前瞻國家未來發展，我認為研考會應該更加勇於承擔此「智庫」角色，抱持理想，成為開闊的思考者、高遠的觀念創始者、及強有力的政策規劃推行管理者，把「優質政府管理」引領到一個新境界。在實際作為上，下列幾點應格外重視： － 國家事務要看得高又遠。有廣闊、高遠、超然的思考，秉持「中立」與「自由」之精神深思熟慮問題，新舊多方比較整合，知所取捨。研考會除了開闊思考，實際作為上應勇於碰觸國家更高層面的政策課題，例如，憲政的問題、國家體制的問題….等，改革最短的路宜由建立正當體制結構做起；今年「亂」字成為國家社會的寫照，因選舉而扭曲了正當的行政做為，有無能力去改變？「中立」與「自由」的精神在於抱持宏觀超然，我以為追求「優質政府治理」是政府的責任，以福國利民。在優質以外，如果加上一點優雅的治理品味，則更佳。政府行政變革，有所變，有所不變；有所為，有所不為；施政要求效能，但是宜深思熟慮，要不慌忙，避免急就章提出一堆急忙的可能錯失的施政。用優雅的態度去找到平衡點，穩重向前發展，應是政府的責任所在，也是有品味的「優質政府治理」的意義所在。 － 觀念引導做為，創新的、良善的觀念引導國家社會不斷向前進步發展。一個良好的觀念創始者，應如同一個優良的選礦技師知道如何用工具、方法，耐心去篩選礦砂提煉金、銀。Peter Senge的第五項修煉有兩個十分寶貴的觀點：（1）凡事全面看系統，見樹又見林，又能從小處去執行；（2）深談（Dialogue），讓多面向的深談成為管理文化，持開闊的心胸，廣納各方意見才能把事情做好，產生好結果。有云：「他山之石，可以為玉；他山之石，可以攻錯」一點不錯，學世界標杆，和學者、政府同仁、廣大民眾深談，都十分有益於形成開創性的良善觀念，形成優質政策。我這樣說，好像有點高調不易做到，其實，這是行政心態和文化問題，把它當成必要的修煉，是應該做到的。我很喜歡兩個棒極的網站，一個是「我們的希望地圖－讓我們，抱著希望創造未來吧http://hopemap.net/aboutus.php」，另一個是「TED, Ideas worth spreading（http://www.ted.com/index.php/ ）」；請大家一定不要錯過，親自上網閱讀。前者是2008總統選舉前由一群關愛我們國家社會的仁愛人士發起設立，茲引述首頁一段願景講話：「……就讓我們在這些基本的立足點上，拼出台灣未來的希望地圖吧。未來的希望地圖是大家的，也是每一個人自己所形成的。千萬個懷著冷靜與善意的國民，共同拼出的這個希望地圖，將送給未來的總統當選人。請他接受我們的付託。……」 這是一個傾聽民意的好地方，至今上面有給新總統、關於個人、社會、世界的300萬個希望。後者TED 是 Technology, Entertainment, Design的縮寫，現在有更廣的範疇。我直接引述：” TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from those three worlds. Since then its scope has become ever broader. The annual conference now brings together the world's most fascinating thinkers and doers, who are challenged to give the talk of their lives (in 18 minutes). This site makes the best talks and performances from TED available to the public, for free……Our mission: Spreading ideas. We believe passionately in the power of ideas to change attitudes, lives and ultimately, the world. ……..”它開宗明義說”Ideas worth spreading; Inspired talks by the world's leading thinkers and doers.” 在這裡我們可以讀到聽到世界前導思想家也是實踐者十分珍貴的前瞻觀念和看到他們的實踐行為。舉一個例子：Ms. Ann Cooper是一位食品營養專家，原來是加州一家法國餐廳的大廚師；她關心美國小孩的健康，發覺學校午餐有大量加工食品是有害健康的，將使他們長大後高比率得肥胖、糖尿病或血管疾病。她到處演講疾呼改善小孩午餐飲食，推廣烹飪生蔬營養食物午餐。她後來接受Berkeley County 邀聘為the head of nutrition for Berkeley, California, schools，並實踐推廣至全國許多地方，造福無數小孩。我深為這個從良善觀念到實踐改善小孩健康飲食的故事所感動。其它尚有許多例子，我以為我們政府、學界、民間各界都可以從中借鏡。民間有無限活力，一樣有社會責任，引導創新觀念，一齊參與社會改造，這也是國家治理的一環。 － 研考會賦有政策規劃推行管理者的角色，就應是一個理性前瞻的規劃者，一個強有力的管理者；前瞻才能帶動國家平衡進步發展，強有力的管理才能發揮政府各機關的執行力和效能。我只提醒，政府一向重視中長程政策規劃，先期作業要更加加強，良好政策一定經由深思熟慮才形成；但是也不可任意出主意，有些粗糙的政策要刪除。我的認知，有些政府施政計畫規劃是欠缺「精確」的，如此將造成資源浪費或無法達成執行績效，過猶不及和不夠都是不適當的。地方治理越來越重要，但是計畫能力較為薄弱，應予大力協助加強觀摩、培養。部會施政管理和機關績效管理甚好，也有創新的作法，各部會每年的年度績效報告皆需上網公告，公開接受社會大眾的檢視，以促使各部會落實績效管理制度。有一則新聞故事，金管會主委陳冲上任4天，首次到立院財委會接受質詢，立委羅淑蕾就以陳冲的著作「法國狼與貓頭鷹」為題，詢問陳冲要當出主意的貓頭鷹，還是有執行力的法國狼，陳冲率直回答「貓頭鷹加法國狼」。其實，研考會也要學陳冲做有智慧出主意的貓頭鷹，也是有執行力的法國狼。此外，研考會一向著重政府內部管理，社會上經常發生民間對政府公權力有不平的抗議，有無可能當作創新的延伸的政府外部管理事項，隨時去關注，協助解決。例如，報載三鷹部落的原住民從今年二月起遭到台北縣政府強力迫遷，發動數次抗爭，名導演侯孝賢也落髮參加聲援。當然，地方事務由地方政府處理是對的，但是特殊情事，中央給予適當的共同關注和協助，可能有助於解決問題，維護社會和諧。我們常說「人民的小事，是政府的大事」，真誠關懷民眾，特別是對於弱勢群族、團體的關懷幫助，就是政府的責任，「優質治理」的具體實踐在大事，也在小事。行政院研考會四十有成，我們深覺與有榮焉。我再次引《詩經》〈衛風．淇奧〉來祝頌瞻彼淇奧，綠竹猗猗。有匪君子，如切如磋，如琢如磨。 瑟兮僴兮，赫兮烜兮。有匪君子，終不可諼兮。

英國發明人柏內茲里ShareThisMay 2, 2008 - 2:45 AM | Related Entries - Computing | Comments (0)WWW inventor thinks web still an infantWhat's exciting is that people are building new social systems, new systems of review, new systems of governance hope is that those will produce... new ways of working together effectively and fairly which we can use globally to manage ourselves as a planet. The comments came on the anniversary of the announcement by CERN on April 30, 1993 that, the World Wide Web could be used by everyone, after Berners-Lee and a colleague persuaded their bosses to provide the program code for free. The web -- of which the abbreviation www forms the start of all online addresses -- is now the ubiquitous network via which information is shared on the Internet. An estimated 165 million websites now exist, the BBC reported. Robert Cailliau, who worked with Berners-Lee to open up the web, stressed that not all the bosses at CERN were in favour of making the web universally accessible. Competing technologies -- such as Gopher developed at the University of Minnesota in the United States -- were also offering a way of connecting documents on the Internet, he said. If they had put a price on it like the University of Minnesota had done with Gopher then it would not have expanded into what it is now.

The World Wide Web is still only in its infancy its British inventor Tim Berners-Lee seen here in 2001 said on the 15th anniversary of the webs effective launch. The World Wide Web is still only in its infancy, its British inventor Tim Berners-Lee says "We would have had some sort of market share alongside services like AOL and Compuserve, but we would not have flattened the world." Cheers to that thought mate, you really changed the world.ShareThisMay 2, 2008 - 2:45 AM | Related Entries - Computing | Comments (0)

ALASKA HEATS UPWarming temperatures are already having an impact on the people, wildlife and landscape of Alaska. Click on the numbers on this map to see what's happening on the front lines of global warming.1. Barrow 2. Shismaref 3. Yukon River 4. Wasilla 5. Kenai Peninsula 6. McCall Glacier 7. FairbanksThe latest scientific data confirm that the earth's climate is rapidly changing. Global temperatures increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the course of the last century, and will likely rise even more rapidly in coming decades. The cause? A thickening layer of carbon dioxide pollution, mostly from power plants and automobiles, that traps heat in the atmosphere.Scientists say that unless global warming emissions are reduced, average U.S. temperatures could rise another 3 to 9 degrees by the end of the century -- with far-reaching effects. Sea levels will rise, flooding coastal areas. Heat waves will be more frequent and more intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more often. Disease-carrying mosquitoes will expand their range. And species will be pushed to extinction. As this page shows, many of these changes have already begun.

CLIMATE PATTERN CHANGESConsequence: warmer temperaturesAverage temperatures will rise, as will the frequency of heat waves.Warning signs todayMost of the United States has already warmed, in some areas by as much as 4 degrees Fahrenheit. In fact, no state in the lower 48 states experienced below average temperatures in 2002. The last three five-year periods are the three warmest on record.Many places in North America had their hottest seasons or days on record in the late 1990s.Since 1980, the earth has experienced 19 of its 20 hottest years on record, with 2005 and 1998 tied for the hottest and 2002 and 2003 coming in second and third.Consequence: drought and wildfireWarmer temperatures could also increase the probability of drought. Greater evaporation, particularly during summer and fall, could exacerbate drought conditions and increase the risk of wildfires.Warning signs todayGreater evaporation as a result of global warmingcould increase the risk of wildfires.The 1999-2002 national drought was one of the three most extensive droughts in the last 40 years.In 2002, the Western United States experienced its second worst wildfire season in the last 50 years; more than 7 million acres burned. Colorado, Arizona, and Oregon had their worst seasons.The period from April through June of 1998 was the driest three-month period in 104 years in Florida, Texas, and Louisiana.Dry conditions produced the worst wildfires in 50 years in Florida in 1998.April through July of 1999 was the driest four-month stretch in 105 years of record-keeping in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Rhode Island.Montana, Colorado, and Kansas experienced severe dust storms in 2002, a product of dry conditions.September 2001 to February 2002 was the second driest six-month period on record for the Northeast.Consequence: more intense rainstormsWarmer temperatures increase the energy of the climatic system and lead to more intense rainfall at some times and in some areas.Warning signs todayNational annual precipitation has increased between 5 and 10 percent since the early 20th century, largely the result of heavy downpours in some areas.Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts each got more than double their normal monthly rainfall in June 1998.Severe flooding in the Texas, Montana, and North Dakota during the summer of 2002 caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

HEALTH EFFECTSMore frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. Photo: Gary Braasch, Chicago, July 1995. See the World View of Global Warming website for more Gary Braasch photos illustrating the consequences of the changing climate.Consequence: deadly heat waves and the spread of diseaseMore frequent and more intensive heat waves could result in more heat-related deaths. These conditions could also aggravate local air quality problems, already afflicting more than 80 million Americans. Global warming is expected to increase the potential geographic range and virulence of tropical diseases as well.Warning signs todayIn 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1500 deaths in India.More than 250 people died as a result of an intense heat wave that gripped most of the eastern two-thirds of the United States in 1999.Disease-carrying mosquitoes are spreading as climate shifts allow them to survive in formerly inhospitable areas. Mosquitoes that can carry dengue fever viruses were previously limited to elevations of 3,300 feet but recently appeared at 7,200 feet in the Andes Mountains of Colombia. Malaria has been detected in new higher-elevation areas in Indonesia.

WARMING WATERConsequence: more powerful and dangerous hurricanesWarmer water in the oceans pumps more energy into tropical storms, making them more intense and potentially more destructive.Warning signs todayThe number of category 4 and 5 storms has greatly increased over the past 35 years, along with ocean temperature.Consequence: melting glaciers, early ice thawRising global temperatures will speed the melting of glaciers and ice caps, and cause early ice thaw on rivers and lakes.Warning signs todayAt the current rate of retreat, all of the glaciers in Glacier National Park will be gone by 2070.After existing for many millennia, the northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf in Antarctica -- a section larger than the state of Rhode Island -- collapsed between January and March 2002, disintegrating at a rate that astonished scientists. Since 1995 the ice shelf's area has shrunk by 40 percent.According to NASA, the polar ice cap is now melting at the alarming rate of nine percent per decade. Arctic ice thickness has decreased 40 percent since the 1960s.In 82 years of record-keeping, four of the five earliest thaws on Alaska's Tanana River were in the 1990s.The satellite photo at far left shows the Larson B ice shelf on Jan. 31, 2002. Ice appears as solid white. Moving to the right, in photos taken Feb. 17 and Feb. 23, the ice begins to disintegrate. In the photos at far right, taken Mar. 5 and Mar 7, note water (blue) where solid ice had been, and that a portion of the shelf is drifting away. Photos: National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationConsequence: sea-level riseCurrent rates of sea-level rise are expected to increase as a result both of thermal expansion of the oceans and of partial melting of mountain glaciers and the Antarctic and Greenland ice caps. Consequences include loss of coastal wetlands and barrier islands, and a greater risk of flooding in coastal communities. Low-lying areas, such as the coastal region along the Gulf of Mexico and estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay, are especially vulnerable.Warning signs todayThe current pace of sea-level rise is three times the historical rate and appears to be accelerating.Global sea level has already risen by four to eight inches in the past century. Scientists' best estimate is that sea level will rise by an additional 19 inches by 2100, and perhaps by as much as 37 inches.

ECOSYSTEM DISRUPTIONWarmer temperatures may cause some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, to disappear.Consequence: ecosystem shifts and species die-offThe increase in global temperatures is expected to disrupt ecosystems and result in loss of species diversity, as species that cannot adapt die off. The first comprehensive assessment of the extinction risk from global warming found that more than one million species could be committed to extinction by 2050 if global warming pollution is not curtailed. Some ecosystems, including alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains, as well as tropical montane and mangrove forests, are likely to disappear because new warmer local climates or coastal sea level rise will not support them.Warning signs todayA recent study published in the prestigious journal Nature found that at least 279 species of plants and animals are already responding to global warming. Species' geographic ranges have shifted toward the poles at an average rate of 4 miles per decade and their spring events have shifted earlier by an average of 2 days per decade.In Washington's Olympic Mountains, sub-alpine forest has invaded higher elevation alpine meadows. In Bermuda and other places, mangrove forests are being lost.In areas of California, shoreline sea life is shifting northward, probably in response to warmer ocean and air temperatures.Over the past 25 years, some penguin populations have shrunk by 33 percent in parts of Antarctica, due to declines in winter sea-ice habitat.Related NRDC WebpagesArctic on Thin IceGlobal Warming in the Arctic and AntarcticGlobal Warming Threatens FloridaBibliography of Climate StudiesRelated WebsitesIntergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeUnion of Concerned Scientists, California's Climate ChoicesNational Climatic Data CenterGlobal Warming: Early Warning Signs MapU.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Changelast revised 1.9.06