China Trade

China: Trade conditions moderate slightly in October

November 10, 2014

In October, exports increased 11.6% over the same month last year, which was a deterioration over the 15.3% expansion tallied in September. The print beat the 10.6% increase that market analysts had expected. Imports decelerated in October, rising 4.6% annually, which was below the 7.0% expansion observed in the previous month. The monthly increase was slightly below the 5.0% expansion that market analysts had expected.

The trade surplus widened from September’s USD 31.0 billion to USD 45.4 billion in October, which was well above the USD 31.0 billion recorded in the same month last year. Moreover, the print overshot market expectations of a USD 42.0 billion surplus. The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus rose from USD 321 billion in September to USD 336 billion in October, which represented the highest level on record.

The government set the growth target for the total volume of exports and imports at 7.5% for this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that merchandise exports will grow 6.2% in 2014 (USD 2.3 trillion) and they see the trade surplus reaching USD 286 billion. For 2015, the panel expects exports to increase 8.2% and the trade surplus to widen to USD 310 billion.

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Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.

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