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House Majority Still Uncertain, Republicans Say

WASHINGTON — Republicans carry substantial advantages as they move into the final month of the fall campaign, but the resilience of vulnerable Democrats is complicating Republican efforts to lock down enough seats to capture the House and take control of the unsettled electoral battleground.

By now, Republicans had hoped to put away a first layer of Democrats and set their sights on a second tier of incumbents. But the fight for control of Congress is more fluid than it seemed at Labor Day, with Democrats mounting strong resistance in some parts of the country as they try to hold off a potential Republican wave in November.

The chances of a Republican takeover in the House remain far greater than in the Senate, according to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times. But enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.

Races typically tighten in the final month as voters on both sides become more engaged, and the political climate is no more favorable for Democrats than it has been all year, with no substantial signs of improvement in the economy or the outlook for unemployment.

Yet even as spending from outside groups is threatening to swamp many Democratic candidates, Republican strategists estimated that only half of the 39 seats they need to win control of the House were definitively in hand.

Many Democratic incumbents remain vulnerable, but their positions have stabilized in the last month as they have begun running negative advertisements to raise questions about their Republican challengers and shift the focus of voters away from contentious national issues like health care, bailouts and President Obama’s performance.

For Republicans to take control of the Senate, the margin of error remains small. The party needs to win 10 of 12 of the most competitive contests, which include seats in Democratic-leaning California, Connecticut, Illinois and Washington.

Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the House Republican leader and the likely speaker if his party wins a majority, signaled that he wanted to step up the intensity. Before lawmakers left town to campaign last week, Mr. Boehner contributed $1 million from his fund-raising vehicles and pressed his colleagues into giving the party $3 million from their own campaigns to help pay for television commercials and make sure Republicans do not come up short because of a lack of resources.

“We have a lot of work to do,” Mr. Boehner said in an interview.

Democrats pointed to positive signs in recent weeks, including that Senator Barbara Boxer, a third-term Democrat, appears to be running ahead of her Republican challenger, Carly Fiorina, in California. Mrs. Boxer’s seat is among those Republicans have been working to capture.

In South Dakota, Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, a Democrat viewed as being in deep trouble in her red state, has been running ahead in polls in what remains a competitive race.

“Our candidates are remaining viable long after the Republicans have counted them out,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Voters are taking a very close look at the Republican challengers.”

But the field remains unusually unstable at this stage of the campaign, with early voting already under way in seven states and people in 17 more states eligible to begin casting ballots in the next two weeks.

Photo

Senator Barbara Boxer, Democrat of California, in a radio debate last week with her Republican opponent, Carly Fiorina.Credit
Pool photo by Jason Reed/Getty Images

Republicans pointed to signs of opportunity in House and Senate races. The National Republican Senatorial Committee plans to make a new investment of $2.2 million in the race for the West Virginia Senate seat that had been held for generations by Senator Robert C. Byrd, a Democrat who died this year. Gov. Joe Manchin III, a Democrat, had seemed to be in a strong position, but the race has suddenly become competitive.

Representative Gene Taylor, a conservative Mississippi Democrat who often breaks with his party and usually coasts to re-election, finds himself in a close race. In Illinois, Representative Phil Hare, a Democrat, is trying to hold off an energized challenger, while another Democrat, Representative Bruce Braley, is under attack in his eastern Iowa district. A conservative group based in Des Moines pledged last week to write a check for $800,000 to run television advertisements against Mr. Braley.

The Midwest, with its job losses and stagnant economy, is looming as particularly difficult terrain for Democrats, who have multiple tough races in Illinois, Michigan and Ohio.

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But in other races across the country, Democratic candidates in some of the most difficult contests said that they were holding their own and that they were seeing a growing interest in the campaign among Democratic voters. While they say they have no illusions about the political environment, particularly as many remain below 50 percent in their own polling, they say they can still defy expectations and win with a strong voter turnout effort.

“Anyone who has written my campaign off is in for a surprise come election night,” said Representative Earl Pomeroy, a Democratic incumbent battling for re-election in North Dakota.

Mr. Pomeroy has been rated one of the most vulnerable Democrats, given the Republican and conservative tilt of his state. But polls show him essentially tied with his Republican challenger, Rick Berg, who has been the subject of a series of tough attack ads from Mr. Pomeroy.

In Wisconsin, Senator Russ Feingold conceded that he was locked in a tough battle against a Republican newcomer, Ron Johnson. But Mr. Feingold scoffed at analysts who have all but placed him in the Democratic loss column in his bid for a fourth term.

“We think this is essentially tied, and we think we have a lot of horses to pull this out,” Mr. Feingold said in an interview. “This is going to be a very interesting month.”

He and other Democrats suggested that recent victories by Tea Party-backed Senate candidates like Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Joe Miller in Alaska had caught the attention of some Democratic and independent voters, raising the prospect of a new crop of arch conservatives in Congress.

Senator John Cornyn of Texas, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Democrats were delusional if they believed an upswing was under way.

“I’m sure they are looking for any glimmer of hope or opportunity,” Mr. Cornyn said in an interview. “I think things are pretty much locked in. The trajectory is pretty much fixed, and I don’t think things are going to change much.”

Besides California, Democrats pointed to Delaware, Missouri and Washington as states where the party’s prospects for holding the Senate seemed to be improving, though Missouri in particular is a difficult target. And in Illinois, Representative Mark Steven Kirk, the Republican candidate for the Senate seat once held by Mr. Obama, remained unable to separate himself from the Democrat, Alexi Giannoulias.

The size of the battleground, with as many as 15 competitive races in the Senate and more than 50 in the House, presented opportunities and challenges for both parties as they decided where to place their television advertising and other investments in the final stretch. But with outside Republican groups outspending Democrats by as much as 8 to 1, the vast landscape and the unexpected staying power of some vulnerable candidates presented particular obstacles for Democrats.

“While I enjoy the benefit of a larger playing field, it also brings tremendous challenges,” said Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Amanda Cox contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on October 3, 2010, on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: House Majority Still Uncertain, Republicans Say. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe