000
FXUS61 KCTP 022155
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
555 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
ON MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...GUSTY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY
AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN. THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS WETTER AS THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH LIFTS BACK
INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AREAS OF HIGH BASED CU...WILL LIFT/TRANSITION INTO A 2-4 HOUR
PERIOD OF ALTO CU ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN
MOST AREAS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
CFRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP BLYR FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING AND
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SW WINDS TO AROUND 10 KTS WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
THE WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID
60S.
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD SNEAK INTO OUR
FAR NW ZONES TWD 12Z MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SPC DAY TWO OUTLOOK PLACES ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE PART OF OUR CWA
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE MONDAY. THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMING
OF THE CFRONTAL PASSAGE WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST CAPES IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE PER THE LATEST SREF...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY
WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG...AND WELL-ALIGNED -06 KM BULK SHEAR
INCREASING FROM 25-35 KTS DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TO 40-50 KTS
INVOF OF THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MESOSCALE UVVEL CLOSE
TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT TO SEE ONE OR MORE BKN TSRA LINES CONTAINING ENHANCED BOWS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AS DCAPES
SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH AND LCL/S AOA 1KM AGL IN MOST PLACES.
TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN THE U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY REGION. READINGS COULD
TOUCH 90F IN THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE STORMS MOVE
DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WELL DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/LOWER CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH
EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL DRAG THE BEFORE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO STALL ALONG
THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD NOT ONLY ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AS A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY FORMS
THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE MOVED THE
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH SO THE QUESTION REMAINS IF IT WILL FORM
HERE OR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS THE EVENT MOVES CLOSER.
HOWEVER THE LOW SITTING OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA WILL KEEP
TUMULTUOUS WEATHER IN THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR NORMAL IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE TRENDING COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN LOCALIZED FOG/BR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AIRSPACE
WHERE THE BLYR MAY BECOME DECOUPLED TOWARD DAYBREAK. KEPT LLWS AT
BFD 06-12Z MON AS 40-50KT SWLY LLJ PRECEDES COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER MI.
FOR MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE AIRSPACE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE CFROPA AND A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH BRIEF IFR VSBY IN +RA
AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA 40KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN AIRSPACE WITH
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE.
WED-FRI...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR VIS IN ISOLD-SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON
TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...STEINBUGL