New Hope for Democracy in a Dynastic Land

Qatar’s emir announced in a television address on Tuesday that he was handing over power to a 33-year-old son.Credit
Mohammed Dabbous/Reuters

DOHA, Qatar — Now that he is set to become the new emir, the absolute ruler of Qatar, what possibly can Sheik Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani promise to the citizens of a tiny, incredibly rich country that seems to have everything?

In Qatar, the unemployment rate flirts with zero (it is 0.1 percent); infants have a per-capita income over $100,000; health, housing, low interest loans and educations are all provided. Qataris have a world-class television network in Al Jazeera, will host the World Cup in 2022, are building an airport that will eclipse the one in nearby Dubai and hope to soon be self-sufficient in food production.

There are some hints that already have at least a few Qataris excited. (For most, a beneficent feudal monarchy appears just fine, thanks, and they demonstrated their appreciation by lining up by the thousands, on foot and in their Mercedes and other luxury cars, to visit the two emirs, incoming and outgoing, in their palace on Tuesday and pledge their allegiance.)

Mr. Nauimi, who said he has known the incoming emir since the sheik was 9 years old, said Tuesday that Sheik Tamim had told him that Mr. Ajami would be released within a few days of the new emir’s accession to power. That does not speak to democracy as much as it does to the absolute power of the monarch, but all the same, Mr. Nauimi hoped it would be a signal of openness to come.

“There will be a lot of changes, definitely,” Mr. Nauimi said.

The outgoing emir already promised parliamentary elections by the end of the year — a constitutional requirement that is long overdue. Mr. Nauimi is among those agitating for amendments to the Constitution that would let that Parliament appoint the prime minister, paving the way for a constitutional monarchy inching closer to the British model and away from the autocratic style of the Persian Gulf states.

It would be the first such example in any of the gulf’s monarchies, and one of the few in the Arab world.

“I’m optimistic,” Mr. Nauimi said.

Optimistic, but not absolutely sure — in part because the governing family has consistently demonstrated that it has no tolerance to being challenged, or even criticized indirectly. In the absence of any sort of public agitation, change will come from the top down, not from the bottom up.

“I just don’t believe the people who say there won’t be any changes,” he said, offering what may be a case of wishful thinking.

Photo

Sheik Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, center, in Doha in May. Some analysts suggest that he will nudge Qatar in the direction of a British-style constitutional monarchy.Credit
Fadi Al-Assaad/Reuters

But what can the new emir change?

Many analysts say that Qatar’s aggressive interventionist foreign policy has become too integral a part of its national character to be rolled back. The betting is that the new foreign minister — expected to be appointed on Thursday with a new cabinet — will be promoted from within. Some here believe it may be Khalid al-Attiyah, the deputy foreign minister, who is close to the emir and a supporter of his many international ventures.

“I think you’ll see some very big gestures from Sheik Tamim,” said John Watts, who works here for BLJ Worldwide, a well-paid consulting firm that acts as strategic adviser to the royal family and the Qatari government. The release of Mr. Ajami, the imprisoned poet? “That may well be one of them.”

The outgoing emir himself seemed to be priming the pump for change in a televised address to the nation at 8 a.m. on Tuesday. (Oddly, because in the heat of summer few Qataris are actually awake that early).

“The time has come to turn a new leaf in the history of our nation, where a new generation steps forward to shoulder the responsibility with their dynamic potential and creative thoughts,” the emir said.

That of course could mean anything — or everything.

One official close to the royal family said that the new cabinet would include at least one woman, and possibly two — a first here, and a rarity in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.

“This is hugely exciting,” said Mike Holtzman, the president of BLJ Worldwide. While it is unusual in the region for a ruler to voluntarily step down, he said, “to those who follow Qatar, it is very much in keeping; they have invested heavily in their young people.”

The incoming emir is an enigma, even to his own people, because until now his role has been in the background. “I don’t think Tamim and his father are far apart, philosophically,” said one former diplomat who has served in Qatar and who spoke anonymously in keeping with protocol. “But he’s done a good job of playing his cards close to his chest.”

That has led to a school of thought here that he is socially conservative — none of his own three wives have anything like the high political profile role enjoyed by his mother, Sheika Mozah.

“It’s just not true” that he is socially conservative, Mr. Holtzman said. For years, he was in the wings as his father and his prime minister ran the country, so people had little basis on which to judge him.

“Now that he’s got the reigns, he’ll be showing concern for human rights, worker safety,” he said. “He has the wind at his back.”

And democracy?

“Well, Qatar is already a very open society.”

Robert F. Worth contributed reporting from Washington.

A version of this article appears in print on June 26, 2013, on Page A6 of the New York edition with the headline: New Hope for Democracy in a Dynastic Land. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe