While timber prices were steady during the third quarter of 2018, there were some troubling developments impacting timber markets that continue to struggle to recover from the Great Recession.

“It doesn’t seem like timber markets can get a break,” Marshall Thomas, President of F&W Forestry Services, writes in the latest issue of his company’s quarterly newsletter, the F&W Forestry Report.

At the start of the quarter, housing and wood exports markets were doing fairly well, but by September, home construction had slowed and the trade war between the U.S. and China boiled over and is now impacting forest products.

“Housing starts seem stuck at 1.2 million, and there are way too many multi-family starts (which use much less lumber than single family homes),” Thomas said.

“And just when we thought the Chinese markets, which have propped up the West Coast log and lumber markets, were going to start positively affecting the Southern U.S., the trade wars take that new market away—along with established wood export markets out of the Northeast and the West,” Thomas added.

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While environmental policies have not been at the top of the Washington, D.C., news cycle lately, there are a number of changes quietly moving forward in our nation’s capital that impact forest landowners and forestry, from endangered species to water regulation and from renewable biomass energy to landowner assistance.

The Trump Administration is proposing a major overhaul of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) to provide clarity and ease regulatory burdens on landowners. At the same time, Congress is also considering significant legislative changes to the ESA, and the Supreme Court is poised to hear arguments concerning the designation of critical habitat under the ESA on a case involving Weyerhaeuser forestland in Louisiana.

The EPA is also moving forward with its proposal to address greenhouse gas emissions—known as the Affordable Clean Energy Rule (ACE), a federal court ruling has revived the controversial Obama-era Waters of the U.S. policy—better known as WOTUS, and Congress failed to meet a Sept. 30 deadline to pass a new Farm Bill, leaving funding for landowner assistance programs for forestry and conservation programs in limbo.

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When the Trump administration began imposing tariffs on Chinese products earlier this year— and China retaliated tit-for-tat—the U.S. wood products industry managed to stay out of the fray.

However, there was no escaping the third and latest round of Chinese-imposed tariffs, with forestry products hit hard with tariffs of five or 10 percent on hardwood and softwood logs, lumber, plywood, wood chips and more.

Even prior to the tariffs being imposed, the Hardwood Association reported that anticipation of the tariffs was having a negative impact on hardwood markets, resulting in a significant drop in timber prices.

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While West Coast timber prices have recovered nicely, the South continues to wallow in an oversupply of sawtimber and low stumpage (standing timber) prices. But pine log exports to the Far East from Southern ports may offer new opportunities for forest landowners.

Marshall Thomas, F&W President, writes in his company’s summer newsletter that Southern exports to China nearly doubled in 2017 from the previous three years.

“We will have to wait to see if this trend continues, but it sure is heartening to see that we exported pine logs worth almost $350 million last year,” Thomas said. “That’s probably not enough to affect prices, but it is a step in the right direction.”

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The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued a policy statement that formally recognizes forest biomass as carbon neutral, cementing a commitment made by former EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt earlier this year.

EPA said its actions are consistent with provisions included in Congress’ recently enacted omnibus spending bill, which directed the agency to work with the departments of Energy and Agriculture to establish policies that “reflect the carbon-neutrality of forest bioenergy and recognize biomass as a renewable energy source, provided the use of forest biomass for energy production does not cause conversion of forests to non-forest use.”

The new policy signals a definitive shift at the agency, which will now treat all burning of woody biomass as carbon neutral when used for energy production at stationary sources. The new policy is effective immediately for all regulatory programs using biomass from managed forests.

The EPA announcement said that U.S. forests have consistently served as a net sink of carbon, reporting that in 2015, the forest sector offset approximately 11.2 percent of gross U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

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The second quarter of 2018 saw another wave of announcements by lumber producers of plans to build new mills or expand current facilities to boost lumber production, particularly in the U.S. South.

The housing market is steadily growing stronger, lumber demand is robust, and manufacturers, for the most part, are thriving financially from the record high lumber prices driven up by demand. With lumber consumption expected to continue on an upward trajectory, lumber producers are aggressively positioning themselves to take advantage of anticipated future demand.

This quarter’s announcements include plans for new mills in Alabama and Texas, facility expansions in South Carolina and Mississippi, and a Canadian lumber producer acquiring two mills in the deep South that will significantly expand its presence—and production capacity—in the U.S.

The summer issue of the F&W Forestry Report details these announcements.

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Timber prices during the first quarter of 2018 remained relatively stable, with no real upward or downward trends, but several recent developments may point to better markets ahead for tree growers, the head of one of the nation’s largest forest management firms reports.

Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, writes in his firm’s spring newsletter that recent announcements of new greenfield sawmills in the South, coupled with planned expansions at existing mills, should lead to greater demand for sawtimber-size trees in the future.

“Increased demand is ultimately the answer to our problem of oversupply on the sawtimber side, so these announcements are positive news for tree growers,” Thomas writes.

Thomas notes that this good news involves long-term impacts. “But maybe that isn’t so bad,” he adds, because “any business that can anticipate a long trend of slowly rising prices is in pretty good shape.”

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EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has set the stage for a new policy at his agency regarding forestry and the treatment of forest biomass as an energy resource.

In a letter to New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, Pruitt laid out EPA plans for treating biomass and the forest products industry going forward.

“Understanding the importance of the forest products industry to New Hampshire, and recognizing the environmental, economic, and social benefits our nation as a whole derives from its vast resources, I write to highlight the work the Environmental Protection Agency has undertaken and is continuing to undertake to advance and promote the responsible use of those forest resources,” Pruitt wrote.

In a departure from the previous administration’s policy, Pruitt stated that “energy derived from biomass may in appropriate circumstances be recognized as carbon neutral.”

“Continuing to be responsible stewards of our nation’s forests and lands while utilizing all domestic forms of biomass to meet our energy needs are mutually compatible goals,” Pruitt said.

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During the first quarter of 2018, four announcements were made of plans to build greenfield sawmills in the U.S. South. Combined, the companies making the investments plan to spend $480 million on facilities that are projected to have a total annual production capacity of more than one billion board feet of lumber once operational. In 2017, the U.S. South produced 18.2 BBF of lumber, according to Lumber Track, a publication of the Western Wood Products Association.

Georgia-Pacific and Canfor announced they will build new mills in Georgia, near Augusta; Rex Lumber Co. is planning a new facility in Southeast Alabama; and Canada’s Tolko Industries is partnering with Louisiana-based Hunt Forest Products to build a new mill in Urania. These announcements come on top of other capital investments lumber companies are making in their existing facilities to bump up production capacity.

Also during the first quarter, two manufacturers of cross-laminated timber (CLT)—a relatively new but rapidly growing wood construction product in the U.S.—have announced plans to locate facilities in Maine, the first in the Northeast. The two companies plan to invest $52 million on facilities that will initially produce more than 10 million board feet of CLT annually.

North Carolina-based LignaTerra Global, LLC, plans to build its CLT production plant in Millinocket. Montana-based SmartLam, LLC, the nation’s first manufacturer of CLT, said it will announce the location of its new facility in the next two months.

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For timberland owners, many factors—including stable to increasing stumpage (standing tree) prices—may finally be pointing to a possible end to the long-running recession.

Not wanting to be overly optimistic but noting the positive trends, Marshall Thomas, President of F&W Forestry Services, discusses these trends in the latest issue of his company’s quarterly newsletter, the F&W Forestry Report.

Thomas notes that stable or increasing stumpage prices, housing starts nearing 1.3 million units, lumber companies investing to increase production and build new mills, the new tax bill, and recent action by the U.S. Department of Commerce regarding softwood lumber from Canada—all issues which are discussed in depth in the newsletter—make the new year look hopeful for timberland growers.

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