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Armed conflict, education and the marriage market: evidence from Tajikistan

ARMED CONFLICT, EDUCATION AND THE MARRIAGE MARKET:
EVIDENCE FROM TAJIKISTAN
by
Olga N. Shemyakina
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(ECONOMICS)
August 2007
Copyright 2007 Olga N. Shemyakina

This dissertation examines the effect of the 1992-1998 armed conflict in Tajikistan, a transition economy, on the micro-level behavior of individuals and households. The empirical strategy exploits the variation in regional differences in the extent and intensity of war-related events and the timing of the individual's exposure to the civil war.; Does exposure to armed conflict affect education? If it does, how long does the effect last and what populations are most vulnerable? The findings suggest that exposure to the conflict had a significant, negative and persistent impact on school enrollment and completion of the mandatory nine grades of schooling by girls who were of school age during the war and who lived in regions severely affected by armed conflict. While the enrollment rates in Tajikistan started to rise soon after the end of the war, school enrollments in the conflict affected areas took a longer time to catch up to their pre-war levels.; Has the economic shock measured by conflict exposure also induced the population to postpone marriage and child-bearing? The second essay of my dissertation explores the effects of the conflict on the marriage market for women and timing of first births. The findings suggest that the exposure to conflict had a negative impact on the rate of entry into first marriages by women who were of marriageable age during the war and had virtually no effect on the interval between female age at first marriage and first birth. To what extent did the decrease in the number of men of marriageable age due to the war affect the marriage market for women? The results indicate that the sex ratio of men to women had a significant negative effect on difference in age between husbands and wives for women in the treatment group, however, no effect was found on entry into their first marriages by females and timing of first births.

ARMED CONFLICT, EDUCATION AND THE MARRIAGE MARKET:
EVIDENCE FROM TAJIKISTAN
by
Olga N. Shemyakina
A Dissertation Presented to the
FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL
UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
(ECONOMICS)
August 2007
Copyright 2007 Olga N. Shemyakina