Dueling polls shed light on races for Missouri Senate, Governor

A new poll released Saturday and commissioned by three Missouri media outlets shows the races for Missouri’s Senate and Governor seats tightening up.

But Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s campaign released an internal poll the same day showing she is maintaining a large lead over Republican challenger Todd Akin.

The first poll was paid for by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star and KMOV out of St. Louis. It showed McCaskill with a lead of 2 percentage points over Akin, or 45 percent to 43 percent.

That poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, and had a margin of error of 4 percent. It interviewed 625 people from Oct. 23 to 25.

Overall, more respondents said they had a favorable view of McCaskill than Akin, or 40 percent approval for McCaskill to 28 percent for Akin.

Akin’s statements about “legitimate rape” and abortion seemed to factor heavily in voters’ minds. The poll said 54 percent of respondents said the comments were “very important” or “somewhat important.”

A majority of those polled in southwest Missouri, 54 percent to 37 percent, said they would vote for Akin over McCaskill if the election was held today.

In the governor’s race, Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon had a lead of 6 percentage points over Republican Dave Spence, a St. Louis businessman.

More respondents had a favorable view of Nixon than Spence, or 45 percent to 30 percent.

And like the Senate election, a majority of respondents in southwest Missouri would vote for Spence over Nixon if the election were today. That margin was 51 percent to 41 percent.

McCaskill’s campaign countered the poll with their own internal survey that showed her with a 53 percent to 39 percent lead over Akin. That poll was conducted on Oct. 24 and 25.

The poll was conducted by Kiley and Company of Boston, Mass., and interviewed 600 Missourians.

Those numbers were similar to another internal poll issued by McCaskill’s campaign on Oct. 18.

The newest internal poll also said Akin’s approval ratings dropped from Oct. 18.

McCaskill’s survey also showed Nixon with a large gap over Spence — 55 percent to 33 percent — than the Mason-Dixon poll.

The National Journal reports McCaskill’s internals compare with those of other Democratic polls. That has given the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee enough confidence to pull back on its media buys in the state. The committee will trim about $1 million of a planned $5 million in reserved air time.

About Josh Nelson

I'm the statehouse and politics reporter for the News-Leader. I'm an Iowa farm kid, Iowa State grad and a full-time political junkie.