I'm the Founder and Managing Partner of Ironfire Capital LLC, which runs a tech-focused hedge fund and angel fund. I did a Ph.D. in Management at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business in New York, with a specialization in Strategic Management. You can follow me on Twitter @ericjackson, subscribe to me on Facebook, follow me on Sina Weibo, or Circle me on Google+. My email is: dr.eric.jackson@me.com

What's Going To Be Apple's Next Killer Product? Not A New iPhone - Artificial Intelligence

What will be the biggest new Apple (AAPL) product introduced in the next 5 years?

In the last 5 years, we’ve seen the introduction of the iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch and Apple TV. Surely there will be many new and exciting products to come in the next 5 years.

And what could make them even more interesting is that they will likely have spent much of their development life without being under the watch of Steve Jobs, who died over a year ago.

But I actually don’t think we should expect the same number of world-changing new mobile products in the next 5 years. The existing product line-up is still pretty new and has lots of potential to be improved in the next few years – especially once they release the iPad Mini (soon) and TV (probably next year).

Apple doesn’t need to build the next great stylus or talking pen. But what they do need is better glue to tie all these devices together and make them sing.

That’s where Artificial Intelligence comes in.

AI seems to be a far off futuristic notion, but it’s actually much closer than we think. As Peter Thiel said to Bloomberg TV yesterday, we’re probably no more than 10 years away from being shuttled around in driverless cars – especially with 93% of traffic accidents caused by driver error.

How else will the world be different in 10 years from now? Chances are pretty dramatically.

If I had to guess, it will be AI that will be behind most of those changes. AI is the key secret sauce behind Siri, Maps and Passbook (Commerce).

Today, we see the rudimentary basis for how our lives could be made much simpler with Siri, Maps and Passbook. Yet, the gulf between our hopes for what each of these services could be and current reality is still vast. Because of that, the conventional wisdom is that these services “don’t work.” We write them off.

That’s silly and short-sighted. AI will be the horsepower that bridges the gulf and gets them to where we all want them to be. That will take time, the right AI people, data and money. Apple’s got all four. Start-ups – and even large companies like Twitter and Facebook (FB) – do not.

In 5 years, I expect that we’ll still have smaller, lighter iPhones and iPads. Maybe they’ll be emitting holograms in front of us. However, I don’t think we’ll be wearing some new sunglasses made by Apple.

Instead, we’ll be actually using our post-PC devices in a way that makes our life easier:

full integration of iOS software in our car for Maps, Siri, commerce suggestions while on the road and iTunes and iRadio

instead of our broadcast TV channels like CNN and CNBC deciding what additional content to show us around our HD screens, our own personal interests to be reflected

an ability to monitor and control our homes remotely (heat, lighting and security)

an actual relationship with our Siri personal assistant where she learns our likes and dislikes perhaps even better than our spouse knows us

truly helpful commerce suggestions made by geographic or other triggers

helpful suggestions about what to watch on TV or even on what subjects to learn to make us a better executive, spouse, or parent

an offloading of a number of mundane but necessary day-to-day tasks to allow us to focus on more important parts of our work and family lives

The tools are now in our hands to make our lives easier in this post-PC era. What’s missing is the AI to make those tools sing.

It’s coming.

AI will be the biggest new Apple “product” when we look back 5 years from now.

Post Your Comment

Post Your Reply

Forbes writers have the ability to call out member comments they find particularly interesting. Called-out comments are highlighted across the Forbes network. You'll be notified if your comment is called out.

I follow you religiously on Forbes, CNBC, and I read your blog. You are one of the few who deeply understand Apple. I completely agree that AI is the future. Furthermore, I completely agree that wee will NOT be wearing ridiculous glasses that allow us to text or broadcast our day to day lives (Google Glass). Imagine how annoying and ridiculous they will look…who wants to wear glasses to get data? True innovation will make technology effortless; It will get out of our way and truly help us on a daily basis. iAI is the future!

I think Google is well placed here as well “after all Google’s Director of Research, Peter Norvig, co-authored the standard AI teaching text (AI: A Modern Approach), and Google has both data and money.” [quoted from: http://universal-machine.blogspot.com]

I am skeptical about the premise of the article. Oh, I agree that AI is the future, specifically Strong AI being the end goal but what makes you think that Apple will be the next AI king? The reasons you gave are basically because Apple has a lot of money, developers, and they have Siri. Google fits in to the equation better, they have research labs specifically dedicated to AI. As for Strong AI, I doubt if either company will produce it. It will probably be a research lab you have never heard of.

Thanks for your insights. While I agree that AI is the missing link, the next big thing and something that will loop all future devices, commerce, and communications, I beleive that in the current context, Google is better positioned to reach to that level than Apple. Simple and short reason being -Data.

Google has massive amount of data that can be leveraged to power up the smarts of AI. Not to mention that Google is now integrating some real AI brain equivalent into its Algorithms. Check this link- http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/06/27/google-builds-a-brain-that-can-search-for-cat-videos/

People have been predicting the advent of useful AI for two decades. I’m not optimistic. We still can’t explain human intelligence so how are we going to mimic it in a machine?

I also find the potential uses of such technology as listed above somewhat dubious. Do we really need AI to tell us what to watch on TV or what to buy? Do we need Siri to be our best buddy instead or our spouse? Exactly what mundane tasks am I going to be able to offload to my AI connected devices? Can they take out my trash, wash my dishes, or descale my coffee pot?

I have also never understood why I need to monitor my house so closely. Light switches are pretty simple to operate. So are thermostats. And what good is AI that calls me to let me know the burglars already made off with my stuff?

I’m surprised you didn’t mention the refrigerator that is going to call me to let me know I’m out of milk and the smart toilet that will analyze my excrement to let me know when I need to see my physician. Those two seem to be favorites in articles like this.

Technologists (and I am one) tend to be overly optimistic about the promise of new technology. I have heard a lot of empty promises and read about a lot of vaporware over the past twenty years. I’ll believe in Apple’s (or anyone’s) hyper-brilliant AI when I see it.