GBP: UK expected to bottom of EU growth league in 2020

by Alexander Fordham on 9th November 2018

With no economic data releases from the UK, attention turned to the European Commission forecasts which included growth expectations for the next couple of years. The UK is expected to be joint bottom next year with Italy, while by 2020 it will be the slowest performing economy in the eurozone. Such predictions are necessarily speculative, but it is faintly worrying all the same.

Other notable aspects include UK unemployment, which is expected to rise, although inflation is forecast to ease. This is in part because of the impact of sterling’s depreciation since 2016. Still, the fact remains that this is all speculation and a lot can happen between now and 2020.

Today is extremely busy for UK economic data, with the GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2018 being the highlight. The markets are expecting a year-on-year figure of 1.5% from 1.2% in the previous quarter, while on a monthly basis, a figure of 0.6% from 0.4% the previous period is expected. We will also see balance of trade, industrial and manufacturing production, and construction output figures for September.

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