The resitance was touched for the third time. In the trend channel we have now reached the top. The question arises, where is the journey going? Even further up?

After 85 days up with a plus of 75% a correction is overdue. Or? So how strong will the correction be? I check in at 3.500/3.600 and checked out on Thursday.

Many believe that the Bitcoin still falls below 4000. There are even approaches that see the Bitcoin below 2000. It's all a question of probability.

So how likely is it that Bitcoin will currently lose more than 45 % or 65 % of its value again? Yes, of course, if the market would capitulate, everything is possible. The only thing is that the fundamental data speak against it. Even though Bitfinex has caught the headlines, the best case was the hope of some big players to influence the market. At the same time big brokers like eTrade and Ameritrade have accept now Bitcoin-Trading. And the acceptance of Bitcoin and Alts continues to increase signifactly.

So where does the market correct? (Note: For Bitfinex use higher prices, but Fibo remains the same.)

Scenario 2:
-16% (4900) to Fibo 0.618 and another bullrun to Fibo 1.274 (6.500)
My opinion:
Probability well possible. I have a position here.

Scenario 3:
-30% (4000 to 4300) to Fibo 0.236 or 0.382).
My opinion:
That is the wish of many. Probability possible. But I think that the market will not react, as everyone believes and hopes. But be watchfull, everything ist possible.

Scenario 4:
-46% (3100 to 3350) to Fibo 0 and capitulation with further fall.
My opinion:
Rather unlikely. The market is in the fundamentals data to strong at the moment.

Related Ideas

Bulls, pay no attention to all the negative talk about Bitcoin. Hungry bears are just trying to scare you into selling your bags cheap. They want you to lose. The market has become difficult for these bears to trade. They need to make a profit and don't know what to do. So they use the tactic of spreading FUD to get their cash cow flowing again. Don't be fooled! They only care about one thing: taking your money. Never forget that. Patience has its rewards.

I do expect declination from 6400 $ towards 4700$, not earlier than that.

You have it posted on chart as impulsive point E (5800$ which was reached in 4 days time).

Now comes potential consolidation and 6400$ (i.e. 6380 safe/conservative), then downward momentum which will rip out limbs of those staying long by liquidating them entirely and creating massive volume which should trigger another spike and make lower high from that point (i.e previous higher high (5800), but that comes later.

For now, lowest on btc we could expect is sidewalking several days towards 5400$ level as enabling altcoins to express themselves.

Love how you guys are showing the divergence on the RSI and even the Stochastic has divergence as well. I'm always curious if the bulls will take advantage of the selling power in the market with these setups to place their long trades. I just saw a post from @TradingShot that showed a great case for a bull setup so it's great to have both sides of the analysis covered. Thank you for the great update. We're currently long and holding until our stop loss is hit. Thanks for the update. You have our like and follow :)