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By The NumbersHockey Analytics... the Final Frontier. Explore strange new worlds, to seek out new algorithms, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

ES assists are official from 1987-88. Before that time they are estimates, but I have replaced the estimates for most prominent players with unofficial boxscore data from the HSP. The estimates may add a little error to the results pre-88 but should not make much difference to the top end.

I'm planning to make a full post at some point with distribution stats of this type for all years and both F and D.

Does the more defensive role of Dmen overall since the mid 90s influence the data at all?

The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.

So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.

Given that this is ES production (so an increase in PPO should be irrelevant), don't you believe the disproportionate number of high scoring forwards (as reflected in the stats leaderboards) compared to lower scoring forwards which arrived from overseas would skew the comparative scoring between top line players and low line players? The amount due to such an increase in the comparative quality of top line forwards vs. low line forwards would not seem to require further adjustment for difficulty.

Given that this is ES production (so an increase in PPO should be irrelevant), don't you believe the disproportionate number of high scoring forwards (as reflected in the stats leaderboards) compared to lower scoring forwards which arrived from overseas would skew the comparative scoring between top line players and low line players? The amount due to such an increase in the comparative quality of top line forwards vs. low line forwards would not seem to require further adjustment for difficulty.

Moreover, the fact that many teams switched from the "two scoring, two checking" model prevalent to that point to "three scoring, one checking" as the talent was available for it and the Red Wings had shown it to be a successful model.

- Surprised Bossy isn't in the top 100 (especially since Trottier is on the list three times) - maybe he relied more on the PP than I thought.

- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?

- Total adjusted ES points from Gretzky in his best ten seasons: 1,379. Total adjusted ES points from everyone else in their ten best seasons: 1,236!

- Surprised Bossy isn't in the top 100 (especially since Trottier is on the list three times) - maybe he relied more on the PP than I thought.

- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?

- Total adjusted ES points from Gretzky in his best ten seasons: 1,379. Total adjusted ES points from everyone else in their ten best seasons: 1,236!

Because Bossy's career ended much earlier than Trottier's, I didn't have his full ES point data (only ESG). Assuming the same % of total for ES assists as ES goals, his '82 & '84 seasons would adjust to ~110 adj. points, with 4 other seasons in the mid-high 80s in adj. points.

The same issue with the 80s vs. later years. I know there is a more comprehensive ES point database, but it wasn't readily available at the time I calculated these numbers.

This is a list of most of the best adjusted ES seasons for which data is available. Adjusted to 82 games and 6.00 ESG/game, but uncertain if the ESG/game figures are 100% accurate:

I find this interesting when you pull out some numbers by year:

PLAYER

Year

G

A

P

Lemieux

1989

50

74

124

Yzerman

1989

55

68

123

Gretzky

1989

46

75

122

Robitaille

1989

44

46

90

PLAYER

Year

G

A

P

Lemieux

1993

56

59

115

Yzerman

1993

46

59

104

Selanne

1993

62

37

100

Oates

1993

24

70

94

Turgeon

1993

41

52

92

Robitaille

1993

44

47

91

Recchi

1993

41

50

91

PLAYER

Year

G

A

P

Gretzky

1990

31

83

114

Yzerman

1990

46

47

94

Yzerman second in 89, 90, and 93.

How far back do the numbers you used for this table go? I see Trottier, but I don't see Lafleur. But Lafleur is on your earlier lists. I also wonder what the numbers are for seasons such as Yzerman's 87-88. He had a total 50-52-102 in only 64 games; HR's complex method puts him at 42-43-85, compared to 54-74-128 for 88-89. Assuming a similar ES/PP/SH distribution between the two seasons, this would suggest Yzerman's numbers *should* come up around 82 points for 64 games using your method, which suggests 102.5 for a full 80 - again second place. But without the actual numbers in hand, I can't make the calculation.

How far back do the numbers you used for this table go? I see Trottier, but I don't see Lafleur. But Lafleur is on your earlier lists. I also wonder what the numbers are for seasons such as Yzerman's 87-88. He had a total 50-52-102 in only 64 games; HR's complex method puts him at 42-43-85, compared to 54-74-128 for 88-89. Assuming a similar ES/PP/SH distribution between the two seasons, this would suggest Yzerman's numbers *should* come up around 82 points for 64 games using your method, which suggests 102.5 for a full 80 - again second place. But without the actual numbers in hand, I can't make the calculation.

Basically, players who played into the 90s have data on ESPN's site, and those that didn't don't. On that site, it's all or nothing: either there's full data for the player's career or none at all. I estimated data for Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, etc. based on their ESG/total goal ratios (assuming same ratio held for assists). I thought those estimates would be more accurate over multiple seaons (although calculated separately for each season) than for single seasons, so I included them with asterisks.

Yzerman was much stronger at ES in '89 than in '88 (101/155 points at ES in '89 vs. 61/102 in '88).

More historical ES point data is available, but AFAIK it's not on a site readily accessible to the public. I think it's in a Yahoo user group and I'm not aware of any other sources.

This is a list of most of the best adjusted ES seasons for which data is available. Adjusted to 82 games and 6.00 ESG/game, but uncertain if the ESG/game figures are 100% accurate:

PLAYER

Year

G

A

P

Lemieux

1989

50

74

124

H.Sedin

2010

34

89

124

Kind of sick actually. Lemieux's best ES year is the exact same as H. Sedin's. This is very weird considering that the Sedins are considered PP players (at least in my perception).

Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?

Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?

You could make an argument that Jagr was better at even strength than Mario (although maybe not better than a healthy Mario.) But Mario was much better on the power play and at killing penalties.

Kind of sick actually. Lemieux's best ES year is the exact same as H. Sedin's. This is very weird considering that the Sedins are considered PP players (at least in my perception).

Well, that's one reason not to evaluate players based on a single season. Even for peak, I tend to look at ~3-5 seasons. Also, I don't think the Sedins are really PP players. They're actually more ES players, at least compared to other "superstar" forwards. The misconception may be due to their initially improving after the lockout, when PPs were up substantially the first couple years. They really became stars when their ES numbers jumped starting in '09.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJOpus

Could you make an argument based on this that Jagr was actually a better hockey player than Mario or that in 15 years the greatest players of all time (right now IMO Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux) will not include Lemieux (just as Howe has fallen off a bit - again, my perception)?

Yes, you can, but it's an uphill battle on HFB, esp. since Lemieux is rated based on peak/prime & per-game metrics, as well as the "what if" scenario. Where Lemieux is most vulnerable is his health, and the resultant lack of durability and longevity. For those who evaluate on mostly a career value metric, I think it's very possible that Jagr has the edge. At the least, I think it's much closer than people will acknowledge, but don't expect the majority of people to admit that.

Basically, players who played into the 90s have data on ESPN's site, and those that didn't don't. On that site, it's all or nothing: either there's full data for the player's career or none at all. I estimated data for Dionne, Lafleur, Bossy, etc. based on their ESG/total goal ratios (assuming same ratio held for assists). I thought those estimates would be more accurate over multiple seaons (although calculated separately for each season) than for single seasons, so I included them with asterisks.

Yzerman was much stronger at ES in '89 than in '88 (101/155 points at ES in '89 vs. 61/102 in '88).

In terms of percentage of points, that 101/155 would be about 66 of 102. That's not a huge difference as a ratio.

Seeing the numbers on ESPN's page, it's more surprising; in 77GP, Lemieux only had 74 ESP to 80 PPP+14 SHP. Yzerman had 61 ESP in 64 GP. So Yzerman is just shy of Lemieux's ESPPG number, but comes out ahead if he plays the full 80.

Also notable is Yzerman's 1993-94 season. His actual total PPG, projected to a full 80, works out to 119 points (third behind Gretzky's 130 and Fedorov's 120). His 84-game adjusted ES number, based on your adjustment calculation, would put him at ~101 (I reached this number by comparing with Fedorov's numbers; there is a slight margin for error).

I think this data solidly supports my longstanding argument that Peak Yzerman was the best player in the league in at least 1989; and a top-three forward for the stretch from 88-94. He was scoring on par with Gretzky and Lemieux in ES situations (he didn't have the significant support cast on the PP that they had) and was easily the best defensive player of the three.

Just want to make it clear that the list of single seasons is not comprehensive. First, as previously mentioned, it depends on whether the data was available for the player. Second, I didn't include every player, but only player who had multiple strong ES seasons. For example, Corey Perry tied Daniel Sedin in 2011 in ES points, but he's not yet on the list.

well obviously stats dont mean that much all the time if crosbys season is below henrik sedins lmfao

Don't get your panties in a knot, Sedin had one of the most impressive ES seasons in the past decade, with 83ESP, Crosby's never done that in his career, obviously he's going to rank higher then Crosby in an ESP list.

Yes. If the NHL called penalties more equitably like they did after the lockout, he would have basically been unstoppable or his team would have been on a perpetual power play.

I agree, Jagr is up there with lemieux, gretzky imo as far as offense is concerned. Maybe the bottom of that tier, but the guy is certainly under-appreciated on all-time lists. Certain players have an Aura or a mystique surrounding them that tends to catapult them ahead of Jags for some reason. He is higher on my list than Lafleur and many others.

Jagr was the most dominating offensive force since Lemieux by a fair margin.

I argee. Love him or hate him, but Jagr was a ****ing beast and he managed to do that for such a long time. Jagr is a top 5 player all time for me. If not for the lockouts and his Russia stint, we might be talking about the 2nd leading all-time scorer of the NHL and with 800-850 goals. Which would mean he'd be on Gretzkys' heals as far as goals are concerned. Jagr has 665 goals right now, he missed a 1 1/2 seasons durinig his prime (and now is missing more games) plus missed 3 full seasons with 25-30 goal potential. So he misses +/- 150 goals, which would bring him to 815.

- Also surprising that there are only 18 seasons from the 1980s (10 of which are Gretzky), compared to 48 from the 1990s, 24 from the 2000s and 8 from the 2010s (in three seasons). There are also two seasons from seventies, both Trottier's, but I assume your data only goes back to 1978 or so. It seems weighted really heavily on the 1990s and (on a per-season basis) the 2010s?

The reason for the difference between 90's and the rest of the decades must have something to do with procentage of ES minutes per game. Did the 90's have a lower amount of penalty minutes? If we count the even strength goals scored over a decade and divide it with power play goals, would the 90's have the lowest "power play factor"?

Also what would a ESG/ESTOI ranking look like?

EDIT: Also, who would have thought Selanne would be this high on the list in ESG average in three best seasons. I thought he was just a normal first line goal scorer.

The reason for the difference between 90's and the rest of the decades must have something to do with procentage of ES minutes per game. Did the 90's have a lower amount of penalty minutes? If we count the even strength goals scored over a decade and divide it with power play goals, would the 90's have the lowest "power play factor"?

Also what would a ESG/ESTOI ranking look like?

EDIT: Also, who would have thought Selanne would be this high on the list in ESG average in three best seasons. I thought he was just a normal first line goal scorer.

From '80 to present, the highest and lowest PP opportunities per game:

Not sure why you think of Selanne as just a normal first line goal scorer in his peak/prime years. After all, he did lead the league in goals 3 times and has 5 top 3 finishes.

That was a brainfart on my part. Brutal choice of words. I ment "normal" Rocket Richard winner. I know he has been great but to look that good in that kind of company was a bit of a surprise for me even when that particular list only took best three seasons into consideration.

That was a brainfart on my part. Brutal choice of words. I ment "normal" Rocket Richard winner. I know he has been great but to look that good in that kind of company was a bit of a surprise for me even when that particular list only took best three seasons into consideration.

I think the problems with injuries are making Selanne look more inconsistent than he actually was.

If you would leave out the injury years in the middle of Selanne's career (which is not unreasonable since he obviously had serious problems with his leg) he would end up with PPG roughly 1.2 and GPG roughly 0.56 over 1100 games. It would put him in the same territory as Sakic/Lafleur point wise and around top-10 GPG. This is cherry picking in a way that I don't like and this should not give any definite answers since every player has problems in their career. But outside of career threatening injuries Selanne has been consistently one of the top producers. The overall value of player like Selanne is another debate tough. But scoring wise Selanne has been pretty much one of the most elite players.