The successful counterinsurgency and poppy eradication efforts there provided U.S. and Afghan officials with a success story that they believed could also be used as a model for the other 33 Afghan provinces. However, the success in Nangarhar appears to be short lived.

The growth in poppy production also bodes poorly for other U.S. and international development projects that have sought to wean Afghan farmers off a dependence on poppy in lieu of food crops that could help feed famished Afghans. Poppy remains a valuable cash crop, even more so after a 2010 decline in opium production, largely resulting for a disease that attacked poppy crops. According to McClatchy, before 2010, opium sold for approximately US$165 per kilogram. Now it earns farmers as much as US$400 per kilogram.

Drug addiction and opium production are challenges that are likely to shape Afghanistan’s security environment in the years ahead. As U.S. and coalition forces prepare to drawdown in 2014 – with the United States transitioning to a more limited presence through special operations forces – the onus will likely fall largely on the Afghan government to combat the rise of Afghanistan as a narco-state. Bolstering counter-narcotics capabilities before the 2014 transition may help improve the capacity of the Afghan government to address this challenge. However, the Karzai government and other leaders across Afghanistan will also need to demonstrate the political will to tackle this challenge head on.