by Kelly Kennedy, USA TODAY

by Kelly Kennedy, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON - The 16 states operating their own websites where people can shop for and buy health insurance plan to launch their campaign promoting the exchanges in hopes of topping the 7 million federal estimate for new insurance customers, state officials told USA TODAY.

A 50-state USA TODAY survey found that the 19 states with estimates for new insurance customers expect at least 8.5 million new customers would buy insurance on the health care exchanges. That far exceeds the 7 million estimate that the White House considers would be a success.

Despite the promising estimates, health policy experts were cautious.

"I think 7 million is a realistic goal," said Kathleen Stoll, deputy executive director of Families USA, a non-profit organization that fights for affordable health care and helps to promote the law. "I don't want to underestimate the difficulty of getting to that goal because of disinformation."

Republican opposition to the law, particularly in the House, has made it difficult to for consumers to learn the details of the law, Stoll said.

"I'm sure those are just preliminary projections," said Paul Ginsburg, president of the Center for Studying Health System Change. "The outreach hasn't even started yet."

Florida, which defaulted its exchange to the federal government, has 3.5 million uninsured people who could buy insurance, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told USA TODAY. Florida had no state estimate.

Insurance plans to be sold on the exchanges range from the least expensive (and most popular among consumers) bronze plans to silver to gold to platinum. Platinum plans offer the most coverage and cost the most money. Most states that have announced prices for bronze plans say the costs are lower than they expected.

HHS will change its methods if it finds that people are not eager to buy insurance during the six-month enrollment period, Sebelius said. That means changing scripts at the call centers available to help consumers or taking successful methods used in some states and applying them nationwide.

"There will be glitches in some states, and some states will take off," she said. "This is a continuous self-improvement project."

Some states seem more apt to "take off" than others.

"We don't have numbers on expected enrollees," said Kelly Collins, spokeswoman for the Oklahoma Insurance Department, "but as Commissioner [John] Doak has traveled the state, many Oklahomans have expressed their dislike for the federal exchanges."

In Arkansas, which has a partnership exchange with the federal government, officials expect 211,000 of the estimated 350,000 eligible for the exchange will sign up in the first year. They also expect 225,000 people to obtain insurance through Arkansas' "private option" substitute for expanded Medicaid.

"We're trying to get fair and impartial information out there," said Deputy Insurance Commissioner Cindy Crone. "What we're finding in common with the uninsured is that they all had been left out."

Mississippi does not have a state exchange, Insurance Commissioner Mike Chaney said. The state's health care providers are concerned about what will happen if the uninsured try to obtain care without insurance, so they are pushing for enrollment in the exchange, Chaney said.

"If these providers succeed, then enrollment should be above 40,000 and could be much higher if the individuals are signed up when they come to the provider," he said.

In the District of Columbia, exchange spokesman Richard Sorian said officials do not have a target, but they do have 42,000 uninsured people they would like to see insured.

When marketers queried district residents, they found that only 15% had heard about the exchange.

In Michigan, officials don't have an estimate for the first year.

"The best indicator we have is the known fact that there are approximately 1.2 million uninsured in the state, which would be the primary group assessing the exchange," said Caleb Buhs, spokesman for the Michigan Department of Insurance and Financial Services.

In Illinois, officials hope to enroll 337,000 people, said insurance department spokesman Mike Claffey. "There's a lot of polling that shows people need information, and we're in the process of changing that."

In Washington, officials hope for 130,000 people, said Bethany Frey, spokeswoman for the Washington Health Benefit Exchange. The state is just starting to advertise its exchange, she said.

Idaho, where most elected officials opposed the law, nevertheless created its own state exchange. It expects to enroll many of the 165,000 people who don't have insurance, said Amy Dowd, director of the Idaho Health Insurance Exchange.

"We will be launching a robust outreach and education campaign around the state next week that will include paid media, earned media, social media and community outreach to spread the word," she said.