England's fate to advance to the round of 16 lies on the hands of the Italians.

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FiveThirtyEight’s World Cup forecasting model uses ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI) — a system that combines game- and player-based ratings to estimate a team’s overall skill level — to calculate odds of each country’s performance during the two stages of the World Cup. The probabilities are based on 10,000 simulations and will be updated at the end of each match. Read about our model, and see FiveThirtyEight and Grantland for ongoing coverage.