A new poll by the Becker Institute shows Shaheen (D) with a 6-point lead in the NH Senate race, 48-42 (link is a PDF). The poll has a massive +/-5% margin of error, placing the results within the margin of error (I am a broken record).

This race is effectively tied, but the poll confirms that Shaheen has the slight edge and all of the momentum heading into the campaign's stretch run. While it's too early to call this race, I'm going to do it anyway. Shaheen wins this one.

So, we've got Pryor cruising to victory in Arkansas, with victories likely from Colorado's Strickland and Shaheen. So, even if the GOP picks up Missouri and South Dakota, it will still net a one-seat loss in the Senate.

Given the imminent Dem blowout in governor elections, the real suspense will be in the US House, which should give the victorious party nothing more than a razor-thin majority.