Golden Globes Predictions: Who’s Going to Win and Why?

Yes, there will be surprises at the 75th Golden Globe Awards on Sunday evening. There always are at the Golden Globes.

With only about 90 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association casting ballots, the Globes are simply too dependent on the whims of a few voters to make for easy predictions. A dozen votes here and there can make a huge difference, dumping presumed frontrunners in favor of hot dark horses and upsetting lots of careful prognosticating.

But it’s also worth noting that the oft-maligned HFPA has for the large part made reasonable, even smart choices in recent years — and as a group that has been the butt of jokes for decades, they’re not anxious to provide more fodder for their critics.

So we can expect a string of eminently defensible choices on Sunday, along with a few of the surprises that will always pop up when you entrust high-profile decisions to a group that’s smaller than, say, the United States Senate.

“Dunkirk” is big and bold and “The Post” is serious and timely, but the film with the most Globe nominations, “The Shape of Water,” is gloriously imaginative filmmaking whose biggest competition might have been two films that ended up being categorized as comedies, “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.”

Gary Oldman is revered, under-recognized and overdue, and “Darkest Hour” gives him the kind of showcase that voters should celebrate. But his first Globe nomination is hardly a sure win, because he’s been an outspoken critic of the HFPA in the past, even calling for a boycott at one point. He changed his tune this year and said he was “very proud” of the nomination. If voters forgive and forget, he wins; if not, Timothée Chalamet could easily score an upset. Here’s betting the HFPA takes the high road.

Meryl Streep provided the highlight of last year’s Globes show, but the Cecil B. DeMille award was probably thank-you enough. This one is probably between Sally Hawkins and Frances McDormand – and while Hawkins gives a radiant wordless performance in “The Shape of Water,” who the heck can say no to McDormand and “Three Billboards?”

“Lady Bird” could win if voters want to send a message in a year where women are claiming their spot in Hollywood. “Get Out” could win if voters aren’t gun-shy after all the criticism the HFPA received for accepting it as a comedy. “The Disaster Artist” could even win if they just want to have fun. I give a narrow edge to “Get Out,” only because the film with the most critics’ awards tends to get a Globe, too.

While Hugh Jackman could help the HFPA insist that the “musical” part of the category name actually means something, this is probably between Daniel Kaluuya and James Franco. And Franco has been omnipresent in the last month, charming everybody who gets near his movie – and while “Disaster Artist” might not be as important as “Get Out,” it’s pretty irresistible.

If the Globes didn’t have separate drama and musical/comedy acting categories, Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie are probably the only nominees who’d be contending for a spot in a single category. And Ronan is the only one who’d be contending to win.

Sam Rockwell’s performance is strong and strange enough that he could pull off an upset, and Christopher Plummer is a real contender because he’d be the HFPA’s way of saluting Ridley Scott for his audacious last-minute reshoot with Plummer stepping into the role originally played by Kevin Spacey. But three nominations might be enough of a salute for Scott’s (and Plummer’s) film, leaving the path clear for Willem Dafoe to pick up yet another award for “The Florida Project.”

While Mary J. Blige and Hong Chau have a shot and everybody loves Octavia Spencer, this will probably come down to a pair of actresses playing moms who clashed with their daughters. Laurie Metcalf has a couple of softer, redemptive moments in “Lady Bird,” which should give her the edge over Allison Janney’s mom from hell in “I, Tonya.”

Ridley Scott’s movie isn’t even nominated for best picture, so it’s hard to imagine him winning here. Spielberg might do it, but the race is probably between the guys responsible for the boldest, biggest movies, Christopher Nolan for “Dunkirk” and Guillermo del Toro for “The Shape of Water.” “Dunkirk” feels a bit like old news by now, so look for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to give this to the director for whom English is a second language.

A tight race between Greta Gerwig and Martin McDonagh might just be tipped in Gerwig’s direction by the fact that her screenplay, based on her own teenage years, is more heartfelt – and also by the fact that the HFPA might owe her one, since she wasn’t nominated for Best Director.

Jonny Greenwood’s demented piano music would be the adventurous choice, John Williams’ the safest possible one. But this should go to Hans Zimmer for the bold “Dunkirk” or Alexandre Desplat for the evocative “The Shape of Water.” Look for emotion to take the day.

Winner: Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”

BEST ORIGINAL SONGNominees:
“Home” from “Ferdinand”
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound”
“Remember Me” from “Coco”
“The Star” from “The Star”
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”

They could give the award to stars like Nick Jonas (“Home”), Mary J. Blige (“Mighty River”) or Mariah Carey (“The Star”), and they might be tempted to do just that. But the two songs from musical-theater teams mean the most to their films, and we suspect that Pasek and Paul’s showstopper “This Is Me” will narrowly edge out Bobby and Kristen Anderson-Lopez’s touching “Remember Me.”

Can anything beat Pixar’s “Coco?” Don’t count on it, unless the oil-painting technique used in “Loving Vincent” is even more impressive than we realize. But look: “Cars 2” is the only Pixar movie to be nominated and lose a Golden Globe to a non-Pixar movie, and “Coco” is no “Cars 2.”

Last year, the Globes got to look bolder than the Oscars by voting for Paul Verhoeven’s transgressive “Elle,” which didn’t even make the Oscar shortlist. This year, they could go for another Oscar castoff if they vote for Angelina Jolie’s “First They Killed My Father,” and celebrate a big star in the process. But that won’t make them look bold, it’ll make them look like star-fluffers – and they’re tired of those kind of wisecracks. “The Square” should edge out “A Fantastic Woman.”

In the TV categories, HFPA voters love to salute new shows, and to go a different route than the Emmys. The first of those won’t be difficult, but the second will be – “The Handmaid’s Tale” was the big winner at the Emmys, but it feels too much like the show of the moment for the Globes to shy away just because the Television Academy likes it too.

Winner: “The Handmaid’s Tale”

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDYNominees:
“Black-ish”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“Master of None”
“SMILF”
“Will and Grace”

It’ll be easy to go for a new show in this category, too – but which one, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” or “SMILF?” Maybe the former, which had a splashy debut just as the HFPA was voting.

Winner: “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

BEST LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISIONNominees:
“Big Little Lies”
“Fargo”
“Feud: Bette and Joan”
“The Sinner”
“Top of the Lake: China Girl”

The voters reportedly loved “The Sinner,” but this is probably another category where the reigning Emmy champ will be too much of an event to ignore. But there’s one potential snag: Now that HBO has announced a second season, “Big Little Lies” should really be in the drama-series category – and if voters feel as if they’re victims of category fraud, “The Sinner” could stage an upset here.

Voters apparently really liked the revived “Will and Grace,” so Eric McCormack is a contender. Aziz Ansari is always a cool choice. And Kevin Bacon is not only a star, he’ll let some lucky presenter say “I Love Dick” on national television.

There are lots of fresh new faces on fresh new shows in this category, and you could make a case for any of them winning. But as creator, showrunner and star of a late-breaking show, maybe Frankie Shaw has a slight edge over Rachel Brosnahan.

Winner: Frankis Shaw, “SMILF”

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Robert De Niro, “The Wizard of Lies”
Jude Law, “The Young Pope”
Kyle MacLachlan, “Twin Peaks”
Ewan McGregor, “Fargo”
Geoffrey Rush, “Genius”

Fresh new faces? Not so much. In a category filled with esteemed veterans, look for the most veteran and most esteemed to take the prize.

Yes, this should be an easy win for Nicole Kidman, who already has the Emmy for her performance in “Big Little Lies.” But voters know it’s not really a limited series, and they do love Jessica Biel and “The Sinner,” so this is an upset waiting to happen.

The supporting categories mix drama and comedy series with limited series and TV movies, which means that qualms about where “Big Little Lies” belongs are meaningless here. That’ll help Alexander Skarsgard, who had the most eye-catching, um, part of the season.

The 2018 Golden Glob nominations were announced on Monday and among the many shoo-ins and usual suspects were some serious upsets and players that came out of left field. Here are the biggest snubs and surprises this season.

“The Big Sick” -- Snub

Kumail Nanjiani and and Emily V. Gordon's’s warm-hearted yet heartbreaking film was completely snubbed in this year’s nominations, although it had the potential to be nominated in several categories. The film stole critics’ and fans’ hearts, but maybe the summer release wasn't fresh in voters' minds?

Much ink has been spilled over this sumptuous Italian gay romance from Sony Pictures Classics. Some people say Best Supporting Actor Globes nominee Armie Hammer is too old for Best Actor nominee Timothee Chalamet. Some say the film is not gay enough, or the parents are too supportive. But pretty much everyone agrees Guadagnino delivered a dazzling and transcendent love story. If only there were Golden Globe nominations for dancing gifs.

Denzel Washington, "Roman J. Israel, Esq." -- Surprise

Proving yet again how much the Globes care about star power, Washington was nominated for his performance in “Roman J. Israel, Esq,” despite mixed reviews for the film. Maybe this is the start of something.

Greta Gerwig, "Lady Bird" -- Snub

While Greta Gerwig’s “Lady Bird” snagged nominations in the Best Screenplay, Best Actress and Best Picture categories, the director herself was shut out. In fact, not a single woman was nominated in the director category. Do Golden Globes voters think "Lady Bird" directed itself?

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" -- Surprise

This Amazon original series from Amy Sherman-Palladino has definitely been a treat for fans and critics hoping to see something new and different from the "Gilmore Girls" showrunner. But being ranked among “Black-ish,” ” “Master of None,” “SMILF” and the returned “Will & Grace" for top TV comedy/musical is a pretty big shock for a brand-new series.

"SMILF" -- Surprise

Speaking of new shows: this freshman comedy snuck up on voters thanks to the charm of Frankie Shaw as a Boston single mom.

"Veep" -- Snub

Where the heck was "Veep"? The Globes treated the awards-show darling like a second-in-command.

“Get Out” -- Snub

It received two nominations for Best Actor and Best Picture — Comedy or Musical, but nothing for Jordan Peele's directing or screenplay.

Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver” -- Surprise

Despite big box-office success and unexpected summer magic, no one thought Edgar Wright’s heist film had the gas to make it to awards season — even the iPod wearing, street-dancing, mostly mute titular character played by Ansel Elgort. But he may be singing a winners tune in January.

"The Leisure Seeker"/Helen Mirren -- Surprise

HUH?

“Call Me by Your Name” -- Snub

Once again, “Call Me by Your Name” was a sure bet for a Best Screenplay Nomination along with “Lady Bird” and “Three Billboards,” but “The Post” and “Molly’s Game” slid in instead. The screenplay has received acclaim since it premiered at the 2017 Sundance Film Festival and has enchanted people all over the world, which is why it’s such a surprise that it received no nomination.

Katherine Langford, “13 Reasons Why” -- Surprise

This endearing and occasionally controversial series about teen suicide has an incredibly strong ensemble (don’t get us started on Michele Selene Ang as the Type A Courtney Crimsen), but it’s mostly a showcase for its terribly troubled protagonist Clay, played by Dylan Minnette. Imagine our pleasant surprise, then, to see Katherine Langford — the show’s posthumous narrator and subsequent suicide victim — get recognized for her strong seres guidance and flashback work.

Tiffany Haddish, "Girls Trip" -- Snub

Who isn’t rooting for this magical underdog? Haddish slayed her “SNL” turn and won over the New York Film Critics to take their best supporting actress prize for “Girls Trip.” It’s disappointing not to see her run-up to Academy Award nominations extended, but we always have Oscars and SAG.

Carrie Coon, “The Leftovers” -- Snub

Damon Lindelof and Tom Perrota’s beautiful three-season meditation on life, purgatory and abandonment was criminally underrated during its run, so snubbing Coon doesn’t exactly surprise us. But the work she did in the final season, particularly the final episode, felt like a deserved reckoning to her talents. Clearly not. This is one she’ll have to win in the hereafter.

Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World” -- Surprise

Not many have seen the film, which booted Kevin Spacey and replaced Christopher Plummer — but director Ridley Scott still promised to finish it in time for its Christmas release. It’s not too surprising Michelle Williams received a nomination for the movie — it’s just surprising she received one for this one over her role in “The Greatest Showman.”

Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick” -- Snub

Michael Showalter’s charming romantic, um, medical drama accomplishes a lot: boy meets girl, arranged Pakistani marriages get In the way, mystery illness and comas do as well, standup comedy is somehow a major thread. All of the hat-wearing seemed balanced, though, by the sure-footed Souther grit of Hunter’s concerned mom. More like The Big Snub.

Hong Chau, "Downsizing" -- Surprise

Hong Chau may have been the best part of “Downsizing,” but it’s still a surprise that the movie got any kind of nomination. Especially because she took the place of Holly Hunter in “The Big Sick,” which was an obvious prediction for most.

Julia Louis-Dryfus, "Veep" -- Snub

Julia, Julia. Where for art thou, Julia? Not only was "Veep" knocked out of the game this year, but its beloved leading lady didn't get the attention she usually does for her one-of-a-kind comedic chops

Frankie Shaw, "SMILF" -- Surprise

Hey, if "SMILF" itself is in, then Frankie Shaw deserves to be in too. But since the show's addition to the line-up was out of left field, then Shaw's was definitely a shocker.

Winona Ryder, "Stranger Things" -- Snub

Winona Ryder's performance in the sophomore season of the Netflix hit was totally stirring. But stranger things have happened than electrifying acting being ignored by an award show. Even if the actress was up for the same statue the previous year.

Joseph Fiennes, "The Handmaid's Tale" -- Snub

There's no denying Elisabeth Moss was the absolute best part of the first season of Hulu's thrilling drama. But that doesn't mean Joseph Fiennes didn't deserve a nod for the part he played in amping up the creepy factor in the series' dystopian future.

Freddie Highmore, "The Good Doctor" -- Surprise

"The Good Doctor" has dominated Nielsen ratings in the key demo since it premiered this fall. But it was surprising to see the drama has also struck enough of a cord with HFPA to earn leading actor Freddie Highmore some Globes love. Enjoy your very first nom, Highmore.

“Transparent” -- Snub

"Transparent" has been a reliable at the Globes since earning a win for the series and its star, Jeffrey Tambor, in its first season, and has been included in the noms every season since. This year, things took a turn and the snub might be related to the sexual misconduct accusations posed against Tambor.

Geoffrey Rush, "Genius" -- Surprise

Geoffrey Rush grabbed a nod for his performance in Nat Geo’s anthology series "Genius," which is a pretty big shock, considering the allegations of “inappropriate behavior” during an Australian play back in 2015 that recently emerged against the actor.

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The Globes keep it weird, again

The 2018 Golden Glob nominations were announced on Monday and among the many shoo-ins and usual suspects were some serious upsets and players that came out of left field. Here are the biggest snubs and surprises this season.

Steve Pond, awards editor at TheWrap, is also author of the L.A. Times bestseller The Big Show. He has been covering entertainment for more than two decades, and is the industry's most knowledgeable Academy Awards prognosticator.