Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: A Lot for a Little

The Bucs are getting obliterated by the pass, a dangerous proposition with Drew Brees coming to town. Tampa can't tackle or cover in the secondary, and over the past two weeks has allowed the dregs of NFL passers (Curtis Painter, Alex Smith) to combine for a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Tampa's interior pass rush will be severely impacted by DT Gerald McCoy's high ankle sprain, leaving Brees with a clean pocket. Ranked No. 4 in fantasy QB scoring, Brees is an obvious must-start. ... McCoy's loss will also be felt in run defense, where he was particularly effective early this year. The Bucs ranked 23rd against the run, yielding 4.50 YPC even with McCoy in the lineup, so the bottom now threatens to fall out. Coach Raheem Morris also expressed concern this week with the status of MLB Mason Foster (ankle). Coming off a game in which he led all Saints backs in touches, Darren Sproles is a quality flex start regardless of format. He's averaging 89.8 combined rushing and receiving yards per week. ... Mark Ingram has reached pay dirt in two of his last three games and racked up five more red-zone touches in Week 5, bringing his season total to a team-high 19. Sproles is second with 10, and Pierre Thomas received three last week to give him seven on the year. ... FB Jed Collins vultured another one-yard touchdown against Carolina, but Ingram had one of his own. Collins has three offensive touches all season. Flukily, two have gone for scores.

A healthy, full-time receiver again, Marques Colston played a team-high 48 snaps in Week 5 and should be stapled into lineups as a WR2/3 going forward. In Colston's last four games against the Bucs, he's averaged a rock-solid six catches for 78 yards. ... Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have lost the most value among Saints wideouts with Colston back. Coming off a scoreless, 30-yard game, Moore has a 43.4 snap percentage in the last two weeks. He's a total roll of the dice as a WR3. ... Henderson is waiver-wire material. He played less than Moore against the Panthers and has one catch on two targets since Week 3. ... Robert Meachem (second to only Colston in Week 5 snaps) is now locked in as the Saints' No. 2 wide receiver, although he's really a No. 3 or 4 passing-game option, behind Jimmy Graham, Colston, and arguably Sproles. Meachem still has at least four catches in every game this year and is a much better week-to-week investment than Moore and Henderson. ... Graham has lapped the field as the most dangerous tight end on the planet, and is the position's new league leader in fantasy scoring. His targets have actually risen since Colston returned. Graham averaged seven a game in Weeks 1-3, but has 26 in Weeks 4-5.

The Bucs' offense has taken an ugly step back this season, and the loss of LeGarrette Blount to a knee injury will render it one-dimensional. Expected fill-in Earnest Graham is a 31-year-old plodder whose solid recent per-carry averages have been inflated by draw plays and small sample sizes as a third-down back. The good news is Graham should receive 15-18 touches, and New Orleans' defense permits 5.22 YPC. I'd overlook Graham in non-PPR leagues, but he's worth a flex start in PPR. Even when Blount was in the lineup, Graham ranked fourth among all tailbacks in receptions. ... I'm tempted to say Josh Freeman is a sneaky bye-week QB1, if only because Tampa may have to lean heavily on the pass in a potential shootout. That would also bode well for early-year fantasy bust Mike Williams. Neither player should inspire much fantasy confidence, though. ... The Saints struggle against tight ends on a weekly basis because SS Roman Harper can't cover, but they still managed to hold Kellen Winslow under 50 yards and out of the end zone in two 2010 meetings. Again, Winslow is an uninspiring fantasy option because he's lost so much playmaking ability after six career knee surgeries. ... Bucs slot receiver Preston Parker has been productive only against zone defenses this year, and the Saints play a lot of man. Parker isn't a Week 6 fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bucs 20

Dallas @ New England

Cowboys-Pats has this week's highest over/under at 55.5 points, which is a nice tiebreaker if you're deciding whether to play guys like Felix Jones and Rob Gronkowski. Start 'em. ... Dallas should emerge from its welcomed Week 5 bye firing on all cylinders. At full strength, the Cowboys boast a lethal amount of weaponry, and New England not only surrenders points in truckloads with the league's last-ranked defense, it forces opponents to stay aggressive because no one generates more yardage than the Pats' No. 1-ranked offense. Start Tony Romo. ... Miles Austin practiced fully all week and should be at or near 100-percent health. Wesseling and Rosenthal have Austin eighth among Week 6 fantasy receivers. ... Wesseling and Rosenthal are slightly lower on Dez Bryant (No. 10), I suspect because Austin is a better bet for receptions. I'd consider Bryant just as good a bet for yards and the favorite for touchdowns. Like Austin, Bryant (quad) is back to full strength.

Jones is going to get on a roll shortly. He faces a Patriots defense in Week 6 that surrenders 4.59 yards per carry, followed by the Rams (32nd in run defense) and Eagles (most fantasy points allowed to running backs). If Jones is still available on the trade market, now is the time to strike a deal. He benefited from the bye week, nursing his previously dislocated shoulder back to full health and has been the front-runner for goal-line carries in Dallas' backfield all season. ... Can Romo and the Cowboys' passing attack support three big-time fantasy pass catchers? The guess here is yes, and particularly so in Week 6 considering the opponent and high-scoring game projection. In points per week, Jason Witten is the No. 4 overall fantasy tight end. He should be locked into lineups.

Long a believer in letting week-to-week matchups dictate backfield distribution, coach Bill Belichick leaned on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 5 against a Jets defense selling its soul to slow Tom Brady. According to Pro Football Focus, Rex Ryan's unit used six or more DBs on 73% of snaps, often even employing seven in a rare 3-1-7 alignment. Green-Ellis capitalized with career-highs in touches (28) and yards (149), scoring twice. It's just not fair to call this a sign of things to come, mostly because the Jets' approach didn't work; Brady threw for 321 yards and averaged 9.73 yards per attempt in New England's 30-21 win. Green-Ellis is still the safest bet for weekly carries and goal-line scores among Patriots backs. Four of Law Firm's five touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line, and Belichick trusts him more than Stevan Ridley in pass protection, even if Ridley is a better pass catcher. ... While BJGE is a strong play in a likely shootout, Ridley has resumed risky flex status as a No. 2/3 back in a game that probably won't produce enough rushing success from New England to support two fantasy runners. Keyed by emerging superstar ILB Sean Lee, the Cowboys rank No. 1 against the run and are surrendering a league-low 3.13 yards per carry.

Green-Ellis did show up on the injury report with a toe ailment, believed to have occurred in practice Wednesday. He missed Thursday's workout entirely, but returned Friday. It's still a situation to monitor, because Ridley would leap up the backfield pecking order were Green-Ellis to miss the game. At this point, it doesn’t look like he will. ... Danny Woodhead is supposed to return from a multi-week ankle injury, but should be viewed as a fantasy non-factor, both independently and as a threat to others' touches. There's simply no way to tell whether Woodhead will have a prominent role, or whether he's even going to play. ... It might seem weird, but Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are both top-10 fantasy tight end options in Week 6. Remember, Gronk and Hernandez ranked Nos. 2 and 3 on the team in targets prior to the latter's knee injury. Gronkowski remains New England's best bet for red-zone receiving touchdowns. Hernandez racks up catches all over the field and has monster PPR potential. ... Cowboys slot CB Orlando Scandrick should be no match for Wes Welker in the slot. An incredibly overrated (and overpaid) player, Scandrick doesn't have the lateral athleticism to slow Welker's roll. ... Chad Ochocinco is waiver fodder. ... Deion Branch is worth a WR3 gamble because the Pats offer enough passing volume and efficiency to feed at least three viable fantasy starts on a weekly basis. In this kind of a game, they certainly should be able to support four.

Extra Point: On NFL Network Playbook Thursday night, Greg Cosell of NFL Films pointed out that Rob Ryan’s Cleveland defense double teamed both Welker and Branch on virtually every snap in last year’s November 7 upset of the Patriots. Ryan used a linebacker to hit Gronkowski whenever he broke from the line of scrimmage to run a route. Welker finished with 36 yards on four catches, Gronk four receptions for 47 yards, and Branch 21 yards on two grabs. Hernandez was the big beneficiary of Ryan’s approach, leading the Patriots in receptions (5) and receiving yards (48), and scoring twice in New England’s 34-14 defeat. Ryan, of course, is now the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Cowboys 30

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota @ Chicago

Only two Week 6 games have less projected scoring than Vikes-Bears in the ugliest Sunday Night Football matchup to date. Defense should dominate this game. The premier fantasy play, of course, is Adrian Peterson. In their last four games, opposing tailbacks have gutted the overrated Chicago defense for 516 yards on 90 carries (5.73 YPC), and the Bears have allowed three rushing scores. It can't help that Chicago will be without starting NT Matt Toeaina (knee). The Vikings need to control this game on the ground. ... Wide deceiver Bernard Berrian is expected back in the lineup after being held out of last week's win for missing team meetings. Berrian's return cancels out Devin Aromashodu's fantasy appeal despite an 81-yard Week 5 game. ... Molasses Michael Jenkins has 33 yards in his last two games. He's averaging pathetic 8.8 yards per reception for the season. ... Percy Harvin missed practice time this week due to a rib injury and has been a fantasy disaster all year. He had two touches for 23 yards in Week 5 and has yet to score a touchdown on offense.

Matt Forte is the Bears' only serious fantasy consideration in Week 6. It will be tough sledding for Forte on the ground against Minnesota's No. 4 run defense, but he should keep owners competitive with his versatility. Forte leads all running backs in receiving yards and ranks second to only Darren Sproles in receptions. ... Fresh off Detroit's destruction of Chicago's front five, the unit gets to tangle with Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and red-hot LE Brian Robison. Like Ray Edwards before him, Robison is exploiting single teams and tight end blocks as Allen and Williams get all the attention. He has four sacks and a forced fumble in his last three games. I don't care about Jay Cutler's historical stats against the Vikings. He's going to be on his back all night. ... Dane Sanzenbacher is the lone intriguing Bears receiver this week, and he's only an option in PPR leagues. He'll have a better chance of getting open if Vikings slot CB Antoine Winfield (neck) misses another game. ... Overlook Johnny Knox, who is going to waste in a Bears offense that can't get the football deep. Knox hasn't found pay dirt all season, and his yardage has declined in three straight weeks.

Score Prediction: Vikings 17, Bears 13

Monday Night Football

Miami @ NY Jets

The Jets lost their Week 5 game against New England, but there were promising signs for New York's rekindled Ground & Pound approach. The Jets showed true commitment to the run, finishing with a balanced 26:25 pass-to-run ratio despite trailing 10-0 early. The return of C Nick Mangold sparked the attack, as Shonn Greene piled up 13 gains of four or more yards en route to a season-best 3.95 YPC average. Greene remains a low-end RB2, but volume and occasional goal-line work can keep his value afloat, even if he lacks any hint of big-play ability. The Fins rank a middling 14th versus the run. ... Even with the return to a run-heavy philosophy in Week 5, LaDainian Tomlinson received a year-low two carries and caught one pass. Averaging 54.8 total yards per game with one touchdown on the season, L.T. isn't on the fantasy radar. ... There was chatter of Joe McKnight's role increasing last week, but he got one carry, gained one yard, and is averaging a lowly 2.14 YPC. ... In the Jets' passing game, Dustin Keller has lost the most immediate fantasy value as a result of the change in offensive philosophy. Keller blocked on more plays than he ran pass routes for the first time this year in Week 5, catching one pass for seven yards on a measly two targets.

The Jets' offense isn't spurning the pass game entirely. Santonio Holmes came up with his most productive game of the year against the Pats, scoring 12 standard-league points and 16 in PPR. The idea behind the Ground & Pound is to control time of possession and play with more efficiency, regardless of play call. Holmes doesn't have to "compete" with Keller for targets anymore. Consider him a solid WR3 with upside again. ... Plaxico Burress will match up with Dolphins RCB Sean Smith for most of this game. At 6-foot-4, 213, Smith is one of the rare NFL corners that can nearly match Burress' size. Plax is never a terrible bet for a red-zone touchdown, but he'll hurt you if he doesn't score one. ... While the Fins' pass defense ranking isn't pretty on paper, the life has been sucked out of Mark Sanchez's fantasy upside. He's barely on the two-QB league radar this week.

The Jets may want to consider activating hulking, 346-pound rookie Kenrick Ellis on game days, because they're showing no ability to stop the run. This was a problem even before New York left only 3-4 defenders in the box at New England last week. In the past four games, opposing tailbacks have creamed the Jets for 568 yards and five rushing touchdowns on 123 carries (4.62 YPC). No team in football has allowed more rushing scores (8) on the season. This all adds up to a strong matchup for Daniel Thomas, who should be a fixture in fantasy lineups going forward. ... In Week 14 against the Dolphins last season, the Jets threw a curveball by using Antonio Cromartie instead of Darrelle Revis to shadow Brandon Marshall. Marshall finished with two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. While Cromartie has performed at a high enough level this year that it's conceivable the Jets would repeat the strategy, I'd want to avoid Fins pass catchers altogether before seeing how new quarterback Matt Moore fares. If Marshall draws Darrelle Revis, he could be zeroed out of the box score. ... Reggie Bush is just a change-of-pace back when Thomas plays. Avoid. ... Davone Bess hasn't scored a touchdown all year, or topped 52 receiving yards in his last three games. He's not producing, and never offers upside even when he is relatively productive. Aim higher.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 16

1:00PM ET Games

Philadelphia @ Washington

The good news for Washington's backfield is that it's sure to have success against a Philly defense with no prayer of run stoppage. The quandary, of course, is determining which Redskins back will do the damage. Coach Mike Shanahan refuses to tip his hand as to a Week 6 starter, theoretically making Ryan Torain a high-risk fantasy play. Realistically, though, he's a near-lock to be Washington's lead runner. Finally healthy after entering his first three NFL seasons coming off serious injuries, Torain exhibited the best explosion and cutback ability of his career before the Week 5 bye, ripping off 11 runs of five or more yards on 19 carries at St. Louis, including 16, 20, and 39-yard sprints. Shanahan views Roy Helu as a change-up option only, and probable-former feature back Tim Hightower's 3.48 YPC wasn't cutting it for a coach that so heavily emphasizes per-play statistics. Shanny just had a bye to examine them all thoroughly. Torain needs to be in fantasy lineups because he offers 150-yard, two-score upside against the 30th-ranked run defense. ... Hightower is bench material as the Skins' projected third-down back. ... Helu remains a late-season stash. The rookie may need at least one injury to matter down the road. Hightower already has a balky shoulder and Torain's history suggests he won't last more than a few games, so Helu's break is probably forthcoming.

The Eagles' run defense is fun to bang on because it's a pathetically orchestrated unit, but the pass defense hasn't been much better. No team in football has a worse TD-to-INT ratio against (11:3) and only Miami and Denver have allowed opposing QBs to rack up higher passer ratings. The defense lacks an identity, other than a bunch of innocuous sacks. ... This still doesn't make Rex Grossman a standard-league fantasy option. Rexy has predictably crashed back to earth after a hot start, his yards-per-attempt average dropping in four consecutive games. In his last two -- against terrible Dallas and St. Louis secondaries -- Grossman has completed just 37-of-66 passes (56.1%) for 393 yards (5.95 YPA) and two touchdowns, also committing four turnovers. If Grossman's track record is any indication, the worst is still to come. ... Santana Moss has dominated targets in the Skins' pass-catching corps, seeing 35 through four games with the next closest 10 behind. Moss plays often in the slot, so he'll likely see Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for the majority of Sunday's snaps. DRC has looked lost trying to cover inside receivers this season. ... Fred Davis has slowed down a bit of late, but still ranks as a top-12 tight end in fantasy points per game. The Eagles are annually soft in tight end coverage, and they've repeated that vulnerability when facing capable tight ends this year. In Week 2, Tony Gonzalez touched them up for seven catches, 83 yards, and two touchdowns. In Week 4, San Francisco tight ends combined for seven more grabs, 65 yards, and another score. The Eagles' other three games have come against the Rams, Giants, and Bills.

The Eagles' combination of awful defense and pass-first offense is a dream scenario for owners of Philadelphia skill players. The Eagles can't stop anyone, forcing the offense to stay aggressive and on its toes. DeSean Jackson has capitalized with back-to-back big games (6-171, 5-86-1), leaping to 12th in scoring among fantasy wideouts. D-Jax has scored a touchdown in three of his last four meetings with Washington. ... Jeremy Maclin leads Philadelphia in targets over the past two weeks and is the No. 10 fantasy wide receiver, ahead of Jackson. Since a slow opener, Maclin has three touchdowns in four weeks and is averaging eight catches for 92 yards per game. ... Steve Smith is no longer a playing-time threat to slot receiver Jason Avant, who has at least eight targets and six receptions in each of his last two games. Purely a possession receiver, Avant may not repeat his Week 5 stat line (9-139) for the rest of the season, but he's a worthwhile bye-week WR3 if you're desperate. While the Redskins rank eighth against the pass, the only truly intimidating passing offense they've faced was Dallas in Week 3, when Tony Romo was hindered by a fractured rib.

Michael Vick's four Week 5 interceptions look ugly in the box score, but none of them came on a bad throw. The first occurred when Vick's screen pass attempt was tipped behind the line, and the second on a protection breakdown when Bills OLB Arthur Moats got a clean blind-side path to the quarterback, crashing into Vick just as he threw. The third came on a delayed inside blitz by rookie ILB Kelvin Sheppard, who again hit Vick right as he released. Pick No. 4 resulted from another tip at the line. Protection problems are concerning, but at least two of Vick's INTs were attributable to bad luck. Vick is still the No. 7 fantasy quarterback and an every-week starter. In his last meeting with Redskins DC Jim Haslett's defense, Vick had an all-time performance (20-28, 333, 4-0; 8-80-2). ... LeSean McCoy is the No. 2 overall fantasy running back and No. 5 overall player in fantasy football. The Redskins' defense is shelling out 4.33 yards per rushing attempt, an average sure to rise after dealing with McCoy. There isn't a more dynamic all-purpose runner in the game today.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Redskins 24

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

A.J. Green was recognized as an every-week rather than spot starter in this space last week, and the playmaking rookie's upward climb continued with 90 yards and a touchdown at Jacksonville. It gets better, because Green may have his most favorable matchup all year in Week 6. Playing the heavy majority snaps on the right side of the offensive formation, Green will square off with Colts LCB Jacob Lacey in a severe mismatch. Lacey was torched in Dwayne Bowe's 7-128-2 game a week ago, consistently losing the physical battle. Lacey is just 5-foot-10, 177, so Green has 34 pounds on him in addition to the obvious height advantage. Look for Colts-Chiefs announcers to hone in on the Green-Lacey matchup during this game. Green is a safe bet to win, and a recommended WR2. Through the season's first five weeks, he's the No. 10 overall fantasy wideout. ... X receiver Jerome Simpson and slot man Andre Caldwell are officially canceling each other out in fantasy football. Neither has topped 50 yards or found pay dirt in the last two weeks.

Cedric Benson's 24-carry, 53-yard game against the Jaguars was discouraging, but a date with the Indy run "defense" should provide a quick remedy. Over the past two weeks, Chiefs and Bucs tailbacks have piled up 333 yards on 60 carries (5.55 YPC) against the Colts, including career special teamer Jackie Battle's breakout game. Benson is getting 21 touches per week, so the volume will be there. If the Bengals' line can open anything close to the massive holes created by K.C.'s front five last week, Benson will have monstrous running lanes, too. ... Jermaine Gresham has scored in back-to-back weeks, but his catch and yardage statistics have been hit or miss. It's conceivable that Gresham will spend much of Week 6 blocking for Benson as the Bengals pursue a run-heavy approach. Against the Colts this year, tight ends have averaged just 41.4 yards per game. Evan Moore, really a slot receiver, is the only tight end to have scored on Indianapolis. ... Andy Dalton is the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback through five games. While Dalton has shown the ability to deliver passes to Green and, on occasion, Gresham, he's not worth much in fantasy.

Joseph Addai is out with a right hamstring injury, leaving behind Donald Brown and rookie Delone Carter to fight for scraps in an unfavorable matchup. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in run defense, permitting 3.19 yards per carry. While Carter is the preferred fantasy fill-in as the favorite for goal-line work -- he scored from three yards out after Addai's first-quarter injury last week -- neither back offers more than desperate flex appeal. Brown thoroughly outplayed Carter from the second quarter on against Kansas City, gaining 38 yards on eight carries and showing superior short-area explosion. Carter defines plodder, netting 14 yards on ten carries after Addai went down, including the score. Carter has been prone to negative runs because he's a pedestrian talent and doesn't make anyone miss. Expect the duo to finish Sunday with a similar amount of touches. ... Dallas Clark dropped three more passes in Week 5, bringing his season total to six. He only has 14 receptions. Clark has often looked like the worst player on the field this year, getting demolished as a blocker and hurting his team more often than not in the passing game.

The Bengals have faced the worst slate of quarterbacks in the league to date, so it's fair to take their No. 3 pass defense and No. 1 total defense rankings with grains of salt. It's still enough to question whether Indy will have passing success in Curtis Painter's first start against an above league-average defense. While Painter has shown NFL-caliber arm strength and a willingness to stand tall in the pocket, he's been incredibly inconsistent quarter-to-quarter. In Week 4, Painter's stats were inflated by over 120 yards of Pierre Garcon's after-catch runs. In Week 5, Painter went in the tank after a big first half, completing 3-of-10 attempts for 40 yards in the final two quarters against Kansas City. We'll learn a lot more about Curtis Painter this week. ... The Colts' target distribution since Painter replaced Kerry Collins: Garcon 16, Reggie Wayne 15, Clark 9, Austin Collie 9. ... Garcon has been a drop- and error-prone receiver in the past, but his production and chemistry with Painter can't be ignored. Garcon also has the best matchup of any Colts wideout this week, squaring off with aging LCB Nate Clements. Wayne will draw RCB Leon Hall for most of this game. Hall has limited Wayne to lines of 3-34-0 and 5-48-0 in their last two meetings.

Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Colts 14

Carolina @ Atlanta

Carolina-Atlanta has this week's second highest over/under, behind only Cowboys-Patriots. Fire up your Panthers and Falcons. ... Cam Newton ranks third among QBs in fantasy scoring, and hasn't fallen beneath the No. 5 spot all year. He's consistent. OC Rob Chudzinski announced Monday that Newton would remain Carolina's goal-line back going forward, so he'll continue to be a confident weekly bet for rushing touchdowns. Through five games, Newton has 13 carries inside opposing 10-yard lines. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have combined for just three. ... The No. 3-ranked receiver behind only Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith has proven his mettle with at least 13.9 fantasy points in 4-of-5 games. Smith matches up most often with right corners and will see RCB Dunta Robinson for much of this game. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed 23-of-28 passes to be completed against him (82.1%) this year, for 373 yards and two TDs. It's a great matchup for Smith. ... With a touchdown in three straight games, Greg Olsen is a top-eight scorer at tight end and the possession complement to Smith's deep threat. Atlanta gave up six catches for 89 yards to Packers tight ends last Sunday night.

Brandon LaFell had a touchdown overturned on replay in Week 5, but finished with one catch for 20 yards on two targets. He played a season-low 27 snaps (44.3%). Legedu Naanee played 50 snaps (82%), catching four balls for 63 yards. LaFell could be a bye-week WR3 if he were getting more playing time, but until something changes he's a WR5/6. ... While DeAngelo Williams did well to break two tackles after an option pitch from Newton for a 69-yard touchdown in Week 5 -- his first score of the year -- little has changed in Carolina's M.I.A. backfield. Williams still hasn't exceeded 13 touches in any game this season, and committee partner Jonathan Stewart only got seven last week. Up next is Atlanta's eighth-ranked run defense, a unit surrendering just 3.48 yards per carry. With DT Jonathan Babineaux and SLB Stephen Nicholas back from injuries last Sunday night, the Falcons held James Starks and Ryan Grant to 58 yards on 19 attempts (3.05 YPC), without a score. Williams and Stewart are flex options only. They just don't get the rock enough.

Harry Douglas is the probable starter in place of Julio Jones (hamstring), but Tony Gonzalez might be the top fantasy beneficiary. Jones has primarily been a deep threat so far. Look for Roddy White to run few longer routes, opening up underneath stuff for Gonzo. The Panthers just got destroyed by Jimmy Graham (8-129). Gonzo is the No. 3 fantasy tight end and an every-week starter. ... White still projects as a target monster with Jones out of the lineup. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Roddy seventh among fantasy wideouts for Week 6. ... This is a great matchup for Michael Turner to break off a long run or two and score multiple touchdowns. Carolina ranks 27th against the run, gift-wrapping 4.86 yards per carry. Turner faces the Lions and Colts after this, but it's going to be sell-high time soon. ... Matt Ryan has been a major fantasy disappointment, and he missed way too many open downfield throws in last week's loss to Green Bay. He's still a strong low-end QB1 play against a Panthers defense allowing a league-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 24

St. Louis @ Green Bay

Coach Mike McCarthy's hot-hand approach will continue to make starting Packers running backs a dangerous proposition until one of the top two gets hurt. But this matchup presents an opportunity for the Pack to really lean on the run. In a home game against the lifeless, 0-4 Rams, Green Bay should grab a quick lead and pound St. Louis' last-ranked run defense into submission. James Starks has outplayed Ryan Grant in terms of yards per carry and total yards in all but one game this year, and remains the backfield's heavy favorite for production. Starks averages 14 touches a game and 4.94 yards per play. Grant is at 11 touches with a 4.54-yard average. I'd consider Starks a solid bye-week RB2. Grant is more of a dice-roll flex play because he's less likely to show a hot hand early as the inferior runner. ... Green Bay is dealing with a couple of injuries at tackle, most notably LT Chad Clifton's severely strained hamstring. Not to worry: The Packers scored on five of their final seven possessions after Clifton went down in Week 5, and the Rams rank 29th in the league in sacks. It's not a situation on which St. Louis will be able to capitalize.

The prospect of a run-heavy evolution obviously shouldn't deter owners from trotting out Packers passing-game members. The Rams have lost each of their top three corners to I.R. and already swapped out one starting safety. They have no prayer of stopping Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers leads all QBs in fantasy points and has a 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his last five home games, including two rushing scores. ... Greg Jennings has been better than I anticipated entering the season because he's running a more diverse route tree than ever before. He leads Green Bay in targets and is the fifth-ranked fantasy wideout through five weeks. ... Jermichael Finley has just one big game out of five, but you can't sit his week-winning upside. He's the No. 4 fantasy tight end. ... In his last ten games, Jordy Nelson has six touchdowns and is averaging five catches for 76 yards. He also plays on the same side as Rams LCB Justin King, who gave up Ravens rookie Torrey Smith's 5-152-3 line a few weeks back. ... James Jones has scored in back-to-back games, overtaking Donald Driver for the Packers' third receiver role. He's still only played 46.4% of the offensive snaps and ranked fourth on the team in targets during the two-week span. Rodgers will throw to Jones if he's open Sunday, but the numbers say his Week 5 stats are due for major regression.

Josh McDaniels has a proven enough track record that I'm confident the Rams' offense will pick it up in the season's second half. I just don't have any faith that it'll start at Green Bay. The Packers rank third in the league in run defense and fixed their pass defense in Week 5, holding Matt Ryan to season lows in yards (167) and rating (55.1), while picking him off twice. It was just a matter of time before the Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams-led secondary and Clay Matthews-keyed pass rush got things together. Sam Bradford ranks 29th in fantasy quarterback scoring, and St. Louis doesn't have a wideout in the top 50. Lance Kendricks is 40th among tight ends. Avoid this passing game until further notice. ... I've seen some Week 6 hype on Danario Alexander, from whom the Rams are beginning to remove the training wheels. Alexander played 55-of-75 snaps just before the Week 5 bye, good for easily a career-high in snap percentage (73.3%). If there is a St. Louis receiver to use, banking on throw-happy comeback mode, it's Alexander. ... The Rams won't stop Rodgers, but they can try to keep him off the field by saddling up Steven Jackson. S-Jax has shown that there's still some life in his overused legs by averaging 5.39 yards per carry in three appearances this season.

Score Prediction: Packers 42, Rams 17

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

Despite essentially signing off the street last week and practicing only three times before starting against the Titans, Steelers LT Max Starks proved game-ready. He played all 66 snaps in Week 5, making an obvious impact in the run game and providing Ben Roethlisberger with the best pass protection Pittsburgh's previously beleaguered quarterback has experienced all year. Big Ben took advantage, throwing for five touchdowns against a Tennessee defense that entered the game as a top-five unit. Jacksonville's pass defense is banged up with RCB Derek Cox nursing a lingering groin strain and every-down SLB Daryl Smith likely out with a concussion. Smith is the Jags' best cover 'backer. In Roethlisberger's last two meetings with Jack Del Rio's defense, he's piled up a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Jaguars had better personnel then. A top-11 QB in fantasy scoring again, Big Ben is a quality bye-week starter. ... If you're crunched at tight end and seeking a one-week sleeper, Heath Miller is your man. In the past month, the Jags' Cover 2 has been gutted for four touchdowns by tight ends, in addition to an 8.5-catch, 88-yard average. Miller shouldn't have to block as often as usual, either, because Jacksonville is tied for 29th in the league in sacks.

While an improved passing game can only help Hines Ward, resist chasing his two Week 5 touchdowns. They were Ward's first and second of the season, and second and third in the 35-year-old's last 12 games. Ward is more likely to go back in the tank than rediscover pay dirt this week. ... Mike Wallace is on pace to finish as a top-five fantasy receiver for the second straight season, averaging 108.8 yards a week with three touchdowns in his last four games. The Jags can't contain 60 Minutes. ... Antonio Brown continued to show that he's ahead of Emmanuel Sanders versus Tennessee, seeing four targets to Sanders' three and getting three touches to Sanders' none. Sanders played more snaps than Brown, however, and neither is even a 33% player at this point. They're WR5s until something changes. ... After sitting out Week 5 with a hamstring pull, Rashard Mendenhall is practicing fully and off the injury report. While Mendenhall is likely to lead Pittsburgh's backfield in touches this week, there is buzz in Pittsburgh that he may not immediately return to an every-down back role. The Jaguars' defensive strength is rush defense, ranking 10th in the league and surrendering 3.66 YPC. Think of Mendenhall as more of a low-end RB2 in Week 6. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are change-of-pace options only.

The Steelers have struggled on offense and in run defense this season, but their lone constant has been a shutdown pass defense. 2010 Defensive POY Troy Polamalu has remained the NFL's best safety, and RCB Ike Taylor hasn't allowed a reception of longer than 11 yards all year. Per Pro Football Focus, Taylor was targeted seven times by the Titans last week. He gave up one seven-yard catch. ... In other words, all members of the Jags' passing game are hands off against the league's No. 1 pass defense. That includes Mike Thomas, who figures to see lots of Taylor's coverage. ... Marcedes Lewis hasn't scored a touchdown or topped 38 yards in any week. He can safely expect to spend this game on the line blocking OLB LaMarr Woodley and LE Ziggy Hood. ... The lone Jaguar worth Week 6 fantasy consideration is Maurice Jones-Drew, if only because he gets so many touches (20.6 per-game average). MJD does carry risk, though. Pittsburgh held the Tennessee ground game to 66 yards and 3.67 YPC last week, as RE Brett Keisel returned from a knee injury. Jacksonville's offense will struggle to move the ball, and for MJD's sake I'd worry that the Jaguars might fall behind early. They're overmatched in this contest.

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Jaguars 10

Buffalo @ NY Giants

Entering Week 5, Eli Manning appeared to have his season on track with an 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio and 66.7 completion rate in his previous three games. As is customary whenever Eli appears to turn a corner, a rocky, four-turnover game ensued in a home date with Seattle. Eli still turned in a big fantasy day, of course, throwing for 420 yards and three TDs to give him 11 scores in a month. While a ground-oriented approach is likely against a Bills defense far more susceptible to the run than Seattle's, Eli has statistically "earned" a QB1 start against Buffalo's No. 26 pass defense. Ranked sixth among fantasy passers, Eli is capitalizing on the emergence of playmaking slot man Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks' return to health. ... Speaking of Cruz, the Giants aren't using him as a traditional slot receiver. Whereas most slot men run short, possession routes, Cruz has been green-lighted for goes and flies from the inside receiver spot. It's a way for OC Kevin Gilbride to split the difference. Cruz is a natural in the vertical passing game, and the spot at which he lines up makes him especially deceptive to defenses. With three touchdowns and a 123-yard average since Week 2, Cruz needs to stay in fantasy lineups. He has 20 targets in his last two games, and a skill set that perfectly fits his offense. The Giants butter their bread with downfield shots.

Hakeem Nicks has a team-high 26 targets since Week 2, catching fire with 14 grabs for 227 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Nicks runs most of his routes against right corners, so he'll face off with RCB Leodis McKelvin for the majority of Sunday's snaps. McKelvin is the Bills' pass-coverage Achilles' heel. ... Mario Manningham played more Week 5 downs than Cruz, but saw fewer targets and has yet to score a touchdown or top 56 yards in a game. Mario will eventually break out, but is still in "prove-it" mode. He's a good buy-low target. ... Resist chasing TE Jake Ballard's red-zone scores from Weeks 4 and 5. Ballard is essentially a sixth lineman at 6-foot-6, 275, and has blocked on more plays than he's ran pass routes in 4-of-5 games. ... Coach Tom Coughlin expressed regret about his team's pass-happy start to the year, preferring to get back to running the football. “That is philosophically what I hold to and believe in,” Coughlin said Monday. “I understand that you wouldn’t be able to sense it at this point.” The Bills are a good place to start, seeing as they rank 29th against the run, are serving up 5.54 yards per carry, and may be without Pro Bowl NT Kyle Williams (ankle) on Sunday. Brandon Jacobs will likely be a non-factor due to persistent knee swelling, so look for 25 or more touches from Ahmad Bradshaw as a legit RB1.

Just like last year, the Buffalo passing game is screeching to a halt after a fast beginning. No Bills wideout has topped 58 yards in the last two games, and practice squad-type Naaman Roosevelt led the group with 41 yards in Week 5. It's a talent issue. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have the arm power to consistently connect outside the hashes, and it's going to be especially apparent as wind picks up in late October through December. In his last two games, Fitzpatrick has one touchdown, a 189-yard average, and measly 6.20 YPA. Expect another conservative, short passing attack against a Giants defense that leads the NFL in sacks. New York has only allowed five scoring passes in five games. Fitzpatrick is a QB2, but it was fun while it lasted. ... Stevie Johnson should still pick it up because he's one of the league's better route runners, keeping defensive backs on their heels and showing fearlessness over the middle. Use him against the Giants. ... David Nelson is expected to move to X receiver now that deep threat Donald Jones (high ankle sprain) is out 4-6 weeks. Nelson ran a 4.45 forty coming out of Florida, so he's got enough long speed to excel on the perimeter. But Fitzpatrick doesn't have enough arm to consistently get the football out wide, and Nelson hasn't played this position since college. He's a risky, if potentially high-reward WR3 gamble this week.

Roosevelt has poor man's Davone Bess appeal taking over in the slot, but one of the issues that plagued Nelson inside was the "mouths-to-feed" effect. Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller also see snaps at inside receiver, and the members of Buffalo's constant five-wideout sets aren't going to deliver much production when Fitzpatrick can't top 200 passing yards in a game. Five inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter than Nelson, Roosevelt doesn't have the red-zone chops or athleticism of his slot-receiver predecessor. He's a low-ceiling fantasy prospect. ... While the Giants' front four can still get to the quarterback, they've shown major vulnerability in run defense without LE Justin Tuck (neck, groin). With Tuck sidelined since Week 3, the G-Men have been exposed for four rushing touchdowns and 272 yards on 49 carries (5.55 YPC). Tuck won't play Sunday, which is excellent news for No. 1 overall fantasy back Fred Jackson's matchup. If coach Chan Gailey knows what's best for his team -- and he usually does -- he'll lean heavily on Jackson against the Giants.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Bills 24

San Francisco @ Detroit

If San Francisco's defense didn't get enough credit during the season's first month, it should after last Sunday's dismantling of the Tampa offense. Routing what is supposed to be a more talented team 48-3, the Niners took Tampa Bay's rushing attack out of the game, rendering the offense one-dimensional. The 49ers have a top-four defense versus the run, and remain the only team that has yet to allow a rushing score. While Jahvid Best did well to catapult his yards-per-carry average from 3.17 to 4.90 with last week's 12-163-1 rushing line against the Bears, Best is unlikely to have near the same kind of success in Week 6. He remains a far better bet in PPR leagues than standard settings. ... If the Lions are going to pour on points like they so often do, it will have to be through the air. Whereas the 49ers rank fourth against the run, they're a vulnerable 23rd in pass defense. Look for Matthew Stafford to get back to his usual 40 pass attempts in this matchup. With multiple TDs in every game so far, Stafford is the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy football. ... Nate Burleson and Titus Young are splitting production as the Nos. 4 and 5 options in Detroit's passing game. Neither receiver has scored or topped 51 receiving yards since Week 2.

Calvin Johnson's streak of two-touchdown games ended against Chicago last Monday night, but Megatron reaffirmed his dominance with a season-high 130 yards. The Bears tried shadowing him with usual RCB Charles Tillmanand safety help, but Johnson ripped the lid off Chicago's Cover-2 defense for an early 73-yard scoring bomb and proceeded to whip Tillman for four more catches and 57 yards on comebacks and slants. There's little telling how San Francisco could stop him. In their last four games, the 49ers are allowing an average of six catches for 93 yards with three touchdowns to opposing No. 1 receivers. And none of them was as good as Megatron. ... Brandon Pettigrew has formally passed Burleson as Detroit's No. 2 passing-game option, and that's great news for the tight end's fantasy value. Stafford's target distribution over the past three weeks: Megatron 30, Pettigrew 27, Best 19, Young 17, Burleson 10. Pettigrew is an every-week starter until he slows down, and will likely play an even bigger passing-game role with Tony Scheffler (concussion) out in Week 6. If the target numbers hold, Burleson will quickly become droppable.

The Lions have fielded one of the league's top pass defenses this year, but are incredibly banged up at safety, and it's showing up in the box score. Over the past three weeks, tight ends have averaged seven catches for 68 yards a game against Detroit, with three touchdowns. This is good news for a 49ers offense featuring tight ends without Braylon Edwards (knee) and Josh Morgan (leg). Vernon Davis is sixth in fantasy scoring at his position. ... Executing the turnover-free, game-manager role, Alex Smith has a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio in his last two games. He benefited from throw-heavy comeback mode in Week 4 and a listless Bucs pass defense last Sunday. But it's a talent issue with Smith, not something good coaching can cure. History shows that Smith promptly tanks whenever he appears to have found a groove. Boasting a dominant front four and aggressive press corners, the Lions have allowed the NFL's fourth fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth fewest passing touchdowns among teams that have played five games. I'd much prefer to bet againstAlex Smith than on him in a road matchup with the Lions.

Frank Gore avoided the injury report for the first time since Week 3, suggesting he's as healthy as he's been all season. You wouldn't know Gore was hampered at all based on his Weeks 4-5 stats. After managing an unsettling 2.51 yards per carry in his first three games, Gore has soared to 7.20 in the last two, including a pair of touchdowns. Detroit's defensive weakness is against the run, ranking 18th in rush defense and permitting 4.78 YPC. While rookie Kendall Hunter will stay involved because he's San Francisco's most productive per-play back (6.27 per-touch average to Gore's 4.48), it will in a limited, change-of-pace role. Gore's carries are on the rise, and he's an RB1 again. ... Michael Crabtree played only 21-of-58 snaps (36.2%) in Week 5, ostensibly because the 49ers opted to manage his foot in a game they led 24-3 at halftime and won 48-3. The Niners used a heavy receiver rotation, but won't have the luxury in what's sure to be a closer affair against the undefeated Lions, and because Josh Morgan was placed on injured reserve this week. Don't hold last week's 2-36-0 stat line against Crabtree. He's a quality bye-week WR3 start.

Score Prediction: Lions 23, 49ers 17

4:05PM ET Games

Cleveland @ Oakland

NFL teams often use byes as evaluation periods; a time to watch tape and investigate personnel usage. During their off week, Browns coaches determined that Greg Little deserves to be a featured player on offense. Pat Shurmur announced Monday that Little has been promoted to an every-down receiver, starting at X on early downs and kicking to the slot in three-wide sets. It's usage similar to Brandon Marshall's in Miami and Vincent Jackson's in San Diego. The Browns rank second in pass attempts per game, yet somehow don't have a single receiver on pace for 800 yards. They're begging for Little to step up, and he has a Week 6 matchup to capitalize. The "X" in Cleveland's offense most often matches up with RCBs, where the Raiders will start lanky, thin-legged rookie Demarcus Van Dyke. Built like a running back at 6'3/231, Little's defining traits are physicality and run-after-catch skills. He'll run through Van Dyke on short grabs, setting up a big play down the seam. ... Shurmur also talked up Evan Moore, but it's a wait-and-see week for the situational tight end. Moore averaged 11.5 snaps in Cleveland's first four games, mostly because he can't block. At least Little has been a factor in the base offense before. Moore never was, and may still not be.

Mohamed Massaquoi is the Browns' Z receiver, most often aligning to the formation's right side. He'll draw Raiders top CB Stanford Routt for the majority of snaps. ... Ben Watson owners need to worry that Moore's increased role will come at the expense of Cleveland's more oft-used tight end. Watson ranks a pedestrian 13th in fantasy tight end points per game, and his targets are likely to decline. ... Shurmur was vehement this week when declaring Peyton Hillis the Browns' feature back, despite a 15:12 timeshare with Montario Hardesty in Week 4, before the bye. "Peyton Hillis is going to get the bulk of the carries," said Shurmur. "I can tell you that.'' After four drops in the pre-off week game, Hardesty is headed back to a complementary role, making him a fantasy non-factor barring injury to the starter. Likely to flirt with 20 touches, Hillis will square off with a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd against the run and permits 5.25 YPC. ... Colt McCoy is a lowly 18th in per-game QB scoring, behind the likes of Jason Campbell and Mark Sanchez. It's a bad long-term sign considering Cleveland's pass-happy offense. McCoy just doesn't have the talent to capitalize.

The Browns opened the season defending the run well, before allowing Chris Johnson's year-best game prior to the bye. Cleveland has a talented front seven, and I suspect this will end up as a league-average run defense at worst. It's just probably not good enough to stop Darren McFadden. Run DMC leads the NFL in rushing, 20-yard runs, and 40-yard runs. Among fantasy backs, only Fred Jackson has more points. ... The Raiders' receiver situation has become a quandary, with box scores deceptively indicating that Darrius Heyward-Bey is the No. 1 option. DHB has preyed on Patriots reserve CB Kyle Arrington and Texans RCB Jason Allen's huge cushion the past two weeks, while Denarius Moore contended with Johnathan Joseph and Devin McCourty. Browns CB Joe Haden's (knee) status could turn the tide this week. Haden has the ability to take receivers out of games, and a Sporting News report Thursday indicated that a knee sprain will keep the shutdown corner out of Week 6. Defenses still clearly view Moore as the most dangerous Oakland wideout, even if Heyward-Bey has better recent numbers. Haden's absence is a big plus for Moore. I'd want to start him this week. ... Jacoby Ford has settled in as a passing down-only slot receiver, playing just 40.5% of the snaps. He isn't a fantasy option on that kind of usage. ... Cleveland is a top-four team in pass defense. While that has a lot to do with Haden's coverage, it's hard to imagine using Jason Campbell in a standard league. He's 17th among quarterbacks in points per game.

Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Browns 23

Houston @ Baltimore

The Raiders sold out to stop the Texans' running game in Week 5, but Arian Foster reconfirmed both his health and difference-making versatility with a 184-total yard effort, 116 coming via the receiving game. While Baltimore leads the AFC in run defense, it's worth remembering that Foster touched up a similar-looking Ravens unit for 125 total yards and 5.0 YPC in Week 14 last season. Foster has taken on a bigger role in the passing game with Andre Johnson (hamstring) sidelined, and it will buoy his fantasy stats even against tough defenses. He is matchup-proof. ... Logically, it makes little sense that Matt Schaub would throw for a season-high 403 yards against Oakland, playing without his top wide receiver. Schaub benefited from a year-most 51 attempts, of course, and ultimately performed poorly in the 25-20 home loss, throwing two interceptions and completing 47.1% of his passes. The Ravens have a top-eight pass defense, have allowed just three passing touchdowns in four games, and their defense will be fresh coming off a bye. Schaub is a desperation fantasy option only this week. He's going to be under heavy duress on Sunday.

Usually a sixth lineman, Joel Dreessen flashed with a 5-112-1 line against the Raiders. Dreessen entered Week 5 without a game over 21 yards, and will likely resume blocking against a superior Baltimore pass rush. .... Shaping up as no more than a straight-line speedster, Jacoby Jones flunked his Week 5 audition to replace Johnson. Despite facing rookie CB Demarcus Van Dyke for the entire game, Jones managed one catch on 11 targets and was also flagged for a false start. Jones couldn't have asked for a more favorable matchup; it was Van Dyke's first career start. Throw the towel in on Jacoby Jones. Tuesday's Derrick Mason trade suggests the Texans are considering it. ... Kevin Walter is at least an efficient player, securing five of his six Week 5 targets for 81 yards and a score. Walter lacks dynamic ability, but beat Raiders top CB Stanford Routt to make a highlight-reel 41-yard reception in the fourth quarter and is more deserving of a fill-in WR3 spot than Jones at this point. ... Owen Daniels was Schaub's go-to guy against Oakland, leading Houston in targets and catches. Daniels had 91 yards in the aforementioned 2010 matchup with Baltimore and is the lone must-start Texans pass catcher. With coverage liability Bernard Pollard starting for Tom Zbikowski (concussion) at strong safety, the Ravens will be vulnerable to Daniels over the middle.

The change in offensive mindset just hasn't been there to support Joe Flacco's elusive breakout season. The Ravens are intent on executing a balanced attack, ranking 17th in pass attempts per game and eighth in runs. Until something changes, Flacco will remain a low-end QB1. He's not very appealing against Houston's No. 6 pass defense. ... The Texans have begun assigning Johnathan Joseph to "shadow" No. 1 wideouts, and he held Denarius Moore catch-less last week after snapping Mike Wallace's consecutive 100-yard games streak in Week 4. It's a concern for Anquan Boldin, who's averaging an unremarkable four catches for 49.3 scoreless yards in his last three games. ... Lee Evans (ankle) is expected to miss Week 6 after a downgrade from limited practice Wednesday to no practice on Thursday and Friday. Torrey Smith now appears likely to draw another start. While this matchup projects as favorable against Texans RCB Jason Allen, Smith didn't exactly inspire confidence with one catch for one yard in his last game. It's a situation to avoid, and further reason to nix Flacco as a bye-week starter if possible.

The Ravens had an early bye, so the best way to tell the story on Ray Rice is by assessing his performance on a per-game basis. Only Fred Jackson has scored more fantasy points per week, and Rice is averaging 20.5 touches for 135 total yards and a touchdown per game. The Texans give up 4.81 yards per carry, so this is a favorable matchup to boot. ... Ed Dickson remains the Ravens' best tight end bet, but Houston has not been generous to the position this season. Jimmy Graham is the only tight end to score on them, and Houston is allowing an average of just 2.4 catches for 32.2 yards to opposing TEs. Dickson and Dennis Pitta are best left on fantasy benches in Week 6.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 20

4:15PM ET Games

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are getting obliterated by the pass, a dangerous proposition with Drew Brees coming to town. Tampa can't tackle or cover in the secondary, and over the past two weeks has allowed the dregs of NFL passers (Curtis Painter, Alex Smith) to combine for a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Tampa's interior pass rush will be severely impacted by DT Gerald McCoy's high ankle sprain, leaving Brees with a clean pocket. Ranked No. 4 in fantasy QB scoring, Brees is an obvious must-start. ... McCoy's loss will also be felt in run defense, where he was particularly effective early this year. The Bucs ranked 23rd against the run, yielding 4.50 YPC even with McCoy in the lineup, so the bottom now threatens to fall out. Coach Raheem Morris also expressed concern this week with the status of MLB Mason Foster (ankle). Coming off a game in which he led all Saints backs in touches, Darren Sproles is a quality flex start regardless of format. He's averaging 89.8 combined rushing and receiving yards per week. ... Mark Ingram has reached pay dirt in two of his last three games and racked up five more red-zone touches in Week 5, bringing his season total to a team-high 19. Sproles is second with 10, and Pierre Thomas received three last week to give him seven on the year. ... FB Jed Collins vultured another one-yard touchdown against Carolina, but Ingram had one of his own. Collins has three offensive touches all season. Flukily, two have gone for scores.

A healthy, full-time receiver again, Marques Colston played a team-high 48 snaps in Week 5 and should be stapled into lineups as a WR2/3 going forward. In Colston's last four games against the Bucs, he's averaged a rock-solid six catches for 78 yards. ... Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have lost the most value among Saints wideouts with Colston back. Coming off a scoreless, 30-yard game, Moore has a 43.4 snap percentage in the last two weeks. He's a total roll of the dice as a WR3. ... Henderson is waiver-wire material. He played less than Moore against the Panthers and has one catch on two targets since Week 3. ... Robert Meachem (second to only Colston in Week 5 snaps) is now locked in as the Saints' No. 2 wide receiver, although he's really a No. 3 or 4 passing-game option, behind Jimmy Graham, Colston, and arguably Sproles. Meachem still has at least four catches in every game this year and is a much better week-to-week investment than Moore and Henderson. ... Graham has lapped the field as the most dangerous tight end on the planet, and is the position's new league leader in fantasy scoring. His targets have actually risen since Colston returned. Graham averaged seven a game in Weeks 1-3, but has 26 in Weeks 4-5.

The Bucs' offense has taken an ugly step back this season, and the loss of LeGarrette Blount to a knee injury will render it one-dimensional. Expected fill-in Earnest Graham is a 31-year-old plodder whose solid recent per-carry averages have been inflated by draw plays and small sample sizes as a third-down back. The good news is Graham should receive 15-18 touches, and New Orleans' defense permits 5.22 YPC. I'd overlook Graham in non-PPR leagues, but he's worth a flex start in PPR. Even when Blount was in the lineup, Graham ranked fourth among all tailbacks in receptions. ... I'm tempted to say Josh Freeman is a sneaky bye-week QB1, if only because Tampa may have to lean heavily on the pass in a potential shootout. That would also bode well for early-year fantasy bust Mike Williams. Neither player should inspire much fantasy confidence, though. ... The Saints struggle against tight ends on a weekly basis because SS Roman Harper can't cover, but they still managed to hold Kellen Winslow under 50 yards and out of the end zone in two 2010 meetings. Again, Winslow is an uninspiring fantasy option because he's lost so much playmaking ability after six career knee surgeries. ... Bucs slot receiver Preston Parker has been productive only against zone defenses this year, and the Saints play a lot of man. Parker isn't a Week 6 fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bucs 20

Dallas @ New England

Cowboys-Pats has this week's highest over/under at 55.5 points, which is a nice tiebreaker if you're deciding whether to play guys like Felix Jones and Rob Gronkowski. Start 'em. ... Dallas should emerge from its welcomed Week 5 bye firing on all cylinders. At full strength, the Cowboys boast a lethal amount of weaponry, and New England not only surrenders points in truckloads with the league's last-ranked defense, it forces opponents to stay aggressive because no one generates more yardage than the Pats' No. 1-ranked offense. Start Tony Romo. ... Miles Austin practiced fully all week and should be at or near 100-percent health. Wesseling and Rosenthal have Austin eighth among Week 6 fantasy receivers. ... Wesseling and Rosenthal are slightly lower on Dez Bryant (No. 10), I suspect because Austin is a better bet for receptions. I'd consider Bryant just as good a bet for yards and the favorite for touchdowns. Like Austin, Bryant (quad) is back to full strength.

Jones is going to get on a roll shortly. He faces a Patriots defense in Week 6 that surrenders 4.59 yards per carry, followed by the Rams (32nd in run defense) and Eagles (most fantasy points allowed to running backs). If Jones is still available on the trade market, now is the time to strike a deal. He benefited from the bye week, nursing his previously dislocated shoulder back to full health and has been the front-runner for goal-line carries in Dallas' backfield all season. ... Can Romo and the Cowboys' passing attack support three big-time fantasy pass catchers? The guess here is yes, and particularly so in Week 6 considering the opponent and high-scoring game projection. In points per week, Jason Witten is the No. 4 overall fantasy tight end. He should be locked into lineups.

Long a believer in letting week-to-week matchups dictate backfield distribution, coach Bill Belichick leaned on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 5 against a Jets defense selling its soul to slow Tom Brady. According to Pro Football Focus, Rex Ryan's unit used six or more DBs on 73% of snaps, often even employing seven in a rare 3-1-7 alignment. Green-Ellis capitalized with career-highs in touches (28) and yards (149), scoring twice. It's just not fair to call this a sign of things to come, mostly because the Jets' approach didn't work; Brady threw for 321 yards and averaged 9.73 yards per attempt in New England's 30-21 win. Green-Ellis is still the safest bet for weekly carries and goal-line scores among Patriots backs. Four of Law Firm's five touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line, and Belichick trusts him more than Stevan Ridley in pass protection, even if Ridley is a better pass catcher. ... While BJGE is a strong play in a likely shootout, Ridley has resumed risky flex status as a No. 2/3 back in a game that probably won't produce enough rushing success from New England to support two fantasy runners. Keyed by emerging superstar ILB Sean Lee, the Cowboys rank No. 1 against the run and are surrendering a league-low 3.13 yards per carry.

Green-Ellis did show up on the injury report with a toe ailment, believed to have occurred in practice Wednesday. He missed Thursday's workout entirely, but returned Friday. It's still a situation to monitor, because Ridley would leap up the backfield pecking order were Green-Ellis to miss the game. At this point, it doesn’t look like he will. ... Danny Woodhead is supposed to return from a multi-week ankle injury, but should be viewed as a fantasy non-factor, both independently and as a threat to others' touches. There's simply no way to tell whether Woodhead will have a prominent role, or whether he's even going to play. ... It might seem weird, but Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are both top-10 fantasy tight end options in Week 6. Remember, Gronk and Hernandez ranked Nos. 2 and 3 on the team in targets prior to the latter's knee injury. Gronkowski remains New England's best bet for red-zone receiving touchdowns. Hernandez racks up catches all over the field and has monster PPR potential. ... Cowboys slot CB Orlando Scandrick should be no match for Wes Welker in the slot. An incredibly overrated (and overpaid) player, Scandrick doesn't have the lateral athleticism to slow Welker's roll. ... Chad Ochocinco is waiver fodder. ... Deion Branch is worth a WR3 gamble because the Pats offer enough passing volume and efficiency to feed at least three viable fantasy starts on a weekly basis. In this kind of a game, they certainly should be able to support four.

Extra Point: On NFL Network Playbook Thursday night, Greg Cosell of NFL Films pointed out that Rob Ryan’s Cleveland defense double teamed both Welker and Branch on virtually every snap in last year’s November 7 upset of the Patriots. Ryan used a linebacker to hit Gronkowski whenever he broke from the line of scrimmage to run a route. Welker finished with 36 yards on four catches, Gronk four receptions for 47 yards, and Branch 21 yards on two grabs. Hernandez was the big beneficiary of Ryan’s approach, leading the Patriots in receptions (5) and receiving yards (48), and scoring twice in New England’s 34-14 defeat. Ryan, of course, is now the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Cowboys 30

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota @ Chicago

Only two Week 6 games have less projected scoring than Vikes-Bears in the ugliest Sunday Night Football matchup to date. Defense should dominate this game. The premier fantasy play, of course, is Adrian Peterson. In their last four games, opposing tailbacks have gutted the overrated Chicago defense for 516 yards on 90 carries (5.73 YPC), and the Bears have allowed three rushing scores. It can't help that Chicago will be without starting NT Matt Toeaina (knee). The Vikings need to control this game on the ground. ... Wide deceiver Bernard Berrian is expected back in the lineup after being held out of last week's win for missing team meetings. Berrian's return cancels out Devin Aromashodu's fantasy appeal despite an 81-yard Week 5 game. ... Molasses Michael Jenkins has 33 yards in his last two games. He's averaging pathetic 8.8 yards per reception for the season. ... Percy Harvin missed practice time this week due to a rib injury and has been a fantasy disaster all year. He had two touches for 23 yards in Week 5 and has yet to score a touchdown on offense.

Matt Forte is the Bears' only serious fantasy consideration in Week 6. It will be tough sledding for Forte on the ground against Minnesota's No. 4 run defense, but he should keep owners competitive with his versatility. Forte leads all running backs in receiving yards and ranks second to only Darren Sproles in receptions. ... Fresh off Detroit's destruction of Chicago's front five, the unit gets to tangle with Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and red-hot LE Brian Robison. Like Ray Edwards before him, Robison is exploiting single teams and tight end blocks as Allen and Williams get all the attention. He has four sacks and a forced fumble in his last three games. I don't care about Jay Cutler's historical stats against the Vikings. He's going to be on his back all night. ... Dane Sanzenbacher is the lone intriguing Bears receiver this week, and he's only an option in PPR leagues. He'll have a better chance of getting open if Vikings slot CB Antoine Winfield (neck) misses another game. ... Overlook Johnny Knox, who is going to waste in a Bears offense that can't get the football deep. Knox hasn't found pay dirt all season, and his yardage has declined in three straight weeks.

Score Prediction: Vikings 17, Bears 13

Monday Night Football

Miami @ NY Jets

The Jets lost their Week 5 game against New England, but there were promising signs for New York's rekindled Ground & Pound approach. The Jets showed true commitment to the run, finishing with a balanced 26:25 pass-to-run ratio despite trailing 10-0 early. The return of C Nick Mangold sparked the attack, as Shonn Greene piled up 13 gains of four or more yards en route to a season-best 3.95 YPC average. Greene remains a low-end RB2, but volume and occasional goal-line work can keep his value afloat, even if he lacks any hint of big-play ability. The Fins rank a middling 14th versus the run. ... Even with the return to a run-heavy philosophy in Week 5, LaDainian Tomlinson received a year-low two carries and caught one pass. Averaging 54.8 total yards per game with one touchdown on the season, L.T. isn't on the fantasy radar. ... There was chatter of Joe McKnight's role increasing last week, but he got one carry, gained one yard, and is averaging a lowly 2.14 YPC. ... In the Jets' passing game, Dustin Keller has lost the most immediate fantasy value as a result of the change in offensive philosophy. Keller blocked on more plays than he ran pass routes for the first time this year in Week 5, catching one pass for seven yards on a measly two targets.

The Jets' offense isn't spurning the pass game entirely. Santonio Holmes came up with his most productive game of the year against the Pats, scoring 12 standard-league points and 16 in PPR. The idea behind the Ground & Pound is to control time of possession and play with more efficiency, regardless of play call. Holmes doesn't have to "compete" with Keller for targets anymore. Consider him a solid WR3 with upside again. ... Plaxico Burress will match up with Dolphins RCB Sean Smith for most of this game. At 6-foot-4, 213, Smith is one of the rare NFL corners that can nearly match Burress' size. Plax is never a terrible bet for a red-zone touchdown, but he'll hurt you if he doesn't score one. ... While the Fins' pass defense ranking isn't pretty on paper, the life has been sucked out of Mark Sanchez's fantasy upside. He's barely on the two-QB league radar this week.

The Jets may want to consider activating hulking, 346-pound rookie Kenrick Ellis on game days, because they're showing no ability to stop the run. This was a problem even before New York left only 3-4 defenders in the box at New England last week. In the past four games, opposing tailbacks have creamed the Jets for 568 yards and five rushing touchdowns on 123 carries (4.62 YPC). No team in football has allowed more rushing scores (8) on the season. This all adds up to a strong matchup for Daniel Thomas, who should be a fixture in fantasy lineups going forward. ... In Week 14 against the Dolphins last season, the Jets threw a curveball by using Antonio Cromartie instead of Darrelle Revis to shadow Brandon Marshall. Marshall finished with two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. While Cromartie has performed at a high enough level this year that it's conceivable the Jets would repeat the strategy, I'd want to avoid Fins pass catchers altogether before seeing how new quarterback Matt Moore fares. If Marshall draws Darrelle Revis, he could be zeroed out of the box score. ... Reggie Bush is just a change-of-pace back when Thomas plays. Avoid. ... Davone Bess hasn't scored a touchdown all year, or topped 52 receiving yards in his last three games. He's not producing, and never offers upside even when he is relatively productive. Aim higher.