Speaking of Coal. The
publishing of these 2 particular photos is a remarkable coincidence. I
had picked them out yesterday to be among the series of stuff to finally
publish. So, the news this morning hit me really funny. I just
happened to have proof to show that I've seen the non-renewable part of the
equation firsthand. We were in Wyoming visiting family. Out for
the evening to get some dinner, we took a quick sight-seeing drive along the
way. Being in the heart of coal country, it was easy to encounter
mind-boggling scenes of earth moving. I find it amazing to be cruising
along at 80 mph in the Prius through large areas of prairie, then suddenly
see massive deep excavation pits appear on both sides of the highway.
The well-being of that area depends upon coal... an industry now feeling the
pain of environmental pressure. Ironically, those wide open praries
are idea for wind-turbines... a technology only now they are beginning to
consider. Anywho, you have to stop to look. So, we did.
The monumental scale of those operations is quite impressive. I sure
hope they are able to turn their resources toward renewable efforts.
It would be great to see an area like that transformed to being a large
supplier of clean electricity and equipment manufacturing for renewable
energy technologies. Take a look for yourself at what we saw...
photo album 187

10-25-2016

Renewables vs. Coal. You ever thing about how long it
would be until the overall energy output from renewable sources exceeds that
from coal? I hadn't. So, the announcement today on the radio
about that point having already been reached was a delight to hear. I
wasn't expecting that yet. Achieving that makes sense. Solar &
Wind continue to produce electricity. Coal can only release energy as
electricity once. That's a major fundamental difference. The
growth of cells & turbines has been strong lately too. It's a market
with lots of potential. The challenges of starting up have been
overcome. We now see the benefits of that emerging. Heck, I tend
to forget the ramp where I plug in has a massive solar array. Some of
the electricity I use to recharge comes directly from that. On sunny
days, there's likely quite a bit to spare with an 80 kWh potential and
currently only 2 of us routinely using the 6 chargers available.
Someday there will be more of us. In the meantime, use of coal will
shrink. Yes, I know, some of that is being supplemented with natural
gas. Fortunately, renewable is being considered more as a realistic
alternative. Time will make it much easier to invest in too. The
chargers at the new grocery store near me have both the cylinder type
generators and solar to help draw attention to the electricity use. It
take very little wind to make those things spin too. It would be
difficult not to notice them. Anywho, we are on the right path.
This is undeniable progress. Yeah!

10-24-2016

Nissan Hybrid. The refinement from 4 generations of
improving design isn't obvious... until competition emerges. Toyota's
smooth & seamless operation has been taken for granted. In fact, it is
so uneventful, some spin that as boring & gutless. There's not a whole
lot to counter such an argument point either... until now. The
test-drive of Nissan's upcoming hybrid revealed roughness people had never
appreciated not having. Basically, the system is a regular vehicle
with an electric motor squeezed in. The shifting between without a
power-split device becomes obvious. It wouldn't be so bad with just a
mode switch, but that sacrifices efficiency. Taking advantage of both
power sources presents challenges... ones that Toyota dealt with ages ago.
Without a plug having been available, they had no choice but to dedicate
engineering effort to refine. That's rather obvious with Prius PHV,
which really only needed a bigger battery. The platform already had
that type of operation in mind. A harmony of engine & motor was well
established. Prime being able to take advantage of more electricity is
a bonus. Even without a plug, the efficiency is truly remarkable.
Notice how high the MPG is from some new Prius owners? You don't get
that with an add-on to a traditional system. Oh well. Gas is
still cheap and focus is on plugging in anyway. Nissan will figure out
how to offer a choice for buyers. In this case, they are attempting to
deliver a small SUV. Think about what will happen when Mitsubishi does
next Summer. That will be a plug-in hybrid. Attention will turn
to Toyota to do the same with RAV4, especially if Prime sales are drawing
lots of attention.

10-23-2016

Greenwash Traps. There is much speculation taking
place now. Not having Prime in the hands of any owners yet is
contributing heavily to assumptions. I'll sure be glad when that
changes. In the meantime, this list was rewarding to compile & share:

It has been interesting to watch so many take the greenwashing bait. Having
participated in the acceleration arguments for the Classic model Prius 15
years ago, I'm quite familiar with the traps you can fall into.

First is to trick you into believing a specific value is required, an
essential you cannot survive without. In this case, the 10-second 0 to 60
speed is portrayed as necessary.

Second is to avoid any detail which could reveal that value stated is a
misrepresentation of what actually happens in real-world driving. In this
case, maximum acceleration is so rare, you'll be well aware of when you
actually need it.

Third is to prevent the situation as if there are no other alternatives
available, that it is an absolute which cannot be fulfilled by any other
means. In this case, the "EV Auto" mode isn't an option.

Fourth is to misrepresent the alternative when it is eventually presented. In
this case, make sure people don't discover that the "EV Auto" mode
provides blending, like the EV-BOOST mode did with Prius PHV.

Long story short, the antagonists don't want you to discover the remarkable
MPG resulting from the use of the "EV Auto" mode. They want you to ignore
that button, hoping everyone believes the only way to achieve such
incredible efficiency must be through the use of only EV driving.

10-23-2016

How Much? Few bother to ask that question. Even
fewer actually take the time to measure. Requirements for acceleration
are simply assumed, based upon comparisons of other offerings. In
other words, an average is taken without consideration of the driving
conditions. It's just on-paper calculations. That type of
specification comparing is how vehicles have been sold for decades.
More is better, period. Effective marketing convinces us of that.
Though effective, it's quite a waste. Driving a Prius, you notice the
waste. The screen providing detail while you drive makes that easy.
That's why the guzzlers don't offer such a feature. Heck, that's why
Volt didn't at first too. Now, it does. Consumption of kWh
wasn't regarded as important initially. Now, it is. Yeah.
Sadly, that's type of mindset improvement doesn't work with acceleration.
You don't get stats on how long it really took to merge onto the highway.
You just mindlessly follow the vehicle in front & behind you, keeping a safe
distance. There is never any time summary provided. Imagine if
there was. People would notice the 0-60 time is almost never required.
The need to drop the pedal to the floor and leave it there the entire
duration is incredibly rare. Oh well. All you can do is share
experiences to point that out, like:
I merge onto the highway now with my Prius PHV expecting the engine to
start. No big deal, the EV-BOOST performance is nice and the remaining
electricity lasts longer. Sometimes, it doesn't start though.
Discovering I've used up most of my battery from cruising along at 55 mph in
EV can be annoying... but it does confirm not as much power is needed as
some try to lead is to believe.
And of course, with the bigger pack, there's more EV range available anyway.

10-22-2016

Pushing Lithium, part 2.
This was his provoke: "And how many plug-ins did Toyota sell this year?
.. yeah .. OK. Toyota = 52. VW group = 7,673." I
thoroughly enjoyed responding to it with:

The discussion was about
PRODUCTION of lithium batteries. That obvious attempt to mislead by
changing the topic was rather desperate. But since you did change it over to
SALES of vehicles, let's look at that...

VW sold 7,673 in the first 3
quarters of the year here. That is in no way high-volume. It is very
much a niche, meaning it is not in a business-sustaining profitable tech.
The goal is to replace traditional vehicles. That won't happen without
much higher commitment.

Substantially increasing lithium battery
production is a way of reducing cost. Doing that will enable lower
prices, allowing the tech to become competitive.

That's exactly what
Toyota is doing. They'll sell roughly 300,000 regular Prius this year
which use lithium batteries. That effort will contribute to the
attractive pricing for Prime. That plug-in model of Prius will benefit
directly from the non-plug model. It's a smart move. It's good
business. It's happening whether you choose to address it or not.

A similar approach is what made Prius profitable way back in 2002.
Toyota took the Prius they had been selling for 4 years and reused it as a
traditional vehicle. The body was simplified, the engine detuned, and
the hybrid system replaced with an inexpensive transmission. It become
the vehicle we knew as Echo. That sharing of components reduced
production cost for Prius, making it profitable.

GM could redefine
Volt as a competitive plug-in hybrid from the benefit of high-volume lithium
battery production for Bolt. Dropping the price significantly prior to
the tax-credit expiring is essential. The 16,326 sold in the first 3
quarters of the year here represents no growth. Sales were 16,348 in
2012 and 16,760 in 2013. Flat will not achieve that goal. Sales
did drop to 14,540 in 2012, if you're looking to cherry-pick for better
results. 2015 was obviously lower, due to the prior clearance of
inventory of gen-1 to make way for the limited rollout of gen-2.

Toyota struggled this year from the earthquake interrupting Prius gen-4
rollout. Inventory was a problem for the first 5 months. That
was unfortunate, but it didn't prevent the diversification effort of
spreading the tech. In this case, they were able to introduce RAV4 and
sell 32,989 of them in 9 months. That's another opportunity for lower
production cost of lithium batteries even more. A plug-in model is a
wise move. Mitsubishi's Outlander has been selling remarkably well over in
Europe, the purchase total is over 100,000 so far.

GM's choice to
offer Equinox as a diesel rather than a hybrid is a step in the wrong
direction, the very market VW is now abandoning in favor of electrification.
The settlement requiring a major investment into the infrastructure will
contribute to that success too.

So... what the heck was your point?

10-22-2016

Pushing Lithium, part 1. That antagonist is at it
again, attempting to stir trouble by attacking with new material. This
time, it was in response to comments about pushing lithium battery
production. He immediately lashed out by listing models from VW (which
includes Audi & Porsche). It was a pretty lame attempt to insult
Toyota. I took the bait and replied with: "Pushing means
high-volume production. VW clearly is not yet." He took my bait
by posting numbers. I figured he was that desperate. Posting
numbers from VW in contrast to Toyota was a clear act of hopelessness.
That detail reveals the true story. It also allows me to dive deeper
into the topic. Remember problems of the past? I'd patiently
wait for an invitation, then strike back with big picture information.
His obvious cherry-picking meant it was only a matter of time before his
effort to retaliate would be exposed. I've learned over the years,
that's the only way to overcome the barrier they build to prevent
constructive discussion. Holding onto lost pride feels redeeming to
them, but ultimately falls apart. The rollout of Bolt & Prime combined
with the reality of VW having to buyback 100% of the violating diesels along
with providing compensation for environmental & financial damages is
ushering a new market... one that gen-2 Volt doesn't address. No big
deal, I see GM simply adapting. They prefer to sell SUVs anyway.
Equinox is the clear solution. They shift focus over to it with their
plug-in hybrid tech instead. That's a humbling move against what this
antagonists has defended for years... hence his lashing out at me. I
find it all quite intriguing to witness. Some people have an extremely
difficult time dealing with change. This topic nicely points that out.

10-22-2016

Incorrect Information. A big problem we've had with
each new generation rollout of Prius is the poor research.
Publications will get someone to write up a story on the new Prius.
Many of those writers clearly don't actually test-drive the vehicle...
leading to countless assumption problems. That's why Toyota has been
doing so much with promotional events, providing firsthand opportunities to
drive one. That's also why Toyota didn't rollout beyond the initial
markets with Prius PHV. The determent to Prius Prime wasn't obvious
then, but the wisdom of that choice his becoming easy to see now. The
act of researching online isn't always well done. Some don't even
realize there was a previous generation. They just find information,
they write about it. A good example of that today was a slew of
correct detail for Prime followed by a quote of "11 miles" for the
electric-only range. Ugh. It's really unfortunate from an
otherwise really nice article. Sadly, people researching a purchase of
one will stumble across that information... thinking it is correct.
Far too often, we see the trouble caused by those same people taking what
they read at face value, never bothering to confirm it with another source.
It's how greenwashing is unintentionally spread. They don't know what
they pass along is wrong. Antagonists wanting to undermine take
advantage of that. In those articles, they'll post misleading comments
to support the greenwash. In forums, their posts will refer to the
incorrect information. Grrr.

10-21-2016

Wanting More. This is as far from news as you can
get: "Americans don't like to be
limited. We want/need 2-3x what is really required." We've
known about the "more" problem since the day Prius rolled out. The
problem is the same. No change. Want still gets mixed up with
need. Ugh. I addressed that comment with this perspective:

How
many times was the "Who?" question asked? Know your audience.

You are
absolutely correct about the perception of being limited. Automakers have
taken advantage of that for decades, marketing based on emotional appeal
rather than logical choice.

Look at how absurd SUV sales took off. The
large & powerful draw hoards of buyers. That market became saturated
though and fell apart. People don't buy them anymore. In fact, looking out
onto the parking lot now, I don't see any. They are all small now. Purchases
have shifted to more of a balance of want & need, rather than catering
exclusively to want.

That is the difference between niche &
mainstream. Want is limited in some manner. Need will ultimately win the
quest for profitable high-volume sales. The priorities of the masses don't
allow them to seek out the most desirable choice.

In other words,
we'll end up seeing battery-capacity adjustments. The automaker with the
best research may get ridiculed initially, but they will be the ones reaping
the benefits of a business-sustaining solution rather than flaunting
trophies for best engineering. It's a tradeoff. Need is more important than
want.

We truly don't know what the winning configurations will be. A
majority of buyers will get drawn to something. Notice how 4-cylinder
engines emerged that way for middle-market? 6-cylinder engines are available
still, but far fewer are produced & sold. Battery-Capacity could easily see
similar demand.

The limited choices initially and lack of both
commercial & home infrastructure contributes to much uncertainty. What is
certain though is time. The tax-credits will be used up. When that happens
to an automaker, the resulting competitive response will put a lot of
pressure on the other automakers. Waiting is not an option. The clock is
ticking for all.