11 Alive Says Kingston and Deal Lead

11 Alive has released the results of a new poll that show Congressman Jack Kingston leads David Perdue by 11 points (MoE +/- 4.9). It also shows that either Republican candidate has a convincing lead on Michelle Nunn. The same poll has Governor Nathan Deal leading State Senator Jason Carter by 6 points (MoE +- 3.2).

As with one of the recent polls showing Carter in the lead, we’re seeing high single digits (i.e. 6-9%) for Libertarian candidates. I find that a bit hard to believe, and it is probably at least partly a result of disgruntled GOP primary voters. Recent gubernatorial and Senate elections have had the Libertarian around 1-3%. You have to figure some of those will come around by November, and those votes should break at least 2:1 to the R candidates.

i think the pool of leaning libertarian voters in GA is actually at abt 10%, but that their vote is obscured by the tendency to want to vote for electable candidates. ppl’s responses to surveys are always more ideological then their votes, which are more practical.

Deal beat Barnes by almost 10 points……That is why this election looks like a 7 to 5 point advantage to the GOP. Which falls in line with the trend of Georgia heading toward a toss up state by 2020 by most experts…..unless GOP reaches out better to young and minorities…..The only real curve ball is if Hillary brings out women like Obama brought out minorities…And Georgia had a strong female statewide candidates in 16. As I said Nunn looks like she is positioning herself for a 16 run…..and hoping Johnny steps away, because he wins no matter what…..I do think Nunn has run a very smart campaign so far…As I said before, I do not see how she wins….but she is putting herself in a good position for the future….The real number is how close she gets within 5 points….that tells you the future…

In other words – at 24% of the electorate and ~69% of the vote, a Democrat would get just under 17% of their total vote from black voters. At 29% and 90%, that number rises to 26% of their vote. Not saying that you should necessarily do this to every poll you run across, but Nunn and Carter would both have leads with these minor changes.

Particularly in the Governor’s race, no Republican can win that only gets 58% of the white vote.

In conclusion, a poll that shows black voters only making up 24% of the electorate (they haven’t made up that small of the electorate since 2004/2006), shows Hispanics making up 7% of the electorate (they’ve never been anywhere close) and shows Republicans in the high teens of the black vote and Democratic candidates getting less than 70% – I would argue this is not one of the better polls of the election cycle, though it does show a result that many on this site will agree with.

Beyond the racial elements you note, Chris, consider that the likely voter pool has conservatives at 40% and liberals at only 15%, 52% of voters with a college degree, 39% of voters with incomes over $80,000, and only 35% of the state’s voters from the Atlanta region.

In other words, this poll has a likely voter screen that is almost certainly undercounting votes for Nunn and Carter. Republicans would do well to remember that Gallup and some other pollsters used an overly aggressive likely voter screen in 2012. I’d much rather look at a registered voter poll than a likely voter poll at this point.