Bubble Meter is a national housing bubble blog dedicated to tracking the continuing decline of the housing bubble throughout the USA. It is a long and slow decline. Housing prices were simply unsustainable. National housing bubble coverage. Please join in the discussion.

Data through September 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that nationally home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. The national index posted an annual decline of 3.9%, an improvement over the 5.8% decline posted in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are back to their first quarter of 2003 levels. ...

The chart [above] depicts the annual returns of the U.S. National, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite Home Price Indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a 3.9% decline in the third quarter of 2011 over the third quarter of 2010. In September, the 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual rates of decline of 3.3% and 3.6%, respectively. Eighteen of the 20 MSAs and both monthly Composites had negative annual rates in September 2011, the only exceptions being Detroit and Washington DC.

Comments...The most recent numbers are subject to revision, and I expect that Sep 188.07 number to be revised down by a fair amount. That said, given that the average of our bets is 178.0, I see no chance it (once revised) gets anywhere near this. So it appears safe to say JAC and I are now 4-4, 8 months in to the 24 month bet. Given that JAC's predictions trend down even further from here, I suspect I will win the next 16 months in a row, and ultimately, the end result (i.e. Dec 2012 will be closer to my 188.5 vs his 165.5).

Oh, and finally, let this be a lesson to all you delusional, clueless, permabear lurkers out there (Not JAC who is bearish yet rational). Washington DC hit bottom in March 2009 at 165. Today, it is hovering in the high 180 range.

Contrary to your insipid, baseless assessments, that March 2009 was "Nowhere near the bottom", the facts show how utterly and devastatingly wrong you all were. Inventory made it clear to me that Mar 09 was bottom and I called it as such (starting May 09). Had you listened to me, you would have been able to buy near the bottom. Instead, you chose to insult.

Well turn about is fair play my friends. Thus, let me say, oh so smugly, and oh so triupmhantly to each and every one of you, (including especially NOZ and NONPARTISAN)....

Partisan, I've been keeping up with our competition and you're right, it's not looking good for me at all! I am still concerned that housing prices will edge down again for a few reasons: 1) the multiple of house prices to income is just really out of wack 2) I think folks might discover that owing a house in a transitional neighborhood with a crummy school is not what they thought it was going to be, and finally 3) some outlier event such as the elimination of the mortgage interest tax deduction. All that said, it's going to be very tough for me to win any of the remaining months! The development of DC has continued apace--perhaps the improved governance factor will just overwhelm everything else...if the schools become decent, then that would truly be the nail in the coffin of my projection...

BTW, I no longer have access to the comments from work, I don't know what the deal is there...but that is the reason for my relative silence lately...