SEATTLE – The MMA community has been buzzing about this event since the fight card started filling up, and now that it’s finally here – and I’m here to see it – I have to admit it that it kind of feels like an early Christmas present.

As many have said over the last few weeks, this is the best line-up the UFC has been able to deliver this year. Even though the event lost a pair of fights in the two weeks prior to today, this main card has remained intact, and it features a quartet of compelling match-ups that stand very little chance of disappointing.

With this card being broadcast on FOX – with prelims on FX, and both on Sportsnet throughout Canada – the festivities get underway earlier than normal.

Let me say this right here, right now: considering I have to be back at the ferry terminal bright and early Sunday morning, I’m pretty stoked about the early start time, and an anticipated pre-9pm end time.

This should be a terrific fight card.

These are the Punch Drunk Predictions

Benson Henderson vs. Nathan Diaz

The champ needs a definitive performance to solidify his place at the top of the lightweight division, and though I’m intrigued by Diaz’s development, all signs point to Henderson earning a dominant victory in this one.

While Diaz has been great over his last three, he’s beaten a faded star (Gomi), a fighter who was crazy enough to stand with him throughout (Cerrone), and a gritty veteran (Miller) who just is athletic enough to steamroll his way inside. Henderson doesn’t fit any of those descriptions.

I see this playing out in a similar fashion to Henderson’s trucking of Clay Guida, where “The Carpenter” admirably tried to stave off the now champion’s advances to no avail. Henderson is too big, too strong, and too athletic for Diaz, a bigger, better version of the last three lightweights who have beaten him. He’s nearly impossible to finish though, so Henderson’s string of trips to the scorecards should continue.

Prediction: Benson Henderson by Unanimous Decision

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Alexander Gustafsson

I really think youth will be served in this one. While Rua isn’t that old (he’s 31), the former Pride standout and UFC light heavyweight champion has been exchanging punches with the best of the best for the better part of a decade, and it appears to be taking its toll on him.

Will Gustafsson be able to put him away? I have my doubts. After all, Rua ate some monstrous shots from Dan Henderson – and even a few from Brandon Vera. But Gustafsson doesn’t need a finish. All he needs to do is fight the way he’s fought over his last five, working behind his hands, capitalizing on mistakes, and staying out of danger.

The young Swede has looked better in each of those contests, and I expect this to be his best performance to date. A convincing win over Rua could be enough to convince the UFC brass that he should be next in line for a title shot.

Prediction: Alexander Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision

BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald

Penn looks tremendous. He’s saying all the right things, and he’s saying them with conviction. He is one of the best talents to ever grace the Octagon, and a true legend in the sport.

None of those things are going to help him here.

MacDonald is the most impressive talent I have seen emerge in a number of years. His tremendous skills inside the cage are only trumped by his intense focus and drive to reach his goals, and as much as Penn is ready to turn back the clock, I still don’t think it’s enough to deal with the ferocious welterweight monster that is Rory MacDonald.

Look for this to be a coming out party for the kid from Kelowna.

Prediction: Rory MacDonald by TKO, Round 2

Mike Swick vs. Matt Brown

Swick’s return in August was one of the best stories in a long time, capped by a Knockout of the Night win. After going 910 days between his loss to Paulo Thiago and his win over DaMarques Johnson, the Ultimate Fighter Season 1 alum makes a quick return to the cage against the surging Brown, and should make it two in a row.

Brown is a durable veteran with a well-rounded skill set and the ability to finish with his striking and his submission game. The problem – as I see it – is that he’s never been able to take the next step, and I don’t see that changing here.

Brown is hittable and all too willing to give one to get one. Against a guy like Swick, all it takes is for him to land one. Now that he’s shaken off 910 days worth of ring rust, his hand speed should be back to where it was before, and that’s bad news for Brown.

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