Yes, if other top skaters make mistakes

Yes, if she improves in this area (specify)

If Yuna is there, then I don't think Ashley has a chance of winning. But if not, then she has a decent chance of winning. I'm just worried that she'll mess up the SP, as usual.

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Yuna couldn't beat a 3-3 and 3flip less Miki Ando at 2011 Worlds, and Miki made a mistake in her FS too, landed only 5 clean triples. And Yuna did not bomb there either, just made a few errors. I don't think Yuna is as invincible as you think. Not after all this time off...

Yu Na was at about 55% of her potential at the 2011 Worlds, and still very nearly won, granted a really weak Worlds but still. The Yu Na from Vancouver probably wins the 2011 Worlds by about 40 points, and the field hasnt improved that much (if any) since then, so she obviously needs to be nowhere near her Vancouver level. At even 80% of her potential she is virtually unbeatable amongst the current field, maybe less depending how the Russian babies develop, Asada comes back, and Wagner keeps developing.

Yuna couldn't beat a 3-3 and 3flip less Miki Ando at 2011 Worlds, and Miki made a mistake in her FS too, landed only 5 clean triples. And Yuna did not bomb there either, just made a few errors. I don't think Yuna is as invincible as you think. Not after all this time off...

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That's just because Ando gets ridiculously high PCS. Ashely doesn't get that kind of PCS yet. I think Yuna could make quite a few mistakes and still beat Ashley.

That's just because Ando gets ridiculously high PCS. Ashely doesn't get that kind of PCS yet. I think Yuna could make quite a few mistakes and still beat Ashley.

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Historically Ando didn't get such high PCS though, it was only once she built up her reputation through being consistent, winning a lot of medals, and attempting ambitious content that her PCS got so high, and then once that happened, she lightened up her content but was still consistent and the high PCS stayed which is why she was able to win Worlds (and pretty much everything else that season) in 2011. Miki is for sure a talented jumper but beyond that her skating was never super special IMO, but she did everything else well enough (strong SS, decent speed, could tick off the positions to get level 4s on her spins, pull off level 3 footwork convincingly), was attractive physically, and had her age work toward the advantage of creating a "sophisticated lady" image on the ice rather than some teenybopper, so if Ashley can perform consistently in competitions and go for ambitious content this season, her results and thus PCS will likely rise, and that means in the Olympic season, as long as she can stay consistent, she might not even need really ambitious content to win a medal at the Olympics and/or Worlds. She too is a strong jumper and does everything else sufficiently, 3-3s are definitely possible for her, her body may be muscular but is considered appealing in skating, facially she's beautiful, and she does appear sophisticated with her new programs, especially compared to all the Russian teens on the scene. Basically Ashley needs to prove she's not a head case this season and I think as long as she does that she should be good to make Worlds and, if she can keep it up through next season, the Olympics in 2014, and depending on how consistent/good she skates, medaling in either venue is a definite possibility.

I think it would be a huge mistake to equate the 2011 Worlds with what would be required of a skater to win at the 2013 Worlds and 2014 Olympics. The young Russian jumping beans are age eligible now, Kim is coming back and hopefully more motivated than she was in 2011 where has since admited she didnt even really want to be there, and Asada seems to be returning to form finally.

Historically Ando didn't get such high PCS though, it was only once she built up her reputation through being consistent, winning a lot of medals, and attempting ambitious content that her PCS got so high, and then once that happened, she lightened up her content but was still consistent and the high PCS stayed which is why she was able to win Worlds (and pretty much everything else that season) in 2011. Miki is for sure a talented jumper but beyond that her skating was never super special IMO, but she did everything else well enough (strong SS, decent speed, could tick off the positions to get level 4s on her spins, pull off level 3 footwork convincingly), was attractive physically, and had her age work toward the advantage of creating a "sophisticated lady" image on the ice rather than some teenybopper, so if Ashley can perform consistently in competitions and go for ambitious content this season, her results and thus PCS will likely rise, and that means in the Olympic season, as long as she can stay consistent, she might not even need really ambitious content to win a medal at the Olympics and/or Worlds. She too is a strong jumper and does everything else sufficiently, 3-3s are definitely possible for her, her body may be muscular but is considered appealing in skating, facially she's beautiful, and she does appear sophisticated with her new programs, especially compared to all the Russian teens on the scene. Basically Ashley needs to prove she's not a head case this season and I think as long as she does that she should be good to make Worlds and, if she can keep it up through next season, the Olympics in 2014, and depending on how consistent/good she skates, medaling in either venue is a definite possibility.

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^ THIS. This is what I meant last season when I said that if a US lady was pacing to get on the team for Sochi (and even be a medals contender), they needed to step up their game last season so that the international panel could give some credence to a US skater.

I love her confidence and attack! The costume color looks better on her in the video than in the still pics I first saw. Excellent showing for Ashley in her first outing of the season. Hope she builds and builds.

I love her confidence and attack! The costume color looks better on her in the video than in the still pics I first saw. Excellent showing for Ashley in her first outing of the season. Hope she builds and builds.

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And that's the kind of music that suits her well. I like this program !
Her attack on the jumps is better at the end of the program. Her 3Flip is weird, lol.

Yes, clean helps, but this is great for start of season for Ashley. Just a slight miscue on 3flip, but fully rotated. I don't check protocols so I don't know all the details of her scoring and generally I don't care so much re judges' opinions. Re PCS, judges hold that down or raise it up truthfully based on things other than skaters' actual performances, IMHO.

She was happy with the marks, in first place among ladies.

ETA:

In GSD Ashley blog thread, there is a link (doesn't seem to work) re a new article by Sarah Brannen posted on the Boston2014 website.

I would describe Ashley at the JO this year as having taken it to the next level. Her program is well constructed, she seems very fit, and her jump technique seems better in the air and during the landings (ie not falling).

I think she'll win if other frontrunners such as Mao, Akiko, and Carolina make mistakes, but she needs them to make mistakes because her PCs are often a bit lower IIRC (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong!).

Sure she can, if the frontrunners make costly mistakes (pops, falls). But she will need to skate strongly throughout the season to 'deserve' high PCS at Worlds, and will need a clean and consistent 3/3.

Assuming a 3/3 is necessary to win (and I don't know if it will be) Ashley doesn't actually need a consistent 3/3, she would just need to land one (or 2) at Worlds. Skaters do sometimes have the skate of a lifetime at the most opportune moment. Jeff Buttle had that kind of freeskate at Worlds in 2008, Sarah Hughes in SLC, even Takahashi and Tran at Worlds last year. Clearly, consistency is preferred; but it isn't a requirement.

Assuming a 3/3 is necessary to win (and I don't know if it will be) Ashley doesn't actually need a consistent 3/3, she would just need to land one (or 2) at Worlds. Skaters do sometimes have the skate of a lifetime at the most opportune moment. Jeff Buttle had that kind of freeskate at Worlds in 2008, Sarah Hughes in SLC, even Takahashi and Tran at Worlds last year. Clearly, consistency is preferred; but it isn't a requirement.

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She will need it in both the short and long. (her 2axel3toe isn't any more consistent either - I say drop the axeltoe, just work on the fliptoe for both the short and long so she doesn't need to train 2 tricks)

Sure she can, if the frontrunners make costly mistakes (pops, falls). But she will need to skate strongly throughout the season to 'deserve' high PCS at Worlds, and will need a clean and consistent 3/3.

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I am wondering how Yu na's return would affect Ashley (and the rest of the skaters). Yu na may be rusty but she has good jump technique and she is the best natural artist. I don't see Ashley beating her. She can beat any of the other skaters if she skates clean, and others make mistakes.

She could easily do it. But not if others skaters skate clean. Ladies such as Suzuki, Kostner, yuna, elizaveta could all beat her but they have to skate clean. Ashley has consistency on her side while others don't. But if the others pull of 2 clean programs I think they could even push her off the podium

She could easily do it. But not if others skaters skate clean. Ladies such as Suzuki, Kostner, yuna, elizaveta could all beat her but they have to skate clean. Ashley has consistency on her side while others don't. But if the others pull of 2 clean programs I think they could even push her off the podium

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Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!

I'd say she has some chance to win, but so do many other ladies. Ashley could win, but so could any of Adelina, Akiko, Kaetlyn, Carolina, Alena etc. The door is that wide open. Ashley has shown herself to be remarkably consistent and prepared this season, so that works in her favor, and she should garner some higher PCS this season as a 'proven skater'. The flutz and lack of a consistent 3-3 work against her.

Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!

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Ashley skates very aggressively and continues to impress me with her continued improvement in both jumps and spins. Also, she is less 'wind-up toy' and offering more passion in her performances which is great for PCS.

So, I do think a clean Ashley could beat some of the premiere skaters w/ her current jump content, such as Asada, Suzuki, Leonova, Tuktamysheva and perhaps Sotnikova. Tuk and Sotnikova are hard to read right now as they are still growing and quite new to Senior ladies. I will also say that Asada looks good thus far, but Ashley still beat her when Asada had a home-court advantage

But in order to compete and beat Kim and Kostner, she will undoubtedly have to step it up even more by perhaps adding a 3-3 in the SP and somehow maximizing even more elements in the LP. I really don't know where Kim is competitively, though. If she is rusty from all the time off, then Ashley probably could catch her, too. If she is ready, then Ashley should be ranked behind her

Personally I think a clean Ashley this year could easily beat even a clean Suzuki or Elizaveta, and possibly a clean Kostner if she is still doing the same jump content. Meanwhile Yu Na would not have to skate clean to beat a clean Ashley, she could afford atleast several mistakes and still do. It is kind of funny how you say it, all those skaters needing to skate totally clean to beat Ashley but certain to do so if they do, as if they are all equal. I hope you dont think the scoring potential of Suzuki is the same as Yu Na Kim for instance, LOL!

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Oh of course I don't think it is the same scoring potential. Yuna can make mistakes and still beat her yes. Obviously Ashley's technical is slightly higher over suzuki and kostner. But I believe if they skated clean, the higher components of Suzuki and kostner would push them to beat Wagner

Oh of course I don't think it is the same scoring potential. Yuna can make mistakes and still beat her yes. Obviously Ashley's technical is slightly higher over suzuki and kostner. But I believe if they skated clean, the higher components of Suzuki and kostner would push them to beat Wagner

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I dont agree at all regarding Suzuki. She just skated a clean long at Skate Canada and had the exact same PCS (basically) as Osmond, a juniorish skater who fell and stumbled. Wagner with increased support from the USFSA and momentum will probably start getting higher PCS than Suzuki who will quickly become an afterthought of the Japanese Skating federation if Asada skates at all well (or Ando comes back at some point).

Kostner is alot tougher call. My personal opinion is I dont think will get away with her current jump content any longer. With all the youngsters coming up doing harder jumps, especialy the Russians 3/3s (granted I know Wagner doesnt have a solid 3/3 but still tries more jumps than Kostner) the judges will be much more harsh on her if she doesnt atleast add the triple lutz back I believe.

I dont agree at all regarding Suzuki. She just skated a clean long at Skate Canada and had the exact same PCS (basically) as Osmond, a juniorish skater who fell and stumbled. Wagner with increased support from the USFSA and momentum will probably start getting higher PCS than Suzuki who will quickly become an afterthought of the Japanese Skating federation if Asada skates at all well (or Ando comes back at some point).

Kostner is alot tougher call. My personal opinion is I dont think will get away with her current jump content any longer. With all the youngsters coming up doing harder jumps, especialy the Russians 3/3s (granted I know Wagner doesnt have a solid 3/3 but still tries more jumps than Kostner) the judges will be much more harsh on her if she doesnt atleast add the triple lutz back I believe.

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You are wrong. Yes Ashley was good at Skate America but her components were inflated because the comp is in America, the same happened last year with Alissa receiving huge components over kostner.

Osmond also got inflated components at skate Canada. Akiko Suzuki did not skate clean at skate Canada, she firstly had to pull up from 5th in the short which would have effected her components for long. She did a single loop in free and all her other jumps were not at her usual standard. I believe that if Suzuki and Wagner were to both have perfect short and long programs, that Suzuki would win because of her superior skating skills and other components.

It is the same with Kostner, if she were to skate 2 clean programs ( even without a lutz) she would beat Wagner because of positive GOE and superior components.

Suzuki has never gotten huge component scores to begin with and I think she suffers a little bit from 3rd skater syndrome, despite placing better than Mao and Kanako in recent events. Mao has her history, Olympic silver, and being recognized as Yuna's main challenger in her prime going for her, as well as sometimes the 3a, and Kanako is young and has done well for herself in seniors overall despite recently having issues with URs. Akiko on the other hand is 28, and while she's done very well recently, I think the Japanese Fed and maybe the judges are a little hesitant to invest in her too heavily and dish out huge component scores just because they sense she won't be around for much longer. This is disregarding Miki, who was arguably the top Japanese lady before she took last season off and is just another person to add to the mix and diminish Akiko's strengths as a skater. Also, Akiko is prone to making mistakes in the SP and always having a few miscues in the FS such as popping a jump or two, and I think this hurts her scores. You never really expect her to go completely clean, and usually she doesn't, so her strong but not huge scores make sense. If she were to skate totally clean she might score quite a bit higher, I think.

Ashley OTOH is the top US lady at the moment and has been consistently rotating all her jumps in the FS for a while now, which has helped build up her PCS. Unlike Akiko you don't assume she will pop a jump or two in her FS and when she goes out and lands all her jumps and skates with attack, its pretty impressive, even if she isn't going for a 3-3 or 2a-3t just because a clean skate leaves a strong impact on the judges and audience. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Ashley beat Akiko at Worlds honestly, because Ashley has beaten Mao a couple times now, and it hasn't been the situation where Mao has bombed. The judges would likely place Mao ahead of Akiko with comparable skates too, Mao just sometimes comes undone in the FS and gives up too many points in tech that it would be wrong to place her ahead of Akiko with just a couple errors. But the fact that Mao skated well at 4CC and Japan Open and Ashley beat her most times makes me think Ashley can beat Akiko, because I think internationally and in Japan, Mao is still considered to be above Akiko, she just has to skate well to confirm it.

You are wrong. Yes Ashley was good at Skate America but her components were inflated because the comp is in America, the same happened last year with Alissa receiving huge components over kostner.

Osmond also got inflated components at skate Canada. Akiko Suzuki did not skate clean at skate Canada, she firstly had to pull up from 5th in the short which would have effected her components for long. She did a single loop in free and all her other jumps were not at her usual standard. I believe that if Suzuki and Wagner were to both have perfect short and long programs, that Suzuki would win because of her superior skating skills and other components.

It is the same with Kostner, if she were to skate 2 clean programs ( even without a lutz) she would beat Wagner because of positive GOE and superior components.

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LOL we will see later in the year who is wrong but I confidently predict a clean Wagner will never lose again to Suzuki, regardless how Suzuki skates (if she makes mistakes she might lose again to Suzuki). Suzki's career has already peaked with her World bronze last year.

All you point out is that Wagner and Osmond are backed by strong federations while Suzuki really is not, since even after last year she isnt the Japanese fed. favorite and never will be.

LOL we will see later in the year who is wrong but I confidently predict a clean Wagner will never lose again to Suzuki, regardless how Suzuki skates (if she makes mistakes she might lose again to Suzuki). Suzki's career has already peaked with her World bronze last year.

All you point out is that Wagner and Osmond are backed by strong federations while Suzuki really is not, since even after last year she isnt the Japanese fed. favorite and never will be.

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Wagner and Osmond are backed by their federations because all the other US and Canadian Ladies suck. Suzuki isn't backed as strongly because they have so many other string skaters.

For sure at the way things are going that Ashley will beat Suzuki at worlds, but only because Suzuki probably won't put togetHer 2 clean programs where as Ashley probably will.