The point guard comparison - effectiveness of either Jose or JB at the point

Using data provided by nba.com on advanced statistics, I have managed to make careful observations on the effectiveness of several line-ups the Toronto Raptors showcased this past season (2011-2012). The purpose of my analysis is to use statistics in order to determine the more effective line-up - with either Jose or Jerryd Bayless as the PG.

There is no subjectivity involved in attempting this analysis, only facts, as presented by nba.com. However, I was inspired by a post comment from a different thread in which a user posted that Jose is that much better (see When could we contend for Mr. Nash thread)

The Toronto Raptors played a total of 43 different line-ups which do not include a line-up where Leandro Barbosa was showcased.

Parameters

- The statistics presented are per 48 minutes (points/48, assists/48, etc.)
- Offensive rating (Offrtg) is defined as points produced per 100 possessions
- Defensive rating (Defrtg) is therefore, points allowed per 100 possessions
- Net rating (Netrtg) is obtained by subtracting defrtg from offrtg, with a positive amount indicating better effectiveness as a line-up (in other words, point differential per 48 minutes)
- Rebound percentage (Reb%) is the percentage of available rebounds collected while on the floor

For the sake of effective comparison, I will only compare line-ups where the other four positions are constant. The only difference between the line-ups being compared is the presence or absence of Jose Calderon/Jerryd Bayless. Altogether there will be four line-ups for each point guard.

Other line-ups where either Jose or JB did not see floor time were excluded. The category in which the player sees an advantage over the other will be highlighted.

* First, the line-up that consists of DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson.

With Jose as the point guard: (played together in 15 games for a total of 93 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

97.5

28.4

12.4

49.7%

15.0

27.6%

19.6

48.6%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

108.2

100.7

7.5

With Jerryd Bayless as point guard: (played together in 6 games with a total of 49 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

98.9

26.4

10.8

51.3%

10.8

27.3%

15.7

52.6%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

113.4

101.4

12.1

The line-up in which Bayless is the point guard is more effective scoring the ball, but less effective on the defensive end. Overall, the net rating of JB’s line-up is higher than Calderon’s line-up by 4.6. This line-up also rebounds the ball better by 4%.

** Second, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Aaron Gray and James Johnson.(Aaron Gray replaces Amir at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 8 games totalling 90 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

94.4

26.4

8.0

45.4%

15.5

27.6%

12.3

43.9%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

103.4

105.9

(2.4)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 3 games totalling 25 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

92.2

23.0

21.1

48.6%

13.4

57.1%

17.3

56.8%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

102.2

90.3

11.9

Jerryd Bayless’ line-up is more effective defensively and rebounding but also turns the ball over at a higher rate while Jose’s line-up is slightly more effective scoring the ball. Jose’s line-up produces a higher rate of assists as well.

*** Third, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis and James Johnson.(Once again, a change at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 13 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

93.2

22.2

22.2

47.4%

25.8

28.6%

18.5

45.0%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

91.9

127.7

(35.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 17 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

70.6

16.9

36.7

47.6%

8.5

66.7%

16.9

59.3%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

74.3

101.4

(27.1)

Statistics show that both line-ups are not effective (Ed Davis effect). However, Jose’s line-up is more effective scoring the ball while Jerryd’s line-up is more effective defensively. Jose’s line-up average more assists per 48 while JB’s line-up rebounds better.

**** Next, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis. (no Andrea Bargnani for this line-up)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 14 games totalling 53 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

86.0

21.7

15.4

44.2%

10.0

27.3%

18.1

45.5%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

91.5

107.3

(15.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 4 games totalling 12 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%[/B]

76.0

20.0

20.0

38.1%

16.0

0.0%

12.0

60.0%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

95.1

110.9

(25.8)

Once again, both line-ups are not effective (Andrea Bargnani effect). However, this one is a landslide for Jose’s line-up, with exception to rebounding.

Overall

With exception to the last match-up, statistics show that a line-up with Jerryd Bayless as the point guard is more effective than a line-up with Jose Calderon as the point guard (better point differential). Although these statistics do not take into account situational match-ups, it is still a good indication on how well the team performs with either man as the quarterback. This analysis also includes a small sample size which can be deterrent to a more accurate conclusion.

Since these line-ups taken into account are more or less considered the “core group” of the Toronto Raptors moving forward, it is very refreshing to see the difference in statistics when the point guard switches.

- All four line-ups with Bayless as the point guard indicate higher rebounding percentage (not really a surprise)
- The offensive rating in 3 out of 4 match-ups favours well for Jose (not a surprise)
- More assists were generated in all 4 match-ups when Jose is the point guard (not a surprise)
- 3 out of 4 match-ups indicate better point differential in favour of Jerryd Bayless (this is a surprise)
- A line-up with Jose Calderon usually turns the ball less than JB’s similar line-up (no surprise here, it’s what Jose is known for)
- JB’s line-up shoots at a higher field goal percentage (ehh)
- Jose’s line-up gets to the free throw line at a higher rate (I’m not sure what this indicates in this situation, except perhaps that with Jose as PG, others are more confident and excited to attack the basket)
- Defensive ratings as well as 3 point percentage balance out to 2 match ups each (although JB’s line-up nearly had a 3rd victory)
- Ed Davis had a significant negative effect in these featured line-ups
- Andrea Bargnani, on the other hand, was very effective

The point differential in the first match-up really catches my attention, with the advantage going to Jerryd Bayless. Why? Because Toronto’s main “core guys” match-up well against opponents, whether it be Jose or JB at the point.

So, there it is. The match-up between Jerryd Bayless and Jose Calderon with similar line-ups. I hope this changes some people’s perception on Jerryd Bayless. He seems to be getting a lot of heat when actually, statistics show that his effect is rather positive on the line-up.

Props for taking the time to draw this up. I wish I could say that this changed my opinion of Bayless but now I'm reasoning that the sample size is just too small. However, in the same breath (recognizing how biased I'm being to Bayless), I'm embracing the stats about Davis and I'm liking him less and less.. They shouldn't alter my opinion of one guy and be disregarded as far as my opinion of another goes, but hey, the mind is a funny thing.
To sum up...
Still not a big fan of Bayless
Now, even less of a fan of Davis

I always had a sneaking suspicion this was the case, but now we can see the numbers back it up.

Unfortunately, this won't change anyones mind about Bayless.

lol, poor Joey

The only opinions that matter are Casey's and Colangelo's. Although we can never truly tell what they're thinking, they haven't given us any indication to believe they trust this team in Bayless' hands.

These stats definitely suffer from a small sample size ranking, and all sorts of potential biases.

Comparing 17 minutes of one lineup against 13 minutes of another lineup and drawing conclusions? Really?

Well, if that's the way the game is played: Solomon Alabi averaged 18.5 rebounds per 48 (over 122 minutes of play) and Dwight Howard averaged 18.2 rebounds (over 2070 minutes). So I guess that means that Solomon Alabi is a better rebounder than Dwight Howard ...

Also I am still weary of a player who has better numbers when his team loses than when they win.

I think that is the key point here. However I am all for keeping Bayless around for another year. I guess I see him more as a back-up 2 and insurance at the 1. A bit like Barbosa. In any season we'll need three guys who can play the point. I like Bayless over Forbes as that guy. $4.1 mil is steep at the moment, but the OP clarifies that it might not be that steep.

Nice work torch! i for one am a major Bayless fan, but Jose brings way more to the table in terms of leadership at this point. Ed Davis needs to step it up b/c he is clearly the odd man out with the log jam at the 4..

These stats definitely suffer from a small sample size ranking, and all sorts of potential biases.

Comparing 17 minutes of one lineup against 13 minutes of another lineup and drawing conclusions? Really?

Well, if that's the way the game is played: Solomon Alabi averaged 18.5 rebounds per 48 (over 122 minutes of play) and Dwight Howard averaged 18.2 rebounds (over 2070 minutes). So I guess that means that Solomon Alabi is a better rebounder than Dwight Howard ...

The sample sizes are definitely very small, but I had also mentioned that in the post. However, the object of the post was to analyze which point guard worked better with similar line-ups. Although I agree that the sample sizes are not large enough to draw up a definitive conclusion, I mentioned that it was still somewhat a good indication on what each other brought to the forefront.

I would have loved to have worked with better numbers, but I simply presented what was.

For the object of my analysis, I believe I used the data that best settles my curiosity.

I simply offered a fresh take on what otherwise was, a landslide debate in favour of Jose.

Last edited by torch19; Thu May 17th, 2012 at 09:53 AM.

“I don’t create controversies. They’re there long before I open my mouth. I just bring them to your attention.”

The sample sizes are definitely very small, but I had also mentioned that in the post. However, the object of the post was to analyze which point guard worked better with similar line-ups. Although I agree that the sample sizes are not large enough to draw up a definitive conclusion, I mentioned that it was still somewhat a good indication on what each other brought to the forefront.

I would have loved to have worked with better numbers, but I simply presented what was.

For the object of my analysis, I believe I used the data that best settles my curiosity.

I simply offered a fresh take on what otherwise was, a landslide debate in favour of Jose.

Big props for doing this. If nothing else it at least forces folks to slow down a touch and maybe think a little longer. As I have said in other threads, I have not been a big Bayless fan, partially because of the "eye test" at Matt referred to it. But I still maintain that Bayless was getting better grades at the "eye test" at the end of his run this season. Almost as if Casey sat him down and said "Look Jerryd. this is what I need you to do if you want to have a future with this team."

Once again, thanks for the work. It can only help the ongoing discussion.

Hater's have to hate

torch19 wrote:

Using data provided by nba.com on advanced statistics, I have managed to make careful observations on the effectiveness of several line-ups the Toronto Raptors showcased this past season (2011-2012). The purpose of my analysis is to use statistics in order to determine the more effective line-up - with either Jose or Jerryd Bayless as the PG.

There is no subjectivity involved in attempting this analysis, only facts, as presented by nba.com. However, I was inspired by a post comment from a different thread in which a user posted that Jose is that much better (see When could we contend for Mr. Nash thread)

The Toronto Raptors played a total of 43 different line-ups which do not include a line-up where Leandro Barbosa was showcased.

Parameters

- The statistics presented are per 48 minutes (points/48, assists/48, etc.)
- Offensive rating (Offrtg) is defined as points produced per 100 possessions
- Defensive rating (Defrtg) is therefore, points allowed per 100 possessions
- Net rating (Netrtg) is obtained by subtracting defrtg from offrtg, with a positive amount indicating better effectiveness as a line-up (in other words, point differential per 48 minutes)
- Rebound percentage (Reb%) is the percentage of available rebounds collected while on the floor

For the sake of effective comparison, I will only compare line-ups where the other four positions are constant. The only difference between the line-ups being compared is the presence or absence of Jose Calderon/Jerryd Bayless. Altogether there will be four line-ups for each point guard.

Other line-ups where either Jose or JB did not see floor time were excluded. The category in which the player sees an advantage over the other will be highlighted.

* First, the line-up that consists of DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Andrea Bargnani and Amir Johnson.

With Jose as the point guard: (played together in 15 games for a total of 93 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

97.5

28.4

12.4

49.7%

15.0

27.6%

19.6

48.6%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

108.2

100.7

7.5

With Jerryd Bayless as point guard: (played together in 6 games with a total of 49 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

98.9

26.4

10.8

51.3%

10.8

27.3%

15.7

52.6%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

113.4

101.4

12.1

The line-up in which Bayless is the point guard is more effective scoring the ball, but less effective on the defensive end. Overall, the net rating of JB’s line-up is higher than Calderon’s line-up by 4.6. This line-up also rebounds the ball better by 4%.

** Second, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Aaron Gray and James Johnson.(Aaron Gray replaces Amir at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 8 games totalling 90 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

94.4

26.4

8.0

45.4%

15.5

27.6%

12.3

43.9%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

103.4

105.9

(2.4)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 3 games totalling 25 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

92.2

23.0

21.1

48.6%

13.4

57.1%

17.3

56.8%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

102.2

90.3

11.9

Jerryd Bayless’ line-up is more effective defensively and rebounding but also turns the ball over at a higher rate while Jose’s line-up is slightly more effective scoring the ball. JB’s line-up produces a higher rate of assists as well.

*** Third, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis and James Johnson.(Once again, a change at the 5 spot)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 13 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

93.2

22.2

22.2

47.4%

25.8

28.6%

18.5

45.0%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

91.9

127.7

(35.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 5 games totalling 17 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

70.6

16.9

36.7

47.6%

8.5

66.7%

16.9

59.3%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

74.3

101.4

(27.1)

Statistics show that both line-ups are not effective (Ed Davis effect). However, Jose’s line-up is more effective scoring the ball while Jerryd’s line-up is more effective defensively. Jose’s line-up average more assists per 48 while JB’s line-up rebounds better.

**** Next, the line-up which features DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Amir Johnson and Ed Davis. (no Andrea Bargnani for this line-up)

With Jose Calderon as the point guard: (played together in 14 games totalling 53 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%

86.0

21.7

15.4

44.2%

10.0

27.3%

18.1

45.5%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

91.5

107.3

(15.8)

With Jerryd Bayless as the point guard: (played together in 4 games totalling 12 mins)

Pts

Ast

TO

FG%

3PA

3P%

FTA

Reb%[/B]

76.0

20.0

20.0

38.1%

16.0

0.0%

12.0

60.0%

Offrtg

Defrtg

Netrtg

95.1

110.9

(25.8)

Once again, both line-ups are not effective (Andrea Bargnani effect). However, this one is a landslide for Jose’s line-up, with exception to rebounding.

Overall

With exception to the last match-up, statistics show that a line-up with Jerryd Bayless as the point guard is more effective than a line-up with Jose Calderon as the point guard (better point differential). Although these statistics do not take into account situational match-ups, it is still a good indication on how well the team performs with either man as the quarterback. This analysis also includes a small sample size which can be deterrent to a more accurate conclusion.

Since these line-ups taken into account are more or less considered the “core group” of the Toronto Raptors moving forward, it is very refreshing to see the difference in statistics when the point guard switches.

- All four line-ups with Bayless as the point guard indicate higher rebounding percentage (not really a surprise)
- The offensive rating in 3 out of 4 match-ups favours well for Jose (not a surprise)
- More assists were generated 3 out of 4 match-ups when Jose is the point guard (not a surprise)
- 3 out of 4 match-ups indicate better point differential in favour of Jerryd Bayless (this is a surprise)
- A line-up with Jose Calderon usually turns the ball less than JB’s similar line-up (no surprise here, it’s what Jose is known for)
- JB’s line-up shoots at a higher field goal percentage (ehh)
- Jose’s line-up gets to the free throw line at a higher rate (I’m not sure what this indicates in this situation, except perhaps that with Jose as PG, others are more confident and excited to attack the basket)
- Defensive ratings as well as 3 point percentage balance out to 2 match ups each (although JB’s line-up nearly had a 3rd victory)
- Ed Davis had a significant negative effect in these featured line-ups
- Andrea Bargnani, on the other hand, was very effective

The point differential in the first match-up really catches my attention, with the advantage going to Jerryd Bayless. Why? Because Toronto’s main “core guys” match-up well against opponents, whether it be Jose or JB at the point.

So, there it is. The match-up between Jerryd Bayless and Jose Calderon with similar line-ups. I hope this changes some people’s perception on Jerryd Bayless. He seems to be getting a lot of heat when actually, statistics show that his effect is rather positive on the line-up.

I've said this before and I will say it again, people on these forums hate on Jerryd Bayless WAY too much. All the guy does is average 18/5/3 every time he starts and people just can't stop hating. They say things like "The offense doesn't run as smooth ... He doesn't get enough people involved ... " well maybe if he had the time to play at that position consistently those things would improve, frankly I think the offense runs just fine with him there.

Jose calderon's trade value is at a high right now. We should look to trade him (for the right deal) to add another piece, and have Jerryd Bayless start. I said this at the beginning of last year too, and my opinion hasn't changed.

Much credit for the post. That is a lot of work and very interesting findings.

Stats are a useful tool but I don't think they tell the whole story. This idea was talked about in the Everything Bayless so I don't want to go in to it again.

Unfortunately Bayless doesn't pass the 'eye' test for me - and I know that is extremely subjective.

Also I am still weary of a player who has better numbers when his team loses than when they win.

One thing that we must consider is that the majority of the time when Bayless would be starting is when Jose would be injured. Maybe if Jose wasn't injured and coming off the bench, making our second unit more potent, Bayless would have better stats when the team wins than otherwise. But when you take one of our best offensive players out of the mix all together, then someone has to make up the slack. Bayless on the floor should be a top 3 option everytime. I don't mind him scoring, if it means he is picking up the slack to make up for injuries (which is the only time he would start).

Great job on the stats! I'm not going to dive into the old debate, because I have said enough about the subject.

I think at this point it comes down to a preference of what style of game you like. I enjoy watching Jose run the offence because there is more ball movement. The Raps play very differently with each guy playing point guard. That does not show up in stat lines. Bayless' game not my preferred style. It's all opinion based.

There have always been arguments over what players are better, when really its mostly preference.

It's basically the Gretzky vs Lemieux debate. Gretzky has the records, but Lemieux didn't have a chance to play as long. Alas this not a hockey forum, but holds true in this situation.

Maybe Bayless is more effective than I give credit. I just don't enjoy watching him play the point.

Bayless & Calderon - Duelling PG's in Raptorland (again ? )

I sometimes wonder how Jose feels about all these Contenders to his throne - or maybe that should be Pretenders.

I have to admit - I'm not a big fan of Bayless. Am I biased, and ignoring the stats - limited as they are. Or am I simply taking into account all the variables that seem to go with Bayless, and his quest to become our official Starting PG.

The concerns/observations I have, could include:

Why does Jarryd play better when he starts. Is that petulance, or just a simple fact?

Why does Bayless feel he's a Starter (at this juncture), yet hasn't really been deserving of that position? Or more to the point, hasn't quite proven he has that quality?

Granted, Jose has had his injuries over time (too much playing time in my mind - including overseas), yet I'm concerned about JB's ability to maintain himself at the level of minutes Calderon has had?

Why do I feel our Offense runs smoother with JC, even though the limited stats give credibility to Bayless?

Why do I feel Jose is a better team & veteran presence? Or will in time, Jarryd become such a player?

On another note (to which these stats bring out), they seem to indicate some obvious factors/questions:

We need a real Center

What happened to Ed Davis? I know some wondered why he didn't get more court time, but these stats seem to back how (or why) Casey allotted them as such.

And lastly - and yes they are limited stats - it gave a little up to Andrea, who really gets little respect.