Prediction Markets: Jeb Has Best Chance of Winning Nomination

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush waves on stage as he announces his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination during an event at Miami-Dade College - Kendall Campus in Miami, Florida. (Joe Readle/Getty Images)

Despite some setbacks and lack of ability to gain full support of party elites, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is still the top pick to win the Republican nomination by prediction markets.

According to The New York Times, this is significant because the prediction markets are historically more accurate in who they think will win political races than the pundits.
Bush has a 31 percent chance of winning the top GOP spot, according to PredictWise.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in second place with 25 percent chance of winning and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has an 18 percent chance.

The Times notes that Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has rated higher in the past, but right now PredictWise has him with a 5 percent chance of winning.

The former Florida governor's strengths are the fact that he brings experience, is deeply connected to party leaders, was a popular governor, and has a lot of interest in policy, according to the Times.

However, there are also weaknesses for Bush, who lacks in speaking prowess, is the brother of an unpopular president, and has yet to gain the trust of conservatives who are particularly skeptical about his views on immigration and education.

The Times' David Leonhardt of the political analysis blog, The Upshot, says that he takes some issue with the market predictions, saying that he thinks they are "still overestimating the chances that the nominee will be someone other than Mr. Bush, Mr. Rubio or Mr. Walker."

That being said, Leonhardt said that Bush's chances are likely still very much in flux.

"He is both the most likely Republican nominee — and still more likely than not to lose the nomination. The campaign has a long way to go," he writes.