Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Makhdoom Shahabuddin, who was Minister for Textiles in the outgoing
Cabinet headed by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, has reportedly been nominated by President Asif Ali Zardari
to be the new Prime Minister of Pakistan. Barring unlikely surprises, he is
expected to be elected to the vacant post by the National Assembly on June
22,2012.

2.On the instructions of Mr.Zardari, the Pakistan
People’s Party members and legislators have conducted themselves with dignified
anger and restraint in the wake of the controversial ruling of a three-member
bench headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry disqualifying Mr.Gilani
from holding office because of his earlier conviction for contempt of court. The
conviction was triggered off by his failure to carry out the directive of the
court to write to the Swiss Government for re-opening investigation into a case
in which allegations of money-laundering had been made against Mr.Zardari and
the late Benazir Bhutto.

3. The PPP has decided not to challenge the ruling
of the Supreme Court and to accept its verdict despite its serious reservations
over its validity. The Election Commission, apparently with the prior
concurrence of Mr.Zardari, promptly carried out the directive of the court to declare
Mr.Gilani disqualified to hold the post of the Prime Minister and to function as a member of the Parliament. Immediately
thereafter, Mr.Gilani vacated his official residence and shifted to the
Islamabad Club. The PPP has advised its cadres against holding any public
demonstrations on this issue.

4.”The Daily Times” of Lahore (June 21,2012) has
quoted an unnamed leader of the PPP as saying as follows :“We will protest over
this highly politicised and PPP-specific judgement, the way the democratic
forces should protest yet will desist from taking it to a point of no return
for the continuation of the current system and ensure a democratic transition.”

5.Now that the PPPhas decided to comply with the verdict against Mr.Gilani, the question
is whether the confrontation between the Executive and the Judiciary at the
institutional level and between Mr.Zardari and the Chief Justice at the
personal level will continue and, if so, in what form and with what
consequences.

6. While the analysts of the Pakistani political
scene have focussed on the institutional confrontation between the Executive
and the Judiciary, they have overlooked the personal confrontation between the
Chief Justice and Mr.Zardari, which has also played a role in the dogged
determination with which the two institutions have fought each other.

7. This personal confrontation had its roots in the
lack of enthusiasm of Mr.Zardari for the re-appointment of Iftikhar Muhammad
Chaudhry , who had been removed from office by Gen.Pervez Musharraf, as the
Chief Justice and the nullification of the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) of
Musharraf, which enabled Zardari and Benazir to return from political life and
resume their political activities, by the Chief Justice after re-assuming
office.. The nullification of the NRO created the danger of Mr.Zardari’s
election being questioned by the court at some stage. It was the NRO that
removed the disqualification against Zardari on the ground that he was facing a
criminal investigation.

8. The Chief Justice avoided creating the
impression of his being vindictive against Mr. Zardari because of the latter’s
dragging his feet over the question of his re-appointment. He kept the pressure
on Mr.Gilani, who was really carrying out the wishes of Mr.Zardari, and avoided
directly targeting Mr.Zardari by questioning the legality of his election once
the NRO was set aside.

9. The Chief Justice has hit out against Mr.Gilani
directly and Mr.Zardari indirectly by framing the verdict of the bench headed
by him as based on constitutional principles and not caused by personal petulance.
The constitutional principle that he has asserted is that in determining the
constitutionality of the actions of the Executive and the Parliament, the
interpretation of the Judiciary will be final. This is a judicial position that
nobody can question despite suspicions that exterior factors have influenced
the judgement.

10.From the acceptance of the verdict by the
Election Commission and the Government without delay, it is apparent that Mr.Zardari
and his advisers have decided to come to terms with the reality that in this case they are on a weak
wicket. The Government’s options have been reduced and it cannot hope to
prevail ultimately in any confrontation with the judiciary presided over by the
present Chief Justice on the question of asking the Swiss Government to re-open
the investigation into the pending allegations against Mr.Zardari.

11.Will the court now ask the new Prime Minister to
write to the Swiss Government? If so, will he do so? If he too refuses to do
so, the drama could be repeated---- with the danger of Mr.Zardari becoming the
directtarget on the ground that he was
unable or unwilling to make his Prime Minister comply with the directive of the
court.

12. These questions were posed by some journalists
to Barrister Aitzaz Ahsan, who representedMr.Gilani before the court. He has been quoted as replying as follows: “
A decision would be taken in this regard once the court directs the new Prime Minister
to do so.” His reply gives no clue as to what the new Prime Minister might do.

13. However, there are other indicators which
suggest that Mr.Zardari feels that the confrontation on this particular issue
should not be allowed to reach a point of no return. Such a confrontation could
be counter-productive. Among such indicators are the Government’sdecision not to appeal against the judgement
to a larger bench and to implement the verdict however unpalatable it might be.

14. The confrontation would most probably continue,
but not necessarily on the issue of a letter to the Swiss Government. The Chief
Justice, who was till now occupying the moral high ground, has been placed on
the defensive by serious allegations of his son Arsalan Iftikhar being the
beneficiary of a financial relationship with a businessman of questionable credentials.
Apparently realising that this case could be a mine-field , the Chief Justice has
sought to pre-empt any allegations of inaction by him by suggesting an enquiry
into the allegations against his son by the National Accountability Bureau.

15. This investigation could provide Mr.Zardari and
his advisers with an opportunity to keep up the campaign to have the Chief
Justice discredited. The confrontation will continue in other forms and other
arena, but to describe the recent judgement disqualifying Mr.Gilani as a
judicial coup would be overstating its significance and implications . ( 21-6-12)