I'm in the middle of doing a cashflow forecast for a sandwich bar I would like to set up but have no idea how to get accurate sales figure forecasts. I can take an educated guess by observing competitors etc, but without more detail I cannot forecast whether my business will survive, let alone make a profit!

Has anyone set up a sandwich bar or similar business and can share info on how they got their sales forecasts? I need to know how to calculate things like average basket spend and number of customers per day. Any assistance would be much appreciated!

Anna

Zozzy

24-01-2003, 10:41 AM

Hi Anna

I had the same problem when doing my business plan, but in the end, after speaking to a business advisor it seems it's all a bit finger in the wind ...

I looked at the various different bits of my possible market, how many people I thought I could reach initially through pr etc and then used fairly low estimations of how many would become customers. I looked at various different scenarios, ie, worst case, expected and then if things went really well. Not v. scientific and I'm sure someone on here will have a better method ...

Zoe

natalie

24-01-2003, 11:51 AM

Hi Anna,

My method was pretty similar to Zoe's. It's all a matter of guestimates, which I know can be pretty difficult, but work out how much you actually need to make to run the business ie. monthly outgoings and work from there.

I also worked out one of my cashflows on 'worst case scenario', then I know that anything about the estimates is good.

Natalie Brown
NLB Travel
www.nlbtravel.co.uk

DavidHa

24-01-2003, 12:04 PM

Hi Anna,

Take a day out, visit a number of establishments around the area in which you look to establish your business. Sit in, near the window, count the number of people who walk by and those who come in, this is your conversion rate.

Do this for a big brand establishment, mid sized and small one, try and get one slightly out of town to judge how much of your business is passing through. You may also like to vary your times, peak (breakfast & dinner) and off peak (9 - 11 and 2-4)

What you'll end up with is set of figures you can then put a valued estimate against, for example the average number of passing trade per hour, and the average conversion rate. You can then combine this with seasonal trends (christmas busy, summer slow) to produce a realistic guess as to how your business will stand up.

Don't forget to mention though that when you set up your business you'll no doubt hand out or post some flyers, this will increase your chances of converting some of that passing trade into real business.

A launch day and offer would do this for you.

Good luck and don't forget to enjoy it.

David

Anonymoose

24-01-2003, 08:18 PM

Thanks all for your advice!

Scothie

25-01-2003, 02:27 PM

If viable do some surveys/questionnaires in the town/area you thinking about setting up the business.