WCOOP Omnibus Post

Sorry for the lack of posts on here. It’s just that I’ve been playing so much poker that when I’m finished I don’t feel like spending another half-hour at the computer putting together a blog post.

Also I haven’t done anything of great interest in any of the recent WCOOPs. In fact, this is going to be a bit of a whine post. I’ve lost a lot of big pots with set under set and similar “cooler” situations. In most cases, though, I think there’s at least a case to be made that I could have played the hand differently and lost less, so hopefully it will be a little interesting to look at these. I’m actually less likely to make hero folds when I know I’ve been getting coolered a lot recently, because I start to trust my judgment less. I question whether I’m really beat or just seeing monsters under the bed.

I think the river is very foldable. Yeah, a lot of draws missed, but I have blockers to some of them, plus it’s only the best players who can take a draw and play it exactly like it’s a set, including shoving the river. Less good players, which this guy seemed to be, are more likely to bet bigger on the flop and/or turn with their big draws and smaller on the river. Plus there’s the whole survival/tournament life thing where I ought to fold if I think it’s close. What led me to call was the fact that I think this is literally the very top of my range for playing this way. Sets I probably raise on the flop or turn. I guess I could have AA/KK as well, but I don’t think there’s much difference between those and this hand. Villain is repping a very narrow value range, but I think his bluffing range is also very narrow and maybe even non-existent.

Results:
Hero had 6♠, 6♦ (three of a kind, sixes).
MP2 had 9♣, 9♥ (three of a kind, nines).
MP3 had 5♣, 2♣ (straight, six high).
Outcome: MP3 won t13693

Ignore the header here- I had to mess with it to make the converter work. This is from the $300 PL Mix event. I think it’s awfully close at several points. Even betting the flop is questionable, but both of these players were on the loose side, so I think there’s a good chance I win it on the flop or get called by worse.

The turn is trickier. I would fold a set of 4’s, and if I were in MP2’s shoes, I think I could even fold a set of 6’s. I feel like the possibility of lower sets and mayyyyybe even two-pair in their ranges makes it tough to fold 66, but I don’t know. I had a bad feeling about it.

This one might look weird, but I actually think it’s played the best of any of these. Betting the flop here would just look absurdly strong and probably get me at best one street of value from AJ. I expected to win a big pot regardless if anyone had AQ/QQ (barring this river of course), so it was really a matter of how best to extract from lesser hands. If the flop checks through, there’s a lot of value to be had bombing the turn and river, so that’s what I was hoping to do.

I often forget that it’s harder to get thin value in tournaments than in cash games. In this and the next few hands, that’s arguably my mistake. Here, Villain was a good 2+2 poster who I knew had some hand-reading skill. I had him on a pocket pair, and I thought the board rolled off in a way that he’d expect me to triple barrel. I’m not sure what to do differently, but I don’t love this line.

Given Villain’s likely UTG limp-calling range, I think it’s tough for him to have a second best hand that can pay off three streets. With the most likely draw getting there on the turn, I elected to check and bet or call river. His bet was so small that I thought he couldn’t have a straight (though looking at it now 65 would make some sense), so I went for value expecting him to have two-pair or a worse set. I don’t know whether this was optimistic or just unlucky.

Results:
Hero had 8♠, 8♥ (three of a kind, eights).
MP3 had Q♠, Q♥ (three of a kind, Queens).
Outcome: MP3 won t27918

This is a very similar spot where the underbet + turn check tricked me into thinking I must be good. I think the biggest mistake might be flop. I told myself he could have a smaller pocket pair, but really his pre-flop call already set off a bit of an alarm for me, and I think check-calling, bet-folding, or even check-folding might all be better than bet-calling.

As I write his, I’m off to a nice start in the $500 1 rebuy, 1 add-on, which is the event in which I took 3rd last year. And in fact the biggest pot I’ve won was from a thin value shove on the river, though in this case I was dealing with a tilty and not very good Villain with whom I had a bit of history:

6 thoughts on “WCOOP Omnibus Post”

At the risk of sounding beginner-ish, could you possibly walk through one of these hands and explain value range and bluff range? is it just based on his action, what could he have to value and bluff? if so, how do you filter out all the different kinds of hands he could have?

also, for that first hand with the tpnd, are you flatting on the flop because of large stack sizes? how small or big must your stack be to raise and get it without remorse? thanks!

Hi, Hans. I don’t have time to run through one of those hands right now, but I’ve written on the subject before. I think you’ll find this article helpful. Clicking on the “Articles” tab will show you quite a few other strategy articles where I discuss concepts like the ones you’re asking about. Hope that helps!

I’ve run my mouth on Twitter a bit, but right now I don’t feel like I have anythng postworthy to say. If there’s a specific question you have for me or something you’d like me to address, you’re welcome to suggest it. I don’t think we need the Poker Ethicist to convince anyone that paying their Board with players’ money is unethical.

You’d be surprised, though, I think – even on 2+2, even now, there are people going “well.. I don’t think they really meant any harm… it was just a mistake.”

But more than that, I guess I’m curious as to your take on whether the continued revelations of cheating and morally questionable activity (from UB/AP to the multi-accounters to datamining/sharing to Girah to the sheer enormity of Fulltilt) is a reflection of something intrinsic to poker, or simply the natural product of human failings and a lack of regulation. In particular, and this is obviously my own bias, I wonder whether you think poker can ever evolve beyond the shady nether-realm it now occupies. Would it be possible to do so by bringing in outside sponsorship to fill prize pools, and having nominal buy-ins (like most other sports/games)? I see a lot of people immediately shoot down this idea, saying that “poker is all about the money” and “haha how stupid it would be to have freeroll tourneys that’s not poker” and similar. But if it’s a game of skill, why should the buy-in matter? Is the fear of losing money an integral part of poker?

More than a little curious too about whether you have any twinges of doubt that shady activity is going on behind the scenes at PokerStars, too. People say no, and point to the fact that they were able to cash out players etc. after black friday as proof, and I do agree it’s commendable that they were able to do so. Still, though, people were just as sure about FullTilt being secure, and at the end of the day, PokerStars is unregulated just like FullTilt was.