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Ohio State needs help to avoid No. 5 seed in Big Ten Tournament: The possibilities

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Sam Thompson and Ohio State lost to Indiana at home and now either need to beat the Hoosiers in Bloomington or get some help from others to get a bye in the Big Ten Tournament.
(Photo by Jay LaPrete, AP)

COLUMBUS, Ohio - Ohio State moved up two spots in the AP rankings, from No. 18 to No. 16 today, after beating Minnesota and Michigan State last week. That's after falling five spots, from No. 13 to No. 18, after a 22-point loss at Wisconsin eight days ago.

So it's harder to climb up than it is to fall back. The Buckeyes did move up three spots in the coaches poll, from No. 18 to No. 15.

But all that really matters now is tournament seeding, not poll ranking.

Consider then the Big Ten Tournament, with the Buckeyes currently fifth in the conference standings at 10-5. That puts them a game behind in the loss column to 11-4 Michigan State and 10-4 Michigan and 10-4 Wisconsin. The top four teams get a bye in the tournament. The No. 5 team will open against No. 12 Penn State, which is 0-14 in conference play.

So it's not like the bye is that big of a deal. The Nittany Lions have played a few teams close, including a competitive eight-point loss to Michigan on Feb. 17. But that first-round game should really just serve as a good warmup for the No. 5 seed.

Impressively, the Buckeyes haven't played a first-round game since Thad Matta's first season in 2004-05. They were the No. 5 seed twice before, but until Nebraska joined the league to put the Big Ten at 12 teams, the No. 5 seed used to get a bye, too.

The Big Ten is divided into four clear tiers at the moment, with two-loss Indiana in control; then these four teams with four or five conference losses; then the mediocre four-team group, with Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota and Purdue all with eight losses; and then Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State all with double-digit losses.

So there are going to be some ties in those groups. Somebody between Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio State is going to end up with the same record.

The good news for Ohio State is the Buckeyes are done with the teams in the group, finishing 1-1 against all three. But Michigan State plays at Michigan on Sunday, and then the Spartans host Wisconsin on March 7. So the group is assured of at least two more losses.

The first tiebreaker in any tie is head-to-head competition. So Ohio State would split a two-team tie with anyone. But if there's a multiteam tie, know that Michigan State is 3-1 against the group so far with two to play; Ohio State is 3-3 and done; Wisconsin is 2-2 with one to play; and Michigan is 1-3 with one to play.

If there's a three-team tie, the Buckeyes might be in decent shape.

The next tiebreaker is record against the first-place team. This is where Wisconsin's win at Indiana would be big. The Hoosiers and Badgers don't play again, and Michigan State is already 0-2 against Indiana; while the Buckeyes and Wolverines are 0-1 with one more to play against the nation's top team.

So there's a lot left to determine. But Ohio State needs help.

If we give the five best teams wins over everyone outside the top five, and give the games among the top five to the home teams, the final standings would look like this:

Indiana 15-3 (beat Ohio State at home, lose at Michigan)

Michigan 14-4 (beat Michigan State and Indiana at home)

Wisconsin 13-5 (lose at Michigan State)

Michigan State 13-5 (lose at Michigan, beat Wisconsin at home)

Ohio State 12-6 (lose at Indiana)

The best bet for Ohio State would be for Michigan to lose to both Indiana and Michigan State at home to finish with six losses. The Buckeyes and Wolverines are 1-1 head-to-head, and both would have lost both games to Indiana, so next would be the record against second-place Michigan State. And Ohio State's win there would give them the edge and the No. 4 seed.

Or the Buckeyes could win out, including at No. 1 Indiana, to forge a three-way tie at 13-5, and then wind up the No. 4 seed at worst because of that win over the Hoosiers. But don't hold your breath on that.

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