June 27, 2008

More guns = more crime?

Washington, D.C. Mayor Adrian Fenty, lamenting the decision overturning his city's handgun ban, said Thursday, "More handguns in the District of Columbia will only lead to more handgun violence." That's a dangerous statement for a politician to make--an empirical claim that can be judged against empirical data.

I emailed Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck, one of the nation's leading gun scholars, to ask if the proposition Fenty set out is true. Surprise: It's not.

Kleck says his latest research indicates that when gun ownership rises among noncriminals, homicide rates decline. When gun ownership among criminals rises, there is no clear effect on homicide rates. Getting rid of the D.C. law, of course, should have no effect on criminals, since they don't get their guns legally anway. It will only make it easier for law-abiding residents to own and use firearms.

"My best guess," says Kleck, "is a drop in homicide, net of all the other forces that affect homicide rates." If that happens, will the mayor thank the Supreme Court?

About this blog

I’m a columnist and editorial writer with strong opinions about a wide range of issues, and this blog lets me address many of them. What readers can find here is an independent, libertarian perspective beholden to no party, candidate or dogma. Whatever your political outlook, I think you’ll find things to agree with—and things to disagree with. About Steve Chapman