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Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Democratic Party Favorable Rating Falls to Record Low

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- After the midterm elections that saw the
Democratic Party suffer significant losses in Congress, a record-low 36%
of Americans say they have a favorable opinion of the party, down six
percentage points from before the elections. The Republican Party's
favorable rating, at 42%, is essentially unchanged from 40%. This marks
the first time since September 2011 that the Republican Party has had a
higher favorability rating than the Democratic Party.

These results come from a Nov. 6-9 Gallup poll, conducted after
Republicans enjoyed a breathtaking sweep of important contests
throughout the country in this year's midterms. The party gained control
of the Senate and will likely capture its largest House majority in
nearly a century. Additionally, the GOP now controls 31 governorships
and two-thirds of state legislative chambers.

The descent in Democrats' ratings caps a wild political ride for both
parties over the past two years. After President Barack Obama's
re-election in 2012, the Democratic Party's favorable rating spiked to
51%, the first time either party had enjoyed majority support since
2009. However, after the post-election glow wore off, the party's image
settled back down near the 45% average for the Obama presidency.
Meanwhile, Americans' favorable ratings of the Republican Party collapsed
to 28% during the fall 2013 federal government shutdown, the lowest
such rating for either party since Gallup first asked the question in
1992.

Because of congressional Republicans' apparent political
miscalculation in allowing the shutdown, some raised the possibility of a
Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in the 2014
midterms. But the speculation was short lived. While Republicans agreed
to a compromise that ended the shutdown, the Obama administration made a
number of political blunders, including the botched rollout of the
federal government's healthcare website; a series of international
crises in Ukraine, Iraq and Syria; the Veterans Affairs hospitals
scandal; and a criticized response to the first appearance of the Ebola
virus on U.S. soil. Whatever momentum the Democrats gained during the
government shutdown was lost. The Democratic Party's image stagnated as
Republicans' slowly improved, putting the parties at rough parity heading into the midterms.

The GOP currently has an image advantage over the Democratic Party;
still, neither party is held in particularly high regard. This is yet
another sign of Americans' dissatisfaction with their political system.

Democrats Now Less Likely to Have Positive Image of Own Party

Across party groups, the Republican Party's image held steady from
Gallup's last update in September. But support for the Democratic Party
dropped among independents and among Democrats themselves. Currently,
81% of self-identified Democrats have a favorable view of their party,
down from 88% in September and 95% shortly after the 2012 election.
Independents' ratings of the Democratic Party, at 25%, are down 10
points from September.

Bottom Line

After the 2012 election, many political analysts focused on the GOP's
"image problem." Now, it is the Democrats who appear to have the more
battered image. Their favorability rating has never been lower, and they
are reeling from defeats that cost them control of the U.S. Senate and
strengthened the Republican House majority to levels likely not seen in
90 years.

On the other hand, the American public does not admire Republicans
more, their numerous election victories notwithstanding. Neither party
can say it is making significant progress in improving its image among
the U.S. population, but undoubtedly the 2014 elections augmented the
GOP's ability to shape the agenda in Washington and in state capitals
across the country. This newfound power could pose its own problems for
the GOP. The party could be on the verge of winning over a greater
segment of the country or, not unlike the Democrats this year, could see
its brand go into a free fall. This will depend on what Republican
leaders do in the coming two years.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews
conducted Nov. 6-9, 2014, with a random sample of 828 adults, aged 18
and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of
sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50%
cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional
minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular
telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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