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Friday House Line: A Republican wave?

Reps. Charlie Melancon (D-La.), Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and Mike Castle (R-Del.) are vacating their seats to make runs at the Senate, resulting in open seat races that rank among the most competitive contests in 2010. AP photos

With election day 2009 rapidly approaching, this is the last House Line limited to just 10 races. And, it couldn't come a moment too soon.

The playing field for 2010 continues to expand as Republicans sense opportunity in the national landscape and Democrats look to stay on offense enough to build a bulwark against a possible wave.

The Cook Political Report lists 105 seats as potentially competitive with the vast majority of those -- 78 -- controlled by Democrats. The Rothenberg Political Report is more skeptical of such a large playing field but of the 48 seats they list as competitive, 31 are currently held by Democrats.

A quick glance at the races that just missed this month's House Line is dominated by Democratic seats including two in Ohio (the 1st and the 15th), Mississippi's 1st, Pennsylvania's 7th and Idaho's 1st. Democrats have their opportunities as well -- Pennsylvania's 6th, for one -- but they are fewer and farther between, the natural result of winning 50+ House seats in the last two elections.

All of that is to say that while the seats that made the top 10 this month are relatively evenly split -- six Democratic seats, four Republican seats -- the next 10 districts that will come onto the Line when we grow it to 20(!) later this year will largely be Democratic-controlled.

As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties in 2010. Kudos and critiques are welcome in the comments section below.

Without further ado, to the Line!

Coming off the Line: Pennsylvania's 6th district, Pennsylvania's 7th district

10. Colorado's 4th district (Democratic-controlled): State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) is touted by national Republicans as a star although his fundraising in the third quarter -- $189,000 raised, $273,000 on hand -- wasn't particularly impressive. Still, freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D) won this swing district thanks to Rep. Marilyn Musgrave's unwillingness to curtail her profile as a social conservative hero. Markey will need to win the seat in her own right in 2010 and could face a tough dynamic in a state that seems to be moving from blue back to purple. (Previous ranking: 9)

9. Maryland's 1st district (D): This race -- a rematch of the 2008 general election -- isn't likely to change much over the next year. State Sen. Andy Harris (R) managed to lose a district to Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) last November despite its strong Republican tilt. Republicans argue that Harris, a conservative firebrand, has become a better candidate and won't alienate moderate Republicans like he did in 2008. But, beating incumbents is not an easy thing and Kratovil is paying attention. (Previous ranking: 7)

8. Alabama's 2nd district (D): By the numbers, this southern Alabama district is a tough hold for any Democrat. President Obama won just 37 percent of the vote in the seat even as Rep. Bobby Bright (D), the former mayor of Montgomery, won by 2,000 votes. Republicans insist Bright can't do it again, pointing out that the black vote -- African Americans make up 31 percent of the district's residents -- will almost certainly be lower in 2010 than it was in 2008. But, Bright has a bipartisan appeal thanks to his past service as mayor and won't be easy to dethrone. (Previous ranking: 6)

7. New Mexico's 2nd district (D): Former representative Steve Pearce (R) collected north of $500,000 in third quarter fundraising, a total that affirmed his status as one of the strongest challengers in the Republican stable. We continue to believe that Rep. Harry Teague's (D) vote in favor of cap and trade legislation will haunt him in this oil and gas-heavy southern New Mexico district but Teague's personal wealth -- he put nearly $2 million into the 2008 race -- is an X-factor that can't be disregarded. (Previous ranking: 4)

6. Virginia's 5th district (D): Republicans got their man when state Rep. Rob Hurt -- brother of New York Post political reporter Charlie Hurt -- announced his candidacy for this conservative-minded Southside district currently held by Rep. Tom Perriello (D). Perriello's win in 2008 -- by all of 700 votes -- was the result of an extremely high black turnout in a district that is 23 percent African American and a weaker-than-weak campaign run by then Rep. Virgil Goode (R). Perriello has to run on his own record -- including a vote for the cap and trade measure in the House -- this time around. A tough hold. (Previous ranking: N/A)

5. Illinois' 10th district (R): This wealthy North Shore district is a rare example of a race where a number of quality candidates are in the race for both parties. While Rep. Mark Kirk (R), who is giving up the seat to run for the Senate, must do well in his home district to be viable statewide, this is a solidly Democratic district where there will likely be a lot of ticket- splitters -- backing Kirk for Senate and the Democratic nominee for House. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Louisiana's 3rd district (D): Senate Democrats' gain was House Democrats' loss in this southeastern Louisiana district that Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is vacating to challenge Sen. David Vitter (R). Louisiana races are notoriously late/slow to develop and both parties seem headed to contested primaries. But, President Obama won only 37 percent of the vote in the 3rd in 2008 so Republicans have to be given an edge at the moment. (Previous ranking: 2)

3. Louisiana's 2nd district (R): It's hard for us to imagine that Rep. Joseph Cao (R), who won the upset race of the 2008 cycle against scandal-tarred Bill Jefferson (D), can overcome the overwhelming Democratic advantage in this New Orleans-based seat. Cao must hope Democrats, who are falling all over themselves to run for the seat, bruise each other so badly in the primary that he can sneak by in the general. (Previous ranking: 1)

2. Delaware's At-Large (R): Rep. Mike Castle's (R) surprising decision to run for the Senate leaves former lieutenant governor John Carney (D) in the catbird's seat. Carney was an even-money bet to win the seat even if Castle ran for re-election and now he is a considerably stronger favorite. A number of Republicans are mentioned but no one has stepped forward yet and every day that passes improves Carney's chances of winning. (Previous ranking: N/A)

1. New York's 23rd district (R): Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative party nominee Doug Hoffman are in a dead heat. Republican Dede Scozzafava is just plain dead. No matter who wins this special election, it's not going to be the GOP nominee. That said, if Hoffman wins, he will caucus with Republicans and vote with them a solid majority of the time. (Previous ranking: 3)

Funny you should mention a possible correlation between Palm free PR lunches and media spin... I alluded to that notion in a post about the unpublicized war on free, over-the-air broadcast TV on the "tvnewscheck.com" site just yesterday.

Such telecom policy stories don't get covered when there's a preoccupation with who's up and who's down, to the exclusion of an examination of candidates actually stand on the issues affecting people, or if they've taken a stand at all.

While you're here, remember your comment to me about having the "last laugh"? Well, it's no laughing matter, but posts like the one linked below were totally blocked until recently, eliciting an apparently "spoofed page" response stating, "held for blog owner."

I can only hope that means some big and positive changes are in store at certain "multi-agency coordinated action programs" and perhaps some justice for those running some very undemocratic and inhumane "ops" that have physically and professionally ruined many good Americans...

...some of whom continue to be held hostage in their own homes to government-protected, community-stalking vandals and cat burglars, part of a nationwide, covert, federally-spawned grassroots Gestapo.

CC is simply seeking to attract eyeballs with his "Republican wave?" headline.

Now, I grant you that Republicans will probably be more energized to go to the polls in 2010. So a swing based on the base turnout differential may well happen, but I guess that might be somewhat mitigated by ongoing demographic change helping the Dems.

But are the Republicans making any new converts? Hardly. Their congressional ratings are a good deal worse than the Dems (14-71 vs 41-52).

So all this base anger and mobilisation strikes me as rather deceptive.

And what about the three '09 races? Inevitably pundits will read major national implications into those results. Which strikes me as rather silly and indicative of breathless punditry.

To style them as a referendum on Obama is certainly smart pro-GOP spin, yet it doesn't make it anymore true. But certainly there are lessons to be learnt: Deeds's rural Bluedogism no longer being a feasible strategy in such purple states as VA. And that even in the North-East moderate Republicans are being eaten by their own.

I think of it as more a correction than a wave. Democrats won some seats that they're unlikely to hold. More than a ripple, less than a tsunami (1994 was one of those). Consider CC's top 20. 5 out of the top 10 are held by Republicans and most of the next 10 held by Democrats. So, call it something like a 14 - 6 or 13 - 7 split.

I may be a bit of a natural contrarian. When it's a mutual admiration society around here on either side, I'm going to play the devil's advocate.

Rep. Bobby Bright, D-Ala., has posted a statement on his website about the $1.05 trillion House Health Care Reform Bill, saying he can't back the legislation because it creates a government option and could hurt small businesses. (Snip) ''From the beginning of this debate, I have been opposed to the government option and any legislation that puts additional burdens on our small businesses and tax-paying citizens. H.R. 3962 contains a government option and surcharges

How true. Here's a challenge for those who think Republican gains are a fantasy.

==

But CC isn't talking about gains, he's talking about some vast realignment. As throughh disgruntlement over firing Wagoner and cutting into insurance profits is enough to relegitimize the GOP and even Bush.

• Deposed Honduras President Manuel Zaleya confirms the essence what unjustly targeted citizens worldwide -- including this journalist -- have been reporting for years...

...MILITARY, SECRET SERVICES, AND INTEL AGENCIES of many nations, including the U.S., silently assault and torture "targeted individuals," including those regarded as "dissenters" or slandered as undesirables, with debilitating, health-degrading, "slow-kill" electromagnetic microwave and laser radiation weapons systems -- reported to include a nationwide installation disguised as cell towers.

ATTENTION "FIX" READERS: Please post this item to Naomi Wolf's blog at huffpost.com/naomi-wolf * Thank you. I am being blocked from posting there -- apparently by government surveillance operatives who use warrantless surveillance as a pretext to censor and harass via telecommunications.

Like I said, how fun would it be to laugh at and attack people who write stuff we know to be true?

---

How true. Here's a challenge for those who think Republican gains are a fantasy. Find me an midterm election with the economy in the dumps that the party of the president DIDN'T lose seats. For example:

"And I want to believe
In a madness that calls 'now!'
And I want to believe
That a light's shining through somehow
And I want to believe
And we want to believe"
-- David Bowie "Cygnet Committee" (1971)

That said, if Hoffman wins, he will caucus with Republicans and vote with them a solid majority of the time.

==

Pablum. Hoffman would be yet another albatross around the GOP neck, dragging the New York GOP down into endless time-wasting pelvic asides. The imminent peril of gay adoption, the urgency of legal abortion, the vitality of cutting taxes when the state already has budget shortfalls.

Having long since shot both feet to splinters of anklebone, the GOP is now aiming between their own eyes.

"I would have assumed you need to get a sealed-transcript, affirmative action education to be able to do all that. and even then"

I just love how these people think that any minority who ever accomplishes anything must be based on affirmative action. Yeah, yeah, they are all a bunch of uppity nigggers who can't ever accomplish anything on their own.

On a serious note, we have to acknowledge these very hard times for the Bush/Cheney voters. If they don't make stuff up to make themselves feel better, what are they supposed to do, take responsibility for what happened?

==

Yeah I get it except we aren't talking about rethinking what led to the Civil War or something. What the righties would have us believe is that it was Obama who chose to invade two countries and that the economy was going great until 1/20/9. Yeah the goopers are willing to edit their own memories but the rest of us aren't, and to read stuff trying to blame current conditions on the current president is simply absurd.

Not as absurd, however, as the puffery of Pawlenty and Palin. That's pure flying pigs territory.

"On a serious note, we have to acknowledge these very hard times for the Bush/Cheney voters. If they don't make stuff up to make themselves feel better, what are they supposed to do, take responsibility for what happened?

Posted by: shrink2"

The third option is to feign contrition by saying that the party lost its way and wasn't truly conservative and then propose doing everything exactly the same as it did under the Bush administration.

I think the vindication within the first year that inexperience and reading teleprompters as the sole past performance leads to utter failure across the board will keep us going until tuesday. then we will have objective proof.

"To be able to write "good news" in a right-leaning column requires distortion and falsehood..."

Like I said, how fun would it be to laugh at and attack people who write stuff we know to be true?

On a serious note, we have to acknowledge these very hard times for the Bush/Cheney voters. If they don't make stuff up to make themselves feel better, what are they supposed to do, take responsibility for what happened?

...an ideologically-driven "slow-kill" AMERICAN GENOCIDE hiding in plain sight, its victims slandered as "delusional" -- why complicit federal and local authorities refuse to investigate government-enabled crimes against humanity and the Constitution.

And those attempting to expose these government crimes are vandalized and terrorized, kept prisoners in their own homes by local, police-protected community stalkers...

...a sign of the breakdown of the rule of law in Bucks County, PA and in counties nationwide.

WHERE IS THE DEPT. OF JUSTICE CIVIL RIGHTS DIVISION INVESTIGATION THIS JOURNALIST HAS REQUESTED REPEATEDLY?

I found out where drivl, Loud and Dumb and NAMBLA were yesterday (aka the stooges):

CLINTON -- Every fall, the Red Mill Museum here hosts a haunted house. But this year’s "Asylum of Terror," has angered mental health advocates who said the theme perpetuates ugly stereotypes. The show, which ends today, warns visitors of hopeless, mindless and deranged patients lurking in dark corners ready to lunge. "Dementia, paranoia, violent sociopathic behaviors, physical abnormalities and deformities ... these are but a few of the posters imported from The Fix under the team name - extreme leftism."

The end results however, will all be based on how the economy is doing. If we continue to have 4 quarters of positive GDP, and if unemployment is dropping by May or so than you will see Dems pick up seats in both houses, and the GOP will begin to implode.

==

Nostradamus gazes into the mists and predicts that the GOP will respond to yet another loss with yet another determination that they weren't conservative enough, and they double down yet again, coming up with candidates who see Palin and Armey as RINOs.

Of course not Drindl, not unless "they" fire his editor too. Chris is just doing his job. This is a right leaning opinion column and it drives lefty's crazy, like moths to flame.

==

Please stop pretending that it's all symmetrical. It isn't. To be able to write "good news" in a right-leaning column requires distortion and falsehood because other than some inevitable relaxation of the enthusiasm for Obama's election there really isn't any good news for the angry creeps who comprise what's left of the political right.

As I have said before I think the GOP nets a pick up of 5 seats in the house max, and very well may lose a few seats in the Senate. The Senate has a lot of GOPers retiring and the numbers just don't add up for a Republican pick up in that chamber unless there is a major wave.

Also the GOP pick ups in the house will be in districts that are very traditionally Red (like NY-23, which Owens will represent for 1 year if he is elected).

The end results however, will all be based on how the economy is doing. If we continue to have 4 quarters of positive GDP, and if unemployment is dropping by May or so than you will see Dems pick up seats in both houses, and the GOP will begin to implode.

I should learn to not even read a Fix post with a question mark (?) in the headline. The answer to the question is "probably not, but isn't it fun to think about?"

The GOP will likely pick up 20 or 30 seats in the House, and maybe 2 or 3 in the Senate. (I think 57 Senators in your caucus is better than 59-61 anyway. All this filibuster-proof nonsense makes every Senator into the potentially crucial vote. They're already primadonna-ish enough.)

No way the GOP gets control of either chamber in 2010. And if they don't stop killing off moderates like Scozzafava, never.

The GOP will win 15-20 seats as the party out of power normally does in off-year elections. The pundits will opine that it represents a rejection of Obama and his policies. Then, they will speculate about what he can do to save his Presidency. Oh, and by the way, the sun will come up tomorrow morning, too.

After a week of national angst over Barack and Michelle Obama's delayed vaccination of their daughters against the H1N1 virus, Americans let out a collective sigh of relief at news that the girls finally got the shot. However, an unnamed top White House official said today that the danger has not completely passed, because the girls continue to exhale climate-changing carbon dioxide.

"A lot of people thought the president was a hypocrite for hyping the urgency of swine flu without inoculating the girls," the unnamed official said. "But, as everyone knows, the threat posed by global warming is much greater, and yet Obama has taken no action to remediate the toxic fumes that spew intermittently from his offspring, his wife and even from Bo, his Portuguese water dog."

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he "prefers employment to the alternative," said Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Senior Adviser David Axelrod have been crafting a strategy to explain why the president's own family manufactures a gas that will be severely restricted after Obama signs the Copenhagen Climate Change Treaty in December.

Historically, the nation has looked to its first ladies, learning to say "no" to drugs from Nancy Reagan and how to read from Laura Bush, but Michelle Obama's failure to treat the deadly emissions escaping from her own children raises questions about both her compassion and her readiness to serve in the nation's top domestic post.

Axelrod and Emanuel have purportedly floated the notion that the Obamas could buy carbon credits from a family with no children, thus avoiding the need to employ more extreme measures like filter bags, or imposing an alternate-day breathing schedule.

Hoffman winning NY-23 isn't really a change in party, considering all the GOP luminaries and proxies lining up behind him.

Cao should definitely be at the top of the list, his moderate voting record and work in trying to get funds for LA notwithstanding. He barely beat the criminal incumbent Jefferson in a low turn-out election. It doesn't matter how much the Ds beat each other up.

A Republican wave? Jeezus, can this guy never put down the pompoms? Your dear party is going to be so fractured by primary challenges by total loons you'll be lucky if they don't lose a whole lot of what were once safe seats for them.

Try, just once, to open your eyes and see what's really happening.

Wonder if they will fire CC when all the predictions he's making about the next election turn out to be totally wrong?