Three months of readings after the end of free down-payments, the inventory of purchase contracts rose just 5.25%. The inventory is still is at a record low with the exception of the two previous months – each of which were record lows in themselves.

Since I began in August to forecast a continuation of falling values, frequently I met with anger, disbelief, myopia. This week I wanted to take a closer look. So I pulled out one of the best number sets, and applied my crude math in exactly the same way I always do, but I did a close up on five years of data before and after the peak. The result is the chart you see below.