Title: MILITARY ANALYSIS
by an analyst who prefers to remain anonymous
Date Sent to Zipple: December 10, 2000

ALERT: FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE!

MILITARY ANALYSIS by an analyst who prefers to remain anonymous

Political pundits are mystified by Barak’s decision to resign and hold
elections within 60 days. He seems to have very little to gain. He will
either lose to just about any challenger - as polls strongly indicate, or he
will win and be stuck with the same grid-locked Knesset.

There is one rather frightening scenario by which Barak’s action makes
perfect Machiavellian sense.

Syria has been repeatedly warned that, if they do not rein in the Hizb’Allah
’s terror attacks on the Lebanese border, Israel will attack Syrian troops
in Lebanon. This will then lead to further escalation, according the
analysts, followed by an Israeli-Syrian war - with the certain participation
of Iraq - as well as other Arab countries.

Israeli population centers would probably be hit with Iraqi, Syrian and
perhaps even Iranian missiles. The Palestinians would inflict as many
civilian casualties as possible, and attempt to wipe out a few settlements.

The IDF would need to be concentrated on the borders so the settlements
would have to defend themselves. Direct casualties on the borders would
mount. But, Israel would somehow overcome and retain most of her former
borders.

Israel would then be sufficiently "softened up" with arms supplies used up.
She would have to accept an internationally brokered/pressured agreement
with Yassir Arafat and Syria’s Assad, giving them whatever they ask for.

Barak, agreement in hand and on the heels of a major military "salvation",
would then sweep to victory in the up-coming elections within 60 days. His
Nobel Peace Prize would follow shortly thereafter.

Farfetched? Not really. Look at what Henry Kissinger orchestrated before the
1973 Yom Kippur War. A limited Arab attack with a limited Israeli military
defeat in order to bring a "softened" Israel to the negotiating table. We
recall how a then General Sharon - against orders - executed a flanking
maneuver surrounding the Egyptian Army in the Sinai Desert and was only
prevented from destroying it by incredible international pressure.

The Barak scenario calls for a limited Arab incursion, increased attacks by
the Palestinian Para-Military Forces, and a limited response from Israel to
Iraq/Syrian missile attacks. Civilian casualties will be high; military
casualties will be moderate - and Barak will regain power.