Monday, March 08, 2010

In true March Madness style, the previous 72 hours did more to complicate the bracket than it did to finalize it. The biggest mess continues to be the bubble, where a dozen of the weakest at-large hopefuls we can remember are playing their way out of the bracket more than they are playing their way in.

Here's how we see the Last Four In and Last Four Out - for now - with just seven days to go before Selection Sunday:

The Last Four InOur last four teams in are San Diego State, Washington, Mississippi, and South Florida. The Aztecs begin MWC tourney play on Thursday (against Colorado State) with two scenarios working in their favor. If they beat New Mexico and make the final, they're in. Even if they lose a close game to the Lobos, we think there's a chance they'll get a bid as well. We weren't ready to say that a couple of days ago, but with all of the craziness of this past weekend, a semis appearance - to go along with a top 40 RPI and wins over New Mexico and UNLV - might be enough to get them a bid. Washington is in this week as an at-large after being in our last couple brackets as a Pac-10 bid-stealer. It's looking right now like even if Cal wins the Pac-10 tournament, that a second Pac-10 team will get in as well. The winner of the potential Washington-Arizona State semifinal game will be that second team, and we like the Huskies to win that game and get the at-large if they need it.

Mississippi and South Florida jumped into the bracket this week because we think they'll win enough conference tournament games to get in. South Florida, after their home win over UConn on Saturday, got the nod as the ninth and final Big East bid because they open with DePaul and then play an up-and-down Georgetown team in the quarters that they already beat this season on the road. Mississippi will likely play Tennessee in their first SEC game, and a win there could be enough to get them a bid. While the Rebels' SEC resume is far from impressive and includes two losses to Mississippi State, they've won four in a row to end the year and they do have wins against Kansas State and UTEP on their OOC resume, which is solid.

The Last Four OutOur last four teams out as of today are Georgia Tech, Seton Hall, Illinois, and Arizona State. The Yellow Jackets are out after a killer home loss to Virginia Tech on Saturday that dropped them to 7-9 in conference. They've lost five of seven down the stretch and they have to play Maryland (if they can get past UNC first) in the ACC quarters. The way the Terps are playing right now, there's no way we see them winning that game. Seton Hall just missed in favor of South Florida because they will have to play a red-hot Notre Dame in the Big East quarters if the get past Providence on Tuesday. Illinois has the wins of an at-large team, but they also have way too many losses. Their home loss to Wisconsin was their 13th loss, and we think they'll get a 14th in their rematch against the Badgers in the Big Ten tourament. That loss total, a mid-70s RPI, and a potential four-game losing streak to end the year will have the Illini on the outside looking in on Selection Sunday. Arizona State's at-large chances, as mentioned above, depend on whether or not they can beat Washington in the Pac-10 semis. If they do, they're in. Right now, though, we like the Huskies better.

Elsewhere in the bracket, there were some significant changes made in terms of seeding. West Virginia moved up to the 2 line after their huge come-from-behind win at Villanova - a result that also dropped the Wildcats (who have now lost four of six) to the 3 line. Pitt moved up to the 3 line, and Michigan State moved down to the 4 line, because the Panthers ended up getting the 2 seed in the Big East tournament, which means potentially avoiding Syracuse until the final. Vanderbilt also dropped a spot to the 5 line after their home loss to South Carolina.

We will update our bracket every day this week and our final bracket will be posted in the mid-afternoon on Selection Sunday. Enjoy the madness of Championship Week...

The BreakdownLast Four InSan Diego State, Washington, Mississippi, South Florida

Can the MWC no longer be called a 'mid-major' anymore?With four teams in- the same as the Big Ten, one less then the SEC, two more then the Pac-10, and one more then the A-10, I'd say this confrence deserves some long awaited respect.

Beau, I think a significant amount of prayer would be needed, and also some bribe money... Duke has played 31 games so far, and just FOUR are outside the top 140 in RPI... This team has played an INCREDIBLY tough schedule this year, and is currently 17-4 vs the top 100, vs 15-6 for WVU, WVU is 6-4 vs top 50, 8-4 for duke. Feels like as long as duke gets by BC/Virginia and then Va Tech(or Wake), they shouldn't have anything to worry about, even if WVU makes a run to win their tourney. WVU lost their conference by two games, how are they one of the top 4 teams?

Duke played in a watered down ACC with really just one other good team (Maryland). What would Duke's record have been had they played West Virginia's schedule? We already know how well they matched up against GT, who finished 8th place in the BE. If Duke was in the Big East they would have finished 5th at best.

I never thought the MWC was considered a mid-major. Used to be that the old WAC, Atlantic Ten, and Conference USA, although not BCS conferences, and not one of the best, were still considered major conferences. When the WAC split, both the MWC and WAC were considered major.

I basically use mid-major to describe conferences where the regular season champ can get an at-large bid, but nobody else can. The MWC and A-10 frequently get bids beyond their regular season champ.

West Virginia's third place finish in the Big East definitely hurts their chances at a 1 seed. The Big East is better than the ACC, but third place is still third place. That would be difficult for the committee to justify.

Pacific would be a 14 seed too. Long Beach State (at 13-15 overall) would be a 16 and likely in the play-in game. We like Weber to get a 14 because they have a decent RPI (77) and the Big Sky is the 18th-rated conference.

west virginia's blowout loss to purdue also kills any shot at a 1 seed. there's no way that the 3rd place in 1 bcs conference leapfrogs the winners of other bcs conferences when it got blown out in its biggest OOC game. had west virginia won that game, it would be a different story.

I'm still having trouble with you putting Baylor ahead of A&M. I agree with your point from Friday that they have a slightly better road/neutral court record; however, they have 2 losses to teams with an RPI over 100. A&M doesn't have a loss to a team with an RPI over 49...and that was @ Washington (the Roland injury game which should be taken with a grain of salt). I think 2 bad losses weighs more than a slightly better road/neutral court record.

Just for clarification purposes... Is this the same "Illinois" team that lost to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Northwestern and Minnesota, PLUS 7 other games? Come on... this is a team that is 8-12 vs top 180 RPI teams. EIGHT WINS vs TWELVE LOSSES.

Just for clarification purposes, "Illinois" has been very inconsistent this year. However, if they somehow knock off Wisconsin and Ohio State in Indy, they are getting in. That would give them 6 impressive wins. The bubble is very weak this year, so who exactly would you put in ahead of them in that case?

It's Duke's # 1 to lose, but remember that Ohio State lost 3 or 4 when Evan Turner was out. The committee looks at that kind of stuff pretty hard. With a win in the Big Ten Tourney final and an early Duke out (not likely) it could flip

Just for clarification purposes, "Illinois" has been very inconsistent this year. However, if they somehow knock off Wisconsin and Ohio State in Indy, they are getting in. That would give them 6 impressive wins. The bubble is very weak this year, so who exactly would you put in ahead of them in that case?

Inconsistency is the mark of a poor team with high-ceiling players, not the mark of a very good team.

Also, like I said. Illinois is 8-12 vs the top 180 RPI. EIGHT AND TWELVE. How exactly do they deserve a berth, even if they do get lucky and string together a couple big wins in the tournament?

Ohio State guy... OSU lost 3 games without turner, and i suppose you can lock down the michigan game as a surefire win for OSU if they had turner, but I think Wisky handles them easily with turner in madison, and I think the butler game is a toss up in indianapolis.

So if you erase 1, maybe 2 losses... It's still hard to envision OSU as being a higher seed than duke, even if duke falls early and OSU runs through overrated MSU, or purdue(minus hummel)and wisconsin. This would still leave them, likely, with just 13-14 wins against top 180 teams, vs 23(minimum) for duke. I don't see how even the biggest OSU homer could POSSIBLY favor ohio state. We must be realistic and put into perspective these tournaments, rather than allowing them to overshadow the other 30 games already played.

Mag-What are Vandy's 3 bad losses? OK, W. Kentucky was really bad, but that's all I see. UT's Southern Cal loss was almost as bad (125 vs. 108). The S. Carolina loss was embarrassing, but they are 84 in the RPI. Both teams have a UGa road loss, which is still in the top 100 and a killer home team. I think the sweep makes them pretty close, like B101 has it. I'd have UT as my #2 4-seed and Vandy as my bottom 4 seed, but I'm not a big Wisconsin fan this year.

The seeds listed above the bracket are in the projected order. Kansas State is the lowest 2 seed. Also, the team that is paired with #1 overall is not necessarily the lowest 2-seed (and couldn't be in this bracket).

If ODU loses tonight, we give them about a 65-70% chance of getting in. We will likely keep them in our bracket tomorrow, but they will need some help over the next six days to keep their spot.

We have Memphis in as a bid-stealer, but we aren't completely sold on their at-large chances if they lose in the C-USA final. Two wins (potentially three) over UAB is nice, but the Blazers aren't a bid-worthy team right now. Memphis' only wins over teams we have in our bracket are against Oakland and Jackson State, and those teams might not make it in the end, either. That's why they're a 13 seed, and that's why they better win the C-USA tourney if they want to feel safe. The only reason the Tiegrs are even in the discussion right now ie because this year's bubble is so weak. In any other year, a resume like theirs would barely make the Next Four Out list.

I wasn't suggesting Minnesota is deserving of an NCAA bid, but if we are listed in the next four out, curious what the experts think it will take for us to sneak in. Is winning the tournament the only way?

I usually think of the next 4 out as pretty far out. By the end of championship week, last 4 in often become last 4 out, and last 4 out often become next 4 out, barring some sort of huge run. IMO, Minnesota would have to make a run to the Big Ten final.

Texas A&M is better then a 6, i mean look at there resume, its crazy how good they are and what there doing, and if they make some noise in the big 12 tourny then they can be fighting for a 5 or 4 seed.

Actually, first four out has always bugged me. I would think the first four out would be the first 4 teams you deem as not tournament worthy. The last four out would be the last ones you exclude. Just like when you play the NCAA tournament, the last team out is the runner up, and the first team out is the loser of the 64/65 game.

Wisconsin is seeded behind Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan State because they finished a game worse than those teams in conference. The gap between the Badgers and Spartans is very small, and we wouldn't be surprised if they swapped seeds or were on the same line after the conclusion of the Big Ten tourney.

Is conference record the only thing pushing the WI Badgers below them? We can throw Purdue at the top as they're overall record obviously is above. Overall their resume is obviously better. Overall they have the same(7) losses. They had to play the other top 3 teams in coverence more than Michigan State and Purdue did. They blew both those teams out, and lost close games to them. going 50%. Their overall resume is better. And, they also had a huge injury to John Leuer.

I can understand you all having Georgetown as a 5 seed, especially if you think USF will beat them on Wednesday. But Lunardi has Georgetown as a 6. This is a team with 5 wins over the top 17 teams in the RPI. The #1 SOS. The hardest schedule in the Big East (part of the reason they finished 8th -- home and aways with #1 and #4 -- road only against 2,3,5 and 6). Sure, they have 1 bad loss - at Rutgers (their next worst loss is RPI 63 -- USF), but that doesn't eliminate all of the quality wins.

Agree with the Wisconsin guy. Seems a little unfair to penalize Wisconsin (who does have a superior OOC resume to Mich St) because they finished 1 game in conference behind Mich St.

Especially when you consider Mich St only had to play Ohio State (most would agree the current best team in conference) once (and they lost at home to OSU) and their lone victory over Purdue was without Hummel (while Wisconsin played Purdue twice with Hummel).

Last week you had Mississippi State making the field largely based on the assumption they would beat Tennessee. That didn't happen, but now you have made a similar assumption with Ole Miss - that Ole Miss will knock off Tennessee and move into the bracket. As you might guess, I'm a Vols fan, and just wondering why you seem to be down on them. I know you have them as four but still...

Agree with you on Georgetown. I think they are going to be one of the teams everyone is surprised with how high they are seeded. Can't see them being worse than a low 4/high 5 with a win of USF on Wed. Don't forget, another strong showing after beating Cincy on Sat will show that the Freeman injury really was a factor during their psuedo-slide in the latter part of the BE.

If St. Mary's loses tonight, they'll have about a 65-70% chance of making it too - just like ODU does if they lose to W&M. A good case could be made for each team to get in over the other in that scenario: ODU has a conference title and the best win, while St. Mary's has two good wins to ODU's one. St. Mary's first needs to be competitive against the Zags tonight. If they lose by double-digits, it hurts their chances significantly.

The winner of URI-Saint Louis still has to beat Temple to be in the mix.

Wisconsin was played all its big games very early in the season, and kind of were out of sight, out of ind after that, especially with Leuer's injury.

Despite that they were a bit hosed at Purdue without Leuer on a blatantly missed fould call in the closing second. They are treated as second class citizens behind the league tri-champs, a 1-game difference that is due as much to schedule as anything. They beat Duke, Maryland, Marquette, OSU, Purdue, and MSU. Pomeroy and Sagarin's performance based ratings both have the Badgers in the top 10 in the nation, without even taking Leuer's absence into account.

Two years ago when the Badgers were 29-4, winners of both the regular season and tournament titles in the league, with a road win over Texas and still got a 3 seed behind 28-6 Texas and others with arguably weaker resumes. That is not an historical anamoly.

Rest assured, you can take Wisconsin's reasonable, earned seed line and add a least 1. It's a committee tradition.

I despise UConn and think it's highly unlikely this will happen but can't see how they wouldn't be a mortal lock if they just make the BE finals. That would require them to beat @St Johns, Marquette, Nova, and either Cuse or Georgetown. They'd pretty much have 5 victories that no one (not even a 1 seed) could match. That being Nova twice, Texas, West Virginia, and Cuse/Gtown.

I think if they just make the semis and play real competitively against Syracuse, they'd be right on the bubble having added victories St Johns, Marquette, and Nova.

How far will Gonzaga fall after this blowout loss to St. Mary's? Outside of the win against Wisconsin in November, Gonzaga doesn't really have any great wins. I think the teams you have seeded 7-8 have better resumes than the Zags. Am I wrong to think that they should drop to at least an 8 seed?

I'm just amazed that the seven seeds include 3 of the top 20 according to Pomeroy, and would likely be favored against the 3 seeds head to head. (or, to put it in the negative, have fun picking against Temple, New Mexico, and Pittsburgh)

Pomeroy has its uses, but is there anyone that truly believes Duke is the #1 team in the country? Last year, his system had Memphis at #2. Obviously it has its limitations. It rewards teams that play close losses and win in blowouts.

I doubt the committee, some of whom aren't even basketball people, know who Pomeroy is.

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