CoaltoNewCastle wrote:Does anybody who has synthesized the data on LSN know if more people or fewer people have been accepted on LSN this cycle compared to this date last cycle?

fewer, quite a lot fewer. about 80% of total admits were made at this point last year vs 65% now.

Is that taking into account that 15-20% more people are using LSN this year?

how can we have a reliable read on this? i wouldn't at all be surprised if it's true, i'm just wondering what grounds there are for such a precise figure

Looks to me like there are actually fewer people on LSN this year. Under "users" there's an option to "view all," and for 2009-2010 the list is 40 pages long... compare that to 66 pages for 08/09 and 102 pages for 07/08.

CoaltoNewCastle wrote:Does anybody who has synthesized the data on LSN know if more people or fewer people have been accepted on LSN this cycle compared to this date last cycle?

fewer, quite a lot fewer. about 80% of total admits were made at this point last year vs 65% now.

Is that taking into account that 15-20% more people are using LSN this year? Just curious (and that number was just something I heard thrown around earlier in the cycle)

well if we are assuming that means a higher percentage of total admits are appearing on LSN (last year about 1/8 of total admits listed themselves on LSN) then its possible that only like 60 or 50% of total admits have gone out. But thats assuming a lot of things, firstly its assuming that there are more people listing their harvard apps, and I haven't checked that out.

Kronk wrote:Is that taking into account that 15-20% more people are using LSN this year? Just curious (and that number was just something I heard thrown around earlier in the cycle)

fwiw, i counted acceptances to date for columbia (thinking it would make me feel better to see that they're behind schedule), and the number for this year is remarkably consistent with previous years. it was like 140-something 2 years ago, 130 something last year, 140 something this year.

CoaltoNewCastle wrote:Does anybody who has synthesized the data on LSN know if more people or fewer people have been accepted on LSN this cycle compared to this date last cycle?

and coal, a while back you made a subtle dig to my quartiles saying they would be a little better but still not good if they only included acceptances up to february each year, and i did that too (excel programming easy), and in past year, the quartiles up to february were pretty close, if only slightly on the high side, to those of the eventual accepted group. i know, still not a great metric, but better, right? and hopeful, too!

CoaltoNewCastle wrote:Does anybody who has synthesized the data on LSN know if more people or fewer people have been accepted on LSN this cycle compared to this date last cycle?

and coal, a while back you made a subtle dig to my quartiles saying they would be a little better but still not good if they only included acceptances up to february each year, and i did that too (excel programming easy), and in past year, the quartiles up to february were pretty close, if only slightly on the high side, to those of the eventual accepted group. i know, still not a great metric, but better, right? and hopeful, too!

If that's true, then that just makes the increase in GPA's more terrifying to me as somebody whose GPA is only .03 above last year's 25th for GPA's. But of course a smaller portion have gotten in so far this year so I can hope that the 25th percentile for this cycle doesn't exceed 3.77.

CoaltoNewCastle wrote:Does anybody who has synthesized the data on LSN know if more people or fewer people have been accepted on LSN this cycle compared to this date last cycle?

and coal, a while back you made a subtle dig to my quartiles saying they would be a little better but still not good if they only included acceptances up to february each year, and i did that too (excel programming easy), and in past year, the quartiles up to february were pretty close, if only slightly on the high side, to those of the eventual accepted group. i know, still not a great metric, but better, right? and hopeful, too!

If that's true, then that just makes the increase in GPA's more terrifying to me as somebody whose GPA is only .03 above last year's 25th for GPA's. But of course a smaller portion have gotten in so far this year so I can hope that the 25th percentile for this cycle doesn't exceed 3.77.

the data's supposed to be comforting, not terrifying! nothing substantiates a significant change to target class profile, so the currently-inflated numbers seem to indicate a coming wave of more borderline admits, like you and me! that theory: auto-admits first, then fine-tune the numbers with the scrappier applicants.

ihybridi wrote:I know there's no way to tell for sure, but looking at the posts on this page...are we saying that Harvard at this point has sent out about 50-60% of its total acceptances?

Assuming LSN will in the end (that is, in May) contain approximately the same number of Harvard acceptances this year as last year, yes.

Not to make everyone more pessimistic than they already are, but I think the 50-60% figure is low. In my experience, there are many people on LSN who keep their profiles private until after the admissions cycle is over. There are probably at least a few Harvard acceptances that have already occurred but that won't show up on LSN until April or May.

Dignan wrote:Not to make everyone more pessimistic than they already are, but I think the 50-60% figure is low. In my experience, there are many people on LSN who keep their profiles private until after the admissions cycle is over. There are probably at least a few Harvard acceptances that have already occurred but that won't show up on LSN until April or May.

yea i would have thought this, too, but the november acceptances are not significantly lower in number this cycle than in previous cycles, while the january/february acceptances are significantly lower in number this cycle than in previous cycles. weird, huh.

i agree 50% is a little low, but i think 60-70% is believable? yea? please?

Dignan wrote:Not to make everyone more pessimistic than they already are, but I think the 50-60% figure is low. In my experience, there are many people on LSN who keep their profiles private until after the admissions cycle is over. There are probably at least a few Harvard acceptances that have already occurred but that won't show up on LSN until April or May.

yea i would have thought this, too, but the november acceptances are not significantly lower in number this cycle than in previous cycles, while the january/february acceptances are significantly lower in number this cycle than in previous cycles. weird, huh.

i agree 50% is a little low, but i think 60-70% is believable? yea? please?

It's believable. Although we probably can't pin a precise number on it, I think it's reasonable to assume that there are a substantial number of offers that have yet to be made.