It will boil down between the B 7E7 and the A 332 but I expect the B 7E7 to emerge victorious for both ANA and JAPAN due to their long BOEING history and tradition. The only AIRBUS aircraft that I feel has a real chance in JAPAN in a few years are the A 380 pax and freighter versions.

It would be nice to see a Japanese airline flying the A330-200, but at first tought chances are better for Boeing. However orders in the near past from other loyal, or big Boeing customers have nearly all been in favor, or partially in favor, of Airbus (KLM, Air New Zealand, Qantas, Korean Air, Iberia, Thai) so an order for Airbus is not unrealistic. Since this order is probaply just an initial order, with much more to come, I could just imagine that both Airbus and Boeing will do wathever is in their power to get the deal. Could be interesting.

This order is to replace older 767s and A300s. Presumably, the requirement needs to be met in the next 1-2 years. Clearly, the 7E7 can't do that, and if JAL can wait till 2008 to replace these a/c, why issue an RFP now?

If JAL do need an a/c now, then Boeing can only offer the 767, while Airbus would offer the A332. In a straight fight the A332 looks a better choice. However, given that JAL only recently ordered more 767s, I think Boeing will offer additional 767s on some kind of lease or buy-back deal, replacing them with 7E7s as and when.

Sadly, given Airbus' declining market share in Japan, and pressure on Japan to reduce the trade gap with US (not that the gap with Europe is exactly small!), I expect to see JAL select Boeing. However, if Airbus can come up with a very attractive deal, then there's nothing to stop JAL taking A332s now, then looking at the 7E7 much later once it's a proven plane.

I think this favours Boeing, but don't rule out Airbus!

Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.

I have my doubts that Airbus will win this order. Someone mentioned here that Japan is a major Boeing customer, and Japanese companies are heavily involved in Boeing widebody airplane construction.

I personally believe that JL and NH will become the launch customers for the 7E7--and will probably get a Memorandum of Understanding or options with Boeing to launch the plane by the end of this year or in January 2004. And that is only the beginning; we could also see LH do the same thing about the same period so LH can use the new plane to replace their A310's and older A300B planes.

This RFP is suspiciously timed, given that JAL just ordered more 767s as Scbriml mentioned: if they need to replace their old 767s and A300s now, why not continue snapping up new-build 767s from Boeing, with significant discounts for keeping the line moving? IMHO, JAL is trolling to be a 7E7 launch customer and is using the RFP to prod Boeing into offering the Dreamliner. Local media has reported that the Japanese are pressuring the Boeing Board to give sales authorization as soon as possible, perhaps sometime in Nov or Dec.

This is the only thing that makes any sense: if JAL wanted a new fleet of A330s to replace their 767s, why did they just sign for more 763s? We could see the first 7E7 orders rolling in within months. Combined with recent news that China will order "dozens" of Boeing jets in the coming months(http://www.tribnet.com/news/story/4274258p-4284998c.html), perhaps customers outside Japan will join the program very soon as well.

B2707, I agree... also, it should be noted that Boeing has (rather surreptitiously) received permission from its board to offer the 7E7 to both JL and NH before launch.... this has only been done before with the 777NGs.

Fortunately airlines usually don't make their purchases based on tradition and sympathy.
As 7E7 has still long time to go I see this as a chance for Bus. If they come with very good offer - they could get it.

Hahahaha... any of you folks who even THINK Airbus has any chance to win this order must be smoking some powerful stuff. I give it a 1% chance, and that's if Boeing goes bankrupt within the next year. The 7E7 has already been designated a national project of Japan by the government. The A320's owned by ANA are already to be replaced by newly ordered 737's and the A300's over at JAL/JAS are outta of there. As I've said before, there will not be a single Airbus registered in Japan once fleet renewal is completed.

JAS actually had it right - the A300-600R is the perfect airplane for the Japanese market. Its less capable and carries more pax than the 767-300ER, and has sufficient range to many mainland destinations.

The RFP is carefully worded to avoid the 330... and really, the 7E7 is the best way to go.

If Boeing can deliver on current performance figures, the 7E7 is shaping up to be a magnificent airplane. The 7E7 Baseline will enter service in 2008, the Stretch around 2010. No specs for the likely Short-Range variant(s) are listed.

Euh, let us just hope that the wingspan of the 7E7 stretch is not the decisive factor for airlines ordering the proposed aircraft. They might be dissapointent, to find out that these 186 inches turn out to be 186 feet.

Japan Airlines System Corporation is looking to replace aircraft with approximately 15 new 250 seat aircraft. "We are going to need new aircraft to replace older 767s and older A300s. Eventually our replacement requirement will be greater than that,"

it says there.

The first of those is to be delivered in 2008, at a rate of 3 per year. If that is supposed to be a joke, and I guess it is, I am afraid I have missed the point.

So what is this all about? The 7x7 Thing is scheduled to becoming available just around then, but with JL and NH still not knowing what exactly the Thing is really going to look like maybe they do not want to commit any more than politically required

The A300 was and still is the best short to medium 250 people hauler, Boeings 767-whatever does not get anywhere close to its economics. Problem is, the A 300 is getting "old", with hours accumulating and no true replacement in sight.

Also, the A300 may not fit into the current fleet, for political and whatever other reasons, those are up to anyone's guess.

Then again, with JL and also NH being the only truly potential launch customers for the 7x7 - and them clearly being aware of this, both are trying to exploit this advantage - the matter can only be regarded as a game. Political considerations, the trade deficit with the US and some 40% of the possible future Boeing 7x7 to be made in Japan, come to mind.

So what are JL and NH up to?

Airbus likely will put in a political bid, to not upset potential customers and to spoil a competitors life - i.e. standard business practice/procedure.

More likely though is a deal for some A380 and a number of A330'ies or other smaller busses attached to this, for the overall deal to more palatable, i.e. the icing on the cake.

We shall see

Cheers

Peter

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)

LH is interested in the 7e7, but I've not heard anything from them that says that they're interested in being launch customer... but, that said, it wouldn't surprise me if they would turn out to be one - they've been launch customer on so many planes now, I think they somehow enjoy it... or maybe it's just for the big discounts - after all, those guys sure know how to use calculators...

Having said that, I'd definitively prefer Airbusses moving back into Japan (the same type of rebound that happened at SAA) - but for several reasons, most of which having been mentioned here, I don't see that happening...

"If Boeing can deliver on current performance figures, the 7E7 is shaping up to be a magnificent airplane. The 7E7 Baseline will enter service in 2008, the Stretch around 2010. No specs for the likely Short-Range variant(s) are listed."

indicates no short range version of the 7E7 is planned so the only true competitor is and remains the A 330-200.

One day Boeing will have to commit to more than suggesting potential proposals being no more than remote possibilities somewhere down the road. Slight exaggeration I know, but then again, if the change ever happens that day will be truly exiting!

Cheers

Peter

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)

Heavierthanair, the planned 7e7 base model is supposed to have a range of 6600nm, the A330-200 has 6650nm... as much as I like the A330-200, but that's not really any more of a short range aircraft than the base 7e7 is supposed to be, is it?

I actually think that the timing is quite logical in that there is a bit of a recovery starting to materialise in the industry, and with that the prices for aircraft will slowly creep back up again. The Japanese are not looking for aircraft in the next 2 years specifically, and even if they were, they couldn't have these types of orders filled within that time.

Therefore, it is smart to get your huge order in while things are depressed and the manufacturers need all the orders they can get.

I agree with the sentiment that Boeing is the most likely to win on these orders, but with Asia being primarily Boeing country, Airbus may do an airbus special and make a deal that they cannot refuse. For example, Airbus could offer a deal that just breaks even for them, or even take a loss as that would get them in the Asia door and they could make their profits down the road when they have a stronger foothold. Boeing unfortunately can't really do the same as they only stand to lose in this situation as they will never really increase their presence in Asia so they are really only in the situation to lose footing these days.

For Boeing to offer a breakeven deal would be pointless, and to over a loss maker deal would be just as pointless as they will face this competition on every order.

"not that they'd bother arguing with someone who apparently has little idea as to what he speaks.... I'm sure SQ, LH, et al would all beg to differ"

We all want to have a choice. Not that we want change, but we do not want to appear overly depending on a sole source, thus the apparent open field for bidders, i.e. players in what appears to be a "battle" for future business. A lot of that is BS, please excuse my choice of wording. Take the example of LH. They were really &"°à-off, when Boeing decided to stop production of the DC11 freighter after they just ordered some. So what do you do? Tell Boeing to get - you know what? What future choice does that leave you with?

Leave the door open, do not commit prematurely.

Likely you get the deals you want

Cheers

Peter

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe." (Albert Einstein, 1879 - 1955)