Primary links

THE TRANSITION TO A NEW SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

By Arthur Dunn

The existing system of global security is of little use to reflect current threats

In the center of Europe, in Ukraine, there is a war in which a weak truce reached, Crimea became part of Russia. In the Russian leadership nobody remembers about plans to create "modernization alliances" with developed democratic countries. Russia perceives the West not as a partner but as a political and military enemy. US President Barack Obama includes Russia and its policies in the three most serious threats to US security along with the Ebola virus, and international terrorism. But most importantly, the history of Russia is irreversibly divided into two periods: "before sanctions" and "after sanctions." The irreversibility of the situation is that it is pointless to try to integrate Russia into the community of Western democracies. Countries that are trying to publicly "put in a corner" for inappropriate behavior will never be seen as an equal partner. Russian de facto start of the transition to a new system of international relations, the contours of which have defined. Provisions that will be included in the new Military Doctrine, interested primarily in that will determine the military and foreign policy in the near term. In the formation of the Russian policy in this difficult period is particularly important adequacy and accuracy of the estimates of the selection of political action.

While no one knows what will be the new Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, and can only express some assumptions and suggestions regarding its content. Given the increased level of tension in relations between Russia and the West, it can expect more stringent wording regarding Russia's nuclear strategy. But the application of the right to a preemptive nuclear strike in any type of conflict - from local to large scale - would be detrimental to the security interests of Russia itself. Former Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Yuri Baluyevsky, one of the authors of the current doctrine, explained that the updated military doctrine will not be marked with the potential enemy and conditions applying thereon a preventive nuclear strike, as it was in the Doctrine of 2010 ". This information will be kept private nature of military plans.

In modern Russia's foreign policy, there is another imbalance. All the foreign policy horizon artificially shrunk to a single point - the problem of relations between Russia and Ukraine. And everything that happened in the Ukraine and Russia for the vast majority of Russians fit into primitive scheme: US Independence organized, committed "orange revolution", a coup d'etat and do everything in order to oust Russia from the Black Sea Sevastopol and turn into an American military base. In these circumstances, there is a great temptation to make a new Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation-dimensional, "NATO-centric" document, but it would be quite wrong. NATO remains the largest alliance of collective defense. But for Russia today is not the only alliance and, more importantly, is not the most important threat to military security. And the very NATO and the US to the recent events in Ukraine in Russian military adversary not seen.

As for the decision of the NATO summit in Wales for the deployment of military bases in Eastern Europe, it is not aimed at changing the balance of power in Europe. This decision was forced reaction to how perceived in Eastern Europe Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Their leaders have always believed that the most reliable insurance policy to protect them against a repetition "Crimean" scenario at home, it would be the constant presence of at least a dozen American soldiers. The planned establishment of bases in five countries militarily quite significantly.

Five bases to be located only 3 thousand. People. This step is symbolic. It reaffirms US commitment to fulfill obligations to protect allies in case of need.

But it remains unclear how the new military doctrine reflects the attitude of Russia to a new and more serious threat of a terrorist organization "Islamic state". This threat of transboundary and common to Europe, USA, Russia and some Middle East countries. The leaders of this terrorist organization has announced plans to establish an Islamic caliphate from "Seville to Bukhara" firmly promised to start a holy war in Chechnya and the Caucasus. So stay away from the fight against this opponent Russia did not succeed.

It is also unclear, for example, on what today's security threats Russia is responsible group of troops deployment in the Arctic, and the establishment of a permanent military base on the New Siberian Islands.

The effectiveness of foreign policy is determined by how successfully solved by political means the challenges ahead. In Russia, the number of foreign policy issues steadily increasing. By threatening environmental hazard added inside. About them recently warned Baluyevskiy: "Attempts to blow up the state through indirect actions were and are very dangerous."

Another important consequence of the deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine due to the termination of cooperation in the military-technical sphere. It is believed that due to the termination of cooperation affected 79 859 Ukrainian and Russian defense enterprises. Ukraine's share in the Russian defense industry is only 3.5%. But in some areas Ukrainian supplies are critical. Ukraine has supplied up to 50% of gas turbine power plants and gearboxes for construction in the Russian warships to 90% of engines for military helicopters. Many Russian military aircraft, such as the combat training of the Yak-130 military transport An-124, are also Ukrainian engines. Repeated attempts to establish production of engines for warships, helicopters and planes yet failed. Russia in 2015-2016 suggests spending on defense over 4% of GDP. This is a very big burden on the economy. In NATO countries, this figure does not exceed 2% of GDP.

It is worth noting that Russia was not the first who opened a "Pandora's box" and took steps that led eventually to the destruction of security system based on the principle of the inviolability of borders. For the first time since 1945 the United States admitted the possibility of changes recognized State border by a foreign military force and recognized the independence of Kosovo. Then followed Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and finally, the Crimea.

Joining the Crimea to Russia and the conflict in the east of Ukraine confirmed that existed decades the international security system is of little use to counter modern challenges. The old rules no longer apply, and the new design is not going to no one.

It is obvious that the old world of international relations will be much more dangerous and much less stable than the former. The system of international relations, the foundations of which were laid in Yalta and Potsdam, is in search of a new point of equilibrium and stability. This is a natural process. But historically new equilibrium determines the result of the great wars, after which the victorious set new boundaries and rules. The specificity of the present moment is that a great war was not. More specifically, there was but cold. And until now, it remains unclear whether it winner.