Also, the 1st debate for the PSD leadership occurred yesterday, and it had one winner... António Costa:

Rui Rio and Santana Lopes went face to face, for the 1st time, in a debate. The debate started normal with the 2 candidates criticizing the new party party financing law, but it got ugly when Santana confronted Rio with his accusation that Santana's term in office was "a mess".

1st debate between Rio and Santana, broadcast on RTP1.

Santana hammered heavily Rio, accusing him of being disloyal, Rio was VP of the party during the short tenure of Santana (2004-2005), adding also that he has criticized more the party than António Costa. Rio responded by remembering Santana of his feud with Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa in the 90's, where Santana threatened to leave the PSD to form a new party, the PSL - Social Liberal Party. The debate was heavily centered in the past, and not in the future. On the 2nd half of the debate, Rio recovered. Rio laid out a more convincing set of policies, while Santana was quite vague. In the final remarks, Santana proposed to create a "moderate alternative" against Costa, while Rio asked voters who is in better shape to be PM, he or Santana, adding that Santana already was PM and didn't performed well and that the party needs to take a step ahead, and not backwards.

Rio has the support from the big bastions of the PSD: Aveiro, Bragança, Viseu, Vila Real and Leiria; Santana Lopes has the support of the biggest districts in terms of voters: Porto and Lisbon and dominates in the South. Braga, a district that's becoming more and more pró-PSD, and Setúbal didn't support any candidate.

In terms of party standings on the bill, PS is in favour but will give freedom of vote to its MPs; BE and PAN will vote in favour; CDS will vote against. PSD and CDU are still undecided and will announce their position tomorrow. Nonetheless, the vote is expected to be close.

What seems to be holding back parties isn't the legalization of medical marijuana itself, but the fact that the bill proposed by BE/PAN also allows the self-cultivation of the plant, in limited quantities, by the patient and with the agreement of authorities.

Rio has the support from the big bastions of the PSD: Aveiro, Bragança, Viseu, Vila Real and Leiria; Santana Lopes has the support of the biggest districts in terms of voters: Porto and Lisbon and dominates in the South. Braga, a district that's becoming more and more pró-PSD, and Setúbal didn't support any candidate.

What's the electoral system for PSD leadership elections? FPTP or 2 rounds? (Though with only 2 candidates it doesn't really matter)

Also, who is allowed to vote? All Portuguese people over 18? (like France and the USA) Only registered party members who pay membership dues? (like 3/4 parties here) Only those who attend the "PSD national congess"? (like PP here or PSOE up until 2015)

It's quite simple, wins who has more votes. I don't think the party has second rounds because in 2008, Manuela Ferreira Leite was elected with only 38% of the votes.

Only members members who pay membership dues can vote. The PSD has around 120,000 active members, although the party has a total of 215,000 members but 90,000-95,000 are inactive. To be registered to vote, members have to pay membership dues until a certain date, and for this leadership election, 70,385 members of the PSD are registered to vote.

The second debate between the PSD candidates was, once again, focused on the past, but Rui Rio was able to gain some points against Santana:

The second debate, on TVI, between the two candidates for the PSD leadership saw, according to pundits, a much more stronger Rui Rio and a somewhat subdued Santana Lopes. Nonetheless, the debate was once again very focused on the past, particularly in the moves and statements each had in 2004-2005 and in the last few years, but Rio was able to outmaneuver Santana's attacks from the last debate about his remarks of the "mistakes" Santana did as PM. But overall, the debate was a tie.

The Final debate between Rio and Santana was different. Both candidates didn't talk about the past and talked more about the future:

The final debate between Rui Rio and Santana Lopes happened this morning on TSF and Antena 1 radios. The debate was less violent and more focused on each candidates' ideas and policies. Nonetheless, some differences were visible. Rio promissed to put the party "in order", and asked for respect whoever wins the election; Santana agreed and invited Rio to be in his team if he wins the elections.

Rui Rio and Santana Lopes in the final debate on the radio.

In terms of policies, both agree on the urgency of a reduction of corporate taxes, but disagree on some social issues. Rui Rio is open to discuss the legalization of prostitution, while Santana says it's complicated. Rio is also in favour of medical marijuana, while Santana is aligned with the PSD caucus which will vote against the policy.

Rio and Santana are also open to reform the Constitution. Rio wants a shorter and less ideological Constitution, while Santana says he favour reforms in the Constitution in regard on electoral laws. The big argument between both in this last debate, was the entry, or not, of Santa Casa da Misericordia, the largest state charity institution, in the capital of Montepio bank. Rio is totally against saying that the money is to close holes in the bank and that the money in Santa Casa is to help the poor. Santana, who was president of Santa Casa da Misericordia between 2011-2017, responded saying that he did everything to see if the deal was good or not.

Their similarities have triggered comparisons with Thomson and Thompson, the hapless lookalike detectives in the Tintin comic strips.

Rio and Santana Lopes are both veteran Social Democratic Party (PSD) bigwigs, which has prompted doubts over their ability to inject new life into a party in urgent need of renewal and which is languishing far behind Prime Minister António Costa’s Socialists in the polls.

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The rivals don’t just look alike. Similarities abound in their programs, each packed with good intentions on investment, innovation and support for public services.

Neither is likely to take the Portuguese right on a radical turn.

Santana Lopes is more conservative. Rio would shift the party closer to the center left and is open to striking deals with Costa and his Socialists.

“We’re not Thomson and Thompson,” Santana Lopes said during last week’s televised debate, telling Rio: “It’s you and António Costa who are Thomson and Thompson, you’re like Siamese twins.”

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For many, however, the real winners in the Social Democrats’ mud-slinging campaign have been Assunção Cristas, youthful leader of the CDS-People’s Party, a smaller conservative outfit on the right of the Social Democrats, and Costa himself.

The prime minister may be more troubled this year with truculent leftist partners and their strike-happy union friends than any resurgence of the PSD.

My take on the campaign is that Santana Lopes, right now, is the most likely to win. He was the clear underdog in this race, but was able to gain more and more momentum as the campaign rolled on. He was much more focused on the party, while Rio was much focused on the country, and i don't know if Rio made the right call here. The PSD membership, the core base of the party, may still be heavily bitter after what happened in 2015, and Rio's proposed regime reforms, that would have to include the PS, plus his willingness of not doing what Costa did to Passos Coelho in 2015, may be too much for many party members.

If the PSD election were open to all voters, i would vote for Rio. First because i like him, and second because he doesn't have the past Santana has, and, IMO, in a Santana leadership we could see a very defensive PSD against a PS who will, over and over again, remind voters of the troubled past Santana had. I'm not saying it will be easier for Rio, but, as a PSD regular voter, the risk of electing Santana is higher than electing Rio. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

Yes, the "establishment", or the Passos Coelho team, all wanted Santana to win. No doubt about that. I really thought Santana might win because of the huge support the "establishment" gave to him in the last few days of the campaign, but it seems that the PSD base was frustrated by the kind of rhetoric and line the party had towards the PS and Costa. In a post above, i said that i wasn't sure if the PSD base wasn't still bitter about 2015, but, the reality, is that they're not.