Is Senators winger Dany Heatley seeking his ticket out of Ottawa? Sources tell me that is the case.
According to those sources, Ottawa GM Bryan Murray has been notified of Heatley's desire for a change of scenery and is mulling his options. On the record, though, Murray said Heatley is still a Senator.
"We signed him to a long-term deal and we expect him to honor it," Murray told ESPN.com's Pierre LeBrun on Tuesday morning. "At this point in time, he's a Senator."
Murray could retool the Senators' roster by moving Heatley. Of course, any trading partner would have to have the budget room necessary to accommodate the remaining five years of Heatley's deal, which counts for $7.5 million against the cap. Heatley is thought to be interested in a move to the Western Conference.

The last two seasons have been relatively difficult for Heatley, who has seen a dip in his scoring. Of course, he’s still a point per game player:

2005-06: 82GP – 50G – 53A – 103PTS, +29

2006-07: 82GP – 50G – 55A – 105PTS, +31

2007-08: 71GP – 41G – 41A – 82PTS, +33

2008-09: 82GP – 39G – 33A – 72PTS, -11

I don’t think Heatley’s quite the two-way player that his +/- from 2005-08 would seem to indicate; but frankly, I don’t care. He doesn’t need to be entirely sheltered, and he’s among the best players in the entire league at scoring goals and racking up points against the secondary toughs.

This is also a case of buying while the price is right; Heatley’s numbers were artificially deflated last season by the percentages – something that’s unlikely to happen again. As one example, his on-ice even-strength save percentage was .899 - .910 was the team average, and as Vic Ferrari has shown that’s almost certainly not his fault. His on-ice even-strength shooting percentage was 6.3% - the Senators averaged 7.6%, and that’s another number that almost certainly isn’t Heatley’s fault. Heatley also posted his worst personal shooting percentage since his rookie season (15.1%) – he typically converts 16%+ of shots that he makes. His +/- was further damaged by a number of empty-net goals against.

I’ll grant that Heatley generally gets run out in the offensive zone, something that inflates his numbers and that despite that he doesn’t drive possession like he really should, but he’s so lethal from the blueline in that it almost doesn’t matter; he’s one of the few players talented enough that they can get outchanced and still outscore almost any opposition.

People talk about Vincent Lecavalier, but I’m not sure why Heatley doesn’t rate higher on most lists. He has two 100-point seasons to Lecavalier’s one, two 50-goal seasons to Lecavalier’s one, four seasons with at least 40 goals to Lecavalier’s two, and he’s done most of it in a much tougher division to boot.

Heatley’s cheaper than Lecavalier and his contract expires sooner; he’s still a bit overpriced given the fact that he’s not really a guy who can be leaned on in all three zones but guys do get paid for offense and even in a bad year Heatley’s going to score more than 35 goals. The other consideration is his position; there are far more centres near the point-per-game mark than there are left wingers.

As for what Ottawa would want in exchange, I’d guess that it is a lot. Fortunately for the Oilers, the Senators’ position of greatest need is on the back end, not up front; so a defenseman could be the centre-piece of the deal. I’d guess that Ottawa would ask for Gilbert, and the Oilers would need to toss in more. Could Gilbert, Cogliano and Eberle get that trade done? Perhaps, although it wouldn’t surprise me if the pot needed to be richer still – possibly by inserting a player like Patrick O’Sullivan in place of Eberle. I’d be on the fence about making that latter trade. Ideally of course the Senators would be willing to take Dustin Penner back in any trade, but somehow I don’t see that happening.

One thing is for certain – the Oilers should not be willing to send Ales Hemsky the other way. Hemsky would seem to be a perfect complement for Heatley; the ideal passer to setup a triggerman of his ability. There’s also the salary cap to consider; Heatley is not inexpensive (7.5 million a season until 2013-14) and Ales Hemsky is a bargain given his skill level. If he were dealt, the Oilers would face a hole at RW; a hole that would not be nearly so cheap to fill.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including the Edmonton Journal, Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

I don’t see how you couldn’t play Horcoff on that line. Heatley was on a pretty sucessful first line in Ottawa, in large part thanks to Alfredsson, and Horcoff is the closest thing to Alfredsson we’ve got. Hemmer would of course be the “Spezza” on that line as well as on the powerplay.

I don't think you could emphasize "closest" and "we've got" in that statement enough, because Horcoff isn't anywhere close to Danny Alfredsson.

And he regretted it for 10 years. Smith is a throw in in order for ottawa to clear cap space to add another forward to their top 9. We take him because we're willing to eat his salary in order to dump Penner and get Heatley.

misfit wrote:
Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t realistically see him going anywhere but Los Angeles when it’s all said and done.
I wonder. The lustre seems to be off Jack Johnson, and while the Kings could offer up Frolov I think the Senators would probably prefer a defenseman as the centre piece.
I’m just guessing, of course.

With Volchenkov, Kuba, and Phillips in the top 4, is the Ottawa defense really that big of a weakness? Right now, Kelly and Fisher make up 2/3 of their 2nd line and Kelly would be their top LW (I think he played wing last year) with Heatley going in a trade. That's not a very impressive group of forwards they've got down in the capital.

I could see a package with Frolov and a young defenseman that they seem to have in abundace (Johnson, Greene, Quincy, Tubert, Hickey, etc.) with other stuff being just as appealing, if not moreso than a deal with Gilbert or Souray as the centerpiece.

misfit wrote:
I don’t see how you couldn’t play Horcoff on that line. Heatley was on a pretty sucessful first line in Ottawa, in large part thanks to Alfredsson, and Horcoff is the closest thing to Alfredsson we’ve got. Hemmer would of course be the “Spezza” on that line as well as on the powerplay.
I don’t think you could emphasize “closest” and “we’ve got” in that statement enough, because Horcoff isn’t anywhere close to Danny Alfredsson.

@ J-Bird:
Not saying a Dynasty…but you rebuild till you can make a run at the cup, then rinse, then repeat.
Not every team other than Detroit is in a rebuild

I simply laugh at the notion that 2006 wasn't a pure fluke, which it was. It has been a 2 decade "rebuild" with this team. That 2006 team was an 8th place team who got lucky and had a hot tender. Just like the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes, Calgary Flames were. Lucky, flukey, whatever. Was it fun? Big time fun. No question.

I think it's time for this team to be an elite team for a time, to stop trading "today" for "tomorrow" all the freeking time, stop the fast track development of minor league players on an NHL roster. No coach can win with the amount of not yet ready NHL players on one team at one time. It doesn't work. Despite what the propaganda minister at the Oilers (or Journal or Sun) tells us.

Chris wrote:
I worry Murray’s focus will be to move UP in the draft… Ottawa currently picks 9th.
This is where the Kings have HUGE leverage.

When a player asks for a trade, the team loses leverage (that being that they can no longer say "we don't have to deal him"), expecially when he has an NTC. That and I would expect that Murray wouldn't be too upset if he got an already developed and established player (Gilbert and Cogs) and a later pick.

When a player asks for a trade his value falls, of course there are going to be offers to compete with but Gilbert, Cogs, Eberle and picks would compete with Frolov, Johnson and LA's 09 1st rounder

besides, this is ultimately Heatley's choice and if he want's a team that can be a top contender and it comes down to Edmonton and LA, I think Edmonton is where you go. Edmonton has the best chance to do to win based on our division: there is cap problems galore in Calgary, Vancouver will have personel problems, Minnisota is up in the air, and Colorado.......

LA has to deal with San Jose, and Anahiem, who should both be good teams next year.

Downright Fierce wrote:
Chris wrote:
I worry Murray’s focus will be to move UP in the draft… Ottawa currently picks 9th.
This is where the Kings have HUGE leverage.
When a player asks for a trade, the team loses leverage (that being that they can no longer say “we don’t have to deal him”), expecially when he has an NTC. That and I would expect that Murray wouldn’t be too upset if he got an already developed and established player (Gilbert and Cogs) and a later pick.
When a player asks for a trade his value falls, of course there are going to be offers to compete with but Gilbert, Cogs, Eberle and picks would compete with Frolov, Johnson and LA’s 09 1st rounder

Johnson wants 5.5 mil adding Frolov to that and they are taking more money back and is Johnson any better than Gilbert. I would offer up Gilbert, Cogs and our 10th pick Would you add Eberle to get the deal done if that's what it took I would you never know if he will turn out and we know what heater can do. get it done

JRocks247 wrote:
@ J-Bird:
Not saying a Dynasty…but you rebuild till you can make a run at the cup, then rinse, then repeat.
Not every team other than Detroit is in a rebuild
I simply laugh at the notion that 2006 wasn’t a pure fluke, which it was. It has been a 2 decade “rebuild” with this team. That 2006 team was an 8th place team who got lucky and had a hot tender. Just like the Florida Panthers, Washington Capitals, Carolina Hurricanes, Calgary Flames were. Lucky, flukey, whatever. Was it fun? Big time fun. No question.
I think it’s time for this team to be an elite team for a time, to stop trading “today” for “tomorrow” all the freeking time, stop the fast track development of minor league players on an NHL roster. No coach can win with the amount of not yet ready NHL players on one team at one time. It doesn’t work. Despite what the propaganda minister at the Oilers (or Journal or Sun) tells us.

No team makes it to game seven of the stanley cup final by fluke. That 2006 Oilers Squad played awesome hockey.

The Sens blogger over at "that sight" has said that Heatley has given his agent a list of teams he won't accept a trade to. Can't see us being on it, but who knows.

So, let's get this straight, he demands a trade, but will only waive his NMC to go to certain teams? I don't think Murray is stupid enough to make a deal that ties his hands THAT much. If I was Murray, I'd say you go where we get the best deal or you come play. It's not as though Murray has gone to him and asked HIM to waive his NMC.

I've already mentioned LA, San Jose and Vancouver as likely destinations in an earlier blog post, but what about Colorado. I doubt it, but if Sakic is off the books and done, and the Avs have a young forward like Stastny that needs a sniper to play with, and they have a young forward like Wolski along with a puck mover like Liles not to mention the 3rd overall pick, is it possible to conclude they may also be a consideration? If the Sens could flip their 9th for a 3rd that would be worth an awful lot.

I simply laugh at the notion that 2006 wasn’t a pure fluke, which it was. It has been a 2 decade “rebuild” with this team. That 2006 team was an 8th place team who got lucky and had a hot tender.

Why were they an 8th place team? Because their goaltenders had a save percentage of .884.

The Oilers scored 249 goals on 2444 shots, they allowed 242 goals on 2091 shots. Even if they'd had worse than league average goaltending, their goals against would have dropped from 242 to 209 - a 33 goal difference in a league where approx. 3 goals is equal to one win.

The 2005-06 Oilers were a contending team with garbage goaltending. Once the goaltending was fixed, they performed to their ability. They'd have kept it up too, if they hadn't let go of half the roster including their best player.

If you want to believe it was a fluke, go ahead. But I'm quite sure you're wrong.

JW: I wouldn’t do that with Gagner until after this season and he’s signed to an extension.
Giving him soft minutes with an elite playmaker and sniper would drive the cost of his new contract through the roof.

I'm sold.

So, the top line would pretty much have to be Heatley - Horcoff - Hemsky. I'm fine with that. The team would still need to add a shutdown centre, and then they could run out the top-nine like so (in order of difficulty of minutes, not icetime):

My guess: Heatley stays in the Capital.
B-Murr is gonna have a ball watching the entire Western Conference fumble over themselves trying to put a package together… Then he’ll say, “No.”
Barring some miracle deal that gets spun out on Draft Day, I really don’t see it happening for any team (let alone the Oilers). Having said that, I do think the Oil have the best pieces to fit the hypothetical Heater-less Sens squad, but do we have the cap room? Unless we’re talking about Souray/Visnovski going, I’m pretty sure the numbers aren’t copacetic.

How many times have you seen stars publicly demand a trade only to stay with the team?

GSC wrote:
misfit wrote:
I don’t see how you couldn’t play Horcoff on that line. Heatley was on a pretty sucessful first line in Ottawa, in large part thanks to Alfredsson, and Horcoff is the closest thing to Alfredsson we’ve got. Hemmer would of course be the “Spezza” on that line as well as on the powerplay.
I don’t think you could emphasize “closest” and “we’ve got” in that statement enough, because Horcoff isn’t anywhere close to Danny Alfredsson.
Do we have anyone closer?

Oh I'm not disagreeing with you, just saying that you can't emphasize enough that Horcoff isn't anywhere close to Alfie, but he is our closest comparable (sadly enough).

So, let’s get this straight, he demands a trade, but will only waive his NMC to go to certain teams? I don’t think Murray is stupid enough to make a deal that ties his hands THAT much. If I was Murray, I’d say you go where we get the best deal or you come play. It’s not as though Murray has gone to him and asked HIM to waive his NMC.

Thats exactly why players want a NMC in their contract, so that in the event that they want out or are asked to be traded they don't have to go to any crap team with a huge package. Nothing new going on here. You are right though, Murray doesn't have to do anything. I think alot of GM's would like to trade high payed players if they don't want to play there. I'm sure his list of teams isn't just 2 or 3 either, lots of options still available if Murray decides to pull the trigger.

How many times have you seen stars publicly demand a trade only to stay with the team?

Every other week in the NFL.

...Ok, ok, so we're talking NHL, but hockey players make plenty of wild claims only to have them blow over. Although Dany-boy does have a pretty successful track record as far as getting trades done for him, I still think Murray can stall him until camp and find some way to coax the Heater back into a Sens uni.

Ottawa will owe Heatley an additional $4 Million bonus as of July 1st... If he is going to be moved; He'll be moved before then. Besides, Murray may want to sign a UFA if less salary is coming back. This will be fun no matter what!

J-Bird wrote:
I simply laugh at the notion that 2006 wasn’t a pure fluke, which it was. It has been a 2 decade “rebuild” with this team. That 2006 team was an 8th place team who got lucky and had a hot tender.
Why were they an 8th place team? Because their goaltenders had a save percentage of .884.
The Oilers scored 249 goals on 2444 shots, they allowed 242 goals on 2091 shots. Even if they’d had worse than league average goaltending, their goals against would have dropped from 242 to 209 - a 33 goal difference in a league where approx. 3 goals is equal to one win.
The 2005-06 Oilers were a contending team with garbage goaltending. Once the goaltending was fixed, they performed to their ability. They’d have kept it up too, if they hadn’t let go of half the roster including their best player.
If you want to believe it was a fluke, go ahead. But I’m quite sure you’re wrong.

Those are fair points. But I disagree entirely.

The proof is in year 3 of no playoffs after that. In fact, Calgary is even less of a fluke because at least they've maintained a playoff position since their run.

A better comparison would be to the others who road a hot goalie, just like the Oilers did with Roli in 2006. I don't buy that the Oilers were a "player away" that year. The propaganda machine at the Sun and Journal may have folks believe that, but I don't. Had Detroit had anybody but Legace, they kill the Oil. If Pisani didn't portray the next coming of Glenn Anderson, what happens? Lots went right for the Oil. And it was great.

The one thing they DID that year, is make trades for TODAY instead of "tomorrow" in the additions of Pronger and Peca in the off season, the additions of Spacek, Samsonov and Roli during the season.

Amazing what legit NHLers do to a line up isn't it? And that's been my gripe for a lot of years. And that team knew they were for sure losing Samsonov, Spacek, and Peca. Roli was a UFA, so you didn't know. I don't think that team was elite. They were a fluke, a perfect storm if you will. Just like the rest of the Cinderella's I mentioned.

To many examples of hoping for a guy to turn out. Let Smytty walk, throw huge money at an unproven Penner instead, get O'Mara and Bobby for him. Hoping, "hoping", wishing, praying, they turn out.

In 2006 they didn't give a rip and added NHL players to the team. K-Lowe specials are the likes of the Pronger deal to Anaheim though. Hopeful, wishful thinking.

I've never seen a team trying to hit the homer so often in these wishful thinking type trades on futures.

J-Bird wrote:
The proof is in year 3 of no playoffs after that.
I’d say that shows how utterly Kevin Lowe gutted the team in the summer of 2006. It was one of the worst G.M. performances I’ve seen by a guy who’d looked competent beforehand.

Gutted the team? From what I can remember a bunch of guys got on the plane to get the heck out of here as quick as they could. I'd hardly call that gutting the team.

@ Ogden Brother:
I think he’s referring to the poor return for Pronger, coupled with the failure to extend Smyth. Remember Miknov? He made the opening night roster… and they skated Smid in the top four!

5 assets, 4 of them equivalent to first round picks (two of them high first rounders) and a 2nd is a pretty plump return. Everyone thought that giving up 4 firsts for 7 years of a 24 year old 43 goal scorer was too much, yet recieving 4 + a 2nd for 4 years of a 32 year old top end Dmen is a poor return? Especially considering that we lost all leverage.

Check out the Bure trade (amoungst others) the Pronger trade isn't as bad as we like to pretend it was.

@ Ogden Brother:
The Pronger trade was the primary sin, though there were others.
Entering 2006-07 with the defense corps that they did and allowing a ton of useful two-way guys to leave without filling those holes was absolutely unforgiveable.
People complain about not getting Getzlaf for Pronger, but if Lowe couldn’t get a number one defenseman back (even a lesser player, such as Kaberle) he should have let Pronger sit and rot.

5 years of Smyth, even at the reported 5.5 would have only been considerd "decent" at this time... and will likely end up being considerd a "bad deal" by year 4/5.

Let Pronger rot? You rather have Pronger at home then O'sully/Smid/Eberle/Nash?

Other then that it was a bunch of rental players that walked away... which rental players typically do.

To get those players, the Oilers had to move from being a Stanley Cup finalist to full rebuild mode.

Some good young players doesn't make that a worthwhile move; there was no reason for the Oilers not to contend for a playoff spot the past two years, but it happened because Lowe couldn't keep his team competitive.

@ Ogden Brother:
To get those players, the Oilers had to move from being a Stanley Cup finalist to full rebuild mode.
Some good young players doesn’t make that a worthwhile move; there was no reason for the Oilers not to contend for a playoff spot the past two years, but it happened because Lowe couldn’t keep his team competitive.

Well they are certainly better then having him stay home.

Also, they did compete for a playoff spot last year (and to a lesser extent this past year) and they were competing for one the year after the Pronger trade until around game 55 when injuries hit and the Smyth trade capped it off.

Except that Heatley, unlike Horcoff and his heterochromia, has two of the same colour . One of his eyes is just permanently dilated from a broken orbital. Sometimes I watch ER and pretend I'm a doctor... one of the sexy female doctors of course.

@ Ogden Brother:
The value was fine. The regression the team suffered was not.
Besides, I’m sure someone would have offered a legit defenseman in package for Pronger.

The regression was caused by more then just the Pronger trade. Sure that team was better then an 8th place team when Rollie finally firmed up the tending, but even then, if Pronger was still in the line up and Rollie in the nets the loss of Samsonov/Spacek/Peca will still have likely brought the team back from SCF to fring playoff team. It's all speculation for now, but in 1-2 years, I'm sure we'll be alot happier with what we got vs Kaberle and Stajen.

@J-Bird, you do not win that many games against that many talented hockey teams by fluke. One series maybe. Get real dude. Quit arguing for the sake of arguing. Suck it up and admit defeat.

An 8th place team has made the finals one time. And that's no fluke? Take off the Ogden Brother Oiler appologist copper and blue glasses for a second here. What would you call the Panthers, Canes, Ducks, etc. who did the same damn thing? Great teams? Or lucky?

The highest this team has finished since the boys on the bus days is 6th. They haven't won a division in how long? I consider what's happened over the past 20 years a rebuild. Maybe that's just me? Maybe I set the bar a little higher.