Mike Eliason/Santa Barbara News-PressA humpback whale makes its presence known near a line of offshore oil wells near Santa Barbara, California. Near-coastal drilling is currently politically popular, but even if it is done without environmental damage, the oil produced will do little to alleviate America's energy problems.

Energy independence will not spring from offshore oil wells

The silly campaign shouting match (we won't dignify it be calling it a "debate") about drilling for oil off the nation's most beautiful and pristine coastlines has made for good - if unsettling - political theater. The call, invariably delivered with great urgency and seriousness, has been a staple of every presidential stump speech lately because the candidates want to be sure the SUV-saddled electorate knows they're all over the phony issue. Yes, phony. Rhymes with baloney. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, governor of California, calls the drilling talk "snake oil."

If you still believe offshore oil drilling will reduce gasoline prices and set America on the road to energy independence, you've been badly bamboozled. Even the politicians and pundits espousing the plan don't believe it will do anything of the sort. They're counting on the fact that you don't understand the oil market and can be suckered into mistaking slogans for solutions to the very complex energy problem.

Let's disperse some myths floating in the rhetorical oil slick and take a look at what's really going on.

MYTH: We're running short of oil
No, we are not. Not even close. What's more, we probably never will actually run out of oil. (The oil supply is what mathematicians call an asymptotic value. That's a math term for a number that edges closer and closer to another number, such as zero, but never quite gets there.) What we will run low on is the oil that is easiest to find and cheapest and easiest to produce. The American oil industry prizes what it calls "light sweet crude" because its refineries are geared to process that type of alkaline low-sulfur oil. There are vast quantities of "heavy sour crude" but the acidic high-sulfur oil is more difficult to process and would require expensive retooling of our refineries. As we are forced to turn to the more difficult oil sources, prices will inevitably continue to rise until we have no choice but to develop alternative energy sources. Even a crash program of offshore drilling will only serve to delay that day.

MYTH: We need all the oil we can get

Ben Margot/Associated PressAmerican flags wave near an oil refinery in Martinez, California. Increasing oil production is currently being cast as the patriotic thing to do, but it may not be in our long-term best interests.

The concept of necessity is a slippery rock. We were burning oil with reckless abandon until the price went way up. Then, quite suddenly, the gas-guzzler market collapsed and Americans traveled double-digit billions fewer miles. So much for necessity. It may seem surprising, but America, the world's largest oil importer, actually exports something on the order of a million barrels of petroleum a day. Mostly the American exports are refined products.

MYTH: Offshore drilling will permanently cut oil prices
Not so fast. Supply and demand are still at work in the oil business, but that simplistic view ignores one important fact: When oil eventually starts coming out of those new offshore wells, maybe years from now (if they don't come up dry), we don't get to keep it! Oil is not sold at the nearest dock. If you want some crude, you need to go to the futures market - where you will offer a bid and pay market rates, whatever they happen to be at the moment. So the oil coming out of those new offshore wells may be purchased by China or Japan or Germany or any other country. If there's more oil in the market, the price may come down a wee bit for a while - which is only likely to spur consumption again. There is absolutely no direct connection between those new wells the politicians are dangling before our eyes and our national supply.

MYTH: Oil companies are price gougers
It's true that big oil is raking in enormous profits. Exxon has been reporting record profits, toting up in excess of $10 billion in the past two quarters. So they're clearly charging too much, right? Alas, it's not quite that simple. Remember that every 42-gallon barrel of oil pumped out of the ground goes into that really big barrel known as the world market. The price of oil is set in such places as the Crude Pit at the New York Merchantile Exchange. Pit traders sell the available oil to the highest bidder, and they have every incentive to sell it for as much as the market will bear. When the traders sell the oil they cut Exxon a check. It's not Big Oil's fault that people use so much crude and are willing to pay preposterous prices for it. One oddity: In America the oil supply is controlled by private companies. In most other countries, oil is a national resource and the companies are run or controlled by the government. Thus it is the country, not private enterprise, that is collecting the profits.

MYTH: Oil prices are down lately, so they are obviously being manipulated

Greg Baker/Associated PressRemember when Beijing was a city of bicyclists? No more. With China's modernization came the street-clogging automobile, making China a major oil consumer and a formidable competitor in the world oil market.

Nope. It's that old devil Supply & Demand again. (See! It works!) High prices kept us off the road and away from the gas pump. We've used a lot less oil lately, meaning the market's supply went up - and prices went down. The drop was far quicker and deeper than anticipated by any of the cockamamie political proposals we've been hearing about. The price of regular gas is lately below $4 a gallon in some areas. That's likely to encourage us to return to our wasteful ways. If those sidelined gas-guzzlers ever make it back on the highways, prices will rise anew.

Wild swings in oil prices are a relatively recent phenomenon. Back in the old days before there was an energy market - we're talking 1960s and earlier - oil prices didn't change much. The price of crude was a business secret and was controlled by the oil companies which, for the most part, sold directly to refiners. It didn't change much from year to year, which explains why the gasoline price numbers sometimes rusted on the pumps. Then the world energy market and its unruly competitive nature came along, and prices haven't been the same since.

Sometimes it seems we're damned if we don't cut our oil consumption and damned if we do. Some agencies and areas of government have a vested interest in encouraging us to use more gasoline rather than conserving it. Because of this the oil-price rollercoaster has had some interesting side-effects.

Robin George/Staten Island AdvanceNew York City Councilman Michael McMahon of Staten Island is joined by other New York politicians in October 2003 as he calls for an outright ban on personal scooters within the city. The scooters were seen as a hazard to motorists and pedestrians. With the rise of gasoline prices, it may be time for a more nuanced and focused approach to regulating the energy-efficient vehicles.

As we drive less - and therefore buy less fuel - we begin starving government budgets. Federal and state gas taxes add nearly 37 cents to every gallon of gasoline, so when we cut consumption by millions of gallons, gas-tax revenues fall sharply. That means there's less money for highway projects and repairs. Fewer miles traveled means fewer trips on toll roads and bridges. The MTA, which boosted the cost of crossing the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge to a cool $10 just a few months ago now wants to nick drivers another 80 cents because toll revenues have not met projections.

Make no mistake: There really is an energy problem. And, as Pogo might have said, "It is us." Instead of kvetching and demanding "relief at the pump," it would be more useful if we found ways to visit the pump less often. We could embrace alternatives and change. What's the worst that could happen? A cleaner environment? How bad would that be?

Perhaps the most effective thing any of us can do to get a handle on the energy problem is to not be conned into thinking politically motivated sound-byte solutions will get the job done. Any candidate whose energy policy fits on a bumper sticker is either an ignoramus or is insulting your intelligence.