Thursday, October 28, 2010

Perry headed for reelection

Rick Perry's in a solid position for reelection as Governor of Texas, leading Bill White 53-44 on PPP's final poll of the race.

For White it may be a classic case of the right candidate running in the wrong cycle. He has strong favorability numbers at a 46/39 spread while Perry can only break even on his approval rating at 45% giving him good marks and 45% bad ones. White leads with independent voters 50-44. That makes him one of very few Democratic candidates anywhere in the country leading with that group this year and it's all the more impressive given that Barack Obama's approval rating with that same ground of independents is a 33/55 spread.

Ultimately though to win as a Democrat in Texas you're going to have to win a fair amount of crossover support from Republican voters and in the end White just wasn't able to do it. Just 11% of GOP voters are planning to support him, a number equivalent to the 11% of Democrats who plan to vote for Perry. In this highly polarized political climate Republicans just aren't particularly inclined to vote for any Democrat, even an unusually appealing one like White.

Even if he isn't ultimately successful White's candidacy could have some positive benefits for other Democrats in the state locked in close races. Texas is seeing virtually no enthusiasm gap, especially when compared to the huge drops in Democratic turnout PPP is seeing as likely to happen in other states. Having an appealing person at the top of the ticket has the party's voters there more engaged than in most places.

It looks like Rick Perry will beat back a strong opponent for the second time this year. There's no politician in the country this year who's defeated a more formidable duo than Kay Bailey Hutchison and Bill White.

PPP doesn't include mobile phones which will make a difference with the big Democratic GOTV effort. Still, can't believe the ignorance of the conservative voters considering all the negatives Perry has. Cowboy hat, guns, and a model's profile combined with low voter knowledge and an anti-Democratic wave is triumphant. Talking to conservatives, who are mainly anti-White, they don't realize that Perry is worse in the categories they are criticizing White for - for example, Houston checks with INS immediately upon arresting someone, the state of Texas doesn't. Few conservatives know about Perry's $20 billion plus deficit.I blame the poor Texas media as well as the easily emotionally swayed voters.Until two people with cameras actually find Perry in bed with a younger man he is headed for a bigger role in the national GOP.