World View & Market Commentary. Forest first; Trees second. Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Futures are slightly higher this morning, here’s the overnight action on the Dow and the S&P:

Yesterday’s move up was obviously the large move called for by the small movement in the McClelland Oscillator on Friday. It was a powerful 90% up day. I look at that move as either the beginning of wave c up of wave B up, or it is a wave 2 up of 3 down. For it to be a wave 2, prices will need to begin to fall again very soon which is so far not indicated by the price action. You can see the waves on this 30 minute SPX chart pretty well. Note that we retraced 50% of the most recent down wave already. The short term stochastics are overbought up through the 60 minute timeframe:

We have just entered what could be an important turn window which bolsters the case that we may have completed wave b down of B and are beginning wave c up. Also bolstering the c case is that /ZB just broke it's most recent uptrend this morning and thus could be headed lower in price, higher in yeild:

Of course Goldman did wind up making a huge $3.44 billion profit in the second quarter. Lovely. Bonuses for all of them while the taxpayers are saddled with the debt of bailing out AIG and passing their money into the quasi government (4th branch thereof) hands!

Yesterday the latest treasury budget numbers were released, another record as explained by Mike Larson at Interest Rate Roundup:

More record-setting deficit figures to chew onHope everyone is having a decent Monday. One item that's worth noting this afternoon is the latest budget update from the U.S. Treasury. Turns out the June deficit came in at $94.3 billion, the first time there's been a deficit for that month since 1991. It's also the largest June deficit ever. The year-to-date tally of red ink? A record $1.1 trillion in the first nine months of the fiscal year that ends September 30, 2009.

There was quite a bit of data out this morning and I’m running out of time so I’ll post this and will add the economic data in a separate post in just a few minutes.

Hope everyone has a great day,

Nate

Here’s Oliver receiving a little on the job training on behalf of Goldman Sachs: