Thursday, January 13, 2011

Texas Suggestions

West Virginia was the winner of our vote on where to poll this weekend but I think if folks had known Kay Bailey Hutchison was going to retire that would have won instead so we're going to push West Virginia back a week and do Texas this time.

I think we have space probably to test 4 Republicans vs. 3 Democrats and then we can test up to 8 of each party for the 'who would be your top choice as a Senate candidate' question that we've been asking of primary voters on a state by state basis.

Who should we test? I realize the field will develop over time and regret that we can't test every match up under the sun but this will at least give us an initial idea of whether Democrats have any chance and if any Republicans start out particularly formidable.

Rick Perry but he'd be flip flopping on his comments about "having the best job in the country" and his crusade to push more federalism as newly elected Texas governor. Ron Paul, I wonder if his name recognition trumps his possible notoriety. Michael Williams was the preferred candidate of the DeMint/RedState crowd before KBH went back on her pledge to drop out when she lost the Gov race. Jeb Hensarling is a credible conservative champion but he's in house leadership now. Culberson seems like he wants a national platform. Same for Joe Barton. Debra Medina if you're looking for yet another filler.

(D) Bill White should be the obvious choice, Julian Castro (mayor of San Antonio) should also be a choice. One could say Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert would run as a Democrat, would be a good alternative to the Bill White- pro business Democrat. Also, John Sharp is one who always seems relevant.

(R) Roger Williams, Comm Michael Williams. However, pretty much anyone who can rally the Teabaggers and spew enough vitriol could win the nomination, regardless of their record.

R: Michael Williams, Tom Leppert, David Dewhurst. Leppert is forgoing running for another term as mayor, probably was planning on getting in the Senate race. Dewhurst and Williams both seem fairly likely, and IMO Williams is the most likely to win the nomination.

D: John Sharp, Chet Edwards, Julian Castro.

I'd be surprised if any of the D's is within 10 of any of the R's unless it's a function of name recognition and the R isn't making it out of the lower 40's.

But seriously test a handful of these: Michael Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, Greg Abbott. For Dems: Chet Edwards, John Sharp, may want to test Bill White as a "popular" Dem just to see their baseline even though he said he's not running.

An obvious GOPer would be Michael Williams, and maybe even Rick Perry (Oh the irony), but on the Dem side, polling Bill White, Chet Edwards, and John Sharp, who has already said he would run whenever the seat becomes available.

Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Sec. of State Roger Williams and Rep. Joe Barton have already said they will consider running for the Republicans. Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert would make an interesting GOP candidate. The only potential Dem I have heard about is John Sharp. Bill White already declined.

Politico has a nice list of possible Republican candidates: http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0111/The_list_to_replace_KBH.html?showall

If you want only four, the first four make sense: David Dewhurst, Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Ames Jones. Of those, least interested in Roger Williams. Dewhurst is the only one not currently in the race.

Among Democrats, Chet Edwards, John Sharp, and Henry Cuellar (who has some statewide experience as an appointed official).

In regards to the West Virginia race, I'm not interested in Capito as I don't expect her to run. If she runs for anything, I think it will be governor. Was interested in Betty Ireland, but she's already announced for governor. Raese is out. Who does that leave to run as a Republican for Senate?

West Virginia is a swing state. Manchin may be in the wrong party. However, it doesn't seem clearly established that anyone wants to run against him. The best chance may well have passed already. Voting against him in the 2010 race would have left him as governor. Not to mention the mobilized off year electorate.

The problem for the Democrats, as other people have indicated, is that few have come forward thus far, making the list of potential candidates very limited. In fact, Leticia van de Putte says she isn't running, but I included her anyway just to gauge reactions.

I'm also curious to see the results of a Generic Republican and a Generic Democrat. I seem to be alone in this sentiment, but I firmly believe that if the Democrats nominate someone moderate to conservative, like John Sharp, and invest the necessary resources in the state, they could win.

Any poll you take has to include Michael Williams and David Dewhurst from buzz alone.

That leaves a few others-

Announced:Roger WilliamsElizabeth Ames Jones

Interested:Tom LeppertTed CruzJoe Barton

Interesting:Debra MedinaRon PaulDan Patrick

Mix and match and take your pick. On the Democratic side, I think the options have been pretty well covered. However, do consider Kinky Friedman. Last year he was leading in polls for the Democratic primary for a time, and his name recognition and solid reputation with conservatives really makes him a wildcard if he ran (which you never really know if he will or not).

Democrats who have declined on-the-record since KBH announced retirement are Adrian Garcia, Ron Kirk, Leticia Van de Putte and Bill White. While they might changed their mind, I wouldn't waste the effor on them.

Democrats who are potentials would be Julian Castro, Chet Edwards, John Sharp and Kirk Walker.