Transcript of "Tv Effectiveness Webcast Rubinson"

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Webcast Prepared for Members of The Advertising Research Foundation Prepared by: Joel Rubinson, Chief Research Officer, The ARF January 14, 2009 [email_address] Follow me on twitter @joelrubinson Empirical Generalizations Regarding the Effectiveness of TV Advertising Over Time

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Can TV still work? A prima facie case against… <ul><ul><li>DVR household penetration in 2008 has reached 25 - 30% (Eggerton, 2008; Goetzel, 2008; Steinberg, 2008) and 50% of DVR owners typically fast forward (Morrissey, 2008). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in TV commercial clutter. Over the last 50 years, “non-program content” in a 60 minute prime time show has increased from 11 to 18 minutes (Papazian, 2007). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shift in media consumption patterns that have led 50%+ of TV viewers to multi-task, presumably paying less attention to TV as they are simultaneously on the web, using their phones, reading, etc. (MRI, 2008; Papper, Holmes, Popovich, & Bloxham, 2005). </li></ul></ul>

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Can TV still work? It’s even getting a little ugly… <ul><ul><li>A sense that there is something wrong about push marketing that attempts to “interrupt” viewers and intrude </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ What would you rather have, 5 million impressions or 10 quality relationships?” ANA conference speaker </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ What is the future of a business where the consumer hates your product — in this case, advertising?” Greg Stuart, former head of the IAB, in AdWeek </li></ul></ul>

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Can TV still work? Some empirical results in favor… <ul><ul><li>Evidence was published in 2007 by professors Hu, Lodish, and Krieger from IRI Behaviorscan testing using experimental design that the average level of effectiveness of TV advertising, using test vs. control methods, has actually INCREASED. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evidence that people are in heightened states of awareness while fast forwarding and still absorb messages (especially those they have seen before). </li></ul></ul>

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Anecdote: NYU marketing class <ul><li>I asked students to write down their favorite brand and then to comment on how they became “introduced” to that brand </li></ul><ul><li>I called on 5 students and no one said that TV was the way they became aware of the brand or even had much influence on them </li></ul><ul><li>One student said her favorite brand was Apple…here is the conversation that ensued… </li></ul><ul><li>Can people fully retrieve such information? </li></ul>

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The key questions <ul><li>Has the effectiveness of TV impressions changed over time and if so, has it increased or decreased? </li></ul><ul><li>Is TV a reasonable option in the media mix or has a decline in effectiveness made it an undesirable way to spend your money? </li></ul>

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ARF conducted a meta-analysis of seven US databases, 388 cases <ul><li>The ARF wanted to factually inform this issue via a meta-analysis…let’s harvest what the industry has learned! </li></ul><ul><li>To integrate the results across databases, we used an indexing approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Choose a “dependent variable” for each database (some measure of impact vs. weight on an “impressions” rather than dollar basis) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Average all the cases across time in a given database on this dependent measure and call that an index of 100 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Analyze the index of cases over time (trending up or down) and/or compare the index of effectiveness across different media platforms </li></ul></ul>

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing <ul><li>Even when controlling for copy quality and wearout, TV advertising effectiveness appears to be increasing. </li></ul>Index of Incremental Days of Sales / Persuasion Points Delivered

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TV Advertising does NOT appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing Index of Incremental Days of Sales / Persuasion Points Delivered

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Conclusions <ul><li>TV advertising does not appear to be declining in effectiveness, and perhaps is even increasing </li></ul><ul><li>TV can be an effective platform </li></ul><ul><li>TV appears to work best at generating brand awareness </li></ul><ul><li>Marketers must be alert to the dynamic nature of TV as long-form video becomes more available via other platforms and as TV becomes interactive and targetable </li></ul>