4. Further information on statistics used in this bulletin

4.1 Statement on Data Quality

The statistics presented in this bulletin are derived from data
returns submitted to Police Scotland. Unlike other Justice
Analytical Services (
JAS)
bulletins which have seen changes to the way data is collected
arising from the merger of Scotland's police forces, this
publication retains a familiar data process. The main difference is
that Police Scotland, and not
JAS, collect
data returns from the divisions in respect of offences involving a
firearm. A reporting officer based within each division of Police
Scotland runs a series of queries on their individual Crime
Management Systems to identify crime reports which include
firearms. These records are then manually inputted into the data
return. A full process map of how data is collected for this
publication is shown in
Chart 6, starting from incident reporting by
police officers at an operational level to the publication of this
bulletin.

Not all such crimes and offences are reported to the police. The
extent of under-reporting is likely to vary considerably according
to the seriousness of the crime or offence; for example, armed
robberies are much more likely to be reported to the police than
malicious damage caused by the firing of an air weapon. Moreover,
the propensity of the public to report crimes and offences to the
police is influenced by a number of factors and may therefore
change over time; thus trends in the number of crimes and offences
recorded may differ from trends in the number of crimes and
offences actually committed. For further information, the
Scottish
Crime and Justice Survey for 2014/15 includes analysis on why
some crimes are not reported to the police.

This bulletin reports on offences involving firearms that are
both reported to the police and subsequently recorded as a
crime.

One area that could affect the accuracy of the statistics
reported in this bulletin is the potential for mistakes in the
recording of crime at an operational-level, which could create
errors in the Crime Management System (
CMS). The
CMS should
contain a record of all crime reports in Scotland and is audited by
the
Her
Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland (HMICS). On
21 September 2016,
HMICS
published Crime Audit 2016
[3]. The Audit found no systemic data quality issues around the
recording of crimes and offences. The report found that 'the
quality of most incident and crime recording decisions by Police
Scotland is good' 92.7% of incidents were closed correctly and
95.1% of crime was counted and classified correctly.

Chart 6: Offences involving the alleged use of a firearm,
data collection strategy for 2013-14

4.2 Publication of statistics for two years

The previous bulletin (for 2013-14) was postponed due to
challenges faced by Police Scotland in collating the necessary
data. Although those figures were published in June 2015, there was
also some delay with the 2014-15 data. As such we decided to
produce a two-year bulletin this time (for 2014-15 and 2015-16) -
which means the publication cycle for this topic has now been fully
recovered.

4.3 Data Returns

4.3.1 Miscellaneous firearm offences relating
mainly to the possession, handling and distribution of firearms and
ammunition are excluded from the main tables. Prior to 2005-06,
data returns for this bulletin did include miscellaneous firearm
offences, but in discussion with police forces it became apparent
that not all such incidents were being included. It was therefore
decided to remove such incidents from the main tables and to
provide a separate table (
Table 17) which presents the totals for
these offences based on
Recorded Crime data returns.

4.3.2 Under the Code of Practice for Official
Statistics, the estimated costs of responding to statistical
surveys and data collection are to be published. The estimated cost
for supplying and validating data for this return is £700 per
year.

4.4.1 Contraventions of Scottish criminal law are
divided for statistical purposes into crimes and offences. "Crime"
is generally used for the more serious criminal acts; the less
serious termed "offences", although the term "offence" may also be
used in relation to serious breaches of criminal law. The
distinction is made only for working purposes and the "seriousness"
of the offence is generally related to the maximum sentence that
can be imposed.

4.4.2 Following the Dunblane incident in 1996,
changes to the existing firearms legislation were introduced to
enhance public safety. As a result, the Firearms (Amendment) Act
1997 (the '1997 Act') was implemented and thereafter the Firearms
(Amendment) (No. 2) Act 1997 (the '1997 (No. 2) Act'). Under the
1997 Act, all pistols (otherwise referred to as "handguns") over
.22 calibre were banned with effect from 1 October 1997. The 1997
(No. 2) Act came into effect from 1 March 1998. A number of types
of handgun were exempted from the 1997 (No. 2) Act, including
muzzle-loading guns, shot pistols, slaughtering instruments,
firearms used for the humane killing of animals, trophies of war,
etc.

4.4.3 The Anti-Social Behaviour Act 2003 raised
the age for owning an air weapon from 14 years to 17 years; created
a new offence of possessing an air weapon or imitation weapon in a
public place without reasonable excuse; banned future import and
sale of air weapons using self-contained air cartridge systems and
licensed those already held. The Criminal Justice Act 2003 also
imposed minimum sentences for the illegal possession of a
prohibited firearm.

4.4.4 In relation to individuals aged under 18
years, the following legislation has been introduced:

The Violent Crime Reduction Act 2006 raised the minimum age
at which a person may purchase or hire either an air weapon or
ammunition for an air weapon to 18 years.

The
EU Weapons Directive
91/477/
EEC made
it an offence to sell or let on hire a firearm or ammunition to a
person under the age of 18 years.

4.5 Crimes and offences cleared up

4.5.1 The definition of 'cleared up' was revised with effect
from 1 April 1996. Previously, a crime or offence was regarded as
being cleared up if one or more offenders was apprehended, cited,
warned or traced for it. This was revised as follows:

A crime or offence is regarded as cleared up where there exists
a sufficiency of evidence under Scots law, to justify consideration
of criminal proceedings notwithstanding that a report is not
submitted to the procurator fiscal because either:

(i) by standing agreement with the procurator fiscal, the police
warn the accused due to the minor nature of the offence, or

(ii) reporting is inappropriate due to the non-age of the
accused, death of the accused or other similar circumstances.

4.5.2 For some types of crimes and offences the case is cleared
up immediately as the offender is caught in the act. In Scots law,
the confession of an accused person to a crime would not in general
be sufficient to allow a prosecution to be taken, as corroborative
evidence is required. Thus, a case cannot be regarded as 'cleared
up' on the basis of a confession alone.

4.5.3 Clear up rates are calculated as
follows:

4.6 Statistical issues

4.6.1 Data returns for incidents that occurred in
previous years can occasionally be submitted by police forces with
their returns for the current year. This will result in revisions
being made to figures previously published in this bulletin
series.

4.6.2 There have been various changes to the way
in which the type of firearm involved in offences has been recorded
over the years. From 2005-06 onwards, all police forces agreed to
identify weapons where possible, resulting in an increase in the
alleged use of air weapons (and other identified weapons) and a
decrease in the alleged use of unidentified firearms.

4.6.3 From 2005-06 onwards, the figures reported
in this bulletin provide more extensive coverage of those crimes
and offences recorded as involving a firearm. This follows
discussions with police forces regarding the scope of the data
collection and clarification of what should be included in the
statistical return. This clarification is not thought to have
impacted on major crimes and offences, but is considered to have
resulted in an increase in some of the more minor categories

4.6.4 It was also agreed with all police forces
that from 2006-07 onwards, all forces would include incidents
involving air weapons where no injury or damage was caused. These
incidents had previously been omitted from the bulletin. It is
thought that this change has increased both the total number of
offences of Reckless conduct with a firearm and the total number of
offences involving air weapons.

4.6.5 The increase in offences involving a
firearm in 2006-07 is thought to be partly due to the
aforementioned clarification of the counting rules which led to the
inclusion of more minor crimes that had perhaps been excluded in
the past. The scope of what constitutes a firearm was also
clarified as some police forces had previously not included
incidents involving weapons such as taser guns, mace and pepper
sprays, which are all covered under Section 5 of the Firearms Act
1968 (as amended). This clarification appears to have particularly
affected figures for Common assault and Breach of the peace
etc.

4.6.6 Prior to 2012-13, Lothian and Borders
Police included incidents within their recorded crime and offences
involving a firearm data return which indicated a possible firearm
had been used, for example; smashing window by firing air pellet or
similar at glass. This was recognised as inaccurate recording and
instruction was given to the effect that where there was no
evidence to substantiate a firearm had been used i.e. crime
witnessed, bullet found etc., the report would not be tagged with a
firearms marker. This will account for some of the decrease in the
number of firearm offences recorded by Lothian and Borders Police
in 2012-13 compared to previous years.

4.6.7 To calculate the figures shown in
Chart 2 and
Table 3, the total number of offences
involving a firearm are calculated as a percentage of all crimes
and offences recorded by the police. These figures are derived from
the Scottish Government's '
Recorded
Crime in Scotland' statistical bulletin series. The figures are
provided in
Table A.

4.6.8 The main firearm is that which inflicts the
most serious injury or damage. In cases where no injury or damage
is caused, the firearm that is considered to potentially be the
most dangerous is treated as the main weapon. The 'other' firearms
category includes weapons such as starting guns and ball bearing
guns. From 1988, crossbows were included in the 'other' category.
The 'imitation' firearms category includes replica and imitation
weapons.

4.6.9 Details of the age and gender of the main
victim (Tables
11 and
11a) are collected only for offences in
which fatal or non-fatal injury is caused. The main victim is the
person most seriously injured. Cases involving injury to animals
are recorded under the category 'damage to property' rather than
'injury' - which is reserved solely for the purpose of recording
injuries to persons.

4.6.10 Details of the age and gender of the main
accused (Tables
13 and
14) are collected for offences that are
cleared up. In offences involving injury or damage, the main
accused is the person who inflicts the most serious injury or
damage. In other instances, it is taken to be the oldest
person.

4.6.11 The figures provided in
Table 17 for stolen firearms are not
included elsewhere in this bulletin. The information reflects
solely those incidents where firearms were stolen and not whether
they were used to perpetrate a crime or offence.

4.6.12 There have been minor changes to the
categories included in the tables in this bulletin compared to
previous bulletins in this series. The changes were made to give a
clearer presentation of the data due to the fact that 'other'
categories were starting to dominate certain breakdowns. The
changes are as follows:

Within the offences categories, 'Other crimes and offences'
has been separated into 'Breach of the peace etc.' and 'Other
crimes and offences'.

Within the location categories, 'other locations' has been
separated into 'shop' and 'other locations'.

Table A: Selected crimes and offences
1 recorded by the police, Scotland, 2006-07 to
2015-16

Number

Type of Crime/Offence

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

Homicide
2

121

118

99

79

93

93

65

61

61

57

Attempted murder

820

711

710

560

573

503

354

317

263

293

Serious assault
3

6,525

6,000

5,762

5,061

4,920

4,190

3,289

2,951

2,903

3,716

Robbery

3,578

3,064

2,963

2,496

2,557

2,244

1,832

1,499

1,497

1,327

Vandalism

121,676

109,855

100,880

85,576

74,420

67,984

53,699

49,456

47,247

48,924

Common assault
3,4

78,167

73,523

74,130

72,212

70,786

69,253

60,955

60,357

58,178

58,596

Notes:
1. For further information on the selected crimes and
offences recorded by the police included in this table, please see
Note 4.7.1.
2. Includes Murder and Culpable homicide (common law). It
excludes Causing death by dangerous driving, Causing death by
careless driving while under the influence of drink or drugs,
Causing death by careless driving, Illegal driver involved in a
fatal accident and Corporate homicide.
3. For the distinction between Serious assault and Common
assault, please see
Note 4.7.2.
4. Common assault includes the offences of Common assault
and Common assault of an emergency worker.

4.7 Classification

4.7.1 For the purposes of statistical reporting,
the Scottish Government has a classification list containing about
475 crime and offence codes. These are grouped in this bulletin as
follows:

4.7.2 In Scotland, assault is a common law
offence. In order to distinguish between serious and common
assaults, police forces use a common definition of what a serious
assault is, namely:

"An assault or attack in which the victim sustains injury
resulting in detention in hospital as an inpatient, for the
treatment of that injury, or any of the following injuries whether
or not detained in hospital:

Fractures (the breaking or cracking of a bone. Note - nose is
cartilage not bone, so a 'broken nose' should not be classified
unless it meets one of the other criteria)

Internal injuries

Severe concussion

Lacerations requiring sutures which may lead to impairment or
disfigurement

Any other injury which may lead to impairment or
disfigurement."

4.8 Other

4.8.1 Only a limited selection of tables are
included in this bulletin. However, further analysis of recorded
crimes and offences involving firearms statistics can be supplied
upon request. This includes available information relating to a
different time period than that covered in this bulletin. In
certain cases, a fee may be charged for additional information. For
details of what can be provided, please telephone Justice
Analytical Services on 0131 244 2635 or e-mail
Justice_Analysts@gov.scot.

4.8.2 The percentage figures given in tables and
charts have been independently rounded, so they may not always sum
to the relevant sub-totals or totals.

4.8.3 The following symbols are used throughout
the tables in this bulletin:

- = nil.
~ = percentage less than 0.05%.
* = percentage less than 0.5%.
n/r = not reported (a percentage change figure is not
reported if the denominator is less than ten as any resulting
figure may be misleading).

4.9.2
The
Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) is a survey of public
experiences and perceptions of crime in Scotland. The 2014-15
survey is the fifth sweep of the current guise of the
SCJS,
with the first being conducted in 2008/09. The survey involves
interviews with adults (aged 16 or over) who live in private
residential addresses in Scotland.

4.9.3 Only certain categories of crime covered by the
SCJS
are directly comparable with police recorded crime statistics.
These categories are collectively referred to as comparable crime.
Comparable crime can be broken down into the following three crime
groups.