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Thursday, 31 January 2013

NDP vote in the 2011 election, continued

Last time, we looked at the greatest gains in support for NDP among various segments of Ontario's voters for the 2011 election. This time we get to be the bad news bear and look at their biggest drops in support. The results are not exactly what one might expect.

Remember, we are using basic correlations (CORREL) data, the number-cruncher caveman's club, and there are a few issues with ages represented in the data: the people the census data describe are now five years older. But let's have a look anyway. Scroll down to get past the rather messy numbers.

Demographic Name

Difference in r (Rest of Ontario only)

Average value of owned dwelling ($)

-0.13

Apartments, five+ storeys

-0.13

Total Pop, field of study: Social and behavioural sciences and law

-0.13

Labour 15 and over: E - Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion

-0.11

Number of rented dwellings

-0.11

Females % of the population aged 15 and over

-0.11

Education 35 to 64: University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor's level or above

-0.11

Education 15 and over: University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor's level or above

Education 15 to 24: University certificate, diploma or degree at bachelor's level or above

-0.10

Males % of the population aged 15 and over

-0.09

Median earnings - Persons 15 years and over who worked full year, full time ($) (113)

-0.09

Pop 15 and over, worked in: English, French and non-official language

-0.09

What the numbers mean

It looks like the NDP took a big hit, compared to 2007, among people with high-value homeowners. This makes sense: besides the usual explanation of the wealthy not being much fond of the NDP's flavour of economic policy, if you are riding high on the housing bubble that many argue we are in, you are probably not very receptive to calls to fix the economy. "Huh? It's working fine for me! Don't mess with it! "

A corresponding drop in support is found here among people with full time jobs and high (median) earnings.

The next one was surprising though. High-rise apartment dwellers found the NDP's message to be lacking. My theory, having lived in a high rise apartment once or twice, is that a lot of the Liberals' visible minority and immigrant constituency is to be found in this demographic.

Interesting is to note a hit among government workers, teachers and social scientists. Is this the effect McGuinty, the self-proclaimed "Education Premier", had on the race? Then again, these people had jobs in this field in 2006. They are likely on some kind of tenure track or secure, long-held position, and didn't really want to hear much about the NDP's concerns about the plight of young (non) workers.

"Rented dwellings" and "Public transit" are curious categories to find here. Has the NDP gone carpool-friendly at the expense of the man on the streetcar?

What is going on with all the categories of well-educated people here? Didn't we see last time that young people, probably the young unemployed, were heeding Horwath's message? My guess is that a good part of the young graduates of 2006, now in their late 20s, have already moved on and made good, and don't really want to hear about opening up new slots.

Likewise, older, college-educated people aren't apparently receptive to this kind of message either. And of course, may of them may simply find that the Liberals are more attuned to the needs of the industries where they've found success -- the Liberals apparently promising labour peace and the status quo in art and culture subsidies.

I'd be surprised not to find Finance here, except that these are the biggest drops between 2007 and 2011. If finance was already poorly represented in the NDP's coalition, they wouldn't show up as people leaving the ship here.

Interesting to note a bigger drop among females than males. I pointed out anecdotally how the current post-crisis economy may be working for them. Is there a "glass floor", holding young women up above their unemployed male counterparts, as well as the "glass ceiling" we're used to reading about in the Globe and Mail?

A final note, a curious drop among consensus-predisposed Japanese. Perhaps the NDP would like to join me for sushi, saying itadakimasu!