Cotton higher as traders contemplate planting area

General Comments: Futures were higher as speculators contemplated less planted area next year. Bull spreads were featured as the market tries to find some Cotton. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after the failed Chinese government auction a week ago. Buyers there said that the government wanted high prices for inferior Cotton and that they would continue to import even with higher taxes. The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the U.S. because of weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta areas will turn dry this week. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions, although a few showers are possible late in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Texas will get dry weather this week and a shower this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA spot price is now 74.77 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.108 million bales, from 0.108 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 78.00, 77.00, and 76.90 March, with resistance of 80.55, 85.25, and 87.00 March.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher again on what appeared to be speculative short covering as warm and mostly dry weather continued in Florida. Weather remains good in Florida, although more rain would be beneficial. Temperatures remain mild in the state, and conditions are mostly dry. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions to continue. Fruit is holding for now, and irrigation is being used by producers to hold crop condition. Harvest in Florida of mid and early oranges is continuing. Demand for domestically produced Juice remains down from last year. Weather in Brazil is reported to be good. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures and light showers or dry conditions. The USDA cold storage report showed increased supplies from the market, which mirrors the trend in the weekly data from the Florida Mutual Association. Harvest is continuing, so an increase in supplies should be expected at this time of year.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. USDA said that FCOJ in cold storage is now 695,489 pounds, from 598,005 pounds at the end of November

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 119.00 and 125.00 March. Support is at 113.50, 110.00, and 109.00 March, with resistance at 118.00, 122.00, and 126.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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