Sunday, June 14, 2015

Two steps forward, one step back. One step forward,
two steps back. That’s what the Indians season has felt like lately. Every time
they seem poised to break out and cross the .500 Rubicon and go on an extended
winning streak, the offense disappears for a couple of games. Or Trevor Bauer
has his worst start of the year. Or both occur in the same series. So here we
sit in mid-June, and the Indians still haven’t been over .500 since they took 2
out of 3 from the Astros in the seasons’ opening series back in April. Stop me
if you’ve heard this before, but the main culprit continues to be the Indians
subpar defense.

To help illustrate just how bad the defense has been
(and how good the starting pitching has been), I’m going to enlist some
assistance from the good folks over at Beyond the Boxscore. Ryan
Roman of BtB penned a helpful piece this week explaining how the Indians
starting pitchers might be the unluckiest group of souls in the history of
baseball. If that sounds like hyperbole to you, I don’t
really blame you, but bear with me for a second and you’ll see why that is
Roman’s hypothesis. As of Friday, Indians pitchers have struck out 9.96 hitters
per 9 IP. That’s a remarkable number, over a full strikeout higher than the 2nd
place Cubs 8.92 K/9 mark. The league leaders in 2014 were these very same
Indians, who posted an 8.92 K/9 ratio over a full season, a number that they’re
on pace to far surpass this year. They also lead the league in another category;
BABIP against. The Indians pitchers have been victimized by a .329 BABIP, well
above the league average. That isn’t just luck (although luck does have
something to do with it); it’s reflective of very poor defense. If both of
those numbers hold up for the rest of the season, the Indians will be the first
team since William McKinley’s (an Ohioan!) election to “achieve” that feat. The
2014 Indians were close, but they had “only” the 2nd-worst BABIP
against in MLB. So for the last season and a half, the Indians have been
historically good at missing bats, while simultaneously historically bad (and/or
unlucky) at ranging to balls hit in play.

These numbers almost can’t remain consistent, except
for the fact that they have. With over 220 games of data in our sample, we’re past
the point where #SSS is an issue, and we’re starting to eliminate bad luck as
the primary culprit. The Indians just don’t have the range to field baseballs
that other teams do at this point. Fortunately, the Indians have made one move
to correct this issue, bringing up slick-fielding 3B Gio Urshela from Columbus.
Urshela should have at least a playable bat (his HR that cut through the
Cleveland wind on Thursday was particularly impressive) but more importantly,
should have an above-average glove right away. He’s being asked to replace
Lonnie Chisenhall’s poor glove and .585 OPS, so it’s not as though he has an
insurmountable bar to clear. The Urshela promotion is the first move that the
Indians can make to shore up their infield defense and help some of that batted
ball “luck” normalize for their outstanding pitching staff. The second move is
of course promoting SS Francisco Lindor (hitting .400/.429/.600 in June!), but
I’m not going to beat on that dead horse this week. Let’s just enjoy the
Urshela experience for what it is, and know that there are further defensive
reinforcements on the horizon.

You
may know that Kipnis lost a bit of last season with a strained right oblique.
And because those often linger for a while, I’m perfectly content in finding
that the May version of Kipnis was just a healthy version of Kipnis. Really,
that seems like a pretty reasonable conclusion, given his batted ball
distances. In 2013, his average distance was nearly 193 feet, good for 72nd in
the league. There was a pretty sizable drop in 2014, however, when Kipnis saw
his average batted ball distance sink to 177 feet following his oblique injury
in May of that year. That average put him deep in the lower third of the
league, ranking 230th out of 300 listed players on Baseball Heat Maps. Now that
Kipnis is (presumably) healthy again, that number has hopped back up to 191
feet.

The 2014 Kipnis was hitting more fly balls and
hitting them shorter than at any point in his career. He was pulling the ball
more, hitting fewer line drives, and in general just struggling to drive the
ball with any kind of authority. That all goes back to the strained oblique,
and how difficult of an injury that is to recover from in mid-season. Kipnis
admits that he felt pressure to live up to the big contract that he signed
prior to the 2014 season, and as such he didn’t want to take enough time off to
allow the injury to fully heal. Now that he’s back healthy, we can expect him
to remain in all-star form for the foreseeable future.

Leaving the big league club for now, the Indians
made even more headlines that one would expect with their 1st round
pick last week, selecting an injured and rehabbing prep lefty by the name of
Brady Aiken. Aiken was the 1st overall pick of last June’s draft by
the Houston Astros, but did not sign with the Astros after a downright bizarre
series of events following his selection. If you’re not familiar with the
Aiken/Astros story (or just need a refresher, like I did), I
highly recommend this article from our good friends over at Let’s Go Tribe.
Jason Lukehart of LGT wrote up a nice synopsis (below) and also talked to Ryan
Dunsmore of Crawfish Boxes, the LGT equivalent SB Nation site for the Astros
(including a FANTASTIC quote from a scout that you’ll have to click on the link
to read):

Two
days after he was drafted, Aiken and the Astros agreed to a $6.5 million
signing bonus, pending only a physical. That physical reportedly revealed a
smaller than normal UCL, which is the ligament that has to be repaired by Tommy
John surgery. The Astros then cut their offer all the way down to $3.1 million,
which was the minimum they could offer and still receive a replacement pick in
this year's draft (if Aiken declined). Many believed they wanted him to
decline, preferring to get the #2 pick in this year's draft (which they did),
rather than running the risk of paying millions to a pitcher they were no
longer confident in. On the day of the signing deadline, the team apparently
upped its offer to $5 million, but no deal was reached.

The whole thing is worth reading, as it gives pretty
good perspective as to what happened, who was to “blame” for Aiken not signing,
and what it might take to bring him into the fold before signing day this year.

When he’s on the mound, Aiken is a stud. He was
drawing comparisons to guys like Andy Pettitte and Clayton Kershaw when the
Astros were conducting their pre-draft evaluations in 2014. Aiken was
considered the #1 prospect in the 2015 draft until he went down with the elbow
injury in March. His sinking fastball sits 92-94 and touches 97. He has an
excellent curveball that needs to be a little more consistent, and a changeup
that scouts assess will be a future plus pitch. He has three potential 60-70
MLB pitches, which is crazy for a high school lefthander. I’m not going to
belabor the finer points of Aiken’s arsenal, because the talent level is pretty
much a known commodity at this point. It’s
scouting reports like these that prompted Baseball Prospectus’ draft/prospect
guru to the following assessment following the pick:

Seriously, I'm
not sure anyone is better at the draft right now than Cleveland is. When
healthy, Aiken is the best player—not just pitcher—in the draft, with three
plus pitches and command/feel for pitching that would make a veteran envious,
much less a kid who still is a teenager. There are obvious questions here that
make him a high-risk selection, but the reward is a future ace. Getting one at
the 17th pick is amazing. Great job, Cleveland.

Prior to the draft, I didn’t think there was any
chance the Indians would take Brady Aiken.
I was flashing back to my pre-season interview with Indians team President Mark
Shapiro, where he stressed that the Indians were not a club
who could risk millions of dollars on high-risk talent coming out of Cuba.
Naturally, the Indians took Aiken, making me look even dumber than I usually do
(and that’s a challenge). That’s when I went back and re-read my own interview,
and realized I had missed the point of Shapiro’s original comments. I’ll
re-post the relevant question and answer for clarity, and bold Shapiro’s key
sentence for emphasis:

AC:
Seeing the opening of Cuba as a market, more so that before with defectors, as
both the Indians President and a guy on the competition committee, what do you
think of some of the big deals that are getting thrown to the Cuban guys that
are coming over? Do you ever see an international draft because of some of the
factors in the market down there?

MS: Well, it’s a
little bit, probably, Indians-centric of me as a judgement, but I’d like to see
some adjustment that allows access to that talent. As it’s currently being
distributed, we are going to be marginal to non-players in that area just
because of the level of risk, and that risk comes from lack of information. We
just don’t know much about these guys. Unless there’s information being
illegally obtained, they’re being signed largely from a tryout environment. I
understand, and I’d probably take that risk if I ran a large-market team, but
we don’t have that luxury. It’s not an area we can play in. We can’t risk tens of millions of dollars
on players that we have far less information on than players in the draft that
cost a lot less. So it’s just a very tough market for us to play in. I
would like to see something that allows access to that talent on a more
proportional basis, that’s not so market-based.

This isn’t like Cuba; the Indians HAVE information
on Aiken. It’s in Aiken (and his agent’s) interest to provide medicals to teams
pre-draft, otherwise it looks like they are hiding something. So I’m sure the
Indians had a chance to look over a pretty detailed report concerning Aiken’s
surgically repaired elbow. Now that they’ve selected him, they’ll have the same
opportunity that the Astros had to put him through a pre-signing physical to
ensure that there are no further concerning anomalies before they offer him
upwards of $2 million. If Aiken clears that final hurdle, the Indians will have
a chance to bring in a potential lefthanded ace with a mid-1st round
draft pick. Those chances don’t come along every year, and it’s both exciting
and a little bit scary that they took that shot this year.

The best-case scenario for what the Indians are
trying to do here is currently playing out in Washington, where Lucas Giolito
is a top-10 pitching prospect in all of baseball. Giolito was in the mix to be
the first prep righty ever selected #1 overall in the draft back in 2012 before
an elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery (and bonus concerns) pushed
him down to the #16 overall pick. Giolito signed at the deadline for $2.925
million ($800,000 over slot) and began his rehab as a member of the Nationals
organization. Giolito blew out his elbow in 2011, and pitched 2 innings with
the Nats Gulf Coast affiliate in 2012. The Nationals handled him with kid
gloves in 2013 (as expected), as he pitched just 36 2/3 innings between the
rookie league, short season and low-A. In 2014, Giolito was allowed to throw 98
innings in low-A, striking out 110 and walking 28. He’s already pitched over 70
innings here in 2015, and could be a member of what’s already a very formidable
Nationals rotation as soon as 2017 (more likely 2018).

The worst-case scenario for the Aiken selection is,
ironically enough, also taking place in our nation’s capital. The Nationals
selected TCU righthander Matt Purke in the 3rd round of the 2011
draft and signed him to a major league deal worth $4.15 million. Purke had a
shoulder injury at the time, but had been one of the top pitchers in college
baseball and was considered a potential #1 overall pick. Instead of succsessfuly
rehabbing the shoulder and slowly increasing his workload as Giolito did,
Purke’s shoulder got worse, eventually requiring surgery. He then hurt his
elbow in 2013, which required Tommy John. Purke is now a 24-year old starter in
low-A, and has pitched just 149 2/3 innings since he was drafted 4+ years ago.
The Nats basically lit $4.15 million on fire, and wasted a 40-man roster spot
to boot. Hopefully Aiken turns out more like Giolito than Purke.

"I thought
he was kidding," Francona said on Wednesday. "He might not even go to
the Minor Leagues. I don't care if he gets anyone out -- just the idea that he
can go both sides. I thought they were messing with me."

Perez learned to switch pitch thanks to his dad, who
would encourage him to skip rocks with his left arm growing up in addition to
his right. This is hilarious, as my friends and I frequently joke that for any
of us that have sons, we’ll tie their right arms behind their backs so they can
grow up as southpaws and have a better shot at pitching in The Show (or at
least getting college paid for). Perez’s dad didn’t go quite that far, but he’s
given an idea to wannabe MLB dads everywhere. Don’t just make your kid switch
hit, get him to switch pitch as well. Chris
Crawford of Baseball Prospectus projects Perez as a middle reliever who can be
effective against hitters on both sides of the plate,
but does note that he’ll need some mechanical adjustments from the right side
(which is ironic considering he’s a natural righty). He sits 92-94 from the
left side with a solid curveball, which is probably enough to get by as a
reliever. Regardless, it’s a fun story, and he’ll be an interesting guy to
monitor on his way up through the system (if Tito doesn’t force him onto the
MLB roster the day he signs).

Sunday, May 24, 2015

Nearly two months into the 2015 major league
baseball season, the Indians pretty much are who we thought they were. That
“we” even encompasses those (myself included) who thought they were a playoff
team in 2015. They’re a decent team with exceptional starting pitching, a solid
(if unspectacular) lineup, a below-average bullpen and a dumpster fire
defensively. Again, this is more or less what we saw coming into this season.
If anything, the starting pitching has actually been better than expected, and
a bounceback season from Jason Kipnis has helped propel the offense to the
upper half of the AL. But the defense has been worse than anyone could’ve
possibly imagined, dragging the club down in the AL Central standings like an
anchor. To help illustrate that point, I’m going to have to throw some
“advanced” stats at you, so bear with me here.

The Indians team ERA sits at a rather pedestrian
4.31 (all stats as of Friday). That is “good” for 24th in all of
baseball. Pretty poor, really, and if you’d asked someone in 1994 if the
Indians pitching staff was good, they’d say “absolutely not.” But you and I,
we’re smarter than that. We watch the games. We see the Klubot, Cookie, Bauer
and Salazar striking out hitter after hitter, only to see soft groundballs
somehow leak through the infield with nary a glove nearby. We watch Mike Aviles
(sorry to bring this one up) try to track down a ball in center, coming up
empty and wondering what he was even doing in CF to begin with. We know that
the Indians starting pitching has been outstanding, but with the team ERA being
what it is, we don’t really have a way to quantify that in a single,
all-encompassing stat.

Fear not, fellow frustrated fan. We DO have a stat
that looks at every aspect of what a pitcher can and cannot control and assigns
a value to what he and he alone does on the diamond. No, I’m not talking about
WAR. WAR is nice, but it’s not really predictive and isn’t as useful in such
small samples. I’m talking about cFIP, or contextual fielding independent
pitching. An improvement over the traditional FIP, cFIP accounts for everything
going on in a game; the pitcher, hitter, defense, umpire, catcher framing,
ballpark, hot dog race participants…everything. Here’s a
complete primer on cFIP from Jonathan Judge of Hardball Times if you’re
interested in learning more, but I’ve snipped a couple of key
excerpts here that help us understand why it’s such a useful stat:

cFIP has
multiple advantages: (1) it is more predictive than other pitcher estimators,
especially in smaller samples; (2) it is calculated on a batter-faced basis,
rather than innings pitched; (3) it is park-, league-, and opposition-adjusted;
and (4) in a particularly important development, cFIP is equally accurate as a
descriptive and predictive statistic.

The last
characteristic makes cFIP something we have not seen before: a true pitcher
quality estimator that actually approximates the pitcher’s current ability. I
recommend both its use and its further refinement.

~snip~

When is a
pitcher quality estimator actually isolating true talent? My answer is this:
when there is a substantial similarity between the estimator’s descriptive and
predictive power. If an estimator is truly isolating a pitcher’s talent, there
should not be much difference between the two. If an estimator is doing well in
one aspect and poorly on another, then it is not estimating a pitcher’s true
ability: rather, it is over-fitting past results to better explain what
happened (primarily descriptive) or under-fitting past results to minimize
future error (primarily predictive).

So now that we’ve established that cFIP is an
excellent tool for both analyzing past performance and predicting future
success, where do the Indians rank in terms of cFIP?
Why, first in all of baseball, with a cFIP score of 82
(like OPS+, cFIP is scored so that 100 is exactly average. Lower cFIP is better
than higher). That number is especially remarkable when you consider that the
next-closest club is the Clayton Kershaw-led Dodgers at 92. That 10-point
difference between the Indians and Dodgers is the same as the difference
between the #2 Dodgers and #22 Atlanta Braves. The Indians have the best
pitching in baseball, and it’s really not even close.

So why are the Indians scuffling along with fewer
than 20 wins in the season’s first 40 games? Look no further than the defense,
which yet again is THE WORST in all of baseball. They’re dead last in both
Defensive Efficiency and Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They’re last in
BABIP against, with opposing offenses hitting a robust (and probably
unsustainable) .331 against them when they make contact. The 2nd-worst
are the Washington Nationals, all the way down at .322. The Indians are 28th
(hey, progress!) in Defensive Runs Saved. This confirms all of our offseason
fears about the defense. They can indeed be bad enough at fielding the ball to
counteract just how great they are at pitching the ball.

There are, however, encouraging signs to be found
within this sea of statistics. The Detroit Tigers, for instance, lead baseball
with a .334 BABIP. Kansas City is 2nd at .322. Both of those numbers
are likely to regress at some point. Kansas City has been just as lucky in the
field as they have been at the plate; KC’s BABIP-against is a paltry .260, a
full 71 points lower than the Indians, and a number that can’t help but rise as
the season progresses. The Indians are likely to improve on their record, and
the Royals (and to an extent the Tigers) will surely cool off after their
sizzling start. Will the three clubs’ respective move towards the mean be
enough to see the Indians pass one or both of their AL Central rivals for a
playoff spot? Time will tell, but if not, we know where to place the blame;
squarely on the defense.

But do we really have to wait until September to
look back and curse the horrendous defense that ruined such outstanding
pitching? Is there really no solution available in mid-season that could fix
what ails this club? Well, it just so happens that there are reinforcements on
the horizon. In the near-term, the Indians are getting Yan Gomes back today.
Gomes is an above-average defensive catcher, and will slide average defensive
catcher Roberto Perez back to a reserve role where he belongs. Perez has been
serviceable as a fill-in for Gomes, but is far better suited to be a backup
than an everyday catcher at the major league level. Gomes return to the lineup
is akin to the tide coming in; the Gomes tide will lift the boats containing
the defense, pitching and the lineup all in one fell swoop. That’s both the
easiest and most imminent move to improve the D (and the team).

Move two is something I won’t belabor, because it’s
a train I’ve been aboard for a while now. That, of course, is to promote
Francisco Lindor to the major league roster and play him as the everyday
shortstop. Lindor is a superlative defender who would be an immediate upgrade
over Jose Ramirez, who is flat-out overmatched as an everyday shortstop.
Ramirez has value, but that value is as a super-utility guy who can play 2B, SS
or 3B several times a week, spotting Chiz/Kip against tough lefties and filling
in at SS when the need arises. But he’s a poor defender at SS, and the 22-year
old switch-hitter is hitting just .195/.265/.264 this season. Even if Lindor’s
bat isn’t a finished product (which it isn’t), it’s hard to offer less value
than a .526 OPS. Lindor makes this team better today by virtue of his defense
alone, and that’s worth having him on the major league roster sooner rather
than later.

My third idea is to move David Murphy to a club
hungry for outfield help in exchange for a bullpen arm. Despite
the mentality of Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes,
Murphy is expendable, and with him off the roster the Indians would be able to
bring up the more versatile James Ramsey. Ramsey will likely be a better
defender than Murphy, and can play all 3 OF spots. He’s a better hitter than
Tyler Holt, and will help prevent Mike Aviles from ever appearing in CF again.
If Murphy can fetch a contributing bullpen arm, I’d do this deal in a heartbeat.
Murphy is playing well right now, but he’s more or less redundant with all of
the other left handed hitting OF on the roster. He’s doing a nice job this
season, hitting .312/.341/.481 primarily against right handed pitching, but
that .822 OPS would be the 2nd-highest of his career over a full
season, and is unlikely to continue at that rate. Murphy is a good guy and a
solid player, but he’s a subpar defender and I’d rather have another bullpen
arm right now.

And for the
first five seasons after dealing their pitching stalwarts, it looked as if all
the front office had to show for their collective efforts was a league average
regular left fielder, who hit like a center fielder and lacked the pop for a
corner spot, and a frustratingly fringy back-of-the-rotation arm. They were, in
every sense of the word, the last men standing from their respective deals as the
other prospects petered out.

Something funny
happened over the past season-plus – not funny in the traditional sense, mind
you, but more in the way of nobody-saw-it-coming – both players took
developmental leaps forward. The corner outfielder hit like a legitimate
middle-of-the-order impact bat and the maddening, inconsistent right-hander
suddenly became, well, consistently dominant.

Podhorzer goes deeper into Carrasco’s 2015 to
show that he’s actually pitching much like he did last year, but he’s been let
down by luck and the defense (surprise!) thus far. Carrasco’s K rate and walk
rate are nearly identical, and he’s actually throwing more strikes this year
than he did last year. His FIP is 2.62 (he finished with a 2.44 FIP last year),
but his ERA is more than 2 runs higher (4.74 this year to 2.55 last year). The
biggest difference is in BABIP. Cookie limited hitters to a .274 average on
balls in play last year, but that’s jumped to a whopping .359 this season.
There’s no way that lasts, even with the Indians horrific defense. Carrasco
remains an excellent pitcher, so please don’t be “that guy” at the water cooler
citing his high ERA as a reason why last year was a fluke. It wasn’t, and
Carrasco’s numbers reflect that.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t bring up the incredible
season that Jason Kipnis is having, as he’s in the midst of one of the best
stretches that I’ve seen from an Indians hitter in years. As the Indians
leadoff hitter, Kipnis is hitting a sizzling .387/.480/.632 with 4 HR and 15
RBI in 26 games. In 20 games during the month of May, Kip is hitting
.463/.546/.732, good for a 1.278(!) OPS. In terms of wRC this month, his 259
trails only Bryce Harper’s 296 mark in all of baseball. He’s leading the
American League with 57 hits, and his 2.5 WAR are more than he accumulated in
all of last season. His defense has been better this year as well, as he’s been
worth 0.4 dWAR (1.1 better than his -0.7 dWAR in 2014). He’s fueling an offense
that ranks 5th in the AL with a combined .730 OPS, and the Indians
have been a different team since he moved into the leadoff spot. The challenge
for Kipnis will be to sustain this success throughout the season. He’s a career
.325/.396/.554 hitter in the month of May, but has averaged a sub-.700 OPS in
July-September. If Kip can maintain anything approaching this pace for the rest
of the season, it’ll go a long ways towards supporting the Indians’ outstanding
starting pitching down the stretch.

It’s Memorial Day weekend here in the US, an
occasion that some see as significant because of the day off work and the start
of summer BBQ season. Fortunately, we have a couple of excellent articles that
both tie into baseball and remind us of the significance of the holiday. Zack
Meisel of the Plain Dealer wrote a fantastic piece about a local baseball star
who gave up his major league dreams for pilot’s wings, becoming a Special
Forces helicopter pilot in Afghanistan. He tragically perished while flying a
team of US Navy SEALS into enemy territory attempting to rescue Marcus Lutrell
and the other SEALS in Operation Red Wings. This op would eventually be
detailed the book and movie “Lone Survivor.” As Meisel himself tweeted, if you
only read one thing he’s written, make it that article.

Brave men and women have been fighting and dying for
America since before we were even a country. Memorial Day was established in
the wake of the Civil War as a time to honor those soldiers who have made the
ultimate sacrifice. So by all means, enjoy a couple of cold beers and a burger
(or three) at a barbecue this weekend. But while you do, take a moment to
appreciate the men and women who have fought and died over the past 250 or so
years so that we can live in freedom to enjoy baseball, BBQ and apple pie.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Nearly three weeks into the season, the Indians have
scuffled their way to a 6-10 record and find themselves at the bottom of the
very competitive AL Central division. Just when it looked like the Tribe had
found some momentum after a 13-1 shellacking of the Tigers, Trevor Bauer came
down with food poisoning before yesterday’s start and the Indians were unable
to get anything going in yet another loss to their AL Central foes. TJ House
made an emergency start and held the Tigers to three runs in three innings of
work, a decent outing considering the circumstances. But the offensive outburst
from Friday night didn’t carry over to Saturday, and Brandon Moss (who’s OPS
spiked nearly 200 points after his 2 HR, 2B, 7 RBI game on Friday) failed twice
go score a runner from 3B with less than 2 outs in a 4-1 loss. It’s still
early, but the 2015 Indians seem to have the same problems that plagued the
2014 Indians; poor defense, lack of timely hitting and a complete and utter
inability to beat Detroit on a regular basis.

Grantland’s
Jonah Keri checked in with his weekly power rankings on Monday, slotting the
then 4-7 Indians in at #15 overall. Since Keri’s weekly
focus was on defense, it’s no surprise that he chose to expound on the Indians
ranking. Keri notes that, following a season in which the Indians were the
worst defensive team in baseball, they’ve opened the 2015 season as the second worst
defensive team in baseball. So…they’re trending upwards? Keri goes on to note
that while the Indians have and will continue to suffer with defensive
limitations, it might not matter as much due to the propensity of the Indians
rotation to strike out everyone in the world.

It
only takes a quick look at the AL pitching leaderboards to confirm this theory.
After Friday night’s games, the Indians led the AL in strikeouts with 158 (one
ahead of the Yankees 157). The AL average was 125. The team ERA however, is a
more robust 3.88 (league average 3.98). Since it’s 2015 and not 1985 though,
let’s dig a little deeper on that one and note that the Indians have the 2nd
best Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in the AL at 3.25, and that 0.63
disparity is the 2nd highest in the AL, behind the fellow
strikeout-heavy NYY. The Indians pitchers are (again) controlling what they can
control, but the defense isn’t picking them up. If this sounds like a familiar
story, it should, as the 2014 Indians led the AL with a 3.42 FIP but were tied
for 6th with a 3.56 ERA.

So how do we fix this? How do we take advantage of
what could be the best top to bottom (especially if TJ House can right the
ship) pitching staff in the league? Well, it just so happens that I have a
plan:

1.Call
up James Ramsey to replace Little Jerry Sands. Ramsey, unlike Sands, can play
all three outfield positions and will prevent any future situations where Mike
Aviles plays CF. He’s a better defender than Murphy, and should be able to hold
his own at the plate.

2.Swap
out Jose Ramirez for Francisco Lindor. Ramirez has been OK at short this year,
but his range factor and defensive runs saved are both down from 2014 (small
sample size alert). Combining those stats with years of scouting evaluations
that suggest Ramirez will be at best an average shortstop pushes this one over
the top for me. Ramirez can go back to AAA and play SS, 2B and 3B, then come
back in a couple of months and take over the Mike Aviles role. Meanwhile,
Lindor takes over at SS and immediately becomes a plus defender at short,
shoring up a shaky infield D even if he can’t do much with the bat at the
outset. Ramirez is hitting .204/.245/.286 right now…can Lindor really do much
worse than that?

3.At
some point in mid-late May, if Lonnie Chisenhall still isn’t hitting, call up
Gio Urshela to play 3B. Even after hitting his first HR of the season on Friday
against the Tigers, Chiz was hitting a paltry .204/.245/.306. That includes a
.167/.212/.300 line against southpaws. He’s been better in the field this year
(in a small sample), but came in at -1.5 WAR in the field in 2014. Urshela
could be an elite defender at 3B, and even if he manages a .550 OPS he’d at
least be giving the offense the same “help” that Chisenhall has provided this
year. As an added bonus, Urshela hits right handed, which would help settle
some of the villagers with pitchforks lining up outside of Chris Antonetti’s
house demanding a less lefty-heavy lineup.

Will any of these moves actually happen? Probably
not in the near-term, especially with Urshela just coming off the DL for AAA
Columbus this past week. But something needs to be done to improve the defense
before it’s too late. The Indians cannot win the AL Central in April/May, but
it’s possible that they could lose it if this skid lasts much longer. What’s
funny to me is that they Indians very quickly recognized that they had a more
talented pitcher in AAA (Salazar) who could take a rotation spot from a guy who
was scuffling out of the gate (McAllister), and immediately made a move to fix
it. That move has proven effective thus far, with Salazar making two
superlative starts, going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 21 K in 13 innings. Why the
team’s brain trust can act so quickly to fill a hole in the rotation but can’t
seem to do the same for the defense is baffling to me. Hopefully a fix comes
sooner rather than later. It’s a long season and this is still a very talented
baseball team, but the defense could again prove to be the Achilles heel that
keeps them for making a run deep into October.

With all that being said, Mike Petriello of
Fangraphs ran an interesting article earlier this week suggesting that the
Indians defense might not be as bad as the numbers would indicate early this
season. The Indians rank 28th in baseball with -12 defensive runs
saved, but -7 of those come directly from the pitcher position. That’s
ridiculously high, the worst in all of baseball. As Petriello explains:

24
of the 30 teams are within a relatively narrow -2 to 2 range, simply because
it’s so early and no one’s had the time to be that bad. But Cleveland’s
pitchers have dragged down the overall team score to such a degree that if we
looked only at non-pitcher DRS, they’d be tied with the Pirates at 23rd. Not
that ranking 23 out of 30 in anything is something to be proud of, but when
you’re coming from as far back as this group was last year, you’ll take what
you can get.

~snip~

What
we know, certainly, is that the defensive numbers aren’t perfect, especially
this early. What we know, even more certainly, is that defense has been an
ongoing issue for this team for a few years. Right now, it’s just too simple to
look at “close to last place in DRS” and make the judgement of a disaster.
Pitchers and minor leaguers and out-of-position infielders are making that look
worse than it needs to be. It’s not the same thing as having a playoff-caliber
defense, though. Not the same thing at all.

So the defense, while not great, has been better
than last season. It’s still not where it needs to be, but if the AAA cavalry
can come up and improve the overall profile even more, that could be enough to
vault the Indians back into contention in the AL Central. The starting pitching
is going to give them a chance in virtually every game this season, and the
lineup should come around eventually. The big question mark remains the D, and
that’s something that can be improved with cheap, young, internal options.

I
did not write about the Indians because I love Cleveland, but because I was
asked to write about Cleveland. That was lucky. I love Cleveland, starting with
Major League, duh, and continuing
to this day. I have gone to Cleveland for fun on several occasions, and I have
had such delirious good times that I have nothing but good things to say about
it.

~snip~

Anyway,
this year’s Indians are a construction marvel. Nearly the entire starting
roster spot is filled by a reasonably paid, above-average baseball player in
his prime. What the front office, led by Chris Antonetti, lacks in maneuvering
room with its roster, it makes up for in construction efficiency, save for Nick
Swisher and Michael Bourn, the albatrii in the outfield.

~snip~

It’s
so simple that it’s brilliant, and in a way it renders a lot of analysis —
well, not meaningless, but certainly less dense. The Sox’s rotation is one you
could make from reading the stats on old baseball cards, and the Indians have
shown that if you get guys who are just good enough, one of them might go from
relatively anonymous starter to Cy Young Award winner, and a second to do it
the next year, and, voila, you’re contenders, at least to your enthusiastic
biographers. To them, to me, the Indians are exciting: a team primed to reach
its peak.

The Indians have won 177 games in the two seasons
since Terry Francona took the helm, with the Red Sox claiming 168 victories.
Each team has claimed one playoff appearance. The Red Sox are off to a better
start this season, but I’ll take the Indians pitching over the Red Sox by a
landslide. It’ll be interesting to see how these two clubs stand at the end of
the season. The Red Sox have a better lineup and will be able to trade for
pitching reinforcements (possibly Cole Hamels). The Indians have better
pitching and have prospect help on the way for the lineup and defense (Lindor,
Ramsey, Urshela). Both clubs figure to be better in September than they are right
now. With they each claim a playoff slot as they did in 2013?

It’s not directly Indians-related, but we’ll stick
in the Central Division for a look at just how thoroughly the Royals
embarrassed themselves in their series with the A’s last week. Much digital ink
has been spilled on this topic, but
for my money the best effort was from Giants SB Nation writer Grant Brisbee.
Brisbee is normally both funny and insightful, so it’s not too much of a
surprise that he was able to nail this particular topic. He provides two very
helpful videos illustrating just how bad things were back in the “good old
days,” one of Joe Morgan and one of Hal McRae. Each of these instances, were
they to occur today, would likely melt the internet and cause Twitter to
explode. Literally, not figuratively, explode. Please go watch them if you
haven’t already. Brisbee correctly judges Lawrie’s slide as bad but not
egregious, and Yordano Ventura’s ensuing HBP as silly, but predictable.
Ventura’s fake tough-guy walk towards Lawrie after the HBP inexplicably
escalated the situation, but Lawrie pretty much just took his base and the
whole thing was over. Or so we thought.

The next day, Kelvin Herrera inexplicably threw at
Lawrie again, in the 8th inning of a 2-1 game. He threw at him
twice, and the second pitch was at or above the shoulders. Regardless of what
Lawrie did or did not do, this foolishly re-ignited a situation that was over
and done with. He also threw at Lawrie’s head, something that is both extremely
stupid and extremely dangerous. Fellow fake tough-guy Salvador Perez then got
up in Lawrie’s face when he (rightly) took exception to being targeted for
assassination, but only after the umpire got between them and prevented any
actual physical altercation from taking place. Lawrie again remained calm until
Herrera pointed at his head, as if to say to Lawrie “I just tried to kill you
by striking you in the head with a 100 MPH fastball,” to which Lawrie pretty
naturally took exception to and started yelling at Herrera. I feel like this
can’t be stated enough; Herrera’s pitch to Lawrie registered triple-digits on
the radar gun. It could have literally killed him.

Lawrie seems like a bit of a nutcase. That doesn’t
excuse the fact that the Royals matched and then far-escalated his nuttiness in
some misguided attempt to…well, I’m not sure what exactly they were attempting
to prove. That they’re tougher than the A’s? Crazier? All of the above? Herrera
should be suspended for 50 games, but he won’t because steroids are somehow
worse than trying to kill someone with a 100 MPH fastball. He got a 5 game
suspension, which clearly didn’t send the message to KC because Yordano Ventura
felt the need to start a fight against the White Sox this past Thursday.
Ventura fielded a comebacker to the mound off the bat of Adam Eaton, and inexplicably
felt the need to hang on to the ball and scream at Eaton while he was running
to first. When this (naturally) escalated into both benches clearing, Ventura
ran away and looked downright confused as to what he did wrong. The Royals are
becoming the least-likeable team in baseball, and they show no signs of
relinquishing that title any time soon.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Regrettably, I did not have time to work up a proper
Lazy Sunday for you all this week. I was busy building my backyard shrine to
Jerry Sands. We have a popular pre-season playoff pick struggling despite a
strong showing by their highly-regarded rotation (with one exception). The
defense has been scuffling, and the lineup just isn’t producing, and it’s tough
to pinpoint exactly why. The bullpen has been touched up a little, and it’s
unclear who can be the 8th inning bridge to the young, talented
closer. But enough about the 1-4 Washington Nationals, you’re here to read
about the 2-3 Cleveland Indians.

Judging solely by the twitterverse, it may surprise
some of you to learn that the Indians are 2-3 and not 2-30. Frustrating losses
to the Tigers seem to be a foregone conclusion at this point, and yesterday’s
was particularly galling. Corey Kluber deserved better than a no-decision, and
the Indians were leading against the Tigers ace before the bullpen gave it back
and then some. The Tribe battled back to tie it on the heroics of Little Jerry
Sands, and then Cody Allen of all people got touched up in the 9th
to finally put the game out of reach. Worst of all, the 9th inning
saw Yan Gomes hit the deck in pain, with a sprained knee at least and an MRI
today to determine if there’s any serious structural damage. Knees are
important for catchers (#analysis!), and if Gomes misses an extended amount of
time, the Indians lose their best right-handed hitter and a crucial defender
behind the dish. All is not lost at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario, but it’s
also tough to imagine the first homestand going much worse.

I was in Woodbridge, VA on Thursday for a cold and
wet MiLB opening day. The Indians new high-A affiliate, the Lynchburg Hillcats,
were in town to take on the Potomac Nationals. Dylan Baker started on the mound
for the Hillcats, and was backed by a stacked lineup featuring Clint Frazier,
Mike Papi, Bradley Zimmer, Nellie Rodriguez, Eric Haase and more. Some
quick-hit thoughts on the game:

·

I’ve seen two of Dylan Baker’s starts as
a professional, spanning 11 innings of work, and I’ve yet to see him allow a
hit. He walked Jayson Werth in the first inning on Thursday, and didn’t allow
another baserunner after that. Baker was sitting comfortably in the 94-96 MPH
range with his fastball, touching 97. He was up in the zone in the 1st
inning, but settled down and spotted the pith effectively in the zone after
that. His slider was a little inconsistent but flashed plus, and he mixed in a
few curveballs as well. He only threw a handful of changeups, but saved the
best one for the rehabbing Werth’s 2nd AB. He had Werth way out
front on a CH to run the count to 1-2, then came back with a 96 MPH fastball on
the inside corner for a called strike 3. Baker struck out a career-high 9, and
the 23-year old looks to be ready for AA Akron sooner rather than later.

·Clint Frazier is back to his toe-tapping
ways, similar to his plate approach in high school. He played around with a leg
kick last year, going with a big leg kick, small leg kick and finally settling
back on the toe-tap as a timing mechanism. The bat speed is electric no matter
how he triggers his swing, and the power potential is evident even when you’re
watching him take swings in the cage. Frazier collected a pair of hits last
night, both on line-drives up the middle. The first was a liner just to the
right of the second baseman, and the second was a hard line drive to the right
of the shortstop. Frazier still has a very aggressive approach, attacking the
first pitch in 2 of his 5 AB, and got caught out on his front foot a couple of
times. His 5th AB was his best of the night, as he was able to stay
back on a pitch on the outer half and line a hard single through the 5.5 hole
to the right of the shortstop. I think that having a consistent mechanical
approach to hitting will help Frazier in 2015, as constant swing tinkering can
make things tough on a young hitter. I still expect him to collect his fair
share of strikeouts, especially in the pitcher-friendly Carolina League, but
he’s going to hit some home runs as well. He’s a talented, confident young kid,
and he’s going to be a big part of the Indians future.

·Eric Haase has long been a favorite of
mine, and last night did nothing to change that. Haase was consistently popping
sub-2.0 in his throws to 2B between innings, showing off a plus arm and
excellent footwork. His receiving is still a little raw, as he was stabbing at
breaking pitches a little more than I’d like, but that’s something that should
improve with time. At the plate, Haase was 1-5, but the hit was a triple that
he smoked into the gap and then flashed his above-average (especially for a
catcher!) speed in legging out the three-bagger.

·Yesterday was the first time I’ve seen
Bradley Zimmer live and in person, and he did not disappoint. Zimmer went 1-3
with two walks and a K, and I came away impressed with his size and swing
mechanics. Zimmer starts with a slightly open stance and triggers with a short
stride to close himself up and brings his hands quickly down through the zone.
He has a little more leverage in the swing than I expected, and I can
definitely see 20 HR in his bat once he adds a little more weight to his 6’4”
frame. There’s no wasted movement in his swing, and he should be able to make
consistent contact throughout his career. He’s a plus runner and a very good
athlete, and really looks smooth out in CF.

·Mike Papi struck out once and drew three
walks in 5 plate appearances last night. He wasn’t passive at the plate, he
just didn’t get much worth swinging at. He has a compact swing that should
generate plenty of contact, and I’m excited to see more of him in game action.

·Robbie Aviles pitched better than his
score line would indicate (1 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 4 H, 3 K, BB). Only one of the
hits he allowed was a hard-hit ball, and he was a victim of the BABIP gods on
the other three. He was working mostly in the 90-92 MPH range and showing nice
arm-side run on his 2-seamer. It was the first time I’d seen Aviles pitch, and
he gets some deception with his cross-body delivery. He had a 2.55 ERA in 84
2/3 IP for Lake County last year, and is an intriguing potential bullpen arm.

·Nellie Rodriguez went 1-5 with a double
down the LF line last night, and his swing looks a little shorter than the last
time I saw him. The weather robbed us of an opportunity to see his raw power
displayed in BP, but I should be able to see he and Frazier duel for BP
supremacy next week in Frederick.

·The #MiLBProblems hashtag was in full
effect last night. It was a chilly day that turned into a cold (~40 degrees)
night, and there was a steady drizzle that fell throughout the game. That was
miserable enough, but to make things worse, the power in the LF lights went out
with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. I’m told there was a 40
min delay, but I wasn’t going to stick around to see it. Even with the subpar
weather, it was great to get back out to the fields and check out some of the
Indians up-and-coming talent on opening day. I’ll be out in Frederick next week
to see Lynchburg take on the Frederick Keys, and here’s hoping the sun will be
out this time around

Sunday, April 05, 2015

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the last Lazy
Sunday before baseball. Real, actual, regular season baseball. Michael Bourn
will dig in the box and The Klubot will toe the rubber Monday night in Texas,
and the most anticipated Indians season since…well, since last season…will
begin in earnest. Expectations for this year’s Indians club are sky-high, with
a series of national outlets and writers picking the Indians to dethrone the
Tigers atop the AL Central, and some picking them to go even further than that.
Putting the jokes about curses and jinxes aside (they are jokes, right?), it’s
great to see the team that the Indians have built getting recognition as a
potential AL powerhouse. Especially when you consider they sport the lowest
payroll in the division, and that by a healthy margin. The Indians have less
money committed to their 2015 roster ($86 million) than the Tigers have
committed to their 2018 roster ($92 million). That’s just crazy, especially
when you consider that $92 million will pay for just three players to actually
play for the Tigers in 2018. Justin Verlander (who will be 35 in 2018), Miguel
Cabrera (34) and Victor Martinez (39) all combine to make $82 million, and the
Tigers are on the hook for at least a $5 million buyout for Ian Kinsler (35)
and Anibal Sanchez (34). Those are talented players, but their best days are
likely behind them right now, and they’ll continue to decline over the next 3+
years. Meanwhile, the Indians have an impressive collection of young talent
under control through the 2017 season (and beyond, in most cases), including
Corey Kluber, Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, Carlos Santana, Trevor Bauer, Cookie
Carrasco, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and more. The Indians are
well-positioned to contend this year, and are built to last. Unlike our
neighbors to the northwest.

Given that the
season hasn’t started yet, I feel comfortable saying three things: (1) I agree
with the projections insofar as they think the AL Central race is going to be
close; (2) if everything goes right for every team, the Tigers are still the
best squad in the division; (3) I don’t think everything’s going to go right
for the Tigers this year…

…Like individual
human beings, baseball teams can temporarily stave off the ravages of time if
they try hard enough. So, maybe the Tigers have another run in them. They
certainly deserve another shot, considering that unlike those Phillies, Braves,
and Yankees teams, they haven’t won a World Series in this stretch of success.
But any respite would be temporary, because only time is undefeated.

Things are already starting to go wrong for the
Tigers, as Justin Verlander is set to open the season on the DL. This is the
first time in his career he’s made a trip to the disabled list, and it’s for a
triceps, not an elbow, so it’s entirely possible that Verlander will be back
and starting when the Tigers come to Cleveland for the first home stand of the
season. But even if healthy, which Verlander are the Tigers going to get moving
forward? The 120 ERA+ guy who threw 218 innings in 2013? Or the 88 ERA+ guy who
threw 206 innings last year. Verlander churned out an AL-high 1172
regular-season innings from 2009-2013, and was one of the best pitchers in
baseball during that time. Will we look back on his subpar 2014 as a blip on
the radar similar to his 2008 (92 ERA+)? Or will we see it as the beginning of
the end for a now-32 year old warhorse (who is still owed $140 million over the
next 5 years)? Time will tell, but the fact that we’re even asking the question
shows you that the Tigers aren’t their usual, invincible selves heading into
2015.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Staying in the AL Central for now,
Anthony Castrovice took a look around the division in an attempt to identify
the keys for each club headed into 2015. There are few (if any)
reporters in the baseball universe that know the division better than Castro,
so if you haven’t read the entire piece, that’s something you should remedy as
soon as possible. Unsurprisingly, Castro singles out defensive improvement as
the Indians key to success in 2015, particularly from infielders Lonnie
Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis. Kipnis’ health is a huge story going into 2015, as
the Indians are a completely different team with 2013 Kip in the #2 slot in the
lineup and in the field than they are with 2014 Kip.

Don’t believe me? Well,
2013 Kipnis was an all-star, 11th in MVP voting and was worth 5.9
WAR per Baseball Reference. Meanwhile, 2014 Kipnis missed 33 games, played
injured in many of the rest of those games, and was worth 0.9 WAR. It’s
entirely reasonable to look at that and say if Kipnis were healthy and
effective last year, the Indians would’ve made the playoffs (they finished just
3 games out of the 2nd Wild Card). He’s as important as any player
on the roster right now, and is hopefully healthy out of spring training this
year.

As you no doubt know by now, I missed out on a trip
to spring training this year for the first time since 2009. The absence of that
trip really made the offseason drag on, and more importantly it prevented me
from getting looks at any of the youngsters the way I usually do. Missing out
on my first look at the 2014 draftees is bad enough, but not getting a chance
to see the improvements and mechanical tweaks made by some of the more
established players might be even more disappointing. Fortunately, we have
access to the next best thing, as the Baseball Prospectus prospect team made a
group trip to AZ and wrote up their thoughts on several Indians prospects. Tucker
Blair spent a day in Goodyear, and came away particularly
impressed with RHP Dylan Baker (video in the link):

He has a sturdy
frame with a power bottom, which he uses for heavy drive towards home. In this
outing, Baker was pumping his fastball 95-98 mph, steamrolling through the
Reds’ lineup. The fastball was a tick higher than in the past, displaying
explosion and coming off a good plane. The curveball was also improved since my
last viewing, displaying hard bite and depth at 81-84 mph.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Blair also wrote up his thoughts on 2014 1st
round pick Bradley Zimmer (good!) and power 1B prospect Nellie Rodriguez (not
as good!) in that article, so it’s more than worth your time. In addition to
Tucker’s fine work, BP
fantasy/prospect experts Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein had a back-and-forth
regarding Indians catching prospect Francisco Mejia.
Goldstein has long loved Mejia, and this was Carsley’s first look at the
diminutive young backstop. Carsley came away underwhelmed (SSS alert!) and that
caused a bit of a visceral reaction from Craig (who does visceral reactions
better than most). Carsley listed Mejia as the player that he came away from
spring training liking less than he did before, resulting in Goldstein listing
Carsley in that same “disappointment” category. Carsley did caveat his write-up
by saying that Mejia is a better real-life prospect than he is a fantasy
prospect (mainly because of the defense), so no need to attack him in the
twitterverse for being a hack of a talent evaluator and an unabashed Red Sox
homer. However, if you did want to do that, here’s his twitter page.

More
bad rotation news for the Indians this week, as it was revealed that Josh
Tomlin will be on the shelf for at least 3-4 months after surgery on the AC
joint in his shoulder. Tomlin’s shoulder was apparently
bothering him early in camp, but he was able to get back on the mound after a
cortisone shot in March. The injury kept bothering him though, and it
eventually became too much to overcome. The Indians vaunted SP depth takes
another hit, as the number of contenders for the rotation dips down to 8, and
that includes Shawn Marcum and Bruce Chen. Danny Salazar is the clear #6 guy
now, and will be the first called to Cleveland if injury or ineffectiveness
strikes a member of the Indians rotation. I still feel like Zach McAllister
will eventually end up in the bullpen with Salazar taking his slot in the
rotation, as Salazar just has too much upside not to work his way up to the
North Coast at some point in 2015.

Baseball Prospectus took an insightful look at the
Kris Bryant-Cubs disagreement this week. Goldstein looks at
Bryant, the Cubs, and the system in general, and comes to the conclusion that
the Cubs are keeping Bryant in the minors to open the 2015 season to exercise
an additional year of control over him and thus save ownership some money. He
also says (rightly) that this is the correct decision and one that pretty much
every team in baseball should/would make. From Goldstein’s article:

It's important
to note that when people talk about control, what they're really talking about
is money. The Cubs have the opportunity to retain Bryant for a seventh year
without keeping him in the minors—it's simply a more expensive option. So keep
in mind that when your favorite team doesn't promote a top prospect, it's
because somewhere along the line, someone decided that saving money was the
priority. Also keep in mind that the way the system is set up, the team is
almost certainly making the smart decision. And that's the whole damn problem.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

This applies to the Indians as well, in the context
of top prospect Francisco Lindor. Like the Cubs, the Indians have a player in
place with MLB experience (Mike Olt for the Cubs, Jose Ramirez for the Indians) and no real reason
to start the clock on their player on opening day. If (when) Olt or Ramirez
falter, the club can bring up their uber-prospect to take the place of the MLB
guy, and not lose a year of team control. Superagent Scott Boras argues that
this is the wrong thing to do from a moral perspective (conveniently, Bryant is
a client of his), but that’s not what we’re here to argue. It’s the best
business decision for the Cubs, a team that has money coming out of their ears.
For a small market club like the Indians, it’s an absolute no-brainer. Lindor
is pretty much ready to contribute at the major league level, especially with
the glove. That’ll almost certainly happen at some point in 2015. But it’d be
silly for that to happen on April 6, or really anytime before May 1 unless
someone gets hurt.

The
Indians put out the opening day rosters for all of their full-season affiliates
on Friday, which is always one of the most anticipated events
of the spring (for me at least). There weren’t too many surprises, and all four
of the clubs will have some intriguing talent. Lindor, Urshela, Danny Salazar
and James Ramsey are all in AAA Columbus, an injury away from Cleveland. Erik
Gonzalez replaces Lindor at SS for Akron, and will be joined by two of my
personal favorites in Tony Wolters and Justin Toole. High-A Lynchburg is
probably the most loaded affiliate, as their outfield of Clint Frazier, Bradley
Zimmer and Mike Papi will bring scouts from miles around, and their starting
rotation of Dylan Baker, Mitch Brown, Luis Lugo and Adam Plutko will be fun to
watch as well. Low-A Lake County has Francisco Mejia, which is more than enough
for me. Joining Mejia will be Justus Sheffield, Bobby Bradley, Sean Brady, Dace
Kime and Yu-Cheng Chang. No matter which minor league affiliate you go out and
watch, you’re going to get to look at players who are going to be a big part of
the Indians future. I get to see Lynchburg next week on minor league opening
day when they come to Potomac, and watching Zimmer and Frazier dig into the
batter’s box against Lucas Giolito is going to be a LOT of fun.

As I alluded to in the introduction, lots of people
outside the friendly confines of NE Ohio are picking the Indians to do well
this year. Some are predicting a wild card, some have them winning the
division, and a few are even going out on a limb and calling for a World Series
championship, which would of course be the first since 1948. Predictions, plus
$3, can usually get you a medium cup of black coffee at Starbucks, but they’re
fun to look at nonetheless. To save time and space, we’re going to go lighting
round with many of these predictions in an effort to knock out as many as
possible.

Fangraphs’
prediction model has the Indians beating out the Tigers for the Central by one
game. I’m not sure
my heart can handle a do-or-die game 162, so hopefully they clinch before the
last day of the season. They give the Indians a 43% change at the division, 14%
chance for the wild card, and a 7% chance to win the World Series. By my
(usually bad) math, that means they have a better than even (57%) shot at the
playoffs. They do caveat their prediction with a warning though; “But despite
the old proverb, the road to hell is actually paved with teams who built their
rosters around young pitching; this could also go really, really wrong.”

In addition to Fangraphs computer projections
picking the Indians,
their writers seem to be big fans as well. Of their 38
writers, 24 pick the Indians to claim the AL Central crown. Another 11 peg them
as a Wild Card, making that 35 out of 38 possible votes for the Indians in the
playoffs in one form or another. That puts them at the top of the American
League, one ahead of Boston’s 34.

All
45 members of the Baseball Prospectus staff made their predictions on Friday,
with 22 of those 45 picking the Indians to win the Central Division. Two of
them, sandwich guru
Craig Goldstein and pitching guru Doug
Thorburn, are picking the Tribe to win it all. That doesn’t
sound like many, but consider that the Indians are one of only 3 teams to get
more than one vote to take home the hardware at the end of the season. A
whopping 24 of 45 writers picked the Nationals, and 14 are taking the Dodgers.
The cumulative voting from BP has Corey Kluber 4th in the AL Cy
Young race (3 1st place votes) and Michael Brantley tied for 9th
in MVP voting (1 1st place vote). Shadev Sharma,
a man after my own heart, gives Yan Gomes his 3rd place AL MVP vote.

The
crew over at Yahoo.com’s “Big League Stew” make their predictions,
and noted White Sox fan Chris Cwik has the Indians at the top of the division.
So does Mark Townsend. Mike Oz tries to temper our expectations by picking them
third, but I’m way beyond tempering at this point. They also look at the Lindor
question and examine whether Cookie Carrasco’s newfound slider will translate
to success in 2015.

Saving the best(?) for last; none
other than Sports Illustrated picked the Indians to win not only the division,
but the World Series this year. They were nice enough
to put CyKluber and Michael Brantley on the cover of their fine publication,
which naturally caused the population of NE Ohio to have a collective minor
meltdown. SI
themselves found this amusing enough to post an article,
complete with some of the more colorful tweets on the subject (including one
from yours truly). Let me briefly clarify my stance on the subject; there’s no
such thing as curses. There’s no Cleveland Curse. There’s no Curse of Rocky
Colavito. There is no SI Cover Jinx. I think it’s funny that SI picked the
Indians as the best team in baseball the same year they lost 101 games, and I
still love Corey Snyder. That pretty much sums it up. The Indians have a young,
talented, exciting roster that’s built to contend in 2015 and beyond. If they
don’t win it all, it’ll be because another team was better, not because of some
jinx (or
even jixes). Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to tweak those
last-min fantasy lineups, double-check to make sure my MLBTV account is up and
running, and sit and stare at the clock, willing it to speed up and get to 7pm
on Monday already…