ARG in Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

A heartburn inspiring poll for Democrats to add to the post-debate pile, The Hill:

[I]n Colorado, likely voters went for Romney 50 to 46 over Obama, in ARG’s poll. Romney soundly outpaced Obama among female voters in the state, taking 51 percent support against Obama at 45.

Obama led by 3 in Colorado heading into last week’s debate at the University of Denver, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. The candidates are now locked at 47, according to the RCP average.

Ohio and Colorado are two of the 12 states President Bush won in 2004 that Obama took in 2008. These 12 battleground states will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

The last American Research Group poll of Colorado in mid-September found Barack Obama ahead of Mitt Romney by two points–if anything a bit narrower lead for Obama than other polls at the time, though the swing in raw numerical terms since last Wednesday’s tough debate for Obama in Denver, is consistent with most polling. The best description of polling we’ve seen in the days since the debate is “volatile”–full of more surprises than what you’d responsibly call trends. Each poll needs to be checked against both its own history, and other contemporary polls, to achieve something you can consider a full picture.

Particularly noteworthy in this, and other post-debate polls we’ve seen is a loss of Obama’s support among women voters. We’re not in a position to fully explain that change, but given the underlying issues, we still think Obama is in a better position to win women voters back before Election Day than Romney is to make his post-debate bounce last a whole month. This is especially true if Obama manages to strike back on a host of issues he inexplicably forgot, left on the table, or was too afraid of appearing combative to mention–the arguments against Romney that had put Obama into an increasingly decisive lead before the debate.

But if you’re a Democrat, and aren’t worried about this turn of events, you aren’t paying attention.

It won’t be close. Nationally, Obama carried women by 13% in 2008. If all Obama gets is a split, he is toast. Obama better be ready to come out fighting on women’s issues in the town hall debate. There is plenty grist for the mill.

Sometimes it disconnects on female, others on Democrat, others on age.

The most interesting one came tonight, from sometime the robocall rushed through as “data services.” It asked if I planned to vote early or on election day. When I responded election day, it went away.”

More delusional perhaps than President Obama for thinking Congressional Republicans would give him the time of day, nevermind work to mend the rift caused by Karl Rove and the ever-accelerating shift to the right of the GOP.