May Madness: Men's DI Bracketology IV, May 8

We've gone through three iterations of which 16 teams were likeliest to make it to the NCAA men's DI lacrosse tournament, and today we get the payoff.

Yesterday I said things weren't as chaotic as a few more upsets may had made them — well, we got those upsets in the form of Hartford beating Stony Brook and Colgate toppling Maryland. Unfortunately for the Raiders, who've made a remarkable climb up the RPI in recent weeks, the win settles into the 10-20 range and, despite knocking off the ACC champs looks no better than a win over RPI No. 20 Loyola would, or a win over Delaware, which Stony Brook has, and leaves their resumes looking remarkably similar, just on the outside of the bubble.

Harvard, 10-5 with three RPI 10-20 wins, is playing in today's Ivy League Tournament final against Cornell, and unless they win, I think they're the first team out. That means that Hofstra is still the last team in, although Villanova, with their loss to Georgetown, slips into the bubble conversation, though I still like the Wildcats to get in.

Maryland, North Carolina and Denver are battling for the last two hosting spots, and while I wouldn't be surprised to see any of the two get the nod, I expect Maryland to maintain its spot over Carolina because of a superior record and more wins in the 6-10 range and Denver to lose out on account of not having a top five win.

Yesterday I also promised a first stab at a projected bracket. It's assembled taking into account the recently learned information that bus trips are allowed up to 400 miles, there's no limit on the number of flights in the first round, but costs will try to be constrained whenever possible.

Here it is (resumes are below):

Projected Bracket

Foxborough Quarterfinal
1. Syracuse
Siena

8. North Carolina
Denver

4. Duke
Villanova

5. Notre Dame
Bucknell

Hofstra Quarterfinal
3. Johns Hopkins
Delaware

6. Virginia
Penn

2. Cornell
Hartford

7. Maryland
Hofstra

*Note: In the event that Detroit upsets MAAC top seed Siena, expect to see the Titans go to Notre Dame, Hartford go to Syracuse, Hofstra go to Cornell and Bucknell go to Maryland.