As the Astros play the final weekend before the All Star break, what better time to take a look at perhaps a part of the reason the organization finds itself trying to balance rebuilding with retooling and buying and selling.

If you want to see a snapshot of the Astros’ organizational woes, you need to look no further than the chart at the right and you’ll get the big picture. Since 2000, no organization has made fewer overall first round picks and seen fewer first round picks make it to the majors than the Astros.

Is it any wonder that experts designate the Astros as one of the weakest minor league systems? That’s the bad news.

The good news is that it could change soon as the most recent three No. 1s are promising and another (Brian Bogusevic) may be a phone call away from the majors.

As you can see, some teams have twice as many picks as the Astros. For the sake of this demonstration, we included sandwich picks, which are considered first round picks. A team is awarded a sandwich pick (between the first and second rounds) when another team signs one of its free agents.

The only first round pick to make it to the big show for the Astros is Chris Burke and we know all too well how that story turned out. Save that momentous 18th inning home run, the Burke debate centers around Craig Biggio, Jeff Kent, centerfield and playing out of position.

By contrast, from 1990-99, 11 of the Astros’ first round and first round supplemental picks made it to the majors.

So how do some teams have as many as 20 first round picks and the Astros come in at only nine? The answer is simple, yet frustratingly complex.

Among other things, the Astros did not offer arbitration to their free agents at the same rate as other teams. Some teams, like San Diego, racked up the picks.

The Astros gave up first round picks this decade in return for the signings of Jeff Kent (Giants picked David Aardsma), Andy Pettitte (Yankees chose Phillip Hughes), Carlos Lee (Rangers chose Blake Beaven).

By the same token, the Astros picked up Eli Iorg and Jordan Lyles as supplemental picks when the Mets signed Carlos Beltran and Tampa Bay signed Trever Miller.

The Astros could actually improve their 2000-2009 percentage as Jiovanni Mier, Jason Castro, Lyles and Bogusevic all are projected as major leaguers. But then again so were Derrick Grigsby and Robert Stiehl.

Perhaps you’ve noticed another oddity in the chart: The NL Central, often called the weakest division in the majors, has had fewer picks make it to the majors this decade. Only 19 of 71 overall first round picks by NL Central teams have tasted at least a cup of coffee in the big leagues. The Cubs (2) and Cardinals (3) have used other moves (both dollars and shrewd, under the radar signings and trades) to stay competitive.

Believe it or not, only Mark Prior was a difference-maker among the five picks of those two teams.

The Brewers have had the biggest success with Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks reaching the majors among Milwaukee’s 14 picks.

The Marines and Padres also have shown the least production, but the Padres may climb that ladder in the next couple of years following six first round choices in 2007 and another three in 2008.

Houston can start the next decade with a haul if it plays its cards right. With potential free agents like Jose Valverde, Latroy Hawkins, Miguel Tejada, Mike Hampton, Russ Ortiz and Ivan Rodriguez, general manager Ed Wade may tiptoe through the arbitration offering mine field in the hopes of picking up high draft picks. Valverde, Tejada, Hawkins and Rodriguez could all yield first round compensation picks if they are offered arbitration, then reject it and sign with another team. Ortiz and Hampton are both possibilities for Type B status.

There are many ways to build an organization, but as many general managers have determined, drafting players early and often raises the possibilities and spreads the risk of the overall draft. Having 24 first round picks in a decade instead of nine certainly demonstrates that.

The Astros have rededicated their efforts and future to the draft in recent years and the prospects could well turn the tide into the next decade and hopefully yield not only higher results in the numbers game, but another stretch of playoff years a la 1997-2005.

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38 Responses

You are right, neither of us know for sure. There are too many instances of Coop wanting “the veteran” in there though, and also a troubling record of him not handling young players well. Also, Coop didn’t bench Edwin when Kaz came back, he went to the bench almost a full week before that. Edwin made an error on a throw to Berkman late in a game one night and he went to the bench the next night, basically not to be heard from again. I think he made one more start after that in the week leading up to Matsui coming back. That and his lack of communication skills are what bring me to that conclusion. And as I said, I don’t think Maysonett or anyone else we have in the minors are likely to be a good major league 2b, but Edwin was hot and Coop just benched him in the middle of it.

Although I am happy and proud weve been aggressive in signing our picks, I still think we really need to make a splash. Aroldis Chapman. We ABSOLUTELY, POSITLVELY NEED to try and get this kid. That I havent heard anything about the Stros connected to him really disturbs me, the Yanks and BoSox cannot always have a monopoly on these players.

I say we go after him aggressively. A kid w/ his stuff (just below Strasburg’s) would reeally cahnge everything about our system.

How in the world do you know how Cooper felt about Maysonette? As I have written before, it is highly likely that the actions taken on Maysonette vis a vis Matsui were based on decisions made by Wade, Tal Smith, and/or McLane, who didn’t want the embarrassment of having a $5 Million player riding the pines. Interestingly, Maysonette’s BA at Round Rock is now far below what he hit for the Astros. One might wonder if the Astros screwed up another player, but if so, I would blame it on people above Cooper’s pay-grade.

I really fear that we are going to win these next two games, go into the break 2 games over .500, and Drayton is going to order Wade to move prospects for a mediocre starter. We can NOT move any of the few prospects that we have right now.

1) We have no legitimate 2b at the major league level and no top 2b in the minors. Would have loved to see Maysonette continue to play but Coop decided he didn’t like him so that’s that

2) We have a lazy 3b who cusses fans and hits .270 with 2 bombs. We have absolutely no 3b prospects in the minors that look like major leaguers.

3) While Coop would have you believe we have 6 starting pitchers in fact we have 2 plus 1 young guy with a great arm and 3 guys who if we placed on waivers not a single team would claim. I would love to see a rotation in the 2nd half of Roy, Wandy, Paulino, Norris and Fulchino…

We should move Pudge for whatever we can get and bring up Towles, to play not to sit.

Hopefully Valverde will get on a good roll and then we can move him for either a 3b or 2b. Either a great prospect at one of those spots or a good young major leaguer there. We have to fix one of those spots.

In making those two moves we havne’t really hurt our chances of winning anything this year. It is funny to me how everyone says how “tough” our schedule gets after the break with all these games against the Cards, Brew Crew and Cubbies. Heck, the only reason we are in the race is because those teams are as bad as we are!

“HOUSTON — Lance Berkman anointed teammate Michael Bourn as the Astros’ Most Valuable Player for the first half of the season prior to Friday’s game, and the speedy center fielder helped justify his case with his performance against Washington.

Bourn had two hits, including his third home run of the season, stole a base and threw out two runners at the plate to lead the Astros to a dramatic 6-5 win over the Nationals and into sole possession of third place in the National League Central.”

Hey Lowell, how is Willy T doing?

By the way, when was the last time Willy T. – even over a course of an entire season – has had as many as 8 triples that Bourn has now?

Answer: NEVER. The most triples Willy T. has had over an entire season is 5.

Question: When was the last time that Willy T. has has three home runs – even over the entire season as Bourn has now over half a season?

Answer: Once. the most HR’s Willy T has had over the entire season was 3 in 2005. That was with 267 more at bat’s than Bourn currently has.

Question: When has Willy T. had an OPS of .775 as Bourn has now?

Answer: NEVER. The highest OPS Willy T. has had is .749 and that was in 2007 when the Rockies played Willy very situationally – not every day as Bourn is now being played. Willy T’s career OPS is a pathetic .657 by the way.

Speaking of pathetic, what about Willy T’s career .325 OBP? That is pretty poor for a leadoff hitter. Bourn’s OBP is currently .363. Very solid.

Willy T is now in his 6th year and Bourn only in his 3rd, yet Bourn is already a way better all around player than Willy, while Willy continues to be one dimensional and unable to hit the ball out of the infield.

I woule be very surprised if Mclane and his yes people actually do an annual business plan for the astros. If so, you would take a long hard look at the minor league system and know that it is the life blood of the org. Strong attention should be placed on it annually. So why, is the minor league system in shambles if they did. I think the only planning he does is look at his cash balance at the end of the year, and say we are spending too much money, need to cut back. That is the extent of his annual planning.

“Either Tal Smith as Astros President is way past his prime or McLane doesn’t let the guys do their jobs.I believe history suggests his “interest” in day to day player development is really smothering behind the scenes. Nothing new there. Here’s hoping the “new” changes in GM and scouting work out.”

Bodeen..I agree, I think he is the biggest micro manager around. He smothers the organization. I would imagine the grocery moving business is quite not that way because its so big. He cant control it all. A baseball org. is managable for a micro manager.

Chip…………One thing you need to keep in mind….(if I remember correctly) Mclane and Co. didnt offer arbitration to several players for fear of having some of those they didnt want accept arbitration. That is poor decisionmaking. Its like hes watching the pennies whule the dollars are overhead flying by. The org needed those compensation picks. Mclane and Co. are just a poor excuse for ownership. Instead of making smart business decisions everything is based on being a tightwad. Those who defend Mclanes business practices, say hes a smart business. From what we have seen over th last several years, he has no clue how to run this type of business. He may know something about moving groceries from one location to another but he is a poor planner when it comes to baseball. Being a tightwad does not translate into a good business man. It just means you are a penny pincher.

Baseball is a funny sport. Chris Coste has a life time batting average of .282 but has never hit higher than .279 in a season. Isn’t this against the law of averages or something. Since he is going to be on the team tomorrow, how is leaving?

Bill, a death warrant means you could spell him for? After Paulino’s last Lidging, you have #5 WHOM waiting in the wings?

If anyone is to blame it’s the complete lack of communication which would cause such a hamstringing. Instead, somebody would need to say,

“Russ, you’re going to wear down sooner than the young bucks. So far, we got some pretty good stuff outta you. Now, good thing we’re prepared with those young arms ready to rest you up. OOOPS! We don’t. Ok, back to this being your fault. You weren’t hitting the strike zone last night…”

But that would require someone taking personal responsibility in baseball, and we all know those terms are not synonymous.

Andy, I didn’t realize the Astros have been playing baseball for eighteen hundred years. Seems they should be more games over .500 than that.

Why is it that everytime someone discusses facts, you think they’re bring negative? Part of the problem is we have had a front office wearing Andy New glasses for years…constantly saying everything was just “fine” when the organization decimated the farm system through dumb trades, bad scouting and horrible tactics in draft pick negotiations.

Rational people have an expression for that blind focus on the positive, and facts be damned: “putting lipstick on a pig”.

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All is not lost on the prospect front, Chip – we just grabbed this spring chicken.

You are spot on regarding the indictment of the front office for poor decision-making with regard to arbitration and free agency in the early to middle part of this decade and how it impacted the future of the farm system. While I know it is popular to harp on the failings of Tim Purpura and Paul Ricciarini, it takes 3-5 years to evaluate a draft so the chart you provided is primarily an indictment of the David Lakey era in scouting and drafting.

I’m typically more optimistic than most when it comes to the farm system, pollyanna at times perhaps, but the decline has been a long time coming. Thankfully Bobby Heck seems to have done a very fine job with his two drafts, but, again, the results are still years away.

Hello all – missed you, but had a great vacation (stay-cation actually, folks from TX came to see us for a change – can’t beat summer time highs temps of 79 with brilliant – as in unsmog effected – sunshine!).

One huge reason the current front office is doing a better job is that they are focusing draft picks – especially early rounders, on the best players – not need and not where they’re from. EW, Bennet, and Heck have earned my respect (why he plucked Coste off the waiver wire is still a puzzle, but I will have faith for now).

Really good work Chip.

Drayton has choosen to try to win with experience instead of developing experience within his best available prospects – it is the path to ever escalating payroll and no guarantee of winning. I think NYY missing the playoffs last season and not doing anything for so long – while the RedSox and Theo, and his do both approach – appear to have finally made an impression. We know that the build from within only approach of PIT and KC and OAK (and their failures) have made an impression.

Bogusevic really doesn’t look like anything special. He’s not like Chris Johnson, who actually looks awful. Bogusevic just looks like “a guy.” Maybe another year of AAA would help since he’s relatively inexperienced as a position player, but he just doesn’t seem close to ready for the next level. I’m hopeful to see some new blood come into Round Rock in the next couple of seasons, especially some of those Lexington arms.

I think I’ve suggested it before, but if the Astros are unable to move Tejada for legit prospects before the deadline, they should first offer a contract extension amenable to their budget. If he declines, offer arbitration. If he does not sign elsewhere and is awarded a contract that is too rich, they immediately cut him. They are then on the hook for 30 days salary.

I agree with Jayne. Pulling Russ in the the third was the right thing, and I gave the team a chance to come back. Russ should keep his mouth shut and take a team win. Oh, and he should pick up the pace a little. At his rate Coop probably thought it was the seventh.

Andy New is right as well. Chip, you are always focusing on the negative. Why can’t you be more like Andy New? Even his handle conjures images of Andy Griffith, Andy Kaufman, and Andy Capp. Do you even know that Hunter Pence is batting .500 in his last four plates appearances? Well do ya? Let’s have a little less doom and gloom and more rainbows and unicorns, huh? [sarcasm off].

Not offering arbitration is short-sighted. The Astros have been afraid to offer for fear the player will accept and win. That is likely to be the case again this off season. So they save a few bucks (potentially). In the end however they lose out on the opportunity to play cheaper young players. Hampton will cost the Astros $4MM, but Phil Hughes could occupy that spot for a lot less money.

If they want to discourage players from accepting arb, those that do should be shipped off to Detroit or Elbonia or some similarly dreadful place.

Good article, but it also highlights that draft picks don’t alone tranlate into playoff success and contention. Just look at Oakland’s 24 picks with 12 making it to the majors. I would think that Billy Beane in any other situation with a budget to work with could a team to the playoffs and contend for a championship. But the A’s haven’t done much in the playoffs over the last 2 decades.

On the other hand, it is a testament to GM’s skill in the NL Central to get their teams to the playoffs and have some modest to good success. I still have a hard time believing that the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series in the last 5 years.

The Astros have really been pretty fortunate for the last several years to have a team that was above average and competed as long as it did until the end of the season. Now the really hard part is to bridge the current average and over-aged team to a (hopefully) talented young core. Watching the GM moves behind the scenes lately has been much more compelling than the team itself. Wade’s earning his money.

“At $14 million this season, he’d certainly reap a contract in that range and the Astros can’t afford that.”

Chip, I understand your reasoning, but I personally do not think a $14M-plus arb award for Miggy is a foregone conclusion. Miggy’s hit totals, BA, and RBI numbers would definitely land him in that area if considered alone, but an arbitrator would also have to consider Miggy’s age, his significantly declining power numbers, and his very obviously declining defensive skills. The Astros have reels and reels of video in the can of Miggy making costly errors [like last night] and just not getting anywhere near balls that a major league shortstop should get to and make plays on.

The question is, how much should the Astros’ offer be at an arbitration? Since MLB arbitration is an either-or process, would a team offer of $5 million be so low as to guarantee Miggy’s projected $14M or more proposal won out? Probably so. But what if the team offered of $7.5 to 8.5 million? That is a lot of bread for one of the worst defensive shortstops in the league, who is getting visibly long in the tooth and slow in the foot, and who, while hitting a lot of singles, is now clearly a station-to-station base runner.

Here’s the question: Assuming the arbitrator bought it, would $8.5 to $10 million still be too much for one year worth of Miguel Tejada?

The problem is that player salaries tend not to go DOWN in arbitration. When you were over-paying for players (Pudge, Tejada, Hawkins), you almost have to decline arbitration.

Think about how Tejada will do in arbitration, versus in this free agent market. Also, it’s not a sure thing that any team would sign Pudge as a free agent, so he would definitely accept arbitration and take another million bucks. This is why we need to trade these guys if we can, now. With the exception of Valverde, we won’t be getting draft-pick compensation for these players if we keep them because we won’t offer arbitration.

As 4 your farm (theory) not helping many teams significantly, except for Brewers, it’s not so much the no-names who didn’t make it big. It’s the producers doing it another uni…

Think Lidge recaptures form bc he was in a new city, or maybe some other reason?

I think most everyone on this blog is ready to see the young talent have their shot. But we are heavily vested in Lee, Berkman, Roy, Miggy and KazMat — I doubt if there’s any room until we play out the hand.

Excellent and interesting research. It really demonstrates a faulure of this organization. It is easy to point to the weakness of the farm system – but more importantly, one needs to understand the root of the issue. This crystalizes it.

Andy New:

“The Astros record from 200-2009 is 799-731. That is 68 games above .500. Seems pretty succesful to me, got you on that one!”

The Yankees bettered that with a .562 winning percentage over that time. Yes, they had the payroll, but look at the chart Chip provided. They managed to end up with 6 additional 1st round picks than the Astros and 4 additional MLB players from their first round picks. This while winning the WS in 2000 (this after winning the WS 3 of 4 years prior) – How many WS championships do the Astros have again?

Winning percentage means little if you can’t win it all. Further, even if a team has a high winning percentage, they need to still be able to develop within. The Yankees, Red Sox, and any other team with a higher winning percentage than the Astros since 2000 have proven that an organization can compete while also building within. Other than one year, the Astros have not competed for the WS and they have the worst track record in respect to first round signings in the league.

It is unnaceptable and a serious flaw within the organization to both fail in respect to competing for a WS title as well as with first round signings. You would think the Astros could at least have been successful at one end of the spectrum seeing that several teams have been successful at both ends. But, they have not been successful at either.

Winning percentage alone means nothing. The organization as a whole has significantly failed. We are now left with no WS titles and the worst farm in the league.

Interesting article. Your analysis also shows that the quality of the picks is just as important as the quantity. The Rays only had one more first rounder than the Astros but had 7 reach the majors. Maybe we need to sign some of their scouts.

I wonder about the risks of offering arbitration this winter. Since purse strings are tight, and the players know that, will some of them(especially guys who wouldn’t attract that much interest anyway in the open market) simply accept arbitration? You’re right that it will be a minefield for Wade.

Speaking of Wade, I’m feeling pretty good about his tenure so far, especially in light of the apparent gains in the minor league system after just two years of drafting. Of course, as you have shown, it couldn’t have gotten much worse!

[Pac, I'm warming to Wade as well. It would be tough to offer arb to Tejada. At $14 million this season, he'd certainly reap a contract in that range and the Astros can't afford that. Valverde, given his tough season to date, may be a good risk, however. Pudge may depend on the development of Castro/Towles. CB]

Russ Ortiz is lucky to have a job in MLB this year. He needs to just shut his mouth and do what the manager says. Who does RO think he is? Roy Oswalt? He has not earned enough cred to speak out publicly like that. Roy has been angered by Coop this year, but he has never stated his displeasure to the press. This really irritates me.

By the way, great article Chip. Nice insight into our minor league system and the draft process.

Chip, ineteresting statistics, and while they may be true, they are very negative. Why not focus on the positive. I’ve got some statistics for you. The Astros record from 200-2009 is 799-731. That is 68 games above .500. Seems pretty succesful to me, got you on that one!

[Andy, as with any statistics, you can look at it however you wish. This particular "statistic" can be viewed through the glass, however, that the Astros have addressed the issue over the past few drafts and this "statistic" could actually change in a year or two when recent draft picks make it to the majors. CB]

Chip, this is off topic, but I really need to rant! Ortiz was whining to the media about Cooper taking him out after 3 innings. For once, I’m on Coop’s side. I was at both of last night’s games (including the one that lasted all of 7 minutes). ORTIZ STUNK TO HIGH HEAVENS LAST NIGHT. If Coop had let him throw one more pitch, I was going to leave because IMHO he would have been conceding the game.

Ortiz couldn’t find the strike zone with a compass, a seeing eye dog and a rifle scope last night. If you can’t find the stinking strike zone when your target is Adam Dunn, then you can’t find it. His team bailed him out a couple of times and he was really lucky that he didn’t give up more. If Coop had left him in, I think there was serious danger of a blowout for the Nationals.

With that said, earlier this season, Cooper apparently told Ortiz that he “wasn’t his kind of pitcher.” If true (and based on what we’ve seen of Cooper, it probably is), that statement is totally reprehensible and Ortiz has every right to call Cooper out. But last night Coop made the right call and Ortiz needs to shut up and get over it.

Rant over. Thank you for your indulgence.

[Jayne, I noticed the comments as well. While I didn't see Thursday's game, it's seems that the quotes were as much of a frustration with the season as that particular game. The All Star break may become very interesting. CB]

Wow!!!! Your chart shows just how much of an inexact science picking players really is across MLB. But having only 1 first rounder is really a huge failing in the Astros management brain-trust. Despite having a guy like Tal Smith either one of two things are going on, McLane’s rhetoric notwithstanding. Either Tal Smith as Astros President is way past his prime or McLane doesn’t let the guys do their jobs.I believe history suggests his “interest” in day to day player development is really smothering behind the scenes. Nothing new there. Here’s hoping the “new” changes in GM and scouting work out.

Do you think Drayton would be as willing of a spender on the major league team if he starts spending more to sign draft picks?

[Mickey, signing the draft picks shouldn't significantly affect the funds available to sign free agents. For the most part, the Astros have been signing most of their picks. A few high-profile players weren't signed, so I don't expect the major league payroll would be greatly affected. But it could have another affect if they actually increase the number of picks as some teams have using the compensation picks. He may not need to "affect" the major league payroll as much by adding more draft picks, if that makes sense. CB]