"As shown in the graph below, the [Labor Market Conditions Index] consistently leads the YoY% growth in jobs by 6 - 12 months, but YoY job growth (red) is a much smoother measure:

"....

"Since the LMCI does lead the much smoother YoY growth in jobs, it strongly suggests that YoY payroll growth is going to decline over the next 6 months or so. And that can only happen if those payroll numbers generally come in under 225,000, and probably even below 200,000 through next winter."

"While a steep decline to a stall in housing, as happened in 2014, has not always led to a stall in jobs, usually it has led to at least some weakening, sometimes slight, sometimes very marked. Since the lead time varies between 6 to 18 months, we are about due for last year's weakness in housing to lead to some weakness in payrolls."