Apr. 8, 2013

Chart by Thomas Pedroni using data from Detroit Public Schools.

Written by

Thomas C. Pedroni

Chart by Thomas Pedroni using information from the Michigan Department of Education.

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If we were to construct a report card for the emergency management of the Detroit Public Schools since it began in 2009, what would it include?

We’d want to consider academics, of course. And we’d want to consider the financial performance of the district under emergency management. After all, the original EM, Robert Bobb, was appointed as an emergency financial manager with the explicit task of righting the DPS fiscal ship.

Presumably, we’d want to set the bar pretty high. Democracy and local control are highly valued in the United States. Abolishing them, even if temporarily, would be expected to lead to significant payoffs for our children and our communities.

Now that we’ve passed the fourth anniversary of emergency management, let’s assess what emergency management has done for us.

The proficiency gap between DPS and schools across the rest of state has actually increased since emergency management came to Detroit in 2009. The picture that the numbers paint is particularly bleak when the 15 schools handed to the Education Achievement System just before the fall MEAP are factored in. They show that Detroit’s third- through eighth-graders continue to lose ground in reading and math proficiency in most categories.

The hardest hit have been our youngest test-takers — those who have spent most of their school years under emergency management — our third-, fourth-, and fifth-graders. Although Detroit students scored among the worst in the nation in 2009, Detroit’s third-graders have since fallen 5.3 percentage points farther behind the state average in reading proficiency. In math, they have fallen another 5.1 percentage points below the state average.

Our fourth-graders are now 2.9 percentage points farther behind the state average in reading proficiency, and 6.2 percentage points in math. Fifth-grade students have closed the achievement gap by 1 percentage point in reading (and are now only 27.5 percentage points behind their state peers), but have fallen 6.8 percentage points further behind in math.

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In sixth- through eighth-grade reading, the proficiency gaps increased by 0.6 points, 1.8 points, and 0.5 points respectively; progress was made in math — by 0.2, 2.8, and 0.5 points respectively.

Losing even more ground to the state average, as has happened under emergency management since 2009, is simply unconscionable.

Decreases in the “competitiveness” of DPS students relative to their state peers would presumably lead to a poor score in the most important category — academics — on the emergency management report card.

But what about the financial side? This is where the skill set of our current emergency manager — a veteran of the auto industry — would presumably have the most impact.

And anyone who watched the recent NBC Education Nation Detroit Summit would have heard the good news right from the source. Emergency Manager Roy Roberts proclaimed that he had quickly shaved $250 million off of the $327-million legacy deficit he inherited.

Roberts didn’t mention that the deficit reduction was largely accomplished by selling new long-term bonds. And he didn’t mention that, according to the district’s annual financial reports, Bobb had come in as emergency financial manager to reduce a $218-million operating deficit but instead increased it to $327 million.

Debt service now carves out about $1,021 of the $8,600 allocated for each student. As enrollment declines, a smaller number of students will carry an increasing debt load. A greater capture of the per-pupil allocation will further bleed the schools, making DPS a less and less desirable choice.

In such a dismal financial environment, the reaction of a district’s financial leader should be to ensure that the greatest possible portion of the remaining per-pupil allocation lands directly in the classroom. And Roberts pledged in his first budget that 90% of spending would be driven to the classroom by cutting out every bit of administrative fat he could find. Admirable.

So how has Roberts, who castigated the old DPS board for driving only 55% of resources to the classroom, done with his spending? The district’s fiscal 2012 report shows that in Roberts’ first year, he allocated 49.1% to classroom instruction. And this year? Roberts’ amended budget projects only 46.7% directly to the classroom.

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So our emergency managers haven’t made meaningful progress in either our academics or our finances. But maybe it’s time to put the past behind us and move forward. In fact, in the coming days, the district is again expected to announce projected savings through more school closings — including 15 during the next year alone.

You might think it makes financial sense to close school buildings that are only partially filled — unless you listen to the financial calculations of DPS contractor Shannon Bingham of Western Demographics.

Closing a typical school building running well below capacity with only 300 students saves a district roughly $700,000 in annual operating costs. According to Bingham, who facilitated a DPS strategizing session I attended last month, 20% of those 300 students will leave the district instead of consolidating into the spaces in other schools that the district has allocated to them. That’s 60 students. Bingham estimates the per-pupil dollars attached to each student is around $8,600. Losing 60 students at that rate totals $516,000 in lost per-pupil annual revenue. The actual annual savings is only about $186,000 per building. Quite likely, given the estimates of other experts, each school closing is costing the district more than it saves.

These figures should call into question the district’s projections that the average annual cost savings of the 28 schools it anticipates closing during the next three years will be just under $500,000 per school. If the $500,000 isn’t realized, what will be the impact on the DPS financial picture that the emergency manager premises on those savings?

It’s your turn. What grade do you give emergency management after four years in Detroit?