Man, I was in Muskegon all weekend watching 13U and 14U baseball. I just took a look at CNS’s, etc. comments in the other thread. Good times!

Accipiter

Did you add any comments ?

laaarmer

No. Even I know not to argue with people who know they are right.
Edit:
Which is why I win all the arguments

1benmenno

It’s about the gumballs. How many you got?

laaarmer

Not Chico is the gumball king of Chicago. I have a bet with cliff that Saad will not play top 6 minutes. It’s for a 40 of malt liquor. I’m pretty sure I already won, but he’ll never admit it. he’ll come up with some cockamamy reason the 3rd line is actually the 2nd, etc., all base on Dick Corsi.

/clifftroll’d

cliffkoroll

* cockamamie

laaarmer

You are too easy.
From Miriam
Definition of COCKAMAMY : ridiculous, incredible
of all the cockamamy excuses I ever heard
Potatoe

1benmenno

/Shaking my head like Don Knotts

lizmcneill

did you make that bet before last season?

cliffkoroll

Actually, I did admit it in the same thread it came up in, once it occurred to me that, with his shiny new contract, Bickell HAS TO be in the top-6. Sorry, Saad.

So, for me, I can only win if Bickell finds Q’s doghouse. I don’t expect this. I expect Bickell to earn his contract this year, put his feet up for some portion of years 2 and 3, and come on like gangbusters in year 4.

laaarmer

cliff, I’m only poking at you. I;d be happy to pay the 40, if Saad becomes a force with Hossa or some other.

If Kruger or Shaw is playing on some sort of checking line, Saad will definitely be disruptive to opponents on that line and would be a threat to score, possibly. On some teams Bickell Shaw Saad would be a top 6 line.

cliffkoroll

What’s with this “I’m only poking at you.”? Don’t be going soft/Canadian/passive-aggressive on me now.

Poke away, gloves off, no apologies- I can take it.

You will likely win this bet. On a technicality. Although, as I think on it, if Hossa and/or Sharp are down for a stretch, Saad would be first in line there too, right?

I concede nothing at this point.

laaarmer

Technicality?
He wll either play with Kane, Toews, Sharp, Hossa, etc. Or he will not.
Another complication will be the signing of Mason Raymond.

cliffkoroll

Yes. That’s the bet. I acknowledge it. Cut-and-dried.

IIRC, though, you started this argument by suggesting Saad was not ‘top-6 worthy’, which is crazy talk, as I think you admit above.

laaarmer

He is right now a top 6 on most teams. I do not think he will be for long. To me, he plays out of control. For example, if we used the “turnover” stat I mention above he will be among the team leaders. But so would Kane, so there is that.

1benmenno

Let me get this straight. Cliffkoroll is a Chicagoan. Laaamer, if that’s his real name, is from a place slightly north thereof.

I’m so miffed I just stomped my feet. And there are people downstairs! Now that’s some anger. Watch your comments, bastard people.

lizmcneill

Or if he’s filling in for injuries. He’ll look really good either bum-slaying with Shaw or checking with Frogger though. He has the work ethic, flexibility and defensive responsibility of Fro with a nice side of actually being able to get the puck on the net when it’s not a penalty shot.

Oregon_hawk

Is this saad you’re talking about?

Him on the third line he’s going to be demolishing some poor bastard every other shift. Watching him forecheck is so much fun.

I think Bicks might have more upside on the top 6 LW than Saad does, just because of his ability to cause problems in front of the crease.

Saad strikes me more as a in-transition force, Bicks is better once zone presence is established.

not to say that Bick’s isn’t a good backchecker, as his tenure in the Rat Pack shows.

lizmcneill

Yep, tis the Manchild. I think he’s going to be really nice wherever he gets to play. He’s 20 years old and his game is already so good in both ends. And he’s a little Toews for seriousness, he’ll work hard.

1benmenno

These are really, really good times. My bartender, a Bruins fan, told me how to shut up the annoying Penguins fan in the bar: Hold up two fingers. Not for two cups in four years. Not for two goals in 17 seconds. For two goals in four games against the Bruins. (Odd, I know. But he is my bartender. And this put him in a good mood.)

laaarmer

I am impressed that you have your own bartender. I make my own drinks.

1benmenno

Look, just because I make him wear skin-tight rubber and live in a box doesn’t make it weird

laaarmer

Do you own a chopper?

Z-man19

Dixie?

Preacher

Bring out the Gimp.

Accipiter

Such as the Bobby Ryan.

laaarmer

I may have one of those this evening

Z-man19

You ok about your Guy being gone?

laaarmer

I don’t know. I was not paying attention, where is he?

Z-man19

Montreal, signed a 2 way

laaarmer

On July 6, 2013, St. Pierre regained a NHL contract as a free agent, signing a one-year two-way deal with the Montreal Canadiens

Good spot for him.

lizmcneill

I want him signed before all the UFAs are gone and someone gets an idea to offer-sheet him.

Then we can all rosterbate by moving Hogs up and down I-90 to save our 1M of remaining cap, or trading Carcillo.

neo1978

Wouldn’t worry about it. Much more appealing targets on the list for somebody to be looking at him.

Teuvo Teravainen, the Hawks’ 2012 No. 1 pick, will not attend the
camp. He will be training with Finland’s Under-20 national team in
August, so to limit the back-and-forth flying he will not be in Chicago
this week.

laaarmer

He’s afraid of Pirri

Joe Banks

Thanks everyone, I was wondering why the heck he wasn’t here…
Just paranoid I guess… sniff. I mean, we’ve had so much trouble holding onto our Finns…

neo1978

Teravainen training w/ U-20 Finland team in NY in Aug. So to minimize trips back & forth from home, he's not at #Blackhawks camp this week.— Tracey Myers (@TramyersCSN) July 7, 2013

robondacob

All this talk of advanced stats got me thinking about how useless the hits stat is. Then I got an idea of how to improve it, or at least make it less subjective. A “hit” should be counted when a player, who has the puck, is checked and loses possession of the puck to the other team. This could be useful in determining who the good forecheckers of the league are and would give some recognition to the frolik’s of the hockey world.

The takeaway stat might already count this situation, but the term “takeaway” is pretty broad in itself, so distinguishing a “hit” from a “takeaway” could be useful when trying to determine the usefulness of bottom-6/checking line players.

Another idea I had was to specify which zone the takeaway/hit occurs in. A takeaway in the offensive zone is often done on the forecheck, a takeaway in the neutral zone could be an indicator of backchecking effectiveness, and a takeaway in the defensive zone is an indicator of good defensive skills, which would help to make the Selke and Norris trophies more legitimate.

Preacher

But…but…but hits win games! Look at the mighty Bruins! And Scum, Jr. And the Kings. They totally owned the Hawks with their mighty hit stats.

Oregon_hawk

These things are all really squishy – and subjective, which is more of the main problem.

hits, as they are recorded, are obviously majorly flawed.

“last player to touch before turnover” or “first player to touch” or “turnovers while on ice” could just abstract away the method of checking (stick or body – what does it matter if it turns the puck over?) and focus on possession, which is the important part.

All hard to keep track of. Plus, advanced stats mostly seem to be based on things that are recorded by NHL scorekeepers already – players on ice, shots on net, misses, blocked shots, etc.

laaarmer

Instead of takeaways and giveaways, the stat should be turnovers.

If one team has possession and either by hit or some other means, the possession goes to the other team, it is a turnover. We chart this by player number and spot on the ice. There is some subjectivity, for example, a pass up the boards from a D to a forward in the D zone that is not handled by the forward is a turnover, but which player? Still the turnover stat is good for the team

cliffkoroll

Hits is not a useless stat- it’s a stat of limited value that is wildly prone to misinterpretation.

One of the most important attributes of a team that hits a lot is that it induces jittery, panicky responses. So the ‘fruit’ of a hitting strategy may be reaped on a play involving only ‘the threat of being hit’.

I’m ok with this. The point of hockey is not to make life easy on statheads.

zacked

I agree with the last sentence, but not the rest. “Hits”, the stat, are almost entirely without meaning. Hits, the physical reality, sometimes have a big impact on the game.

cliffkoroll

I disagree. Last year, Toronto was credited with 1626 hits. The Kings were credited with 1446.

At the other end, Detroit was credited with 865 hits, the Hawks with 840.

This data alone tells me something about these four teams. I don’t see this as ‘almost entirely without meaning.’

Like I said, handle with care. Maybe the Toronto and LA official scorer ‘counts’ more hits (Toronto registered 56% of hits in home games, versus a league average of 52%, LA 58%. OTOH, Detroit and Chicago registered 58% and 63% of hits at home, so…)

Also, we all know that possession teams have fewer hits- this is the Hawks’ and Wings’ stories. So, this is important context. But LA was a good possession team too, so…

1benmenno

So there is no reliable hit stat data?

cliffkoroll

“it’s a stat of limited value that is wildly prone to misinterpretation.”

1benmenno

So if laaarmer were to hit you or you laaarmer, one couldn’t really predict the results

Accipiter

If the hit was a head shot, no definitely not.

laaarmer

are you threatening me?

Accipiter

We accidentally replaced your heart with a baked potato. You have about three seconds to live.

laaarmer

twice baked? I like twice baked potatoEs

cliffkoroll

All you know for sure is “Two men enter, one man leaves.”

laaarmer

If laaarmer were to hit me.

1benmenno

Don’t beat yourself up over this.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

It’s like total tackles in north American football. If your defense makes twice as many tackles at their defense, does that mean your defense is better, or that their offense dominated time of possession?

laaarmer

I don’t think it is anything like a tackle reference. Not even.

Oregon_hawk

I think everyone would agree that “a hit” can have impact, in the same way that “a faceoff” can have a significant impact.

That being said, I’m not sure how much meaning can be extracted from the hits stat. It seems wildly dependent on the scorer who is recording the hits, and the un-recorded meta-data around hits.

laaarmer

mmmmmm faceoffs…………

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

And is it any coincidence that puck possession teams have lower hit totals? You can’t go hit the other guy as often when you have control of the puck for most of the game. This is not a bad thing.

Individual Hits can be critical. Total hit stats are a joke.

laaarmer

Yes, the micro/macro argument. I love it. Keep going.

cliffkoroll

Wow. Devastating rebuttal!!

If only I had included something along the lines of:

“Also, we all know that possession teams have fewer hits- this is the Hawks’ and Wings’ stories.”

in my comment.

http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

I think they could tell us something of significance if there were a uniform way of measuring/counting. Right now, as it is, there’s too much flak. Home or away, which team is doing the counting. From the perspective of comparing teams, the numbers really can’t be relied on to tell you much more than what teams are most likely to lie at the extreme ends of things. It might tell you a little about the style of game a team plays, but it tells you next to nothing (accurately) about correlation to winning, because the numbers you’d use are at such variance (that’s obvious, I know).

I think that stat COULD be useful, but I don’t think it is as it’s currently measured.

red palace

It does give the meatheads something to put their minds to.

neo1978

The definition of the hit stat is “when a player forces an opposing player to lose the puck through physical contact.”

Problem is that it is never counted that way. Finishing your checks after the opponent already passed the puck is often counted as a hit.

Especially at home since the scorer works for the team and not the league. And in fact the difference in all the “real time” stats home and away make them all useless, imo.

Those stats would need to be counted based on their definitions by an independent observer before any of them have any point.

cliffkoroll

Here’s a question: was Toronto a physical team last year? I didn’t see any of their games this year, and I only have this one useless stat to go by, but something tells me the answer is ‘Yes’.

Do the Hawks have any physical players? I saw virtually every game, and, based on that, it seems to me that Bickell, Seabrook, and Shaw are the most physical players on the team. If only there was some non-useless stat I could use to support this view.

neo1978

Count all checks then. Hits are some random home team biased subset of all actual checks.

cliffkoroll

OK you’re a stats guy. What are the chances that a random number generator would spit out rankings for Bickell, Seabrook, and Shaw as 1, 2, and 3 on the team last year?

“it’s a stat of limited value that is wildly prone to misinterpretation.”

Let me share another morsel that I wrote specifically with you in mind:

“The point of hockey is not to make life easy on statheads.”

None of this is about what I want. What I definitely don’t want is some ‘fancy stat’ equivalent of hits. I’m fine with the hits stat the way it is- warts and all. I don’t see the need for additional granularity around this part of the game, which we all agree is not a major determinant of success anyway.

A well-calibrated eye test is better than any number of stats. But cognitive bias. So yeah, stats are a way of recalibrating the eye test, keeping one honest, as it were.

In this case, the hit stat more or less confirms my eye test when it comes to the Hawks. Plenty granular for me.

I don’t have a clue about Toronto’s game- didn’t see ’em all year. I have no eye test! But I see that they rang up 1626 hits last year. This tells me something.

I see no reason to budge from my original position here.

VerStig

Correct me if I’m wrong but I think Neo’s is just wishing for a useful micro stat for hits? And you’re just saying hits are a useful macro stat.

Truth is unless someone here has some pull with the NHL and how they do their scorekeeping, I think I’m going to have to pull whatever I can from the game reports they put up on NHL.com. Minus the hits, I guess, if it’s too difficult to de-bias them.

cliffkoroll

I don’t think additional analysis repays the effort here.

But to say a stat is useless is to say there is zero information there. That’s simply not true.

neo1978

The problem with arguing with you, Brian, is that I blow you out of the water and you still think you are winning.

Just know there isn’t a credible “stats guy” out there that pays any attention to hit stats. Saying that, I stand with Voltaire on your right to use hit stats any way you want.

cliffkoroll

The problem with arguing with you, Neo, is that your skin is thin to the point of translucence.

I forgot to downshift into “Neo kid gloves” mode for this conversation, so I knew you’d get all mad.

I have a lot of (unrequited) respect for you and your analysis. But you and stats- it’s a classic “to a man with a hammer, everything looks like a nail” story.

laaarmer

Away, I’d rather sail away

Like a swan that’s here and gone

A man gets tied up to the ground

He gives the world its saddest sound

Accipiter

If anything goes wrong, make a sound like a dying giraffe.

10thMountainFire

You MUST shut off the alarms! I fucking HATE GUARD DOGS!

cliffkoroll

I am just a poor boy
Though my story’s seldom told
I have squandered my resistance
For a pocket full of mumbles such are promises
All lies and jests
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest

laaarmer

mmm mmmm mmmm

red palace

When you hear someone yelling “Separate somebody from the puck!!”, that’s me.

VerStig

What if we were to count hits that have a takeaway (or giveaway? I wonder what is more common) immediately after them?

Oregon_hawk

Are takeaway’s and giveaway’s paired by NHL statkeepers?

VerStig

They’re not — they are different events. Sort of like winners and unforced errors in tennis.

Oregon_hawk

Its academic, since we can’t change NHL statkeeper practice, but if hits + change in possession was used, that’d be more interesting.

thats just pairing the turnover with the method that caused it, so you’d need to have one for pokechecks and such + turnovers…

laaarmer

See what cliff wrote. If a team is constantly running you, you will be less inclined to want the puck on your stick and will make a rash decision to get rid of it. Another way to say it in a cliche is you will hear footsteps. It is not the hit causing a change of possession, but will hopefully, for the team doing the hitting, the threat of the hit will also cause a turnover.

Oregon_hawk

This should be an observable effect. Very simply, do turnovers and hits-against correlate?

But, thats also confounded by at least one obvious metric – hits against rise as possession increases. One must have the puck to first turn it over – do turnovers rise as possession increases?

I will bet you a billion samolians that turnovers increase as possession increases. This is innate knowledge. Very similar to if I drink more liquid, I will pee more.

VerStig

If A then B?

If the ‘Hawks possess the puck more, they attempt more home run passes which get intercepted more?

laaarmer

Even thought that would be the case, that is not what I am saying.

Preacher

So how can I get HD quality copies of the Hawks’ playoff wins? I quit DVRing the games after we went down 3-1 to Scum and, well, I wasn’t going to change that routine since we kept winning. I’m using the (totally legal) UK site mentioned on here in the past, but the quality of some of the games is not the best. Anyone got our 16 wins on DVD that they want to “give” me for absolutely no profit whatsoever according to NHL rules?

laaarmer

What do we think the girl with the red fingernails is eating?

Oregon_hawk

I don’t know, but the combination of her face with Leddy’s is amazing.

cliffkoroll

Heh. I was just looking at that picture. All in all, those fans deserve credit for following the game, even the chick stuffing her face.

With hockey being over, I’ve fallen back on baseball. The slowness of the game is accentuated during the hockey/baseball transition.

Very little happens. So I amuse myself studying the lack of interest in the game expressed by the front row cake-eaters. It’s really appalling.

laaarmer

I watched the Angels Red Sox last night. Trout is something else. I also watched 10 youth games this weekend that my kids were playing in. Baseball, for it’s lack of physicalness is tougher on the mental side than just about any other team sport.
And yes, the amount of food taken in during a 3 hour baseball game is absurd.

Z-man19

looks like she found something she wasn’t expecting

1benmenno

Show me the picture!

Z-man19

it’s up there^

1benmenno

It’s a strung-out gumball.

Z-man19

spelling is pretty crucial here

1benmenno

You’re telling MEE?!

laaarmer

RA…

G Man

udon noodles. they offer those against the glass. stir fried with blackened Sopel.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Don’t know, but she’s watching her favorite player, not the puck.

1benmenno

Ok, Corsi. You got me dead to rights. I admit it. I might’ve filled some people’s heads with meathead ideas, might’ve pushed them in the wrong direction. My sincerest apologies. But does it hafta end this way? Do you, my friend, and I consider . . . .. alaldfkalfjalfja;jgfagjg;lajflgjagjakfjeoeoe

Sorry, I was just imagining Corsi not as Jim but as a statistical Mafia don. Cross between CNS and Neo.

10thMountainFire

It seems like all of the hackers that get into sports Twitter feeds make homophobic comments.

laaarmer

I think it’s because they all ride Harleys

10thMountainFire

South Park? Well done, Laaarms.

1benmenno

(I don’t think that’s his legal name)

laaarmer

Yes, South Park.

10thMountainFire

Well for the record I ride a Harley…

laaarmer

I don’t have or want one.

Accipiter

A twitter account ?

10thMountainFire

Noted.

10thMountainFire

But I still love you… even if you’re more into crotch rockets than Harleys.

laaarmer

I don’t have a motorized cycle, nor do I want one.

10thMountainFire

You can’t make me hate you, Laaarmer. You complete me.

DesertHawk

But they are so fun! /wife won’t let me have one

http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

I usually place little stock in claims of twitter hacking, but this one seems legit. If not hacked, then a “friend” playing a “joke.” Seems unlikely to me that an NHL player would tweet something publicly that implies he’s a homosexual. It’s all pathetic, but I don’t think Seguin typed this one up myself. Also, fuck Twitter.

10thMountainFire

Fuck Twitter. Fuck Facebook. I am not a fan of social media.

laaarmer

But you can collect friends/follow strangers and tell them all what you are doing and how happy or sad you are. All the fucking time.

10thMountainFire

And how you want ice cream right now.

laaarmer

I’m about to drop a deuce.

1benmenno

That reminds me. I have to pee.

laaarmer

That should be related to the amount of time you have the puck.

1benmenno

If by puck you mean gall stone, sure. But I was thinking about whether to assign blame to or credit 1) my bladder’s EV sv%; 2) my bladder’s GAA; or 3) the fact that I’m drinking beer on a humid afternoon.

laaarmer

gall stone, not a good thing.
All good questions. It is probably going to all be Khabby’s fault

1benmenno

Khabbi and I eat gall stones for breakfast. Not a good idea, but that’s what we do.

laaarmer

Khabby. Now, piss off.

1benmenno

Let’s call the hole thing off.

Accipiter

What’s the hole thing ?

laaarmer

mmmmmm donuts (doughnuts)

1benmenno

Really? You had to spell it out? Dunkin’ (dunking)

laaarmer

Yep, but please continue, I’m much entertained.

1benmenno

Which one is American?

laaarmer

the glazed one.

DesertHawk

I have always wondered as to the different spellings

1benmenno

Do you say restroom, bathroom, washroom, or glazed room?

laaarmer

I say bathroom, but I mean can.

1benmenno

Well, the next time you invite me over, I’ll ask where the Water Closet is at.

laaarmer

I will make sure to clear the path for you through the woods

1benmenno

Do you say out and about, oot and a boot, or chillaxin’ wit my peeps?

laaarmer

I don’t say any of that.

I do still call the ATM “the money machine”

10thMountainFire

The ATM gives you money? Mine won’t give me shit.

1benmenno

Do you ‘mericans say “The money machine is not relinquishing my currency” or “Shit, I think this thing is broken” or 2nd amendment?

10thMountainFire

I say, ‘fuck, no money.’

1benmenno

Is that when the 2nd amendment kicks in?

10thMountainFire

Yes.

laaarmer

The correct answer is “we need to change banks”

1benmenno

Do you switch over to Canadian banks? I think Boston’s barn is now called TD Garden (Toronto Dominion)

laaarmer

I can’t I’m a felon in Canada. I once ate a Northern Pike.

1benmenno

You mean the fish or a member of the band?

laaarmer

I can’t remember.

1benmenno

I love that we get away with this sarcasm on a site that isn’t connected in any way to social . . .

Why

Yep. Here’s the quote:

“Only steers and queers in Texas, and I’m not a cow.”

Maybe he tweeted that but I would also bet against it.

Z-man19

he’s an idiot if he tweeted that

Why

It just seems insane that somebody would be homophobic by slurring himself. I’d also be highly suspicious of any tweet that stated “I’m a homo” or “I’m a cunt”.

neo1978

This is a question to Why from his last post to CNS. Did you read the arctic ice hockey article?

Just
curious, what kind of deviation are you expecting? CNS admits that
defense impacts save percentage. so the only thing you are arguing over
is how much?

Are you talking 2/3rds of the goalies in the league
have almost no impact from the defense but maybe one goalie every year
or two is an outlier?

Or are you thinking that the defense can turn a .920 goalie into an .893 goalie? And that happens all the time?

laaarmer

Is it possible that the players on a hockey team and their performance are related to the other players on the team?

/bored

1benmenno

I’ve looked at life from both sides now.

laaarmer

I need to be able to explain everything in my life based on numbers or I cannot exist.

1benmenno

From give and take, and still somehow
It’s Toews’ illusions I recall
I really don’t know Toews at all.

Why

According to certain stats guys, when the question is on save %, the answer is basically no. Of course, they accomplish this by noting that the average change in goaltenders who switch teams, during a certain time period was about .010. And then they don’t acknowledge:

1. That .010 is a fucking monstrous number when it comes to differences in save% among goaltenders.

2. That most teams are likely to be around average and they’re not measuring a player who has moved into a much better or worse situation.

laaarmer

You think new Jersey wins without Brodeur?
Edit: Please, I’m not asking for you to back up your answer with some form of Pythagorean religious narrative.
The answer is either yes or no.

1benmenno

Broduer is a fruad.

10thMountainFire

False. But I did not down-boat you…

1benmenno

Is it false if I misspelled all the words?

10thMountainFire

No. Then you win.

amontesawesome

Why is on-ice save percentage not repeatable for defensemen then? If d-men had that big of an impact on goalies then the league’s best d-men would habitually lead the league in on ice save percentage. That doesn’t happen.

Also, you are blatantly misunderstanding the study, either willfully or through incompetence. You can’t just look at the variance of goalies that changed teams and assume goalies that stayed on the same teams put up the same save percentage every year because that’s fucking stupid. The study also found that goaltenders who stay on the same team varies by nearly the same amount and the difference in save percentage variance between goalies who stayed and who changed was .005. Not monstrous at all.

It’s one thing to not buy in to stats, it’s another to miss the point of them entirely.

ChicagoNativeSon

Wow.

10thMountainFire

This was an argument that we had a few days ago. CNS and I posited that a goaltender’s percentage isn’t dependent on the team so much as it’s an individual indicator likely best analyzed through a prism including other aspects of individual assessment variables.

Why

I’ll answer your questions in order.

1. Yes.
2. Which specific stat are you talking about?
3. Yes.
4. Tertiary question but I have no idea what you’re talking about. If 2/3’s of goaltenders had almost no impact from the defence, than 1/3 would. 1/3 of the goaltenders in the league is a larger amount than 2.
5. Yes.
6. I’m not sure how often it happens.

neo1978

2/3rds of the league’s goalies had almost no impact from the defense in front of them. 1/3 of the league’s goalies had from minimal to as high as .007 percent impact from the defense in front of them. And that is with the caveat that every couple of years there was an outlier of one or maybe two higher than that to twice as high. That is what I remembered it to be.

What this relates to is question 5. The defense can’t turn a .920 goalie into an .893 or worse goalie. That is the meme that all those articles were dispelling.

DesertHawk

Who does the Sun Times say we should watch?

1benmenno

A wise question. Where’s my care package at?

DesertHawk

Still working it, kinda fell into a funk personally, and school and kid getting ready for school. It shall be sent senor, fear not.

1benmenno

No hay problemo, amigo. Just yanking yo chaino.

neo1978

The new goalie, the 2011 first round centers, Shaw v2.0 (Ross), and Johns since he finally decided to actually show up.

DesertHawk

Thanks.

zacked

The Ice Hogs prospect camp.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

I’m watching Mila Kunis.

Z-man19

does Mrs STB know about this watching?

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Yes. The sign of a happy couple that has been together 30+ years: Any amount of looking is allowed, sighing is tolerated. Drooling is frowned upon. (She has her favorites too, mostly British actors and Scandinavian athletes).

Z-man19

30 years? Solid stuff STB

10thMountainFire

This.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Sigh. The great train robbers only got 25 years…

10thMountainFire

Yet your wife was sentenced to 30. That does sound unfair, Sparky.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Yes, I offer this as proof that I am both luckier and smarter than her: I married her (major win), but she married me…

10thMountainFire

I still love you.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Actually it’s closer to 35 years now.

10thMountainFire

Math is not our friend. It is… the enemy.

Z-man19

so you out-kicked your coverage is what you’re saying?

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

I kicked the ball into the third mezanine.

roadhog

You were drafted mistakenly under someone elses stats.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Story of my life.

10thMountainFire

You get your eyes off that woman right fucking now. If I have to tell you again to look away when Natalie Portman or Mila Kunis are present, I’ll start throwing haymaker punches.

laaarmer

A few years ago, over at SCH, there were some people posting pictures of Scarlett J for power plays. I told them that Mila was hotter than Scarlett, and I was right, but they insisted that Scarlett was. I was right.

10thMountainFire

Those people sound fucking stupid.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Boobs. A tie breaker, but not the end all be all.

10thMountainFire

You make me sick.

laaarmer

But, no, I am right

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

Yes you are.

Z-man19

great, now he’ll be insufferable the rest of the week

DesertHawk

I have to agree with the Scarlet fans, for the reason stated by Sparky… If we’re goin’ based purely off of looks with no account for anything else, curves win out for me everyday.

laaarmer

Star Jones then?

1benmenno

You’re a sick sick man. Maybe you shoud have threesome with Martha Stewart and Judge Judy while you’re at it

Z-man19

Stop projecting your fantasies onto others

1benmenno

If I can’t project my fantasies, what am I to do with them, wiseguy?

Z-man19

go in the water closet and deal with it

1benmenno

Pretty clever for a guy from Iowa.

Z-man19

If I were from Iowa, I would have suggested velcro gloves, rubber boots and pick a sheep

Fleshrifle

With Martha and Judge Judy? Would that be in Martha’s prison cell or Judy’s courtroom. And when I say “prison cell” and “courtroom”, I don’t mean prison cell or courtroom.

1benmenno

See? It’s a good fantasy if you have to ask those kinds of questions.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

That’s why there is a mute button.

laaarmer

No, false. Let me give you an example.
Labbats girl Pam
Barb Wire Pam

DesertHawk

I don’t follow…

laaarmer

Google what I typed.

DesertHawk

I did it was Pam Anderson… but I still am not tracking… Is she more aggressively enhanced in one of those? I think I was too late to the game to ever find her really attractive, I didn’t care about women in that way til way after her prime. Also I’m not really a fan of enhancements in the first place and I’d argue that’s a different case from curves/no curves.

laaarmer

What part of enhancement is not sticking?
Labbat girl Pam is way hotter than Barb Wire Pam. It’s not just the miles/bolt ons on Barb, Labatt girl is just better.

1benmenno

You can spout all the nonsense you want: I need evidence! In the form of links right now.

DesertHawk

Labbat girl Pam is still curvy though… this all really falls to personal preference anyway I like natural curves, that doesn’t matter as much to you. :shrug:

1benmenno

I bet CNS could give us some numbers to mull on.

laaarmer

So, there’s only one T in Scarlett? I’m sorry I didn’t know that, I was looking at something else.

DesertHawk

I have no idea how to spell her name. It appears two Ts is correct.

laaarmer

Two t–s indeed

1benmenno

I’d like to see the numbers on that, Mr. “I feel this way”

Accipiter

While you are punch fighting I will be rolling in hay (that you made by punching) with Natalie Portman or Mila Kunis or both.

I say we surprise the civil authorities and the media and riot now. In Vancouver.

roadhog

As if a riot in Vancouver would surprise anybody . . .

laaarmer

If you had a guy named Dick Corsi on your team, would you be able to accurately measure his corsi?

Accipiter

Micro or macro ?

1benmenno

Brill.

http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

Briss.

1benmenno

Did not know you were Jewish.

http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

I’m not actually. But it’s a great word (except for the definition part of it).

1benmenno

If you think the definition’s the worst part, have I got mohel for you.

BTW, you know we love the Nova (smoked salmon)

Waylon

Ginik on being such a big Macher.

1benmenno

Kinahora what does it hoit?

Z-man19

The ordering of these comments really didn’t work out so well for not Chico

Z-man19

He said Pastor not Rabbi, do you not listen?

1benmenno

I only have ears for you.

Z-man19

Then STAY AWAY FROM MY GUMBALLS

1benmenno

I can’t hear because I have two Stanley Cup rings in my ears. And all your gumballs in another place that also blocks my hearing. (Hint: I’ve been doing yoga)

Accipiter

In the back of a Volkswagen ?

1benmenno

That made me laugh. But you’re still an asshole.

laaarmer

his individual corsi, of course.

1benmenno

If Metta World Peace wasn’t a chuckleheaded douchefucker . . . that is all.

10thMountainFire

He fits the profile.

10thMountainFire

Yep, it’s non-hockey season here at The Committed Indian.

laaarmer

10th, when you have two kids playing, it’s always hockey season. Both kids on the ice 2x per week all summer with their respective teams. My wife will not talk about hockey during the summer, but we (my boys and I) talk about it all the time. My older boy is having a great time ridiculing his Red Wing buddies regarding Alfie, on Twitter, no less

10thMountainFire

Then we have concluded: it’s always hockey season. ‘Merica.

http://www.lotsofbutterplease.com/ I am not Chico Maki

‘Anada.

1benmenno

Beat me to it.

Z-man19

am I supposed to know who ‘Anada is? She Rihana’s sister?

1benmenno

Yeah, she’s the sane one. But, tragically and predictably, not as hot.

1benmenno

And a bit of a monarchist. (Loves Lady Di; thinks Sir Elton wrote the song for her specifically.)

laaarmer

Yes, but back the the Dick Corsi question
“Corsi’s corsi was not significant enough to measure.”

I get everyone here except for Beach. Are they still sold on him, or are they thinking they can trade him shortly after signing him? Seems hard to believe they think he has any future with the organization, unless his injury last season gave him one more chance.

Oregon_hawk

Given the option to keep an asset or give it away for nothing, which would you take?

At most, its tossing 60k down the drain, and spending a AHL spot, right?

Joe Banks

I mean, somebody’s gotta fill that hole that opened when Rusty left, right???

Waylon

I actually figured that the asset in question was deemed worthless by the organization at this point. Clearly, I was incorrect in that assumption.

VanDorp’sMullet

May still be deemed worthless, but they may have RFAed him if there seemed to be some interest in him. If someone signs him to an offer sheet (very, very unlikely), they get a pick. They could also sign him and trade him to another org. for an asset they like better. That’s my guess as to the thought process there. But maybe (just maybe) they haven’t given up on him yet. I sure don’t see him succeeding here though. He’s like Carcillo’s more dim-witted little brother or something.

10thMountainFire

I saw ‘ESPN article’ and sort of fell asleep there for a moment. I’m sorry.

guess he didn’t care for Nash signing a bunch of 3rd liners to join with the rest of their 3rd liners. The Blues get spurned, oh the inhumanity

VerStig

Heh… that Phil Kessel caption is DGB-esque.

laaarmer

Back to the puck possession and what caused the change discussion, since Mila and Labatt girl Pam are hotter.
Since TOI/shift start and stop time is already stat, it would be easy to add a puck possession column to this. If we used a standard shot chart template, and marked the turnover/change of possession in the area of the ice it occured by writing the number of the player, that could correlate to the players on the ice at the time of the turnover, and a hit, if that be the case.

DesertHawk

You are incorrigible.

laaarmer

Actually, I am serious on all counts.

roadhog

Surely, you can’t be serious.

laaarmer

Oklahoma!

I wished Mrs. Partridge was my mom, but what was the deal with Reuben Kinkade?

1benmenno

Total douchebag. But apart from his sexuality, what do you mean??

laaarmer

I guess he was the foil for Bonaduce, so he served that purpose.

1benmenno

Shirley, it’s spelled Bonaduce.

laaarmer

I fixed it before you posted you fucking asshole.

1benmenno

Whatevs, Shirley.

laaarmer

Shoily

Joe Banks

Shirley Jones… grrrrrrr

Susan Dey…

1benmenno

We can be happy! C’mon get happy.

1benmenno

He is serious, but stop calling him Shirley . . ..

VerStig

Didn’t gmh do something to track puck possession by player once? I think she spent hours in front of the DVR and I wouldn’t wish that on anybody.

laaarmer

I am editing this comment
I think she did, but I’m not advocating WE do it. THEY – NHL should do it as a real time stat

On a touch screen you mark the COP – change of possession on the rink template. The shift/TOI numbers have to be done like this, however if they are done by charcoal and parchment, then my idea will not work. We could find out very quickly how puck possession is affected by different people on the ice.

Why

CBC was running an actual individual player possession stat at times during the playoffs. I imagine it was only for a few stars because it would be time consuming to track.

laaarmer

Yes and my idea would be truly a team stat, but as the games piled up, if a player was on the ice for 200 changes of possession and 120 were changes to the opponent, it would become significant. This little rink template would also be tracking which team had the puck. It would, however not account for loose pucks, which I’ll bet is a significant amount of time.

guest

My brother writes fancy camera software for a physics lab. I’ve chatted with him about how police departments now have that creepy facial recognition software for the cameras that are everywhere, and would it be possible to use those powers for good and use them to track players around the ice and figure out who had the puck where at any given time to do statistics.

He said they were way different things and it’d be almost impossible to do right now, but when I looked sad he pointed out that the computing power/tricks to do it might become reasonable within a decade or so…

bizarrohairhelmet

would be pretty easy with RF identifiers on everything…and cheap.

VerStig

I guess you’d have to track both losses and gainings of possession

Z-man19

Initially, why not just track the puck? Obviously it would far more interesting with the players tracked as well, but just showing where the puck was during a period would be fairly interesting

laaarmer

change of possession. If you lose possession, the other team gained it. Like I said, no room for loose pucks

VerStig

Maybe if one of us wrote an iPad app to do this, the NHL could start doing it.

If you build it, they will come?

laaarmer

Well, that is what I’m thinking, but it won’t be me, it will have to be you, just remmeber where the idea came from. “I want my $2.”

10thMountainFire

I was considering buying an iPad. Now you’ve given me a reason.

Z-man19

don’t do it to use disqus on it, you’ll throw the ipad

laaarmer

Fast info for ipad looks to be pretty good.

roadhog

And going down this list from top to bottom, which is the first team that jumps out and says “I might not make the playoffs in 2014″?

I’m still really curious how they’re giving Pitt better odds, none of their shortcomings have been accounted for.

roadhog

I’m over it, as long as the name Crosby is at least associated with the roster – ie LTIR, they are the favorites, whatever . . .

DesertHawk

It just seems like as oddsmakers, facts would matter…

Z-man19

the only fact that matters is how people are betting on it

DesertHawk

Ahh… so the odds are merely a product of how people bet? I don’t have any idea how this stuff works.

Why

It’s supposed to be. The idea is that you’d like to put yourself in a position where you make money no matter who wins. You do this by depressing odds and trying to keep your payout the same no matter who wins.

It’s why you’ll see odds change. If one team is getting too much action, the oddsmakers will try to entice people to bet on the other team by further lowering the odds of the team getting too much action and increasing the amount of money you’ll win if you bet on the opponent.

roadhog

If it’s true paramutuel, they cannot legally “entice.” If it’s fixed odds (at the time of the bet) I believe the house can “entice” or “depress” to encourage/discourage betting. I think most Cup Winner type bets are fixed odds. There is actually a betting tip out there to wait until your team is on a losing streak before betting on them winning the cup- which raises your payout. That wouldn’t have worked to well with the Hawks this year.

Why

Makes sense. I agree that paramutuel betting wouldn’t allow for enticing or depressing odds and I also agree that Cup Winner bets are fixed (not paramutuel) at the time of the bet. Those fixed odds will change for future betters based on how much action is on any individual team.

It’s also generally good advice about betting after a losing streak and I enjoy any time someone brings up the fact that the Blackhawks didn’t lose much last year. Well played.

Don’t you know? The Eastern conference is soooo much better than the west. The western conference has been luckky to win the Stanley Cup 5 of the last 7 years. // Eastern Biased Douche.

roadhog

HITZ!!!!!

DesertHawk

But look at all the goals everyone scores!!!!

lizmcneill

Specially Pittsburgh…oh, wait.

DesertHawk

Hey they scored two on Tuuka, he’s the bestest goalie ever.

10thMountainFire

SJ, Caps, Carolina…

roadhog

Sharks/Ducks/Leafs . . . three in a row and one doesn’t make it methinks. Weren’t the Ducks projected to not make the playoffs in the beginning of 2012-13?

10thMountainFire

I think Toronto moves upward.

Joe Banks

I totally agree.
I am baffled at some of these rankings. Why are Blows, Nucks, and Rangers ranked so high?

10thMountainFire

Because of the terrorists.

In all fairness, Scum Jr seemed to live/die with their goaltending- which was incredible in 2011-2012 but fell off marginally in 2012-2013. With any return to the level the netminders had in 2011-2012, Scum Jr will be a very formidable opponent… and that rivalry will escalate in virulence.

Joe Banks

Virulence? Well, based on their recent roster moves, perhaps they should change their name to the Defiance Tumors.

Why

Somebody always surprises me but the Blues make a ton of sense. Chicago’s division appears to be the most likely contender for the new Southeast. Plus three teams have to make the playoffs from the division, not just one.

Why

I love these types of links.

My quick answer is that Detroit is ranked very high for a team that finished 7th in the West and has more teams to deal with to make the playoffs. It’s interesting that it looks like Phoenix, Dallas, Detroit and New Jersey are the teams that the gamblers liked the most compared to the initial odds.

I’d think it would be someone out East that gets the shaft and probably in Division D. On a quick glance, there conference seems to have more quality teams. The Devils, Rangers, Islanders, Flyers, Capitals and Penguins are all in the same division and at most, 5 can get in. That happens if you assume only three of Boston, Detroit, Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal make it and there are no surprise teams from the bottom six.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

And yet they have the ‘about to burst into flames’ Vancouver Canucks at 16:1

Why

Falling to 16:1 though. That’s a rabid fan base that I’d think would create more action.

Oregon_hawk

Yeesh. Just saw this over on SCH:

“One area of Kruger’s game that can use some improvement is his faceoffs. He won 228 of his 493 (17.8% of the team’s total faceoffs) draws which equals a 46.2 win percentage. His faceoff percentage on the penalty kill wasn’t too spectacular either as he won just 58 of his 150 shorthanded draws (38.7%). His numbers at the dot dropped off in the post season as he only won 37.6 of his draws.”

thats some bad FO #s.

10thMountainFire

But somehow in our mourning period people conveniently leave out that Bollie was fucking awful at the dot?

Oregon_hawk

I’m not particularly mourning Bolly’s departure. He was effective, but not in an un-worldly way. Far from irreplaceable.

I think people mourn the loss of the myth more than the man. Bolly was a special kind of crazy.

10thMountainFire

Sorry about that… I didn’t mean to imply you… just ‘others’.

Oregon_hawk

I do wish the Hawks were more effective, team-wise, at FO. Certainly it is difficult to exceed 55% or so, based on the fact that the elite guys like toews are only close to 60%, but, 38.7% shorthanded? yuck.

10thMountainFire

Faceoffs and the PP remain the ultimate bitching focus… and rightfully so.

Imagine how extremely fucking awesome we would have been with a PP even 50% better than ours was?

Oregon_hawk

unstoppable, simple as that.

DesertHawk

I think you’ll find, that even without a good PP, last season we were unstoppable.

Oregon_hawk

I would argue that we were not stopped.

DesertHawk

Not sure if agreeing or disagreeing… <.<

Oregon_hawk

The hawks were good, but in both the Boston and Detroit series, the opponent and the hawks were playing at similar levels for much of the series.

Detroit or Boston could have stopped the hawks. They could have won – it was right there in the balance. Yes, the hawks won, but it wouldn’t have taken much for things to go another way.

With a PP functioning at the average of the top 5 PPs in the playoffs – that average being 23.8%, the hawks would have scored more than 8 more goals over their 23 GP. That rate is more than double what the hawks actually produced on the PP.

There’s no way to tell what that would mean, of course. But, given how close so many of the games in the Detroit and Boston series were, a PPG at a few critical times would have helped, and, had the PP been productive like that, with all else being equal, I don’t think any team could have stopped the hawks.

The didn’t anyway – but with a good PP, I don’t think they could have.

DesertHawk

Despite all of that, we weren’t stopped… so… unstoppable.

Why

The 2012-2013 Blackhawks are no longer capable of being stopped.

ChicagoNativeSon

And if the Hawks PK functioned at the average of the worst 5 teams, they would have probably given up 8 more goals.

And if a nickel was a dollar, a thought was worth a penny, I owned all the tea in China, etc…

Unstoppable.

Why

I feel very lucky to cheer for this team right now.

“Our Stanley Cup winning team’s power play is only good enough to win the Stanley Cup.”

“I think our back up goaltender is slightly overpaid for the one year he signed up for.”

“We have so many good defencemen and players that Bollig, Carcillo and Brookbank don’t seem like viable options.”

Reminds me to head over to Tahoe and cash my ticket for the Hawks winning this year. (After I frame the photocopy). This time in 2010 my then 2-year old daughter ate the other winner I had (that meal cost me about $600…but I have the remnants to collect from her someday).

Joe Banks

Any word on prospects camp?

Z-man19

don’t think you’ll get much news til later in the week when they scrimmage

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

My internetz skills suck. Anyone remember the blogger who has now picked the SCF winner five straight years (including the number of games)?

When we went down 2-1 to the Bruins and everyone was already eulogizing the Hawks, I reread this guy for a little boost in morale. He’s been amazing — nailed most of the playoff series winners (and number of games even).

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

One of the many faults in NBC’s coverage. To listen to every pregame spot: The team that won the last game was unstoppable, and the team that lost the last game was in trouble.

Preacher

And I felt that with the exception of the Hawks having momentum coming out of the triple OT win, every pregame spot was about the Bruins simply owning the Hawks. Even when the Hawks won game 5, what did we hear? Crow’s glove hand was weak and the Bruins were where they were against the Nucks. It never sounded like the Bruins were in trouble. I was even waiting for the analysts to give the Bs a good shot of winning the series after the handshakes.

Waylon

True, but surprisingly enough, the CBC game announcers were almost as bad. They still seemed to think the Bruins were dominating the series, and after the Hawks won the final game expressed wonderment about how “they stole one.” Really honked me off, and they didn’t even sound all that excited about the actual team that won the cup.

Sparky_The_Bard-barian

When Bicks scored, I remembered this guy and thought, Oh, my. He’s got a shot. When Bolly scored, my first thought was of Toews hoisting the cup. My second thought was of this guy.

laaarmer

One stat guy gets it right and that means what? He stated the obvious? You know why the Hawks won? Because they were better and you didn’t need any “advanced” stats to know it.

steeg of their own

One stats guy gets it right five years in a row and people start to pay attention.

The Hawks won because they were the better team in the six games they played. No stats needed to recognize that, the score does it for us. However, BEFORE the series was played, statistics (I refuse to use the term ‘advanced stats’ because this stuff is not really complicated or advanced) dictated his PREDICTION that the Hawks would win. To quote you: “One stat guy gets it right and that means what?” It means that a stat guy got it right, and in this case got it right five years in a row. He did this by weighing a basket of demonstrative stats (AKA stats that tell us things that have happened in actually-played games) together. He generated a prediction from his basket of stuff that had happened in the past. The prediction was correct, and moreover it was correct over a decent period of observation (five years). So maybe he wasn’t bullshitting out his ass, and was actually onto something about how hockey stats might predict team success over a long series of games.

This is a good thing if you’re trying to figure out how to measure the sport in stats. When the numbers start to have predictive value, instead of simply descriptive or demonstrative value, you can build teams or seasons or championships on that shit. But you’ve got to figure out which baskets of numbers are predictive first, and this guy seems to be onto a trend.

Also, fuck your reductive analysis of “The Hawks were better and you didn’t need ‘advanced’ stats to know it”. Yeah, you didn’t need ‘advanced’ stats (THEY AREN’T ADVANCED, ANYONE WITH ADDITION SKILLS CAN GET THESE NUMBERS) to understand things after the fact. But to explain them before the fact and come to correct conclusions, it certainly helps to have numbers that explain what the team is doing and what it’s likely to do.

bizarrohairhelmet

They should make a movie about it

Why

If previous movies are any indication, we’re going to get an entire show that doesn’t or barely mentions Toews, Kane or Keith.

Why

I’ll start with an acknowledgement: Congrats to the guy on nailing his predictions 5 years in a row. That’s tough to do and involves a large amount of luck. From his perspective, he should be very proud. Now, let’s move on to your reply in particular.

Bullshit.

Seppa didn’t make a prediction based on the stats. It’s a bunch of numbers combined with a gut instinct pick. If you don’t believe me, take a closer look at the categories. He listed intangibles.

As for your argument that anything this guy has done should be used in team building, here is an approximate list of factors he referred to: Everything but shooting percentage. If your point is that hockey teams should worry about almost everything that happens on the ice, I don’t think you’ve narrowed it down much.

As for the larger point about building a team around these “possession” stats, we’ve already seen loads of admissions that teams don’t plan on winning the Corsi battle or some other minor statistical category. The put more guys to the net, try to create odd man rushes and try to find ways to create high quality shots.

Even if Corsi or Fenwick have predictive value, you’ve got to acknowledge that Corsi and Fenwick work in an environment where no one that matters cares about Fenwick or Corsi. If you start actually trying to build a team around maximizing Fenwick or Corsi (rather than recognizing them as the stats of people trying to win hockey games) , you’re going to build a loser.

lizmcneill

I think it was Backhand Shelf had an article about Corsi/Fenwick being a byproduct rather than an end result; a team that scores a lot and doesn’t give up a lot will have good Corsi, because the methods to score and prevent goals will also generate and prevent shots.

Why

It’s one of the things that make building a team around advanced stats problematic. If it’s part of a goal in and of itself (like OBP) you can build around players that are likely to increase it. For instance, if you decide that teams are undervaluing OBP, you can grab guys who take more pitches or draw more walks. I’ve yet to here anyone offer an explanation for how a strategy that would increase Corsi or Fenwick would differ from a strategy that teams regularly employ. It’s another thing that makes comparisons of advanced hockey statistics to advanced baseball statistics so inapt.

If the Backhand Shelf guys nailed this point, thank you for pointing it out. I’ve become a somewhat regular reader over there and I have no issue with them getting deserved credit.

Why

I’m not even sure how he uses the stats for his pick. He lists a bunch and then just seems to make a pick from his gut at the end.

zacked

Lighten up, Francis.

Why

That’s an insane streak.

ChicagoNativeSon

Yeah, but he’ll probably get the next 5 wrong. Ya know, randomness and luck in a small sample size and all that.

Why

Well, he’d appear to be one four or five game series away from being wrong. I’m willing to believe that players can make plays to impact close games. Guys that make predictions? Yeah, you need more than a little luck to get five Stanley Cup Finals correct in a row, much less to nail the amount of games every time.

ballyb11

I could do that.

Korab22

In case you missed this over the weekend, here is Cornelison singing Take Me Out to The Ball Game on Saturday at Wrigley Field. I hate the whole guest conductor shtick and look forward to the day when the Cubs shit-can it, but this turned out pretty cool.