The UK Independence Party remain on course for a stunning haul of eight Assembly seats at the next election – and the Lib Dems set to lose four of their five AMs, according to a new poll.

A YouGov survey for the Wales Governance Centre and ITV Wales appears to show Nigel Farage's party has retained its momentum in Wales from the European elections, which saw it narrowly miss out to Labour on topping the poll, while the Welsh Liberal Democrats are projected to lose all their AMs apart from leader Kirsty Williams.

It also continues a trend of gradually sliding support for Labour, with the party’s support slipping in voting intentions for both the 2016 Cardiff Bay and Westminster elections next year.

The Wales Barometer poll, published today in Professor Roger Scully’s Elections in Wales blog, was the first after YouGov changed their method for gathering voting intentions.

For the 2016 Assembly elections, Labour lose two points since the last May poll, slipping to 37% for the constituency vote and one point on the regional list to 34% - translating to the loss of one of their current 30 seats.

But it would be Ukip that would see the most stunning rise, with a three point rise since May in the constituency vote to 13% and a two-point rise to 16% on the regional list - which would translate into eight seats from its current zero.

That would come mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems, who are predicted to lose four of their five AMs, with only Brecon and Radnorshire AM and leader Kirsty Williams surviving the massacre.

While the Tories and Plaid Cymru have both seen marginal rises in both the constituency and regional list votes, both are projected to lose seats in 2016 on the basis of the poll.

Prof Scully said: “These projections indicate the possibility, on the results implied by the current poll, of UKIP becoming a significant force within the National Assembly, and largely doing so at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.”

Labour saw a 2% slip in its Westminster vote to 41% - its lowest poll level since 2010 - while the Tories saw a 3% spike to 25%, its highest Welsh rating since the last election.

Ukip also saw a 1% rise to 14%, Plaid remained static at 11% and Lib Dems saw a two-point slide to 5% - it’s lowest rating in two years.

If translated into seats, Labour would see a boost of two Westminster seats in next year’s election to a total of 28, while the Lib Dems would lose two of their three and the others would remain unchanged with Tories on eight, Plaid Cymru with three and Ukip with none.

Prof Scully said: “Overall, this is a good poll for the Conservatives and UKIP, a solid one for Plaid Cymru, and yet more bad news for the Liberal Democrats.

“As for Wales’ long-dominant party: this poll confirms that Labour’s position in Wales has declined significantly over the last year, but that they still remain well in the lead.

“While Labour look more vulnerable than they did throughout 2011-13, the other parties must still look very enviously at their ratings.”

A Welsh Labour spokesman said: “The 2015 General Election presents a clear choice for people in Wales, between a Tory-led Government giving tax breaks to millionaires, or a Labour Government committed to tackling the cost of living crisis.

"Welsh Labour, through schemes like Jobs Growth Wales, has made great strides in improving our economy, but we need a Labour Government in Westminster to make sure the recovery is secure and works for families across Wales.”

A Welsh Conservative spokesman said: “This poll shows Welsh Conservative support is growing amid recognition that our long term economic plan for jobs and growth is delivering for people in Wales.

“The only two occasions in the past 60 years when Labour has polled as poorly as this ahead of a General Election in Wales - were under the disastrous leaderships of Michael Foot and Gordon Brown.

“Under Ed Miliband and Carwyn Jones, Labour lacks the answers to many of the problems facing the country and can only offer more borrowing, higher taxes and more debt.”

A Plaid spokeswoman said: “It is encouraging to see strong support for Plaid Cymru following a recent poll showing the highest level of support for Plaid Cymru since 2009.

“The growing disillusionment in Wales of the same old politics from the Westminster establishment parties and a growing desire for a new Welsh way, is contributing to more and more people turning to Plaid Cymru for an alternative.”

A Welsh Liberal Democrat spokesman said: “The Welsh Liberal Democrats have ensured every school in Wales now receives over £900 for each of our poorest pupils to make our society fairer; while in Westminster, we are fixing our economy and ensuring that the lowest paid workers in Wales don’t pay a single penny of Income Tax.

"We will continue to campaign on our proud record of delivery for the people of Wales”.

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