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There is hope for the Reds in '07

Here is an interesting simulation based on a summary of '07 projections that is now posted on the Replacement Level Yankees blog...

Ignore the projected Reds record....instead focus on the projected number of wins required to take the central division.... 85 looks like a consensus bet according to the diamond mind guys...

There IS hope people!

Last edited by jojo; 03-31-2007 at 10:27 PM.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: There is hope for the Reds in '07

I like both sides of the argument. This is one of the best parts about the beginning of a season. Here are my thoughts:

Comparing our rotation this year to last years:

2006
Harang
Arroyo
Milton
Claussen
Williams

2007
Harang
Arroyo
Milton
Lohse
Belisle/Saarloos

I see much of the same thing. Harang and Arroyo will anchor the staff. I see Harang maintaining consistency and Arroyo falling off just a bit. Milton may struggle and be replaced, and I think it will take Krivsky long enough to make the move that Bailey will be ready by then. But if Krivsky does move Milton right away; Livingston, Santos, Lizard, Belisle or Saarloos will be ready.
I like our depth in SP this year compared to last year. Remember Krivsky having to get guys like Mays and Michalak? UGH.

Next, we have to compare the defense. Team defense is a great asset in the win/loss column. Look at what unearned runs can do to a team and tell me it doesn't effect the game. This years defense will be much improved with Gonzo. Then the Griffey position change and having far greater range out in CF will help immensely. I believe the defense alone will win at least 5 games for us this year. No more worrying about Aurilia/Clayton manning the SS position. No more worrying about Griffey not being capable of running a would be routine fly ball down. It will be a much improved look on the defensive end this year.

I honestly do not see us regressing much in the offensive department. We lose Felo and Kearns bats, but we also gain Freel and Phillips. Not too bad of a trade off if you ask me. And I would much rather put up with Gonzo as the weak spot in the order over Womack.

Next, we have to talk about this bullpen.

2006
Mercker
Hammond
Coffey
Wagner
Weathers
Belisle

2007
Hermanson
Saarloos/Belisle
Weathers
Stanton
Cormier
Coffey

2007 depth:
Majewski
Bray
Burton
Livingston
Santos

I was one who had high hopes for our bullpen last year. I had a lot of faith in Coffey and Wagner. Coffey didn't dissapoint, but Wagner sure did. Hermanson is our closer this year, and until I see him pitch, I will reserve judgement. But I don't see it being as bad as what Wagner did for us in the early stages of last season. I also like our bullpen depth this year as we have many good arms ready to step in when nedded. We have veterans that may need some rest, and those guys can take over for a while.

The last thing we have to compare is the teams we are opposing. With what I have layed out, I think our team has been defined better and is slightly improved overall. So what about the other teams in the division?

Cards- Lineup is getting older, but is much the same. The addition of Duncan for the entire season will help, but injuries will plague this team all year. Their rotation is much worse this year:

2006
Carpenter
Mulder
Suppan
Marquis
Ponson

2007
Carpenter
Wells
Reyes
Wainwright
Looper

Unless Reyes and Wainwright come out killing, we see a major weakness on this ballclub.

Brew Crew- Even without having Carlos Lee this season, the Brewers look to have a slightly better offense IMO. They are young and still improving everywhere. This team's rotation is much improved as well. The addition of Suppan and Sheets hopefully having a healthy season, the Brewers are going to be a much improved team.

Cubs- Pierre is gone, but Soriano replaces him in CF and the leadoff spot. Soriano is a vast improvement even over Pierre. Derosa replaces Perez at 2B and he will likely be another upgrade. Then Lee is another addition as he is expected to be healthy this year. Ramirez will be much of the same (underrated 3B) and then the rest of the lineup looks to be the same. I fear Michael Barrett as he had a solid season last year and is quickly becoming a force at catcher. I am not sure what to think about when it comes to the rotation. No Prior and no Wood means good things for opposing teams. The additon of Lilly and Marquis will not replace the talent of Prior and Wood, but they will still keep this lineup in games. Then you add Wood to the bullpen nd you have a potent arm to end games for you. I look for the Cubs to be an improved team this year.

Stros- Their weak point from last year (offense) is improved with Lee and Loretta. But I don't see Loretta getting much PT with Biggio in at 2B. The rotation on the other hand has significantly faltered on paper. You cannot replace Pettitte and Clemens with Woody Williams and Jason Jennings. But those two may play more games and could help this team contend. I think they have lost talent, but will still be a force to be reckoned with.

Bucs- I think their rotation is a bit too young, but at the same time, they are promising. Sanchez leads the team's offense with Bay as a huge force behind him. Not much else to talk about when it comes to the Pirates, this team can be beat, but they can sneak some wins in off you as well.

Overall, I said the Reds have improved a bit. They are better fit to contend against the Cards, Astros, and Pirates. But the Cubs and Brewers will be the teams that will create the toughest battle. They have also improved and we will be seeing classic struggles against the two.

After all that, my prediction is this:

84-78

Pitching wins baseball games. Harang and Arroyo alone made a huge impact on this team. We still contended right to the end even though we ranked 22 in runs scored. That shows that our pitching was outstanding. Just think about what will happen with this team if both those two pitchers continue to make their mark and Bailey comes in to help out. And to add to that, the defense will help these pitchers out in many games where Womack/Aurilia/Clayton and having Junior in CF did not. Our depth is improved and we can contend with the few teams within the division who have improved as well.

Re: There is hope for the Reds in '07

I think the team has taken huge losses offensively. The loss of Aurilia, Kearns and Lopez will hurt the Reds severely.

Since Womack only played about a week or two before being replaced by Phillips I don't think it is fair to count Phillips as an upgrade over last season's team.

The other think I fear is that Harang and Arroyo are highly unlikely to repeat their excellent production of last year. Firstly, they both pitched at a much higher level than they ever had before in their careers. This would portend they will "regress to the mean" this year and perform at a level more in line with their previous seasons. This is especially true of Arroyo because he has been in the league longer. Secondly, I believe both Harang and Arroyo were severely overworked at times last year. They both had several games where they threw over 120 pitches, which is a major omen of arm injuries in the future. Narron is totally clueless on how to handle pitchers in my opinion. His comments of wanting to go to a four-man rotation scare me to death. He doesn't understand why pitchers don't all pitch 20+ complete games every year like in the good old days. Hasn't he ever studied the evolution of modern baseball?

I agree the Reds pitching depth is better than last year, I have a feeling they will need it.

Anyway, I think the Reds will be fortunate to match their record of last season, much less contend for the division title. It will take at least 90 wins to win the division this year. The Cardinals were extremely lucky to win the division last year with only 83 wins, which is the worst record in history for a World Series champion. Remember when the Reds won 96 games in 1999 but didn't make the playoffs? That was the highest win total in history for a team that didn't make the playoffs.

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