Abstract:

This thesis describes the development
of a computer simulation model
for the
investigation
of airliner
fire
accident safety.
The
aim of the work
has been to create a computer-based analysis tool that generates
representative aircraft accident scenarios and then simulates their outcome
in terms of
passenger injuries
and
fatalities. The details
of the accident scenarios are
formulated
to closely match the type of events that are
known to have
occurred
in
aircraft
accidents over the last 40
years.
This information has been obtained
by
compiling a
database
and undertaking
detailed
analysis of approximately
200
airliner
fire
accidents. In
addition to utilising
historical data, the modelling work
has incorporated
many of the key findings
obtained
from
experimental research undertaken
by the
world's air safety community.
An
unusual
feature of the simulation process is that all critical aspects of the accident
scenario have been analysed and catered for in the formative
stages of the programme
development. This has
enabled complex effects, such as cabin crash
disruption,
impact trauma injuries, fire
spread, smoke
incapacitation
and passenger evacuation to
be
simulated
in
a
balanced and
integrated manner.
The
study
is intended to further the general appreciation and understanding of the
complex events that lead to fatalities in
aircraft
fire
accidents.
This is
achieved
by
analysing all contributory
factors that are
likely to arise
in
real
fire
accident scenarios
and undertaking quantitative risk assessment through the use of novel simulation
methods. Future development
of the research could potentially enable the undertaking
of a systematic exploration and appraisal of the effectiveness of
both
current and
future
aircraft
fire
safety policies.