This was running through my mind as I was thinking about the number of incidents that happen because of poor judgement...

"Could I pull that off 100 times in a row?"

Whether it be landing an Icarus 39, landing a Mr. Bill, buzzing a bridge in a wingsuit, swooping the hangar, etc...if that question were honestly asked and answered, I bet it would give us some internal guidance and a different perspective on the limits and costs associated. I think we all know a few friends who wish they could go back in time and take back a mistake (wouldn't it be great if we had do-overs...)

I'm all for pushing the limits to explore and expand the possibilities...but if one can't be confident of pulling something off 100 times in a row (or even 1000 times in a row)...you are essentially playing Russian Roulette.

Personally, I'd think twice about doing anything that I felt I had a 1 in 100 chance of dying from....but that's just me.

how many times has everyone done something, (not necessarily just in skydiving) but afterwards thought 'i was lucky to get away with that' I know i have many times. But in a situation where you have a long time beforehand to contemplate your actions it shouldn't happen. however the power of hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Yeah...I was thinking back to something that happened to me in the past...

I had about 150 jumps and was under a Sabre 190, loaded about 1.25...I was on my base leg to final and reached up grabbing a handful of left front riser. I pulled off a 180 degree carving hook and swooped the hell out of that Sabre.

You know what I learned? That swoop was an accident. I was not in control, just lucky. I couldn't do it 100 times in a row...I stopped, I slowed down, I'm still living and enjoying skydiving.

Well, I look at skydiving as playing the odds and I want to stack the deck in my favor. I guestimate that I have a 1 in 100,000 of dying on any jump. I also guestimate I have about a 1 in 1,000 of breaking a leg on any particular jump (this may be higher but I don’t know many people with more than 5,000 jumps that haven’t broken something). Sooo, if someone told me that I had a 1 in 100 chance of pulling something off no way would I do it. If I was told I had a 1 in 1000 chance of dying an any particular jump, no way would I do it. In high gusty winds, I guestimate that the chances of breaking a leg go form 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 50 or a 100. Everyone has their own risk tolerance. Personally, I’d like to make 400 jumps this year and thousands in my skydiving career. No one jump is worth taking an undue risk that will keep me from those goals.

Tim brought this up while we were waiting "3 hours" for his girlfriend to get an Otter assignment for her second Tandem jump (go Michelle..!), and it makes perfect sense. But after reading this post, a thought occurred to me.

If no one ever stepped up to be first, how many sports today would not be here for us to enjoy. This goes for equipment as well. If someone didn't get to the door with a square canopy, we wouldn't be flying them today. At some point, someone always needs to be the first. By being the first, there isn’t always stats to fall back on. You have zero idea if it can be done 100 times in a row. You can test all you want, but ultimately, someone needs to be the first.

There are very few jumps forward without risk. Personally I would rather not be the first in anything, but I'm glad there are those that are. How would you feel boarding the space shuttle knowing the odds? Not this guy, but the seats will be full. I would have loved to have been there when the first pilot chute was used. Makes perfect sense now, but I’m sure was thought of as insane then.

Over the last few months I’ve been fine tuning my own gear. The last few weekends I’ve been experimenting with a pocket slider. These have been used a ton, but it’s still my “1st” jump using this setup. Since, I’ve been fine tuning the pockets, making for even more “1st” jumps. Low risk? You bet, but someone was the first, and made up the odds that I took to heart at the door.

Experimenting is when you take what you know and try to apply it in new ways.

Leading edge experimenting is when you have the judgement to take what someone else already knows and try to apply it in new ways.

Bleeding edge experimenting is when you go where no one has gone before.

Stupid-is-as-stupid-does is when you repeat others' experiments, but without the knowledge that went into them. But plenty of people think they can push the envelope without all that tiresome knowledge and practice to know where the old boundaries are.

Hopefully the people who really are figuring out new things have the background to know what's already been tried, what has a lower chance of working, and the knowledgeable reactions to know what to do when their jump didn't quite work out as they thought. Realtime.

I'm all for pushing the limits to explore and expand the possibilities...but if one can't be confident of pulling something off 100 times in a row (or even 1000 times in a row)...you are essentially playing Russian Roulette.

There's living where your being is completely focussed on experiences, your attention doesn't wander, and the intensity leaves a mental image behind with more clarity than film. Your days are filled with new challenges to overcome, each more substantial than the last.

There's existing where you work, eat, sleep, screw, and play like a working dog herding sheep or sniffing for drugs. There are enjoyable moments although you can get through it while half asleep. You need to be half asleep to survive the monotony.

You can live without putting your life in danger. Starting with a business plan, hiring 20 people you'd love to work with, cooking up enough material for a few doctoral disertations, and putting it all together to produce something novel can consume nearly all your attention and focus for years.

While enjoyable simply skydiving isn't enough. I can remember seven jumps over the last decade with the intensity to fit in the "living" category.

Nice cliffs are a lot easier to find than big marketable ideas and the $15M+ in venture capital it can take to make them real.

Where I'm confident in my abilities and living requires accepting statistics which indicate a 1 in 1000 or 100 chance of dying I'll take it (although in those situations you don't have enough data to figure out what the odds really are). I'd much rather be dead tomorrow than exist for 90 years like my grandma,