Tuesday, January 14, 2014

The Projector: Oscar's Big Six Edition UPDATE

Friday UPDATE: Jonah Hill, you my friend are a winner. The now two-time Oscar nominee was amongst the biggest surprises doled out by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Thursday, Hill's The Wolf of Wall Street cleaned up quite nicely with five total noms, all biggies: best picture, director, actor, supporting actor and adapted screenplay — Leo DiCaprio scoring his well-deserved due with his first nomination since 2006's Blood Diamond. Let's quickly break down the rest of the winners/losers.

Winners

Philomena – Based on recent history and their relentless pursuit of all things shiny, we knew one Weinstein project was likely to grab a best picture spot and this was the one over August: Osage County and Fruitvale Station.

Her – While Spike Jonze failed to snare a director nod, a best picture nom should sate Warner Bros.

Sally Hawkins – Taking the fifth and final supporting spot over Oprah, Hawkins should consider herself a bigger winner than the actress who takes home the Oscar.

Losers

Robert Redford – While I'm loathe to simply use "all is lost", the 77-year-old's likely last opportunity to win an Oscar sailed off into the sunset.

Tom Hanks – Went from possible double nominee to nada. Proof this year was stacked with pristine performances.Saving Mr. Banks – In arguably the Academy's most egregious snub, Emma Thompson was passed over for best actress as the film itself received the same number of nominations as both Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger — one.

Fruitvale Station – Does the Academy have a quota: only one black film per year? Zero nominations is criminal.

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Predicting Oscar nominations can be a screwy proposition. Look no further than last year for proof of that fact. In doling out their directorial nominees, the Academy deemed it unnecessary to recognize the guy who ended up winning every single best director award in the lead-up to the Oscars: Ben Affleck. Sure, those 6,000+ members attempted to mitigate their egregious mistake by handing Argo their Best Picture prize, but the whole thing pointed to what those of us who've been covering this Super Bowl of acting have grown quite accustomed to: expect the unexpected come nomination day. Who will be snubbed this year? Place your bets on Leonardo DiCaprio, in what would be an equally-grievous omission as Mr. Garner. Here are my best bets for Oscar's Big Six: picture, director, actor, actress, and the two supporting trophies.

(All films/actors/actresses listed in order of strength of potential nomination)

Best Picture

On deckHerBlue JasminePhilomenaThe ButlerBefore MidnightAugust: Osage CountyFC Analysis: Betting on the max 10 nominees; strong year with 12 Years a Slave the clear front-runner. Will Her be frozen out? Can Blue Jasmine or Before Midnight sneak in? What about Short Term 12? Is Weinstein's best-picture streak – five years running – toast? Harvey's best shot is Fruitvale Station, but Philomenaor The Butler – even August: Osage County – could surprise.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron Gravity
Steve McQueen 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell American Hustle
Martin Scorsese The Wolf of Wall Street
Paul Greengrass Captain PhillipsOn deck
Alexander Payne Nebraska
J.C. Chandor All Is Lost
Spike Jonze Her
Joel & Ethan Coen Inside Llewyn Davis
Woody Allen Blue JasmineFC Analysis: Love the DGA's final five and expect the same nominees here. That said, given the absurdities of last year, the Academy could serve up some wild cards; J.C. Chandor would be a welcome – much deserving – addition.

Joaquin Phoenix HerFC Analysis: It's the old guard (Robert Redford) versus the new guard (Matthew McConaughey) for the crown. If not now for Leo, when? Will CBS Films' hellacious promotional push pay off for Oscar Isaac?

Best Actress

On deck
Amy Adams American Hustle
Brie Larson Short Term 12
Julie Delpy Before Midnight
Julia Louis-Dreyfus Enough Said
Greta Gerwig Frances HaFC Analysis: Cate Blanchett's to lose; the biggest lock of the Oscars. Could Brie Larson sneak in after her Gotham Awards win? How on earth is Sandra Bullock flighty performance considered a strong contender?

FC Twitter Feed

It was many moons ago in a darkened theater that my love of cinema took root as I snuck in to see my first R-rated film, Blade Runner. The futuristic vision that Ridley Scott unleashed on the screen was simply soul-expanding — spiritual even. From that moment, my mission to have that kind of magic strike again began in earnest. My hope is to be able to shine a light on films that may just have that kind of effect on you — films that may sometimes be lesser known, but not lesser in impact.&nbsp—EW