6 1. Introduction 1.1 What is this Report About? This report provides the results for a specific product market of Canadean s unique, highly detailed, and proprietary study of consumers Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) consumption habits, and forms part of an overall series covering all CPG product markets. Uniquely, this study utilizes both a large scale consumer survey program and a program of industry interviews and secondary research to provide a complete picture of consumer consumption behavior and how this directly affects market value integrating two types of data and research in order to join the dots between consumer habits and market value. The focus of the report is to provide the essential data from these two integrated streams of research in order to provide both market and consumer insight at the product category level for specific consumer groups. From consumption frequency and consumer group share of market value, the report provides unparalleled data on who (which consumers) consumes what (which product categories), how often, why (the influence of various consumer trends), and the market value of combinations of these factors. Crucial in being able to provide all of this detail are unifying frameworks which underpin all of the research and the analysis frameworks. Of these the most important is the consumer trends framework. This framework (described in detail below) distills the key global consumer trends that are shaping consumer consumptions habits, from health to the uptake of the latest technologies. In total the report tracks 20 trends, each of which has the potential to act as a driver or inhibitor on the product market. By analyzing these trends the report also answers questions such as How much is the indulgence trend worth in my market? and How important to consumers are factors like convenience in my product category? 1.2 Definitions Consumer Trends Canadean s proprietary consumer trends framework covers 21 consumer trends (20 of which are covered in this report) and six consumer cohort groups. A consumer trend is defined as a clear and long-term direction in consumers values, attitudes, or behaviors for example the trend towards health, indulgence, or convenience. Based on rigorous analysis of consumer trends literature and our own in-house expertise this framework provides a highly robust and comprehensive view of the global trends affecting consumers. For completeness we provide the results for all the consumer trends tracked in each report for each category covered, making it clear where the impact of a consumer trend is strongest. Our consumer trends framework, along with a brief description of each trend is provided below: Aspirations the trend towards consumers having more aspirational desires and wanting this reflected in the products that they consume Beauty the trend towards consumers being increasingly interested in their beauty and grooming and as a consequence seeking to achieve more of their beauty aims and ambitions Better Value for Money particularly important in the current economic environment, this trend reflects growing consumer desire, particularly in Western economies, for 6

7 better value for money from their purchases. This can cover not only trading down to lower priced items, but also trading up to higher priced ones when a consumer feels there is value in doing so Busy Lives the trend for consumers increasingly fitting more activities into the same amount of time in a day. Working hours are increasing for certain groups, but many consumers similarly have increasingly busy lives as they attempt to juggle work, home life, personal ambitions, and the desire to be close to friends and family. As highlighted below, for this trend we also identify specific consumer groups Changing Age Structures a socio-demographic trend, the age structures of many countries are evolving, having a significant impact on the marketing landscape. It s not just the aging of populations in Western, developed countries either, the rapid increase in younger generations in developing countries also challenges pre-conceptions about who the main consumers for products are. As highlighted below, for this trend we also identify specific consumer groups Changing Lifestages another socio-demographic trend, and one related to changing age structures. Combined with altering age group dynamics, the marketing landscape is altered in many countries as people increasingly delay settling down, marriage, and childbirth. The traditional pattern of lifestages is evolving, and as a result so are the sizes of these groups and their needs from CPG purchases. As highlighted below, for this trend we also identify specific consumer groups Connection flexible labor markets, increased work and pleasure travel, busy lives, and the breakup of traditional family structures in many countries leaves many people with a growing desire to rectify the downturn in the types of personal connections those in previous generations had. The desire to be close to friends, family or those with similar interests combines with evolving technologies to create an explosion in the desire for people to feel somehow connected to what s important to them. Social networking, growth in the desire to spend more time with family and friends, and the desire to improve the quality of that time are all manifestations of this trend Education while not expressly covered in this report (as few people consume more or less of a product purely because of the level of formal education they have achieved), it is an important trend as levels of formal education increase around the world. In this report related trends or groups (for example wealth groups) cover the impact of growing consumer education on CPG consumption Ethics, Responsibility & Spirituality increasingly a growing number of consumers are concerned (even if they don t always act upon these concerns) about their own ethics and spirituality. In turn many consumers are increasingly critical of the ethical and related credentials of the products or services they buy, and the providers of them Experience seeking many consumers are seeking to go beyond the simple act of owning and consuming products and instead are seeking to attain greater value by seeking products and services that somehow offer rewarding experiences. This can take many forms and can be related to other trends. For example, consuming a very high quality food or drink may not only satisfy a need for quality, but also the act of consumption in itself may well have value as an experience that will not soon be forgotten Fun and enjoyment many consumers, young and old, and not least in these challenging economic times, are seeking additional fun and enjoyment and some will often choose CPG products as a result of these needs 7

8 Health in almost every country, consumers are increasingly worried about their overall wellbeing and specifically their health. The wider social effects of growing obesity rates and sedentary lifestyles have led to growth in consumer concern about their own health, which has had an impact on their willingness to choose products and services that might result in health benefits Individualism in an age of mass consumerism, global brands, and rules and regulations, many people are often seeking to express their individual identities, personalities, needs, and wants when the opportunity arises. As a result, products and services can tap into this trend by offering people ways of achieving these desires Indulgence from little rewards to big ones, consumers are increasingly seeking ways in which they can indulge their desires and achieve the feel good this can create, even if only temporary Media fragmentation of the media may mean that any one media or media outlet s influence may be declining, but the growth of 24/7 media access from almost any place or location means that media influence continues to extend and increasingly shape consumers habits even if they are seeking to react against media trends New Gender Behaviors this trend refers to the blurring of traditional gender roles and behaviors, and is related to the changing nature of modern life for many people. From stay-at-home dads to career women, the old ways of doing things is changing and with it so are people s views of themselves, and, therefore, the products and services that meet their needs. It s not all new age though, within this trend is also the counterperspective of people seeking more traditionally masculine and feminine products Personal space and time the pace of modern life and all the demands it brings means that many people are seeking to create their own bubble of space and time where they are in control, are able to relax and unwind, and are free from the constant flow of things to do, even if it is just for five minutes Quality Seeking this is the trend towards trading up to higher quality products and services, even if in challenging economic times this is a less of the best approach Technology Uptake the pace of technological change (not just in communication, but in other areas too) means many are keen to try out the latest that s on offer and are willing to experiment in order to gain the benefits, and, for some, be amongst the first to experience them Trust or often a growing lack of it, is increasingly important and is also a very broad trend. From the breakdown in trust in institutions, governments, and companies, to concerns over specific ingredients in consumer goods, trust is increasingly a major concern for consumers, and therefore marketers as well Urbanization & Migration shifting patterns of urbanization as major economies develop and people move to where the work is plays a role in fundamentally shaping people s needs especially when it comes to CPG purchases. The packaged food and drinks needs of the average urban dweller can differ remarkably to those of the rural dweller, shifting the balance between which types of products are best placed in the market. As highlighted below, for this trend we also identify specific consumer groups 8

9 1.2.2 Consumer Groups Our consumer trends framework is both supported by, and integrated with, our segmentation of consumers into six cohort groups (with over 30 individual groups covered). Some of these cohorts relate directly to specific trends in our framework (such as Education) while others are strongly related to them (for instance Wealth groups are strongly related to trends like seeking Better Value for Money). Our consumer groups and their definitions are: Age: Kids & Babies: those aged 0 9 years old Tweens and Teens: those aged years old Early Young Adults: those aged years old Older Young Adults: those aged years old Pre-Mid-Lifers: those aged years old Mid-Lifers: those aged years old Older Consumers: those aged 55+ Busy Lives: Time Rich: those who average more than 7 hours of leisure time per day Time to Spare: those who average between 5 and 7 hours of leisure time per day Time Pressed: those who average between 3 and 5 hours of leisure time per day Time Poor: those who average between 1 and 3 hours of leisure time per day No Time: those who average less than 1 hour of leisure time per day Education Level: this refers to the highest level of education a person has achieved in their lifetime. Each group is aligned to International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED) levels: Pre-Primary initial stage of organized instruction, typically before formal schooling starts Primary typically starting between 5 and 7 years old and lasting to around 10 or 11 years old Lower Secondary basic, formal education level Upper Secondary more specialized education starting after the end of formal education Post Secondary Non Tertiary i.e. higher education college or similar Tertiary (1st Stage) i.e. undergraduate degree Tertiary (2nd Stage) i.e. post-graduate degree Gender: Female Male Urban and Rural Dwellers: Urban: those stating they live in urban areas Rural: those stating they live in rural areas Wealth Group: actual income levels and degrees of affluence vary according to the relative purchasing power of currency in each country. For full details of each country s categorization please contact Canadean. The following approximate income level boundaries were used to determine membership of the below groups: 9

10 Highly Affluent : a member of a household with annual income from the 93rd centile upwards Better off : a member of a household with a total income above the 50th centile but below the 93rd income centile within the country Moderate Income: a member of a household with a total income below the 50th centile and in, or above, the bottom 22.5th centile within the country Hard Pressed: a member of a household with a total income below the bottom 22.5th centile within the country Rather Not Say: results for those people who declined to provide their household s annual income End Consumers It should be noted that all the results from the consumer survey relate to end-consumers or final consumers of the products. This means the data are different to shopper data. Shopper data focuses on the actual purchasers of products regardless of whether or not they are the final consumers, instead data here all relate to the final consumer of the product Volume Units and Aggregations Where volume measurements are given the units of measurement presented in the table below are used. It should be noted that as volume units are sometimes mixed it is not always possible to provide an aggregation of volume units across product categories. In food categories this problem has been resolved by assuming that products sized in liters (e.g. liquid milk) have weights such that 1 liter = 1 kilogram. Table 1: Volume Units for the Ice Cream Market Ice Cream Artisanal Ice Cream KG Impulse Ice Cream KG Take-home Ice Cream KG Exchange Rates The following exchange rates have been used in this report. Please note the exchange rate is the annual average exchange rate for the year indicated. Table 2: Foreign Exchange Rate - INR vs. USD 2012 Indian Rupee - US Dollar

11 1.2.6 Population Profiles (for interpretation of tables and charts) In order to place some of the tables of results in this report into context, a demographic breakdown of population size is provided below. Table 3: India Survey Respondent profile (weighted), 2012 Age Kids & Babies Tweens & Early Teens Early Young Adults Older Young Adults Pre-Mid-Lifers Mid-Lifers Older Consumers Gender Female Male Urban and Rural Dwellers Urban Rural Education Level Pre-Primary Primary Lower Secondary Upper Secondary Post Secondary Non Tertiary Tertiary (1st Stage) Tertiary (2nd Stage) Wealth Group Highly Affluent Better Off Moderate Income Hard Pressed Rather Not Say Busy Lives Time Rich Time to Spare Time Pressed Time Poor No Time 11

12 2. Methodology 2.1 Introduction Canadean s Consumer Data is built using an extensive consumer survey and then ongoing consumer group tracking, all of which is fully aligned to known market sizes. Data for this report has followed a two stage process. The initial year of data for consumption and behavior by consumer groups was derived as part of a program of over 120,000 consumer survey responses at the country and category level to determine consumption rates and motivations across a range of consumer packaged goods (CPG) sectors. To provide a second year of data, the size and development of these consumer groups was extensively researched and tracked and the results fed into our custom systems, updating results and providing time series data. As part of the modeling and processing of this data, total consumption rates across all groups were then aligned with known market sizes to ensure accurate modeling has occurred, and that the worth of consumer groups and trends by category is accurately sized. The following sections detail the stages used in the initial program of consumer surveys and the development of a second year of data through consumer group tracking. Figure 1: Consumer Trends Report Methodology 12

13 2.2 Initial data are based on a large scale, international program of online consumer surveys A major international consumer survey across 10 countries was conducted in In total over 120,000 survey responses were obtained (over 12,000 in each country covered). The consumer surveys were all conducted online using strict quality criteria ensuring that only high quality results were achieved and that non-suitable candidates, such as those putting in random repeat patterns or those who sped through the survey, were excluded. Survey results are nationally representative by age and gender As part of the survey method, stringent quotas for responses by category were set which ensured that the responses gained were in line with the age and gender profile of each country covered. Further statistical analysis of the results ensured that all results were then in exactly the same proportion with the age profile and gender profile of each country covered. Parents answered on their children s behalf In order to obtain results for minors, strict quotas (covering both the age groups for minors covered in the report) were set by country to obtain responses from parents (who will often account for bulk of CPG purchases for products which children eventually consume) about their eldest child s consumption. These quotas ensured results by age group are nationally representative. Integrated with industry calling and secondary research All of the outputs and analysis of the above results are also combined with industry research, which includes a major program of interviewing leading industry executives for each category covered in each country, as well as extensive secondary research (covering sources such as trade bodies, investment community research and company research). For the 10 countries covered by the consumer survey over 4,000 interviews were conducted all with local country experts (typically brand, product and marketing managers for major brands with each country). These results provide a detailed check and crossreference for the analysis of the consumer survey results. As both of these research streams used common frameworks and were specifically designed to allow consolidation of the final results, this allows production of a fully integrated data set between consumer behavior, associated spending, and volume. 13

14 2.3 Demographic groups tracking provides time series data Time series data are developed by conducting extensive research into the demographic development of key consumer groups in the study over time. This information allows us to track changes in consumption associated with each group over time, country by country, providing time series consumer data. The demographic group update methodology is as follows: 1) All consumer demographic groups are sized and segmented. 2) The growth patterns and development over time of all consumer groups is established using Timetric s proprietary statistical service, which monitors statistical data from multiple sources, including national statistical offices. 3) The impact of this on overall consumption patterns is established. 4) Results are inputted into and processed in custom SQL systems. 5) New data outputs are verified and fully aligned with market data. 6) Publication process. 14

17 3.3 Behavioral Trends and Market Value Artisanal Ice Cream The table below shows the total value of the category and the share (percentage) of the market which is influenced by each consumer trend in the table. Respondents were asked about how often a leading indicator of each trend in the category had an influence on their consumption. NB: trends are not mutually exclusive and the table should be read as showing the percentage of total market value that is in some way driven by each trend. Table 13: India Total Artisanal Ice Cream Value (Indian Rupee millions) and Value Share Influenced by Behavioral Trends, Total Artisanal Ice Cream Value Fun and enjoyment Changing Age Structures Changing Lifestages Personal space and time Indulgence Better Value for Money Busy Lives Urbanization & Migration Experience seeking Quality Seeking Health Media Beauty Connection Technology Uptake Individualism New Gender Behaviors Aspirations Trust Ethics, Responsibility & Spirituality 17

18 4. Consumption Analysis 4.1 Consumption Frequencies by Age and Gender Artisanal Ice Cream By Age The table and chart below show for each group indicated the share (percentage of people within that group) who are either heavy, medium, light or non-user (or non-consumers) of the category. This therefore highlights within each group whether there is a bias towards heavy or light consumption of the category. Table 16: India Artisanal Ice Cream Consumption Frequency Analysis (% by Age Group, by Consumption Group), 2012 Heavy Medium Light Non-User Overall Kids & Babies Tweens & Early Teens Early Young Adults Older Young Adults Pre-Mid-Lifers Mid-Lifers Older Consumers Figure 8: India Artisanal Ice Cream Consumption Frequency Analysis (% by Age Group by Consumption Group),

19 By Gender The table and chart below show for each group indicated the share (percentage of people within that group) who are either heavy, medium, light or non-user (or non-consumers) of the category. This therefore highlights within each group whether there is a bias towards heavy or light consumption of the category. Table 17: India Artisanal Ice Cream Consumption Frequency Analysis (% by Gender by Consumption Group), 2012 Heavy Medium Light Non-User Overall Male Female Figure 9: India Artisanal Ice Cream Consumption Frequency Analysis (% by Gender by Consumption Group),

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