2010 Weekly Predictions: Week 11

After a great Week 9 of predictions it was back to above average last week. Dallas’ victory over the Giants, Miami’s victory over Tennessee, and Denver’s victory over Kansas City were the biggest surprises to me. New England over Pittsburgh, San Francisco over St. Louis, and Atlanta over Baltimore also hurt. Of course, I’ll take the Bears’ victory over Minnesota any day.

Full predictions will come out later this week. Point spread for Thursday night’s game comes from Vegas.com as of Thursday afternoon.

Last Week: 7-7 Last Week against the spread: 8-6

This Week: 14-2 This Week against the spread: 9-7

Overall: 103-57Overall against the spread: 86-68-5

Chicago Bears (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
They say that short weeks tend to favor the home team, but I’m not so sure that’s the case this week. The Bears are one of the most healthy teams in the league while the Dolphins will be starting a third-string quarterback and a beat-up Jake Long at left tackle. Miami will have to rely on their run game to get offensive production, but the Bears are one of the best run defenses in the league. It could be closer than it should be, but I think the Bears pull it off on the road.Prediction: Chicago 20, Miami 17Actual Score: Chicago 16, Miami 0Spread Pick: Chicago +1 1/2Actual Score: Chicago 16, Miami 0

Buffalo Bills (1-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7)
Buffalo got the monkey off their back last week and picked up their first victory, but I don’t think they’ll go into Cincinnati and make it an encore. I think the Bengals run the ball well to beat the Bills.Prediction: Cincinnati 23, Buffalo 20Actual Score: Buffalo 49, Cincinnati 31Spread Pick: Buffalo +5 1/2Actual Score: Buffalo 49, Cincinnati 31

Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
It’s hard to believe the Raiders are in first place this late in the season, but they’re doing it with their run game, which ranks second in the league. Both teams are banged up, but I give the edge to the home Steelers.Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Oakland 17Actual Score: Pittsburgh 35, Oakland 3Spread Pick: Oakland +7 1/2Actual Score: Pittsburgh 35, Oakland 3

Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
Arizona continues their free fall post-Kurt Warner and are struggling to put points on the board. The Chiefs were hammered last week by the Broncos, but I think they’ll rebound nicely at home this week.Prediction: Kansas City 24, Arizona 14Actual Score: Kansas City 31, Arizona 13Spread Pick: Kansas City -7 1/2Actual Score: Kansas City 31, Arizona 13

Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
You can make a case that both of these teams have put forth some surprising performances this year. The Browns don’t defend the run well and I think that’s where the Jaguars will put them away.Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Cleveland 21Actual Score: Jacksonville 24, Cleveland 20Spread Pick: Jacksonville -2 (would be a push by my prediction)Actual Score: Jacksonville 24, Cleveland 20

Houston Texans (4-5) at New York Jets (7-2)
I’ve lost faith in the Texans after a solid start to their season. If this were a home game for them, I might put more thought into it, but I think the Jets win comfortably here.Prediction: NY Jets 24, Houston 16Actual Score: NY Jets 30, Houston 27Spread Pick: NY Jets -6 1/2Actual Score: NY Jets 30, Houston 27

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-4)
These two teams have both showed flashes of being good and yet also flashes of being bad. The Titans have the better defense and run game and also have home field advantage, which is why I like them in this matchup.Prediction: Tennessee 27, Washington 20Actual Score: Washington 19, Tennessee 16Spread Pick: Tennessee -7 (would be a push by my prediction)Actual Score: Washington 19, Tennessee 16

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-6)
Brett Favre has one last chance to show up his former team and the Vikings generally play well at home. The Vikings likely will also have Sidney Rice back in the lineup. There’s something about the way the Packers have overcome injuries and have still played at a high level that leads me to believe they’ll pull off a close one.Prediction: Green Bay 24, Minnesota 23Actual Score: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 3Spread Pick: Minnesota +3Actual Score: Green Bay 31, Minnesota 3

Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
Baltimore lost a close one on the road last week against Atlanta that they’re still reeling over. The one thing the Panthers almost always have done well is run the football, but I don’t think they have enough juice to upset the Ravens.Prediction: Baltimore 23, Carolina 13Actual Score: Baltimore 37, Carolina 13Spread Pick: Carolina +11Actual Score: Baltimore 37, Carolina 13

Detroit Lions (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
A week ago, I could have circled this game and said the Lions would win. Then I saw what the Cowboys did to the Giants — the supposed “best team in the NFC” last week. I think Dallas has a renewed sense of pride and hunger and will prevail in this one.Prediction: Dallas 24, Detroit 20Actual Score: Dallas 35, Detroit 19Spread Pick: Detroit +6Actual Score: Dallas 35, Detroit 19

Atlanta Falcons (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-5)
The Falcons are one of the best teams in the NFC and have a solid run defense. I like what Sam Bradford has done with the Rams this year, but I think St. Louis is overmatched.Prediction: Atlanta 27, St. Louis 17Actual Score: Atlanta 34, St. Louis 17Spread Pick: Atlanta -3Actual Score: Atlanta 34, St. Louis 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
The 49ers have won three of their last four games and have been playing a bit better defense as of late, but Tampa Bay has been a pleasant surprise this year with their run game and the play of young quarterback Josh Freeman. I like them on the road.Prediction: Tampa Bay 20, San Francisco 17Actual Score: Tampa Bay 21, San Francisco 0Spread Pick: Tampa Bay +3Actual Score: Tampa Bay 21, San Francisco 0

Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-3)
I sort of feel New Orleans has mostly been flying under the radar this year, even as defending champions. I think it could be because their offense isn’t lighting up the scoreboard and is only ranked No. 15 in points scored. Part of that is because Reggie Bush has been out for a while. He may play this week, but even if he doesn’t, I like the Saints at home over the Seahawks.Prediction: New Orleans 27, Seattle 14Actual Score: New Orleans 34, Seattle 19Spread Pick: New Orleans -11 1/2Actual Score: New Orleans 34, Seattle 19

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2)
It’s always a showdown when Peyton Manning’s Colts and Tom Brady’s Patriots face off against one another. I think Manning is the better quarterback but the Patriots probably have a bit better team and have the home field advantage. I think Brady will win this faceoff.Prediction: New England 27, Indianapolis 24Actual Score: New England 31, Indianapolis 28Spread Pick: Indianapolis +4Actual Score: New England 31, Indianapolis 28

New York Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-3)
Kudos to the NFL schedule makers for managing to land some pretty successful and meaningful Sunday night games this year and this may be the best one yet. The Giants, before being upset by the Cowboys last week, were considered to be the class of the NFC. Now the Eagles seem to have taken that role. It’ll be interesting to see what Michael Vick does for an encore, or if the Giants defense can contain him. I like the Eagles at home.Prediction: Philadelphia 24, NY Giants 21Actual Score: Philadelphia 27, NY Giants 17Spread Pick: Philadelphia -3 (would be a push by my prediction)Actual Score: Philadelphia 27, NY Giants 17

Denver Broncos (3-6) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)
Who could have predicted what a lousy matchup this would have been at the beginning of the season? At least, record-wise. These are still two AFC West rivals who always seem to have great games and both of these offenses can air out the ball. I think the Chargers, who have the better defense, will win the game.Prediction: San Diego 27, Denver 23Actual Score: San Diego 35, Denver 14Spread Pick: Denver +9 1/2Actual Score: San Diego 35, Denver 14