U.S. and Israeli officials have declared that a nuclear-armed Iran is a uniquely terrifying prospect, even an existential threat. In fact, by creating a more durable balance of military power in the Middle East, a nuclear Iran would yield more stability, not less.

Fifty years ago, the Cuban missile crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear disaster. Every president since John F. Kennedy has tried to learn from what happened back then. Today, it can help U.S. policymakers understand what to do -- and what not to do -- about Iran, North Korea, China, and presidential decision-making in general.

It is unclear how a nuclear-armed Iran would weigh the costs, benefits, and risks of brinkmanship, meaning that it could be difficult to deter Tehran from attacking the United States' interests or partners in the region.

For decades, Israel has maintained an "opaque" nuclear posture -- neither confirming nor denying that it possesses nuclear weapons. The time has come for Israel to reconsider the policy of nuclear ambiguity.

If the Obama administration has any hope of reducing the world's nuclear arsenals, the U.S. government will have to assuage the fears of nonnuclear states, diminish the prestige of nuclear weapons, and address the risk of proliferation posed by civilian nuclear energy programs.

The outcome of the North Korean nuclear saga has been held up as an example of the Bush administration defying its bellicose reputation and using multilateralism and diplomacy to defuse a crisis. But in fact, the story is one of extremely poor policymaking and a persistent failure to devise a coherent strategy -- with the result that North Korea has managed to dramatically expand its nuclear capability.

The Bush administration has adopted a misguided and dangerous nuclear posture. Instead of recycling antiquated doctrines and building a new generation of warheads, the United States should drastically reduce its nuclear arsenal, strengthen the international nonproliferation regime, and move toward the eventual elimination of nuclear weapons.

As Washington ratchets up pressure on Tehran in the wake of an alleged terror plot, focus has shifted to finding new levers for halting Iran's controversial nuclear program and casting it as an international pariah.

A growing power struggle in Tehran adds new concerns for deterring Iran's nuclear ambitions. Analysts' recommendations for the U.S. range from engaging in direct talks to increasing pressure on the regime and trying to erode the regime's popular base.

North Korea's strike on Yeonpyeong Island is part of a military escalation designed to strengthen the authority of leader-in-waiting Kim Jong-Un, say experts, and underscores Washington's frustrations with Pyongyang and Beijing.

2015 Annual Report

Learn more about CFR’s mission and its work over the past year in the 2015 Annual Report. The Annual Report spotlights new initiatives, high-profile events, and authoritative scholarship from CFR experts, and includes a message from CFR President Richard N. Haass.Read and download »