We're # uhhhh... China's Economy to Outgrow United States' by 2030

This story first appeared on the Guardian website.

A US intelligence portrait of the world in 2030 predicts that China will be the largest economic power, climate change will create instability by contributing to water and food shortages, and there will be a "tectonic shift" with the rise of a global middle class.

The National Intelligence Council's Global Trends Report, published every five years, says the world is "at a critical juncture in human history."

The report, which draws in the opinion of foreign experts, including meetings on the initial draft in nearly 20 countries, paints a future in which US power will greatly diminish but no other individual state rises to supplant it.

"There will not be any hegemonic power," the report says. "Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multi-polar world."

The report offers a series of potential scenarios for 2030. It says the best outcome would be one in which "China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation." It says the worst is a world in which "the US draws inward and globalization stalls."