The awkward neighbour

So can David Cameron achieve the changes to the European Union that he wants? Judging by the initial responses from politicians and officials around the EU to yesterday’s speech, the answer is a resounding ‘No’.

In calling for fundamental changes to the way that the EU works, Cameron has suddenly become the most outspoken advocate for changing the EU’s treaties. Others, most notably Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, had already raised the possibility as a way of deepening eurozone integration, but it is by no means certain to happen. Cameron’s support has arguably made it even less likely. Cameron might have to come up with more convincing reasons as to why it should than his own domestic difficulties.

His demands will undoubtedly play well with swathes of the British electorate, but to get his way he needs allies in Europe, and that is by no means a given. All the other 26 member states – 27 counting Croatia, which joins the EU later this year – would have to agree to change the EU treaties or even to the lower-level repatriation of powers that the UK seeks.

There is no certainty that Cameron can count on support from any of them, let alone all. Mark Rutte, the prime minister of the Netherlands, is Cameron’s closest ally. His spokesman described the speech as “strong” and said there was support for “many of his reform proposals”. Merkel is sympathetic to Cameron’s opposition to some of the EU’s social legislation too.

But whether these two leaders would back fundamental change to the EU’s treaties is another matter.

Cameron is gambling on the belief that other national governments think that keeping the UK in the EU at almost any cost is worth the effort. Again, the British prime minister may well be deceiving himself. Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister, echoing a similar sentiment expressed by Cameron last year in response to France’s planned higher taxes, said yesterday: “If the UK decides to leave the EU, we will roll out the red carpet to businessmen.”

Guido Westerwelle, Germany’s foreign minister, was slightly more sanguine, saying that he wanted the UK “to remain an active and constructive part of the European Union”. But he added that “cherry-picking is not an option”.

Weakened position

Yesterday’s rhetoric counts for little. It will be in the behind-closed-doors negotiating rooms of the European Council where the future will be shaped. And Cameron starts from a weakened position having irritated his counterparts by vetoing changes to EU treaties at the European Council of December 2011 to introduce rules that later formed the intergovernmental fiscal compact.

Timetable

5-8 June 2014: European Parliament elections followed by creation of new European Commission

Autumn 2014: Referendum in Scotland on the country’s continued membership of the UK

Early 2015: Work could start on revision of EU treaties if member states agree

7 May 2015: General election in the UK (unless the government fails a vote of no-confidence before then)

End 2017: The time by which David Cameron says he will call a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU if he is re-elected in 2015

Cameron has set the bar high. In calling for the eradication of the desire for “ever closer union” in a future treaty, he challenges the EU’s sense of destiny. He is “raising false expectations that can never be met”, according to Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats group in the European Parliament. Many on different sides will agree with Verhofstadt.

The Commission may not like what Cameron is proposing, but it will at least listen. The UK is big enough and important enough for a request for treaty change to be taken seriously. “The speech was an important contribution to the democratic debate,” was the cautious response from a Commission spokeswoman yesterday. Behind the scenes the Commission will seek a big part in the discussions.

Predicting the future

If there is a referendum, it is unlikely to take place before the end of 2017. By then Cameron hopes to have succeeded in modelling the EU in his image.

At the moment, and certainly judging by yesterday’s reaction, his chances look slim. But a lot can happen in four years. Four years ago, before any of the eurozone’s sovereign-debt problems, it would have been unthinkable to have implemented some of the fiscal and banking union rules that are now a reality.

Many of the politicians that have given the responses today will not be in office in 2017. There will be a different Commission and a different European Parliament. Electorates around Europe have already shown a taste for Euroscepticism and may start demanding some of the changes that Cameron seeks.

However, unlike the eurozone’s moves towards deeper integration, Cam-eron’s problem is that he does not have the impetus of a crisis to act as a lever to get what he wants. So what is in it for other every other country?

Cameron will have to come up with better answers to that question if he is to get his way.