Whatever happened to “now is not the time”?

Opportunity knocks: the Scottish National Party are strong favourites to remain the controlling force in Scottish politics

April 19, 2017

If this election is going to be the Brexit election it is also going to be one that could decide the future of the British Union, reports Murray Ritchie from Scotland.

So Theresa May tells Nicola Sturgeon “now is not the time” for another Scottish independence referendum. The prime minister scolds the first minister of Scotland, reminding her that “politics is not a game”.

In her next breath Mrs May does a handbrake turn and says the time is right for a general election that will be all about Brexit in England and Wales and all about independence in Scotland.

Unsurprisingly many voters in Scotland seem to be not terribly impressed.

Yet, if this election is going to be the Brexit election it is also going to be one that could decide the future of the British Union. All general elections are like that in these turbulent times.

Theresa May has rather brazenly shown she is now the one playing political games.

For Holyrood’s ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) the poll on June 8 presents a challenge, but also an opportunity. A challenge, because with 56 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats there is only one way the party can go – and that is not up.

An opportunity, because the Nationalists are strong favourites to remain comfortably the controlling force in Scottish politics and leading the charge of the Holyrood majority for independence.

In what will necessarily be a hastily produced manifesto, they will promise another independence referendum – and Mrs May will probably repeat this is not the time for playing politics.

This time round, however, the prime minister’s protestations will not carry the same force. She has rather brazenly shown she is now the one playing political games.

Most observers in Scotland expect the SNP to keep most of their Westminster seats. Only a dramatic series of losses could dent the party’s pre-eminence. As of today the SNP enjoys a strong lead in the polls.

Of course the Unionist opposition parties will argue that any diminution of support for the SNP means a lessening public demand for indyref2. Ms Sturgeon will simply disagree and press on.

Regardless of the result in June, the SNP will still have their mandate from the 2015 general election for calling indyref2. The question now is how they will go about it in the face of opposition in Downing Street.

There was a time when Unionists argued that a SNP majority of MPs in Scotland – an assumed impossibility – was the obvious requirement for independence. That idea died when the majority happened.

Successive SNP leaders also used to claim a majority would justify a declaration of independence – so-called UD Aye – but that too faded. But suddenly there are fresh calls from the more eager nationalists in the blogosphere for its rebirth.

While the Scots government agitates for independence, there are renewed calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification.

While the more canny Ms Sturgeon goes about explaining how exactly she will tackle indyref2 she will come under renewed pressure to tell voters whether she wants an independent Scotland to remain in the European Union (as 62 per cent of Scots voters wished in last June’s referendum).

Since one-third of SNP voters favoured Brexit she has a need to bring them on board. She might park that problem and leave a decision on EU membership until after indyref2.

Although Ms Sturgeon personally favours Scotland joining (or rejoining) the EU, she is seemingly prepared to consider settling for single market membership only.

A decision on joining the EU or not cannot be put off for much longer. Clarity is required and the election has set Ms Sturgeon a deadline.

It is a strange and unintended consequence of Brexit that the UK is facing fresh and pressing problems in its constitutional composition.

While the Scots government agitates for independence, there are renewed calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification.

Northern Ireland voted Remain in the EU referendum leaving the Unionists to figure out how to keep a soft border with the Republic after Brexit. And England itself is deeply split on the EU.

Mrs May said she was calling the election because the country was coming together while Westminster was split. She is right about Westminster, but where she got the idea that Britain was healing itself after Brexit requires some elucidation. While England and Wales vote in June on Brexit, Scotland will be voting on independence.

In one respect, however, there is an undeniable logic in Mrs May’s politicking. She can take advantage of a currently inept Westminster opposition (she calculates) to gain a solid Conservative majority.

While that might help with the challenge of Brexit – and a hard Brexit at that – it could make matters worse in Scotland, Northern Ireland and even pro-Remain London.

If she worries about the break-up of Britain, which she is sworn to prevent, she might reflect on her own advice – and conclude that, indeed now is not the time for political games with weary voters.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15