NOAA
ISSUES 2004 U.S. SPRING OUTLOOK;
DROUGHT CONCERNS CONTINUE IN PARTS OF THE WEST,
LOWERED RISK OF FLOODING ACROSS COUNTRY

March
19, 2004 — Following a highly variable winter, scientists from the
NOAA National Weather Service expect
drought concerns to continue in parts of the West, while less snow and
warmer conditions in the upper Midwest foretell a lower than normal risk
of snowmelt flooding this year. The predictions were made at a news conference
held in Washington, D.C. today. (Click NOAA image for larger view
of NOAA spring 2004 precipitation outlook. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

Expected
Impacts April-June:
“There is neither an El
Niño nor La Niña in place; therefore, we expect a typical
level of springtime variability in temperature and precipitation to occur
in many areas of the nation,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad
C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and
atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Specifically, NOAA
meteorologists predict an enhanced likelihood for below-normal temperatures
in the northern Great Plains and above-normal temperatures in Alaska,
the Southwest and parts of the South for April through June. Above normal
precipitation is likely in the far Northwest and below normal likely in
Texas, parts of surrounding states and most of Louisiana and Florida.”

This
spring NOAA scientists also expect long term precipitation deficits to
decrease in parts of the northern and central Great Plains, while the
hydrological drought or water supply deficits are predicted to persist
over many areas in the West, especially in much of Arizona and New Mexico.
Dry soils from up to five dry years will absorb snowmelt runoff and reduce
recharge of reservoirs, many of which are well below normal levels as
a result of this multi-year drought. (Click NOAA image for larger
view of NOAA spring 2004 temperature outlook. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

Snowpack
and snow water content have been running close to normal during this winter
snow season in the Great Basin and Northwest, but continued improvement
in water supplies throughout the West depends largely on snowfall continuing
into spring. In many cases, the meltwater will not be enough to replenish
depleted reservoirs.

Lowered
Spring Flood Potential:
In contrast to the gloomy water supply outlook in the West, limited snow
cover both in the West and the northern tier states (near normal in many
areas) makes spring snowmelt flooding less likely. There, are, however,
a few areas of concern: A deep snow cover in northeastern Montana raises
concern of major flooding along the Milk River. (Click NOAA image
for larger view of NOAA spring 2004 flood risk. Please credit “NOAA.”)

As much as
10 inches of water is stored in the snowpack in northern Wisconsin and
Michigan’s upper peninsula, leaving the area at risk for flooding
if warm temperatures accompany rain. Finally, thick ice on rivers in northern
New York and New England could lead to ice jam flood problems.

Fire
Weather Outlook:
Overall, the 2004 fire season is expected to be near normal in terms of
the expected number of fires and acres burned. However, according to the
National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho, which issues the annual
National Wildland Fire Outlook, much of the interior West, and particularly
the Southwest, has above normal fire potential due to the long-term drought
conditions. Drought-stressed and/or insect-damaged vegetation continues
to increase in the West, leading to a greater potential for large, destructive
wildfires at middle to high elevations.

“Accurate
weather forecasts are critical to successful suppression of wildfires
and can mean life or death for firefighters,” said retired Air Force
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson,
director of the NOAA National Weather Service. “Particularly in
the interior West and Southwest, where long-term drought conditions increase
fire danger, the NOAA National Weather Service will provide meteorological
support to wildland fire management agencies to protect property, and
especially, lives.”

Stage
Set for Spring:NOAA
officials said that with the tropical Pacific Ocean featuring neither
El Niño nor La Niña during this past winter, the jet stream
and its associated weather conditions were highly variable. Yet, the 2003-2004
winter weather pattern did, in fact, improve drought conditions in many
locations. Nevertheless, NOAA cautions that improvement does not mean
total relief. (Click NOAA image for larger view of NOAA drought
outlook through June 2004. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

As it stands
today, NOAA’s
U.S. Drought Monitor has very limited drought depicted east of the
Mississippi River. However, it is another story for many places in the
West.

“Fifty
percent of U.S. states west of the Mississippi River are in some phase
of dryness or drought, with the worst occurring in parts of Arizona, New
Mexico, Idaho and Montana,” said Johnson. “The series of winter
storms seen in the Rockies since last autumn have not made up for the
substantial precipitation deficits that extend back four or five years.
Snowpack in the region this spring is generally improved from last year,
providing hope for limited water supply improvements and better prospects
for farmers and ranchers.” (Click NOAA image for larger
view of drought monitor as of March 16, 2004. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

“Despite
periods of record cold and warmth, as a whole, the 2003-2004 winter season
(December through February) will go down in the record books as near average
for the nation,” said Tom
Karl, director of the NOAA
National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. “The Eastern
U.S. was cooler than average while warmer than average conditions affected
much of the rest of the country. While there were periods of unusually
heavy rain and snow in parts of the country, including above average precipitation
in some parts of the West, precipitation was near average for the contiguous
U.S.” (Click NOAA image for larger view of average jetstream
positions during the winter of 2003-2004. Click
here for high resolution version, which is a large file. Please credit
“NOAA.”)

NOAA’s Spring Outlook is a consolidated effort of the NOAA National
Weather Service and NOAA National Climatic Data Center. The National Weather
Service (including the Climate
Prediction Center and the Hydrologic
Services Program) is the primary source of weather, drought and climate
information, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories.

The NOAA
National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood
warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and
property and enhance the national economy. The NOAA National Climatic
Data Center is the nation’s primary source of historical meteorological
and climate data.

NOAA is dedicated
to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction
and research of weather and climate-related events and providing environmental
stewardship of the nationís coastal and marine resources. NOAA is part
of the U.S. Department of Commerce.