New tensions on the "black gold"

04/15/2013 | 05:47 pmOpinion : Bearish under 111 Target price : 98

Recent macroeconomic publications from the United States are not in favor of the Brent, quite the contrary. Indeed, the activity data are, for the majority, worse than expected. Environment is the same in Europe : European PMI’s are well below 50 (46.8 for the manufacturing index and 46.4 for non-manufacturing).

In addition, the monthly U.S. unemployment figures and the economic outlook evoked by Mario Draghi at the ECB's monthly conference also confirm this downturn.

Finally, increasing oil inventories in the United States confirms the tension on energetic activity in North America.

We had identified last month a neutral zone (USD 106.5 / 119) in weekly data which the lower limit is being tested.
Technically, this exit from the bottom opens up new downward targets with USD 102.8 as the last bulwark. The breakdown of this level would strongly downgrade the trend to aim the USD 98.

Therefore, under the USD 106.5, a short position can be opened by the most aggressive investors. As previously stated, the target price will be placed around USD 98 and the stop-loss above USD 110.