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Turkey-Armenian pact undermined by Karabakh dispute

Turkey and Armenia signed a landmark peace accord on Saturday (10 October) to restore ties and open their shared border after a century of hostility stemming from the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman forces in the First World War. But the next day a speech by Turkey's prime minister made the agreement seem problematic.

Turkey and Armenia signed an accord on Saturday in Zurich, aimed at restoring ties and opening their shared border. Last-minute disagreements delayed the signing ceremony for more than three hours, forcing US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to engage in intense talks to salvage a deal.

In a further twist in the tale, Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Armenia must withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan to assure his parliament's approval for the agreement.

"Turkey cannot take a positive step towards Armenia unless Armenia withdraws from Azerbaijani land [...] if that issue is solved our people and our parliament will have a more positive attitude towards this protocol and this process," Erdogan told a party congress in Ankara.

The Turkish and Armenian parliaments must approve the accord in the face of opposition from nationalists on both sides and an Armenian diaspora which insists Turkey acknowledge the killings of up to 1.5 million Armenians during World War One as genocide.

"We will bring the protocol to parliament but parliament has to see the conditions between Azerbaijan and Armenia to decide whether this protocol can be implemented," Erdogan said.

Turkey cut ties and shut its border with Armenia in 1993 in support of Turkic-language Azerbaijan, which was then fighting a losing battle against Armenian separatists in Karabakh.

In his comments, Erdogan looked to reassure ally Azerbaijan, which reacted angrily to the deal, saying it could threaten security and "cast a shadow" over its relations with Ankara.

"The normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia before the withdrawal of Armenian troops from occupied Azeri territory is in direct contradiction to the national interests of Azerbaijan," the Azeri Foreign Ministry said on Sunday.

In a strongly-worded statement, the ministry said the deal "casts a shadow over the fraternal relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey," which have historical roots.

In a statement on Sunday Lavrov welcomed the accord, saying Russia was happy and would lend support.

"The essence of the documents is evidence of both countries' firm resolve to do their part [...] Not one of the steps can be interpreted as damaging to any third party," he said.

If the agreement comes into effect, it would boost EU candidate Turkey's diplomatic clout in the volatile South Caucasus, a transit corridor for oil and gas to the West.

Turkish officials told Reuters the two sides had many disagreements over statements each was due to make in Zurich, including oblique references to the Karabakh conflict. In the end, neither Davutolgu nor Nalbadian made public statements.

Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Media Institute in Yerevan, said in reaction to Erdogan's speech: "The Turkish side needs to play to its domestic audience. Erdogan and other political figures have made such statements often enough [...] It's a fact that neither the word Karabakh nor Azerbaijan appears in the documents that were signed."

Although landlocked Armenia stands to make big gains, opening its impoverished economy to trade and investment, Armenia's leader Serzh Sarksyan faces protests at home and from the huge Armenian diaspora, which views the thaw with suspicion.

Background

Hundreds of thousands of Armenians died during forced removals in 1915 by the Ottoman army from what is now Eastern Turkey, but Turkey denies that the move constituted genocide.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 to lend support to its traditional Muslim ally Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Armenia has controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, which lies wholly within Azerbaijan, since a war was fought over the landlocked region between 1988 and 1994, leaving at least 6,000 dead. A ceasefire brokered by Russia has held since 1994.

In August 2008, the US, France and Russia (co-chairs of the so-called 'OSCE Minsk' group) began to negotiate a full settlement of the conflict, proposing a referendum on the status of the territory.

The effort culminated in the signature in Moscow by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and his Azeri colleague Ilham Aliyev of an agreement to hold talks over a political settlement.

The stand-off between Turkey and Armenia has destabilised the energy-rich Caucasus region, isolated impoverished Armenia and obstructed Turkey's efforts to join the EU.

Amid EU and US pressure on Turkey to reopen its border with Armenia, last April the countries' foreign ministries engaged in official talks to restore ties (EurActiv 23/04/09).

On 1 September, Turkey and Armenia issued a joint statement, agreeing joint steps to overcome a history of animosity which stems from the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during the First World War (EurActiv 01/09/09).