Site Improvements

This site is now about six weeks old and, like a six-week old, continues to grow. We've already made several, behind-the-scenes improvements in response to your feedback. Now it's time to make a few more.

As you know, this site is no longer about me...it's about you. For some reason, people take an interest in what I have to say about the PMs so I continue to write the main blog. The site as a whole, however, is about and for you. The forums, the chatroom, the charts...all are there for your education and the assistance you can provide others. The site costs quite a bit of money to maintain and the servers required to keep it running smoothly ain't cheap, either. Therefore, we have advertisements and, soon, affiliate sponsors.

Also, prior to building the site, I asked for feedback as to what features you'd like to see included. Two of the most common responses that we were unable to incorporate immediately were private messaging between members and an "ignore user" feature. I'd like to implement these features now. It comes with a catch, however. I'd like you, the user, to share in the cost. If adding private messaging and/or ignore features would be useful to you, please help defray the cost by "feeding the turd". Every little bit helps and once I get about half of the cost covered, I'll proceed with the additions. I'll keep you posted on the results of this first-ever "turdathon".

OK, back to your regularly scheduled blog. The PMs are kickin booty this morning as the nonsense continues in DC. There is a general "risk-off" feeling today as everything else is down. This may keep the metals from soaring but it should not be enough to inspire a protracted raid, either. For now, I'd love to just simply get through this day with these gains intact. A gold close above 1625 would set up another leg higher, toward the 1640-45 area. Similarly, a silver close above $41 primes a run toward 42-42.50.

It's just a hunch but I can sure see all of this coming together at about the same time. By tomorrow, the POSX begins dropping again and the PMs rally further. By Thursday or Friday, at about the time gold nears 1645-50 and silver is pushing 42.50, the POSX may be making new lows near or below 73.30 on the September contract. Then the news will hit. The grand compromise will be reached. The country will be saved. Economic nirvana will prevail. All will be well. For about a day. Then, reality will sink in. From where will all this new debt come? Hmmm? The metals will reverse and we'll be back to business as usual.

After a valiant fight, the metals finally succumbed to the short-covering rally in the dollar. Gold dipped as low as 1608.90 (remember that initial support is around 1610) before recovering slightly. Silver fell in tandem but has maintained above $40. Holding support, both technical and psychological, is very important. I'd expect the dollar rally to soon end as the "real world" re-asserts itself overnight. This should lead to a rebound in the PMs overnight and into tomorrow. Again, WHEN some type of deal is announced from DC, EXPECT the PMs to drop sharply. I'll be buying this dip. Within 24 hours (or maybe considerably less), rational minds will realize that the U.S. is again allowing itself to go even deeper into debt. These rational minds will stop the selling and the PMs will reverse.

On more thing on today's trade. Last night, Harvey again posted a note from Dave in Denver. With the benefit of hindsight, this proves quite accurate. Definitely worth considering and a good thing to file away for the next option expiry cycle:

"One quick technical point about the gold market. As of this morning there were about 18,900 open calls at 1600 that expire today on Comex gold futures. Historically, the big bank manipulators write those calls and then drive the market below the price point at which they've written calls in order to keep the premiums. It's not huge money but it's been easy money for them over the last 10 years. Today obviously those calls expired in the money by about $17, which means the holders of those calls will likely exercise their option and take delivery of futures contract. A few months ago this same situation occurred and the manipulators hammered the silver market the day after expiration, likely creating a large number of sellers out of the traders who had taken delivery of their profit-position silver futures. It was a very transparent manipulative move, but effective nonetheless. IF we don't see the manipulators successfully "run the stops" tomorrow or Wed, my bet is that we will likely see $1650 gold very quickly, as this will be a very bullish signal that the gold cartel is losing its ability to manipulate the market at will."

Lastly, the Technical Team here at TFM wanted me to point out a couple of improvements we've already made, just in case they've gone unnoticed. Here is a c&p from them:

Based on your suggestions, we adjusted the Recent Comments page (https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comments/recent) so you can use it as a "dashboard" for reviewing all comments across the site. You can sort by newest or oldest first. You can choose a start date for comments. You can also filter by username and title of the forum topic or blog post. To quickly access the latest comments, click on the Comments link in the navigation bar.

With the charades going on in Washington, it's no wonder the US dollar index is as weak as it is. It bounced at 73.50 and I expect it to stay between there and 74 for a couple of days before it continues to test 73 and thereafter 72.70-72.80. This analysis doesn't take a short relief rally (if the US Congress agrees to raise the debt ceiling) into consideration.

It looks more and more like the gold stocks are putting in a H&S bottom against gold to hopefully greatly outperform the latter once they have broken out of the formation. The second half of August seems like the right timing, not just from admiring the chart but also from a seasonal point of view.

Turd, you made some typoes, you're using $15 when the gold price is $16.

Second, I had a suggestion for additional site improvement - put a "newest comment" link in each blogpost to reduce the number of clicks we need to get to the most recent comment. Right now we need to click on the blogpost, wait for it load, scroll to the bottom, and then click on the last page for comments. I come here for both your posts and the commentary and would like a way to immediately jump to the most recent comment.

Here's a 3-paragraph quote from Bill Buckler's bi-weekly publication The Privateer that was sent out to subscribers early on Sunday...and there are few that can cut to the chase as quickly as Mr. Buckler...

"The fuel to keep the global financial system functioning does not stop at the borders of the US. The “Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act” has just produced the first ever “audit” of the US central bank. It reveals that in the period between December 2007 and July 2010, the Fed parceled out $US 16.1 TRILLION in emergency loans to financial entities all over the world. Almost half of this - a total of $US 7.75 TRILLION - was loaned to four US banks. They were Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and the Bank of America. In July 2010 [the cut off date for this “audit”], total US stock market capitalisation was $US 15 TRILLION. The Fed provided about half of that.

"This inflationary explosion is unprecedented in any era. It represents the biggest ever effort to rescue a debt-based system from the ravages caused by its own debt issuing excesses. It has, at best, provided a “remission” for global paper markets. The cost has been devastating for REAL economies everywhere.

"A cancer patient who goes under the knife gets the malignant disease physically removed. If all traces of the malignancy are removed, the patient will recover. If all goes well, the recovery will be permanent with no “remissions”. A life-threatening malignancy is NOT fought or cured by doing everything possible to increase its power and potency. Yet that is what financial authorities in the US and everywhere else have been doing in regard to the life blood of their economies. As this stark fact becomes ever clearer, Washington DC and Wall Street stand helpless before the fact that they can only cure the economy at the cost of killing the financial system which is feeding on it. It’s THAT simple. - Bill Buckler...ThePrivateer...July 24, 2011

Looks like the MSM has done well in funneling everyone into paper gold and diverting them from silver. Plenty of weak hands in now primed and ready to get shaken out. They need to do something big to scare the herd off if they're ever gonna get gold under control. I think a raid on gold would have a much better impact on both gold and silver then their usual silver takedown to control gold.

Several of us have been parroting this for a while now. The new director of the HKMex is the former director of the NYMex and sits on the Fed board. I believe my quote was "Same shit different continent."

I'd like to think privacy had a little bit to do with it. I only have experience building and running a Simple Machines Forum but the coding is wonkish and the security is pretty piss poor. Very easy for a SMF site owner to harvest all their members' passwords and emails and PMs (Private messages in this case) are not secure. This is all speculation though, I have no idea why turd built this whole new site from scratch, but I like it.

I am buying the miners. Why? Because no one wants them. I do because I can see the USD and Gold going up. Yes like the yen it's a POS. But even Jim Rogers thinks it's way oversold at this point some day fundamentals will rule.

Gold and the USD as strange as it sounds could both work. But I am a gold bug at heart.

i just hit a little over a double on pcfg and unloaded half my position. pcfg is a penny stock with some of the earmarks of a pump and dump operation. i like having my original stake back. cost averaging the shares i kept works out to zero. i like that, no way i can do worse than break even. pump away me hearties! swash that buckle!

Ignore your miners G, the chemo takes a while to reverse the cancer, and as my old boss used to say," the beatings will continue till morale increases". kachingo time for sept dec ag calls, I hope Lowes still get wheel barrows.

DISCLAIMER: The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes. Trade at your own risk. The Turd provides knowledge not direction. Turd holds no liability for your trades and decisions but he's happy to take credit when credit is due, particularly through the "donate" button. Read more...