Insight from Colin Twiggs. I am not a licensed investment adviser. Please read the Disclaimer.

UK & Europe: France rejects austerity

Election of French Socialist Francois Hollande may lead to a similar rejection of austerity measures by Spain and Italy, creating a clear fault-line between the uncompromising German-led North and a more socialist French-led South. That could eventually lead to fracture of the euro-zone unless the two camps discover a new spirit of compromise. Be prepared for a rough ride.

The CAC-40 index rallied Monday and recovery above 3300 would indicate that the correction is over. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would signal buying pressure. Failure of support at 3100, however, would indicate another test of primary support at 2800.

Spain’s Madrid General Index continues in a strong primary down-trend, with 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating below zero. Failure of support at the 2009 low of 700 would signal another primary decline.

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

63-Day Twiggs Momentum (below zero) also indicates a primary down-trend on Italy’s MIB Index but this week’s blue candle suggests support at 13500. Recovery above 15000 would signal another test of 17000. Failure of support, however, would offer a long-term target of 10000*.

* Target calculation: 13500 – ( 17000 – 13500 ) = 10000

The German DAX continues to test the rising trendline and support at 6500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests strong buying pressure. Respect of support would confirm the primary up-trend and test the 2011 high at 7600.

London Stock Exchange was closed Monday. The FTSE 100 is again testing support at 5600 and failure would warn of another test of primary support at 5000/5050. Breach of the rising trendline would also signal that the up-trend is losing momentum. Retreat of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.