Friday, May 30, 2014

4.0 Wild Card

Does ANYONE know the format of the 4.0 playoffs? I tried to search the HTA website, but that always seems like a fruitless endeavor for me. Early in the year, someone told me that there would be two wild card teams, based on percentage (of lines won? of games won?).

Anyway, one of the more interesting results from last night was the Unicorns 3-2 win over a bad Sugar Creek team. One of the Unicorn lines lost was due to retirement. With the Hurricanes' 5-0 win over Chancellor's last night, the Unicorns are most likely competing for a Wild Card spot, and still have a tough match with Chancellor's on the schedule.

148 comments:

- 8 teams in the playoffs, divided into two round-robin flights of 4 teams each- the 8 teams will be the 5 flight winners, plus 3 wild cards- the 3 wild card teams will be the second-place teams who have the highest percentage of lines won

I'm a Hurricane homer (and also a pessimist) but I don't think any of the 4.0, 4.5 or 5.0 versions of the Hurricanes have much of a chance to make a big impact at Sectionals this year even if they do get there.

Even if Houston and Dallas are a notch below their usual standards, that's still a notch or two above most other places. There are a couple of dark horses in 4.0 this year however. Corpus Christi has two unbeatable singles lines, at least in Corpus. One is a current super champ, who has turned in virtually identical scores every match. San Antonio (Blossom) was a semifinalist last year, and picked up a couple of ringers from the Laredo tankers last year, and fired their captain. Both of these teams, as well as the best from Dallas and Houston should be in the mix.

I'm sticking with my Austin pick in 4.0. Fort Worth 4.5 league is interesting. Two really good teams ended in a virtual tie. They each have 25 players on their roster. I have no idea what the playoff format is in Fort Worth.

Just looked at the 40s rosters and teams. I'm not 40 so not sure why I care but it appears the season starts Monday and almost no teams have a full roster. From. My 40 year old friends, are they putting the season off or something? Some teams have zero players on their roster.

Hurricanes have 8. Aces & Spinners of LLTC have ZERO players while Ace & Spinners of a Sugar Creek have a big roster... Hmmm, I wonder if the HTA realizes they screwed that one up pretty bad? I can't believe the HTA can really be this stupid. Every time I think they have reached the bottom, they prove me wrong.

I'm not sure if the timing of the Leagues works that well. I don't think they should run concurrently with Men's League (and Mixed). It's a lot to ask of family men to give up 2 or 3 nights a week for League play.

Has anyone from the HTA came up with an explanation how the flights were made? It is ridiculous. Do they think they will somehow make it to a nationals? Or are they happy with a chance at a wildcard to sectionals?

Hey, how good are self-rates Paul Kasal and Ignacio Sturla for Westside? Kasal's junior record doesn't look that impressive and he hasn't played any heavyweights yet. Sturla looks to be from Argentina...I'm guessing he's a clay court type?

Who are these guys? I looked them up and their record sucks and they are on a suck team, in last place. I see that Ronnie played dubs with Rochelle. Have you seen this guy play? Ugly tennis. I don't think anyone could have won with Rochelle. Neither of them should be playing 4.5. How did this happen? Lets move on and talk playoffs.

Not so sure. Westside kept it close and has an easy one left. I think it's individual lines not team matches that count so the wild card is:Lakeside 27-8Unicorns 29-11Westside 32-13Chancellors 31-14Cobra Kai 24-16HRC 29-16Pin Oak 28-17

If you assume remaining matches have the same results as the original matchups, then the standings are:Lakeside 32-8Westside 37-13Unicorns 35-15Chancellors 34-16HRC 33-17Pin Oak 32-18Cobra Kai 27-23

I think chancellors is screwed no matter how you slice it. Unicorns still have a small chance with only 11 losses. But they'll need to sweep sienna this time (possible) and win 4-1 vs Chancellors (tough).

Next tie breaker is maybe games. Last time out westside lost only 8 games total for all 5 lines vs their final opponent. I don't think Unicorns will win that tie breaker.

Another factor could be westside has 1 win by default (5/15) and 1 win by dq (4/24). Do these count?

If not then with only 2 Unicorn losses they would be ahead of westside at 37-13 vs 35-13.

From what I have calculated, only the 2nd wild card is up for grabs between Westside Warriros and Unicorns. I don't think Chancellors has much of a shot of making the 2nd wild card.

I have Warriors at 32-13 (71.11%), and they will probably win 5-0 for 74% or 4-1 for 72% in tonight's match.

Unicorns and Chancellors I have at 34-11 (75.56%) and 31-14 (68.89%) respectively. If Unicorns win 3-2, they are at 74% which ties if Warriors go 5-0. If Unicorns win 4-1 or better, I don't see any way Warriors can catch up. That said, I think this match will be extremely close and it will fall 3-2 to one team most likely.

hurricanes and unicorns got out of there division. The rest of the houston area will get the hammer. Write these two teams a check to sectionals. If they can beat chancellors 5-0 and 4-1 respectively. no other team has a chance.

2) Unicorns - Put Mohan back in singles and I think you take sectionals this year. With him in doubles it's a coin flip.

3) Thors - This is my sleeper pick, watch out unicorns - this team isn't as bad as it looks. As a team the average here is pretty poor. But it looks to me like a team where the lower end players are pretty bad and the quality of their best players is actually pretty good. Cathcart/Moon/Peterich/Kelvin/Steinfeld all make for competitive matches. Cathcart may be the #1 doubles player in the playoffs. If Freddy's boys have a good day and Unicorns don't bring it then it could happen.

4) Copperfield - Seems to have one good singles player - John Flores. He's good enough to be competitive with most of Hurricane/Unicorn singles guys, but not sure he'd be favored. I don't see their S2 being competitive at all. Their top doubles isn't too spectacular either, but they are able to put out 3 lines at roughly the same level. I think this gets close 3-2 wins vs most opponents, but they probably lose about 4-1 or 5-0 vs unicorns or hurricanes.

5) Good Guys - Your team's not bad. But it's the same as last year and that didn't work. Maybe they were missing some guys for playoffs last year that hurt their chances. Should be a good match with copperfield, I see that one going either way. X factor here has to be the sandwich blaster, but I think he gave up on making the ATP tour and instead started focusing on his Rapping career so his form is probably poor. But the blaster brings the emotional leadership the team needs - solid for line 3 dubs.

6) Lakeside - Looks pretty similar to the old lineup they've proven for several season now won't make it out of city playoffs. Not a bad team, just not great. No answer to good singles and doubles isn't strong enough at top lines but deep.

7) Ace N Spinners - Pretty nice record. Scrappy team, with not so traditional style. Dangerous match up for lakeside for sure, but not so much for the top teams.

8) Cinco Ranch - Come back next year when you have some singles players. Seem to fall apart around line 3 doubles as well.

9) JCC - Good news, you won a lot of matches 3-2 in regular play. Bad news, playoffs is full of better players and none of the matches are indoors. Probably get a line here or there, but nothing to worry about.

10) Westside - Well, you made the playoffs! But you got a bitch of a draw. Team isn't horrendous, but not competitive in their flight.

11) Pin Oak - You made it to the city playoffs! Bye now.

12) Cobra Kai - I thought pin oak was the worst until I saw your team.

1. Hurricanes - At the start of the season I thought it was finally time to pass the city champion onto the GGs, but I think late season recruiting for the Canes got them over the hump. GGs didn't add anyone and Cane's picked up a few all-stars. I think with a lineup like this, Canes split singles 1-1 with GGs and take 2 of 3 in doubles:S1 - WatersS2 - MilojicaD1 - Tam/VoglD2 - Baer/MorrisD3 - Mertz/Foster

2. Good-er Guys - They won their division handily, and are the team to beat in their half of the playoffs but they have some problems. For starters, they don't have a very large lineup. If anyone's out of town they start running into problems pretty quick. Marnitz + Brice/Hirvela makes for 2 pretty scary lines - not unbeatable, but tough for other captains to go straight at them. After that I guess you put Shroff in singles and maybe Reneberg/Farmer + Rodriguez/Cabato in doubles? They need players to step up and strong captaining that gets them favorable match-ups. Should be a couple of tight ones with both Canes and Titans, I'd love to watch Waters v Marnitz and Brice/Hirvela v Tam/Vogl. I think singles parity is large enough that they don't have a lot to worry about vs Hulks or Yellow Balls.

3. Titans - One of the keys to success here is getting Ford good match-ups. He got killed by Marnitz and Waters in the last few outings, but has torn through a lot of other very tough competition. Day/Burmann is formidable, as is Marco/Wedderburn. Nguyen is tough and versatile. I still like the GG/Cane all-stars over the Titan all-stars. Titans are strong enough to take both their division and the city championships, but like the GGs will need strong outings and good match-ups. Seems like they are about 1 singles player away from winning it all.

4. Westside - Questions in singles. Not sure how strong Sturla is or if the self rate will hold if he is really good. Maybe something like Sturla & Kasal in singles with Dasprez/Schoeman, Western/Oliva, and Hale/Jordan in doubles? Mixing in Western/Schoeman in singles. Dangerous, but not favored.

5. Yellow Balls - I guess Tuan is playing singles now? Sounds...well unsustainable. This team has found a way to win a lot of 3-2 matches in close tie-breaker situations. I don't see them pushing it that far vs the top teams though. I think they put out their best lineup (something like the deucebags lineup + work Hedge in there) vs GGs but lose because of lack of talent 4-1 or 5-0. After that I think everyone gets playing time and they end up less competitive and probably lose all their matches. If they played the Hulks first, I think it's a match they'd win. Good season and something to build on.

6. Hulks - They brought out their best lineup vs GGs 2x and lost 5-0 both times. I see both the Titans and GGs matches going that way again. Close one vs YBs but 3rd in the division isn't close enough for Freddy to 'expand' the competitors to allow they to move on. Freddy's getting there in 4.0, but still a ways off talent-wise for a competitive 4.5 team.

7. Deucebags - a 4-4 team made the playoffs? What's next, we're the NBA and a team with a losing record gets in? Cane's beat them 5-0 first time out, but there was a lot of close matches. I liken them to the Hawks, might make it interesting but not interesting enough to get the job done. Will give westside trouble.

8. Gypsies - Good news, you were in a weak division and made the playoffs. More good news, one time you kept it close with Westside and only lost 3-2! But bad news - that was because one of their lines didn't show up and 3 of 4 lines were slaughters. Since the other teams will almost certainly field 5 lines every time in the playoffs that's going to make it tough to get to the level of 'close losses'. Even though your matches will likely be short, remember to lock your cars your Williamsburg moxy doesn't carry much weight in the ghettos around LLTC.

Excellent previews of both 4.0 and 4.5. If you'd like to do this professionally, email me at houstonleaguetennis@gmail.com. You will receive the same salary that I do and I will promise anonymity if you so desire.