McGuinty’s fate now in NDP’s hands as party mulls voting against Ontario budget

Dalton Mcguinty’s fate now in NDP's hands as party mulls voting against Ontario budget

Ontario stared uneasily Wednesday at the prospect of a second election in six months, as public-sector unions urged the opposition NDP to seriously consider voting against the minority Liberal government’s budget and its threat of forced wage freezes.

With the Conservatives already vowing to oppose the financial blueprint unveiled a day earlier, the New Democrats now represent the linchpin of Ontario politics, with the power to either defeat the Liberal administration on a budget vote, or assure its continued survival.

Andrea Horwath, the NDP leader, reiterated that she plans to consult with Ontario residents before deciding what to do, but the labour leaders who have traditionally been the party’s staunchest supporters suggested Ms. Horwath’s choice is clear.

“I’m advising the NDP not to support this budget,” said Sid Ryan, president of the Ontario Federation of Labour. “I don’t know how the NDP could support a budget where people on welfare and disability pensions and workers are being asked … to pay all of the deficit.”

As part of a plan to erase the province’s $15.2-billion deficit by 2017, the Liberals indicated in Tuesday’s budget that they would demand a two-year salary freeze from teachers, nurses, civil servants and other public-sector employees — and bring in legislation to mandate the measure if unions do not agree to it.

The document also called for a freeze in public-sector executive pay — though not necessarily their incentive payments — and in total compensation paid to the province’s doctors, as well as changes to public-sector pensions to reduce the cost to taxpayers.

Mr. Ryan said the government should have increased corporate taxes — instead of just promising to put off further planned cuts in those levies — rather than take measures that affect the vulnerable, like freezing welfare rates. “I would love to see an election fought on tax fairness,” he said.

Mr. Ryan called the threat of legislation to prevent wage hikes an interference in free collective bargaining as egregious as the “social contract” of the 1990s NDP government under Bob Rae, whose legislated pay cuts were dubbed “Rae days” and enraged unions.

Fred Hahn, Ontario president of the Canadian Union of Public Employees, was less adamant in his advice to the NDP, noting there is still time to win changes to the budget. If the parts of it that labour considers unacceptable are not modified, however, the party should take a stand, said Mr. Hahn.

“No one should be afraid of an election to defend our future,” he said.

Though the Liberals insist public-sector wages must be corralled to tackle the deficit, unionized private-sector employees in Ontario have done slightly better than their public counterparts in the past two years, earning average annual increases of 1.9%, compared with 1.5% in the public sector, 2.3% in municipalities and 1.7% in the federal public sector, said Al Cairns, a spokesman for the provincial Government Services Ministry. The figures do not include non-unionized employees.

At the legislature, meanwhile, there were signs the Liberals and NDP were at least trying to come to terms.

Ms. Horwath said the NDP wants to see harder caps imposed on executive pay, more investment in home care and more money for job creation. “We have a window of opportunity now to say to them, ‘Do you really want to go back to the polls? Is that what you want?’ ” she said.

Mr. McGuinty said he has told the opposition leaders the Liberals “are open to any additional ideas with respect to how we might improve the budget.”

An election so soon after last October’s vote would clearly cause “a lot of grief” in the province, said Robin Sears, a consultant at the firm Navigator and former senior official in the NDP, including a stint as Mr. Rae’s chief of staff. But he said Ms. Horwath’s promise to consult the electorate was a savvy “political gimmick,” buying some time and allowing her to cite grassroots backing for whatever she decides.

Still, the party is in a difficult position, as some of its wish-list appeared in the budget, such as the freeze on further corporate tax cuts, while its core supporters are clearly upset with the document, said Peter Woolstencroft, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Waterloo.

None of the parties, meanwhile, is really in much financial position to wage another election, with all of them facing deficits in the millions of dollars, he noted.

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