Friday, January 27, 2017

NBC’s cable business channel, CNBC, once had a program on
Frito Lay, the leading potato chip provider in the United States. Apparently, there is a handful of Frito Lay
processing plants on the continent. The
show visited the southeast area plant that is staffed by just a few
people. The plant is fully automated. One person inspects large batches of potato
trucks before their potatoes are accepted for processing. There is a small group supporting the
machines and some more getting the product out the door. The point is that just a handful of people
can feed almost about a quarter of our population’s needs for potato
chips. It is a pristine example of automation in our
society, and the appropriate economic question to ask of these dedicated men
and women at the Frito Lay plant is how many potato chips can they eat?

Before we talk about automation in the modern day, lets
trace its development from its beginnings and that starts with Henry Ford.

Ford was a pioneer.He developed the beginning of modern day mass production processes.He implemented the moving assembly line that
brought the product to each worker, each of whom did a repetitive task on the
product.They did their respective
tasks over and over again until they were bored, and sore, and achy.

Ford believed in his workers.He developed a town with houses they could live
in that was a short distances to the plant.A famous story is a worker who spent all day on his back attaching some
part of the drive train to the chassis of each car.The worker would come home day after day and
stare into the fire in his fireplace and just try to recover.He did nothing else.He was physically exhausted.What Ford did not know is that each worker
became a machine when in reality they were humans.Walter Reuther would realize this fact and organized
the United Auto Workers.This led to a
lot of violence on the UAW’s path to full recognition in the 1940’s when Henry
Ford II took over.

Ford believed in Taylorism, or what we know as Scientific Management,
which is defined as one best way to perform each task.The process that was most efficient was also
the most profitable.Again, the worker
became like a machine through the eyes of Ford and his application of Scientific
Management.Ford also believed in
sourcing parts to companies that were in the neighborhood of the plant.The beginnings of just-in-time parts
inventory had its intellectual foundations at Henry Ford’s production plants in
Dearborn Michigan.

But Ford also realized something that his peers at the other
car companies did not.The workers had
to be paid enough to afford what it is that they were building.He paid each worker $5 a day, which was a lot
for a laborer in those days.Ford
workers could afford to buy Ford cars.This is a major economic reality.One must have economic consumption in order to have economic
production.Ford could not get rich
unless his workers and others bought his cars.Ford’s business model provided for this.Hence, each worker could afford to buy a least one car.

The Japanese studied Henry Ford’s production processes when
they began manufacturing in the 1950’s.They took the organization practices of Ford and his protégé, William
Knudsen, and applied them to their own situation.Soon they advanced local suppliers into
JIT.They also noted that humans
producing things was problematic, especially when it came to quality.So they adopted the quality management
philosophy of W. Edwards Deming in the 1980’s, and used sensors and computers
to collect statistical information on quality parameters in their cars and
other products they manufactured.This
allowed them to identify problems in their products that were in the most need
of fixing and they fixed them.During
the 80’s, people would marvel at the fit and finish of Japanese cars and they
cursed the problems with American ones.Fortunately, American car companies have become leaders in production
techniques in the last couple of decades.

In 1969 American Machine and Foundry purchased
Harley-Davidson, America’s premiere motorcycle manufacturer.They streamlined production, failed to
observed quality, and developed a reputation for bad bikes.Sales plummeted.In 1981, the company was sold to a group of
13 investors that included Willies G. Davidson, a grandson of one of the H-D
co-founders.JIT was introduced, inventory
was strictly observed, and robots and computer driven processes were introduced.Quality was improved and H-D was profitable
again.Prior to the buyout, fifty plus
people machined the transmission housings with quality problems in a
substantial portion of the product.After the buyout, the housings were manufactured by 3 people using
computerized machines with quality problems in less that 0.01% of the product.

Now we come to a Frito Lay plant that is run by a handful of
people who can supply the needs of at least 20% of the country.Can they consume all that they produce?The Ford workers could consume a good chunk
of what they produce, but I am not so sure of the Frito Lay workers.Their collective salaries couldn’t even buy a
small chunk of the product.People need
to produce in order to consume.Computers
and robots can’t consume what they produce.This disconnect has tremendous economic implications.

CKE President Andrew Puzder has been appointed to the post
of Labor Secretary.CKE runs the Carl’s
Jr. and Hardy’s fast food restaurants.Apparently, Puzder does not believe in a $15 an hour minimum wage, and
in order to cope with the coming wage standard, Puzder was moving CKE towards
automating many of food preparation and serving functions in its
restaurants.In short, CKE is adapting
to higher labor costs with higher capital investment.In today’s economic culture, this is understandable.
It also begs the question that is can
those most likely to consume a CKE product, namely CKE’s own employees, more
easily or less easily afford to buy that product?

Dick Durbin is the current senior Senator from Illinois in
the US Senate. He was preceded by the
legendary Paul Simon, who was preceded by Charles Percy, who was preceded by
Paul Douglas, a very notable individual outside the Senate.He enlisted in the US Marines at the age of
50 during the Korean War, one of the oldest recruits in its history, and rose
from a private to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, eventually earning a purple
heart.But the experience I want to
discuss is his contributions to economics.Paul Douglas was an economics professor for years at the University of
Chicago, and a good one too, capping his career as President of the American
Economic Association in 1947.

In 1928, Paul Douglas and Charles Cobb published an article
that proposed a production function that is widely used today.The Cobb-Douglas Production Function reads as
follows.

Y = ALaK1-a

The statement reads as follows.Total production is equal to a scalar factor
(A) times labor (L) to an exponent of less that one (a) times capital (K) to a
complementary exponent (1-a).What is
important about this relationship is that capital and labor can be viewed on a
continuum.The more labor you use to
produce an item, the less capital you need.The reverse is also true.The
more capital you use in production, the less labor you need.Economists often graph this function with
labor placed on the horizontal axis (X) and capital on the vertical (Y).If you can imagine an inverse quarter circle
hugging the two axes at their end points, then you can see how an increase in
capital reduces the use of labor graphically.

Even though there are other production equations that
economists use, the Cobb-Douglas function is the most commonly used function.If one draws a Cobb-Douglas production graph,
it is important to take the labor number from the labor axis into a separate
calculation.Total labor hours times
average wage gives total consumption from the everyday workforce. When you shrink total labor hours due to
automation, you shrink consumption, which eventually shrinks production, even
if it is automated.

This whole explanation brings us back to the basic question
at the top of the post.When firms like
Frito Lay and CKE automate their production, they inherently reduce the amount
of consumption that the public can support.When Frito Lay automates their plant, then other potato chip providers
will automate theirs since they need to match Frito Lay in cost
structures.If CKE automates, then other
fast food chains will also automate.The
loss of purchasing power and consumption at the lower levels of our workforce
will continue to widen the wealth effects between lower and upper level strata
in our economy at an accelerated rate.

In essence, companies are shooting themselves in the foot
when they automate at the expense of local jobs.In the case of Frito Lay, a few people can
provide enough product for a quarter of the US population.If the few people who operate the plant could
physically eat all the product they make then we could visualize sufficient
trades of chips for televisions, iPhones, computers, cars, houses, and other
baskets of products.But there are not enough
wages within this small group of high earners to support these product baskets
when we factor in the larger population.If all our industries replicated Frito Lay and CKE, then we as a
population will be basically poor.The
excess product from all the automated plants will have to be exported or be
scrapped because we, as a population, could not afford the product.

There are lots of lost plants that were moved overseas to
take advantage of low-cost foreign labor.If we are repatriating these plants because we can produce an equal or
better product due to automation, then we can add a handful of new employees
for each new automated plant we place online thereby marginally increasing our
workforce each time.But if we are
reducing our existing workforce with automated plants, then we are reducing our
purchasing power, our consumption, and eventually the markets of those
manufacturers that want us to buy their products.In short, they could be shooting themselves
in the foot through all the automation.

This is just one issue with the new labor economics that
Trump is proposing.Additional issues
will be discussed in future posts, and these issues cannot be isolated from one
another.Some posts will discuss their
independencies with one another.For
now, it is fair to conclude that not all automation is good, and that we have
to understand where the labor will come from to buy all the goods that the
automated plants produce.

About Me

Who am I? I am a guy who has had a number of jobs in both the private and public sectors, most in finance, planning, and management. My educational background includes studies in public administration, public policy, finance and accounting, computer systems, mathematics, and recently, economics. I grew up as a conservative Republican who loved Nixon up until he broke my heart. I have also liked some Democrats such as John Kennedy and Birch Baye. This is my first attempt ever at trying to be public with my opinion. I would prefer spending my time taking classes, learning new things, enjoying close relationships, and looking forward. But if more of us from the old middle would be more vocal, perhaps our politics will change. My educational background includes a PhD in Public Administration with emphases in public finance and public policy, a Masters of Accounting, and other degrees. My experience includes project management positions with a defense company, a computer company, and a transportation company. I have also taught at several universities and colleges in two states.