Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Overall, half the markets (14 of 28) are posting positive short-term expectations, while short-term expectations are negative in the other half.

Only 4 of the 28 CMAs have positive expectations for both the short and the long terms.

The number of CMAs with positive long-term expectations remains unchanged this month, at 10.

The CMAs with the biggest year-over-year increase in housing starts in October were Halifax, Thunder Bay, Greater Sudbury, Saguenay, and Saint John.

Abbotsford had the biggest year-over-year decline in housing starts in October.

Expectations Quadrant

Halifax

Toronto

London

Winnipeg

Saint John

Montréal

Sherbrooke

Ottawa–Gatineau

St. Catharines–Niagara

Regina

Saskatoon

Calgary

Edmonton

Vancouver

Moncton

Oshawa

Hamilton

Windsor

Victoria

Abbotsford

St. John’s

Québec City

Trois-Rivières

Saguenay

Kingston

Sudbury

Thunder Bay

Kitchener–Waterloo

Note: Positioning in the quadrant indicates short- and long-term expectation for each CMA’s housing market. The best position would be in the Up-Up quadrant, which shows positive prospects for both short- and long-term growth. The worst position would be in the Down-Down quadrant.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.

Metropolitan Housing Starts

Expectations

Year Ago

6-Mon. MA

3-Mon. MA

Oct. 12

Short Term*

Long Term**

St. John’s

1,718

2,077

2,039

1,816

–

–

Halifax

1,113

3,008

4,231

5,017

+

+

Saint John

286

440

609

465

+

–

Moncton

1,031

1,339

1,325

711

–

+

Québec CMA

4,813

6,202

5,970

3,412

–

–

Montréal

23,309

21,069

21,691

20,036

+

–

Trois-Rivières

1,152

914

733

479

–

–

Saguenay

698

989

1,034

1,668

–

–

Sherbrooke

1,801

1,492

1,539

1,403

+

–

Ottawa–Gatineau

9,483

9,589

6,568

6,801

+

–

Kingston

968

963

1,113

893

–

–

Greater Sudbury

356

573

553

920

–

–

Thunder Bay

174

345

443

717

–

–

Oshawa

1,568

1,485

1,325

1,485

–

+

Toronto

39,784

43,706

44,144

38,667

+

+

Hamilton

3,296

2,417

2,297

1,810

–

+

St. Catharines–Niagara

856

919

959

881

+

–

Kitchener–Waterloo

2,926

2,112

2,120

1,126

–

–

London

1,767

2,170

2,067

1,420

+

+

Windsor

668

723

769

750

–

+

Winnipeg

5,865

4,284

4,701

3,928

+

+

Regina

3,434

2,744

3,147

3,472

+

–

Saskatoon

3,340

3,723

4,506

4,694

+

–

Calgary

10,765

11,304

11,166

10,739

+

–

Edmonton

12,264

12,841

12,255

11,478

+

–

Vancouver

17,945

20,381

18,490

18,674

+

–

Victoria

1,828

1,729

1,941

1,423

–

+

Abbotsford

995

352

317

275

–

+

Starts seasonally adjusted, annual rate.
*Short-term expectations are based on residential permits data.
**Long-term expectations are based on demographic requirements.
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; CMHC Housing Time Series Database.

About the Metropolitan Housing Starts

The monthly Metropolitan Housing Starts publication provides the recent trends in housing starts for 28 metropolitan areas and expectations for starts over both the short and long term.

Disclaimer: Forecasts and research often involve numerous assumptions and data sources, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. This information is not intended as specific investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice.