Lots of growth opportunitiesSTRENGtHSGreatest strength: growth storiesNew global growth forecast (IMF) cutting growth:3.3% in 20123.6% in 20133.5% this year3.9% next yearBlame on the U.S. and Europe for not getting their fiscal, monetary, budget “cliffs” in orderChina’s growth trajectory is slowingLower demand for its exports by the more advanced economiesContinued internal purchasing demand within each of the BRICS economiesNatural tendency to trade their goods in national currenciesDoling out $75 billion to the IMF for the Eurozone bailout fundSpoke out against protectionism in the December 2011 WTO ministerial meetSTRENGtHSTreated as junior partners by the major emerged economies“IMF-Washington consensus” designed to protect and advance the economies of the Euro-Atlantic-Japan sphere of economic influenceScarce overlapping and collective foreign policy agendasUnable to create a united front to demand reordering of the global political systemWEAKNESSESTHREATS AND RISKSWestern mismanagement of their economies Increased bilateral trade using their national currenciesEurozone crisis and Washington’s propensity to export inflation via quantitative easing Political desire to act out alone when victims of selfish policy-making coming out Washington and BrusselsPolitical riskApril 2014: Political Risk Map by Aon Risk SolutionsIncreased risk rating for all five emerging market BRICS countriesIncluding:political violencegovernment interferencesovereign non-payment riskDowngraded ratingPolitical risks increased from moderate levelsEconomic weakness increased role of the government in the economy Particular concern given this year’s World Cup and the 2016 OlympicsBRAZILLargely downgraded ratingUkraine and the annexation of CrimeaWeak operating environment for businessIncreased exchange transfer risksRisk of new capital controls Economy dominated by the governmentIncrease in the risk of political violenceRUSSIADowngraded rating Legal and regulatory risks elevated by ongoing corruptionModerately high levels of political interferenceRisks of political violence:Territorial disputesTerrorismRegional and ethnic conflictINDIADowngraded rating to moderately highDeterioration in political riskSlowing economic growthEconomic policy deadlock and economic sluggishness mutually reinforcedCHINADowngraded ratingDespite having strong political institutionsStruggling from recurrent strikesWeaken the outlook for businessRaise financing costsSouth africaEnvironmental CONSTRAINTSPotentially a critical risk to the economic riseGrave impact on rural incomes (India, Brazil and China)Urbanization, industrialization, intensive agricultureEnvironmental CONSTRAINTSMajor cities vulnerable to rising sea levels¼ of the population living near the coastSignificant agricultural sectorsBound by environmental pacts  limit their growthRESOURCE ISSUESBrazil and Russia: resource-rich commodity exportersChina and India: dependence upon importsGrowing shortages and competition for resources drive up commodity pricesIf technological advances reduce dependence on conventional energy sources and/or commodities  Russia and Brazil will face reduced prospects for growthIndia: robust population growthRussia: population in declineBrazil and China: forecast to face declining populations China: 'one family one child' policySignificant constraint particularly for Russia and ChinaDEMOGRAPHICSPoor infrastructuresBrazil saves and invests too littleIndia needs significant economic reformsInvest enough in infrastructure to maintain growth

GENERAL UNCERTAINTYSTRUCTURAL CONSTRAINTSCatching up with the developed economiesThe development of a partnershipJim O'Neill (Goldman Sachs) invented the termFirst summit in June 2009 in RussiaResearch and developmentEducationThe entry of South Africa