Who Stays?

We’re taking a break from the Mike Martz marathon to discuss the 49ers free agents: Who goes, who stays. Super fan Matt suggested I put a percentage on the chances of the perspective free agent returning to the team. Here goes:

QB Shaun Hill – Proposals have been swapped between the 49ers and Hill’s agent. His contract would have to be based heavily on playing and performance incentives. He should get starting QB’s compensation if he wins the job and posts good numbers. Injuries, however, are also a concern. He had chances to be the second-string quarterback in Minnesota but injuries in practice prevented such a move and Hill lasted only two-and-a-half games before a back injury sidelined him for the season finale. However, that move probably saved the 49ers some money. If Hill was able to start and play well, his price tag would have gone up. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 90%

DE Marques Douglas – Finished second in the league with stuffs (tackles for losses that aren’t sacks). Mike Nolan would like to have him back, not only because of his production, but also because of his leadership. Douglas is an in-your-face leader who demands a certain level of professionalism, and that’s the kind of leadership Nolan likes (he prefers a loud Ray Lewis type, than the more understated show-by-example leadership of Bryant Young). But this is no longer Nolan’s shop. New general manager Scot McCloughan will dictate how aggressively the team pursues Douglas, and McCloughan, much like his mentor in former Packers GM Ron Wolf, doesn’t favor undersized players. Douglas will likely go to free agency. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 60%.

OG Justin Smiley – He would like to be back, but he’s another undersized player, who’s coming off a injury, which is a red flag for the undersized. However, Smiley is saddle-leather tough and could fit in well with Mike Martz’s new offense. Smiley pass protects well and he’s athletic enough to pull and lead a power run play, and Martz favors the power running game. He’ll test the market more than likely. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 50%.

DT Isaac Sopoaga – In an exit meeting with Nolan, the head coach said he wanted Sopoaga back, but again, it’s not Nolan’s call. For Sopoaga, the lure of being close to Somoa and wanting to stay a 49er could keep him in San Francisco. Sopoaga did pair nicely with Aubrayo Franklin to give the defense a presence in the middle. It also helped Patrick Willis make all those tackles. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 70%.

RB Maurice Hicks – Offseason moves hurt and helped Hicks. Running backs coach Bishop Harris was a huge Hicks’ advocate and now Harris is out. But Martz likes pass-receiving running backs and Hicks is the best on the team. He also has value as a special teams player. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 70%.

CB Donald Strickland – Proved valuable with his versatility as a nickelback linebacker and extra cover man. He made one of the defensive plays of the year by knocking away an end zone, fade route throw from Cardinals wide receiver Bryant Johnson. Nolan likes his toughness, but Strickland does have an injury history. The native San Franciscan would love to return. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 60%

G Larry Allen – A source told NFL network Allen wants one more season, and the future Hall of Famer most likely wants to stay in his native Bay Area. But do the 49ers want him? He was back to his Pro Bowl self at the end of the year, but struggled early, possibly because of an ankle injury. If the 49ers don’t want to re-sign him, the Raiders might. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 35%

WR “Little” Michael Lewis – It all depends on what the 49ers fetch in the draft. If they get a punt returner, the 36-year-old might go back to driving a beer truck. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 35%

QB Chris Weinke – He could conceivably replace Trent Dilfer as the veteran presence. But that’s a long shot. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 15%

T Kwame Harris – The team is thin on tackles and Harris is well-liked by offensive line coach George Warhop. He’ll likely go to free agency and could return at a Walmart price. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 30%.

WR Bryan Gilmore – If he’s on the team, it means that A). Mike Martz really likes him. B). The 49ers didn’t upgrade their receiving corps appreciably. C). Gilmore has compromising pictures of team executives and is willing to use them. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 9.8%.

TE Billy Bajema – Hobbled by an ankle injury early in the year and wasn’t used much once he was healthy. He also doesn’t catch many passes, which isn’t good in a Martz offense. Nevertheless, he’s a hard-working, Dudley Do-Right type who could have a niche. CHANCE OF RETURNING: 75%.