On The Siladon Event as of today, Galaxy Battleships has 22 completions on Task 1 with 6 partial, 9 completions on Task 2, and 14 completions on Task 3 for a total of 45 completions and we are still sitting at High chance. So it looks like in order to move up to Certain it is going to take more completions for Task 2, even though we have 45 total.

15 full completions on Task 2 is what I'd suggest you aim for if Certain is the goal.Anything less than 150 completions on Task 2 has never gotten TWH above High. 3 times we hit 150, Certain each time.

we were also at a Low chance last night on February 4, 2018 with:14 completions on Task 1 and 0 Partial15 completions on Task 2 and 0 Partialso only 1 more doing Task 1 jumped us up from Low to High, lol.

Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:08 pm

sharrell

Joined: Fri Mar 09, 2012 7:26 pmPosts: 71

Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats

On June 7, 2018 Galaxy Battleships reached High chance of success on The Hunt for Mawks - Offworld Pursuit.

Okay - before I update the wiki, this flies in the face of quite a bit of the established data points and I don't want to be accused of being wrong or faking data again when I am directly observing something that is different. Note that we did have High chances until Elios ended and it went back to Fair, and now have High chances again...so not sure if there was a change, or if there is a bug that's still hanging out from Elios, or if there are just multiple incorrect data points in the wiki...

I am counting 10 full and 20/10 partial for a total of 12 equivalent completions on task 1.I am counting 17 full and 13/20 partial for a total of 17 equivalent completions on task 2.

A legionmate pointed out he saw 10 (12) / 16 earlier this morning but haven't verified yet if he miscounted or somebody else did some work in the half hour between when he posted and when I checked. I suspect the former. But, it's a bit of a moot point as the empirical evidence to date has multiple Fair occurrences at 12 + 21 and higher equivalencies.

And for those that want a cut & paste instead of a screenshot, here's that same data a few minutes later (didn't bother checking to see if anything new was found while typing):

So I guess one question I have: is anybody else seeing inflated chances with missions that started during Elios still? Or any other explanations that folks can think up?

Though I suppose it could be the highest 13 equivalent on task 1 data point only has 13 on task 2 as well...so it could be a 12.5+ on task 1 minimum for high chances plus somewhere above 13 on task 2 in order to get it...

Given we know the chances were increased for Elios and the chance you got seems considerably outside expectations based on past observations, I would be willing to bet it is Elios and that if you got the same numbers again next time the result would be Fair.

Quite a few of the Fairs TWH has had since 2014 have had higher numbers for both Task 1 and Task 2, so I don't believe it is to anything to do with a weird combo. Eg: 17/21 and 25/25 (181/500) resulted in Fair last time we completed on April 26, 2018.Not impossible that it has been tweaked I guess, but likeliest explanation for me is Elios.

Last edited by senatorhung on Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.

Wed Aug 01, 2018 5:59 pm

Pitch Ninja

Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:42 amPosts: 1048

Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats

Wow of all people, I thought fellow wiki editors would know better.

Wed Aug 01, 2018 6:32 pm

Texas Toast

Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:44 pmPosts: 660

Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats

Texas Toast wrote:

Okay - before I update the wiki, this flies in the face of quite a bit of the established data points and I don't want to be accused of being wrong or faking data again when I am directly observing something that is different. Note that we did have High chances until Elios ended and it went back to Fair, and now have High chances again...so not sure if there was a change, or if there is a bug that's still hanging out from Elios, or if there are just multiple incorrect data points in the wiki...

Well, I addressed all 3 of your responses in my original post...

This is post-Elios. We had High chances during Elios w/less completions, and it went down to Fair. We are now back to High chances today.

Hence, why I posted here instead of in the wiki. Specifically, which I already asked and none have addressed and instead opting to state that Elios stats don't matter:

Texas Toast wrote:

So I guess one question I have: is anybody else seeing inflated chances with missions that started during Elios still?

In case there was some confusion, I am asking if any current legion missions also seem inflated now, not whether they were obviously inflated during Elios. As I mentioned above, we saw our success chances return to what would have been normal given the numbers that we have above as soon as Elios was actually shut off around lunch time on Monday.

Basically, I'm trying to figure out which of these conditions is true, not to report knowingly false data for something that doesn't apply which yes, as a wiki editor, I "should know" (and do, if you had actually read my query above):

1. Is there a bug with Elios still affecting legion mission success chances, even though it's been observed to have been turned off? (even if not to the same degree?) Does it only affect missions that were active at the time that the seasonal was up, or will this continue going forward until fixed (or just get ignored and hooray, legion missions are easier?)2. Are there multiple incorrect data points in the wiki?3. Was there just insufficient data on this particular mission and the breakpoint for High chances is not at 20 completions of Task 1 as was previously assumed?4. Was the success chances for this particular mission changed?

For point #3, I went through and put the actual equivalent completions in to compare with existing data, and it seems less likely:

Point #2 also seems unlikely.

Point #1 was what I was originally asking about to ascertain, but nobody has addressed my actual question instead just telling me I should know better and pointing out that Elios numbers are off. But we aren't in Elios, and these are this morning's numbers, so I want to figure out if that is what is going on across the board or on missions that started then that have some holdover or some other bug.

Point #4 is a possibility but I don't see any way to test for that other than to wait and see what other legions see on this mission when they come up later.

I think that a recent interaction from another thread sums up the comments between mine quite well even from another context:

senatorhung wrote:

an easy way to stop being called out for being clueless ? STOP BEING CLUELESS ! or at least stop posting without scrolling thru the previous posts in a topic. if something is obscure or hasn't come up often, a 'what is going on' post is perfectly legitimate, but are MULTIPLE instances of previous expressions of concern about this non.existant problem with the philtery.

detregets wrote:

The problem is that people come to the forum looking for help and instead get insulted. Whats wrong with politely pointing someone in the right direction ? It costs you nothing and Its rewarding to be thanked for help. This forum is supposed to be neutral territory where even hated enemies should still conduct themselves with a modicum of decorum.

senatorhung wrote:

i have happily provided explanations for this 'issue' to legion members who are not forum regulars. however, CP is a REGULAR forum user - as such i expect him to use a wee bit of common sense (canucks are generally known for having some) and do a bit of scrolling up in an appropriate topic or wiki page before posting something clueless. it took me 2 minutes to find the posts that i quoted.

2. Are there multiple incorrect data points in the wiki?No, as you suggest. The data points currently there conform to TWH's records of 20 completions, going back to early 2015.3. Was there just insufficient data on this particular mission and the breakpoint for High chances is not at 20 completions of Task 1 as was previously assumed?No, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, TWH has multiple occasions with more completions on both Task 1 and Task 2 that have not resulted in High.

Assuming the LM started in Elios, the most likely reason is Elios. Nothing else fits. Who knows why it reportedly went up and down. May have switched off at the end of Elios and then clicked back on, for who knows what reason, via who knows what mechanism.Not something we can really know with any certainty at all to be honest, unless you ask support and they tell you.

This is post-Elios. We had High chances during Elios w/less completions, and it went down to Fair. We are now back to High chances today.

you posted 01aug2018. mawks is a 4.day LM. hence the results are NOT post-Elios since the LM started before the end of the elios event on 30jul2018. we have no idea how Dan jigged the LM success changes for Elios. hence, the datapoint is unreliable and should not be used for comparisons.

to be specific: any LM success data for LMs started / completed between 06jul2018 and 30jul2018 are unreliable comparisons and should not be added to the wiki.

as for going forward, yeah, if anyone notices anything wonky, that is worth mentioning. however, your Mawks datapoint does not qualify since it is impacted by Elios.

Last edited by senatorhung on Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:19 am, edited 2 times in total.

Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:10 am

Guide

Joined: Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:52 pmPosts: 213

Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats

Does it really count from when the LM started though? Are you sure it's not just a global modifier that's removed once the event ends?

_________________Αϝαριτια Ιρα Συπερβια----------------------------

Thu Aug 02, 2018 3:16 am

senatorhung

Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2011 5:09 amPosts: 3177

Re: Legion Missions Success Category Stats

Guide wrote:

Does it really count from when the LM started though? Are you sure it's not just a global modifier that's removed once the event ends?

none of us knows how Dan tweaked the LM success formulas and i'm not going to speculate. but it is obvious from TT's results and commentary that the success chance of the mawks LM *did* fluctuate at the end of the Elios seasonal .. but we have no idea if the final success chance was bugged or not bugged somehow since it started before the end of the seasonal and Dan's formula might have still included the Elios impact. remember the notice at the end of each LM: "still processing the results" ? hence my conclusion that TT's mawks datapoint is unreliable and should not be compared with previous data.

for LMs started AFTER 30jul2018 around mid.day .. if those results are wonky, then it is worth sounding an alarm.

i have zero issue with TT bringing this issue up. it definitely raises interesting possibilities about figuring out Dan's LM formula. but even the fact that he felt the need to ask whether the data might be bugged proves that the datapoint does not belong in the wiki. since he started his OP with:

Texas Toast wrote:

Okay - before I update the wiki,

i don't think that my response that i would delete any points in the range 06jul2018 to 30jul2018 inclusive is unreasonable.