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Monday, August 31, 2015

I realized that throughout the years spent writing about illicit real money trading in EVE Online, I neglected the engine that allows the black market1 to operate: the buyer. Without the demand for cheap ISK, PLEX, characters, and so on, the illicit RMT operations would not exist. I initially began a research project aimed at determining the effect of Aegis sov (aka FozzieSov) but decided to kill two birds with one stone and focus on buyer trends at the same time.

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

On Monday, the price of a PLEX sold in Jita finally exceeded 1 billion ISK. Yesterday, having finally broken the barrier, PLEX jumped in price by 34.4 million ISK to 1,039,989,998.96 each. From my point of view, that lowered the price of 1 billion ISK in Jita down to $16.82 USD.

At Fanfest, I spoke of the hazard discount, the price range in which players preferred to purchase black market ISK. For most of the past 2-3 years, the hazard discount ran between $10-$12 dollars per billion ISK purchased. But with the run up in the price of PLEX this summer, that changed.

To determine the hazard discount, I use the actual prices of the transactions I'm able to track at Player Auctions, a large gold selling site that also hosts ISK sellers. In April, the hazard discount, at $11.08/billion ISK, was solidly in the $10-$12 range. But in July, the hazard discount dropped over 20% down to $8.82. A price that far short of the historical hazard discount meant a drastic drop in the amount of ISK purchased, right?

Wrong. The amount of ISK I tracked barely dropped at all. So what happened?

My current working theory is that in April, the price of ISK not only fell within the middle of the hazard discount, but also was 50% cheaper than ISK purchased in Jita. That 50% off is a powerful mental influence to get people to buy things. I believe that instead of looking for a $10/billion discount, black market ISK buyers will now look for 50% off. Quite frankly, ISK sellers can no longer afford to undercut the Jita price by $10/billion.

CCP's goal of making ISK selling not worth the bother is slowly getting closer. I can't help but wonder if we are about to see another drop-off in ISK sellers similar to what we witnessed in the final three months of 2013 and throughout 2014. If the hazard discount becomes based on a percentage rather than a flat rate, that will delay the decline, but at what point do black market ISK buyers decide they cannot save enough money to justify the risk of losing training time, if not their entire accounts?

HEDION – After receiving a statement from Lord Pomik Haromi, Court Chamberlain of the Empire, Amarr Certified News has publicly confirmed the death of Her Royal Highness, Empress Jamyl Sarum I.

En route to formally commission the Amarr Navy’s new Imperial Issue Abaddon class flagship TES Auctoritas, and welcome her to The Throne Worlds Defence Fleet, Empress Jamyl and her Imperial Guard escort were ambushed in the system of Safizon as they arrived.

The assault on the Amarr Navy, which saw the destruction of the Avatar class titan TES Seraph, piloted by Empress Jamyl, is believed to be the largest and most costly loss of military hardware that the Imperial Armed Forces have suffered in over a century.

In the statement, released just moments ago, Chamberlain Haromi confirmed that Empress Sarum was “killed in action, defending God’s will, God’s chosen, and His Empire” before paying tribute to her “extraordinary strength, selflessness and humility before the watchful gaze of God.”

With tributes already pouring in from across the Empire as billions of Imperial Citizens flock to their places of worship, and messages of condolence arriving from heads of state across the cluster, Chamberlain Haromi reassured the Amarr people that “the Imperial Armed forces are on full alert, and will stay that way until such a time as the Court Chamberlain is satisfied that a stand down is necessary.”

Speaking before the Imperial press, the Chamberlain concluded the statement by saying that “All branches of the Imperial Military have been instructed that their primary objective is the defence of the Empire’s borders, her people, and God’s will.”

After the statement, the Office of the Court Chamberlain confirmed that handover of leadership from the Emperor Family to Chamberlain Haromi was completed less than an hour after the confirmation of the death of the Empress, and that his first actions were to place the entire Amarr Navy on high alert and call the heads of all branches of the Imperial Armed Forces and the Imperial government to Dam Torsad.

It is expected that in the coming hours, the leaders of the Ministry of War, Amarr Navy, Ministry of Internal Order, Imperial Chancellor, Theology Council, 24th Imperial Crusade and representatives of the Imperial Heirs will meet to assess the situation.

YULAI – Emergency diplomacy following yesterday's assassination of Empress Jamyl I by a Drifter strike force has been ongoing throughout the day, with the CONCORD Assembly's Cluster Security Committee in continuing session. A spokesman for CONCORD's Inner Circle stated that, "CONCORD assets and DED fleets have been placed on the highest state of alert since the Sansha's Nation Abductions Emergency of YC112."

The spokesman went on, "While the Inner Circle is shocked and saddened by the death of Empress Jamyl I, our foremost concern is the ongoing security of the New Eden cluster. We will remain vigilant and attentive to our primary mission during this developing situation. Naturally, the Drifter threat is our highest concern at present."

In the Caldari State, the Chief Executive Panel has expressed its "deep regrets and condolences to the Amarr people." The CEP's official statement described Empress Jamyl as "a figure of great importance to the friendly relations between State and Empire, who will be missed by all State and Corporation citizens. We mourn her and commend her spirit to its lasting and final place."

The Caldari Navy has been placed on alert along State borders and Megacorporation security forces have been mobilized for "purposes of maintaining the internal security of state and corporate assets given the clear danger from the Drifter entities."

President Jacus Roden of the Gallente Federation met with his cabinet, military advisors and leading Senators before addressing the Federation by domestic GalNet broadcast. In his remarks, President Roden praised Empress Jamyl as "a deeply impressive leader who in my dealings with her was always clear where she stood in the interests of her people and the Amarr Empire."

President Roden went on, "Of course, I differed with her and the policies of the Amarr Empire on many, many points but I can say that she was a positive force in containing our ongoing conflicts. On behalf of the Gallente Federation and People, I offer my deepest condolences to the people of the Amarr Empire." Federation Navy forces are reported to have been moved to invasion defense positions throughout Gallente space and the FIO has confirmed its special reconnaissance forces have been dedicated to monitoring Drifter activity.

Emerging from a secure session of the Tribal Council, Sanmatar Maleatu Shakor of the Minmatar Republic made some brief remarks to the press, "I have consulted with the Tribes and we have taken the best advice on the security situation. It is our judgement as a Council that the Tribes face no immediate danger from the so-called 'Drifters'. We are dismayed at the ability of these entities to penetrate the security of a major power and it is always destabilizing when a head of state is violently removed. We are most concerned that our enslaved brothers and sisters not suffer even more during this time of uncertainty in the Amarr Empire."

Elsewhere in the Republic there has been less restraint with scenes of jubilation reported on the streets of Minmatar cities. Questioned about the large crowds celebrating the death of the Empress, Sanmatar Shakor declined to comment. Chief Tenerhaddi Dykon of the Krusual was less reticent, declaring, "Why should they not rejoice? I am rejoicing as I would rejoice at the death of a rabid slaver hound."

Now, why am I pointing out the times of these reports? Because I heard rumors that Jamyl was not dead. I decided to contact an agent of the Republic Fleet and received this reply at

That's right, Jamyl was spotted alive in Chaven, one of the newbie systems, over 24 hours after the initial reports of her death. I should point out I was not the first to think to run a locator agent on the Empress.

I contacted Sistran again early this morning to find Jamyl's current location and received this response.

This is the response one gets from locator agents when a character is logged out. I didn't feel like creating and biomassing a character to find out if this message is the same for deleted characters as well. My guess is yes.

On yesterday's Hydrostatic Lore Panel, CCP confirmed that Jamyl is dead. Apparently, people believing that Jamyl is still alive is a sore spot with one of the hosts, Ashterothi.

On the Lore Panel, CCP Affinity stated that Jamyl is "a corpse in a mysterious location," which actually helps confirm some tinfoil thoughts I came up with before listening to the recording of the stream. According to all of the in-game information I have gathered, the Drifters did not kill Jamyl. If my reading of the reports from Sistran are correct, she died sometime on Sunday, not Friday. So the question is, how did Jamyl really die and what did the killers do with the body?

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

I smiled yesterday imagining all the tears coming from certain quarters of null sec when CCP Fozzie posted the changes to the sovereignty capture mechanics coming next Tuesday with Galatea. Perhaps CCP is disappointed in the amount of space some alliances still hold. Whatever the reason, I believe CCP just made trolling conducting offensive operations in null sec a lot more easier:

"The first and most significant change in this release is that we are reducing the base capture time of Structure Command Nodes from 10 minutes to 4 minutes, and Station Services from 5 minutes to 4 minutes. This means the capture times for these structures will range from a minimum of 4 minutes (for defenders and when the multiplier is at its base of 1) to a maximum of 24 minutes (for attackers against a 6x multiplier structure). This change only applies to Command Nodes and Station Services, NOT to the initial reinforcement of a sov structure (which keep their current base capture time of 10 minutes)."

If I have my math right, an uncontested attacker can destroy a territorial control unit (TCU) or an infrastructure upgrade (iHub) in as little as 12 minutes if the system has an Activity Defense Multiplier (ADM) of 1. If the sov holding alliance is just counting on a high strategic index level and doesn't actually conduct any PvE in the system, the maximum system ADM is 2. In that case, an uncontested attacker can destroy a sov structure in as little as 24 minutes. Those figures are down over 50%, from 22 minutes and 44 minutes respectively.

To make matters worse for the absentee landlord, the vulnerability window is 18 hours for a system with ADM 1 and 9 hours at ADM 2. That's a lot of time to have to protect a system from hostile attacks. Or even trolls.

I foresee the ultimate scenario playing out like this. First, someone decides to have a little fun and starts entosifying structures. What's 15 minutes or so to troll someone? A couple of days later, a small gang looking for a fight decides to entosify the command nodes spawning from the structure. Why not? The worst that happens is that no one shows up to defend and everyone gets to grab a drink or take a bio break.

I'm not sure that the proposed changes will result in more action in null sec. Sometimes diplomacy trumps game design. But with a lot of territory very vulnerable, the tear collectors may come out in force next Tuesday.

Monday, August 17, 2015

Yesterday, some Russian alliances decided to express their displeasure with the Aegis sovereignty changes (aka FozzieSov) in Jita. If the killmaill for a gank of an Obelisk is any indication, the effort was led by Legion of xXDEATHXx, with the Geminite-based Infinity Space. alliance performing a lot of ganking in the trade hub. Am I putting on my tinfoil hat saying that Legion of xXDEATHXx and its leader, UAxDEATH, is leading the effort. I don't think so.

On 31 July, UAxDEATH broke a three-year silence on the official EVE Online forums and posted a complaint about Aegis sov signed by many Russian (and one Imperium) alliances. I'll just post the conclusion here:

"Fozziesov is currently a long, exhausting and inconvenient sovereignty warfare model. Sovereignty is absolutely unprotected against sov trolling. This game mechanics stimulates unintended usage. This situation can no longer exist in its current state. We are highly determined and if all our demands and solutions are not addressed in a week's time, we reserve the right to fight back for our game time and fun, which we were stripped off by the new game mechanics."

Despite some valid complaints, I think the real sticking point is the fact that UAxDEATH is unable to hold as large of an area as he currently does as easily as before the introduction of the new capture mechanics in July. A rather surprising development considering UAxDEATH signed onto The Null Deal last September. The first point of The Null Deal addressed the need for occupancy-based sovereignty:

"We believe that ownership of territory should be reflected by alliance occupancy. Players should live in and utilize their space, and player infrastructure and activity should be reflected in an occupancy index. We believe this will significantly shrink the footprints of the current absentee empires, free up large sections of sov 0.0 for smaller entities, and remove the current need for vast coalitions."

Arguably, one of the absentee empires referred to in The Null Deal was Shadow of xXDEATHXx, Legion of xXDEATHXx's rental alliance. Controlling the sovereignty of 242 systems as of last night, X.W.X controls over a hundred more systems than the next largest alliance, the rental alliance Brothers of Tangra. Including Legion of xXDEATHXx's 90 systems, the alliance's 1739 pilots have to watch over 332 systems. Even including the renters, that only gives UAxDEATH 3500 pilots to not only defend, but build up the systems' indexes to aid in any defense. Considering that The Imperium seems to believe a population density of 100 is required to successfully hold space, UAxDEATH trying to maintain his empire with a population density of 10 seems like wishful thinking. Perhaps that is why 44 out of the 220 structures (20%) listed on timerboard.net as of midnight EVE time belonged to either X.W.X (40) or X.I.X (4).

As the situation stands, Russian forces stand poised to continue attacks and other protests (like shooting the Jita monument) until CCP does something to satisfy their demands. At least, that was the impression some gave last night. Naturally, I'm interested in the events due to the illicit RMT angle. As CCP revealed at Fanfest this year, the three alliances with the most accounts banned for illicit RMT activities were three well-known rental alliances. But with UAxDEATH stepping up to replace Gorga on the CSM, having the leader of the protests with access to NDA information should prove quite intriguing.

Test steps:Meet in Kor-Azor Prime.Fleet up into small fleets.We will attempt several PvE sites together, instructions given by CCP Paradox.

What else should I know?We will be moving players to the test system - join the channel massmoveme2M Skill points will be awarded on Singularity for this play-testPlease bring your best PvE ship, or ship you feel is equipped enough to take on Drifters.Note that these sites will not give access to Capital ships, so Carriers or larger will not be used.The 'Incursion' will be left to run its cause after the test.I (CCP Paradox) will answer some, but not all details about the Incursion during the test.You may want to move your clone to the system Kor-Azor Prime for this test, due to our podding friends the Drifters.

Known Issues:Will be updated on the day, stay tuned.

What is "Defense of the Throne Worlds"? Sounds like some sort of Drifter incursion to me. The Drifters don't seem to like the false Empress Jamyl I very much. Or they just find the Amarr easy pickings. Whatever the reason, the Drifters have targeted the Amarr Empire for special attention. On 27 June, a fleet of approximately 100 Drifter battleships dropped on CVA's 12th anniversary celebration in Sarum Prime. Less than two weeks ago, a Drifter battleship fleet battled and defeated an Amarr Navy fleet consisting primarily of Omen Navy Issues in Safizon on 31 July. Hot NPC on NPC action. Oh my!

The other portion of the test concerns those behavioral NPCs. I don't blame CCP for wanting to test the new artificial intelligence out before releasing them on Tranquility. Before the Circadian Seekers made their first appearance, they showed an alarming taste for capsuleer flesh, podding players on Singularity. The scary part was that the devs didn't know why. Yikes!

A lot of players have asked for improved PvE play for years. Since CCP introduced Sansha incursions in November 2010, the feature has just lain underutilized except for the randomly spawning constellation invasions. Now CCP looks like they will use the system to advance the storyline? And at the same time the Amarr Navy is apparently getting an upgraded AI that will do who knows what? I may need to get a program like FRAPS or even start streaming content in Amarr space just to document the strange new activities of EVE's NPCs.

I have one last crazy thought. The Drifter incursions are called Defense of the Throne Worlds. Would CCP allow the Drifters to attack and destroy NPC stations? If the Drifters destroyed the stations, then the Amarr would need to rebuild them, wouldn't they? Perhaps with the new citadel structures? What better way to introduce the structures into the game? Of course, if the Drifters can destroy stations in high sec, what's to keep them from attacking stations in null? Wouldn't that give the null sec powers an incentive to not ignore the Drifters? Something to think about, anyway.

Monday, August 10, 2015

I had an idea for a blog post but scrapped the effort late last night. With World of Warcraftdropping another 1.5 million subs in the second quarter of 2015, the game now finds itself with as many subscribers as back in late 2005. The temptation to compare WoW's decline to 2005 subscription levels with EVE Online's concurrent user decline to 2008 levels is great.

But that would lead to another effort to evaluate the health of EVE Online. Sorry, not going to happen. At least not yet. As Thomas Howell over on Stellar Relic noted, I believe that things like multiple character training and the cash shop reduce the importance of subscription numbers. In my opinion, EVE Online is bringing in more money now than back in 2008. Do I want to back up that assertion? Not really. I can wait until someone pays for CCP's 2015 financial statement next year.

I believe one thing often gets overlooked. FozzieSov, while a major change to the game, is not the final destination of the latest development effort. I really want to see the introduction of player-built star gates and what lies on the other side. Everything else is just a waypoint on the way to that destination.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Last week CCP decided to turn a bug into a feature and remove the standings requirement to obtain jump clones from NPC corporations. CCP Falcon explained the decision last Tuesday:

"Before the release, minimum standings of +8.0 were required with an NPC corporation in order for a pilot to be able to install a jump clone in their stations. This is no longer the case, and capsuleers can freely create jump clones in whichever NPC station they choose to do so.

"This was an unintended change that was a side effect of the release, however, after watching the reaction this change received from the community, we have decided that it will remain in place. This means that pilots will be able to continue to benefit from having no standings restriction on jump clone creation."

I realize that some CSM members believe the noblest act they can perform is to remove inactive CSM members and receive credit for doing so. But others see CCP slowly breaking a major game mechanic in EVE. Sugar Kyle pointed out the problem in her weekly CSM update on Sunday:

"I've made a lot of clones for people with my Rorqual but I don't think that that's the best reason to keep standings as they were. I think that it highlights the fact that there needs to be a better reward system created for high standings. At the same time, it also reestablishes the fact that standings need a serious sit down and rework as they become a weird, hollow shell of features. My concern is that this will be left dangling. I don't want that."

Over the past 12 months, CCP removed two of the biggest benefits of having high faction or NPC corporation standings, the anchoring of POS in high sec and now the purchase of jump clones, from the game. NPC corporation and faction standings still provide benefits (and penalties) to players who choose to help or kill NPCs. A partial list includes:

-5.0 and below: The player becomes shoot on sight to NPC factions.

-2.0: The player loses access to all of a faction's agents above level 1 (for faction standings) or just a corporation's agents over level 1 (for NPC corp standings).

1.0: The player gains access to an NPC corporation's level 2 agents. If the standings with the faction are 1.0, then the player gains access to all of the level 2 agents for that faction.

3.0: The player gains access to an NPC corporation's level 3 agents. If the standings with the faction are 3.0, then the player gains access to all of the level 3 agents for that faction.

5.0: The player gains access to an NPC corporation's level 4 agents. If the standings with the faction are 5.0, then the player gains access to all of the level 4 agents for that faction.

6.67: NPC corporations stop taxing a player's refinery use entirely. Between 0 and 6.67, a player receives a reduction in taxes, depending on the player's standings. This benefit does not apply to faction standings.

7.0: The player gains access to an NPC corporation's level 5 agents. If the standings with the faction are 7.0, then the player gains access to all of the level 5 agents for that faction.

In addition, high NPC faction and corporation standings help reduce the broker fees a player pays when selling items. With both faction and corp standings at 10, the broker fee is reduced to 0.185%, saving a player more than 1% through the buy and sell process.

I know that a lot of players hate standings and would cheer if CCP removed the mechanic from the game. I, on the other hand, love standings. While CCP is working on improving EVE's PvE content, I'd also like to see the devs look at the standings system as well. Actions have consequences in New Eden, for good and for bad. I would really hate to see that end for actions taken in support of or against NPCs. If the devs can come up with some compelling, or at least different, game play choices involving standings, I'd love to see them on Tranquility.

Monday, August 3, 2015

Sometimes I just am not in the mood for shenanigans. The latest example concerns the matter of Gorga's participation on the Council of Stellar Management this term. Or, perhaps lack of participation is a better term. From what I can tell, Gorga was a no-show for just about the entire term. No big deal, right? The CSM sees this problem every term.

In CSM 9, inactive members were encouraged to resign. This year's collection of representatives don't seem so accommodating. On Friday, following a meeting, Jayne Fillon sent out the following tweet at 1644 GMT.

The CSM collectively believes Gorga to be an inactive member of the council and publicly asks for his resignation. #tweetfleet#eveonline

My reading of the Twitter feed is perhaps not as generous as some would like. First, StupidGenius from Cap Stable asked Jayne a question about how many members of CSM backed a public call for Gorga to resign. Jayne responded at 1818 GMT.

A public call for Gorga to resign is a huge escalation in the situation, one that ensured drama. But I became even more puzzled reading a tweet from CCP Leeloo, CCP's CSM coordinator, less than three hours later.

So if CCP is taking steps to address the issue, why make a public call for someone's resignation? I suspect some sort of politics is at play,whether a factional conflict inside the CSM or someone preparing for a re-election run. Perhaps both suppositions are true. Either that, or someone just likes drama for its own sake.

I thought about listing all of the parts of Jayne's appearance on CSM Watch Saturday I found troubling. I listened to the podcast 3 times to make sure I understood what he said. Quite frankly, the circus that Jayne's tweet started is not worth the effort, both for me to write and anyone to read. Let's just say that Jayne's performance left a negative impression on me.

Early Sunday morning Sugar Kyle addressed the issue in her weekly CSM update. She began her section on the Gorga situation as follows:

"Friday, while I was at work, all hell seemed to break loose. I came home to discover that 'The CSM' wished for Gorga to resign. Not having been spoken to about the subject, I spent a large amount of the evening finding out what happened even as people asked me what was going on."

I should add that in the episode of CSM Watch, Jayne disclosed that the CSM took no vote and he took that no one speaking up against asking Gorga to resign meant that no one had an issue with doing so publicly. Jayne responded to Sugar's comments on Twitter:

Reading Sugar's blog post does leave a different impression of the conversations occurring in the CSM communication channels:

"The case of the public call for Gorga to resign is an interesting situation. I was at work and started getting people asking me what was going on and why did I want Gorga to resign. The topic of looking into his inactivity had cropped up. Is he okay? Is he busy? Has anyone heard from him?"

In fact, Sugar seems to have more of an issue with the way she was dragged into the mess more than any desire to see Gorga remain on the CSM:

"However, on Friday as I understand it there was the Friday meeting. I was not at because I was at work. Then there was a tweet. Then all hell broke loose. I have no problem with members of the CSM asking another member to resign and stating a reason for that. If people wish they can start to lobby for me to resign. That is personal choice. My natural tendency is to be very angry at being included in another decision..."

Sunday proved an interesting day as in the wake of Sugar's weekly update Jayne had to retreat from his original position. After getting hammered on Twitter, Jayne wanted to discuss the matter on the Tweetfleet Slack. I pointed out that despite Jayne's original tweet on Friday, the decision to call out Gorga in public was not unanimous. When Stupid Genius asked whether the decision to call out Gorga publicly was a unanimous choice of the other 12 members or decided at a meeting, he was told all the other members agreed when in fact the decision was made at a meeting. EVE Radio's Dirk McGirk had another relevant question. Who, in fact, were the other CSM members who chose to make the decision to call out Gorga publicly. Jayne's response is below:

"When I tweeted about it being unanimous, that was in reference to his inactivity. He didn't specify in his question and I didn't specify in my answer, my fault. Secondly, there was no official vote or anything, it was a discussion followed by a screenshot of the proposed tweet, and a call for objections. No one objected so I posted the tweet. That meeting wasn't recorded, so I don't have the information of who was on the meeting or active in the Skype channel at the time. I know that cagali, Manny, and sugar were not, but for a more detailed answer you can talk to Corbexx and hope he recorded it.

"At the end of the day, if sugar wants to separate herself from this, that's fine, but until you ask sugar 'do you think that Gorga is inactive and should resign?' and receive anything except a yes in response, I stand by what I said."

Let's forget that a big difference exists between causing a scandal by doing something publicly versus quietly handling the situation. What is Jayne's response when someone wants to know who approved the measure? The meeting in question was not recorded. The action passed without an affirmative vote. In effect, we don't even know if a majority of the CSM actually paid attention enough to agree by staying silent. One could assume that a majority did. Then again, I think everyone assumed the vote was 13-0 when Jayne sent out the original tweet. In reality, however, we just don't know. How's that for CSM accountability?

Truthfully, I don't care if Gorga is on the CSM. What I do care about is that the CSM not squander any political capital they may possess with CCP on in-fighting. Especially with a stupid stunt like this. Just handle the situation quietly. Stop the unnecessary drama. As a former corpmate tweeted yesterday: