While I don't claim to know or predict the future, I do feel like this whole blogging thing is gonna peak sooner or later. After that it may die off or continue along just fine.

[STREIGHT: Er, this is not much of a prediction. The "peak sooner or later" tells me nothing. The "it may die off or continue along just fine" is an empty statement that provides no new information, nor thoughtful insight.]

But either way I suspect blogging as a "hot thing" can only last so long.

[STREIGHT: Ahem. I hate to repeat myself, but: no news here. Nothing stays in the spotlight for long. And the mass media spotlight usually arrives long after all the real innovation and revolution has passed into the humdrum of everyday existence. So what? Everyone knows that already.]

How long? That's the question.

[STREIGHT: Maybe for you that's the question, but not for me. My question is how are blogs evolving, how are they being used to accomplish goals, how are people enjoying the writing, reading, and commenting? I have no interest in how the mainstream reacts or what the media coverage is like. Not relevant to my mission.]

It seems to me that the advertising bits are falling into place, the tools are beginning to mature, the marketplace of platform and service vendors will be consolidating soon, and well... everything seems to be falling into place.

What's still missing?

Blogging now feels like on-line shopping around the year 2000 or 2001.

Most of us no longer think it's a miracle that it [blogging] works, a new thing, scary, difficult, hard to understand, etc.

[STREIGHT: Most of "us". "Us"? Us who? Us bloggers? Us long time bloggers? Perhaps. But many people, even internet users, are still bewildered by blogs.

My theory is: if they'd just start a blog, and start doing the bloggy routines of reading and commenting at other blogs, falling into flame wars, engage in a bit of blogo-combat, be a real blogger, they'd understand quickly what it's all about.

Instead, their eyes glaze over as they ask endlessly, waiting to be spoon fed, "what is a blog?"]

So I'm starting to wonder what the timeline might look like.

Roughly when do you expect blogging to go from being "the new thing" or "the thing that changes/reinvents X" to just another part of daily life for a bunch of people? ...just like on-line shopping.

[STREIGHT: I'm a blogologist, and I don't care. It's like asking a guy in a bar when people will finally get tired of cold beer and air conditioned taverns. Or asking a book lover when books will be phased out. Not even mildly interesting. You either read, write, and comment on blogs, or you don't. Big deal.]