Transcription

1 Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal Massimiliano Serati, Matteo Manera and Michele Plotegher NOTA DI LAVORO JANUARY 2008 IEM International Energy Markets Massimiliano Serati, Institute of Economics, Cattaneo University LIUC, Castellanza Matteo Manera, Department of Statistics, University of Milan-Bicocca, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan Michele Plotegher, Eni This paper can be downloaded without charge at: The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro Series Index: Social Science Research Network Electronic Paper Collection: The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the position of Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Corso Magenta, 63, Milano (I), web site:

2 Modeling Electricity Prices: From the State of the Art to a Draft of a New Proposal Summary In the last decades a liberalization of the electric market has started; prices are now determined on the basis of contracts on regular markets and their behaviour is mainly driven by usual supply and demand forces. A large body of literature has been developed in order to analyze and forecast their evolution: it includes works with different aims and methodologies depending on the temporal horizon being studied. In this survey we depict the actual state of the art focusing only on the recent papers oriented to the determination of trends in electricity spot prices and to the forecast of these prices in the short run. Structural methods of analysis, which result appropriate for the determination of forward and future values are left behind. Studies have been divided into three broad classes: Autoregressive models, Regime switching models, Volatility models. Six fundamental points arise: the peculiarities of electricity market, the complex statistical properties of prices, the lack of economic foundations of statistical models used for price analysis, the primacy of uniequational approaches, the crucial role played by demand and supply in prices determination, the lack of clearcut evidence in favour of a specific framework of analysis. To take into account the previous stylized issues, we propose the adoption of a methodological framework not yet used to model and forecast electricity prices: a time varying parameters Dynamic Factor Model (DFM). Such an eclectic approach, introduced in the late 70s for macroeconomic analysis, enables the identification of the unobservable dynamics of demand and supply driving electricity prices, the coexistence of short term and long term determinants, the creation of forecasts on future trends. Moreover, we have the possibility of simulating the impact that mismatches between demand and supply have over the price variable. This way it is possible to evaluate whether congestions in the network (eventually leading black out phenomena) trigger price reactions that can be considered as warning mechanisms. Keywords: Electricity Spot Prices, Autoregressive Models, GARCH Models, Regime Switching Models, Dynamic Factor Models JEL Classification: C2, C3, Q4 This paper is part of the project MANMADE, Diagnosing vulnerability, emergent phenomena and volatility in man-made networks, which has been co-funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme ( ). Address for correspondence: Matteo Manera Department of Statistics University of Milano-Bicocca Via Bicocca degli Arcimboldi, 28 Building U7 - Office Milano Italy Phone: Fax:

3 1. Introduction. Some stylized facts on the electric market and the electricity prices In the last decades, in order to improve efficiency and reduce electricity prices, following numerous European directives, a progressive liberalization of the electric market has started. This process, which is quite slow due to economies of scale, entry barriers and very high fixed costs faced by those who intend to operate in the energy markets, is in continuous development in some countries, whereas it is already completed in others. Electricity prices will then be determined on the basis of contracts on regular markets, where there is no possibility for arbitrage. In these markets supply will increase or decrease to meet the demand, whose curve results in being inelastic, therefore not much sensitive to price variations. The large body of literature on electricity prices includes studies with different aims and methodologies depending on the temporal horizon being studied. In the long run the study of the behaviour of electricity spot prices is important for profitability analysis and for power planning, whereas in the medium run it is typically used to obtain a forecast distribution in order to price derivative contracts. The evaluation of derivatives is made on the basis of spot prices, meaning that the price is determined by the market. In this survey we concentrate on those studies whose focus is the determination of trends in electricity spot prices and the forecast of these prices within the short run (day/week-ahead). Electricity is a particular commodity, characterised by a high variability; this is mainly due to the fact that electric energy cannot be stored, unless through costly and economically unsustainable methods. Only water reserves can be considered as a substitute method to manage the creation of electricity. From the results of numerous studies it does emerge that in Scandinavian countries or in the United States, in which these reserves are abundant, electricity prices show lower peaks due to the possibility of greater flexibility in the creation phase. Therefore, electricity has to be considered as an instantaneous consumption good. A second element capable of influencing prices is the fact that transmission networks are never perfect. Price variation among the different areas occur due to transmission, maintenance and plant costs. Possible overloads and potential faults or technical errors, that could in extreme cases lead to the system blackout, must then be considered in addition to these network problems. 3

4 In such a complex framework, the link between price and consumption is extremely difficult to analyse. Consumption, although having a clearly less volatile trend compared to spot prices, presents the same cyclical behaviour. We can therefore state that demand elasticity is very low, but prices are strongly influenced by the level of consumption. High levels of consumption are in fact the determinant of peaks in prices. The increase in demand determines the use of more expensive energetic resources in the production of electricity. In other words, the growth of consumption and therefore of volumes to be produced increases the marginal costs of production, which will rise exponentially depending on the use of nuclear, hydrogen, coal, oil or gas (see Figure 1). Figure 1. Marginal costs of production Price cyclicity and electricity demand represent a complex issue. First of all, electric markets exhibit three different types of seasonality. The first is linked to the greater use of artificial light and heating in the winter, and to the growing use of air conditioning in the summer. The second type of seasonality is weekly and is due to the changes in consumption among weekdays and weekends. Finally, we observe an intra-daily periodicity, which refers to variations between day and night and during the different stages of the day, in which generally we can identify two hot spots. Moreover, it is crucial to take into account that habits and climate conditions change among different countries. Seasonality needs therefore to be continuously focused on each market that has to be analysed. Furthermore, there are other relevant factors of distortion such as extreme temperatures, environmental disasters, particular social events and technical problems previously mentioned, as for example faults in generators. The combination of the characteristics of the electricity market and the shift from regulated prices to market-determined prices has resulted in a significant increase of electricity price volatility, 4

5 exemplified by occasional spikes. In fact, electricity spot prices show an extremely high daily average volatility, which varies between 10% and 50%, depending on the markets considered and on price levels, whereas oil and gas volatilities are 3% and 5%, respectively. The search of the best method to model and explain the trend of spot prices, in order to insure producers and consumers from sudden increases, has become in the last years a very relevant issue for the academic world. However, despite the large number of papers published on this topic, there is no clear empirical evidence supporting a specific theoretical model. The primary goal of this work is to propose a review of the economic literature on empirical electricity spot price analysis. Attention will be drawn on the methodological aspects, mainly economic and statistical, for evaluating the model performance based on estimation/forecast errors of spot prices. Moreover, it is worth noting that the available models are mostly for univariate analysis and that empirical studies mainly concentrate on the Nord Pool, that is the most mature power market in Europe. Because market structures and price dynamics differ widely across regions, our review will devote special attention to the methodologies applied in different markets. Finally, structural methods of analysis, which are most appropriate for the determination of forward and futures prices, will not be considered here. The available studies (see Table 1 for a summary) may be classified in terms of the applied methodology. With this respect, three broad classes emerge: Autoregressive models, such as ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average), ARX (AutoreRressive with exogenous inputs), PAR (Periodic AutoRegressive) Jumps and regime switching models, such as ARJ including jumps with Poisson or Normal distribution, TAR (Threshold AutoRegressive) having a non linear mechanism, which shifts prices from a normal regime (mean reverting) to one with high prices, whose threshold is predetermined, MS (Markov Switching) at two or three regimes, whose threshold is represented by an unobservable random variable. 5

6 Volatility models, such as ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), GARCH (Generalised ARCH), MGARCH (Multivariate GARCH), suitable for describing volatility in a price heteroskedasticity framework (variance changing with time). In this section we briefly describe the basic model to explain electricity spot price behaviour for each class. We start with linear autoregression models (AR), followed by their extensions that allow to incorporate exogenous/fundamental factors (ARX). We introduce the second class, regimeswitching models that, by construction, should be well suited for modeling the nonlinear nature of electricity prices. This class includes threshold autoregression time series (TAR/TARX) and Markov models with a latent regime-switching variable (RS). Finally, since the residuals of the linear models typically exhibit heteroskedasticity, we discuss implementations of ARCH and GARCH models Autoregressive Models In the engineering context, the standard model that takes into account the random nature and time correlations of the phenomenon under study is the autoregressive moving average ( ARMA) model. It is composed of two parts: the autoregressive component and the moving average one. The autoregressive (AR) model of order p can be written as ( p) AR and is defined as P t = 0 + α1pt α t p Pt p α + ε t where Pt is a time series of electricity price, α 0 is a constant and ε t are the error term, generally assumed to be independent identically-distributed random variables (i.i.d.) sampled from a normal 6

7 ( 0, σ ) distribution ε E t = t. The parameters α 1, α 2,..., α p 2 2 N and ( ε ) 0, Var( ε ) = σ P t are called the AR coefficients. The name autoregressive comes from the fact that is regressed on its lagged values. The MA models represent time series that are generated by passing the white noise through a non recursive linear filter.the notation MA( q) refers to the moving average model of order q Pt = ε + θ ε θ ε t 1 t 1 q t q A model which depends only on the previous values of itself is called an autoregressive model AR while a model which depends only on the innovation term is called a moving average model MA, and of course a model based on both past values and innovation values is an autoregressive moving average model ( ARMA). The notation ARMA ( p, q terms. In fact this model contains the ) refers to the model with p autoregressive terms and q moving average AR ( p) and MA( q) models, P p εt = α + α P + θ ε + t 0 i t i i t i i= 1 i= 1 q These assumptions may be weakened but doing so will change the properties of the model. To accurately capture the relationship between prices and loads or weather variables, an ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) model can be used. The notation ( ) ARMAX p, q,b refers to the model with p autoregressive terms, q moving average terms and b exogenous inputs terms. This model contains the AR ( p) and MA( q) combination of the last b terms of a known and external time series. It is given by X t models and a linear 7

8 P t p q b = i Pt i + θ i ε t i + i= 1 i= 1 i= 1 α η X + ε i t b t A number of variations on ARMA models are commonly used in econometrics, when the series are integrated or exhibit seasonalities. If multiple time series are used then the can be thought of as a vector and a VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) model may be appropriate. PAR (periodic autoregressive moving average) model is used in a multivariate context with the peresence of seasonality in the data. P t 1.2. Jumps and Regime-Switching Models The spiky character of spot electricity prices suggests that there exists a nonlinear switching mechanism between normal and high-price states or regimes. Two broad classes of these models can be distinguished: those where the regime can be determined by an observable variable and those where the regime is determined by an unobservable, latent variable. The simplest model of the first class is the Threshold Autoregressive model that the regime is specified by the value of an observable variable recorded 24 hour before v t = Pt d, relative to a threshold value T, first determined by assumption or by multi-step optimization procedure v t (TAR ), which assumes, generally equal to the price Pt Pt = = p i= 1 p i= 1 φ P i t i δ P i t i + ε, t + ε, t vt > T v < T t 8

9 To simplify the exposition, we have specified a two-regime model only, however, a generalization to multiregime models is straightforward. It is also possible to include exogenous variables ( TARX ) or taking to consideration more sophisticate process. Given that we can not be certain that a particular regime or jump has occurred at a particular point in time, we can only assign or estimate the probability of its occurrence. Considering a meanreverting model, that is in fact an autoregressive process of order 1, the most obvious approach is the addition of a stochastic jump process to the mean reverting process ( ARJ ). The most common specifications for the jump are the normal distribution and a compound normal process. In the latter case, the jumps J are each the sum of independently and identically distributed normals Z. The t Poisson arrival process for the compound jumps can produce strongly right-skewed jumps. t 2 ( μσ, Z) n t Zt N Pt = εt + α1pt 1+ Zt with i= 0 nt Poisson ( λ ) When we let the arrival intensity of the Poisson jumps approach zero, and its multiplication with the expected jump size approach a constant we observe that this model nests a model with normally distributed jumps. Rewriting this in a notation that splits it up in a normal process (when there are no jumps) and a spike process (when there is at least one jump), we find that the first state occurs with probability q = ( λ ) q S = 1 exp( λ ) ( RS ) M exp 1, the second with probability 1. When using this method we consider the jump arrival process as constant through time, whereas in electricity markets we typically observe alternating periods of high and low jump frequency; in fact power prices are time-dependent. The requirement of stochastic jump arrival probabilities directly leads to regime switching models as natural candidates. In the Markov regime-switching (or simply regime-switching) models, the regime is determined by an unobservable latent variable. The basic following simple specification: ( RS) model has the 9

10 R P t t = P t R t where is a latent variable representing the regime of the process in time period t. The price R processes P t, being linked to each of the regimes R, are assumed to be independent from each t other. The distinguishing characteristic is that this latent regime variable is not imposed ex ante like the probability of jump, but stochastically depends on previously realized price levels. ( ARJ ) t Regime M : Pt = α2pt 1+ εt, nt + 1 Z N Regime S: Pt = α2pt 1 + Zt, i + εt, with i= 1 nt Poisson 1 qs qs Transition matrix Q : qm 1 qm 2 ( μ, σ ) t S S ( λ ) 1 At any point in time the price process is either in regime M (mean reverting) or in regime S (spike). Contrarily to a stochastic jump model, the probability that a certain state prevails is not constant, but dependent on the previous state, a stochastic entity. The Markov transition matrix Q contains the probabilities q of switching from regime M at time t to regime S at time t + 1. M,S Because of the Markov property, the current state R t at time t depends on the past only through the most recent value R 1 t. In practice, the current regime is not directly observable, but determined through an adaptive probabilistic process using Bayesian inference. More precisely, based on the posterior probabilities of the current regime, we can calculate the prior probability of the next regime being of a certain type. More sophisticated processes can be included in the Markov Switching specification. It is also possible to build a three-regime model that contains a normal mean-reverting regime M, an up regime U and a down regime D, and impose constraint on the transition probability. In this case, with three regimes, the Markov transition matrix is a 3x3 matrix. 10

11 1.3. Volatility Models Electricity spot prices, present various forms of non-linear dynamics, the crucial one being the strong dependence of the variability of the series on its own past. Some nonlinearities of these series are a non constant conditional variance and, generally, they are characterized by the clustering of large shocks or heteroskedasticity. Given an autoregressive model (first class) or a simple regression model, the autoregressive considers the variance of the current error term conditional heteroskedasticity model ARCH ( q) Var 2 ( ε ) = σ t t to be a function of the variances of the previous time period's error terms. Specifically, is assumed that ε t = σ t ut. Now ε t is time dependent and u t is assumed to be independent identically-distributed random variables (i.i.d.) sampled from a normal distribution 2 u t N( 0,1). The time varying series are modeled by σ t σ 2 t = β + 0 p i= 1 β ε i 2 t i If an autoregressive moving average model ( ARMA ) is assumed for the error variance, the model is a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model GARCH ( p, q), where p is the 2 2 order of the GARCH terms σ and q is the order of the ARCH terms ε. The model is given by σ 2 t q p = + 2 β + 0 β i ε t i i= 1 i= 1 γ i σ 2 t i Although the existence of large numbers of GARCH specifications like exponential GARCH, integrated GARCH, quadratic GARCH, GARCH in mean, threshold GARCH and so on, GARCH ( 1, is the most used volatility model for power spot prices. GARCH model are also used 1) in multivariate context MGARCH to understand if the volatility of a market leading the volatility of other markets. 11

14 2. Modelling Electricity Spot Prices. What Does the Literature Say? In the following we will summarize the main features of the literature that addresses the issue of evaluating the performance of different models and methodologies applied to the analysis of spot electricity prices and their short run forecasting. Since our goal is to provide a picture of the current state of the art we will illustrate in detail only a selection of recent papers that appear to be very interesting both from the methodological point of view and also in terms of the empirical evidence they provide. On the basis of the evidence coming from the survey we propose in the next section the adoption of a new methodological framework for electricity prices analysis and forecasting. We refer to the Dynamic Factor Models; they have been introduced in the late 70s for macroeconomic analysis but they represent a new approach to modelling the electricity market in the sense that they never have been used for this purpose General Contributions An overview of all the candidate models suitable to describe the features of the electricity market is provided by Misiorek, Trueck, and Weron (2006). The aim of their paper is to assess the short-term point and interval forecasting performance of different time series models of the electricity spot market during normal (calm), as well as extremely volatile, periods. Since the authors want to mimic a typical practitioner praxis, adopting a truly real time forecasting approach, they choose as test ground the California power market, that offers freely accessible high quality electricity price and load data; moreover this is a quite interesting market, since it provides the ideal framework for studying those behaviours typically leading to a market crash (really occurred in winter 2000/2001). After reviewing the most diffuse time series based modeling approaches for electricity spot prices the authors specify a set of competitor models: AR/ARX: linear autoregression models eventually incorporating (X components) exogenous/fundamental factors (the system load in particular), 14

15 AR/ARX-GARCH, TAR/TARX (non-linear, threshold regime-switching) Markov models with a latent regime-switching variable The time series of hourly system prices, system-wide loads and day-ahead load forecasts was constructed using data obtained from the UCEI institute and the California independent system operator CAISO, for the calibration period July 5, 1999 April 2, 2000; the period April 3 December 3, 2000 was used for out-of sample testing. The empirical evidence is again in favour of regime-switching models, but in their simpler form: TAR/TARX models outperform their linear counterparts, both in point and interval forecasting, but simple ARX models reveal a quite encouraging forecasting performance. On the other side, an additional GARCH component generally decreases point forecasting efficiency so that GARCHinspired specifications do not outperform the relatively simple ARX approach. The primacy of TARX models emerges both within the point forecasts framework and in the interval forecasting one; in the latter the non-linear Markov regime-switching model systematically underestimated the range of possible next-day electricity prices and yielded the worst results of all tested models. In the paper by De Jong (2006) the focus is mainly on the existence of typical occasional spikes that are the main source of the large volatility affecting the electricity spot prices and because of their importance are usually incorporated into appropriate pricing, portfolio, and risk management models. Energy markets seem to suffer a level of uncertainty far larger than other commodity markets. Being electricity not storable, spot prices ultimately depend on local and temporal supply and demand conditions. In fact, on one side, large industrial customers usually can not vary their power demand in response to market prices, whereas on the other most power plants can gear up or gear down generation only with a significant time lag. This low level of flexibility is the main determinant of occasional extreme price spikes, which revert within hours or days to a their standard level. In the light of this, the investigation on the nature of power spikes in a number of different markets becomes a relevant line of research. 15

16 In particular the author makes a comparison among different time-series models aimed at capturing the dynamics of these disruptive spot prices: standard mean reverting structure, which is a simple AR(1) model; stochastic Poisson jumps model; Markov switching regime model with stochastic Poisson jumps; Markov switching model with three regimes: Normal -mean reverting, Up and Down; Markov switching regime model with independent spikes; threshold model. All these models have in common that the spot price (actually a day-ahead price), P t, is divided into a predictable component, f t, and a stochastic component, X t : p t = ln P t = f t + X t. The first component, f t, accounts for predictable regularities, and typically is a deterministic function of time. The stochastic second component X t, that is the log spot price from which predictable trends have been removed, is the more interesting and triggers the most of the specification effort by the author. All the regime switching models above are used to evaluate whether the price spikes should be treated as abnormal and independent deviations from the normal price dynamics or whether they form an integral part of the price process. The empirical application is referred to six day-ahead markets in Europe (Nord Pool Elspot- Scandinavia, EEX-Germany, APX-Netherlands, Powernext-France, EXAA-Austria, OMEL-Spain) and two in the US (PJM-US and New England Pool-US). As for the empirical evidence the paper concludes that, although they have a limited parameterization, regime-switching models are able to capture the price dynamics significantly better than a GARCH(1,1) model, a jump-model and a threshold model in the eight different markets. 16

17 The regime-switching model that strongly looks like a traditional jump model yields the best fit on average, but it is worth noting that there exist significant differences among the markets probably due to the different shares of hydro-power in the total supply stack: in fact hydro-power serves as an indirect means to store electricity, which has a dampening effect on spikes Autoregressive Models Guthrie and Videbeck (2002) develop a new approach to understanding the behavior of high frequency electricity spot prices. Their approach treats electricity delivered at different times of the day as different commodities, while recognizing that these commodities may be traded on a small number of intra-day markets. They first present a detailed analysis of the high frequency dynamics of prices at a key New Zealand node. The analysis, which includes the use of a periodic autoregression model, suggests to consider electricity as multiple commodities, and also reveals intrinsic correlation properties that indicate the existence of distinct intra-day markets. Conventional models cannot adequately capture properties that have important implications for derivative pricing and real options analysis. Guthrie and Videbeck therefore extend the literature by introducing a state-space model of high frequency spot prices that preserves this intra-day market structure. The authors used a periodic autoregression model which impacts on both derivative pricing and real options analysis. The periodic autoregression model is used to value electricity derivatives with payoffs depending on high frequency spot price dynamics. The PAR s principal limitation is the large number of parameters which need to be estimated. Rather than develop the PAR model, they pursued an alternative approach involving a state-space model. This is easily motivated from the intra-day market structure, and has the additional advantage of requiring a relatively small number of parameters to be estimated. It divides the day into distinct periods based on the correlation structure. The analysis revealed that daily time series of the prices of these commodities exhibit heterogeneous behavior. Further, the presence of remarkable structure suggests the existence of a small number of intra-day spot markets for electricity. The data suggest also that the structure of intra-day markets varies between weeks and weekends, and across seasons. Future research will reveal whether these patterns are stable over time and the extent to which they appear in other electricity spot markets. The authors ignored this seasonality in intra-day market 17

18 structure when estimating the state-space model in order to keep their model to manageable proportions. If more efficient means of estimating the state-space model can be found, then this extra-level of detail can be incorporated into dynamic models of spot prices. The contribution by Popova (2004) focuses on the evolution of electricity prices in deregulated market. The author formulates a model that takes into account the spatial features of a network of a market. The model is applied to equilibrium electricity spot prices of the PJM market. This paper addresses the issue of modelling spot prices, because spot prices are one of the key factors in strategic planning and decision support systems of a majority of market players, and are the underlying instrument of a number of electric power derivatives. The goal of the paper is to propose a model for electricity spot price dynamics that takes into account the key characteristics of electricity price formation in the PJM interconnection such as seasonality, weather-dependence, trading in the day-ahead market and spatial attributes of the distribution system. The novelty of this approach is the utilization of the spatial feature of the PJM market which is divided into twelve transmission zones. The PJM interconnection s pricing mechanism and price data availability is designed in such a way as to allow considering each zone as a hypothetical generating unit. Both forward and spot prices are reported for each hypothetical producer hourly. This facilitates a high-frequency empirical analysis taking into account spatial characteristics of the interconnection. Consequently, the author assumes that the electricity spot price can be represented as a function of its lagged values, the forward price, weather conditions, and demand, which is equal to load. Popova assumes also that there is a unique price generating process, but the disturbances are spatially correlated due to the grid topology and the omitted variables problem. An empirical analysis indicates that the problem of unobserved spatial correlation in the network can be modelled by the Spatial Error providing an additional insight about the spot electricity prices in this market. The spatial aspect plays an essential role in electricity prices formation and ignoring the spatial characteristics and the grid topology may cause biased results and vague conclusions. The problem of unobserved spatial correlation in the grid can be modelled by the SEM. Strong spatial correlation is supported by the estimating results as well as by the testing procedure. Though the estimation of the spatial parameter is of little interest, it helps to bring out consistent estimates of explanatory variables. Therefore, the more robust estimates and inference can be drawn. Despite its attractiveness, the Spatial Error Model is not the only method available to model the 18

19 electricity prices and derivatives. Future of electricity price modelling may be oriented towards models incorporating finer components and an additional information about the network topology, weather conditions and connections between the PJM zones. The additional information can be utilized either by spatial approach or by other modelling methods. Weron and Misiorek (2006) assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in the Nord Pool electricity spot market. Four five-week periods were selected, which roughly correspond to the months of February, May, August and November. Given this choice, the authors are able to evaluate the performance of the models for all seasons of the year and the large out-ofsample interval allows for a more thorough analysis of the forecasting results when compared to the investigations which are typically used in the literature considering single-week test samples. The models for electricity spot prices considered by the authors include linear and non-linear autoregressive time series with and without additional fundamental variables. The only exogenous information is the air temperature, since generally this is the most influential weather variable on electricity prices. The models were tested on a time series of hourly system prices and temperatures from the Nordic power market. Weron and Misiorek evaluate the accuracy of both point and interval predictions; the latter are specifically important for risk management purposes, where one is more interested in predicting intervals for future price movements than simply point estimates. The authors investigate the quality of the predictions, both in terms of the Mean Weekly Error (for point forecasts) and in terms of the nominal coverage of the models with respect to the true coverage (for interval predictions). They find evidence that non-linear models outperform their linear counterparts and that the interval forecasts of all models are overestimated in the relatively non-volatile periods. During relatively calm, periods the AR and spike pre-processed AR (p-ar) models generally yielded better point forecasts than their competitors, with p-ar being slightly better than the pure AR specification. However, during volatile weeks of May 2004 for example, the TAR model was the best. Regarding interval forecasts, they found that the estimated 90% and especially the 99% confidence intervals (CI) of the linear models are clearly too narrow for the volatile period. Better results are obtained for the TAR model, especially for the 90% CI. However, it predicts slightly too narrow 99% intervals and significantly too wide 50% intervals. 19

20 Moreover, the authors found that during relatively calm periods for all models almost all confidence intervals include the actual market clearing price (MCP) value. This is especially true for the 90% and 99% intervals, but even for the 50% CIs deviations from the actual MCP are rarely large enough to exclude the price from the interval. This is in contrast to the results for the California power market, where the TAR model yielded acceptable interval forecasts for the whole test sample. A possible reason for such a behavior could be temporal dependence (or non-whiteness ) in the model residuals. Whether this is true has yet to be investigated. The study by Guthrie and Videbeck (2007) shows that some important properties of electricity spot prices cannot be captured by the statistical models, which are commonly used to model financial asset prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, Guthrie and Videbeck find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The starting point for the analysis is to acknowledge that its nonstorability means that electricity traded at a particular time of the day is a distinct commodity, quite different from electricity traded at different times. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Financial models, which are currently applied to electricity spot prices, are incapable of capturing their behavior. On the contrary, the authors use a periodic autoregression to model prices, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Guthrie and Videbeck illustrate a new approach to modelling electricity prices, the use of periodic autoregressions, because current approaches cannot capture this behavior either. A simple AR process, which ignores the different behavior of prices in different trading periods, can be calibrated to capture the low persistence evident in peak periods, or the greater persistence in off-peak periods, but not both simultaneously. Nor can it capture the reappearance of shocks later in the day when they first appear. The periodic autoregression used in this paper could be used to value electricity derivatives with payoffs depending on high frequency spot price dynamics. The PAR s main limitation, however, is the large number of parameters to be estimated. For example, with halfhourly trading periods each of the 48 equations has 48 slope coefficients, in addition to the 20

International Journal of Business and Management; Vol. 8, No. 21; 2013 ISSN 1833-3850 E-ISSN 1833-8119 Published by Canadian Center of Science and Education Determinants of Electricity Price in Competitive

Calculating Chapter 7 (Chatfield) Monika Turyna & Thomas Hrdina Department of Economics, University of Vienna Summer Term 2009 Terminology An interval forecast consists of an upper and a lower limit between

UNCERTAINTY IN THE ELECTRIC POWER INDUSTRY Methods and Models for Decision Support CHRISTOPH WEBER University of Stuttgart, Institute for Energy Economics and Rational of Use of Energy fyj. Springer Contents

5 General discussion 5.1 Introduction The primary goal of this thesis was to understand how the spatial dependence of consumer attitudes can be modeled, what additional benefits the recovering of spatial

85 Quantifying the Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation By Colin Bermingham* Abstract The substantial increase in the volatility of oil prices over the past six or seven years has provoked considerable comment

Market Risk: FROM VALUE AT RISK TO STRESS TESTING Agenda The Notional Amount Approach Price Sensitivity Measure for Derivatives Weakness of the Greek Measure Define Value at Risk 1 Day to VaR to 10 Day

Introduction to time series analysis Margherita Gerolimetto November 3, 2010 1 What is a time series? A time series is a collection of observations ordered following a parameter that for us is time. Examples

Analysis of Financial Time Series Analysis of Financial Time Series Financial Econometrics RUEY S. TSAY University of Chicago A Wiley-Interscience Publication JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC. This book is printed

An introduction to Value-at-Risk Learning Curve September 2003 Value-at-Risk The introduction of Value-at-Risk (VaR) as an accepted methodology for quantifying market risk is part of the evolution of risk

The University of Chicago, Booth School of Business Business 41202, Spring Quarter 2013, Mr. Ruey S. Tsay Solutions to Final Exam Problem A: (40 points) Answer briefly the following questions. 1. Describe

Chapter 6 Econometrics 6.1 Introduction We re going to use a few tools to characterize the time series properties of macro variables. Today, we will take a relatively atheoretical approach to this task,

Enhancing Business Resilience under Power Shortage: Effective Allocation of Scarce Electricity Based on Power System Failure and CGE Models Yoshio Kajitani *1, Kazuyoshi Nakano 2 and Ayumi Yuyama 1 1Civil

Using simulation to calculate the NPV of a project Marius Holtan Onward Inc. 5/31/2002 Monte Carlo simulation is fast becoming the technology of choice for evaluating and analyzing assets, be it pure financial

The Fair Valuation of Life Insurance Participating Policies: The Mortality Risk Role Massimiliano Politano Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Naples Federico II Via Cinthia, Monte S.Angelo

State Space Time Series Analysis p. 1 State Space Time Series Analysis Siem Jan Koopman http://staff.feweb.vu.nl/koopman Department of Econometrics VU University Amsterdam Tinbergen Institute 2011 State

A Proven Approach to Stress Testing Consumer Loan Portfolios Interthinx, Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. Interthinx is a registered trademark of Verisk Analytics. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

REGIME JUMPS IN ELECTRICITY PRICES RONALD HUISMAN AND RONALD MAHIEU ERIM REPORT SERIES RESEARCH IN MANAGEMENT ERIM Report Series reference number ERS-2001-48-F&A Publication August 2001 Number of pages

Forecasting Methods What is forecasting? Why is forecasting important? How can we evaluate a future demand? How do we make mistakes? Prod - Forecasting Methods Contents. FRAMEWORK OF PLANNING DECISIONS....

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING by Sanzad Siddique, B.S. A Thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School, Marquette University, in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree

Financial System Review December 2007 An Approach to Stress Testing the Canadian Mortgage Portfolio Moez Souissi I n Canada, residential mortgage loans account for close to 47 per cent of the total loan

Forecasting model of electricity demand in the Nordic countries Tone Pedersen 3/19/2014 Abstract A model implemented in order to describe the electricity demand on hourly basis for the Nordic countries.

PROFESSIONAL BRIEFING aestimatio, the ieb international journal of finance, 2011. 3: 02-9 2011 aestimatio, the ieb international journal of finance seasonal causality in the energy commodities Díaz Rodríguez,

Problems with OLS Considering : we assume Y i X i u i E u i 0 E u i or var u i E u i u j 0orcov u i,u j 0 We have seen that we have to make very specific assumptions about u i in order to get OLS estimates

Should we Really Care about Building Business Cycle Coincident Indexes! Alain Hecq University of Maastricht The Netherlands August 2, 2004 Abstract Quite often, the goal of the game when developing new

Sensex Realized Volatility Index Introduction: Volatility modelling has traditionally relied on complex econometric procedures in order to accommodate the inherent latent character of volatility. Realized

Short-term solar energy forecasting for network stability Dependable Systems and Software Saarland University Germany What is this talk about? Photovoltaic energy production is an important part of the

Simultaneous Equation Models As discussed last week, one important form of endogeneity is simultaneity. This arises when one or more of the explanatory variables is jointly determined with the dependent

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON OF INTEREST RATE GUARANTEES IN LIFE INSURANCE J. DAVID CUMMINS, KRISTIAN R. MILTERSEN, AND SVEIN-ARNE PERSSON Abstract. Interest rate guarantees seem to be included in life insurance

Economic Order Quantity and Economic Production Quantity Models for Inventory Management Inventory control is concerned with minimizing the total cost of inventory. In the U.K. the term often used is stock

Mette Aagaard Knudsen, DTU Transport, mak@transport.dtu.dk ELASTICITY OF LONG DISTANCE TRAVELLING ABSTRACT With data from the Danish expenditure survey for 12 years 1996 through 2007, this study analyses

Computing the Electricity Market Equilibrium: Uses of market equilibrium models Ross Baldick Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering The University of Texas at Austin April 2007 Abstract We discuss

Time Series Analysis Univariate and Multivariate Methods SECOND EDITION William W. S. Wei Department of Statistics The Fox School of Business and Management Temple University PEARSON Addison Wesley Boston

Theories of Exchange rate determination INTRODUCTION By definition, the Foreign Exchange Market is a market 1 in which different currencies can be exchanged at a specific rate called the foreign exchange

VI. Real Business Cycles Models Introduction Business cycle research studies the causes and consequences of the recurrent expansions and contractions in aggregate economic activity that occur in most industrialized

Chapter 1 Introduction to Econometrics Econometrics deals with the measurement of economic relationships. It is an integration of economics, mathematical economics and statistics with an objective to provide

Statistics in Retail Finance 1 Overview > So far we have focussed mainly on application scorecards. In this chapter we shall look at behavioural models. We shall cover the following topics:- Behavioural

Chapter Vector autoregressions We begin by taking a look at the data of macroeconomics. A way to summarize the dynamics of macroeconomic data is to make use of vector autoregressions. VAR models have become

Conclusion and Implication V{tÑàxÜ CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATION 8 Contents 8.1 Summary and conclusions 8.2 Implications Having done the selection of macroeconomic variables, forecasting the series and construction

INDIRECT INFERENCE (prepared for: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition) Abstract Indirect inference is a simulation-based method for estimating the parameters of economic models. Its