May Madness: Men's DI Bracketology, April 27

Notre Dame played its 10th game this weekend, so the RPI officially attained its requisite sample size and, as a result, the NCAA released the offiicial RPI yesterday and today IL brings your our first stab at the 2011 men's DI bracketology.

Because there's so much to be determined on the AQ front with conference tournaments deciding things this weekend and next, this batch of bracketology breaks down the field first by identifying the likely AQs, then the locks for at-large berths, then comparing resumes of teams on the bubble — not in the lead (or not eligible) for their league AQs, but without strong enough resumes to be considered locks.

A refresher on the selection criteria: it doesn't consider a team's own RPI, but puts an emphasis on strength of schedule, average RPI of wins, average RPI of losses and wins against top competition, among other criteria.

AQ Race (6 teams)

America East

The Seawolves travel to Vermont this weekend for their final league game and will host Binghamton in the first round. Hartford and UMBC play this weekend to potentially determine the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds and set up a rematch just four days later in the AE semis with a Hawk win. Binghamton could jump to the third seed with a win over Albany and a Hartford loss.

CAA

Leader: Hofstra (4-1)Challengers: Penn State (4-1), Delaware (4-1)

Hofstra and Penn State play this weekend to potentially determine the CAA top seed. If Hofstra wins and Delaware beats UMass, the Blue Hens sit on top. If Penn State wins, they'll take the regular season crown. If Hoftsra and UMass win, the Pride are No. 1. If Hofstra doesn't win the CAA AQ, they're likely on the "bubble-in," though their best RPI wins are Princeton and Colgate, and a Penn State win would help solidify their resume. (The situation is explained in fuller detail here.)

ECAC

Leader: Denver (5-0)Challenger: Loyola (4-2)

The Pioneers have Fairfield, the No. 3 seed in the ECAC tournament, this week and then host the tourney next weekend. They're a lock to get an at-large berth if they don't win the AQ. Loyola is squarely on the bubble and a Denver win would probably be enough to get in, but that means they'd have won the AQ, anyway.

Ivy

Leader: Cornell (5-0)Challengers: Penn (4-2), Yale (3-2)

The Big Red will host the Ivy League tournament as the top seed, and the remainder of the league scenarios, while complex, aren't nearly as convoluted as last year. Penn is in as an at-large at this point, while Yale probably needs at least one more quality win to get in.

MAAC

Leader: Detroit (4-1)Challenger: Siena (4-1)

The Titans beat Siena, so if they take care of business at Marist (the likely No. 3 seed in the tournament) and the Saints beat 2-10 VMI, Detroit will be the top seed in the MAAC Tournament at Canisius in two weekends. The MAAC is historically the most difficult conference to pick a winner, and will be a one-team NCAA Tournament league this year.

Patriot

Leader: Bucknell (6-0)Challengers: Colgate (5-1), Army (4-2)

The Bison beat Colgate last week to clinch the regular season title and host this weekend's tournament. Army and Colgate's RPI and SOS will benefit from their first round rematch, and the winner's playing (presumably) Bucknell again. The Bison are locks if they don't get the AQ thanks to their wins over Villanova, Penn State and Colgate. Army has a better at-large shot than Colgate because of their win over Cornell. The Raiders probably need to win the AQ because a win over Army isn't likely to end up a top 20 RPI win, though it's possible if the Black Knights upset Hopkins in the season's last week.