“The dry spell so far is a concern, though farmers have a sowing window till July 20 in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Gujarat and going up to the first week of August in AP,” said Dr K. R. Kranthi, Director, Central Institute for Cotton Research at Nagpur.

According to him, the rains are required mainly during the 4-5 days between sowing and germination. “Once germination happens, the sapling can manage without rains for 10-15 days by subsisting on the moisture from the soil,” he noted, adding that the next of couple weeks are crucial for the country's rain-fed cotton crop.

The same is the case with oilseeds, especially groundnut — where the area covered till now, at 8.63 lh, is below last year's corresponding 13.46 lh. Gujarat (3.76 lh versus 8.10 lh) and AP (1.24 lh versus 2.91 lh) have both reported declines.

There has been a huge dip, likewise, in Maharashtra's soyabean area, from 8.53 lh to 3.46 lh. In Madhya Pradesh, data are still awaited from the State Government, even as Mr Rajesh Agrawal of the Indore-based Soyabean Processors' Association of India estimated 50 per cent of sowing to have been completed in most of the State, barring the Indore division. “We have time till July 15, after which yields might get affected,” he pointed out.

All this is reflective of how the monsoon has behaved: While the all-India average rainfall has been 11 per cent above ‘normal' in June, it has been well below par in Gujarat (-88 per cent), Saurashtra-Kutch (-74 per cent), Marathwada (-53 per cent), Vidarbha (-18 per cent), Telangana (-43 per cent), Rayalaseema (-25 per cent), coastal AP (-30 per cent) and North Interior Karnataka (-14 per cent).

Rains seen picking up

The somewhat good news is the India Meteorological Department's forecast of rains picking up over Central India from Wednesday. The favourable upper air level conditions generated by a ‘Madden-Julian Oscillation' are seen to bring some life-savings showers to coastal AP, Rayalaseema, Telangana and Vidarbha – though not strong enough to cover the rest of Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka or Gujarat.

Moreover, even this emerging wet spell may not last long in the absence of any depression or low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal. Global models do not indicate the initiation of any such activity in the Bay during the coming week as well as the week to follow. And that may not be really good news.

The revival of monsoon is expected to translate into rains mainly across the west coast, central India and parts of east peninsular India.

This is because there is no support forthcoming from the Bay of Bengal in the form of strong lows or depressions.

But there are indications that a cyclonic circulation may materialise over the head Bay of Bengal and adjoining east coast and Gangetic West Bengal early next week.

RAINS FOR WEST

It may go on to expand into a trough covering the whole of central India and even extending into Gujarat.

Going forward, the trough is seen moving further west, with some rain indicated for south Gujarat, Saurashtra and the Mumbai-Konkan belt.

Meanwhile, the heavy to very heavy rains continued over east India and parts of north-west India until Friday morning and are expected to continue, an update from India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.

A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and coastal Karnataka.

These clouds were also spotted over east-central and southeast Arabian Sea, north and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea, which is an indication of a rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave in operation.

Meanwhile, the land-based seasonal across northwest and southeast India has pulled itself back to the foot hills of Himalayas, indicating the weak phase of the monsoon.

This trough can revert back to its normal position to the south when it gets linked with a ‘low' that forms in the Bay, of which there is no immediate indication.

OFFSHORE TROUGH

An offshore trough continued to run down from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. This is what is preventing the monsoon from going into a classical ‘break phase' - a prolonged intra-seasonal dry phase.

Meanwhile, forecast valid until Monday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim and the North-eastern States.

It would be fairly widespread over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and along the west coast.

Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over the remaining parts of the country outside Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, interior Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh where it would be isolated.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Coastal Karnataka , at many places over Kerala and South interior Karnataka and at a few places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh,Tamil Nadu and North Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Rayalaseema, Telangana and Lakshadweep.