Tuesday, 18 July 2017

During
the stale pageant commemorating the first anniversary of the failed coup
attempt, Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan and his acolytes demonstrated once
again their ability to turn reality on its head. George Orwell would be proud
of this very, very cynical performance.

He hailed the failure of the coup as
a victory for Turkish ‘democracy’ and yet another demonstration of Turkey’s ‘unity’ and
indomitable will to resist all enemies – foreign and domestic.

Even conceding that the followers of
the cleric Fethullah Gülen – who now lives in the United States -- were behind
the coup, one wonders how Erdoğan can talk about unity when his actions for the
past 12 months have done nothing but widen the existing deep divisions in
Turkey and destroy his already slim credibility abroad. He is furious that no
foreign leader is willing to give him the credit he thinks he deserves for ‘saving democracy’ in Turkey. He fails to
appreciate that replacing the democracy that existed in Turkey with one-man
rule is not the best way to get the appreciation and applause he thinks he so
richly deserves.

Under
the state of emergency that has been in place since the coup attempt – and just
extended for another three months -- thousands upon thousands of people have
been fired and the jails have been filled with people accused of being part of
a ‘terrorist’ organization. It’s important to understand that Erdoğan’s
definition of ‘terrorist’ is wide indeed. The ever-widening list of ‘terrorist’
organization includes the followers of Gülen, the Kurdish guerrilla group PKK,
the Kurds in Syria and Iraq who are effectively fighting ISIS, and many others.
The list also includes all those such as Amnesty International and opposition politicians
accused of ‘aiding’ terrorist groups.

President Erdoğan at the anti-coup rally

Erdoğan’s claims of national unity
were also shown to be hollow when at least half the voters rejected the
controversial referendum giving him absolute, dictatorial power. His narrow
victory, marred by serious claims of fraud, was much closer than he
anticipated.

Then there was the 250-mile march
from Ankara to Istanbul led by the opposition leader Kemal Kɩlɩçdaroğlu and
joined by thousands who marched under banners emblazoned simply with the word Justice. This unprecedented example of non-violent civil disobedience was in protest of
the arrest of an MP from Kɩlɩçdaroğlu’s party who, as a journalist, had the
temerity to publish a story with pictures about Turkey smuggling weapons to
radical groups in Syria.

When Erdoğan was warned that Gülen’s
people were taking over the judiciary he said that was no problem because they
‘shared the same qibla’ – the same
religion. In 2008 it was Gülenists (many of whom are now on the run or in jail
themselves) in the judiciary who fabricated evidence against current and former
army officers, journalists, academics and others who were thrown in jail on
charges of trying to overthrow Erdoğan’s government. This so-called evidence
was later shown to be merely a figment of someone’s imagination. Again, Erdoğan
did nothing to stop this abuse of judiciary power.

It was only in 2013 when the
Gülenists began probing serious corruption charges against certain cabinet ministers
and Erdoğan’s own family that relations between the two began to sour.
Gülenists in the police released several deeply embarrassing tape recordings of
the ministers and Erdoğan’s family discussing all the money they had amassed.
As if this wasn’t bad enough, the final split came when Gülen opposed Erdoğan’s
bumbling intervention in the Syrian civil war.Now, of course, the former close
ties and cooperation are being swept under the rug as hapless AKP spokespeople
are going around saying ‘Fetullah who? Never knew the guy’.

Kɩlɩçdaroğlu leading the Justice march from Ankara to Istanbul

Erdoğan’s commemoration
ceremonies rang hollow with the same stale rhetoric and the spontaneity of a
Stalinist politburo address. Same old, same old. The real star of the summer
political season was Kɩlɩçdaroğlu’s march, a truly spontaneous example of non-violent protest in Turkey. Many people equated it
to Gandhi’s Salt March in India in 1930 in protest of the British tax on salt. Erdoğan
was at times dismissive and then furious at his inability to stop this powerful
demonstration of civil non-violent disobedience. How do you arrest a
69-year-old man marching 250 miles in the heat of the summer during the Holy
Month of Ramadan carrying a one-word banner Justice?Many thousands
joined this march that ended July 9 with a massive rally in Istanbul.

It took another 18 years from Gandhi’s
Salt March before India gained independence. We can only hope it doesn’t take
that long for Turkey to regain real democracy and justice.

Tuesday, 13 June 2017

Has
the tide started to change? Has the negative, extremist populism that has
dominated political rhetoric for so long slowly begun to recede? Recent
elections in Europe and the UK certainly give some hope to those who reject the
hard-line uncompromising positions of either the far left or the far (alt)
right.

In France, recently elected Emmanuel
Macron just saw his newly-formed party roar to an overwhelming victory in the
crucial first round of parliamentary elections. On current form his party, La République
En Marche, should win more than 400 of the 557 seats in parliament. With this
victory, he completely overturned the political status quo by burying the
traditional parties of the Left and Right. Macron, France’s anti-Trump, showed
just how meaningless those traditional alignments have become, and in the
process breathed some long-overdue fresh air and vitality into French politics.

He is now firmly in control

He now has the power to enact the
sweeping legislative reforms he promised to get the French economy growing.
Among the first items on his ambitious agenda is reform of France’s notorious
labor law that makes it very expensive to hire anyone and almost impossible to
lay anyone off – regardless of prevailing economic conditions.

Macron’s desire to introduce much
more flexibility into French labor has – predictably -- incurred the wrath of
the far left, who traditionally reject any move to relax the
current strait jacket of regulations. Jean Luc Melanchon, leader of the
far-left La France Insoumise (Unbowed France) has warned Macron that he should
not tinker with the employment laws. The fact that his party received only a
negligible share of the vote doesn’t seem to have made much impression of
Melanchon. Like many people, he severely underestimated the desire of the vast
majority of French people for a thorough, pragmatic approach to get their
country moving again. Macron’s type of pragmatism now has the chance to do more
for the sans culottes of France than
anything the traditional Left or Right have to offer.

As a deeply committed Europhile,
another key part of Macron’s agenda is to deepen and strengthen the European
Union. He has already moved to re-ignite the Franco-German motor of the EU. It
is not all clear just how much Chancellor Angela Merkel shares his views about
deeper integration, but with her recent comments about the EU having to act much
more independently from the United Kingdom and the United States it is possible
see much greater Franco-German cooperation for more integration.

They hold the keys to the European Union

It is doubtful that anyone could
live up to all the expectations that Macron has generated. He may find that using great power effectively is much more difficult than getting such power in the first place. Sooner or later he
will stumble and generate a backlash from even his most fervent supporters. But, in the
meantime, it will be fun to watch him trying to pull a country as steeped in
tradition as France into the 21st century. Right now, he has the
wind in his sails. One only hopes he is a good enough sailor to survive the
inevitable storms.

The reversal of fortune between
France and Britain could not be more dramatic. After a startling election last
week that saw the ruling Conservatives unexpectedly lose seats, Britain is now
drifting rudderless in very dangerous seas. For years the British political and
chattering classes have used France as a shining example of why Britain must
leave the European Union. “How can we be tied to this failing enterprise called
the European Union? Just look at France! What a mess! They will never get out
of that hole.”

Now, it is suddenly Britain that
looks old and bungling compared with the youth and vitality across the channel.
Macron is only 39, while British Prime Minister Theresa May looks very old and
haggard at 60. We are already hearing voices that maybe the so-called Hard
Brexit – a complete break from the EU – might not be the smartest thing to push
for at this time. These concerns are supported by recent economic data that
show Britain at the bottom of the league table. First quarter growth in Britain
was only 0.2% while the Eurozone recorded growth in the same period of 0.6%.
The much-derided Euro has also picked up strength against Sterling.

Whoops! This wasn't supposed to happen.

We were recently in Holland,
traditionally a strong British ally, and heard almost a sigh of relief at the
prospect of Britain leaving the EU. “For years, all they did was say ‘no’ to every initiative for closer
European integration. They wanted to opt out from this, opt out from that. In
short, they always fought harder for British exceptionalism than for the whole
concept of a strong European Union. It will be a relief to have them gone. Now
we can get on with things,” said one senior Dutch executive.

I doubt that Macron will be in a
mood to do Britain any favors in the upcoming Brexit negotiations. I expect him
to pay much more attention to moving his aggressive EU agenda forward than
worrying about Britain’s continued relations – if any – with the union.

The anticipated re-election of
Chancellor Merkel in Germany and the election results in Holland and France
demonstrate that, in Europe at least, the vast majority of voters want nothing
to do with political extremes. They want solutions to their problems, not the
theoretical rantings of the extreme Left or Right. It remains to be seen if the
shock results in Britain will have the same results.

Thursday, 11 May 2017

Superficially,
the heart of Istanbul, the beautiful city rich in history that sits along the
Bosphorus, is hanging on – barely. The hideous tsunami of concrete skyscrapers ruining the classic silhouette of
the famous city encroaches from all sides with every passing day. The drive
from the airport to the city used to be one of the most beautiful anywhere. You
had the sea on one side and well-laid-out flower beds on the other. Now, it’s
like driving down a dark tunnel with no view of anything.

Worse
than the aesthetic and historical damage are the barely suppressed anger, fear,
resignation, depression among the at least 49% who voted against the
constitutional changes giving President Tayyip Erdoğan total control. Convinced
that victory was stolen from them by complete fraud the opponents of Erdoğan’s
power grab are thrashing around trying to come up with an effective response.
The one heartening note for the NO voters is that Erdoğan lost all the major
cities, including previously solid Erdoğan districts in Istanbul. Perhaps this
development will form the basis for a serious challenge to Erdoğan in the next
election. But never underestimate the ability of the opposition to shoot itself
in both feet.

So much for the once-beautiful skyline of Istanbul

After
changing the election rules while the vote was being counted the High Election
Commission has been proven to be completely useless. The courts are no better.
Essentially there are no genuinely independent institutions or internationally
recognized law in Turkey.

Some
have given up and already moved to Europe or the United States. Many of these
wisely got EU or American passports several years ago. According to Greek
reports more than 200 Turkish citizens have boosted the Greek real estate
market by buying houses and flats there.

As
one Turkish friend with a brand new Athenian apartment put it, “Tsipras is a
loose cannon, but he is tightly controlled by the EU. There is nothing at all
controlling Erdoğan. He is flat out dangerous.”

Who knows? Your new neighbor in Kolonaki could be Turkish

Other
wealthy Turks now spend their holidays in Greece’s garden spots like Spetses,
or Porto Heli. The attractions of Greece extend beyond tourism, however. One
major Turkish company is having its annual senior management retreat at the
Grand Bretagne Hotel in Athens. One of Turkey’s leading groups, the Doğuş
Group, has made major investments in Greece by purchasing the Athens Hilton, joining
the partnership in the redevelopment of the Astir Palace, and buying five
marinas. This is just part of a trend where Turkish companies are investing
outside Turkey at much faster rate than inside Turkey.

Still
others are very concerned about their children’s education, and are looking all
over Europe and the U.S. for schools. “This government wants to produce a
generation of morons with frontal lobotomies that simply accepts everything by
rote, never questions anything and certainly never criticizes anything. My kids deserve more." As if to confirm this fear the government recently banned the internet encyclopedia Wikipedia because it contained information that was insufficiently pro-

Erdoğan. Knowledge unfiltered by the Reis can be a dangerous thing according to the government.

Meanwhile,
the Turkish economy continues its dangerous downward slide. Inflation and
unemployment continue to raise despite government spokesmen laughingly saying
the problem is ‘under control.’ The
only way the government can secure funds for the public works projects that
feed Erdoğan’s close circle of friends and family is the increasing resort to
Treasury guarantees – guarantees that cover everything from revenue from
public/private projects and debt held by the contractors of these projects,
some of the private bank debt issued to exporters and small/medium sized
businesses. There is even talk of making the state the payer of last resort for
mandated severances payments that companies must pay each employee according to
seniority when they leave. In order to save cash and make the books look
better, many companies don’t set aside enough money for these payments. Now the
government is considering if it should bail the companies out and assume these
payments. One Turkish investment banker in London laughed when discussing these guarantees. "It's the perfect set-up. There is absolutely no way for one of the favored contractors or concessionaires to lose money. This government will make sure they get bailed out regardless of the hit to the Treasury."

The most troubling part of all these guarantees is that there is absolutely
no transparency. No one, certainly not the hapless taxpayer, has any idea of
the details of this potential serious hit to the Turkish treasury and
ultimately to his wallet. But, then again, why would you make these deals
transparent if that very transparency would undermine the fantasy that you are
trying to get the Turkish people to believe?

However,
before people start thinking that any looming economic collapse will shake
Erdoğan’s throne they should recall some other countries where dictators have
not been affected by weak economies.

“Think
about places like Zimbabwe, Russia, North Korea and Venezuela. All these
economies are suffering and the ordinary people are in tough straits. The
ruling clique stays in power by throwing the democratic rule book out the
window and making its friends rich. Essentially the people are stuffed.”

Despite
all the turmoil and disappointment one young NO voter estimates that most of
his fellow NO voters will hunker down and try to make the best of a bad
situation. Family ties, professional lives and a strong loyalty toward a vision
of what Turkey could be will keep
them in their native country, and perhaps form the core of resistance to
turning Turkey into just another 3rd world dictatorship. One can
hope.

Thursday, 4 May 2017

LIBOURNE,
France – This town in the heart of the Gironde region of southwestern France
sits on the bank of the broad Dordgone River and is surrounded by some of the
most expensive vineyards in the world.
Names like Petrus, Cheval Blanc, or Figeac are just some of the names
that attract very deep-pocketed wine buyers from all over the world.

But
most of the time vineyards are a sedate sort of business. Major activity seems
to come in spurts at different times of the year, and there is almost a
reverential attitude toward the vines. The vines and the red gold that comes
from them are discussed in the hushed tones that one might expect in a church
or a Swiss bank vault. But then again, you might have to open that vault to buy
a bottle or two.

No,
for real activity and a real sense of La
France Profonde – Deep France -- one must visit the open air market that
takes place three times a week in the arcaded center of the town. In this
market and others just like it across the country you get a real sense of what French people consider important – food. It’s
not just food, however. If the spirit moves you can pick up a nifty hat, a pair
of shoes, a shirt, a couple of plates or just about anything you can think of.

Food markets have been held in this square for centuries

Seeing
the food is one thing. Actually getting what you want, however, is something
altogether more difficult. You are competing against experienced French
housewives with massive carrier bags or pulling trolleys the size of your basic
Range Rover intent on getting that luscious looking entrecôte you had your eye on. Their strategy and aggression would
put the French national rugby scrum to shame. Just as you think you have caught
the eye of the butcher a sharpish elbow to the ribs takes you momentarily out
of the game. A few more incidents like that and you might just join their
husbands who have long ago learned the futility of offering an opinion on a
certain vegetable or piece of meat. They have now been relegated to a special
section where they sip their coffee while waiting to be told where to go next.

Good luck getting that cut of meat you wanted

And
the food is discussed with real passion. The different cuts of meat or poultry,
the quality of the animal or what it ate are discussed with an almost religious
fervor that the Jesuits would appreciate. And the debate is no less fervent for the
fruits and vegetables. “Well, of course,
you do understand, don’t you, that while the Spaniards do produce strawberries,
one isn’t quite sure exactly where they come from or how they’re grown.” The stall holder will then inform you of the
provenance of his own strawberries and how they come from a long line of good
respectable French strawberries.

If you don't want the meat there's always the daily fresh fish catch

And
then there are the cheeses. None less than Charles de Gaulle moaned about the
difficulty of running a country that had at least 246 different types of
cheeses. He had a point. Just about all of those varieties, and then some, are
on display, and you are encouraged to sample the subtle – very subtle –
differences between this brie or that brie, Comté aged for different
lengths of time, and many, many more.

Is this what makes France difficult to govern?

Now that the taste buds in your
mouth are clanging like church bells you move on to the shell fish. Huge
baskets are over-flowing with oysters, clams, or scallops from the Bay of
Arcachon about an hour away on the Atlantic coast. You think about buying some.
And then you think again about your skills of opening an oyster without slicing
off at least one of your fingers. Best leave that task to the experts.

While my wife is off haggling about the
price of fresh asparagus – white or green -- in her perfect French, I head to
the nearby stalls filled with fresh paté. My French isn’t awful, but I have to
admit that the names of some of the ingredients of these patés escaped me. I
just nodded sagely, took the offered sample, tried not to gag and moved smartly
onto the instantly recognizable foie
gras.

By this time your shopping bag is
feeling a little heavy and it’s time to look around for a friendly patisserie that would offer a chair and
a coffee to go with that nice looking, fresh pain au chocolat. The first
one went down so well that it had to be followed with another. Finally, it was
time to lug the stuffed shopping bag, now containing the obligatory baguette or two, back to the car and
head home.

Now the real challenge begins. Just
what do you do with all your purchases that seem to include enough food to feed
several small countries? Well, this is France, after all. And figuring out what
to do with food is something they do very, very well.

Friday, 28 April 2017

BORDEAUX
-- Very few elections offer voters a crystal-clear choice of policies. The
presidential election in France next month is one of those rare occurrences.
The two candidates in the final round offer polar-opposites of policies for surmounting
the multiple challenges facing France as well as Europe. The choice couldn’t be
more stark.

In the first round of the
presidential election voters swept away the sterile, failed policies of the
traditional Left and Right parties who had ruled France for
more than 60 years. The minute policy differences of these two groups were
hotly debated among the chattering classes of Paris for decades while the rest
of the country was left to stagnate in an economic morass.

The first round on April 23 highlighted
the new division in France. Instead of the old Left/Right construct France now has a sharp division between those
favouring the so-called liberal world
order with all its international institutions, global economic aspirations,
human rights and freedoms that Europe has become used to. This camp thinks
France is in a much stronger position to face global competition as an active
member of the European Union than as an isolated, independent country caught
between the huge forces of the United States, Russia and China. Opposing this
are those who reject completely the liberal
world order and who want to pull France out of institutions like NATO, the
European Union, and the Euro. Their answer to France’s economic and social
problems follows Trump’s recipe: pull up the drawbridge, cower behind high
tariff walls, and – most of all – kick out all the immigrants.

Why does all this matter? Why should
anyone outside France worry about this election? Simple. France is a big
country at the heart of Europe. A European Union without France is
inconceivable. A revitalized French economy would be a huge shot in the arm for
Europe as a whole. A re-confirmation of the values of human rights and equality
in a country as central as France would send a clear message that Europe still
firmly rejects the authoritarian, isolationist, and nativist policies of the
extreme right.

Centrist Candidate Emmanuel Macron

The centrist candidate, 39-year-old
Emmanuel Macron, came out of nowhere to form a country-wide movement that
propelled him to first place in the first round of the presidential elections.
He is a former minister in the government of President Francois Holland, but
left last year to start his own independent run with a new formation called En
Marche! – Forward. He symbolizes the side of France that accepts the global
challenges of the 21st Century and says France could clearly be on
the winning side of those challenges. He is full of ideas for changing the
stalled French economy, but these ideas involve changing the status quo in France – something that is
very hard to accomplish in a country where traditions and fixed opinions are
strong. In short, change is not
something generally well received here.

The extreme-right wing candidate,
Marine Le Pen – otherwise known as Le Trump – says Rubbish to all that. She inherited the Front National leadership from her father who was one of the
founders of the party. She has tried to change, without much success, the
party’s racist, quasi-fascist, anti-Semitic image into pure, Trumpian social
and economic nationalism. But sometimes the old image shines through as she
whips up the crowd about restoring the Glory
of France. The only ideas she proposes for accomplishing this ambitious
goal are retreating rapidly from the global economy, leaving international institutions like NATO, giving up the Euro, and throwing out all the
immigrants. And along the way, she would cripple all international investment
bankers – like Macron – whom she blames for France’s fall from power and glory.

Extreme Right Candidate Marine Le Pen

In normal times Le Pen would never
have a chance of winning the second round because the vast majority of votes
from the losing parties would go to anyone opposing the National Front – seen by
many as an affront to the sophisticated, socially responsible image of France. This
would be a repeat of 2002 when Le Pen’s father made the final round, but was
routed by conservative Jacques Chirac as even the leftist voters chose him over
the National Front.

But these are not normal times in a deeply
divided country. If a large number of voters whose candidates lost in the first
round decide to abstain rather than support a change advocate like Macron it is
quite possible that Le Pen could sneak into the presidency.

This danger comes from the fact that in
the voters’ disgust with the status quo the extreme Left and the extreme Right
accumulated almost 40% of the total vote in the first round. Despite their
apparent contradictions very little separates the economic policies of both
extremes. To them, issues like globalisation,
international finance, or bankers in general are evils to be rejected at
all costs. The extreme Left risks making the same mistake that the small
splinter holier-than-thou parties in
the United States made in 2016 when they took votes from Hillary Clinton and
handed the presidency to Donald Trump. Many of France’s extreme left have said
they prefer to maintain their intellectual
purity by abstaining rather than voting for the hated globalisation they
think Macron stands for. This electoral dilemma has driven the French café society
into overdrive as everyone offers advice on what must be done. It remains to be seen just how much the French
electorate pays attention to all this noise.

French presidential election
campaigns are mercifully short, and it will all be over on May 7. The French
are also spared the tactics of Turkey’s ruler Tayyip Erdoğan. It’s a relief to
be in a country where political opponents and critical journalists are not
thrown in jail, newspapers represent every political point of view, there is
equal time for the candidates, and – most important – there is no threat of
rigging the results. Regardless of the outcome, we should all be grateful for
free and fair elections. Experience in Turkey shows they can never be taken for
granted.

Followers

About Me

I worked as a fund manager and investment banker in Turkey and the Middle East for 25 years. Over the years I have travelled extensively throughout the region and have met many of the leading government officials, business and cultural leaders. I am married to a Greek and now divide my time between London, Turkey, and an island in the Aegean.