United States Housing Market Q4, 2010 Transcript of the Quarterly assessment of Market Conditions. This is a summary useful in establishing statistical trend lines, variance analysis and the identification of outliers in certain sectors of the United States overall Market. The USHMCR Is an extremely valuable tool in first level problem recognition and identification to demographic and expected forecast conditions. The Data is most useful in targeted assessments of markets which fall outside or well outside statistical parameters given the same variables in similar markets. I plan on using this for supporting initial evidence for the need of Custodial Administration of the City of Erie by Harrisburg to investigate, prosecute and imprison the Persons within the City of Erie who have a) used non-profit organizations as a means of widespread cooperatives musing public and Grant Funds. b) The Deliberate and intentional, in consent of multiple Authorities; abuses of Power in the form of Falsifying information to obtain Grant Funds misapropriated and allocated to Authorities and bodies c) The Obstruction of Justice, Conspiracy to Commit and the Committing of Specified Hate Crimes against a targeted Minority; abuse and derelection of Judicial Power in the 'Outsourcing' of District Judge Responsibilities d) The deliberate falsification of and illegal writing, changing and in consent; violating State and Federal Mandates whilst failing to comply with, and obstruct Justice against a Targeted and known protected Minority Group. d) Widespread bribery, extortion and fear tactics employed by City Authorities, particularly in regards to City Zoning Procedures, Adherence to State and Federal Statutes, Accepting of Bribes from known and deemed 'Persons of Bad Moral Character'.

Transcript of "USHMCR 4Q, 2010 summary"

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4th Quarter 2010 February 2011Summary Housing ProductionHousing data for the fourth quarter of 2010 indicatedthat the recovery in the housing market continues to Housing production indicators were mixed in the fourthremain fragile. In the production sector, single-family quarter of 2010. The number of single-family housinghousing permits increased and starts remained steady, permits rose and starts remained steady, but comple-although completions fell. Multifamily housing permits, tions fell. In the multifamily sector (apartments andstarts, and completions all fell, although permits and condominiums), the number of permits, starts, andcompletions were down only slightly. In the marketing completions all fell, although the decline in permitssector, sales of both new and existing homes rose, while and completions was small. Shipments of manufacturedmedian sales prices for new homes remained steady and housing dropped in the fourth quarter.those for existing homes fell slightly from year-earlier ■ Builders took out permits for new housing at a pacelevels. The Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller® national of 574,000 (SAAR) units during the fourth quarter,seasonally adjusted (SA) repeat-sales house-price index, which was 3 percent higher than the previous quarterwhich is reported with a lag, recorded a 3.4-percent but 8 percent lower than a year earlier. Single-familydecline in the value of homes in the third quarter of building permits were issued for 421,000 (SAAR)2010, after having increased 2.6 percent in the second housing units, an increase of 4 percent from the thirdquarter, and a 1.6-percent decline over year-earlier levels. quarter but a decrease of 14 percent from year-earlierThe less volatile Federal Housing Finance Agency’s levels. Single-family permits have increased in 5 of(FHFA) purchase-only repeat-sales index, also reported the last 7 quarters, after having declined for 14 con-on a lagged basis, estimated a 1.6-percent (SA) decrease secutive quarters, ending the second quarter of 2009.in home values in the third quarter compared with thesecond quarter and a 3.2-percent decline from year-earlier ■ During the fourth quarter, builders started construc-levels. Inventories of available homes at the current tion on 538,000 new housing units (SAAR), downsales rate decreased in the fourth quarter of 2010, reaching 8 percent from the third quarter and 5 percent froman average rate of 8.0 months’ supply of new homes a year earlier. Single-family housing starts totaledand 9.4 months’ supply of existing homes, down from 436,000 (SAAR) housing units, virtually unchangedrates of 8.5 and 11.7 months’ supply, respectively, inthe previous quarter.The national homeownership rate declined in thefourth quarter of 2010, as did the homeownership rate I n s i d efor minorities. According to the Mortgage BankersAssociation (MBA), the percentage of delinquencies for Contents ................................... 2mortgage loans fell in the third quarter, while newlyinitiated foreclosures increased (the data are reported 2010 Annual Data ................... 5with a 2-month lag). The percentage of newly initiatedforeclosures rose for both prime and subprime loans. The What Do We Know Aboutadvance estimate of overall real growth in the national Single-Family Rentaleconomy for the fourth quarter was a 3.2-percent increaseat a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following Properties? ................................ 6a 2.6-percent expansion in the third quarter, accordingto the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Residential invest- National Data ......................... 17ment increased by 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter Regional Activity ................... 33compared with a decline of 27.3 percent in the thirdquarter of 2010. Historical Data ....................... 68 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research

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from the third quarter but down 11 percent from ■ The median price of new homes sold in the fourth year-earlier levels. Single-family starts have risen quarter was $219,800, down 2 percent from the or remained steady in 4 of the last 7 quarters, after previous quarter and virtually the same over the having fallen for 12 consecutive quarters, ending previous four quarters. The average price of new the second of 2009. Builders completed 583,000 homes sold was $272,400, up 2 percent from the (SAAR) new housing units in the fourth quarter, previous quarter and nearly the same as a year ear- down 4 percent from the third quarter and 26 percent lier. A constant-quality house would have sold for over the four-quarter period. Single-family home $282,000, up 1 percent from the previous quarter completions totaled 461,000 (SAAR) units, down but down 1 percent from a year earlier. 4 percent from the previous quarter and 13 percent from a year earlier. Completions have increased in ■ NAR reported that the median price of existing 2 of the last 5 quarters, after having declined for homes sold was $169,800 in the fourth quarter, down 14 consecutive quarters, ending the fourth quarter 4 percent from the third quarter and 1 percent from of 2009. a year earlier. The average price of existing homes sold in the fourth quarter was $218,000, 3 percent■ Manufactured housing shipments totaled 42,000 lower than the previous quarter but 1 percent higher (SAAR) units in the fourth quarter, down 15 percent than the fourth quarter of 2009. According to a NAR from the third quarter and 14 percent over the four- practitioner survey, distressed sales (foreclosures quarter period. Onsite placements of manufactured and short sales) represented 34 percent of all home housing, which are reported with a lag, reached sales in the fourth quarter, the same as in the third 49,000 units in the third quarter, down 15 percent quarter. Distressed sales prices are typically 15 to from the previous quarter but up 3 percent from 20 percent below normal market prices. a year earlier. Manufactured housing shipments have increased in 2 of the last 4 quarters, following ■ S&P/Case-Shiller® and the FHFA both produce a downward trend that began after the hurricane- repeat-sales house price indices that are reported induced sales-order increases of late 2005. with a 2-month lag. The Case-Shiller® national index estimated that (SA) home prices in the third quarter of 2010 were down 3.5 percent from theMarketing of Housing previous quarter and 1.6 percent from a year earlier. The FHFA purchase-only national index estimatedData on the housing marketing sector improved in the that (SA) home prices in the third quarter werefourth quarter of 2010. The number of both new and down 1.6 percent from the previous quarter andexisting homes sold rose, while the median sales prices 3.2 percent from a year earlier. The FHFA index isof new homes was unchanged and those of existing homes based on sales financed with mortgages that havesold fell slightly from a year ago. The S&P Case-Shiller® been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae andand FHFA repeat sales house price indices, which are Freddie Mac and tends to show less volatility thanreported with a lag, estimated that house prices were the S&P Case-Shiller® index. The lower volatilitydown in the third quarter from both the second quarter occurs mainly because the FHFA index excludesof 2010 and the third quarter of 2009. The average sales transactions associated with subprime andmonths’ supply of homes for sale in the fourth quarter some “jumbo” loans and because it is transactionfell for both new and existing homes. Home builders’ weighted instead of value weighted.confidence, as measured by the National Association ■ During the fourth quarter of 2010, the averageof Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market inventory of new homes for sale was 195,000 units,Index, increased in the fourth quarter. down 5 percent from the third quarter and 17 percent■ During the fourth quarter of 2010, 296,000 (SAAR) from a year earlier. That inventory would support new single-family homes were sold, up 2 percent 8.0 months of sales at the current sales pace, down from the 291,000 (SAAR) homes sold in the third 0.5 month from the third quarter but up 0.4 month quarter but down 21 percent from a year earlier. from a year earlier. The average inventory of existing homes for sale in the fourth quarter was 3.713 million■ The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® units, down 8 percent from the third quarter but up (NAR) reported that 4.803 million (SAAR) exist- 7 percent over the four-quarter period. That inventory ing homes—including single-family, townhomes, would support 9.4 months of sales at the current condominiums, and cooperatives—were sold in sales pace, down 2.3 months from the third quarter the fourth quarter, up 15 percent from the previous but up 2.4 months from a year earlier. Of concern is quarter but down 20 percent from year-earlier lev- the “shadow inventory” of homes as a result of the els. According to a NAR practitioner survey, sales high rate of delinquencies and foreclosures, which to first-time homebuyers accounted for 32 percent has the potential to increase the supply of homes of all home sales transactions in the fourth quarter, for sale and further depress home prices. down from 34 percent in the previous quarter. 3 Summary

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■ The Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA) share during the third quarter of 2010. These delinquency of the mortgage market, which is reported with a rates decreased for prime, subprime, and FHA loans. 2-month lag, increased only for refinance loans in The percentage of mortgage holders seriously delinquent the third quarter of 2010. Based on loan origination on their mortgages (90 or more days past due or in the data, the FHA’s dollar volume share of the mortgage foreclosure process) fell for the third consecutive quarter; market was 16.8 percent, down from 19.0 percent in the rate had been rising since the third quarter of 2006. the second quarter and 18.2 percent a year earlier. The percentage of newly initiated foreclosures (foreclo- For home purchase loans, the FHA’s dollar volume sure starts), in contrast, increased for prime, subprime, share was 35.3 percent, down from 36.5 percent in and FHA loans. the second quarter and 26.0 percent a year earlier. For refinance loans, the FHA’s dollar volume share According to the MBA, the (SA) delinquency rate for was 10.4 percent in the third quarter, up 7.3 percent all mortgage loans in the third quarter of 2010 was 9.13 from the previous quarter but down from 12.3 percent percent, down from 9.85 percent in the second quarter a year earlier. Based on the number of loans origi- and 9.64 percent a year earlier. The (SA) delinquency nated, the FHA’s share of the mortgage market was rate for prime mortgages was 6.29 percent in the third 19.2 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 22.7 quarter, down from 7.10 percent in the second quarter percent in the previous quarter and 21.6 percent a year and 6.84 percent a year earlier. The (SA) delinquency earlier. For home purchase loans, the FHA’s share of rate for subprime mortgage loans was 26.23 percent the number of new mortgage loans was 40.9 percent, in the third quarter, down from 27.02 percent in the down from 42.4 percent in the previous quarter but second quarter and 26.42 percent a year earlier. For up from 30.3 percent a year earlier. The FHA’s share FHA loans in the MBA survey, the (SA) delinquency of the number of new refinance loans was 11.1 percent rate was 12.62 percent in the third quarter, down from in the third quarter, up from 8.4 percent in the previ- 13.29 percent in the second quarter and 14.36 percent ous quarter but down from 14.5 percent a year earlier. a year earlier.■ Home builders’ optimism rose in the fourth quarter Newly initiated foreclosures represented 1.34 percent of all of 2010. The NAHB/Wells Fargo composite Hous- mortgage loans in the third quarter, up from 1.11 percent ing Market Index was 16, up 3 points from the third in the second quarter but down from 1.42 percent a year quarter but down 1 point from a year earlier. The earlier. The rate of newly initiated foreclosures on prime index for expected future sales increased from 19 to loans was 1.12 percent in the third quarter, up from 24 points. The composite index is based on three 0.91 percent in the second quarter but down from 1.14 components—current market activity, future sales percent a year earlier. Foreclosures started on subprime expectations, and prospective buyer traffic—and loans rose to 3.31, after having fallen for five consecu- ranges from 0 to 100. tive quarters. Newly initiated foreclosures on subprime loans were up from 2.83 percent in the second quarter but down from 3.76 percent a year earlier. Not all newlyAffordability, Homeownership, initiated foreclosures end in foreclosure completions. Before the recent slowdown in the processing of fore-and Foreclosures closures, approximately 52 percent of newly initiated foreclosures were completed 6 months later, whichHousing affordability, as measured by the NAR Housing was the approximate average length of time forAffordability Index, increased in the fourth quarter of processing foreclosures.2010. The NAR composite index estimates that a familyearning the median income had 185.0 percent of the The national homeownership rate was 66.5 percent inincome needed to purchase a median-priced, existing the fourth quarter of 2010, down from 66.9 percent insingle-family home, using standard lending guidelines. the third quarter and 67.2 percent a year earlier. TheThat value is up 11.9 percentage points over the previous national homeownership rate has not been this lowquarter and 11.3 percentage points over the four-quarter since 1998. The homeownership rate for minority house-period. The increase in affordability is attributed to a holds decreased to 48.5 percent in the fourth quarter,0.7-percent increase in median family income, a 4-percent down from 48.6 percent in the previous quarter anddecrease in the median sales price of existing single- 49.8 percent a year earlier. The decline in homeowner-family homes, and a 16-basis-point decrease in mortgage ship reflects the subprime lending crisis, the high ratesinterest rates. of unemployment, and the recent severe recession. Servicer emphasis on home retention actions, includingEstimates from the MBA’s quarterly National Delinquency those actions under the Making Home AffordableSurvey, which is reported with a 2-month lag, showed Program, are helping to keep the number of newlythat the overall, short-term, and serious delinquency initiated and completed foreclosures down, despiterates for mortgages on 1- to 4-family homes all fell high rates of mortgage delinquency. Foreclosure activitySummary 4

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has also declined recently as lenders review internalprocedures related to the foreclosure process. This de- 2010 annual Datacline is likely to be temporary, however, and loan modi- Housing production indicators improved in 2010. Infication programs cannot help all delinquent borrowers. both the single-family and multifamily sectors, permitsIn this regard, servicers have indicated that completed and starts increased, although completions declined.foreclosures are likely to increase as alternatives for Shipments of manufactured homes increased 0.4 percentseriously delinquent borrowers are exhausted. in 2010, the first increase in annual shipments since 2005. The marketing sector performed less well, with both new and existing home sales declining during theMultifamily Housing past year. The median price of new homes sold rose during 2010, while remaining steady for existing homesPerformance in the multifamily housing sector (five or sold. Housing affordability improved during 2010,more units) was mixed in the fourth quarter of 2010. In although homeownership rates for the nation and forthe production sector, the number of building permits, most groups declined. The housing sector componentstarts, and completions all fell, although the decline of GDP (residential fixed investment) declined in 2010,in permits and completions was small. The absorption but by a much slower rate than in 2009.rate for multifamily apartments increased, while therental vacancy rate declined. The absorption rate for ■ Builders took out permits for 447,100 new single-condominiums and cooperatives also increased in the family homes in 2010, an increase of 3 percent fromfourth quarter. 2009. Multifamily permits were issued for 131,000 new units in 2010, up 11 percent from 2009.■ During the fourth quarter of 2010, builders took out permits for 131,000 (SAAR) new multifamily units, ■ Single-family housing starts totaled 471,000 units down 3 percent from the third quarter but up 14 in 2010, up 6 percent from 2009, while multifamily percent from a year earlier. housing starts totaled 105,000 units, up 8 percent from the previous year.■ Builders started construction on 90,000 (SAAR) new multifamily units in the fourth quarter, down ■ In 2010, construction was completed on 497,000 35 percent from 140,000 units in the third quarter new single-family housing units, 4 percent fewer but up 33 percent from 68,000 units a year earlier. than in 2009. A total of 148,000 new multifamily Builders completed 114,000 (SAAR) multifamily units were ready for occupancy in 2010, down 43 units in the fourth quarter, down 1 percent from the percent from 2009. previous quarter and 52 percent from year-earlier levels. ■ Builders sold 321,000 new single-family homes in 2010, down 14 percent from the 375,000 homes■ Market absorption of new multifamily units in- they sold in 2009. For all of 2010, the median price creased for apartments and for condos and co-ops in of new homes sold was $221,900, up 2.4 percent the fourth quarter of 2010. Of the total number of from 2009. new apartments completed in the third quarter, 62 percent were leased in the first 3 months after com- ■ NAR reported that 4.908 million existing single- pletion, up from 56 percent in the third quarter and family homes were sold in 2010, a 5-percent decrease 10 percentage points higher than year-earlier levels. from the 5.165 million sold in 2009. For all of 2010, Of the total number of new condos and co-ops com- the median price of existing homes sold was $173,000, pleted in the third quarter of 2010, 40 percent were nearly the same as in 2009. sold in the fourth quarter, up 2 percentage points ■ Builders were just slightly more optimistic in 2010 from the third quarter but down 6 percentage points than they were in 2009. The NAHB/Wells Fargo from a year earlier. composite Housing Market Index averaged 16 points■ The multifamily rental vacancy rate reported by in 2010, up 1 point from 2009. The 2009 value was the Census Bureau was 10.4 percent in the fourth the lowest annual value in the 25-year history of quarter of 2010, down from 11.8 percent in the third this attitude survey. quarter and 12.5 percent a year earlier. ■ The average interest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mort- gages in 2010, as reported by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, was 4.69 percent, 35 basis points below the 2009 annual average rate, which set a record low. 5 Summary

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■ According to the NAR Housing Affordability Index, the affordability of housing improved in 2010, increas- ing by 5.2 percentage points from 2009. A family What Do We KnoW earning the median level of income ($61,583) had 174.6 percent of the income needed to purchase about Single-Family the median-priced existing home ($173,200), while mortgage interest rates declined 25 basis points to rental ProPertieS? 4.89 in 2010. The increase in housing affordability is attributed to falling interest rates and a 0.8-percent increase in median family income, which more than Introduction offset a 0.6-percent increase in the median sales price. The 2009 American Housing Survey1 (AHS) identified■ The FHA guaranteed 1.625 million mortgages in 130.1 million housing units in the United States, 77 2010, down 20 percent from 2009. Private insur- percent (99.7 million) of which were one- to four-unit ance on mortgages decreased 28 percent in 2010 to buildings,2 with the remaining 23 percent being multi- 317,037 loans. family buildings with five or more units. While most housing discussions focus on homeownership of single-■ Based on the Housing Vacancy supplement to the family buildings and rental housing within multifamily Current Population Survey, the proportion of Ameri- buildings, 21 percent (20.6 million) of one- to four-unit can households that owned their homes in 2010 buildings provide rental housing. The 2009 AHS found declined to 66.9 percent from 67.4 percent in 2009. that 27 percent of rental housing units were in single- The homeownership rate for White non-Hispanic family-detached structures, 6 percent were located in households was 74.4 percent in 2010, down from single-family-attached structures (for example, row- 74.8 percent in 2009; the homeownership rate for houses sharing one or more common walls on individu- African-American households was 45.9 percent ally owned or leased lots), 20 percent were in two- to in 2010, down from 46.6 percent in 2009; and the four-unit structures (for example, a duplex on a single homeownership rate for Hispanic households was lot), and 48 percent were located in buildings with five 47.5 percent, down from 48.4 percent in 2009. or more units. These figures illustrate that, despite the focus on multifamily rental housing, the U.S. rental■ The rental vacancy rate declined, while the absorp- housing stock is split nearly down the middle, 52 to 48 tion of new apartments rose in 2010. The vacancy percent, between one- to four-unit, single-family, and rate for multifamily rental units fell to 11.6 percent five or more unit, multifamily, structures . In the wake in 2010, down from 12.3 percent in 2009. The average of the buildup of single-family homes during 2004 lease rate for newly completed apartments rented through 2006, the housing bust of 2007 through 2010, within 3 months of their completion was 55 percent and the dramatic rise in foreclosures and vacancies in 2010 compared with 50 percent for all of 2009. in single-family homes, the one- to four-unit share of■ The housing component of GDP (residential fixed rental housing is poised to increase further in 2011 investment) declined 3.0 percent in 2010 compared and 2012. Given the significant contribution of one- to with a decline of 22.9 percent in 2009. four-unit structures to the rental housing market, it is important to examine and understand the characteris- tics of single-family rental structures, their residents, their owners, their financing, and their distribution across the United States. AHS Data—Property and Renter Characteristics Table 1 shows the number of bedrooms per unit and the age (year built) of rental buildings with one unit, two to four units, and five or more units in the United States as reported in the 2009 AHS. The top half of Table 1 shows that the largest share of units in multifamily buildings (buildings with five or more units) have one- bedroom while two-bedroom units account for the largest share of units in two- to four-unit buildings, and three- bedroom units account for the largest share of units in one-unit buildings (single-family detached or attached).Summary 6

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Table 3. Household Income and Housing Costs Relative to Area Median Income Structure Type 1 unit (%) 2–4 units (%) 5+ units (%) Total (%) Percent of Renters by Building Type in Each Income Category < 30% AMI 17.8 25.1 21.9 21.1 30–50% AMI 18.4 20.8 21.1 20.1 51–60% AMI 8.4 8.2 8.7 8.5 61–80% AMI 14.6 13.7 13.3 13.8 81–100% AMI 10.4 9.6 9.3 9.8 101–120% AMI 9.1 7.8 8.6 8.6 >120% AMI 21.4 14.8 17.0 18.1 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Rent Affordability (% AMI Required To Afford a Particular Housing Unit) < 30% AMI 5.5 5.9 4.8 5.3 30–50% AMI 25.4 35.5 26.4 28.0 51–60% AMI 17.9 22.1 23.1 21.1 61–80% AMI 26.8 24.0 27.2 26.4 81–100% AMI 12.9 5.7 7.7 9.1 101–120% AMI 6.5 3.4 4.3 4.8 >120% AMI 5.0 3.5 6.5 5.4 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100AMI = Area Median Income.Sources: American Housing Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Developmentwhereas, one-unit buildings, and to a lesser extent two- (AMI). The top half of Table 3 shows the percentageto four-unit rental buildings, have a greater percent share of renters by structure size that falls into each relativeof residents from the middle of the age distribution (35 to income category. Note that the table contains only54 years old). The split in residents in buildings with data on renter households (families and unrelatedfive units or more may be due to (1) younger households individuals), while AMI estimates are based on allseeking low-maintenance housing and communities families, including homeowners, but exclude unrelatedbefore making the transition into homeownership and individuals. The table shows that residents with the(2) older households seeking low-maintenance housing lowest income relative to AMI (less than or equal toand communities as they make the transition out of 30 percent of AMI) are disproportionately in two- tosingle-family homeownership. The lower half of Table four-unit buildings and, to a lesser extent, in buildings2 shows that a higher percent share of non-Hispanic with five or more units. Similarly, residents with theWhite renters reside in one-unit rental buildings and highest income relative to AMI (greater than or equalthat a higher percent share of non-Hispanic Black, to 100 percent AMI) disproportionately choose to liveHispanic, and other minority renters reside in rental in one-unit rental buildings. The lower half of Table 3buildings with two to four units and five or more units. shows the percent of AMI that a household would haveThe Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) provides to earn to be able to afford a particular rental housingdata on the race and ethnicity of the owners of one- to unit. Two- to four-unit buildings have the highest inci-four-unit rental properties. In 2009, one- to four-unit dence of affordability in the two most affordable categoriesrental mortgage originations were divided at 65.6, 2.7, (below 30 percent of AMI and 30 to 50 percent of AMI),6.1, and 25.6 percent among the categories of non-His- which probably reflects that two- to four-unit buildingspanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other. have a greater share of older buildings, as shown inThe high share for “other” is due, in part, to corporate Table 1. The highest share for one-unit buildings andor nonprofit purchases and refinances in addition to for buildings with five or more units is within the 60-other minorities. Race and ethnicity origination shares to 80-percent AMI category. The share of rental unitsremained relatively constant from 2004 through 2009, requiring income equal to 80 percent of AMI or greaterwith the notable exception of the non-Hispanic Black to be affordable is the highest for one-unit buildingsshare, which declined from 6.02 to 2.70 percent, while and buildings with five or more units, probably becausethe other share increased from 18.7 to 25.6 percent. of the fact that these property types have a greater share of newer buildings, and one-unit buildings have aTable 3 shows rental household income and rental greater share of units with three or more bedrooms, ashousing costs relative to the Area Median Income shown in Table 1.Summary 8

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Financing and Mortgage first section presents performance for all originations years, with the subsequent six sections containing per-Performance formance for origination years 2005 to 2010; the final section contains performance for mortgages originatedBecause rental properties are purchased solely for before 2005. For each property type, the table showsinvestment purposes and owner-occupant properties (1) active loan count, (2) share of loans in foreclosure,are purchased for both the provision of shelter and and (3) total noncurrent share of loans.economic returns, it is often hypothesized that pay-ment and default behaviors differ substantially based Table 4 shows that the trends for both primary residenceson occupancy and that mortgages on one- to four-unit and rental properties have moved in tandem; that is, forrental properties underperform the mortgages of owner- the all origination year groups, the share of mortgagesoccupants. Figure 1 and Tables 4 and 5 use LPS Applied that are in foreclosure and noncurrent has increasedAnalytics Mortgage Performance Data to compare first- for both primary residences and rental properties overlien mortgage performance for rental property investors time from 2005 to 2010. The table shows that, acrossand owner-occupants over time.3 origination years, foreclosure and noncurrent shares of more recent vintages (for example, 2010, 2009, 2008)Figure 1 shows the share of active first-lien mortgages performed better in the first, second, and third yearsthat were noncurrent (30 or more days delinquent or after origination than vintages at the peak of the hous-in foreclosure) as of December 31st in each year from ing market in 2006 and 2007. Looking at all origination2005 through 2010––broken out by units in structure years, the noncurrent share for mortgages on one-unit(one unit versus two to four units) and occupancy status rental properties was less than the noncurrent share onof the property owner (primary residence, second home, one-unit primary residences on December 31st of eachor rental property). From 2005 through 2010, default year from 2005 through 2010, with the exception ofrates were lowest for one-unit second homes and high- December 2008. The table shows that, for individualest for two- to four-unit primary residences (meaning origination years, the rental noncurrent share is lessthe owner lives in one of the units), while one-unit than the share for primary residences at all points inrentals, two- to four-unit rentals, and one-unit primary time, for all origination years, with the exception ofresidences were bound by a range in the center, with the 2005 origination year in December 2008, at whichrental properties showing slightly lower default rates point the noncurrent share for rental properties exceededthan one-unit primary residence mortgages, with the the noncurrent share for primary residences. Conversely,exception of 2008, when one-unit rental defaults slightly the rental foreclosure share exceeds the primary resi-exceeded the default rate for one-unit primary residences. dence foreclosure share in nearly every case. The fact that the noncurrent share is lower but the foreclosureTable 4 (Table 5) shows mortgage performance for one- share is higher for one-unit rental properties comparedunit (two- to four-unit) primary residence and rental with one-unit primary residences may indicate a greaterproperties over the period from 2005 through 2010 by willingness by lenders to work with delinquent one-origination year. The left-hand side of the table contains unit, owner-occupant borrowers to avoid foreclosureperformance for primary residences and the right-hand relative to nonowner-occupant borrowers.side contains performance for rental properties. TheFigure 1. Percent Share Noncurrent by Occupancy and Structure Type 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% December December December December December December 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Primary (1 unit) Second Property (1 unit) Rental (1 unit) Primary (2–4 units) Second Property (2–4 units) Rental (2–4 units)Sources: LPS Applied Analytics Mortgage Performance Data; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 9 Summary

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Distribution of U.S. Rental Table 11 shows the distribution of one-unit rental properties relative to one-unit primary residences inStructures the 50 states and the District of Columbia, based on the Lender Processing Services Mortgage PerformanceTables 10 and 11 present data on the geographic distribu- Data at the end of 2010. Although California, Florida,tion of U.S. rental properties. The top half of Table 10 and Texas have the greatest number of one-unit rentalshows that 1-unit rental properties are most heavily properties, only Florida (ranked 7th) is within the top-10concentrated in the suburbs, while all other property list of states by relative one-unit rental share. Table 11types (from 2- to 4-unit buildings up to properties with lists states ordered by the ratio of the “percent of one-50 or more units) are most heavily concentrated in unit rental properties” to the “percent of one-unit primarycentral cities. The lower half of Table 10 shows that, residences” for each state. This ratio gives an indica-on a regional basis, 1-unit properties are most heavily tion of which states have a disproportionate share ofconcentrated in the South and West. Properties with one-unit rental properties (ratio is greater than 1) and2 to 4 units are more evenly distributed, with slightly which states may have a shortage of one-unit rentalhigher concentrations in the Northeast and South. properties or an environment that does not lend itselfSimilar to 1-unit properties, properties of 5 to 49 units to one-unit rentals (ratio is less than 1), relative toare most heavily concentrated in the South and West, primary residences. The five highest one-unit rentalwhile concentrations of properties with 50 or more to primary residence ratios are in Hawaii, Nevada, theunits align more closely with 2- to 4-unit property District of Columbia, Arizona, and Idaho. The fiveconcentrations in the Northeast and South. lowest ratios are in Connecticut, North Dakota, Iowa, New York, and Massachusetts.Table 10. Regional and Urban Distribution of U.S. Rental Structures Structure Type Single Family 2–4 Units 5–19 Units 20–49 Units 50+ Units Total City/Suburban Status Central city 33.7% 48.7% 47.0% 54.8% 67.2% 45.2% Suburb 43.3% 35.3% 44.3% 37.5% 29.8% 40.2% Nonmetro 23.0% 16.0% 8.8% 7.7% 3.0% 14.6% Total units (#) 10,896,007 6,679,178 8,514,613 3,007,953 2,740,682 31,838,432 Region Midwest 20.4% 23.6% 20.6% 18.6% 19.1% 20.8% Northeast 12.0% 28.1% 15.8% 21.4% 31.4% 19.0% South 40.8% 26.0% 38.1% 31.8% 26.2% 34.8% West 26.8% 22.4% 25.6% 28.2% 23.4% 25.4% Total units (#) 10,896,007 6,679,178 8,514,613 3,007,953 2,740,682 31,838,432Sources: American Housing Survey; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentTable 11. Relative Distribution of One-Unit Rental Homes 1-Unit Rentals and Rental-to-Primary Residence Ratio State Ratio State Ratio State Ratio State Ratio State Ratio HI 1.8 CA 1.3 ME 1.0 IN 0.9 IL 0.7 NV 1.7 DE 1.3 MO 1.0 RI 0.9 NH 0.6 DC 1.6 SC 1.2 WY 1.0 KY 0.9 MN 0.6 AZ 1.6 WA 1.2 TX 0.9 AR 0.8 NE 0.6 ID 1.6 VA 1.1 AL 0.9 LA 0.8 SD 0.6 OR 1.5 GA 1.1 MS 0.9 MI 0.8 NJ 0.6 FL 1.4 MT 1.1 KS 0.9 PA 0.7 MA 0.6 CO 1.4 UT 1.1 OH 0.9 WV 0.7 NY 0.6 NM 1.4 OK 1.1 TN 0.9 WI 0.7 IA 0.5 NC 1.3 VA 1.0 MD 0.9 AK 0.7 ND 0.5 CT 0.5Sources: LPS Applied Analytics Mortgage Performance Data; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development 15 Summary

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Conclusion Although it is common to think of rental “properties” as 2 meaning one or more buildings under common manage- ment and financing, most federal government surveysAlthough housing discussions traditionally focus on actually collect information on individual buildings,homeownership in single-family properties and rental not properties; exceptions are the Property Owners andhousing within multifamily properties, 21 percent of Managers Survey of 1996 and the Residential Financesingle-family, one- to four-unit buildings are used as Surveys of 2001 and earlier. HUD and the Census Bureaurental properties, and 2009 AHS data show that U.S. are currently developing a Rental Housing Finance Surveyrental housing is split nearly down the middle, 52 to that will also attempt to survey properties rather than48 percent, between one- to four-unit, single-family individual buildings. On the other hand, private-sectordwellings and multifamily buildings with five or more financing data is more likely to be for properties than forunits. The characteristics of rental units vary signifi- individual buildings.cantly in terms of size (number of bedrooms), structuretype, age, and geography. At the same time, the residents 3 This comparison may exclude financing for some one- toof different kinds of rental housing vary significantly in four-unit structures that are part of properties with five orage, race and ethnicity, and income. Analysis of mortgage more units.data for owner-occupied and rental properties indicatesthat, with sound underwriting, mortgages on rental 4 In Table 8, affordability is defined as the share of rentalproperties perform at least as well as owner-occupant units that have rents less than or equal to a given share ofmortgages such that reluctance to extend credit to AMI. For example, in 2009, 17.0 percent of Fannie Mae’srental property investors because of the perception of one-unit, investor property mortgage purchases had rentselevated risk may be unwarranted. Revisiting lending equal to less than 50 percent of AMI.to rental property investors could assist housing marketsin working through the glut of vacant single-familyproperties and help victims of the foreclosure crisis by Glossaryproviding additional rental housing opportunities. active loan. Mortgage actively being serviced by a mortgage servicer.Notes in foreclosure. Mortgage that has been referred to an1 The American Housing Survey is conducted by the Cen- attorney to begin foreclosure proceedings, but for whichsus Bureau for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban the foreclosure sale or auction has not yet happened.Development (HUD). noncurrent. Mortgage that is either 30 or more days delinquent or is in foreclosure.Summary 16