Burner is looking good, so says a friend …

We love polls, really we do. But in politics just as in love it helps to be a clear-eyed realist, especially when teasing out meaning and motive from numbers.

For proof we direct your attention to a poll of the 8th District contest released by Emily’s List. The poll is indeed good news for Darcy Burner, a novice candidate who has mounted a surprising vigorous campaign against incumbent Republican Dave Reichert. Burner, according to the poll, trails Reichert 44 percent to 43 percent.

But the news is even better, say the sober statisticians from Grove Insight, the group hired by Emily’s List to conduct the poll.

”Burner and Reichert are running neck and neck,” Grove Insight concludes, even though the poll of 400 registered voters in the district has a whooping margin of error of 4.9 percent. ”Burner obtains support of 43 percent of voters, while Reichert garners 44 percent of the vote. Each candidate receives ‘strong support’ from about one-third of voters. Few voters — 13 percent — are still undecided. With the right resources, Burner could successfully beat the incumbent.”

Yes indeed, Reichert is ripe for the picking. The poll points out that President Bush is highly unpopular in the district and that ”despite incumbency, Dave Reichert enters this race from a position of weaknes.”

Perhaps. Other polls, however, aren’t quite as bold. And there this inconvenient truth: the 8th District has never elected a Democrat to Congress.

But Emily’s List has a history of supporting longshot candidates who end up winning. The group backed — and continues to back — Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell.

Emily’s List support of Burner is notable from an outfit directed by hardcore professions worthy of a group named after a philosophy rather than an actual woman. For those interesting in trivia, the EMILY in Emily’s List stands for, Early Money Is Like Yeast.

In that regard, Burner is living proof. She surprised many by raising impressive amounts to mount a serious challege against Reichert, a veteran politician who was King County’s sheriff before moving to Congress. Burner, meanwhile, has no political experience beyond what she learned navigating the complicated world as a Microsoft manager.

Whether or not Dave is right or Emily is correct won’t be known for another six weeks.