Political Wisdom: A Pivot to 2012 — and Palin

By

Mary Lu Carnevale

Nov 1, 2010 8:59 am ET

After Tuesday’s elections, we expect to see a pivot to 2012. In fact, the presidential election was front and center Sunday as Sarah Palinsuggested she might be just as happy sitting out the race. “I would weigh that, the freedom that I have now, against the constraints that I would have as a candidate,” she said on Fox News Sunday. She added that would run “if the country needed me – I’m not saying that the country does.”

At Politico, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei write that a variety of political advisers to the likely 2012 candidates are on “a common, if uncoordinated, mission of halting” Palin’s momentum gained from her midterm campaigning for candidates.

There is rising expectation among GOP elites that Palin will probably run for president in 2012 and could win the Republican nomination, a prospect many of them regard as a disaster in waiting.

Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating in the past two years.

“There is a determined, focused establishment effort … to find a candidate we can coalesce around who can beat Sarah Palin,” said one prominent and longtime Washington Republican. “We believe she could get the nomination, but Barack Obama would crush her.”

The success of Palin’s candidates — especially those in close races — on Tuesday will contribute to her cachet as a potential GOP presidential candidate in 2012. Certainly, many of those who received her endorsement — and the occasional cash that went with it — may be likely to return the favor two years down the road.

“In politics, part of being able to support other people of your party in your election endeavor is a way you build your network and you build power,” says Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. “She’s basically building a lot of clout within the party. She can raise money, she can turn out crowds. People read into her the ability to impact an election.”

So 2010 is as much about raising Palin’s visibility as it is about helping her fellow Mama and Papa Grizzlies. Sarah PAC gave a mere $320,000 to candidates between June 2009 and Oct. 13, only 6.4 percent of her total take through that time. Instead, Palin has spent the bulk of her cash on political consultants, fund-raising and traveling the country. The fund-raising efforts, continuous public speaking engagements and building a list of more than 5,000 presumably devoted donors could all be a boost to a 2012 candidacy…