Households' Saving Mobility in Poland

In this paper we analyse the saving mobility of Polish households, e.g. the mobility of households between classes of different saving rates. The analysis is based on the household budget panel data of 3001 Polish households surveyed in the same month during four consecutive years. The panel sample group was selected by authors from 30 000 households surveyed by Polish Central Statistical Office each year. We apply the Markov mobility matrices. The long term ergodic structure of households with regard to saving rates is estimated. It illustrates the probability of a household to fall into one of the saving rates range. Our results show that during four consecutive years (1997-2000), one third of the households which saved less than 20% of the household disposable income remained in their class. In the class of households that saved more than 20% of the household disposable income half of the households kept these high saving rates. In the long term, the probability of falling into a group of households with lowest saving is 0.2. Groups falling into -20% to -5% and -5% to 5% saving rates would be the least numerous. The highest probability (0.3) was to get into a group that saved more than 20% of the household disposable income. It shows the tendency towards polarization of the households with regard to saving rates.