Henderson vs. Melendez

Who does not love a fight card with a distinct theme? For its
seventh appearance on Fox, the
Ultimate Fighting Championship has put together an event
featuring eight bouts pitting Octagon veterans against Strikeforce
imports, including all four conflicts set to appear on the main
draw.

Gilbert
Melendez’s promotional debut is of significant interest, as the
former Strikeforce
155-pound king has long yearned to prove himself against the best
the UFC has to offer. He will get that chance against reigning
lightweight champion Benson
Henderson in the
UFC on Fox 7 headliner. Additionally, Strikeforce heavyweight
grand prix winner Daniel
Cormier locks horns with former UFC heavyweight titlist
Frank Mir
in the co-main event.

Here is a closer look at the UFC on Fox 7 card, with analysis and
picks:

UFC Lightweight Championship

The Matchup: If two closely contested bouts with
Frankie
Edgar left some question regarding Henderson’s long-term
viability as 155-pound king, “Smooth” emphatically erased those
doubts with a dominant performance against Nate Diaz at UFC
on Fox 5 in December. The champion slowed Diaz with leg kicks,
overpowered him in the clinch and even rocked the Stockton, Calif.,
native with power punches on a couple of occasions. Henderson has
compiled an impressive resume in an ultra-competitive division,
besting Mark
Bocek, Jim Miller,
Clay
Guida, Edgar (twice) and Diaz since arriving from World
Extreme Cagefighting.

Melendez has long been recognized as one of the top lightweights
and pound-for-pound fighters in the world, and now the former
Strikeforce champion finally gets the opportunity he has desired
for so long: to compete against the UFC’s best. “El Nino” put
together a remarkable run in Strikeforce, winning his last seven
fights; he has not lost since dropping a unanimous decision to
Josh
Thomson in 2008, and Melendez has since bested Thomson twice.
Melendez survived a closer-than-expected third bout with “The Punk”
in his most recent outing -- an effort that the Californian said
might have resulted from a lack of motivation. That should not be a
problem this time around.

These two lightweights are built for five-round fights. Each of
Henderson’s three title bouts have gone the distance, while four of
Melendez’s last five appearances have required the entire 25
minutes. Much of Melendez’s success is predicated upon his ability
to outpace his opponents, both on the feet and in scrambles and
transitions on the mat, but he will find it difficult to wear down
the well-conditioned Henderson in the championship frames.

Melendez’s improvement in the striking department over the years
will be his best asset. He generally out-lands his foes at a
greater rate than Henderson, and he has proven himself capable of
landing multi-punch combinations in the pocket in recent bouts.
However, Henderson was able to keep Diaz -- a volume-based striker
-- off-balance thanks to a steady diet of leg kicks and takedowns.
As a result, Diaz never got into a rhythm and was ultimately
out-landed by a lopsided margin.

While Melendez has a solid jab, he is not as proficient a striker
as Diaz. However, he is a much better wrestler, and his ability to
follow punching combinations with takedown attempts could sway the
fight in his favor. Henderson’s athleticism and upper-body strength
make him difficult to hold down, and Melendez’s willingness to
initiate scrambles to improve position could result in him giving
up his back or being trapped in the champion’s dangerous
guillotine. Being nearly impossible to submit gives Henderson a
freedom to be aggressive with ground-and-pound and submission
attempts that few fighters are allowed.

Henderson can negate Melendez’s attempts to set the pace with
aggressive striking by outmuscling him in the clinch and wearing
him down with dirty boxing and knees. Henderson’s ability to
consistently land kicks to the legs and body will also slow down
the challenger as the contest advances.

The Pick: This appears to be an evenly matched
fight, but Melendez is not going to offer Henderson anything he has
not seen already. Unless “El Nino” can consistently utilize
footwork and movement to out-strike Henderson over five rounds, the
champion’s strength and athleticism will allow him to gain the
upper hand in wrestling, scrambles and tie-ups. Henderson retains
his title by decision.