Storm Season

ISSUE: Forecasters raise predictions - again.

August 11, 2008

Memo to government hurricane forecasters:

Folks, forget the numbers. Don't get into predictions, because people just laugh at them. Spend your time and money and resources stressing preparation, instead of changing your hurricane prediction numbers every five minutes.

That should be the message given to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which last week tried to outdo the world's most famous hurricane prediction team, the ever-changing William Gray and Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University.

NOAA now predicts 14 to 18 named storms, including 7 to 10 hurricanes. This is a boost from its earlier predictions, and helps NOAA keep up with Gray and Klotzbach, who upped their numbers earlier in the week.

What forecast numbers they will come up with next week is anybody's guess.

Again, NOAA, and the public in general, should forget the predictions. More important is to keep hammering away at people that the peak of hurricane season is going to be here soon, and if you haven't made preparations, it's time to do it.

It's also important for forecasters to remind people that they won't always have a week or 10 days to prepare for a storm that builds up off the coast of Africa. Last month's Hurricane Dolly formed off the Yucatan Peninsula before hitting Texas just days later. Storms that form off the southern Gulf Coast, or just to our east in the Atlantic, won't give us a lot of time to stock up on supplies, or get our homes ready. So the time for you to make sure you have supplies, or re-familiarize yourself with your shutters, is now.

Traditionally, from mid-August through September is the peak of the hurricane season. And even with the tropics quiet right now, July was considered abnormally busy. Hence, the changed predictions.

That means if you still have basic preparations to do, don't just sit around and figure you'll have 10 days to prepare once a storm forms thousands of miles away. You might not have that much time - no matter what numbers forecasters might be throwing out this week.

As for the predictions, remember this, too: The total number of storms in a season is irrelevant because all it takes is one hurricane to turn your world upside down.