The Case for Why Sarah Palin Won’t Run for President

When news surfaced yesterday that Sarah Palin would be venturing to Iowa to headline the GOP’s annual Reagan Day Dinner on September 17, she sparked a new round of media speculation about her 2012 presidential ambitions. Ever since Palin resigned from the Governor’s Mansion last summer, the will-she-or-won’t-she guessing game that occupies the minds of Republicans (and many optimistic Democrats) has turbocharged her appeal as a national figure.

But the trip to Iowa, like almost anything to do with Palin, can be read in a number of ways. On the one hand, it might be an earnest attempt to begin to build a campaign. But it’s also, certainly, an effective move for a media figure like Palin — Matt Drudge played it huge. For Palin, running for president is partly a kind of profit center. “It’s an industry to write about Sarah and put her on TV,” John Coale, the prominent Democratic lawyer and husband of Fox News anchor Greta Van Susteren, told me. “We’re two years into this and people are still fascinated by her. But, if she doesn’t run, does she maintain thisinterest?”

In fact, in conversations in recent days with Republicans and advisers familiar with her thinking, there has been a mounting feeling that Palin probably won’t run for president — not that anyone would go so far as to predict what the Mama Grizzly-in-Chief is going to do with certainty. “They’re not ramping up, and they’re not adding staff. My guess is she’s not going to run,” said one Republican close to her, who, like others in Palin-world, insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations. “I don’t think she’s going to run for anything,” added another adviser. “My reasoning is as follows: She hated what was happening in public office. She was getting pilloried, she was going broke, she really didn’t like it — it’s why she left. She hated her life. She hated it. Now she has the world by the tail. She’s speaking to adoring crowds. Maybe only 20 percent of the people like her, but they adore her. I would be stunned if she does it. I would give it 90 percent probability she doesn’t run. … She’s smart enough to know the chances of getting elected is very, very slim. And she will get pilloried in the process. She likes her life up there, now she has the money she needs. She has the best of bothworlds.”

Her advisers, both on her payroll and in her kitchen cabinet, cautioned that no options have been ruled out, and any decision on a presidential run would likely come late in the process, perhaps next fall, several months before the Iowacaucus.

And yet there is a strong case to be made that Palin faces large hurdles — some of her own choosing — in staging a 2012 run. For one, her political infrastructure remains a bare-bones operation. As other GOP contenders court professional advisers, Palin has so far rejected calls from some members of her inner circle who have pushed her to professionalize her operation and strike a less antagonistic approach to dealing with reporters. “Sarah Palin doesn’t like staff,” one source familiar with the inner workings of Palin-world told me. “She doesn’t need that. She’s proven to herself ‘I don’t need to do this rightnow.’”

Another problem: her Iowa polling. In August, Palin finished a disappointing fourth in a match-up of Republicans, with only 11 percent (Mike Huckabee won with 22 percent, followed by Mitt Romney with 18 percent and Newt Gingrich at 14 percent). She remains little known to the insular Iowa caucus machinery that rewards candidates who hustle for votes (hence the routine Iowa appearances by Romney, Santorum, andPawlenty).

“The ability to excite voters — she’s got that. In my mind, there’s more to the equation than that,” says veteran GOP strategist Jim Dyke. “Based on the ‘08 campaign, she can excite people. But were they excited by her specifically, or in comparison to her running mate, were they just desperate for something? Whoknows.”

And then there’s Palin’s drama-fueled personal life that undercuts her stark family-values message, a potential political liability to Christian conservative GOP primaryvoters.

Right now, Palin remains focused on building her media career. She has just wrapped up taping her TLC series, and on November 23, HarperCollins will publish her second book, America By Heart. According to sources familiar with the book, Palin most likely won’t be participating in a huge multi-city bus tour like the campaign-style promotional effort for Going Rogue. A spokesperson for HarperCollins said no final decisions on the book tour have been madeyet.

Palin’s busy media schedule has forced her to cancel trips abroad to bulk up her foreign-policy weakness. This fall, Palin had planned to travel to London to meet Margaret Thatcher and also discussed a trip to Israel. But now both trips have been scrapped because she’s been too busy. One source explained that she may travel after the midterms, but no dates have beenfinalized.

With the fall midterm season in full swing, attention is already shifting toward what happens after November. Her flirtation with presidential politics is a big part of her appeal in the national media. The New York Times Magazine assigned veteran political writer Robert Draper to report a big Palin profile for this fall, and she remains a regular presence on cable news, as a paid contributor to Fox and a ratings magnet across the political spectrum on MSNBC. As long as her intentions remain an open question, Palin’s prominence on the national stage isassured.

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Might not be the right guys to achieve that goal

One was ousted from NPR amid allegations of sexual harassment. The other left Fox News shortly after writing a column widely panned as racist and anti-gay. Now they’ve been recruited to help launch a digital news startup with the stated goal of restoring faith in media.

The Trump administration is changing the way it reviews sponsors who want to care for migrant children in government custody — backing off a requirement that all people in the house are fingerprinted.

The fingerprint requirement began in June amid the zero-tolerance policy at the border that led to the separation of some 2,400 children from their parents. The children taken from parents were placed in shelters until a sponsor, often a parent or other family member, could be found and evaluated before releasing the children to that sponsor.

But the addition of fingerprinting has slowed the process and clogged the shelters. Some potential sponsors have said they couldn’t get people in their homes to be fingerprinted because they were afraid. The information is shared with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and officers have arrested some 170 sponsors and others on immigration violations using the fingerprint data.

I am officially declaring e-cigarette use among youth an epidemic in the United States. Now is the time to take action. We need to protect our young people from all tobacco products, including e-cigarettes.

For years, Facebook gave some of the world’s largest technology companies more intrusive access to users’ personal data than it has disclosed, effectively exempting those business partners from its usual privacy rules, according to internal records and interviews. …

The social network allowed Microsoft’s Bing search engine to see the names of virtually all Facebook users’ friends without consent, the records show, and gave Netflix and Spotify the ability to read Facebook users’ private messages.

Facebook permitted Amazon to obtain users’ names and contact information through their friends, and it let Yahoo view streams of friends’ posts as recently as this summer, despite public statements that it had stopped that type of sharing years earlier. …

Facebook also allowed Spotify, Netflix and the Royal Bank of Canada to read, write and delete users’ private messages, and to see all participants on a thread — privileges that appeared to go beyond what the companies needed to integrate Facebook into their systems, the records show

Judges dismiss 83 ethics complaints against Kavanaugh because they don’t have the authority to discipline a Supreme Court justice

A panel of federal judges announced Tuesday that it is dismissing all of the 83 ethics complaints brought against Justice Brett Kavanaugh regarding his behavior during his Supreme Court confirmation hearings.

Their dismissal did not question the validity of the complaints but concluded that lower-court judges do not have the authority to investigate or punish Supreme Court justices.

The complaints about Kavanaugh generally alleged that he lied during his nomination proceedings, made “inappropriate partisan statements that demonstrate bias and a lack of judicial temperament” and was disrespectful to the Senate Judiciary Committee during his September hearing, the panel’s decision noted.

For 2020, the RNC and Trump’s re-election campaign are merging into one organization called Trump Victory

It’s a stark expression of Trump’s stranglehold over the Republican Party: Traditionally, a presidential reelection committee has worked in tandem with the national party committee, not subsumed it.

Under the plan, which has been in the works for several weeks, the Trump reelection campaign and the RNC will merge their field and fundraising programs into a joint outfit dubbed Trump Victory. The two teams will also share office space rather than operate out of separate buildings, as has been custom.

The goal is to create a single, seamless organization that moves quickly, saves resources, and — perhaps most crucially — minimizes staff overlap and the kind of infighting that marked the 2016 relationship between the Trump campaign and the party. While a splintered field of Democrats fight for the nomination, Republicans expect to gain an organizational advantage.

China is running factories in its internment camps. Some of their products end up in America.

This is one of a growing number of internment camps in the Xinjiang region, where by some estimates 1 million Muslims are detained, forced to give up their language and their religion and subject to political indoctrination. Now, the Chinese government is also forcing some detainees to work in manufacturing and food industries. Some of them are within the internment camps; others are privately owned, state-subsidized factories where detainees are sent once they are released.

The Associated Press has tracked recent, ongoing shipments from one such factory inside an internment camp to Badger Sportswear, a leading supplier in Statesville, North Carolina. The shipments show how difficult it is to stop products made with forced labor from getting into the global supply chain, even though such imports are illegal in the U.S. Badger CEO John Anton said Sunday that the company would source sportswear elsewhere while it investigates.

President Donald Trump has ordered the Pentagon to create a unified combatant command for space operations, Vice President Mike Pence announced on Tuesday.

“The U.S. Space Command will integrate space capabilities across all branches of the military, it will develop the space doctrine, tactic, techniques and procedures that will enable our war fighters to defend our nation in this new era,” Pence said during a speech at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Jon, this week you published a piece about the Niskanen Center, a rational, culture-war eschewing, libertarian-leaning think tank that you posit could be the future of the GOP once the party evolves out of its current, absurd form. (This will clearly take a while.)

The piece inspired a Twitter commentator to point out that a lot of the center’s platforms actually sounded like President Obama’s more than anything else — a point with which you agreed. Was the 44th president really a liberal Republican all along?

anyway, Obama took elements of the old liberal Republican agenda that had been banished from the GOP: climate change, health care (where he hired the administrator Mitt Romney had hired in Massachusetts)

Ed Kilgore3:37 PM

I’d say Obama represented a convergence of two developments: Democrats warming to market-based mechanisms for achieving progressive goals, while Republicans abandoned progressive goals they used to share. Both developments were occurring under Clinton, of course.What makes the characterization of Obama as anything other than a standard liberal Democrat a bit questionable, though, is the context: six years of dealing with a Republican-controlled House (later joined by the Senate) dominated by intransigent conservatives.

But Jon’s right: Obama’s own agenda could have been supported cheerfully by those lost GOP liberal/moderates.

Benjamin Hart3:41 PM

yeah. and while jon’s original argument highlights what outliers conservatives in america are compared to other places, it’s tough to imagine obama fitting in as, say, a tory in england

Jonathan Chait3:42 PM

in some ways, tho – the tory stance on health care is to defend a state-run system!

hard to disentangle this from the existing status quo of course

Benjamin Hart3:43 PM

the overarching point is how far republicans have strayed from this flavor of at least semi-rational conservatism. are we decades away from it making a comeback in america, or, like, hundreds of years? does the party have to be electorally wiped out first?

Jonathan Chait3:44 PM

hard to project past “decades”

Benjamin Hart3:44 PM

well, you have to for this chat. I want an exact congressional map of 2142

Jonathan Chait3:45 PM

the conservative movement went from a minority faction in the GOP to the biggest faction by the late 70s/early 80s to the entire party by the 90s

Ed Kilgore3:45 PM

Like all ideologues, conservatives will have to choose between being regularly competitive or occasionally winning big and then wreaking havoc until they are expelled from office.

Jonathan Chait3:45 PM

it depends in part on what happens to democrats. If Democrats move sharply left, it opens more space for Republicans to court moderates Right now, the response to Niskanen’s ideas is ‘Democrats already do that stuff.” but if they didn’t, it would be easier for the GOP to co-opt that space.

I dunno. Conservatives soured on one-time heroes Reagan (before he became a saint again) and George W. Bush when they tried to do things to make conservatism more durable. As I think Jon has said on many occasions, conservatism can never be wrong to these people, so they have a tendency to eat their own as an alternative to ideological adaptation.

Benjamin Hart3:50 PM

it’s a nice little loophole

Ed Kilgore3:51 PM

All these characterization depend, of course, on how you think about Trump’s relationship to conservatism and to the GOP.

Benjamin Hart3:52 PM

indeed, which brings me to my last q: let’s say trump loses big in 2020. what effect do you see that having on the current conservative movement? would they just write him out as an apostate immediately?

Jonathan Chait3:52 PM

yep

it will take more than one loss to dislodge them

Ed Kilgore3:54 PM

Hard to say. I guess Trump may have permanently loosened some of the conservative movement’s once-rigid verities, like free trade. But if he’s trounced in 2020, yeah, I could see a standard conservative with some populist touches succeeding him. And Jon’s right: so long as they can find a scapegoat, conservative Republicans will look everywhere other than the mirror for the problem.

Black people are being left out of America’s opioid epidemic narrative

In the halls of Congress, a short bus ride away, medical professionals and bereaved families have warned for years of the damage caused by opioids to America’s predominantly white small towns and suburbs.

Almost entirely omitted from their message has been one of the drug epidemic’s deadliest subplots: The experience of older African Americans like Rogers, for whom habits honed over decades of addiction are no longer safe.

A 1974 New York state ban on nunchucks that was put into place over fears that youth inspired by martial arts movies would create widespread mayhem is unconstitutional under the Second Amendment, a federal court has ruled.

Judge Pamela Chen issued her ruling Friday in a Brooklyn federal court on the martial arts weapon made famous by Bruce Lee.

The appointment of GOP Rep. Martha McSally to the late Sen. John McCain’s Arizona Senate seat for the new year will push the chamber to a new milestone: The Senate in the 116th Congress will have the highest number of all-women delegations in history.

Six states will be represented by two women in the Senate in the new congress, surpassing the previous record of four states, which was the case in 2011 and again in 2012, 2013 and 2018.

Kristin Gillibrand is still facing blowback from donors from her strong, early stance against Franken

“For every one person who shares a concern with me, I have at least one person thanking me, and it tends to be young women who come up to me with tears in their eyes and say, ‘I can’t tell you how much it meant to me that you stood up and did the right thing,’” Gillibrand said. She added that around the time of the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, there were “a hundred” who came up to her to thank her at protest rallies.

Twitter is making it easier to see your timeline in reverse-chronological order again

The latest incarnation of the original Twitter feed can be accessed by tapping the cluster of small stars — the company calls it the “sparkle” and now so shall we all, forever — and switching to see the latest tweets.