Captain Ed is a father and grandfather living in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, a native Californian who moved to the North Star State because of the weather. He lives with his wife Marcia, also known as the First Mate, their two dogs, and frequently watch their granddaughter Kayla, whom Captain Ed calls The Little Admiral... [read more]

Pew Research has published its crosstabs for the poll that shows the Republicans tightening up the race, which I linked last night. The internals deliver even more bad news to the Democrats, as significant leads in several demographic categories have been cut drastically or wiped out entirely.

The last Pew Research poll was taken in early October. In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among all whites went from +5 Democrats to +5 GOP, a ten-point swing. White females had supported Democrats by a 15-point margin and a majority (55-40), but now give the GOP a 2-point lead. The Democrats have also lost the middle class, a big problem in this election.

Households earning between $50K-$75K and $30K-$50K have both slipped to the GOP. The former switched from a 14-point margin for the Democrats to an eight-point Republican lead, while the latter has had an even more dramatic shift. Those earners had favored Democrats by 22 points, but now go Republican by 3. The Democrats even lost the tie they had with earners above $75K, and now trail there by seven. They did extend their margin for earners below $30K from 25 points to 30.

In the religious demographics, where the Democrats have tried mightily to find some traction, they also have problems. They held a thin lead (5 points) among all Protestants, but now trail by 9. Their ten-point lead among white mainline Protestants has dissipated into a tie. They lead among all Catholic, having lost three points off of an eight-point lead, but non-Hispanic Catholics now favor the GOP by 5 points, a ten-point shift.

Even in areas where Democrats maintained their leads, they have cause for some nail-biting. They lost part of their margin among self-described moderates, going from a whopping 44 points to 27. They had led in all regions of the country a month ago, but now have lost the South altogether in a 16-point shift, and a 26-point gap in the Northeast has narrowed to nine points -- a remarkable comeback for Republicans in a liberal stronghold. The GOP also cut the Democratic lead among urban voters from 32 points to 10.

The theme of this poll is the attack on Democratic gains in this election cycle. The GOP has rolled back the Democratic intrusion onto Republican demographics, which leaves the field looking similar to 2004 and 2002. This race may hold some very unpleasant surprises for the Democrats in the House races if these numbers hold up or continue to erode over the next 40 hours.

UPDATE: I started getting e-mails from CQ readers telling me that Rush Limbaugh featured this blog post on the air today, and that Tony Snow had mentioned it during Rush's interview as well. Read the transcript here:

RUSH: Well, you look like you are, and that's infectious in its own way for audience people who watch you and have a chance to hear what you're saying. Let's talk about these polls tightening.

SNOW: Yeah.

RUSH: I have been suspicious of polls for a long time in the sense that I believe news organizations use them to make news that reflects their editorial pages, and the same with the editorial opinion of broadcast network people, and like the Pew poll internals show massive shifts in 30 days of public opinion. One of the things in the Pew poll is that the Democrats have lost all white voters. They've lost women and they've lost --

SNOW: They've lost men. They've lost women. Absolutely right, and I'm glad you pointed that out. Captain Ed Morrissey was one of the guys -- I don't know if you saw that this morning, but he was going through them. There have been really big shifts going on, and I think it's kind of the natural by-product that people really taking a look at what Democrats are doing, which is literally running around and heckling the president rather than trying to think seriously about how to deal with Osama bin Laden or a global war on terror. They're certainly not saying anything constructive about the economy -- and when you come to an election, when the very big issue is Iraq and the other side really doesn't have anything to say about it.

I'm thrilled for the notice, and I certainly thank Tony Snow and Rush Limbaugh for picking up the story. I think this tells volumes about the creakiness of the Democratic "wave" tomorrow. Hugh Hewitt has more from Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman on the same subject. And Newsbeat1 has more from Rush on this post.

» Where Are We Nationally from The Strata-Sphere
I am awaiting the final flurry of House Polls at RCP before I do my final calls today. Not to mention getting some work done (on that note, I will be in meetings all morning tomorrow so I will be posting in the afternoon at the earlies). But let̵... [Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 9:36 AM

» Musing on the Election from Musing Minds
We here at Musing Minds are quite optimistic about the results of tomorrow’s elections. We are “bucking the trend” of the analysts. We also take polls with a large grain of salt because the only poll that counts is the one with no mar... [Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 9:58 AM

» Musing on the Election from Musing Minds
We here at Musing Minds are quite optimistic about the results of tomorrow’s elections. We are “bucking the trend” of the analysts. We also take polls with a large grain of salt because the only poll that counts is the one with no mar... [Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 9:58 AM

» Poll-imania from Riehl World View
Captain's Quarters takes a closer look at the internals of the Pew Poll and sees several reasons to smile:The last Pew Research poll was taken in early October. In a month, the Democrats have lost non-minorities altogether. The gap among [Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 10:18 AM

» GOP Has The Momentum from Iowa Voice
I posted a little about a generic poll yesteday while guest-blogging on Sister Toldjah, and since that time a couple more polls have been released that show the trend: that the GOP is closing the gap and could bust the Democrats' hope of taking control.
[Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 12:04 PM

» Heartening news in the polls from Don't Go Into The Light
The latest Pew poll is generating a lot of discussion. Ken Mehlman is issuing press releases. Rush Limbaugh even mentioned Captain Ed's analysis on the air a little while ago. I don't know if the polls are accurate, just as... [Read More]

Tracked on November 6, 2006 1:00 PM

» We have indeed entered a new era of communication from Strange Women Lying in Ponds
I remember Captain Ed when he and I were blog babies. Now Ed's all grown up and counts Tony Snow and Rush Limbaugh among his readers. Think about that for a minute. A regular citizen can now publish his thoughts [Read More]