The highly competitive nature of NHL players can't change the reality that they never had a chance at winning their negotiations with owners.

As soon as NFL and NBA players agreed to concessions, NHL players clearly understood that winning was no longer an option. This was not an even playing field. The best they could hope for was to fight as aggressively as they could to hang onto as much as they could.

Today will be the most pivotal day in these negotiations because the NHL Players' Association is at the point where executive director Donald Fehr and players probably can negotiate their best deal without risking a financial Armageddon.

Two things have to occur today to provide the NHL with a chance to start the 2012-13 season in the foreseeable future. First, the players will have to move off their demand for a guarantee that their take won't fall below the $1.883 billion they received last season and embrace the idea of a percentage-linked system. Owners aren't going to back off on their desire for a 50-50 split. Owners want to see a full proposal from players that addresses that objective.

Second, if the players do that, owners have to respond by beginning to negotiate on the player contracting issues that seem to have become as important as the 50-50 split.

No one can say for sure that if those two events happen, the NHL will be up and running in two weeks.

But it seems quite definite that if owners and players don't make those movements, then negotiations are going to blow apart and the fallout could cause widespread damage for years. If true negotiations don't start now, we are in danger of losing another season.

Players have been talking as if they are willing to accept a 50-50 split, but they have been dancing around the edges of that move, unwilling to travel the final distance, because they are fearful that if they agree to that, then owners won't budge on the issues of arbitration, free agency qualification and contract lengths.

Owners, meanwhile, are concerned that if they start negotiating on those contract issues, players never will go to move to a true 50-50 split.

Talk about a lack of trust. The two sides don't need mediation as much as they need counseling.

It's crucial for both sides to move because it is still possible, even at this juncture, to have a 68-game season. Some people even believe a 70-game season is possible if the two sides could come to a quick resolution.

The owners have made it clear that they aren't going to move unless the players make the next big move. Owners have shown a willingness to at least address players' desire to have individual contracts honored, offering $211 million plus 2% interest to cover the first couple of seasons. Would they go further?

If the players make the move toward a true 50-50, the public pressure will be on owners to back off on the contract demands. Who knows how far owners will go, but it's hard to believe they would risk losing a season over arbitration rights or a five-year cap on contracts. Owners want these changes, but not as much as they want the 50-50. Their biggest issue on the contract issues is to eliminate legalized cap circumvention through back-diving contracts, which players are willing to address.

Players wanted more team revenue sharing, and owners are willing to do that.

These negotiations have always been about players making major financial concessions. That is going to happen. The only question is whether the season will be lost before we get there.