2013-11-07 15:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Good day2013-11-07 15:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?2013-11-07 16:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any questions or comments before we get started??2013-11-07 16:01:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thx2013-11-07 16:01:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ouch2013-11-07 16:01:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just saw the close2013-11-07 16:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4:1 negative breadth as well2013-11-07 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good thing2013-11-07 16:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get started since today is also a shortened session2013-11-07 16:02:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Naz got touched up2013-11-07 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after attempting to rally on the ECB news2013-11-07 16:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market thought better of it2013-11-07 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it might be we have some technical breakdowns now2013-11-07 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's take a look2013-11-07 16:03:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly higher yesterday2013-11-07 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply lower today2013-11-07 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and resting on its intermediate term rising bottoms line going back to the August period2013-11-07 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've been discussing for a week now2013-11-07 16:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be highly important for the bulls to hold this line of support2013-11-07 16:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we will start to get new downside price objectives generated2013-11-07 16:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO components2013-11-07 16:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend moved below zero today2013-11-07 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 5% Trend rests on its zero line2013-11-07 16:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the technical expectation from here would be for a bounce off the zero line for the 5% while the 10% snaps back to the just violated demarcation point between buyers and sellers2013-11-07 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO2013-11-07 16:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved sharply lower today2013-11-07 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and putting ruler to monitor2013-11-07 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also broke below the rising bottoms line just mentioned in the commons2013-11-07 16:07:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that with this break of trendline support2013-11-07 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it was enough for the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM to gap sharply lower today2013-11-07 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and settled just below the important +500 level2013-11-07 16:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price action itself on the NYA2013-11-07 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's sharply lower price bar has now provided a simple snapback to what were the previous highs in the 1 year pattern2013-11-07 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls are going to make a stand, this would be time to do so 2013-11-07 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we can "allow" a bit more downside play in the MCO 2013-11-07 16:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we move below the early October lows2013-11-07 16:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're going to be stuck in a larger consolidation pattern for the next couple of weeks2013-11-07 16:10:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: likely into the beginning of December2013-11-07 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...2013-11-07 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough energy came in today to where prices could move to the 9750 level without too much of a problem2013-11-07 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO2013-11-07 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we settled right at the same rising bottoms line we were referring to in the NYSE data2013-11-07 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settling with a -47 reading2013-11-07 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about before2013-11-07 16:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break of the recent lows in the NASDAQ now allows the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to challenge its zero line again2013-11-07 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it2013-11-07 16:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will include a break below mid October lows2013-11-07 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we also touched upon earlier this week2013-11-07 16:14:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with respect to the rising MCSUM structure of having a high above a high without an extension in the postings, doesn't always bode well for the market itself2013-11-07 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today could had been that trigger where the market has again become vulnerable2013-11-07 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth components2013-11-07 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and both are now below their zero line2013-11-07 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have a confirmed sell signal on a short term trending basis here2013-11-07 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MCSUM still above its zero line2013-11-07 16:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not working with a change in trend at this time2013-11-07 16:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it could turn out to be one later on this month2013-11-07 16:16:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note2013-11-07 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that November OPEX is due a week from tomorrow2013-11-07 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today might have something to do with that as well2013-11-07 16:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't personally think so2013-11-07 16:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll throw it out there for digestion2013-11-07 16:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to finish up with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM2013-11-07 16:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's downside thrust in the MCO did break the rising bottoms line early September lows2013-11-07 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so with the usual excitement as far as prices are concerned2013-11-07 16:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ Composite down nearly 2%2013-11-07 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ohhh...those small point changes in the MCO2013-11-07 16:20:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: will the 250 breaking tomorrow be felt too?2013-11-07 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can strategtize on the odds of which way we'll likely go2013-11-07 16:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's one of those things that can go either way as tension on the tape is released2013-11-07 16:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +250 level is not as "dynamic" as a trendline or horizontal break2013-11-07 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as more and more sellers begin to off set the buyers2013-11-07 16:22:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then be able to work with more than one or two down days in a row the closer we get to zero overall2013-11-07 16:22:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thx2013-11-07 16:22:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure2013-11-07 16:22:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cut in interest rates overseas was not appreciated by the growth buyers2013-11-07 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at one point2013-11-07 16:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw the DAX was up over 100 points on the news2013-11-07 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how it closed2013-11-07 16:23:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 402013-11-07 16:24:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost a key reversal there2013-11-07 16:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might have one on the Dow2013-11-07 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will need to check the open interest 2013-11-07 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: outside range day on the March futures2013-11-07 16:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a key reversal today folks2013-11-07 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very rare2013-11-07 16:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment2013-11-07 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: open interest is stable2013-11-07 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh so close2013-11-07 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy2013-11-07 16:28:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go on and review this idea next week2013-11-07 16:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's sharp move lower in the NDX breadth MCO was able to break the rising bottoms line as well in the NDX breadth MCSUM2013-11-07 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's reading of -66 is "oversold" enough to where we'll likely see a bounce near term2013-11-07 16:29:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technical breakdown as well in the SPX breadth MCO2013-11-07 16:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was evidently too much of a challenge to overcome on the SPX breadth MCSUM2013-11-07 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it couldn't negotiate above the +750 level2013-11-07 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the OEX data2013-11-07 16:31:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in both cases2013-11-07 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% component Trend in both settled at their zero lines today2013-11-07 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the expectation here is for a near term bounce2013-11-07 16:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as soon as tomorrow2013-11-07 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't hold here2013-11-07 16:32:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can pretty much throw in the bullish towel for a month or two2013-11-07 16:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what does the market want tomorrow?2013-11-07 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more jobs created?2013-11-07 16:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or less?2013-11-07 16:32:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dunno2013-11-07 16:33:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that since the market has transitioned to that of a earnings based marketplace2013-11-07 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they would want to see economic expansion2013-11-07 16:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which 2013-11-07 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did the 10 year do today?2013-11-07 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check2013-11-07 16:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: held up2013-11-07 16:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: settled at 2.612013-11-07 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...not a lot of panic buying by the bond pits today2013-11-07 16:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting kind of tricky here2013-11-07 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bearish daily price bar on gold though2013-11-07 16:35:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts2013-11-07 16:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a clean outside range day on the Dow2013-11-07 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would indicate a down close on Friday2013-11-07 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the Dow breadth MCO2013-11-07 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it remains above its zero line2013-11-07 16:37:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a take out of the 15,500 level would pretty much put a cap on the current price pattern sequence 2013-11-07 16:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would come, of course, of a break of the Dow breadth MCO zero line2013-11-07 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also dumped lower today2013-11-07 16:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the short term pattern of tops beneath tops continues to control the pattern2013-11-07 16:38:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it looks line the 1250 level will be our first target there 2013-11-07 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the MID breadth MCO breaking its rising bottoms line today2013-11-07 16:39:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 7502013-11-07 16:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may not see this area provide the stabilization that the bulls would be looking for2013-11-07 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...and the +750 level will probably be violated here given the downside momentum thrust we had today2013-11-07 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO, however, did settle on its rising bottoms line2013-11-07 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but today's thrust was able to push the SML breadth MCSUM below the +750 level2013-11-07 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it settled right at the rising bottoms line there2013-11-07 16:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have basically the same situation with the TM breadth MCO and MCSUM as both are now challenging their respected rising bottoms lines2013-11-07 16:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-11-07 16:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bear ambush was a successful one2013-11-07 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now the bulls need to really step up, here and now, or they'll likely be scurrying for cover2013-11-07 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a quick look at the volume McClellan's2013-11-07 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see what the bulls were hoping wouldn't happen 2013-11-07 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that was a break of the longer term horizontal range on the NASDAQ volume MCSUM took place today2013-11-07 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and minus any obligatory snapbacks we might see over the next week or so2013-11-07 16:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is a bearish omen2013-11-07 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if the bulls are going to sort this out they will need to do so not only quickly2013-11-07 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with emphasis behind their conviction2013-11-07 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind 2013-11-07 16:47:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the upside price target that was given over 6 months ago on the NASDAQ Composite of 4000 was missed by only 33 points on an intraday basis2013-11-07 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is less than 1%2013-11-07 16:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no other targets were ever given2013-11-07 16:48:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be reasonable to think that with this target pretty much met we might need some time to digest the gains seen in this run up2013-11-07 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just throwing it out there 2013-11-07 16:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see we got lower lows in the NDX volume MCO2013-11-07 16:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're getting to the point where we've seen "oversold" bottoms in the past2013-11-07 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see a fill of the price gap that was created last month near term2013-11-07 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the volume MCSUM's in the SPX, OEX and MID in relation to their +500 level2013-11-07 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it becomes clear on why this level was needed to be broken in order for prices to keep the current uptrend intact2013-11-07 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now?2013-11-07 16:52:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of that happening have diminished2013-11-07 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...2013-11-07 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although volume side of things remains constructive2013-11-07 16:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall tone today between volume and breadth was decidedly negative2013-11-07 16:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like the bears have now "intercepted the ball" on a short term trending basis2013-11-07 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some good news here for the buyers2013-11-07 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we are climactic on the CVI 2013-11-07 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should see a price low in the next two trading sessions2013-11-07 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: aside of that...not too many changes since Tuesday2013-11-07 16:54:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that will change tomorrow2013-11-07 16:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the STVO plays catch up to today's CVI2013-11-07 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.692013-11-07 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now at .992013-11-07 16:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no longer neutral2013-11-07 16:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.362013-11-07 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.002013-11-07 16:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.492013-11-07 16:56:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.012013-11-07 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is balanced here2013-11-07 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and minimally "oversold"2013-11-07 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't mean we won't have any follow through to today's shake out2013-11-07 16:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it should keep things from falling apart near term2013-11-07 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?2013-11-07 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the BETS is at +20 tonight2013-11-07 16:58:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if it holds on Friday, would be a Cash signal2013-11-07 16:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things sort out2013-11-07 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now2013-11-07 16:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's time again to be defensive2013-11-07 16:59:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no new buying indicated until we see if there's anything left in the buyers court2013-11-07 16:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with that2013-11-07 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have to again cut our session short2013-11-07 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we have 3 sessions again next week2013-11-07 16:59:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they won't need to be truncated2013-11-07 16:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until then2013-11-07 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend2013-11-07 16:59:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday2013-11-07 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night2013-11-07 17:00:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx__________________Dave's LinkedIn Profile

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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