Trade window closes on stock teams Friday

Competitors weigh options at midway point

To trade or not to trade. That’s the question this week for the 158 teams in The Blade School Stock Contest.

When the stock market closes on Friday, it marks the midway point in the 12-week competition.

It is the teams’ one and only chance to trade one or more of their four stocks for one they think might perform better in the next six weeks.

Each team started with a mythical $40,000 portfolio — $10,000 worth of four different stocks they chose in February.

As an example, if a team had $10,000 worth of Google stock when the contest started Feb. 21, that stock is now worth $9,305.20. If that’s what it’s worth at the end of the week, the team can buy that much worth of another stock.

Clay High School economics teacher Keith Dunbar says his six teams will spend time this week studying their options.

“We go back a year and look at the 52-week high and low for each stock. We look at recent news about revenues in profit.”

Mr. Dunbar said his students also look at whether there have been changes in companies’ management, whether there has been merger talk, and how the economy in general is doing.

The Clay teams are on the right track, according to Ronald Belle, senior vice president and investment advisers division executive at Fifth Third Bank in Toledo.

He said there are a lot of factors to consider: “Have your stocks performed as your research first suggested? What is the latest news on the stock? Regarding news, look for themes being either mostly positive or mostly negative. Positive news might talk about growth, expansion, increased sales, etc. Negative news would include reduced production, higher costs, loss of sales, etc. A final question to consider is, have stock analysts’ opinions changed or remained the same on your stocks?

One of Mr. Dunbar's teams, Clay8, moved into second place after Week 5.

It is one of three teams in the contest that have J.C. Penney Co. stock, which was the biggest gainer over the first six weeks of the contest. But while JCP gained 53.9 percent over the first two weeks — after reporting better-than-expected results for the fourth quarter of 2013 and releasing an optimistic outlook for the current quarter — it has gained just 1.7 percent over the past three weeks.

He said Clay8 chose J.C. Penney because it was struggling but had quality products. Clay8’s other three stocks — Cedar Fair LP, Wendy’s and Newmont Mining Corp. — haven’t fared nearly as well as J.C. Penney.

He said he thought the team might trade in at least three of its stocks, and maybe all four. But Clay8 doesn’t need to take any major risks, he said.

A few of his five other teams are much lower in the standings and will take risks with some tech stocks, which tend to be high risk/​high reward.

Mr. Belle, of Fifth Third, said teams shouldn’t necessarily stick with a stock just because it has done well for six weeks. In some cases, it might be wise to sell the stock while its value is high. And just because a stock has fared poorly so far is not a reason to dump it.

“Do your research to understand why stocks have performed either positively or negatively,” Mr. Belle said. “From there, you can make an informed decision.”

ADTR, from Springfield High School, moved back into first place after Week 5. ADTR led the first two weeks before slipping to third in Weeks 4 and 5. Like Clay8, it owns J.C. Penney stock, as does seventh-place Mariner, from the Toledo Maritime Academy.

GOLD, a Springfield team that was in first place the past two weeks, fell to 13th after Week 5. All four of its stocks lost value last week.

When the contest ends on May 16, the team whose portfolio has grown the most will be the winner. The winning team will get $250 for the students and $250 for the school.

The second-place team will receive $250 for the school, and third place gets $100 for the school. Prizes may be cash or gift certificates.

The stock contest is sponsored by The Blade’s Newspaper in Education program, the Taylor Automotive Family, Fifth Third Bank, and the University of Toledo, which calculates the results.