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Brexit: Waiting for ElizabethEditorial of The New York Sun | April 4, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-waiting-for-queen-elizabeth/90638/It looks -- at least to us -- like Brexit is going to have to be decided by Queen Elizabeth II. Will Her Majesty give her Royal Assent to the bill the Commons has just passed outlawing a so-called no-deal-Brexit? That is, will she be the one to forsake the independence of her own kingdom? Or will she protect the monarchy, which has been sovereign for a thousand years?Continue Reading

The Devil and Theresa MayEditorial of The New York Sun | March 28, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-devil-and-theresa-may/90629/Of Prime Minister May's offer to quit as prime minister if the Commons approves her Brexit deal . . . well, it hasn't happened yet (nor any other of eight proposals). Yet we haven't heard anything so tempting since Stephen Vincent Benet's story of the Devil and Daniel Webster. Mrs. May is no further down on her luck than Farmer Jabez Stone was when he pricked his finger and struck his deal with the Devil.Continue Reading

Brexit and the Irish QuestionEditorial of The New York Sun | April 1, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-and-the-irish-question/90632/Could Brexit result in the reunification of Ireland? Could it trump -- forgive us -- all the wars and feuding over the division of the emerald isle between the centrally Catholic Irish Republic in the south and the predominantly Protestant part of the United Kingdom that is known as Northern Ireland? That it might is a suggestion being made in a piece in Sunday Review of the New York Times .Continue Reading

Rauf Mammadov writes: Central Asia’s strategic location, vast resources, and predominantly Muslim population mean that Gulf states are likely to continue expanding their influence in the region[…]. But a larger Gulf state presence in the region also means rivalry with Russia and China. Saudi Arabia has established a unique collaboration with Moscow to stabilize global oil prices while at the same time competing with Russia for the lucrative Chinese market. The Gulf states will likely need to continue walking a tightrope to maintain good relations with Central Asia’s two big neighbors as they expand their presence in the region. – Middle East Institute

National Security Group Reestablished With Focus on China ThreatBy Bill Gertz, The Washington Free Beacon: “Creation of the Committee on the Present Danger-China follows three earlier iterations of the storied organization that played influential roles in American national security policy beginning in the 1950s and throughout the Cold War and after."

The Kremlin Prepares to Defend Venezuela’s Maduro Regime by All MeansBy Pavel Felgenhauer, Eurasia Daily Monitor: "The fact that this mission in Venezuela is headed by such a prominent military commander indicates the importance of the engagement. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that the Russian military specialists, experts and advisors will stay in Venezuela “as long as it takes and as long the Venezuelan government wants them” and will be helping to “realize [bilateral] military-technical cooperation agreements.”"

How to help Venezuelans oust MaduroRoger F. Noriega | New York Post The collapse of Venezuela’s electrical grid this month triggered a struggle for power — literally, electricity — by narco-dictator Nicolás Maduro and sent 30 million people scrambling for food and water.

How Trump Should Counter Putin in Ukraine and VenezuelaBy Dr. Jiri Valenta, March 18, 2019EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: If Nicolás Maduro is removed from office in Venezuela, Putin might act as he did when a popular revolution overthrew Yanukovych in Ukraine in 2014. At that time, he launched a surprise invasion of Crimea. This time, he may launch a surprise naval and land attack on Mariupol, set up a land bridge from Crimea to Russia, and continue intensifying his attempt to strangle Ukraine’s economy in order to subjugate that country to Russia. Trump must take immediate preemptive measures to prevent this by increasing naval aid to Kiev.Continue to full article ->

Iran's Ballistic Missile Program: New DevelopmentsBy Farhad Rezaei, March 12, 2019EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Iran’s rapid development of missile expertise has raised concerns in Washington and among its allies about Tehran’s intentions. Despite international censure, the Revolutionary Guards have been able to develop the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the region. Tehran is determined to develop and acquire ever more advanced and accurate ballistic missiles – but its efforts to achieve that goal are hampered by American and Israeli determination to subvert it.Continue to full article ->

Micheal Rubin writes: Arguably, Somalia—rather than Afghanistan—is America’s longest war. […], the failure even to coordinate with those controlling key territory most successful again Al-Shaabab, pirates, and weapons smugglers suggests that, while the Pentagon is willing to spend money, AFRICOM is not prepared to win. – American Enterprise Insitute

Aaron Stein writes: The S-400 saga is a microcosm of broader, structural changes driving the United States and Turkey apart. Beyond personality politics, it is now simply a fact that Washington and Ankara have different interests in the Middle East and view one another as hindrances to realizing national goals. Given this reality, it would be imprudent for the United States (and European F-35 operators) not to study its options, and start looking at ways to mitigate the risk to the F-35. – War On The Rocks

Erin Dunne writes: Turkey is an important ally occupying a key geographic position at the crossroads of Central Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. That has made the country a strategic ally hosting airbases and missiles and serving as a launch point for U.S. and NATO operations in the Middle East. Those same strategic considerations have also made Turkey a prime target for other foreign powers, Russia chief among them. Increased relations between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin is a clear blow to Washington’s interests, threatening to block U.S. access to the Middle East and cut its regional influence. – Washington Examiner

Micheal Rubin writes: The German government’s celebration of Iran’s Islamic Revolution may have been gratuitous, but it was consistent with decades, if not more than a century, of German foreign policy. For successive German governments, lucrative contracts have always trumped human rights and, absent any moral clarity in German political culture, will continue to do so. – Washington Examiner

Michael Eisenstadt and Soner Cagaptay write: Although President Trump was following through on an oft-repeated campaign pledge when he announced a full withdrawal in December, the decision was still viewed by many as a hasty move that could upset the fragile equilibrium created by the U.S. military presence in Syria. […] In the end, President Trump will have to reconcile two incompatible campaign promises—disengaging from the Middle East or defeating IS. Doing so means making hard choices that may not align with his preferences, but could go far toward safeguarding U.S. interests in the region. – Washington Institute​

Asli Aydintasbas writes: If you think Turkey’s relationship with the United States is currently very tumultuous, you haven’t seen anything yet. The two allies have had bouts of hysteria on and off since 2015, mostly to do with Ankara resenting U.S. support for Syrian Kurds and Washington increasingly finding its longtime ally an unreliable partner in the Middle East.[…] As much as a strongman as Erdogan appears, the S-400 controversy actually demonstrates the weak position he has put Turkey in. His effort to demonstrate that Turkey has choices and is not an American vassal has so alienated Turkey’s Western partners and weakened its economy that the country now risks becoming a Russian vassal. – Washington Post

After weeks of failed talks following an election widely believed to be fraudulent, the newly-elected President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Felix Tshisekedi, has been urged to enter a power-sharing agreement with his predecessor, Joseph Kabila.

If Trump truly wants to end America’s endless wars abroad, he should embrace US allies, bolster democracies, and recognize that even at the height of its greatness, America has never truly gone it alone. Finish here.

AEI’s Marc Thiessen debated Buck Sexton on the correct US military strategy in the Middle East and the future of US national security. The two discussed whether a full withdrawal is in the United States’ best interest and whether our lengthy engagement with ISIS has successfully deterred future attacks. Watch the debate here.

The Salafi-jihadist movement is winningKatherine Zimmerman | RealClearWorld Local conflicts and popular grievances create openings for the Salafi-jihadist movement to grow its influence. Working to resolve these conflicts will block its efforts to infiltrate communities. Reducing the movement’s ability to interact with populations is the only way to weaken it. America’s strategy must change to reflect this reality.

U.S., AFRICA:Understaffed AFRICOM CuttingHundreds More TroopsBy Tara Copp, Military Times: “U.S. Africa Command has begun cutting up to 10 percent of its forces from the continent in response to U.S. security challenges elsewhere, the top U.S. commander for Africa told reporters at the Munich Security Conference."

CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel. CTP’s Iran team follows developments on the internal politics, military capabilities, and regional conflicts closely.

Jomana Qaddour writes: The Trump administration’s stated policy objectives in Syria were reaffirmed at the February 6 meeting of the “Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS”: namely, to push back against Iranian hegemony, destroy the Islamic State, and condition reconstruction on real political progress outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254. Now that the administration intends to relinquish most of its military leverage inside Syria, however, it will need to strategically coordinate with regional allies even more to achieve these objectives. Its last, best leverage in this regard is reconstruction. – Washington Institute

Will Germany, Not Ready & Slow To Invest, Keep EU Leadership, Deter PutinBy Robbin Laird, Wednesday, February 20, 2019 3:41 PMThe Cold War has not returned, but the Russians have. The challenge for the Trump Administration is less about whether the US cares about European defense; it is much more about a strategic shift of American attention to dealing with the Chinese and North Korean threats.

GERMANY:The Unready HegemonBy Constanze Stelzenmüller, Berlin Policy Journal: “German foreign and security policy is not prepared for the new era of great power competition. To stand up for its convictions and values, the country needs to step up."

Brexit: What Would Thatcher Do? Editorial of The New York Sun | March 20, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-what-would-thatcher-do/90616/What would Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher do in respect of Brexit? That's the question with which we're wrestling as the second woman premier to lead Britain, Theresa May, flounders toward the March 29 date by which, absent a deal or an agreed-upon delay, Britain will finally regain its independence. How would the Iron Lady handle what the nervous Nellies are calling a colossal constitutional crisis?Continue Reading

The British Parliament has voted to reject a no-deal Brexit after a chaotic evening in the House of Commons that laid bare divisions within the governing Conservative Party.

British lawmakers will today vote on postponing the date when Britain leaves the European Union. There are 15 days to go until the scheduled exit date of March 29.

British Prime Minister Theresa May is also expected to put her proposed Brexit deal before the British Parliament for a third time in the coming week even though Parliament has already rejected it on two occasions. May told members of Parliament that if her deal was not accepted, then Brexit may be delayed considerably.

What Would De Gaulle Do? Editorial of The New York Sun | March 6, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/what-would-de-gaulle-do/90598/What in the world is Charles de Gaulle going to think when he gets ahold of the latest op-ed piece from Emmanuel Macron? We understand that De Gaulle, the founding father of the Fifth Republic, has been dead for nigh fifty years. A lucky thing for him, too, given the way things are going in the land to which he addressed his immortal "Call to Honor."Continue Reading

Brexit: A Supreme Test of the BritishEditorial of The New York Sun | March 13, 2019https://www.nysun.com/editorials/brexit-a-supreme-test-of-the-british/90609/As the Mother of Parliaments wrestles with whether to bow to the voters of Great Britain or the mandarins in Brussels, here's what we will be thinking. We will be thinking how lucky Americans are that the Revolutionaries who founded our country struck for independence when they did. They seized independence when they had the chance, and it's made all the difference since.Continue Reading

Theresa May’s Lucky DefeatTheodore Dalrymple, City JournalTheresa May’s crushing defeat in the House of Commons yesterday over her plan for Britain to leave the European Union was actually a great victory for her, provided that you make a simple assumption: that she and her colleagues never wanted Britain to leave the EU in the first place. A majority of the British legislature is, and always was, opposed to Brexit. Those legislators who agitated most vociferously for it declined, when the time came, to carry out the policy, leaving it to a woman, already well known for her political maladroitness.Read more here....

Is Mexico a Failing State?By Alexander Grinberg, Strategy Bridge: "In 2009, U.S. Joint Forces Command released a statement expressing concerns over Mexico, highlighting the potential even then for a total collapse."

How Socialism Destroyed VenezuelaDaniel Di Martino, E21Many in the media have blamed Venezuela’s worsening humanitarian crisis on corruption, mismanagement, falling oil prices, or U.S sanctions—anything but the rise of socialism in what was once the wealthiest country in South America. Yet corruption and mismanagement were the direct result of increased government control of the economy—socialism—and in reality, lower oil prices and U.S. sanctions have little to do with the crisis. Read more here....

Middle Eastern Communities Can Resist SectarianismSectarian violence in the Middle East has been destructive, but it is still the exception rather than the norm. Communities are generally resilient to the worst sectarian impulses. Lessons from Lebanon, Bahrain, Syria, and Iraq show that there are a range of actions that can curb sectarianism. Read more »

Food aid programs provide rents to interest groups through cargo preference requirements and purchasing requirements raising program costs. As a result, US food aid is not efficiently achieving its goals of increasing US soft power and alleviating global hunger.