Report Archive - commodities

Record gold and silver prices have created a stir in the market, with many pundits now placing their bets on silver as this decade’s “new gold.” In this study, we look at the relative attractiveness of gold and silver, which may help identify pairs trading opportunities.

A November 2010 Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research study pointed to strong momentum for gold over the medium term, identifying strong global liquidity and low interest rates as support for a continued rally. Since that report, gold prices have risen by about 6%. In this new study, we revisit the gold rush theme: a) examining and comparing the performance of gold mining stocks at a regional/country level, b) shedding light on gold’s key macroeconomic price drivers and its performance versus other metals, and c) gauging the short-term outlook based on the Commitment of Traders report.

Crack spreads help explain the expected profit margin from refining, or “cracking,” crude. The most popular is the 3:2:1 crack, the spread of trading crude, gasoline, and heating oil at the aforementioned ratio. Refineries typically attempt to hedge their price risk using such a ratio, while speculators may use it to make directional price bets. There is a lead/lag relationship between the 3:2:1 crack spread and refining stock prices. Therefore, the recent rise in crack spreads may provide a bullish outlook for refiners. See Related Reuters Insider Video

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is a valuable tool in gauging market sentiment and near-term market direction. Data on corn futures’ trading reveal that companies on the consumption end of that industry have been hedging more actively in the recent past than have companies on the production end. This likely reflects commercial buyers’ fear of rising prices. At the same time, another trading segment, money managers, have been increasing net positions. This trading activity indicates a near-term bullish outlook for corn.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report helps analyze trends in the fluctuating positions of different classes of traders in futures markets. As such, it is a valuable tool in gauging market sentiment and near-term market direction. A top-level analysis of COT oil futures data, based on those who trade for industrial purposes (i.e., commercial sellers and buyers of oil), suggests a near-term neutral-to-bearish outlook for oil prices, as commercial sellers are hedging more than commercial buyers.

What is propelling the yellow metal to such record highs? Has the rally translated into higher gains for gold mining stocks? What do major economic and market indicators point to? In this study, we examine these issues, with a larger objective of comparing gold bullion performance to broader commodities and to gold mining stocks.

The next decade may see an increased number of threats to freedom of trade. Interpretations of acute movements in price (as in the rare earths commodities case) will have to examine the possibility of trade “guerrillas” hiding in the equation.

From 1980 to 2005 commodity prices remained rangebound. Thirty years earlier, from 1952 to 1972, something similar had happened. However, two different and distinct price jumps occurred between and after those two periods. The symmetry of these four periods is not, curiously enough, mirrored by economic growth. Is the pattern set to repeat?