10:24 PM, January 12, 2014

Detroit Free Press Business Writer

Toyota’s top North American executive said the industry will depend more on economic growth than pentup demand in 2014.

Jim Lentz, CEO of Toyota Motor North America, pointed to data on housing starts, gross domestic product growth and household net worth as reasons why consumers will buy vehicles they want instead of replacing old ones that have just worn out.

Toyota expects Americans to buy 16 million new cars and trucks this year, up from 15.5 million in 2013.

“That’s healthy growth, but slower than what we’ve seen in the past few years,” said Lentz, who capped off the Society of Automotive Analysts annual conference Sunday at Cobo Center. The conference marks the beginning of this year’s North American International Auto Show.

Toyota will introduce eight completely new or updated models this year and expects to sell 2.3 million vehicles in the U.S., or about 100,000 more than it sold in 2013.

Lentz also talked about future visions Toyota engineers have forged into such concepts as the Winglet, a Segway-like stand-up scooter that is maneuvered by the rider’s movements; and FV2, a tiny one-occupant car, that similarly moves as the driver shifts his weight in one direction or another.

Other speakers included William Strauss, senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who predicted that while new vehicle sales will keep growing this year, the increase will be slower than in the last two years.

Strauss forecast U.S. sales slightly higher than Lentz for this year — 16.1 million vehicles for 2014 and 16.5 million next year. Automakers sold 15.5 million new cars and trucks in 2013.

Brian Johnson, auto analyst with Barclays, said one area of concern is the slump in sales of small and midsize cars. Another trend that presents a challenge is a growing imbalance between the percentage of new car sales made to those 55 and older, and the shrinking portion bought by those under 40.

Without stronger job and income growth among younger consumers, the industry may face a mid- to long-term problem.

Johnson also suggested that some automakers might resist the steep increase in federal fuel economy standards that take effect between 2016 and 2025, especially if gasoline prices continue to stabilize or fall. That standard now requires manufacturers to achieve a corporate average of 54.5 miles per gallon across their fleets by 2025.