The Indians are all about cost certainty – I don’t see any major arbitration cases coming up aside from Shoppach. If they retain Carroll, they’ll have about $64MM committed. The Indians entered this season with a $79MM payroll, so they could have $15MM to spend this winter.

The Indians were right in the middle of the AL with a .339 OBP and .424 SLG. In the second half, though, the Tribe had one of the AL’s best offenses. Overall the Indians had below-average offensive performances at first base, second base, third base, left field, right field, and designated hitter.

Choo’s encouraging performance indicates he might be able to hold down an outfield corner. Matt LaPorta could take the other. The Indians have to hope Hafner can become a useful hitter again, if not the offensive force of 2004-06. The team seems likely to seek upgrades in the infield. All four positions are fair game, as Peralta could be moved to third due to questionable defense at short. Cabrera could move to short.

The rotation is shaky after Lee, as Carmona had a terrible year and Westbrook will be out until midyear. Carmona dealt with a strained hip for much of ’08; the Indians need him to regain his control next year. Reyes and Lewis showed promise in small samples, but a shrewd veteran addition a la Kevin Millwood in ’05 would stabilize the rotation. Freddy Garcia? Bartolo Colon? Randy Johnson, maybe?

The Indians are focused on importing a closer, though they may stick with Lewis if nothing works out. Brian Fuentes could make sense, and the trade market might offer B.J. Ryan, Huston Street, and Kevin Gregg.

It will be a challenging offseason for Mark Shapiro, as the Indians have many needs. A payroll increase could go a long way, though attendance doesn’t seem to support one.