Could the Premier League lose UCL place?

The Premier League is guaranteed to keep four Champions League places for 2017-18, but their status will be under threat from Serie A from the start of next season.

At one stage it looked like a bad 2015-16 for English clubs, coupled with another good campaign for Italian teams, was going to see the allocation of places change this season.

But despite enjoying a strong group stage it all went wrong for Italian clubs in the knockout rounds, so much so that not one of their teams made the quarterfinal stage — the first time this has happened since 2000-01.

However, Italy will gain 3.893 points on England and Germany at the start of 2016-17 (results from 2011-12 will no longer count for the five-year calculation) so it could be all change at the end of next season.

At present the Premier League will have a small lead over Serie A at the start of next season, so every point Liverpool and Manchester City can pick up in the remainder of the season could prove crucial in the long term.

Three leagues get four Champions League berths, and La Liga is way out in front and in no danger of losing a place.

As of April 6, the points scored in 2015-16 are:

Germany – 15.714England – 12.875
————————–Italy – 11.500

Which leaves the total points standings as:

Germany – 79.463England – 74.909
————————–Italy – 70.439

Points table at the start of 2016-17 as it stands:

Germany – 64.213England – 59.659
————————–Italy – 59.082

Teams left in Europe to score points this season:

Germany – 3England – 2Italy – 0

Teams score two points for a win, and that is divided by the total number of teams a league has in European competition. This means each win (in the Champions League or the Europa League) is worth:

There is also a much, much closer battle on to keep three Champions League places between France, Portugal and Russia. This will not change this season as Russia has now had all five of its teams eliminated and is third of these nations, but Russia will gain points on both rivals at the start of next season with Portugal in the most danger.

And with Portugal still with two teams (Benfica and Braga) and France with Paris Saint-Germain, it could be very close at the start of 2016-17.