Luhnow finds comfort level entering 3rd year

Astros manager Bo Porter, left, and general manager Jeff Luhnow, second from left, converse regularly throughout the regular season, a testament to the front office's efforts to keep everyone in the organization on the same page.

Luhnow won't pout when something bad happens - and there's been plenty over which to pout.

"He's not really an emotional or reactive person," Astros scouting director Mike Elias said. "I think that's served him really well in his career, and it's part of being a good executive. He's able to contain his emotions, especially when they're negative emotions. He'll visibly get excited when the team wins or hits a home run or ties a game, but he's certainly not pouting or demonstrating his frustration when something bad happens. But, knowing him as well as I do, I can see it."

Realistically, nothing could have prepared Luhnow for the feeling he's dealt with the last two years: not his degree from Northwestern, not his time in the Cardinals front office.

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Assembling a major league team that has yet to crack 60 wins under his watch is trying and painful, no matter if the bloodletting has been by design.

"I think it's tough on him," Astros owner Jim Crane said of his GM. "He wears it pretty well. Certainly it wears on all of us. I put pressure on the guys to do things correctly and be the best they can be, and are we making the right decisions. So there's pressure on everybody. He may not show it, but I'm sure it's there."

He's always been accountable. After every game, win or lose, Luhnow has made his way to the clubhouse to talk to manager Bo Porter.

Growing pains expected

"You live through 162 games, you watch every inning of every game and you lose 111 of them, it's not something you want to repeat," Luhnow said. "I try and channel it more in terms of motivation for the future. I want to be able to look back on these days and think of them as character building and a necessary step we had to go through to get to what our ultimate end-goal is. I do feel like the difficulties of the last couple years have allowed us to move the plan, accelerate the plan.

"Ultimately, it will be worth it, but it doesn't feel like it when you're going through it. And it is difficult every night going down there and talking to the manager. … It's a lot more fun when they're playing music (after a win) and all that. We're all in this together, and I don't want them to feel like they're not there when we don't perform well."

Luhnow is about to enter his third season as the Astros' general manager, a significant marker. Year 3 typically brings higher expectations, no matter the market. It too often means a higher level of comfort for not only the GM, but the entire operation.

Crane said the Astros' 2013 season hit "the bottom at the end of the year." In the eyes of those on the inside and other major league executives, it should only get better from here - and it needs to.

The Astros needed a complete overhaul. Simply hiring Luhnow and dropping him into the existing framework would not have worked. The minor league philosophy needs to be in line with the major league philosophy, and so on.

But starting from scratch can be exceedingly painful. In the midst of all the losing, the pressure to find a Band-Aid solution - a quick but fleeting fix by free agency or trade- can mount.

Neal Huntington didn't make the playoffs until his sixth season as Pittsburgh GM, this past year. His first five seasons all ended with losing records.

"There's no question that as the losses pile up, it becomes harder to stick to your plan," Huntington said. "It becomes more of a challenge, and you get more questions about it. The reality is the best way to turn around an organization is to accumulate talent and then to develop that talent. I have a ton of respect for how Jeff has gone about it."

The Twins have finished with three straight 60-win seasons. Their general manager, Terry Ryan, was first on the job well before Luhnow was even in the industry.

"We all want to get better," Ryan said. "Houston does, Minnesota does. Any of the teams that struggled. … Jeff's got the same issues that I have.

"We've had a tough couple years. We all have prospects in the system that we're very proud of. We're wishing that process would go sooner rather than later. He's got a wealth of talent and we feel like we've got a pretty good system in place. But, we also have to be realistic that time and patience are going to be one of the virtues we're going to have to follow."

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak and Luhnow are still in touch. It's a common suggestion that the Astros are trying to emulate the Cardinals, and the connections for Luhnow and St. Louis remain alive. Luhnow and Crane were both on hand for some of the World Series between the Red Sox and Cardinals.

But, as Mozeliak pointed out, suggesting the Astros are trying to be the Cardinals is limited to an "operational" perspective. The Cardinals have 23 pennants, the Astros one.

"It's hard to replicate exactly what we have, because we have history," Mozeliak said. "And part of the success of our organization is embracing that history. But … when you think about sort of an operational standpoint in looking at the successes we had in St. Louis, replicating that to some degree is certainly a good place to start."

Building a franchise's winning history has to start somewhere. To Mozeliak, what's special about Luhnow is that he's had the vision from the get-go.

Avoiding 'shortcuts'

"I think what you have to admire about what he and the organization are doing is, they had a strategic plan from day one," Mozeliak said. "Even as painful as it might be in the early parts of it, what they've been able to do with their farm system, the depth they've been able to build up … I think trying to take a shortcut to get to where they were would have ended up probably putting additional painful years on a franchise that needed help. The one thing I can tell you about Jeff and the staff is they're disciplined, and it'll stay that way."

The Astros made changes to the front office and major league staff this winter, and are still fine-tuning. They hired Colin Wyers, a former Baseball Prospectus writer, to join their decision sciences department. They shuffled around their coaching staff, too.

Teams are always trying to improve, but the value of experiencing a major league calendar a couple of times may well be underappreciated. Executives require time to pinpoint needs, what works and what doesn't.

"We like his staff, we like the guys he's put in the staff," Crane said. "I can tell you that there's continuity in that group. Because my job as running the organization, sitting on top, is to make sure I got everybody working together and nobody breaks rank and we're singing the same song. So I think you'll see that with Jeff, I think you'll see that with (president of business operations Reid Ryan), you'll see that with me. We back each other up.

"Now, if we got to make changes, we'll make changes. But I got a lot of confidence in (Luhnow). I think he's done a great job so far."

When Luhnow was hired in 2011, the winter meetings had already arrived. He was a bit behind the 8-ball from the start, and he acknowledges the benefit of time on the job.

"It takes a year just to get a feel for what you have in the organization, both from a human resource standpoint, front office as well as players," Luhnow said. "It took a full cycle for that. … Then the second year a lot of it was just making sure that we were building the infrastructure, have all the right people in the right spots. I feel pretty good about it.

"I kind of feel like both in the front office and on the field, that what we have now is the group. I don't really feel like there's going to be that kind of turnover."

Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington is, like Luhnow, entering his third year. Cherington is a special case, however, because he just won the World Series. But there are similarities in his and Luhnow's situations: both GMs went through managerial searches in 2012, and that process takes resources.

Time that could be devoted to figuring out offseason plans inherently has to be diverted elsewhere. Fortunately for both, they didn't have to find a skipper this offseason.

"Going through the whole calendar a couple times, you get comfortable with sort of everything that comes up over the course of the full calendar," Cherington said. "Like, 'Alright, in October, this is what we need to be doing. And November, I need to be prepare for this, this, this, this.' There are fewer surprises. … After a managerial search you have to do coaching staff. That takes a ton of time. For Jeff, he's not doing that this offseason. I'm sure he's thankful."

Even to this day, as a general manager who's worked in three different decades, Twins' GM Terry Ryan is still improving.

"The comfort level and the experience and your people you surround yourself and certainly the relationship with your manager and your ownership and so forth, there's a familiarity there and that's confidence that builds up over the course of time," he said. "You've got things in place and you feel good about your minor leagues and scouting directors, your scouts that you trust, your international people. It's just a comfort level that all of us try and strive to get to. I'm sure (Luhnow) after his second, third year now, he probably feels pretty darn good about where they're headed."

Huntington's Pirates front office knew that their third year would be difficult. As hard as it was to stick to the plan in Years 1 and 2, the third year was even tougher.

Prospects no sure thing

"Typically, you're just starting to really see the fruits of your labor in terms of organizational development and organizational growth," Huntington said. "We also talked internally, the third year was going to be the toughest. Because the honey-moon period is over. The win expectation is the highest. People start to become a little bit disconcerted with continued losing, and it's hard. It's hard to stay the course. Fortunately, we had a group of people despite our loss record increasing our third year, we had a group of people that were willing to stay the course."

Huntington warned generally that not every top prospect will come up and play like Bryce Harper, Mike Trout or Manny Machado. George Springer could struggle. So could Carlos Correa and Mark Appel when they arrive.

The development curve doesn't stop when a player reaches the majors.

"The fun part of the process is where we are now and where I believe Jeff and Houston is going to get," Huntington said. "You start to win, you start to turn that corner and now you get that momentum rolling in a positive direction. For us, there wasn't an 'a-ha!' moment. … The worst-to-first teams are built over years. It doesn't really happen overnight."

Excitement building

Luhnow and Crane both acknowledged a level of excitement entering this offseason. Crane expects to be able to add at least $30 million to the payroll. The overall turnaround for the Astros' farm system has gone faster than planned in Luhnow's assessment.

"Now, what really matters, is when they come to the big leagues and produce," Luhnow said. "And that's going to be a fun part and I think we're going to see a lot of that starting next year."

Added Crane: "We're excited. We're hoping we can pick up some decent players and hopefully some good free agents to fill the holes and look for a competitive team and the fans will start coming out. The bottom line, we need the support they give us, they're vital, they are the customer and the customer and the customer comes first and we need to put a better product out there. Up until now, it wouldn't have done a lot of good to throw a lot of cash at it. And I think most people understand that. … We think this could be getting to the time when we could have more success."

The Astros are preparing to fire on a few more cylinders. But there's no guarantee of results yet, and even when the results come, the toughest part is then maintaining them.

"From just a pure operating standpoint, they've got to be in a more seamless state," Mozeliak said. "Having said that, our game is viewed on success at the major league level, in a win and loss column. So at some point, they have to start seeing gains."

Huntington's Pirates made the playoffs this past season. Cherington's Red Sox have a title to defend.

Losing is always tough. When winning is the expectation - and that time is nearing in the next few seasons - that's when it'll be toughest to walk into Porter's office.

"Now our challenge is sustaining it," Huntington said. "If you think the building's hard, wait until you try to sustain. That's where the Oaklands and the Tampas and the Minnesotas back in the day, that's where those clubs were so impressive. Because they not only built it, now they're sustaining it."