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Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Bracket Breakdown

1 Illinois: If they do not completely fall off and lose out, the Illini have locked up a #1 seed.16 Alabama A&M-Monmouth: What a way to celebrate making the NCAA Tournament-- playing Illinois.

8 LSU: On the rise after beating Florida and Mississippi State. Still have a chance to win SEC West Division title.9 Stanford: With win over UCLA, clearly the Pac-10’s third team in. Dan Grunfeld’s injury not affecting Cardinal yet.

5 Connecticut: Playing some of the best ball in country; Charlie Villanueva developing into go-to-guy.12 Virginia Tech: If committee ignores RPI, the Hokies are in. Good idea to finish with winning record in the ACC.

4 Louisville: What’s up with the Cardinals? Struggling since the Memphis game; Charlotte on their heels in C-USA.13 Holy Cross: Patriot League leaders on wrong end of at-large discussion if they lose in conference tournament.

6 Oklahoma: Bounced back after losing streak; Andrew Lavender’s full court lay-up best moment of Big 12 season.11 Vermont: Loss to Nevada hurts at-large chances; need to win America East tournament to feel safe.3 Duke: Win vs. Wake cements their spot as a national title contender; JJ Redick making case for player of the year.14 Oral Roberts: Mid-Continent leaders could be a sleeper candidate to pull off a first round upset.7 Pacific: Victory over UTEP locks up NCAA Tournament bid should they lose in the Big West tournament.10 Memphis: One of the hottest teams in the country gets in if they finish third in the conference despite 100+ RPI.2 Kentucky: Destroyed Mississippi State after loss to South Carolina; need to win out to make case for a #1 seed.15 Niagara: Juan Mendez one of the most overlooked great players in the nation. Chance to shine in the Tournament.

1 Oklahoma State: Last #1 seed over Wake Forest and Arizona. #3 RPI and SOS gave them the nod.16 Tennessee Tech: OVC leader will have trouble winning conference tourney with so much parity within the league.8 DePaul: Couldn’t clinch a bid after losses to Marquette and Charlotte, but still in very good shape.9 Mississippi State: Need to start winning some games after loss to Kentucky. .500 record in SEC doesn’t cut it.5 Syracuse: On a bit of a losing skid after 0-2 week vs. Pitt and at BC. Fourth best profile in the Big East now.12 Minnesota: As a result of awful Bubble teams, Golden Gophers in this week. Easy schedule down the stretch.4 Washington: Probably should be higher; still disappointed by Oregon State loss last Sunday.13 Miami (Fl.): Last team in this week, lost big bubble game to Virginia Tech. Tough road to get in the Tournament.6 Texas Tech: Win over Kansas looking a bit worse after the Jayhawks’ week. Still a solid NCAA Tournament lock.11 Old Dominion: Decent at-large candidate should they not win the Colonial tournament. 25 wins if they win out.3 Gonzaga: No one talking about the Zags, but Adam Morrison and co. ready to make deep Tournament run.14 Davidson: One of four unbeaten conference teams. Tough to beat because of their extremely balanced scoring.7 Georgetown: Terrible loss to St. John’s hurts their resume. Need to go 2-1 down the stretch to feel safe.10 Miami (Ohio): Looked very good against Wichita St. Nice profile for at-large team if they don’t win MAC tourney.2 Wake Forest: Re-thinking my choice of them as a #2; profile reads a seed higher, but loss to Duke costs them.15 SE Louisiana: Southland champs usually merit play-in status, but their RPI slots them a seed higher this year.

1 North Carolina: Profile is fairly weak, but on-court play and the fact that they are ACC leaders give them #1 seed.16 Coppin State: I like their RPI, but their lack of a win outside of conference play keeps them facing top seed.8 Southern Illinois: Win at Kent State along with Wichita State’s losses makes Salukis obvious choice from MVC.9 George Washington: Starting to win games again, while their RPI and SOS continue to decline.

5 Wisconsin: They really haven’t done anything noteworthy this season, but their profile is that of a top 5 seed.12 Texas: Had them a seed or two higher, but due to bracket regulations, had to slide down a seed.

4 Pittsburgh: One of country’s hottest teams since loss to West Virginia. Sweep of Syracuse gives them #4 seed.13 UL-Lafayette: Took control of Sun Belt despite two losses to Denver. One of the best mid-majors this season.6 Cincinnati: All defeats have been at the hands of Tournament teams. No one wants to face Bearcats in March.11 UCLA: Being carried by their strong RPI, but continue to split each week. Big game at Notre Dame Sunday.3 Alabama: No one agrees with ‘Bama being this high, but I had them here last week, and they keep winning. 14 UW-Milwaukee: Weak at-large profile should they lose in Horizon tournament.

7 Maryland: Terps look terrible against unranked teams, while they look like a Sweet 16 contender against Duke.10 Notre Dame: Had them as an 8 or 9, but bracket rules forced me to knock them down a few notches.

2 Kansas: If not for #1 RPI and SOS, Jayhawks would be in trouble of falling to a #3 seed.15 Portland State: Big Sky leader has the profile of a #16 seed, but teams below them are even worse.

1 Boston College: Finally getting some respect after win over Syracuse. Lock for a #1 seed if season ended today.16 Gardner-Webb: Atlantic Sun leaders have led for over a month. But it won't matter unless they win tournament.8 Nevada: Win over Vermont and pending WAC title lock up bid. Playing for seeding the rest of the way.9 Georgia Tech: Weaker profile than some may think. Last year’s runner-up may miss Tournament completely.5 Charlotte: Flying under the radar currently, but could be a tough out in the Tournament because of their frontcourt.12 Wichita State: Went from a possible #6 seed to one of the last teams in. Need to win out to feel safe.

4 Utah: Snapped Air Force’s homecourt winning streak, but didn’t look terrific. One loss would drop them to #6 seed.13 St. Joseph’s: A-10 leaders have to win conference tournament to get in even with a one-loss conference record.6 Villanova: Basically a lock after the win over Pitt when you combine it with their very strong RPI.11 Iowa State: 7-game Big 12 winning streak merits movement from off the bubble to in the Tournament.

3 Michigan State: Getting no recognition with top teams in the country, but Spartans are playing great ball.14 Penn: Ivy leaders finally lost a game, but still have solid cushion for the rest of the season.

7 Florida: Loss to LSU doesn’t hurt at all, and should clinch a bid with a few easy games coming up.10 St. Mary’s: Seed hasn’t changed much in the past month and a half for the Gaels; still need to win out.

2 Arizona: Deserving look as a Final Four contender, as well as #1 seed possibility if top teams continue to lose.15 Winthrop: One of the best Big South teams ever, but won’t have any chance to show that in the Tournament.