By ART THIEL, P-I COLUMNIST

Published 10:00 pm, Sunday, March 18, 2007

PEORIA, Ariz. -- As chief executive officer, Chuck Armstrong admits to "choking a little bit" when considering the club-record $111 million payroll with which the Mariners are likely to start the season.

Fans can identify with Armstrong's gag reflex. They felt a hurl in development when they read in the P-I recently that the club's annual statement to the Public Facilities District reported a $23 million annual profit -- despite three consecutive losing seasons.

But those moments of dyspepsia will pale compared to the feeling should a contract extension for Ichiro Suzuki not be consummated by the July trade deadline. Perhaps Armstrong and the fans can share a heavy heave in unison.

In terms of marquee draws prior to 2007 results, the Mariners have the ballpark and Ichiro.

While the stadium has issued no demands except for a fresh coat of paint, Ichiro made it clear at the start of spring training of his walk year that while he enjoyed Seattle, he's ready to try free agency if the Mariners don't construct a winner.

So there really isn't a choice. They need Ichiro more than he needs them.

The roster is mostly set, and the club has all the money it needs to make him one of the game's highest-paid players, even if he could be pushing 40 by the time any proposed deal expires.

Doesn't matter that Ichiro's critics cite his on-base percentage that is relatively low for a leadoff hitter, or his lack of power, to explain the foolishness of giving a singles hitter Manny Ramirez money.

In the bigger baseball picture, until the Mariners post a 16-10 April, or thereabouts, Ichiro is all the Mariners have besides a beautiful day at the yard to create anticipation. Even after that, an absence of certainty about Ichiro will be a seasonal drag.

Armstrong declined to offer any update on contract negotiations. He did point out some things that, in context, make a point about Ichiro's unique primacy to the Mariners.

While many fans presume that the steady decline in attendance should be cause for management to panic, the fact is that last year's 2.5 million attendance was remarkable -- sixth in the American League -- for a team with lackluster results and individuals.

A part of that steady attraction is a great park and the best summer weather in the nation. The Mariners' extensive fan surveys have shown that half the club's attendance comes from beyond King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. On weekends, about a quarter of the crowd is from out of state.

What that describes is Wrigley Field West, light on the ivy.

With MLB's fourth-highest cable-TV ratings, thanks in part to the club's huge geographic reach, it's clear that Mariners games for many are more about a Seattle-based happening featuring Ichiro, the only player with a national profile, and less about a results-driven affinity.

Despite a generally dubious reception for general manager Bill Bavasi's attempted off-season improvements, the Mariners based their 2007 operating budget on a decline to 2.3 million fans. The club has almost met its preseason forecast of 13,800 season-ticket equivalents, Armstrong said, with a couple of weeks remaining before the opener.

Armstrong said that at 2.3 million, there won't be enough attendance to support the payroll increase, about $20 million. That would mean the club would, for the first time in its Safeco operation, lose money.

Which is not exactly a weeper, given what happened in 2006.

"We won't be profitable, but we had the cushion (for 2006)," he said. "It enables us to operate (2007) at a loss."

The record profit, helped in part by a one-time-only payment from MLB's sale of the Washington Nationals, as well as a reduction of about $5 million in payments to the revenue-sharing pool, means the club has no choice but to meet Ichiro's contract demands.

Driving that conclusion is the fact that after three years of roster-churning, the Mariners have almost no other players who resonate with the more casual fan. From the heyday of the 116 wins of 2001, produced by baseball's second-oldest team, the Mariners, following the August trade of 43-year-old Jamie Moyer, had the youngest 25-man roster in the game.

That means a lot of new guys, and a lot of veterans who weren't compelling.

"Our surveys show fans don't identify with players now as when they were on a first-name basis," Armstrong said. "Certainly, they haven't developed love for (newcomers) Jose Guillen and Jose Vidro. There's only a little bit of love for (All-Star second baseman) Jose Lopez. It's starting to happen for Richie Sexson and Andre Beltre.

"It comes down to W's and L's -- we need to win so fans can identify with the new players."

To that end, Armstrong said he addressed the players about what they may have read in the media regarding the notion of building a contending team.

"No, that's wrong," he said. "We expect to win."

To keep Ichiro, to draw more than 2.3 million, to justify a 25 percent payroll increase, the Mariners have to win more now than at any time since 1995, when the only way to avert a franchise move to Tampa was to win.

Now, they have a ballpark, a summer, plenty of money and a nearly foolproof fan base. But they've had that since mid-1999.