Polls divided on Conservative majority

OTTAWA (Reuters) - The Conservatives could turn their parliamentary minority into a majority in the October 14 election, according to one poll released on Wednesday, while other surveys suggest they could fall just short.

A Strategic Council survey for the Globe and Mail put the Conservatives at 39 percent support, with the official opposition Liberals well behind at 24 percent. The left-leaning New Democrats were at 19 percent.

A Harris-Decima/Canadian Press poll had the Conservatives unchanged at 36 percent, the Liberals down two points at 24 percent and the New Democrats off one point at 17 percent.

An Ekos automated telephone poll put the Conservatives at 34 percent and the Liberals at 25 percent, down two points from the day before, with the New Democrats up one point at 20 percent. It said the chances of a Conservative majority seemed to be slipping away.

Under Canada's first-past-the-post electoral system a party needs around 40 percent of the popular vote to gain a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, or a bit less if the gap over the next party is very large.

At dissolution, the Conservatives had 127 seats, the Liberals 95, the separatist Bloc Quebecois 48, the leftist New Democrats 30, and the Green Party 1. Three seats were held by independents and four were vacant. To win a majority, 155 seats are needed.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper says he needs a strong mandate to manage an economy increasingly hit by the slowdown in the United States, by far Canada's most important trading partner. Opposition parties say he is a right-wing extremist who cannot be trusted with a majority.

Strategic Counsel said that while 52 percent of Canadians were worried about a Harper majority, only 16 percent would change their vote in a bid to prevent it.

"It speaks to the lack of inspiration they feel about their other choices," said Peter Donolo of Strategic Counsel.
Continued...