The Power of the Second Derivative

We may recall from our calculus courses that the first derivative is the rate of change and the second derivative is the rate of rate of change, so, for example, if we consider distance traveled, then the first derivative is speed and the second derivative is acceleration or deceleration (if negative).

If some statistic, such as the weekly unemployment figure, is accelerating, that is unquestionably bad, but if it is decelerating, that’s considered good, even if the rate is still very high. Of course, it isn’t really good until the rate is low … but you need to decelerate to get there.

So where do we stand with security breaches? Unfortunately, we still appear to be in acceleration mode. Known vulnerabilities and the impact of exploits against them are not just increasing, they are both still accelerating. And there is no end in sight for these trends.