India Will Come To Regret Today's Annexation Of Jammu And Kashmir

The right-wing nationalist Hindutva government of India under Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi just revoked autonomy for Jammu and Kashmir. This will create a civil war that could easily evolve into new conflict between the nuclear armed India and Pakistan.

At the time of the British withdrawal from India, Maharaja Hari Singh, the ruler of the state, preferred to become independent and remain neutral between the successor dominions of India and Pakistan. However, an uprising in the western districts of the State followed by an attack by raiders from the neighbouring Northwest Frontier Province, supported by Pakistan, put an end to his plans for independence. On 26 October 1947, the Maharaja signed the Instrument of Accession joining the Dominion of India in return for military aid. The western and northern districts presently known as Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan passed to the control of Pakistan, while the remaining territory became the Indian state Jammu and Kashmir.

The Instrument of Accession signed by then-Maharaja Hari Singh of Kashmir in October 1947 specified only three subjects on which the state would transfer its powers to the Government of India: foreign affairs, defence and communications. In March 1948, the Maharaja appointed an interim government in the state, with Sheikh Abdullah as the prime minister. The interim government was also tasked with convening a constituent assembly for framing a constitution for the state. In the meantime, the Constituent Assembly of India was conducting its deliberations. In July 1949, Sheikh Abdullah and three colleagues joined the Indian Constituent Assembly and negotiated the special status of J&K, leading to the adoption of Article 370.

This article limited the Union’s legislative power over Kashmir to the three subjects in the Instrument of Accession. If the Union government wanted to extend other provisions of the Indian Constitution, it would have to issue a Presidential Order under Article 370. The state government would have to give prior concurrence to this order. Moreover, the constituent assembly of J&K would have to accept these provisions and incorporate them in the state’s constitution. Once Kashmir’s constitution was framed, there could be no further extension of the Union’s legislative power to the state. This secured J&K’s autonomy.

Incidentally, this was the reason for listing the provisions of Article 370 as “temporary” in the Indian Constitution: the final contours of the state’s constitutional relationship with the Union were to be determined by the constituent assembly of J&K.

Home Minister Amit Shah announced that the government has issued a notification in effect scrapping Article 370 from the Indian Constitution. Article 370 of the constitution is a ‘temporary provision’ granting special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir.

Furthermore, the government also ordered the division of Jammu and Kashmir into two Union Territories. While the Union Territory of Ladakh will be without a legislature, the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir will be with a legislature. “We have four bills on Kashmir. We are ready to discuss everything and give answers on everything,” Shah said, amid chaos in Rajya Sabha.

J&K is majority Muslim. It is of strategic importance as the headwaters of Pakistan's main water source, the Indus river system, are situated in J&K's mountains. Pakistani nationalist believe that it should be part of their state.

When the U.S. incited and supported Muslim extremists to attack the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the movement spilled over into Pakistan and J&K. During the 1980s and 90s a Muslim insurgency, supported by Muslim Pakistan, fought against Indian soldiers. Hindu inhabitants of J&K were pushed out. The 12.5 million inhabitants of J&K are since under Indian occupation. Between 500.000 and 700.000 Indian soldiers are stationed in the state. During the last decades the conflict largely ceased and there were recently not big incidents. Up to today Pakistan had no current interest to escalate the issue.

But the fascist Modi government, just recently reelected, needs to feed its radical Hindutva base. J&K's special status protected its inhabitants from overwhelming migration of Hindus from main India. Modi will now push his followers to move into the state. His aim in the end is to create a majority Hindu state in a currently majority Muslim one.

Last week India ordered all tourists to leave J&K. Since yesterday all communication lines to J&K are cut. Local leaders were put under house arrest and all schools and public institutions are closed. Thousand of troops were additionally send into J&K.

It is inevitable that the actions today will lead a new insurgency in J&K and beyond. Even if Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan does not want to support a new guerilla army in J&K, the military and other nationalist Pakistanis will push to supply it with everything that is needed.

1. [..] I feel reasonably comfortable making the following prediction: strictly seen from the perspective of maintaining the current territorial status quo in Kashmir, the Indian state will come to regret this decision within a decade. Even if it holds on to the state in its entirety, it just made its job a lot tougher and costlier. I also think it has opened up wiggle room -- diplomatically and legally -- that did not exist before.

2. Relatedly, I believe no institution is happier today than [Pakistan's Military General Headquarter]. No, not even the RSS or Times Now or Republic TV. Congrats to Modi and Amit Shah for doing more for Pakistan's position than anyone in Pindi could have hoped for. There's a dissertation and a half waiting to be written on popular right wing nationalism at home leading to dumb and overreaching shit abroad (I can think of some recent cases).

3. Anyone in Delhi or DC or on anywhere else who tries to pin this on any "external threat" should never be paid attention to again. Trust me, I'm more than aware of the times when Pakistan's behavior has been key to how India behaves in Kashmir, but this time ain't it.

Wikipedia claims: Bhaskar Sunkara (born June 20, 1989) is an American political writer. He is the founding editor and publisher of Jacobin and publisher of Catalyst: A Journal of Theory and Strategy[1] and Tribune.[2] He is a former vice-chair of the Democratic Socialists of America and the author of The Socialist Manifesto: The Case for Radical Politics in an Era of Extreme Inequality

Not a problem at all. The important part is the dialogue. Plus, it also has happened to me that I replied to a comment that had changed its number due to a reshuffle caused by the removal of some crap.

indeed, just in case anyone's forgotten, it's all but guaranteed that the age is coming when all of the ideologies, the intrigues of whatever political ethos, the distinctions of religious difference, the whatevers of every ist or ism, will reveal themselves to be completely inadequate, and even meaningless, as entire societies are confronted with their urgent and immediate physical survival.

@93 william gruff... thanks for that reminder... when i was in india in 1998, i noticed coca cola had bought up a lot of the water rights... according to coca cola, people can just buy the products off them, and all will be well... that is the world according to the corporate mindset... unfortunately india is very much into the corporate mindset as well...

Not a problem at all. The important part is the dialogue. Plus, it also has happened to me that I replied to a comment that had changed its number due to a reshuffle caused by the removal of some crap.

The initial South Asian Vedic civilization was forced to migrate do to the movement of plate tectonics which altered the course of the Sarasvati River. The region where that civilization once bloomed and grandly prospered is now the desert lands bisected by the Indian/Pakistani Border. Further movement of the Indian Plate combined with Climate Change will provoke another migration with tens of millions perishing as there's really no place for them to go given what the future holds. The shifting monsoon pattern has greatly benefitted Pakistan and enabled Imran Khan's tree planting plan to succeed as the first billion of the planned ten was accomplished last year. Pakistan has 5K glaciers most of which are retreating. By 2020, South Asia's population will be over 2 billion and is already the most densely populated region on the planet. This presents an overview of the challenges faced by India.

"[Bhaskar Sunkara] went on to study history at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., where he conceived the idea of Jacobin."

Hmm... George Washington University? Isn't that one of the primary places where the US State Department stores the individuals they want to use as colonial governors while their "color revolution" regime change operations are ongoing? Folks like Georgia's Mikheil Saakashvili and the Random Guaido from Venezuela? Why yes, it is!

Lots of State Department and CIA operators in one small place, which makes it easy to evaluate and indoctrinate potential assets. But I am sure there are a few normal students who go to George Washington University too. There must be.

Getting the idea for a pseudo-leftish online magazine while surrounded CIA operators and by people in training to be CIA assets isn't so strange, is it?

"The New York Times interviewed Sunkara in January 2013, commenting on Jacobin's unexpected success and engagement with mainstream liberalism."

The New York Langly Times offering a positive review of a supposed socialist publication and guiding readers there with praise of the publication's liberalism should be a bit of a hint, but what else do we know about it from the Wikipedia article?

"Sunkara writes for Vice magazine, The New York Times, Washington Post and The Nation, among other outlets."

All pretty well established as major participants in "Operation Mockingbird".

The article says he is the publisher of Tribune, and that Wikipedia article mentions that "From 2009 to 2018, [Tribune] faced serious financial difficulties until it was purchased by Jacobin Publisher Bhaskar Sunkara in early 2018."

Some guy is making enough money off of a "socialist" online magazine to go about financially rescuing other publications at the tender age of 29? Sure, that's believable... isn't it?

Yes, GWU is a paradox, perhaps as it should be. It's the home of the indispensable National Security Archive, which publishes some very excellent compilations. In light of the "No Enrichment" policy line secretly established in 1958 that guides Outlaw US Empire enmity toward Iran, NSA has just published: U.S. Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy, 1954-1968: From Atoms for Peace to the NPT. Many of the documents in the collection would usually be found in Foreign Relations of the United States except their classified nature kept them from inclusion. One can see how the adoption of the No Enrichment policy evolved upon reading this:

"•A State Department memorandum from 1955 recounting a statement by an Atomic Energy Commission official that the U.S. Atoms for Peace program paradoxically would involve a 'threat to peace' because of the 'expanded knowledge of nuclear power reactors and plutonium separation.'"

There has been insurgency in Kashmir for the last 70 years instigated and promoted by Pakistan. It is a fact that Raja Hari Singh acceded Kashmir to India by the common Instument of Accession as more than 700 Rajas and Nawabs. Things got protracted and seeds of confusion were sown due to the ambiguous nature of Art. 370. With its removal from this point forward things will take a turn for better for all the citizens of India who reside in the states of Jammu , Kashmir and Ladakh. You are mistaken when you say that India is occupying Jammu and Kashmir, the state is an integral part of India. This has been made more clear by the removal of Art 370. I had earlier made a comment regarding your free use of the word fascism so I will not repeat it.
Regarding Hinduism it is amongst the oldest Religions in this world. I invite you to study it in your free time.
'Vasudev Kutumbakam' meaning the whole world is your family.

"I salute my sisters and brothers of Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh for their courage and resilience. For years, vested interest groups who believed in emotional blackmail never cared for people’s empowerment. J&K is now free from their shackles. A new dawn, better tomorrow awaits!"

Few thread commentators expect Pakistan to do anything, although this segment points to the likely troubles ahead as this retort presages:

"Shiekh Abdullah also said that no military power will ever be able to dominate over people of Kashmir but you couldn’t spot that. Present descendants of Shiekh are admitting that decision to go with India was a blunder. You missed that too."

It's quite possible Modi and Parliament did this because they couldn't win the mandated plebiscite in shades of US behavior in Korea and Vietnam.

1) " It is of strategic importance as the headwaters of Pakistan's main water source, the Indus river system, are situated in J&K's mountains." -B

With this region's importance to Pakistan's water supply, why didn't Pakistan take steps to secure it/improve relations with India before now? Major oops.

2) China and India are dominated by ethnic/religious clubs dressed up in modern statehood garb.

3) Ok, so what happens next? As B states, Pakistan will support an insurgency. India will link Iran to Pakistan (easy to do) to gain the US's support. Feeling the heat from this new pressure point to its East, Iran/Pakistan will turn to Russia and China.

What would the US Empire do if India and China started to puff chests and worse? Idk. I say probably India. Certainly with with whoever looks most likely to advance their interest of either dominating Eurasia or making sure no one else can.

My Virgo aspects demand I rewrite the final thought @ 115. My bad, I'll use the preview. Here it is:

Who would the US Empire support if India and China started to puff chests and worse? Idk. Probably India. Certainly with whoever looks mostly likely to advance the Empire's interest of either dominating Eurasia or making sure no one else can.

I learned a lot about this terrible period of India/Pakistan history, of which I knew virtually nothing, from reading William Dalrymple's City of Djinns: A Year in Delhi. It was an eye opener.

That is, one reads about "ethnic tensions" leading to the separation of Pakistan from India, but what this really meant---I had no picture of this on the ground, so to speak. Because I knew nothing about India. What the Hindus did to Muslim populations in their cities, such as Delhi, is unspeakable. I thought Hindus were supposed to be "spiritual" and "otherworldly." Uh, no.

I have read a number of Dalrymple's books and I find him to be a very good intro to India and the history and culture of the subcontinent generally. He has done a lot of original research in Indian and other archives that have not otherwise been studied.

I venture to suggest that PCR meant, attractive to a large swath of the population/voters. . It only means that for a number of reasons he was attractive as a candidate. And that is a true statement. He won. It says nothing about what he has done since--nor how "attractive" he will appear in 2020.

You are on point on most points, except the Indus Valley civilization you refer to was most certainly not Vedic/Hindu. The latest working theory is that it was composed of east Iranian migrants who bred with aboriginal Indians (I.e. people like present day Andamanese) over thousands of years in the area that is now Pakistan.

The Aryan invasion following the decline of Indus Valley people around 1800 BC is what gave rise to Hindu religion and it's people. The fair skinned Hindu North Indians today still call themselves Brahmins/the highest upper castes, which defines the essence of its racist underpinnings.

@ O and james who write that Trump did not coerce the Fed into anything......I agree because they are on the same team producing kabuki for public manipulation

I am surprised at james response as it seems inconsistent with other comments he has made.

I continue to roll my eyes at folks that cannot believe that Trump and those the run the US Fed are not playing on the same team against the rest of the world. There is ONLY one empire, not two. Previous people that have tilted agains empire from within have been murdered as would Trump if he wasn't in on the game. This is not about America folks, this is about centuries old GLOBAL private finance that operates above any national boundaries.

@120 psychohistorian.. okay - ya got me! do you remember me saying anything about the federal reserve? after reading creature from jekyll island many years ago, i probably have a more interesting perspective then some here... i used to trade options and futures too, which is also not something that many here have probably done.. i have a particular view on the federal reserve, so i am curious about the inconsistencies you are picking up on!

Modi benefited tremendously from the fallout from a suicide attack in Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 40 Indian soldiers in February 2019. Although responsibility for the attack was claimed by a Pakistani terrorist group, it was carried out by a local Kashmiri. One reading of this could have been that Modi’s policies in the Kashmir valley, such as the increase in the use of pellet guns, blinding hundreds and killing at least 14, had led to the attack. But Modi swiftly turned it to his advantage.

Not only did he pursue an aggressive course of action with airstrikes against militants on Pakistani territory, he also successfully sold it as a huge success, despite some evidence that the fighters had missed their target. The national security narrative took centre stage in the 2019 election, something that the opposition parties were unable to counter.

This is what we call "dog whistle politics" in Australia. It was a tactic frequently used by the Howard government in the early 2000s.

I believe past Israeli administrations (under Ariel Sharon when he was Prime Minister) used similar scare tactics by encouraging lone Palestinian suicide bombers, persuaded by offers of cash payments from the IDF, to evade border checkpoints (sometimes left deliberately unguarded?) and go deep into Israel and enter public areas in cities where people congregated in big numbers.

Occupation is not a path forward. India also seems to have removed their political Kashmir proxies for whatever reason.

To do this in this haste in the tourist and holiday season presumably was sparked by Trump offering to mediate and by the US coming to an agreement with the Taliban with the involvement of Pakistan but not the Afghan government or India.

Despite being a key contributor to rebuilding Afghanistan, India was elbowed out from the four-party meeting held in Beijing in July to advance the Afghan peace process. Earlier talks with the Taliban in Doha and Moscow already hinted at the sidelining of New Delhi from future peacebuilding efforts as a quadrilateral consultation group between the United States, China, Pakistan and Russia was announced without the inclusion of India. Pakistan, which stands accused by Washington of harboring terrorist groups, is now invited to play an important role in facilitating peace in Afghanistan.

India needs an agreement with Iran, Pakistan, China and Kashmir to make that TAPI pipeline operational. Aligning with the US and Israel will not work.

ll things taken into consideration, therefore, the Taliban statement on Kashmir portends trouble ahead. The Taliban is notorious for doublespeak and when it says there is no link between the Kashmir issue and the Afghan settlement, the opposite must be taken into account as well.

The Taliban seems to be conveying a convoluted message to the Indian security establishment that we shouldn’t impede any further its triumphant march to power in Kabul in the fateful weeks ahead, even as an interim government gets formed and it gains the decisive upper hand on the political chessboard as by far the best organised Afghan group.

This implicit warning — that it is up to the Indian establishment to link Kashmir (Pakistan) and Afghanistan — must be heeded. India really is not a participant in Afghanistan’s fratricidal strife — it never was and never should have been

Here is an excellent essay about the background of the status quo in India. To understand the current situation, one must incorporate a lot more than the political superficiality that the Indian and Pakistani regimes display in their hatred for each other.

Well someone said something about Kashmir that is not all pro-Indian however not very surprised at all to note the simplistic explanation of how the accession was signed without the slightest hint to the conspiracy that was enacted by the Hindu and the British. Oh how the world has been oblivious to the fact annexation of Kashmir at any cost was all planned even before the partition of India was announced by the British Government on June 3, 1947. What the world is about to witness sooner or later is how the Hindu Zionists, the Caste-Hindu will now move on to create a Palestine in the sub-continent. I have said this for long, Israel and India are Brothers in Arms. The Zionist psyche is not limited to so-called Jews but extends further to the ancient king-makers of India, essentially the Caste-Hindu. Is there a difference in the their philosophy or policies? No. Moon of Alabama would do well by educating herself a little more on subjects that are far from her geographical location and see past only that which seemingly poses a threat to White Western civilization and also get facts upon the plight of those who are owed more than an apology from the White West. For anyone interested in the version of history little known:https://wannaknowthetruthblog.wordpress.com/2018/07/02/691/#more-691

US needs India to maintain a favourable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. But India’s approach towards Afghanistan has, from the very beginning, been too dependent on the benevolence of others. New Delhi continued to insist that it wants to invest only its soft power in Afghanistan but the fact that it succeeded was due to the American security umbrella.

Imran Khan is right, but should have continued with his comparison with Hitler's Lebensraum.... by adding the Zionist claim of racial supremacy and the associated right to expand Lebensraum for Jews in occupied Palestine.

Now we know where the assorted Jihadists in Idlib will go after being removed: Straight to Istanbul then onto one of the many flights to Islamabad. Erdogan will be glad to get rid of them and they will be bused on to the Kashmiri border. No more white helmets or screaming from Western media or kindly buses from President Assad in this war zone. Just a few hundred thousand Indian soldiers.

The Modi government will be creating a long-term, intractable problem for India for generations to come by adopting such an ostrich approach. Analysts have pointed out (here and here) that the change in Ladakh’s status makes India-China border dispute incredibly complicated and all but unsolvable. India’s international standing can get seriously damaged.

I find this article rather biased towards the Pakistan point of view. That Kashmir Hindus were driven out of their homes is a fact. Where is the justification for that? Kashmir has always been an springboard for Pakistan’s mischief. Pakistan has co tongued to antagonize Indians through Kashmir and supporting unsavory elements there with money, political support and arms-everyone knows this. It’s time India put a STOP to it. Will India pay a price ? Well yes. Every good step involves some sacrifice but the benefit and peace obtained in the years to come overshadows the minor conflict to be faced.

No, Pakistan will not go nuclear for Kashmir. Enough for this war mongering gibberish. It won’t risk its existence over a piece of land it never owned in the first place. They might go nuclear over Balochistan which by the way is trying to break free of Pakistan. So it would be nice for Pakistan to pay heed to its own turf and stop this Muslim defense nonsense. Balochis are Muslim as well..tix your home.

What then? Well now India has to keep its promise and treat Kashmiris like full citizens and give them access to what the country has to offer like everybody else.