Wow. So they really do expect ultra-regression. I'm shocked. I would have expected a post-regression Pittsburgh to be a middle-of-the-pack team, not a bottom-ten bunch. There are just too many other teams in baseball that really aren't very good.

So -7.7 Wins from those guys regressing, then another -1.6 for losing Burnett, and you're at -9.3. They won 94 games last year, but only 88 games by Pythagorean record, so if you subtract the 9 wins from that they are at 79 wins, close to PECOTA's 78.