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Monday, October 31, 2011

there are still a few clouds lingering this evening, otherwise we have a hazy sky just after sunset. humidity today was again on the high side, between 60-70% for most of the day, while the high temp reached 64.4F (18.0C) during the early afternoon.

the last four days or so have been quite similar... with pretty much unlimited sunshine until around 11:00am, followed by varying degrees of cloudiness during the mid-day into the early evening hours. so far, there has been no rainfall in the area, but we could still squeeze out a random few sprinkles or light showers during the afternoon sometime this week. the flow aloft is west-to-east, so occasional weak embedded disturbances and a moderate amount of low-level moisture will continue to prevent us from enjoying totally sunny, cloud-free skies.

right now, our available computer model guidance doesn't show any dramatic turn of events in our near future... so november should kick off very similarly to the way october is ending. we are right in the midst of the driest time of the year in the dharamsala area, so this quiet weather is right on track...

MONDAY NIGHT: generally clear skies.
low: 12C (53F)

TUESDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but turning mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 18C (64F)

the sky is totally clear at sunrise... as it has been during the vast majority of mornings during the past several weeks. i've recorded an overnight low of 53.2F (11.8C), which is actually the coolest of the month at my location. humidity is rather high this morning, at 71%.

the higher humidity here at the surface, combined with a few very weak disturbances aloft is what has fed into the cloud development over the mountains during the afternoons recently. i see no reason why today should be an exception, so the morning sunshine will likely yield to clouds again by noon or shortly thereafter. rain chances remain extremely slim, but still don't be surprised if there are a few sprinkles or a brief light shower one or two afternoons during the coming week.

the general weather pattern will remain the same as we say hello to november... a rather strong west-to-east flow aloft, with no surface features to speak of. our gradual turn to cooler temps, which is of course normal this time of year, will continue on...

Sunday, October 30, 2011

the sunset was barely visible just a few minutes ago, due to hazy, partly cloudy skies. our beautiful morning sunshine was rapidly replaced by cloudiness just after 1pm, which remained for the majority of the afternoon hours. i recorded a cool high temp of just 62.8F (17.1C), while the humidity averaged around 65% for much of the day.

satellite pics this afternoon confirmed that cloud development was confined to the south-facing slopes of the himalayan front ranges, with the heaviest build-up along the dhauladars, as usual. there may have also been some rain and snow showers at the highest elevations.

as threatening as the sky looked this afternoon, we're not really in a pattern that would favor good chances of rain here at our elevation. there will be some disorganized disturbances floating through the area during the next several days, which will keep periods of clouds alternating with mainly morning sunshine, but the way it looks now, stormy weather and significant rainfall is not expected. still... don't be surprised if we get a period of light showers at some point this week, and always be prepared if you're heading higher into the mountains.

temperatures should remain near or even a bit below normal as we make the transition from october to november...

SUNDAY NIGHT: hazy, but only a few clouds.
low: 12C (53F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, but partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon. a brief shower possible PM.
high: 17C (63F)

TUESDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, with a slight chance of a shower.
morning low: 12C (53F)
daytime high: 18C (64F)

we have clear skies at sunrise, with very little cloudiness showing up on satellite pics at this stage of the morning. that will likely change as we head into the mid-day hours, though.

our overall weather pattern remains rather feature-less, and that should keep us in this pattern of sunshine alternating with some periods of mid-day and afternoon clouds. a few minor disturbances are forecast by computer models to drift through here on the westerly flow aloft during the coming several days, but right now, nothing very threatening is on the horizon. stay tuned, in case that changes.

temperatures have also been steady for the past few days, with no major changes expected, either up or down, during the coming week or so.

Friday, October 28, 2011

other than a few wisps of high, thin cirrus clouds and a bit of haze, we have clear skies at sunset this evening. the humidity was a bit higher today than it has been all week... averaging near 55%. i recorded a high temp of 64.0F (17.8C), which was actually a bit cooler than expected.

we had full sunshine until about 11am, then clouds began to develop over the mountains, and i was a bit surprised by the partial overcast between about 1 and 2pm. but by mid-afternoon, the clouds dissipated once again... just as quickly as they developed. upper air charts indicate one of those minor "wiggles" in the upper air pattern, which could have been responsible for the period of cloudiness.

it's still hard to pinpoint any significant changes on the way during the next couple of days at least. we'll continue to enjoy sunshine during the vast majority of the daylight hours, with temperatures remaining very close to normal for this time of year.

a disorganized system is being advertised by computer models for the first part of next week, but at this point, chances of significant rainfall appear to be slim. as always, be prepared if you are venturing into the mountains, regardless...

FRIDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies. cool.
low: 12C (54F)

SATURDAY: sunshine, with a few clouds, mainly in the afternoon.
high: 19C (66F)

waking up to another mostly clear sky on this friday morning, with the humidity reading at 58%. the overnight low temp here on tushita road has been 54.7F (12.6C)... one of the coolest i've logged this season.

barring any surprises, we should remain locked in this gorgeous autumn weather pattern for a few more days... with a quiet and stable atmosphere in place from the surface all the way into the upper atmosphere. clouds, even over the mountains, have been rather scarce the past couple of days, and i'm still wondering if we might get a day of 100% wall-to-wall sunshine in the near future.

despite all the sun, temperatures have actually cooled down another notch, but should hold fairly steady as we go through the weekend. still watching the potential for a more active weather pattern to begin developing early next week, but it's too early yet to say whether we'll get any decent chance of rain out of the deal. stay tuned...

Thursday, October 27, 2011

today was arguably the sunniest day in several months... with only a very feeble collection of clouds gathering over the mountains for a while between noon and about 4:00pm. despite the huge percentage of sunshine, it was a rather cool day, with the high temp only reaching 65.5F (18.6C).

general high pressure from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a westerly flow aloft, and the absence of any significant moisture is giving us a very quiet and stable weather situation, which should continue into the weekend. even the highest mountains have been pretty much free of rain/snow showers the last couple of days... providing some beautiful conditions for trekkers and climbers.

temperatures have been cooling gradually... as the himalayan airmass adapts to the longer nights, and seeps downslope. it's still warm in the sun, but we've reached the stage where the chill is pretty much here to stay in the shade, and during the overnight hours.

there may be some changes coming early next week, so stay tuned as we watch for a returning chance of some rain shower action...

aaahhhh... the sound of silence, on this morning after diwali celebrations. the sky is 100% clear, as we await the sunrise, with a humidity reading of 44%. my overnight low (and current temp) is 55.2F (12.9C).

our weather pattern is about as quiet, dull, and inactive as it ever gets in this part of the world. despite a rather strong westerly flow aloft, the atmosphere is stable and moisture is very limited. this combination is going to keep us in the sunshine for a few more days, with very little chance of even a stray shower... except perhaps far up the mountains. by late sunday, computer models are hinting at a bit of instability developing, which will gradually increase our shower chances as we head into the new week.

it looks like temperatures will remain fairly steady right through the forecast period, chilly overnight, but pleasantly mild in the daytime sun.

THURSDAY: sunny skies... with only a few clouds over the mountains in the afternoon.
high: 20C (68F)

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

a totally clear sky is allowing great views of both the sunset and the mountains this evening. sunshine has been the dominant feature all day, with humidity between 40-50%. i recorded a rather cool high temp of just 66.7F (19.3C).

on average, temperatures have cooled down about 4F/2C from where they were a week ago, as the daylight hours shorten, and mountain air spills down the slopes. actually, we're now squarely in the range of "normal" for the last week of october.

DIWALI fireworks are in no danger of being spoiled this evening, thanks to fair skies and nearly calm winds. this generally clear and quiet weather pattern is expected to continue right into the weekend... and it still looks like we stand a chance of getting a 100% cloud-free day, which is a rarity here at the foot of the dhauladars.

the next weather system to watch will be approaching by late sunday, increasing clouds a bit, and bringing in a little better chance of a shower.

a calm, quiet and 100% clear morning... humidity stands at 41%, and i've recorded an overnight low of 55.4F (13.0C) here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center.

HAPPY DIWALI... looks like it will be a nice one. we are entering what is normally the driest and most quiet time of the year, weatherwise, here in the dharamsala area. moisture in all levels of the atmosphere is low, and winds in the mid-levels and aloft are generally from the west and northwest. while there are always a few wiggles and jiggles in the jetstream flow that could set off an isolated mountain shower, there are no major disturbances in sight, and that should allow fair weather to dominate for several days.

sun lovers should be satisfied, and so should those who are not looking forward to the eventual advance of colder air... as temps should be steady in this rather mild range right into the weekend at least.

WEDNESDAY: sunny... with just a few clouds over the mountains by mid-day.
high: 21C (69F)

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

we have mostly clear skies at sunset this evening. it's been a dry day, with a high temp of 67.3F (19.6F), and humidity remaining very close to 40%.

the term "partly cloudy" was invented for days such as this... there has been plenty of sunshine to go around, but quite a few patches of clouds difting through as well. there were even one or two isolated showers up towards lahaul and spiti during the maximum heating period of the early to mid-afternoon hours. there has been a weak upper-level disturbance drifting through during the past 12 hours or so, and that's the only thing that kept us from wall-to-wall sunshine.

the most consistently dry and calm airmass in many months is settling in now, thanks to a moderate northwesterly flow throughout the middle and upper atmosphere. this pattern will present us with lots of sunshine, low humidity, and seasonably cool to mild temperatures through the end of the week. classic october... toasty in the direct mid-day sun, but chilly at night. layers required!

TUESDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 13C (55F)

WEDNESDAY: sunny skies, with just a few afternoon clouds over the mountains.
high: 21C (69F)

sunshine and a few patchy clouds this morning... with a humidity reading of just 36%. i recorded an overnight low temp of 55.9F (13.3C).

there is one more minor circulation and little pocket of energy in the upper atmosphere which will drift across northern india today. it should go virtually unnoticed... but may be able to trigger one or two isolated showers over the mountains this afternoon.

otherwise... a fair and quiet weather pattern will prevail through the week, and into the weekend even. that means plenty of sun by day, and stars by night, along with pleasant autumn temperatures and low humidity. according to my records, 24 april was the last day of 100% sunshine, without even any PM cumulus clouds over the mountains... maybe we have a shot at such a day later this week...?

TUESDAY: sun and a few clouds. (perhaps an isolated PM thundershower over the mountains)
high: 21C (69F)

Monday, October 24, 2011

a picture perfect evening in progress, after a beautiful day. other than a moderate build-up of clouds over the dhauladars from late morning to late afternoon, we had sunny skies. the high temp reached exactly 68F (20C), while humidity hovered between 40-50% for most of the day.

in the wake of our weekend storm system, things have been nice and calm and quiet today. according to the satellite perspective, there were only one or two isolated showers (most likely snow) over some of the higher himalayan peaks this afternoon, otherwise it appears that another phase of drier weather has settled in for a while. trekkers may be interested in checking out the comments section of this morning's post (below) for some up-to-date information from a regular weathergeek reader concerning conditions on the passes.

sunshine will dominate for the remainder of the week... but please continue to be aware that spotty shower development could occur in the mountains, despite the fair weather pattern. temperatures have now settled to near normal, especially during the nights and early mornings, but the sun will keep things quite pleasant during the daytime.

MONDAY NIGHT: clear and cool.
low: 13C (55F)

TUESDAY: morning sunshine, with a few mountain clouds during the afternoon.
high: 20C (68F)

there is no trace of clouds at sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 47%. my overnight low temp has been 54.1F (12.3C)... and in case you missed it on the last couple of posts, yesterday's rainfall amounted to 0.61" (1.5cm).

our weekend winter-like storm is pretty much out of the picture now... but there may still be enough energy aloft and instability in the atmosphere to stir up a thundershower or two around the area this afternoon. the mountains of himachal pradesh and jammu & kashmir were hit with the first significant snowfall of the season over the past 48-72 hours. if you're going to be trekking or traveling anywhere to the north, please check ahead to find out if passes are navigable... last night i read that rotang was at least temporarily closed, and i'm sure there are other inaccessible passes at the moment.

after today, the rest of the week is looking very nice. we should see lots of sunshine, low humidity and near normal late october temperatures. it has obviously cooled off several degrees, making for some chilly nights and early mornings, but with the sunshine, daylight hours will remain rather comfortable.

MONDAY: sunny early, but becoming partly cloudy by mid-day. risk of a brief shower or thundershower during the PM.
high: 19C (67F)

Sunday, October 23, 2011

the stars are out tonight, after a very interesting and active day. the upper-level disturbance which has been threatening northern india for the past few days finally unloaded on us starting late this morning, with a respectable amount of rain (the most we've received this month), along with some intense thunder and lightning during the very early part of the afternoon. i experienced a direct lightning strike at my place, which was a first, and a bit unsettling to say the least.

the mountains have been picking up some light snowfall since thursday, but today, there were some heavy snowfall totals over much of the higher elevations of kashmir and the nothern half of himachal pradesh. apparently rotang pass is closed (for the moment), and there are reports of up to a foot of snow on many passes to our north. obviously, colder, wintry air has made an appearance, for the first time this season.

a dramatic turn to nicer weather is in our immediate future, however, as drier air flows in behind this vigorous weather system. expect an increasing amount of sunshine day by day as we progress through the coming week... good news for those in town for the teachings, for trekking, or for diwali celebrations...

1:51pm... total rainfall is now 0.60" (1.5cm). my temperature is currently 54.7F (12.6C). there was a direct lightning hit at my house just after noon, which totally melted/shrivelled my umbrella, which had been just outside my door on the terrace. never seen anything like that before...

11:20am... i have 0.45" (1.1cm) of rainfall at the top of mcleod ganj on tushita road. it rained pretty much continuously from 10:00am onwards, with a period of moderate to heavy rain around 11:00am that delivered the bulk of the amount.

this is the first measurable rainfall (according to my records) in just over three weeks. it was needed, but the timing was bad, considering the teachings going on this morning.

the temperature dipped to 54F (12.2C) during the heavier rain, but has now rebounded a bit.

it will be interesting to see how much snow is up on the mountains when the sky clears.!

we have mostly cloudy skies this morning, after a round of very gusty winds, very light showers, and a rumble or two of thunder between roughly 3:00 and 4:00am. once again, the rainfall wasn't enough to measure, at least here in upper mcleod ganj just below the mountaineering center. i recorded an overnight low temp of 59F (15C).

the center of our upper-level disturbance is still well to the northwest, over northern pakistan, and there is a large area of thick cloud cover and embedded thundershowers associated with it. computer model guidance (and satellite trends) continue to keep the bulk of the stormy weather across kashmir and extreme northern himachal, as this system sweeps through during the coming 24 hours.

periods of rain and snow are likely in the mountains... today is not going to be a very good day for trekkers, climbers and campers above triund and up to the dhauladar passes. down here in mcleod, i still think we could get a shot at a period of showers and/or thunderstorms, but i'll be surprised if the rainfall is very significant. will try to post updates if things turn nasty!

the situation will improve as the week goes on, with increasing sunshine, low humidity and pleasant fall temperatures.

SUNDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a period of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm. gusty winds at times.
high: 19C (67F)

Saturday, October 22, 2011

it is partly to mostly cloudy across the area at sunset. although there was some thunder during the mid-afternoon, and a fresh dusting of snow up on the mountain peaks, i'm not aware of any raindrops in the immediate mcleod ganj area. i recorded a high temp of 68.9F (20.5C) during the late morning, before the clouds thickened up.

the first real "winter-like" storm of the season is moving through the western himalayas this evening. satellite pics indicate widespread thundershowers, which likely contain both rain and snow, depending on elevation, across northern pakistan into kashmir and mainly northern himachal pradesh. this storm system will slowly work its way through northern india during the coming 24-36 hours, but it still appears that the most signficant rain and snowfall is going to remain just to our north.

here in mcleod, i think our best window of opportunity for a round of thundershowers would be from late tonight through sunday evening. snow has fallen on the dhauladars the past couple of afternoons, and i think there will be yet another round or two (at least) of accumulating snowfall on the passes and peaks. if you have plans to venture above triund on sunday, be prepared!

by monday, we'll start another trend toward dry and sunny weather.... humidity will drop even lower than it has been during this past week.

it's another perfectly clear morning. the humidity stands at a comfortable 47%, and we've had an overnight low temp of 56.8F (13.8C), which is the coolest i've recorded this month. there has been a trace of rainfall in the past 24 hours, thanks to the brief thundershower late yesterday afternoon.

satellite pics this morning show clusters of cloudiness hovering to our north and west, in association with an upper-level disturbance over northern pakistan. most of the energy associated with this system will remain to our north, which means the best chance of significant rain and snowfall will be across kashmir and perhaps a few of the mountain ranges and valleys of extreme northern himachal pradesh. this system has been developing fairly consistently this week, so our suspicions that we will be left out of the majority of the precipitation are being confirmed, so far.

still, be aware that a period or two of showers, or perhaps and thunderstorm, could occur in our neighborhood over the weekend, and be prepared for sudden changes... especially during the afternoon and evening hours. the dhauladars could pick up a decent coating of snow by late sunday! temperatures have cooled off a bit during the past 12-18 hours... and i think we can expect generally cooler weather to last for the next few days.

SATURDAY: sunshine early, with increasing clouds by noon. chance of a shower or thundershower in the area during the PM. cooler.
high: 19C (67F)

Friday, October 21, 2011

the southwestern sky is mainly clear at sunset this evening, but there are lots of clouds over the mountains to the north and east. we had a brief thundershower, at least in the upper part of town, between 4:30 and 5:00pm, but it didn't produce enough rain to overcome the pollen, dust and cobwebs in my rain gauge. i recorded a high temp of 69.8F (21.0C) this afternoon.

according to my records, this afternoon's raindrops were the first in 12 days, and we're now going on 20 days since there has been enough rain to measure. there was also a fresh dusting of snow on the peaks just above town this afternoon. the weather pattern is changing, and will be more active than it's been in a few weeks as we progress through the weekend. right now, it appears that the most significant rain and snow will remain to our north, over kashmir, and perhaps extreme northern parts of himachal, but scattered rain and snow showers, along with some thunder and small hail, are likely in the mountains through sunday.

it still looks like we'll escape the best chances for significant rainfall here in mcleod ganj, but a couple of periods of thundershowers are still a good bet during the coming 48 hours or so. if we do catch a decent bout of rain, temperatures are going to cool off considerably...

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly cloudy skies with a chance of a period of showers or a thunderstorm moving through.
low: 14C (58F)

SATURDAY: a mix of clouds and some sunshine. cooler, with a thundershower possible.
high: 19C (67F)

we have clear skies at the break of dawn this morning. the humidity is a low low 39%, and our overnight low temp has been 59F (15C).

i've now logged 19 days in a row without measurable rainfall... and as i dug through records since the start of 2011, i see that we've had no other such streak of dry weather this entire year. the closest i can find is 11 days without measurable rain back at the end of april. so... things have definitely dramatically changed this month, and now we find ourselves in a position where some rainfall would actually be happily welcomed.

the overall weather pattern will be quite complex during the next several days, with a very active upper-air pattern bringing in a few disturbances. obviously, moisture is extremely limited, so it remains doubtful that we'll get much in the way of significant rainfall here in mcleod ganj... stay tuned for updates/changes on that. however, it still appears that between now and sunday, there could be at least a couple of rounds of rain and snow showers, with thunder and hail as well, higher up in the mountains. as i've been mentioning repeatedly, be prepared for anything if you'll be trekking, camping or crossing passes this weekend!

FRIDAY: partly cloudy skies. just a slight chance of a shower or thundershower, mainly in the PM.
high: 21C (69F)

Thursday, October 20, 2011

it is partly cloudy at sunset this evening. humidity today remained in the range of 40-50%, and i recorded an afternoon high temp of 70.7F (21.5C).

although we didn't catch any of the action, showers and thunderstorms were scattered this afternoon across much of the western himalayan region... you may have noticed the huge billowing cumulonimbus clouds above the mountains to our north and east. this development was in response to the first in a series of upper-level disturbances that will continue to move across northern india between now and sunday. occasional rain and snow showers with thunder and hail are likely in the higher elevations over the weekend... but our chances of precipitation here in the immediate mcleod ganj area are not as good.

still, be aware that we could get hit with a period of showers and/or thunderstorms once or twice over the course of the next three days. and if you plan to be higher up in the mountains, absolutely be prepared for sudden storms with rain, snow and hail, along with a rapid turn to colder temperatures. temps here in mcleod and vicinity will be cooling off as well, as we progress through the weekend...

we have a few clouds around the area this morning just before sunrise, with a humidity reading of 44%. the overnight low has been 59.0F (15.0C) here at the top of mcleod ganj.

a rather complex weather pattern is developing just to our west and north, and will bring varying degrees of changes to the western himalayan region during the next few days. jetstream winds are increasing, and will bring in a series of upper-level disturbances between now and early next week. temperatures in all levels of the atmosphere will be cooling... especially above 3500m (11,500ft), and clouds will be on the increase.

it remains to be seen whether we'll be able to get any significant rainfall here in the immediate area... my gut instinct at this point is NO. but that may not be the case in the higher elevations of himachal pradesh and kashmir, where there could be some periods of moderate rain and snow showers. this weekend will be a bit precarious in the mountains, so be prepared if you plan to be trekking, crossing higher passes, and camping out!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

just another picture perfect sunset in progress here in himalayan paradise. sunshine was easy to come by once again today, with humidity generally in the 40-50% range. i recorded a high temp of 71.8F (22.1C)... a solid 2C/4F above normal for this time of year.

starting tomorrow, our weather pattern, at least in the upper atmosphere, is going to begin shifting again. cooler air will flow in aloft, with some cooler air expected here at our elevation as well, as we move toward the weekend. the computer models are showing some scattered light precipitation breaking out by late thursday or friday, but we'll have to see whether that actually materializes. a nice rainfall would be very nice indeed, after nearly three weeks with hardly a drop. be prepared for a good chance of snow showers in the mountains above about 3200m (11,000ft).

some of the sunshine we've been relishing for the past several days will be sacrificed with the arrival of this disturbance... and it appears things may remain rather unsettled into the first part of next week.

my outdoor humidity reading is the lowest of the season this morning at 38%, and we have 100% clear skies at sunrise. the overnight low temperature has been a very mild 61.5F (16.4C).

we remain in the midst of a string of very beautiful days... featuring lots of sunshine, lower humidity, and pleasantly mild temperatures. but already, just less than a month after the monsoon rains fizzled out, there is plenty of talk around town about water problems beginning to develop. other than a couple of showers at the very beginning of october, the month has been almost totally dry.

there is a changing weather pattern expected as we approach the weeked, however, and that may bring us at least some scattered shower action. don't expect much out of it though... i'd be surprised if we can get anything more than about a 1/4" - 1/3" (6-8mm). more likely, this system will allow temperatures to drop another notch, and get us closer to normal for this time of year.

WEDNESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant.
high: 22C (71F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy and mild.
low: 16C (60F)

THURSDAY: sunshine giving way to increasing clouds. risk of a shower in the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

the few clouds over the mountains today are rapidly disappearing, leaving us with almost totally clear skies as we approach sunset. it was a bit warmer than it's been in a few days... i recorded a high temp of 71.2F (21.8C) in the upper part of mcleod ganj. humidity fluctuated in the 48-58% range.

satellite pics this evening show that there have been a couple of isolated thundershowers in the higher elevations of northern and eastern himachal this afternoon, but by and large, it has been smooth sailing once again across north india and the western himalayan region. temperatures continue to run a bit above normal over a wide area, as we await a turn to slightly cooler air by the latter part of the week.

an increasingly active and disturbed flow in the upper atmosphere is set to develop in the next few days, which may lead to a better chance of a few showers in our neighborhood. how quickly the tide can turn... we've now had more than two weeks without measurable rainfall, so a nice shower would be welcome to settle the remaining pollen in the air, and contribute to our dwindling water supply. at the moment, nothing particularly exciting is expected, but stay tuned as we approach the weekend...

the sky is stunningly clear just before sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 52%. current satellite pics show totally clear skies over a massive area, all the way from the persian gulf to central tibet... which is actually quite normal for the season.

we're in the midst of a nice string of mainly sunny days, with pleasant autumn temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. this is what october in mcleod ganj is famous for... and why many people agree that this is the nicest time of year.

there are going to be some changes coming during the latter part of the week, but it remains to be seen how dramatic, or even noticeable they will be. the flow in the upper atmosphere is expected to become quite active, and there will be some significant cooling, some of which will work itself down to our elevation. computer models are showing at least some light precipitation developing in the western himalayas from thursday through the weekend, but it looks like it might be hard to shake loose anything more than a few scattered showers. of course we're now getting to the point where even a weak weather system can bring at least a dusting of snow to the mountains (above 3200m/11000ft)...

Monday, October 17, 2011

it looks like the sun will have very little competition as it rises over the mountains in a few minutes from now. the humidity reading early this morning is 50%, and i've recorded a low temp of 59.5F (15.3C).

our recent calm and quiet mid-october weather pattern will likely continue for another few days at least. although there are some minor disturbances drifting through in the upper-atmosphere, so far, there has been very little in the way of shower development... even in the mountains. of course that could change on any given afternoon, so just continue to be prepared for the possibility of a quick shower/thundershower if you are planning to venture to higher elevations.

no dramatic changes in temperature are expected... although we'll continue with a general cooling trend as we head toward the weekend. still watching a potentially stronger storm system for the latter part of the week, which could increase shower chances. more on that as the week progresses...

Sunday, October 16, 2011

yet another picture-perfect evening in progress, with the setting sun briefly turning the mountains surreal shades of orange and pink. there have been scattered cumulus clouds today, mainly in the vicinity of the mountains, but the sunshine has again been our dominant weather feature.

this is the time of year when you can see people in t-shirts and shorts walking along the street next to others in fleeces, scarves and light jackets. in this temperature range, there seems to be a lot of subjectivity as to the definitions of "warm", "cool", "pleasant", and "comfortable".! suffice it to say, we are enjoying the time of year when it is definitely not too hot, nor is it too cold. that's why MILD might be the best description.

we'll be basically on autopilot for a few days, it appears, with generally the same pattern of sunshine with a few patches and/or periods of clouds from time to time, mainly along the mountains. the atmosphere, at all levels, is gradually cooling, but there is very little moisture available, and no significant storm systems in sight, so things should remain rather calm and quiet.

computer models are increasing the potential for some shower activity by thursday with the approach of the next upper-level disturbance, so that is one thing to keep an eye on...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear.
low: 14C (58F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, with a few clouds around during the afternoon.
high: 21C (69F)

it is partly cloudy at sunrise this morning... just a few scruffy-looking cumulus clouds drifting along the mountains. i've recorded a low temp of 59F (15C) for the third straight day. i know there have been pockets of cooler air around the area, as low as 52-54F (11-12C) in spots. my current humidity reading is 60%.

there don't appear to be any major changes afoot, at least for the next few days. there is a fairly strong westerly flow in the upper-atmosphere that will continue all week, which will carry through occasional minor disturbances. our skies will stay generally in the sunny to partly cloudy category, but be aware that an isolated shower or thundershower could pop up one of these afternoons, mainly over the mountains. by the end of the week, there are signs of a stronger system that could stir up measurable rainfall across a more widespread area.

temperatures, although still very comfortable for this time of year, should continue their slow and gradual descent, as we progress through the coming week...

SUNDAY: sunny to partly cloudy skies. pleasant temps.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear.
low: 15C (59F)

MONDAY: mostly sunny in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: lots of sunshine... just a few clouds.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: partly sunny and slightly cooler.
high: 19C (67F)

THURSDAY: a mix of clouds and some sun, with an increasing chance of a shower or thundershower.
high: 19C (67F)

Saturday, October 15, 2011

this just may have been the nicest day we've had for months... in terms of sunshine, low humidity and mild temperatures. apart from a very feeble collection of clouds over the mountains for a few hours between late morning and late afternoon, it has been sunny. the high temp reached 69.1F (20.6C), and humidity has hovered right around 50% for most of the day.

nearly all of the western himalayan region was very close to being cloud-free today... from the satellite perspective, it was the clearest day i've seen during this post-monsoon season. winds throughout all levels of the atmosphere are generally from the west, and that is keeping dry and stable air in control. as we all know, there is always at least a slight chance of an afternoon thundershower developing somewhere in the vicinity of the dhauladars, apart from during the dead of winter... but otherwise, we should continue to see bright autumn sunshine into the middle of the coming week.

by wednesday night and thursday, we will see a slight increase in moisture in advance of the next upper-level weather system, which could bring us a little better chance of some raindrops. the general temperature trend will be downward, but it will still remain quite pleasant for this time of year...

our sunrise sky is 100% clear this morning, with a humidity reading of 63% to start the day. the overnight low has been 59.0F (15.0C), with no precipitation recorded.

it might be hard to believe, considering all the afternoon and evening fog we were dealing with during the first week of the month... but we've barely had measurable rainfall during october. it is interesting how fast things can turn around... from averaging almost an inch of rain a day back in the first half of september, to being basically bone dry during the first half of october.!

the upper-level disturbance drifting through recently has failed to stir up as much as even a random mountain shower thus far... evidence of how dry the air has become now, in most layers of the atmosphere. of course there is always the risk of an isolated thundershower over the mountains during the afternoon hours... but apart from that, we should continue to enjoy a large percentage of sunshine on a daily basis.

temperatures have cooled ever-so-slightly in the past couple of days, but it is still a couple of degrees (C) warmer than it normally is at this time of the year. i haven't even unpacked my jackets yet!?!

SATURDAY: a sunny morning. partly cloudy in the afternoon, with a slight chance of a thundershower.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: mostly clear skies.
low: 14C (58F)

SUNDAY: sunny in the morning, with a few clouds in the PM.
high: 21C (70F)

Friday, October 14, 2011

we're enjoying sunny skies this evening, at the end of what has turned out to be a very nice day. the high temp on tushita road just below the mountaineering center reached 70.2F (21.2C) early this afternoon. humidity has been steadily dropping all day... to near 50% this evening.

despite the moderate build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon, there has been no shower or thunderstorm development so far today. an upper-level disturbance is moving through the area right now, but despite the "spin" in the upper atmosphere, and the dynamic energy associated with it, there is just not enough moisture available to get anything going. there's still a slight chance of a passing shower or brief bit of thunder overnight, and again saturday afternoon, but it doesn't look like much to get concerned about.

the next batch of drier air is already filtering into the area, which will keep humidity as low or lower than we've seen so far this season... and that should continue well into the new week. temperatures will drop slightly, but should remain a shade above normal for the middle of october. other than afternoon mountain clouds, sunshine should be easy to come by for at least a few days...

FRIDAY NIGHT: other than a slight risk of a brief thundershower overnight, skies should be mostly clear.
low: 14C (58F)

the sky is clear at sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 70%. our overnight/early morning temps are cooler than they've been for several days. i recorded a low of 59.0F (15.0C).

satellite pics this morning show that the veil of mid- and high clouds that were over himachal pradesh for most of yesterday have shifted east into uttarakhand. the center of the upper-level disturbance we've been watching recently is over northern pakistan, and will continue to slide southeastward today and saturday. as this system passes by, it has the potential to destabilize the atmosphere enough to stir up a round or two of showers and thunderstorms... especially from this afternoon into tonight. moisture is very limited, so rain chances aren't great. just be aware of the possibility, especially if you're headed into the mountains.

as this disturbance moves by, it will drag a batch of dry air from central asia into northern india, which will drop our humidity to the lowest levels we've seen during these post-monsoon weeks. generally sunny and dry weather should prevail into next week...

FRIDAY: sunshine early, with increasing clouds and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

Thursday, October 13, 2011

a gorgeous sunset is in progress... after a day when clouds claimed dominance over the sunshine. we had a high temp of only 68.4F (20.2C), and the humdity was higher today, ranging from 65-80% for most of the day.

we're still keeping an eye on a fairly vigorous upper-level disturbance that will swing from northern afghanistan through northern india during the coming 36-48 hours. mainly mid- and high clouds have developed ahead of this system, although we did get a period of lower, thicker clouds for a couple of hours this afternoon as well. computer models continue to stubbornly refuse to show any significant rain development as this system pivots through here... but i think it's wise to be prepared for the potential of a period of showers and/or thunderstorms between tonight and saturday afternoon.

our humidity levels will again plummet in the wake of this disturbance, so we should see a return to bright sunshine and drier air by the latter half of the weekend. no significant change in temperatures is expected... they will continue to depend almost entirely on the amount of sunshine available. we'll remain in that zone where switching from t-shirts to fleeces a few times a day might be necessary...

scattered high clouds are drifting through the area early this morning, with a humidity reading of 68%. the overnight low has been 61.2F (16.2C).

a rather strong area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is headed our way, and will sweep through northern india tomorrow into early saturday. in advance of this system, some mid and high clouds have been flowing northward. this scenario is going to limit our sunshine for the next couple of days, and also give us at least a mentionable chance of a period or two of showers and thunderstorms... most likely on friday and friday night. actually, there is very little surface moisture available for this system to take advantage of, so rain chances are only moderate at best at this point.

a burst of very dry air from central asia will flow into the area behind this disturbance over the weekend... which should return us to generally sunny skies as we head into next week.

on another note... although there is still a light dusting of pine pollen floating around, the worst of it appears to be over...

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

it is partly cloudy this evening just before sunset. the humidity was a bit higher today (around 65%), and that contributed to the development of more cloudiness during the afternoon than we saw yesterday. still, there was enough sunshine to boost our mid-day high temp to 72.0F (22.2C). it was toasty warm in the sunshine, but chilly under the occasional clouds.

our mid- and upper-level winds are coming from the south today, in advance of a deep trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere that will be pivoting through northern india as we approach the weekend. this system is trying hard to muster up some moisture to work with, as evidenced by our slightly higher humidity and increased cloud cover this afternoon. still... the limited available moisture will keep us from any significant rain and thunderstorm action. right now, i'd say we have about a 40-50% chance of getting a period of measurable rain (with thunder) sometime between friday and late saturday. stay tuned to see if we need to make an adjustment on that probability.

our humidity will drop another notch over the weekend, as nearly bone-dry central asian air pours into the western himalaya. temperatures will cool off slightly, but there is still no evidence of a dramatic turn to significantly colder mid-autumn weather...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies. rather mild for an october night.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: mostly sunny until late morning, then partly to mostly cloudy during the afternoon.
high: 22C (72F)

FRIDAY: partly sunny skies, with a chance of a period of showers or a thunderstorm. gusty winds possible.
high: 22C (72F)

our sky is totally clear at sunrise this morning. humidity is a bit higher than the past few mornings, at 68%, and we've had an overnight low temp of 62.2F (16.8C).

it's amazing that we've been able to hang on to this mild weather for so long this year. but really, very little about the past month has been normal. temperatures are still running about 5-6F (2-3C) above average for mid-october, and should remain that way into the weekend.

the upper-air pattern is shifting around right now, in advance of an upper-level disturbance that will move through here on friday and saturday. there is virually no moisture for this system to work with, however, so any shower and thunderstorm activity will be extremely limited. the main thing that will happen as it goes by, is that the next batch of even drier central asian air will sweep in behind it... lowering our humidity even more.

this is an excellent time to be out enjoying the mountains... just remember that even during quiet weather patterns, things can change rapidly above 2700m (9000ft). stay aware and prepared.

WEDNESDAY: full sunshine this morning, with a few clouds around by afternoon. nice temps, again.
high: 23C (74F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: clear to partly cloudy skies.
low: 17C (62F)

THURSDAY: a mix of sunshine and some high clouds. still mild.
high: 23C (73F)

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

we're in the midst of a classic mcleod ganj october evening... with almost 100% clear skies allowing us to watch the setting sun in the west, and the rising full moon to the east over the dhauladars. it doesn't get much nicer than this. the build-up of clouds over the mountains this afternoon was less pronounced than it has been the last couple of days... allowing the autumn sunshine to boost our high temp up to 73.8F (23.2C). at one point late this morning, the humidity dropped to 48%, which is the lowest i've seen this season.

there doesn't appear to be too much on the way to upset this beautiful, sunny and mild weather pattern. our airmass has now totally rid itself of the stale tropical moisture that overstayed its welcome this year, and the trend should be toward lower and lower moisture content in the air as we head towards mid-month.

there actually is a fairly potent-looking upper-level disturbance scheduled to push through our area during the first part of the weekend, but it will be moisture-starved, and shouldn't bring much in the way of wet and stormy weather. at most, we could see a random shower and/or thunderstorm or two from friday into saturday afternoon... but, as usual, if you have plans to be hiking, trekking, camping, etc, in the mountains, make arrangements to keep yourself warm and dry if necessary.

*update @ 730pm... a southerly flow of air is developing in the upper atmosphere this evening, and clouds are increasing along the southwestern slopes of the dhauladars... have added a risk of a thundershower overnight, just as a precaution.

it's another beautiful morning, with clear skies, mild temperatures, and a humidity reading of 51%. the overnight low has been 62.4F (16.9C).

we've finally settled into our quiet autumn weather pattern, with sunshine as the dominant force. humidity levels remain comfortable and will likely fall further by the weekend, while temperatures are continuing to run a few degrees above normal for this time of year. apart from the pine tree pollen which is coating everything in yellow, and aggravating those with allergies, we're in great shape.

there is a rather strong upper-level disturbance on its way by friday... but it appears that it will have very little moisture to work with, so other than bringing in some slightly cooler and even drier air, the chance of significant rainfall looks very small at this point.

there was a little thunder over the mountains yesterday around 2pm... so please keep in mind that even during a fair weather pattern like this, a quick afternoon thundershower can pop up with little notice. its always good to be prepared for anything, any time of the year if you are venturing uphill...

TUESDAY: sunny skies this morning, with a few clouds during the PM. unseasonably warm.
high: 23C (74F)

Monday, October 10, 2011

a nearly full moon is rising over the dhauladars as sunset approaches this evening. skies are mostly clear, after a day featuring lots of sunshine, apart from a few hours of clouds (and even a rumble or two of thunder around 2pm) over the mountains. the high temp reached 72.9F (22.7C), with humdity right around 55% for much of the day.

despite all the clouds and fog that hung around during the first 7-8 days of this month, i've only had 0.01" (less than 1mm) of rain up here just below the mountaineering center on tushita road. and it looks like significant rainfall is going to be hard to come by for the next several days at least. a very stable weather pattern will prevail until the end of the week, which should keep us in line for more sunshine. by the weekend, there is going to be a rather dynamic upper-level disturbance swinging through here... but ironically, this time... the atmosphere should be nearly bone dry, which will make it hard to squeeze out much in the way of shower and thunderstorm action. mostly, this disturbance will function as a transport system for more dry central asian air to flow into our neighborhood.

in case you haven't noticed, we are at the height of the pine pollen season... the yellow dust is everywhere, especially if you live in or near the forests above town. unfortunately for allergy sufferers, there won't be much improvement for at least a week or so...

we have crystal clear skies at sunrise this monday morning, with the humidity standing at 52%. it has been yet another mild night for this time of year, with a low temp of 62.2F (16.8C).

it has been a long time in coming, but it appears that we've finally shaken the post-monsoon hangover that held us in its grip for an extra couple of weeks this season. although the pattern in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere had been cooperating since the third week of september, the lowest layers were still frequently saturated with moisture here along the front ranges of the mountains... which led to the development of thick clouds and fog nearly every afternoon and evening.

i'll have to admit i'm paranoid about a relapse, but there doesn't really seem to be much hard data to support that. humidity levels have dropped down to where they should be this time of year (40-60% range), and the tap to tropical air has been replaced with a channel of drier air from the west and northwest. this points to a few days of nice sunshine for us, along with temperatures continuing to run above normal for mid-october.

we'll have to watch for a build-up of clouds over the mountains during the afternoon hours, and of course the ever-present threat of an isolated thundershower... but overall, quiet and stable weather should prevail...

Sunday, October 9, 2011

a classic october himalayan evening is in progress... with mostly clear skies and comfortably mild temperatures. apart from a build-up of clouds over the mountains from late morning into the late afternoon, there has been plenty of sunshine today. in fact, a greater percentage of sun than we've seen in one day since the middle of june. our high temp today was 73.6F (23.1C) -- the warmest since the 23rd of september, while the relative humidity held in the 50-55% range for most of the day.

the long-termers and locals i've talked to all agree... this year's post-monsoon period has been one of the most unusual in memory. the deep, genuine monsoon moisture pulled out of here nearly right on schedule, late on the 16th of september. but the stubborness of the lingering low-level moisture this year was very abnormal. we've been teased with several potential turns to nice autumn weather, but each time, ended up disappointed. this time it seems that our drier autumnal airmass has indeed taken control... as evidenced by the dramatic changes we've experienced during the past 48 hours or so.

despite the departure of the humidity and moisture, temperatures remain well above normal for the second week of october, so it it appears that we'll be able to enjoy the best of both worlds during the coming days...

SUNDAY NIGHT: mostly clear and mild.
low: 16C (61F)

MONDAY: sunshine in the morning. partly cloudy in the afternoon. rather warm for october.
high: 23C (73F)

a perfect autumn morning is shaping up... skies are clear at sunrise, after a mild overnight low of 61.7F (16.5C). there was a brief shower last night around 9pm, but there has been nothing measurable in my rain gauge, not only in the past 24 hours but for the past one week. this morning's humidity reading is comfortable, at 55%.

our "cautious optimism" of the past several days seems to have been rewarded. the weak upper-level disturbance that has been passing through northern india since late friday has helped to chase most of the remaining moisture away, allowing much drier air from the northwest to filter in, in its wake. normally, this occurs by the last week of september, but this year we've had to exercise unprecedented patience!

there have been scattered thunderstorms in the mountains during the last two afternoons, but here in the immediate dharamsala area, we didn't catch much of the action... just some thunder on friday afternoon, and that brief shower last night. there may still be enough instability this afternoon to stir up a passing thundershower, so continue to be prepared for that, especially if you have plans to be hiking and trekking.

the week ahead is looking very nice... with more consistent sunshine than we've had all season, comfortable humidity levels, and temperatures which should remain warmer than normal for october. enjoy...

SUNDAY: lots of morning sunshine. becoming partly cloudy by afternoon, with a chance of a passing thundershower.
high: 22C (72F)

Saturday, October 8, 2011

scattered thunderstorms are pounding many of the mountain ranges from kashmir through himachal into uttarakhand this evening, but once again, we've been spared. it has been a very nice day, compared to most during this post-monsoon period... sunshine for several hours contributed to a high temp of 71.6F (22.0C), and the humidity reading held in the 50-60% range... a massive leap forward.

our current upper-level disturbance is centered over southern kashmir, but is rather weak, and will weaken further overnight. still, it is not out of the question that we could get a thunderstorm moving through here tonight, with another chance of an isolated thundershower tomorrow. but really, the bigger news is the DRIER AIR that has been filtering in during the past 24 hours. it turns out that the computer models have been correct for a change... they have been pointing to this all week. humidity should remain much lower as we head into next week... so maybe, just maybe, our battle with the thick clouds and fog has finally come to an end for this year.

despite the reduction in moisture/humidity, there is no significantly cooler air flowing in... so we will continue to see temperatures that are actually quite a bit milder than they should be by the second week of october. with the increased percentage of sunshine, it will remain very pleasant...

SATURDAY NIGHT: still a chance of a period of showers or thunderstorms overnight. otherwise partly cloudy skies.
low: 16C (60F)

SUNDAY: a good amount of sunshine... but still a risk of a passing thundershower, mainly in the PM.
high: 22C (71F)

it is partly sunny early this morning... and rather mild. the overnight low was 62.3F (16.8C), and there has been no rainfall. the humidity reading at sunrise was 59%... the lowest early morning reading this season!

although we've still been getting a couple of hours of fairly thick clouds and some periods of fog during the mid-afternoon through the early evening hours during the past few days, there has been a significant drop in the average humidity levels recently. sunshine has been easier to come by, and moods are brightening.

a weak upper-level disturbance is drifting through northern india today, and will trigger more scattered showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. we narrowly escaped yesterday (we had thunder, but no rain), but today could be our turn. enjoy the periods of sun today, but be prepared to take shelter in case of a sudden storm. this upper-level system will fizzle out tomorrow... leaving us with what looks to be a stretch of nice weather as we head into next week.

SATURDAY: partly sunny skies. a good chance of a couple of showers and/or thunderstorms in the area this afternoon.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY NIGHT: potential for a thunderstorm or two until around midnight... otherwise partly cloudy.
low: 16C (60F)

SUNDAY: a good amount of sunshine. still a risk of a thundershower.
high: 21C (69F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY: sunny to partly cloudy. nice temps.
high: 21C (70F)

WEDNESDAY: sun and some high clouds. still mild for october.
high: 22C (71F)

Friday, October 7, 2011

a fine evening in progress, for a change. we have partly cloudy skies just a few minutes prior to sunset, after a period of late afternoon thunder that failed to deliver any rain. today's high temp was a comfortable 70.2F (21.2C) during the noon hour.

scattered thunderstorms have occurred all along the mountains from kashmir through himachal into uttarakhand late this afternoon and evening, but we were able to miss out on most of the action. our approaching upper level disturbance is now moving from pakistan into kashmir, and will weaken and flatten out as it passes through northern india over the weekend. keep in mind that we could get hit with a period of showers and/or thunderstorms anytime, but there will be more dry hours than wet ones between now and sunday.

late this morning, my outdoor humidity reading dropped to 54%, which is the lowest i've seen during this post-monsoon period. it is now looking more and more likely that the low-level moisture clinging to our hills since the monsoon's departure will be significantly diminishing, allowing a greater and greater percentage of sunshine as we get into the new week. not a certainty just yet, but confidence is on the rise...

thin, high clouds are streaming in from the west early this morning, which will dim the sun as it rises over the mountains shortly. the overnight low has been 61.7F (16.5C), and our humidity is currently 83%.

the upper-level disturbance we've been talking about and waiting for is moving into northern pakistan, and will make its way across northern india during the coming 48 hours or so. it isn't a very strong system, but with this moisture still in place, it won't take much dynamic energy to get a couple of rounds of thunderstorms going as we head into the weekend. be sure to be aware and prepared if you plan to be in the mountains away from shelter.

there is widespread consensus that drier air will be filtering in, as this system passes by. i'm still in a "believe it when i see it" mode, so it will be interesting to see if we will get to experience a significant change in the look and feel of our airmass once sunday rolls around. temperatures will continue to depend on sunshine... warm when it's shining, and on the chilly side during periods of thick clouds and/or thunderstorms.

FRIDAY: partly cloudy this morning, but becoming mostly cloudy by this afternoon, along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing.
high: 21C (70F)

FRIDAY NIGHT: partly to mostly cloudy with a risk of a period of thunderstorms.
low: 16C (60F)

Thursday, October 6, 2011

in the main square of mcleod ganj, the fog is very thick this evening... in stark contrast to the beautiful 100% sunny skies we enjoyed this morning until about 10:30am. that sunshine boosted our high temp to 70.0F (21.1C). rainfall as of the time of this writing has only amounted to a few sprinkles... much like the scenario of the last two or three days.

satellite pics this evening show scattered thunderstorms occurring well to our west and north, across pakistan and kashmir, while a couple of isolated thundershowers dot the mountain ranges across himachal and uttarakhand. once again, sunshine is abundant throughout northern india, away from the mountains.

those thunderstorms to our northwest are associated with an approaching upper-level disturbance which will begin to dominate our weather pattern as we move into the weekend. it will do two things. 1) the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, especially tomorrow and saturday, and 2) drier mountain air will be pulled down into our neighborhood as it passes, by sunday. my faith in computer model guidance is at an all-time low, based on its failure to accurately diagnose the lingering low-level moisture during this post-monsoon period... but still, there are hopeful signs that we'll see a significant drop in humidity over the weekend.

if you plan to be hiking or overnighting in the mountains during the next few days, be prepared for rapid changes, which could include sudden thunderstorms with hail, and sharply colder temperatures. down here at our elevation, temperatures will remain dependent on the clouds vs. sun battle... pleasantly warm in the sunshine, but suddenly chilly during bouts of fog and/or showers.

skies are mostly clear this morning just before sunrise. the overnight low has been a comfortably cool 61.0F (16.1C), with the humidity remaining rather high at 88%. there has been just a trace of rainfall in the past 24 hours, and here on tushita road just below the mountaineering center, only 0.02" (0.5mm) of rain in the past five days.

showers have been extremely hit-and-miss since saturday. there have been some pretty good dowpours during the afternoons/evenings at points mainly south and east of the immediate mcleod ganj area, but very little elsewhere. the clouds and fog have been variable as well. there have been periods of thick fog that rival anything we see even at the height of monsoon season, but nice periods of sunshine as well, which can temporarily lift our spirits.

there do appear to be some interesting changes just ahead, which offer hope for moving beyond this year's particularly gloomy post-monsoon period. an upper-level disturbance is set to move in from the west during the first part of the weekend. it will temporarily increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms, but will also likely usher in a batch of considerably drier air in its wake. all the available computer model guidance is pointing at humidity dropping all the way down toward 50% by late saturday and sunday, which would be the driest of the season, if it pans out.

i know we are all kind of past the point of doubtful/cynical about any real, genuine, lasting turn to nicer weather this year... but we can at least be cautiously optimistic.

THURSDAY: sunshine early... then partly to mostly cloudy skies with some patchy fog possible. a thundershower or two around the area during the PM.
high: 22C (71F)