James probably will opt out in Miami, but even if the Heat fail to win a third straight title this year, the chances of him leaving to go to L.A. or Cleveland are slim. Miami will make him a full max contract offer and James probably will take it.

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Carmelo Anthony, Knicks

Anthony will hit the free-agent trail, but given the lengths he went to in order to have Denver trade him to New York so that he could play in his hometown, he does not have much incentive to leave. Probably the only market that could lure Anthony away would be L.A., where he potentially could join up with Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Pau Gasol. Oh, and um … Mike D’Antoni.

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Chris Bosh, Heat

Bosh has an early termination option, and he probably will use it. The question becomes whether the Heat are willing to go deep into luxury-tax territory in order to keep Bosh, along with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. If not, Bosh is likely to be the best player to actually change teams next summer.

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Dwyane Wade, Heat

Injury concerns have mounted around Wade, particularly when it comes to his knee, but the fact remains that he is still an elite player when healthy and has been a part of all three Heat championships. There’s no way the Heat let him leave.

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Luol Deng, Bulls

Deng’s free agency could put the Bulls in a bind. They are already committed to paying out $55 million in 2014-’15 to the quartet of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson, and paying Deng his market value (he is only 28, remember) will put Chicago well into the range of the luxury tax—something they have been eager to avoid.

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Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks

Nowitzki has watched the Mavericks fail to land Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Deron Williams over the last three summers, and he will turn 36 next summer. It would be a longshot that he would leave Dallas, but if he wants another run at a championship, he would probably have to look elsewhere.

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Kobe Bryant, Lakers

Bryant would be higher on this list if he were not coming off Achilles’ tendon surgery. No matter how Bryant plays when he returns, he has made clear that he wants to finish his career as a Laker. But he has also said he won’t give the team a discount, which could create some trouble for L.A. as it looks to bulk up the roster.

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Pau Gasol, Lakers

Gasol is 33, but he is still a very effective big man. His first choice would be to remain in L.A., but it is unclear whether that is the choice that the Lakers would make, too—especially since Gasol could command a salary starting in the $12-13 million range, albeit only on a two- or three-year deal.

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Tim Duncan, Spurs

Eventually, time will catch up with Duncan, but it hasn’t happened yet. He will be 38, but is showing no signs of slowing down. Duncan has a player option for $10.3 million, and he could opt out and sign a similar deal. Or he could just play out the final year of his contract and not be a free agent at all. Either way, he is going to retire a Spur. Eventually.

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Rudy Gay, Raptors

Gay is a rare case. For most players, the final-year option of a contract is not big enough to warrant considering playing out the deal rather than going for long-term security. But in Gay’s case, it might be—he is scheduled to make $19.3 million next year, which is a lot to pass up, especially if the market might determine he is worth something like a four-year, $45 million deal.

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Paul Pierce, Nets

Pierce is 36, but he has held up well and is still an effective scorer. Where he winds up next year will depend in large part on how things go in Brooklyn this year—he would like to remain with Kevin Garnett, and playing for Jason Kidd could be to his liking. But he could return to Boston, too, or join Doc River with the Clippers.

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Zach Randolph, Grizzlies

Randolph might not opt out of the final year (at 417 million) of his contract, because he is 32 and is beginning to slow down. If he does, though, his market value might be disappointing—his PER in the last two years has been 17.9, and only twice in his 12-year career has he been below that.

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Andrei Kirilenko, Nets

The Nets’ signing of Kirilenko on a two-year, $6.4 million deal stirred resentment around the league, but chances are he will opt out of the deal next summer and look for a bigger payday. Problem is, he will be 33 then, with a long history of injuries.

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Andrew Bogut, Warriors

Bogut is another player who might not make it to the free-agent market—he has talked with the Warriors about an extension. If he does not sign, Bogut could be in for a windfall. His big problem has been health, but he is only 28, and if he stays healthy this year, he can re-establish his value.

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Marcin Gortat, Suns

Gortat’s production dipped once the Suns lost Steve Nash and his pick-and-roll feeds, but still, Gortat is a valuable big man who can be effective offensively and is a plus defender. Phoenix will look to deal Gortat before the end of the season, and it is possible that the team acquiring him will lock him up to a long-term contract, taking yet another name off the market.