Bernanke on Baseball: A Beacon for D.C.

The Fed chairman says Washington should learn from the Nationals' twin focus on statistics and intangibles

By

Ben S. Bernanke

October 5, 2012

ENLARGE

WASHINGTON - JUNE 19: Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke watches the game between the Washington Nationals and the Toronto Blue Jays at Nationals Park on June 19, 2009 in Washington, DC. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)

People decry the absence of leadership in Washington these days. My response: Look no further than the home-team dugout at Nationals Park.

Under Manager Davey Johnson's confident, laid-back leadership, the Washington Nationals, defying all preseason conventional wisdom, have claimed the 2012 championship of the National League Eastern Division and the best regular-season record in Major League Baseball. Who knows what's ahead? Unabashed Nats fans—and I've been one since the team arrived in town in 2005—can only hope.

During the 1960s and '70s, Davey was a Gold Glove Award-winning second baseman for the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves and other teams. He went on to a fine managerial career that included a 1986 world championship with the New York Mets. This season, at age 69, he has proved indispensable on a team that has thrived despite lack of experience and injuries that have kept many of its star players off the field at times.

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Why? He combines the best of two seemingly at-odds managerial traditions.

As an economist and (naturally enough) a devotee of statistics, I came to thinking about the role of baseball managers through my longtime interest in sabermetrics, the approach pioneered by Bill James and others and brought to life in the book "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. The basic idea is very appealing to an economist: Given the voluminous data available from 130 years of major-league history, it's possible to submit the hoary conventional wisdoms of baseball to rigorous statistical tests. The insights of sabermetrics—such as the importance of on-base percentage, the low value of stolen bases and sacrifice bunts in most situations, and of adjusting for park effects when evaluating player performance—now play a role in every team's thinking.

The alternative view is the traditional scouting approach, putting the highest value on identifying players with the right skills and mental makeup.

In recent years, most baseball teams have combined both approaches. Davey, who earned a degree in mathematics from Trinity University, is the epitome of this head-and-heart consensus. He was an early proponent of the use of statistical analysis in baseball decision-making, and it is clear in his tactical management of games that he is very conversant with sabermetric principles. He well understands, for instance, how to use statistics in determining lineups and pitcher-hitter matchups.

At the same time, Davey is also really good at identifying and nurturing talent. Most strikingly, he has shown himself willing to sacrifice short-term tactical advantage for the long-term benefit of bolstering the confidence of a player in whom he sees great potential. He lets players play through slumps and gives pitchers who have gotten behind a chance to dig themselves out. His reasoning: Giving a promising player the opportunity the prove himself will often do more for the team in the long run than making an ostensibly better tactical decision in the short run—even if it costs the team a game or two.

An example would be Nats shortstop Ian Desmond. A player of great promise, he struggled both offensively and defensively at times during past seasons. Some even questioned his ability to play major-league shortstop. But Davey recognized his talent and told Desmond he would be his shortstop for the year.

Ian's response was to have an absolutely sensational season. This year, he has had the best OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of any shortstop in the major leagues. His fielding percentage is the highest, and his errors the lowest, of his career so far. He was named to the National League All-Star team and is one of the major reasons for the Nats' success.

The point is that Davey fully appreciates the importance of making decisions based on factual evidence and rigorous analysis. He strikes the right balance between relying on the tangible (data) and the intangible (confidence and motivation) and shows the rare ability of being able to make the right trade-off between winning the day's game and motivating a player who will help the team win in the long run.

These trade-offs don't always pay off, but many times they do, and the high success rate is a reflection of Davey's ability and judgment—and that of the Nationals' outstanding general manager, Mike Rizzo. Together they have created a team that is not only strong this year but very probably will be for years to come.

Many of us in Washington could learn a thing or two from the Nationals' approach.

—Mr. Bernanke is chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

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