This spreadsheet displays the average of nine national pre-election polls which were used as a basis for the Election Model forecast. Also included are National Exit poll categories with adjustments made to match the estimated 48-45% Trump true margin (4 million votes). Therefore, he probably had at least 350 electoral votes, not the 306 reported.

Clinton won the nine pre-election polls by 47.5-46.0%.
Party-ID was 39D-32R-29I. As the de-facto challenger, Trump won an estimated 65% of late undecided voters. He won Independents in the nine polls by 43.6-33.8%.

Using the Gallup voter affiliation survey (32D-28R-40I), Trump won the nine-poll average by 47.5-45.1%.

Clinton won the Final National Exit Poll by 47.7-46.2%, which closely matched the recorded vote shares. Party-ID was 36D-33R-31I.

Using Gallup and NEP vote share adjustments, Trump matched the nine-poll average by 48.2-45.3%.

All National Exit Poll crosstab categories were forced to match the recorded vote. Each crosstabs vote shares and weights were adjusted to match the previously calculated True Vote. The adjustments are not unique; other estimates could achieve a match.

Key points:1. Pre-election polls over-weighted Democrats and underweighted Independents.
2. Exit polls over-weighted Democrats and underweighted Independents.
3. The Gallup voter affiliation party-id is the only such survey of the electorate.
4. All National Exit Poll categories are adjusted to match the recorded vote.
5. Trump won the True vote by an estimated 48-45%, a 4 million vote margin.