Members of a pro-Russian self defence unit stand in
formation as they swear an oath to the pro-Russia Crimea regional
government in Simferopol March 13, 2014. Ahead of a referendum on
Sunday when this Ukrainian region votes to decide whether to come
under Moscow's rule, thousands of masked Russian troops have
fanned out across the peninsula.Vasily Fedosenko / Reuters

Tensions are rising in Ukraine and Russia as Crimea is set to
hold a fixed
referendum on Sunday about whether or not the region will
break away and join Russia.

In a showing of strength, and excessive intimidation, Russia has
started holding military exercises Thursday near the border with
Ukraine in its Southern Military District.

Russia has deployed a force of 220,000 troops, 1,800 tanks and
over 400 helicopters close to Ukraine's border. Its neighbor has
about 41,000 troops, of which only 6,000 were “really combat
ready,” Ukraine's acting Defense Minister Igor Tenyukh told the
national parliament Tuesday, UNIAN news agency reported.

In an attempt to bolster its forces, Ukraine has voted to create
a 60,000
strong National guard, which will focus on border and
state security as well as the elimination of terrorist
groups.

The group is expected to be drawn from activists
associated with the ouster of Yanukovych and the country's
military academies. Almost none of these soldiers will
have had actual combat experience.

Despite Ukraine's ragtag army, it wouldn't just roll over if a
war starts. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, conventional war
would likely not last long. Instead, the Russians could expect a
drawn out
guerrilla war similar to what the Soviet Union experienced in
Afghanistan.

The Ukrainians would not have any other choice. As Ukrainian
Defense Minister Tenyukh said,
“this [Russian] force by several times exceeds the armed forces
of Ukraine."