posted at 5:21 pm on July 21, 2014 by Allahpundit

You can tell at a glance what’s happening here. Last fall, the Healthcare.gov rollout disaster drove his approval rating into a ditch. Since then, verrrry slowly, he’s been climbing out. His overall rating is still poor, though, just 2.2 points higher than his all-time low during the first debt-ceiling standoff in August 2011. So yeah, I’m being troll-y in framing his “rising” approval as good news from Dems insofar as he’s still close to being as unpopular as he’s ever been.

If I were a Democrat, though, I really would take some comfort in those numbers. Realistically, unless the BLS uncorks several rosy jobs reports in a row, O’s unlikely to ever make it back to 50/50. That’s just life as a lame duck in a polarized age, when Congress isn’t much interested in working with you anymore. Typically, approval-wise, there’s no place to go in your second term but down, so holding steady — which is what O’s been doing — is a minor accomplishment:

On April 1, according to the RCP job approval average, he was at 43.1 approval and 53.1 disapproval. Today he’s at 42.3/52.2, basically a wash. In Gallup, his job approval on April 3 was 43/53, almost exactly the same as the RCP figure. Today it’s 44/50. He’s actually improved over the last three and a half months. I wouldn’t call that a minor accomplishment; given the unending crapshow that the late spring and early summer have been, from the VA scandal to the IRS’s missing hard drives to the Bergdahl prisoner giveaway to Iraq melting down to Putin’s proxies in Ukraine running wild to the border crisis, it’s a major one. And it’s not like he gets high marks across the board. His job approval on foreign policy, specifically, is a smoking crater. The resilience of his overall numbers strike me as proof positive that there’s basically nothing he can do at this point to alienate the left-leaning 45 percent of the country that’s with him. Which, of course, is why O never worries about being impeached for his executive power grabs. You’ll never convince the GOP to place a high-stakes bet on that when Obama’s absolute floor, after very nearly wrecking the country’s new health insurance system in its first month, is 41 percent.

What does that mean for the GOP this fall? Nate Cohn sees the wave receding:

The race for the Senate, at least right now, is stable. There aren’t many polls asking whether voters would prefer Democrats or Republicans to control Congress, but the Democrats appear to maintain a slight edge among registered voters. Democratic incumbents in red Republican states, who would be all but doomed in a Republican wave, appear doggedly competitive in places where Mitt Romney won by as much as 24 points in 2012…

[A]s July turns to August, the G.O.P. is now on the clock. If there is to be a wave this November, the signs of a shift toward the G.O.P. ought to start to show up, somewhere, soon. Every day that goes by without a shift toward the G.O.P. increases the odds that there will not be a wave at all…

The G.O.P. is less popular today than it was in 2010, when G.O.P. favorability ratings increased and Democratic ratings faltered in advance of the midterms. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings might also be deceptive: They’re mainly low because of minimal support from Republican leaners, not because Mr. Obama has lost an unusual amount of ground among his own supporters.

Republicans might very well still win the Senate, says Cohn; there are so many vulnerable Democrats out there in red states, even a mediocre GOP performance on election night might get them to 51-52 seats. The narrower the margin is, though, the more likely it is that Democrats will reclaim the Senate in 2016 when a bunch of Republicans from purple states are up. If you want to ensure a durable Republican Senate majority, where durable means “at least two election cycles,” you need a wave, and the wave depends in no small part on how much the public disapproves of Obama. If he’s still at 44 percent after taking a flurry of blows over the last three months, what’s going to push him down to “wave” levels of 39-40 percent?

Exit question: Check out the second graph here. Could the GOP back into a wave simply because so many disaffected Democrats stay home? The fact that Dems have flogged the Hobby Lobby “war on women” crapola so much recently is proof that they’re worried, a lot, about their base showing up.

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Never underestimate the stupidity of the American voter (or the power of propaganda from the U.S. media).

bw222 on July 21, 2014 at 5:32 PM

The liberal education system and the media have done their job well. There’s a certain segment of the population which is permanently attached to the left. Leftist propaganda has been imprinted in their brains and nothing short of the threat of impending death will ever shake them from that.

Haven’t I and many others on here been saying this for years? He can’t fall below the low 40′s. Ok, once in a blue moon, a poll will momentarily show him in the high 30′s, but that’s an anomaly. He’s basically a lock to remain between 40-45% approval the rest of his term. His base is made up of low information morons, welfare queens, and partisan hacks. Those groups will never turn on him no matter what happens.

It’s disheartening in a sense, but at the same time, it’s also reassuring in other ways. First because it’s not like the low 40′s is a good place for any President to be. And secondly because it’ll be tough for any other Dem on the horizon(even Hillary) to get the kind of pass Obama’s gotten for doing such a sh-tty job.

Allah, FYI: Sean Trende’s Barry JA approval model, which you yourself have cited in the past would make even a 44% approval = a MINIMUM gain of 9 Senate Seats for the GOP with a max of 13. Stop the eeyoring.

The WaPo has an Op-Ed that Wendy Davis is stronger than the polls suggest because she hasn’t yet started pushing her message and national interest in abortion Barbie or whatever.

I take the idea that Davis is poised to surge in polling in August. At the same time, I don’t think that mid-July is really the time that LIVs are paying attention to Senate races either. They’re at Cedar Point, Dollywood, or wherever and not thinking about the various candidates views on abortion, gun control, legitimizing the gay lifestyle, or whatever.

I pay no attention to these polls, the only ones which matter occur at the voting booth and Dog Eater isn’t on the ballot this year.

If the 52%’ers decide to go all demorat again this year then so be it, they’ve yet again made their decision and they can deal with the inevitable consequences. I’m about done trying to convince dumbasses that their decisions are proof they’re dumbasses.

You can tell at a glance what’s happening here. Last fall, the Healthcare.gov rollout disaster drove his approval rating into a ditch.

Ted Cruz deserves more credit for setting this up and hammering O during the defund effort prior to the rollout. The RINOs said that would backfire but that was the only time Obozo’s been below 40% (39.8% on RCP average). Cruz gets a lot of slack from me on other issues (immigration) because he’s just about the only GOPer to make an impact in opposition to Obama 6 years.

His base is 40%, he’ll never fall below that. Progressives will never abandon him; he has the black vote, a durable 10% that Bush never had. And main stream media in his corner. He is great at manipulating the message to get back to things that he can win on like immigration and contraception, while staying away from the economy etc. All he needs is the absence of news. Events have been killing him since Syria. Otherwise he’d be at 50% at least. I don’t think he’ll get to November without a few more hits. What counts this November is turnout.

Just call it for what it is – black solidarity will never, ever sell him out in a legit poll.

That alone gives him a cushion that stronger than any President.

Prog Whiteys will sink on key issues, but not on overall support because they’re aware of the media spin if he hits the 30′s. But when he’s out of office, they’re going to trash him because the investment is over.

Anything below 45 is Barry’s crater. You then have to discount the solidarity vote since it’s soft racism. So his real number is at about 40, crawling out of 37.

I will not be surprise if the Republican party only gets 51 seats in the senate. The reason is because the Republican leadership is horrible. They are telling conservatives to stay home and a lot will this year. If the Republican nominee is a progressive like Mitch and Graham a lot of the base will not show up to vote.

I will not be surprise if the Republican party only gets 51 seats in the senate. The reason is because the Republican leadership is horrible. They are telling conservatives to stay home and a lot will this year. If the Republican nominee is a progressive like Mitch and Graham a lot of the base will not show up to vote.

BroncosRock on July 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Yes, because staying home and handing gov’t to Dems has worked wonders, right?

Last Saturday afternoon I was on an Orange County, CA freeway overpass as part of the National Protests Against Illegal Immigration. It was VERY heartening to see and hear so many motorists below honking their horns and waving in support. According to the organizer’s website, this was the experience all over the country. People are VERY fired up over this issue, and, like in 2010, they will vote in November.

Here is their website. The next round of protests is scheduled for AUGUST 2ND! Check it out, there may be one near you!

I’m not buying these polls. All basic needs–food, gas, housing, and health care–keep getting more expensive. Taxes of various kinds keep increasing. Every week I see another business closing. Our foreign policy is a very bad joke. There’s no way anyone in the current government is becoming more popular.

And Allah-P doing everything he can to prop up these numbers. How many illegals in the survey? Se habla espanol? Si!

Part of the problem is the media doing everything they can not report the news – covering the border invasion as a humanitarian crisis. Quoting only administration statements for any issue and then moving on to the next big item to cover Obama’s ass.

I mean, now Obama is spouting the egregious lie that record unemployment is because of not enough illegal immigration. Jobs Americans wont do is apparently failing, so now they say we need illegals to creat jobs to pull lazy assed Americans back I to the workforce?

Big Brother ain’t got nothing on this guy.

Question: When whole world is a ‘third world country,’ you going to be any happier?

RNC called us 8 times in 2 days. Finally picked up the phone and dude wants $ of course. I said no thanks. Why? Me – Hmmm…well lets see? Mississippi, war on the Tea Party, lack of leadership etc. RNC – “But, we don’t support candidates, so we weren’t involved in MS.” I said, then you should be. Because that election was stolen by Democrats. I also noted that my husband lost his job and we will be supporting only local candidates. RNC – “What if we don’t win the Senate?” I said, if Rs lose the Senate it will be b/c they deserved it b/c they pissed off people like me and we stayed home!! Goodbye!

Anything below 45 is Barry’s crater. You then have to discount the solidarity vote since it’s soft racism. So his real number is at about 40, crawling out of 37.

budfox on July 21, 2014 at 6:19 PM

Since the Civil Rights Movement black people have *always* remained stubbornly loyal to Democratic politicians and Presidents. Their opinions only become discounted by idiots like yourself who would prefer things were back to the pre-1965 days. Well that’s not happening. Basically you’re saying that the only “real number” that matters is the number of white people who like him. That actually is “rrrraaaaacccist” or whatever you fools say.

And might we point out, that Bush had his own areas of unthinking, unquestioned support amongst base Republicans who are *all white evangelicals* I guess that’s “soft religious prejudice” or some other such nonsense. Nessa…girl, bye.

“There’s no way anyone in the current government is becoming more popular.

It’s. Just. Impossible.”

This applies to everyone in govt except Obama, he’s got more teflon than Reagan ever had. The difference in the polls is too small to matter. He’s been virtually flat. He averages around 45% with short trips to 41 and 51. This is personality-based and nothing to do with policy.

Since the Civil Rights Movement black people have *always* remained stubbornly loyal to Democratic politicians and Presidents. Their opinions only become discounted by idiots like yourself who would prefer things were back to the pre-1965 days. Well that’s not happening. Basically you’re saying that the only “real number” that matters is the number of white people who like him. That actually is “rrrraaaaacccist” or whatever you fools say.

And might we point out, that Bush had his own areas of unthinking, unquestioned support amongst base Republicans who are *all white evangelicals* I guess that’s “soft religious prejudice” or some other such nonsense. Nessa…girl, bye.

libfreeordie on July 21, 2014 at 7:15 PM

LBJ couldn’t get Democrats to pass the civil rights bill Clown. The GOP is what got the Civil Rights bill passed. Go read a history book you schmuck.

Who are these idiots? Whenever I’m driving down the road and I see some dufus driving around with an Obama bumper sticker on their car, it’s all I can do to keep myself from dragging them out the car and beating them down in middle of the road.

God help us. That this President could do all that he has done and still be this high in approval. ..

Jack_Burton on July 21, 2014 at 6:50 PM

Yes, it’s truly unbelievable to think there are that many stupid people.

cat_owner on July 21, 2014 at 7:26 PM

I notice some on this thread don’t believe the poll. It is true, probably higher. People don’t pay attention and don’t care. And don’t forget how many live off welfare today? And that number increases monthly. People will get off the couch and vote if it keeps the freebies coming. 2012 proved that

I’m sure that was a very expensive ‘bump’ in that poll, I mean, with the cost of killing off and disposing of the bodies of most of those that said obama sucks and all, I’m sure the bill was around 1/4 billion at least.

Doesn’t do otambo any good as far as I’m concerned, it was wasted money. I’ll piss on his picture nightly till the cretin goes away forever.

Ladies & Gentlemen at HA everyone must remember the after effects of … (drum roll please) … Kyoto.
Clinton gave it lip service.
ALGORE saw it as a way to get stinking rich.
Bush saw it for what it was, an economy crippling boondoggle and refused to sign or submit to the Senate.
The MEDIA WENT ABSOLUTELY NUTS … and from that day forward (not forgetting Floriduh hanging-chads) the Lame Stream Media HATED GEORGE W. BUSH and anything … ANYTHING he did.
Give $18 billion to combat AIDS in Africa? No ink.
Rid the planet of maniacal sociopaths like Usay and Quday … BFD.

Others have said it before: King Putt could drown puppies and kittens in the Rose Garden and there would be praise from the Presstitutes that Obowmao was eliminating plague vectors from our midst.

Allah, FYI: Sean Trende’s Barry JA approval model, which you yourself have cited in the past would make even a 44% approval = a MINIMUM gain of 9 Senate Seats for the GOP with a max of 13. Stop the eeyoring.

So my final sense of things is offered with a reasonably high degree of uncertainty. I think that the popular vote will be close, and that Romney will win North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Colorado, bringing him just shy of what he needs to win. But I think that Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Iowa and Ohio will be very close, probably around a point each.

Just for the record Obama won Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. He won VA by 4%, CO by 5%, NH by 5%, IA by 5%, OH by 3%. Out of 10 predictions Trende got just 1 right (unless you count 206EV as “just shy of what [Romney] needs to win.”

Just call it for what it is – black solidarity will never, ever sell him out in a legit poll.

That alone gives him a cushion that stronger than any President.

Prog Whiteys will sink on key issues, but not on overall support because they’re aware of the media spin if he hits the 30′s. But when he’s out of office, they’re going to trash him because the investment is over.

Anything below 45 is Barry’s crater. You then have to discount the solidarity vote since it’s soft racism. So his real number is at about 40, crawling out of 37.