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Hurricane Joaquin intensifies near Bahamas, East Coast possibly in the path

Hurricane
Joaquin is forecast to intensify as it tracks north out of the Bahamas
and toward the East Coast over the next few days. (NASA)

Hurricane
Joaquin rapidly intensified overnight and is now a Category 1 tracking
west toward the Bahamas. Though there continues to be a high amount of
uncertainty in the forecast, Hurricane Joaquin could track toward the
East Coast this weekend, which is now in the cone of the National
Hurricane Center forecast.At 2 p.m. Wednesday, Hurricane Joaquin
had sustained winds of 85 mph and a central pressure of 968 millibars.
Further intensification is expected over the next three days; the
National Hurricane Center is forecasting Joaquin strengthen into a
Category 3 with winds of 115 mph on Saturday as it tracks north toward
the East Coast, eventually weakening before any potential landfall.

Regardless
of an exact track, moisture associated with Joaquin will get pulled
into an advancing low pressure and almost certainly deliver dangerous
amounts of rain over the eastern U.S., from the Carolinas to Maine.

Joaquin
has the potential to be a very significant storm for the mid-Atlantic
and northeastern states. Heavy rain will be the first threat to the
region on Thursday and Friday. The latest guidance from the National
Weather Service includes an enormous swath of rainfall totals in excess
of 6 inches over the coming week, with as much as 10 inches falling on
the Virginia, Maryland and Delaware coasts.By Saturday, coastal
erosion and storm surge flooding could become a huge problem starting in
the Carolinas and working its way up to New England by Sunday.

The
most recent wave forecast from NOAA shows significant heights higher
than 30 or 40 feet on Sunday — a very ominous scenario. Even if the
storm center remains offshore, or it begins to transition to a
non-tropical cyclone, strong onshore winds will generate a substantial
storm surge flooding along the coast, particularly during the regular
astronomical high tides.

Significant wave heights forecast for Sunday in meters. (NOAA)

Over
the past 24 hours, the vertical wind shear that was keeping Joaquin at
bay has gradually decreased, and the storm was quick to respond. The
peak winds increased from 40 mph on Tuesday morning to 80 mph on
Wednesday morning. The very warm ocean water under it is also
undoubtedly fueling the hurricane. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain favorable for Joaquin to intensify until Saturday, with a
window for rapid intensification now through Friday.Joaquin has
been moving slowly and is forecast to drift to the southwest for another
two days before getting picked up by the trough moving over the East
Coast. At that point Hurricane Joaquin will head north, but there is
great uncertainty in the details of how that will happen.

Some
models suggest Joaquin will turn quickly to the north and then curve
toward the East Coast, while others push the hurricane out into the
Atlantic and away from land.The uncertainty in track forecast right now
cannot be understated, and it is not even represented well by the
official track forecast by the National Hurricane Center. Unfortunately
in this situation, the spread in the forecast models is far greater in
size than the cone of uncertainty in the official forecast.

A selection of deterministic dynamical models (left) and the GFS ensemble (right). (UAlbany and NOAA)

Brian
McNoldy works in cyclone research at the University of Miami’s
world-renowned Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
(RSMAS). His website hosted at RSMAS is also quite popular during
hurricane season.

Angela Fritz is an atmospheric scientist and The Post's deputy weather editor.

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