Investing News

Buying stocks after the various QE programs
were announced by the Federal Reserve was
generally a profitable decision for investors.
To answer the question about whether
the ECB programs will have the same
impact on European stock markets, we
point out some key differences between
the United States then and Europe now.

At any given time, there are always some
bubbly valuations among industries and stocks
that are hot. But overall, looking at valuations,
the party in the stock market may not be just
getting started — but it is not yet close to
being over.

Weather will still be a factor in the March
employment data & the markets may give the economy another
“free pass” for yet another potentially weak
jobs report.
In our view, the Fed would have to see a sharp
slowdown (less than 50,000 jobs per month) or
ramp up (over 300,000 jobs per month) to slow
down or speed up tapering before fall 2014.

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

High-yield bond valuations remain elevated for
a good reason — strong credit quality and low
defaults continue to support the sector.
A closer look at underlying credit quality
indicates high-yield bond prices may remain
well-supported for most of 2014.
We still find lower-rated high-yield bonds and
bank loans offering some attractive opportunities
in the bond market for 2014.

The stock, bond, and commodities markets
appear to have priced in a return to a
positive environment for investors consisting
of stronger economic and job growth
accompanied by a return of some mild inflation.​

The Fed’s target for the fed funds rate in the
long term is lower than in prior rate hike cycles.
The market has already priced in Fed rate
hikes beginning in mid-2015.
Sustained growth in real gross domestic
product (GDP) above 3.0% at any time over
the next three years could elicit an earlier start
to rate hikes by the Fed and/or more rate hikes
once they commence.
The Fed’s communication with investors and
the public remains muddled, at best.

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

Unlike weather-impacted economic data
or geopolitical tensions, the Fed is likely to
reiterate its gradual journey to less bond
market-friendly policy.
A change in the Fed’s forward guidance to
more qualitative measures may pressure bond
prices lower and yields higher as the bond
market prices in uncertainty.​

As the NCAA basketball tournament gets down
to its own sweet sixteen while the rest of
March plays out, it is a good time to reflect on
the sixteen competing drivers of the markets
that may make for an exciting showdown in the
weeks and months to come. There will likely
be some upsets that result in volatility as these
factors face off against each other.

Markets will soon be asking: When will the
Fed raise rates? What measures of inflation,
employment, and other economic indicators
will the Fed be watching most closely? How
fast will rates rise once rate hikes begin?
We expect the FOMC to revamp its overly
complex statement beginning at this week’s
FOMC meeting.
We continue to expect the FOMC to taper
quantitative easing by $10 billion at each
FOMC meeting this year.

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment decision-making tool.

The month of March has historically been
difficult for bond investors.
Given the good start to the bond market so
far in 2014, bond investors should be aware of
seasonal factors that may negatively impact
bond performance.

The ECB made a big bet last week that the
Eurozone economy is picking up fast enough
to avoid the need for any further stimulus.
We are not so sure. Until some key catalysts
emerge, the risks to stocks in Europe may
outweigh the rewards.

In early 2014, harsh winter weather has
replaced policy uncertainty as the biggest
weight on the economy.
Our Beige Book Barometer decreased to +62
in March 2014 from +76 in January 2014, as
weather received 119 mentions.
The Affordable Care Act continues to be a key
concern for Main Street.

The CCI is a weekly measure of the conditions that underpin our outlook for the markets and economy. It provides real-time
insight into the trends that shape our recommended actions to manage portfolios and has proven to be a useful investment
decision-making tool.

We expect uncertainty over the true trajectory of
the economy to keep Treasury yields range bound
over the near term.
We believe investors should remain on guard for
the unwinding of weather-related impacts, which
may push bond prices lower and yields higher.
The predominant impact following colder and
snowier winter weather was higher yields in 2010,
2007, and 1996.

The market will be especially interested in the
unemployment rate this month, because just
a 0.1% drop to 6.5% pushes the rate to the
Fed’s threshold of 6.5%.
Yellen made it clear last week that the Fed
was in no hurry to raise rates when the
unemployment rate crosses the 6.5% threshold.
In our view, the Fed is not likely to raise rates
until late 2015 or even early 2016.

There is no better time to take a fresh look at your investment strategies than the beginning of the new year. And while there is no one-size-fits-all approach to investing for the future, reviewing your goals annually can help you stay on track from month to month--and year to year.

As 2013 draws to a close, the last thing anyone wants to think about is taxes. But if you are looking for potential ways to minimize your tax bill, there’s no better time for planning than before year-end. And, with the higher rates put in place with the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, being tax efficient is more important than ever.

Because you have worked hard to create a secure and comfortable lifestyle for your family and loved ones, you will want to ensure that you have a sound financial strategy that includes trust and estate planning. With some forethought, you may be able to minimize gift and estate taxes and preserve more of your assets for those you care about.

If you’re like many Americans, you probably intend to rely on your employer-sponsored retirement plan savings for a significant portion of your retirement income. So when it comes time to make important decisions, such as what to do with the money in your plan when you change jobs or retire, you should be fully aware of your options...

If you’re currently investing for your children’s college education or are planning to do so in the near future, you may want to consider a state-sponsored prepaid tuition plan. Generally speaking, these plans, which are now available in many states, allow you to pay tomorrow’s tuition bills at today’s tuition rates. In addition...

As interest rates spiked in the second quarter of this year, many bond investors shifted gears from intermediate and long-term bonds to bonds with shorter maturities. The relationship between interest rates and bond prices is just one of many potential risks associated with bond investing. So why consider bonds?

The loss of critical personnel can be life threatening to small businesses; however, it's a risk that life insurance can often mitigate. In fact, life insurance policies are frequently used in plans aimed at making it possible for a business to survive a change of ownership or the loss of a partner, the chief executive or an employee whose creative talent, technical knowledge or salesmanship drives the business...

The continuously shifting investment climate, the sheer number of investment products to choose from and the emergence of employee-driven retirement savings plans, such as 401(k) plans, have all contributed to the increased need for qualified financial advice. No matter what your level of investment experience or sophistication, you may benefit from developing a relationship with a financial advisor...​