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Friday, September 19, 2014

CHART OF THE DAY

16 comments:

Oh brother..why bother with such precision..nobody can predict the market to the degree you try to. Good luck with this forecast..we will see what happens over the next few weeeks..we could have a crash too..or maybe no real decline and a march right up to new highs.. I went back and looked at some of your previous forecasts..so many blown ones..a year ago you were predicting a collapse to 1000 then afterwards a big breakout..then back to 1000..

LOL name me one analyst in the history of the world that doesn't change his expectations if the market changes.All that matters is if one makes money or not and we are making money in every portfolio (except bonds).

Case in point. Even though I expect the market to take a dip over the next week or two I'm not selling my stock market positions. We are entering the final manic phase of this bull market and on the chance that the daily cycle low were to disappear I don't want to miss the move.

But for those that missed the move you SHOULD get an opportunity to buy in the next week or so.

In the case of gold. Yes I expect it will go down and test and probably break 1180, but if the dollar tops and gold starts to respond then I will change my expectation 180 degrees and start buying.

Too many changes for me..you literally change your mind every 6 hours..too many 180 degree turns for me..unless you have all day to monitor your hourly forecasts.

I just find it laughable that you put out forecasts with a precision that we all know is not possible..nobody even the best has any hope of knowing what the market will do over the next week or two. Why not give us the general idea and try and stick to it for more than a few days.

I know a lot of analysts who make calls they stick with for months if not years..in fact most analysts do not change their mind with the wind..but some analysts could be a bit more flexible..but you are the other extreme..

What are you talking about? I've been bullish on the stock market since late 2012. I've been bearish on gold since the top on July 14.

Sometimes I will try to take a short term trade if I think the odds favor it but my bigger themes remain the same.

FWIW the two larger themes that reversed because the market told me I was wrong was the dollar and commodities in the latter half of the year. The dollar's three year cycle low came sooner than I expected and that caused commodities to be weak rather than strong in the second half of the year. Once I recognized the change I reversed my expectations.

The result: Even though metals and commodities are down our metal and commodity portfolios are up.

Gary. I for one think you do great work. No one has a crystal ball. Your short term analysis looks like a small broadening formation. Do you expect a larger decline after next top? McHugh pointed out we just got first Hindenberg omen.

Dude..this site was all about gold for the longest time until you got your ass handed to you and then you switch to spx, oil whatever....when ever you get call wrong you blame manipulation and when you get something right you pat yourself on the back....kind of a joke

Quite the contrary. Once I recognized that the manipulation was happening I adapted my trading to take advantage of it. Spotting manipulation has allowed me to call almost the exact top of the last three intermediate cycles. Show me one other analyst that has done that.

Yup Gary has been going on and on about money spilling into the commodities market..now all of a sudden the general markets are going to make big new highs..who the heck knows what he will say in a month or so..

Actually what I said was when the regular stock market tops the inflation that has been stored there should spill into the undervalued commodity markets. But since the stock market hasn't topped yet the process has yet to begin.

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