Clinton vs. Rice is U.S. best bet for 2016

Commentary: Women are better investors, money managers, leaders

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Next? Hillary vs Jeb, 2016? Another Clinton vs. another Bush? The matchup has a rock-star ring. Both already jockeying for position ... feel like heirs to dynasties with divine right ... two marquee symbols of major political parties ... both fit neatly into the new centrist ideologies emerging from the latest election ... fit for a new age when both parties will be forced by economics as well as political and demographic realities to compromise in the near-term ... to survive as parties and a viable nation in the New America.

Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

But what’s best for America? It’s obvious: Women are America’s new voting power-brokers. For that play, you can bet the early money’s on Hillary Clinton vs. Condoleezza Rice in the 2016 presidential race.

Yes, Jeb Bush is an old-guard favorite, even stronger with Marco Rubio on the ticket. But the time has come, 2012 proved women are America’s new voting bloc.

Condoleezza Rice, the 66th United States Secretary of State.

So what’s really best for 21st century America: a strong woman leader and the Hillary vs. Condi matchup guarantees it. Americans are tired of costly, irrational wars racking up trillions in debt. Men are natural warriors, whether in defense budgeting, stock trading or with some deep psychological need to dominate.

Women think very differently. Their mind-set is exactly what the new America needs for effective 21st century global leadership. So let’s start with a survey of the research on why women are better investors.

Research proves that women are better investors than men and, by extension, better at handling money, deficits and debt — and likely with fiscal cliffs. A few years ago Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig quoted well-known finance professors Brad Barber and Terrance Odean. Their research proved “women’s risk-adjusted returns beat those of men by an average of about one percentage point annually ... women trade less frequently, hold less volatile portfolios.”

Men’s brains think like aggressive hyperactive kids playing video games: “In the testosterone-poisoned sandbox of the male investor, the most important thing is beating the other guy; the second most important: bragging about it. The long term is somebody else’s problem and asking for advice is an admission of inferiority. Worrying about risk is for sissies. Leverage is good, since it raises returns — while the market goes up. Is it any wonder the male-dominated world of Wall Street has boomed and busted every few years for more than two centuries?” And why women outperform men investors.

It’s also easy to understand why America’s future would be safer if women were in leadership roles. As Zweig put it: Women “put safety first ... are less afflicted than men by overconfidence, or the delusion that they know more than they really do. And they’re more likely than men to attribute success to factors outside themselves, like luck or fate.”

In a rising market men tell themselves they’re geniuses. When falling, they blame Congress and regulators.

Women are also surprised by this rapid power shift

Look closely, 21st century America is an Age of Powerful Women. Their time has arrived. And not only is the power coming at warp speed, women are as shocked by their new power as men are threatened.

When I graduated from the University of Virginia Law School a generation ago we had four women among roughly 300 men. Today, across America women are the majority in law, medicine and business schools. No wonder men are in shock, watching their power erode fast.

Not just women but all America feels this rapid power shift after centuries of entrenched paternalism. This tidal wave is so threatening male politicians have been fighting to return to the good ol’ days of subservient women.

In fact, the “war on women” is a last-ditch defensive move by men to protect their frail egos, wounded machismo and fractured identity, so obvious in the futile legislative efforts to hang onto the old paternalistic culture.

But even more interesting: Women are also shocked at the speed of their new power. In an earlier report by Tracy Longo in the Financial Advisor Magazine, a journal for pros, adviser Janet Briaud said “all the women who sign with her firm” were originally “part of a couple.” Later she realized that not only are “about 65% of her clients women,” when she looked more closely she “was even more surprised ... to see where the assets and decision-making were coming from.”

An eye-opener as she pointed: “When I look down the list, one by one, I can see: It’s her money. It’s her money. It’s her money.” A surprised Briaud added: “She has substantial inheritances ... She is the highest breadwinner by far ... There’s another woman doctor ... She’s a business owner ... The influence of women among my clients is tremendous.”

Powerful women are building a new playing field and audience

If the latest election results are any indication, women are waking up and claiming their power, more and more aware of the new reality: “Women control 60% of the wealth ... women represent nearly two-thirds of the U.S. workforce ... more than half of women with business degrees outearn their husbands ... 80% of women will, at some point in their lives, be solely responsible for all household financial decisions ... 70% of married women fire their financial professionals within one year of their husbands’ deaths.”

Yes, that last statistic was a grabber: Proof women want power, want to control not just their health-care decisions but their money and their future. They no longer want men telling them what to do.

As Briaud put it: “This might be more of a female world than we ever imagined.” Yes indeed, there is a new powerful women’s voting bloc that’s demanding more women candidates, more with power stripes and battle scars.

Old men will keep fighting, but the new America needs women leaders

Two powerful women. Both Secretaries of State. The perfect leaders for a new America in a complex, diverse, rapidly changing global economy. Either one: Bill Clinton is already clearing the way for a Hillary candidacy. In fact, both women have long been preparing for the office.

But the real reason is less to do with politics, past or future. This week’s voting stats make clear, 2016 will be more than symbolic. In 2015 the United Nations is hosting the “5th World Conference on Women” building on the last one two decades ago in Beijing. It is certain to loudly underscore the emerging power of women worldwide, just before the 2016 elections.

Demographics is now the biggest driving force in America’s future. And 2016 will be a time women will be demanding more, allied by the rising power of Latinos and Asians. And now after successfully facing down traditional male politicians, it’s less likely social agendas will block the women’s path to power.

Whether old paternalistic politicians, young alpha-male gamers or men with a need to dominate, America has long been governed by men who keep getting us into money messes like Iraq and the 2008 meltdown. Money manager Jeremy Grantham, whose firm manages $100 billion worldwide, said it best in a quarterly letter a few years ago, commenting on how America’s leaders in banking and government are “impatient … management types who focus on what they are doing this quarter or this annual budget.”

Grantham says the world now needs leaders “with a historical perspective who are more thoughtful and more right-brained … but we end up with an army of left-brained immediate doers” which “more or less guarantees that every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always going to miss it.”

America can’t survive as a nation with leaders trapped in an inherent self-destructive tendency, and trapped in denial till it’s too late. The 21st century’s demands women into leadership roles.

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