Romney Leads Obama in Pew Likely Voter Poll After Debate

Moderator Jim Lehrer, anchor of the NewsHour on PBS television, left, moderates a debate between U.S. President Barack Obama, right, and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado, on Oct. 3. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg

The survey taken Oct. 4-7, following the Oct. 3
presidential debate in Denver, gave the former Massachusetts
governor 49 percent among likely voters and Obama 45 percent.
Among registered voters, 66 percent said Romney won the debate
and 20 percent said Obama did.

A Pew poll of likely voters taken Sept. 12-16 gave Obama a
51 percent to 43 percent lead, the widest margin of any nominee
since Bill Clinton in 1996.

The latest Pew poll showed Romney even with Obama among
women likely voters at 47 percent apiece, while leading among
men, 51 percent to 43 percent. Last month, Obama held an 18-point edge among women, 56 percent to 38 percent, and trailed by
2 points among men, with 48 percent backing Romney and 46
supporting the president. Independent likely voters backed
Romney, 46 percent to 42 percent; they split 45 percent to 44
percent for Obama in September.

Better on Jobs

Registered voters said Romney would do better on improving
the job situation, 49 percent to 41 percent. Last month, they
said Obama would be better, 46 percent to 45 percent.

The poll of 1,112 likely voters had a margin of error of
plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Among 1,201 registered
voters, the margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Among the likely voters, 36 percent identified as
Republican, 31 percent as Democratic and 30 percent as
independent. The September poll was 39 percent Democratic and 29
percent Republican.

Party identification is fluid and can change from poll to
poll, depending on voter attitudes about the candidates, said
Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup poll.

“Your age doesn’t fluctuate except once a year,” Newport
said. Pollsters, though, “can call people back and you’ll see
significant shifting” in whether they identify with a party or
consider themselves independent, he said.

Tracking Poll

Obama retained an advantage over Romney in the daily Gallup
tracking polling after the survey showing the two tied following
the debate.

The seven-day poll spanning a period through yesterday
showed a 5-percentage-point edge for Obama among registered
voters.

In polling Oct. 4-6 -- the three days after Obama and
Romney debated in Denver -- Gallup found 47 percent of
registered voters supporting the president and 47 percent his
Republican rival. In the three days before the debate, Obama led
Romney, 50 percent to 45 percent, the polling found.

The results of Gallup’s latest seven-day survey, Oct. 1-7,
show Obama again favored among 50 percent, Romney 45 percent.
This included weekend polling following the release of the Labor
Department’s report on Oct. 5 showing a 7.8 percent unemployment
rate, the lowest since Obama took office.

The rolling average of seven days of interviews by Gallup
with 3,050 registered voters carries a possible margin of error
of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Debate Viewership

An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll found “roughly 2 in 3 Americans
reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what
Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential
debates,” the polling organization’s Jeffrey Jones said today.

“Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney
did a better job than Obama, 72 percent to 20 percent,” Jones
said. “Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the
winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job
than Obama, 49 percent to 39 percent.”

Obama, at a fundraising concert last night in Los Angeles,
poked fun at his lackluster debate showing and vowed to do
better.

And at a separate event with 150 guests Obama said, “I’m a
big believer in closing the deal. You will see me working as
hard as I’ve ever worked” through Election Day, Nov. 6.

‘Harshest Critic’

Earlier yesterday, two of Obama’s campaign aides said the
president was disappointed with the debate outcome.

“The president understood that he hadn’t performed up to
his own expectations pretty quickly into -- after he got off the
stage that night,” Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs said on
ABC’s “This Week.”

Obama “is his harshest critic,” David Axelrod, an Obama
campaign strategist, said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“He’ll look at that tape and make the adjustments he
thinks are necessary,” Axelrod said.

The Obama campaign and Democratic strategists used the
Sunday talk shows to try to change the perception that the
president lost to an aggressive and lively Romney at the debate
at the University of Denver by portraying the former
Massachusetts governor as willing to say anything.

‘Taken Aback’

Asked why Obama didn’t make those arguments during the
debate, Axelrod said, “he was a little taken aback at the
brazenness with which Governor Romney walked away from so many
of the positions on which he’s run, walked away from his
record.”

Democrats have pointed to Romney’s tax-cut plan and his
views on teacher hiring as departures from previous campaign
statements. Also at the debate, Romney said pre-existing
conditions are covered in his health-care proposal; after the
debate, his own campaign aides said the plan doesn’t guarantee
coverage.

A new Obama campaign online ad highlights those issues. In
the minute-long spot, a narrator says of Romney, “when the
cameras rolled, a performance began.”

Gibbs, appearing on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” said Obama
would be “engaged” at the next debate, a town-hall style event
Oct. 16 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. Obama is
“ready and willing to call out whichever Mitt Romney shows
up,” Gibbs said.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Romney, who
defeated him in this year’s Republican presidential primaries,
trounced Obama.

‘Walked Over Him’

“Mitt Romney walked over him,” Gingrich said on “Meet
the Press.”

“The job of the president is supposed to be, to be
competent, and to be able to stand up for what he believes in,
and to be able to articulate what’s wrong,” Gingrich said.

Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist not working for
Romney, said on “Meet the Press” that the estimated 67 million
people who watched the debate saw Romney as “a guy brimming
with new ideas and energy” while Obama appeared to be
“sleepwalking.”

Gallup’s survey of 1,387 registered voters over the three
days after the debate had an error margin of plus or minus 3
percentage points.