Commentary and analysis on governance, development, international politics and current affairs

Category: Nigerian Affairs

Democratic governments are likely to face two interrelated problems in implementing difficult economic reforms. First, is the unpopularity of these measures among citizens who are likely to shoulder the most burden. Second, is the difficulty in employing a practical approach to implementation. Reforming Nigeria’s money-guzzling fuel subsidy regime, now an urgent matter in the context of dwindling government revenues since 2014, is both unpopular and the practicalities of its reformation are yet to be fleshed out.

Last week, I was at a conference organised by the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), formerly Revenue Watch Institute, on the challenges and opportunities presented by falling commodity prices. It was attended by the best in the academia, in policy and in civil society in the field.

A breakdown of the panels and speakers is available on the NRGI website.

There were a couple of things which stood out that are worth highlighting and documenting.

Our publication (with colleague Dr Olly Owen) in the July edition of the journal, African Affairs is out. We wrote a brief on the Nigerian presidential election in March 2015, assessing why the election was exceptional in many respects, why many previous predictions including ours of a runoff or an outright Jonathan/PDP victory did not come to pass, and why and how Goodluck Jonathan and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) lost the elections.

I spoke to the BBC on Tuesday 31 March 2015 on Nigeria’s Presidential Elections. This was just before the counting of votes was concluded, although it was fairly evident by then that the opposition candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari had won.

I spoke to Aljazeera English on water and other infrastructure deficits in Nigeria, and how to what extent these feature in the campaigns in the run up to the presidential elections. This was on 22 March 2015.

It is common to hear policy makers, development experts and pundits talk about the need to “build strong institutions” in Africa as the solution to governance challenges without quite understanding what processes building or modifying these “institutions” entail. Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson in their 2012 tour de force, Why Nations Fail, provide a compelling explanation of how extractive or inclusive institutions emerge and determine societies’ political stability and economic prosperity. Their retrospective analysis shows how we are often unaware of this institutional change as it occurs. In Nigeria, the cloud of uncertainty around its forthcoming elections on 28 March is indicative of a process whose outcome will fundamentally alter its political system with implications for the rest of the African continent.Read More »

I have said it many times, Nigeria and Nigerians are in many ways similar to the United States and Americans. The country’s size, the regional presence, the diversity, the assertiveness and entrepreneurial spirit of Nigerians, the economic and regional inequalities etc. That is probably why in 1979, the country decided to Read More »

I have been invited by the Royal African Society to participate in a panel discussing the forthcoming general elections in Nigeria, and the underlying political, economic, social and global issues around it.

This is an opinion piece I recently wrote for Aljazeera English, analysing how African countries are responding to falling global crude oil prices. I reproduce it below:

The plummeting of global crude prices is generating ripple effects worldwide. While oil exporters are reeling from plunging revenues, oil importers are bracing for cheaper oil, and the potential economic stimulus. Global economic relations may also witness profound shifts as the United States overtakes Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer.Read More »

Earlier today, I was invited to the BBC Headquarters in London, for a brief chat on the recent attacks and massacres in Baga by Boko Haram in Nigeria, and the government’s response to it. It was aired live on Focus on Africa from 17.30hrs GMT. Here is a video clip.

I will be participating in a panel, at an event organised by the Royal Institute of International Affairs, aka Chatham House. The title is: Elections, Boko Haram and Security: Assessing and Addressing Nigeria’s Complex Challenges. It is taking place at Chatham House offices in London, on 9 December 2014, from 9.30 am to 12 noon GMT.

I will be speaking on the political landscape, the context, the key actors and forecasts of the possible outcomes of the 2015 elections in Nigeria. This will be largely based on the ongoing elections forecasts by my colleague, Olly Owen and I.

The event will be live streamed, and will be made available from 9:30 on the Chatham House website.

The video of my talk on the fragmentation of political cohesion and the ‘Boko Haram’ insurgency at the Africa Research Institute (ARI) London, in October this year, is out. It is 21 minutes long. Enjoy.

A consortium of local NGOs in Nigeria is launching an appeal fund to support the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the North-East. According to the UN (as indicated in the flyer below) about 470,000 have fled their homes since 2013. Please donate and assist, where you can. Details in the flyer attached.Read More »