Researchers Daniel M. Koretz and Mark Berends drew from two
nationally representative surveys of students to see whether increases
in mathematics grades between 1982 and 1992 bore any relationship to
changes in standardized- test scores over the same period. They found
no evidence of any widespread grade inflation—at least during
those years and in that subject. If anything, they found that for most
students, math grades declined once test scores were factored in.

"The picture isn't necessarily what people have heard it is, or what
they immediately see in their own communities," said Mr. Koretz, a
professor of education at Harvard University's graduate school of
education. He was a senior social scientist for the RAND Corp., a think
tank with offices in Santa Monica, Calif., and Arlington, Va., when he
conducted the study with Mr. Berends of RAND.

The College Board, based in New York City, hired the think tank to
flesh out a national picture of the trends that higher education
institutions sensed among students applying for college admissions.

"We have seen scores on the SAT increase slightly or remain stable,
yet there are much higher proportions of students today who are going
to college or planning to go to college and have A averages," said
Wayne J. Camara, the vice president for research and development at the
College Board, which has its own study on grade inflation due out later
this year.

Reports of grade inflation have likewise been widespread in the news
media. Articles point, for example, to high schools where as many as 16
seniors tie for valedictory honors, or elite colleges where few
students earn anything lower than a C. One fear is that letter grades
will become meaningless to admissions officers trying to sort out which
applicants are ready for college study and which are not.

Few studies, however, have explored those claims in any depth.

"I think a lot of the rhetoric is perhaps based on very selective
readings and putting a very selective lens on grade inflation," said
Mr. Berends, a senior social scientist in RAND's Virginia office. "And
it's a very tricky issue to study."

In contrast, the RAND study suggests that reports of grade inflation
might only be true for certain populations or time periods. For their
investigation, the researchers examined the transcripts and test scores
of nearly 24,000 students who took part in two federally funded
research projects: the High School and Beyond study and the National
Education Longitudinal Study of 1988. The former yielded data on
students enrolled in 12th grade in 1982; the latter focused on their
1992 counterparts.

While math grades did, in fact, creep up over those years, the
researchers found, test scores rose even more. When the score increases
were taken into account, the researchers found that students' math
grades actually declined from 1982 to 1992.

One exception to that trend came among the highest scoring 16 to 20
percent of students. In that category, the researchers saw no evidence
of falling grades.

Over the same period, students also began taking more math courses
and more of the courses that were traditionally considered
college-preparatory. When the researchers adjusted their numbers to
account for those increases as well as the rise in test scores, they
again found a decline in most students' grades.

Limits Acknowledged

But the researchers were also quick to point out their study's
limitations. They were unable to verify whether Algebra 1 in 1982
covered the same content as an Algebra 1 course a decade later, for
example, or whether school-to-school variation in grading standards
might mask inflationary grading trends in some schools.

In addition, while the tests used were statistically linked so that
the researchers could compare student proficiency on the same kinds of
test questions, the tests were not equivalent.

The College Board's forthcoming study tracks grading patterns for
college-going students from 1976 to 1999. Mr. Camara said it will show
that grade increases kept pace with SAT scores until 1988, when grades
outpaced scores on the admissions test and began climbing. Researchers
say more studies are needed, though, to get a clearer picture of where
those apparent changes in grading patterns occurred and what they might
mean.

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