Now the World becomes more and
more complex in globalization processes. But fortunately globalization lead to
creating new property of society- associative memory type behavior: Makarenko
(1994), Levkov&Makarenko (1998). Application synergetic, informatic, system
analysis allows to proposed new methodology. Our approach allows posing definition
of civilization and society culture. Proposed approach allows making background
for considering clash of civilizations by Hantington. Results of computer
geopolitical prognoses are described. Some prognoses for post- USSR Europe are
discussed. The prospects of global development prognoses and new World order
with computer illustrations are considered including concept of sustainable
development.

The recent World became more
and more complex object because of globalization process. This leads to
difficulties in decision making on all decision levels from peoples to
leaderships and governments. One of the questions of primary interest is future
World order. There exist many subproblems in future geopolitics: one pole, many
pole or distributed power, origin of new collective security organizations, the
consequences of such actions as war in Persia galf, Cosovo crisis, choice of
oil transportation way in Caspy region and many others. . Recently there are
also a lot of questions posed by NATO enlargement.

In such situation the past
experience of presidents, diplomats, experts on foreign relations is
insufficient. In case of such large object as recent society one of the useful
tools for understanding their properties are system analysis. Recent system
analysis gives global point of view on considered object as the whole. Current
system analysis incorporates achievements of cybernetics, informatics,
synergetic, philosophy, biology, sociology, politology and so on. System
analysis gives also practical tools for investigations, modeling and improving
operating of large social systems. Till now there are many applications of
system analysis as to social problems as more particular to foreign relations.
But many important and principal problems were unresolved.

Fortunately globalization of
recent society not only overcomplicate the society behavior. Our investigation
led us to the conclusion that now society has new property - associative memory
type behavior. The society can exist in small number of stable states with
transition from one state to another in historical process [1-3]. The examples
of such states of society are civilizations described by A.Toynby, C.Hantington
or formations in Marxist's investigations. In our approach the civilizations
are the stable state of global culture of society. In such case the global
culture of society is understand as all-material and mental achievements of
society.

Geopolitical relations are
the part of society. Now all countries involved in global international
community. In this community all have relations. This leads to existing
associative memory property also in system of international relations.

Establishing such property
allows us to develop the new methodology for considering as global as local
geopolitical problems.

2 PRINCIPLES OF GEOPOLITICAL MODELING

As recognized the modeling
is the part of decision support systems. There are many subjects for modeling
now and in this report it is considered mainly the problems connected to
geopolitics. There are some results and prospects of realization global models
of entirely new type (developed since 1992 by A. Makarenko [1-3]), to the
region of geopolitics. Implementations of computer programs to geopolitics were
made in Dept. MMSA of IPSA of Ukraine. The models are of neuronet type and may
have many consequences for traditional problems in diplomacy, politics,
sociology and so on.

There are some characteristic scales in
geopolitical prognosis problems. Most global is the scale where the all
countries in the World constitute complex system with many interconnections.
The Europe is only the subregion of World community. Many subregions may be
also in subregion Europe.

Let us describe the global principles of
geopolitical modeling. For more details see [4-6]. Each countries described or
by one parameter - power of state (as analogies of R. Kline) or by vector of
parameters (economic, political, military, demography and so on). Remark that
the power of country is the projection of real power on the block power. So if
the state is large but has a little influence on another states, than the power
takes zero.

The next elements of model are the
connections between the states (the scalar value for scalar model or the vector
of bounds in vector models). There are the two ways of evaluation of
connections. On first way experts on foreign relations evaluate bounds. On
second way there exists the strong mathematical formulas for bounds evaluation.
The essential components of neuronet type models are learning procedure. In our
case the learning images are some stable patterns in geopolitical relations in
Europe. There are three more or less stable patterns conventionally marked as
1914, 1939, 1990 year situations (reconstructed from bounds and from the datum
by Hand- Books on second World War, Encyclopedia Britannica, Big Soviet
Encyclopedia, C.Bennet& R.Axelrod, R.Trubaychyk and so on and consideration
of author). It is very important that the learning procedure implicitly take
into account the notion of global culture of society as described in papers
[1-3]. In particular all prehistory of foreign relations also present
implicitly in model. That is past power of countries, their blocks, mentality
of peoples and lieders are represented in models.

After the finding of connections and initial
situations on geopolitics (say for Europe the situation after the USSR broken)
the by special type formulas calculate the dynamics of interrelations and the
next stable state in geopolitics. These formulas take into account the mean
field influence from surrounding countries and culture as collective memory in
systems. From computer calculation we can see that Ukraine have a neutral
status between NATO and Russia. Remark that this configuration exist in many
variants of calculations. This is because of balance of forces from surrounding
on Ukraine. This balance coursed the series of steps in Ukraine policy in both
(NATO and Russia) directions, which neutralized each other. It should mentioned
that if the inertia parameter in model (which described the possibility of
countries change the state) decreased than there is possible stable situation
in Europe remembered the "MittelEurope" configuration with two blocks
- around Germany and of Antante type. The model also may incorporate the
changeable bounds, another initial conditions, and subdivisions on blocks and
different structures of collective security systems. For example from the model
it is easy understand the recent treaty between Russia and China as simple
reaction of Russia on decreasing of connections of East European countries,
attracting Austria to NATO and Belarussia to Russia. Calculation also displays
as possible strong consolidation of enlarged NATO in one block with neutral or
familiar with neutral states for former USSR countries. This is because the
neutral state is hardly changeable. But if initial state of former USSR
countries become more remote from neutrality than it may follows the strongest
polarization in future Europe but with enlarge NATO. Also on the base of model
we can calculate the vector of forces acted on unique country, new blocks of
countries and so on.

3. SOME FURTHER PROBLEMS

Thus in subsection 2 of this
paper are described models and results on some geopolitical prognoses. Such
approach allows also solving many problems in informational support for foreign
(and internal) affaires on governmental level. It is well known that now NATO
also is very complex organization with hierarchical structures in many levels
[7]. There are many informational problems as to the structure on NATO
organization as with negotiation, treatises, military power evaluation and so
on. We only enumerate briefly some of the future problems for solutions by this
approach.

The first package of problems consists in
expert evaluations of country states, bounds between states and possible blocks
collective security structure. Remark that the blocks may be defined by the
clasterization procedure (see [6]). The proposed approach then permit to
calculate the relatively force of different blocks and countries. Such
evaluation may be useful in negotiation on military problems on disarmament, or
form example on the Black Sea Fleet division. This approach is especially
suitable for evaluation of military power for the countries with different army
structures. Also the problem of arm forces within the country may also be
solved in this approach.

The second class of problem is the problems
of optimal structure of organizations (particularly for NATO). The way to
considering such problems is discussed in [8,9]. Such approach is easy adjusted
to the problem of different unions and to the international economical theory
and practice. Moreover, the global ecological problems also may be considered
in such frames (Makarenko, 1997). As the simplest application the models can
evaluate the influence of future collective security system on ecological
pollution in Europe.

It is supposed that all such problems
should be conceded on the unified for all European countries technical bases as
hardware as software. Firstly all data may by integrated in unique database
system. The tools for communication may be the computer networks as INTERNET
and common graphical tool say as MAPINFO. In Ukraine such unified database is
created among others in the "Intellectual Systems GEO Ltd" (ISGEO).
For final maps are drawing in MAPINFO system with the assistance IS GEO. The
author thanks them for assistance. Author also grateful to S.Levkov, V.Melnik,
A.Vlasuk for collaboration and to K.Laskavenko for the helping in creations
some computer programs.