News from the Votemaster

Popular Vote Totals

If you are looking for the popular vote totals for all candidates (including third parties),
here is a link.

Exit Polls

The NY Times has the
exit poll data.
Obama barely won among men (49% to 48%), but strongly among women (56% to 43%),
overwhelmingly among blacks (95% to 5%),
and convincingly among Latinos (66% to 31%) and Asians (62% to 35%).
However, he lost among whites (43% to 55%) as Democrats normally do.
He did progressively worse with age, winning the 18-29 year-olds 66% to 31% but
losing seniors 52% to 46%. He swept every educational category as well as Catholics
and Jews but lost Protestants 54% to 45%. He won people living in big cities,
small cities, and suburbs, but lost in small towns and rural areas. One is
tempted to say McCain won in traditional 19th century America (what Sarah Palin
would call "real America"): older white Protestant men living in small towns.
Obama won everywhere else. The Republican Party is going to have to think long
and hard if it wants to hitch its wagon to this fading star while the Democrats
are going after younger, multicultural, urban voters.

State of the Senate

As Yogi Berra so aptly put it: "It ain't over 'till it's over."
Well, the battle for the Senate ain't over. The Oregonian now
projects
that state house speaker Jeff Merkley will defeat Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR) in their
Senate race. Merkley now leads by 4000 votes and most of the remaining votes are from
heavily Democratic Multnomah County.

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) leads challenger Al Franken by 570 votes
out of 2.5 million cast.
There will be a
recount, which
could take weeks according to Minnesota secretary of state Mark Richie.

Alaska has another Senate race whose winner is in doubt.
At present, Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) holds a 4000-vote lead over Anchorage mayor
Mark Begich. However, 4% of the precincts haven't reported yet and there are
70,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted. A Stevens victory could have national
implications, however, as Democrats will likely try to expel the convicted senator from the Senate
if he wins and Republicans would be forced to make a difficult vote on the
expulsion motion. If he is expelled, there will be a special election to fill the
seat and many people expect Sarah Palin to run and win, giving her four years
of national exposure before a possible 2012 run for the White House. Not all
Republicans are happy at seeing someone with such high unfavorables and who was
repeatedly mocked as a lightweight with expensive taste in designer clothing
becoming the de facto party leader.
Once you have acquired a bad public image, it is hard to shake it. Just ask President Quayle.

Finally, in Georgia, Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) beat Jim Martin(D) in the Senate
race there, but may not have gotten the requisite 50% of the vote, forcing a
runoff
there in December.

All in all, the Democrats still have some opportunities to raise their Senate
totals to the 57-58 seat range, but getting a filibuster-proof 60 now seems
out of the question unless Obama appoints to the cabinet one or more Republican senators from
states with Democratic governors.

State of the House

It ain't over here yet either.
While the Democrats failed to pick up their hoped for 30 seats, they did get more than 20
and will likely end up with 255-260 seats in the House. Nevertheless, a number of seats are
undecided. One of them is the CA-04 open seat being vacated by John Doolittle, who is under
investigation on various corruption charges.
Currently Tom McClintock (R) is leading Charlie Brown (D) by 451 votes,
but there are tens of thousands of absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted in this R+11 district.
In LA-04, there will be a runoff Dec. 6th between Paul Carmouche (D) and John Fleming (R).
In MD-01, Democrat Frank Kratovil is ahead of Republican Andy Harris by 915 votes,
but there are 25,000 absentee ballots yet to be counted.
In OH-15, Steve Stivers (R) is leading Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by 321 votes, so a recount is likely.
In VA-05, challenger Tom Perrillo (D) has a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode (R).
A recount is assured there. Finally, in WA-08, incumbent Dave Reichert (R) has a 1900-vote lead over
Internet darling Darcy Burner (D), but absentee ballots are still coming in and could change the result.
Swing State Project has
more.

Analysis of the Bradley Effect

A hot topic the entire year has been the so-called "Bradley effect,"
which hypothesizes that white people being polled will happily tell a pollster
that they will vote for a black person, but in the privacy of the voting
booth, don't do it. Finally we have real data to see whether that effect
exists and if so, how big it is.

Polling in elections where the outcome is certain in advance do not make
good test cases, so let us examine the major swing states: Colorado,
Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, and
Virginia. For each of these states, we looked at the final October/November
poll from the following major pollsters: ARG, Insider Advantage, Mason-Dixon,
Opinion Research, Quinnipiac University, Rasmussen, Research 2000, and
SurveyUSA. The polling data are given below.

State

Obama

McCain

Sum

Start

End

What?

Colorado

51.0

47.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

Colorado

52.0

43.0

Oct 8

Oct 12

Quinnipiac U.

Colorado

52.0

45.0

Oct 28

Oct 30

ARG

Colorado

53.0

45.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Colorado

49.0

44.0

Oct 28

Oct 29

Mason-Dixon

Colorado

53.0

45.0

Oct 26

Oct 26

Insider Advantage

Colorado

51.7

44.8

96.5

Average

Colorado

52.7

45.7

98.4

Average multiplied by 1.020

Colorado

52.5

45.9

98.4

Election 2008

Florida

49.0

50.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

Florida

50.0

47.0

Oct 31

Nov 3

SurveyUSA

Florida

47.0

45.0

Oct 27

Nov 2

Quinnipiac U.

Florida

49.0

45.0

Oct 13

Oct 15

Research 2000

Florida

50.0

46.0

Oct 29

Oct 31

ARG

Florida

51.0

47.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Florida

47.0

45.0

Oct 29

Oct 30

Mason-Dixon

Florida

48.0

47.0

Oct 22

Oct 22

Insider Advantage

Florida

48.9

46.5

95.4

Average

Florida

50.8

48.4

99.2

Average multiplied by 1.040

Florida

50.8

48.4

99.2

Election 2008

Indiana

46.0

49.0

Oct 28

Oct 29

Rasmussen

Indiana

47.0

47.0

Oct 27

Oct 30

SurveyUSA

Indiana

48.0

47.0

Oct 23

Oct 25

Research 2000

Indiana

48.0

48.0

Oct 28

Oct 31

ARG

Indiana

46.0

51.0

Oct 3

Oct 6

Opinion Research

Indiana

47.0

48.4

95.4

Average

Indiana

48.7

50.2

98.9

Average multiplied by 1.037

Indiana

49.9

49.0

98.9

Election 2008

Missouri

49.0

49.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

Missouri

48.0

47.0

Oct 20

Oct 23

Research 2000

Missouri

48.0

48.0

Oct 28

Oct 30

ARG

Missouri

48.0

50.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Missouri

46.0

47.0

Oct 29

Oct 30

Mason-Dixon

Missouri

47.0

50.0

Oct 29

Oct 29

Insider Advantage

Missouri

47.7

48.5

96.2

Average

Missouri

49.0

49.8

98.8

Average multiplied by 1.027

Missouri

49.3

49.5

98.8

Election 2008

Nevada

50.0

46.0

Oct 27

Oct 27

Rasmussen

Nevada

50.0

45.0

Oct 25

Oct 28

Research 2000

Nevada

52.0

45.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Nevada

47.0

43.0

Oct 28

Oct 29

Mason-Dixon

Nevada

47.0

47.0

Oct 19

Oct 19

Insider Advantage

Nevada

49.2

45.2

94.4

Average

Nevada

51.0

46.8

97.8

Average multiplied by 1.036

Nevada

55.1

42.7

97.8

Election 2008

New Mexico

54.0

44.0

Oct 28

Oct 28

Rasmussen

New Mexico

52.0

45.0

Oct 29

Oct 31

SurveyUSA

New Mexico

53.0

44.0

97.5

Average

New Mexico

53.6

45.0

98.6

Average multiplied by 1.011

New Mexico

56.8

41.8

98.6

Election 2008

North Carolina

49.0

50.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

North Carolina

48.0

49.0

Oct 30

Nov 2

SurveyUSA

North Carolina

47.0

45.0

Oct 28

Oct 30

Research 2000

North Carolina

49.0

48.0

Oct 31

Nov 3

ARG

North Carolina

52.0

46.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

North Carolina

46.0

49.0

Oct 29

Oct 30

Mason-Dixon

North Carolina

48.0

48.0

Oct 29

Oct 29

Insider Advantage

North Carolina

48.4

47.9

96.3

Average

North Carolina

50.0

49.4

99.4

Average multiplied by 1.032

North Carolina

49.8

49.6

99.4

Election 2008

Ohio

49.0

49.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

Ohio

48.0

46.0

Oct 30

Nov 2

SurveyUSA

Ohio

50.0

43.0

Oct 27

Nov 2

Quinnipiac U.

Ohio

48.0

45.0

Oct 4

Oct 7

ARG

Ohio

51.0

47.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Ohio

45.0

47.0

Oct 29

Oct 30

Mason-Dixon

Ohio

52.0

42.0

Oct 22

Oct 22

Insider Advantage

Ohio

49.0

45.6

94.6

Average

Ohio

51.0

47.4

98.4

Average multiplied by 1.040

Ohio

51.4

47.0

98.4

Election 2008

Virginia

51.0

47.0

Nov 2

Nov 2

Rasmussen

Virginia

50.0

46.0

Oct 30

Nov 1

SurveyUSA

Virginia

51.0

47.0

Oct 31

Nov 3

ARG

Virginia

53.0

44.0

Oct 23

Oct 28

Opinion Research

Virginia

47.0

44.0

Oct 29

Oct 30

Mason-Dixon

Virginia

50.4

45.6

96.0

Average

Virginia

52.0

47.1

99.1

Average multiplied by 1.032

Virginia

51.8

47.3

99.1

Election 2008

For each state, the (unweighted) average of all the polls listed was computed,
as shown on the lines marked "Average."
These numbers cannot be compared directly to the final results due to the undecideds. To make this comparison possible, the ratio of the total Obama+McCain
vote divided by the Obama+McCain polling numbers was computed for each state.
For example, in Colorado, the Obama plus McCain poll averages
add up to 96.5% while the actual vote totals add up to 98.4%.
Thus the scale factor is 98.4/96.5 = 1.020. The Colorado polls were then
multiplied by 1.020 so they added up to 98.4%, just as the actual vote did.
These scaled polls are given on the lines labeled "Average multiplied by x."
These numbers can be directly compared to the election results since they
add up to the same thing.

In Colorado, for example, the scaled poll predicted an Obama vote of
52.7% and a McCain vote of 45.9%. The candidates got 52.5% and 45.9%,
respectively. Thus the polls were remarkably close to the actual vote and there is not a hint
of Obama polling well but doing badly on election day.

Now look at the eight other swing states. In Florida the pollsters were
right on the money. In Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and
Virginia they were off by a maximum of 1.2% for Obama. In the other two
states, Nevada and New Mexico, the polls for Obama were off by
4.1%, which is within the margin of error. In both cases Obama did
better than predicted, so clearly there is no Bradley effect here.
If nothing else, any future discussions of the "Bradley effect" can be quickly ended with the
statement: "It didn't exist in 2008."

Comparison of the Pollsters

There are various ways to compare the pollsters. Professional statisticians look to see
if the actual results were within the bracketed range predicted by the pollster. For
example, if a pollster predicted Obama 51% and McCain 49% with a 3% margin of error and the
final result was McCain 51% and Obama 49%, the pollster would claim to have gotten it right
because Obama fell within the predicted range of 48% to 54% and McCain fell into the predicted
range of 46% to 52%. Laymen would probably say the pollster got it wrong--because they don't
understand what the prediction really is. To keep it simple, let us use the second approach
and see which pollsters predicted which states right. Here are the data.

Pollster

CO

FL

IN

MO

NV

NM

NC

OH

VA

Rt/Tot

Pct

ARG

Yes

Yes

Tie

Tie

-

-

Yes

Yes

Yes

5/5

100%

Insider Advantage

Yes

Yes

-

Yes

Tie

-

Tie

Yes

-

4/4

100%

Quinnipiac U.

Yes

Yes

-

-

-

-

-

Yes

-

3/3

100%

Opinion Research

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

-

Yes

Yes

Yes

7/8

88%

SurveyUSA

-

Yes

Tie

-

-

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

4/5

80%

Research 2000

-

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

-

Yes

-

-

4/5

80%

Mason-Dixon

Yes

Yes

-

-

Yes

-

No

No

Yes

4/6

67%

Rasmussen

Yes

No

No

-

Yes

Yes

No

-

Yes

4/7

57%

In some cases the pollster predicted a tie, that is, said it was too close to call.
Let us remove those from the sample. In that case the scores for these pollsters are given
in the last two columns. If you want to play with the data yourself, here they are
.csv format.

McCain-Palin Infighting Is Leaking Out

It is traditional in losing campaigns for everyone to blame everyone else, but the finger
pointing in the McCain/Palin campaign is rapidly becoming
public.
The McCain people blame Palin for her outrageous shopping habits and her unwillingness to
shut up and take orders. The Palin people counter with the point that the RNC told Palin to
go buy some nice clothes and that if they had not tried to micromanage her, she would have been
much more effective. McCain's race is run; he might get reelected to the Senate once more
(although he will have a tough race against Arizona's governor Janet Napolitano in 2010), but
that's about it. Palin, in contrast, has a decent shot at becoming the de facto leader of a
new generation of Republicans and is very concerned about her public image and doesn't
want to be the scapegoat for the Republican loss on Tuesday.

Results on Propositions

In addition to electing candidates for various offices, voters on Tuesday
made decisions
on numerous propositions on hot-button items.
In South Dakota, voters refused to ban abortions.
In Colorado, they also refused to define a fertilized egg as a full-blown human being with
all the rights afforded by state and federal law (a consequence of which would be to make a
doctor performing an abortion guilty of first-degree murder and the woman getting the abortion an
accomplice). In California, Proposition 4, which would have prevented teenage girls from getting
abortions until their parents were notified narrowly trailed, but the results are not definitive yet.

Proposition 8, which bans same-sex marriage passed in California, along with similar bans in
Florida and Arizona. Massachusetts voters decriminalized marijuana and Michigan voters voted to
allow it for medical purposes. Missouri voters made English the official state language.
And California passed a proposition mandating better treatment of farm animals.

Collection of Front Pages

Unhappy About the Election and Want to Leave the Country?

If you are unhappy about the election results and want to leave the country
and are interesting in getting a Masters Degree in Computer Systems, check out
this English-language program in
Parallel and Distributed Systems
in Amsterdam
at the Vrije Universiteit, one of the top private universities in Europe.
In fact, even if you are happy about the results, it might be of interest.

If you like this Website, tell your friends. You can also share by clicking this button