Political power of south San Diego to stay, says analysis

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San Diego  The future looks bright for Democratic candidates in San Diego’s citywide races as a new postelection analysis of the mayor’s race says a shift in the balance of voting power to those residing south of Interstate 8 is likely permanent.

For decades northern and coastal San Diego neighborhoods have been the kingmakers, but current population trends — particularly increases among Asians and Latinos — suggest the growing voter base south of I-8 will hold increasing sway over elections, according to an analysis by the National University System Institute for Policy Research.

For example, in the 2005 mayor’s race, 70 percent of votes came from north of the I-8. In the Nov. 6 mayoral contest won by Bob Filner, that number shrunk to 57 percent with a far higher turnout due to the presidential election.

“It really is a brand new day in San Diego,” said Vince Vasquez, the institute’s senior policy analyst. “So I think both candidates, Republicans and Democrats, are going to need to have credibility with these growing voter groups and they’re going to need to demonstrate authenticity and that’s something that can’t be bought with a political ad or mailer.”

Voting results show Filner, a Democrat who represented southern San Diego for 20 years in Congress, with a distinct advantage in voting precincts south of I-8 while former City Councilman Carl DeMaio, a Republican who represented northern neighborhoods, had trouble making inroads. Filner defeated DeMaio 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent, or by 23,222 votes out of nearly 467,000 cast.

The analysis noted that from 2005 to 2012 there was a surge in the ranks of registered Democrats and a decline in the number of Republicans. The Democratic advantage was 40.5 percent to 27.1 percent Republican heading into the November election. Independents were 27.6 percent. It also identified a surge in new registered voters — 123,640 since 2010 — and that 51 percent of them were south of I-8 and 39 percent of them consider themselves independents.

The increase of Asians and Latinos among registered voters has also changed the political landscape as they tend to favor Democrats. Combined they represent 28 percent of city voters, up from 22 percent in 2007.

The news wasn’t all bad for Republicans. Asians and Latinos in San Diego are less likely to favor Democrats as their counterparts statewide.

In conclusion, the analysis gave Democrats the advantage in future mayoral elections despite the city’s history of electing mostly Republicans.

“Democratic candidates must be viewed as favorites to win in future citywide elections than Republicans,” the report said. “But that said, Democratic candidates are only favored and not the presumptive winners that they are in some other large American cities.”

That’s largely because 55 percent of the city’s independents live in the Republican-leaning neighborhoods north of I-8.

“As prior research has shown, unaffiliated voters are low-information voters that pay little attention to the campaign rhetoric until shortly before Election Day,” the report said. “This presents an opportunity. If candidates can appeal to a majority of independents, they will be one step closer to victory.”

Shown a copy of the analysis, DeMaio said it’s clear San Diego is a changing city, but it lacks the polarization of other cities and allows for what he called a “common-sense coalition” that doesn’t vote just for party labels.

“I don’t think it means doom for any (Republican) candidate in the future,” he said. “The question is whether you can effectively communicate to San Diego’s broad communities. I’m proud of the fact that we seemed to have done a great job of that because of the sort of coalition that we were able to build, above and beyond just Republicans. And yet, at the end of the day, it simply wasn’t enough with the national trends that were at play.”