The Triumph of Human Freedom: THE PLAIN TRUTH by Judge Napolitano 8/18/11

In Feb. 2009 President Barack Obama’s Gallup Poll approval rating on the economy was at its highest at 59 percent and his disapproval rating was at its lowest of 30 percent. The official unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in Jan 2009. In Aug. 2011 Obama’s Gallup Poll approval rating on the economy was 26%, a new low, and his disapproval rating was 71%, a new high. The July 2011 unemployment rate was 9.1%. The unemployment rate has been over 8% for the last 31 months. Obama’s overall job approval rating according to the Gallup’s daily three-day rolling average tracking poll of Aug. 11-13 dipped below 40 percent for the first time when it hit a new low of 39 percent. It fell again on Aug. 20 to 38 percent.

Unemployment Rate Percent from Jan. 2001-Aug. 2011

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor

In the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Aug. 23, 2011 President Obama also hit a new low on the Presidential Approval Index of -26 with 45 percent strongly disapproving and 19 percent strongly approving. Rasmussen Reports on Aug. 23, 2011 that among likely voters Obama is at 39 percent and Paul at 38 percent. In a matchup between Obama and a generic Republican candidate among likely voters, Obama is at 43 percent and the generic Republican at 48 percent.

The Misery Index is an economic indicator that is the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates. When President Obama entered office, his Misery Index stood at 7.73 percent. Today it is over 12.7 percent. Obama’s average Misery index is 10.52 which is greater than George W. Bush’s average Misery Index of 8.11 and Bill Clinton’s average misery index of 7.8 percent.

Should the U.S. economy enter another recession, the unemployment rate will most likely again exceed 10 percent. Obama’s approval rating on the economy will most likely fall even lower and his Misery Index will be even higher. However, it is unlikely that Obama’s Misery Index will beat President Jimmy Carter’s June 1980 record Misery Index of 21.98. Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in the 1980 presidential election with 489 electoral votes and 43,903,230 popular votes to Jimmy Carter’s 49 electoral votes and 35,480,115 popular votes—a landslide Republican victory over an incumbent Democratic president.

Jobs and the economy will be the number one political issue in the 2012 Presidential election. The leading Republican candidates, former Massachusetts’s Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Texas Congressman Ron Paul and Minnesotan Congresswoman Michele Bachmann have been very critical of President Obama’s performance in terms of job creation and the growth in the economy measured by the Gross Domestic Product.

A television attack ad paid for by Romney ends with the tagline, “Obama isn’t working”, with a photo of an unemployment office with a long twisting line of Americans looking for jobs. This is one of a series of one minute attacks ads where the phrase, “Obama isn’t working” is repeated and the employment situation prior to the Obama administration is compared with the employment situation today in a particular city or state. Another attack ad in the series is directed at college students and begins with Obama promising students at the University of Maryland a better future in 2009 and ends with the questions, “Where is the opportunity? Where are the jobs?”

Perry recently entered the presidential race and does not have any Obama attack ads to date. However, Perry in a recent speech to the South Carolina GOP blasted Obama’s record on job creation comparing it to his record on job creation in Texas. Perry stated “The fact is one in six work eligible Americans cannot find a full time job. That is not a recovery, it is an economic disaster.” Perry continued that “we tried for two and half years government trying to create jobs. It is time for the private sector to be given the chance to create jobs.” Perry is proud of his job creation record in Texas and pointed out that “since June of 2009 my home state has created 40 percent of all new jobs created in America.”

Paul has a one minute TV attack ad which asserts that he was the one “voting against every tax increase, every unbalanced budget, every time, standing up to the Washington machine, guiding by principle, Ron Paul who will stop the spending, save the dollar, create jobs, bring peace, the one who will restore liberty. Ron Paul the one who can beat Obama and restore America now.”

Bachmann in an interview on Face the Nation emphasized that she is the chief author of two bills that would repeal Obamacare (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act)and the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Companies are telling her “that those bills are leading them not to be able to create jobs.” Bachmann also favors “repeal of the existing tax code in its current form, it is 3.8 million words”; “we need a tax code that is job friendly, this is not a job friendly tax code. When you have one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world at 34 percent that is not going to incentivize people to start new businesses.”

President Obama announced that he will release his new jobs plan after Labor Day. He said “I will be putting forward when they come back in September a very specific plan to boost the economy, to create jobs, and control our deficit.” Two of the specifics of Obama’s plan that have leaked to the press include an extension of unemployment benefits and extension of the payroll tax cut. The Romney and Paul ads, Perry speech, Bachmann interview and Obama announcement can be viewed in their entirety on YouTube.com with links to them on www.pronkpops.wordpress.com .

In a recent Gallup Poll released on Aug. 22, President Obama is running neck and neck with the top four Republican candidates. Romney leads Obama 48 percent to 46 percent. Perry and Obama are tied in the poll at 47 percent each. Obama leads Republican candidates Paul, 47 percent to 45 percent and Bachmann, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Among independents Romney and Paul lead Obama by 3 percent and Perry leads Obama by 2 percent. Obama beats Bachmann by 6 percent among independents. The Gallup Poll was conducted on Aug. 16 and 17 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent. For the American people, jobs and the economy are the leading issues of the 2012 presidential election.

[Raymond Thomas Pronk is host of the Pronk Pops Show on KDUX web radio from 3-5 p.m. Wednesday and author of the companion www.pronkpops.wordpress.com blog with links to online videos and articles and past radio show podcasts and downloads—Give It A Listen!]

Background Articles and Videos

Gallup poll: GOP contenders neck-and-neck with Obama

Republicans line up behind candidates to a greater extent than Dems behind president

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

“…The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 19% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-five percent (45%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -26 (see trends).

This is the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama. The previous low was -24 reached yesterday and also in September 2010. Additionally, the level of Strong Approval matches the lowest yet recorded. By way of comparison, President Bush had ratings near the end of his second term in the minus 30s. …”

“…The president and the maverick are running almost dead even in a hypothetical 2012 election matchup.Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul earns 38% of the vote to President Obama’s 39% in the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters. Fourteen percent (14%) like some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Just a month ago, Obama posted a 41% to 37% lead over Paul, who ran second to Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann in the recent high-profile Ames Straw Poll in Iowa.

Paul, whose long run afoul of the GOP establishment with his libertarian policy prescriptions, picks up 61% of the Republican vote, while 78% of Democrats fall in behind the president. Voters not affiliated with either of the major political parties prefer the longtime congressman by 10 points – 43% to 33%. …”

“… A generic Republican candidate now holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, August 21. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 48% of the vote, while the president picks up support from 43%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. ,,,”