Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 12, 2014):

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bearon Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

It’s really hard to take people seriously when they bring up nonsense like this.

queeneeuq

@Ultima

Ha! You thinks so? The ratings of New Girl has been bleeding out but the Superbowl is likely to give it a kick.

Holly

@queeneeuq,

Following the Super bowl rarely, if ever, leads to a long-term boost. At best it lasts a couple of episodes.

Ultima

@queeneeuqHa! You thinks so? The ratings of New Girl has been bleeding out but the Superbowl is likely to give it a kick.

Nonsense. The only shows to get a bounce after the Super Bowl were shows that were already trending upwards (e.g. Friends, Grey’s Anatomy).

You can make the argument that the Super Bowl actually didn’t even help those shows, but rather that their popularity simply led to massive post-Super Bowl ratings.

Max Vrany

@queeneeuq, Look at Elementary last year. Its average before the Super Bowl and its average after the Super Bowl were basically identical. Even the episode on the Thursday immediately following the Super Bowl was on par with its fall episodes.

Ultima

Numbers to back up my point…

2007 Criminal Minds – prev airing 3.3, next airing 4.7

That was a huge bump, but the 4.7 was even with the fall finale and there had been six episodes that season to reach at least a 4.7 prior to the Super Bowl. The 3.3 was a result of airing head-to-head with American Idol during its highest rated week ever.

2008 House – prev airing 8.7, next airing 9.0

Insignificant gain, the show was well down from the 10.2-11.2 ratings it was pulling a year earlier.

2009 The Office – prev airing 4.6, next airing 4.3

Dropped.

2010 Undercover Boss – series premiere

Can’t make a before/after comparison.

2011 Glee – winter premiere, next airing 4.6

No bump, Glee had hit a 4.6 or higher rating eight times during the fall.

2012 The Voice – winter premiere, next airing 6.7

The Voice had a series high of 5.7 prior to the Super Bowl, arguably it did give it some extra exposure, but a 6.0+ premiere for The Voice without the Super Bowl would have been expected anyways.

2013 Elementary – prev airing 2.2, next airing 2.2

No bump.

TV Viewer

Elementary and Alias had good reasons for lousy Post Super Bowl ratings:

They both started after 11:00 PM Eastern Time Zone. That did not help them out when they aired after the Super Bowl, and it would not boost their ratings in their regular time slot.

A program which airs after 11:00 PM after the Super Bowl, Sunday night, when many people have to go to work the next day and a lot of students have to go to school, is just not going to get that many viewers to see it.

That will not help it in regular time slot the following week.

DenverDean

@Ultima – Elementary shouldn’t be on the list. Due to the fantatistic NO infrastucture, the blackout pushed Elementary out of prime time. That special episode only received a fraction of the planned exposure.

Ultima

@TV ViewerElementary and Alias had good reasons for lousy Post Super Bowl ratings

@DenverDeanElementary shouldn’t be on the list.

Let’s assume that shows can actually get a bump from the Super Bowl, then the shows that do get a bump are the rare exception rather than the norm.

You could just as easily say that the Super Bowl didn’t help (insert show here) in its regular timeslot the following week, because a post-Super Bowl airing doesn’t have any significant impact on a show’s regular airings.

Dan W

Super Fun Night didn’t win a Teen Choice Award, it won a People’s Choice Award for best new comedy. While I was surprised (I love the show but most people seem to hate it), I don’t think it will help renewal chances. I’m pretty sure The New Normal won that award last year and look how that turned out.

Completely agree that ABC should have never canceled Body of Proof or GCB. Both shows were fantastic and while they weren’t the highest rated, I feel like they were steady enough to use as a mid-season replacement once one or more new drama inevitably failed. ABC truly is the worst at renewing the right shows and scheduling.

Killer Women was another bomb shockingly. Along with OUATIW, Lucky 7, and Betrayal, this will obviously be canceled. I’m still surprised that Nashville is likely to be canceled on the Bubble Watch. They need to keep it I think. Revenge will more than likely end after season 4, OUAT’s ratings are falling, Scandal is going strong as is Grey’s. Even AoS isn’t doing that great and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continued to drop. Wonder if it will be worth renewing (how much does it cost?)…I think Nashville will definitely be renewed.

SJ

With so many failures, Suburgatory, Nashville and The Goldbergs might still have a chance.

Rebecca

I like SFN, didn’t know it won an award. I’m resigned to seeing it not get renewed (same for OUATiW), though. SFN’s number in the r/c index here is pretty good, so there is still a chance. I’d rather see The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife and The Neighbors return, though (or two of the three if possible). The rest of my ABC shows seems safe.

Dan S

The Goldbergs without a doubt can only benefit by ABC’s other shows failing. Count Mixology as DOA which by the title reminds me of the Tom Cruise film Cocktail.

Cory Stark

I think that January thru March are going to be like they were for NBC last season. Three of their top 4 dramas are on hiatus (Scandal, Grey’s Anatomy, and Once Upon a Time) as well as Dancing With the Stars. The Bachelor will do a solid job holding place on Monday, but Tuesday from 9:30 on is terrible, the Taste is down year to year and they don’t have anything original to air at 10.

Mark Drei

First fantasy schedule of the season. It assumes that Dancing With the Stars can be moved to Sunday, I understand there may be problems with that

Sunday:
Dancing with the Stars can counterprogram the cable dramas and football well

Americas Funniest Home Videos
Dancing with the Stars (2 Hours)
Castle

Monday:
Once pairs well enough with dancing and decently enough with Shield this could work

Dancing with the Stars (1 Hour)
Once Upon a Time
Shield

Tuesday:
Has to start all over again. I don’t think any schedule will work. They need to move Shark Tank to a week night though

Shark Tank
Suburgatory
New Comedy
New Drama

Wednesday:
Airing two new comedies in a single night will never work for ABC. Keep the Goldbergs with the Middle. Works well. And air a family, not hangout comedy after Modern Family. They shouldn’t launch a new show out of a new show, so I have Revenge ending its run where it began

The Middle
The Goldbergs
Modern Family
New family comedy
Revenge – Final Season

Thursday:
Grey’s is strong enough to uncurse the cursed timeslot. ABC should take advantage of Scandal while it has power to launch a new show.

Grey’s Anatomy
Scandal
New Drama

Friday:
Last Man Standing, Primetime, and 20/20 can all get low 1’s without Shark Tank

Last Man Standing
New Comedy
Primetime Specials
20/20

Matthew Chapman

This Paragraph was posted on TV Line regarding Revenge

Revenge has promoted Karine Vanasse to a series regular for Season 4, our sister site Deadline reports. Vanasse joined the ABC drama as French magazine editor Margaux at the start of the third season

Does this mean Revenge renewal announcement in the next few days?

Cyrax86

Yeah I would not be surprised about a renewal for Revenge at the TCA after that news.

SJ

@Matthew Chapman

I guess it’s possible for ABC to announce several renewals at the TCA panel in the next few days but the official decision will likely come in May. Signing existing regulars for future seasons doesn’t mean that the shows they’re on will automatically be renewed but promoting a recurring player to regular status is something else, and is definitely a good sign. As if there was ever any doubt…

CASTLE- Such a shame I never started with this.
TROPHY WIFE-I know I will love this. Will try and watch this soon.
MODERN FAMILY- used to watch this religiously. For some reason, I stopped.
SCANDAL-Everybody I know is begging me to catch up.
LMS-used to occasionally enjoy this. Too many new shows and had to let it go

ABC shows I have no interest in watching but am sometimes forced to watch at times because of family:

I think ABC will give a double, 2-season renewal to CASTLE to bring in a final tally of 8 seasons. Was supposed to happen last year but didn’t. Think it will happen this year, though. ABC knows it has a lot of life in it left, as it does. Continues to perform well every year, and very steady. But 8th season will probably be its last.

Revenge will be renewed for a full 4th season. Then a shortened, final 5th season next year.

Last Man Standing is another very steady Friday performer for ABC. Definitely will be renewed. Has great potential to do good in syndication.

Suburgatory will be renewed for another, shortened, spackle season of 13-15 episodes.