As Heard on The Stephanie Miller Show

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

It looks like the always poised Hillary Rodham-Clinton is suffering from a really progressive case of B.O.

B. O., in this case stands for BarackObama.

A few weeks ago, Clinton had the whole thing wrapped up. But justlike her husband in his initial Presidential run, Obama has come out of nowhere to giveMistress Hill a run for her money.

Read this article from the Concord Monitor:

Two weeks after speaking to a sell-out Manchester crowd of more than1,600, Illinois Sen. BarackObama is reaping thebenefits of his visit. If the Democratic primary were held today, Obama would be in a statistical dead heatwith New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Monitor poll. Last month,a Monitor poll showed Clinton trouncing her opponents, with Obama lagging 23 points behind.

"I'm not surprised, because BarackObama got five days of constant mediaattention in New Hampshire," said Jim Demers, a lobbyistand former Democratic lawmaker who accompanied Obama throughout thesenator's New Hampshire visit. "Obama hasdemonstrated to the people of New Hampshire that he's a top-tier candidate."

Although Clinton commands considerable support among likely Democraticprimary voters, she struggles in general election match-ups, according to thepoll. If the contest were held today, both Arizona Sen. John McCain and formerNew York City mayor Rudy Giuliani would prevail over Clinton. Obama, in contrast, would eke out aslight win over both Republican candidates. Former Democratic vice presidentialnominee John Edwards is neck-and-neck with the Republicans.

"There are a lot of independents. These are the same people who loatheBush, loathe the Iraq war," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000, theMaryland-based nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll for the Monitorlast Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. "But deep down, they don't like HillaryClinton."

As the 2008 presidential primaries near, the Republican field has alsobecome increasingly competitive. Giuliani closed the gap with McCain in recentweeks, turning an 8-point deficit into a slight lead, according to the poll.Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House speaker Newt Gingrich trailbehind, with 10 percent and 8 percent respectively. The poll shows Giulianigarnering 26 percent to McCain's 25 percent. "McCain can't take New Hampshirefor granted the way he counted on them six years ago," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at St.Anselm College. "If Giuliani could break through anywhere, it would be in NewHampshire, with a large number of independents and a large number of relativelymoderate Republicans. He has the opportunity to cause John McCain a lot ofgrief."

This time around, McCain can no longer rely on being a fresh face, saidEdward Mosca, a former chairman of theManchester Republican Committee. "You've got a limited shelf life in politics,and he's been out there for a while," Mosca said. "I thinkMcCain's biggest obstacle in the primary is that he has the highestexpectations."Roughly one year out from the New Hampshire primary,political observers cautioned that polls offer little insight into the 2008presidential contest. History books are full of candidates who led the polls butlost the race: Bush, for example held a double-digit lead over McCain in aUniversity of New Hampshire poll conducted nine months before the primary.McCain proceeded to rout his opponents.

"You will have this tremendous amount of energy and motion to securethe allegiance of about 5,000 people," said Charlie Arlinghaus, president of the JosiahBartlett Center for Public Policy. "And nobody else is going to start payingattention until after the summer."

But the poll does reflect name recognition, and it may hint at thedirection in which voters are leaning, analysts said.

Obama's surge in popularity is "namerecognition of an unknown, that's what's really surprising about it," said Arnie Arnesen, a political analyst and formerradio talk show host. "We're so yearning for something different, and what wethink we know about everyone else doesn't excite us."

Voters interviewed Friday afternoon echoed Arnesen's comment. Lenny Young of Concordcompared Obama's charisma to that of John F.Kennedy. "He seems to have it," Young said. Although Young first heard of Obama during the senator's 2004 campaign,it wasn't until Obama visited New Hampshire that he tooknotice.Concord resident Mike Sheehan had thisadvice for the first-term senator: "Ride the wave." Obama's relative lack of experience - anoft-cited criticism - is also an asset. "You figure in six years, only badthings can happen," Sheehan said. As for Clinton, "you eitherlove her or you hate her," Sheehan said.

Excitement about a possible Obama run was alsoreflected last week in an Iowa poll. If the Iowa Democratic caucus were heldtoday, former vice presidential nominee John Edwards and Obama would each secure 22 percent of thevote, according to the poll, which was conducted by Research 2000, which alsoconducted the Monitor poll.

A Clinton visit, however, would also likely boost her numbers, Demers said. "I don't think anyone canunderestimate Senator Clinton coming in, with her level of name recognition, therole that her husband will be able to play in the campaign and the amount ofmoney that she has and is able to raise."

On the Republican side, Giuliani appeals to tough-on-terrorism socialmoderates, Ali said. "They've turned off of McCain because of his visits toJerry Falwell," Ali added. During his 2000 White House bid, McCain calledFalwell, a prominent evangelical, one of the "agents of intolerance." McCain hassince met with Falwell, and recently delivered the commencement address atFalwell's Liberty University.

The challenge for Giuliani, who is pro-choice, will come after NewHampshire, political observers said. "I wouldn't be shocked if Giuliani won NewHampshire," Ali said. But "what's going to happen when he goes to SouthCarolina?"

In addition to the challenge from Giuliani, McCain also struggles withhis stance on the war. While most prominent lawmakers are focused on withdrawingfrom Iraq, McCain has called for an increase of troops to quash the insurgency.

Support for the conflict in New Hampshire is at an all-time low,according to the poll. Three years ago, 79 percent of Granite State voters ratedBush's performance in handling the conflict excellent or good. Today, thatfigure has plummeted to 29 percent. The vast majority - 60 percent of voters -want troops to begin withdrawing before 2010.

For questions about the Democratic primary, Research 2000 polledDemocrats and individuals who identify as independents but said they wouldlikely vote in the Democratic primary. The same strategy was used for questionsabout the Republican primary. In order to poll 400 likely voters about eachprimary, Research 2000 conducted an over-sample, interviewing additionalresidents.

Apart from who's up and who's down in the primary polls, support forEdwards and Obama in the presidential match-upsreflect a larger political trend, Scala said. "Theseresults reflect that New Hampshire is a purple state that leans toward theDemocrats."

The one thing that may put a cap on all this is a certain mindset that is still previlant in many parts of the country.

There are people who will not vote for either a black man or a woman, even though either would be the better choice (which is why Condoleeza is not running.....a being single and she hits the trifecta!). You would think we would have evolved by now. Some have, many have not.

So if either runs, the GOP will run a white, male, married gentleman.....probably, unfortunatly, McCain...and just sit back and do nothing. They may not have to.

One simply can hope that either Barack or Hillary can motivate those who have evolved in to a strong enough voting bloc to block the racists and the sexists.