Strategy Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend 2.0

The over / under 2.5 market is very popular among bettors and not with a lack of reason. Its odds generally close to two make it very attractive and easy to follow. In this article we discover a winning strategy for this market with excellent results. Do you want to discover how to get the best out of over 2.5 bets? Find out below.

Betaminic is a website that has a free online tool called Betamin Builder for analysing soccer statistics and historical bookmaker odds. By analysing past data of over 100,000 matches, winning patterns can be found. For example, there are some leagues where backing over 2.5 goals in certain conditions leads to profit long term. Betaminic’s tool, the Betamin Builder, allows you to find those value patterns. There is also a way to have future picks from those profitable trends emailed to you so that you can bet on them. Basically, if you can find what betting system would have made profit in the past, it gives you a promising strategy to follow in the future. You can sign up for freehere and see for yourself.

Summary of the results

These are the results obtained after analyzing the strategy “Over 2.5 goals: Bet against the trend 2.0” using historical data between April 2012 to February 2017

Total Bets

Bets Won

Bets Lost

Av. Odds

Net Profit!!!

Yield!!!

508

278

230

2.29

+122.66

+24.14%

Description of the Strategy

The average odds for the bet type “Over/Under 2.5 goals” for most games is even; that means, odds usually set around 2.00 (1/1) for each bet, without deducting the fee or commission for the bookmaker. Regarding the probability, that implies about 50% chance. Following this statement, we can think that after three games in a row finished under 2.5 goals, the market odds for the fourth match to end over 2.5 goals could be higher than their real value, influenced by a recent streak. The system wants to take advantage of those odds (more information about this concept by clicking here)

The concept of this strategy is based on the break of that streak and taking advantage of overvalued odds due to the existing streak. Wesearch teams where the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded), and the opponent team with the same condition, the last three games ended under 2.5 goals too.

Therefore, the target of this betting system is to search games where both teams with the last three football matches played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded). If that condition is fulfilled, we place an Over 2.5 goals bet in the fourth match.

For this strategy, we are using opening oddstoselect the matches and closing odds to calculate the P/L mainly for two main reasons. On the one hand, using opening odds it is possible to get the picks of the strategy well in advance because the opening odds are known enough time before the start of the match. And, on the other hand, the P/L of the system is based on closing odds to allow the figures to be as realistic as possible. Nevertheless, the final results of the strategy do not differ in any great if we take the opening odds to estimate the profit and loss.

Reasons to create this new version 2.0

We take a look at the reasons why we decided to build a new strategy based on the original.

We received feedback from our users regarding receiving the picks much further in advance. As the conditions were based on the closing odds, it was not possible to send all the picks earlier, because some games don’t reach the odds required until a couple of hours before the match starts. We understand sometimes there is no time to place a bet if you receive the picks a few hours before the game, besides the trouble to keep an eye on the odds movement. Therefore, now the follow-up is more convenient, whether you are subscribed to the strategies or follow the system by your own.

When the first strategy was published, we only had data of some leagues. Now, we have more leagues data available.

Most of the games selected on the original strategy are included in the new version, and also more picks will be triggered by the new system.

After analysing the figures of the new version, they show better results compared to the original one, more bets and similar yield.

The changes of the new strategy compared to the previous one are as follows:

The strategy will use opening odds instead of closing odds to select the games of the strategy, due to the fact that the opening odds are known well in advance.

We have added new leagues to the strategy that help to improve the overall results, which is a good indication of the health of the strategy.

The rest of the filters and conditions remain unchanged.

Strategy Results by year

Here you can see a breakdown of the results by year.

Year

Bets

Net Profit

Yield

2012

42

+18.21

+43%

2013

89

+16.29

+18%

2014

123

+40.31

+33%

2015

130

+19.83

+15%

2016

108

+19.23

+18%

2017

16

+8.79

+55%

TOTAL

508

+122.66

+24%

The table shows that the strategy has consistent results over the period. There have been years with a higher yield than others, but it generally remains constant.

System Parameters

These are the filters or conditions used for this system:

Leagues.We have tested this strategy with 37 leagues.

Odds.Odds are taken from Pinnacle Sports, opening odds to select the games and closing odds to calculate the P/L.

Seasons.From season 2012/2013 to the current one 2016/2017.

Date range. From April 2012 to February 2017.

P/L Calculation method. To bet one unit on Over 2.5 goals, when the conditions are fulfilled.

Home Team conditions. The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).

Away Team conditions. The last three games played overall finished under 2.5 goals (scored + conceded).

Odds for Over 2.5 goals. Opening odds must be included in the interval 2.10 – 2.40.

The Trigger of the system. If those conditions are fulfilled, the system places an Over 2.5 bet on the fourth match.

Yield. The Yield obtained in the system: 24% after 508 bets matched in the strategy.

Yield %: Net Profit or Loss / Total Stake * 100%

Win/Lost Bets Ratio

For this betting system, we obtain a 55% ratio of winning bets. There lies the key to the success of the strategy, combined with the selected odds interval.

Total bets

Ratio

Bets Won

278

55%

Bets Lost

230

45%

The past results show that more than half of the games ended up as winning bets. If you decide to follow this strategy, please remember that you have the final say to place a particular bet.

Table #1. Analysis of the results by League

** Please note that the table only shows 10 results by default, you can change that in the “show entries” box to display all results.

Strategy Over 2.5 goals: against the trend 2.0 - League Analysis -

Country

League

DIV

Total Bets

Bets Won

Bets Lost

Average Odds

P/L 2012

P/L 2013

P/L 2014

P/L 2015

P/L 2016

P/L 2017

TOTAL P/L

Yield

wdt_ID

Country

League

DIV

Total Bets

Bets Won

Bets Lost

Average Odds

P/L 2012

P/L 2013

P/L 2014

P/L 2015

P/L 2016

P/L 2017

TOTAL P/L

Yield

1

Argentina

Primera Division

AR1

5

4

1

2.27

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

4.47

0.00

4.47

89

2

Australia

A-League

AUS

1

1

0

2.17

0.00

0.00

0.88

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.88

88

3

Belgium

First Division A

B1

3

2

1

2.11

0.00

0.00

0.11

1.18

0.00

0.00

1.29

43

4

Colombia

Primera A

COL

41

19

22

2.24

0.00

-2.64

4.51

-1.18

3.08

-1.00

2.77

7

5

Germany

Bundesliga

D1

4

1

3

2.17

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.60

-2.00

0.00

-1.40

-35

6

Germany

2. Bundesliga

D2

8

3

5

2.19

-1.00

-1.00

0.00

0.60

-0.03

0.00

-1.43

-18

7

Denmark

Superliga

DE1

8

5

3

2.21

0.00

0.00

-1.00

1.85

2.80

0.00

3.65

46

8

Denmark

1st Division

DE2

15

7

8

2.23

0.00

1.21

0.00

-1.02

0.18

0.00

0.37

2

9

England

Premier League

E0

6

4

2

2.14

0.00

1.17

2.71

0.28

-1.00

0.00

3.16

53

10

England

Championship

E1

23

10

13

2.22

-1.00

-1.01

5.47

2.06

-6.00

0.00

-0.48

-2

∑ = 114

∑ = 56

∑ = 58

∑ = -2.00

∑ = -2.27

∑ = 12.68

∑ = 4.37

∑ = 1.50

∑ = -1.00

∑ = 13.28

The system obtains a positive result, a 24% yield after 508 bets during five years. As you can check, the system is profitable for most of the football leagues tested. This strategy doesn’t trigger many bets in every league because the conditions are not easy to get as well as the odds filters (between 2.10 and 2.40). But adding up the bets for all the leagues, we obtain a significant number of games.

You can display the chart of the leagues:

Table #2. Analysis of the results by Odds range

Strategy Over 2.5 goals 2.0 - Odds range -

Odds range

Bets

P/L 2012

P/L 2013

P/L 2014

P/L 2015

P/L 2016

P/L 2017

TOTAL P/L

Yield

wdt_ID

Odds range

Bets

P/L 2012

P/L 2013

P/L 2014

P/L 2015

P/L 2016

P/L 2017

TOTAL P/L

Yield

1

2.10 - 2.15

116

1.78

3.82

6.53

3.42

-5.28

1.27

11.54

10

2

2.16 - 2.19

45

0.36

5.34

5.10

1.74

4.22

1.51

18.27

41

3

2.20 - 2.24

80

1.47

-0.17

5.82

-2.07

0.16

2.49

7.70

10

4

2.25 - 2.30

102

5.17

5.61

13.17

3.97

8.11

1.73

37.76

37

5

2.31 - 2.34

88

6.95

4.22

1.72

6.42

14.28

2.51

36.10

41

6

2.35 - 2.40

77

2.48

-2.53

7.97

6.35

-2.26

-0.72

11.29

15

∑ = 508

∑ = 18.21

∑ = 16.29

∑ = 40.31

∑ = 19.83

∑ = 19.23

∑ = 8.79

∑ = 122.66

If we analyse the results by odds range, we can confirm that the system works for every interval, where the yield keeps constant at each odds and for every year. Most of the years the strategy is profitable for each range, which gives us the confidence to trust the system.

In this chart, you can see the distribution of the profit per odds interval.

Table #3. Detail of the football games included in the strategy

Here you can find the detail of all the past football games that fulfil with the filters and conditions of the betting system.

All the matches and results are the outcome of the strategy previously explained in a transparent manner. Errors and omissions excepted, these are the past games that comply with the requirements of the strategy.

Football Matches included in the Over 2.5 goals 2.0 Strategy

Date

Country

League

DIV

Home Team

Away Team

Full Time Home Goals

Full Time Away Goals

Full Time Result (Over / Under 2.5)

Opening Odds

Closing Odds

P/L

Accum.

wdt_ID

Date

Country

League

DIV

Home Team

Away Team

Full Time Home Goals

Full Time Away Goals

Full Time Result (Over / Under 2.5)

Opening Odds

Closing Odds

P/L

Accum.

1

16-04-2012

USA

MLS

MLS

Chicago Fire

Houston Dynamo

1

1

Under 2.5

2.36

2.50

-1.00

-1.00

2

20-05-2012

Japan

J1 League

J1

FC Tokyo

Tosu

3

2

Over 2.5

2.27

2.37

1.37

0.37

3

13-06-2012

Japan

J2 League

J2

Okayama

Machida

2

1

Over 2.5

2.37

2.22

1.22

1.59

4

03-07-2012

Sweden

Allsvenskan

SWA

Djurgarden

Goteborg

3

2

Over 2.5

2.25

2.16

1.16

2.75

5

15-07-2012

Japan

J2 League

J2

Oita

Shonan

1

4

Over 2.5

2.31

2.18

1.18

3.93

6

11-08-2012

Slovakia

Super Liga

SLO

Nitra

B. Bystrica

1

1

Under 2.5

2.33

2.27

-1.00

2.93

7

25-08-2012

Slovakia

Super Liga

SLO

B. Bystrica

Presov

0

0

Under 2.5

2.35

2.60

-1.00

1.93

8

01-09-2012

England

League One

E2

Stevenage

Shrewsbury

1

1

Under 2.5

2.11

2.50

-1.00

0.93

9

03-09-2012

Ireland

NIFL Premiership

IR1

St. Patricks

Derry City

3

0

Over 2.5

2.36

2.47

1.47

2.40

10

14-09-2012

Japan

J2 League

J2

Giravanz Kitakyushu

Gifu

2

1

Over 2.5

2.24

2.24

1.24

3.64

∑ = 3.64

This chart shows the progress of the results by date.

In the chart above, you can see that the strategy has hardly a big drawdown, the greatest loss is about ten points, which is not important. It is true that the last year the system only made 5 points profit, although this is not a significant point if we look at the big scenario.

Here, the system doesn’t have a long negative streak, so the drawdown for the period studied seems not hard to face. But we cannot assure it will continue that way in the future. Most of the betting systems suffer a negative streak; that’s something you have to get used to if you want to succeed in the world of the sports betting.

Drawdown

When you start designing a new strategy, one of the key factors of a risk assessment is the maximum drawdown of the system. If you develop a strategy making a profit overall, it’s vital to calculate its max drawdown. It will help you to estimate the risk you are willing to assume. It is so important the maximum amount of loss as well as the length of that period.

The study of the maximum drawdown has to be compared with the total profit of the strategy to establish the risk of the system. If you calculate the amount and duration of the worst losses of the past results, you will be able to identify at any moment whether the behaviour of the strategy is indeed withing the normal limits. That will help you to control your emotional situation for losses streaks.

We are going to calculate the maximum drawdowns for this strategy.

Estimated level of risk: LOW.

Year

Max DD

From

To

Length

2012

-3.00

11.08.12

01.09.12

21 days

2013

-5.64

02.10.13

24.11.13

53 days

2014

-6.00

20.09.14

05.10.14

15 days

2015

-11.72

08.10.15

08.11.15

31 days

2016

-8.82

17.09.16

17.12.16

91 days

MAX DD

-11.72

08.10.15

08.11.15

31 days

P-value

For this strategy, the Approx. P-value = 0.0001, wich means we have very strong evidence that the results for this systems are not a matter of only luck.

For those who might be unfamiliar with the p-value concept, here you can find a brief explanation: The P-value, or calculated probability, is the probability of finding the observed, or more extreme, results when the null hypothesis (H0) of a study question is true – the definition of ‘extreme’ depends on how the hypothesis is being tested. P is also described in terms of rejecting H0 when it is actually true, however, it is not a direct probability of this state.

P > 0.10

No evidence against the null hypothesis. The data appear to be consistent with the null hypothesis.

0.05 < P < 0.10

Weak evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.

0.01 < P < 0.05

Moderate evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.

0.001 < P < 0.01

Strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the

alternative.

P < 0.001

Very strong evidence against the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative.

Conclusions

As you can check, this system makes a profit for a high number of leagues, that shows that this strategy is pretty solid, because the conditions and filters are adjusted correctly for a large number of different football leagues.

To sum up, we think this strategy can be profitable for a long time, making small corrections to keep the good result. But as you know, this strategy is based 100% on statistical data. As we have mentioned many times, this kind of strategies are studied with historical data; nobody can be sure this system will continue making profits in the future.

The results obtained prove that the strategy remains stable for years, without significant drawdowns and also many leagues are perfectly matched with the conditions established.

As we usually advise, we recommend you not to pull all your eggs in one basket. You will have more chances to success in the long term if you can combine some systems within your personal strategy. We are here to help you, publishing more studies of this nature.

As we said before, if you want to propose a particular betting system to be analysed, please send us an email to support@betaminic.com or using our contact form, we will be glad to help you.

Minimum suggested odds

We will send the picks by email with “minimum suggested odds”, that means you will have a reference point to place your bets. The calculations are performed to obtain a theoretical yield of 5% betting on the minimum odds, always based on past data. It means that if you had always bet using the min odds, you would have achieved a 5% yield with historical data of the strategy. However, we continually advise opening accounts with different bookmakers to choose the highest odds available.