The Hill's Morning Report — Presented by T-Mobile — The political currents that will drive the shutdown showdown

Welcome to The Hill’s Morning Report and happy Friday! Our newsletter gets you up to speed on the most important developments in politics and policy, plus trends to watch, co-created by Jonathan Easley and Alexis Simendinger. (CLICK HERE to subscribe!) On Twitter, find us at @joneasley and @asimendinger.

A Senate bill has allocated $1.6 billion for border security, and Democrats say the president won’t see another dime.

The politics of the funding fight are complicated by the fact that the physical border wall has become symbolic for both sides, either as an expression of opposition or support for a polarizing president. The factions have two weeks now to hash out differences and avoid a shutdown over the holidays.

>House Republicans: GOP members of the House include some of Trump’s most loyal supporters and there is enormous pressure on them to get as much money for the border wall as possible before the end of the year, as Democrats take over in January. It’s unlikely they’ll obtain the full $5 billion, but one offer out there would allocate $2.5 billion for barriers and border security for 2019 and 2020. Will that be enough to satisfy Trump?

“It can only be used for fencing, using technology currently deployed at the border and only where the experts say fencing is appropriate and makes sense as a security feature … If President Trump wants to throw a temper tantrum and shuts down the government over Christmas over the wall, that’s his decision. But there are two sensible options on the table to avoid one.” – Schumer

>The White House perspective: One way or another, Trump is committed to getting a barrier built that stretches nearly the entirety of the U.S.-Mexico border. The president is entering a reelection cycle and needs to be able to tell his supporters that he’s on his way to accomplishing his premier campaign promise.

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Manafort has been found guilty on a range of charges pertaining to his personal business and foreign lobbying work. He had reached a plea deal with Mueller’s team, but federal prosecutors said last week they intended to offer a “detailed” account of how Manafort had committed new crimes by lying to investigators.

Trump has not ruled out a pardon for Manafort.

The memo could also provide details about the special counsel’s broader investigation, as was the case with Wednesday’s sentencing memo for Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

A separate filing on former Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s cooperation with the special counsel is also expected Friday.

Comey agreed to testify if Republicans make his testimony public within 24 hours. It may be the last time Republicans are able to drag a major witness in to testify, as Democrats gain control of the House next month (The Hill).

WHITE HOUSE & ADMINISTRATION: China trade: As if the U.S.-China relationship were not enough of a rollercoaster, the arrest and detention in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, a top executive with Chinese tech company Huawei and the daughter of the company’s billionaire founder, scrambled calculations about how much cooperation on trade the Trump administration can expect from Beijing in the near term.

> Reuters: Volatile market trading early on Thursday followed news of Meng’s arrest, which fanned fears of new U.S.-China tensions over trade.

The tech executive was detained in Canada at the request of the U.S. Justice Department. White House national security adviser John Bolton said Thursday he had advance knowledge of Meng’s arrest this week, but he said he was uncertain Trump knew about it while negotiating with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Saturday. Xi was apparently not told of the impending action during the dinner discussion (The New York Times). China on Thursday called for her release.

North American Free Trade Agreement: Republicans in Congress are warning Trump not to withdraw from NAFTA as he attempts to secure ratification of a 2018 version of the 1994 agreement with Canada and Mexico. The president says he’ll pull the United States out of NAFTA in short order, but lawmakers question the administration’s authority to act without legislative buy-in (The Hill).

Punish Saudi Arabia?: Trump is opposed to any punitive action by Congress aimed at the Saudi royal family. Yet, some GOP senators remain determined to take a stand against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, accused of complicity in the killing of Saudi journalist and critic Jamal Khashoggi. Senators are primed for a clash with the White House next week, including over war powers and the ongoing U.S.-backed Saudi conflict in Yemen (The Hill).

Coal: The Environmental Protection Agency said Thursday it plans to reverse a rule that would have forced new U.S. coal plants to install technology to capture their carbon dioxide emissions. Acting EPA administrator Andrew Wheeler said an Obama-era rule rendered infeasible the costs of the technology for new coal plants (The Washington Post).

Harris defeated McCready by 905 votes on Nov. 6, but the state’s Board of Elections has refused to certify the results after two people claimed they were paid by a Republican operative to collect absentee ballots from voters.

“For all these chairmen who went out there traveling the country and busting their behinds to get Democrats elected … why every time something’s established and we start doing well in the system, they want to change the rules?” – Richmond

Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, discusses the need for a U.S. cyber doctrine to protect against cyberattacks, at 10:30 a.m. during an event hosted by The Center for a New American Security in Washington.

> Tension in Europe: The Eiffel Tower will close on Saturday as French authorities prepare for another day of protests over taxes and France’s economy (CBS News) ... Meanwhile, Germany’s Christian Democratic Party are voting today on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor (The New York Times).

> Tax overhaul fallout: The removal of an alimony deduction from the GOP’s tax overhaul could create a year-end rush on divorce deals (USA Today).

> Kushner family business: A Kushner family beachfront strip in New Jersey is eligible for government tax perks intended for poor areas. Opportunity zones in the 2017 tax law are supposed to attract investment to low-income communities, but some of the qualifying neighborhoods are more posh than poverty-stricken (Bloomberg Businessweek investigation).

> Exiting Congress: R Street published an illuminating trove of interviews and analysis from current and former lawmakers about their decisions to leave Congress, which saw a surge of exits this session. The findings and recommendations co-authored by the nonpartisan public policy organization and Issue One are HERE.

THE CLOSER

And finally … Kudos to the winners of this week’s Morning Report Quiz!

They knew that Bush at 18, “just about to turn nineteen on the twelfth of June, … was likely the youngest flying officer in the navy” when he earned his wings to become a bomber pilot (The Washington Post + Jon Meacham’s “Destiny and Power” biography).

Former Sen. Robert Dole, 95, was the decorated World War II veteran who saluted the casket of the 41st president in the Capitol Rotunda on Tuesday after rising with assistance from his wheelchair (CNN).

Former President Jimmy Carter, 94, who was in the U.S. Navy as World War II came to an end, joined former presidents and their spouses at the National Cathedral on Wednesday as they paid their respects to Bush (U.S. Navy history).

After parachuting from his burning plane into the Pacific Ocean in 1944, Bush was rescued by a U.S. submarine, which rose to the surface near his tiny raft. A crewman greeted Bush, saying, “Welcome aboard, sir.” He was 20 years old (The Washington Post). (A short video of Bush’s rescue is HERE.)