Hamas gains ground; Fatah remains leading party

Exit poll: Neither party gains majority; coalition Cabinet likely.

Exit poll: Neither party gains majority; coalition Cabinet likely.

January 26, 2006|SCOTT WILSON The Washington Post

RAMALLAH, West Bank -- Hamas won a large share of the vote Wednesday as Palestinians selected their first new parliament in a decade, but appeared to fall short of deposing the governing Fatah movement as the leading party in the legislature. An exit poll conducted in coordination with the Palestinian election commission showed that neither Fatah nor Hamas achieved a majority in the 132-seat legislature, meaning that the next Palestinian Cabinet will comprise a coalition of parties. But by gaining near parity with Fatah in parliament, Hamas will have a major role in the Palestinian Authority and complicate efforts to revive a dormant U.S.-backed peace plan that runs counter to the party's campaign platform in key respects. The poll, conducted by Beir Zeit University, projected Fatah winning 63 seats and Hamas 58 seats, leaving the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and an assortment of leftist and independent parties far behind. A second poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, also conducted in coordination with the election commission, showed Fatah winning 58 seats to Hamas' 53 seats. But the poll said that at least eight seats remained too close to predict. Officials results are expected today. Election officials and observers reported no serious problems either as the result of Israeli security measures or Palestinian factional rivalry that had threatened to disrupt voting in several cities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The officials said 77 percent of the 1.3 million registered Palestinian voters cast ballots on a brisk day, far surpassing the turnout in last year's presidential race. In an initial assessment, a member of one international observer mission described the voting as "a generally smooth process with only sporadic violence and a robust turnout." The observer from the National Democratic Institute/Carter Center delegation, who declined to be named, said the only apparent violation was the active campaigning that occurred throughout the day despite a Palestinian election law that requires campaigning to end 24 hours before the start of voting. But because all parties appeared to be violating the rule, the observer said, "at this point it doesn't appear to be a serious impediment to the election." The last parliamentary voting in 1996 led to a Fatah-dominated legislature, which has now been expanded by 50 percent. Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority and leader of Fatah, postponed the elections in July 2005 to secure an election law more favorable to his party. Hamas has built its popularity over the years through patient political organizing, charity work and an unyielding position regarding Israel. The party's charter calls for Israel's destruction, and Hamas' armed wing has carried out numerous deadly attacks on Israeli civilians, police and soldiers. The secular Fatah movement is suffering from generational divisions and a reputation for corrupt, ineffective government, although the Palestinian Authority's executive branch will remain under Abbas. Abbas, who has threatened to resign as president if he is unable to carry out his program after the elections, will now appoint a prime minister who must form a Cabinet approved by parliament. Although it is theoretically possible that Hamas could form the next government, it is expected that Fatah would be invited to do so and join with the nationalist and leftist parties to forge a parliamentary majority. As the main faction in the Palestine Liberation Organization, Fatah and Israel both endorsed in the 1993 Oslo accords and the U.S.-backed peace plan known as the road map signed in 2003. The plan has been frozen during the last years of the Palestinian uprising, but each side has pledged to return to its phased framework for creation of an independent Palestinian state. Hamas, on the other hand, has pledged to maintain its military wing, which Israel says must be dismantled before new peace talks take place under the road map. It is unclear how much influence Hamas could exert over a future peace process since it is not a member of the PLO, although its strong showing could hasten talks to bring the group inside the organization. Hamas supporters say the party, which Israel, the United States and Europe classify as a terrorist organization, will concentrate on political and educational reform before moving on to issues of peace and diplomacy. Israeli and U.S. officials have warned that its presence in government could undermine diplomatic initiatives and imperil foreign aid.