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Why PS4 Is Selling Faster Than Xbox One

Just before the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One launched back in November, I took a look at social media datato see how the two next-generation consoles were stacking up to one another. At the time, the PS4 was being talked about more and perceived to be the more powerful console, while the game lineup of the Xbox One was getting more positive sentiment (via SAP Social Media Analytics by NetBase). Now that the consoles have been on the market for two months, I wanted to see if a higher degree of PS4 chatter equates to higher sales. It appears that it does.

You Cannot Compare 2013 Sales Figures

Well you could, but you’d get the wrong picture. Why? Because PS4 was released a week earlier than Xbox One, and at the rate it’s been selling, that extra week gave Sony time to sell an additional half a million units. This means that in the time it took Microsoft to sell 3 million units, Sony probably sold in the neighborhood of 3.6 million units, not 4.2. Let’s look at the data.

Here are the self reported sales figures for each console (if I missed any, please let me know in the comments!).

Update 1/23 8:26PM EST: Microsoft just released Q2 earnings in which they disclose: “The company sold 7.4 million Xbox console units into the retail channel, including 3.9 million Xbox One consoles and 3.5 million Xbox 360 consoles.” (h/t commenter Joe C) Kyle Orland from Ars Technica explains:

It’s important to note that shipments to retailers aren’t the same as final sales to end consumers. Though those numbers usually track relatively closely (since retailers order new shipments to replenish stocks of systems they’ve actually sold), many of those 3.9 million shipments in 2013 might be sitting on retail shelves for a little while in 2014.

Here is the same data in a plot:

Looking at this graphing two things are pretty clear: PS4 is selling faster than the Xbox One, and Sony did not sell 4.2 million units in the time it took Microsoft to sell 3 million. With these data points in hand, we can approximate how many units were being sold a day, or rate of daily sales, after the first day of 1 million unit sales (since this will be an outlier of a day):

For each console, the daily sales rate remained pretty consistent between reported numbers, implying linear growth of cumulative units sold (although actual retail sales will look more erratic). On Dec. 10, we could have already predicted year end sales numbers fairly accurately, and although both had sold “about 2 million” in “about two weeks,” the details reveal that the PS4 was already selling quite a bit better at that point.

Using the estimated daily sales rate, Sony had probably sold around 3.6 million units in the time that Microsoft sold 3 million units. Put differently, Sony has sold 1.225 times as many PS4′s as Microsoft has sold Xbox One’s. Incidentally, the Xbox One is 1.25 times as expensive.

Advantage: Sony

At the moment it looks like the PS4 is in a better position. If their reported sales rate continues at the current pace, then they’ve already sold over 6 million units (to Microsoft’s estimated 4.4 million) and we could expect a press release announcing 6.3 million units sold (2.1, 4.2… 6.3?) next week.

This is really great news for Sony for two reasons: 1) neither console has yet launched in Japan, Sony’s home turf. Sony announcedit will launch the PS4 in Japan in February 2014. Microsoft hasn’t set a firm date beyond “2014″. If Sony gets a good head start in its backyard, I expect more good news for Sony.

The second reason Sony is in a good strategic position is because the future of consoles is not the games themselves, but all the other content and data that it will deliver. I may have bought my PS3 for games, but my wife uses it for Netflix and Amazon Video. Video games will remain an important part of the mix for sure. But recent NPD numbers suggesting Xbox One games have been selling better are only strategically important if they translate into more consoles sold. As we move into the future, both Sony and Microsoft want to own your TV screen, for games and everything else – and “everything else” is where the future big bucks await.

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“The second reason Sony is in a good strategic position is because the future of consoles is not the games themselves, but all the other content and data that it will deliver.”

This is an overstatement. People can access video streaming services from a number of devices (PC, television, smartphone, tablet). Thus there is no need to buy a console to access Netflix. These amenities are icing on the cake for someone who purchases a console for the games. Sony and Microsoft will continue selling consoles on the strength of their exclusives, but they make additional money by cutting deals with third-party streaming video services.

I think you’re probably right when you : “these amenities are icing on the cake for someone who purchases a console for the games.” However, there are many more non-gamers than there are gamers. These non-gamers will use also be using the console, but not for games, but many other things. So for them, those other things become not the icing but the cake itself, and I believe there’s a lot of money to be had there.

XB1 gamers are doomed if TV watchers are the majority. TV watchers won’t buy XB1 games, so the devs won’t target the console with AAA games because they won’t make any money.

The problem is rooted in the fact that the XB1 is a kinect controlled ‘multimedia console’ that also plays games, not a powerful ‘games console’ like PS4. That is the problem. It will end up just being a TV box for non gamers. Exactly how MS portrayed it at launch.

PS4 will be a very successful games machine and XB1 will be a very successful multimedia machine. The losers will be gamers on the multmedia machine.

Do you think the average mom and dad would even think to buy a gaming system to do everything else with it except play games? This isn’t like before where the Ps3 was the best blu ray player to watch movies on for the first few years of its existence. Technology is far superior to what we had a few years ago, so this all in one b.s. doesn’t hold up. People have tablets, phones, lap tops, smart tv’s, cable boxes, desktops, and bluray players. Very few people who are non gamers will look to buy a system for the icing on cake. This is why the Sony is outselling MS. They went for a powerful gaming system and MS went for all in one system. If it was true that this all in one thing was in such demand, Xbox one would be out selling PS4.

@shaun: no. But if you buy the PS4 for games and it’s in the house, any non-gamers in the house would surely use it for non-gaming purposes. You’re absolutely right, there’s a lot of other technology out there, but there is no dominant platform for the TV yet. This is the next big front for the internet, IMHO.

Completely looking at it in a immature and non business related way. Microsoft did what they wanted, they made a product that is more than just for “gamers”. Everyone talking about more powerful has no knowledge about how previous generations were. The PS3 and the 360 had by far more differences in power than the new consoles. Still the 360 had titles that won best graphics of year awards. It all depends on how well developers can work on each machine. No one can tell right now which console will be better. Most AAA exclusive games are just in development. The point is, both are doing sales records and that is the only thing both companies care about the most.

I like the idea that I can turn on my PS4 and access all the stores and apps that dont need a singular pass. If you want to use anything on Xbox you must subscribe to their service and for a lot of people to have to pay more to access free apps on other platforms just so MS can make money and you can unlock your system should be a dead giveaway right there. Using you same theory they are closer specs wise this time and PS4 is indeed cheaper and an amazing BluRay player ontop of it is really a no brainer and other than the game exclusive I dont see why anyone would buy MS stuff. Ms is the king of rip offs and non consumer friendly projects aka Kin, Danger Inc, Silverlight, Vista and many other poor overpriced products they release. Sony is more of a purebreed in the BluRay and gaming space and I find XBox to be gimmicky and over hyper and priced. Just like the CEO of EA said 2 years ago almost we have maxed out the XBox 360 and there is still plenty more we can do with the PS3. I like value, consumer friendly, inexpensive and then you add affordable on top of it and its a total WIN WIN!!

That’s very true, the PS4 did release a week early compared to the Xbox One, in the U.S. It was a week late to the party in Europe. So…This is again, another article that doesn’t mention the disparity in launches localized to different regions. That is total sales, yet they use U.S. launch figures as a be all end all basis. Jeez…Use knowledge next time. It is so annoying!

I can’t stand misinformation, which to me includes lack thereof and forming conclusions based on that lacking information. Oh…The PS4 had a head start, so those sales don’t really count. In that case, why don’t we just forget all the sales of the xbox 360 before the PS3 came out? Duh….That makes no sense. Of course the largest degree of sales will be during that first week, it had no competition, and the units were in stock. After that, it severely slowed down, cause it was harder to find available units. Dumb dumb dumb…

Or better yet, start your sales forecast after the PS4 launched in Europe too, on the 29th. Or even better, start it after the PS4 launches in Japan. Totally makes sense, right? Why would you dismiss sales from a date before the Xbox One launched.

As it is, the only reason we don’t have full blown numbers is because both are, mostly, selling out. It is hard to find a unit in stores for long. Not saying it is impossible, but it is difficult. My point being, this test is flawed based on the system they chose to use. You would have to wait until stock was selling while still having consoles on store shelves without having to wait for the next shipment. Then start your forecasts. As it is, you have to include total sales vs availability vs rate of sales vs competition (i.e. need a console, PS4 out of stock, got a Xbox One instead), it eliminates choice, because if one cannot find what they want, they get the alternative in some cases. Dumb dumb dumb…