Category Archives: 2010 Oscars

I know. It’s been really dry here. As dry as summer. I have this summer job that makes me so busy the whole day that I’m so tired by night. But I’ll make it up to you, guys. Added to the delay is the fact that the next nominee to be discussed is THERE WILL BE BLOOD. Any clues now?

Anyway, I have watched some films last year. Here are some thoughts:

I thought the film was very well made. The performances were good. There are only two or three boring scenes. I slept in 5 minutes of it, but I woke up and I was still in the same scene. But the ending was awful! I mean, they should have ended the movie with the close up on Jim Sturgess’ face. With those documentary-like part, and that TV ending, it just fell there. Too bad, the last 5 minutes of the film made me actually think that the movie’s bad.

Here is my full predictions together with my notes on their chances. Here it is:

Legend:

Green – Frontrunners

Red– Potential Spoilers

Pink – Still Has A Chance

Blue – No Chance of Winning

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Best Motion Picture

My Prediction: The King’s Speech – If the three guilds really is a big deal to them, then they would give it to The King’s Speech. It’s a toss.

Major Spoiler: The Social Network – Even if its chances were somewhat lessened by the unexpected success of The King’s Speech, I still believe the precursors and stronger critical support will make it get the gold.

3rd: True Grit – With the shocking support that it had, I should say it still has a run for the gold.

4th: The Fighter – It has all the vital nominations so it may spoil.

5th: Black Swan – After the nominations, I could say we had so much expectations with this in terms of the number of nominations. But who could say? The movie’s a magnet.

6th: Inception – Without the Best Director omission (which I hate!), I can safely say that it will remain in the 6th place, no matter what happens. What’s wrong with the Academy? Do you simply hate Nolan?

7th: The Kids Are All Right – With its topic (which is really relevant), I’m sure there will be some # 1 votes for it.

8th: Toy Story 3 – It has sure supporters! It’s collecting bunch of fans since 1995 and yet, the animation bias is still true.

9th: 127 Hours – Alright. They don’t love Danny Boyle as much as they loved him in Slumdog, but there are already sure votes for it, at least some # 1.

10th: Winter’s Bone – A very few # 1 for it. Maybe almost none, but they surely liked it.

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Best Director

My Prediction: David Fincher (The Social Network) – As I am shaky with TSN getting best picture,I believe it will get this. . . . .

Best Art Direction

Major Spoiler: Inception – The technical support for the film seems strong, so it’s possible.

3rd: Alice in Wonderland – Again, it could happen.

4th: True Grit – Because it showed up well, it could happen as well.

5th: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 – They won’t reward the film series yet (there is still Part 2)!

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Best Original Song

Frontrunner: I See the Light (Tangled) – They only pushed for one song for the film, and the love for the film (not in Animate Feature) can show up here.

Major Spoiler: We Belong Together (Toy Story 3) – If they would want to give TS3 more than one nominee, than this will be it.

3rd: If I Rise (127 Hours) – If a need for the film to be given an award rises, this will be it.

4th: Coming Home (Country Strong) – So they actually cared for this?

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Best Animated Feature

Frontunner: Toy Story 3 – Sealed.

Major Spoiler: How to Train Your Dragon – If there is any chance that they wouldn’t want to reward the whole trilogy, then they may settle for this. But that will happen if they haven’t seen the trilogy.

3rd: The Illusionist – Unlike Persepolis where it had a chance, it’s fighting with a BP nominee and a strong Dreamworks movie, so no chance.

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So, what are your predictions? Drop in you comments and let’s see who gets the predictions right on the Big Night! 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 I’m excited!

After the three consecutive wins of The King’s Speech in vital awards (PGA, DGA, SAG), I start to think that The Social Network (which is, in fact, really great) is not really safe for the BP win. Even if it almost swept all of the critics’ orgs, the NBR, and the Golden Globes, those three are the ones I’m upset that TSN didn’t get. So, this just means that this is a neck-to-neck race, huh?

So, we see that the Golden Globes, PGA, DGA, and SAG are the very vital components for you to win the Oscar BP. Here is a short look at the past 15 years of the awards circuit trend.

1995

GG: Sense and Sensibility / Babe

PGA: Apollo 13

DGA: Apollo 13

SAG: Apollo 13

OSCAR: Braveheart (0 of 4 precursors)

1996

GG: The English Patient / Evita

PGA: The English Patient

DGA: The English Patient

SAG: The Birdcage

OSCAR: The English Patient (3 of 4 precursors)

1997

GG: Titanic / As Good As It Gets

PGA: Titanic

DGA: Titanic

SAG: The Full Monty

OSCAR: Titanic (3 of 4 precursors)

1998

GG: Saving Private Ryan / Shakespeare in Love

PGA: Saving Private Ryan

DGA: Saving Private Ryan

SAG: Shakespeare in Love

OSCAR: Shakespeare in Love (2 of 4 precursors)

1999

GG: American Beauty / Toy Story 2

PGA: American Beauty

DGA: American Beauty

SAG: American Beauty

OSCAR: American Beauty (4 of 4 precursors)

2000

GG: Gladiator / Almost Famous

PGA: Gladiator

DGA: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

SAG: Traffic

OSCAR: Gladiator (2 of 4 precursors)

2001

GG: A Beautiful Mind / Moulin Rouge!

PGA: Moulin Rouge!

DGA: A Beautiful Mind

SAG: Gosford Park

OSCAR: A Beautiful Mind (2 of 4 precursors)

2002

GG: The Hours / Chicago

PGA: Chicago

DGA: Chicago

SAG: Chicago

OSCAR: Chicago (4 of 4 precursors)

2003

GG: LOTR: The Return of the King / Lost in Translation

PGA: LOTR: The Return of the King

DGA: LOTR: The Reutn of the King

SAG: LOTR: The Return of the King

OSCAR: LOTR: The Return of the King (4 of 4 precursors)

2004

GG: The Aviator / Sideways

PGA: The Aviator

DGA: Million Dollar Baby

SAG: Sideways

OSCAR: Million Dollar Baby (1 of 4 precursors)

2005

GG: Brokeback Mountain / Walk the Line

PGA: Brokeback Mountain

DGA: Brokeback Mountain

SAG: Crash

OSCAR: Crash (1 of 4 precursors)

2006

GG: Babel / Dreamgirls

PGA: Little Miss Sunshine

DGA: The Departed

SAG: Little Miss Sunshine

OSCAR: The Departed (1 of 4 precursors)

2007

GG: Atonement / Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber from Fleet Street

PGA: No Country for Old Men

DGA: No Country for Old Men

SAG: No Country for Old Men

OSCAR: No Country for Old Men (3 of 4 precursors)

2008

GG: Slumdog Millionaire / Vicky Cristina Barcelona

PGA: Slumdog Millionaire

DGA: Slumdog Millionaire

SAG: Slumdog Millionaire

OSCAR: Slumdog Millionaire (4 of 4 precursors)

2009

GG: Avatar / The Hangover

PGA: The Hurt Locker

DGA: The Hurt Locker

SAG: Inglurious Basterds

OSCAR: The Hurt Locker (2 of 4 precursors)

2010

GG: The Social Network / The Kids Are All Right

PGA: The King’s Speech

DGA: The King’s Speech

SAG: The King’s Speech

OSCAR: ? ? ? ? ? (The Social Nework or The King’s Speech) ? ? ? ? ?

The trend is that at least, you need to win one of those (don’t count Braveheart, alright?). It doesn’t really matter if you win all or many, but it does sure help. Here is a table containing the number of BP winners that get the same number of awards from the vital four awards.

4 awards – 4 of 15 (27%)

3 awards – 3 of 15 (20%)

2 awards – 4 of 15 (27%)

1 award – 3 of 15 (20%)

No award – 1 of 15 (6%)

The King’s Speech won 3. The Social Network won 1. They both have 20% chance of winning, if you’ll look at the history. No one’s really ahead cuz it’s a neck-to-neck race. TSN fans, myself included, don’t worry. It’s a 50-50 race.

Also, if you’ll look at the number of nominations of the BP winner and its closest competitor for the last 15 years, they do not really mean “more noms is exactly for the win.” At bold is the winner. Take a look at this:

1995

Braveheart – 10 / Apollo 13 – 9

1996

The English Patient – 12 / Fargo – 7

1997

Titanic – 14 / LA Confidential – 9

1998

Shakespeare in Love – 13 / Saving Private Ryan – 11

1999

American Beauty – 8 / The Sixth Sense – 7

2000

Gladiator – 12 / Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon – 10

2001

LOTR: The Fellowship of the Ring – 13 / A Beautiful Mind – 8

2002

Chicago – 13 / Gangs of New York – 10

2003

LOTR: The Return of the King – 11 / Master and Commander – 10

2004

The Aviator – 11 / Million Dollar Baby – 7

2005

Brokeback Mountain – 8 / Crash – 6

2006

Babel – 7 / The Departed – 5

2007

No Country for Old Men – 8 / There Will Be Blood – 8

2008

The Curious Case… – 13 / Slumdog Millionaire – 10

2009

Avatar – 9 / The Hurt Locker – 9

2010

The King’s Speech – 12 / The Social Network – 8

The 90’s generally proved that “more noms=win.” After the win of Million Dollar Baby, the trend had changed. It doesn’t always mean thet if you have the most number of nominations, then you’ll win. Moreso, the only two cases where the winner had the most number of nominations was that it was also with equal number of nominations with its closest competitor.

It doesn’t really matter if Harvy Weinstein is a great campaigner, he’s still a hit or miss. Did well with Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and The Reader, but failed for pushing too much (Cotillard and Laurent for Best Actress last year).

I guess the only option for The Social Network to seal the deal is to have a stronger campaign. But still, it’s a 50-50 race. 😉

Which movie between the two do you prefer? Which one do you think will win?

Andrew Garfield (The Social Network) – With the aid of a strong film, Never Let Me Go’s acclaim, and Timberlake’s another supporting performance from his film, I still wonder why did the SAG ignore him.

Jeremy Renner (The Town) – Carries the film’s only buzz, but still…

Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right) – He’s great there. And Globe. And SAG!

Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech) – Even if his chances of winning are definitely lessened, his chances of getting here aren’t.

A locked category.

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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams (The Fighter) – The fighter’s strong streak continues…..

Helena Bonham-Carter (The King’s Speech) – Not really going for the win but for the safest slot here.

Mila Kunis (Black Swan) – It’s either her or Jacki Weaver. Really.

Melissa Leo (The Fighter) -The race’s frontrunner for the win.

Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) – She’s got a lot of supporting from guilds. But where doesn she really belong? Here or leading? She may slip away….. especially no Globe.

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I have also predictions for the other categories, but I only keep score of the main 6 categories. So, what’s yours? Don’t forget to vote here!

For the first time, I joined Stinkylulu’s annual tradition of hosting a blog-a-thon that pays tribute to the several supporting actresses of the past year. For this, this post serves as my in this special event. Click here.

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approximately 14 minutes and 44 seconds

12.35% of the film’s running time

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Maria Paiato as Ida Roselli

In this year packed with supporting actresses, whether she is a king’s queen, a boxer’s mom, a boxer’s girl, a rival ballet dancer, a mob mother, a lead actress in a western, and among others, supporting actresses outside the English language are very much ignored. Before I continue this, I would admit that I haven’t seen many films from 2010 yet. So, in this high-profile grandiose Italian melodrama, the one’s getting attention is the ever-wonderful Tilda Swinton in the role of Emma Recchi.

What most people do not acknowledge is that the film was an ensemble work. Tilda’s the lead, but it’s not just her show. And the film has a great cast. And here, I am going to recognize Maria Paiato in the endearing role of the loyal maid of the Recchi family.

In a fast glimpse in the movie, you may simply ignore her, as she is just behind, but she also gets to have conversations with the other highlighted characters. But what you will notice on repeated viewings is on how much Maria adds in the making of the film’s over-all impact.

First of all, she is not a maid with a back story, or a maid with family problems at home, she plays it straight. But she means not as a maid to Emma, but more of a confidante. Still, she never forgets the job that she has in the house.

We are not given much details in her life. She plays it straight throughout. She doesn’t have any big breakdowns until the end of the film, but she places certainty in us that she is a character with emotions. She did not act in a way that you will feel that she was just placed in the story to be the head maid of the family. She is a person with feelings. She plays it with tenderness and gentleness that we could sympathize to her because she does everything for the good of the family, but that doesn’t mean that she did it in a one-dimensional way. The screenplay may have written her that way, but she doesn’t do that.

Also, she is the character that we most trust to. She’s the character without any vanity, she is an honest person, and she doesn’t try to meddle in the proceedings. She goes with the flow in the film’s turbulent events, and she’s the character the characters in the story trust. With her simple conversations with Emma, she easily creates a strong foundation of assurance from her character that she will never let Emma down.

Can you see Maria? She’s the one in the rightmost of the picture.

She trusts Emma, and what’s more is that Emma trusts her. And we trust her. I believe it is really hard to make a convincing performance that evokes trust. Especially in this story filled with characters doing things that really cause a doubt in us (Emma is having an affair with her son’s friend, her son is secretly pregnant with his girlfriend, her daughter is a closeted lesbian), we would really root for a character that we can trust. And that is simply played very well by Maria.

Before the film’s tense second half, she never tries to steal anyone’s spotlight. Not from Emma. Not from Emma’s son. Not from Emma’s daughter. Not from Emma’s family. You may say that you have never noticed her in the first hour of the film, as the conflicts of the story tend to really steal away from her the focus, and she never had much focus in those scenes, but she crafts a solid character with ease in these two acts that provide the backbone for the character’s tougher scenes.

For the second half, her character is immersed in an environment filled with uncertainty. She’s the only one that we could trust. And the only one the characters trust. She was able to be in two key scenes that leaves a mark to us.

First was when Edoardo Jr., played by Flavio Parenti, expresses confusion, doubt, and weakness to her, and he cries to her. She carries the unexplainable care that she wants to give to him but is suppressed because she is not in any way related to her. Of course, she had been there for a very long time and may have seen the growth of the Recchi children, but still, she is not a part of the family.She does it in a very subtle way. She doesn’t expect that, and the silent shock is very well-played by her.

Second was the film’s explosive and, should I say, mystical ending. The spotlight is in the whole ensemble, but the focus was on Emma and her. As Emma rushes to escape, she assists her. She knows where the panic came from, and she understands all well. As if she knows everything. In this scene, we get to find out that Ida is the most alert character in the film. Because she is not part of the family, she remains restrained for the most part, but as the head maid and trusted one of the family, she knows the dynamics of the family.

And if you would be able to observe in her earlier conversations with Emma, she senses something weird, but of course, she’s a maid. She stops for a while, but never tries to steal any spotlight from her, as she is built to react. She but it is the ending that makes her active. She takes the initiative of helping Emma, as she knows the whole family, led by Emma’s husband, wants to abhor her out of the family. She’s Emma’s real friend, but she never crosses the boundary, as she is still a maid.

And the ending is the only outburst the character can have. And Ida releases the tears with overflowing and amazing sensation of grief and, in some ways, guilt. She could have helped Emma more. But she’s limited by her capacity to help due to her loyalty to the family, and she knows what may happen to Emma. She cares for herself, but she is not selfish. She just doesn’t want to interfere. It’s a magical work from Maria, as she holds the screen with control to be able to bring a realistic approach to the scene. It’s a somewhat puzzling ending, though I love it. There is a metaphoric tone in it that you might not get, but Maria explodes with big amount of clarity in it. It’s the best moment of the film, but everyone might not get it.

Her best scene is, unfortunately, a big spoiler for those who hasn’t seen the film yet, and I don’t want to spoil such extraordinary movie experience, but for those who has seen it and want to take a look at it, or those who are just curious about seeing what I am talking about, here it is:

Come the awards season, and she didn’t get any notice. Of course, there are a lot of factors: she lives up in being a real supporting actress that does not try to steal anything from those she supports, she is a relatively unknown actress if we are taking about Hollywood, and she’s in a foreign language film. If she had been very famous and was in an American film, I’m sure she will be noticed and she could have been nominated. But nonetheless, Paiato provides a strong emotional vessel to us that does it in the real meaning of the word “supporting”.