Focus on Economic Data: The U.S. Unemployment Rate June 1, 2007

The unemployment rate for the month of May was 4.5 percent. Total employment rose by 157,000 in May.

The original press release is available at: [EEL-link id='526' title='www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm' ] .

Definition Of The Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is unemployed. It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the sum of the number of people unemployed and the number of people employed. The number of people unemployed and the number of people employed is defined as the number of individuals in the labor force. See the current calculation in Table 1.

An individual is counted as unemployed if the individual is over the age of 16 and is actively looking for a job, but cannot find one. Students, other individuals who choose to not work, and retirees are not counted in the labor force, and therefore not counted in the unemployment rate.

Description

Table 1: Calculation of the Unemployment Rate

Total civilian population

231,480,000

(excluding those under 16, members of the military, and persons in institutions)

- Not in Labor force

78,718,000

(retired, students, individuals choosing not to work)

= Labor force

152,762,000

(total population minus those not in labor force)

- Employed

145,943,000

(individuals with jobs)

= Unemployed

6,819,000

(individuals without a job and actively searching)

Unemployment Rate

=

6,819,000
145,943,000 + 6,819,000

=

4.5%

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Data Trends

Unemployment rates have ranged between 4.4 and 4.6 since last September. The year 2006 ended with an unemployment rate of 4.5 percent. These rates are about equal to the average rate of 4.6 in 2006 and less than the 5.1 percent in 2005, and 5.5 percent in 2004.

The longer-run trend from the beginning of the 1990s to the 2001 recession was a decrease in unemployment rates and an increase in employment.

Figure 1 shows the rises in unemployment associated with the recession in 1990 to 1991 and the recession of 2001 with an almost decade long fall in unemployment in between. Unemployment rates continued to increase after the 2001 recession, as the economy slowly recovered.

Unemployment rates, since reaching a high of 6.3 percent in June of 2003, have slowly and relatively steadily decreased.

Relevance of Unemployment Announcements

The unemployment announcements receive headline treatment almost every month. Changes are significant indicators of national economic conditions and have relevance to every local community as unemployment has significant costs to the individuals who are unemployed and to the entire community and the U.S. economy.

Changes in levels of employment are also included in the announcements and often receive less attention. However, the employment data are equally, perhaps even more, important indicators of the direction of the U.S. economy.

Figure 3 shows unemployment rates over the last 50 years. All of the significant increases in unemployment occurred during recessions. Unemployment reached the high of 10.8 percent in November and December of 1982 at the end of a recession. You can also see that current unemployment is quite low when compared to most of that time period.

Distribution of Unemployment

Unemployment varies significantly among groups of individuals and parts of the country. Table two shows the unemployment rates for a number of groups of individuals, with unemployment rates ranging from 3.8 for adult females to 15.7 percent for teenagers.

Table 2: Unemployment Statistics
by Gender, Race and Age

Adult Men

4.0%

Adult Women

3.8%

Whites

3.9%

Blacks

8.5%

Hispanics

5.8%

Teenagers

15.7%

Explanations of differences in unemployment rates among groups of individuals and parts of the country are differences in economic conditions, education levels, skills and experience, and discrimination.

Employment

A second important part of each month's unemployment announcement is the report of the number of individuals employed. The number unemployed and unemployment rates receive much of the press attention and rightfully so. But employment and a loss or gain in jobs are also important indicators of progress in the economy. The failure of the economy to increase the number of jobs as rapidly as we experienced in the 1990s had been of particular interest and concern up until 2004.

If employment does not increase at the same rate as population growth, or more specifically, the growth of the labor force, the economy will experience higher unemployment or increasing numbers of individuals will leave the labor force.

Since the beginning of 2004, employment has been on an upward trend at rates that will provide sufficient jobs for new entrants and that trend has continued during May.

Total nonfarm payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) rose by 157,000 in May to almost 137 million jobs. This follows a revised rate of increase of 80,000 jobs in April. The 80,000 increase had caused some concern, but the average over the last several months is greater. In fact, this year, the labor force has averaged a monthly growth of 126,000 – just enough to provide new entrants jobs.

Figure 4 shows that growth in employment slowed in the last part of 2000 and stopped in March of 2001. Employment decreased in all but six of the months from the beginning of the recession in March of 2001 to September of 2003. Finally in September of 2003, employment began to grow and had continued to grow since.

Figure 5 shows the monthly change in employment. The average monthly increase in jobs this year has averaged 126,000. If the same percentage of adults is to have jobs, employment needs to grow by approximately 125,000 per month and we are continuing on that path.

The Costs of Unemployment

There are significant personal costs to unemployment and these are the easiest to understand. Unemployed workers often do not have the income to support themselves or their families. The stress of being unemployed is reflected not only through the financial challenges of paying regular ongoing bills, but also through increases in alcohol and drug abuse, marital problems, and criminal activity among those who are unemployed.

State and federal governments reduce the personal financial cost of being unemployed through unemployment compensation provided to many unemployed workers. Because most workers pay the taxes that fund the unemployment compensation, the cost of being unemployed is spread among taxpayers, instead of having the entire burden fall on the unemployed workers alone.

Increases in unemployment also mean that the economy is wasting an important scarce resource – labor. Real GDP is less than it otherwise could be and that additional output is lost forever. If more individuals had been employed, production of goods and services would have been higher. Average standards of living are lower as a result of increases in unemployment.

Types of Unemployment

There are three types of unemployment, each of which describes the particular circumstances of the individual and their employment situation.

Frictional unemployment is temporary unemployment arising from the normal job search process. Frictional unemployment helps the economy function more efficiently as it simply refers to those people who are seeking better or more convenient jobs and those who are graduating and just entering the job market. Some frictional unemployment will always exist in any economy.

Structural unemployment is the result of changes in the economy caused by technological progress and shifts in the demand for goods and services. Structural changes eliminate some jobs in certain sectors of the economy and create new jobs in faster growing areas. Persons who are structurally unemployed do not have marketable job skills and may face prolonged periods of unemployment, as they must often be retrained or relocate in order to find employment.

Cyclical unemployment is unemployment caused by a drop in economic activity. This type of unemployment can hit many different industries and is caused by a general downturn in the business cycle.

At the levels of unemployment that economists consider to be the lowest possible sustainable levels (discussed below), the only unemployment that exists is due to friction in labor markets and structural changes in the economy.

Interactive Interpretation of Data

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Full employment

Economists define the approximate unemployment rate with no cyclical unemployment as full employment. If unemployment falls to level below the full employment rate, there will be upward pressure on wages and prices. If unemployment rises to a very high rate, there will downward pressure on wages and prices or wages and prices will remain steady. In the middle is a level, or more accurately, a range, where there is not pressure on wages and prices to rise or fall.

Economists do not know for certain what that rate or range is and even if they did, it does change over time. A consensus estimate is that the full employment rate of unemployment is currently between 4.0 and 4.7 or 4.8 percent of the labor force being unemployed.