Blue collar voters in driving seat

Behind the battle about the car industry is a political battle for the blue-collar vote.

These voters were firmly on side with Labor after the Howard government’s Work Choices and the ACTU’s 2007 election campaign ads. Now the opposition has targeted this group as part of a campaign to show that the minority government dependent on the Greens has lost touch with ordinary workers.

Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott
has made a habit of shooting the breeze with blue-collar workers at factories and car workshops as he spruiks his message that the carbon price is bad for manufacturing and Labor does not care.

With policies such as the opposition’s cut last year to assistance for the car industry, Prime Minister
Julia Gillard
has returned fire. She spent much of last year telling voters Abbott would slash support for vehicle manufacturing.

She referred to the opposition’s proposal again yesterday as she made it clear she sees keeping the car industry as pivotal to maintaining a strong manufacturing sector.

Like Manufacturing Minister
Kim Carr
, Gillard argued the car industry has a central role within the manufacturing sector by boosting supply chains and supporting a wide range of high-value industries and jobs.

But last year Labor delivered mixed messages to the car industry, leaving it open to attacks from the opposition that its policies lacked consistency and were not aimed at supporting a sustainable industry.

Labor wound up Carr’s beloved green car innovation fund to pay for Queensland flood relief and scrapped the promised clean-car rebate “cash for clunkers" scheme. Treasury had always been opposed to the schemes.

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Later in the year, after pressure from manufacturers and unions fearing job cuts as the sector came under pressure from the appreciating domestic currency, Gillard held a jobs summit and industry assistance appeared to be back in vogue.

Still, Treasurer
Wayne Swan
and Finance Minister
Penny Wong
have made it clear that bringing the budget to surplus in 2012-13 is a top priority.

For this reason, Carr could be expected to be nervous that any deal to offer more assistance to the car industry this time may eventually face cuts in future in a repeat of his experience last year.

He has authority to negotiate with the car makers about assistance to keep them producing vehicles in Australia on a co-investment basis but cabinet has to approve the deal.

With Labor’s primary vote still languishing – the most recent Nielsen poll had it at 29 per cent compared with 49 per cent for the Coalition – it is likely that the minister will be supported in his efforts to keep Holden making cars in Australia.

Governments, including that of John Howard, always seem to baulk at the threat of losing hundreds of thousands of car industry jobs. And Gillard wouldn’t want to lose more blue collar votes to the Coalition.