Quotes of the day

posted at 8:01 pm on February 23, 2014 by Allahpundit

“This is a major defeat,” said a senior Kremlin adviser, adding that the events of the last 24 hours bitterly remind Russian officials of the 2004 Orange Revolution, when Mr. Yanukovych saw his fraud-tainted election victory overturned after massive street protests brought a pro-western government to power.

“We made the same mistakes again” this time, said the Kremlin adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “For us, the conclusion is that the West succeeded in engineering a coup d’état.”

Just what Russia’s reaction to this apparent setback would be wasn’t immediately clear. Western officials seemed to be going out of their way not to provoke Moscow. Some Kremlin aides in recent weeks had suggested Moscow could intervene to protect pro-Russian regions if Ukraine were to slide into civil war, but there is been no indication of high-level Kremlin support for such a move.

***

Fraternal assistance — This is a Soviet expression, once used to justify the Soviet invasions of Prague in 1968 and Afghanistan in 1979. “Fraternal assistance” was intended to prevent Soviet puppet states from being overthrown, whether violently or peacefully. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin called Ukraine a “fraternal” country, hinting that he sees it as a puppet state. This week, a senior Russian parliamentarian declared that he and his colleagues are “prepared to give all the necessary assistance should the fraternal Ukrainian people ask for it.” This may well be the cue for pro-Russian organizations inside Ukraine to ask for intervention.

Anti-terrorist operation — This is a Putin-era expression, used to justify the Russian invasion of Chechnya in 1999. An “anti-terrorist operation,” in this particular context, means that anything is permitted: The term granted Russian soldiers carte blanche to destroy Grozny, the Chechen capital. This is why so many reacted with horror earlier this week when the Ukrainian defense ministry warned that the army “might be used in anti-terrorist operations on the territory of Ukraine.”

***

While many in Kiev are celebrating today, the situation in some other parts of the country still appear tense. For an example, look toward Crimea. The video below shows a small anti-government group being violently harassed after trying to honor those who died in the Maidan protests – they’re shouted down, called “fascists,” and eventually beaten before police step in. As the Guardian’s Shaun Walker, who tweeted the video, explains, it looks “extremely ominous.”…

The situation is complicated by the fact that many Russians view Crimea as part of Russia: one recent poll found that 56 percent of Russians view Crimea as a Russian territory – a far larger percentage than the number who viewed Chechnya, inside Russian federation borders, as part of Russia (39 percent).

***

Since the collapse of Communism in 1991, the US and its European allies have seen keeping Ukraine independent of Russia as a key result of victory in the Cold War…

Bill Clinton famously declared that keeping Crimea in Ukraine and away from Russia was in America’s national interest…

But what complicates matters and makes them so dangerous now is that the most militant pro-Western protesters are violently anti-Russian…

The course of the protest has very much been influenced by the presence of a rival project, based in Moscow, called the Eurasian Union. This is an international commercial and political union that does not yet exist but that is to come into being in January 2015. The Eurasian Union, unlike the European Union, is not based on the principles of the equality and democracy of member states, the rule of law, or human rights.

On the contrary, it is a hierarchical organization, which by its nature seems unlikely to admit any members that are democracies with the rule of law and human rights. Any democracy within the Eurasian Union would pose a threat to Putin’s rule in Russia. Putin wants Ukraine in his Eurasian Union, which means that Ukraine must be authoritarian, which means that the Maidan must be crushed…

The protests in the Maidan, we are told again and again by Russian propaganda and by the Kremlin’s friends in Ukraine, mean the return of National Socialism to Europe. The Russian foreign minister, in Munich, lectured the Germans about their support of people who salute Hitler. The Russian media continually make the claim that the Ukrainians who protest are Nazis. Naturally, it is important to be attentive to the far right in Ukrainian politics and history. It is still a serious presence today, although less important than the far right in France, Austria, or the Netherlands. Yet it is the Ukrainian regime rather than its opponents that resorts to anti-Semitism, instructing its riot police that the opposition is led by Jews. In other words, the Ukrainian government is telling itself that its opponents are Jews and us that its opponents are Nazis.

***

A real democracy in Ukraine is an existential threat to the entire system that Vladimir Putin has built since 2000. Ironically because Putin is right – most Russians regard Ukraine as a kin state, or not really a different state at all. They are used to stepping in tandem; so if something changes in Ukraine, why not in Russia too? And now the dominoes might fall in the other direction. Other Maidans might appear in other neighbouring states – maybe first in Moldova where the Russia-backed Communist Party was hoping to return to power in elections due in November…

So the new government in Ukraine, however it’s made up, will be given the briefest of ritualistic honeymoons before Russia uses every instrument at its disposal to try to make it fail. Unfortunately, Russia holds most of the economic cards. Ukraine’s coffers are almost empty, and the old guard is busy looting what is left. It has less than $18bn (£10.9bn) in hard currency reserves, its currency is dropping and immediate debt-repayment needs are more than $10bn…

And if the West is serious about an alternative deal, Ukraine needs a lot of money fast. Fortunately, the West would no longer be throwing it down the black hole created by the old regime. Instead the money would support the kind of kamikaze leader Ukraine has never had in the past. Politicians were reluctant to make difficult choices and lose elections, because they’d never get back into power. Now Russia and the old regime will back any populist who promises to keep government subsidies flowing; but an honest kamikaze might just win the long-term credit and at least write his place in the history books.

***

To restate this dilemma in somewhat different terms, Ukrainian society is unable to produce a strong and united government that could limit the influence of foreign interests and lobbies that the Ukrainian state and people would follow a consistent course toward either Moscow or Brussels, much less find some kind of effective pathway in between. Meanwhile, given the inability of internal forces to set a firm course, Russia lacks the resources and the West lacks the will to attach Ukraine firmly and irrevocably to either camp. Thus we see what we see: a succession of failed governments as the country flounders and slithers in the mist…

Moscow cannot do the job without forcibly suppressing the western half of Ukraine. Such a war would be the most dangerous crisis in Europe since 1945 and one wonders whether the Putin government could survive a catastrophically expensive war and the ensuing isolation. Unless the intervention was lightening fast and the opposition was quickly suppressed, the cost of the war and the cost of pacifying and developing Ukraine in the aftermath would almost certainly wreck the Russian economy.

On the other hand, Putin would have grave difficulties surviving the loss of all Ukraine. The example of a popular revolution against a Moscow-leaning government is horrifying and destabilizing enough. Hatches are being battened down from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok as the FSB (ex-KGB) does its best to prevent any kind of contagion. The consequence of a united Ukraine joining the West would be infinitely worse. Putin’s dream of a Eurasian Union would suffer an irrevocable and decisive defeat. The loss of Crimea would infuriate Russian nationalists beyond endurance, and Putin would look helpless and weak in a political culture that worships only strength and success.

***

So why did Russia back off? The swaggering bombast of recent days has vanished. It sent to the talks one of the few figures in Russian public life likely to be acceptable to the protesters and the West—the human-rights ombudsman Vladimir Lukin. He came as a witness, not as a participant to the deal reached on Friday; Russia says through diplomatic channels that though it is not a party to that agreement, it will not sabotage it. The Kremlin seems to have stood down its separatists in Crimea, a stronghold of Russian interests (and home to a large Russian naval base). Does it prize Ukrainian territorial integrity more than the chance to meddle?

One explanation is that Mr Putin, not for the first time, misread the situation. The Orange Revolution of 2004-5 was sparked by Mr Yanukovych’s election-rigging—enthusiastically supported and advised by Russia. Perhaps the Kremlin had been fooled by its own propaganda, in which the protesters were merely a unrepresentative bunch of Western-financed anarchists and fascists. Perhaps it was worried by the prospect of chaos in its largest European neighbour. In the event of collapse or upheaval, refugees would be heading north as well as west…

It is now clear that the EU miscalculated by delivering an us-or-them ultimatum last autumn, without offering Ukraine desperately needed ready cash or the clear and certain prospect of EU membership. As the Ukraine expert Andrew Wilson notes, the EU took a baguette to a knife fight. In recent weeks, it has done better. The deal signed Friday was a real success for the personal diplomacy of the German, Polish and French foreign ministers, and the argreement to release Yulia Tymoshenko was another positive sign. But does a Europe weakened by the Eurozone crisis have the strategic imagination and resolve for the long term?

***

Despite the blunders of the European Union — which courted Kiev without seeming to realize that Russia might make a counteroffer — Putin is struggling to win a battle for influence in a country that both the Romanovs and the Soviets dominated with ease.

And the struggle is particularly telling given that the Great Recession exposed the E.U. as a spectacularly misgoverned institution, whose follies consigned many of its member states to economic disarray. Yet even that record hasn’t persuaded the majority of Ukrainians to warm to Moscow’s embrace instead. It takes much more than mere misgovernment to make the European project less attractive than Putin’s authoritarian alternative…

The lesson in both [Ukraine and Venezuela] is not that late-modern liberal civilization necessarily deserves uncontested dominance.

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I just saw this a few minutes ago. She’s catching hell for it on Twitter. WTH was she thinking? Oh, wait, she’s an Obama appointee, she wasn’t thinking.

Flora Duh on February 24, 2014 at 12:37 AM

looks like she’s not good at tweeting. It turns out she’s giving a lecture at the DP foundation, and her point is something about how his parents have done good things in his name to reconcile his loss. Still, not good at tweeting…she should number the tweets so that people can see the flow.

Sevastopol already voted TODAY to oust Ukrainian government officials and voted in a RUSSIAN NATIVE mayor. Which Ukraine’s law has not allowed before, all mayors were to be appointed by Kiev. So, its a direct “F#ck You!” to Kiev and Maidan. And a “let’s see what you will do about it”, given a large military base ready to stand its ground on the side of RUSSIA.

Odessa and Kerch are on the same path at this point. Will most liekly happen in the next day or two, they have RUSSIAN territories for centuries. Russian natives and speakers.

In Khar’kov, mayor is doing all he can to keep locals from “taking care of Maidan visitors”, but has already stated that “events on Maidan WILL NOT BE TOLERATED here.” Expect another couple of days before locals lose patience and wipe out the “visitors”.

Governors of Western Ukraine’s regions have resigned, no news here, really since Lvov and surrounding towns (can’t really call anything but given their size and unimportance). No industry in Western Ukraine whatsoever save for Lvov’s heavily GERMAN tourism in recent years and no wonder for a city that was known as LEMBERG until the 1939 divide.

ALL Eastern and Southern regions stated they will not tolerate “fascists in Kiev”. ALL RUSSIAN SPEAKING.

Whoever thinks this is over really needs to take a reality check. I have not seen Putin in Sochi since Thursday, when Maidan really exploded, and he was seen in Sochi each and every day up to that point. So, something IS brewing and my suspicion is that West REALLY won’t like the outcome.

Looks like Ukraine WILL split along Nazi axis, that is if Russia decides to let the Western part go along on its way. There is really nothing there for any country as a bonus whereas Eastern and Southern regions are all income producing with coal, minerals and heavy tourism in the South.

And the latest lamentation of the “peaceful protesters”, after all they have done in the past 2 months for THEIR LEADERS and PARTIES? Yep, you could have guessed it, TIMOSHENKO people have already taken over most of the place pushing aside the 2 other “leaders” and their people. So, instead of Yanukovich “people” will now have just another usurper, similar in every way.

This will get interesting pretty fast even without Russia getting involved. Or rather, before Russia gets involved. Whichever happens first.

maybe to be on the podium with his 2 cars owned at DEI..??
JR and Mikey

going2mars on February 24, 2014 at 12:44 AM

.
I already stated that I had followed this sport very closely, from 1979 till about 1995, then rather ‘loosely’ from 1996 till Earnhardt was killed. I’ve seen it time and again.
Drivers absolutely fight to the finish line, all the way back through the field, purely to at least get the max amount of points they can.
Hang yeah … a couple of points difference in February can be the difference between winning “The CUP” in November, or not.

I have a strange feeling that I may not be watching to many races for awhile. Spent all day today sandblasting 396 heads and intake getting them ready for a custom build. Tomorrow I do the block, then magnflus it, then we start the line boring and cylinder bore. I think I’m scheduled to port the heads tomorrow as well.

On Sunday evening, award-winning actor and prominent left-wing activist Alec Baldwin announced that he was leaving “public life”–and blamed “Roger Ailes. And Fox. And Breitbart.” In an extended rant to Joe Hogan, posted on vulture.com and published in New York magazine, Baldwin recounted his run-ins with paparazzi, his gay slur controversies, and his ill-fated talk show on MSNBC–but he reserved special resentment for Breitbart.

Indeed, Baldwin is intellectually bankrupt. He is an actor, but other than that, he has nothing but empty echoing space between his ears. He couldn’t intellectually argue his way out of a wet paper bag with a chainsaw and a stick of dynamite.

Indeed, Baldwin is intellectually bankrupt. He is an actor, but other than that, he has nothing but empty echoing space between his ears. He couldn’t intellectually argue his way out of a wet paper bag with a chainsaw and a stick of dynamite.

oscarwilde on February 24, 2014 at 1:03 AM

Did you read this?

“In the New Media culture, anything good you do is tossed in a pit, and you are measured by who you are on your worst day….But people suspect that whatever good you do, you are faking. You’re that guy. You’re that guy that says this. There is a core of outlets that are pushing these stories out. Breitbart clutters the blogosphere with ‘Alec Baldwin, he’s the Devil, he’s Fidel Baldwin.’”

Gee, other than the knock on Breitbart, that sounds like what we on the right have been saying for years, doesn’t it?

“In the New Media culture, anything good you do is tossed in a pit, and you are measured by who you are on your worst day….But people suspect that whatever good you do, you are faking. You’re that guy. You’re that guy that says this. There is a core of outlets that are pushing these stories out. Breitbart clutters the blogosphere with ‘Alec Baldwin, he’s the Devil, he’s Fidel Baldwin.’”

Gee, other than the knock on Breitbart, that sounds like what we on the right have been saying for years, doesn’t it?

every lap…
was a good race…for a restrictor race…
they did stop the two car tango…I hated that..
seemed like you could move around a bit….pass …drafting..
dale out drove them when it counted…
big day for Hendricks motor sports….3 cars in the top 5

I have a strange feeling that I may not be watching to many races for awhile. Spent all day today sandblasting 396 heads and intake getting them ready for a custom build. Tomorrow I do the block, then magnflus it, then we start the line boring and cylinder bore. I think I’m scheduled to port the heads tomorrow as well.

oscarwilde on February 24, 2014 at 12:59 AM

…..I remember how nice and Fat the old Chevy 350 Blocks were…..we could bore those things our forever and put in oversized pistons…..they were so thick!…….we could take them up two notches or more!

question
how many looney wanna be despot dictator liberal types
in America…look at the Palace near Kiev and say to themselves..
I could do that….
I could take control of the whole country…
theres an opening at the top…!!!

like what does bill Clinton think of when he sees the Palace empty
….he hears the power vacuum …

“Peaceful protester” from Kiev came to Kerch (Crimea) in hopes of stirring up trouble there. Find someone who knows Russian and ask them to translate. Although you can clearly hear “fascist”, its the same in any language. If not for cops there would be deaths.

Similar reaction in other Eastern Ukraine cities, although Khar’kov mayor seems to play both side and so far has protected visitors from Kiev.

I knew a couple of Ukrainian emigres, and met others through them. They hate Russia and Russians with passion commensurate with the murder by starvation inflicted on their homeland by Stalin. They aren’t so much in love with Europe as seeing it as their insurance of independence. Bad policy doesn’t discourage those who have lived under the murderous boot Putin seeks to reimpose.

The government’s surprise resignation, announced by el-Beblawi in a live Monday TV broadcast, comes amid a host of strikes, including one by public transport workers and garbage collectors. An acute shortage of cooking gas has also been making front page news the past few days.

For the first time, a majority of Americans think President Barack Obama is not respected among world leaders, according to a new poll that found opinion has plunged “dramatically” in the last year.

Flora Duh on February 24, 2014 at 7:52 AM

I have an account on live leak. smoothsailing emailed me a link to those guys and they really allow anything to be posted and it’s a great way to keep up with what’s happening in Syria. the comments there are pretty bad for obama. Almost to a person, the foreigners who drop comments talk about obama’s and Kerry’s interventions with as deep a disgust as anything I’ve read folks abroad say about Bush.

You also have what is obviously a few damage control commenters who do nothing but answer comments about obama, The meme is to push the blame to Republican “NEOCON’s”. It doesn’t help that they post videos there of McCain visiting a known Al Nusrah commander.

(I also read you are a Gordon fan. We need to keep this on the low side and figure out our secret handshake for raceday so we don’t get beat up) :-) I’m thinking salting our comments with “24″s and I’m sure no one will notice. It would be like this …

Lanceman, if I’ve told you once, I’ve told you “24″ times that nonpartisan is not Allahpundit.” huh?

I don’t see Ukraine clamoring to return to the corrupt rule of Tymoshenko and she is in poor health. She was as big a looter as Yanukovytch has been.

I think Ukraine wants something other than what Russia or EU/US wants to offer them. Maybe they really don’t know exactly what they want. But in the turmoil, I see the western Ukrainians moving toward the EU by default or in any direction other than toward Russia. Except for the southeastern Russian-speaking areas that are firmly wedded to Russia in culture and outlook. This area of Ukraine including the Crimea was originally a federal Soviet republic which was joined to modern Ukraine back in the Sixties and it is majority Russian and they hold most of the country’s industry and wealth. In much the same way, the South Ossetians and Abkhazians were joined to the Georgian soviet republic. The point being, these are not historic nation-states. As in the Mideast, outsiders drew up the lines on these maps, often for reasons that are long outmoded.

As is so often the case in this region, populations and territories get transferred about willy-nilly at the conniving of the Great Powers. This meddling in the region has gone on for centuries with an extended pause during the Cold War.

As we saw in Georgia in 2008 with the Abkhazi and South Ossetians, Russia isn’t afraid to partition a vital country to keep it from going to EU/NATO. They could do the same in eastern Ukraine. This is very much a part of the bitter legacy of the West’s meddling in Serbia and partitioning off Kosovo as a new nation. Putin and other top-ranking Russian pols have spoken to this topic repeatedly. Putin can scarcely allow to let all of Ukraine go to the EU but he doesn’t have to scheme in haste.