The annual ‘red tape’, or tariff and non-tariff, costs of Brexit for EU27 exporters is around £31billion and for UK exporters is around £27billion even after initial steps to mitigate costs have been taken. This is proportionately 4 times larger for the UK as a percentage of Gross Value Added (GVA ).

70 percent of the aggregate impact falls in just five sectors in both the EU27 and UK.

Disproportional impacts in specific regions such as Bavaria in Germany and London in the UK.

A future customs arrangement equivalent to The Customs Union reduces the EU27 impact to around £14billon and the UK impact to around £17billon. Mitigating the costs of Brexit are non-trivial and impacted firms need to be taking steps now. Small firms will be least able to mitigate these costs and in turn pose risks to their supply chain.

BRUSSELS and LONDON, 12 March 2018 – In a unique assessment of the business costs of Brexit, Oliver Wyman and Clifford Chance have partnered to calculate the impact of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on companies if the EU27 and UK reverted to a World Trade Organisation (WTO) trading relationship with each other.

The ‘red-tape’ cost of Brexitestimates that the direct costs will total around £31billon for EU exporters and around £27billon for UK exporters, with non-tariff barriers accounting for more of the effect than tariffs. The report focusses only on the direct impacts of the UK’s exit from the EU which are of immediate importance to companies for Brexit planning. It does not model additional impacts such as migration, pricing changes or third country Free Trade Agreements, which are likely to increase the overall impact.

In the EU27 the hardest hit sector will be automotive, where the direct impact will be around 2 percent of current GVA. Country level differences will vary considerably, with Ireland’s agricultural sector’s exposure to UK consumers, for example, a particular pinch point. In Germany, four of the sixteen states – Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden –Wuerttemberg, and Lower Saxony – will shoulder around 70 percent of the country’s direct impacts as a result of exports to the UK that arise from their leading global positions in automotive and manufacturing.

In the UK the Financial Services sector will take by far the biggest hit, incurring around a third of the extra ‘red-tape’ costs. However, there are very significant impacts in other sectors where firms are highly integrated into European supply chains – for example in the automotive, aerospace, chemicals and metals and mining sectors.

Kumar Iyer, Partner, Oliver Wyman, says: “There will be both winners and losers from Brexit. In order to navigate the uncertainty companies should be thinking about impacts under different scenarios both operationally and strategically. We see the best prepared firms taking hedges now based on the direct impacts on themselves, their supply chains, customers and competitors. Unfortunately we see that small firms are least able to take these steps at present.”

The impact assessment also reveals that the ability to mitigate the impacts of post-Brexit trade barriers will vary by sector and company size. Before designing their response, firms need to think through the impact on different levels: operations, supply chains, customers and competitors. Small firms will find this particularly challenging especially where they have no non-EU trade experience and may be rendered uncompetitive as they seek to make the changes needed. Automotive and aerospace industries will be able to localise supply chains and take advantage of domestic suppliers in some areas but with the loss of “passporting” financial services will require relevant front and back-office staff to relocate to the EU. However, even within each industry individual impacts and the appropriate response are highly variable. The differences will depend on things like the mix of goods and services the business sells, where it is based, where its customers are, and how complex its supply chain is.

Jessica Gladstone, Partner, Clifford Chance, says: “Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Given the difficulty of knowing exactly what turbulence lies ahead many businesses are putting Brexit in the ‘too hard’ box. However, exporters that understand exactly what Brexit’s risks and rewards could be for them will be able to implement the right plans at the right time to ensure that they are one of the winners rather than one of the losers.”

AFME, together with Clifford Chance, has today published guidance to assist bank clients in understanding how their cross-border relationships may be impacted by banks’ plans to adapt to Brexit.

The FAQs explain the potential significant impact on contractual relationships for financial services, providing answers to a number of “Frequently Asked Questions” which highlight potential operational and documentation impacts. As banks begin implementing their Brexit contingency plans, clients are likely to see impacts in respect of existing cross-border contracts and will be required to put in place arrangements for new business following Brexit.

The FAQs address questions such as which clients may be in scope, which contracts may be affected, how they may be impacted and consequential operational impacts that need to be considered.

Simon Lewis, Chief Executive of AFME said: “With the Brexit political process still ongoing, our FAQs document highlights the need for clients to take action now by reviewing documentation and operations to understand how they might be impacted, including whether operations may need to change. This is to ensure that clients have sufficient lead time to address documentation, technical and other issues for minimal business disruption.In this respect, AFME continues to call for clarity that clients will be able to rely on services under existing contracts post-Brexit.”

Monica Sah, Partner at Clifford Chance, said: “Six months ago nobody was talking about repapering. Now people realise that moving contracts from one jurisdiction to another is likely to be a significant undertaking as banks adapt to Brexit. These FAQs attempt to simplify a hugely complex process and help clients understand how their day to day contractual activities will be impacted by their dealers’ implementation of their own Brexit strategies. Clients need to work with their dealers to ensure a smooth transition and a continued seamless service.”

The FAQs primarily focus on questions relevant to EU27 clients of UK-based banks in relation to sales and trading in wholesale markets and related credit given for settlement purposes. The FAQs also highlight questions for UK-based clients of EU27-based banks, and primary market and financial market infrastructure impacts.

Twenty-four banks are already planning to expand their Frankfurt business ahead of the upcoming Brexit – but the actors cannot rest on their laurels, reminds CDU executive committee member Jens Spahn. Especially opposite Paris, Hesse and Berlin would have to exert themselves. There is still much to be done on the Main.

The Parliamentary State Secretary of the Federal Minister for Special Tasks, Jens Spahn, emphasized on Wednesday at an event of the Hessian CDU how important the further development of the Financial Centre Frankfurt is for the federal government in Berlin. Politicians must work even harder to maintain the metropolis’s leading position, he said. Spahn referred to Germany’s failed attempt to bring EU banking supervisor, EBA, from London to Frankfurt. Instead, Paris won the bid in November. In view of Brexit, and a possible resulting shift in euro clearing, Frankfurt must be more successful than EBA, said the 37-year-old, who was still working as State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Finance until October.

In order to make the Financial Centre Frankfurt more attractive, some things must be done on site, he said, recalling housing construction and labor law adjustments, especially for investment bankers. In contrast to other EU member states, the Federal Government is still keen to maintain a close relationship with the British in the future. However, it is not yet clear which access to the financial market the British choose: London, like Singapore, could become a financial centre whose looser regulation attracts business or anchor itself to the rules of the EU area.

Money for a light bulb

The phase of confrontation with the digitalization of the financial sector is over: Fintechs pivoted to cooperation with established actors – for which Spahn himself launched a number of initiatives and contributed to bringing the banks into dialogue with Fintechs. His motto: “Talking to each other is half the battle.” Speaking several times about the subject of blockchain, Spahn pointed out that the technology, which makes transactions comprehensible and without a central authority, allows him to see far-reaching changes possible. “Blockchain can make the business model of intermediaries completely superfluous.” Thanks to digital identity management, an investor can then also transfer money “to a light bulb in Malaysia,” said Spahn with a smile. He sees a need for action in the establishment of blockchain companies in Germany. Although a large number of software developers are at home in Berlin, the companies themselves (usually via foundation constructions) are at home in Switzerland – there is the so-called “Cryptovalley” in Zug.

After the Financial Centre event, Spahn made a stopover at the first Portfolio Day of the Deutsche Bundesbank. In his opinion, the German government is still at the beginning of sustainable finance. “Everything is still very timid in comparison to the demands and wishes,” he said. “With all our strength towards green finance is certainly not our motto.” In the recent exploratory coalition talks, Green Finance had been an issue, but in the economic not in the finance department. “However, it was just about a general commitment to it.”

Spahn pointed out three areas in which the federal government is already strengthening itself for sustainable investments: the fund for financing nuclear waste management, into which the nuclear power operators have paid around EUR 24 billion, is to be managed according to ESG criteria (environmental, social, governance). Secondly, sustainability is an issue for KfW, which is owned by the Federal Government and the Federal States: “In 2016,44% of KfW’s funding volume went to environmental and climate protection measures.” In addition, KfW is Germany’s largest and the world’s second largest issuer of green bonds and an important investor. Thirdly, during its G20 presidency, which just ended, Germany fought for a stronger focus on the issue of sustainable investment.

According to Spahn, public sponsors often have different ideas about what sustainability means. “There is certainly a consensus that there should be no investment in companies that rely on child labour. It’s more difficult when it comes to climate issues like nuclear power or coal.” He himself considers nuclear power to be an important bridge technology. “Should the question of how the state invests really be politicized?” He believes that market regulation is more important: the state must ensure transparency, for example. “That would be comparable to the electricity sector: only green electricity can call itself what green electricity is.”

Spahn also made it clear that for him, sustainable investment does not only consist of green capital investment and ESG criteria. This also included the security of the investment and financial market stability. “George W. Bush’s measures to promote home ownership were intended as a social measure, but ultimately contributed to the financial crisis.” Yield is also an important aspect. Spahn has long advocated a higher proportion of equities in federal funds such as the nursing care provision fund.

The Deutsches Aktieninstitut (DAI) presents its second position paper. The paper on the exit negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom complements the first position paper from February 2017 and covers further relevant topics, e.g. clearing, benchmark and rating. In the light of proceeding negotiations, the position paper claims to find transitional arrangements that prevent Europe from a Cliff Edge Scenario.

“The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will have considerable consequences for the European economy and society”, Dr. Christine Bortenschläger, Chief Executive of DAI mentions in the paper, “It is not yet possible to predict how those will look like in detail since the outcome of the ongoing negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union is still completely open. This means that companies are losing valuable time they need to adjust to the new situation.”

Risk and consequences of a hard Brexit can be reduced with transitional arrangements

The third country regimes in financial -and capital markets law won’t serve as a sufficient basis to regulate the relations between the 27 EU-states and the United Kingdom, as the second position paper shows. Therefore, the European Union needs a new and broad trading agreement that complements first transitional arrangements. “Transitional arrangements are of decisive importance to buy more negotiating time, enable businesses to prepare for the new situation, and avert a no-deal scenario”, is one of the first position paper sentences.

Renowned German trade associations today have published a digital, cross sectoral Brexit Compendium, with the aim of bundling the interests of the German economy. The position papers of participating trade associations on Brexit can be found on the respective website http://brexit-kompendium.de/en/, sorted by relevant topics.

The United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union will have far-reaching consequences on the European economy and society. In this regard, the concrete impact depends on the result of the Brexit negotiations.

The objective of the Brexit Compendium is to aggregate topic areas with high relevance for the economy in a reference work. To do so, the position papers of the participating trade associations have been pooled in one location. That way, political decision-makers and the interested public are provided with an easy access to problem analyses and solution proposals.

The trade associations contribute their specific topics and expertise to the project. They are independent in terms of content and stay responsible for their topics and publications.

WHU study quantifies the Brexit impact on the employment market

New jobs in the banking sector – that’s the expected result of impending relocations from London to Frankfurt. As early as June 24th, 2016, one day after the referendum, Frankfurt Main Finance estimated the potential repercussion of a Brexit decision to be up to 10 thousand new jobs for Frankfurt within the financial sector and its directly related services. Today, some people already regard this figure as too conservative. A job motor can also be expected in other fields, according to the findings of a study by WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management carried out on behalf of Frankfurt Main Finance. “It will be the multiplier effects on many areas of day-to-day life that will lead to a significant growth in employment above all in the Rhine-Main region,” explains Professor Lutz Johanning, who conducted the study together with Moritz C. Noll from the Chair of Empirical Capital Market Research. In this interview, both academics give us a deeper insight into the underlying calculations.

Prof. Johanning, what exactly is analysed in your study?

Lutz Johanning: We looked at the effects of the relocation of banking jobs in the wake of the Brexit decision on the employment market as a whole – for the City of Frankfurt, the towns and cities in its direct vicinity, and the Rhine-Main region. In the analysis, our focus was on the multiplier effects, i.e. what growth will result for other sectors and industries from an addition to the number of banking jobs. And the study shows that this effect is 2.1 to 8.8 times higher, depending on the area under consideration. Therefore, in the most optimistic case, if we assume ten thousand new bank jobs, up to 88 thousand new jobs can be created during the following four years in the Rhine-Main region.

Prof. Lutz Johanning: “The relocation of jobs doesn’t occur in isolation. People move their lives into a new city – with everything that involves.”

That’s a huge figure. How do you arrive at that result?

Moritz Noll: We extrapolated the existing statistical data on the employment market in Frankfurt and the region into the future with the help of an empirical model, taking the effects of the Brexit into account. To ascertain and arrive at meaningful figures for the purposes of further planning, we placed a high priority on two factors. Firstly, a valid data basis has been very important for us. Our study is therefore based on employment market data from the German Federal Employment Agency (BA) covering the past nine years. Secondly, we looked for statistical models that have already been effectively applied in the scientific community.

Moritz C. Noll: “Even though the Brexit is a unique occurrence, scientifically based models still exist that enable the repercussions for the employment market to be reliably assessed.”

Where did you find an appropriate solution? After all, the Brexit is an unprecedented event.

Noll: The Brexit is indeed unprecedented, but not the fact that jobs are moved to a new location as the result of changed basic conditions. There are, for instance, well-founded scientific analyses for the energy sector in the USA – bear in mind the topic of fracking. The resettlement of jobs to new locations is quite common in this context. The resulting repercussions, not only for the primary sector affected, but also in terms of the overall impact on a region have been frequently examined during the last few years. These models allow specific assumptions to be derived on which we have based our study.

Johanning: The indirect effects can be quantified with this approach. If a job at Bank X is moved from London to Frankfurt, this is not an isolated process. Rather, the person who occupies this position relocates his life into a new city – with everything that involves. He or she usually comes with a family, which means that all the corresponding needs have to be met. This begins with quite simple issues such as residential needs, schooling, training, and the requirements of daily consumption. But it also has wider structural implications – the keywords here are infrastructure, the educational system, the market for houses and flats.

Prof. Lutz Johanning: “The Rhine-Main region in particular will profit from the growth in jobs. Most of the additional jobs outside of the financial industry are more likely to occur in the areas around Frankfurt.”

Why are you so sure that the affected bankers will be transferring their primary place of residence to Frankfurt? After all, London isn’t all that far away.

Johanning: The same discussion took place a number of years ago in connection with the European Central Bank employees. The question then was also whether people will actually be moving to the Rhine-Main region or whether they will just be here to work. Experience shows that they come here to work and to live. That’s why this particular context has provided a best-practice example for many years, and this has served as an orientation for us in the study.

You have differentiated in your analysis – between Frankfurt, its immediate environs, and the region. What does this distinction reveal?

Johanning: Frankfurt will profit directly from the new jobs in the banking sector. That’s not a regional issue. The central office sites will be found in the city centre. Consequently, the effect here on other parts of the economy is also modest, around 2.1- to 3.4-fold. Bank-related services will also benefit during the course of development; but these services are often not located directly in the city, but in the immediate surroundings like Eschborn, Offenbach or other neighbouring cities. In addition, many people are looking for somewhere to live somewhat outside of Frankfurt. That, in turn, will benefit the neighbouring municipalities as well as the entire region. The larger the radius drawn, the more differentiated the effects and the greater the multiplier effect. Optimistically speaking, ten thousand new bank jobs in the city can generate up to 88 thousand new jobs in the Rhine-Main region.

The study mentions two models. What does that mean exactly?

Noll: We’ve made use of two models to assess the impact of the ten thousand new jobs in the financial sector on all the other industries. Model 1 takes a factor into account that dampens the growth effect to a greater degree. Model 2, on the other hand, does not include this factor, and the growth is estimated to be higher overall as a result. It was important for us to present the entire spectrum of possible results in the study.

You know the statistics in detail. In which industry will the effects have the greatest impact?

Johanning: It should be said to start with that Frankfurt is a region with a very high growth rate – even without the Brexit. The highest growth rates over the past few years have been recorded in the sectors of logistics, real estate and business services. These growth industries will be given an additional push through the Brexit effect. What cannot be deduced from our quantitative model, however, is which structural changes within the individual industries will lead to greater or less growth over the next few years.

Noll: In a further step, we examined with the help of our models how the long-term job growth rates differ with and without the Brexit. As a result, we were able to show that the long-term growth path is changed by an initial shock, i.e. the relatively sudden event of additional jobs flowing into the financial industry caused by the Brexit. This means that job expansion throughout the employment market as a whole can be significantly higher in the long term in the Brexit case than in a case without additional Brexit jobs. One can therefore see that the growth effects on the employment market can be markedly higher than the initial effect might lead us to expect. So there’s still room for growth and untapped potential.

Moritz C. Noll: “If we also take the long-term effects into account, even better figures are possible.”

So the upshot is even more growth for an already prospering region. Have you also been able to quantify in the study how local government tax revenues will change as a result?

Johanning: We’ve attempted to estimate this effect as well with the aid of a simple projection, at least for the Frankfurt city area. However, these results should be considered with caution since they are based on the previous results from the employment market forecasts, which inevitably results in additional inaccuracies. We looked at the local government share of the income tax, the value-added tax and the local business tax. In summary, we estimate that the City of Frankfurt will be able to earn between EUR 136.2 and EUR 191.9 million in revenue every year through the three above-mentioned tax forms as a result of the additionally created jobs.

New jobs in the banking sector – this is the expected result of relocations from London to Frankfurt. Well-founded estimates speak of ten thousand additional jobs within the next four years. The overall increase in job growth associated with Brexit is significantly higher because multiplier effects cause growth in other industries as well, according to the findings of an academic study conducted by WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management on behalf of Frankfurt Main Finance.

“We investigated the effects of the relocation of banking jobs as a result of Brexit on the entire labour market for the city of Frankfurt, the neighbouring cities and the Rhine-Main area,” says Prof. Dr. Lutz Johanning, one author of the study. “Our study shows that the multiplier effect is between 2.1 and 8.8, depending on the area examined. If we consider adding 10,000 new jobs in the banking industry over the next four years, then, according to our prudent estimate, an additional 21,000 jobs could be created in Frankfurt City. In the optimistic case, this could result in up to an additional 88,000 new jobs in the Rhine-Main region.”

Moritz C. Noll, co-author of the study, says, “With our models, we demonstrate that the long-term growth trajectory is changed by an initial shock, in other words, the additional jobs in the finance sector due to Brexit. Thus, we argue that the growth effects on the labour market can be significantly higher than the initial effects suggest. There’s still room for further gains.”

Hubertus Väth, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance, says, “The job growth will further advance the economic strength of Frankfurt and the region. A real success story for all parties involved. Now, it is important to absorb and shape this growth positively. That is a challenge. However, the additional jobs also bring the funds to invest and master the challenge.”

Based on the assumption that 10,000 financial sector jobs will relocate to Frankfurt due to Brexit, this also results in additional tax revenues for the city of Frankfurt. In the conservative scenario, the net gain from income, value-added and local business taxes is around 136 million euros per year, while the optimistic scenario would yield nearly 192 million euros.

https://frankfurt-main-finance.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Fotolia_120287148_1690.jpg11281690David Opphttps://frankfurt-main-finance.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/frankfurt-main-finance-logo.pngDavid Opp2017-08-25 11:57:202017-08-25 14:46:08Brexit bankers bring more welfare effects to Financial Centre Frankfurt and the region than just their jobs

In the wake of the Brexit vote, the European Banking Authority has to relocate.

The Brexit has been talked about for a long time – now things are starting to move. More and more banks are deciding to transfer their activities from London to Frankfurt. Deutsche Bank and Citigroup are two prominent examples. But major institutions like the European Banking Authority (EBA) are also on the verge of choosing a new location. After all, the EU’s banking regulator has to be based in a member state of the EU.

The application process surrounding the EBA is long underway and it’s also clear since the end of July exactly who has thrown their hat into the ring: eight cities – Frankfurt and Paris, along with Brussels, Dublin, Prague, Luxembourg, Vienna and Warsaw – all want to offer the authority a new home. The reason is simple: the presence of such a significant institution enhances the standing and prestige of the host location enormously.

Eight candidates in the running

Accordingly, the eight candidates are busily committed in their efforts to broadcast their merits with lots of facts about their respective locations, for instance on infrastructure, transport links, working conditions and schools. But to some extent they’re also making concrete promises. Luxembourg and Vienna, for example, are offering rent-free office space.

Frankfurt wants to make a persuasive case with hard facts, and Volker Bouffier, Prime Minister of the State of Hesse, is not alone in his conviction: “Despite our many competitors, we have a good hand.” The government has put together a comprehensive dossier to explain why that’s true. It highlights all the aspects that are important when choosing a location. However, since many of the features that make up the special setting and ambience in and around the Main metropolis are difficult to convey on paper, Frankfurt is also presenting itself with a film that shows what it means to be at home in Frankfurt.

Frankfurt can score in every respect

It’s the combination of the many different elements that’s decisive, Prime Minister Bouffier is also certain. As he points out, Frankfurt can boast a very good infrastructure and a large number of international banks and insurance companies and is thus the most important financial centre in continental Europe. The existing supervisory structure, including the European Central Bank (ECB), the Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA), the Deutsche Bundesbank, the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), completes this unique network of relevant players at one place.

That the settlement of the EBA would be a logical next step and would also create synergies is beyond question for Bouffier. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble also stresses that it’s now important to ensure planning security at an early stage in view of all the risks and uncertainties the European Union will be faced with as part of the Brexit: “This also applies to the question of the future headquarters of the EBA. I am firmly convinced that a key combination of factors make Frankfurt am Main the best option.”

Attractive offer for companies and institutions

Frankfurt’s application has been intensively prepared by numerous experts. One of them is Dr. Rainer Waldschmidt, Managing Director of Hessen Trade & Invest GmbH (HTAI). His familiarity with Frankfurt and the region is second to none, and he knows from many discussions with companies and political decision-makers in London what the burning questions are that arise during any relocation.

Not the loud beating of one’s own drum, but substantial, fact-based persuasion is the best way to support the decision-making process in his experience. “Many companies are looking for a safe haven in the EU following the Brexit decision. We want to make them an attractive offer. We can effectively provide them with a unique network of all the relevant actors,” says Waldschmidt.

Together with many other representatives from the city and state, he is promoting Hesse as an outstanding location in the EU – not least for one of the central authorities like the EBA. Since August 1st, all applications for future EBA locations have been published on the European Council website. The German government’s application for the Federal Republic of Germany and the location of Frankfurt am Main can be viewed on the website of the Federal Ministry of Finance.

Today, the German Federal Ministry of Finance submitted their bid to host the European Banking Authority (EBA) in the Financial Centre Frankfurt. Currently located in London, EBA must find a new home as a result of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. Applications to host the agency were due to the European Commission on 31 July 2017. The final decision is expected in November 2017.

Frankfurt Main Finance supports the Federal Ministry of Finance’s bid to host EBA in the Financial Centre Frankfurt. “We commend the Ministry on submitting a strong application. Frankfurt is home to three of the five pillars of an integrated European financial supervisory system. To relocate EBA to Frankfurt would be the logical next step and in line with an earlier recommendation by MEPs,” explains Hubertus Väth, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance. In addition to hosting the European Central Bank (ECB), European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA), and the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), Frankfurt is also home the Deutsche Bundesbank, the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and Federal Agency for Financial Market Stabilisation (FSMA).

The Financial Centre Frankfurt is in the pole position to win banking business from London following the results of the UK’s referendum. Several banks have announced their intentions to establish or expand operations in Frankfurt as a result of Brexit, including Silicon Valley Bank, Standard Chartered, Daiwa, Nomura, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho, Goldman Sachs, Citibank, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank. “The banks have voted with their feet for Frankfurt, now it’s on Europe to vote for financial stability and for Frankfurt,” explains Väth. Frankfurt Main Finance expects at least 12 and possibly as many as 20 banks to announce their decision for a location in Frankfurt in 2017.

Noted for its strong economic and political stability, Frankfurt and the region offer a top infrastructure, competitively priced and plentiful modern office space, a deep talent pool and an extremely high quality of life. Financial services moving to Frankfurt will find a competent, helpful and welcoming regulator in BaFin, who will accept large portions of applications in English. The Financial Centre is already home to more than 150 foreign banks and 75,000 people employed in financial services.

Brexit is gaining momentum. Coinciding with the first official announcements from financial institutions moving business units from the Thames to the Main, movement is being observed in the labor market. “We are currently experiencing an unprecedented onslaught of unsolicited applications from London for the offices in Frankfurt,” said Christopher Schmitz, Partner, EY EMEIA Financial Services. “This is true for both internal applications from consultants from within the company, but also for external applicants, especially by people of Indian origin. The interest in Frankfurt is great.”

Dr. Rolf E. Stokburger, Managing Partner at Boyden, a global HR consultancy specializing in management, made a similar observation, “Senior bankers are among the more proactive applicants. They are eager to be part of the success story in Frankfurt and leverage the opportunities of early entry.”

Thomas Deininger, Managing Director of Deininger Consulting, a global consultancy headquartered in Frankfurt with offices in London, Dehli, Mumbai and Pune, amongst others, says, “London’s banks are behaving increasingly hesitant. Our contracts there have reduced dramatically and recruiting has declined by 30 to 50 percent. On the other hand, we have increased interest in Frankfurt. The number of unsolicited CVs has certainly increased by 20 percent. There are a lot of actors in the financial sector currently taking part in exploratory talks with us.”

“We are currently experiencing the early phases of an evolving, radical shift in Frankfurt’s labor market,” says Hubertus Väth, Managing Director of Frankfurt Main Finance. “Banks are now discussing with their teams how they implement relocations to Frankfurt,” Väth continued. “These decisions will be made well in advance and require months of preparations. This affects not only the employees, but also their families.”

The great interest in the Financial Centre Frankfurt from India is remarkable, but not surprising. According to data from the City of Frankfurt, the Indian community in the Rhine-Main region is by far the largest in Germany and the Orbis database shows more than 130 Indian companies in the region in 2017. It is the preferred investment destination for India within the Schengen zone. And not least, more than 40 Indian IT companies, 9 of the top 20 Indian IT companies, are based here.

“In our offices in Delhi, Mumbai and Pune, interest in working in Frankfurt is also increasing,” says Thomas Deininger. “The 2016 Global Innovation Index sees Frankfurt as a leading German innovation cluster at number 12 in the world, ahead of London (21) and Berlin (30). Frankfurt is a particularly attractive location for innovative companies,” adds Hubertus Väth.

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