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Friday, 27 June 2014

What are you going to do now Berlin?

Bucharest Airport,
Romania. 27 June. It is not my normal practice to devote three
blogs in one week to the same subject.
However, when a development takes place that justifies a third missive I
will so do from time to time. Yesterday I
had a very constructive conversation with a senior German who clearly understands
the gravity and the implications of Jean-Claude Juncker’s disastrous appointment
as European Commission President which will be confirmed in Brussels today.

There is much talk of
Cameron’s ‘failure’ but this is a political disaster of Germany’s making. Chancellor
Merkel is the real author of this mess. She
has demonstrated herself to be unreliable, irresolute and all too willing to
impose German domestic politics on the rest of Europe. Worse, she has been aided and abetted by the appalling
lack of backbone by the political invertebrates/amoeba who claim to 'lead' other EU
member-states. Many of them are quietly and
equally concerned by the Juncker appointment but switched sides the moment
Merkel wobbled in the face of an assault by Bild.

True to form I have
just heard the new Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb calling for Britain to
“wake up and smell the coffee” and be more ‘pragmatic’. That is Euro-speak for
the abandonment of all political principle and the unquestioning acceptance of
all and any Brussels diktat. Stubb, who
I know, suggests that the EU is good for Britain. What are you putting in your coffee, Alexander?
A report out today by respected
think-tank Civitas demonstrates that
there are few economic benefits for the UK from EU membership and there has not
been for a long-time.

Stubb went on to warn
of a complete shut-out from the EU market if Britain left the EU. Not only would that be illegal it reflects
the just how dishonest EU leaders are at such moments. Take Liberal Democrat and Chief Secretary to
the Treasury Danny Alexander. As Cameron left for Ypres this week he cited a
Treasury (Finance Ministry) report claiming the loss of three million jobs
should Britain leave the EU. This was an
extreme scenario cited in the report.
Sadly, the use of false statistics typifies the method of federalist’s
like Alexander who seek to mask their true political ambitions. In fact Danny Alexander used to be the leader
of a group called Young European
Federalists something which he now tries to hide from the very people he is
seeking to con.

Over coffee here at
Bucharest Airport my German colleague conceded to me that this is a very
dangerous moment. However, he also said
rightly that very few Germans want either an EU Government or a German
Empire. Indeed, not one sensible German
with whom I have spoken recently wants either.
Most of them would rather England won the World Cup than, although the
likelihood of an EU Government is the greater.

One reason that this
has happened is that European leaders have not had an honest conversation with
each other about the finalité of the EU in Euro-speak. It is a conversation that is urgently needed.

My proposal will
infuriate smaller EU member-states but then again Luxembourgeois Juncker’s
pending appointment is but the latest piece of EU small state tyranny. However, it is vital the leaders of Britain,
Germany, France and Italy sit down and discuss both the limits of ‘Europe’ and
a programme of real reform rather than the pretend ‘thing’ that will emerge
today. In any case other leaders have
simply demonstrated the EU’s “and me too” tendency – whatever Germany wants
goes.

The first aim of such a
chat would be to establish the nature and extent of the disagreement between
the big four member-states. Talking to
my German colleague my sense is that in fact whilst disagreements about the
role and size of Brussels do exist they really are not that great.

Equally, if as a result
of this debate there is indeed an enormous gap in both ambition and principle
between Britain, France and Germany then at least leaders can begin to start
considering sensibly the practical nature of a changed British relationship
with the EU.

The Juncker appointment
means the EU and its member-states must finally answer the question that has
been long in the making but which can no longer be fudged by ‘pragmatism’; is
the EU a tight collective of partner states or a proto-European government? My sense of my German colleague is that
whilst Berlin might disagree with aspects of Britain’s position Germany still
wants the former rather than the latter. If so, Berlin must say that loud and clear.
Indeed, unless an honest discussion
takes place between the Big Four over the finalité politically devious
federalists will continue to exploit the silence between them and we the voters
will be ignored again and again.

This is a political
mess of your making Germany. If the EU
is reduced to a tawdry debate between domestic German politicians and federalists
fanatics Britain will indeed leave and rightly so. In time the EU will fall apart as bureaucracy,
false legitimacy and false democracy rot its institutions from within. Do you want that Berlin?

As for Jean-Claude Juncker;
given the more free-trade, less bureaucracy ‘reform’ agenda today being
discussed by EU leaders Juncker is completely the wrong man with the wrong
beliefs in the wrong job.

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.