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Here are FOX’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2018-19 season, and things aren’t looking good for one of its veteran dramas.

Show

Status

18-49 rating

Renew/Cancel Index

REL (O)

🐻

0.61

0.01

The Gifted (O)

🐻 🐻

0.69

0.09

Lethal Weapon

🐻 🐻

0.70

0.10

The Resident (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.01

0.41

Family Guy (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.09

0.49

Bob’s Burgers (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.16

0.56

Star (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.17

0.57

9-1-1 (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.40

0.80

The Simpsons (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.41

0.81

The Cool Kids (F) (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.04

0.89

Empire (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.53

0.93

Last Man Standing (F) (O)

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

1.34

1.32

After feeling unsure about it earlier in the season, the Bear has become fairly confident that “Lethal Weapon” will likely be canceled this year.

The third-year drama has been averaging a 0.70 so far this fall, three-tenths below its second season average, and is currently tied with “The Gifted” as FOX’s lowest-rated show. So with those numbers, and Damon Wayans’ comments about quitting after this season, The Bear has a hard time believing “Lethal Weapon” will be coming back for a fourth season.

Meanwhile, the Bear still thinks “Last Man Standing” is a sure bet to be renewed, even despite its slight ratings decline. Freshman comedy, “The Cool Kids,” also remains a likely renewal.

Key:

DSW

Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing

🐻

sure bet to be canceled by May 2019

🐻 🐻

likely to be canceled by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻

tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

likely to be renewed by May 2019

🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻

sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.