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FUTURIST > THINKER > SPEAKERMon, 02 Mar 2015 18:09:27 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0The First Ever Face the Future Conferencehttp://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/the-shift-age/2015/02/24/first-ever-face-future-conference
http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/the-shift-age/2015/02/24/first-ever-face-future-conference#commentsTue, 24 Feb 2015 16:32:14 +0000http://davidhoule.com/?p=2264The first ever Face the Future Conference to be held May 4-6, 2015 in Albuquerque, NM. The vision for the Face the Future Conference is to become the premiere conference about the future; the future of everything. All around the …

All around the world I have had the honor of opening conferences to provide audiences with a high level look at our collective future. Then the attendees usually go off to speak about the present and future of some specific industry. The Face the Future Conference will endeavor, through the years, to touch on all the major trends and issues facing humanity and the world.

Due to firm and generous commitments from both the City of Albuquerque and the Albuquerque Convention and Visitors Bureau, the conference made a five-year commitment to be in Albuquerque, for five years through 2019.

As a futurist it is clear to me that Albuquerque and the state of New Mexico will be one of the hot new areas of innovation in this country by 2020 if not before. The vision into the future and the current activity manifested by this vision is real and palpable.

This is the fulfillment of a vision that my good friend Richard Holcomb and I have had for years. Richard is CEO of the largest digital production company in New Mexico, Cliff Dweller Digital and a friend of mine for more than 20 years. We are joined in partnership by Laura Kesselman, the owner of the largest event management firm in the state.

One of my responsibilities is curating the programming of the conference and I must say the response has been overwhelming. We have some of the top futurists in the world, leading thinkers on many topics and all of these participants immediately understood the importance of creating a three-day community around this conference. Most of the speakers will be attending all three days and will therefore be in the audience and the hallways in addition to on-stage. We have built in a lot of interactive time with speakers. We are creating great events before, during and after the conference.

At a time of deep and rapid transformational change with both great opportunity and great risk for businesses we must face the future. The risk is too high not to do so. As R. Buckminster Fuller famously said 40 years ago: ‘Humanity will soon approach a fork in the road; utopia or oblivion”. The Face the Future Conference stands fully in the belief that it is time for as many people as possible to face the future, interact with thought leaders and visionaries who are shaping our future today and then create the future themselves.

In this transformative and accelerant time, business owners and C-level corporate executives must look up from short-term strategy and the implementation of it and look further down the road. Leaders must now lead with vision. What is the vision for you company in 2020, in 2025?

As a business owner or leader, can you afford not to attend? I am confident that you will come away with a number of ideas on how to lead and live in the years ahead. I believe that being able to say you attended the very first Face the Future Conference will be something you will like to be able to say in the years ahead.

Here is some of the recent coverage of the Face the Future Conference:

]]>http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/the-shift-age/2015/02/24/first-ever-face-future-conference/feed0A Look Ahead at 2015http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/global-economy/2015/02/07/look-ahead-2015
http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/global-economy/2015/02/07/look-ahead-2015#commentsSat, 07 Feb 2015 17:43:14 +0000http://davidhoule.com/?p=22492015 will be an accelerant year of change. Much of the change is the emergence or reemergence of trends I have forecast in recent years. Most of the forecasts have been posted on my web site through the years. Technology …

]]>2015 will be an accelerant year of change. Much of the change is the emergence or reemergence of trends I have forecast in recent years. Most of the forecasts have been posted on my web site through the years.

Technology

The Internet of Things

This new era of Big Data is largely fueled with ever more devices, appliances and data capture devices getting connected. 2014-2017 is the great transition time for this. In February 2008 I forecast: “We now have smart phones. In the years ahead, everything will become “smart”: clothing, infrastructure and our homes. All will be connected.” The quantified self, controlling home and office via an app and ever more precise GPS technologies are just some examples of this in its early stage.

The transformation of physical retail

Already well underway, this will accelerate in 2015. As I forecast in January 2011: “The bricks and mortar retail industry and therefore retail real estate, will undergo the greatest transformation in the next 10 years since the introduction of the automobile” Chains will go out of business, separate retail categories will combine, 20th century malls will close. On-line shopping in our screen reality is reshaping shopping in our physical reality.

Streaming Media

2014 was the year when streaming of content surged into prominence. 2015 will be the year when streaming content takes its place at the media table, forcing legacy media to alter business models. As I forecast in October 2014: “Streaming video models will continue to disrupt legacy distribution models in 2015 and 2016 in such a way that entire business models will change.” Amazon and Netflix win programming awards and the legacy television networks stay in their old model and will also join in the new model. In the audio sector, streaming music services and podcasts will continue to disrupt digital sales of content

Economics

Economic growth in Europe will be a flat line

This has been clear since 2011. In February 2011 I forecast: “It should no longer be thought of as the “Greek Debt Crisis” but the possible “rattle of the Euro.” This might be a bit strong, but the future strength of the Euro is uncertain. Greece, may in fact confront the Euro establishment with a move back to the Drachma The forecast in April 2011: “Europe, and specifically the Euro zone will be a no growth zone for the better part of the decade to 2020. Recession, deleveraging and legacy policies of the 20th century will be the causes”

Low economic growth globally

This forecast from a year ago in January 2014: “The global economy has completed its first stage of development. Long term global economic growth will be less than 3% until 2018-19.” This is just the new reality of the ever more integrative second stage of the global economy that has begun.

Geo-Political Change

In large part due to the new low level of oil prices there will be profound alterations in the geo-political landscape. As I just forecast: “There will be great geo-political changes in the next 24 months due to a lower level of oil prices.”

Investment Volatility

There will be continued volatility in equity, commodity and real estate markets globally. As forecast in February 2013: “After a disruptive 2015-2017 there will be a historic bull market from 2018-2028″. I will delve into the reasons for this future bull market in the next two years, but expect volatility in 2015. The oil price collapse and regular 1-5% daily changes in global equity markets are indications of this volatility

]]>http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/global-economy/2015/02/07/look-ahead-2015/feed0Oil Prices and a New Era of Lower Cost Energyhttp://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/energy/2015/01/27/oil-prices-new-era-lower-cost-energy
http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/energy/2015/01/27/oil-prices-new-era-lower-cost-energy#commentsTue, 27 Jan 2015 20:30:43 +0000http://davidhoule.com/?p=2241In the last column here, I forecast that humanity may well have entered a new era of lower cost energy. This could last for just a few years or could become something much more long-term. This is due to a …

]]>In the last column here, I forecast that humanity may well have entered a new era of lower cost energy. This could last for just a few years or could become something much more long-term. This is due to a combination of factors and trends. The only real question is the duration.

Here is a recent short video about the Era of Lower Energy Costs:

Relative to the price of oil, I have been relatively accurate. In 2006 I suggested that we might have $125/ barrel oil by 2008 and we all painfully remember that it climbed to $147. Up until early last year I forecast a price range of $90-120 per barrel. About a year ago I suggested that the bottom of that range would be tested in 2014 and that it could fall into the $70-80 range. Well I was right about the direction but certainly missed the reality of $45 barrel oil!

Here is a recent video on the near term price of oil.

So we must consider the possible reality that we have entered a new era of lower energy costs. This will trigger corporations and nations to rethink energy policy and use. There will certainly be significant geopolitical dynamics and changes simply based on $45-90 barrel oil for the next year or two.

]]>http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/energy/2015/01/27/oil-prices-new-era-lower-cost-energy/feed1A New Energy Era is Beginninghttp://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/2015/01/20/new-energy-era-beginning
http://davidhoule.com/evolutionshift-blog/2015/01/20/new-energy-era-beginning#commentsTue, 20 Jan 2015 02:24:06 +0000http://davidhoule.com/?p=2184 As many of you who have read my writings over the years know, I have written quite a bit about energy, sources of energy and the price of oil. In fact one of the first forecasts that gave me …

As many of you who have read my writings over the years know, I have written quite a bit about energy, sources of energy and the price of oil. In fact one of the first forecasts that gave me widespread recognition was made in the Spring of 2006 when I suggested that by 2008 the price of oil would top $125 a barrel. At the time oil was in the $50-55 range and my forecast was ridiculed. It of course reached $147 that year.

I had based that oil price forecast in part on a belief that humanity might be indeed passing through peak oil, that geopolitics would affect price and that the explosive growth of China and other emerging economically growing nation states would press hard on the demand side. Ever since, I have been correct through the end of 2013 about the price range of oil being consistently between $90-120 barrel. Only once or twice did the price dip below $90 and that was for short periods of time.

In early 2014 I forecast that for the first time in years the price of oil would drop below $90, perhaps down to $80 or below. Well I was right in the direction but obviously wrong in how low! We are now in a fundamental supply/demand oil market that will last well into next year. There will not be a decrease in oil production and except for some major geopolitical event, the over supply will keep prices down. The price will come up from the $40-50 barrel range it is now in but will not approach the $90-110 range until perhaps 2016 if then.

The collapse of the price of oil is part of a much larger global energy trend.

We may well be seeing the beginning of a new era of energy. Clearly the dramatic increase in oil production in the United States has been a major factor on the current downward spiral in oil prices. Combined with Saudi Arabia wanting to maintain its global market share and a new level of disagreement amongst the OPEC members, along with a no growth Euro zone and a slowing of growth in China and the reality of these lower oil prices today is understood. However I think that this current market condition may in fact be ushering in a new global era of energy and energy costs that could become the new landscape in the years ahead.

In the past eight years solar energy has moved out of its initial phase into a more mature, much lower cost phase. The same is true for wind energy. During this same time there has been a dramatic increase in miles per gallon efficiency in new automobiles. The Great Recession created habits of thrift and conservation that have stayed in place. Public transportation in the United States and other developed countries has seen levels of passengers not seen in decades. The cause and effect connection between the burning of fossil fuels and extreme weather and climate change is being more widely understood and accepted. All of these different points may be suggesting that we are entering a less volatile time of gradually lowering global energy costs.

I recently wrote my monthly column in the Sarasota Herald-Tribune on this topic, which you can read here.

As those of you who are regular readers of my blog know, I have been thinking and writing about the beginning of the second stage of the global economy. If you haven’t read those columns you can click on the links to the first, second and third columns.

It could well be that a defining part of at least the beginning of this new second stage of the global economy will be an ongoing recasting of the global energy landscape. One with expectations of gradually lowering costs across the board.