Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0951 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020
Areas affected...I-70 Corridor from eastern KS through MO into
west-central IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 270251Z - 270415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected after 03Z. Elevated
supercells capable of large hail and locally damaging wind will be
possible. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Regional 00Z soundings across the central/southern
Plains depict relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, with seasonably
rich low-level moisture noted across portions of OK/TX. Meanwhile,
short-term guidance and area VWPs continue to depict an increasing
southwesterly low-level jet from western OK into portions of KS,
which will favor increasing ascent (as noted with gradually
expanding radar echoes across KS) to the north of a frontal boundary
draped from northern OK into MO. This ascent, combined with
continued moisture transport into the region, is expected to result
in thunderstorm development after 03Z somewhere near the I-70
corridor from northeast KS into MO.
Moderate instability (MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg
range) and strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt for storms
based around 800 mb) will support the potential for one or more
elevated supercells to develop overnight. Large hail (locally very
large) will be the primary threat, though locally damaging wind will
also be possible, especially with any forward-propagating clusters
that evolve with time. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely
by 04Z to address these threats.
..Dean/Grams.. 03/27/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39159705 39649431 39809247 39919086 39838952 38308956
38189262 38179378 38149595 38289700 38789719 39159705