POWER RANKINGS: Here's who has the best chance at being our next president

AP Photo/Charles Krupa
In fewer than 70 days, the first votes of the 2016 presidential primary will be cast.

The last month in the respective Republican and Democratic primaries have taken distinctly different turns.

Since Vice President Joe Biden declined to enter the race, former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has cemented herself as the clear Democratic front-runner.

The Republican field, meanwhile, has something of a "free-for-all" feel. A man who was long expected to fade by now, real-estate tycoon Donald Trump, continues to lead almost every national and early-state polls.

Behind him is fellow political "outsider" Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon, and three other, more experienced candidates: US Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Florida) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The feeling is that a slew of candidates in the still-crowded field can win.

Our rankings are based on the Real Clear Politics averages of national polls and those in the first-voting states of New Hampshire, Iowa, and South Carolina. We also factor in candidates' fundraising prowess and their momentum (or lack thereof) over the past few weeks, especially after each party's debates earlier this month.

15. Rick Santorum, Republican, former senator from Pennsylvania

It's sometimes easy to forget that Santorum won 11 states in his 2012 primary matchup with Mitt Romney, the eventual Republican nominee — including the Iowa caucus.

That's because he still hasn't even been a blip on the radar in the 2016 race.

He is facing stauncher competition this time around, and he has not solved his biggest problem from 2012: money. He raised less than $400,000 in the latest fundraising quarter and had just more than $200,000 cash on hand, the kind of money that doesn't bode well for staying power in a crowded field.

The state that provided his biggest win in 2012, Iowa, also hasn't given him the same kind of love. Despite focusing on the Hawkeye State, he still barely registers in polling there, placing 11th in an average of recent polls. He has lingered around that level since he entered the race.

14. Lindsey Graham, Republican, senator from South Carolina

He hardly registers in Iowa. He barely shows up in New Hampshire polling. In his home state of South Carolina, he's just seventh in a crowded field.

The Republican base has soured on Graham's support of immigration reform and his distinct split from Trump on the topic. Far more voters, as polls have shown, have instead rallied around Trump.

"Donald Trump is the most uninformed person I've ever met running for president when it comes to foreign policy," Graham said recently. "He has no clue of what he's talking about. He doesn't understand how to destroy ISIL. ... President Obama doesn't have a clue of what he's doing. Don't replace President Obama with Donald Trump. It will get worse, not better."

13. Martin O'Malley, Democrat, former Maryland governor

O'Malley has watched as Bernie Sanders has entrenched himself as the progressive alternative to Hillary Clinton, outflanking O'Malley's attempts to outflank Clinton from the left.

Despite a vigorous campaign schedule, O'Malley is still not well-known nationally, and he has been unable to boost his poll numbers even in a three-way race.

O'Malley has an accomplished progressive record as governor, with achievements — on immigration, criminal justice, gay marriage, and healthcare, among others — that he can legitimately tout to Democratic voters.

But he hasn't been able to break out of the doldrums, even with solid performances in the first two Democratic presidential debates. O'Malley recently shifted more of his campaign staff to Iowa, where he'll need a strong showing to continue on the trail.

12. Mike Huckabee, Republican, former Arkansas governor

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Huckabee has continued an attempt to endear himself to conservative, evangelical voters. But something is clearly not working.

The first part of his presumed theoretical path to the nomination — winning Iowa, the state he captured in 2008 — is in serious limbo. He polls just seventh in the Hawkeye State, and he has kept slipping there over the past few months.

This Republican field may be too crowded for a candidate like Huckabee. He is extremely popular with evangelical conservatives, but many of those conservatives look as if they're flocking to candidates such as Carson, Cruz, and even Trump.

11. Rand Paul, Republican, senator from Kentucky

REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Paul is the unconventional candidate of the Republican field. But he has so far been unable to latch on and break through as a clear top-tier candidate. And his problems have only been exacerbated over the past few months.

Paul's advisers have touted some choice polls lately, but the candidate has not been able to break through from his initial plunge over the summer and early fall. Of particular note is his drop in Iowa, where he has fallen from second (9.8%) in July to ninth (2%).

Paul raised about $2.5 million in the third fundraising quarter, but he entered the late-year stretch with just more than $2 million cash on hand.

10. John Kasich, Republican, Ohio governor

Kasich sits just ninth in polls nationally. And in New Hampshire, where he had surged amid investing significant resources, he's only in sixth place.

Those who talk up Kasich believe he is a Chris Christie-type without the baggage of the past year and a half — that is, a successful governor with a record to point to and clear bipartisan appeal. He also has a plethora of experience from serving nearly two decades in Congress, including foreign-policy areas and his time as chair of the US House Budget Committee.

But that same bipartisan brand could hurt Kasich with the GOP base. He is to the left of most GOP candidates on immigration reform, and he expanded the federal Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act — two issues that could doom him with hard-line conservatives.

9. Chris Christie, Republican, New Jersey governor

AP Photo/Morry Gash

The last month has provided Christie with some of his first legitimate momentum since he entered the race in June.

He shone in the most recent Republican debate, in which he was relegated to the lower-tier, "undercard" affair. Since then, he has seen an uptick nationally, in Iowa, and in New Hampshire, the latter of which is a crucial part of his theoretical path to the nomination.

He still places just seventh, however, in the Granite State, behind fellow establishment-type candidates like Rubio, Bush, and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. But he has reversed a trend of lingering unpopularity there, according to two recent polls.

And Christie could further benefit from an increased focus on national security after the terrorist attacks in Paris earlier this month.

8. Carly Fiorina, Republican, former Hewlett-Packard CEO

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Fiorina surged after she stole the show with a stunning performance during the lower-tier Republican debate in August. She continued her role when she took it to the other candidates on the main stage in September.

Her debate performances have cemented a candidacy that had gained a reliable following among the Republican base since her announcement, as she consistently drew some of the most head-nodding crowds at large GOP summits.

But amid her rise has come more scrutiny over her record at Hewlett-Packard, and she has dipped from her third-place standing in national polls at the height of her climb.

Still, she has experience as a business executive that few others in the field can point to, and she has been one of Hillary Clinton's fiercest critics. And there's another debate coming up.

7. Bernie Sanders, Democrat, senator from Vermont

Though Sanders is entrenched as the alternative to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, Vice President Joe Biden's decision not to run has clearly hurt more than it has helped.

He has lost ground to Clinton nationally and in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina. And in New Hampshire, where he had surged ahead of her over the summer, Sanders now sits in second.

But Sanders' campaign shocked political observers by raising more than $27 million last quarter, more than any Republican presidential candidate and just $3 million behind Clinton. His momentum, and the grassroots support and donations behind it, have evoked comparisons to then-Sen. Barack Obama's rise in 2008.

6. Jeb Bush, Republican, former Florida governor

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October was billed as a crucial month for the Bush campaign. November was supposed to be even more important. And Bush is now running out of months before the first contests to turn around his campaign.

Bush, once viewed as the clear front-runner, has seen Donald Trump sap the momentum he had built after his official campaign announcement in June. His poll numbers have slumped across the board — his 17% national average in July has dipped almost 12 points over the past four months.

Bush has showed, however, that he is a dynamic fundraiser. And he retains significant resources that could prove to be a game-changer in the long haul.

An aligned super PAC raised more than $100 million in the first six months of the year. And Bush enters the home stretch with more cash on hand for the primary than any candidate aside from Cruz and Ben Carson.

5. Ben Carson, Republican, retired neurosurgeon

Like Trump, Carson is a Washington outsider who has shown that he can appeal to a broader electorate.

Carson has also shown some fund-raising prowess: He raised nearly $21 million last quarter, more than any other Republican candidate. He enters the home stretch with more than $11 million in cash on hand.

But his time in the intense spotlight looks like it might finally be taking its toll. He has dipped back to second place in Iowa, as he has seen more established candidates like Cruz and Rubio rise. And his national poll numbers have dipped five points over the past month.

4. Ted Cruz, Republican, senator from Texas

Cruz has quietly run an under-the-radar campaign that has put him in sneakily good position to be one of the finalists for the nomination.

It's finally starting to pay off.

Cruz is amid the top tier of GOP polling, and he surged to a near-tie for first place with Trump in a recent Iowa survey.

Meanwhile, his eye-popping fundraising numbers mean that he will most likely be in the race for the long haul. He raised the third-most of any Republican candidate last quarter, and he has the most cash on hand entering the home stretch.

Cruz inspires a flood of enthusiasm among the GOP base, and he may be the best-positioned candidate from within the political sphere to back up the notion that he's not a typical politician, that he is the outsider the base wants despite his day job in Washington.

3. Marco Rubio, Republican, senator from Florida

Rubio is quickly becoming the establishment favorite for the Republican nomination.

He's a younger alternative in the Republican crowd, and he counts supporters among the establishment and the more conservative GOP base. He has had strong performances in each of the four prime-time GOP debates.

And the polling is starting to catch up with the hype. He is now third in national polls, continuing to slowly rise against Carson and Trump. And he has bumped significantly in Iowa and, especially, New Hampshire over the past two months.

One concern is his fundraising: He raised less than $6 million in the latest quarter. But deep-pocketed donors are showing signs of potentially rallying around him.

2. Donald Trump, Republican, businessman

AP Photo/Jim Cole

Trump has lit the political world on fire since his entry into the race early this summer. And he has showed surprising staying power — we're now on month No. 6 of the Trump show.

There's a clear appetite among Republican primary voters for someone like Trump, from the moment he entered the race to controversy surrounding his position on illegal immigration. Business Insider discovered more of that when we followed him on the trail for a week earlier this month.

1. Hillary Clinton, Democrat, former secretary of state

Clinton is No. 1 here because she has proved formidable in polling and fundraising — and she clearly looks to be able to glide to the nomination, perhaps early on in the voting process.

The summer provided sign after sign of her potential vulnerabilities as a candidate. She has seen Sanders sap enthusiasm — and supporters — in key early states like Iowa and, especially, New Hampshire. Her popularity plunged. And she trailed a host of leading Republican candidates.

But she has turned things around in the fall. She's up overwhelmingly in Iowa, back on top in New Hampshire, and in South Carolina, her 70% showing is a signal of her "firewall" after the first two voting states.

Meanwhile, she has continued to clean up on the fundraising circuit. She raised more than any other presidential candidate last quarter — almost $30 million — and she holds a whopping $33 million cash on hand.