Tag: economic

Asia Pacific markets started the trading week with gains despite China reporting that its economy grew at the lowest official pace in 28 years. Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, which was also in line with expectations. While Beijing’s official GDP figures are seen as one of the crucial indicators of China’s economic health, many outside experts have expressed skepticism about the veracity of the numbers. “Falling producer prices and new export orders point to a slowdown in China’s grow

Asia Pacific markets started the trading week with gains despite China reporting that its economy grew at the lowest official pace in 28 years.

The world’s second-largest economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, which matched analysts’ expectations, and was lower than a revised 6.8 percent growth in 2017. Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, which was also in line with expectations.

“I think what we’re seeing actually in the fourth quarter is that while the economy is decelerating, we actually still have some of the supports,” Helen Zhu, head of China equities at Blackrock, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” on Monday. “For example, for most of the quarter, from the export front loading impact that we had probably before the Argentina G-20 (summit) when people’s expectations regarding trade became a little bit more optimistic.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff escalation at the G-20 summit in Argentina late in 2018.

While Beijing’s official GDP figures are seen as one of the crucial indicators of China’s economic health, many outside experts have expressed skepticism about the veracity of the numbers.

Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, wrote in a note that China’s GDP numbers are “not an accurate gauge” of its economic growth. Still, he pointed out, the gap between the actual figures and the official targets usually shapes the government’s policy stance.

“Falling producer prices and new export orders point to a slowdown in China’s growth momentum,” Yeung added. “To celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2019, President Xi (Jinping) will still likely launch growth-supportive policies.”

The mainland Chinese markets, closely watched as a result of the ongoing U.S.-China trade fight, saw gains on the back of the data release. The Shanghai composite rose more than 0.5 percent to close at about 2,610.51 while the Shenzhen composite gained 0.607 percent to end its trading day at around 1,330.17. The Shenzhen component also advanced 0.592 percent to close at approximately 7,626.24.

Oil prices firmed on Monday after data showed China’s economic slowdown was not as big as some analysts had expected, with supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also offering support. International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.83 per barrel at 0259, up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. Both oil price benchmarks had dipped into the red earlier in the session on fears that China’s 2018 economic growth figures would be weaker. China’s Septemb

Oil prices firmed on Monday after data showed China’s economic slowdown was not as big as some analysts had expected, with supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also offering support.

International Brent crude oil futures were at $62.83 per barrel at 0259, up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.92 a barrel, up 12 cents, or 0.2 percent.

Both oil price benchmarks had dipped into the red earlier in the session on fears that China’s 2018 economic growth figures would be weaker.

In an expected cooling, China’s economy grew by 6.6 percent in 2018, its slowest expansion in 28 years and down from a revised 6.8 percent in 2017, official data showed on Monday. China’s September-December 2018 growth was at 6.4 percent, down from 6.5 percent in the previous quarter.

Although the slowdown was in line with expectations and not as sharp as some analysts had expected, the cooling of the world’s number two economy casts a shadow over global growth.

Researchers at Bernstein Energy said the supply cuts led by OPEC “will move the market back into supply deficit” for most of 2019 and that “this should allow oil prices to rise to U.S. $70 per barrel before year-end from current levels of U.S.$60 per barrel.”

In the United States, energy firms cut 21 oil rigs in the week to Jan. 18, taking the total count down to 852, the lowest since May 2018, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a weekly report on Friday.

It was biggest decline since February 2016, as drillers reacted to the 40 percent plunge in U.S. crude prices late last year.

However, U.S. crude oil production still rose by more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, to a record 11.9 million bpd.

With the rig count stalling, last year’s growth rate is unlikely to be repeated in 2019, although most analysts expect annual production to average well over 12 million bpd, making the United States the world’s biggest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum. The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months. In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and th

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its estimates for global growth on Monday, warning that the expansion seen in recent years is losing momentum.

The Fund now projects a 3.5 percent growth rate worldwide for 2019 and 3.6 percent for 2020. These are 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points below its last forecasts in October — making it the second downturn revision in three months.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the IMF’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde said: “After two years of solid expansion, the world economy is growing more slowly than expected and risks are rising. But even as the economy continues to move ahead … it is facing significantly higher risks.”

In October, the IMF cut its global growth forecasts on the back of increased trade tariffs between China and the United States. It said the latest revision is due in part to carry over from last year, mentioning weakness for German auto manufacturers due to new fuel emission standards, and soft domestic demand in Italy after recent sovereign and financial risks. But the IMF also highlighted weakening sentiment in the global financial markets and a contraction in Turkey that’s now projected to be deeper than anticipated.

According to the Fund, advanced economies have been on a declining path in terms of growth and this is taking place more rapidly than previously thought. These countries are forecast to grow 2 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2020.

At the same time, there’s also been a growth slowdown in emerging economies. The IMF projects a 4.5 percent growth rate in 2019, from 4.6 percent in 2018, before improving to 4.9 percent in 2020.

Davos, Switzerland – Former U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley poses the most significant question hovering over the global future as the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting opens here Monday. “Can the United States and China be strategic competitors and strategic cooperators at the same time?” In some 25 years of attending Davos, first with the Wall Street Journal and now at the Atlantic Council, I’ve never sensed such concern among its attendees about emerging risk: Political, eco

Davos, Switzerland – Former U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley poses the most significant question hovering over the global future as the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting opens here Monday.

“Can the United States and China be strategic competitors and strategic cooperators at the same time?” Hadley asked. “It’s what the world requires, but it’s also never been done before.”

In some 25 years of attending Davos, first with the Wall Street Journal and now at the Atlantic Council, I’ve never sensed such concern among its attendees about emerging risk: Political, economic, societal and climate. Most crucially, worry is growing over how emerging technologies – and the Sino-U.S. struggle for their commanding heights – will define or disrupt the industries and countries they inhabit.

Characteristically, World Economic Forum founder Klaus Schwab is appealing to his 3,000 participants to mold that uncertain future, representing as they do some of the most influential political, business and civil society actors of their times.

Yet the past week’s news captured some of the difficulties Western leaders face in shaping that future. The parliamentary defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit plan and President Donald Trump’s continued U.S. government shutdown have underscored the political ferment that will infect Western democracies for years to come. Both leaders cancelled their participation at Davos to deal with their immediate concerns at home.

The past week’s stories that got more of my attention, however, were the latest, contradictory episodes of the generational Chinese-U.S. drama as framed by Hadley.

On the positive side, news leaks suggested China was offering to settle its trade dispute with the U.S., through an epic offer to buy more than $1 trillion of goods. On the negative side, U.S. federal investigators were acting against China’s Huawei Technologies on allegations it stole technologies. At the same time, a bipartisan group of lawmakers in Congress has put forward legislation that would limit what U.S. companies could sell Chinese telecom operators.

Meanwhile, a North Korean emissary’s visit to Washington resulted in an agreement to arrange a second summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un at end-February. Though this would appear to be a bilateral North Korean-US affair, how it is resolved will be a test of whether the U.S. and China can find collaborative solutions to major global problems when their interests clash.

The world is largely open to immigration and multilateral cooperation, according to a new opinion poll published by the World Economic Forum (WEF). WEF, best known for hosting the annual economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, said a survey of more than 10,000 people from different parts of the world revealed that a clear majority believed that cooperation among nations was very important. The WEF report, released with web-based research firm Qualtrics, also claimed the findings exposed and debunk

The world is largely open to immigration and multilateral cooperation, according to a new opinion poll published by the World Economic Forum (WEF).

WEF, best known for hosting the annual economic forum in Davos, Switzerland, said a survey of more than 10,000 people from different parts of the world revealed that a clear majority believed that cooperation among nations was very important.

The WEF report, released with web-based research firm Qualtrics, also claimed the findings exposed and debunked a negative image of immigrants that have been pushed by media outlets around the world.

A global majority of respondents (57%) said they believed immigrants were “mostly good” for their adopted country although there were some strong regional variations.

The most welcoming regions to immigration were North America (66 %) and South Asia (72 %) of those asked stating that people coming to their country was “mostly good.”

However, only 40 percent of Eastern Europeans and 46 percent of those living in Western Europe held the same opinion.

When asked if their own country had a responsibility to help other countries, South Asia also came out on top with 94 percent agreeing with the statement.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday he had “an incredible” meeting with North Korea’s nuclear envoy Kim Yong Chol and the two sides had made “a lot of progress” on denuclearization. The White House announced after Friday talks that Trump would hold a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in late February, but would maintain economic sanctions on Pyongyang. “That was an incredible meeting,” Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said of the talks. Kim Jong Un is looking

President Donald Trump said on Saturday he had “an incredible” meeting with North Korea’s nuclear envoy Kim Yong Chol and the two sides had made “a lot of progress” on denuclearization.

The White House announced after Friday talks that Trump would hold a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in late February, but would maintain economic sanctions on Pyongyang.

“That was an incredible meeting,” Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said of the talks.

“We’ve agreed to meet sometime, probably the end of February. We’ve picked a country but we’ll be announcing it in the future. Kim Jong Un is looking very forward to it and so am I,” Trump said.

“We have made a lot of progress as far as denuclearization is concerned and we are talking about a lot of different things. Things are going very well with North Korea.”

Trump and the White House have given no details of the talks, and despite his upbeat comments there has been no indication of any narrowing of differences over U.S. demands that North Korea abandon a nuclear weapons program that threatens the United States and Pyongyang’s demands for a lifting of punishing sanctions.

A first summit in June in Singapore — the first-ever between a sitting U.S. president and a North Korean leader — produced a vague commitment by Kim Jong Un to work toward the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, but he has yet to take what Washington sees as concrete steps in that direction.

Critics of U.S. efforts say the first summit only boosted Kim’s international stature without much to show for it, and some believe Trump may see a second meeting as a way of distracting from his domestic troubles.

Trump did not elaborate on the country chosen to host the summit, but Vietnam has been considered a leading candidate.

Kim Yong Chol, regarded as a member of Kim Jong Un’s inner circle, also had talks on Friday with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the U.S. special representative on North Korea, Stephen Biegun.

The State Department said the two sides had “a productive first meeting at the working level” and Biegun would travel to Sweden at the weekend to attend an international conference.

The conference is also being attended by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. Washington has been keen to set up talks between Biegun and Choe but North Korea has resisted, apparently wanting to keep exchanges high-level.

Asked if the two would meet in Stockholm, a State Department spokeswoman said: “We have no meetings to announce.”

Germany and China on Friday signed agreements to strengthen coordination in banking, finance and capital markets, and pledged to further open market access and deepen their pragmatic cooperation to broaden economic ties. They agreed to work to improve international economic governance, maintain the global multilateral system, combat trade protectionism and support the rule-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization. A level playing field in terms of market access for ban

Germany and China on Friday signed agreements to strengthen coordination in banking, finance and capital markets, and pledged to further open market access and deepen their pragmatic cooperation to broaden economic ties.

The agreements were made at the close of a two-day visit by German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz to Beijing for talks with Vice Premier Liu He, who is President Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser.

Both sides reaffirm that “they will strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination and pragmatic cooperation in the fiscal and financial fields and expand strategic cooperation,” according to a joint statement issued at the end of their talks.

Trade between the two nations has softened amid uncertainty caused by the U.S. tariff dispute with China, but both have shown willingness to demonstrate that the world remains multilateral.

They agreed to work to improve international economic governance, maintain the global multilateral system, combat trade protectionism and support the rule-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization.

“It is important that, contrary to recent trends that we can observe elsewhere, we are seeing progress in our cooperation,” Scholz told reporters before the talks at the Diaoyutai State Guest House in the Chinese capital.

A level playing field in terms of market access for banks and insurers is important, added Scholz.

Berlin has stressed its “close and advantageous” trade ties with China, whose rise has displaced Germany from its ranking as the world’s third-biggest economy to the fourth.

At the same time, it increasingly seeks to better protect and strengthen sensitive German and European business sectors from China’s state-backed acquisitions overseas in strategic industries.

“If you work closely together, you learn to appreciate similarities, but also to know differences,” Scholz said.

“And we have a lot of common interests in financial matters, and then we need to bring different perspectives together. I believe that is the very important task of this financial dialogue,” he added.

Both sides agreed that German-Chinese cooperation benefited their economies, and they are committed to ensuring a non-discriminating, open market access environment, and to easing existing market access and investment barriers in both countries.

Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since before the U.S. presidential election in 2016 amid growing concerns over U.S. economic growth, according to data released Friday. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 this month — its lowest since October 2016 — from 98.3 in December, preliminary data showed. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to fall to 96.4. “Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirec

Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since before the U.S. presidential election in 2016 amid growing concerns over U.S. economic growth, according to data released Friday.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 90.7 this month — its lowest since October 2016 — from 98.3 in December, preliminary data showed. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to fall to 96.4.

“The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers. “Aside from the direct economic impact from these various issues on the economy, the indirect effect meant that half of all consumers believed that these events would have a negative impact on Trump’s ability to focus on economic growth.”

Curtin also said the survey showed the year-ahead economic outlook was the worst since mid-2014.

President Donald Trump and his cabinet are skipping out on Davos this week, but he’ll still be the biggest presence at the annual gathering of the world’s richest and most powerful people. “Donald Trump will be a predominant voice at Davos regardless of whether he’s there,” Tom Nides, a Morgan Stanley vice chairman and former deputy secretary of State, said in an interview. “The most important thing people are worried about globally is the U.S.-China trade relationship and the health of the glob

President Donald Trump and his cabinet are skipping out on Davos this week, but he’ll still be the biggest presence at the annual gathering of the world’s richest and most powerful people.

Whether it’s the U.S.-China trade dispute, Trump’s reported wish to withdraw from NATO, or the government shutdown threatening the world’s biggest economy, it’ll be hard to avoid discussing Trump at the World Economic Forum’s meeting in the Swiss ski town of Davos.

“Donald Trump will be a predominant voice at Davos regardless of whether he’s there,” Tom Nides, a Morgan Stanley vice chairman and former deputy secretary of State, said in an interview.

“The most important thing people are worried about globally is the U.S.-China trade relationship and the health of the global economy,” Nides said. “The reality is, the U.S. is a massive player in all conversations around Davos, and because Donald Trump has decided to be relatively controversial, that increases the likelihood that the conversations in the hallways are about Donald Trump.”

As 2019 begins, uncertainty is the only certainty. Trump, in the midpoint of his term, is grappling with showdowns at home and abroad, and repercussions are being felt around the world. His games of brinkmanship top the list of potential risks, along with Brexit, that could cripple economic growth.

Anxiety about the end of the old world order is sure to be on the minds of the Davos set – a list of attendees including billionaires Bill Gates, Ray Dalio and George Soros – a group who have been huge beneficiaries of the stability of the previous era.

“The American order is over, and we don’t know what the next order will be yet,” said Ian Bremmer, founder of consultancy Eurasia Group. “It’s a much more dangerous, chaotic period we are entering, and what people attending Davos need to think about is how to ensure resilience given the coming shocks.”

When Trump attended Davos last year to articulate his “America First” worldview and boast about the virility of the U.S. economy, he had a surging stock market and recent corporate tax cut to crow about. “America is open for business, and we are competitive once again,” he told the Davos crowd in 2018.

Now, with swaths of the U.S. government literally closed and 800,000 federal employees going without pay, economists are increasingly alarmed at the fallout, saying that if it persists, the longest shutdown in history could wipe out economic growth.

President Donald Trump has canceled his delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum, citing the ongoing partial government shutdown. “Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed, President Trump has canceled his Delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,” press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a late Thursday statement. Trump canceled his own plans to attend the forum last week citing the shu

President Donald Trump has canceled his delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum, citing the ongoing partial government shutdown.

“Out of consideration for the 800,000 great American workers not receiving pay and to ensure his team can assist as needed, President Trump has canceled his Delegation’s trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,” press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a late Thursday statement.

Earlier this week, the White House said it had planned to send Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chris Liddell, assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff for policy coordination.

Trump canceled his own plans to attend the forum last week citing the shutdown.

The annual conference in Switzerland gathers world leaders and business executives. This year’s theme is “Globalization 4.0: Shaping a Global Architecture in the Age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

Earlier Thursday, the president postponed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s planned overseas trip with other members of Congress to visit U.S. troops in Afghanistan, shortly before they were scheduled to depart on a military plane. That postponement came a day after the California Democrat sent Trump a letter, urging him to either reschedule his upcoming State of the Union address to a joint session of Congress or deliver it in writing.

A White House official told NBC News that all congressional delegations overseas that would have used federally funded military aircraft have been grounded by Trump until the shutdown ends.﻿