Ian Copsey is a veteran analyst having begun his career in Forex 28 years ago. He is author of "Integrated Technical Analysis" and his new groundbreaking book "Harmonic Elliott Wave." He provides his popular daily forecast “The Harmonic Daily Forecaster” through his website www.harmonic-ewave.com.

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HARMONIC ELLIOTT WAVE

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

The market has calmed down after Friday but will the Dollar extend losses?

Well it should against the Yen… That downtrend, as slow and jagged as it may be, remains intact and does seem to point lower still. We could even find this breaking below the 79.56 low so be prepared for a possible test. Given that EURJPY has been making hard work of the upside it wouldn’t take too much to knock it off its perch. However, that remains in a firm, if unpleasant, consolidation the structure of which really hasn’t yet made itself known. Until it does it’s probably best not to place too much risk on this pair.

So what about the Europeans? GBPUSD stalled early and EURUSD didn’t exactly set the market alight. I still find the latter has a very mixed structure and I am a little concerned over whether this is developing as I had wanted. We are at a stage in the larger picture which looks critical. It still needs to build a base for a larger and more substantial rally but there are some signs of the current move potentially generating a corrective pattern rather than a trending one. The conflict is significant. A corrective structure would imply new lows, a trending structure would imply the opposite – a correction but then strong, strong gains. We need to wait and watch with care.

However, in both EURUSD and USDCHF I cannot see any strong reversal signals that will completely reverse the weekly Dollar downtrend…

I actually still favor gains in both EURUSD and USDCHF, though the break level in the former is quite close. For GBPUSD I remain open as it really hasn’t aggressively extended the losses seen last week. This tends to bode well*overall but there’s still some potential short term weakness while the market remains subdued.

I still have a mild preference for AUDUSD gains and also USDCAD which tends to sum up the market right now as there seems limited correlation across the Dollar-currency pairs. Thus it is probably best to take things carefully until this sorts itself out.

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DISCLAIMER: Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. It must be understood that Forex trading involves substantial risk of losses as well as profits. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.

About Ian

I have been around in financial market for over 30 years, the last 23 years as a technical analyst. I focus heavily on price development and structure as it is the only way to generate accurate support and resistance. I use my own adapted form of Elliott Wave along with derivatives of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios to derive support and resistance. I provide a range of reports covering daily & weekly Forex, U.S. Indices.