Monday, August 11, 2008

Thoughts on Borders' exit

Every news publication that I have an RSS feed for has the news that Lisa Borders is out of the Mayoral race. She is dropping out to take care of her aging parents.

Being a political junkie, it is hard for me to hear the news and not wonder if Mayor Franklin played a role. The Mayor had been officially neutral in the race, but I got the impression she was supporting Kasim. I'm not suggesting that Lisa Borders was forced out at all - I'm suggesting that the Mayor's support for Kasim made the race more difficult for Borders, which made dropping out to support her parents easier.

Also, there is a reason that Jim Galloway thinks her departure is good for Kasim. Obviously they split a natural constituency, and Kasim stands to benefit in a way that Mary Norwood cannot. I previously suggested that white women would be an important constituency for Norwood and Borders, and so I think this helps Norwood a little.

Overall, though, I think Kasim picks up more votes from Borders' departure than Norwood does - you have to assume that Borders' black supporters would gravitate to Kasim. I assumed Borders would get a large share of black female voters, for example, and I see no reason to assume Norwood picks up that demographic. Norwood has focused her issues on white in-town areas, and has at times pissed off the black community. Part of why her initial infill moratorium failed was because it only focused on upper class white neighborhoods.

CL accurately points out that the business community has lost their candidate. I'm not entirely certain that you will see another "business community" candidate, since Kasim and Ceasar both have decent contacts there. Jesse Spikes seems to have a good angle on the "business community" as well, because of his work as a corporate lawyer and with the Metro Chamber of Commerce. I don't know much about him, however, so he is a bit of a wild card. It is possible that one of these candidates could try to gain the business community's support and prevent a new candidate from entering.

At times "the business community" has been a euphemism for "white community". I think now-a-days that isn't entirely accurate, but it still holds a little water. Does this "business community" think it is time to recruit a white candidate, like Clark Howard? Who knows what happens then.