August 23, 2012

Vote Early, Vote Often

So that one new voter that you register in your precinct -- think about it -- that one neighbor that you get to the polls on November the 2 I
want you to understand, that could be the one that
makes the difference. That one conversation, that one new volunteer you
recruit, that could be the one that puts this over the top.

The presidential election this year is November 6.

I ASKED CARNAC THE MAGNIFICENT... If I had to guess (and doesn't the bloggers union have some such requirement?), I would say our First Lady is looking to the past rather than the future - November 2 2010 was a glorious day for the voters but less so for the Democrats, and we hope to repeat that result in 2012.

"New claims for unemployment benefits took an unexpected jump in the latest week, raising more concerns about the struggling job market and providing futher incentive for the Federal Reserve to jump in and help the economy.

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that seasonally-adjusted initial claims rose 4,000 to 372,000. That’s compared to a decline of 1,000 that economists on average had been expecting."

Gawker.com has just obtained thousands of Bain capital financial documents.

"We just need Florida....we just won Florida"

"You mean all those seniors who benefited from the Romney/Bain 80% investment success rate are going to complain and vote for the side that wants panels of bureaucrats deciding if they can live or die? Who has so tanked the economy they've lost their retirements, their homes, and have to let their kids and grandkids move back in with them?"

"CNS News reports that Obama said that Romney's donors should be sending their Romney donations not to Mitt, but to college Scholarship funds: “They should be contributing that to a scholarship fund to send kids to college."

Heck, the Breitbart offered $100k in scholarship money to anyone who could prove the Tea party hurled racist epithets at the Congressional Black Caucus and they just left that money sitting there.

PPP says the Va Senate race is ties 46-46. I suppose that means Allen is winning.

"CNS News reports that Obama said that Romney's donors should be sending their Romney donations not to Mitt, but to college Scholarship funds: “They should be contributing that to a scholarship fund to send kids to college."

The JEF is impossible to parody after that tasteless attempt to get people to send him a campaign donation instead of otherwise giving a private citizen a birthday or wedding present. What a boorish lowlife clod from somebody who allows his own sibling (allegedly) to live in squalor.

We need more transparency here. I demand that Moochelle release her grade school report cards! How did she get past 1st grade (reading a calendar) or third grade arithmetic? There's something rotten in the Chcago schools with these social promotions. !

“As a member of Congress, I believe that working to protect the most vulnerable in our society is one of my most important responsibilities, and that includes protecting both the unborn and victims of sexual assault. In reviewing my off-the-cuff remarks, it’s clear that I misspoke in this interview and it does not reflect the deep empathy I hold for the thousands of women who are raped and abused every year. Those who perpetrate these crimes are the lowest of the low in our society and their victims will have no stronger advocate in the Senate to help ensure they have the justice they deserve.
“I recognize that abortion, and particularly in the case of rape, is a very emotionally charged issue. But I believe deeply in the protection of all life and I do not believe that harming another innocent victim is the right course of action. I also recognize that there are those who, like my opponent, support abortion and I understand I may not have their support in this election."

"REPRESENTATIVE TODD AKIN: People always want to try and make that as one of those things, well, how do you, how do you slice this particularly tough sort of ethical question. It seems to me, first of all, from what I understand from doctors, that's really rare. If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down. But let's assume that maybe that didn't work or something. You know, I think there should be some punishment, but the punishment ought to be on the rapist and not attacking the child."

"At the end of the conversation, Gregory asked Schwarzenegger what he thought about President Obama's quip on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno" that his recent bowling score of an unimpressive 129 in the White House bowling alley was tantamount to a performance by a Special Olympics participant. Obama apologized and called Special Olympics Chairman Timothy Shriver to apologize.

Shriver's sister, California First Lady Maria Shriver, issued a statement expressing disappointment with the comment and the laughter that followed.

Schwarzenegger said Sunday that "I know where [Obama's] heart is at."

"I think that he loves Special Olympics and he would do anything that he can to be helpful to Special Olympics," Schwarzenegger said. "This was one of those slips that, you know, you always regret afterward. And I've had mine, believe me, plenty of them where I had to go back and apologize. And I'm sure everyone in public life has had those moments.

RickB-- Va close Senate race-- between dissappointed blacks and youth not voting, and conservatives who stayed home in 2008 voting the 2012 split in Va should be something like 36% Dem 34% Repub 30% Indie. Allen should win, but he'll have to run a good campaign-- he could easily lose to a faux Dem 'moderate'.

O.k. Pregnancies from rape amount to about .5% of all pregnancies, if you accept the numbers, is that rare or not? 3-5% of rapes end in a pregancy. Rare or not?

It's more difficult for a womn to get pregnant if ahe is under stress? Is rape not stressful?

Legitimate rape? I'll assume he meant forcible rape, as opposed to statutory rape, etc. I don't know, but I fail to see the latching onto that one word unless you are looking for a reason to be agreived.

The punishment ought to be on the rapist unstead of attacking the child? Is this shocking? Controversial?

What is it, I don't get it. Maybe DOT can explain what so raises his ire.

I go by the worst case scenario. 2008 enthusiasm and demographic splits used with current approval or preference numbers. If you dig into PPP or Quinnipiac propaganda you find enthusiasm gaps which are so wide we should be talking about a huge sucking sound rather than a wave. For example, if we dump today's Quinnipiac output inot an emesis basin and sift a bit, we find this:

More Enthusiastic About Voting this Year
(Among likely voters)Florida Ohio WisconsinNow8/1Now8/1Now8/8 Among Republicans53%44%45%37%48%42% Among Democrats36%24%34%32%32%31%

I appreciate the invitation to speak today among these distinguished public officials about the future of Lake Tahoe, and I especially want to thank Sen. Heller for bringing us all together today for a candid discussion about the future of Lake Tahoe.

When I visit with community groups here – not the politicians or the professional environmentalists, but the shopkeepers and employees who actually live and work here – their singular struggle is with a stagnating economy and a staggering unemployment rate hovering around 16 percent.

The El Dorado County Board of Supervisors last year received an extensive economic study of the Tahoe Basin. It warns that the occupancy rate of hotels here is running at a dismal 30 percent. Food stamp usage is up 40 percent in the last four years. School enrollment is down 35 percent over the past decade. The basin’s population has plunged by nine percent. The study’s manager warns – quote – “The middle class is fleeing the (Tahoe) basin in droves.”

Three years ago at this summit, I said, “I hope today we can agree that restoring the proper balance between the environment and the economy is not only the prudent thing to do, but also the right the thing to do.”

That hasn’t happened.

TRPA’s executive director seems to be trying to move toward a more sympathetic approach to local concerns, but she’s often stymied by her Board. Nowhere in TRPA’s mission statement is there a word about the economy. You have to dig deep into their web site to find even a passing reference to it.

The Tahoe citizens who call my office complain of being thwarted in their attempts to protect their property from fire danger, or to make minor and harmless improvements to their homes, or of being assessed exorbitant fees, or of being denied simple permits by boards they can’t even elect.

They feel they have lost control of their own communities to state and regional agencies that are utterly unresponsive to the people who actually live here.

They feel that every attempt to develop or make property improvements is crushed by a permitting process that usually costs more than the project itself. In one case, a homeowner who needed to make $8,000 in pier repairs found it would cost between $20,000 and $25,000 just in permit fees.

Worse, none of the agencies coordinate with each other, so one agency will require actions that another agency prohibits.

The Lahonton Water Board is the worst of them. It repeatedly blocked fuel reduction projects by the US Forest Service’s Tahoe Basin Unit, until the Forest Service’s new manager, Nancy Gibson, went to a Board hearing in April and essentially said “the next fire is on you.”

Homewood resort is in desperate need of a long-term use permit for winter skiing that has been going on there for 40 years – and upon which $40 million of private financing depends. Yet, even after receiving approval from TRPA and the US Forest Service, the effort is now stalled by environmental litigation.

Today’s theme is private-public partnerships for environmental improvement, but there’s not going to be a private sector left unless we get serious about economic improvement.

Tahoe’s unique environment and breath-taking beauty comprise a vital foundation both for tourism and for the quality of life of its residents.

But tourists don’t go where they’re not welcomed, or where facilities are left to decay because simple repairs can’t be made, or where prices are inflated to pay for exorbitant fees, or where forest fires have scarred the landscape.

And as for quality of life, people are fleeing Lake Tahoe, and a lot of them are heading to the Nevada desert. With all due respect, no conceivable act of God could turn Lake Tahoe into a less desirable place for people to live and work and raise a family than the Nevada desert. Only acts of government could do that. And they have.

Lake Tahoe has no more zealous or trustworthy guardians of its environment and its economy than the people who actually live here, and it is high time they had these decisions restored to them through local elections.

I offer these thoughts as something for us on the platform to consider as we drive away this afternoon, and leave the residents of Tahoe to live with the result of the decisions that they once made for themselves – but that are now made for them by regional boards they can’t elect.

I'm reposting this from the other thread which displays a little more ego than I like:

I really want to know more about this war on women? Is it something new? Cause I recall another iteration of it.

I started working in the 2nd grade (giving out milk and cookies to get mine free). NO one told me a boy should have the job. I worked every year after that. I worked in the cafeteria, I babysat all through high school. I don't know of any boys who had got jobs babysitting. I was even allowed to dish out ice cream to hungry customers.

I went to college, I can't remember any problem being female in getting in. I can't even remember worrying about it. I certainly was allowed to work the whole time I was at college, both at the school and in the community. No one ever told me I didn't have the correct anatomy to bag groceries or wait on tables.

Of course it all changed when I got out. I needed a job. I applied to be a claims adjuster. Liberty Mutual had recently been told they had to let women be claims adjusters. Who knows if some guy was more qualified than I? But times were different so they put me in the front of the line. 2 years later I was asked to apply to be a Risk Manager in a growing software company. They wanted a woman because the 2 other people in the department were men. I have no idea how many resumes they got from qualified men. But I went straight to the front of the line.

I got into MBA school - which I truly sucked at. Some guy would probably have done better. And then I applied to law school. The fact that I was both older (by then) and a woman, guaranteed my acceptance. I couldn't hold a candle to either the men or women who were there straight out of college. They had to have much better credentials just to get accepted. I only had to be female and old. I was apparently the face of past discrimination, and clearly deserved to go to the front of the line over and over again.

I was able to get a job in a law firm during my first year - I'm pretty sure that was based on my resume, which I'm pretty sure was helped by the facts I stated above. That firm hired me out of law school and 2 years later I started my own firm. I had an awful lot of clients who wanted a female litigator because they were harder to come by. That woman thing was such a disadvantage.

This country is wasting many brilliant engineers' talent and time on federal government contract pork. There are even brainiac mathematicians and software engineers contracting to find the fraud in the volumes of other contracts. The waste isn't just money; it's talent.

Thanks for reposting that, Jane. I don't get it either. I suppose people will say I am a beneficiary of the sexual revolution or women's lib or whatever, since I didn't live through it.

Maybe that's true, but if so, what do all the young women like Sandra Fluke have to complain about? That they aren't receiving $12/month worth of free birth control pills? What the hell kind of "problem" is that?

RickB-- I think the enthusiasm gap in 2012 is key. Conservatives will crawl over broken glass and rusty nails to vote ABO, and Ryan as VP makes them happy to do so. The question is will Bam get 70M votes again? I don't see it, but that is the question.

You're supposed to adopt the "you didn't build that" attitude and vote Dem out of your deep gratitude for the Title IX preferences which have placed every woman in the country into positions which their own pathetic capabilities do not merit.

That's the foundation upon which true love for Big Brother has always rested.

They feel that every attempt to develop or make property improvements is crushed by a permitting process that usually costs more than the project itself.

This is one reason the permitting and codes are so widely ignored in the state. Many properties, particularly somewhat rural ones, often have "nonconforming" additions or septic tanks or the like. "Nonconforming" means not permitted, akin to "undocumented." Most just ignore it if it passes inspection.

He's at 42% with my worst case scenario and I'm satisfied using it until mid-September.

Thanks, Rick. That works for me.

I have been wondering about how pollsters miss landslides, though. Like with that Florida poll the other day. You keep calling person after person and they keep saying "Romney." And you say, that can't be right, there can't be that high a percentage voting Romney in FL, because Obama won FL by 3 points and thus and such many seniors voted for him and this is the demographic breakdown etc. etc. So you readjust back to something that looks more normal and comfortable according to your experience.

But look at 1980. Landslides do happen. Who thought Reagan would take Massachusetts? But he did. And the pollsters missed it.

But, as we have learned from your comments, interests, podcasts, enthusiasm, energy and friendliness - your intangibles are as valuable as your perceived frog-leaping. At my old firm, we took special interest in young engineers who knew more than how to calculate thermal loads or soil bearing. We also wanted people who could think critically, handle pressure, get along with others, light up a problem with creativity and most importantly be solution oriented not a pessimist about the difficulty of the problem.

There are many intangible attributes that we all have but we don't understand their importance to others.

The so-called War on Women is another part of the leftist victimology serial, along with the War on Poverty, the War on War, the War on Human Rights, the War on Gays, the War on Discrimination and the War on Free Speech.

Go to the Gallup Election Center and run the current preferences by age group or ethnic group against the 2008 exit data and you'll find him at 42%. Gallup is running 3-4% rich Dem to get their current 46%.

The 2008 electorate would give him 14% fewer votes today, if given the chance.

Rick, I guess I just will never have the necessary love for Title IX that Big Brother requires, but at least gratitude for the work of others who have gone before is a decent sentiment. Grousing about non-existent problems is not.

What raises my ire is that the man made an absolutely unnecessary and mind-numbingly stupid statement in the middle of a very important election campaign. A statement that even a moron should know would cost him the election, as indeed it has.

"But the important thing is, where's his heart?""

In the case of Akin, the important thing is where's head, and the answer is it's so far up his ass he has turned himself into a jug handle.

This country is wasting many brilliant engineers' talent and time on federal government contract pork. There are even brainiac mathematicians and software engineers contracting to find the fraud in the volumes of other contracts. The waste isn't just money; it's talent.

And then there's the regulatory burden.

In the opening phases of my current project -- before it gained enough notoriety that everyone was familiar with it -- the most common first questions were "Do we have to worry about SOX?" and "Do we have to worry about HIPPA?"

Well, my enthusiasm to vote was slightly but not seriously diminished at the start of this Akin business, but the unbridled vitriolic slanders and vicious, gratuitous character assassination by commenters HERE - serving no useful purpose that I can see besides venting personal indignation -- has reduced my enthusiasm to close to zero.

I can take heated disagreement, disappointment, calls for action/reaction -- but the string of angry and ugly name calling is just hatefulness and it's ugly and makes me think perhaps I'm better off going elsewhere for the next few months.

Rob-I was reading through what some of this systems clowns think the 21st century economy is going to look like and you know they have sucked on the govt teat all their adult life. They think being entrepreneurial is supplementing with locked in additional govt contracts.

And the nutsy execs are just looking for a way to stay where they currently are. When I go back 10 or 20 years it's always some company that has since gone down hill or been bought out.

Govt wants to regulate away the benefits of ownership without saying so and we end up with stagnancy. Next stop is actual contraction.

I've got Rudy Giuliani pegged for Attorney General
Petraeus goes to Defense
Not sure about State, but I'd send John Bolton back to muck out the U.N. stables.
Palin gets Interior
How about Anthony Watts at the E.P.A.?
Jeb Bush for Edu [I know, I know, you don't have to say it.]
I'll defer Treasury to the folks who know their financial assess from their elbows, and let Pofarmer delegate the Agri-gig.
Don't know why I'd put John Sununu at HHS, but for some reason I find that idea hysterically funny.
The Donald gets The HUD
Over at Energy, Dick Cheney wouldn't even have to show up, he could just play puppeteer from Jackson.
We could move John McCain out of the Senate into Veterans Affairs for a win/win. If he balks, we could promise him monthly appearances in televised hearings on Capitol Hill. Homeland Security goes to Jan Brewer
Scott Walker would be a nice poke in the eye at Labor, but John Kasich may need a job sooner. Transportation? Richard Branson!
Offering Commerce to the Koch Bros. might be a nice gesture.

You too can play this game, but just eliminating Departments out of hand doesn't count.

All told, we have accounted for nearly $18 million of charitable giving by Mitt Romney to date, roughly 8% of what we currently estimate his net worth to be and three times Obama’s net worth. Yet it is very likely that we are undercounting Romney’s total lifetime giving by many millions, as any exhaustive log of Romney’s pre-2010 out of pocket donations is locked away in the presidential candidate’s historical tax returns.

"I've heard that many of Todd Akins' constituents...like him a lot, because he represents their best interests, not the best interests of power brokers in the RNC, some of whom are wishy-washy, duplicitous Rinos."

Yeah, perhaps some RINOs consider social cons the real enemy, not the Dems.
"The only people we hate more than the
Romans are the f*ing Judean People's Front."

Rob, yes, it's different when you experience it. I've come into contact with a team of about ten well-trained (systems, math, software eng) brainiacs contracted to find federal contract fraud. What a waste. Imagine what a businessman with a good idea and two million bucks could do with such a team: create wealth. Get rid of the ocean of contracts and the fraud becomes detectable by ordinary methods. These brainiacs are wasting their talents and we all lose.

I picked up "Face of War" and starting on it.
A quick question...early on he quotes an American military historian who worked out that only about a quarter of soldiers fired their weapon in battle. The implication was that the majority just couldn't bring themselves to pull the trigger.
I seem to recall that the research was later called into question (and I think invalidated). Anyone got sharper memories of where this stands today?

I'm with AliceH. Although I lurk more than I comment I find myself less and less interested in lurking - such nastiness about Akin in every, single thread. Can't you give it a rest?
It will come down to what the voters in MO decide. Either they really want to get rid of McCaskill or they don't.
Regardless, I am moving on for awhile, too.

Why do people feel the need to announce they are leaving? Everywhere I've ever posted people announce they are leaving in a huff. I did it once myself over at I can't even remember the name of his blog, not because of posters but because of him. I don't want anyone to leave, ever, but I sure as hell don't want to beg anyone to stay either. Take a break. If you still don't want to post here, disappear. If you change your mind, come on back and chat a while.

AliceH and Suzanne:
Please STAY! We need your good sense and steady approach.
Posting here for about 8 years I can tell you that around election time everyone does get a bit overwrought.. We so want to defeat Obama. Fear of losing the Senate causes us to say things we might not in the hopes of securing victory. Please hang in for a while and I give you my promise I will be on my best behavior. Thanks! your friend mary rose

After a week of wailing over Akin's unhelpful, idiotic comments, only one person on this thread manages even a pro forma "hey, maybe you should keep those genocidal fantasies under your hat" rebuke to NK's unhelpful, idiotic comment that it might be a good idea to slaughter a bunch of innocent American Muslims.

Well, since I am one of the Akin detractors and yet also relatively new here, I feel rather like I've barged into someone's home and created a scene, clutching at my pearls and setting my hair on fire.

As a long time lurker and newbie poster, my thoughts (for what they are worth): people who post here have very strong opinions and beliefs, which is why they post. Some times these opinions/beliefs diverge and discussions can become heated and/or contentious and umbrage is taken. As the election season progresses, I'm guessing things will become more passionate. However, from my observations, the vast majority of posters here are not deliberately meanspirited (with certain troll exceptions) I really liked Jane 's recent suggestion to give yourself a brief time out when upset by any comments, refresh, and then come back. Everyone here contributes so much insight from so many different perspectives that I have been awe stricken. Of course, please realize the above comes from a person whose state celebrates "going Jersey ".

AliceH:
Older posters will tell you that I was initially mistaken to be a troll when I first started posting here. Thank God Cecil and H&R were able to determine that I was just a regular old conservative.

--The next obvious step is to come back and see who all wants you to stay. It has the feel of junior high.

Posted by: Sue | August 23, 2012 at 05:17 PM --

I'm the same young and tender age as you Sue and I have yet to see any grouping of adults that behaved significantly differently [except maybe worse] than a group of junior high kids.
Are my experiences unique?

Nearly everyone who has stormed off in a huff, or waltzed on back to the castle has returned after a brief hiatus.

Oddly, one of the most popular and well liked and brightest of commenters just silently up and left. No pounding of chest, no pulling of hair, no moaning nor groaning - just absence. Someday we all hope she returns, because well, those tasteful nudes were just so tasteful.