Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151133
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located more than 100 miles north of the
northwestern Bahamas.
An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. Shower activity remains disorganized and only
slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day or two.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for gradual development through the middle of the week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Stewart

Eastern Pacific

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151145
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.
A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a small area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
slowly west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake

Hurricane for

Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD...
As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15
the center of Kiko was located near 16.9, -120.7
with movement W at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 954 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150855
TCDEP3
Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019
Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized
by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70
degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have
increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial
intensity of 110 kt.
The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several
hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today,
and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this
afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes
challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken
Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase
in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no
other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for
Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also
interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the
forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places
Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over
warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the
previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but
at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest
forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours,
increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the
northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time.
Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a
west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As
mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they
differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching
California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a
break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions
keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight
southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the
actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more
weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread
beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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