News, thoughts, and insights for financial marketers

“The vote by the majority of Britons to leave the EU is to be respected as a democratic decision, but it does pose a severe test for the United Kingdom and the whole of the European Union with considerable economic risks. Politicians and investors now need to display prudence and foresight. Knee-jerk reactions should be avoided at all costs. The EU should persevere with its projects such as the completion of the Single Market.”

– Michael Heise, Allianz Chief Economist

“Financial services represent a matter of profound importance to the UK economy, and we think the consequences of exiting the EU would be serious. There is no precedent for accessing the EU market in services without paying a contribution to the Union and without complying with its regulations.”

– Marino Valensise, Chairman of the Strategic Policy Group

“The decision made by the British public to favour a vote to leave the European Union (EU) will shape the future direction of financial services around the world. It is important to note that the result of the UK’s EU Referendum is just the beginning of a process. A British exit will not take place for some time and will involve a lengthy period of negotiation… As a global financial institution with a strong presence in the UK and other European Union markets, BNY Mellon is ready to play a constructive role during this transition period to minimise any potential challenge, turbulence and disruption to Europe’s capital markets and our clients.”

– Michael Cole-Fontayn, EMEA Chairman

“Yesterday the British people decided to exit the European Union in a landmark political decision. We believe that this will continue to impact global markets in the short term, but don’t believe it will have a major effect in the long term.”

– Mohammad Syed, Head of Financial Advice and Investment Solutions

“Financial services could be the sector most at risk, as leaving the EU could potentially result in the loss of ‘passporting’ privileges, which currently allow financial products to be sold into the EU from London. If this were to be the case, there could be a risk that some financial services firms may move at least some of their operations from London to mainland Europe, most likely Frankfurt, Brussels or perhaps Dublin.”

“The decision of the UK electorate to leave the European Union (EU) means that the UK enters uncharted waters in terms of the process by which it withdraws from the EU. Although there is a clearly defined mechanism for formally notifying the EU of a member’s intention to leave as set out in Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union, the actual process and timing by which the UK Government invokes this mechanism is currently subject to great uncertainty. This has been compounded by the announcement by the UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, to step down in autumn 2016 in favour of a new leader who will lead the negotiations with the EU. ”

“On Thursday 23rd June the country voted to leave the EU. The detail of what that means for the UK will only be known over the coming weeks and months. For James Hay, it is business as usual and we will continue to administer your plan as we currently do.

We are, however, closely monitoring the market and trading activity and will update you on any changes that might impact you. Any uncertainty in the financial markets may affect the value and volatility of your underlying investments so we recommend that you consult with your financial adviser to review your investment portfolio. If you do not have a financial adviser you can find one in your area at unbiased.co.uk.”

“From an economic standpoint, there seems little doubt that Brexit would have some degree of negative impact on UK growth. However, the severity and duration of this impact remains highly uncertain, and much depends on the outcome of negotiations which would take place over the two years following the referendum. The Leave campaign would argue this is a price worth paying. … In the coming months we can expect political uncertainty to be reflected in financial markets, and for volatility to present us with opportunities to take advantage of market overreactions to short-term news flow. Our focus as bottom-up investors will remain firmly on identifying opportunities to own financially productive companies at attractive valuations.”

“Brexit would create significant problems for international companies based there. While investments in Britain are mainly linked to a combination of the flexibility of the UK economy and direct access to the single market, Brexit would change the rules by closing, at least for a time, this access to the single market. It may therefore result in a freeze on direct investment in Britain while the progress of negotiations with the European Union is assessed.”

“Even though the future is unknown, we believe that during volatile times it is important to keep calm and stick to your plans. Remember to take a long-term view of your savings and investments. A long-term approach to investing has been shown to produce the best outcomes for investors.

Staying invested in well diversified portfolios and saving on a regular basis is a far more effective strategy than changing your plans when financial markets are under stress.

Your investments are managed by skilled and experienced managers who will continue to make decisions based on the long term fundamentals and it is important not to let emotion lead to a decision that may harm your long term strategy.”

“In the event of a ‘leave’ vote, sterling would retrace recent gains, and could decline by another 10% or more if the pound’s behaviour after leaving the Exchange Rate Mechanism (Black Wednesday) in 1992 is an (albeit imperfect) guide. It is probable that the government would need to implement an emergency budget, and the likely next move in rates would be downwards.

Note that the euro too could be a major casualty, as worries over the credibility of Europe ‘ex UK’ and the likelihood of referendums in other member states grows. With sterling and the euro weak, this would imply a renewed and unwelcome surge in the dollar, potentially weakening commodity prices and derailing a nascent recovery in the emerging world.”

– Guy Monson, Cief Investment officer and managing partner

“Perhaps one valid conjecture is that it (Brexit) will foment similar calls in other EU members where populist, anti-integration rhetoric is taking hold – and markets will surely react. We will therefore be watchful for the reaction of both politicians and monetary policymakers, and any potential impact it may have on global growth and markets. One certainty in this environment is that portfolio diversification will help mitigate political risk.”

– Mike Ryan, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist

“The impact on the UK economy of a decision to leave the EU is highly uncertain and would depend on decisions taken after a vote to leave. Financial markets will be pulled in different directions and markets are likely to be volatile post an exit decision. The impact on UK pension funds would be significant and would have negative consequences for both growth assets and on liability values. While our base case is that UK will not leave the EU, during the referendum period, uncertainty surrounding Brexit could create investment opportunities for agile pension schemes.”

– David Page, Senior Economist

“We expect the UK’s exit process to be a messy one, including the unpacking of UK and EU laws, striking trade compromises with a spurned EU and around the globe. We expect potential losses in services exports and investment flows to overwhelm any benefits of lower payments to EU… We think the vote will lead to declines in global shares and other risk assets. Yet indiscriminate selling could spark opportunities.”

“There is no doubt central banks will continue to do ‘whatever it takes’ to provide support to the global economy. What this means for the UK is likely interest rates cuts and/or QE from the Bank of England to provide assistance to the economy and support markets as the UK contends with this unexpected shock.
While we believe the Brexit outcome may create a bandwagon of pressure to reform the EU, we think it is unlikely to lead to the full-scale collapse of the European Union. It is clearly a ‘shock’, but not a ‘crisis’.

…Therefore, while the referendum vote has created uncertainty, we believe it important to stay measured and ‘not let our hearts rule our heads.”

– Nigel Kennett, Senior Fund Manager

“I see the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union, known as Brexit, as one theatre in a larger referendum on globalization, or rather anti-globalization. The U.S. presidential election is another example. I see it as a backlash against the persistent sluggish economic growth of the post-financial crisis era. When growth is strong, imbalances (such as excessive debt and wealth inequality) can be more easily papered over (the rising tide lifts all boats), but when growth disappears the problems bubble up to the surface.”

– Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro

“The decision to leave the EU goes against that grain because it constitutes a major institutional change for the UK and its trading partners, both within and outside the EU. Empirical evidence suggests that as political uncertainty increases, firms delay investment and consumers put off spending on big-ticket items, weighing on economic growth and asset returns. The severity and duration of this drag will depend on the response of global policymakers.”

“In our view, the decision to leave will likely increase existing market volatility in the immediate aftermath, which was driven by investor uncertainty over the potential consequences of the outcome, and may see investors moving further into defensive assets. This type of market volatility often leads to price adjustments that are indiscriminate, and can therefore present attractive buying opportunities for fundamental, long-term investors.”

– Nick Mustoe, Chief Investment Officer

“We would expect these macroeconomic effects (of Brexit) to fade gradually, as the post-EU landscape became clearer. At that point, microeconomic factors would take over, with investors needing to consider carefully how individual sectors and companies were positioned for the new environment. The financial services sector probably has most to lose and-potentially-UK homebuilders. Manufacturing firms and domestically oriented services companies might see some long-term benefits or be little affected.”

– Stephanie Flanders, Global Markets Insights Strategy Team

“Safe-haven trades are driving rates lower outside the UK: the US 10-year yield fell to 1.546%, some 20 bps below yesterday’s level; the US 2-year at 0.0.6368%. Unsurprisingly, non-US equities were hit hard: The Euro Stoxx 50 was down 8.50%; the FTSE 100 fell 3.68%%, Germany’s DAX fell 6.62%. Commodities also reflected the tension, with gold up 5.42%, and both Brent and WTI crude falling over 5%. Time will tell if these levels hold; under Article 50, the EU has two years to sort out the details of the departure, and the UK’s David Cameron has said he’ll leave to his replacement the honor of firing the starting pistol.”

“In these very early stages following the “Leave” win any prognosis is by its nature highly tentative. It will be weeks before we are able to measure the impact of the result on the UK economy, and there are clearly no close historical parallels on which to base reliable predictions. Moreover, it will be months – in some cases years – before we have answers to the major domestic political questions prompted today: who will lead the country following David Cameron’s resignation, will the transition of power require a general election, what will Britain’s economic relationship with the European Union (EU) look like once the exit is complete, what will it look like in the interim, might the thumping “Remain” win in Scotland trigger a Scottish exit from the UK? … Financial markets dislike such unanswerable questions. So although the tumultuous market conditions that prevailed early on Friday morning have dampened down very considerably, we should expect news related to the questions above to create further volatility over the coming days, weeks and months.”

– James Dowey, Chief economist and CIO

“The result of the vote carries with it a range of unknowns about the short, medium and long-term prospects for the UK and its economy. Added to this, we now have a period of political uncertainty… As someone born outside the UK, I see one of this country’s biggest strengths as its openness to the rest of the world, and the people of it. As a major employer and backer of the economy, we have a duty to ensure that we reflect that.”

– Ross McEwan, CEO

“Following the EU referendum result, we have seen immediate movements in the equity, foreign exchange and fixed income markets. A time of heightened volatility is likely to persist as markets digest the implications of both this decision, and the political uncertainty following the Prime Minister’s and other resignations. We are entering into a difficult period not only in the UK, but also in Europe itself. The full implications of this decision and the ramifications across Europe will take some time to emerge, but with change and uncertainty come opportunity as well.”

“… there’s been a lot of debates about what the economic consequences of this. I think most economists think that the overall long-run effects are going to be negative for the UK economy, mainly because the implications for trade and for fund direct investment are likely to be negative.

But I think almost everybody agrees that the most important short run effects are going to be because of the uncertainty. There’s just a lot of questions about how the UK are going to interact with the EU going forward and with the rest of the world. And markets hate uncertainty, and that’s one of the main reasons why we’ve seen so much weakness over the last 12-24 hours or so.”