Just For Fun

[Program Note:What follows is only a partial Friday Talking Points column. Due to struggling with my domain name server and internet service provider throughout Friday while the site was down, I didn't have time to write a full column. But I did manage to get through an abbreviated introduction, so I thought I'd format and post this today (our very first "Saturday Talking Points" column ever, I think). Hopefully all the problems are now fixed and this sort of thing won't be happening again any time soon. Thanks to everyone for their patience, and my apologies once again for the interruption in service.]

Nothing shows that irony is dead in Trump's White House more than Donald Trump making a tour of an Arizona factory this week while refusing to wear a mask -- since the site he visited was actually a mask factory. They even presented him with his very own mask as a souvenir of the visit, which Trump (of course) failed to put on. He later tried to claim that he was indeed wearing a mask "backstage," but that nobody saw him do so. This wasn't even remotely believable, though.

It has also been reported that very few White House personnel wear masks at work. And now the virus is apparently inside the building, as Trump's personal valet just tested positive as well as an aide to Mike Pence. No word yet on whether a more-widespread outbreak within the White House has developed yet, but it certainly shouldn't surprise anyone if this turns out to be the case. All while Trump is telling everyone to get out of their house and restart normal life once again, because as far as he's concerned the pandemic is now nothing to worry about. In his mind, it has already magically disappeared, so let's go shopping, everyone!

Trump's re-election chances now hinge on a lightning-fast economic recovery developing so he can campaign in October about how he brought the country back to life. If this goes south in any way, Trump likely doesn't stand a chance.

The depth of the problem is only now beginning to become apparent, as the official unemployment rate in April was revealed to be 14.7 percent. That is higher than at any time since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Unemployment topped out at only 10 percent during the Great Recession, but last month 20.5 million jobs disappeared, representing every job created since the Great Recession. But even these grim figures are actually incomplete:

The government data likely understates the damage, as the figures in the jobs report come from surveys conducted the second week in April. The nearly 33.5 million new unemployment claims filed over the past seven weeks suggest many more could be out of work, and the many self-employed workers and others newly eligible for unemployment benefits aren't included in that figure. Thirty-one states have updated their systems to start paying benefits to this group, but 21 of those states implemented the new program only in the last two weeks.

The number is also likely an underestimate of the true scope of unemployment because of the way the survey works. To be counted among the unemployed, a worker must be looking actively for work, something many people aren't doing because of the pandemic.

Large numbers of people also classified themselves as employed but absent from work, rather than unemployed on temporary layoff, artificially suppressing the unemployment rate by about five percentage points, said Ian Shepherdson chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The plunge in payrolls ought to have lifted the unemployment rate to almost 20 [percent], other things equal," he said.

The official unemployment rate also doesn't include 6.6 million workers who left the labor force, and 5 million more who were forced to cut their hours or work part time last month. And, as noted, they don't include any data from the last half of the month at all. What all of this means is that the next monthly unemployment numbers is likely to be a lot higher than even the jaw-dropping 14.7 percent just reported. During the Great Depression, the highest unemployment rate ever was recorded: 25.5 percent, in August of 1932. The numbers for the current month we're in (which won't be released until early June) could even approach that level.

According to Donald Trump, this is all going to be reversed, as the economy turns on a dime and then rockets right back up again. But he's almost alone in this rosy-tinted projection, since most economists are predicting that we're likely to see double-digit unemployment numbers through the end of next year. Which, obviously, goes well beyond this November's election.

Trump has attempted to steer the focus away from the actual pandemic to the yet-to-be-seen economic recovery. After his disastrous suggestion that we might want to consider injecting bleach or ultraviolet light was resoundingly ridiculed, the White House coronavirus task force has not been giving their daily briefings any more. Instead, Trump appears whenever it strikes his mood, mostly without Drs. Fauci and Birx behind him. This avoids embarrassing moments like the one last week when Dr. Birx called the decision to reopen too early "devastatingly worrisome." Trump also just admitted that one of the reasons he has refused to create a national testing program is that he knows that more testing would mean more cases were identified. He told reporters: "In a way, by doing all of this testing, we make ourselves look bad." Because, of course, no matter how bad things get, everything is still always about him.

The next obvious step for Trump is to attack the data itself, which should be coming some time in the next week or so. Trump and Trump sycophants are already attacking any modeling which doesn't show what they want it to. A few weeks ago, Trump confidently predicted that only 50,000 Americans would die from the pandemic. Then it was 60,000, then 65,000. This week Trump held a Fox News town hall in the Lincoln Memorial where he upped that number to anywhere from 75,000 to 100,000. Later, the University of Washington model (that has repeatedly been proven to be too optimistic, all throughout the crisis) upped its own prediction to 134,000 dead by August. Currently, over 1.3 million Americans have tested positive for COVID-19, and over 78,000 have died. We've plateaued at roughly 2,000 deaths per day, or about 14,000 per week. At this rate, we'll be at 100,000 deaths within about a week and a half.

The governor of Arizona -- right before Trump visited the state -- had a rather novel way of dealing with bad numbers coming out of the modeling:

Hours after Doug Ducey, the Republican governor of Arizona, accelerated plans to reopen businesses, saying the state was "headed in the right direction," his administration halted the work of a team of experts projecting it was on a different -- and much grimmer -- course.

On Monday night, the eve of President Trump's visit to the state, Ducey's health department shut down the work of academic experts predicting the peak of the state's coronavirus outbreak was still about two weeks away.

"We've been asked by Department leadership to 'pause' all current work on projections and modeling," Steven Bailey, the bureau chief for public health statistics at the Arizona Department of Health Services, wrote to the modeling team, composed of professionals from Arizona State University and the University of Arizona, according to email correspondence reviewed by The Washington Post.

The move to sideline academic experts in the middle of the pandemic reflects growing friction between plans to resume economic activity and the analysis of epidemiologists that underscores the dangers of rolling back restrictions.

. . .

But experts said Arizona's dismissal of academics, whose analysis seems at odds with the state's approach, marked an alarming turn against data-informed decision-making.

"The approach seems to be, 'Shoot the messenger -- and quick,'?" said Josiah D. Rich, an epidemiologist at Brown University.

The Arizona health department was pulling back "the special data sets which have been shared under this public health emergency effort," according to the Monday email from Bailey, which was first reported by an ABC affiliate in Phoenix.

The decision represented an abrupt turnaround from the state's request for expert input about six weeks ago, when Bailey vowed the modelers would have "full, unfettered access to confidential... data from the Department."

"This is a situation that is unprecedented in living memory, and it is going to become rapidly more dire in the coming days," he wrote in previously unreported correspondence. "I cannot, therefore, overemphasize the importance of what we are requesting here."

The move also troubled some federal lawmakers. "We can't just remove scientific data and bury facts when it contradicts an agenda or narrative," said Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.).

Other states are also getting just as creative in denying reality, it seems:

Florida state officials have blocked medical examiners from releasing coronavirus death totals after it was found that the examiners' death count was 10% higher than the state said it was.

So our guess is that Trump will soon willingly embrace the idea of actively interfering when data tells a very different story than the one he wants to tell. Because since Trump is right about everything, when the data shows he's wrong, it must be the data's fault. Trump, as always, is supremely confident that he's been doing the right thing all along:

Now the one thing that the pandemic has taught us is that I was right. You know, I had people say: "No, no, it's good. You keep -- you do this and that." Now those people are really agreeing with me. And that includes medicine and other things, you know.

Oh, OK. "Medicine and other things, you know." Well, we feel much better knowing that the president is more right than all the experts on "medicine and other things, you know."

Sigh.

In perhaps the most irony-defying moment of the week, while Trump was touring that Arizona mask factory (in this ever-changing world in which we live in), someone blasted out the song "Live And Let Die" over the P.A. system in the factory. As it turns out, Trump has indeed shown the country what (as he put in his own inaugural speech) "American carnage" really looks like.

Further Notes:

I realize that ends rather abruptly, and was woefully incomplete. So I thought I'd post a list of links as a "further reading" list, so you can see what else I was planning on commenting on in yesterday's column:

(11) -- Out of a total of 13 hours Trump spent speaking during his task force press briefings, he spent a full two hours attacking other people and 45 minutes praising himself -- but only four and a half minutes expressing condolences for the coronavirus victims

(12) -- Jared Kushner's vast incompetence [Part 1 -- Let's get some inexperienced volunteers to do all the work!]

I think this is the first time that I have ever commented on a Saturday Talking Points but, I was pretty much out of commission on Friday, anyway, so, all is good.

Trump's re-election chances now hinge on a lightning-fast economic recovery developing so he can campaign in October about how he brought the country back to life. If this goes south in any way, Trump likely doesn't stand a chance.

I hope that doesn't mean that the continued bashing of Biden's good name around here will have no effect on Trump's chances for re-election and that everything will be okay.

Why not stop doing it, to be on the safe side and, just try to assume that he didn't do it because, he didn't do it. If nothing else can be believed about me, then believe me that he didn't do it.

Another way to look at it is if you can't say anything good about America's premier statesman and all around decent and good guy, then, for God's sake, don't say anything at all!

I mean, even if YOU believe "the allegations" being made against him doesn't mean

I think Biden’s campaign should take a bunch of clips of Trump speaking in gibberish — just clip after clip of unintelligible ramblings — ending with Trump claiming to be the Chosen One, saying that maybe people could inject Lysol into their bodies, and finally him bragging about being a very stable genius. Then fade out with the caption:

Until now, the Republicans in Congress have stuck with Trump 'through thick and thin'. (Can someone enlighten me on whether impeachment, the emasculation of the Justice Department and the EPA, etc., are considered 'thick' or 'thin'?) It has taken a horrifying death toll to weaken Trump's poll numbers - and the United States is still in the early stages, so the casualty count will surely double or triple in the not-to-distant future.
Anyone want to wager on the date when Republicans up for reelection in November either 'retire' or publicly begin to break with Trump's idiocy? I predict by the end of May the rats (R) will begin to abandon ship, one way or another.
'The high death rate is having a negative effect on voters Trump's re-election campaign. A recent Morning Consult poll has found that his approval rating on the handling of the coronavirus is 10 points lower than the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, among those over 65.

Chris, I almost forgot to mention that I really appreciated the list of links at the end of the column. Perhaps you can add that as a feature to the FTPs, for those of us with the time and desire to learn more.

I wouldn't want to bet on the pandemic being over or even very controlled by the autumn, but if it is or if people are simply used to the situation, there will need to be strong reminders--uncaring and stupid statements alongside the body bags and actual people who were/will be ill (with their permission, of course). And as a contrast, Biden empathising, Biden involved in positive steps like ACA, and so on.

State and local politicians should do something similar. Did the governor say or imply that people are less important than profits? Did the senator or representative suggest that people stayed home because they were lazy, not because they were rightly worried? Did they use the pandemic as an excuse to drop employment or sickness rights? Did they profit from it? Make sure people don't forget.

Liz(2)-
I will stop bashing Biden's "good" name when he starts earning it.

But as long as he remains a tool of the big money interests I will keep bashing his BAD name.

On that there is no question. HE DID IT.

And he CONTINUES TO DO IT.

And no matter how bad Trump is Big money Biden will not do (comments 10,11).

A vote for Trump is a vote for more death.

A vote for Biden is a vote for a little bit less more death.

I propose we rename the comments section WeKILLtia.

But despite this all Biden has to do to earn my vote is show up now by rejecting the big money interests and committing to run a small donor only campaign in the general election instead of continuing to kill people.

That does not seem to me to be an unreasonable demand.

And it is not unreasonable to demand it rather than request it.

It is unreasonable to ignore it unless people dying for no valid reason is okay with you.

Stucki--ok, you've proved to us all that you're a misanthrope. So the next time your neck of the woods gets a bad forest fire, flood, or blizzard, the rest of us should just say 'It wasn't us, so it's just a scam, those people in Southeast Idaho don't matter.'

Are 8000 people dying every day in the us currently, say the last two weeks or is it much higher? Will this years numbers be greater once everything is counted? The general coronavirus numbers reported are people who tested positive for coronavirus, the actual deaths due to the virus are considered to be much higher. I'm sure there are a few that happened to contract the virus but died of a heart attack or other cause but I would guess that's a rounding error.

Don't like my stats? Instead of pontificating why don't you try and back your point up with some stats of your own. You know research, linking to them...

Now, with COVID, 8000 people die every day in the U.S., but we choose to blame most of them on COVID, at least partly for political reasons.

WE do not get to choose which deaths get counted as being related to the COVID virus, the virus determines that. The epidemic has seen cities’ EMT Services doubling the number of DOA’s in residences calls compared to past years — and despite the unexplained increase in numbers, the majority of these deaths will never get tested to determine if they died from the virus...thus NONE of those get counted! Unless the person tests positive before they die, or they are found to have the anti-bodies on the rare occasions that an autopsy is conducted, they do not make the count!

You think that there has been no increase in deaths, so then why have hospitals had to bring in refrigerator trucks to serve as their temporary morgues?

Have you bothered to read any first person accounts from healthcare personnel working through this epidemic?

And the ONLY thing “political” about the COVID deaths in this country is Trump and the Republican’s attempts to keep people from knowing just how many are occurring.

What really pisses me off is watching Trump and Friends trying to convince their base that everything is under control and that testing is not that important, yet Trump’s staff is tested daily! Sure, they don’t follow their own guidelines for avoiding the virus, but that is about to catch up to them! The President and VP should both be in quarantine right now... but are they?!?!

Hell no! They are out spreading the virus to as many donors and supporters as they can! Team Trump! Corruption never looked so stupid!

Out of a total of 13 hours Trump spent speaking during his task force press briefings, he spent a full two hours attacking other people and 45 minutes praising himself -- but only four and a half minutes expressing condolences for the coronavirus victims

And that was just in the first three weeks of April. If they look at his briefings since then, I can guarantee that two of those numbers have grown considerably ... but that last number is probably still ridiculously low!

I guess, probably, he's too radioactive for a place in the Biden or any administration but, I would surely love to see former FBI Director and deputy Attorney General James Comey as the next US Attorney General.

"Anyone want to wager on the date when Republicans up for reelection in November either 'retire' or publicly begin to break with Trump's idiocy? I predict by the end of May the rats (R) will begin to abandon ship, one way or another."

[20] Mezzomamma wrote:

"I wouldn't want to bet on the pandemic being over or even very controlled by the autumn, but if it is or if people are simply used to the situation, there will need to be strong reminders..."

We don't have to wait until September or October. What happens by June or July to Republicans, if states that are opening too rapidly and too soon now, like Texas, South Dakota, and Georgia, start seeing their hospital emergency rooms on the verge of collapse from being overwhelmed with Covid-19 cases in a fate that New York only just so recently and narrowly avoided??? What kind of 4th of July present to the American people at large would that be???

How many tourists does Idaho get in the Fall and Winter who come there to ski??? How many of them bring the Flu with them? How many do you think are going to bring Covid-19 with them this time INSTEAD???

John M [41]
I'm not quarrelling with you; it's all too likely that there will be a surge in cases over the summer in states that open too early and those that didn't take any protective measures.

But too many people have conveniently short memories, especially of others' suffering, and will be a ready audience for 'success' or 'a lot of fuss over nothing' messages if they don't see local cases come fall. Some of these are probably too hard-core to be shifted by any messages to the contrary, but others might be motivated by strong reminders to throw the people who mishandled the situation out of office.

I discovered yesterday that ID is not unique among the mountain states for having been skipped over by the virus. According to one of the Sun morn news shows, the same is true of MT and WY, where fewer than half of the counties have recorded even a single COVID case, and most of those counties that have reported a case are classifying it as "suspected"!

And, that tune is actually from their third studio album in 1979 entitled Armagedddon. They would break up within two years and attempt a reunion but for the untimely and tragic death of their opera-trained lead vocalist, Ron Tabak, in 1984.

Bloomberg just published an article on the number of deaths that have occurred during this outbreak.

From March 11 to May 2, there were a total of 32,107 deaths, 24,172 more that the city would have expected in that time based on past trends, according to a report from New York’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene that was published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While Covid-19 was explicitly tied to 18,879 of the excess deaths through confirmed or probable cases, there were 5,293 excess deaths that may have come from other causes.

The main obstacle to that will be the hard-core citizens that will only hold one of the two big money parties responsible when both are clearly responsible.

“Clearly responsible” for this epidemic? Please clarify how that could be true!

Yeah, every person who donated more than $200 to a candidate’s campaign should be charged with crimes against humanity for causing this epidemic! It is so strange...we donated a good bit more than that to our Congresswomen’s campaigns, yet neither one has called us asking us to tell them how we want them to respond to this or any other emergency! How can they do anything without first checking with their owners? It makes no sense!

Your idiotic definition for what constitutes “Big Money” aside, you are trying to blame Democrats for Trump’s failures in responding to this epidemic. Democrats created an office that focused on preparing for and responding to possible pandemic outbreaks, but Trump fired everyone and tossed out their guidelines for responding to an epidemic! So how was that the Democrats fault? How was that MY fault — since I am part of what’s wrong with our system according to you???

[Don is] trying to blame Democrats for Trump’s failures in responding to this epidemic. Democrats created an office that focused on preparing for and responding to possible pandemic outbreaks, but Trump fired everyone and tossed out their guidelines for responding to an epidemic!

I guess this is what can happen when someone becomes too obsessed with something that they develop a tunnel vision so strict as to ignore reality.

It's often described as a rock sandwich with the Vancouver Symphony Orchestra book-ending a rock tune. And, it's also known, affectionately, as the other Canadian national anthem. In any event, here's the meat of the sandwich … with rare 1979 video!

CW: They even presented him with his very own mask as a souvenir of the visit, which Trump (of course) failed to put on.

I haven't yet seen anybody state the obvious -- unless, of course, I missed seeing it -- but Donald's "complexion from a tube" isn't exactly amenable to having a mask rubbing all up and down on its oily orangeness.

He later tried to claim that he was indeed wearing a mask "backstage," but that nobody saw him do so.

He's a pathological liar.

So to recap: Trump can't wear a mask, it'll remove the orange mask he wears, and he's a repetitive lying liar.

Oops! Spoke too soon... correction follows: There are actually 7 out of 7 Public Health Districts in Idaho that are reporting COVID-19 cases and 33 counties out of 44. The county you live in has confirmed cases, and Idaho has reported ~70 deaths to date.

I posted a link for you to check and get yourself educated, but it appears it must have gotten itself caught in the filter.