Impressive jet dynamics with this system, but surface temperatures are a problem.

If surface temperatures were 5F cooler this could be the biggest event of the year for me. As it is looks like another run of the mill 1-2" event.

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

Temperature shot up to 49 as of 15 minutes ago, but rain has now begun so temperatures should drop into the upper 30s before too long. Then I have several hours of cold rain to look forwards to before a change over to wet snow occurs around sunset.

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

Carmi, IL switched to snow around noon today with a fairly impressive radar presentation at the moment yet their current NWS forecast reads:

QUOTE

A chance of sprinkles, mixing with flurries after 4pm, then gradually ending. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 33 by 5pm. North northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

It was 34F at 12:15 pm so I think the NWS has some revisions to do today.

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win

I picked up 1/2" of solidly frozen slush. The kind of event I could have done without, but I shouldn't complain or else I'll get nothing next time

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win