43 posts from August 2014

August 31, 2014

I normally don't issue a fall outlook, but many of you have been trying to press the thoughts out of me. So I caved.

NOTE:I will issue my usual disclaimers here. These are just my thoughts about the weather pattern ahead. Forecasting beyond 5 days is very difficult, but the goal is always to learn from previous years to identify patterns to be able to extend higher confidence in long term forecasting. So please read with caution....and enjoy!

Meteorologists use these dates based on average highs. However, most of us use the astronomical dates. The sun crosses the equator on September 22nd this year. That is when most of us will consider that the first day of FALL.

DATES:Autumnal Equinox (FALL): Monday, September 22 at 10:29 pm EDT.We set our clocks BACK one hour Sunday, November 2.

THOUGHTS:

Forecasting for the autumn season is challenging as anytime you are dealing with changing seasons---the wide variance of weather can really skew the overall averages.

Before we look ahead...I wanted to look back.

Highlights of Fall 2013;

- Last 90 degree day was on 9/11- Average temps through mid October- First frost/freeze took place at once on October 25th (30°)- First trace of snow took place the day before on October 24th.- Strong low pressure kicked up the winds/rain and forced many Halloween events to be cancelled.- First measurable snow took place on November 12th (.3")- Other light snow showers/cold snaps through the end of the month.

So for this forecast I am going to look at the months of September/October/November.

OTHER FALL NOTABLES:Normal First Frost: October 25th Earliest: September 25 Latest: November 23

Normal First Freeze: November 1st Earliest: October 3 Latest: November 28

Normal first snow: Trace: November 15 Earliest Ever: October 101/10”+: December 7 Earliest Ever: October 19

MODELS:We do have some decent model data that will take us into the middle of September.

EURO has the ability to sum it up into one thought. You can see how it is aiming more toward a ridge of the east...trough west. Warm pattern.

CANDAIAN breaks it up into the various model thoughts for the middle of the month. You can see many support warm in the east, with a few memeber showing a cooler look.

GFS is similar with a mix of warm/cool.

The JAMSTEC agency (Japan's weather model) has a good record with long term thoughts. It also shows a warm period for the fall in our area. (Note: it shows a very cold flip in December FYI)

So when we look at these models...you need to realize that several of the models were showing ABOVE normal temperatures. Normal for our area by mid September will be about 82°. So highs in the mid 80s would push us in the above category. That is fairly easy to do with this pattern we are in right now.

But when we look beyond that...the signals do get mixed.

CFS model can through out ideas:

Sept Oct Nov

Warm warm warm. But this model has some reliability issues...so it is used with caution. It has been gun-ho about a warm fall and even winter for our area. So it will be an interesting model to track and grade later.

To me, the biggest issue looks to be the oceans yet again. We are seeing a similar tropical season to last year. We have witnessed a decent polar low over Canada most of the summer. So all seems to be lining up with a similar setup to last fall. Warm start ...then a big flip.

The different this year that could change that idea...would be El Nino. But not just any El Nino, but an ModokiEl Nino.

This is when the central/western Pacific Ocean waters warm...while the eastern region is cooler. We are already seeing that now with the current water temperatures:

JAMSTEC has produced maps to show the impacts. First, this is the difference in warm water locations in the Pacific between the 2 types of El Ninos:

And their temperature/precipitation differences for the fall/early winter: More extreme in the warm/cold areas.

We usually see a strong sign that this type of El Nino is developing when tropical system aim more toward the eastern U-S for landfalls. We have yet to see this. So this is still in the "maybe" column for a possible catalyst for the autumn season.

FORECAST:

Overall, I am going with a warm pattern for the next several weeks. The pattern does open us up to a tropical attack from the Gulf of Mexico. That is still on the table through early October. Just like last year, I do think we will see a "flip" to colder during the season. Last year it was October 24th. I think it may be later this year. November is what I am aiming for right now. At that point, any El Nino event will be much clearer. December does look cold. I see signs it could rival 2000 and 2004. But that is part of the winter forecast...not my fall forecast :) So I will wait on those thoughts for awhile.

August 30, 2014

A few downpours are tracking through the northwestern portion of our viewing area now and will continue to do so through the morning. By this afternoon scattered storms will overspread the entire area before heavy rains set in this evening and overnight. We could pick up 1-2" of rainfall by tomorrow with isolated 2"+ spots. High temperatures will struggle to make it into the lower 80s. Things will warm up for the rest of next week though. More details in the video below!

August 29, 2014

We are tracking several rain chances over the next few days. Unfortunately, this will have a big impact on your outdoor plans this holiday weekend. We are dry as of 10:00am Friday, but with temperatures in the 90s today and a warm front in the region a few thunderstorms are likely throughout the day today and into tonight. The next 24 hours showcases the lesser amounts of rain compared to what we'll see later on in the weekend. Here's a sneak peak at what I'm working on for Wave 3 News Midday at 11am. See you on air. - Lauren

August 28, 2014

This will be a quick post as I am heading up to Henryville Elementary shortly....

Looking over the morning data....everything seems on track for scattered storms across Kentucky this afternoon.

Latest forecast instability shows the storm zone nicely. Basically the Louisville area and west/south from there. The more north/east you are----they best chance you have to remain storm-free.

We will face a small storm risk tomorrow, too, as a warm front pulls away from the area. There is even a risk for a morning storm with that setup. We will look at that more a bit later.

WEEKEND:NAM/GFS still agree that Sunday will feature the highest rain chance out of Sat/Sun/Mon.

NAM GFS

But they are starting to vary on Saturday on when to start the storms. NAM wants to kick things up in the afternoon. GFS holds off until late night. The plan is to start to ramp rain chances up very low in the morning Saturday...and gradually increase them as we move into Saturday night.

As far as Labor Day...the "gap" between the Sunday system and next Tuesday's system is still showing up on this day. So if that can hold...most of the area will see a dry holiday itself. We will keep an eye on the trends for that one.

I think many of you know where this post is going...but we certainly have some good news on the drought threat front.

Latest numbers in this morning have really cut back on the "abnormally" dry areas of our region. Only Grayson county is listed in that category (you guys were in a "moderate drought" last week).

Indiana is in good shape as well.

Forecast rain amounts from WPC over the next 7 days shows the risk for 1-3" of rain for the area. I am afraid that is underdone based on the pattern that may take shape. That is quite unusual as we we are normally entering our dry season in September.

August 27, 2014

We have a weak cold front that has sagged down into our region today. It is barely crawling, so there isn't much support for widespread activity. However, with the heat/humidity at play so far this afternoon--- a few may pulse upward to warning level for a risk of damaging downburst winds especially. We will track the trends on the radar this afternoon.

LOOKING AHEAD:That very cold front will then turn into a warm front on Thursday and begin its journey back to the north into Friday.

Storm chance is will remain at play Thursday with the boundary around, but storm chances look quite limited on Friday. As a result, we may have to raise the highs even further into the mid 90s. The heat index on Friday may get close to advisory level.

WEEKEND:Good news/bad news here.

We are setting ourselves up for a decent moisture train over the region this weekend.

That will feed a band of showers/storms into our region. How "wide" that band is ...is in question. It appears the main batch will have motion more north than east. So it may take some time to push the main rain band into our area. Current thinking is it will push in near or perhaps well after sunset. This would mean most of Saturday-DAY would be dry/hot.

The bad news, the rain band may take some time to push through on Sunday. So that looks to be the wettest day of the holiday weekend right now.

By Labor Day, we will have a gap. But not much of one. We will have our Sunday system departing to the east...and a cold front moving in from the west. The question here will be how much of a gap?!? That will determine if we can get several hours of dry (yet humid) weather for Labor Day. This one will be tougher to nail down.

The front to the west looks to move in late Monday night into Tuesday.

As it does so...there my be some decent unidirectional shear over the region---so some damaging winds/storms may develop with this front. That will depend on what time it rolls in. But if it turns out to be more Tuesday afternoon---SPC may outlook the area for that low-end threat.

LOOKING WAY AHEAD:We then see signs of the 90s returning that following weekend. I will say the models are struggling with the pattern as there are signs of more "blocking" of the jet stream ahead. So the plan is to trend hotter in the long term, but I would not rule out a significant cool down coming only days after that.

Now, a few questions have been raised since the story aired...and I want to address those.

- The last TOTAL Solar Eclipse that travel one end of the United States to the other was back in 1918. So when the 2017 eclipse takes place---it will have been 99 years! Have there been eclipses that have pass through parts of the country during that time, of course. And some of you may have witnessed them. But to have a long---nationwide eclipse---is indeed rare.

- Why just one point? Wouldn't many be able to see it? Yes, the eclipse path stretches from Seattle to Charleston as mentioned in the story. BUT--- due to the time of day and angle...there will be parts of that path that will see the total darkness "maxed out" more than others...and for a longer duration. The point of greatest duration looks to be close to Carbondale, IL. The point of great eclipse looks to be near Hopkinsville. That is the reason for focusing on that area. It will be the spot of a "full-on" total solar eclipse if you wanted to be there. I will show images below of what it will look like if you plan to stay here at home.

- Why talk about this 3 years in advance? Well, once I got word that hotels were filling up fast and that space was limited, I decided to do an update to the story. It turns out, the city already had a committee and plans were in place. So it was an interesting update to the upcoming event that I wanted to get out there.

- Once in a lifetime? Yet another one is coming after it? Yes, that is the remarkable part. Just 7 years later, another total solar eclipse path will track through our region. The "max" points again will be to our west, but Kentuckiana will once again experience quite the show. The 2024 eclipse does not travel coast to coast however. It travels basically from Mexico into the Great Lakes.

I hope this clears up some of the confusion. It is hard to explain all of the details on TV of course, but the this is a story for those that love science. If you don't care, then you don't have to worry about this :)

Now---having said all of that. We do have several "other" eclipses that will take place before we even get to 2017. In fact, we have 2 coming up THIS OCTOBER!

The first one is a LUNAR Eclipse. This is when the EARTH's umbra (outer edge) actually lines up perfectly to cast a shadow onto the moon. It doesn't turn the moon completely dark as we are not exactly blocking the moon, but the outer layer turns the moon into a "reddish" tint.

A SOLAR Eclipse by the way is when the MOON passes in between the EARTH and SUN. This allows for the moon to "block" the sun from our view.

UPCOMING ECLIPSES

OCTOBER 8 2014-- LUNAR ECLIPSE

This will take place in Louisville just after the 4am hour. The problem for us will be timing. The moon will be lowering in the sky as we approach sunrise. So this will be a quick show for us. We will be battling the angle and the "morning sun" rays. And of course, the weather.

OCTOBER 23 2014 PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE

It means just that, only a part of the sun will "disappear" for this event. This is what it will look like in our area:

Note the time. That will once again put it close to sunset and the sun being low in the sky. So this eclipse will be a brief one. Hopefully you will have a clear sky and flat land to witness it!

We face several more LUNAR and a few PARTIAL solar eclipses over the next couple of years.

AUGUST 21 2017 TOTAL SOLAR ECLIPSE

But, by far, the "biggest show" will be this event. The story covered all of the details...but below is what it will look like in the Louisville area that day:

The more south you travel toward TN, the more of the sun "disappears". The more north, the less.

So there you have it! All of the latest on the eclipses coming our way!

WATERFRONT WEDNESDAY will host Shovels & Rope, The Wild Feathers and Tim Easton this evening. It will be a warm and muggy forecast; however, the storm chances will be going down shortly after the event begins, so we are hopeful to avoid the rain.

The LOUISVILLE BATS start a stretch of home games tomorrow against Toledo. It will certainly feel like baseball weather with the continued heat and humidity. There will be a chance of storms at the start of the game, but storms will diminish as the evening progresses.

The ZOMBIE ATTACK in the Highlands this Friday is the largest Zombie Walk in the WORLD!!! I would assume zombies smell bad anyway, but get ready to sweat through your bandages and zombie makeup with warm temperatures and muggy weather.

The KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS AND BOURBON EXPERIENCE is Saturday and Sunday. As the forecast stands now, storms will move in to the area Saturday night around 7p-9p. The storms should taper off Sunday after 6p. So if you're heading out there on Saturday, plan to get there early before the storms move in.

August 25, 2014

While the heat rages on across our area, the usual folks at the Farmer's Almanac are already issuing their winter thoughts.

This is the overall map idea:

Highlights:

- 75% of the country to experience BELOW normal temperatures- Coldest period the last week of January and first week or two of February- Temperatures as cold as 40 BELOW ZERO across the northern Plains states.- Cold and normal snowfall for our area (normal is 12.5")- Lots of caution regarding El Nino effects