000
FXUS61 KAKQ 262008
AFDAKQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
408 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Maria will track northward off the North Carolina coast while
gradually weakening today through Wednesday. Maria will then
push east northeast and out to sea Wednesday night and Thursday.
High pressure will build into the region later Thursday through
Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Late aftn analysis indicating tropical cyclone Maria centered
about 150 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, moving N at less than 10
mph. Radar revealing some locally heavier showers now pushing
through Hampton Roads and portions of SE VA and will have likely
PoPs through 7 pm there, with genly just 20-30% PoPs or lower
elsewhere.
Maria will continue to push N tonight, as an upper low drops
southeast across FL. PW values are quite high/2" or greater
across the SE tonight and over the eastern 1/2 of the CWA on Wed
so some brief heavy downpours will continue to be possible.
However, the coverage of showers will not be that great and the
showers will be moving rather quickly for the most part so
flooding is not much of a concern. Maria will slowly begin to
track off to the NE on Wed while making its closest pass to the
local area and have increased PoPs to likely in the morning
across far SE VA/NE NC, though the offshore track will result
in the main areas of heavy rain remaining off the coast.
It will be rather breezy/windy along the SE VA and NC coast and
the tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Currituck NC,
with gusts up to 40 mph possible for SE VA zones near the coast
9not quite enough for any wind advy headlines). Except for the
likely PoPs near the coast, will maintain PoPs of 20-40% east
of I-95 Wed. Highs on Wed will range fm the upper 70s to lower
80s along the coast, to the mid-upper 80s inland where partial
sunshine is expected. This, after morning lows in the upper 60s
to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drying out all zones Wed night, lows mainly in the 60s except
lower 70s SE. By 12z Thu, Maria should be farther off to the E
then pushing well out to sea by the aftn. Will carry lingering
slight chc PoPs (~20%) along the coast for primarily the morning
hours. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny through the day. Highs
on Thu will range fm the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast,
to the lower to mid 80s inland. Dry and turning cooler/more
seasonable Thu night as high pressure builds in from the NW.
Lows in the 50s to lower 60s and highs Fri in the 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A front drops across the area Fri night and stalls just south of
Albemarle Sound Sat by late aftn/early evening. Light showers
should accompany the front...crossing the Delmarva first late
Fri night and then persist along coastal areas through Sat.
Meanwhile, a strong upper level trough swings through the region
Sat and exits the coast Sat night. Much cooler Canadian high
pressure builds in behind the departing upper trough and
persists over the area through early next week. Temperatures
will run about 5 degrees below average. Highs generally 70-75F
(upper 60s possible portions of Nrn Neck and coastal MD/VA Ern
Shore). Lows generally upper 40s-lower 50s NW to low-mid 50s
inland to low- mid 60s SE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers have been moving in from the coast
periodically affecting ORF/PHF/ECG. Mainly IFR cigs continue
across SE VA, while they have genly lifted to MVFR ~1500 ft at
RIC/SBY/ECG. Gusty NE winds prevail across the SE through
tonight/Wed (gusts to 30-35 kt possible at ORF/ECG). Skies
become variably cloudy inland on Wed (stay mostly cloudy through
midday near the coast). Winds diminish and skies become mostly
clear Wed night into early Thu though N winds stay gusty at the
coast.
Outlook: Generally dry and quiet from Thu into the upcoming
weekend. Will probably see a brief period of clouds Fri night
with a secondary cold frontal passage, but conditions look to
remain VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Hurricane Maria is located about 175 miles E of Cape Hatteras as
of 245 PM...moving north at 7 MPH per NHC update at 200 PM. NNE
gusting to 35-40kt from mouth of Ches Bay swd late this aftn.
Bumped winds up several knots for these areas with the 100 PM
marine update. Tropical warnings, gales, and SCA headlines
remain unchanged with the exception of coastal waters from
Chincoteague to Parramore Island which is now within a gale
warning for gusts averaging to around 35kt tonight into Wed.
Winds/seas will start to improve Wed night as Maria begins
tracking ewd. Maria then gets pushed rapidly out to sea on Thu
by a cold front crossing the area (parent low is in Quebec).
North winds remain elevated within SCA thresholds all waters Thu
and for Ocean/Bay/Lower James River into Thu night...especially
with cold air advection surging down over the warmer waters.
Seas slower to subside below 5 ft until late Fri night...
therefore any SCA headlines for the waters will likely persist
through this timeframe. High pressure builds over the area on
Fri...followed by a front dropping across the waters Fri night
and stalling south of Albemarle Sound on Sat. Winds generally
below 15kt Fri- Sat. For Sat...seas 2-4ft/waves 1-3ft.
Please monitor the NHC forecast for the official forecast track
of Hurricane Maria.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statements will remain in effect for locations
adjacent to the Bay and James River thru the afternoon high tide
cycle. Tidal departures are currently running 1.0-1.5 ft. Expect
the departure to steadily increase as Maria moves N through
Wed. Expect departures of 2.0 to 2.5 ft by Wednesday afternoon
across the southern Bay and areas south of Cape Henry along the
ocean...w/ 1-1.5 ft departures northern bay into the northern
coastal waters. These values are similar to what we saw last
week in Jose. However...the astronomical tide is about 0.6 ft
less this week than last week in Jose. This should keep any
coastal flooding confined to minor during the time of high tide
on Wed. The high tide cycle late tonight/early Wed morning is
not expected to reach minor flooding thresholds. Therefore...no
statements/advisories will be necessary.
As with Jose...the main concern will end up being high surf and
potential coastal erosion. A High Surf Advisory remains in
effect for the entire coastal waters through Wednesday for
nearshore waves of 8+ feet.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ098>100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-
635>638-650.
Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ634-652.
Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-656-658.
Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...BMD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...