A Common man's APEXA (Ambitions) from Manven Rakesh
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Friday, November 30, 2012

Opposition Surrenders to Modi ahead of Poll.

Congress and Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) seems to have taken pre poll surveys carried
out by news channels and newspapers very seriously. They have fielded candidates
who can get some votes on sympathy and not on the strength of their
party or their own socio-political strengths – a clear walkover.

Walkover CandidateSweta Bhatt

All the pre poll surveys have predicted a whopping comeback for Modi. These survey
have forecasted more percentage of votes and seats for Modi this time than the
year 2007. Then 47% votes were polled
in favour of BJP and 117 candidates had won legislative assembly seats. This time about 50% votes and around 125 seats are projected.

Even after such a favourable predictions Modi went back on
his image and theory of no repeat of
maligned ones. This time he has given
tickets to controversial leaders like Amit
Shah, Purshottam Solanki, to make sure
that factors of Keshubhai’s GPP and
dissidence within party does not harm the poll prospects.

But the opposition parties do not want to take advantage of
it and are fielding candidates who do
not mind losing in the return of short time publicity. Congress has
fielded Shweta Bhatt, wife of suspended IPS officer Sanjiv Bhatt against
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi
from Maninagar constituency. Her candidature will spice up the contest and get more bites on visual media but can
she pose any serious threat to the CM ?

"It is not a fight between equals, I agree...but I am
fully confident that I am going with a true heart to say the truth, so people
will support me...I don't have false promises to make," Shweta told
reporters after getting the ticket.

This will only help Modi to reinforce his claim that congress
is misusing CBI to tarnish image of his government and fabricating false
cases. Indirectly Congress has extended
benefit to Controversial former
Gujarat home minister Amit Shah who is contesting from Naranpura. Shah is one
of accused in the Sohrabuddin Sheikh and
Tulsi Prajapati alleged fake encounter cases and is out on bail.

Another disadvantage
to Congress in Naranpura constituency is disgruntled former Deputy Chief Minister
Narhari Amin who is denied ticket by the
party. Amin has threatened to join hands with Modi openly. Senior leadership of
state is now busy in doing fire fighting.

GPP has given ticket to Jagruti Pandya, widow of former home minister
Haren Pandya. Jagruti is challenging BJP's Rakesh Shah in a triangular contest in Ellis Bridge. Haren Pandya was shot dead on
March 26, 2003, near Law Garden area of the city when he had gone for a morning
walk. Haren’s father and later
his widow has been blaming governmrnt
conspiracy in murder and pitching against Modi
for past eight years. In past three elections their cry has failed to
garner any support.

The survey had shown that the intensity of Muslims hating Modi has
reduced. The surveys say, the drop is almost half. Percentage of Muslim respondents who say that they will never vote for Modi has
come down from 44% to 23%. This change
of heart is more because the young generation is getting participative
opportunity in the growth story of the state.
But still, Modi has missed the opportunity to bridge the gap with the
community by not giving ticket to any Muslim candidate.

What does this all mean? The elections this time are one sided, only
over confidence can defeat Modi in December.
However, I foresee
atleast
three of his ministers definitely losing the election. There are not
going to be any shocks to Modi, but for
BJP yes.