Iraq - A Brutal War, Whatever The Label

"THIS IS far graver than Vietnam. If we leave and there's no civil
war, that's a victory." William Odon, former head of the US national
security agency, is more in touch with the reality of Iraq than George
Bush and Tony Blair.

Blair is seeking to 're-label' the war in order to sell the idea of
further involvement of British troops and resources in Iraq. The 'first
conflict' to remove Saddam Hussein is now won, he said, but a 'new
conflict' against 'global terrorism' is now unfolding in Iraq, the new
crucible of international terrorism.

Yet terrorism did not really exist there before the invasion. Moreover,
what we see in Iraq is not simply terrorism but a nationalist resistance
against occupying forces. Blair has, in effect, declared a new war without
any debate in parliament or in the cabinet.

His absurd claims were made at the end of one of the most bloody weeks
in Iraq. Three hundred were killed last week, including three Kurdish and
a US hostage barbarically beheaded on television. Over 10,000 civilians
and more than 1,000 occupation troops have died so far.

Blair's promise of a new period of carnage and mayhem is against the
background of an almost universal condemnation of the 'first conflict' -
and scorn for him and those who supported the war.

A YouGov poll last weekend showed that support for the war is at its
lowest, with just 38% now believing it was justified, while 52% think it
was wrong. This compares to 66% who supported the war and 29% who opposed
it when US and British forces invaded in April 2003. According to a
Guardian/ICM poll, 71% want to see the troops withdrawn.

Elections

OPPOSITION HAS grown as each revelation shatters the false prospectus
on which the war was fought. Leaked reports show that Blair was warned by
foreign secretary, Jack Straw, and British diplomats of the catastrophic
consequences of the aftermath of any invasion to topple Saddam.

Even a 'hero' of the conflict, British officer, Tim Collins, whose
picture is said to hang in the Oval office of the US president, declared
that the war was either an example of "gross incompetence" or
was "simply a cynical war". Straw, without a trace of irony, has
highlighted one achievement: the setting up of football leagues in Iraq!

No part of Iraq is 'safe' for British, US or other occupying troops.
Even in the heavily patrolled 'green zone', coalition forces have been
advised to walk around in pairs.

Kofi Annan, UN general secretary, bluntly stated that the original
invasion was 'illegal'. Elections, if they go ahead in January, would not
be considered 'legitimate'. The US and Britain have quite clearly decided
to pursue a policy of 'Vietnamisation', handing political power to stooges
while attempting to construct a viable Iraqi state machine.

If elections go ahead in January, they will be like those being
undertaken in Afghanistan, where whole swathes of the country will not
participate. Fallujah, Ramadi, Sadr City in Baghdad, and many other areas
are controlled by the Iraqi opposition.

It now seems that the US will attempt to complete what it failed to do
in April: the military occupation of Fallujah to 'root out' Sunni
'terrorists'. It is no more likely to succeed, even if the US manages to
occupy the city - with hundreds and possibly thousands of victims the
result. A guerrilla-type resistance will follow from this which, if it is
joined by Shias in Sadr City, for instance, will completely tie down the
140,000 US troops presently in Iraq.

Quagmire

RATHER THAN supporting a 'new conflict', with unforeseen consequences,
some capitalist commentators, in the Financial Times for instance, have
urged Bush and Blair to rapidly withdraw their forces from Iraq. The
Socialist Party supports the withdrawal of the troops. But as we have
pointed out many times and, as the lessons of Vietnam underlined, it is
easy for imperialism to go in but much more difficult to get out of a
'quagmire'.

On a capitalist basis, one consequence of a rapid withdrawal could be a
bloody ethnic or religious conflict which will put into the shade the
horrors which Iraq has witnessed since the US invasion.

The elites of Iraq, whether Shia, Sunni, Kurdish, Turkomen, etc, will
seek to enhance their own position, setting one ethnic or religious group
against another in order to secure power, income and prestige.

The beheading of the Kurdish hostages is just a small indication of the
horrors which could be visited on the people of Iraq on the basis of the
maintenance of landlordism and capitalism, and the ethnic and religious
divisions that go with it.

This is why a democratic and equitable solution to the problems of the
country is only possible with the working class in the lead, uniting all
groupings on the basis of a socialist and democratic programme.