Fareed Zakaria commentary: Obama and Rouhani: Can either deliver on a deal?

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Friday September 27, 2013 6:15 AM

Hassan Rouhani presents himself as a striking contrast with his predecessor. For the past
several years, the president of Iran has held a breakfast meeting with a small group of journalists
during the opening of the U.N. General Assembly. In recent years, the event had become a depressing
routine. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would saunter in, ramble and rant about the dangers of U.S. hegemony,
deny the Holocaust and taunt his invited guests.

Rouhani, by contrast, arrived punctually, elegantly attired in flowing clerical robes, and spoke
intelligently and precisely about every topic discussed. His only peroration was against “
Iranophobia”; he implored the media to visit Iran and present the real picture of his country to
the world.

“The nuclear issue can be resolved in a very short time,” Rouhani said, showing a surprising
degree of optimism about an issue that has proved extremely difficult. “The world wants to be
assured that our program is peaceful, and we want to help them gain that confidence.” The economic
sanctions against Iran have taken a heavy toll. Rouhani spoke forcefully about the damage to
Iranians — denying people food and medicine. He suggested that both the United States and Iran have
made miscalculations but said that was in the past. He was hopeful about better relations.

I came away willing to believe that Rouhani is a pragmatist. He wants to end his country’s
isolation. But it remains unclear whether he has the authority to act on behalf of his government.
Consider what happened Tuesday, when the Iranians turned down a White House offer of a brief
meeting with President Barack Obama. Rouhani explained that he had no problem “in principle” with
the handshake but said that this was a “sensitive issue” and that it would have been the first such
meeting in 35 years, so steps have to be taken with proper preparation. One has to wonder: If
Rouhani does not have the freedom to shake Obama’s hand, does he have the freedom to negotiate a
nuclear deal?

The Tehran government has another side, made up of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the special
force whose political influence has grown over the past decade. These people are hawkish on all
foreign-policy issues. They also profit from the sanctions, because their businesses have become
the only path for trade and smuggling. Perhaps the most encouraging news from Iran in the past two
weeks was that its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, publicly addressed the Guard and said its role was
in national defense, not “policy.”

U.S. doubts about Rouhani’s power can be addressed only over time and through Iranian actions.
But Iranians probably also have doubts — about Obama’s power. After all, the new Iranian president
appears willing to cooperate on the nuclear issue in return for a relaxing of the sanctions
crippling his country. But can Obama provide any such relief?

Iran has dozens of layers of sanctions arrayed against it. Some are based on U.N. Security
Council resolutions, others are decisions by the European Union, others are acts of Congress and
still others are executive orders by the U.S. president. Obama can unilaterally lift only the last,
which are the least burdensome. The most onerous by far are the sanctions passed through acts of
Congress, and those will be the most difficult to lift.

That would require Congress to behave in a rational manner — which is a fantasy today. The most
likely scenario is that any agreement with Iran — almost regardless of its content — would
instantly be denounced by Republicans as selling out. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., already has gathered 10
other Senators who insist that, unless Iran dismantles most of its civilian nuclear program and
becomes a liberal democracy, none of the sanctions can be eased.

The Obama administration is conscious of the other side of American government. Much of the
macho rhetoric emanating from the administration about Iran has seemed designed to inoculate it
from charges of being soft. The reality is that it remains unclear whether Iran can say yes to a
nuclear deal — and equally unclear whether the United States could. Rouhani and Obama are probably
each looking at the other and thinking the same thing: Can he deliver?