MLB Cheat Sheet: April 25th

Tuesday brings us a 14-game slate that features Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw. Although tonight features almost every team, we have a lot of weather concerns to deal with that could drastically change the landscape of this evening. Let’s jump right into all the information, and, as always, you can get me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Game Notes

Top Pitcher

L.A. Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants – Clayton Kershaw ($14,300) – Kershaw and the Dodgers are the heavy favorites on this slate as they take on the Giants. Kershaw has crossed the $14K salary range for the first time this season and is $3,900 more than Danny Duffy of the Royals, the second most expensive pitcher. I think we’re all aware that Kershaw is an option every time he throws, so let’s take a quick look at what the Giants have been doing offensively. They’ve been struggling offensively, owning a team .287 wOBA with a .296 OBP. They’re still one of the toughest teams to strikeout with an 18.7 K%, but that hasn’t stopped Kershaw in the past. Last season against lefties, the Giants owned an 18.4 K%, ranked second lowest in the league, and Kershaw still managed an 8.9 K/9 in five games against them.

Highest Totals

Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies – 11.5 projected runs – Both of these teams combined for 12 runs last night with the Rockies scoring eight of them. We should be seeing more of the same tonight as Joe Ross takes the mound for the Nationals and German Marquez, making his first start of the season for the Rockies. Marquez has very little major league experience, logging just 20.2 innings from last season. The young right-hander has good control of his fastball and his limited his walks in his minor league career, but we all know Coors Field can do wonders to a pitcher. As always, this game should be on your radar, even with the potential of rain coming along.

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – 9.5 projected runs – The second highest total of the night belongs to the Padres visiting the Diamondbacks. These teams combined for 13 runs last night as the Padres roughed up the D-Backs bullpen to score five of their six runs. The Padres will be running out Clayton Richard, a left-handed pitcher, to the mound tonight. That’s music to fantasy players’ ears, as the D-Backs were a force against lefties last season. The D-Backs combined for a team .343 wOBA against lefties last season with a .456 SLG and a .347 OBP. Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Owings all had at least a .350 wOBA against lefties in 2016.

Weather Concerns

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Citizen Bank Park) – This game will most likely start with a delay, as they’ll have a window of clearing soon after. This game should be able to play tonight.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles (Camden Yards) – Nothing overly heavy regarding rain, but the threat of it will continue all throughout the night. It’s worthy of another look as first pitch draws closer.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Citi Field) – Gross. That’s the best way to describe how the weather will be on the East Coast tonight. I find it highly unlikely they’ll fit this game in.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox (Fenway Park) – This game has been postponed.

Park Factors

Park Factors are ranked on a scale of 1.000. Anything above 1.000 is favorable towards the hitters. Anything below that mark favors pitchers.

Guaranteed Rate Field – Kanas City Royals vs.Chicago White Sox – Chicago is home to our second least favorable ballpark to hitters tonight. Only home runs and triples got the nod here last season.

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB

OPS

AVG

Best vs. LHB

OPS

AVG

Jesse Hahn

1.069

.361

Clayton Kershaw

.309

.138

Erasmo Ramiez

.905

.290

Danny Duffy

.449

.183

Andrew Cashner

.903

.291

Robert Gsellman

.589

.230

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB

OPS

AVG

Best vs. RHB

OPS

AVG

Luis Severino

.872

.286

Clayton Kershaw

.529

.201

Jordan Zimmermann

.862

.309

Kyle Hendricks

.555

.198

Patrick Corbin

.851

.300

Julio Teheran

.564

.212

Batter vs. Pitcher Splits

Hitter

Opposing SP

AB

FP/AB*

Chris Davis

Erasmo Ramirez

19

4.26

Mike Napoli

Ervin Santana

25

3.32

*(Fantasy Points Per At Bat)

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Marco Estrada – TOR vs. STL – $8,800 – Yes, Kershaw is the top option tonight and he’s tough to fade. However, I think Estrada gets overlooked almost every single time he takes the mound. Tonight he takes on the Cardinals in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium against a team that is struggling at the plate. The Cardinals currently own a team .309 wOBA against righties with a .310 OBP and a 21.1 K%. Estrada at just $8,800 feels quite friendly for this matchup and slate, seeing as we have four pitchers that are at least $10K in salary. Estrada has shut down the Orioles and Red Sox in back-to-back outings, allowing no runs on seven hits in 13 innings with a 15:5 K: BB ratio.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Paul Goldschmidt – ARI vs. SD – $5,000 – Goldschmidt against a left-handed pitcher at home is about as automatic of a play for me as it gets. Goldy was an absolute force in these situations last season, owning a .519 wOBA with a .714 SLG and a .554 OBP. He’s the most expensive first baseman on the slate, but with Kershaw and a Coors Field game, I could see his ownership being lower than normal. Clayton Richard allowed a .345 wOBA against righties last season with a .420 SLG.

Save Big by Drafting…

Taylor Motter – SEA vs. DET – $3,100 – Motter has quietly hit five bombs already this season while averaging 9.1 FPPG. Tonight, he’ll face Jordan Zimmermann, who struggled against righties at Comerica Park last season. Zimmermann posted a .423 wOBA in those situations with a .611 SLG and a .393 OBP. Motter is dirt cheap tonight and could help ease the burden of some of the high priced players.

Stack Em Up

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Zach Davies) – With the Coors Field teams and D-Backs being talked about today, I think a Reds stack could go overlooked tonight. They’ll take on Zach Davies who has been hit hard in his three starts at home thus far. Davies has pitched 14.2 innings allowing 15 runs on 24 hits with a 12:8 K: BB ratio. The Reds have been scoring a bunch of runs lately, with 75 against righties, good for fourth in the league.

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Jacob deGrom • SP • NYM

Jacob deGrom continues late surge for Cy Young

Last season, deGrom ($11,500) ran away with the National League Cy Young. He had a historic season and his 1.70 ERA was one of the best marks in the history of the league. That kind of performance is tough to replicate, but he's been on the mark since the All-Star break. He has a sub 2.00 ERA in the second half of the season and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 13 starts. Tonight's performance was one of his best of the year. Pitching against the Dodgers, the best team in the National League, deGrom worked seven shutout innings and tallied eight strikeouts. He finished with 29.35 DKFP and could be on his way to back to back Cy Young Awards.

Eduardo Rodriguez strikes out 12 in pitchers' duel

Rodriguez ($10,300) went back-and-forth dueling with Aaron Nola ($9,500) tonight. Both allowed just a single run and the game came down to the bullpens. Neither starter got a decision although Rodriguez had the edge in the department we care about, fantasy points. The dozen strikeouts for E-Rod are a season-high and he scored 33.4 DKFP even though he didn't get the win bonus. On the other side of the game, Nola was no slouch. He pitched seven innings, striking out nine batters against a potent Boston offense and scored 27.55 DKFP. The lose for Philly was costly and moves it 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. The Phillies need a near-flawless finish to the season to clinch a playoff birth.

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