Battle is on for London's drivers

Ken Livingstone signed away his political future today when he authorised the congestion charging scheme to go ahead. If it's a success, the odds are he will be swept back to office as mayor in 2004 for the second term he desires; if it fails, there's every chance he will be thrown out.

The scheme, which is due to start next February, will charge motorists £5 a day, Monday to Friday 7am to 6.30pm, in an area bounded by the "Inner Ring Road" - linking Euston Road, Pentonville Road, Tower Bridge, Elephant & Castle, Vauxhall Bridge Road, Park Lane and Marylebone Road.

How he fares will determine whether he becomes the hero who got London moving again and safeguarded the capital's economy, or the villain whose ill-judged plans brought chaos not just to the centre but to the suburbs too. If it works, he will be reelected-He will have an income stream of at least £130 million a year, the prospect of less congestion and a major achievement to parade before the voters when he goes to the polls.

Cheering him on will be those who have long hoped for tough action to tackle gridlock in the capital - such as the business and the environmental lobby, who are already hailing the first step.

The only complaint activists in the Green Party have is that the mayor should have been even tougher, with a £15-a-day charge on lorries rather than the flat rate of £5. Their leader, Darren Johnson, said: "The congestion charge has to be tough enough to work, otherwise it simply won't be worthwhile doing."

But such talk merely hardens the determination of the mayor's enemies. Boroughs such as Westminster, Wandsworth and Kensington and Chelsea plan to focus on whatever justification the mayor gives for his decision and his explanation about the way it was reached to use any opportunity to challenge the scheme in the courts.

Westminster wants to know why he is proceeding without subjecting his plans to a public inquiry. Wandsworth is pinning its hopes on the possibility that the Government may have reservations about the scheme. Stephen Byers, the Transport Secretary, has called for a public inquiry and last year John Spellar, the Transport Minister, said he can, and will, intervene if he believes the scheme will be harmful to transport and the economy in London.

Eddie Lister, the Wandsworth leader, says he should make good on the threat. "Everyone knows public transport isn't ready," he says. "If he doesn't stop Ken, Londoners will think they are being used as guinea pigs for nationwide congestion charging."

Kensington and Chelsea Deputy Leader Daniel Moylan agrees: "Londoners are being dumped on from a great height."

While he may ignore them, the mayor will proceed in the knowledge that there is also concern inside GLA headquarters at Romney House. The Liberal Democrats support the idea but remain concerned that conditions for it are not yet right. Transport spokeswoman Lynne Featherstone warned: "Ken Livingstone now has just 12 months to speed up bus journeys and get the other public transport improvements in place. If not, the transport network will struggle to cope when the scheme goes live."

Labour members also support road pricing but are wary of the version being presented to them by the mayor. They suggest he postpones his plans for two years to allow officers time for further work on the boundaries, exemptions for key workers, discounts for residents just outside the zone and the management of "rat-running" by drivers trying to escape the charge. Labour say these concerns could be addressed by further work and by the design of a scheme using more sophisticated technology.

His most implacable foes are the Tories, who already see evidence of betrayal. Angie Bray, the transport spokeswoman, said: "He said it was inconceivable that the charge would go ahead before the required improvements in public transport. They clearly have not taken place but he is going ahead anyway. It is typical of the Ken we have come to know."

Mr Livingstone dismisses these criticisms with his usual nonchalance, but he is fully aware that a failure to secure dramatic improvements on the buses, trains and Tubes prior to the bringing in of the charge make the scheme vulnerable to challenge. Drivers who abandon their cars would have no easy way to get to work. The overstretched transport network would be pushed over the edge.

He can point to an early success on the only mode of transport currently within his control, the buses. Passenger numbers are up six per cent to 1.4 billion a year, and night bus passengers are up 16 per cent to 17 million passenger trips a year. London Buses say they are planning enough extra services to carry those who transfer from their cars - that's more than 10,000 extra passengers in the peak hour into the charging zone. But most people will expect to travel by Tube and overground trains and he knows that both are underperforming.

London Underground statistics show that eight of the Tube's 12 lines are running fewer trains during morning and evening rush hours than in 1997-8. Worst are the Circle and Bakerloo lines, which between them carry more than 700,000 passengers a day.

If the Tube is bad, the overground trains are worse. Two months ago, the train companies were fined a record £136 million by the Rail Regulator for the misery they have caused commuters with late, cancelled and chronically overcrowded trains. South West Trains, which operates local and long-distance services into mainline Waterloo, was fined the most - nearly £16 million - largely because trains regularly failed to run on time.

The Mayor is the first to denounce the transport officials who fail to perform, but once the congestion charge is in operation a lot more of the travelling public's attention will be focused on him. He is entering a brave new world with just the stroke of a pen.