Can Venezuela's socialist government survive wave of protests?

By Catherine E. Shoichet, CNN

Updated 9:43 AM ET, Mon February 24, 2014

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Protests in Venezuela – A member of the Bolivarian National Police clashes with protestors during a demonstration against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas on Saturday, May 10. Clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces have left more than 40 people dead and about 800 injured since February, according to officials.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan riot police stormed four encampments of opposition students on Thursday, May 8, across Caracas, including one in front of the United Nations headquarters in the capital city, detaining hundreds.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan National Guard personnel in riot gear dismantle a students' encampment in front of the U.N. headquarters in Caracas on May 8.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan riot police arrest a student taking part in an anti-government protest in Caracas on May 8.

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Protests in Venezuela – Members of the Venezuelan National Guard detain a man during a protest against the government of President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, on Saturday, April 26. Over several months, protesters unhappy with Venezuela's economy and rising crime have squared off against security forces.

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Protests in Venezuela – Demonstrators destroy a bank sign in Caracas during a protest against the government on Sunday, April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – Police officers shield themselves from fireworks thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – A man helps an injured demonstrator in Caracas on April 20.

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Protests in Venezuela – A masked protester watches clashes with the National Police in Caracas on Thursday, April 17.

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Protests in Venezuela – A police officer runs from a fire set off by a Molotov cocktail thrown by protesters in Caracas on April 17.

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Protests in Venezuela – A masked anti-government demonstrator throws a tear gas canister back at National Police during clashes in Caracas on Saturday, April 12.

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Protests in Venezuela – A protester shouts for fellow demonstrators to not attack the National Police trapped under a highway with protesters during clashes on April 12.

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Protests in Venezuela – A student opposed to the Venezuelan government looks toward the National Police during a protest outside the Central University of Venezuela in Caracas on Thursday, April 3.

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Protests in Venezuela – An opposition student struggles with members of a pro-government group at the Central University of Venezuela on April 3.

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Protests in Venezuela – People shout insults at police Tuesday, April 1, during clashes between police and anti-government protesters in Caracas.

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Protests in Venezuela – Members of Venezuela's National Police clash with demonstrators in the Cachao sector of Caracas on Monday, March 31.

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Protests in Venezuela – Protesters clash with members of Venezuela's National Police during a protest against President Nicolas Maduro's government on Sunday, March 30, in Caracas.

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Protests in Venezuela – Officers stand guard during an anti-government march in Caracas on Saturday, March 29.

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Protests in Venezuela – Thousands fill the streets of Caracas on Saturday, March 22, during an anti-government protest. Meanwhile, a crowd of pro-government students marched against what they called "fascist violence."

Protests erupt in Venezuela – An activist is taken by police during an anti-government protest in Caracas on March 13.

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Protests in Venezuela – Police officers put out a Molotov cocktail on March 13.

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Protests in Venezuela – Venezuelan students clash with riot police during a protest against the government on Wednesday, March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Students walk amid tear gas shot by riot police in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters run from a water cannon blast shot by police in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A police officer is removed from the front line of clashes after being overwhelmed by tear gas in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An injured protester is helped away in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A riot policeman kicks back a tear gas bomb during a protest in Caracas on March 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester throws a tear gas canister in Altamira, Venezuela, on Sunday, March 9.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police keep formation during protests against the government in Caracas on Saturday, March 8.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members arrest an anti-government protester during clashes in the Los Ruices neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, March 6.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members take cover as a firecracker launched by protesters explodes nearby in Caracas on Wednesday, March 5.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An activist throws tear gas back at riot police during a protest against the government March 5 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with the National Guard during a protest in Caracas on Tuesday, March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members are deployed in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester throws a tear gas canister toward National Guard members in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Anti-government demonstrators gather during a protest in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters destroy a wall March 4 to get more rocks to throw at riot police in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members detain a protester March 4 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A National Guard officer points a tear gas launcher at demonstrators in Caracas on March 4.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters use a giant slingshot to launch stones at police during clashes in Caracas on Monday, March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard members throw tear gas canisters toward opposition activists in Caracas on March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester tries to throw a homemade bomb during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester ducks during clashes with police March 3 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A National Guard member shoots tear gas during protests in Caracas on March 3.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A masked protester with a makeshift shield kicks a tear gas canister launched by the National Guard during clashes in Caracas on Sunday, March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Activists in Caracas march in protest against the government on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester hurls a Molotov cocktail at National Guard troops on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester shouts during clashes with government forces in Caracas on March 2.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – National Guard officers stand in formation after a patrol in Valencia, Venezuela, on Saturday, March 1.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with police forces in Caracas on March 1.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator attends a rally with human rights activists in Caracas on Friday, February 28.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters take cover from a police water cannon in Caracas on February 28.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator throws a rock at police during an anti-government protest in Valencia on Wednesday, February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A policeman fires his shotgun to disperse protesters in Valencia on February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Women march to the National Guard headquarters in Caracas on February 26 to protest what they call excessive use of force against anti-government demonstrations.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – An employee of a supermarket in Maracay, Venezuela, inspects the damage done by looters on February 26.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man stands next to a burning street barricade during a protest against the Venezuelan government in Caracas on Monday, February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Henrique Capriles, an opposition leader and governor of the Venezuelan state of Miranda, joins in a news conference February 24 in Caracas. Opposition leaders and government officials blame each other for the unrest, and both sides show no sign of backing down.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A pedestrian moves past a burning barricade blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro acknowledges the crowd during a motorcycle rally organized in support of his government February 24 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lilian Tintori de Lopez, the wife of jailed opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez, center, walks hand in hand with actress Norkys Batista, left, and lawmaker Maria Corina Machado as they arrive for a news conference in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A motorcyclist, left, argues with demonstrators blocking a highway in Caracas on February 24.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man wearing a T-shirt with the likeness of Latin American hero Simon Bolivar joins in a pro-government march in Caracas on Sunday, February 23.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A man carries a woman overcome by tear gas that was fired at anti-government protesters in Caracas on Saturday, February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Anti-government protesters take cover during clashes with riot police in Caracas on February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands take to the streets of Caracas on February 22 to protest the government.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lilian Tintori de Lopez attends an anti-government demonstration in Caracas on February 22.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A Venezuelan protester waves a flag in front of a burning barricade in Caracas on Friday, February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters face National Guard troops in San Cristobal, Venezuela, on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A woman waves a Venezuelan flag out of her Caracas window on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A masked protester sprays a flammable substance on a barricade during protests in Caracas on February 21.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Barricades set up by opposition protesters block a road in the Altamira neighborhood of Caracas on Thursday, February 20.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester adds fuel to a fire during clashes with police in Caracas on February 20.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters light fires during an anti-government demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters throw stones at riot police in Caracas on February 19. Protesters have been demanding better security, an end to scarcities, and protected freedom of speech.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Members of the National Police protect themselves during a protest in Caracas on February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Two women sit in front of a line of National Guard officers outside the Palace of Justice in Caracas on February 19.

Protests erupt in Venezuela – A supporter of Venezuelan opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez protests outside of the Palace of Justice in Caracas on February 19.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Leopoldo Lopez is escorted by members of the Venezuelan National Guard on Tuesday, February 18, after turning himself in to authorities.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Lopez supporters light fires in the streets of Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands of demonstrators gather in support of Lopez in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester faces riot police February 18 during a march in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – President Maduro raises his fist during a rally in Caracas on February 18, in this photo released by the Venezuelan government. Maduro and his supporters have blamed the opposition for causing the very problems it protests.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester confronts the National Guard as they block the path leading to downtown Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Protesters clash with the National Guard during demonstrations in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Demonstrators stand on a highway during a protest outside La Carlota airport in Caracas on February 18.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A young woman argues with members of the Venezuelan National Guard during an anti-government protest in Caracas on Monday, February 17.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A group of protesters raise their hands during a demonstration in Caracas on Sunday, February 16. The country has an inflation rate of 56.2%, the highest in the world, and many basic goods are missing from store shelves.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator shouts for riot police not to fire tear gas in Caracas on Saturday, February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A student protester returns a tear gas canister to riot police on February 15 in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Riot police stand during clashes in Caracas on February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Thousands of students lie on the ground during a protest in front of the Venezuelan Judiciary building in Caracas on February 15.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Students stand in front of police February 14 outside the Caracas headquarters for the Organization of American States.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – On Thursday, February 13, relatives, friends and pro-government supporters carry the coffin of a man who was killed during a protest in Caracas.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Opposition leader Leopoldo Lopez greets supporters during a demonstration in Caracas on Wednesday, February 12. Lopez was charged with murder, terrorism and arson in connection with the protests, according to his party, Popular Will. Lopez denies the accusations, the party said in a statement.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – The body of a protester is carried away after gunshots were fired during an anti-government rally in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police detain a student in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A protester walks past a line of riot police in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – A demonstrator is detained after jumping over a riot police line in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Riot police protect themselves during an opposition rally in Caracas on February 12.

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Protests erupt in Venezuela – Police detain a student during clashes in Caracas on February 12.

Opposition leaders and government officials blame each other for the unrest, and both sides show no sign of backing down.

No matter who you believe, it's clear that tensions are running high in Venezuela.

The anti-government demonstrations are the biggest threat President Nicolas Maduro has faced since his election last year. And inside and outside the South American country's borders, there's a major question many are asking: Could this be the beginning of the end for Venezuela's socialist government?

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What's next for Venezuela's opposition?

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A variety of scenarios could play out in the coming days, depending on the steps authorities and protesters take. And, with so many factors in flux, it's difficult to guess what's next.

"Anything can happen now," said Javier Corrales, a professor of political science at Amherst College. "This is a real crisis on all fronts. The government has ways to survive...but at the same time, it can lose this battle."

Maduro has vowed to crack down on other opposition leaders like him, calling them fascists and comparing them to a disease that must be cured.

He's defended that approach in national television broadcasts, accusing protesters of violence, vandalism and plotting a slow-motion coup.

"Is capturing these people repression? Or is it justice?" Maduro said after airing videos during a national broadcast that he said showed opposition attacks on government buildings.

Any ratcheting up of repression could have a major cost for the government, possibly turning supporters at home and abroad against it, said David Smilde, a senior fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America.

"In contrast to Venezuela's serious problem with street crime, for which the government does not traditionally pay a political price, for this kind of repression it will," Smilde wrote in an analysis of the situation this week. "At best, it reveals a government that cannot control its guns. At worst, it reveals a government that is as violent as its opponents have long claimed."

On the other hand, the government could defuse the situation.

"If the government responds in some way and deals with the situation by relieving some of the distress and trying not to clamp down further, and showing some flexibility and some willingness to engage in some dialogue and moderation, then I think it could weather this period," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank.

Support from Chavistas

There's one major reason analysts point to when they say that Venezuela's socialist government isn't approaching any sort of imminent collapse: Many people in the country are still behind the President.

"Maduro has a lot of support," said George Ciccariello-Maher, an assistant professor of political science at Drexel University. "He's not Chavez, but he's seen as a relatively faithful representative of what Chavez stood for."

Chavez was elected and re-elected in large part thanks to support from the country's poor, who felt marginalized by previous governments. He tapped into their needs and frustrations -- often through confrontations with the Venezuelan elite.

Throngs of Maduro's dedicated followers still call themselves Chavistas in devotion to the former president.

Even though Maduro is nowhere near as charismatic as Chavez, for many, he's still better than the alternative, Shifter said.

"They perceive that there are parts of the opposition that want to go back to pre-Chavez Venezuela, which basically ignored the concerns of the poor," Shifter said. "They don't want to lose what they think they've gained."

A key challenge for the opposition is chipping away at Chavistas' support for the government. If they can win over Chavez loyalists, that could tip the scales.

Ciccariello-Maher, who authored "We Created Chavez: A People's History of the Venezuelan Revolution," argues that's not likely. The revolution, he says, is much bigger than Chavez or Maduro.

"The Chavista government has been in power for more than 14 years and has won a larger number of elections than any other government essentially on earth because they mobilized the poor and have a strong support base among the poor, and also a chunk of the middle class," Ciccariello-Maher said. "This support base is not going anywhere, and it's not going to disintegrate because a relatively small number of students are protesting in relatively middle class areas of the country."

The opposition says that's one of many painful examples that show the government's mishandling of the country's finances.

While the populist platform of sharing Venezuela's vast oil wealth with the poor and disenfranchised has helped reduce poverty, critics have warned that flawed economic policies -- such as currency controls and expropriation of private companies -- set the country on a crash course toward financial ruin.

Despite government efforts to stem inflation with price controls, analysts have said the economic picture looks bleak.

It's no coincidence that tensions are running high while Venezuela faces significant economic problems, experts say.

"This has been sort of a cyclical phenomenon of protests in Venezuela," Shifter said. "But I think we're at a different point in the evolution of a situation, a point where the economic situation is what's driving what's happening...more than anything else, just the shear economic desperation for many people and the shortages and the rising inflation."

And if those problems worsen, it's not good for the government.

"If Venezuela experiences a serious economic meltdown, the opposition movement could grow, despite not making any efforts to reach beyond its traditional base," Smilde said.

Military might

Right now, analysts say the military seems to be squarely behind Maduro.

That wasn't the case in 2002, when Chavez was briefly ousted from power by a military coup.

"The military is much more Chavista than it was in 2002," Ciccariello-Maher said.

But there could come a moment, Corrales said, when the military's loyalties are challenged.

"If they are asked to be repressive," he said, "they will face a difficult choice of whether to comply or not."

Who's protesting?

The recent protests have highlighted growing discontent with Venezuela's government, but also rifts within the opposition -- a disparate group of parties that banded together in an attempt to defeat Chavez at the polls and now hope Maduro's government will fall.

Henrique Capriles Radonski, a leading opposition politician who lost his bid for the presidency last year, has been trying to take a more moderate approach and build a broader support base.

But Lopez and other opposition leaders have pushed for protests in the streets.

"Behind the scenes, the opposition is very much cracking," Ciccariello-Maher said.

If more militant members of the opposition attempt a coup, he said, that will only backfire the next time Venezuelans head to the polls.

Smilde said he's seen how much Lopez's impassioned speeches have fired up crowds.

"This movement is energizing the opposition base in a way they haven't been in eight years," Smilde said. "But there seems to be little effort to reach out to disgruntled Chavistas, or broaden the message towards issues of equality and poverty reduction that might mobilize a broader coalition."

The toughest challenge the opposition faces might be keeping up the momentum they've started.

"It's very hard to sustain protests. There have been other moments when there have been protests in Venezuela, and they come and they go," Shifter said. "If this one goes and sort of dies down, then I think Lopez, his star may fade, and this whole episode may pass."