Glyphland

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

The NFL Draft functions as the starting gun for a wide array of "where are they now" pieces from the lofty heights of ESPN to the dregs of the blogosphere. The Feldman piece linked previously is a recap of the '02 Army All-American game and provides hilarious insight into the deeply twisted mind of Tom Lemming, who put college fooball legends Jake Carney, Marcus Freeman, and Scott Raridon -- Irish recruits all -- in the game. There were no fewer than twelve Irish recruits in the game, including three tight ends! Of course, Notre Dame's legendary 2002 recruiting class would proceed to extend Notre Dame's streak without a bowl win to 58 years and leave their indelible mark on us all.

While Feldman's piece clearly illuminates the downside of college football recruiting, there is a case to be made for the enteprise other than "yay money." Do recruiting rankings matter? I tend to think yes, but it's fairly common to see people declare rankings to be useless (Braylon Edwards, AJ Hawk) or outstanding based on anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes substituting for actual numbers is a major pet peeve of mine, especially when it's something fairly easy to compile and track. Enclosed herein is an attempt to rate the Rivals ratings.

Ratings criteria:

Rivals' goal is to project high school players to college, not to the NFL. Someone like Kai Parham was a very productive college player and All-ACC, which matters more than the fact that he just went undrafted. Draft position does matter somewhat, but some players just don't translate to the NFL -- Rivals shouldn't be punished for that.

Rivals does not employ a battery of psychologists and thus can't possibly figure out which players are going to pull their piece at a McDonald's or flunk out or have several vertebrae explode. Players who had their careers derailed due to legal incidents, terminal inability to attend class, or a jumpy pancreas won't be held against Rivals. Players who can't hack it and transfer to podunk schools will, however. When a player has been around long enough so that a talent judgement can be rendered (say, Ahmad Brooks), a rating will be given despite knucklehead factors.

A five point scale is used to rate the performance of the player in college.

Total bust.

Mediocre player who contributed in some way.

Average starter.

Above-average starter. Starts for three or more years or garners all-conference recognition.

Star. All-American, award-winning type or just one of the team's best players.

These are ballpark figures. Anyone more familiar with non-Midwestern players who disagree with the assessments below are welcome to disagree.

A few players are still unknown, primarily guys who go on Mormon missions or get stuck behind extremely strong starters. This list punts on them.

The schools, draft positions and some hints on the fates of the more obscure members of the list were provided by a post from Rivals poster NYGator($). 2002's top 50 are below. Expect the next fifty in about a week.

#

Player

School

Drafted

Career Notes

Verdict

1

Vince Young

Texas

Rd 1, #3

is Vince Young.

Bingo. 5/5.

2

Haloti Ngata

Oregon

Rd 1, #12

Starter by his fifth game. Injured and missed all of '03 but a first team All-American in '05.

Bingo. 5/5.

3

Lorenzo Booker

FSU

2007

Still in school. Has split time with fellow high-profile recruit Leon Washington. Impressive in his time on the field but severely limited by Jeff Bowden's disdain for gaining yards.

Flunked out, transfered to a CC, attempted to transfer to NC State, but never got there.

TKE.

20

Trent Edwards

Stanford

2007

Going into his third full year as the starter; completed 63% of his passes last year with 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

5/5. Pretty much the only thing keeping Stanford competitive.

21

Deljuan Robinson

Miss. State

2007

Going into his second year as a starter at DT but hasn't made a major impact. Open heart surgery as a freshman and some tragic car accidents may have something to do with that.

3/5.

22

Jerious Norwood

Miss. State

Rd 3, #79

Though SMQB has a serious distaste for his game, Norwood did rack up over 3,000 career rushing yards for the generally moribund Mississippi State program, and it's hard to blame him for underperforming against vicious SEC defenses when his offensive line was no doubt overwhelmed on a regular basis.

4/5.

23

Marquis Johnson

Texas

2007

Academics forced him to JUCO, from there he transferred to Texas Tech and had 13 catches in '05, though none over the last six games. One more year left to play.

1/5. Bust.

24

Derek Morris

NC State

Not drafted

Academics forced a transfer from OSU to NC State; "undisclosed issues" forced him to sit out another four games. Once eligible, Morris was an instant starter for the Wolfpack, playing right tackle for three years before entering the draft early... smooth move.

3/5. Long-term starter but not a notable one.

25

Darren Williams

Miss. State

2007

Booted from MSU for unspecified violation of team rules and transfered to I-AA Jacksonville State. Before the problems he started for most of his freshman and junior years.

Tentative TKE, but on talent alone Williams appears to be a strike.

26

Pat Watkins

FSU

Rd 5, #183

Starter at FS his final two years on a bad-ass defense. Honorable mention all-ACC as a senior and an NFL draft pick.

4/5.

27

Ahmad Brooks

Virginia

Supplemental Pending

Starter from the moment he stepped on UVA's campus. A first-team All-American and Butkus finalist as a sophomore... and then things went to hell. Missed six games with injuries as a junior, failed a drug test, and got booted off the team.

5/5, TKE factors aside.

28

Devin Hester

Miami

Rd 2, #57

Little bastard has his photo on the wall of every special teams coach in the country. The caption reads "Do not kick to this man." Couldn't find a non-KR position, bouncing between WR and CB, but that didn't stop him from being drafted in the second round.

Tough player to judge, but he was the proverbial game-changer. 4/5

29

Mike D'Andrea

OSU

2007

Injury-plagued and stuck behind guys like Hawk and Carpenter, D'Andrea has played sparingly. Will get a chance to start this year.

1/5.

30

James Banks

Tennessee

N/A

Incorrigible problem child who got kicked off a football team run by Phil Fulmer -- yow.

TKE.

31

Zach Latimer

Oklahoma

2007

Played sparingly in his first three years but won the MLB job as a junior and was productive: 84 tackles, 4 sacks, 5 PBUs and honorable mention All Big 12.

Planet-sized DT had obvious physical talent but applied it infrequently, earning a benching for portions of his senior year. Was still nigh-immovable in the middle and was named All Big Ten for two consecutive years.

4/5.

34

Jonathan Mapu

Tennessee

2009

Mormon mission.

Pending.

35

Edorian McCullough

Texas

Not drafted.

Looked like a rising star during his freshman year at Texas but flunked out, transferred to a JUCO, tried to get in at Oregon State, couldn't hack it, and evaporated. Just signed a UDFA contract with Jacksonville.

TKE.

36

Marcedes Lewis

UCLA

Rd 1, #29

Ginormous tight end ended up a three-year starter and first-round draft pick. Led UCLA with 58 receptions for 741 yards and 10 touchdowns as a senior. All-American and Mackey award winner.

5/5.

37

Maurice Clarett

OSU

Rd 3, #101

...is Maurice Clarett.

The very definition of the TKE.

38

Bryan Pickryl

Texas

N/A

Injury-forced retirement.

Injury exemption.

39

Lonnie Davis

FSU

N/A

Academic washout who ended up at Elizabeth City State U.

TKE.

40

Justin Zwick

OSU

2007

Hilariously inept when pressed into service and lost his job to Troy Smith, preventing mass suicides across the state of Ohio. Busterrific.

1/5.

41

AJ Nicholson

FSU

Rd 5, #157

Two-year starter at linebacker and taser target. Second team All-ACC and a Butkus semifinalist.

4/5.

42

Rhema McKnight

Notre Dame

2007

Blew out a knee last year and applied for a fifth year of eligibility. Notre Dame's leading receiver the two years before that with 40-some catches each year.

4/5. Not a great player but a good one.

43

Julian Jenkins

Stanford

Rd 5, #156

Starter at DE for final two years and honorable mention All Pac Ten both times.

4/5.

44

Marvin Byrdsong

Miss. State

Not drafted

Started for MSU as a junior, then left when Croom came in, inserted freshmen in front of him, and wanted to play him at DE. Landed at Northwestern State and killed persons at the I-AA level.

2/5.

45

Marcus Jackson

Georgia

N/A

Retired due to a blood clot in his brain.

Injury exemption.

46

Kyle Williams

USC

2007

Hasn't started a single game yet since he was stuck behind Winston Justice, but will get a crack this year.

Called steaming pile of crap by head coach Urban Meyer earlier this spring; still probably going to start for Florida in the fall. Career to date has been full of hijinks and two-yard gains.

2/5.

49

Kedrick Golston

UGA

Rd 6, #196

Started on and off for all four years save when a bevy of unrelated injuries slowed him down. All-SEC third team as a junior. Crappy stats but is a DT, known for crappy stats.

4/5.

50

Justin Vincent

LSU

2007

Bizarre career featuring 1,000 yards and a national title as a freshman. Since then he's been buried behind Joseph Addai and Alley Broussard.

3/5? Clearly talented but with Broussard back probably going to end his career an afterthought.

Results

5

8

4

14

3

5

2

4

1

4

Pending

3

Injury

3

Knuckleheads

8

Track

1

Are these any good?

I think they're outstanding. If you remove the 15 players who busted out for reasons other than "no talent," you have a 63 percent chance of getting a player who is an above-average starter. The average rating across all players is 3.5. NFL teams would kill for that strike rate for the top 50 picks in the NFL draft. Even if you throw in the guys Rivals couldn't forsee would have star-crossed lives, the hit rate is still 44 percent for good players and above 50 for average starters. Hell, even some of the TKEs made contributions: Clarett, Vick, and Darren Williams.

Anyway: this is sort of pain in the ass, but I do plan on finishing this within the week.