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Tim Price: Out of the frying pan into the frying pan by David Fuller

Tim Price: Out of the frying pan into the frying pan

Tim Price: Out of the frying pan into the frying pan

We highlighted before Christmas Russell Napier's suggested asset split: cash, equities, gold. As we wrote, this doesn't seem at all bad. But if you buy our thesis that the investment world is more than usually fraught precisely because we're at the tail-end of a multi-decade expansion in credit, then you may in turn buy our thesis that it makes sense to be more than usually diversified by discrete types of asset. Since we haven't held Gilts for years, we don't have any problem with Ian Cowie's vote against them. But we still see some merit in owning objectively high quality bonds issued by the world's creditor sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns, especially when we can earn a yield of roughly 5% from doing so. We also like exposure to non-western economy currencies.

David Fuller's view There are plenty of uncertainties in today's financial world, not least involving ballooning debt levels in the West and Japan, plus an experiment in QE which exceeds the morally justifiable government bailouts following WWII.

My own concern over government debt levels persuades me that Tim Price is correct in favouring "high quality bonds issued by the world's creditor sovereigns and quasi-sovereigns, especially when we can earn a yield of roughly 5% from doing so." However, not everyone has easy access to those markets, which can cause them to feel less appropriate. Fortunately, most investors have easier access to currencies and equities in creditor nations. Those assets are worthy of consideration.

Lastly, among the most important developments of our time are globalisation and the accelerating rate of technological innovation. Technology is not a one-way street to prosperity because it can hasten obsolescence for countries, companies and individuals who fall behind. More importantly, however, technology is creating opportunities and leading to achievements that would have been regarded as science fiction only a few years ago. Practically everyone benefits from technological advancements but the biggest financial gains are accrued by successful corporations. The Autonomies covered by Fullermoney benefit from both globalisation and the accelerating rate of technological innovation, which could persist for a very long time.

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