Cutaneous neurofibroma is a kind of benign skin tumor suffered by most people with NF1, which means that there is a mutation in the gene which codes for neurofibromin 1, which is a tumor suppressing protein. NF1 has a frequency of 1:3000 which makes it more frequent than CF and less frequent than MS. By the numbers above, a drug which prevents or eliminates cutaneous neurofibroma would be worth $3billion.

“NF1 is highly variable in its expression, however (ie, the severity of and specific manifestations of the disorder vary among affected individuals within the same family and from one family to another) . ”

Why ask? The real question is: How hard is it to simulate a cell. At a brute force level, the answer is: hard. Obviously there is a lot of structure to a cell that I can’t begin to imagine. It’s something I should study up a bit more.

The Xerox ACH implementation http://www.pherson.org/PDFFiles/ACHTechnicalDescription.pdf
has Credibility and Relevance scores of Low=1/sqrt(2), Medium = 1 and High = sqrt(2). The Consistency score is Very Inconsistent = -2, Inconsistent=-1, and Neutral, Consistent and Very Consistent are 0. The Weighted Inconsistency Score is Credbility * Relevance * Consistency. So any evidence item which is not inconsistent gets a weight of 0.

For my ACH-ish model, as applied to rationales with comments supplied for forecasts, I will weight as follows. Let the forecast be F. Assign Credibility and Relevance scores of Low=1/(2sqrt(2)), Medium = 1/sqrt(2), and High = 1. Let the Consistency score C be -1,-1/2,0,1/2,1. Let W = Credibility * Relevance. Then my ACH-ish-model weighted forecast will be W100*(C+1)/2 and ignore the original forecast in the formula, just looking at it as a shorthand for the text and how to view the import of the text.

So far I see 74 forecasts for FARC of which 32 have rationales. My model for FARC is ACH-ish as above. The Consensus has been towards 0 on FARC except it just picked up a little. The early comments on FARC anticipated that pick-up.

Just asking, because my habit of listening to Ce Ce Peniston, Robin S and Mary J. Blige at work is causing me to get ads on Pandora for a rehab facility catering to high-flying C-suite types hiding severe addictions.