Why the Edmonton Oilers should hesitate to gamble on pricey Craig Anderson of the Ottawa SenatorsBack to video

Here’s how Anderson and Scrivens compared a year ago: Scrivens was in what should be his goaltending prime, as he’s six years younger than Anderson. His two-year deal pays him $2.3 million per year, and last summer he was coming off a season with a .916 save percentage with the Oilers. That’s not a bad save percentage at all for a goalie on a weak team.

Anderson earns $4.2 million with three more years on his deal (until the end of the 2017-18 season) but was coming off a .911 save percentage 2013-14 season for Ottawa.

As a younger goalie on a worse team with a better save percentage and a lower wage on a shorter term, Scrivens looked to be the better bet than Anderson, and that is made all the more clear when you look at the ages of top NHL goalies. Of the 30 goalies who played the most minutes in the NHL this year, only one of them, 36-year-old Roberto Luongo is older than 34-year-old Anderson, with Ryan Miller the same age, 34.

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Goaltending isn’t a job for grey beards in the NHL and that’s what Anderson is getting to be.

That said, there’s no denying he had a strong season in 2014-15, at least when he was healthy. He played 35 games and ranked 7th overall in save percentage with a .923 mark. Not bad at all.

As for Scrivens, he ranked 44th overall, at .890. Terrible.

Just going off last year then, Anderson is the far superior goalie. But there’s one thing to think about here. When it came to facing high-danger scoring chances, Anderson faced a low rate of them, just 19.3 per cent of his total shots. Compare that to Scrivens, who had 23.7 per cent of his shots as high-danger scoring chances, tough shots from close in, as tracked by War-on-Ice.com.

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Of course, you can’t explain away Scrivens’ weak save percentage with this high-danger scoring chances metric, but it does provide some context. Scrivens faced a more difficult quality of shot than did Anderson in Ottawa.

Of the goalies that the Oilers might be interested in, Anderson has consistently faced the lowest quality of shots.

Karri Ramo has for two years running faced a high degree of difficulty in his shots. Ramo was no world-beater when it came to making saves, as you can see from the chart below.

Of the goalies who are on the market and may be of interest to the Oilers, Ramo is near the bottom for overall save percentage in the past two season, though his save percentage in both years is better than Craig Anderson’s in 2013-14.

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Only a year ago, Anderson looked like a fairly bad bet. He now looks like a better one, though if you’re taking into consideration shot quality, age and wage, Eddie Lack, Cam Talbot and maybe Ramo all look like better ones.

If the Oilers needed a goalie for just one year, Anderson might fit the bill, but he’s got three years at a hefty $4.2 million per year on his deal. He will be 35 in 2016-17 and 36 years of age in 2017-18.

Some goalies play well in the NHL at ages 34, 35 and 36, but they are the exception to the rule. If the Oilers picked up Anderson, he would be defying the odds to give them a string of strong seasons.

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Most likely, he’d give the Oilers the kind of OKish-but-only-when-healthy-netminding that an aging, broken down Nikolai Khabibulin gave the team for a few years.

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