Edwards Supporter Resource Center

Thursday, September 20, 2007

The date listed above the title is the date on which I moved this compilation to this post. This review is updated the same day that new polls are released.

There are a few things I should make clear...

I am not a polling expert, nor am I attempting to pass myself off as one. I am, however, encouraging everyone to look at the totality of 2008 general election polling. While doing this, it becomes very clear that former Senator John Edwards is by far the most electable Democrat.

And for the record, I am in no way affiliated with the Edwards campaign. I am simply a very proud supporter who is thrilled to see that the Democrat most committed to fighting for a progresive agenda is also the most electable.Links

The numbers below only go back to January out of fairness to Senator Obama, who was not included in many general election polls before that time. In reference to Real Clear Politics' General Election polling averages, please read John Edwards and Polling Averages.

Here is a 10 week averageof the national general election polling that included all 3 Democrats fromJuly to early September. And here is a 10 week average of national general election polling that included all 3 Democrats from August to early October.

If you need a resource to deal with some of the spin being used by supporters of other candidates, try going here, or read the bottom of this diary.

I have also written about claims concerning who performs best against Rudy Giuliani going here. When reading this, it might help to illustrate what I mean by "natural closing". For instance, a recent Rasmussen poll in Illinois that only included Senator Obama and Senator Clinton, showed Senator Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by only 3% points. If we were to go by their rules, this means that Clinton could lose Illinois to Giuliani, but we all know that after natural closing takes place, she would almost certainly win the state if she were nominated.

Rasmussen (August 27, 2007): Edwards "Generally Outperforms Other Democrats in General Election Match-Ups Against Republicans." In an August 27, 2007, assessment of the latest general election polling data, Rasmussen Reports wrote, "While he generally outperforms other Democrats in general election match-ups against Republicans, Edwards remains mired in third place in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination." [Rasmussen, 8/27/07]

ABC News (September 2007): "Polls Show Edwards Does Better than Either of His Rivals in Head-to-Head Matchups with Leading Republicans." In a September 2007 report covering Edwards' endorsements from the United Steelworkers and United Mine Workers of America, ABC News noted, "One key selling point Edwards is making to unions — and increasingly to the crowds that come to hear him speak in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early nominating states — is that he stands a better chance of winning a general election than either Clinton or Obama. And in fact, polls show Edwards does better than either of his main rivals in head-to-head matchups with leading Republicans." [ABC News, 9/3/07]

The Global Strategy Group's memos are a great resource, and the data is presented in a very effective way. The first one can be found here. The second memo and third memo are also available.

To see state by state comments about Edwards' electability, skip down past the polling.

Since 2008 general election polling began, there has been a clear trend. Whether the Republicans he faced were Jeb Bush and Condi Rice, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and now Mike Huckabee... Senator Edwards has shown time and time again that he is the most electable Democrat. Senator Obama, and to a lesser extent Senator Clinton, have had a few days in the sun, but these occasions have become even fewer, and far between.

It has become crystal clear that if we as Democrats want to make the most out of the opportunity that has presented itself in 2008, we need to nominate and elect John Edwards. He is the only candidate who can win a realignment victory, and substantially grow the Democratic majorities in Congress. Edwards can win a sweeping mandate that can help end the "progressive = unelectable" myth, reclaim the Democratic party from corporate interests and spineless triangulators, and allow Senator Edwards to, in his own words, "really move a progressive agenda".

Public Policy Polling - OH: January 6, 2007

Vs. Mitt Romney

Clinton - 45%Romney - 40%

Obama - 44%Romney - 38%

Edwards - 53%Romney - 33%

Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 20%

Vs. Mike Huckabee

Clinton - 43%Huckabee - 45%

Obama - 43%Huckabee - 43%

Edwards - 49%Huckabee - 40%

Clinton trails by 2%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 9%

Vs. John McCain

Clinton - 42%McCain - 46%

Obama - 42%McCain - 45%

Edwards - 47%McCain - 40%

Clinton trails by 4%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards leads by 7%

Vs. Rudy Giuliani

Clinton - 44%Giuliani - 37%

Obama - 47%

Giuliani - 37%

Edwards - 51%Giuliani - 34%

Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 17%

Averages

Clinton leads the Republicans by 1.50%Obama leads the Republicans by 3.25%Edwards leads the Republicans by 13.25%

One interesting twist to this year's early Presidential polling is that Edwards typically outperforms other leading Democratic hopefuls in general election match-ups...

Still, Edwards currently leads the top four Republican candidates by an average of nearly nine points. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton leads the top GOP hopefuls by an average of six points, while Barack Obama holds an average lead of five points.

Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 2.00%Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.75%Edwards leads the Republican by an average of 15.25%

Newsweek - National: March 1st, 2007

Vs. Mitt Romney

Clinton - 53%Romney - 38%

Obama - 54%Romney - 34%

Edwards - 58%Romney - 30%

Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 28%

Vs. Rudy Giuliani

Clinton - 46%Giuliani - 47%

Obama - 43%Giuliani - 48%

Edwards - 45%Giuliani - 47%

Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 5%, Edward trails by 2%

Vs. John McCain

Clinton - 47%McCain - 46%

Obama - 45%McCain - 43%

Edwards - 48%McCain - 43%

Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 5%

Averages

Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 2.33%Edwards leads the Republicans by ab average of 10.33%

Newsweek - National: January 18th, 2007

Vs. Rudy Giuliani

Clinton - 47%Giuliani - 48%

Obama - 47%Giuliani - 45%

Edwards - 48%Giuliani - 45%

Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 3%

Vs. John McCain

Clinton - 48%McCain - 47%

Obama - 46%McCain - 44%

Edwards - 48%McCain - 43%

Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 5%

Ohio House Chief of Staff (R): Edwards Has the Best Chance of Winning Ohio in a General Election. During June 2007 interview, Scott Borgemenke, chief of staff for the Republican-controlled Ohio House of Representatives, predicted that Edwards was the Democratic presidential candidate most likely to carry Ohio in a general election. "I think if John Edwards wins Iowa and gets some steam and ends up being the candidate, Ohio could go with an Edwards type of Democrat, or an Edwards-looking Democrat, meaning he looks like every other Ohioan," Borgemenke said. "I think Ohio is very much in play for the Republicans if Hillary or Obama is the candidate." [OhioPols.com, Borgemenke Interview, 6/8/07]

Edwards Has Received Strong Support from Members of Congress from Red States and Rural Areas. Senator Edwards has been endorsed by 15 members of Congress, many of whom hail from so-called "red states" or rural districts. His congressional supporters include every Democratic member of the North Carolina congressional delegation, as well as Reps. Raul Grijalza of Arizona , Charlie Gonzales and Eddie Bernice Johnson of Texas , Jim Oberstar of Minnesota , David Obey of Wisconsin , Bart Stupak of Michigan and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota . [The Hill, Congressional Endorsements ]

Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes: "John Edwards Is the Best Positioned to Win All Across the Country—Not Just Part of It." In March 2007, former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes endorsed Edwards. "I proudly support John Edwards for President of the United States ," said Barnes. "He will fight to improve the lives of every American. He has detailed plans and bold ideas to change America . And John Edwards is the best positioned to win all across the country—not just part of it." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/23/07]

Former Kentucky US Rep. Ken Lucas: Edwards "Understands the South." In March 2007, former Kentucky Representative Ken Lucas endorsed Edwards. "John Edwards not only understands the South, but he will be a president we can trust and who will put our country back on track," Lucas said. [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/30/07]

Former Georgia Lt. Governor Mark Taylor: John Edwards "Is Definitely the Most Electable Candidate." In June 2007, former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor endorsed Edwards. " John Edwards was my candidate in 2004 and I am endorsing him again in 2008," Taylor said. "He is definitely the most electable candidate in 2008 and we need a southerner who is committed to providing good paying jobs with benefits for all Americans." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 6/5/07]

Former Texas US Rep. Chris Bell: "We Need a Candidate Who Can Fight and Win Everywhere in the Country, Including Here in Texas ." In March 2007, former Texas Representative Chris Bell endorsed Edwards. "If we want to take back the White House, we need a candidate who can fight and win everywhere in the country, including here in Texas ," Bell said. "I am convinced that nobody will work harder for the values that Texas Democrats believe in, especially by fighting every day for people who work for a living." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/8/07]

Texas Rep. Charlie Gonzales: Edwards is "the Strongest Candidate We Can Nominate for President in 2008." In March 2007, Texas Representative Charlie Gonzales endorsed Edwards. "I am convinced that John Edwards is both the strongest candidate we can nominate for President in 2008, and also the candidate who will fight hardest to implement an agenda that will improve the lives of the citizens in my district, and in the nation," Gonzales said. [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/7/07]

Los Angeles Times: In the West, "Party Officials Across the Region Are Increasingly Anxious That Their Congressional Candidates May Get Dragged Under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's Presidential Campaign." In September 2007, the Los Anegles Times reported, "Despite recent gains by Democrats in the Rocky Mountain West, party officials across the region are increasingly anxious that their congressional candidates may get dragged under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]

Polls Show Clinton Is the Most Unpopular Democratic Presidential Candidate. According to the Los Angeles Times, "The New York senator and Democratic front-runner was by a wide margin the most unpopular of 13 potential presidential candidates in Montana , according to a June survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Billings Gazette … Recent polls in Colorado , Nevada and Arizona have found similar distaste for Clinton ." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]

Arizona Poll: One Third of Independents Would Not Vote for Clinton. According to the Los Angeles Times, "In Arizona, where Democrats hope to pick up at least one congressional seat next year, 37% of the respondents in a recent Cronkite/Eight Poll said they would never vote for Clinton ; 3% said they would never vote for Obama. Opposition to Clinton was strongest among Republicans, but a third of independents, who were crucial to many Democratic congressional victories in 2006, said they would never vote for the former first lady. Clinton 's unfavorable ratings also far outpaced other Democratic candidates in recent polls in Nevada and Colorado , two states where Democrats hope to make gains next year." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07 ]

Colorado Pollster: Clinton Is "Carrying Huge Negatives Out Here;" Expects Udall to Distance Himself from Clinton if She Is the Nominee. According to the Los Angeles Times , "Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster who said Democratic congressional candidates would have to highlight their differences with the national party to be successful next year." "She's carrying huge negatives out here," he said. "It's that liberal East Coast image that is so hard to sell in the West." The Times also noted, "Ciruli and others familiar with Colorado politics expect Rep. Mark Udall, the leading Democratic contender for the state's open Senate seat, to distance himself from Clinton , if she wins the nomination." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]

Democratic Strategist: Clinton Is "a Disaster for Western Democrats … It Keeps Me Up at Night." According to the Los Angeles Times, "One key advisor to a prominent Democratic congressional candidate, who asked not be to identified discussing tensions within the party, went even further. 'It's a disaster for Western Democrats,' he said. 'It keeps me up at night.'" [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]

Democratic Strategist: Clinton Will Drag Down Democrats in Republican Areas. In September 2007, a Democratic strategist told National Review columnist Jim Geraghty, "I'd say outside of Arkansas , any marginal southern races are gone [for Democrats] if Hillary's the nominee." The strategist then cited numerous examples of places where Democratic incumbents would suffer with Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket. [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]

Georgia: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Rep. Jim Marshall] is in a district where Bush carried 60 percent; if Hillary's the nominee, he's toast ... For [Rep. John] Barrow's district, it was a little closer (Bush carried 50.4 percent). But it's a race Democrats will have to spend money on to keep. I mean, it's Georgia, man." [National Review Online , Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07(emphasis in original)]

Texas: According to a Democratic strategist. "Lampson, [Tom Delay's old seat in TX-22], he'd be toast with Hillary as the candidate. Chet Edwards [TX-17] survived John Kerry, but I'm not sure he can survive Hillary if he gets a serious opponent. It's Bush's home district [for his Crawford ranch]. It's a tough thing even for a Ciro Rodriguez [TX-23]." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]

South Dakota: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Senator Tim] Johnson, between the physical ailments and thin margin of victory last time, is going to have a tough time, and Hillary would just knock him out it." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]

Louisiana: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Senator Mary] Landrieu is gonna have a fight no matter who nominee is, but I think Edwards is the only one who gives her a chance." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]

Associated Press: Democrats Across the Country Worry that Senator Clinton Would Hurt Down-Ballot Candidates. In August 2007, the Associated Press reported, "Looking past the presidential nomination fight, Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom. They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to vote, they worry. In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races." [Associated Press, 8/12/07 ]

Indiana State Representative: Clinton "Would Be a Drag" on Candidates in His State. According to the Associated Press, Indiana State Rep. David Crooks said of Clinton being the Democratic presidential nominee, "I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana , but she would be a drag" on down-ballot candidates. The report also said, "Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like his full of 'gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending' voters. 'She is just so polarizing,' the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]

Midwest State Democratic Party Chairman: Clinton Would be a "Nightmare" for Down-Ballot Races. According to the Associated Press, "The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]

Western Democratic Congressman: Clinton "Most Likely to Cost Him His Seat." According to the Associated Press, "A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]

Greenville, South Carolina , Party Chairman: Clinton Will Turn out Republicans to Vote Not Likely to Vote Otherwise. According to the Associated Press, "'The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular,' said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. 'I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't. Republicans are upset with their candidates ... but she will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls.'" [Associated Press, 8/12/07]

West Virginia House Leader "Has Some Legitimate Reservations" About Clinton at the Top of the Ticket. According to the Associated Press, Carrie Webster, a West Virginia state House leader, said of having Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket, "I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]

Pollster John Anzalone: "For Edwards, He's a Southern Guy and There's a Comfort Level There." In May 2007, Alabama-based Democratic pollster John Anzalone explained Edwards' early fundraising advantage the South, saying, "For Edwards, he's a Southern guy and there's a comfort level there." He said that in the case of Senator Clinton and Mayor Giuliani, "it's kind of like the Pace Picante Sauce commercial: They're from New York City ." [AP, 5/1/07]

Strategist Rick Dent: Many Southern Democrats "See Edwards as the True Southerner and the One Who Can Win." In May 2007, Atlanta-based Democratic strategist Rick Dent said Edwards' "strong support illustrates that many Southern Democratic leaders would prefer to see Edwards atop the party ticket. 'They see Edwards as the true Southerner and the one who can win,' said Dent." [AP, 5/1/07]