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Dota2 The International 9 - Hero Proposition Bets

Adam Boothe

Monday, August 12, 2019 4:05 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 12, 2019 4:05 PM UTC

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Last week we took a general glance at the tournament, this week we get down to the nitty gritty!

<p>Every year we hear analysts discuss how The International has its own meta. This certainly has to do with the 'TI patch' released annually before the event, but also adjustments made as the tournament shifts from the groups to playoffs and teams need to counter what is happening. TI being a 10-day tournament allows for this evolution. The TI Compendium picks, which are now offered as props at most books, are far from straightforward business. An understanding of the recent patch, foresight to see how it fits together, and a bit of good fortune on which teams progress furthest are needed to hit these with any regularity. In this sense you might compare it to golf outrights;</p><p>That said, we commonly see the most-picked heroes being 3/4 or 4/5 positions with excellent initiation and/or team-fight ability. The hero always needs to have utility in more than a single role, so keep that in mind. It never comes from the strongest pool of cores or supports, as those get banned too frequently to be worth consideration. With 115 heroes in Dota2, there are approximately 5-10 that deserve serious consideration for the most/least-picked markets. At the last two Internationals the most-picked hero in the group stage was also most-picked in playoffs. The most banned heros over the last two TI's have been Night Stalker and Nyx Assassin [TI7] and Io and Enchantress [TI8].</p><p>When we talk about adjustments being made between group stage and playoffs Nyx went from an 79% win rate, in 39 matches, to 16%, in 6. Last year a similar result occurred with Enchantress; group stage she was 66% over 21 matches, to 38% through 13. What can we read from these numbers? When the hero was let through in playoffs it was more frequently with a plan in mind to counter said hero. Similarly, the most picked in heros in the past two years, Venge and Earthshaker, enjoyed an improvement in their win rate from group stage to playoffs.</p><p>One thing to read from this is teams, or individuals, that were more willing to pick and execute these heroes better than other teams and players won matches more consistently. This is something to keep in mind when live betting as we move into the playoffs.</p><p>Let us begin with the most/least picked markets.</p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=162&amp;a=ec641d03-1e6d-4096-9f5f-d2a6939022d0&amp;f=3" target="_blank"><img alt src="https://cmscdn.staticcache.org/assets/image/0005/1349915/Biggest-Ever-Bet-Boost-1280x480-English-UK.jpg" style="width:100%" /></a></p><div><h2> </h2><h2>Most Banned Hero</h2><p>Looking over the markets a lot of them have to do with the picks/bans we saw at Summit10. I recommend anyone looking to bet hero props, to at the very least browse the data from that lan. That said, there are some very obvious problems with using Summit statistics; small sample size, motivation level, 7.22f came after it. Yes, the changes were not hugely game-breaking however, in a butterfly-effect manner, a minor change to a few heroes can cause them to be more or less chosen resulting in other heroes becoming more or less chosen. A ripple effect that impacts the entire meta. Additionally if you go back through the data from the last summer tournament before TI there is hardly a correlation between what we see at the two tournaments.</p><p><u>Spirit Breaker</u></p><ul> <li>currently the outright favourite to be most banned at 3.75. SB received a massive set of buffs in 7.22 back in May. However in three successive patches the hero has been nerfed including 7.22f</li> <li>while Spirit Breaker could still potentially be a good meta-hero for TI, it doesn't come close to representing the VPB [value per broken-ness]. It's win rate and pick rate have steadily declined since June</li></ul><p><br /><u>Enigma</u></p><ul> <li>a key hero in Dota history and TI, Enigma always has the potential to flip an entire game on its head and change the fortunes with one key black hole. It is a versatile and good team-fight hero</li> <li>it too has been nerfed successively in 7.22. I imagine Enigma being up there around the 5-10 most banned heros, but not most.</li></ul><p><br /><u>Chen</u></p><ul> <li>this is a lot of the analysts' prediction for most banned hero. Chen's ability for global heal on creeps and teammates allows teams a strong capability for early game pressure and objectives</li> <li>I do believe he will be among the top five most-banned heroes at this tournament. He is my first selection @ 4.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a>]</li></ul><p><br /><u>Omniknight</u></p><ul> <li>I REALLY like the strength of this hero for the past couple months. Omni is a capable team-fighter, can both tank and heal. His abilities haven't received a nerf beyond longer cooldowns in the early to mid game. I don't think he is broken per se but his VPB is one of the highest on display</li> <li>Omni is my second play on this market @ 6.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=bf7f64f4-cd67-4904-9b00-6ded1d41fd18&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Bookmaker!">Bet365</a>], will depend on how significant his recent nerfs really end up mattering</li></ul><p><br /><u>IO</u></p><ul> <li>7.22 saw the Wisp returned to Captains mode [meaning it could be used in professional play] with it's rework after 7.21. It was further re-balanced in 7.22c and has subsequently been 'nerfed' twice since. I say nerfed because one of the changes was finally removing the Aghanim scepter bonus whereby at Level 15, if Io had agh's it could treat it as though the hero it was tethered to had agh's also. With some heros this was an incredible talent to have. The other change to Io in 7.22d was to reduce the impact providing heal in the early game.</li> <li>I do think these nerf's will play a factor in Io's frequency, however it is still an excellent support hero for many combinations. Additionally many of the analysts still think it is worth consideration for this market. My VPB rating is off the charts with this one Io @ 67.0 [<a href="https://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=150&amp;a=3e56a0bf-7bdf-4fe1-b9a6-d22c7cc3dd2c&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Join Betway Today!">Betway</a>]. Limits are extremely low on this one, justifiably, as any dream of this hitting is but a 'wisp'...ahem</li></ul><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The International 2019 Two-Time Hopefuls. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/TI9?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#TI9&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/T1LKDU06QB\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/T1LKDU06QB&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Wykrhm Reddy (@wykrhm) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/wykrhm/status/1160410981828161537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;11 de agosto de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2>Most Picked Hero</h2><p>Another very tough market. There can be cases made for any number of heroes. While we have seen some very popular cores getting through time and time recently, namely Sven and Ember, their recent nerfs and TI's disposition to find a 4 position most commonly picked lead me away from those off the bat. If you are interested in a core two you may want to look at are Jug and Slark. We also know Liquid has had some very clear success with Windranger.</p><p><br /><strong>My three picks on this market:</strong></p><ul> <li>Rubick @ 13.00</li> <li>Doom @ 251.00</li> <li>Shadow Shaman @ 301.00</li></ul><p><br />All three have been prevalent in various iterations of 7.22 and none have received constant nerfs. So see if you can get a $5 down on a few books on some of those longshots. In terms of picking a favorite, Grimstroke makes a lot of sense though has been victim to significant changes recently. I still think he'll be up there in most picked. Two potential outsiders can also be Sand King which covers many great fighting abilities, and a TI classic, Earthshaker. I honestly might just put down $50 on 15 different longshot heroes and see what happens!</p><p> </p><h2>Head-to-Head [Picks + Bans]</h2><ul> <li>Omniknight (ml) v Centaur Warrunner @ 1.68</li> <li>Dark Willow (ml) v Slark @ 1.98</li> <li>Ember Spirit (ml) v Grimstroke @ 1.75</li> <li>Kunkka (ml) v Broodmother @ 1.60</li> <li>Chen (ml) v Enigma @ 2.13</li> <li>Oracle (ml) v Lina @ 1.92</li> <li>Troll Warlord (ml) v Lone Druid @ 1.67</li> <li>Batrider (ml) v Death Prophet @ 1.79</li> <li>Bane (ml) v Legion Commander @ 1.61</li> <li>Dark Seer (ml) v Magnus @ 2.05</li> <li>Doom (ml) v Gyrocopter @ 1.75</li> <li>Necrophos (ml) v Huskar @ 1.68</li> <li>Dragonknight (ml) v Phantom Lancer @ 1.53</li> <li>Spectre (ml) v Slardar @ 1.68</li> <li>Drow Ranger (ml) v Luna @ 2.02</li></ul><p><br />All of the above are found at <a href="http://a.oddsmarket.com/record/v?c=155&amp;a=6a145d2b-505f-491b-a70e-2f5f31742828&amp;f=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="A+ Rated Bookmaker!">Pinnacle</a>, but there are so many more to choose from. I thought I would have the time and space to add some further props I am on regarding players, game duration and hero most/least markets but, to prevent this from becoming an essay, best to stop here. I have looked in great deal at approximately two dozen different heroes for each market so if there's another one you would like to discuss, or see if I am on it, hit me anytime over the next 72 hrs [@lockeqwerty]. Now if you're doing Compendium picks in the game, as opposed to with the books, you obviously only get one choice. I just want to say.....GOOD LUCK!</p></div>