I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG.
Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching?
Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years.
Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.OldYanksFan

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Monday, January 7, 2013

Swapping Russ Canzler for Chris Dickerson

When I saw that the Yankees had picked up Russ Canzler off waivers I was intrigued. However, when it turned out to come at the likely loss of Chris Dickerson I was a bit less happy about it. But let’s take a look at what CAIRO thinks about the swap.

Here are Canzler’s CAIRO percentile forecasts.

%

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

GDP

HBP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

BR

BRAR

80%

480

435

60

119

32

3

20

67

5

2

49

111

6

6

.274

.362

.500

.376

75

20

65%

440

398

52

104

27

2

16

57

4

2

42

107

7

4

.261

.340

.462

.351

60

10

Baseline

400

362

44

90

22

1

13

49

3

3

35

102

8

3

.248

.319

.425

.326

47

1

35%

360

326

36

76

18

1

10

41

2

4

29

97

8

2

.235

.298

.387

.300

36

-6

20%

320

290

30

64

14

0

8

33

1

4

23

90

8

1

.221

.276

.349

.275

26

-11

And here are Dickerson’s.

%

PA

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

GDP

HBP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wOBA

BR

BRAR

80%

480

417

76

118

28

4

14

47

27

3

65

112

5

6

.283

.393

.473

.384

80

24

65%

440

382

66

103

23

3

11

40

23

4

56

108

6

5

.269

.370

.436

.359

64

14

Baseline

400

347

56

89

19

2

9

33

19

4

47

103

7

3

.256

.348

.399

.333

51

5

35%

360

313

47

76

15

1

7

28

15

5

39

98

8

2

.242

.325

.362

.308

39

-3

20%

320

278

39

63

12

1

5

22

11

5

32

91

8

1

.229

.302

.325

.283

28

-9

In a vacuum over 400 PA, Canzler doesn’t project as well as Dickerson. Of course, with an all left-handed starting OF, the more important consideration is their respective projected platoon splits.

Canzler

Dickerson

%

wOBA vs L

wOBA vs R

wOBA vs L

wOBA vs R

80%

.392

.370

.355

.390

65%

.366

.345

.331

.364

Baseline

.339

.320

.308

.338

35%

.313

.295

.284

.312

20%

.286

.270

.261

.287

In terms of runs, over 250 PA Canzler’s projected wOBA of .339 vs. LHP would be worth about 7 runs more than Dickerson’s projected wOBA of .308. Dickerson’s almost certainly the better defender and baserunner and could play CF, but the Yankees already have three outfielders that can play CF. The fact that Canzler can play the OF corners as well as 3B and 1B behind Kevin Youkilis whose health is a pretty significant concern in and of itself probably makes Canzler a more valuable piece of the roster.

Obviously we’re dealing with projectons and the inherent limitations therein, so there are huge error bars around all of this. So keep that in mind.

I’d like to see Dickerson get a chance somewhere (seems like a no-brainer for Houston) and think he’ll do pretty well if he gets that chance, but it seems to me that this was a pretty good move on its face.