Entered this thread to let out my frustration... this month is EXTREMELY irritating for me, I climbed to legend many many times even though I don't play a lot - ranks 5-1 were (almost) always a matter of picking a good deck, focusing, and I could breeze straight to legend in 2 days, but this month...

Its just ridiculous. Right now Im rank 4. There is no specific deck people play that I can counter. Last 10 games I saw otk paladin, combo priest, big priest, spiteful priest, cubelock, murloc pala, "dude" pala, zoo, secret mage, minionless hunter and midrange hunter. Not even 1 repeat. Meanwhile whatever I queue with, I constantly get decks with teched-in counters, like eaters of secrets against my secret mage or oozes against my cubelock - while I don't play murloc pala, I bet I would encounter hungry crabs the moment I queue with it, as its known some people tech them. Today I tried to trihard to rank up, but after 40 games I'm exactly at 50% winrate and completely nothing works.

But but source? Link? Stats? Affidavit?

Its the matchmaking probability acting up since nerfs. You and others are experiencing it.

A well thought out challenging response, allow me to respond based on my own experiences and observations. It's not there, and it never has been.

"provide statistic and source" drivel...

So provide statistics and source is not really about proving anything it's about asking you to demonstrate the basis of your thesis and opinion as without it we only have you're word for it and with the greatest of respect that carries little to no weight given you're just a random picture on a games forum.

Only simpletons or children need everything proven

And only cretins hunt for complicated answers to simple questions dismissing all other possibilities.

Keep dancing around the question with attempts at intelligence. The “prove it” response was spammed in countless nerf threads when evidence wasn’t there, and the cards were still nerfed. It’s obvious that hard data is not always available for every situation and occurrence.

It happened many times but I always had the firm idea that was just the RNG, now I feel that any of my decks can make it

There is no true RNG in this game. Everything has increased or decreased probability. The behind the scenes is out of whack right now.

Could you link us to the source? Do you have any kind of proof or is it just your stomach feelings?

Just years of playing the game and seeing the pattern. I’m not the only one that’s noticed. You can search plenty on the topic. It’s not game breaking or anything, but it does have its annoyances when big nerfs like this come out. Everyone wondered why the didn’t nerf cube..it’s because they did it behind the scenes.

Then it’s sadly just BS. You noticing a pattern is nothing in the grand scheme of 70 million players playing the game. Unless you find 50 million topics then it’s just a useless stomach feeling.

Show us some proof. Or live in a world where anyone can claim anything to be true.

My gut and common sense has served me well in my life. Not everything can be found via source and statistics. I don’t care rather you believe it or not. It’s there, and will always be there. This game cannot be balanced with card design and nerfs alone.

I guess that's how they came up with religion. "I somehow got a feeling that a divine entity is protecting me."

You seem upset. The same “provide statistic and source” drivel posted ITT has been posted hundreds of times in nerf threads for Patches, Raza and Creeper. The stats and sources were rarely there. They still got nerfed and were problems, correct? Only simpletons or children need everything proven. That’s not how things work.

LOL, I seem upset because I refuse to believe in some conspiracy based on your guts? Are you serious right now?

You seem upset because you’re getting emotional and taking shots at religion. It’s not solely my gut. It’s common sense.

The guy who starts with argumentum ad hominem claims that other people get emotional.

BTW the analogy with religion is fitting as you claim something without evidence, going so far as refuting empiricial evidence.

There is zero evidence for or against. Unless they come out and admit it, there never will be. Blizzard manipulates probability with pack openings and arena, why some naive people believe it doesn’t transition to matchmaking and standard I have no idea. People are also dodging my comments on previous “prove it” posters. This was spammed in nerf threads for Raza, Creeper and Patches. You don’t always need to be a weatherman to know it’s raining.

It happened many times but I always had the firm idea that was just the RNG, now I feel that any of my decks can make it

There is no true RNG in this game. Everything has increased or decreased probability. The behind the scenes is out of whack right now.

Could you link us to the source? Do you have any kind of proof or is it just your stomach feelings?

Just years of playing the game and seeing the pattern. I’m not the only one that’s noticed. You can search plenty on the topic. It’s not game breaking or anything, but it does have its annoyances when big nerfs like this come out. Everyone wondered why the didn’t nerf cube..it’s because they did it behind the scenes.

Then it’s sadly just BS. You noticing a pattern is nothing in the grand scheme of 70 million players playing the game. Unless you find 50 million topics then it’s just a useless stomach feeling.

Show us some proof. Or live in a world where anyone can claim anything to be true.

My gut and common sense has served me well in my life. Not everything can be found via source and statistics. I don’t care rather you believe it or not. It’s there, and will always be there. This game cannot be balanced with card design and nerfs alone.

I guess that's how they came up with religion. "I somehow got a feeling that a divine entity is protecting me."

You seem upset. The same “provide statistic and source” drivel posted ITT has been posted hundreds of times in nerf threads for Patches, Raza and Creeper. The stats and sources were rarely there. They still got nerfed and were problems, correct? Only simpletons or children need everything proven. That’s not how things work.

LOL, I seem upset because I refuse to believe in some conspiracy based on your guts? Are you serious right now?

You seem upset because you’re getting emotional and taking shots at religion. It’s not solely my gut. It’s common sense.

It happened many times but I always had the firm idea that was just the RNG, now I feel that any of my decks can make it

There is no true RNG in this game. Everything has increased or decreased probability. The behind the scenes is out of whack right now.

Could you link us to the source? Do you have any kind of proof or is it just your stomach feelings?

Just years of playing the game and seeing the pattern. I’m not the only one that’s noticed. You can search plenty on the topic. It’s not game breaking or anything, but it does have its annoyances when big nerfs like this come out. Everyone wondered why the didn’t nerf cube..it’s because they did it behind the scenes.

Then it’s sadly just BS. You noticing a pattern is nothing in the grand scheme of 70 million players playing the game. Unless you find 50 million topics then it’s just a useless stomach feeling.

Show us some proof. Or live in a world where anyone can claim anything to be true.

My gut and common sense has served me well in my life. Not everything can be found via source and statistics. I don’t care rather you believe it or not. It’s there, and will always be there. This game cannot be balanced with card design and nerfs alone.

I guess that's how they came up with religion. "I somehow got a feeling that a divine entity is protecting me."

You seem upset. The same “provide statistic and source” drivel posted ITT has been posted hundreds of times in nerf threads for Patches, Raza and Creeper. The stats and sources were rarely there. They still got nerfed and were problems, correct? Only simpletons or children need everything proven. That’s not how things work.

It happened many times but I always had the firm idea that was just the RNG, now I feel that any of my decks can make it

There is no true RNG in this game. Everything has increased or decreased probability. The behind the scenes is out of whack right now.

Could you link us to the source? Do you have any kind of proof or is it just your stomach feelings?

Just years of playing the game and seeing the pattern. I’m not the only one that’s noticed. You can search plenty on the topic. It’s not game breaking or anything, but it does have its annoyances when big nerfs like this come out. Everyone wondered why the didn’t nerf cube..it’s because they did it behind the scenes.

Then it’s sadly just BS. You noticing a pattern is nothing in the grand scheme of 70 million players playing the game. Unless you find 50 million topics then it’s just a useless stomach feeling.

Show us some proof. Or live in a world where anyone can claim anything to be true.

My gut and common sense has served me well in my life. Not everything can be found via source and statistics. I don’t care rather you believe it or not. It’s there, and will always be there. This game cannot be balanced with card design and nerfs alone.

The reason it is so easy to conceal, is because the same "evidence" that is used to "prove" it exists, also "proves" it doesn't.

If I am matched against 5 Aggro Paladin's while playing Exodia Mage, and I decide to switch to Control Warlock ... and I suddenly stop seeing Aggro ... you can look at that and say "obviously, you were due for a change" ... " or you can look at it and say "the game changed my matchmaking" ... and neither argument can be proven true, because they both are reasonable to believe.

Last month I made a concerted effort to play 3 different deck archetypes as equally as possible. I played at the same times, switching decks every 5 games. When I reached a total of 100 games played with each deck, I looked at the matchups, and each deck had dramatically different results, with either a mirror match, or direct counter match being the most dominate matchup, and the best possible matchup being the least played (of the top decks). I am sorry, I don't have the screenshots here right now at work ... but each one showed a deviation of around 15% or more.

While 300 games is a "small sample" for actual statistics, its a lot of games for one person to play in a month under controlled conditions. And it should be enough games to at least see similar graphs ... not ones that are completely different, but all 3 follow the same deviations.

Exactly how it is being done ... I have no idea. But I have zero doubt it is being done.

It wouldn’t be hard. They could group decks based on mana cost, then have code look at that and the rank. I think it’s way deeper though. I think they have multiple swing/tech cards in the code, and they compare these against others. I’ve noticed with top tier decks with tech, that I rarely see my answers early game. Even after an aggressive mulligan. Blizzard wants to keep everyone as close to 50% as possible. Makes too much sense.

And this is why some people get Legend with 70%+ wr?? And it has nothing to do with the fact that almost everyone is using the same decks?? Also Ben Brode stated that they don’t manipulate the Matchmaking in that direction. ( The benefit for Blizz seems not relevant to me) I trust him with this one , it would be awful for his ,and Blizzards reputation if a rigged system would be discovered.

And 300 games are actually not that small of a sample size,but pls keep in mind to make a relevant statistic, those games should be played in one day, preferably a couple hours. The meta changes to fast ( two days ago my buddy faced 30% aggro Paladin, now Priest is on the rise again) for one guy to make a relevant sample size over a couple days/ 300 games .

i never said the loaded probability definitively wins or loses games. Good players will always negate some bad odds and RNG. It’s not 100% of the time.

Blizzard doesn’t have to worry because it can’t be disproved or proved. I wouldn’t think it would hurt anything if it came out. Again, it’s the easiest way to balance the game. I know lots of good players that have been hovering at 50% since nerfs. I have as well. These aren’t net deckers either. Matchmaking has been painfully obvious.

It happened many times but I always had the firm idea that was just the RNG, now I feel that any of my decks can make it

There is no true RNG in this game. Everything has increased or decreased probability. The behind the scenes is out of whack right now.

Could you link us to the source? Do you have any kind of proof or is it just your stomach feelings?

Just years of playing the game and seeing the pattern. I’m not the only one that’s noticed. You can search plenty on the topic. It’s not game breaking or anything, but it does have its annoyances when big nerfs like this come out. Everyone wondered why the didn’t nerf cube..it’s because they did it behind the scenes.

The reason it is so easy to conceal, is because the same "evidence" that is used to "prove" it exists, also "proves" it doesn't.

If I am matched against 5 Aggro Paladin's while playing Exodia Mage, and I decide to switch to Control Warlock ... and I suddenly stop seeing Aggro ... you can look at that and say "obviously, you were due for a change" ... " or you can look at it and say "the game changed my matchmaking" ... and neither argument can be proven true, because they both are reasonable to believe.

Last month I made a concerted effort to play 3 different deck archetypes as equally as possible. I played at the same times, switching decks every 5 games. When I reached a total of 100 games played with each deck, I looked at the matchups, and each deck had dramatically different results, with either a mirror match, or direct counter match being the most dominate matchup, and the best possible matchup being the least played (of the top decks). I am sorry, I don't have the screenshots here right now at work ... but each one showed a deviation of around 15% or more.

While 300 games is a "small sample" for actual statistics, its a lot of games for one person to play in a month under controlled conditions. And it should be enough games to at least see similar graphs ... not ones that are completely different, but all 3 follow the same deviations.

Exactly how it is being done ... I have no idea. But I have zero doubt it is being done.

It wouldn’t be hard. They could group decks based on mana cost, then have code look at that and the rank. I think it’s way deeper though. I think they have multiple swing/tech cards in the code, and they compare these against others. I’ve noticed with top tier decks with tech, that I rarely see my answers early game. Even after an aggressive mulligan. Blizzard wants to keep everyone as close to 50% as possible. Makes too much sense.

It's true it would require access to data on a large scale, and analysis specifically checking for manipulation. But the data exists and the analysis can be done outside of Blizzard's control, and it would be damaging if found.

For that reason alone I think it's unlikely though as I say I don't deny it is theoretically possible.

The tech cards example would be relatively simple to check. And of course the whole point of tech cards is to help keep dominant decks in check, and to provide a player with the chance to counter. I doubt Blizzard would want to secretly manipulate this and I know I've been geisted and secret eatered myself a few times this week which hurt :)

They don’t neuter anything, and the data isn’t significant enough to verify or disprove. It’s slight bumps in probability either for or against. Whatever is needed. View it as a slider in video game settings. It’s adjusted based on the meta.

It’s the main reason Blizzard isn’t quick to nerf. Plenty happens behind the scenes to adjust gameplay. The only time a nerf is needed, is when the problem cards are very obvious, and the probability adjustment would be obvious as well. If everyone is playing certain problem cards, then it’s more likely to get noticed if they were to tinker with them behind the scenes.

I'm skeptical that matchmaking matchup percentages have been manipulated (though I can't for certain say it has or hasn't).

It's just that if it has I think it's damaging to the reputation of Team 5/Blizzard.

And it can't be hidden in data analysis on sites like hsreplay.net who track 100,000s of games - the skew would be obvious with a sample size that large.

Just pay attention going forward. I’ve noticed it the biggest with tech cards. I’ll put in a Geist, see zero Druid for 10 games. I’ll start hitting a bunch of mage and hunter. Drop Geist for eater, nothing but Druid. There is definitely loaded probability with match making and card draw/RNG. Blizzard is like Vegas. They want competitive fun moments. Not everyone pays attention to meta reports, or has the cards to combat tier 1 decks. Blizzard is just balancing the force.

I’ve never encountered this. I’ve always thought draw and matchmaking was manipulated behind the scenes, but it seems way more prominent now. I believe nerfing behind the scenes makes sense, but it seems like things are way wonkier than usual.

I have been saying for months now, that something in the matchmaking had changed, but of course nearly every mention of it was always met with the "conformation bias" or "tin foil hat" response, so why bother? There is just no way it can be explained away why you can play 3 different decks, and get 3 drastically different matchup percentages. I could understand some deviation, but not 15-20% deviations.

It’s obvious..some people just want to believe that everything is pure. In all honesty, I don’t blame Blizzard, as it’s the easiest way to keep things competitive. Manipulation of probability allows nerfs without freaking the community out. IMO the card nerfs are the reason for the probability being off. I’ve seen way too many perfect RNG moments over the last week.

I’ve never encountered this. I’ve always thought draw and matchmaking was manipulated behind the scenes, but it seems way more prominent now. I believe nerfing behind the scenes makes sense, but it seems like things are way wonkier than usual.