Following a two-game skid against elite foes Houston and Wichita State, Cincinnati bounced back in a big way with a 25-point romp over Connecticut. On Sunday, the Bearcats host Tulsa at noon ET on CBS Sports Network in a must-win game for the Golden Hurricane.

Cincinnati opened as a 19-point home favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 129.5.

Before picking either side, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, enters the weekend on an eye-popping 14-5 streak, returning a massive profit for any player who followed its picks.

On Saturday, the model told SportsLine members to back Creighton +7 against Villanova, and recommended Creighton on the money line. The result: a six-point upset win for the Bluejays. Anyone who followed it started their weekend in the black.

Now, the computer has examined every matchup, every player and every trend for Tulsa-Cincinnati and locked in a strong against-the-spread pick that it says hits almost 60 percent of the time.

The model knows Tulsa's best chance to stay within the spread -- or win outright -- is to pressure Bearcats senior forward Kyle Washington into making turnovers. The Golden Hurricane also can't let Gary Clark loose on the perimeter, where he knocks down 43 percent of his three-pointers.

But Cincinnati can cover the spread by neutralizing Tulsa's leading scorer, Junior Etou, the rare big man who rebounds like a beast and shoots the long ball -- 37 percent -- with finesse.