Keeping Pacehttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/default.aspxStaff writer Frank Angst examines racing, handicapping, and other mysteries.enCommunityServer 2007.1 (Build: 20917.1142)Breeders' Cup Could Determine Europe's Top Awardhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/11/02/breeders-cup-could-determine-europe-s-top-award.aspxFri, 02 Nov 2018 17:52:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:649013Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=649013http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/11/02/breeders-cup-could-determine-europe-s-top-award.aspx#comments<p>The Breeders' Cup welcoming top international horses is not news, but it's worth pausing to consider the lineup for this year's World Championships that arrived from overseas.</p><p>There is the current frontrunner for the Cartier Award as Europe's Horse of the Year, Roaring Lion, who already has won four group 1 races this year in England and Ireland. Roaring Lion, a Kentucky-bred son of Kitten's Joy, will try dirt for the first time in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).</p><p>In fact, the Classic is a truly an international test this year with Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (G1) winner Thunder Snow (IRE) and UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed &amp; Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2) winner Mendelssohn, who enters the Classic off a third-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) Sept. 29 at Belmont Park.</p><p><a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/230474/accelerate-aims-to-create-some-horse-of-the-year-debate" mce_href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/230474/accelerate-aims-to-create-some-horse-of-the-year-debate">Accelerate Aims to Create Horse of the Year Debate</a>&nbsp;</p><p>Then there is the two-time Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner Enable (GB), who is favored in the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T). Despite missing most of the season because of injury, Enable could make a run at Europe's top honor if she becomes the first horse to sweep the Arc and Turf in the same year.</p><p>Those four standouts represent some of the world's top owners in Coolmore (Mendelssohn), Juddmonte Farms (Enable), Godolphin (Thunder Snow), and Qatar Racing (Roaring Lion).</p><p>Breeders' Cup always goes a long way toward determining North American champions. But with those international equine stars in place, the World Championships also could prove crucial in determining Europe's champions.</p><p>With 222 points, Roaring Lion currently holds a clear lead in both the Cartier Horse of the Year and Cartier 3-year-old colt categories. Victory in the Classic would boost his leading position. Despite racing just twice this season, Enable could still challenge for Cartier Horse of the Year and Cartier Older Horse, especially if she triumphs Nov. 3. </p><p>"There is a strong European challenge for the 2018 Breeders' Cup, and the performances of Enable and Roaring Line at Churchill Downs will help determine the winner of the Cartier Horse Of The Year Award," said Harry Herbert, racing consultant to the Cartier Awards.</p><p>Those four standouts lead a contingent of 43 foreign-trained Breeders' Cup entries (44 if you count Quarteto de Cordas (BRZ), who will make his United States debut in the Turf for Ian Wilkes after racing in his native Brazil) that has the international barn bursting at the seams. That number nearly matches the record 46 entered last year.</p><p>"It's important for the 'World Championships' branding of Breeders' Cup that this be a truly international event," said Breeders' Cup vice president of racing and nominations Dora Delgado.</p><p>A number of changes contributed to the impressive number and quality of international runners at Breeders' Cup. Delgado credited an up to $40,000 travel allowance for overseas horses easing owner costs, an increase in overseas Challenge races keeping the event out front with horsemen, and old-fashioned recruiting led by Breeders' Cup director of racing and nominations Joshua Christian, who spends the racing season in Europe.</p><p>Delgado said Christian's on-site presence helps horsemen with any level of interest in Breeders' Cup, informing them on everything from eligibility to purses to what Breeders' Cup has to offer and what to expect in making the trip. With Dubai, Hong Kong, Australia, and others trying to land the world's top horses, Delgado said Breeders' Cup has to compete.</p><p>"It's such a small group of horses that everyone is after," Delgado noted.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=649013" width="1" height="1">Breeders' CupCartierRoaring LionEnableEuropeFive Breeders' Cup Winners Look for More Successhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/10/26/five-breeders-cup-winners-look-for-more-success.aspxFri, 26 Oct 2018 15:57:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:649004Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=649004http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/10/26/five-breeders-cup-winners-look-for-more-success.aspx#comments<p>Three horses will try to defend their Breeders' Cup titles, and a pair of horses who won juvenile races at the event will look for more success in this year's World Championships.</p><p>The three horses looking to repeat their 2017 success in the same race are Roy H in the TwinSpires Sprint (G1), Stormy Liberal in the Turf Sprint (G1T), and Talismanic in the Longines Turf (G1T). Also looking to add to their Breeders' Cup success are last year's Juvenile Turf (G1T) winner Mendelssohn, who will try this year's Classic (G1), and 2016 Juvenile Turf victor Oscar Performance, who will run in the Mile (G1T).</p><p>Here is a quick look at the recent form of each of these Breeders' Cup winners.</p><p><b>Roy H</b><br>Rockingham Ranch and David Bernsen's Roy H delivered another strong season in 2018, and, like last year, will enter the Sprint off a clear victory in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G1)--a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race. From four 2018 starts, all in graded stakes, he has two wins and two placings.</p><p>The year included the first international start for the 6-year-old More Than Ready gelding, when he finished third in the Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (G1). In his only other start outside of California, Roy H won last year's True North Stakes (G2) at Belmont Park. This year's Sprint would mark the first start at Churchill Downs for Roy H.</p><p><b>Stormy Liberal</b><br>With their typically large fields and little margin for error, turf sprints can be chaotic, but Stormy Liberal has tamed the beast as he enters this year's Turf Sprint off three consecutive wins, the most recent being the Eddie D Stakes (G3T) down the hill at Santa Anita Park.</p><p>While Stormy Liberal has enjoyed success racing down the hill at 6 1/2 furlongs, the 6-year-old Stormy Atlantic gelding also has excelled at the type of course offered at Churchill, a 5 1/2-furlong course. While the seven-time stakes winner will be starting at Churchill for the first time and trying the distance for the first time on turf, he has three wins in as many starts sprinting five furlongs on the grass--all at Del Mar--including last year's narrow victory over stablemate Richard's Boy in the Turf Sprint.</p><p><b>Talismanic</b><br>With the pre-entry of two-time Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1) winner Enable in this year's Turf, the return of last year's winner, Talismanic, has been a bit overshadowed.</p><p>The 5-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro also raced in the 2018 Arc, finishing off the board. But perhaps a return to the tight turns of American turf racing is what Godolphin's Talismanic needs--his lone top-level win came in last year's Turf. </p><p>While Talismanic was more consistent ahead of his win in last year's Turf, he has been respectable this year, adding a group 3 win and group 2 placing in France. </p><p><b>Mendelssohn</b><br>Michael Tabor, Susan Magnier, and Derrick Smith's Mendelssohn has the advantage of a previous start over the Churchill surface, although it's one his connections and supporters would prefer to forget. On a sloppy track, Mendelssohn finished last in this year's Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1).</p><p>That race marked the second start on dirt for Mendelssohn, who won last year's Juvenile Turf by one length. The son of Scat Daddy and half brother to three-time Breeders' Cup winner Beholder rolled to an easy win in this year's UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed &amp; Mohammed Al Maboodah Group (G2) on the dirt at Meydan.</p><p>Since those two extremes in his first two dirt starts, Mendelssohn has put together three straight solid runs over the surface, earning placings in the Dwyer (G3), Runhappy Travers (G1), and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) stakes. He'll look to put it all together in the 1 1/4-mile Classic.</p><p><b>Oscar Performance</b><br>Like Mendelssohn, Oscar Performance's previous Breeders' Cup win came in the Juvenile Turf two years ago. Last year, he gave the Turf a try, finishing ninth after leading early in that 1 1/2-mile test.</p><p>This year, Amerman Racing's Oscar Performance will try the Mile, where he figures to be one of the top contenders off his clear victory in the Sept. 15 Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1T)--a Challenge race for entry into the Mile.</p><p>A 4-year-old son of Kitten's Joy, Oscar Performance will be starting on the Churchill turf for the second time after finishing off the board in the 2017 American Turf Stakes Presented by Ram Trucks (G2T).</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=649004" width="1" height="1">Breeders' CupMendelssohnTalismanicStormy LiberalRoy HOscar PerformanceTrio of Preps for New Breeders' Cup Race This Weekendhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/10/05/trio-of-preps-for-new-breeders-cup-race-this-weekend.aspxFri, 05 Oct 2018 15:08:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648987Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648987http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/10/05/trio-of-preps-for-new-breeders-cup-race-this-weekend.aspx#comments<p>Looking for something new in a jam-packed weekend of stakes races, many of which serve as key steppingstones to the Breeders' Cup World Championships?</p><p>The three North American Breeders' Cup Challenge races to the inaugural Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs will be contested this weekend at Santa Anita Park, Belmont Park, and Keeneland. </p><p>Santa Anita gets the ball rolling Oct. 6 with the five-furlong--yes five-furlong--Speakeasy Stakes on the turf. Santa Anita has traditionally run its turf sprints down the hill at 6 1/2 furlongs, but it recently added a five-furlong configuration that sticks to the main turf course.</p><p>That race will be followed Sunday by the Indian Summer Stakes at Keeneland, 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf, and the Futurity Stakes (G3T) at Belmont going six furlongs on the Widener course.</p><p>As you might guess, given his skills with both young horses and in turf sprints, trainer Wesley Ward will be well-represented in all three races.</p><p>In the Speakeasy, Ward has 2-1 morning-line favorite Mae Never No (IRE), a daughter of No Nay Never who enters off a seven-length romp in the five-furlong Colleen Stakes Aug. 4 at Monmouth Park. As the Colleen was scheduled for the turf but moved to the sloppy main track, the Speakeasy will mark the turf debut for Mae Never No.</p><p>But the filly would seem a good fit as a daughter of No Nay Never, who also was trained by Ward and finished second to stablemate Bobby's Kitten in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1T) at Santa Anita. At 2, Ward shipped No Nay Never to Europe, where he won a pair of top turf sprints: the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot and the Darley Prix Morney (G1) at Deauville.</p><p>At his Keeneland base, Ward will saddle Chelsea Cloisters, a daughter of First Samurai who finished second in the Prix du Bois (G3) at Deauville, and impressive maiden winner Abaco Dream, by Bodemeister, in the Indian Summer. He also could send out Jo Jo Air, a maiden daughter of Scat Daddy who is on the also-eligible list.</p><p>In the Futurity, Ward has a pair of juveniles who prepped at Kentucky Downs in filly Dragic, a daughter of Broken Vow who finished third in the one-mile Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes (G3), and colt Fayette Warrior, a son of Exchange Rate who rolled to a 4 1/4-length maiden win there at 6 1/2 furlongs.</p><p>The only other Challenge race offered for this year's Juvenile Turf Sprint was the June 21 Norfolk Stakes at Ascot where Shang Shang Shang prevailed by a nose. Shang Shang Shang is trained by none other than ... Wesley Ward.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648987" width="1" height="1">KeenelandSanta Anita DerbyBreeders' Cup Juvenile Turf SprintWesley WardBelmontSpeakeasyFuturityIndian SummerThunder Snow Could Make History in Classichttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/09/28/thunder-snow-could-make-history-in-classic.aspxFri, 28 Sep 2018 14:31:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648981Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648981http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/09/28/thunder-snow-could-make-history-in-classic.aspx#comments<p>When Godolphin Racing's Thunder Snow (IRE) starts in the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) Sept. 29 at Belmont Park, it could mark an important step toward a historic run in the Nov. 3 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Churchill Downs.</p><p>Thunder Snow has shipped to the United States with the goal of becoming the fifth horse to post victories in both the Dubai World Cup Sponsored By Emirates Airline (G1) and Breeders' Cup Classic, and the first to win the two races in the same season. A sweep of the two lucrative races run at 1 1/4 miles would also make Thunder Snow the first horse based outside the U.S. to win both races.</p><p>The first horse to sweep the two races was Cigar, who won the 1995 Breeders' Cup Classic and then secured the inaugural Dubai World Cup. He was followed by Pleasantly Perfect, winner of the 2003 Classic and 2004 World Cup; Curlin, winner of the 2007 Classic and 2008 World Cup; and most recently Arrogate in the 2016 Classic and 2017 World Cup.</p><p>Previous horses to win the Dubai World Cup and then start in the Breeders' Cup Classic in the same season include Silver Charm, who posted a nose victory over Swain (IRE) at Nad Al Sheba before finishing second to Awesome Again in the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic. Swain finished third in that memorable Classic at Churchill.</p><p>In 1999, Shadwell Stable homebred Almutawakel (GB) won the Dubai World Cup over the likes of Malek (CHI) and Victory Gallop before finishing fifth in that year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Gulfstream Park, which was won by Cat Thief.</p><p>Saeed bin Suroor saddled Almutawakel in Dubai and the son of Machiavellian was transferred to Mark Hennig for conditioning in the U.S. He prepped for the Breeders' Cup with a runner-up finish in the Woodward Stakes (G1), beaten a nose by River Keen (IRE), before finishing third to that rival in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.</p><p>While Curlin won both races in different years, he also had an opportunity to sweep the races in 2008 but finished fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic on the former synthetic surface at Santa Anita Park.</p><p>The most recent horse with an opportunity to win the two races in the same season was two-time Horse of the Year California Chrome, who rolled to a 3 3/4-length score in 2016 at Meydan over Mubtaahij (IRE) before yielding to the late charge of Arrogate in the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. Arrogate then went on to win the 2017 Dubai World Cup.</p><p>For Thunder Snow, the Classic would mark a return to Churchill, where he bucked at the start of the 2017 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) and was pulled up early. Upon returning to Europe, the son of Helmet (AUS) placed second in the Tattersalls Irish Two Thousand Guineas (G1) and won the Prix Jean Prat (G1).</p><p><i>This&nbsp;story originally ran in the Sept. 28 edition of <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/daily" target="_blank" mce_href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/daily">BloodHorse Daily</a> as an entry to the regular column The Challenge, presented by Darby Dan Farm, which runs each Friday in BH Daily.&nbsp;</i></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648981" width="1" height="1">Breeders' Cup ClassicCalifornia ChromeThunder SnowDubai World CupDerby Winners, Family, Springsteen, and John Asherhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/08/27/derby-winners-family-springsteen-and-john-asher.aspxTue, 28 Aug 2018 02:46:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648953Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648953http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/08/27/derby-winners-family-springsteen-and-john-asher.aspx#comments<p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Many thoughts filled my head today (Aug. 27) on the news of John Asher's passing, a bunch all at once, and then seemingly one&nbsp;about every hour
as I thought, “I can’t believe John is gone.”</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">These are a few of the many pleasant memories.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">In terms of John Asher’s professionalism, I’ll share the most recent example. All writers and reporters will get this right away, for those who are not,
I’ll try to explain a bit.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">On Friday, I called John about Churchill maneuvering to end
racing on its Calder property in Florida. He was out of the office but I had his cell phone number, as did every other reporter, because John
included&nbsp;it in every email and on his work voicemail.
From many years of working with John, he was perfectly good with you calling that
number. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">He didn’t answer the cell but I left a message. John called
back within two minutes, explaining that he’d been driving and needed to find a
place to pull over to call back. (He’s apologizing and I’m thinking, ‘John do
you realize how many times I’ve waited hours for a return call or never got one?’)
Learning details of his passing today, now I wonder if John was already on
vacation when he called back? It wouldn’t surprise me.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Anyway that was John, he was there for you and felt bad if
he wasn’t there for you right away. That would go for him professionally and
personally.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">As for Friday’s conversation, he said he wasn’t sure anyone
would comment but he’d get the right person to contact me soon. John understood
that if a reporter is calling, it usually meant that we were looking to post
the story ASAP. The Churchill representative got a hold of me and she had no
comment, which is what I figured all along. But as a reporter, you give all
involved an opportunity to comment and it’s important to hear back either way. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">A former reporter himself, John always understood what it
was like to be the person on the other end of the phone trying to put a story
together and he was such a pro that I never encountered a time when he didn’t
help me out as soon as he could. Beyond that, he enjoyed working with people
and helping them as best he could. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">We chatted a bit as well, nothing too deep, but his
perpetual good mood poured through the phone. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">While that’s the story fresh in mind, what I’ll recall most
about John is his love of his family, the Derby, racing, Churchill Downs, Bruce
Springsteen, and live music. I always looked forward to seeing John during Derby
week. During the busiest of weeks, his enthusiasm would always provide me a
boost as we discussed how things were coming together for this year’s race, as
well as updating our lives—typically since last November’s racing--and the
latest concerts he’d attended. The latter would serve as reminder that I’d
slowed a bit in my concert attendance—John most assuredly never did.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Those passions would always result in a great story from John.
In writing stories, I’m constantly re-writing, moving sentences, moving
paragraphs, changing words&nbsp;to get the story just right. John would tell his stories, stories
with beginnings, middle, a climax, and an end. How did he do that? </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">And the voice relaying those stories was flawless. He must’ve
been something to hear each day on the radio. I wasn't in Louisville, Ky. for that.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Another of the many thoughts about John today? He was one
heck of a handicapper, especially when it came to little nuggets about
Churchill Downs. Ahead of the 2011 Kentucky Derby, I found myself liking Animal
Kingdom—a horse I’d seen in person win his maiden race the previous fall on the
Polytrack at Keeneland and then that spring take the Spiral Stakes at Turfway
Park. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Team Valor’s Animal Kingdom also had run on turf but would
be making his dirt debut in the Derby. In talking with John, he noted that a
lot of times horses with turf pedigrees—Animal Kingdom is by successful turf
runner Leroidesanimaux—would run well on the Churchill main track. That was
enough push for me, and I opted to win bet both Dialed In—I couldn’t completely
get away from him—and Animal Kingdom that year—which worked out well as the
latter won at 20-1.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Derby winners are hard to come by, as are people like John
Asher.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Today was a tough day at BloodHorse as everyone in the
office, and beyond, was upset to hear about John’s passing. Ron Mitchell fought
through his grief to put a <a href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing" mce_href="https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing">nice obituary</a> together. </font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">We’ll all miss John Asher.</font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
</font></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648953" width="1" height="1">Churchill DownsKentucky DerbyAnimal KingdomobituaryJohn AsherBruce SpringsteenJustify Would be Second Undefeated Triple Crown Winnerhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/06/05/justify-would-be-second-undefeated-triple-crown-winner.aspxTue, 05 Jun 2018 13:06:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648881Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648881http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/06/05/justify-would-be-second-undefeated-triple-crown-winner.aspx#comments<p>As if the Triple Crown club—at just 12 winners—wasn't exclusive enough, the number of undefeated horses to sweep the American classics is so exclusive that—with only&nbsp;Seattle Slew accomplishing the feat—it's not even a club.</p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.1px; font-family: 'Open Sans', Calibri, Candara, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span>Justify </span>will look to become the 13th Triple Crown winner and second undefeated Triple Crown winner in the June 9 Belmont Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. The Road takes this opportunity to recall the four previous Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) winners to enter the Belmont with an unblemished record.</p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.1px; font-family: 'Open Sans', Calibri, Candara, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Majestic Prince (1969)</b><br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Record going into Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>Nine wins in nine starts, including six stakes<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Odds in Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>6-5<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Outcome:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>Derby and Preakness runner-up Arts and Letters came&nbsp;up big in the year's final classic. Second-choice in the wagering at 8-5, Arts and Letters tracked in second early, took the lead through a mile in 1:40 1/5, and drew off to a 5 1/2-length score.&nbsp;Majestic Prince rallied&nbsp;for second but never threatened&nbsp;the winner.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Quotable:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>"When I saw how far back we were laying off the pace, five lengths with a half in :51, I told (owner Frank) McMahon right then, I said, 'We're gonna be second.'"—<i style="box-sizing: border-box;">Johnny Longden, trainer of Majestic Prince</i></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.1px; font-family: 'Open Sans', Calibri, Candara, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Seattle Slew (1977)<br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Record going into Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>Eight wins in eight starts, including five grade 1 stakes<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Odds in Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>2-5<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Outcome:<span>&nbsp;</span></b>Facing an off track for the first time proved no problem for Seattle Slew. Just as he did in three previous grade 1 stakes, Seattle Slew led at every point of call on his way to a four-length score in the Belmont, completing 1 1/2 miles in 2:29 3/5 on a muddy track.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Quotable:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>"Winning a Triple Crown is something any horseman dreams about all his life. You dream about it, but you don't expect it. More than that, you don't expect to do it as easily as this horse has."—<i style="box-sizing: border-box;">Billy Turner, trainer of Seattle Slew</i></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.1px; font-family: 'Open Sans', Calibri, Candara, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;"><span>Smarty Jones </span>(2004)<br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Record going into Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>Eight wins in eight starts including seven stakes victories,&nbsp;two grade 1<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Odds in Belmont:<span>&nbsp;</span></b>1-5<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Outcome:<span>&nbsp;</span></b>After contesting the early pace, Smarty Jones seized the lead just after a half-mile in :48.65. He opened his advantage to 3 1/2 lengths at the quarter pole, but Birdstone, a grade 1 winner at 2 who skipped the Preakness after finishing eighth in the Derby, rallied five wide in the far turn into second. Birdstone and Edgar Prado continued that rally to catch Smarty Jones in deep stretch and registered a one-length score. Smarty Jones finished second, eight lengths ahead of Royal Assault.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Quotable:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>"I feel so awful for Smarty Jones. We were hoping we'd be second. I love Smarty Jones. He's done more for racing than anyone I've ever known."—<i style="box-sizing: border-box;">Marylou Whitney, owner and breeder of Birdstone</i></p><p style="margin: 0px 0px 1em; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.1px; font-family: 'Open Sans', Calibri, Candara, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-style: normal; font-weight: 400; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Big Brown (2008)<br style="box-sizing: border-box;">Record going into Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>Five wins in as many starts, including three grade 1 stakes<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Odds in Belmont:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>1-5<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Outcome:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>In one of the most mysterious racing performances in history, Big Brown was rank in the early going then raced third through a half-mile in :48.30&nbsp;and a mile in 1:37.96&nbsp;where he raced seven wide into the far turn. Asked for run on the far turn, Big Brown dropped back abruptly midway and was pulled up approaching the quarter pole.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;"><b style="font-weight: bold; box-sizing: border-box;">Quotable:</b><span>&nbsp;</span>"I just felt so badly for the horse. When I went back to see him after the race, I put my arms around him for a good minute and he just rested his head on my shoulder."—<i style="box-sizing: border-box;">Michael Iavarone, co-president of Big Brown co-owner IEAH Stables</i></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648881" width="1" height="1">Triple CrownJustifySeattle SlewundefeatedSmarty JonesBig BrownMajestic PrinceWinStar Going for Third Belmont Win Since 2010http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/05/29/winstar-going-for-third-belmont-win-since-2010.aspxTue, 29 May 2018 19:04:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648875Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648875http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/05/29/winstar-going-for-third-belmont-win-since-2010.aspx#comments<p>The biggest history on the line for Justify in the June 9 Belmont Stakes (G1) will be the opportunity to become the 13th Triple Crown winner, but Kenny Troutt's WinStar Farm is also in position for landmark achievements.</p><p>Should Justify win the Belmont, WinStar will become the first owner of the 21st century to have three Belmont winners. Also, WinStar would become the first owner since Belair Stud in the 1930s to have three or more Belmont winners in the same calendar decade. </p><p>WinStar secured its first Belmont victory in 2010 with Drosselmeyer (Bill Casner was then a partner with Troutt at WinStar) and followed in 2016 with Creator, a horse co-owned with Bobby Flay. Justify is campaigned by WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, Head of Plains Partners, and Starlight Racing. Amazingly, Belair Stud registered five Belmont wins in the 1930s: Gallant Fox (1930), Faireno (1932), Omaha (1935), Granville (1936), and Johnstown (1939).</p><p>Belair Stud's six Belmont wins--its other victory came with Nashua in 1955--are tied with James R. Keene for the most in the race's history. Keene's wins came from 1879-1910.</p><p>King Ranch's three Belmont winners came within an eight-year stretch, but in different calendar decades in Assault (1946), Middleground (1950), and High Gun (1954). Should Justify win, WinStar would join King Ranch with three Belmont victories and would be just the eighth owner to register at least three wins in the New York classic.</p><p>The other owners with three or more Belmont wins are: the Belmont family, five wins from 1869-1983; Mike and Phil Dwyer, who won the race five times in the 19th century; Glen Riddle Farms, four wins from 1920-1937; and Greentree Stable, four wins from 1931-1968.</p><p>A total of 18 owners have won the Belmont more than once.</p><p><b>WinStar Farm's Belmont Stakes Starters</b><br>Year&nbsp;Horse&nbsp;Finish<br>2006&nbsp;Bluegrass Cat&nbsp;2<br>2009&nbsp;Mr. Hot Stuff&nbsp;8<br>2010&nbsp;Drosselmeyer&nbsp;1<br>2013&nbsp;Revolutionary&nbsp;5<br>2014&nbsp;Commissioner&nbsp;2<br>2016&nbsp;Gettysburg&nbsp;8<br>2016&nbsp;Creator&nbsp;1</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648875" width="1" height="1">Belmont ParkBelmont StakesJustifyKenny TrouttWinStar FarmOne Trend Against Justify in 2018 Preakness Stakeshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/05/14/one-trend-against-justify-in-2018-preakness-stakes.aspxMon, 14 May 2018 17:36:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648849Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648849http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/05/14/one-trend-against-justify-in-2018-preakness-stakes.aspx#comments<p>As Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) winner Justify prepares for the May 19 Preakness Stakes (G1), he has plenty of trends in his favor, including Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's amazing record of winning the Baltimore classic each of the four times he's entered the Derby winner.</p><p>But there is one recent trend going against this year's Kentucky Derby winner: Six of the past seven horses to win the Derby on an off track failed to win the Preakness, including the past four in a row. In the past 50 years, seven of the nine off-track Derby winners failed in their Preakness try.</p><p>That 22% win rate in the past 50 years is a small sample, but knowing the problems that can arise after racing on an off track--for instance, Justify's heel issue this week--perhaps there's a bit more to the stat than a random trend. The 1 3/16-mile Preakness is contested just two weeks after the 1 1/4-mile Derby. </p><p>In the past 50 years, the Derby has been contested on a fast track 41 times. In those 41 races, the Derby winner came back to win the Preakness 18 times (44%). If you remove the three Derby winners from the past 50 years who did not contest the Preakness, that percentage jumps to 47%.</p><p>The past four horses to win the Derby on an off track each lost the Preakness: Always Dreaming last year, Orb in 2013, Super Saver in 2010, and Mine That Bird in 2009.</p><p>Always Dreaming won the Derby on a wet-fast track. Then, as the 6-5 favorite in the Preakness, he finished eighth to Cloud Computing. Orb also disappointed as the Preakness favorite. At 3-5, he wasn't able to launch his late kick and settled for fourth behind front-running winner Oxbow.</p><p>Super Saver, the 9-5 favorite in the Preakness, contested early but faded to eighth as second-choice Lookin At Lucky claimed victory for Baffert. Mine That Bird ran a credible Preakness as the 6-1 third choice but he finished second to favored filly and eventual Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.</p><p>Always Dreaming hasn't won since the Derby and Orb, Super Saver, and Mine That Bird never won after the Derby.</p><p>The two off-track Derby winners in the past 50 years to take the Preakness were Smarty Jones, who won the Derby on a sloppy track in 2004, and Sunday Silence, who won the Derby on a muddy surface in 1989. The other three off-track Derby winners to come up short in the Preakness were Go for Gin (1994, sloppy), Unbridled (1990, good), and Dust Commander (1970, good). Dust Commander was off the board in the Preakness, but Go for Gin and Unbridled each finished second.</p><p>Of course Justify isn't much on stats. He did just end the Apollo curse, which dated back to the 19th century.<br></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648849" width="1" height="1">JustifyPreakness StakesPletcher Finishes 2018 as King of the Road to the Kentucky Derbyhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/30/pletcher-finishes-2018-as-king-of-the-road-to-the-kentucky-derby.aspxMon, 30 Apr 2018 16:14:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648833Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648833http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/30/pletcher-finishes-2018-as-king-of-the-road-to-the-kentucky-derby.aspx#comments<p>On April 27, trainer Todd Pletcher sent out Audible, Magnum Moon, Noble Indy, and Vino Rosso for their final pre-Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) workouts at Churchill Downs.</p><p>That would be this year's respective Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) winner, Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) winner, and Wood Memorial Stakes presented by NYRA Bets Stakes (G2) winner. In the 21st century, no trainer has won four of the six biggest United States Derby preps--based on the current Road to the Kentucky Derby system, which also lists the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) in that category--with four different horses in the same year.</p><p>In 2013, Pletcher won three of the races with three different horses, and in four other years he has won two in the same year. But four is the new standard.</p><p>Keep in mind that because of date changes of these races and horses starting fewer times ahead of the classics, racing has only recently entered an era where horses generally only start in one of these six races. </p><p>Before Pletcher this year, the most recent trainer to win four of these six races in a single year was Bobby Frankel, who sent out Empire Maker in 2003 to victories in the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial and Peace Rules to scores in the Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass.</p><p>Pletcher figures to set the standard for career Derby starts this year as he currently is tied with his mentor, D. Wayne Lukas, for most starts in the Louisville classic with 48. Pletcher said there's Derby-week pressure for a trainer whether you have one starter or multiple starters. </p><p>"It goes both ways. In some ways, it adds more pressure because you have more horses you're trying to prepare and hoping everything goes smoothly. I also think when you only have one, that's pressure, too, because if something happens, you're out of the race period," Pletcher said. "So it kind of goes both ways."</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648833" width="1" height="1">4.5 Million Reasons to Love the New Tax Ruleshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/20/4-5-million-reasons-to-love-the-new-tax-rules.aspxFri, 20 Apr 2018 15:02:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648823Frank Angst1http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648823http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/20/4-5-million-reasons-to-love-the-new-tax-rules.aspx#comments<p>About 2,000 bettors went home happy after playing the mandatory-payout Rainbow 6 wager March 31 at Gulfstream Park. Thanks to new tax reporting and withholding rules put in place during the fall, the joy figures to spread through racing for quite some time.</p><p>Betting the Rainbow 6 on this year's Florida Derby day card at Gulfstream has provided the best example yet of how pari-mutuel wagering will benefit from the new tax reporting and withholding rules that redefine how 300-1 odds thresholds for reporting and withholding are determined on multiple-combination tickets for exotic wagers. In short, more than $4.5 million that immediately would have been collected by the U.S. Treasury in previous years instead stayed in bettors' hands that day.</p><p>Gulfstream offers a Rainbow 6 wager that only pays out the entire pool if there is a single winner. The exception to this rule is on mandatory payout days, when the entire pool is paid out to any horseplayers with the correct six selections (or highest number of correct selections, if no bettor hits all six).</p><p>The wager costs just 20 cents to play it straight, but most bettors play a number of combinations to try to cover various possible scenarios. With a massive carryover, a mandatory payout, and top-quality racing to entice bettors, the March 31 Rainbow 6 pool swelled past $16.5 million.</p><p>After takeout the 1,999 winning bettors each collected $9,513. Until the rules defining a big payout were redefined in late September, each one of those winning tickets would have been considered a 20-cent play. At that level every one of those winning tickets would have qualified as a payout above the 300-1 threshold--and because the payouts exceeded $5,000--each winning ticket would have seen the IRS immediately withhold 25%.</p><p>That policy would have resulted in the IRS immediately grabbing $2,378.25 from each of those winning tickets, leaving just $7,134.75 for each winner. That's a total of $4,754,122 that would have left bettors' hands and gone to the IRS. This year any ticket that cost a bettor $31.71 or more would not have had any money withheld. Horseplayers do have to report end-of-the year winnings but can claim losses against those earnings.</p><p>Gulfstream Park director of mutuels Ed Mackie conservatively estimated 95% of this year's winners would have spent $32 or more on their winning tickets. Using that estimate it's fair to say that more than $4.5 million stayed in bettors' hands thanks to the tax changes. Mackie actually believes the percentage of players who bet $32 or more is likely in the 98% range, but was being conservative.</p><p>"It really may only be two or three players who didn't spend that much money," Mackie said.</p><p>One of the on-track winners at Gulfstream was one of those who was subjected to the withholding. The player's winning ticket included three single selections that all won their races, along with seven horses, three horses, and four horses in the other legs--a $16.80 ticket.</p><p>In handicapping, sometimes you can be too good.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648823" width="1" height="1">Gulfstream ParktakeoutreportingwithholdingRainbow 6tax parimutuelFour Horses on the Derby Bubblehttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/13/four-horses-on-the-derby-bubble.aspxFri, 13 Apr 2018 20:13:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648815Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648815http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/04/13/four-horses-on-the-derby-bubble.aspx#comments<p>The connections of four horses being considered for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) will be watching the season's final two Road to the Kentucky Derby points races closely April 14.</p><p>The race with the most potential to upset the apple cart is the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, which offers points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to its respective top four finishers. Also in play is the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland, which rewards points of 20-8-4-2 to its top finishers.</p><p>In the listing below of the top 25 points earners, the top 15 horses have nailed down starting spots, from Good Magic in the top spot to Free Drop Billy at 15. Grownkowski, who is listed at 20, is in through his automatic bid in the European Road to the Kentucky Derby.</p><p>That leaves Lone Sailor, 42 points; Hofburg, 40; Firenze Fire, 39; and Solomini, 34; as the final four horses currently with spots in the field but not a guaranteed spot at this point.</p><p>In the first five years of the Kentucky Derby points system, the final horse to earn a spot had between 10 and 32 points: 10 (2013), 20 (2014), 22 (2015), 32 (2016), and 30 (2017). This year, it is possible that 42 points might not be enough to join the field.</p><p>After a look at the standings and information provided by Churchill Downs media, in the Arkansas Derby Magnum Moon and Quip already are in the Kentucky Derby field. Solomini (34 points), Combatant (22), and Dream Baby Dream (20) earn a spot with a top-two finish and can be in the mix with a third-place showing. Machismo (5 qualifying points), Beautiful Shot (0), Plainsman (0) and Tenfold (0) will qualify with a win and join the discussion with a runner-up effort. </p><p>Meanwhile, My Boy Jack (32) needs a top-2 finish in the Lexington to vie for a position in the top 19 point earners. A win puts him in; a runner-up finish puts him on the bubble. All other Lexington starters would need defections to join the Kentucky Derby lineup if they win.</p><p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Road to the Kentucky
Derby Top 25<br><font face="Times New Roman" size="3"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">(Horses entered to
run this weekend in bold)<br><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri" size="3">Rank, Horse Points </font></b></font></b></font></font></b></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">1. Good Magic<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">134 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">2. Audible<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">110
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">3. Noble Ind<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">110
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">4. Vino Rosso<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">107</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">5. Bolt d’Oro<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">104
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">6. Enticed<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">103
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">7. Mendelssohn<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></font><font size="3">100 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">8. Justify<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">100
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">9. $-Flameaway<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></font><font size="3">70 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">10. Bravazo<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">54 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">11. Promises Fulfilled<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">52
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">12. Magnum Moon<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">50 </font></font></b></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">13. $-Runaway Ghost<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">50
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">14. Quip<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">50 </font></font></b></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">15. Free Drop Billy<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">44
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">16. Lone Sailor<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">42 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">17. Hofburg<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">40 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">18. Firenze Fire<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">39 </font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">19. Solomini<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">34 </font></font></b></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">20. Gronkowski<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">Euro
bid</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">21. My Boy Jack<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">32 </font></font></b></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">22. Snapper Sinclair<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">22
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">23. Combatant<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">22 </font></font></b></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><font size="3">24. $-Blended Citizen<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">22
</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Calibri"><font size="3">25. Reride<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></font><font size="3">20
</font></font></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><font face="Calibri"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri" size="3">$=Late Triple Crown nominee</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
<font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><font size="3">Notes:</font></b><font size="3"> Gronkowski
is listed at 20 but is in the field through the European Road to the Kentucky
Derby bid. Horses not being considered for the Derby are not included in
rankings</font></font></font></p><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">
&nbsp;</font></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648815" width="1" height="1">pointsThe RoadDerby bubblebubbleLexington StakesArkansas DerbyInternational Runners Could Shape Derby Points Bubblehttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/30/international-runners-could-shape-derby-points-bubble.aspxFri, 30 Mar 2018 19:38:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648799Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648799http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/30/international-runners-could-shape-derby-points-bubble.aspx#comments<p>Because a pair of international races could generate several Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) starters, this weekend's points races will be the most important weekend in determining where this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying points bubble will fall.</p><p>As many as three horses based outside of North America could secure Derby spots this weekend, and a fourth horse, who likely would fall on the bubble, also is a possibility.</p><p>On March 30, Phoenix Thoroughbreds' Gronkowski locked up the European Road to the Kentucky Derby points race and his connections plan to make the trip to Louisville. That locks down one spot for the Kentucky Derby, meaning the main points race will award just 19 spots.</p><p>And those 19 spots could be further reduced depending on what happens Saturday as the Burradon was just the lead-up to the season's most important race in terms of this year's Derby points race: the UAE Derby Sponsored by Saeed &amp; Mohammed Al Naboodah Group (G2). The reason this 170-point race in the desert is bigger than any points race in the United States is that it could bring a number of international runners into the field, which essentially would reduce the number of slots available to U.S.-based runners.</p><p>As always the winner of the UAE Derby will secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby. The UAE Derby winner isn't always sent to Kentucky but many of this year's top contenders in Meydan intend to go forward to Kentucky.</p><p>A wrinkle in the UAE Derby this year is the presence of Japan-based Ruggero, who could earn a trip to Kentucky without winning in Dubai. That's because the connections of Ruggero have first-call in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. (Should they decline that spot, Taiki Ferveur (JPN), who also is running in the UAE Derby, would be next in line.)</p><p>And there's one more possibility, as reported by Bob Kieckhefer: Irish-based super trainer Aidan O'Brien has three horses entered in the UAE Derby--Kentucky-breds Mendelssohn, Seahenge, and Threeandfourpence--and said he could send more than one of them to Louisville.</p><p>So Gronkowski has nailed down the European Road to the Derby slot. Now imagine this scenario at Meydan: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T) winner Mendelssohn wins the UAE Derby, followed closely by a stablemate, and then Ruggero. Under this scenario, if O'Brien opts to send both his horses and the connections of Ruggero use their Japan Road to the Derby points to send him, suddenly three Derby spots are gone to international runners and Seahenge or Threeandfourpence, with 40 points in this scenario, could potentially take a fourth. </p><p>Last year's Derby, which saw just one international starter in Thunder Snow, required 30 points in the Main Road to the Derby to make the field, based on the 20th ranked horse to enter. In 2016, also with one international starter, the cut-off was 32 points. Previous years would be 2015, 22; 2014, 20; 2013, 10.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648799" width="1" height="1">UAE DerbyBurradon StakesGronkowskiRuggeroAidan O'BrienMendelssohnOn Derby Trail, Horsemen Weigh Their Optionshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/25/on-derby-trail-horsemen-weigh-their-options.aspxSun, 25 Mar 2018 21:33:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648789Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648789http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/25/on-derby-trail-horsemen-weigh-their-options.aspx#comments<p>After punching through on the inside and rolling to a 4 1/2-length victory in the Feb. 19 Southwest Stakes (G3) in his first start at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="20">Oaklawn Park</span>, a return trip to the Hot Springs, Ark., track seemed to be in order for <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9854642" horsename="My Boy Jack" horsefoalingyear="2015">My Boy Jack</span>.</p><p>But before owners Don't Tell My Wife Stables (Kirk Godby) and Monomoy Stables (Sol Kumin) and trainer Keith Desormeaux committed to a return trip to Oaklawn for the $900,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) March 17, they glanced at the race conditions and noticed they would not be favorable relative to other available options.</p><p>Like many stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, the Rebel is not an equal-weights event. The&nbsp;assigned weight for the race&nbsp;is 122 pounds, but non-winners of $60,000 at one mile or longer in 2018 are allowed three pounds; non-winners&nbsp;of $50,000 at a mile or longer anytime are allowed five pounds; and non-winners of $35,000 at any distance (not counting maiden or claiming) are allowed seven pounds.</p><p>With the $300,000 My Boy Jack had just earned in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest, he would have been assigned 122 pounds in a field where Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9945169" horsename="Solomini" horsefoalingyear="2015">Solomini</span> was given 115, as was the eventual winner, lightly raced <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9912309" horsename="Magnum Moon" horsefoalingyear="2015">Magnum Moon</span>.&nbsp;</p><p>Seeing that they would be spotting some nice horses up to seven pounds, My Boy Jack's connections&nbsp;opted for the March 24 TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="12">Fair Grounds Race Course &amp; Slots, where he would finish third</span>.&nbsp;Desormeaux said returning to Oaklawn, where their horse enjoyed success, was weighed against the weight disadvantage.</p><p>"As soon as he crossed the wire in Arkansas, we started thinking about our next move," Desormeaux said. "When you win over a track, it makes sense to run right back there, but Sol Kumin brought up a good point. The Rebel is not an equal-weights race, so off a graded stakes win, we would be at an immediate disadvantage. The Louisiana Derby is equal weights, and there are twice as many points offered."</p><p>The Rebel offered Derby qualifying points of 50-20-10-5 while the Louisiana Derby is the first 100-40-20-10 points race of the season. In the Louisiana Derby all starters carried 122 pounds; there were no&nbsp;allowances based on prior performance.</p><p>Most of the 170-point qualifying races in the U.S. this year will be contested at equal weights for males with the Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) at 122 pounds, the Wood Memorial presented by NYRA Bets (G1) at 123, and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) at 124. One exception will be the Arkansas Derby (G1), which assigns males a weight of 122 pounds&nbsp;but allows four pounds to non-stakes winners.</p><p>That's not the case for most of the 85-point races. While the 85-point Sunland Derby (G3) assigns equal weight for males at 122 pounds, more typical are the conditions seen in the aforementioned Rebel; the Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), which saw a range of 116-122 pounds; and the Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), which saw a range of 116-120.</p><p>In the Risen Star, <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9854409" horsename="Bravazo" horsefoalingyear="2015">Bravazo</span>—carrying 117 pounds—edged 120-pound highweight <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9887407" horsename="Snapper Sinclair" horsefoalingyear="2015">Snapper Sinclair</span> by a nose. Those two are now separated by 32 points and 12 leaderboard spots on the Derby points list used to determine the Louisville classic's field.</p><p>Males entered in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) are assigned 126 pounds.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648789" width="1" height="1">Kentucky DerbyweightLouisiana DerbyDerby PrepsRebel StakesMy Boy JackAutomatic Bids, Qualifying Points Provide Clarity for Fanshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/12/automatic-bids-qualifying-points-provide-clarity-for-new-fans.aspxMon, 12 Mar 2018 21:01:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648773Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648773http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/12/automatic-bids-qualifying-points-provide-clarity-for-new-fans.aspx#comments<p>As last-second shots fly, setting off celebrations or disappointment during this weekend's men's college basketball tournament, every fan understands what's on the line: a trip to the NCAA Tournament.</p><p>In recent years, horse racing's biggest events have done a decent job of providing similar clarity for fans through such tools as the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system, used to determine which horses will fill the&nbsp;starting gate; and the Breeders' Cup Challenge, a series of races that corresponds to World Championship races.</p><p>I have to admit that when Breeders' Cup first launched the Challenge series in 2007, I didn't see the point of, say, giving the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner an automatic bid to the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). My thought was, "The Jockey Club Gold Cup winner <i>always </i>has a spot in the Classic."</p><p>As I realized&nbsp;the Challenge series provided&nbsp;clarity for new fans in a sport that most assuredly can lack definition, I understood the incentive better. Fans tuning in to the Jockey Club Gold Cup could see that these older horses trying a route of ground are the types of horses that will try the Classic. When those fans tuned in to the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (G1), they could see that those fillies and mares could soon be starting in the Distaff (G1).</p><p>When <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="10">Churchill Downs</span> shifted to a points system for determining the Derby field, as opposed to graded stakes earnings, it did have an impact (previously covered in this column), but most of the top horses making the field would have been the same under either system. A significant advantage to the points system is that it's easier for fans to understand.</p><p>Given the&nbsp;success, I'd like to see other major races add similar systems. I like the automatic berth to the Preakness Stakes (G1) Maryland Jockey Club has added for the winner of the local Federico Tesio Stakes and would like to see the second leg of the Triple Crown&nbsp;add races like the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="1">Keeneland</span> and the Illinois Derby (G3) at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="62">Hawthorne Race Course</span>, if the latter is continued as an annual event.</p><p>The Belmont Stakes (G1) could add automatic bids for winners of races like the local Peter Pan Stakes (G3) and Maryland's Barbaro Stakes.</p><p>Longtime fans understand the automatic bids I'm suggesting are for races that regularly supply starters to the final two classics. But as a guide for new fans, such additional bids would better define the award that's on the line for that stretch rally to victory, making that late move as exciting as a buzzer-beater to land an NCAA Tournament slot.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648773" width="1" height="1">automatic bidsqualifying pointsDerby Points Can Make or Break a Stakes (or Steaks)http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/05/derby-points-can-make-or-break-a-stakes-or-steaks.aspxMon, 05 Mar 2018 17:45:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648764Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648764http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/03/05/derby-points-can-make-or-break-a-stakes-or-steaks.aspx#comments<p>Welcome to March, when the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) field begins to take shape thanks to increased prep race qualifying points that essentially ensure winners of races like the Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth (G2), San Felipe (G2), and Rebel (G2) stakes a spot in the Derby gate.</p><p>This year,&nbsp;<span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="27">Turfway Park</span>'s top Derby prep, the Spiral Stakes—in 2018 it's the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)—falls out of the above category as its qualifying points were reduced from 50-20-10-4 for the top four finishers&nbsp;to 20-8-4-2. Without any other qualifying points, this year's winner will figure to be on the Derby bubble.</p><p>In constructing this year's Road to the Kentucky Derby points races, it's clear Churchill Downs officials followed Janet Jackson's lead and asked, "What have you done for me lately?" Since <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-8331153" horsename="Animal Kingdom" horsefoalingyear="2008">Animal Kingdom</span> won the Spiral and Kentucky Derby in 2011, the Spiral winner has followed with a Derby fourth-place finish, two non-starters, and three off-the-board finishes.</p><p>I was disappointed to see the Spiral downgraded in points. The race offered a chance for turf 3-year-olds to try Turfway's synthetic surface, a switch not as dramatic as a move to dirt. The race served exactly that role for Animal Kingdom.</p><p>Oddly enough, while Turfway's Derby prep on a synthetic surface has lost some stature in terms of Derby points, Churchill added a European Road to the Derby this year that prominently features synthetic track races this month in Ireland and England. The points reduction for the&nbsp;Jeff Ruby Steaks figures to negatively impact the race this year and going forward.&nbsp;</p><p>The Derby points system certainly has impacted races. When Churchill used graded stakes earnings to determine the field from 1986-2012, Gulfstream's Hutcheson Stakes (G3) saw 18 of its starters also compete in the Derby from 1986-2008. Since the Derby points system began in 2013—leaving out sprint races—just one Hutcheson starter has entered the Derby starting gate.</p><p>Without Derby points, the Hutcheson slid&nbsp;from grade 2 to grade 3 in 2014. Purse reductions in 2015 and 2016 saw the race go from $200,000 to $100,000. The race wasn't contested in 2017&nbsp;and this year will be offered March 24.</p><p>Consider the Illinois Derby (G3), which from 1986-2012 produced 18 Derby starters, including 2002 winner War Emblem. Since 2012, the Illinois Derby hasn't had a Derby starter. The Illinois Derby purse has fallen from $750,000 in 2013 to $250,000 last year. It was not run in 2016 and is not scheduled in 2018.</p><p>From 1986-2011, Keeneland's Lexington Stakes (G3) saw 36 starters show up in the Derby, including 1999 winner Charismatic as well as seven others who placed. Since being offered as a low-level points race, the Lexington hasn't seen a single Derby starter. It will see its points increased from 10-4-2-1 last year to 20-8-4-2 this year.</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648764" width="1" height="1">Churchill DownsKentucky DerbyRoad to the Kentucky DerbySpiral StakespointsJeff Ruby SteaksHutchesonLexingtonIllinois DerbySome Seemingly Simple Requests From Horseplayershttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/01/19/some-seemingly-simple-requests-from-horseplayers.aspxFri, 19 Jan 2018 23:03:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648713Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648713http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/01/19/some-seemingly-simple-requests-from-horseplayers.aspx#comments<p>In a refreshing move, Kentucky Horse Racing Commission vice chairman John Roach listed a number of horseplayer concerns at a Jan. 16 rules committee meeting.</p><p>Roach, who serves on the rules committee, wasn't to the point of taking a position on the issues forwarded to the KHRC by professional horseplayer Mike Maloney, but Roach wanted to get the committee thinking about the issues. Maloney talked with several horseplayers before forwarding the ideas to the KHRC.</p><p>The first issue Roach relayed included a request to require Kentucky tracks, and tracks that offer simulcast signals in Kentucky, to provide the odds of each horse while they are being loaded into the gate, at the start, and throughout the race. Maloney and other horseplayers have had concerns about late odds shifts, and the possibility of past posting, for some time.</p><p>Racetracks have attributed these in-race odds shifts to wagers--typically from computer-robotic wagering--flooding the pools in the final moments before the gates open. Rather than document these shifts in odds during their race presentations, some tracks have taken the approach of South Park's Officer Barbrady--nothing to see here--and simply stopped showing odds information through the loading process, at the start, and throughout the race. </p><p>Maloney said tracks were sometimes being embarrassed by odds changing on the chiclets halfway through a race, so now they don't put the odds on the chiclets until the race is final or well into the race.</p><p>A second request was to have track simulcast feeds replay a full pan view and head-on view of each race. Maloney noted that sometimes if a post-race ceremony or inquiry goes long, sometimes tracks will drop the head-on replay from their simulcast presentation. He added with a chuckle that they always seem to have time for their ads.</p><p>Horseplayers also called for changes in the reporting of first-time geldings. Maloney acknowledged that improvements have been made in the reporting of first-time geldings, but said racing should move to reporting the actual date of the change. He said currently the listed date is when the change was reported. </p><p>And finally the horseplayers called on Kentucky to become a national&nbsp;leader in accurate reporting of workout times.</p><p>Maloney said changes like these can help Kentucky attract horseplayers. He doesn't favor micro-managing, but said regulators need to ensure a fair and transparent game for horseplayers and believes that improvements in these areas will benefit the game overall.</p><p>"The commissioners are the long-term guardians of Kentucky racing," Maloney said. "There are certain things like showing the replays, making the odds as transparent as possible; certain things that licensees need to be required to do for the sake of the customers.</p><p>"If we can brand Kentucky racing as a leader in the integrity area and the accurate data area, we help strengthen Kentucky racing. That will help horsemen, the customers, the racetracks, and we generate more revenue for the state." </p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648713" width="1" height="1">Mike MaloneyKentucky Horse Racing CommissionKHRCJohn RoachGun Runner's Woodward Top Equibase Speed Figure of 2017http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/01/03/gun-runner-s-woodward-top-equibase-speed-figure-of-2017.aspxWed, 03 Jan 2018 16:00:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648690Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648690http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2018/01/03/gun-runner-s-woodward-top-equibase-speed-figure-of-2017.aspx#comments<p>A look at Gun Runner's Equibase Speed Figures for 2017 adds a bit more evidence of the consistently brilliant season enjoyed by the son of Candy Ride.</p><p>In winning five of six starts, including four straight grade 1 wins to close out the season, Winchell Thoroughbreds and Three Chimneys Farm's runner not only registered the top ESF of the season with his 131 in the Woodward Stakes presented by NYRA Bets (G1), he also earned a 129 in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).</p><p>Those two races were the final seasonal starts of Gun Runner. Completing the 1 1/8-mile Woodward in 1:47.43 on a fast track at Saratoga Race Course, he scored by 10 1/4 lengths over runner-up Rally Cry. He then accomplished a front-end victory in the Classic, completing that 1 1/4-mile test at Del Mar in 2:01.29 on a fast track to secure a 2 1/4-length victory over $1 million TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) winner Collected and earn a 129 ESF.</p><p>In his final four starts of 2017, which also included clear victories in the Whitney Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs, Gun Runner earned a 121 or better.</p><p>The top ESF earned by a 3-year-old in 2017 was registered by Battle of Midway when he rallied from fifth to score a half-length victory in the Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) at Del Mar. The 130 tied for the season's second-best ESF with Bullards Alley, who earned a 130 in his Pattison Canadian International Stakes (G1T) upset win at Woodbine. That effort was the top ESF earned by any horse in a turf race in 2017</p><p>Three horses earned ESFs of 129 in 2017. Gun Runner's Classic was joined by the runaway victory by Mor Spirit in the Mohegan Sun Metropolitan Handicap (G1) at Belmont Park and the runner-up finish by Sharp Azteca in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Sharp Azteca also earned a 127 with his Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets (G1) victory to close out his 4-year-old season.</p><p>Other top ESFs this season include the 128 earned by Accelerate in his front-running TVG San Diego Handicap (G2) victory and the 127 posted by Roy H in his True North Stakes (G2) win at Belmont. Roy H closed the season with a win in the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), earning a 126.</p><p>The top ESF earned in a non-stakes race was posted by Good Bye Greg, who was awarded a 127 for his allowance-optional claiming race victory Aug. 12 at Arlington International Racecourse. That effort was the top figure earned in a race on a synthetic surface this season.</p><p>As for the past seven days, the top figure was earned by Sweet Home Stables and Mark Parkinson's Royal Son at 122. The son of Tiznow registered an easy victory in the Prairie Bayou Stakes Dec. 29 at Turfway Park. </p><h2>Top 10 Equibase Speed Figures Since Jan. 1</h2><table class="equibase-table equibase-table-speed-figures cke_show_border"><thead><tr><th>ESF</th><th>Horse<br>Race, Track, Distance, Date</th><th>Finish</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>131</td><td>Gun Runner<br>Woodward S. Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), SAR, 9f, 9/2</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>130</td><td>Battle of Midway<br>Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), DMR, 8f, 11/3</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>130</td><td>Bullards Alley<br>Pattison Canadian International S. (G1T), WO, 12fT, 10/15</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>129</td><td>Gun Runner<br>Breeders' Cup Classic (G1), DMR, 10f, 11/4</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>129</td><td>Mor Spirit<br>Mohegan Sun Metropolitan H. (G1), BEL, 8f, 6/10</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>129</td><td>Sharp Azteca<br>Las Vegas Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), DMR, 8f, 11/3</td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>128</td><td>Accelerate<br>TVG San Diego H. (G2), DMR, 8.5f, 7/22</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>127</td><td>Good Bye Greg<br>AOC, AP, 6f, 8/12</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>127</td><td>Roy H<br>True North S. (G2), BEL, 6f, 6/9</td><td>1</td></tr><tr><td>127</td><td>Sharp Azteca<br>Cigar Mile H. Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), AQU, 8f, 12/2</td><td>1</td></tr></tbody></table><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648690" width="1" height="1">Gun RunnerEquibase Speed FigureBreeders' Cup Betting Challenge Sports Big Moneyhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/11/03/breeders-cup-betting-challenge-sports-big-money.aspxFri, 03 Nov 2017 19:34:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648647Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648647http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/11/03/breeders-cup-betting-challenge-sports-big-money.aspx#comments<p>Just as the big purses of the Breeders' Cup World Championships catch the attention of the owners of top horses, the big money available in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge attracts interest from top horseplayers.</p><p>This year's total prizes are expected to exceed $1 million with a first-place prize of $300,000. While entries continue to be accepted, contest director Tim Schram said they've already received more than last year's record 396 entries.</p><p>"Being able to offer $1 million certainly catches people's attention," Schram said.</p><p>Those players will be competing on-site at Del Mar, accounting for about 70% of entries, with another 25% of entries playing at advance-deposit wagering sites TwinSpires.com and XpressBet.com, and 5% at Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park. </p><p>Schram said about half of this year's players will pay the $10,000 buy-in, while 25% qualified through on-track contests and 25% through online contests. Of that buy-in, $2,500 is committed to contest payouts and the other $7,500 is used in the live-money contest. Breeders' Cup does not take out any of the money committed to the contest.</p><p>On-site competitors will enjoy prime seating with a view of the paddock as well as a view of the stretch. </p><p>"A lot of these players would have wagered $10,000 or more on Breeders' Cup anyway, so they figure they might as well come out and enter the contest as well," said Schram, who noted that last year's contest players accounted for 17% of the on-track handle at Santa Anita Park.</p><p>Beyond this year's million-dollar purse, a number of players are eligible for lucrative bonuses, including January's National Horseplayers Championship winner Ray Arsenault who is eligible for the $3 million NHC Tour Bonus. Such a bonus would be the largest cash prize ever awarded in a handicapping contest, and it would be added to the expected $300,000 first prize.</p><p>"It's pretty thrilling," Arsenault said. "I'm going to take some pops at it. I've been looking at the races and I'm going to get back to studying here in a bit." </p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648647" width="1" height="1">Breeders' Cup Betting ChallengeBCBCTop Horseplayer Applauds ‘Overdue’ Tax Changeshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/30/top-horseplayer-applauds-overdue-tax-changes.aspxMon, 30 Oct 2017 13:30:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648634Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648634http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/30/top-horseplayer-applauds-overdue-tax-changes.aspx#comments<p>A few days after new standards for tax reporting and withholding of big wins in pari-mutuel wagering were put in place Sept. 28, professional horseplayer Mike Maloney hit a Pick 6 that returned $46,000.</p><p>Even though he was well aware of the new standards—he's been pushing for the changes for 15 years—he recalls an&nbsp;odd feeling when the ticket was processed.</p><p>"It felt so weird, because it paid over $46,000 and it went right through the machine and paid all the money,"&nbsp;Maloney said. "It was different."</p><p>In late September the U.S. Treasury and IRS put the new rules in place that&nbsp;redefine how 300-1 odds are determined, now basing them on the entire cost of a pari-mutuel ticket into a wagering pool. The changes have greatly reduced the instances of both reporting—necessary on payouts above $600 at odds of at least 300-1—and withholding—needed on payouts above $5,000 at odds of at least 300-1.</p><p>For instance, in previous instances where Maloney hit a Pick 6, the 300-1 odds would have been based on the cost of each wager on a ticket, say 500 $2 wagers. But as his tickets routinely include hundreds of combinations, the total cost of the ticket is much more than $2—500 combinations would cost $1,000. In that case, the 300-1 threshold would require a return north of $300,000.</p><p>The previous withholding standard would have seen 31% of Maloney's $46,000 payout immediately withheld, $14,260. For a player like Maloney, who wagers for a living, this would result in large sums of money being tied up.</p><p>"In all of the years I've been a professional horseplayer, I've had to keep a line of credit on my house that I've had to access most every year because so much money would be withheld throughout the year that I couldn't stay in business, I couldn't keep churning the money unless I brought in outside money to keep me going,"&nbsp;Maloney said. "That was the way I did it for years and years. It was kind of uncomfortable and it was a big ask of my wife to go along with that."</p><p>While Maloney is thrilled to see the changes, he also is frustrated at how long it took to make them&nbsp;reality. He recalls telling a racing executive about the problem in 2002, who told him he was wrong. He recalls discussing the issue on a panel in 2004 that saw now retired <i>Daily Racing Form</i> publisher Steven Crist outline the problem in a column that helped get that ball rolling.</p><p>Maloney thought that ball would quickly crush the outdated standards.</p><p>"It was so long overdue," Maloney said. "It was a big dropping of the ball to let that go on all of those years. It kind of illustrates to me the difference between casino leadership and management and racing leadership and management. When we try to go head to head, it seems like the casinos are almost always one step ahead of us. They understand their customers better; they understand the regulatory landscape better; They're just sharper from a lot of perspectives than we are."</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648634" width="1" height="1">tax reportingtax witholdingMike MaloneyKentucky Downs Horses Shine at Keenelandhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/20/kentucky-downs-horses-shine-at-keeneland.aspxFri, 20 Oct 2017 14:43:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648626Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648626http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/20/kentucky-downs-horses-shine-at-keeneland.aspx#comments<p><i>This is a recent Dollars and Sense column, which appears weekly in BloodHorse Daily, typically Friday.</i></p><p>The success enjoyed on opening weekend at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="1">Keeneland</span> by horses who made their previous start at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="68">Kentucky Downs</span> serves as the latest example of the improving quality of horses competing at the lucrative September meet in Franklin, Ky.</p><p>Horses who made their previous start at Kentucky Downs won 10 of the 30 races Oct. 6-8 at Keeneland, a fall meet&nbsp;opening weekend that draws horses from throughout the world.&nbsp;</p><p>Leading the way were a pair of grade 1 victories by Debby Oxley homebred <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9877980" horsename="Heavenly Love" horsefoalingyear="2015">Heavenly Love</span> in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes and Empyrean Stables' <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9284033" horsename="Zipessa" horsefoalingyear="2012">Zipessa</span> in the First Lady Stakes. Heavnely Love entered the Alcibiades off a five-length victory in a $130,000 maiden race Sept. 7 at Kentucky Downs and Zipessa entered off a close runner-up finish to <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9428386" horsename="Miss Temple City" horsefoalingyear="2012">Miss Temple City</span> in the $350,000 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Stakes (G3T) Sept. 9.</p><p>Runners who made their previous start at Kentucky Downs, which only offers turf racing, won four of the six turf races offered on Keeneland's opening weekend. They swept the three turf races offered on opening day and accounted for seven of the nine placings in those races. But Kentucky Downs runners also fared well on dirt at Keeneland, as they secured six wins on the main track</p><p>"To have 10 of 30 winners and two grade 1 winners, that's not something that has ever happened," said Kentucky Downs president Corey Johnsen. "It just illustrated the quality of racing and depth at our meet. I could tell that there was real depth in the quality of our fields this year. We had some really, really good horses run at our place."&nbsp;</p><p>Kentucky Downs Horses to Win at Keeneland
(through Oct. 8)</p><p>Date (race) Horse Race level, surface Trainer
</p><p>Oct. 6 (5) Magical Sky Maiden, turf Mark Casse
</p><p>Oct. 6 (7) War Bond Allowance, turf Mike Maker
</p><p>Oct. 6 (9) Heavenly Love Grade 1 stakes, dirt Mark Casse
</p><p>Oct. 6 (10) St. Louie Allowance, turf Mike Maker
</p><p>Oct. 7 (1) Our Girl Abby Maiden, dirt Mike Maker
</p><p>Oct. 7 (7) Zipessa Grade 1 stakes, turf Michael Stidham
</p><p>Oct. 8 (1) Northern Screamer Claiming, dirt Mike Maker
</p><p>Oct. 8 (4) One Dollar Maiden claiming, dirt Paul McGee
</p><p>Oct. 8 (6) Grand Candy Allowance optional claiming, dirt Mike Maker
</p><p>Oct. 8 (10) Iconic Maiden, dirt Dale Romans</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648626" width="1" height="1">KeenelandKentucky DownsMalibu Moon Up to This Year's Challengehttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/20/malibu-moon-up-to-this-year-s-challenge.aspxFri, 20 Oct 2017 14:38:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648625Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648625http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/10/20/malibu-moon-up-to-this-year-s-challenge.aspx#comments<p><i>The Challenge, sponsored by Darby Dan Farm appears each week through Breeders' Cup, typically Saturday, in BloodHorse Daily.</i></p><p>Of active, United States-based stallions, <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-4300692" horsefoalingyear="1997" horsename="Malibu Moon">Malibu Moon</span> leads the group of&nbsp;2017 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners.</p><p>A look at this year's Challenge, which concluded Oct. 11, shows Malibu Moon was the only active U.S. stallion with three individual Challenge winners in:&nbsp;<span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9287245" horsefoalingyear="2012" horsename="Ransom the Moon">Ransom the Moon</span>, <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9864624" horsefoalingyear="2015" horsename="Moonshine Memories">Moonshine Memories</span>, and <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9877980" horsefoalingyear="2015" horsename="Heavenly Love">Heavenly Love</span>.&nbsp;</p><p>The first of the trio to punch his Breeders' Cup ticket was Ransom the Moon, who scored a clear victory in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) July 29 at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="11">Del Mar</span>. That win earned Agave Racing Stable and Jeffry Wilke's Ransom the Moon a fees-paid spot in the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1), which like the Bing Crosby, will be contested at six furlongs at Del Mar.</p><p>The other two Malibu Moon Challenge winners earned starting spots in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) as Moonshine Memories, campaigned by Bridlewood Farm and owners associated with Coolmore, won the Chandelier Stakes (G1) Sept. 30 at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="23">Santa Anita Park</span> and Debby Oxley homebred Heavenly Love won the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (G1) Oct. 6 at <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="1">Keeneland</span>.</p><p>The late stallion Scat Daddy also had&nbsp;three 2017 Challenge winners: <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9697247" horsefoalingyear="2014" horsename="Caravaggio">Caravaggio</span>, who won the Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes (G2) for a berth in the Turf Sprint (G1T);&nbsp;<span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9640243" horsefoalingyear="2011" horsename="Dacita (CHI)">Dacita</span>, who took the Beverly D. Stakes (G1T) for an entry into the Filly &amp; Mare Turf (G1T);&nbsp;and <span class="bloodhorse-horse" id="horse-9875663" horsefoalingyear="2015" horsename="Flameaway">Flameaway</span>, who won the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes (G3T) earning a place in the Juvenile Turf (G1T).</p><p>Leading all stallions (worldwide) this season in Challenge winners with five is Galileo who is represented by&nbsp;Ulysses, Hydrangea, Decorated Knight, Happily, and Rhododendron.</p><p><b>U.S.-based Stallions (living or deceased) with&nbsp;<br>multiple 2017 Breeders' Cup Challenge winners<br></b><b>Malibu Moon:</b> Ransom the Moon, Moonshine Memories, and Heavenly Love<br><b>Scat Daddy (deceased): </b>Caravaggio, Dacita, Flameaway<br><b>Candy Ride:</b> Gun Runner, Separationofpowers<br><b>City Zip:</b> Collected, Zipessa<br><b>Curlin:</b> Curlin's Approval, Stellar Wind<br><b>Kitten's Joy:</b> Roaring Lion and Sadler's Joy<br><b>Lemon Drop Kid:</b> Beach Patrol, Romantic Vision<br><b>Medaglia d'Oro:</b> Bolt d'Oro, Songbird<br><b>More Than Ready: </b>Roy H, Rushing Fall<br><b>Union Rags:</b> Free Drop Billy, Paradise Woods<br><b>War Front:</b> Avenge, War Flag&nbsp;</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648625" width="1" height="1">Breeders' Cup ChallengeBreeders' CupsMalibu MoonKentucky Downs Believes in Pari-Mutuel Gaminghttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/09/05/kentucky-downs-believes-in-pari-mutuel-gaming.aspxTue, 05 Sep 2017 19:56:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648584Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648584http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/09/05/kentucky-downs-believes-in-pari-mutuel-gaming.aspx#comments
<p>As money
from added gaming has flowed into the industry, providing a boost for purses,
most racetracks have missed a golden opportunity to fully take advantage of the
stability provided by that added revenue by trying new approaches-namely
lowering prices--with their pari-mutuel product.</p><p>With
that
new revenue from added gaming providing tracks some money and improving
purses, one would have expected such&nbsp;tracks would have used the
opportunity to try some new approaches to strengthen
their core product, pari-mutuel wagering. Specifically, it seemed like
an
opportunity to lower takeout (the money retained from each wagering pool
largely to pay tracks and purses) to make it more competitive with other
wagering forms. </p><p>Instead, as
new low-takeout gaming like slot machines was welcomed at tracks, the vast
majority of those tracks did not address the relatively high takeout
pari-mutuel model in place.</p><p>In the short
term this approach has allowed tracks to offer larger purses as money from
added gaming was added to pari-mutuel revenues already in place. But by not
strengthening the pari-mutuel product in an effort to attract new players,
pari-mutuel wagering remains, at best, stagnated. With the stagnation of
racing's core product, the sport has reduced race days. Tracks without added
gaming have closed or struggled.</p><p>From
2002-2004, pari-mutuel handle on Thoroughbred racing in the United States
topped $15 billion each of those years. But from 2011-2016, racing failed to reach
$11 billion in any of those single years. With no real growth in racing's
economic engine, racing opportunities have declined. The 37,814 races offered
in the U.S. in 2016 is down 27% in 10 years and about half the number offered in
1989. Foal crops have declined to the size of the mid-1960s.</p><p>While added
money from gaming has offered some stability in purses, and has helped
tracks that have added-gaming money attract horses from tracks without added-gaming,
the industry overall has not seen added interest in the sport's economic
engine, pari-mutuel wagering <br></p><p>Without
added interest in pari-mutuel wagering, the sport's current model has made
racing more and more dependent on supplements from added gaming, which now fund
about 40% of the purses awarded in the United States. It's a precarious model. That added gaming money to
the industry will always be something closely eyed by lawmakers, who could
easily reduce or shut down the pipeline. </p><p>One
track
that thought more long-term when added money from its Instant Racing
operation
began to flow into purses is Kentucky Downs, which is scheduled to open
its five-day meet Sept. 6. It actually lowered takeout when this added
money arrived. </p><p>The added
money from Instant Racing still inflated purses, helping attract huge fields, which
are attractive to bettors. The track's added step of lowering takeout when it
received that added money has fueled interest from horseplayers in the meet and
increased churn (winnings bet back into pari-mutuel pools). Wagering records
have followed.</p><p>A
record $22,540,761.22 was bet on last year's five-date meet for an average of
$4,508,152 a day. That reflected a 34% increase over the previous record total
set the previous year.</p><p>Kentucky
Downs' takeout rates of 14% on the Pick 5 and 16% on win, place, and show
wagers are among the lowest in the country. No Thoroughbred track is lower than
Kentucky Downs' 18.25% takeout on exactas and 19% takeout on trifecta wagers.</p><p>
"Kentucky
Downs has been able to go from completely off the national radar to a premier
track by going against the norm of the industry, right now, which is to get a
higher percentage from less handle," said professional horseplayer Paul Matties
Jr.,&nbsp;who captured the 2016 National Handicapping Championship, in a release. "We need
the exact opposite for the benefit of the game. We need to grow handle and
spawn interest, and Kentucky Downs has been a leader on that front. It's not a
surprise to me horseplayers have responded and their handle has skyrocketed.
Horseplayers are smart and they will gravitate to the best products and the
best value for the betting dollar, and I expect that will continue this year."</p><p>Increasing
takeout rates and leaving high rates in place eventually will drive players
from the game or force them to reduce play, whether a conscious decision or
just the fact that there are a few less dollars coming their way when they win.
These high rates also make it difficult to attract new players, who may be used
to lower takeout games that match gambling and skill, like poker and Daily
Fantasy.</p><p>Takeout
rates for horse racing will always be higher than casino games, as there is a
whole sport to fund. Most horseplayers understand that, and are willing to pay
a higher price because they love the puzzle of handicapping and the excitement
of watching horses race as opposed to the tedium of pushing a slot machine
button. But it's not an unconditional love. </p><p><font size="3" face="Times New Roman">
</font></p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648584" width="1" height="1">takeoutwageringKentucky DownsPaul Mattiesadded-moneyCalifornia Takeout Increase Falls Shorthttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/08/30/california-takeout-increase-falls-short.aspxWed, 30 Aug 2017 23:43:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648579Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648579http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/08/30/california-takeout-increase-falls-short.aspx#comments<p>Since California lawmakers approved a
takeout hike effective for the 2011 racing season, the price increase on
horseplayers has failed to deliver projected purse increases and has been
followed by reduced handle and race days.</p><p>After an initial small bump in purses
that fell well short of predicted increases, purses have declined the past two
years in California as the 2016 total is down 5.75% from 2014 total purses.
(For comparison's sake, these purse totals do not include Breeders' Cup purses
in years the event has been conducted in California.) </p><p>A
look at California's experience is&nbsp;topical as Keeneland plans to
increase its takeout&nbsp;beginning with its October meet in a move it hopes
will&nbsp;improve its purses. But
does increasing takeout&nbsp;improve purses long-term? A look at
California's experience in recent years suggests its similar price
increases came up short of initial projections and the purse increases
that initially did occur, have given way to decreases.</p><p>Declining California Thoroughbred
racing purses most assuredly deserved attention in 2010 because for a second
straight year they saw double-digit percentage declines. Total purses checked
in at just $132.5 million in 2010, which was down 26% from 2007. Unlike some of
the states it's competing with, California's racetracks do not have access to
revenue from gaming for purses.</p><p>Lawmakers addressed the declining
purses by increasing takeout on wagers involving two betting interests (such as
an exacta or double) from 20.68% to 22.68%. Takeout wagers involving three or
more wagering interests (trifecta, superfecta, pick three, pick four) were
increased from 20.68% to 23.68%. </p><p>All
of the money from the increased takeout
would be committed to purses. But such moves do not account for the
impact on the gambling product as players react to the increased prices.
Some chose to boycott or reduce play. Even players not aware of the
increased pricing, will see their winnings reduced and will not have as
much money to churn back into pools. </p><p>Beyond
that, these increases have come at a time that lower-takeout gaming has
proliferated, making pari-mutuel gambling less competitive against
ventures that include not only slot machines, but gambling similar to
pari-mutuel gaming in Daily Fantasy sports, poker, and sports gambling.</p><p>Horse
racing needs enough money from takeout to&nbsp;deliver the sport, but it has
to balance that with the impact of increased pricing on&nbsp;its gambling
product.</p>
<p>As for California's experience,&nbsp;a state Assembly analysis at the time
takeout was increased estimated the increased rake would generate an additional $70 million in purses
for 2011. Keith Brackpool, the California Horse Racing Board chairman at the time,
was more conservative, saying the increase would generate an additional $30
million. </p>
<p>The additional purse money would fall
well short of both estimates. The high-water mark to date being the $146.3
million paid in 2014, which was up less than $14 million from 2010 and failed
to match the $148.9 million in purses of 2009.</p>
<p>Facing higher prices, customers
initially boycotted. Price increases also reduce churn-money won by
horseplayers that they then bet back into racing. Those factors saw handle fall
9.8% in the first year of the increased rake. Handle has never bounced back;
the 2016 handle on California Thoroughbred races is down 11.3% compared with
2010 (Breeders' Cup handle is not counted). That rate is more than twice the
handle decline U.S. racing has seen in those years, down 5.2%. </p>
<p>California offered 3,792 races in 2016;
that number is down 13.8% since 2010. Overall during that stretch, the number
of U.S. races has declined 18.8%.</p>
<p>Besides declining handle, another
reason the price increase has not generated the projected handle is racing's
business model has changed with the continued emergence of advance-deposit
wagering.</p>
<p>Because a higher portion of the handle
is being pushed through ADWs, more wagers are subject to ADW fees. The
percentage of money committed to purses from total handle on California racing,
all breeds, has declined from 5.14% in fiscal year 2012-the first full fiscal
year after the takeout increase-to 4.88% in FY2016.</p>
<p>In
FY2011, ADW handle through the
licensed California ADW companies accounted for 21.1% of wagering on
state
tracks. That percentage ballooned to 30.4% in FY2016. As ADW expands,
unless the model changes, that expansion will only further reduce the
amount of money committed to tracks and purses.</p>
<p><b>Handle on California Thoroughbred races</b></p>
<p><b>Year&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Handle&nbsp; Percentage Change</b></p>
<p>2016&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $1,942,004,596&nbsp; -4.2%</p>
<p>2015&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $2,027,399,114 1.5%</p>
<p>2014&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $1,997,791,306 -3%</p>
<p>2013&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $2,060,451,855&nbsp; 5.1%</p>
<p>2012&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $1,960,739,706
-0.1%</p>
<p>2011&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $1,975,062,441&nbsp; -9.8%</p>
<p>2010&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $2,190,160,458&nbsp; -14.3%</p>
<p>2009&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $2,555,428,576&nbsp; -17.4%</p>
<p>2008&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $3,095,038,694&nbsp; -7.3%</p>
<p>2007&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; $3,339,954,260&nbsp; </p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><b>California Purses<br></b><b>Year&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Purses&nbsp;&nbsp; Percentage
change<br></b>2016&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 137,914,213&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4.4%<br>2015&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 144,285,157&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -1.4%<br>2014&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 146,337,195&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +1%<br>2013&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 144,843,718&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; --<br>2012&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 145,039,513&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +3.2%<br>2011&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 140,521,016&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; +6%<br>2010&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 132,541,382&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -11%<br>2009&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 148,932,359&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -13.3%<br>2008&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 171,903,569&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; -4.1%<br>2007&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 179,231,621&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; --<br><b>Notes:</b> For easier
comparison year to year, these charts do not include Breeders' Cup handle or purses
in years event was conducted in California. Handle figures provided by CHRIMS; purse information provided by The Jockey Club.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
<img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648579" width="1" height="1">KeenelandtakeoutCaliforniapursespari-mutuelHistorical Gains in Kentuckyhttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/07/25/historical-gains-in-kentucky.aspxTue, 25 Jul 2017 13:07:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648544Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648544http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/07/25/historical-gains-in-kentucky.aspx#comments<p>Kentucky purses continue to benefit from the success of historical racing, which registered another strong year.</p><p>The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission this week released final fiscal year 2017 handle reports for the gaming, which continues to thrive as gross commission improved 41% to more than $71.61 million. That increased handle for the machines generated more than $5.87 million for the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund, which benefits purses. That number was up 38.8% compared with fiscal year 2016.</p><p>Besides generating the KTDF money, historical racing also generates purse money for the tracks that offer it: <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="68">Kentucky Downs</span>, <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="47">Ellis Park</span>, and a joint venture of <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="1">Keeneland</span> and Standardbred track The Red Mile. When that estimated purse money&nbsp;is included, historical racing in fiscal year 2017 has generated nearly $14 million for Kentucky purses.</p><p>The $13.96 million generated in fiscal year 2017 is up nearly 40% from fiscal year 2016. (The KHRC's fiscal year ends June 30).</p><p>The track-level purse estimates are based on previously announced formulas that saw 14% of the track's net commission go to purses. Based on that rate, historical racing at Kentucky Downs generated about $5.19 million for purses (the track shared some of that money with Ellis Park), $2.25 million to be split between Keeneland and The Red Mile, and $655,672 for Ellis.&nbsp;</p><p>Kentucky Downs this year plans to transfer about $1.65 million earned through net commissions and through the KTDF to Ellis Park to keep the state racing circuit strong. In 2016 Kentucky Downs transferred $1.35 million such funds to Ellis.</p><p>Purses at Ellis this year are scheduled to average a record $210,000 a day, including a record $40,000 for maiden races if the horse was bred in Kentucky and is by a Kentucky stallion.</p><p>Historical racing also generates money for the Kentucky Thoroughbred Breeders' Incentive Fund. Historical racing handle in fiscal year 2017 generated about $500,000 for that fund.</p><p>Churchill Downs Inc. announced this year a $60 million project to develop its own historical racing games and open a facility at its Trackside training center property in 2018. <span class="bloodhorse-racetrack" data-track-profile-id="27">Turfway Park</span> is putting plans together to add the games, which since their 2011 launch have seen nearly $2.66 billion wagered.</p><p><br data-cke-eol="1"></p><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td colspan="4"><p><b>&nbsp; Kentucky historical horse racing<br>&nbsp; &nbsp;(dollar figures in millions)</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><p><b>&nbsp;Economic indicator</b></p></td><td><p><b>&nbsp;FY17</b></p></td><td><p><b>FY16</b></p></td><td><p><b>Change</b></p></td></tr><tr><td><p>&nbsp;Total handle</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$920.3&nbsp;</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$641.8&nbsp;</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;+43%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>&nbsp;KTDF money</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$5.87</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$4.23</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;+39%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>&nbsp;Kentucky Downs handle&nbsp;</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$572.0</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$413.3</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;+38%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>&nbsp;Keeneland/Red Mile</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$274.4&nbsp;</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$155.4</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;+76%</p></td></tr><tr><td><p>&nbsp;Ellis Park</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$73.9</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;$73.0</p></td><td><p>&nbsp;+1.2%</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>&nbsp;</p><img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648544" width="1" height="1">KeenelandKentuckyEllis Parkhistorical racingKentucky DownsRecent Hialeah Park Meet Sends Wrong Chillshttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/07/18/recent-hialeah-park-meet-sends-wrong-chills.aspxTue, 18 Jul 2017 17:12:00 GMTb1464f20-99eb-45e5-b651-41da03ecff36:648536Frank Angst0http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=648536http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/keeping-pace/archive/2017/07/18/recent-hialeah-park-meet-sends-wrong-chills.aspx#comments<p>In recent years I have been fortunate to make three trips to
the winter Quarter Horse meet at Hialeah Park, where even though the breed
changed, the walls-adorned with famous silks and photos of famous people-still
told stories. </p><p>And those walls echoed with new stories, specifically cheers
of young fans enthusiastically encouraging horses, even sprinting with horses
through the stretch. </p><p>Hialeah president John Brunetti Jr., pumped $60 million into
the racing facility to bring modern amenities to one of racing's most hallowed tracks.
Here was a live meet bringing in new, young fans with a passion for racing.
Taken as a whole, the experience sent chills. The 2015-2016 meet attracted
nearly $2 million in handle.</p><p>This year Hialeah offered a much different race meet, racing
not recognized by the American Quarter Horse Association or reported by
Equibase. For many, this meet created chills of concern as Hialeah rolled out a
series of match races to meet its minimum state racing requirements to retain
its casino license. </p><p>According to a spokesperson for the Pari-Mutuel Division of
the Florida Department of Business and Professional Regulation, total handle on
this "racing" from May 31-June 25 was $4,116. That number suggests that as far
as the public was concerned, there was no Quarter Horse Racing at Hialeah.</p><p>Brunetti couldn't be reached, but last month told BloodHorse
the new approach reduced racing costs. &nbsp;</p><p>Ron Smith, president of the Florida Quarter Horse Racing
Association that put on the Hialeah meets from 2009-16, said this year's meet
should concern the entire industry. </p><p>"It's not just the Florida Quarter Horse industry,"
Smith said. "We think that we are the guinea pigs. We believe that if they
can pull this off in Florida, and eliminate us, it will go all over the country
and it will not just be Quarter Horses, it will be Thoroughbreds too." </p><p>After committing about $5 million in purses a year to the
meet in recent years, Brunetti and the horsemen failed to reach an agreement
ahead of a 2016-17 winter meet. The track instead turned to the South Florida
Quarter Horse Association; several of that group's founders are also part of
the "low-cost" Gretna Racing. </p><p>While tracks and horsemen have always haggled, a difference
in Florida compared with other racing states is the lack of a racing commission
to step in during such disputes, noted Bill White, who heads the Florida
Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association, which represents the interests
of Thoroughbred horsemen. </p><p>"The closest thing we have is the Division of Pari-Mutuel
Wagering," White said. "They view themselves as a licensing
organization and they are reluctant to become involved in any disputes. That's
why pretty much every dispute in Florida ends up in court."</p><p>One factor in the corner of Florida Thoroughbred horsemen,
White said, is the law specifically requires tracks to reach agreements with a
majority horsemen's group. He said the law is not as specific when it comes to
Quarter Horse racing. With that in mind, Smith's group is working to change and
update laws on the Quarter Horse side in the state. </p><p>&nbsp;</p>
<img src="http://cs.bloodhorse.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=648536" width="1" height="1">FloridaAmerican Quarter Horse AssociationJohn BrunettiFlorida HBPADivision of Pari-Mutuel WageringRon SmithBill WhiteHialeah ParkQuarter Horse