A Proposal for a Simple Methodology to Enhance Transparency and Comparability of NDC Targets and Their Progress Reporting under the Paris Agreement

The NDC Guidance on the “formulation and communication of the NDC mitigation target(s)” (5-year cycle) and the Transparency Framework Guidelines dealing with the “reporting and review related to tracking progress of the NDC mitigation target” (2-year cycle) are essential in the detailed rule design of the Paris Agreement, scheduled for adoption at COP24.

This paper proposes an approach to the design of the contents of these reporting processes, addressing the issues of greenhouse gas measurement, reporting and verification (GHG MRV).

The paper proposes the use of quantification methods to enhance transparency and comparability to attain the following objectives:

I. To be a descriptive element of the communication of the NDC (5-year cycle) and the national report (2-year cycle) of each country, which are mandatory under the Paris Agreement;
II. To be the basis of the international review and compliance facilitation processes; and
III. To enable a country’s policymakers to conduct self-analysis and gain an accurate under­standing of the situation to facilitate planning and implementing domestic policies.

The contents are as follows:
(A) A simple method to evaluate the progress of achieving NDC mitigation target(s);
(B) Necessary information for well-defined NDC target(s) and clear communication;
(C) Method to analyse the status of progress towards achieving NDC targets; and
(D) Method to describe the status of progress in the biennial reporting on NDC mitigation target(s).

The reporting process itself is also intended to be an exercise for capacity building.

Regarding (A), this paper proposes a method to compare progress between countries, using a 0% baseline for the latest year the NDC was submitted and 100% for each indicator’s target level.

Regarding (B), the paper proposes to break down the NDC mitigation target into various components. Then, the necessary information is to be well-defined, with items added such as those for the plan-do-check-act (PDCA) cycle elements, so as to facilitate domestic measures.

(C) proposes the method of factor analysis, which can be used as a tool to understand the NDC mitigation targets correctly from past trends, using a simple formula.

(D) proposes additional necessary report items in the progress report of the 2-year cycle, including the sharing of lessons learned.

The items proposed here do not all necessarily need to be obligatory. However, the exercise of preparing the NDC and following the proposed procedures to the extent possible will enable the officials in charge to understand their country’s progress and facilitate consideration of appropriate countermeasures.