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NFL Picks

Add 'Over' to NFL Picks in Raiders/Patriots Week 3 Clash

Week 3 of the new NFL football season sees the Oakland Raiders traveling cross country to New England and Gillette Stadium to face the Patriots on Sunday afternoon in an AFC matchup with a monster line.

Oakland Raiders vs. New England Patriots (-15½, Pinnacle), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT: The Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick avoided a nightmarish 0-2 start to the season by smashing the Vikings in Minneapolis on Sunday and covering the 3½-point spread in the process. Here, New England will be laying the highest number of the season (15½ early Tuesday) and the way Oakland has played in its first two games is the obvious reason why someone playing the favorite in this game will have to lay some serious lumber. The Raiders (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) have lost by a combined 49-28 margin in their first two games of the season to the not-so-mighty Jets and the Texans. Oakland ranks 31st in Rushing Yards (63.0 ypg) and 32nd—the worst in the league—on Rush Defense (200 ypg), but all that matters here in these Internet spaces are whether or not we think 15½ is too little or not enough or if the Total of 47 seems too high or too low.

Two Teams Probably Headed In Different Directions This NFL Season
New England QB Tom Brady (398 yards passing)and the Patriots (13-5 SU LY, 9-7 ATS) are the favorites again to win the AFC despite 1-0 starting records by their division mates, the Dolphins, the Bills and the Jets. And with Julian Edelman (176 receiving yards TD) and TE Rob Gronkowski (8 receptions, 72 yards, TD) reliable as a pet dog to Brady, both should score on Sunday in Foxborough so check both their NFL odds in the Anytime TD Scorer markets when they come out. The host Patriots (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) should dictate the pace although you know the Raiders will make it interesting for at least the first half before folding. The last time these two AFC teams met was back in 2011 when New England won (31-19) and covered the point spread. And with fear driving this team after the Opening Day loss to the Dolphins, Belichick and the Pats will have more focus as they showed last Sunday against the Vikings.

Are There any Significant Trends To Talk About Heading Into This Game?
The Total (47, Pinnacle) is worth a look here, and the trends, at least as far as the Patriots are concerned, point toward the Over. New England Overs are 4-2 over the L6 and Pats games have gone Over in 12 of the L18 (12-6). As far as the side, New England is 3-0 ATS L3 against the Silver and Black but just 1-3-1 ATS L5 here at home at Gillette Stadium—reason enough to be scared off the hosts. The Patriots are also 7-0 against the AFC West, so we may have a blowout in store here and the First Half line with the Patriots may suit some gamblers better for this game. New England was also 7-2 ATS as Home Favorite last season, while Oakland was 4-3-1 ATS as a Road Underdog.

Also relevant trends as far as the sides go here: New England is 17-7 SU in its L24 overall and 5-0 in its L5 at Gillette Stadium; the Raiders are a pathetic 1-12 SU in their L 13 on the Road. And three trends which also support backing the Over here in one of the United States of America’s original 13 colonies are that Patriots Overs are 7-3 over the L10, 5-0 the L5 at Home and Raiders Road Overs are 4-2 over the L6. There will be points. And defensive sloppiness.

In the end, when making your NFL picks keep in mind, Brady and the Machine should be able to put up around five TDs and a FG (38) at home with its pass-happy attack and quick strike offense while the Raiders should grind out about two TDS and two FGs (20) behind QB Derek Carr, who is, unfortunately, for the Raiders, the team’s leading rusher right now with 57 yards. And Oakland will go in fairly banged up with WR Rod Streater (hip), RB Maurice Jones-Drew (hand), LB Nick Roach (concussion) and T Mike McCants (knee) all listed as day-to-day early on in the week. And the long trip cross country and the early start time won’t help Oakland either with the game kicking off at 1 p.m. in the Eastern Time zones—10 a.m. Pacific Time, a very early start for bodies acclimated to the West coast. Another advantage for the Patriots. This one could get ugly.