Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Johnny Damon comes up short of 3,000 Hit Club...and Hall of Fame

By DAN TRAMMEL
@HighwaytoHall

In 2011, Johnny Damon batted .261
and collected 152 hits for the Tampa Bay Rays, leaving him only 277 hits shy of
the 3,000 hit plateau.Turning 38 years
old shortly after the season ended, Damon appeared to have a very good chance
of collecting his 3,000th hit before his 40th birthday.
Unfortunately, after being released by the Cleveland Indians last week, not
only will he not reach 3,000 hits in the next two seasons, he likely will not
reach that milestone at all. With that go his chances for the Hall of Fame.

Other than those players banned
from baseball (see Pete Rose) and those players accused of steroid use (see
Rafael Palmeiro), every member of the 3,000 Hit Club is in the Hall of
Fame.Until the voters demonstrate a
reluctance to elect players who reach certain magic numbers, there is little reason
to doubt Damon would join the others in Cooperstown
if he could secure the remaining 231 hits.However, since it is now doubtful Damon will collect those hits, let’s
evaluate his chances for election.

A 2-time All-Star with 2 World
Series rings, Damon’s statistics and his career ranking on the all-time lists
are as follows:

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

Total

1668

2769

522

109

235

1139

408

1003

.284

.352

.433

4214

Rank

31st

51st

41st

126th

235th

178th

65th

113th

N/A

N/A

N/A

66th

Of those players eligible (excluding
Rose and Palmeiro), only Harold Baines has more hits than Damon and is not in
the Hall of Fame. Again excluding Rose and Palmeiro, only Dave Parker and Al
Oliver have more doubles than Damon and are not enshrined in Cooperstown.Despite some surprisingly good numbers, and a
career WAR (52.1) that is well above many Hall of Famers, including Lou Brock
(42.8), Damon has no chance for induction. He will receive enough votes to stay
on the ballot a few years, maybe collecting as many as 15% of the vote. But he
will never be considered a candidate with a legitimate chance for induction.

Why is
that? First, Damon did not have a period of excellence in which he was one of
the best players in the American League. He never finished higher than 13th
in MVP voting and his two best seasons were wasted in Kansas City. Damon was incredibly consistent
and remarkably durable, joining Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson, and Pete Rose as
the only players to appear in 140+ games in 16 consecutive seasons. His ability
to play everyday, combined with being a very good baseball player, allowed him
to accumulate impressive career numbers. But the voters like to see a peak
which rates among the top players in the era. Damon does not have that.

Second, Damon lacks the impressive
secondary numbers which rally support from sabermetricians. His OPS+ (on base
percentage plus slugging percentage adjusted to the player’s ballpark) is 104.
Among Hall of Fame outfielders, only Lloyd Waner (99) and Tommy McCarthy (102)
have lower totals, and they are widely regarded as the two least deserving
outfielders in the Hall. Without support from the sabermetric crowd similar to
that received by Bert Blyleven, Damon’s name will not generate enough buzz to
merit remaining on the ballot for more than a few years.

Nonetheless, Damon was a very good
baseball player. His unique blend of speed and power make him an answer to many
trivia questions, and place him in a category of underrated players I like to
call the Vada Pinson All-Stars, named after the former Cincinnati Reds star who
accumulated stunningly similar numbers to Damon.

Name

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

Pinson

1366

2757

485

127

256

1170

305

574

.286

.327

.442

4264

Damon

1668

2769

522

109

235

1139

408

1003

.284

.352

.433

4214

Pinson spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot, peaking at
15.7%. During his prime, he was overshadowed in the National League by Hank
Aaron, Willie Mays, and Roberto Clemente. Although he was one of the youngest
players to collect 1,000 hits, he was unable to maintain his pace, and retired
at the age of 37, just 243 hits shy of 3,000. However, as stated earlier,
Pinson, along with Damon, often appears in trivia questions involving
speed/power combination. For example, Damon and Pinson are two of sixteen
players in Major League Baseball history to collect 2,350 hits, 235 home runs,
and 235 stolen bases. This list consists of Hall of Famers, soon-to-be Hall of
Famers (unless voters withhold their votes due to steroid use), and 4 Vada
Pinson All-Stars. (The answer is below).

It is
difficult to draw a line between Pinson and Damon. It is even more difficult to
claim Damon was better. Pinson had a higher peak, finishing 3rd in
the NL MVP voting in 1961. Unfortunately, Pinson was essentially finished as an
everyday player by the age of 29. His WAR (50.2) slightly trails that of Damon
(52.1). It would be interesting to see how the voters would evaluate their
careers if they could have held on to the age of 40. With a few more seasons
for each, 3,000 hits becomes a high probability. Then their careers fall in
line with that of Lou Brock:

Name

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

OPS+

Brock

1610

3023

488

141

149

900

938

761

.293

.343

.410

4238

109

Damon

1668

2769

522

109

235

1139

408

1003

.284

.352

.433

4214

104

Pinson

1366

2757

485

127

256

1170

305

574

.286

.327

.442

4264

111

In addition
to membership in the 3,000 Hit Club, Brock also retired as the all-time stolen
base leader. Voters tend to reward players who retire as the “All-Time Leader
in…” a non-save category. Simply glancing at their career numbers, though,
Brock’s career does not stand out from Pinson and Damon, which begs the
question, with 3,000 hits, would the voters have kept out the latter two?

Returning
to our previous trivia question, the sixteen players with at least 2,350 hits,
235 home runs, and 235 stolen bases are as follows:

Hank Aaron

Derek Jeter

Bobby Abreu

Willie Mays

Craig Biggio

Joe Morgan

Barry Bonds

Vada Pinson

Johnny Damon

Alex Rodriguez

Andre Dawson

Ryne Sandberg

Steve Finley

Gary Sheffield

Rickey Henderson

Robin Yount

Aaron, Dawson,
Henderson,
Mays, Morgan, Sandberg, and Yount are all Hall of Famers. Jeter and Biggio will
join them. Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sheffield all
merit induction but it has yet to be determined how voters will treat the
steroid era. That leaves 4 Vada Pinson All-Stars: Damon, Pinson, Abreu, and
Finley.

Abreu
stands out from the other three due to his much higher peak. Unfortunately, his
best seasons were wasted in Philadelphia
for bad Phillies teams and he never finished higher than 12th in MVP
voting and was only named to 2 All-Star teams. A look at the career numbers of
Abreu and Finley alongside Damon and Pinson:

Name

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

OPS+

WAR

Abreu

1439

2434

565

59

286

1347

398

1451

.292

.396

.477

3975

129

57

Finley

1443

2548

449

124

304

1167

300

844

.271

.332

.442

4157

104

40.4

Damon

1668

2769

522

109

235

1139

408

1003

.284

.352

.433

4214

104

52.1

Pinson

1366

2757

485

127

256

1170

305

574

.286

.327

.442

4264

111

50.2

Note: Abreu’s statistics are
through August 11, 2012.

Although Abreu is still active, he is
clearly on the downside of his career. He will never approach the hit total of
Damon and Pinson, but his high walk count gives him a significant edge in on
base percentage. Finley hit for a lower average but, surprisingly, hit more
home runs, making him 1 of 8 players in the 300 homer/300 stolen base club. All
four of the listed players were good players for a number of years and put up
very respectable numbers. They each were underappreciated during their careers
but their Hall candidacies will all suffer the same fate.

Johnny
Damon was a very good baseball player for a number of years. His terrific blend
of speed and power place him in exclusive company in several categories. But he
was never among the top players in the American League and his low peak,
combined with his inability to hang around to collect 3,000 hits, makes his
candidacy an easy call to make. Like Vada Pinson before him, Damon will spend
several years on the Hall of Fame ballot but ultimately will never be elected.