Vicenzino: The international community should keep all options open with Muammer Gadhafi. |
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By MARCO VICENZINO | 2/24/11 9:38 AM EST

As Muammar Qadhafi vows to fight to his “last drop of blood,” the international community — specifically, the U.N. Security Council — must keep all options open.

Diplomatic and economic sanctions are the initial prospects. As a last resort, the use of armed force must be authorized if an unfolding humanitarian disaster requires — as was done in 1991, to protect fleeing Kurds in northern Iraq.

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POLITICO 44

Should the U.N. process falter due to internal politics, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must assume responsibility and intervene — even without U.N. authorization if necessary. A precedent was set in Kosovo in 1999. In Libya, regional order and international stability could be at stake.

Libya’s uprising is proving to be the Middle East’s most violent yet. Qadhafi’s four-decade reign of repression was among the region’s fiercest. The furious popular reaction is the least one can expect, as is his determination to persevere.

Qadhafi’s usual incoherent and defiant speech seemed a desperate attempt at self-preservation, as he blamed unrest on external forces. His decade-long campaign to present his son, and heir-apparent, as a reformist figure looked like a cosmetic generational change for extending the family business.

External pressure appears to have limited ability to influence developments in Libya. Tunisia is largely dependent upon European markets, as Egypt is on U.S. aid, both economic and military. The Qadhafi regime has far greater independence due to its vast oil and gas reserves. The high quality of its oil enabled Qadhafi to exploit foreign investors and effectively manipulate his relatively small population of five million.

U.S. hands remain tied diplomatically. Loosening them will require concerted multilateral action. Which may be hard.

With Libya accounting for roughly 2 percent of global oil output, its instability — and any interruption in supply – clearly rattles international markets. The European Union bears the initial brunt, as the largest share of global trade, at 25 percent, and the key destination for Libyan oil.

Continuing uncertainty can only complicate Europe’s current internal difficulties. The threat of waves of refugees offers another serious challenge to its current limited resources.

This turmoil in the oil market could have enormous implications for the still volatile world economy, as it struggles to recover from global recession. The corporate sector must face the reality that in Libya — and elsewhere — it may no longer be business-as-usual. Factoring growing regional risk into their activities can only complicate the costs of doing business.

Libya, unlike Tunisia and Egypt, is a relatively closed society. Despite many foreign oil workers, Libya remains more isolated than its neighbors because it never built a tourism sector.

And the army in Libya also plays a different role. In Tunisia and Egypt, the military has considerable public respect as an institution of authority. It is largely representative of the broader socioeconomic structure. But in Libya, the army is an extension of the regime. Qadhafi’s use of foreign mercenaries, and past use of lethal force, also undermines any credibility it may have.

There appears to be no organized opposition in Libya. Should the regime fall, a power vacuum is a serious possibility — at least in the short term.

And Qadhafi is intent on staying. In addition to his shrewd use of resources to exploit others, Qadhafi has displayed an uncanny ability to re-invent himself over these four decades. He has played the Arab nationalist, the advocate of African unity, the terrorist-freedom fighter. As the promoter of U.S. rapprochement, he orchestrated cooperation on the Lockerbie bombing, collaboration on counter-terrorism and, above all, renunciation of Libya’s nuclear program.

This led to the U.N. sanctions being lifted. Libya re-entered the international stage. And the fierce international competition for access to Libya’s resources ensued. From the outside, all looked rosy for Qadhafi. Yet, on the inside, a dangerous unrest was growing.

Unlike the former Tunisian and Egyptian leaders, Qadhafi will not retire quietly. Whether this is the beginning of the last act, or the final scene, is not yet certain. Ultimately, the Qadhafi regime presents no enduring vision or future — only brute force, coercion and manipulation.

Should it survive this tragic episode or civil war result, it may only temporarily delayed Qadhafi’s inevitable exit.