Report: Australia on track to become one of worst polluters

July 8, 2019

Australia
is on track to be one of the world’s major climate polluters, responsible for
up to 17 per cent of global emissions by 2030, according to new research from
the Berlin-based institute Climate Analytics.

The
modeling is based on a combination of factors: if the rest of the world adopts
policies consistent with the Paris Agreement, and when emissions from
Australia’s current coal, oil and gas exports from its domestic market (1.4 per
cent of the global total) is combined with its export emissions, bringing the
total up to five per cent.

Climate Analytics finds this is equivalent to the total emissions of Russia – ranked the fifth biggest CO2 emitter globally – beaten only by India, the European Union, the USA and China.

“Australia is the world’s largest coal
(thermal and metallurgical) exporter, accounting for about 29 per cent of
traded coal globally in 2016 and will soon be the world’s largest natural gas
(LNG) exporter,” the report says.

“As a consequence, Australia’s global carbon footprint is very significant, with exported fossil fuel emissions currently representing around 3.6 per cent of global emissions. In 2017, Australian coal and gas exports produced around 2.9 per cent and 0.6 per cent of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion respectively.

“The results of this
analysis show that if current government and industry projections for fossil
fuel exports are realised, Australia could be responsible (including both
domestic and exported emissions) for about 13 per cent (between 11.9 per cent –
17.4 per cent) of Paris Agreement compatible global CO2 emissions in 2030. By
far the largest growth would be coming from coal exports.”

The report also warns
that the global market for natural gas in the power and heat sectors will
likely rapidly decline from the 2030s as the world meets its Paris agreement
goals. It states there is a transitional role for gas, but it is limited and
doesn’t require further expansion of gas production. That implies exploration
for additional reserves beyond 2020 will become a stranded asset.