From
the Editors
The past few weeks have been very busy in the AV space and for CAVCOE,
which is why we are publishing this joint May-June 2014 issue of AV
Update.

The convergence of rapidly advancing sensor technology and software means
that fully-automated vehicles are moving ever closer to
introduction. But we think we have seen the future potential for an
even more serendipitous convergence, which might just lead to more rapid
deployment of AVs into our everyday lives.

First, Google
told the world about their new prototype vehicle which does not have a
steering wheel or pedals (see the above photo). It is intended
to comply with Neighborhood Electric Vehicle regulations and is limited to
25 mph. Having a foam front and a flexible windscreen means that it
has been designed with pedestrian and road user safety in mind. Our
Paul Godsmark wrote
an article on this new development and the implications it has for all
of our businesses – it ended up being the most popular article on
LinkedIn at the time and was viewed over 150,000 times.

Second, by fortuitous coincidence, the NY State legislature approved plans
for New
York City to reduce the default speed limit to 25 mph. Suddenly
the comments from many analysts about the limited nature of the benefits
of Google’s ‘bug car’ take on a new perspective and NYC now becomes
a prime candidate for a Google pilot program. Any success in NYC
could easily be replicated elsewhere if all that is required is copying a
law that makes a city’s roads slower and safer.

Third -- and we think that this could be a big deal in the AV ecosystem --
is the announcement by the US Energy Secretary that up
to $16 billion may be available as Advanced Technology Vehicle
Manufacturing loans to AV makers.

These are examples of how the convergence of a rapidly developing
technology with a suitable environment and the money to help fund it might
just result in a sum that is greater than the parts.

The AutomakersTesla: Elon
Musk said “In less than a year you'll be able to go from highway
on-ramp to highway exit without touching any controls.”

Nissan: ‘Self-driving
cars may hit roads in 2018’ according to Carlos Ghosn,
Renault-Nissan CEO, who pointed out legislation as being the key problem
that needs to be overcome . Interestingly enough, this deployment won’t
be in the US, but in the “pioneer countries” of France and Japan.

KMPG’s Global
Automotive Executive Survey 2014 showed a surprising lack of interest
in AVs in our opinion. For example: when will we see SDCs on public
roads?
• 2% of respondents see this within 5 years
• 4% within 5 to 10 yrs
• 25% within 10 to 20 yrs
• 40% greater than 20 yrs
• 31% NEVER! (our emphasis)

The
Automakers and Google
GM: “Anybody
can do anything with enough time and money” GM Product development
chief Mark Reuss said. “If they [Google] set their mind to it, I have no
doubt” that they could become “a very serious competitive threat.”
…but the caveat seems to be ‘eventually’.

Soon after the Google ‘bug’ was launched we
found out from Google themselves that as people become more trustworthy of
their freeway driving technology, they
cannot be trusted to take back control when needed. Or as
Nathaniel Fairfield put it: “people go from plausible suspicion to way
overconfidence.” The new prototype ‘bug’ is therefore being
designed to take over the entire driving task and not require any
human-machine switching.

Bill Shuster and Carnegie Mellon’s demonstration
of their driverless vehicle to members of Congress in Washington was
going well until one of the delegates hit the big red button whilst
stationary and unfortunately brought demonstrations to a premature end.
The more legislators are exposed to this technology, the better the
chances that they will understand it and make well-informed decisions.Thought
Development/Research/AcademiaThis year’s World Cities Summit carried on from
last year and explored the potential impacts of AVs. Singapore-MIT
research suggests that AVs could reduce urban traffic by up to 80%,
and they are planning to test their low-speed vehicles in residential
areas this year They are in talks to do trials on the tourist island
of Sentosa.Not
as off the wall as you might thinkOn the discussion forum Reddit, the question was
asked ‘In the future, will spam traffic
be a problem?’. Please pause and think about this and the
concept of ‘spam traffic’ – it may sound crazy at first, but this
could be a very real problem one day.

September 7-11, 2014:, ITS
World Congress Detroit. Paul Godsmark's presentation is on
Automated Vehicle Zones

September 14-17, 2014: IEEE
80th Vehicular Technology Conference in Vancouver. There is a
full-day track on automated vehicles and connected vehicles. Barrie
Kirk is the Co-Chair and will open the day with a keynote presentation on
"Three Technologies that will change the World". Paul
Godsmark will moderate the session on AVs and will also be a speaker.
A flyer on the conference is available here.

September 28 - October 1, 2014: Transportation
Association of Canada's Annual Conference and Exhibition in
Montreal. Barrie Kirk is speaking on the impact of AVs on the
transportation infrastructure. Paul Godsmark is presenting on
Automated Vehicle Zones.