Todd Fryhover, president of the Washington Apple Commission, believes the higher than anticipated yield is due to new planting technologies leading to greater per-acre yields.

“I think we as an industry don’t really have a way to anticipate the volume on these new blocks,” he said.

Fryhover believes that almost all Washington growers will wrap up harvest within two weeks.

The modern apple orchard has narrower rows to accommodate shorter, denser orchards. In the past, there might be 300 to 400 apple trees per acre. Now, with changes in technology and horticulture, farmers can get 1,500 to 2,000 trees per acre, Fryhover said.

As farmers plant these new, more efficient rows, there is an adjustment period. The first two years after the trees are planted, they won’t produce any fruit for harvest. By year three, they will produce some. But between years three and four, the trees’ production can jump significantly.

“It could easily double between year three and year four,” Fryhover said.

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That means there will be fewer apples competing for export customers. And, China, the world’s largest apple grower, is still unable to export to India, one of Washington’s top customers.

“India in the last five years has really come on with some serious volume,” Fryhover said.

And finally, a cool spring meant Washington’s apples didn’t grow as large as in years past. That’s a good thing, Fryhover said, because international customers tend to like smaller apples.

And while President Donald Trump’s administration continues to debate the North American Free Trade Agreement, Fryhover said any changes that do happen likely won’t affect the 2017 export crop.

“If there are changes, and quite honestly we hope that there are not, it probably will be the 2018 crop,” he said.