(Blurry photo by me of Mike Conley, Jr., in a mask in pregame warm-ups. Memphis coach Dave Joerger said it was “unlikely” Conley will play today. UPDATE: Conley is officially out today.)

* Quick non-playoff note: Floyd Mayweather ,Jr., is almost impossible to beat, full credit to him for that, and he was absolutely not going to lose to Manny Pacquiao last night. Pacquiao was the far, far inferior fighter. Maybe Manny of 5 years ago could’ve found Mayweather with serious combinations, but not the Manny of 2015.

I’m always amazed that a fighter with Mayweather’s extreme tactical style got himself to this peak earning level; at some point, you do want to see punches landed and guys anywhere near in trouble. But you just never get that with Mayweather. He’s too good at what he does, and that’s mainly figuring out the space he needs to be at, flashing away from anything hard coming his way, and economically piling up points one at a time with counter-punching.

Mayweather is a great, great fighter who has maximized his earning power beyond all imaginings. He also has a long history of domestic-violence involvement.

These are who he is, and you can respect the talent and the achievements while also being disgusted with his conduct and/or disappointed that every time you want to see him in a real fight, Mayweather does this. He wins. It’s boring. Next fight.

–Scheduling reminder: If Stephen Curry wins the MVP, it seems likely that it will be announced tomorrow, the usual timing for this award (second round off-day for the winner).

Then, if he wins, Curry will appear on-court with the commissioner and the trophy right before Game 2 at Oracle. That’s the way the NBA likes to do this award, that’s what I expect.

Yes, I believe Curry will win,as I’ve written frequently, and I believe it will be announced tomorrow at some point after the Warriors practice.

If there’s NO announcement tomorrow… then that would be a large sign pointing to the probability of James Harden winning it, probably on Tuesday (a Houston off-day after Game 1 of Houston-Clippers tomorrow).

So here’s my traditional game-by-game guess:
–Game 1 today at Oracle: The Warriors are 10-point favorites, which seems like a ton, especially since they only one of the four games vs. New Orleans by more than 10, and that was the 11-point close-out victory in Game 4.

I think the Grizzlies keep it close even if Mike Conley Jr. misses this game, maybe helped by some Warriors sluggishness thanks to the long layoff, and I’ll guess that the Warriors struggle some with their second unit.

But the guess is that Curry and Klay Thompson will hit some shots late in the third quarter that begin the pull-away, Kerr keeps his starters on the court for longer than usual, and the Warriors win by 8 to 10.

–Game 2 on Tuesday at Oracle: I think Conley might make it back for this one–I’ve recited the stats about a team going up 2-0 in a series over and over (if you go up 2-0 you historically go on to win the series more than 90% of the time), and I would assume Memphis knows these stats, too. So I’ll say Conley gets into this game… I just don’t know how productive he can be.

I’ll say Memphis puts up a huge fight, maybe gets some great minutes from Jeff Green and Tony Allen, and clamps down the Warriors offense… but again, I’ll say the Warriors dig deep in the second half and again limit the bench minutes, and the Warriors win by 2 or 3 points.

–Game 3 on Saturday in Memphis: I think the Grizzlies might win this one by a lot. It’ll be desperation time, the Grindhouse is a rough place to play, especially if Conley is healthier (there will be a ton of time off between Games 2 and 3) and Memphis will be desperate. Memphis is pretty good, by the way.

–Game 4 on Monday in Memphis: The big one–and the Warriors have won every big one they’ve faced this season; I think they’ll squeeze it out with the usual ingredients–Curry and Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, and maybe some key plays from Andre Iguodala and Marreese Speights.
–Game 5 on Wednesday May 13 at Oracle: Close out. I’ll say this again: Who is beating the Warriors at home in the playoffs? Not the Grizzlies, not in this series. That’s the prediction.