Kale Pearson takes over at quarterback for an Air Force team searching for leaders on offense. / Tim Heitman, USA TODAY Sports

by Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports

by Paul Myerberg, USA TODAY Sports

For the first time since 2006, the year prior to coach Troy Calhoun's arrival, Air Force won fewer than seven games. For the first time since 2006, Air Force was outscored in a season. Last year's defense allowed 377 points, the third-most in program history.

Are these negative signs? I'd say so. But are they reasons for concern? No, not really. Though Air Force has been trending downward the last two years â?? 13-13 combined since the start of the 2011 season â?? the Falcons have, to be fair, lost four games by single digits, five by 11 points or less and six by 14 points or less.

It was only two years ago that Air Force scored 454 points, the fourth-highest total in school history â?? so the offense isn't broken. Likewise, the Falcons' 2011 defense ranked third in the Mountain West Conference in yards allowed per game. So what happened last season? The Falcons struggled. It happens.

LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION

If all goes according to plan â?? if the injury bug doesn't grab the Falcons once again â?? there's enough talent to keep the bowl streak alive. Can Air Force win the Mountain West? I don't think so. But thanks to a fairly easy schedule and the projected progression from last year's reserves, the Falcons should win seven or eight games before making a program-record sixth straight bowl appearance.

2012 RECAP

- In a nutshell: Unfortunately, last season will likely be remembered as the year Air Force lost to both Navy and Army, not to mention the year Air Force lost to UNLV â?? and I'm fully aware which one stings worse, but let's not forget that the Falcons lost to UNLV. On paper, perhaps, it was a bit of a lost season: Air Force failed to notch a truly marquee win while finishing third in the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, as noted. In the bigger picture, the Falcons were able to return to postseason for the sixth year in a row despite a very young roster, especially one for a program typically heavy on junior and senior contributors. A total of 25 players made their first career starts in 2012, the second-most of any team in the FBS. Usually, and even when returning fewer than 10 starters, the Falcons are dominated by players with at least two or three years of experience in Calhoun's system. The team's youth played a factor in the seven-loss season.

- High point: A 48-31 win over Nevada on Oct. 26 marked the high point. It was the third of three wins in a row and four wins in five tries for Air Force, pushing it to 5-3 (4-1 in the Mountain West) heading into November.

- Low point: The Falcons collapsed over the year's final month-plus, dropping four of five to head into the offseason on a low note. The worst loss? Oh, that's easy: Army 41, Falcons 21.

- Tidbit: The Falcons have scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of the last 47 games, the longest active streak in the FBS. The last time Air Force went without a rushing score was on Oct. 3, 2009, in a 16-13 loss to Navy.

- Tidbit (Army and Navy edition): As discussed, last year's team lost to both Army and Navy. While losing to the Midshipmen is nothing new â?? the Falcons won two in a row from 2010-11 but lost seven straight from 2003-9 â?? dropping games to both Commander-in-Chief's Trophy rivals in the same year is a fairly rare occurrence. That's happened only five times: 2005, 1996, 1978, 1977 and 1972.

- Tidbit (November edition): What happened to the Falcons' offense in November? Air Force ranked 27th in the FBS in scoring in August and September, averaging 37.8 points per game, and ranked 43th nationally in October, averaging 31.3 points per game. In November, however, the Falcons averaged only 16.5 points per game, tying them with Arkansas for 113th in the FBS.

- Troy Calhoun (Air Force '89), 48-33 after six seasons with the Falcons. After going 9-4 in 2007, Calhoun and the Falcons grabbed matching eight-win finishes in each of the following two seasons before returning to nine wins in 2010. This run gave the program its most wins over a four-year span since winning 36 from 1995-98. Even if the Falcons have slipped to 13 over the last two seasons, Calhoun's successful turn at his alma mater has served as a clear indication that this program is back on the map in the Mountain West.

Only the sixth coach in program history â?? Air Force's first team was in 1956 â?? Calhoun inherited the difficult task of replacing Fisher DeBerry, by far the program's most successful coach (169-109-1). Calhoun's first season exceeded expectations: nine wins, tying Ben Martin for the most by a first-year coach in program history, and a trip to the Armed Forces Bowl, the team's first bowl appearance since 2002. Air Force experienced a five-game improvement over a 4-8 2006 season, that fall's third-largest turnaround in the FBS. In recognition of this progress, Calhoun was honored as the Mountain West Coach of the Year and was a finalist for national coach of the year.

The Academy realizes what it has in Calhoun; it rewarded his tremendous 2007 season with a five-year extension, hoping to keep Calhoun at his alma mater for the foreseeable future. A former quarterback and assistant with the Falcons (1989-94), Calhoun has also served as an assistant at Ohio (1995-2000) and Wake Forest (2001-2) â?? both stops under Jim Grobe â?? and with the Denver Broncos (2003-5) and the Houston Texans (2006). Calhoun was the offensive coordinator with the Texans, helping Houston triple its win total from 2005.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

- Offense: Junior Kale Pearson should get the nod as Air Force looks to replace Connor Dietz, a one-year starter for the Falcons, and this should signal a continuation of the program's run-based offensive style. Right? Let's say this: If Pearson's the starter â?? as most expect he'll be â?? don't look for Air Force to suddenly develop a more balanced attack, blending the running game with more activity through the air. This isn't a bad thing, mind you. Air Force continues to roll out one of the nation's sturdiest ground attacks despite the lack of a prototypical passing game, and there's no reason to think the offense will sputter given Pearson's questionable ability to deliver as a passer. Basically, Pearson is a smaller â?? yet still tough â?? runner who should threaten the 800-yard mark and give Air Force a nice weapon in the red zone. To me, that's more than enough. He must improve somewhat as a passer, however, especially after a very rocky debut as Dietz's backup a year ago. Behind Pearson stands sophomore Jaleel Awini, a stronger passer who could see a large role in certain packages.

There's some lost production in the running, with Dietz, Cody Getz and Wes Cobb all gone â?? a trio that combined for 2,447 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2012 â?? so Air Force is looking for depth as it prepares for fall camp. Two returning contributors, senior Anthony LaCosta and junior Jon Lee (545 yards), lead the charge. The former, LaCosta, should be the breakthrough star for this offense; LaCosta is nimble, athletic and tough â?? everyone on this team is tough â?? and should flourish in the backfield after moving to safety out of necessity a season ago. Lee, on the other hand, gave the Falcons some solid if inconsistent production as Getz's backup a year ago. With junior Broam Hart entrenched at fullback, Air Force merely needs one or two unknowns to pick up the slack in reserve, whether that's a fullback like Paco Solano or fresh-faced rookies like Devin Rushing and Marques Stevenson. The running game will again rank among the top five nationally.

The star of this offense is senior receiver Ty MacArthur (24 receptions for 411 yards, 467 yards rushing), and Air Force needs to do whatever it takes â?? design whatever package, create whatever scheme â?? to get him the ball as often as possible. In my opinion, MacArthur's ability to make plays in space, whether that's as a receiver or a runner, makes him the most valuable contributor on this roster. MacArthur's running mate in the starting lineup, junior Sam Gagliano, has some shiftiness and solid hands â?? but he's a bit too similar to MacArthur, and even if that's not a bad thing Air Force could use a bigger receiver as a complementary piece. Look for the tight ends to get involved: Garrett Griffin is the projected starter, with junior Marcus Hendricks in reserve.

The beat goes on up front: Air Force loses senior starters, enters the following season with senior starters. This is how it goes; the Falcons might be go young elsewhere, might be tempted to roll with talent over age at other positions, but when it comes to the offensive line, nothing trumps experience and a working knowledge of this system. This year's front returns two starters, seniors David Lore and Drew Kerber, and should eventually start four seniors â?? this is a good thing. Kerber isn't assured of a starting role: Air Force currently has him second on the two-deep, behind senior Moshood Adeniji, but I'm not sure if that will last. Elsewhere, the lone non-senior is out at left tackle, where sophomore Matt Rochell seems set for a starting role. In summation, from left to right: Rochell at left tackle, Lore at left guard, senior Austin Hayes at center, either Kerber or Adeniji at right guard and senior Jerry Henry at right tackle. It's a solid group.

- Defense: Some changes are afoot on this defense, primarily along the front seven, and as with any young and reworked defense, this could be a boom-or-bust situation â?? either the Falcons explode behind a very athletic and talented group or the defense collapses due to its overall inexperience. Then again, there is a middle ground: Air Force has talent, so perhaps overall ability leads to an improvement over last season's fairly embarrassing performance. What does Air Force need to do defensively, anyway? The Falcons simply need to do just enough against the run â?? an area where this team has struggled over the last few seasons â?? to take advantage of an always solid secondary. Could it really be that simple?

The secondary will be one of the three best in the Mountain West â?? and will get back into a groove after an average 2012 season, based on the program's recent success defending the pass. Three starters return from a year ago: seniors Chris Miller (56 tackles) and Steffon Batts (77 tackles, 2 interceptions) at cornerback and junior Christian Spears (91 tackles) at safety. At least one of this trio will earn all-conference honors; my money's on Batts, though Spears isn't far behind. The one new starter is junior safety Jemal Byrd, the backup to Spears a season ago; if Byrd scuffles â?? a possibility, I suppose, due to his lack of adequate experience â?? the Falcons could also turn to junior Justin DeCoud. Any group with these three returning starters is going to take a nice step forward.

The front seven has some pieces to replace. At linebacker, which we'll discuss below, the Falcons are segueing to four new starters, a quartet with a combined three career starts. That's a concern. In comparison, and even if a handful of seniors must be replaced, the front three in the Falcons' 3-4 system return more than a few underclassmen with prior experience â?? either as starters or leading reserves. The group that seems closest to a breakthrough are the Falcons' ends: Air Force goes four deep at the position, with juniors Riley Cannon, Dillon Beschel and Nick Fitzgerald (20 tackles, 4.0 for loss) joining standout sophomore Alex Hansen (36 tackles, 4.0 sacks). How will this rotation play out? All four will play, obviously, with Fitzgerald an option to shift inside thanks to his larger frame. Keep an eye on Hansen, a young talent only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.

I like the idea of moving Fitzgerald to tackle in certain packages, primarily on third down or in clear passing situations, but he's not an every-down option on the nose. Here's the problem: Air Force really doesn't have any lineman large enough or strong enough to handle the grind along the interior. What about senior Dana Luebbe? He's clocking in at about 245 pounds. Junior Troy Timmerman? He's about 250 pounds. At 265, Fitzgerald might be needed more inside than out, especially given the team's other options at end. In total, while the lack of size is a concern, the Falcons can offset this deficiency with speed, aggressiveness and technique. This group is not going to do a great job against the run, unfortunately.

- Special teams: The Falcons' kicking game needs to be overhauled. It will be: Will Conant is the new kicker and senior Zach Hoffman the likely new punter, though senior Briceton Cannada remains an option in both spots. LaCosta lends the return game a degree of explosiveness, though Calhoun will try to find another option or two to help carry the load while the senior takes on a larger role in the backfield.

POSITION(S) TO WATCH

- Linebacker: Analysis: It's never a good thing when a 3-4 defense needs to replace four starting linebackers. The Falcons' entire front seven is in flux after last season, but no unit on this roster is experiencing more turnover than these linebackers, a largely raw group with, perhaps, enough talent to survive before the light clicks on during the second half. That's the goal, at least. A few new contenders have a degree of experience in reserve roles, like junior Joey Nichol and sophomore Reggie Barnes, so it'd be a surprise if this pair aren't viewed as locked-in starters heading into fall camp â?? Nichol one of the two inside linebackers, Barnes one of two on the outside. I think Air Force has the potential to do some different things at outside linebacker, where junior Steven Sumpter joins Barnes, due to the pair's speed and athleticism in space; Sumpter could be a dangerous weapon coming off the edge while Barnes should be an asset as a hybrid fifth defensive back. Inside, Nichol will team with sophomore Connor Healy, another lighter linebacker who should be productive if kept clean by the front three. That's the key: Air Force's defensive front needs to keep this young and light linebacker corps free of blockers to take advantage of the group's overall speed. To be honest, the unit could develop into something special if given room to operate.

GAME(S) TO WATCH

- Navy: Given Army's up-and-down unpredictability, I'd say it's a given that the winner of the Falcons' date with Navy will take home the trophy. (Of course, I'd also have said it was a given that the Falcons would not have lost by three scores to the Cadets a year ago.) In terms of league play, Air Force's quest for another five-win season demands victories against the lower half over the year's second half. The first half, on the other hand, is a doozy.

SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION

- In a nutshell: I expect this younger and inexperienced team â?? especially on the defensive side of the ball â?? to struggle early before finding its footing during the year's second half, securing another seven-win season and a program-record seventh postseason appearance in a row with a strong close. I do think this team will have some issues early, but that should be expected: Air Force will team a younger roster, one with 14 new starters, with a dangerously potent stretch in September and October, and that's not a good combination. Will this team be better than 4-4 heading into November, when it takes on Utah State, Boise State, Nevada, Navy, San Diego State and Notre Dame?

I think 3-5 is a safer bet; I also think winning all four games in November is a safe bet. But let's look at things from a positive perspective: What if Air Force is ahead of the curve? If that's the case, if the Falcons hit the ground running in September and can handle this difficult slate, I wouldn't be surprised if this team ends up winning nine games in the regular season. That's possible, though not entirely probable. Again, what's more likely is that the Falcons sputter a bit coming out of the gate but develop into a typically aggressive, tough, physical, Calhoun-coached team in the second half. If not a real contender to Boise State, the Falcons are neck-and-neck with Utah State for second place in the East.

A few things to watch: Pearson's development under center, LaCosta's return to the offense, the seniors on the offensive line, MacArthur's exploits at receiver, the young and promising ends, the youth at linebacker and the experience in the secondary. There are some very nice aspects of this roster, and those that are a concern â?? linebacker and elsewhere â?? have the potential to blossom during the course of the season. I'm convinced that this team will be very dangerous by the start of November.

- Dream season: Air Force treads water early and then turns it on late, securing nine wins in the regular season and a second-place finish in the East Division.

- Nightmare season: The Falcons close strong, but it's already too late. Air Force finishes outside of bowl eligibility for the first time in Calhoun's tenure.

- All-name team nominee: P Briceton Cannada.

UP NEXT

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