Mets Minors: Amed Rosario earning his top prospect label

Amed Rosario is only 20 years old and was born in the Domincan Republic. The shortstop prospect was signed by the Mets for a staggering $1.75 Million in 2012 and he began his professional career as a seventeen year old in Kingsport.

One of the things that happens with the very young prospects is that when they look over-matched by the older and more experienced competition, scouts and fans sour on them. Look at Wilmer Flores, Fernando Martinez, Lastings Milledge and Alex Escobar about how they went from storied prospects to backup players. For these reasons, I predicted that 2016 would be a big year for Rosario. He’d either earn that Top 10 Prospect billing he kept earning or he’d wind up falling out of favor with the fans.

Let’s look at his Met career:

2013 – Kingsport: .241/.279/.358

2014 – Brooklyn/Savannah: .274/.320/.372

2015 – St. Lucie/Binghamton: .253/.302/.329

In 2016 he’s seen something of an up-tick in production (which is something of a complete understatement). He’s hitting (29 hits in 95 at bats), He’s hitting for power (11 extra base hits, including: 3 doubles, 5 triples and 3 home runs) and he’s stealing bases (5 in his first 23 games).

If one must look for negatives, there are still flaws with his game. He’s striking out too often (18 strikeouts) and he’s not walking nearly enough (5 walks) but his patience will hopefully improve with time.

One thing is sure, he’s earned his mid-season promotion in 2016 and will soon find himself playing in AA.

AAA: Las Vegas 51s

T.J. Rivera is a Hit Machine – He’s got 14 hits over his last 10 games and continues to make a case for himself as a future bench player.

Travis Taijeron has learned a new trick – He’s still got power and still strikes out too often but he’s also learned to walk a bit more often and that can be the difference between a 4th outfielder and being a AAA journeyman.

Matt Reynolds is consistent – It’s hard to read too much into the offensive numbers that come out of Las Vegas but Reynolds seems to have gotten into a groove.

Gavin Cecchini is waking up – He started slowly but he’s starting to heat up and will attempt to parlay his OBP skills into a starting shortstop position somewhere.

Brandon Nimmo shows signs of life – He’s been very poor so far but he does have seven hits in his last four games.

Dilson Herrera following suit – It was a good week for Met AAA prospects as Herrera has 14 hits in his last 10 games.

Sean Gilmartin continues to impress – He walked four batters in his last outing but the results still look like a high caliber starter.

Rafael Montero back to starting – Hopefully the Mets will leave Montero in the minors until they need him to start or wish to commit to him relieving.

AA: Binghamton Mets

Dominic Smith starting to get going – He’s got 14 hits in his last 10 games and has his SLG over .400 thanks to his second homerun of the season.

Robert Gsellman shines without burning bright – Through 5 starts we’ve seen him last nearly 6.0 innings each time and nearly have more strikeouts than hits and walks combined. With all these things, it’s hard to call Gsellman a “Top Prospect” as he just doesn’t have the stuff to maintain this success at higher levels.

Beck Wheeler is vying for MLB time – The reliever has been one of the few steady presences in the minors and seems poised to get the call at some point in 2016.

A+: Port St. Lucie Mets

Here comes Wuilmer Becerra – After a rough start to the season he’s hitting .371 although the power and speed haven’t show up quite yet.

Tim Peterson is a pitcher to watch – He’s striking out lots of batters and stringing together quite a nice profile of relief appearances.

Josh Edgin’s rehab goes well – Edgin is through 4.1 innings of advanced A and should be onto Binghamton or Las Vegas soon.

A: Columbia Fireflies

Vinny Siena has a flaw – It’s hard to be upset with a player who has 14 hits over the last 10 games but Siena also has 12 strikeouts in that same span and that is too many for the second baseman to maintain.

David Thompson produces – He’s easily the power source for the Fireflies as he’s scored 8 runs and driven in 14 in the last 10 games.

Dash Winningham deserves a new nickname – Perhaps Dash Walkingham would be a better name for the first baseman. He has 7 walks and only 2 strikeouts in his last 10 games.

P.J. Conlon hurls a beauty – 7.0 IP, 7 Hits, 0 Walks and 7 strikeouts is a very solid outing for the young lefty.

Chase Ingram stays on our good sides – Another week goes by and another solid pitching performance from a player I expect in the Top 20 of most prospect lists.

I raised an eyebrow when Rosario was assigned to St. Lucie this season, but now I see it as a brilliant decision by management. He’s experienced real success and “mastery” before moving on to the next level.

I wonder what Conforto tells us about the value of AAA in modern baseball? Seems like AA is where it’s at. (Though, yes, admittedly, he’s an outlier — but also perhaps a signifier.)

Lastly, I hope the Mets are willing to take a look at TJ Rivera as possible help on the bench this season. I don’t have much of a line on his defense, though I gather it’s not great. At some point, probably with an injury, he’ll get an opportunity.

Off-topic, slightly, but very glad that Wilmer finally got two games in a row. The ABs looked better. Any hitter needs that. He should play a little 2B soon. I still see him as a valuable piece — or, that is, potentially an important player. He’s certainly been cast in an important supporting role. The defense will always be a struggle, but it might be adequate. I still think he can hit. One thing is clear: This is his opportunity, right now, and this is the time for the organization to evaluate and make a decision. By June, the Mets may decide that they need more on the bench. I honestly don’t know the answer. This is an area the Mets could address, fairly cheaply, down the road, late July.

TJ Rivera could play for someone. Early last year I was suggesting on a Kansas City site that the Royals should make a deal for him, he would have cost them nothing of value, and he was a better player than Omer Infante, the guy they were paying $10 million.

Turned out they didn’t require my advice, and Rivera wasn’t as good as Infante’s replacement, Ben Zobrist. Still he could help someone, and the only reason why it hasn’t happened is that T. J. Rivera was an undrafted amateur.

I know there was some doubt raised about the status of Mets top prospects in relation to MLB, particularly with the draining of advanced level talent that is now in the bigs. This has left the Mets bereft of quality minor league talent — but a number of us noted that the incoming ranking of Amed Rosario would change. That time is now. Baseball Prospectus just released its top 50 mid season MLB prospects and Rosario has made a predictably sizeable jump to 15th best in the land.

Here is his upside:
15. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Why He’ll Succeed: Rosario keeps getting better, every season. His ability to put on good weight without sacrificing athleticism enables him to stick at the six and rake at the plate, making him a threat on both sides of the ball.

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Mets FO types were recently quoted as saying Rosario is going nowhere (in terms of trade). In 2 years, he will hopefully be our starting SS for a decade to come.