Poll: Dem Murphy has slight lead in NY House race

Friday

Mar 27, 2009 at 10:45 AM

ALBANY, N.Y. (AP) -- A new poll says Democrat Scott Murphy is slightly ahead of Republican Jim Tedisco in a congressional special election that is being viewed as a referendum on President Barack Obama's popularity and his stimulus plan.

The Siena College survey gives Murphy a lead of 4 percentage points in the heavily Republican 20th Congressional District. The poll, released Friday, has a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

Murphy, a venture capital manager, has the support of 47 percent of voters, compared to 43 percent for Tedisco, a veteran of 20 years in the state Assembly.

Tuesday's special election is for the seat U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand vacated when she was appointed to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Tedisco had led from the beginning of the compressed campaign that began in late January after Paterson called for the special election.

The well-financed campaign has drawn national interest as one of the first congressional races following the inaugration of Obama, who has endorsed Murphy.

Some see it as a test of whether Republicans can turn back the Democratic momentum of the past two election cycles nationally and within New York. There's been heavy advertising - much of it negative - and outreach in the district that stretches from near the Canadian border to just north of New York City's suburbs.

"At least 9 in 10 voters have seen or heard a commercial for both Tedisco and Murphy," said Steven Greenberg, pollster for the Siena Research Institute. "By a margin of 30-23 percent, voters say Murphy's ads make them less likely to vote for him."

"Tedisco's commercials fare even worse with voters," Greenberg said. Of those who have seen a Tedisco ad, 37 percent say they're less likely to support Tedisco because of the ad while 14 percent say the ads make them more likely to support the Republican.

More voters - 44 percent to 25 percent - saw Tedisco's campaign as more negative than Murphy's but most of those polled say they believe Tedisco will win.

The district has more than 196,000 registered Republicans compared to about 125,000 registered Democrats. There are more than 118,000 voters who aren't affiliated with either party. The district was held by Republicans for more than 20 years before Gillibrand won two terms.