Miami at Seattle Week 1 Odds Analysis & Expert Pick

The biggest mismatch of the opening week of the NFL season? Oddsmakers believe it’s when Miami makes the longest trip possible in the NFL (not including international games) to visit the preseason NFC favorite on NFL betting odds, the Seattle Seahawks.

Dolphins vs Seahawks Historical Betting Trends

Dolphins are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Why Bet on Miami?

I probably wouldn’t in this game. The Fins lost top running back Lamar Miller to free agency and he wasn’t really replaced. But the likely starter, Jay Ajayi, at least believes in his quarterback, Ryan Tannehill.

“Definitely just seeing a lot more growth just through this year, you know last year for me I was a rookie so I was still trying to just figure everything out, now just being in the mix, being out there with him in the huddle and everything, it’s been really great,” Ajayi said. “Seeing how he’s been able to work with coach (Adam) Gase and seeing what he’s been doing on the line of scrimmage, just being able to make those different calls and things like that, it’s been really cool to see and I’m excited to see him blossom and really dominate this year.”

Meanwhile, potential No. 2 receiver DeVante Parker will enter training camp 100 percent healthy. Parker was in and out of offseason practices, but it was mostly an effort to keep him fresh after his rookie year was marred by injury. Parker did appear to be dealing with an actual ailment in minicamp, but coach Adam Gase went to great pains to paint it as minor. When Parker did take the field last season, he averaged 19.0 yards per catch. That’s stellar.

Defensively, the Dolphins pretty much maintained the status quo at linebacker in the offseason, but they did make one potentially important move with the acquisition of Kiko Alonso in the trade with the Philadelphia Eagles that also brought in cornerback Byron Maxwell. The only question with Alonso is whether he can regain the form he showed as a rookie with the Buffalo Bills in 2013, and based off what we saw in the spring there’s reason to be optimistic. Alonso’s athletic ability and coverage skills made him a spectacular playmaker with the Bills during that 2013 season.

Why Bet on Seattle?

There’s no tougher place to play in the NFL than Seattle. With Marshawn Lynch having retired, Thomas Rawls will be the featured back. The 22-year- old said his rehab from a broken ankle and ligament damage suffered last season was progressing well. When asked specifically if he expected to be fully ready by the start of training camp, Rawls was emphatic, answering “Most definitely.”

Rawls led the team with 830 rushing yards in 13 games as a rookie in 2015 after signing with Seattle as an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan. The 5-foot- 10, 217-pound back will join a crowded backfield featuring 2016 draft picks C.J. Prosise, Alex Collins and Zac Brooks, along with former top pick Christine Michael. A combination of Rawls and Prosise gives Seattle a two-headed monster at running back that it didn’t have with Lynch. The offense was more one-dimensional with Lynch getting the ball 20-plus times a game.

Had it not been for Rawls’ emergence in the backfield, Seattle may not have made it to the postseason. Rawls’ surprising rookie campaign helped elevate the game of Russell Wilson, too. After all, in games that Lynch started, the Seahawks were 2-4 last year. In those same games, Wilson threw seven touchdowns and six interceptions. In the other 10 games, Wilson had 27 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

My Expert Pick

I’d be shocked if Seattle doesn’t win by double digits. Take the Hawks on NFL odds and the under total.

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