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I've been searching, unsuccessfully, for almost a year now to answer this question:

What is the correlation between admissions at one elite program and another. I would think that someone who is admitted to Harvard has much higher chance of being admitted to Wharton than someone who was rejected by Harvard. Not because of any direct association between the decisions, but because the two programs are likely to evaluate the applicant in similar ways, and therefore reach the same conclusions. I'm sure someone must have the data and must have tested them, but I can't find it anywhere.

I have no idea if anyone has done that sort of analysis, but what I can say is that I've definitely seen some randomness. For example a friend of mine got into Stanford but rejected from Yale. Another friend of mine got into wharton but rejected from Johnson.

this doesn't prove anything since they're just a couple of examples, but it leads me to believe that the correlation might not be as strong as you might expect

I wonder if Yale and Johnson were just protecting their yield by rejecting applicants they expected to get offers elsewhere. Also, people may take admission to less competitive schools for granted and submit subpar applications. _________________

Blogging about the MBA application process. Because I need to do something with all this bschool energy. http://www.mybreakaway.com/Recent post: September 20, "Transitions"

I was originally waitlisted at Duke whereas I got into Sloan, Haas, and Tuck straight away, so the process can certainly be random. But I agree that if someone gets into a school like HBS and puts the same effort into each of their applications, they are probably more likely to have success elsewhere.