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Wednesday, 18 January 2017

Brexit: The Phoney War is over!

“Are
you feeling lucky, punk? Go ahead, make my day!”

Theresa
May, sorry Clint Eastwood, as Dirty Harry

Alphen, Netherlands. 18
January. Theresa May cut an unlikely Dirty
Harry yesterday as she arrived in her tartan pyjamas to give her Global
Britain speech at Lancaster House. That was at least the inference as she set
out her twelve objectives to extricate Britain from the EU. As she spoke she
must have would-be Euro-despot and chief European Parliament negotiator Guy
Vershofstadt in mind. No deal was better than a bad deal for Brexit Britain,
she said, and any attempt to ‘punish’ Britain would be met with a robust
response. Time to dust off the Spitfires? Err, no. The far more sensible Michel
Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, yesterday told a private meeting in
Brussels that there was no intention of ‘punishing’ Britain for leaving the EU.
The aim, he said, was to seek a fair settlement for all. Still, the phoney Brexit
war is now at an end. If May is to realise her ambitious objectives at the very
least London will need to re-discover its long lost strategic mojo.

The speech itself was tinged
at times with a little bit of Thatcher and a little bit of Churchill. Not
surprisingly, many of Britain’s newspapers this morning are making the usual overblown
references to the ferrous female as they do on such occasions. Britain is going
to take back control of its law-making and borders, she said, and forge a new
future as global free trading power. Britain, she said, would leave the single
market and seek only to remain part of the customs union in those sectors where
British industry is already part of an integrated supply chain, such as
aerospace. To be frank, much of the speech was at last a statement of the
bleeding obvious. Britain’s leaving of the single market is a no-brainer as a
state cannot be a member of the single market and curb free movement within the
EU. Indeed, for Brussels to concede one of the four fundamental treaty freedoms
over Brexit would be tantamount to self-harm.

May did succeed in
skilfully taking away much of the EU’s negotiating leverage. The message to the
European Commission was clear; do you really want to deny European democracy,
undermine European security, and further damage Europe’s already vulnerable
economy by attacking Britain for Brexit? Britain, she said, is far too powerful
and important a power to be intimidated. Rather, she called for a new ‘strategic
partnership’ between the EU and Britain to the post-Brexit benefit of all.

The speech was not risk
free. May could only have made such a speech because of three factors that have
changed Britain’s strategic landscape since Brexit. First, the election of
Donald Trump as president of the United States means London suddenly has a
powerful new ally in its Brexit negotiations. Second, in spite of dire warnings
from economists (bloody useless economists) Britain had the fastest growing economy
of all the G7 countries last year. Third, the strategic challenges Europe must
face together mean it would be utter folly to alienate Britain, free Europe’s
strongest intelligence, security and defence actor. As May said, “Britain is
leaving the EU, but not leaving Europe”.

So, all well and good? Yes,
but. It is high time Prime Minister May showed the leadership she showed yesterday
and inject some much needed clarity into the post-Brexit torpor. And yes, she
reminded fellow Europeans that given Britain’s huge trade deficit with the rest
of the EU, and the access to global capital markets London affords, Europe
needs Britain as much as Britain needs Europe (as it does).

May must be both resolute
and careful at one and same time. Britain’s new ‘special relationship’ with
President Trump will come at a price. Forget all the legalistic nonsense about
Britain not being able to do a new trade deal with the Americans until after
Britain has left the EU. Much of that deal can be in place well before Britain
leaves, especially if President Trump decides unilaterally and informally to
treat Britain’s goods and services preferentially. Equally, there is also much
over which London disagrees with the Trump administration. Take NATO. Trump
wants it to focus on counter-terrorism and not Russia, something Britain cannot
and must not accept.

Another challenge will
come from the Scottish Nationalists (SNP), which May must face down. SNP leader
Nicola Sturgeon wakes up every morning with only one thought on her mind; the
destruction of the United Kingdom. Whether it be the EU or some other issue
over which she can feign offence Sturgeon will do all she can to achieve her goal,
because it is her only goal. May needs to point out forcefully and publicly to
Sturgeon the hypocrisy of her position. The latter legitimised the UK-wide EU referendum
by campaigning in it. By so doing she also legitimised the UK-wide result.

However, the main barrier
to the realisation of May’s Global
Britain vision is not in Brussels, Edinburgh, or Washington, it is in
London. It has been fascinating to me
how parts of Whitehall (not all) have raised roadblocks in the way of implementing
Brexit. Almost all of those roadblocks have been procedural, i.e. about Britain’s
inability to manage the process of Brexit. That speaks volumes about Whitehall.
The key to yesterday’s speech was that it focused on power not process. This is
because Britain’s future relationship with the EU will be decided by power not
process. Having surrendered so much power to Brussels over the past forty or so
years, Whitehall does not any longer understand power, its generation or its
application. It will need to re-learn quickly.

Yes, Brexit will be
complicated and yes, if May is to realise her vision she is going to have to
begin the patient process of rebuilding all the competences a state needs to be
‘independent’. That ‘process’ will indeed take time. However, for Global Britain to be more than yet
another empty British prime ministerial rhetorical flourish that is precisely
the challenge May laid down to the British elite yesterday.

This morning President
Juncker of the European Commission will respond to May’s speech. The Brexit phoney
war is indeed over. “Go ahead, make my day…but can we please be friends
afterwards?”

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.