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NFL Free Agency, or Christmas as it’s known around the TOJ office, begins March 11th, 2014 at 4:00 PM. We’ve been chronicling the available free agents that the Jets could potentially target all off-season long so far (we only have Safeties left), but now it’s time to focus on the actual holes that the Jets will have to fill. I’ll be outlining the current 53 man roster (including players on IR) with predictions on whether they will be wearing Green and White next season and, if not, where they will end up. If I note that they will be released or traded, the cap savings will be written at in parenthesis (all cap numbers are from Spotrac.com). The second part of this two part series will deal with how I would ideally fill the holes the Jets will need to fill, very similarly to this amazing piece done by Cole Patterson. As always, your comments will be appreciated.

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Author: Dalbin Osorio

Dalbin Osorio is a Case Planner for Graham-Windham, New York's oldest child welfare agency. He is, also, a student at the Silberman School of Social Work at Hunter College. Dalbin graduated from Monroe College with a degree in Business Administration. A 3 sport utility man in high school (think a mix of Jerome WIlliams, Brad Smith, and Jayson Nix), he joined TOJ in 2013.
View all posts by Dalbin Osorio

We need to get Austin Howard re-signed. I could deal with bringing pace back as a backup. I wouldn’t trust him next season as our starter. Can the Jets rely on Antwan Barnes to stay healthy next season? Another guard should also be a priority of ours.

Ugga

Center Dalton Freeman was left off this list. He arguably out played Mangold in camp last summer before getting hurt. No, I’m not saying Freeman is better or replaces Mangold, but he’s a hell of a lot better than Schlauderaff.

mike

really? the best option is to bring back the entire line except for the most consistent contributor (howard) who’s still going to demand less money than he’s worth? tough sell for a team that has some money to spend, also for a team that’s paid mark sanchez first round money for six straight years.
additionally, i don’t think trading kyle wilson is wise. cb depth is vital and wilson, like him or not, can hold his own at this point in his career.

KAsh

I think you are thinking about this the wrong way. You have 60 players on that list, and between trades, cuts, and banishment to the practice squad, you are getting rid of twenty of them, a full third of all players. That is not how you plan for the offseason. The roster is going to balloon first to 90+ players, and only then get reduced to 53 (and eight PS spots) through competition. Making predictions in February about who will be on the practice squad in September is nonsense. You do not even know if they are going to be challenged for their spot on the team.

The period before the start of free agency should be the time to get under the cap and deal with the contracts that take the most money for the least performance on the team. Beyond that, I expect nobody to get released and few of the cheap free agents to leave, too. So, I expect Simms, Gates, McIntyre (an RFA), Lankster, and Quigley to not go anywhere, and even somebody like Cumberland, who will not be in high demand, to resign.

On a side note, I am amazed that you think Ducasse will be resigned.

Bryan Lewis

How can I take your piece seriously when Jets extended Simms in January on purpose before he was exclusive rights free agent. Did you even bother to do any background work? Nonsense writing. Didn’t even to bother to go past Qbs, like reading a Cimini piece

Lidman

Interested to hear why you think the NYJ won’t sign Austin Howard. I think continuity on the OL is paramount. Colon’s injury makes him a question mark. I can’t see adding another one by not signing a player the team developed. I think there is a lot of cap space out there, more than people realize, so that might factor in. I think a guy like Cromartie will get more than $5mm.

KAsh

@Lidman

I am going to assume here, but I think Dalbin is going off a rumor that Howard wants $7 million/year and predicting that Idzik will refuse to pay him that amount.

Chris j

This article blows sorry

Lidman

Kash..could be, but this is exactly why I think the team has to be careful about ‘overpaying’ at the WR position. If you lose Howard, now you either bring in a FA, or draft a T. Either way, you lose continuity and a player you developed. I’d rather see them pay up to keep Howard, than take a chance on a WR, who simply improves the overall talent at the position.

Joe Caporoso

Bryan – If you think the Jets would hesitate for a second to cut Simms this summer with his miniscule contract number, if a veteran and mid-round draft pick outplayed him, you are wrong. They extended his minimum level contract for insurance. He is a training camp arm, who will be competing for the #3 QB job.

They took 2 years to develop him, and he’s performed well and only about to turn 27. Give the guy 8-9 guaranteed, and 4/24 and move on. You let him walk and you’ve created another hole on your offensive line.

If they let him walk, I hope it’s only because they believe, and more importantly are correct, that someone from the Aboushi, Campbell, Ijana triumvirant is ready to step in. On a number of TOJ posts people bring up Mangold and ‘Brick no longer being elite and the need for the NYJ to bring in some youth on the OL. Letting Howard go, leaves the right side of the OL as a question mark and, I think, makes you more reliant on ‘Brick and Mangold, no? I mean are they going to go bargain basement shopping, in FA, to fill RT? After the Ducasse and Winters picks, would they be comfortable trusting a 2nd or 3rd rounder to man that spot?

I think they’d be penny wise, pound foolish to let Howard walk, and then overpay for a WR, with limited upside.

Lidman

I was responding to Kash with the above post.

KAsh

@Lidman

I am as surprised about Howard as I am about some of the other conclusions on that list. There are just too many holes. This is not even a money issue; this is a continuity issue. Any year, you should expect to turn over 10-20% of your roster, 5-10 guys. This list overturns 20 guys, and that much chaos will destroy the development of most of the units on the team.

KAsh

@Lidman

I am as surprised about Howard as I am about some of the other conclusions on that list. There are just too many holes. This is not even a money issue; this is a continuity issue. Any year, you should expect to turn over 10-20% of your roster, 5-10 guys. This list overturns 20 guys, and that much chaos will destroy the development of most of the units on the team.

@Joe

The important part of your statement is “if a veteran and mid-round draft pick outplayed [Simms].” A veteran like Vick or Schaub? Sure. They may even unseat Geno. But Simms will give a mid-round pick a run for his money. Thinking that the draft pick will just walk over him is a really biased comparison of Simms to the rookies coming out of college.

Dalbin

Thanks guys for reading. It’s a lot of y’all, so I’ll try and just provide a general answer to the questions. Ok, the roster turnover is in part because I do believe Idzik will turn the roster, especially the bottom of it, over. The Jets will have 12 draft picks; I expect all 12 to stick because they’re cheap and they’ll have a chance to be developed much like Seattle did. Remember, Seattle led the league in transactions during Carroll, Schneider, and Idzik’s first year together. I am basing losing Howard off the idea that his agent is going to try and get a big contract. I think the Jets should pay him but if Howars has someone offer him $8-9M, you let him walk because this offseason should also be about setting yourself up for future financial flexibility. I think Matt Simms gets cut, because I think the Jets add a draft pick and a veteran (more in Part 2). Cro’s estimated contract was a base value, but I do think he comes back with an incentive filled deal. I think Wilson could be dealt this offseason, but it’s just as likely that he stays. He’s entering the final year of his deal and I don’t think he’s coming back. I, also, don’t presume that this is 100% right, because I could be 100% wrong. These are more my predictions and I hope I’ve explained some of it. I, also, think it’ll make more sense with Part 2. And, for the two that responded with their remarks, I appreciate y’all taking the time to read.

Joe Caporoso

If the Jets spend a 3rd or 4th round pick on a QB, they’d have to get blown out of the water by Simms to get pushed off the roster.

Harold

Just FYI

Ellis Lankster is an UFA

PC3

Howard should be resigned, would be stupid to let him go. Landry is a FA and I would let him walk and look to upgrade his spot.

KAsh

Landry is signed through 2014.

And Dalbin, you have the front office release or let walk 16 players this offseason. Ask any business analyst: a company that fires or does not renew the contracts of over a quarter of its staff is either paring down because it sees rocky years ahead or is being gutted and its parts sold off.

This is the plan for a declining or a bottom-dwelling franchise. It is a bigger condemnation of Rex Ryan and his staff than not renewing the coaches’ contracts would have been. It is one notch away from simply firing Rex after the season, tantamount to saying “You get to stay, Rex, but here is the new team you will be working with!” No matter how you fill the holes, this is a bad idea.

Nikolas

The writer seems overly enthusiastic in trimming the “fat”. But in teams sports (where the goal is short-term) everybody is not replaceable and continuity does count for something.
Teams that are managed as “cutthroat business” eventually cease to be teams. And for those who think otherwise, it is only a matter of time before they discover that the only “jacket” that fits “all” is a straitjacket.