A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.

Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of MexicoMoisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into VietnamTyphoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.

Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

I'm not going to get concerned about the area of interest in the South Caribbean until I see KMan make a post. He seems to have a good layman's sense on these things...That thing does seem to have spin and convection.Do we have a quiksat?

Looks like they're skittish too. But preparing, sandbagging, as best they can.

Imminent flood threat prompts Newton County disaster declaration

November 02, 2009 9:28 AM

The threat of flooding has prompted the Newton County judge to issue a disaster declaration.

Newton County Judge Truman Dougharty issued the declaration Saturday afternoon. According to the declaration, there is an imminent threat of flooding from unusually high rainfall and outflow from Toledo Bend Reservoir within the County and the prediction of increased outflow on the Sabine River, and WHEREAS, the County Judge of Newton County has determined that extraordinary measures must be taken to alleviate the suffering of people and to protect or rehabilitate property

And for all those who just love to drive down flooded streets and pushing water into people's homes, this line's for you. (my two cents)

If you don't live in those subdivisions or have business there, stay away," said Sheriff Walker.

What IKE said to you on the weekend was wrong and probably was not any help to your lack of enthusiam.

MayFL you need to give it a rest. Ike has been a part of this blog for a very, very long time. there are people here who see what you say and have seen the little persuasive words you keep trying to convince W456 what was said. I have read the coments and have seen that what Ike simply tried to say was that he may be right, he may be wrong, this is what he saw at the time and there are other things in life more important. You are doging very little to make yourself credible or respectable and quite frankly you could use quite a bit of compasion

Quoting BrowardJeff:My car was parked in the garage during Wilma. The opening to the crawl space in the attic fell on it and messed up the hood. I had to file it against my car insurance, not my homeowners/windstorm policy.

Yes, I had to file on my car insurance too. Rita sheered of the passenger side window, busted the windshield, and broke part of the grill thing on the hood. And the various dings and dents. After Ike it was covered under the carport. So other than water on the floor boards it made it ok. Just enough to require a good airing out so no claim that time. I think our home owner's policy will cover someone else's car, that's not on our property if it is damaged by our trees, debris, etc. But that may have been the last policy. Lol. Heck getting old. Can't remember sh...uh anything. :)

Let's face it, Your not shy. Have you been following the flooding of rivers, streams, bayous etc. in LA. I hear there is some real potential for damage beyond what has already happened fromlast weeks rains

It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.

Quoting reedzone:

It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.

Irony is something else. Every time someone says the season over, we get something to track.

It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OFBERMUDA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THISSYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLERWATERS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT48 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGHSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPSHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOWPRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGEDLITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOWDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

$$FORECASTER BERG

Be interested to see what becomes of this. do not believe anything serious. Possibly a lot of rain making it into areas that have already had to much....Oh man....Dinner bell See ya all later.....

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OFBERMUDA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THISSYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLERWATERS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THISSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT48 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGHSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPSHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOWPRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGEDLITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOWDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski"

This is in line of what the Tallahassee forecasters were mentioning in their long range discussion as well, which is out lined in the GFS models.

It will be interesting to see if this evolves going through this week and into the weekend.

My car was parked in the garage during Wilma. The opening to the crawl space in the attic fell on it and messed up the hood. I had to file it against my car insurance, not my homeowners/windstorm policy.

Yipe! You are correct. :) Thanks for the warning. Wouldn't want you, me or Eddie...um Keeper to get a ban. Lol. And yep Beall, I'll be watching. As you said little hard to ignore. And all things considered, I'd much rather just the rain. If we get anything. And Atmo I'm glad that doesn't mean what it says about the homes with water in them.

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.