Anna Coullinghttp://www.annacoulling.com
The more you learn, the more you earnMon, 05 Dec 2016 12:31:57 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.6.1http://www.annacoulling.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/favicon.pngAnna Coullinghttp://www.annacoulling.com
323218349708Another bad week as gold remains under pressurehttp://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/another-bad-week-as-gold-remains-under-pressure/
http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/another-bad-week-as-gold-remains-under-pressure/#respondMon, 05 Dec 2016 12:31:57 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10932[...]]]>The heavily bearish sentiment for gold continued to remain firmly in place once again last week, as the precious metal continues its stately progress ever lower, following the cataclysmic candle of the 9th November, when ultra high volume confirmed the heavy selling. Since then the price of gold has continued lower, punctuated with minor rallies, with last week’s effort to regain the $1200 per ounce level duly snuffed out and closing the week at $1177.80 per ounce on the daily chart. And with a much vaunted rate hike from the FED now waiting around the corner, the outlook for gold looks bleak. Whilst the daily chart confirms the negative sentiment, it is perhaps the weekly chart which provides further technical evidence which confirms this picture.

First we have the extremely strong resistance overhead in the $1300 per ounce area, and denoted with the blue dotted line. Below this, is our volume point of control, and denoted with the yellow dotted line in the $1260 per ounce area, and adding its own downwards pressure. Next, comes the platform of support at $1225 per ounce which failed to halt the progress lower, and is now yet another area of strong resistance to any recovery. Finally, last week, whilst the candle itself closed as a doji, further potential support was taken out in the $1185 per ounce area, and the only glimmer of hope, is the declining volume associated with the four consecutive down candles. This suggests the heavy selling pressure is waning, and given the indecision of the doji candle, we may see a congestion phase build in due course, with a potential rally higher. Longer term however, the outlook for gold still remains very bearish, and with a low volume node below in the $1160 per ounce area, any move through here will see gold set to test potential support in the $1090 per ounce area, and down to $1060 per ounce into next year.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/another-bad-week-as-gold-remains-under-pressure/feed/010932Caterpillar delivers in bucket loadshttp://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-delivers-in-bucket-loads/
http://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-delivers-in-bucket-loads/#respondTue, 15 Nov 2016 11:55:36 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10918[...]]]>
They say a week is a long time in politics, and as the waters settle following the US presidential election, and relative calm is restored it’s time to revisit Caterpillar which I tipped as a good prospect, whoever won, and indeed this has proved to be the case. With both candidates pledging to spend on major infrastructure projects, Caterpillar was likely to be one stock that would do well, whatever the final result.

At the time I wrote the post, the stock was trading at $82.31, having tested the $90 area, both recently and earlier in the year, and building resistance as a result, and coupled with a strong platform of support below in the $80.50 area.

Post the election, the stock duly jumped on ultra high volume, gapping up on the open and confirming the breakout with strongly bullish sentiment. and moving from the previous close of $84.68, to close the day at $91.20. Since then, the stock has continued to climb higher on excellent volume and closed yesterday’s session at $94.17 having touched an intraday high of $95.50. With the old resistance level now firmly breached and with clear water above, the stock is now well on course to test the $107.12 high of late 2014 in the longer term.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-delivers-in-bucket-loads/feed/010918Gold remains bearish but expect a bouncehttp://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/gold-remains-bearish-but-expect-a-bounce/
http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/gold-remains-bearish-but-expect-a-bounce/#respondTue, 15 Nov 2016 11:53:43 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10924[...]]]>For gold bugs it has been another tumultous week, with the price of gold collapsing as Donald Trump marched into the White House, sweeping all before him and confounding the polls once more. For pollsters it was another humiliating event as they added to their incorrect forecasts for Brexit and for the Scottish referendum. The weekly chart for gold perhaps best describes the price action, with the initial surge higher, and promising much, then crushed, as the US dollar moved strongly higher along with equity markets, with the candle duly closing with a very deep wick to the upper body on ultra high volume.

However, it is interesing to note two aspects of the chart. First, the weekly candle has triggered the volatility indicator based on average true range, which heralds the prospect of consolidation in the short term. So whilst the market is indeed heavily bearish, it will be no surprise to see price consolidate and move sideways. Second, we are now testing some potential key support areas, with the first of these at $1213 per ounce already having come into play in yesterday’s trading session. This was also the level we saw tested back in Mid May, which duly held as gold recovered from this region to test the $1380 per ounce level two months later. So potentially a strong platform of support is developing here. Above in the $1255 per ounce area we have the volume point of control, as denoted with the yellow dashed line, as volume continue to build in this region, and confirming the prospect of further consolidation in the short term.

Moving to the monthly chart, the levels here are once again extremely well defined, with the strong ceiling of resistance in the $1350 per ounce area capping the rally, the volume point of control just below $1300 per ounce, and then potential support awiating at a much lower level in the $1150 per ounce area. Indeed the last of these now looks increasingly like the next significant level to be tested, and despite the short term rally which is likely to follow from last weeks price action, longer term it’s not particularly good news for gold, with the potential for the precious metal ultimately to test $1070 per ounce next year.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/gold-remains-bearish-but-expect-a-bounce/feed/010924Caterpillar likely to win, whoever gets inhttp://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-likely-to-win-whoever-gets-in/
http://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-likely-to-win-whoever-gets-in/#respondMon, 07 Nov 2016 16:00:42 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10907[...]]]>Whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump is the next incumbant of the White House, there are some stocks for whom the outcome may be of little interest given that both candidates have made heavy commitments to public spending, should they win the election.

One such stock which is likley to benefit, whoever wins, and indeed is often considered as a bellweather of the economy is Caterpillar (CAT). That said, the last few years have not been easy ones, and in 2015 the company announced huge cuts in its workforce, as sales and revenues declined, with a $1.5 billion cost cutting program coupled with reducing the workforce by 10,000 worldwide.

This was as a result of four years of falling sales, the first time in the company’s ninety year history, and reflected on the daily price chart with the share price duly falling from a high of $107.12 in late 2014, to a low of $56.36 in January 2016. Since then, the share price has recovered steadily, moving higher with a classical rounded top to each higher high, before culminating in the current pause which has seen the price test strong resistance in the $89 area in October.

The recent nervousness for US equities, which has seen nine straight days of losses, has also spilled over into blue chips stocks with Caterpillar reflecting the current short term bearish picture. However, with both candidates committing to a dramatic increase in major projects, this should be good news for companies such as Caterpillar, and if US equities bounce higher as expected, then a double whammy catalyst will help to propel prices through the $89 resistance area.

Once this area is breached, a solid platform of support will then be in place to help push the stock price higher, and back to test the $105 high of late 2014 in the longer term. Indeed in last week’s price action we are already starting to see the first signs, with a decline in the selling volumes, and with a wick to the underside of last week’s candle, and signalling a return of buying on solid volumes, as the markets prepare for this week’s main event.

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/stock-trader-tips/caterpillar-likely-to-win-whoever-gets-in/feed/010907Oil remains under pressure despite OPEC reassuranceshttp://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-remains-under-pressure-despite-opec-reassurances/
http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-remains-under-pressure-despite-opec-reassurances/#respondMon, 07 Nov 2016 15:21:28 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10896[...]]]>As oil prices continue to fall, all eyes are once again focused on OPEC and the so called ‘Algiers accord’ of last month, much vaunted as the solution to the problems of oversupply. Since then markets have remained sceptical, and the statement from the Secretary General of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo yesterday, seems to have done little to pause this bearish sentiment. In the statement he said ‘We as OPEC remain committed to the Algiers accord that we put together. All OPEC 14 we remain committed to the implementation.We have no price objectives and god willing, with the implementation of the Algiers accord and cooperation of the non-OPEC member countries, the rebalancing process will be brought forward in 2017. In a closing statement he then went on to say that Russia was on board but would not disclose any of the details.

The next OPEC meeting is scheduled for the 25th November, followed by a meeting with non OPEC members on the 28th November and finally on the 30th November where OPEC oil ministers will meet to discuss and agree proposals from these meetings. All this is against the backdrop outlined in my post last month of declining demand for oil into 2017, with consumption likely to fall from the current 1.8 million barrels per day to closer to 1.2 million barrels per day, with the concensus view, that the current proposed cuts in supply, even if they are agreed and implemented, is seen as too little too late. And waiting in the wings we have the US election, with the potential prospect of a stronger dollar should Hilary Clinton triumph which will do little to help beleaguered oil prices at present.

From a technical perspective the various key levels are once again clearly defined on the daily chart. Stiff resistance at $52 per barrel capped the rally of October. The floor of potential support was then taken out in early November as oil price moved swiftly through the $49 per barrel area, before plunging to test much deeper support in the $43.50 per barrel area, which to date has held firm with a minor bounce in early trading this morning following the comments from OPEC. It is also interesting to note the volume point of control has also moved lower and down from the $47.50 per barrel region of two weeks ago, and confirming the current bearish sentiment. Selling pressure remains high as confirmed with the associated volume of the last two weeks, but with support now building and with the VPOC in attendance, we are likely to see a congestion phase build as the US election and the FED take centre stage, with the prospect of a deeper move to the $41 per barrel area in the longer term.

This very bearish tone for commodities is also reflected on the CRB index, which failed to break above the 191 area before reversing lower to test the 182 support area, and currently trading at 182.50. That said, its not all bad news for commodities with coking coal, copper and nickel all showing some stellar gains.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-remains-under-pressure-despite-opec-reassurances/feed/010896Patience…patience for the Aussie dollarhttp://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/patience-patience-for-the-aussie-dollar/
http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/patience-patience-for-the-aussie-dollar/#respondMon, 31 Oct 2016 11:05:17 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10890[...]]]>For any longer term trend traders across the primary majors, these are testing times, not testing from a trading perspective, but testing one of the hardest personality traits we have to develop as traders, namely that of patience. As people and indeed as traders, we all like to be doing…something.. but congestion phases, whether on a intraday basis or longer term are those periods of price action when patience can be tested, and this is certainly the case on the daily and weekly charts at present.

If we start with the 6A futures contract for the Aussie dollar and the weekly timeframe, this really encapsulates the current technical picture with the constant testing and retesting of the 0.7700 area and defined with the deep area of resistance denoted with the red dashed line. This is an area which has been tested on nine previous occasions, with the pair failing to make any progress higher, and given the number of candle with deep wicks to the upper body would suggest it is not a question of if the pair develops a new bearish trend, but when. Many of these candles are punctuated with yellow pivots, with the volume point of control firmly anchored in the 0.7600 area (yellow dashed line) defining the maximum transacted volumes building in this area.

Moving to the linear price and volume relationship, the heavy selling of the mid September candle is self evident with ultra high volume and a deep wick to the upper body and duly topped off with a pivot high. This price action has been repeated in the last two weeks, albeit on lower volume.

To the downside, the floor of potential support is equally well defined with the blue dashed line of the accumulation and distribution indicator defining this level at 0.7400. This too has been tested, but remains intact for the time being.

Longer term, the technical outlook for the pair is building to a bearish breakdown, and once the 0.7400 area is taken out, this is likely to be followed with a move through the minor support at 0.7100 with a deeper move then in prospect towards the 0.6750 floor last tested in January. And all that will be required to take advantage is simple:- patience, patience and more patience. The key level on any such move is the 0.7400 floor of support and if this is breached the low volume node below offers little meaningful support with price action likely to slice through this area fast with the trend picking up momentum in the deeper move South.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/patience-patience-for-the-aussie-dollar/feed/010890Oil demand likely to fall in 2017 as prices strugglehttp://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-demand-likely-to-fall-in-2017-as-prices-struggle/
http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-demand-likely-to-fall-in-2017-as-prices-struggle/#respondTue, 25 Oct 2016 10:56:56 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10883[...]]]>Crude oil, like many other commodities and markets are present, continues to remain rangebound with the bullish momentum of earlier in the month now waning. From a technical perspective the ceiling of resistance is extremely well defined at precisely $52 per barrel for the WTI contract and denoted with the blue dashed line on the daily chart. This was the price level that capped the strong move higher on the 10th of the month, with the wide spread up candle touching an intraday high of $52.03 per barrel before closing the session and the day at $51.78 per barrel. This level was duly tested again the following day, as the congestion phase took hold, and now neatly defined with pivot highs and lows to the ceiling and floor, with support building in the $49.50 per barrel level. Should the current ceiling of resistance be breached then $54.50 per barrel is the next logical area of price resistance, but for any sustained move higher volumes will need to pick up dramatically from those at present which remain average for the time being.

Against the technical picture, we have the fundamental aspects to consider, with over supply, weak economics, continued US dollar strength and OPEC supply controls all adding their own weight to the price chart. Indeed at the IEA conference currently being held in Singapore, the executive director, Fatih Birol stated that old demand was likely to weaken further, with global demand only rising by 1.2 million barrels per day, against the current 1.8 million barrels per day for 2016.

The only glimmer of hope comes from China which continues to increase consumption but much against trends for markets elsewhere, but despite this Fatih Birol’s view is that the supply demand dynamic would not be re-established until well into 2017. He also went on to say that in his opinion, OPEC’s planned cuts in supply were unlikely to have much effect in terms as propping up the price of oil for member states, as this would simply drive production higher from other regions in the world, coupled with increased production from the alternative energy suppliers. Altogether a pessimistic outlook longer term for the price of oil, and given the technical picture, $55 per barrel would seem to be the absolute top for the time being, and if the resistance region at $52 per barrel continues to build strongly, then a retracement back to $49.50 per barrel then seems likely with a longer term move to re-engage with the volume point of control in the $47.50 per barrel area in due course.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/oil-demand-likely-to-fall-in-2017-as-prices-struggle/feed/010883US dollar index now approaching key levels on weekly charthttp://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/us-dollar-index-now-approaching-key-levels-on-weekly-chart/
http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/us-dollar-index-now-approaching-key-levels-on-weekly-chart/#respondTue, 25 Oct 2016 09:45:39 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10876[...]]]>Ahead of Friday’s advance GDP for the US markets, its time to take a longer term look at the US dollar index from a technical perspective based on the weekly chart, as the index once again approaches some key resistance levels.

In the last few weeks, the US dollar has finally found some traction following the malaise of the summer months which saw the index test the 11,700 area on two occasions, before moving higher to consolidate in the 11,900 to 21,100 region during August and September. Price action in October finally injected some momentum, propelling the dollar index through the 12,100 and on higher to currently trade at 12,199 at the time of writing as we now approach the first key resistance area, denoted with the light blue dotted line at 12210. This was level that presented a stiff barrier to progress higher for the index back in late 2015 and early 2016, and from which developed the second area of resistance in late January denoted with the dark blue dashed line in the 12,300 area.

What is perhaps most revealing is the extent and depth of the current congestion phase for the index, which has been contained for eighteen months, with the floor of support firmly in place in the 11,700 region and the ceiling now in sight once again. Much of course will depend on the fundamental drivers for the USD, including the US election. But against the political background, we also have the GDP data on Friday, followed by the next Fed meeting in Novemeber as the sands of time ebb ever faster for a rate hike with December once again now looking more likely. And if the FED due deliver a rate hike, this may be the catalyst for the breach of these two key resistance levels which now await in the 12,200 and 12,300 areas. If these are finally taken out, the bullish trend for the US dollar will then continue with a very strong platform of support firly in place.

For the DXY it is a similar picture with the two key levels being those at 99.75 and a higher level at 100.60, and should the dollar index turn 100 once again, then this too will signal further bullish momentum for the dollar, and adding to the bullish picture for the DXY is the increase in net speculative longs at the CFTC which last Friday stood 60,566 contracts, up over 26k since the beginning of October.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/us-dollar-index-now-approaching-key-levels-on-weekly-chart/feed/010876The EUR/USD may be finding some supporthttp://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/the-eurusd-may-be-finding-some-support/
http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/the-eurusd-may-be-finding-some-support/#respondWed, 19 Oct 2016 12:12:57 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10871[...]]]>It’s been another lacklustre week for the euro dollar as bearish sentiment continues to weigh heavily on the pair following the firm breakaway from the volume point of control on the daily chart which sent the pair tumbling through the 1.1100 area.

Last Friday’s price action gave a repeat performance taking the pair lower once again, before Monday’s very weak attempt to rally provided some hope for euro bulls with the follow through on Tuesday running into resistance in the 1.1030 area before capitulating and closing lower on the day at 1.0979. Once again in early trading we have seen the pair attempt to rise, only for the rally to be snuffed out with a test of the platform of support in the 1.0950 area now on the horizon. This was the level that duly provided support to the pair back in July following the Brexit vote, with the pair rallying to 1.1350 in due course. For any such repeat, much will depend on the FOMC, and should they fail to deliver which now seems increasingly likely, this may be the catalyst for the beleaguered euro, and for a rally in the pair with some momentum.

It is also interesting to note the associated volumes with the current move lower, as not only are they relatively low, but also falling in a falling market, and suggesting the current bearish phase may well be reaching a conclusion.

From a fundamental perspective tomorrow sees the ECB interest rate decision, and press conference from Mario Draghi which will no inject a degree of volatility to the eurodollar, and also determine whether the current support level will indeed hold. Moreover, last week also saw an increase in the net short positions at the CFTC to 93,472 contracts, which is by no means an extreme for eurodollar where in 2015 net short positions reached over 200k contracts.

By Anna Coulling

]]>http://www.annacoulling.com/forex-trading/the-eurusd-may-be-finding-some-support/feed/010871Gold and silver regroup but remain bearishhttp://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/gold-and-silver-regroup-but-remain-bearish/
http://www.annacoulling.com/commodities/gold-and-silver-regroup-but-remain-bearish/#commentsMon, 17 Oct 2016 09:36:09 +0000http://www.annacoulling.com/?p=10862[...]]]>Last week was one of consolidation and regrouping for both gold and silver, following the calamitous falls of the previous week which finally injected some momentum into both precious metals following the extended sideways price action of the summer months. For silver, price has been contained in a very narrow range, with the ceiling of resistance defined with the red dotted line $17.75 per ounce, and the floor of support now building in the $17.20 per ounce area and denoted with the blue dotted line.

To date we have also seen a pivot low and pivot high delivered at these levels and further confirming the boundaries of the current congestion channel. Once again, support is now key, and should the $17.20 per ounce level be breached, the price of silver will then continue lower, and down to test the further potential support regions below in the $16.60 per ounce area, and $16.40 per ounce respectively. Overall sentient remains bearish with the trend monitor remaining bright red, and with the volume point of control adding additional downwards pressure from the $20 per ounce level.

The technical picture for gold is similar. The break below $1308 per ounce was the trigger, with gold prices now consolidating between $1265 per ounce to the upside and $1244 per ounce to the downside, and as for silver building a corridor of price action. Here too the volume point of control is adding further downwards pressure from the $1340 per ounce area, and should the current floor of support be breached, then gold looks likely to return to test the $1210 per ounce region in due course.

The weekly COT data continues to confirm the current picture for both gold and silver, with managed net longs for the precious metal falling from 244,662 to 201,353 with a consequent rise in net shorts from 39,486 to 47,577. For silver the managed net longs have fallen from 89,114 to 72,710 with shorts increasing from 22,695 to 25,018.