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Rubio, Shaq, and Game 2 Open Thread

Knick fans who were hoping Rubio would refuse play in Minnesota, and therefore being shipped to the Big Apple may have just had their dreams crushed. According to the Associated Press:

The Spanish point guard has agreed to join the Timberwolves next season, ending a drawn-out, delicate, two-year negotiation with the team that had many league observers believing he did not want to play in Minnesota.

A person with knowledge of the agreement confirmed to The Associated Press on Wednesday night that Rubio will be here next season, given the woebegone Timberwolves a much-needed dose of good news. The person requested anonymity because neither Rubio nor the Timberwolves planned to make an official announcement while he continues to play for Regal Barcelona in the Spanish league playoffs.

At his peak, Shaquille O’Neal was most unstoppable force of the last 30 years. He was everything that Dwight Howard is now plus a mean streak, an extra 50 pounds of muscle, and a much more refined offensive game than many people remember. As the statistical revolution has taken shape over the past decade, it has christened Shaq as the only potential challenger (pre-LeBron) to Jordan’s peak numerical supremacy, which is fitting because his ’00-’02 Lakers teams were the only non-Jordan teams of the last two decades that felt unbeatable when you watched them. And, a developing Kobe Bryant aside, it’s not like the supporting casts on those teams were particularly overwhelming.

Well, a lot of the difference was simply Dallas’ clanging shots it usually makes. The Mavs were just 16-of-45 on 2s; in particular, Miami’s defense seemed to erase those clean forays down the lane for J.J. Barea (added bonus for Miamians: If Barea keeps struggling like this, there’s a chance Zuleyka Rivera becomes available).

But you can also run through a highlight reel of makeable shots that the Mavs simply missed, with Brendan Haywood’s rim-check dunk attempt topping the list. Dallas’ scorching four-man bench unit of Terry, Barea, Haywood and Peja Stojakovic shot 4-for-22 in Game 1, and again, most of their looks were quality attempts.

…

Nonetheless, all the big-picture takeaways from the opener have to leave Dallas feeling fairly comfortable. By and large, the Mavs were able to play their game on Tuesday; they just happened to play it badly, and the Heat got some unlikely shots to go in.

49 comments on “Rubio, Shaq, and Game 2 Open Thread”

Can anyone give us some analysis on Mr. Rubio? The article linked above said that his stock has dipped some. And I know people were very disappointed with his play in the World Championships last summer.

I don’t like the 2-3-2 one bit. The Mavs would now have to sweep the next 3 games just to have a CHANCE to close the series out at home. Gonna be tough for them to win this thing, but I’m holding out hope .. they definitely need a road W tonight.

Jafa:
I’m rooting for the Heat.I like the evil empire.I guess that’s why I am a Yankee fan as well.

Not me; I’m sticking with the Cubans ’til the bitter end (of course, as I typed that, I realized that “Cubans” could just as easily serve as a cutesy moniker for a team from Miami)

With that being said, I will allow that I’ve moved past the whole “LeBron-is-the-Spawn-of-Satan” mindset that had consumed me earlier in the year. In fact, I can even see how a Heat title could benefit the Knicks as it would validate the “3 Kings=Rings” paradigm.

Don’t think this fact will not go unnoticed by the likes of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Dwight Howard. A Miami championship sends a message to each of those guys that their only hope of winning a title under the New World Order lies in their joining forces with two other established “superstars.” And New York is one of the few locations in the NBA in which two “superstars” are already in place, awaiting that third piece. Now, I know the advanced stats nerds don’t quite see it that way… but I thinks it’s inarguable that their peers around the NBA DO consider Melo and Amar’e as “superstars”… and in a world in which star players are now acting as de facto GMs don’t discount the importance of that perception, however misguided some may believe it to be.

First off, welcome back Ted. It will be great to have your analysis for the draft.

Second, great news about the cba. It’s really in everyone’s best interest to have a season, especially with football on the rocks. The game is really strong right now and is in a position to get better.

Third, I’m rooting for the Heat, and then, CP3 to leave NOLA high and dry for NYC. It’s the only chance we have.

Fourth, it will be nice to finally have Rubio in the league. Rubio, Love, Williams/Kanter/whoever, Johnson and Randolph are a nice core moving forward. But I would rather have CP3 than Rubio.

I will miss Shaq. He’s the last of the big men, so to speak. Duncan is the big fundamental. Howard is the big athletic freak. Shaq were those things too, but 7’1, without shoes, with a 36″ vertical…Man, he was impressive to watch, until he got to the freethrow line.

The sad thing is a 25 minute a night healthy Shaq, at this age, would still be the most useful C on this team.

I’m still rooting for the Mavs. I think they could be much better. You know, watching the Heat game, it almost reminded me of the Knicks-Heat game, except the Knicks played some solid lock-down D too. Is the Heat really that scary for this Knicks team? If the game is close, Melo has proven he can close as well.

I tend to agree with Colin Cowherd about Rubio. He averages like 6 points and 3 assists in Euroball. He’s NOW 20 yrs old. What was D-Rose doing at 20? I just don’t see Rubio becoming that special someone in the NBA.

I know that official scorers in Europe are much stingier in crediting assists than their American counterparts, but still… no matter how you slice it, those numbers hardly scream “second coming” to me.

Not for nothing, but the players and the owners in the NBA have always seemed to be a little bit closer on terms than their NFL counterparts, so I think it is possible that this really does get done. That would be so awesome. A lockout would suck so much.

Brian Cronin: Not for nothing, but the players and the owners in the NBA have always seemed to be a little bit closer on terms than their NFL counterparts, so I think it is possible that this really does get done. That would be so awesome. A lockout would suck so much.

Yep, especially for a team like the Knicks who have so many flaws…The sooner it gets done, the sooner Walsh/whoever can get to work to retool the roster, the better.

Count de Pennies: their only hope of winning a title under the New World Order lies in their joining forces with two other established “superstars.”

Count de Pennies: I thinks it’s inarguable that their peers around the NBA DO consider Melo and Amar’e as “superstars”… and in a world in which star players are now acting as de facto GMs don’t discount the importance of that perception, however misguided some may believe it to be.

I think the first part is a false premise. You don’t need to build a team that mirrors Miami or is a slightly worse version of Miami to beat them. You have to build a better team. That could involve 3 superstars or it could not.

It is also pretty inarguable that Amare is an awful defender and Melo isn’t much better. That’s as much a consensus as that they’re offensive superstars. Perhaps they can be convinced Amare and Melo’s strengths are enough, but you’re not going to convince anyone that either one of those guys is LeBron James or Dwayne Wade.

adrenaline98: He’s NOW 20 yrs old. What was D-Rose doing at 20? I just don’t see Rubio becoming that special someone in the NBA.

20 years old is still really young. What was Stephon Marbury doing at 20? (He was an All-Star.) What was Steve Nash doing at 20? (He was at a mid-major playing other kids at mid-majors.) Who would you take on their career?
His game is not Derrick Rose’s game. There’s no use in comparing the two. If anyone expected Rubio to be Derrick Rose, I have a bridge I’d like to sell them.
You are taking his stats out of context and commenting on a player you don’t seem to have seen play much… what’s the point?

Didn’t see him this season, but I did live in Spain from about 2004-2008. So I’ll tell you a few things I know, but it’s not up-to-date necessarily.

First, he’s not a scorer. At least not at this point, and doesn’t really project to be too much of a scorer. His scoring efficiency has been up-and-down.

Handle and court-vision/passing are really his calling card: the reason he was so hyped. Also a strong rebounder for a PG, and a strong defender in Europe. I’d expect the rebounding to translate, the defense may or may not. He’s got long-ish arms, quick hands, good overall quickness… so he might be a good NBA defender. He was Spain’s DPOY a year or two ago as a teenage PG, but I wouldn’t exactly expect Rajon Rondo. I would sort of compare him to a European Jason Kidd, but without the same frame and athleticism as a young Kidd. Hate to make a racially fueled comparison, but I’d throw in some Nash for the build, athleticism, and game minus the shooting touch.

The other thing I’d look at is his circumstances in Europe.
A. He played for a top flight team. It’s a bit like being a rookie PG on the Heat. He sort of took a back seat.
B. The European game in general is different. Less iso. Less ball handling. Not as open. A bit like the NCAA game. The NBA should be more suited to Rubio’s game, in my opinion… or at least allow him to run an offense in a way that’s not really done in Europe.

He hasn’t taken off the way people thought he would at 16-18. He’s a very promising prospect nonetheless, though. If he doesn’t reach the Nash-like potential, he could still be a valuable NBA PG.

Ted Nelson:
I think the first part is a false premise. You don’t need to build a team that mirrors Miami or is a slightly worse version of Miami to beat them. You have to build a better team. That could involve 3 superstars or it could not.

Ted,

Can you elaborate on the iteration of better teams that can be built that the one Miami has? When I think of models that we have seen this season, these come to mind:
– 2 superstars and 1 star with role players (Heat)
– 1 superstar and 2 stars with role players (Lakers, Celtic, Spurs)
– 1 superstar with strong supporting cast (Bulls, Thunder, Mavs)

Those are the models used by the contenders this season. If there is a better model, please share with us so we can trumpet it until someone in the Knicks front office takes notice.

Ted Nelson:
I would sort of compare him to a European Jason Kidd, but without the same frame and athleticism as a young Kidd. Hate to make a racially fueled comparison, but I’d throw in some Nash for the build, athleticism, and game minus the shooting touch.

Trouble is, Jason Kidd isn’t Jason Kidd without the frame and athleticism – in his younger days he was one of the most physically imposing point guards in the league, and impossible to deal with on the break because he could barrel through contact and finish. Nash isn’t even remotely Nash without the shooting – one of the main reasons Nash is so great on the PNR is because he IS such a great shooter that defenders always need to play up on him, giving him angles for pocket passes etc.

Now I haven’t seen Rubio play much at all – some limited clips during the Olympics and World Championships etc., but certainly his stats don’t scream out anything to justify the hype. I’m a big believer that system, tempo, coaching etc. can make a big difference, so maybe he will be great. But it would make me nervous that while he’s young, he’s actually getting WORSE. He should be making big strides now that he is 5 full years into his professional career. My feeling is that they’ll play off him like Rondo or Chris Duhon and make him prove he can shoot in this league. I hope he turns out well, if only because it would be great to watch another Pete Maravich.

Re: the superstar model – it’s just the best TEAM, not the specific makeup that matters. It’s a testament to how great Wade and Lebron are overall and defensively that the Heat are this good even though their 2 best players totally replicate each other on the offensive end. If we’re going to go the route of trying to win with the #1 offense by a lot and an average defense, then someone like Marshon Brooks might be a good pick.

Largely agree. You definitely need really good players to win the Finals. I just don’t think it takes 3 “superstars” necessarily to beat a team with 3 “superstars.” How you define “superstar” being the big thing here. I’m sort of considering it to be synonymous with “max player” in this context.

One model I’m really thinking about is the recent Lakers’ teams. Perhaps guys like Pau and Bynum are just as good as Bosh, but aren’t really seen as “superstars.” Kobe is a top player, but he’s not LeBron. They never went up against the Heat, but they did win back-to-back Finals… and all that with one of the worst PGs in all of the NBA. You upgrade over Fisher in a big way and they might easily beat the Heat.

Or a two-superstar model with strong supporting cast. Say the Magic get a CP3 to go with Howard and build a strong team around them.

Getting a Howard or CP3 would be HUGE for the Knicks. Surrounding AmareMelo with defenders/efficient scorers could maybe be about as effective, though. A Tyson Chandler type C, maybe, who can defend/rebound, but also run the floor and be a high-efficiency/low-volume scorer. Maybe a Bruce Bowen-type on the wing along with a more dynamic SG/combo-guard. A PG who can shoot and defend and get the ball where it needs to be. There’s your 7-man playoff rotation. Of course, Melo and Amare have to step up. Amare has to defend and rebound. Melo has to stop jacking-around with circus shots, especially in crunch situations. Same would be true if Howard or CP3 were on board, though.

I sort of doubt the Knicks win a championship anytime soon. I think Howard is their best chance, personally.
Another team, though, with better building blocks might beat the Heat without 3 “superstars,” though.

@18 – agree completely Ted — I highly doubt that Dwight Howard is coming, but if he does, then I think we have a pretty reasonable chance of contending even with the big 3 in Miami. To round out that team we would probably just need a passable PG and maybe 1 more 3 point shooter for offense, and probably just one perimeter defender (ie. a Bruce Bowen type that could hit 3’s and defend).

Assuming Howard’s not, then CP3 or Deron Williams would obviously be the next best guys.

Re: this draft, I don’t think we can add another player we have to hide on defense, so as cool as it would be to see him with the NYK, I think Jimmer is out. Show me Chris Singleton, Marshon Brooks, or Klay Thompson and I’ll be a very happy guy. I wouldn’t mind Faried either, although the DX videos on him seem to indicate that he would not be the post defender we would want.

He’s still a great passer without it, and Rubio doesn’t have to be Jason Kidd–one of the best PGs ever to play the game–to be a valuable player or good pick.

It’s a matter of degree, though. Rubio isn’t a physical freak, but he’s also not un-athletic or small. He’s got very good size for his position, and he’s very quick. He runs the break very well, so I wouldn’t really attack that part of his game.

He’s not Jason Kidd and he’s not Steve Nash… I was just making comparisons to certain skills they share. He’s a great passer with a great handle, like Kidd and Nash. His potential is to rebound and defend the position well… which Kidd is the first guy who comes to mind for, since he also couldn’t shoot but shined in those areas. Rubio’s shot is not awful, IMO, just inconsistent and not a strength.

Frank: My feeling is that they’ll play off him like Rondo or Chris Duhon and make him prove he can shoot in this league.

Of course they’ll play off him to make him prove he can shoot the ball, but Rondo and Duhon… they’re light-years apart. One in one of the best PGs in the NBA and one is a mediocre back-up. Like I said, he’s not a scorer. Not all guys who aren’t scorers have identical worth. There’s lots to the NBA other than scoring.

Again, I feel you’re taking his stats out of context. At DKV Joventut he played on an 8-seed that played at the fastest pace in Spain. With Barca, he’s on a more methodical team that’s the best in Spain. His shooting struggled this season, but his overall stats are solid and young guys often improve inconsistent shots. People keep throwing out 6 and 3 like that means something. It doesn’t. It’s context-less per…

NBA is also designed for penetration right now like Pamela Anderson… so playing up on him shouldn’t really kill him. I don’t think his outside shot is as big a problem as his finishing ability actually. He shot 40+% from 3 the past two seasons. This season might have just been a fluke. I don’t think his outside shot will kill him.

And in terms of what to expect from young guys in Europe vs. NCAA… let’s look at Brandon Jennings. Jennings has lots of warts, but he’s a promising young PG who was a top recruit expected to make a huge impact in the NCAA. In Europe he was totally forgettable. In NCAA right now Rubio might be a big star.

I’m not saying Rubio is a future HOFer or this season wasn’t a step back for him. (European Kidd reference was meant to say that at that level of competition he’s like a young Kidd, in NBA he shares characteristics and is like a European version of Kidd.) I just also wouldn’t go to the opposite extreme of questioning why he’s even a prospect and saying he’s got no chance to make it. That’s what two commenters above did. I think he’s a good prospect.

Ted Nelson: Largely agree. You definitely need really good players to win the Finals. I just don’t think it takes 3 “superstars” necessarily to beat a team with 3 “superstars.” How you define “superstar” being the big thing here. I’m sort of considering it to be synonymous with “max player” in this context.

It’s funny to recall when Boston put its Big Three together. At the time, they really were a “Big Three”. But it seemed like after Miami put theirs together, Boston’s didn’t really seem like the Big Three anymore (unless you were throwing Rondo in there instead of Allen). If anything, the original Big Three seemed more like a Big Two-and-a-Half compared with LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. Then for a big part of this season, Bosh kind of took a backseat, with many referring to them as The Big Two-and-a-Half.

The point being that I agree we’ve kind of gotten caught up in the semantics of “superstars” and “Big Threes”. Whether you think adding CP3 or Howard is essential for the Knicks to become contenders, or whether you prefer going the route of rounding out our core with solid, efficient roll players — either way it’s clear we need multiple pieces in order to vault ourselves to the next level. I don’t think there’s any one way it has to shake out. Because if we end up adding three or four “roll players” without CP3 or D12 and win a tittle, chances are one of those roll players will have ended up asserting himself as the “Third” piece anyway.

Ted Nelson–Pamela Anderson??? Wow, I thought I was old school. Really great to read your posts again dude. I enjoy them very much. Anyone read anything about Jimmer’s workout today? Me, an unapologetic homer.

He led the Big East in blocks, defensive win shares, field goal percentage, and rebounds. His TS% of .584 was good enough to be 8th in the entire conference. 2nd in the Big East in Win Shares and eFG% this year. The Big East is college’s best conference; they sent 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament (St. John’s, Syracuse, Pitt, UConn, Notre Dame, WVU, Nova, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, and Cincinnati).

He stands at 6’8 1/2″ without shoes and has a 7 foot 1 wingspan, has solid athleticism and strength, a good work ethic and motor (he dropped 30 pounds heading into his senior year), and has experience playing the 5. We need to buy a pick and take him.

This game shows his P&R experience, ability to catch and finish, and how dominant he was on the boards for Syracuse. He’s somewhat limited offensively, but if Melo passed him the ball in Game 2, he would have finished lol. I’m really hoping the Knicks select this guy with a bought pick (late first-early 2nd). His role at Syracuse is the EXACT role he’d have on this team (and he was a big part of Syracuse being good this year): man the middle, clean the glass, and finish when you get the ball within 5 feet of the basket.

He worked out for us on monday, and the article says “he has the skill-set to be a rotation player in most front courts.” I really think he’s somebody the Knicks should consider purchasing a pick and selecting.

tastycakes:
I don’t like the 2-3-2 one bit.The Mavs would now have to sweep the next 3 games just to have a CHANCE to close the series out at home.Gonna be tough for them to win this thing, but I’m holding out hope .. they definitely need a road W tonight.

Totally agree re the 2-3-2 format, and always have. If the teams are mismatched, it doesn’t matter, but when the teams are equally matched, which means the series is probably going 6-7 games, the home court advantage becomes HUGE, and the only way for the disadvantaged team to win at home is to win in 5, meaning they would either have to sweep 3 in a row at home or win the first 2 on the road. To this day, I feel that the 2-3-2 format may have decided the Knicks-Rockets 1994 finals, but I hated the format even before that.

Dallas decided to stop turning it over every other play and to commit to trapping James and Wade, and what do you know…. Hopefully they recognize now that Miami’s strength is their defense and transition game and that they are one of the few teams, due to their excellent passing, that can spread the floor and score against them. If they just protect the ball and keep wade and james from getting lots of dunks in the halfcourt, they will win.

I’m really just trying to comprehend what I just witnessed. That stretch right there might have changed the series. Miami is usually the team to throw it into 5th on the defensive end, but those last few possessions, Dallas’ D was more active than we’ve seen it in 8 quarters.

DS:
Did anyone feel a sense of calm on Dallas’s final possession when you heard JVG say “they put BOSH on Nowitzki???”

Thats like if D’Antoni puts Amar’e on Dirk and not Jeffries or Turiaf. Have no clue what Bosh was doing covering Dirk on that final play especially when Haslem had been covering him for the most part the first 2 games and Dirk was having a relatively tough time scoring one-on-one on him.

That was a great thing … best of all LeBron from three went back to being LeBrick late and close (career .330) after seeming to sink big 3 after big 3 in tight games agaisnt both Boston and Chicago. (FWIW even with those 2 misses he is @ .391 for the playoffs. He was 21-46 in Boston/Chi/game 1 which is crazy good)

I’m sure I will eat my words on sunday but I really feel good about Dallas in this series. The Heat have had some really good looks from 3, mostly from Chalmers and Bibby, but other than that, have been relying heavily on really dumb Dallas turnovers (dribbling off feet, really uncharacteristic bad passes by guys like Kidd) and difficult long 2’s and 3’s by Wade and James. Wade and James are NOT particularly good jumpshooters who have been on a serious jumpshooting roll the last 2 series. Would be interesting to see what Miami’s shooting percentage is when you eliminate points off turnovers (or normalize to the amount of turnovers they can reasonably expect to force going forward. By the naked eye it sort of looks like Miami can’t score in the halfcourt against the Dallas D.

Meanwhile, I just love Jeff Van Gundy. It’s probably too much to hope that he would come back and coach our team, but I was listening to him on the radio yesterday morning, and the dude just gets it. He must really be waiting for exactly the right job, because he should be the #1 on any team’s list, including ours.

You know, this is what’s great about professional sports, just when you think it’s all going according to plan (Miami has figured out how to close games, they’ve got 2 of the top 5 players in the league so of course they’re gonna win the title, etc. etc.) a game like last night occurs. Just amazing.

Spoelstra’s taking a lot of heat on the airwaves this morning for not fouling on the last play and having Bosh on Nowitzki, but of course it should never have come down to that. How many 3’s did Miami launch in the last 3 minutes? Just horrible execution; yes, credit Dallas’ D, but when you’re protecting a lead, why are you firing up one 3 pointer after another?

BREAKING NEWS: Knicks announce Donnie Walsh is leaving his position as team president. Will remain as consultant. Details to come…Glen Grunwald will run the team as interim GM for the time being as a search for a new president and GM.