"It's unlikely that they'll give him a visa. If they were going to, they would have done so already. I think they're going to hold on so there's little time for people to get nasty against the government. It's sad."

Pretoria has refused to say if it will allow or block the Dalai Lama after causing an outcry when it barred his entry two years ago over fears of angering China who is the country's biggest national trade partner.

"We're still hoping against hope that he'll be here," Tutu told the newspaper.

"He draws so many people and, I can tell you, I'm not jealous," he then quipped with his trademark sense of humour and laugh.

After campaigning against apartheid's white minority leaders, Tutu is seen as the country's moral compass and has remained a frequent critic of the government even after the fall of apartheid rule.

"I am not their blue-eyed boy," he said when asked if he could use his influence to try and win authorities around.

Events to mark his birthday start on Thursday with the launch of a new biography, followed by a public church service the next day. The Dalai Lama lecture had been due to wrap up events.

Human Rights Watch urged South Africa to grant the visa, saying that its reluctance seemed to be based on nothing other than fear of upsetting China.

"For the government to block a leader who supported South Africa's struggles is not only to deny its own history, but it raises questions about whether the government looks to Pretoria, or to Beijing, for some of its domestic policy decisions," said Daniel Bekele, HRW Africa director.

"There are few better ways to honor Archbishop Tutu, and that for which he and South Africa stand, than by acting on principle rather than perceived political expediency," said Bekele.

The government has said that all the visa procedures had not been met, with all documents only submitted on September 20, which the offices of Tutu and the Dalai Lama have denied and slammed the state's response as "profoundly disrespectful."

China refused to recognise criticism of its policies in Tibet, said HRW.

"There is a long and documented history of alleged human rights abuses suffered by Tibetans living under Chinese rule, which remain unaddressed," it said.