Senior Correspondent for Fairfax Media

Who will be next ... General Ashfaq Kayani, right, with then president Pervez Musharraf, took over command of the army in November, 2007. Photo: Reuters

Rawalpindi: Fourteen years ago, when Nawaz Sharif was last prime minister of Pakistan, he thought he had his man in uniform. He was wrong.

In 1998, over several more senior officers, Sharif chose to appoint Pervez Musharraf as his chief of army staff. It was to prove neither a happy, nor a long, union.

Sharif must choose a man he can work with ... but not so pliant he will not have the respect of his forces.

Within a year, with both men's reputations damaged by Pakistan's provocation of fighting with India in Kashmir, Sharif sought to sack his general.

Nawaz Sharif arrives to cast his vote in the general election in Lahore in May 2013. Photo: Reuters/Mohsin Raza

But the general had the army, and on October 12, 1999, even as the prime minister ordered a plane carrying Musharraf to be prevented landing on Pakistani soil, his troops seized control of the airport and, by evening, the government. Musharraf was in charge.

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The episode, while dramatic, was sadly unexceptional in Pakistan which, in its short independent history, has known three coups and 33 years under military rule.

In 2013, Sharif is back in residence at the Prime Minister's Secretariat, inheriting a well-regarded, apolitical, Chief of Army Staff, General Ashfaq Kayani.

But after six years in the post, Kayani will stand down next month, and Sharif must choose his replacement carefully.

Pakistan is different now. The old aphorism that the head of the army was "the most powerful man in Pakistan" is heard less often.

While Kayani wields undoubted influence, he has been praised for keeping the army "in barracks" and recognising the primacy of Pakistan's elected civilian government.

This year, for the first time since independence, a civilian government in Pakistan completed its full term, went to an election, and a new administration was voted in: a matter of routine for most democracies but a significant victory in a country where governments are generally ended by tanks in the streets, and politicians in jail or on gallows.

A coup now seems, if not an impossibility, certainly highly unlikely in Pakistan.

But a new army chief is a balancing act for Sharif. He must choose a man he feels he can work with, and control, but not one who is so pliant he will not have the respect, or command, of his forces.

The General-Secretary of the Pakistan Ex-Servicemen's Association, Brigadier Syed Masud ul-Hassan told Fairfax Media in the garrison city of Rawalpindi that by keeping the army out of politics, Kayani had established a template for whoever followed him into the post.

"This is the way it will be – and the way it should be. The first objective must be the rule of law and respect for the constitution. Whatever happens, the army should not come into politics."

The most senior lieutenant-general when Kayani retires will be Haroon Aslam, who won acclaim for leading the highly successful operation to clear the Swat Valley of the Taliban in 2009.

Lieutenant-General Rashad Mahmud is a former director of counter-terrorism for Pakistan's spy agency, the Inter-Service Intelligence, a qualification of supreme significance as Pakistan tries to quell the insurgent violence on its north-west frontier.

Other senior officers reportedly under consideration are Lieutenant-General Raheel Sharif (no relation to the Prime Minister) and Lieutenant-General Tariq Khan.

"The army is a disciplined force," Mahsud said. "Any of the lieutenant-generals who might be promoted will have experience and will be capable".

But whichever three-star general inherits the extra pip now on Kayani's shoulders will face a host of challenges.

The most immediate is the seemingly intractable battle against militant extremists who wash back and forth across the mountainous border with Afghanistan as the seasons and fighting dictate. A third of Pakistan's army has been posted there for a decade.

In a position that might seem anathema to a military man, the new head of the army will have to be willing to sit down to talk with the Taliban.

Sharif is in favour of talks (though a recent bomb attack on a church has cooled his enthusiasm), and Kayani has been similarly disposed.

The Taliban are not negotiators, and the new army chief will have a difficult time winning any concessions towards peace. The Taliban are refusing to disarm, demand their prisoners be released and say they will never recognise the constitution of the country.

Despite this, talk the new chief must.

The relationship with the US is fragile. The assassination of Osama bin Laden – only about two kilometres from Pakistan's West Point – was an immense embarrassment for Pakistan's military establishment, and comments like those of the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mike Mullen that the Haqqani terrorist network is "a strategic arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency" are a demonstration of just how little trust remains between the two countries.

But new faces on both sides of the relationship bring hope. Before he became US Secretary of State, John Kerry was his country's point man on Pakistan and is well respected in Pakistan's political and military institutions.

And, of course, for Pakistan's new military chief, there remains the country's fractious relationship with fellow nuclear-armed neighbour India, the usual tensions exacerbated this year by regular outbreaks of violence on their contested border in Kashmir.

India does not believe Pakistan's efforts on terrorism are genuine.

Masud said that if the terrorist attacks could be diminished, other issues would become easier to manage.

"But fighting the terrorists is not an easy job. We are not fighting an enemy sitting in front of us. The enemy is hard to identify. They are in the mountains and in the cities, among the people."

He said the military leadership should be prepared to negotiate with the Taliban rebels it's been fighting so long.

"Everybody wants peace. If that can be achieved without further fighting, then everybody is happy. Peace will be good for all in Pakistan."