'11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

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Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Why are we using "record since before the all-star break" to equal "late-season surge"? The records being used don't match the intent of the thread.

It matches the title of the thread. It also gives us the largest sample, comparing Vogel's entire tenure to the corresponding dates for Jimmy. Would you rather we compared their overall win percentages, instead?

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Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Didn't I read somewhere that Frank consults Larry quite a bit about coaching the team. I think it's great he utilizes a mentor, but it leads to the question of how many of the decisions are his alone. I really like what Frank has done, but I'd feel better about him if I knew for sure he was the one with the original ideas for the changes that have been made.

Not to mention the next coach might not play the young'ns like Vogel has. I like how many players he uses instead of an 7-8 player rotation of many coaches.

DC in particular not having a new coach for once in his career would benefit HUGELY from Vogel being retained.

"Nobody wants to play against Tyler Hansbrough NO BODY!" ~ Frank Vogel

"And David put his hand in the bag and took out a stone and slung it. And it struck the Philistine on the head and he fell to the ground. Amen. "
Want your own "Just Say No to Kamen" from @mkroeger pic? http://twitpic.com/a3hmca

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

It matches the title of the thread. It also gives us the largest sample, comparing Vogel's entire tenure to the corresponding dates for Jimmy. Would you rather we compared their overall win percentages, instead?

I thought the intent, from the first post, was to say this wasn't the same as the late season surges under JOB. If that is the comparison, we need to compare the "late season" numbers, not the entire numbers.

BillS

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

I thoroughly believe that both Vogel and JOB want(ed) to win. The difference is that Vogel is willing to use any resources available to do that, and notice and comment when that change did not work.

As connected fans we want to know what is going on. Do we have the right to know everything...NO. I don't want to know about Lance's late night reardezvous. But if it is conduct to the vitality of the team I want to know what is going on.

I wish we could be around the team as much as the staff. I think then we would realize how hard it is to win in the league. When we make the playoffs, enjoy it. Cause we might not get back for a long time. It is not a given that we will be contenders soon.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Another thing that is fair to take into account is that Jim would collect a lot of wins at the end of the year by beating teams that were in "tanking mode", this year because of the lockout and the weak draft teams are not tanking making it harder for the Pacers to win.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

After long consideration about this which included both prayer and meditation as well as seeking out statistical experts from M.I.T. (for those who can not live without some form of statistic being studied) I have come to one conclusion.

Jim O'Brien is the devil.

Derrick McKey can finally feel sanctified.

Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Another thing that is fair to take into account is that Jim would collect a lot of wins at the end of the year by beating teams that were in "tanking mode", this year because of the lockout and the weak draft teams are not tanking making it harder for the Pacers to win.

So wait, this year is the only year that teams aren't tanking? Wow that is conveniant. I think that is imposible to prove and document. I much better argument in Frank's favor is simply to say these wins are leading to the playoffs where as last years 10-4 were after the pacers were eliminated.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

So wait, this year is the only year that teams aren't tanking? Wow that is conveniant. I think that is imposible to prove and document. I much better argument in Frank's favor is simply to say these wins are leading to the playoffs where as last years 10-4 were after the pacers were eliminated.

Yeah, it actually is convenient. This is not a tank-worthy draft, so teams aren't doing it as much. There is not prize to tank for this season. It might be impossible to prove in a court of law, but I think most people would agree that there is very little tanking going on this year, if any.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

I consider myself rational and while I won't say that O'Brien is better than Vogel, I certainly won't say that Vogel is better than O'Brien. Way, way way too soon to draw any hard conclusions on Vogel. I'll say he's done a nice job through 33 games. He's hasn't coached through a training camp, through preseason games, through the process when the players begin to get sick of hearing you.

Jim O'Brien has coached about 7 NBA seasons, has goten his team to game 6 of the ECF.

I think for anyone to conclude that Vogel is a better coach than O'Brien is irrational. Is Vogel a better coach for this Pacers team right now? Of course, but a better coach overall - get back with me after Vogel has coached two or three full seasons.

Edit: I'm not sure it is entirely fair to include the honeymoon period - the first 8-10 games Vogel coached this team. Any coach would have had a honeymoon period taking over for JOB.

Pacers did end the season last year 10-4, actually they were 10-2 until the lost their last two games. The schdule to end the year last year was easy, but Vogel's first 10 games schedule was easy. I suppose my point is, I'm not convinced that Vogel is the answer and that is the only question we need to be concerned about. O'Brien is gone, not coming back, so he's not the issue anymore.

Okay, okay, allow me to qualify my previous statement. No rational person can argue that at this time, for this team, that Vogel is not a better option as head coach than Jim O'Brien.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

So wait, this year is the only year that teams aren't tanking? Wow that is conveniant. I think that is imposible to prove and document. I much better argument in Frank's favor is simply to say these wins are leading to the playoffs where as last years 10-4 were after the pacers were eliminated.

I know that there is no way to prove it, but like I said before the NBA lockout and this years draft been one of the worse in the last 10 years is a reason why teams are not tanking, I don't know if you pay attention to the mock drafts or anything like that, but it looks like the number one pick is going to be anybody's guess.

Last year teams were tanking for Wall, the year before Blake and the year before that one Rose, in this years draft everybody in the top ten is pretty much equal.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

It's been clear to me that you had the ring picked out and were all set to propose to Jim when the time was right for years now.

BTW, along these lines I do think we are seeing the old Buck returning slowly as the JOB battles start to slip away. I think fighting those battles started to affect you.

I guess that's true for me to if you bring up Josh, Rush or Price to be fair.

But you still hung onto some pretty extreme defenses of JOB no matter what the reason.

A lot of people stick their heels in the ground for players/coaches. You do it with Josh, I do it with AJ and to a lesser extent DC (irony right there), and Buck...for whatever strange reason, did it for JOB.

As for Frank, I like Frank a lot. I like that he utilizes every resource he has. I like that he does an excellent job of picking up good ideas from other coaches. He has, imo, a lot of potential as a coach.

And I like him for this team. However, I agree that the Pacers should interview everyone, talk to the players that are coming back to see what they want. And decide. But I'd give Frank the first interview.

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Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Can we just have a thread for UncleBuck to go on and on about how Jim O'Brien is a smart guy and good coach who makes very good basketball decisions?

I just see the same argument poison too many threads, obviously the OB haters are at fault for this as well, but at least we are all one one page. If UB just had his giant "O'Brien is a genius who should be in the HOF thread" where he can constantly vent at all the OB haters, then we can keep this out of the 8/10 threads it gets into.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Add to that, there are still a number of posters who aren't willing to admit that JOB was a bad coach or that Vogel shouldn't have replaced him or that Vogel's coaching is the key component to the improved record after getting rid of Jim.

You may be able annoy someone into not stating there thoughts, however what could possibly be said that is going to cause anyone to change there mind at this point? You talk about your opinions like they are facts, no one needs to admit anything. Maybe I am missing something but the only people I see bringing Job up are the ones trying to complain about him a bit more. I haven't seen anyone (not once) try and make the argument that getting rid of JOB was a mistake.

Re: '11 Frank versus '10, '09, and '08 Jim: Last game of Jan through First game of April

Hicks, I think I posted something like this year is like the past few seasons with a fast finish, it was an offhanded remark, not something I really believed in strongly, just throwing it out there for the fun of it. The worst thing about any forum or just the written word is impossible to determine how strongly the writer feels about something.

Much has been made about this team’s performance under Frank Vogel. Hey, they’re 15-14 since they fired O’Brien.

Yippee.

I’ve already outlined how bad many of those 14 losses are. The wins aren’t all that impressive, either. Only two teams have had an easier schedule than the Pacers (.463) between January 30th and March 25th. They’ve won five of their last eight games. The five wins have been by a combined 49 points. The three losses have been by a combined 50 points.

The more you look at what’s happening now, the more you have to ask yourself if we haven’t seen this before. In 2008, the Pacers were 15-14 after the All Star break and won 11 of their last 16 ballgames. In 2009, Indy posted a 15-13 post All Star break record and won eight of their final 12. Last season, with one of the worst teams in franchise history, they won 10 of their final 14 games to go 14-16 after the break. These were all written off as a bad team playing hard after most other bad teams had pulled the chute, and broadly criticized as doing nothing but hurting their draft position.

Is what we’re seeing now really any different?

The immediate reaction will be to say, “Yes. They are going to make the playoffs, and that makes a world of difference.” Well, it does, and it doesn’t.

They are going to make the playoffs. They probably only have to win three or perhaps four games to lock it up, and there are only four teams it the Association who have an easier schedule between now and the end of the season. But, really, the Pacers (like the Knicks) are going to the playoffs because they have to take eight teams from the East, and there are only six non-train wrecks in the conference.

And going to the playoffs is a positive, both for the franchise and for the players. But this isn’t a “playoff team” by any stretch of the imagination.

This was from the recap on 8p9s last Saturday after the lost to the Kings. Within hours after it was posted, the Pacers went out and lost to Detroit.

That's a good point, too. This year the wins aren't 'meaningless' or 'empty', as they were before, when it was too little too late. There's more pressure to win this time, and we're doing it without leaning on the veterans.

With the exception of last season, this is revisionist history. In 2008, the Pacers were eliminated after 81 games. In 2009, they were eliminated after 79 games. They were in big holes and were chasing, and large numbers of people on this board wanted the games to be meaningless, but the Pacers were trying to make the playoffs.

There are differences between this finish and the three previous years, however, most of them are external to the Pacers. The biggest difference is that there is no real chase for the last spot. The Pacers have it, and there's no team coming hard and fast to take it.

This team with this record would have been 3 1/2 games out of the playoffs on April 2nd last year. They would have been 1 1/2 games out in 2009, and 1 game out in 2008. That the Pacers are going to make the playoffs is at least equally a function of a lower hurdle as it is anything going on within the organization.

The overall point wasn't that this is exactly the same thing - it's similar, but not the same. It wasn't that this was going to happen even under O'Brien - it would not have. The point was that this was a basketball team with a lot of problems. Way more than can be explained away by either bad coaching or youth.

The point was that as they enter their summer of opportunity, I don't think they have a very sound foundation.

Oh, yeah, somebody mentioned strength of schedule - here are SoSHR's (SoS adjusted for home/road games) for these stretches (last game in Jan thru 1st game in Apr) in each of the last three years: