The Winning Element @ The Byron Nelson

The Winning Element

This is where we blend the tour level content with tour level data, mix in human element factors to generate this Week’s top 25 leaderboard. Instead of trying to do the impossible and place every golfer in their respective finishing position, we’ve grouped them into their most likely spots with our final piece of written content each week.

Last Weeks Results:

In a week full of interesting results the Tour Level Team fared pretty well, getting 85% of our picks through the cut with our most heavily suggested player in Adam Scott finishing 6th. All in all another strong week for Tour Level.

Cuts: 24 of 28

Top 10’s: 2

Top 25’s: 11

Last week’s Winner Picked- No

The Players Leaderboard

Top 10 Most Likely to Win- This leader-board is indicative of what we expect the leaderboard to look like come sunday. The golfer listed first is who we think is most likely to win.

Jordan Spieth (12/1 DK- $10,800 FD- $10,500) I know the course history wouldn’t think to put him winning, but we will make the case. First, he is going to go under owned in DK and thus a good opportunity for some great upside variance. He’s coming off a MC and hasn’t missed a cut here in 6 tries, and beyond that, he’s been home since Friday of last week working with his coach. All of that is within 45 minutes of where they play this weekend. It was his first pro golf tournament he played in back in 2010 at the ripe age of 16, and it’ll be the last time this tournament is played here for the, at least foreseeable future. Thus giving him the chance to be most prepared have a positive human element factor, mix that with a bit of a target on his back? He could end up running away with it.

Dustin Johnson (4.8/1 DK-$12,500 FD-$11,800) If the above scenario holds true, the only guy that may be able to keep up with Jordan would be DJ. This course favors a high cut, and you know that’s the type of shot DJ hits “better than most”.

Brooks Koepka (15/1 DK-$10,200 FD- $9,500) Good course history, no nagging gf, and Brooks being back to Brooks, points to him having a chance to win this thing this weekend. A second and 13th in his only two showings, matched up with a pretty decent week at TPC, I like his chances to get on the final page of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Charlie Hoffman (33/1 DK-$8,500 FD-$7,900) Charlie is coming back to Texas where he has had continued success at this track the past 3 years with results of 12/2/8 we know Charlie can move the ball around TPC Four Seasons. What is really intriguing about Charlie this week is his SG ATG are above his YTD avg over the last 4 weeks, a normally suspect area of Charlie’s game. Scrambling will be important this week and we like Hoffman to show up well again this year.

Byeong Hun-An (66/1 DK-$8,000 FD- $7,500) The lack of course history might have some people concerned but this year’s body of work from Bennie An is not the kind of thing to ignore. Showing up as the 54 hole leader at the Waste Management, An has the talent to play with the big boys on Tour and his recent 8th place at Eagle Point further supports this. An gains strokes off the tee and on approach but recently his around the green game has been a tick better than average which should help him this week. He is plenty long to get home for a few eagle looks this week as well.

Jason Day (15/1 DK-$10,100 FD $10,500) Day has been dealing with a lot lately and finally seems to be getting back into a competitive mind set and while he hasn’t played here in a few years, when did he dominated! Gaining 2.36 strokes on average (field best) in his previous 4 trips here, with a win. Day has the ability to overpower this course and his short game is getting back in shape, gaining a ¼ stroke on the field last week. Look for Day to break out of his slump this week if, and its a big if, he can figure out his putting. He’s been grinding over the past few weeks on it, so let’s see if this is the week he puts it all together.

Brandt Snedeker (39/1 DK- $8,400 FD-$ 9,200) Much has been said about his nagging hand/wrist injury, but from our point of view, why would he play if he was hurt? He doesn’t have any sponsorship obligations here, unless there’s something i don’t know about, as team RBC is here (Day, DJ, Brandt). He’s sitting comfortable in terms of FedEx points, so whats really the point if he’s hurt? His value on the betting side, and on DK are much better than on FD, so that’s where we’d focus our Sneds exposure.

Charl Schwartzel (45/1 DK- $8,100 FD- $7,400) Charl is the 6th best golfer by world rank in the field but priced as 14th highest on DK , coming off a MC but previously a 3rd at the Masters. With so few events to identify his form and it is hard to put a lot of stock into the Player’s result which saw a lot of carnage, we have to look at a bit of course history here. 2 Top 10’s in the past 4 years is enough for me to see value in the 17th ranked golfer in the world this week who should be finding his game and can play at an elite level. Historically Charl has gained 1.10 strokes on the field around TPC Four Seasons.

Ryan Palmer (50/x DK- $ FD- $7,200)Palmer in Texas. If it ain’t broke, why fix/fight it? Just go with it. He’s ⅝ here but each of the 5 times he made the cut he played very well. 4 top 25’s and all finishes inside the top 35. Coming off a MC at the Players, which by the way was because of a double on 18 to miss by 2,

Ollie Schniederjans (50/1 DK-$7,700 FD-$7,700) Ollie is very similar to Tway is his style of play and strengths of his game. Very long off the tee, his current strokes gained approach are above his ytd baseline. Ollie also scores very well on the long par 4’s and his low ball flight could help him a bit if the winds get up this week at all. A talented golfer in form that has an opportunity to post really well this week.

Keegan Bradley (80/1 DK-$6,900 FD- $6,900) This is our long shot to win. As mentioned in “Against the Grain” his SGOTT was one of the best in the field last week which is very encouraging for Keegan. Normally very good with his mid to short iron play, if Keegans short game can be on this week, he could find himself creeping into the top 10.

Notables & Value Plays

Bud Cauley (40/1 DK- $7,800 FD- $6,400) Bud has been on a tare recently with his scoring performances at the RBC and Valero that saw him with a share of the 36 hole lead. Gaining strokes off the tee and playing well above his YTD average, Bud has the driver game to compete here. He is also gaining plenty of strokes approaching the green over his ytd average. I am looking to ride Cauley’s hot form this week and add in his 4th place finish last year, could be a Bud week. His MC back in 2014 is not too concerning to me, it was his first time and he is certainly showing that he is a better golfer today than he was then.

Kevin Tway (50/1 DK- $7,700 FD- $5,700) Hulk Smash is an accurate description of what happens when Tway hits a driver! He is crazy long, but oddly the current strength of his game has been his iron play the past few weeks, running at 1.55 strokes better than his baseline YTD as well as picking up another ½ stroke around the greens. With an in form iron game and distance to spare, we could see another big week from Tway. We already know he doesn’t mind the Texas winds (Valero 3rd) and backed it up with a T5 at Eagle Point.

Nick Taylor (100/1 DK- $6,900 FD- $5,700) The Canadian is arriving at The Byron Nelson in some incredible form having rattled off an increasingly improving MC/44/22/22/8. His results certainly suggest that he is peaking at the moment and should be considered this week regardless of his lack of course history. He is gaining strokes over his ytd baseline off the tee and on approach, which correlates nicely. Nick scrambles well in general and is better than most out of the sand statistically, which has helped past winners here.

Sung Kang (55/1 DK- $7,400 FD- $6,100) The Korean Narrative is in full effect this week as the pseudo home town boy Kang is being talked about everywhere and for good reason. His last year’s 34 seems to be getting more attention than his 2 previous MC here. I am willing to give him benefit of the doubt with the ‘11-’12 results due to his hot recent form. Posting 49/2/11/6/60 in his last 5 is impressive and it supported mainly by his improved iron play and strokes gained approach.

Cameron Tringale (250/1 DK- $6,700 FD- $5,600) You are going to have to ignore the MC several years back for Cameron and we are going with the form generator on this one. Cameron had his irons finally pop and big time a full stroke over his ytd baseline last week. Not a ton to go on but when a player get’s their irions dialed in they gain confidence in their game. Cam also has been incredible around the greens lately, which guys will need this week! Expect to see Tringale post better results than in the past.

Gonazalo F-Dez Castano (250/1 DK- $7,200 FD- $5,100) This is a deep pick but also one that is backed up by our form generator and his 16th place here last year. Sporting a vintage popped collar in his DK pic, F-dez gained .67 strokes around TPC Four Seasons 2 years ago and is currently is gaining 2.21 strokes on average the last 4 weeks over his YTD baseline. Suffice to say he is in form right now and returning to a course he played well last time out. Not suggesting to go heavy on F-dez but a sprinkle in your GPP player pool could pay off this week.

J.T. Poston (110/1 DK- $7,300 FD- $6,400) J.T. has put together an impressive run the past 4 weeks in his first year, with a 10/55/27/24. There is nothing really flashy about Poston’s game but he hits his irons well and conserves his strokes around the green. As we saw with his 10th place, J.T. can score.

Ben Crane (250/1 DK- $6,500 FD- $5,400) A featured pick from the “down undah” picks Crane’s positive attitude and continued improvement with his new swing coach, make him part of our human element series. Outrights and FD round ½ is where the most value is here.

Boo Weekley (200/1 DK- $7,200 FD- $5,200) If you joined the edge periscope with Bowdo last week and heard him say Boo was hitting the ball better than he had ever seen and it was unreal…he was right! 1st in SG App last week, picking up 2.25 on the field and 1.88 strokes over his ytd average (which is already .60). Striking the ball well and also picking up strokes over his average off the tee means Boo is ready to contend & has a great shot to putt better than average on greens that favor bad putters (especially when they are wet).

Ricky Barnes (250/1 DK- $6,100 FD- $5,100) Quietly Ricky has found a way back to his game, making 6 of his last 7 cuts and 3 straight. Coming back to a course where has made 6 of his last 8 cuts and finished inside the top 25 last year. So we have some history and shaky form but the form generator also tells us that of his improved play lately, the best result was last week off the tee and into the green combined over his ytd average. This all lines up to say that Ricky makes for a decent value play who should make the cut if you need to go down this low.

Chad Campbell (250/1 DK-$6,200 FD- $4,900) Home town narrative for the week, as a few others fit that bill as well. @pgaedge is one of them! According to our local Tour Pro, Chad plays the course more than anyone, and for this value, and decent tournament history, it’s worth a few roster spots.

Heel Bleeder’s:

A new section this week, as these are golfers that probably won’t hurt you, but won’t help you either. Just like hitting your driver of the heel, and having it bleed left or right a bit, but not much, we expect these golfers to all make the cut, but not contend this weekend.

Sergio Garcia

Matt Kuchar

Tony Finau

Russell Henley

The Albatross:

In honor of Rafa-Cabera Bello’s amazing Albatross this weekend, the first time it had been done on 16 @ TPC Sawgrass, we bring you a few total long shots, that could find form this week. This will be guys that we were able to see over the past few days on site that seemed to be working and or practicing in the right way. Still they will need a few “RCB” like bounces to win.

Wilcox

Pampling

Henry

The Power Fade Report:

Each week, it seems that a singular player, and often a highly-owned one sinks a perfect lineup, so our bad chalk report is here to help. We are going to bring you some additional value by helping to identify a player that projects to be highly owned but has the potential to let those that roster him down with a possible MC or a lackluster performance for one reason or another.

Patrick Reed

As a team, after thorough discussion, we are fading Patrick Reed just simply because of the course setup. His stats and form seem to be right where they need to be, but the a majority of the holes, as mentioned in the “Edge’s yardage book” , require a right to left ball flight, whereas reed loves to play left to right shot shape. With his ownership projected to be relatively low, there’s certainly no need to overweight him.

Make sure to follow the team on Twitter! @dfsjimmie @dfsgolfer23 @hump_bumgarnder @Tourlvlfantasy