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Arizona, Colorado primaries are last, best tests of anti-Washington sentiment

Already in this election, two Senators have lost their bids for re-nomination -- the largest number of incumbents to fall since 1980.

A third -- Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln -- seemed certain to join that group as recently as a month ago but managed to pull off a stunning come-from-behind runoff victory on June 8 over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and a trio of powerful national unions supporting him.

Two more Senators face real primary fights in the coming months, races that should give us a very clear idea of just how strongly people want change in Washington.

In Colorado, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) has done everything right since being plucked from anonymity and appointed to the Senate early last year; he has raised millions of dollars and run a series of TV ads that aim to remove the Washington taint from him.

But, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) used his strength among party insiders to claim a victory at the state assembly last month and is positioning himself as the anti-establishment candidate in the race.

Arizona Sen. John McCain's (R) primary against former Rep. J.D. Hayworth is shaping up along those same lines with McCain running the better funded and more structurally sound campaign and Hayworth doing everything he can to portray himself as an outsider to the political process.

If either Bennet or McCain lose, it suggests that good campaign mechanics can't hold up against the flood of unrest directed at the nation's capital. If both lose, all-out panic -- for both parties' incumbents -- will set in.

How do they fit in to our look at the ten best remaining primaries across the country?

To the Line!

10. Kansas Senate (Republican primary, Aug. 3): The battle between Reps. Jerry Moran (R) and Todd Tiahrt (R) is a race between two longtime conservative lawmakers in which each is grasping for evidence to paint the other as insufficiently conservative. The race, which had been flying below the radar, got a bit of a national bump last week when former deputy White House chief of staff Karl Rove not only endorsed Tiahrt but launched a stinging criticism of Moran. Even so, the race to replace Sen. Sam Brownback (R) remains Moran's to lose.

9. Minnesota Governor (Democratic primary, Aug. 10): Rarely do you have a former senator running against a party-endorsed candidate in a primary but that's exactly what's happening in Minnesota. Former Sen. Mark Dayton is attempting a political comeback after retiring in 2006 but state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher is the choice of the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. Dayton and another primary candidate, former state Rep. Matt Entenza, bring plenty of money to the primary and are already on TV, while Kelliher has yet to go up with ads. A University of Minnesota poll from last month had Dayton leading Kelliher 38 percent to 26 percent but much of that can be chalked up to his name identification edge. Still, most smart observers expect Dayton to emerge.

8. Alaska Senate (R, Aug. 24): We're still trying to figure out if attorney Joe Miller is the real deal in this primary with Sen. Lisa Murkowski but it's starting to look like he might be. Miller was endorsed by former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) earlier this month and First Dude Todd Palin has been behind him for months; this week Miller earned the backing of the Tea Party Express. If the Club for Growth jumps on board -- and ithe group is looking at the race -- then Miller could be in business. Don't forget: Murkowski supported the TARP bailout in 2008.

7. Michigan Governor (R, Aug. 3): With Democrats all-but-ceding the state to Republicans in the fall, the GOP primary takes on added meaning. Most neutral observers see it as a race between Rep. Pete Hoekstra and free-spending businessman Rick Snyder but state Attorney General Mike Cox and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, who ran for the Senate in 2006, are also credible candidates.

6. Florida Senate (D, Aug. 24): Two months ago, Florida's marquee race was the Senate primary battle between former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (formerly-known-as-R). Now, Crist has gone independent, Rubio is coasting to the GOP nod, and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) finds himself in a serious race against billionaire real estate developer Jeff Greene (D). Greene has been pouring big money into his unorthodox campaign -- running ads in D.C.? -- and while he has serious liabilities of his own, polls show him running neck-and-neck with Meek. This one is going to get ugly.

5. New Hampshire Senate (R, Sept. 14): Earlier this week Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte was put in the uncomfortable position of having to testify in front of a legislative panel during the heat of a campaign. That gave her opponents occasion to continue hanging the Ponzi scheme that the panel is investigating around her neck. Businessman Bill Binnie is the big-money contender here and although polling suggests Ayotte is the still the favorite, most Republicans expect a serious race.

4. Florida Governor (R, Aug. 24): For months we had heard that state Attorney General Bill McCollum's (R) campaign wasn't engendering the sort of energy that the party had hoped. (McCollum, who has twice run and lost Senate races, is widely regarded as a nice man but an uncharismatic candidate.) But, no one seemed willing to challenge him. And then Rick Scott, the uber wealthy former head of the Columbia/HCA hospital chain, came along. Scott has dumped better than $11 million of his own money into the race and, by all accounts, has soared into a clear lead over McCollum. McCollum is trying to fight back by putting out the major controversies -- including a massive fraud settlement -- in Scott's background on full display.

3. Colorado Senate (R, Aug. 10): Whatever is in the water in Florida seems to have found its way to over Colorado where frontrunner Jane Norton (R) is now desperately trying to knock down a challenge from Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R). Buck wasn't supposed to go anywhere but his outsider bid has struck a chord with the conservative grassroots, garnered national attention and forced Norton into a race to the right. (Witness her latest web video on the war on terror.) Norton's got the establishment backing, but right now, Buck's got the momentum.

2. Colorado Senate (D, Aug. 10): Bennet should win, Romanoff could win. A fascinating test case about the toxicity of the environment.

1. Arizona Senate (R, Aug. 24): The McCain-Hayworth battle has been nasty for months and will only get more so in the final 60 days. The central question for Hayworth: how can he grow his support beyond the 35 percent (or so) of the most conservative primary voters?

I rarely answer a transparent fluff Astroturf like rickedelson’s but the “hike our trails and breathe our mountain air” was just too much.

Andrew Romanoff, in a necessary effort to differentiate himself from the centrist non-politician Bennet, has been moving far to the left of his former moderate positions, and away from the bipartisan cooperation he was known for when he was Speaker of the House. While this has made him even more popular with D party activists who filled the nominating convention, it won’t help him at all with the more moderate primary voters.

He certainly would not be taking his new positions had Gov Ritter appointed him instead of Bennet to fill the rest of Salazar’s term. Many thoughtful, knowledgeable people think the reason he’s running is simple spite—he felt it was his turn and was insulted when Ritter chose someone else (he probably would have been OK had Ritter choosen Denver Mayer John Hickenlooper, but not a non-dues-paying outsider like Bennet).

Here’s what I wrote several months ago when the choice was first announced:

“I very much like that Ritter took a chance. Bennet's
an ‘out of the box’choice—a non-politician who’s
an intelligent problem-solver with a history of
bringing competing factions together. Like most, I
expected Hickenlooper [Denver Mayor, now D’s
Gov candidate since Ritter decided not to run for
reelection]. Thought Ritter might go as far as risking
Romanoff (not 'safe'—he has no achievements
outside of the legislature and is too young to go
directly to the Senate), but would have been OK with
either. Choice of Bennet surprised me and everybody,
but his variety of successes, obvious intelligence, and
history of developing innovative, creative solutions
to whatever issues he’s faced, are great if unusual
qualifications for the Senate.

I haven’t seen anything to change my mind. I always liked Romanoff before, even though he’s always been an utterly conventional career politician. Not so much now though…I predict an easy Bennet primary win and likely win in the general (mainly because of the R’s uninspiring choices)

This article is by David Barstow, Laura Dodd, James Glanz, Stephanie Saul and Ian Urbina.

"An examination by The New York Times highlights the chasm between the oil industry’s assertions about the reliability of its blowout preventers and a more complex reality. It reveals that the federal agency charged with regulating offshore drilling, the Minerals Management Service, repeatedly declined to act on advice from its own experts on how it could minimize the risk of a blind shear ram failure.

You constantly PROVE why the democratic party is NOT ready to have a black President.

You are obsessed with hate and racial divisions.

This is no way to govern a nation of 300 million people -

When the democrats attack people based on race, and constantly seek out racial issues, they PROVE that the democrats can not handle having a black President.

The issues that are important to the nation are jobs, reducing spending, and reducing Obama's trillion dollar deficit, NOT trying to provoke a racially divisive discussion at every chance - and the slurs used by the democrats demostrate this.

EVERY TIME BROADWAYJOE USES A SLUR TO REFER TO THE TEA PARY, BROADWAYJOE PROVES THAT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS NOT READY FOR A BLACK PRESIDENT.

The democrats are the ones who refuse to put racial politics and racially divisive issues behind them.

Chris, you and everyone else in the DC area are missing the boat in the Colorado Democratic primary. Bennet is the insider, imposed on us by President Obama and outgoing Governor Bill Ritter. A former hedge fund manager, he's taking PAC money and has become the 8th biggest recipient of financial industry donations in just his freshman year. Romanoff is the anti-DC outsider, who worked his way up to earn our support and become the first Democratic Speaker of our state House of Representatives in 30 years. He takes no PAC money, but he does have overwhelming support among the local grassroots volunteers who worked hard for Obama two years ago.

The question here in Colorado is who is going to choose our nominee: the DC crowd or us locals here in Colorado. The only folks who think Bennet "should" be nominated are basing their views on what the read in each others' columns. Why don't you leave the DC smog, come out and hike our trails and breathe our mountain air, and talk with some actual Coloradans? I'm sure you'll return with a different outlook.

"Quality counts too." Oh, that gets the ironic post of the day award. I figure I'm the farmer's market of posts and 37th is ConAgra

On topic. Good list of races, CC (with his evil minions Aaron and Felcia--bet you thought you'd never be called that!) This is the kind of line I like. Finding 20 ways to say Gov. Brownback must get boring. I'm curious about interesting House primaries. That'd be a fun focus, though House races tend to be intensely local.

Watch the angry racist try to demonstrate superiority. It is a typical reaction in the animal world when two creatures meet. DDunce usually prefers to sniff at the loins but that is obviously not going to work here.

Take the rest of the day off Ped. your brain must be tired after three whole "thoughts". Maybe you could find a nice air conditioned room somewhere to lie down and nurse your grievance and envy back from the abyss of enmity.

I suppose you will continue with your petty insults and one line idiocies for the remainder of the weekend. After all, that is your "life". you could work on that girls' garage article you have been putting off.

Moderators, I know you're out there, could you please get rid of 37th and bumblingberry/Moonbat?

The former is just jamming the board with triple-spaced junk and the latter is only here to fling feces. Neither contributes to the blog and both seek to shut down discussion. This is a political blog, not a support group for unemployed mental cases and drug addicts.

Wa-Po's Sally Quinn is the consummate D.C. insider, so I would feel confident taking this to the bank. Quinn just told MSNBC: "I think it will happen."

As a fan of both Biden and Hillary, this observer thinks this executive branch musical chairs would be a brilliant move for all concerned, including Barack Obama -- as POTUS and as Democrat-in-Chief.

Biden has become the leading voice on Mideast peace, and could broker a two-state solution as a forceful and effective SecState. He'd also continue to be available to Obama as a trusted consiglieri -- but this time, with his own independent power base. He's proven his gravitas, and he's a working persons hero. You don't hear much about the "gaffe machine" anymore. He's just for real.

And Hillary would be positioned to co-opt and disarm the Tea Party brigade as a campaining VEEP -- and setting herself up to become the first female president in '12. As for the Bill Factor -- well, who knows? The Al Gore solution? Just kidding, Madam Secretary...

Democrats everywhere have got to be crossing their fingers that this bit of well-placed D.C. gossip turns out to be true.

UPDATE: Asked about the Quinn column, Hillary just laughed and said, "Let's stick to Kurdistan."

New York - Nevada's jobless rate hit a record high last month and and is now the highest in the nation, the first time in four years that Michigan doesn't hold that distinction, according to a government report released Friday. The Silver State's unemployment rate climbed to 14% in May, the highest in the state since 1976 when the Labor Department began collecting the data.

President Obama went to the groundbreaking of a road project in Columbus, Ohio, Friday to show that his massive stimulus package is still churning out jobs -- a "good news" story that was anything but for some construction workers who were trying to figure out how to make up for the payday they lost due to the president's visit. The workers were told not to report to their construction project at a nearby hospital Friday, because the Secret Service was shutting it down for security reasons. They also were told that they would not get paid

Any new bad news from Chris Cillizza for Democrats while we were goofing off?

Possibilities:

New Rasmussen poll showing all Democrats polling worse than last Rasmussen poll.

That Barton thing is already comimg back to haunt the Dems. They pushed it too hard for 24hrs. Obama to apologize to Barton and the nation.

Dems are not supporting armed insurrection enough in Nevada - elections are always local and the NRA is a wild card in the west. One Armed Bandits go big for Angle!

The south loves Iced Tea and the dumb Dems didn't take that into consideration when saying the Tea Bag people are nutters. Dixie is incensed. Lipton Tea lobbyists play key role. Remaining Dem incumbent out! Death of a Blue Dog!

DRILL BABY DRILL goes viral with a new Lady Gaga video and the nation is back in step with Palin. - new book already in works - Ghost Writer Chosen.

Billionth posting on anti-Democratic-Incumbent Fever going national and local is achieved. Fix honored at National Tea Party Convention in Nevada.

The idea that the economy will magically find some optimal equillibrium if left completely alone has to be just about the stupidest idea since harvest gods and good luck charms.

The free market doesn't exactly have a sterling track record of producing socially desirable outcomes, and the zombies' response to this fact is to deny the social undesirability of being a banana republic.

Romanoff is the best chance for the Democrats to win the race in November. He is the most exciting candidate in the country and well liked in the entire state. Except for lack of corporate money he has no weaknesses going into the primary. In a very short period of time he will be in the Senate leadership and Majority Leader by his second term.

So August is the next big month. I think June 22, this coming Tuesday, presents some good primaries as well. Here in my home state of NC, Sec. of State Elaine Marshall vs. Ex. State Sen. & NDSC endorsed Cal Cunningham. It's been a good one that has gotten nasty of over whom is taking dirty money from whom. Cunningham seems to the National party favorite while Marshall is the state party favorite. Marshall has pandered to miniorities and women and Cunningham is relying on national endorsements mostly and money from outside the state to win. It's a dirty primary and whomever wins begins as the underdog against US Sen. Richard Burr. Burr is a great fundraiser without a lot of negatives in the state and a great campaigner. Great primary though.

Those who are convinced that the government has to "do something" when the economy has a problem almost never bother to find out what actually happens when the government intervenes.

The very fact that we still remember the stock market crash of 1929 is remarkable, since there was a similar stock market crash in 1987 that most people have long since forgotten.

What was the difference between these two stock market crashes? The 1929 stock market crash was followed by the most catastrophic depression in American history, with as many as one-fourth of all American workers being unemployed. The 1987 stock market crash was followed by two decades of economic growth with low unemployment.

But that was only one difference. The other big difference was that the Reagan administration did not intervene in the economy after the 1987 stock market crash-- despite many outcries in the media that the government should "do something."

Right here and right now there is a widespread belief that the unregulated market is what got us into our present economic predicament, and that the government must "do something" to get the economy moving again. FDR's intervention in the 1930s has often been cited by those who think this way.

What is on that one page in "Out of Work" that could change people's minds? Just a simple table, giving unemployment rates for every month during the entire decade of the 1930s.

Those who think that the stock market crash in October 1929 is what caused the huge unemployment rates of the 1930s will have a hard time reconciling that belief with the data in that table.

Although the big stock market crash occurred in October 1929, unemployment never reached double digits in any of the next 12 months after that crash. Unemployment peaked at 9 percent, two months after the stock market crashed-- and then began drifting generally downward over the next six months, falling to 6.3 percent by June 1930.

This was what happened in the market, before the federal government decided to "do something."

What the government decided to do in June 1930-- against the advice of literally a thousand economists, who took out newspaper ads warning against it-- was impose higher tariffs, in order to save American jobs by reducing imported goods.

This was the first massive federal intervention to rescue the economy, under President Herbert Hoover, who took pride in being the first President of the United States to intervene to try to get the economy out of an economic downturn.

Within six months after this government intervention, unemployment shot up into double digits-- and stayed in double digits in every month throughout the entire remainder of the decade of the 1930s, as the Roosevelt administration expanded federal intervention far beyond what Hoover had started.

Another new low for the President in Rasmussen’s approval ratings poll — only 41 percent of likely voters say they approve of the Obama’s job as commander-in-chief. Not only that, the number of voters who say they “strongly” disapprove of the President is closing in on a majority: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 25% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-six percent (46%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -21 (see trends).

1) Obama is all tele-prompter
2) Obama is weak
3) Obama is tone deaf
4) Obama has done nothing for the Gulf
5) Big government can't do anything right
6) Oil companies are only good
7) Keep government hands off private business
8) Regulations and legislation can only do harm
9) Whatever the government does is not enough - I guess 20 Billion was real money even in Washington.

______________________________________

This is how the democrats govern - it is all about mocking - and not taking issues seriously.

The democrats are completely IRRESPONSIBLE -

and UNQUALIFIED TO GOVERN.

Anyone who thinks Obama is doing a good job in the Gulf doesn't know what they are talking about.

AND yes, Obama really, really hurt himself with the Oval Office address the other night.

"Arizona, Colorado primaries are last, best tests of anti-Washington sentiment"

Chris let it rest - move on - take a chill pill....

How long was Bennet an incumbent? He must be real Washington insider by now!

Why don't you dedicate some real thinking and screen time to the revolution within the Republican Party and let the tales of bad news for the Democratic Party rest for a week.

The "Extreme Right"TM is taking over one of two parties you can report on and you don't have the cojones ( immigrants are taking over - lets run to the border to defend ourselves ) to cover it properly.

If you need the names of some colorful characters that advocate armed insurrection ( Google Sharron Angle), separating the union (see Governor of Texas), support BP over the citizens of the Gulf ( Bachmann with two Ns). Let me know b/c the list is truly a gold mine for the right kind of political reporter. Be bolder than Chuck Todd! If that was really possible! :)

Has there been any recent polling on the Arizona race? Hayworth had pulled close, but the last two polls (according to wikipedia) had McCain leading by 12 and 26. Although a poll taken around with that 26 point poll was taken had McCain with a 5 point lead. Those two were in mid April. The 12 point one was in mid May.