Poll Position

The new issue of National Review carries my article on political polls:

Whatever the causes of the blindsiding, the plain fact is that polling is getting harder, especially at the local level, and the supposed aberrations could become routine. Pollsters are scrambling to keep up with changes in technology and behavior that have rendered traditional survey methods obsolete. “We’re facing serious challenges,” says Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center. Steve Mitchell, a longtime pollster in Michigan, is more dramatic: “I’m not sure I’ll be able to do this for more than two or three more election cycles,” he says. “We could be watching the death of polling.”