What happened will be told by box scores and beat reporters. How it happened, how it felt when it happened, that's what sports and sports writing are about here.

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Fixing a Hole

I was a vocal critic of the Mets front office last after
letting Jose Reyes walk. Not only did Jose provide nearly all of the little
excitement the Mets created last year, but he was an everyday shortstop—a
position of undeniable import—and the Mets had no true heir apparent. Sure Ruben
Tejada was fine as a fill-in, but he had hardly looked the part of a 162 game
starter. To put it frankly, I was not anticipating a day when Mets concession stands would feature a $12 Tejada, Reuben sandwich, or any other punny variation on his name.

Until recently, while I took what little solace I could in
the fact that, while the Mets have had great difficulty at fielding a regular
shortstop (our defense Valdespins me right right, like a record baby right round), at least I had been right all along, and the Mets had been fools to
let Jose walk.

Today, after looking at the numbers, I am going to have to make an imaginary phone call to Sandy Alderson and apologize to him for all of the very crass and mean imaginary things I said to imaginary him. Today, after looking at the numbers, I appear to have been wrong.

Now, for the sake of full disclosure, let me say that I am
not a sabermetric guy. I know what UZI and WAR are—and that they would be
beneficial in factoring in these findings—I don’t particularly care for high-falluting
mathematics. So I looked at basic stats to compare Jose and the Mets who have
ultimately replaced him. Offensively: hits, homeruns, RBI, runs, steals and at
bats. Defensively: innings, total chances, putouts, double plays, errors and
fielding percentage.

To start, I had the unenviable task of identifying who exactly has been
on the shortstop carousel for the Mets this season, and the list I came up
with, and totall innings spent at the position, is as follows:

David Wright 6 innings

Jordany Valdespin 18.2 innings

Justin Turner 45 innings

Omar Quintanilla 111 innings

Ronny Cedeno 138 innings

Ruben Tejada 230 innings

Pop Corn Vendor (just kidding)

Meanwhile, in disappointing Miami, Jose Reyes has accounted
for 545 total innings of shortstop baseball, which matches up just three
innings short of the 548 innings I have accounted for in innings played by Mets
shortstops—likely the result of games in which the bottom of the ninth was not
played.

Next, I sought to figure out the stats
that the aforementioned Mets provided offensively while manning short, some of
the numbers for which—since Turner and Valdespin are utility players—are largely
accurate but may have excluded appearances as pinch hitters for the starting
shortstop or at-bats taken after shifting to shortstop late in a game.

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

BB

SO

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

Quintanilla

39

11

13

4

0

1

2

6

10

0

0.333

0.447

0.513

0.96

Cedeno

65

7

15

2

0

1

7

11

13

0

0.231

0.351

0.308

0.659

Tejada

105

14

32

10

0

0

8

8

24

1

0.305

0.362

0.4

0.762

Turner

18

3

7

2

0

0

1

0

0

0

0.389

0.389

0.5

0.889

Wright

4

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Valdespin

4

2

2

1

0

1

1

0

1

0

0.5

0.5

1.5

2.00

Total

235

37

69

19

0

3

19

25

48

1

0.294

0.376

0.370

0.746

Reyes

245

28

68

13

5

1

13

30

21

16

0.278

0.354

0.384

0.738

And the findings emphasize, fairly conclusively, that the
Mets are no worse off without Jose Reyes, statistically speaking. Of the
roughly 240 at bats Mets shortstops have taken, they have scored 37 runs, hit
69 times, doubled 19 times, homered three times and batted in 19 runs. They have
walked 25 times while striking out 48 times, and have stolen no bases, while
batting .294 with a .376 OBP and and .370 slugging percentage. Aside from the
glaring lack of steals and 2:1 k/bb ratio, not bad at all for a series of
fill-in players totally lacking in
any sort of continuity. Additionally, Ruben Tejada, the starter at the
position, should he ever return from the DL, has performed admirably, batting
over .300 and accounting for nearly half of the production in most of the aforementioned categories.

On the flip side, Reyes’ numbers, in virtually every
category, were consistently worse. His 28 runs scored is about 1/4 of the 37 the
Mets shortstops have, Reyes has one less hit in ten more at bats, six fewer
doubles, 2 fewer home runs, six fewer RBI (albeit batting from the leadoff
spot), and is batting 20 points lower and getting on base at a lower rate of
.354. His saving grace, to the extent that there has been one, is that he has
five triples, strikes out far fewer than Mets short stops (about half as many
times) and has stolen 16 bases to the Mets one. Steals, however, are not a
major part of the Mets gameplan—they are last in the majors in stolen bases—and
it can be argued that Turner aside, none of the Mets SS are lacking in speed,
rather the management is lacking in desire to utilize it.

Even with the difference in steals, the offensive numbers
indicate a virtual push—the Mets shortstops homers and doubles actually result
in a higher slugging percentage than does Reyes' combo of doubles and triples,
and the Mets reach base more frequently and hit for a better average. While the
strikeout statistic is troubling, it is also likely inflated by the fact that
pinch hitters are far more likely to strikeout, and a decent number of the Mets
at-bats from shortstops have been the result of pinch hit attempts after
defensive replacements or late game roster adjustment.

Even if the numbers are at worst a push offensively,
surely the undoing of the Mets shorststops, comparatively speaking, would be
their fielding? After all, nearly a million Met fans suffered bruised knuckles
and deep bone bruises after Jorany Valdespin booted two sure fire double-plays
against the Nationals last week. But the numbers once again indicate that, even
in spite of Valdespin’s buckner-esque defense—and yes it is that bad—on the whole,
the Mets shortstop platoon has performed at nearly the same level as Reyes.

G

GS

INN

TC

PO

A

E

DP

Pct

Turner

7

5

45

24

6

18

0

4

1

Wright

1

0

6

2

0

2

0

0

1

Tejada

27

27

230

111

34

75

2

15

0.982

Cedeno

17

16

138.1

50

12

36

2

8

0.96

Quintanilla

13

13

111

50

11

37

2

10

0.96

Valdespin

4

1

18.2

11

3

5

3

2

.727

Total

69

62

548.3

248

66

173

9

39

0.938167

Reyes

61

61

545

264

88

170

6

42

0.977

Reyes has had 264 chances in the field, resulting in 88
putouts, 170 assists, 42 double plays and six errors, good for a .977 fielding
percentage.

Alternatively, Mets shortstops have taken 248 chances,
made 66 putouts, 173 assists, 39 double plays, committed 9 errors and fielded
at a percent of .938. Not dissimilar, especially considering the fewer
chances. Additionally, the Mets double play numbers would be even higher if you
take into account that David Murphy has a propensity for only turning the
really really difficult ones and opting instead to boot nearly all routine
efforts. Even more interestingly, if Valdepsin is removed from the equation (which he will be when either Cedeno or Tejada returns, since he's not a true SS), the
Mets have the same number of errors as Reyes with only 25 fewer putouts and 5
fewer double plays, all while fielding at a percent of .980, even higher than
races .977.

Reyes is a great player having a fairly average year. And the
Mets certainly are wanting for continuity at the shortstop position. But, in
spite of all the ups and downs that this team has already weathered in its middle
infield, when all is said and done, while Mets fans may miss Jose Reyes, there
is not nearly as compelling of an argument to be made that the Mets organization
is missing Jose Reyes. The team absolutely would benefit from the presence of an everyday shortstop, but for the $10 million Jose is getting paid this year, the Mets would be better off going out and buying a (better) bullpen. Because, as it stands, the scrubs and fill ins and kitchen sink are all doing a Jose Reyes quality job at manning the Mets middle.

2 comments:

would love to see a comparison of reyes last year vs. our guys this year. wouldn't be remotely close. also, the defense provided by reyes, even this year, makes him incredibly more valuable. time will tell if the mets did the right thing, but i think we're still working off a very small sample size.

great read, thanks for putting this together. however, I think the issue with letting Reyes go boils down to this: as a player who relies on his legs, he needs to be on a team that is ready to win NOW. by the time the Mets have rebuilt enough to become serious contenders, Reyes would be an anchor, not the sparkplug he's been for so long.