Friday, 28 October 2016

The idea of a ‘progressive
alliance’ has raised its ugly head again recently, both during Plaid’s annual conference
and in relation to the pending by-election in Richmond Park. It’s an issue which I’ve discussed in the
past, because it raises a number of problems.
Glyn Morris referred to it yesterday
as well, pointing out that, to be meaningful, it needs to be about more than an
anti-Tory electoral alliance.

My first
problem is with the concept: I’m not sure what the word ‘progressive’
means. It’s a word often used by
politicians and parties who see themselves as the good guys and the ‘non-progressives’
as the bad guys, but that is, in essence, a definition which starts from a subjective viewpoint. Taking it
as its lowest common denominator in recent discussions, the desired outcome
would appear to be that Labour, the Lib Dems, Plaid, the SNP, and the Greens
agree amongst themselves that only one candidate should stand in any given
constituency, in order that the best-placed ‘progressive’ should be able to
defeat the baby-eaters. But what does
that mean in practice?

Let’s take the
issue of Trident, for a start. Labour
are in favour of renewing it, the Lib Dems want to replace it with an
alternative form of nuclear deterrent (they don’t seem entirely sure what, only
that it should be less accurate and less immediately available; a position the
logic of which escapes me). So, if
there were to be a ‘progressive’ alliance, would someone like me, who is utterly
opposed to the possession of nuclear weapons, be expected to vote for a Labour
pro-Trident candidate in order to defeat a Tory pro-Trident candidate? Why would anyone do that? It’s a point which highlights the dodgy
assumption being made by too many politicians that their electoral supporters
would vote for a different party if only their normal party told them to. It’s a position which owes more to abstract
mathematical analysis than to serious political thought.

Or take the question
of an ‘anti-austerity’ programme. Labour’s
pitch at the last general election may have been presented in that light, but
the actual policy put forward was more about a disagreement about the extent
and speed of austerity. The basic Tory
position was accepted; the difference was about the detail and timing. Again, why would any serious opponent of
austerity, who wants an alternative economic strategy, compromise and support
austerity-lite just because his or her usual party told them to?

This
article highlights some of the issues in arriving at a consensus platform,
as seen from a Labour viewpoint. Seen
from that perspective, one of the conditions would be that “... the nationalist parties would have to accept a federal or ‘devo-max’
model of governance in exchange for using power to pursue progressive politics
and give up hopes of independence.”
I think that neatly brings us to one of the key points: from a Labour
perspective, the whole concept is not about what such an alliance actually
achieves, it’s about getting Labour back into power and making other views subordinate to those of the big boys. Just think about the constituencies across
the UK, and which parties would be standing down for which other parties. In the vast majority of constituencies in
England (and in Wales), the simple reality is that such an alliance would mean
other parties standing down to give Labour a free run. It is, for Labour, a route back to two-party
politics, marginalising other views in the process.

I can think of
one, and only one, reason to back an alliance between disparate parties on a
once-off basis, and that is an agreement to change the electoral system to one
based on proportional representation.
(My own preference would be for STV, but there are other possible
alternatives.) Imagine electing a
government which had that as its one and only priority, and which agreed in
advance that it would resign and call new elections under the new system after
passing the legislation. I believe that
would do more for the advancement of whatever progressive politics actually is
than any political manoeuvring based solely on not being the Tories.

That’s
something that Plaid, the SNP, the Green Party, and the Lib Dems could probably
all agree on. There’s a problem with
Labour, though. That particular ‘progressive’
party is wedded to the current system, and seems unlikely to change as long as
they believe that they can win an outright majority under such a system. In that context, talk of other parties
standing down in favour of Labour hardly encourages them to shift their
position.

Oh, and there’s
another problem with PR as well. Labour
might not support it, but my understanding is that UKIP do. I know that ‘official’ wisdom is that they
eat even more babies than the Tories, but if we were serious about seeing a change
in the electoral system as the number one priority for building an alternative
approach to politics, one could make a good argument that, on a one-off basis,
a UKIP MP might be a better bet than a Labour one. That’s not a serious proposal, by the way;
but it highlights a problem with the logic of much of what is being proposed,
namely that the sort of alliance being proposed would not deliver real long
term political change, only a short term change of government.

None of the
above is intended to suggest that parties cannot or should not work together in
relation to specific policy issues where there is common ground, but an
electoral alliance which merely serves to reinforce Labour’s hegemony as the ‘main’
non-Tory party looks more like a regressive step to me than a progressive one. Too many people who should know better are confusing ends with means.

4 comments:

Spirit of BME
said...

Excellent post -you are to be congratulated as having observed the “happy-clappy progressives” in Plaid over the decades I am still at a loss to know what it means. One definition I have is that their answer to any economic /social problem is to throw money at it, without any comprehension of sound money or the wealth creating machinery of society. Or it`s a vague concept of all that is good and wholesome like American apple pie and those that do not like apple pie are the devil.The quote about the nationalist parties accepting “devo-max” hits the point, as this is exactly has happened in Plaid when decades ago the English class- war warriors entered the party. They are locked into the English system of government in Wales and work to improve it at all cost, as they believe that this can deliver all that the Welsh people crave.Difficult to develop this product when your articles of faith, namely the reason you were created and the Aims of the party stress that no outside government can serve a free people -hence the lack of focus, confusion and decay of the party over the years.

This idea of forming alliances in the manner suggested is something I intend to actively fight against at every opportunity I get. The notion goes against the reason pf Plaid's existence. It seems to be tempting to some whenever Plaid, or the Liberals for that matter, are in a position to shore up Labour. Then they can't resist the temptation to be a minister. But what about the constituencies at a local level. They have been working hard to make inroads onto local councils in the face of savage Labour opposition, only to be told they must stand down to give the Labour candidate a free run. The evidence of any minor party going into coalition or even agreement with a major party has meant a severe loss of support. I am convinced that Plaid should bite the bullet and firmly declare that Plaid is a nationalist party and all others are unionists. Enough of alliances, it's time to attack.

You are so nearly in focus....Deal aimed only at changes in the system... problem that the large party in question won't like it.....Let me sharpen the focus.A simple change to PR is all very well, but fiddling while the Brexit fire-storm burns. The single change we need is an Assembly Bill to provide for an elected Welsh Convention, through a written Constitution. That is what I call change - unites Wales and takes it forward on an agreed basis.That large party? Why must it be Labour? OK, we all like many of the old ideals of the Labour Party. You don't like Trident. I like mutual banks etc. But let's face it, Labour 2016 isn't like that. It is tired and dying, and blocking Wales by keeping the UK Social Union, not for the Welsh but to justify Labour's existence. Do the one-Bill deal with the Tories, its so simple!. They have the same notion that Wales is staggering having to carry the near-corpse of Welsh Labour. They want an economic uplift through constitutional change - read what they write! They want to clean the Augean stables. Many of them are fine with devolution so Wales CAN muster a pro-Wales majority without Labour.Would they agree, only on condition that its final, that Wales gets the rights of a US State or Catalunya? Wouldn't that be a quantum leap and wondrously better than what we have now? Take the deal.....As history shows (just think Hungary breaking from Austria in the 19th Century) Wales could come back for more and take the final leap to full independence if it wanted. Would this be such bad way forward, "progressive" in fact?

Doing a one-bill deal with the Tories sounds simple enough, but as far as I'm aware, they're even more opposed to proportional representation than Labour. That aside, I wouldn't - and never have - oppose agreements with the Conservative Party if they met the key condition of securing significant change. I'm not inclined to the romantic view of Labour as some sort of radical voice of working people - they long ago ceased being anything remotely resembling that.

THere's also a difference between an electoral deal and a post-election deal. One of the problems with electoral deals is that they tend to assume that the punters (i.e. the electorate) will neatly fall in line behind the deal so that the numbers come out as predicted. The evidence for that seems to be consipcuous by its absence.

However, in this case, I wasn't only considering the nationalist position; the post was about the much wider question of electoral deals. And it was also in response to suggestions of a UK-wide, rather than Wales-specific, alliance.