Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Here is the FINAL 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings
covering action through the National Championship Game (NON-ADJ RANK = pure
statistical rating prior to SOS adjustment; SUM is rating for team & can be
compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry or vs.
last year on a weekly basis – check toolbar to right, click 2014 &
reference February & March; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted
performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index
Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings):

NON-ADJ

ADJ RATINGS

TOP 50

Team

RANK

SUM

RANK

KP

BPI

RPI

SAG

Duke

7

425.8

1

4

6

5

2

Wisconsin

8

416.6

2

3

2

2

3

Kentucky

4

415.1

3

1

1

1

1

Arizona

1

412.3

4

2

3

6

4

Villanova

2

408.4

5

6

5

4

6

Louisville

9

392.7

6

16

15

21

12

West Virginia

15

384.6

7

26

23

24

23

Butler

12

381.0

8

20

20

31

19

Baylor

19

379.6

9

17

19

10

18

Utah

15

372.8

10

8

10

20

9

VCU

12

363.9

11

28

25

14

30

Virginia

29

358.4

12

5

4

7

5

Kansas

92

354.8

13

14

8

2

13

Wichita State

5

352.1

14

10

12

17

14

Providence

57

350.7

15

30

33

23

29

Iowa

32

350.0

16

19

36

43

21

Ohio State

18

348.3

17

21

17

39

17

Michigan State

62

348.0

18

15

18

22

11

North Carolina

115

347.7

19

11

11

11

10

Xavier

69

343.0

20

22

26

30

22

Oklahoma

66

342.4

21

13

13

18

16

Florida

81

338.9

22

45

35

47

Georgetown

77

336.6

23

24

22

25

25

Iowa State

64

334.9

24

18

16

9

15

North Carolina State

77

334.5

25

31

34

40

26

Arkansas

35

328.9

26

29

21

19

28

Gonzaga

11

328.0

27

7

7

8

7

Texas

77

326.0

28

25

27

42

24

Syracuse

61

323.1

29

48

Stanford

57

321.6

30

41

37

31

Illinois

47

321.4

31

UCLA

89

319.9

32

33

43

49

39

Oklahoma State

112

318.8

33

47

50

46

43

Georgia Tech

99

314.5

34

South Carolina

97

310.2

35

Notre Dame

73

305.6

36

9

9

16

8

Minnesota

69

304.7

37

Miami (FL)

92

304.1

38

46

41

35

Arizona State

81

301.6

39

Purdue

89

301.4

40

48

39

34

Brigham Young

33

299.1

41

35

31

38

41

Ole Miss

99

299.0

42

50

40

San Diego State

35

297.9

43

27

48

27

33

Illinois State

43

297.8

44

Dayton

31

297.0

45

37

29

32

42

Indiana

81

296.2

46

47

38

Georgia

146

294.8

47

39

30

37

40

Seton Hall

132

291.9

48

Pittsburgh

129

288.5

49

Southern Methodist

35

287.4

50

23

24

13

32

Here are the teams from the above matrix that rank inside
the Top 100 over the last 13 seasons (as far back as my model has been tested):

Duke 425.8: 13th

Wisconsin 416.6: 19th

Kentucky 415.1: 21st

Arizona 412.3: 23rd

Villanova 408.4: 29th

Louisville 392.7: 46th

West Virginia 384.6: 64th

Butler 381.0: 76th

Baylor 379.6: 77th

Utah 372.8: 93rd

So by dividing 100 by 13 you would expect approximately 7-8
teams to be ranked inside the Top 100 for each year; however this year we had
10 AND perhaps a bigger sign this was a solid year for the best teams there
were 5 teams that now rank inside the Top 29 teams of the last 13 seasons.But with Duke checking in at #13 it does
suggest there was no great team this year, but a few that were in the mix to
win the national title – see the top 4 especially.

One more interesting tidbit on the above Top 50 ratings is
just 6 of the Top 28 teams returned fewer than 3 starters this season (Baylor
1, Kansas 2, Ohio State 2, Michigan State 2, Xavier 2, and Florida 1).In addition quite a few teams look very “out
of place” with such a high rating; those would be teams I am extremely bullish
on going into next season as many of them had injuries this season and return a
bulk of their starters for next year.

Next up let’s take a look where each of the current Top 25 in
SBPI ranked in the past:

Team

18-Jan

25-Jan

1-Feb

8-Feb

15-Feb

22-Feb

1-Mar

8-Mar

15-Mar

FINAL

Duke

5

5

1

1

2

2

3

3

3

1

Wisconsin

16

9

9

9

9

8

9

7

6

2

Kentucky

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

3

Arizona

11

7

6

4

7

5

4

4

4

4

Villanova

3

4

3

3

3

4

2

2

2

5

Louisville

12

12

8

6

8

9

10

9

8

6

West Virginia

15

15

18

13

10

10

6

6

7

7

Butler

4

3

4

7

6

3

7

8

9

8

Baylor

9

6

7

8

4

6

5

5

5

9

Utah

14

11

12

12

13

11

12

12

12

10

VCU

6

8

10

11

15

16

11

11

10

11

Virginia

10

14

13

10

14

15

24

15

16

12

Kansas

2

2

5

5

5

7

8

10

11

13

Wichita State

7

10

11

15

19

24

20

26

28

14

Providence

20

20

21

18

18

14

19

16

13

15

Iowa

28

29

27

25

28

26

22

18

21

16

Ohio State

27

35

32

27

26

27

21

19

19

17

Michigan State

25

27

28

37

32

29

32

24

22

18

North Carolina

17

18

16

17

20

18

13

17

17

19

Xavier

18

19

14

20

17

20

18

21

18

20

Oklahoma

26

22

17

22

25

21

17

13

15

21

Florida

19

16

15

14

11

12

14

20

20

22

Georgetown

36

25

23

19

16

17

15

22

23

23

Iowa State

31

34

33

29

27

22

16

14

14

24

North Carolina State

23

26

36

38

30

33

27

28

27

25

Duke was the only team during the regular season to own the
top spot for even just one week (they did for two weeks) – and if you followed
my twitter feed during the season I tweeted multiple times during the year,
even back to early December, that my eye test believed Duke to be the team to
beat.

I will have a follow-up blog entry on the trends in the
above table, testing numerous statistical angles including correlation.

Strength of conference:

RANK

CONFERENCE

AVG RATING

1

B12

324.3

2

BE

310.3

3

ACC

306.0

4

B10

298.0

5

SEC

285.9

6

P12

283.1

7

A10

241.3

8

WCC

237.3

9

MVC

234.6

10

AAC

213.3

11

HORIZON

213.2

12

MAC

211.9

13

MWC

207.2

14

BIG WEST

202.1

15

IVY

199.4

16

CUSA

184.8

17

OVC

179.7

18

SUMMIT

175.6

19

SUN BELT

174.7

20

CAA

174.2

21

MAAC

168.7

22

INDEPENDENT

168.2

23

BIG SOUTH

168.0

24

PATRIOT

163.6

25

SOCON

161.1

26

BIG SKY

155.3

27

AMER EAST

147.7

28

NEC

147.0

29

SOUTHLAND

144.2

30

WAC

136.6

31

ASUN

130.9

32

MEAC

123.4

33

SWAC

100.0

We can really see how the Power 6 conferences are ranked
well above the rest of the pack here.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.