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Which countries are doing the most to stop dangerous global warming?

In November, nearly 200 countries meet in Paris for UN talks to agree a new climate deal. Find out below how their pledges – known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs in UN jargon – compare in our in-depth analysis of 14 key countries and blocs .

European Union

A far-reaching pledge – but is it credible?

The most ambitious commitment from the industrialised world. The EU bloc’s pledge, if recreated across the world, would give us a decent chance of staving off the worst of climate change.

The European Union’s promised emissions cut will almost certainly be the most far-reaching climate offer on the table in Paris. If it is fully achieved, with no loopholes or carbon accounting tricks, the EU can say that it is walking a path that offers a greater than 50% chance of limiting global warming to the “safe” threshold of 2C.

Japan

Nuclear woes contribute to underwhelming plan

Japan’s climate ambition was swept away by the tsunami that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Its contribution lays the ground for the expansion of Japan’s coal sector – kryptonite for climate action.
Despite being the host of the UN summit that led to the Kyoto protocol on climate change in 1997, Japanese negotiators will arrive in Paris in November with an underwhelming plan of action for greenhouse gas reductions.

Just as US president Barack Obama issued a call to arms to save the climate “while we still can,” Japan announced modest carbon emission reductions that drew criticism from environment campaigners and earned it Fossil of the Day award from the Climate Action Network.

Russia

Political and business climate make cuts unlikely

Rather than curtailing industrial emissions, Russia will use it’s vast forests to soak up carbon emissions. A strategy deemed unfair by others doing more with less.

In a country famed for icy temperatures, the concept of global warming is often greeted with jovial chuckling. While many in the Russian political elite understand the seriousness of the problem, the current economic downturn, and conventional short-term economic thinking, means the political will to prioritise reducing emissions is absent.

Russia’s greenhouse gas emissions did not grow in 2014, as the country entered economic downturn, due to western sanctions and the falling price of oil. In recent years, greenhouse emissions have risen, but at a much slower rate than economic growth, mainly because the economy has been restructured from heavy industry and manufacturing towards resource extraction and services, since president Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000.

United States

Bold moves but not enough progress

Observers view the pivotal US climate pledge as a decent start. But to do its fair share, the second-largest carbon polluter needs to delve deeper after its 2025 target year.

Observers view the pivotal US climate pledge as a decent start. But to do its fair share, the second-largest carbon polluter needs to delve deeper after its 2025 target year.

Canada

Compromised by weak target and dirty tar sands

Vast reserves of tar sands oil in Alberta have meant Canada has maintained a hard line throughout the climate negotiations.

Canada put forward one of the weakest climate targets of any major industrialised economy, which experts said was a direct result of the Stephen Harper government’s promotion of the highly polluting tar sands industry.

The Canadian government proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Australia

Domestic policies leave little chance of meeting target

Once a constructive player, Australia has become something of a climate pariah. Its latest pledge was deemed “feeble”. But with a new, moderate prime minister, which Australia will turn up in Paris?

Australia’s emissions reduction target for 2030 is lower than some comparable developed countries, but the greatest scrutiny now is whether the new prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, can improve policies widely regarded as inadequate to achieve it.

Before he was ousted in a leadership coup in September, the former prime minister Tony Abbott announced Australia would reduce emissions by between 26% and 28% of 2005 levels by 2030. Turnbull has since backed the pledge.

Brazil

Bridging the gap between rich and poor nations

An emerging giant of the global economy, Brazil’s pledge is notable for giving absolute emissions reduction targets (rare among developing countries) but falls short on renewables and cuts to deforestation in the Amazon.

Brazil’s promise to reduce total emissions by 2025 is a bold political move that should allow the country once again to play a leading role in climate negotiations.

As the first major developing nation to pledge an absolute reductions target (rather than relative to GDP), Brazil will be in a strong position to bridge the gap between rich and poor nations at the Paris talks in December.

China

World’s largest emitter steps up its game

Turning around the runaway coal train in China is a mammoth task. Given this, premier Xi Jinping’s pledge to stop emissions growth before 2030 is seen as a vital, impressive step for the future of the planet.

China is the world’s largest carbon emitter due to its voracious appetite for coal to fuel its massive economy. For this reason, much attention is on China ahead of the UN climate change negotiations in Paris and its post-2020 climate action commitment was eagerly awaited.

China has changed its approach to cutting carbon emissions since the disastrous Copenhagen negotiations in 2009 when it was blamed for blocking an agreement. The government is now taking the need to cut emissions seriously and this is reflected in its submission to the United Nations. As part of its pledge to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2020, China has said it will cut its CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% from 2005 levels by 2030.

India

Environment comes second to economic growth

With 300 million people living without electricity and vast resources of coal, India’s development poses a moral question. But the Modi government’s pledge to go big on renewable energy has encouraged environmentalists.

India was a day late in its submission of its climate change plan to the UN, and was the last of 140 countries to do so.

The delay was partly deliberate. The government of Narendra Modi waited until the anniversary of the birth of the Mahatma Gandhi , the revered independence leader and campaigner for a low-tech local model of economic development based on village communities, to give their announcement added resonance.

Indonesia

Lacks clarity and fails to address deforestation

It is difficult to judge precisely due to uncertainty over its pollution data, but Indonesia’s pledge indicates it could hold emissions at current levels.

Indonesia’s pledge to cuts its carbon emissions by 29% by 2030 compared to current projections has been criticised for failing to adequately address large-scale forest and peatland loss, which account for the majority of its emissions.

Campaigners said the final submission to the UN is full of “empty words” that are too “vague” on deforestation.

Ethiopia

Holding emissions as economy doubles

Ethiopians live amongst the least carbon intensive lives of any nationality. For that to remain true as they bring their population out of poverty, they will be asking the rich world to spend big on climate finance.

Ethiopia was until recently a byword for African famine, drought and absolute poverty. But the climatically vulnerable country where 10 million people rely on food aid and which is responsible for just 0.3% of global carbon emissions will go to the Paris climate talks as a leader of other developing countries, planning to hold its emissions and to double the size of its economy by 2030.

Officials in the ministry of the environment in Addis Ababa say they have no option but to act on climate change. “Ethiopia did not cause [it]. But we are confronted by the threat that it poses. It has the potential to destabilise us and other countries in the Horn of Africa, bring more fierce competition for water and other resources,” says a government spokesman.

Mexico

Solid pledge could be undermined by lack of political will

Mexico has put forward an ambitious programme that aims to peak emissions by 2025. But questions remain over the implementation of the measures by a system engorged with corruption and petroleum.

Mexico received international praise for being the first major developing country to submit its pledge to the UN on curbing greenhouse gas emissions ahead of the Paris summit.

Mexico promised to start reducing emissions from 2026, with an unconditional pledge that by 2030 they would be 22% lower than business-as-usual projections. With conditions, the government said the reductions could be 40%.

Morocco

Solar and land use plans set standard for poorer nations

After Paris, the climate negotiation circus will move to Casablanca and the host nation has already begun to shape its diplomatic credentials.

Morocco will host next year’s UN climate summit and is becoming an Arab leader at the Paris talks in December. Earlier this year the north African country, which is 95% dependent on Middle East oil and gas for its energy, committed to spending $10bn (£6.5bn) of its own money to make a 13% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

But it also pledged to cut emissions a further 19% if $35bn of additional money can be generated from UN climate funds, the private sector and other countries.