Imagine a map of the political make up of Plymouth. The east is blue, the west red, with a blue-red patchwork of wards running from north-south between them. A political tricolour, if you like.

No surprise the three wards where the result was closest in 2016, the last time there were local elections in the city, are in that central battleground.

There were fewer than 100 votes between Labour, who came first in Budshead, Moor View, and Southway, and the Conservative runners-up.

The three wards share many characteristics: roughly 72% of houses in each are in the lowest two council tax bands, and about a fifth of households in each receive council tax support.

Private sector housing classed as ‘non-decent homes’ is 25% in Budshead, 28% in Moor View and 24% in Southway, all below the city average of 33%. Levels of child poverty range from 25% in Southway, to 29% in Budshead.

Budshead and Moor View have more people working in skilled trades than the Plymouth average, while the number of people who were claiming jobseekers allowance in 2015 was 2% in Budshead, 1% in Moor View, and 2% in Southway, against a city-wide average of 2%.

In this briefest of pen portraits - which also paints a picture of Plymouth as a whole - Budshead is the 8th most deprived ward in the city, Moor View 11th, and Southway 12th. Average life expectancy in the three wards is 81, fractionally above the all-Plymouth figure of 80.6.

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Dr David Brockington, a lecturer in politics at the University of Plymouth, listed two of those wards as marginal: Moor View and Southway. The other four marginals in the city in these elections are Drake, Ham, Honicknowle, and Peverell, he said.

Of those, Ham and Honicknowle appeared to be swinging towards Labour, he said, while in Moor View the Conservatives looked to have the edge, and Southway was always marginal.

Dr Brockington (who, in the interests of disclosure, is closely involved with the Labour campaign) said campaigning in Plymouth had been almost exclusively on local issues, adding: “It is really hard to predict how the national mood music is going to affect the local race.”

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He said UKIP was targeting Ham, Honicknowle and Moor View - the three wards they won in 2014. And where the UKIP vote goes is going to be particularly important in many of the northern wards.

UKIP’s previous results do not conveniently fall into a pattern, they are scattered everywhere, and what happens to the UKIP vote was one of the questions being asked in advance of these elections.

Dr David Brockington, a lecturer in politics at the University of Plymouth

The three UKIP councillors elected in 2014 - in Ham, Honicknowle, and Moor View - supported the Tories for two years - the so-called ‘Bluekip’ coalition - before joining them in 2016.

Those political musical chairs gave the Conservatives overall control of Plymouth City Council, with 30 of the 57 seats. Prior to these elections Labour had the remaining 27 council seats.

Labour is particularly eager to win back control, where success in Plymouth is being viewed by many as an indicator of whether or not the party is winning support in provincial towns and cities outside the big metropolitan areas.

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Another talking point will be turnout. In 2016, turnout was highest in Peverell at 37%, and lowest in St Budeaux at 24%. Overall turnout was about 32%.

Dr Joanie Willett, who researches local politics at the University of Exeter, said there were many reasons turnout in local elections was often poor, high among them the popular view that local polls are no more than a reflection of national politics.

She said: “People need to feel that local politics is really relevant to them, and if they think it is just treated as a national opinion poll why would they bother, that is just a big turn off.”

Polling will take place in 19 of the city’s 20 council wards, with a third of the council’s seats being contested. Only Plympton Erle, one of three two-member wards, has no election.

As well as the Conservatives, Labour (and Labour & Co-operative) and UKIP, the Liberal Democrats are fielding candidates in every ward, the first time it has done so for several years.

Also standing in some wards are candidates from the Green Party and the Trade Union and Socialist Coalition. There are three independents, and one candidate each from the For Britain Movement and Vivamus.

How power could change hands

Tory council boss Ian Bowyer is defending his seat in Eggbuckland ward

If Plymouth’s political parties can agree on only one thing, it would be that today's local elections in the city promise to be very tight.

The Tories hold 30 of the 57 available seats on the council, with Labour nipping at their heels on 27.

In order to claim overall power, a party must hold the majority of all available council seats.

That means the Conservatives could see their reign at the top end if Labour manage to snatch just two seats from them after the polls shut tonight.

But if the Tories lose two seats to one or more smaller parties - which traditionally fair better in local elections given turnouts are much smaller than at general elections - then that blows the battle for leadership wide open.

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The party drummed up strong support in the last local elections in Plymouth in 2016; in traditional and non-traditional Tory wards.

But many believe UKIP's work is now done given the UK and a Tory-formed Government is pursuing Brexit - despite uncertainty and controversies surrounding the terms of the deal.

The Liberal Democrats are hoping for an upturn in their fortunes (Image: Getty/Bloomberg)

The big question is whether UKIP can retain voters, or whether the Tories or other parties can bring them on board.

All three of the UKIP councillors elected in 2014 won their seats from Labour. They sat in coalition with the Tories in a minority administration for two years - given that no single party had a majority of all the seats available on the council.

But the trio - Christopher Storer (Ham), John Riley (Honicknowle) and Maddie Bridgeman (Moor View) - left UKIP in September 2017 and jumped ship to the Conservatives.

The Tories have had overall control of Plymouth City Council since, with 30 of the 57 seats. Prior to these elections, Labour had 27 council seats.

Today, a third of council seats are being contested, with elections in every ward except Plympton Earle.