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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 19 1994
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 200/07. GUIDANCE MODELS BASED ON THE
19/1200Z AVIATION RUN CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW ANTICYCLONIC MOTION
AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE PREVIOUS
FORRECAST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING THE CENTER NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN 48
HOURS. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS.
THERE IS A SHIP LOCATED 150 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z WITH A
45-KNOT ESTIMATED WIND SPEED. NEARBY DATA BOUYS ARE REPORTING ONLY
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BELOW STORM
STRENGTH. GORDON IS KEPT AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS
ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE SHIP REPORT. OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM IS DEVOID
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.
LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 29.5N 75.4W 35 KTS
12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 76.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 21/0000Z 28.1N 77.8W 25 KTS
36HR VT 21/1200Z 28.0N 79.5W 25 KTS
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.0N 81.0W 20 KTS
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