Nilsson, Lars-Göran

Abstract [en]

Realistic confidence judgments are essential to everyday functioning, but few studies have addressed the issue of age differences in overconfidence. Therefore, the authors examined this issue with probability judgment and intuitive confidence intervals in a sample of 122 healthy adults (ages: 35-40, 55-60, 70-75 years). In line with predictions based on the naïve sampling model (P. Juslin, A. Winman, & P. Hansson, 2007), substantial format dependence was observed, with extreme overconfidence when confidence was expressed as an intuitive confidence interval but not when confidence was expressed as a probability judgment. Moreover, an age-related increase in overconfidence was selectively observed when confidence was expressed as intuitive confidence intervals. Structural equation modeling indicated that the age-related increases in overconfidence were mediated by a general cognitive ability factor that may reflect executive processes. Finally, the results indicated that part of the negative influence of increased age on general ability may be compensated for by an age-related increase in domain-relevant knowledge.

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The Betula Study is funded by the Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation (Grants 1988-0082:17 and J2001-0682), the Swedish Council for Planning and Coordination of Research (Grants D1988-0092, D1989-0115, D1990-0074, D1991-0258, D1992-0143, D1997-0756, D1997-1841, D1999-0739, and B1999-474), the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences (Grant F377/1988-2000), the Swedish Council for Social Research (Grants 1988-1990: 88-0082 and 311/1991-2000), and the Swedish Research Council (Grants 345-2003-3883 and 315-2004-6977).Available from: 2008-11-20 Created: 2008-11-20 Last updated: 2011-01-10Bibliographically approved