Will Pfeifer: This movie man's Oscar predictions

I’ve got a theory that seeing all the nominated movies will hurt your ability to pick the Oscar winners, because you’ll be emotionally involved and want to pick your favorites.

To make objective, informed and correct predictions, my theory says, don’t watch any of the movies. Instead, focus on what counts: previous picks, industry buzz and academy trends.

Will Pfeifer

I’ve got a theory that seeing all the nominated movies will hurt your ability to pick the Oscar winners, because you’ll be emotionally involved and want to pick your favorites.
To make objective, informed and correct predictions, my theory says, don’t watch any of the movies. Instead, focus on what counts: previous picks, industry buzz and academy trends.

This year, I’m putting that theory into practice. I’ve seen a few nominees, but I definitely haven’t seen all of them.

The winners will be revealed Sunday in a ceremony starting at 7 on ABC and probably lasting well into the night.

BEST PICTURE

The nominees:
“Atonement”
“Juno”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country for Old Men” (Will’s pick)
“There Will Be Blood”

The argument: Though Oscar loves the British, no one saw “Atonement.” “Juno” is a surprising hit, but it has too much of an indie film feel for the academy to give it the top prize. “There Will Be Blood” is an amazing achievement, but it’s built around a brilliant performance that’s going to get a statue of its own. And though “Michael Clayton” is the sort of serious, star-powered drama Oscar normally can’t wait to give a statue to, there’s not much buzz. That leaves “No Country for Old Men,” which has already won a slew of critics’ awards and seems to be regarded as THE movie of 2007.

BEST ACTOR

The nominees:

George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood” (Will’s pick)
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd”
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”

The argument: Fine actors one and all, but there’s one performance this year that stands apart from the others. It’s weird, it’s wild, and it’s brilliant. It’s the sort of thing people will be talking about decades from now. Watch out for a riot if Daniel Day-Lewis doesn’t win, among critics, actors and maybe even fellow nominees.

The argument: This is a tricky one. Forget Blanchett, Cotillard and Linney — it’s a two-person race. All the buzz is with Page, who definitely became a star playing the pregnant teen in “Juno.” But the academy is nothing if not stodgy, and might not want to give one of the biggest awards to such a young actress giving such a quirky performance. Christie, on the other hand, has been acting for decades. Plus, she plays a woman with Alzheimer’s. Now that’s a combination the academy can reward.

The argument: Though there’s a slim possibility of Holbrook nabbing a career reward Oscar, a la Paul Newman in “The Color of Money,” I think this statue is going to go to the cold-blooded killer with the air hammer. “No Country for Old Men” is full of great performances large and small, but whenever Bardem’s Anton Chigurh enters the scene, all eyes are on him. Plus, like the movie, he’s already won a ton of critics’ awards — along with a Golden Globe and a Screen Actors Guild Award.

The argument: Another tough category. Dee won the Screen Actors Guild Award, which, like the Oscar, is voted on by fellow actors. On the other hand, Ryan has generated a lot of buzz for the sort of edgy performance that usually gets honored in this category. Can’t decide, can’t decide ...

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees:

Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Jason Reitman for “Juno”
Tony Gilroy for “Michael Clayton”
Joel and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men” (Will’s pick)
Paul Thomas Anderson for “There Will Be Blood”

The argument: The Coens have been directing brilliant movies for more than 20 years. It’s high time the academy awarded them the top trophy, and this year it finally will.

The argument: Remember all those times I said the indie buzz around “Juno” would hurt its chances? In this category, it’s going to be a huge help. The voters can’t wait to see hip, clever screenwriter Diablo Cody take the stage and make a hip, clever acceptance speech.

ORIGINAL SONG

The nominees:

“Falling Slowly” from “Once” - Will’s pick
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”
“So Close” from “Enchanted”
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”

The argument: Though you can never underestimate the Disney juggernaut (three nominees in one category!), I’m betting those “Enchanted” tunes are going to cancel each other out, leaving a clear path for the song from “Once” to take the trophy.

TIE-BREAKER

The writers' strike is over, and those scribes are dying to bang away at their keyboards — which means a long night for the rest of us. I’m guessing 3 hours and 38 minutes.

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