A Mexican gold producer. Recently had a little guidance reduction on concerns of some of the costs. A pretty steady, staid producer of 130,000 ounces. The issue is, where is the next leg of growth. They have a couple of big projects, one in Canada and one in Mexico. Feels they have enough in terms of small expansions to bring on another small project, until they can get their Canadian project permitted and financed. He likes this, because he thought the street was over punitive on the name.

Hold or Sell?This has had a nice move. If you are underweight the whole gold complex you might want to keep it. If you are a trader, you have had a spectacular move in the last 4 months, you might want to take your initial capital out.

Like a lot of golds, this has recovered somewhat. Likes the company and management, but exited all of his golds about 3 years ago. They have 3 different Mexican mines as well as a project in Northern Ontario. If you like gold exposure, it is a decent play. They won’t hurt you or surprise you very much. Relatively cheap with an asset value of $4. It will pull back if the price of gold pulls back.

Sold his holdings a couple of years ago. It’s mostly in Mexico with a small part in Northern Ontario, which has been pushed out to 2018-2019. Good operators, but just didn’t like the macro view. Had some cost overruns a couple of times. Looks like there is value and it should be trading at $2.50-$3 to make it equal to the others, but there has been 2 years of lagging valuations. Not terrible, but it goes sideways and will only move up after seniors move and if gold went to $1400-$1500.

He sees this as fairly good implementers, but doesn’t see any catalyst other than the gold price to take the stock higher. They have certainly had successes in their past life. He wouldn’t be in the mood to buy this one today.

Like all gold stocks, this has been absolutely pummeled. Gold stocks are very undervalued relative to gold bullion. This stock is in a base pattern. From a seasonal perspective, we are coming up to the end of the gold period for stocks, September 25. Gold and gold stocks have a historic pattern of underperforming in October.

Had a miss in a quarter which was weather related about a year ago. The stock is cheap, but it has never really recovered. Their cash costs are around $750 an ounce and they’re all in costs are around $1000-$1050. The balance sheet is fine, but they have to spend money on the growth. It is trading something like $0.40 on the dollar on asset value, so it is stupidly cheap. You should probably do something senior 1st, and once that has moved, then you could go and look at this one.

(A Top Pick July 21/14. Down 71.05%.) Missed one quarter about a year ago because of heavy rains in the rainy season in Mexico. Made it up the next quarter and has reported good results ever since with a bunch of new drilling, but nobody cares. It was a mistake to pick a gold a year ago.

(A Top Pick May 30/14. Down 56.22%.) This has the value driver that he focuses the most on, free cash flow from the El Castile and La Colorada mines in Mexico. A significant portion of their value lies in 3 development assets, which were going to get funded out of the free cash flow from Mexico. At the current gold price, their ability to fund those assets is now called into question. Because of this, investors have exited. He sees value here, and if his gold price forecasting comes to pass this company can regain its lost performance.

Its gold mines are all in Mexico. Had a rainy season last fall and missed a quarter, the stock got hit and never really recovered. Hasn’t added to his holdings, but given the small amount of holding and the price that it is at, he has left it. If his outlook for gold got better, he would probably add to it. This has everything you would look for in a gold mine with $700 costs, growing production, cash flow and a good balance sheet.

Had been buying before Christmas when it dipped on tax loss selling. Just reported a record 4th quarter production. Still cheap at under $3. Given that the outlook in gold has changed so much, you should see NAV’s in the $5.50-$6 range. He thinks the stock is worth $4 in the current environment. They are quite profitable at the current gold price level.

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