Labor facing wipeout: poll

FEDERAL Labor faces electoral annihilation, losing seats previously considered ultra-safe, unless the party switches back to Kevin Rudd, a new poll has found.

It raises the prospect of double-digit swings ousting Sydney MPs on buffers of up to 12 per cent - including two government ministers.

It also suggests Prime Minister Julia Gillard's five-day visit to shore-up marginal western Sydney electorates from Sunday may be futile, with lifelong Labor voters in far safer seats walking away.

The exclusive Fairfax Media/ReachTel automated poll, taken in four safe Labor electorates in Sydney's west, has found much of Labor's collapse can be attributed to negative perceptions of Ms Gillard's leadership.

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It also suggests western Sydney could be saved if Mr Rudd were re-installed as leader.

The automated phone poll surveyed 2550 voters across the four Labor heartland electorates of Chifley, Blaxland, McMahon and Werriwa. It has a margin of error of 3.9 per cent.

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Chifley and Blaxland are held with margins of 12.3 per cent and 12.2 per cent respectively. McMahon and Werriwa are also held with solid margins of 7.8 and 6.8 per cent respectively.

However, the poll, conducted on Thursday evening, showed all four seats would be surrendered to the Liberal Party in a shift that would redraw Australia's political landscape were an election held now.

Strategists on both sides of politics believe the September 14 election will be decided predominantly in NSW and Queensland, where a swag of marginal Labor seats are vulnerable, although this poll suggests seats on much higher margins could also fall.

In Victoria, where Labor's standing is stronger, as few as three of its seats, Corangamite, Deakin, and La Trobe, are considered marginal, but several seats on margins above 5 per cent, if the ReachTel figures were replicated here, would also be in danger.

These include Chisholm (5.8 per cent) held by Speaker Ann Burke, as well as Bruce (7.7 per cent), and Melbourne Ports (7.9 per cent).

The poll confirms Labor faces its biggest challenge in NSW, where its brand has been hammered in the ICAC corruption hearings, and by links to a dysfunctional former state government and the Craig Thomson debacle.

Asked who would get their first preference vote in Blaxland if an election were held today, 34.2 per cent of the 662 residents polled nominated Mr Clare, who is the Minister for Home Affairs and Justice.

That compared with 44 per cent for the Liberal Party, giving it a 54/46 two-party-preferred vote.

However, when asked to re-consider their vote if Mr Rudd were leader of the ALP rather than Ms Gillard, the numbers reversed, giving Labor the 54 per cent share of the vote.

The poll showed that in Chifley, Mr Husic would have been turfed out after just one term, with his share of the vote dropping from 62.3 per cent in 2010, to 46 per cent.

However, when the 641 residents were asked to factor in Mr Rudd instead, the poll suggested Mr Husic would retain the seat easily.

In McMahon, Higher Education Minister Chris Bowen's almost 8 per cent margin would be obliterated, leaving him with just 38 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.

In a speech last night in Sydney, the Treasurer Wayne Swan defended Labor's reform record including his underperforming mining tax.

He said carrying out reform was always hard, citing the recent American presidential election, where President Barack Obama did not blink with ''all the guns of the vested interests and their cheerleaders in the conservative media'' trained on him.