Orientation

Public health locally is great. We have almost no cases in Jackson County.

Nationally, we have states opening up where infection and death rates are still high.

Economic disruption is likely to be long and damaging to Ashland’s current businesses.

Federal programs are unlikely to save many local businesses.

The state, county and city governments are unlikely to have the funds or bandwidth to create solutions.

Long-term recovery will look different than what we had in February and it will fall to the community leaders to design and build what’ll be next.

Observations

PublicHealth

Locally, we have had no new cases in days.

According to someone on staff last night, only one patient left at Asante Ashland, the dedicated Covid-19 facility. That patient is in recovery after 3 weeks on a ventilator.

Study suggests 3 scenarios, worst case is 18-24 months of ongoing, rolling lockdowns to balance infections and hospital capacity. Best case is a slow burn of cases without lockdowns until 6-70% of the population has had the virus.

First, the goal is to flatten the curve so hospitals can cope, not take it to zero so no one is exposed to the virus. In fact, we may need to find ways to expose segments of the society so we can reach 60-70% exposure and manage case loads by herd immunity rather than social distancing.

The media and government are rightfully focusing us on Covid-19 risk management, but we must remember that all of the other risks still exist. All death risks and likelihoods for Americans. Covid is worse than a normal flu, but far lower than heart disease and cancers. We need to get serious about diet and exercise… lock people out of their cars so they cannot use drive through fast food lanes?

Fed - considerable uncertainty and ambiguity over the next year. Sources, virus and treatments, damage to consumer confidence, habits and disposable income, damage to small and medium businesses that create so many jobs. https://youtu.be/Ezx4a6bIppk

Deflation - caused by low demand and income. Income tax receipts are lower if employment and incomes drop. Interest rates can increase demand, but only if people are employed and optimistic. A primer on deflation by the SF Fed.