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Thursday, May 01, 2014

Kentucky Derby Field Set - CPT Pick to win - Vicar's in Trouble with Rosie Napravnik making history

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Today was the drawing for post position and the first posting of the odds for Saturday's 140th Kentucky Derby and the Coltons Point Times pick to win, Vicar's in Trouble, will have to shatter history to make history.

Vicar's in Trouble

The most dreaded position in the Kentucky Derby is post position number 1, against the fence. Would you believe the first horse to draw was Vicar's in Trouble and the position it drew was Pole Position #1 so the entire rest of the field could rest easy, the hell hole was gone.

Rosie Napravnik

Did I mention no #1 horse has ever won the Derby? Neither has a woman ever won and that brings me to Rosie Napravnik, a 26 year old 5' 2 " 133 lb female jockey and no female has ever won the Derby. I had no choice but to pick Rosie because she was born about 5 miles from where I lived in 1988, I lived in Morris Township, NJ and she was born in her grandmother's home in Mendham Township, NJ. She was brought to the hospital in Morristown. At the time I worked for Governor Thomas Kean of New Jersey.

So Rosie has to beat history to win, the horse has to beat history to win, it is the smallest horse in the race, and by the way, even though the horse ranks number 2 in terms of Derby points, four top experts for Churchill Downs made top ten picks and Vicar only showed up once, and that was in 9th place.

Vicar is only the third horse bred in Louisiana to compete in the Derby, none have won. The Vicar first sold for $8,000, then resold for $80,000 before winning 3 of its last five races. And Rosie moved to Louisiana with her husband, Joe Sharp, a trainer so the Louisiana horse has an adopted Louisiana rider in Rosie.

Then there are opening odds, Vicar was 30-1.Still I say do not underestimate this determined Jersey girl. She has her sites set on winning the Triple Crown before she is through and if anyone can shatter all the glass ceilings needed to get there it is Rosie. Did I mention she was the first woman to win the Kentucky Oaks? Last year she finished 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 3rd in the Preakness, the best finishes ever for a woman.

Over the last two seasons she was one of the top ten jockeys in the USA and is in the running for jockey of the year in 2014. I say it is time for history to be made, not followed. Go Rosie.

Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite
California Chrome drew post position No. 5 and is a 5-2 favorite to win the
140th "Run for the Roses." Wicked Strong and Hoppertunity are the top
challengers to California Chrome, and both were able to avoid the dreaded No. 1
post. Wicked Strong drew the No. 20 gate while Hoppertunity will break from the
No. 11 gate.

The draw can have a major impact on the
outcome of the race. Get stuck too far outside and your chances go down. No
horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby running from the 17th gate like
Commanding Curve will this year. Getting stuck along the rail can also be an
issue, with no Derby
winner coming from the first two inside spots in the last 25 years. There are
always exceptions -- like I'll Have Another winning from the No. 19 gate in
2012 -- but a poor draw is a lot to overcome.

California Chrome will enter the derby having won four
straight stakes. Even with the wins, there have been issues with California
Chrome's break, possibly making post position an even bigger factor. Staying
away from the rail could be a key, as another poor break won't necessarily pin
California Chrome behind the field with too much ground to make up right off
the bat. California Chrome has had success running from the No. 5 post,
including winning the Santa Anita Derby. If California Chrome is able to come
away with the win, it would make history in the process. At 77 years old,
trainer Art Sherman would become the oldest trainer to win the Kentucky Derby.

Wicked
Must Reads

Strong was unfortunate to draw the No. 20 post and will
have ground to make up starting from the far outside. Ride on Curlin with
jockey Calvin Borel also landed an outside spot and will break next to Wicked
Strong at the No. 19 post. Hoppertunity, trained by Bob Baffert, was more
fortunate, drawing the 11th post. Hoppertunity jockey Mike Smith said he was
happy with the No. 11 post, although the horse will have to be in the gate for
a while.

Any concerns of getting the rail went away
early with Vicar's In Trouble drawing the No. 1 position on the very first
draw. The trainers and jockeys did have to sweat some with the No. 2 post
staying on the board late into the draw before Harry's Holiday
was saddled with the spot. Pablo Del Monte is an alternate entry and
would be added to the field if any of the current 20 horses scratch before 9
a.m. ET on Friday.

Post positions and morning line odds for
the 2014 Kentucky Derby

Post Position

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

Vicar's In Trouble

Rosie Napravnik

Mike Maker

30-1

2

Harry's Holiday

Corey Lanerie

Mike Maker

50-1

3

Uncle Sigh

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Gary Contessa

30-1

4

Danza

Joe Bravo

Todd Pletcher

10-1

5

California Chrome

Victor Espinoza

Art Sherman

5-2

6

Samraat

Jose Ortiz

Rick Violette Jr.

15-1

7

We Miss Artie

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

50-1

8

General A Rod

Joel Rosario

Mike Maker

15-1

9

Vinceremos

Joe Rococo Jr.

Todd Pletcher

30-1

10

Wildcat Red

Luis Saez

Joe Garoffalo

15-1

11

Hoppertunity

Mike Smith

Bob Baffert

6-1

12

Dance With Fate

Corey Nakatani

Peter Eurton

20-1

13

Chitu

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

20-1

14

Medal Count

Robby Albarado

Dale Romans

20-1

15

Tapiture

Ricardo Santana Jr.

Steve Asmussen

15-1

16

Intense Holiday

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

12-1

17

Commanding Curve

Shaun Bridgmohan

Dallas Stewart

50-1

18

Candy Boy

Gary Stevens

John Sadler

20-1

19

Ride On Curlin

Calvin Borel

William G. Gowan

15-1

20

Wicked Strong

Rajiv Maragh

James A. Jerkens

8-1

21 AE

Pablo Del Monte

Jeffrey Sanchez

Wesley Ward

50-1

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NBC Boosts TV Coverage

NBC is adding Johnny Weir and Tara Lipinski to its Kentucky Derby telecast
as fashion correspondents next week, illustrating how the network's coverage
now reflects one of the most female-friendly televised sporting events of the
year.The two figure skaters, who were the breakout stars of NBC's Sochi Olympics
broadcast team, will comment on the fashionable outfits worn by members of the
rich and celebrity-filled audience who try to avoid spilling mint juleps on
their designer duds, the network said Tuesday.The image of cigar-chomping race fans no longer applies to horse racing's
signature event. Slightly more than half of NBC's Derby viewers last year were women attracted
to the party, the Nielsen company said. No other major TV sports event, with
the exception of the Olympics, is so weighted toward female viewers, NBC said.

''It's not just a two-minute race,'' said Rob Hyland, coordinating producer
for the NBC Sports Group. ''Of course, the two-minute race is extremely
important, but our job is to capture the venue and the day - it's a huge
celebration - as creatively and poignantly as possible.''.