If there’s one thing global investors are hoping for when the Federal Reserve ends a policy meeting today, it’s this: no surprises.

Pretty much everyone expects the Fed to take its first step toward slowing the economic stimulus it’s supplied since the financial crisis and the Great Recession swept through the economy five years ago. Yet it’s also assumed the Fed will do so gingerly: with a small cut in its monthly Treasury and mortgage bond purchases — from $85 billion to perhaps $75 billion. Those purchases have helped keep long-term loan rates ultralow to encourage borrowing and spending.

Here’s what to look for from each of three key events today:

Fed statement

This is where the Fed would announce its first slowdown in bond purchases. Many economists expect the cut to come entirely from the Fed’s $45 billion a month in Treasury bond purchases. That would leave untouched its $40 billion a month in mortgage bond purchases.

The reasoning: The mortgage bond buying is intended to keep downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed likely doesn’t want to diminish its support for the housing market, whose gradual but steady comeback has been a pillar for the U.S. economic recovery.

The statement is also where the Fed could strengthen its commitment to keep its key short-term rate at a record low. In December, the Fed began saying it expects to keep this rate near zero at least until unemployment falls to 6.5 percent — as long as the inflation outlook remains mild. Unemployment is now 7.3 percent. And in the past 12 months, consumer prices are up 1.5 percent, below the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target.

Fed’s updated economic outlook

This is one of four meetings each year when the Fed updates its economic outlook, based on individual forecasts of board members and regional bank presidents. It’s likely to downgrade its outlook as it takes account of reality: The U.S. economy hasn’t grown as fast this year as the Fed had expected.

In their previous forecast three months ago, Fed officials predicted that the economy would grow between 2.3 percent and 2.6 this year and between 3 percent and 3.5 percent next year. Most economists think the economy will have grown 2 percent — at best — this year and roughly 2.6 percent next year.

The Fed will update its forecasts for unemployment and inflation, too.

Besides updating its outlook for 2013, 2014 and 2015, the Fed will offer its first economic predictions for 2016.

Bernanke news conference

This will be a major event — and not just because it will likely follow the Fed’s announcement of a pullback in bond buying. It’s also Bernanke’s next-to-last news conference as chairman before his term ends Jan. 31. (His final news conference will follow the Fed’s last meeting of the year in mid-December.) Early this week, Lawrence Summers withdrew from consideration for the chairman’s job, leaving the Fed’s vice chair, Janet Yellen, as the leading candidate. Obama could announce his choice later this month.