The personal blog of Peter Lee a.k.a. "China Hand"... Life is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel, and an open book to those who read. You are welcome to contact China Matters at the address chinamatters --a-- prlee.org or follow me on twitter @chinahand.

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Syria: Is this country headed straight to hell or what?

Back in February I wrote for Asia Times about the Chinese diplomatic
initiative on Syria, which is now largely represented by the Annan peace
plan. At the time, I wrote China’s plan
had a chance, albeit slim, because, for all the brave talk emanating from the
Gulf, Turkey, the EU, and the West nobody seemed particularly eager to step up
and destroy the Assad regime.

Simply imploding the
Assad regime to spite Iran would appear to be easy, but has not happened.

Turkey is already providing safe havens for the Free Syrian Army, but
apparently has not unleashed it. Western Iraq is aboil with doctrinaire Sunni
militants happy to stick it to the Alawite regime, and Qatar has allegedly
already laid the groundwork for underemployed Libyan militants to find
profitable occupation fighting alongside the opposition in Syria, but utter
bloody chaos has yet to erupt.

The fact that Aleppo and Damascus have only been ravaged by two car bombs is
perhaps a sign of Wahabbist restraint, and may have been taken by the PRC as a
sign that the Gulf Cooperation Council's commitment to overthrowing Assad is
not absolute.

Of course, recently Damascus was ravaged by two 1000 kg car
bombs and a similar attack in Aleppo was averted by Syrian government security.

Syrian
rebels battling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad have begun receiving
significantly more and better weapons in recent weeks, an effort paid for by
Persian Gulf nations and coordinated in part by the United States, according to
opposition activists and U.S. and foreign officials.

…

Material is being stockpiled in Damascus, in Idlib near the
Turkish border and in Zabadani on the Lebanese border. Opposition activists who
two months ago said the rebels were running out of ammunition said this week
that the flow of weapons — most still bought on the black market in neighboring
countries or from elements of the Syrian military — has significantly increased
after a decision by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other gulf states to provide
millions of dollars in funding each month.

Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood also said it has opened its own supply
channel to the rebels, using resources from wealthy private individuals and
money from gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, said Mulham al-Drobi,
a member of the Brotherhood’s executive committee.

The new supplies reversed months of setbacks for the rebels that
forced them to withdraw from their stronghold in the Baba Amr neighborhood of
Homs and many other areas in Idlib and elsewhere.

The effect of the new arms appeared evident in Monday’s clash
between opposition and government forces over control of the rebel-held city of
Rastan, near Homs. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said
rebel forces who overran a government base had killed 23 Syrian soldiers

Helluva way to run a cease-fire.

The simplest explanation is that the United States and the Gulf
nations have decided to drive a stake into the heart of the shaky ceasefire and
let ‘er rip in Syria, consequences be damned.

This would fit in with the near-universal desire to get rid of
Assad, while having the collateral benefit of administering a ostentatious
public rebuke to China’s efforts to drive the Middle Eastern political process
in ways that don’t suit the United States and Saudi Arabia.

That’s the most likely explanation.

However, the Obama administration’s queasiness concerning
uncontrolled regime collapse in Syria driven by hardened Islamist fighters and
the Muslim Brotherhood instead of cuddly, pro-Western liberal intellectuals
seems to have become more overt since the car bombings in Damascus.

So I wonder if this article is something in the nature of a push
by Saudi Arabia to reinforce the narrative of inevitable Syrian Armageddon fueled
by aid from the Gulf, and thereby encourage the Obama administration to give up
on the peace process, indeed any ideas of a managed process, and let the
insurrection take its course…and of course, take on the responsibility for
dealing with Syria, or what’s left of it, once Assad is gone.

To me, the takeaway paragraphs were:

Officials in the
region said that Turkey’s main concern is where the United States stands, and
whether it and others will support armed protection for a safe zone along the
border or back other options that have been discussed.

…

The Sunni-led gulf states, which would
see the fall of Assad as a blow against Shiite Iran, would welcome such
assistance, but they would like a more formal approach. One gulf official
described the Obama administration’s gradual evolution from an initial refusal
to consider any action outside the political realm to a current position
falling “between ‘here’s what we need to do’ and ‘we’re doing it.’”“Various people are hoping that the
U.S. will step up its efforts to undermine or confront the Syrian regime,” the
gulf official said. “We want them to get rid” of Assad.

Not exactly a profile in courage by the counter-revolutionary
kings, sheiks, and emirs of the Arabian peninsula.

I’m pretty sure that the Gulf states could bring down Assad by
themselves, albeit through proxies, at the cost of a few million dollars.

So the issue here is mainly of GCC gutlessness and an attempt to
get America on the hook for dealing with the Syria mess once Assad is in exile
in Russia, hanging from a lamp post or whatever.

The bottom line is, the future of Syria—at least
how its political process and insurrection play out over the next few months—is
in the hands of President Obama.