NBA Beat: Race is on for MVP

The league’s general managers have spoken: Kevin Durant will be this season’s NBA Most Valuable Player.

In a preseason survey conducted by NBA.com, Durant received 66.7 percent of the votes cast by the GMs. Only four players earned votes: Durant, Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and LeBron James.

Of course, the GMs don’t get to vote for MVP. That’s still up to the media that covers the league on a regular basis.

On Breeders’ Cup weekend, here’s our own attempt at handicapping this season’s MVP race, remembering that team success often is a deciding factor when the media votes at season’s end:

Dwight Howard, Magic

2009-10: 18.3 PPG; 13.2 RPG; 2.8 BPG

2009-10 MVP rank: 4

Rundown: Howard spent part of the summer working on his offensive game with Hakeem Olajuwon, one of the greatest post scorers in league history. Already the NBA’s top shot blocker and rebounder, Howard wants to expand his offensive repertoire, and working with Olajuwon was a stroke of genius. He entered the weekend averaging 22.5 points per game, five more than last season. If he keeps that up, he’ll be the MVP.

Odds: 3-1

Kevin Durant, Thunder

2009-10: 30.1 PPG; 7.6 RPG; 2.8 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: 2

Rundown: It may have been Durant’s dominating performance at the FIBA World Championships that thrust him to the top of the GM’s list of likely MVP winners. But the fact he is the defending NBA scoring champion is another big factor. Durant’s all-around game and his ability to perform in the clutch are works in progress, but he is clearly one of the game’s most consistent scorers.

Odds: 7-2

LeBron James, Heat

2009-10: 29.7 PPG; 7.3 RPG; 8.8 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: 1

Rundown: James is the two-time defending MVP. With numbers like the ones he put up last season, it’s no wonder. Why would he drop to third in anyone’s ranking of potential MVPs? The Decision dictates that decision. By switching from the Cavs, where he was so dominant, to the Heat, where he shares the stage with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, James’ scoring is due for a dip. But if he averages a triple-double, he’ll still get plenty of support.

Odds: 4-1

Kobe Bryant, Lakers

2009-10: 27.0 PPG; 5.4 RPG; 5.0 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: 3

Rundown: Bryant is the best all-around player in the game, the leader of the two-time defending champions and the one player nearly every coach in the world would want taking a potential game-winning shot. So why isn’t he the odds-on favorite? Like James, an abundance of talented teammates tends to diminish his true impact.

Odds: 5-1

Chris Paul, Hornets

2009-10: 18.7 PPG; 4.2 RPG; 10.7 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: No votes (No. 5 in 2008-09)

Rundown: The reason Paul was left out of last season’s MVP discussion was the knee injury that limited him to roughly half the season. He was fifth the previous season and second in 2007-08. He’s healthy again, and the Hornets are the surprise success of the first two weeks of the season.

Odds: 8-1

Dwayne Wade, Heat

2009-10: 26.6 PPG; 4.8 RPG; 6.5 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: 5

Rundown: Wade usually figures among the top three in MVP consideration. Not this season, and the reason is obvious: LeBron James. Just as James’ chances of winning his third MVP are diminished by Wade’s presence on his team, Wade’s chances fell the moment James made The Decision.

Odds: 12-1

Rajon Rondo, Celtics

2009-10: 13.7 PPG; 4.4 RPG; 9.8 APG

2009-10 MVP rank: No votes

Rundown: Rondo has emerged as one of the league’s best point guards and defenders and a leader of one of the best teams. Through six games, he averaged a ridiculous 15.5 assists, which is why he’s on this list. It seems like an impossible pace to continue, but if he does keep it up, he’s going to receive lots of MVP votes.