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USD/JPY has been quite soft as it is losing momentum across the boad that lead the price to reside below 113.00 area with a daily close. Despite uncertain trading sentiment on USD, the greenback has been keeping momentum over JPY despite upbeat economic reports from Japan.

Today Japan's Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to -0.30T from the previous figure of -0.14T which was expected to be a -0.48T. Though Japan published better-than-expected data today, a deficit in the trade balance compared to the previous figure dealt a blow to the Japanese currency. Tomorrow BOJ Governor Kuroda is going to speak about the financial sector development and further monetary policy decisions. His speech is expected to be hawkish in nature leading to further sustainable gains on the JPY side.

On the USD side, despite the positive CPI and Retail Sales reports, USD has been struggling to keep momentum over JPY. As a result, JPY has been able to gain impulsive momentum. USD was hurt by the dovish comment of FED Vice Chair Richard Clarida who said that the central bank could revise its plans on monetary tightening amid concerns about a slowdown in the global economic growth. Today US NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 67 from the previous figure of 68. Besides, FOMC Member Williams is going to speak. His speech is expected to be quite neutral with the modest impact on the currency. Moreover, tomorrow US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M.

Meanwhile, USD is expected to gain certain momentum over JPY, but it is expected to be quite short-term while any positive hints from the BOJ Governor are expected to lead to further gains on the JPY side with better sustainability for the long term. Until the interest rate dilemma in USD is cleared up, USD is expected to be quite indecisive and weak against JPY in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish with the gains after the recent bearish pressure which indicates a retracement is in the progress. As the price pushes higher towards 113.00 area, it is expected to push lower towards 112.00 and lower in the coming days. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure today despite the recent correction at the edge of $5,500 area. The price is currently residing just few pips above $5,000 area from where it is expected to bounce higher towards $6,000 area in the coming days. Under the current market conditions, $5,000 is one of the most important price area in the Bitcoin market so far. If the price manages to bounce higher, then further consistent bullish pressure can be expected. Otherwise, a break below $5,000 with a daily close may lead to a drastic fall towards $3,500 in the future. As the price remains above $5,000 with a daily close, the odds that the price could push higher towards $6,000 in the future.

EUR/USD has been quite impulsive amid the bullish pressure recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.1430-1.1500 resistance area. EUR is able to gain momentum over USD despite the Italian budget jitters while FED's dovish sentiment knocks dollar down.

Recently ECB President Draghi's speech was quite optimistic and positive which provided some insights into the economic development in the recent 5 years. It made a great impact on the EUR gains. Today the eurozone's Current Account report was published with a decrease to 16.9B from the previous figure of 24.3B which was expected to be at 24.2B. Moreover, throughout the day the Eurogroup meeting is being held. Germany's Buba Monthly Report was released. Its positive sentiment provided the room for the buyer to sustain the momentum in EUR. Ahead of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting minutes, EUR is likely to assert its strength.

On the other hand, due to uncertainty of another rate hike this year, USD is losing momentum over EUR. Despite the positive CPI and Retail Sales reports, USD is struggling for gains over EUR that indicates the weakness of the American currency in the process. The dollar was hurt by the dovish comment of FED Vice Chair Richard Clarida who spoke about a slowdown in the global growth which signals the Fed's hesitation about a steady pace of monetary tightening. Today US NAHB Housing Market Index report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 67 from the previous figure of 68. FOMC Member Williams is going to speak. His speech is expected to be quite neutral with the modest impact on the currency. Moreover, tomorrow US Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.26M from the previous figure of 1.24M and Housing Starts is also expected to increase to 1.23M from the previous figure of 1.20M.

Meanwhile, EUR is quite optimistic on the back of the political developments despite the recent worse economic reports and Italy's budget issue. On the other hand, USD is currently weakening amid expectations of the upcoming events, especially the Fed's policy meeting. If the eurozone manages to provide upbeat economic reports, it will secure further gains on the EUR side.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing higher with impulsive momentum towards 1.1500 area from where it is expected to have a bearish counter-move, making the price follow the trend in the future. As the price remains below 1.1500 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue with a target towards 1.1200-1.1300 support area in the coming days.

Buyers of the European currency are focused on the resistance of 1.1429 today, which I talked about in more detail in my morning forecast. We can see that it was not possible to break through above from the first time, however, the euro did not fall quickly either. his suggests that buyers are preparing for the breakthrough of 1.1429, and during the next test, I recommend opening long positions at the breakdown in order to update already new weekly highs around 1.1456 and 1.1485, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD in the afternoon, it is best to consider buying the euro on a rebound from the major support 1.1381.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears tried to prove themselves in the first half of the day after the update of last week's high in the area of resistance at 1.1429 but there was no major fall from this level. Despite this, as long as trading continues below 1.1429, the pressure on the euro will continue since there is a clear divergence on the MACD indicator, which could lead the pair to the lower border of the channel 1.1380, where I recommend taking profits. The main task of sellers will be a breakthrough and consolidation under the level of 1.1380, which will quickly push the euro to a minimum of 1.1329, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.1429 area could lead to a sharp rise in the euro.

The bears did not allow the pound buyers to break through the resistance level of 1.2877, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the challenge is still breaking through at 1.2877, which will open a direct road to the area of maximum at 1.2962, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound in the second half of the day, support will be found at the level of 1.2780, however, it is best to open long positions to rebound from the low of 1.2725.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The failure to consolidate above the resistance of 1.2877 led to the sale of the British pound, which I spoke about in my morning forecast. A decline and breakdown of support at 1.2780, which is the current target of the GBP/USD pair, will lead to a larger sale with testing of 1.2725 and minimum of 1.2662 where I recommend taking profits. n the case of positive news on Brexit, a break of 1.2877 will lead to an increase in pounds. In such a scenario, it is best to open short positions to rebound from the highs of 1.2962 and 1.3039.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the 30- and 50-day average, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The Bollinger Bands indicator indicates a decrease in volatility and does not give signals on the market entry.

On the chart of the Japanese yen major pair, a downward wave has been developing since July. It shows a wrong appearance, forming a correction trend of a larger scale.

Wave pattern on the H1 chart:

The downward zigzag that began on October 4 completes the wave of the higher H4 timeframe. The structure formed the first 2 parts (AB).

Wave pattern on the M15 chart:

The wave of November 12 is moving down. It is expected to be completed in the area of support consolidation.

Recommended trading strategy:

Sales can be recommended for intraday trading. Investment supporters are advised to refrain from transactions until the current downward wave is completed.

Resistance zones:

- 114.20 / 114.70

Support areas:

- 111.70 / 111.20

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). For the analysis, three main TFs are used. On every last part, the incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal.

The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure while the dotted shows the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

A sharp turn of the Australian dollar in the first half of November begins to convince Forex traders that the worst days for the currency may be behind.

Australia put the brakes on a recession in 2018 and reached 10 percent in October, influenced by signs of Sino-US trade tensions weakening, improved terms of trade and robust employment prospects.

Today, there is a sharp reversal of the currency, which until recently was the worst performer among the major currencies this year. Burdened by the actions of the Central Bank, it seems like they intend to keep interest rates at a record low in the long run.

Just a few weeks ago, the Australian dollar was testing 70 US cents, firmly entrenched in a bearish trend that stretched back in January.

According to the senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney, Sean Callow, the decrease in the Australian dollar to annual lows is becoming less and less likely. e expects that any reduction to the key psychological level at the end of the year will be short-lived, and suggests that the currency pair will trade around 0.72 by 2019, which is partly due to stimulus efforts from China, who is Australia's largest trading partner.

The demand for risky assets may slow down again since the APEC summit did not produce the desired results in the negotiations between the US and China on trade relations. Traders should pay attention to the purchases when the support area of 1.1380 decreases and a false breakdown is formed at this level. Otherwise, it is best to open long positions for a rebound from the minimum of 1.1329, where a larger lower boundary of the ascending channel will be formed. The main task of the euro buyers today will be the breakdown and consolidation above the resistance 1.1430, which will lead to testing of 1.1356 and 1.1485 highs, where I recommend taking profits.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Bears can prove themselves after the last week's high update in the area of resistance at 1.1429 and the formation of divergence on the MACD indicator in this scenario will be a direct signal to open short positions in euro to reduce to the lower border of the channel at 1.1380, where I recommend to fix profits. The main task of sellers will be a breakthrough and consolidation under the level of 1.1380, which will quickly push the euro to a minimum of 1.1329, where I recommend taking profits. There is not expected important fundamental statistics to be released today, which may limit the upward potential of the EUR/USD pair.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-day moving average, which maintains the upward trend in the pair.

Bollinger bands

The upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator located in the area of 1.1435 can limit the upward potential in euros and when tested, I recommend selling the euro for a rebound. In the case of a decline in the euro, the lower limit of the indicator in the 1.1370 area will be a good level for purchases.

The EUR / USD pair has completed growth to the correctional level of 76.4% at 1.1423. Reversal of the quotation from the Fibo level of 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the American dollar and a slight drop in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% at 1.1303. On November 19, a bearish divergence is forming near the MACD indicator, which will increase the likelihood of a rebound from a Fibo level of 76.4%. Fixing the rate above the correction level of 76.4% will work in favor of further growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% at 1.1497.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries from August 15, 2018 and September 24, 2018.

Daily

On the 24-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair closed above the correction level of 127.2% at 1.1285. As a result, the process of growth of quotations can be continued in the direction of the next Fib level of 100.0% at 1.1553. There are no maturing divergences on the current chart. A rebound of the pair from the correction level of 100.0% will make it possible to expect a reversal in favor of the dollar and a return to the correctional level of 127.2%.

The Fibo grid was established on the boundaries from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

You can make purchases of the EUR / USD pair with a target of 1.1497 and a Stop Loss order below the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair closes above the 1.1423 level.

You can sell the EUR/USD pair with a target of 1.1303 and the Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 76.4% if the pair bounces the correction level of 1.1423, especially in conjunction with the bearish divergence.

According to analysts of the largest bank Citi, in the near future, the rate of the American currency will slightly increase in relation to other world currencies, and then it will face a significant decline.According to experts of the bank, after the recent elections to the US Congress, there was an increase in the value of the US dollar, despite the active bullish trend in the market. "The stock market first grew significantly, and then collapsed along with the yield of US Treasury bonds," emphasize Citi experts.According to forecasts of financial banking strategists, in the next three months, the US currency will rise in price against the currencies of the Big Ten countries (G10) by about 1%. After 6-12 months, the US dollar will fall in price against them by 2%, experts believe. Recall that the countries of the Big Ten earlier included Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In 1964, Switzerland joined the G10, but the name of the organization remains the same. The Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) participate in the G10 as observers.In the long run, the financial and economic support provided to the American economy may weaken, according to Citi. It will be replaced by a tough monetary policy that will slow down the growth rate of the US GDP, and this will negatively affect the retention of leading positions in relation to other countries.Bank experts focus on the so-called "triple deficit" of the United States, which still remains high and requires funding from foreign investors. Currently, absolute and relative rates in the United States are attractive to businessmen, but as the economy slows down, the situation will change. As a result, the rate of the American currency will be under pressure, experts believe. Analysts believe that geopolitical problems in Europe will have some support for the US dollar in the medium term. They mainly relate to the situation in Italy and the negotiations about Brexit.

The monetary policy of the European Central Bank will remain easy even after it is likely to stop its bond purchase program next month, and only after that can it begin to normalize its policies if necessary, said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, one of the directors of the ECB.The regulator should complete its bond purchase program with a budget of 2.6 trillion euros next month, paving the way for a possible increase in interest rates in the middle of next year, which will be the first in the last eight years. Collapsing this program is part of a long road to monetary policy normalization."Net purchases are likely to end in December. However, the completion of our asset purchase program does not mean the end of our monetary incentives, we are still far from this," Villeroy said, adding that after asset purchases cease, it is very important to adapt the pace of policy normalization depending on new economic data.For these purposes, the ECB has three tools: reinvesting its assets, interest rates, and bank refinancing operations. Regarding consistency, Villeroy said that he would prefer to slow the pace of reinvestment only after the first interest rate increase. The ECB could also revise liquidity and loans to banks if the need arises, although not necessarily under the same conditions that were possible in the past.

The euro is one of the few who lost to the dollar, minus 0.1 percent, despite the fact that it has been steadily holding on for the last four trading sessions, despite the weaker economic data. In general, the single currency looks good. Since November 13, the euro rose by 2.7 percent against the pound, in this case, the uncertainty about the deal with the UK plays into his hands.

The main engine of growth remains exclusively antidollar flows and risk appetite, and there is every reason to expect continued growth this week, despite the weakness of the PPI report in Germany or PMI in the eurozone. The British pound, which fluctuated around $ 1.2832, is still undergoing a strong sell-off amid the turmoil caused by the failure of the project of British Prime Minister Theresa May.

It is expected that the currency will remain under this pressure until the market gets more clarity regarding the progress of the Brexit transaction. And hope for it in the near future is not necessary. Prime Minister May's draft agreement, which was publicized, was criticized, several ministers even resigned in protest. Since local lawmakers are unhappy with the draft agreement, it is unclear whether it will be able to get the support of parliament, which increases the risk that Britain will leave the EU without a deal.

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC has traded downwards. As I expected, BTC reached my Friday's target at $5.170. Since the selling presure is still strong, my advice is to watch for selling opportunities. Watch for a potential breakout of the support ($5.170) to confirm further downward continuation. The projected downward target is set at the price of $4.795 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Support/Resistance

$5.614 – Intraday resistance

$5.170– Intraday support

$4.795 – Objective target

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The dollar passed back slightly compared to other major currencies, after Fed officials expressed concerns about global growth, prompting traders to overestimate the rate of increase in US interest rates.This year, the dollar has achieved great success thanks to the efforts of the Fed in the struggle for a sustainable economy and due to wage growth. The fourth rate hike this year is expected next month, and another two are forecast by June 2019. The recent comments by Richard Clarida, the new vice-chairman of the Fed, questioned the planned stages of tightening policy. Clarida warned of a slowdown in global growth, stating that "this is what will matter" for the prospects for the US economy.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan separately noted the slowdown in Europe and China. All of these comments may hint that the Fed intends to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening, and force traders to doubt the strength of the dollar. Now it's worth waiting for the speech of the New York Fed President John Williams and sees if he will continue the theme begun by his colleagues. Not forgetting that the Fed has always remained dependent on data.For now, it can be said for sure that the dollar is in turmoil. The currency did not just take a pause, but rolled back, losing the opportunity to gain a foothold at the next mark and move up again. In such a position, it is difficult to predict the next course direction. The dollar is now like a tensioned spring, and in which direction it will shoot, primarily depends on the comments of the Fed.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2869. According to the H1 time – frame, I have found that price is trading above the 24H moving average and that there is a fake breakout of the swing low at the price of 1.2825, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities above the price of 1.2880. The upward target is set at the price of 1.3030 (key short-term resistance).

According to experts, the cost of black gold reference brands showed strong growth at the beginning of the week. In this case, analysts warn that you should not count on a long-term recovery of the trend.According to Phil Flynn, a strategist at Price Futures Group, the resumption of oil exports from Kirkuk province last Friday had a restraining effect on the black gold market. Many analysts believe that oil prices have already struck the bottom and will return to trading in a fairly narrow range after recovery.Most investors fear oversupply of oil in the global market, while demand growth is weakening. According to Bank of America experts, after the oil quotations went down to the "bearish" trend and the liquidation of most of the "long" positions of hedge funds, the market became much more active.Last Friday, futures for Brent crude oil increased by 0.2% to $ 66.76 per barrel. The cost of WTI light crude oil remained almost unchanged, remaining at $ 56.46 a barrel.Over the previous five trading sessions, prices for Brent and WTI decreased by 4.9% and 6.2% respectively. The current decline was the sixth in a row, which was not observed in the last three years.Futures for Brent crude on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures with delivery in January rose by 0.82% to $ 67.31 a barrel. The contract for WTI oil for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 1.2% to $ 57.14 a barrel.

On Monday, November 19, the yellow metal becomes cheaper as investors take profits. Recall that last week, this precious metal went up by more than 1%.The cost of the December gold futures on the New York stock exchange Comex fell by 0.3%, to $ 1,219.3 per troy ounce. Silver futures for December delivery fell 0.33% to $ 14,335 per troy ounce.Experts recorded a correction in the gold market after a 1.2% increase in the most demanded metal amid growing demand for safe assets. Most analysts are optimistic about the future price of the yellow metal. According to Mark O'Brien, director of research at GoldCore, geopolitical risks can support the cost of the precious metal and help its rise in 2019.Investors in the United States made statements last Friday largely on investor sentiment. Recall that the regulator expressed concerns about the prospects for the global economy. Market participants believe that this could provoke a rise in the base rate in the United States, putting pressure on the US currency and supporting the value of gold. At the moment, the market expects a fourth-time increase in interest rates in the United States and a series of increases in the next year.

The euro strengthened its position against the US dollar at the close of trading on Friday, as weak fundamental data indicated the possibility of a likely slowdown in interest rate growth next year in the United States. Such concerns were expressed by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, who spoke at the end of last week.

Despite the fact that the Deputy Chairman of the Federal Reserve System, Richard Clarida, spoke mainly about the positive aspects of the economy, it was clear that the Fed could reconsider its predictions of rising interest rates, based on newly received fundamental data.

Clarida said federal funds rates are slightly higher than inflation for the first time in a decade, but there is no negative impact on the US economy.

In his opinion, the Fed needs to be especially guided by economic data at present, even though the US economy is in good condition. Clarida reiterated the words of the Fed head that the interest rate is now below the neutral level, but it is gradually approaching it, in connection with which, it is very important to focus on the data.

As for inflation, the representative of the Fed does not expect its strong growth next year, and if that happens, he will correct his forecasts.

As for the fundamental data, they hurt the US dollar at the end of last week, which led to its decline against risky assets.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production in the United States in October of this year, although it showed growth, worse than economists' forecasts, which casts doubt on the likelihood of the rates of previous economic growth by the end of this year. As can be seen from the report, manufacturing production was offset by a drop in production in the mining sector.

Thus, industrial production in October 2018 increased by 0.1% compared with the previous month, while economists had expected growth of 0.2%. Compared with the same period of the previous year, industrial production in October increased by 4.1%.

Manufacturing production increased by 0.3% in October compared with the previous month, while production in the mining industry fell by 0.3%.According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the manufacturing index in November of this year increased compared with the previous month. According to the report, the production index in November was 15 points against 8 points in October. But the annual growth, on the contrary, has slowed. The index was 40 points against 45 points in October.Americans continue to live in debt, increasing their debts more and more. According to the data, the debt of American households in the 3rd quarter of this year increased due to an increase in all types of borrowing.As indicated in the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the total debt of households in the 3rd quarter rose to 13.51 trillion dollars. Total mortgage debt amounted to 9.14 trillion dollars, while debt on auto loans rose to 1.27 trillion dollars.As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD currency pair, the upward trend will be limited at the beginning of the week, since investor risk appetite may decrease due to the failed APEC summit, where the leaders of the countries did not sign a joint statement after the meeting. Disagreements between the US and China have only increased, which further alienates the prospect of the possibility of signing a trade agreement.The growth of the euro is limited by the resistance of 1.1440, from where large sellers can come back to the market, putting on the further medium-term strengthening of the US dollar. Good support levels for the pair, from which new long positions can be viewed, can be traced around 1.1370 and 1.1330.

On Friday, two FOMC members almost synchronously voiced fears of a slowdown in the global economy, expressing the view that weak growth could lead to a revision of the Fed's benchmarks in terms of the neutral rate to the downside. On Monday, the probability of a rate hike at the meeting on December 19 is 68.9%, for March the expectations barely exceed 40%, which indicates a rather significant increase in doubts.

The dollar is losing momentum, and the obvious problems in the eurozone and the UK related to the Italian budget and Brexit are keeping it from starting a corrective decline.EurozoneFor the euro, the week starts with a negative. Despite the fact that on Friday, the inflation report came out at the level of expectations, the growth of the base index by only 0.1% in October is not at all what should inspire the ECB to implement the plan for exiting soft monetary policy. Business activity in the manufacturing sector declines for the third month in a row, falling to 52p, and the November report, which is expected on Friday, is unlikely to be positive due to the deterioration in the forecast for stocks.

The main question of the day is the budget of Italy. On Wednesday, November 21, the outcome is expected. The European Commission will publish a report that will set strict requirements for the Italian government to provide a plan to reduce public debt and reduce the expenditure side of the budget, otherwise the requirement of a deposit of 0.2% is likely, which will be used later to pay the fine in case Italy continues to violate the eurozone budget rule. Needless to say, such a measure could lead to the question of Italy's withdrawal from the eurozone.For the euro, this development is negative, but the aggravation of the conflict is not included in the plans of either party since the EU does not intend to encourage centrifugal processes. Nevertheless, there are no reasons for optimism, given Italy's refusal to look after the budget, the euro will remain under pressure in the short term.Today, trading is likely in the range with low volatility. The likely growth of EUR / USD is limited by the resistance of 1.1460 and support of 1.1340.Great BritainThe Brexit agreement may be signed at the EU summit on November 25, since May managed to defend his position in the Cabinet of Ministers, the government agreed to sign the agreement in the current version.At the same time, the chances of passing an agreement in parliament are low. The House of Commons consists of 650 deputies, 639 of them are voting, and May needs to collect at least 320 votes. Currently, the number of its supporters does not exceed 270 people, while at least 278 will vote against, the question is whether May will be able to incline those who hesitant for the remaining days, which, according to British observers, looks unlikely.Markets, however, can take the current situation positively, because the project has passed the Cabinet of Ministers, despite a number of high-profile resignations. The pound is unlikely to continue to decline, the recent low of 1.2694 has stood and will serve as a guideline as a support, on Monday, some GBP / USD will strengthen to 1.2930 and further to 1.3015.OilOil prices continue to fall, despite some stabilization measures taken by OPEC +. A cursory glance at the reason for the fall in quotations indicates the introduction of sanctions against Iran, but upon closer examination, this argument does not stand up to criticism. The growth in production of some OPEC countries to compensate for the loss of Iranian oil is low, and the likelihood of a new agreement to restrict production in a further decline in prices and is clearly a bullish factor.The reason most likely lies in the growing risks of a slowdown in the global economy. Stock indices are steadily declining, the threat of a recession in the USA is growing, which is perceived by players as a hint of the approach of a slowdown in global growth. There is a positive feedback effect when lower raw material costs lead to lower PMI indices in most countries.

A decrease in oil prices inevitably leads to a decrease in inflation, and although at the current stage, this decrease is not a problem for the Fed or the ECB, the negative trend cannot be ignored.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1428. According to the M30 time – frame, I found that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and above Kijun- sen and Tenkan-sen, which is sign that buyers are in control. I also found on the point and figure chart that there is a breakout of the triple top formation, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1447 (pivot R1) and at the price of 1.1480 (Pivot R2).

Wave counting analysis:During the November 16 trading session, the GBP / USD currency pair gained about 50 basis points. Thus, the chances that in recent days, we have seen the construction of a complicated wave of an uptrend trend, have slightly increased. If this is indeed the case, then the increase in quotations will continue as part of the wave with targets around 1.3175. A successful attempt to break through the level of 100.0% will lead either to a complication of the downward trend section or to the construction of a side wave structure.The objectives for the option with purchases:1.3175 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with sales:1.2695 - 100.0% of Fibonacci1.2637 - 261.8% of Fibonacci (senior grid)General conclusions and trading recommendations:The GBP / USD currency pair remains in the process of building an upward set of waves, but the wave marking, if successfully attempted to break through the 100.0% of the Fibonacci level, will require making adjustments. So far, the chances of building a rising wave remain. Thus, in very small amounts, I recommend buying a pair with a target of 1.3175 but do not forget about the protective order.

Wave counting analysis:In the course of trading on Friday, the EUR / USD currency pair added about 85 basis points more and thus continues the construction of the proposed first wave of the uptrend of the trend. In the near future, the construction of a correctional wave 2 may begin. If this is indeed the case, then an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 76.4% of the Fibonacci level may lead to a departure of quotes from the reached maximums. There is also an option with the complication of the downward trend, starting from September 24.The objectives for the option with sales:1.1215 - 0.0% of FibonacciThe objectives for the option with purchases:1.1432 - 76.4% of Fibonacci1.1500 - 100.0% of FibonacciGeneral conclusions and trading recommendations:The currency pair continues to build an upward wave, presumably the first in the uptrend trend. However, the size of this wave is already almost 76.4%, so in the near future, it is possible to build a correctional wave, and I recommend going out of the purchases. There are no grounds for selling the pair yet, although the news background may again start creating pressure on the euro.

Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - sideways.The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.CCI: -51.5693The currency pair GBP / USD on Monday, November 19, corrected to the level of 1.2878 and can resume the downward trend. Positive news from the British Parliament did not receive any. Theresa May's speech in which she stated that there was no alternative to her proposed Brexit plan is hardly a positive event. Rather, even negative, since there are so many opponents not only of the UK's exit from the jurisdiction of Brussels but also of the conditions that May offers. Also, Labor Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn said that a second referendum could be held in the future. He believes that right now, it is impossible, but in the future. Thus, the second referendum was already started in parliament, and smoke, as we know, does not happen without fire. Therefore, despite all the endings of Theresa May about reaching an agreement with the EU by 95%, we believe that this whole story can get an unexpected outcome. For sterling, the more uncertainty, the worse. Traders see no reason to buy a pound until the Brexit procedure is completed. It is not yet clear whether Theresa May will remain at the helm. It is not yet clear whether there will be another referendum. It is not yet clear under what conditions the Kingdom will leave the EU and whether it will leave? From a technical point of view, the downward trend in the instrument is maintained.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1,2817S2 - 1.2756S3 - 1.2695Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1.2878R2 - 1.2939R3 - 1.3000Trading recommendations:The currency pair GBP / USD continues the upward correction. If the pair rebounds from the MA or overcomes the level of 1.2817, this will serve as a signal to open new sell orders with a target of 1.2756.The long positions are currently not relevant, they can be considered if the bulls have enough strength to overcome the moving average line. In this case, the first target for the upward movement will be 1.2939.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Technical details:The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.The younger linear regression channel: direction - down.Moving average (20; smoothed) - up.CCI: 132.5667The currency pair EUR / USD on Monday, November 19, continues its upward movement and has completed the Murray level of "3/8" - 1.1414. If the downtrend is preserved, a rebound of the pair from the indicated Murray level may trigger a resumption of the downward movement. At least, overcoming the level of 1.1414 may mean the formation of a new uptrend trend. However, as before, everything will depend on the main topic of recent months, Brexit. On the first trading day of the new work week, the planned macroeconomic reports will not be in the States or in the EU. Thus, any Brexit news is the only thing traders can expect on Monday. Meanwhile, the European Union proposed to extend the transition period by 2 years. This means that Brussels wants to receive contributions from the UK in total for 6.5 years after the referendum. At the same time, Theresa May said that there are no alternatives to her exit plan. The prime minister believes that if the British parliament does not accept its proposal, then the whole situation will fall back to the very beginning. May also believes that her plan will work and this is the best way out of this situation. From a technical point of view, it is still too early to declare that the downward trend in the euro is complete, despite the price position above the moving average line.Nearest support levels:S1 - 1.1353S2 - 1,1292S3 - 1.1230Nearest resistance levels:R1 - 1,1414R2 - 1.1475R3 - 1.1536Trading recommendations:The EUR / USD currency pair continues to move up. Thus, if traders overcome the level of 1.1414, then long positions can be opened with the target of 1.1475. Otherwise, we expect a downward correction or resumption of a downward trend.Sell positions will become relevant only after the price is fixed below the moving average. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will return to the bears, and the first target for a short trading will be the level of 1.1292.In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.Explanations for illustrations:The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.The junior linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.CCI - blue line in the indicator window.The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Pound traders are now quite obviously facing several scenarios, as the ring of political upheavals is increasingly narrowing around British Prime Minister Theresa May, and this has a negative effect on the British currency.After the events of last week, which clearly showed that the May Brexit plan does not have the necessary support, investors are now wondering what the next step of the Prime Minister will be if her deal is rejected in parliament. Options for resolving the issue include negotiating another deal with the European Union, holding a second Brexit Referendum, or even a general election, since Theresa May does not exclude the possibility of voting on her lack of confidence and dissatisfaction with her leadership.Any of these events would nullify all efforts to reach a "divorce" agreement between the UK and the EU by the end of the year, and against this background, the pound could fall to $ 1.20, according to Credit Agricole SA. BlueBay Asset Management and Aberdeen Standard Investments are among those who are also pessimistic about the pound rate."The chance that an existing transaction is taking place looks very low," said Mark Dudding, cash manager at BlueBay, who controls the equivalent of $ 60 billion. "In the short term, the likelihood of no transactions will increase."

On the 4-hour chart, the GBP / USD currency pair reversed in favor of the British currency and closed above the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2812 after the formation of the bullish divergence of the MACD indicator. As a result, on November 19, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 61.8% - 1.2904. The consolidation of quotations of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% can be interpreted as a reversal in favor of the American currency and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the correctional level of 100.0% - 1.2662 is expected.The Fibo grid was built according to extremums of August 15, 2018, and September 20, 2018.1h

On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 61.8% - 1.2878 with the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator and a fall to the correction level of 76.4% - 1.2809. The end of quotations from the level of 76.4% makes it possible to count on a reversal in favor of the pound sterling and some growth in the direction of the correctional level of 61.8%. Fixing the rate of the pair below the Fibo level of 76.4% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.2696.The Fibo grid is built on extremes from October 30, 2018, and November 7, 2018.Recommendations to traders:Purchases of the GBP / USD currency pair can be made with the target of 1.2878 and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 76.4%, since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.2809 (hourly chart).Selling of the currency pair GBP / USD will be possible with the target of 1.2696 and a Stop Loss order above the level of 76.4% if the pair closes below the level of 1.2809 (hourly chart).

As a result of the last week, the US dollar has noticeably decreased against the basket of major currencies. There are several reasons for this.

In our opinion, there are two main reasons for the depreciation of the US currency. The first is the growth of hopes that at the Big 20 summit, the American president will be able to offer the Chinese prime minister such a new sales proposition, which will be difficult for him to refuse. There is a strong view of the market that Washington and Beijing can agree that they will eliminate the main reason for the slowdown in global economic growth. Against this background, a good support for the currency of Australia and New Zealand has been received.The second reason for the weakening of the dollar is the persistence of tensions in domestic policy in the United States, following the mid-term parliamentary elections, which retained the status quo of an uncompromising attitude of the parties, and these are Democrats and Republicans, towards each other. The upper house of the local parliament was left for representatives of the Republican Party, and the Democrats received the majority at the bottom. The factor of uncertainty and tension had a noticeable pressure on the rate of the American currency.And one more reason, which, in our opinion, could be the basis for such dynamics, is the banal profit-taking after a noticeable strengthening of the dollar in the currency markets.Evaluating everything that happens, the question arises, will this trend continue in the near foreseeable future or not? In our opinion, if an agreement is reached between the Americans and the Chinese on trade duties and other conditions of mutual trade, this will be a strong stimulating factor for the strengthening of commodity and commodity exchange rates. Here, you can count on the upward dynamics of the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars. The single currency may also grow in the wake of the demand for risky assets, the quotes of "black gold" may also receive support against the background of decreasing fears of slowing global growth. The unsuccessful negotiations between the UK and the EU on Brexit can collapse the sterling rate to the minimum values of 2016.But, despite the positive potential, everything can change dramatically if the Big 20 summit in Buenos Aires is not reached by agreement between the United States and China, and the Fed decisively raises interest rates at the December meeting of the regulator.Forecast of the day:The currency pair EUR / USD is trading above the level of 1.1375. The pair may adjust down to this mark on a wave of profit taking, but if it stays above it, there is a chance that local growth will continue to 1.1450-55.The currency pair AUD / USD is trading above the level of 0.7300. It is supported by the hope of reaching a trade compromise between the United States and China. If the pair holds above this level, there is a possibility of continuing its increase to 0.7360.

Dear colleagues.For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, we are following the development of the upward cycle of November 12 and the potential for the top is at the level of 1.1544. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price has formed a small potential for the upward movement of November 15 in the correction of the downward trend. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are following the development of the downward cycle of November 13. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we expect a further downward movement after the breakdown of 112.62. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price entered a state of equilibrium. For the Pound / Yen currency pair, we expect the move to the level of 143.41, and we consider the move to the top as a correction.Forecast for November 19:Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1544, 1.1494, 1.1469, 1.1430, 1.1386, 1.1363 and 1.1328. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of November 12. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1430. In this case, the target is 1.1469 and in the range of 1.1469 - 1.1494, we expect a short-term upward movement, as well as price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.1544, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1386 - 1.1363 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1328 and this level is the key support for the top.The main trend is the upward structure of November 12.Trading recommendations:Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1466Buy 1.1470 Take profit: 1.1492Sell: 1.1384 Take profit: 1.1366Sell: 1.1360 Take profit: 1.1333

For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2966, 1.2928, 1.2878, 1.2843, 1.2729, 1.2691 and 1.2603. Here, the price has issued a small potential for the top of November 15 in the correction of the downward structure. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.2729 - 1.2691. In this case, the potential target is 1.2603, upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.2843 - 1.2878 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2928. The range of 1.2928 - 1.2966 is a key support for the downward movement. Before it, we expect the initial conditions for the upward cycle to be formed.The main trend is the downward structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the top of November 15.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.2845 Take profit: 1.2876Buy: 1.2880 Take profit: 1.2926Sell: 1.2690 Take profit: 1.2610Sell: Take profit:

For the Dollar / Franc currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0052, 1.0029, 1.0013, 0.9985, 0.9959, 0.9943 and 0.9909. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward structure of November 13. Further development of the downward structure is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.9985. In this case, the target is 0.9959 and in the range of 0.9959 - 0.9943 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 0.9909, the movement to which is expected after the breakdown of 0.9940.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.0013 - 1.0029 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.0052.The main trend is the downward cycle of November 13.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.0013 Take profit: 1.0127Buy: 1.0032 Take profit: 1.0050Sell: 0.9983 Take profit: 0.9960Sell: 0.9958 Take profit: 0.9945

For the Dollar / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the scale of H1 are: 113.29, 113.00, 112.82, 112.64, 112.43, 112.10 and 111.91. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of November 12. The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 112.64 - 112.43 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 112.10. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 111.91, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 112.82 - 113.00 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 113.29 and this level is the key support.The main trend is the medium-term descending structure of November 12.Trading recommendations:Buy: 112.82 Take profit: 113.00Buy: 113.05 Take profit: 113.27Sell: 112.62 Take profit: 112.47Sell: 112.40 Take profit: 112.13

For the Canadian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3363, 1.3314, 1.3279, 1.3218, 1.3194, 1.3151, 1.3115 and 1.3074. Here, the price forms the potential for a downward trend in the correction zone from the upward pattern on November 7. We expect a short-term upward movement in the range of 1.3194 - 1.3218 and the breakdown of the last value will resume the upward trend. In this case, the target is 1.3279 and in the range of 1.3279 - 1.3314, we expect a short-term upward movement. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.3363.The continuation of the development of the downward structure of November 14 is expected after the breakdown of 1.3151. In this case, the target is 1.3115 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3074, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The main trend is a local ascending structure of November 7, the formation of potential for the bottom of November 14.Trading recommendations:Buy: 1.3194 Take profit: 1.3216Buy: 1.3220 Take profit: 1.3275Sell: 1.31548 Take profit: 1.3120Sell: 1.3113 Take profit: 1.3080

For the Australian dollar / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.7426, 0.7391, 0.7344, 0.7292, 0.7265 and 0.7238. Here, we are following the ascending structure of November 13. The upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7344. In this case, the goal is 0.7391 and consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7426, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7292 - 0.7265 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7238 and this level is the key support for the top.The main trend is the ascending structure of November 13.Trading recommendations:Buy: 0.7346 Take profit: 0.7390Buy: 0.7393 Take profit: 0.7424Sell: 0.7290 Take profit: 0.7267Sell: 0.7263 Take profit: 0.7240

For the Euro / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 129.63, 129.17, 129.00, 128.23, 127.98, 127.22, 126.95 and 126.41. Here, the situation has entered an equilibrium state. The passage of the range of 129.00 - 129.17 will lead to the cancellation of the downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 129.63.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 128.23 - 127.98. The breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced movement to the level of 127.22 and in the range of 127.22 - 126.95 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 126.41.The main trend is the equilibrium state.Trading recommendations:Buy: 129.20 Take profit: 129.60Buy: Take profit:Sell: 128.23 Take profit: 128.00Sell: 127.93 Take profit: 127.30

For the Pound / Yen currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 147.33, 146.43, 145.79, 144.60, 143.41, 142.51 and 141.28. Here, we are following the November 8 downward cycle. The downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.60. In this case, the target is 143.41 and in the range of 143.41 - 142.51 is the short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 141.28, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 145.79 - 146.43 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 147.33 and this level is the key support for the downward movement.The main trend is the downward structure of November 8.Trading recommendations:Buy: 145.80 Take profit: 146.40Buy: 146.50 Take profit: 147.30Sell: 144.55 Take profit: 143.45Sell: 143.36 Take profit: 142.60

The USD/CAD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3134. The pair rose from the level of 1.3134 (the level of 1.3134 coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3160. Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3134 followed by 1.3105, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3183. According to the previous events, the USD/CAD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3134 and 1.3262; for that we expect a range of 128 pips (1.3262 - 1.3134). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3183, which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100), Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3183, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3262 to test the double top on the H1 chart. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3105.

The USD/CHF pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.

EUR/NZD tested the top of the 1.6468 - 1.6563 target-zone and it looks as a bottom could be in place for wave iii/ and a corrective rally in wave iv/ is about to develop. Ideally this corrective rally will move close to the 50% corrective target of wave iii/ near 1.7023, before tuning lower again in wave v/.

To confirm that wave iii/ has bottomed and wave iv is developing, we will need a break above minor resistance at 1.6706.

We continue to look for EUR/JPY to move lower towards 123.66 in wave C to complete the long-term triangle consolidation.

At this point only a clear break above resistance at 129.40 will be of concern, while a break above resistance at 130.13 will invalidate the expected decline towards 123.66 and instead call for a new rally towards strong resistance near 133.00.