000
FXUS63 KTOP 072042
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
242 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Light snow has spread across the CWA today bringing small
accumulations to most areas. A stronger band had set up just south
of I-70 and has continued to shift south through the afternoon.
Even with this stronger area of precipitation, QPF and snow amounts
have remained low bringing generally a dusting to possibly up to
over a half inch across the area. This system will shift southeast
of the area by early evening bringing precipitation to an end. Skies
will begin to clear from the northwest to the southeast through the
evening which will aid temperatures in dropping into the teens and
single digits tonight. Northwest winds will persist through the
night bringing wind chills this evening down to near 0 degrees and
below across all of northeast Kansas. High pressure noses into the
area from the north tomorrow bringing clear skies overhead. Cold
air advection will still be prominent through the day, however,
keeping high temperatures even colder than today, into the mid-20s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Sfc high pressure axis centers across northeast Kansas by Friday
morning. Winds are fairly light, however increasing quickly towards
central Kansas as the next system brings high clouds quickly into
the area. There is high confidence in lows Friday morning falling to
the single digits with perhaps teens in central areas if high clouds
come in quicker. Wind chill readings reach 0 to 8 below zero for a
few hours before temps quickly warm into the upper 20s Friday
afternoon. Warm, southerly winds through Saturday modify the arctic
airmass, as highs warm back to near 40 degrees Saturday afternoon
underneath mostly cloudy skies. Next system progged to initially
arrive by Saturday evening, is now showing signs of slowing towards
Sunday instead. With the elongated trough across the northern plains
throughout the weekend, a series of shortwave troughs are expected
to pass through, creating uncertainty on timing and track of these
systems. The GFS is quicker and further north with this system,
leaving subsident air in its wake on Sunday and therefore dry
conditions. GFSensemble gleans no consistency with a large spread
between the different outputs. Meanwhile, ECMWF would give northeast
Kansas a mix of rain and snow Sunday morning and afternoon as the
sfc low deepens just east of the area and the cold front allows for
additional lift in the region. Overall since guidance is not
consistent with each other, have decided to leave the slight chances
for precipitation. Temperatures Sunday may also vary in east central
areas dependent on the placement of the cold front-ranging from the
lower 30s to near 40 degrees potentially.
For the first half of the week, guidance is showing some agreement
with another cold airmass sweeping in behind another cold front on
Tuesday, dropping highs back into the upper 20s and lower 30s
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows are once again down to the teens. There
is a slight chance for light snow to clip far northeast Kansas along
this front, however most of the area remains dry at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016
Reduced visibilities and ceilings are now being seen at all sites.
Light snow will continue to fall for the next couple hours with
the highest intensities and lowest visibilities until 19Z. Skies
will begin to clear from northwest to southeast late in the
afternoon with VFR conditions expected after 22-23Z.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Heller