A Fixed Income Strategy to Combat Interest Rate Risk

In its report, “Myth
Busting: It May Be Possible to Reach DB Plan Objectives Regardless of Interest
Rates,” Principal notes that fixed income allocations
are closely tied to interest rate levels, but no one can accurately
predict whether they will rise or fall. This uncertainty can leave defined benefit plan
sponsors open to unnecessary risk and potentially higher cost.

The analysis covered by the report finds a combination of core and very long bonds
that match a plan’s liability duration comes out on top in a significant
percentage of interest rate scenarios.

The report authors modeled three fixed income strategies in three interest
rate scenarios—with rates rising, falling or staying the
same—over a 10-year period. The strategies were evaluated for the impact to
funded status and total accounting cost.

“Contrary to conventional wisdom, our analysis finds that a
middle approach to bond duration will, under a broad range of economic
outcomes, lead to the best combination of the lowest consistent cost, the least
volatility and the highest return,” says Barry Young, consulting actuary of
retirement and investor services at The Principal, based in Des Moines, Iowa.
“Instead of basing fixed income strategy on an estimate of where interest rates
will head, plan sponsors could use this bond duration approach to meet
objectives in any interest rate environment.”

He adds: “These findings are a call to action for defined benefit
plan sponsors and their financial professionals to evaluate and maybe modify
their fixed income strategy.”