This group studies climate variations and related oceanic phenomena
in the Asia-Pacific sector including the Indian, polar and subpolar
Oceans. The goal is to contribute toward establishing advanced prediction
schemes. Numerical simulations using ocean and atmosphere models
of various degrees of freedom as well as data analyses are particularly
stressed in order to understand basic processes generating those
climate variations.

(2) Research Subjects and Methods

a. Study on predictability and processes of short-term climate variations
including seasonal changes.

Encouraged are process studies on various annual and interannual
oceanic and atmospheric phenomena such as ENSO, quasi-biennial oscillation
in the troposphere, monsoonal variations, Aleutian Low and storm
track variations, bimodality of the Kuroshio path, the Indonesian
Throughflow and the Yoshida-Wyrtki Jet in the Pacific and Indian
Ocean. Interrelations among those oceanic and atmospheric phenomena
should be also understood in order to contribute to increasing skills
of prediction. Analyses of reanalysis data, long-term in-situ data,
remote sensing data and even proxy paleoclimate data will be encouraged
to understand physical processes, together with simulations using
models of various degrees of freedom from atmospheric and/or oceanic
GCMs to conceptual GFD models.

b. Study on predictability and processes of decadal and interdecadal
climate variations.

Decadal and interdecadal climate variations have been detected in
various regions of the world in recent years but our level of understanding
as well as predictability skills are still far behind that for interannual
variations. This is particularly the case for the Asia-Pacific sector
in which counted are the well-known 1976 regime shift in the northern
North Pacific, intensification of the Antarctic Circumpolar Waves
and meridional circulation changes in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
In addition to those phenomena, relations among processes with different
space and time scales need to be addressed. For example, a possible
relation among oceanic subduction processes, storm track variations
and modulation of intraseasonal variations will be classified into
the latter.

Analyses of ocean and atmosphere reanalysis data, long-term in-situ
data, remote sensing data and proxy paleoclimate data will be encouraged
to understand physical processes, together with simulations using
models of various degrees of freedom from atmospheric and/or oceanic
GCMs to conceptual GFD models.

(3) Interaction with Other Research Programs

The present research subjects will contribute to the World Climate
Research Program, particularly to CLIVAR/GOALS and CLIVAR/DecCen.
They will also partially contribute to IGBP/PAGES. Implications
for designing Asia-Pacific regional components of climate observing
systems will contribute to GCOS and GOOS. The present research group
will strengthen cooperation with colleagues in Asia, Europe and
Pan-Pacific countries as well as domestic scientists interested
in the above subjects.