Mubarak: You know what? I was never planning to run for reelection anyway; Update: Shots fired in Alexandria; Update: Obama to speak within the hour

posted at 5:08 pm on February 1, 2011 by Allahpundit

He wants to stay on until the next elections, which even he now acknowledges should be sped up from their scheduled date in September. I’m … reasonably sure that’s a non-starter for everyone at this point. So why even propose it? Four possibilities. One: Losing control has led him to lose touch with reality, i.e. he sincerely believes he can hold on. Two: The pride borne of 30 years of absolute power means he’s not leaving on anyone’s terms but his own. Three: It’s worth a shot, no? The protesters are almost certain to reject the idea, but if you’re down by three touchdowns with a minute to play, why not go for the end zone and see what happens? Maybe enough of them will find this a palatable compromise that the crowds will shrink and eventually lose steam. Four: He wanted to screw Obama after the U.S. started nudging him towards the exit. Mubarak surely understands that The One is in a bind, not wanting to shove him too hard lest the Saudis and Jordanians get even more nervous about the White House’s commitment to them. Now that he’s offered a “reasonable solution” — one which follows the advice leaked by the White House to the press — isn’t Obama required to support him?

“I have spent enough time serving Egypt,” he said.

Earlier, President Barack Obama told the Egyptian leader through a special envoy not to run again, according to American diplomats…

“In all sincerity, regardless of the current circumstances, I never intended to be a candidate for another term,” Mubarak said…

“This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil,” he said.

He also said pledged to implement a series of reforms, including calling on the judiciary to combat corruption, one of the complaints of protesters…

Mubarak wanted to stay in office and continue to make small changes, touting them as progress, a senior U.S. official told NBC News, but [White House envoy Frank] Wisner reinforced the point that the Egyptian president cannot hold on until the next election.

That last bit jibes with what Jackson Diehl of WaPo claimed earlier on Twitter, that Mubarak flatly told Wisner that he won’t quit. A really good question posed by Max Boot at Commentary: Why on earth did Obama urge Mubarak to declare he won’t run again rather than to leave ASAP? I get that the White House is trying to signal to other Arab regimes that we won’t turn on an ally completely, even under intense pressure, but no one seriously believes this new proposal will satisfy the protesters. If Mubarak ends up being deposed or fleeing in terror in the next few days anyway, it’ll make Obama’s demand look lame and ridiculous. Boot:

[D]oes Obama really think that the vast throngs filling the streets of Cairo will stand for Mubarak remaining in office until September? That would have been a good demand to deliver a few months, weeks, or even days ago. Now it’s been overtaken by events. Clearly nothing will satisfy the demonstrators other than Mubarak’s removal from office.

The question is what comes next: who makes up the transitional government? One hopes that, behind the scenes, this question is consuming the administration and its best experts on Egypt, and that they are fruitfully engaging not only with the opposition but also with the army, which remains the most powerful power broker in the country. Liberal democrats are in a race with the Muslim Brotherhood to control Egypt’s destiny. We need to help them. We need to get ahead of the curve. For once.

Protest organizers met yesterday and vowed that they’d make no concessions in negotiating with new VP Omar Suleiman until Mubarak was gone, and if you believe the Muslim Brotherhood, there are already talks between the military and the opposition to push him out. Since the army’s sworn not to use force against the protesters and the Egyptian economy is crumbling from eight days of paralysis, I assume there are no options left realistically except a military coup sooner rather than later followed by some sort of transitional power-sharing agreement between Suleiman and the opposition. ElBaradei’s allies claim he’s been talking to the army too about possibly being named interim president.

Exit question: What’s our next move? Start pushing Mubarak to enact specific reforms, and if he doesn’t, use that as a pretext to formally abandon him? Knowing he’s a dead man walking, the White House must be desperate for reasons to dump this guy quickly and salvage whatever tiny bit of goodwill still remains among protesters. Presumably, unless he does everything we ask of him going forward, there’s going to be some sort of reckoning.

Update: Bad moon rising: Al Jazeera English is reporting clashes between pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters in Alexandria, with shots being fired. The hot rumor over the weekend was that Mubarak had ordered state police off the street in hopes that the resulting chaos would keep protesters at home this week. That didn’t happen, so maybe we’re at stage two of that strategy now — out-and-out attacks on protesters, with the army forced to choose between standing by or firing on the instigators.

Or maybe Mubarak has nothing to do with this and it’s just tensions in the street boiling over. Stay tuned.

Update: We won’t have to wait long to find out whether the Mubarak “I’m staying until elections” plan is still acceptable to Obama. Tapper’s reporting on Twitter that he’ll speak within the next hour or so.

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Thank goodness we have a President with years and years of experience at the national level to be exposed to tough international problems with huge ramifications for our national security. We can solve this by sending in the SEIU, right?

“This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil,” he said.
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Al Jazeera is stuck,on the talk’n point,mmmmm.

This really isn’t much different than your average power struggle at any corporation or university. Motives and agendas may be a little more obvious here, but I’d say levels of bloodthirstiness, ruthlessness, and sociopathic crazy amongst the players is pretty similar.

I once had a computer game called ‘Junta’ or ‘Banana Republic’, I can’t remember exactly which. In the game you were a tin pot dictator of an island “somewhere”. Anyway, there were many ways to lose but the only way to win was to leave the island in social and economic tatters while you escape the country with suitcases full of money.

The White House probably wrote his speech hoping to buy time to pick a new candidate. Short of that they know that the Muslim Brotherhood is taking over. Jordan is next. I don’t think it is a coincidence that there are no protests in countries like Libya, Syria and Sudan to name a few because the Brotherhood has chosen to leave these countries alone because they already hate the West. Bin Laden long ago predicted that they would bring down all countries with Western aspirations in the Middle East. He continues to achieve his goals. The Saudis must be freaking out with their large Shia population controlled by Iran.

When all you have is a crap sandwich in front of you, then pontificate heavily on the glories of yummy sandwiches. Proclaim liberty, democratic government, republics, rights yada yada yada until someone else eats the crap sandwich.

People were taking very seriously the military’s promise not to fire on protesters. But as I pointed out yesterday, the statement was ambiguous. They promised not to fire on protesters because peaceful protests are legitimate.

But does that change if the protests become violent? Or if the crowds move to forcefully remove Mubarak? Is the military only willing to avoid cracking down on the people so long as they’re peaceful, but will open fire if they become violent? There was wiggle room in the statement.

Al-Jazeera had a live interview with one of the protesters in Cairo, who made an important point: Mubarak’s vow to stay on through September was unpopular with the protesters, but will likely be received more favorably by the 70 million or so Egyptians who are not participating in the protests.

But among the details distinguishing these marchers — including a higher degree of organization and, at least for now, no major clashes — was the preponderance of pink. Headbands, sashes, banners of cloth or paper, even the ink of the blaring slogans were a delicate pastel pink.

Thank goodness we have a President with years and years of experience at the national level to be exposed to tough international problems with huge ramifications for our national security. We can solve this by sending in the SEIU, right?
trubble on February 1, 2011 at 5:15 PM

I thought that was what Biden was for? You know his vast amount of foreign policy cred and gravitas. Gird your loins!

1. Al Jazeera is an instigator and fomentor of all this.
2. Mubarak is very sick (physically).
3. He was never going to run for re-election; he was grooming his son to run.
4. This was all triggered by the Hezbollah coup in Lebanon orchestrated by Iran. Iran is seeing its chance to make its move while Barack HUSSEIN Obama is in his last 2 years in office.
5. US next move should be finding western leaning opposition members to support.
6. US should be pushing Saudi Arabia to exert more influence against Iran or they will be next.

This Mubarak spin is second class junk spin compared to the spin on one of Harry Reid’s relatives…

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Former House Speaker and NC SPIN panelist Joe Mavretic sent this.

A professional genealogy researcher in southern California was doing some personal work on her own family tree. She discovered that Harry Reid`s great-great uncle, Remus Reid, was hanged for horse stealing and train robbery in Montana in 1889. The researcher and Harry Reid share this common ancestor. The only known photograph of Remus shows him standing on the gallows in Montana territory.

On the back of the picture obtained during research is this inscription: `Remus Reid, horse thief, sent to Montana Territorial Prison 1885, escaped 1887, robbed the Montana Flyer six times. Caught by Pinkerton detectives, convicted and hanged in 1889.`

The researcher e-mailed Congressman Harry Reid for information about their great-great uncle. Believe it or not, Harry Reid`s staff sent back the following biographical sketch for her genealogy research: `Remus Reid was a famous cowboy in the Montana Territory. His business empire grew to include acquisition of valuable equestrian assets and intimate dealings with the Montana railroad. Beginning in 1883, he devoted several years of his life to government service, finally taking leave to resume his dealings with the railroad.

In 1887, he was a key player in a vital investigation run by the renowned Pinkerton Detective Agency. In 1889, Remus passed away during an important civic function held in his honor when the platform upon which he was standing collapsed.`