Profile: A residential seat with a growing Asian population, the sizeable majority of the population here are non-white. High ethnic population in UK constituencies is normally associated with deprived inner city seats, but Brent North is most owner-occupied residential suburbs, a seat of upwardly mobile successful Asians.

Politics: Brent North was once a safe Conservative seat, represented by the eccentrically bewhiskered former schoolmaster Sir Rhodes Boyson. It has shifted radically towards Labour since those days, it had the biggest swing to Labour in the country in the 1997 landslide, and a further swing of almost 10 per cent to Labour at the following election in 2001 - presumably through the absence of the ideosyncratic Boyson and the growth in ethnic minority voters who, even when in an affluent seat like Brent North, are not inclined to vote Tory.

Current MP

BARRY GARDINER (Labour) Born 1957, Glasgow. Educated at Glasgow High School and St Andrews University. Former senior partner in shipping insurance and arbitration. Cambridge councillor 1988-1994. First elected as MP for Brent North in 1997. PPS to Beverley Hughes 2002-4. Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Northern Ireland office 2004-5, the DTI 2005-6, DEFRA 2006-2007. He was appointed Gordon Brown`s special representative on forestry in 2007, but stood down in 2008 after backing calls for a leadership challenge.

Past Results

2010

Con:

16486 (32%)

Lab:

24514 (47%)

LDem:

8879 (17%)

GRN:

725 (1%)

Oth:

1694 (3%)

MAJ:

8028 (15%)

2005*

Con:

11779 (33%)

Lab:

17420 (49%)

LDem:

5672 (16%)

Oth:

811 (2%)

MAJ:

5641 (16%)

2001

Con:

9944 (29%)

Lab:

20149 (59%)

LDem:

3846 (11%)

MAJ:

10205 (30%)

1997

Con:

15324 (40%)

Lab:

19343 (51%)

LDem:

3104 (8%)

Oth:

403 (1%)

MAJ:

4019 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics

2015 Candidates

LUKE PARKER (Conservative)

BARRY GARDINER (Labour) See above.

PAUL LORBER (Liberal Democrat)

ALAN CRAIG (UKIP) Educated at Newcastle University. Former businessman and warden in a young offender institution. Newham councillor 2002-2010 for the Christian Peoples Alliance. Contested London mayoralty 2008 for the CPA.

In Brent there was once one opposition conservative group. They didn’t get on so divorced, thus becoming two groups. The Brondesbury Park Conservatives and the Kenton Conservatives. Kenton Conservatives were declared the ‘official’ opposition and so on it went until the Kenton Councillor died. Upon the death of the Kenton Councillor, a member of Brondsbury Park Conservatives declared themselves the opposition as they had 3 members to the Kenton 2. Now, although Michael Maurice has been selected by Kenton Conservatives it has been reported that Brondesbury Park Conservatives are putting up a challenger.

How can two candidates from the same party stand for one seat in a by election. Does not make sense. Is it not against all political party rules that candidates don’t run against one another in elections.

I agree. For Labour to be significantly up even on 2014 is very worrying for the Tories, especially given that it is usually harder for them to get their vote out in local by-elections. That noise I can here is David Burrowes anxiously shifting about in his seat.

Well Barnaby the London wide polls (i.e. the swing) look about the same as the national polls for Labour indicating a swing of about 3-4 to Labour since 2010. This of course may be taken in context of the Tories doing rather poorly in London in 2010. There is little evidence that there will be a significantly different swing to Labour in London than the overall national swing.

A fairly positive result for Labour in Kenton but this is an area probably trending in their favour and that this by-election happened in the midst of major Tory party infighting.

As to how well seat wise Labour will do in London in May I think that:

So overall I am predicting for London 5 Labour gains from the Tories and 2 from the Lib Dems. Perhaps this will be relatively better than their performance nationwide in terms of proportion of target seats won but the swing in London doesn’t look to be anything particularly different to the country as a whole.

actually i agree with your conclusions. the last london poll, yesterday, did show a swing of 5% from the tories to labour, but as anthony says that does rather cancel out the recent predecessor poll that made it more like 3%.

The really secure parts of Enfield Southgate for the Conservatives are now the northerly suburbs like Cockfosters and Hadley Wood. The southern parts like Palmers Green are strongly Labour while Southgate itself was quite close between both parties in the 2014 locals so that seems to be where the main battleground for the seat lies.

the alarming thing for the Conservatives was labour winning a seat last year in winchmore hill, which used to be as safe as houses for the tories. labour would perhaps be a tad disappointed not to won outright in Southgate green ward, which had been very close in 2010, but overall the results were surely worrying for the Conservatives.

It is becoming more evident that Tory voters are moving out of London in droves making seats such as Enfield Southgate much more marginal.

Maybe this is due to high house prices in many suburbs, even the run down ones, the general down at heel feel of many of the suburbs especially those with high ethnic minority populations and the gentrification of Inner London which has attracted the younger city types.

Overall Tory prospects in London look grim for the foreseeable future.

I am sure the migration from the London suburbs to the ring of counties around London will make it even harder for Labour to get back in the seats they once held in Essex, Hertfordshire, Kent and the Thames Valley. I have said before here, the political map has the same look, a blue bit in the centre, a Labour ring and then a Conservative outer ring. The Labour ring used to stop at the old LCC boundary, now it is touching the GLC boundary. The Conservatives have no way back in a host of seats such as Hornsey and Wood Green, Croydon North, Mitcham and Morden, the Lewisham seats or Brent North. Labour however will be lucky to see gains in Watford, Thurrock and have outside chances in Crawley and Harlow. There is no chance of Dartford, Welwyn Hatfield and Braintree being Labour.

I don’t think this seat will realistically come back into play for the Conservatives any time soon but this result is further evidence that the Hindu vote is becoming better for them – perhaps even more so in a contest where the Labour candidate was a Muslim.

“This is very bad news for the Labour party in a few seats in the London area but I am not sure it’s a significant shift in many areas elsewhere and where it’ll make a difference.”

Leicester East is Labour’s safest seat in the West Midlands. It has pretty much the same proportion of Hindus as Brent North. So you’re right in that respect that it may not affect them outside London.

I think the Sikh vote seems to be holding up better for Labour though. There was a big swing to them in Southall at the GE, and Khan carried it quite significantly (if we go on non-postal votes) last week.

It may well be a factor specific to the middle class Hindu population that is particularly large in Harrow. Harrow West has always been a prosperous area which without the growth in the Asian population would probably have comfortably stayed Tory even in 1997 and 2001 (in fact, traditionally it was the more Tory of the two Harrow seats – as late as 1992 there was almost an 18,000 Tory majority). Brent North also has some prosperous areas but is not nearly as affluent as Harrow West. Leicester East is obviously very different to these London seats.

Yes I think it’s also a question of variations between Hindu communities who aren’t monolithic by any means. Middle class and/or affluent Hindus of the Gujarati community are probably more inclined to vote Conservative. Compare that to the more working class Hindu population of Mitcham, predominantly Sri Lankan Tamil (growing very quickly in that part of London) who are more favourable to Labour.

Barry Gardiner MP says this about his constituency,
“My constituency of Brent North is the 1st in the country that had more people at the last election voting who were born outside of the UK than born in it … much of that has been through Eastern European migration that came on top of East African migration… as a result we have one of the most vibrant economies in NW London.” (BBC2 Daily Politics 4/7/16)

Much a do about nothing – just another example of the Murdoch press using anything as an excuse to go all out for one of Corbyn’s allies

Whatever your political leanings – and I have no desire for Corbyn or any of his shadow cabinet to govern the UK – when you consider that some MPs get paid to represent the interests of drug dealers, tyrants and warlords, doing so for the interests of a Chinese law firm seems like small beer in the extreme

Historically Brent North was not only the most ethically diverse Conservative constituency but also a safe Conservative seat.

It was 42% Asian around the early 90s census. Brent North in the early 1990s was like Harrow East today while Brent North today is more like Brent South was in the early 90s.

The White population has declined here but I also think their may have been East African Asians and Hindus who may have be pro Tory and have moved out to Harrow or Herts being replaced by other Asian communities who more strongly favoured Labour.

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)