Friday, 8 January 2016

1pm update - increasingly choppy

The market has seen a minor rally from the morning low of sp'1932, back into the 1940s, but still.. we're net lower on the week by around -5%. As things are, there is no sign of any real bullish capitulation, and the 1920/00 zone remains due.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

As things are, a break <1900 looks increasingly out of range in the current cycle.

Target for next Mon/Tuesday remains 1920/00 zone.. and from there, best guess is a rally of 3-4%.

Sustained action >2000 looks unlikely. On no realistic scenario does a break back above 2040 look possible until the late summer.

*yes, I'm still long TVIX, will hold across weekend, and look to drop next Mon/Tuesday, preferably with VIX 28/30.

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