THE PROBLEM WITH WEB VIDEOS IS THAT TV IS REALLY BIG STILL: ComScore reported that in February the audience for Web video in the U.S. was over 182 million users, which sounds awfully big. That is, until you look at TV’s audience: 283 million people watch TV a month, according to a Nielsen report recently published in Adweek. Thus, some analysts are starting to question the theory that Web video companies can really snatch ad revenue from TV, reports WSJ’s CMO Today. Their theory: TV is already huge, and Web video barely adds enough incremental reach to be worth it. Web video results in just pounding the same TV audience over the head, this theory goes. , RBC Capital Markets analyst David Bank said “online video consumers tend to represent a very concentrated and somewhat limited subsection of consumers.” Naturally, many in the Web video ad industry disagree. And they will naturally mention TV’s declining ratings, and Web video’s ability to reach light TV viewers and cord cutters. But it does present an interesting obstacle for Web video companies like YouTube; with reach numbers like these, you can see why it so easy for brands to stick with TV for another year, rather than take a risk online.

GOOGLE IS GOING TO START FOLLOWING YOU: Not really. But Google is trying to solve a puzzle that has long baffled marketers–how do I know if my online ads really get people to buy stuff in the real world? As part of a test with six advertisers, Google is looking to match its data with that of credit card purchase data to gauge whether Google’s ads drive in store sale, reports WSJ.Yes, there is a big argument to be made that just because somebody clicked on an ad and he or she bought something–it doesn’t mean that ad was the sole cause of that action. And yes, this will definitely freak privacy advocates out. But if this proves successful–and more importantly, scalable, it could have huge implications. One reason brands have long been comfortable with TV is they know it works–because when they run lots of TV ads their sales go up (particularly retailers). If Google and others could truly provide some compelling evidence that online ads drive real shopping behavior, it could cause many a brand marketer to reconsider how they spend their media budget. There are a lot of ifs here, but the potential ramifications are huge.

WHO REPLACES MR. COLBERT?: Now that everyone in media’s guessing game–who is going to replace David Letterman at CBS–is over, now the question turns to who replaces Stephen Colbert at Comedy Central? The possibilities are wide open in terms of candidates and formats, reports WSJ. That could mean promoting someone from “The Daily Show,” where Mr. Colbert got his start, or it could lead Comedy Central to eyeball other candidates, such as Amy Schumer of the network’s “Inside Amy Schumer.” One thing that has to be bugging Comedy Central–last summer, “Daily Show” correspondent John Oliver had a widely praised run filling in for Jon Stewart, who was directing a movie. He would seem the perfect choice, if only the timing worked out. Mr. Oliver has left the network to start a new show at HBO beginning this month.

BARELY TWEETING: The evidence that Twitter has a problem with the mainstream Internet crowd is mounting. First, during its initial earnings announcement in February, Twitter executives warned that the social network’s growth is slowing. Since then, the company has been looking to make Twitter more accessible to the unindoctrinated. And then a few weeks ago came a report from the analytics firmTwopchartsthat the vast majority of new users Twitter has added over the past two years never tweet. Now, another report from Twopcharts shows that 44% of Twitter users have never tweeted, reports WSJ’s Digits. Sure, people can enjoy Twitter without actually tweeting–but after a while, Twitter has to be concerned about all this noise–because advertisers must be noticing. Every day, it seems like there is another Snapchat and Whatsapp social application exploding into consumers consciousness, stealing some of Twitter’s heat. Meanwhile, advertisers are starting to get excited about emerging social ad platforms like Pinterest and Instagram. Twitter has to be pulling out all the stops to show some solid organic user growth by the time its next earnings call is held in May.

YOUTUBE NETWORK BIDDING WAR?: So Walt Disney Co. is buying the YouTube network Maker Studios, right? Well, probably, but things have gotten weird and interesting. First, there was a report in The Hollywood Reporter that former Maker CEO Danny Zappin could thwart the deal with a lawsuit. Now, the midsized film and entertainment studio Relativity Media LLC has swept in with a late bid for Maker, reports WSJ. The deals are relatively close in value: Disney is $500 million in cash and $450 million worth of additional payouts, while Relativity is offering $500 million of its stock, along with $400 million in stock if certain financial targets are met and a potential $100 million in executive bonuses. This is getting intriguing to say the least–though its hard to see the team at Maker turning down the Disney marketing machine.

ELSEWHERE: Apple appears to be signalling that its advertising strategy is in need of an overhaul, as the company has recently shaken up its digital agency roster and is now hiring a top creative executive from Madison Avenue, reports Ad Age. Google needs more office space in New York City, reports WSJ. Barry Diller’s IAC/InterActiveCorp has purchased 10% of the dating app Tinder for $500 million, putting the startup’s value at $5 billion, reports Bloomberg.It isn’t the holidays, per say, but brands spend a significant amount of ad dollars during the Easter season, reports WSJ’s CMO Today. IBM has purchased an email marketing technology company, its sixth tech acquisition this year, reports WSJ’s CMO Today. The fledgling cable news network Al Jazeera America is laying off a few dozen staff employees, reports TV Newser. Amazon is expected to launch a smartphone in June, reports WSJ.

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