The purpose of the carbon tax is to decrease carbon-dioxide emissions by levying a tax based on the amount of emissions produced. The tax would begin at $15 per ton in the first year and increase by $5 per ton each subsequent year until the tax reaches $45 per ton. A “Fiscal and Policy Note” (FPN) on RCCCI by the Maryland General Assembly’s Department of Legal Services estimates the program would raise taxes in the Old Line State by $554 million in fiscal year 2019, when the program would first take effect. By FY 2023, when the program reaches its $45-per-ton cap, taxes will have risen by $2.49 billion. The FPN also calls the program’s effect on small businesses “meaningful,” and that these businesses will “incur a significant increase in expenditures due to an increase in the price of gas and electricity resulting from the establishment of the [greenhouse gas] pollution charge.”

Sixty-seven percent of the revenue raised by RCCCI would be placed into a “Household Rebate Account,” from which it would then be distributed back to Maryland households based on their standing in “specified income-based quintiles.” These rebates are necessary because carbon dioxide taxes are inherently regressive and disproportionally harm low-income families. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found a $28 per ton carbon tax would result in energy costs being 250 percent higher for the poorest one-fifth of households than the richest one-fifth of households.

CBO reports the reason for cost discrepancy is “a carbon tax would increase the prices of fossil fuels in direct proportion to their carbon content. Higher fuel prices, in turn, would raise production costs and ultimately drive up prices for goods and services throughout the economy … Low-income households spend a larger share of their income on goods and services whose prices would increase the most, such as electricity and transportation.”

A 2013 study by the National Association of Manufacturers estimated a $20-per-ton carbon-dioxide tax in Maryland, a threshold that would be reached in 2020 under the proposed bill, would result in a 40 percent increase in the price of natural gas. The study also estimated gasoline prices would be 20 cents per gallon higher and that there would be a 22 percent increase in household utility rates. Incredibly, all this is projected to occur in the first year.

Another problem with a carbon-dioxide tax is any environmental benefits that it might produce would be effectively meaningless without concomitant legislation enacted throughout the rest of the globe. A country-wide carbon tax that completely reduces U.S. emissions to zero by 2050 would only avert global temperature by just 0.2 degrees Celsius by 2100. A state-based carbon tax would have even less impact on global temperature.

It is likely for these reasons the U.S. public finds the idea of a carbon tax so unpopular. An October 2017 poll of 1,038 adults conducted by the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago revealed 68 percent of respondents said they were unwilling to pay an extra $20 month on their electric bills to combat climate change, although this amount is “roughly equivalent to what the federal government estimates the damages from climate change would be on each household.” Further, almost half the respondents, 42 percent, said they would be unwilling to pay even one extra dollar.

At 12.21 cents per kilowatt hour, Maryland currently has the tenth-highest retail electricity prices in the continental United States, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. A 2017 WalletHub study also found at $300 a month, Marylanders face total energy costs well above the national average, and the Tax Foundation already ranks Maryland’s tax climate the country’s eighth-worst. A carbon-dioxide tax would make everything more expensive for working families in Maryland, who are already pinched by the state’s high costs, leaving them less to spend and save – all without any guaranteed environmental benefits.

The Case Against a U.S. Carbon Taxhttps://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/the-case-against-a-us-carbon-tax
In this paper from the Cato Institute, Robert P. Murphy, Patrick J. Michaels, and Paul C. Knappenberger examine carbon-dioxide tax programs in place in Australia and British Columbia and consider whether similar programs would be successful in the United States. They conclude, “In theory and in practice, economic analysis shows that the case for a U.S. carbon tax is weaker than its most vocal supporters have led the public to believe.”

Economic Outcomes of a U.S. Carbon Taxhttps://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/economic-outcomes-of-a--us-carbon-tax
This report from the National Association of Manufacturers evaluates the potential impacts carbon taxes whose revenues would be devoted to a combination of debt and tax rate reduction would have on the U.S. economy. The results consider the varied economic effects of fossil-fuel cost increases caused by carbon taxes, as well as the positive economic effects of the assumption that carbon tax revenues would be used to reduce government debt and federal taxes.

The Carbon Tax Shell Gamehttps://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/the-carbon-tax-shell-game
Oren Cass of the Manhattan Institute argues the carbon tax is a “shell game.” The range of designs, prices, rationales, and claimed benefits varies so widely that assessing the validity of most proposals is nearly impossible to accomplish. In this article for National Affairs, Cass says the effect of carbon-dioxide taxes on emissions has proven to be insubstantial, a fact he says is ignored by the tax’s proponents when promoting its purported benefits. Cass also says carbon-dioxide taxes’ negative fiscal effects are claimed to be offset by efficiency improvements and by promising the revenues will be spent to offset the costs, but he says the same revenues are often promised to different constituencies to accomplish completely different and largely incompatible goals.

Assessing the Social Costs and Benefits of Regulating Carbon Emissionshttps://www.heartland.org/publications-resources/publications/assessing-the-social-costs-and-benefits-of-regulating-carbon-emissions
The government is required to quantify the costs and benefits of regulations they propose. In the context of regulations pertaining to carbon-dioxide emissions, various agencies have been using differing estimates of the net social cost related to carbon dioxide. In response, an interagency working group (IWG) was created to establish a consistent and objective “social cost of carbon.” The range of estimates of the social cost of carbon produced by the IWG is too narrow and almost certainly biased upwards. Using better models and the most recently available evidence on climate sensitivity, this study from the Reason Foundation finds the range of the social cost of carbon should be revised downwards. The study states carbon-dioxide emissions may have a net beneficial effect on the environment.

Nothing in this Research & Commentary is intended to influence the passage of legislation, and it does not necessarily represent the views of The Heartland Institute. For further information on this subject, visit Environment & Climate News, The Heartland Institute’s website, and PolicyBot, Heartland’s free online research database.

The Heartland Institute can send an expert to your state to testify or brief your caucus; host an event in your state; or send you further information on a topic. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if we can be of assistance! If you have any questions or comments, contact John Nothdurft, Heartland’s director of government relations, at john@heartland.org or 312/377-4000.