Balliol The Best Bath Bet

June 12, 2015

Our first bet on today’s card at bath comes in the opening Lewis Chisholm Stag 2015 Maiden Stakes, a five furlong event for three-year-olds. In all honesty this looks a terribly weak contest. Those to have experienced the racecourse have shown very little of note. The two most experienced runners are Margot Rose and Zuzinia. Margot Rose is now a 17 race maiden and Zuzinia is not far behind having failed to win in his 16 attempts to date. That gives an idea of the standard we are looking at. The one to have shown some improvement of late is the Bill Turner trained Our Lord who stepped up on his debut effort to run creditably at Lingfield last time out. The trainer stats for this one are far from encouraging however. Turner’s last 36 runners in three-year-old maiden contests have all been beaten. Charlie Appleby on the other hand boasts a respectable 23% strike rate in such contests and this race looks at the mercy of his debutant, Balliol. Jockey Kevin Stott takes off a useful three pounds and has a 31% strike rate in three-year-old races when riding for Appleby. Hailing from the powerful Godolphin ownership, Balliol will in all likelihood need to be no more than average to win this and looks to take all the beating.

Race two on the card is also a 5f Maiden Contest. The Wyvern Ices/Ebf Maiden Fillies’ Stakes for two-year-old fillies looks a far better affair than the opener. The Richard Hannon pair of Fit and Stroke Of Midnight both look interesting here. Being by Kodiac and Dark Angel respectively, the pair boast strong speed influences in their pedigree. Stroke Of Midnight took a big step forward on what was only her second start last time out and may continue her progression here. Fit didn’t show all that much on her debut but should strip fitter here with that experience under her belt. We would expect these two to be in the shake-up in the final furlong but both may have to play second fiddle to our selection for this race. Bath can be something of a specialists track due to the almost permanent very firm ground. Some horses simply don’t handle it. When betting at this track we like to be sure our selection goes on the surface. In a Maiden contest where the whole field has only a handful of runs between them, that is easier said than done. There is one having her second start here having made her debut at the track last week. Roger Charlton’s Eglantyne Dream had no chance of winning on debut after dawdling at that start. We can forgive her that though and once the penny dropped she ran on in eye catching style to finish third. She will know more here and could prove tough to beat. This one also boasts plenty of speed in her pedigree, being by Oasis Dream out of a Storm Cat mare. Roger Charlton’s horses are running above average at present and he can notch a victory here.