The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy. For more information on how The Conference Board collects and uses personal data, please visit our privacy policy. By continuing to use this Site or by clicking "OK", you consent to the use of cookies.
Detailed information on the use of cookies on this site is provided in our cookie policy and our privacy policy.

UK

Press Release Archive

Released: Tuesday, August 10, 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.5 percent in June to 103.0 (2004=100), following gains of 0.2 percent in May and 0.7 percent in April. Four of the seven components made positive contributions to the index in June.

Said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe: “The slight pick up in the LEI for the United Kingdom suggests that the recovery will continue. However, the positive contributions among the leading indicators have become less widespread recently, signaling slowing momentum. The deterioration of consumer confidence, particularly with regard to the labor market, could exacerbate the impact of deficit reduction measures and, if sustained, will add an additional drag to growth in 2011.”

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. has been rising for more than a year now, though its six-month growth rate has moderated in recent months. At the same time, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index®(CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, increased by 0.1 percent in June, after increasing by 0.3 percent in May and 0.3 percent in April. The index now stands at 103.1 (2004 = 100).

The Conference Board LEI for the U.K. aggregates seven economic indicators that measure activity in the U.K., each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. include:

Order Book Volume (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Volume of Expected Output (source: Confederation of British Industry)

Consumer Confidence Indicator (source: European Commission)

FTSE All-Share Index (source: FTSE Group)

Yield Spread (source: Bank of England)

Productivity, Whole Economy (Office for National Statistics)

Total Gross Operating Surplus of Corporations (Office for National Statistics)

Plotted back to 1970, this index has successfully signaled turning points in the U.K. business cycles. The Conference Board currently produces leading economic indexes for the Euro Area and nine other countries, including Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.S.

The Conference Board is an independent business membershipand research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizationswith the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.

THESE DATA ARE FOR ANALYSIS PURPOSES ONLY. NOT FOR REDISTRIBUTION, PUBLISHING, DATABASING,
OR PUBLIC POSTING WITHOUT EXPRESS WRITTEN PERMISSION.

Working Papers on The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the United States