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Another one bites the dust

This time, it’s Cory Booker. He just announced, via Twitter, that he’s dropping out of the race.

“It’s with a full
heart that I share this news—I’m suspending my campaign for president. To my
team, supporters, and everyone who gave me a shot—thank you. I am so proud of
what we built, and I feel nothing but faith in what we can accomplish together.”

Short and sweet. The
Senator joins the other Democratic candidates who have left the race—Julian Castro,
Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Kirsten Gillibrand, Eric Swalwell and the others.

To
me, this indicates that most Democratic voters haven’t made up their minds. Overwhelmingly,
sentiment among Democrats and many independents is that Trump absolutely must
go. Nothing else matters. They don’t care which Democrat is elected, as long as
he or she is able to beat the worst president in history and restore normalcy
to American politics and culture.

That’s
certainly the way I feel. I have a soft spot for Mayor Pete, and I’m amazed
that a gay man has come this far; but I wonder if enough Americans can put aside
their discomfort with a gay man and vote for him. I also have some trepidation
about Sanders and Warren; both may be too far to the left to win the actual
election. That leaves Klobuchar, whom I’m increasingly liking. She’s a moderate
progressive, has the best smile of all the candidates (no small thing when so
much of the race is run on television), and is a woman. It also leaves
Bloomberg. I saw one analysis that said Bloomberg, of all the candidates, is
best poised to win Florida, because he’s an elderly New York Jew and Florida is
filled with elderly New York Jews (of whom I’m one, too).

But look at the electoral votes of all the states. Let’s assume the Democrats hold all the states they won in 2016. Now, suppose Trump wins Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), as he did in 2016, for a total of 46, and the Democrat wins Florida (29). The Democrat then would have to compensate for losing the three Midwest states by winning a state Trump won in 2016 that has at least 17 electoral votes; or the Democrat would have to win at least two Trump states with a combined total of at least 17 electoral votes. What state/s could qualify? Let’s look at a couple possibilities. (Keep in mind that Bloomberg is not included in most recent polls due to his non-debate status.)

North
Carolina (15 electoral votes). Trump won in 2016. But Sanders and Biden are
currently ahead of him in the polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. So North
Carolina, which is trending blue, could be a significant Democratic win.

Ohio
(18 electoral votes). Trump won in 2016. Polling results there have been mixed,
but in FiveThirtyEight’s latest roundup, four polls show Democrats beating him
this year, while only two show Trump beating the Democrat (four others are
even). So Ohio could be a big pickup for Democrats.

It’s
going to be a fight, but North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Michigan—states Trump
won in 2016–are all distinctly winnable by the Democratic candidate! I doubt
that Texas will make the switch in 2020. But between the other three, there’s a
total of 49 electoral votes. That’s easily enough, with Florida, to hand the
election to the Democrat.

So I’m hopeful. This is the Democrats’ race to lose.
Given their history of circular firing squads (cf. 2016), it might be too much
to expect them to maintain solidarity. But I’m feeling good right now.