Final CBS/NYT/Q-polls in OH, FL, VA show Obama up …

posted at 8:41 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’re down to the final week of the election, where we’d normally expect to see pollsters fine-tuning their samples in order to get the most predictive survey results ahead of the election. It’s refreshing, therefore, to see the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac partnership decide to buck that trend and stick with consistency. Their polls in the most hotly contested swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Virginia all show Barack Obama edging Mitt Romney — as long as voter turnout resembles Obama’s big win in 2008:

President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)

OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)

VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)

In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.

Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008. First, let’s start with independents:

FL: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7

OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8

VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1

Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9

OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11

VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11

Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap. In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents. In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm. I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.

The media is going all in on for Obama. They obviously haven’t cared about journalistic integrity for 4(really 6) years, and Benghazi was the nail in the coffin. So why bother using accurate poll samples less than a week out from the election?

The only reason Gallup and Rasmussen got their act together was because polling is their business. They can’t afford to look like fools on Election Night.

The fact that they aren’t adjusting their samples to a more realistic sample probably means that we’re going to see a lot of accusations that a Romney win is illegitimate and somehow Republican cheating was involved.

They are setting the bar high for the amount of Democrat fraud they are counting on here. Sorry, CBS/NYT; 7% fraud is simply not doable; 3% – which will STILL be a record- is the achievable goal (and Obama loses in all three states in that case,)

Ohio’s been gone for a while. Not just this poll, but just average them all together and the result is brutal.

And we’ve got the MU law poll coming out in WI that may shoot down any hopes Romney has here.

BTW, how about that front page pic of Obama and Christie! Nah, Christie isn’t angling for 2016…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Again, if I were Obama I know I would be absolutely estatic to have a 5 point lead in poll of Ohio where the sample is D+8. /s

You know that means that 3 percent of Democrats aren’t voting for Obama right? If we take this number to where the actual Ohio vote was in the historic 2008 election that would put Romney ahead by one and if we were to put it where it was in 2010, that would have Romney stomping Obama in Ohio. I’m sure Obama is thrilled right now.

I don’t like these videos coming out with libs threatening riots if Romney “steals” the election coupled with these polls with bogus samples showing obozo with a lead. I may be paranoid, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t trying to seal this election.

BTW, how about that front page pic of Obama and Christie! Nah, Christie isn’t angling for 2016…

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Nah, Christie is angling for federal dollars. And if you don’t think Obama’s petty enough to withhold those funds from a disaster area if he feels unappreciated, just come on down to the Lone Star State and ask those wildfire victims how much help they got from Dear Leader.

This is quite satisfying – once again a major media outlet – in this case two outlets – along with a polling outfit cannot see past their own biases to assess the world as it really exists. Let me guess – in Ohio they have those ridiculous early voting polling assumptions that are in direct conflict with the reality in the SoS’s office? Sweet!

I love the smell of desperation in the air for the One and his minions.

I also haven’t seen a gender gap in Ohio that large from anyone else. And of course the catholic church has doubled down on some less than honest lay persons within their ministry to pretty much tell their parishoners that you can parse positions all you want but Obama is for abortion and that don’t fly. I think I read somewhere a parishoner flipped off her priest as she stormed out of mass. Love the tolerant type – hey tough having your cozy little world view shattered by someone saying in fact you cannot have your cake and eat it too!

Rush has been saying that these polls will refelct the true sample as the election gets to its final days, to protect their “reputation” when the results arrive.
If he is right, this is what CBS/NYT believes is the upcoming make-up, and we lose.

Is it possible these guys are SO in the tank for BHO that they are willing to trash their reputations to get to what, we hope, are the skewed results they published?

I don’t like any of the excuse-making on OH, this state has me worried. However, I find that averaging wildly divergent polls is a dubious practice since the sample sizes and margins of error are inconsistent among them.

Is it possible these guys are SO in the tank for BHO that they are willing to trash their reputations to get to what, we hope, are the skewed results they published?

gonnjos on October 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

The answer for that question is “Absolutely”… They do not give a dman about their reputation… The pollsters the media hires does not give a damn of being accurate as long as they are giving the media the results that they want because he knows that the media will always hire them to give them the results that they want…

nathor – and it has been closing and continues to – VA is already gone (pull PPP out of VA and recalc!)as is Ohio – which puts Mitt up – so Mitch has already won. But I do want more! Cmon lets get more states.

I don’t like any of the excuse-making on OH, this state has me worried. However, I find that averaging wildly divergent polls is a dubious practice since the sample sizes and margins of error are inconsistent among them.

RedRedRice on October 31, 2012 at 8:57 AM

I’m from Ohio we’re doing fine. The parts of SW Ohio we had to flip back to have a shot have flipped.

Is it possible these guys are SO in the tank for BHO that they are willing to trash their reputations to get to what, we hope, are the skewed results they published?

gonnjos on October 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I assume that’s rhetorical. Of course they’re that far into the tank for the dude. They buried the Benghazi story for God’s sake. A massive coverup of a preventable terrorist attack that killed 4 Americans and it gets almost no press outside of FoxNews?

It’s pretty simple. If you look at the folks who are just pollsters(Ras, Gallup, Mason-Dixon, Suffolk, etc.), their numbers seem pretty accurate. Shoot, some of them are so confident of Romney wins in certain states that they’ve even stopped polling in them. The pollsters who are tied to news organizations(WaPo/ABC, CBS/NYT, CNN, NBC/WSJ) are the ones who are still using ridiculous partisan samples that no one believes will reflect the actual turnout on Election Day. And the reason is that most of the aforementioned news outlets are desperate to get Obama reelected.

I wonder what it’s like to live in Obama’s world where the truth is always hidden in bubble wrap, and his fragile ego must be protected at all costs. Better to incite riots and cries of racism than to just tell the little prince that he’s losing.

Is it possible these guys are SO in the tank for BHO that they are willing to trash their reputations to get to what, we hope, are the skewed results they published?
gonnjos on October 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Explain to me who they have to apologize to that matters to them if they say Obama should have won?

Quite the contrary they will be liberal heroes who have exposed the vote fraud of the electorate or they will be in an incredible amount of company. Also I would add if you care enough to cover-up Libya to say you wouldn’t sandbag Romney doesn’t add up.

And/but at some point someone is going to have to explain how Obama could have leads in so many polls where he is losing independents

@MarkHalperin

What are examples of recent national or battleground state polls in which the President leads with independents?

Flora Duh on October 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Halperin: the one person on Moaning Joe who’s mind I wish I could read. But it really isn’t that hard.
(“Oh Schmoe, you moron. Do you actually believe that BS you’re spewing? It’s over, dude. Dean Wermer dropped the big one.”)

haha “Mittmentum” is dead which is why Willard is stumping in Florida all day today- Florida needed to be comfortably in his column right now for him to win esp. w/ Ohio gone. Mitt is done!

Can’t wait to come here next Tuesday night!

DBear on October 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Since you didn’t bother to read what I posted upthread and I was born and raised in Ohio so I know the status of Ohio…

Again, if I were Obama I know I would be absolutely estatic to have a 5 point lead in poll of Ohio where the sample is D+8. /s

You know that means that 3 percent of Democrats aren’t voting for Obama right? If we take this number to where the actual Ohio vote was in the historic 2008 election that would put Romney ahead by one and if we were to put it where it was in 2010, that would have Romney stomping Obama in Ohio. I’m sure Obama is thrilled right now.

Why even post polling results like these? It’s a waste of time and emotional energy. If the samples are worthless, point that out in the headline, not in the tag. We don’t need propaganda to get us down. Just sayin…

Of course he does. His posts are effectively content free, and he NEVER responds to any substantive post.

He’s nothing more than a propagandist. I’m just not sure whether he’s being paid to do it, or he’s really just a severely disturbed individual.

The fact is that there’s no way that we’re going to see a D+8 electorate this year in any of these states. Anyone who thinks this is either fooling themselves or is still pushing the inevitability meme.

It’s hard to understand why a news organization would get involved in something that amounts to partisan electioneering, but I guess they have so little credibility with anyone except the hard left at this point it really doesn’t matter.

Why don’t the pundits on TV talk about the D+8, D+7, etc.? They take all of polls and use them. Even Karl Rove. Why don’t they point this out? Are we fooling ourselves here?
peakspike on October 31, 2012 at 9:01 AM

They all do but everyone loses that point in the discussion as they go on to discuss the prepared questions that assume the poll is true and unless someone like Rove wants to keep repeating it he ends up discussing why Romney is behind. It isn’t smart let’s put it that way.

Take comfort. No one in the battleground states is going to think it is over and not vote. This strategy will not work to say he up but it is close in altering turnout.

It hasn’t gotten too much attention outside of talk radio, but if accurate, Gallup’s study of early voters neutralizes one of the Obama campaign’s best road-to-victory talking points. As it conducted tracking polls (which have been paused for now), Gallup asked voters whether they’d cast ballots or intended to before election day. The early voters broke 52-46 for Mitt Romney. The dawdling voters who would vote before election day were tied, 49-49. The voters waiting for November 6 broke for Romney, again, by a 6-point margin.
This would be easy to explain away if Obama had lagged in 2008’s early vote. After all, this study includes votes in Georgia and Texas and other places that have broken away from Obama. But . . . in 2008, Obama was winning this vote. An identical Gallup study taken around the same time gave Obama a 53-43 lead with early voters and a 50-44 lead on voters who would wait for election day.

Also – curious on the RCP no toss up map how they give Obama VA when Romney leads their polling averages – even with some screwy D+ skews in there? IN that case it should read Romney 270 – Obama 268 – this is with Obama winning Ohio, NH, Iowa and Wisconsin as well as Minn, Mich and Penn of course.

Obama isn’t going to win all of those states. Its over – just finish the race.

We’ve all seen the pictures of the rat-eared wonder in the White House situation room “getting” Osama. We’ve all seen the pictures of the rat-eared wonder in the White House situation room monitoring Hurricane Sandy. Where are the pictures of the rat-eared wonder in the White House situation room ordering rescue forces to stand down after those being attacked begged for help three times?

WHEN OBAMA WANTED TO ATTACK OSAMA, HE CALLED THE SEALS. WHEN THE SEALS WERE UNDER ATTACK AND CALLED OBAMA THEY WERE IGNORNED.

Posting these polls with an explanation is VERY important if you read this thread. It’s tough to keep the bed-wetters in line who like the public are taking these polls as facts in stone. Which is also why CBS is doing it.

Nah, Christie is angling for federal dollars. And if you don’t think Obama’s petty enough to withhold those funds from a disaster area if he feels unappreciated, just come on down to the Lone Star State and ask those wildfire victims how much help they got from Dear Leader.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

“Nice little state you’ve got here, Chris. It’d be a shame if we couldn’t find any federal aid money to help you rebuild it buy votes for ’16…” – Barky