Consumer Price Index

CONSUMER PRICES UP 0.6% IN JUNE 2018

ALL-ITEMS: For the month of June 2018, the results of the Statistical Institute of Belize's monthly Consumer Price Index survey showed that, on average, Belizean households experienced a 0.6 percent increase in the cost of regularly purchased goods and services when compared to the same month last year. The All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 105.0, an increase from 104.4 in June 2017 (see Figure 1). For the first six months of the year, a year to date inflation rate of 0.02 percent was recorded.

TRANSPORT: The greatest contributor to the overall rise in consumer prices was a 4.5 percent increase in the 'Transport' index. This increase was mainly due to a significant rise in prices for all types of motor vehicle fuel, as evidenced by a 10.3 percent increase in the 'Fuel and Lubricants' sub-category. The price per gallon of Premium gasoline rose 10.5 percent from $10.62 in June 2017 to $11.73 in June 2018. Regular gasoline rose 14.4 percent from $9.97 to $11.41, while the price per gallon of Diesel saw the most significant increase of 20.6 percent, from $9.08 to $10.95 (see Table 1). International airfare prices, after declining for several months earlier in the year, were up 3.6 percent compared to June of last year. In addition, the purchase prices for new motor vehicles increased by almost 3 percent on average, while the cost of vehicle maintenance and repairs was up by 4.9 percent.

FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES and ALCOHOLIC
BEVERAGES: Continuing the trend of previous months, 'Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' continued to see a moderate reduction during the month of June. Prices within the 'Food' sub-category declined by a marginal 0.4 percent, due to decreases in the average prices of several meat products, including beef steak, pork chops and pigtail. These were enough to offset increases in the average cost of several fruits and vegetables, including a 13.4 percent increase in the price per pound for red kidney beans, a 22.4 percent increase in the price per pound for pineapples, and a 15 percent increase in the price per pound for potatoes (see Table 1). Non-Alcoholic Beverages also recorded a 2 percent decrease during the period, as a result of a fall in the price of coffee and tea compared to June of last year.

HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS: A drop in average home rental costs coupled with rising prices for Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) resulted in a slight overall increase of 0.03 percent in the 'Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels' category during the month. While home rental costs were 0.4 percent lower than they were in June 2017, this reduction was overshadowed by a 14.7 percent rise in the cost of Liquefied Petroleum Gas. The average cost of a 100-pound cylinder of LPG rose from $100.37 in June 2017 to $115.08 in June of 2018 (see Table 1).

ALL OTHER GOODS AND SERVICES: Together, the remaining categories of goods and services saw a 0.7 percent rise in consumer prices in the month of June. In particular, doctors' consultation fees, entrance fees to sporting events and facilities, and motor vehicle insurance premiums were all up when compared to June of last year.

INFLATION RATES BY MUNICIPALITY: For two consecutive months, Orange Walk Town has reported the highest rate of increase in consumer prices, with an inflation rate of 2.2 percent, as households in that municipality experienced higher than average increases in the cost of food items. Dangriga Town, on the other hand, once again had the lowest inflation rate, with consumers in that town seeing on average a 1.8 percent decrease in the prices of goods and services, due to a decline in home rental costs in comparison to the same period last year (see Figure 3).

External Trade Bulletin

IMPORTS UP 10.5%, DOMESTIC EXPORTS DOWN 7.3% IN JUNE 2018

IMPORTS

June 2018: For the month of June 2018, Belize imported
goods valuing $170.8 million. This represented a 10.5 percent
or $16.2 million increase from the same month in 2017, when
imports totalled over $154.7 million.

The principal cause of this overall increase for the month
was a sizeable growth in the quantity of diesel fuel imported,
coupled with significantly higher world market prices for
fuels compared to June of 2017. The ‘Mineral Fuels and
Lubricants’ category surged from $14.6 million to $31.5
million, largely attributable to the fact that the country nearly
doubled its imported volumes of diesel in June of this year
while also facing considerably higher world market prices
during the month. In addition, there were notable increases in
goods destined for the ‘Commercial Free Zones’, which rose
from almost $27 million to $31.4 million, due to heightened
purchases of cigarettes, footwear and perfumes. An uptick in
imported ‘Manufactured Goods’, from $18.9 million in June
2017 to $21.4 million in June 2018, was also recorded, as a
result of greater imports of steel rods, steel scaffolding and
galvanised steel coils.

Notwithstanding the overall increase in imports for the month,
marked decreases were recorded across four categories,
‘Chemical Products’, ‘Crude Materials’, ‘Export Processing
Zones’ and ‘Other Manufactures’. Owing to reduced
purchases of herbicides, drainage pipes and antibiotics,
imports of ‘Chemical Products’ fell by $2.1 million, from $19.9
million in June of last year to $17.8 million in June 2018, while
diminished imports of pine lumber, resulted in a $2 million drop
in the category of ‘Crude Materials’, from $3.6 million to nearly
$1.6 million. Imports into the ‘Export processing Zones’ went
down by $1.6 million, from $4.1 million to $2.5 million, with
tanks for water and gas, as well as rubber hoses being among
the decreased goods, while imports of ‘Other Manufactures’
declined by $1.4 million, from $13.9 million to $12.5 million,
with laboratory plastics and prefabricated buildings, together
with gaming machines and their parts experiencing the most
notable decreases within that category.

FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR: Merchandise imports
for the period January to June 2018 totalled $923.1 million,
representing a 3.2 percent or $28.9 million increase from the
same six-month period last year.

This increase was in large part the result of the rising cost for
fuel on the world market, as the country paid approximately 30
percent or $31.8 million more on imported ‘Mineral Fuels and Lubricants’, which rose from $106.8 million in 2017 to $138.6 million
in 2018. Goods meant for the ‘Commercial Free Zones’ also rose markedly over the period, going up by $10.3 million from $134.8
million to $145.1 million due to increased purchases of bags and clothing, while imports of ‘Machinery and Transport Equipment’ grew
by $8.1 million, from $182.6 million in 2017 to $190.7 million in 2018, owing to increased imports of telecommunications equipment,
four-cylinder vehicles and food processing machines. On the other hand, the first six months of the year saw decreased purchases in
some commodity categories, most notably ‘Other Manufactures’, ‘Crude Materials’, ‘Chemical Products’ and ‘Manufactured Goods’,
which together fell by a combined $21.1 million in the first six months of the year.

DOMESTIC EXPORTS

June 2018: The total value of Belize’s domestic exports for the month of June 2018 was $35.9 million, down 7.3 percent or $2.8
million from the $38.7 million recorded for June 2017.
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Sugar exports saw the largest decline for the month of June. Despite a 17.2 percent boost in the volumes of that commodity
exported, earnings from sugar fell by 16.1 percent, from $12.7 million in June 2017 to $10.7 million in June 2018, as the industry
continues to be impacted by lower world market prices for bulk sugar. Reductions were also noted among other major exports when
compared to the same month last year. Marine exports shrank from $4.3 million to $3.3 million, due mostly to the fact that no shrimp
was exported in June of 2018. Sales of citrus products were also down, from nearly $10 million to almost $9.4 million, primarily as a
result of diminished orange concentrate exports. Furthermore, sawn wood, while not classified as a major export, also contributed
to the overall decrease in exports for the month. While earnings for that product amounted to $1.4 million in June of last year, the
country exported no sawn wood in June 2018.

Bananas were the only major export to have seen an increase during the month, with earnings from that commodity growing by just
under $0.5 million, from a little over $5 million to $5.5 million. In addition, among Belize’s other exports, molasses and animal feed,
both saw boosted sales for the month. Export revenues from molasses totalled nearly $2.2 million for June of this year, more than
three times that of June 2017, while earnings from animal feed almost tripled from just under $0.7 million in June 2017 to almost $2
million in June 2017.

Bananas were the only major export to have seen an increase during the month, with earnings from that commodity growing by just
under $0.5 million, from a little over $5 million to $5.5 million. In addition, among Belize’s other exports, molasses and animal feed,
both saw boosted sales for the month. Export revenues from molasses totalled nearly $2.2 million for June of this year, more than
three times that of June 2017, while earnings from animal feed almost tripled from just under $0.7 million in June 2017 to almost $2
million in June 2017.

For the month, earnings from exports to the United States of America fell sharply from $17.6 million to $9.7 million, while revenues
from exports to the United Kingdom (UK) almost tripled compared to last June, rising by $9.1 million from $4.6 million to $13.7 million.
This was due to the majority of Belize’s sugar being directed from the US, which was the primary destination for this commodity last
June, to the UK in June 2018. Diminished orange concentrate sales during the month resulted in reduced exports to the rest of the
European Union and CARICOM, each of which fell by roughly $1.3 million when compared to June of last year. In contrast, earnings
from Central America grew from just under $0.7 million to $1.9 million, due to the boost in sales of animal feed for the month.

FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR: Merchandise exports for the period January to June 2018 totalled $226.5 million, down 18
percent or $49.8 million from the $276.3 million recorded during same period last year.

The first half the year 2018 saw decreased export earnings across four of the country’s five major exports, with sugar being the
commodity to have suffered the greatest decline. Despite there being only a very minimal drop in the volumes of sugar exported
during the period, earnings from that commodity plunged by $33.8 million, from $107.6 million in 2017 to $73.8 million in 2018, a
loss attributable to decreased prices for bulk sugar on the world market. Exports of citrus products fell by almost $7 million, from
$57.6 million to $50.6 million, the result dwindling sales of orange concentrate and orange oil, while earnings from bananas dropped
by 15 percent or $6.1 million, from $41.7 million in 2017 to $35.6 million in 2018. Furthermore, despite strong sales of both lobster
tails and conch during the first six months of the year, exports of marine products declined from $17.2 million in 2017 to $14.7 million
in 2018, as shrimp exports continue to dwindle. Crude petroleum, on the other hand, was the only major export to see increased
earnings over the period, growing by $4.5 million from $11.4 million to $15.9 million, as that commodity continued to benefit from
favourable world market prices.

Export Earnings Down, Again

The Statistical Institute of Belize has released its latest figures on Belize’s Consumer Price Index and Trade for June 2018.

The CPI report says that consumer prices, meaning the regularly purchased household goods, were up by 0.6% for last month. The biggest contributor to household expenses last month was the 4.5 percent increase in Transport costs, which was due to the significant rise in prices for all types of fuel Lubricants which were up by 10.3%.

International airfare prices were also up by 3.6% when compared to last year June. The average prices for the purchase of motor vehicles increased by almost 3%, and vehicle maintenance and repairs were up by 4.9%.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages continued to see a moderate reduction, compared to June last year. Meats like beef, steak, pork chops and pigtail saw a decline in prices per pound, while several fruits and vegetables went up. Of particular interest is that the price per pound of red kidney beans went up by 14.4%, and potatoes went up by 15%.

Comparing inflation by municipality, Orange Walk Town had the highest at 2.2%, followed by Corozal Town, with 1.0%. Next was Belmopan at 0.9%, then Belize at 0.8%. Punta Gorda had an inflation rate of just 0.3%, and after that, the other municipalities recorded negative inflation rates. San Ignacio and Santa Elena had -0.2%, and Dangriga had -1.8% - meaning prices declined in those towns.

Turning now to External Trade, the SIB says that in June 2018, Belize imported goods valuing 170.8 million dollars. That was 10.5% more than last year’s imports. The SIB says that this increase was mostly due to the sizable growth in the quantity and price of diesel fuel imported.

There were also notable increases in the goods destined for the “Commercial Free Zones. Those imports grew from almost 27 million dollars last year June to 31.4 million dollars this year June - due mostly to increases in the importation of cigarettes.

In contrast, Exports for June 2018 were down by 7.3%, when compared to last year. Belize exported 38.7 million dollars’ worth of goods in June 2017, but in June 2018, those exports totaled only 35.9 million dollars. Sugar exports saw the largest decline. Despite a 17.2 boost in production and export, earnings fell by 16.1%.

Bananas were the only major export to report increase this year June. Earnings grew from 5 million dollars last year, to 5.5 million dollars this year.