The reason to own this is if you believe the US housing market is normalizing and will show more growth, the Canadian housing market continues to show good growth along with demand from Asia. He sees potential for these companies to show more growth. The Cdn$ is dropping, which makes the price of lumber more attractive. There is potential for rising dividends. A good place to be.

He likes the lumber industry overall, but prefers Western Forest Products (WEF-T) or Interfor Corp (IFP-T). This is one of the largest Canadian lumber producers with operations in BC, Alberta as well as the US south. Conservatively run business and a strong balance sheet. There is perhaps more upside and more chance of an M&A activity in some of the smaller capitalization lumber companies,. This also has some pulp exposure.

Really likes the company. He doesn’t do a lot of resource stocks, but this is a solid company, one of the best in the sector. It is safer than others in the sector. The sector is going to be okay. It is cheap enough that you can still make money after the bounce. As a sector play you don’t get much better than this one.

Thinks the whole sector is surprisingly positive, but he doesn’t know why. When he looks at lumber over the long term, it is one of the few commodities that is basing. There is no sign of a top with WFT-T. He thinks it will go surprisingly higher.

The largest lumber stock and so the safest. The most advanced mills, so will help with operating costs. Diversified geographically in North America. Stand to generate significant cash flow when lumber prices go up, but could go sideways for a while.

Had a nice run last year and early this year. Lumber is seasonally weak over the summer, and they try to get things going before the winter comes on. We are probably still seeing signs in the US that housing starts are okay. This is probably okay.

You can expect another leg up in US housing. Lumber is still oversupplied right now. He doesn’t own any of them right now. Likes US housing, but prefers playing through US financials. He has TCN-T and HD-N also.

Looking at the dollar weighted trading price to see where most volume occurs, it is $45 even. It bounced off there a few days ago. The next support level is around $41. He would use $45 as a support level and would continue to Hold the stock right now.

He got out too early. There is a supply issue in the US. They bought 65K board feet of lumber in 2005 and then it dropped to 40k a couple of years later. There were problems in Quebec and Vancouver so now supply is short. If American demand goes up there is simply just not enough supply. He is not into the forest stocks because there are so many empty houses in the US right now.

Falling Cdn$ has been a tailwind for all the lumber companies. The bigger story is that we are in a slow improving housing market in the US. He doesn’t expect it to boom, but just generally get better. Supply is still relatively restrained in North America. There has been lots of money made already and he would encourage you to identify an exit price in the event these things roll over.

Has good earnings momentum behind it and if housing continues to be very good then there will be more for 2014. The bad news is that when you look at forest products, they are always the cheapest when they are expensive. You have to look at price to book. You should sell them when price to book is too high. It is early but soon you should he taking your profits.

Just announced a 2-for-1 stock split. Feels we are in a very positive timber cycle right now, particularly with US housing beginning to pick up. These cycles tend to go for years. You could wait for a pullback, but over the next few years, timber stocks in general are going to do very well.

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