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So you think the Nationals still compete this year with Realmunto instead of Harper? I agree Realmunto helps in future years.

Think about this too. If Harper stays with the Nationals they will get a 1st round pick type player because Harper will probably rejected qualifying offer.

Ignoring the whole Realmunto to Nationals (because I think that would be a huge pick up) unless the Nationals got a very good prospect for Harper they almost are better just keeping him & giving it a long shot of getting into the playoffs (which I don't think is that long but difficult and a lot has to happen). Because by keeping him you're getting a 1st round pick & you'd have to hope that the scouting is good enough to pick somebody that is likely a future mlb star (being a 1st round pick).

I agree that the Nationals should not be throwing in the towel for 2018.

The reason that the above isn't the reality is that the Phillies have been very lucky in 1 run games (20-10), the Braves have been fairly lucky as well (13-8) while the Nationals have been plagued by crappy luck in those contests (10-18)

So the probabilities suggest a rise in the Nationals fortune while the other two experience declines. The Nationals are still very much in the race.

The reason that the above isn't the reality is that the Phillies have been very lucky in 1 run games (20-10), the Braves have been fairly lucky as well (13-8) while the Nationals have been plagued by crappy luck in those contests (10-18)

So the probabilities suggest a rise in the Nationals fortune while the other two experience declines. The Nationals are still very much in the race.

What is usually a factor (s) when a team is lucky in a 1 run game? Or is it just that. Luck?

What is usually a factor (s) when a team is lucky in a 1 run game? Or is it just that. Luck?

Think about it....has there ever been a team with the ability not only to score or prevent x number of runs in a season, but also the ability to distribute them across games to maximize their chances of winning?

No such ability exists, so of course the outcome of one run games is a matter of luck, how could it be otherwise? There is a temptation to think that it is a matter of character, that teams win or lose one run games because they wanted it the most or didn't want it as much as their opponent did. This springs from the way announcers, and the players themselves talk about "momentum" and "clubhouse unity" and "all pulling together" etc. They want us to think that they succeed not just because of their muscles, but because of their superior desire or drive. Since only one club wins it all each year, are we to assume that none of the other clubs had any character?

The good news is that going forward, the Pythag winning percentage of a club is a more accurate predictor of future success or failure than is the actual winning percentage. We are of course talking probabilities, not absolutes, but we can get a clearer idea of how competitive or non competitive a club actually is by clearing away as much noise as possible in the data. Luck is noise in the data. Cleared away we see that the Nationals are very much in the race.

I does not appear that you understand what those projections represent. They are math calculations based on existing data, using formulas which have been tried and found to be accurate more frequently than other approaches to answering the question. To say that you don't believe them is like saying you do not believe that 3 plus 2 equals 5.

It is a calculation of probabilities, nothing more. Weather forecasting is based on probabilities extracted from a database of previous weather patterns. When they say that there is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow that is based on calculating what followed when the prevailing conditions were the same as they are now. 7 out of 10 times it rained. 3 out of 10 times it did not. To say "you don't believe in the 70% chance" is nonsensical, just like saying you don't believe that a coin flip has 50-50 odds.

Probability - yes I do, but they may as well have called the Nats season over.

Good thing the Nats probably won't take that probability seriously.

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