NFC championship preview: San Francisco at Atlanta

By Bobby Bonett, Digital First Media

Friday, January 18, 2013

The San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1 during the regular season) take on the Atlanta Falcons (13-3) in the AFC Championship game. Read a preview of the match-up including broadcast information, key players and an expert prediction.

GAMEDAY DETAILSTime and location

Sunday, Jan. 20, 3 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Ga.

BROADCAST SCHEDULETV: FOXOnline: NFL Audio Pass

Radio: Sirius XM Channels 92 and 86, Dial Global Sports

BETTING LINEThe 49ers are favored by 3.5 points via OddsShark.com. The over/under for the game is 49 points.

HOW THEY GOT HEREAtlanta Falcons

Seconds after it looked like the Falcons’ season had ended at the hands of Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks, quarterback Matt Ryan led Atlanta down the field to kick a stunning 49-yard game-winning field goal in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch scored on a two-yard rush with 31 seconds left in the game that gave Seattle the lead, 28-27. On the ensuing drive, Ryan responded by hitting Harry Douglas for a 22-yard completion, then Tony Gonzalez for a 19-yard completion, setting Atlanta up at the Seattle 31-yard line. Matt Bryant proceeded to drill the game-winning field goal with eight seconds left, as the Falcons advanced past the Seahawks in the divisional round, 30-28.

San Francisco 49ersPregame talk surrounded Aaron Rodgers and his chance to prove that the 49ers had, in fact, made a mistake by not drafting him in 2005. Postgame talk surrounded Colin Kaepernick and his historic playoff performance. In just his second postseason game, the Niners’ second-year quarterback threw for 263 yards and two touchdowns, and rushed for 181 yards and another two touchdowns, leading San Francisco to a 45-31 win over Green Bay. The 181 rushing yards by Kaepernick were a quarterback record, breaking Michael Vick’s mark of 173 rushing yards set during the 2002 regular season.

RECENT HISTORYThe Falcons and 49ers haven’t met since the 2010 NFL regular season. In the last meeting, Matt Ryan led the Falcons back from a 14-0 deficit to top Alex Smith and the 49ers, 16-14. Ryan passed for 273 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while Smith threw for 188 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

KEY MATCH-UPColin Kaepernick vs. Falcons linebackers

Following his team’s loss to the 49ers, Packers linebacker A.J. Hawk told reporters, “We just didn’t have an answer .” If the Falcons want to advance to the Super Bowl, they’re going to need their linebackers to find that answer.

Because Kaepernick combines great speed -- he was arguably the fastest player on the field when San Francisco was on offense -- with a strong arm, opposing defensive backs are often forced downfield in coverage. Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss are both deep threats, meaning on most passing plays, at least three defensive backs are dedicated to coverage more than 20 yards down field. What that means for Atlanta’s defensive game plan is that the responsibility of keeping Kaepernick in the pocket and limiting his yardage when he decides to run will be on the Falcons’ linebackers.

In order for Atlanta to slow the 49ers’ quarterback, one key will be the health of linebacker John Abraham. Arguably the most integral part of the Falcons’ defense, Abraham is dealing with a sprained ankle. While he is expected to play, his mobility may be limited, and he’ll be at risk of re-aggravating the injury.

If San Francisco can again run the option effectively, and Kaepernick can pick his spots to run on designed passing plays, another game of 400 total yards for the second-year quarterback isn’t out of the question. And if Kaepernick puts up numbers like that, the 49ers will be punching a ticket to the Super Bowl. It will be on Atlanta’s linebackers to end the Falcons’ postseason woes and get Matt Ryan to his first Super Bowl.

Many factors will influence the outcome, beginning with the effectiveness of three aching players: 49ers offensive tackle Joe Staley and defensive tackle Justin Smith, and Falcons defensive end John Abraham. But the game will be decided by the better defense, and that belongs to San Francisco – even without a fully productive Smith manning the interior line. The 49ers will force Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan to perform under constant pressure. I don’t think he will. Meanwhile, 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick is a dual threat – running and throwing – with more options than the Falcons can contain. San Francisco 31, Atlanta 21 -- Monte Poole, Bay Area News Group