When the first edition of Projected Standings was released on the 6th of January, I was hoping to be able to compare the next edition of the projections to available market odds. I am going to wait for Pinnacle Sports to release their odds so there is no comparison together with edition 2 of projected standings.

As in the first edition current depth-chart, projected playing time for each player and the schedule of each team is used in team construction. Each team consists of a five-man-rotation, a batting lineup of nine batters (eight + league average pitcher in games where NL-team is the home-team) and an eight man bullpen.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

NATIONAL LEAGUE

TEAM

W

L

W%

TEAM

W

L

W%

TOR

84

78

51.9 %

WSN

90

72

55.6 %

BOS

84

78

51.9 %

MIA

84

78

51.9 %

NYY

81

81

50.0 %

NYM

79

83

48.8 %

BAL

80

82

49.4 %

ATL

73

89

45.1 %

TBR

79

83

48.8 %

PHI

69

93

42.6 %

TEAM

W

L

W%

TEAM

W

L

W%

DET

86

76

53.1 %

STL

88

74

54.3 %

CLE

84

78

51.9 %

PIT

86

76

53.1 %

KCR

79

83

48.8 %

MIL

82

80

50.6 %

CHW

79

83

48.8 %

CHC

81

81

50.0 %

MIN

70

92

43.2 %

CIN

78

84

48.1 %

TEAM

W

L

W%

TEAM

W

L

W%

SEA

89

73

54.9 %

LAD

93

69

57.4 %

LAA

87

75

53.7 %

SFG

84

78

51.9 %

OAK

83

79

51.2 %

COL

80

82

49.4 %

HOU

75

87

46.3 %

SDP

78

84

48.1 %

TEX

72

90

44.4 %

ARI

73

89

45.1 %

Some bigger changes compared to the first edition has occurred due to some player transactions, revised player projections and updated depth charts. Biggest movers are Nationals +6 wins, Tigers +4 wins and Twins -4 wins. The Nationals +6 wins is not only due to the Max Scherzer addition (only adds 1-2 wins) but a sum of all the variables described above.

As you mention San Diego has restructured their lineup. If things proceed as projected, they will field a whole new outfield in 2015. On paper and without deeper analysis, an outfield consisting of Upton, Myers and Kemp looks good. Both Upton and Kemp are proven hitters and Myers was a few years ago one of the most highly regarded prospects in the game. A fact is though that none of these players are good fielders, and with Kemp's recent injury history and Myers struggles last season the trio should only be considered (projected) a slight upgrade. Derek Norris also provides some improved batting ability to the lineup but the offensive upgrade comes with some questions regarding his defensive skills. As a group the Padres batters are below league average both offensively and defensively. The Padres should create more runs the upcoming season but they will probably also give up more runs than in 2014.

The Padres won 77 games in 2014. After simulating the 2015 season with current schedules, depth charts and player projections the Padres ends up with 79 wins. Their starting rotation and bullpen is definitely above average and if their lineup possessed league average defensive skills you could add 3-4 wins to their projection. 90 wins is of course possible, but at least according to my projections highly unlikely.

Reply

Lukas

8/2/2015 15:27:04

I think that what is forgotten about the Padres is that they have had a pretty good coaching staff that was very good at improving the defensive skills of position players. Especially at positions they weren't used to playing. (AKA Myers in CF) This is something that shouldn't be forgotten.

Reply

Lukas

8/2/2015 15:31:29

Also, they look as if they could be signing Shields, which should bump them up 3 games alone.

That's a good point Lukas. Managerial decission making and player coaching is of course an important part of the game. Manager ability could of course be an input in ones handicapping model, but as far as I know, this part of the game is very hard to quantify. The same could be said of the impact of coaching and player development. What I am trying to say is that Myers might become a good center fielder with the help of Padres coaching, but I don't have the tools to make an accurate enough prediction of that to happen.

Ethan C.

9/2/2015 19:14:27

Looks more realistic than edition 1. Can't believe in 5 years the Phillies went from top spot to dead last that quickly. Embarassing!!!

Toronto's lineup looks offensively pretty good. The pitching rotation is decent at best and the bullpen should get contribution from from Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil. Behind them it looks a bit thin. I am going to run a new set of simulations next week and I could take a closer look at Blue Jays bullpen in addition to analyzing what James Shields adds to a already strong Padres rotation.

As you mention the Phillies are not going to contend now and probably not in the near future.