The 18th Party Congress: A Setback for President Hu?

China's President Hu Jintao claps as he arrives for the opening ceremony of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing March 3, 2011. (Jason Lee/Courtesy Reuters).

Share

Two days after the U.S. presidential election, 2270 delegates will gather in Beijing for the Chinese Communist Party’s 18th Congress. The meeting will not only select a new generation of leaders but will also endorse the Party’s new political agenda. After being hit by a slew of scandals, the Communist Party is doing all it can to make sure all “unstable elements” are nipped in the bud. Security is tight not just in Beijing but also in other parts of China. I heard stories of the police stopping cars in a southern province to search for knives. When one of the drivers dared to ask why, he was simply told “shiba da” (18th Party Congress). The New York Times is still being blocked for publishing the Wen Jiabao story. Searching for information on any of the Chinese leaders (and their wives) from Google Hong Kong (the only functioning Google site on the mainland) would only lead to a result stating, “Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage.” In addition, short messages sent via cell phones in China are being automatically blocked if it contains any names of the Chinese leaders.

To most Chinese who are just scraping by, the power jockeying at the top is just too far away for them to pay much attention. A taxi driver in Beijing (who was also a farmer from a Beijing suburb) told me that he did not care about the Party Congress, but he affirmed that life today was much better than a decade ago. When the conversation touched upon the issue of corruption, he gave a positive spin: “Corruption is bad, but at least we benefit from those corrupt officials. It is better to have corrupt officials doing good things for common people than to have clean officials who get nothing done.”

Compared to the ordinary Chinese, intellectuals, professionals, and government officials care about the Party Congress – they are generally more informed about the Congress. At the banquet table these officials and intellectuals were open in discussing candidates for the new Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC) and patron client ties in China’s officialdom. An updated list of PBSC members is circulating on the eve of the political meeting. To my surprise, many different people talked about the same list. From the list it is clear that President Hu has suffered a huge political setback and former President Jiang Zemin has emerged as a clear winner in the game of power redistribution. Reform minded leaders such as Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang are not included in this list. All of this ultimately might not bode well for the prospect of political reform in China.

Opinions expressed on CFR blogs are solely those of the author or commenter, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions.

The China Party Congress together with US presidential election shows 2 biggest events in the November 2012. Today, China has over 1.2 billions citizens and over 80 millions China Party members.

The most important expectation from each Party Congress is a doctrine for develop social-economic of China in next decades, but they still not to see these points. Instead of split into the highest level of leadership of next China, the rift between the persons originating from social classes whose Hu Jin Tao was a representative and the relatives of former founders of China PRC today whose Xi Jin Ping is a representative.

Sadly to say that, some names of potential leaders had been removed by some external forces or old persons under the China regime. In fact, this point sounds the incapacity of next leadership – person in charge and should meet up the real challenges around the world today.

Over 30 millions ‘men’ grows year-to-year, cannot get marriage owing to shortage of women, their clear and consistent views are always considered China — as a “nest” of the rest world, in the context of China trying to escape from strategic encirclement, south China sea … , the observers believe that in next 10 years, probably will occur a regional conflict, even a war for Chinese enabling to settle not only their internal difficulties but, actualize the “expansionism” de facto – China’s mentalities when they have a lot money….

For its part, it feels China is coming to a determination but the world — especially few powers are proving it, otherwise.

Post a Comment

CFR seeks to foster civil and informed discussion of foreign policy issues. All comments must abide by CFR's guidelines and will be moderated prior to posting.

About This Blog

Asia Unbound examines political, economic, and social developments in Asia and the region’s growing importance in global affairs. Named one of the top fifty blogs following Asian business by Bschool.com.