Marine Weather and TidesWhite Pine, MI

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AM

Sunset 8:49PM

Saturday May 25, 2019 8:48 AM CDT (13:48 UTC)

Moonrise 12:37AM

Moonset 10:19AM

Illumination 60%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 412 am edt Sat may 25 2019
showers and thunderstorms developed across south central upper
michigan this morning, along the leading edge of 925 to 850mb
moisture transport and the axis of 400-800 j kg mucape. Elsewhere,
cloud cover remained in place, with drizzle light rain yet again
impacted north central upper michigan. Across areas where wind were
fairly light, the winds worked in concert with continued moisture
advection northward to allow for stratus build down and the
development of fog. Off to our west, low pressure continued to lift
northeast over the minnesota canada border, with the occluded front
showing up nicely on radar moving northeast across the arrowhead of
minnesota.

As the main surface low continues to slowly lift northeast into
canada, the trailing cold front will push west to east across the
upper peninsula today. The front is expect to move across western
upper michigan late morning early afternoon, focusing the better
moisture and lift across eastern parts of upper michigan. With
freezing levels below 10kft, 50-60 knots of bulk shear to work with
and steepening mid-level lapse rates aloft, it is not out of the
question that if enough convergence and lift can support convection
out east this afternoon, a few storms could be on the stronger side.

Low-level are expected to be stable, especially over areas downwind
of lake michigan, so the primary threat would be small hail with any
stronger storms. Across the west, behind the front it is possible
that we could see a few diurnal rain showers develop as colder air
aloft and steeper lapse rates develop.

Tricky temperature forecast today as the front will push into
western upper michigan through the morning early afternoon hours, so
temperatures will be a bit cooler (upper 60s to mid 70s) behind the
front. Ahead of the front, temperatures are expected to soar into
the mid upper 70s, with a few locations possible hitting the 80
degree mark. While cloud cover will be a concern early on, ahead of
the front moving through compressional warming and downsloping near
the lake superior shoreline should aid in additional warming. It
certainly helps that we're starting off the day with temperatures
already in the 50s. Today will also be windy, ahead of and
especially behind the front. The aforementioned cold air advection
and steepening of the low-level lapse rates behind the cold front
will allow for sufficient mixing down of higher momentum. Wind gusts
are expected to approach 25 to 35 mph at times, perhaps locally
stronger over the keweenaw peninsula. While rhs are only expected to
fall into the 30 to 45% range today, the combination of above normal
temperatures and very gusty winds will cause concerns for borderline
elevated fire weather conditions today across the west and central.

If the environment were a bit drier today, the elevated conditions
would be more of a slam-dunk. Tonight, high pressure starts to build
into the region and any lingering showers out east will dissipate.

Winds will relax and much drier air will work into the region.

Long term (Sunday through Friday)
issued at 451 am edt Sat may 25 2019
relatively weak surface high pressure will build into the region
through Sunday and persist into Sunday night with dry conditions. A
western CONUS mid upper-level low will gradually translate eastward
early next week, with a shortwave and associated weak sfc low
expected to cross the upper great lakes Monday afternoon into mon
night. For now, it still appears that much of the memorial day

holiday will be dry, but then rain begins to move in by mid to late
afternoon from the west and south. Models differ on when pcpn with
this initial wave will exit the area. The GFS and canadian models
suggest showers could hang around into Tue while the ECMWF shows
drier conditions Tue into Tue evening. Expect near normal temps from
Sunday through Tuesday with highs generally in the 60s and lows in
the 40s.

As upper level ridging builds more strongly into the pacific NW and
western canada by mid week, the closed low over the SW CONUS will
eject northeastward through the plains as an open wave and increase
in speed. Models still show plenty of differences in the placement
and timing of the shortwave and associated weak sfc low as it
crosses the region Wednesday into Wednesday night although the
operational 00z GFS has trended weaker with system per the ecmwf
solution. Model consensus pops based on expected track of the
shortwave would indicate increasing chcs for scattered showers late
tue night into Wed over mainly central and eastern portions of the
cwa.

Surface pressure is expected to build back into the area behind
Wednesday's shortwave and should yield drier conditions later wed
night into Friday with some seasonally cool air expected to filter
in.

Models then show a NW flow shortwave and associated cold front
moving through later Fri into Sat which will likely bring another
round of showers across the area and a reinforcing shot of cooler
air.

Stratus has gradually built down resulting in fog at ksaw. With kcmx
on the end of the clear skies just to the west, those ceilings
should scatter out shortly. Ksaw on the other hand, confidence is
not high in the timing of ceilings to scatter out. Winds will
increase throughout the mid-morning and afternoon hours from the
southwest and eventually west as a cold front pushes through.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 412 am edt Sat may 25 2019
breeze winds 15 to 25 knots at time are expected over the lake today
as a cold front pushes west to east across the upper great lakes.

Winds will then remain light, generally less then 20 knots through
the rest of the weekend through early middle parts of next week. A
storm system progged to track across the great lakes mid late next
week may return chances for stronger winds.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (9,2,3,4)

Disclaimer:The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.