I have defended Salty before but I think many posters are too high on Salty.

Rankings 2013 catchers >90 PA Fangraphs

13th, (with a .405 BABIP)

37th fielding

35th baserunner

First, defensive metrics for catchers are largely a joke. Second, let's look at few other numbers...

Looking at the top 30 catchers by PAs (180+):

7th OPS .808 (better than 26 team catcher OPS)

9th OBP .344 (usually his weakness/better than 24 team catcher OBP)

8th SLG .464 (doing it without as many HRs/better than 27 team catcher SLG)

9th BA .272 (better than 23 team catcher BA)

9th WAR 1.7 (Batting component 8th, running 19th, fielding 22nd)

9th wRC+ 115 (better than 23 team numbers)

15th in PAs (279): 11th in HRs (8), 10th RBI (37), GDP 27th (2)

Maybe part of the reason Salty has such a high BAbip, is because he is first among all MLB catchers in LD%:

1) Salty 30.1%

2) Mauer 27.8

3) McCann 26.6

4) Jaso 25.5

I wont try and defend his CS%. It has been horrible and getting worse over time.

However, the differential in actual SBs over a year between Salty and the league average is only about 10-15. He has been rated as one of the best pitch framers in MLB, he has been pretty good at PB/WP since Wake left the team, and his CERA numbers have improved with most pitchers on this staff.

Everyone can agree that Salty has improved dramatically, and is one of the top offensive catchers in the game now.

I personally see catching as a predominantly defensive position. Blocking and throwing are the main skills I look at. When it comes to game "calling", a lot of that happens before the game ever starts. Pitchers ultimately make the final call because they're holding the ball.

I've heard people talk about 8-13m per year for multiple years. That's not chump change.

We're supposedly carrying a lot of talent at this position under control for years, and cheaply.

I wish we would focus on the opportunity cost of that 8-13m. What else could we buy with it? If you take that money, plus what you might pay to extend Napoli, you now have Cliff Lee covered (or some other elite pitcher) .

Wait for free agency and some nice arms will become available. Or splurge on some premium RH bat. Or some of both!

No decision happens in a vacuum. What else could you do with the money? Think.

Everyone can agree that Salty has improved dramatically, and is one of the top offensive catchers in the game now.

I personally see catching as a predominantly defensive position. Blocking and throwing are the main skills I look at. When it comes to game "calling", a lot of that happens before the game ever starts. Pitchers ultimately make the final call because they're holding the ball.

I've heard people talk about 8-13m per year for multiple years. That's not chump change.

We're supposedly carrying a lot of talent at this position under control for years, and cheaply.

I wish we would focus on the opportunity cost of that 8-13m. What else could we buy with it? If you take that money, plus what you might pay to extend Napoli, you now have Cliff Lee covered (or some other elite pitcher) .

Wait for free agency and some nice arms will become available. Or splurge on some premium RH bat. Or some of both!

No decision happens in a vacuum. What else could you do with the money? Think.

I would resign Salty before Naps, who would probably cost more. Nobody has mentioned paying salty a salary of 13M per. Thats only if they offer him a QO. the most Ive seen mentioned is 7-10M per and 3-4 years. You can usually find a good 1b. Not so much a catcher. They arent getting Cliff Lee, so thats probably not a realistic option. He didnt want to come here anyway and BC is not giving up the prospects it will take to get him. Lavarnway has proved nothing and every other catcher is at least 2 years away.

Our biggest off season need will be at the catchers position. Who know whats gonna happen with Ross. Lavarnway is a huge ? and most scouts and people within the organization look at him as a BU catcher/1b/DH, Vasquez and Swihart are at least 2 yrs away. Big need at this position...

we have all 5 starters lined up for next year as well as a few prospects that will be knocking on the door. Although you cant have enough pitching, its not a glaring need.

We have a couople internal options at 1b, but could easily sign a 1yr stop gap for a decent price.

all set at 2b/SS

3b, WMB, Bogey and Cecchini right behind them. Also have good BU options with Snyder and Holt.

JBJ, Nava, Carp, Gomes, Mabye Brentz next year. I could see them acquiring some help for the OF too.

Everyone can agree that Salty has improved dramatically, and is one of the top offensive catchers in the game now.

I personally see catching as a predominantly defensive position. Blocking and throwing are the main skills I look at. When it comes to game "calling", a lot of that happens before the game ever starts. Pitchers ultimately make the final call because they're holding the ball.

The pre-game pitching plan often requires adjustments as the game moves on. Adjustments based on how the pitcher is throwing certain pitches, adjustments in the pitch sequences to keep the hitters off-balance etc.

Yes the pitcher makes the final call, but if they have confidence in the catcher's pitch selections it can free them up to just execute the pitches.

Everyone can agree that Salty has improved dramatically, and is one of the top offensive catchers in the game now.

I personally see catching as a predominantly defensive position. Blocking and throwing are the main skills I look at. When it comes to game "calling", a lot of that happens before the game ever starts. Pitchers ultimately make the final call because they're holding the ball.

I've heard people talk about 8-13m per year for multiple years. That's not chump change.

We're supposedly carrying a lot of talent at this position under control for years, and cheaply.

I wish we would focus on the opportunity cost of that 8-13m. What else could we buy with it? If you take that money, plus what you might pay to extend Napoli, you now have Cliff Lee covered (or some other elite pitcher) .

Wait for free agency and some nice arms will become available. Or splurge on some premium RH bat. Or some of both!

No decision happens in a vacuum. What else could you do with the money? Think.

By my calculations, including arb raises and lester's $13M option, we will have about $44M to spend and stay under the luxury tax limit. That is enough to pay Salty and still get a big bat and/or good pitching. Here are the open splots next year and some possible in-house options (ones listed last may not be ML ready by 2014):

Every time I've mentioned Middlebrooks or Swihart people have yelled at me that Vasquez is the 2nd coming. How can we know what he can / can't do without some playing time?

When is is Rule 5 / FA eligible? He played 2008 in the Gulf Coast league, so I'm at a bit of a loss figuring some of this out. No help from Cots or Baseball Reference.

A player is first subject to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft in the fourth or fifth draft following the date of that player's original minor league contract. Whether that player will be eligible in the fourth or fifth year depends on that player's age at the time of his original contract. Players on the 40-man roster are not eligible for the Rule 5 draft, nor are minor league free agents. For information regarding players selected by and from Boston in the draft, see the SoxProspects Rule 5 Draft History Page.

Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

IMHO, your analysis is lightweight and your bias is obvious and has been for a long time...

I am clearly biased against Salty continuing his current .405 BAPIP, which by the way is extremely high for him historically or any other player in the last 50 years. The highest full season BAPIP in the last 50 years or so beyond him was Ichiro at .399. Do you really think that is going to continue? Look at the data.

Salty has a current K percentage of 34%. 34% of his at bats he is striking out and over 40 % of the time he is getting a hit. How likely is that? This guy is going to regress bigtime. Salty's BAPIP historically has been .321. If he had NORMAL LUCK LEVELS FOR HIM HISTORICALLY, he would be hitting .190 right now.

The data doesn't support your argument. He stinks defensively also with a negative 6 DRS.

I read the article. Where is the insight there? The guy is not an intellectual giant and he never should be discussing such details in public. It can only hurt his team. Someone should tell him to shut up. We are trying to actually win games.

Salty has been great considering what was traded to get him. Starting him him at 26 - 28 yo has been the right move. Signing him to a four year contract is where I jump off board.

He has hit well at home in 2013, but it is not likely to continue.

BABIP .405 career .321

LD% '13 30.1% career 22.5%

His OBP is .036 higher than his career average, which is unlikely to continue (.405 BABiP)

In 2011- 2012 he had even H / A splits.

2013: H .903 A .721

Catching defensive metrics may not matter to some, but Salty fairs poorly.

Offer him a QO and one 29 yo prime year at $13M is ok, but I don't go four years. Not with the others in the wings.

Tom, I hear you. I wouldn't even offer him a qualifying offer though. He might actually take it. Chances are he is right back to hitting .230 with an OBP of under .300 and bad defense next year. We have been lucky to get what we have out of him. The Sox know this. They have tried to move him for several years now. As I mentioned earlier we may still bring him back because we need a catcher but he isn't worth $14 mil IMO.

Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

IMHO, your analysis is lightweight and your bias is obvious and has been for a long time...

I am clearly biased against Salty continuing his current .405 BAPIP, which by the way is extremely high for him historically or any other player in the last 50 years. The highest full season BAPIP in the last 50 years or so beyond him was Ichiro at .399. Do you really think that is going to continue? Look at the data.

Salty has a current K percentage of 34%. 34% of his at bats he is striking out and over 40 % of the time he is getting a hit. How likely is that? This guy is going to regress bigtime. Salty's BAPIP historically has been .321. If he had NORMAL LUCK LEVELS FOR HIM HISTORICALLY, he would be hitting .190 right now.

The data doesn't support your argument. He stinks defensively also with a negative 6 DRS.

I read the article. Where is the insight there? The guy is not an intellectual giant and he never should be discussing such details in public. It can only hurt his team. Someone should tell him to shut up. We are trying to actually win games.

If You think hes saying anything that actually hurts the team, then Wow, you really are clueless...

heres more praise for a good interview and great insight to the cerebral part of catching

Salty has a BAPIP of over 400. He will regress to his normal .230 over time. No way he gets a qualifying offer and a pick for us but we may chose to sign him since we need a catcher and he will not net us a pick. My gut tells me he walks though.

That fangraphs articl was lightweight stuff to me. It's not intellectual genius by any stretch of the imagination. It's workmanlike success from having things seared into his memory the hard way and he should not be talking about it at all. Talking about these things can only hurt. So why is he doing it?

IMHO, your analysis is lightweight and your bias is obvious and has been for a long time...

I am clearly biased against Salty continuing his current .405 BAPIP, which by the way is extremely high for him historically or any other player in the last 50 years. The highest full season BAPIP in the last 50 years or so beyond him was Ichiro at .399. Do you really think that is going to continue? Look at the data.

Salty has a current K percentage of 34%. 34% of his at bats he is striking out and over 40 % of the time he is getting a hit. How likely is that? This guy is going to regress bigtime. Salty's BAPIP historically has been .321. If he had NORMAL LUCK LEVELS FOR HIM HISTORICALLY, he would be hitting .190 right now.

The data doesn't support your argument. He stinks defensively also with a negative 6 DRS.

I read the article. Where is the insight there? The guy is not an intellectual giant and he never should be discussing such details in public. It can only hurt his team. Someone should tell him to shut up. We are trying to actually win games.

You can't post against salty using defense as one of the reasons and then suggest using lav. Lav could have an okay bat (has not been proven) but frankly he has one of the worst defensive techniques I have ever seen. He doesn't even give the pticher a proper target, instead he stabs at the pitch as its crossing the plate. He might have a strong arm but frankly there are far more important aspects of catching then having a good caught stealing percentage see Jason variteks career if you don't believe it.

Also you complain about his strike out rate without acknowledging his increased walk rate as well, which has helped to drive up his obp. Salty is doing a pretty good job, not being able to recognize that is being willfully blind to what this team is accomplishing.

Salty has been great considering what was traded to get him. Starting him him at 26 - 28 yo has been the right move. Signing him to a four year contract is where I jump off board.

He has hit well at home in 2013, but it is not likely to continue.

BABIP .405 career .321

LD% '13 30.1% career 22.5%

His OBP is .036 higher than his career average, which is unlikely to continue (.405 BABiP)

In 2011- 2012 he had even H / A splits.

2013: H .903 A .721

Catching defensive metrics may not matter to some, but Salty fairs poorly.

Offer him a QO and one 29 yo prime year at $13M is ok, but I don't go four years. Not with the others in the wings.

If he is worth $13M/1, I don't see how signing a relatively young player, who should not be burnt out by catching so few innings in his MLB years, to $38 to 42M/4 is going to be a problem if one of our kids proves he's better. Simply trade Salty or play him at 1B/DH or platoon.

The fact that Salty hits RHPs so well, is a huge plus when it comes to finding a B/U catcher that hits LHPs well.

I do not expect Salty's BAbip to continue over .400, but one thing is very likely to continue:

BB% since joining the Sox:

2011 6.2%

2012 8.5%

2013 10.0%

This is a big driving force of his increased OBP (accounting for about 40 points in his OBP rise from 2011.)

I'm not saying he will sustain his 30% LD% either, but it is a point that needs to be made: his high BAbip is not from bloop hits and weak grounders finding a whole for the most part. He is hitting the ball very hard, but noit for HRs 9at the same rate as 2012 anyways). This is a good sign that he may have made some adjustments that may carry into his next 3-4 years (all in his prime). Players do improve after age 27-28 quite often, and Salty's offensive trends have almost all been positive, except for his K rate: 30.8> 31.0> 34.1%. However, I have never cared to much for K rates as long as the non-K PAs are productive.

Tom, I hear you. I wouldn't even offer him a qualifying offer though. He might actually take it. Chances are he is right back to hitting .230 with an OBP of under .300 and bad defense next year. We have been lucky to get what we have out of him. The Sox know this. They have tried to move him for several years now. As I mentioned earlier we may still bring him back because we need a catcher but he isn't worth $14 mil IMO.

There is scertainly a chance he hits .230 with a .290 OBP in 2014, but it should not be expected. He is just now entering his prime, and one should expect further improvement, not regression at his age and experience level.

Remember, VTek dipped to .248 at age 28, then had several good years afterwards. Most players have their best seasons between 28-31.

I really think you are giving Salty a bad rap on his defense. He has been steadily improving, except for CS%- a stat that is vastly over-rated by many. Does the defensive metrics you use count pitch framing and staff handling? Salty is one of the best at framing pitches, and one study had him saving many runs in just this one area. His handling of the staff has also vastly improved over 2011 and April of 2012. There's no reason to think with greater familiarity, things will get worse in that area in 2014. His WP and PB rate has risen some this year over 2012, and that is concerning, but I really think defensive metrics do not fairly capture the whole skillset of catchers. I'm not saying he is a good defensive catcher, but I have seen improvement, and I have seen several pretty bad defensive catchers on other teams.

I do think Vazquez could be better than Salty on defense very quickly at the ML level. The learnign cuve with handling a new staff is the one area in question. He probably better at most other areas already. As for Lava, I think it may take 2-4 years, if ever, to become as good as Salty when looking at every aspect of a catcher behind the plate.

Making a QO of about $14M for 2014 is too high. I'm pretty sure he'd take it. The one year contract is good in some ways, especially as compared to a longer deal if he bombs out in 2014, but I just don't see us going that high. Let's say his market rate is $40M/4, then subtracting the $14M/1 would leave $26M/3 for the remaining 3 years. That's not a bad contract, and if the worst happens, we could probably trade him and pay $5-10M of his remaining deal.

Just a minor point but Salty shouldn't ever ask Uehara to throw 3 straight fastballs up and in, especially to a hitter like Jason Bay. When your heater tops out at 90mph you've got to surprise the batter as much as anything. We were just lucky that Bay ripped the 3rd one foul deep to left or else the game would have been tied up.

Just a minor point but Salty shouldn't ever ask Uehara to throw 3 straight fastballs up and in, especially to a hitter like Jason Bay. When your heater tops out at 90mph you've got to surprise the batter as much as anything. We were just lucky that Bay ripped the 3rd one foul deep to left or else the game would have been tied up.

While I agree with your point, maybe throwing 3 straight of the same pitch is a surprise to a hitter expecting a change in pitches.

Just a minor point but Salty shouldn't ever ask Uehara to throw 3 straight fastballs up and in, especially to a hitter like Jason Bay. When your heater tops out at 90mph you've got to surprise the batter as much as anything. We were just lucky that Bay ripped the 3rd one foul deep to left or else the game would have been tied up.

While I agree with your point, maybe throwing 3 straight of the same pitch is a surprise to a hitter expecting a change in pitches.

Possibly. But I tend to think if it's a pitch you've just seen twice you're probably better prepared to hit it than a pitch you haven't seen yet. I also remember that in Bay's last year with the Sox he struggled quite a bit with breaking balls off the outside part of the plate. Actually, now that I think of it, with the count 0-2 Uehara painted the black on the outside part of the plate but he didn't get the call. My bad for forgetting about that pitch.