Predictions 2005

On Dec 31, my friend Dan forwarded me a set of predictions from NRO. I replied with my own and have decided to post them publicly:

Elections are held in most of Iraq but delayed in the Sunni triangle. The newly democratic Iraqi government holds off on writing a consitution until elections can be held in the Sunni triangle. Some “conversation” occurs between the US, Syrian, and Iraqi government which shuts down Baathist supply lines from Syria and the Sunnis vote a little later in the year.

Payment of Social Security benefits declared optional (not like other US government debt) Social Security “reform” then consists of expanded Roth-IRAs (the financial industry cheers).

Iran will attempt to go nuclear. The US will attack. China will attempt to take advantage of US distraction in Taiwan. Taiwan will go nuclear to deter China (possibly with help from Japan or Israel).

MSM Journalists will be required to blog (or bloggers will be hired in their place). This won’t solve MSMS problems because the journalists are second rate talents and the structure of MSM needs to change much farther.

NBC takes a shot at adapting to the Internet hosting BitTorrent files of its shows.

OverheardInNYC gets a regular spot in some MSM content (Maybe the Today Show, but more likely the NYSun.)

I actually execute some idea of mine and it goes live. I start executing others before the live one gets very far…

I find a place to live 🙂

Update:
The blog prediction has started happenning on MSNBC (see Lead And Gold)

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2 Responses to Predictions 2005

good lord. prediction number 3 (your expectations of nuclear confrontation between china and taiwan) is horrifying- since what it would come down to were that to happen would be two cost/benefit analyses between the governments of Taiwan and mainland China:

If the mainland Chinese were to choose between two options- number one being to forego reunification even though the US is vulnerable versus taking taiwan, and enduring a few million chinese casualties- and meanwhile the Taiwanese government were to face either accepting terms favorable to Beijing versus destruction since the Chinese are not being deterred by the US- what do you think the likeliest outcome would be? I’d not plan any trips to Taiwan anytime soon under those conditions, personally.

I don’t think that will happen in 2005, as I think China is still reliant on the US for exports. Give it ten years, maybe.

The Iran thing’s just not gonna happen though, unless you count airstrikes maybe.

My personal prediction is that Condi’s gonna spend a lot of time in Europe, the UK, and Israel. The situation now, is one where we’ll want to get along with Iran, lest they screw up disengagement from Iraq, but prevent Hamas from fucking up Mahmoud Abbas’s leadership. If anything positive comes out of foreign policy in years ahead, it will be some progress on that issue. I expect that the nuke issue with Iran will not play wildly differently than it did with North Korea (but which now looks like it didn’t, after all, really possess nukes), and will continue to be a diplomatic fencing game. The reasoning will be that marginalizing Hamas will be a surer guarantee of Israeli security than war with Iran. Remember, the alleged fear with Iraq was that they were going to *give nukes to terrorists*- not that they were simply going to outright launch a nuclear missile and incur retaliation (hence, the rationale for pre-emption). I suspect Iran’s nuclear ambitions would have as much to do with sending a message to the Saudis and other arab states as they do with threatening Israel. I’m not suggesting that there is no threat of Iran giving nukes to terrorists, just that where invasion isn’t an option- the best option will be to remove the context in which there would be a recipient likely to use them.