Evan Silva

NFL Draft Preview

Draft 2011: NFL Mock 4.0

The NFL draft is just over two weeks away, and a consensus is forming for the top three picks. Assuming no trades, I'd put a 95 percent chance on Cam Newton going first to Carolina, 98 percent on Marcell Dareus to Denver, and 85 percent on Von Miller to Buffalo. The Bills covet Newton, but they will take the 2010 Butkus Award winner if the Heisman winner goes off the board ahead of them.

The wild card is Cincinnati.

As SI's Peter King told PFT Live Monday, "I will not believe the Bengals aren't taking Blaine Gabbert until I see it with my own eyes." Popular mock-draft thinking has Mike Brown's team drafting a receiver, either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. We're sticking with Gabbert in the fourth spot.

How the Bengals approach the fourth pick will have a major impact on the remainder of round one.

The Panthers have decided to take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick, and prefer Newton's upside and dominant track record to Blaine Gabbert's mediocrity. With 93 touchdowns in 31 career college appearances, Newton defines "playmaker" at the most important position in the sport.

Dareus' impressive college production has been overlooked in Nick Fairley comparisons; he was really only a full-time player one year at Alabama, yet racked up 11 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. A stronger option than Fairley, Dareus gives Denver's woeful defensive line depth chart credibility.

33 sacks, 50.5 tackles for loss, and 10 forced fumbles. The 2010 Butkus Award. Miller's body of work compares favorably to any of this year's top-ten picks, and his ability to bend and explode by offensive tackles is also second to none. Chan Gailey will wait for his franchise quarterback.

LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is another strong possibility, but need trumps value when the talent differential is so small. A freakish athlete with 4.57 speed at 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, Quinn would combine with O'Brien Schofield to give Arizona a formidable long-term outside pass rush.

The 2010 Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson projects as a press-man corner capable of bottling up vertical, split end-type receivers. Also a playmaker fresh off a four-interception season, Peterson would allow the Niners to turn the page on Nate Clements.

Lacking scheme versatility and a consistent motor, Fairley's "boom or bust" factor and inability to appeal to all teams will push a top-five talent out of the top seven. The 2010 SEC Defensive Player of the Year won't bypass the Titans as a near lock to be the best player left on their board.

Smith was a right tackle only at SC, but his impressive feet and overall athleticism have generated comparisons to D'Brickashaw Ferguson. With Peterson certain to go in the top seven, Smith will be Dallas' highest rated player at a position they must upgrade with Marc Colombo on his way out.

Statistically, Locker grades out as an undrafted free agent with a 53.9 career completion rate, 15-25 record, and 6.65 yards-per-attempt average. Athletically, Locker is a picturesque fit for the Shanahans' scheme, which relies heavily on its quarterback making throws outside the pocket.

The NFL draft is just over two weeks away, and a consensus is forming for the top three picks. Assuming no trades, I'd put a 95 percent chance on Cam Newton going first to Carolina, 98 percent on Marcell Dareus to Denver, and 85 percent on Von Miller to Buffalo. The Bills covet Newton, but they will take the 2010 Butkus Award winner if the Heisman winner goes off the board ahead of them.

The wild card is Cincinnati.

As SI's Peter King told PFT Live Monday, "I will not believe the Bengals aren't taking Blaine Gabbert until I see it with my own eyes." Popular mock-draft thinking has Mike Brown's team drafting a receiver, either A.J. Green or Julio Jones. We're sticking with Gabbert in the fourth spot.

How the Bengals approach the fourth pick will have a major impact on the remainder of round one.

The Panthers have decided to take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick, and prefer Newton's upside and dominant track record to Blaine Gabbert's mediocrity. With 93 touchdowns in 31 career college appearances, Newton defines "playmaker" at the most important position in the sport.

Dareus' impressive college production has been overlooked in Nick Fairley comparisons; he was really only a full-time player one year at Alabama, yet racked up 11 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. A stronger option than Fairley, Dareus gives Denver's woeful defensive line depth chart credibility.

33 sacks, 50.5 tackles for loss, and 10 forced fumbles. The 2010 Butkus Award. Miller's body of work compares favorably to any of this year's top-ten picks, and his ability to bend and explode by offensive tackles is also second to none. Chan Gailey will wait for his franchise quarterback.

LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson is another strong possibility, but need trumps value when the talent differential is so small. A freakish athlete with 4.57 speed at 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, Quinn would combine with O'Brien Schofield to give Arizona a formidable long-term outside pass rush.

The 2010 Thorpe Award winner as college football's top defensive back, Peterson projects as a press-man corner capable of bottling up vertical, split end-type receivers. Also a playmaker fresh off a four-interception season, Peterson would allow the Niners to turn the page on Nate Clements.

Lacking scheme versatility and a consistent motor, Fairley's "boom or bust" factor and inability to appeal to all teams will push a top-five talent out of the top seven. The 2010 SEC Defensive Player of the Year won't bypass the Titans as a near lock to be the best player left on their board.

Smith was a right tackle only at SC, but his impressive feet and overall athleticism have generated comparisons to D'Brickashaw Ferguson. With Peterson certain to go in the top seven, Smith will be Dallas' highest rated player at a position they must upgrade with Marc Colombo on his way out.

Statistically, Locker grades out as an undrafted free agent with a 53.9 career completion rate, 15-25 record, and 6.65 yards-per-attempt average. Athletically, Locker is a picturesque fit for the Shanahans' scheme, which relies heavily on its quarterback making throws outside the pocket.

Draftniks question Smith's ability to drop into coverage, but the Texans won't be picking him to shut down tight ends. Drawing comparisons to DeMarcus Ware, Missouri's single-season sack record holder can be new Texans defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' next big-time pass rusher.

The Vikes are enamored by Locker, but he won't get by Washington as Mike Shanahan's coveted quarterback in this draft. A safe pick at a need position, Amukamara could allow Minnesota to consider sliding Cedric Griffin to safety and upgrade a porous secondary save Antoine Winfield.

Detroit must draft the best lineman available to keep Matthew Stafford healthy. Castonzo draws comparisons to Jake Long as a rock-solid pass protector with ample run-blocking upside. He'd start at right tackle in year one, and eventually replace Jeff Backus on Stafford's blind side.

Jones could conceivably go earlier than 14, but the odds on that happening diminish greatly once Washington passes. And we're convinced Shanahan is smitten with Locker. While St. Louis isn't "one player away," Jones instantly makes Josh McDaniels' offense considerably more lethal.

Ponder was a consensus first-round prospect entering the 2010 college season. After three arm surgeries in his final two years, his stock has come full circle with perhaps the finest offseason of any draft-eligible quarterback. Sorry mock drafters: The Dolphins aren't taking Mark Ingram at 15.

The Jags are rumored to be targeting quarterbacks, but Locker won't fall to them, and they're drafting behind another passer-needy team. It isn't a great position for Jacksonville. They can fall back with an NFL-ready guard in Pouncey to shore up a weakness in the front five.

Kerrigan had more career sacks (33.5), tackles for loss (57), and forced fumbles (14) in college than Von Miller, and faced better offensive lines in the Big Ten. While he isn't quite as explosive off the snap, Kerrigan fits the Pats' mold as a versatile, Mike Vrabel type who just makes plays.

Watt could go earlier if 4-3 teams believe he's capable of affecting the quarterback as a left end, but he may lack the first-step burst that all four-man front clubs crave in linemen. San Diego's biggest weakness is at "five technique" end, and Watt is a perfect fit for the Chargers' system.

Has any player's stock risen as quickly as Liuget's since the end of the college season? Drawing comparisons to Tommie Harris and Gerald McCoy, the interior pass rusher is a legitimate top-20 prospect after receiving a third-round grade from the Draft Advisory Committee in January.

Bowers' camp has done its best to downplay the knee concerns, but last year's NCAA sacks leader is dealing with degenerative arthritis in the joint. Teams will be extremely wary of a pass rusher who already wore a one-year wonder label, and is now nursing an explosion-sapping injury.

We've admittedly had Carimi lasting too long in our first three mocks; this is a premier offensive lineman who would be picked in the teens if not for the abundance of difference-making, first-round pass rushers. In Kansas City, Carimi could book end Branden Albert for the next ten years.

Colts president Bill Polian has been publicly clobbering his offensive line for two years, so it's probably time he does something about it. A 6-foot-6, 312-pounder with smarts (second team Academic All American) and ideal length (84-inch wingspan), Sherrod is ready to play in the NFL.

A legitimate top-15 talent with shutdown ability, Smith's character concerns won't cause him to slip past an Eagles defense that may be one right cornerback away from a Super Bowl appearance. Smith is a true man-to-man, "press" corner with enough physicality to also fill hard in run support.

Many draftniks wrote off Sheard after a relatively under-the-radar college career that included one negative off-the-field incident. The character concerns are overblown, however, and the 2010 Big East Defensive Player of the Year will be an impact player in Gregg Williams' defense.

Seattle has shown minimal interest in retaining free agent Brandon Mebane, potentially leaving a gaping hole next to Colin Cole at defensive tackle. Wilkerson can play both five-technique end and "three-technique" as a long, lean pocket pusher at 6-foot-4, 315 with nearly 36-inch arms.

Reed pushed himself into round one with a Clay Matthews-like 10-yard split in Indianapolis, and the Ravens confirmed their interest during a March 28 private workout. Jarret Johnson is entering a contract year at age 30, so Reed could help on nickel downs before replacing him in 2012.

27. Falcons: Danny Watkins, guard, Baylor.

Both Falcons starting guards are free agents, and so too is right tackle Tyson Clabo. Perhaps the draft's nastiest offensive lineman, Watkins could play any of the three positions in Atlanta. Though he's only 6-foot-3, 312, Watkins has plenty of length (34-inch arms) to replace Clabo if needed.

The media overrated Jordan after a sensational Senior Bowl; he just isn't a natural rushing the passer. Steve's son still offers value as a late first-rounder for 3-4 teams. Jordan played in a three-man front scheme at Cal, and he has long arms and massive hands to occupy blocks.

Austin's college career left lots to be desired (nine career sacks), but talent will keep him in round one. The nation's former top defensive tackle recruit has rehabbed his stock with an exceptional offseason, dominating at the East-West Shrine and standing out at the Combine and NC Pro Day.

Coach Rex Ryan values linebackers that can both rush and drop, and Ayers was a playmaker in coverage with six interceptions at UCLA, two of which he ran back for scores as a sophomore. The Jets have a great defense, but their outside 'backers are mediocre getting to the quarterback.

Taylor has rare movement skills for a 6-foot-4, 337-pounder and could project as 34-year-old nose tackle Casey Hampton's eventual successor in Pittsburgh. The Steelers would probably prefer an offensive lineman or cornerback, but may struggle to find one with enough value to draft here.

Smith is the ACC's all-time leader in kick return yards, an area he'd immediately add an explosive element to Green Bay's pedestrian special teams. Raw as a wideout, Smith could develop as a fourth or fifth receiver early before taking on a more prominent role in the Packers' five-wide sets.