Sorry, this got away from me again. I need to read that all a little more closely. But at least some thoughts about the big nasty stuff.

Chane claims a connection with cf, that she wants to protect cf, in the process painting a target on cf. And then is hinting about mega-powers or something. I don't feel "good" about Chane by any stretch of the imagination, but there's so much stuff coming there, I am currently interpreting this as radically different playstyle. I do not intend to vote for Chane today.

Sabrar indicates a near certainty that Chane is town. And CF is caught up in that whole ball of confusion. This gives a fairly high chance of the three being co-aligned, which by our guesses about numbers probably makes town a more likely conclusion.

Snark is backing off because of all this, which is also kind of the townie thing to do, because it wouldn't be that hard to keep a witchhunt going at this point.

This accounts for half the players as likely town (including myself). So I will try to prioritize the other 5 when I reread.

Carlington, sorry you had a bad day. Madge isn't on your lists, but maybe this was intentional (you labeled her section "Exception").

This comment by Sabrar is pinging me.

Sabrar wrote:

Madge wrote:I don't think people are serious when they say 99.5% in contexts like this - or maybe Sabrar is?

I've used hyperbole before in similar circumstances but this time it's serious. It would be around 85% if not for the fact that she claimed to be able to prove herself D2. In my opinion scum won't ever make such statements on D1 unless threatened by an imminent lynch as it's basically just giving up at that point. There is a distinct possibility of Chane being a cult-leader and willing to be lynched D2 after she converted someone, however it still seems unlikely that she would behave this way.

So your 99.5% town read on Chane is because she said something that you can’t imagine anyone saying as scum, so therefore she must be town? Really? I’m a little suspicious of why you are so certain of her alignment, because I don’t think “she’s said something that in my opinion scum would never say” is a good enough reason for a 99.5% certainty. If you’re certain she’s town, it could be because you know she’s not scum.

@bessie: if I'm scum and Chane's not she would have been the easiest mislynch of my life and the reasonable thing for me to do would have been to sit back and let Snark lead the train. I find it interesting that you stopped your thought-process at the ping and didn't think of its ramifications.Chane basically claimed Innocent Child which means we 100% lynch her if she cannot prove herself D2. Scum!Chane could have done almost anything else and still have a better shot at avoiding the lynch but she continues to be stubborn and act in an irritating way. She's not new to the game so yes, I can't imagine a scenario where scum would behave like that.

I think at this point in time I'd be ok with a Diemo/Madge lynch. I'm not ready to vote though, but discussion has basically ground to a halt, so it might be better to just end the day sooner rather than later.

bessie wrote:Carlington, sorry you had a bad day. Madge isn't on your lists, but maybe this was intentional (you labeled her section "Exception").

Indeed it was. I'm holding off there because I've already made my feelings on Diemo known, but we stand to gain a bunch of information from Madge's play, because we have two metas to compare against.I understand Madge had real life goings-on today so posts were not forthcoming, but deadline is 6am Saturday in my timezone, so I won't be posting for about the last six or seven hours of the day. If Madge hasn't provided more good content by then, I'll have to fall back to the scum feelings I got from Diemo and vote her.

Fairly off-topic @Madge:

Spoiler:

I keep just assuming you'll be on at the same times as me. You're 3 hours back, right? What time of day would you typically be on forums? Because if it's after 9pm or so your time then being a close match in timezones actually puts us nearly 24 hours out of sync, in effect.

Carlington wrote:Sadly, because of all this carrying on around Chane, I don't have enough to be reading anyone as scummy right now. My closest is Madgemo, but that's based on my experience with Diemo so I feel like it's a false read thus subject to change when I see how Madge plays it.

What I meant here was that I read Diemo as fairly scummy, all things considered - but everything he was doing matches my experience in games with him.

Deadline will fall when I’m at work, so my last opportunity to (make a brief) post will be about 24 hours from now. If anyone wants me to respond to anything please try to post within the next 12 hours.

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: if I'm scum and Chane's not she would have been the easiest mislynch of my life and the reasonable thing for me to do would have been to sit back and let Snark lead the train. I find it interesting that you stopped your thought-process at the ping and didn't think of its ramifications.Chane basically claimed Innocent Child which means we 100% lynch her if she cannot prove herself D2. Scum!Chane could have done almost anything else and still have a better shot at avoiding the lynch but she continues to be stubborn and act in an irritating way. She's not new to the game so yes, I can't imagine a scenario where scum would behave like that.

Sabrar, I have my doubts that Chane would have been a super easy mislynch, although that doubt is because of meta reasons (general player reluctance to lynch a newbie on D1) and not based on her content (frankly, quite scummy). No one but Snark voted for her. But Chane is not going to be lynched today so it wouldn’t serve any purpose to discuss the Doctor-Innocent Child-Knower-of-crucialityfactor’s-Allignment “claims” any further. We will know tomorrow because

bessie wrote: The only proof is in bold from the mod, anything else is just a claim.

I would consider moving my vote on emlightened because I have more of an indie read on her than a mafia read. Her role fishing makes me suspect she is non-town, but I feel her other content has been scumhunting. So Madge, how about some reads? For my part, I would like to see more than “I can’t tell bessie’s town meta from her scum meta so perhaps maybe just in case we should lynch her just to be sure.”

Carlington wrote:Sadly, because of all this carrying on around Chane, I don't have enough to be reading anyone as scummy right now. My closest is Madgemo, but that's based on my experience with Diemo so I feel like it's a false read thus subject to change when I see how Madge plays it.

What I meant here was that I read Diemo as fairly scummy, all things considered - but everything he was doing matches my experience in games with him.

Please explain the contradiction.

No contradiction, just I'm not so great at words sometimes. Diemo has been pinging me, but after initially reading, I went back and tried to account for what I know of the players in the game. Diemo's pingy play matches up with how he plays D1, so I left it in favour of focusing on Chane et. al. Then, after Madge replaced in, I left it to see how Madge plays (for those commenting on Madge's absence from my read lists, this is also why). All that said, though, if I don't get any reason not to then I'll vote Madge - Diemo's meta can't be enough to avoid a vote in the absence of a better candidate.

The following players haven't posted for 2 days or more, so I would like to prod them as deadline is in less than half a day:

@Madge: currently it looks like you'll be lynched today. Anything to say for yourself? Maybe giving us your reads in case you turn out to be Town?@Snark: I asked you to provide more details for your reads. Would you care to do that? Any new reads?@kalira: you had Diemo as 'Neutral leaning scum pending Madge’s content.' I know Madge had only posted once since then but do you see anything interesting there? Do you have any other new reads?@emlightened: if I'm not mistaken your last post was almost 4 days ago. Surely you have some new ideas since then...

Unfortunately, I really suck at reads. I don't know if I've ever identified scum by anything other than dumb luck. I'm just not good at it. I'd as soon send you all on a wild goose chase in the meantime.

All I can say is I think Chane, mpolo, and Sabrar are the towniest at the moment.

I'm writing a supernatural romance novel, it updates the first weekend of every month. You can find it here.

mpolo wrote:kalira: possible bessie/Chane link, but seems townie, Chane is obstructionist, Diemo gave misleading flavor; Some coaching for Chane of how to shape up[/spoiler]

...

kalira: Starting to tunnel on Chane just as others are moving away; this accounts for almost all posting : Somewhat scummy

mpolo, this is all in one post. What caused the about-face on kalira?

Re: Madge's claim - I did some reading about the character and based on what I saw I can put together a role that makes sense. Given where the opening flavour seems to place us on the timeline, it's not unfathomable for that character to be in game imo - but I'd love to hear from someone with flavour knowledge beyond the WoT Wiki about this.I'm not going to place a vote now - I'm not sure enough of myself or anything at this point. If I wake up and there's still time, I might place one then. Otherwise, see you in the morning, all.

Madge's role could be a safe-claim given to scum but there's a tiny thing wrong with that picture so I'm having second thoughts. Unfortunately she's light on content.Will reread emlightened later, although it would be nice if we knew the result of the mod-prod before day-end.

Madge wrote:Equal parts self preservation and the heuristic that scum likes to be quiet and not draw attention to themselves, so tends to lurk.

Exactly what is your definition of a lurker? Someone that doesn’t post any useful content, like some reads, and instead makes excuses for not posting any content?

Madge wrote:Unfortunately, I really suck at reads. I don't know if I've ever identified scum by anything other than dumb luck. I'm just not good at it. I'd as soon send you all on a wild goose chase in the meantime.

Still at this point I guess active lurking is better than no content at all. I’m willing to let Madge’s claim go for today because I don’t have time to read the flavor and decide if the claim is reasonable, and because it would be a pretty bold move to fake claim on D1 when there have been no reveals (Sabrar pointed out it could be a safe claim which I will consider). OK with my vote on emlightened and she hasn’t given me any reason to move it. I’m on my way to work and I don’t think I will have the opportunity to switch votes if she does post. I will check if I am able.

I'm uncomfortable with lynching emlightened because of her content, however I'm not sure about Madge either and 'Lynch the lurker' is a policy I would like to see enforced heavily ever since D2 of Secret Santa.

Sorry for the inactivity. I was unable to post on Tuesday, and just ended up getting sidetracked on Wednesday and Thursday from doing a reads list. (No, I don't know why I didn't comment on other posts. I'll try to change that tomorrow, if I survive.)

I'm going to say that I felt a bit uncomfortable that we had more votes come on DieMadge, as my vote for them at the time was mainly based on them being the scummiest player in the game at the time, when nobody was particularly scummy. Oh well.

I guess I should roleclaim, considering Madge has. I am Elyas Machera, a Tracker and Survivor. It would, I guess, be better for town to lynch me than Madge, but only if she's telling the truth.

I'll try to get some reads out before the deadline, but it will likely be incomplete.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

I have specific reason to either not believe Madge or believe emlightened or both. I don't wish to reveal which because there's been too much claiming today already, and I don't want to reveal my role.

I can claim this much: I am not an independent, and I am more specifically not an independent with emlightened in any way. I have this knowledge/reasoning as a result of what Madge and emlightened have said in thread. I promise that D2 will be very helpful in sorting this all out if I'm still alive to help.

Unvote

I actually looked at the times and we have almost 2 hours left. If I can be the one to hammer, I have something else to claim that will be helpful in case I die N1. I'll revote before deadline even if I'm not the hammerer but I'm not sure it will be best for me to claim in that case.

The same kind of 'reading between the lines' that made me trust Chane makes me think that I know what Snark is hinting at. It still leaves some doubt in my mind for very meta reasons, however I'm willing to trust Snark on this one for the moment.

I'll start with Madge and post her first, because it will probably help anyone who's trying to decide who to lynch on who to lynch.

Diemo: He supports mpolo's miller claim confidently, but not fully. Then, he sees a power-town claim where there wasn't, and supports Snark blindly putting Sabrar as scum, even though that wasn't actually the case. Either he did that in a rush and didn't read things properly, or tried to lead us into who to be suspicious of. His following "Meh, fine." seems far to dismissive about what was said, and makes me think that he didn't really care that it was pointed out - that it was the latter. He corrects himself, and misinterprets my comment about his "Meh, FIne.", but I didn't correct him.

He's then extremely quick to vote on Snark, based on assumptions about role PMs - this seems like an excuse to vote to me. He unvotes in his next post, though which looks like a townie (or cautious scum) move. Flavour insert, which doesn't seem helpful. That's his last content in a moderate stretch before saying he read a spoiler. Overall: scummy; I couldn't find much stuff that was helpful to town.

Madge: I've had no interaction with her so far, so hi! She pops in with a quick post, saying that she doesn't want to lynch the newbie, and wants to look at players she has trouble reading again. Quick read on Chane and comments on other players; she finds Sabrar somewhat scummy for being so sure on Chane. She nameclaims*, and says who she thinks is towniest (2/3 of them were voting for her which is interesting but not very useful). Overall: Low on content, probably a neutral.

*I thought she roleclaimed and referenced the wiki for her role, hence why I did in full. Oops.

Okay, I might not be able to get anything else in today because tea's on the table. See y'all 'round the deadline.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

Reminder: If votals are tied, the player who reached the tied number first will be lynched. In particular, in the current situation, if a player unvotes Madge, but does not vote anyone else, emlightened will be lynched, as emlightened reached 3 votes before Madge did. If a player who is not voting currently votes emlightened, Madge will be lynched. Please ask if this is not clear.

Over the course of the day, many of the folk in the fortress city had been discussing with one another. There seemed to be no doubt amongst them that something sinister was afoot, but as yet very few people had any concrete evidence. As night approached, Lord Agelmar called them together. He knew that the followers of the Dark Lord needed to be found and cast out or imprisoned so that the horn would be kept safe. With suspicion already starting to cast its shadows about them, it was going to be almost impossible to know who to trust. With the Amyrlin breathing down his neck, he had to deal with things swiftly.

Was there really a Darkfriend amongst his soldiers? Or could it be one of the folk who had arrived with Moiraine? Could the Aes Sedai themselves even be trusted? The group talked about who they felt were the most suspicious, casting accusations at each other, even at the Aes Sedai. Uno, Masema, and others didn’t exactly call them Darkfriends, but they had been saying that they didn’t feel comfortable around them. Then again, who did?

Two of the group were eventually singled out for suspicion. One claimed to be Hurin, one of the Lord’s Sniffers, whilst another claimed to be the former Warder Elyas. It was no surprise that either had been particularly open, just to their past associations with Aes Sedai. Eventually, the Amyrlin announced, "Whilst I disapprove of one who was once Warder and who has left this noble calling, I feel that we must determine if this so-called Hurin is truly who he claims to be. This will take us some time. Take him away and lock him in a cell, until we have time to deal with him." Others nodded their heads in agreement.

Madge has been lynched and is "dead". Role reveal in the morning.

As the soldiers dragged the person off, the group split off and went to their rooms to be alone with their thoughts.

It is now Night. Please send in any night actions you may have. Night deadline is 19.30UTC, Monday 21st, three days from now.

Also, with Mod Madness (see announcement thread) starting, and mpolo being away for much of next week, which would be most of Day 2, I wish to discuss what people would like to do. Please PM myself and Suzaku your ranked order of preference of the following options:Continue as normal (Day 2 deadline will be Monday 28th). Evaluate at the end of Day 2.Extend Night 1 until after Mod Madness is over.Run Night 1 until Monday, but then do not start Day 2 until after Mod Madness.Have a long Day 2 with deadline after Mod Madness.Some other suggestion (please specify).Never mind. Looks like Mod Madness has already started, so I guess we'll extend N1 until it is over, unless everybody particularly feels like it is a good idea to try to play with word filtering shenanigans... - please let me know your thoughts.

With Mod Madness now over (I think), and with Easter weekend now upon us, I am setting a new deadline for N1 of Monday, 28th March, 19.30pm UTC (deadline will be HARD, to allow for night action processing after the event). Day 2 will likely start within 24 hours of then.

IMPORTANT: Even if you have already submitted a night action or otherwise contacted the mods tonight, please send Suzaku and I a PM to confirm that you are still around (a night action is sufficient for this purpose). Those who do not do so risk being replaced.

It had been a rough night for many of the inhabitants of the fortress. With fears of what any servants of the Dark Lord might get up to, many struggled to sleep, and ended up wandering the halls for much of the night, seeking to talk to one another, and simply to take their mind off of things. Eventually, most of them turned in for the night.

Egwene awoke as the light of dawn filtered through the shutters in her room. She had had troubled dreams all night, revolving around trollocs attacking and people disappearing or being murdered. She needed to talk with someone, and didn’t feel like disturbing Moiraine, who was no doubt already closeted away with the Amyrlin, and Nynaeve was still fast asleep. Instead, she decided to go and find Perrin.

Leaving the women’s quarters, she made her way to where the three boys from the Two Rivers had been sent, and knocked on Perrin’s door. When there was no reply, she let herself in. Perrin wasn’t anywhere to be seen in the room. Odd, she thought. It was unlikely he’d already be up and gone out. As she was turning to leave and go look for him, she spotted a hastily scribbled note on the table in the middle of the room.

“It is clear that I am not wanted around here, and that everybody would be better off without me. I have decided to leave and go home. Do not try to stop me. I can look after myself, and there are those who will help. Perrin.”

Egwene couldn’t believe what she read, and re-read the short note. A quick look around revealed that Perrin had taken his axe and other belongings. He truly was gone. Egwene knew that Perrin had somehow formed some sort of bond with the wolves. Presumably that was who he meant by saying that there were people who would help him. Indeed, she vaguely recalled that he’d mentioned to her something about the wolves helping him find Darkfriends.

Snark has left the fortress and is “dead”. He was Perrin Aybara, a wolf brother and member of the Town faction. By communicating with the wolves he could determine if one person was a Darkfriend or not each night.

Shaken, she went to tell the others. She then decided to make her way down to the dungeons to go and talk with the prisoners down there. She felt sorry for many of them and thought that by holding conversation with them, they’d feel better. As she got down, it was clear that something else was wrong. Igelmar, and several others were talking loudly in the guard room.

“Where is he? It’s not like Masema to abandon his post like that?” Igelmar said.

“I don’t know,” came the reply from Uno. I came down here to relieve him and he wasn’t around. “Nobody has seen him since the middle of the night. Mind you, nobody really liked him. In fact I heard that he was a Darkfriend. Not that I believe that - have you seen how often he visits the shrine to the Light?”

“Indeed, I can only feel that something must have happened to him,” responded Igelmar.

Mpolo has vanished and is “dead”. He was Masema Dagar, the Jailer and a member of the Town faction. Each night he could target one person who would be both immune all actions and unable to perform any actions that night. He would also appear as a Darkfriend to people’s investigations.

Now really concerned, Egwene looked for Moiraine. She found her just as she was going into her room, but she had her cloak on. It was clear that she’d been beyond the fortress. Quizzically, Egwene asked her where she’d been.

“I spent some time speaking with the one everyone was calling Madge or Diemo, to find out if he truly was the one known as Hurin. I am certain that he was and that he is not a Darkfriend. Since many of the others seemed unhappy with him, I thought it best that he be freed and sent to camp outside the walls.” Moiraine explained.

That was unusually forthcoming from the Aes Sedai, but presumably the events of the night had shaken her somehow. Still, it was odd. Moiraine went on to say that Lord Agelmar had told her that Hurin was one of his best thief-takers, and that he could track anyone across any terrain. Apparently he had some very unusual skills, including being able to sniff out evil.

Madge was lynched. She was Hurin, a Sniffer and member of the Town faction. Each night she could target one person, and would be informed the name of one of the people (if any), chosen at random, who targeted her target, other than herself.CORRECTION: Madge was Hurin, a Sniffer and Town. Each night she could target a player, and would be informed of the name of one random player who that player targeted (if any).

Clearly the servants of the Dark Lord had gained from last night. They had to be flushed out.

It is now Day 2. Soft deadline is at 18.30 UTC, Monday, 4th April. With 7 alive, it’s 4 to lynch.

So we probably have an SK after all. Very bad news.Please claim if you have any relevant night results, as I mentioned before I would prefer if emlightened could be the first.After the claims I want Chane to prove herself as she promised D1.

As I seem to be online now, I'll say that I tracked Sabrar, but got no result.

This means that either (in order of decreasing likelihood) Sabrar targeted nobody, Mpolo roleblocked me, or a Darkfeind roleblocked me.

So this looks like 2 indies (1 probable SK, 1 Survivor), 2 mafia (3 would be unbalanced, because then a mafia-survivor win would be imminent), and 3 surviving town. If there are three mafia, please claim so we can win together

Anyway, I'll look at the more interesting claims as people claim them.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."