>> Saturday, June 26, 2010

TD 1 strengthened to tropical storm intensity overnight....thus, we have Alex. Alex continues to organize, but will move into the Yucatan Peninsula later tonight.

Alex will then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico around early Monday morning. At that point, it appears conditions would likely be supportive of strengthening again.

Alex will make another landfall down the line next week, but where is obviously a tough question. At this point, I am leaning toward south Texas or northern Mexico, but there is some chance, especially the stronger the system is, that it heads much farther north in the Gulf.

If you have interests from the central Gulf coast all of the way down through Mexico, you need to closely monitor Alex's progress.

A weak frontal boundary has stalled out around the region, but we will not see a significant cool down through the weekend. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s with mid to even upper 90s through the weekend. It will remain quite muggy as well.

Some afternoon storms will be possible, especially today and tomorrow, with the greater chances for showers and storms will be the farther south you head around the region. Like we have been seeing the past several days, any storms that do fire could produce damaging winds and frequent lightning.

A major pattern change is on the way next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday and bring good shower and storm chances. Behind that front, much cooler, drier air will arrive. In fact, the airmass looks downright delightful Wednesday through the end of the week with some low to mid 80s for highs, lower 60s for lows, and much, much less humidity.

Tropics...

Our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to get better organized, and there is a decent chance this becomes a tropical depression before interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula. From there, the system will likely head toward the northern or western Gulf coast. Stay tuned....

>> Thursday, June 24, 2010

Wednesday was the hottest day of the year thus far in many spots around the region, and today will be just as hot, if not a degree or two hotter. Look for lots of upper 90s today with heat index values over 100 and even over 105 at times this afternoon. Please take it easy with any outdoor plans.

A weakening frontal boundary is approaching our region, and that will bring with it the chance of some showers and storms. A few storms will likely fire this afternoon and this evening, and any storms that pop could produce vivid lightning and the possibility of damaging winds.

Tomorrow's forecast all depends on how far south that weak front makes it. For the time being, I will maintain pretty good chances of scattered showers and storms, but be aware, it might wind up being the higher rain chances are the farther south you head.

This weekend, the front will gradually wash out, and the rain chances will diminish. I still expect a few storms around, but the heat will remain a significant weather story with mid 90s Saturday and mid to upper 90s Sunday.

Relief is in sight....

A major pattern change will occur next week. A strong cold front will move through Monday into Tuesday, and along with it will come good shower and storm chances.

Behind that front, significantly cooler, drier air looks to take hold around mid-week and extend through much of the rest of the week. How about some mid 80s for highs with much lower humidity?!?!

Tropics...

Still watching our disturbance in the Caribbean. It is slowly trying to organize, but the convection associated with the wave is still disorganized. A recon plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today if necessary.

>> Wednesday, June 23, 2010

The heat marches on around the region today. In fact, highs today will likely be the hottest they have been during this stretch of hot weather with mid to upper 90s around the region. Heat index values will exceed 100 degrees at times this afternoon, and the air quality is in the Code Orange category for most sections.

In terms of rain chances, I do expect some isolated showers and storms to fire off this afternoon, but they will likely be few and far between. What storms do form could cause some damaging winds and frequent lightning.

More of the day tomorrow with mid to upper 90s and only a few late day storms. Many Sandhills locations could hit the century mark tomorrow.

A weakening frontal boundary will drop in here Friday and give us a little better chance of seeing some scattered showers and storms. Highs will back down into the low to mid 90s as well.

This weekend, I will mention the chance for a few storms Saturday with mid 90s for highs....then mainly dry Sunday with mid to possibly upper 90s.

A pattern change is in the offing next week. At this point, it looks like we have a chance at seeing some significantly cooler air by mid-week.....maybe 80s for highs?!?!

Tropics....

Our disturbance in the Caribbean Sea continues to struggle to organize. Thus far, it has been unable to do so. However, a lot of modeling continues to indicate development potential with this, and if anything can develop, it will likely wind up in the Gulf later this weekend.

>> Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Today marks the first full day of summer, and there will be no mistaking the seasons today. Highs will be in the mid 90s for most spots, and heat index values could exceed 100 degrees at times. Also, the air quality will be in the Code Orange category for the Charlotte, Triad, and Triangle zones today, so sensitive groups need to limit the amount of time spent outside.

A couple of storms made it out of the mountains yesterday into the foothills. Today, I think anywhere across the region is fair game to see a few afternoon storms fire. The storms will be few and far between, but the storms that do develop could pack a punch with some gusty winds and frequent lightning.

More of the same is on the way tomorrow and Thursday with mid to even some upper 90s for highs and a few PM storms.

A weakening frontal boundary will drop in here Friday into the weekend, and that will enhance the chance of scattered storms a bit and back our highs down just a bit into the low to mid 90s.

Tropics....

Nothing organized yet, but lots of rumblings in the Caribbean Sea. Odds seem to be increasing that something will pop in that region relatively soon.

>> Monday, June 21, 2010

Summer's official arrival occurs this morning at 7:28am. At that point, the sun will be directly over the Tropic of Cancer. That also means today features the longest duration of daylight of the year.

The weather has been under the impression that it has been summer for a while now, and the heat will march on this week. Lots of low to mid 90s today, then primarily mid 90s tomorrow through Thursday.Today looks dry around the Piedmont, but a few isolated late-day storms are possible tomorrow through Thursday. Better chances of some scattered storms look to arrive for Friday and the weekend.

Tropics...

All is quiet now, but there are some indications on modeling of something trying to spin up within the next 10 days. In fact, both the 0z European and 0z Canadian model today develop a system out of the Caribbean Sea and bring it as a hurricane to the central Gulf coast June 30. Nothing to be concerned about, but interesting to note....