Hurricane Richard bears down on Belize

Data from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft confirms that Richard has intensified to hurricane strength, as it bears down on the coast of Belize. At 7:30am CST, the aircraft measured surface winds of 85 mph. Winds at their 5,000 foot flight level were 97 mph, qualifying Richard as the 10th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This year is now tied for sixth place for most hurricanes in an Atlantic hurricane season. This year's 17 named storms also ranks 6th most in history. Atlantic hurricane season records go back to 1851. Richard's center passed just north of the Honduras' Bay Islands this morning, bringing winds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, to the Roatan Airport. Winds were clocked at 49 mph, gusting to 69 mph, at Calabash Bight on Roatan Island.

The latest 8am CST eye report from the Hurricane Hunters noted that Richard had formed a nearly complete eyewall, with a gap in the southwest side. Radar images from the Belize radar also showed this gap, but the gap closed at 9am CST, and Richard now has a complete eyewall, which will promote more rapid intensification. Recent satellite imagery shows a symmetrical, well-organized hurricane with respectable low level spiral banding, and upper level outflow improving in all quadrants. Richard has now walled itself off from the dry air to the storm's west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.

Figure 1. The eye of Richard is very prominent in this radar image from the Belize radar taken at 9:15am CST 10/24/10. Image credit: Belize Meteorological Service.

Forecast for RichardThe latest set of 12am CST (6Z) model runs are in excellent agreement with Richard's track, taking the enter of the storm inland over Belize between 4pm - 9pm CST tonight. The latest radar animations from the Belize radar indicate that Belize City will experience a portion of the eyewall of Richard, and residents of Belize City can expect a 2 - 4 hour period of hurricane force winds to begin between 4pm - 6pm CST this evening. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph should arrive at the coast between 2pm - 4pm CST this afternoon. A good way to estimate these arrival times is using the wundermap with the "hurricane" layer turned on and the "wind radius" and "forecast" boxes checked. Richard is in a very favorable environment for intensification, with low wind shear between 5 - 10 knots, and warm water temperatures of 29 - 29.5°C. Given these conditions, and the fact that the eyewall is is now fully formed, Richard will probably undergo a period of rapid intensification that could take it to Category 2 strength with 100 mph winds at landfall this evening. Once inland, Richard's small size and relatively slow forward speed of 5 - 10 mph on Monday will lead to substantial weakening as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm will probably be a tropical depression when it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday--if it survives the crossing. If Richard does survive the crossing, high wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday should keep the storm from intensifying. Richard should dissipate by Wednesday, before affecting any other land areas.

Invest 90LA tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered 600 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is encountering a very high 40 - 60 knots of wind shear. The shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, Monday through Wednesday. This may give 90L the opportunity to develop, and the NOGAPS model is calling for 90L to develop into a tropical depression by mid-week. NHC is giving 90L a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday.

This was the strongest storm of all the storms in the USA at the time...Probably the one I got with my camera. This storm had a hail size of 3.5 at the time I believe, and look at the VIL...Bottom right corner...where it says max...

Copy&paste 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w, 17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, 17.6n89.3w-17.6n89.6w, 17.6n89.6w-17.7n89.9w, ver, pnd, cun into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Essentially TS.Richard has spent the last 6hours ripping itself apart on northern Guatemala's highlands.While the highest and the worst of the rugged terrain is now behind Richard, there's still enough ahead that it is to be expected that the TropicalStorm will be downgraded to to a TropicalDepression by the next NHC.Advisory.

The Caribbean is for the most part cooler than it was two weeks ago, but it's still more than warm enough for more fun stuff. As they say, "cooler than it was" isn't the same as "cool". And with record to near-record highs expected over much of the area the next week or so, don't look for things to be much cooler come the first part of November. Here's a two-week comparison:

Looks like we are in a calm period for a while.Not much out there that has the possibility of development. High pressure firmly in control of the atlantic basin with a little wave at 45W 15N and another at 25W 10N both with no circulation and dry air and the shear is high everywhere..

The trades are blowing and water temperatures dropping. You can feel the warmth and moisture being pulled off the ocean by the wind as you get alternating dry cool air mixed with the tropical air...

All interests in the central and eastern Caribbean will need to pay close attention to the possibility of tropical cyclone development this weekend or more likely early next week. The overall pattern in the Caribbean next week favors lowering barometric pressures and upward motion and also all of the global model guidance agrees on the possibility of tropical cyclone development in either the central or eastern Caribbean as we get into early next week.

Thankswhats interesting to me is that the gfs has a low passing just off the Venezuelan coast a few runs now.

Quoting surfmom:Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Good day to all - PraysUp for rain here in SWFL

already west nile in s florida if it does rain not sure what would happen

Quick peek b/4 heading out east to the BARN -- 30% chance of rain..... that ain't gonna cut it -- we need 100% -- backyard is looking like a dustbowl... and we need to seed the horse pastures out east....

Seems Belize is down (power) from Ricky-boy as he drenched 4 Latin American countries - let's hope no mudslides

Quoting winter123:Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.

Alex, Hermine, Bonnie, TD5, TD2, and Earl all impacted the US.

And for regeneration, shear is way too high for it to even strengthen. That's why the NHC weakens it slowly and dissipates it at 96 hours out.

Just dropped in to say... Richard looks amazing considering how far inland it is, and that it's going over mountains! I have no doubts it's going to regenerate into a hurricane, maybe even pull an Alex and hit cat 3 before it more than likely goes into mexico. Amazing, no landfalls on the US this season. Mexico and bermuda and the islands got hit hard though.

Copy&paste 16.4n85.1w, 16.5n85.5w, 16.8n86.4w, 16.9n86.9w, 17.1n87.5w-17.2n88.0w, 17.2n88.0w-17.2n88.2w, 17.2n88.2w-17.3n88.6w, 17.3n88.6w-17.6n89.3w, cun, 17.6n89.3w-cme into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distances travelled over the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions: H.Richard will be taxiing across Guatamala then Mexico for a 4:35pmGMT takeoff tomorrow from Ciudad del Carmen International Airport for its flight over the Bay of Campeche^ The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection

I am still traveling, would you believe! I would have sent you others, but didn't know where you were. Still write to the others when I am away. Had some nice ones from Greenland I wanted to send. You would have enjoyed them. Large ones. Keep in touch now and then. A lot of people still ask for you. You were part of the old crowd. Some laughs back then, eh? Now, 50% of the blog is under water.

well i guess we'll have to get you my new address soon, and take care man! I will definitely drop by a lot more often!

Quoting JLPR2:

Got 3 exams this week and I haven't touched a single book yet, I'll be eating them later in the week. XD