August 20, 2017

"Hong Kong's Political Prisoners" - The Wall Street Journal

The above Op-ed of 17 August 2017 by the Wall Street Journal's Editorial Board may be viewed in the following perspective.

Hong Kong's One Country, Two Systems is enshrined in the Basic Law. This is enacted as China's national law. Under the Basic Law, there are many safeguards for the Two Systems. But there are a few safeguards for the One Country, including Article 23 against subversion, sedition etc. (Even the most democratic countries have such national security legislation.) Because of a massive protest against its enactment, Article 23 has not become law.

After 150 years of British rule, the younger generation have a weak sense of nationhood. They also have a tenuous empathy with China's history, including centuries of foreign humiliation. Most regard themselves as only Hong Kong people, not Chinese nationals. Previously, Hong Kong remained relatively isolated from the Mainland economically and socially. Now, there is a tsunami of Chinese visitors and capital in Hong Kong. This aggravates the sense of erosion of Hong Kong's identity, leading to movements for "self determination" and even "independence".

Absent the protection of Article 23, Beijing is understandably wary. There is also the suspicion of involvement of Western powers in a US-led strategy of China containment. Moreover, relying on Hong Kong's laws, the pan-democrats (some with ties to the US) were emboldened by controlling the over-one-third blocking votes in the legislature. Adding to filibustering tactics, many laws on necessary infrastructure etc have remained bogged down, detracting from Hong Kong's long-term competitiveness.

Universal suffrage was included in the Basic Law as a Chinese initiative. It is not part of the Joint Declaration with Britain handing over Hong Kong. But there are safeguards on how the Chief Executive can be elected under One Man, One vote. These safeguards are NOT democratic. But that's the deal. Naturally, Beijing would not want a Chief Executive elected whom Beijing cannot work with, or even worse, suspected of leading Hong Kong towards separatism. This is not just about Hong Kong, but also implications for Tibet and Xinjiang. What the pan-democrats were demanding under the Universal Suffrage debate amounted to removing or greatly watering down Beijing's safeguards for the One Country embedded in the Basic Law.

Hong Kong should accept the political reality of Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region enjoying a high level of autonomy. But Hong Kong remains an integral part of China. It cannot be allowed to be a base for what can be perceived as subversion of the regime on the Mainland.

Hong Kong should be clever enough to build greater trust with Beijing. The more trust, the more liberal interpretation Beijing is likely to adopt towards Hong Kong under the Basic Law. The converse would also be true. With more mutual trust, there will be much bigger room for One Country, Two Systems to play as China embraces the world. The strategic advantage of this unique formula could well outlast 2047, the date of its supposed expiry.

The Occupy Movement clearly broke the law and caused massive economic and social disruptions, not to mention aggravating a torn society. Hong Kong cannot afford to have its laws publicly violated, even for a democratic cause. (Even the US has to enforce its laws against what may be regarded as social justice, e.g. immigrants, racial violence etc). Hong Kong's young democratic fighters are now sentenced to only short jail terms. This serves to discourage others to break the law as there are many lawful means to advance their cause. That's why Hong Kong is known as a City of Protests.

Still, the Heritage Foundation has voted Hong Kong as the freest economy 23rd consecutive year. The World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (including rule of law) consistently show HK above 90 since 2003, reaching 94.7 (12th position) 2015. The World Economic Forum Global Competitive Report ranks HK 8th in judicial independence, 3rd amongst common law jurisdictions and the only Asian jurisdiction in the top 10. The International Institute for Management Development World Competitive Yearbook 2017 endorses HK as most competitive economy for 2nd year. The HKSAR Passport enjoys visa free access to 158 countries.

Hong Kong used to equate to about 20% of China's GDP. Because China has grown so big, it's now only 3%. But Beijing still wants Hong Kong to succeed, as China's "City on a Hill", to help with China's One Belt, One Road and the Great Bay Area national strategies. And these strategies are likely to last a very long time.