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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 1994
RECON PLANE FOUND A 998 MB CENTER WITH STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH
ANS EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGES AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT GORDON HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN STRUCTURE
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASE IN BANDING
FEATURES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE GORDON IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT GORDON WILL MOVE SLOWLY ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER... WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A SHORT WAVE...MODELS BECOME DIVERGENT. OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS A NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HOURS AND
ASSUMES THAT THE SHORT WAVE WILL TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SO A SUBSTANTIAL
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS NOT LIKELY.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/2100Z 25.3N 82.4W 45 KTS
12HR VT 16/0600Z 26.1N 83.2W 50 KTS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 26.8N 83.3W 50 KTS
36HR VT 17/0600Z 27.3N 83.0W 50 KTS
48HR VT 17/1800Z 28.0N 82.0W 45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1800Z 29.0N 80.0W 45 KTS
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