Stuff ticked up this year giving him a “solid-average fastball” (that can flash a bit above) and a good changeup [no mention of slider but mentions a solid three pitch mix]. Morgan has “impressive feel and command” for his pitches. He could be a #4 soon, with #3 upside long term.

95: Jesse Biddle

Biddle has more projection than Morgan, but he still has the floor of a back end starter. He has only a solid-average fastball but it plays up form his release and the changeup has improved greatly over the years [again no mention of the breaking ball, but the write ups are short]. Biddle has the delivery that he should be able to refine his command and approach with repetition in the high minors, and if he harnesses it he could be a #2 long term.

Anyone who reads this board and thinks the Phillies are anything better than a low 20s system isn’t doing it right, IMO. No one on here thinks the Phils are a “good” system right now. Better than a year ago, in a vacuum, sure. But other clubs continue to operate as well, and I don’t think anyone who writes for this site, (or most of the commenters), think that the system is anything more than what Law states – a bunch of non-stars getting close to the bigs and a couple guys who could max out high but are really far away and have serious obstacles to doing so.

Brad, don’t you think that the Phillies drafting in the bottom of the draft has anything to do with this at all? Do you think the Philadelphia fans would stand for a) a great farm system but lousy MLB team or b) a superior MLB team with a below average /average farm system? Ideally we want both but it is not always feasible.

Well John Sickel has us rated at #20 so everyone has their own valuation system. The Royals have a top rated farm system with little success at the MLB level for a really long time. I don’t think Royals fans celebrated the Wilmington Blue Rocks championships at all. I agreed with the position of this sites founder(James) that prospects are very important but the MLB teams needs are even greater.

Sickels values high floor, low ceiling players with proximity. The Phillies have many potential relief arms that he believes will contribute, which probably accounts for his disproportionately high ranking.

Sickels is higher on Darin Ruf than anyone in the industry. He is higher on Cody Asche than most. He is ridiculously higher on guys like Kevin Brady, Hoby Milner, Kyle Simon and Seth Rosin, who could be fast tracked to the majors as relievers. Conversely, he doesn’t rank Carlos Tocci or LGj as a top 20 prospects.
It’s all about proximity with Sickels. So just as Law said, the Phillies have bunch of non-stars ready to make the majors, with all of the impact talents far away.

David Murphy was on the twitter this morning making the case that the MLB rankings represent the priority of the Phillies FO (for instance, ranking Martin second to suggest the team “won” the Victorino trade). The names you picked make sense, too–Greene as a high draft pick (and selected in lieu of internet sensation Jackie Bradley) and Valle as someone that the team sees as a trade chip.

Pujols is awful hard that high on a list given that he’s yet to play; if he has a Tocci-like debut this season, that ranking might be warranted.

I’ve seen Pujols’ name mentioned as a top prospect numerous times, but have not seen Deivi Grullon’s name mentioned on these lists. Its kind of strange because Grullon was the higher rated Latin prospect.

The big talking point here is Keith Law’s decision to rank Adam Morgan ahead of Jesse Biddle. Debatable decision, but I think it probably speaks as much to Law’s generally dim view of the system in general (he ranks it 27th) and lukewarmness on Biddle in particular than it says anything hugely positive about Morgan. Let the reflexive Keith Law bashing commence!

Morgan over Biddle is entirely justifiable. On pure stuff Morgan has a better fastball and changeup and Biddle’s breaking ball is only slightly better. Now factor in that Morgan suceeded at AA and the only real thing Biddle has going for him is pedigree and age. That was enough for me to personally have him #1 but I have Morgan very close behind at #2.

If you want to bash Law for their spot in the rankings that is fine (his reports on both are actually optimistic and I will have summaries up soon) but the Morgan over Biddle is not a good Law bashing argument. Eric Longenhagen will have Morgan #1 on his rankings (Crashburn Alley) and of all the people outside of the Phillies organization he scouts the Phillies the most (and talks to the most scouts specifically about the Phillies).

Law questions Biddle’s command and from all other reports it has gotten only better this year and should improve as his delivery is athletic and consistent. He cruised through A+ as a 20 year old, increasing strikeouts and decreasing walks. Coming from a cold-weather prep school where we knew it would take some time to build up his stamina, Biddle has more than lived up to his billing and the Phillies draft choice.

Law’s was the first list where I’ve seen Morgan over Biddle. On this site, Morgan got just 10/635 first place votes, so Biddle-over-Morgan does seem to be an extreme minority view.

My point was simply that Law has often been at odds with the consensus regarding Phils’ prospects, and this is another example. By itself, this ranking is not that significant, and defensible (though I disagree with it), but it is part of a pattern.

It sounds like you are higher on Morgan than I am, and so this ranking seems like less of a stretch to you than it does to me.

Biddle was from a small prep school in the North East. Not exactly a baseball hot bed with advanced competition and extensive scouting networks. Based on what information BA, BP, or Law had they were probably right, at the time, to rank Biddle 90. Same could be said of Trout the year before.

I don’t see how this much different than the differences on Darin Ruf, he is currently #15 on my list and the website voted him #6. The thing is the rest of the industry respects Law’s opinion and he respects the opinions of the other rankers. He has his own personal set of ranking criteria and the recent set of Phillies have no matched it. He has been extremely high on some players (he was the first one to shoot Singleton up the rankings as well as Cosart) and lower on others. When someone here posts their scout credentials and why they know better than Keith, they can’t say he is an idiot and biased, his opinion just doesn’t match yours.

BTW here are the rankings on Morgan up to this point: BA #5, BP #3, MLB #7 (though their tools grades would have him #2 or #3), Sickels #2, and us #3. Biddle is not a stud enough prospect to say that the gap is that large that a matter of personal opinion would put them for all purposes equal (the difference between 92 and 95 is so minuscule arguing over it is beyond ridiculous)

The reflexive line was a joke. You can question Law’s assessments in this and many other cases, but it’s a long-running theme among some commenters that Law “hates the Phillies” and thus underrates our prospects out of spite.

I don’t know if it’s out of spite, but he does seem to underrate our prospects relative to other experts. At least, that is my impression. Now he may be right and the other experts may be wrong, but it does seem to be a pattern.

I’m curious, though, what “questionable decisions in rankings” you think he has made. Not questionable in the sense of “I disagree with him,” but questionable in the sense of “in retrospect, he sure got that one wrong.” I’m sure you can find some of the latter, but mostly mistakes that everyone made.

In fact, to the extent that both of the following are true (I think they are), then it seems to me that Law has a decent track record:

(1) On the whole, including prospects traded to other organizations, Phillies’ prospects in recent years have had somewhat disappointing major league performances.
(2) Law does tend to be a little more harsh on the Phillies’ system than most “experts.”

More specifically, Law is not a fan of the “tools” picks, and in fact the recent track record with those sorts of picks has been poor.

I say this as someone who, despite my Amaro bashing, is overall a fan of the Phillies’ minor league and drafting operations. (Reconciling that opinion with the preceding paragraphs would take more words than I have time for, a fact which I am sure will make some people happy.)

First of all, that has zero to do with what we have been talking about, his ability to evaluate prospects. That Law is a jerk I can agree with. He’s a jerk who happens to do a very good, if imperfect (no one is perfect) job of evaluating prospects.

Second of all, maybe I am naive but I didn’t read Law’s comment that way. There is a certain person (not you) who read it that way, and inaccurately claimed in comments here that Law had said exactly that (without referencing the original quote). Since then, we have had some other issues with that person, as you know.

Actually, it was a chat participant who insinuated that Cozens was juicing. And to be honest, when I read it, I didn’t think Law was agreeing with him. But if by not fervently disagreeing, Law was insinuating that Cozens was juicing, then ok. Point taken.

KLaw!! Ruben Amaro was downright giddy about Dylan Cozens in his draft analysis. Cozens wasn’t even rated due to football commitment or character issues. Why all the excitement? What is his potential?

Klaw (1:14 PM):

He wasn’t rated highly because he’s not that good. Shoved his coach and told him to “f off” in the dugout during a game, so he was kicked off the team – the culmination of a series of incidents that turned many scouts off him, one even calling him a “bully.” (Just what you want on your GCL team around a handful of 16-year-old Latin American kids.) And he’s a big power-before-hit guy who put on 50-60 pounds in a single summer. Amaro is pumping up his draft pick, which is his job, but he’s giving you half the story.

Keith Law, dumb ass article on Dylan Cozens pushing coach and telling coach to F … off .Keith Law, dumb ass article on Dylan Cozens pushing coach and telling coach to F … off . This was Dylan’s junior year not senior year. This accrued one year earlier before the Keith Law article.So one year later Keith Law wants to talk about character ! Dylan before being drafted won athlete of the year by the East Valley Tribune, most home runs in the state ,3rd in the nation, broke Paul Konerkos home run record, walk off home run to win the State Championship voted All American for baseball and before that played football for the first time and made 1st team all state and recruited by most of the PAC 12 schools where they all said he was a future Sunday player. His junior year in baseball he only played 4 games and had 5 home runs and was late playing baseball due to being the starting center in basketball his junior year where they lost in the semi finals and missed the first four games in baseball and still led his team in home runs his junior year before being kicked off and transferring. The coach Dylan pushed was an assistant coach and should have been fired on the spot! People hear about Dylan size and assume he pushed this smaller coach, well the coach was 6′ 4″ 240 pounds former unsuccessful minor league pitcher with an attitude, he bullied and man handled Dylan, and Dylan stood up to the Ass! Both coaches were fired one year later for violations ! No mention of that! Law mentioned Dylan wasn’t ranked very high because he ‘wasn’t that good! Well the Phillie’s weren’t the only team interested in Dylan before the draft, the Yankees and Rangers also liked what they saw in Dylan ! Dylan didn’t play basketball his senior but all ready had offers from schools based on his summer club ball that he played.He has been quite busy in sports playing 3 sports football ,baseball and basketball during the summer and also had time to put on 50 to 60 pounds of mussel according to Keith Law if you believe that! No Dylan lost weight that summer!
If you have a kid in high school and knowing the schedules that these coaches put on these kids, how is it possible to put on 50 to 60 pounds of mussel during a summer playing 3 different sports. Keith Law I don’t have any respect for you and your opinion on baseball talent! Keith Law you got this one wrong!

My comment referred to your point (2). The question then becomes, how should we treat Law’s analysis given that he seems to systematically differ from the expert consensus?

I don’t have strong opinions on whether Law’s low opinion arises from a difference in methodology or some sort of bias against the team. My point was simply that the anti-Law sentiment around here is not just sour grapes and reflexive shooting of the messenger, as implied by Andrew and Matt.

But he differs from the consensus (and he doesn’t differ THAT much) for reasons which are pretty transparent and arguable justified. The biggest being his disdain for the “tools” picks. And on that point, up to now, he has been “right.” Of course the sample size on those picks is small enough that, in the long run, the franchise could be vindicated.

My own two cents on that point is that, while I think ON THE WHOLE the organization has done a fine job drafting over the past few years,* I’d criticize the “tools” picks in two respects: (1) “tools” players can mean different things. Some picks have lacked a basic hit tool – Hewitt the poster child for this.That was apparent to many of us at the time. (2) There’s a lot to be said for waiting to round 3 or lower to take a flier on the “tool sheds,” and use higher picks for players who are a little more advanced.

*the low ranking despite that is MOSTLY a product of trading away prospects, and secondarily draft position over a course of years, something that one pick can’t reverse.

System rankings are largely based on the top half of the system plus really high profile/ceiling guys in the lower half. So we are correctly in the 20-27 range since we have 4 or 5 second tier prospects in the upper half of our system and nobody who was a really high pick (top of 1st round) in the bottom half.

The strength of our system is depth in the bottom half with a large number of toolsy players. This gives us the potential of a system that could easily jump to the 10-15 range if a few guys like Quinn and Watson and Tocci step forward this year. So I agree with the rankings out there in general, but it is not quite all bad news and doom/gloom with our system. We just needs some players to develop now.

I have to admit I was surprised to see Morgan ranked ahead of Biddle on Law’s list, but he does allude to the fringe average-ness of Biddle’s FB. I really hope there’s a possibility for it to tick up a grade, but I do remember reading the scouting report that Biddle was already near his maximum frame in HS leaving not much projection for Biddle’s stuff.

They need to do a bang up job in this year’s draft to add some talent.

Law is also not a fan of Ruf, feeling that he is a platoon first baseman. He also does not put a lot of points of relievers, which the Phillies system seems to have a lot of. Splitting the difference would make us 23-24 which feels about right. We need to hit on this 16th pick, which could be a difference maker. We have not had a pick that high in quite some time.

A quick look at BA’s Top 50 draft rankings shows a kid at #15 named Phil Ervin of Samford (CF), who was the MVP of the Cape League this summer, and who also set the HR record for the league. For perspective, Evan Longoria was Cape MVP in ’05; 3 years later, he was in the show. But Longo was also the #3 overall pick in ’06. This is maybe a guy we can hope falls to #16.

Agree but of course hitting on a 16th pick does not raise you too much in the rankings when there are 15 higher choices above that. I think we rise when multiple prospects take a step forward (3-5 of them). FWIW that has been our strategy: accumulate toolsy second tier talents and then hope a few succeed. Not a bad strategy but not one without risk.

Well, yes and no. Some of those other 15 picks will be busts and some will be just so-so. If the Phillies hit a HR with pick #16, then that definitely will improve their rating. Probably not in year one, when the ratings of draftees are all based on the same assessments and hype that got them picked where they were picked, but certainly after their first full season (or two). Any way you slice it, this is by far the best chance that the Phillies have had in years to get a top talent who will sign for slot (which has always been a requirement for Phillies first rounders). The Phillies have had only two first-rounders in the past 5 years. Hewitt was #24 and Biddle was #27. There’s a big difference in available talent picking #16 vs supplemental round, as we did last year.

Of course if we hit a home run with any pick it will help us. I just think it is wishful thinking to always expect half of the teams drafting ahead of us to make bad picks. I like having higher picks, but I don’t really count on everyone else being stupid for our system to progress. That is how we start over-rating our own prospects and then start complaining when they have low rankings in a top 100.

We have done a pretty good job without high picks the past couple of years, accumulating some depth. Our system will become good if some of that depth starts to develop.

I didn’t say I was counting on everyone else being stupid. I am counting on our scouts being very good. Any way you slice it, there is a far better chance adding a guy who will be a future impact player when you pick #16, than when you pick 40th as we did with Watson (and 54 with Gueller) this past year. I recall you being among those who are hot on Watson and Gueller. I don’t think it a stretch to think we would have gotten somebody better, if we had been able to choose 24 picks earlier. We can wet our pants over the tools of a Gueller, but to use your comment are we saying the teams that chose the 52 guys not named Watson ahead of him are stupid and made bad choices. Let’s say half of them did make flawed choices. That still means that just in the 2012 draft, there were 20 guys with better talent than Watson and 27 with better talent than Gueller. So… if you are excited about the promise of guys like Larry Greene (#39 overall) or Watson/Gueller, than I think it reasonable to be really excited by who we may get at #16. You can’t have it both ways. If you think our scouts did well with supplemental round guys and getting Biddle as our #1 prospect at pick #27, then you have to like the odds of getting somebody better than any of these guys with this year’s pick #16. Our scouts could fall in love with another Hewitt, but they usually do a good job. It’s the first year in a long while that we don’t have to reach to get a quality player.

I agree that the player at #16 will be better. It is just the notion that everyone picking ahead of us will make mistakes that I hate. Our pick is in the middle. I hope we hit on that. But do we really think we can realistically expect our pick to be among the 5 best picks in the whole draft? That is the type of impact you need if you are going to say that one pick will lift your entire system ranking. It just is not realistic to expect that. Yes I like the Watson and Gueller picks. I like HS pitchers with some raw stuff. They have a higher chance of success AND failure. I want players with the tools to be above average major leaguers. To play this higher risk strategy you need multiple options. It is not worth ranking us higher because these options have not panned out yet. But since they do have higher ceilings they do present a realistic possibility of raising our system’s rank. I am not relying on one pick (#16) to change our status. I want multiple high risk/high reward picks.

Yes, with excellent scouting it is possible that our pick #16 will be among the top 5 players taken in the draft. Chase Utley was taken 15th in the draft. He certainly was among the top 5 players taken that year. He also certainly would have been gone at #39. There are a lot of interesting guys who come off the draft boards between 16 and 39. Not at all a stretch to say there’s a 50-50 chance that one of those guys will turn out to be one of the top 5 players chosen in that draft.

I really,really don’t get the expectations people are putting on that pick. A top 3 pick I could understand, but a #16 pick is not going to even begin to turn around an organization’s minor league system. It won’t, by itself, raise our ranking at all, most likely. Certainly not right away; a year or two down the road, IF the pick pans out, which for a #16 pick is far from certain.

The secret to improving the system:

(1) Stop trading away prospects (sometimes that is justified, less so now given that the team is in rebuilding mode);
(2) Continue solid drafting;
(3) Hope that some of the players in the lower minors develop;
(4) Time.

Hitting in the #16 pick would rank about eighth on that list. Thinking that the #16 pick by itself will significantly raise the system’s profile is magical thinking at its most extreme, AND setting ourselves up for disappointment. The chance of it being a “difference maker” is maybe one in ten. At best.

I don’t see that any single pick, even if it was #1 overall, is going to affect the system dramatically in the short term. How the Phillies system advances moving foward will have much more to do with how all of the Low-a, SS players drafted over the last couple of season do in 2013.

The best player drafted #16 over the last 15 years was probably Nick Swisher or maybe Brett Lawrie.

One of the dangers of following a high risk/high reward drafting strategy that the Phillies employ (I agree with the strategy) is that there will be periods like now where the risks didn’t pan out. Consider that they’ve only had one player drafted from 2009 to date (D. Ruf) see any time in the majors and most of the players haven’t even seen AA-ball yet.

It is the progress of those players that will make the system sink/swim for the next 2-3 years.

You can’t just look at who was the best player in recent years picked at #16. You have to look at all the players who were available between pick #16 and where the Phillies normally pick. That’s another 20 guys that they could have considered, had we picked #16, rather than where we did last year. At that point, it’s up to the scouts to pick the top talent amont those 20 guys.

Pullin has a lot more safety, there seems to be a growing consensus that Pullin will hit, he doesn’t have a ton of power (maybe it could get to average), but he can really spray good solid contact around the field. He easily should be the starting second baseman in LKW and is a guy who could move quickly if he picks up the positional defense. Cozens has a lot of bust potential, he is a freak right now, but there is swing and miss already and questions of how the body will hold up (not to mention unlike most 18 year olds he has almost reached his physical potential).

I personally have Cozens higher but at a difference of 2-3 spots it isn’t worth the speculation, especially if you are sure Pullin can play second.

I don’t agree with everything they say but there is no need to rebel for the sake of rebelling or trashing guys who are experts in the field. There is a point to respecting the work done and calling them out as idiots when they know much more than I do is just completely egotistical on my part. I think Keith is too low on Biddle but I agree with the report he wrote, BA has a crush on Pettibone I just don’t understand and Ruf was way too high, Sickels’ list confused me at times and there were a lot of names towards the back that made little sense, I did like BP’s list and I am encouraged by their Franco love even though I don’t have him that high, and for Mayo and mlb.com I don’t understand the rankings, they have Morgan graded high but rated low, a love of Martin that seems weird, and are really low on Franco.

But for someone who relies on them for information and insight, and wants this site to be a good place to visit, I have to understand and respect their decisions because they add insight to mine. If you blindly follow your own opinions you will know everything you want because you are too oblivious to know what else is out there.

If BA had it that way, I would want to know what they think is so bad about Cozens. With Mayo, I just shrug my shoulders and move on.

We’ve seen that he or MLB.com update his lists mid-year by forcing guys into empty slots – that suggests to me a guy or an organization that isn’t invested in their reputation with anything other than casual fans. I’m not going to get worked up over it.

I have Cozens 23 but I don’t think that is bad. I like to leave room for the HS kids to move up as opposed to down.

I’m not sure I agree on assigning them to LKW right away. I’d probably keep them in XST and then to WPT. maybe its just me but if you put them in LKW and they struggle and then you send them to WPT that might hurt their confidence more than the other way around.

I actually care a bit more about ‘what’ is said about prospects then ‘where’ they are ranked.
Obviously the national scouting guys spend plenty of time weighing the exact ranking position of certain prospects.
But I figure it is quite difficult, for example, to compare Giles to Pullin. A massive power relief pitcher vs a lower upside hitter, both in the low minors without much draft pedigree or professional history to judge. So I like to read what the scouts like and dislike about each player. I could certainly believe one scout who think Giles fastball is too straight , he will never develop control or a breaking pitch and keep him outside the Top50. At least if the scout writes that I can understand why he is ranked low and read what others say if they rank him higher.

I do think systems should be weighted by Top Tier guys. Those cheap superstars are the most valuable commodity in baseball. Having more of them is better.