Islamic Blog dealing with religious and worldly issues faced by the Muslims.

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Tuesday, 13 May 2014

Futility of 'Aman ki Asha'

‘Aman ki Asha’ is a peace initiative launched by two
major media houses of South Asia- Jang Group of Pakistan and Times of India of
India. The stated objectives of this peace venture are to promote friendly,
cultural, open trade and commercial relationships between Pakistan and India so
that defense budgets of both countries may be brought down and consequently
greater economic resources may be made available for socio-economic development
of both countries. When analyzed in the perspective of regional geo-strategic and
economic conditions, the futility of these stated objectives of this peace
initiative is exposed.

The fallacy of idea behind ‘Aman ki Asha’ is based on
the mis-conception that India’s defense budget would be reduced to its smaller
portion, if Pakistan’s defense budget is reduced to its smaller portion. Every state
allocates its defense budget according to its geo-strategic and economic
conditions. India’s geo-strategic and economic imperatives are linked with horizons
much beyond Pakistan. India cannot base its defense spending on that of
Pakistan’s.

Since ‘Aman ki Asha’ has been
launched in 2010, Indian has increased its defense budget from Rs. 1417 b in 2009-10
to Rs. 2.03 trillion in 2013-14- - i.e. an increase of more than 600 b - as against
Pakistan’s defense budget of Rs. 378 b in 2009-10 and Rs. 627 b in 2013-14. –
an increase of Rs. 249 b. By adding the exchange rate difference, we may see
India has increased its defense budget during this period (i.e. 2009-2014) about
four times more than that of Pakistan’s. The irrelevance of ‘Aman ki Asha’ is
obvious.

India is not only economic
competitor of China- major chunk of both counties’ exports are labor intensive
goods- but also competing China politically at the regional level. If China and
Pakistan are trying to forge economic and political alliance and bring CAS as
well into its fold, India has its own plans
to reach out to CAS through Iran. Most importantly India has border disputes
with China, and has also gone for war in 1962 in this connection; these factors
make India a military competitor to China. In the perspective of this military
competition, USA (and UK) is promoting India’s role as a counterpoise to China
at the regional level and India is reaping benefits of this role by having access to the west’s technology, investments,
and markets, all playing vital role in India’s economic development. Presently,
India is investing a lot militarily in Afghanistan and the reason is not only
that India wants to reign its enemy (Pakistan) but also that India (and USA) wants
to ensure that China, Pakistan, Iran and CAS may not emerge as an economic and
political block; India’s presence in Afghanistan would be a hurdle in the
formation of such a block. Even if Pakistan and India become friendly states,
India would not like Pakistan to forge an alliance with China, Iran and CAS
because such an alliance would bring extra pressure on India to resolve Kashmir
and water disputes with Pakistan judiciously and may also deprive India of CAS’s
emerging economies.

From the foregoing, it is obvious
that India cannot reduce its defense budget drastically even if Pakistan does
so and obviously Pakistan would not do so. If all objectives of ‘Aman ki Asha’
are gone through in details, it becomes clear this peace initiative is designed
to bring Pakistan and India together so that, on the one hand, Pakistan may be
kept away from the likely emerging regional economic and political block already
mentioned, and, on the other hand, Pakistan’s vigor to stand in India’s way may
be diminished so that India’s position as counterpoise to China and the west’s
market may be secured. This peace initiative actually aims at rapprochement
between India and Pakistan through papering over their mutual disputes.

If Pakistan accepts subordinate
position to India, as is envisaged through ‘Aman ki Asha’, and opts to
establish cordial relations with India without getting mutual disputes resolved, Pakistan would be forced afterwards to resolve mutual disputes more on Indian terms, due to the kind of dependance Pakistan may have over India as a result of such mutual cordial relations. The
prevailing conflict scenario between India and Pakistan may serve Pakistan’s
purpose in the better way, because regional geo-strategic scenario likely to
emerge out of likely regional economic and political block may force India to
settle Pak-India disputes more on Pakistan’s terms. Even if India may not be
forced in that way, in any case cordial relations between India and Pakistan without resolving mutual disputes first would serve more of Indian interests than
Pakistan’s. Kashmir and water disputes with India are too important and too vital
for Pakistan to acquiesce in anything to India unduly.

After opening of Pak-China Economic Corridor,
USA may not be interested in resolving Kashmir dispute; once this dispute is
resolved, India may be won over to likely regional economic and political block
emerging out of this economic corridor; in that case India’s role of military counterpoise
to China and the west’s market would cease to exist- an eventuality which would
not be favored by the USA. In other words, it goes in better interests of
Pakistan to adopt a policy which may foil USA’s interests in India. Two main
USA’s interests in India are to secure India’s position as a counterpoise to
China, and to secure India’s market. By establishing cordial relations with
India without resolving mutual disputes would secure USA’s both main interests;
adopting a hostile policy towards India till resolution of mutual disputes may
foil USA’s interests in India. Once USA’s interests in India are foiled and regional
economic and political block is operational, India may be won over to Pak-China
side by making India resolve mutual disputes.

We may conclude that ‘Aman ki
Asha’ is an irrelevant and futile exercise as for as its stated objectives are
concerned. However, it does serve India’s and USA’s interest; that is why we
see these both countries back this initiative. Only naive people may think what is in the best interest of India and USA is also
in the better interest of Pakistan; this view (right or wrong) might be presented in the
regional scenario before 2010 but not in the present scenario. The
present scenario in the perspective of USA's withdrawal from Afghanistan dictates what is in the best interest of Pakistan is
also in the best interest of India. India should resolve mutual disputes
with Pakistan and play role of a responsible regional player instead of
becoming watchdog of USA' interests.