–
As expected by the Cancel Bear, Hart of Dixie was officially canceled by the CW. The bear knew The Messengers wouldn’t ever air during the regular season again, the CW made it official it would never air anywhere else. iZombie became yet another WB show piled into next year’s CW schedule along with many low rated CBS shows.

That closes out the Cancel Bear’s miss free CW 2014-15 prediction season. He pushed on Reign, The 100 and Jane the Virgin which were renewed while they were predicted as “toss ups” in January.

The Cancel Bear’s final 2014-15 CW prediction record was 8-0-3.

Have a great summer, the Cancel Bear will return in mid-September!
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him.

]]>stevebaronbear-fire'Hart of Dixie' Canceled by The CW After 4 Seasons; 'The Messengers' Cancelled After Single Seasonhttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/1/hart-of-dixie-canceled-by-the-cw-after-4-seasons/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/1/hart-of-dixie-canceled-by-the-cw-after-4-seasons/#respondThu, 07 May 2015 19:17:54 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=400427]]>

Surprising no one, Hart of Dixie has been officially cancelled by The CW. The Messengers has also been cancelled.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/1/hart-of-dixie-canceled-by-the-cw-after-4-seasons/feed/0stevebaronWhy Don’t We Get DrunkFinal CW Predictions/Status For 'iZombie' & 'The Messengers'http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/final-cw-predictionsstatus-for-izombie-the-messengers/
Tue, 05 May 2015 15:03:14 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=395700]]>Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows&#8217; rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, and since the fate of all the current broadcast shows should be known by the coming weekend, so as is our custom, we play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Check back during the week, the status of each show will be updated as we learn the news.

Our final guesses for RENEWAL chances:

Status

Tom Shaw

The Cancel Bear

Hart of Dixie

canceled

The Messengers

canceled 5/7

0%

0%

iZombie

renewed 5/6

90%

100%

Reign

renewed

The 100

renewed

Jane The Virgin

renewed

The Originals

renewed

The Vampire Diaries

renewed

Supernatural

renewed

Arrow

renewed

The Flash

renewed

– The Cancel Bear will be shocked if he misses either of his remaining CW show predictions this season. You can take his % prediction for The Messengers as “will it ever air during the CW regular season again?”.

The bear missed one CW prediction last season (Beauty And The Beast cancellation). He pushed on Reign, Jane the Virginand The 100 this season, which were renewed while “toss ups”. Next season he’ll be ready for any New Year’s renewal flurries by the CW (and CBS).

As you’ll see in all the Oddsmakers posts, the cancellation bear and Tom Shaw (Bubble Watch) are boringly similar in all but one show’s prediction (it’s an NBC show).

To those who claim “You never make an up or down call!”, please take all of my guesses above 50% as thumbs up, and below 50% as thumbs down with their distance from 50% being my level of confidence.
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him.

]]>stevebaronodds-makersBubble Watch: Down To The Nitty-Gritty Editionhttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-down-to-the-nitty-gritty-edition/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/bubble-watch/bubble-watch-down-to-the-nitty-gritty-edition/#respondSun, 03 May 2015 14:38:26 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=398573]]>

Show

Network

Status

Manhattan Love Story

ABC

Canceled

c2evenge

ABC

Canceled

Selfie

ABC

Canceled

The Mentalist

CBS

Final Season Complete

The Millers

CBS

Canceled

Two and a Half Men

CBS

Final Season Complete

Glee

Fox

Final Season Complete

Gracepoint

Fox

Canceled

Mulaney

Fox

Canceled

Red Band Society

Fox

Canceled

A to Z

NBC

Canceled

Allegiance

NBC

Canceled

Bad Judge

NBC

Canceled

Parenthood

NBC

Final Season Complete

Parks & Recreation

NBC

Final Season Complete

tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com

Agent Carter

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

American Crime

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Cristela

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Forever

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Galavant

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Resurrection

ABC

Cancellation Predicted

Battle Creek

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

CSI

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Hawaii Five-0

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

The McCarthys

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Stalker

CBS

Cancellation Predicted

Hart of Dixie

CW

Cancellation Predicted

The Messengers

CW

Cancellation Predicted

Backstrom

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

The Following

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

Weird Loners

Fox

Cancellation Predicted

About a Boy

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

American Odyssey

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Constantine

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Marry Me

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

Mysteries of Laura

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

One Big Happy

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

State of Affairs

NBC

Cancellation Predicted

tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

ABC

Renewal Predicted

black-ish

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Castle

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Fresh Off the Boat

ABC

Renewal Predicted

The Goldbergs

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Grey’s Anatomy

ABC

Renewal Predicted

How To Get Away With Murder

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Last Man Standing

ABC

Renewal Predicted

The Middle

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Modern Family

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Nashville

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Once Upon a Time

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Scandal

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Secrets & Lies

ABC

Renewal Predicted

Blue Bloods

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Criminal Minds

CBS

Renewal Predicted

CSI: Cyber

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Elementary

CBS

Renewal Predicted

The Good Wife

CBS

Renewal Predicted

NCIS

CBS

Renewal Predicted

NCIS: Los Angeles

CBS

Renewal Predicted

The Odd Couple

CBS

Renewal Predicted

Person of Interest

CBS

Renewal Predicted

iZombie

CW

Renewal Predicted

Bones

Fox

Renewal Predicted

The Mindy Project

Fox

Renewal Predicted

AD: The Bible Continues

NBC

Renewal Predicted

The Night Shift

NBC

Renewal Predicted

Undateable

NBC

Renewal Predicted

tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com

The Big Bang Theory

CBS

Renewed

Madam Secretary

CBS

Renewed

Mike & Molly

CBS

Renewed

NCIS: New Orleans

CBS

Renewed

Mom

CBS

Renewed

Scorpion

CBS

Renewed

2 Broke Girls

CBS

Renewed

Arrow

CW

Renewed

Beauty & the Beast

CW

Renewed

The Flash

CW

Renewed

Jane The Virgin

CW

Renewed

The 100

CW

Renewed

The Originals

CW

Renewed

Reign

CW

Renewed

Supernatural

CW

Renewed

Vampire Diaries

CW

Renewed

Bob’s Burgers

Fox

Renewed

Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Fox

Renewed

Empire

Fox

Renewed

Family Guy

Fox

Renewed

Gotham

Fox

Renewed

The Last Man on Earth

Fox

Renewed

New Girl

Fox

Renewed

The Simpsons

Fox

Episodes Exist for Next Season

Sleepy Hollow

Fox

Renewed

The Blacklist

NBC

Renewed

Chicago Fire

NBC

Renewed

Chicago P.D.

NBC

Renewed

Grimm

NBC

Renewed

Law & Order: SVU

NBC

Renewed

–

Bubble Watch: Down To The Nitty-Gritty Edition

Important Note: The Network Upfronts are next week (May 11th – 14th), starting off with NBC likely announcing their schedule on May 10th, but the future of nearly all existing shows and pilots will be determined by late this week. Buckle up, this should be a wild ride.

As promised, here’s a look at every show whose fate is “unknown” headed into this week.

ABC

Castle

Pro: Nathan Fillion has signed a new contract. He and the show will be back.

Con: No such guarantee about any other actors in the show.

Verdict: Renewed.

Fresh Off The Boat

Pro: These ratings, opposite The Voice, The Flash, & NCIS, with no national lead-in, should be more than enough to get a second shot.

Con: You never know if a network will fall in love with all its pilots and think they have a better shot.

Verdict: Renewed. But it may only be for 13 episodes to start with.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Pro: The question seems to be which show serves as its bridge, not if it even needs one in the first place.

Verdict: Renewed.

Agent Carter

Pro: The ratings weren’t terrible.

Con: The only question seems to be if ABC can get another spin-off ready in time to replace this.

Verdict: Canceled.

Forever

Con: There will be no miraculous resurrection here.

Verdict: Canceled.

Resurrection

Con: There will be no miraculous resurrection here.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Middle

Con: Fans are worried that an actor leaving the show suggests it is dead.

Pro: A veteran show losing actors (and their salary) is actually a good thing, as the show is keeping costs down (cough*McDreamy*cough) for another season.

Verdict: Renewed.

The Goldbergs, Modern Family, black-ish, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, How To Get Away With Murder, Once Upon a Time

Pro: Don’t be ridiculous.

Verdict: Renewed.

Nashville

Con: Connie Britton has joined American Crime Story.

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season. They are far less demanding on if every cast member returns, or for how many episodes that fourth season gets.

Verdict: Renewed.

American Crime

Con: The ratings aren’t renewable, regardless of the pedigree.

Verdict: Canceled.

Last Man Standing

Con: Tim Allen doesn’t work for cheap, and we don’t know how seriously ABC is considering going all-reality (Shark Tank-Beyond the Tank-20/20) on the night.

Pro: The ratings are good enough, and ABC has ordered enough pilots, that I think the Friday comedy block remains, and ABC & Fox bundle enough shows together again to get this renewed.

Verdict: Renewed.

Cristela

Con: Unless all the pilots turn out terribly, these ratings just aren’t renewable.

Verdict: Canceled.

Galavant

Con: If the scheduling didn’t convince you this was dead, the ratings should have.

Verdict: Canceled.

Secrets & Lies

Pro: The ratings warrant renewal, and the show was always designed to be open-ended, with Juliette Lewis investigating another case.

Con: Is anyone watching the show for Juliette Lewis? If people are only watching for Ryan Phillippe, and he doesn’t return, just what do the ratings settle at?

Verdict: Renewed. This seems like a case where the only way to find out is to give it a try.

Pro: The show hasn’t even started down the CBS Sunday/Friday retirement tour.

Verdict: Renewed.

NCIS

Con: The ratings are no longer spectacular.

Pro: There’s no sign the costs have ballooned beyond the syndication money it brings in either.

Verdict: Renewed.

Person of Interest

Pro: The show hasn’t even started down the CBS Sunday/Friday retirement tour.

Verdict: Renewed.

Criminal Minds

Pro: It’s Criminal Minds. The show will be back.

Con: It’s Criminal Minds. No guarantee any specific cast member will be back, or (nowadays) that it keeps the timeslot.

Verdict: Renewed.

Stalker

Con: The ratings weren’t even average, and syndication would be years away.

Verdict: Canceled.

CSI: Cyber

Pro: The ratings started out fine (for 10pm), and renewing this keeps a relationship going with the producers even if they axe original recipe CSI.

Con: The ratings were not great, especially opposite the latest Dick Wolf crossover. If this moves to Sundays starting in Fall, it won’t survive to syndication, so why bother?

Verdict: Renewed. But it’ll be close.

The McCarthys

Con: The only reason this isn’t officially canceled is because no one even cares enough to put out the press release.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Odd Couple

Pro: The ratings have been acceptable.

Con: That’s merely acceptable, following The Big Bang Theory. The parallels to The Millers should scare everyone involved, especially since 5 out CBS’ 9 comedy pilots are CBS owned. This is unlikely to get more than a handful of The Big Bang Theory lead-ins for the rest of its life.

Verdict: Renewed. But don’t be shocked if it is gone by the time January 2016 rolls around.

Elementary

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season!

Verdict: Renewed.

Hawaii Five-0

Con: Friday used to be the last stop on the CBS retirement tour, and Hawaii Five-0’s ratings average is less than Blue Bloods’. If CBS has to axe a show to make room for new pickups, this would seem to be it.

Pro: We don’t know the various CBS bubble shows’ syndication and international sales deals. (For a while, CSI: Miami was the most popular show in the world, because people liked the scenery. The same could easily apply here.) For that matter, we don’t even know if CBS “has to” cancel another show. If they axe CSI/Battle Creek and cancel or timeshare (with Madam Secretary) The Good Wife, then CBS has two drama hours free for Fall. If they axe Stalker/CSI: Cyber, or bump the reality hours down to winter bridge filler, then CBS has three drama hours for Fall.

Verdict: Without knowing the syndication deals or the scheduling plans, this is a coin flip, and my flip comes up Canceled.

Blue Bloods

Pro: The ratings average is slightly higher than Hawaii Five-0’s.

Con: See Hawaii Five-0 – we just don’t know the syndication deals or scheduling plans.

Verdict: My coin flip comes up Renewed.

The Good Wife

Con: The 18-49 ratings just aren’t pretty.

Pro: Whatever financial reasoning led to the show’s renewal in previous years should still apply here.

Verdict: Renewed.

CSI

Con: Shows the network respects don’t get burned off in the holiday dead zone or on random nights.

Verdict: Canceled.

Battle Creek

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

The CW

iZombie

Pro: Fighting for the third best rated show on the network.

Con: On a network with no room, and too much of a WB skew to begin with.

Verdict: Renewed.

Hart of Dixie

Pro: The ratings weren’t terrible for Fridays, and there could be a financial boost to getting this closer to the preferred 88 episode number.

Con: There is just no room on the network for the show.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Messengers

Con: The ratings are terrible. The CW would just pick up one more CBS pilot if internal politics mattered.

Verdict: Canceled.

Fox

The Following

Con: The ratings are pretty questionable.

Pro: Is there a significant boost for four seasons (but far from 88 episodes) in syndication?

Verdict: Canceled.

The Mindy Project

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season.

Con: But not necessarily for 22 episodes or on the same network.

Verdict: Renewed (somewhere).

Weird Loners

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Bones

Pro: The show has survived everywhere on the schedule, and syndicated backend.

Con: The ratings really are bad, and Deschanel & Boreanaz could easily price themselves out of a job.

Verdict: Renewed, probably for a 13 episode midseason farewell.

Backstrom

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Simpsons

Pro: Ratings are fine, and episodes remain for next season.

Verdict: Renewed.

Family Guy

Pro: Ratings are fine, and an entire production run (DACX) has yet to air.

Verdict: (Effectively Already) Renewed.

NBC

State of Affairs

Con: The ratings were terrible. For a show following The Voice, they were look-away ugly.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Night Shift

Con: NBC has already ordered two medical procedurals. Those sorts of ratings following The Voice won’t air in the regular season again.

Pro: The real question is if the show will come back for Summer. If the financials made sense last year, they probably make sense this year – especially if NBC wants to see if any of that Voice-inflated audience comes back.

Verdict: Renewed.

Marry Me

Con: The ratings were bad. For a show following The Voice, they were terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

About a Boy

Con: Shows that get their orders cut and get pulled off the schedule usually don’t get renewed.

Pro: Given NBC’s comedy situation, anything is possible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Undateable

Con: For a show following The Voice, the ratings weren’t great.

Pro: “Not great” is the cream of the NBC comedy crop.

Verdict: Renewed. But I don’t expect to see it in Fall.

One Big Happy

Con: The ratings are terrible for a block leading out of The Voice.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Mysteries of Laura

Pro: By NBC’s standards, the ratings were merely mediocre.

Con: NBC just has too many pilots and pickups to stick with this.

Verdict: Canceled.

Constantine

Con: The ratings are terrible, even by Friday standards.

Verdict: Canceled.

AD: The Bible Continues

Con: Last week proved the ratings drop wasn’t due to The AMC Awards.

Pro: The last time a network didn’t renew a single rookie was NBC’s 75/76 season. If you are going to renew a show just for PR reasons, I can’t think of a better option than a show with a very short order, that won’t air until the end of March, in a timeslot you were filling with American Ninja Warrior airings and the 17th repeat of Bridesmaids.

Verdict: Renewed.

American Odyssey

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Note: The chart only lists “Official” Renewals & Cancellations, not (truthful) mentions in promos, social media, and talk shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

–
The cancellation bear made the change to his prediction for iZombie to certain to be renewed last week, and this week it made it into the headline. Even though last week’s ratings dipped, the bear sees no reason to chance his prediction.

Next week: Final % renewal chance guesses from the bear and @TVTomShaw.
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him.

If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do it. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. Just click here Follow @TheCancelBear !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:’https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

–
The cancellation bear made the change to his prediction for iZombie to certain to be renewed last week, and this week it made it into the headline. Even though last week’s ratings dipped, the bear sees no reason to chance his prediction.

Next week: Final % renewal chance guesses from the bear and @TVTomShaw.
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him.

If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do it. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. Just click here Follow @TheCancelBear !function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?’http’:’https’;if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+’://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js’;fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, ‘script’, ‘twitter-wjs’);
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

As nearly every media outlet has been posting a “Shows on the Bubble” gallery recently, I figured it was long past time for Bubble Watch to return. In too many cases though, the fate of a bubble show depends on the network’s overall schedule, so I want to start with a view of each network as a whole…

ABC

Pilots: 13 Dramas, 12 Comedies

Biggest question: What are the anchors for their comedy hours?

Second question: Will any bubble dramas survive?

With 12 comedy pilots, it is extremely likely ABC sticks with 4 comedy hours on the schedule. That’s good news for the existing shows that will start out those hours (The Middle, Last Man Standing). That’s less good news for the shows that would end those hours (Fresh Off the Boat, Cristela), that are now fighting with all those pilots to survive.

In a season where The Astronauts Wives Club and The Whispers never made it to the regular season schedule, ABC still felt the need to shoot twelve drama pilots. (It’s likely the proposed Mockingbird spin-off simply replaces Agent Carter as the Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.bridge.) Recent history would suggest ABC picks up at least 5 of those dramas, which should be the final nail in the coffins of Forever, American Crime, & Revenge.

CBS

Pilots: 8 Dramas (1 Series Order), 9 Comedies

Biggest question: Just what are the syndication deals for the CBS veterans?

The Good Wife. CSI. Hawaii Five-0. Blue Bloods. Frankly, ANY combination of renewals & cancellations for those four wouldn’t surprise me, as we have very little information on just what each of them actually costs CBS per episode, after their syndication and international sales deals are subtracted out.

Note that I said combination– someone will surely say “Why does CBS need to cancel any of them? Why can’t one or more just end up as next season’s The Mentalist?” To which I reply, look at how CSI ran out the string: with double episodes, during the late December holiday specials deadzone, and even once on a Tuesday. If that’s how CBS is treating a regular cost show, why on Earth would they spend money on a spackle show?

The CW

Pilots: 5 Dramas (3 WB, 2 CBS)

Biggest question: How do you fit new shows in with no room on the schedule?

With so many of their shows renewed, The CW has very little room to work with. If they launch just one new show Tuesdays@9 after The Flash, and move iZombie to, say, Thursdays at 9, then both Reign AND The 100 have to be moved off to Fridays/Spring/Summer (and Fridays already have ANTM for most of Fall). With that little space, I’d be surprised if The CW orders more than 2 of their pilots for next season, and launches more than one show in Fall.

Fox

Pilots: 6 Dramas (1 Series Order), 7 Comedies

Biggest question: Where and when does Empire return?

Second question: What does Fox do about Thursdays?

Empire wasn’t just the hit of the year – it arguably became the biggest premiere of the last half-decade over its run. It’s almost certain Fox will move the show to 8pm, and give a boost to some rookie afterward. The question is, how quickly can Fox get Empire back on the air (due to the musical numbers) – can they get a batch of episodes ready for Fall?

Meanwhile, Fox is now under a 1.0 average on Thursdays, the night with the highest ad rates of the week (due to movie and other weekend activity ads). Despite The Blacklist showing the perils of the idea, you really have to wonder if Fox won’t try to kill two birds with one stone and schedule Empire / Scream Queens for Thursday nights. That would actually be a positive for Bones’ chances – something has to air during the likely lengthy Winter hiatus of Empire… but that something could just be the audition rounds of American Idol, should it return.

Biggest question: With such a deluge of new shows, will any of them be any good?

For all of NBC’s troubles this year, they don’t have that many holes. Out of the 15 hours they need to fill before the NFL season ends, they already have 3 hours of The Voice, 5 renewed dramas, and at least 1 reality hour (Dateline). So for 6 hours (or less, if The Biggest Loser airs in Fall), NBC already has Heroes Reborn and the Neil Patrick Harris variety hour, whatever pilots they like, and Shades of Blue, Coach, & Telenovela waiting in the wings. (If the demo ratings weren’t enough, that’s not good news for The Mysteries of Lauras of the world.)

While I expect NBC to not abandon Sundays between the NFL playoffs and Easter as completely as they did this season, that still seems like an overabundance of product. Frankly, that’s to be expected: between the length remaining on his contract and his network’s performance, NBC Chairman Robert Greenblatt clearly has the hottest seat out of the five broadcast networks, and execs in those situations usually order in quantity, hoping to find a hit by pure numbers alone. Dividing their focus between that many new prospects may well result in the result they’re trying to avoid though…

Next Week: Deeper analysis on all the bubble candidates.

Note: The chart only lists “Official” Renewals & Cancellations, not (truthful) mentions in promos, social media, and talk shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

–The Messengers 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere ratings were low even by CW standards, but so are the ratings for all the summer shows on the CW. The cancellation bear considers The Messengers to be a summer show since the majority of its episodes will air after the season ends on May 20.

While there is no chance The Messengers airs again during the CW regular season, might it return next summer, even with its terrible ratings? The bear doesn’t know, and the bear doesn’t care. He doesn’t bother predicting the future of summer shows, he prefers his vacation hibernation.

The observant will note that the bear has changed his prediction for iZombie to “certain to be renewed”. It’s now the CW’s 3rd highest rated show in 2015. Whatever horse trading may happen between WB produced and CBS produced shows, there’s no way it’s getting canceled with those ratings.
–

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:The Messengers will not be fighting for a spot on The CW’s schedule next season, as the show premiered to a mere 0.3 rating. The CW knew what it was doing when it buried the show, and will not have to wait until the end of its run to make any decisions.

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

]]>http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cw-predictions-the-messengers-ratings-were-terrible-just-like-the-rest-of-the-cws-summer-shows/feed/0stevebaronbored-bear-animal-bearCW Predictions: ‘The Messengers’ Ratings Were Terrible, Just Like The Rest Of The CW’s Summer Showshttp://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cw-predictions-the-messengers-ratings-were-terrible-just-like-the-rest-of-the-cws-summer-shows-2/
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cw-predictions-the-messengers-ratings-were-terrible-just-like-the-rest-of-the-cws-summer-shows-2/#respondTue, 21 Apr 2015 15:07:46 +0000http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/?p=389032]]>Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCwShows&#8217; rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 19, 2015):

–The Messengers 0.3 adults 18-49 premiere ratings were low even by CW standards, but so are the ratings for all the summer shows on the CW. The cancellation bear considers The Messengers to be a summer show since the majority of its episodes will air after the season ends on May 20.

While there is no chance The Messengers airs again during the CW regular season, might it return next summer, even with its terrible ratings? The bear doesn’t know, and the bear doesn’t care. He doesn’t bother predicting the future of summer shows, he prefers his vacation hibernation.

The observant will note that the bear has changed his prediction for iZombie to “certain to be renewed”. It’s now the CW’s 3rd highest rated show in 2015. Whatever horse trading may happen between WB produced and CBS produced shows, there’s no way it’s getting canceled with those ratings.
–

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:The Messengers will not be fighting for a spot on The CW’s schedule next season, as the show premiered to a mere 0.3 rating. The CW knew what it was doing when it buried the show, and will not have to wait until the end of its run to make any decisions.

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 12, 2015):

iZombie finally aired without The Flash as a lead-in… and scored the same 0.7 rating as last week. That leaves the (WB-distributed) show in very interesting territory, as it is basically tied with The Vampie Diaries as the network’s #3 rated show – but on a network with very little space to work going into next season AND too much of a WB skew to begin with. (Furthermore, according to The Futon Critic’s always informative DEVWATCH, the network’s five pilots for next season are already skewed towards the WB, 3-2, with one of those pilots being another likely-to-be-greenlit DC Comics spin-off.)

Internal politics be damned, I just can’t see a tied-for-#3 show on a network getting the axe, but this one will go down to the wire – if iZombie drops into the The Originals/The 100/Jane the Virgin muck, all bets are off.

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 12, 2015):

iZombie finally aired without The Flash as a lead-in… and scored the same 0.7 rating as last week. That leaves the (WB-distributed) show in very interesting territory, as it is basically tied with The Vampie Diaries as the network’s #3 rated show – but on a network with very little space to work going into next season AND too much of a WB skew to begin with. (Furthermore, according to The Futon Critic’s always informative DEVWATCH, the network’s five pilots for next season are already skewed towards the WB, 3-2, with one of those pilots being another likely-to-be-greenlit DC Comics spin-off.)

Internal politics be damned, I just can’t see a tied-for-#3 show on a network getting the axe, but this one will go down to the wire – if iZombie drops into the The Originals/The 100/Jane the Virgin muck, all bets are off.

–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 5, 2015):

–
With its ratings still hugging the CW 2015 scripted ratings average, iZombie still looks likely to be renewed.

If it is renewed, given all the other CW renewals already, the CW will probably air two hours of new scripted show episodes on Friday for all/most of next season (vs. just 10 episodes of Hart of Dixie this season) to warehouse the low rated returning (mostly CBS produced) shows like Reign.
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
–
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
–Notes:

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

–
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
–(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
–How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.