International CommoditiesOverview India’s HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5-mark in June. API crude oil inventories declined by 0.876 mn bbl in the last week. US ISM Manufacturing PMI was at 55.3-level in the previous month. Euro Zone Unemployment Rate fell to 11.6 percent in May. UK’s Manufacturing PMI gained to 57.5-mark in the last month.

BullionGoldSpot gold continued its momentum and traded at highest point in about 11 weeks as clashes in eastern Ukraine and the Middle East boosted safe haven demand for the precious metal. However prices declined by 0.13 and settled at $1325.4/oz.In Ukraine, forces deployed aircraft and artillery against pro-Russian separatists in the east, as Fighting has intensified after Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko declared an end to a 10-day unilateral cease-fire that had failed to stop the violence in the region. However, the rise in U.S. manufacturing new orders to the highest since December is preventing sharp gains for gold.Gold prices have also benefited from news that holdings in the largest gold exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust saw their largest increase in five weeks on Monday. Holdings rose by 5.68 tonnes to 790.70 tonnes.On the MCX, gold prices declined by 0.11 percent and closed at Rs.27746/10gms.

SilverSpot silver prices gained by 0.2 percent in contrast to the decline in bullion prices. Good manufacturing numbers from US as well as China has indicated that industrial activity is gaining momentum in turn supportive for silver prices. In addition, strength in Nickel prices also boosted silver pricesOn the MCX, silver prices rose by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.44298/kg

Outlook Gold SilverOn an intraday basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on escalation of geo-political crisis in Ukraine. The Ukrainian president has ended a cease fire which has led to the escalation of violence in the region. Besides, the investment flow in the SPDR gold trust also indicates positive sentiment for gold.On the contrary, good economic indicators from the US in the recent weeks will ensure that any rally in gold fizzles out at higher levels as optimism in the US economy gains momentum.On the MCX, gold prices are expected to trade on a positive note in line with strength in international markets.

EnergyCrude OilOil prices held declined marginally by 0.2 percent on Tuesday, although manufacturing activity grew in the US and China, the two biggest oil consumers. Manufacturing activity in China, the world's biggest oil importer, grew in June for the first time in six months, according to a private survey. Manufacturing activity in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, grew in June for the 13th-straight month, though the pace of the expansion slowed from May.Oil markets have for weeks been rattled by supply concerns due to the Ukraine crisis, while a takeover of large areas of Iraq by Sunni militants has stoked fears of disruption in exports from OPEC's second-biggest producer. Although oil exports have not been disrupted so far, the geopolitical uncertainty is likely to keep supporting prices in the short term.On the MCX, crude prices declined by 0.6 percent and closed at Rs.6301/bbl

API inventory updateThe API released its weekly inventories report last night at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories declined by 0.876 million barrels for the week ending on 27th June 2014. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.407 million barrels whereas distillate inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels for the same time period.EIA inventory forecastThe EIA is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report tonight at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to decline by 2.2 million barrels for the week ending on 27th June 2014. Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 0.4 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to increase by 0.8 million barrels for the same time period.

Outlook EnergyOn an intraday basis, we expect crude prices to trade on a weak note on profit booking at higher levels although violence in Ukraine has escalated. Also, manufacturing activity in the US and China has gained momentum indicating that crude demand will rise in the coming months acting as a positive factor.Meanwhile, the EIA inventories due to be released tonight is expected to report a drawdown in stockpiles further supporting prices.On the MCX, crude prices are expected to trade on a lower note in line with weakness in international markets.

CopperLME Copper traded marginally lower taking cues from weak manufacturing data from the US. Also, mixed economic data from Euro Zone along with trend reversal in inventories exerted downside pressure on prices.However, sharp losses were restricted owing to favorable manufacturing number from the biggest consumer, China. Also, China is relaxing the rules used for calculating the amount of deposits that banks can re-lend as loans in an attempt to stimulate growth in its cooling economy. Further, strong manufacturing data from UK and fall in unemployment rate in the Euro Zone supported gains.MCX Copper prices jumped by 1.3 percent yesterday and closed at Rs.427.7/kg despite Rupee appreciation and fall in international prices.

Outlook Base MetalsWe expect LME copper prices to trade sideways owing to estimates of mixed economic data from the US in the evening session. Also, weak housing and construction data from UK will act as a negative factor.Further, weakness in the DX along with upbeat market sentiments will support gains.Indian markets will take cues from international markets.