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April 10, 2020 tUrn introduces you to CARBON BRIEF

Summary: Carbon emission decline largest ever due to pandemic.

When will the lockdowns end? It’s a question being urgently asked across the world, as governments struggle to contain both the coronavirus pandemic itself and the resulting economic fallout.

The longer it goes on, the deeper the impact on carbon emissions. Many countries have made progress in recent years decoupling their economic growth from rising emissions. But it still remains the case that a sharp economic downturn typically leads to a near-immediate fall in emissions.

New analysis published today by Carbon Brief places the ongoing crisis in historical context. The data is still coming in all the time, but early indications suggest that Covid-19 will cause global CO2 emissions to experience their largest ever annual decline this year, more than during any previous economic crisis or period of war (see above).

But even this stunning decline is not enough to put the world on course for achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C aspirational climate goal. The current decline would need to increase by almost half again to see the scale of reductions required. And that level would then need to be repeated for each year of this decade. Sobering.

So let’s hope we don’t need a global pandemic every year to limit global warming to 1.5C.

New Korea

Remarkably, amid the Covid-19 crisis, some elections are still taking place around the world. Next week, for example, South Koreans head to the polls in a pivotal election for climate policy.

As explained in a new in-depth Carbon Brief country profile, South Korea’s governing party is pledging to introduce a “green new deal” and a 2050 net-zero emissions goal, if it is re-elected. Such statements of intent would be a first for the region.

However, as the profile highlights, South Korea is currently reliant on coal, with 44% of its electricity generated from this polluting fossil fuel. A further quarter comes from nuclear plants, with mixed signals from both the public and their political representatives about whether to shut them down. Hence, the next government will have some big decisions to make, especially given that renewables only account for a small fraction of the country’s energy mix.

Saving species

A study covered by Carbon Brief is the latest in a number of high-profile papers suggesting that widespread wildlife losses could occur this decade unless the world can rapidly reduce its emissions.

With no climate action, tropical ocean ecosystems could face intolerably high temperatures by 2030, says the Nature study. By 2050, tropical forests could also see such conditions.

By comparison, limiting global warming to below 2C could delay the date at which ecosystems are exposed to intolerable temperatures by six decades, it adds.

“By holding warming below 2C, we can effectively ‘flatten the curve’ of how climate risks to biodiversity accumulate over time, delaying the exposure of the most at-risk species by many decades and averting exposure entirely for many thousands of species,” study author Dr Alex Pigot told Carbon Brief.

Summary: CLIMATE CRISIS exacerbates PANDEMICS.

Read about the connections. The following resources were published in

The Connections Between

Climate Change and Pandemics?

As Covid-19 takes over the news and our lives, you may be calling into question the relevance of taking climate change action until we get to the other side of this pandemic.

However, there are connections between climate change and pandemic emergence, transmission and individual outcomes that make continued climate change education and activism extremely relevant.

Among many other expert sources, the World Health Organization has for some time identified that changes in infectious disease transmission patterns are a likely major consequence of climate change.

Finding conclusive reporting on the subject is difficult because there is a chronic lack of funding for such studies. However, we pulled together a sampling of articles, interviews and papers that we thought you’d find interesting as a starting point on the subject.

The Next Pandemic Could Be Hiding in the

Arctic Permafrost

Melody Schreiber, New Republic, April 2, 2020

Although the current coronavirus pandemic is likely originating with an animal-to-human crossover far from the Arctic Circle, global warming could unearth ancient microbes in the Arctic permafrost. Will we be as unprepared as we were for the coronavirus?

Researchers drilled a 164-foot hole into the glacier, gathered two ice core samples from the 15,000-year-old glacier, and then later identified them in a lab. In total, they identified 33 virus groups—28 of which were completely new to science. Article Link

How Climate Change and Wildlife Influence the Coronavirus

Amy Harder, Axios, March 27, 2020

This article discusses the direct impact of wildlife practices and indirect impact of climate change on pandemic emergence and outcomes. Article Link

How Deforestation Drives the Emergence of Novel Coronaviruses

Jeff McMahon, Forbes, March 21, 2020

In the wake of HIV, Ebola and SARS, scientists documented a potential path for viruses from bats through other mammals to humans. Some scientists and doctors have argued that path is paved by deforestation. Article Link

Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier

Jon Schwartz, New York Times, March 18, 2020

This NY Times article presents a summary of an interview with Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech and an author of the federal government’s leading climate change report, the National Climate Assessment, and provides links to other sources of research relevant to the question of climate change and health. Article Link

How Climate Change Increases Our Risk for Pandemics

Rebecca Thiele, NPR Interview, March 24, 2020

Climate change may be putting people at risk for more pandemics like COVID-19. Habitat loss due to climate is bringing animals that can transmit disease in contact with humans more often.

This article summarizes and cites two studies published in October 2019 that shine a light on how environmental destruction could lead to a greater spread of deadly human diseases via animals and other organisms, with serious consequences for public health. Article Link

Impacts Of Environmental And Socio-Economic Factors On Emergence And Epidemic Potential Of Ebola

A Conversation on COVID-19 with Dr. Aaron Bernstein, Director of Harvard C-CHANGE

Harvard C-Change team, March 20, 2020

This recent post from Harvard’s Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment helps put many different factors surrounding the possible linkages between Coronavirus, climate change, and the environment in perspective

After reading the article, download this companion discussion guide authored by Katherine Cushing, Ph.D., Professor of Environmental Studies at San Jose State University.