There are
several scientific debates on climate change and its impacts on man and the
physical environment. The evidence used in these debates has shown that climate
change is a global issue and that one small attempt may not significantly curb
its extreme events and their impacts. The majority of the evidence used is,
therefore, based on projections from climate change models. However, climate
change models and scenarios for West Africa have some challenges. For example,
while some models of precipitation suggest increases, some predict decreases
and other studies, such as a recent report from IPCC, reveal uncertainty about
future rainfall patterns. Another set of debates on climate change are those around adaptation
amongst rural people, especially smallholder farmers in Africa. Key issues around
climate variability/change impacts, awareness and adaptations are not only
restricted to climate scientists, but also a big threat facing rural farmers.
Some scientists, however, notice that local farmers’ knowledge of climate
change is insufficient for rigorous evaluation of planned adaptation.

A local
livestock farmer taken during the field work

Based on
this assumption, my CIRCLE-funded research set out with the main objective of
testing whether farmers’ perceptions of climate change/variability are
consistent with scientific analysis. Using ethnographic and meteorological
analysis, the study aims to compare the climate change perceptions of both crop
and livestock farmers with historical meteorological analysis. The field work
is centered on three research questions: (1) has rainfall and temperature varied/changed
in the study area over the past three decades?; (2) to what extent do rural
farmers in Southwestern Nigeria perceive changes in climate?; and (3) how do
rural farmers’ perceptions of climate change compare with the trends from
historical climatic data? The field work was conducted in Akeredolu, Alaguntan,
Faforiji, Igboho,Igbope,Ilora, Iseyin, Odemuyiwa Kisi and Shaki.

What is
obvious from observations in the field is the close link between climate and
farming activates in the region of study. This is because the majority of
farming practices are rain-fed. During in-depth interviews and focus group
discussions the majority of farmers claimed that they “observe that rain falls
for a short time and the duration is limited compared to the past 30 years”.
The majority of the farmers had experienced prolonged dry spells and the
recurrence of drought.Nearly all the
farmers perceived that the onset of rainfall is much later recently than over
the last 30 years. They had also noticed that rainfall now ceases half way into
the end of the normal wet season months. Most of the farmers claimed that the
overall impacts of climate change on both crop and livestock are estimated to
be highly negative, much more on maize, yam, and rice and unexpectedly high on
cattle, chickens, pigs, sheep and goats.

Photograph taken during interviews and focus group discussions

As yet, we
have little idea of how farmers’ perception of climate change closely mirrors
the climatic trend from the scientific meteorological analysis. The major
objective of the next stage is to test whether farmer’s perceptions of climate
change/variability are consistent with climatic trend analysis. The rural
farmers awareness of climate change, its impacts and their speciﬁc adaptation
measures, will be seen as science-driven assessments for appraising the trend
of rainfall and temperature during rainy and dry season;patterns of onset; and length of rainy season
with their seasonal variability.

Good job Sir. Congrats to Dr Ayanlade. Extension research methodology can really help us to understand issues regarding CC from farmers perspective.Please where can we get the full publication. I need it as a case study for my Credit Seminar for my PhD (Agricultural Extension) here at Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India. I am working on Ethnography studies for Extension Research

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