Published 4:00 am, Sunday, July 21, 2002

2002-07-21 04:00:00 PDT Sacramento -- With the stroke of a pen Monday, Gov. Gray Davis will commit car- loving California to a historic seven-year campaign to make the state's enormous auto market greener.

Davis plans to sign a bill that will make California the first state to force automakers to curb greenhouse-gas emissions from vehicles. The legislation could spark similar efforts in other states and in Congress, putting pressure on President Bush to change what many environmentalists view as a go-slow approach to addressing global warming.

The bill Davis will sign is one of the simplest and most hard-fought laws to emerge from the state Capitol this year. It directs state air regulators to enact measures by 2009 to cut vehicle emissions of gases like carbon dioxide and hydrofluorocarbons. The law doesn't say how or by how much -- that's up to regulators.

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"It's a very big deal, even if all it says is this is something we should talk about now and do something about seven years from now," said Daniel Kammen, a professor of energy resources at UC Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy.

The new law gives the 11-member state Air Resources Board until Jan. 1, 2005, to come up with a plan. Lawmakers will have a year to review it; carmakers would have to implement changes in their 2009 models.

Automakers vow to frame the coming debate as an environment-versus- economics battle. Environmentalists, Davis officials and many academics, however, say technological innovation can provide reduced vehicle emissions without adding thousands of dollars to the price of a new car.

GLOBAL AUDIENCE

The board's work will certainly have a global audience and, most believe, a large national impact. California accounts for 13 percent of the nation's auto sales and is also the only state that is allowed by federal law to ratchet up air quality standards. Other states are permitted to follow California's lead.

"We'll show leadership, we'll test technologies in the marketplace and we'll set examples that others are sure to follow," said Winston Hickox, secretary of the California Environmental Protection Agency, noting that past California regulations ushered in national standardization of everything from unleaded gasoline to the catalytic converter.

INDUSTRY MAY FIGHT LAW

What new rules will mean for consumers remains a hot argument.

HUNDREDS OF OPTIONS

The air board will probably consider hundreds of options, ranging from requiring high-tech transmission systems that increase the efficiency at which engines burn gasoline to better seals on air-conditioner systems, which release hydrofluorocarbons.

Forcing more hybrid electric-gasoline engines like those in the Toyota Prius also is a possibility.

Automakers who fought the bill say most of the ideas will either mean more costs to consumers or less-safe vehicles.

AUTOMAKERS REFERENDUM

Bergquist said automakers are considering fighting the law's implementation by bringing a referendum to the November ballot asking voters to overturn the measure.

The industry has a tight timeline to bring about a referendum, and Bergquist said the industry may simply work overtime in California during the two-year hearing process to keep consumers abreast of the process. A $5 million media campaign to defeat the bill, AB1493, nearly paid off for carmakers, as the measure squeaked out of the state Assembly by one vote.

"We would certainly participate and let California drivers know what is being discussed," promised Bergquist.

'NOT ROCKET SCIENCE'

But environmentalists are also working hard to deliver their message: Automakers are already complying with a European Union agreement to cut vehicle emissions, so manufacturers can do the same in America without dramatic changes in what we drive and how much cars cost.

"This is not rocket science, and it doesn't take a lot of new invention," said Roland Hwang, a senior policy analyst with the Natural Resources Defense Council. Hwang drove a Ford Explorer SUV to Sacramento last week to show reporters various tweaks the company could make to ensure even a large vehicle is less polluting.

Hwang and state environmental officials are quick to point out that carmakers have always fought new regulations with the argument that costs will skyrocket. Cries that tougher tailpipe emissions standards enacted in the 1990s would add $800 to vehicle costs have only added about $80, Hwang said.

LOCAL, NATIONAL SUPPORT

The California legislation, plus a recent federal government report that concluded the planet was getting hotter, has environmentalists excited that U. S. politicians may begin to enact changes in state and national policies. A nonpartisan poll found 81 percent of Californians favored the auto emissions bill.

Last week, a group of 11 Democratic attorneys general -- including Bill Lockyer of California -- sent a letter to President Bush pressing for strong federal measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions. And a New York lawmaker announced that he would introduce a vehicle emissions bill modeled after California's.

Bush last year refused to commit to the international Kyoto Protocol, which calls on the United States to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. He instead has proposed industries reach voluntary emission reductions.

Coupled with Congress' rejection this year of legislation to boost fuel economy standards for cars, states like California have to make the first move to address the biggest environmental threat of the new century, Davis said.

"I would prefer Washington take the lead. In the absence of that, we have no choice but to do our part."