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A Mathematical Approach to History

Peter Turchin, professor of ecology & evolutionary biology, in his office in the Torrey Life Sciences building. (Sheila Foran/UConn Photo)

Peter Turchin, professor of ecology & evolutionary biology, in his office in the Torrey Life Sciences building. (Sheila Foran/UConn Photo)[/caption]Can math be used to better understand history?

UConn biology professor Peter Turchin is doing just that, through complex mathematical algorithms. He spoke about his work in an Academic Minute on PBS station WAMC.

Is history just “one damned thing after another”? If not, if there are general principles shaping the broad patterns of history, we should be able to capture them with mathematical models. But would you believe that a mathematical model can predict, with startling accuracy, where and when major civilizations arose?

Before I embarked on my most recent project, I might not have thought so either. But recently, my colleagues and I have developed just such a model. We used a computer simulation to reconstruct the time period between 1500 BC and 1500 AD in the Old World – Africa, Europe, and Asia.

We built the model under the premise that large, cohesive states with large populations arise from intense competition between smaller societies, usually in the form of warfare. The strength of such competition depended generally on the development of technology, like metal weaponry, chariots, and cavalry; and on the geographic landscape. We tested our model against the actual historical record, and it was able to predict with excellent accuracy the rise and fall of such great empires as those in Mesopotamia, Egypt, China and India.

These types of models are part of a new field of science my colleagues and I call Cliodynamics, after the Greek muse of history. We use the principles of cultural evolution and complexity science to take real-world data and make specific predictions about history that can be rigorously tested using the scientific method. We can even use math to make sense of such events as the recent U.S. government shutdown.

Although we can’t always predict everything about the future, our research shows that there are general and predictable mechanisms at work shaping the history of our world.

This talk was first aired on WAMC, the PBS station in Albany, N.Y., as an Academic Minute, and was also hosted by Inside Higher Education. The Academic Minute features researchers from colleges and universities around the world. Thanks to WAMC for the station’s permission to post these spots.

Join us for a talk by Gina Barreca,2018 UCONN BOARD OF TRUSTEESDISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF ENGLISH

All great works of fiction, poetry and dramaâas well as texts forming mythologies, religions, national epics to heroic sagasâhave loneliness at the heart of their narrative. From Persephone to Peter Pan, from âFrankensteinâ to âFrozen,â the stories we pass along are saturated with unwilling isolation.âOnly around half of Americans say they have meaningful, daily face-to-face social interactions,â according to a 2017 study. A former U.S. Surgeon General argues that âWe live in the most technologically connected age in the history of civilization, yet rates of loneliness have doubled since the 1980s.â We need more than social media. We need social contact. We need community. How can we break through the loneliness barrier? Being alone when in need of companionship is more than sad; itâs an epidemic.Chronic loneliness is as bad for your health as smoking 15 cigarettes per day. We need to change our national story and, often, our personal ones as well.Even the concept of the âlone wolfâ is a myth. Wolves hunt in packs.

Reception to follow.

For more information about this event, or if you are an individual who requires special accommodation to participate, please contact the CLAS Deanâs Office at (860) 486-2713.

A liberal arts and sciences degree prepares students with the tools they need to excel across a wide range of careers. Given the number of options available to you, it can be overwhelming to narrow down career choices. Attending CLAS Career Night will provide you exposure to career opportunities for CLAS students.

This semesterâs focus will be on research-based careers. During this event you will engage with CLAS alumni, learn about various occupations, and gain insight about how to best prepare for your future career.

The McNair Scholars Program and the Office of Undergraduate Research invite you to join us for a brown bag research seminar.

Birds, Bacteria, and Bioinformatics: Why Evolutionary Biology is the Best

Sarah Hird, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Molecular and Cell Biology

This series is open to all undergraduate and graduate students, and is designed especially for students conducting (or interested in conducting) STEM research. These seminars are opportunities to learn about research being pursued around campus, to talk with faculty about their path into research, and to ask questions about getting involved in research.

About CLAS

The College of Liberal Arts and Sciences is the academic core of learning and research at UConn. We are committed to the full spectrum of academics across the sciences, social sciences, and humanities. We give students a liberal arts and sciences education that empowers them with broad knowledge, transferable skills, and an ability to think critically about important issues across a variety of disciplines.