Interim UFC Featherweight Championship

THE MATCHUP: Though the circumstances surrounding
it are a little fishy, the fact that this is now an interim title
fight means that either Pettis or Holloway will go on to fight
Jose
Aldo. That alone makes this bout worthwhile. That it also
happens to be a fantastic matchup is just the interim icing on the
cake. Not only is it stylistically fascinating, with the aimless
sharpshooter Pettis taking on the high-output Holloway, but it
offers juicy narrative, as well. Can Pettis get back on track to a
fight he asked for years ago, or will the consistently superb
prospect finally get a crack at the throne?

I have gone back and forth in evaluating Pettis’ featherweight
debut against Charles
Oliveira. The fight was close. Pettis was still too easy to
back into the fence and tie up, shortening the amount of time he
had to figure out things in his most effective range; and Pettis
seemed to gas pretty quickly. Then again, he may have been a little
eager for a knockout after three straight losses and simply poured
out too much energy in the first round. So maybe the weight cut was
not a problem, and if it was, maybe it will not be this time.
Pettis was on point with his countering and better equipped to deal
with the kind of aggressive opponent that had troubled him in the
past.

The final thing to take away from that Oliveira fight is a Pettis
quality that is rarely discussed: He is teak-tough. Pettis has
never been knocked out in nearly 10 years of professional fighting.
Rarely has he even been staggered, despite absorbing clean strikes
from some of the lightweight division’s most dangerous strikers,
like Edson
Barboza, Rafael dos
Anjos and Jeremy
Stephens. That mental and physical durability is a powerful
ally for a powerful finisher. For all of his strategic flaws,
Pettis is a phenomenal finisher. Sixteen of his 19 wins have come
via knockout or submission; and a granite chin means “Showtime” can
stay in the fight longer than most. Pettis’ left leg is a sniper
rifle, and no amount of jostling can knock it off its target.

Holloway is a finisher, too, but it is attrition more than sheer
timing and power that bring his fights to an end. When he faces men
that do not usually get knocked out, he does not knock them out.
Which means he will likely have to spend five rounds controlling
and outmaneuvering Pettis, even if Pettis is really only fresh for
two of them. Fortunately for Holloway, he is not Charles
Oliveira -- a fact he pointedly demonstrated when he stopped
Oliveira in one round last year. Where Oliveira is slow on his feet
and doggedly committed to coming forward, Holloway is equally
skilled moving in all directions. He can box; he can counter; he
can pressure; and when he feels like it, he can brawl.

Strategically, Holloway is well-equipped to outwork another
striker. On average, “Blessed” throws 13.05 significant strikes per
minute, landing 5.61. That represents a rate of nearly 200
attempted strikes per 15 minutes. Pettis, for comparison, lands
only 2.54 of the approximately 5.91 strikes he throws every minute.
His average per 15-minute fight is less than half of Holloway’s
output.

Both men are opportunistic submission artists, but there is little
chance that this fight will play out on the ground. Neither man has
a habit of shooting for takedowns, while both men are difficult to
get off-balance. Unless it happens in a wild scramble after a
knockdown, neither man will end this fight by submission.

THE ODDS: Holloway (-195), Pettis (+165)

THE PICK: Pettis may have lost some of his shine
after a trio of defeats and the loss of his belt, but he is
essentially still the same fighter that won the title, for better
and for worse. Opponents have figured out the technical and
strategic weaknesses in Pettis’ game -- his limited footwork, his
single-layered defense and his willingness to wait for the perfect
shot -- and that means he will be constantly fighting
tooth-and-nail, barring some dramatic evolution on his part. No
one, however, has taken away Pettis’ durability and killer
instinct. He will pose a threat to Holloway for every one of the 25
minutes he is given. Fortunately for the Hawaiian, he is also a
very durable fighter and his style gives him the advantage of the
averages. The pick is Holloway by unanimous decision.