A big warning sign for Romney

An array of Republican heavyweights who backed Mitt Romney’s 2008 presidential bid are not yet committed to - and in some cases, downright skeptical of - the former Massachusetts governor’s all-but-certain 2012 campaign.

In each of the traditional early states, top Romney supporters from the last campaign tell POLITICO that they’re hesitant to get behind the nearest thing the GOP has to a frontrunner. His difficulties are particularly acute in Iowa and South Carolina, where his former enthusiasts say they have not heard from him, believe he may be intent on downplaying the states in his second White House run and are openly flirting with his potential rivals.

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But those two states – where Romney had difficulties with their socially conservative electorate in 2008 – aren’t the only ones where the former governor is losing support.

Former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), the top elected official in the Granite State whose endorsement of Romney in 2008 was seen as a pivotal moment, said in an interview that he’s firmly undecided about who he’ll back in next year’s primary.

“I’m listening to all the candidates and have not made any decision,” Gregg told POLITICO. “It’s one of the more open fields I’ve seen over the years. There is no presumptive favorite at this time the way there was with McCain, Bush, Dole and Bush I.”

Asked specifically what Romney needed to do to earn his support again, Gregg, who was a national co-chair of the Bay Stater’s bid in 2008, said flatly: “I haven’t made any decision.”

The list of past Romney supporters now on the fence or on the other side includes high-profile figures like Gregg, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, as well as lesser-known but influential behind-the-scenes players like Iowa power broker Doug Gross and Florida GOP strategist Sally Bradshaw.

It’s inevitable that repeat presidential candidates will lose some supporters and pick up new ones between campaigns, of course, but the hesitation of some influential Republicans to get behind Romney again reveals several insights about the dynamics of the 2012 race.

As much as anything else, it calls into question just how far ahead of the pack he is as the 2012 contenders emerge. Even as Romney tries to project inevitability by signing up top GOP money men in Washington and New York, the defections suggest he’s seen as far from a sure thing even among insiders. After all, if top Republicans were willing to commit to Romney four years ago when he was a lesser known commodity, why won’t they get on board now when he’s a household name in the political circles and clearly among the most formidable candidates for his party’s nomination?

“He benefited in 2008 with some people who were looking for the not-McCain candidate,” contended former Rep. Vin Weber (R-Minn.), who backed Romney in 2008 and still thinks highly of him, but is now a top adviser to Tim Pawlenty. “Romney was the obvious, most broadly acceptable alternative to McCain. And he had the benefit of being a fresh face.”

The flight of some and hesitation of others also specifically highlights some of Romney’s challenges in his second race. In addition to the difficult strategic decisions that await him in Iowa and South Carolina, he also must convince his former backers that he’ll be able to explain away—and overcome—his state healthcare reform plan and address less weighty issues such as whether he can be served effectively by the same inner circle of advisers who ran his campaign four years ago.

“Last time I had a list of twenty questions, this time I just have a few,” said former Iowa state House Speaker Christopher Rants. “I want to know how he is planning on answering his critics in a couple of key areas, and I want an upfront understanding of the game plan and who is calling the shots. If they want me, they’ll talk to me about those things.”