Libya Starts Expanding Oil Exports — for Now, at Least

Little more than a week after the OPEC cartel moved to reduce oil supplies on the glutted global market, embattled Libya has reopened a major seaport terminal for oil exports and has announced that it intends to expand production through the rest of the year.

The expansion, if successful — some experts have doubts — would effectively cancel out much of the cuts recently agreed to by Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

The successful loading of a tanker on Thursday was the first time this year that oil has been dispatched from an oil terminal in Zueitina, Libya. The cargo of 800,000 barrels, destined for China, is viewed by energy experts as a tentative sign that Libya may finally be ready to return to the world market.

Although Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves, the country has been unable to export more than a trickle for most of the last five years because of the revolution that overthrew Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in 2011 and the civil war among competing militias that has continued since.

The renewed Libyan exports and plans to expand production were made possible by the Libyan National Army, the militia that took control of Zueitina and two other major ports last month.

Libya, as well as Iran and Nigeria, were exempted by the other 11 members of OPEC when they agreed on Sept. 28 to the general outlines of a cut of up to 700,000 barrels from the cartel’s current daily production level of just over 33 million barrels.

But with Libya’s National Oil Corporation now pledging to raise daily national production to 900,000 barrels by the end of the year — up from 500,000 barrels now — the country could potentially erase much of the cuts by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members.

OPEC will meet next month to outline the specific cuts to be made by each country. A lasting agreement seems less likely if other countries, including not only Libya but also Iran and Russia, continue to increase production.

The leader of the militia controlling the Zueitina terminal, Gen. Khalifa Haftar, a former Qaddafi officer who was a major figure in the rebellion against him, says all three ports would now come under the control of the National Oil Corporation, Libya’s state oil company, which partners with several western oil companies including Conoco Phillips, Marathon and Hess.

Already, Libyan production has nearly doubled since August and two other tanker cargos left the export terminal of Ras Lanuf in recent weeks, the first oil shipments from that port in nearly two years.

“In the short term, this is very good news,” said Geoff D. Porter, president of North Africa Risk Consulting. “He is making a play to bolster his political legitimacy,” he added, referring to General Haftar, “and he is trying to present himself as a national unifying figure.”

But Mr. Porter also noted that General Haftar could easily use his newfound oil leverage to block exports if competing militias or the government in Tripoli do not agree to give him whatever political role he demands in the future.

General Haftar has targeted oil assets while other militias have focused on fighting the Islamic State, or ISIS, forces in and around the city of Surt. The previous militia that controlled the eastern ports was unable to export because United States naval forces intervened and turned back a tanker that tried to do so.

That may be why General Haftar is pledging to share the ports and oil revenues with the central oil authorities and the national Central Bank, which have the support of the United States and several European countries.

Libya still effectively has two governments, one in the east affiliated with General Haftar and the other in Tripoli, which is recognized by the United Nations and supported by Washington. That is one reason oil experts remain skeptical that Libya will be able to sustain sizable exports for more than a few months.

“Were Libya able to sustain this level of production for a year, it would certainly undermine the OPEC agreement and result in no reduction whatsoever,” said David L. Goldwyn, who was the top energy diplomat at the State Department during the first Obama administration. “But the likelihood for them to sustain that level of production for one month, no less six months, is very low, and that is probably the way OPEC views it.”

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page B6 of the New York edition with the headline: Libya Starts Expanding Oil Exports, Though Some Experts Doubt It Will Last. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe