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I think the bigger question is whether 10 million sales is the 'new normal' for the coming years or if there will be a gradual return to 17 million. My view is that much of that 17 million was debt based consumption. In the future as a nation Americans will only be able to consume the cars that they can pay for out of current income. This is probably closer to 10 mil than 17 mil.

Ålso the car industry seems to have an in-ordinate amount of govt interference which continues to distort sales. The chrysler bankruptcy means many dealers are having to shift stock at cost at best and the govt is still trying to keep the ponzi scheme of zero down financing going. These supports wont continue for ever (of course in the long run many americans will of necessity need to replace cars as they wear out).