It’s been a
two man race for quite a few weeks.
Traditionalists pointing to Triple Crown numbers and Sabermetricians
pointing to WAR to determine the award. I presented a new angle earlier, even though I don’t personally agree
with it (at least not all by itself). It
mainly comes down to the following areas:

Offense: Cabrera simply beats Trout in almost
every offensive stat imaginable, HR, RBI, AVG, SLG, OPS, etc. However, Trout edges out Cabrera in two
ballpark adjusted stats, OPS+ (171 to 166) and wRC+ (175 to 166). Playing time is a huge component though, and
Trout missed most of the month of April, stuck in AAA. That’s enough for me to say that Cabrera has
been the best offensive hitter in the American League this year.

Defense: Defense is hard to quantify,
especially when we only have one year of data on each player (Trout only has
one year, period and Cabrera is playing a position he hasn’t played in quite a
while). My two “go to” stats have been
UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) and DRS (Defensive Runs Saved). Cabrera has not been the disaster at 3B that
everyone predicted, but putting preseason expectations aside, Cabrera has shown
to be a negative on defense. UZR has him
rated as the 5th worst defensive third baseman in baseball in 2012
at -9.2 runs. DRS is kinder on Cabrera,
only rating him -4 runs on defense.

Trout has lived
up to his scouting report as being very good on defense, using UZR and DRS as
the metrics. UZR says that Trout has been worth 13.3 runs, tied for 9th
among all outfielders in 2012. DRS rates him
even better, 3rd among OF at 21 runs saved this year.

Using one year
of data can be deceptive, though. People
may claim that Cabrera isn’t as bad as these numbers suggest. But even ignoring all numbers and just using
the eye test, it should still be concluded that Trout is a better defensive
outfield than Cabrera is a third baseman.
The question now is, is it significant enough to make Trout the more
valuable player in 2012?

Intangibles and Others: Ok,
so maybe you agree that Cabrera is the better hitter, but Trout has been the
better overall player. However, there
are intangibles that may put Cabrera back on top. Arguing that "valuable" isn't always synonymous with "best." For example, Cabrera moved to 3B to
accommodate the signing of Prince Fielder.
How much value is that worth?
Cabrera had a much better August and September to push his team to the
playoffs while Trout slumped and the Angels fell to 3rd place and
out of the playoffs (even though the Angels ended up with a better record than
the Tigers). How much value do you give
that? Maybe you give Cabrera the MVP for
winning the Triple Crown, a feat that hasn't happened in 45 years, end of discussion.
According to run expectancy, Trout has given his team bigger hits than
Cabrera when context is factored. How
much value is that worth?

One thing
that might personally sway me to the Miguel Cabrera side is if we factor in
career stats. Normally, this is an award
to showcase that particular year, but it can be argued that Cabrera has
deserved the award in the past. Giving
him the award in a year that is this close can sort of “make up” for the fact
that he hasn’t gotten it yet. Trout is
young, has a long, bright future in his career.
He will have plenty of time to win the award if he is really this good.

Conclusion: There’s no right answer here. They intentionally leave the MVP voting rules
vague to leave it up to the individual voter’s discretion. How much weight you give to each area will
determine who you believe is the winner.
I just happen to come to the conclusion that Trout’s value was more
valuable than Cabrera’s in 2012.

One thing’s
for certain, there has been a ton of debate on this this year. It’s sad to see some arguments come down to
degrading the other player to make their player appear better. These are two very special seasons that we
just witnessed this year.

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