Saturday, July 23, 2016

"What is it that is frightening the Saudi royal family? Prima facie,
the disclosures by the famous Saudi whistleblower Mutjahid (who many
suspect to be a dissenter within the House of Saud) to the effect that
Gulen has strong links with Saudi Arabia and that the powerful deputy
crown prince and defence minister Mohammed bin Salman was in the know of
the Turkish coup seems to have some basis. There is indeed a tone of
panic in the Saudi media attack on Erdogan.
According to Mutjahid, Mohammed bin Salman apparently suspects that
the Turkish intelligence knows about the Saudi-UAE role in the attempted
coup against Erdogan. (Curiously, according to reports, Turkish
military attaché in Kuwait tried to flee to an unnamed western country
from the Saudi airport of Dammam before being detained for involvement
in the coup attempt.) The Saudi talkers have probably gone on the
offensive as the best form of defence, fearing a retaliation by Erdogan.
More importantly, Saudis must be feeling frightened about the manner
in which the coup attempt in Turkey was countered by Erdogan, who
invoked ‘people’s power’. Shades of ‘Arab Spring’! This is the spectre
that always haunted the Saudis – masses pouring out into the streets in
their tens of thousands as the final arbiters of political power in a
Muslim country. Worse still, this political tactic also leaps out of the
manifesto of the Muslim Brotherhood, which poses an existential threat
to the Saudi regime.
The point is, from the Saudi viewpoint, the most dangerous thing
about Erdogan is not his ‘neo-Ottomanism’ but his close links with the
Brothers for whose sake he even sacrificed Turkey’s state-to-state
relations with the Egyptian regime of President Abdel Fattah- el-Sisi
(who came to power through a Saudi-backed military coup).
Finally, the Saudis are big losers – next only to Israel – in the
rapprochement between Turkey and Iran that is getting under way in
regional politics. Erdogan told Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during a
phone conversation on Tuesday that he is ready to work with Iran and
Russia to restore regional peace. The Iranian official news agency
quoted Erdogan as saying,

Today, we are determined more than ever before to contribute
to the solution of regional problems hand in hand with Iran and Russia
and in cooperation with them.

Of course, such a realignment in the Muslim Middle
East would profoundly impact the balance of forces in regional politics,
virtually isolating Saudi Arabia."

Also: "Turkey’s failed coup throws up surprises" and "There’s more to Turkey’s failed coup than meets the eye"

"Greece’s Air Force: Erdogan’s aircraft at no point harassed by rebel F-16s on Coup night"

"Exclusive: all the details about the air ops and aerial battle over Turkey during the military coup to depose Erdogan":

"Coup F-16s searched for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plane, TC-ATA around Istanbul to shoot it down. According to some media reports rebel TuAF F-16s had the plane in their sights: it’s unclear whether they had a real lock-on, rather that they probably were searching the sky for the Gulfstream IV.
Furthermore, TC-ATA used a callsign THY 8456 to disguise as a Turkish Airlines airplane (Turkish’s callsign is THY) and the risk of shooting down another plane, and losing credibility too, could be a factor affecting the coup’s F-16s to shot down his plane and kill Erdogan."

"What is it that is frightening the Saudi royal family? Prima facie,
the disclosures by the famous Saudi whistleblower Mutjahid (who many
suspect to be a dissenter within the House of Saud) to the effect that
Gulen has strong links with Saudi Arabia and that the powerful deputy
crown prince and defence minister Mohammed bin Salman was in the know of
the Turkish coup seems to have some basis. There is indeed a tone of
panic in the Saudi media attack on Erdogan.
According to Mutjahid, Mohammed bin Salman apparently suspects that
the Turkish intelligence knows about the Saudi-UAE role in the attempted
coup against Erdogan. (Curiously, according to reports, Turkish
military attaché in Kuwait tried to flee to an unnamed western country
from the Saudi airport of Dammam before being detained for involvement
in the coup attempt.) The Saudi talkers have probably gone on the
offensive as the best form of defence, fearing a retaliation by Erdogan.
More importantly, Saudis must be feeling frightened about the manner
in which the coup attempt in Turkey was countered by Erdogan, who
invoked ‘people’s power’. Shades of ‘Arab Spring’! This is the spectre
that always haunted the Saudis – masses pouring out into the streets in
their tens of thousands as the final arbiters of political power in a
Muslim country. Worse still, this political tactic also leaps out of the
manifesto of the Muslim Brotherhood, which poses an existential threat
to the Saudi regime.
The point is, from the Saudi viewpoint, the most dangerous thing
about Erdogan is not his ‘neo-Ottomanism’ but his close links with the
Brothers for whose sake he even sacrificed Turkey’s state-to-state
relations with the Egyptian regime of President Abdel Fattah- el-Sisi
(who came to power through a Saudi-backed military coup).
Finally, the Saudis are big losers – next only to Israel – in the
rapprochement between Turkey and Iran that is getting under way in
regional politics. Erdogan told Iranian President Hassan Rouhani during a
phone conversation on Tuesday that he is ready to work with Iran and
Russia to restore regional peace. The Iranian official news agency
quoted Erdogan as saying,

Today, we are determined more than ever before to contribute
to the solution of regional problems hand in hand with Iran and Russia
and in cooperation with them.

Of course, such a realignment in the Muslim Middle
East would profoundly impact the balance of forces in regional politics,
virtually isolating Saudi Arabia."

Also: "Turkey’s failed coup throws up surprises" and "There’s more to Turkey’s failed coup than meets the eye"

"Greece’s Air Force: Erdogan’s aircraft at no point harassed by rebel F-16s on Coup night"

"Exclusive: all the details about the air ops and aerial battle over Turkey during the military coup to depose Erdogan":

"Coup F-16s searched for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s plane, TC-ATA around Istanbul to shoot it down. According to some media reports rebel TuAF F-16s had the plane in their sights: it’s unclear whether they had a real lock-on, rather that they probably were searching the sky for the Gulfstream IV.
Furthermore, TC-ATA used a callsign THY 8456 to disguise as a Turkish Airlines airplane (Turkish’s callsign is THY) and the risk of shooting down another plane, and losing credibility too, could be a factor affecting the coup’s F-16s to shot down his plane and kill Erdogan."