Friday, March 6, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on 03/05/15

This is our sixth installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes as we finally turn the calendar to March!With that in mind we also give a breakdown of
each conference that is likely to receive just one bid, examining where, when,
and the format of their conference tournaments.Remember, the format of some of these tournaments is massive & gives
huge edges to teams that finished higher in standings – become familiar with a
tournament’s layout before playing odds on a team to win their conference’s
automatic bid!

Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:

1) Automatic Bid

2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]

3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]

**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI rank shown first
[pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of
performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown second for each team**

Format:
Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Cal State Fullerton is 9th
team in conference that finished in last place & will not
participate).Teams are re-seeded for
semifinals.

Colonial: UNC
Wilmington #138/#138

When:
March 6, 7, 8, 9

Where:
Royal Farms Arena (Baltimore, Maryland)

Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st round followed by Top 6 & 2 winners from
1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going
forward

Conference USA: Old
Dominion #95/#46

When:
March 11, 12, 13, 14

Where:
Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex (Birmingham, Alabama)

Format:
Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Southern Mississippi will not
participate due to self-imposed sanctions; Florida Atlantic, who finished in
last place, will also not participate) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st
round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Horizon: Green Bay
#81/#60

When:
March 6, 7, 10

Where:
1st Round at campus site of higher seed; 2nd Round &
Semifinals at Valparaiso; Championship at campus site of higher seed

Format:
Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Florida A&M will not participate
following finishing in last place) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st
round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Format:
Bottom 2 teams play in 1st Round (Alabama State & Southern are
ineligible) with that winner joining the Top 7 seeds in quarterfinals playing
in straight single elimination tournament going forward

Summit: Oral
Roberts #134/#157

When: March
7, 8, 9, 10

Where: Premier
Center (Sioux Falls, South Dakota)

Format:
Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Western Illinois is 9th
team in conference that finished in last place & will not participate)

Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette
#139/#162

When:
March 12, 13, 14, 15

Where:
Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, Louisiana)

Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st Round (Appalachian State is ineligible; one
more school will also not participate); those 2 winners face seeds #3 & #4
in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to
confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)

West Coast: Gonzaga
#29/#8

Need Wins: BYU #31/#44

WAC: New Mexico
State #158/#114

When:
March 12, 13, 14

Where:
Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Format:
Seven teams take part (Grand Canyon will not participate) with bottom 6
matching up in quarterfinals (#1 seed New Mexico State has bye till semifinals)
followed by straight single elimination tournament going forward

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32

LOOKING GOOD: 20

Currently I project 52
of the 68 bids are
earned.

NEED WINS: 24

As of this moment we have 24 teams battling for those last
16 bids that remain “open”

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 16 open bids this is the way I see it
currently (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within
conference; teams highlighted in yellow are LAST FIVE IN):

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