McKinnon: Spouses don't win elections

4/15/12 10:28 AM EDT

Writing for The Daily Beast, Mark McKinnon puts the back-and-forth over Ann Romney in some much-needed context, and points out that there are real limitations to the role of the candidate's wife:

Hillary Clinton’s favorables in 1992 were half those of Barbara Bush; her unfavorables, double. Not that surprising since she challenged expectations, seeking a more active policy role as first-lady-to-be. More polls were fielded and questions went beyond likability to acceptance of Hillary Clinton as co-president. And in the first half of 1996, her unfavorable ratings went above her favorables, a first in recent history, with polls focusing on the Whitewater scandal and her influence on President Bill Clinton’s decision making.

Regardless of her ratings, her husband won election and reelection. ...

If we predicted elections only on the popularity of the candidate’s spouse, history would be rewritten. Elizabeth Dole and Tipper Gore would both have been married to former presidents; they were both well-liked.

Today, party identification remains the most significant predictor of public support for the candidates’ better halves. It is true, when voters rate the candidate’s spouse favorably, they are more likely to evaluate the candidate favorably. And the role the spouse chooses to play can impact favorability. But that is not a guarantee of victory for the candidate.

In the end, people don't vote for the candidate's spouse. They vote for the candidate, whose image can be influenced by the behavior and personality of their spouse. As McKinnon points out, even that has its limits.

To the extent that voters -- and the press -- may focus on the candidates' wives this time around, it's at least in part because the cultural contrast between Ann Romney and Michelle Obama is so stark. One is a traditional stay-at-home mom who has chosen family over career, the other is an accomplished lawyer who was more professionally impressive than her husband until about nine years ago. And both are compelling personalities in their own right.