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Ryan Knaus

Saturday Dose

Noah's Arch

Injuries took a heavy toll this week, shifting player values and outlooks overnight, so this week's Saturday Dose will break down the latest updates as of Saturday afternoon, letting you know who's in, probable, hopeful, questionable, iffy, unlikely, doubtful, or out. Game news and random information and analysis is sprinkled throughout, and for more information (and links) you can always refer to Rotoworld's ever-changing injury report.

Andrea Bargnani (elbow) sat out Friday's game in Canada, but his return is seemingly imminent and he might be in uniform for Sunday's matinee. (As an aside, why do the Raptors play every single Sunday afternoon...something to do with a TV contract? Update courtesy of RW reader Wilson: "The Raptors play Sundays because they share the ACC with the Leafs who generally play on Saturdays ... During a typical week, I find the Raptors play Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, while the Leafs play on the other days." Makes sense, and thanks for all of your replies!) Bargnani should get all the minutes he can handle in the coming weeks as the Raptors try to entice a team to trade for him. Assuming his shot returns and he posts a few eye-catching games with 20+ points, fantasy owners should be trying as hard as Bryan Colangelo to unload him.

For the Spurs, Manu Ginobili (tight hamstring) will not play on Saturday, Tim Duncan (knee) is probable to play after four DNPs, and both DeJuan Blair (knee) and Matt Bonner (knee) seem ready to roll. Random aside: if you haven’t used NBA.com’s advanced stats tools, you should check it out. This link shows how the Spurs compare with the Wizards, their opponent on Saturday, but there are tons of ways to slice the data.

Wesley Matthews is expected to sit out Saturday's game with a sprained ankle that caused him to leave the arena on Friday with crutches and a walking boot. The Blazers' bench is too poor to expect anyone to mimic his production this weekend, though owners hunting 3-pointers should have Luke Babbitt in their sights. Ronnie Price is also questionable to play on Saturday with a sprained ankle.

Suns veteran Jermaine O'Neal has been out with an irregular heartbeat, but fortunately it was caught early and treated with medication, and he's due back on Tuesday. We've yet to see how much he'll play under Lindsey Hunter, but his return won't do anything to help Marcin Gortat, who over the past four games has averaged 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 blocks, while playing only 30 minutes per game. Much has been made of Michael Beasley’s mini breakout since Hunter took over, but Friday’s game (four points on 2-of-13 shooting, three turnovers in 28 minutes) was a great reminder that B-EZ is about as reliable as a knockoff Rolex 50 feet underwater.

In a rare spot of bright news for the Wolves, Ricky Rubio will no longer be playing with a medical minute-limit. I'd be more excited if he weren't shooting 29.3 percent from the field this season, with a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He's also shooting 1-of-16 from downtown this season, an appalling total which fantasy owners would do well to remember. Personally, I'd try to use the lifting of his minute-limit as an opportunity to trade him...failing that, I'm not against cutting him in re-draft leagues for the flavor-of-the-week. His per-game value is mired in the late-200s in both eight- and nine-cat leagues, and even with more minutes and a subsequent across-the-board boost, you'd probably have to punt FG percentage to wring value out of him. Again, Plan A is to trade him since his name carries more weight than his game this season.

Jason Richardson's knees are an ongoing issue and he's scheduled to soon visit a specialist in Colorado, which makes him very iffy for Monday's game. Nick Young is playing well in seven games as a fill-in starter, averaging 16.7 points, 2.3 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals and only 1.0 turnovers in 35 minutes per game. Just keep in mind that he's prone to cold spells and his value is weighted heavily toward shooting/scoring stats, so he's a volatile fantasy option.

Elsewhere in the City of Brotherly Love, Andrew Bynum (knees) could return to action as soon as Feb 20, though I remain skeptical of his timetable until we've seen him running full-court during 5-on-5 drills. He has enough upside, however, that I recommend stashing him if (and only if) you're cruising into the fantasy playoffs.

The Magic have been limping along for most of the season and Jameer Nelson was the latest injury victim, hurting his forearm on Friday and finishing with just two points in 19 minutes. X-rays were negative but there was enough swelling to require a compression sleeve and I'll be surprised if he doesn't have more tests performed on Saturday, leaving him iffy to play vs. the Bucks. Hopefully it's nothing serious, as he's coming off one of the best months in his career, with January averages of 18.9 points, 3.0 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Those numbers are good enough for top-30 value.

Arron Afflalo remains day-to-day with a sore calf and a strained left Achilles. It seems like a classic scenario where one injury led to another injury due to overcompensation, and rest is the best option. J.J. Redick has been the guy to step up reliably in his absence.

The Hawks are expected to get Anthony Morrow back in the near future, possibly as soon as Saturday. He sat out the entire month of January with hip and back issues and for now I'd avoid him outside of deep leagues -- even without Lou Williams the Hawks have enough SG/SFs to limit Morrow's playing time. One of those guards, Devin Harris, is battling an ankle injury but is expected to play off the bench on Saturday. DeShawn Stevenson is a perpetual game-time decision who won't play in consecutive games. John Jenkins is mopping up minutes off the bench and the only guy I trust here is Kyle Korver, who is simply freaking out in his past 15 games, averaging 13.1 points, 3.3 three-pointers, 4.3 boards, 2.2 assists and 0.9 steals, while shooting 52 percent on FGs and 81 percent on FTs. He's outperforming Nicolas Batum and Dwyane Wade in nine-cat leagues over the past month and should continue to be a rock-solid value, even when these gaudy numbers begin to fade. Zaza Pachulia is doubtful to play on Saturday with a sore Achilles, which would be his third DNP in the past five games. With Al Horford healthy, Zaza is only relevant in 20-team leagues.

The Bulls are nearly as banged up as the Hawks, though for once Luol Deng isn't in the pool of injured players. Kirk Hinrich (elbow) is questionable for Saturday's game, Carlos Boozer is very iffy with a "sore and stiff" hamstring, and Derrick Rose (knee) is probably out until after the All-Star break, but he has begun full-contact work and I won't be shocked if he's back sooner. The bad news is that Joakim Noah is out indefinitely with swelling and plantar fasciitis, the same injury that cost him 17 games and put him on a minute-limit during the 2009-10 season. It's a chronic condition (as Nene can attest) which has reared its ugly head again for Joakim, and his owners should be blitzing their leagues with trade offers. It never hurts to try, so aim high. Taj Gibson will start at center as long as Noah is out, and makes a very nice target for those in need of boards and blocks.

Injuries took a heavy toll this week, shifting player values and outlooks overnight, so this week's Saturday Dose will break down the latest updates as of Saturday afternoon, letting you know who's in, probable, hopeful, questionable, iffy, unlikely, doubtful, or out. Game news and random information and analysis is sprinkled throughout, and for more information (and links) you can always refer to Rotoworld's ever-changing injury report.

Andrea Bargnani (elbow) sat out Friday's game in Canada, but his return is seemingly imminent and he might be in uniform for Sunday's matinee. (As an aside, why do the Raptors play every single Sunday afternoon...something to do with a TV contract? Update courtesy of RW reader Wilson: "The Raptors play Sundays because they share the ACC with the Leafs who generally play on Saturdays ... During a typical week, I find the Raptors play Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays, while the Leafs play on the other days." Makes sense, and thanks for all of your replies!) Bargnani should get all the minutes he can handle in the coming weeks as the Raptors try to entice a team to trade for him. Assuming his shot returns and he posts a few eye-catching games with 20+ points, fantasy owners should be trying as hard as Bryan Colangelo to unload him.

For the Spurs, Manu Ginobili (tight hamstring) will not play on Saturday, Tim Duncan (knee) is probable to play after four DNPs, and both DeJuan Blair (knee) and Matt Bonner (knee) seem ready to roll. Random aside: if you haven’t used NBA.com’s advanced stats tools, you should check it out. This link shows how the Spurs compare with the Wizards, their opponent on Saturday, but there are tons of ways to slice the data.

Wesley Matthews is expected to sit out Saturday's game with a sprained ankle that caused him to leave the arena on Friday with crutches and a walking boot. The Blazers' bench is too poor to expect anyone to mimic his production this weekend, though owners hunting 3-pointers should have Luke Babbitt in their sights. Ronnie Price is also questionable to play on Saturday with a sprained ankle.

Suns veteran Jermaine O'Neal has been out with an irregular heartbeat, but fortunately it was caught early and treated with medication, and he's due back on Tuesday. We've yet to see how much he'll play under Lindsey Hunter, but his return won't do anything to help Marcin Gortat, who over the past four games has averaged 11.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 blocks, while playing only 30 minutes per game. Much has been made of Michael Beasley’s mini breakout since Hunter took over, but Friday’s game (four points on 2-of-13 shooting, three turnovers in 28 minutes) was a great reminder that B-EZ is about as reliable as a knockoff Rolex 50 feet underwater.

In a rare spot of bright news for the Wolves, Ricky Rubio will no longer be playing with a medical minute-limit. I'd be more excited if he weren't shooting 29.3 percent from the field this season, with a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He's also shooting 1-of-16 from downtown this season, an appalling total which fantasy owners would do well to remember. Personally, I'd try to use the lifting of his minute-limit as an opportunity to trade him...failing that, I'm not against cutting him in re-draft leagues for the flavor-of-the-week. His per-game value is mired in the late-200s in both eight- and nine-cat leagues, and even with more minutes and a subsequent across-the-board boost, you'd probably have to punt FG percentage to wring value out of him. Again, Plan A is to trade him since his name carries more weight than his game this season.

Jason Richardson's knees are an ongoing issue and he's scheduled to soon visit a specialist in Colorado, which makes him very iffy for Monday's game. Nick Young is playing well in seven games as a fill-in starter, averaging 16.7 points, 2.3 threes, 2.7 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.9 steals and only 1.0 turnovers in 35 minutes per game. Just keep in mind that he's prone to cold spells and his value is weighted heavily toward shooting/scoring stats, so he's a volatile fantasy option.

Elsewhere in the City of Brotherly Love, Andrew Bynum (knees) could return to action as soon as Feb 20, though I remain skeptical of his timetable until we've seen him running full-court during 5-on-5 drills. He has enough upside, however, that I recommend stashing him if (and only if) you're cruising into the fantasy playoffs.

The Magic have been limping along for most of the season and Jameer Nelson was the latest injury victim, hurting his forearm on Friday and finishing with just two points in 19 minutes. X-rays were negative but there was enough swelling to require a compression sleeve and I'll be surprised if he doesn't have more tests performed on Saturday, leaving him iffy to play vs. the Bucks. Hopefully it's nothing serious, as he's coming off one of the best months in his career, with January averages of 18.9 points, 3.0 threes, 3.7 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. Those numbers are good enough for top-30 value.

Arron Afflalo remains day-to-day with a sore calf and a strained left Achilles. It seems like a classic scenario where one injury led to another injury due to overcompensation, and rest is the best option. J.J. Redick has been the guy to step up reliably in his absence.

The Hawks are expected to get Anthony Morrow back in the near future, possibly as soon as Saturday. He sat out the entire month of January with hip and back issues and for now I'd avoid him outside of deep leagues -- even without Lou Williams the Hawks have enough SG/SFs to limit Morrow's playing time. One of those guards, Devin Harris, is battling an ankle injury but is expected to play off the bench on Saturday. DeShawn Stevenson is a perpetual game-time decision who won't play in consecutive games. John Jenkins is mopping up minutes off the bench and the only guy I trust here is Kyle Korver, who is simply freaking out in his past 15 games, averaging 13.1 points, 3.3 three-pointers, 4.3 boards, 2.2 assists and 0.9 steals, while shooting 52 percent on FGs and 81 percent on FTs. He's outperforming Nicolas Batum and Dwyane Wade in nine-cat leagues over the past month and should continue to be a rock-solid value, even when these gaudy numbers begin to fade. Zaza Pachulia is doubtful to play on Saturday with a sore Achilles, which would be his third DNP in the past five games. With Al Horford healthy, Zaza is only relevant in 20-team leagues.

The Bulls are nearly as banged up as the Hawks, though for once Luol Deng isn't in the pool of injured players. Kirk Hinrich (elbow) is questionable for Saturday's game, Carlos Boozer is very iffy with a "sore and stiff" hamstring, and Derrick Rose (knee) is probably out until after the All-Star break, but he has begun full-contact work and I won't be shocked if he's back sooner. The bad news is that Joakim Noah is out indefinitely with swelling and plantar fasciitis, the same injury that cost him 17 games and put him on a minute-limit during the 2009-10 season. It's a chronic condition (as Nene can attest) which has reared its ugly head again for Joakim, and his owners should be blitzing their leagues with trade offers. It never hurts to try, so aim high. Taj Gibson will start at center as long as Noah is out, and makes a very nice target for those in need of boards and blocks.

Jared Sullinger's back surgery thrusts Brandon Bass into the starting PF job for Boston and I'm hoping that unchallenged playing time will breed greater confidence and consistency. Bass averaged 10.7 shot attempts per game last season, but he's taken 10+ shots just once in the past two months and remains a wait-and-see player in most leagues. Jeff Green had 17 points, four rebounds, four assists, one steal and three blocks in Friday's win, and he's even more intriguing than Bass. He has three-point range (33.5 percent for his career) and the potential to average 12+ points with a steal and a block per game. He may not quite get there, but given 30 minutes a night (realistic given Boston's injury woes) I'd expect him to post 10th-round value on the strength of his versatility. And if the Celtics wind up trading Paul Pierce, Green could even find himself with a plump role in the starting lineup.

Injury Interlude...

Deron Williams tweaked his ankle in Friday's game but said that he'll be fine.

Kevin Martin (hip) is expected to play on Saturday and his status was never in doubt. He's averaging 14.5 points, 2.2 threes and 1.1 steals in the past month, with typically strong percentages.

Eric Gordon has a sore back, but he played on Friday and is probable for Saturday's game, potentially his first back-to-back action of the season. He's battling random soreness as his body adjusts to playing after such a long layoff, and thankfully this doesn't seem like a lasting concern.

Raymond Felton (pinkie) aggravated his injury on Friday and was in "a lot of pain," but he's not expected to miss any games.

Stephen Curry (ankle) remains questionable to face the Suns on Saturday. We should have an update soon enough, but I wouldn't bet on his availability.

Glen Davis (foot surgery) is more than likely done for the season and rookie Andrew Nicholson has some upside as a fantasy replacement, assuming he gets sufficient playing time. Nicholson has started 10 games this year, averaging 10.3 points with 4.6 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.4 blocks in just 20 minutes. He shoots above-average percentages and only has to fend off Josh McRoberts, Gustavo Ayon and possibly Al Harrington (knee) for playing time, so keep an eye on him.

Speaking of Al Harrington...I recently received a question from RW reader Joseph Moreno, who asked whether he should consider picking up Al, who is nearing a return after multiple knee surgeries but still has no firm return date. My answer is a simple 'no.' Big Baby's surgery has opened up significant opportunities, but guys like Nicholson and Ayon are more likely to fill the void than Harrington, who is in the final guaranteed year of his contract. McBob is also playing in the final year of his deal, something to keep in mind when you're parsing Jacque Vaughn's potential lineups.

Eric Bledsoe’s numbers as a starter in place of Chris Paul (bruised kneecap) do have the asterisk I usually append to players' per-36-minute stats – there is no guarantee that a player can extrapolate his statistical rates and efficiency with an increased role, due to improved competition, foul trouble (typically afflicting big men), conditioning, chemistry with teammates, and more.

In 33 minutes per game as a starter: 11.6 points on 37.1 percent FGs, 5.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.0 blocks.

Generally speaking these numbers are excellent, and I'm not suggesting that an eight-game sample proves that Bledsoe isn't a solid starting PG – he is. The Clippers are 5-3 in Chris Paul's absence and Bledsoe's scoring is the only area that has notably suffered, and even that could be dismissed as a mere slump independent of his adjustments as a starter. Some players go the opposite direction, too, erupting with sufficient playing time after struggling in a reserve role, having been unable to find an elusive 'rhythm' for reasons physical, mental or both. Ersan Ilyasova, for instance, was lousy for much of this season in a limited role before Scott Skiles' departure, yet he's thriving in an expanded role under Jim Boylan. It’s an exciting and inexact pastime, guessing how players will fare in different roles, but one thing I’m certain of – Bledsoe will be an above-average starting PG in the near future, and the low FG percentage is only disguising his true value.

David West scored 30 points in a convincing win vs. the Heat, making 12-of-15 FGs and 6-of-6 FTs, with seven rebounds, five assists, zero turnovers, and zero personal fouls. That might be the first time I've ever listed 'fouls' in a stat line unless the guy fouled out, but West deserves some notice for averaging just 1.9 fouls in 34 minutes per game this season. He's committing fewer fouls than any season since his rookie year, while playing underrated defense as the starting PF on the league's stingiest defense (gauged by points allowed per 100 possessions). The Pacers took a leap of faith by signing him to a sizable contract while he was recovering from knee surgery and it's paying huge dividends.

Danny Granger went through a half-court scrimmage on Thursday but he hasn’t been cleared for contact and there is no clear return date. I field tons of questions about how Granger will affect Paul George (15 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals on Friday). George is an elite player and he has established himself as the future of the franchise, a process sped up by Granger's injury and Roy Hibbert's uninspiring play. However, in re-draft leagues, I do view this as a sell-high moment. Granger's return, possibly in late February, seems like an inevitable knock on George's fantasy value. His real-world value and importance to the Pacers is unchanged, but he may see a decrease in his career-high 15.2 shot attempts per game, as well as his career-high 37 minutes per game (16th-most in the NBA).

In other Indy-injury news, George Hill exited Friday's game with a bruised left shoulder and he's listed as day-to-day. I am very fond of Hill's understated averages this season, which give him fifth-round value in nine-cat leagues: 14.5 points, 1.7 three-pointers, 4.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.4 blocks, with 43.5 percent FGs and 84 percent FTs. He's also been playing through injuries for most of the season, an unquantified yet critical component of his appeal, and I'm subtly moved by the fact that the Spurs' braintrust was reluctant to part with him even to acquire Kawhi Leonard, whom they coveted. The point guard of the NBA's third-least-efficient offense surely doesn't earn or deserve many plaudits, but Indiana isn't exactly stacked with options. According to data from Synergy Sports, the Pacers rely heavily on their post game (where David West is propping up the below-average Roy Hibbert), as well as spot-up opportunities (where Paul George and Gerald Green dominate the touches with poor results). Hill, meanwhile, is holding up his end by knocking down a career-best 65 percent of his chances at the rim and 36 percent of his 3-pointers. The shoulder injury isn’t serious, and fantasy owners shouldn’t sleep on him.

Bradley Beal is not expected to play on Saturday as he rests his injured wrist, per doctor's orders. A few more DNPs may be coming, but Beal was playing very well before getting hurt and he's an exciting backcourt partner for John Wall, which makes him an intriguing player to own in the second half of the season. Wall, meanwhile, hurt his shoulder during Friday's game and was in pain afterward, though he said, "I think everything is fine." The results from further testing should be available on Saturday -- if he is forced to miss any time, Jordan Crawford instantly becomes a nice pickup, and even Garrett Temple would be worth keeping an eye on. Washington has lost three straight games after going 7-3 in their previous 10 games, and they face the unforgiving Spurs on Saturday.

Let's go back to John Wall for a moment. He's averaging 26 minutes per game since his return from a stress reaction in his knee on January 12th, posting 14.1 points on 43.4 percent shooting (a career-high), with 2.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.9 blocks and 3.0 turnovers. He desperately needs to improve his jumper and his range (0-of-7 from downtown this season), and with the Wizards' current construction I'm not banking on substantial statistical improvement this season (i.e. I cap him at mid-round ROS value). However, the following information should be taken to heart by owners in keeper leagues, and remembered by everyone else on draft day next year:

Kevin Seraphin had eight points and two boards in 20 minutes on Friday, as the Wizards fell to the regrouping Grizzlies, 76-85. He has scored double-digit points twice in the past eight games and simply isn't getting enough playing time to make in impact in fantasy leagues. I've been anticipating a slow increase in Seraphin's role, leading to a starting job in the season's final month, but for now Randy Wittman seems comfortable leaning on Nene and Emeka Okafor (who needs to be in all fantasy lineups. He's still only 30 years old and is having one of the better stretches of his career).

As for the Grizzlies, it was reported on Saturday that Zach Randolph's back may be bothering him, though he dismissed concerns by saying, "I'm a tough dude, I'll be fine." Memphis went 10-7 in January, with Rudy Gay shooting very poorly and the team shadowed by trade talk, and they'll welcome a light schedule in February to regroup. The loss of Marreese Speights, Wayne Ellington and a first-round pick to Cleveland (for Jon Leuer) was lamentable...I haven't looked into it deeply enough, but presumably that cap-clearing move allowed the salaries to match in the three-team Rudy Gay deal? Otherwise, I don't understand why Memphis would have given up a capable reserve big man and a perimeter specialist (on a team in need of perimeter shooting) if they weren't going to keep Gay. The deal was a homerun for Cleveland, which gained another valuable pick while adding two capable rotation players to their watered-down reserve stock. Speights should hold late-round fantasy value in 25-30 minutes the rest of the season.

On the plus side, I think Tayshaun Prince will actually be a nice fit for Memphis. He could be the Grizzlies' second-leading scorer behind Z-Bo. It will be interesting to see how his post-heavy game (he's among the league's most efficient scorers in in the post) fits alongside Randolph and Gasol, but he can always shift more toward his above-average cuts, hand-offs and isolations. He gives the Grizzlies an upgrade defensively, also, though ironically Prince can be exploited in the post defensively, where the virtues of his length and craftiness are overshadowed by his lack of strength.

During Monday’s chat I promised that I’d include some information about remaining games and weekly schedules in this column, but I spoke too soon. Check for that next week, and in the meantime you can always scour the Season Pass for our schedule grid, Dr. A’s schedule breakdown, the Pickup of the Day, and tons more. Feel free to send me questions on Twitter @Knaus_RW. I prefer answering emails, however, as I can give more in-depth replies, so if you prefer that method you can pick my brain at KnausRotoworld@gmail.com.

Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.Email :Ryan Knaus