Things to Watch on the Economic Calendar

Next week it is the jobs data’s world, we just live in it. At the Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellenhighlighted central bank research on labor-market conditions that depends on up to 24 different labor-related series. Many of them will be updated in various releases due next week and there will be other job-market information on tap. Here are five labor-related points to ponder:

No surprise, most of the job data detailed in that Fed study can be found in the monthly employment report. The Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the August numbers on Friday. Economists expect August nonfarm payrolls increased close to 220,000. If so (and barring downward revisions), payrolls increased at 200,000 or better for seven months in a row, the longest such trend since 1997.

If Ms. Yellen said it once, she’s said it a dozen times: Wage growth matters when it comes to judging the health of the labor markets. The employment report will contain two measures of hourly pay, one covering all private employees, and one for production workers. The latter is the one included in the Fed’s new labor-market index.

Ahead of Friday’s employment report, the Institute for Supply Management will release two surveys of business executives, one for manufacturers on Tuesday and one for non-manufacturers on Thursday. Each survey includes a reading on employment. An increase in either or both will lift expectations about Friday’s payroll change.

On Thursday, payroll giant Automatic Data Processing will release its own tally of private sector jobs. Many economists are wary about the ADP report because in the past it has missed the BLS’s number big-time. But the absolute error has shrunk so far in 2014: the error has averaged 27,000 versus a larger 50,000 absolute miss across all 12 months of 2013.

The Fed will release the Beige Book on Wednesday. The book is a compilation of economic anecdotes collected among the 12 districts. Each regional bank reports on hiring, wage and labor-shortage trends in its district. The book is prepared ahead of the Fed’s September 16-17 policy meeting.

Aside from higher wages to attract talent for these skilled positions, wage
pressures remained modest in most Districts.