Then came the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which redrew the commonwealth’s Congressional map to counteract Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 election cycle. Suddenly Kelly’s 16th district became a plausible pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

But just how plausible?

Kelly’s old (3rd) district from 2013-2018. Via Kelly’s new (16th) district. Via Wikipedia.

“I think we’re feeling pretty good,” he said. “We’re executing well on all fronts. People are very concerned about a congressman [Kelly] who isn’t working for them … We’re peaking at exactly the right time,” he told PennLive’s John L. Micek at the time.

Indeed, a New York Times/Siena College poll a month before Election Day showed Kelly holding a 50-42 percent lead over DiNicola It strongly suggested that DiNicola had ground to make up before Election Day. More than four in 10 respondents, about the same who said they had a favorable impression of Kelly, didn’t know enough about DiNicola to form an opinion.

What does it mean for 2020?

So was this a one-off event triggered by the sudden shifting of the map and a Democratic wave election, or a sign of more battles to come?

DiNicola performed strongly in his home county of Erie and well in cities like New Castle and Hermitage. Nevertheless, DiNicola ran behind Gov. Tom Wolf especially in Butler County where some blue seeds appear to be sprouting in the areas outside of Pittsburgh.

Despite all this, Kelly likely remains the DCCC’s third-highest priority in PA behind Perry and Brian Fitzpatrick. Therefore it’ll take an impressive performance from the entire Democratic ticket all across the commonwealth to toss him out in 2020.

Although unlike past cycles, such a scenario is now a real possibility