Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Wednesday, 17 July 2013

There's an old engineering joke, and not really that funny a joke either, but it's about a hot air balloonist who isn't sure where he is. He sees a man on the ground, lowers the balloon and calls out:

"Excuse me, can you help me? I don't know where I am."

The man below replied, "You are in a hot air balloon hovering approximately 30 feet about the ground. You are between 42 and 44 degrees north latitude and between 83 and 85 degrees west longitude."

"You must be an engineer," said the balloonist.

"I am," replied the man, "but how did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically correct, but it's also of absolutely no use to me whatsoever."

I was reminded of this when thinking about Danny and his answers to the question of account preservation, and more recently his response to the question "but if he knows where to get Betfair's closing price for free, I'd be interested in that data". Well, we got a response, but once again, the answer is of no practical use.

Closing Betfair prices can be found at the excellent Oddsportal site. Must admit I usually go from the Pinnacle price but you can cross check the closing BF Oddsportal price against Fracsoft. It costs about 68p per game on Fracsoft though, however that site also is a great resource.

Well indeed they can, but only one at a time, which is an inconvenience when looking back at a season, but the numbers are also not very accurate. Looking at the last day of the season XX Draw Selection of West Bromwich Albion versus Manchester United, the draw price was matched personally at 4.0 on Betfair, but the Oddsportal Back price is reported as opening at 2.67 and closing at 3.52, while the Lay price closed at 3.84 after opening at 5.42. I very much doubt that there was a .32 difference between back and lay prices.

The rest of Danny's comment only shows that he doesn't read what I write, which is unfortunate. He also had this to say:

I do however have genuine concerns about some of your posts.Taking Bundaslayga for instance I am skeptical as these yields strike me as somewhat unlikely and I am wondering if there is a "devil in your detail". Also I would caution anyone to use that strategy next season unless you have done your own research and verified the returns.

"Genuine concerns" sounds very dramatic, but we are talking here about a suggested low-risk system that you may or may not decide to use alongside your other betting strategies. The turnover will certainly help to reduce the inevitable Premium Charges if you are successful on the exchanges in the long run, and if you are sceptical about the returns, (as you should always be), do your own research, run your own numbers. My post was an update on a system I first mentioned back in 2010 I think, it clearly explained where the prices I used were from, the actual prices I was able to get, and anyone has had plenty of time to follow this for themselves and decide if it is for them. I'm not telling you all to rush out and try this - I am putting out there an observation that you can choose to blindly follow, ignore completely, or take a look at yourselves, make modifications as you wish, and see if it suits you.What these "genuine concerns" are is quite baffling and a little pathetic to be honest, as is Danny's habit of making false claims. Ad hominem arguments are both false and annoying. My track record has been well documented on this blog for many years, and readers can make up their own minds whether comments such as this one are justified:

Anyway we can all make ourselves look like winners if we try hard enough can't we?

Danny's comments will no longer be giving the oxygen of publicity. I like comments, they make it easy for a blogger to keep a conversation going as it were, but there's a limit even to my patience.Jimbo suggested that:

maybe the Mr Murphy's post title could be 'There is none more blind than those who refuse to see'. .. Just a thought like

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.