Enrollment Predictions Proving True

August 27, 1989|By Shanna Flowers of The Sentinel Staff

KISSIMMEE — Last year, Earl Reeder and a host of other Osceola County educators huddled in a room to predict this year's enrollment.

There was no crystal ball. Just reams of charts, graphs, growth patterns and a little bit of guesswork. In the end, the officials projected that 17,359 students will enroll in Osceola schools in 1989-90.

As of Friday, the end of the first week of school, officials were pretty much on target with their projection: The total enrollment was 16,906.

They expect to hit the projected mark this week.

''There is obviously some guesswork, but it is educated guesswork based on patterns and trends,'' said Reeder, the district's coordinator of planning and evaluation.

''It does take some gut feelings. You're never going to be perfect, but you can come pretty close overall,'' he said.

Making sure enrollment projections are in the ballpark is important to Osceola school administrators. The number determines how much space and equipment are needed to accommodate students at schools.

The enrollment figure also determines how much money the district will receive from state and local revenues for each student. In 1989-90, the district will receive about $2,950 per pupil, according to a state Department of Education spokesman.

Administrators consider many things when they sit down to project enrollment. Assistant Superintendent John Gambrell keeps up with the new subdivisions under construction in the county.

He estimates how many houses will be built and the number of schoolchildren who will live in those houses, Reeder said.

Others have the job of tracking current students, who they are, where they live and where they will attend class the following year, Reeder said.

Principals also supply administrators with school enrollments. Taken altogether, the numbers give administrators a good idea of how many students will show up on opening day.

Director of Personnel Ed Smallwood said the enrollment projection is important to his office because the number helps him and his boss, Bill Vogel, decide how many teachers they need to hire.

''We staff based on the student count,'' Smallwood said. This year, with the opening of two new schools and the student growth over last year, the district hired 121 teachers.

If a school has more students than it can handle, portables can be set up at the schools or teachers can be transferred to the crowded buildings.

As a last resort, Reeder stressed, students may have to be moved to less-crowded schools.

By late Friday, Mill Creek was the only school in the district that had more students than it was built to handle, Reeder said.

The elementary school, which has a capacity of 792, had an enrollment of 860, Reeder said. Portables probably will be moved on site to relieve crowding in the building, he said.

Districtwide, enrollment reached 97.4 percent of the projected 17,359, Reeder said Friday. With more students enrolling during the next few days, the district expects to hit its projection later this week.

''We're pretty much on line,'' Reeder said. ''We may go a little bit over it. If the projection could be perfect, that would be wonderful.''