Curran's Patriots-Bills Preview/Review

By Tom E. Curran

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WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

PREVIEW

Here’s an interesting stat: the Patriots are averaging 25 first downs per game. The next-closest teams are all in the 21 range. Which means that the Patriots will have the chance to run 12 more offensive plays per game than the next-best teams. I’m taking liberties with the stat and making assumptions, but the point is, all those first downs means the playbook is wide-open quite often for New England and that it doesn’t matter what down-and-distance they have, they are a threat. The Patriots are 14-for-31 on third-and-10 or more. That’s stupid. And the Patriots haven’t had fewer than 25 first downs in their past five games. If Buffalo can’t get off the field on third down, it’s over. Done. Buffalo’s coming off a terrific week at Kansas City where they allowed just 2 for 13 third-down conversions. But a big issue for Buffalo has been its lack of pressure on quarterbacks in general and ability to disrupt passing games. They’ve got seven sacks in their past eight games and quarterbacks are 80 for 118 against them in the past four games (68 percent). That’s going to be an issue against the Patriots

REVIEW

The Patriots first drive was a time-consuming thing of beauty that included a 27-yard completion to Danny Amendola on second-and-15. The Patriots settled for a field goal after a third-and-10 incompletion on which a couple of guys broke open. The Patriots went run-heavy the next two drives and were rewarded with a 44-yard Dion Lewis run into field goal territory. The Patriots had to settle for the field goal after Brady was sacked on third-and-goal from the 5 after Joe Thuney was beaten by Kyle Williams. On the Patriots last drive before the half, Rex Burkhead’s long run got them in range before another Thuney-yielded sack led to a field goal. After the break, the Patriots hammered it to Gronk three times for 50 yards setting up a Rex Burkhead touchdown to make it 16-3 and leave the game teetering. The Patriots again punched it in on their next drive to make it 23-3. That’s the way it ended. Gronk owned the second half and finished with 147 yards on nine catches. The Patriots threw it just 30 times – a nice respite for Brady after last week’s whacking. They also ran 35 times for 191. The red zone efficiency was off – 2 for 5.

WHEN THE BILLS HAVE THE BALL

PREVIEW

Over a two-week span against the Panthers and Texans earlier this season, the Patriots allowed 12 of 23 third-down conversions. A couple weeks later against the Jets, they allowed 9 of 17. All three of these teams had quarterbacks who could move a bit, forcing the Patriots to play zone. Since then, New England has faced few truly mobile quarterbacks but on Sunday, they’ll deal with Tyrod Taylor. In five games against New England, he’s carried 22 times for 159 yards. Some of those came when the game was trash, but the point is that Taylor can get out and challenge a defense especially on third down. In three games against the Patriots, LeSean McCoy’s carried 54 times for 241 yards and caught 15 passes for 108. And that’s really where your problems are because this team cannot throw the football to save its collective soul. McCoy is the only Bill with more than 30 catches. Charles Clay, Jordan Matthews and Zay Jones are the other guys. Not keeping Matt Patricia awake at night. But this will, nonetheless, be a good test for the Patriots in terms of defensive discipline. The Bills have talked all week about controlling the ball and keeping the game close until late. We’ll see.

REVIEW

The Bills opened with a terrific ball-control drive which is exactly what they wanted to do. They ran 12 plays and erased almost half the quarter then threw it to Eric Lee, Patriots linebacker. Just a crippling mistake. On the opening play of their next drive, Eric Lee struck again with a 4-yard sack, tripping up a scrambling Taylor (not easy to do). But Taylor got loose for an 18-yard scramble on third-and-10. The Bills stalled though at midfield and Taylor descended into a two-drive passing funk. The Bills wrinkled things up midway through the second quarter with Joe Webb running Wildcat for 21 yards and LeSean McCoy beating a run blitz for another big pickup before the Bills settled for a field goal. In the third quarter, Taylor took a 19-yard sack on the team’s only drive and by the fourth quarter, he was being carted away with a knee injury. Nathan Peterman promptly led the Bills to the precipice of a touchdown where he threw incomplete on fourth-and-goal. Statistically, the Bills did what they do in the passing game with 15 completions on 34 attempts for 115 yards and four sacks. They did run for 183 on 26 carries.

THE KICKING GAME

PREVIEW

With Nate Ebner done for the season, there will be a little under-the-radar domino effect visiting upon the Patriots special teams. He’s the punt protector so a new player (Jordan Richards or Pat Chung) will be in that spot going forward. The Bills may try to get after Ryan Allen with Ebner out. The Bills and Patriots are two of the league’s best at covering punts (fourth- and fifth-lowest return averages). Bills punter Colton Schmidt is having an effective year; Ryan Allen has been below average for New England. Steve Hauschka is 21 for 24 on field goals and has made seven of eight outside 50. Stephen Gostkowski hasn’t missed a PAT since Week 2 and has made his last six field goals.

REVIEW

Stephen Gostkowski stayed hot with a 50-yard field goal to cap the Patriots first drive. He also hit from 31 and 39. His PATs flirted with the posts but he made them. The return games were uneventful.

GAME WITHIN THE GAME

PREVIEW

Getting the drop on the Bills. The Patriots went through a five-game stretch where they managed just six total first-quarter points. In the past three games, they’ve put up 28. Getting Bills Mafia to adhere to a Code of Silence because the fellas fall behind by an extreme amount will help this game be drama-free.

REVIEW

The Bills more than hung with the Patriots early, they should have been leading had they cashed in points on their first drive. But the Patriots got 10 unanswered going into and coming out of halftime and the party was over. It didn’t have to be that way. Buffalo blundered into making this non-competitive.

BILLS GOTTA STOP

PREVIEW

Rob Gronkowski. In six career games at Buffalo, Gronk’s gone 4-54-2, 7-109-2, 5-104-1, 7-94-0, 7-113-1 and 5-109-1. So seven touchdowns in six games on 35 catches with 583 yards. The Bills have been fine but not great against tight ends – 55 catches so far but only two touchdowns allowed. Figure they’ll make him a priority stop.

REVIEW

Gronk had two catches for 28 yards in the first half, both moving the chains. In the second half, he took over. He finished with 147 yards on nine catches. One of his more dominating performances of his career.

PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP

PREVIEW

Tyrod Taylor. Regardless of how it turned out a few weeks back, there were obviously enough issues with his game to land him on the bench for a brief stint. You can’t see them in the box scores, though, and the dual threat Taylor poses to a defense that hasn’t seen that style in two months means the edge rushers and linebackers are on alert all day and especially on third down.

REVIEW

Taylor ran three times for 32 yards and had his offense moving but that one crippling slip-up early sealed his and his team’s fate. It’s taking at least three points off the board, maybe seven. A good team can’t do that with the Pats. Bad teams definitely can’t.

THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE

PREVIEW

“[Bill Belichick] said whether you're 5-5 at this point or 10-0, it really depends on what we do going forward because I was here in 2001 when we were 5-5 and we ended up not losing a game after that. A few years ago we were 10-0 and the season didn't end very well. I think so much of your season is dependent on how we're going to do at this point moving forward. We put ourselves in decent position but we're going to have to go capitalize.” – Tom Brady on the importance of December football.

REVIEW

To start the month with a 20-point road win in the division and continue the two-month stretch of defense in which opponents can’t muster more than 17 points shows that this team is more than ready for the stretch run. And all this was with their third-string right tackle and two of the league’s best special teams guys not playing.

THAT SUMS IT UP BILLS STYLE

PREVIEW

“I think it’s a different week. I think we have the same mindset of coming in, preparing hard the same way, practicing hard, and making the same game every week. I think it’s something a little special. You ask the local neighbor about the Patriots, they’ll say that it’s a must-win type of game. That feeling that they want to beat them. It’s always, I think, something special with the Patriots no matter where you’re at I think.” – LeSean McCoy, Bills running back, on the importance of playing New England.

REVIEW

The Bills had a decent plan. They just made too many tiny mistakes (and one big one) to keep the game close through the third quarter.

THE CREW, THE BOOTH AND THE LINE

PREVIEW

Gene Steratore, who did Patriots-Falcons a few weeks back, is the crew chief this week. The home team has won eight of the 10 games Steratore’s crew has done this season, which is higher than the league average. They are averaging 14 assessed penalties per game. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo are in the booth for CBS. The Patriots are a nine-point favorite and the total is 49. The teams are 4-4-1 against the spread in their past nine meetings.

REVIEW

The Patriots were penalized nine times for 66 yards. Obviously, Gronk wasn’t down with the way the game was officiated. The Patriots had an easy cover and I keep giving out bad picks.