Pope Benedict XVI's replacement will be 'ideological clone'

Official assertions that Pope Benedict XVI would have no role in the choice of
his successor were called into question yesterday as Vatican-watchers
pointed out that he had packed the future conclave with his own appointments.

All of the remainder were appointed under his predecessor and mentor John Paul II, with only two living Cardinals appointed under his predecessor Paul VI, both of whom are too old to vote.

And amid a clamour for a figure from the developing world to become Pope, it is notable that of the 118 voting Cardinals, only 11 are from Africa and 19 from Latin America while a total of 62 are from Europe – with 28 from Italy alone.

In the last year alone Benedict has appointed 28 new cardinals, including six just three months ago.

Experts said this would ensure he has indirect influence on the choice.

“You can’t predict the results of a conclave but the thing you can predict is that whoever emerges will be an ideological clone of Benedict,” said Prof Diarmaid MacCulloch, professor of Church History at Oxford University.

“The reason for that is the present voting cardinals have been chosen by John Paul II and Benedict to be in their image, to be conservative, to keep a line going.

“This is going to be another conservative Pope, perhaps the last before a great explosion in the Church.”

John Thavis, a veteran analyst whose book The Vatican Diaries is about to be published, said: “Even a pope that dies in office has a strong influence over the selection of his successor because he has appointed many of the cardinals who will be voting.

“This has always been true but it is doubly true now because he is still alive.”

Austen Ivereigh, a commentator from Catholic Voices, insisted Benedict would not be the “ghost in the room” at the conclave but said there would inevitably be continuity.

“Who are these radicals?” he said.

“Looking at the College of cardinals I see a lot of men shaped by Benedict and John Paul II’s priorities.”

He added that recent appointments to key Vatican posts could also prove decisive, raising the profile of a handful of candidates among a body of Cardinals, many of whom do not know each other well.

This, he said, could favour the current bookmakers’ favourite, Cardinal Marc Ouellet, a Canadian.

Appointed a Cardinal by John Paul II, he was given a string of high profile positions under Benedict including Prefect of the Congregation of Bishops, which chooses bishops, and, significantly, head of the Vatican’s Latin American department.

“Popes don’t appoint their successors but what they can do is ensure their visibility and I think that’s what has happened in this case,” he said.

Robert Mickens, Vatican correspondent for The Tablet, said: “These are uncharted waters, we have never had an election in which a former pope was still alive.

“By resigning he has assured that he can have an influence on who becomes his successor. One of his guys is probably going to be elected Pope.

"It will be psychologically difficult for the cardinals to vote for someone who wants to take the Church in a very different direction than Benedict.

“They won't feel as free to make their decision as they would have had he died.”