Just days before Finland’s 19 April general election, the centre-right National Coalition Party (NCP) of Prime Minister Alexander Stubb is in second place in opinion polls and facing a last-ditch struggle to retain power. The liberal Centre Party is ahead in the polls with 25% of the vote, while the NCP is neck-and-neck with the centre-left Social-Democrat Party (SDP) on 14-17% of the vote.

Stubb took charge last June when party colleague Jyrki Katainen gave up the premiership to become the Finnish European commissioner. Stubb (pictured) inherited a four-party coalition government, involving the NCP, the SDP, the liberal Swedish People’s Party (SPP) and the conservative Christian Democrats (CD).

This coalition is seen as one of the least successful governments in Finland’s political history, and support has plummeted amid voters’ concerns over rising unemployment, a severe economic downturn and failure to agree on healthcare and budget reforms. The NCP backs spending cuts and lower personal income taxes, but is at odds with the SDP, the largest coalition partner, which wants less severe cuts.

Besides the economy, foreign affairs and NATO membership are dominating the campaign – Finland’s largest neighbour is Russia. Although none of the political parties support joining NATO, Stubb said earlier this month that he does not rule out Finnish membership in the next four years. A majority of Finns (57%) say they oppose NATO membership.

The polls suggest that 43% of voters are still undecided, and Stubb is far from abandoning hope of re-election. “I believe that Finland will make a comeback, and that my party will make a comeback and hopefully I’ll make a comeback as well,” he said.