Welcome to the second season (!) of Raptors Reasonablists with Eric Koreen and Blake Murphy. Throughout the year, lead NBA writer Koreen and regular contributor Murphy discuss hot-button issues surrounding the Raptors, but with an even-keeled approach in pursuit of finding reasonable middle ground. If we have faith in anything, it is that reasonable middle grounds lead to: a) workable long-term solutions; b) increased empathy and understanding for others; and c) more wins — at least more wins when they truly matter — probably. We hold these truths to be self-evident, and we hold these truths to be good truths.

KOREEN: Do you hear that, Blake? Do you hear the sirens? Do you hear them blaring? Are they the opening notes to Sloan’s sublime “Money City Maniacs,” a fixture played at an intolerable volume during critical situations of Raptors games at the Air Canada Centre? No. (Yes.) They are actually the sirens calling the Raptors Reasonablists to action, just as the free agency moratorium comes to an end and deals can become official. The Raptors are in a bit of a financial and roster-building pickle, and damn it, Blake, let’s make some sense of it.

Even still, they are sitting, conservatively, $13-million above the $119.2-million luxury tax threshold, with few means of adding to their roster. And the means that they do have a) are unlikely to add a piece of much utility; and b) will be prohibitively costly at this moment, since it will just send them further into the increasingly punitive luxury tax.

“Big deal,” you, our loyal readers, might say. “The Raptors are owned by two corporate monoliths, and should pay into the luxury tax.” While I do not necessarily disagree with you, this is as much about the Raptors acquiring the means to cobble together the best possible roster as it is about saving your two favourite telecom companies some money. And the Raptors can only gain meaningful flexibility if they move some expensive (and in some cases, potentially redundant or outmoded) pieces: Cory Joseph, DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas. Meanwhile, although nearly every marquee free agent or trade target went East to West or stayed West, Gordon Hayward went the opposite direction, from Utah to *shudders* Boston.

So let me channel my inner Kent Brockman, and ask you this: Blake, would you say it’s time for everyone to panic?

The NBA’s power structure more or less dictates the need to spend heavily on stars at the top. For legitimate contenders, that’s not as big of an issue, because there’s more justification to spend deep into the luxury tax and because it’s easier to get the NBA’s middle-class market to sign on cheaper deals with the lure of a ring. The unfortunate reality for the league’s second tier, where the Raptors reside, is that spending at the top and not yet being in the position to land quality veterans for discount prices makes spending in the middle extremely prohibitive, with less logic behind an exorbitant tax bill.

The lower cap and tax numbers don’t help, but what I think has mostly happened is that the hypothetical future from February is now the present. Losing Tucker and Patterson hurts from a defensive intelligence and versatility perspective, but it was always likely at least one left, and that the team would be tight on money to fortify. It’s just, now we all have to look at the depth chart as-is, and it’s not incredibly inspiring (though it should be noted that despite two subtractions, the Raptors will have a full season of Ibaka, a presumably healthy Lowry, and some internal development from one of the youngest back-ends in the league).

Anyway, all of that is to say, this was a long-time coming as the cost of retaining three stars at market rate, and if there’s a stark reason for panic, it’s the apparent lack of trade value the Raptors’ three pieces hold. Want to add to this roster? It’s going to cost a ton in luxury tax unless you unload a piece elsewhere. Want to just lessen the tax hit? Your depth chart is going to look even thinner. Everything kind of flows from which salary they shed and how. I guess before we talk specific targets or worry about the state of the East, I should gauge your confidence that the Raptors can even move one of those three in a palatable deal? It guides any discussion from here.

KOREEN: Masai Ujiri is an imaginative executive, and new general manager Bobby Webster (32, but older than me, YES!!!) knows his way around a collective bargaining agreement, even if the one he helped draw up when he worked for the NBA has been modified, should help the Raptors make a deal if there is one to be made.

I am just increasingly nervous about their ability to pull this off. It is nice that Carroll’s contract runs for just two more years, but he is being paid nearly twice the full mid-level exception, and is a below-average rotation player with injury concerns. He will require a first-round pick to move, at least.

As for Valanciunas, I still think he could have a lot of utility in the NBA, especially if a team used him more optimally (headlining a second unit, in more pick-and-rolls where a pass was an actual consideration). The market for traditional centres is just lacking, though, to the point where I wonder if Phoenix’s Alex Len, a restricted free agent, might ultimately accept the $4.2-million qualifying offer and see if the market is better next year when he would become unrestricted. (Although, I’m skeptical that would work out for him very well.)

I think they could move Joseph, which is fine, because I think Delon Wright is ready to be a full-time backup point guard. The Knicks, Hawks and Suns all seem like logical landing places for him. Of course, moving Joseph, who makes the least of the three players, does the least for their flexibility.

I wrote about the teams that might have cap space to loan out on Thursday, and they clearly have their own needs and desires. We really have no idea how many teams will be truly committed to taking on contracts in exchange for a goodie or two. I feel confident Atlanta and Phoenix will get there; as for the other teams I mentioned, it’s a lot more dicey for varying reasons. A few more teams will end up there, because there is value to be gained by taking on that position. I’m just not sure exactly which teams they will end up being.

More to the point, knowing Ujiri’s philosophy, I wonder how open he will ultimately be to moving future first-round picks. If he does it, it will be through gritted teeth. I think ultimately he will have to — this roster is not balanced enough — but it will be one of his least-favourite days on the job. Can you imagine a scenario in which Ujiri just says, “Screw it, we’re rolling with this team and I’m keeping my picks?”

I’ll leave you to go into specifics on players, but it seems to me their biggest need is going to be some kind of combo forward who can space the floor. (OK, I’ll name one player who might ultimately be out of their price range: Ersan Ilyasova.) Do you disagree with that general notion?

MURPHY: Quickly, on each. I really can’t see Carroll moving at this point. He’s going to cost a first and the team is suddenly thinner than anticipated on forwards, shooters, and defenders, all of which Carroll is. Ostensibly. Joseph, too, is tough, because while maybe you net an asset back (it doesn’t sound like it based on the current market), all he gets you is tax relief — you don’t open up the full mid-level by shedding him alone, so again you’re more asset poor.

Valanciunas has long been the most interesting name, because of his age, production in a moderate role, and any perceived upside he has left. He’s probably the best bet to go, if a market develops. But similar to your “screw it” question, can you see a scenario in which the Raptors come back with the same big-man rotation? It’s obviously an imperfect allocation of resources (salary and lottery pick), but is Ujiri really going to feel he HAS to shed Valanciunas? Ibaka is better at centre, unquestionably, but moving Valanciunas opens a hole at the power forward, and I could kind of see them running back the bigs and just deploying them differently.

Is that a possibility, in your mind? It’s hard to see, but it’s equally hard to see Ujiri shedding real assets (picks) to unload other real assets (rotation players), stripping the team’s ability to continue building a pipeline of inexpensive young talent via the draft for the next few years. Further to that, could you see them starting out this way and then using the season to continue evaluating and hoping a market for one of the three materializes? (The tax bill is calculated based on the salary sheet on the day of Game 82. Waiting risks handing even more leverage to teams with cap space by the day, and the Raptors would surely like to know which player is outbound so they can plan their roster and defence accordingly. But it’s a question.)

I’m growing a little skeptical Ujiri can pull off a Ujiri-style trade victory. This is escape artist territory.

As for a target, it depends mostly on who they move. If they move Valanciunas, your evaluation of their needs is pretty bang on. They’re high on Pascal Siakam, and they’re encouraged by his improvements as a 3-point shooter, per a source. Outside of him, though, you’re looking at Bruno Caboclo (be still, my heart), a post-injury OG Anunoby, and Carroll at the four. Move someone other than Valanciunas or stand pat, though, and then I think they can get less narrow with their focus and aim for anyone who can contribute at both ends, prioritizing versatility in the event more moves are to come (looking at you, C.J. Miles). Ilysoava is solid. Maybe Denver likes a salary-neutral Joseph-for-Darrell Arthur swap. Gerald Henderson and Anthony Tolliver are names of varying degrees of fit and cost.

I’m just kind of throwing out names for you to bounce back, some of them more inspiring than others. I’d imagine the Raptors have done something similar, albeit more structured, for each exception band potentially available to them.

KOREEN: Your question up above is an interesting one, and I don’t think we can possibly know the answer. Ujiri has said, publicly, that he has permission from MLSE to go into the luxury tax. Good. Fine. Great. He has never said if there are ever any conditions on that from ownership. The long-held assumption is that he could go into it for a championship-contending team, which this is likely not. Again, that is a hypothesis, not a fact.

The problem with staying this far over the tax is it will not get any better next year. Joseph might opt out of his contract (we’ll see), but Norman Powell will be a restricted free agent, unless they extend him beforehand (which I know is unlikely for boring reasons). Regardless, he will no longer be on a rookie-scale deal, and the Raptors presumably will want him around. The cap is unlikely to rise dramatically, unless every team starts selling space on their jerseys to sponsors for more than the reported $5-million annually the Raptors are getting from Sun Life Financial. So I guess it is tough for me to envision the Raptors being cool with the status quo, because there are no signs that it will become better in 12 months time.

As for Valanciunas and the frontcourt specifically, well, Ujiri hates to make moves from a position of weakness, which he is currently in. I would bet he might be able to talk himself into keeping the frontcourt in tact heading into October, but I’m just not sure that will ultimately serve them well. Ibaka struggled next to Nikola Vucevic in Orlando and Valanciunas in Toronto. The league is getting quicker and more capable from deep. I don’t expect any of those trends to reverse. And I don’t like the idea of limiting the opportunity for some of the kids up front —Jakob Poeltl, in particular — to play.

This sounds bleak, Blake. I mean, we’re still looking at a team that, pessimistically, will win 45 games. They will be relevant and fun, and maybe some of their prospects really pop — I’ve got high hopes for Poeltl, Wright and Anunoby, in particular. There are just a lot of questions about roster construction right now, and that is without worrying about the tax. And I still kind of wish, if they were willing to spend on Tucker, they would have been willing to spend a little less on Patterson. But if they believe in Siakam, then I guess it makes sense. It is just that his rookie year did not buoy my confidence in him, although you saw a little more of him in the ‘Saug.

Well, poop. Are we disagreeing here? This really must be a new season of the Reasonablists. So, give me your (reasonably) optimistic take on why fans should not be worrying so much. (And you can’t say “it’s professional sports and devoting actual negative energy to it is a silly endeavour,” because it will inadvertently devalue both of our livelihoods.)

MURPHY: I’ll be writing about the boring reasons Powell won’t sign an extension sometime soon, if anyone is curious as to why. It is boring, but you can’t pass up a chance to suggest what a stranger should do with his financial future. And yes, Powell underlines another pretty important reason to get this done now rather than later, because settling up the near-term financial situation also clears up a lot about future years (although this much is already deep-fried-sandwich-rubbed-on-wax-paper clear: It’ll be tough). There’s also the leverage factor as things get more dire.

It does sound bleak. Or close to bleak. This is what they signed up for: They’ve locked in the stars, and now the hard work comes. They have put a premium on player development, so maybe those returns are greater than we anticipate (Bruno!). And as you point out, bleak, in this case, is a 45-win season and a coin-flip first-round matchup. That’s a fine floor, just not one befitting a $24-million tax bill. I don’t think we’re disagreeing much, I just think maybe I’ve been resigned to this for a while (although the market shift that’s killed their chances of a trade is an unfortunate turn).

To humour you, a case for less worry: DeRozan, Lowry, and Ibaka are back. They are three borderline-to-bonafide all-stars, and that’s how elite teams are built. They had those three players for a total of 157 games last year and a total of three together (plus eight in the playoffs). Individually they are in their peak years. The team has some interesting young pieces who can push a solid, if unspectacular, floor a little higher. And you, personally, don’t have to care if they end up footing a heavy luxury tax bill. Basically, they have high-end talent that’s hard to assemble and moderately interesting youth. There’s some upside to build in based on internal development, familiarity, and any system changes (#CultureReset). And nothing matters, eat at Arby’s. It’s really not so bad, you just have to come to terms with the limited means of fortifying their legitimacy as a contender.

Let’s end it on a slightly more actionable positive. Give me your best case trade-then-sign scenario, and we’ll call it a wrap.

KOREEN: Forget that; picture this: The New Orleans Pelicans start the year 20-30 in a stacked Western Conference. They have already moved DeMarcus Cousins for pennies on the dollar to Washington (don’t ask me how), while the Celtics have taken advantage of the Thunder’s underwhelming experiment by finally dealing some of their prime assets for Paul George and his Bird rights.

All of a sudden, Anthony Davis, through an intermediary, tells the Pelicans he wants out of New Orleans. The Pelicans, desperate to start a legitimate rebuild, immediately put Davis on the market.

Credit: ESPN

Throw in two first-round picks and make it happen, Masai. The Raptors win the Eastern Conference in 2019, before falling in five games to the Warriors. Perfect!

But for reals, the Raptors dump Valanciunas to the Nets, and then sign C.J. Miles. That would work.

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Eric Koreen is the lead Raptors writer for The Athletic. Previously he has covered the Raptors and the NBA for the National Post, VICE Sports and Sportsnet. Follow Eric on Twitter @ekoreen. If you liked this story, subscribe today for access to all of our ad-free content. Plans start at just $4.99 per month.