Friday, January 31, 2014

2014 NBA All-Star breakdown: Who got snubbed?

All-Star selections came in last night, spoiled by the likes of Adrian Wojnarowski, Marc Spears, and Marc Stein in advance of TNT's pre-game show. Twitter was raging about all the various snubs, and I'm here to see how valid they all are.

Players are sorted by Win Shares, a metric which effectively weights statistical production with team record - the two points we by and large use to define "All-Stars".

Unless otherwise noted, all players played a minimum of 1000 minutes prior to 1/30/14.

I'm not as high on Stephenson as some are (the entire TNT panel picked Stephenson to make it), but he's a clear snub compared to Johnson.

Coaches likely decided only one Raptor should make the All-Star team, and they gave DeRozan the nod. While DeRozan is averaging 22 points and trails only Dwyane Wade and James Harden in PER at the SG position, his spot still should have gone to Lowry.

Ultimately, NONE of these guys should be in the All-Star conversation, which is a testament to how weak the Eastern Conference is. There are FOUR snubbed guards out west who deserve to be All-Stars but simply play in the wrong conference.

Even with his poor FT shooting, Drummond blows Hibbert away in scoring efficiency, as he is the vastly better finisher around the rim thanks to his athleticism. He grades extremely well in Pick and Rolls, Cuts, Offensive Rebounds, and Transition opportunities.

There is simply no arguing who the better rebounder is, as Drummond leads the league in both ORB% and Total Rebound percentage. The Pacers lead the league in DRB% in large part because Lance Stephenson is grabbing as many defensive boards as Hibbert.

Hibbert may be the stronger defensive player (the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year), but Drummond is no slouch himself, and he would turn the Pacers into a deadly offensive team (they are only 19th, partly due to Hibbert's inefficiencies).

I waffled a bit between Lance Stephenson and Roy Hibbert for the final spot. Earlier in the week/day/hour I was not in favor of him making the team, but have since decided that Lance's rebounding has just been too vital to the Pacers' success. He has also been the Pacers' top playmaker, one of the few SG in the league that averages more assists than his starting PG (Wade and Harden are the other two).

The gap between Drummond and Hibbert's numbers were simply too hard for me to ignore, and it's easier to leave Hibbert off the team if Lance is going in his place. I understand I'm going against the grain and am okay with people calling me crazy or wrong, but I absolutely feel the Pacers would still be atop the east and that the Pistons would be even worse if Drummond and Hibbert switched places.

Even though Stephenson and Drummond both missed the All-Star team this year, I fully expect both to make it next year barring a sudden influx of talent to the eastern conference.

There are EIGHT point guards who would be All-Stars in the east - and that's not including the injured Westbrook or Bledsoe. If you're wondering why there's such a vast record discrepancy between the two conferences, you can start here.

Goran Dragic was absolutely snubbed, as the coaches gave Tony Parker a lifetime achievement and obligatory Spurs selection (If Parker and Lillard were rewarded for being on winning teams, I'm still trying to figure out what Kyle Lowry and Lance Stephenson did wrong.)

The Suns were widely expected to the worst team in the west, yet Dragic has carried them to a 28-18 record. That's a better record than the beloved Warriors who have FOUR all-stars in their starting lineup, mind you. Dragic has the 3rd best production of any guard in the conference. The numbers are there AND the team is a winner; you'd think that would matter to the coaches but between Dragic and Lowry/Lance, it's clear that's all lip service.

Conley, Thomas, and Lawson were all right there in the conversation along with Lillard, and were just as deserving as Tony Parker who has regressed this season. Parker was more or less the "safe" pick rather than the right one (FWIW I would have at least been in favor of Tim Duncan making the trip instead of Parker). The Spurs are still a great team but that speaks more to their impressive depth and the impeccable coaching of Gregg Popovich than it does the individual talent/ability of their star players.

It goes without saying that Kobe's selection by the fans is one of the worst voting gaffes of all-time. Fortunately, Kobe is unlikely to be medically cleared, allowing for someone deserving to make the trip.

Wesley Matthews had every bit as good a season as Lance Stephenson or DeMar DeRozan but had absolutely no All-Star hype. Welcome to the Western Conference.

Last year Anthony Davis got snubbed by Damian Lillard for Rookie of the Year (would have earned it had it not been for his early injury), and now the same has happened this year for the All-Star game. Fortunately, Davis is by and large the leading candidate to replace Kobe Bryant as an injury reserve, especially since the game is being played in New Orleans.

Love, Griffin, Dirk, and Aldridge are superstars, and there's no sense crying about any making it over Davis. David Lee and Serge Ibaka would have been All-Stars in the east, but the west is just crazy deep.

Dwight Howard over Tim Duncan was ultimately the right call, even though one could argue Duncan is still the best center in the NBA. Duncan simply doesn't play enough regular season minutes, as Popovich (rightly) deems the playoffs more important than whether his stars qualify for a meaningless exhibition.

Cousins would be clearly be an All-Star in the eastern conference, but there are just so many high level players on winning teams to reward that you can't really justify him making it. As with Drummond out east, he's the future of his respective conference.

Nikola Pekovic would likewise be an All-Star out east, and is held back by the sheer depth of the conference. The Timberwolves are a game over .500 yet they are only 10th in the west (and a half-game out of 11th).

DeAndre Jordan might be the most underrated player in the NBA right now. Along with Blake Griffin (who gets little respect from fans and experts around the league) the front court duo have been rock steady and are the reason the Clippers haven't missed a beat despite injuries to Chris Paul and J.J. Redick.