Monday, March 02, 2009

It's March, and the madness has officially begun. It was an especially crazy week on the bubble, where several teams (Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Michigan) missed out on chances to get back into the field and several teams that had been hanging on to bids (Kansas State, Kentucky) saw their bubbles burst - at least for the moment. These results, and others, made it a tough task to fill the last couple of spots in this week's bracket. There were some small changes - Temple lost its bid-stealer status thanks to losses to LaSalle and Dayton, BYU made the field after beating San Diego State and Utah, Kentucky dropped out after losses to South Carolina and LSU, and Texas A&M replaced Kansas State as the final Big XII at-large - and there were some bigger (and likely more controversial) moves made as well.

The first big move we made wasn't really a change, but rather our continued inclusion of Notre Dame in the field. We had hinted last week at the idea that Providence would replace Notre Dame in the bracket after their win over Pitt (and ND's loss at UConn), but in the end, we decided to stick with the Irish. We were encouraged by how they played against the Huskies, and we think that they are going to beat Villanova (who didn't look good against Georgetown) at home tonight and finish 9-9 in conference. A 9-9 finish plus two Big East tourney wins we think will be enough for ND to get a bid. We don't think Providence will be able to win at 'Nova this weekend, which means they will finish 10-8 in conference. If that happens, they would finish with just two Top 50 wins (compared to ND's presumed four), plus the Irish just beat the Friars in their building a week and a half ago. We like Cincinnati's chances to get to 10-8 as well, but their overall resume, especially in conference, isn't as good as ND's. We know we may look stupid in the end by keeping the Irish in (especially if they lose tonight), but we've been riding them for a while now and don't think it's time to jump off quite yet.

The other notable move we made this week was putting St. Mary's back in the field. The Gaels have won five in a row, and seem to have learned to play without Patty Mills. Even more important for St. Mary's was the fact that thanks to Portland's losses to San Diego and Santa Clara this week, the Gaels earned the No. 2 seed in the WCC tourney - and the double-bye to the semis that goes along with it. We like their chances to win their semifinal game (with or without Mills), and we also like the reports we are reading on their star guard's health and his possible return for the semis and finals. If Mills plays, we are confident that the Gaels can beat Gonzaga on a neutral floor and get the automatic. St. Mary's only lost by two to the Zags at home without Mills, and they were beating Gonzaga pretty handily with Mills in the first half of the their first meeting before he got hurt. UPDATE: (7:00 p.m. ET Monday): According to Andy Katz, Mills has been cleared to play in the the WCC tournament.

The other minor changes to the bracket this week came in terms of seeding. Kansas moved up to the 2 line after their monster week, Washington moved from a 5 to a 3 after sweeping the Arizona schools, Tennessee moved up to an 8 after a two-win week, and UNLV stayed in the field as an 11 despite losing at Utah in their only game of the week. We are confident that the Rebels will win their last two games (although at SDSU this weekend won't be easy), and even if they don't (which would really damage their at-large hopes), we think that there is an outside chance they could win the MWC tourney on their home floor and get the automatic.

67 comments:

I know you guys posted the rankings this week that furhter proved that Lunardi is a fraud, but his bracket today is a complete joke.

Unfortunately with his bracket he offers absolutely no explanation and doesn't answer the thousands of questions fans have. Futher reasons why B101 is well ahead of Lunardi.

Somehow he has both VT and Kentucky as a 10 seed. Both are a complete joke. VT will lose both games this week and finish 7-9 in the conference, and will be nowhere near a bid barring a miracle in the ACC tourney.

He has not left Miami out of his bracket one time this year, which is ridiculous as well. 6-8 in conference still does not cut it. If they lose at GT this week they are FINISHED.

Somehow after two big road wins in the ACC, Duke is at a 3 seed. There is no reason in the world Michigan St. should be ahead of them just because they're winning a very mediocre Big Ten.

I would love to know his logic behind this garbage, but that's right he gives you none. Sorry to vent on this forum, but I know you guys agree with me

VT is more than 8 out? I think they'll be able to steal one this week (most likely at FSU) and force a play in game with Miami in the first round of the ACC tourney. They had Duke on the ropes for a minute on Saturday until the officiating kicked in... 8 offensive fouls? gimme a break...

We've seen Lunardi do some pretty ridiculous things with his bracket over the years, but his latest bracket may be one of the strangest he's ever posted - especially this late in the year.

There is absolutely NO way that VT and Miami should be in over Maryland at this point. There's a very, very good chance that VT finishes 7-9. Even if you ignore future games, like Lunardi does, it's impossible to give VT a bid right now over Maryland. They've lost six of their last nine, and two of the wins they had in that stretch were against Georgia Tech and N.C. State at home. What's even more ludicrous is that he has SDSU in over Maryland right now. How is that possible?

We also agree with you that there is no way that Kentucky is a 10 seed right now. How are the Wildcats in over Florida...and SAFELY in? Kentucky has a 66 RPI (Florida's is 49) and Florida hosts Kentucky this weekend. You would have to figure Florida wins that game. Lunardi, because of his "season ending today" formula, will just swap the two next week as if nothing happened.

Another Lunardi gem you didn't mention was his multiple bids from the MVC this week. Instead of making a tough call on another bubble team (maybe put Maryland in?), he took advantage of the fact that Northern Iowa got the No. 1 seed in the MVC tourney and put them in as the automatic and gave Creighton the at-large. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Bluejays get an at-large, but a lot has to go their way if that's going to happen. Lunardi's not considering any of those things happening; he's just all of a sudden liking UNI to win the MVC tourney just because they are the 1 seed. This is from the same guy who has Creighton at an 11 seed (and rising) in his new bracket.

We will have to agree to disagree about Virginia Tech. We don't like the Hokies' chances at all against Carolina, and we don't think they're going to win at FSU either. The 'Noles have been great at home this season, and are coming off a nice home win against Clemson. They've only lost twice at home in conference all season - once against Duke in an ugly game that they were pretty competitive in, and once against Carolina where they only lost by 3. We know the Hokies are capable of winning on the road, but we ultimately like FSU to come out on top.

So here is a more fun one. Lets say VT loses both games and plays an 8-8 Miami team in the first round of the ACC tourney, could VT get in with a win and a decent quarterfinal showing vs UNC there? Would Miami get in with 8-8 and a win over 7-9 VT? Lets say MD get's the 7 seed and loses to NCState, would the VT/Miami winner get a bid over them? Can you tell I am all ACC all the time?

I would like to know what your feeling is about the Terps. If they go 9-7 are they safely in?? How about 8-8 with a Wake loss and 1 tournament win? It just seems other Bubble Teams are faltering and if MD can win at UVA a 3-5 Road Conference record is not that bad

Here's our bracket schedule from here on out: We are going to do another bracket on Friday, and then do one on Monday as usual. We will begin daily updates (or as-needed updates) next week.

If Minnesota beats Wisconsin on Wednesday, they should be safe (as long as they win their first Big Ten tourney game). If they lose to the Badgers, it sets up an elimination game with Michigan on Saturday. If Michigan loses, they'd fall to 8-10 and be done. If they win, they would be in ahead of Minnesota, since they would have swept them for the season.

If the Terps finish 9-7, they're a lock for a bid. If they lost at home to Wake and finished 8-8, they'd need at least one win in the ACC tourney to get a bid. One win and they'd be right in the mix, and two wins would get them in.

If VT finishes 7-9, they would need more than a win over Miami in the ACC tourney to get a bid. They'd have to win that second game against Carolina. An 8-8 Miami team would be right on the bubble if they beat VT in the first round. They would need some other big conference bubble teams to lose early in their conference tournies and would have to hope that there weren't many bid-stealers out of the mid-majors.

C'mon, you can't give Lunardi crap about the "season ending today"/"teams at the top of their league standings get the automatic bid" approach when he's held fast to it for years now. He has his way of doing things, you have yours, and even if you think your way is better it doesn't mean his doesn't make sense. While it's perfectly fine to differ with him about whether Va. Tech or Maryland has the best resume right now (I agree with you the Terps do), it's not OK to rag him for projecting that UNI will win the MoVal tourney when he's not doing that at all. UNI's at the top of the standings, so they get the auto-bid in his bracket until they aren't. It's the way he's done it forever.

Also: before slamming someone else for their alleged mistakes, you should get your terminology straight. The conference tourney winners get the 31 _automatic_ bids, the invitees get the 34 _at-large_ bids. St. Mary's won't win an at-large in the WCC final, they'll win an automatic.

We know Lunardi has done his bracket his way forever, but we just don't think that it very meaningful or accurate to do it that way, especially this late in the season. To have two MVC teams in today means that one other bubble team is out when they really should be in. It's just not a method that makes a whole lot of sense to us, but he's not going to change because we criticize him. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree with his method. (Thanks for the heads up on the St. Mary's typo...it's all fixed).

The Big East could get nine bids, but we think eight is much more likely. Seven teams are a lock at this point. Notre Dame, Providence, Cincinnati, and Georgetown will fight it out for the eighth and (potentially) ninth bids.

How is South Carolina still in everyone's brackets? I know they have 20 wins, but who have they beaten? Their biggest non-conference win is at Baylor. None of their conference wins are even over teams firmly in... their top wins have been a sweep over Kentucky and at home against Florida.

I just wanted to leave some comparisons here... Team A is 3-3 vs top 50 rpi teams... Team B is 6-6 Team A's Conference is rated 10Team B's conference is rated #1Team A's biggest wins are over a 6 seed and an 8 seed, with those 2 games being the ONLY games team A has won against teams currently in your bracket, with a win also in your next 4 outTeam B's biggest wins both come over 5 seeds, though they also have an additional 5 wins over teams in your bracket. Team A has losses that include a 5, a 7, and a team in your "next 4 out"Team B has 2 losses to #1 seeds by a total of 9 points, a loss to a 2, a 3,an 8, a team in your last 4 out, and an upset loss to a team not mentioned in your bracket.

Team B has the 2 best wins of the group, the 3 best losses, more top 50 wins, more top 100 wins, and less games against the teams under 100...

Team A is memphis, who is about to finish slaughtering all of the JV teams that make up the CUSA, for the gazillionth year in a rowTeam B is Florida State, who has come out of nowhere to have a halfway decent shot at 11-5 and second place in the ACC

Somehow, memphis has risen all of the way from an 8 seed in your dec 24th bracket to a 3 seed in your last bracket, i guess on the heels of big wins such as drexel, UCF, marshall, Rice, East Carolina, Southern Methodist (ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!) Southern Miss, and Tulane... Florida state would have run through that schedule too...

My point here is that FSU should be way ahead of memphis in the bracket.

How is it that Penn State deserves to be in, but Georgetown doesn't? Penn St.s OOC is putrid (and that is being kind). After Temple and Rhode Island -- they lost both games, with the Temple loss at home -- their next best OOC game by RPI was Mt. Saint Marys (#121 using CollegeRPI). Penn St. had only 2 OOC games against Top-100, and lost both. 4 total (including those 2) against Top-200. 9 against OOC opponents with present-day PRI of 200-347. Georgetown had 5 OOC games against Top100 teams, going 3-2 with their only 2 OOC losses for the season coming against RPI#2 Duke (away) and #21 Tennessee (neutral court).

Yes, Penn State has 2 nice road wins at #8 Michigan St. and at #23 Illinois, but are those any more impressive than at #1 UConn and at #16 Villanova (Georgetown having those)?

Penn St. also has home wins against #20 Purdue and against unranked Minnesota and Michigan (neither of whom are even in the "others getting votes" category in today's USAToday poll). Meanwhile, Georgetown has home wins against #3 Memphis, #25 Syracuse and against Providence, who is in the "others receiving votes".

Penn St. has an RPI of 64. Georgetown has an RPI of 40.

Each played Mt. Saint Mary's (their only common opponent) at home, and one week apart. Penn St. wins by 5, Georgetown by 11.

Each team has also played opponents from 3 common leagues:

Both Penn St. and Georgetown have played ACC teams -- Penn St. beat Georgia Tech (1-13 in ACC) by 2, while Georgetown beat Maryland (7-7 in ACC) on a neutral court by 27 and lost to Duke (10-4 ACC) at Duke by 9.

Each played teams from the Colonial. Penn St. beat William & Mary (5-13 in Colonial) by 14 points and Towson (also 5-13 in Colonial) by 24. Georgetown beat Drexel (10-8 in Colonial) by 28.

Each played 1 Patriot League team. Penn St. beat last place Lafayette (4-10 in Patriot) by 28, Georgetown beat league-leader American Univ (13-1 in Patriot) by 24.

How on earth can any rational person (A) put Penn St. in the NCAA tournament in front of Georgetown; and / or (B) say with a straight face that there is not a quota system in place for numbers of bids per league?

I guess Georgetown should have done what it was usually criticized for in the past and scheduled a whole bunch of NJITs, New Hampshires and Hartfords in order to crank up the win total.

On the same token, FSU should also be higher than Purdue, who has the same record, but plays in a much weaker conference, the big 10, has an OOC RPI 30 places lower, with their OOC SOS being 70 places lower, FSU has more top 25 RPI wins, 2-1, FSU also has a road top 25 win, whereas purdues came at home. Using Jeff sagarins predictor ( most accurate one i could find, he predicts FSU to fininsh 11-8 vs top 100, including 6-6 vs top 50, with purdue finishing 11-9, including 6-7 vs top 50...

Its only slight differences, bu FSU even has a higher RPI than purdue... Why is purdue ahead?

As long as BC wins one more game, they'll be in. With their remaining schedule, that should be a pretty easy task.

South Carolina is certainly not safe or a "lock," but they are still in everyone's field because they have a good chance to finish with 11 SEC wins and win the SEC East. You are right in saying that they have not been any of the solidly in SEC teams, but the truth is that there are only two SEC teams that look pretty solid right now (LSU and Tennessee). The Gamecocks get their shot at the Vols at home on Thursday and if they can win that game, they'll likely finish 11-5 (they finish up Saturday at Georgia) and they'll get a bid.

Silly us...we thought FSU fans would be happy that their team was finally a lock for the dance and not sweating it out on the bubble. Apparently not. (Just kidding...)

That said, we wouldn't go too crazy about Purdue being seeded ahead of FSU. The Boilermakers are a grand total of one spot ahead of the 'Noles on the S-curve and both teams are on the 4 line. To say the Big Ten is a "much weaker" conference than the ACC is a bit harsh, considering both are projected to get seven bids at this point. The ACC is the No. 1 conference; the Big Ten is No. 2. If you want to compare the two teams based on Top 50 wins, Purdue has seven right now and FSU has five.

Comparing FSU to Memphis is much more intersting case. We know that the Tigers' conference schedule is a complete joke, but it shouldn't overshadow what they have been able to do this season. They have zero chances in conference to pick up quality wins (unlike FSU) and they have managed to rack up wins at Gonzaga, at Tennessee, and home vs. Cincinnati. Against their only halfway decent conference opponent, UAB, they posted two double-digit wins. Despite a joke of a conference schedule, they have an RPI of 8. That's worthy of at least a 3 seed, and if they win out, there is a chance that Memphis is a 2 come Selection Sunday.

It is really hard to imagine how the Big Ten can get 7 bids. It is an absolute compared to the Big East and ACC. After Michigan State (who is very good), I would be VERY surprised to see another Big 10 team in the Sweet 16. However, I see the Big East and ACC having 4+ teams each in Sweet 16.

To the poster who said that Georgetown is the only team with wins against two top-5 teams: You have to look only 12 miles up the road to College Park. The Terps beat #5 Michigan State in November, and #3 UNC a couple of weeks ago.

FSU also beat cincy... and even though Memphis has no oppurtunity for quality wins in conference, they also have very little oppurtunity for losses, as all of the other teams in their conference are terrible... take UAB who is fabulously overrated with that top 40 RPI... consider that they are 0-5 vs top 25 rpi, and only 3-10 overall vs top 100 RPI teams... UAB's lone good win is over arizona, the next best one is... UTEP who is 3-8 vs top 100, and lost to santa clara (207 RPI) and tulane(197)

"I know the education at Maryland is subpar, but I thought that basic reading was something you were expected to have comprehended when you graduated. Michigan State IS #8 in both polls."

No need for insults... he was using rankings at time of victory according to his rankings... Memphis was only 15th ranked when Georgetown beat them... To be fair, georgetown is also the only team that has a 4-11 stretch on its resume currently being considered for a bid

Georgetown also beat Maryland by 30 on a neutral court (and it could have been a lot worse but Gtown called off the dogs...a level of class Maryland apparently does not have as evidenced by the Vazquez 3 at the end of the game last night)

We gave URI a lot of thought this week and even toyed with the idea of putting them in the field as a bid-stealer, but in the end we decided against it. Unlike Temple, who we had in as a bid-stealer for two weeks, the Rams don't have a good enough profile to get an at-large. If Temple had won out (like we thought they might) they would have had an outside shot at an at-large. URI would have to win the A-10 tourney to get a bid, and with Xavier still solid and Dayton righting the ship a little this past week, we weren't prepared to predict an A-10 tourney title for the Rams.

Bob Knight said a few weeks back on College Gameday that the flip side of "can you win" is "have you won". As a result, I believe Pomeroy's rankings to be irrelevant. He openly admits that they are meant to be predictive, rather than based on achievement. Besides, his predictor is based almost exclusively on margin of victory. What major conference team *couldn't* beat every Conference USA team by 20+?

B101 => Would you say that Notre Dame's loss is really Georgetown's gain. It seems as though the committee would probably be willing to make a reach for one team in the Big East with a subpar conference record given its strength, and now Georgetown has an opening to be that team. Whereas if Notre Dame won, and won their next two games, I really didn't see how Georgetown would be able to get a bid over them (even though the committee is not supposed to take conference affiliation into account like that). Also, this makes Georgetown's win over 'Nova on Sat that much more impressive. Thanks again for answering all these questions I visit the site like 50 times a day!

ND's loss tonight is huge news for Providence, Cincinnati, and Georgetown, but it's especially good news for the Hoyas, who came into the day fourth on the list of Big East bubble teams. If the Hoyas can get to 8-10 as expected, we can definitely see a scenario where they win two Big East tourney games and get a bid. They are the new "leap frog" team in the league, if you will, replacing ND. A lot still has to go right in terms of bid-stealers and other big conference bubble teams losing, but the Hoyas are closer to the field now than they were a few hours ago.

Why doesn't URI have enough to merit consideration if they make the A-10 finals? RPI is up to 55, they have 6 top 100 wins (3 OOC), and are incredibly hot (10 W's in last 11 games.) If they get to the finals, that means they will have beaten Dayton (RPI 28) again in the semis and will have 25 wins. I don't see a 25 win team that is 3rd place (and just beat #2 twice in a row) in the #8 conference getting left out.

I think the PAC-10 is being seriously underestimated this year. Pomeroy has them rated as the #2 conference, barely below the ACC.

http://kenpom.com/conf.php?c=P10

Their seventh team, USC, is #41 in the country. A good case could be made that all seven should go, especially with the much weaker teams from back east seen as locks. As it is, Arizona will be the scariest 10 seed in NCAA history. Woe to the #7 and #3 teams they will demolish in the tournament.

I don't know if you're aware of this, but Jerry Palm said on his site at some point that Villanova IS allowed to play in Philly. He checked with the NCAA. So I would think your 3/6 pods could swap between Miami and Philly for Wake and Nova.

"memphis gets a pass on their weak conference because of program history"

Nonsense. The same rankings that show C-USA as the 10th rated conference have Memphis as no. 5 and FSU as no. 34 (Sagarin). Conference rankings are taken into account in those ratings and Memphis is way ahead of FSU--esp. when you take margin of victory into account. (Memphis is no. 4 in the PREDICTOR ratings, FSU is 49)

Memphis may not have as many quality wins, but they didn't lose to someone as bad as Northwestern on the road and they haven't come close to losing against a sub-100 team like Ga. Tech at home.

Notre Dame is a lock?Sure their playing a tough schedule ranked as an SOS of 31 but they've lost 4 of their last 6 including a loss to Cinci and WV. And with their only legit wins coming against Louisville and Texas what do you see in their resume versus teams like Oklahoma St. or Providence?

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