Was there not a plan to have Vulcan secede from the Federation during the Dominion Wars in DS9?

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No. What was planned was for Vulcan to be conquered by the Dominion as opposed to Betazed. The writers wanted a planet lost that would resonate with the audience, but Vulcan was rejected since it was felt it was too prominent to simply mention being conquered off screen and never revisit again. Betazed was chosen instead, since would resonate with the fans but was low-key enough to get away with an off-screen dismissal.

On the other hand, Vulcan secession is a common theme in Trek novels. It's hinted at in Strangers From the Sky as being the background of the infamous Vulcanian Expedition; it's the main theme of Spock's World; it's one possible logical outcome in The Final Reflection; and many of the post-ST6:TUC novels dabble on the fact that Vulcan has more in common with Romulus than with the Federation.

if Sisko wasn't supposed to be in charge of organizing the effort to bring Bajor into the UFP

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That's an interesting if... That "mission", after all, is what Picard mentions in the passing in a private meeting between the two COs, while also emphasizing that Sisko isn't cleared to violate the PD in the process. The exchange in "Emissary" really sounds like Picard confidentially, almost conspiratorially, divulges the "real" mission to Sisko in stark contrast with his official Starfleet orders, which only involve managing the space station.

The writers wanted a planet lost that would resonate with the audience, but Vulcan was rejected since ...

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It was stated in Unification that Vulcan possessed "Vulcan Defense Ships," suggesting they had their own military organization separate from Starfleet. Betazed too had it's own defense forces, but they were described as weak and out dated.

Vulcans and Betazed are very much not the same people.

Add in Spock's statement that : "Vulcan has not been conquered within its collective memory. The memory goes back so far that no Vulcan can conceive of a conqueror."

If faced with the JemHadar, Vulcans might have fought to their own destruction. The Betazed on the other hand could be seen to make the pragmatic decision of surrendering at some point to the Dominion forces.

In one of the early novels (or maybe a fan fiction) it said that Cait, Lt. M'Ress's home world, would almost regularly secede from the Federation in protest over council decisions, later they would rejoin again.

while also emphasizing that Sisko isn't cleared to violate the PD in the process

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Suggesting that under a different set of circumstance Sisko might have beem allowed to violate the PD, in order to acomplish the "mission."

Picard confidentially, almost conspiratorially, divulges the "real" mission to Sisko

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Every time I watch that scene, I get the feeling that Picard is pushing a personal agenda, rather than a Starfleet one, to get Bajor into the Federation. He did seem to have a interest in Bajor and it's fate.

The "law enforcement gangs" we saw featured both genders. Quite possibly, the same would be true of the rape gangs, regardless of the fact that the males would predominantly handle the penetration aspect of the violence. Domination through violence would appear to be a preferred lifestyle on Turkana IV, and it would certainly be in the interests of the females to be active participants on the winning side.

In an anarchy-driven community, lack of willing partners would hardly be a feature in the statistics, dynamics or politics of rape. And the rape gangs would only go by that name because of the most notorious part of what they were doing, even though the bulk of their operations would involve beating up people, thrashing and/or stealing their property, leaving messages from the boss, and making offers that could not be refused.

It was stated in Unification that Vulcan possessed "Vulcan Defense Ships," suggesting they had their own military organization separate from Starfleet.

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Or at least there were ships stationed at Vulcan ready to offer defense, either permanently, or then during the events.

It sounded as if this Terra First, sorry, Back-to-Earth Movement indeed set out to have Earth separate from the UFP and cease interstellar affairs. But the real threat to the UFP was from the big vote where fear of Klingons was driving several UFP members into bailing out and negotiating separate peace with the Empire; Grandisson's movement was just one facet of the UFP-wide crisis, and the one we got to examine up close for dramatic purposes (and shameless name-dropping/cameo action).

Dissolving of the entire UFP member by member (or in one big flash, if Starfleet duplicity were made public) would have sent Vulcan spinning in the void, too; the scenario of Earth and Earth only withdrawing was never a realistic one in that storyline.

And by the 2230's, would either Earth or Vulcan (or both) withdrawing result in the Federation dissolving?

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Hmm. Hard to say. By the 2230s, the Federation is still young -- only about seventy years old. The loss of one of its key founding Members may well have led to the eventual demise of the Federation -- or maybe not.

I think it's clear that by the 24th Century, though, the secession of United Earth would not lead inevitably to the Federation's dissolution.

In fact, in the Myriad Universes novel The Chimes at Midnight, set in an alternate timeline where Spock died at the age of 8, the Klingon Empire ended up conquering Earth in a surprise attack in 2286, and the Federation government re-located to Vulcan. The Federation President and Council ended up using the Vulcan High Command Headquarters in the City of ShiKahr, seen in ENT's "The Forge"/"Awakening"/"Kir'Shara" trilogy, as their new seat of government.

I think the best way to answer this question is to ask what would happen if the government of one of the German länder, provinces of Canada, or states of Australia, were to be taken over by a dictator like that. They're all federations, after all. Would the Federal Republic of Germany, Canada, or Commonwealth of Australia tolerate such a state of affairs?

...Although everybody was speaking about voting for or against dissolution, the actual vote would probably not actually have been about that issue. Rather, the various members would either be bailing out and signing separate peaces with the Klingon Empire, or then sticking together; if sufficiently many of them bailed out, then the UFP would dissolve in practice, even though nobody really wanted that.