How Scientific Conclusions Affected NPS Decision Making

To address how conclusions based on science affected NPS decision making required the committee to identify decisions made by NPS and infer the role that science may have played in those decisions. The committee identifies the following three explicit decisions:

the decision to include a new restriction on boat use in the 2008 Special Use Permit for the commercial shellfish mariculture operation in Drakes Estero;

the decision to release Drakes Estero: A Sheltered Wilderness Estuary in its four versions (2006; 2007a; 2007b; 2007c) and subsequent Acknowledgment of Corrections (NPS, 2007e) and Clarification (NPS, 2007d) documents; and

the decision to discourage DBOC from seeking a new RUO to continue operations beyond 2012 when the current RUO expires.

DECISION TO SIGN THE APRIL 2008 SPECIALUSE PERMIT THROUGH 2012

A Special Use Permit for commercial operations of DBOC within a national park was signed in April 2008. NPS included in the permit a new restriction on boat use by DBOC that directed boat passage away from a more direct deep channel (the “lateral channel”) throughout the year, not just during the harbor seal pupping season. This restriction closes the channel running close to one of the haul-out sites and redirects oyster boat traffic to a more circuitous route over shallower eelgrass beds. This new

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How Scientific Conclusions Affected
NPS Decision Making
To address how conclusions based on science affected NPS decision
making required the committee to identify decisions made by NPS and
infer the role that science may have played in those decisions. The com -
mittee identifies the following three explicit decisions:
• the decision to include a new restriction on boat use in the 2008
Special Use Permit for the commercial shellfish mariculture operation in
Drakes Estero;
• the decision to release Drakes Estero: A Sheltered Wilderness Estuary
in its four versions (2006; 2007a; 2007b; 2007c) and subsequent Acknowl -
edgment of Corrections (NPS, 2007e) and Clarification (NPS, 2007d) docu-
ments; and
• the decision to discourage DBOC from seeking a new RUO to con-
tinue operations beyond 2012 when the current RUO expires.
DECISION TO SIGN THE APRIL 2008 SPECIAL
USE PERMIT THROUGH 2012
A Special Use Permit for commercial operations of DBOC within a
national park was signed in April 2008. NPS included in the permit a new
restriction on boat use by DBOC that directed boat passage away from
a more direct deep channel (the “lateral channel”) throughout the year,
not just during the harbor seal pupping season. This restriction closes the
channel running close to one of the haul-out sites and redirects oyster boat
traffic to a more circuitous route over shallower eelgrass beds. This new
0

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HOW SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSIONS AFFECTED NPS DECISION MAKING
provision may have been motivated by concluding that motorboats pose
a high risk of disturbance to the harbor seal, a species protected under
the Marine Mammal Protection Act, and that risk is more serious than
the increased damage to eelgrass beds from propeller scars. This deci-
sion is consistent with the recommended Resource Protection Measures
enumerated in the California Coastal Commission’s Consent Order (CCC-
07-CD-11, Nov. 29, 2007). By comparison to the year-round closure of the
lateral channel to oyster boats, kayak use in Drakes Estero is restricted
from March 1 through June 30, “to protect harbor seals from disturbance
during the most crucial part of the pupping season,” (available at www.
nps.gov/pore/planyourvisit/kayak.htm).
DECISION TO WRITE AND RELEASE Drakes
estero: a sheltereD WilDerness estuary
PLUS THE ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF CORRECTIONS
AND CLARIFICATION DOCUMENTS
NPS reported scientific observations and conclusions in all four ver-
sions of Drakes Estero: A Sheltered Wilderness Estuary that were released
to the public. In that sense, this decision involved science. The degree to
which the science motivated the decision to release this report is unclear.
The scientific conclusions presented in the report included several that
did not match what can be rigorously concluded from the limited sci -
entific studies that have been conducted in Drakes Estero or analogous
systems (see above). The scientific information on impacts of oyster cul -
turing at Drakes Estero is limited and provides an insufficient basis on
which to address some of the most important concerns about impacts.
Based on this committee’s conclusions, the most important concerns relate
mostly to activities of the culturists rather than to presence of and activi -
ties of the oysters themselves, which is not reflected in the Drakes Estero:
A Sheltered Wilderness Estuary. Potential negative effects of activities of the
culturists on the harbor seal population represent the most serious con-
cern, which cannot be fully evaluated because these effects have not been
directly investigated. The reinterpretations of available science, prompted
by stakeholder criticism and aided by solicited and unsolicited expert
assessments, and corrections of misstatements of existing information
in NPS documents appeared to play roles in motivating NPS to pre-
pare and release the Acknowledgment of Corrections and Clarification
documents.
DECISION TO DISCOURAGE DBOC FROM SEEKING A NEW RUO
The crux of the controversy over Drakes Estero is the pending expi-
ration of the RUO in 2012. The actions taken by Point Reyes National

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SHELLFISH MARICULTURE IN DRAKES ESTERO
Seashore, including the addition of specific language in the Special Use
Permit on termination of the lease, the preparation and release of Drakes
Estero: A Sheltered Wilderness Estuary, and the denial of a permit for
research on whether it would be possible to grow native oysters in the
estero, indicate that the NPS decided to discourage DBOC from seeking
an extension of the RUO (DOI, 2008). NPS’s actions are consistent with the
Department of the Interior’s interpretation of the Wilderness Act and the
Point Reyes Wilderness Act of 1976 (Appendix A). The July 2008 Inspec -
tor General’s Report of Investigation (DOI, 2008) spoke unambiguously
to this issue, noting that the Department of the Interior’s Office of the
Solicitor advised Point Reyes National Seashore that the Superintendent
does not have the authority to extend the RUO because of the congres-
sional mandate designating Drakes Estero as Potential Wilderness (DOI,
2004; see Appendix A). The Solicitor stated that under the Wilderness Act,
NPS is mandated to convert Potential Wilderness to Wilderness status as
soon as the nonconforming activity can be removed. Consequently, our
committee concludes that this decision on extension of the RUO hinges
on the legal interpretation of the legislative mandate rather than a scien -
tific analysis of the impacts of DBOC on the Drakes Estero ecosystem. As
such, more scientific study of DBOC operations and Drakes Estero would
not necessarily affect National Park Service decisions about the future of
oyster farming in the estero.
In the past, NPS had incorporated oyster farming into the General
Management Plan (National Park Service, 1980; cited in Wechsler, 2004)
under the Point Reyes National Seashore objective to preserve aspects of
cultural significance. If DBOC is successful in having the RUO extended
beyond 2012, a collaborative interpretative center could be established
between DBOC and NPS, as had been proposed by the previous owner
(Tom Moore, personal communication). Results of scientific research on
the role of cultured oysters in the Drakes Estero ecosystem would then
be valuable contributions to the center. Collaboration on an interpretive
center would be consistent with the purposes of the original RUO “for
the purpose of processing and selling wholesale and retail oysters, sea -
food, and complimentary food items, the interpretation of oyster cultiva -
tion to the visiting public, and residential purposes reasonably incidental
thereto. . . .” (DOI, 2004; see Appendix A). Under this scenario, science
would be needed to set and adaptively modify permit conditions under
the new RUO and to develop exhibits for the interpretative center on the
ecological role of oysters as an ecosystem engineer or foundation species
in estuarine ecosystems, the history of overexploitation, the challenges
of nonnative species, conservation problems, the issue of how changing
ecological baselines influences wildlife preservation and habitat restora -
tion, the relationships between mankind and oysters, and the challenges
of environmental and cultural sustainability. Activities of oyster culturists

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HOW SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSIONS AFFECTED NPS DECISION MAKING
necessarily have some impact on the ecosystem of Drakes Estero, subject
to regulation by multiple management authorities to minimize serious
impacts, while perpetuating a cultural history of oyster farming that goes
back to the 1930s (Anima, 1990, 1991). Cattle ranching and dairy farming
persist within the Point Reyes National Seashore as part of the cultural
history of the lands, continuing the historical uses of the land that date
back to the time of European colonization of this region of California.
Oyster farming as currently practiced has a similar, although shorter, cul -
tural history and heritage with modest impacts (positive and negative) on
the ecosystem. The ecological impacts of the oysters themselves replace in
part an ecological function that was lost when the native oyster became
functionally extinct during the mid 1800s to early 1900s as a consequence
of unregulated human exploitation (Kirby, 2004). In addition, efforts to
restore a self-sustaining population of native oysters in Drakes Estero
could be promoted and supported. Science would play an important role
in that restoration planning and implementation. Drakes Estero has been
recognized as one of the few locations on the U.S. west coast still envi -
ronmentally suitable for re-establishment of the native Olympia oyster
(Shaw, 1997).
RESEARCH NEEDS
Although Drakes Estero represents an ideal setting for addressing
many scientific questions of basic and applied value, the committee
restricts its suggestions for key research problems to those issues that
could improve management of valuable natural resources within Drakes
Estero. Results of research conducted to address these questions would
have importance that stretches far beyond their application to manage -
ment of Drakes Estero because the questions include important aspects
of fundamental science. Research to answer such questions is critically
needed in the Point Reyes National Seashore as in all National Parks. The
lack of sufficient resources in NPS to support the research required to har-
monize the facilitation of public use and enjoyment of the parks with the
preservation of environmental and cultural assets is a national problem.
The availability of sufficient resources to assess environmental impacts of
management alternatives and to fund rigorous scientific review of NPS
documents prior to release could have provided sufficient information
to avoid over-interpretations and misstatements of science, such as those
that appeared in the NPS depictions of oyster farm impacts in the Drakes
Estero case.
The following research topics are not prioritized, but they address
important unanswered questions about the various potential impacts of
shellfish mariculture examined by the committee:

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SHELLFISH MARICULTURE IN DRAKES ESTERO
• Carrying capacity for suspension-feeding bivalves. An interdisci-
plinary oceanographic field and modeling study, coupled with empirical
field monitoring validation on a recurring basis to account for climatic
and other environmental change, is needed to determine how the physical
flushing conditions in the estero determine the maximal carrying capac -
ity for oyster biomass so as to avoid over-exploitation of phytoplankton
resources shared with other suspension feeders and avoid organic deposi-
tion of biodeposits high enough to induce sedimentary anoxia.
• Eelgrass, benthic invertebrates, and fishes. A more detailed sam-
pling or preferably experimental study is required to test how shellfish
mariculture influences benthic invertebrates (including the native oyster),
eelgrass, and fishes in Drakes Estero. Population-level research on how
eelgrass responds to mariculture and why it is expanding in this estu-
ary and not in many other systems would be useful. Also, more work is
needed to understand how eelgrass, open sediment, native shellfish beds,
and mariculture operations function as habitats for fish and benthic inver-
tebrates at a landscape scale in the estero and other similar systems.
• Control of Didemnum vexillum. Further understanding of how to
control abundances and reduce the risk of spread of the invasive Didem-
num vexillum is urgently needed, not just in Drakes Estero but also world-
wide. For Drakes Estero, methods need to be developed for how to dis -
pose of Didemnum after scraping it off racks and oyster shells to prevent
it from spreading by fragmentation. The current practice of disposing of
scraped-off fragments into the estero increases the risk of spread, perhaps
even to eelgrass given recent reports of the colonization of eelgrass blades
elsewhere.
• Disease and parasite research for bivalve mariculture. Further
research into controlling diseases potentially spread with transport of
shellfish larvae, such as oyster herpes viruses, is important to the maricul-
ture industry broadly and to protecting wild stocks of shellfish in recipi -
ent water basins.
• Oceanographic processes leading to poor shellfish larval sur-
vival. Major West Coast shellfish hatcheries are currently suffering cata-
strophic failures in rearing shellfish larvae that appear to be similar to
failures in the survival of native bivalve larvae. Larval survival appears
to be affected by major changes over the past 2–3 years in coastal ocean
upwelling, which involves lowering the pH (Feeley et al., 2008), or chang-
ing the abundance of pathogenic microorganisms. This problem is urgent
and will require interdisciplinary studies of natural- and human-induced
processes because of its unusual nature and its threat to both wild and
cultured shellfish populations over wide areas of the West Coast.
• Pinniped monitoring program. The coordinated pinniped moni-
toring program across the San Francisco parks network now provides
an important resource providing as yet untapped potential for assessing

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HOW SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSIONS AFFECTED NPS DECISION MAKING
trends in the abundance of harbor seals in Drakes Estero in relation to
wider regional trends. However, harbor seal haul-out surveys such as
this have limited power to detect trends in abundance. The committee,
therefore, recommends that NPS continue this program to provide an
adequate time series to assess both colony-specific and regional trends.
• Targeted, spatially-explicit study of activities of mariculturists
and their boats in Drakes Estero. Efforts to explain the changes in abun-
dance and behavior of wildlife populations in relation to natural events
and anthropogenic activities also require more robust data on patterns
of change. Future assessments of the potential impact of mariculture
disturbance in this area would greatly benefit from more detailed data
on spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of activities by the
oyster farm boats and culturists working around oyster bags and racks.
This information could be used to construct a more ecologically realistic
footprint of the mariculture activity, including potential interactions at
sea and on land. GPS loggers or transmitting systems would allow these
data to be collected remotely and the resulting footprint modeled using
standard techniques. Results could be used in adaptive management to
minimize any demonstrated impacts of mariculture activities.
• Individual seal and bird behavior and fitness studies. If needed
to manage future shellfish mariculture operations in Drakes Estero or
in other systems, any assessments of direct impacts to harbor seals and
birds would require a more detailed individual-based study using animal
tracking devices that will allow an assessment of responses to known dis-
turbances of different origin. However, the conservation benefits of such
a study must be carefully balanced against any potential adverse effects
resulting from more intrusive research techniques.
• Alternative oyster culture techniques. In the event of an exten-
sion of the RUO for DBOC, research would be needed on oyster culture
techniques that form an economically viable alternative to placing culture
bags near seal haul-out areas. The goal would be to find methods less dis-
ruptive to seals and birds. In addition, research on the viability of estab-
lishing a self-sustaining population of Olympia oysters would contribute
to the potential restoration of the historic baseline ecosystem in Drakes
Estero prior to over-exploitation of native oysters.
• Socioeconomic impacts of oyster mariculture on visitors to the
Point Reyes National Seashore. It would be worthwhile to the develop-
ment of NPS policy to assess the effects of oyster farming on the recre-
ational, cultural, and aesthetic experiences of visitors to the Point Reyes
National Seashore and to the economic value realized by these visitors.
A study of this nature could also assess, for example, the potential edu -
cational value of constructing an interpretive center around the oyster
culturing operations.

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SHELLFISH MARICULTURE IN DRAKES ESTERO
THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN DECISION MAKING
Two lines of argument against continued shellfish mariculture in
Drakes Estero have been raised: (1) shellfish mariculture is incompatible
with Wilderness status as defined in the U.S. Wilderness Act (P.L. 88-577,
Sep. 3, 1964; see Appendix A) and (2) shellfish mariculture should not take
place in Drakes Estero because of the risk of adverse ecological effects.
Science has more to say about the latter than the former.
In 2004, prior to the sale of the Johnson Oyster Company to the current
owners, the Department of the Interior’s Office of the Solicitor reviewed
the “potential wilderness” status of Drakes Estero and concluded that “the
Park Service is mandated by the Wilderness Act, the Point Reyes Wilder-
ness Act and its management policies, to convert Potential Wilderness, i.e.
the Johnson Oyster Company tract and adjoining Estero, to Wilderness
status as soon as the non-conforming use can be eliminated.” (DOI, 2004;
see Appendix A) This congressional mandate provides a legal basis for
not extending the RUO to DBOC beyond 2012, as cited in the report of the
Department of the Interior’s Office of Inspector General in finding that
the Superintendent of Point Reyes National Seashore does not have the
authority to extend the RUO beyond 2012 (DOI, 2008).
With regard to addressing the risk of ecological effects, NPS’s Man-
agement Policies prioritize the protection of natural resources, including
circumstances where the available scientific information contains sub -
stantial uncertainty: “In cases of uncertainty as to the impacts of activi -
ties on park natural resources, the protection of natural resources will
predominate” (NPS, 2006c). This policy could be applied to permitting
decisions before 2012 as well as providing an environmental rationale for
not extending the 40-year term of the RUO that was granted upon the
Johnson’s sale of the property to NPS in 1972.
After evaluating the limited scientific literature on Drakes Estero
and the relevant research from other areas, the committee concludes that
there is a lack of strong scientific evidence that shellfish farming has major
adverse ecological effects on Drakes Estero at the current (2008–2009)
levels of production and under current (2008–2009) operational practices,
including compliance with restrictions to protect eelgrass, seals, water-
birds, and other natural resources. Adaptive management could help
address effects, if any, that emerge with additional scientific research and
monitoring to more fully understand the Drakes Estero ecosystem and
the effects of shellfish farming. Importantly from a management perspec-
tive, lack of evidence of major adverse effects is not the same as proof of
no adverse effects nor is it a guarantee that such effects will not manifest
in the future. A more definitive understanding of the adverse or benefi -
cial effects cannot be readily or inexpensively obtained; the complexity
of marine ecosystems and responses to ongoing environmental change

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HOW SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSIONS AFFECTED NPS DECISION MAKING
(both natural and anthropogenic) requires substantial time and effort to
understand. This situation is not unique to Drakes Estero—uncertainty
about effects of human activities on ecosystems is a common feature of
most decisions about actions that affect natural resources.
The ultimate decision to permit or prohibit a particular activity, such
as shellfish farming, in a particular location, such as Drakes Estero, nec -
essarily requires value judgments and tradeoffs that can be informed,
but not resolved, by science. Science describes the effects (differences in
outcomes) that can be expected with and without shellfish farming in
Drakes Estero, the level of uncertainty given current knowledge about
these effects, and approaches to assess and balance potential risks and
benefits. Because stakeholders may reasonably assign different levels of
priority or importance to these effects and outcomes, there is no scientific
answer to the question of whether to extend the RUO for shellfish farm-
ing. Like other zoning and land use questions, this issue will be resolved
by policymakers charged with weighing the conflicting views and priori -
ties of society as part of the decision-making process.

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