Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is an incredible talent and has proven that there isn’t a defence he can’t throw on. With the talent he has at the skill positions, it is easy to understand why the Chiefs had the highest scoring offence in the NFL this season.

But the Chiefs have flaws which were on display towards the end of the regular season.

The running game isn’t as dynamic as it once was. But the bigger problem is their defence. Teams have been putting up points on them all season; they’ve just been able to outscore almost everyone.

However, when they faced teams that had good defences and offences capable of controlling the clock, they were in trouble. That is why the Ravens took them to overtime before losing and why the Chargers and Seahawks were able to complete the upset.

Indianapolis has an offence that can keep up with the Chiefs on the scoreboard. Andrew Luck has had an incredible season. His offensive line is having an even better one, and Marlon Mack has provided the Colts with a decent running game.

The Chiefs have played good defence at times, but not against an offence as good as Indianapolis. They will need to be at their best if they are going to win. The Colts defence could be good enough to get a couple of stops, which may be all that they need to score the upset.

Take the Colts to win, straight up and against the spread. As for the over/under—take the over.