Kevin Pelton of 82games.com and Supersonics.com composed one of the better analytical pieces this season back in December - a breakdown of a pissing war between Mark Cuban and Kenny & Charles over Dallas' strategy in defending Phoenix's pick and roll.

Read Pelton's piece, but in short the flap went something like this: Dallas defeated Phoenix in the season opener 111-108 but despite the Mavs' victory, Kenny & Charles disemboweled their defense of Phoenix's patented S/R. In particular, they shook their heads at Dallas' choosing to switch on the S/R, and Barkley pretty much made a wholesale condemnation of the switch as a defensive strategy. Mark Cuban, who has guys documenting every set, got pissed off because - as Pelton's data bear out - there's no empirical evidence suggesting that the switch is a less effective strategy than running under the screen, or hedging, etc. The war of words degenerates, blah, blah, blah.

Pelton pored over the data of a game between Phoenix and Detroit about ten days later and determined that Cuban's beef had merit - the switch is no less an effective defense of Phoenix's S/R than any other method.

The obvious relevance of Pelton's piece today is that, somewhere in a Phoenix hotel suite, Mike Dunleavy is weighing his defensive options. What's interesting is that, over the past 36 hours, I've both read and heard criticism of the Lakers suggesting that they would've been better served by having Smush [if that is your real name] run under the screen - which he did in three instances, each time resulting in a long-range Nash miss -- more frequently.

I'm not convinced this 0-3 on the Under is anything more than an aberration (besides, let me ask you - if the Clips are leading by one and PHX is coming down with :15 seconds remaining and Livingston runs under a Nash screen with :07, would you not put a bounty on Dunleavy's head?)

Here's why I think the Clippers are well-suited to defend the Phoenix high screen and roll with a switch, particularly with Livingston on the floor:

Like Detroit, our bigs are quick and mobile and our backcourt defenders are big and long. By switching Livingston or Ross...or even Mobley onto Diaw or Thomas, the Clippers don't kill themselves, and can certainly buy themselves the second or two they need for a proper baseline rotation - provided they execute.

What concerns me is Kaman's being drawn out to the top of the circle on the Nash-Diaw drag that worked so effectively on the Lakers. I'd like to think that Kaman is more capable than Kwame, but the Clippers will need to have a set rotation prepared for this, because this S/R is proving to be PHX's bread-and-butter. Because when Diaw comes up top, this is going to leave Brand alone in the right corner on Marion - where the Matrix sets up on this play. Mobley or Maggette will be guarding Bell or James in the left corner. PHX's other body is usually set up on the wing.

If Brand comes over for help, then someone - either our wing defender (Livingston/Cassell) or the other corner guy - has a split-second decision to put a body on Marion...or they could collapse on Diaw - though, as you saw with the Lakers, he gets to the basket far too quickly for most frontcourt defenders to have adequate time to help.

The difference between defending Phoenix well and laying out the red carpet for them is a matter of a nanosecond.

A quick baseline rotation and Boris Diaw's attempted layup says hello to Elton Brand's palm. A clumsy switch by Chris Kaman and Nash is in the paint for an uncontested 12-footer - abusing Kaman the way he did Kwame off the switch. Good anticipation by Shaun Livingston on repeated possessions and the Clips can effectively cut off one wing of the Phoenix offense. Poor rotation on the perimeter and James Jones and Raja Bell can set up a couple of chaise lounges in the corners and go to work - maybe they'll hit...and maybe they won't.

Game One is always exciting, particularly when, like the Clippers, you're the vagrant at the postseason cocktail party. But what makes Clipperblog so giddy about this game - especially having watched virtually every minute of the LAL/PHX series - is that Clipperblog is dying to see how the Clips choose to defend Phoenix. It's how we felt before the season premiere of The Sopranos.

Posted Wednesday, October 29 at 3:20PM

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Talk about an understatement! While I’m nowhere near the hoops analyst as team clipperblog, here’s what I think…

Why not fake the help on the Nash drive and then, jump out into the passing lane for that baseline pass into the corners? Cause we’ve all seen the results of the pass. Right or “leff-handed” (a-la-Tmac-adidas commercial) BAM… a-la-choose your PHX guard. The one “good” thing about Nash’s game is that he likes to jump and pass (see: poor fundamentals), he’s just good at waiting long enough for the defender to commit. Make Nash commit first. By then, he’s in the air with no where to go.

We all know he’s going to kick it out to the 3-point line, if you can’t help on the drive, stay home on your man.

And yes, all 6-7 of Livingston defending a S/R with 6-6 Q Ross has got to better than ANYONE the Lakers had with Smush, whether switching, running under, or hedging.

On the other end, we’ve got to pound the ball.
The first 10 possessions:

Odds – Post up Brand
Evens – Post up Kaman

Possession 11: 3-ball by Sam PUJIT, CatM0, V-Rad, Corey

Repeat, repeat, repeat, granted you have to take into account Sam’s PUJIT, and Corey’s strong drive to the basket.

Intangible: Perhaps Singleton should get some extra minutes to fly in for those boards? Lots of jumpers from Phoenix could mean lots of rebound ops for Singelton.

without speed and anticipation, it's virtually impossible -- because PHX spaces the floor so well. It's not just a matter of getting from the right block to the left block...from the dining room to the living room. It's a commute.

I can't agree more with you on offense. The Clips won that Apr 5 game because Elton got 23 shots. No other Clipper got more than 11. Livingston had 13 assists.

This is Elton Brand's series.

End of story. There's no way Phoenix can defend any down screen, any side screen, any fluid two-man game between Livingston & Brand -- particularly if the Clips load up the weak side with Vlad and/or Corey up top and Kaman down low.

And, yeah, I think the Clips will play a matchup zone with Ross playing the ball. But you have to be careful because PHX exploits zones as well as anyone. They know where those soft spots are and, because they all can shoot, they can spread the perimeter...and if that happens what do you do with your low guys? Do you hold the zone and leave at least one guy wide open on the perimeter...or do you close?

I think you've got it. First, Nash will kill you if you go under the pick, he shot 42.7% this season from beyond the arc and it wasn't just those three in one game where he burned Smush when he went under, it was all series.

When you switch, Nash will pull back most of the time and survey the situation. Against the Lakers he got it to Diaw to expose Smush, but I think you're right that Livingston slows that plan some. So Nash will pull it back then try to take Kaman off the dribble. Well, not try, Kaman can't stop that. You have to be practiced in your rotations there because Nash will expose that mistake. And if it ends up Brand on th Matrix, well, just don't let him go baseline, he's much weaker the other way.

What bothers Nash most is length and athleticism. When the Lakers could get Odom on Nash in the switch, it didn't work for the Suns. I think Livingston is a big key, he will slow Nash.

And pound the ball inside on them all night. They can't stop you — they couldn't stop Kwame. Only Kwame can stop Kwame. (He usually does.)

I'm not sure Kaman will guard Diaw. If Tim Thomas is out there, AND the Clippers go man, start Kaman on "Clutch". Compared to the other Suns, TT's game is most simplified. Get the combo of Ross, Livingston, Mobley, Maggette, Radmanovich (pick 3) out there for the S/R. All pose difficulty in some way to the Suns' plan with length or sufficient speed. The trap is also always an option in Dunleavy's arsenal and we have seen brilliant rotations at times, there was one possession in the Spurs game where I actually jumped up and cheered for the perfect roation. If Kaman is involved in the S/R they should double the ball handler and let the quick guys try to rotate and make up the space. If EB is able to stay near the hoop at least maybe they force a jumper instead of a Nash layup once he torches Chris.

Pelton points out you have 4 options on the S/R. Switch, trap, hedge, or go under. I'm not sure who would have suggested that Parker should have gone under. Almost no one goes under the screen in the NBA, and certainly no one should against Nash. He will absolutely kill you if you go under it. Don't forget that going under the screen is not exactly automatic for keeping Nash out of the lane either. Nor can you trap him with consistent success; he's too good against the double team. Which leaves hedging and switching. Now my coach used to call the 'hedge' the 'help and recover', and that's significant, because it is the 'recover' that is crucial. The Clippers will try to hedge, but here's the thing... the Suns get into their sets so quickly and Nash is so good, they'll just keep setting the screen until they get what they want. And as Pelton points out, even if your 'plan' is to hedge, sometimes you have to switch if the primary defender gets hung up. So, you try to hedge, but you have to be ready to switch. The good news is that, other than Kaman, the matchups on the switches are not bad (Ross and Livingston can guard Diaw or Marion respectably, Brand and Radmanovich are long enough to bother Nash some if they can keep him in front of them.)

05/08/06 23:45:27

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