My 2016 Oscar predictions

Will Win: Spotlight. I think (and hope) a lot of the hype behind The Revenant is empty in this category.

Should Win:Mad Max: Fury Road is my top pick in this category, though Brooklyn, Bridge of Spies and Spotlight are all worthy contenders.

Left out: I was tempted to put “Not Carol” eight times for the list of nominees. I’d have also included either Magic Mike XXL, Diary of a Teenage Girl, Results or Unfriended in this category instead of Room, The Martian, The Revenant and The Big Short. (The Big Short is solid, for the record. I just think the others I mentioned are better).

Will Win: Iñárritu. I think “You guys The Revenant was really difficult to make” is going to turn out to be a disgustingly effective strategy to win it trophies.

Should Win: George Miller. Not only was Mad Max: Fury Road difficult to make (P.S. pretty much all movies are), but it’s a wild, ferociously great film.

Left out: How did Lenny Abrahamson make it into this category ahead of Todd Haynes? Room is the sloppiest of all the Best Picture nominees, and its wildly inconsistent visual design almost completely ruins it. I’d also remove Iñárritu and add in Leo Gabriadze for Unfriended.

Will Win: DiCaprio. It’s his year. I’m not really mad about it. He should have been rewarded for one of his Scorsese collaborations, especially The Wolf of Wall Street. I hope Kate Winslet wins in her category too just for the pictures.

Should Win: Leo or Fassy. This is the weakest category of the night.

Left out: Michael B. Jordan for Creed is a glaring omission here, especially considering Cranston and Damon took a slot that could have been his. Had Jordan been nominated he would easily be my favorite in the category. I did not see The Danish Girl and have no intention of doing so, so I’d take out Redmayne and include Channing Tatum for Magic Mike XXL.

Will Win: Brie Larson. She’s good in Room despite the movie fighting against her at almost every turn.

Should Win: This is the strongest acting category overall. Blanchett, Rampling and Ronan are all incredible in their respective films. I’d pick Blanchett if I had to choose one.

Left out: Rooney Mara should have joined Blanchett in this category, and the two should share the trophy. There are plenty of worth performances that could have replaced Lawrence and Larson. Greta Gerwig for Mistress America, Teyonah Parris for Chi-raq, Meryl Streep for Ricki and the Flash, Blythe Danner for I’ll See You In My Dreams, Bel Powley for The Diary of a Teenage Girl, and Charlize Theron for Mad Max: Fury Road, starters.

Left out: Mistress America has one of the sharpest, funniest screenplays in recent memory. Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig not only should be nominated here, but they should win ten times over. Andrew Bujalski should also have been in this category for Results.