This blog on Texas education contains posts on accountability, testing, college readiness, dropouts, bilingual education, immigration, school finance, race, class, and gender issues with additional focus at the national level.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Field Poll: The growing political might of ethnic minorities

The 2012 elections may prove to be a turning point in California
politics – one that has been many years in the making – as the political
might of the expanding ethnic voter population fully exerted itself in
this year's statewide elections.

According to the network exit poll, Latinos, Asian Americans and
African Americans collectively made up about 40 percent of the state's
voters in this election, roughly equivalent to their share of the
state's overall registered voter population. This means that turnout
among the state's ethnic voters was about equal to the turnout of their
white non-Hispanic counterparts, a first in California election
politics.

The preliminary vote counts have President Barack Obama carrying
California by more than 20 percentage points, despite white
non-Hispanics supporting Mitt Romney by eight points, a reversal from
four years ago when they preferred Obama over John McCain by six points.
Obama was supported by overwhelming margins among the state ethnic
voters, meaning his entire victory margin here was due to their turnout
and support.

The network exit poll showed the President winning among
California's Latinos by 45 points, Asian Americans by 58 points and
African Americans by 93 points.

While not as extreme, the same pattern was seen in the vote on
Proposition 30, Governor Jerry Brown's tax increase initiative. It leads
in the preliminary returns by about nine points. While
white non-Hispanics divided their votes evenly in the exit poll, ethnic
voters collectively supported it by 20 points, again giving it its
entire margin of victory.
When I first began polling at The Field Poll in the late 1970s, the
influence of ethnic voters on California election outcomes was less, and
top-of-the-ticket races were typically more competitive affairs, with
each party winning their share of the elections. For example, in the 16
elections for president, U.S. Senate and governor between 1978 and 1994,
Republican candidates won nine times, while Democrats won seven times.

The 1994 election marked a turning point, as ethnic voter
participation began its ascent. What appeared to stimulate this surge
was the passage of the highly divisive illegal immigration
initiative, Proposition 187, which had the full support and backing of
the Republican Party and of Governor Pete Wilson, who was running for
re-election that year.
A comparison of Field Poll estimates of the composition of the
state's registered voters in 1994 to what it is today illustrates the
dramatic effect that the growth in ethnic voters has had on the
electorate over the past 18 years.

In 1994 there were 14.7 million registered voters in California. Today there are 18.2 million voters.

Of the 3.5 million voter increase over this period, about 3
million – or nearly 90 percent of it – came from Latino and Asian
American voters.

As this transformation in the state's electorate was occurring,
California's Latino and Asian American voters were becoming more
supportive of Democratic candidates. In the 1980s and early 1990s, it
was not unusual for Republicans statewide to win more than 40 percent of
their support.

Ronald Reagan did it in his re-election run for president in
1984. George Deukmejian also did so in his re-election bid for governor
in 1986, as did Wilson in his first-term election as governor in 1990.

Compare that to this year's presidential election, where Latino and Asian American support for Romney was about half this level.

It is no coincidence that since 1994 California has changed from a
competitive purple state in presidential politics to one of the
nation's bluest of blue states, with the Democratic ticket winning the
last four presidential elections by double-digit margins, the last two
by more than 20 points.

As the state's ethnic voters have taken on greater prominence,
The Field Poll has allocated more of its polling resources to examining
their opinions and reasons behind their voting preferences. Seven of the
thirteen Field Polls conducted in the 2010 and 2012 election years were
conducted in six and sometimes seven languages and dialects. These
polls also allocated 300-400 additional interviews among Chinese
American, Vietnamese American, Korean American, and sometimes Filipino
Americans, to obtain a more detailed accounting of the polyglot of
voters that comprise California's Asian American electorate.

When combined with the poll's Latino and African American samples,
these multi-ethnic surveys help explain the factors pushing them more to
the Democratic column.

The first relates to what should be done about the approximately 2.5
million illegal or undocumented immigrants currently living in
California. Large majorities of the state's ethnic voters, including
85 percent of Latinos, view this as a salient issue and support
government policies that would provide these residents with a path to
citizenship.

While the issue of immigration usually comes to mind first in
discussion about ethnic voters, if I had to cite one area that best
explains why ethnic voter support for Democratic candidates is growing,
it would relate to their view of the role of government.

The network exit poll showed California's white non-Hispanics
evenly divided about whether the government should do more to solve the
nation's problems or whether it was doing too many things better left to
businesses and individuals. By contrast, ethnic voters believed that
government should be doing more nearly two to one.

A concrete example of this is how ethnic voters here view the
Affordable Care Act, more commonly known as Obamacare. Since its passage
in 2010, Field Polls have shown Californians consistently supporting
the law by double-digit margins. Whereas white non-Hispanics are evenly
divided, the law is strongly supported by ethnic voters. A main factor
behind this support is their belief that the law will benefit them and
their families, whereas whites are skeptical.

Other findings from the multi-ethnic Field Polls provide
additional clues as to why ethnic voters are increasingly migrating to
the Democratic Party.

For example, we found a huge generational divide between the
opinions of younger ethnic voters compared to their elders on several
social issues. While majorities of older ethnic voters oppose gay
marriage and marijuana legalization, majorities of the state's ethnic
voters under 35 support both.

This can be viewed as a continuation of America's long tradition
of becoming a melting pot for immigrants, especially when it comes to
their sons and daughters. However, it undercuts the notion that on most
social issues ethnic voters may be more in sync with the traditional
values and beliefs of the Republican Party.

This bodes poorly for the long-term electoral fortunes of the
Republican Party in .the state, since the demographic changes now
unfolding in the California electorate will continue well into the
foreseeable future. Demography marches on.

As GOP voter registration in the state now dips below 30 percent, and
we witness an election in which the Republican presidential candidate
is preferred among white non-Hispanic voters by eight points, but loses
the election statewide by more than twenty, it's probably time to begin
listening more attentively to the views of the state's fast-growing
ethnic population.
--Ed's Note: The report is available here at The Field Poll Archives.