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Friday, December 9, 2016

Background that is important in light of Donald Trump's stance on Iran, as well as that of Lt. General Flynn, Trump's choice for National Security Advisor and appointment of General Mattis as Secretary of Defense.

One of Official Washington’s favorite “group thinks” is to insist that Iran is the “chief sponsor of terrorism,” but the reality is that Saudi Arabia is much guiltier and U.S. officials know it, says Robert Parry.…

Parry shows that it is impossible for anyone in the deep state or the military not to know that Saudi Arabia is the chief state sponsor of terrorism and not Iran. Iran is opposed by Israel and the Wahhabi-Salafi Sunni states, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Is Donald Trump either misinformed, or carrying water for Israel? But if that is so, why would he be backing off replacing Assad in Syria, which IsraelI officials have stated as the number one goal?

Are the generals are also misinformed (which is highly unlikely), backing Israel also, or just uttering a shibboleth as a secret handshake to be admitted to the game.

Some of President-elect Trump’s national security appointees are part of Official Washington’s “we-hate-Iran” group think, raising concerns about another Mideast war, notes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

That the emails in the Wikileaks archive were doctored or faked – and thus should be disregarded – was classic Fake News, spread not by Macedonian teenagers or Kremlin operatives but by established news outlets such as MSNBC, the Atlantic and Newsweek. And, by design, this Fake News spread like wildfire all over the internet, hungrily clicked and shared by tens of thousands of people eager to believe it was true. As a result of this deliberate disinformation campaign, anyone reporting on the contents of the emails was instantly met with claims that the documents in the archive had been proven fake....

I will be shocked if any of them now acknowledge this even with [Marco] Chacon’s confession [see link below]. That’s because MSNBC has repeatedly proven that it tolerates Fake News and outright lies from its personalities as long as those lies are in service of the right candidate (when Democrats were smearing Jill Stein as a Kremlin stooge, Reid’s program aired Nance’s lie to MSNBC viewers that Stein had previously hosted her own show on RT: an utter fabrication that MSNBC, to this day, has never corrected or even acknowledged despite multiple requests from FAIR).

Every day, literally, you can turn on MSNBC and hear various people so righteously lamenting the spread of “Fake News.” Yet MSNBC itself not only spreads Fake News but refuses to correct it when it is exposed. How do they have any credibility to denounce Fake News? They do not....

But the problem here goes way beyond mere hypocrisy. Complaints about Fake News are typically accompanied by calls for “solutions” that involve censorship and suppression, either by the government or tech giants such as Facebook. But until there is a clear definition of “Fake News,” and until it’s recognized that Fake News is being aggressively spread by the very people most loudly complaining about it, the dangers posed by these solutions will be at least as great as the problem itself.

I would elaborate on "dark future" as a dialectical clash of incompatible ideologies that is headed toward conflict to determine which will prevail in the liberal world. As social conflict rises, authoritarian "solutions" tend to rise also. The consequence is that in overreacting to the prospect of growing socialism, liberalism tends toward imposition of fascism to protect itself.

But to gain wide acceptance, extrapolative expectations will have to overcome years of entrenched convention in the economics profession. The near-ban on using anything other than rational expectations is still very strong. In the hunt for truth, sociology is often the greatest barrier.

The problem is equating nominal market price with underlying value, "the fundamentals."

Nominal market price is determined at the margin and can therefore vary both rapidly and widely.

While it is a truism that "in the long run" prices must approximate fundamentals, in the short run a lot of people can be ruined, and there is no model available that is conclusive — because "animal spirits" (Keynes). Traders call it "momo," signifying "momentum," which measured as changes in velocity and acceleration of trends.

The assumptions involved in current models based on rational expectations are too restrictive to account for observed phenomena which include bubbles and busts. The scope of the models are too narrow and miss the "action."

Economics hate to admit that they don't have a model, so they stick with the "best explanation" — which doesn't work at crucial points.

This is a problem affecting regulation and policy since regulators are often economists‚ think Allan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke, and policy is heavily influenced by conventional economic theory and models. Worse, regulators that warn about uncertainty and overextension are sometimes let go as result of being honest.

Laffer’s trickle-down economics did not do well empirically. Whether a cut in taxes stimulates the economy is a different question, and also any changes in tax rates might be overcompensated by changes in government spending taking place simultaneously. This, I believe, was part of the bait-and-switch under Ronald Reagan (tax cuts for the rich, but huge increase in government spending on defence) and will be part of the Trump policy, too. Nothing new here.

After the 2008 financial crisis, the call for a more heterogeneous approach to studying and teaching economics intensified. But how can heterodoxy take up a more prominent place in economic science? A cultural anthropologist offers three suggestions.

Today, I’m going to discuss what a currency peg is, which will prepare you to understand my discussion on the Job Guarantee, the reason why a standalone basic income guarantee is all the rage as “the” solution, and why the Job Guarantee is dismissed by politicians around the world. Much of what I discuss with you today will be a review, which it is, but we need to add a little bit more to your knowledge and understanding of the concept of a peg, and what its purpose is.There is a very good reason why politicians around the world are pushing for a basic income and ignoring the Job Guarantee.

The reason for it is not what you think it is.

Nonsense arguments about automation making labor meaningless; about the JG being big government socialism; about the JG being “workfare”, make-work ditch-digging jobs – all of these arguments are talking points handed down to basic income advocates. They mask the real reason why politicians and Very Important Persons oppose the Job Guarantee and why they are pushing a basic income as “the” solution.

Today, we will use gold as our peg example. First, very briefly, let’s define reality.

On Tuesday, President Barack Obama issued a White House memorandum (see full text below) to both the US State and Defense departments which waives any arms export control restrictions on providing ‘military assistance’ to any and all ‘foreign forces’ in Syria, according to a White House press release issued today. Presumably, this includes not only guns and ammuniation, but also lethal TOW Missiles and RPGs (and anti-aircraft units?) for tens of thousands of extremist foreign fighters and salafi terrorists currently operating inside Syria, as well as thousands of US-trained and equipped fighters waiting in camp in both Turkey and Jordan.

This desperate move by Obama can only mean two things. Firstly, it demonstrates that the US and its allies are doggedly determined to prolong one the bloodiest and dirtiest wars in recent history. Secondly, it signals a last-ditch act of desperation on the part of a President who will be viewed as a perennial loser in a failed proxy war that lasted over 5 years, costing tens of billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives.

Senate Democrats are holding out on backing a bill to keep the government funded through April 28, risking a government shutdown that would begin on Saturday.

Democrats may still back the funding measure, but a demand to extend miners’ health care coverage for a full year is holding up a deal.The House easily approved the legislation Thursday afternoon, but without an agreement. the Senate can’t take an initial vote until Saturday at 1 a.m. Government funding is due to run out at the end of the day Friday.Democratic objections are led by Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who are both up for reelection in 2018 in states carried by President-elect Donald Trump.

They want to extend expiring healthcare benefits for retired coal miners for at least a year. The current bill would extend the benefits for retired miners for four months, to coincide with the expiration of broader government funding April 28.

“Everybody in the caucus is insisting on demanding those two things and working to get the Republicans to agree: Buy America and one year [of health benefits] for the miners,” Brown told reporters Tuesday....

Trump's walking back his "immediately terminate" pledge on DACA, which is angering Republicans.

Donald Trump’s new promise to “work something out” for young immigrants is dividing fellow Republicans, underscoring how difficult it will be for Congress to take any action on immigration, whether it’s building a wall or dealing with immigrant youths.During the campaign Trump pledged to “immediately terminate” President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration, including the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, known as DACA, which has extended work permits and temporary deportation relief to more than 700,000 immigrants brought illegally to this country as youths.

But in an interview in Time magazine, Trump adopted a far more sympathetic tone toward the young immigrants known to their supporters as “Dreamers.”

“We’re going to work something out that’s going to make people happy and proud,” Trump said. “They got brought here at a very young age, they’ve worked here, they’ve gone to school here. Some were good students. Some have wonderful jobs. And they’re in never-never land because they don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Anyone with a cursory knowledge of American history knows the US intelligence services are not above targeting their own citizens for disinformation campaigns. In perhaps the most famous case, the CIA employed a cadre of journalists to spread disinformation during the Cold War under a program known as Operation Mockingbird.

The network was not just large, but pervasive throughout the mainstream media. According to Carl Bernstein, the network included: CBS, Time Inc., The New York Times, NBC, the Associated Press, United Press International, Reuters, Hearst Newspapers, Scripps‑Howard, Newsweek magazine, the Mutual Broadcasting System, the Miami Herald and the New York Herald-Tribune....

The Washington Post is still deeply connected to the CIA. The new owner of the Post, Jeff Bezos, is also the CEO of Amazon, which has a $600 million contract with the CIA for cloud computing services.…

Again, who is PropOrNot? Is it a front group for US or Ukrainian intelligence, or just some group of trolls? Does The Washington Post know? Does the Washington Post care?Or is the hunt for “fake news” and foreign propaganda really about silencing dissent and undercutting new media competitors? These questions need to be answered.

Hopkins is a satirist. This is a well-crafted humorous takedown that is well deserved. It is also deadly serious and a wakeup call to a hijacking in progress.

As I suggested in these pages previously, what we are experiencing is the pathologization (or the “abnormalization”) of political dissent, i.e., the systematic stigmatization of any and all forms of non-compliance with neoliberal consensus reality. Political distinctions like “left” and “right” are disappearing, and are being replaced by imponderable distinctions like “normal” and “abnormal,” “true” and “false,” and “real” and “fake.” Such distinctions do not lend themselves to argument. They are proffered to us as axiomatic truths, empirical facts which no normal person would ever dream of contradicting.

In place of competing political philosophies, the neoliberal intelligentsia is substituting a simpler choice, “normality” or “abnormality.” The nature of the “abnormality” varies according to what is being stigmatized. Today it’s “Corbyn the anti-Semite,” tomorrow it’s “Sanders the racist crackpot,” or “Trump the Manchurian candidate,” or whatever. That the smears themselves are indiscriminate (and, in many instances, totally ridiculous) belies the effectiveness of the broader strategy, which is simply to abnormalize the target and whatever he or she represents. It makes no difference whether one is smeared as a racist, as Sanders was during the primaries, or as an anti-Semite, as Corbyn has been, or a fascist, as Trump has relentlessly been, or peddlers of Russian propaganda, as Truthout, CounterPunch, Naked Capitalism, and a number of other publications have been … the message is, they are somehow “not normal.”

General Barry McCaffrey tells NBC News that he was initially supportive of Donald Trump’s decision to name Lt. General Michael Flynn as his national security advisor. But, a closer look at Flynn’s social media use shows that he sent out at least 16 different fake (propaganda) news stories via social media and General McCaffrey pulled no punches, bluntly calling the tweets and stories “demented.”...

Lawyers representing traders who allege they were ripped off by a group of colluding global banks filed eye-popping evidence in a Manhattan Federal Court yesterday showing that even as global banks were being criminally probed for rigging currency markets, they continued to engage in rigging the silver market, with a UBS trader referring to the group as the “mafia.”...

With the evidence filed yesterday, there is no longer any justification for the Justice Department to dawdle further. From Libor rigging, to currency exchange rigging, to precious metals, to the charges of stock market rigging made in the Michael Lewis book, Flash Boys, there is an overarching appearance that every market has been rigged against average investors. We need a Justice Department that will grab the reins to restore trust, transparency and honest dealing in U.S. markets.

As the CEO of the corporation that operates Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s, President-elect Donald Trump’s labor secretary pick Andy Puzder has frequently criticized efforts to raise the minimum wage, claiming that higher wages are inadequate for entry-level employees and overly burdensome to businesses like his fast food empire.

That aligns with Trump’s position.

But Puzder’s devotion to cheap labor extends to being an outspoken proponent of offering legal status to undocumented workers and pushing for immigration reform — something that is discordant with Trump’s obsession with blocking and deporting undocumented immigrants....

Trump has already backed away from his goal deporting all illegals to only the the criminals, which he estimated to be about two to three million. That's a big climb down.

The Intercept reported earlier this week that Veronica Birkenstock, who runs a recruitment firm that secures visas for cheap temporary foreign workers, had been appointed to President-elect Donald Trump’s Department of Labor transition team.

We knew this because Birkenstock’s name appeared on a list of individuals in an announcement on the Trump transition’s website on Tuesday.

But by Thursday, her name had disappeared from the team’s website.

Asked what had happened to Birkenstock, a spokesperson for the transition team responded: “This individual was never part of the team and has no role.”

In any event, the Post’s story was really all about PropOrNot’s list and, in contrast to FPRI, the organization remains fully opaque. What is PropOrNot trying to hide? One possibility: The Pentagon. The Defense Department is, after all, spending billions of dollars a year on information warfare, and has, under Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, been promoting the idea of Russia as an existential threat to the US.

One indication of some level of Pentagon involvement is the curious role of Joel Harding, whose own blog identifies him as a retired longtime military intelligence officer specializing in “information operations, strategic communication and cyberwarfare”—in other words, psychological warfare and propaganda. Harding, who denied (via an email conversation with me) any connection to the 30 or 40 “volunteers” alleged to be working at PropOrNot, is nonetheless the only named “analyst” whose work is cited as a rationale for listing any of the sites on PropOrNot’s list....

Russia poses no military threat to the US or NATO. The "threat" is Russia's ability to use less to accomplish more. Even though the West greatly outguns and outproduces Russia, its execution of foreign and military policy has been abysmal in comparison.

IrrussianalityWestern power. What use is it?Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

SHARMINI PERIES: Dahr, this is the third General that Trump has chosen to join his cabinet -- James Mattis and Michael Flynn for Secretary of Defense and National Security Advisor. Now how should we interpret this? The previous interview I had done with Vijay Pershad, he says this is shaping up to look like the junta rather than the cabinet -- your thoughts on that?DAHR JAMAIL: I would agree with that statement.

The very sharp Ken Rogoff predicts a boom over the next four years: "The biggest missing piece... is business investment, and if it starts kicking in... output and productivity could begin to rise very sharply.... You don’t have to be a nice guy to get the economy going.... It is far more likely that after years of slow recovery, the US economy might at last be ready to move significantly faster..."

The Post has made clear that it does not consider fairness and accuracy to be important. How can journalists there, who, unlike Timberg, care about the integrity of their work, feel comfortable working for a management that is promoting a rush to the bottom in the interest of getting stories out faster and getting more eyeballs? And why should the public at large trust the Post? After the firestorm of criticism, the editors and publishers of the Post should recognize that they have a serious quality control problem. If Timberg and the editors responsible are not fired or demoted, this sends a clear message to all other writers that anything goes.

As part of a continuing inquiry into Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser-Designate Gen. Michael Flynn (ret.), here’s a passage in his book co-authored by Michael Ledeen, on the alleged nuclear plant at Al Kibar in Syria that Israeli air strikes presumably destroyed in 2007....

Hardly an expert on nuclear issues myself, I asked Robert Kelley, who has done considerable research on the alleged Syrian nuclear program, to comment. Kelley is a bona fide expert on things nuclear, particularly in deciphering signals of nuclear-related activity from satellite photos. He has been the leader of a foreign intelligence analysis group at Los Alamos and a chief inspector of Iraqi nuclear programs at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Along the way, he has been a research reactor supervisor, a plutonium facility manager, and a director of the DOE Remote Sensing Laboratory at Nellis Air Force Base. He currently writes on non-proliferation for a number of publications and is an associate research fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute....

In short, Gen. Flynn may have been highly effective at coordinating operations to speedily track down and kill or apprehend suspected al-Qaeda and Taliban cells in Iraq and Afghanistan. But in assessing nuclear weapons programs and in separating actual facts from sheer speculation or prejudice—let alone in presenting information and context clearly and logically (or chronologically)—he is sorely lacking.