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Monday, 11 July 2016

Global stocks rise as markets anticipate stimulus

Shares rose in Europe and Asia on Monday and the safe-haven yen tumbled against the dollar after upbeat U.S. jobs data, though the prospect of more stimulus to counter a weak global growth outlook kept low-risk sovereign bond yields near record lows.

Europe's STOXX 600 index rose 0.6 percent, led higher by a more than 5 percent gain for German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp after it said it was in talks with Tata Steel about sector consolidation.

A near 4 percent rise in Japanese shares, their biggest daily percentage gain since early February, was partly triggered by a landslide victory in Sunday's election to parliament's upper house by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling coalition.

"He won (the election) in a landslide and immediately announced that he would add further fiscal stimulus - that is, to continue Abenomics and try to succeed in his aim of bringing the Japanese economy back to life, as well as increasing inflation," said Commerzbank currency strategist Thulan Nguyen, in Frankfurt. "That is causing the yen slide at the moment."

Chinese shares rose as investors figured the inflation numbers raised the prospect of more economic stimulus -- something market participants are anticipating from several major central banks around the world in coming months.

The immediate impetus for investors starting the week with a greater appetite for risk was Friday's U.S. employment report, which showed the world's largest economy added 287,000 jobs last month, way more than forecast.

The numbers, which followed a very weak May report, lifted the U.S. S&P 500 index to within a few points of record highs but also pushed short-dated yields on slightly increase prospects of a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates this year.

The dollar rose 0.4 percent on Monday against a basket of major currencies .DXY and was 1.4 percent against the yen JPY=, which is viewed as a safe investment in times of market turmoil.

The euro EUR= fell 0.2 percent to $1.1025 and sterling fell 0.3 percent to $1.2920 ahead of a Bank of England policy meeting on Thursday, at which some analysts expect the bank to cut interest rates.

SOOTHED

While the jobs numbers soothed immediate concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, many investors remain concerned about the economic impact of Britain's vote last month to leave the European Union, known as Brexit.

Such fears have driven low-risk euro zone government bond yields to a series of record lows. Dutch 10-year yields turned negative for the first time on Monday.

Two-year German yields fell as far minus 0.7 percent, close to a record in anticipation of easier policy from the European Central Bank.

"It's clear investors are expecting more ECB action with Brexit likely to have a negative impact on the economy," said Cyril Regnat, fixed income strategist at Natixis.

Brent crude oil fell below $46 a barrel to its lowest in two months after the Asian data and as U.S. Producers added rigs for the fifth week in six.

Copper prices with risk appetite and nickel topped $10,000 a tonne on mining suspension imposed in the Philippines over environmental concerns.

Gold XAU=, which hit a two-year high last week on Brexit concerns, fell 0.5 percent to $1,359 an ounce.