Primarily a collection of news links about all 10 Horizon League teams on a daily basis, culled from online newspapers, school athletic websites, the conference website, and school newspapers, plus some other content from time to time.

Valpo's win over CSU clinched the 1 seed and hosting duties. And with that, all RPI ties are gone.

Today's Green Bay-Oakland game settles the remainder of the top 4 seeds. If Green Bay wins, they get the 2 seed, Oakland gets the 3 seed, and CSU gets the 4 seed (Oakland wins the tiebreaker with CSU because they split with Valpo while CSU was swept by Valpo0.

The winner of the WSU-UIC game gets the 6 seed as the only team of the lower 3 to have 4 wins.

If YSU beats Milwaukee, they win the tiebreaker with the loser of the WSU-UIC game and get the 7 seed (they would be the only team of the 3 to beat 5th place Milwaukee, now that the top 4 teams have swept all 3), and the loser of WSU-UIC would get the 8 seed.

If YSU loses to Milwaukee, they get the 8 seed and the loser of WSU-UIC gets the 7 seed.

Today's games:

Oakland at Green Bay - Winner gets the 2 seed
Wright State at UIC - Winner gets the 6 seed
Milwaukee at Youngstown State - YSU gets the 7 seed with a win

So much for a showdown in Cleveland on Friday night. Milwaukee pulled off a 66-60 win over
visiting Cleveland State, putting the Vikings two games back in the loss column. That means Valparaiso can clinch the regular season title with a win at Detroit on Wednesday night. If Detroit wins, Cleveland State can tie the Crusaders with a win on Friday night.

It’s starting to look like no one wants to win the Horizon League. Valparaiso had a chance to wrap up the regular season title but lost to Detroit 63-60. The Crusaders appeared to tighten up late, forcing a terrible shot on their final possession and then committing a bad foul on Juwan Howard, Jr.’s fall-away turnaround three-point attempt with 1.3 seconds left, after which Howard hit the three deciding free throws.

Keifer Sykes scored 36 points as Wisconsin-Green Bay held off Illinois-Chicago 72-67. More on the Horizon League race below.
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Tonight’s Menu: Full Ivy League and heavy MAAC schedules, plus a few others

Valparaiso at Cleveland State (10 p.m. EST, ESPNU) It the Crusaders win, it’s simple: Valpo takes the Horizon League title outright and gets one of the two double byes into the semifinals of the conference tourney, which it would host as the No. 1 seed. If the Vikings win, then Valpo cannot win the title and tiebreakers will decide the top seed and tournament host between CSU and the winner of Saturday’s Green Bay/Oakland game.

Keifer Sykes – Green Bay. Newsflash: Sykes is still (barely) 6’0’’ and dunking like he’s 6’6’’. This latest high-flying installment came at the expense of Detroit’s Paris Bass last Wednesday night. That’s right Paris… just get out of his way.

20 points (8-for-14 FG), 14 assists (two turnovers) and five rebounds in the Golden Grizzlies’ 81-56 win over UIC.
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NOTABLES
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J.J. Panoske scored 19 points to lead four players in double figures as Milwaukee beat Cleveland State 66-60. The Vikings’ loss means that Valparaiso clinched at least a share of the Horizon League regular season title.

Valparaiso held off Wright State in its only game of the week to keep hold of first place in the Horizon League. The Crusaders have won seven games in a row.
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14. Green Bay (21-7, 10-4 Horizon). Last week: 7

Green Bay fell out of the Horizon League title race Friday with an overtime loss at home to Cleveland State. The Phoenix finish the season with games they should be favored in against UIC and Oakland. Now their focus will turn to getting the No. 2 in the Horizon League Tournament, which would still give them a bye to the conference semifinals.

Valparaiso played only game this week, and the Crusaders won thanks to a great performance from sophomore forward Alec Peters. Peters posted a double-double with 17 points and 10 rebounds to go along with a pair of steals. He shoot 7-of-14 from the field, including a pair of 3-pointers.

What's to like: How can you not like the Crusaders for an upset, when they're coached by the ultimate Cinderella-moment-maker, Bryce Drew? If that's not enough, Valpo has the sort of singular player who can make March magic happen in Alec Peters. The sophomore averages 17 points and 6.7 boards a night and has failed to reach double figures just four times this season. And, in a wildly competitive Horizon League, the Crusaders have won seven in a row and 12 of their past 13.

If Valpo beats CSU they get the 1 seed. If Valpo loses to CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Valpo gets the 2 seed (Valpo wins the tiebreaker because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them). If they lose to CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Valpo ends up with the 3 seed because Oakland also sweeps Green Bay while Valpo only split with them.

If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker with Green Bay. If they lose to Valpo and Green Bay wins out, CSU gets the 4 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with Oakland since they get swept by Valpo while Oakland split with them.

Oakland's only shot at the 1 seed is mentioned above in the RPI tiebreaker with CSU. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed without the need for tiebreakers. If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay wins out, Oakland gets the 4 seed because the other 3 teams are 12-4. If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Oakland gets the 3 seed because they win a two-way tiebreaker with CSU (only team to beat Valpo).

Green Bay gets the 2 seed if they win out and Valpo beats CSU. All the tiebreakers are bad for them, so the only way is for both CSU and Oakland to finish 11-5. They get the 3 seed if they win out and CSU beats Valpo (they lose the 3-way tiebreaker with Valpo and CSU but finish 1 game ahead of Oakland). If they lose to Oakland, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with CSU (head-to-head) and get the 4 seed.

UIC can clinch the 6 seed simply by beating WSU. If WSU beats UIC and Milwaukee beats YSU, UIC ends up with the 7 seed (they finish at least one game behind WSU and they finish ahead of YSU. If WSU beats UIC and YSU beats Milwaukee, UIC gets the 8 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with YSU (Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and sweeps UIC but splits with YSU).

WSU gets the 6 seed if they beat UIC and the 7 seed if UIC beats them and Milwaukee beats YSU. If they lose and YSU beats Milwaukee, WSU gets the 8 seed because they were swept by Milwaukee while YSU split with them (NOTE: this is a correction from my previous post. SECOND NOTE: if Milwaukee doesn't participate in tiebreakers as a common opponent, Detroit would break this tie for WSU instead)

YSU gets the 7 seed if they beat Milwaukee because they win the tiebreaker over either WSU or UIC because both were swept by Milwaukee (likewise, the winner of the WSU-UIC game gets the 6 seed while the loser gets the 7 seed). If they lose to Milwaukee, they of course end up with the 8 seed.

Tonight's games:

Valpo at Cleveland State - Valpo can absolutely claim the 1 seed; Cleveland State can most likely claim the 1 seed (they currently lead in the RPI over Oakland by about 19 points).

This year my tiebreaker analysis is going to be less than 100% definite because I have not heard yet exactly how the Horizon League office is treating Milwaukee in it's application of the tiebreakers. Obviously they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, therefore they are ineligible for the Horizon League tournament.

I'm going to go out on a limb and base my analysis on the following premise: all of Milwaukee's league games count for the teams they played, therefore the proper thing to do is pretend that Milwaukee is eligible and then at the very end delete them from the list and move everybody lower up one slot.

has turned out to be much ado about nothing. The only context in which things could have gotten complicated is when Detroit and Milwaukee both finish 7-9. The only top 4 team who would function as a tiebreaker for these two teams is Valpo, and in these scenarios, Detroit would win the tiebreaker anyway. There are 4 of these scenarios that also include a tie for 1st between CSU and Oakland, so procedurally we're not supposed to break this tie until we break that one, but it turns out that CSU and Oakland both split with each team, so Milwaukee-Detroit isn't breaking that tie -- in fact, as mentioned before, nobody can break that tie, it has to be broken by RPI. Moreover, it doesn't matter which of the two wins that tiebreaker, that team is not going to be able to break the Milwaukee-Detroit tie. Only Valpo can (Green Bay gets swept by both teams so they don't resolve anything either.

Detroit managed to keep CSU alive for the 1 seed, and in fact the Vikings once again control their own destiny (with the possible exception of RPI tiebreakers, where they depend on their non-conference opponents to help them).

If Valpo beats CSU they get the 1 seed. If Valpo loses to CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Valpo gets the 2 seed (even if Green Bay beats UIC, Valpo wins the tiebreaker because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them). If they lose to CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Valpo ends up with the 3 seed because Oakland also sweeps Green Bay while Valpo only split with them.

If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland and UIC beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 2 seed. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, CSU gets the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker with Green Bay. If they lose to Valpo and Green Bay wins out, CSU gets the 4 seed because they lose the tiebrekaer with Oakland since they get swept by Valpo while Oakland split with them.

Oakland's only shot at the 1 seed is mentioned above in the RPI tiebreaker with CSU. The same RPI tiebreaker for 2nd place no longer exists because Valpo lost to Detroit. If Valpo beats CSU and Oakland beats Green Bay, Oakland gets the 2 seed without the need for tiebreakers. If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay wins out, Oakland gets the 4 seed because the other 3 teams are 12-4. If Valpo beats CSU and Green Bay beats Oakland, Oakland gets the 3 seed because they win a two-way tiebreaker with CSU (with Green Bay beating UIC) and in a 3-way tie with CSU and Green Bay, they finish in the middle of the 3 (CSU 3-1, Oakland 2-2, Green Bay 1-3). If CSU beats Valpo and Green Bay beats Oakland and UIC beats Green Bay, they get the 3 seed because they win the tiebreaker over Green Bay because they split with CSU while Green Bay was swept by them.

Green Bay gets the 2 seed if they win out and Valpo beats CSU. All the tiebreakers are bad for them, so the only way is for both CSU and Oakland to finish 11-5. They get the 3 seed if they win out and CSU beats Valpo (they lose the 3-way tiebreaker with Valpo and CSU but finish 1 game ahead of Oakland). If they beat Oakland but lose to UIC, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with Oakland (common opponent CSU) and the 3-way tiebreaker with Oakland and CSU (head-to-head-to-head) and in either case get the 4 seed. If they lose to Oakland, they lose the 2-way tiebreaker with CSU (head-to-head) and get the 4 seed.

Now for the lower 3: YSU plays Milwaukee, so they've already split with UIC and WSU. WSU has Milwaukee and UIC left to play and they need a win over UIC to gain a split with them. So the WSU-UIC game is only one left between these 3 teams. WSU and UIC are tied for 8th at 3-11, YSU brings up the rear at 2-12.

If WSU beats UIC, then any ties would have to resort to common opponents. If UIC beats WSU, UIC would have the upper hand in a 3-way tie or a tie with WSU.

Thus, UIC can clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they lose to WSU they can still get the 6 seed if they beat Green Bay (since WSU and YSU both were swept by the Phoenix) and WSU loses to Milwaukee. If they beat WSU but lose to Green Bay, they of course win a tiebreaker with WSU (there is no longer a 3-way tie at 4-12). If WSU beats UIC and Milwaukee wins out and Green Bay beats UIC, UIC ends up with the 7 seed (they finish at least one game behind WSU and they finish tied with or ahead of YSU and they win a tiebreaker with YSU since they split with Detroit while YSU was swept by them (Green Bay, Oakland, CSU, and Valpo all sweep both teams). If WSU beats UIC but loses to Milwaukee and YSU beats Milwaukee and Green Bay beats UIC, UIC gets the 8 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with YSU (Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and sweeps UIC but splits with YSU).

If WSU beats Milwaukee, Milwaukee and Detroit tie at 7-9. Detroit wins the tiebreaker because of their win over Valpo (in addition to being eligible), and Detroit swept YSU while splitting with UIC, so UIC gets the 7 seed in this tiebreaker with YSU.

WSU can also clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they beat UIC but lose to Milwaukee, UIC would still have to lose to Green Bay in order for WSU to gain the 6 seed. If WSU beats Milwaukee but loses to UIC, WSU gets the 7 seed because they lose the tiebreaker with UIC or finish one game behind them. They can't fall to the 8 seed because if they lose out and YSU beats Milwaukee, Detroit breaks the tie in favor of WSU.

YSU can't get the 6 seed for the same reason. If they beat Milwaukee and Milwaukee beats WSU, they tie with either UIC or WSU for 8th place. Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit and they favor YSU in either case, so YSU would get the 7 seed. If YSU loses to Milwaukee OR YSU beats Milwaukee and WSU and UIC each win OR YSU beats Milwaukee and WSU wins out and Green Bay beats UIC, YSU gets the 8 seed because Detroit sweeps YSU while splitting with UIC.

Tonight's games:

Milwaukee at Wright State - Milwaukee can clinch sole possession of 5th place (for any solace that gives them) and thus assert themselves as a higher tiebreaker than Detroit, Wright State can keep control of their own destiny for the 6 seed.
Green Bay at UIC - UIC can increase their influence as a tiebreaker and avoid having to meet Detroit next Tuesday, Green Bay can keep alive their pursuit of a 2 seed

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

This year my tiebreaker analysis is going to be less than 100% definite because I have not heard yet exactly how the Horizon League office is treating Milwaukee in it's application of the tiebreakers. Obviously they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, therefore they are ineligible for the Horizon League tournament.

I'm going to go out on a limb and base my analysis on the following premise: all of Milwaukee's league games count for the teams they played, therefore the proper thing to do is pretend that Milwaukee is eligible and then at the very end delete them from the list and move everybody lower up one slot.

has turned out to be much ado about nothing. The only context in which things could have gotten complicated is when Detroit and Milwaukee both finish 7-9. The only top 4 team who would function as a tiebreaker for these two teams is Valpo, and in these scenarios, Detroit would win the tiebreaker anyway. There are 4 of these scenarios that also include a tie for 1st between CSU and Oakland, so procedurally we're not supposed to break this tie until we break that one, but it turns out that CSU and Oakland both split with each team, so Milwaukee-Detroit isn't breaking that tie -- in fact, as mentioned before, nobody can break that tie, it has to be broken by RPI. Moreover, it doesn't matter which of the two wins that tiebreaker, that team is not going to be able to break the Milwaukee-Detroit tie. Only Valpo can (Green Bay gets swept by both teams so they don't resolve anything either.

In short, Detroit is the 5th seed as mentioned in my previous post, and Milwaukee sits there in the middle with them, waiting to see if any other teams need it to break a tie.

To summarize the top 4: Valpo gets the 1 seed by winning one or both of their remaining games. They get the 2 seed if they lose out and Oakland loses at least once. Finally they lose a 3-way tie with CSU and Oakland to get the 3 seed.

CSU gets the 1 seed if they beat Valpo and Detroit beats Valpo and Oakland loses at least once more. If Oakland instead wins out, RPI breaks the tie.

If Valpo gets the 1 seed, CSU gets the 2 seed if they beat Valpo and Oakland loses once more or if they lose to Valpo and Oakland loses out and Green Bay loses to UIC. In either case, if they end up in a 2-way tie with Oakland, RPI will be needed to break the tie and they still could end up with the 2 seed.

If they lose to Valpo they get the 3 seed if Oakland beats Green Bay or if Green Bay wins out and YSU beats Oakland. Otherwise, they get the 4 seed.

Oakland's only shot at the 1 seed is mentioned above in the RPI tiebreaker with CSU. Likewise, if they win out and CSU beats Valpo (who in turn beats Detroit), the same RPI tiebreaker has to break this tie (Valpo is not a tiebreaker in this case because each will split with them; Green Bay is not because each will sweep them). If Oakland wins out and CSU loses to Valpo, Oakland gets the 2 seed. If they beat Green Bay or if they beat YSU and Green Bay loses to UIC, they are guaranteed at least a 3 seed via tiebreakers (head-to-head over Green Bay or Valpo as common opponent if CSU loses to Valpo). Otherwise they end up with the 4 seed.

Green Bay gets the 2 seed if they win out and Valpo beats CSU. All the tiebreakers are bad for them, so the only way is for both CSU and Oakland to finish 11-5 or worse. They get at least a 3 seed as long as they finish ahead of Oakland (if Oakland beats YSU, Green Bay has to win out). Otherwise they get the 4 seed.

Now for the lower 3: YSU has Oakland and Milwaukee remaining on their schedule, so they've already split with UIC and WSU. WSU has Milwaukee and UIC left to play and they need a win over UIC to gain a split with them. So the WSU-UIC game is only one left between these 3 teams. WSU and UIC are tied for 8th at 3-11, YSU brings up the rear at 2-12.

If WSU beats UIC, then any ties would have to resort to common opponents. If UIC beats WSU, UIC would have the upper hand in a 3-way tie or a tie with WSU.

Thus, UIC can clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they lose to WSU they can still get the 6 seed if they beat Green Bay (since WSU and YSU both were swept by the Phoenix) and WSU loses to Milwaukee. If they beat WSU but lose to Green Bay, they win the 3-way tiebreaker (3-1 to 2-2 to 1-3) and they of course win a tiebreaker with WSU. They would not win a tiebreaker with YSU since the Penguins would split with Oakland while UIC was swept by them. So UIC gets the 6 seed if they win out, or if they split and YSU loses at least once more.

WSU can also clinch the 6 seed simply by winning out. If they beat UIC but lose to Milwaukee, UIC would still have to lose to Green Bay in order for WSU to gain the 6 seed. If there's a 3-way tie with YSU at 4-12 with WSU beating UIC, WSU actually wins that tiebreaker if Detroit beats Valpo because Detroit wins the tiebreaker with Milwaukee, and WSU swept Detroit while UIC and YSU each lost at least once to Detroit. So: WSU gets the 6 seed if they win out or if they beat UIC and UIC loses to Green Bay and either Detroit beats Valpo or YSU loses at least once more.

YSU can get the 6 seed if they win out and WSU beats UIC and UIC loses to Green Bay and Valpo beats Detroit (leaving Milwaukee all alone in 5th place for tiebreaker purposes). This would put YSU and WSU in a 2-way tie at 4-12 with Milwaukee as the highest common opponent that can break the tie, and WSU would be swept by Milwaukee in this scenario while YSU splits with them.

Tonight's games:

Valpo at Detroit - Valpo can clinch 1 seed, Detroit already has 5 seed but can increase their tiebreaker influence with a win in cases where Milwaukee loses out (A Valpo loss also sets up a showdown on Friday with CSU for the 1 seed).
YSU at Oakland - Oakland can maintain their slim hopes for a 1 seed (assuming Valpo loses), YSU can maintain their slim hopes for a 6 seed and right to host a first round game

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

This year my tiebreaker analysis is going to be less than 100% definite because I have not heard yet exactly how the Horizon League office is treating Milwaukee in it's application of the tiebreakers. Obviously they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, therefore they are ineligible for the Horizon League tournament.

I'm going to go out on a limb and base my analysis on the following premise: all of Milwaukee's league games count for the teams they played, therefore the proper thing to do is pretend that Milwaukee is eligible and then at the very end delete them from the list and move everybody lower up one slot.

The conference is perfectly split in half. We know that Detroit, UIC, Wright State, and Youngstown State will be playing first round games on Tuesday March 4th, and Valpo, CSU, Green Bay, and Oakland will be waiting for them on Friday.

Thanks to Milwaukee's take down of CSU, Valpo is now the only team in control of their own destiny, though if they lose at Detroit, CSU will regain control over their destiny. But Valpo still gets the 1 seed if they beat CSU. However, they can clinch the 1 seed on Wednesday at Calihan Hall.

Even if they lose both games, they still get the 2 seed if Oakland loses at least one of their remaining games. In a 3-way tie between CSU, Valpo, and Green Bay, CSU wins the tiebreaker (3-1) and Green Bay loses it (1-3), while Valpo sits in the middle (2-2). Replace Green Bay with Oakland and Valpo loses the tiebreaker based on Green Bay as the common opponent, where Valpo is the only team to lose to the Phoenix.

CSU gets the 1 seed if they beat Valpo and Detroit beats Valpo and Oakland loses at least one more game. Green Bay is no threat to CSU because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. If Oakland ties at 12-4, as mentioned above, Valpo drops out first, and there is no common opponent that breaks the remaining tie between Oakland and CSU, so we have to resort to the RPI tiebreaker. rpiforecast.com currently projects CSU as the winner, but I have no idea how sure of a thing that is. I choose to not project but simply leave it hanging.

If CSU beats Valpo and Valpo beats Detroit, CSU gets the 2 seed unless Oakland wins out and wins the RPI tiebreaker. If CSU loses to Valpo, they can still get the 2 seed if Green Bay beats Oakland but loses to UIC. In a 3-way tie at 11-5, CSU is 3-1, Oakland 2-2, and Green Bay 1-3. They also win a 2-way tie with Green Bay as mentioned above.

If CSU loses to Valpo, Green Bay wins out, and Oakland beats YSU, CSU ends up with the 4 seed because they lose the 3rd place tiebreaker with Oakland based on Valpo as a common opponent.

In all the remaining scenarios, CSU gets the 3 seed.

If Green Bay wins out and Valpo beats CSU, Green Bay gets the 2 seed, since CSU and Oakland finish 11-5 or worse.

If Green Bay beats Oakland on Saturday and at least matches their win total during the week, they avoid the 4 seed by winning more games than Oakland. Any Green Bay tie with Oakland breaks in favor of Oakland because of common opponent Cleveland State, if not a head-to-head sweep by Oakland. Therefore, if Green Bay finishes tied with or below Oakland, they end up with the 4 seed (they can only tie at 11-5, and at that record they lose tiebreakers with both CSU and Oakland; if they lose out they must be alone at 10-6).

Detroit and Milwaukee are on an island by themselves. Neither can even tie for 4th, and neither can fall into a tie for 7th. If Detroit beats Valpo and Milwaukee loses out, they tie for 5th place. This accounts for 32 of the 256 possible scenarios. In all but 4 of these scenarios, the tie can be broken simply by virtue of Milwaukee's ineligibility. The remaining 4 scenarios leave the tie in limbo until the tie between CSU and Oakland for first place is resolved using RPI.

In the remaining 224 scenarios, Milwaukee finishes ahead of Detroit. In all 256 scenarios, Detroit ends up with the 5 seed since Milwaukee is ineligible. So we can say unofficially that Detroit will be the 5 seed and host the 8 seed at Calihan Hall on Tuesday March 3rd.

Sunday, February 22, 2015

A pair of games on Tuesday were affected by weather. Cleveland State and Western Carolina were going to play an unusual mid-February non-conference game at WCU as the return game in a two-year contract, but CSU did not travel due to a snow storm. That one has been cancelled with no reschedule date.

Cleveland State at Wisconsin-Green Bay (7 p.m. EST, ESPN2) Two teams tied for second in the Horizon, just one game back of Valparaiso. One would think the Phoenix have too much firepower for the Vikings, but CSU just hasn’t gone away.

Side Dishes
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Cleveland State stayed right with Valparaiso in the Horizon League with a 66-61 overtime win at Green Bay. The two teams were tied entering the night, but it is the Vikings that have a showdown next Friday at home against the Crusaders, and that game could be for all the marbles.

NOTABLES
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Greg Mays (34 points) and Keifer Sykes (23, eight assists and seven rebounds) led Green Bay to a 96-78 win over Detroit. The Phoenix are now tied for second in the Horizon League with Cleveland State (a game behind Valparaiso), and the two teams meet Friday night.

I’m glad Joe used the word “unheralded” because that eliminates Gonzaga, Wichita State and Northern Iowa, all of which are technically midmajors. Here are my top five candidates:

1. Murray State. I ranked the Racers 22nd on my AP ballot this week, so there’s no sense in easing up on the accelerator now. Besides not having lost a game since Nov. 29, Murray State could very well enter an NCAA tournament game against a high-major school with the best player on the floor in 6’2” sophomore point guard Cameron Payne. That is usually not the case.

2. Valparaiso. The last team to beat Murray State. Bryce Drew’s Crusaders are in first place in the Horizon with an 11-2 record (24-4 overall). Their leading scorer is Alec Peters, a versatile 6’9” sophomore forward who could start for a lot of power conference teams.

The switch to look for tonight is MSU senior Travis Trice starting at shooting guard, with Bryn Forbes becoming the sixth man off the bench. Regardless of whether that happens, the bigger question in basketball is always who finishes the game, not who starts it. You know Trice, Branden Dawson, Denzel Valentine and a big are going to be on the floor for MSU in "winning time." Freshman Tum Tum Nairn replaced Bryn Forbes against Ohio State, Izzo giving up shooting but getting better defense and playmaking in return. When Forbes is hot on a particular night, he probably gets the nod there. But before Nairn emerged, he had that fifth spot by default. Now Izzo has more options.

"They tried to take me out the game a little bit, but it freed up other guys," Valentine said. "Trav had a big night, (Dawson) had a big night and Bryn (Forbes) had a lot of open shots. We got the win, that's all I'm happy about."

Forbes (seven points, 1 for 7 from three) had open looks all night, several of them on sharp Valentine passes that could have been assists. The Spartans (18-8, 9-4 Big Ten) are still waiting, though, for all three of its stars to have a big game in a big game.

* I have a few Tum Tum questions:
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2. With the recent success of Tum Tum starting and Trice coming off the bench, do you think this lineup will/should remain for rest of the season?
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I answered the second question above. I think this is going to be the lineup for the rest of the season, though I still think it's possible Trice replaces Bryn Forbes as the starting off guard. This is somewhat reminiscent of a decade ago when Drew Neitzel replaced Chris Hill as MSU's starting point guard midway through that season, a move that helped the Spartans improve and eventually make a Final Four run. Nairn and Trice also make up a tandem that is somewhat reminiscent of Travis Walton and Neitzel in 2006-07, when MSU needed Neitzel off the ball making shots. So … MSU's backcourt is all Drew Neitzel, at different stages.

Valparaiso has a glittering record (24-4, including 11-2 in the Horizon League) but has had some bad luck with injuries at the point guard spot this year, losing returning starter Lexus Williams to an ACL tear in September and then seeing the in-season starter Keith Carter go down in early January with a toe injury. Bryce Drew came up with a creative solution, going with 6-foot-8 senior E. Victor Nickerson at the point. Nickerson obviously has a big size advantage against most point guards defending him, and began using it increasingly more frequently to post up or drive on smaller guys as he got more comfortable in the role. One thing that helps is Valpo runs a lot of ball screen offense, so Nickerson wasn’t being expected to be a penetrator and distributor so much as someone to just get the team into its plays. Good news for the Crusaders is that Carter returned on Sunday in a win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee.