50 Responses to “0027 – Aaron Craft gets Benched”

Props to Aaron Craft so far in the tournament. He’s not an NBA player but he’s a darn good college player. He’ll stay at OSU for his senior year, be a practice player in the NBA for two years then go on to be a great doctor.

Nate made a good point on Livingston. He’s a useful player if he’s playing along two perimeter shooters and a big that can shoot. As evidenced by the Heat game, I’d argue one of those perimeter shooters also needs to be able to handle the ball (i.e. waiters). But, filling in all those gaps left by Livingston is not exactly what you want out of a bench PG. This is why no NBA team wanted him other than the Cavs.

Livingston is essentially an underweight SF with above average handles (for a SF) and a poor shot. Byron Scott is the only coach in the NBA to find a way to make him a serviceable backup. Props to Byron.

Tom, if Livingston is our first or second guy off the bench for the next 3-4 years we’re going to be discussing more high draft picks the next 3-4 years. He’s a situational player who should be getting 10 minutes a night. He can’t be a first option off the bench on any credible team.

I don’t see Livingston getting offered $6 million from anyone next year. I think he’s a $2 million player, and perhaps worth that for the Cavs for a year.

I think you guys are caught in a Livingston bubble and are overvaluing him. His stats as a starter since Kyrie left aren’t overly impressive: 31 minutes, 11.5 points, 4 assists, 3 rebs, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks. This seems about right for a career journeyman. But I want a real backup PG.

$ – if I am overvaluing him it is because I believe he can continue the production trends he has set as a Cavalier. My point in all the journeyman/injury talk was to point out that I don’t believe injuries made him a journeyman. Using that logic – something else made him a journeyman. So yeah, $, he’s a journeyman. If your backup pg can guard all the different backcourt positions and hold his own against bigger wings (allowing you to switch without mismatches) and post an average to above average PER – I don’t think that’s some indication you’re destined for the lottery.

Glad to hear Mallory’s given up on Zeller and wants to trade him. Should mean Zeller will have a nice season next year since Mallory also hated on TT after last year, knocked the DIon pick, and hated on Grant for not overpaying for bench players in the offseason which ultimately allowed for us to get Speights/Ellington/1st rounder.

I couldn’t believe that when I saw it. I had a hypothesis that he was better when the game was less in the balance. But I couldn’t have created those stat to more perfectly characterize that if I tried.

BTW who cares about logjams. It kept coming up in the podcast. Injuries happen…especially to the Cavs. Plus we’ve seen what a disaster it is to NOT have players at a position. The Cavs need a real bench PG. They need a myriad of forwards. They can make flexibility in 2014 via trades for one of the 100 #1 picks they are owed.

Mallory makes a good point on Ellington. He’s a good player but where exactly does he fit on this team? I think some of it depends on the draft. With McLemore and Oladipo being probably top 5 picks, there’s a real chance the Cavs draft a SG and that will take away all of Ellington’s minutes. I’d like to keep him but the range of $12mill for 3 years is a lot for a guy that’s only played well for 2 months. I like him a lot but he’s still a question mark.

Mallory- You were pretty down on this team earlier this year. This podcast could’ve been at the end of last season replacing Zeller’s name with Thompson. Give him an offseason to rest, put on weight, and get his J hitting again then evaluate whether he’s got a future as a significant player here.

Tom- I don’t see it. I just don’t get why you guys are so excited about him.

You guys seem to think the success of the bench was based on Livingston coming to the Cavs. That helped because we had a NBA journeyman at PG rather than a D-leaguer, but the first 3 weeks that he was playing here the Cavs still weren’t playing well. It wasn’t until we got Speights and Ellington, and Walton started playing better, and we dropped all the D-league guys that we started playing .500 ball. Livingston was an upgrade over Pargo for sure, but I don’t understand why you would sign him long term rather than a true PG with less holes in his game.

Livingston’s PER this year is under 13 and his game stats are not impressive. When you watch him it’s clear he’s not a PG. He doesn’t have handles and he can’t shoot. He dunks and plays D. That’s good but not enough. I mean he’s a nice story but what else?

The Cavs have won 22 games. I’ll continue to be unhappy until I see Ws. I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

You can take small victories from a good TT game, or a crazy Dion dunk. But in order for the Cavaliers to move from bottom dweller to playoff team these players need to perform at high levels night in and night out for an entire season. Do I think that’s possible? Yes. Do I think it’s immanent? No. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn’t.

The TT to Zeller comparisons are unreasonable. TT is a crazy athletic, raw PF who, at the time, was 20 years old. Tyler is 23, has played four years at a big time program, and is missing the fundamentals everyone thought he had coming into the league. Remember, the big argument for taking Zeller was that he was supposedly NBA ready.

I do NOT think the Cavs should get rid of him for nothing – that would be silly. His contract is inexpensive and he does still have potential. But if a trade comes along where he can be included to improve the likelihood of it happening, I’m not too concerned with keeping him.

Thanks for the shout out on the Ellington front. It’s an interesting situation the Cavs are in with Ellington/Waiters/Kyrie/Livingston and, if they draft a McLemore-type, that player too. Essentially, none of those guys, beyond Livingston sort-of, have the size to play SF. Versatility at the swing is completely underrated, and it’s something the Cavs are completely missing. It’s also one of the best arguments for keeping Livingston around – he’s actually a serviceable SF.

“Now, here’s the thing: Players who get March Madness bumps deserve them. Ichniowski and Preston also examined what happened to players after their draft days. They looked at whether the guys made the NBA; how many points and assists they had in their first year and over the course of their careers, in the regular season and the playoffs; and the chances that they became superstars (defined as making three or more All-Star teams). In every case, the group that got draft boosts from the NCAA tournament played better than those who didn’t. If anything, teams undervalue March Madness as a predictor of future success and stardom.

I usually repeat “sample size, sample size, sample size” about as often as and in the same tone that Jan Brady wailed “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia,” so I was shocked by these results. For most players, March Madness lasts only a game or two, yet it sends a signal powerful enough to last entire careers.” [Peter Keating – Insider]

Mallory – you actually make a great point in regards to Livingston in your latest comment. Having him on the bench with Ellington and another SG shouldn’t give up much defensively as he can switch to the SF for defense…and because of his heady passing skills, the scoring options are there. If we were to draft a big like Noel (early with the Lakers pick being a wing) or Len (with the Lakers pick and a wing being our Lottery pick) or sign a big (like Al Jefferson) you could move Andy to the bench.

A second unit lineup featuring Varejao, Zeller (hopefully improved), Livingston, Ellington and rookie SG isn’t a bad bench lineup. Varejao is a good passer for a big man and you would get scoring from Ellington and the rookie SG.

The starting lineup could be Kyrie – Dion – Gee (to play our version of Sefalosha) – TT – Noel/Len/Jefferson

Assuming Dion progresses and TT maintains his level of play, you have a fairly well rounded team…with decent deth everywhere but at SF (let’s face it…barring a trade, it will likely be a weakness at least until 2014…but one I can live with if our other positions are stronger for it. I am more than happy with plugging in a 3 and D SF and maintaining the right bench then swinging for the fences on getting any star SF with a huge price tag.)

Tom- Yes, McLemore looked bad in the NCAA tournament thus far. Scary. Still, he’ll likely go #2 in the draft. Who’s going to go before him? I like Oladipo a lot better than anyone else in this draft, but wow this a weak draft at the front in. Dion really might have gone #1 in this draft. Hopefully this is a deep draft but I’m not sure of that either.

Of COURSE they did. “Only six teams in the 3-point era have joined the exclusive 10-point club, which is reserved for only those who have a double-digit point differential. And the Thunder are currently one of them. Four teams eventually won the title, with the 2008-09 Cleveland Cavaliers (plus-10.3) being the only team to buck the trend.”

Yeah it’s unfortunate that a lot of the “lottery picks” are already out of the tournament (shabazz, marcus smart, anthony bennett, otto porter). Would’ve been nice to see some of those guys go a little further to see if they’re the real deal.

Maybe it’s time to start looking overseas. Anyone heard of Rudy Gobert? He’s 7’1″ with a 7’9″ wingspan but only 235 lbs (and looks like it). DraftExpress has him at #9 now.

$ – I have had Gobert as my darkhorse for a little while now. Good wing span and (supposedly) good athletic numbers. Yes, he needs to add some serious muscle to his frame…but ultimately, his length alone makes him a bit of a force to reckon with.

Amen, Ben. Who are the two guys with the most potential? Gobert and Noel. Why would you take the one with knee problems? Of course Gobert could be a poor man’s Hasheem Thabeet, too. He’s a high risk, high reward player to be sure.

I’m okay with multiple guys in the draft. The interesting thing about this draft is the Cavs could get Noel with the first pick or the fourth depending on the draft order. It is impossible to project where guys go until the lottery (May 21st I believe). Noel and Porter are probably the best fits, but I’d be okay with Olapido, McLemore, or Bennet with their top pick. I just want them to take the best player regardless of position with the possible exception of Smart. I see Bennet as a more athletic Paul Milsap. I can’t imagine him being a wasted pick. He’s too athletic and skilled to flop. Even if he’s a backup to TT he could play the three a little too. All of these guys Grant has drafted won’t be around in two years. Some will get traded. Probably in the next year.

My first pick order would be Porter, Noel, Bazz, trade back, Len. Those top 3 could change around. First round of Otto Porter at 3/4 and Kelly Olynyk at 15/16 sounds about as ideal as possible … Then again sNoel and Glenn Robinson 3 or Dario Saric sounds good too.

I’d really really rather not go into next season with the same SF situation as this year.

I’m not in love with Shabazz. Someone tell me why he would be a good pick. He’s got obvious attitude and maturity issues to get through. He can definitely score buckets but so can a lot of guys coming out.

That Aaron Craft talk is so absurd. It’s hilarious to hear people Mallory just gush and gush over the equivalent of Eric Snow (lets not be afraid of the cross-racial comparison guys.) Craft’s jumper is super broken and part of the superior spacing in the NBA (as opposed to college) is due to guards who collapse at the last minute and generally stay within challenging range of a shooter, no matter how bad he is. Also, those forays to the hoop with the “no-lift layup” get swatted into the floor in the NBA. Those are all stylistic things that AC can (and most likely will) change with time to be a pro but we’re talking about a guy who MAY be a 4th guard. An Avery Bradley with less bounce. AC has elite lateral movement but the minute he tries that brand of D against DRose, Westbrook, Jrue, Ty Lawson, etc… he’s going to get burned, repeatedly. Part of Craft’s college success is that he’s football strong in matchups with guys who aren’t yet physically mature. The handchecking people complain about isn’t something that other players don’t do..they just aren’t strong enough to consistently reroute their matchup like Craft is. That goes away in the league. AC is fun to watch but he’s not better than Nando De Colo. Nando barely gets minutes on a healthy Spurs team.

Another good exercise for discussions like these is to always have a replacement. To talk about Livingston and Speights without acknowledging the market forces in the league is flawed. Speights is a backup swing big. He’ll give servicable minutes at the 4/5. He isn’t at the Javale/Deandre Jordan level of “limitless potential” though. Those types of players don’t get long term deals and they dont get big money. Especially in the nba landscape where large pre-cba contracts still exist and the cap may come in flat next year. Look at memphis, they had an injury-prone, yet superior skilled two-way big in Darrell Arthur. He’s got 3 mil next year and a 3 mil player option. At the high end of the spectrum, Brandon Bass is getting about 7 mil per year for 3yrs in what is universally regarded as a bad deal for a serviceable player.

Let’s assume no one is giving Mo 7 a year and they’re looking at the 3.5 for DA as a starting point. Taking away the injury concerns and taking into account the Cavs (pre-extension) cap space. an 11 mil deal with 6 in the first year and a 60% guarantee in the second probably gets it done. It’s a raise for 13/14, a nominal cap charge in 14 if the Cavs strike out in Free agency or an enticing 5 mil cap money/3 mil cut money, 1 yr commitment to a team in a sign & trade (fingers crossed for Kevin Love?)

A few things. First, you realize Eric Snow was a starter for MANY years in the NBA right? And had a ton of success as a great defender who could score when he absolutely needed to.

Second, can anyone not named Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Iguadala, or Allen stop Rose/Westrbook/etc.? No. If Craft can even begin to slow those guys down, then he has a ton of value.

With regards to Speights, the 6 mil for two years was the number I had initially thrown out, but I actually think he’s probably played himself into a lower deal. I think 5 mil is probably within reason, and 4.5 might be doable.

Guys, Snow was a career 42% shooter and, when you take out his Cleveland years the number goes to above 43%. In addition, he had two years where he shot around 45% (one over, actually) and his PER was regularly around 15 for his best years. He did all this while being a great defender, a smart player, and a model leader.

Steve, the evidence that Craft can stop NBA players is that he stops NBA caliber players regularly in college. Say whatever you want about the college rules, but Craft uses lateral movement and basketball smarts to stop players. Hand checking is just a small part of his game.

Whenever I see someone gripe about Kyrie’s D, the immediate response from more than a few is “he’s young, he’ll learn!” What makes you think Aaron Craft, who has already shown a supreme penchant for D, can’t learn as well?

Eric Snow was the classic “starter that you always want to replace.” He couldn’t climb past Aaron McKie in minutes on a team coached by Larry Brown. His career was extended by 5-7 years based off of playing with the most dynamic offensive talents in the league who could support a drastically unbalanced offense (Bron and AI.) Most importantly, this all happened SIX years into his career. That’s the learning curve for a limited player like that to prove worthy of big minutes. Also, using shooting % as a comp there is just idiotic. Snow, Conley and Kemba Walker couldn’t possibly share a more dissimilar shot distribution. 45% on Wide open 15-footers =/= off the bounce step back jumpers and forays to the rim =/= a large amount of 5-10 foot floaters and set 3’s.

I know you’re amped off of some tourney games but Korie Luscious and MoMo Jones aren’t playing in the league..ever. Craft had good success in neutralizing Jones and lost Luscious repeatedly for 3’s when he wasn’t playing on-ball, body up defense. Craft also didn’t dominate those matchups offensively. He did a workman’s job of running the simple pick/pop and finding angles to get to the rim on teams with no inside athletic presence.

When playing Michigan he plays Trey Burke to about even. Trey Burke isn’t as good as Damian Lillard. Burke could very well be a solid 10 year mid-level starter in the league. You wouldn’t overhype an NBA player for playing even with Brandon Jennings or Lillard. Burke isn’t the player right now that either of those guys were/are as rookies.

Demetrius and all the other people losing it about the Craft talk – I think some perspective is in order. First – I initiated the debate because I had had enough of people taking to twitter to declare absolutely with full 100% confidence that Aaron Craft would never step foot in an NBA locker room unless he became a towel boy. My thought was: “wait what? The same Aaron Craft that ‘polarizes’ NBA GMs and scouts…that guy has zero chance to play in the NBA?” From that flowed my argument. And then I would say: “I don’t think it’s crazy to think he could be selected in the second round, especially in a weak draft” and people would point out all the reasons why Aaron Craft would NOT in fact be selected to play on an NBA team. Many of the reasons were incorrect. I read in certain places that he has “terrible” lateral quickness – which is false. I’ve heard this argument repeatedly that the only reason for his defensive prowess is that he “hand-checks”. The logic in that argument is akin to: “This guy’s whole game relies on hitting college 3 pointers – and although he is elite among his college peers, and an outlier, the NBA three point line is different and therefore he will have no success at the next level.” You know maybe the lack of hand checking will eliminate some of his steals or cause him to be whistled for MORE fouls than he currently is whistled for. Fun fact – he went over 100 minutes without drawing a foul during the end of the Big Ten tournament into the NCAA tournament. Respectable people were simultaneous saying: “he will never be able to stay on the court he will foul out in the NBA with this defense”. This about a guy that only gets 5 fouls in college, and is highly unlikely to play starters minutes in the pros – but alas – “he will foul out”. Sure. And then people were saying he is too small. He is 6-2, 200lbs. That is Chauncey Billups territory for a point guard. Then there’s the whole – you can’t play in the NBA if you can’t shoot. Except, superstars do – even in the backcourt.

So – don’t misread or misinterpret all the exasperation on my part in the podcast or in this comment as some sort of evidence that I think:
1.) Aaron Craft will be an effective NBA player
2.) I think Aaron Craft can be as good as other guys that had long careers despite offensive shortcomings like Andre Miller or Rajon Rondo or even Eric Snow.
3.) (Dear God) I don’t think the Cavs should draft Aaron Craft.

If NBA GMs are really ‘polarized’ and ‘love’ his toughness, if Chad Ford figures he’ll be on an NBA roster next year, if he continues to shut down opposing wings while leading his team deep into the tournament (in THIS draft class), it is more than conceivable that someone might, in fact, draft Aaron Craft. In the podcast I believe I:
1.) Said I’d rather have Norris Cole (career PER below 8) over Aaron Craft. (Norris Cole was selected in the 1st round, was a 4 year senior, and even though he had superior stats, played in a much inferior conference – Horizon vs Big Ten)
2.) Predicted Craft would be drafted 50th out of 60.

The problem here – is the goalposts keep moving. All the arguments that Craft will NEVER play in the NBA get met with the above facts, and then people squirm into saying:
1.) “Well he’s not gonna be GOOD”
2.) “Why are we even having this conversation it’s stooopid”
3.) “Oh my God you are in love with Aaron Craft and think he’s a budding superstar. You are either delusional or racist – either way you lose all credibility.”

How about this: “I think Aaron Craft is good enough to be drafted in the second round and play on an NBA team – something that very few humans are capable of doing. Compared to other NBA prospects and players I think he is too limited to shine in that company – but I think he, like Norris Cole and Chris Quinn, could play with them.” That’s the goalpost – you can get on either side if you care to debate it – but don’t move it or change it so that you feign exasperation.

Here’s more: If after hitting a game-winning 3 DeShaun Thomas was declared ineligible for the NBA by a bunch of self-described ‘NBA Junkies’ I’m sure my reaction would be the same. “Wait what? The guy that many people say is one of the best scorers in college won’t ever ever play in the NBA? Really? No chance someone takes him in the second round?” And then what if the same people started saying: “DeShaun Thomas won’t be able to play at the next level because he has a slow release, no handle, and can’t get shots off unless he is spotted up.” OK so that’s just wrong – there are reasons he might not play at the next level – those aren’t the reasons. Try to think of it the same way.

My point in address you, Demetrius, is that I agree with some of your arguments. I was the first person I ever noticed to compare Craft to Eric Snow. It’s a pretty valid comparison actually. Snow was better at some things, Craft at others. Similar size, similar role, etc etc. And so it became harder to swallow this idea that Aaron Craft is exclusively a college player and essentially ineligible according to the high court to compete at the next level. And then I’d point out that Eric Snow played over 24 thousand NBA minutes. if Craft plays 1 NBA minute – my argument has been vindicated – that he is, in fact, good enough to play. If that’s boring or silly or not important – i agree, let’s move on. Sorry for stirring up the hive. I just never understood the certainty with which people could declare his basketball destiny. Quite often we spent time trying to break down the “ceilings” of Cavaliers based on NBA action. It’s no science. Projecting someone like Craft or D Thomas is even harder in my opinion. A few weeks ago I declared that Craft might not be talented enough to play in my rec league. That’s how hard it was to tell if he was really any good. But I’ve digged into the stats, read the scouting reports, watched the Big Ten Tournament and now the NCAA tournament – and I think he at least has a chance.

Your entire analysis seems predicated on assuming that Craft will be drafted high and expected to start. I certainly don’t foresee either of those things happening, and I doubt many others do either. Craft is the perfect late first/early second round player – he has a near elite to elite NCAA to NBA skill and, with some work, could be passable at everything else. Considering the junk that comes at the 27th pick or later, doesn’t taking a chance on a potentially elite defender with a paid-for pick seem reasonable?

As for the Snow shooting argument, the idea wasn’t to show that Snow’s game was comparable to Conley or Kemba, it was simply to point out that for all of the talk on Snow’s HORRIBLE shooting, he was actually just passable.

Craft will be cheap, work hard in practice, and play a role on a 2nd squad for an NBA team. He’ll get a couple garbage layups in transition or dribble penetrate when the opposing guard is not paying attention. No one will care if he fouls 3-5 times a game if he does enough to disrupt the opposing offense in limited minutes. He’ll be on a team because there is a hard cap and teams like Miami that are strapped need cheap smart players. Teams that are tanking need these players too. I’m sure he’d be ecstatic to be compared to someone like Eric Snow.

The real question is why we are arguing if Craft will declare for the draft this year. It’s doubtful he’d go in the first round and he obviously values his education. He was valedictorian in high school and is an academic all-american. with a 3.9 GPA. There’s no reason for him to leave his BMOC status a year early to be in the D League or at the end of bench. You can’t get those years back. We all had fun in college but Craft is certainly on a different level. Why would he leave that?

The right mix of an NBA roster isn’t all superstars. There aren’t a lot of them to go around especially in the collusion era. You need guys who bust their asses at practice. Guys who will give it their all even though they’ll get little more than mop up duty. It’s ideal if you best player is that guy, but if everyone on the team is engaged and pushes themselves and others it creates a culture like the Spurs have. I think Craft could be on an NBA roster.

Mallory, shooting 42% on wide open 12 footers and layups is not an impressive number. And it sure as hell isn’t evidence that he could score when he absolutely needed to.

The college game is a lot different than the NBA game. Craft doesn’t just use lateral movement and smarts to make stops. He uses very physical play and less spacing allowed by the NCAA rules. And hand checking is far from a small part of his game.

Tom, you used quotes. That usually signifies you are taking, verbatim, something someone else said. I’ll wait for the full citation. The backlash to those negative on Craft is at least as ridiculous as some of the worst haters.

The Lineup: (Click for Author’s Archive)

Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

Robert Attenweiler is a Staff Writer. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.

Benjamin Werth is a Staff Writer. He was born in Cleveland and raised in Mentor, OH. He now lives in Germany where he is an opera singer and actor. He can be reached at blfwerth@gmail.com.

Cory Hughey is a Staff Writer. He grew up in Youngstown, the Gary, Indiana of Ohio. He graduated from Youngstown State in 2008 with a worthless telecommunications degree. He can be contacted at theleperfromwatts@yahoo.com or @coryhughey on Twitter.

David Wood is our Links Editor. He is a 2012 Graduate of Syracuse University with an English degree who loves bikes, beer, basketball, writing, and Rimbaud. He can be reached on Twitter: @nothingwood.

Mallory Factor is the voice of Cavs: The Podcast. By day Mallory works in fundraising and by night he runs a music business company. To see his music endeavors check out www.fivetracks.com. Hit him up at Malloryfactorii@gmail.com or @Malfii.

John Krolik is the Editor Emeritus of Cavs: The Blog. At present, he is pursuing a law degree at Tulane University. You can contact him at johnkrolik@gmail.com or @johnkrolik.

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