Trump Takes the Lead—Can Hillary Take It Back?

For the first time this year, it looks as if Donald Trump has a solid polling lead over Hillary Clinton, although it’s still within the margin of error. That’s not surprising, since Hillary has been dropping steadily since the FBI’s James Comey said that Hillary was announcement that she was “extremely careless.” It would probably have been better for her if the investigation had dragged on—quietly.

Donald Trump got a bounce from the Republican National Convention, jumping out in front of Hillary Clinton in a new CNN/ORC International poll released Monday, conducted in the days following the party gathering.

In terms of favorability, Trump rose seven points, from 39 percent to 46 percent and he now enjoys a double-digit lead over Clinton on issues related to the economy and terrorism. As far being trustworthy, 43 percent said they would apply that label to the Manhattan businessman, up 5 points from before the convention, while 30 percent said the same of the former secretary of state. Elsewhere, 52 percent said Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than for personal gain, while 44 percent said the same of Clinton.

Donald Trump’s convention is over. But don’t count on a convention bounce. The sizable polling bump that typically follows four days of saturation media coverage probably isn’t coming.

Hillary Clinton is also unlikely to receive much of a bounce after Democrats’ gather next week in Philadelphia. The reason? Trump and Clinton are two of the most unpopular presidential nominees in recent electoral history, and voters’ mostly negative feelings about both of them are well-formed. That lends a level of stability to the race and means neither candidate is likely to bound out of the next two weeks with additional momentum, according to pollsters. . .

And there’s a sizable pool of voters who have unfavorable opinions of both candidates that are unlikely to be swayed by the traditional pageantry of either political convention: According to Gallup, about a quarter of Americans view both Trump and Clinton unfavorably.

That likely puts a ceiling on how much momentum the candidates can generate out of the conventions as they head into August.

In most years, candidates get about a 5-point “bounce.” Bill Clinton gained 16% in his week, during 1992. However, John Kerry and Mitt Romney actually lost a point, each, during their convention week. Here’s a chart showing who did well.

Now then, what about Mr. Trump? The Blaze says the bump could be “Yuge.”

Mark my words: This speech will put Trump even or ahead of Hillary in polls by Monday, when the Democratic convention begins.#RNCinCLE
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) July 22, 2016

According to an instant poll conducted by CNN/ORC, 57 percent of voters who watched Trump’s speech had a “very positive” reaction, while 18 percent said their reaction was “somewhat positive” and 24 percent said the address had a “negative effect.”. . .

Additionally, 73 percent of voters who watched the speech — most of whom are likely Republican — said the policies the GOP nominee proposed will send the U.S. in the “right direction” and only 24 percent said his proposals will push the nation in the “wrong direction.”

Of course, that’s a poll of people who actually watched the convention, mostly Trump partisans. But the Daily Caller also says people were turning to Trump even before the latest poll put him in the lead, as this weekend article shows.

Trump still trails Clinton in the [Reuters/Ipsos national poll published Thursday] at 36 percent to Clinton’s 40, but that gap narrowed drastically in July. The Reuters/Ipsos June poll reported Trump followed Clinton ten points, at 34 percent to 44 percent.

Due to the online nature of the poll, a traditional margin of error doesn’t apply according to Ipsos. Instead, Ipsos published a “credibility interval” of 2.9 percent, based on its own calculations of probability. That margin puts Trump within range of a lead in the poll.

There’s not yet enough evidence to come to firm conclusions about the size of Trump’s convention bounce, but the initial data suggests that a small-to-medium bounce is more likely than a large one. . .

First, there are three post-convention national polls, meaning that all of their interviews were conducted after Trump’s acceptance speech on Thursday night.

• A RABA Research poll, conducted on Friday, shows Clinton 5 percentage points ahead of Trump, 39-34, with a large undecided and third-party vote. That sounds bad for Trump, but the trend line in the poll is favorable for him: The previous edition of the poll, conducted two weeks ago, had him down 12 points.

• A Gravis Marketing poll, conducted Thursday and Friday, has Trump 2 points ahead of Clinton. Their previous national poll, in late June, had Clinton up 2 points instead.2 Note, however, that Gravis has generally shown better results for Trump than most other pollsters.

There are also a couple of polls that contain a mix of post-convention, pre-convention and during-convention data:

• The USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll, conducted from last Saturday through Friday, has Trump up by 2 percentage points. That suggests very little bounce, given that Trump had been up by 1 percentage point in the poll before the convention.

• However, the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll, conducted from Monday through Friday, shows Trump making major gains, trailing Clinton by less than 1 percentage point. Clinton had generally been up by around 10 percentage points in that poll before the convention began. Clinton’s lead is slightly larger, 3 percentage points, in the version of the poll without Johnson and Stein.

• Finally, a Rasmussen Reports poll, conducted during the convention on Monday and Tuesday, shows Trump ahead by 1 percentage point. That’s actually down from a 7-point lead for Trump in Rasmussen’s poll last week, although that poll had been a big outlier. . .

Whereas June’s polls suggested a potential blowout for Clinton, July’s polls have shown a highly competitive race. We’ll see what August’s polls bring, after the Democrats have held their convention and the bounces have died down.

So, there is some cognitive dissonance here. On the one hand, analysts are saying that there is unlikely to be much difference in the polls, since the two candidates are so well known, and frankly, so unpopular. But after saying that, the pollsters are showing that Clinton’s huge lead in June evaporated, bringing them to a statistical tie, and now a Trump lead. If that trend continues, it could be very bad news for Hillary.

On the other hand, one might not be surprised with her drop, as the repercussions of the email scandal sink in, and an entire week of trashing Hillary. On the other hand, Hillary might stop the slide this week. Face it, the GOP convention was depressing. If Hillary can project a sufficiently positive (less depressing) message next week, the electorate may swing her way again.

About the Author

Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.

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Comments

Straight Shooter

The polling may very well swing Billary’s way next week after the convention. The fact that the release of emails by WIKILEAKS that showed the DNC slandering Bernie Sanders will only ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE about her honesty. Not even the most die hard Clinton advocate will doubt that the Wicked Witch didn’t have the DNC in her pocket doing her dirty work.?

If I recall correctly, during the respective primaries Bloomberg TV had hypothetical match ups of the candidates. When it was Trump vs Clinton, she won by some 50 %. When it was apparent that both were going to be the nominees, her margin of victory had dropped to something like 20 %. Now we get to last month where she was only up by single digits and finally July, where she is trailing in some pills. If she keeps on going this way she will be in NEGATIVE TERRITORY!!!?

Donald Trump may be no saint but I for one am willing to give him the BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. I don’t think anyone has any wonder as to what Billary will be like. She is the consummate political animal and the country will get more of THE SAME OLD SAME OLD with her.

Donald Trump will be taking a pay cut if he is elected president. Billary on the other hand is nothing but a POWER HUNGRY MEGALOMANIAC. Her thirst for power will ruin the country as she will be as reckless as president as she was as Secretary of State.

I pray that people consider the options when voting for president. Voting strictly along party lines will ruin the country. Democrats, that last sentence was meant for you.

ebinrock

I hate party lines anyway. I wish we could all just vote for the INDIVIDUAL we want for any given office. Political parties are a collectivist idea, the stark opposite of the traditions on which this country was founded.