Graham: Obama visit could sink Markey

Tuesday, June 11, 2013 -- Anonymous (not verified)

President’s coattails did zip for Coakley

Sections:

Op-Ed

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Author(s):

Michael Graham

Can Barack Obama repeat his ’10 miracle?

That was the year that the seemingly impossible happened: A Democrat president came to the deep-blue state of Massachusetts and hurt the candidacy of a liberal Democrat, Martha Coakley. The president’s last-second stump speech for Coakley — described as “frantic” by the press and “desperate” by the Scott Brown campaign — was one of the key ingredients that helped elect Brown to the U.S. Senate.

Now President Obama is coming to Boston today to help pump life into the flat tire of a campaign being run by U.S. Rep. Ed Markey. Obama was originally scheduled to attend a fundraiser, but that was called off at the last second due to (ahem) “scheduling.”

Instead, there was a big fundraiser for Markey in Washington, D.C., last night, without either Obama or Markey in attendance.

Did President Obama catch a case of Massachusetts dejà vu?

I doubt it’s possible for Ed Markey to lose this race. In part because the “Let’s send Washington a message” energy that fired up Brown voters in 2010 is nowhere to be seen.

But Markey has been doing everything he can to keep GOP hopes alive, and now this appearance by the president for a race that the Democrats should have put to bed weeks ago is bringing back memories of Brown’s Massachusetts Miracle.

Can it happen again?

Some of the ingredients are certainly there. Martha Coakley was a weak candidate and not a great campaigner. Markey is even worse. He appears physically uncomfortable when campaigning, as though he’s in desperate need of a restroom.

The voters seem to sense it, too. Two new polls released this week show Markey still below 50 percent among Massachusetts voters. More telling is his popularity — or lack thereof. His approval rating is a woeful 42 percent in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This in a state where, if nominated by the Democratic Party, Hannibal Lecter would have a 50-50 shot at being elected.

Based on a cursory glance of the polls, Markey appears to be the least popular 36-year incumbent in America. And the more he campaigns, the worse it gets.

Just weeks ago, Markey had a 17-point lead over Gabriel Gomez according to a Suffolk University poll. A couple of million dollars of campaign ads, weeks of stump speeches and a debate later, his lead was down to seven points in this week’s Suffolk poll.

Is anyone truly surprised? Ed Markey’s issues, like guns and abortion, aren’t really “his issues.” They’re issues his U.S. Senate campaign picked to highlight Gomez’s links to the GOP. “I’m A Democrat And My Opponent (Mostly) Isn’t!” may be enough to win an election in machine-run Massachusetts, but it’s hardly a rousing political call to arms.

Wading into this miasma of mediocrity and disinterest comes Obama. Will his stumping for Markey today help or hurt?

Once again, this seems a strange question. No matter what’s happening in the rest of America, this is “Obama Country.”

But something clearly is happening, not just to Markey but to today’s special guest.

The scandals “are resonating with independents,” says Suffolk pollster David Paleologos. About half the independent voters in Massachusetts say they believe the president isn’t telling the truth about the IRS scandal or Benghazi. And this was before the National Security Agency “Non-stop Surveillance of Americans” story broke.

Gomez supporters say they feel the momentum. Democrats admit privately that Markey will have to be dragged across the finish line by the party machine, and are rolling up their sleeves.

But the fact that a whistle-stop by Barack Obama is a marginal event in Massachusetts speaks volumes about this political moment.

Listen to Michael Graham noon to 3 p.m. weekdays on WCRN-AM (830). Follow him on Twitter @IAMMGraham or at www.michaelgraham.com[1].