For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion
polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after
survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy
Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few
points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had
defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular votea rout
for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the...