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Bapu , The Fly In The Congress Ointment !

On July 21,Shankersinh Vaghela, leader of the Congress
opposition in the Vidhan Sabha quit the party to park himself in ‘no-man’s
land’ creating heartaches and headaches in the political landscape of Gujarat. Heartache
for the Congress, headache for the BJP and neither one knows for sure, which
way he will turn. Not even to this day.

“Vinash kale viprit buddhi(wisdom deserts when bad times are in
the offing) he remarked at a convention’ organized to mark his 77th birthday,
the venue where he announced his ‘quit Congress’ decision. The man was on the
mark.

The departure of Vaghela marks a major setback for the
Congress which was last elected to power in the state over three decades ago. If
it was hoping to make a fight of it in the ensuing polls later this year, the
efforts have suffered a body blow though the full impact of the loss is yet to
unfold.

Congress chief spokesperson, Randeep Surjewala was at pains to
point out that Vaghela had walked out on
his own and not been ousted. What he could
not say was that the feisty Gujarat politician was pushed to a point where he
had no option but to walk out for his own political survival.

Vaghela had been upset with the Congress top brass over the
rampant infighting within the state party set up and the indecisive nature of
decision making at the national level. He was credited with the view that like
it did in Punjab, the party should announce it’s chief ministerial nominee in
advance as well as clear the list of legislators to avoid last mile hiccups. With
the party top brass reluctant to do so and state party chief Bharatsinh
Solanki, himself an aspirant seeking to push Vaghela to the sidelines, Bapu as
he is popularly known finally threw in the towel .

“This is the second time that I have become a victim of
intra-party conspiracy. First it was the BJP now it is the Congress. I had told
Soniaji when I went to meet her that I would not break her faith. I may
not remain with the party for long but I will not go anywhere. I am not joining
the BJP”, he said. He had also told Rahul Gandhi that there was a conspiracy to
get him expelled from the party.

He has made it clear that he would quit as legislator after the
Rajya Sabha election slated for August 8. ”I am a free bird now”, he told this
correspondent.

The decision of Vaghela to park himself in political ‘no-party’s
land’ at the moment is causing greater discomfort to both the Congress and the
BJP. Even as his convention was in progress the Congress core committee of the
party was meeting in Ahmedabad, hanging on his every word, realizing the
dangerous implications of him breaking away. Party leaders had days earlier
started reaching out to their legislators in a bid to persuade them not to cast
their lot with the wily, old political war horse.

It is well known that it is Ahmed Patel, political advisor to
Congress president Mrs Sonia Gandhi who has been calling the shots in Gujarat
affairs in Delhi. The last time the Congress won in Gujarat was 33 years ago,
in 1985 when Madhavsinh Solanki set a record with Congress bagging 149 seats in
a house of 182,with the Janata Party getting 14 and the BJP 11, followed by
independents with 8 seats. In the period thereafter it has come to power only
via the backdoor, through mergers and ‘acquisitions’ but never in a ballot
battle. The only record that Modi could not break during his over 13 year rule
as chief minister of Gujarat was the one set by Solanki. And Madhavsinh never
accepted the supremacy of Ahmed Patel in the internal dynamics of the Congress
though his son, Bharatsinh, the present Gujarat Congress chief, has.

Is it a mere coincidence that Patel’s helmsmanship in Delhi has
neither seen the emergence of a single powerful leader in the Gujarat Congress nor
has it once acquired power in the state on it’s own steam?. The last two
Congress chief ministers, Chimanbhai Patel and Chhabildas Mehta were both
inserts from the Janata Party while another ‘import’ of independent standing, Vaghela,
has now left in disgust. Ironically, the last decade and a half has seen the
meteoric rise of Narendra Modi who not only became the longest serving chief
minister of Gujarat but has been singularly responsible for cutting the
Congress to pygmy proportions nationwide besides sending it cart wheeling out
of power at the centre and in state after state!

Though BJP leaders have been making cautious overtures towards
one of their onetime veteran of RSS stock, they are aware that Vaghela is not
inclined to join them for it would amount to paying obeisance to the
present leadership. It would be blasphemous to even think that Vaghela would
play second fiddle to Amit Shah, the man that he is.

Narendra Modi-and not Keshubhai Patel as is generally
believed-was the main reason for his rebellion in 1995 when he had walked out
with a large chunk of BJP legislators to Khajuraho. In the short lived
compromise brokered by veteran Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the rebels returned to the
party fold after Patel gave way to Suresh Mehta as chief minister, and
state secretary Narendra Modi was
banished from the state. However the hounding of Vaghela supporters termed
‘Khajurias’(those who had gone away to khajuraho) by the loyalists nicknamed
‘Hajurias’ with covert support from Modi -Dr Pravin Togadia (VHP)combine, continued
unabated leading to the falls of the Mehta government and the creation of a
regional party by Vaghela which came to power with Congress support. Subsequently
Vaghela wound up his regional party after it’ s defeat at the hustings and joined
the Congress.

While the Congress has quite simply shot itself in the foot in
an election year, what is of great concern to the saffron set up, is the damage
potential of Vaghela to the BJP, now that he is a free horse shorn of the
Congress shackles.

However it is Vaghela’s supporters within the Congress which the
BJP is keen to mop up since many of them are of old BJP stock. Vaghela’s
announcement that they were free to chose where they want to go may have
elicited an immediate BJP invitation but this is easier said than done. Vaghela
still remains very much the man in charge of his supporters and his political
maneouvring will play a decisive role in the next Vidhan Sabha elections in the
state.

He made this aptly clear when he stated at the convention ”Bapus
never retire, the people of Gujarat are my high command and they will decide
what I should do next”.

Ahmed Patel who is due for re-election to the Rajya
Sabha from Gujarat on August 8 better watch out for if Bapu chooses to ‘move’
on the political chessboard, Patel may well find himself floored. The million
rupee question is, will he?.

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