Thursday Night Previews: Independence Day Doesn't Really Surge

June 24th, 2016

Independence Day: Resurgence started its box office run with $4 million during Thursday previews. That's not good. That's twice as much as the $2 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned a few weeks ago, but half as much as the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse earned the week before that. It is identical to Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened last summer. If you compare its opening to all three films, taking into account Out of the Shadows' younger target audience and Apocalypse's Fanboy nature, then Resurgence will likely opened with between $50 million and $60 million. Hopefully it is performing better internationally.

The Shallows earned $1.325 million during its previews. This is more than twice what The Witch made ($630,000), but half of what The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist made ($3.2 million). Both figures suggest The Shallows will earned in the mid to high teens over the weekend. Even a $15 million opening weekend would be great news for a film that reportedly cost just $13 million to make.

It looks like Free State of Jones will bomb, as it only managed $365,000 during its previews. This is roughly 40% less than Money Monster made last month and that film only managed $14.79 million during its opening weekend. Additionally, Free State of Jones' reviews have improved, but they are still just 36% positive. I don't think it will top $10 million over the weekend.

One final note: Finding Dory hit $200 million on Thursday, becoming the fastest animated film to reach that milestone.