Monday, 7 August 2017

Half of America's wheat crop destroyed in "flash drought"

Flash
Drought In US High Plains May Have Already Destroyed Half Of This
Year’s Wheat Crop

The
“flash drought” that came out of nowhere this summer in the US
High Plains, afflicting Montana and the Dakotas the worst, has
already destroyed more than half of this year’s wheat crop, going
by some recent field surveys. Considering that the region is now one
of the top wheat-growing regions in the world, the damage is very
notable.

What’s
particularly “interesting” about the situation is how quickly the
drought developed. It arose over just the last ~3 months — hence
the phrase “flash drought” — and it quickly worsened. The US
Drought Monitor recently upgraded the drought to “exceptional” —
matching the intensity of the relatively recent drought in
California, but developing over a shorter period of time.

These
so-called flash droughts are expected to become considerably more
common over the coming decades as the climate continues warming and
weather patterns continue changing.

The
area now being affected (the High Plains), it should be remembered,
are expected to essentially turn to desert over the coming decades
and centuries — as the region has before, at various points in the
past. So, this is just a sign of things to come. The fact that
groundwater levels are rapidly falling as well in many places, due to
overuse for irrigation, is something that also needs to be taken into
account.

“The
damage and the destruction is just unimaginable,” noted Montana
resident Sarah Swanson in an interview with Grist.
“It’s unlike anything we’ve seen in decades.”

Here’s
more from the Grist coverage:
“The Associated Press says the dry conditions are ‘laying waste
to crops and searing pasture and hay land’ in America’s new wheat
belt, with some longtime farmers and ranchers calling it the worst of
their lifetimes. Unfortunately, this kind of came-out-of-nowhere
drought could become a lot less rare in the future.

“Rainfall
across the affected region has been less than half of normal since
late April, when this year’s growing season began. In parts of
Montana’s Missouri River basin, which is the drought’s epicenter,
rainfall has been less than a quarter of normal — which equals the
driest growing season in recorded history for some communities.”

A
meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s office in Glasgow,
Montana, by the name of Tanja Fransen commented on this: “It’s
devastating…We’re at the bottom of the barrel. For many areas,
it’s the worst we’ve seen in 100 years.”

Something
that’s interesting to note here is that 2011, only 6 years back,
was actually one of the wettest years on record in eastern Montana.
Those sorts of rapid swings between extreme precipitation and
flooding on the one hand, and extreme flash droughts on the other,
are only going to become more common from here on out. Eventually,
most of the agriculture in the region will have to cease. Though,
there are probably a couple of decades left before that happens.

Here’s
more from Grist:
“The drought already has far-reaching effects. In eastern Montana,
America’s current-largest wildfire continues to smolder; the
422-square-mile Lodgepole complex fire is one-third the size of Rhode
Island. It’s Montana’s largest fire since 1910. Across the state,
17 other large fires are also spreading. ‘We haven’t even hit our
normal peak fire season yet,’ Fransen says.

“Recently,
as the climate has warmed and crop suitability has shifted, the
Dakotas and Montana have surpassed Kansas as the most important
wheat-growing region in the country. The High Plains is now a
supplier of staple grain for the entire world…The economic impact
of the drought and related fires may exceed $1 billion across the
multi-state region by the time the rains return. Donations of hay for
beleaguered farmers and ranchers have come in from as far away as
West Virginia.”

Taking
a broad view here, the reality is that the US Great Plains — along
with the southwest and mountain states — will become less and less
habitable as the coming decades arrive. Mass migrations out of the
regions in question, and into parts of the country that are already
overcrowded in many ways, are pretty much a given at this point.
Plans for the future should be made with that reality in mind.

Governments
and people being what they are, though, this isn’t likely to
happen. Rather, it’s very likely that things stand to become very
messy and bloody as the century grinds on. Obviously, this is already
the case in many parts of the world, but it’s been a while since
Europe has had to deal with that sort of reality, and a long while
since the US has.