What I say unto you I say unto all, watch. Mark 13:37

November 06, 2013

Islamist Super-Bloc Begins Forming in the Middle East

A monumental strategic shift is taking place in the Middle East as an
Islamist super-bloc is forming. Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood are
making up with Iran and Hezbollah. Egypt and the Gulf states are forming
their own alliance. The U.S. outreach to Iran and the Brotherhood has left
it missing from the equation.

The Syrian civil war has pitted the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey
against Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and the Syrian regime since 2011. Now, with
a bloody stalemate resulting in consequences each side fears, the two
sides are looking for ways to make amends.

Turkey has been trying to move its relationship with Iran past the
ancient Ottoman-Persian rivalry for years. The Erdogan government
gave secret U.S. intelligence to Iran and in early 2012, informed Iran
about ten of its nationals meeting with Israeli intelligence inside
Turkey.

One of the architects of the Turkish-Iranian relationship is Turkish
intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, who the Israeli Defense Minister
described as a “friend of Iran.” Some Israeli officials privately refer
to him as the “station chief in Ankara” for Iranian intelligence.

These statements about Fidan’s role is not hype. The recent U.S.
ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, James Jeffrey, put
it this way: “Hakan Fidan is the face of the new Middle East.”

Until recently, the bitter civil war in Syria blunted Fidan’s
aspirations. Turkey’s ideological ally, the Muslim Brotherhood, is trying
to overthrow Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, Iran’s most valuable ally. But
now both sides are exhausted. The war is costly, bloody and no one is
gaining anything by its continuance.

Turkey sees Al-Qaeda affiliates taking control of the Syrian rebel
cause and Kurdish militias gaining control near the border. The cost of
overthrowing Assad would be exorbitant. Al-Qaeda and the Kurds would be
even stronger and sectarian warfare will exasperate the refugee crisis.

Assad’s Iranian and Russians backers want him (or at least his regime)
to remain in power for strategic reasons, but both have to realize that
his forces are overstretched and cannot hope to reclaim the entirety of
the country.

High-level Turkish and Iranian officials are meeting with
the expressed purpose of ending the sectarian conflict. An unnamed senior
Turkey official told Reuters, “Both Iran and Turkey are at a point where
they think they can work together on Syria.”

Turkey has
become the “regional hub for the Muslim Brotherhood’s international
organization.” It also hosts a Hamas
command post. If Turkey is reaching out to Iran, it must be
assumed that the Brotherhood is doing the same.

In late September, it was revealed that
the Muslim Brotherhood is trying to unite Islamists into an international
“Islamic Council.” At the same time, representatives from Iran, Hamas and
Hezbollah were meeting and agreed to form an “axis
of resistance.”

Hamas has been in a dire
financial crisis since losing Iran’s support and its stress is only
going to increase as the Egyptian government continues to shutdown Hamas’
smuggling tunnels on the Sinai-Gaza border. The Iranians and Hezbollah are
spending a ton of resources to save Assad from the Brotherhood-supported
rebels. Both sides have major incentives to reach a settlement.

Economics and resources also play a role in the Turkish-Iranian
relationship. Their trade is due
to reach $30 billion by 2015. Iran wants Turkey to replace the
pro-West United Arab Emirates as a re-exporting center, and Turkey wants
to be a bigger customer for Iranian natural gas.

A major breakthrough happened when Hamas Deputy Politburo Chief Moussa
Abu Marzook publicly
criticized another Hamas leader, Khaled Mashaal, for supporting the
Syrian rebels. Marzook emphasized that Hamas has no official relationship
with the rebels.

Hamas leaders began calling for renewed
violence against Israel, Mashaal showed up in Turkey and a planned
trip to Iran was reported. It was subsequently reported that
Iran postponed the visit, but there have been secret high-level visits
from other Hamas officials recently.

Another important player is the U.S. “ally” Qatar. It is firmly in the
camp of Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Qatari Emir is
making overtures to the new President of Iran.

Saudi Arabia is leading a third bloc that opposes Iran and the
Muslim Brotherhood. The United Arab Emirates has loudly
lobbied for such a coalition. Other members include Egypt, Jordan,
Bahrain, Kuwait, Yemen and Oman. The North African countries of Libya,
Morocco and Algeria are likely participants, as is Tunisia once the
Brotherhood’s ousting there is completed.

This is the bloc that is the least hostile to U.S. interests and
Israel. It’s been long
reported that these countries privately welcome an Israeli strike on
Iran’s nuclear program. Their officials are holding
secret meetings in Israel.

Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia is a Sharia-based Salafist state
that cannot be expected to support Muslim moderates with a
diametrically-opposed vision. The Saudis are supporting so-called
“moderate” Salafists in Syria to compete with Al-Qaeda.

A rebel commandersaysthat
“Saudi tribal figures have been making calls on behalf of Saudi
intelligence” and spreading money around to buy loyalty.

Approximately 50 rebel groups near Damascus announced they were uniting
into the “Army of Islam” and would fight for a country solely based onSharia.
It is suspected that the Saudis engineered this in order to steer the
rebel cause.

There may be a difference of opinion within this bloc regarding Syria.
Egypt has not taken a clear stance. It isn’t adding its voice to the
Saudis’ loud demands that Assad step down, but it isn’t dissenting either.

Where does the U.S. fit into all this? Nowhere.

The U.S. support for the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has alienated the
majority of Egyptians. After the Obama Administration
suspendeda significant amount of military aid, the
Egyptian governmentembracedRussia
as an alternative.

The U.S. outreach to Iran and minimal support for the Syrian rebels has
caused Saudi officials to talk of a “major
shift” away from America. Secretary of State John Kerrytried
to soothethe Saudis with a visit and a joint statement
reiterating that Assad must be removed from power.

If the Turkey-led Sunni Islamists and the Iran-led Shiite Islamists
divide Syria and agree to a ceasefire, a formidable cross-sectarian
Islamist bloc will form. The Saudis, Egyptians and other Gulf states
already see the U.S. as an unreliable partner and are looking to Russia
and China for help.

This is the consequence of the ill-conceived American policy in the
region. †