Exclusive: MH370 satellite data released

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Story highlights

Plane sent "handshake" signals for six hours after it disappeared in March 2014

Inmarsat vice president Mark Dickinson says data has been checked and checked again

Lengthy searches in the southern Indian Ocean have so far found no trace of the plane

In the aviation mystery which has baffled the world there is one fundamental question which continues to swirl: Has Inmarsat got its numbers right?

It was these very calculations which led the search for MH370 far from the plane's original route across South East Asia and deep into the southern Indian Ocean, off the west coast of Australia. No piece of work is more important in the search for the plane.

I was given exclusive access to the satellite experts who did the ground-breaking work. Time and again, I would ask them the toughest question: "Are you right?"

But before we get there ... How did the data come to light in the first place?

Once the plane went missing, the ground station in Perth checked the logs and discovered that while the aircraft's communications systems were switched off, the plane and the satellite still kept saying "hello" to each other, every hour.

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The search for MH37048 photos

Relatives of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 console each other outside the Malaysia Airlines office in Subang, Malaysia, on Thursday, February 12. Protesters demanded that the airline withdraw the statement made in January that all the passengers aboard the plane are dead. The plane, which disappeared on March 8, has not been found.

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A policewoman watches a couple whose son was on board the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 cry outside the airline's office building in Beijing after officials refused to meet with them on June 11, 2014. The search for the missing plane has been ongoing since early 2014.

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Members of the media scramble to speak with Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, director general of Malaysia's Civil Aviation Department, at a hotel in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on May 27, 2014. Data from communications between satellites and missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 was released the day before, more than two months after relatives of passengers say they requested that it be made public.

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Operators aboard the Australian ship Ocean Shield move Bluefin-21, the U.S. Navy's autonomous underwater vehicle, into position to search for the jet on April 14, 2014.

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A member of the Royal New Zealand Air Force looks out of a window while searching for debris off the coast of western Australia on April 13, 2014.

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The Echo moves through the waters of the southern Indian Ocean on April 12, 2014.

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A Royal Australian Air Force AP-3C Orion, on a mission to drop sonar buoys to assist in the search, flies past the Australian vessel Ocean Shield on April 9, 2014.

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A relative of a missing passenger cries at a vigil in Beijing on April 8, 2014.

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Australian Defense Force divers scan the water for debris in the southern Indian Ocean on April 7, 2014.

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A towed pinger locator is readied to be deployed off the deck of the Australian vessel Ocean Shield on April 7, 2014.

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A member of the Royal New Zealand Air Force looks at a flare in the Indian Ocean during search operations on April 4, 2014.

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A member of the Japanese coast guard points to a flight position data screen while searching for debris from the missing jet on April 1, 2014.

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On March 30, 2014, a woman in Kuala Lumpur prepares for an event in honor of those aboard Flight 370.

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A Royal New Zealand Air Force member launches a GPS marker buoy over the southern Indian Ocean on March 29, 2014.

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The sole representative for the families of Flight 370 passengers leaves a conference at a Beijing hotel on March 28, 2014, after other relatives left en masse to protest the Malaysian government's response to their questions.

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A member of the Royal Australian Air Force is silhouetted against the southern Indian Ocean during the search for the missing jet on March 27, 2014.

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Flight Lt. Jayson Nichols looks at a map aboard a Royal Australian Air Force aircraft during a search on March 27, 2014.

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People in Kuala Lumpur light candles during a ceremony held for the missing flight's passengers on March 27, 2014.

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Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, delivers a statement about the flight on March 24, 2014. Razak's announcement came after the airline sent a text message to relatives saying it "deeply regrets that we have to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that MH 370 has been lost and that none of those onboard survived."

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Grieving relatives of missing passengers leave a hotel in Beijing on March 24, 2014.

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Ground crew members wave to a Japanese Maritime Defense Force patrol plane as it leaves the Royal Malaysian Air Force base in Subang, Malaysia, on March 23, 2014. The plane was heading to Australia to join a search-and-rescue operation.

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A passenger views a weather map in the departures terminal of Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 22, 2014.

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A Chinese satellite captured this image, released on March 22, 2014, of a floating object in the Indian Ocean, according to China's State Administration of Science. It is a possible lead in the search for the missing plane. Surveillance planes are looking for two objects spotted by satellite imagery in remote, treacherous waters more than 1,400 miles from the west coast of Australia.

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Satellite imagery provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on March 20, 2014, shows debris in the southern Indian Ocean that could be from Flight 370. The announcement by Australian officials that they had spotted something raised hopes of a breakthrough in the frustrating search.

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Another satellite shot provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority shows possible debris from the flight.

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A distraught relative of a missing passenger breaks down while talking to reporters at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 19, 2014.

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On March 18, 2014, a relative of a missing passenger tells reporters in Beijing about a hunger strike to protest authorities' handling of information about the missing jet.

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U.S. Navy crew members assist in search-and-rescue operations in the Indian Ocean on March 16, 2014.

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Members of the Chinese navy continue search operations on March 13, 2014. The search area for Flight 370 has grown wider. After starting in the sea between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane's last confirmed location, efforts are expanding west into the Indian Ocean.

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A Vietnamese military official looks out an aircraft window during search operations March 13, 2014.

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Malaysian air force members look for debris near Kuala Lumpur on March 13, 2014.

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Relatives of missing passengers wait for the latest news at a hotel in Beijing on March 12, 2014.

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Indonesian air force officers in Medan, Indonesia, examine a map of the Strait of Malacca on March 12, 2014.

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A member of the Vietnamese air force checks a map while searching for the missing plane on March 11, 2014.

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Vietnam air force Col. Le Huu Hanh is reflected on the navigation control panel of a plane that is part of the search operation over the South China Sea on March 10, 2014.

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A Vietnamese air force plane found traces of oil that authorities had suspected to be from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, the Vietnamese government online newspaper reported on March 8, 2014. However, a sample from the slick showed it was bunker oil, typically used to power large cargo ships, Malaysia's state news agency, Bernama, reported on March 10, 2014.

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A U.S. Navy Seahawk helicopter lands aboard the USS Pinckney to change crews on March 9, 2014, before returning to search for the missing plane in the Gulf of Thailand.

Italian tourist Luigi Maraldi, who reported his passport stolen in August, shows his current passport during a news conference at a police station in Phuket island, Thailand, on March 9, 2014. Iranians Pouri Nourmohammadi and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza were identified by Interpol as the two men who used stolen passports to board the flight. But there's no evidence to suggest either was connected to any terrorist organizations, according to Malaysian investigators. Malaysian police believe Nourmohammadi was trying to emigrate to Germany using the stolen Austrian passport.

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Vietnamese air force crew stand in front of a plane at Tan Son Nhat airport in Ho Chi Minh City on March 9, 2014, before heading out to the area between Vietnam and Malaysia where the airliner vanished.

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Buddhist monks at Kuala Lumpur International Airport offer a special prayer for the missing passengers on March 9, 2014.

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The Chinese navy warship Jinggangshan prepares to leave Zhanjiang Port early on March 9, 2014, to assist in search-and-rescue operations for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight. The Jinggangshan, an amphibious landing ship, is loaded with lifesaving equipment, underwater detection devices and supplies of oil, water and food.

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Members of a Chinese emergency response team board a rescue vessel at the port of Sanya in China's Hainan province on March 9, 2014. The vessel is carrying 12 divers and will rendezvous with another rescue vessel on its way to the area where contact was lost with Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

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The rescue vessel sets out from Sanya in the South China Sea on March 9, 2014.

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Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, arrives to meet family members of missing passengers at the reception center at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8, 2014.

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A relative of two missing passengers reacts at their home in Kuala Lumpur on March 8, 2014.

After the alert had been raised at the company's London headquarters, engineers began urgently interpreting the raw data.

Dickinson explains: "We have some timing information ... that allows you to essentially work out the distance from the satellite ... and in addition to that there were some frequency measurements."

Using the discrepancy of satellite frequency known as the Doppler Effect, the team spent ten days refining their work before they briefed the Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, who stunned the world by revealing the plane's flight had ended in the South Indian Ocean.

Dickinson says that when he realized what had probably happened, his reaction was: "Let's check this and let's check it again, because you want to make sure when you come to a conclusion like that you have done the right work... As good engineers we are trained to check and check again."

So why is Dickinson so sure he is right? Because the model they created showing arcs and Doppler readings was rigorously tested, initially on other aircraft on the satellite at the same time, and then against previous flights by the same aircraft. With minor disagreements both the position and the Doppler reading of those aircraft was predicted accurately.

Other organizations created their own models, ran the comparisons and came to the same conclusions. It is essential to understand: This is not just Inmarsat's frolic.

"No-one has come up yet with a reason why it shouldn't work with this particular flight when it has worked with others," Dickinson told me. "It's very important that this isn't just an Inmarsat activity."

So why haven't they found the plane where Inmarsat says it should be? Simply put, it's a big ocean, the ocean floor is very deep, with valleys and hills. In the bigger picture, the search has really only just begun.

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The satellite company has extracted the crucial lines from the logs and has published it with an explanation and analysis. They have not published the raw computer pages which is likely to raise questions about why not.

Inmarsat says nothing important has been left out, but that the raw data would not have been understandable on its own. The goal of publication is transparency, not verification.

"What this provides is some transparency on what actual data came back and forwards between the plane and the ground station... How that data has subsequently been used so it allows people to see what technique. I'm hoping a great deal of transparency in terms of the analysis by Inmarsat," says Dickinson.

So, will the publication quell the critics? Probably not. They want every last digit and bit of data so they can re-create the work, something that is impossible without detailed knowledge of the plane's modem, the satellite's own movement and the performance capabilities of the 777 aircraft.

Having covered this story from the moment the plane was lost, I know only too well that the everything hinges on Inmarsat's data.

Could Dickinson be wrong? As an engineer he is, of course open to the possibility, but he insists his data has been "checked and checked ... to make sure we've got it right. Checked against other flights in the area at the same time; checked against previous flights of this aircraft. At the moment there is no reason to doubt -- I believe what this data says."

And that is the heart of the matter. Inmarsat and others will never say they are convinced, they are not those sorts of people. Certainty is the prerogative of those of us less rigorously trained to consider fallibility. Inmarsat's engineers will just rely on the numbers.