Sam Stovall of S&P Capital IQ has a nice analogy in his latest note on the stock market.

“Like an over-tired toddler resisting a nap, the S&P 500 continues to fight rather than surrender to the exhaustive callings of an overdue correction,” Stovall writes.

“Encouraged by a rebound in S&P 500 Q1 EPS growth expectations, now at 1.7% versus the earlier estimate of a 1.2% decline, combined with a stuttering stair-step ascent in economic growth, both the S&P 500 and DJIA are closing in on all-time highs.”

Photo credit: Getty Images

Full disclosure: Getty’s caption indicates this toddler is crying ahead of a vaccination, not necessarily because it’s nap time.

“This move higher was supported by the Dow, but not the Nasdaq or Russell 2000. While remaining above the 1834-1850 area, we think the ’500′ will soon break to new all-time highs. However, we think upside gains in the S&P 500 may be muted, should the Nasdaq and Russell continue not participate.”

The economy’s leading indexes were pointing to a slowdown before bad weather hit earlier this year — but there is much more to the economy’s weakness than weather. Co-Founder and COO of the Economic Cycle Research Institute Lakshman Achuthan discusses. Photo: Getty

The Dow Transportation average is up 0.9% and is trading near its record closing level, reached on April 22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been flirting with record territory, but is too wobbly to hang on to gains today.

Do you see where we are going with this? The Dow Theory - which states that when both the Industrials and Transports rally and reach highs in tandem, markets are poised for future rally.

Scotland — the country that gave the world Scotch whiskey and the West Highland White terrier — may have more to lose than the U.K. if a national referendum on its independence garners enough support, according to Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday.

While there are significant uncertainties associated with Scottish arrangements post-independence, an ‘A’ rating is perhaps the most likely at the outset, but with risks tilted to the downside.

On the other hand, the impact of Scotland’s independence on U.K.’s rating is likely to be muted given its small economic size relative to the U.K. The vote to decide on the country’s sovereignty is scheduled for Sept. 18.

Strategists have steadily been recommending more exposure to stocks on average since 2012 but positive sentiment toward stocks has weakened recently, flashing a buy signal, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Sell Side Indicator.

Microsoft Corp’s
/quotes/zigman/20493/delayed/quotes/nls/msftMSFT stock has been on a downward trend Thursday, currently at -1%, or $39.97. The company released a security update this morning to fix a bug in Internet Explorer. The security update has been available since 10 a.m. Pacific Time. On Monday, the Department of Homeland Security warned users to use alternative browsers.

Is it too late to buy U.S. stocks? Gloom-and-doom expert Marc Faber thinks so, reports Barbara Kollmeyer for The Tell.

“We’ve already had a big break in the market, but we haven’t had yet the big break in the overall market.. As U.S. investors, you have to choose the time to buy. I believe it’s too late to buy the U.S. stock market,” he told CNBC on Wednesday. The editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report blames investors for having “excessively optimistic expectations about their future returns.”

Brian Belski, strategist at BMO, sees no reason to alter his 1,900 price target for the S&P 500, but warns in a note that after a wild ride in April, volatile trading over a wide range is likely to remain the norm:

We expect volatility will remain a prevalent theme for a while and as a result, expect the market to trade in a wide range for the foreseeable future. To that end, we still see no reason to alter our current 2014 S&P 500 targets, particularly considering trends within our models, which continue to counterbalance each other. For instance, slightly higher dividend estimates and a rebound in earnings revisions are providing some upside pressure. By contrast, macro conditions remain a slight drag, while slightly lower dividend payout expectations are providing some downward pressure.

It was a mixed finish, with the Dow ending marginally lower and edging back into negative territory for the year a day after posting a record close. The S&P 500 finished virtually flat. Both the Dow and the S&P 500 ended three-day win streaks. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, eked out a modest gain for the third straight session.

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The Tell is MarketWatch’s fast and engaging look at trends and themes in the day’s markets. Drawing on our reporters, analysts and commentators around the world, as well as selecting the best of the rest online, The Tell is all about the pulse of the markets through news, insight and strategic information to help you make the best investing decisions. Got a tip? Tell us at TheTell@MarketWatch.com