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COP 21 Carbon Cutting Absurdity, Part 1 of 3

The COP 21 agreement is absurd, and is likely to become a tragedy for mankind if actually implemented.

The COP 21 agreement is based on the premiss that CO2 emissions must be cut 50% worldwide by 2050 or there will be a climate catastrophe. This, in turn, is based on the assumption that atmospheric CO2 must be kept below 450 ppm. Atmospheric CO2 is currently 400 ppm.

Computer models predict that temperatures could rise as much as 8 degrees F if these last 50 ppm are allowed to happen.

The assumption has also been that developed countries, including the United States, must cut their CO2 emissions by 80%, so that undeveloped countries, including China and India, can continue to increase their CO2 emissions, although at a slower rate.

But, are these basic assumptions valid?

Table 1

Country

CO 2 emissions (MMT)

Per capita emissions (Tons)

% of Total World

World

35,270

–

China

10,300

7.4

29.2%

United States

5,300

16.6

15.0%

EU28

3,400

6.8

9.6%

India

2,500

1.9

7.1%

Russia

1,800

12.6

5.1%

Japan

1,400

10.7

4.0%

70.0%

Estimates for 2014

Table 1 from Nothing to Fear

These 6 countries account for 70% of CO2 emissions worldwide.

Realistically, only two sources of CO2 emissions are relevant to any attempt to cut CO2 emissions.

They are:

Gasoline

Generation of electricity

Industrial causes are too diverse for effective action. They include cement production, natural gas for heat treating and heating, etc.

Table 2

U.S. CO2 Emissions 2004

Source

MMT

% Total

Electric Generation

2298.6

39%

Gasoline

1162.6

20%

Industrial

1069.3

18%

Transportation (Excluding Gasoline)

771.1

13%

Residential

374.7

6%

Commercial

228.8

4%

United States Total

5905.1

100%

Total excludes approximately 70 MMT of CO2 emissions from miscellaneous sources.

Source: Emission of Greenhouse Gasses in the United States 2005 by DOE Energy Information Administration.

MMT = Million Metric Tons

Table 2 from Nothing to Fear

While Table 2 is for the United States, both Europe and Russia have similar distributions of CO2 emissions, while China and India, the two largest developing countries, have more emissions from the generation of electricity than from gasoline usage.

Is the COP 21 agreement realistic, or a farce?

How will it be possible to cut CO2 emissions 80% from the generation of electricity and the usage of gasoline?

But before examining how the United States can cut its CO2 emissions 80% by 2050, one has to wonder whether such a herculean effort would have any effect on the world’s ability to prevent the climate catastrophe predicted by the UNFCCC and IPCC, which is the basis for the COP 21 agreement?

What are the facts?

China and India already emit more CO2 than does the United States, Europe, Russia and Japan combined.

China and India are developing countries that will be allowed to increase their CO2 emissions.

The UN has said the world must cut total CO2 emissions 50% by 2050, which means, referring to Table 1, cutting CO2 emissions by 17,635 MMT.

Assuming the United States, Europe, Russia and Japan cut their CO2 emissions 80%, it would amount to only 9,520 MMT, nowhere near the 17,635 MMT needed for the world to prevent a climate catastrophe.

The remaining developing countries that produce 30% of the world’s CO2 emissions are mostly struggling to survive, with countries in Africa and many in Asia barely at subsistence levels, and mostly, with the exception of oil producing countries and S. Korea, unable to cut CO2 emissions by any amount.

No amount of speech making by 10,000 attendees in Marrakesh, at the UN COP 22 climate change conference the week of November 6, will change these facts.

From UNFCCC web site

The only conclusion that can be reached is that it is impossible for the world to cut CO2 emissions enough to prevent a climate catastrophe.

On this basis, COP 21 is worse than a farce, it is a tragedy.

(The next articles will examine whether the United States can cut its CO2 emissions 80% by 2050 as demanded by Obama and the EPA.)

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Nothing to Fear is available from Amazon and some independent book sellers.

Link to Amazon: http://amzn.to/1miBhXy

Book Cover, Nothing to Fear

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Since 2005, the US has cut CO2 emissions by about 12%. This mainly from substituting natural gas for coal and greater use efficiencies in many things including transportation, industrial processes, heating insulation, appliances and electronics, etc. That is about half way to the goal of 25-30% by 2025-2030.
However, for the US to cut CO2 by 50% would require total substitution of natural gas for all power plants and all transportation.
For the US to cut CO2 by 80% would require no burning of fossil fuel, and it might require some curtailment of all types of other CO2 sources, especially land use.