For the Week of December 12

The Trump rally continues as the Dow and the S&P 500 set new all-time records, both rising by better than 3% for the week. The rally in the US spilled over to Europe which had its best run-up since February, rising Monday through Thursday by 4.35% before retreating sharply lower on Friday. The US small-cap index was up by 5.66% for the week, indicating increased risk appetite in the market! With increased confidence in the rally, volatility, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), moved sharply lower by 16.78% to 11.75.

Image 1: VIX November 5th to December 9th — Source: Google Finance
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Oil prices gyrated this week and ended mostly flat as oil traders continue to speculate over the outcome of a meeting set to further curb oil production between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Vienna this weekend. West Texas Intermediate crude futures ended the week at $51.48 a barrel.

Image 2: USO November 5th to December 9th – Source: Google Finance
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Number of Consecutive Positive Days Indicates Rally Will Continue

As the S&P closed its 7th consecutive up day, investors contemplate if the rally is set to continue into year-end.
On Monday, if the S&P ends up higher again, it will mark its 8th consecutive up day and to that end, I wanted to check how often in the past we’ve experienced eight or more consecutive up days. This is a rather simple task for Lucena’s Event Analyzer, as we can employ one of our technical indicators called “Consecutive Up Days.” Interestingly, this scenario occurred only 17 times since 2004, and most recently on 12/29/2014.

Image 3: Consecutive up days event study definition. Inspecting the projected 21-day return (one calendar month) following eight or more consecutive up days for the S&P.

Another interesting find was that 3/17/2010 was the date in which the S&P marked its highest sequential up-trend, 14 consecutive up days.

Image 4: February through April 2010 exhibited a protracted upwards momentum for the S&P during which the S&P was up 14 consecutive days.
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Compiling all the occurrences in which the S&P marked eight or more consecutive up days presents a compelling statistical consistency of an imminent short-lived profit taking followed by a renewed rally for another month or so.

The following image represents the price action of the S&P following eight or more consecutive up days.
As can be seen, there is a short drop following the uptrend sequence, followed by a renewed S&P rally for approximately an additional 2% total return within a one-month forward timeframe. Furthermore, the machine recommends a 16-trading-day hold based on risk/return scoring. You can see that on day 16 (marked by a tool tip) the price action dispersion, as measured by the standard deviation cone, is at its most narrow indicating higher confidence in the projected return.

Image 5: Inspecting the projected 21-day return (one calendar month) following eight or more consecutive up days for the S&P, showing an average total return of 1.92% within 21 trading days (or one calendar month).
At day 16 following the event, the price to risk ratio is most favorable based on the 1st standard deviation indicating, returns ranging from 0.04% to 3.22%.

Conclusion

If the S&P ends up higher on Monday, although not statistically significant, eight successive price gains for the S&P will drive a compelling case to stay in the market for at least 16 additional days, even though a temporary retraction due to profit taking may be imminent.

Forecasting the Top 10 Positions in the S&P

Lucena’s Forecaster uses a predetermined set of ten factors that are selected from a large set of over 450. Self-adjusting to the most recent data, we apply a genetic algorithm (GA) process that runs over the weekend to identify the most predictive set of factors based on which our price forecasts are assessed. These factors (together called a “model”) are used to forecast the price and its corresponding confidence score of every stock in the S&P. Our machine-learning algorithm travels back in time over a look-back period (or a training period) and searches for historical states in which the underlying equities were similar to their current state. By assessing how prices moved forward in the past, we anticipate their projected price change and forecast their volatility.

The charts below represent the new model and the top 10 positions assessed by Lucena’s Price Forecaster.

Image 6: Default model for the coming week.

The top-ten forecast chart below delineates the ten positions in the S&P with the highest projected market- relative return combined with their highest confidence score.

Image 7: Forecasting the top 10 position in the SPY for the coming week.
The yellow stars (0 stars meaning poorest and 5 stars meaning strongest) represent the confidence score based on the forecasted volatility, while the blue stars represent backtest scoring as to how successful the machine was in forecasting the underlying asset over the lookback period — in our case, the last 3 months.

To view a brief video of all the major functions of QuantDesk, please click on the following link:

The table below delineates a trailing 12-month performance and a YTD comparison between the two model strategies we cover in this newsletter (BlackDog and Tiebreaker), as well as the two ETFs representing the major US indexes (the DOW and the S&P).

For those of you unfamiliar with BlackDog and Tiebreaker, here is a brief overview: BlackDog and Tiebreaker are two out of an assortment of model strategies that we offer our clients. Our team of quants is constantly on the hunt for innovative investment ideas. Lucena’s model portfolios are a byproduct of some of our best research, packaged into consumable model-portfolios. The performance stats and charts presented here are a reflection of paper traded portfolios on our platform, QuantDesk®. Actual performance of our clients’ portfolios may vary as it is subject to slippage and the manager’s discretionary implementation. We will be happy to facilitate an introduction with one of our clients for those of you interested in reviewing live brokerage accounts that track our model portfolios.

Tiebreaker:
Tiebreaker is an actively managed long/short equity strategy. It invests in equities from the S&P 500 and Russell 1000 and is rebalanced weekly using Lucena’s Forecaster, Optimizer and Hedger. Tiebreaker splits its cash evenly between its core and hedge holdings, and its hedge positions consist of long and short equities. Tiebreaker has been able to avoid major market drawdowns while still taking full advantage of subsequent run-ups. Tiebreaker is able to adjust its long/short exposure based on idiosyncratic volatility and risk. Lucena’s Hedge Finder is primarily responsible for driving this long/short exposure tilt.

Tiebreaker Live Interactive Brokers Portfolio Performance
Live performance reports are taken from an interactive brokers account which attempts to follow Tiebreaker’s model closely with the following potential differences:

Transactions Fees – Performance is net of transactions fees.

Management Fees – Performance is net of management fees.

Manager’s discretion – Manager can use own discretion as to final trade executions. For example, employing VWAP (volume weighted average price) and/or manually monitoring exit during stop loss and target gain.

Hard to borrow and restricted stocks – Hard to borrow, and restricted stocks may be substituted with highly correlated alternatives.

Tiebreaker Model Portfolio Performance Calculation Methodology
Tiebreaker’s model portfolio’s performance is a paper trading simulation and it assumes opening account balance of $1,000,000 cash. Tiebreaker started to paper trade on April 28, 2014 as a cash neutral and Bata neutral strategy. However, it was substantially modified to its current dynamic mode on 9/1/2014. Trade execution and return figures assume positions are opened at the 11:00AM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded and unless a stop is triggered, the positions are closed at the 4:00PM EST price quoted by the primary exchange on which the security is traded. In the case of a stop loss, a trailing 5% stop loss is imposed and is measured from the intra-week high (in the case of longs) and low (in the case of shorts). If the stop loss was triggered, an exit from the position 5% below, in the case of longs, and 5% above, in the case of shorts. Tiebreaker assesses the price at which the position is exited with the following modification: prior to March 1st, 2016, at times but not at all times, if, in consultation with a client executing the strategy, it is found that the client received a less favorable price in closing out a position when a stop loss is triggered, the less favorable price is used in determining the exit price. Since March 1st, 2016, all trades are conducted automatically with no modifications based on the guidelines outlined herein. No manual modifications have been made to the gain stop prices. In instances where a position gaps through the trigger price, the initial open gapped trading price is utilized. Transaction costs are calculated as the larger of 6.95 per trade or $0.0035 * number of shares trades.

BlackDog:
BlackDog is a paper trading simulation of a tactical asset allocation strategy that utilizes highly liquid ETFs of large cap and fixed income instruments. The portfolio is adjusted approximately once per month based on Lucena’s Optimizer in conjunction with Lucena’s macroeconomic ensemble voting model. Due to BlackDog’s low volatility (half the market in backtesting) we leveraged it 2X. By exposing twice its original cash assets, we take full advantage of its potential returns while maintaining market-relative low volatility and risk. As evidenced by the chart below, BlackDog 2X is substantially ahead of its benchmark (S&P 500).

In the past year, we covered QuantDesk’s Forecaster, Back-tester, Optimizer, Hedger and our Event Study. In future briefings, we will keep you up-to-date on how our live portfolios are executing. We will also showcase new technologies and capabilities that we intend to deploy and make available through our premium strategies and QuantDesk® our flagship cloud-based software.
My hope is that those of you who will be following us closely will gain a good understanding of Machine Learning techniques in statistical forecasting and will gain expertise in our suite of offerings and services.

Back Tester – Assess an investment strategy through a historical test drive before risking capital

Your comments and questions are important to us and help to drive the content of this weekly briefing. I encourage you to continue to send us your feedback, your portfolios for analysis, or any questions you wish for us to showcase in future briefings.
Send your emails to: info@lucenaresearch.com and we will do our best to address each email received.

Please remember: This sample portfolio and the content delivered in this newsletter are for educational purposes only and NOT as the basis for one’s investment strategy. Beyond discounting market impact and not counting transaction costs, there are additional factors that can impact success. Hence, additional professional due diligence and investors’ insights should be considered prior to risking capital.

For those of you who are interested in the spreadsheet with all historical forecasts and results, please email me directly and I will gladly send you the data.

We employ Machine Learning technology to help our customers exploit market opportunities with precision and scientifically validate their investment strategies before risking capital.

Disclaimer Pertaining to Content Delivered & Investment Advice

This information has been prepared by Lucena Research Inc. and is intended for informational purposes only. This information should not be construed as investment, legal and/or tax advice. Additionally, this content is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any investment product or service.

Please note: Lucena is a technology company and not a certified investment advisor. Do not take the opinions expressed explicitly or implicitly in this communication as investment advice. The opinions expressed are of the author and are based on statistical forecasting based on historical data analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future success. In addition, the assumptions and the historical data based on which an opinion is made could be faulty. All results and analyses expressed are hypothetical and are NOT guaranteed. All Trading involves substantial risk. Leverage Trading has large potential reward but also large potential risk. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. If you are neither a registered nor a certified investment professional this information is not intended for you. Please consult a registered or a certified investment advisor before risking any capital.