Pollster predicts more Democrats than Republicans will sit out this election

Associated Press photosPresident Barack Obama, left, talks to supporters during a campaign rally at Colorado College in Colorado Springs, Colo., while his Republican opponent Mitt Romney is seen leaving a finance event on the Upper East Side of Manhattan.

That was one finding of a poll of non-voters released Wednesday by Suffolk University and USA Today. While most political polls try to survey as many registered voters as possible, this one focused on the approximately 40 percent of Americans – around 90 million people, according to the pollsters - who do not plan to cast a ballot in November.

Among those who have not registered to vote, 26 percent said they were too busy or did not have time. Another 12 percent believed their vote does not matter, and another 10 percent each said they were uninterested in politics or “just don’t want to” vote.

There was also dissatisfaction with the political process. Just under one-third of those polled felt the Democratic and Republican parties do a good job of representing America’s political views, while more than half believed a third party or multiple parties were necessary.

“These people are not voting because that’s their way of making a statement about the process,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “You can feel the disconnect of these voters who by their own admission aren’t connected, aren’t informed, aren’t voting.”

Paleologos said the poll did find demographic trends among those who are less likely to vote. “The respondents are younger, they are higher minority, they are lower income and less educated and fairly religious,” he said. “In many cases, they were adversely impacted in the last four years beyond what the normal setback is for people.”

More than half (58 percent) believe politics do make a difference in their lives, and 79 percent believe the federal government is important to their lives. But 59 percent believe nothing ever gets done in politics, and 54 percent believe politics is corrupt. The poll found that 61 percent could not name Joe Biden as the vice president.

Many respondents were disaffected Democrats. Though 31 percent of respondents were not registered to vote, 30 percent were registered Democrats and just 14 percent were registered Republicans. (Ideologically, 34 percent of the voters described themselves as moderate, and the rest were evenly split between conservative and liberal.)

Democratic President Barack Obama had a strong edge among respondents. Among unregistered voters, Obama would get support from 43 percent, compared to 23 percent for a third party and 14 percent for Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Among registered voters, Obama would get 43 percent compared to 20 percent for Romney and 18 percent for a third party.

Paleologos said that is good news and bad news for Obama. The good news for the president is that he does not have to convince people to favor him over Romney. The bad news is many of his potential supporters simply won’t turn out. “There are more Democrats willing to walk away from this election than Republicans and independents,” Paleologos said.

The poll of 800 likely non-voters was conducted July 30-Aug. 8 and has a margin of error of 3.47 percent.

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