samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

If that's the case, then scum plus cult could easily force no lynches every day.

samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

If that's the case, then scum plus cult could easily force no lynches every day.

It is the case, and you have been able to for quite some time. I'm surprised you hadn't proposed it yet yourself. I can only assume that doing this is not in your favor or the cult's, since you cannot both win. There are 10 people, four of which are scum, which means that none of us have the majority. As far as I can see we are at an impasse and we'll all probably put our foot down. Right now I can only suggest that we cripple the cult's ability to spread and decrease the number of mafia members in the group, since the reverse will not yield a good result for town. If we lynch the CL today, town loses and mafia wins. I cannot willingly allow that to happen. Therefore I suggest we vote saf as he is 100% known to be scum, meaning no party will either win or lose tonight.

samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

samgrossy wrote:What I don't understand is that while we are arguing who the cult leader is and who is what, time is ticking away and several people have pointed to RED being at least cult if not CL or scum and people aren't voting for him. At this point, why wait to lynch someone who people think is scum? What advantage does it hold for town? This is not a rush to lynch call. This is a "get off your butt and vote so that we can at least have a fighting chance" call. We don't even have a change to win this if we have a no lynch today.

Let me make this very clear.

We should NOT lynch the CL today.

What we should do is find out who he is so that I can jail him. That way, he cannot be killed by scum (therefore town cannot be endgamed by majority) and he cannot recruit me (therefore he cannot win by recruiting all town). Scum cannot NK me since they would hand the victory over to the CL.

This is the only way I see out of this scenario. In order to fulfill it, we have to a) know who the cult leader is and b) lynch scum. Every day.

This is the first post in a while that makes a whole lotta sense, as I agree that we are close to lylo. Although, Nag is right is in that it is easier said than done.

So if there is a Doc, we need to protect you every night so that we can jail keep the CL if we can nail him. We then just play that strategy for a couple of days and we are back at even. But we NEED THE MAFIA to go along with it. If cult overruns town and mafia, its because we couldn't work together for now.

So the question is that you say that Saf is 100% scum. I am not sure that he is. I don't remember thinking his claims were that out of line or thinking he was so very suspicious. I know that there were pages of discussion about it, but I didn't see much out of line with it. I, on the other hand, think its almost a sure thing that RED is a better target than Saf. Can we come to a consensus quick? If we mislynch, we are done.

I think that red is a better target for a lynch. At least I can use my night action to hunt for the cult leader. I think we all can agree that if we can lynch the cult leader, everyone will be better off.

I know this is crazy, but I would have expected you to say that. It just seems weird that you are saying this instead of reiterating some defense and then saying this. Unless you have completely given up and don't really care, it seems like this post is saying "Yup, I'm mafia too"

samgrossy wrote:I know this is crazy, but I would have expected you to say that. It just seems weird that you are saying this instead of reiterating some defense and then saying this. Unless you have completely given up and don't really care, it seems like this post is saying "Yup, I'm mafia too"

What defense do I have really? I've roleclaimed, I've provided clearance for 2 people (which has been verified by those two people) and I now know who the possible CL's are. All anyone really has against me is an innocent result by the insane cop.

I'm just of the opinion that we should try to handle cult now. I'm not going anywhere, we can revisit the case on me tomorrow I think. At this point, I think I've been as helpful as I can be.

safariguy5 wrote:I think that red is a better target for a lynch. At least I can use my night action to hunt for the cult leader. I think we all can agree that if we can lynch the cult leader, everyone will be better off.

No, we cannot lynch Red because he is potentially the cult leader. I DO NOT WANT TO LYNCH THE CULT LEADER because then town will lose. We have to lynch scum every day now. I can only pray that all cult recruitees turn back to town once the CL dies, because if they don't we're screwed either way... but since that is my only hope of victory I have to go with that strategy. We cannot, I repeat we CANNOT, lynch the cult leader. He has to die during the night because we have to keep the amount of mafia low. Since this day is ending pretty soon we don't have much time to gather more information; in my opinion it is more prudent to lynch Safariguy today because we KNOW that he is scum (Jonty the insane cop got an innocent result on him during one of the first nights, and he claims to have used his cop-ability several times after that correctly which either means he's a cult recruitee who's VERY lucky in his guesses or he's a mafia member with the role (or without the role, and buddies who identified his "targets", either way he's mafia).

I've been waiting with pushing this agenda til the last minute because I wanted to jail the cult leader, and for that I needed to know who the cult leader was. Hippo, I suggest you use your vig powers on another member of the mafia members such as Sam (or on Red, I won't be jailing him tonight, that's for sure) because they will likely target you or me with their night kill.

We have 5, potentially 6 people lying for sure (since the scumbag mod didn't tell us Vodean's role), since there are 4 mafia vowels, a U who I still don't know what role he has, and the CL. We know DJ is a busdriver for sure (since Jonty wouldn't have gotten guilty otherwise), but we don't know his alignment. We know Sam is a roleblocker for sure (since he definitely blocked someone during one of the first nights who didn't pop as cult upon death), but we don't know his alignment. We know I'm a jailer because I contacted Vodean during night 2 which he claimed in the wrong thread and for which he basically was modkilled. Hippo might have gotten the message I sent to SW during night 1 (I asked LSU to send it anyway if you hadn't gotten it yet). I know I'm town, but unfortunately you don't. We at least know that I'm not scum since lynching my own team would be a bad idea. We basically know Hippo has a killing power because he knows his attack on Sam was blocked during night 3.

We have no hard evidence on the rest of you. All I can say is that I trust Hippo to be/have been town aligned (since there was another NK during the night he tried to kill Sam) so that leaves two more slots for town. Busdriver is essentially a scummy role so I'd assume DJfire is also scum (that puts it at 3 scum: Saf, Sam and DJ). Leaves one more scum, one Ms. U (whoever or whatever that is) and one CL among five people. 60% chance of hitting non-town, so I'm happy. First we have to ensure town survival though, which means we have to lynch Safariguy.

The rules state that I cannot directly quote PM's I received from the mod so I'm reluctant to copy-paste the PM's I received from Strike Wolf and Vodean.

Aage, you foolishly assume you know what will happen to the cult when the CL dies. Players are just as likely to return to old alignments as anything else. So you then take a plan of action that will ensure the cults victory if you are recruited. BAD.

edocsil wrote:So can no one do any fucking math? This is why I hate cult games more of the time.

The problem with the "effing math" is that we don't know much of it. We know that cult exists, and the most that cult can have is 5 (1 leader and 4 cult) So that's half the players left at most.

Where the math gets tricky is that it could be possible for CL to recruit both Mafia and Town. So, there is a possibility of 5 Mafia members (all the vowels) so that's a max of 10 players not town. So I guess its possible that everyone is lying to everyone else and now this game is playing itself as Mafia vs Cult only. I know this is NOT true as I am Mr. N, Town Nurse. And it appears that Aage is town too, so it is easy to assume that there are at least 2 Townies left. So, the best guess is somewhere between 5 and 8 bad guys (either cult and/or scum). Now there are some funny scenarios, where the mod is not indicating whether the poeple being killed are cult in their death scene. If that's the case, it possible that we have lynched a couple just by mistake, aren't being told, and maybe the cult is not as big as we think. I am kinda hoping for that scenario.

But now the rest is conjecture. I know it's probable for the mod to not indicate when town officially can't win because the cult and mafia would have to play out to see who wins their battle. Town may be at that point already. I may be the lone townie stuck between the cult and mafia battling to win.

But anyway, you could be talking about "Effing" vote math, too. In which case, its important for the Mafia to lynch a Cult and the Cult to lynch a Mafia, so town should be able to get a majority to lynch no matter what. If Saf is Mafia, then the cult should vote him. And lynch him. If Saf is Cult, Scum should vote him and we get a lynch. So if you are talking about vote math, then we are likely to be able to get a majority. The only case I can think of us not getting enough votes to lynch Saf is if he is in the cult and there is only one mafia member left because of recruitment. 4 townies, 1 mafia, and 5 cult. But then we are beyond lylo and the game is over anyway Obviously this works if Saf is mafia and there is one cult member, but that scenario is highly unlikely as I have role blocked someone different every night and I believe Aage has too. Therefore, cult is probably at more than 1 (some may have been lynched or killed and the That assumes everyone votes. We also may get a no lynch just because we don't have everyone voting. Also, it could be that the players turned cult can't vote. That would be frustrating.

Okay - So what math are you asking about us doing? I am willing to tackle any math. Or maybe you are just frustrated about this game and needed to vent. If that's the case, sorry for the overly long post about numbers.

edocsil wrote:So can no one do any fucking math? This is why I hate cult games more of the time.

edocsil wrote:Aage, you foolishly assume you know what will happen to the cult when the CL dies. Players are just as likely to return to old alignments as anything else. So you then take a plan of action that will ensure the cults victory if you are recruited. BAD.

My post addresses both of these issues. Yes, I did the effing math and found that we have to kill mafiosi if we want to win. No, I don't know what will happen when the CL dies, but I can only assume that the recruits will return to their regular alignment because otherwise we're doomed anyway and I refuse to disregard an option of victory. And yes, cult games suck. Very much so.

Basically what it comes down to is Aage is manipulating people and you are all willingly following. Mark me. Check at the end of the game. As of right now HE IS NOT TOWN. I will bet anything on that. He also happens to to be the single best person alive besides saf imo. So when he chases down Saf, who by all odds is cult or scum (as we have agreed, they greatly outnumber town) Now Aage is going to play massive town cred the next day with this lynch and hang one more scum. I assume he knows who all the scum are, it isn't really hard to tell at this point. The fact that he hasn't spilled the entire scum faction is exact reason I believe he is cult. He want's to feed it out in dribbles, and keep the scum from making a desperate ploy with the town vs the cult, which will likely doom the scum anyhow, but will surely end the cult as well. It will be an easy cult win if he can keep the 2-4 townies dancing to his tune and hanign the last few scum as his faction's power grows. I am not cult and I cannot let that happen. However, as per saf's inv he is not the CL, and the CL is the only threat to the town and scum atm. 1 day, 2 if the stars have aligned and your RB's were insanely lucky and town will be defeated while you follow his lead.

Partly I am venting, because I have been in this scenario a lot, and it leaves me with a firm hate for cult games. Partly because I see the same thing time and time again the scum and the cult know each other by the end of the game, and all the cards are in the cult's favor. Town gets screwed in between, and the scum usually lose to the town following a culties lead. The scum can't claim to prove who the CL likely is, they'll get steamrolled by the cult wagon. Our best bet is to take a potshot and a certain cultie, (Red) who has a chance to be the CL. Pray the scum guess right, kill the CL. Roll the scum once alignment returns for the recruits. I am certain that after tonight the game will be decided in the cult's favor if their CL does not die. It may take a day or two for them to hunt down the few remaining scum, but it will be over. Or best bet is to make the scum's odds of success as good as possible. As I have said earlier, there are only a few options for who can be the CL, and if the scum can narrow a few people out, they may have a 50/50 shot, or even be certain of the identity of the CL.

Anyhow, there is the essay's I have survived this long to write, if my earlier numbers are not enough to persuade in conjugation with this post there is likely little I can do.

Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

I've been keeping my head down with all this flic flacing but I think it would be wrong of me to let this continue without some comment from me. I agree with Aage and think he has this right. I know Edoc this is all ever so frustrating but you need to go back and have a think. Two issues immediately spring to mind. Firstly, by ignoring Aage you would be painting one mega target on yourself. We still have a lot of good roles out there but unless we kill scum then town loses - period. By jailing Red (or I could even night kill him assuming I survived the night) but the lynch option doesn't seem realistic for me. Secondly, by being dogmatic about it you bring attention to your motives. Just saying!

edocsil wrote:Basically what it comes down to is Aage is manipulating people and you are all willingly following. Mark me. Check at the end of the game. As of right now HE IS NOT TOWN. I will bet anything on that. He also happens to to be the single best person alive besides saf imo. So when he chases down Saf, who by all odds is cult or scum (as we have agreed, they greatly outnumber town) Now Aage is going to play massive town cred the next day with this lynch and hang one more scum. I assume he knows who all the scum are, it isn't really hard to tell at this point. The fact that he hasn't spilled the entire scum faction is exact reason I believe he is cult. He want's to feed it out in dribbles, and keep the scum from making a desperate ploy with the town vs the cult, which will likely doom the scum anyhow, but will surely end the cult as well. It will be an easy cult win if he can keep the 2-4 townies dancing to his tune and hanign the last few scum as his faction's power grows. I am not cult and I cannot let that happen. However, as per saf's inv he is not the CL, and the CL is the only threat to the town and scum atm. 1 day, 2 if the stars have aligned and your RB's were insanely lucky and town will be defeated while you follow his lead.

Partly I am venting, because I have been in this scenario a lot, and it leaves me with a firm hate for cult games. Partly because I see the same thing time and time again the scum and the cult know each other by the end of the game, and all the cards are in the cult's favor. Town gets screwed in between, and the scum usually lose to the town following a culties lead. The scum can't claim to prove who the CL likely is, they'll get steamrolled by the cult wagon. Our best bet is to take a potshot and a certain cultie, (Red) who has a chance to be the CL. Pray the scum guess right, kill the CL. Roll the scum once alignment returns for the recruits. I am certain that after tonight the game will be decided in the cult's favor if their CL does not die. It may take a day or two for them to hunt down the few remaining scum, but it will be over. Or best bet is to make the scum's odds of success as good as possible. As I have said earlier, there are only a few options for who can be the CL, and if the scum can narrow a few people out, they may have a 50/50 shot, or even be certain of the identity of the CL.

Anyhow, there is the essay's I have survived this long to write, if my earlier numbers are not enough to persuade in conjugation with this post there is likely little I can do.

Hang Red.

There is no other way.

I have read your post, but I still think it's really easy. If we hang the CL today, scum gets a NK and town loses. If we hang scum today, there's 2 roleblockers and 2 night kills that can target the CL tonight, and we have narrowed the amount of people who could possibly be the CL to five. Those chances are an infinite times better than a certain loss for town if we hang the cult leader today. I know you think the cult leader is the most dangerous threat to town. I agree, he would be, if we didn't have so many ways to cripple or even eliminate him during the night. At this moment town has only three "weapons" that I know of: me, Hippo and lynching. I don't want to employ the most important of these three to be used to hunt the CL. Especially since we don't know if we can even use the other two weapons at all during the following nights. Lynch is our most reliable tool to attain victory, and I will not waste it on some idiot who claimed PGO. If for some reason a member of the mafia dies tonight as well as during the day, I will follow you heartily on a Redhedge lynch, but no sooner.

Besides, for all we know Vodean could have been the CL and we're arguing over thin air now. That is also a scenario we cannot ignore, because it still means we're at lylo. Town cannot afford to make any more mistakes or mislynches from now on. Redhedge is an uncertain gamble. Saf is 100% scum. I'm not impressed by his investigative abilities because we will be able to lynch the CL tomorrow if need be; I'm very confident we'll be able to identify who's the cult leader tomorrow if every party uses their night actions wisely. Scum has nothing to gain from NK'ing me or Hippo because that would hand the win over to the CL. I doubt you want that.

As for me being town, luckily my role lets me mason up with someone for the night so you'll have a second opinion tomorrow.

safariguy5 wrote:Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

Actually I thought it a better idea if LoVo tried to stop the lynch we're executing on you now. That would confirm his claim.

safariguy5 wrote:Well ok aage, call me whatever, but you admit I'm not cult. That said, there's no guarantee that you are still jailkeeper. All we know is that you could be recruited already and "claim" to jailkeep someone when really, you're doing nothing of the sort. Maybe town can't trust me, but they sure as heck can't trust you either. At least I'm the evil you know as opposed to the evil you don't know. I say we try and take out the cult now, and once the cult leader is gone, then you all can get back to hanging me.

Not to mention, you're calling for my lynch without knowing who the cult leader is. We assume that we have about 5-6 people who could be the cult leader. Ok, so the numbers say that only 1 of them is cult leader, and you taking a shot in the dark means that you probably won't hit them. If nothing else, logically we should lynch one of them and increase your odds of hitting the CL. Because you again, have said (and I've proven) I'm not the CL. Killing me does not make your night action any easier to pick.

I can easily investigate one of the people under suspicion (lovo maybe?) and give us an even better idea of who CL is tomorrow.

Actually I thought it a better idea if LoVo tried to stop the lynch we're executing on you now. That would confirm his claim.

But if lovo is cult (and you know is he is or isn't) Saf will die, there will be 2-3 scum remaining (lol@ 5 scum assumptions. 5 scum 1 cult 1 sk 13 town) Last game had 5 scum and a SK, but no cult and a fucking OP town, like 5 potential investigatives, once sanities were understood.

So the idea would be good in theory. Saf is saved for the day lovo is proven to be a gov. However if lovo is cult and has no action (or disagrees with saving an obvious scum) saf dies, scum kill lovo, and cult recruit again. 5/8 are now cult.

Aage, I just practically fell off the couch. You want us to prevent a lynch? Saf is 100% scum, we are close to lylo (IMO) and you, yourself, have claimed that we need to be super careful of who we lynch, but have in no uncertain terms claimed that we to lynch to stay ahead of this. Now you want LoVo to prevent the lynch. The night kill then makes us even further in the hole.

I cannot support LoVo preventing the lynch today, if we even get one. We are too close to being screwed.

samgrossy wrote:Aage, I just practically fell off the couch. You want us to prevent a lynch? Saf is 100% scum, we are close to lylo (IMO) and you, yourself, have claimed that we need to be super careful of who we lynch, but have in no uncertain terms claimed that we to lynch to stay ahead of this. Now you want LoVo to prevent the lynch. The night kill then makes us even further in the hole.

I cannot support LoVo preventing the lynch today, if we even get one. We are too close to being screwed.

FPed by Edoc

If lovo prevents, 10 players go into night, meaning scum can't win this night and neither can the CL because there will be 2 or more non-cult town players (and we already decided that the CL won't be able to win, otherwise we wouldn't be lynching saf in the first place). If lovo doesn't prevent, 9 players go into night, means Lovo's not town and therefore not cleared. But we lose a scum meaning once again that scum can't win this night (because they're down 1 man) and neither can the CL.

If LoVo is capable of preventing, by all means I would love him to. We need information. We already know saf is scum. We do however not know what LoVo is.