Thursday, September 27, 2012

Another week in the books, and this past one was the first of many weekends coming up where key conference matchups will start shaping the BCS landscape.Now that most of the OOC games have been played, prior to releasing the new Power Poll, for my rotating piece of the column this week I will post my first Bowl Projections of the season.Keep in mind with my projections I followed the bowl tie-ins as best as I could, but in certain spots I project there will not be a team available to fill a specific conference tie-in, so I then input teams from other conferences with the best possible geographic tie-in for those spots (sometimes it wasn’t that possible).I have highlighted and put in lower case teams where a fill-in was necessary.

Gildan New Mexico: ARIZONA vs. utah state

Famous Idaho Potato: LOUISIANA TECH vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia: BYU vs. NEVADA

Beef O’Brady’s St. Petersburg: SOUTH FLORIDA vs. san jose state

New Orleans: SMU vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY

Las Vegas: FRESNO STATE vs. arizona state

Hawaii: SAN DIEGO STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA

Little Caesars Pizza: INDIANA vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN

Military:iowa state vs. minnesota

Belk: GEORGIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI

Holiday: TCU vs. UCLA

Independence: OLE MISS vs. DUKE

Russell Athletic: MIAMI, FLA vs. RUTGERS

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas: BAYLOR vs. NORTHWESTERN

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces:texas tech vs. BOISE STATE

Kraft Fight Hunger: NAVY vs. WASHINGTON

Pinstripe: OKLAHOMA STATE vs. UCONN

Alamo: OKLAHOMA vs. STANFORD

Buffalo Wild Wings: WEST VIRGINIA vs. WISCONSIN

Music City: MISSOURI vs. WAKE FOREST

Sun: NC STATE vs. OREGON STATE

Liberty: TULSA vs. TEXAS A&M

Chick-fil-A: TENNESSEE vs. VIRGINIA TECH

TicketCity: HOUSTON vs. ILLINOIS

Gator Bowl: MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. PURDUE

Capital One: LSU vs. MICHIGAN STATE

Outback: FLORIDA vs. NEBRASKA

Cotton: TEXAS vs. SOUTH CAROLINA

BBVA Compass: PITTSBURGH vs. AUBURN

GoDaddy.com: OHIO vs. UL-MONROE

Rose: OREGON vs. MICHIGAN

Orange: LOUISVILLE vs. CLEMSON

Sugar: GEORGIA vs. NOTRE DAME

Fiesta: KANSAS STATE vs. USC

BCS Championship: FLORIDA STATE vs. ALABAMA

Week Four Power Poll (ranking, team, record, last week’s PP ranking, next game vs. Power Poll team)

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0, #1): 10/20 @ #23 TENNESSEE

#2 Florida State Seminoles (4-0, #2): 11/24 VS #9 FLORIDA

#3 Georgia Bulldogs (4-0, #3): 09/29 VS #23 TENNESSEE

#4 Oregon Ducks (4-0, #5): 11/03 @ #13 USC

#5 Kansas State Wildcats (4-0, #9): 10/20 @ #15 WEST VIRGINIA

#6 South Carolina Gamecocks (4-0, #7): 10/06 VS #3 GEORGIA

#7 LSU Tigers (4-0, #4): 10/06 @ #9 FLORIDA

#8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0, #11): 10/13 VS #11 STANFORD

#9 Florida Gators (4-0, #13): 10/06 VS #7 LSU

#10 Texas Longhorns (3-0, #12): 10/06 VS #15 WEST VIRGINIA

#11 Stanford Cardinal (3-0, #15): 10/13 @ #8 NOTRE DAME

#12 Clemson Tigers (3-1, #6): 11/24 VS #6 SOUTH CAROLINA

#13 USC Trojans (3-1, #16): 11/03 VS #4 OREGON

#14 Oklahoma Sooners (2-1, #8): 10/13 VS #10 TEXAS

#15 West Virginia Mountaineers (3-0, #10): 09/29 VS #21 BAYLOR

#16 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, #14): 09/29 @ #19 MICHIGAN STATE

#17 Louisville Cardinals (4-0, #17):11/29 @ #20 RUTGERS

#18 Purdue Boilermakers (2-1, #20): 10/20 @ #16 OHIO STATE

#19 Michigan State Spartans (3-1, #21): 09/29 VS #16 OHIO STATE

#20 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-0, NR): 11/29 VS #17 LOUISVILLE

#21 Baylor Bears (3-0, #23): 09/29 @ #15 WEST VIRGINIA

#22 TCU Horned Frogs (3-0, #22): 10/13 @ #21 BAYLOR

#23 Tennessee Volunteers (3-1, #24): 09/29 @ #3 GEORGIA

#24 Northwestern Wildcats (4-0, #25): 11/17 2 #19 MICHIGAN STATE

#25 Oregon State Beavers (2-0, NR): 11/10 @ #11 STANFORD

Dropped out of Power Poll:

#18 UCLA

#19 Michigan

New addition to Power Poll:

#20 Rutgers

#25 Oregon State

Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only

A)Arizona State Sun Devils 3-1: NR

B)Mississippi State Bulldogs 4-0: NR

C)Nevada Wolfpack 3-1: N5

D)Texas Tech Red Raiders 3-0: NR

E)UCLA Bruins 3-1: #18

This week is a weak card as far as the top teams being challenged, as we only have three top 25 tilts:

#23 Tennessee @ #3 Georgia

#21 Baylor @ #15 West Virginia

#16 Ohio State @ #19 Michigan State

Top 25 discussion: the top 3 have remained static since seeing the opening weekend of games.The top 4 teams have separated themselves from the pack at this point in the season.The next 7 squads thru #11 Stanford all remain undefeated, and sans Notre Dame are BCS conference members.All seven of will certainly lose at least one game once conference play begins.USC and Oklahoma have picked up a loss, but have done so early enough to get themselves back in the national title race if they can run the table from here on out – USC seems possible, Oklahoma almost a lock to lose at least one more game.Clemson is the only 1 loss BCS conference team that is behind the 8 ball as they must run the table, and have Florida State lose twice during ACC play for them to win the Atlantic, play in the ACC Championship, and possible National Title Game berth – VERY UNLIKELY with FSU’s schedule and the fact a 1 loss ACC team is highly unlikely to get an invite to play in the Championship Game.However, both could certainly play in a BCS bowl game considering they each have a huge rivalry game to close their season: Clemson vs. South Carolina & Florida State vs. Florida – which is why I currently project both to be involved in the BCS.The highest ranked Big Ten team that is eligible for postseason play is #18 Purdue, who must be considered the favorite to win the Leaders division – they were my selection to win the division in my final preseason projection article.Rutgers joins the PP this week following back to back impressive road wins over teams ranked at one time or another in the PP, South Florida and Arkansas.The Big 12 has 6 ranked teams, led by Kansas State, whose next test vs. a fellow PP team will be a 10/20 trip to Morgantown.Oregon State only has a pair of wins on the season, but neither was a cupcake as they too beat a pair of previously ranked teams in Wisconsin at home and UCLA in the Rose Bowl – keep an eye on the Civil War this year, one of the better under the radar rivalries in college football.The bottom eight teams in the PP are very fluid, and would all drop out of the PP with a loss.

After three weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten – HOU, ATL & ARI; while a pair are winless – NO & CLE.The Saints haven’t won a game yet?This is the NFL, a league that spreads the talent around to all 32 teams, and any given season literally any team can shock the world and play well, or vice versa like the Saints this season, any team can struggle.Sadly, instead of the attention going to how well HOU, ATL & ARI have played so far, the focus of most conversations related to the NFL this season is aimed at the poor job the replacement officials are doing.It’s hard to argue any differently to be frank.That is all I will say about it – now, we will jump right into the numbers, and actually discuss football and how teams are performing.

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL TEAM

Wins

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

Rating

Rank

3

HOU

52.7

4

54.3

1

107.0

1

2

PHI

41.0

16

53.8

2

94.8

2

1

NE

52.8

2

37.3

16

90.2

3

3

ATL

52.3

5

37.7

15

90.0

4

2

NYG

49.0

7

40.7

12

89.7

5

2

SF

46.2

11

42.0

11

88.2

6

1

MIA

40.3

17

47.2

7

87.5

7

2

BUF

50.7

6

36.7

18

87.3

8

2

BAL

52.8

2

34.3

22

87.2

9

2

DAL

38.3

19

48.2

4

86.5

10

2

MIN

45.7

12

40.5

13

86.2

11

2

CHI

32.5

29

53.0

3

85.5

12

2

SD

42.0

15

43.5

10

85.5

12

1

GB

37.0

23

48.2

4

85.2

14

1

KC

47.0

8

36.5

19

83.5

15

2

SEA

36.2

25

47.0

8

83.2

16

1

DET

46.8

9

35.8

21

82.7

17

1

PIT

46.3

10

36.3

20

82.7

17

1

DEN

43.3

14

38.7

14

82.0

19

1

WAS

53.7

1

27.2

29

80.8

20

3

ARI

32.3

30

47.8

6

80.2

21

1

TB

28.5

32

45.0

9

73.5

22

1

STL

35.7

27

37.0

17

72.7

23

2

CIN

44.5

13

27.0

30

71.5

24

1

IND

37.5

21

33.3

23

70.8

25

2

NYJ

38.2

20

32.7

25

70.8

25

1

CAR

39.7

18

28.7

26

68.3

27

1

JAC

36.7

24

28.5

28

65.2

28

1

OAK

36.2

25

28.7

26

64.8

29

0

CLE

29.0

31

33.2

24

62.2

30

0

NO

37.3

22

22.5

31

59.8

31

1

TEN

32.8

28

16.8

32

49.7

32

Starting next week I will also include each team’s blended SOS ratings as they finally become relevant enough to discuss.As far as the performance ratings go, they too will start to be more static in the next 2-3 weeks where we will typically not see the type of huge jumps week to week that are still occurring – for example, NYG went from #18 last week to #5 this week, or CAR falling from #17 last week to #27 this week.

Looking at where the ratings stack up following Wk3 the top 3 remained the same – yes, even PHI remains in the #2 spot as they are truly playing well, except TOM is absolutely killing them (PHI is (6) which ranks them #30 in the NFL) – right there shows just how important turnovers are for any team.The Eagles are currently being buoyed by a strong defense that checks in @ #2 in the NFL (#7 vs. rush, #6 vs. pass, #1 vs. miscellaneous), but in order to make some noise in the coming weeks and stay alive in the NFC East their offense will need to improve statistically, and in holding on to the football.MIA and BUF are two more surprise top ten teams, checking in at #7 & #8 respectively.Those two are doing it differently with MIA holding a #17/#7 split between offense and defense rating, while BUF is almost the mirror image at #6/#18.Keep an eye on these two in the next few weeks: MIA has a pair of road games @ ARI and CIN, while BUF has a tough trio coming up hosting NE, then a pair of road games @ SF and ARI.We will know a lot more about both of these teams come Wk7.MIN is the top ranked NFC North team, using a nice balance between offense and defense to post a 2-1 record following last week’s impressive win over SF.Christian Ponder is having a fabulous season thus far leading the 6th ranked passing offense including ranking #2 in completion %, #2 in INT, and #4 in QBR.GB continues to struggle offensively posting the 23rd ranked offense through 3 games, as their rushing offense sits at #24, while passing wise they are just #22.We should see their rating jump in the next two weeks, especially offensively, after they host NO and visit IND.DEN has fallen from #6 last week to #19 this week driven by a poor defensive performance vs. HOU at home Sunday.One thing to keep an eye on with DEN is the fact they have faced a very tough schedule thus far, as included in their three games are two of the three undefeated teams (ATL, HOU).I expect DEN to improve in the coming weeks as their team gels behind new QB Peyton Manning, and the schedule eases some – currently I have DEN as facing the 2nd toughest schedule to date, but with the 29th toughest slate remaining.Undefeated ARI only moved up 2 spots to #21 as their offense remains ranked poorly at #30.As mentioned last week this is a team to keep an eye on as fade material in the coming weeks as they are not playing as well as their record, and the media indicates.TEN remains the worst team in the NFL, and didn’t pick up much ground despite their exciting OT win over DET.

With ATL & NYG climbing up the ratings to #4 & #5 respectively, the NFC now has 4 of the top 6 teams in football.What’s more, 7 of the bottom 9 reside in the AFC, with the only NFC representatives being #31 NO and #27 CAR – a pair of NFC South teams.As far as strength of division goes, the NFC North has the highest ranked “worst” team with DET checking in at T17; the NFC East has 2 of the top 5, 3 of the top 10, and their last team WAS is a respectable #20.The NFC shows clear domination through the early part of the season, which ties into their big edge in head to head meetings with the AFC.Of note with the AFC, the East also has strength at the top with 3 of their 4 teams ranking in the top 8.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk3.As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.

AFC East

Wins

Loss

NFC East

Wins

Loss

NYJ

9.14

6.86

PHI

9.67

6.33

NE

8.72

7.28

DAL

8.87

7.13

BUF

8.07

7.93

NYG

8.39

7.61

MIA

7.22

8.78

WAS

6.76

9.24

AFC North

NFC North

BAL

9.58

6.42

GB

8.88

7.12

PIT

8.49

7.52

CHI

8.30

7.70

CIN

8.08

7.92

MIN

7.86

8.14

CLE

4.35

11.65

DET

7.84

8.16

AFC South

NFC South

HOU

13.08

2.92

ATL

10.85

5.15

JAC

5.66

10.34

CAR

7.24

8.76

IND

5.54

10.46

TB

6.22

9.78

TEN

5.43

10.57

NO

6.00

10.00

AFC West

NFC West

SD

9.23

6.77

SF

10.74

5.26

DEN

9.05

6.95

ARI

9.13

6.87

KC

6.68

9.32

SEA

8.39

7.61

OAK

6.40

9.61

STL

6.14

9.86

Playoffs

Playoffs

#6 NE @ #3 SD

#6 DAL @ #3 PHI

#5 DEN @ #4 NYJ

#5 ARI @ #4 GB

#1 HOU

#1 ATL

#2 BAL

#2 SF

Following Wk3 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 8 teams, 4 up and 4 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings.After updating for last week’s action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are eight teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:

UP:ATL 1.3, MIN 1.3, NYG 1.1, ARI 1.1

DOWN: CAR (1.2), WAS (1.2), SD (1.2), PIT 1.0

As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, the NYJ, following their win in MIA while PIT is no longer projected to reach the playoffs after falling to 1-2 following a loss to OAK.Seeding wise HOU remains the #1 seed, and as I projected heading into the season, I will be shocked if they are not the AFC’s #1 seed come January – barring catastrophic injury of course.In the AFC, I look for DEN to make a move and likely win the AFC West because as mentioned they have a remaining schedule that is ranked near the easiest in the NFL, while the Jets could be in trouble as they easily have the toughest remaining schedule of potential AFC playoff teams as things stand now.In the NFC we also only saw one playoff team change with ARI joining, and DET dropping.SOS will be a critical factor down the stretch for all these teams, and that is something again we will know more about in the next few weeks, but as things currently stand DET has the #2 remaining SOS, while ARI is #3 – that could work out to be a major disadvantage as the season plays out.

In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns have pulled ahead of the Titans because of the aforementioned TEN win.Currently, CLE has about a 1.5-2 calibrated game edge on the 3 AFC South teams (not including HOU obviously) who are their closest chasers.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings.My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread.These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays, which are currently 2-0 on season in games I released, and 7-0 overall including games I left off early in season although they fit the criteria:

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.