CNN-IBN survey gives AIADMK the edge

Trinamool sweep seen in West Bengal; LDF placed marginally ahead in Kerala

A CNN-IBN-CSDS survey has projected an edge for the AIADMK-led alliance in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, while Headlines Today predicted a close race between the AIADMK and DMK-led combinations.

In West Bengal, according to CNN-IBN, the Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance is set to sweep the elections, while it will be a mixed verdict in other States.

In Kerala, the CNN-IBN survey says the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is placed marginally ahead, but the verdict is too close to call, while Headlines Today gave the Congress-led UDF a clear majority.

Assam is likely to give the Congress a third term in power, according to CNN-IBN, while it could be a hung verdict in the prediction made by Headlines Today.

According to an exit poll by research agency C-VOTER, the TMC alliance is set to win a mammoth victory in West Bengal, the AIADMK will get a good majority in Tamil Nadu, a hung verdict is predicted in Assam and a clear victory for the Congress in Kerala.

In the 294-member Assembly in West Bengal, the CNN-IBN survey gives the Trinamool alliance 222-234 seats.

It suggests that the Left Front government is heading for its worst-ever performance in three decades with the Front set to get only between 60 and 72 seats.

In the 2006 elections, the Trinamool Congress-Congress alliance had only 40 seats, while the Left parties had more than 230 seats.

Headlines Today has predicted 210-220 seats for the TMC alliance, while for the Left it gives 65 to 70 seats.

The C-VOTER survey gives the TMC alliance 227-235 seats, while for the Left Front it gives 48-56.

In the other Left-ruled State of Kerala, the CNN-IBN has given the CPI(M)-led front 69-77 seats in the 140-member Assembly, while the Congress-led UDF is likely to get 63-71 seats.

Headlines Today projects a clear majority for the UDF, with 85 to 92 seats and 45 to 52 for the LDF.

C-VOTER gives the UDF between 83 and 91 seats, and the LDF between 49 and 57 seats.

In Tamil Nadu, the CNN-IBN survey gives the AIADMK alliance a seat projection of 120-132 and for the DMK alliance between 102 and 114.

Headlines Today seesadvantage for DMK

The Headlines Today survey projects the DMK front to get between 115 and 130 seats, while for AIADMK alliance it is between 105 and 120 seats.

The C-VOTER survey gives the AIADMK alliance 168-176 seats and 54-62 seats for the DMK alliance.

In the last elections, the DMK alliance had 163 seats in the 234-member Assembly, while the AIADMK alliance had 69.

Gogoi set to return

Tarun Gogoi is set to return as Chief Minister in Assam in the CNN-IBN survey with a tally of 64 to 72 seats in the 126-member Assembly, an improvement over last elections by over 10 seats. Headlines Today puts the Congress tally in Assam at between 41 and 47, while AGP is projected to get between 31 and 35 seats. The BJP is expected to get 16 to 18 seats, while AUDF may get between 13 and 15 seats.

C-VOTER projects the Congress tally between 41 and 45, the Bodo Peoples Front between 7 and 11, the AUDF 11-15, the AGP 31-35 and the BJP 14-18.

In the last elections, the Congress had 53 seats, the AGP 24, the BJP 10, the AUDF 10 and the ASDC 10.