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Tuesday, May 23, 2017

The Trump administration has released its first full budget proposal
for the federal government, including NASA.While many science programs throughout many agencies face recommended
cuts (see these analyses by the journals Science
and Nature),
NASA’s science programs generally fared well.The Planetary Science program fares particularly well.Several satellite missions and research
programs in the Earth Sciences program that focus on climate change and carbon
monitoring, by contrast, face termination.NASA’s Astrophysics (including the James Webb Space Telescope) and
Heliophysics programs are projected to have flat budgets into the future.

Past and proposed spending for NASA science programs. The Planetary Science program is the only program proposed to receive a major increase.

For fans of planetary exploration, I think it’s time to pop the
champagne.The proposed budget takes the
NASA program to new spending heights.While much of the proposed Trump budget seems likely to get mauled by
Congress, the latter’s strong support for the planetary program implies that
this program’s proposed increase may become reality.

The budget documents provide two sets of numbers.The first, and most important, are specific
requested amounts for Congress to approve for the Fiscal Year 2018, which
starts October 1, 2017.The second set
of numbers are projected notional budgets for FY19 to FY22.This provide guidance for future years and is
important because NASA’s managers cannot plan programs that aren’t projected to
be funded in the out years.

Past and proposed budgets for the planetary science programs that develop and operate missions. It is normal for budget lines to wax and wane as the development of individual missions ramp up their spending leading to launch followed by a ramp down as another program's missions approaches peak funding. In the planning period, Mars program funding ramps down as the 2020 rover development completes followed by an increase to support a follow on mission. The Discovery program ramps up to support development of the Lucy and Psyche missions with the start of a second ramp for a follow on mission. The New Frontiers program ramps down following the launch of the OSIRIS-REx mission followed by a ramp up for a new mission. The Outer Planets and Ocean Worlds program, which is dominated by spending to develop the Europa Clipper mission is project to have erratic swings not explained in the budget documents.

Here are some of the highlights of the proposed Planetary Science
budget:

Every single mission in flight that is expected to still be operating
next year (rest in peace Cassini and Dawn) is funded for the next year.Four missions are projected to remain funded
for a further five years: the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, the Mars
Reconnaissance Orbiter, the OSIRIS-REx asteroid sample return spacecraft, and
the Curiosity rover.The Juno mission is
projected to be funded through 2020, which would allow the mission to complete most
of its originally planned orbits.The
New Horizon mission is funded through its encounter with the small Kuiper Belt
object, 2014 MU69 in 2019.However, the
Opportunity rover is forecasted to be funded only through 2018 and the Mars
Odyssey Orbiter through 2019.The budget
documents don’t give an explanation for the limited funding for these two
missions; perhaps this is an expectation that these aged craft will not live
forever.

All mission currently in development are funded including the Mars 2020
rover, the Europa Clipper mission, and three Discovery missions: the InSight
Mars geophysics station and the Lucy and Psyche asteroid missions.Funding is projected to develop the next New
Frontiers mission to be selected in late 2018 or 2019 and launched in the
mid-2020s.

The projected budget shows funding for NASA to select and begin development
of the next Discovery mission after the Lucy and Psyche missions are
launched.Given the timing of the
selection in the early 2020s, launch would likely be in the mid-2020s.The budget request also forecast the start of
development of a Mars mission that seems likely to launch in the
mid-2020s.While the budget document is
silent on the nature of this mission, NASA has said that it would like to fly a
new orbiter to replace the venerable Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.

If you want to look for disappointing news in the proposed planetary
budget, I found two.The document projects
a funding ramp for the Europa Clipper mission that would enable a launch in the
mid- to late-2020s.This is in direct
conflict with Congress’ stated goal that the mission should launch by 2022.The requested funding for FY18 would support
the 2022 launch.The key will be whether
funding on follow on years is greater than that projected in the budget
document.For example, the projected
spending in FY19 is $303 million versus $580 million needed to launch in 2022.

The other potentially disappointing news is that the budget request
explicitly rules out starting development of the congressionally mandated
Europa lander, which would follow the Europa Clipper mission.

To meet Congress’ stated goals for the Europa Clipper and lander
missions, the planetary science budget would need to grow substantially
starting in fiscal year 2019, or other missions within this budget would have
to be cut.

A look at the larger federal budget situation does suggest a problem
with the rosy picture for planetary exploration in this budget.There are at least three camps in Washington
DC with vastly different views on what the federal budget should look like: the
Trump administration, Congressional Republicans (who may have fractured views
of their own), and Congressional Democrats.The overall Trump federal budget proposes radical changes to spending
for many agencies (NASA among the few excluded).It seems likely that resolving these
differences may extend well into 2018 or perhaps never.(Resolving much smaller differences for the
FY17 budget occurred eight months after the start of the fiscal year.)The standard way to deal with impasses is to
pass a continuing resolution that extends the previous year’s funding into the
next for a period of time (and sometimes the entire year).Several missions in development – the Mars
2020 rover, Europa Clipper, and Lucy asteroid mission – require large increases
in their budgets next year to stay on track.Long-lasting continuing resolutions could cause these missions to miss
their launch dates, raising the overall costs of the missions.

The budget document did have one surprising piece of potential
news.The Psyche asteroid orbiter
mission has been slated to launch in 2023 and arrive at its metallic namesake
in 2030.The mission’s websites state
these dates.However, the budget document
states that the mission will launch in 2022 and arrive at its destination in
2025.A typo or more aggressive funding
allowing an earlier launch and arrival?

About Me

You can contact me at futureplanets1@gmail.com with any questions or comments.
I have followed planetary exploration since I opened my newspaper in 1976 and saw the first photo from the surface of Mars. The challenges of conceiving and designing planetary missions has always fascinated me. I don't have any formal tie to NASA or planetary exploration (although I use data from NASA's Earth science missions in my professional work as an ecologist).
Corrections and additions always welcome.