More specifically, according to some party officials and critics, Trudeau’s decision was really about protecting star candidate Chrystia Freeland, a celebrated author and journalist, who last year beat NDP and fellow star candidate Linda McQuaig in the by-election for the riding of Toronto Centre.

Leaders and party strategists have long recruited and protected star candidates for a variety of reasons. They assume, for instance, that these individuals make excellent cabinet or shadow cabinet ministers. They also assume that star candidates attract all sorts of positive attention from the media. But the main reason why leaders and strategists are so attracted to these individuals is because they assume that these candidates can significantly increase their party’s vote share at election time.

But is this true? Recently, a colleague and I conducted a study that looked at the effects of star candidates on vote choice. What we found was that a star candidate could, on average, produce a 10-percentage point bump at the polls. So at first glance, the experts and strategists are right; star candidates do seem to help parties increase their vote share at election time.

But, there are two important caveats to this finding. First, our research found that partisan voters were less likely to be swayed by star candidates than non-partisans. So, no matter how reputable or famous a star candidate was, partisans still tended to support their party’s candidate.

Second, this 10-point bump, while relatively large, was tempered by the fact that only 5 per cent of Canadian voters in previous federal elections voted decisively because of the local candidate.

In other words, the impact of star candidates is limited mostly to non-partisans and a really small portion of the Canadian electorate.

What does this mean for leaders and party strategists who seek to recruit, appoint and protect star candidates at election time?

If the main concern is increasing vote share, then protecting star candidates in the way that Trudeau has been protecting Freeland is not a good idea. The negative publicity and fallout has been significant for the party, and we know from our research that the benefits that parties receives at the ballot box from star candidates are limited.

Instead, the political calculus involving star candidates should centre on other considerations, such as whether additional expertise is needed at the cabinet table or in front of the podium. As Trudeau is discovering, the costs of protecting star candidates can be significant. Party leaders and strategists need to realize exactly what kinds of benefits that star candidates can provide them before they decide to circumvent the democratic process by parachuting or blocking candidate nominations.

Christopher Alcantara is associate professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University. He and Dr. Jason Roy are conducting research that assesses a set of common myths about Canadian electoral politics. This research on local candidates and vote choice is forthcoming in the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties.

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