Thursday, February 27, 2014

The election commission is ready to declare the schedule of
General Elections 2014. Political parties are busy in building alliances. It’s
the coalition politics era in India.

The main stream parties; Congress and BJP are still dilly
dallying with the political formations they should push to occupy Raisina
Hills.

There are many ‘If’s and ‘But’s in the scene and poll
pundits are obscured with the resurrection of the strategies of AAP by
resigning from the Delhi Government.

It is for sure that
the new Government formation is not going to be an easy task for any of political
parties as most pollsters predict a very fractured mandate this year.

Every party is willing to buy the coalition government at
the centre and it offers number of opportunities even for smaller parties when
the fight is so close and exciting.

Both UPA and NDA are still scouting for their partners and
allies. For UPA, anti-incumbency is at
the peak riding on policy paralysis and corruption. Every party is sure of
the role of communal equations and the
importance of pleasing communal forces, though for most of them, BJP is the
only political party with the communal tag. So as usual or rather as the pre-election ritual, talks for
third front have started.

Most of the parties supporting the Third front are opponents
at the State level. Power hungry politicians in the name of ‘keeping away the
dynasties and communal parties from the power’ started hob nobbling each other.
Many foresee a hung parliament and the opportunities
for the third front.

The past experiences encourage the regional parties and Netas to eye for PM chair as they expect
support from Congress outside to keep the Communal forces away from the power.

Rumor in the town is that some of the regional parties may seek
BJP support in case if NDA does not get majority on their own. They say BJP
does not mind supporting a formation from outside to keep the corrupt politicians
and dynasty from the corridors of the power.

These two scenarios augurs well for the regional parties to
dream high about their prospects in the post-election times. They are not
bothered about the Common Minimum Program or Stability of th Government, for
that matter.

In this situation, one may wonder who would be leaders who
bet for the Prime Minister post. There is no dearth for the regional leaders
who aspire for the post of PM. As of now, there are six national parties and
fifty odd state and regional parties. Both Mayawati and Sharad Pawar are in the
list of National Parties. The Communist parties are fighting to save their
recognition as national parties this time. Unlike in the past, election results
may cajole a regional party leader to the PM post.

Mayawati may be ruled out for her lack the support from her
own State and not so rosy electoral outcome forecasted. Pawar has always shown
interest in PM post in the past. But it depends on how many seats NCP is going
to win and how many of the alliance partners will be ready to support him. In a
major coup, he can be the PM supported by Congress from outside and a coalition
Government comprising all the secular and socialist forces!

If not Pawar and Mayawati, the leader of any Third front
Government will be from a regional outfit even though some of them have played
a major role in coalition governments at the national level in the last one
decade. But the question is if Nitish or Mamata or Jayalalitha are elevated to
the PM post, what would be the approach of the bureaucracy and citizens to
them? All these leaders are identified with the local and regional politics
(even though they are known at the national level) and for their whimsical
ideas for their regional pride and collusions to extend their careers by the
art of making.

Hue and cry about
regional parties benefiting their regions and do not approve of national plans
will be outspoken in Prime Ministership itself.

Wouldn’t it be a different narrative for the political dynamics
and decentralization in this country? Will PM heed for more voices at the
regional level or would become a votary of decentralization? Would PM become
more accommodative and considerate to the demands of the other regional
parties? Would it change the Centre-State relationship as PM has already
experienced at the State level? Will it change the nomenclature of the
recommendations of Finance Commissions? Dear
14th PM (whoever it is) of India, we are as excited and
hopeful as you about the General Elections, 2014.