Posted by Joshua on Friday, December 26th, 2014

Lots of things happened in 2014, but the single most important development was the rise of the Islamic State as an independentactor in Syria and as a global bogeyman, shifting the terms of Western and Arab Syria debate. The split between the Islamic State and the rest of the rebels in Syria has changed dynamics within the Syrian opposition and forced other rebels back into the Western/Gulfie fold. It’s also slowly but surely alienating Jabhat al-Nosra from the rebel mainstream. The end result is a somewhat clearer bloc formation but also an overall weakening of the anti-Assad side, particularly the non-jihadi rebels in the north.

Even more, the IS capture of Mosul in June, which threatened to bring down the Iraqi state–already rotting from the inside–has changed the international and regional dynamics. Now we have a US-led international military intervention in both countries, with mission creep in one or more directions being almost inevitable over time. And with all eyes on the Islamic State, Western media/political debate are increasingly beginning to describe the Syrian war as a counter-terrorism issue and have lost track of the fundamentals in a rather worrying way. This might seem like good news for Bashar, and it is – but so far not good enough to rehabilitate his regime politically or make it strong enough to claw back the parts of Syria that it lost. We’ll see how this develops. (The US is already flying air support for the Syrian Arab Army in Deir al-Zor, but it’s not something we’re supposed to talk about.)

In 2015, there are a few things to watch, including of course the Aleppo situation and the UN freeze, the international aerial campaign and whether it will burst the Islamic State bubble or not, the various international realignments, and the (lack of) efforts to contain Lebanon’s northeastern meltdown. But if I were to point to one single factor that gets nowhere near the attention it deserves and that could suddenly turn Syria upside down, it’s the regime’s fraying base: finances, infrastructure, and perhaps manpower.

The fuel crisis and other internal systemic failures are growing and may at some point become unmanageable. It’s winter now and that’s of course part of the reason, but it seems more profound than that. From the looks of it, Bashar has simply run out of money and the infrastructure has deteriorated too far over four years of war. In addition, the IS is currently hitting key energy nodes like the Shaer fields and the US bombings in the east are sapping overall fuel supply. Iranian and Russian supplies are what has kept the regime afloat so far, but now their own economies are under terrific strain, due to the plunging oil price and sanctions. International humanitarian aid is not keeping up with rising needs either, and donor fatigue is already a major problem – 2015 will undoubtedly be worse. So, will the pressure ease up or not? If not, how long can this go on without something breaking?

Related to this, there’s an increasing number of reports about the dire manpower situation on the regime side. There are reports of the SAA rounding up young men in regime territory, renewed enforcement of travel bans for military-age males, and rumors of a general mobilization that – even if false – reflect a genuine concern. Why is this becoming an issue now? One reason is probably that Assad has trouble paying his footsoldiers, or that Iran and others aren’t chipping in in the same way they used to. Another is that Iraqi Shia militias have drifted back across the border to fight the Islamic State in their homeland since June. Another is that Bashar will need more people than he currently has to sustain an increasingly ambitious military posture: he wants to secure gains in Damascus/Homs, hold the fort in Hama and Deraa and the northwest, and also tip the scales in Aleppo. More fundamentally, the militiafication of the regime seems to have advanced to a point where it’s having trouble shifting forces around according to military needs. Even if Assad has tens of thousands of available reserves on paper, many of them are now essentially village guards and sectarian/tribal militias that won’t go voluntarily to fight outside their home areas and that would in many cases be fairly useless if compelled to do so.

To be clear, the regime remains at an advantage in purely military terms and seems to be within reach of a breakthrough in Aleppo – that’s a potential game-changer. And Bashar continues to reap the benefits of fighting an opposition so venal and dysfunctional that no one wants to help it to power anymore – except maybe Erdogan. That remains his trump card. But if Bashar was betting that time is on his side, it’s really not and this must surely affect regime calculations, now that the UN freeze plan, the rise of the Islamic State, and other international dynamics are starting to offer new political horizons.

Comments (19)

“Even if Assad has tens of thousands of available reserves on paper, many of them are now essentially village guards and sectarian/tribal
militias that won’t go voluntarily to fight outside their home areas and
that would in many cases be fairly useless if compelled to do so.”

The shabiha militia formerly headed by the current “Minister of Tourism” Besher el Yazgi was disbanded by the regime when they refused to leave their area of Husn (near the Krak de Chevaliers) and go fight near Kassab.

The last year was marked by a number of important events in the Middle East and a number of other regions. Regime changes, armed conflicts, the rapid growth in the number of terrorist attacks — that is the outcome of the short-sighted policies employed by certain countries and Wahhabi states.

Many thanks for all efforts of the international community, both diplomatic and media ones, made in an attempt to reduce international tension, to minimize regional conflicts, especially the armed ones, to improve the political climate.

Paranoia is a sickness and many syrians became paranoics about Israel. If the identity of a national project is based on the destruction of another then once there is an identity crisis there is no foundations to resist the changes. This is Assad’s Syria, they based all their legitimacy rethorics on Israel Evil but never were able to build a nation for all syrians. Just the contrary Israel did.

I always critiziced colonialist policies but one must admit facts if do not want to be mentally ill. And this is the main fact: Assad, Gadafi and Saddam failed totally in their political fight due to corruption, clientelism and lack of historical vision and respect for their own arab populations.

“The war in Syria is hung up. No major moves by the government. The terrorists are repositioning for another massive campaign against Syria. Qalamoun, Hermon, Latakia, Hama, Homs and Damascus seems to be active fronts soon like Aleppo, idlib and darra.”

Assad will need to move to Dubai where he owns properties for the value of billions of dollars. But instead of selling all properties for “saving” the Syrian Nation he will remains in Dubai for the rest of his days enjoying the “savings” he did when he was the “democratically elected president of all syrians with no distiction of creed (LOL)”.

In my opinion pirates aides of Assad must hijack him and ask Dubai banks all the money he owns in UAE as a random.

Question: I’ve read elsewhere, that Israel is providing medical assistance to IS in Israel, perhaps even more? Also, if the U.S. is providing some air coverage to Assad, while the Israelis are bombing same near Damascus, seems like the right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing? As far as rot/corruption is concerned, that seems to be prevalent throughout the so-called civilized world today, which brings to mind: “people who live in glass houses, shouldn’t through rocks at others”.

Interesting, to say the least. I thought this was a past point, one that seemed to disappear years ago. I wonder, I think I’m a bit older than the speaker, though I agree with what he speaks, but don’t really know how this could come about. The idea has been marginalized and isn’t open too many, or at least that was my experience in my younger days. I will say this, one has to be very careful today, since the Government considers everyone to be suspect, but then, as the saying goes, there may be a loophole there, big enough to drive a semi through. Thanks again for the link.

Norman
This came after several uses dual Russian-Chinese veto. http://youtu.be/24ltPixsIGQ َThe Qassioun attack was done by the signal from the Pentagon to Israel to meet demand using nuclear and after that to look at the reaction. Subject to reflect.

I have to wonder if the Pentagon really knows what they are doing? And whose idea to police the world. Failure is just that. Who in the government is running the show, because it appears it’s a free for all there. As I’ve already said about 2015 being interesting. As for H.C., she doesn’t know which end is up, but knows where the money is.