In
the 16th century, Nostradamus
predicted the wars of the 20th century. About 300 years later, Jules
Vernes, in his famous novel
From the Earth to the Moon,
described his vision of the first voyages into outer space. With different
degrees of precision, they both described events that would come to pass
centuries later, but neither predicted how “space wars” would work.
Nowadays, it’s quite easy to find depictions of what this type of war
might look like. Films like Star Wars and popular television series
like “Star Trek” have provided ideas that are distinct from one another,
but still similar. But are they accurate in showing how these things will
be carried out in real life? We don’t know how much longer humankind will
survive, but it’s clear that as long as humans are around, we will try to
explore outer space with methods that are increasingly rapid and simple.
This desire brings about the following questions and issues: Will we
become pacifistic and ecologically-minded? Which war will win out: the war
in space or the war for space?

Becoming pacifistic
would probably help us to avoid a space war, but it’s not likely
that humankind will go in that direction, since it’s in our nature
to destroy. Also, we must consider not only war between humans, but
also that of humans against our environment. If the attacks on our
own environment continue, the human species may not survive long
enough to conquer space so as to be able to wage a war there. In a
short interview with Cybersciences
as part of the 12th International Weather Festival,
astrophysicist Hubert Reevesdeclared that “Anyway, there are
only two possible scenarios: either humans manage to control our
influence, or we destroy ourselves.” The day may never come when we
have sufficiently evolved and have made adequate technological
advances.

Photo : NASA

In
a series like “Star Trek,” human beings in the 24th century become
pacifistsonce they establish contact
with an intelligent extra-terrestrial species. They become conscious
of the fragility of our species and stop destroying one another.
This idealistic scenario encourages us to think about whether or not
we might one day come into contact with such a species, and what
effect it could have on humankind. This perspective allows for the
possibility of a cosmic war, assuming that we are technologically
advanced to have instruments of war that we can use in space. But
the chances of a human being actually making contact with another
intelligent species are practically nil if we are to believe Astronomie et Astrophysique,
a book written by two Quebec scientists, Benoît Villeneuve and Marc
Séguin. According to some calculations,
the nearest planet that’s comparable to ours and that supports life
would be 30 million billion light-years away. If this were
true, we don’t run much risk of having contact with another
intelligent species, since they would all be out of reach.

Photo : NASA

What
elements, in this case, would be the most likely to cause a war in
space? If
the human species survives long enough to see a reasonably advanced
era of space exploration, things will probably play out mostly on a
political level. In the 1960s, the Cold War was waged in outer space
between the two major powers of the times, the USSR and the United
States. Each wanted to surpass the other in terms of space
“conquest.” Nowadays, the United States is the leader in terms of
space exploration.
Mir Space Station, which was
taken out of orbit on March 23, 2002, was in some ways the last
symbol of Soviet power in space. But is the competition really over?
The International Space Station(ISS), currently
under construction, features the participation of more than 16
countries, and is already running into some problems.

The
United States, the main investors in the project, recently had to
halt the construction of a vehicle and two station modules due to
the lack of a
NASA budget. Without these
three elements, the time share that each country can spend inside
the station once it’s completed will be greatly reduced. Unless a
solution is found for the problem, this could become a source of
friction between the various participants in the project.

The
beginning of an era of international space cooperation is not
without its difficulties, and it’s easy to imagine
future problems between the two modern enemies: the United States
and the rest of the world. In the very long term, these problems
could become the elements that eventually start cosmic wars. On the
other hand, if the United States continues to enjoy its status of
supremacy in space exploration, there may be less risk of such
off-Earth conflicts. However, future human colonies on planets such
as Mars could become exclusively American, and thus reflect the
future of our species. It’s enough to cause
nightmares for some …