AI Seen as Greater Job Threat Than Immigration, Offshoring

Story Highlights

58% in U.S. say new technology is the greater threat to jobs

23% of U.S. workers worry they may lose their jobs to technology

12% of workers worry they may lose their jobs to immigration

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans (58%) say technology poses a greater threat to jobs in the U.S. over the next decade, while 42% see immigration and offshoring as the greater threat. Republicans, who see immigration and offshoring as roughly an equal threat as technology, are the only subgroup of Americans not to see technology as a greater threat.

Americans' Perceptions of Threats to Jobs Over the Next Decade

Which of the following do you believe is a greater threat to jobs in the U.S. in the next 10 years: job loss due to immigration and offshoring, that is jobs or companies moving overseas, or job loss due to new technology, automation, robots, or artificial intelligence?

The survey asked Americans to choose which they thought was the greater threat to U.S. jobs over the next decade, immigration and offshoring or new technology, automation, robots, or artificial intelligence. The question defined offshoring as jobs or companies moving overseas.

Although majorities across nearly all subgroups agree that new technology poses a greater risk to their jobs than immigration and offshoring does, Republicans consider the threat posed by technology (52%) to be roughly equal to that of immigration and offshoring (48%). Republicans' perceptions contrast sharply with Democrats', whose views strongly tilt toward believing new technology is the greater threat to jobs (67%) than is immigration and offshoring (33%).

U.S. Workers Twice as Likely to Worry About Losing Job to AI Than to Immigration

U.S. workers as well see a greater threat from new technology than from immigration and offshoring. Almost one in four American workers say they are very or somewhat worried about losing their own jobs to new technology, nearly twice as many as the 12% who say the same about immigration and offshoring. Levels of worry about these specific threats to American workers' jobs are higher than the 8% of U.S. adults who worry about being laid off in the next 12 months, in general.

American Workers' Worry About Job Loss to New Technology vs. Immigration

How worried are you about your job being eliminated as a result of new technology, automation, robots, or artificial intelligence?
How worried are you about an immigrant, that is, someone from another country taking your job, or are you not worried at all?
(Respondents who said they were somewhat or very worried)*

New technology worry

Immigration worry

Technology minus immigration

%

%

pct. pts.

U.S. workers

23

12

11

Age

18-35

25

13

12

36-50

21

8

13

51-65

27

15

12

Education

Less than a bachelor's degree

28

15

13

Bachelor's degree or higher

15

7

8

Job type

White collar

19

9

10

Blue collar

26

17

9

Political party affiliation

Republican

19

17

2

Independent

27

13

14

Democrat

23

9

14

*Among employed Americans

NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY/GALLUP SURVEY, SEPT. 15-OCT. 10, 2017

For the most part, American workers' fear of losing their jobs to new technology versus to immigrants varies little by subgroup. However, the key exception is Republican workers, who worry about the two threats to their own jobs roughly equally -- 19% for new technology versus 17% for immigration. Among Democratic workers, nearly a quarter (23%) worry about losing their jobs to new technology compared with 9% who worry about the threat to their personal jobs posed by immigration.

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Bottom Line

Americans largely perceive new technology as a greater threat to jobs in the U.S. over the next decade than immigration and offshoring. This view is supported by a recent Oxford study of the potential impact of the adoption of AI on the U.S. job market, which suggests as many as 47% of jobs are potentially at risk of elimination from this new technology. In contrast, estimates of the cost in American jobs from immigration and offshoring vary widely, with some reports suggesting these may create more jobs than they eliminate.

The risk posed by new technology to American jobs has been given little public attention by President Donald Trump's administration. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin recently said that there was no need to worry about AI displacing American workers for a half century or more. Trump has been much more focused on the impact of immigration, based on the contention that immigrants take jobs away from Americans.

Whether the Trump administration is focused on the impact of AI on jobs, many others see it as particularly pressing. Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) say the adoption of AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates.

Survey Methods

Results for the Northeastern University-Gallup survey on artificial intelligence are based on surveys conducted by mail from Sept. 15 to Oct. 10, 2017, with a random sample of 3,297 U.S. adults aged 18 and older. The survey package included an English and a Spanish survey to provide respondents with the flexibility to reply in their preferred language.

Gallup selected the sample of U.S. residents using address-based sampling (ABS), a sampling technique used to select households from a list of all households on file with the United States Postal Service (USPS). Gallup chooses respondents within the household at random based on which household member would have the next birthday. Gallup used a series of postcard reminders to encourage participation in the survey.

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About one in four working Americans worry about losing their jobs to artificial intelligence. Americans who say AI will result in net job loss expect the construction and manufacturing industries to be hardest hit.