2011 SCTE Show

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Google made quite a splash yesterday when word surfaced that the company has plans to develop a retail set-top using the Android OS. Reactions ran from one end of the spectrum to the other. Some said the move was inevitable. On the other hand, Silicon Alley Insider said Google is set to become the latest failure in the American living room, and Todd Spangler was emphatic in pointing out that Google should take caution from TiVo’s story and that the company isn’t likely to conquer TV any time soon.

So who’s right?

I believe that Google may have a chance at being successful in TV, but not ultimately by offering only an over-the-top solution. As I’ve said in the past, cable and telecom companies have the ability to add OTT content to their existing television services, and they are experimenting in that direction. However, OTT companies will have a much more difficult time adding a full slate of premium TV content to their services. The money equation doesn’t net out. And I doubt that Google specifically has any great desire to be in the business of making big content deals. As Karl Bode has pointed out, Google is focused on the ad business where it’s made gobs of money. It’s why Google doesn’t want to be an ISP either.

On the other hand, could Google make a go of it in TV by working within the cable and telecom model? It’s certainly possible. Particularly since that model is moving toward IP (not Internet) delivery. In my very personal opinion, Google is experimenting on the retail front, but that doesn’t mean that’s where it will stay.

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[…] Mari Silbey at the MediaExperiences2Go blog addressed the issue that it’s a lot easier for cable operators to add Internet content than for over-the-top video providers (such as Hulu) to add “a full slate of premium TV content to their services.” She also hits the other key point: the “model is moving toward IP (not Internet) delivery.” A cable operator could use Internet Protocol to move the bits that make up your favorite TV show; that’s not the same as Internet content. What makes the difference between services like Hulu & iTunes versus cable is about what content you can offer. You either have to produce the content yourself or you have to be willing to pay for it. […]

[…] would have to be negotiated around deals already in place with cable and telco TV providers. Google could certainly make an impact, but not at the level envisioned in the CNET post. Also, without working directly with cable and […]

[…] I’m far more curious about what this means for Google on the IP video front. Last year I posted my skepticism about the Google TV launch over on the Motorola blog. Read the excerpt: I believe that Google may have a chance at being successful in TV, but not […]