High-Tech Brings High Stakes for Super Bowl XLI

With an estimated $7 billion wagered on the Big Game, websites vie for action with increasingly outlandish proposition wagers — or prop bets — that make up nearly 50 percent of the total wagers because they're accessible to those who don't exactly sweat the stat sheets.

Most Read

An awful lot of people are going to be timing the national anthem Sunday. It's not just OCD: Hundreds of thousands of dollars are riding on Billy Joel's cadence. The Super Bowl isn't just the most watched sports event--it's also the most bet on. More than 60 million people bet on last year's game, placing over $6 billion of wagers. This year, as the high-tech formulas of online betting sites eclipse the old dry-erase board of the office pool, that number is expected to grow to $7 billion, making Super Bowl XLI the most lucrative hour of sports history. If you're lucky.

The NFL's title tilt has become the crown jewel in the $200 billion sports gambling universe. While tourism officials in Miami, this year's host city, expect 125,000 out-of-towners this weekend, the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority expects more than 275,000--most of them looking to get rich quick. And that puts loads of pressure on the institutions trying to stop them.

Whether at Las Vegas casinos or online sportsbooks, establishments contacted by PM all set their lines by hand--with preparation beginning the moment the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago bears punched tickets to Miami. Chuck Esposito, the assistant vice president of the Race and Sport Book at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas--and the man who works with consultants to set its lines--starts by feeding endless stats to computers. Software crunches the numbers, and then he adjusts those readouts based on gut reaction--the key component, he says, because fantasy football players today have access to virtually the same information Esposito does. So there's a method to the madness. But there's still plenty of madness at places like Bodog.com.

"To determine Peyton Manning's correct over/under for passing yards [which the site lists as 273.5], we consider his average passing yards for the current regular season, historical playoff performances and the defense's rating against the pass--among other things," said Calvin Ayre, founder of Bodog, a hugely popular online gambling site based in Antigua. "If we feel he's due for a big game, we'll move the total higher. Of course, when it comes to instinct, there is bound to be some disagreement. It's amazing how much of an argument five yards higher or lower can cause."

Internet betting was made illegal in the United States last October, but as many as 23 million Americans placed a bet online last year, and laws have done little to slow the tide. Vegas insiders expect about $100 million in action this year in Nevada, the only state where sports gambling is legal. Offshore sports books, meanwhile, have raked in nearly a half-billion each of the past two years.

With so much wagered on the game, websites vie for action with increasingly outlandish proposition wagers--or prop bets--that make up nearly 50 percent of the total wagers because they're accessible to those who don't exactly sweat the stat sheets. Bodog has set the over/under, for instance, on Billy Joel's performance of the national anthem at 1 min., 42 sec. from the moment he says the word, "Oh." (As of Thursday evening, the over is +120, the under -160.)

"We timed Billy Joel's past performance singing `The Star-Spangled Banner' at the World Series," Ayre said. "He is the only singer to have the privilege of being a repeat national anthem singer at the Super Bowl. You have to take into account the musical accompaniment and what liberties will be taken while singing, such as dramatic pauses and notes being stretched out. Last year, Beyonce Knowles took an eternal 2 min., 15 sec."

Joel's a capella rendition from the 2000 World Series--including nearly five seconds on the word, "free"--clocked it at 1:36.

At Bodog, international members can vote on who'll win the coin toss. But that's hardly creative enough, because Ayre described whacky prop bets as "our version of the Super Bowl commercial." Members can wager on who'll score more points Sunday: The Colts, or LeBron James--the NBA star whose Cleveland Cavaliers host the Detroit Pistons. Will Colts QB Manning throw for more yards than former San Francisco 49ers great Joe Montana did in Super Bowl XVI (157 yards)? Who will have more on Feb. 4: touchdown passes by Bears quarterback Rex Grossman, or Grammy wins by John Mayer?

"Nearly everyone that watches the Super Bowl has some type of action on the game, whether making friendly wagers with friends, buying squares at the local bar or placing bets with a licensed sportsbook," said Simon Noble of PinnacleSports.com, an online betting site that doesn't cater to American customers, but has members in more than 100 other countries. Pinnacle members can bet on whether there will be a score in the first 6:27 of the game, and on which team will make the first coach's challenge. "The Super Bowl offers more betting opportunities than any other single game in the world," Noble says.

Having Chicago back in the Super Bowl seems only appropriate, because Sunday's game marks the 20th anniversary of the novelty wager that started it all. In 1986, the last time Chicago played for the championship, Caesars gave 20-1 odds against behemoth Bears defensive lineman William "The Refrigerator" Perry rushing for a touchdown. Then-coach Mike Ditka had used the Fridge for two short-yardage scores during the season, but had said he wouldn't play that game in the Big Game. He changed his mind in the fourth quarter--and Caesars got walloped.

"The place just erupted," said Esposito. "There were long lines at the payout windows, and long faces on our side of the counter. But it caused us to be more outlandish and give the public what they want. The prop bets really are the game within the game."