A view of strategy, procurement, warships, navies, and world politics. please note its all my work - information may come from elsewhere, and certainly the pictures do, but the analysis is mine, so any flak about it; address it to me, any praise likewise.
I have no problem with defending by debate or being corrected when I am wrong. I hope to someday get some of the ideas published, so any feed back will be of great and most profound assistance.

Sunday, 1 September 2013

August 2013 Thoughts: Ballistic Missile Defence

Ballistic Missiles are not a new
threat any more, they have been a part of warfare since the V-2 first roared
into the sky on a pillar of fire, smoke and anger at a world which refused to
fit a dictator’s vision for it. Ever since that event the evolving forms of
ballistic missiles have maintained a sort of sinister hold on the world and the
public’s interpretation of international relations & global strategy. Even
today the debate about them and their role as the method of delivery for
Britain’s strategic deterrent; the only thing that cannot be doubted is there
effectiveness as a method of delivery – in fact though the arguments for it’s continuation
and the construction of a new class of Ship,
Submersible, Ballistic Missile, Nuclear
Powered (SSBN) to succeed the Vanguard
class. However, whilst this funding is rightly being spent on this strategic
deterrent; the procurement of a defence against these weapons is
stagnated.

Which is a problem as Britain has a
lot to defend, and a lot to defend it against: America is not in range of
Iranian missiles but the UK is, furthermore more nations are procuring them and
as that happens there becomes greater risk of them falling into the hands on
non-state actors (e.g. terrorists) who may not be deterred by theory of
Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) which works so well against state actors.
Whilst such a system might not be the most deadly weapons a terrorist could
use, the very ability to get hold of one and fire it would inflict a tremendous
level of terror. This is a risk magnified when states with such weapons have
internal conflicts erupt as it’s difficult to predict not just the winner, but
who will control the weapons and what will happen to them. This is why it’s
necessary to do a two pronged approach to Ballistic Missile Defence,
maintaining the deterrent but also developing an intercept capability – for
which there are multiple options.

The proposed defences against
ballistic missiles are varied, using a laser fired from a Boeing 747, land
based missiles (of course) and sea based missiles – the difference between all
of them being the pointat which the aim
to intercept the missile. The Boeing 747 is orientated dealing with the
missiles in, although it’s still under development; the ground based missiles
are mostly focused on either terminal or mid phase interception, and the sea
based missiles are theoretically boost phase and terminal phase – but they are
mainly focused on the latter. The sea based systems are currently the most
proven, in that one of the systems, Standard Missile 3 (SM-3)/AEGIS, have been used to intercept satellites &
practice targets successfully and are based on a legacy design which is as
close to a proven program as can be found in modern defence systems[1]. So
which system would best fit Britain; well conceivably any of them, but as there
are now existing land based long range air defence batteries within the UK
armed forces, and the costs are still mounting on the airborne laser…furthermore
there already in service capabilities which could be built upon.

For the sea based system there are
the Type 45 Daring class Area Air
Defence (AAD) Destroyers, these have two radars, a long range search radar, the
S1850ML-Band system which provides it
with excellent long range warning; but it’s the other radar which is something
special. The Royal Navy (RN) has possibly what is the best radar in service in
the field of sea based Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD), the Sampson radar, it
is a two plane solid state phased array radar that rotates 30x a minute so that
even without electronic steering of the beam (which it can do) no sector will
escape scanning for more than a second. Therefore it builds a very accurate
image of the world around it; well the over half a million kilometres squared. So
with such a set of radars mounted on a vessel which also includes a very stable
power supply and an extremely powerful set of computers; the RN would seem to
have Britain in a position half way to the finish line.

There are problems though, the Type
45s are fitted for but not with 16 Strategic length Vertical Launch System
(VLS) cells[2]
– these are the length required to support a missile big enough to intercept
Ballistic Missiles. There are two options for that VLS that would be
compatible; the European Sylver A70 and the American Mk41/Mk57 VLS – however
these systems themselves generate a further problem, as each system comes with
it’s own range of other missiles that can be operated from it – not just BMD
missiles, but also cruise missiles and more.

The Sylver A70 VLS would seem the
obvious choice as it is the A50 which the Type 45s are already fitted with. However,
it is only in service with one navy on one class of ship, the French FREMM
Frigate, meaning that it isn’t widely tested nor widely resourced – making it
more expensive long term as parts will be more specialist to procure. The
biggest problem though is the fact that the BMD system that goes with it,
doesn’t matter if it’s called Aster 45 or Aster 30 Block 2 BMD is still under
development and everything is categorised as ‘potential contributor’ – it could
be a really good system, but by the time it may enter service the Type 45s
could have already served half their expected life… However, until then the RN
could share a the 500km/270nautical mile range SCALP Naval (the surface
launched version of the Storm Shadow which is expected in service with RAF
Typhoons in 2014 – it’s already in service with RAF Tornadoes) to provide them
with a tactical land attack capability. In summary, it’s a lot of promise, a
lot of potential, a very big chance to spend money to not get much back…

In contrast the Mk41/Mk57 VLS (Mk57
is supposed to be its new & improved successor, it’s currently looking like
a Fairey Albacore situation, better than its predecessor but not by enough to
be really desired) is possibly the widest employed VLS in service today,
serving 13 countries & 22 different classes of ship. Furthermore, it’s the
system which has always been given as what the Type 45 had the space for –
something which is not just due to its credentials for launching the SM-3 BMD
system, which as has already been discussed is in service with two nations, has
shot down satellites (a very useful secondary capability considering the
reliance modern warfare has on them) and is in use by two navy’s with another
looking into it, so the RN would not be left to carry the costs on its own…and
there would be other nations with which to pool supplies in emergencies. The
reason it was in the frame from the beginning was because the Mk41/Mk57 brings
flexibility, it brings the RUM-139 Vertically
Launched - Anti-Submarine Rocket (VL-ASROC) which can assist
tremendously with Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) as when the helicopter runs out
of torpedoes, instead of it having to fly back and loose the target in order to
reload, the ship launches the torpedo using the data from the helicopter. Most
importantly though the Mk41/Mk57 is the system that launches the 1,700
km/900nautical mile ranged Block IV Tomahawk cruise missile (that’s over 3x the
range of Storm Shadow), a system which is already used by RN submarines. Simply
put the MK41/57 would turn the Type 45 from an AAD into a General Purpose
Missile Destroyer (GPMD).

Even if 16 cells are all that can
be fitted the Mk41 VLS would be useful, as 16 cells could be translated into 6
SM-3’s, 2 ASROCs and 8 Tomahawk TLAMs which would be a very good addition to
the Type 45’s already capable 48 SAMs; something which could also be changed
should CAMM replace the Aster 15, after all four CAMM can fit in the same cell
as one ASTER 15 meaning the missile load could become 37 Aster 30, 36 CAMM for
the same 48 cells. However, this would not be it’s only form/load; if going to
sea as UK Patrol ship (where the vessel would be unlikely to use TLAMs) the
destroyer might be loaded as a BMD/ASW vessel with 10 SM-3s and 6 ASROCs
alongside the 37 Aster 30s & 36 CAMMs; or alternatively she might be part
of a task group being sent to launch a strike, in which case whilst one vessel
might carry 12 SM-3s and 4 TLAMs, the others would carry 16 TLAMS[3].
Finally, there is the black scenario – a RN destroyer operating in the pacific
far from resupply uses up all it’s missiles, with a MK41 VLS that’s already
fitted for SM-3 missiles she could be reloaded (conceivably with minor
modifications) with SM-6 missiles the new standard missile air defence system. It’s
not a full proof solution, but it provides an option for worst case scenarios.
This is why that while Sylver does offer some capability, the Mk41 beats it as
a strategic VLS for procurement by the RN because of the diversity of weapons.

The radars & design make them
perfect vessels for BMD – which would give them another role they could excel
at; the choice of VLS could make the Type 45s so much more. The Sylver locks it
in, whereas the MK 41 allows it to evolve. Furthermore it would set a
precedence and maybe that would help with future arguments over escort numbers,
because with 6 ships for AAD/BMD/Strike it could well seem sensible to expand
building plans and at least provide more extensive numbers for AAD & Strike;
perhaps increasing the Type 26s, or building a lot more general purpose Type
45s. Britain is an island nation, so often that is left as some de-facto reason
to invest in a navy; not in this case though, the sea is Britain’s strategic
depth, we don’t have Marshal Winter we have Admirals Storm & Wave – BMD
making use of that depth is the best way to provide Britain and our overseas
territories which depend upon us (as we benefit from the resources within their
domain) to provide security for Britain.

[1]
The system is already in service with the United States Navy and the Japanese
Maritime Self Defence Force, with Turkey considering it.

[2]
This would be in addition to their 48 Air Defence length Sylver A50 Cells +
some sources have said in the past it was up to 24 cells – whatever the truth,
between the current VLS and the superstructure where currently the Harpoon SSMs
would go, but conceivably they could be moved, and in fact two of the class
already aren’t fitted with them.

[3] if
just 3 Type 45s were present that would be 44 TLAMs or more than the collective
TLAM load out of the RN submarines