With three dissenters and no good reason (based on their own data) to stay on hold in September, The Fed chickened out… but jawboned the hawkish tilt afterwards. With Nov odds at 19% and Dec at 66%, the USD and Treasury yields were falling dovishly into the Minutes.

*FED: SEVERAL OFFICIALS SAID DECISION TO WAIT WAS ‘CLOSE CALL’

*FED SAYS SEVERAL FOMC MEMBERS SAW RATE RISE ‘RELATIVELY SOON’

*FED: IT WAS NOTED ‘REASONABLE ARGUMENT’ COULD BE MADE TO HIKE

“Several participants expressed concern that continuing to delay an increase in the target range implied a further divergence from policy benchmarks based on the committee’s past behavior or risked eroding its credibility” especially because recent data supported the committee’s outlook, the minutes stated.