Recession: First cut will be deepest

Telegraph View: When expenditure cuts come, swingeing is what they will be.

George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, announced yesterday that we had reached "a decisive moment in the economic debate in Britain – a moment when Gordon Brown's argument on the deficit has collapsed and a new consensus for more decisive action emerges". He was responding to a letter in a Sunday newspaper by 20 economists arguing that the Government must act more quickly on the budget deficit, that the debt reduction set out in the pre-Budget report was too slow, and that cost-cutting should begin in the 2010-11 fiscal year.

The letter, signed by Sir Howard Davies, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, and Lord Desai, a Labour peer, was helpful to Mr Osborne, not just because it was closer to the Conservatives' position than to Labour's, but also because he can use it in his attempt to persuade his frontbench colleagues to cut sooner rather than later. Yet an important qualification needs to be made.

The economists were not going out on a limb: many leading commentators, including Mervyn King, have warned politicians that they must prepare to act ruthlessly to cut the deficit. This should be a statement of the obvious – and if it is not obvious, that is because politicians on both sides of the House are frightened of revealing the scale of the necessary cuts.

The Conservatives are a bit braver than Labour in this respect; but, if they take the economists' advice, as they must, they will reduce spending with a determination that will strike the millions of people affected as cruel and unnecessary. There will be a backlash: that is always the way with cuts. Although this latest letter is a signpost to eventual recovery, the journey will be a miserable one. David Cameron is worried about making "swingeing" cuts too soon; but, when they come, swingeing is what they will be.