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An Alternative View Alternative, But Not Necessarily Competitive Views Are Useful in Providing Additional Insights to Pakistan’s Energy Challenges. The Main Departures of the Economic Approach Developed Here Incorporate the Following Aspects: The Need to Account for the Fact that Pakistan’s Economic Performance Has Been Cyclical Rather Than Sustained. How Do Energy Availabilities and Production Affect Economic Growth and Vice Versa? How Do Key Interrelationships Between the Various Types of Energy Affect that Sector’s Demand and Supply Over Time? How do Different Oil Price Scenarios Change the Picture for Future Energy Balances?

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Energy and Economy – Relevant Historical Patterns 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s Periods of Rapid Economic Expansion. Other Periods Growth Flat. Reasons to Doubt the Sustainability of the Current Expansion – Lagging Investment, low savings, many structural impediments remain. Overall Energy Use Reflects These Patterns. A Number of Long-Run Stable Relationships Between Energy and the Economy. Both Supply and Demand Exhibit a Number of Stable Complementary and Competitive Patterns Between Different Sources of Energy. Adverse Developments in Electricity -- shift from Hydro Generation to Oil and Coal, Shift in use from Industry to Households. Low Rates of Capital Formation in Energy.

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Energy and The Economy – Empirical Studies Growing Number of Studies Identifying Links Between Pakistani Economy and Energy Use. Energy Use and Economic Growth Interrelated – Energy Expansion Leads to Growth. Impact Varies by Type of Energy. Investment and Infrastructure Lead to Expansion of Energy Output. In Turn, Expanded Energy Production Leads to Further Increases in Investment and Infrastructure. Evidence that Links Between Energy Availability and the Economy May be Strengthening. These Relationships Create and Environment Prone to Vicious and Virtuous Circles of Expansion or Contraction.

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The Macro-Energy Forecasting Model Draws on Previous Empirical Research. Expanded Per Capita GDP Function of Energy Availability and Capital Formation. Statistically, Gas, Coal and Hydro Generation Have Strongest Links to GDP Per Capita. Average World Oil Price Times the Rupee Dollar Exchange Rate Statistically Significant in a Number of Energy Supply/Demand Cases. Links Investment and Infrastructure to Energy Supply. Incorporates Number of Energy Complementarities and Competitive Relationships Between the Various Types of Energy.

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Stage 4: Energy Supply-Demand Balances: Other Models Several Basic Patterns Emerge: Rising World Oil Prices Through Encouraging Expanded Domestic Supplies is a more Conducive Environment for Attaining Energy Balance Than One of Falling Prices. High Growth Does not Necessarily Worsen Energy Balances – In Many Cases High Growth is Consistent with Improved Energy Balances. If Immediate Gains in Energy and Growth are Not Required, Strategies favoring Hydro Power are Generally Superior in Achieving a Long Run Stable Growth Path. These Patterns Suggest that the Links Between Energy and the Economy are Not Simple Linear Functions. Rather their Interrelationship Creates an Environment Conducive to Vicious and Virtuous Circles.

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Generalizations From the Model Results: Possibility of Virtuous Circles

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Generalizations From the Model Results: Possibility of Vicious Circles

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Final Observations The Macro-Energy Forecasts Are Only An Initial Attempt to Model Pakistan’s Energy/Growth Patterns Over Time. While Some Policy Implications Are Apparent – Letting Prices Reflect the True Costs of Energy, Great Caution Should Be Applied. What Takes Place Outside the Energy Sector May Have Just as Important Consequences for the Country’s Energy Picture as those Policies Directly Affecting the Sector.