Red-shift: Diffrence between 2-party unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote in current election.

161

Average

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

162

Recorded Swing

0.01

-

0.09

0.06

0.20

-0.16

-0.14

163

Unadj Exit Poll Swing

0.46

-

0.65

0.10

0.57

0.62

0.38

164

E/M 2004 Report (WPE)

0.24

-

0.29

0.15

0.05

0.48

-

165

166

167

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,192 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (a subset) by 51.7-47.0% (13660 respondents). The pollsters offered the following hypothesis to explain the discrepancy between the exit poll and recorded vote: Kerry voters were more anxious to be polled; 56 Kerry voters agreed to be interviewed for every 50 Bush voters. Well, of course - because there WERE approximately 56 Kerry voters for every 50 Bush voters. The pollster canard was dubbed the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis. The pollsters applied the hypothesis (without any evidence) by adjusting the National Exit Poll (NEP) in order to have it match the recorded vote.

168

169

The adjusted NEP indicated that 43% (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush voters and 37% (45.3 million) were returning Gore voters. But Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and 1.0 million did not return to vote. Therefore, there could have been no more than 47 miliion returning Bush voters (38.4%). In other words, there had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS, which meant that an impossible 110% of living Bush 2000 voters had to turn out in 2004.

The National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote based on an impossible 110% turnout of Bush 2000 voters. Therefore, the recorded vote must also have been impossible.

192

193

Gore won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.5% and the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%. Therefore it is likely that he won by 3-6 million; a 41.4/ 37.7% Gore/Bush returning voter mix is plausible and so Kerry won the True Vote by 53.6-45.1% - a 10.7 million landslide.

Dem/Rep Party-ID was changed from 38.5-35.1% to 37-37% to match the recorded vote.

234

There were near-perfect correlations between Bush's unadjusted state exit poll shares, approval ratings and Party-ID.

235

236

The 2006 midterms further illustrate how unadjusted exit polls are forced to match a bogus recorded vote. Democratic Party ID was reduced from 39.8% to 38%; GOP increased from 33.4% to 36%. Similar adjustments were made in 2004 and 2008.