圖表

World demand to rise 3.5% annually through 2018

Global consumption of merchant and captive hydrogen is forecast to increase
3.5 percent annually through 2018 to 290 billion cubic meters, driven by
strong growth in petroleum hydrotreating and hydrocracking refining
operations. These advances will be particularly robust in developing countries
as per capita vehicle ownership rates rise, and as countries adopt and enforce
more stringent emissions regulations to combat increasingly difficult air
pollution problems. Merchant supply from industrial gas companies will expand
rapidly as hydrogen consumption in upgraded petroleum refineries exceeds the
refineries' available captive resources.

Low-sulfur fuel regulations to continue driving demand

Over the past two decades, the adoption by many developed countries of motor
vehicle emissions regulations has led to the need for low-sulfur and
ultra-lowsulfur gasoline and diesel fuels, greatly increasing the consumption
of hydrogen in refinery hydrotreating operations. This trend will continue to
drive demand going forward as developing countries begin to combat
persistently difficult air quality issues by implementing and/or enforcing
more stringent fuel sulfur regulations. While tightening motor vehicle fuel
sulfur regulations will be one factor driving refinery hydrogen demand in
developing countries, growth will also be aided by rising per capita vehicle
ownership rates and higher demand for fuels. Additionally, the shift in the
world's crude oil supply toward heavier crudes and rising demand for
distillate fuels globally will support the increased use of hydrogen in
refinery hydrocracking processes to break down heavier petroleum fractions
into more valuable products.

Outside of refining, hydrogen is used in the production of many important
chemicals; as well as in the metals, electronics, and thin-film solar
industries; edible oil processing; and a variety of other applications.
Although the chemical industry is the largest of these, more rapid growth is
expected in several smaller markets. Additionally, the adoption of hydrogen
energy technologies continues to proceed worldwide, and fuel cells will see
greater mainstream adoption. Despite technical and other challenges, the
emergence of a hydrogen market for fuel cell powered vehicles remains a
possibility.

China to claim largest share of new demand growth

Although the United States will remain the world's largest hydrogen consuming
country, the greatest share of growth through 2018 is expected to occur in
China. With air pollution in urban areas an increasingly pressing issue, China
is expected to aggressively target motor vehicle emissions by enacting and
enforcing tighter fuel sulfur regulations. This will drive hydrogen demand
growth as the country's refining industry increases its ability to produce
low-sulfur fuels. Other emerging markets such as India and Russia will also
seek to export ultralow- sulfur fuels, and will see among the fastest gains in
hydrogen demand. In most developed countries, demand for hydrogen will grow
only modestly, if at all. The refining and chemical industries of Western
Europe and Japan face stagnant domestic markets as well as strong competition
from other areas. The US and Canada, however, will benefit from relatively
plentiful raw material supply and the advanced state of their refining
industries, allowing for healthier growth in hydrogen demand.