Foreign Affairs; Get Cracking on Bosnia

The people of Bosnia and the tinderboxes nearby might meditate on two realities: First, President Bush will not order U.S. forces to the rescue. Forget it. Second, President-elect Clinton won't either -- at least not for months. He shows little disposition to walk economics and chew foreign policy gum at the same time. He has barely begun to select his national security team.

Mr. Bush's decision to dispatch troops to Somalia has in no way altered his opposition to American intervention in Bosnia. His senior aides are absolutely clear about that. He just sees too many land mines in Bosnia and no way to get out.

Mr. Clinton is unlikely to set his course in Bosnia until weeks after inauguration at the earliest. Which means thousands more dead Bosnians and hundreds of thousands more Bosnian refugees pouring into an already floundering Germany. Which means little prospect of heading off wider Balkan wars in Kosovo and Macedonia. All this portends moral and strategic disaster.

Mr. Clinton should move now to put his senior foreign policy and defense team in place and get them cracking on Bosnia and other world crises. Focusing on the economy is right. But treading water on foreign affairs is dead wrong.

His transition staff for national security cannot do the job of creating policy. It contains few experienced, high-level pros. And these pros have to spend most of their time answering ridiculous press queries about Clinton policies that don't exist, playing footsie with anxious foreign diplomats, taking phone calls from panicky job-seekers and meeting with political allies to keep them from feeling excluded when the moment comes to exclude them.

Sandy Berger, the leader of the transition staff, has commissioned various policy papers from able, senior people. But these papers cannot substitute for the advisers who will form the Clinton National Security Council.

The first task of these senior advisers should be to flesh out Mr. Clinton's promising campaign rhetoric on Bosnia. He talked sensibly about providing arms to Muslims, now virtually defenseless against Serbian attacks. He hinted creatively at bombing attacks against military targets in Serbia to deter Serbs from further aggression. But good thoughts do not a policy make.

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Before the Clinton team goes too far down the road on a Balkan policy, it should talk with key Bush aides. The President and his team have been far too cautious, unimaginative and shortsighted on Bosnia. But they have some telling arguments. Clinton advisers should listen and fashion convincing responses.

Mr. Clinton wisely rejects fighting a ground war in Bosnia. Instead, some of his advisers speak of establishing a safety zone there where Bosnians could go for food, shelter and security. Bush aides and Bosnian Muslims -- along with the international mediators Cyrus Vance and Lord David Owen -- reject this idea. They feel it would legitimize Serbian conquests of Bosnian Muslim territory. But surely a formula can be found to provide for immediate humanitarian needs without compromising long-term negotiating positions.

Bush advisers also fault the Clinton inclination to arm Muslims. They believe, again backed by Mr. Vance and Lord Owen, that this will only lead to greater violence and even more Muslim deaths. But there is a trade-off here: a heavy short-term price may be worthwhile to stabilize the battlefield and save lives thereafter.

Bush aides insist that if the U.S. bombs Serbia, as Mr. Clinton may propose, London and Paris will withdraw their humanitarian-relief forces from Bosnia. And so they will, unless Mr. Clinton successfully mounts a risky and ambitious campaign in private and public diplomacy.

Most compellingly, Bush advisers warn that getting into Bosnia will be far easier than getting out. Before taking any action, Mr. Clinton will have to fashion a persuasive plan of limited involvement, explaining what lines he will and will not cross -- then sell it to Americans and to Congress.

After looking at all this, Mr. Clinton may decide it's too late to help Bosnia. If so, he had better stop leading the Bosnian Muslims on, come up with a second line of defense against Serbia in Kosovo and Macedonia and sell that to Congress and the American people.

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A version of this op-ed appears in print on December 3, 1992, on Page A00025 of the National edition with the headline: Foreign Affairs; Get Cracking on Bosnia. Today's Paper|Subscribe