The destruction of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and the fighting in Gaza are the sort of geopolitical unknowns that send markets off-kilter, albeit in this case not very far off-kilter. The overriding market thesis is that the economy is getting better, the jobs market is getting better, corporate earnings are getting better, the proverbial morning in America is just around the corner, and even with stocks around record levels, even with chaos overseas, now is still the time to buy.

There’s only one problem with that thesis: it’s starting to look like 2014 is going to another disappointing year for the U.S. economy, and the latest reading of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which slipped in June, is the latest evidence of that. Yes, it’s a second-tier, or maybe even third-tier, data series, but it’s one that provides a good indication of the economic state of affairs, and it shows that despite fits and starts, despite grand predictions, the U.S. economy is still struggling to shake off the aftereffects of the recession.

The National Activity Index is a weighted index of 85 indicators, things like production, income, employment and sales, and it’s designed to show the degree to which economic activity is expanding or contracting. Readings above zero point to above-trend growth, below zero points to below-trend growth. As such, it’s a good indicator of when or whether the economy’s reached that elusive “escape velocity” for which we’ve been waiting for years.

The latest reading shows that, no monster surprise here, escape velocity continues to elude us. The index’s June reading slipped to 0.12 from 0.16 in May. The three-month moving average, fell to 0.13 from 0.28. While that is the moving average’s fourth consecutive reading above zero, it remains below the critical threshold of 0.70, a level that indicates a sustained period of increasing inflation. At no point in the past two years, in fact, has the index moved into that range.

What that means is that the U.S. economy still hasn’t broken out into any kind of self-sustaining cycle. As we pointed out in early April, the spring data reports were likely to show higher than expected readings, as the seasonally adjusted data bounded in response to the brutal winter numbers. Once that bounce passed, the economy would be left at its “real” level. Which, we’re seeing now, ain’t so hot.

While all eyes were on Ukraine last Thursday, some investors may have missed the WSJ’s latest survey of economists, who have trimmed their forecasts as the data paints a different picture from the sunny outlook they were expecting at the beginning of the year. The dismal scientists are now pegging 2014 GDP growth at just 1.6%. That’s a full percentage point off their initial estimates of 2.7-2.8% growth, and well below the 2013 pace of 2.6%.

All this explains a few things, like why capacity utilization still has not gotten back to even its long-term average, like why wages can’t outpace even weak inflation measures. It’s why the Federal Reserve is moving so slowly, even after pinning interest rates to the floor for five unprecedented years.

The drag on the economy is the recession, the one that officially ended in 2009, still the crooked, lumbering stallion that’s keeping the U.S. economic chariot from flying high.