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Segwit2x: what’s next?

On approximately November 16th, the Segwit2x fork is scheduled to take place. There’s lots of rumors about what might and what might not happen, so let’s present the possible scenarios here.

Bitfinex has created – not for the first time – so called chain split tokens for that event (BT1 and BT2) which seem to be a good way to track the general sentiment towards the event.

So, what might happen on or around November 16th?

The fork activates and miners direct their hashing power to Segwit2x. It becomes the “new Bitcoin” and the new rules become standard.

The fork activates, but only a part of the miners mine Segwit2x. We will get two separate chains which will coexist.

There’s no interest in the Segwit2x fork and it just dies off.

I think the second scenario is the likeliest. Achieving broad consensus is not easy and it rarely happens. So Bitcoin likely stays what it is, and the Segwit2x supporters will keep their chain alive.

But what about my Bitcoins? Are they safe?

If you keep your coins in your local wallet, your coins are safe and you’re free to decide what to do.

If you keep your BTC on an exchange, you trust the exchange to make the right decision for you.

How to trade the BT1 and BT2 chain split tokens?

It’s simple. Go to Bitfinex and visit their token manager. There, you can split your BTC to BT1 and BT2. For every Bitcoin, you will receive one BT1 and one BT2 token, which you can trade there.

The value of BT1 and BT2 should, more or less, add up to the current price of Bitcoin. So, if the current price of BT2 is, say, 15% of Bitcoin, this can be regarded as an indicator that 15% of the community support Segwit2x (but keep in mind that manipulation of these prices is relatively easy, so it might not be an accurate impression).