RealClearPolitics Politics Nation Blog

LA 04: Dueling Polls

Going through poll withdrawal? Get your daily fix with two new polls out of Louisiana's hotly contested Fourth Congressional District, where both parties show their candidates leading the race to replace outgoing GOP Rep. Jim McCrery.

Democratic candidate Paul Carmouche, the Caddo District Attorney, leads his own poll, conducted by The Kitchens Group 11/18-19 among 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Carmouche and former Webster Parish Coroner John Fleming were tested, along with independent candidates Chester "Catfish" Kelley and Gerard Bowen.

Not to be outdone, Fleming has his own poll showing him with a small lead. The Public Opinion Strategies poll was conducted 11/17-18 among 400 likely voters for an identical 4.9% margin of error. Fleming and Carmouche were tested.

General Election Matchup
Fleming.............43
Carmouche.......42

The divergent results are interesting especially given the district's high African American population. The Democratic poll included a sample of just 22% African American voters, while the Republican poll included a sample assuming 30% black turnout. One-third of district residents are black.

Though it is ordinarily heavily-Republican territory, a high African American turnout could put Carmouche, whose Caddo Parish is at the heart of the Shreveport-based district, over the top.