ECRI index weakens slightly

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly, falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing to suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff.

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This chart shows the growth of the Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly index over the past decade.The index has turned notably negative which appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.

The latest release of the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff .

The chart above shows the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index growth component since 2001.

Notice that this index has turned notably negative which, along with an erosion in many other key macro-economic series, appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.