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FOR COMMENT/EDIT - ECUADOR - Police protest craziness

Released on 2013-02-13 00:00 GMT

Email-ID

1797753

Date

2010-09-30 18:31:25

From

reva.bhalla@stratfor.com

To

analysts@stratfor.com

List-Name

analysts@stratfor.com

Reggie, Paulo - pls fill in details of names, etc. to this assap

Members of Ecuador=92s National Police are waging a large-scale protest=20=
=20
against Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa=92s spending cuts that were=20=
=20
passed in the legislative assembly Sept. 29 and would eliminate police=20=
=20
benefits.

In the capital city of Quito, police have reportedly taken over a=20=20
runway at the international airport while a bridge and the Maldonado=20=20
and Pusuqui avenues have been blocked by the protestors. There are=20=20
also unconfirmed reports that 150 members of Ecuador=92s Air Force have=20=
=20
reportedly shut down the airport and suspended all flights. Earlier,=20=20
police were blockading the legislative assembly. Protests have spread=20=20
to the cities of Cuenca, Carchi, Tunguharua, Manabai and Guyaquil.

Correa has appealed for calm and is reportedly negotiating with some=20=20
of the protesting police units in trying to contain the situation.=20=20
Though the president has struggled in asserting his clout over the=20=20
country=92s security apparatus, these latest police protests thus far do=20=
=20
not demonstrate the capability to overthrow the government.

In the most critical indicator that the president will be able to=20=20
maintain control of the situation, the heads of the armed forces are=20=20
now publicly declaring their support for the president. Correa's=20=20
popularity is currently hovering around 50 percent and is currently=20=20
working to reassert his authority over the legislative assembly, which=20=
=20
remains in political gridlock. The president recently revealed that he=20=
=20
was considering dissolving the national assembly and ruling by decree=20=20
until elections can be scheduled. The prospect of Correa dissolving=20=20
the legislature for an indefinite period of time would be of deep=20=20
concern for his opposition, who could be using these police protests=20=20
in attempt to weaken the president=92s grip. Indeed, many of the press=20=
=20
reports coming out of Quito appear to be exaggerated in describing the=20=
=20
military=92s =96 as opposed to the police =96 involvement in the protests.

An important figure to watch is former Ecuadorian President and=20=20
military official Lucio Gutierrez, who Correa claimed in Jan. 2008 was=20=
=20
sending e-mails to the Ecuadorian armed forces encouraging them to=20=20
destabilize Correa's governemnt. Lucio is believed to have maintained=20=20
influence in the army and played a role in implement the 2002 coup=20=20
against President Jamil Mahuad.

Though Correa still appears to be in control and the chiefs of the=20=20
armed forces are expressing their support for the president, the=20=20
situation remains shaky. Meanwhile, crime is likely to escalate the=20=20
longer these police protests persist and security forces remain=20=20
distracted. Already, two banks have been reportedly been targeted by=20=20
thieves in Manabi.=