Commentary and analysis on markets, personal finance, and wealth building from a contrarian perspective. "I believe in the discipline of mastering the best that other people have ever figured out. I don’t believe in just sitting there and trying to dream it up all yourself. Nobody’s that smart."
— Charlie Munger

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Sunday, May 21, 2017

Entitlements to overwhelm Federal budget

This chart is from 2015. The right side of this chart is going to expand relentlessly from now on. Every day, 10,000 people go on Medicare. Medicare costs the government over $1,000 a month for each person enrolled. This inflow of eligible recipients is not going to stop for the next 20 years.Now look at the bottom of the chart: Non-defense Discretionary. It was 16% in 2015, but you can be sure that it is closer to 14% today. This is the political battlefield in Washington: available loot. The rest of the loot is spoken for already. Politics cannot change the rest of the budget. Politics today, in terms of federal spending, is now down to under 14% of the budget, and it is probably heading toward 10% by 2022, when a new President will be in power.Sometime before the 20’s are over, there will be no more discretionary slice of the budgetary pie. At that point, there is going to be a guerilla war in Washington. It will be a battle over the size of the slices of pie. Political voting blocs that thought the size of their slice was guaranteed will find that it isn’t.

I have gone even further than the author of the linked article. I have said that the entitlement/pension shortfall will lead to an eventual dollar crisis and eventual political dissolution of the United States. It will not matter who you vote for the math is so bad now that it can not be fixed.

This will not happen in the next year or two but the pressure is building just like the pressure is building in the volcano in Yellowstone eventually it is going to blow up.

I hope you understand this and are doing what you can to protect yourself and your family.