US and Pakistan locked in a ‘drone marriage’

Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst. He writes for RT, Sputnik and TomDispatch, and is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. Born in Brazil, he's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of "Globalistan" (2007), "Red Zone Blues" (2007), "Obama does Globalistan" (2009) and "Empire of Chaos" (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is "2030", also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.

Pakistani protesters shout anti-US slogans during a demonstraion in Karachi on October 23, 2013, against US drone attacks in the Pakistani tribal region. (AFP Photo / Asif Hassan) / AFP

Obama didn’t even mention “drones” when talking to the media after his meeting with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. So is it all Islamabad’s fault? Not really.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif hit his meeting with US
President Barack Obama in the White House with an overwhelming
priority; please, Mr. President, stop your drone war in my
country.

Behind closed doors this Wednesday, Sharif may have
stressed Hellfire missile logic made no sense even under the
wobbly framework of the Global War on Terror (GWOT) – which the
Obama administration, in trademark newspeak, has rebranded
Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO). He may have said
OCO-enabled droning is in fact the biggest obstacle to peace in
Pakistan.

This is the official White House spin on what Sharif and Obama
discussed. It’s not exactly uplifting. The droning is scheduled
to go on. Obama didn’t mention “drones” when talking to
the media; only vague platitudes about “respecting Pakistan’s
sovereignty” and telling Sharif should “check these
incidents inside Pakistan and stopping the export of
terrorism.” But this does not mean Islamabad blew the
meeting.

Double tap and hang five

Just before the Obama-Sharif summit, Amnesty International
released a devastating report not only questioning the
trademark Obama administration legalese supporting the drone
attacks on Pakistan’s tribal areas, but also stating the obvious;
those responsible – from joystick operators in the Nevada desert
to the White House – may have to stand trial for war crimes.

And this is not even the most damning report already published.
Compare it to the September 2012 joint investigation by Stanford
Law School and the New York University School of Law, Living Under Drones, which concluded
that only 2% of those incinerated by a Hellfire missile were
“terrorists.” Many were victims of the dreaded “double
tap” - the second strike that invariably kills scores of
civilian onlookers and rescue workers.

Miram Shah, in the Pakistani tribal areas, only 16 kilometers
from the Afghan border, qualifies as the drone capital of the
world. In Miram Shah, Hellfire missiles have incinerated, among
others, a bakery, a school for girls and a foreign currency
market. The Pakistani Army disabled the local cell network, and
the Taliban closed Internet cafes; too many young guns watching
porn. The Obama administration maintains the Hellfire feast is
“surgical” and “contained” – and has killed
“dozens” of al-Qaeda and Taliban. To Sharif, Obama at best
admitted “mistakes were made.”

Sharif, in principle, holds a strong position in Pakistan's
National Assembly, mostly representing the powerful, heavily
populated Punjab (from which, incidentally, most of the Pakistani
Army comes from). He has called an “all parties conference” to
try to solve Pakistan’s terrorism dilemma. That implies talking
to the Taliban.

The leader of the Taliban (or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, to give
the organization its full name), Hakimullah Mehsud, has made it
very clear where he is coming
from.

Essentially, the Taliban regards Islamabad as a bunch of
infidels, and American stooges to boot; that’s why they are at
war. It's as if Mehsud had had access to this report, according
to which Islamabad has “secretly” backed the CIA drone offensive.

What the Taliban wants is Sharia law, which by the way the
absolute majority of Pakistan’s population rejects.
To make it even more complicated, no one knows for sure if the
Taliban (which denies it) or some rogue faction is behind a
recent wave of suicide and car bombings, including a horrific
attack on Qissa Khwani bazaar – the Storyteller’s Market – in
Peshawar, the queen of Pashtun cities.

The fact remains that what’s happening now is just a prelude of
the jockeying for position ahead of the US alleged withdrawal
from Afghanistan in late 2014.

After meeting with Sharif, Obama’s cryptic emphasis of being
“confident” of a solution “that is good for
Afghanistan, but also helps to protect Pakistan over the long
term” only obfuscates what is already an intractable
question.
The simplistic logic in Washington is that “stability” in
Pakistan after 2014 will “protect” Afghanistan from becoming a
jihadist paradise again.

At the same time, Washington and Islamabad dream of some sort of
power-sharing between whoever succeeds Hamid Karzai in Kabul and
the Afghan Taliban. And that would make the Afghanistan-Pakistan
cross-border jihad magically vanish.

What this rosy scenario forgets is that the key issue is not
jihad, but what the armed Pashtuns on both sides of the
artificial, British-invented border want.

The Afghan Taliban want to get back to power (and may have quite
a good shot at it). The Pakistani Taliban want Sharia law (it
won’t happen) and don’t have the slightest chance of getting to
power. As for the US “managing” what goes on
simultaneously in Afghanistan and Pakistan, that’s the biggest
joke of the 21st century.

Look who’s talking

So let’s grab a cup of green tea, as they do in Peshawar, and see
who’s talking to whom. The Obama administration, following the
Pentagon’s most ardent wishes, is praying to reach a security
deal with Karzai – which would imply US “forces” on the
ground. No wonder Taliban supremo Mullah Omar has already said
this is a no-no.

Plan B is some sub-deal reached as part of the ongoing
Washington-Tehran honeymoon, assuming it lasts; that would imply
a strong Iranian presence in post-NATO Afghanistan, and once
again no political space for the Taliban.

Islamabad, for its part, wants to talk to the Pakistani Taliban –
but they aren’t talking. At the same time, Islamabad is terrified
that India will have even more influence in post-NATO
Afghanistan.

In this vein, Islamabad would not be exactly unhappy if the
Taliban – their former 1990s clients – completely monopolized
power in post-NATO Afghanistan. The key problem remains the
Pakistani Taliban. If the talking in Afghanistan is messy, in
Pakistan it’s non-existent. The only victory option for Islamabad
would be to convince Obama to end the drone war; and have the
Pakistani Army smash the Pakistani Taliban by itself, or give
them whatever they want in the Waziristans. It’s not bound to
happen.

And here’s where Washington’s true agenda is revealed. Whatever
happens, Islamabad will be deemed incapable of helping to
“stabilize” Afghanistan, and even itself. So what’s a
benign superpower to do? It must, selflessly, remain
“involved” in Af-Pak – like, forever.

In a nutshell; Mr. Sharif goes to Washington to talk about no
drones, less aid and more trade – as in an open door especially
for Pakistani textiles (it’s not gonna happen). Obama only wants
to talk about terrorism and a vague “stability” following
the 2014 US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Compare it with Sharif’s summer visit to Beijing. Pakistan’s
economy is an absolute disaster. It badly needs to solve its
power and energy shortages before even dreaming of any economic
progress. Sharif goes to Beijing and gets Chinese economic
commitments in every field from energy to infrastructure. He even
boasts, “the economic corridor taking off from Kashgar [in
Xinjiang] to Gwadar [in the Indian Ocean] is a game changer…This
is the time for both countries to move forward to a faster
speed.”

As far as Sharif’s US trip is concerned, that’s more like parking
lot speed. Americans are shooting guns at drones.

Even if the Kalashnikov-happy Pakistani Taliban adopted the
practice, that would be far from ending Sharif’s problems.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.