Majority of Irish voters back the Lisbon treaty

An opinion poll published in the Irish Times today (16 February) shows that 51% of Irish voters are now in favour of the Lisbon treaty and 33% against. The poll suggests that there has been a significant shift in opinion since the Ireland voted against the treaty in a referendum last June. Excluding the undecided voters (16%), the opinion poll puts the 'Yes' vote at 60.7% and the 'No' vote at 39.3%, compared to 46.6% who voted for and 53.4% against in the referendum.

Today’s poll shows an increase of eight percentage points for the ‘Yes’ vote since the last Irish Times poll in November. A third of those surveyed said that they would vote ‘No’ in the new poll, down six points from November.

Dick Roche (pictured), Ireland’s ministers for European affairs, welcomed the results which he said showed a “growing realisation [that] if we are to attract investment and jobs we have to be part of the European Union”.

According to the Irish Times, the poll asked people how they would vote in the light of the commitment to allow Ireland to retain a European commissioner along with legal guarantees on other Irish concerns about neutrality, abortion and taxation.

Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they wre in favour of being part of the EU. An overwhelming 80% thought it better to be part of the EU, 13% thought it was not and 7% had no opinion.

The margin of error in the poll is 3%.

The poll found that the treaty was winning more support among Labour and Green party voters with Sinn Féin, the Irish Republican party, the only one whose supporters still back the ‘No’ campaign. Voters who support the governing Fianna Fáil party of Prime Minister Brian Cowen back the treaty by 60% to 31%, while supporters of the main opposition party Fine Gael support it by 59% to 29%. Labour voters favour Lisbon by 53% to 34%, while Greens back it by 57% to 33%.

The Irish Times reports that in the last poll before the referendum in June, only Fianna Fáil and Green supporters professed themselves in favour of the treaty, with a majority of Fine Gael and Labour voters rejecting the advice of their party leaders and voting ‘No’.

The poll results may increase pressure on Cowen’s government to call a second referendum on the treaty. At the European Council in December, Cowen promised, subject to certain guarantees, to put the treaty to a second vote before 1 November. If public opinion stays firm, Ireland’s European partners may be asking for the poll to be held earlier rather than later, because it would dispel uncertainties about the appointment of the next Commission.

In an editorial, the Irish Times says: "An earlier referendum should be seriously considered."

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Joerg Redmann

I’m sorry was the vote on the Lisbon treaty or on membership of the EU? I think it was about the Lisbon Treaty if I remember correctly. This is the most undemocratic and uaccountable structure that Europe has seen since 1989. To be aided and abetted by the Irish Government against the will of the people is nothing short of appalling! How dare they… the fact that they are even attempting to manipulate the date of their second referendum to disorientate potential opponents is a symbol of how anti-democratic this elitist establishment has allowed itself to become. No means No! Bad treaty!

Posted on 2/16/09 | 6:34 AM CET

John Manne

Embarrasing… an Irish think tank recently revealed that 70% of voters were against a revote. This result was heavily criticised by the Irish Times as being manipulated by British interests and other dark helicopter sources. The Irish Times writes a question suggesting that if “certain concerns” (no specification of the concerns given here) are met then would you vote yes. I would also vote yes, if you meet my concern that Uzbekistan may field a waterpolo team in Mongolia next month… does that make me a yes voter?

Posted on 2/16/09 | 8:01 AM CET

I do not want to be part of a dictatorship.

These polls are not real polls and anyone with a shrewd mind knows this. It is propaganda at it’s best, created in order to mess with the mindset of the Irish people in an attempt to influence their voting to get a YES vote. We voted NO the last time and that should have been respected. I will be voting a big fat juicy NO this time just like I did the last time.
I do not want to be part of a dictatorship that has no respect for democracy.