'Pacifist' Japan Launches "No Guts But All The War Spending Glory" Military Plan

We warned last week of the rising nationalism and concerns about Abe's intentions and this evening the escalating tensions in the East China Sea are clear once again. In an effort to "normalize" an officially 'pacifist' policy, a hawkish Abe announced that Japan has tonight increased its military budget notably to buy drones, amphibious vehicles, submarines, and vertical take-off aircraft to boost defenses around the remote Senkaku islands. It seems the farce is getting more surreal as Japan also considers obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles the point of launch. Why go to war and risk it all by printing and deficit spending your country into oblivion for a 'purpose' when you can do it without spilling a drop of blood?

Via AFP,

Japan said Tuesday it intends to boost military spending by five percent over the next five years, with a hardware splurge intended to beef up defence of far-flung territories amid a corrosive row with China.

The cabinet of hawkish Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed 24.7 trillion yen ($240 billion) would be spent between 2014 and 2019, including on drones, submarines, fighter jets and amphibious vehicles, in a strategic shift towards the south and west.

The shopping list is part of efforts by Abe to normalise the military in Japan, which has been officially pacifist since defeat in World War II. Its well-equipped and highly professional services are limited to a narrowly defined self-defensive role.

...

New defence guidelines approved by the cabinet on Tuesday said Tokyo will introduce a "dynamic joint defence force," intended to help air, land and sea forces work together more effectively in the face of danger.

"China ... is taking dangerous action that can draw unexpected contingencies," said the guidelines.

Via Bloomberg,

...

The government will also consider obtaining the means to counter ballistic missiles at the point of launch, according to new security plans which set a total five-year budget of 24.67 trillion yen ($239 billion), up about 1 trillion yen on the previous five-year plan.

Japan will set up a marines-style force to deal with any island incursions, equipping it with 17 tiltrotor aircraft and 52 amphibious vehicles, as well as three surveillance drones, according to documents given to reporters in advance.

The right to know has now been officially superseded by the right of the government to make sure you don’t know what they don’t want you to know. It might all seems like a bad joke, except for the Orwellian nature of the bill and a key Cabinet member expressing his admiration for the Nazis, "just as Germany needed a strong man like Hitler to revive defeated Germany, Japan needs people like Abe to dynamically induce change."

We are sure the world (and the BoJ) will be more than happy to fund this latest Keynesian black hole.

the coming war will be unlike any other. Only a fool would ignore the concepts of 4GW and 5GW which have been so much discussed elsewhere. Total war has been redefined to include Tech, hacking, drones, insurgencies, and of course Financial war and propaganda. It will be unlike anything you have ever seen or read about; it will be a first for the world.

In a modern total World War soldiers on the battlefield with rifles are nearly irrelevant. they will be lost in their millions but it will be due to hacked weapons and abandonment, lack of supply et cetera.

All the great Japanese warriors from the samurai to the guys in WW2 killed themselves and removed themselves from the gene pool. What is left of the Japanese soldier today is a far cry from what once was.

If I were China I would not bet that they can beat the Japanese Defense Forces. They are very well respected by the militaries they have been training with over the last 70 years. The ANZACs, the US, Canada. Pound for Pound they are quite capable of whipping the Chi-Coms in a conventional regional conflict all by themselves. This all has shades of the Russo-Japan war of 1904.

The S.Koreans and the Taiwanese have been visiting regularly with the Japanese on the topic of what to do if Obama decides to cut them loose (which he would certainly do). Even the Aussies are quite sympatico with helping their little asian compadres if it comes down to that.

What is most important is, China is aware of these factors and will not start a fight with any of these "Skoshi-Tigers".

China is not sacrificing of rigorous commerce for foolish war. Wait for crash of Yuan and dissent of citizenry and THEN is create nationalism charge and start fight. Creature Comfort, not Religion, is opiate of masses.

I thought it was 'bombing the brown man'. I mean, that's all I ever heard when Bush/Cheney were in office. Then those two white racists Obama/Biden took over and started droning the hell out of every brown man they could find -

I'm not picking sides but Japan has one of the best trained navy and air forces in the world. They are tech geeks and practice, practice, practice. They would eventually be overwhelmed, but they are not a dog without a bite.

There are plenty of countries that want a piece of China. Not sure they wouldn't jump in if Japan ad their attention.

Had a vietnamese baby sitter a few years ago. Noone in that region trusts China. 80mil Viet, 130 mil Japan, 130 mil S Kor, starts to add up to some real numbers. I smell a war a comin'. Plus, all those little countries have previously handed the dragon it's ass. Should be exciting to watch from across the pacific.

China’s December 15th soft-landing of an unmanned spacecraft on the moon was celebrated by the Xinhua news agency as, “The dream for lunar exploration once again lights up the China Dream”. China’s neighbors saw the action as a nightmare demonstration of China’s ability to launch a Multiple Reentry Vehicle ballistic missile, whose payload can deploy multiple nuclear warheads aimed to hit a group of targets. With the United States becoming a less reliable guarantor of peace in the region, China’s provocative military moves are creating a muscular arms race in Asia.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace published a major report last May arguing China would be a “coercive power” in enforcement of its way with Japan, but emphasized that economic interdependence with the United States and the rest of Asia would prevent a major Cold-War style confrontation with China in the region. Carnegie claimed that despite hawkish rhetoric from Japan’s new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan’s economic troubles and political paralysis would prevent it from countering China’s increasing military capabilities. Carnegie obviously failed to consider Japan’s last two decades of increasing militarization. When it comes to intimidation, Japan and an increasing number of Asian nations will aggressively confront China.

As I reported on December 3rd in “Energy Drives Asian Military Confrontation”, China and other Asian export economies are at risk of losing tens of millions of manufacturing jobs due to America’s huge advantage in energy cost from fracking more than offsetting Asia’s traditional labor cost advantage. China announced last month that they would begin enforcing an expanded off-shore Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) as sovereign territory that would capture the disputed oil rich Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and overlap Japan’s, South Korea, Taiwan’s, Philippines and Vietnam’s current ADIZs. Since November 29th, the Japanese have sent daily flights of F-15s, E-767s and P-3s to challenge the provocatively challenge the People’s Liberation Army Air Force Su-30 and J-11 warplanes in a high tech game of chicken.

Japan is a country with almost a complete lack of natural resources and must have secure regional sea-lanes to feed its export industry. Japan imports for 82% percent of its energy supply. Japan depends on the Middle East and Southeast Asia for more than 90% of its oil and natural gas imports, leaving it vulnerable to both regions’ political instability. Japan’s dependency on imports also extends to raw materials, such as copper and zinc.

The two nations have historically been bitter rivals and China's rise as a great power was bound to ignite military competition with Japan. Imperial China forced Japan to pay tribute for a thousand years beginning in the 5th century. But as part of Japan’s rise in the 19th Century, they invaded the Korean Peninsula several times and committed gruesome atrocities during their World War II invasion of China. The Japanese Constitution forbids maintaining a military except for self-defense purposes. But the Abe Administration is seeking to amend the constitution to allow offensive operations and military planners in Tokyo have been ignoring the prohibitive language for decades. The "active pacifism" proclaimed by the ruling Liberal Democrats party amounts to a global declaration of full military normalization.

Japan already has approximately four times as many major warships as the British Navy and more tanks than Germany. Despite being an island nation that emphasizes sea and air power, Japan has trained special-forces, a fleet of sophisticated diesel-electric submarines and is working with the U.S. Marines on amphibious capabilities.

To supposedly counter North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile programs, Tokyo deployed a $12 billion missile defense system that includes land-based Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors and SM-3 equipped-Aegis destroyers on mainland Japan, Okinawa and island bases in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. But Japan’s military focus is being capable of effectively confronting China over the sovereignty of the Senkaku Islands (called Diaoyu in China) and its huge off-shore oil reserves.

The United States provided the stabilizing force in Asia for sixty years, but nations in the region are acutely aware that American military power may not be as reliable a force in the future. Recognizing that China’s rapid development of ballistic missiles, warships, submarines and advanced fighter jets concentrated along its Pacific coastline is intended to overwhelm America’s regional naval dominance, the U.S. agreed to a $4.7 billion contract to sell Tokyo its Lockheed-Martin's F-35 Lightning II next-generation jet fighter. The Japanese firms will participate in building the jets and gain access to some of America’s top secret stealth technologies. The goal is to strengthen the Japanese air force as a buffer against China’s territorial expansion.

Most nations in Asia have opposed a renewal of Japanese nationalism and a military build-up as an existential threat. But the moon landing and threats to free passage through international waters are being seen as intentional demonstrations of “coercive power” by China. South Korea, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are rapidly militarizing to defend their economic interests and considering aligning with the Japanese to form a united regional force to confront China’s ambitions.

Is it just me or is anyone else here absolutely perplexed that the Japanese leadership look at the same Japanese citizens we're seeing - the gentle, quiet, Hello-Kitty, tech-obsessed, hard working, stay out of our business population - and say to themselves, "Yeah, these guys will be all for total war with China." ?

Your view of these people is based upon less than a generation of observation. They think of themselves in terms of millenia. They are happy warriors; at school, at work, at play, and especially at war. Even their cartoon characters shoot raygun blasts from their eyes and other bodyparts.

It would be preferable to keep them occupied with making whale based snacks, cars, motorcycles, and computers & stuff. You don't want them on the Asian Continent kicking the ever loving crap out of Russia, China, North Korea....

They may not be able to shut if off again short of a mushroom cloud. Which would of course complete the circle.

Dont be fooled. War is in the genes. Japan has terrorized its neighbor for centuries. That is why both China nd Korea hated their guts. The infamous ten thousands ear mount refer to the incidence when invading Japanese but off the ear of their Korean victims and created a mount out of them. In the 14th centuroes. Chinas Ming dynasty collapsed mostly from military expenses they spent oin trying to help the Korean defend against the Japanese. At one point in time, Japan raid Korea and brought home tens of thousands of their most beautiful women. in fact, it is widely know the Japanese emporer's mpther is a korean but hte Japanese try to not talk about it.

And China is now bringing money home, hence Yuan appreciation and inflows + Australia about to get a credit negative downgrade = China imports are closing up shop. Also Japan's exports now crunching lower. Money printing, repatriation, debt to fund war machines all leads to war.