If you’ve just tuned into the UFC’s regularly scheduled programming, you’re probably wondering exactly who this Jake Shields character is, and why he’s fighting for a title after but one appearance in the octagon.

You’ve been answered, of course, by promotional materials that trumpet the accomplishments that make him a threat to Georges St-Pierre’s seemingly immovable welterweight crown.

Shields has not tasted defeat in six years. He’s beaten 15 consecutive opponents, many of whom were vastly superior on paper. He’s been a champion of several promotions lapping at the UFC’s feet, including the recently acquired Strikeforce, and now he’s in the big show.

The implication juts forward: St-Pierre has to beat Shields at UFC 129 to seal the legitimacy of his title.

Then you look at your favorite sportsbook and check out the odds on the fight. They are, for the most part, 4-to-1 in favor of St-Pierre – steep indeed. If Shields is so great, why is he such a massive underdog? Are bettors completely in the dark, or do they know something that isn’t part of the PR packet?

Forget what you’re told. Shields and St-Pierre say they’re even.

The promotion has a story to sell, of course, and it’s that fans are going to see a competitive, evenly matched piece of combat.

The champion and the challenger are selling that story, but they’re giving a bit more context for why there’s going to be a fight on Saturday night. (UFC 129 takes place at Rogers Centre in Toronto, and it’s set to shatter North American attendance records for an MMA event with more than 55,000 fans in attendance.)

St-Pierre (21-2 MMA, 15-2 UFC), a native of neighboring Ontario province Quebec, hasn’t lost a round in almost three years. On the way, he’s won the welterweight title and defended it five consecutive times. Every time, he’s completely dominated his opposition: a one-sided rematch with Matt Serra, a five-round smashing of Jon Fitch; four rounds of ground and pound with B.J. Penn, takedown clinics with Thiago Alves and Dan Hardy, and a jab-fest with Josh Koscheck.

No one has come close to him since Serra put him out with a flurry of punches four years ago.

Yet Shields (26-4-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC) possesses something that makes St-Pierre believe that his sixth title fight could be the most difficult yet, and that’s a ground game a cut about just about everyone he’s faced (perhaps with the exception of Penn).

That’s why St-Pierre has followed Shields’ impressive career and favored him in fights he wasn’t supposed to win. The fact that the former Strikeforce and EliteXC champion’s resume was light on knockouts meant nothing. The submission skills were there. Line up six fighters just about anyone would say are worth their salt – Mike Pyle, Nick Thompson, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Dan Henderson and Martin Kampmann – and Shields knocked them all down.

“I knew every single time that Shields was an underdog going to fight, I knew … he was going to win,” St-Pierre said. “People, they don’t realize because you know, they see a guy get knocked out, it seems it’s very violent. A guy who’s got good submission holds is just as dangerous as a knockout punch.

“Jake Shields has a weapon that it’s even more dangerous that a knockout punch. He always finds a way to bring the fight where he is the strongest, even though the odds are all against him. That’s why this fight is the most dangerous fight for me.”

Shields buys that storyline. The way he sees it, St-Pierre has to contend with his jiu jitsu, and he with St-Pierre’s striking. Although well-known for his ability to grind down opponents with wrestling, the champion also has a penchant for taking grappling specialists such as Fitch and Koscheck where they are weaker and dominating the standup game. Like him, St-Pierre is good at bringing people where he wants them.

“One of the best strikers,” Shields said. “He’s one of the guys with very little holes in his games. Most guys you can watch them break down and you can see some big holes and figure out where to exploit them, and Georges is a guy with only a few small holes. Of course, he still does have his weaknesses.”

Yet that’s where bettors might say that St-Pierre has more places to take Shields than the other way around. That’s never a good thing for the one attempting to unseat the champ. Forget belts and win streaks and hunger – there are your 4-to-1 odds.

“It was a little surprising, but it doesn’t really bother me at all,” Shields said. “I was 4-to-1 against (Dan) Henderson. That also surprised me. You look at mine and Henderson’s record at the time, (and) we pretty much accomplished the same things. But it didn’t bother me at all.

“I don’t look at myself as an underdog going into this fight. I look at us as two guys going in even, and in my mind I’m going to go out there and win. If I was looking at it thinking, ‘I can’t beat him,’ I’d have no chance at beating him. But I don’t look at it that way.”

What do the (so-called) experts say?

The UFC asked 19 sports and media personalities to give their predictions on the fight, and they weren’t necessarily selling a competitive fight.

Twelve picked St-Pierre, and seven went for Shields. The champion retained his favorite status. But the margins did imply there is a far healthier shot of the challenger pulling off the upset – a 37 percent chance as opposed to the 20 percent implied by oddsmakers.

Still, those who picked Shields agreed that he had but one way to win the title: get the fight to the mat.

“He’s awkward to deal with, and he uses stuff that is so different to other guys that he catches opponents off guard,” UFC Hall of Famer Chuck Liddell stated. “He’s got awkward takedowns that are hard to defend. So it’s going to be an interesting fight for St-Pierre. But I do think that Jake will need to get it to the ground to win. I’m picking Jake to submit him.”

That’s not to say it would be an easy night for Shields.

“I think Georges is going to try to do what he did to Josh Koscheck and use his jab and strike from a long range, but I think at some point it will go to the ground, and Shields will win,” stated Yahoo! Sports reporter Kevin Iole.

Some say an upset is just in the air.

“Shields is the underdog, but believe me, this is the year of the underdog,” stated WBA heavyweight boxing champion David Haye. “Just like when I [knock out] Wladimir Klitschko in July, an underdog could send a stadium full of fans home very unhappy at UFC 129.”

Those for St-Pierre cited all the reasons you’d hear from MMA loyalists. The champ is just too strong, too well-rounded and just too much for a Shields who’s been fighting at a lower tier of competition.

“Some say he plays it safe, but he wins fights and dominates opponents,” the Canadian Press’ Neil Davidson stated. “Shields is tough and durable, but he does not have [St-Pierre’s] arsenal. One mistake could cost the champion, but otherwise look for a comprehensive GSP victory by decision.”

Some don’t think St-Pierre will break much of a sweat in dispatching the challenger.

“GSP will win fairly easy,” stated UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes. “I think this fight will go much the same way the GSP-Koscheck fight went. GSP is the better wrestler, the better striker, and he will be able to control and dominate wherever the fight goes. I really just don’t see any way that Shields is going to be able to win this fight.”

It will be pretty clear where the 55,000 in attendance at Rogers Centre stand. The UFC’s Canada head, Tom Wright, said tickets have been global in scope. But try telling the Canadians in the arena that St-Pierre is not the favorite, and you might have a fight on your hands.

Jose Aldo defends against local favorite Hominick

Another fighter on his hometurf is about to meet the biggest challenge of his career, but he’s had a hard time convincing anyone that he’s the favorite.

Mark Hominick (20-8 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is riding a five-fight win streak into his fight with featherweight champion Jose Aldo (18-1 MMA, 8-0 WEC), and he earned a blistering knockout in his most recent performance against sometime-training partner George Roop.

The problem is, Aldo has more blistering knockouts than he knows what to do with in a reign of terror almost three years in length. All but one of his opponents have fallen to his kicks, knees and punches since he debuted stateside in the WEC, and he’s coming off a knockout win over Manny Gamburyan in the lighter-weighted promotion that staked his claim to the UFC featherweight title when it was folded into the industry-leader.

Here’s the catch: Aldo is returning from an injury layoff due to shoulder problems and upper spine compression that led him to cancel his octagon debut in January at UFC 125.

But the Brazilian said that’s no big concern. He just needed the time to rest and recuperate, and he’s ready to perform at this best. The fact that the fight is happening in hostile territory makes no difference.

“In my mind this is just another fight,” he said through translator and manager Ed Soares. “This is my job. This is what I’ve got to do like I’ve always been doing in his career.”

Here’s the catch for Hominick: His wife is about to have a baby two days after he meets Aldo, and he has the hopes of Canada weighing on his shoulders.

“The way we’re looking at it – it’s two great things that are happening,” he said. “I’m fighting for the world title, and we’re having our first child together. It definitely brings me back to my university days. For four years, I competed in Montreal as well as going to school. Just having that structured life, there’s no down time, and every minute of every day has been important. I’m very glad I have strong family support.”

Aldo admires Hominick’s boxing ability, but that’s about it in terms of the threat the challenger presents. Hominick concurs that his best chance of winning lies with cutting angles and using superior striking to win the day.

What’s likely to happen, however, is that Aldo will soften Hominick with a few leg kicks then take him where he’s less strong – on the mat – and try to finish fast with a flurry of ground and pound. Hominick could try to catch a triangle off his back, but his best bet will be to stand up and snipe en route to a decision.

In other main-card action, UFC Hall of Famer Randy Couture (19-10 MMA, 16-7 UFC) fights what he says is his curtain call in MMA against former light-heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida (16-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC). “The Dragon” is coming off back-to-back losses to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson while Couture enjoys a three-fight streak against Brandon Vera, Mark Coleman and James Toney.

Couture has made it plain and simple: He’s going to cut Machida off, stuff him against the fence, and take the fight down to deliver some elbow sandwiches. Machida’s task will be to hit Couture with enough force early on to stop that advance and then turn up the pressure with kicks and punches. If Machida can stop Couture from the get-go, it should be his fight. If not, it could be Couture’s swan song.

Also, Jason Brilz (18-3-1 MMA, 3-2 UFC) returns to action after almost a year on the bench when he meets fellow light heavyweight Vladimir Matyushenko (25-5 MMA, 6-3 UFC), whom he was scheduled to meet this past November at UFC 122 before an injury scratched him. With both being wrestlers, this fight is likely to be decided on its feet.

Rejoice, MMA fans – all bouts from UFC 129, which has an earlier pay-per-view start time of 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT, are televised or streamed in some way or another. Two bouts – Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald and Jake Ellenberger vs. Sean Pierson – air live on Spike TV (8 p.m. ET), and the five other preliminary-card bouts stream live on Facebook.

It’s going to be a long day of fights.

MAIN CARD (PPV)

Champ Georges St-Pierre vs. Jake Shields (for welterweight title)

Champ Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick (for featherweight title)

Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Mark Bocek vs. Ben Henderson

PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)

Nate Diaz vs. Rory MacDonald

Jake Ellenberger vs. Sean Pierson

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook)

Claude Patrick vs. Daniel Roberts

Ivan Menjivar vs. Charlie Valencia

Jason MacDonald vs. Ryan Jensen

John Makdessi vs. Kyle Watson

Pablo Garza vs. Yves Jabouin

For complete coverage of UFC 129, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of MMAjunkie.com.

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