Joe’s Weather Blog: The nasty heat is back and it will stay till Monday (THU-6/14)

This is an archived article and the information in the article may be outdated. Please look at the time stamp on the story to see when it was last updated.

Joe’s Weather Blog: The nasty heat is back and it will stay till Monday (THU-6/14)

Probably should start the blog off with some programming stuff. There are going to be a lot of cancelled newscasts over the next 3 weeks or so…mostly on weekends and quite a few shuffled ones during the week. This is because of sports…mostly golf and soccer. The golf part starts today so no 5/6 PM shows today or tomorrow…then the weekend has a newscast early in the AM on SAT…none on Sunday…followed by later night newscasts after baseball Saturday and golf Sunday. The soccer thing is starts today too and that will whack the noon newscasts…and goes into the 1st week of July. That will affect the late AM newscasts and the noon shows. It’s a mess so thanks for sticking with us for the next few weeks.

Forecast:

Today: Hot and more humid with highs in the lower 90s. Breezy as well.

Tonight: Sticky with lows in the 70s

Friday: Ditto…mid 90s

This weekend>Monday: Ditto…mid 90s.

Discussion:

I could probably stop there with that forecast. Needless to say…tough to come up with anything creative with this forecast over the next few days. Just hot, breezy, and definitely more humid compared to yesterday.

The 8AM surface map shows the dew points already close to 70. This happened in the last few hours as the winds went from the east to the south. The thicker air was just sitting to the south yesterday…and it’s back this morning.

The morning satellite shows mostly clear skies around the region with the exception of some bigger storms across IA.

They’re starting the AM with some heavy and flooding rains up there.

The main severe weather risks today will be well towards the northern US part of the country into southern Canada.

For the KC region..we’ll be getting drier and drier with little hope for additional moisture through at least Monday.

Beyond that though…there is some hope.

The developing anti-cyclone that will be sitting and waffling through eastern KS and western MO for the next several days should weaken early next week. That should start eroding the core of the highest heat in the Plains. So at least starting Tuesday there should be a gradual reduction of the max temperatures in KC.

From a rain standpoint there are different solutions. The GFS model wants to nudge a cold front through the region later Monday night bringing a chance of fast hitting storms later Monday and then nothing else beyond that. The weather will be more bearable though from a humidity standpoint.

The EURO has that front falling apart in N MO on Monday…then pushes a new front through later Tuesday. This seems more reasonable to me considering the flow in the atmosphere is so weak on Monday…and the heat so strong that the 1st front is probably being shoved to far south too quickly.

So let’s use the EURO as the idea for Tuesday onwards. The front then would come through later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. It too would be weak…but would knock about 5-10° off the highs.

The rain situation though could be a bit better with this. The flow in the atmosphere would be so weak that whatever would form would dump rain in certain areas. The coverage of storms though would be a question. We we’ll need to watch and see how capped we are…BUT there will be a LOT of moisture in the atmosphere…very tropical from the ground upwards…so it’s a recipe for locally heavy rains with slow moving storms…that create their own outflows that create new storms. Something we’ve seen already this spring a few times around here. While any organized severe weather risks aren’t looking so good…let’s watch for locally strong downburst winds as something that can occur with this situation starting Tuesday.

I posted it on my FB page too…and we even did a story on it in the news. Well it was apparently a old picture from a couple of years ago.

Other notes…lots of rain coming towards SE TX…

Rain coming this weekend. NHC forecast for the tropical system down to 10%…but don't let that fool you Southeast Texas. Heavy downpours are good bet this weekend. 2-5" inch amounts. Greater amounts possible depending on the track. pic.twitter.com/xS59k8pPbN

A few other notes. Last night there was a tornado in the Wilkes Barre area of PA. Went right through the town. That city is sort of in the middle of a radar void with the closest radar being from Binghamton, NY some 60 miles away. It was an impressive couplet though on radar and there was damage and search and rescues ongoing through the late night there. cars were flipped as well.

The rain will be towards New Mexico too…

My schedule is also getting messy. I’ll be in Boston next week, starting Monday, for a graphics seminar. That will go through Thursday…then I’m off again next weekend…so the blogs will be non-existent starting Monday. Sorry about all of this. I won’t have my computer either on my trip next week…I’m trying to pack very light for that trip.

So there you go…the maps look like July and August in some cases…the weather is doing July/August things out there too.

Andy Rebar has the feature photo of the day…from the Lenexa area

The shafts of light are caused by a setting sun with a distant thunderstorm cloud way off towards the eastern horizon. The shafts of light are coming from between the bulging clouds in the atmosphere.