sanctuary

Monday, October 24, 2016

Last week I attended a
seminar on urban heat islands, the speaker being a staff scientist
with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Mitigation strategies
to lower temperatures in urban regions will become increasingly
important as half the world's population now lives in cities of one
size or another and climate change is raising global temperatures.
This is what we call facts. We can verify these facts, anyone can for
that matter.

Can't catch my breath

Even though 2016 is not
unique, it does seem that we have a higher collection of world
leaders at the present time that run the gamut from sociopath, to
gangster to merely authoritarian. Democratic values are not winning
the popularity contest at the moment.

You would have to be half
mad to dream me up.

(Mad Hatter, Alice in
Wonderland)

In the United States Donald
Trump, the profoundly ignorant, deeply narcissistic and repulsive
man-child, for the past year or so, has overwhelmed our political and
cultural lives, which in and of itself says something about our
present (ideally short-lived) dysfunction.

In a sort of “best of all
possible worlds,” the Donald will vanish into the trash can of
history along with the White People's Cult, formerly known as the
Republican party. But you would have to be “half mad” to believe
it's going to be that easy.

Now, to resume our
discussion on urban heat islands.... but first make sure you vote and
overwhelm ignorance.

Monday, October 17, 2016

The current clown scare is
a result of two rising forces in the U.S: social media, and a fear of
otherness, whether it arrives in a white Mercedes or a refugee boat.

(Robert Bartholomew,
sociologist, Botany College, New Zealand)

I was about to write
something on capitalism and “geocide” but a colleague emailed me
an interesting article and survey on climate change, not about the
science of global warming but about how we “think” about it—or
not. Then I came across a video, both disturbing and depressing, but
tied indirectly to climate change.

The political spectacle

Reporters for the NYT
followed Donald Trump for a year at his various presidential rallies
throughout the United States. While this video is about the 2016
election, it could be a rally of a particular kind you might attend
in far to many countries today. In fact, it conjures up scenes from
the early 1930s in Europe.

Making America Really,
Really Not So Great Again

Climate and beliefs

The survey shows that (1)
overall opinions about climate are split along (not surprisingly to
many) partisan lines and have hardly changed at all, (2) scientific
knowledge does not change the opinions of climate deniers, (3) the
increase of scientific “literacy” appears to change the views of
Democrats but not Republicans, (4) climate beliefs are more about
“tribal” beliefs, (5) most people have no organized ideology and
firm opinion on issues, (6) elite views are the most important
operator on public opinion, (7) tribal attachment is the most
important influence not issue attachment and (8) BUT, regardless of
where one falls on the political spectrum, everyone likes renewable
energy such as wind and solar. Go to Climate Survey to read the details.

Nature, nurture and
genopolitics

Two to three years ago the
word Genopolitics appeared with increasing frequency. Did genes
influence political behavior? Could genetics tell us whether or not
we would be on the Left or Right politically? Would it be easier to
gauge if we were inclined to be Liberal or Conservative?

There was some interesting
scientific research going on. Neuroscience had made some remarkable
breakthrough in the last ten years or so and several tantalizing
ideas spread beyond brain research. Certainly some political
scientists thought they could be nearing the point where predictable
patterns of behavior might be understood in light of what
neuro-science had uncovered.

We know a good deal, for
example, about how hormones and neurotransmitters in our bodies
influence behavior. The levels of serotonin in our system might
affect our self confidence and sense of worth and intensity of
aggression. Some researchers believe that the release of oxytocin,
the “cuddle hormone,” might have something to do with increases
in generosity and trust.

The problem is that human
behavior is complicated and not easy to describe on a flow chart.
Some people have a genetic predisposition to alcoholism but never
become alcoholics because of environmental factors. A psychiatrist
and well respected authority on serial killers, in the course of his
research, discovered he himself had the genetic makeup of a sociopath
but it was the environmental factor (home life, family) that
triggered a full blown monster. At some point there is a good chance
we will get beyond merely uncovering “interesting” connections in
human behavior and be able to identify cause and effect and replicate
it over and over again.

Nevertheless, understanding
human behavior, it seems to me, cannot be merely left to brain
researchers and various policy wonks but all of us … if we want to
succeed. If as this particular climate survey indicates, the one
thing we all seem to agree upon is the value of renewable energy.
Then what ought we to be doing, if fifty percent of us believe
climate change is an existential threat to all of us? Who is
thwarting the effort?

While Clinton's emails and
Trumps' behavior may be the current American distraction (along with
scary clowns), on November 9, 2016, we will be back to dealing with
human behavior, which needs some serious hormonal alteration and
rewiring.

Monday, October 10, 2016

The most recent issue of
Nature Conservancy magazine is devoted to climate change in the U.S.
One of the articles discusses the varied strategies taking place
across the United States, which often reflects the makeup of the
state be it politically, economically, socially and so forth. For
example, in Iowa more than one-quarter of greenhouse gas emissions
comes from agriculture. The focus here is educating farmers on soil
management and fertilizer reduction and working closely with the
state's “decision makers.”

In New York state the
emphasis is on overhauling the electrical grid system, decentralizing
power generation and encouraging more solar and wind energy. In
Louisiana reforestation is seen as an important goal, while in
Libertarian-inclined New Hampshire energy independence,
self-sufficiency and clean energy is attractive across the political
spectrum.

The point of all these
examples is that there are many different KNOWN strategies to
confront climate change, the overriding goal being to keep global
temperatures under 2 degrees Celsius. Something like one-third of
greenhouse gas emission reductions can be accomplished by the
protection and restoration of nature. Ultimately, the strategy for
global success is both mitigation and adaptation to climate change
and a lot of creative thinking.

What ought not to be
considered in the U.S. and across the globe is the increase of fossil
fuel production, coal in particular. In the recent vice-presidential
“debate,” nominee Mike Pence spoke about the unemployed coal
miners and that his party would restore coal production and
presumably put the miners back to work.

It's almost irrelevant
whether it is ignorance or merely electioneering blather, but coal
production needs to vanish, much, much sooner than later. Mountain
top restoration of coal mines, among other things, is a better
acknowledgment of 21st century reality.

What coal miners and others
need is the unvarnished truth about economic change, along with
programs that actually provide serious retraining, financial support
and a first world education system for their children. Once again,
the electorate has considerable responsibility in making this happen,
and not merely complaining about what is not happening. Yes, the
automobile put the buggy whip manufacturers out of business.

Cigarettes don't cause
cancer

A lot of folks remember the
iconic photograph of cigarette executives in 1994 raising their hands
before a Congressional committee promising to tell the truth about
their product. Well, that “truth” proved elusive back then, but
in the minds of many people the cigarette industry is nothing more
than a criminal enterprise, which is apparently still thriving today
in many third world countries.

Yes I too watched the
presidential “debate” last night. Clearly Donald Trump and
depressingly a large number of his supporters prefer the dankness of
the sewer rather than fresh air and blue skies. Hillary Clinton
managed to utter the wordsClimate Change at the very end of the
evening when an audience member asked a question about energy. While
my heart is well to the left of Clinton my head says more than ever
she deserves my support. That's where the organizing can take place,
in a world where climate change must take center stage.

Monday, October 03, 2016

(Sir Robert Watson, former
chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

The Arctic is a principal,
global driver of the climate system and is undergoing an
unprecedented rate of change with consequences far beyond its
boundaries.

(David Grimes, President
of World Meteorological Organization)

So the American voter wants
change?

Possibly one of the world's
largest ice avalanches, which contained some 100 million cubic meters
of ice and rock, occurred in western Tibet this past July.
Glaciologists are not yet certain why an entire “glacier tongue”
would collapse so quickly and violently. The glaciers of Central and
South Asia, including Tibet, have the largest reserves of glacier ice
outside of Antarctica, Greenland and Canada.

As mentioned previously, an
international climate goal is to keep temperature rise under 2
degrees Celsius. The current reality is, however, that the Arctic,
which makes up 4 percent of the earth's surface has already risen
some 4 degrees Celsius. Climate scientists believe
that if we don't take far more serious measures, temperatures will
certainly rise to 1.5 degrees C by 2030 and quite conceivably 2
degrees C by 2050.

Yes, stuff could happen—in
our lifetime. Permafrost could melt in the tundra (where it used to
be cold all the time) releasing more carbon dioxide—and
methane—making what we call feedback loops an unpleasant reality.
Ocean currents could change and weather patterns might begin to vary
a lot, with extreme weather events becoming the new reality.

This time you might want to
stop living in flood plains and do not expect the government to bail
you out citizen. Massive die offs of plant and animal life could
occur, along with water wars, forced migration of millions of people across the globe,
famines and no more exotic vacations for the privileged and the
wealthy … get the idea?

My fellow Americans,
ignorance is not bliss, right here in “River City”

Watching the recent
presidential debate, I was surprised by the amount of revulsion I
felt toward Donald Trump, in my opinion the most unqualified
presidential candidate in modern history, but I do not consider him
merely an ignorant, narcissistic carnival barker. History offers far
too many examples of seeming buffoons and charlatans seducing the
citizenry, taking power and then wreaking havoc.

We are being told by
assorted pundits that the demographic group designated “millennials,”
some 75 million souls, ages 18 to 34 dislike or are uneasy about
voting for Hillary Clinton and she could lose the election if she
does not get their support.

If you are a 34 year old
millennial right now, in 2050 you will be 68 years old and some of
you will presumably have children and grandchildren. If you are 25
years old you will be only 59 in 2050. Donald, Hillary and a great
many of us will be long gone 34 years from now.

I'm doing my best to
definitely forget about Jill Stein and Gary Johnson, the nominees for
the Green Party and the Libertarian Party. It is a wasted protest
vote. Jill Stein appears to live in a world of illusion and seems to
have little understanding of political reality, how the political
system actually works and how people actually make decisions.

Then there is Gary Johnson,
a seemingly nice guy who needs to brush up on world events before
running for the presidency of the United States. But perhaps even
more important in a diverse, continental sized country with more than
300 million people, libertarian, free market claptrap is the last
thing we need in a world with climate change, demographic increases,
global trade, nuclear weapons and a host of grown up issues requiring
collective action.

Wishing is hardly enough

My personal wish list
includes such things as universal health care, the repeal of
Citizen's United, national gun legislation that reflects a 21st
century world, criminal justice reform, reducing livestock farming (a global warming
disaster), free college education, a genuine progressive income tax,
intelligent cuts in the bloated defense budget, increasing funding
for our national parks (one of the greatest public policy successes
in our history), a large scale infrastructure program and above all,
an actual commitment to fighting climate change.

I'm going to vote for
Hillary Clinton without reservation, not because she ignites my
passion or guarantees my wish list, but because she is capable of the
“change” so many Americans claim that they want.Of course the
change comes when we who profess the need for that change actually
organize, educate and vote at all levels all the time over the long
term.

Finally, there is the
definition of what “change” means. I have a pretty good idea of
what Donald Trump's most passionate supporters mean by change.

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About Me

"We reached the old wolf in time to watch a fierce green fire dying in her eyes. I realized then, and have known ever since, that there was something new to me in those eyes--something known only to her and to the mountains." (Aldo Leopold, "Thinking Like a Mountain")
"We are the rich. We own America. We got it, God knows how, but we intend to keep it." (Frederick Townsend Martin, 19th century plutocrat)