Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

12/3/12

2 weeks ago

26/3/12

Last week

2/4/12

This week

10/4/12

Liberal

46%

45%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

47%

48%

50%

Labor

38.0%

31%

34%

33%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

9%

8%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

54%

55%

57%

Labor

50.1%

43%

46%

45%

43%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Q. Tony Abbott has said that if he became Prime Minister he would ask the Productivity Commission to look into extending the childcare rebate to childcare provided by nannies. Would you support or oppose the Government paying a childcare rebate for nannies?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

44%

33%

57%

33%

Total oppose

33%

49%

24%

44%

Strongly support

12%

9%

17%

10%

Support

32%

24%

40%

23%

Oppose

20%

27%

18%

20%

Strongly oppose

13%

22%

6%

24%

No opinion

22%

18%

19%

23%

44% support the Government paying a childcare rebate for nannies and 33% oppose. 49% of Labor voters and 44% of Greens voters are opposed but 57% of Liberal/National voters support the measure.

Support is higher among younger respondents – those aged under 45 split 53% support/24% oppose and those aged 45+ split 36% support/44% oppose.

48% of those on income under $600pw oppose and 32% support, but all higher income groups are more likely to support.

Q. The Federal Government is currently running a budget deficit, but intends to return to surplus with the budget for 2012-13 to be announced next month. Which of the following do you think has been most responsible for the deficit over the last few years?

Total 11/4/11

Total 10/4/12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Poor economic management by the Government

23%

28%

7%

48%

7%

Big companies not paying their fair share of taxes

17%

16%

28%

5%

28%

Lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis

13%

16%

27%

10%

22%

Spending on big projects like the National Broadband Network

14%

15%

14%

17%

10%

The cost of the Government’s GFC stimulus packages

19%

12%

11%

13%

15%

Don’t know

15%

14%

13%

8%

18%

Overall, respondents believe the main reasons for the budget deficit are poor economic management by the Government (28%), big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (16%) and lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis (16%).

Since this question was asked 12 months ago, those blaming the Government for poor economic management has increased from 23% to 28% and those blaming the cost of the Government’s GFC stimulus packages has declined from 19% to 12%.

Labor voters were most likely to blame big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (28%) and lower tax revenues because of the GFC (27%) while Liberal/National voters blame poor economic management by the Government (48%). Greens voters tended to blame big companies not paying their fair share of taxes (28%).

Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?

Total 4/4/11

Total 28/11/11

Total 10/4/12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Return to surplus by 2012/13, cut services, raise taxes

14%

13%

12%

13%

13%

7%

Delay return to surplus, maintain services, invest in infrastructure

69%

71%

73%

73%

76%

81%

Don’t know

17%

15%

15%

13%

12%

12%

12% support the return to surplus by 2012/13 if it means cutting services and raising taxes and 73% think the Government should delay the return to surplus and maintain services and investment. Support for a return to surplus has not significantly changed since this question was asked in November last year.

Q. In order to meet their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?

Total

11/4/11

Total 10/4/12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increase taxes for big corporations

63%

67%

81%

55%

80%

Reduce tax breaks for high income earners

51%

57%

65%

52%

71%

Postpone major infrastructure projects like the NBN

na

41%

29%

58%

19%

Reduce defence spending

32%

38%

42%

30%

64%

Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments

36%

36%

37%

38%

36%

Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits

21%

23%

18%

32%

12%

It does not need to return to surplus so quickly

38%

63%

67%

66%

58%

Overall, the most favoured means of returning the budget to surplus were increasing taxes for big corporations (67%) and reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (57%). Both these measures were strongly favoured by Labor and Greens voters.

Although support was less strong, these two measures were also two of the three the most preferred among Liberal/National voters – 58% think the Government should postpone major infrastructure projects like the NBN.

The main changes since this question was asked 12 months ago are increases in support for reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (up 6%) and reducing defence spending (up 6%).

Note, although 63% thought that the budget does not need to return to surplus so quickly, some of these respondents also agreed with some of the measures listed.

Q. Do you think the Government subsidies and benefits (such as health insurance rebates, childcare rebates, age pensions) should be means tested (that is, reduced or not paid to people on higher incomes) or should people receive the same subsidies and benefits from the Government regardless of their income?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Subsidies and benefits should be means tested

68%

79%

63%

74%

People should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income

24%

16%

30%

18%

Don’t know

8%

5%

7%

8%

68% agree that Government subsidies and benefits should be means tested and 24% think people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income.

Means testing was supported by 77% of respondents aged 45+ and 60% of those aged under 45. 76% of those earning less than $600pw supported means testing compared to 65% of those earning $1,600+.

Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:

Labor

Liberal

No difference

Don’t know

Difference

Representing the interests of Australian working families

37%

25%

29%

9%

+12

Representing the interests of you and people like you

29%

35%

26%

10%

-6

Standing up for the middle class in Australia

26%

33%

30%

11%

-7

Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests

10%

54%

25%

11%

-44

Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests

37%

22%

30%

11%

+15

Handling the economy overall

22%

41%

26%

10%

-19

Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups

29%

34%

25%

12%

-5

Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business

22%

40%

25%

13%

-18

Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class

23%

38%

27%

12%

-15

Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most.

26%

36%

27%

11%

-10

Labor was considered best at representing the interests of Australian working families (37%) and being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests (37%). The Liberals were considered best on all the other measures.

In particular, the Liberal Party was considered much better on representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests (54%), handling the economy overall (41%) and handling the economy in a way that best helps small business (40%).