1. How “globalized” is the world really?

The majority of businesses say they want to become more global. And business leaders say that the lack of people with global intelligence is the key constraint holding them back. This course will address both gaps — at the business and the personal level, it will focus on practical strategies for dealing with the real consequences of globalization.

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從本節課中

Week 1

Welcome to Week 1 of Globalization of Business Enterprise!
We are delighted that you have chosen to take this course and look forward to engaging with you in the coming weeks, as we complete this journey through globalization together.
In the following sections, you will find some important information to help you get off to a strong start in the course and to begin your learning in Week 1.

教學方

Pankaj Ghemawat

腳本

[MUSIC] Welcome to the Globalization of Business Enterprise course on the Coursera platform. In this first introductory session to the course, we are going to accomplish four agenda items. First of all, I'm going to present some data on how global the world actually is, and compare it with some intuitions from past Coursera students. Second, I'm going to discuss some of the questions that frequently arise around the data. Third, I'm going to address why our responses to many questions about globalization seem to display the biases that they do. And then finally, I'm going to talk about why it's important, both at a country level and at a company level, to have an accurate perspective on globalization levels. So let's start off by looking how globalized the world actually is, and how that compeers with intuitions. Here, it's useful to begin with the pre-class survey that you filled out. And one of the questions you're asked in the pre-class survey is which of these three very different quotes about globalization comes closest to agreeing with how you think about how far globalization has progressed. And so the first quote corresponds to what I think of as World 1.0. And while I don't know how many of the people currently watching this video opted for this alternative, I do know that the last time I taught Coursera in a batch, the batch of students that answered the survey. Of them 11% picked this vision of a world in which national borders are so high that to a first approximation, cross border interactions can be ignored. In terms of where the most support was in the previous batch of Coursera students, it was for the other extreme characterization of how globalized the world is. A world in which national borders are assumed to be so minute and so ineffective, that stuff zips back and forth across them, effectively without much of an impediment at all. And this alternative attracted support from 61% of the students who were in the last batch of Coursera. And then finally, the middle of the road quote, what I think of as a world in which you can ignore neither the borders between countries nor the interactions across them. That attracted a limited amount of support, 27% of the respondents in the last batch of Coursera opted for this alternative. So looking at the pattern of previous responses to this question, it does seem that a majority, and a large majority of people were willing to agree with an extreme characterization of globalization in which it's essentially complete. In which national borders really don't matter. Now of course, that's an opinion, and as Daniel Patrick Moynihan once suggested, everybody's entitled to their own opinion, but not to their own facts. So as we look at these responses, to go a little bit farther, you were asked to also guess quantitatively of something that could happen either domestically or internationally. What was the international component as a percentage of the total? Again, I don't have your responses in front of me, but I do have responses from the previous batch of Coursera students. So let's see how the actual values compare with the previous batch's average responses. Well, these are the actual values, so immigrants as a percentage of world population account for 3% of the total. Telephone calls depends on whether you're considering plain old telephone service or also including Skype and other Voice Over IP calls. If you just focus on plain old telephone service, the answer is about 2% of calling minutes last year were international. If you also include Skype etc., that might push the ratio as high as 4%. Third, as a measure of cross border capital flows, think of foreign direct investment, normalized by gross fixed capital formation. As a proxy for all the investment that went on in the world, last year that was well under 10%. And then finally, the variable that sometimes does get talked about is exports as a percentage of world GDP or total world economic activity. The nominal number from the World Trade Organization is about 32%. However, that number embodies a lot of double and triple counting. So that for instance ,when an iPhone component is shipped from Korea to China, and then iPhone is shipped to the US, that component ends up getting counted more than once. If we correct for such double and triple counting, according to the World Trade Organization, exports last year accounted for 22% of world GDP. So these are the actual values, now let's look very quickly at what the previous batch of Coursera students guessed these actual values to be. And as we look at these actual values, what becomes clear is that there was a robust tendency towards overestimating these facts about globalization. This is what I very neutrally refer to as Globaloney. [MUSIC]