Housing Market: Bubble Trouble?

Here we go again. As prices rise, so do concerns. Here’s why:

Historically, stable market prices generally rise three to four percent every year. In 2002, prices were rising around 7 percent, which grew to 8 percent in 2004, then exploded to 12 percent in 2005. As we all know, by 2007, prices fell throughout the nation. This was the first time in our history that this happened.

According to a report by CoreLogic, prices are now skyrocketing back up, with home prices growing around 8 percent since this past December.

Florida has a lot of activity in its distressed home market. Investors can’t seem to buy them fast enough, and their increasing demand is hiking up the prices. Most have a lot of liquidity and are eager to take advantage of increased demand for rental properties. As the market recovers, it relies heavily on metropolitan areas in Florida as they have led recovery in the past (2011), but we’re not seeing exponential spikes in home prices, though they definitely are increasing.

Our state’s market is experiencing a slow, steady increase in prices and it is expected to have more homes in the inventory as foreclosures open up again. Foreclosures were at a bit of standstill due to the “robo-signing” committed by banks, but are now being cleared and pushing through. The more homes available, the more even the supply-demand and gradual increase of home prices.

But is Florida’s housing market showing risks of a bubble?

Florida’s housing market is currently occupied by:

Confident consumers that have regained financial stability because of bettering employment rates

Investors who are likely to prefer to profit now than wait for the market to stabilize and rent the properties they’ve acquired (flip). What’s more, these investors are yet again leading the sales.

Potential buyers who are eager to move, and therefore, list their homes

The market can go either way from here. Prices impact sales, which lately aren’t strong. Most experts are predicting prices will increase this year, but prices can either go up where the market or down where the market is struggling if sales do not increase.

How We Compare to Other Markets:

States that have prices in double digits because of investor demand and drying up inventories include Arizona, Nevada and California.

Phoenix home prices are up 26%, and “REO Saturation” (the share of sales that is Real Estate Owned, or foreclosed) is at 17 percent. During the crash, it was around 50.

In Las Vegas, REO Saturation is at 38% and prices are up 15% annually. With the supply drying up, the bidding is getting higher, leaving owner-occupants and first-time home buyers out of luck and options.