AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Saturday, February 12, 2005

Tropical Depression 09F has formed in the same area in which Cyclone Meena formed earlier in the month, approximately 180 NM eastnortheast of Pago Pago, American Samoa. Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Fiji Meteorological Service are currently tracking the system. No special alerts have yet been issued as the depression is small and well away from any major islands. However, most models indicate a general strengthening trend in the next few days and a slow movement southward.

People in Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Cook Islands and Niue should monitor the progress of the this system over the next 24-48 hours. Authorities in the Cook Islands should pay close attention as several main islands have already sustained damage from Cyclone Meena and are thus currently more vulnerable even to a small system.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE [997hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 167.3W AT 120000 UTC MOVING EASTWARDS AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES10 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE LLCC IS SLIPPING UNDER THE CDO. SYSTEM ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BANDING TO THE EAST, WRAPPING 0.6 ON LOG10 SPIRAL. DVORAK ASSESSMENT DT =3.0, MET=PT=2.5 GIVING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS. 09F REMAINS IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS ENHANCED BY CROSS-EQUATORIAL WIND FLOW TO THE NORTH AND BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WESTERLY STEERING EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS 09F INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS.

Situation:A ridge of high pressure pushes from the south directing east to southeast winds over the Southern Cooks .A tropical depression 09F [1000 hPa] remains slow moving to the far west of Suwarrow in the Northern Cooks. Associated cloud and rain affect the group.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Southern Cooks:Moderate east to southeast winds.Fine apart from a few brief showers.Moderate seas. Moderate to heavy southerly swells. Further outlook: Brief showers.

For Rarotonga:Fine apart from a few brief showers. Further outlook: Brief showers.

For the Northern Cooks:East to northeast winds, fresh and gusty in squalls. Scattered rain with isolated squally thunderstorms.Moderate seas, rough in squalls. Moderate swells. Further outlook:Scattered showers south and west of Penrhyn.

APCEDI

APCEDI is a service of AFAP
- the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and the Pacific and FSPI
- the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific International.

Disclaimer: This service provides indicative alert information
and should only be construed in conjunction with other sources of information
such as local and regional weather services. Reports are as accurate as possible,
but as the information is indicative, external confirmation should be sought.