Author
Topic: Armchair GM 2017-2018 (Read 15158 times)

Sort of a follow up on the "how damaging was making the playoffs?" discussion on the GDT, and related to the issue of what to do with the expiring deals (Komarov, JvR, Bozak)....

I think the crucial elements, the core, are in place. The Leafs have got the 4 forwards, 3 defensemen (rather than one stud, alas), and starting goaltender they'll try to contend with. And, compared to the last time the team sniffed the playoffs, I'm pretty confident this core has a lot less wrong with it than that one. The Leafs' ultimate success will hinge on all sorts of stuff -- injuries, luck, etc. -- but, among them, something the management can control: good supporting players and depth.

So the biggest question I've got, from the armchair, is whether the NHL-ready prospects in the system -- let's call em Leivo, Kapanen, Soshnikov, and Johnsson -- can be serviceable, under-$3m/year options in the top-9 for the next 3 or 4 years. If they can be that, the team's good to go (i.e. start contending), even with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and maybe Gardiner set for big raises in the next few years. If they can't, the Leafs are probably looking at Option B: bring back one or more of the expiring UFAs or filling the hole on the UFA market -- in either case, devoting more dollars to the position than they'd otherwise have to. Option C, of course, is to be a top-heavy, middling team.

Making the playoffs last year and thinking they're close (or winning the draft lottery in '16 and going into win-now mode) has meant we're not getting the chance to see whether any of the RFAs can really excel in a NHL top-9 role. Separate from the asset-management issue of whether it'd be nice to have picks and prospects for JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, by keeping them in the line-up night in and night out to win now, the Leafs going into the crucial "how do you build a deep, talented roster in a cost-effective way with lots of cap committed to a core" phase blind...

Or maybe they're not, and what they're seeing in AHL games and at practice is sufficient for them to know that there are internal replacements for the expiring UFAs, and, even if they don't recoup assets on JvR & c., there's at least going to be cost-controlled top-9 players on the team going forward.

Still, as a fan, I'd like to see that for myself. Unfortunately, Babcock's win-now static lineup means, barring an injury, we won't be able to...

The armchair concern: I worry that the most likely outcome is a bad one -- to wit, either they get attached to/ worry they can't compete without some of the expiring UFAs and sign them to deals that'll make the team less competitive than it ought to be over the long term (option B above) or they end up surprised to find what's in the system can't quite hack it and scramble to fill roster holes, now without the assets they'd've got if they had moved JvR, Bozak, Komarov (option C).

All of which comes down to something folks around here have been saying for a while: (1) trade the soon-to-be UFAs yesterday, (2) see where you get with something like...

There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.

Logged

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.

Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly. Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.

Logged

"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.” - Khalil Gibran

Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly. Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.

It's things like this that make me question the value of those hero charts. Not that Murray has been outstanding or anything, but I just don't buy that he was outperformed by Polak in the real world. I'm all for analytics and all, but I feel like situations like this show the limitations of the current stats in terms of judging and comparing individual players.

Logged

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

It shows that they're pretty much both bad. I'll take a pass on him. If we wanted to bring Murray back next season he'd need a qualifying offer close to $3mil and you can find better value than that elsewhere.