Partial Election Results for 13 Governorates Released by IHEC

After a good deal of dithering, including the release of erroneous numbers and a subsequent withdrawal, IHEC has now made available partial results for 13 governorates. This material has the advantage in that it is complete and not limited to the numbers of the front-runners only, thereby enabling an evaluation of changes in percentages since the local elections last year, as well as analyses of intra-list trends. For Basra and Anbar, released today in the evening, the material is quite substantial as well, with more than 50% of the votes counted… Full story here.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, 14 March 2010 18:37 at 18:37 and is filed under Iraq's 2010 parliamentary election.
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8 Responses to “Partial Election Results for 13 Governorates Released by IHEC”

bbsaid

In 05 the UIA polled 87% in Maysan.
In this election the INA plus Maliki polls 88%, virtually no differenence except that Maliki’s party takes 38% off the old UIA. Considering that Maliki’s Dawa only held 13 seats in the old UIA caucus, this is a major win for SOL.

Also, Allawi’s party polled 4.3 in 05 and 5% here. A small increase.

If these numbers are consistent the ISCI/Badr is being routed and the Sadrists are improving their position relative to ISCI but that’s about all. Quite a defeat for the religious parties, but they still have the potential to play “spoiler” roles.

Reidar Vissersaid

But you chose Maysan, which I think you Australians would refer to as “the outback”. On the other hand, compared with 2005, Iraqiyya has made great progress is places like Babel, Wasit, Baghdad and even Muthanna. They are however apparently at a standstill in Basra which is a bad sign for them.

The Jan 2009 local elections is a useful point of comparison because it gives us the opportunity to track SLA-INA dynamics during 2009, which is not possible by relying on UIA statistics from 2005 (which even in the disaggregated format comes with plenty of caveats because of the closed-list system).

The latest reports from Baghdad (60% of the vote counted) suggest Maliki’s lead has slipped a bit there, putting him on 35%, Allawi 315 and INA 22%. For the country as a whole, combined with the other data that has been released so far (on a count ranging from 15% of vote in ninewa to 67% in wasit), I estimate: Allawi 90 seats, Maliki 84 seats, INA 65 seats, Kurdistani List 36 seats, Goran 10 seats, Tawafuq might make 10, with 30 other seats split between, minorities, Unity of Iraq, the Islamic Kurdish parties and other small parties. I would put an uncertainty of at least +/- 5 seats into the tallies for the main parties (particularly as its based on, for example, only 15% of the votes for Ninewa), so the difference between Maliki and Allawi is still within the margin of error.

Reidar Vissersaid

Thanks Justin, it appears new numbers are coming out from Baghdad as we speak so very soon we can have estimates based on 66% of the vote nationwide. In general, I do think it is worth waiting for the IHEC lists even if they take a while to materialise. In contrast to the media reports that only list the front-runners and a few others, they give the full picture and the correct percentages. Today I updated the article at http://www.historiae.org/IHEC.asp with newly released IHEC figures to replace the four governorates that were based on Iraqi state television, and in some of the governorates the change was a couple of percent, which could be significant.

bbsaid

Yes, in Babel and Muthanna Iraqiyya has improved by about 4% on 2005.But not in Baghdad! On present figures the 2005 Accord+Hiwar+Allawi vote has dropped from 36.3% to 26%.

Big winner in Baghdad appears to be Maliki who has on the face of it grabbed a fair slice of the 05 Accord/Allawi/Hiwar vote.

In 2010 the UIA got 56.5% compared with 66% at the moment split 39/27 between Maliki and INA. Ergo Maliki so far has taken more than half the old UIA vote and 10% of old Accord/Allawi/Hiwar vote.

Very much caution against using the provincial elections as the comparison because national elections are fought on different issues than state elections – for eg national security is a much bigger issue for voters. Also, because in the main the closed/open list factor only affects choices within the lists, not between them.

btw Maysan=outback is very good! Goes for Dhi Kar too. I loved Rory Stewart’s book and recommend it to anyone who hasn’t read it.

Reidar Vissersaid

Tawafuq (“Accord”) has nothing to do with Iraqiyya. Tawafuq is Tawafuq. In the 18%-count for Baghdad it had no more than 1.5 percent, but its Sunni electorate is strongly enclave-based and its share may go up as more votes are counted.

Reidar, I agree it’s worth waiting for the IHEC. Frustratingly its website seems to be down at the moment – is anyone else having any luck accessing it? I’m resisting modifying my model with the new partial results now beginning to appear in the Iraqi media (e.g. Iraqiya TV is clearly missing info on the Kurds in second place in its stated results for 62% of the vote in Ninewah which puts: Allawi 363,435 votes; Tawafuq 2nd with 36,968 votes, INA third with 21760)

Reidar Vissersaid

IHEC was down and I thought they were adding new data but it still had the same old lists when it came online again. For what it may be worth, rates of counting were reported by IHEC at a press conference today as follows (average reported at 66%), with promises of an 80% partial result tomorrow.