In New Orleans, Mayoral Race Still Lacks Heft

No candidate or potential candidate has so far galvanized voters or emerged as a front-runner to handle what promises to be a daunting agenda.

CAMPBELL ROBERTSON

NEW ORLEANS — The most noteworthy announcements of the 2010 mayor’s race here have so far come from those declining to be part of it.

Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu counted himself out, as did State Representative Karen Carter Peterson. Same for Arnold Fielkow, the president of the City Council; James Carville, who said he would run if the qualifying rules let him; and, naturally, Brad Pitt.

A few new candidates have been announced over the past few weeks. But as the reality settles in that on May 3, 2010, somebody other than C. Ray Nagin will be mayor, a question hangs over the city: Why do so many people feel like this is not the race the city needs?

“Everyone’s just kind of saying, ‘Where is it?’ ” said Brian J. Brox, a professor of political science at Tulane University. “Where’s the campaign? Where are the serious candidates? Where is everybody?”

Mr. Nagin, who is at the end of his second term, cannot run again. And none of the candidates or potential candidates have galvanized voters or even emerged as an obvious front-runner to handle what promises to be a daunting agenda.

The new mayor will be taking over a City Hall already mired in scandal and turf wars. He or she will need to negotiate for and effectively manage billions of dollars of storm-related federal assistance coming into the city, a duty that will require both ruthlessness and political savvy.

When that money begins running out, as it will in the not-too-distant future, there will most likely still be a recession to deal with. There are also some issues that need addressing in regard to the budget (a projected $68 million shortfall), the Police Department (under several federal investigations), the housing agencies (federal officials are asking questions there, too) and the desperate need for hospitals and clinics.

The stakes are just as high as they were for the 2006 mayoral election, which residents say had a different feel entirely, coming just months after the city was devastated by the floodwaters following Hurricane Katrina. That race was seen as an inflection point in New Orleans’s future, when new leadership could use the disaster as an opportunity to solve many of the city’s longstanding problems.

“Our expectations were not just too high, they were laughably high,” said Elliott Stonecipher, a political analyst based in Shreveport, La.

Four years after Mr. Nagin won that election by beating Mr. Landrieu in a runoff, Mr. Stonecipher said, those expectations have not been met; crime is high, corruption investigations are rampant and economic development has been sluggish. The disappointment is hardly eased by a slate of candidates that has failed to create much excitement.

“I see some legislators; I see some former city officials and/or perennial candidates,” Mr. Stonecipher said. “I cannot tell you how different that reality is than where we were in our now-obvious silliness in 2006.”

It may seem odd for a campaign season that includes the “Brad Pitt for Mayor” movement to be deemed comparatively un-silly.

Mr. Pitt, an occasional resident — who, granted, has used his celebrity to the city’s benefit by devoting a considerable amount of time and energy here as part of his Make It Right organization — has laughed the whole thing off. The movement was actually little more than a Facebook page, a few feature articles in the news media and a brisk T-shirt business. (The “Carl Weathers for Mayor” movement is, alas for his fans, equally fictional.)

But it does tap into a reality about the mood of this election: while New Orleanians say they are looking mainly for a mayor who can get things done, they are also eager for someone they can rally behind.

Mr. Nagin has not managed to succeed on either count. Just how unpopular he is can be gauged by the campaigns of some of those running to replace him.

Edwin R. Murray, a Democratic state senator, is pledging to provide “leadership for a change.” James Perry, executive director of the Greater New Orleans Fair Housing Center, took things a step further. He sued the mayor this summer, claiming Mr. Nagin had violated the city charter by bringing in outside lawyers to deal with the federal investigation into City Hall.

Mr. Nagin is so broadly disliked that his selling point in 2002 — that he could apply the practical knowledge he learned as a cable company executive to the city’s problems — has become a liability for future candidates.

“I’m not voting for a businessman after Nagin,” said John Slade, co-host of a local radio show called “Talking Back and Talking Black,” who said he voted for Mr. Nagin in 2006. “If anyone comes around saying, ‘I want to run the city like a business,’ run. Flee from them.”

Nonetheless, several of the candidates who have surfaced recently are from the private sector, including John Georges, a multimillionaire businessman who has all but formally announced, and Troy Henry, owner of a management consulting firm, who has enlisted the New Orleans-born actor Wendell Pierce as his campaign manager.

Others have acknowledged their interest in running, including Leslie Jacobs, an insurance executive who was a member of the State Board of Elementary and Secondary Education.

In addition to testing the burden of a business résumé, the election will be another look into the city’s complicated racial politics.

The city has a smaller proportion of black residents now than it did before the hurricane; in 2008, 61 percent of the city was black, compared with 67 percent in 2000. Also, a white majority on the City Council and a white district attorney have made some wonder whether New Orleans will have a white mayor for the first time in more than 30 years. But this is still a mostly black city, and the fact that most of its elected officials, here and in Washington, are not black, could make the prospect of a white mayor even less likely.

The late start to the campaign season has left many puzzled, but that tardiness is somewhat built into the system. The election process here is a sprint, and seems to have been devised to give voters the greatest number of reasons to forget that it is taking place.

Candidates do not have to announce until a qualifying period in early December, in the midst of the holiday season. The citywide primary is then held in early February, in the full reel and stagger of the Mardi Gras season. A runoff, if necessary, is held a month later.

The back-loaded timetable is in some ways grounds for hope among voters, and conversations about the race here frequently end with rosy speculation about some surprise development still to come.

Mr. Landrieu or somebody else who has declared a lack of interest in the race may reconsider, some say. One of the announced candidates may turn out to display hitherto unseen leadership qualities. The most intriguing possibility is the last-minute entry of someone who has not yet been considered.

After all, less than three months before winning the 2002 mayoral election, Mr. Nagin was still undeclared — and most of the city did not even know his name.