All there in black and white ... a Queensland professor has written on a thesis casting doubt on Wayne Bennett's lofty reputation. Photo: Paul Rovere

Wayne Bennett has been lauded as arguably the greatest rugby league coach of them all. His record of seven premierships - at two different clubs - is the most of any clipboard holder in the history of the Australian game. While Jack Gibson was selected coach of the Team of the Century, Bennett's subsequent success with the Dragons has prompted many to anoint him a superior mentor. However, Professor John Mangan has gone against popular opinion and questioned whether Bennett is worthy of ''super coach'' status. His paper is titled: How much is a coach worth; the problem of decomposition in sport and whether or not Wayne Bennett is a Super Coach?

AUTHOR

Front runner ... Wayne Bennett hopes to repeat his premiership wins with the Broncos in 2000, pictured, and the Dragons in 2010 at Newcastle. Photo: Steve Christo

Mangan is a professor of economics and associate dean (research) in the faculty of business, economics and law at the University of Queensland. His qualifications include a bachelor of economics, a diploma of education and a master of economic studies from the University of Queensland, as well as a master of arts and a PhD in economics from the University of Lancaster in Britain. This is not the first time Mangan, an avid sports fan, has taken a ''sportenomics'' approach in his analysis. In a previous paper, published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, he came up with a new way of ranking Test batsmen using measures including a contribution to a team's scores and performances home and away. While, predictably, Sir Donald Bradman came out on top - ''We tried to bring Bradman down a bit … but we couldn't do it'' - he produced a reordering of rankings in which some of the game's biggest names didn't fare so well.

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METHODOLOGY

Mangan set out eight indicators he believed were essential in judging a super coach:

1. Overall and relative success rates at the club level.

2. Success rate in grand finals.

3. Success rate in all qualifying and semi-finals.

4. Success rate against other top coaches.

5. Overall and relative success at Origin level.

6. Overall and relative success rate at international level.

7. Ability to win with unfancied or weaker teams.

8. Impact on other coaches (including mentoring) and impact on the nature of the game.

It was on these indicators, up until mid-2011, that Bennett was judged.

ANALYSIS

Mangan said he came into this study without any preconceived ideas. ''Certainly this isn't an attack on Wayne Bennett,'' Mangan told The Sun-Herald. ''It's not personal. I was just looking at what constitutes a super coach - and he's regarded as the super coach.''

However, Mangan found one exception among Bennett's results. After reading a newspaper article, he noted with interest Bennett's abysmal record at Suncorp Stadium - eight losses from as many attempts. Later, Mangan would state in his paper there was just a one-in-1000 probability that this was down to random chance.

As he continued his study, further anomalies emerged. Bennett's overall record - with a win rate of 64 per cent at the time of publication - was equal-second with Bob Fulton, while his seven-from-seven strike rate as head coach in grand finals was remarkable. But while he won every decider he contested, Bennett's finals record was surprisingly modest. Under criteria three, Mangan noted the Broncos had won 14 of the 30 play-off matches under Bennett for a win rate of 47 per cent.

''Does a super coach lose that many big games in a row?'' Mangan said of the anomalies. ''I thought: 'This man is getting paid much more than anybody else - is he really any better?'''

And so the study continued. Under criteria four, Bennett was put head to head against other NRL coaches. While he fared well against fellow veterans Tim Sheens and Brian Smith (losing just 30 and 33 per cent of games respectively), he had his own bogeymen. Bennett-coached teams lost 62 per cent of games to Fulton and 66 per cent to Craig Bellamy. But the most unexpected stat was that he lost 75 per cent of games to the man he replaced at St George Illawarra, Nathan Brown. ''People forget that St George [Illawarra] did better to get to the preliminaries under Nathan Brown than they did in Bennett's first year,'' Mangan mused.

The blowtorch was also applied to his representative record. Mangan rated Bennett's State of Origin success rate of 50 per cent ''average'' - given the traditionally tight nature of the interstate contest. His 75 per cent record with the Kangaroos was much lower than Ricky Stuart (84.5 per cent), Bob Fulton (82) and Tim Sheens (80 at the time of writing). That, coupled with the loss of the 2005 Four Nations tournament, earned Bennett a ''below average'' mark from Mangan.

Another indicator was Bennett's record with unfancied teams. However, this, Mangan claimed, was not applicable due to the fact he oversaw strong rosters at Brisbane and St George Illawarra. The author wrote: ''Certainly [in my opinion] there is nothing in his record to match the achievement of Warren Ryan in getting Newtown to a grand final in 1981 or Tim Sheens in winning a comp with the Tigers in 2005 or Chris Anderson winning in 1999 with Melbourne in only their second year of competition.'' Some of Bennett's teams have been comprised primarily of representative stars, while Ryan piloted a Canterbury side to the title with just one ex-international, Steve Mortimer, at his disposal in 1984.

In an interesting aside, it's understood that Bennett has turned to Ryan for advice on occasion. It's known by many in league circles that Bennett picked up the phone some years ago and said words to the effect of: ''What's wrong with my back line?''

Ryan outlined the flaws in the Broncos' approach, including the depth at which Darren Lockyer was positioned in the back line, by pointing him towards a video clip of a Newcastle try. The vision showed the benefit of executing plays late and at the line.

Mangan noted, as part of his final set of criteria, that relatively few coaches - Bellamy is a notable exception - had acknowledged Bennett's contribution to their development. This is in contrast to the likes of Sheens and Ryan, credited with influencing many of their contemporaries.

However, Mangan also noted Bennett had many strengths, namely man management, strong defensive strategies and an unstinting loyalty from his players. Told that it was unusual to question Bennett's credentials, Mangan quipped: ''I think it's against the law up in Queensland.'' The Sun-Herald sent a copy of the thesis to Bennett, who declined to comment on its findings.

CONCLUSION

So is Wayne Bennett a super coach? ''Obviously we haven't made a definitive statistical model, so it's subjective,'' Mangan said. ''But no, I don't think so.

''I think he has outstanding characteristics in people management and there are some problems in keeping a group of superstars together, which is a skill in itself. But when you remove the advantage of having great players and being in one-team towns, then he doesn't appear to do any better than most of the top coaches.

''I'm not saying that he's not a good coach, obviously he is. But a super coach would tend to suggest that you're a cut above other people and the data doesn't suggest that at all.''

So who would be more deserving of the title? Mangan was impressed with Ryan's ability to gain results from teams of differing talent, but given ''Wok'' hadn't been afforded the same opportunities as Bennett at representative level, it wasn't possible to compare apples with apples.

''On the other hand, if you look at Craig Bellamy's record, it's superb at club level but very poor at [representative level],'' Mangan said. ''Bob Fulton remains underrated. He had a good team but he has a bloody good record.

''All time, I'd go Warren Ryan or Craig Bellamy. Those two were outstanding. Then you've got Fulton and Bennett roughly on even pegging. If I was picking someone to keep a team up - to avoid relegation, for instance - I'd go for Brian Smith. He tends to keep a team up but never wins with them.''

Mangan's study concluded before Bennett's much-heralded arrival at Newcastle. The academic said the playing roster at the Knights wasn't yet at the standard Bennett enjoyed for most of his career, making this the greatest challenge of his career.

''It's a real test for him at Newcastle and if he succeeds, then perhaps all that I've written is wrong,'' Mangan concluded.