Still a tight supply of reasonably-priced Cape homes

September 1, 2017

We are seeing a continuation of several trends regarding the monthly supply of unsold homes currently listed for sale in the Cape Coral single-family home market through the first 7 months of 2017. The first ongoing trend is a seasonal effect, where the supply of unsold homes in the summer months is lower than it is in the winter months, when more sellers pile into the market trying to sell their homes during the peak winter tourist season. A second ongoing trend is that we are continuing to see a much tighter monthly supply of unsold homes in our "non-canal" property segment, where we are in a seller's market. This is versus having a much larger monthly supply of unsold homes in the typically higher-priced gulf and sailboat access canal home segments, which are in neutral markets, with both bordering on being in a buyer's market.

As we pointed out last week, the non-canal, or dry lot home segment, had an average median sales price of $203,006 per month so far this year, while the median sales price averaged $414,296 for gulf access and $433,207 for sailboat access canal homes, respectively. Since upwards of 79 percent of all single-family homes sold in the Cape are priced from the low $300,000's and under, the high demand in this price range tends to put downward pressure on the supply, while homes priced above this price range tend to take longer to sell because they have a smaller pool of available buyers.

The other bigger trend remaining in place and influencing our market is that there continues to be a very limited supply of "reasonably-priced," move-in ready homes listed for sale, versus a much larger supply of overpriced homes just sitting on the market. We are still seeing a lot of homes ultimately selling for 10 to 15 percent, or more, below their initial list price. The breakdown of the supply of unsold homes by different property segments are shown below.

In the overall Cape Coral single-family home market, the year-to-date average monthly supply of unsold homes currently listed for sale on the market, through July 31, was 6.43 months, which is 2.13 percent lower than the average of 6.57 months of supply over the first 7 months of last year. This current level of supply has the condition of our overall single-family home market placed firmly in a neutral market.

However, in the month of July, our overall single-family home market was in the high end of being in a seller's market, with a 5-month supply of unsold homes. This was the third consecutive month with a 5-month supply, and it was 37.5 percent lower than the average supply of 8 months from the first quarter of this year. This July was identical to July 2016, which also had a supply of 5 months, as the market is following the typical supply pattern in place since 2014, and in 11 of the last 12 years.

Gulf access canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family gulf access canal home segment, the year-to-date average monthly supply of unsold homes currently listed for sale on the market, through July 31, was 9.14 months, which was 14.66 percent lower than the average of 10.17 months of supply over the first 7 months of last year. Our current level of supply has the gulf access canal home market in the high end of a neutral market, bordering on being a buyer's market.

In July, the unsold supply of gulf access canal homes bumped up 14.3 percent to 8 months of supply, from 7 months in June, but it was 20 percent lower compared to the 10 months of supply from July of last year. The declines in supply are a positive development for sellers.

Sailboat access

canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family sailboat access canal home segment, the year-to-date average monthly supply of unsold homes currently for sale on the market, through July 31, was 9.43 months, which was 22.32 percent lower than the average of 12.14 months of supply over the first 7 months of last year. This current level of supply has the sailboat access canal home market in the high-end of a neutral market, bordering on being a buyer's market. It is, however, a substantial improvement over last year, when we were locked in a buyer's market in this property segment.

In July, the unsold supply of sailboat access canal homes was at 9 months, which was the same as in June, but it was 35.7 percent lower compared to the 14 months of supply from July of last year. This year-over-year drop in supply is also a positive development for sellers.

Freshwater canal homes

In the Cape Coral single-family freshwater canal home segment, the year-to-date average monthly supply of unsold homes currently for sale on the market, through July 31, was 7.43 months, which was 1.92 percent higher than the average of 7.29 months of supply over the first 7 months of last year. This current level of supply has the freshwater canal home market placed solidly in a neutral market, and much improved from the first two months of this year, when it briefly spiked up into a buyer's market with an average supply of 11 months.

In July, the unsold supply of freshwater canal homes was at 6 months, which was 20 percent higher than the 5 months of supply in both June of this year, and July 2016, respectively.

Dry lot homes

In the Cape Coral single-family dry lot (non-canal) home segment, the year-to-date average monthly supply of unsold homes currently for sale on the market, through July 31, was 5.14 months, which was identical to the level of supply over the first 7 months of last year. This marked the third straight year of this being the only segment of the Cape Coral single-family home market to be in a seller's market for the year, through the end of July.

In July, the unsold supply in the Cape Coral single-family dry lot home segment posted its third straight month with only 4 months of supply, indicating tighter market conditions for buyers looking for a dry lot home in a seller's market. The unsold supply was also at 4 months in July 2016. This segment of our market remains very competitive between buyers, especially with homes priced at $225,000 and under.

The July 2017, sales data for this article was obtained from the Florida RealtorsMultiple Listing Service Matrix for Lee County, Florida, as of Aug. 20, 2017, and it was compiled by Bob and Geri Quinn. It includes information specifically for Cape Coral single-family homes, not including condominiums, foreclosures or short sales. The data and statistics are believed to be reliable, however, they could be updated and revised periodically, and are subject to change without notice.The Quinns are a husband and wife real estate team with Century 21 Birchwood Realty Inc., in Cape Coral. They have lived in Cape Coral for over 37 years. Geri has been a full-time Realtor since 2005, and Bob, who also holds a Certified Financial Planner designation, joined with Geri as a full-time Realtor in 2014. Their real estate practice is mainly focused on Cape Coral residential property and vacant lots.