10 a.m. UPDATE: Dolly remains a 50-mph storm at this time, and as suggested below, the official track forecast has been nudged northward to Brownsville.

Further adjustments northward are possible later today, but the city of Houston (and points northward) now appears almost entirely safe.

The hurricane center now is slightly more bullish on Dolly’s intensification over the Western Gulf of Mexico, predicting a maximum strength of 90 mph, up from 80 mph early this morning. The computer models for intensification, which are less reliable than those used for tracks, generally suggest a less intense hurricane.

However, as the forecasters note in their discussion, Dolly will soon pass over 84-degree waters and a deeper pool of warmer water. Thus, there’s potential for Dolly to greatly exceed the computer model forecast for intensity. Given the development of Hurricane Humberto last year, I can understand why the forecasters are being cautious about not understating the potential for Dolly’s intensification.

I’ll be back early this afternoon to look at the results of the computer models currently being run, which should provide a better idea of where the storm will come ashore. With luck it will land at the King Ranch.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: The center of Tropical Storm Dolly appears to have jogged northward over night in the process of reforming, and that means two things: 1) the threat to Southern Texas has gone up since yesterday, and 2) as the storm should now spend less time over the Yucatan Peninsula it will weaken less during this brief encounter with land.

I’ll now discuss in more detail.

First of all, the latest runs of the major computer models reflect a slight northward shift in the storm’s projected path, and it’s possible this trend could continue as Dolly establishes a new center of circulation.

W. Underground

Presently, a ridge of high pressure to Dolly’s north is preventing the system from making a northward turn, but this high pressure is forecast to weaken by mid-week. The high pressure system’s placement later this week is the key to understanding where Dolly will go, and the forecasts vary widely.

At this point, areas from Victoria to northern Mexico appear at the highest risk, but all of Texas should keep an eye on a system that could reach the Texas coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

And how strong would such a system be?

Unfortunately, we cannot rule out rapid intensification of Dolly, which presently has 50 mph winds, once the storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico. This is not only because of the warm water, but also because of favorable atmospheric conditions.

Here’s one troubling scenario: The placement of a weakening upper level low pressure system to Dolly’s west (which until now had been shearing Dolly), another one to its east over the central Caribbean, and the high pressure system to the north could all now amplify the storm’s intensification.

The official forecast still calls for an 85 mph hurricane, but my guess is that this will be raised during the next update to reflect Dolly’s northward jog.

In any case, Texas may well be struck by a goodly sized hurricane later this week. Houston, though an unlikely target, is not yet out of the woods.

We are heading to South Padre on a scheduled vacation. Will it be safe to go in by Wednesday evening?

Flying or driving?

The tail of the storm should be moving through at that time, and I suspect the island will be closed off until Thursday. Can’t say definitively but if you can postpone the trip for a day I would seriously consider it.