KEY STEPS

Compendium on methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate
change

PAGE2002 (Policy Analysis for the Greenhouse Effect)

Description

PAGE2002 is a spreadsheet probabilistic model written in Microsoft Office Excel with the
@RISK add-in. The model calculates regional and global impacts of climate change, and social costs
of different greenhouse gases. It also calculates the costs of abatement and adaptation. It is an
Integrated Assessment Model starting from emission projections, and carrying uncertainties
throughout the calculations.

Appropriate Use

The model is designed to explore the impacts and social costs under any user-specified emission
scenarios. It can be used to calculate optimal abatements.

Scope

The model is global in scope, with a user-defined focus region. It calculates to 2200 by default.

A single session with the model developer is all that is normally required.

Training Available

The model developer will offer advice and support under contract.

Computer Requirements

PC running Microsoft Office Excel and @RISK.

Documentation

PAGE2002 is described in detail in Hope C, 2006, “The marginal impact of CO2 from PAGE2002: An
integrated assessment model incorporating the IPCC's five reasons for concern”, Integrated
Assessment, 6, 1, 19-56.

Applications

Several analyses performed for the GB Office of Gas and Electricity Markets who paid for the
development of the model. PAGE2002 was the main model used for the impact calculations in the UK
Government’s Stern report.

Contacts for Framework, Documentation, Technical Assistance

Dr Chris Hope

Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.

Cost

The model is free to use, on the condition that any publications resulting from the use of the model
include Dr Chris Hope as an author.