Archive

Stop this scaremongering! We got enough problems of our own to worry about yours!

We did not get an agreement on 50% reductions in global emissions by 2050 or on 80% reductions by developed countries. Both were vetoed by China, despite the support of a coalition of developed and the vast majority of developing countries. Indeed, this is one of the straws in the wind for the future: the old order of developed versus developing has been replaced by more interesting alliances. (via The road from Copenhagen | Ed Miliband | Comment is free | The Guardian).

More interesting was when Europe went ahead and committed funds and disbursed carbon credits. Small amounts – but nevertheless a significant step! So, what gives! How come Europe was disbursing – not serious money, but more than pocket money, without using IMF, World Bank, et al. No UN! How come?

Anglo-Euro efforts

The joint trojan operation (Norway, Australia and UK + EU) against China (or was it India?) was immaculately pursued. Bernarditas de Castro Muller, former lead coordinator and negotiator for the G77 and China in Copenhagen, writing in the Guardian of UK, reported,

The UK financed workshops in selected vulnerable countries and deployed climate envoys. One of its envoys told intransigent negotiators that the UK would mobilise a group of vulnerable countries to pressure the major developing countries – such as China, Brazil and India – into committing to emissions reductions, contrary to their obligations under the climate treaty.

The EU for example made sustained attempts to influence and pressure developing nations – something that only served to increase their cohesion. They bribed where they could, promising the same recycled financing and maybe more to come if countries bent to their demands. And they bullied when they could not bribe.

Stabroek News in Guyana has confirmed that President Bharrat Jagdeo has been nominated for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to combat climate change. He was nominated by Professor David Dabydeen, Director of the Centre for Caribbean Studies at the University of Warwick.

US actor Harrison Ford and Guyana's President Bharrat Jagdeo at a news conference about forest protection on September 21, 2009 in New York. Photograph: Don Emmert/AFP/Getty Images

Possibly it was the US efforts which made China and India stand together at Copenhagen.

Why the US did not ratify the Kyoto Protocol?

The political undertones of climate control talks are unravelling. The first major smoke signal was when the USA refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol – while talking about global warming and climate change at the same time. Sometimes puzzling and wholly beyond understanding! The lip service paid by the US to climate change can be best summarized by a Hindi idom हाथी के दांत, खाने के एक, दिखाने के एक. Meaning, elephants have two sets of teeth – one for actual use and another for show.

Cynical subversion of media, honours and public opinion

The third element in the multilateral equations set was the efforts made by Bush /Obama to get India and China to ‘get on the climate change band wagon’ with the US. The Chinese ‘unilateral’ announcement of ‘voluntary’ carbon intensity cut after Obama’s trip to China a few days before Copenhagen was a signpost of this unusual ‘alliance’. India followed soon thereafter with its own ‘voluntary’ carbon intensity cuts. One of the justifications of Bush’s nuclear deal with India was climate change.

This US master-stroke of Obama+BASIC meeting, ensured that the “only breakthrough was the political coup for China and India in concluding the anodyne communiqué with the United States behind closed doors, with Brazil and South Africa allowed in the room and Europe left to languish in the cold outside.”

In hindsight, US covert resistance to climate change was actually resistance to the monopolisation by the EU on the climate change agenda and campaign. Under the garb of climate change, EU was trying to do what US did to the world, under the garb of poverty elimination, population control, Bretton Woods in the aftermath of WW2.

What were the BASIC countries resisting

“Teams of international economists, scientists, inspectors and statisticians roaming China to gather information on carbon emissions and reduction initiatives … reporting to political masters in America and Europe … (on) the further problem of cheating in current and future carbon reduction schemes.” (ellipsis and linking text in brackets mine).

The Climate Change Agreement would have delivered us - hog tied and helpless!

“We cannot again allow negotiations … to be hijacked in this way. We will need to have major reform of the UN body overseeing the negotiations and of the way the negotiations are conducted (for this) global campaign, co-ordinated by green NGOs, backed by business … we must keep this campaign going and build on it. It needs to be more of a genuinely global mobilisation, taking in all countries …this year has proved what can be done, as well as the scale of the challenge we face. (ellipsis and emphasis mine).

Indeed much has been done.

Face behind the mask

Faceless NGOs, without accountability to anyone, were able to bring global political leadership, to the very brink of an agreement. Like Milliband’s boss, Gordon Brown remarked, “the political will to secure the ambitious agreement … comprehensive and global agreement that is then converted to an internationally legally binding treaty in no more than six months.” was very much there. The same 25,000 people (25 countries x 1000 powerful people) who rule over the G8-/OECD wanted the poor to invite these 25,000 to have undue and illegitimate oversight over our ‘poor’ lives – in the name of climate change.

The message I got ... loud and clear

To deliver more than 600 crore (6 billion) of humanity to an agreement that would have allowed the likes of the Milliband Brothers (and their NGO ‘partners-in-crime’) to pry into our lives, our affairs and dictate our very existence – with our own consent. Without recourse, with no checks and balances. With large amounts of unaccounted money at their disposal. To decide how we live our lives. Under a system, that would have re-invented colonialism, in a way wholly unknown to us earlier.

Any deal was a bad deal

Last time around, India was called the deal breaker at Doha. This time around, it is China. Who gets called, what by whom, may seems unimportant! But as my grandfather reminded me many times, बद हो जाओ, लेकिन बदनाम नहीं (Beware of getting a bad reputation).

The Guardian, goes onto say, “Only China is mentioned specifically in Miliband’s article but aides tonight made it clear that he included Sudan, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and Cuba, which also tried to resist a deal being signed.” Sadly India is not included in this list of ‘deniers’ who are, as Gordon Brown puts it, “anti-science and anti-change environmental Luddites who seek to stand in the way of progress.”

White House senior advisor David Axelrod told CNN that the Copenhagen Accord would allow US verification. “Now China and India have set goals. We are going to be able to review what they are doing. We are going to be able to challenge them if they do not meet those goals,” Axelrod said.

Like last time

This time around, based on similarly dubious research, India is being pressured to accept monitoring of climate change. Climate control and the Copenhagen meet is that fast growing octopus which is spreading out. It tentacles can be found in all kinds of places. One of its tentacles has reached India – which was any way the target. The Aspen Institute, India (AII).

Something doesn’t add up …

To ’soften’ up India, the AII organized a gab-fest. Who could be a good candidate for a gathering of such worthies? At least, Nobel Prize winners. Rajendra Pachauri? Al Gore? Any better candidates. Yes.

Amartya Sen – who ‘graced’ this gab-fest, hosted by Aspen Institute, India (AII) – an ‘associate’ of Aspen Institute, USA. Amartya Sen is tenderizing up the media, the academia, to accept Copenhagen outcome – which is primarily International ‘monitoring’ of India’s climate control and administration. Does Amartya Sen raise any of these questions? For his efforts to weaken Indian position and interests, Amartya Sen will soon qualify as a unique category of Indian passport holder – Non-Resident, Non-Indian, holding an Indian passport.

The carbon credits ‘opportunity’

Interestingly, note one thing very carefully. No one, but none, is talking up about cleaning up on pollution. No industry is being asked to reduce their pollutants (think of inks, dyes and chemicals), manage by-products (sulphur from petroleum refining), eliminate contamination (paper plants), decrease waste (electronics), recycle (just imagine the number of mobile phone batteries).

Dada Amartya, you got a memory lapse! How come you don’t talk about any of this?

Camels … in the kingdom of heaven

Copenhagen is for the rich (from poor countries), by the rich (from rich countries) to the rich (from poor and rich countries) – and may the poor and common be damned. And one thing you can be absolutely, completely, definitely, positively, wholly sure of.

The poor will never, ever, at all, in any manner, benefit from climate control.

The Obama administration is increasingly signalling that the US will not continue to be the world’s consumer and importer of last resort. The clearest statements came last month from Larry Summers, White House economics director, in a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and in an interview with the Financial Times. The US, he said, must become an export-oriented rather than a consumption-based economy and must rely on real engineering rather than financial wizardry.

This long-run vision for US growth entails greater exports and probably a smaller current account deficit than where it is now (about 3 per cent of gross domestic product). Although Mr Summers did not and could not say so, the vision will require an end to the remaining overvaluation of the dollar.

Put starkly, Mr Summers has stated that China can no longer behave like China because the US intends to behave much more like China. The world economy cannot have two, or even one-and-a-half, Chinese growth strategies from its two most important economies. Which will prevail? (via Fred Bergsten & Arvind Subramanian: Resolving global imbalances).

It has allowed the US to use its overvalued (and over-printed) currency to buy vast tracts of the world economy. And now having captured these segments of the world economy (especially raw material sources), with an over-valued currency, it will achieve two objectives.

The US is in no position to pay off its nearly US$4 trillion, it owes the Rest of the World – equal to about 1 years GDP (my estimate, in PPP terms). This kind of dollar devaluation does three things at one stroke.

Kojak Haircut Series – A Greenspan-Bernanke Production

One – It reduces the real value of its debt. The Chinese, the Rest of BRICS and the Others need to be paid a lot less in the future. (as pointed out earlier in various posts linked here.) Two – It makes US exports artificially competitive. (as pointed out earlier in linked posts). Three – The US competitiveness will be anchored to assets purchased with over-valued dollars.

Readers can take courage from the fact that each such ‘process’ gives the US lesser returns and fewer options. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility. Or in plain language ‘crying wolf’ often never paid off.

But the smart answer is to go out and buy one kilogram of gold. If each reader of Quicktake and 2ndlook blogs were to do this, the world would become a safer and fairer world in the next 10-20 years.

The overarching goal of Chinese foreign policy was to “spare no effort to ensure the stable and relatively fast growth of the domestic economy”, he told a news conference held to coincide with the country’s annual session of parliament. “The pressing task now is that all countries must work together to make the upcoming financial summit in London a success,” Yang said. “We believe the summit should play a role in boosting confidence, strengthening coordination on macroeconomic policies, stabilising financial markets, undertaking necessary reforms in the global financial system and regulatory regime.” Yang’s news conference highlighted the extent to which the world’s third-biggest economy now views its diplomacy through an economic lens. He brushed aside a question about whether his government blamed economic laxity in Washington for the world’s woes. He said the two had to work together and that Beijing was off to a good start with U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration. “In the current international environment, China and the U.S. share broad common interests. We hope that each side can accommodate the other’s core interests and enhance exchanges and cooperation,” he said. Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao will meet for the first time in London. (via UPDATE 2-China says G20 summit success a priority – News – CNBC.com).

Outraged China

China was right. The US is looking after its own – and not bothered about the problems the US has created for other countries.

“The grim reality has led people, amidst the panic, to realize that the United States has used the U.S. dollar’s hegemony to plunder the world’s wealth,” said the commentator, Shi Jianxun, a professor at Shanghai’s Tongji University.

Shi, who has before been strident in his criticism of the U.S., said other countries had lost vast amounts of wealth because of the financial crisis, while Washington’s sole concern had been protecting its own interests.

“The U.S. dollar is losing people’s confidence. The world, acting democratically and lawfully through a global financial organization, urgently needs to change the international monetary system based on U.S. global economic leadership and U.S. dollar dominance,” he wrote.

Shi suggested that all trade between Europe and Asia should be settled in euros, pounds, yen and yuan, though he did not explain how the Chinese currency could play such a role since it is not convertible on the capital account.

Late In the day, Mr.Hu … This is something that the world has been talking about for a long time. China has been a major supporter (and victim) of this scam – by allowing US companies unlimited access and support. Chinese citizens have been duped with low paying jobs at these enterprises.

Is China forgetting history … Mr.Hu – Today it is the US – but yesterday, it was Europe, Mr.Hu. Europe was blockaded by the US for the last 100 years – and hence, European loot is possibly forgotten in China. European loot was accompanied by a lot of bloodshed and killing also, Mr.Hu.

Has the Leopard Changed its spots Possibly, you dont know, Mr.Hu, because China has very little wildlife left. Leopards don’t change their spots. Europe behaves today, because it has no options.

The answers A new currency floated by the five major economies who are most affected today – China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa. Maybe Japan will also join in. But, the answer, Mr.Hu is with these 5 – and not Europe.

The DragoBear Dance

Russia and China as significant military powers as well as a part of P5, will want their pound of flesh. They will, of course, be afraid of being left out! The US will not have them and the EU does not want them!

China and Russia

The big issue is of course, China and Russia. China has 2 trillion of US dollars – and what does China do with this? Russia has come out from a default about a decade ago – with a nearly US$400 billion reserves – flexing its muscles in Georgia and dependent on a high oil prices. What happens to Russia if a new Pacific Republic (Cuba, Haiti, West Indies, etc) were to start drilling for oil? In 5 years, the world would be awash with oil – and Russia’s mineral earnings could evaporate. This crisis seems to have made the Chinese Premier shaky. So, the world may not trust China and Russia too much.

China’s most popular politician Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, has become a target for Communist party hardliners and could be forced from office, according to a magazine in Hong Kong.

Inner Party Democracy

Actually, if the Chinese were to open up the Communist Party also to a transparent democracy, it would be OK. Then such reports would have little meaning.As long as peaceful change in Governments and officials happen, a country /nation is ‘stable’.

Propping up the dollar?

While Europe and USA tussle … No clash … more like fighting over spoils …

In the last 10 years, the Euro has managed to make a niche for itself – and make space for itself. With the dollar under pressure, now the Euro wants to twist the knife into the dollar side. The Euro-zone knows that the G-5 (Russia, China, India, Brazil, South Africa) are not prepared with an alternate plan.

Without such ‘special’ mechanisms, the Euro and dollar zones have to compete, without significant weight advantage on their side. The institutional mechanisms in the G-5 have large gaps – and the Euro Bloc knows that. Hence, the Euro Bloc is trying to gain advantage over the dollar – and they can succeed only if China and Russia ‘co-operate’ with the Euro zone.

BRITISH Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Sunday he expected Saudi Arabia to give more money to boost the International Monetary Fund’s ability to bail out nations hardest hit by worldwide economic chaos.

The IMF has 250 billion pounds (S$596 billion) available to help countries struggling to stay afloat – but Mr Brown wants to increase this by hundreds of billions of dollars.

Opening doors

Middle East is possibly the only place where a British passport still opens doors. Most of the Gulf’s despots were put on the throne by a British dispensation after WW1. Hence, they look back at the British with gratitude and fondness – and bless themselves at their stroke of luck. Of course, the initial oil finds in the Middle East were also done by British monopolies.

Sending Gordon Brown to the Middle East was a smart move – by the US establishment, with George Bush suffering from a lame duck presidency. And the Saudi’s would have been it was payback time, as

WASHINGTON: President George W Bush will host a summit on November 15 in Washington, DC, area to discuss the global financial crisis and ways to prevent it from happening again, the White House announced on Wednesday.

“This will be the first in a series of summits that bring together leaders from countries that participate in the G-20 finance process to discuss current economic challenges.

The so-called G-20 includes the Group of Seven advanced industrial countries and the European Union as well as China, Brazil, India, Russia, South Korea and other major economies.

At the first meeting, working groups will be set up to develop recommendations to be considered by leaders in subsequent summits.

The real action will be 5 countries – Russia and China on one hand – and India, South Africa and Brazil on the other.

Safe, Steady and Sure

Between ASEAN and IBSA, India needs to take such groupings from talk-fests to action-teams. Western clubs like UN, IMF, World Bank, G-7, P-5, etc are all heavily weighted against ‘outsiders’ like developing nations. We can keep banging our head against these altars, for another 60 years. It wont work.

We need to move – not necessarily fast, but surely and steadily.

Three Horsemen Of Apocalypse

The G3 (i.e. India, South Africa and Brazil) have functioning democracies, decent regulatory systems (which can be ramped up), the technology platforms, the trading systems, a vibrant entrepreneurial class – all of which is powering their economies forward. What they don’t have is P5 status – which is useful, though not essential.

This Washington meeting

During the con-fab, ‘committees will be set up’ which create mechanisms for this management.

The big issue for the developing world will be obtaining assurances against predatory raids by the dollar bloc and the Euro-zone to dismantle any new system – like the alleged plot of 1997 Asian crisis.

The lesser issues will also be inter-bank settlements, anchoring currencies (the role of gold or bullion).

Contours Of The Deal

The EU-USA-Asia may agree on a broad a global regulatory and oversight body to monitor and maintain oversight over a multiple currency regime. The new currency may an Asian-Developing world currency. Some of Asia may want to cling to the dollar skirt.

The new 3rd currency may take some time to figure out.

Complacent also .. not just clueless ...

Clueless Indians

India … outlined the steps it wants taken to lift the global economy out of the current financial morass. Addressing leaders of 45 Asian and European countries at the ASEM summit here, PM Manmohan Singh said the first step would be to “de-clog” the global credit markets which had choked up as a result of the crisis.

Second, multilateral financial institutions (MFI) like World Bank and IMF should step in with larger resources to invest in large infrastructure projects in developing countries, which can act as a stabilizer in the global economy. …

It is now clear that India would certainly be present at the November 15 G-20 summit in Washington. … US President George Bush has called up Singh to personally ask him to be present. In what was clearly a global reversal of roles, European countries repeatedly asked Asia to lead the way out of the crisis. N Ravi, secretary (east) in the MEA, told reporters that all EU leaders asked Asian countries to refrain from withdrawing into “economic nationalism”.

Either … or …

India seems to completely lack direction on how to move independently in times like these. After, all why should India even look at IMF and World Bank – which are fig leaf organizations of the West, as transfer mechanisms of wealth from the Third World to the rich.

Or India is working on a different plan, of which we know nothing. After all, India does believe in moving steadily (even, if slowly).

Russia and China

US and EU have their own reserve currencies – leaving Russia and China out in the open. Russia and China (as full P5 powers) will want a ‘lion’s share’ of influence in any new architecture. Which any Third World grouping will not give.

Stalemate.

Japan + ASEAN

China-leaning Lee Kuan Yew with an Islamic Malaysia may not be very hot about ‘giving so much influence’ to a ‘new member’ like India for an ASEAN initiative.

Any action which hurts the US, their largest market and patron, will be something that will make Japan and ASEAN hesitate. The very economic model of ASEAN + Japan is undervalued currency + exports to the USA. Hence, they will be wary of any initiative that affects the USA – and the West.

Status Quo …

Interestingly …

Manmohan Singh is the only educationally qualified leader in the leadership line up of major world economies.

Democratic Monarchy

Lee Kuan Yew’s diatribe against ‘Western democracy’ fails on this point. What happens after the Lee family dilutes its holding in Singapore – due to family size and age. Singapore has become a ‘democratic’ monarchy’. Which would be fine – if it were to declare itself so, and define succession laws.

India, engage

It is this lack of political transparency, which stops many awaited changes from taking place. And that is one thing that differentiates India.

ONGC Videsh (OVL), the foreign investment arm of Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), has found two significant hydrocarbon leads in a Cuban deepwater exploration block where it has a 30% stake. The leads are likely to result into major hydrocarbon discoveries, people close to the development said.

Reeling under the curse of history, Western intervention and poverty, the Caribbean islands have been dealt a bad hand. Third World countries are paying through their nose to the OPEC cartel and for a dollar hegemony. Oil can break this vicious cycle.

“I don’t understand why it took so long to sign this agreement,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who presided over a signing ceremony for the deal with Cuban President Raul Castro.

That makes two of us, Mr.President!

Brazil has also taken the first step. ONGC was already in the game. As is Russia. With India, Brazil and Russia working on Cuban oil exploration, it is a promising first step to a prosperous Caribbean.

Emerging markets are being battered by the global financial crisis as investors shun assets seen as being riskier. Russia, the world’s largest energy supplier, has spent $210 billion, or more than a third of its currency reserves, supporting the ruble since August, Fitch said.

G7 and OECD countries have created a club for themselves, by giving each other unlimited line of credit – while the developing world gets credit based on fast-depreciating dollar/euro foreign exchange reserves. Maybe this needs an inversion.

The OECD and G7 should be asked to pay their purchases. In a new global reserve currency. And the BRICS need to start working on that.

Reeling under the curse of history, a past replete with slavery, Western intervention and poverty, the Caribbean islands have been dealt a bad hand. Third World countries are paying through their nose to the OPEC cartel and for a dollar hegemony. This oil deal can break this vicious cycle.

“I don’t understand why it took so long to sign this agreement,” said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who presided over a signing ceremony for the deal with Cuban President Raul Castro.

Intrigued? Interested!

The 2ndlook blogs group try to give its readers a 360° view of the past present and probable outcomes. These four blogs have each a different focus. The common value that runs through these blogs is an invite to readers for discussion and participation - with a proviso of no personal attacks or use of invective.

With a focus on history, long-term trends, economy, political and social models. A blog that works to breakdown propaganda for what it is. The first blog of the group, over the four years of its existence, it has managed a monthly traffic of more than 10,000 hits.

Quicktake focusses more on current events, recent events, reports, media buzz, matters of topical interests. Typically, Quicktakes are shorter than 2ndlook. Sometimes a few Quicktakes, morph into a 2ndlook post.

Top Vote getters

Quicktake’N’

2ndlook on Indus Valley-Saraswati Basin

Exciting new series. From 1 Mar, 2010.

10 posts. More than 50 photographs. 100 links to the best original sources and writers. Get a 2ndlook at the 'Indus Valley Civilization' research. On military, defence, currency, travel, political systems. Cutting edge discoveries. With research from more than 200 news items, journals and books. Without the politics, with insight.