000
FXUS65 KTWC 112131
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Plenty of cloud cover thanks to a low pressure system
sitting over Baja California. This low will sit to our south into
Thursday with clouds and potentially a few sprinkles at times near
the Mexico border. Then mostly clear and dry through next weekend
with above normal temperatures continuing.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Considerable cloudiness continued across the area in
association with a weak upper low over the Baja Spur this afternoon.
Models track this low across Sonora, Mexico tonight through late
Wednesday. Light showers or sprinkles will be possible south of
Tucson, especially in the vicinity of the upper low near the
International Border. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain
above normal this week. Models hint at another system approaching
Baja and northern Mexico late in the weekend. Similar scenario as
the upper low passing through tonight into Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid thru 13/00Z.
bKN-OVC cigs likely at all sites through at least Tuesday afternoon
as low pressure remains nearly stationary near the Gulf of
California. Winds will favor the east/southeast this
evening/overnight with an increase in winds forecast after 15Z
Tuesday. Expect easterly winds in the 15-25kt range at all sites mid
morning through late afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry air in place at the surface should preclude much in the way
of showers across the area as low pressure remains nearly stationary
south of the U.S. border. Easterly winds will increase during the
day on Tuesday but critical thresholds should not be realized.
Outside of Tuesday, expect typical diurnal winds across the area.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
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