Invest 96-L expected to develop into tropical system

There is now a high chance for tropical development for an elongated area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands that is known as Invest 96-L.

Forecasters say Invest 96-L has a 50 percent chance within the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance in the next three to five days.

The National Hurricane Center said it may become a depression in the next day or two.

Invest 96-L has some issues. It’s dealing with a lot of dry air and some strong winds aloft. The wind shear is even stronger over the Lesser Antilles because of an upper-level low north of the Dominican Republic.

Even though the tropical disturbance is over warm water, it’s having a hard time getting organized.

The latest satellite pictures do show deeper convection developing on the northeast side of the system, but a lot of the convection has died down on the west side.

The spaghetti models are grouped over the Northern Lesser Antilles for Thursday night, near Puerto Rico on Friday, near the Dominican Republic on Saturday, and then the models begin to diverge.

The global models are in more agreement. Both the Global Forecast Model (American) and the European Center for Medium Range Prediction Model (European) are now keeping 96-L more to the east.

The GFS brings the system over the north portion of the Dominican Republic, across the Bahamas, then to east Central Florida and north along the coast of Florida.

The European model brings 96-L north of the Dominican Republic, over the northern portion of the Bahamas, then north into the Atlantic offshore of the East Coast.

The models will continue to flip-flop until the system develops, then they will have a better handle on where 96-L is.

Hurricane models do not do a good job on a system that does not have a closed low-level circulation.Even though a lower-than-average hurricane season is forecast, it just takes one. Hurricane season usually heats up in late August into September.

This is a good time to get ready and be prepared.

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