Views, comments and learning material on IP communications, incumbent wireline and wireless services and disruptive changes in the telco sector - and how the whole stuff is financed.
I've called this blog Telcotrash because it mainly covers how IP Communications will send the traditional telco world to the dustbin, and because I am so incredibly clever when it comes down to naming things.

In 2008 New 3G Spectrum Auctions in Germany

The Agency's president Matthias Kurth discloses in an interview with the newspaper that the preparations for the auction will kick-off this year, with the goal to sell "a major part" of the un-allocated frequencies for the use of UMTS services. Kurth expects not only the incumbent operators Vodafone, T-Mobile, E-plus and O2 to participate, but also new entrants such as AT&T and Hutchison Whampoa with its 3 brand.

I do not really think that AT&T and Hutchison Whampoa have directly disclosed any interest in UMTS frequencies to the Agency. Given Kurth's mission to encourage more competition, I rather believe that this is an open invitation to these two operators to become active in what is Europe's biggest mobile market. The Agency has quite a track record in establishing competition in the fixed line business, where Deutsche Telekom has seen its market share for DSL lines erode from 90% in 2002 to 50% in 2006. Prices for national and international PSTN calls have fallen below the 1 Cent per minute level due to aggressive pricing by niche service providers (check out the online calculator on billiger-telefonieren.de - and yes that's 1 Cent or 0,01 Euro per Minute).

The two market leaders in Germany Vodafone and T-Mobile already compete with AT&T on the U.S. market (Vodafone through a stake in Verizon Wireless), so the auctions might be a good opportunity for pay-back time, as well as for the next growth story for Wall Street.

With a population of 80M and an ARPU somewhere around 21 Euro/Month, Germany is Europe's biggest market, but also a highly competitive one - mobile penetration is to reach 100% in 2007. However, there is still room to grow and market potential for 3G services. Coverage is still not complete, e.g. T-Mobile started its roll-out in May 2004 and just passed the 50% coverage mark in January 2007 according to TelecomWeb and general UMTS penetration in Western Europe is expected to reach not more than 60% by 2010 according to Deutsche Bank Research (pdf) - still a far cry from the 100% GSM penetration. (see also a report (pdf) from Nokia on the 3G Business Prospects in Western Europe). Additional competition can be expected from the WiMAX players in Germany, among them Clearwire.