Milwaukee Brewers outfield prospect Trent Clark, the 2015 June Amateur Draft 15th overall pick, had a bit of a rough season in the minor leagues in 2016 but his skill set keeps him in my top 100, at least for now. He has elite level bat speed and should improve overall at the plate going forward. Here is my analysis of Mr. Clark that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In A ball Mr. Clark had 262 plate appearances. He hit for a .231 average with 2 home runs, 27 runs and 24 RBI’s. He had 5 steals in 15 attempts.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an A ball isolated power (ISO) of .113. Anyone at or under .200 I consider a majority singles hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. He should eventually (i.e. down the road) have 12 to 16 home run power at least.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

Mr. Clark’s .332 wOBA was below average. However, it was his first experience above Rookie ball so all-in-all this isn’t too bad.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Clark’s wOBA it might be a surprise to find out that he was actually 10% better than league average (110 wRC+) in A ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Clark had a K% of 26% at A ball in 2016. This receives a grade of awful from me. He has the offensive tools to bring that K% down some and more under control in future seasons. One thing that is exciting to see is his 14.1% BB%. That grades out as great. This shows his ability at pitch recognition, general approach at the plate, etc.

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Clark, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues. He needs to have a nice season to remain on this list at this time next season. He can’t just simply repeat his performance of 2016. He needs to hit for a better average and cut down on his K% some. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Clark has a full healthy 2017 I would project 5 home runs to go along with a .275 batting average with 9 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

Brett Phillips 2016-17 Off-Season Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers outfield prospect Brett Phillips, the 2012 June Amateur Draft 189th overall pick, had a bit of a rough season in the minor leagues in 2016 after a much more successful 2015 season split across A+ ball and AA ball. Here is my analysis of Mr. Phillips that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will not be looking at his Rookie ball numbers though as he only had 82 plate appearances while there in 2016. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In AA ball Mr. Phillips had 516 plate appearances. He hit for a .229 average with 16 home runs, 60 runs and 62 RBI’s. He had 12 steals in 19 attempts. Mr. Phillips will need to get back to what he was doing in 2015 for him to remain a top-100 prospect after the 2017 season.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an AA ball isolated power (ISO) of .168. Anyone at or under .200 I consider a majority singles hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. He likely is a future 10 to 15 home runs a season guy at the major league level.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

The .340 wOBA Mr. Phillips had I consider to be average.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Phillips’ wOBA it should not be a surprise to find out that he was 13% better than league average (113 wRC+) in AA ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Phillips had a K% of 29.8% at AA ball in 2016. This receives a grade of beyond awful from me. In a short stay (98 plate appearances) in AA ball in 2015 with the Brewers he had a 30.6% K% after having a 17.9% K% (average) in AA ball over 145 plate appearances that season while in the Houston Astros organization. In 322 plate appearances in A+ ball while with the Astros in 2015 Mr. Phillips had a 19.9% K% (below average). So, as you can see, he recently has been much better in the K% area, so there is some realistic hope that he can correct his K% concerns going forward. His 13% BB% (great) also shows his plate awareness skills and lends more belief to his ability to correct those K% concerns, even if it leads to less home runs.

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Phillips, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues. What he needs to do is get that K% reduced, even if it is at the expense of hitting less home runs. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Phillips has a full healthy 2017 I would project 13 home runs to go along with a .265 batting average with 18 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

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About Daniel Hilsgen

I'm a fantasy baseball addict and a paid writer at dynastysportsempire.com. I have a BS in Print Journalism from the University Of Wisconsin - River Falls. While in college I wrote briefly for the Associated Press. I have a deep love for sports, writing, baseball and fantasy baseball. You will find that I also love advanced statistics. I use these statistics and other information to form educated projections on baseball players future performance levels. Follow me on Twitter @FanBallAddict for easy access to my articles. In the off-season I have a fantasy baseball cheat sheet available for purchase. To purchase the fantasy baseball cheat sheet product or simply get on the contact list for it please email me at daniel.hilsgen@outlook.com

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