EURUSD 19th April, 2018

The euro moved toward the downside and has come very close to our first target. It’s time to pay attention, because the sideways consolidation which began on February 16 is about to complete its course.

I’ve updated the daily chart with an initial target for the imminent rally, while the hourly charts still track the intraday price developments. I’m also leaning more in favor of the alternate hourly count, since it shows better wave relationships in terms of both time and price.

Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to make one final move downward to reach between 1.2322 and 1.2315, while it remains above 1.2215 and below 1.2413. A break above 1.2413 should see price rallying toward 1.2645.

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 19th April, 2018. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This main daily count sees that the euro is still moving upward in maroon wave B, which is forming an expanded flat labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C), where black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Blue wave 5 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Pink wave iv is forming a contracting triangle labeled green waves (a) through (e). It should find support at or above 1.2235.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving toward the upside in pink wave v to complete blue wave 5, and therefore black wave (C), and therefore maroon wave B. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.2476.

At 1.2645 maroon wave B would retrace 61.8% of maroon wave A.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2215 as green wave (e) of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of green wave (d).

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that green wave (d) is forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2215 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.2413 as aqua wave (2) may not move beyond the start of aqua wave (1).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate hourly count sees that green wave (d) is complete and that green wave (e) is now unfolding.

The observant eye will notice an overlap between violet waves 4 and 1. Normally, this shouldn’t happen in an impulse. However, it’s only a 4-pip overlap that was very quickly retraced in a spike of volatility, all happening within a terminal impulse, at the end of a zigzag, which is itself the final wave of a triangle at the end of a fourth wave. Under all these circumstances, I’m comfortable allowing for a 4-pip overlap.

This count expects the euro to make one final move toward the downside in orange wave c to complete green wave (e), and therefore pink wave iv.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.2215 as green wave (e) of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of green wave (d). It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.2413 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.

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Comments

Hi there, i am new to your service. I want to know based on your analysis, how do i set up my stop loss ? i can see TP 1 and TP2 which is target 1 and 2, but stop loss is not specified, how do i set or use your recommended your stop losses. ? please advice. also advice wher i can learn your way of marking EW
on charts? thanks. awaiting your reply.

The “invalidation points” are usually the safest stop-loss points under a given wave analysis. Sometimes, however, the invalidation point is too far away from the price action to provide a practical reward-to-risk ratio. In these situations, I think some of the strategies you’ll find in the Quick Start Guide can be helpful.

So please go ahead and check out the guide and, if you still have questions, you’re always welcome to shoot me a line 🙂

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