THREATS IN THE GULF

THREATS IN THE GULF; Schwarzkopf on Hussein: Calculating 'Carter Factor'

Published: October 13, 1994

BIRMINGHAM, Ala., Oct. 12—
The allied commander in the Persian Gulf in 1991 says the most likely explanation for Saddam Hussein's tactics is "the Jimmy Carter factor" -- the hope that a crisis could bring in the former President as a mediator, and that Iraq could get a better deal from Mr. Carter than it has got from the Bush and Clinton Administrations.

Asked about his old foe after a speech here on Tuesday night, the commander, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, said the Iraqi troop movements in southern Iraq may have been nothing more than routine military exercises. But the general, now retired, said there were more troops than normal for basic maneuvers.

"Then there's the question of the sanctions against Iraq," he continued. "Saddam, perhaps because he is such a megalomaniac, is trying to intimidate the United Nations into lifting those sanctions."

"The most plausible reason, however, is the Jimmy Carter factor," he said. "Probably Saddam Hussein has seen compromises being made in North Korea and in Haiti. To him, if you compromise with him, you lose. So he sends his troops down, then pulls them back and says, 'Look how nice I've been. Now send Jimmy Carter in to fix it.' "

General Schwarzkopf defended President Bush's decision three years ago to halt ground operations against Iraq after 100 hours. Many critics note that this left the Iraqi Army battered but not broken, and left Mr. Hussein in charge.

"There are plenty of people now with 20-20 hindsight that say we should not have left him in power," the general said. But the goal was to get Iraq out of Kuwait, "and everyone understood that, from the generals on down to the buck privates."