“Present estimates of coal reserves – which take into account location, quality, recoverability, and transportation issues – are based upon methods that have not been updated since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess coal recoverability in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually recoverable. Such findings emphasize the need for a reinvigorated coal reserve assessment program using modern methods and technologies.”

Between 2000 and 2006, over 150 coal plant proposals were fielded by utilities in the United States. By the end of 2007, 10 of those proposed plants had been constructed, and an additional 25 plants were under construction. But during 2007 a large number of proposed plants were cancelled, abandoned, or put on hold: 59 according to the list below.

14. “Coal plants cancelled in 2008“, Sourcewatch — “Since the beginning of 2008, the following 19 proposed coal plants have been cancelled, abandoned, or put on hold, including 18 projects the United States and 1 project in the Netherlands:…”

15. “How Much Coal Remains?“, Richard A. Kerr, Science, 13 March 2009 — “The planet’s vast store of coal could fuel the world economy for centuries–and fiercely stoke global warming — but a few analysts are raising the prospect of an imminent shortfall.”

“Peace and Security in the Niger Delta“, Conflict Expert Group of WAC Global Services, December 2003 — Without big changes to how Shell works with the government and the communities of the delta, Shell could be driven out of the Nigerian oilfields by 2008.

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6 thoughts on “Peak oil & energy: Studies & reports”

Have you found any paper on Low Energy Nuclear Reactions and its prospects for future energy production? I have found this slideshow, sounds pretty interesting: Slideshow by Tyler van Houwelingen, posted at e-Cat World (Following the Low Energy Nuclear Reaction Revolution), 26 July 2012.

Low Energy Nuclear Reaction Revolution are what was originally called Cold Fusion.

Some experts believe that this is a promising area of research, although exactly what lies at the end can only be guessed at. Even if there is some sort of nuclear reaction releasing heat, that does not mean that it will can scale to a useful level. And if that is so, it might still have no commercial potential — considering the cost of materials, and the on-going inputs required (eg, the heat might degrade the materials).

Early days yet. Unfortunately all of the many new advanced energy systems under development remain in early laboratory stages. So we cannot count on any of them to help generate significant fraction of the world’s power during the next 20 years — at least.

Although I agree that LENR (I prefer this term since it is not cear if it is fusion) is still in its infancy and it is far from being well understood, there are already a few commercial startups: at least 3 of them say they can commercialize products in the Kw range thermal power within a year or less (water boilers). Temperatures of the cell range from 100°C to 600-800°C with low neutron and gamma radiation and seem suitable for mass production. New cells use Nickel (low cost and abundant) instead of Palladium of the early experiments. I get your point, it might take decades to scale up but surely fossil fuel shortages would boost demand for alternatives and LENR sounds like a potential candidate. Do you know any paper discussing its potential?

I have not followed the literature. And I am skeptical of people claiming commercialization in a year. There are usually several steps on that path (There are no agreed-upon definitions for each of these stages):

Laboratory: testing proof of concept.

Pilot Plant: A larger unit built to generate information. Such as about the optimal engineering design, impact of operating parameters on process efficiency and product quality, qualification of input requirements, development of safe operating procedures, and estimates of capital and operating costs.

Demonstration plant: A larger scale plant that generates significant quantities of product, testing decisions made at the pilot level.

Commercialization: production plants

Corporate, government and ngo money typically funds the first two stages. Successful operation of a pilot plant provides basis on which venture capital (for example) might consider funding further work.

The many small fusion projects (eg, the Polywell) are all still in the lab stage.

I understand very well what you’re saying but we are not talking of large, hundreds of MegaWatts plants. The LENR prototypes we are talking about are in the KW range, they are more similar to home water boilers or a Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG). How many Pilot plants and Demonstration plants were built when they invented the water boilers or the RTG?
RTGs were developed in the US in the late 1950s by Mound Laboratories in Miamisburg, Ohio and the first operational unit was was SNAP 3 in 1961 aboard the Navy Transit 4A spacecraft, only a few years after the laboratory stage. The entire soviet arctic lighthouse network was powered by RTGs in the early ’70s. Now RTGs were limited by the availability of the radioisotopes and public acceptance of radioactive devices. LENR generators it seems don’t have any of such limits! I would recommend you to have a look at that field.

“they are more similar to home water boilers or a Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTG). How many Pilot plants and Demonstration plants were built when they invented the water boilers or the RTG?”

Neither example supports your thesis.

The steam boiler was invented in the first century AD (eg, Hero of Alexandria), repeatedly tinkered with during following two millenia (Wikipedia) — and commercialized in the late 17th century. So it in fact went through the conventional development process — but VERY SLOWLY.

The Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (RTF) is not yet commercialized on any significant scale (see Wikipedia), and has followed the standard development process. Applications do far are in effect pilot plants in the commercialization process — such as the use by NASA. Much as NASA pushed the development of solar cells and fuel cells.