“Bust Your Bracket”

Yay! The NCAA tournament bracket was released. That means we can spend the next couple of days fretting over who to pick. Upsets, Cinderella's, domination, everything going through your head while carefully picking each matchup. Or you just fill out a bracket in 30 seconds, breezing by, going with your gut feeling. Now, after you pick out your bracket, and feel confident heading into Thursday. Then you watch in despair as all of your elite eight teams lose. Feeling powerless, hopeless as you watch P.J Dozier continue to score bucket after bucket on Harry Giles and Duke. These upsets are common, fans are quick to choose their “upsets” and cinderellas just hours after the bracket has been announced. But you have to be careful if you pick a giant to be killed and then they go on a huge run. The people that did not have faith in teams like Gonzaga, or thought Wichita State was going to shock the Wildcats, then that could hurt. So if you are looking for upsets here are some that could possibly bust your bracket.

Wolves will dominate the league next season :eyes: :eyes:

Buffalo

Buffalo ran through the MAC, winning six straight games by double-digit points. And three of those were in the MAC tournament. They are powered by one of the best offenses in the country. Led by Wes Clark and Nick Perkins, Buffalo has four players scoring over 14 points a game, a nation high. Buffalo also has the most 80 point games in the nation with 25, that is more than offensive powerhouses in Villanova and Kansas. Nate Oats has constructed a deep bench with weapons everywhere. Buffalo earned a 13 seed mainly throughout of conference schedule, they scheduled a harder schedule than a lot of power six conferences. They went on the road and played Syracuse, played St.Bonaventure at home, as well as playing Texas A&M and Cincinnati on a neutral court. While they lost in all four of these contests they kept it close. They were well within striking distance of dethroning Cincinnati, becoming one of the only teams all year to score 65+ points on the Bearcats. These games also gave Buffalo’s RPI a big boost. At one point it was top 30 but has now settled down to around the 38 range, even then it was still impressive. This RPI also saved a lot of teams season as well, providing quad one or two wins to teams on the bubble such as Syracuse and St.Bonaventure.

In Buffalo’s path is the four seeded Arizona Wildcats. The Wildcats were a projected number one seed heading into this season. They failed to meet these expectations, they dropped three straight in the Bahamas, all to unranked teams. They were only able to climb up to a four seed after going 13-5 in the Pac-12. Arizona however, may be one of the hottest teams in the country right now. They breezed through the championship game and defeated the USC Trojans by eleven points.

Arizona’s main selling point is the unstoppable beast that is Deandre Ayton. Most teams don’t have a player that can even come close to even slowing down Ayton. Luckily Buffalo has an athletic freak of their own. Nick Perkins is built like a truck. While he is only 6’8 he is extremely strong and has above average agility. Ayton should still play well, nobody can stop him. But he should stop Ayton from going off. C.J Massenburg is also very athletic and can slow down Trier.

But the key to this game is Buffalo’s offense, has previously mentioned they have a really good offense, top ten in the nation good. Unlike previous Sean Miller teams, this Arizona team is just average on defense. When a team has a good shooting night, just like when Purdue a team with a lot of perimeter shooters, murdered Arizona. If Buffalo can catch fire and Perkins can somewhat contain Ayton, don’t be surprised if Buffalo revives its first-ever round of 32 appearances.

Davidson

Davidson is mostly remembered as the team that Steph Curry went to. There he carried a very bad Davidson team to the elite eight and took the eventual champions, Kansas Jayhawks to the very last second losing 61-60. This season Davidson has stacked its team with shooters, being one of the better shooting teams in the nation. Led by Payton Aldridge (21.5 PPG) and Kellan Grandy (18 PPG), this offense is nothing to mess around with. Davidson heading into the A-10 tournament, Davidson was not considered a tournament team. They had a modest record of 18-11 with only quad one wins to their name, home wins against St. Bonaventure and Rhode Island. As well as bad loses to the likes of Richmond, Appalachian St, Dayton, Saint Louis, and Hawaii. Despite this, they were the three seed heading into Washington D.C and the A-10 tournament. They made light work of Saint Louis defeating them by 18 and outscoring them 47-23 in the first half, Aldridge also exploded for 35 points on over 60% shooting. The next game they put their names in the bid thief conversation with a 12 point drubbing over sure-fire tournament team St.Bonaventure. The next game they played top 25 team Rhode Island, the Wildcats had all the momentum, They defeated Rhode Island the game before the conference tournament and have been rolling since. Rhode Island meanwhile, dropped two straight heading into the tournament including a 30 point home loss to below.500 St. Joes. It was back and forth game, but with 1:12 left, Kellan Grady who already had a team-high 14 points laid in what would eventually be the game-winning layup. In the ultimate bid-theft, the Davidson Wildcats managed to steal a spot from Notre Dame. Waiting for them is another Wildcats team, the 2018 SEC tournament champions, the Kentucky Wildcats.

Kentucky had sky-high expectations heading into the season, with one of the best-recruiting classes in the country they were expected to be a top ten team. They faced struggles throughout the season that did slow them down, they finished a meager 10-8 in the SEC with the on-off play of freshman Kevin Knox and Hamidou Diallo. They finally got things together heading into the SEC tournament, their defense suddenly clicked, holding Georgia to 58 points, Alabama to 63, and Tennessee to 65 as they won all three to notch the SEC tournament title. They have the length and athleticism to compete with any team.

Now looking at all these factors you would think Kentucky would have a clear advantage, however, that is not the case. Kentucky is still the youngest team in the country and is prone to make mistakes. For one the future NBA players can try to go hero ball and start jacking up three-pointers. If this happens the chemistry of this Kentucky team will seriously take a hit, which can open up defensive flaws. And if there is a team that can expose defensive flaws it is the Davidson Wildcats with their hot three-point shooting. Kentucky is prone to miss rotations and we could easily see a shootout.

Loyola Chicago

Loyola has finally built their program up to the level of a mid-major dominator. Making the tournament since 1985, behind one of the best defenses in the country. Holding opponents to less than 63 points a game. They have been able to roll through the Missouri Valley Conference now that Wichita State is gone. The Ramblers defeated Illinois State by more than ten points in the conference finals. But don’t be fooled, this is not an in-conference only team, they picked up a huge win over Florida on the road, this still stands as their only quad one win to date.

Miami, has not been as consistent. They started the year 9-0 and ranked sixth nationally, before dropping a game to New Mexico State. During ACC play they were on and off, they picked home road wins against UNC, but also had home loses to teams like Syracuse. They are led by star freshman Lonnie Walker and Julian Newton. Both of these players are very good offensive creators. They used to have Brian Bowen but due to a foot injury, he has been sidelined. This is huge for the Ramblers, with Bowen Miami was one of the top defensive teams in the country. They had guards that would pulverize you and were genuinely a top-four seed.

Now without Bowen Miami is vulnerable, their defense is not nearly as gold especially on the perimeter. The Ramblers are a very balanced team with five players averaging ten ppg or more. They have good shooting and have the ability to make it rain against a weaker defense. Miami also gets the majority of its points through its two guards. Loyola can disrupt Walker and Newton and dare others to make a play. Don’t be surprised if we see some Rambling in the south.

Murray State

Murray State has raced through the Ohio Valley conference defeating fellow mid-major dominator Belmont in the finals. Murray State has only dropped five games all season going 28-5 with four of the losses coming on the road. State leads a high powered offense team led by guard Stark who averages 21.5 ppg. This starting lineup leads a high paced, up-tempo offense that totally contradicts West Virginia’s style of play.

Led by All-Big 12 guard Jevon Carter, WVU is notorious for its tough full-court press. It is meant to wear opponent’s down and create turnovers. At times this strategy works perfectly, such as it did against Virginia earlier this year. But sometimes it can backfire, most notably when they blew a damn near 20 points half-time lead to Kansas. When WVU is hitting threes, forcing turnovers, and grabbing offensive rebounds, they can beat any team in the nation. But if they fail to make their shots or grab rebounds they are extremely vouchers.

If Murray State can avoid the press and run their offense normally they have a chance. Like mentioned previously, Murray State runs a high scoring offense, if they manage to break the press and get the ball to someone not guarded by Jevon Carter, Murray could easily score 80. While not the best defense, if they break the press Murray State should be fine. WVU gets most of its buckets on turnovers and fast breaks, with a really simple and easy to stop the half-court offensive scheme. Watch Murray State to get going and possibly stop the Mountaineers.

South Dakota State

Mike Daum is a beast. He averages 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assists on 43% three-point shooting. The last person to do that, Kevin Durant. The Summit league player of the year along with David Jenkins Jr (16 ppg) has led the Jackrabbits to a 28-6 record and an impressive 12 seed in the NCAA tournament. The third in a row for the jackrabbits and the highest a Summit League team has been in over ten years. Now, they try to break a streak just as long, winning a first-round game. Like so many possible upsets they lead a high powered offense. They rank 6th in the nation in points (84.9) as well as 25th in the nation in rebounds (39). They are battle-tested after a strong non-conference slate of Wichita State Kansas and Colorado on the road. While they did lose all three of these games, they only lost to the Boulders by nine, and the Shockers by 10. They also picked up wins against quality teams such as Buffalo, @Ole Miss, and Iowa, these aren’t the best wins but it is two power conference teams and a tournament team. They hope to pick up their best win of the season against Ohio State and Keita Bates-Diop who is just of a beast as Daum.

Big-Ten player of the year. Diop is an athletic freak, standing at 6’8 with freakish arms. He can do a lot with the ball and has powered the Buckeyes offense this season, averaging 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists. Daun vs Diop is the go-to star power matchup of the first round.

The Buckeyes have been really good this year going 28-6, and 15-3 in Big-Ten play this year. However, they have struggled the last five games. They have gone 2-3 with two of those losses coming against a non tournament team in Penn State. Their two wins? A two-point, double-overtime win against a bad Indiana team and a win over horrid Rutgers. Against Penn State, Lamar Jackson and Tony Carr gave Ohio State fits being able to shred the defense. Mike Daum and David Jenkins Jr should be able to do the same.

The key for the Jackrabbits is their defense, it is terrible this year they rank 220th in defense this season. Against Colorado they scored 103 points, to score 103 points and lose takes a special type of talent. If they can limit the offense outside of Diop and execute their offensive scheme we could see the Jackrabbits win.

New Mexico State

The Aggies are back! After falling to Baylor last season in the first round they are back for redemption, this time two seeds higher with a 28-5 record. This team had an impressive non conference slate, mainly at the Diamond Classic at Hawaii. There they notched wins over two tourney teams in Davidson, and notably Miami before falling to USC in a close one in the finals. After that they went on to destroy the WAC conference, only losing two games and easily winning the championship game.

Their opponent is the Clemson Tigers, luckily this is not football. Clemson was a legit top ten team before losing one of their better players for the season. Since then they have played a mediocre 6-4. This gets even worse when half of the wins in that stretch were to teams under .500. Marquese Reed is very talented but you have to wonder if he can carry a team all by himself. Clemson has not had the same offensive firepower or the same defensive grind over the last ten games.

Zach Lofton on New Mexico State has shown the ability to go off on the top stages. The graduate transfer who is on his fourth team averages 20 ppg and is capable of taking over a game and if he does Clemson is in deep trouble.

Stephen F Austin

The Lumberjacks are no stranger to Cinderella stories, in 2015-2016 they knocked off three-seed West Virginia in the first round as well as pushing Notre Dame to its limits. In a strange but deep lineup, Austin plays only two players more than 25 mpg and no more than 27.8 mpg, but nine players play at least 20 minutes a game, weird. This might be due to the tiring style of play they possess, they go full-court press, resulting in a lot of turnovers. Austin is top five in the nation in turnovers forced. Seven players on the team, average at least one steal a game and another averaging 0.9. Austin, unlike most upset picks, were not conference dominators. They finished third in the Southland League with a 14-4 conference record and 28-6 overall record. Out of conference two games come to note, for starters they managed to beat Louisiana State on the road, now LSU is not a tournament team but still was a dangerous team with high quality wins and was able to make the N.I.T. The next game they came this close to beating Missouri on the road falling 82-81. They came all the way back from an eight-point halftime deficit but in the end, came short.

Texas Tech comes into this game battered. They come to the seasons end losing 5 of their last 7. Part of this is injuries, Kenan Smith one of the best point guards in the country has missed time as well as Zach Smith. This offense is led by Keenan Evans, his style of play is both good and bad in this matchup. Keenan Evans got to the line a lot, which can be key to breaking down this Lumberjack defense. Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, he does turn the ball over quite a bit, averaging about one and a half assists per turnover. If Austin somehow manages to stop Evans they should be in the clear. Both Culver and Smith are decent scorers but outside of that, this team does not have any formidable scoring options. Stephen Bogues and Kevin Harris can both put the ball in the basket.

Charleston

Charleston and Auburn are in a pace deadlock. Charleston plays in one of the slowest paces in the country, while Auburn plays one of the fastest in the country. Whoever controls the pace should have the edge.

Charleston dominated the CAA with a 14-4 record, and rolled to the tournament. Grant Riller, Joe Chealey, and Jarrell Brantley combine for 53 points one of the best trios in the country. Outside of that, the team barely averages 20 points a game. Charleston does not have any good wins or good metrics but they seem to have a playstyle to counter Auburns. They are also extremely hot only losing three since the new year and one since January 18th. Auburn, on the other hand, is struggling. They have lost three of their last four and four of their last six, including an ugly loss to South Carolina. Ever since McLemore went down they have not been the same team.

Of course we should not ignore the team that played the first 26 games of the season, they went 23-3 with a road win over Tennessee and was a projected one seed. They are still very good and are capable of defeating anybody. If Charleston’s big three can play their game and their supporting cast steps up we could see Charleston get their first tournament game this decade.

It’s that time of year, teams will bust your bracket and your hopes. Now, will all of these first-round upsets happen, HELL NO! But these have the highest chance of happening. It should be a crazy March, buckle up were just getting started!