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Friday, March 3, 2017

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: January 26 – February 28, 2017

By Jonathan Mautner

Russia waged an aggressive air
campaign against critical civilian infrastructure in southern and northern Syria
from February 12 – 27, marking the continuation of a policy Russia has
implemented since the start of its intervention in the Syrian Civil War. Russia
conducted heavy waves of
airstrikes against opposition terrain in southern Dera’a Province during
this period, supporting pro-regime forces after U.S.-backed Southern
Front-affiliated groups and prominent Salafi-jihadi factions launched a joint offensive to capture
the regime-held Manshiya District in Dera’a City. Russian
warplanes repeatedly targeted medical
facilities and other vital
civilian infrastructure in the area, aiming to depopulate opposition-held
districts of the city and draw opposition forces away from front lines. Russian
airstrikes also targeted hospitals in southern
Idlib and western
Aleppo Provinces, likely in anticipation of a pending opposition offensive
against regime-held Hama City. Notably, the UN concluded two weeks prior that Russian
and regime airstrikes extensively
targeted hospitals in Aleppo City from July – November 2016, such that “no
hospitals were left functioning” in December. The UN findings and recent wave
of hospital strikes indicate that Russia will continue to flout international
humanitarian law and target civilian infrastructure as part and parcel of its
way of war in Syria.

The Russian air campaign in
southern and northern Syria also rendered acceptable opposition groups
increasingly vulnerable to Salafi-jihadist attacks. Russian airstrikes in and
around Dera’a City enabled ISIS affiliate Jaysh Khalid ibn al Walid to seize
several towns from opposition forces in the vicinity of the nearby Yarmuk
Basin, an area dominated by the Southern Front. Russian warplanes also targeted
a headquarters of former U.S.-backed TOW anti-tank missile recipient Jaysh
Idlib al Hur in southern Idlib Province on February 15, likely emboldening al
Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate to threaten
the weakened group ten days later. Although Russian
airstrikes facilitated pro-regime
gains against ISIS in eastern Homs Province from February 8 – 11 and 26 –
28, the ambit of Russia’s anti-ISIS effort extends only so far as it aligns with
its goal to preserve the Syrian regime. In contrast, Russia will continue to
invest heavily in the targeting of acceptable opposition groups, so as to make
them more susceptible to recruitment and attack by ISIS and al Qaeda. As Russia
continues to both violate international legal norms and accelerate the
radicalization of the armed opposition, it all but disqualifies itself as a
viable partner for the U.S. counter-terrorism coalition.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, statements by Russian and Western officials, and documentation of Russian airstrikes through social media. This map represents locations targeted by Russia’s air campaign, rather than the number of individual strikes or sorties. The graphic likely under-represents the extent of the locations targeted in Eastern Syria, owing to a relative lack of activist reporting from that region.

High-Confidence Reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports corroborated by documentation from opposition factions and activist networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible that demonstrate a number of key indicators of Russian airstrikes.