Scouting the Draft: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

One of my favorite stories from the recent Combine was one told by NFL Network's excellent analyst and draft expert Mike Mayock about his own introduction to Bill Parcells. The first thing the two-time Super Bowl champion head coach said upon meeting Mayock was, “You’re like a bull in high grass, Mike.” "What’s that?" asked Mayock. “You’re lost.” Parcells replied.

Mayock may have come a long way since then, but it's also fair to note that even the best of draft guys are wrong a lot of the time. On the other hand - so are head coaches and GMs. Those that try to comprehend the draft are always going to be in some high grass. That's one of the things that makes it so enjoyable: you can always either find a diamond in the rough, or take a can't-miss candidate who can -and does.

Mayock calls the defensive linemen the deepest group in the draft, but he also let his own perspective out a bit in doing so. I get what he’s saying, and he’s not wrong. I see the DEs and the DTs in very different terms, and I tend to see the players who will be taken as OLBs separately from the 4-3 DEs, which makes the entire exercise more difficult - sometimes it’s more clear where they fit than others, but in general I think about how they'd fit into different schemes. There are always several ways to use a particular skillset.

Mayock talked about how there are about eight guys with a first-round grade. That’s true when you put the three (or four, depending) groups together and it’s a good year for Denver to break their long DT slump - but it’s all about finding a guy who fits your scheme, with can be harder at #25. They’re there,of course, and they used to be called ‘value picks.’ It’s about understanding your scheme and sticking to the players who can fit into it. Good communication with everyone understanding what qualities matter the most really helps. A little luck never went amiss.

According to Pro Football Focus, Brodrick Bunkley had the #3 ranking in the league on run stops, which made a huge difference in Denver’s level of play even though he was often a two-down NT, with Ryan McBean coming in for nickel (and often dime) downs. Marcus Thomas played well overall, and McBean played the rotational 4-3 NT role far better than I'd expected. The area that Denver fell short up the middle was the role of the under tackle, and I had hoped that Thomas would show his athleticism in pushing up the middle in the single gap. It really didn’t happen - Denver didn’t get a sack out of either Bunkley or Thomas.

I think that Bunkley has to be offered a commensurate contract due to his powerful run-stopping talent, but Denver still badly needs that single-gap penetrator that can offer another five or six sacks. In the entire draft, there are a lot of DE/OLB guys who are being called DL players for the moment, and several will go to 3-4 teams. In the big guys, most of the talented players this year are best suited as NTs, although a lot of that can be a matter of scheme as well. Warren Sapp recognized Fletcher Cox as having the closest skillset to his own, and that’s high praise, considering the source. Let’s look at why he thought so:

Cox, a DT out of Mississippi State, didn’t get a lot of national press leading up to the end of the season but he’s getting a lot of looks from the college fans (including myself, increasingly), draftniks, scouts and coaches. He was recognized as the SEC's Lineman of the Week four times last season and showed up in Indy at 298 lb, only three pounds above his college playing weight. I saw him in a couple of games, and from what I’ve seen he seemed to have had an unusually explosive first step, the first key to success as an effective under tackle. His 1.63-second 10-yard split confirmed that and gave an indication of how elite it is. Hand use is something that every college player has to learn in greater degree in the NFL, and Cox is no exception, but he does use his hands well for his level. He also plays with exceptional leverage, the third jewel in the pass rush trifecta. There aren’t a lot like him this year, so if you like that archetype, the pickings are somewhat limited.

It didn’t take long for him to show his skills at Combine. He was one of the first DTs to run the 40, and he produced a fairly blazing 4.79 in the 40 and added 30 reps on the bench, which is a bit above average (28) and very good for a guy with 34.5-inch arms - longer arms are up against a physical disadvantage, which makes repeated lifting harder, changing the test to one of endurance rather than pure strength. His time in the 40 was far more impressive when considering his 10-yard split, making him faster than some of the RBs in that short initial burst when a pass rusher can do his primary damage - that’s explosion, and there’s not substitute for it. To put it in perspective, Cox tied the 10-yard spit of West Virginia pass-rush specialist Bruce Irvin, who plays at 245 lb and ran his own 40 in an unofficial 4.43, although the official time is 4.50. Cox reaches and gets his hands (10.4 inches) into OL players well. He’s also got a strong grip. He started for 2.5 years and he’s an early entry junior coming into the NFL, so he’ll have a learning curve. Even so - I don’t think that if he drops to Denver that they should or even could resist taking him. You can’t have a top pass pressure line without a penetrating under tackle.

Cornerback is a big position of need right now for Denver, and several perspectives might reveal themselves, but if they don’t add that inside pass rushing presence in either FA or the draft, they will tend to continue to struggle against better passing attacks and OLs just as they did in 2011. This isn’t new, and it isn’t news to EFX. The problem they’re likely to face is seeing other teams with the same need pulling LSU's Michael Brockers off the table; Cox could go shortly thereafter, and they know that, too. Who falls to the Broncos - at whatever position they go with among their needs and possible moves - will make all the difference. I expect a lot of movement in the first round this year; it should be an eventful draft.

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

You made some good points, ivan. I have a feeling that DJ and Warren may be off that list this year - and probably off the roster. I am guessing here: replaced by another DT and a FA QB.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-03-03 22:31:20

Thanks for yet another excellent entry, Doc!

I really like both Cox and Still for DT's. I think either of them could be great in orange and blue. It'll be interesting to see what the broncos do if FA this year, I feel like because of the lockout, there are more UFA's this year who are young and talented with the potential to have a consistent positive impact on a team for years after their signings. I can't wait to see EFX's plan unfold.

Posted by AlexCrean on 2012-03-02 09:13:38

while it will be important to vet his character concerns, Jenkins is excellent on the field. he's great in man-coverage (scheme fit for DEN), he's physical in the run-game and is a total ball hawk. IF after interviewing the man, EFX feel comfortable taking on his personality, I think he could be a slam dunk.

Posted by AlexCrean on 2012-03-02 09:06:24

"FAs will unfortunately have to be used to fill the holes created over the years by failed drafts. But they should probably be used carefully."

I completely agree with you. That is why this years FA is a great opportunity because there is starter quality and relative youth in the market. If you dont however get those guys you dont go looking for 2nd or 3rd best as that is when you get yourself tied up in bad FA contracts.

Posted by Steve Williams on 2012-03-02 03:15:26

bad move. really bad move. i would trade the pick if that was our only option.

Posted by Doug SurfinGator on 2012-03-01 23:03:40

Again, Doc, thanks for an informative and thought provoking article.

I think, for the Broncos, the process this year of combining draft picks and FAs will be interesting. The Broncos can use improvement pretty much across the board. Everyone has their favorite crucial need to fill as the top priority. It will be difficult to be patient. I persoanlly think the QB position is the weakest.

A week or so ago I made a point in a post that the Broncos drafts in the last 10 years have not been especially productive. Only 11 players on the current roster were drafted by the Broncos in the 8 years 2002 - 2009. In the last two years, 2010-2011, 15 current members of the roster have been drafted, which is much better.IMO failed drafts require dependance on FAs, not IMO a prescription for success.This year, we still have big roster holes. In addition, we have 20 or so FAs leaving our current roster unless retained, many of which will probably not be. Result is that our roster is very thin.

I'm trying to work out in my mind the best way to develop a winning roster, given the new CBA and salary Cap realities, and I've tentatively come up with a kind of formula that fills a roster of about 65 (53 plus 8 practice squad and 4 IRs, etc) with 5 impact players (highest salaried), 20 veteran players (or 2nd contracts who provide most of the starters and rotational players) and 40 developmental players (1st contracts). A consistant winner will have the highest value per cost within each of these areas.

IMO the next couple of years will be important for the development of the roster. FAs will unfortunately have to be used to fill the holes created over the years by failed drafts. But they should probably be used carefully. I see few valuable impact players acquired this way (most FAs are either discards or players who have priced themselves above their value).

Major attention should be placed in drafting quality players (BPAa), especially in the first two rounds. After those two rounds you hope that 3-5 players of those added through later round drafts or UDFAs will become important contributors to the depth of the roster. But if those first two rounds consistently fail, there is no good way to recover. (in 2009 the Broncos had 5 picks in rounds 1 & 2 - Moreno, Ayers, Alphonso Smith, McBath, and Richard Quinn - not especially impressive).

To the point of your articles. You highlight for me, potential players who might be available in rounds later than the first who might become quality, if not impact, players. That will be a key to the development of the roster over the next 5 years (sorry, 3 years IMO is not long enough).

I currently haveFletcher Cos at about #20 on the my draft list. So he may or may not be available. He's definitely a player with apparent upside. He may, as a result rise. However, this is fickled time and other players may rise to put him realistically within our sights. But that will affect others as well, many of whom will be temptations - i.e. Still, Kirkpatrick, Poe and Cordy Glenn.

I like this time of year. And thanks again for the article.

Posted by ivanthenotsobad on 2012-03-01 22:08:52

The Broncos need to draft Janoris Jenkins if he's there. Shut down corner, better than Joe Haden who went 5th overall a few years ago and has been great.

JANORIS JENKINS PLEASE!

Posted by HavanaBronco on 2012-03-01 19:21:51

You're welcome, BK. Page went from Minnesota to Chicago and i used to watch him when he was with both teams. I believe that he's a Minnesota State Supreme Court judge - he was a Rhodes Scholar before playing in the NFL. Quite a man. I don't think I know of anyone else who is in the Football HoF and an Associate Judge on a State Supreme Court bench.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-03-01 19:14:33

Fan, it's a good point, and one that I also looked at. The problem in this case is that there is little chance of the sacks coming from the DTs (although kudos to Ryan McBean on his 4), which makes it easier for the offense to scheme for the edge rush. A faster Mike coming on A gap blitzes, moving Miller to change that to a double A gap blitz, getting a DT with light feet who can stunt more (Vickerson used to do that well) and so forth are ways of helping that out, but each of them have potential problems given the Broncos current personnel. The theory is that you'd like to have sack potential out of all 4-5 guys on the DL on pass downs, and Denver is two positions shy of that. While few teams can achieve it fully, you want to come a lot closer than the 4 sacks that Denver managed out of 3 DTs. If you've got Miller and Doom on the edges, Ayers as a swing DE/DT and an under tackle who is a danger to the QB plus a NT - say McBean, for those 4 extra sacks, since he's usually in on pass downs anyway - and you're a lot closer to succeeding since the OL has to account for an extra potential sack rusher. If they find they can handle the DTs without exposing the QB, the DEs are in for a hard day.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-03-01 19:12:10

Excellent article on a very good prospect who has all of the tools to become a real force in the NFL. He probably won't last much beyond the top ten - if then.

That kind of initial explosion off the line is similar to Alan Page who used to play for Minnesota back in the day.

The Parcells - Mayock story is priceless.

Thanks, doc.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2012-03-01 18:32:49

Nice work Doc I appreciate the whole series.

I have more of a philosophical question. I of course would like warren sapp in his prime play DT. But with Miller and Doom would it be better to just get someone who can get in the QBs face if not get to the QB and spend the other resources on CB and Safety? I'm thinking that with those two guys we just need someone who can keep the QB from stepping up in the pocket because they'll get to him.

Posted by Fan in Exile on 2012-03-01 18:27:05

I am all over the board on who Denver should take. With Cox likely gone, it will come down to BPA.

here's hoping we get a gift-wrapped top 15 player that falls into our laps - but please not Tannehill. Whoever that might be.

Posted by Orange_and_Blue on 2012-03-01 16:44:53

Thanks, rich. Will do!

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-03-01 15:47:00

Nice question, Josh. As far as Judie, I'll talk a bit about him when i got to CBs. The entire issue of what position to go with first 0 and I've seen DT, DE, MLB, TE and CB so far, all of which you can legitimately argue - will be huge, and until whatever trades are made and whatever picks are swapped, I wouldn't be ready to say this guy over that one. What I would say is that Denver will need to fill the under tackle role effectively next year - zero sacks except for Ayers 3 pre-playoff sacks, which about what I think you can expect from him - or they're not going to get the kind of push they need up the middle on passing downs. Billy Winn is an option, Cox might be, etc. Teams will take their own biggest need, and lot so surprises will happen in Round one this year, I suspect. If a Barry Cofield comes on the market, Denver might even solve this one early and go to the draft in better shape. Right now, I wanted to point out the importance of the position for this year, as well as to congratulate Cox on an excellent draft and college career.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2012-03-01 15:46:47

With Fletcher Cox's eye-opening combine, there is little chance he falls to #25. Cox is like a poor man's Marcel Dareus and has shown that he is is a better player, with better upside, than Brockers or Still. I find it much more likely that either Brockers or Still drops to 25, in which case I would rather pick Jerel Worthy, although I view all three (Brockers, Still, Worthy) as 2nd round talents.

Xanders has shown a propensity to trade. If the Broncos give up their 1st (25th) and 3rd (88th), they could feasibly move up to 20th or 21st...if Cox is still on the board, assuming Tennesee or Cincinnati wants to trade.

So would you rather have Cox?

...or Worthy and someone like Coryell Judie?

Posted by josh price on 2012-03-01 15:35:13

great write up on a player I've liked since the start of draft season. My only fear is that his impressive combine has put him out of our reach. Great stuff Doc, love these draft profiles. Keep it up!