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Politics From A to Z: Massachusetts

Yana Paskova for The New York TimesMartha M. Coakley, the Democratic candidate for the Senate seat formerly held by Edward M. Kennedy, spoke with the news media after voting at Brooks Elementary School Tuesday in Medford, Mass.

BOSTON – It’s decision day in Massachusetts, where a special election is taking place to fill the seat of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy. Neither Democrats nor Republicans would have predicted the contest between Martha M. Coakley and Scott P. Brown would have turned into such a remarkable race.

We’re here in Boston, where occasional snowfall may greet voters on Tuesday at the polls. The election is being carefully watched across the state and, perhaps, just as closely in Washington, where the outcome could alter a Democratic supermajority in the Senate.

The campaign, quite simply, is too close to call. So as we waited for the day to unfold, we sat down for a conversation: Politics from A to Z, the first of many back-and-forth exchanges we’ll have as we travel across the country this year.

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A.N.: Jeff, here’s one of the big frustrations of the day: There are no exit polls. Now I know that most people think we like exit polls, just to get the cool, insider read on what’s happening and to impress our friends – O.K., that is definitely ONE reason why we like them – but that’s not the real value. Exit polls for this race would have provided us with all kinds of data about why what happens on Tuesday actually happened, as well as offering information to help analyze the coming midterm elections.

For example, did independent voters swing to Scott Brown, the Republican, as pre-election polls suggested? Did Obama voters stay at home? Have Republicans been galvanized by the health care bill? All that would be bad news for President Obama and some very worried Democrats contemplating the outcome of the fall midterm elections.

J.Z.: I couldn’t agree more. There are no exit polls, of course, because no one anticipated this special election would turn into a real race – from the television networks that pay for the exit polls to Democratic leaders in Washington who will suffer if Martha Coakley loses. So without them, we will be left to rely on anecdotal information.

Are there big lines at polling places? Are black voters turning out to vote in traditionally Democratic precincts? Are women voters walking away with Coakley stickers on their lapels? This is the most critical segment of the electorate for her. What happens if she doesn’t win them over?

A.N.: I don’t see how she can without independent women voters. But the other thing to watch is whether Organizing for America – the outgrowth of the Obama presidential campaign’s get-out-the-vote effort – can, combined with the Massachusetts Democratic organization, turn out base Democratic voters. That’s one inherent advantage that she has over Mr. Brown. The word on the street here is if Ms. Coakley can keep it close – and polls this morning are all over the place, though none have her in the lead – a good get-out-the-vote operation could bring her across the finish line.

What I can’t get over is: Why on earth are you and I in Massachusetts for a special election where a Democrat is struggling to hold onto the seat Edward M. Kennedy had for 46 years!!?!?!?

J.Z.: No kidding. Usually when we’re in Boston for a political story, we’re just sneaking across the border from New Hampshire for a good dinner. But that’s another matter. I’ll tell you one thing: If Ms. Coakley loses tonight, Democratic unity – and the no-drama ethos employed by Mr. Obama – will face one of its biggest tests yet. And the administration’s health care agenda is threatened.

I predict the finger-pointing will begin even before the concession speech is delivered. The White House? The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee? The Democratic National Committee?

A.N. The answer to your questions: Yes. And by the way, the finger-pointing has already begun – win or lose, Democrats aren’t about to wait to see the outcome before parceling blame (and let’s be clear here: She could most certainly win.) In all seriousness, Democrats have reason to be upset, even if she prevails in a close race.

President Obama should never have had to trek here on a Sunday while he was managing the crises in Haiti and the closing negotiations on the health care bill. Agree with the health care bill or not, could you blame the president for being really upset that this signature initiative of his administration could get tripped up because of some basic political miscalculations by people who should know how to play this game?

None of this, by the way, is to take away from the political skill of Mr. Brown. If he does win, what meaning does the victory hold a month from now, much less 11 months from now, in an era when news cycles seem to be measured in minutes, not days?

J.Z.: This is the opening volley of a sure-to-be-fascinating midterm election season. The results from Tuesday night will be analyzed – yes, overanalyzed – and it would be premature to suggest that a Republican victory will automatically be a sign of good fortunes for the party in the rest of the year. A lot can – and will – happen between now and the rest of the primary and general election battles for House, Senate and governor’s races.

But you can be sure that if Mr. Brown wins, it will be a punch in the stomach for Democrats, who are already freaked out by what they fear could be a dismal political year. But before we get ahead of ourselves, it will be interesting to see if Mr. Brown can capitalize on the sentiment of an angry electorate and turn the enthusiasm created by his guy-next-door, I-drive-a-pickup-truck campaign, into real votes.

We’ll find out after 8 p.m. when the polls close. By the way, do you know what the Massachusetts recount rules are? Just asking.

Adam Nagourney, the chief political correspondent for The New York Times, and Jeff Zeleny, a White House correspondent, are on assignment in Boston.

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