Fox News poll of likely voters: Romney 45, Obama 44

posted at 7:29 pm on August 23, 2012 by Allahpundit

Decent sample too: D+4, although I think actual turnout on election day might be a smidge narrower than that.

Romney leads by nine points among seniors and by 10 points among independents, and Romney voters are 11 points more likely to be “extremely” interested in the election than Obama supporters and 10 points more likely to say it’s “extremely” important that their candidate wins. Second look at optimism?

About one voter in ten is undecided or says they’ll vote for someone other than Obama and Romney. Among just those voters, 55 percent disapprove of the job Obama is doing and only 17 percent think the country has changed for the better in the last four years.

Among undecided voters Romney is viewed more negatively than positively by 28 percentage points, while Obama is viewed more negatively by 12 points…

On the big issue of last week, slightly more voters trust the Democratic ticket (by three points) to do a better job protecting Medicare and ensuring it’s there for future generations.

When asked who they trust to improve the economy and create jobs, voters favor the Republican ticket by two points — a surprisingly slim margin in light of President Obama’s negative ratings on the issue.

The good news is that the remaining undecideds out there take a dim view of The One’s presidency — unsurprisingly, or else they wouldn’t be undecided, right? The bad news is that Romney isn’t closing the deal yet. His favorable rating among them is gruesome, and among the overall electorate that’s a depressingly thin lead on the economy. But maybe that’s out of his hands: Some chunk of voters is surely still reserving judgment on O’s economic performance, waiting to see if there are any signs of real growth before election day. If he gets two more bad jobs reports, Romney’s margin on that question will open without him needing to utter a word.

It’s a 10-point swing from ages 55-64 to ages 65 and up. The only reason Obama leads on the Medicare question overall is because of the insanity of the under-35 group, a lower-turnout demographic. In fact, here’s the age breakdown on the question, “How important is it to you that the presidential candidate you are supporting win the election?”

Older, pro-Republican voters (as noted above, Romney leads by nine among seniors) are considerably more motivated than younger, pro-Obama ones (O leads by 13 among voters under age 35). Makes me wonder what sort of desperate youth pander The One might have waiting for September. Student-loan forgiveness, here we come!

One more data point for you. The first column is “fair,” the second “unfair”:

I’m not sure how much to take from that question. You could phrase the Democrats’ attacks on Ryan in a million different ways and get a million different poll numbers depending upon which pejorative adjectives you use specifically. But as a very broad gauge of how well their Mediscare attacks are working, this seems encouraging.

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However, wealth inequality destabilizes and weakens countries. The next great entrepreneur can’t succeed if the middle class lacks the purchasing power to buy a new product or service. This is what bothers the Mark Cubans, Reed Hastings, and Jeff Bezos of the world. Virtually all of them support higher taxes. But wait- none of those men can be trusted as authority figures who lack the intelligence and knowledge of Glenn Beck.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

If this were true, these exact rich men would have suffered the most under Obama’s record-setting non-recovery.

If 0 had moved more to the right after 2010, he would have been identical to Gov Romney. So these people can’t be disappointed with Barry for not being more centrist, and at the same time, not like Romney. It’s paradoxical.

Only option is they are disillusioned black or latino voters. Black voters who think Obama has stunk, but can’t vote against him so they say “someone else”, when in truth, they’ll just sit out. Or Latino voters who think Obama has stunk, but don’t like Romney for not picking Rubio. I’ve heard and seen both of those.

I have equal pessimism towards the fact that there are STILL AMericans who think Obama has done a “good job” and that Joe Biden would be a better President than Paul Ryan.

sigh.

Where are these people getting their drugs?

BettyRuth on August 23, 2012 at 7:32 PM

They’re not doing drugs, they are lying to the pollsters out of fear.

JPeterman on August 23, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Yes some of them are telling lies. They can’t be sure that’s really a pollster on the phone, it could be an greedy-union boss from where they work, looking for traitors to the cause. It could be an SEIU goon trying to ferret out which citizens to send a crew to visit. Who knows.

The proggies are getting desperate, down and dirty. Their life’s objective is in reach. Telling a lie to a pollster is a nice safe position. This is why we have secret ballots for the real election day.

Funny these liberal corporate types know that higher taxes are the answer. How many of them are putting a little extra in their checks to Uncle Sam? How many are like Warren Buffett ? You know looking for every way possible to get out of paying taxes then claiming they don’t pay enough. Brayam your pretty naive for a woman your age.

However, wealth inequality destabilizes and weakens countries. The next great entrepreneur can’t succeed if the middle class lacks the purchasing power to buy a new product or service. This is what bothers the Mark Cubans, Reed Hastings, and Jeff Bezos of the world. Virtually all of them support higher taxes. But wait- none of those men can be trusted as authority figures who lack the intelligence and knowledge of Glenn Beck.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:39 PM

You really do not have a clue do you? No one ever said that all the rich care..the whole point is that if their money goes to taxes it does not go to investment..it is not about their emotions.

As for wealth distribution, giving money to the government so that they can give it to some crony buddy somewhere does nothing to distribute the wealth. You seem to thing that wealth distribution means we give people a bigger welfare check or more food stamps..that might be why the middle class has lost so much ground since Barack Obama has become president..because the truth is that his socalled wealth distribution policies have done nothing to help the middle class or bring people out of poverty. Not a thing. It is all just talk and propaganda.

BTW, If Obama gets his way and raises taxes on that horrid 1% it will bring in about 80 billion..our deficit is 1.2 trillion. That is not even a rounding error.

Back in 2010 Obama himself said that raising taxes would hurt the economy, well the economy is more fragile now. He does not even know what he is doing. Amateur.

And the middle class lacks the purchasing power to buy a new product or service because they’re struggling to pay a mortgage, pay for their utilities, afford the rising cost of groceries and gasoline – all courtesy of the continuing failed policies of the boy king.

Flora Duh on August 23, 2012 at 8:45 PM

According to Barron’s, it’s the outcome of a prolonged balance sheet recession that followed in the wake of a once in a lifetime economic event. But if that’s the reality your heart is set on, no one is going to change your mind.

HAHA. bayam, did you even bother to read your own link? You clearly just googled and read the (admittedly) confusing headline “The Romney Hood Fairy Tale”. They’re calling the “Romneyhood” accusation a fairy tale, not Romney’s tax plan.

Observe:

The class warriors at the Tax Policy Center add all of this up and issue the headline-grabbing opinion that it is “mathematically impossible” to reduce tax rates and close loopholes in a way that raises the same amount of revenue. They do so in part by arbitrarily claiming that Mr. Romney would never eliminate certain loopholes (such as for municipal bond interest), though the candidate has said no such thing.

Based on this invention, they then postulate that Mr. Romney would have to do something he also doesn’t propose—which is raise taxes on those earning less than $200,000. In the Obama campaign’s political alchemy, this becomes “Romney Hood” and a $2,000 tax increase.

The Tax Policy Center also ignores the history of tax cutting. Every major marginal rate income tax cut of the last 50 years—1964, 1981, 1986 and 2003—was followed by an unexpectedly large increase in tax revenues, a surge in taxes paid by the rich, and a more progressive tax code—i.e., the share of taxes paid by the richest 1% rose.

For example, from 1980 to 2007, three tax rate cuts brought the highest marginal tax rate to 35% from 70%. Congressional Budget Office data show that when the tax rate was 70%, the richest 1% paid 18% of all federal income taxes. With the rate down to 35% in 2008, the share of taxes paid by the rich doubled to 40%.

And the closer:

The Obama Democrats, by contrast, favor income redistribution and raising rates on the wealthy for their own partisan political sake, no matter the damage to growth, the cost in lost revenue, or a less progressive tax code as the rich exploit loopholes.

The great irony is that the candidate most likely to raise taxes on the middle class is Mr. Obama. He could raise every tax on the rich he proposes and still not come up with enough revenue to finance the increases in spending he wants in a second term. Where do you think he’ll turn then?

No one ever said that all the rich care..the whole point is that if their money goes to taxes it does not go to investment..it is not about their emotions.

For the truly rich, a higher tax rate is pocket change that neither affects their net worth or ability to invest. I’m not suggesting the country should enact drastically higher higher tax rates, but simply pointing out that you’re repeating a widespread misperception.
All those wealthy guys like Mark Cuban have said this repeatedly, and you’d hear their message if you were willing to listen.

You seem to thing that wealth distribution means we give people a bigger welfare check or more food stamps..

That has nothing to do with it. You completely miss the point of Mark Cuban and everyone else like him.

Front page today in the Detroit News: OBAMA WINNING MICHIGAN, BY 5%, STABENOW WINNING OVER HOEKSTRA IN SAME NUMBERS. 600 likely voters polled. AND, I know you will find this odd, but Debbie Stabenow has already began comparing Pete Hoekstra to Todd Akin and his radical thinking….boy, we didn’t see that one coming did we?

According to Barron’s, it’s the outcome of a prolonged balance sheet recession that followed in the wake of a once in a lifetime economic event. But if that’s the reality your heart is set on, no one is going to change your mind.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:52 PM

“If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

You’re repeating the small business fairy tale that politicians love to spoon feed the masses. Keep it up.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Again, you googled and didn’t even bother to read your own link. It’s a study that concludes:

The researchers concludes that there is “no systematic relationship between firm size and growth.” Where there is a pattern, it shows that small businesses can actually detract from job growth. It cites, as an illustration, that in 2005, small businesses lost approximately 1 million jobs, even as the overall economy expanded by about 2.5 million.

So they conclude there’s no relationship between size and GROWTH- not EMPLOYMENT. That’s not at all what you are saying. And they cherry picked a single year to show a negative correlation. Pretty unimpressive stuff.

If you do some research you’ll find businesses with under 500 employees employ half the country.

Funny these liberal corporate types know that higher taxes are the answer. How many of them are putting a little extra in their checks to Uncle Sam? How many are like Warren Buffett ? You know looking for every way possible to get out of paying taxes then claiming they don’t pay enough. Brayam your pretty naive for a woman your age.

CW on August 23, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Yep. Has the slob Warren Buffett paid the nearly billion dollars in back taxes that he owes yet?

And now you don’t want me to feed you more red meat? If you believe that Romney’s plan is so great, you should love that article. After all, cutting taxes always leads to tax revenue increases. So long as you ignore the huge debt-fueled spending booms that occurred when those taxes were lowered, then tax revenues increased simply as a result of those cuts with no long term consequences.

You want a confidence booster? Here goes.
Ryan was a great pick; they are playing offense and catchign the dems off guard.

Seniors are hearing Ryans messages and so they are ahead with seniors now.

Then you have the convention. Millions of people will see Romney and Ryan giving their best speeches and they’ll get another bump in the polls.

Romney is running a really good campaign now. You (or I) can just tell by looking at both — O and Romney, that Obama knows hes in trouble.
Romney looks very confident. They both have the REAL numbers.
Not the bs that passes for public polls today. They know the real data and you can see it.

Then you got the debates.
Millions are going to see Romney attack O on the economy and millions will see Ryan and they’ll get another bump.

Then you have the jobs reports.
I’m not an overly optimistic person; I always am sceptical about things just to be prepared when /if the sh!t hits.

But even I believe Romney will win now.
I do not believe he’ll win by 10%. I think it will be close.

It’s just REALLY hard to be an incumbent.
They are tied and O is spending money like crazy right now. Romney hasn’t even started.

Oh btw, I know some far left lunatics on another site and they don’t like that Ryan was picked.

I don’t think Romney will win PA, but he will probably win WI now.
So he won’t need PA.
NV is tightening up, too.

And now you don’t want me to feed you more red meat? If you believe that Romney’s plan is so great, you should love that article. After all, cutting taxes always leads to tax revenue increases. So long as you ignore the huge debt-fueled spending booms that occurred when those taxes were lowered, then tax revenues increased simply as a result of those cuts with no long term consequences.

The researchers concludes that there is “no systematic relationship between firm size and growth.” Where there is a pattern, it shows that small businesses can actually detract from job growth. It cites, as an illustration, that in 2005, small businesses lost approximately 1 million jobs, even as the overall economy expanded by about 2.5 million.

Had to love how Brayam quickly had to go find some other link that she thought would NOW buttress her point. Too much.

Had to love how Brayam quickly had to go find some other link that she thought would NOW buttress her point. Too much.

CW on August 23, 2012 at 9:23 PM

It is pretty sad. Bayam of all people should know better than to try and convince you with links that don’t lead to Fox News, a shout-radio host’s blog, or something similarly vetted as a rightwing news source.

But if these liberals are all so stupid, why don’t you and other righties put them out of business? No one is stopping you- and don’t try and blame the government.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Your political Party has for 5 decades now controlled the Press. That’s always the first thing revolutionaries do whenever they try to take over a country.

But since the US is so much bigger than other countries, it’s taken much more than a half a century to take over the Press, take over Public Education, take over Higher Education, insert Democrat Moles at every level of the Federal Government, and, more recently, take over the Judicial System with Democrat Activist Judges.

The researchers concludes that there is “no systematic relationship between firm size and growth.” Where there is a pattern, it shows that small businesses can actually detract from job growth. It cites, as an illustration, that in 2005, small businesses lost approximately 1 million jobs, even as the overall economy expanded by about 2.5 million.

Had to love how Brayam quickly had to go find some other link that she thought would NOW buttress her point. Too much.

CW on August 23, 2012 at 9:23 PM

My point was that small businesses aren’t the source of most job growth and to stop worshipping the small business owner as the nation’s greatest hero.

It is pretty sad. Bayam of all people should know better than to try and convince you with links that don’t lead to Fox News, a shout-radio host’s blog, or something similarly vetted as a rightwing news source.

MelonCollie on August 23, 2012 at 9:29 PM

I see I hurt your feelings. I apologize.

Funny you though are too simpleminded to see that she posted two links that did not agree with one another. You go ahead and keep playing like a child and the rest of us will move on. Again I am sorry.

It is pretty sad. Bayam of all people should know better than to try and convince you with links that don’t lead to Fox News, a shout-radio host’s blog, or something similarly vetted as a rightwing news source.

MelonCollie on August 23, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Hence the comedy of it. bayam cited a rightwing editorial and didn’t even know it.

The liberals might have built Google, but they can’t keep bayam from hurting himself with it.

Your political Party has for 5 decades now controlled the Press. That’s always the first thing revolutionaries do whenever they try to take over a country.

And then those stupid libs invented blogging and software like WordPress, completely disrupting old media and giving the right a new voice and way to funnel its minions into virtual echo chambers. Strange and cunning are the ways of those evil leftists.

Name the great up and coming entrepreneurs who are conservative… Joe the Plumber?

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The funny thing is that those up and coming entrepreneurs operate their businesses on purely capitalistic principles while they extol the benefits of statism for everyone else. Being liberal donks ain’t what got them their success. Bill Gates for example is one of the prime examples of a voracious capitalist. Look up FUD and its history for example. No soft-hearted liberalism there at all.

BY ALLAHPUNDIT
Decent sample too: D+4, although I think actual turnout on election day might be a smidge narrower than that.

Good for you AP. Every thread on a poll should begin with the internals. As to the likely turnout on election night, you are, sadly, wrong. At worst, it will be R+1. At best it will be R+6. Mitt Romney will be a great President.

Good for you AP. Every thread on a poll should begin with the internals. As to the likely turnout on election night, you are, sadly, wrong. At worst, it will be R+1. At best it will be R+6. Mitt Romney will be a great President.

Basilsbest on August 23, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Good, and if the polls doesn’t make the internals available, don’t bother writing an article on it.

Not at all. Nice catch for you, but bayam wasn’t being lazy, just a leftist. A typical leftist trick is to supply a link as “evidence” or “proof” knowing the vast majority of people won’t click it at all and many who do won’t read the whole thing.

Leftists are dishonest to the core. If they were not, they could not be leftists.

The funny thing is that those up and coming entrepreneurs operate their businesses on purely capitalistic principles while they extol the benefits of statism for everyone else. Being liberal donks ain’t what got them their success. Bill Gates for example is one of the prime examples of a voracious capitalist. Look up FUD and its history for example. No soft-hearted liberalism there at all.

AZfederalist on August 23, 2012 at 11:07 PM

The fact the Jobs is pro-choice makes him a superior job creator, or something.

I called this one on Foxnews and their phony polling. The last poll Fox had Obama up by 8 or 9 points. Back than I said Fox did that polling on purpose because their next poll would include the VP pick and Fox would show Rommney in the lead.

This poll is still too pessimistic WRT the Republican turnout. It’s going to be closer to even, with a possibility of a small Republican advantage this year. Outside of 2008, the Democrats have only had a 0-4 point advantage in presidential elections since Reagan – THAT is the baseline, not the +7 Dem of 2008. Enthusiasm is all with the Republicans this year, so a +4 Dem turnout is highly, highly unlikely.

And the middle class lacks the purchasing power to buy a new product or service because they’re struggling to pay a mortgage, pay for their utilities, afford the rising cost of groceries and gasoline – all courtesy of the continuing failed policies of the boy king.

Flora Duh on August 23, 2012 at 8:45 PMAccording to Barron’s, it’s the outcome of a prolonged balance sheet recession that followed in the wake of a once in a lifetime economic event. But if that’s the reality your heart is set on, no one is going to change your mind.

bayam on August 23, 2012 at 8:52 PM

According to MY balance sheet, read check book, Flora is right, and you are just plain wrong.

And THAT balance sheet is the one people will have in their back pocket or purse on election day when they go behind that curtain, not an issue of Barrons.