[QUOTE=Meshadow;1155766]I heard on a local radio station that the moderate military officers in North Korea have been replaced or are in jail and have been replaced by hard liners. I don't know how true that is but if it this could be more alarming then the obvious. [QUOTE]

I mean...what exactly would a "moderate military officer" of NK be? Do they have those over there?

[QUOTE=Forgetthisname;1157091][QUOTE=Meshadow;1155766]I heard on a local radio station that the moderate military officers in North Korea have been replaced or are in jail and have been replaced by hard liners. I don't know how true that is but if it this could be more alarming then the obvious.

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I mean...what exactly would a "moderate military officer" of NK be? Do they have those over there?

You got me??? It seems to suggest there were some officers who wanted to see things change for the best i.e., reunification with the south, the world; whatever.
Given the history of NK that seems contradictory at best.

Seoul is in artillery range, I don't think we can shoot shells down just yet.

Missile barrage would garuntee something got through? How many short range missiles does he have? what would we or the south do if he suddenly put 50 missiles on the pad? Nothing, is my guess.

Add commandoes, and a large hungry army/population; so yes, Seoul is at risk.

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Originally Posted by Colonel Flagg

Is Seoul REALLY at SERIOUS risk of being leveled?

I know this is a REALLY rough analogy, but wouldn't that be a bit like Tony Soprano trying to whack the local FBI SAIC/office?

Wouldn't the endstate be the same?

Isn't a crude nuclear capability for North Korea a bit like Tony Soprano having some immunity from prosecution?

On one hand, I could see some serious concern about North Korea's leadership stability putting lots of very serious people on notice to intervene if required.

On the other hand, I could see this being a VERY bold/shrewd example from the North Korean standpoint in taking advantage of the economic devastation affecting the related nations to maximize the potential gain for North Korea.

I'm not a regional expert, but could this recent series of events be just another form of unconventional negotiations?

Does North Korea not possess MORE leverage now than what they will likely have in 5 or 10 years when we see the backend of this economic mess?

So doesn't it make sense from their perspective to leverage their ability to throw stone at our temporarily glass houses?

It feels a bit like that scene in Blazing Saddles when the black guy threatens to shoot himself....except less funny.

US warns NKorea its nuke test put it on wrong path
AP
By JAE-SOON CHANG, Associated Press Writer Jae-soon Chang, Associated Press Writer – 1 hr 15 mins ago
SEOUL, South Korea – A senior American diplomat warned Wednesday that North Korea's nuclear test, barrage of short-range missiles and preparations for a long-range missile launch have put the regime on the wrong path and urged Pyongyang to return to disarmament talks...
...North Korea must "reverse its course on its nuclear program and then return to the path of denuclearization that we have agreed on," he said at the start of talks with South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Kwon Jong-rak.

The envoys' trip to Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing comes amid heightened tensions over North Korea's underground nuclear test last Monday and reportsthe regime is preparing to test-fire a long-range missile as well as an array of medium-range missiles. Assembly is believed to have begun on an intercontinental ballistic missile — one capable of striking the U.S.
— that was transported by train to the Dongchang-ni launch site near North Korea's northwest coast, South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said, citing an unnamed government official.

The missile remains covered but appears longer than the Taepodong-2 long-range rocket North Korea fired on April 5, the official told the newspaper.

A U.S. military official has said it could be more than a week before liftoff. He spoke on condition of anonymity because it was an intelligence-related issue...

I suspect that Kim Il knows his sad, pointless little life is over and wants to make his mark on the world in his ugly little image.

Actually closer to the other way around. NK's military is huge, dwarfing SK by a large margin.

The safety net is us and our presence there.

I can see how North Korea dwarfs South Korea militarily man for man.......but qualitatively in terms of late generation operational weapon systems, vastly larger and more effective training budgets, and the motivation of holding the moral highground leaves me thinking that the US presence in South Korea is partially redundant since the SK military seems more than capable of looking after itself....barring a smaller "tripwire" presence guaranteeing a US response in the event of an attack.

NK agents have been infiltrating SK's universities for decades, rousing anti-American "occupation" attempting to gain support for US removal from the region.

I'm aware of EXTREMELY intensive infiltration of NK agents across the entire spectrum in SK(and vice versa at times in the past).......has this not changed in the past decade?

I may be under the mistaken impression that the extremely aggressive infiltration of NK combatants into SK and elsewhere like:

*Blue House Raid
*Assasination attempt on President Park, killing his wife
*Assasination attempt on President in Burma
*Bombing of KAL 858

And of course USS Pueblo & "Axe Murder Incident" have curtailed.

ALL of these incidents, to me, represent acts of war against South Korea and/or the US. And must remain top of mind.

But open source wise it seems to have quieted off in the past decade...with the biggest incident I'm aware of(other than the nuke shenanigans) involving the NK drug ship Pong Su.

To me the North Koreans are still a pack of world-leading A-holes.....but could their open source actions be perceived as a shift in focus from naked war-seeking aggression to naked acts of organized crime and self-preservation?

NK had very little to loose with an invasion of SK and everything to gain.

I'm not sure I agree......I do worry about an early 80's like possibility of war along the lines of a near death Andropov/near death Kim......but I wonder if acts of desperate self-preservation could be given too little weight along the lines of underestimating the Soviet Union tanking a few decades ago.

I don't believe the nukes to be a conventional option for NK, more probable an asymetrical approch (terrorsim, etc..) on the US or any other nation that they precieve as a threat.

While I'm no area or delivery system expert....I'd agree completely.....I think the likely early generation crudeness of their nukes combined with their LONG track record of unconventional warfare efforts would pose a serious threat if gross stupidity reigns in NK.

China is the wild card, though I suspect they would rather watch the fireworks and reap the benifits of a major economic tax on the waring nations. What exactly would be their gain from interceeding with NK's affairs?

I would agree that it is in China's best interest to stoke the fires of diplomatic failure/humiliation/cost for US/SK/Japan. But I think it would be an opportunity for China to test it's political/military/economic horsepower to extend it's sphere of influence in the region.

My guess is that China is not interested in a hot conflict as it would likely have considerable border issues, would be under greater pressure to intercede from the global community and would also suffer direct/indirect costs of the ecominc fallout from it's trading partners.

I don't think China could gag a call for active intervention from the global community like they appear to have done in Sri Lanka/Zimbabwe

Japan may be our biggest support. They have a massive navy, something that would definatly come into play in the event of raised hostilities.

NK has no viable long term statigy for extended warfare, they would have to make a blitzcrieg push into SK and commendeer their resources. They have no real economy for such an action otherwise, unless supported by someone else (China?).

Yeah, no matter how I look at it, I just don't see a total war against SK having ANY chance of success...it just looks like suicide.....

Never-the-less, NK is not by any means an easy target. There are a lot of factors that make them a very worthy foe.

I can see why everyone appears to have been passing the hot potato of NK from administration to administration....seems like a choice between a big poo sandwich and an even bigger poo sandwich in the long-term.

__________________
The "Best Tactics" to use are the ones which allow you to shoot the other guy before he shoots you. Whether your pinky is fully extended or not is a matter of aesthetics, not tactics.

An old Gunny of mine once said that NK has enough arty trained on the DMZ to place 1 shell on every square foot of the border.

Don't know how accurate that info is, but its scary as shit.

It's estimated that there are close to 6000 artillery tubes dug in, all zeroed in with prearranged targets in Seoul and the surrounding area.

The way it's been presented in the past, some general in the NK capital in essence pulls the trigger, and those guns can put something on the order of about 300,000 shells on target within the first hour of any shooting war.

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"This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let's not bicker and argue over who killed who!"

It's estimated that there are close to 6000 artillery tubes dug in, all zeroed in with prearranged targets in Seoul and the surrounding area.

The way it's been presented in the past, some general in the NK capital in essence pulls the trigger, and those guns can put something on the order of about 300,000 shells on target within the first hour of any shooting war.

I wonder if that assumes no immediate countermeasures, covert or otherwise. It's hard to imagine we as well as the ROK's would not plan strategically and tactically for such a scenerio.

Meh, South Korean and Japanese problem. Let them deal with it/pay for it.

Stop sending NK any aid whatsoever(which we never ever should have done in the 1st place), starve them out. S/F.....Ken M

__________________"If you remember nothing else about what Iím about to consider here, remember this: the one and only reason politicians, bureaucrats, and policemen want to take your weapons away from you is so that they can do things to you that they couldnít do if you still had your weapons."ó L. Neil Smith

We can shoot down shells, research C-RAM. But that doesn't matter, as we're not South Korean and the US finally moved their troops(hostages really) away from the DMZ a few years ago. We should keep going, to Okinawa at the very least, Guam or Australia is better still.

Hungry nutjobs are destabilizing, but since they're not going to swim the Pacific anytime soon, I vote for not giving a shit.

Let them try to get charity food from the SK, Chinese or Japanese. S/F.....Ken M

__________________"If you remember nothing else about what Iím about to consider here, remember this: the one and only reason politicians, bureaucrats, and policemen want to take your weapons away from you is so that they can do things to you that they couldnít do if you still had your weapons."ó L. Neil Smith