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Can Lightning Strike Twice For 'Elysium' Director Neil Blomkamp?

District 9 was the kind of movie that studio executives don’t see coming. Made for only $30 million, the 2009 sci-fi film had no big name stars and addressed alien invasion through an apartheid lens. It slipped into theaters in Augusts during a summer dominated by films like Harry Potter, Transformers and The Hangover. SonySony probably would have been happy with the movie eventually crossing the $100 million mark globally. Instead District 9 earned $210 million and became on of the most talked about films of the year.

Now Sony is hoping lightening will strike twice for District 9 director Neil Blomkamp. Elysium is the South African native’s second film. Like District 9 it’s a sci-fi movie with a political message about the haves and have nots. But this time, there’s a lot more at stake. Instead of a $30 million budget, Elysium cost an estimated $115 million. And everyone involved could really use a hit.

Since leaving the Bourne franchise after 2007′s The Bourne Ultimatum, Damon has focused on lower budget movies but outside of True Grit in 2010, none of them have been major hits. The Western earned $251 million on a budget of $28 million and was nominated for 10 Academy Awards. His most recent film, We Bought a Zoo, did fine bringing in $120 million at the global box office.

Sony could also use some of that District 9 magic right now. The studio’s highest-grossing 2013 film so far is Will Smith’s After Earth which has brought in $244 million on a budget of $130 million. But with only about half of those receipts going to the studio and the cost of Sony’s marketing spend on the film, After Earth will struggle to break even.

Exhibitor Relations expects Elysium to open No. 1 with $36 million but it will be in a tight race with Disney’s new animated movie Planes (which is getting terrible reviews). If Elysium earns $36 million, that will be about the same as another recent sci-fi film with a high-profile star earned opening weekend. Tom Cruise’s Oblivion earned $37 million opening weekend and went on to bring in $286 million at the global box office. With a $115 million budget, Elysium will have to do better than that to be considered a serious hit.

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