Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

Jromeha

I have been reading the "free" PSW for about a year and have always liked Phil's style as it closely resembled the way I like to trade (mostly naked put options). I have been a paid subscriber for about 5 weeks and I have been learning a lot from Phil and other members. I had made some money on Phil's "free" ideas in the past and I joined because one of Phil's futures ideas paid for my subscription within the same day (NG). Phil deserved my subscription and I was eager to learn more. I just did a quick tally and within the last 5 weeks the ideas that I chose to follow from Phil generated over 25K in options profits and 12K in futures profits (some of my trades were more conservative than what Phil's had suggested). I have a lot to learn, experience and confidence to gain. Thanks again Phil and Successful Trading to all.

Verreaul

Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

Winston

I cannot believe the success I have had in the last 6 months because of what I have learned here! It has been truly life changing. It's like the old adage about teaching someone how to fish instead of just giving them a fish. Thank you Phil, I am forever grateful and hope I have helped someone else along the way.

Craigsa620

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane!
Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

Seeking Truth

Phil/Everyone here/Thank you - What everyone here with their insightful comments (including yourself) has helped me with is that I'm greatly increasing my ability to trade more psychologically neutral, although I've got a ways to go. Two years ago I'd wake up early and my heart would race if futures weren't pointing exactly how I wanted… I've noticed an exponential leap in my discipline skills especially over this past two weeks. The old me would have ran with that trade for profits without even asking. Now I know that there are ALWAYS more trades and that I have PLENTY of options to turn a bad trade even. Also, it's more logical and less emotionally draining which lets me focus my faculties on my wife, college, my job, and studying for the ol' Series 7. Would it be safe to say that one of the most important skills to develop is the ability to adjust? I'd love to get to the point where I can look at a bracket and know, for example, what I need to sell for cover in what month in order to get my desired results. Both COF and my past DMM venture have been excellent learning experiences. Thanks, everyone. I look forward to further lessons.

Skasiah

HOTT / Got great trades with it: Enter 6.75 at open, out at 7.18 (avg) at 10:13
Reentered at 7.00 and out all 7.11 few minutes ago- Was a small play but I collected enoght for next month PSW subscription.

Spider

I'm just starting my second year as a member, and I'd like to thank all of you for sharing your trading ideas and insight, and especially Phil of course for great all-around investing advice as well as trades! In addition to learning patience and profit-taking, I think one of the most important things I'm learning here is to stick to stocks and trades that suit my temperament. And wow, I had NO idea how hard it was to learn patience. I should say "practice" instead of "learn", because it seems to be a constant struggle. Phil, please keep reminding us how nice CASH is!

Jerseyside

I must give kudos to Phil for changing my way of thinking. I'm a gambler by nature and used to just play the indexes with 3x etf's… well I still do, but the options give far better returns than I ever dreamed of. With these wild swings I've been catching 50-100% winners in days.

Mkucstars1

Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you!
I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure.
I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options.
You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

Redfern1

Have been a member for about 6 months or there abouts. Signed up for a quarter at first and then for a year. To me, and it's only my opinion, it's an investment and I have made the membership fees back many times over on the strategy advice. Since joining and implementing the strategy of buy/writes and hedges I have cut my portfolio losses for the year and have a really good chance of going positive this year. If I would have continued down the road I was on, I would still have been fumbling around without a strategy and completely inept in what I was doing. I feel now the strategy is working and I am far more comfortable with the risks I am taking. I still have a lot to learn but I feel the fees have been one of the best investments I have made. The returns have been fantastic. Still have problems with the politics but hey nobody is perfect

DKGuy

Phil, Thanks for the long calls@ $ 85 on AAPL. A quick $4900. Paid for my subscription!!

Newthugger

Thanks Phil, I have adjusted my position by getting rid of the IYF puts, and selling the FAZ puts. You have so many of these awesome little tricks in your playbook that it really amazes me. I toally love your analogy by the way: Do you want insurance that you have to pay for, or do you want insurance that pays you?

Craigzooka

Hey I just did a nice options trade on LL for $800 (50%) gain thanks to this site, so… not bad for my first day! An hour of reading you guys and I already paid for two months subscription! Thank you!

lchu

Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

Winston

Here I have learned and look differently at things. Over the years being with PSW I have first of all learned and gained in knowledge of trading. This to me is one of the biggest gains. I still remember the play on Caesar Palace, paid my trip to Atlanta!

Yodi

Phil/USO Adjustment~~ Thanks for showing us the make it even (maybe even profitable) tricks for 'fixing' a losing position. I would have never known the trick if you didn't explain it. The option adjustment techniques are very helpful. Trading stocks would probably never offer that kind of flexibilities! Thanks!

Investwizard

I doubled down on our USO June $35 puts on Tuesday afternoon and listened to your posting yesterday and sold 1/2 midday and the rest I sold (luckily) at the top of the market yesterday with the last 1/4 of my contracts at 100% return in less than one day!

Samlawyer

Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

Jomptien

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

Zucko

Phil, thanks for the call on the SKF puts earlier, I'm riding that horsie downhill right now, giddyup!

MrMocha

Phil - I just referred 10 people. Last week was a 50% gainer for me. There are companies that want to sell mentoring service for thousands of dollars. This is far better of a deal with very good advice.

Steve

You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

Dclark41

Peter D, Just a note of thanks. Eight weeks ago, I entered my first RUT strangles, when the RUT was at 625. Tomorrow, I will let them expire, with the RUT at 625 (give or take). I didn't care when the RUT went to 650, nor when it dropped to 590. Easiest, no touch money I've made in a long time.

Judahbenhur

AMZN ... thanks Phil; boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there ... made me sweat ... scaling helped! I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow ... maybe lower.

Cap

You may wonder if anyone gets anything out of you seminars (or may not wonder). Anyway, I almost never day trade because of my job. Today, I was home due to the snow and since I was behind by 2 weeks on watching your recorded seminars I though I would watch one of them. I set up my pivot point charts in TOS to match the ones in your seminar and made the QQQ trade from this morning. I only bought 5 puts. While I watched the seminar, I would pause then switch back and forth and watch the live QQQ chart. I ended up stopping out for a $170 gain, but it was pretty cool to have the dip and recovery at the same time I was learning the art of stopping out when a pivot line was taken out.

rj_jarboe

The best play I made this year was PSW. Will renew my membership tonight. Looking for the same trading profit percentages next year, but will have an advantage from the compounding, and much better skills acquired from you and the many skilled PSW co-pilots. Thanks!

Gel1

I'd like to wish Phil and everyone else that contributes to this board a very Merry Christmas and happy New Year. The wealth of knowledge on here is incredible, and it has greatly contributed to my understanding of markets, politics, and the world in general. This year was when Phil's teachings all seemed to click in place, and my portfolio's performance shot up, and for that I am very grateful. Thank you!

Palotay

I have been here for 8 yrs, and find it the best service out there. There are more eyes on the market in this forum than anywhere, and opinions abound. So, relax, and let the group help you out.

Pharmboy

Phil: Thank You!
Scaling, Scaling, and Scaling… then patience, patience, patience I'm 2 to 1 short and even on a day the broad market is up I had my largest one day gain in years. The last 6 weeks in fact have been great. I really feel I've learned to use some tools that will enable me to deal with the turbulence ahead. Selling short calls is definitely my preferred approach. Even allowed me to play golf this afternoon while the premium melted away and shoot a career low round. I owe you man!

Sign up today for an exclusive discount along with our 30-day GUARANTEE — Love us or leave, with your money back! Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments. We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE — Not the Gambler!

It is hard to learn the process that Phil teaches, but it is worth the effort. I think it is finally sinking in & so I say Thanks teacher for your patience & expertise! I've had a very good week so far & I know it is because of persisting in this learning process that you teach.

Pirateinvestor

Phil - I know I am small change compared to most others members, but I just wanted to let you know that during the last two weeks with the shorts you and others suggested I have 6 winners and 5 losers. My losers were small because I tried to follow your guidelines as best I could. On the other hand my winners on average were around 50%. Consequently, I am up $2000 in 14 days. Thank you for your patience and help. I think I am making progress getting rid of some of my poor trading habits of the past!

DCalrk41

PSW – Price/Value; The value of PSW on a regular basis exceeds by far the price of the annual subscription. The edition of February 26 'Which Way Wednesday – Popping or Topping?', – priceless for the serious investor.

Winston

Phil// Cashing out of my LT holdings have been going on for over two weeks. However, I have elected not to cash all of the holdings including my AAPL, Jan 16 Short Puts at $470 and $480. Plus, I am being opportunistic in selectively putting on those positions for beat down stocks by selling 2016 Puts. That said, YTD harvested profits now stand at $135k on a current account balance of $683K or a 19.81% YTD return. Thanks for your expertise in teaching me how to be patient, be the banker, but also not being greedy, cashing out and harvesting profits.

IHS4GOD

Phil I must say that it was really nice to have a portfolio that was looking very stable in the face of a rough day for the markets. I ended the day up 0.3% which includes another successful day of futures trading. So with a portfolio of mostly cash, a few of our faves like Apple and LL, JO, TOL, DIS, etc., along with a couple of hedges that paid off nicely today, and my futures trades, I never had to break a sweat during that madhouse today. Yes, by George (or Phil), I may be learning this system!

Craig

Blessings, ALL: So we have completed two months of 2015. So far it has been a good ride with my PSW all short put portfolio showing a 15.73% gain with $83K in profits harvested in 2015.

IHS4GOD

Phil: I am always able to figure out your trades, including the rational when put in the right context of previous comments, etc. Keep doing what you're doing. It is much appreciated, and invaluable. Your hit rate of successful trades has been very high in my 1.5 months as a member, but even more importantly is your teaching of how to repair and DD positions that haven't gone your way yet. As with most members, we all have our ‘pet' trading interests, and learning how to think about trading is much more important than a specific trade, which could see the conditions behind it change an hour later. This is the classic case, of ‘Teach us to Fish', rather than just giving us a fish once in a while. Thank you!

Neverworkagain

Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

Doro165

Praising PSW for enlightenment is a bit akin to praising the Pope for being holy. I've been reading PSW for about two months now and have learned more about investing technique and the world in general than I've learned from the books and seminars I've paid for. Thanks for the enlightenment, the education, the guidance and the truth, which is not a commodity these days, but a virtue in short supply.

Andy Morris

Phil thanks. You never cease to amaze me with your thoughtful perspective on a myriad of different issues and challenges. It's kind of an embarrassment of riches since I joined this board a few years back. The ride from Dow 9,000 or was it 8,000? up to Dow 15,000 seems hard to believe. I wish I could have it all over again, except with the capital I have now.

Winston

This site, for me, is where I have learned how to use options & futures. It is also where I get a constant flow of new ideas. In addition, it's great to know that I have many sources, mostly Phil, if I get lost in a trade. I have been here for 8 years, and am grateful to PHIL and fellow members. I manage about half a million, and although I may not always achieve what Phil does, I am not complaining. I have learned so much. Thank you Phil!

DClark41

Your discussion during your web seminar on SPX and SDS today was great. It really let me see how you look at the numbers and use the 5% rule to see where inflection points occur and what the bands look like. This was incredibly helpful. I actually sold out of my small short position at a good profit ( which was more a bet on a short term fluctuation rather than a hedge after listening to you) and will look more deeply at my portfolio and how to hedge it. In addition your view on hedging was also very helpful looking at the leverage you can get w/ a small spread, and protect portfolio against a big move against me. Thank you for your sharing this. Very helpful.

Batman

Phil: That NFLX call was awesome. The speed at which NFLX options decayed was precipitous. The blow out spike that allowed me to double and roll my callers to 190(!) and the ridiculous 170 weeklies @3.50 a day away from Op-Ex. The gains I realized in that trade floored me when I took a long at my portfolio value on Friday. What a great way to start the 3rd Quarter.

Kinkistyle

I have been a member of Phil's site for three years and counting, and my advice is that all investing takes time. There are o shortcuts, no secret way to riches. Same with Phil's site- you need time and patience to start benefitting fully from his advice. But it is often spot on and also very useful, especially to me as I try to keep a level head in this turbulent stock market environment.

Jordan

That was a quick double on the DIA calls. trailing stop in place.

Kwan

Phil, I don't know if I told you lately but you da man! I'm doing so much better following your guidelines. It's like you actually know what you are talking about. 8-) I've tried a lot of services and none of them are as comprehensive or honest AND successful. I appreciate all youz other guys/gals input as well…learning tons as a relative newbie to this game.

Aclend

Phil / TNA – On Monday you put out the TNA BCS 41/47. As I mentioned I work during market hours so on Tuesday morning on my way out the door (premarket) I put in an advanced TOS '1st trigger sequence' order to fill the BCS. I can control the entry using this method vs. the vertical entry that TOS allows for the BCS. I filled the June 41 long call but never filled the 47 short call. I let that ride into today. OMG ..TNA popped 7.5%!… the $3.60 entry is almost a double! Tomorrow will be a OCO bracket to get out of TNA before Ben speaks. I should be able to preserve 85% – 100% on the trade. For the income portfolio plays in my IRA's, doing very well… I do like collecting premium! Well done and thanks!

JFawcett

I have followed a lot of Phil's picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines. Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account. Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don't see Phil's postings for an extended period.

Brenteaz

Phil/ I hope the next 5 year bear market will be as much fun and as profitable as this 5 year bull market. For those who survived 2008/2009, and who imbibed the wisdom of PSW, what a time it has been. Good to have you by my side. I think you are selling yourself short – you need to triple your prices :)

Winston

Nice intraday trading calls this week Phil. You have me hooked on trading SPY options analogously to your DIA moves. I paid some tuition the last few weeks but I think I have the hang of it. Don't be greedy and be happy with 0.05 to 0.10 and sometimes you're lucky with much bigger moves. Thanks for the training!

TmDecay

By the way thank you Phil for the DNDN idea. 3x till this morning and will 4x my small investment by next OE THANKS !!!!

Microflux

I love volatile days like this when you can make a bunch of money on these big swings. As long as you have Phil on your side calling the bottoms and the tops of course.

craigsa620

Thx Phil. Lightly moving in the bullish direction. Took PFE for $14.35 and sold the Jan 11 C/P for $2.85 giving me a net entry below Mar 09 low. And I bought back those calls on BTU and JPM I asked about the other day and am leaving them uncovered for now, so feeling better. Still just learning the rhythm.
In the three months I have been using your system, my little portfolio is up 9.9%, so not only am I learning, but I am APPLYING that knowledge, and it's paying off. Thanks.

Hoss

Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

Ether

It was a nice day thanks to your help! Made over $1100 shorting TF every time it came up near 1260 and even more by going long oil before inventory under $46 and then waited patiently for the spike up into the close where I shorted it at 47.70 or so. Phil you gave me a road map and I simply followed the signs along the way.

Craigsa620

I don't post much, but I guess this morning has brought me out. This site has made me tens of thousands, every year since I have become a member. It took me nearly two years devoting 3 hours per day to get on the ball, and actually understand portion sizing, and which trades fit my personal trading style. Before that I spent at least two years working on Buffet style fundamental investing. (Intellegent Investor, Security Analysis, ect.). This site really will teach you amazing things if you just pay attention. Literally it has changed my day to day life, has allowed my family and I to move back to the U.S. from overseas with confidence even with a paycut at my day job, and literally put me in a different league financially. Seriously my life and my children's is better because of this site.

Knightpilot

I like the retirement picks too. The futures trading is certainly more sexy, but the boring retirement picks are the ones that consistently make me money.

jjennings

There are a lot of us that have been here a long time and we all learn something everyday. Just keep asking questions, there are a lot of smart people here and they are willing to help and then of course, you have Phil.

Jr Mints

Phil, those OIH $80 p that you recommended last week for ~$1 are now worth $5.50!

Greg

Phil, i wanted to thank you again for helping me protect future stock allocations at work - finally, i feel like i am owning my own destiny with stocks vs. letting the market dictate what you get – thanks again.

Probably about 10% lower and yesterday's 8% drop in oil is a good indicator of how fast the "value" can come out of the markets – or any other asset you think is "stable" these days. There are still MANY signs of Global Economic Weakness, including Japan's negative GDP, which we noted yesterday. Even worse, Japan's Central Bank owns $5Tn worth of assets – the entire GDP of the country, including 45% of all Government bonds paying near 0% interest that will quickly become worthless if rates rise.

“The Bank of Japan’s policy is clearly not sustainable. The BOJ would suffer losses if it would have to raise interest rates to, say, two percent,” said Hidenori Suezawa, a fiscal analyst at SMBC Nikko Securities. “Also, in case of emergencies, such as a natural disaster or a war, the BOJ won’t be able to finance government bonds any longer.”

The BOJ has also been a very aggressive buyer of Japanese stocks and is now the largest holder of most of the Nikkei 225 stocks – over 10% on average. This buying spree pushed the Nikkei up from 16,000 when Abe and Koroda unleashed this mad shceme in order to reverse that 20% correction.

Well, what if the 20% correction was correct and Japanese stocks, in an aging population with Government debts that exceed 250% of their GDP, are really only worth Nikke 16,000. That means that, at 24,000, 33% of the money the BOJ spent to prop up the market was wasted and that's very likely the case as the BOJ shouldn't have to be a buyer and their actions created a false sense of demand for Japanese stocks and artificially raised the prices and those prices, in turn, encouraged other Global markets to move higher and now the whole World is a good 10% (still) too expensive but Japan has barely corrected 10% and easily has another 10% to go (19,500) before anything like real buyers begin to show up.

It's not even possible for the BOJ to unwind their positions, they'd destroy the market with way too much supply of stock – much as oil has recently plunged on over-supply. A 10% drop in the BOJ's assets would be a $500Bn loss in a $5Tn economy or 10% negative GDP in a year and yesterday we were fretting over 1% – those were the days!

Our own Fed has also been a buyer of assets but not so much our stock market – there seem to be plenty enough fools rushing in to buy that at any price. And again, I'm not really a bear – I just think too many stocks are far too expensive to justify entire indexes still trading within 10% of their all-time highs. Even that is misleading as there's an assumption that all-time highes are justified just because they were hit but you may recall paying $140 a barrel for oil in the summer of Bush and yet, today it's $55.

Was oil ever worth $140 a barrell or were people wrong at the time? Was GE (GE) ever worth $58, now it's $8, was Amazon (AMZN) worth $2,100, now $1,644? In our Member Chat Room, we were just discussing the need to re-short Chipotle (CMG) as they come back to test $500. Our Long-Term Portfolio's position on CMG is 20 of the 2020 $460/580 bull call spreads that we paid net $105,700 for but we're not actually that bullish on CMG – that position came from the profits of a much lower spread we cashed in and we flipped to the 2020 spread to cover short calls we sold last time CMG was up this high.

Just because we like a stock, doesn't mean we're blind to it's true value. $500 on CMG is a $14Bn market cap but CMG only made $176M last year and, in 3 quarters this year, they have made $140M, so on track for the same so $14Bn is about 80 times their earnings – which is a bit much for a fast-food franchise (MCD trades at 27x earnings and that's way over their usual sub-20x).

Chipotle was spun out of McDonald's, who bought the chain in 1998, when they had 16 restaurants and built them to 500 restaurants before spinning them out in Jan, 2006. Chipotle was founded in 1993 so it took them 5 years to build up to 16 restaurants and then, backed by one of the largest companies on the planet, another 8 years to get to 500 stores and now, 12 years later, they have 2,461 stores.

Why is that important? Because even with all the money in the world and a red-hot concept that was sweeping the nation 10 years ago – it took Chiptole essentially 20 years to get to $14Bn so, EVEN IF they come up with another great idea and EVEN IF it grows as fast as CMG and EVEN IF it all goes perfectly, they are still about 20 years from adding another $14Bn in market cap and that makes paying 80 times their current earnings INSANE when MCD and others only costs you 27 times earnings.

You can fool some of the people all of the time and you can fool all of the people some of the time but you CAN'T fool all of the people all of the time and that is why things like this are simply unsustainable – it's just a question of when the investors realize it.

That's why we cashed in our original calls when CMG hit $500 (and put on the current spread to cover the short calls which we've since bought back) and now that CMG is back on the crazy train – we can sell 10 of the Jan $485 calls for $26, collecting $26,000 against our $105,700 spread or about 25% over the next 65 days. If we can do 6 of those sales over the next 12 months, that would generate $156,000 and whatever value was left on our $105,700 spread would be bonus money. Not bad for a year's work!

We LOVED CMG when it was beaten down over contamination scares, we were sure that would pass and CMG would head back over $400 but $500 – PLEASE – that's just silly! So we turned our longs into shorts but, because investors are silly, we hedge with a long-term cover. Very simple concept. It's the same with many stocks we have. Back on Sept 26th, we put out a Top Trade Alert featuring 9 similar trade ideas to take us through the correction with the goal of making $109,000 by the January expirations including that CMG position (but we bought back the short calls when CMG tested $400 and now we'll sell new calls) and the smaller trades are also on track – I'll do a full review of those next week but this week November options expire on Friday so we will be reviewing our other positions first.

Anyway, my point is that things are still very expensive and this morning we're popping on bullish rumors about China Trade Talks but we're still going to keep our hedges as I'd rather lose money on them than not be hedged and lose money on our longs if things turn lower. Japan wasn't even one of our main concerns last month – now it is and, if the Trade War isn't resolved soon – China will move up the list of BIG problems.

On a positive note, Brexit seems to be moving along to a resolution and that's one worry off the table – so we have that going for us. Don't forget – Powell is spreaking after the close today and it's probably not a good day to have a rally if you want the head of the Fed to change his mind about raising rates… just saying…

We're not doing a Webinar today because I have to go to the Cannabis Convention in Las Vegas (officially, the Marijuana Business Conference) so I'll be leaving early today but I'll take plenty of notes and look for investing opportunities to share. If I have a chance, I'll do some live comments for the Chat Room too.

We're considering setting up a $20M+ fund next year specifically to invest in the Cannabis Sector – let us know if you have an interest in participating (contact Greg) and, of course, it will only be for accredited investors (sorry). If you have qualification forms, we'll be able to contact you post-conference with some early details.

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I thank you for the years of being my teacher, always took the time to answer my questions.
You are the BEST !

QCMike

Phil, I followed your investing ideas in LTP quite closely. It seems your insightful fundamental analysis knowledge serves you v. well. I get entertained and they are profitable.

Investwizard

Thanks to your teaching and guidance, I was able to make a killing on my /TF shorts. I averaged into 12 shorts at 1252 and got out of 6 at 1242 and 6 more at 1235. Last week I did the same with /CL, though I got out too early and left $2 on the table. Thank you!

Japarikh

The wonderful resource that Phil has created for us and nourished by its members is so powerful in what it can teach us going forward, but also what we can learn from the past. I never say it often enough, but Phil – thanks for all the work you do for us.

Winston

Phil – I wanted to tell you how much of a privilege it is to learn from your every day. You are a shining beacon in the life of so many investors. You have assembled probably the best group of people in the history of financial blogging and you, yourself have done more to help investors in the last 6 months than all previous financial advisors combined.

StJeanLuc

Hey Phil, Your HOV suggestion about 3 months ago basically paid for my Philstockworld subscription for years to come. My average cost is about $1.

Ether

I can't believe it. After 2 Months of reading every post of every section on this site, the light bulb finaly went on. I was begining to think this was beyond me capacity to understand. Thanks Guys. Specifically Phil, Pharm, Cap, Matt. Im still Green as a leprechaun but I pulled the trigger on that SRS Vertical you laid down yesterday Phil. Very Clever. Now if I can just figure how to roll I migh make some money. Thanks for sharing, This community you have here is quite remarkable.

Zucko

As a retired stockbroker from a major Canadian brokerage firm, I can tell you I would never had access to these type of trade ideas, especially the hedges.
Just closed out a July TZA 40/45 call spread today for a 271% gain in less than a month. I would have normally let that run but yesterday Phil commented to another member something to the effect that "you put down a $1 for a $5 upside, now that you are up 250% you have $2.5 in and you are hoping for a double."
Just closed out a USO July $38 put that Phil suggested yesterday for a 49% one day gain.
Thanks,
Bob

RJK

Phil, you are the man. My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG. TSR is another winner. Just waiting for the TSLA short now!

Rookie IRA Investor

Market manipulation…. One of the things I've gained from this site is the concept of market manipulation. I never thought it was so prevalent, but now I know it is. I actually consider its effect when I make trades. Several days ago, when AAPL was moving toward 220 I sold 210 calls. My reasoning was that they will probably pin this month at 210. They came in big time as the stock moved ever closer to 210. I agree with Phil's comment that one of the things we need to do is find out what they are manipulating, and how, and hitch a ride. They are doing this with several equities. I've actually seen one article describing several equities that were being manipulated to pin at expiration each month, and describing how it was done, and of course Phil has described it well. In some ways it's easier to figure this out than it is a ‘normal' market behavior, and thus easier to make money in certain equities.

Iflantheman

BTW Phil, I wanted to relate a conversation I had with my business partner yesterday. I told him that I have been much more relaxed about my investments ever since I joined your site. It's funny how a 15-20% cushion does to your nerves. My returns have increased dramatically and my risk diminished. Many thanks for the guidance and patience. Good thing I am doing better financially as you might have increased my life expectancy as well!

StJeanluc

Thank you Phil for this site – the trade discussions on PSW are mind boggling. Future trading while learning to be a value investor. Priceless

Joseph

I have been very fortunate over the years as an investor. Last year was on of my best in terms of percentage gains. I have to attribute much of this success to my membership in PSW which gave me the best education available anywhere when it comes to the understanding of option trading , discipline and general trading strategies. I will be forever grateful to Phil and the many "highly skilled" traders that have offered their advice.

Gel1

Phil - I LOVE these futures trades at random hours! I wasnt able to get in on the 612 part but if I had it wouldve been 130$ (2.6%) on a 5k contract in less than 30 minutes. I know you have to sleep, spend time with fam, ect but Im just letting you know that your posts after hours/late at night has made people who followed them a decent chunk of change. Thank you, we appreciate it!

Jromeha

Phil: well, often you say, just for FUN, great comment, TXS,
closed 2 SKF positions, one with 10 % , the other with 6 % gain,

RMM

I have to say, hands down, this is one of the best educational experiences I've had in my life. I've even gotten my wife (accountant) into the webinars and she wants to master this concept of selling premium and making smart, conservative investment decisions. She'll eventually use this knowledge to manage her clients' wealth and make smart investment choices for them. Bib big thanks Phil!!

AmalfiCoast

Man, what a week: Bought C at 1.40, sold half at 1.59 (relatively big position), another quarter at 3.04 just now. Ran SKF down from 270 with one April put, still holding some 115's expiring in a couple days. I'm going to gamble this position like a champion Friday. Bought FAS at all sorts of levels and started cashing out. Long HOV, stock and some nickel calls for fun - Mocha up your buy-out from 5 to 8 and that's 10,900% return for the May-2.50's . Ha!

Biodieselchris

The strategy you have laid out pretty much mirrors much of my trading activity. I also mix in some momentum plays and "drop dead" bargains that come across my radar. My YTD trading profit is 63%. Back in March when Phil said "unless you think the world is coming to an end, then NOW is the time to start taking positions in Buy/Writes with the VIX so high." I jumped in with both feet - ( thanks, again Phil)

Chaps

I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10. Information and great commentary are abound. The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly.

Kustomz

Don't expect to get rich quick here, but you can get easy 30 - 50 % per year, just by buying good stocks at discount (as we often discuss), selling monthly premiums of calls and puts.

Tchayipov

I subscribed to Phils Stock World full service for a year or so and found that it was extremely helpful. Now I just get the Stock World Weekly summary, which I find invaluable.
Phil does not baby people and certainly can't make someone into a successful stock operator who does not make the effort on their own behalf, but he is extremely generous with his time in answering newbie questions.
Although I found it difficult to follow and implement all his trades in real time, what I did find was that once you got the hang of his methodology and way of thinking, you could work out your own trades and be quite successful. Even just using his patent Rule Number One* alone is worth its weight in gold. Rule Number Two is even better.

Rookie IRA Investor

Phil, have to thank you for saving me today. I think the discipline I have learned from this site has helped me as much if not more than the actual picks.

Rustle123

Phil - Another excellent teaching article - when you write like that it blows me away. Thank you!
I had the ideas from earlier articles but what I didn't have was enough understanding. The familiarity of ideas through repetition, re-working, revision - over time - the variation, the pulling out of implications - it all contributes to understanding and mostly thats on the student - but a good teacher (worth their weight in gold) makes understanding a pleasure.
I wanted to learn about trading options because it makes my brain feel better - fitter, healthier. Actually mostly it makes me happy to think about the trade and trading options.
You are a good teacher and I know that or I wouldn't value the subscription the way I do. It pays for itself through the pleasure of understanding alone.

Redfern1

Being on this board is better than successfully completing the Times crossword. Phil's panoply of comments manage to excite, illuminate, frustrate, exasperate, confuse, enlighten, outrage, invigorate and stupefy (and that's par for the morning session only!). But goddammit, it's addictive, informative and when it all goes right extremely profitable.

Winston

Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips. His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p/e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money. As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach.

Zeroxzero

Brilliant covering of the arcane, the profane , but never the mundane!
Easy to understand the reason for your huge following, Phil, and why you have become a must read on my daily agenda. Please accept my complete appreciation.

Seeking Truth

You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

Dclark41

Phil-
I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

Acd54

The virtuous trade / Phil throws out so many ideas, that understandably he rejects all calls for a running total of how all ""quoted"" ideas are performing – it would be unworkable. But without such a list, I think it behooves us to call out the trades that have made a difference. January 13 expiration is going to be a big month for me as a significant number of sold put positions will expire worthless. One example of the power of patience and leaving well alone:
VLO – sold Jan 13, 17.5 puts for $3.45 – and this trade was placed in August 2011. VLO is currently a tad over $35!
And as time went by, and I got more experienced – with the help of Phil and the contributions from board members, I started selling short term puts and calls around this position. Sometimes having to roll, sometimes doubling down but always knowing what I was getting into, and feeling very calm and focussed that whatever happened I could handle it. And if I couldn't then there was always Phil to lend a helping hand. All in all, my profits since August 2011 would qualify as a tidy addition to any earnings from the day job.
Thank you Sir.

Phil, I have an IBM NOV $130 shout Put expiring in 2 days. It was .90 now $9.15. Been selling straddles on IBM for a while now and this one got me. What is a good roll? Jan 2020 $120? Maybe a silly question, but how does this work, I know the transaction records a loss, but if I roll this trade out to 2020 and it expires worthless, in theory, did I lose? TIA

As noted, we're not having the Webinar today as I'll be at the Marijuana Business Conference and I wish my Dad were alive to hear that one! We (New Age/PSW) have a lot of meetings set up and also, it seems, a lot of parties we're supposed to go to so this is going to be a very rough couple of days for me tomorrow and Friday. And no, I don't smoke anymore (I'm tired of waking up on the floor) though really I quit when I had my kids and now they are off in college I guess I can be less responsible again.

That's what happened. I smoked a lot in college but not too much after (movies, concerts) but then one time we were out at a show and Maddie was with a sitter (about 1 yr old) but she began throwing up a lot (turns out she's lactose intolerance) and we had to go to the hospital and it's not like I couldn't deal with it but I was so mad at myself for not being 100% when my kid needed me that it was the last time I smoked.

I have a good excuse tonight and tomorrow night as I have to get up 3am for work (Vegas time), so I can turn anything down, but I can't make any promises about Friday night… Also, wouldn't it be irresponsible of me to at least sample our products?

Anyway, I'm leaving about 2pm, EST and likely the same tomorrow but I'll check in from the conference if I see anything interesting – too bad we don't have SnapChat but I don't actually even know how it works. We'll be able to meet with people from all over the country and Ken (CEO of New Age) and I will begin a 6-month process of selecting the initial investments for our new Cannabis Fund.

Meanwhile, New Age just got approval to double up their facility in LA, the first in the county to clear the process with others months behind us and we have way more orders than we can fill so looking to triple up shortly – very exciting. Remember, New Age doesn't grow pot or sell pot – we process pot into THC and CDC oils, which sell for $9,000 per liter and it takes about 20 pounds of pot to make a liter so you'd think the math doesn't work ($200/oz retail for pot) but it's cheap in bulk and the margins are roughly 30% so it's all about making more and more liters for us.

Since we're a middle-man operation with industry-known expertise, our main goal is to partner up with growers and distributors around the country and just become their go-to manufacturer and, since manufacturers are in very short supply (especially ones that can pass strict medical requirements) we are making deals where we own a bit of the businesses we supply – so we don't have to worry about them switching manufacturers as the market matures over time.

It's a simple plan, it's like being the only guy who sells shovels and pans during a gold rush and, rather than rip off our clients to make quick money, we're giving them what they need at a great price (we still make money) in exchange for a permanent percentage of their sales – like Kevin on Shark Tank!

So that will be my fun project this week and we have to review the portfolios too!

Big Chart – Same as yesterday but every day below the 200 dma makes it harder to get back over and NYSE officially death-crossing today, RUT right behind…

Dow 24,300 with a weak bounce at 24,800 and a strong bounce at 25,300

S&P 2,640 with a weak bounce at 2,710 and a strong bounce at 2,780

Nasdaq 6,870with a weak bounce at 7,080 and a strong bounce at 7,230

Russell 1,485 with a weak bounce at 1,530 and a strong bounce at 1,575

Nas went green on the weak bounce this morning, popping 40 to 6,898 so we'll see if it sticks. RUT at 1,529 so we'll see if they have trouble at 1,530 or not.

Caravan/StJ – What caravan? I don't remember any caravan…

Cryptocurrency/StJ – What cryptocurrency? Where do you come up with these crazy things?

BABA still going up. $145s are now $6 in the money at $6.60 so stop is now $6 on our last 5 calls in the STP.

Officially, in the LTP, we're going to sell 10 of the Jan $485 calls for $26 ($26,000) against our 20 long spreads. I struggled with selling 15 of the $500s at $19 ($28,500) but, just in case it spikes up, the 10 shorts will be easier to do a 2x roll and, on the way down, we can cover 10 more if CMG looks extra weak and turn it into a $50,000 round!

/NG longs are off the table at $4.50, of course. That was our NEXT YEAR goal! /NGV19s are still good at $2.76 but I'd keep a stop at $2.74.

/NG/Sun – I think, ultimately, we should be around $4-$4.50 so anytime /NGis low, I don't mind playing it long. Given LNG exports this year and trends into the winter – I think we'll see $3.50 at some point this year or early winter and I think the day's of $2.50 and even $2.75 may be passing.

Here's why: US /NG prices are the lowest in the World by a mile but LNG lets us export it but it also lets other countries with land-locked /NG (Russia, China, OPEC) export it too so, in the short run – our /NG prices will move up towards the global $4.50 avg but, in the longer run, there will be a global glut and the whole thing will collapse. But that longer run is 4-5 years so no worries for now.

I know I say a lot of boring, wonky stuff but that's where these fundamental calls come from!

IBM/Grass – The Nov $130 put is $8.25 at $121.75 so that's fair, right. GREEDY not to take a 90% off the table and hopefully it's a cheap lesson. The 2020 $115 puts are $10 so you can roll there or be more aggressive if you are feeling brave and can spare the margin. Not sure what you mean by loss but, though we say "roll" for shorthand, you're just taking the loss in the short Nov $130s and then making a new trade to sell the 2020 $115s (or whatever) as a new trade. Though you put $10 back in your pocket – you take a very real $7 (or whatever) loss now and you still have a similar margin obligation.

See, Yodi likes it more aggressive!

Good call Albo!

/RB/Lionel – Thank goodness!

CHK/Soma – I can't believe it's just sitting there but, then again, so are the long-term /NG contracts so I guess people don't believe the long-term story yet. Our LTP position is:

Short Call

2020 17-JAN 5.00 CALL [CHK @ $3.56 $0.00]

-50

1/8/2018

(429)

$-4,750

$0.95

$-0.49

$-0.25

$0.46

$0.02

$2,450

51.6%

$-2,300

Short Put

2020 17-JAN 4.00 PUT [CHK @ $3.56 $0.00]

-50

1/8/2018

(429)

$-6,000

$1.20

$-0.03

$1.17

$0.01

$175

2.9%

$-5,825

Long Call

2020 17-JAN 2.00 CALL [CHK @ $3.56 $0.00]

50

2/9/2018

(429)

$7,000

$1.40

$0.31

$1.71

-

$1,550

22.1%

$8,550

Despite being cursed out for it just the other day, I still like it, Fundamentally and that's why it didn't bother me that it went out of favor for a while. Smart traders see these things as opportunities but you have to ignore a lot of noise when you play cyclicals while they are in a downtrend (you know, when they are cheap to buy). Don't forget though, they just made an acquisition and will still have rough quarters ahead unless /NG simply stays over $4, in which case all is well. To me, they did exactly what I would do – they bought an out-of-favor asset cheaply while cluless critics sat on the sidelines saying "FU" and downgrading them simply because they spent money when the thing they wanted to buy was at a low.

CHK – They are chugging along under $5 but our goal is only $5 so we're good and this is good for a new trade as it pays $5,000 and is currently net $925 so $4,075 more if all goes well.

That was our last STP review on this spread, which is still even:

Long Call

2020 17-JAN 3.00 CALL [CHK @ $3.74 $0.18]

25

1/8/2018

(429)

$4,500

$1.80

$-0.55

$1.80

$1.26

$0.14

$-1,363

-30.3%

$3,138

Short Call

2020 17-JAN 5.00 CALL [CHK @ $3.74 $0.18]

-25

1/8/2018

(429)

$-2,375

$0.95

$-0.43

$0.53

$0.08

$1,063

44.7%

$-1,313

Short Put

2020 17-JAN 4.00 PUT [CHK @ $3.74 $0.18]

-25

1/8/2018

(429)

$-3,000

$1.20

$-0.13

$1.08

-

$313

10.4%

$-2,688

Less upside but cheaper entry.

/NGV19/Japar – I had them from $2.60 and got stopped out at the last run to $2.80 (early Oct) and missed the re-entry so, fortunately, I flipped to a few /NGs on the dip back to $3.20 but all out now at $4.50 and, frankly, no longer interest in /NG as the reason I liked it (and made it my trade of the year in 2016) was that I thought $2 at the time was ridiculous and $4.50 was my goal then and still is now – even if it goes over so the next time I'll be into /NG is when it's $9 or maybe $3 but time to move on and find something else that's fun to play with - like Silver!

Phil….check out my friends at Laurelcrest booth 3909. They own Pharma Hemp in Europe and sell a ton of isolate (hemp) here in the states. There company will be going public in January. Michael Bernstein is the principal….

UNG, in fact, was our 2016 trade of the year so imagine how much fun Winston could have had showing what a fool I was for doubling down when it hit $2 as the stock fell to $1.75. Could have found dozens of comments of me saying "I'd stick to the plan and buy more" even though it kept going lower.

UNG was another one that did a split – a 1/4 reverse split this Jan. We closed the old LTP position but we had 50 UNG 2020 $5 calls at $2.15 and we had 30 short 2020 $10 puts at $3.82 so that would be:

12.5 2020 $20 calls at $8.60 (now $11.30)

7.5 2020 $40 puts at $15.28 (now $11.30)

So that's up $3,375 on the calls and $2,985 on the calls and we could sell the $30 calls now for $4.80 to put another $6,000 in our pockets and then close the $40 puts and sell 5 2021 $30 puts for $5.40 ($2,700) instead which leaves us with little downside risk and another $12,500 to pocket if UNG stays over $30.

If all goes well, our Trade of the Year will make $40,500 on a $9,500 investment with the worst case being you own 5,000 shares of UNG at $8.95 ($44,750), so it's a 90% return on risk (if you believe the Natural Gas ETF can go to zero). UNG is currently $6.51, so the trade is still makeable (we have an aggressive upside target) but this may be the last time as the first US export shipment of natural gas left the port yesterday.

Keep in mind this is our 2016 Trade of the Year(UNG, not LNG) and our Institutional Clients andPremium Members are already long on this trade and usually you do not have a chance to get our prices by the time we're into February but, on UNG – it's actually LOWER than where we got in and that's a huge potential opportunity but, of course, consult your financial adviser to make sure it's a good fit for your portfolio.

UNG – No point in staying in it if we don't roll the calls. We have 40 of the 2019 $6 calls, now $1.40 ($5,600) and the $4 calls are $2.60 so let's spend $1.20 to pick up $2 in strike that's in the money, right? If we could then sell the $9 calls (0.50) for $1 or better, I'd be happy with the spread – so that's our plan.

UNG – 2020s are out here so we can adjust. The 40 2019 $4 calls are $2.60 ($10,400) and we can roll those to 80 2020 $5 ($2.15)/$8 (0.95) bull call spreads at $1.20 ($9,600) and we can sell 30 Jan $7 calls for 0.33 ($999) because, if we collect $1,000 per Q just doing 1/3 covers, we pretty much pay for the spread and the rest is just a bonus (up to $24,000). That's great as a new trade! Our 30 short 2019 $9 puts are $2.70 ($8,100) but we sold them for $2.15, so no big loss. Let's take that loss ($1,650) and sell 40 of the 2020 $7 puts for $1.10 ($4,400) and all is well again.

That was before the 1/4 split in the LTP review (before we closed that LTP) so it would have been:

That makes the natural gas ETF, UNG, our Trade of the Year and the way we are playing it is:

Buy 100 UNG Jan $5 calls for $2.65 ($26,500)

Sell 100 UNG Jan $10 calls for 0.65 ($6,500)

Sell 50 UNG 2018 $8 puts for $2.10 ($10,500)

That works out to a net cost of $9,500 and pays $50,000 if UNG is above $10 in January and stays above $8 into Jan 2018. Worst case is you end up owning 5,000 shares of UNG at net $8.95 ($44,750), which is about $2.40 on /NG contracts. Best case is you make a $40,500 profit on a $9,500 cash bet, which is 426% back on your cash!

In Jan 2017 UNG was $32, so $8 and 100 x $3 was a return of $30,000 when we closed it in 2017 but then we went back in on a dip to the above re-trade (like we did with WPM and LB – so a new normal for our Trades of the Year).

We also had the F trade, which was a runner up but we nailed that one (though it looks expensive now, F was over $12 in Jan, when the trade expired):

Another trade we really like down here is Ford (F), who have fallen back to $11.40, well below our $15 target. The US fleet has an average age of over 11 years so we're only mid-way through the replacement cycle and our play on F would be:

Buy 100 F 2018 $9.75 calls for $2.45 ($24,500)

Sell 100 F 2018 $12 calls for $1.35 ($13,500)

Sell 50 F 2018 $9.75 puts for $1.50 ($7,500)

The net cash outlay is $3,500 and there is an obligation to buy 5,000 shares of F at net $10.10 ($50,500) if it slips below $9.75, which is down 14% from where we are now. If all goes well and F gets back over $12 then the short puts expire worthless and the trade returns $22,500 for a $19,000 profit, which is 542% on cash in less than 2 years.

For people who like to own stock, it's also possible to play F the following way:

Buy 5,000 F shares at $11.40 ($57,000)

Sell 50 2018 $9.75 calls for $2.50 ($12,500)

Sell 50 2018 $9.75 puts for $1.50 ($7,500)

Here we're laying out $37,000 but the advantage is that we will collect a 0.60 dividend ($3,000) in each of the two years of this trade for a bonus $6,000. Our net entry is just $7.40 per share and, if we are called away at $9.75, we profit another $2.35/share ($11,750) for a total profit of $17,750 over the trade (48%) which is very nice for people who prefer to own stocks and not gamble on options. The nice thing about this trade, of course, is F can drop 14% and you still make your full 48% as it's a very conservative target.

It's also worth noting that in both of these cases, simply making a short put sale puts money in your pocket and gives you a tremendous discounted entry on the stock (or you keep the cash) – that's worth discussing as part of our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy.

Caravan/Yodi – I thought that was your RV I saw coming up from Mexico!

Wow, what happened to the rally? Silly buyers, tricks are for Trump!

Thanks Willsons, will do.

AAPL/Yodi – Almost at goal ($184) but I'm not going to jump in while the Nas is primed for a 10% drop.

Set up an armchair play on VOD Bought stock @ 20.56 and sold the Jan 21/20 strangle for 1.30 Monthly return 3.9%per month. VOD is on the low side of the channel and pays a six month div of 1.22 every six month. Small entry

We might need to learn new lessons – fading the opening rally has worked well the past week or so! Dangerous lessons though but as I have been saying, I don't think that we are done going down yet. Too much uncertainty – it would be nice to have a clearer message from Washington but we might have to wait until January.

For what it is worth set up an armchair on CPB on 11/9. Gone up but still playable buy stock and sell Dec 39/40 strangle. I sold 38/39 and as you can see the 39 is already ITM but bought the stock for 38.43!

Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA), who's poised to become chair of the House Financial Services Committee in January, says easing banking regulations will stop when she heads the committee.

"Make no mistake, come January, in this committee the days of this committee weakening regulations and putting our economy once again at risk of another financial crisis will come to an end," Waters commented before Randal Quarles, Federal Reserve vice chair of oversight for the banking industry, made his remarks in a Congressional hearing.

Since President Trump took office in January 2017, the administration has sought to lighten regulatory requirements on banks imposed by Dodd-Frank reforms that were adopted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.

Clarify/Rookie – Well you have to clarify what I need to clarify. We had a big discussion yesterday of why I think we're in the middle of a 20% correction (from the top) so 10% more to go. AAPL $184 is their own 20% correction line from $230 (ie. $230 x 0.8 = $184) which I predicted ages ago and, since AAPL drives the Nasdaq, a 20% correction in AAPL is very likely to go along with a 20% correction in the Nasdaq from 7,700 x 0.8 = 6,160 and we were at 7,000 (ish) this morning, which was about the halfway point so another 700 points (10%) left to drop. Not sure how else I can say it – 1/10th?

CMG/Dave – No, if you missed our good entry on the bull spread, I don't think I'd get into it from scratch just to sell short calls. I suppose the 2021 $475 $100/560 ($67) at $33 is not a bad spread and then you can sell 1/2x of the Jan $480s for $24 so it's net $21 on the longs to start but, if CMG goes lower, you'll have to keep putting money into rolling down the longs to make sure your not too far above the short calls you sell. Also, don't forget this is a big margin trade if you don't have Portfolio Margin.

Well, I printed the portfolios on Friday and we haven't changed much and I don't have a good image capture on my portable system so I'm just going to use the Friday prints for the reviews but I'll be working off the current numbers – try not to be too confused. Also, as I'm in Vegas with just 3 screens and short on time (leaving at 2pm, EST), I'm just going to focus on the things that need to be changed or commented on – not going to comment on every single item.

Still, if I skip something you think does need a comment – say so.

First, I'm going swimming and then getting a bit – long day ahead!

I'm sure I'll get the STP done today but OOP, Butterfly and LTP will have to be done tomorrow and Friday.

I'm just doing tiny PSW "lite" trades on CMG since I don't usually trade it but I like Phil's analysis and underlying reasoning. Was short a few bull put spreads on the way up, and now with a few bear call spreads here. Maybe they'll pay for the Egg McMuffins next week.

Phil, serious question. At what point should I just decide to sell everything, and double down on Apple? I have a very large position, that was very well hedged with short calls that you recommended. But I'm very tempted to just sell the rest of my positions, and double down on my call spreads, to hopefully double up my account in the next two years. Idiotic? Or genius?

Well a lot of this selling seems to be related to Theresa May cancelling what people thought was going to be the announcement of a Brexit deal.

Dolf should have kept his accent (though I guess that wasn't his accent in Rocky).

AAPL/BDC – I doubt it but now we have to look for bounces off $184 from $330 so $46 is $9 bounces to $193 and $202 – if those fail – $150 might happen or, actually $161 is 30%.

PCG/BDC – We did a trade on them last time they failed. Last fire was good for a 20% hit to their stock price (there was $9Bn in damages) and there was a legitimacy to the recovery if it were a one-time thing but it's not a one-time thing and this time, possibly, they are criminally negligent in a much, much worse fire since they should have addressed the problem since last year. You can sell the 2021 $23 puts for $6.50 so net $16.50 is not so bad but I wouldn't go crazy buying these guys as there are going to be congressional hearings, lawsuits and all sorts of nasty stuff coming their way.

AAPL/Palotay – Well I said $184 was my point but, now that we're here, I would like to see the Nasdaq stop collapsing first. Tempting though it may be, you just shouldn't put all your eggs in one basket – even if it's the greatest basket on Earth and the basket has over $250Bn in cash inside it….

Meanwhile, I love how wrong Cramer and every other analyst were this morning when they were saying "of course we're rallying because we are so oversold". A 10% correction off a 200% rally (since 2009 lows) is NOT OVERSOLD – I can't believe even TA people are that dumb…

Pstas – Also the philosophy of Druckenmiller who averaged over 30 % per year for a long time. That's one reason I'm so heavy in CTL. Huge dividend, that management says they are comfortable with. Hope they're right !

AAPL/Palotay, Pstas – Actually, on reflection, I so regret not putting every penny I had into AAPL when they fell to $85 in 2009 and we did take big positions and I did bang the table on them for many months (and they were still our Stock of the Year in 2013, 2014 and 2015) - but that was pre 7:1 split so $12.14 in today's shares. I wonder if $184 will be $2,000 in 10 more years – doesn't seem likely ($10Tn?). $85 was simply stupidly cheap when it happened.

Woz/BDC – Well I do think they are rushing things because cars do have accidents and our legal and political system is simply not prepared for what will end up being "Killer Cars" that will be forced to make trolly car decisions pretty much every day, many times, somewhere in our country. This is one of the ways our total lack of ethical/philosophical education in this country is going to hurt our Global competitiveness.

Short-Term Portfolio Review (STP): Now we're at $311,832 so not much gained on this dip despite adding 50% more SQQQ longs. It was Friday the 2nd that I put up the portfolio snaps and we were at $309,840 then and the S&P was at 2,720 and now 2,703 so I guess we shouldn't have expected much change.

IBM – In the last review, we closed those short puts at $20 and added them to the LTP (2020 $145 puts at $23.20) so it's the LTP's problem now!

UGA – We added 30 Jan $28 ($2.00)/$31 ($0.80) bull call spreads and UGA is at $27.27 but the short calls are 0.55 so no point in buying them back – we'll just see how it plays out.

CELG – Back to the lows and the bull call spread is dead but it was anyway. We'll decide next week whether we want to add a bull call spread when we roll the short puts (2021 $75 puts are $14 so 1.5x will put money in our pocket and drop 12% off our target). We're in for a net $1,300 credit and only 5 so net $2.60 credit even if the spread dies worthless means net $72.40 is our put side entry. Even if we don't believe in them enough to add the bull spread – that's still pretty good!

DXD – a $70,000 hedge that's mostly in the money but showing just net $30,000 so $40,000 downside protection here.

SCO – That's hurting us and we have to roll but we think this is a good bottom so we're going to be aggressive and roll our 40 SCO short Nov $18 calls at $4 to 40 short SCO Jan $20 calls at $4 so we pick up $2 in strike without spending money. We could cut our exposure and sell 20 $20 puts for $2 (or split the trade into 20 puts and calls at that strike so both sides can't lose and we expose less) but, I don't think we stay below $60 so this should work and, if not, then we split.

SQQQ – We have 160 June $12s we bought for $3.50 (avg), now $4.25 and we have 80 short March $14 calls left from our last spread, those we sold for $1.25 and are now $2. Seems fine to me.

TSLA – Will pay us in full.

TZA – Still the same though now all in the money. It's a $40,000 spread currently priced at net $12,000 is so $28,000 upside protection there.

All in all, we're in good shape though the LTP has quickly given back the $70,000 it gained on the bounce so we are pretty much right back where we were two weeks ago and we're still waiting to see if those bounce lines break up or down. While I think down is more likely – the whole point of keeping the bounce chart is to take the thinking off the table and we don't get more bullish until the chart is green and we don't get more bearish unless it flips red.

Mj. I've been selling short callers on my 35 / 50 bcs with a 30 short put. I sell above 36 and 39 caller at 32 to 34. Then close out on pull backs. Two round trips so far. Just closed out my Jan 36 and 39 callers Now waiting for a spike again

Well, I said I'd try to report from the MJBizConference but that was a bad plan as I didn't have 10 seconds to breath once I got there. We had a meeting as soon as I was there and very little time to check out vendors – other than ones Ken needed to see to buy some big-assed processing machines but that was good for me, as I got a firm handle on the supply chain.

I think what struck me the most was the size and scope of the thing as it's both floors of the Las Vegas Convention Center with 10,000 people paying $700 a ticket to be there. Having gone to Comdex since Shelly had it in the actual Sands Hotel with 1,000 geeks paying $99 to attend, I'd say the MJ Industry is way bigger than Tech was in the early 90s – or at least a lot more profitable!

That's the strange thing about it – the ordinaryness of it. Same as any convention – Biz guys in suits cutting deals in side rooms on the floor and cards being exchanged by everyone and no real competition yet as there's a general sense (like tech in the 90s) that this is the future and there's going to be plenty for everyone.

BIG companies like Siemen's are selling multi-million Dollar processors and SO MANY START-UPS – only the problem is most of them are profitable already – but that was true with tech too in the old days – the tricky part is picking the eventual survivors this early in the game.

Do not short these companies and do not think this is a fad folks:

This is a large, professional business and there's still 42 states that have to legalize as well as 204 countries over time. Tech never had that issue constraining it's growth but it's not really a bad thing as it means this will be a slow, steady roll, with many, many opportunities over the next few decades.

Anyway, I'll be back there today for more meeting, etc. Hopefully I have some time to walk around this time. I went out for dinner with the New Age team and we have a breakfast meeting later (after the open). Dinner was over about 10 and those guys went off to Snoop Dog's party and I was very tempted but decided I'd better get back as I'd only have 4 hours to sleep by the time I got back to the hotel.

So that was the end of that 19-hour day – this will be day 2. Can't wait to go home and rest….

Speaking of growth, LNG just started shipping out of Corpus Christie – that's the 4th export terminal in the US and that means our LNG exports will ramp up another 33%.

Still a chance to get into the MJ ETF as yesterday knocked it back to it's lows

Meanwhile, markets are up a bit this morning but not very exciting so far. /YG and /SI with nice $9 and 0.09 pops with /SI winning at +$450 per contract with /YG gaining $289.80 so, if you didn't take the money and run yesterday at $1,215 and $14.20 (I was at the show), don't be silly and let it all fade away.

Oil $56.65 also off thr highs and /RB $1.56 with /BZ at $66.72 and Dollar 97.055.

Oh, one more thing about the MJ Biz – it's legal in Vegas now and people are smoking everywhere, of course but while waiting for all to assemble for dinner, there was a guy who was so wasted he fell down and the police came but it was no big deal and it was kind of funny as an EMT gave the guy a hug and some cold water and told him he was going to fine and just relax as two policemen watched over (he was a rappy-looking black guy, late 20s) and, then, once he was better, the policewoman just wagged her finger at him and sent him on his way.

While the EMT was working I asked the policewoman if they got a lot of that but she said not more than drunks but she liked the stoned people better because they tended to be less scrappy and far less messy. She said it's mostly out of towners with not enough experience with legal doses (stronger than street stuff) overdoing it – something I found true in Amsterdam as well.

It really is a new World out there.

Oh yeah, that's another trend I see in Vegas – much more munchie food. More places to grab a slice of pizza or a quick bite to satisfy cravings for stoned people with food getting the lead on alcohol for the first time I've ever seen in this town.

And lots and lots of frozen drink places – that's something I have mind to bring to Florida as they have taken over Vegas.

$15 bucks gets you 3 shots in a 32 oz slurpee, usually in those tall plastic things for some reasons (the straw still lives in Vegas). Additional shots are $4-5 and most places don't have coke – I had to go all the way over to the Luxor to get a Bourbon and Frozen Coke. It may be more liquor (not to New Yorker's) than a normal drink but the threat of brain freeze keeps you from drinking it too quickly.

These places also sell jello shots for $3-4 – many flavors. Like marijuana edibles – young people want to consume their alcohol in alternative formats!

I think these things are a gold mine as you are serving a minimum variety of drinks at double the price in a very small footprint. My biz idea at the moment is to buy the machine and either partner with existing bars or possibly rent a corner of a bar and see if we can make it work on the Florida beaches..

If that goes well and we can show numbers, there's hundreds of places we can franchise out to.

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