Ladbrokes Late Mail: Geelong on the prowl in AFL, Perth destined for A-League Glory

Topics

Why Geelong is a good bet for the minor premiership and why Perth can add an A-League flag to its titles. Plus election, the Group 1 Goodwood and more in this week’s Ladbrokes Late Mail.

AFL

WHEN looking at the 2019 fixture in the pre-season, one team’s opening couple of months looked particularly brutal.

Geelong was to face a procession of powerhouse teams form the previous couple of seasons.

The reigning premier, the team they beat in the grand final, another preliminary finalist of last season plus two other top eight teams and another who’s contested a grand final a season earlier.

Getting out 4 and 4 would be good, 5 and 3 would be great but 7 and 1? That would be, and is, a spectacular result.

Camera IconGary Ablett (left) and Tom Stewart of the Cats celebrate their win after the Round 8 match between Geelong and North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium.Picture: AAP, AAP Image/Hamish Blair

So much so, that the Cats now have the easiest fixture for the remainder of the season and are now $1.50 to win the minor premiership.

It’s understandable given form and fixture but, if the 2019 season, has shown us anything it is that teams will drop games they really shouldn’t making that $1.50 a touch too short.

And, in terms of dropping games they shouldn’t, this Saturday is one which presents a danger game for Geelong.

The Western Bulldogs have the ability to beat any team and look the value of the round if you’re keen to take a flyer.

The other outsider who presents the best value is the Swans. Ordinary for much of the season, Sydney beat a good Bombers side last week and, if Lance Franklin returns after a few weeks on the sidelines, they are definitely worth a bet against North Melbourne.

A-LEAGUE

SYDNEY FC has been there and done it all before but surely the time is now for Perth to take the glory.

They were pushed by Adelaide last week and required a penalty shootout to make it through, but the big one is on their home pitch and, as we’ve become well aware of late, West Australian teams are a dominant force in our sporting codes.

The West Coast Eagles and Perth Wildcats hold their respective titles and the time is now for the Glory to join them.

Sydney smashed the Victory and that is not always a great lead in to a grand final. A team can have it too easy.

Both teams to score a goal looks a good bet given the form lines coming in while sticking with the home team is also a solid way to play.

The half time/full time double presents the value so if the biggest price (at the bigger risk) is what you are after, then Draw/Perth Glory is the way to go.

ELECTION

We know one Ladbrokes punter will be barracking for Labor after whacking $1 million on the ALP to win government.

When the Sydney punter made the best last Wednesday, the ALP was $1.23 to win. They were immediately wound in to $1.20 and now, some nine days later, they are $1.14.

It’s not as if this is a Winx scenario though. A race featuring the mighty mare is a horror show for bookmakers because all significant bets are on the her and none of her rivals.

In this case, punters are backing both major parties. There’s been more than a handful of reasonable size bets on the Coalition at a variety of prices north or $4 in the past six months.

Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah is the seat with the biggest hold heading into the election with the former Prime Minister heading in as the underdog.

One-time Olympian Zali Steggall, running as an independent, is the best backed candidate and a very narrow favourite in what looms as the seat to watch on Saturday night.

NRL

THE Eels were absolutely torched by the Storm in Magic Round but rather than a over-reaction like sacking a coach (that was never going to happen), Parramatta head honchos instead re-signed Brad Arthur.

A show of confidence in the coach and an act of stability from a club which is not entirely renowned for it, is enough to make me think a bounce back week is in order.

Sure, there are some issues with the skipper, but the Eels have shown enough this season for punters to know they are more than capable of travelling to North Queensland and taking down a Cowboys team which, while improving, is still a good way off the pace.

Changes have been made at Eels HQ and, as a reasonable outsider in the betting, look a good price for the upset.

The Raider and Rabbitohs is the game to split the punters this week. The Bunnies have been the most reliable betting play this season and were the best backed again last week when defeating North Queensland.

Canberra has also been a favourite of punters when playing at home this season and for that reason, we are seeing the best price about Souths for a few weeks.

The bookies believe they are the best team outside the Roosters and the results echo that. Coupled together, the lesson would be; take the nice odds while they are there.