Friday, 29 April 2011

One of the things the Venezuelan government likes to boast the most is how child mortality has gone down since 1999. I am more than happy about that. Still, I wonder: was that not to be expected? I just took the official statistics from the government INE site (2010 is a forecast, I suppose) and plotted them here. In military green you see the Chávez period.

Below you see the reductation rate across the years. From red you se how fast child birth keeps going down.

EFE says Venezuela is one of the countries with the largest amount of Spanish citizens in the world: some 173456 registered Spaniards. According to the report in the American continent only Argentina has more Spaniards. I suspect the actual number is higher as many Spanish citizens don't bother to register. And I am sure the number was much much much higher a decade ago: since the Boliburguesía rules Venezuela, since the expropiations have skyrocketed and since the murder rate has more than tripled, Spanish citizens and their children have left Venezuela in droves. Many of my school friends whose parents fled from Franco Spain to Venezuela decided to migrate to their parents' homeland in the last few years. This is a tragedy as many of them contributed greatly to the development of Venezuela and many of them are highly skilled. When I mentioned this to some hard-core Chávez supporters they have just replied: "que se vayan, no los necesitamos" (may they go, we don't need them).

Chávez is obsessed with our native American and African roots...at least he pretends to be (never mind he hasn't granded them the land rights they want, among other things). He does not seem to recognise Venezuelans' background is as much Spanish as anything else.

I hope one day those Spanish Venezuelans who are in Spain will have reasons to go back.

One of the things that puzzles me is the way the Chávez regime can reinvent history. Basically, the vast majority of Chávez's honchos are either military coup mongers or former AD politicians who now wear red shirts and a group of extreme lefties who were supposed to be the foes of the military who are now in power. So now you have in power people like Rodriguez Chacín, one of Chávez's former ministers, who was killing people in the IV Republic in his special commando against the left winged guerrilla and you also have people like Soto, who was a guerrillero and is now president of the National Assembly.

He has been governor of Monagas since 2004. His brother, Pedro, has been mayor of the Cedeño Municipality since 2004.

Here you can read in Spanish a tacky article about how Pedro Briceño used some of the petrodollars to refurbish a school that badly needed it. He is described as a big patron:

"In the event...school director Alejandro Cabezas...thanked the local mayor for the work...specially for the water service, which was working only partially for over 30 years now...now, thanks to the mayor...Cabezas defended the Briceño administration..."

Now, let's see: 30 years ago was 1982. Cedeño's brother was the mayor of that region from 1993 to 99, he has been governor of the state for 8 years. Pedro has been mayor there for 10 years already.

Neurologists have found out how perception and feeling for different body areas are mapped in our brains. They came up with a funny humunculus that show how some parts take a bigger chunk of the brain's resources than what one would initially expect.

It would be interesting to do research on the Venezuelan average brain, even if figuratively speaking. How much attention do we pay to such things as planning or to beach?

It would also be interesting to know how our historical records are structured and how they differ to those of Mexicans, Chileans or Europeans. Of course: that is not possible.

History and historical manipulation have been used over and over again to direct and manipulate complete nations. That was the case in the Fertile Crescent. That was the case when the English Americans started to invade native American areas in they saw as their "Manifest Destiny". That was the case in Russia and Venezuela.

Humboldt wrote in the first half of the XIX century only two main events seemed to be part of the Venezuelan's historical memory: the Conquista and the Independence war. He also wrote Venezuelans did not feel a very strong link to the history of their ancestors from Europe or from the original America. I would add they did not feel much link to their African ancestors either.

And that is one of the reasons why the military caste in Venezuela, starting with Bolívar, and then our politicians, have managed to manipulate Venezuelans with particular success. They have transformed Bolívar and some "heroes" into some weird "Gods" and they have declared themselves the priests who do what the Gods wants.

If you ask 10 Venezuelans in what century - more or less - the Spaniards arrived to Venezuela, most of them would not know. If you ask them how their mother tongue, Spanish, came to be, from what language it derives, you will be surprised at the answers. If you ask them a little bit about what social systems native Americans had, you will often hear quite a lot of amazing myths. That is the reason why Chávez can say in an Aló Presidente that native Americans were socialist, did not have kings or slaves and were 2 meters tall. That the reason why a third of our 300+ municipalities are called after a military caudillo.

Every Venezuelan knows the date when Bolívar was born and the day he died. That's not so hard, anyway: those are holidays in Venezuela.

Most Venezuelan books about history suck. They suck big time. The pathos, the kitsch you find is incredible. The very few foreign books about Venezuelan history you will find are not very different, with some exceptions. The Bolívar cult is promoted, other aspects of Venezuela's development are completely forgotten or just glossed over in an incredible manner.

That is why I am trying to write a little bit more about Venezuelan history beyond myths in Wikipedia.

I wish Venezuelan historians - the real ones - would start to become more prominent. If they do, they will have two big enemies: the government and the military.

Journalist Setty sent me an interesting article (in English) published in Venezuela Analysis some time ago about the killings of Venezuelan rural activists and the lack of response from the government.

Venezuela Analysis is a site maintained by foreign lefties who are very much pro-Chávez. Lenin would have had a term for them. Now: in spite of the site being pro-Chávez, some of the people writing there are idealists. Even if they very often just churn out articles based on propaganda feeds from Chavismo, they also get useful information from low level groups - not from the powers that be -.

About 250 Venezuelan rural activists have been killed in the last few years and no one has payed for that. The article is about two of the last cases. Farmers link the security forces, the military, to the killers..."people from the IV Republic"...and the big landowners. This is year 12 of the so-called revolution. And which landowners are these? Are they all anti-Chávez or pro-Chávez or it's the same to them? I remember Chávez pal Rodríguez Chacín had a hacienda that is thousands of hectares big. Is he a landowner too? Is the owner of La Malagueña -whoever that is- a landowner? What is really happening with the land reform? How many farmers have their own land now and how are they using it?

In Monagas the governor, a former AD politician who is now, as many others, a PSUV-man, and his brother, who is a mayor of one of Cedeño municipality, have been repeatedly associated with big landowners who have been attacking farmers. The ones saying that are farmers and low-key political activists.

Land tenancy in Venezuela is still, after several "land reform processes" through the decades, in a feudal state. It is time for the alternative forces to develop solutions to this problem and approach the hundreds of thousands of people who for so long believed Chávez could deliver.

I wonder who is up to the job...bringing about justice and sustainable development in those regions won't be an easy task.

The Venezuelan ambassador in Belarus (in Belarussian here) condemned the terrorist attacks in Minsk on the 14.4.11. That's correct, who would not? Now: who did it?

Comrade Américo Díaz Núñez said the following: when I first went to Belarus...everybody told me I was going to the most peaceful and stable country in the world. It is obvious such action...are aimed at destabilizing the situation of the country".

Wao...that's how insightful a pro-Chávez mind can be. What else are terrorist acts aimed at? The question would be: who did it? Who benefits the most? I frankly don't know. Was it a group who is against Lukashenko? Or was it the Belorussian KGB or someone next to them? Let's see. Then came the pearl: Mr Díaz said "the West" is carrying out media terrorism by letting the news about the terrorist attack in Minsk be so short and disappear so soon.

I wonder: what is the Chávez military regime doing by supporting the Gaddafi regime until now and by completely silencing any information about the hundred of people murdered by the Syrian regime in the last weeks? If you speak Spanish, you can browse through the kind of news the Venezolana de Televisión has on Syria.

Detail on the side: a decent diplomat should know Belarus was indeed stable and relatively peaceful - the murder rate is higher than in Western Europe but it is definitely much much much lower than in Venezuela. He should not be told that. It seems he need people to tell him that when he was going there years earlier.

Second detail on the side: in this Spanish article you can read some rumblings from that ambassador about Colombia. The only thing I wanted to call your attention to is the last sentence:

"May Bolívar enlighten us to get out of this labyrinth created by the imperialist government of Mr Bush!"

The sentence is as kitsch as it can be. Caudillo Bolívar is definitely a God for these people and they will act as irrationaly as anyone who is into a cult, never mind what Bolívar would have said or not about it.

Venezuelans tend to be religious or, at least, superstitious. They do not usually go for religious extremism, but they are more religious than, say, the Belgians or the Argentines.

They don't like much the celibacy part of catholicism, so they used to import nuns from Colombia and priests from Spain. Now that last part is rather difficult as Spain is short of religious people, specially those who have to live in celibacy. Still: churches are still much more visited than anywhere in Western Europe.

Theoretically, all religious groups claim to be outside politics. Reality is a bit different.

In the last decades US American groups have penetrated a lot particularly in middle-class to low class areas. They have gone to the native American areas, specially with the New Tribes, until those New Tribes were expelled by Chávez a couple of years ago. All kind of churches have found their way in Venezuela. Most of those groups behave very independently. In general we can say: pentecostals and other groups that go very much into the emotional ("speaking in tongues", getting in trance, etc) tend to be pro-Chávez. Baptists tend to be anti-Chávez or at least rather critical of his government. This is, of course, a generalization. There are a myriad of churches and most depend on what their leaders say.

The Catholic church has been critical of Chávez. It has also played a big role in social programmes in Venezuela, so that Chávez sees it as some form of competition. Although I am not a Catholic myself, I have to own up the Catholic church in Venezuela has been more down to earth in Venezuela than in many places I have been to. They still have been very reticent about birth control, which is a real shame seeing how things are in Venezuela. They are usually conservative and yet they have been less conservative than in other places. And they have played a vital role in some of the few programmes for helping drug abusers, prostitutes and other groups.

I remember once as a student I was looking for a church in Caracas. I was just looking for any church, just to see. My take in religion is rather non-conservative. I grew up with books about evolution and discussions at the table about archaeology and religion, history and evolution of religious beliefs, the importance of analytical thinking and questioning everything.

I got into a church and it turned out to be a Pentecostal one. I sat and listened. Suddendly, the priest told people to pray for what they wanted most. They all started to pray loud, each one with his or her own message. And there was this girl next to me who started to thank God very loudly for bringing her someone like me. Suffice it to say I got up right away and vanished as soon as I could. These are the groups that are the closest to Chávez.

Anyway: Pentecostals tend to approach the poorest and the most superstitious, whereas the Baptists are more diverse. Professionals tend to go for Baptists or other groups or simply keep up with Catholicism. Baptists tend to be rather very pro-US, whatever it is.

It's amazing how superstition can play a role in politics. In my own family I had a couple of pro-Chavez aunts and cousins (there is still one). We had a very similar background. One of the few differences between them and the rest of us was - curiously- that those who would turn -at least for some years- into Chavistas also believed in the "mal de ojo", in the Evil Eye. The only one who was also pro-Chavez and did not believe in the Evil Eye was a formerly Marxist uncle who was a resolute atheist and was very adamant about rejecting anything to do with religion.

So it seems to me people going for the absolute extremes tend to have an issue.

Now let's go to what is happening now. Chávez is a very superstitious man and he also knows showing some form of religiosity pays. He has often said Jesus Christ was a socialist.

The Catholic bishop Urosa was pissed off with this and he said just a few days ago that Jesus was not a socialist. And of course, the national TV channel, which - unlike Globovisión- can be watched by 100% of Venezuelans- showed an evangelical priest saying Jesus was a socialist and a revolutionary. If you speak Spanish, just read what the pro-Chavez priest says.

We all know what -according to the Bible- Jesus said about "blessed the poor". Still, this whole discussion is not about religion at all. It is about Chávez and his regime: whether he and his boliburguesía are the representatives of the poor and of Venezuelans in general. Expect that pro-Chavez priest to get some more dosh for his social programmes. Expect the Catholic church to get less.

Ps. journalist Setty sends me a link from the official National Assembly site -mind: not the PSUV, but the theoretically pluralistic National Assembly site-. It is about how "the revolution resurrected on the third day...talking about the "revolution".

Monday, 18 April 2011

Here you have the abstention levels for the 2010 parliamentary elections in Venezuela per municipality. I based it on information here, which comes from the National Electoral Council and some other sources.

Most of the areas where more than half the population did not show up are very remote, like in the jungle in Guayana. Still, if you know a bit about Venezuela's geography, you will realise things are not that simple. Alto Orinoco is much more remote than Gran Sabana, for instance. And even if Guajira is remote, most of it is less remote than some areas of the Amazonas state where abstention was rather low but for Río Negro. Guajira is a place the alternative forces should mind a bit more: it is rather highly populated and yet it is very forgotten.

You can also see people in Sucre state are lazy bastards. And you can also see most people close to the Morrocoy National Park couldn't care to vote. Trujillo seems like a place on its own. Once I asked a Trujillo-born friend if he would consider Trujillo people a bit like hobbits. He said they are more like Orcs. Is it so? I don't know, but they definitely stand out in the Andean region.

Some of the municipalities with the highest participation levels are in Zulia, in Táchira and there is one special case in well-organised San Diego, in Carabobo.

And then there is Antonio Díaz, in Delta Amacuro. It's very hard to move around there and yet that is the municipality with the lowest abstention level in Venezuela.

Saturday, 16 April 2011

What you see in red are the Venezuelan municipalities with the largest amount of voters. They account for 30% of all voters. Those in red and pink account for 50%. Those in red, pink and yellow account for 60%. Those in red, pink, yellow and blue account for 70% in total.

If the democratic forces want to win in 2012, they need to act as a National Front and the top ten leaders - not just a candidate or a precandidate, but the leaders as a general team for each of the main parties- should start visiting absolutely all those municipios - at the very least - before the end of 2011.

Will they do that? If they don't, we will have a hard time. If they do, Hugo is going to go bananas.

The only politician from the opposition who has been going to those places in a very systematic way is Leopoldo López. The others haven't done that because they think they need to choose their candidate firstly. That is NOT the way to go.

"Public institutions meet to make justice to the victims of the IV Republic" (i.e. the democracy before military coupster Chávez got democratically elected)

"People from Miranda state protest (opposition) Capriles because of insecurity" (never mind the murder rate has more than tripled since the military coupster Chávez came to power

"72% of Venezuelans think the role of the right (i.e. those who are not part of the military regim) is bad or mediocre"

"Soto Rojas (president of National Assembly, ex guerilla): Venezuela is a completely democratic country" (what democratic country has its leaders repeating that ad nauseam?)

And now for those useful idiots who talk about the private TV channels's power: less than 30% of Venezuelans can watch TV that is critical of Chávez. Unfortunately, useful idiots from abroad never travel around Venezuela. They just watch reality from hotel rooms or Potemkin villages or Caracas.

This family are burrowing owls, a species that can be found in many American countries. The particular sub-species you see here is probably a Athene cunelaria brachyptera, found in Apure, in the Venezuelan Llanos.

Here we go again, trying to predict what's going to happen in Venezuela.
Let's look at what is happening:

The Indians had the Kshatriya or warrior caste. Venezuelans now have the Bolivarian military

1) the Venezuelan regime is increasingly making big efforts in making Venezuelans used to the idea that the military caste are a special class. The regime wants to make it clear they are a special profession, a group of people that needs more attention than mathematicians, biologists, street cleaners, nurses, chemists, teachers, construction workers or the rest. The new law for military training at school level is designed to prepare the new generation of those who will help keep up the military in power in the future. You already read about the new "military areas of development". Now you can read (in Spanish) about how the military in Carabobo are using most of their former ally, drug dealer Makled, to expand their already heavy presence in that region: you can see rising star general Alcalá kissing babies and talking about how the military are giving 2 hectares of the expropiated land for housing - that's 1.3% of the total - and some other for a school and mentions how they are taking at least 80 hectares -that is 53.3% of that land - to build new barracks for the military caste in Carabobo.

2) The Partido Comunista de Venezuela knows it doesn't have a chance without Chávez and his military, so it agrees with the militarization process and says the military training for children is good for "patriotism" (check out the article at one of the government's papers, paid with the State's money).

3) Nobody is saying anything about the horribly low standards of public primary and secondary school in Venezuela:

University students are too busy with defending university rights without looking at the broader picture - something they could do in Germany or Sweden but not in Venezuela today, in view of the social tensions, the government's propaganda machine and simple common sense- . Chavistas, on their side, believe they will solve the education problem and above all their lack of clout at university level by eliminating university autonomy and by sending more pro-Chavez people to universities even if those persons are virtually illiterate and should firstly get a real primary education.

Watch leader Diego Scharifker in this old video here (English). He has valid points, but he - like most Venezuelans - forget something very fundamental about the re-election possibility: in Europe there is only indefinite reelection in countries with parliamentarian as opposed to presidential system. This is a big difference and this is something I have never ever ever heard in Venezuela. Not even so-called political scientists from Europe (pro or against Chávez) seem to notice this huge difference, which should be the decisive point to oppose indefinite-reelection: we have a presidential system, stupid! It is not just about traditions or "cultures".

Watch Diego Scharifker here as well (Spanish) talking about the budget for universities. He has a right to talk about university budgets, but he simply has no chance as long as he does not address the fact that 1) hundreds of thousands of students get their entry because they are the children of university workers or teachers or because the students' councils have sold the entries to them (student councils legally get a certain amount of "entries" they can distribute)- this is like letting illiterate people get to university for political reasons-, 2) there is a huge amount of "workers" who don't work and are on the pay list of universities, 3) universities in Venezuela have a much higher proportion of the education budget than in any other Latin American country in a country where the education budget gets - in theory - a bigger chunk of the total budget than in many other countries.

As long as he does not address these issues, he and students in general who are not followers of Chávez will have a hard time in order to gain the hearts and souls of most Venezuelans (those who send children to public schools, etc).

Scharifker perhaps does not know public schools could be good. He probably has the experience of the US and Venezuelan models only, so he does not even consider this point. Or perhaps he thinks he should focus on universities as schools should be defended by other people. If he thinks so, he can wait until the end of times.

Chavistas are already spreading anti-Semite statements about Scharifker. Why? Simply because Scharifker's family is of Jewish background. One example: Kalim Delia, member of the new generation of pro-Chávez "scientists" at IVIC, Venezuela's main research institution. One

4) Oil prices are over 700% higher than when the military caudillo was first elected and most Venezuelans have no idea about what this has meant for Venezuela. In fact, even foreign historians and sociologists do not seem to fully grasp how empty and unstable any regime can be if it is based on this (if you read German, check Zeuske's interview here).

So: what's next?

As I said earlier, the Chávez Sturmtruppen will increase attacks on any leader of the opposition forces that dares to go to what most Venezuelans have wrongly labelled as "rural": cities outside the 3 main urban centres. Already the Henrique Capriles team was attacked by Chávez mobs in San Carlos. Expect much more of this in the months to come.

Even if Venezuela is getting petrodollars as never before, Chávez's mismanagement and widespread corruption are forcing the government to bet on Chinese financing. The Chinese, who pretend to be "non-interventionists" but who simply have more subtile methods than US Americans, will make sure they will see a return for their investment. They already provide the Venezuelan government with a lot of the technology it needs to spy on the emails and telephone conversations of the alternative forces. They will give enough goodies to the Venezuelan government to distribute before election time. As Venezuelans only think about the hic and nunc, they won't mind receiving refrigerators today even if that means their government will get less dollars for each barrel for the next 20 years and Venezuelans are less productive today than decades ago.

The alternative forces may waste a lot of time because the AD and COPEI and Proyecto Venezuela parties, but probably also UNT and PJ and all the rest, keep their party interests before return to democracy. Unity is seen at most as "getting before election time one candidate". Unity means more, even if parties have different ideologies (in reality Venezuelans are mostly discussing about caudillos, not about ideologies and much less about concrete plans for development). Expect endless discussions about when the primaries will take place. Expect also the Chávez groups infiltrating and voting to choose the best opposition candidate for Chávez.

Minister of "Justice" on socialism, his tie and his shoesHere an English article explaining the whole thing for those who do not speak Spanish. I wonder if Italian communist ministers also wear that kind of clothes.