Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Thursday, 8 September 2016

July was a poor month for betting MLB favourites this year. It's always a disjointed month with the flow of the season interrupted by the All-Star break, (I keep records for pre and post break periods) but since the reverse favourite-longshot bias evaporated in the 2012 season, July 2016 was the worst month for favourites at 1.5 or shorter.

One trend that did hold true again this season was that of favourites doing well in their first games after the break. The rationale for this is that although the better teams are likely to be better represented at the All-Star game, many of those will only put in a less than exhausting cameo performance, while the majority of their players enjoy the break and get some rest which apparently benefits better teams more than worse teams.

These once a year trends are of limited value of course - come next year and 99% of people reading this will have forgotten about it. One idea with season long potential was triggered by a conversation with baseball expert Fizzer on the topic of matches with high run totals.

Our results showed that as totals increased, underdogs performed increasingly well for bettors. Essentially, high totals equate to more scoring and more unpredictability and this volatility was disproportionately beneficial to the team receiving plus money.

I took out the no-hoper underdogs, and so far this season the ROI is 12.9% from 79 selections. In 2015, ROI was 5.8% from 48 matches, but was a losing play in 2012, 2013 and 2014 so no champagne celebrations yet.

Hopefully some of you took the Under 41.5 at 2.0 on tonight's opening NFL game as recommended here earlier this week. The price right now is 1.84 / 1.85 on Betfair, trading as low as 1.80, and a good call if I do say so myself.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.