Friday, August 27, 2010

Taking nominations

We haven't done a vote on where we poll in quite a long time. That's more of an early cycle thing where we're trying to figure out which races are competitive and which aren't, and now that we pretty much know the answer to that we're tightening the rotation of states we poll and focusing heavily on places where there is a tight race for both Governor and the Senate.

But we'll do one next week: give us your nominations on where to poll next week and we'll pick finalists and put it to a vote starting Monday. We're not going to do any House races- just states that have a Governor's and/or Senate race in 2010. Fire away!

Maryland's 3rd Congressional District! While it has a well-known, dynasty incumbent, it is fairly competitive on paper (only D+6). I would like to see if the favored Republican (Jim Wilhelm) is making any inroads there...

Alaska: Sen/Gov - Joe Miller's likely shocking upset in the GOP primary could throw the Senate race into contention. It'd be great to have a baseline on this race. The governor's race could be competitive too, there's just too little Alaska polling. Also, Palin favorables in her home state would be fascinating. Did she put Miller over the top?

Nevada: Sen/Gov - Sure, the governor's race is likely a foregone conclusion, but the Senate race needs to be polled more. Angle looks like she may have recovered slightly from Reid's initial onslaught, but Reid still seems to lead, barely.

Georgia: Sen/Gov - The governor's race should be very competitive, and the senate race could be a sleeper, though that seems unlikely now.

You guys have shied away from congressional races. Yet most senate races are well polled and congressional races aren't. American Action Forum has been doing a lot of the polling and they are a Republican firm.

In the absence of congressional races, I'd say the Delaware and New Hampshire Republican senate primaries. With the results of the Alaska race, it's possible Castle or Ayotte might be in trouble.

If you were to do House districts, poll out here in California. There are eight districts potentially in play (3, 11, 18, 20, 44, 45, 47, 50), yet there's been no congressional polling.They're divided between GOP and Democrat. It's possible the Republicans might have a net of around 39 seats and then lose it when California results come in.

Poll a national sales tax (VAT) vs an annual national wealth tax targeting the very affluent (over 50M in net worth). Also, poll the perception of public service unions. I'm afraid that the Dems are going to be negatively impacted by its close ties to the unions this fall.

Maine. No polling there. The right wing teabagger is LePage, and one has to wonder if even Maine will allow these kinds of political positions this year.

Georgia. No polling since the primary. How's Barnes, who's a good Democratic recruit doing?

South Carolina. Absolutely nothing since the long ago primary. Does Vincent Sheheen, who's been gathering the business community endorsement, stand a chance in the governor's race? What do people think of Alvin Greene?

Alaska. Now this is the obvious one. There's no reason not to. It hasn't been polled at all except by you in February.

It would be nice to know what you are doing for Kos, that way we are not listing useless choices. I'm sure you won't commission a poll for Kos of one state, and then do one independent poll.

Alaska - with and without Murkowski on the ballot as the Libertarian candidate. Murkowski had a 20-point lead on McAdams in early polling; it'll be interesting to see how much of Murkowski's support transitions to Miller and how much finds him too radical to be palatable.

Kentucky - PPP hasn't done this one in a while, and it'd be interesting to see if Aqua Buddha and Rand Paul's on-camera denials of a drug problem in Kentucky are hurting him in PPP's numbers. In the last two polls Ras (n=500) had a ten-point Paul lead, while CN2 Politics (n=803) had a 1-point Conway lead.

Texas Governor might be good to see; it's only had two polls, both Ras, in the last two months.

I like seeing polling for New Hampshire, but right at the moment the most interesting not-recently-polled races there are the congressional primaries. You did Delaware three weeks ago, so that's fairly recent, and polling picked up in Nevada, too.

Wisconsin. Ras has been the only one polling it, Johnson and Feingold and Barrett and Walker have been aggressively engaging in TV ad wars. Numbers may have moved since then. New Mexico. Only 1 poll since June, this weeks Rasmussen poll. Again, both candidates have released a barrage of ads and can also poll house races.

I am interested in how Castle fairs against O'Donnell in the GOP primary, and how O'Donnell fairs against Coons. The Tea Party Express is about to launch an ad campaign for her, and they have had considerable results in GOP primaries in Nevada and Alaska.

AK-Sen - both a two-way between Miller and McAdams and a three-way with Murkowski as the Libertarian nominee (unlikely, but it would be interesting to see how that would play out... perhaps a good showing in a public poll would push her into the race which would be preferable to having Miller win the seat).

DE-Sen - Coons has been losing ground against Castle, but has been gaining against O'Donnell. With the recent victory by Miller, could she beat uber-moderate Castle?

I think the biggest race with the most national implications would be California. California has been a deep blue state for at least two decades. If Sen. Barbara Boxer goes down, and Whitman beats out Brown for the Governor's mansion, it is going to have major repercussions across the land.

The downside to doing the Bear State is there are already a number of firms polling it.

Another major race you might consider is the Washington state US Senate race. You haven't been there since the primaries. They've got the mini-drama going on there with the loser Didlier refusing to endorse Rossi unless Dino meets certain requirements, and Rossi refusing to comply. That should be fun to poll. :-)

And, of course, there is the Alaska entertainment where Miller may have won, and Murkowski exploring running on the Libertarian ticket.

Anyway, those are three states that are outside of your usual radar range you may wish to consider.

Arizona should be fun. While most polls show Brewer solidly ahead only two pollsters have done the state since May (just Ras and the Rocky Mountain poll), so it's very worth seeing if you find something they don't. Plus, a generic ballot would be good in a state where half it's Congressional races are competitive.

How foolish must leftists feel that they opposed the Restoring Honor 8/28 Rally? It is more obvious than ever that conservatives and Republicans are the ones who do honor to the legacy of Martin Luther King.

Race-baiting hucksters like Sharpton, Jackson, Rangel, and Waters ought to be ashamed of themselves. But of course, they obvious have no shame. If they had any sense (on race relations or any other issue), they would be Republicans. Throughout all of our history up to the current day and into the foreseeable future, Republicans have always been the honorable party on race... and Democrats have always been the shameless hucksters that bring disgrace upon themselves with their lies and demagoguery.

It's a five way race in Maine, although two of the three independent candidates have little hope. Race features Tea Party Republican prone to outrageous statements; longtime Dem legislator (former House Speaker, current Senate president); and three independents: Washington lawyer who hasn't really lived in Maine in over twenty years, a local business man who has dumped $500K of his own cash into his campaign, and local business recruiter with little money.

Poll Maine. There are several counter-indicators on recent political trends since the last election - gay marriage was defeated in referendum but so were several tax-cutting referendums in the same year. So far only Rasmussen has polled the gubernatorial race, so it will be interesting to see if you match up with them at all.

I agree with the majority. I would like to see some numbers from Maine. If Rasmussen is correct then this is a lean R race. I have trouble believing that and would like to see more polling. Also SD-AL and Gov. Rasmussen also shows constant Republican leads there in the House race and I would like to see some other data. The Governors race would be a nice bonus. I know you can’t but I wish you could poll Indiana. :( Thanks!!!!