Israel-Syria Talks Hinge On Clinton Meeting

After months of being shoved to the side, Israel's peace talks with Syria are about to regain center stage, but senior Israeli officials say they do not know if the negotiations can be pulled out of the bog they are in.

The key for them is a meeting scheduled for Sunday in Geneva between President Clinton and President Hafez al-Assad of Syria, an encounter that has received such a buildup here that one could be forgiven an impression that the rest of Mr. Clinton's European journey is a mere cover for his appointment with the Syrian.

Israelis want Mr. Assad to give the American President "the magic word," as one official put it: a statement that he is ready to "normalize" relations with Israel in return for an Israeli withdrawal from the strategically important Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 war and virtually annexed in 1981.

If he raises the prospect of "normalization" -- defined by the Israelis as diplomatic relations, open borders and trade -- then "he will find in Israel a partner ready to do business with him," Deputy Foreign Minister Yossi Beilin said today. The tit for tat would be Israeli recognition of Syrian sovereignty over the Golan Heights, paving the way for an eventual withdrawal.

Despite more than two years of talks and occasional glimmers of hoped-for progress, the two nations have basically gone nowhere. Syria offers peace, but says it first wants Israel to commit itself to leaving the Golan, where about 13,000 Israelis live. Israel says it is prepared to pull back, at least partly, but first wants to hear what the Syrians mean by peace. They have been like that, the Alphonse and Gaston of Middle East diplomacy, for many months.

The question now is whether the equation is about to change and, if so, whether it will qualify as a breakthrough.

Some Israeli officials and academic experts see an imminent shift, arguing that Mr. Assad will not risk going to Geneva empty-handed if he wants to improve relations with the United States, especially to get Syria scratched from Washington's list of countries that sponsor terrorism.

There are other subjects likely to be taken up with Mr. Clinton, including the fate of several hundred Jews remaining in Syria, the alleged Syrian involvement in Middle East drug trafficking, Syria's links to Iran, its abetment of radical Palestinian groups and its continued purchases of advanced weapons like Scud missiles from North Korea.

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But the core issue is generally considered to be the future of the Golan, a source of much of Israel's water and a plateau that Syria had used before 1967 to shell northern Israeli settlements.

"I would guess that this is the time for Assad to say publicly, or at least to whisper in Mr. Clinton's ear, what he means by full peace," said Moshe Maoz, a Hebrew University professor who specializes in Syrian affairs.

Optimists here have been encouraged by signals like reported remarks last week by Abdel Halim Khaddam, Syria's Vice President, that "normalization" is a part of talks with Israel.

If the talks in Geneva go well, the United States is expected to announce a resumption of long-suspended peace talks in Washington on Jan. 24, not only between Israel and Syria but also between Israel and Jordan, Lebanon and the Palestinians. The Palestinian track, however, has been overtaken by the "declaration of principles" signed in September by Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, whose negotiators are still struggling to turn it into a workable agreement.

Not all Israelis are sure they will hear magic words from Geneva.

Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, normally a leading optimist, cautioned today that Mr. Assad "keeps the cards very close to his chest" and that while the meeting with Mr. Clinton "is an opportunity, it is not yet progress."

Opinion polls suggest that Israelis overwhelmingly oppose a full withdrawal from the Golan, many of them convinced that the main reason for years of quiet on the Syrian border is that fact that their tanks command the plateau, 40 miles from Damascus.

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A version of this article appears in print on January 14, 1994, on Page A00007 of the National edition with the headline: Israel-Syria Talks Hinge On Clinton Meeting. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe