Democracy is a rare and fragile plant in the Arab world. Yet by
tomorrow night, two such exercises will have taken place within the
space of three weeks. The first was on January 9, when the
Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza Strip elected Mahmoud Abbas as
their president. The second, to choose a national assembly in Iraq
which will draft a constitution, began yesterday among expatriates in
14 countries, including Britain, and will conclude on Sunday.

By championing democracy as a factor for peace, George W Bush has
maintained pressure on those who otherwise might soon have reverted
to authoritarian ways. In the Palestinians´ case, his policy shows
signs of bearing fruit. Mr Abbas has deployed security forces in Gaza
to prevent rocket attacks on Israel. His prime minister, Ahmed Qurei,
has issued a ban on weapons in the Strip and the West Bank town of
Jericho. The Israeli army has responded by suspending "offensive
operations" in Gaza. Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, has expressed
himself very satisfied with Mr Abbas´s steps to end the four-year
intifada. His foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, has said that Israel´s
response to Palestinian attacks will be "totally different" to what
they were under Yasser Arafat, if it is felt that his successor is
making a real effort for peace. Add to these indications of detente
the imminence of a visit by Condoleezza Rice, the new American
Secretary of State, and at last there seems a serious chance of
embarking on the "road map" to a permanent settlement, drawn up by
America, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations in 2003.

With Iraq, the outlook is much murkier. In four of the 18 provinces,
where 40 per cent of the population live, the Americans have
identified violence as a major threat to voter turnout. They are
Baghdad; Anbar, which includes Ramadi and Fallujah; Salahadin, which
includes Samarra and Baquba; and Nineveh, whose capital, Mosul, is
the second largest Iraqi town. Terrorists have vowed "to wash the
streets of Baghdad with the voters´ blood" and have described polling
stations as "centres of atheism and vice". Against this must be set
the eagerness of the Shia, who make up 60 per cent of the population,
to end decades of Sunni domination and, to a lesser extent, of the
Kurds to entrench the autonomy they have enjoyed since 1991. And even
if the participation of the Sunnis is low, this will not prevent
their taking part in the drafting of the constitution, or indeed
filling ministerial portfolios. "Ultimately, this whole thing comes
down not to electoral politics, but to backroom politics" was how one
American commentator put it.