Act now, or face war in Ukraine

By Andrew C. Kuchins

updated 12:42 PM EDT, Fri July 18, 2014

Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on Tuesday, September 9. The Boeing 777 is believed to have been shot down July 17 in an area of eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian rebels.

Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on Sunday, August 3.

A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on Saturday, August 2.

Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on Tuesday, July 22.

A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21.

Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21.

A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21.

Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21.

A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21.

An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20 as they work to locate the deceased.

A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20 to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies.

Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20.

People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20.

A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20.

Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19.

Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19.

A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19.

Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19 as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter.

A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19.

An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19.

Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19.

Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19.

A woman looks at wreckage on July 19.

Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18.

A woman walks through the debris field on July 18.

Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site.

Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18.

A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada.

A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18.

Coal miners search the crash site.

Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18.

People search for bodies of passengers on July 18.

A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18.

Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18.

People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17.

People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash.

Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border.

Fire engines arrive at the crash site.

A man stands next to wreckage.

Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine.

Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands.

A large piece of the plane lies on the ground.

Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site.

A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight.

Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia.

Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17.

A man inspects debris from the plane.

Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17.

A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17.

Wreckage burns in Ukraine.

A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner.

People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

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Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Andrew Kuchins: Jet's downing must awaken U.S., Europe to danger of Russia-Ukraine war

Focus should be on Ukraine's ability to defend sovereignty, not Russian sanctions, he says

He says sanctions over Russia's help to rebels will help Putin whip up nationalism

Editor's note: Andrew C. Kuchins is director and senior fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN) -- The shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine may finally force Washington and Europe to wake up to the danger of the conflict there escalating into full-blown war between Russia and Ukraine.

Former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told me Monday he was decidedly more pessimistic about the prospects for resolving this crisis than he was three months ago. As a veteran of international negotiations in 1999 on Kosovo and in 2003 on Iraq, he was perplexed as to why the international community was not trying harder to resolve the Ukraine crisis. Last weekend the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany, met with Iran on its nuclear issue but failed to use that opportunity to discuss Ukraine seriously.

The Ukraine conflict urgently requires the most resolute and determined efforts to de-escalate before we reach a point no return. Washington should be focusing policy attention on strengthening Ukraine's capacity to defend its sovereignty, economically and physically; instead it has a misplaced obsession with using economic sanctions to punish Russia. The Obama administration and its critics on the right, such as Republican Sen. Bob Corker, contend that such sanctions will change Russian behavior, but there is not a shred of evidence to suggest this strategy would be effective.

There are many reasons why a policy over-weighted on punishing Russia is a dubious strategy at best.

First, the Russian economy was in stagnation, if not recession, with capital flying out of the country at record rates before the annexation of Crimea in March. The Obama administration cannot credibly claim its policies have made a significant difference to the Russian economy. They only allow Vladimir Putin to blame the West for Russia's poor economy and deflect attention from the real culprit, his failed economic policy since returning to the presidency two years ago.

Second, Russia's political economy and psychology are far more suited to absorbing punishment than the West. Russian companies suffering from sanctions can likely expect government subsidies to compensate their losses. I doubt U.S. and European companies can expect the same. They will simply lose market share. What's more, a thousand years of history suggests the Russians are by far the most effective in punishing themselves.

Bill Clinton on MH17: 'It's awful'

Rep. Peter King: Putin 'largely responsible'

Biden: MH17 apparently shot down

Finally, if Russians perceive their punishment is inflicted by others, it is a powerful stimulant to national consolidation and a spur to inflict unimaginable punishment on others. Putin is an archetypal traditional Russian leader who aspires to making a historical imprint like Stalin and Ivan the Terrible. This is a bloody serious game he is playing, cynical and determined beyond what flabby American and European strategic thinking can or wants to comprehend.

He will not be deterred by sanctions. He has made a mockery of the G7 ultimatum in June that he cease and desist in Ukraine in 30 days or else. He has responded by sending more men and equipment across the border, with the predictable result that the "separatists" (the so-called Donetsk People's Republic is led by well-known Russian citizens) actions have escalated.

The only good news is that the Ukrainian government's military force has been extremely successful in destroying pro-Russian rebel strongholds over the past month. And herein lies the urgency of the problem. The rebel cause has been close to failing, with the defense of Luhansk and Donetsk being the endgame. Putin cannot allow that to happen as it could shatter his leadership position -- he will not allow it to happen, plain and simple. The Ukrainian government has every right to defend its sovereignty against this Russian-instigated insurgency.

There is no other solution but urgent diplomacy to de-escalate and to get international peacekeepers to the border region as quickly as possible. The stakes in allowing this war to go on are far too high to allow for anything else.