Why pursuing MJD would make no sense for the Broncos

There is only one scenario under which the Broncos should consider a trade for Maurice Jones-Drew:

He'd have to drop his demands for a new contract.

Anyone see that happening?

Right.

The Twittersphere is, um, atwitter (sorry) with speculation that Denver might be interested in trading for the disgruntled Jaguars back. Let's examine why that's not only highly unlikely to be true, but a terrible idea.

Consider the background:

When Jacksonville drafted MJD in the second round of the 2006 Draft, they did so planning for a future without Jaguars icon Fred Taylor. Three years later, Taylor had moved on to the Patriots, and Jones-Drew had shown himself worthy of the primary back role, but was entering the final year of his rookie contract.

Potential costs

The Jaguars wisely gave Jones-Drew a four-year extension with $17.5M in guarantees and a total value of $30.95M over five seasons. Of course, MJD has outplayed the value of that contract by all measures, averaging 1,795 yards from scrimmage and 11.3 touchdowns on 4.53 yards per rush for three years.

He's due to make $4.45M this season, and $4.95M in 2013. Players of MJD's caliber tend to make about double that.

At 27, Jones-Drew has reached an age where top running backs are generally looking for their last big contract.

The problem with that, of course, is that veteran running backs are almost never worth the hefty contracts they're paid, as I was just discussing with my pals Terrell Davis, Shaun Alexander, and Chris Johnson.

And while we honor old friend Clinton Portis in his retirement, it's only fair to point out that CP delivered just four full seasons on the eight-year, $50.5M deal he signed with Washington to facilitate the Champ Bailey trade; the contract included $17M in guarantees. In 2008, CP got $15M more in guarantees as part of a restructuring.

Jacksonville's brass is either cognizant of these cautionary tales, they just don't feel like paying MJD, or both.

The response from Jones-Drew and his representation is that he's open to being dealt to another team. This can easily be translated to read, "I am willing to be traded to whichever team will give me the contract that Jacksonville won't."

And of course, any deal for Jones-Drew would also require sending the Jags some serious compensation in the form of a high draft choice.

So you're looking at around $20M or more in guarantees, plus a high draft choice, all for a 27-year-old back with 1,762 touches on his tires. If you're wondering, Terrell Davis logged 1,824 touches in his entire career.

It's certainly possible that MJD is the next Emmitt Smith, Tiki Barber, or Curtis Martin, and will be highly effective into his thirties. But there's just no way of knowing.

The cost alone would appear to be prohibitive.

The Manning factor

And we haven't even touched on the fact that Denver has already sunk $18M into Peyton Manning this season.

For years now, we've been asserting that winning in the NFL is about passing the football. John Elway & Co. know this, as evidenced by their stunning acquisition of Manning. They understand that nothing is more key to winning a Super Bowl than a great quarterback, so they've put all their eggs in the Peyton basket.

Having made those commitments, in terms of both finances and on-field strategy, it would make no sense to invest draft choice(s) and a hefty contract in a veteran running back. Putting PMFM behind center means not having to overpay for a back.

The incumbents

There are two ways of acquiring a talented running back without breaking the bank: drafting one, or picking one off the scrap heap (as either a veteran, or an undrafted rookie, ala Foster).

Denver has already gone both routes in the past two offseasons:

They paid Willis McGahee $3M last year and owe him just $1M for this season. The balance of his contract will pay him $4.5M over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but of course, none of these figures are guaranteed.

In April, they drafted Ronnie Hillman in the third round (67th overall) and will pay him $3M over four seasons.

That's a maximum of $8.5M for three years of McGahee and four years' worth of Hillman.

We've been saying since the very beginning that Hillman was likely not drafted to be a change-of-pace or scat-type back. And as Ted explained just days after the Manning signing, there are very few substitutions in the offense Peyton ran in Indy and that we expect to see in Denver. This is especially true for the running back, who tends to play an entire series at a time.

Hillman is often labeled a scatback, presumably due to his slight stature - he's listed at 5-9. Of course, that's two inches taller than Jones-Drew's 5-7 listing. Additionally, Hillman bulked up to 200 lbs. prior to the draft, which places him just ten pounds lighter than MJD.

Granted, a hamstring injury has prevented Hillman from playing in either of Denver's first two preseason games, and this is undoubtedly contributing to the hubbub envisioning an MJD/Broncos union.

But Ronnie's back on the practice field, and we may get a glimpse of the soon-to-be 21-year-old as early as Sunday afternoon against San Francisco.

How about we see what Denver's got in Hillman before pondering a move for another back?

Unless, of course, Jones-Drew decides he's willing to play out his contract, but not in Jacksonville.

Yeah, didn't think so.

Do you think the Broncos should pursue a trade for Maurice Jones-Drew?

Yes

No

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

Oakland said to be interested in Geno Smith; LOLJets may pursue Brady Quinn; Cassel to Cards seen as likelihood; Kelsay retiring; Giants re-sign Beatty

Great discussion! I find very valid points on either side and think I will be happy with whatever takes place.

I also have to add that one reason I might not like the trade would be a reminder of the Tebow era. Seeing MJD for some reason makes me think WWMJDD -> WWTTD -> WWJD

Random thought of the day :)

Posted by Bronco_JJ on 2012-08-23 15:40:26

John Hilton I agree this team is not overflowing with talent but there is potential for those needs to be filled with players currently on the roster and the future drafts will be needed to continue stocking up the talent. The more players on the roster such as Franklin, Walton, Beadles, Moore, Carter, Trevathan, Irving, D Thomas, E Decker, J Thomas, Green, Wolfe, Bolden that can step up and become starters the closer they are to that Super Bowl team. The fewer who do this then the closer they are to a rebuild. What I hope, and I think JE hopes, is that Manning through his play and influence on teams and games can help their developments and either next year or the year after really challenge for a Super Bowl because those young players have all become starters.If those guys do step up a player there will still be a few needs which a few FAs and top draft picks can fill. If they sign MJD to a big contract and take away draft picks then they cant fill those needs as well as they could. If those guys dont step up then those top draft picks are crucial to the rebuild and are needed.With regards to Clady I think he is better than average he is just not elite like Long or Thomas. It appears to me the difference is he wants to be paid elite where the Broncos want to pay him like a top 10 OT which is what I think he is.

Posted by Steve Williams on 2012-08-23 03:50:00

Taking the counterpoint, I sometimes like when people make jokes like that and I am unlikely to judge a person's relative horribleness, creativity or intellectual relevance vis a vis the world based on such scant information over the internet. Those individuals do not earn a place on my retarded people list (even if I chose to tabulate such an insensitively named list) and they should not go away, but stick around, perhaps to offer further subjectively clever bon mot.

Posted by Yahmule on 2012-08-23 02:30:41

Also while I'm on the subject of being annoyed on someone elses's behalf, I'd just like to say that anyone that thinks they're clever by making a pun joke like "NoGain Moreno HA HA HA!!" will permanently earn a place on my retarded people list. I don't even care if you're right, if I could live the rest of my life without uncreative pun jokes being bandied about I'd be a happy person. If you attempt to make that joke, even ironically, you are a horrible person. There is no grey area here. Its not that I even really care about the player (I don't -- his "sauced" license plate generally makes me think he's not the smartest of folks), but seriously, if all you have to offer the world is "HAHA HIS NAME SOUNDS LIKE SOMETHING ELSE THATS SORT OF INSULTING", then you have nothing of intellectual relevance to offer the world, and you should just go away.

Posted by Ian Overgard on 2012-08-23 01:31:02

The thing that strikes me is that RB isn't really a position of scarcity at the moment. I like MJD quite a bit, but it just doesn't really strike me as a need. As a bit of a pessimist, I'm not really convinced that willis will have such an impressive repeat performance at his age, but I'm also not as down on the backups as some are.

Also, I sort of think people have given up on Knowshon a bit too soon. I mean he hasn't been brilliant, but he hasn't been terrible either, and the level of vitriol towards the guy seems excessive. If he'd been a 4th round pick we'd probably be excited as hell about him; but for whatever reasons we saddle people our own expectations based on their draft status. The way I see it, draft position is just a sunk cost, you have to move past that (or seek a job at the denver post).

Posted by Ian Overgard on 2012-08-23 01:18:46

Two other points I think are indicated.1. PM agreed to come to Denver, not because he was led to believe that the Superbowl was assured in 2013. Rather he became convinced that Denver's roster development would mirror his own. Year one was rehabilitation for him, both phsysically and in terms of familiarity with the system that would make a viable superbowl team. Year two would demonstrate the strides that had been made on two levels - PM's comfort with the winable system, and the development of the players who would be crucial to the push to the top.

2. PM is part of both a short term and a long term plan. In the short term-the last two drafts and FA pickups have put in place a viably competitive team.

Already noticeable improvements are apparent in almost every area.

The defense is most apparent. Wolfe, Unrein, Warren and Jackson show more talent and more potential than I've seen for some time. Mix them with Banna Vickerson, Dumervil and Ayers, and the injury to Hunter will not be especially significant. A legendary NT would be nice; but is probably a fantasy and certainly not a necessity (but I'll continue to dream). Von, Nate, Wes, and Joe are not a bad LB core (especially considering the changing role of LBs). Unless I'm missing something, adding two or three (unlikely) from the group of Trevathan, Mohamed, Franklin, Johnson, Blatnick and Coffey will not be especially difficult. In fact, the greatest difficulty will probably come from trying to decide who and where (PS?)At S, Rahim Moore, Quinton Carter, and Bruton already show, IMO, already show noticeably improved levels of play. I frankly like what I see. Leonhard, whom I really like, will IMO have difficulty making the final 53.

The offense is not improved so graphically, but noticeable nevertheless. QB - to go from Orton, Tebow, Weber to PM, Os, Weber is like like leaving a bath of excrement to one of perfume.RBs - here the changes are more subtle, because the most noticeable changes are the addition of Hillman and a healthy (hopefully) Moreno. Most important here is that the change in emphasis and schemes will make all of the backs defined in changed roles. Whether it is McGhahee, Hillman, Ball & Moreno or Johnsonn and Omon in one of the four spots, each has noticeable skills in running, blocking and receiving. And, given the expected use of "no huddle" all will figure into the evolving of the offense (IMO MJD will add some to what is already available, but not enough to excite me or to warrant a "Featured Back" salaray).TE has always been a "thing in progress" in Denver, but so far I like what I see.The OL is where the most discussion could and will take place.Currently, a high profile FA would be welcome. But, in the forseeable future (perhaps this year; certainly next) at least one of the curent roster will emerge as a quality player (probably Blake). I also think that one of the rest will separate themselves from the 'herd". I don't know which one (though I have me suspicions).

In any event, by next years draft, we'll be filling depth spots that will mostly look to the future, when after one of two superbowls with PM, we'll be expecting a couple from Osweiller.

Posted by ivanthenotsobad on 2012-08-22 23:07:48

Head of nail... meet hammer.

Posted by Cain Mahan on 2012-08-22 22:12:48

I guess the main point I am trying to make is that is not that we need MJD. The point is that Denver has a small window to take advantage of the Manning signing. There are too many teams with superior talent at most positions around the league right now (SF, NYG, PITT, NE, GB, BAL, HOU, DALL, DET, NO, ATL, KC) compared to the Broncos to just say Brock can take over when Manning retires. If you are not trying to win it all, then why sign Manning at all? He takes up 18 million in cap space, assures that Denver will not be able to draft Matt Barkley and requires a new offensive system to be put in place. Like I said before, you can't be a little bit pregnant, and Denver's other moves this offseason were confused as to what the goal of the season was.

Posted by John Hilton on 2012-08-22 22:06:52

Sorry, I don't have a lot of time to respond right now, but if Denver needs a MLB, RT, NT, S and TE to become a solid club, then yes, Denver is facing a full rebuild once Manning is done. This is because in addition to those positions, a replacement for Champ, Peyton and perhaps Dumervil (for an undersized speed player, age is the worst thing in the world) will need to be found. That's a lot. In addition, if you exclude Bailey, Manning and Miller, are there any other players on the team that one would consider to be the top of their position (and two of these three are old)? Stats suggest Clady has been average since his rookie year and Denver's contract offer suggests they agree with this assessment. Many teams have superior receiving corps. This team is not overflowing with talent. The only way they break 10 wins is if Manning plays lights out.

Posted by John Hilton on 2012-08-22 22:00:08

Good discussion.I'm finding myself more in tune with Doug and Doc than the "quick fixers".

Over the years, I've developed the opinion that drafting high or signing expensive FAs is prudent in some cases and wasteful in others.

It is largely wasteful in the case of WRs and RBs (they're a dime a dozen up and down the draft classes and FA crops, usually are too expensive, and seldom tranlate into automatic winners, though often into disruptive egos).

It is largely prudent in the case of QB, DL, OL, and sometimes CB (even occasionally S). These are IMO skill positions that matter for wins and for the longer period of time.

In the case of LBs, since nickels and dimes are becoming more prevelant than base defenses, their importance in the ultimate scheme of things is under review, restructuring and modification. It is becoming clear, IMO, that LBs need to be discussed more in relation to DBs than in relation to DL, which is, for some, a traumatic re-evaluation. With regard to LBs, flexibility, is the mantra.

I don't disagree that MJD is a nice running back. He's more important for the Jacquars than he would be for the Broncos, since their QB situation (in fact, entire offense) makes him more central to their game.

In the envisioned Bronco offense, he would be rotational (which is what the current group of RBs will be, whoever makes the roster). MJD would be a load like McGahee, though lesser so, with slightly more elusiveness, and somewhat better skills as a receiver.He wants to be paid as the featured back, something that doesn't seem to fit well in the envisioned scheme of things for the Broncos (increasingly for most of the NFL). "Featured RBs" may be an anachronism.

Personally, if an elite OL RT (or LT) became available (around the same age), even for somewhat near the same money talked about for MJD, I'd be more excited if the Broncos showed interest.

Posted by ivanthenotsobad on 2012-08-22 21:58:55

Sounds like Fantasy Football thinking. But we're talking about real football, where offensive lines not only exist, but actually matter.

By the 'how many TDs' logic, I guess it would follow that since Champ didn't score TDs either, he must not be important. So cut Champ to make room for MJD.

Posted by A R on 2012-08-22 21:09:05

Did Ryan Clady or MJD help their team to a playoff game last season?

One's yes, one's no. I forget which....Rhett, help me out on that....

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-08-22 21:02:22

How many touchdowns did Clady score last year? The over under is 1.... I'll take the under.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2012-08-22 20:39:55

AR already brought up Clady. Let's not forget that Eric Decker isn't collecting a lot of money on his current deal and, if he blossoms this year, then there's another guy the Broncos might think about signing for the long term. Doc has already mentioned Tracy Porter, who the Broncos might give a long-term deal if he has a big impact this season. What happens if J.D. Walton makes strides, as he seems to be doing in the preseason?

One has to remember there are a lot of pieces that go into the puzzle of building a championship team and the trick is to figure out exactly how you are going to build that team. We have to remember that a major reason the Broncos pursued Peyton Manning was not just because he'd be a key piece of the puzzle that is the push for a Lombardi trophy, but also because the other option was sticking it out with you-know-who and hoping he might develop the way you expect him to, all while dealing with that player's rabid fanbase.

This isn't the case with MJD. No Bronco fans are up in arms about the production of Willis McGahee and no Bronco fans have really seen what Ronnie Hillman can do a in pro game. Wanting MJD isn't the same as wanting Peyton to replace you-know-who because you have good production already in the position in question and said players aren't ones that are the constant focus of media attention and have a fanbase that hinges on everything the player does.

True, MJD doesn't have that following, either, but since the RBs already around don't have that following, the incentive to replace them just isn't there.

And I think those who believe MJD will take a discount to play for a contender are clinging to a pipe dream. Ray Rice plays for a playoff contender and he hinted at a holdout at one point. Matt Forte plays for a team that expects to get to the playoffs and he hinted at a holdout. Arian Foster certainly wanted to get paid handsomely and his team is a playoff contender. Marshawn Lynch may have played for a team that got to the playoffs in a weak division two seasons ago, but that team got a first-round win thanks in large part to him, and I would say Lynch's team expects to make that playoff push this year after having made additional moves the past two seasons. And all these guys on playoff teams got big contracts with a lot of guaranteed money.

Do you really think that MJD is going to take a discount to play for a playoff contender when he sees RBs on likely or hopeful playoff contenders getting a lot of guaranteed money?

Posted by Bob on 2012-08-22 19:29:11

In addition to the monetary side, which Doug has laid out well, I'd like to address the two assumptions that the 'for' side has brought up.

1. MJD is the piece that will get the Broncos to a Super Bowl2. After Manning leaves, it's a full-blown rebuilding process anyway.

I don't think either is close to provable. Both are misleading, at the least.

Point 1. Where is any evidence that MJD will get the Broncos to a SB?

Did Denver have a weak running game last year? Do we know what Hillman can do? Has Manning required a top RB to get to the SB? Has MJD gotten the Jags deep into the playoffs?

With the answer to those four being 'no', why is it a supposed given that bringing in Drew and his contract will push the Broncos to the SB?

Point 2. JE has been working on creating a team that won't tank and require a full rebuild when Manning leaves.

Whether or not Wait-a-weiler is going to be a great QB or even ready is something that no one knows - We could see a different QB there, and I don't discount the importance of a top QB. But equally, no QB every gets there without a decent team around him in modern football. Denver has been building through the draft and JE himself said that this is at least a three year rebuild. We're in the second year. Maybe they make the deep playoffs this year, maybe not. Maybe they need to fill a couple next year, and require the finances and/or draft options to do so. They have filled a lot of holes in a short time and still have some holes that still need filling to prevent the need to revamp the team all over again - and they won't be able to do so, if you dump that money (and draft choices) on MJD.

MJD costs Denver the ability to add the MLB, RT, NT, S and TE that the Broncos need to have a solid club. Moves like this one will only ensure that the Broncos will NEED a full-blown rebuild soon - it's the kind of short term only, expensive approach that's typical of the moves that haven't worked for teams around the league with the 'only one piece missing' philosophy - the one that failed so well with Mike Shanahan.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-08-22 19:04:32

"Once Manning goes downhill, this will be a full-blown rebuilding project."

Um, no. There's a lot of good, young talent on the team. Some positions still need more depth/upgrades. But its not an aging roster. Nor is it a roster likely to suffer attrition to free agency.

The end of Manning's career means replacing the QB. Not rebuilding the whole team.

Posted by A R on 2012-08-22 18:01:47

Excellent point, A R - Clady's salary will go from $3.5M this year to a likely franchise-tag value of around $9.6M in 2013. This isn't baseball, and the Broncos are not the Yankees, much as Sacco would like to think so.

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-08-22 18:00:49

Good call Christian. You've covered my arguments for MJD.

Posted by sadaraine on 2012-08-22 17:56:28

Trade for MJD and give him the contract he wants

OR

re-sign Clady?

Posted by A R on 2012-08-22 17:54:22

I get that there's something romantic about "going for it," and putting all your chips in sounds great.

But there are real costs involved. There is no such thing as trading for a guy like MJD and getting a discount or an incentive-laden deal.

We're talking about a contract with an average annual value of around $10M, and at least $20M guaranteed. That means sinking 1/4 of your salary cap into your QB and RB. Think five years, $50M.

This alone sounds like a bad idea, and it also assumes the Broncos can afford the cash. But if they could, in fact, swing an extra $10M in salary and cap, is RB really the place to spend that money?

I would suggest, quite strongly, that the answer is no.

Give me $10M per year to add to the Denver payroll, and I'll be using that to acquire a top safety and middle linebacker, and/or a right tackle so we can kick Franklin inside. Defensive tackle and punt returner would also come ahead of upgrading at RB, for my money.

Posted by Douglas Lee on 2012-08-22 17:45:01

I'd think an even bigger impact to this team would be to snare a top-notch, experienced WR. If Decker and Thomas are good enough for this system to get to the SB with a pass game like Manning's, McGahee is definitely good enough not to warrant big bucks for the run game. I'd rather see the Broncos dump big coin on that WR, if you want SB now.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-08-22 17:26:41

Jeepers Creepers. I been saying the same thing for months, and I'm the local heretic.

Denver pulls the biggest UFA coup in history and drafts and engages in UFA like its just year one of a three year rebuild.

My mind remains boggled.

Posted by drewthorn on 2012-08-22 17:14:58

I would like to play devil's advocate. I think trading for MJD may not actually be a bad idea.

The window for Denver is small. Manning has 2-3 years left; it is not reasonable to assume he is going to perform at a high level beyond yet. It may not be reasonable to assume that Manning will perform at a high level this year. He is 36 years old, not 21, and the whole team needs to adapt to his style. Once Manning goes downhill, this will be a full-blown rebuilding project. Therefore, you need to try and cash in while you can. Get as much elite talent on the team as you can acquire and let the chips fall where they may. You can't be a little bit pregnant. The team gambled the house on Manning and now needs to maximize that bet.

Posted by John Hilton on 2012-08-22 17:10:15

When you have Lance Ball as your primary backup and Glyn Mil- er, Ronnie Hillman to sweep up, you wouldn't want to get all crazy and extravagant shoring that stuff up. Especially not with a 36 year old QB handing off to oft injured 30+ starter.

I mean, that's just crazy talk.

Posted by drewthorn on 2012-08-22 16:47:44

Probably not and think you realize the Hall of Fame cornerback comment was tongue in cheek, but I would have settled for less than Bailey in the Portis deal, too. Running backs are like bars of soap. The more you use them, the quicker they wear out. That's why you should run them like there's no tomorrow, then let some other team deal with their demands for financial security.

Posted by Yahmule on 2012-08-22 16:33:01

Let's be clear, if this is a trade, we probably have to part with a 1st round pick. Again, I am fine with that. That is what you use 1st round picks for....to get players who get you to Super Bowls. Again, within reason, cost is not a factor here. We need to have all hands on deck to pursue a SB over the next 3 years.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2012-08-22 16:28:27

There is value. The Giants have won two championships with a platoon of hard-nosed, hard-running tailbacks and a tough defense. Pairing MJD and Willis together sounds awfully nice, and they really compliment each other well.

Giving each one a rest during games would keep each of them fresher and ready to pile up yardage and scores.

Plus, with MJD, you've got the added benefit of his ability catching the ball out of the backfield, something our backs (with the exception of Knowshow So Slow Moreno and maybe Hillman, if we ever get a friggin' look at him) don't really display. That's a big component of a Manning-run offense.

Kick the tires. If they'd take Knowshon + a 3 + a conditional 4 or 5 based on playing time, I make that move in a cocaine heartbeat. I believe Marshall Faulk was had for a third back in the day...

And see what MJD would want from a Super Bowl-contender with a Hall of Fame QB keeping pressure out of the box. He may well be willing to take a discounted price (or an incentive-laden contract) to play for a contender in Denver.

And the question you must ask: Does MJD make Denver a better team? I vote that he does. Especially if we can get him for a proverbial song (though I'm not in support of trading a first for him, I would trade a late second), as I posted on my blog this morning.

Posted by Sam on 2012-08-22 16:16:03

Think I am summarizing another post....

We have a three-ish year window with Manning. MJD is a top-flite RB.

If we spend a lot of money and spend high draft picks to take the best crack at winning an SB in those three years then so be it.

If possible, Elway should aggresively pursue MJD.

All you other bean counters can enjoy your first round playoff exits with a tidy cap number.

I'll take a Super Bowl win, thanks.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2012-08-22 16:08:16

The arguments that MJD is young enough, runs well enough and receives well enough to be a valuable and interesting addition. Why aren't I for it? The arguments here in favor of him are very good (although Fan, I'm not familiar with the bricklayer/gladiator analogy).

The Broncos, as improved as they are, want to build through the draft. RBs, statistically, tend to be relatively fungible. You have two main problems with bringing MJD on - losing the value of the draft pick(s) and monetary cost.

The draft is a crapshoot, so I can see the MJD value in that area. I believe that JE and Co. will prefer the picks in hand, though, since the team has done well at turning them into more picks in the recent drafts. The team also believes in Hillman's upside - he's is listed at 1 inch greater in height and 5 lb less in weight than MJD by http://www.pro-football-refere..., so physically there's a similarity. I loved his college work, and saw a lot of it. There's also the value of McGahee, who has low miles and has been a stud for Denver.

Monetarily, the contract issue isn't just about this year. It's a financial hit in each of the next three or four years that will reduce the team's ability to improve in other key areas. The OL needs attention at T and G/C. Tracy Porter is on a one year contract and has to improve or the CBs will need another upgrade. Dray Florence is 31. Champ is ageless. TE is OK, but only two of them have a solid track record (w/o a suspension). The DL still needs an upgrade at DT (again) - Bannan won't last forever, Siliga is a maybe, etc. A top NT is needed.

You can't put stars in everywhere. Although I think that MJD might be an upgrade at RB (might, since we haven't seen Hillman in the pros and while McGahee won't last forever, he could last for 2-3 more years), but in balancing expense to level of team upgrade, I'm not seeing the level of value that such a deal would need to bring.

Great discussion, btw. Good points on both sides.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-08-22 15:57:17

I think the premise by many of us is that he'll be asking for big dollars...around $10M a year. And, that doesn't include the possibility of having to give up a draft pick. At that point, I'd argue it isn't worth the cost, especially that McGahee is healthy, put up some solid numbers last year (like another pointed out, he averaged more than MJD), looks darn good at this point, and has proven that he's willing to deliver.

Now, if MJD is willing to come here for not much, it might be worth considering.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-08-22 15:54:19

Yeah. Kick the tires. See what MJD wants, see what the Jags want for him. Never hurts to investigate.

Posted by Myron Giddings Jr on 2012-08-22 15:51:47

We'll never see another deal like Portis for Bailey.

Posted by Myron Giddings Jr on 2012-08-22 15:48:36

I've thought about this a lot. Initially, I was very much against it. Why mortgage the future for a back with high mileage? He only has a few more productive years left and his contract will be a big hit for the foreseeable future. After all, teams that have continued success build from the draft, right?

Right. Kind of.

Elway is a different type of VP. Within a year we've gone from a young, talent bereft team to a potential contender. We've drafted well so far - from the 2011 draft we're looking at FIVE potential starters alone: Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, Von Miller, Quinton Carter, and Chris Harris (starting nickel, I believe?).

Those are tremendous returns. So far, it seems we'll have at least one starter from this draft as well, and beyond that we have several players competing for roles outside of special teams.

The point? Elway does know how to build for the future and with Xanders exit, we can wager that is was a combination of Elway and the scouts pulling the strings come draft day.

So how does this factor into making a move for MJD?

With the future well accounted for, it makes sense for the Broncos to make a bold move now to put another Lombardi in the case. Will MJD guarantee that? No. There are no guarantees in the NFL, but does it help? Absolutely.

A tandem of, perhaps, the best running back in the NFL and the newly revitalized but oft worn down McGahee would work wonders in pacing Manning's throws throughout the season. MJD is a proven commodity - he's done it year in and year out for a bad team with little pass game to take the burden off of his shoulders. Splitting his carries with McGahee would keep both of their legs fresh for a long postseason run, something he's not had the benefit of since his introduction into the league.

The formula has been done before. Elway, while largely carrying the Broncos on his shoulders to the Superbowl still needed TD to finish the job and you cannot ignore that John Elway isn't recalling that same fact.

MJD will be pricey. He will cost draft picks and cap space. Yet, the name of the game is to win Superbowls and the goal of any VP or GM is to put as much talent on the field as possible to do so. I'm confident that the Broncos can draft their way around a few less picks for a year to ease the transition into the post Manning years, but while he's here, while Manning is still throwing darts into double coverage, I him to have the best shot of winning a Superbowl possible. If Denver wins back to back Superbowls, would you really care at what the cap looks like? Would you really care about the prospect you missed out on?

The answer is no. Bring me MJD.

Posted by Christian LeBrilla on 2012-08-22 15:28:10

I have to disagree with the analysis here. Which doesn't mean I think we should break the bank for him, just that it's worth pursuing.

1st a lot of it depends on the amount that he's asking, and the Jags are asking for him. Perhaps he'd take a discount to play with a super bowl contender as opposed to Blaine Gabbert. Some of it also has to be personal after Kahn's comments.

Next understanding how substitutions are going to work in the Manning led offense makes him more valuable to us rather than less so. It's the brick layer versus gladiator problem.

Take a look here http://www.advancednflstats.co... it just gets worse for us if we are not platooning the Running Backs. There are just fewer RBs out there who can excel if they are in for the whole series. So we are automatically cutting out part of the supply which is going to raise the price.

Next we really shouldn't play passing and rushing attacks off against each other. You still are going to need a balanced offense to keep the defense honest. (especially with our O-line) You're still going to need a running game to keep the lead. Not to mention the package plays article that you linked to in this mornings excellent lard.

MJD is also in a pretty good situation as far as work load goes. He split the load early on, and he's only 27. If you assume that most contracts are only three years anyway, then that times in pretty well with when RBs usually begin to decline. He doesn't have to be Curtis Martin to make a fair to both sides contract worth it, he just has to be average.

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2012-08-22 15:09:05

Although the prospect of pairing MJD with PMFM was enticing at first, it doesn't make sense financially, or for any other reason for that matter. Doug does a fantastic job of explaining why that's the case.

One stat that's worth considering: 1,966 -- McGahee's career touches. Even though he's been in the league three more years than MJD, he has only 140 more touches, or about one season of part-time work.

I do have my doubts about whether Hillman can ever be a full-time, workhorse-type back, but trading for MJD and giving him a big, ol' contract isn't the answer.

Posted by Royalwithcheese on 2012-08-22 14:57:04

I would never want to pay a lot for a veteran running back. My philosophy with running backs is pretty callous. Draft them and work the hell out of them early. Trade them (preferably for a Hall of Fame cornerback) if they start asking for a lot of money.

Posted by Yahmule on 2012-08-22 14:40:52

Last year MJD gained 4.7 ypc working against stacked boxes due to an inept passer. Last year Willis McGahee gained 4.8 ypc working against stacked boxes due to an inept passer.

Posted by ohiobronco on 2012-08-22 14:38:33

I wouldn't like the move. For this type of offense, and for the present state of this team, that kind of money isn't worth the payoff nor the risk. Denverkewl brings up a great point about McGahee.

Posted by John Tomasik on 2012-08-22 14:26:03

Someone once said thataRB's third contract, if he had outperformed his 1st+ext/2nd, was more about payback than future value. Maybe that was rationalization in the wake of TD's injury; I don't recall. You can certainly make the case that a perennially competitive organization has no room for such sentiments. Still, it seems often to fit the facts in practice, if not in intent.

That said, I'd prefer not to be the team that makes up for the past deficits in MJD's contract.

Posted by MakeCents02 on 2012-08-22 14:25:38

One more thing on MJD: sounds to me like he got really bad agent advice. He had the option to ask for back loaded incentives when he first signed his deal - didnt happen...eg if he performs in top 5 then he gets x or whatever...besides, $5 million aint enough?

Posted by denverkewl on 2012-08-22 14:24:12

Whatever Kliss reports about this whenever he does, we can be sure the opposite is happening....the only other issue you didnt mention was the precedent regarding encouraging a hold out...does Elway wanna send that message? Will MJD do it again...to us? McGahee made 1200 yds and asked for more $$ ... was told no and he is still here working his butt off...maybe I'm missing something but why do folks throw him under the bus after the year he HAD against 8 in the box? To me he earned this shot...so why change with a guy who doesnt honor his deal...

Posted by denverkewl on 2012-08-22 14:17:22

Excellent analysis. The cost of getting and keeping someone of that quality is far too high. Now if only the Broncos still had a trading chip that Jacksonville showed some interest in....

Posted by Mike Birtwistle on 2012-08-22 14:13:13

Doug, Excellent analysis. I agree, wee need to see what we have in Hillman and MJD is close to hitting the age of diminishing returns for a running back.