BMI View: Thailand will maintain its status as a key Asian agricultural
provider in the coming years, as the sector boasts strong export opportunities
and government support, as well as an efficient food producing industry. The
sugar and livestock sectors hold promising growth stories. However, the
government's interference in the market, especially in the rice sector, will
hinder the competitiveness of Thai production compared to its Asian rivals. Rice
production will face downward pressure as the government incentivises farmers to
switch away from rice towards other crops, mainly sugarcane, in a bid to curb
oversupply of rice. That said, Thailand will likely regain its status as the
world's largest rice exporter in the coming years as production picks up after
the drought recorded in 2015-2016.

Key Forecasts
■ Liquid milk consumption growth to 2020: 17.2% to 1.4mn tonnes. Demand for
dairy products will be robust through our forecast period, driven by rising
incomes and continued interest in functional products and dairy-based
confectionery, such as ice cream.
■ Sugar production growth to 2020: 8.9% to 11.8mn tonnes. Sugar output will be
driven mainly by government incentives, strong sugar cane yield improvements and
improved sugar recovery from cane, as well as strong export opportunities.
■ Poultry production growth to 2019/20: 28.3% to 2.1mn tonnes. The government is
aiming to reduce the country's rice oversupply by incentivising farmers to turn
to alternative crops. This will limit plantings growth in the coming years.
■ 2016 BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD37.4bn (down 0.2% from 2015,
growth to average 4.9% annually between 2016 and 2020).
■ Real GDP growth in 2016: 3.0% (up from 2.8% in 2015, forecast to average 3.7%
annually between 2016 and 2020).
■ Consumer price index in 2016: 0.3% average (up from -0.9% in 2015; forecast to
average 2.1% between 2016 and 2020).
■ Central bank policy rate in 2016: 1.50% eop (same than in 2015; forecast to
average 1.80% between 2016 and 2020).