May 15, 2009

Journals forecast to cost 7-9% more in 2010

Library Journal, in its annual Periodical Price Survey, says that the current state of the dollar means that journal prices will likely average 7-9% more in cost next year. Given the state budget deficit and the effect that will undoubtedly have on funding for higher education, LJ's forecast raises concern about the Libraries' ability to hold off journal cancellations.

Contrary to perceptions that access issues only affect scientists, LJ projects that journals in the social sciences will actually have a higher price increase than science journals (8.3% for the former, 7.5% for the latter).

An excerpt:

Amidst the national and international financial crises, the journals marketplace is navigating new waters. Many libraries, including some of our largest research institutions, say massive cancellations are already in the works. It seems certain that most libraries will have less money to spend than they had in 2009. Publishers have been asked to roll back prices so libraries can keep valued content. Based on past records, some will remain intractable, absorb cancellations without making price concessions or renegotiating licenses, and wait for a better day. Others will deal in the hopes of keeping content in front of users until library budgets recover and prices return to prerecession levels. In recent years, price increases for journals have averaged 7–9%. Despite pleas for pricing mercies, we don’t have any information at this point that suggests those averages won’t hold for 2010. The conservative budget manager will plan on increases in that range in the coming year.