Bangladesh may think of forming a
scientific panel comprising of scientists and leading researchers to assess the
vulnerability including the magnitude of climate variability in terms of natural
disaster to provide the best guidelines for policy makers to address the issues
in global warming that 21 century might encounter.

Climate change appears to be a serious threat to
humanity and ecosystem. It is said that with global warming bio-geographic
atmosphere of the world is changing gradually. Scientists predict catastrophic
impact of climate change associated with sea level rise enormous coastal areas
of some densely populated countries going under water.

Climate change might result in shifting of
climate zones, changing agricultural productivity, forest bio-diversity and
other ecosystems. Frequency and duration of natural disaster might increase. It
may have direct or indirect impact on public health with increased incidence of
various menacing diseases like dengue, malaria etc. A number of initiative
launched globally to address this disastrous situation including United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol but the
global warming barometre is rising higher than expected. A portion of IPCC
report mentioned in the UNEP's Global Environment Outlook 2000 says:

"The IPCC mid-range scenario projects an
increase in global mean temperature of 2.0° C, within a range of 1.0 to 3.5°
C, by the year 2100, the largest warming in the past 10,000 years. Average sea
level is projected to rise by about 50 cm, within a range of 15 to 95 cm, by the
year 2100. A 50-cm rise in sea level would lead to the displacement of millions
of people in low-lying delta areas and a number of small island states could be
wiped out (IPCC 1996b)".

This critical issue of climate change is a matter
of concern for Bangladesh also. Now-a-days Bangladesh is much cited in the
global environment discussion as one of the most vulnerable countries of the
world. Cyclones, floods, storm surges, droughts are very frequent. Out of 54
Commonwealth countries Bangladesh stands second after Vanuatu in vulnerability
ranking. In the recent past it witnessed several cyclones and floods, which
caused huge casualties with colossal damage to property and infrastructure.
Although Bangladesh achieved commendable success in the field of disaster
management, relief and rehabilitation, it is possible that global climate change
may result in even worse trends in the future.

Bangladesh, a deltaic country, is largely flat
and nearly 50 per cent of the landmass has an elevation less than 10 metre above
sea level. Several studies were undertaken on the vulnerability of Bangladesh to
the climate change, particularly to the sea level rise. In the IPCC report of
1995 it was estimated that one metre sea level rise could displace nearly 15
million people in Bangladesh. Projected impacts include:

Land loss and population displacement

Increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas

Agricultural impacts (e.g., loss of yield and
employment) resulting from inundation, salinization, and land loss

Impacts on coastal aquaculture

Impacts on coastal tourism, particularly the
erosion of sandy beaches.

The report also said: "The Ganges-Brahmaputra
delta is one of the world's most densely populated areas, and the combined
effects of subsidence and sea-level rise could cause serious drainage and
sedimentation problems, in addition to coastal erosion and land loss. With
higher sea level, more areas would be affected by cyclonic surges; inland
freshwater lakes, ponds, and aquifers could be affected by saline and
brackish-water intrusion. The present limit of tidal influence is expected to
move further upstream, and increases in soil salinity, as well as surface-water
and groundwater salinity, may cause serious water supply problems for drinking
and irrigation over large areas (Alam, 1996). Reduced dry-season freshwater
supply from upstream sources may further exacerbate salinity conditions in the
coastal areas of Bangladesh. These impacts clearly would have immense
socioeconomic costs (The Regional Impacts of Climate Change, Cambridge
University Press, P.401)."

This depressing scenario projected in the 1995
report is even worse now as IPCC projected more warmer world in future increase
in the average temperature 50 per cent higher than predicted just half a decade
ago. This dismal projection combined with other environmental degradation and
over population puts enormous stress on the environment and stands between the
choices of an uncertain future. Now, it's time to work with intelligent
environmentalism, otherwise millions of people will be forced to migrate further
inland and even the largest mangrove forest (the Sundarbans), a world heritage
site of pride will go in oblivion for ever.

What Bangladesh would do in this disastrous
scenario while it contributes little in these warming process? For Bangladesh
little GHG emission is survival emission to ensure bread and butter for her poor
people. If Bangladesh cuts all of its emissions, it will make people starving
but nothing will happen to stop the forthcoming peril. Since the Bush
administration has taken office in the US, Kyoto Protocol seems dead or at least
in a slumber. If US agrees to ratify the protocol now, yet nothing will be
achieved in the short run. "In the short run, there's not much chance of
halting global warming, not even if every nation in the world ratifies the Kyoto
Protocol tomorrow. The treaty doesn't require reductions in carbon dioxide
emission untill 2008. By that time a great deal of damage will already have been
done (Time, April 9, 2001).

Bangladesh is a party to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a signatory to the Kyoto
Protocol. Government puts much emphasis on this global issue. So far, Bangladesh
actively participated in all conferences of the parties, working group meetings,
successfully drawn attention of the world community on the issue of country's
vulnerability. At home number of conservation and aforestation programmes have
been undertaken, including Coastal Green Belt Project, to halt cyclone and tidal
surge and to enhance sink; ODS phase out programmes are being implemented.
Simultaneously environmental rules and regulations are framed and enacted,
including "Environmental Court Act 2000," in response to the needs and
priorities, that as a whole might improve environmental consciousness in the
country. But for addressing the colossal issue, these are not sufficient.

To my view, Bangladesh should think locally for a
sustainable future evolving mitigation policies and strategies to combat the
adverse impact of the climate change that may result in displacement of millions
of people from their habitat. Would Bangladesh be able to face this grave
consequence of loosing its coastal areas and accommodating one tenth of its
population in the mainland that would likely not vanish but will carry the scar
of a catastrophic disaster associated with the loss of bio-diversity, threatened
ecosystem, contaminated water, numerous diseases and widespread environmental
pollution? In its present context, it is difficult to answer, but we must
answer. We don't want to see our coasts in peril, people displaced, heritage
lost. We don't have reason to doubt on the report as we have no different
research-based information that disprove existing predication. We have one task
ahead that is to prepare for the possible consequences. But unless we can
apprehend the gravity and magnitude of the climate change efforts will be
futile.

Bangladesh should take immediate action programme
based on sound scientific research. To this end Bangladesh may think of forming
a scientific panel comprising of scientists and leading researchers to assess
the vulnerability including the magnitude of climate variability in terms of
natural disaster to provide the best guidelines for policy makers to address the
issues in global warming that 21 century might encounter. It is also important
to have a working group comprising of a law and policy maker, scientist a
researcher and a civil society representative to review the findings of the
scientific panel and to recommend appropriate policy initiatives and action
programme to be undertaken immediately. This integrated approach will help us to
develop climate change adaptation strategy for the country to face future
challenges.