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After last years redistricting process in which Ohio lost two congressional seats, a showdown was set up in the 16th congressional district. Longtime liberal and Pelosi puppet Betty Sutton was drawn into the same district as Jim Renacci, a self-made businessman serving his freshman term in Congress.

Sutton was elected to the old 13th district seat formerly held by Sherrod Brown, after he left it to join the Senate. This was a very blue district, and Betty Sutton is basically a female clone of Sherrod. This ad from the Congressional Leadership Fund highlights her left-wing voting record.

While some on the left have deluded themselves into believing that Renacci is losing the race, a new poll suggest just the opposite. From Wes Anderson with OnMessage Inc:The following survey was conducted by OnMessage Inc. in Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. Telephone interviews were conducted October 25, 2012. This survey consists of 400 likely general election voters and was stratified by county to reflect historic voter trends. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 4.9%.Bottom-line: Heading into the home stretch, this race is trending significantly toward Renacci. The ballot now stands at 51% for Jim Renacci to 41% for Betty Sutton. Only 7% of the electorate is still undecided.

Key Findings

The Presidential ballot is 50% Romney and 43% Obama with only 6% undecided. At this late point in the race, the 16th will most likely go for Governor Romney on Election Day by four or five points. We’ve seen a steady trend line of improvement for Romney in this district since the first presidential debate in early October.

That brings us to the ballot which is 51% Renacci to 41% Sutton with 7% undecided and 1% other. Keep in mind that our methodology is designed to capture those voters who have already cast a ballot as well as those likely voters who have yet to vote.

When we look at the ballot by partisanship we find an intensity gap favoring Renacci. Renacci is currently receiving the support of 91% of Republicans while Sutton is garnering just 78% of Democrats.

Independents currently break for Renacci 48% to 26% with 26% undecided.

By vote behavior (how do you usually vote) Renacci’s advantage with voters in the middle is even greater. Among Ticketsplitters (those who say they vote for both a mix of Democrats and Republicans) the ballot stands at 51% Renacci to just 35% Sutton.

Northeast Ohio conservatives will be thrilled to see Betty Sutton voted out of Congress.

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I was born and raised in Ohio. After growing up in the Columbus area, I moved to Cleveland to study at Case Western Reserve University, and have lived in Northeast Ohio ever since. I live in Wellington with my wife and son. I work in the private sector and have never worked in the political field.

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Third Base Politics is an Ohio-centric conservative blog that has been featured at Hot Air, National Review, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Michelle Malkin, and Ace of Spades, among others.