“Northern nationalism has shifted its view on the continued viability of the Northern Irish state.” A referendum is imminent and preparation essential for a unified Ireland. “A no-deal Brexit will lead to an instant call for a referendum…. If that happens, we’re into uncharted waters. That scenario is still only a few weeks away.” If there is a Brexit deal, “then the next census, due in 2021, will show a nationalist majority. At that point, it’s hard to see how a British secretary of state could resist calls for a border poll.”

“Whatever happens on March 29—a no-deal Brexit, a delay to the departure or some kind of agreement—the U.K. faces a slow but steady erosion to its position as the European center of looking after other people’s money….. However Brexit plays out, the U.K. fund management industry will be a long-term loser from the fallout.”

“Thursday’s about-face sounded alarms about a global slowdown that caught officials off guard.” On Thursday, the ECB “unveiled a new economic rescue package, citing a darkening outlook driven by a slowdown in China, fears that the United Kingdom will make a chaotic exit from the European Union and aftershocks from President Trump’s tariff wars.”

“With no deal in sight as Britain’s March 29 exit date approaches, supermarkets are stockpiling, working on alternative supplies and testing new routes to cope with an expected logjam at the borders but say they face insurmountable barriers.” One of the biggest is that you simply can’t stockpile fresh produce and other perishables. “Intense competition and slim margins in the British supermarket sector have also made contingency planning more complicated.”

“The British Pound is under pressure ahead of the weekend, holding the title of the worst-performing major G10 currency over the course of the past five trading days. Losses come as the government suffered a symbolic defeat…with pro-Brexit MPs voting against a motion tabled by the government.”

“Official figures from the Dutch investment agency show 42 companies relocated to the Netherlands last year citing Brexit as the reason. The investment has resulted in 1,923 jobs and €290m in investment. Sony and Panasonic have also announced plans to set up their European headquarters in the country.” But the good news may not last. “The Netherlands is likely to be one of the biggest EU losers from a hard Brexit given the close trading links between the two countries especially in fresh produce and the importance of Rotterdam, Europe’s busiest port, to British trade.”

“GDP growth slipped to its lowest since 2012, at 1.4%, down from 1.8% in 2017.” The UK’s dismal performance in 2018 gave the lie to “Philip Hammond’s claim that Britain can reap an economic dividend from Theresa May’s Brexit deal…as official figures confirmed the UK has suffered its worst year for GDP growth since 2012.”

“Donald Tusk should be criticised not for his malice, but his moderation. The European council president triggered a tsunami of confected outrage from leavers today when he observed, with some justice, that there should be a special place in hell for those who promoted Brexit without a plan. But he should have said far more. He should have added that, within that special place, there should be an executive suite of sleepless torment for those politicians who promoted Brexit without ever giving a stuff about Ireland.”