At the rate players are dropping this preseason, it may be next
to impossible to put together any kind of draft board that is
relevant for more than a day, much less a week. (Thankfully, I’ll
get three shots at this…)

Injuries had already claimed Percy
Harvin, Jeremy
Maclin, Danario
Alexander and Dennis
Pitta prior to end of last weekend – four players that almost
certainly would have found their way inside the top 100 or so
players in just about every draft. On Monday, Jamaal
Charles gave everyone a scare when he suffered what is being
called a “foot strain”. Later that same night, the San Diego Chargers
took their second hit at the receiver position in a week when
Malcom
Floyd got tangled up with CB Shareece Wright in practice.
An MRI revealed he sprained his right knee, which is often the
initial diagnosis when a player tears his ACL. While Floyd’s potential
season-ending injury doesn’t mean much to the average fantasy
owner, any potential long-term injury to Charles sure does. The
point is that days like Monday serve as a reminder the NFL’s news
cycle rarely ever stops, which illustrates the importance of owners
using tools such as Twitter during a draft to ensure they are
as informed as every other owner in the draft room.

I offer my sympathies to any and all owners that have already
participated in drafts in which they drafted one or more of the
aforementioned players, but avoiding the first wave of injuries
and gaining clarity on position battles are the main reasons why
it is smart to wait at least another week or two to draft. My
first draft of consequence takes place on Thursday when I participate
in an experts’ auction draft, but I’ve always felt
it is at least one week too early every season. With that said,
I will not complain about free “practice” against
industry experts at any point of the preseason using the method
of drafting I will be utilizing for some of my big money leagues.
It’s another advantage I’ll have over the rest of
my competition in a couple of weeks and, just as importantly,
I have a title to defend.

Loyal readers already know my stance on the importance of value
when it comes to drafting, but most fantasy analysts fail to quantify
it. As it relates to my Big Boards, I define "value"
using the VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) concept for a two-RB,
three-WR league, which essentially allows me to compare apples
and oranges. At QB and TE, the value reflects the standard deviation
from the 12th-ranked player at the position – the last starting-caliber
player at the position. At RB, the value reflects the standard
deviation from the 24th-ranked player at the position and, at
WR, the 36th-ranked player. As I have mentioned many times before
over the years, "value" in drafting is key. Need has
to outweigh value on occasion, but for the most part, it can't
hurt to take the best player left on the board. Understanding
the delicate balance of realizing a player is too good to pass
up and knowing exactly when the last spot in your likely Week
1 starting lineup needs to be filled often separates the great
drafters from the very good ones.

Beyond using “value” to ease the process of setting
up a draft board, analyzing the playoff matchups and common sense
has to enter into the conversation as well. A perfect example
of the latter is Calvin Johnson, whose PPR value should make him
the top player on my board. While Johnson certainly brings a huge
advantage to his fantasy teams almost every week, no number cannot
account for the economic principle of “opportunity cost”
– the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when
one alternative is chosen – in real-time when owners pass
on an elite running back to draft Johnson. A simple number value
also cannot account for the drastic falloff in value at running
back after the established top options are drafted, usually by
the end of the first round. Smart drafting also involves supply
versus demand. Every year, there are not nearly enough quality
running backs to occupy 24 starting spots in 12-team leagues,
but there are usually at least 36 receivers that are worthy starters.

Before I get to the boards, I would like to remind readers about
a few key points about the Big Boards:

1) They are not going to look like many other draft boards you
see. My method of evaluating fantasy players relies heavily on
projected consistency and matchups, not overall fantasy point
total projections. All too often, fantasy owners and even the
so-called "experts" get hung up by the final numbers.
Don't get me wrong, I want all my players to have 300+ points
at the end of the season. But as the old saying goes, "It's
not about the destination, it's about the journey"; if my
RB1 gives me seven spectacular performances along with six duds
during the regular season, there's a fairly decent chance I may
end up 7-6. I don’t want that and neither should you.

2) I will push a player down my
board if feel he is a health risk or if I simply don’t/can’t
trust him. I will put more stock into this area
in 2013 than I ever have. If you take the time to break down
each position I provide below, you will notice that I don’t
follow the point totals or averages to a tee. (Think of the average
and value I provide for each player as a starting point for my
rankings.) Outside of trust issues, I will push a player down
my board – despite a higher average or overall point total
– if I believe he will simply be less consistent throughout
the season or if his playoff schedule appears treacherous.

3) Much like last season, I want to provide readers with a clear
risk sign. If a player is a moderate risk – be it due to
holdout, injury, off-field, etc. – you will see a
next his name. If I feel a player is a severe risk, your will
see a
next to his name. While I feel like I have accounted for each
player’s “risk” with their spot on the Big Board,
you may be more or less inclined to deal with that risk than I
am. This is just another way of helping you take a look at the
board and quickly identifying which players stand a good chance
to frustrate you at some point this season.

Note: At least
for this first set of Big Boards, I have chosen to stop at 150
players. Next week, I will add the kickers and defenses while
also expanding the number of ranked players. In the final set
of Big Boards in two weeks, I will add even more players.

Let’s revisit the color-coding system before we start:

Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.

White – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers..

***In addition to discussing value above, there is one other note
regarding the numbers in the “value” column: numbers
that are bolded reflect positive values while the italicized numbers
are essentially negative. (For the more statistically-inclined,
the former values are on the right side of the bell curve while
the latter values are on the left side.)

Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

One final note:Over the next
week, I will be “quality controlling” my projections
(basically double-checking my numbers, such as not having one
defense projected to intercept 40 passes while another has just
five), so this week’s Big Boards may look dramatically different
– particularly at the bottom – in two weeks than they
currently do. As with all things that are worth doing, this process
takes time and needs to be constantly revised as more information
about depth charts and injuries becomes available. What I can
assure you is that my final set of Big Boards will be one of the
most comprehensive draft-day tools anyone will have at their disposal.

Top 25: Foster’s continued
absence is slightly concerning at this point, but owners need to
remember that it is hardly fair to suggest Foster is on the verge
of breaking down and Peterson is “safe” simply because
he is a freak of nature. No one should dismiss Foster’s potential
for injury after three heavy-workload seasons, but he appeared to
be in prime form during the playoffs against two top-12 rush defenses
despite a career high in carries, a poor right side of the offensive
line and limited help from the passing game. Peterson is almost
1 1/2 years older and has 754 more regular-season touches than Foster,
so the physical-freak argument should only carry so much weight.
With that said, they are both special players and that is why they
are included in the top five.

Although Morris and Lynch could each challenge for the league
lead in rushing touchdowns again, their lack of involvement in
the passing game makes them slightly less consistent than most
of their higher-rated contemporaries. Owners will likely question
Graham’s inclusion in the top 15, but his value actually
suggests he could/should go higher. The fourth-year tight end
is essentially a receiver at a position in which there are no
other healthy elite options. Given the depth at receiver and quarterback,
owners should view Graham as the second-best fantasy receiver
– in regards to the value he brings to a team. As such,
he is a savvy second-round pick for those owners who feel the
quality of running backs are not any greater in the second round
than they are in the third or early fourth. No other player in
fantasy offers more of an advantage at his position each week
than Graham.

26-50: In my opinion, four
of the seven backs I have clustered from 29-42 are almost impossible
to rank. Gore has arguably the best run-blocking line in the league
in front of him and a team that is very committed to the rushing
attack, but he is 30 and could be given the Michael Turner “treatment”
(as in he will be saved for the second half of the season). Jones-Drew
is the one player of the bunch I want to rank higher, but I’ll
play it safe with him for now until I actually see him run again.
Of the backs in this group, MJD is the only one that I feel calling
a second-round value if he truly is as healthy as he is letting
on publicly. McFadden clearly has the highest upside if he plays
16 games, but we all know by now that has little chance of happening.
He doesn’t have much of a supporting cast either, which
makes it a situation I will try to avoid unless I can land him
as a flex option. Wilson could easily be the next Chris Johnson
(in terms of his ability to break off big runs routinely), but
I have long had issues with choosing running backs that don’t
pass block well or get goal-line carries. Unfortunately for the
second-year back, both areas are working against him at the moment.

Murray could have easily been included in the above group, but
I find myself less concerned about him than the other backs. Although
the offensive line will continue to be a work in progress, his
present and future owners have to be pleased with the Cowboys’
renewed emphasis on the rushing attack in the preseason. Although
his 50-60 catch potential doesn’t mean as much in standard
leagues, it doesn’t take away the extra 300-500 receiving
yards he can collect as a result. Murray is an upright runner
who will probably always be more susceptible to injury than most
backs, but more outside and zone runs (such as the ones I have
seen through the team’s two exhibition games) could go a
long way in lessening the number of times he has to take a direct
shot from a linebacker in the hole. His injury history makes him
a RB2 in fantasy, but he has top-10 RB upside if 2013 is the season
he plays all 16 games. Savvy owners need to remember Lance Dunbar,
who has looked very good thus far and could be close to solidifying
his status as Murray’s handcuff.

51-100: Few teams are playing
the misinformation game in the backfield better than Green Bay
this summer. HC Mike McCarthy stated last week he was happy to
see DuJuan Harris return to practice because he still viewed Harris
as the starter. James Starks started the preseason opener and
is reportedly having an “outstanding” camp. Johnathan
Franklin either is the clear-cut passing-down back or he’s
not, depending on the source. Alex Green handled first-team snaps
at one point last week, only to hear he is the subject of trade
talks a few days later. And then there is Lacy, who was drafted
to be the physical presence this offense needs. IF Lacy gets the
same kind of workload Ryan Grant did in his heyday and IF he can
stay healthy (two huge question marks), then Lacy is probably
a second-round value with double-digit touchdown potential. However,
it should come as no big mystery why he is ranked as a fifth-round
value here – he’s currently nursing a hamstring injury
and is unlikely to receive a lot of work in the passing game.

I’ll devote the rest of this section to two players that
have a shot to skyrocket up both boards in the coming weeks: DeSean
Jackson and DeAngelo Williams. When I initially did the Eagles’
projections, Nick Foles seemed to be in line for the starting
quarterback job and Jeremy Maclin was still healthy. Now, Michael
Vick looks to have the edge as the signal-caller, the receiver
corps has been decimated and Jackson appears reinvigorated. Projecting
Jackson will be much easier once Philadelphia makes a call at
quarterback, but it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in
which the Eagles’ top receiver – with a clear mind
– revisits the same kind of fantasy value he enjoyed in
2008 and 2009 as the team’s only established threat at receiver.
Williams is in a similar boat from the standpoint he is in position
to take advantage of a fallen teammate. Stewart is still a question
mark with little information as to when he will return after undergoing
offseason surgery on both ankles. Stewart is the more-talented
back, but real-life battles aren’t always determined by
natural ability. Carolina looks to be serious about re-establishing
the run while reducing the amount of the ground game Newton has
to carry himself. In short, if Stewart isn’t around, there’s
a very good chance Williams could establish sneaky RB3 value in
his absence.

101-150: Ballard isn’t
a special player by any stretch, but he doesn’t get near
enough credit. While Luck was generating headlines with his stellar
play in 2012, Ballard was averaging 4.1 YPC over the second half
of the season behind a below-average run-blocking line on a team
that wasn’t committed to running the ball. The addition
of Bradshaw certainly curbs any immediate upside he brought to
the new offense – which is emphasizing the rushing attack
– but owners have to know that chronic foot injuries are
among the worst injuries a running back can have – making
the ex-Giant a severe risk. Few players have more variance between
their fantasy ceiling and floor than Ballard in 2013, with his
downside being about 500 rushing yards in a strict backup role
and his upside over 1,000 yards. The likelihood, however, is that
Bradshaw will be kept on a 12-15 touch/game count, making both
players fantasy RB3s. Ballard will likely be a viable low-end
RB2 in the 2-4 games Bradshaw will probably miss, which is enough
to make him a solid fantasy RB4 option.

Two players I will almost certainly draft on at least half of
my teams are Randle and Harvin. While Randle appears to have his
path blocked by Nicks and Cruz, the former’s susceptibility to
injury is no secret. Randle is not a player owners should draft
as a player that should contribute to fantasy teams immediately,
but rather as an investment that can pay off in a big way as a
fantasy starter or trade bait if Nicks misses a handful of games
again this season. Harvin appears to be a longshot at best given
his initial 11-16 week timetable following hip surgery, but consider
him a long-term investment – especially in leagues that have an
IR spot. If Harvin can begin practice around Thanksgiving – which
would be on the long end of his projected recovery – then he is
a player that could be a huge asset just in time for the fantasy
playoffs. The very reason he is ranked as the 49th receiver is
because he makes the perfect WR5. If that sounds crazy, consider
how many players ranked below him – at any position – could have
the same kind of potential impact he should have during the fantasy
postseason.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today
since 2006 and appeared in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview
magazine in 2010 and 2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long,
pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday this past
season. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on
Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive” and for 106.7 The
Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.