Strike Up The Electronic Synthesizers

July 26, 1986|By Peter Francese, Cowles Syndicate

Summertime wouldn't be complete without a concert band playing in the park. But if present trends continue, the concert band of tomorrow may be an entirely electronic affair playing synthesized music through huge loudspeakers. For the last five years, the sales of wind instruments have been trending downward, while the sales of electronic synthesizers have been skyrocketing.

After reaching a peak in 1981 of $125 million, the sales of wind instruments by domestic manufacturers fell to $105 million in 1985. And the electronics are catching up quickly.

In 1981 only $20 million worth of U.S.-made synthesizers were sold here, but 1985 manufacturers' sales had more than tripled to $63 million. This year analysts estimate that domestic synthesizer sales will increase another 25 percent to reach almost $80 million. They project that within 10 years U.S. sales of electronic musical instruments will exceed wind and string instruments combined.

The trend in imported musical instruments depends a lot on the value of the dollar. But last year Business Trends Analysts estimated the value of imported electronic instruments at $187 million vs. only $101 million for brass and woodwinds. So, if domestic and imported instruments are combined, the electronic stuff already exceeds the winds.

Where are we headed? Are we doomed to a future of listening to synthetically produced sounds blasting the park on a warm summer evening, or will brass bands stage a comeback?

A lot depends on how American manufacturers choose to market their instruments. If they continue to concentrate on the elementary and secondary school market, which traditionally has been their most important segment, then I think we are going electronic because children like to play instruments that are easy to learn, and that they see on MTV.

So, maybe if we're lucky, the makers of musical instruments will turn their attention to older Americans, age 45 and over. They are projected by the Census Bureau to increase 18 percent in the next decade, and will have both increased income to buy musical instruments as well as, with the trend toward early retirement, increased leisure time to play them. They also may have the nostalgia for the brass and woodwind band instruments of their childhood.

It is not really clear which way will prevail, but, ultimately, I suspect both types of bands will co-exist, one at either end of the park.