The new GOP divide

Two years ago, Bobby Jindal was pushing a state law to adapt national curriculum standards to local schools; today, not only is the Louisiana governor suing the federal government to stop Common Core — or “ObamaCore,” as many Republicans have taken to calling it — but most prospective Republican presidential candidates, except Jeb Bush, have reversed themselves.

Likewise, two years ago, almost all GOP leaders were unified against gay marriage, supportive of most surveillance tactics designed to prevent terrorism attacks, opposed to a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and unwilling to accept any aspects of the Affordable Care Act.

Story Continued Below

But changing times, shifting coalitions and actions by President Barack Obama have conspired to reopen debate among GOP leaders on these and many other seemingly settled issues.

Now, as many of the men seeking to be the next Republican standard-bearer prepare to announce their candidacies, they find themselves reconsidering issues that once inspired such agreement that candidates competed over how strongly to impose the party’s beliefs, not what those beliefs should be.

The Common Core is one issue that once inspired broad agreement; now most prospective candidates are following Texas Gov. Rick Perry in moving in the other direction. Meanwhile, Ohio Gov. John Kasich is a big supporter of the Medicaid expansion that was part of the Affordable Care Act; but Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker argues it will simply make more people dependent on government. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is trying to roll back surveillance programs; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie warns that doing so could weaken national security.

As candidates step forward to debate these and other issues, they won’t just be campaigning to lead the party; they’ll also be seeking to define it. Here are some key areas of dispute:

Common Core

The education standards were relatively noncontroversial in 2012. Forty-five states had adopted them, although Gov. Rick Perry announced that summer that Texas wouldn’t. Now, most of the Republicans who once supported Common Core are backtracking amid a revolt on the right.

Two years ago, Jindal’s staff was reportedly pushing for a state law to help implement the standards. This summer the Louisiana governor sued the federal government to block them. Walker and Christie both oversaw Common Core’s implementation in their states. Walker recently promised to push for full repeal, and Christie has a commission exploring the standards’ effectiveness — giving him an out.

A major exception among the gubernatorial class eyeing 2016 is Bush. The former Florida governor has traveled across the country promoting Common Core and has called opposition to the standards “troubling.” Kasich also still supports the standards and chastised people who call them “ObamaCore.”

Ted Cruz of Texas, Marco Rubio of Florida and Paul of Kentucky, all senators considering White House runs, have spoken out against the standards, with Cruz and Paul promising to push for congressional action against them. Paul has declared that any supporter of Common Core “probably doesn’t have much chance of winning in a Republican primary.”

Even though the business community still backs Common Core, which grew out of a bipartisan National Governors Association initiative, Gallup has found surging opposition among GOP parents, up from 42 percent in April to 58 percent in October.

“It’s an issue that isn’t sexy enough for D.C. folks, but at the grass-roots level, it’s a very big deal and will be a measuring stick for all these guys,” conservative strategist Keith Appell said.

NSA eavesdropping

Almost all Republicans rallied to then-President George W. Bush’s defense when it came out during his second term that he secretly allowed the National Security Agency to do warrantless surveillance of foreigners’ communications with Americans. But in 2013, the leaks by Snowden revealed that the agency’s efforts went far beyond what was already known, generating huge debate over how much surveillance is too much.

Perhaps no potential 2016er has capitalized more on the Snowden affair than Paul, whose libertarian leanings have energized that wing of the GOP. The senator has sued the federal government to stop bulk collection of Americans’ data. In the process, he has run headlong into what might be called the Dick Cheney wing of the party, which never apologizes for the government doing anything that could stop a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.

The USA Freedom Act just failed during the lame-duck session. It would have ended the National Security Agency’s bulk collection of metadata but also extended parts of the PATRIOT Act into 2017. Cruz supported the bill as a compromise, but Paul voted against it because he said he didn’t want to extend the PATRIOT Act. Rubio also voted against the bill, but for the opposite reason: He warned that it would weaken national security.

Some of the governors considering 2016 runs also have taken Paul’s position on the NSA to task by framing it within the broader issue of protecting the country, especially amid spreading turbulence in the Middle East.

In the summer of 2013, Christie suggested Paul failed to understand the danger of terrorism, saying that those who challenge surveillance programs should hear from the relatives of Sept. 11 victims. Walker has said he is somewhere “in between” Christie and Paul on NSA wiretapping. He, as most other candidates probably will, called for “a balanced approach.”

Medicaid expansion

Back in 2012, the GOP presidential candidates all ran promising full repeal of the president’s health care law. It was a particularly tough stance for eventual nominee Mitt Romney, who was pilloried during the primaries because the health care plan he created as Massachusetts governor also had an individual mandate.

This time, several GOP governors who might run will take heat for expanding Medicaid under Obamacare. The expansion option comes with the promise that Washington will cover the full cost the first few years and 90 percent of it thereafter.

Christie couldn’t turn down the free money, and he expanded Medicaid with the strong support of his Democratic-controlled state legislature. Kasich in Ohio is maybe the most aggressively pro-expansion Republican in the 2016 mix. He makes a biblical case for giving people health care and circumvented his own GOP legislature to get it done.

Both men are very vulnerable on their right to Medicaid attacks — there’s a strong sense among the grass roots that the federal government won’t live up to its promise on providing funding and that expanding Medicaid will make it harder to repeal the overall health law.

Jindal and Perry strongly oppose Medicaid expansion. Although Walker has warned against government dependency, he has pushed his own version of state-funded expansion. It resulted in thousands of existing Medicaid patients getting kicked off and told to join Obamacare exchanges instead, but it also threw open the doors to thousands of the state’s poorest residents.

The candidates at the congressional level have been opposed to Medicaid expansion across the board. Cruz says expanding Medicaid will take “money away from teachers, roads, water, and other vital programs.” Paul was quoted telling a local paper in January: “We have to get people off Medicaid, not on Medicaid.”

Immigration

Two years ago, the GOP primary debate over immigration reform was more abstract. There had been no surge of children crossing the border, no call from the Republican National Committee to pass comprehensive immigration reform, no bill passed by the Senate and no executive action taken by the president to protect up to 5 million undocumented immigrants from deportation.

In 2016, Republican candidates will have these developments to chew on and probably more. They’ll be asked whether they want to renew the threat of deportation for millions, and they’ll be asked if they support the Senate immigration reform bill. In all likelihood, the immigration issue could prove a minefield for several likely candidates.

Perry was badly hit on immigration last time because he backed in-state college tuition for undocumented immigrants brought to the country as children. Rubio championed the bipartisan Senate bill — with the idea it would be a big-ticket accomplishment for a likely presidential bid — but it died in the House and he has since tried to separate himself from it. Some have suggested they are open to reform but not the Senate version.

Christie has steadfastly refused to articulate his position. “There’s no upside to me at this moment, to be candid, to discuss it,” he said in September.

Democrats will be keen to highlight immigration because they view it as a way to increase the Latino vote in key swing states such as Nevada, Colorado and Florida. Romney was crushed among Latinos last time after he lunged to the right by urging “self-deportation.”

The GOP donor class wants immigration reform; it wants more high-tech visas and doesn’t think it’s realistic to deport millions of people. Big-picture strategists worry the party won’t win general elections if it keeps alienating Latinos. But activists in early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire see illegal immigration as a scourge and want nothing beyond securing the border.

Gay marriage

Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who mulled a 2016 run, came out in support of same-sex marriage last year after being inspired by his openly gay son. Although Portman announced this week he won’t seek the White House, there’s still likely to be debate about the issue in a way there wasn’t in 2012.

Watch the tone. The Republican establishment doesn’t want to talk about gay marriage, knowing that many major donors, not to mention younger people, support gay rights.

But several would-be candidates need strong support from evangelicals in Iowa and South Carolina to have any path to the nomination. It’s easy to imagine former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee or former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who need these voters, calling out other candidates for appeasing the gay rights lobby.

Cruz last month slammed the Supreme Court’s decision not to take up lower court rulings that overturn gay marriage bans in several states, calling it “tragic and indefensible.” The senator has suggested that he will introduce a constitutional amendment that would prevent the federal government or courts from invalidating state bans on gay marriage.

Christie has said he’s still personally opposed to same-sex marriage but that the issue is “settled” in New Jersey. He dropped a lawsuit trying to stop such marriages on the grounds that he didn’t want to waste taxpayer money. Walker is in a similar boat, saying he supports Wisconsin’s ban but acquiescing to legal decisions that have rendered it null.

In 2012, Ron Paul (Rand Paul’s father and a libertarian icon) was the only GOP presidential candidate not to sign the National Organization for Marriage’s pledge promising to fight for traditional marriage. The group plans to issue a pledge again but does not know who will sign this time around.

“We will certainly oppose any Republican who chooses to go against the party’s platform on this issue,” NOM spokesman Joseph Grabowski said.