Cal, Stanford and SJSU football: What the summer mags are saying

As noted on the Hotline in previous summers, I always find the college football preview magazines instructive.

That’s not because of their spectacular accuracy or impeccable insight. (They’re written in March and April.)

Rather, it’s because they provide one-stop shopping for basic information and because of their important role in the hype machine, which is absolutely relevant to everything that happens from Sept – Nov.

The summer mags help set the expectations with their predictions for order-of-finish, all-league teams, Heisman contenders and national rankings.

And we all know how critical the preseason polls are to shaping the BCS options — the lower you start, the tougher it is to join the party.

So here’s a look at how three of magazines evaluated the Bay Area teams.

(Disclaimer: I wrote the Cal and Stanford previews for The Sporting News but did notselect the order of finish — that was done, in advance, by the editors.)

*** Cal

Phil SteelePac-10 finish: 3rd (tie)All-leaguers: LB Mike Mohamed (1st team), P Bryan Anger (1st), TB Shane Vereen (2nd), TE Anthony Miller (2nd), OT Mitchell Schwartz (2nd), OT Matt Summer-Gavin (2nd), DE Cameron Jordan (2nd), PR Jeremy Ross (2nd)Steele’s comment: Cal has not done well when expectations are high and they are not one of the preseason favorites to win the Pac-10 for 2010. They do have a veteran O-line to go with outstanding skill players and my #2 rated D-line in the league. Cal’s had some poor finishes the past few years but they finish this season with 3 straight HG’s (home games). Cal has five Pac-10 HG’s overall and one of their road trips is at Wash St. Now that they are back in the preferred “hunters” role, I look for Cal to pull some surprises and they are a legit Pac-10 title contender.

Athlon’sPac-10 finish: 7thProjected record: 7-5, 4-5Projected bowl: Kraft Fight HungerFirst-team all-leaguers: LB Mike MohamedAthlon’s verdict: Meeting expectations has been a problem for California, but the Bears begin 2010 under the radar. The key to the season could rest with quarterback Kevin Riley, who has been inconsistent and must improve for the offense to move forward. Five starters return on defense, but they have to adapt to a new coordinator and repair a secondary that was among the worst in the Pac-10 last season. The middle of the Pac-10 is wide open — the Bears could finish anywhere from fourth to seventh.

The Sporting NewsPac-10 finish: 8thFirst-team all-leaguers: TE Anthony Miller, DB Sean Cattouse, P Bryan AngerTSN’s comment: For the first time in more than five years, California is projected to finish in the bottom half of the conference. And that projection is justified by the team’s performance in the past few seasons … Yes, there are more than enough concerns to justify cal’s low projected finish. The question is whether the Bears can prove their skeptics wrong.

*** Stanford

Phil SteelePac-10 finish: 5th (tie)All-leaguers: OG David DeCastro (1st), LB Tom Keiser (1st), KR Chris Owusu (1st), QB Andrew Luck (2nd), WR Ryan Whalen (2nd), WR Chris Owusu (2nd)S Delano Howell (2nd)Steele’s comment: It surprises me that I am picking the Cardinal at this spot in the Pac-10 because all 9 sets of my power ratings have them rated either #1, #2 or #3 in the conf in terms of talent. Unfortunately they must face 5 bowl caliber Pac-10 teams on the road while they host Wash St. I feel that Stanford will have back-to-back winning years and even with the loss of Toby Gerhart, this team is stronger than the 2009 version.

Athlon’sPac-10 finish: 4thProjected record: 8-4, 5-4Projected bowl: Las VegasFirst-team all-leaguers: OL David DeCastro, KR Chris OwusuAthlon’s verdict: Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart is gone, but the Cardinal are in great position to challenge for a spot among the top four in the Pac-10. With one of the best lines in the nation and a rising star at quarterback, the cardinal should feature a potent passing game. The defense must patch a leaky secondary and handle a transition to a 3-4 scheme under new coordinator Vic Fangio. Gerhart was important to this team’s success, but Jim Harbaugh has positioned the Cardinal to be an annual bowl team.

The Sporting NewsPac-10 finish: 7thFirst-team all-leaguers: OL Chase Beeler, DL Sione FuaTSN’s comment: For the first time in a decade, Stanford enters a football season with expectations. They might not be USC-sized expectations, but they exist and are justified given Stanford’s success last season.

*** San Jose State

Phil Steele

WAC finish: 9th All-leaguers: SS Duke Ihenacho (1st), OG Isaac Leatiota (2nd), LB Pompey Festejo (2nd), CB Peyton Thompson (2nd)Steele’s comment: Dick Tomey’s final year as head coach did not go as planned as SJSt was -139.9 ypg in Wac play and finished in a tie for the basement. While 15 starters return for new HC Mike MacIntyre, a lot of them are shifting positions so they are not as experienced as you would think. With the changes in schemes and personnel moves, plus the fact they play New mexico St, Hawaii and Idaho all on the road, I will call for the Spartans to have a 2nd straight finish in the basement of the WAC.

Athlon’sWAC finish: 8thProjected record: 3-10, 1-7First-team all-leaguers: S Duke IhenachoAthlon’s final analysis: This is a year of transition for the Spartans, who spent much of spring practice auditioning players at new positions in an effort to plug some of the team’s numerous holes. It’s possible a handful of players could see action on both sides of the ball. Combine that with a daunting 13-game schedule that starts with (Alabama and Wisconsin) and it will be a successful season if San Jose State can top last year’s two-win plateau.

The Sporting NewsWAC finish: 9thFirst-team all-leaguers: S Duke IhenachoTSN’s comment: San Jose State’s quest for points took a bizarre turn during the offseason. The Spartans, who scored 165 points last year, hired Duke defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre to replace Dick Tomey as head coach. MacIntyre then hired Hugh Freeze as offensive coordinator, only to lose him to Arkansas State after two months because of a family issue that pushed Freeze closer to home. That left the Spartans without an offensive coordinator for the first couple weeks of spring ball.

Jon Wilner

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JW – sorry to say this, but the write ups by Phil Steel and Athlon deliver a lot more meat than the Sporting News. I can only assume that your editor cut out all of the actual info from the initial summaries you wrote. It’s also interesting how the “First-team All-Leaguers” you pick are so different from the other publications.

All the points made about schedule are key to the success for Cal and Stanford. I see Cal having a good year with their favorable schedule, all of the returning experienced players, and Tedford at the helm. 8-4 or 9-3 is definitely doable. I’m non-committal on the season Stanford will have. I wouldn’t be surprised by 7-5 (5-4 Pac10). I’d be disappointed, but not surprised. I think the variability in outcome for both teams could be huge. We could see two teams playing for the RB at the Big Game or we could see two teams fighting for bowl eligibility.

Rob McAndrew

HEy Jon,
I think you will be eating your words about your picks for Pac-10 1st team. Unless you think Mike Mo will get injured, not often does a returning 1st teamer not make it again. Center Kris O’Dowd for USC is an example of how an injury could affect play after returning as a Pac-10 1st teamer. The players you picked are great, but we’ll see who ends up on the 1st team at the end of the season. Akeem Ayers is a no-brainer, and Burfict will have the stats because the defense will be on the field a lot with ASU’s bad offense. Most selections of 1st team conference linebackers usually don’t distinguish too much between ILB and OLB when making the selection. Is that why you have Mike Mo not selected and went with an actual OLB to compliment the other two?

As FarmBeliever stated: “the First team All-leaguers you pick are so different from other publications.”

Papa John

I would think that these prognostications are especially irrelevant given the NCAA sanctions against USC. Speaking of which, I would love your reaction to the firing of Garrett/hiring of Haden as USC AD.

StanTheMan

Stanford faces five bowl-caliber teams on the road. Who would that be?
UCLA, Notre Dame, Oregon, ASU, and the Weenies.

UCLA – wasn’t exactly impressive last year, and they don’t seem to be better this year

Notre Dame – another new coach, another new system, and a tentative fan base. Puh-leeze

Oregon – with so many suspended or kicked off the team, they still have talent but they are beatable. I expect the Cardinal to drop this one though. Autzen is a hell-hole to play in.

ASU – bowl caliber? really?

Weenies – Stanford’s better, the Weenies aren’t, and hopefully Harbaugh has learned his lessons from last year. This is never a road game like the others. It’s almost always a toss-up.

el Palo

About as worthwhile and accurate as reading next month’s weather report. The 3 publications couldn’t even get a consensus for where Cal and Stanford will finish. The only consistent prognostications were for SJSU– poor Spartans.

I would expect Stanford to be better than Cal this year. However they have to come to Autzen for that 8:15 kickoff. That could keep several hard core Ducks(like myself) at home. Otherwise, lots of good teams have lost there. On the other hand, Oregon has to come to Cal where they haven’;t won since2002.

milo

It’s going to be a typically wacky season in the Pac-10 this year, made wackier by U$C sanctions. A number of teams could win it.

That said, CALIFORNIA HAS THE AXE and I look forward to a hearty defense of said Axe in Big Game ’10 at Memorial.

Rocky

Andrew got much LUCK from having toby on his team. Enough with this talk that he’s a big time talent. yeah and I’M THE POPE.

Toby was that good. Without him they finish at the bottom. They will be lucky to finish 4th.

toby’s freaking 30 carries a game is what made stanford what it was last year. Winning record this year sure but not by much. Maybe one game over .500 at best.

mk92

And I look forward to several spur-of-the-moment trips to Australia by milo.

We Bandwagon!

Todd

As long as Tedford is the Cal coach Cal will not be able to break into the top half of the PAC 10, or 12!

Todd

Milo should get ready for another season of crying, whining, & excuse making. Tedford will once again take a talented team into the season and coach them right down toward the PAC 10 cellar! Cal will probably start their EL FLOPO act even earlier this year! Maybe ASU & WSU will finish lower than Cal in the conference? or maybe not! I believe Cal might battle for the SF Nut Bowl, but not sure they can get enough wins to be bowl eligible. They do have a weak non conference schedule so maybe they can eek out 5, or 6 wins. They need to get by the always tough fightin Sac. State Hornets to get things rollin.

milo

haha…keep swinging Furd cuz CALIFORNIA HAS THE AXE…and we own you dopes until November. You lads should bet the house against Tedford and Cal in Nov ’10 in Memorial.

Okay Stanfurd fans, onward to Coach Jimmy’s Golden Toiletorium…Jimmy is gonna recruit while on the throne…right before he bolts for the U Mich job at the end of the season!

Milo…Jim Harbaugh will not bolt for Michigan. There is absolutely no evidence of that. And enjoy the axe while you have it…because it wont be for long.

Mr. Califash

Why does SJSU even bother? Is there anyone still alive who remembers when the Spartans didn’t suck? The school is losing millions from the struggling State for academics and still spending millions to field athletic teams that are an embarrassment. They should throw out the athletic department, spend the money on their actual mission and stop embarrassing themselves.