The US Elections: Trump, Hillary & India

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 9 | Author: Amit Gupta | July 2016

To cite: Amit Gupta. The US Elections: Trump, Hillary & India. NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 9. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, September 2016, available at

There is global interest in the 2016 US elections because of the candidacy of Donald Trump. If one leaves aside the outrageous and distasteful statements of Mr. Trump there are some ideas that he has put forward that are quite revolutionary from an American foreign policy perspective. Similarly, Hillary Clinton, thanks to the Bernie Sanders candidacy, has been moved significantly to the left in the context of her foreign economic policy. What are these key shifts, to what extent are they enforceable, and what implications are there for India?

Neither candidate is likely to pose major problems for the Indian government since the India-US relationship has moved beyond the idiosyncrasies of a specific administration. Common interests now shape the relationship and the US has dropped its hyphenation of India with Pakistan and recognizes that Kashmir is not an easily resolvable issue. President Trump is likely to be even more unsympathetic to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue given that protesters in Srinagar have started raising ISIS flags, an action that raises the hackles of western intelligence organizations. To sum up, the India-US relationship is unlikely to undergo major downturns since the relationship is better institutionalized and both candidates are seeking to be focused on domestic issues.

The New Symphony: Emerging Indo-US Security Entente

NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 8 | Author: Vijay Shankar | July 2016

To cite: Vijay Shankar. The New Symphony: Emerging Indo-US Security Entente. NIAS Strategic Forecast No. 8. Bangalore: International Strategic and Security Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, July 2016, available at http://isssp.in/the-new-symphony-emerging-indo-us-security-entente/

Change, more often than not, is driven by circumstances rather than scholastic deliberation. As President Obama once put it, perhaps as an unintended barb to the legions of geo-political seers that stalk Massachusetts Avenue, Washington DC, “Change doesn’t come from Washington but comes to Washington.” So it was with Prime Minister Modi’s three-day state visit to the USA (6th June to 8th June 2016). Not only did the visit lay the foundation to several strategic goals mutual to both sides, but was also punctuated by symbolism that provides a basis for the future.

When Modi suggested stepping out of the “shadows of hesitations of the past” he could not have stated in more unequivocal terms that India’s strategic orientation was now one that not only respected the status quo, but also would contribute towards ensuring that attempts to upset it would not go unchallenged. At the same time laying a floral wreath at Arlington Cemetery to the Tomb of the Unknowns (a first for an Indian PM), on the face of it, was a tribute to that one unquestioning instrument of state power who historically has laid down his all for a national cause. Underlying the salute was recognition of the role played by the military in binding and stabilizing an uncertain security milieu.

The Tribune, May 19, 2016

F-16 fighter aircraft have become the latest bone of contention in the volatile Pakistan-US relations. During the last month, there have been a series of statements, demands, counter demands, threats and carrots, both from the US and Pakistan.

The sale of eight American F-16s to Pakistan has been plaguing the relations between the countries, primarily due to American demands on Pakistan “to do more in Afghanistan”, differences within the US between the State Department, White House and the Congress, and (more importantly) who would foot the bill for the sale.

The U.S. government has made safeguarding of weapons-grade plutonium and highly enriched uranium an international policy priority, and convened The 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., on April 12 and 13, 2010. Forty six governments sent delegations to the summit and twenty nine of them made national commitments to support nuclear security. During the Summit, India announced its commitment to establish a Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership. The Centre is to be open to international participation through academic exchanges, training, and research and development efforts.

India-United States Cooperation on Global Security is the summary of a workshop held by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) together with its partner of more than 15 years, the National Institute for Advanced Studies (NIAS) in Bangalore, India. The workshop identified and examined potential areas for substantive scientific and technical cooperation between the two countries on issues related to nuclear material security. Technical experts from India and the United States focused on topics of nuclear material security and promising opportunities for India and the United States to learn from each other and cooperate. This report discusses nuclear materials management issues such as nuclear materials accounting, cyber security, physical security, and nuclear forensics.

National Workshop on Indo-US Relations: Changing Contours of Indo-US Relations

The International Strategic and Security Studies Programme of the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore organised a two day National Workshop on “Changing Contours of Indo-US Relations” during 9-10 February 2006. The objectives of the Workshop were to exchange views and generate opinion on a wide spectrum of issues relating to Indo-US relations.

The major focus of the Workshop was to critically assess the paradigm shift in perceptions reshaping Indo-US relations. The purpose was to get different perspectives on the commonalities and differences that would govern Indo-US relations in the near and distant future. The visit of the US President George W. Bush to India and the possibility of an accord between the US and India on civilian nuclear cooperation provided the backdrop to the organization of the workshop.

The themes for the debate in the workshop included:

Perceptions and misperceptions in Indo-US relations

Indo-US economic relations: emerging dynamics

Changing security environment and implications for Indo-US cooperation in defence

Prospects for Indo-US cooperation in high technology

US and Indian legal systems and their implications for Indo-US relations

This document is a detailed report of the workshop. At the end of each session a summary of the main highlights of the session is provided. This is followed by a discussion on how the different strands of thinking addressed in each of the sessions intertwine to provide an overall understanding of the critical drivers of the relationship between the US and India. We conclude with a brief section on the implications of this understanding for policy making.