It’s been awesome receiving emails from switched on DT coaches who are keen to have a bit of a say. tbetta sends us this one about some ‘smokies’ who he has on his radar.

The difference between a good team and a great team can be just one or two players. Consider 2010. Any team without Barlow or Podsiadly or both was significantly disadvantaged, either by not selecting them at all, or having to use a trade to bring them in. Same goes for Beau Waters – a discount-priced backman who scored as a premium. The question is, who will be the Barlows and Waters of 2011, and how can we predict who they will be?

A popular technique is to look at DT like the stock market. Traders make a profit by buying stock that will increase in price, and often selling this stock. Same thing applies with fantasy. If you know a player has a high chance of increasing in price, or is currently undervalued, then these are the players that you should be buying. It all comes down to making your team as valuable as possible, for the least possible cost.

So if you have knowledge that a player has been playing below his ability and therefore is underpriced, then buy. If you see a discounted player that you are certain will score well, then buy. Simple.

But who are these players in 2010?

We already know about players like Saint Nick, who is undervalued due to an injury affected year. Andy Otten, whose situation has serious similarities to Waters, is heavily discounted after not appearing at all in 2010. Adcock, Harris, Knights, Morton, all fall under these categories. But that’s the problem, everyone knows this. Between the improved Stats Centre, DT Talk, Fanplanner and The Prospectus, none of these players slip through the cracks. And that is why every great team this year will have Mzungu. And Krakouer. And… You get the point.

But lately the question I’ve really been asking myself is, what’s the difference between a great team and an epic team?

It’s your unique picks. The players you have, but no one else does. If one of your ‘Smokies’ has a break-out year, that’s one advantage you have gained over every other fantasy coach. Which brings me to the point – who could have that breakout year for you? Which players can take you one step closer to that car? Here are a few players that I feel can have a break-out year, and my reasoning for thinking so.

David Zaharakis ESS

There has been a bit of coverage about him, but if you pick him, he’ll still be reasonably unique due to his pricetag. He is awkwardly priced at $295,500 being a mid-pricer without a discount. According to reports, he has bulked up and improved his tank, which can only be helpful to his scores. His real value comes in his new midfield role, as Hird singled out in a press-conference, which should boost his scores even further than the 71.1 average he posted last year. And the exciting thing is, he fits the heralded Third-Year Rule perfectly, and is on the brink of a break-out season if the hype is to be believed.

Trent Dennis-Lane SYD

I’m a bit angry that there was a huge report about this guy because I’ve been keen on him since the beginning of last year when he shone in an intra-club match. He was on track for a round 1 debut until he injured his knee, but still ended up playing 8 games at the end of last season at a clip of 61.1 per game. Modest returns, but that’s to be expected from a forward-line rookie coming off an injury. In buoying news, he has put on a few kilos onto his slight frame while not missing a session all pre-season, and rewarded himself with 7 goals in the intra-club this year. I’m still excited this season after seeing his price ($228,000 after a small discount) because he didn’t reach his potential at all last year. His last two games of 92 and 81 showed he was starting to get there, and should resume in round 1 where he left off. Could be a good mid-priced option in a thin forward line, will be watching his nab cup closely.

Luke Shuey WCE

Shuey has been burning up the training track this off-season, and is set to play to his potential in hopefully what will be his first full AFL season. A bad luck story so far both on and off the field so far, he broke a finger in pre-season, but this shouldn’t affect his season according to the eagles’ fitness staff. His dream team value is increased due to his discounted price of $280,300 at an average of 75 over 6 games last season. This is one guy the eagles expect to start firing as soon as he’s healthy, but that’s the problem – will he stay injury free or will his bad luck continue? I think he’ll average 80-plus in the young Eagles midfield and rise in price to at least $330,000.

Kyle Cheney HAW

Very interested to see if this guy plays in 2011, because if he does, it’s easy money. For those who remember, he was a popular mid-year downgrade option in 2009 playing for Melbourne. He averaged a decent 62.4 (for a rookie with bottom-placed Dees) but only played 2 games last year after being out of favour with coach Dean Bailey. Moved to Hawthorn in the off-season in an exchange of late picks and is looking to revive his career, with a Campbell Brown role earmarked. His nab cup was average, playing a SC-style handball-heavy game (well, games) in the young Hawks defence. I’m interested to see if he gets a game once all the senior players are back as he is heavily discounted at $159,900 and can only increase in price from there.

David Mackay ADE

Mackay is one player I earmarked for a big 2010, thinking he’d fall in line with the Third-Year Rule. Averaged 51 in 2008, then 71 in ’09, it made sense that the only way to go was up. But unfortunately this coincided with Adelaide’s slide down the ladder and he was only able to manage 64.4 over 16 games (including an ugly 12 point game due to injury). He did have two separate injuries though, a groin problem early on then a sprained ankle later in the season. I still feel like when fit, this guy is all class and I’m backing him for big increase in scoring. His huge 130 in 2009 shows he can post big scores when he puts it all together. Will push for an 80 average and make you some cash if he is your unique pick.

Callan Ward WB

Ward is overdue for his breakout year. It should have been last year, but missed a huge chunk of the year with a groin problem (apparently not Osteitis Pubis according to WB medical staff and only a two week problem, which actually turned out to be OP and be a 13 game issue). His 2009 scores showed promise for a big year, averaging 70.3 over 19 games in the Bulldog’s strong midfield. I can only see this guy getting better, and he reminds me of a younger Higgins, or Robbie Gray – very classy and clever. But hopefully he can finish 2011 without the continued injury concerns that those guys have had. In a Bulldogs outfit looking to promote youth this year, I think he can push upward of 75 an become DT relevant again.

These are just some players that can have that big breakout season in DT this year. Scour the reports, stalk the pre-season games, and find your unique pick that can give you that edge. It could be the difference between a great team, and an epic team.

Same here… At the moment he’s out (just coz i can’t fit him), but I dare say he’ll make it back in…

My other big smokey is Ben McEvoy (currently in, though he’s also been out a few times)… Nothing like a weird Ruck to set you apart from every other team… Anyone else sharing him? Beginning to feel a bit lonely, which is concerning – you want a smokey to be unpopular so that it’s unique, but not so unpopular that you feel like an idiot for picking him…

To go for the car, you really have to pick at least one mid-price breakout player. If you don’t, you might do well but you won’t win. But you got to ask yourself if you’re picking someone you really think will be a keeper or just someone you hope will go up in price? If it’s just to go up in price, you’re almost certainly better with a rookie unless someone’s going to average 80+ and make over 100k for you.

I can believe Zaharakis will increase his average this season. Do people really believe he’s going to become a gun averaging 90+, just because he’ll have more midfield time? He’s priced at an average of 71. Even if he averages 80 or 85, you still need to use a trade on him and he won’t make much money.

I have Ward locked- but there’s every sign (especially his return in the finals last year) that he will become a keeper this year.

I’ve got him…but depends on whether Brock McLean gets the nod before him for rnd 1.

Also, they generally play him as a tagger, though didnt in the NAB cup on weekend, hence his higher DT scores. If he does get a guernsey rnd 1, hoping Ratten lets him loose rather than destroying him like he did Carazzo last year with tagging duties.

Yeah, I agree. Though I can’t seem to fit him in… He is money in the bank at $249,200 most likely.

Nice write-up, Warnie. Cheers. I particularly liked your note about ‘the difference can be just one or two players’, which is spot on – ’tis those unique picks that make or break a great or epic season.

i agree with Matty – i think he is being primed for Lynch’s old job but he played so well in the nab cup that Wilson’s job security is an issue. DPP is very handy and at a discount, should definitely by considered, perhaps in a side with Gilbert? Will watch his nab cup to see if he and Lynch can play in the same side, but still dont think he’ll increase on his 75 avg posted last year.

Strongly considering McGlynn as he will be a unique selection and think he is ready for a big season. Only trouble is his price as it would be a big risk when players like O’Keefe and Rioli are in a similar range and are likely to be more consistent.

Fyfe is set to have a big year I think. He’s gained a few k’s and like you say, he has been training with the mids. Should be a stronger and fitter player this year, able to keep up and follow the ball.

If you have to choose between Dennis Lane and Fyfe I would go Fyfe, but in 2009 Dennis lane’s last year at Subi he was the leading goal scorer, which is no mean feat for a small forward, has experniece against bigger bodies (in the WAFL) and looked good the games he played last season.

Deffinite smokie for this season. I had him in my team last year before round 1, traded him out before round 1 started because he wasnt going to play and then picked him up after his 2 games, provided some good cover late. For that price there is are some other options Knights lock, Petrie lock and Roughead big gamble?

I like the look of Callan Ward and I think he is the best Mid-priced mid. Therefore, he is in my team. However I also have Mathew Boyd in my mids. Is it too risky with byes to have 2 bullies players in the mids?

Considered Butler and Sheppard from the eagles but went with Shuey – Butler very injury prone and a risk, although huge upside as he’ll definitely increase in price if he stays fit, and Sheppard possibly a year away from having a breakout season.

He will make you some money but I went with cox and sandi, thinking of trading sandi for fraser but will then I will have to use a trade later to get the big desert back, so i am going with the rucks where you wont have to do anything all season and hope the 2 rookie bench positions play enough to cover byes. go 2 of the three Cox, Ryder and Sandi.

Yeah, spend that cap you have leftover!!! And don’t listen to Reynolds!!!!!!!!!

In ur backs, Grimes, Adcock and Otten are pretty risky injury wise, I’d upgrade one of them.
Mids are good. if u need to save money after other upgrades, u could look for cheaper options to Bartel or Monty, eg. Sam Mitchell., but only if u need the cash.
Ruck, upgrade Jacobs.
Forwards, are good, I’d prefer Green to Sylvia, more durable, but Sylvia might be worth the risk…

Spending that amount (200k-350k) of money on a “hunch” is just crazy
The way i see it is like this. You spend say 295k on Zaha who last year averaged 71 (64 the year before). Say He moves into the mid field and gets more of the ball, lets say he even lifts his average to 80, ill even be very generous and say 85.

That will increase his value maybe 50k where he will then plateau. So you now have a guy who is averaging a nice 85 and has netted you 50k. But when it comes down to it i dont want 85s i want 110s but i cant get those 480k players because my mids have not made me the money.

Your MUCH better of buying a Tzunga who might not average the 85 but should get you 70. So in the early stages your 15 points out of pocket, but your 185k in the black. Now whats going to happen is if Tzunga stays on the park he is going to increase and do so at a rapid rate. He will eventually get you to 300k so on top of the 185k you have saved he has made you a further 200, meaning that 110k montagna is only costing 100k.

I know this is all DT 101 but i thought i would get it out there for maybe new people. Unless you are 100% positive that you are going to get a keeper (maybe maybe Knights as a 7th forward) then you are wasting your money. Research a better rookie, sacrifice the early points and scary Thursday night selections and come round 8 when you have montagna and ablett in your side you will know u have done the right thing.

I tend to agree with your point, however for the sake of people that are considering mid-pricers, you need to understand they are being optimistic about the players potential (I think most in this article are jokes though that will fall victim to what you just said). Take for example Sam Gilbert, who in his third year on the St Kilda list played 16 regular season games for a DT avg of 50. The very next year he played 19 regular season games for an average of 89. A MASSIVE jump of 39 points, which then led to his dominant season last year, with a 93 average, and playing every game I think.

Using your example of Zaharakis:

1. This is his third year on the Essendon list.
2. He averaged much higher than Gilbert did before his breakout year (even with Knights-inflicted limited game-time)
3. He looks set to have a significant role change to the point-dominant position of midfield, with more game time
4. Hird wants his meat in and around his mouth

So why couldn’t Zaharakis then bump up his average to 90?? In which case for the price of 295k, and the option of keeping him in the FWDs, I would keep him all season without a second thought (barring injury).

Everyone is always comparing the value of mid-pricers vs the value of rookies and not the value of mid-pricers vs the value of premiums. Yes a rookie will always be more valuable than a mid-pricer but a mid-pricer can be much more valuable than a premium.
What would you choose between a 320k player that averages 90 and a 400k player that averages 95 ?
I choose the first one and that’s what I look for in my mid-pricers : players who have already proven and for whom the only way is up. I believe that picking this year players like Hannebery or Sidebottom doesn’t involve any risks and can bring you much more money than a premium.

i agree with everything you have said here – mid-pricers are a high risk approach. But if you can pick one that during the year becomes a premium, that’s such an advantage. The only problem with what you have said is that if you go the Guns and Rookies approach, as most will, not every rookie will increase like Mzungu (probably) will. with a G&R approach you’ll have 15ish Guns and that leaves 18 rookies – good luck picking the best 18 rookies of the year before round 1.

The advantage of having one or two midpricers is that if it busts, you can trade them out to a downgrade target midyear, and upgrade one of the rookies on your bench. So either way, you’ll be upgrading to a premium at some point, but if you have a mid-pricer in there, you can possibly get two.

oh for sure (if by experienced but underpriced mids you mean krakouer, harris, otten, etc) and most teams will follow that structure. But there is a logic that paying slightly more for a mid-pricer can be worth it – extra job security (than say, your 14th rookie) and less variation in what they can score (if you choose right , the midpricer should score similarly or higher, whereas a rookie can score like Pods or like Griffiths).

Depends which you’d rather, or looking at it another way, which approach is more risky.

Orb’s (or is it Orbs’s?) point is correct. A Rookie starting at $100k who averages 70 will make you more money than a Zaharakis who averages mid-80s. Last year after Round One, the best value for money picks were Barlow, Howlett, Shuey, Bastinac, Banfield, SIlvani, Banner, Kayler-THomson, Warnock, so as long as you know a rookie will play enough games, they are definitely easy money.

Unless you know you have this year’s Rischitelli, don’t risk a mid-price player.

What are people’s thoughts on starting with BOYD as most expensive midfielder and trading up to SWAN sometime after the Pies first bye? This allows me to play a Collingwood midfielder with plenty of ‘upside’ (most likely SIDEBOTTOM, but perhaps THOMAS) who could either then be traded for SWAN or kept (with SWAN replacing a different ‘improved’ midfielder). This is based upon SWAN having high early breakevens and therefore, a price drop. With GODDARD, BOYD and CHAPMAN in my team at the moment there are plenty of Captain options (especially with a Carlton midfielder and the partial lockout loophole).

I liked what i read by a port supporter re Swan on FF….
Swanny will probably score 150 against us in rnd 1.
IF, he drops in value i dare say it wont be much- I made the mistake of not starting him lasy year, not again!
1st 2 for me are Swan & Boyd!
Then its just a matter of who to choose as capt in rnds when both are playing, but Boyd is playing at Etihaad….

Courtesy of jim cowski……

go boyd mate.
he loves etihad stadium.

here are his scores from last year when playing there- 128, 154, 108, 75, 143, 116, 142, 117, 145, 112, 117.

if i remember correctly, the doggies are playing there 13 times this year.- JUMP ON.

Could be, Jim. I was thinking the same thing about the Crow’s Brodie Martin until I realised that for $70k less I could lock in D Swallow and hope for a similar output (same same for D Harris). I think there are just too many cheap, high quality GC mids (rookies and ‘matures’ alike, although count A Krakour too) who are close to guaranteed of multimple games to take a punt on midfield midpricers. Forwards and defenders I can understand, but why take the risk in the middle? Taking a punt on an ‘almost’ premium (like Jack or Thomas) seems to me to have much, much more upside and waaay less risk.

For all those people picking Liam Anthony, don’t forget about another Kanga player instead, Andrew Swallow this guy will be avg. Joel Selwood numbers if he was in a better team. A smokey pick; or is he a unique pick?

I think A.Swallow would be more of a unique pick as it seems many are going the discounted L.Anthony.
But he could also certainly fit in the “smokie,” category too!
I’m keen on having 1 premium per bye in my mids, so ATM, I’m itching to see how young Atley goes in the preseason!
Hopefully my strategy of 1 premium per bye, isn’t a case of, “biting my nose to spite my face!”

Sorry buddy, e.g no Montags & Boyd as both share rnd 4 bye, ideally I think I want 1 player per bye, not just premium.
Although I’m pretty certain both Harris & Swallow will start on my mid bench for rnd 1.

gotcha – that means having Goddard and Adcock (count as a premium?) isn’t so hot, and Riewoldt and J. Brown will hurt. Ive been limiting it to one premium per team in each position, and just left the multiples because i figure it’ll affect everyone

Yeah….ABSOLUTELY!!! Hence biting my nose…………….
BUT nothing is set in stone just yet!
Sooooo many different strategies that can ALL work imho.
And to think I wasn’t looking forward to DT2011……pffft……quite the opposite….loving the permutations & combinations haha.

Yeah i’ll make up my mind on Anthony vs. Swallow probably in the next few games
One player per line definitely, but think about this, you can also go Swan & Pendles and trade one out in the Pies bye round giving you upgrade/downgrade options because by round 7 you’ll know if your in the running for the car or not, then you could concentrate on a leauge win instead.
Note: Don’t forget Richardson this weekend.

Looking forward to round 1 just to see your team and strategy (i’m playing you in the DT Vic leauge). This year is going to mess with not only with people’s team but there thoughts. Right now my team is balanced enough so that i’ll only miss three players per round, i haven’t once posted my team because i know what i want because of the strategy i’m going for (i don’t want anyone to throw me off track so to speak). Still taking in the good discussion on certain players though.

John Anthony is not a bad option at his price (bit cheaper than zaha or morton $218,900), then you have Petterd, Gray and Danger in the range you’re talking about. Problem is, many players around this price have injury concerns, so it’s always a risk. I like zaha (obviously) because his value is in a role change which will reap more points, not in the fact that he’s discounted due to injury (as Knights, Gray, Petterd, etc are). Same with Anthony, his team change is the reason why he’ll increase in price and give good returns this year.

Could be a good choice. It seems Ratts is keen to keep him there so I’ll be keeping an eye on him.
Only consideration revolves around his position. As a backman listed as a forward in DT/SC, are there any similarly priced forwards who have the potential to produce consistently better scores over the season?

@EMM, oh ok cool…Go DT Vic!
That’s the problem, being a DT tragic, *sigh* I’ve tried a few different strategies, but no closer to settling on which one.
And I’m “old school,” I see things best with pen & paper….. you should see the mess in my room!!!

Yeah, i’ve been through the prospectus 4 times now just writting down player’s names. I messed up big time last year so i’m putting more effort in. I’ve said to myself though i’m leaving my team as is (only thinking about players), no changes until after the pre-season games are all over. Playing MvC3 until I get back into full footy mode :)

I think a couple of good smokies/mid priced players in your team gives you a massive advantage for a couple of reasons.

1. The first and best reason is that they are going to play every game (or thereabouts)

2. You don’t need to trade, if they reach that desired extra 10-20 on they stay put.

It is very hard to have all your rookies playing from round 1 onwards and have their cash rise significantly enough to get value out of them early. Even with GC in this year how do we know that they won’t rotate their entire list throughout the season to see who can cut it at AFL level. What have they got to lose? There are not any great expectations for them anyway.

How many people had rookies in their list sit on the pine for significant lengths of time in 10′ Shuey, Banner, JKT etc. All had good pre-seasons, all had pretty good JS (except JKT) yet missed massive chunks of the season.

It sucks trading out an underperming star who is losing you cash, but it sucks even harder replacing a rookie who hasn’t even had ONE price change!

I am looking at discards from teams that were only dropped/left due to lack of opportunity or not fittign the ‘structure’.

Good example of this (as proven last night) is Ryan Gamble. Presented well, accurate boot and plenty of DT points to match. Only delisted due to ‘structure’ so saints have picked up a late round draft bargain.

Nathan Djerkurra is another who should perform well as a he was a fringe Geelong player that just couldn’t crack into an elite midfield. Don’t think I can squeeze him in, but if he performs well then that may force my hand…

mmm, i wouldnt have sidebottom AND palmer, two mid-pricers in your midfield. More than ever this year, you are going to need rookies in your mids for DPP and having two mid-pricers is just too much. If you are going to pick a mid-pricer, pick him with a view to keep, and upgrade your rookies instead. Or take advantage of a cash cow and upgrade your mid-pricer to someone like Swan or Ablett.

DPP means Dual Position Player, ie Goddard (DEF and MID). If you had Goddard in your Backs and Gibbs (also DEF, MID Dual Position) you could sub these players through to cover injuries, byes or structure.

Out of those three, i’d be going Sidebottom IF you don’t already have Swan.