I'm down on the Falcons this season, and most of it is because of their defense and we just saw them fail to cover at Chicago. In the NFC title game last season, the Falcons won 44-21 with a total at 59.5. Atlanta has gone Over in its last 11 home games and Green Bay just put up 370 yards on a quality Seahawks defense. Look for the total to rise, so bet it ASAP. Just the Over here.

Grab the Falcons now -- anything less than a field goal is a bargain! Everyone is talking about the impact of Atlanta losing Kyle Shanahan, but the talent has only gotten stronger offensively, and the defense is better too. I was on the Bears last week when they hosted Atlanta, and we cashed, but now is the time to jump back on the Falcons after a so-so performance.

These teams met in last year's NFC title game, the Falcons winning 44-21 and covering easily as 6.5-point home favorites. Sunday night's rematch in Atlanta has the Falcons favored by under a field goal, though probably not for long. We're getting value in this line because Green Bay knocked off a powerhouse in Week 1 while Atlanta scraped by against an also-ran. A closer look at the Packers' win over Seattle shows Green Bay was quite fortunate. Look for the Falcons to show their offense is still lethal and their defense has improved. Lay it.

Grab this line at -2.5 before it moves. While the Falcons didn't blow out the Bears in Week 1 as many expected, they were able to stave off a potential Super Bowl hangover and win in a tough spot. Their offense will be much better at home against the Packers, whose defense should be exposed after annihilating a terrible Seattle line in Week 1. The Falcons are good enough defensively that this shouldn't turn into a shootout in the second half if they have the lead.