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unintended consequences ’

On Monday April 30, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (15:27)

Louis and Ryan discuss Ben Bernanke’s recent comments relating to keeping interest rates low for an extended period of time. Ryan notes that interest rates are kept low out of necessity to keep the US interest payment obligations from being too expensive. Louis adds that low interest rates also help keep the banks solvent. Louis notes that the policy statements don’t refer to these two points but rather state that low interest rates are in place to help the economy and consumers.

Louis notes that low interest rates are not good for consumers as they create an environment that does not encourage savings, so people are almost forced to put their savings into the stock market. Low interest rates also encourage consumers to take on more debt which is good for banks and not necessarily good for consumers. Ryan notes that loans are not available to small businesses that want to take advantage of the low interest rates.

Louis notes that the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low is market manipulation as interest rates are not driven by the market. Louis notes that if one can take advantage of these artificially low interest rate and lock in a long term mortgage you can hedge your future shelter costs against future increases. Louis notes that food and energy are stripped out of the official inflation rate.

Louis notes that the only reason the Federal Government can continue to run up deficits is because the Federal Reserve purchases the debt and that the Federal Reserve purchases 61% of all US Treasury issuance. Louis notes the Fed buys the debt with money that they print out of thin air which devalues the dollar.

Louis notes that Paul Krugman believes that the government should be borrowing more money, and the Fed should be printing more money to pay for the borrowing to help the economy, rather than encouraging savings and production. Louis notes that if printing money was the solution to economic woes, all countries would just print more and all economic problems would be solved.

Louis notes that wealth is not created from the production and spending of money but rather from the savings and investing of money and production. Ryan notes Ron Paul’s views on monetary policy. Louis notes that gold and silver hold their value. Louis notes that Congress ceded their authority on money to the Federal Reserve, a private bank and also notes Congress has also ceded to the President certain war powers.

Louis notes that Ron Paul’s position is not to run the economy or regulate people’s lives but rather to let people and the economy sort themselves out. Louis notes that most politicians make promises to get elected and that its difficult to get elected without a scheme.

On Monday April 9, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WNEW AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:46)

Ryan and Louis discuss the jobs report. Ryan notes that the unemployment rate actually dipped even though more people are unemployed as the participation rate in the labor force has dropped. Louis notes that once a worker is classified as no longer in the labor force, they are no longer considered “unemployed”.

Louis notes the disconnect between companies doing well and consumers doing well. Louis notes that the stock market is up in part because companies with a lot of cash are purchasing their own stock. Louis also notes that companies are in a different position than consumers as many companies are not in debt and have huge cash balances while many consumers have little cash and large debt balances.

Louis notes that Apple’s over performance makes the overall market appear to be doing better than it is. Louis notes that perhaps Apple is overvalued. Ryan notes that many companies have their cash overseas. Louis notes that companies also hold US treasuries and that when they decide to free up their cash, they will have to sell their US Treasuries which will put downward pressure on those securities. Louis notes that 61% of US Treasuries last year were bought by the Federal Reserve.

Louis notes that the US government engages in deficit spending and relies upon the Federal Reserve to print money to purchase the US Treasuries to fund the spending. Louis notes that up to 20-30 years ago most of the US Treasuries were bought domestically by US companies and individuals.

More recently China and Japan bought large percentages of US Treasury issuances, however in the past two or three years they have cut their purchases of US Treasuries. Louis notes that the US government has increased spending each year which means it relies more heavily on debt issuances to fund its spending-debt issuances that are increasingly purchased by the Federal Reserve Bank. Louis notes that if the Federal Reserve was not buying the debt, interest rates would be much higher.

Ryan notes that the Federal Reserve can’t continue to be the purchaser of last resort forever. Louis notes that the Atlantic is calling Ben Bernanke a hero and that Paul Krugman is arguing that inflation is too low! Louis notes that Krugman thinks that because money is cheap that we should be spending more of it. Louis argues that is akin to telling someone the morning after who is hungover to have more beers because they are cheaper in the morning than they were last night. Louis notes that the less money you make the greater percentage food and energy are as part of your budget.

On Monday March 19, 2012, Louis Cammarosano, General Manager of HomeGain, was a guest on the Real Estate 360 Live radio show on The Big Talker 1580 WHFS AM, hosted by Ryan Sloper.

Listen to the show.

Part 1 (14:56)

Louis notes that interest rates are artificially manipulated as are the unemployment and inflation rates and that the economy is not good. Louis notes that there is still a lot of debt in the system and until that debt gets flushed out of the system there won’t be much of a recovery. Louis notes that the interest rates are low not for the benefit of the consumers who want to borrow but for the benefit of the banks and the Federal government who need interest rates to remain low.

Louis notes that low interest rates force savers and investor to put money into the stock market and other risk assets as bank deposits pay less than even the official stated rate of inflation. Louis notes that the gold silver and real estate markets are not as liquid. Louis says there is a bubble in the bond market but NOT in gold and silver as gold and silver are not overbought. Louis notes that the average person probably could not name a few gold or silver mining stocks.

Louis also notes that the average person also does’nt have much money to invest. Louis discusses unintended consequences. Louis predicts that central banks will continue to print money-i.e. kicking the can down the road, which eventually is a dead end. Louis notes you can’t solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. Louis notes that central planning and officious intermeddling in the market does not work.

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