Political commentary and analysis from conservative pundit, John LeBoutillier, the former U.S. Congressman and author of Harvard Hates America.

1.) President Hosni Mubarak is a goner. The only question is: does he leave on a private jet to enjoy the American aid money he undoubtedly squirreled away overseas for his private use—or does he try to hang on and thus leave in a body bag?

2.) Who and what comes next? Do the radicals—i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood—use this opportunity to seize power in the next national elections? (And, if they do gain power, do they then cancel/rig future elections so as to keep power?)

3.) Will Jimmy Carter and other like-minded types come into Egypt to certify that the next national elections are “honest”?

4.) Does the post-Mubarak Egyptian government honor the 30-year old Camp David Accords and thus continue to collect billions in aid from DC?

5.) Does this anti-government fervor spread to Jordan? To Saudi Arabia? To Syria? To Yemen? And what of the ongoing revolt in Tunisia?

6.) What does this portend for Israel? Are they militarily prepared to once again be surrounded by hostile Arab neighbors—with the militant Tehran regime fueling the fires of anti-Israel sentiment?

7.) In DC, does the Obama Administration have a handle of the Arab and Muslim world possibly crumbling in front of our eyes? Does Obama have a clear-cut American strategy? Does anyone believe that Obama and Hillary really know what they are doing in foreign policy?

8.) Can this anti-establishment fervor in the Arab world possibly topple the nuclear-armed government of Pakistan? Or is this a country-by-country phenomenon?

9.) What does this ongoing ferment do to the terrorist element inside Islam? Does it embolden them? Does it unleash more acts of terror?

10.) Or is this primarily a middle class revolt over horrid economic conditions and poverty for so many Arab youth?

11.) What can new Egyptian leaders do to alleviate the rotten economic conditions in the world’s biggest Arab nation? Yes, they can eliminate official corruption which is tolerated when the economy works reasonably well but is blamed when the economy falters. But what to do to get millions of Egyptians back to work? (What a task facing the next government!)

12.) A year from now what will the Arab world look like? More—or less—peaceful? Are we about to see a more secular, economics-driven Arab ruling mentality? Or are we going to see them retreat from modernity into Islamic fundamentalism, which doesn’t pay the bills but surely causes a lot of trouble?

Listen to Bynon/LeBoutillier—live—on Saturday, January 29th from 4-5 pm on 77 WABC radio in New York City—or listen on the web at www.wabcradio.com, as we discuss the radicalization of Islam in the United States. Are radical muslims hijacking the American political system to use against us the same way they hijacked four jets and turned them into bombs against us on 9/11?

As has been forecast in this space before, the looming GOP Establishment vs. Tea Party movement conflict over how much and how fast to cut federal spending is going to rip the conservative movement apart.

And that day is fast approaching – probably keyed to the debt ceiling vote in February or March.

Here is where we are:

A.) John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan know theymust do some heavy cutting. They pledged during the 2010 campaign to cut $100 billion in the coming fiscal year budget; but they have since revised that down to $50 billion.

B.) But the Tea Party people—including South Carolina Senator Jim Demint—have suddenly thrown out new and staggeringly enormous numbers that they say must be cut. The number they are bandying about is $2.5 trillion over the next several years.

Plus other self-elected Tea Party people have cropped up on TV this week with all sorts of strong demands for major—and immediate—federal cuts. And they’re threatening those GOP Establishment leaders by name that if these massive federal cuts are not made now, then in 2012 more new Tea Party GOP members will be elected and will “replace Boehner and the rest.”

C.) What the Tea Party people are not yet doing is specifying the cuts they want. Where are we to make these massive cuts? Who is getting cut? What are the economic ramifications of these cuts during a time of sluggish economic growth and huge underemployment?

OK. We know that we need to shrink the size and scope of the federal government. But 85% of the federal budget—other than the interest payment on the national debt—is spent on three things: the Pentagon, Social Security and Medicare.

Is this where Demint and the Tea Party want to cut? And if so, how and when?

And how about this: it took 30-40 years to grow the federal government into this over-spending behemoth. Isn’t it going to take a period of several years—perhaps decades—to draw it back down?

Shouldn’t we create a plan to pay off the national debt over a thirty year period—year by year—until we are back at a truly balanced federal budget?

Isn’t that the better way to go—rather than taking a meat clever to this monster at a time of almost-anemic federal growth?

Look for Paul Ryan—the new Chairman of the Appropriations Committee—to be the key player here. He is giving the GOP response to the President’s State of the Union on Tuesday night.

Ryan must soon present a plan—with specific budget cuts—that satisfies both his fellow GOP leaders but also the Tea Party people. If he can, then the Train Wreck can be avoided.

But if he cannot, then the Debt Ceiling Vote will be a watershed in the conservative movement. The Train Wreck will rip the movement—and the GOP-Tea Party Alliance—apart over the very thing that originally created the conservative movement: the size and role of government in our lives.

The Left’s immediate, knee-jerk reaction–led by the outrageously political statement by the sheriff of Pima County blaming this shooting on the political dialogue in our country—has been to somehow conflagrate the traditionally anti-Big Government philosophy of the talk radio community and the Tea Party Movement into being co-conspirators in this heinous crime.

We didn’t hear the same left-wing nonsense when another mentally deranged nutcase–John Hinckley—tried to kill President Reagan.

Was that crime because of all the liberal, anti-Reagan demonstrations over the Reagan budget cuts and defense build-up?

No, of course not.

John Hinckley, like Jared Loughner, was sick. Period. And his sickness was not anyone else’s fault. (Except perhaps triggered by the use of illegal drugs that can release/cause/contribute to a range of mental afflictions including paranoia, schizophrenia and anti-social disorders. But the Left won’t want to talk about their glorification of pot, LSD and other illegal drugs in movies and Hollywood etc…)

We cannot use logic, reason and rational thinking to analyze the actions of one crazed, mentally unstable person.

The alleged Tucson killer, Loughner, was–by all reports–off his rocker for the past several years. Reading his posted MySpace comments shows a delusional, ill-educated, ignorant, sick man. Associates and college classmates now say they knew years ago he was crazy. But what does that have to do with talk radio? Or the Tea Party?

No, this is the Left seizing this disaster to go after the Right–the very week they saw their Pelosi-led control of the House and the Congressional agenda switch to the GOP-including the talk radio community which is strongly against bigger government and gun control.

Shame on them!

No one in the Tea Party Movement or on talk radio advocates violence. Instead, they are leading the difficult campaign to shrink government. Period.

The so-called mainstream media who participate in this blame-the-right campaign are a disgrace. But those who present all sides fairly are to be congratulated.

Let us pray for the Congresswoman and her family and for the other wounded survivors and the families of the other deceased victims.

And let us pray for our country to see this for what it was: the actions of one crazed mentally-ill young man.

• By the end of the year, the unemployment rate will still be unacceptably too high–in the 8 - 8.5% range. And that will turn the country even more sour about the economy, the future and the 2012 elections.

• Articles will appear asking this question: has any incumbent president ever been re-elected with unemployment north of 7% or 8%?

• While President Obama will not have a Democratic Party challenger, he will be viewed as beatable in November 2012. The Upper Mid-West–from Ohio to Minnesota–all states he won in 2008–will now be against him and his Electoral College math will be difficult.

• Both parties are going to be viewed negatively by the end of 2011 precisely because the economy continues to flounder.

• GOP control of the House will cause a split inside the Republicans between Tea Party conservatives who want to address the National Debt and regular Republicans who want to cut more taxes to stimulate the economy.

• Sarah Palin will continue to dominate the talk of the GOP race for the presidential nomination. She will continue to prevent any other new “star” to emerge from the pack.

• By the end of 2011 no Republican will have emerged as the favorite for the GOP presidential nomination. Sarah Palin will still the most talked-about Republican candidate. She will have catchy one-liners at the TV debates which begin in June. There will be eight white guys—and Palin—up on the stage—and she will dominate the news of these debates.

• Instead, there will—again—be a flavor du jour—a new, hot, favorite candidate, each of whom lasts for a week or two only to fade and be replaced by the next faddish wave.

• A Big Fight will be over the extension of the Debt Ceiling. This has to be voted on by the House and Senate. The establishment is already saying to the new Tea Party elected conservatives, “You have to vote to extend the debt ceiling!” And these Tea Party-backed new Senators and Congressmen are replying, “I did NOT come here to run up more debt!!!” So look out for an explosion over this by spring.

• Cathleen Parker doesn’t make it to March 1 on CNN’s Parker/Spitzer. And the show itself–so dreadful you cannot watch it–doesn’t last past May 1. And if it does last longer it is only because everything on that network is unwatchable.

• The Big Scandal–written about in this space a few years ago–is still simmering. This is a scandal bigger than Watergate. It envelopes both major political parties. There will be progress in 2011 in blowing this open. And if it does blow, it will severely alter the 2012 presidential race.

John LeBoutillier is a former U.S. congressman and a nationally recognized political commentator. LeBoutillier has been a prolific writer and he has contributed to many major newspapers and magazines. In 1980, LeBoutillier was elected to represent New York's 6th District becoming the youngest member of the 97th Congress. He also has been a frequent commentator, host and guest of many media programs. more about John...email John