I have a love-hate
relationship with
introspection. On
the one hand, I like the
idea of looking back at
the past events of the
year to evaluate where
we’ve been and how it
could affect our future;
on the other, I’m not a
fan of sentimentality and frankly, we can’t
afford to rest on our laurels anyways.

Nevertheless, it is the end of another
year and another opportunity to look
back. But this year I decided to mine the
archives of TV Technology over the past
half dozen years to see what predictions
and assessments were spot on and which
were simply off the mark.

“Indecency continues to be a vexing
issue for broadcasters as they attempt
to strike a balance between competing
against the permissiveness of paid content,
honoring their public obligations,
and dealing with opportunistic legislators.”
I wrote that at the end of 2007 and
while media watchdogs remain on alert
for the slightest infraction, in hindsight,
the issue seems a bit dated, especially in
light of ensuing court decisions that loosened
the FCC’s oversight.

At the end of 2009, I opined about the
pending Comcast-NBC deal: “There could
be enormous implications for how this
transaction could influence the future
of network-affiliate relations.” Barely two
years after the merger was finalized, the
jury is still out on how well the merger
has gone. NBC’s operating loss was up in
its latest quarter, but Comcast may be beginning
to see results in its investments.
The network saw record ratings for its
Olympics coverage, and actually made a
profit on the Games and is currently the
number one network in the coveted 18-
49 demographic.

Two years ago I was cautiously optimistic
about mobile DTV as I wrote that “all
eyes are on 2011 as the first real market
test of the format, where business and
deployment plans will be put to the test.”
Two years later, the industry is still looking
to gain a foothold with the format as
receivers slowly trickle onto the market
and it’s not a stretch to think that the rollout
will continue to be a slow one.

As you can tell by my past predictions,
I’m not much for going out on a ledge, but
if past history is any indication, I think I
can make several safe bets for 2013: 3DTV
will become even more irrelevant, few
broadcasters will accept the commission’s
invitation to auction their spectrum;
and analysts will continue to demonstrate
their cluelessness about our industry by
predicting an Apple HDTV.