AAP and BJP fight it out, claim Delhi through surveys

After the December 4 polls in Delhi, the national capital will be ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) or the Bharatiya Janata Party, depending on whose survey findings you choose to believe.

The fledgling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would win between 45 and 50 of Delhi's 70 assembly seats, announced party chief Arvind Kejriwal on Friday, citing the results of the third phase of an internal survey. "We are set to get between 45 to 50 seats in Delhi. We are ahead in 33 constituencies," Kejriwal said.

"We are no longer spoilers in Delhi. We are the top contenders now," he added. The first two phases of the AAP survey were carried out in February and August.

"The party needs to work on 21 seats, where it is trailing, but is on recoverable ground. Twelve seats show a significant trail," said Yogendra Yadav, party leader and social scientist. "We will improve in the next 50 days. It is only in 16 seats where we are trailing by a considerable margin," he added.

Not surprisingly, the BJP survey, that hasn't been released officially, is at sharp variance with AAP's.

The AAP survey showed the party increasing its vote share to 28% now from 26% in August. [The figure Kejriwal announced (45-50 seats) is based on projections with the underlying assumption that AAP's vote share will increase at a similar pace as it has done since August.] The AAP survey's corresponding figures for the Congress and BJP vote share are 28% and 24%, respectively.

But the BJP survey gives the saffron party a vote share of 37.5%, up from 32.7% in August. AAP gets a measly 6% vote share in the BJP survey.

Similarly, the AAP survey showed Kejriwal, the AAP's possible chief minister candidate, as the most popular choice for chief minister with 36% respondents voting for him over incumbent Sheila Dikshit (30%) and BJP leader Vijay Goel (21%). The BJP survey put Goel and Dikshit ahead with 20% votes each, with Kejriwal getting just 12%.

It would be logical to assume that AAP made inroads because of its stance against corruption. But its survey indicated 'corruption' was an issue for only 3%. Drinking water concerns Delhi the most; with 28% voting for it. Contradicting AAP's findings, the BJP survey showed corruption as an issue for 15.7% voters.

Biswajeet Das, sociologist, Jamia Milia Islamia, advised people to take internal surveys with a spoonful of salt. "These surveys have no credibility. The parties want to show whatever suits them. This is only an opinion buildup exercise."

The AAP survey was conducted between September 5 and October 5 among 34,425 people in all 70 constituencies. Roughly 500 people were surveyed in each constituency. BJP sources said 71,230 respondents were interviewed for its survey that was carried out in just a week.