This time last year Newcastle United were chasing the Champions League and
Alan Pardew was preparing to accept the League Managers' Association's
Manager of the Year award for transforming a team tipped for a relegation
struggle into European contenders.

It's grim up north: the outlook for Alan Pardew, the Newcastle United, remains uncertain following a disappointing seasonPhoto: GETTY IMAGES

With four games to go in this campaign, Newcastle are a team who were expected to be pushing for European football but are embroiled in a relegation battle and Pardew is, for the first time in his two-and-a-half year tenure, under severe pressure.

There are two lessons here. Never believe what you read in your pre-season guides and never take anything for granted when it comes to Newcastle United.

Not since he was unveiled as an unpopular replacement for the extremely popular Chris Hughton back in December 2010, have Newcastle fans spent so much time debating the ability and suitability of Pardew as manager.

He may have signed an eight-year contract earlier this season, a decision designed to stress the club’s long term thinking and offer Pardew protection from the normal knee-jerk pressures of football management, but that does not make him untouchable.

Sympathy for Pardew is in increasingly short supply, as are acceptable excuses for a dismal season which may yet end in the disaster of relegation to the Championship and the destruction of all the economic progress made since the club returned to the top flight three years ago.

They maybe six points clear of third from bottom Wigan, but Roberto Martinez’s side have a game in hand and have a nasty habit of surprising complacent teams above them at this stage of the season.

Newcastle probably only need one more win and they will be safe, but they have been saying that for weeks and the points still have not come.

Their two remaining home games are against Liverpool and Arsenal. Their two remaining away games against QPR and West Ham are, on paper, the sort Newcastle should be able to take points from.

However, when a team has won just once away from home in the league all season and has taken fewer points on the road than any other club with the exception of bottom-of-the-table Reading, it is easy to see why there is suddenly a loss of confidence on Tyneside.

Newcastle should still be able to scramble to safety and Pardew will be able to breathe a little easier, but he will still have been wounded by what has happened.

Football is a ruthless world where results make or break you. Newcastle’s have not been good enough and the buck, as ever, stops with the manager.

There was a collective arrogance at the end of last season which led to a horrendous error. In failing to strengthen the squad ahead of a European campaign, Newcastle allowed their involvement in the Europa League to damage their domestic form.

Regular readers will know I repeatedly warned this could happen, but to their credit, the Newcastle hierarchy rectified the error in January. More than £26 million was spent on five players, including three full France internationals, to make sure Pardew had the squad necessary to take the Europa League seriously and pull clear of the relegation zone.

That was almost three months ago and Newcastle are no longer in Europe – a valiant quarter-final defeat to Benfica bringing an end to their adventure a fortnight ago – but are still hovering perilously close to the bottom three. No matter which way you try to spin it – injuries have undoubtedly been a constant disruption - that is not good enough.

There has been criticism of the tactics. Pardew got rid of the 4-4-2 and 4-3-3 formations that brought them success last season and deployed a more fashionable 4-2-3-1.

The major problem is, it does not seem to work. Mainly because Papiss Cisse – their only fit specialist striker – is not comfortable as a lone frontman and Hatem Ben Arfa, the squad’s only natural No 10, has been injured.

But there are also issues with other players being used out of position, including central midfielder Moussa Sissoko, who has been asked to play in a more attacking role behind Cisse since arriving from Toulouse.

To make matters worse, Newcastle have also lost their annual cup final, the parochial but extremely intense Tyne-Wear derby with Sunderland. In the process, Pardew became the first Newcastle manager to lose at home to the enemy in 13 years, as the Paolo Di Canio's side secured their biggest win over their neighbours since 1979.

The defeats to Benfica and Sunderland inside the space of just four days have completely altered perceptions. Had Newcastle won one of the two, Pardew would not be in this position as his team would either be in the semi-finals of the Europa League or safe from relegation.

Derby defeats cause hysteria. Reason and understanding are two of the first casualties and Pardew, who had been largely spared criticism because of the goodwill generated by last season’s unexpected success, is now walking with a target on his back and everyone in this football-infatuated city is armed with an opinion.

He does not deserve to be sacked, but that does not mean he will not be. Fairness is not generally a consideration in managerial dismissals.

Managing director Derek Llambias and owner Mike Ashley were right to push for stability and long term planning, but even if Pardew can lead his team to safety he will have to carry the can for this disappointing season and make sure it does not sink him. His position is under scrutiny, on the terraces, in the city’s pubs and clubs, and in the boardroom

Newcastle will strengthen again in the summer and, hopefully, this spending spree will include the feel good factor generated by the return of their former No 9 and local lad, Andy Carroll from Liverpool. Either way, Newcastle are in desperate need of another striker, which is their priority position to fill.

But Pardew, who concedes control of transfers to chief scout Graham Carr, will have to make sure Newcastle – presuming he keeps them up - start well next season. If they are still in the bottom six at the end of November, Pardew, cannot expect to still be their manager.