Tropical Storm Alex's Yucatan Landfall

This Animated loop shows the development of Alex's eye. The page for Belize's radar is here.

The 500AM EDT forecast is a bit different than the previous forecast. Essentially, it looks like the area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken due to a trough over the eastern US. This will weaken the steering currents and slow's Alex's motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The reduced storm motion will give Alex more time to intensify in a a warm SST/weak shear environment. The current forecast calls for Alex to become a category 2 storm before making landfall north of Tampico, MX late Wed. night/early Thursday morning.

The $64,000 question is "Will the ridge continue to weaken, allowing Alex to move north and continue intensification?" The 12Z global model runs will have more accurate forecasts than the the 6Z runs thanks to the presence of radiosonde data, so hopefully they'll provide an answer. It's still my opinion that Alex will not directly impact the oil spill recovery efforts, but I can't say that the chances of it doing so are getting smaller now.

This is Dr. Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff during the late shift. Tropical Storm Alex is currently moving over the Yucatan peninsula. Alex's intensity has dropped to 50 knots in the latest advisory with further weakening expected as the storm moves over land. After Alex moves into the Gulf of Mexico, intensification is expected because of warm sea-surface temperatures and weak vertical wind shear. An area of high pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will guide Alex into a WNW-NW track. The 200AM EDT forecast calls for Alex to intensify into a category 1 hurricane before making landfall just north of Tampico, MX.

In my judgement, the chances of Alex moving northwards and directly interfering with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts are small and getting smaller with time. I agree with Jeff's assessment that Alex will generate 2+ foot swells that would interfere with skimming operations

Currently, the main threat from Alex is flooding due to heavy rains. NHC is forecasting rainfall amounts from 4 to 8 inches with higher amounts over mountainous terrain, causing flooding and possibly mudslides.

There isn't much storm structure apparent in the reflectivity data, just widespread areas of showers. Data from a nearby PWS shows that the peak windspeed was 43 mph. You can clearly see the circulation move past the station with changes in the wind direction and speed. You can also see when the rainbands passed over the station.

Invest 94LInvest 94L is still out there, but it's not looking healthy. It's currently in an area unfavorable for tropical cyclogenesis and NHC thinks it has a 0% chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Current forecast models have 94L moving northwards and making a pass by Bermuda.

If things don't change significantly, Jeff is thinking about taking Sunday off. However, rest assured that if Alex starts charging towards the US, Jeff or I will put up a new entry. In any event, I'm planning on posting an update sometime late Sunday evening.

Folks always try to second guess NHC in terms of track but they are the best in the business and usually go with the consensus of all the same models we look at (and try to second guess between model runs)....If anything, the safest bet is to focus on the 3 Day NHC track; I pretty much ignore the 5 day track because lots of changes can occur in that time frame but this particular storm seems destined for a MX/TX landfall per the current 3 day NHC track.

Quoting tropicaltank:I remember,during Hugo, Cantori said that when a system becomes powerful,that it may essentially make its own weather.That,with a strong system,it affects the surrounding environment,so that preconceived notions of steering currents etc become less relevant.This increases the inability to predict the track.

Quoting tropicaltank:I remember,during Hugo, Cantori said that when a system becomes powerful,that it may essentially make its own weather.That,with a strong system,it affects the surrounding environment,so that preconceived notions of steering currents etc become less relevant.This increases the inability to predict the track.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:It would be impossible for the wave behind the one we were watching yesterday to be that far west. They have to be the same ones, and they actually are, take a look at the loop.

Yes, the wave with strong mid level rotation is the one we are currently seeing re-firing convection. It should exit the coast later today.

I remember,during Hugo, Cantori said that when a system becomes powerful,that it may essentially make its own weather.That,with a strong system,it affects the surrounding environment,so that preconceived notions of steering currents etc become less relevant.This increases the inability to predict the track.

Also that "donut" of shear is something some people fail to understand....the shear around the storm is created by the storm itself. That donut of shear represents a nearly perfect outflow pattern around the storm. It is becoming slightly squished to the north right now due to an upper trough over the north gulf coast, but that will soon change back to what it was yesterday, a perfect upper anticyclone over the system. The shear around the storm is created by itself and is not hostile.

Quoting Levi32:Alex isn't going to shrink. This will end up being a large storm....initial ramp-up after crossing the Yucatan will always start with a small core, but this will quickly start looking again like the large size that it is.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:It would be impossible for the wave behind the one we were watching yesterday to be that far west. They have to be the same ones, and they actually are, take a look at the loop.

Nope. You take a look at the loop. The swirl we were watching yesterday is long gone over the Sahara.

Quoting CCkid00:thank you Atmo! we actually live in Denham Springs....so not too far from you. we took a bunch of jr. high kids to Camp Living Waters in Robert, a couple of wks. ago....close to Covington. i've watched on here for 6 yrs. interesting sight. i recognize your name. gonna be a long hurricane season.

Well, hi. I know Denham, well.In my teens, I worked at your Mr Gattis on Range, for a while. Lived off O'Neil at the time.

Good afternoon everyone. I am not liking what I'm seeing with this ridge. People along the northern/central Gulf Coast KEEP a VERY close eye on Alex. I personally don't see the current forecasted track panning out.

thank you Atmo! we actually live in Denham Springs....so not too far from you. we took a bunch of jr. high kids to Camp Living Waters in Robert, a couple of wks. ago....close to Covington. i've watched on here for 6 yrs. interesting sight. i recognize your name. gonna be a long hurricane season.