Table 3 – At Risk Home Totals by State (*The low risk category refers to Category 5 hurricanes, which are not common along the northeastern Atlantic Coast. States in that region are designated as N/A for this category due to the extremely low probability of a Category 5 storm affecting these areas.) (Graphic: Business Wire)

Table 4 – Reconstruction Cost Value of At Risk Homes by State (*The low risk category refers to Category 5 hurricanes, which are not common along the northeastern Atlantic Coast. States in that region are designated as N/A for this category due to the extremely low probability of a Category 5 storm affecting these areas.) (Graphic: Business Wire)

IRVINE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property
information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today
released its 2018
CoreLogic Storm Surge Report, which shows that more than 6.9 million
homes along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are at potential risk of damage
from hurricane storm surge inundation with a total reconstruction cost
value (RCV) of more than $1.6 trillion (Table 1). According to the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 2018
hurricane season is predicted to have near- to above-normal activity.
NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms. Five to
nine of these will develop into hurricanes, and one to four are
predicted to reach Category 3 classification or higher.

The CoreLogic analysis examines risk from hurricane-driven storm surge
for homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines across 19 states, as
well as for 86 metro areas. Homes are categorized by five risk levels:
Low (homes affected only by a Category 5 storm), Moderate (homes
affected by Category 4 and 5 storms), High (homes affected by Category
3, 4 and 5 storms), Very High (homes affected by Category 2, 3, 4 and 5
storms) and Extreme (homes affected by Category 1-5 storms). RCV figures
represent the cost to completely rebuild a property in case of damage –
including labor and materials by geographic location – assuming the
worst-case scenario at 100-percent destruction.

"While industry predictions for this year’s storm season indicate
average activity levels, associated storm surge risk remains an
important consideration for residential and commercial properties in the
19 states analyzed,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at
CoreLogic. “Depending on the location of a storm’s landfall and that
area’s population density and reconstruction costs, lower Category
storms can cause just as much damage as storms in higher categories.”

Regionally, the Atlantic Coast has more than 3.9 million homes at risk
of storm surge with an RCV of more than $1 trillion (Table 2), an
increase of around $30 billion compared to 2017. The Gulf Coast has more
than 3 million homes at risk with over $609 billion in potential
exposure to total destruction damage, with over $16 billion increase
compared to 2017. Areas with less coastal exposure but with lower
elevations that extend inland tend to have more total homes at risk
because the surge water can travel farther inland. Additionally, due to
market conditions and previous storm surge damage, construction costs
can increase despite having a lower number of at-risk homes compared to
other states or Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs).

At the state level, Florida has the most coastal exposure and has the
most susceptibility to storm surge flooding of the 19 states analyzed,
with more than 2.7 million at-risk homes across the five risk categories
(Table 3). Louisiana ranks second with over 817,000 at-risk homes, Texas
ranks third with more than 543,000 at-risk homes, and New Jersey ranks
fourth with over 471,000 at-risk homes. Since the number of homes at
risk strongly correlates with the accompanying RCV, Florida also has the
highest RCV at over $552 billion (Table 4). Notably, New York ranks
second in RCV with over $190 billion, despite its fifth-place ranking in
number of homes at risk, due to the density of the residential
population near the coast and higher construction costs in this state.
Louisiana and New Jersey are also near the top of the list for RCV, with
Louisiana totaling more than $186 billion and New Jersey totaling over
$146 billion. Texas sits in fifth place for RCV, at more than $103
billion.

Due to the concentration of residences in and around large metro areas,
15 CBSAs account for 67.2 percent of the 6.9 million total at-risk homes
and 68.2 percent of the total $1.6 trillion RCV (Table 5). This
reinforces the idea that the location of future storms will be integral
to understanding the potential for catastrophic damage. A low-intensity
storm in a densely populated, residential urban area can do
significantly more damage than a higher-intensity hurricane along a
sparsely inhabited coastline. The Miami metro area, which includes Fort
Lauderdale and West Palm Beach, has the most homes at risk, totaling
over 788,000 with an RCV of more than $156 billion. By comparison, the
New York metro area has slightly fewer homes at risk at just over
726,000, but a significantly higher RCV totaling more than $277 billion,
a 5 percent increase compared to 2017.

Note: The numbers in Tables 1-4 are cumulative, increasing in value
from extreme to low. This is based on the explanation that Category 5
storms are low risk because they are least likely to occur, but will
cause more storm surge flooding inland than higher-risk, lower Category
storms.

Methodology

The analysis in the 2018 CoreLogic Storm Surge Report encompasses
single-family residential structures less than four stories, including
mobile homes, duplexes, manufactured homes and cabins (among other
non-traditional home types). This is not an indication that there will
be no damage to residential units greater than four stories, as there
may be associated wind or debris damage. However, including all
high-rise residential units in the analysis would inaccurately skew the
actual number of houses at risk, as elevated structures are not as
susceptible to damage from surge waters.

Year-over-year changes between the number of homes at risk and the RCV
can be the result of several variables, including new home construction,
improved public records, enhanced modeling techniques, fluctuation in
labor, equipment and material costs – even a potential rise in sea
level. For that reason, direct year-over-year comparisons should be
warily considered. To estimate the value of property exposure of
single-family residences, CoreLogic uses its RCV methodology which
estimates the cost to rebuild the home in the event of a total loss and
is not to be confused with property market values or new construction
cost estimation. Reconstruction cost estimates more accurately reflect
the actual cost of damage or destruction of residential buildings that
would occur from hurricane-driven storm surge, since they include the
cost of materials, equipment and labor needed to rebuild. These
estimates also factor in geographical pricing differences (although
actual land values are not included in the estimates). The values in
this report are based on 100 percent (or “total”) destruction of the
residential structure. Depending on the amount of surge water from a
given storm, there may be less than 100 percent damage to the residence,
which would result in a lower realized RCV.

To evaluate storm surge risk at the local level, CoreLogic uses the
designation of Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), which are often
referred to as metropolitan areas (>50,000 people), or micropolitan
areas (<50,000 people), as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and
Budget. The CBSA represents an urban center and the adjacent regions
that are tied to that center socioeconomically. The specific areas
identified in this report are named by primary urban center, though each
may contain additional urban areas.

The high-resolution, granular modeling for underwriting individual risk
allows enhanced understanding of the risk landscape and damage
potentials. CoreLogic offers high-resolution solutions with a view of
hazard and vulnerability consistent with the latest science for more
realistic risk differentiation. The high-resolution storm surge modeling
using 10m digital elevation model (DEM) and parcel-based geocoding
precision from PxPoint™
facilitates a realistic view of the risk.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the
primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be
resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including
publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company
without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used
for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as
coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with
broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first
reference of the data. If the data is illustrated with maps, charts,
graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on
screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the
data, contact Alyson Austin at newsmedia@corelogic.com
or Caitlin New at corelogic@ink-co.com.
Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission
of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. This data is
compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary
analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information,
analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined
data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5
billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage
of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy,
location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets
CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance,
capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to
clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory
and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and
manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk.
Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America,
Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, RQE, and PxPoint are trademarks of
CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.