottom. Kicking things off February 3 in the chase for Kentucky Derby starting gate qualifying points were tarnished favorites Enticed in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream--a 2-1 choice that could only manage fourth behind dominating 3-1 winner Audible--and Shivermetimbers in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita--nowhere as 2-1 favorite behind 9-1 winner Lombo. A week later, Catholic Boy committed a mortal sin by failing at 70-cents-to-the-dollar in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Flameaway delivered the devilish upset at over 10-1.The rash of vanquished Kentucky Derby prep-race public-choices continued President's Day weekend. Saturday, at Fair Grounds in Louisiana, Bravazo, a 21-1 shot, outlasted Snapper Sinclair, at 41-1 odds, to ignite Risen Star mutuels. Monday, at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, My Boy Jack rode the rail at nearly 9-1 over a sticky, muddy surface to close for victory over a pair of nearly 5-1 shots--Combatant and Sporting Chance, to upset the Southwest Stakes. The weekend's most valuable Derby points prep race was the Risen Star and it produced perplexing results. It's not that winner Bravazo--now top dog with 54 Derby qualifying points-- isn't talented. And it's great to have 82-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back in the limelight. But the race raised more questions than provided answers. Off the turn, heavily-favored Instilled Regard loomed menacingly, perfectly positioned to assert his authority under Javier Castellano. He never followed through. On a racetrack that appeared to act as a conveyor belt (hardly any runners altered positions in the race) front-running longshots Bravazo and Snapper Sinclair were propelled to the finish together. Instilled Regard drifted in a bit through the lane and lost third late to Noble Indy. Conveyer belt or not the favorite was a disappointment.In the Southwest, Mourinho flopped as the 1/5 darling. But that wasn't half the story. When a California invader trained by Baffert fails in Hot Springs it's headline news. Man bites dog! Sun sets in the east! Browns win Super Bowl! So, Doctor Redboard, what happened to Mourinho in the Southwest? Glad you asked. The course was compromised. Yes, everyone ran over the same soggy, sticky mess but, as usual, some handled it better than others. Winning rider Kent Desormeaux, one-half of the world-famous 'Galloping Desormeaux Brothers,' described the drying-out surface's consistency as "peanut butter." Jiff, Skippy, chunky or smooth is anyone's guess. No matter. Winner My Boy Jack gobbled it up. Mourinho appeared allergic. He finished fourth. Closer examination of Mourinho's past performance lines reveals tiny veneer cracks. His maiden triumph was impressive enough, leaving Peace (maiden winner) and eventual Lecomte victor Instilled Regard in his wake. However, second-time out in the Speakeasy going six furlongs at Santa Anita, Mourinho blew a three-length stretch lead to finish second at 30-cents-to-the-dollar! Can you say, 'Red Flag?' Historically, heavily-favored Baffert runners blow three-length stretch leads at Santa Anita about as often as Gulfstream Park races start precisely at post time. In his third outing, at seven furlongs in the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Santa Anita, Mourinho again disappointed as favorite when second to talented Greyvitos. Conversely, Southwest victor My Boy Jack has steadily developed. Seven consecutive increased or paired Beyer/Thoro-Graph figures tell the story. That the majority of his races were on turf probably clouded the 'Jack issue for horseplayers, but his last try in the Sham Stakes-third behind consensus highly-ranked soph McKinzie--was on the main and in line with development. Clearly, for him to win the Southwest, he would need to improve again and Mourinho would need to regress. He did and he did. A month earlier, January coast-to-coast Kentucky Derby prep race results were tediously predictable. Remember? McKinzie won Santa Anita's Sham at 20-cents-on-the-dollar; Firenze Fire took Aqueduct's Jerome at 2/5; Instilled Regard swept Fair Grounds' Lecomte as second choice at 5/2 and Mourinho dominated Oaklawn's Smarty Jones at 3-5. Boring stuff, really. February favorite failures were much more interesting. Fun. Exciting. We haven't seen the top 2017 2-year-olds in the afternoon yet. Chad Brown has champ Good Magic scheduled for a Fountain of Youth start March 3 at Gulfstream, and Mick Ruis has had to maneuver Bolt d'Oro around a training hiccup toward the San Felipe at 'Anita a week later. Baffert headliners McKinzie and Solomini also will be deployed this month, and all eyes will focus on the trainer's most recent ultra-impressive-but-behind-the-8-ball maiden winner Justify, as he attempts to outrace history and the calendar on his way to Churchill Downs. As my horseplayer friend used to say, "Stay tuned. Things are about to get interestinger." Race On!