Stuff

A ComRes poll for the Independent tomorrow has topline voting intentions, with changes from their last poll, of CON 41%(+7), LAB 33%(-4), LDEM 16%(+1). In amongst the flurry of polls we’ve had over the last two months ComRes haven’t polled since mid-September, back before conference season began, so missed out on all of the Labour surge after their conference and the Conservative recover after theirs. The changes in this poll are across the whole of the party conference season and the non-election annoucement (one might well think this gives us a far better picture than pouncing on all the ups and downs in the last six weeks’ of polls. Maybe it does, but given the speculation over a possible general election polls during conference were inevitable this year).

The eight point lead is the largest enjoyed by the Conservatives in any poll since April, though since they started weighting by past vote ComRes have tended to produce some of the better poll findings for the Tories. It is also a good rating for the Lib Dems compared to their recent poor showings. It’s tempting to take these findings as a suggestion that a Lib Dem recovery would hurt Labour more than the Conservatives, I think it’s a bit early to conclude that yet though, ComRes tend to be nice to the Tories anyway and, not having seen any of the really poor showings for the Lib Dems in ComRes polls, we can’t really conclude this is a recovery from an slump that happened ‘offstage’ in the gap between ComRes polls. I don’t think we’ll know for sure till there is a new Lib Dem leader whose had a chance to make their mark.

Tim I don’t think that is true nationwide . In West Yorkshire and Loughborough for example the BNP have clearly been taking more votes from the Conservatives but it was certainly true in London in the 2006 locals .

If the ICM figures are right they still give Labour a lead and with a bit of tactical voting it won’t be that far short of a majority. I can’t see an election before October 2009 and I imagine there’ll be a vote-catching budget of some sort earlier that year. I still think a small Labour majority (low 20s like Major in ’92) is likely and if it’s no-overall with Labour in the lead the Liberals will be sorely tempted!