MLB Mock Draft 2.0

The Astros are going through a transition time. They have a new general manager and will be
moving from the National League Central to the American League East. Luckily, they have the #1 overall pick in
this year’s draft to help restock an improving farm system. Unlike some years – notably 2009 and 2010 –
there is no clear best player in this year’s draft. With the door wide open, pitcher Kyle Zimmer
has all the qualifications to step through that opening. Standing at 6’4 and weighing 220 lbs, Zimmer
has prototypical size. Zimmer is also an
excellent athlete. On the mound, Zimmer
can bring premium heat, with a fastball that sits in the mid 90’s and can touch
99. A curveball that is almost as good
compliments the heater and Zimmer rounds out his arsenal with a potential plus
changeup. As a total product, Zimmer
offers a very good floor and very good upside, which is a good combination to
procure with the #1 overall pick.

A few years ago, the Twins drafting with the #2 overall pick
would be unfathomable. This franchise
has been in the playoffs as recently as 2010, marking the 6th time
they had made the playoffs in a 9 year stretch.
If the season were to end today, the Twins would again draft
second. A rebuild may be in order. Drafting outfielder Byron Buxton would be a
good start to that rebuild. The Twins
have had a history of draftin toolsy, speedy prep outfielders in the recent
past – Aaron Hicks and Ben Revere – and Buxton certainly fits that bill. The Georgia prep product has blazing speed
that will serve him well in centerfield and on the bases. Buxton also has above-average raw power and
good bat speed, giving him the chance to develop into the elusive 5 tool
player. Buxton is fairly raw, but oozes unbelievable
tools. Those tools translate into nearly
unparalleled upside, something the Twins would love to draft.

The Mariners have one of the top farm systems in baseball
already and with the #3 overall pick, it should only get better. Led by their trio of arms, Taijuan Walker,
James Paxton, and last year’s #2 overall pick Danny Hultzen, the farm system
should begin to percolate talent upwards that will contribute to the major
league squad. The Mariners could use a
good hitting prospect to go along with Nick Franklin to compliment those arms
and Mike Zunino could be that guy. He’d
be far from a reach – he’s #2 on my personal big board – and there is no
guarantee Jesus Montero will be able to stick at catcher, so Zunino won’t be blocked. Zunino has an above-average hit tool and plus
power that he’s already shown in game situations. That should translate to a fantastic
offensive catcher. Defensively, Zunino
should have no issues and has a good chance to be an above-average signal-caller
with polish. Zunino’s calling card is
more his “safeness” – he’s got a great floor, despite some minor plate
discipline issues – but there’s no reason Zunino can’t be just as good as a
recent “safe” catcher in Buster Posey.

In case anyone has missed, the Baltimore Orioles are in contention in the American League East to start June. That is not a misprint. It will still be seen if the Orioles can keep
up this pace, but they do seem to be making a statement that they can compete
sooner rather than later. Top prospects
Manny Machado and Dylan Bundy – both prep players – should be ready to help
soon and adding another guy who can move up with them would make sense. That would mean a fairly polished college
player. LSU pitcher Kevin Gausman fits
that bill. Gausman stands an impressive 6’4, but only weighs 185 lbs, so he has
room to fill out. On the mound,
Gausman’s fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch 98. To round out his repertoire, Gausman adds an
above-average 2-seamer and a plus changeup.
The LSU tiger also has two breaking balls, a slider and curveball, but
both are inconsistent and fringe offerings, a knock against Gausman. Despite that, Gausman should move fairly fast
and still has significant upside, something the Orioles will need in a tough
division.

Royals top prospect Wil Myers is having a tremendous year
and should be ready to break into the majors leagues soon. Myers will join a lineup that includes other
high ceiling young players like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, and Salvador
Perez. The future is now for the Royals
and adding a pitcher that can be part of that now movement would be ideal. Mark Appel might be more raw than the Royals
would like, but there is no denying his premium stuff. That stuff includes a fastball that touches
the high 90’s routinely coming from an impressive 6’5, 225 lb frame. In addition to that, Appel throws an
impressive slider and an improving changeup.
The athletic Appel has gotten hit hard at times, but if he can figure
things out, his upside is tremendous.
That would be a welcome addition to a Royals team that has its eyes on
the playoffs, with a plan to make it there in the near future.

Rumors have recently come out that the Cubs are willing to
part with two of their best players, pitcher Matt Garza and shortstop Starlin
Castro. That apparently signals a
full-fledged rebuild. High schoolers
with significant upside never hurt in such a situation. Prep shortstop Carlos Correa fits that bill
perfectly. Adding him to the system in
tandem with last year’s first round pick, Javier Baez, would give the Cubs two
potential premium bats that could hold down the left side of the infield in
Chicago for years to come. Correa has a
premium hit tool, the frame and bat speed to develop above-average power, and
enough athleticism that he will have a good shot to stick at shortstop. Even if he has to move off shortstop, Correa
has arguably the best pure bat in the draft and the best upside behind Buxton. That’s
something the Cubs won’t want to pass up.

The Padres have drafted aggressively recently, going after
players with significant upside when possible.
Elite players with that type of upside seem to thin out by the time the
Padres pick, with Albert Almora and Lucas Giolito being the two players that
stand out. Giolito has seen his stock
drop due to injury, while Almora’s stock has went the opposite direction this
spring. Therefore, Almora gets the nod
here to the Padres. Almora is similar to
Buxton in that he has a chance to be a 5-tool player. The difference is Almora’s chance is greater,
although the tools won’t be as loud. The
Hurricane commit has a great hit tool, above-average power potential, great
instincts on the bases and enough speed to stick in centerfield where he
showcases a strong and accurate arm. For
a prep player, Almora also displays an advanced feel for the game and great
polish. That should help him reach his
great ceiling and move quickly, with a lower bust potential than the average
player coming out of high school.

At some point, Lucas Giolito will be drafted by
someone. If he makes it to number 8 in
the draft, he’ll be head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of
talent. In recent years, the Pirates
have been aggressive in adding high upside talent no matter the price, albeit
under a different CBA. Even with the new
spending restrictions, Giolito’s talent is too good to pass up, even if the
Pirates have been linked to cheaper, safer players, notably Deven Marrero and
Chris Straton. The big knock on Lucas
Giolito heading into the draft has been the fact that he injured his elbow this
spring and essentially missed his senior season. That’s also the only knock. Giolito has a 6’6, 230 lb frame the screams
workhorse. Along with, the prep
righthander reportedly hit triple digits in the spring with his electric
fastball. Giolito already reportedly has
plus-plus curveball and a plus changeup. To top off that impressive pitch
arsenal, he also has better than average polish for a high school pitcher that
could help him move quickly through a system.
Even with the injury risk, Giolito stands with the likes of Byron Buxton
and Carlos Correa in terms of upside and probably doesn’t make it out of the
top 10 of the draft. The Pirates could
be hoping he makes it to the back end as far as #8.

The Marlins have been tied to Albert Almora if he makes to
them, showing interest in adding a prep outfielder to their organization. That would mark the third prep player in
third years, with outfielder Christian Yelich two years ago and pitcher Jose
Fernandez last year preceding this year’s draft. Both have found significant
success so far, so the Marlins could continue the trend, and if not with
Almore, with prep outfielder David Dahl.
Dahl has a very similar profile to Almora, with an above-average
all-around game highlighted by plus speed and a plus arm. Dahl adds a balanced, smooth swing with
above-average bat speed that should give him a good hit tool. Knocks on Dahl include questions about his
in-game power and his demeanor, as he’s been described as lazy and
unmotivated. That aside, Dahl has plenty
of talent and would be a welcome addition to any farm system, including the
Miami’s.

At this point, Max Fried simply has the type of upside it’s hard
to pass on. The prep lefty stands at
6’4, but only weighs 170 lbs right now, leaving plenty of room to fill
out. Considering he already throws in
the low 90’s as a southpaw, Fried could have elite velocity as a finished
product if he adds strength. The high
school teammate of Lucas Giolito also has an average curveball and an
impressive changeup that should be a plus pitch in the future, giving Fried a
solid arsenal. Add his immense
projectability and Fried’s upside is nearly limitless. That’s the type of addition the Rockies could
use in their farm system to give them more upside

With a poor spring, Marrero’s stock has dipped from being a
potential top 5 pick to a guy who will most likely hear his named called in the
middle of the first round. Marrero has
bounced back a little in the last few weeks and he’s still an elite defender at
a premium position, shortstop. Marrero
also has excellent plate discipline, making him a good fit in Oakland. Add in the fact that Oakland has had trouble
finding good positional players while having excellent pitching the last
several years, and the Athletics may prefer a bat in this year’s draft. Marrero’s offensive probably won’t even be
special, but he’s got the chance to be an above-average offensive shortstop
fueled by good on-base numbers if everything clicks. That would make him incredibly valuable
considering how elite he is defensively.

The Mets are in the midst of a rebuild. Adding Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran and
drafting outfielder Brandon Nimmo last year
infused significant upside into their farm system. It would be beneficial if that trend
continued. Courtney Hawkins would
definitely fit the upside bill. The prep
outfielder from Texas has massive raw power, an excellent arm, and
above-average speed that allows him to fit the mold of a prototypical right
fielder. Hawking has some swing-and-miss
in his game and will pile up his fair share of strikeouts, but he also has the
potential to hit enough balls over the fence to make the tradeoff very
worthwhile. Hawkins would fit well into
a Mets farm system that looks to rebuild a winner in New York.

The White Sox have been hesitant to spend on the draft
recently. I see no reason to see that
trend reverse and the White Sox would welcome an arguably top 10 talent fall a
bit to them at 13. That’s especially
true if it’s a college pitcher like Wacha because presumably he will be cheaper
and because the White Sox have found success recently with college pitchers,
notably Chris Sale. For his part, Wacha
stands at 6’6, 200 lbs, giving him room to improve on his fastball that already
sits in the low 90’s. The heater isn’t
the Aggie product’s best pitcher either as Wacha throws the best changeup in
the draft. To round out his repertoire,
Wacha throws both a slider and a curveball, but similar to fellow college
pitcher Kevin Gausman, both offerings are fringe at best and will need
work. Still, Wacha mixes solid upside
with the ability to move quickly and a good floor thanks to his fastball-change
up combination that should wreck havoc on experienced hitters.

Stroman is tiny.
He’s listed at 5’9, 185 lbs and even that may be generous. Despite his alleged shortcomings – his lack
of height – Stroman does not lack in the “stuff” category. Stroman’s fastball routinely sits in the mid
90’s with plenty of late tailing action.
To compliment his fastball, Stroman throws a nasty hammer
curveball. The Duke product needs to
work on refining his command on both pitches and a lack of a third pitch may
send him directly to the bullpen. The
Reds may jump on that. Starting pitcher
Johnny Cueto – who only stands 5’10 –
has had success and that may give the Reds the confidence to pick
Stroman despite his height. That could
turn out to be a rewarding pick if the right-hander can become an elite closer
quickly, providing Aroldis Chapman the chance to move to the rotation.

Not too long ago, Lance McCullers junior was considered the
top prep arm in the draft. Over the last
several months his stock has slipped some, but the prep right hander from
Florida still has premium stuff. His
arsenal is highlighted by a fastball that can hit triple-digits and sits in the
94-96 range deep into games. McCullers
adds a nasty slider with great bite and an extremely raw changeup. His lack of a third pitch and lack of even
average command at this stage has scouts already pegging him as a future
reliever. This spring, McCullers has
showed increased pitchability but the reality remains that McCullers will have
to beat the odds to be a major league starting pitcher. That said, his stuff is so good that if
everything does turn out well, he’s a front-of-the-rotation pitcher. That’s the type of upside the Indians could
use in the farm system and would give them two very good young prospects in
McCullers and last year’s first round pick, Francisco Lindor.

Gavin Cecchini is arguably a high school version of Deven
Marrero. He’s excellent defensively at
shortstop with great instincts and an above-average arm that’s extremely
accurate. Gavin’s older brother Garin is part of the Red Sox’s farm system and
Garin should follow in his brothers footsteps as a good infield prospect coming
out of Louisiana. Offensively, Cecchini
has good discipline and a polished approach at the plate. A solid hit tool should give him the ability
to post good on-base numbers, even if a perceived lack of strength and less
than impressive bat speed means that Cecchini has limited power upside. Still, he would be another solid prospect to
add to an already

Under general manager Alex Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays have
created a pattern of selecting prep players, especially prep pitchers with
massive upside. Towering lefty Matt
Smoral – he stands 6’7 and weighs 225 lbs – fits that bill perfectly. The prep pitcher from Ohio sits in the low
90’s with his fastball and can hit as high as the 94-95 mph range. Smoral also possess a plus slider and
impressive command for such a tall, young pitcher. Smoral will have to improve his changeup to
have a viable 3 pitch mix to be a successful starter, but Smoral’s upside due
to his size and athleticism are undeniable and make him the type of player the
Blue Jays love to draft.

The Dodgers are under new ownership and early indications
are that the new ownership will be willing to spend money. That could mean the spending on upside in the
draft to help a farm system that currently lacks it. Currently, Davis has one tool that absolutely
stands out, his electric speed. By the
clock, Davis is faster than Reds prospect Billy Hamilton. Davis will never be any type of power threat,
but he’s got enough strength and bat speed to be a line drive gap-to-gap hitter
with an above-average or better hit tool.
Defensively, Davis covers plenty of ground in centerfield and his arm is
playable, even if it’s below-average.

The Cardinals have great pitching depth in their farm
system, but it never hurts to add more.
That’s especially true if they could add a good left-handed pitching
prospect like Oklahoma State’s Andrew Heaney.
On the mound, Heaney has a clean, effortless delivery that allows him to
throw a fastball that can touch 95 and sits in the low 90’s. Heaney compliments his heater with a breaking
ball and a changeup that are both earn average grades but play up due to
Heaney’s plus command with his entire arsenal.
Heaney also is able to miss bats and projects as a solid mid-rotation
starter with #2 upside due to his strong pitchability.

The Giants have found good success picking pitchers
recently, especially high school pitchers.
San Francisco mixed it up last season, but that doesn’t mean they won’t
return to the prep pitching ranks. Ty
Hensley would be a good pick for the Giants.
The prep righty oozes upside thanks to a 6’5, 220 lb frame that can
already hurl a fastball that touches 97.
Hensley adds a great curveball that may actually be better than his
heater and he’s flashed a plus changeup in the past. The University of Mississippi commit is an
excellent all-around athlete that will help him on the mound as well as it
helps him in the batter’s box, where he’s quite the hitter too. Ultimately, the prep pitcher from Oklahoma
has everything – athleticism, size, and good present-stuff – that teams look
for in a prep pitcher in the second half of the first round and that’s the type
of player the Giants have developed well recently. Hensley may be next.

The Braves have a history of drafting pitchers, but at this
point could use a bat, especially one with power. Clemson Tiger Richie Shaffer fits that
bill. The college corner infielder has
plus raw power along with a good hit tool to all parts of the field. Shaffer also has excellent plate discipline
and has walked more this season than struck out. Defensively, Shaffer has an outside shot to
stick at third base or right field, but most likely will be forced to first base
which hurts his stock a bit. Still, his
offensive game is about as complete as possible, making him a nice potential
addition to a Braves farm system that is stocked more with pitching and good
defenders rather than pure hitters.

As stated earlier, the Blue Jays love drafting high upside
prep players. Balance is also a good
thing, so pairing a prep hitter with pitcher Matt Smoral makes sense. Catcher/outfielder Stryker Trahan could be
that hitter. Trahan has impressive raw
power that gives him significant offensive potential. Defensively, most scouts believe Trahan will
have to move from behind the dish, but Trahan does have good athleticism and a
strong arm. Ultimately, Trahan’s career
could go a myriad of directions but the Louisiana prep player has significant
tools and upside that an organization like the Braves crave.

To balance out taking Andrew Heaney, the Cardinals may look
to add another fast moving bat to pair with 2011 first round pick Kolton
Wong. Stephen Piscotty fits the bill due
his advanced plate discipline and good hit tool. Opinions are mixed on both Piscotty’s power
and glove - Piscotty has a strong arm
but may need to move off third base and to the outfield and his power
production has been average at best – but Piscotty should offer a safe floor
with good on-base numbers. If he can add
some power and stick at third base, he could be a long term above-average major
league quality starter. That’s the type
of prospect the Cardinals seem to develop well.

The Red Sox could use pitching all the way up and down the
system. If a talented college pitcher
like Chris Stratton makes it to the Red Sox, expect them to pull the
trigger. Stratton, who stands 6’2 and
weighs 197 lbs, has smooth delivery that pumps out three above-average
pitches. His fastball sits in the low
90’s and can touch 95, plenty of velocity for a right handed pitcher. That’s especially true because the heater has
nice tailing action and Stratton commands it well. Stratton rounds out his arsenal with a slider
that garners a true plus grade and a curveball that grades out at slightly
above-average. Stratton’s poise and feel
for pitching are also lauded. Combine
that with his above-average command and Stratton’s already good stuff plays up,
making him an exciting pitching prospect that’s produced good results against
the SEC this year.

The Rays have had one of the top farm systems in baseball
for years. Generally, it’s been filled
with athletic outfielders and great young pitching prospects. Farmhands with significant power potential
haven’t been as prevalent. To change
that, the Rays could draft college first baseman/outfielder Victor Roache. Roache has some of the best raw power and
usable game power in the entire draft.
Coming with that power is some swing-and-miss, but it’s not a major red
flag for Roache. What is a red flag was
his injured wrist that required complicated surgery and prevented him from
playing this past spring. Still,
Roache’s upside is an absolute masher, even if that bat doesn’t come with
batting titles. Teams will gladly accept
that tradeoff, whether it comes from a corner outfield spot, where Roache may
be able to stick, or first base, Roache’s likely defensive destination.

The Diamondbacks have a farm system that oozes with
pitching, led by Tyler Skaggs, Trevor Bauer, and Archie Bradley. This late in the first round, when the best
player available becomes less obvious, it could be an easy decision for Arizona
to target a hitter. Third baseman Corey Seager can just do that; he can flat out hit.
The prep player who’s brother plays for the Mariners has an excellent
hit tool. He also has good power potential, and while he plays shortstop now,
he’s big enough that third base will be his future home. There, Seager should be above-average
defensively. Putting it all together,
the prep player from North Carolina has the upside to be a cornerstone third baseman
if everything goes right. His floor
isn’t terrible either for a high schooler and would make a good addition to the
Diamondbacks farm system.

The Brewers have back to back picks, with the second one
being “more” protected. That means this
one is less protected and a college player may be the right direction. Last year, the Brewers took two college
pitchers, so a hitter would help create a balance. Texas A&M outfielder Tyler Naquin could
fill that role. Naquin arguably has the
best hit tool in the entire draft, showing it throughout his college
career. He hasn’t shown much power,
however, and that’s a part of his game that will likely always be
below-average. Defensively, Naquin has
good speed, but it may not be enough to stick in centerfield, especially with
his tendency to take poor routes. Naquin
does have a tremendous arm and it will play well in right field, but he doesn’t
have the prototypical power for a corner outfield spot. That’s led to the dreaded “tweener” label,
but despite that, Naquin has just enough tools, highlighted by his ability to simply
hit the ball, that he will be an attractive hitter for an organization to add
to their farm system late in the first round.

If the Brewers take a safer college bat with their first
“less” protected pick, then the natural compliment to that would be a high
upside prep pitcher. Enter Lucas Sims.
Sims has a projectable frame at 6’3, 190 lbs.
His fastball already sits in the low 90’s and can touch 97, so the pitch
should be a good one in the future as the young pitcher fills out. Sims adds a slider and curveball to
compliment the heater and both pitches flash plus at time. Currently, Sims has problems with his
command, but his smooth arm action and good athleticism suggest he’ll be able
to repeat his delivery with practice, improving his ability to locate his
pitches. If that happens – if Sims develops plus command – his stuff could
improve with his command and make Sims a front-of-the-rotation starter. That’s no guarantee that happens, as Sims’s value
relies highly on projectability, but there’s plenty of upside involved with the
prep pitcher from Georgia and that’s something the Brewers would like to add to
their farm system.

The Rangers have a great farm system filled with players
with tremendous upside. A majority of them
are positional players, so adding an arm to the system, especially a farm with
a good floor that can move quickly, would help bring balance to the farm
system. Considering the mode the Rangers
are in currently – win a world series – a quick moving player would be
especially helpful. Gator Brian Johnson
has the tools and polish to succeed quickly.
The lefty has a four pitch mix that includes a fastball that sits in the
high 80’s and touches the low 90’s.
Johnson also has a good curveball and a slider and changeup that are
both major league quality pitches. He
has great command of all four pitches and throws strikes, generating a
surprising amount of swings-and-misses.
Johnson will most likely hit the ground running and could be one of the
first players from the 2012 draft to make the major leagues.

Recently the Yankees have leaned towards drafting toolsy,
athletes from the high school ranks that play premium defensive positions. Lewis Brinson could continue that
tradition. The prep outfielder from
Florida oozes tools. Brinson stands at 6’4,
185 lbs and can run like a gazelle. He’ll
have plus range in centerfield with a plus arm to boot. Offensively, Brinson is a project. His approach is raw and his swing is long,
leaving plenty of holes in his swing.
However, Brinson does have very impressive raw power that he’s showcased
in batting practice and homerun contests.
Brinson definitely has huge bust potential, but he also has a massive
ceiling.

Pitching has been the Achilles heel of the Red Sox of late,
and while you never want to draft for need, a prep pitcher with upside – such as
Zach Eflin - would be a good addition to the Red Sox farm system. Eflin stands at 6’4 and weighs 200 lbs,
giving him an excellent pitchers frame and a bit of room to add muscle. Eflin’s fastball already sits in low 90’s and
can touch as high as 97. He adds a great
changeup, one of the best in the prep ranks this year. Eflin rounds out his arsenal with a curveball
that flashes plus at time but is loopy and slurvy at other times. Eflin’s stock was skyrocketing this spring
until an injury sidelined him for April but he’s since been cleared and given a
clean bill of health. Eflin got plenty
left to prove but also has plenty of upside, making him an attractive option in
the back end of the first round.