From now, until Selection Sunday, Sporting News will analyze the outcomes of key games involving bubble teams for the 2013 NCAA Tournament and look at how the results affect the team's tournament chances.

At this time of the season, every game carries a life-or-death feel for teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. They rarely are quite that important—remember, the phrase “body of work” is key—but the tournament selection committee is watching intently.

Here’s what they saw on Wednesday.

GOOD NIGHT: Creighton

Outcome: Won at Bradley. This was a game Creighton was supposed to win, but everything on the road has been an adventure lately for the Bluejays, who are just 2-5 in their past seven games away from Omaha. Doug McDermott scored 32 points as Creighton pulled away in the second half, which is pretty much what the blueprint says.

BAD NIGHT: Maryland

Outcome: Lost at Georgia Tech. The home win against Duke a few weeks ago breathed life into Maryland’s at-large hopes, but this might finally be the loss that crushes those dreams. Since that win against the Blue Devils, the Terps have now lost at Boston College and at Georgia Tech, a pair of teams with RPIs in the 130 range. Add those losses to an anemic non-conference strength of schedule (RPI 300), and it’s hard to imagine Maryland dancing in March.

Prognosis: On life support, at best.

GOOD NIGHT: Kentucky

Outcome: Won at home vs. Mississippi State. Another hold-serve game. Losing to the Bulldogs would have been brutal, but this game was never in doubt. The Wildcats led by 23 at halftime and wound up winning by 30.

Prognosis: Same as yesterday.

BAD NIGHT: Charlotte

Outcome: Lost at home to Dayton. The 49ers are probably a year ahead of schedule when it comes to competing for an NCAA Tournament berth, and they looked like it Wednesday night against a Dayton team that was 0-7 on the road in conference play heading into this game. Charlotte just finished a brutal stretch of six games against potential at-large teams with a 2-4 record; losing this one to the Flyers is more than the 49ers’ resume can take at this point of the season.

Prognosis: They’ve now lost seven of their past 10 games. That’s all for Charlotte.

GOOD NIGHT: N.C. State

Outcome: Won at home vs. Boston College. This was an encouraging night for Rodney Purvis, the freshman who recently lost his spot in the starting lineup. He had 21 points off the bench as the Wolfpack rolled to an 18-point home victory.

Prognosis: The Wolfpack is pretty secure, but not a lock yet. And anytime this enigmatic team avoids an upset scare, it’s a good night.

BAD NIGHT: Wichita State

Outcome: Lost at home to Evansville. This might be the worst loss of Wednesday—it’s at least in contention with Indiana State and Maryland—considering the Shockers were playing at home against a team that had lost six consecutive road games in Missouri Valley action. Now, the Shockers have been swept by Evansville on the season.

Prognosis: A bid that felt rock-solid in the middle of January is on shaky ground.

GOOD NIGHT: Akron

Outcome: Won at Ohio in overtime. The Zips haven’t lost since December 15, which includes a pristine 13-0 record in MAC play. They’re absolutely good enough to win a couple games in the NCAA Tournament, and should they lose in the conference tournament, an at-large bid isn’t likely, but it is possible. They have decent computer numbers (RPI 47, Pomeroy 49), but their best win, against Middle Tennessee, isn’t great.

Prognosis: To keep hope alive, the Zips needed to sweep a very good Ohio team. That happened Wednesday.

BAD NIGHT: Ohio

Outcome: Lost at home to Akron in overtime. This was a thrilling game between two rivals who are clearly the cream of the MAC crop. To have any chance of an at-large bid, the Bobcats needed to at least salvage a season split with Akron. That didn’t happen.

GOOD NIGHT: Boise State

Outcome: Won at home vs. Nevada. The Broncos held serve today, nothing more. At this point of the season, though, everything counts.

Prognosis: Same as it was yesterday.

BAD NIGHT: Indiana State

Outcome: Lost at home to Drake. In the simplest of terms, teams that get swept by the Drakes of the world—teams that are under .500 in a mid-major conference—don’t get at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores have what must be a wildly frustrating resume to their fans, with wins against Miami, Ole Miss, Creighton and Wichita State surrounded by losses to Drake (two of ’em), Missouri State, Morehead State, Bradley and Southern Illinois.

Prognosis: The lights have been turned out.

GOOD NIGHT: Baylor

Outcome: Won at West Virginia. This absolutely was a can’t-lose basketball game for a very talented Baylor squad. The Bears still haven’t beaten an NCAA Tournament-quality squad since January 21—despite six opportunities—but at least this wasn’t a loss.

Prognosis: Hanging around the slim-to-none stage, but still alive.

BAD NIGHT: Arkansas

Outcome: Lost at LSU. Coach Mike Anderson’s team is 1-9 away from Fayetteville, with the lone win at Auburn. Forget about an at-large berth with that track record on the road.

Prognosis: This ends the fading hope.

GOOD NIGHT: Iowa

Outcome: Won at home vs. Purdue. The Hawkeyes held onto that glimmer of hope with a gotta-have win against the Boilermakers.

Prognosis: Nothing changed Wednesday, which is a good thing for Iowa.

BAD NIGHT: Saint Joseph’s

Outcome: Lost at Saint Louis. The Hawks were only barely on the outer fringes of the bubble conversation (wins against Notre Dame and Temple) heading into Wednesday night, and they needed to beat a red-hot Saint Louis team on the road to have any chance at all. They didn’t.

Prognosis: Zero chance of an at-large bid.

GOOD NIGHT: Mississippi

Outcome: Won at home vs. Texas A&M. Four players had at least a dozen points for the Rebels, who recorded back-to-back wins for the first time since late January. After losing that game at South Carolina, finishing the rest of the regular season undefeated became very important; it’s two down, three left.

Prognosis: No big news is good news for the Rebels.

BAD NIGHT: Oklahoma

Outcome: Lost at Texas in overtime. The Sooners held a 22-point lead in the second half, but couldn’t stop Longhorns guard Myck Kabongo down the stretch. Kabongo scored 28 of his 31 points after halftime to help his team hand Oklahoma a stunning loss. This was by far OU’s worst RPI defeat of the season (Texas was 140 heading into this game).

Prognosis: The Sooners are still OK at the moment, but losing games like this means they’ll likely wind up with a double-digit seed.