AMD insists that its forthcoming quad-core processors will be ready for a mid- …

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AMD insists that its forthcoming quad-core processors will be ready for a mid-year release, but a number of reports out of Computex insist otherwise. According to Tech Report and Anandtech, word on the show floor is that Barcelona (the server part that will replace the Opteron) and Phenom (the desktop replacement for the Athlon64) are running behind schedule and that a year-end release is more likely. TR reports that AMD's booth appeared to be entirely devoid of working quad-core products, and private talks with the famously loose-lipped Taiwanese motherboard makers indicate that Barcelona will drop in September, with Phenom following in November or December.

Anandtech reporters heard much the same thing, fleshing out the rumors with further details about the extremely premature state of the supporting motherboard hardware and AMD's alleged troubles with clockspeed scaling. The word is that we'll see some low-clockspeed (1.6-1.8 GHz) parts at what's essentially a paper launch in July, with 2.0 GHz coming in September.

Rumors from Taiwanese motherboard makers are tough to assess and usually should be be eyed skeptically, but last week, Wall Street analysts also forecasted a fall delay for AMD's quad-core line. AMD's stock dropped on the news, and I don't expect the share price to do much better in the wake of all the Computex whispering.

If the rumors turn out to be true, and AMD can't get its quad-core processors into the channel in volume and at competitive clock speeds until the end of the year (or the beginning of the next), then this gives them two more quarters to bleed marketshare. And if they bleed marketshare for two more quarters, and then Barcelona's debut fails to impress, the picture looks grim.

For my part, I'm going to keep hoping for a competitive AMD, not just because competition is healthy but because the company is sitting on a lot of good technology.