Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Who will win

With only two days to go before South Australian's head to
the polls, many people are wondering what the election is all about. So if you
are meeting mates to watch the contest and want to look intelligent, or just
want to spend Friday in the office making yourself look like you have some idea
about politics. Have a look at my idiots guide to every seat in Saturday's
contest, with info on the candidates and some quirky facts that will make you
look very impressive to the cute blonde across the room.

Set to see the end of the 12 years of Labor rule, read below why the newspaper editors will be looking for a headline to match "Rannslide" which headed every Advertiser article following the 2006 election.

Coming up later will be a drinking game guide for anyone, who needs to get plastered to consider the idea of watching the ABC for five hours straight.

Adelaide:

Rachel Sanderson won this for the Libs in 2010, when former
Lord Mayor Joan Lomax-Smith was on the nose. The Labor party focused on the
marginal seats to ensure they held onto power and Lomax-Smith ended up with a
10 per cent swing against her losing to Rachel Sanderson. Since redistributions
in the 90s it should really be a Labor seat, but with a margin of 4.2 to the
Libs and the general trend to the Libs, it will be a positive start for them.

Facts to impress your
mates: The 14.7 per cent swing against Labor incumbent Jane Lomax-Smith in
2010 was the second biggest in the state.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 1 – Labor 0

Ashford:

This is the first of four key marginal seats that the
Liberals will need to win to gain power.The redistributions here have absolutely killed Labor. In the
“Rannslide” of 2006, there was a 12 per cent swing to Labor and then they gave
it all back in 2010 with a 10 per cent swing against the Government. Incumbent
Steph Key was a Minister in first Rann government, but lost out when more MPs
came on board in 2006. Terina Monteagle (what a name!) is the Liberal
candidate. I can’t pick this one with all the swings from the last two
elections, but with the new boundaries helping the Liberals and a general swing
set to head their way, I am giving it to Monteagle.

This is a seat that starts in the inner city on Greenhill Rd
and heads all the way to Crafers. Vikki Chapman has been there for 12 years and
the lady who reminds everybody of the lady around town with her perfect makeup
and strong perfume, while constantly making them giggle as her eyebrow
continues on in world of its own will take this seat again. Her margin might
even hit the 25 per cent margin. Standing for Labor is Ella Waters, one of the
strong contingent of young candidates at this election that both parties are
giving exposure campaign process too.

Facts to impress your
mates: Seat is named after Sir William Bragg, Proffessor of Physics at
Adelaide University, who with his son Sir Lawrence Bragg win 1915 Nobel Prize
for Physics.

Result: Liberal
Hold

Liberal 3- Labor 0

Bright:

The tightest seat in the state, Labor actually lost the
first preference vote in 2010, getting home by just 167 votes after preference
distribution.Ironically for the name of
the seat it has been the lack of brightness from the current member Minister
for Transport Services, Chloe Fox that will see this seat change hands.
Constant blunders from Fox have alienated her from the electorate and the seat
will go to Marion Councillor David Spiers.

Facts to impress your
mates: Bright had the biggest swing in the 2006 election, 14.4 per cent,
but just two elections later, Chloe Fox is set to lose the seat.

Result: Liberal
Gain

Liberal 4- Labor 0

Chaffey:

Out near the fruit growing areas of Renmark, Berri and
Loxton, for years this was the seat of controversial National MP Karlene
Maywald who helped the Labor Party take government in the 2002 hung parliament.
There was a 20 per cent swing to the Libs Tim Whetstone in 2010 and his margin
will on increase in this Liberal heartland. Wonder if he has a bet with Vikki
Chapman about who will end up with a bigger margin?

Facts to impress your
mates: In 2010 Family First had more first preference votes than Labor.

Result: Liberal
Hold

Liberal 5 – Labor 0

Cheltenham:

This is the Premier’s seat. Jay Weatherill had a swing of 9
per cent against him in 2010, but still holds the seat by 16 per cent! He will
win the seat and may even increase his margin now he is Premier. The voters may
be forced to have a by-election because I doubt Jay will stay around if Labor
get done. Up against him is a Uni student Jack Batty. Both parties like putting
up young people that will shut up and won’t complain for more funds in seats
they have no chance in.

Facts to impress your
mates: The seat was previously known as Price, to honour South Australia’s
first Labor Premier Tom Price.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 5 - Labor 1

Colton:

One of the seats that may decide if we end up with a
minority government of the Liberal party wins in their own right.Held by 4.0 percent after the last election,
the redistributions have again killed the government, reducing the margin to
3.6 per cent. People like Paul Caica as a person, mum said he was awfully nice
when he rang up on the phone, and Labor is putting a lot of effort into this
seat. But Joe Barry his Liberal opponent is also presenting himself as the
local knockabout bloke, a former businessman turned copper. They should have
used a different photo on the Barry on the posters, he is a lot thinner than
the photo suggests.

Facts impress your
mates: A state wide poll had this seat at 50/50 just three weeks out from
the election, the closest in the State.

Result: Labor to sandbag and hang on.

Liberal 5 – Labor 2

Croydon:

Michael Atkinson has been the member for 25 years in one of
the safest seats for the Labor Party. He has been there during the highs and
the lows of the Labor fortunes during that time, including being one of the few
of his party to hold on to their seat at the 1994 election following the State
Bank disaster. He causes controversy, but is loved among his electorate, being
involved in many local issues as he goes around on his bicycle. Intelligent,
witty and strange, one reason I want Labor to get back in is so Atkinson can
stay on as Speaker and continue to chastise unruly members by quoting 13th
century Westminster Statue.An opponent
of political posters on street poles he asks supporters to instead place them
on their properties. So far I have seen one on a backstreet in Brompton when I
got lost looking for my girlfriend’s house.

Glenda Nobel is standing for Liberal and her mature nature
and solid background in business and politics might see her reduce Labor’s
margin for the second election in a row.

Facts to impress your
mates: Family First candidate Nkweto (NK) Nkamba was born and grew up in
Zambia.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 5 - Labor 3

Davenport:

Another safe seat, where the party seat to lose has saved
money by endorsing a young candidate who won’t ask for much extra money or
support. In this case it’s the Labor party who have put up Lucie Lock-Weir to
challenge Shadow treasure Iain Evans. Lock-Weir is a 19 uni student in the
second year of a six year course at Flinders.Lock-Weir might receive a few votes from some young guys who like the
look of her, but Evans will increase the Liberals margin here.

Fact to impress your
mates:Talk about how despite this
always being a safe Liberal seat, Evans’ father Stan a life time Liberal, won
the seat as an independent against future Premier Dean Brown in 1986, after he
lost the pre-selection battle with Brown.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 6 Labor 3

Dunstan:

Named after one of the most famous Labor premiers,
ironically the seat is held by Liberal leader Steven Marshall. Generally who
wins the seat wins government. The exception was last election, when Vinni
Ciccarello had a 10 per cent swing against her to lose the seat to Marshall,
but Labor hung on overall. Marshall is up against Jo Chapely for Labor, who is
an expert in Aboriginal studies and speaks the Pitantatjara Aboriginal
language. Expect Marshall to increase
the margin of 4.8 per cent to around 7.

Facts to impress your
mates: Marshall won the Liberal leadership in just his first term as a
parliamentarian. He is also from the Marshall family that makes Marshall
Furniture.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 7- Labor 3.

Elder:

This is another seat where the redistribution has killed
Labor, reducing their margin from 3.6 per cent, to 2 per cent.

Both sides have new candidates, with the retirement of
‘part-time Pat’ Conlon, who has been serving as a politician part time after he
lost his spot in the Labor ministry when Jay Weatherill took over the
leadership. You probably are thinking you have seen the new Labor candidate
Annabel Digance on election posters before. You have, she twice contested and
lost the Federal seat of Boothby in 2010 and 2013.She is up against, a young vibrant Carolyn
Habib. You cannot underestimate the importance of electoral posters; when
asking an apolitical friend of mine what she thought of the election, she could
not even tell me what seat she was in. However, after some tedious questioning,
I managed to discover that she is in Elder, and that she is going to vote for
Habib “because she is the pretty one right?” Never underestimate the importance
of looks to win the swinging voter!

Whether it is as an episode of Next Top Model or because of
polices, the Liberals will win this seat, to put them further on the road to
victory.

Facts to impress your
mates: The seat is named after Thomas Elder who arrived in Adelaide in 1854
and set up the wool broker company Elder Smith and Company.He also donated large amounts of money to
help establish Adelaide Uni.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 8- Labor 3.

Enfield:

A strong traditional working class strong hold for Labor,
they have held the seat since its establishment in 1970. Attorney-General John
Rau has been the member since 2002 when he defeated former Labor MP Ralph
Clarke for pre-selection. Thirty-three year old bank executive and Prospect
Councillor Scott Roberts is his Liberal opponent, but Roberts won’t be moving
from local to state politics anytime soon.

Facts to impress your
mates: Rau when the party endorsement from Rau only after a branch stacking
controversy, which Clarke successfully fought through the courts, but still not
gaining endorsement he stood unsuccessfully as an independent.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 8- Labor 4

Finniss:

This electorate in the south of the State covers Kangaroo
Island, with sitting member Michael Pengilly having an office in Kingscote.

Unsurprisingly being a rural electorate with lots of farmers
it is head by over 10 per cent by the Liberal Party. Melanie Smart is Labor
Party’s sacrificial lamb.

Facts to impress your
mates: Sitting member Michael Pengilly is a former Mayor of Kangaroo
Island.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 9- Labor 4

Fisher:

Controversial independent Bob Such holds this seat that runs
through the southern suburbs of Happy Valley, Aberfoyle Park and the like. Held
it as a member of the Liberal Party from 1989 to 2000 and stood as an
independent in 2002 loosing much of the primary vote but holding on with Labor preferences.He increased his majority at both 2006 and
2010 and holds the seat now by 17 per cent. Sam Duluk is standing for the
Liberal Party and Labor have put another young guy in a seat they are not going
to win, Flinders University Accounting graduate Jake Neville.

Facts to impress your
mates: A former Liberal Party member, Such as apart of Dean Brown’s Cabinet
from 1994 to 1996.

Result: Independent
Hold.

Liberal 9 – Labor 4, Independent 1

Flinders:

At 26.2 per cent the biggest margin of any seat in
parliament, the seat covers most of the Eyre Peninsular including Port Lincoln
and Ceduna. The Liberals took it from fellow conservatives the Nationals and
Peter Treloar won it at the last time and will do so again in 2014. The
Nationals are not putting up a candidate, but Matthew Deane is standing for
Labor.

Facts to impress your
mates: At 26.2 per cent the biggest margin of any seat held by either
party.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 10 – Labor 4 – Independent 1.

Florey:

This is one of the seats that could fall to the Liberal
Party and decide if it is a hung parliament of a Liberal majority. Helping the
Labor chances is that Frances Bedford has been the sitting member since 1997.
Bedford had a massive majority before the big swing to the Liberals in 2010.
She is a popular local member having lived in the area for a long time and been
a member of a range of local community groups. He opponent Damien Wyld is a
smart, savvy young man but does not have local connection of his opponent. This
is a tough one; can Labor sandbag the seat like they did in 2010? I just think
the trend against the party is to big this time.

Facts to impress your
mates: Family First candidate Richard Bunting has unsuccessfully consisted
four different seats (Lee, Port Adelaide, Hindmarsh and Florey) at previous
state and federal elections.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 11- Labor 4 Independent 1

Frome:

One three seats held by independents. After years of being a
swinging seat, it became safe Liberal in 2002 when then Premier Rob Kerin
experienced an eight per cent swing. When Kerin retired from Parliament in
2009, causing a by-election, local councillor Geoff Broke decided to stand as
an independent. Labor preferences saw him home and he increased that majority
in 2010 and will win again, Locals Kendall Johnson and Marcus Connelly are
standing for Liberal and Labor respectively.

Facts to impress your mates: Former Liberal leader Martin
Hamilton-Smith made a fool of himself in 2009, when he claimed the seat for the
Liberal Party at the 2009 by-election seven days before the polls were
finalised and the Liberals eventually lost out to Brock.

Result: Independent
Hold.

Liberal 11 – Labor 4 – Independent 2.

Giles:

The only Labor seat outside of metropolitan Adelaide, it
takes in Whyalla and the surrounding areas. Held by Lyn Bruer her retirement
and the Liberals exposure that standing Labor candidate Eddie Hughes received a
seven day suspended prison sentence in for assaulting a police officer,
resisting arrest and loitering in 1983, will decrease their 12 per cent
majority. They will still win despite coming up against a popular Whyalla local
in Liberal candidate Brenadette Abraham.

Facts to impress your mates: Since 1993, the only seat Labor
has held outside of greater metropolitan Adelaide.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 11 – Labor 5 – Independent 2.

Goyder:

In the area north of Adelaide taking in Yorke Peninsula,
around the areas of Port Wakefield, Ardrossan, Yorketown and Maitland among
others. Always in conservative hands, it became a very safe seat with a massive
swing to the Liberals Steven Griffiths in 2010. Again the major party seat to
lose is endorsing a token candidate, 20 year old former local girl Elyse Ramsay
who is studying Media Law at Adelaide Uni. Help the poor girl out, she only has
86 twitter followers.

Facts to impress your mates: Nationals candidate Kim
McWaters is one of just two of his party standing for lower house seats.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 12- Labor 5 Independent 2

Hammond:

This seat was held by rouge Liberal Peter Lewis from 1979
until 2006. A former member of the Liberal cabinet he was expelled from caucus
in 2000 and having gained the seat again as an independent in 2002, reneged on
a deal with the Liberal Party to help Labor form a minority government, taking
on the role of speaker. He was finally removed from that position in 2005 when
he made unsubstantiated claims that a government minister was involved with
members of the police in a paedophile ring, support from Nationals member
Karlyne Maywald allowing Labor to retain government. Lewis did not stand in
2006 and since then it has gone back to being a Liberal seat with a big
majority to member Adrian Pederick.

Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union worker Lou
Bailey is the Labor candidate and Rachel Titley is one of two National members
running for a seat.

Facts to impress your
mates: Juts give out every detail about how much of a freak Peter Lewis
was/is.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 13 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

Hartley:

Out in the Campbelltown, Magill area it is held by Labor
minister Grace Portolesi. She won by 2.3% at the last election, but again the
redistribution has killed the government and the margin now is 0.1 per cent. It
has generally been held by the government at the time and is like Colton and
example of South Australian bellwether seat. Portolesi might have a bit of an
advantage owning to her high profile as a minister, but with the big swing set
to hit Labor, this is one of the important seats that will fall to the
Liberals.

Facts to impress your
mates: Both Portolesi and Liberal candidate Vincent Tarzia are of Italian
decent, as was the former member Joe Scalzy and bout 10 per cent of voters were
born in Italy. So just yell out “mamma mia!” whenever Hartley is mentioned in
the telecast and if anyone gives you a strange look, explain the above.

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 14 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

Heysen:

This Adelaide Hills electorate covers Mount Barker, Handorf,
Stirling and Meadows among many others. It has always gone to the Libs, but the
Australian Democrats always polled well, but don’t have any candidates anymore.
It is held by former Liberal leader Isobel Redmond, with two more young
candidates with no chance, Paul Yiallorous (Labor) and 19 year old Amy Park
(Dignity for the Disabled).

Facts to impress your
mates: Whenever anyone bags Yillorous about his age, just yell out “he is
ok for a young kid, at least he doesn’t have Facebook!”

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 15 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

Karuna:

Down Christies Beach, Noarlunga way, we have a seat Labor
seat. Or is it? At 8.8 per cent it would take less of a swing than those that
took down both Jane Lomax-Smith and Vinni Ciccarello in 2010.Retiring member, former Health minister John
Hill also had a 14 per cent swing against him 2010, and with a less well known
face, hoisting the Labor flag, a big swing against them is likely. Chris Picton
was previously a member of Hill’s staff while the Liberals Ben Caudle is a software
engineer. Former West Torrens footballer, Kym Richardson is standing as in
independent. I think the Libs will win this one you know.

Facts to impress your mates: Haven’t got much interesting
here, but could just stroke your beard and say that despite the margin you
think the Libs might just win the seat.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 16 – Labor 5 – Independent 2.

Kavel:

This is another rural electorate that the Libs have a huge
margin in. Those farmers really don’t like socialists! The seat has Lobethal,
Gumeracha and Nairne among its major population centres and the current
opposition margin is 15.8 per cent. Since its creation in 1970, it has always
been a conservative seat and the Liberals Mark Goldsworthy will win a four
term.

Facts to impress your
mates: Was the seat of former Premier John Olsen when he came back to state
politics from the Senate in 1990. Tom Playford the son of the long serving
premier stood as independent in 2002 and as the Family First candidate in 2006.
And finally a strong rumour is that the current Family First candidate Darryl
Scott is actually Father Christmas.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 5 – Independent 2

Lee:

The third seat where the Labor chances are hurt by a
retiring member with a big profile, this time Michael Wright, who has
represented the seat since 1997 and was a former member of Cabinet Heading out
towards Semaphore way, it is one of the few seats where Labor get a slight
advantage from the redistribution to have a margin of 7.6 per cent. The most
congested of all the ballot papers with six candidates, the Liberal / Labor
duopoly is affected by the standing of controversial Port Adelaide Enfield
Mayor Gary Johanson who picked up 24.3 per cent of first pretence votes when he
stood in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election. Labor candidate Stephen Mulligan
is Jay Weatherill’s Deputy Chief of Staff and Liberal candidate Liz Davies was
Liberal candidate for the Federal seat of Makin in 2010. Who is going to win
it? I think Labor will hang on because the Johanson factor will make it
difficult for the Libs to gain too much of a swing.

Facts to impress your
mates: Liz Davies drove around in a car with pink batts during the 2010
Federal campaign to protest against the Government’s handling of the roof
insulation scheme.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 6 – Independent 2.

Light:

Minister Tony Piccolo could be in trouble here, holding the
seat by under three per cent. Based around Gawler and northern parts of
Elizabeth and Munno Parra, but redistribution has again killed the government, cutting
its majority in half. It was a conservative seat from 1938 until Piccolo won it
in 2006 and he bucked the swing in 2010, holding on to help Labor continue in
government. Cosie Costa, was the losing candidate in 2010 and I never like the
chances of people having a second dip. I reckon the public feels you have had
your chance and should step aside and give someone else ago. On that terrible
logic alone, I am going for Piccolo to hold on somehow, but then again what do
I know?

Facts to impress your
mates: Tony Piccolo has the best side burns in state politics.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 7 – Independent 2

Little Parra:

One the two seats along with Ramsey that covers Elizabeth,
Salisbury and Craigmore areas, it is a very safe Labor seat held by Lee
Odenwalden with a margin of 11 per cent, the Labor party margin s increased by
redistribution, but in a seat they would have won anyway.A strong area of Labor heartland, the Libs
actually put up a real candidate in Salisbury Councillor Damien Pilkington.

Facts to impress your
mates: Sitting member Odenwaldon was born in London and migrated to
Australia with his parents in 1981.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 17 – Labor 8 – Independent 2

MacKilliop:

Mitch Williams won this seat as an Independent Liberal in
1997, beating controversial former leader Dale Baker before he re-joined the
Liberal party the next year. One of the smallest ballot papers, with only three
candidates, Labor and The Greens joining the Liberals in contesting the seat. Mitch
will win with an even bigger majority.

Facts to impress your
mates: Williams was deputy leader for two and half years under Isobel
Redmond.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 18 – Labor 8 - Independent 2

Mawson:

This is a marginal Labor seat that is on the edge at this
election. Labor’s cause is helped by the fact that the local member is a
minister in Leon Bignell, in a seat which covers the outer suburbs of Hackham,
Onkaparinga, Noarlunga and Seaford among others. A bellwether seat, the member
for Mawson always sat on the Government side of the House from 1990 until 2002,
when Robert Brokenshire held on for the Libs despite Labor forming government.
Brokenshire lost to Bignell in 2006 and has since gone on to contest the seat
as a member of Family First and now represents that Party in the Legislative
Council. Mawson was one of just four seats to swing to Labor in 2010. Stephen
Annells, a former agricultural marketer, will push Bignell close, but I think
the Sports Minister will hold on.

One the big five that could drop to the Libs and end up
deciding the election, it is currently held by first term MP Alan Sibbons with
a margin of just 2.4 per cent. Based around, Sturt, Warradale, Dover Gardens
and crossing over Main South Road into O’Halloran Hill, it is a traditional
Labor seat. Held by Kris Hanna as a Labor member in 1997 and 2002, before
resigning from the party, he won the seat in 2006 as Independent, before coming
third to Sibbons in 2010. Liberals candidate is former Ten Sports reporter
Corey Wingard, who was made redundant by the station when they lost the rights
to broadcast the AFL. His profile will boost him up, but Hanna’s preferences
will flow to Sibbons. Another to buck the trend? No I think the general trend
to Liberal will be repeated here and a one stalwart Labor seat will fall in to
conservative hands.

Facts to impress your
mates: Kris Hanna joined The Greens for less than six months in 2003 before
deciding to run as an Independent in 2006.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 19 – Labor 9 - Independent 2.

Morialta:

Always a slight Liberal seat, covering, Paradise,
Dernancourt, Athelstone and Newton it also heads up to the hills around Cuddle
Creek. Labor won it in the ‘Rannslide’ of 2006, but it had an amazing swing of
11 per cent back to the Liberals John Gardiner in 2010. Again this is a seat where
the redistribution helps Labor but won’t actually help their chances. I can see
a further above average swing to the Libs John Gardiner and he will have an
easy win over opponent Clare Scriven.

Facts to impress your
mates: Gardiner is current Opposition Whip.

Result: Liberal Hold

Liberal 20 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

Morphett:

Situated in Glenelg and surrounding suburbs it is a safe
Liberal seat held by Doctor Duncan McFetridge since 2002 and has been held by
the Liberals since 1979. His Labor opponent Tim Looker is a Holdfast Bay
Councillor and having his third crack at beating McFetridge. I suppose the
Labor hierarchy know they are not going to win it whoever they put up, so if
Looker wants to keep and trying and losing I suppose they say all the best to him.

Facts to impress your
mates: Greens candidate Matthew Carey is son of famous Sturt footballer
Peter Carey and has been blind since birth.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 21 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

Mount Gambier:

A Labor seat up until the 70s, it was held by Rory McEwen as
Independent from 1997 until 2010, McEwen only standing as an Independent after
he was beaten for Liberal Party pre selection. He retired in 2010 and the seat
was expected to go back to the Lib’s but was won by another Independent, local
Mayor Don Pegler on the back of Labor preferences. Pegler was well behind on
first preference votes in 2010, and with another swing expected to the Liberal
party, I expect he will fall to the Liberals Troy Bell.

Facts to impress your
mates: Labor candidate Jim Maher stood the party in 2002 and his wife Viv
was the Labor candidate in 2010. Must have some strong ideology because surely
by now they know they are not going to win.

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 22 - Labor 9 - Independent 2

Napier:

Minister Michael O’Brien does not want to spend four years
in opposition and like many of his counterparts is retiring at this election. But
he leaves behind a very safe Labor seat in the Party’s heartland areas around
Smithfield, Elizabeth Downs, Munno Parra and Blakeview. O’Brien’s retirement
has led to factional controversy, with Senator, and member of the Party’s
right, Don Farrell putting up his hand to contest the seat. Farrell’s
announcement had Premier and member of the Left faction Jay Weatherill
threatening to quit, and Labor eventually choice a local candidate in unionist
John Gee. Gee will beat off his opponents including Liberal Party candidate
Robert Leggatt.

Facts to impress your mates: Watch out for controversy after
the election over who is to be Labor leader in opposition. The Right are
annoyed that they give Left member Weatherill the Premiership, but received
nothing in return by the blocking of Farrell.

Result: Labor Hold

Liberal 22 - Labor 10 - Independent 2

Newland:

Another seat that crosses from strong Labor territory of the
outer suburbs, to the Liberal heartland of the Adelaide Hills, taking in
Banksia Park, Tea Tree Gully, Ridgehaven and parts of Hope Valley, while also
taking in the hills areas of Houghton and Inglewood among others.

Labor do get a boost here, with an increase from 2.2 to 2.6
percent with redistribution, but Minister Tom Kenyon was lucky to hold on last
time and I think he will be making a return to the rugby field for Adelaide
University after Saturday, when the Liberals Glen Docherty, who has been a
Playford Councillor since he was 19 makes his way into State Parliament.

Facts to impress your mates: The seat is named after Simpson
Newland who was a member of a pioneer family and wrote the book “Paving the
Way.”

Result: Liberal Gain.

Liberal 23 - Labor 10 - Independent 2

Playford:

Takes in Parra Hills, Ingle Farm, Gepps Cross and other
nearby suburbs and at 14.7 per cent Minister Jack Snelling has one of the
biggest Labor margins in the state in a seat ironically named after the long
serving Country League Premier Sir Thomas Playford who lead the state for a
record 28 years. Michael Santagata is the Liberal candidate.

Facts to impress your mates: Jack Snelling was just 24 when
elected in 1997.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 - Labor 11
- Independent 2.

Port Adelaide:

Susan Close won this seat in a by-election after controversial
Treasure Kevin Foley, retried in 2011. Young Salisbury Councillor Brad Vermeer
is her Liberal opponent.

Facts to impress your
mates: Family First candidate Bruce Hambour contested the seat in 2010 and
has stood for election in the Federal seat of Port Adelaide at the last three
Federal elections. One question. Why?

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 – Labor 12 Independent 2.

Ramsay:

On the northern border of Port Adelaide, Ramsay is another
safe Labor seat, held by Zoe Bettison who it at a by-election following the
resignation of former Premier Mike Rann. It has hit the front the page of the
Advertiser during the campaign after Liberal candidate Anthony Antoniadis made
Facebook comments about the residents of the electorate, saying they smelt,
were more interested in gambling than looking after their children, were not
willing to work and were criminals. Despite calls for the government to have
Antoniadis dis endorsed by the Liberals, Steven Marshall, while rebuking the
comments unsurprisingly stood by him. The underlying fact is it would cost the
Party to much time and money to find a new candidate and reprint posters and
campaign material in seat even Marshall admitted on ABC Radio ‘we are not going
to win.’

Facts to impress your mates: With the comments of
Antoniadis, I would stand around, again stroking my beard saying, ‘this might
be one of the few seats with a swing to Labor.’ If participating in an election
drinking game, any mention of the Facebook tirade by any of the commentators
should be worth two fingers.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 23 - Labor 13 - Independent 2

Reynell:

Sitting Labor member Gay Thompson is retiring after holding
this southern suburbs seat since 1997.There should be a swing against new Labor candidate Katrine Hildyard to
Liberal candidate Heidi Greaves, but not enough for Labor to lose the seat.

Facts to impress your
mates: Labor candidate Hildyard got caught out early in the campaign, when
she sent party workers down various streets when campaigning to check if people
were home and would like to meet the candidate. The ‘sorry we missed you notes’
were all signed with the name Katrine Hildyard, and the several obviously
different samples of handwriting was pounced on by the Libs.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberals 23 - Labor 14 - Independent 2

Schubert:

Long serving MP Ivan Venning is retiring from this safe
Liberal seat in the Barossa Valley. New candidate is manager of Barossa Fine
Foods Stephan Knoll, while Labor has picked another Uni student in a seat they
are going to lose in Adam Slobodian.

Facts to impress your mates: Retiring MP Venning is the only
person to have represented this electorate since its creation in 1993.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 24 - Labor 14 - Independent 2

Stuart:

A wide electorate which covers Wipena Pound, the Flinders
Ranges and Oodnadatta Track, with the main population centre in Port Augusta
and other towns including Orroroo, Peterborough, Jamestown Burra and Morgan, it
is a very conservative electorate. The seat was held by Peter Gunn for 40 years
until his retirement in 2010 and current Liberal Dan Van Holst Pellekaan (try
saying that 20 times fast) has a margin of 7.6 per cent. Van Holst Pellekaan’s
opponent is young Port Augusta local Josh Vines.

Facts to impress your
mates: Stuart is the second biggest electorate in the state and mobile
polling booths are the only way for some rural constitutes to exercise their
vote.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 25 - Labor14 - Independent 2

Taylor:

Another northern suburbs safe Labor seat, Taylor covers the
Defence Force facility at Edinburgh, as well as parts of Burton, Paralowie,
Salisbury and Elizabeth South.Leesa
Vlahos holds the seat by 12.6 per cent and her Liberal opponent, Alex Hyde is
the current President of the South Australian Young Liberals.

Facts to impress your
mates:The seat that was held by
former Premier Lynn Arnold was one of the 10 Labor won at the 1994 election
debacle.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 25 - Labor 15 - Independent 2

Torrens:

On the northern bank of the River Torrens, this seat covers
Klemzig, Oakden, Northgate, Windsor Garden and Holden Hill as well as other
local areas. Redistribution actually helps the Government, pushing the margin
from 7.8 to 8.2 per cent and they may need it. They was a big swing last time and
Family First also gained a large number of first preference votes, with their
preferences heading to the Liberals.Labor is also hurt that the long-time local member Robyn Geraghty is
retiring, and voters will be faced with two fresh faces. For Labor it is Dana
Wortley, a former teacher and journalist and for the Liberals Michael Manetta.
Manetta will be hurt by the exposure that he had a drink driving conviction in
1998, his blood alcohol reading 0.159. In the basis of the big swings against
Labor (despite that fact that I have called for Labor to hold onto some closer
seats) I will go out on a limb and call this one for Liberal.

Facts to impress your
mates: Dana Wortley is the wife of upper house MP Russell Wortley and is
former Labor Senator for South Australia.

Result: Liberal Gain

Liberal 26 - Labor 15 - Independent 2

Unley:

In the leafy rich suburbs just south of the city, including
Goodwood, Glenside, Fullerton and Unley among others, it is unsurprisingly a
safe Liberal seat held by shadow minister David Pisoni. It has had long periods
of dominance for each side of politics the Liberals holding it from 1938 to
1962, Labor from ’62 until 1993 and Liberal since then. Pisoni is a former managing
director of his own business while his opponent Lara Golding is a High School
teacher. Libs to increase their 12 per cent margin.

Facts to impress your
mates:At the 1973 election local
activists, upset at the quality of the candidates, nominated Susie Creamcheese
on behalf of the Happy Birthday Party. Ms Creamcheese won 6 per cent of the
primary vote.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 27 - Labor 15 - Independents 2

Waite:

Containing affluent suburbs such as Belair, Daw Park,
Hawthorn and Mitcham among others, it is held by Shadow Minister and former
opposition leader Martin Hamilton-Smith by a massive margin. This is the one
time I would like the secret ballot removed. Hamilton-Smith’s Labor opponent is
the rather ravishing Rebekah Huppatz, and it would be great to know how many
men under 30 suddenly vote Labor! Huppatz has caused some consternation during
the campaign, not being seen much in the electorate as she continues to work in
her full time role in the office of Federal MP Amanda Risworth in Canberra.

Facts to impress to
your mates: This seat in its former incarnation as Mitchell was the only
electorate that the Australian Democrats ever elected a member.

Result: Liberal Hold.

Liberal 28 - Labor 15 - Independents 2

West Torrens:

Held by Tom ‘fully sick Greek’ Koutsantonis, Minister for
Transport and Infrastructure, Minster for Mineral Resources and Energy, and
Minister for Housing and Urban Development as well as all things Fully Sick,
since 1997.It covers the suburbs that
lie between the Parklands in the east and the Airport in the West. Serge
‘Vodka’ Ambrose his Russian Liberal opponent should be given a 1000 vote head
start just because he has a cool name like Serge. But he will not win, his task
of overturning 12 per cent made more difficult by Family First directing their
preferences towards Labor.

Facts to impress your
mates: Just start playing ‘Zorba the Greek’ and tell everyone how you are
getting a new subwoofer installed in your car.

Result: Labor Hold.

Liberal 28 - Labor 16 - independents 2.

Wright:

This seat covers the outer northern suburbs of Salisbury
East, Gulfview Heights, Wynn Vale, Greenwith and Golden Grove and is easily
held by Labor Minister Jennifer Rankine. Tax accountant Lyn Petrie is the
Liberal candidate one of five on the ballot paper.

Facts to impress your
mates: Independent Child Protection Education candidate Danyse Soester was
on the governing council of a western suburbs school while a child sexual assault
took place during Jay Weatherill’s time as Education Minister. Soester’s belief
of a cover up of the incident lead to the establishment of the Dobell inquiry.