Stupid decisions by Cersei (spoilers)

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Some more analysis from Steve Attewell, about Cersei and her dealings with the Small Council-based on the first time we see her with them in AGOT in Sansa IV when she browbeats the child into sending letters to Robb proclaiming Ned a traitor and ordering Robb to come to court.

her whole strategy here is a bit odd – to give Cersei credit, she’s at least suggesting the outline of a modus vivendi (that they’ll let Ned go and marry Sansa to Joffrey if the Starks play nice) rather than attempting all-out war against both the Baratheons and the Starks. However, her modus vivendi couldn’t possibly stick.

To begin with, as Cersei well knows from her father, a Great House simply cannot allow their members to be treated like this – to allow the Lannisters to assault their head of house and then arrest him, to hold their children captive, is to announce to the world that House Stark is weak and can be attacked without retaliation. Moreover, there’s the fact that Tywin and Jaime have attacked the Riverlands – the extended family of the Stark has spilled blood and lost lands, treasure, and men to the Lannisters, and that’s equally hard to ignore. And there’s also the fact that Arya is still missing and Cersei can’t give her back, which is rather crucial.

At the same time, Cersei knows that Stannis is out there and Renly’s escaped to Highgarden – if Eddard lives and heads for the Night’s Watch, the word is going to get back to Robb and Catelyn about the whole incest thing. Given what Cersei’s done to their family, they’re going to believe the worst about him, especially if Ned’s willing to bend his honor enough to confirm when they hear from Stannis. So at the most, Cersei’s bought herself a few months.

However, the call to come to King’s Landing and bend the knee in person doesn’t quite fit the model of Cersei the peacemaker. Given what Aerys did to Rickard Stark, and now what’ s happened to Eddard Stark, the whole of the North is going to see that command as essentially an order of execution. Either Cersei knows that this is how Robb and Catelyn will see it and doesn’t care – either because she’s underestimating the power of the Starks and thinks they’re too cowed to react like a Lannister would in the same scenario, or because she wants to somehow get them to fight a limited war because she’s got hostages – or she’s really badly misjudged the political situation.

And the saddest thing of all is that this is the height of Cersei’s political control over the situation – the Starks, Baratheons, Tyrells, and Tullys are still largely hypothetical enemies, her enemies in the capitol are in chains, and her family is too far away to take her power away from her. It’s all down-hill from here.

I think it was Cersei assuming the Starks would be too weak to fight-or that any fight they could put up would be easy to crush. This isn't just a weakness for Cersei, (Jaime had some of this before ASOS and even Tywin wasn't entirely immune,) of assuming that the Lannister lions are so much more powerful than all other Houses, that everyone else must bow to them-which fundamentally misunderstands the political reality of Westeros and how its governed by Paramount House. Again setting up for the way she gets Margaery arrested for treason, because she doesn't understand that there's no way in hell that the Tyrell's can let that happen.