Dec 21, 2011

Hiring More ALJs? Decline In Disability Claims?

There is a report at the ALJ Discussion Forum that Social Security intends to hire 107 Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) in September 2012. The same person also reports that there has been a decline in the number of disability claims filed in the last three months, particularly in October.

I do not doubt that Social Security wants to hire more ALJs next year. I would be very surprised if they have the money to do so. This sounds like a plan that is likely to be out of the question because of Social Security's budget crunch.
By the way, if you're ready to ascribe the reduction in the number of disability claims filed to the reduction in unemployment, take a look at the numbers for the unemployment rate this year:

January 9.0

February 8.9

March 8.8

April 9.0

May 9.1

June 9.2

July 9.1

August 9.1

September 9.1

October 9.0

November 8.6

The reduction in unemployment, unfortunately, is modest and almost all of the reduction happened in November, not October. If you still believe that the rate of unemployment determines changes in the number of disability claims filed, why didn't we hear about a big increase in the number of disability claims filed between March and June of this year?

Any uptick in SS apps due to increased unemployment will not be noticed for several months, if not years. Most people who are getting unemployment are not seeking SS and are rightly counselled that accepting unemployment comes with the caveat that they are admitting to being "ready, willing and able to work" (or some similar variant, depending on the state). Therefore, they collect unemployment, then apply for SS when those funds end. This can be as much as two years under our current system of endless handouts.