North Carolina - Democrats

Thom Tillis said Kay Hagan voted for Obama’s Stimulus Bill then her husband’s company got $390,000 in Stimulus Funds as a pay-off. And Hagan fired back Tillis (as Speaker) put a toll road near Charlotte in exchange for $25,000 in campaign contributions and sold three seats on the UNC Board of Governors for $75,000 in donations to his SuperPac.

Imagine being an Undecided Independent voter.

You don’t like Tillis or Hagan. You’d love to vote against both. But you have to choose one. And a week before the election, you turn on the TV and hear him saying ‘she’s a crook’ and her saying ‘he’s a bigger crook.’

A pollster will usually ask voters: Would you say you 1) Always vote Democratic, 2) Usually vote Democratic, 3) Always vote Republican, 4) Usually vote Republican or 5) would you say you split your ticket and vote for about as many Republicans as Democrats?

Down at the Editorial Board (not in the news room) at the News and Observer the boys have gone 5 for 5 in the local Congressional Races – picking five Democrats and not a single Republican.

They also went 4 for 4 in the County Commissioners races – picking 4 Democrats.

And they endorsed Lorrin Freeman, the Democrat in the District Attorney’s race.

Then they went 12 of 12 – endorsing 12 Democrats in the State House races.

They did endorse one Republican – Sheriff Donnie Harrison – in a backhanded way, spending most of their editorial explaining what Donnie had done wrong and praising his opponent.

At any rate, one thing’s clear: Whoever’s doing the picking down at the N&O Editorial Board isn’t a ticket splitter.

As bleak as Governor McCrory’s job approval numbers were in the WRAL poll, that wasn’t the worst news. Consider how Republicans, Democrats and Independents feel about the General Assembly.

Republican Voters

Approve 35%

Disapprove 38%

Conservative Voters

Approve 33%

Disapprove 37%

Independent Voters

Approve 20%

Disapprove 54%

Now I can imagine Republican leaders over in the legislature pooh-poohing and saying, Ah, well, that doesn’t really matter. We drew the districts.

But how long can a Republican state legislator in any district remain safe if Republicans and Conservatives think he’s doing a poor job?

Four years ago, Republicans won a majority in the General Assembly because voters were angry at Obama. Back then, two numbers ran through polls like plum-lines: Two-thirds of the Independents disapproved of the President – and almost to a man they voted Republican down the line. The correlation between the President’s job disapproval and the Republican vote was nearly absolute.

Which, after the election, led to a miscalculation: Human nature being what it is Republicans, naturally, figured the real reason they’d won was because voters had discovered their virtues, seen the light, converted to the true faith and agreed with Republicans down the line on issues from tax reform to education spending.

Next, naturally, as soon as they were sworn in Republicans started passing bills but before you, say, tell a senior citizen you’re going to start taxing his prescription drugs (as a part of tax reform) you have to explain to him pretty clearly why that’s a good idea and how he’s going to be better off in the long run – because if you don’t you may end up with approval rating of 23%.

When Reverend William Barber and his Moral Monday cohorts starting telling voters Republicans hated children and women and old people and dogs and cats, silence wasn’t the answer. Republican leaders needed to stand up, sound off, and make their case explaining why Reverend Barber was dead-wrong.

But that never happened. And it won’t happen before November 4th. So the next question is simple: How do Republican legislators turn those numbers around before the next election?

The WRAL Poll painted a bleak picture of a Governor caught between a rock and a hard place. As Mark Binker wrote, only a little over a third of the voters approve of the job Governor McCrory is doing.

But worse news lurked beneath the surface.

These days you see polarized groups of voters everywhere. Left, right, up, down, Republican, Democrat; everyone is mad at someone and can’t wait to vote ‘em out of office: Republicans don’t like Obama so they’re voting against Kay Hagan. Democrats don’t like the state legislature so they’re voting against Thom Tillis.

But, buried in the crosstabs of WRAL’s poll, two pitfalls lie in wait for Pat McCrory. Consider the Governor’s job approval rating among Republicans:

Approve 64%

Disapprove 22%

Almost a quarter of the Republicans believe Governor McCrory is doing a poor job. That doesn’t mean they won’t vote for him but whoever heard of a Republican winning a statewide election without winning 90% plus of the Republican vote.

One last statistic: The Governor needs half the Independents vote for him to win. Here’re the numbers:

Now, as a storyline, that’s just about unbeatable. It’s like Lazarus rising from the dead.

The problem is two months ago, two weeks ago, and today (in WRAL’s latest poll), Thom Tillis has trailed Kay Hagan by the same number – 3 points. He hasn’t moved.

He wasn’t dead then and he’s not resurrected now which brings me to a terrible devilment: Temptation. And reporters love of a good story.

Tillis Dying was pure melodrama and the press (especially the Washington press) bought the story hook, line and sinker.

Then the press needed a new story and temptation bit again. Tillis Makes Miraculous Recovery was even greater melodrama. And it beat writing: No Change in Election. Nothing new. Or explaining: Election Mystery: Undecided Voters Dislike Both Tillis and Hagan. Who will they Choose?

In the state where President Obama had his closest win in 2008 and his closest loss in 2012, why wouldn’t the U.S. Senate race be tight as a tick?

Carter has posted a great series of blogs about the race (although he’s wrong on the education issue). My other favorite blogger, Thomas Mills, weighed in on the “State of the Race.” I’m up!

Without the benefit of a good poll (see my blog yesterday), I’m guessing. So I base my guess on watching what the campaigns are doing – and trying to decipher what they think is happening.

First Hagan. Her real feat is that she’s even in this race, let alone tied or just ahead. Given that it’s Obama’s second midterm election and given how low his job ratings are, she could be toast. But she and her team have run a great campaign, far better than Tillis’. They made Tillis and his legislative record the issue. Now, as they fend off the last-minute attacks that feed on fears about ISIS and Ebola, they are focused like a laser on women: yes, issues like defunding Planned Parenthood, but also education, health care, minimum wage and special interests vs. the middle class. They know that women will decide this election, especially women in the big counties. And they have a huge field operation that is also focused on those voters, as Thomas notes.

Tillis’ team looked for a long time like the gang that couldn’t shoot straight. Now they think they’ve found the target: national security. They believe voters will vote against Hagan because she missed a hearing on ISIS, and they either have evidence it works or have convinced themselves it works.

(Of course, if members of Congress going to congressional hearings kept us safe, we’d be safe from ISIS, Ebola and everything up to and including “Zoos: Wild Animal Attacks.” Congress has about a 16 percent approval rating. Do we care who in Congress goes to what hearings to pose, preen and pontificate?)

The question is whether new and insiderish information now, when voters are saturated in ads and conflicting claims, will cut through. And Hagan’s response is, in effect, that she went to ISIS hearings more often than she voted with Obama.

Which brings us to Obama. Now, I think he’s been a great President. He stopped an economic meltdown, started a recovery, reduced the deficit, gave millions more people health care and kept us from doing stupid things overseas – all in the face of Republican die-harders who would wreck the country just to oppose him. But he does it with so little passion he looks passive. He has made the challenge for Hagan and other Democrats immeasurably harder. Especially as we go through our media-induced Great National Ebola Freakout.

For all of you souls in the campaign war rooms, I feel your pain. I’ve been there through those long final days. Sometimes we knew we were winning, sometimes we knew we were losing and sometimes we didn’t know what the hell was happening.

But it will be over in 18 days. Then you can enjoy all us bloggers, commentators and Wednesday-morning quarterbacks picking you apart.

You have to give Kay Hagan credit: A year ago the Swing Voters were ready to roll down the track and vote her out of office – and for a year Hagan kept those voters out of Thom Tillis’ camp.

The one big change in the Senate race – Tillis’ rising unpopularity with Independents – was all Kay Hagan’s doing.

On the other hand, Hagan had problems of her own: She’d been sitting at 43% or 44% or 45% of the vote for months. She’d kept Tillis from moving up. But she hadn’t moved up either. She was just as stuck as Tillis. Only in a different way.

The other day I had a repairman in the office and he said, You’re in politics?

I said, I’m afraid I have to plead guilty to that.

And he said, You know, we’re in a mess. We’re headed for a war and we ain’t got a leader in sight.

He meant ISIS.

And, maybe, that’s what’s going to tip the scales in the Senate race – a threat no one even knew existed six months ago may provide the impetus that moves Independent voters to support either Hagan or Tillis.

After Hagan’s first round of attacks calling Tillis a Tea Partier, a few Swing Voters decided to vote for Hagan, a few decided to vote for Tillis, but most stayed Undecided. Ambivalently Undecided. They didn’t want to vote for Obama-Hagan. But they didn’t want to vote for Tillis either.

The bad news for Tillis was Hagan, by driving up his ‘negatives,’ had put him in a corner. The good news was Tillis had time to get out.

But then, suddenly, Hagan changed directions.

A year ago when the Moral Monday demonstrators descended on Raleigh it was a little like a circus – but it was a circus that got lots of press. Mountains of press. And the protestors’ message was simple.

Republicans in the legislature, they said, were against education. And teachers. And women. And children. And the poor, sick and infirmed.

Over and over they said Republicans had cut spending on public schools.

Now, that wasn’t quite so.

The Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction, June Atkinson, had proposed a budget that said legislators should increase spending on education hundreds of millions of dollars and, in fact, Republicans cut that proposed increase by $500 million.

But that wasn’t exactly a hard cut that meant the state would spend $500 million less on education than the year before.

In fact, since Republicans won a majority in the legislature in 2011 they’ve increased education spending a total of a billion dollars – or 14% – and even when you factor in the costs of increased enrollment and inflation spending on education has still increased 3%.

Republicans didn’t increase spending as much as Democrats like June Atkinson wanted – but there was no staggering $500 million cut.

The problem (for Tillis) was a year ago when the Moral Monday demonstrators charged Republicans had cut spending, no chorus of Republican voices had answered, Wait a minute. That’s not so. Instead, for a year, voters heard Democrats saying Republicans had cut education and when they didn’t hear a contrary word from Republicans they just, naturally, figured it must be so.

For Republican legislators in ‘safe seats’ that didn’t matter much but Thom Tillis wasn’t running in a safe seat – he was running statewide and as soon as Kay Hagan finished telling Swing Voters Tillis was a Koch-Brothers-Tea-Partier the next words out of her mouth were he’d cut education spending $500 million.

A month later Tillis was still stuck in a corner – Independents were still looking at Hagan-Obama and saying, I don’t want to vote for her. But they were also looking at Tillis and saying, I don’t want to vote for him either.