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Movement toward same-sex marriage (SSM), LGBT equality etc.

We use the acronym "SSM" throughout this section to represent "same-sex marriage"
We use the acronym "LGBT" to refer to lesbians, gays, bisexuals, transgender persons
and transsexuals. The acronym "LGB" refers to lesbians, gays, and bisexuals.

Additional developments during the second half of 2013-MAR:

2013-MAR-23: USA: Toronto Star features "The Rainbow Divide" article: Mitch Potter of the Star's Washington Bureau wrote an article about LGBT rights. The article begins:

"It might be a short road; it might be a longer road with a few jarring bumps to come. But as the U.S. Supreme Court readies to hear arguments next week on the question of gay marriage, the ultimate outcome is no longer in doubt.

Equality for all, same-sex or otherwise, will be the marital law of the land. A generation of young Americans, in jaw-dropping numbers, will accept nothing less. And time is on their side. ..."

"In barely a decade, support has nearly doubled with 58% of Americans now backing same-sex marriage according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey.

And the demographic clincher: 81 per cent of American adults under 30 back full equality. The opposition, concentrated among seniors, is dying away." 1 [Emphasis by us]

2013-MAR-23: NJ: Quinnipiac Universitypublishes remarkable polling results on the levels of support and opposition by New Jersey voters towards same-sex marriage.

By more than a 2 to 1 ratio, New Jersey voters support a law allowing same-sex couples to marry. Results were 64% in favor, 30% opposed. This is one of the highest degree of support that we have seen of any state -- if not the highest.

2013-MAR-25: Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post publishes startling graphs on SSM: One series of graphs shows that:

A majority of Democrats, Democratic leaning Independents, Republicans, and Republican-leaning Independents under the age of 50 all support SSM.

Among seniors (those 65 years-of-age and older) who are Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents, support for SSM has a 2 to 1 margin over opposition; among those under 65, their support for SSM is in excess of 3 to 1.

To find groups where the majority opposes SSM, you have to go to Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents 50 years-of-age or older -- an influential, powerful but small and shrinking minority. Even among these groups, opposition appears to be in free-fall and support appears to be rising rapidly.
2

Some religious and social conservatives find what they feel is an encouraging sign in these data. They conclude that as people age, they become more conservative, and less accepting of marriage equality. But, as usual, Steven Colbert's comment that "reality has a well known liberal bias" is true in this case as well. In fact, all age groups (Millennials, Generation X, Boomers and the Silent Generation) are have been steadily increasing in support for SSM and marriage equality by at least three times between 1988 and 2012:

2

2013-MAR-25: Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) endorses SSM: He sent an email to Time Magazine, saying:

"I support marriage equality because it is the fair and right thing to do. Like many Virginians and Americans, my views on gay marriage have evolved, and this is the inevitable extension of my efforts to promote equality and opportunity for everyone.

I was proud to be the first Virginia governor to extend antidiscrimination protections to LGBT state workers. In 2010, I supported an end to the military’s ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ policy, and earlier this month I signed an amicus brief urging the repeal of [the Defense of Marriage Act]. I believe we should continue working to expand equal rights and opportunities for all Americans." 3

2013-MAR-26: Big day today: The U.S. Supreme court heard oral arguments in the case Hollingsworth v. Perry. It will test the constitutionality of Proposition 8 -- the citizen initiative that terminated same-sex marriage in California on election day, 2008-NOV.

People have been camping out in the rain since MAR-21 in the hopes of being able to hear the case.

There have been many complaints by religious and social conservatives that the court may find Prop. 8 unconstitutional and thus override the votes of 7.00 million Californians who passed Prop. 8. They overlook two facts:

The vote was almost even; 6.4 million voted against Prop. 8.

The opinions of adults in California have shifted greatly since 2008-NOV. Surveys showed that in 2008, voters were almost evenly split on the citizen initiative. But at the present time, a healthy majority of Californians favor making marriage available to loving, committed same-sex couples. A poll by SurveyUSA on behalf of KPIX-TV found that:

67% of adults in California favored the restoration of SSMs

30% are opposed,

3% didn't know or refused to answer.

In addition,

52% want the Supreme Court to declare Prop. 8 unconstitutional

32% are in favor of upholding Prop. 8's constitutionality

17% didn't know or refused to answer.

This was a small poll of 500 adults, conducted between MAR-22 and 24. The margin of error is ±4.2 percentage points.

Thus, if Prop 8 were voted on again, it would be overwhelmingly defeated. 4