Obama is not the bear. He is the cub: aimless, naïve, self-interested, self-indulgent, irresponsible, irresolute. The bear is in Moscow.

One can trace a line from any global hotspot to Russia and its authoritarian ruler. Iran? Russia has assisted its nuclear program for decades. Syria? Russia is Bashar Assad’s arms dealer. Iraq? Russia is sending men and materiel to the central government. Afghanistan? Putin muscled nearby Kyrgyzstan into closing our air base there, crucial for transport, resupply, and reconnaissance in the war against the Taliban. The contretemps between the United States and Germany is the result of Edward Snowden’s breach of national security. Where is Snowden? In Russia, where he has just asked to have his visa renewed. I wonder if Vladimir Putin will say yes…

Thursday brought us only the latest unintended consequence of Russia’s war on Ukrainian independence: the destruction of a Malaysian airlines flight carrying 295 souls. The attack is revolting, the loss of life infuriating, but the downing of Flight MH17 is not the first unanticipated outcome of the war Vladimir Putin began in Ukraine. Nor will it be the last.

What if the bear, like the cub, has lost control of events? Giving Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine high-tech missiles to take down Kiev’s military planes makes sense for Putin. Standing by while they shoot down passenger jets doesn’t. He took Crimea because he knew that NATO’s European members wouldn’t care; they weren’t going to sacrifice Russian energy and Russian investment by imposing harsh sanctions just because he wanted Sevastopol back. Now they care. The emerging theory of what happened yesterday, that Putin’s Ukrainian proxies fired at the plane thinking it was a Ukrainian military jet, makes the most sense. What’s the bear going to do about it now, though? If he wanted to bring them to heel, could he even do it? Would the Russian public, after gorging on months of Kremlin propaganda about gay U.S.-backed Nazis seizing Kiev and threatening Moscow, allow it? Quote:

“How can Putin really manage this?” Pavlovsky went on. “You’d need to be an amazing conductor. Stalin was an amazing conductor in this way. Putin can’t quite pull off this trick. The audience is warmed up and ready to go; it is wound up and waiting for more and more conflict. You can’t just say, ‘Calm down.’ It’s a dangerous moment. Today, forty per cent of Russia wants real war with Ukraine. Putin himself doesn’t want war with Ukraine. But people are responding to this media machine. Putin needs to lower the temperature.”…

If it turns out that men like Strelkov and his fellow soldier-fantasists were responsible for the destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and all the people on board, the fever in Russia and Ukraine may intensify beyond anything that Vladimir Putin could have predicted or desired.

Maybe Putin’s not the bear. Maybe he’s just riding it and now he’s at risk of falling off. What happens then?

Update: He’s running late, as he always is for White House statements, so turn on cable news at noon ET instead.

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You kidding? We found out that he really laid down the law to Putin about Ukraine. And we found out that Obama cares more about a bunch of foreign AIDs researchers than he does about Americans. It’s a tragedy now when it wasn’t yesterday.

Fred Thompson just got it right. Barry is caught and doesn’t know what to do. He doesn’t want to hang this around Vlad’s neck because then he’ll have to do something about it, and the whole world knows it belongs around Vlad’s neck.

Now if Putin really wants to go in for the kill here he will declare all of Eastern Ukraine a No-Fly Zone in order to “protect innocent civilian life” after the shootdown. This will deprive Ukraine of its airpower advantage, shifting the advantage to the rebels.

Obama will send a strongly-worded note, cancel some Russian visas, draw a red line, shun Putin at soirees, boycott gas, have Jen Psaki go all hashtag on their ass, etc. Putin will have the Donbass incorporated into Russia.

Full transcript of President Obama’s statement on Ukraine, Malaysia Airlines plane crash, Gaza – @washingtonpost
Read more on washingtonpost.com
==================================

Running transcript: President Obama’s statement on Ukraine and Gaza

July 18 at 12:14 PM
********************

President Obama delivered the following remarks on the downed Malaysia Airlines jet in eastern Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Palestinians at the White House on Friday. Transcript courtesy of Federal News Service.

PRESIDENT OBAMA: Yesterday Malaysian Airlines Flight MH 17 took off from Amsterdam and was shot down over Ukraine near the Russian border. Nearly 300 innocent lives were taken — men, women, children, infants who had nothing to do with the crisis in Ukraine. Their deaths are a outrage of unspeakable proportions.

We know at least one American citizen, Quinn Lucas Shantzman (ph), was killed. Our thoughts and prayers are with his family for this terrible loss.

Yesterday I spoke with the leaders of Ukraine, Malaysia and the Netherlands, and I told them that our thoughts and prayers are with all the families and that the American people stand with them during this difficult time. Later today I’ll be speaking with Prime Minister Abbott of Australia, which also suffered a terrible loss.

By far the country that lost the most people onboard the place was the Netherlands. From the days of our founding, the Dutch have been close friends and stalwart allies of the United States of America, and today I want the Dutch people to know that we stand with you shoulder to shoulder in our grief and in our absolute determination to get to the bottom of what happened.

Now, here is what we know so far. Evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by a surface-to-air missile that was launched from an area that is controlled by Russian-backed separatists inside of Ukraine.

We also know that this is not the first time a plane has been shot down in eastern Ukraine. Over the last several weeks Russian- backed separatists have shot down a Ukrainian transport plane and a Ukrainian helicopter, and they claimed responsibility for shooting down a Ukrainian fighter jet.

Moreover, we know that these separatists have received a steady flow of support from Russia.

This includes arms and training. It includes heavy weapons. And it includes anti-aircraft weapons.

Now, here’s what’s happened now. This was a global tragedy. And Asian airliner was destroyed in European skies, filled with citizens from many countries. So there has to be a credible international investigation into what happened. The U.N. Security Council has endorsed this investigation, and we will hold all its members, including Russia, to their word.

In order to facilitate that investigation, Russia, pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine must adhere to an immediate cease-fire. Evidence must not be tampered with. Investigators need to access the crash site. And the solemn task of returning those who were lost onboard the plane to their loved ones needs to go forward immediately.

Now, the United States stands ready to provide any assistance that is necessary. We’ve already offered the support of the FBI and the National Transportation Safety Board, which has experience in working with international partners on these types of investigations. They are on their way, personnel from the FBI and the National Transportation Safety Board. In the coming hours and days, I’ll continue to be in close contact with leaders from around the world as we respond to this catastrophe.

Our immediate focus will be on recovering those who were lost, investigating exactly what happened and putting forward the facts. And I want to point out there will likely be misinformation as well. I think it’s very important for folks to sift through what is factually based and what is simply speculation. No one can deny the truth that is revealed in the awful images that we all have seen, and the eyes of the world are on eastern Ukraine, and we are going to make sure that the truth is out.

More broadly, I think it’s important for us to recognize that this outrageous event underscores that it is time for peace and security to be restored in Ukraine. For months we’ve supported a pathway to peace, and the Ukrainian government has reached out to all Ukrainians, put forward a peace plan and lived up to a cease-fire, despite repeated violations by the separatists, violations that took the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and personnel.

Moreover, time and again, Russia has refused to take the concrete steps necessary to de-escalate the situation. I spoke to President Putin yesterday in the wake of additional sanctions that we had imposed. He said he wasn’t happy with them, and I told him that we have been very clear from the outset that we want Russia to take the path that would result in peace in Ukraine, but so far, at least, Russia has failed to take that path. Instead, it has continued to violate Ukrainian sovereignty and to support violent separatists. It has also failed to use its influence to press the separatists to abide by a cease-fire. That’s why, together with our allies, we’ve imposed growing costs on Russia.

So now’s, I think, a somber and appropriate time for all of us to step back and take a hard look at what has happened. Violence and conflict inevitably lead to unforeseen consequences. Russia, these separatists, and Ukraine all have the capacity to put an end to the fighting. Meanwhile, the United States is going to continue to lead efforts within the world community to de-escalate the situation, to stand up for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine and to support the people of Ukraine as they courageously work to strengthen their democracy and make their own decisions about how they should move forward.

Before I take just a couple of questions, let me remark on one other issue. This morning I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel about the situation in Gaza. We discussed Israel’s military operation in Gaza, including its efforts to stop the threat of terrorist infiltration through tunnels into Israel. I reaffirmed my strong support for Israel’s right to defend itself. No nation should accept rockets being fired into its borders or terrorists tunneling into its territory. In fact, while I was having the conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, sirens went off in Tel Aviv.

I also made clear that the United States and our friends and allies are deeply concerned about the risks of further escalation and the loss of more innocent life. And that’s why we’ve indicated although we support military efforts by the Israelis to make sure that rockets are not being fired into their territory, we also have said that our understanding is the current military ground operations are designed to deal with the tunnels.

Incidentally, “an immediate cease-fire” would be fine with the Russian-backed rebels. They still hold Donetsk and Lugansk and most of the region. The Ukrainian government forces are the ones on the offensive, trying to subdue them and reoccupy the area before any Russian intervention.

Even to the point of understanding the simplest reality of the battlefield, this president is clueless. He is virtually incapable of making a correct move in foreign affairs. He is a weak, pathetic fool, held in contempt by both friends and enemies. His mistakes will be paid for in American blood and treasure for many years to come–unless the Republicans get their heads out of their asses very soon.

So that’s who you’re dealing with: some mix of civil war reenactor or Tea Partier decked out in revolutionary garb, with a mix of reckless aggression and comical incompetence. Here we have them break into nursing homes to photographs senator’s comatose wives; there Putin gives them heavy armaments designed for full scale land war in Europe.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I see you’re still lifting stuff from loony leftist sites and passing it off as your own, Ned. The screed quoted above came from TPM, word for word.

So that’s who you’re dealing with: some mix of civil war reenactor or Tea Partier decked out in revolutionary garb, with a mix of reckless aggression and comical incompetence. Here we have them break into nursing homes to photographs senator’s comatose wives; there Putin gives them heavy armaments designed for full scale land war in Europe.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I see you’re still lifting stuff from loony leftist sites and passing it off as your own, Ned. The screed quoted above came from TPM, word for word.

Back to Ned Pepper,,,, You say the nation has moved on in this direction that it will never elect a conservative again. Do you stand by your statement when Obbama continues to ignore, shred and usurp more power. Is the electorate ignorant enough to follow leftists forever at the expense of our liberties and freedom? I believe that the electorate is foolish enough to keep electing leftists dictators knowing that they will get their free stuff. Doesn’t it bother you Ned that we were once a great nation but now its drifting into debt, powerless and not free anymore?

Did we at least get a hashtag issued so we can go about our daily vapid lives?

oceansidecon on July 18, 2014 at 12:40 PM

That’s worth a chuckle.

It looks like they found a speech writer sleeping under his desk and came up with something for Obungle to say. I wasn’t able to listen to the speech word for word but I got the impression he was just droning on saying things he was supposed to.

So that’s who you’re dealing with: some mix of civil war reenactor or Tea Partier decked out in revolutionary garb, with a mix of reckless aggression and comical incompetence. Here we have them break into nursing homes to photographs senator’s comatose wives; there Putin gives them heavy armaments designed for full scale land war in Europe.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I see you’re still lifting stuff from loony leftist sites and passing it off as your own, Ned. The screed quoted above came from TPM, word for word.

Speaks volumes about Ned’s lack of brain cells, doesn’t it? I caught him 2 weeks ago doing the very same thing; that time he cut and pasted something and posted it here as his own only an hour after it had first appeared.

So that’s who you’re dealing with: some mix of civil war reenactor or Tea Partier decked out in revolutionary garb, with a mix of reckless aggression and comical incompetence. Here we have them break into nursing homes to photographs senator’s comatose wives; there Putin gives them heavy armaments designed for full scale land war in Europe.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I see you’re still lifting stuff from loony leftist sites and passing it off as your own, Ned. The screed quoted above came from TPM, word for word.

Speaks volumes about Ned’s lack of brain cells, doesn’t it? I caught him 2 weeks ago doing the very same thing; that time he cut and pasted something and posted it here as his own only an hour after it had first appeared.

So that’s who you’re dealing with: some mix of civil war reenactor or Tea Partier decked out in revolutionary garb, with a mix of reckless aggression and comical incompetence. Here we have them break into nursing homes to photographs senator’s comatose wives; there Putin gives them heavy armaments designed for full scale land war in Europe.

Ned Pepper on July 18, 2014 at 11:10 AM

I see you’re still lifting stuff from loony leftist sites and passing it off as your own, Ned. The screed quoted above came from TPM, word for word.

Dr Sutyagin said: ‘There is a Ukrainian mechanised brigade blocked by separatists near the Russian border.
‘It’s blocked on three sides by separatists and behind the brigade is the Russian border, so they can’t get out. The Ukrainians try to resupply them from the air by transport aircraft.

‘Now, the pilot of MH17 said that he “felt bad” and wanted to change course south to get out of the danger zone. But several kilometers to the south is a Ukrainian Army heavy transport plane, an IL76, or Candid, which has the same echo as a 777 on a radar screen.

‘The two planes came close. They tried to shoot down the transport delivering supplies to the brigade. They believed that they had been firing at a military plane, but they mistakenly shoot down a civilian airliner.’

Putin arming separatists is not the same as Putin shooting down a plane

Putin had more national interest in the separatist movement than we did in the head choppers

Separatists had already shot down two planes the same week. Since the opposition was getting resupplied by plane, all planes were targets there.

Still does not make sense to me why pilot diverted. Ties into Malaysian conspiracy theories. Would be sad karma if pilot intended to disappear plane like the last missing Malaysian plane, by using war zone excuse to alter flight plan, but diverted it right into cross hairs of separatists looking to stop all enemy cargo flights