The Edmonton Oilers and GM Steve Tambellini have boxed themselves in with Sam Gagner's summer contract. Content to sign him to a 1-year deal, the young center has delivered impressive boxcars and will cost a pretty penny--and he's eligible for free agency just around the corner. Steve Tambellini is faced with buying free agent seasons at a premium, or trading 89.

SHOULD THEY SIGN HIM?

Taken from pretty much every angle, Sam Gagner's offensive numbers are good:

Overall: 39, 14-21-35 (2nd on Oilers)

Even: 39, 10-9-19 (tied-2nd on Oilers)

PP: 39, 39, 4-10-14 (tied-1st on Oilers)

PK: 39, 0-2-2 (tied-1st on Oilers)

Gagner's 35 points have him tied for 24th in the entire NHL, and if we were looking at a full season the youngster would be on pace for a 70-point season. He's also a player the coach counts on based on TOI:

EV: 14:37 per game (4th among Oiler forwards)

PP: 2:50 per game (4th among Oiler forwards)

PK: 1:45 per game (5th among Oiler forwards)

So, based on those totals I think it's safe to suggest that Gagner is a pure "2nd line" forward on a healthy Oilers club, at least based on the way Ralph Krueger is using him this season. Fair?

CONSISTENCY!

When the Oilers signed Gagner to a mere one-year deal, there was a lot of chatter about consistency. Gagner has been an Oiler for a long time now--this is his sixth season--and all of the years before had at least one item that hurt his report card. Last season, he went a long period without impacting the offense as an example (Gagner went 19, 4-3-7 to close out the season after a brilliant 13, 9-9-18 February). This season, the offense has been consistent:

January: 7, 3-5-8

February: 12, 3-8-11

March: 15, 7-5-12

April: 5, 1-3-4

On the way to what would be his career season if it rolled out over 82 games.

THEN WHAT'S THE PROBLEM?

Well, it's like this: coach Ralph Krueger appears to be trying to get Samwise offensive opportunities with the third and fourth (roughly) best wingers on the team, and 89 and those wingers simply CAN NOT do one damn thing with it in terms of outshooting the opposition and outchancing the other guy 5x5 with death on the line.

Any way you look at this, Gagner centers a line that borders on tragedy. The most confusing part? The WOWY numbers tell us that during zone-adjusted zone start/close situations Gagner-Hemsky isn't working. This is a duo one would expect to flourish against the softer parade. Why isn't it working?

maybe it's the rookie (Yakupov) or the young winger (Paajarvi) having a hard time.

maybe it's the Hemsky injury

Or, maybe it is as Tyler Dellow described today in a brilliant item over at his site. Tyler's conclusion--it's on management to answer for and figure out this mess (beyond the 1line) is the most important item.

And with Gagner's contract up--and a signficant increase in pay likely--this is very important right bloody now.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

There's been much clamoring about Sam Gagner's lack of size being a major issue for the Oilers. I don't think that's a huge deal--we all remember how useful size looked when JF Jacques and Ryan Stone joined the skilled guys--but this season long slump by the 2line may be something Sam Gagner does not survive. Samwise will enter the summer expecting a big raise and a long term deal, and could find himself in a new city as early as draft day.

On the other hand, his coach considers him the 4th best option among forwards, and he's having his finest offensive season.

Confused? Me too.

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If Dithers decides not to resign Gagner and trade him at the draft then he has to be able to get a 2nd line center that can put up at least 50 points to replace him, and Id be shocked to see ST pull an actual "hockey trade" like that.

I think Sam's season is a blessing. There are much more options now available. His value is high. The only situation we lose is if we sign him to an over inflated contract.... Oh my god. I just saddened myself.

Well I understand if they see him as an asset to move. But if he leaves town without another centre available to take his place, let's just write off this rebuild and start a new one cause this team is going nowhere without depth at centre. And we're already 1 injury away from Smyth as 4th line centre...

Well I understand if they see him as an asset to move. But if he leaves town without another centre available to take his place, let's just write off this rebuild and start a new one cause this team is going nowhere without depth at centre. And we're already 1 injury away from Smyth as 4th line centre...

And, yet, Mike Gillis can acquire Derek Roy to play 3rd line centre for the Canucks and not bat an eyelash.

Considering the Oilers have been drafting in the top 10 forever, why don't they have the assets to acquire a player like Roy (cap hit $4M) to replace Gagner?

I would like to see the Oil put together a package of players, say Gagner and Hemsky for Seguin. Likely not enough but if for some reason Boston doesn't see him long term as a centre perhaps something can be done. I like Gagner but I have yet to see him "own" the situation in tough games that mean something. When Hall is rolling he controls situations but there is not many times when Gagner grabs the puck I think something great is going to happen.

So either we sign gags and find him a winger(or2)that can retrieve the puck, break the oppositions cycle in our zone, and pass him the puck or we need to find a center to play with 83,64,or91, or both. Wonderful, at least mgt. cant sit on their hands(rotate on their thumbs) and do nothing. Still wonder with Buf selling everything off at the deadline why we didnt go after Ott, seeing as we wouldnt be hashing this out now if they had.

Hemsky is death to Gagner. Always has been. Don't know why. This has been compounded by his being hurt far longer than we probably know. Buddy is on fire for a game and invisible for half a dozen.

Although he's chaotic while learning on the job (alot of people forget this), Yakupov with Gagner has shown moments of brilliance. The betting man would keep Gagner/Yak together for the balance of the year and find a suitable third that'll work with them for next year.

Even though he's shown marked improvement, PRV is far better suited to a 3rd line checking/secondary scoring role. Would Harti/Lander/PRV work? They too showed promise, but as we often do here in Oilers land they were broken up as soon as they showed promise.

Then you go with any of Smyth/Horcoff/face puncher/face puncher sub on the fourth and/or flush the crap out of the system and find a decent 4th liner.

As Robert Burns stated in not exactly these words: The best laid schemes of mice and men often go astray and leave us nought but grief and pain for promised joy.

Sounds like the work of KLowe and Tambellini. How much grief and pain for promised joy do the Oiler fans need to endure as a result of their body of work? The difficult situation the club finds itself in regarding Gagner is only one of many screwups. Can anyone trust them to improve this team by filling the obvious holes while ably managing its assets, placing it strategically within the salary cap and the limited number of contracts?

For the last three seasons we at least had exciting last place hockey and could look forward to being winners in the lottery. This season the club will probably miss the first 10 picks and continue the unproductive and disappointing rebuild.

Unless a suitable replacement for the second line becomes available, I don't see him being moved.

Sammy is a hard player to figure. If he was on the wing, I don't think that too many people would have much of a problem with him. We have more depth on the wing to be able to afford a move there if you ask me.

I'm suggesting Toronto has found two players who compliment Kadri very well. As I've mentioned above, Hemsky sewers Gagner (albeit I don't know why specifically). Yakupov is pure chaos and PRV is still learning the North American game.

Gagner and Yakupov WILL work, given time I believe. But they still need a complimentary third. Harti perhaps or an import.

I know the theory is pairs, but the reason Hall/RNH/Eberle work is because they each compliment the other so well. Our second line is askew. Guys better at hockey analysis might suggest why, but all I know is that's the problem.

I'm suggesting Toronto has found two players who compliment Kadri very well. As I've mentioned above, Hemsky sewers Gagner (albeit I don't know why specifically). Yakupov is pure chaos and PRV is still learning the North American game.

Gagner and Yakupov WILL work, given time I believe. But they still need a complimentary third. Harti perhaps or an import.

I know the theory is pairs, but the reason Hall/RNH/Eberle work is because they each compliment the other so well. Our second line is askew. Guys better at hockey analysis might suggest why, but all I know is that's the problem.

Phhhttt...the problem is Gagner.

He can't play D worth a lick and cheats for offense.

Yakupov won't help because he doesn't have a clue about where his own zone is but he isn't in his 6th year in the league either.

Kadri was sent to the AHL twice because he didn't have the chops to play D in the NHL and he learned his lessons well.

Not only is he outscoring Gagner but he is also +19 while Gagner is -6.

Hmmm.... St Louis has just 9 goals this season. Are his 40 assists not useful? If you look at comparable contracts between 4.5 and 5.5 million, Gagner's offensive production as of this season would put him near the top of the pack. The more important issue, then, becomes whether you think he will repeat these numbers. This is the most important question, which I don't have an answer for, but surely your statement suggests you have put a mouse click's worth of thought into it, because track records are not always the best gauge of how a player will do (e.g. your "ever scored more than 25 goals in a season theory") - so, by your completely flawed logic, we should earmark 5+ million a season for Penner because he has scored 32 goals in a season? I will quote you on this one, "LOL." I will even disagree with your assertion that Gagner will not have scored 25 goals in a season because he is clearly on pace to crack that this year, and it is not his fault that this season was shorter. Further, you are clearly biased in your negativity towards the Oilers if you are choosing to laugh about the 3 players who have 5 million and less than 25 goals in a season. One is Hemsky, who is a highly talented player who most people would not really claim is a highly overpaid player. Certainly nowhere even remotely close to the worst contracts in the NHL. Second in Horcoff, which is the inexcusable albatross (but at least we will get him off the books soon, before the other contracts need to be filled). And third could be Gagner, who, again, may be full value for 5 million over 4 years if he puts it all together. You certainly cannot prove otherwise. There are many bad contracts out there on various teams (defensemen included); I could point to a few on every team. So please stop spouting crap and purporting to be an expert on bad contracts based on flawed data. But the final point, which you may agree with, is that the Oilers would be able to afford 5 million for a good 2nd line center if they weren't paying 5.5 for their 3rd line center...

Im trying to figure out if he was that guy sitting next to me in my unversity stats class who was doing it for the 4th time

or

If he is the bad example that the the editors of "Stats for Dummies" use a consistent reference

Maybe he thought 4 for 4 was a good thing.

He does have a point on some items I just can't understand why the example is the Canucks and Gillis.

He inherited a better team than Lowe and to date has done no more with it than Lowe. ( division champs mean nothing)

I am not even a Lowe defender but I can't get behind his argument when I GM like Lombardi built his team and then made ballsy trades and went out an won the cup, and is position better for years to come.

I actually think if DSF substituted LA for Van and Lombardi for Gillis, it would be reasonable.

Gagner is an RFA come July. Imagining that maybe others may be interested in his services, then am I correct to conclude that the compensation the Oilers would receive for Gagner is a 2nd round pick? That compensation is based on his current salary.

Magnus Paajarvi is in same boat this July and would capture a 3rd pick based on his current salary.

Gagner is an RFA come July. Imagining that maybe others may be interested in his services, then am I correct to conclude that the compensation the Oilers would receive for Gagner is a 2nd round pick? That compensation is based on his current salary.

Magnus Paajarvi is in same boat this July and would capture a 3rd pick based on his current salary.

Does Hemsky play good with anyone? Seriously? Hemsky is talented, but any time he does something "wow" it's usually some act by himself. He doesn't play with others. You can see it on Gagners face when Hemsky puts the team offside every other shift with the extra move.

Until Hemsky understands how to play a system no one will understand how to play with him. He does what ever he wants. And it's usually on the fly.

I don't remember Hemsky making other players better in the last five seasons.

We are still not a good team, as even Columbus has caught up to us. Offer him a short term with 10% raise . Time to use assets for upsizing if his demands are not reasonable for our situation . Is he a clutch player for us down the line ? There is the criticism of his defence and lack of faceoff prowess , not to mention he gets pushed around by bigger clubs like a majority of our offensive players . What about raises for other emerging youth such as Hopkins, Yakupov and Schultz if we overpay him on a long term basis ?

Yakupov won't help because he doesn't have a clue about where his own zone is but he isn't in his 6th year in the league either.

Kadri was sent to the AHL twice because he didn't have the chops to play D in the NHL and he learned his lessons well.

Not only is he outscoring Gagner but he is also +19 while Gagner is -6.

RESULTS. MATTER.

How is a guy that can't play D worth a lick becoming one of our best PK'ers?

And like I said before, those +/- stats have ALOT to do with who you're playing with. That includes your D pairing too. Gagner spends a crapload of time in his own zone because his D partners use "around the glass and out" as the standard pass-out. 5 minutes of game tape will get any team prepared for that slick move (as we've seen over and over again this year - teams waiting just inside the blue line for that juicy "out").

Bottom line - you get rid of Gagner you better be bringing back someone who can generate at least as much scoring potential, directly or indirectly or we lose our shirts on that trade. And no, a high prospect doesn't get it done. It has to be an actual sure-thing NHL'er.

My feeling is our weak D is what's hampering our second line more than any other one thing. If Gagner is "cheating for offense" it's because he's overcompensating for extremely weak outbound puck movement.