I like to take lots and lots of numbers and turn them into proprietary concepts and multi-platform content. Three of my longstanding publishing creations: the valuations of sports teams, ranking actors and movie studios on bang for the buck (ROI) and the Forbes Fab 40 (the most valuable sports brands). My most recent idea was Names You Need To Know, which broadened my concept of list creation to include direct input from our audience. I also like to take apart corporate balance sheets to measure earnings quality and have a passion for economics (my MBA thesis at Long Island University was an empirical study on the cause of inflation in which regression analysis showed a significant correlation between the general level of prices and the money supply). Besides being an Executive Editor at Forbes I also have a gig as co-host and Managing Editor of the 3-time New York Emmy award winning Forbes SportsMoney on the YES Network and Fox Sports 1 with my buddies at YES, co-host Bob Lorenz and producer David Alfreds, both of whom have taught me a tremendous amount. I also regularly appear on Fox and CNBC to chat about the business, political and sports issues of the day. One of my favorite times is being a guest every few weeks on Larry Kudlow's radio show on WABC Saturday mornings. Larry has been a great mentor and friend. My brother in arms is Kurt Badenhausen, whom I have worked with for many years and knows more about sports numbers than anyone.

The Biggest Question Bon Jovi Must Answer Before Final Bid For Buffalo Bills

Binding bids for the Buffalo Bills are due this week and the purchase of the NFL team is essentially down to two bidders–the Toronto Group, led by Jon Bon Jovi and including Larry Tenenbaum and the Rogers family, and Buffalo Sabres owner Terry Pegula.

Yes, Donald Trump is also expected to submit a binding bid, but his offer so far is way below the other two groups. And besides, given his involvement with the U.S. Football League and casinos, many people do not believe Trump would be approved by the three-quarters of NFL owners required.

Some of my sources tell me that Pegula may be willing to go to the low-to-mid $900 million range for the team. Thus, to win the bidding Bon Jovi may have to pay around $1 billion.

Jon Bon Jovi (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here is the question he must answer: “Am I willing to play in front of a half-empty Ralph Wilson Stadium for six seasons?” Let’s face it, no matter what Bon Jovi says now, Bills fans will see the Toronto group’s purchase as a step towards moving the team to Canada after the 2019 season.

So, are Bon Jovi and company cool with home gate receipts going from, say, $20 million to $10 million? And stadium advertising and sponsorship revenue also being cut in half, to seven million or so?

They might be, given the league’s new television deals kick in this season (see table below). The Bills overall revenue, $252 million in 2013, would still increase. But the team would have relatively less money for players due to the salary cap formula as defined in league’s collective bargaining agreement?

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.

I don’t know who your sources are but I really don’t believe anything anyone says about which group is bidding what. No one really knows. I am from the Buffalo area and Terry Pegula has not made a public statement. He is not talking to anyone. Smart money says Terry Pegula will be the new owner of the Buffalo Bills. I have heard so much garbage and speculation from the media about the amount of the bids. Did you ever think someone is leaking fake numbers to attempt to get an advantage?

I totally agree Tim!! He will be the most accepted by the NFL in regards to not moving the team. Trump has NFL baggage and the Bon Jovi group is not to be trusted. They have already been called out re their intentions. Pegula is building an empire here in Buffalo and this will be the icing on the cake.

I believe the max the Toronto group would be able to bid is 1.2 billion because that would be the limit Bon Jovi would be able to afford as the controlling partner has to lay out 30% cash of the total bid. I don’t believe Pegula will allow this group to get this team even if they bid the most they are able to bid.

Mike, I believe if they did that they would be doomed. Of course, the trust is looking for a large bid but the Wilson family does not really want this team to be moved and they still have a lot of sway as to who buys the team. They would also have to get past the other NFL owners and win approval by at least 24 of the 32 owners. That will not be an easy task. Most of the other owners prefer the Bills to remain in Buffalo and have publicly stated so. The NFL does not really like to deal with groups. They much prefer a single owner. They have everything they could ask for in Pegula – money and no relocation. I seriously do not believe Toronto would support an NFL team. Their ticket prices would be out of sight and the cost to build a new stadium there would be significantly more than it would cost in Buffalo.

If as you suspect the Bills are sold for between $1 billion and $1.25 billion will this serve as a market correction, following the market upheaval after the Clippers were sold for $2 billion. One would have to believe an NFL franchise in a B market was still worth more than a B NBA franchise in an A market