Looking through to the full results — PDF — it's interesting that on the right direction/wrong track question, 70% of the respondents think the country is on the wrong track (24% say "right direction"), but when the same question is asked about Wisconsin, 50% say "right direction," and 46% say "wrong track."

Check out question 30: "In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I'd rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?" 50% prefer the lower taxes approach, compared to 41% who want more services.

And question 38: "Thinking about all the changes in state government over the past year, do you think Wisconsin is better off in the long run because of these changes or worse off in the long run?" 54% say "better off," over 40% that say "worse off."

Thinking about all the changes in state government over the past year, do you think Wisconsin is better off in the long run because of these changes or worse off in the long run?" 54% say "better off," over 40% that say "worse off."

"In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I'd rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?" 50% prefer the lower taxes approach, compared to 41% who want more services.

In Illinois you'd get the reverse answer, as we have a large number of people dependent on government funding either through welfare payments or other assistance or because they're on a government payroll.

I think the electorate thinks the recall is unfair, unwarranted and a partisan stunt.

When Gov. Gray Davis was recalled in 2003, it was because the state's finances were a wreck. It seemed as if the only way to salvage the situation was to change leaders. Desperation was in the air.

Not so in Wisconsin. The only desperate people in Wisconsin's political universe are the public employee unions and the Democratic party. Which did SO much to boost its reputation by leaving the state to block a vote.

It looks like a refight of the previous election, and the voters hate that. They want campaigns every four years, not every time the losers are unhappy.

So the polling suggests that there are a whole bunch more Walker supporters than there are voting-age, living Wisconsin residents who signed their real name to a petition once.

The petitions for the state senators are up. I took a look through Van Wangaard's of Racine and in 5 minutes found a man and a woman with the exact same handwriting, as well as a two signatures from a couple in Wisconsin Rapids (about 200 miles away). Anecdotal? Most certainly! Means that there are not enough valid signatures -- certainly not. But those four "signatures" will equate to only one vote against Wangaard. Such is the hard math faced by the recallers.

One of Willard's great strengths is that he cannot be pigeonholed. He isn't strictly conservative, moderate or liberal; Willard is in fact all of the above.

Policy issues are very complex and require complex solutions. Willard understands this because he's an outstanding, experienced problem solver and manager. That's why, for example, he can be pro-life and pro-choice at the same time.

Willard has very strong convictions. One of his most firmly held convictions is that his convictions are flexible and should change as necessary to fit the circumstances. That's why in reality Willard is both the most conservative and the most moderate GOP presidential candidate.

I think those behind this whole recall stunt know the hard fact that they probably have 800,000 real votes out of all the signatures collected. I think it will be difficult to grow appreciably that number. Walker simply needs to get those to the polls who voted for him in 2010.

He will have a fight, but I think Walker wants this fight because the payoff will be huge.

Doesn't matter where I am Garage. The point is, you don't have the conditions in place for a successful recall. I've been through one, you haven't. Gray Davis was despised on a bipartisan basis. Walker apparently still has the Reeps, and a good share of the independents, and probably will end up getting lots of Dem votes, though those voters won't tell you that.

In fact, all he had was your base -- the state employees. And even some of them were mad at him because he "broke a promise" to bribe them shamelessly because the state ran out of money.

That "right track" poll result referenced above is another deadly stat for your side.

What lovers of government don't understand, well one thing they don't, is that most people hate politics. The last thing they want is an unscheduled election, a refight of a battle that was settled. They don't want to see a bunch of political ads depicting Walker as a shitbag. They want to be left alone. You are disturbing their peace because you don't like it that you lost, and can't wait four years for your next shot. I'm sorry, I'd like to make kissy-face with you, I have no desire to disagree with you, but my analysis is going to be your post-mortem.

I'm sorry, I'd like to make kissy-face with you, I have no desire to disagree with you, but my analysis is going to be your post-mortem.

Please. You don't know jack shit about Wisconsin politics, just as I don't know anything about SoCal politics. You're a Pat Caddell/Doug Schoen type fake Democrat, always wanting to pass on bad conventional wisdom advice to them. Whatever happens in the recalls won't have anything to do with your trolling/mobying.

Check out question 30: "In general, which of the following statements do you agree with more? I'd rather pay higher taxes and have a state government that provides more services, or I'd rather pay lower taxes and have a state government that provides fewer services?" 50% prefer the lower taxes approach, compared to 41% who want more services.

Where is the third option? The one that asks I rather pay taxes for services that directly benefit me the taxpayer and not pay taxes to subsidize those living off government?

The Limbaugh Doctrine at work: A strong conservative message by a good candidate that is not a "Crazy Meanie"" on social issues beats a moderate compromiser who has no reason to live except to promote himself.

This sample prefers Obama by an outsized percentage, also indicating that the sample skews Democrat.

Maybe it is time to head over to intrade. Walker will win, uless R's don't work, because the D's will voting the cemetaries, nursing homes, homeless alcoholics and having the college kids vote twice and more, the way they did when they stole Wisconsin from Bush in 2000.

Boy, talk about groupthink. Romney is "Obama-lite?" Romney is a strong conservative. He might not be Tea Party-esque in style, but he is completely in tune with conservatives on all the issues.

I'm wondering if the Tea Party is starting to evolve into the kind of noxious purists that wrecked the Democratic Party in the 70s. As I watch the regrettable rise of Newt Gingrich, I fear that these purists are going to give us what the left purists gave us in 1972 - four more years of a corrupt regime.

Wow, Garage -- all tantrum and name-calling. No substance. The news is bugging the shit out of you, isn't it?

Nobody in the state knows how it will end up. I talk to people in the state a lot, and I have no real feel for how it will end up. Anyone that does claim to know is yanking someone's chain. You, in this case.

Well I agree Arnold was a terrible governor. But the focus is on how to recall a governor. Conditions were riper to recall Gray Davis -- including the presence of Arnold on the ballot, at the time seen as having more capacity to lead than he in the end demonstrated.

If the Dems can't offer a similarly appealing candidate as an alternative to Walker, that's another hurdle for them in what looks like an impossible task, on top of the perceived nuisance and unfairness of recalling a governor after just a year, the lack of a compelling issue that affects the broad interests of all voters, and the perception that it's all a special-interest turf war. Those special interests are about to waste a ton of money.

The TEA Party is going to give you a Gingrich Presidency with a TEA Party Congress to keep Newt on time and on target. On the hand with a TEA Party congress Mitt won't go wobbly either. Either way its a win-win over the current congress and president.

Nobody in the state knows how it will end up. I talk to people in the state a lot, and I have no real feel for how it will end up

Exactly.

Even tho the "professionals" didn't think it would be possible to launch the re-call drive during the winter months, I always felt confident that there would be enough signatures.

However, it is pretty obvious that this is gonna be a tough hard race...those who wish to see him out of office are motivated and dedicated, but Walker has already raised an unprecedented amount of money and he starting airing reelection commercials right after one of his supporters launched the recall-drive early. That doesn't sound like someone who is confident of victory, does it?

Rational people, on all sides of this issue, know that the race will be too close to call...anyone who says otherwise is either very naive or simply a partisan hack.

That said, no matter what way the election unfolds, I'm afraid that the violence will still continue (latest update: Police reports state that a Recall HQ in Columbus has been repeatedly vandalized) This whole We refuse to negotiate or even listen to you, so you WILL do what you're told! attitude that the WI-GOP has brought forth in the last year has deeply poisoned our state, and it will take a long time to recover...

I'm afraid that the violence will still continue (latest update: Police reports state that a Recall HQ in Columbus has been repeatedly vandalized) This whole We refuse to negotiate or even listen to you, so you WILL do what you're told! attitude that the WI-GOP has

So let me get this straight.

The "WI-GOP" is responsible for a recall HQ being vandalized?

When are you going to make a post about the death threats against Republicans in WI?

That said, no matter what way the election unfolds, I'm afraid that the violence will still continue (latest update: Police reports state that a Recall HQ in Columbus has been repeatedly vandalized) This whole We refuse to negotiate or even listen to you, so you WILL do what you're told! attitude that the WI-GOP has brought forth in the last year has deeply poisoned our state, and it will take a long time to recover...

So, running away to IL because you didn't win the argument didn't poison the state?

Bender said...On the hand with a TEA Party congress Mitt won't go wobbly either

A nominee Romney will tell the Tea Party to shut up and fall in line. A President Romney will tell the Tea Party to shut up and fall in line, just as Romney-esque Boehner has told them to do.

1/25/12 12:41 PM

The TEA Party will push enough votes for Congress that and that Congress will make Mitt do their bidding. Also Romney isn't stupid. He knows without a fired up base he will have gained nothing other than being another McCain.

Romney is an ass-clown, whereas Obama is the incumbent. It's Obama's job to lose, and he's done a damn good job trying. But to beat the incumbent, a challenger at least has to seem like he'd be an improvement.

That you --- a true believer --- doesn't know how it will end is not positive.

All head to heads were within the margin of error of the poll +/- 7%, except for Cullen. The poll oversampled Milwaukee suburbs (30%) landlines (71%) and 60% of the poll sampled were over the age of 45.

Side note: I always find it amusing what Althouse doesn't blog about. Like this for instance.

The corruption investigation into Gov. Scott Walker's time as Milwaukee County executive is focusing on the bid competition to house the county's Department on Aging in private office space, the Journal Sentinel has learned.

"James, as an Ohioan, I thoroughly enjoyed Kasich's union busting Issue 2 going down in total flames! :)"

Of course there are significant differences between the Ohio and Wisconsin issues.

1) WI reforms have been implemented and lived under for a year, whereas Ohio they were unknown.2) Ohio included emergency services and WI did not -- no scaring people into thinking their house will burn down.3) It's an election with a person vs. a person, not an up or down on a particular law.4) Walker will have money to defend himself, Kasich didn't have money or an effectively campaign vehicle to defend the idea.

The referenced poll says that 74% favor "Requiring public employees to contribute to their own pensions and pay more for health insurance" but only 48% favor "Limiting public employees' ability to collectively bargain over benefits and non-wage issues."

From which one must conclude that a significant percentage of the electorate believes that it would have been possible to get the first without the second??

The poll oversampled Milwaukee suburbs (30%) landlines (71%) and 60% of the poll sampled were over the age of 45.

Which, I take to mean, you think older, conservative voters were over sampled? Like will happen at the recall election polling places this summer when all the snow birds are back in state and the college kids are off?

"Soooo, if WI unemployment continues to tank ~ stay tuned!"Wisconsin is 20th lowest or 30th highest in unemployment. I don't know where you're getting the tanking opinion from, but it doesn't jibe with the facts, no matter how the media spins it. We are right in the middle. And as goes the rest of the US unemployment, Wisconsin will go right along with it. At least we're not #8 highest Illinois...

From which one must conclude that a significant percentage of the electorate believes that it would have been possible to get the first without the second??

Interesting Tommy Thompson is hedging on that question:

"I was not there when he was making his decision based on the facts and evidence that he had. I'm not going to come now and Monday (morning) quarterback and say I would have done it different," Thompson said, according to the Journal Sentinel. "Probably would have, but I don't know."

Thompson also said he does not support right-to-work legislation, another proposal popular with fiscal conservatives.Link

Thank goodness California elected Governor Arnold! The voters obviously knew what they were doing because Governor Arnold left California on a sound financial footing.

Arnold was on track to reverse decades of mindless Democrat spending with a series of ballot initiatives. A story about him feeling up some babe on a movie set went around, making him personally unpopular, and the initiatives failed. After that, Arnold essentially became a Democrat, and that accounts for the horrible state of the California economy. I sorely regret voting for him, but how was I to know he would go liberal on me?

A nominee Romney will tell the Tea Party to shut up and fall in line. A President Romney will tell the Tea Party to shut up and fall in line, just as Romney-esque Boehner has told them to do.

"Shut up and do as I say" sounds a lot more like Gingrich than Romney.

Anyway, outside of a war situation (a real war that threatens us, not the current war) neither Congress nor the American people have tolerance for the "shut up and fall in line" schtick. He's President, not King. Also... "fall in line" with WHAT? What does Romney believe in strongly enough to pick a fight with his own party?

I agree. RomneyCare is just one example of how in tune Willard is with conservatives. Willard is definitely singing their tune!

As Newt's career illustrates, the elements of Romneycare were only ruled out of bounds for conservatives recently.

It was a state plan. Most authentic conservatives have no problem with states trying out experiments like Romneycare.

The bottom line is Romney has said he will repeal Obamacare, defund it, and destroy it through executive orders. What more do you need?

I defend Romney because he clearly is the only existant GOP candidate that can win. He's plenty conservative, but he's also a successful person who can govern. Gingrich is a buffoon who happens to say interesting things from time to time, then self-destructs. If he gets the nomination, you won't live long enough to stop regretting it.

"It was a state plan. Most authentic conservatives have no problem with states trying out experiments like Romneycare."

I'm really tired of Romney using this argument. It's a straw man, and he knows it. "No one" disputes MA's right to implement this plan, and "everybody" agrees that state experimenes are helpful, but the fact remains IT'S AN AWFUL PLAN, for the exact same reasons that ObamaCare is awful. I may well support Romney if the Wisconsin primary still matters by the time they get here, but Romney needs to say "I fucked up". He also needs to fire the advisers who cooked up this "states rights" dodge.

Of course there is because up until now the Walker haters have mainly been talking to each other. "You hate Walker?" "Yeah, I hate Walker". "Hate, hate, hate Walker". "Anyone here not hate Walker?" "No we ALL hate Walker!!" "Hate!! Hate!! Hate"

But the Walker haters are simply not a big enough group to defeat Walker. So the Dems are going to have to convince people who DON'T hate Walker that things are SO BAD that he has to get kicked out of office after 1 year.

And quite frankly, they don't have a good argument for that. And as the election date gets closer and that armageddon that the Dems were predicting was going to visit our state never materializes, Walker's position will only get stronger.

If you think a majority of constituents would be better served by repealing Obamacare, and a Tea Party/Conservative/GOP controlled Congress does so, do you think Romney would veto it just because he felt obliged to come up with the best possible universal health care system* in the bluest of blue states for blue voters?!??

"If you think a majority of constituents would be better served by repealing Obamacare, and a Tea Party/Conservative/GOP controlled Congress does so, do you think Romney would veto it..."

No, I don't. I take him at his word. But the fact remains it is a plan that can do nothing but fail because the incentives are counterproductive. He could say that (in fact he is better positioned to do this than anybody else, having been it's architect). But he won't. I'm worried he doesn't understand what's wrong with it. And that troubles me mightly.

"garage mahal said...Side note: I always find it amusing what Althouse doesn't blog about. Like this for instance.

The corruption investigation into Gov. Scott Walker's time as Milwaukee County executive is focusing on the bid competition to house the county's Department on Aging in private office space, the Journal Sentinel has learned.

As shiloh would say, stay tuned!"

Having had the "John Doe" investigation blow up in his face...after months of OT comments bringing it up, garage mahal finds a new straw to grasp.

Any poll that shows Walker with only a %7 lead over Kathy Falk is skewed (Falk like Gingrich will never get to represent the ticket) and suggests this race is wide open. I would like to see Tom Barrett re-enter the race now that the actual studies on the mess Walker left Milwaukee in can be discussed. Add the high job loss numbers to the investigation into high level Walker aids, and things get interesting.

purplepenquin said...That said, no matter what way the election unfolds, I'm afraid that the violence will still continue (latest update: Police reports state that a Recall HQ in Columbus has been repeatedly vandalized) This whole We refuse to negotiate or even listen to you, so you WILL do what you're told! attitude that the WI-GOP has brought forth in the last year has deeply poisoned our state, and it will take a long time to recover..."

Nobody in the state knows how it will end up. I talk to people in the state a lot, and I have no real feel for how it will end up. Anyone that does claim to know is yanking someone's chain. You, in this case.

Whoa! This is a change.What's the matter? They start finding all those phony signatures already?

Sorry you missed me, but if you had bothered to check on my website you'd have seen I was on vacation last week.

(And tell me again how you don't obsess over me...'cause getting uptight about someone not being around a week ago sure seems like an obsession.)

You are the fucking poster child of liberal hypocrisy. From lunch breaks being "life and death" to this shit. Pathetic.

*sigh*

Are you really disputing that fatigue is an issue for some trades/professions? Or have you convinced yourself that I really said "Lunch breaks are life and death!" without any other context?

So far it appears that you're trolling for the sake of trolling.

'cause your actions...ranging from childish name-calling to gleefully posting videos showing workers dying on the job to the way you attack me for stances that are the complete opposite of what I just stated they were...strongly indicate that you aren't interested in having a good-faith discussion about any of the issues.

@garage,If you don't approve of what Ms. Althouse chooses to blog and not blog, there's this nifty little social tool, you may have heard of it: it's called a "blog".You start it, you choose the topics. If people think they are worthwhile, they come read.

Of course, you have to put up with idiots who try to hijack the threads with their own topics that are so pathetic and ridiculous they don't get coverage anywhere but FireDogLake and Daily Kos, but if you have good commenters, like Ms. Althouse does, the trolls get humiliated over and over and over.

Of course, the thread swerve liberal trolls seem to think "winning" like Charlie Sheen represents some actual victory, but that just adds to the entertainment.

So go ahead: spend your time on blogging instead of writing the nonsense you usually do here.

1) They are not just shooting themselves in the foot, they are effectively lining up their children and grandchildren and shooting them in the ass! How selfish!

I read a pro-recaller say that "they (government workers) are not responsible for the bad economy, they deserve their "fair share". She didn't give a damn about the additional monies reform has brought to Wisconsin schools or the budget savings to Wisconsin or the less debt and better services for her children's future. Typical self-interest.

2) They want to live in the 1950's and 60's again and dream of luscious never-ending government care and union coddling. Holding on the past that's gone forever.

The world has changed. That economy is gone forever. Like Steve Jobs telling Obama to basically get over Obama's outdated economic notions - "those jobs are not coming back".

Wake up Wisconsin Recallers - the damage you do will screw your children and on and they will curse your self serving shirt-sightedness.

I've got to admit. I sit here in Kentucky AWED by the energy you people put into hating each other(Wisconsinites). I got a congressman I detest, but I am not going to go wherever, and stand around chanting, or blowing vulvas (or whatever they're called), or signing a recall petition. I just wait , and use my vote, and try to convince other people not to vote for him.

Maybe it's the piss poor weather you all have, locked up all winter long gots to make anyone crazy.

Arnold was on track to reverse decades of mindless Democrat spending with a series of ballot initiatives. A story about him feeling up some babe on a movie set went around, making him personally unpopular, and the initiatives failed. After that, Arnold essentially became a Democrat, and that accounts for the horrible state of the California economy.

I agree. Governor Arnold failed because he was a secret Democrat. Very good analysis!

My point is that unlike politicians like John Kerry, Willard doesn't fall back on silly excuses like "I was for it before I was against it" to explain apparently contradictory positions. In this case, Willard was ALWAYS against RomneyCare; he only supported RomneyCare as an experiment to show Americans why ObamaCare would be bad. And that's why he's always been right.

Willard will make a great President for the very reason you identify: he can beat Obama.

We'll know soon Jaytard, from what it sounds like. But you seem to be an expert in the John Doe - why don't you give us your thoughts as to what is going on. Feel free to use the linked article I provided.

In my days at corp accounting for a fortune 100 firm, I saw how much they spent on lawyers to defend the company in lawsuits. Why? Because the company was guilty? No. Well, not most of the time. It was due to slick lawyers and unethical people seeing a deep pockets entity as a cash machine. You should see the employment discrimination claims.

The unionists/Democrats are throwing everything they can at Governor Walker, hoping something will stick. That is why the governor needs a good legal team.

I love Willard: "If Walker isn't guilty of anything, he has no reason to worry.

There's a basic principle involved here that some conservatives seem to have forgotten: if you're innocent, you have nothing to fear. "

I used to believe this too but it seems that too often that is no longer the case. I recall the two year jail sentence for poor paperwork on imported orchids. http://boingboing.net/2009/10/05/swat-team-raids-orch.html

Walker may have bought a coffee from campaign cash but drank it in the governors office and been in violation of so campaign finance law. If I were the gov I'd be sure we had plenty of lawyers to prevent that sort of b.s.

Walker has spent over 100k on lawyers relating to the John Doe. Why, do you suppose? His own spokesman was granted immunity from prosecution for gods sake. How many governors can say that?

Why Curious George sticks up for child molesters and people who raid Veterans Charities is anyone's guess though."

Really dude we've been down this path before.

First, I have never "stuck up" for those involved in the crime, but if you can show otherwise, please do.

Second, Walker's administration doesn't "stick up" for these people either, as it turns out they were the ones that initiated the John Doe investigation. Too bad, so sad.

Finally there were no charges of child molestation. It was child enticement, and those were not against anyone that has ever worked for Walker, or was ever hired by Walker. As it was pointed out, that person actually was hired by a Democrat.

Why are we always left wondering if you are a liar, or an idiot, or both?

So the Wisconsin election commission, or whatever system ya'll got in place to monitor voter fraud, have granted the republicans 61 day to challenge signatures instead of the usual 31.Question; At what percentage point are all of the petitions thrown out?I only ask because it has been my experience that democrats are zealots at cooking the books.

What the hell is the point of ANY Garage post here? Really. One day he's making wild projections about the Senate recall the next month he says no one knows. But the tide of history keeps flowing away from Mahal's glorious liberal oasis in the Land of Cheese & Harleys. I spend A LOT of time in WI (and live in CA) but it doesn't take long to see, like most people, Badger Folk just aren't that interested in politics.

Ann called it correctly long ago: "normal" people don't appreciate a stupid needless election forced upon them, a 2-wave season of attack ads and sophistry. These annoyed folk DON'T blame Walker for this fiasco. They blame people who populate Dane County!