Analysis: Texans' playoff picture brighter

Updated 10:22 pm, Tuesday, October 30, 2012

HOUSTON — Barring catastrophic injuries or stunning collapses, the AFC is shaping up quite nicely for those of us who like to look ahead and make predictions.

Before the season, I predicted the Texans would finish 11-5 and lose at New England in the AFC Championship Game. Now, I think the Texans will finish 12-4, possibly even 13-3. If they are fortunate enough to earn home-field advantage, I can see them reaching the Super Bowl.

Coaches and players say they don't consider the big picture and look ahead, which we know isn't true, but they don't make predictions.

First, if the Texans are going to lose, they should do it to NFC teams. They got smashed by Green Bay. They still have to play at Chicago and Detroit and host Minnesota in the last home game.

It's imperative the Texans win their AFC games because of head-to-head, conference and division tiebreakers.

It says here the Texans, New England, Denver and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore will win the four AFC divisions. The team that doesn't win the AFC North will get a wild-card berth.

The way it stands now, Miami and Indianapolis — the only other AFC teams with winning records — would compete for the other wild-card berth.

So far, the Texans own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, Ravens and Dolphins. Of the teams I think will figure in the playoff picture, the Texans visit New England in December and play the Colts twice in the last three games.

At this point, I think Denver and New England will compete with the Texans for home-field advantage. Don't you know the Texans are glad they got the Broncos out of the way early?