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truck drives on a street at Port Elizabeth in New
JerseyThomson
Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Economists raised their forecasts for U.S.
economic growth in the third quarter but trimmed their estimates
for the balance of 2014, though the outlook for both job growth
and lower unemployment was strengthened.

Analysts see the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.0 percent
in the current quarter, up from a previous estimate of 2.9
percent, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's
quarterly survey of 43 forecasters, released on Friday.

Fourth-quarter growth was forecast at 3.1 percent, down from a
previous estimate of 3.2 percent, and first-quarter 2015 growth
was estimated at 3.1 percent, unchanged from an earlier estimate
of 3.1 percent.

Meanwhile, they see the economy growing at a rate of 2.1 percent
for all of 2014, down from the previous estimate of 2.4 percent
in the previous survey in May.

Growth in 2015 is expected to come in at 3.1 percent, unchanged
from the 3.1 percent estimate in the May survey.

The pace of hiring was expected to accelerate in the current
quarter compared with previous expectations, with an average rate
of monthly nonfarm job growth seen around 228,600 versus a
previous forecast of 204,700. That is expected to dip in the
fourth quarter, averaging 211,200, although that is up from a
prior forecast of 197,900.

Hiring should average 204,800 a month for all of 2014, compared
with the prior full-year forecast of 196,500.

The jobless rate was expected to be 6.1 percent at the end of the
current quarter and 6.0 percent by the end of the fourth quarter.

The most recent official unemployment rate released by the
government showed the jobless rate in July stood at 6.2 percent,
up a tenth of a point from June's reading, which was the lowest
since September 2008.

Inflation was expected to remain muted, with year-on-year core
consumer price inflation, which strips out food and energy costs,
averaging 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with a
previous estimates of 1.8 percent. Fourth-quarter core CPI was
seen at 2.1 percent versus a previous forecast of 1.9 percent.

Looking at the inflation measure most closely tracked by the U.S.
Federal Reserve, the core personal consumption expenditures, or
PCE, index, forecasters also see muted price pressures. The
third-quarter rate was seen at 1.8 percent, up from 1.7 percent
in the May survey.

(Reporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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