BC Mile Sings 'O Canada'

by Jeremy Plonk

September 17, 2018

Saturday’s performance in the Woodbine Mile may have not have been Oscar-worthy, given the ease of the early pace, but Oscar Performance now heads to the Breeders’ Cup as a penciled-in factor in the Mile. That’s because the last 7 winners of Canada’s premier mile own a 7: 3-3-1 in our year-end championship event. Horses like Wise Dan, Court Vision and World Approval a year ago have swept the important pair of 8-furlong events.

It’s also notable that dispatched Woodbine Mile runners have rebounded with strong showings in the BC as well, so don’t sleep on those behind the winner. Pace-compromised players like Mr. Havercamp, Stormy Antarctic, Delta Prince and Divisidero could be part of the reconsiderations.

It’s been a remarkable run for the Woodbine Mile alumni during the current decade-plus, notably 10 of the last 11 BC Mile editions had at least one of its top-3 finishers via Woodbine. Keep in mind: North Americans overall have been gangbusters in this division of late despite a prevailing ‘wisdom’ that it’s all about the Europeans. The domestics have won 6 of the last 7 Breeders’ Cup Miles while they accounted for 15 of the 21 trifecta placings.

You’re not going to find a Breeders’ Cup prep in any division that’s had more recent influence on the main event. Here’s how the current decade’s Woodbine Mile influencers have fared at the BC.

2010: The Usual QT ran a close-up third at 22-1 odds in the BC Mile after chasing Court Vision second at Woodbine. The latter was fifth in the BC at 13-1.

2011: An all-Woodbine Mile exacta of Court Vision (64-1) and Turallure (11-1) provided a BC Mile exacta that paid nearly $1,000-to-1 when denying Goldikova her historic bid at a four-peat.

2012: The great Wise Dan scored his first of two Woodbine Mile-Breeders’ Cup Mile sweeps, scoring the championship event as the 9-5 favorite. He used Keeneland’s Shadwell Mile in-between.

2013: Not only did Wise Dan repeat his sweep of these two races, but Woodbine Mile runner-up Za Approval also came back to complete the same exacta at the Breeders’ Cup – at 18-1 odds behind the 4-5 odds-on Wise Dan.

2014: Sent away at 20-1 in the BC, Woodbine Mile winner Trade Storm outran expectations with a close-up third at Santa Anita. And also note that Woodbine Mile third-place finisher Bobby’s Kitten cut back in distance to win that year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at 7-1.

2015: Mondialiste was sent off at 17-1 in the BC Mile despite his Woodbine victory, and rewarded backers with a rallying, clear-cut second behind Tepin.

2016: The aforementioned Tepin took the Woodbine Mile path the following year in winning the Canadian showcase, but fell a half-length short when second to Tourist in her BC Mile defense. She used Keeneland’s First Lady Stakes in-between.

2017: Despite Tepin’s tail-off a year prior, trainer Mark Casse got it right this time with a Woodbine Mile-BC Mile sweep on the heels of 5-2 favorite World Approval. Not only did the WO Mile get back on the winning beam at the Breeders’ Cup, but it once again provided an exacta sweep with Lancaster Bomber (13-1), second in both events to World Approval.

In a division that sometimes becomes fraught with confusion and cliché, the clarity provided by the Woodbine Mile to the Breeders’ Cup Mile should not be under-utilized this fall.

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10.29.2018

Juvenile Turf Sprint
Morning line favorite Strike Silver closed from the clouds at Keeneland, but will have a tricky starting spot from the rail. Not only will he be first to load, but the field absolutely figures to take his spot. Jockey Julien Leparoux will have to carve out a trip. There’s a solid run to the only turn, so don’t discount wide draws at first blush.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
With Europeans in posts 2,3,4 it could be a bad neighborhood inside with their propensity for Breeders’ Cup gate issues, especially at this age. Those drawn widest must be best to overcome ground loss or drop-back closers. You’d really like your chances in the middle of this gate as it turns out.
Juvenile Fillies
Morning line chalk Bellafina will have to overcome post 10, widest draw of all. She’s a forward-placed sort with plenty of speed to her inside. It’s almost inevitable she’ll have to lose ground on the clubhouse turn or be hard-used to overcome and cross over. This race has been feast or famine over the years in terms of prices, and you may be feasting on a bigger number now.
Juvenile Turf
Current is poorly drawn in post 12 off a good Bourbon Stakes victory, and morning line favorite Anthony Van Dyck is even farther out in 14. This is a race with a 4-1 morning line chalk and probably got even more crazy post-draw. Uncle Benny drew really nicely in post 2 and will save ground before launching his move.
Juvenile
Speedball Knicks Go in post 10 outside of Game Winner (No. 9) is very interesting. Complexity is the other key prep wire-to-wire winner of note, so the post 6 for that one puts the 8-5 morning line chalk Game Winner potentially between horses if he doesn’t relax. Code Of Honor from post 11 figures to drop back and save ground with his late run, while 14-Signalman may drop a bit farther back early because of the draw and come with his rally.
Filly & Mare Sprint
Morning line favorite Marley’s Freedom (8-5) drew nicely in post 13 with an eternity to the first and only turn going 7 furlongs. There are no major advantages or disadvantages at this trip.
Turf Sprint
Posts 3-4-5 are my preferred draws in turf sprints at this kind of configuration, so that’s good news for Hembree, Vision Perfect and 7-2 morning line favorite Disco Partner. Conquest Tsunami drew the 14-hole and looks fastest of all from the gate. He’ll need to be to clear and conquer. He seems to have drawn a break with Pay Any Price not going into the final lineup in terms of early heat.
Dirt Mile
Probably the race where post means the least, the run to the only turn is forever, and the run until the chute meets the track proper is long enough that the inside doesn’t feel any push down. The outside draw for 8-5 morning line favorite Catalina Cruiser offers more benefits than negatives. Principal challenger City of Light drew the rail and has plenty of natural speed to make good of that.
Filly & Mare Turf
Around 3 turns with a short run to the first bend, outside horses can give some ground here. The Europeans are harpooned in 13 and 14, while 3-1 morning line favorite Sistercharlie drew well in post 6 among a quintet for Chad Brown. If you can identify some inside speed in this race, you could do well and perhaps outrun the odds.
Sprint
Promises Fulfilled goes full throttle from the 2-hole. It’s a great draw in 5 for Imperial Hint, the 9-5 morning line favorite. He’ll be outside the principle speed threat. Defending champ Roy H draws widest in the 9-hole and likely will come 3-wide or so on the turn. Whitmore down on the rail will have to navigate some late, but they should leave him early. He’ll just need a path and fortunate only 9 have entered.
Mile
A full field of 14 is signed on, but don’t be afraid of the outside draws. They tend to do far better historically than you’d think. Giving away ground for traffic isn’t a bad deal here. From 11-out you have quality Europeans and Chad Brown’s 3YO Analyze It. Post 5 for Oscar Performance looks to be a good spot for a potential lone speed situation. 4-Polydream, the 5-1 lukewarm morning line favorite, drew very well.
Distaff
In a match-up of the last 2 Kentucky Oaks winners, Monomoy Girl drew post 11 as the 2-1 morning line choice, while Abel Tasman will start from the 2-hole. You can expect Abel Tasman to come out firing from an inner-draw and be the aggressor in a field without much early pace. Baffert also has Vale Dori in post 8 who can keep tabs on Monomoy Girl, if you will. Calvin Borel starts on the rail at Churchill with Champagne Problems if you’re price shopping.
Turf
The baker’s dozen in the Turf goes around 3 turns, but with a bit more run into the first turn than the F&M Turf. Still, it doesn’t hurt to save some ground here. Even-money favorite Enable got post 2, and there’s zero complaint there. Defending champion Talismanic found the rail in hopes of re-awakening form. Waldgiest, whom many consider the big European threat to Enable, drew poorly in the 12-hole.
Classic
There are no major plusses or minuses in just the draw for 1-1/4 miles and a field of 14. Bob Baffert’s pair of McKinzie (6) and West Coast (7) have nothing inside of them to worry about early, but will have Mendelssohn potentially breathing some fire from post 9. If I had to pick a winner here, it would be Mendelssohn…if he shows up at Churchill Downs. Morning line favorite at 5-2, Accelerate starts in post 14 and it’s not a big deal given his running style and eternal run to the clubhouse turn.
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10.2.2017

With the Breeders’ Cup almost exactly one month away on November 3-4 at Del Mar, it’s time to take the temperature of the 13 divisions.
JUVENILE TURF
Seabhac likely staked claim to American favoritism with Saturday’s Pilgrim win in sharp style for Todd Pletcher. Meanwhile, Kentucky Downs Juvenile winner Snapper Sinclair already is boarded on the west coast for Steve Asmussen. Archaggelos’ win Sunday in the Grey at Woodbine for Michael Dickinson intrigues via the Tapeta. He had scored on the turf at Laurel prior. Untamed Domain had shipped north for Graham Motion to win Woodbine’s Summer on turf as well. Sunday’s Bourbon at Keeneland adds depth (including Arawak), and the Europeans, of course, will merit a deeper dive.
DIRT MILE
Awesome Slew scored the Ack Ack nicely on Saturday at Churchill Downs and could stretch around 2 turns, though he’s obviously a very good closing sprinter/miler. Oklahoma Derby 1-2 finishers Untrapped and Battle of Midway make some sense here, as does Pacific Classic third Accelerate. Don’t be surprised if Cupid turns back to this trip after tiring in the Awesome Again, given the Baffert stable’s loaded Classic hand, though fellow barnmate Mor Spirit could wind up the favorite here if he’s ready to go. Practical Joke, winner of the Jerkens at Saratoga, would be interesting here or the Sprint.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
Significant Form can continue a Chad Brown pipeline from the Miss Grillo Stakes winner’s circle to the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Best Performance and Orbulation have earned the right of a re-match for Clement and Pletcher, respectively. Capta Temptress made her North American debut a success in Woodbine’s Natalma when beating a ballyhooed Wonder Gadot. The G3 Jessamine at Keeneland a week from Wednesday typically introduces a player or two. The Euros have had less success here than the Juvenile Turf for whatever reason, but are sure to be represented.
DISTAFF
Stellar Wind hopes the third time’s the Distaff charm after finishing second and fourth here in previous attempts. She’s been perfect in 3 starts this year and training up to the race since the July 30 Clement Hirsch at Del Mar. Clearly, the duo of Forever Unbridled and Elate have risen to the cream of the crop east of the Mississippi this year. They will join sophomore west coasters Abel Tasman, It Tiz Well and Paradise Woods in a pretty deep division.
TURF SPRINT
Lady Aurelia has taken the world by storm and rates one of the most exciting prospects seen in this specialists’ race’s history for Wesley Ward. Mr. Roary upset Om in the Eddie D last week on the cut-back at Santa Anita and would need to cut back another furlong and a half at Del Mar. Veterans Hogy and past Turf Sprint champ Mongolian Saturday do battle Saturday in the Woodford at Keeneland. Green Mask had enjoyed quite a campaign before being injured and retired in mid-September.
SPRINT
Defending champion Drefong has completed exactly 1 race since last year’s BC Sprint title, but his Forego victory at Saratoga likely makes him the horse to beat again. New York’s follow-up Saturday in the tradition-rich Vosburgh gave Takaful a launching pad. Mind Your Biscuits needs a bounce-back but is capable, as is Whitmore, who goes in Friday’s Phoenix at Keeneland vs. Limousine Liberal, Favorite Tale et al. Meanwhile, Saturday’s Santa Anita Sprint Championship figures to be the final prep for Roy H.
JUVENILE
Bolt d’Oro left no doubt who the Juvenile favorite will be after Saturday’s stroll in the 2-turn FrontRunner. He also won the Del Mar Futurity sprinting. With the Hopeful champ Sporting Chance sidelined, the East and Midwest are looking for leadership in Saturday’s Breeders Futurity at Keeneland and Saturday’s Champagne at Belmont. As of today, this truly looks like an “If not Bolt d’Oro, then whom?” division.
JUVENILE FILLIES
Moonshine Memories’ victories in the Del Mar Debutante, over the host track, and Chandelier, over the JF distance, make her a solid headliner. Figure to see Chandelier pursuers Alluring Star and Piedi Bianchi back for local connections Baffert and O’Neill. Friday’s Alcibiades at Keeneland and Sunday’s Frizette at Belmont will shed much more light on the regional challengers. Many are intrigued to see Canterbury rising star Amy’s Challenge and what she might provide in the Alcibiades, while Lady Ivanka seeks a third win without defeat in the Frizette.
FILLY & MARE TURF
Everyone’s favorite, Lady Eli, makes this a must-see division as she looks for a second BC crown and to avenge a narrow defeat last year. Miss Temple City is among Keeneland’s Saturday headliners in the First Lady. Avenge made her case over the weekend at Santa Anita in the Yellow Ribbon. No doubt Chad Brown will load the gate with support for Lady Eli, including Beverly D 1-3 finishers Dacita and Grand Jete. And, Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle presence in this division could come from several points. He’s got Rain Goddess and Rhododendron already aimed at Keeneland on Saturday. Belmont’s Flower Bowl on Saturday also bears watching historically.
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
All eyes this Saturday will be on the LA Woman Stakes at Santa Anita and the long-awaited return of Unique Bella, out since March. She could cement herself a big favorite for the FMS with a bang-up performance. Defending champ Finest City remains in questionable status given her time away and the eastern contingent has traded punches. Keeneland’s TCA Stakes on Saturday has been a big historical barometer for this division, but appears missing a Groupie Doll or Informed Decision-type on paper.
MILE
World Approval has gotten very good in recent starts and his Woodbine Mile score comes in a very key prep in this division. The Americans have done far better here in recent years than most presume, so a review of the Mile charts wouldn’t hurt you before diving into the PPs. We’ll know more after Saturday’s Shadwell Mile at Keeneland, where Heart to Heart, Mondialiste and Lancaster Bomber are expected. As for the Europeans, what will move forward from Champions Day on Oct. 21 at Ascot, and might they be over the top at that?
TURF
Beach Patrol has had a pretty historic run by domestic turf standards in winning the Arlington Million and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in succession. Highland Reel already has been here, won that, in terms of the Breeders’ Cup Turf and figures a major player from Europe again. Arc third Ulysses would be a major threat for John Gosden. Itsinthepost appears best in the west. But we’ve seen this many times before where it’s the “other” Euro to fear, so tab the depth of the invaders whose praises are not sung loudest.
CLASSIC
Can Gun Runner shoot down all of Bob Baffert’s SWAT team? That’s the question as the Foster, Whitney & Woodward winner takes aim at defending champion, Pegasus World Cup and Dubai World Cup winner Arrogate – along with his band of Baffert brothers including Pacific Classic winner Collected, Travers victor West Coast and Awesome Again winner Mubtaahij. This does not have the feel of a 12 or 14-horse Classic, but rather a major test just to light the board for all others, even with Belmont’s Jockey Club Gold Cup still to be run Saturday.