Sean McVay got out-coached by Bill Belichick last time they met. Is he ready for the rematch?

This article is part of Vs. – a series examining all the best matchups of Super Bowl LIII. Read all of the coverage here.

Super LIII will mark the first time Bill Belichick and Sean McVay face off as NFL head coaches, but it will not be the first time the greatest coach in league history matches wits with the most-celebrated offensive mind in the league’s present.

That happened back in 2015, before Belichick had nailed down his title of GOAT and Sean McVay was a no-name second-year offensive coordinator on Jay Gruden’s staff in Washington. It wasn’t a particularly memorable affair. The Patriots blew the game open early and cruised to a 27-10 win. A lot has changed over the last three seasons, but Belichick’s and McVay’s coaching philosophies have not.

So we studied the film of that game to get a better feel of what we can expect when two of the smartest coaches in the league square off on the sport’s biggest stage. Here’s what we learned …

How Bill Belichick took away what Sean McVay offenses do best

Because Belichick has transformed the Patriots defensive system so often over the last two decades, it’s impossible to sum up his schematic approach in just a sentence or two. But there is one overarching theme to all of his defensive gameplans over the years: The Patriots defense is going to take away what an offense does best and force it to play left-handed. That was certainly the case when McVay’s offense traveled to Gillette Stadium for a November matchup with the defending Super Bowl champs.

The foundation of McVay’s offensive system is the outside zone running play made famous by the 1990s Broncos teams coached by Mike Shanahan and Alex Gibbs.

Well, Belichick knew this coming into that game against the Redskins, so when formulating his defensive plan, stopping the outside zone was likely at the top of his list of objectives.

How would he do it? By playing what the Pats call an “Extended front.” While defenses — especially those that base out of a 3-4 front — almost always have a defensive tackle lining up over the center or a gap adjacent to him, the extended front features two defensive tackles (red) lined in up in the gaps between both guards and tackles. And the ends (blue) split out a little wider than normal.

This helps to clog up the outside rushing lanes and forces the running back to cut the ball back inside, where the linebackers, who don’t have to over-pursue outside with their defensive teammates positioned on the perimeter, can remain patient and stay in those cutback lanes.

On that November Sunday in 2015, the Redskins could not get their outside zone going at all, and McVay was forced to call more inside runs. He even trotted out some two-back sets, which is something you’ll rarely see him do in Los Angeles (this season, the Rams played a league-low five snaps with two backs on the field). Those adjustments were not very effective. Washington was held to 37 rushing yards on 15 attempts.

Sean McVay can exploit the Patriots pass defense in Super Bowl 53

That had a trickle-down effect on the rest of the offense. With the running game sputtering, McVay never really got deep into his play-action calls. Kirk Cousins attempted just five passes off play-action and completed only two passes for seven yards. His passer rating on those throws was just 47.9. On the season, he compiled a passer rating of 129.1, which led the league.

The Redskins offense never got into a rhythm and needed a garbage-time drive to find the end zone even once.

Washington was completely stymied, but that may not have been the case if its receivers could just catch the ball. McVay was able to draw up several plays that resulted in a receiver running free, but the Redskins just couldn’t take advantage (they had seven drops on the day).

One of those plays Washington botched should be a familiar one to Rams fans who tuned into the Thursday night win over Minnesota. The goal of the play design is to get the tight end open by having him act as if he’s blocking a linebacker before leaking out on the backside.

The play worked perfectly, but backup TE Derek Carrier was unable to haul in the pass.

One tweak Sean McVay made in L.A. could make all the difference

In L.A., McVay has replaced that second tight end with a third receiver, which makes the leak concept all the more dangerous, especially when one of those receivers gets matched up with a linebacker, as Cooper Kupp did against Minnesota.

You will almost certainly see the Rams call this one at least once on Sunday.

When Washington’s passing game did enjoy some success, it came on similar concepts that flooded one side of the field but had an option backside if the Patriots had the front side covered, which, of course, they did.

Under McVay, the Rams have destroyed defenses with these flood concepts out of three-by-one formations, so Belichick will likely aim to take them away. That should leave opportunities on the backside, as it did back in 2015.

What Sean McVay can do differently in Round 2

One major change McVay has made since leaving Washington is decreasing his usage of shotgun formations on running plays. The Redskins didn’t run all that much out of the gun under his watch, but they did it enough that defenses had to respect it, which helped to open up lanes on play-action fakes. This one should have been a completion.

That’s not something the Patriots really have to worry about against the 2018 incarnation of McVay’s offense. Los Angeles attempted only 28 runs out of the gun all season — 13 of those were Jared Goff scrambles. That’s only 15 called runs over the course of 16 games! During the regular season, the Rams passed 93.2% of the time when they lined up in a shotgun formation.

That’s a tendency Belichick has surely picked up on. If McVay wants to throw a curveball at his coaching adversary, mixing in some shotgun runs will get the Pats coaching staff scrambling on the sidelines.

Belichick’s gameplans ar always hard to predict, but McVay can be sure about one thing: The Patriots defense will be focused on stopping that outside zone play that is the foundation of the Rams offense. The 33-year-old coach has two weeks to come up with a counter. As a 29-year-old play-caller, he was unable to do so. If McVay fails once again, he’ll be just another offensive genius Belichick has left in his wake.

This article is part of Vs. – a series examining all the best matchups of Super Bowl LIII. Read all of the coverage here.

Sean McVay got out-coached by Bill Belichick last time they met. Is he ready for the rematch?

McVay adjusted well to Belichick’s tactics but his players let him down.

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