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Weapons of Mass Destruction

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What are WMDs? • More powerful than a speeding bullet… • Able to destroy great masses of humanity, including civilians with a single blow…. • Rarely used but capable of inducing terror when used… • Nuclear – A-bombs and H-bombs • Chemical – Sarin (nerve gas) and others • Biological – Anthrax, Ebola and others

History of Sarin • Invented by the Nazis in 1938, it went into production at the end of WWII • It was NOT the gas used in the gas chambers – that was Zyklon B, a cyanide-based pesticide • Sarin was produced and stockpiled by US and USSR beginning in 1950 • Following the ratification of the Chemical Weapons Convention (treaty), the stockpiles began to be destroyed

Chemical Weapons Convention • First disarmament treaty to include a time frame for the elimination of an entire class of weapons of mass destruction • First multilateral arms control treaty to incorporate an intrusive verification regime • In force since 4/29/97 • http://www.cwc.gov/ • http://www.opcw.org/

Use of Sarin in recent times • Japanese sect used Sarin in 1994 and 1995, killing 8 + 13 people • Iraq/Hussein used Sarin on the Kurds in 1987-8 and also on Iranian soldiers • Attack on Halabjah in March 1988 killed ~4000 Kurds, injured ~10,000 • Sarin gas has killed ~1400 people near Damascus – videos and images are online – did Assad gas his own people?

Death toll in Syria (2013) • Estimated at between 80,000 and 100,000 to date since the civil war started in spring 2011 – half civilians

So why is Sarin so bad? • Conventional weapons have killed ~100 times more people than Sarin in the Syrian civil war • Chemical weapons are banned by treaty signed/ratified by all but: • Israel South Sudan • Myanmar Egypt • Syria Angola • N. Korea • It is therefore a “banned” substance

But mostly - Sarin is Scary! • Colorless, odorless liquid that can be easily aerosolized for distribution • Nerve agent that causes paralysis of muscles, leading to asphyxiation when lung muscles cannot function • Lethal dose is 0.5 mg for adult human • Sarin is relatively easy to manufacture – it does not need sophisticated technology

Getting rid of Sarin • Can’t bomb factories or storage depots – that would spread toxic materials • Hard to track because easily concealed and moved around • Need verifiable process to monitor the stockpile and oversee destruction or removal of materials • However, it is difficult to prevent new manufacturing unless factories are also monitored

Nuclear weapons – some history • World War II coincided with advances by physicists in understanding the inner workings of the atom • These physicists understood that it was possible to release huge amounts of energy by breaking apart or smashing together nuclei of atoms – far more than can be released in chemical reactions, which rely on electrons

WWED? • By 1939 many prominent (mostly Jewish) physicists had fled Europe and resettled in the USA • Albert Einstein signed a letter to President Roosevelt alerting him to the terrible potential of weaponizing nuclear reactions • But until Pearl Harbor in 1941, the USA did not invest much in this research

Manhattan Project • After 1941, the US began to race Nazi Germany to develop nuclear weapons • Manhattan Project was really located in Los Alamos, NM • Most of the funding went to build factories that could produce the materials needed to make the bombs • The first successful test was Trinity on 7/16/45 in Alamogordo, NM

Why is an atomic bomb so much worse than a TNT bomb? • Amount of heat and light energy released is 1000 times greater • Explosion is accompanied by invisible, penetrating and harmful radiation • After explosion, radioactive fallout remains and continues to damage living things for days  weeks  years Ground level view of Hiroshima cloud

Hiroshima buildings Physical Effects of Nuclear Weapons • Pressure Blast Wave • Buildings collapse • Fallout • Radioactive fragments which stick to air particles or dirt that is sucked up mushroom stem • 80% falls back down in first day • 90% falls back down in first week • 10% lasts weeks  years Google Nuclear Weapon Effects Calculator to try it out on your city! Nagasaki victim

Physical Effects of Nuclear Weapons • Electromagnetic Pulse • Strongest for very high bursts • g-rays ionize air  electrons • Electrons create large currents in air • Currents are picked up by power lines • Power surges shut down grid, destroy attached electrical devices • 1.4 Mton airburst in 1962 knocked out lights in Hawaii over 1000 miles away

Nuclear Weapons are Scary too! • Most of the lasting effects are due to radiation, so are odorless and colorless • Genetic damage and cancers can take 20 or more years to develop • A single bomb can kill 100,000 people and destroy an entire city • It does not take much nuclear material to create a big explosion • However, it does take considerable engineering to make a bomb that works

Critical mass  chain reactions • When a large enough mass of either 235U or 239Pu is assembled, a self-sustaining chain reaction results after the first fission is produced. • The minimum (“critical”) mass of fissile material that can sustain a nuclear chain reaction depends on the density, shape, and type of fissile material, as well as the effectiveness of any surrounding material (called a reflector or tamper) at reflecting neutrons back into the fissioning mass. • Depleted U is often used in the tamper

“Fat Man” style of A-bomb • High explosives are arranged to form an imploding shock wave which compresses the fissile material to supercriticality. • Burst of neutrons from generator is timed for moment of maximum compression

The “secret” of the H-bomb • At the high temperatures of a fission bomb 80% or more of the energy exists as soft X-rays • The X-rays heat a polystyrene channel, causing plasma which can compress and ignite the second (fusion) stage before the expanding (1000 km/sec) primary disrupts it.

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty • Vertical – development of new weapons by the “Big 5” • Horizontal – spread of weapons to other countries • “Haves” agree not to spread weapons, materials or technology to “have-nots” – also, to stop vertical proliferation • “Have-nots” agree not to try to acquire weapons from the “haves,” and will accept inspection and regulation of “peaceful” nuclear technology by IAEA- this stops horizontal proliferation

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty • NPT indefinitely extended since May 1995, confirmed again in 2000, reviewed most recently in May 2010 • Now signed by 189 countries • N. Korea ratified in 1985 then withdrew in 2003. In 2006 and 2009, it conducted nuclear tests. • Israel, India and Pakistan are still not signatories. • Iran remains a signatory but is in violation according to 2011 IAEA report which is disputed. This report describes in depth, the country’s detonator development, the multiple-point initiation of high explosives, and experiments involving nuclear payload integration into a missile delivery vehicle.

Some hopeful signs • New START (STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty) signed April 8, 2010 by Obama and Medvedev – and then ratified by Senate and put into force on Feb. 5, 2011 • Limits deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 • Limits deployed and non-deployed ICBM, SLBM, and heavy bombers to 800. • Limits deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers to 700 • For the first time in a long time, US and Russia are slowing vertical proliferation

Some hopeful signs • 2012 Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea (3/26-27/12) • Set a target date of 2014 for bringing the amendment of the Convention for the Physical Protection of Nuclear Materials (CPPNM) into force; • Several nations (incl. Italy) pledged to eliminate their stocks of fissile material; • Agreement between the U.S., France, Belgium and the Netherlands to produce medical isotopes without the use of highly enriched uranium by 2015. • Next summit in 2014 in the Netherlands

Chemical/Biological Weapons Problems • Chemical weapons largely ineffective • Biological weapons can’t be stored • Protection against both is relatively easy on the battlefield • Both are really “weapons of terror” against citizens or “weapons of intimidation” against soldiers rather than “weapons of mass destruction”

Biological/Chemical Terrorism • Since 1900, only ~75 terrorist attacks out of more than 40,000 used Chemical or Biological weapons • Only 125 people died & ~4000 got sick • ~20 people died in Japan in the well-publicized nerve gas attacks. This sect also tried to make biological weapons but failed, after spending $1 billion.

p n n p p n e e e e Isotopes and Elements • If Helium loses one of its neutrons, it becomes an isotope • If Helium loses one of its protons, it becomes a different element 3H 3He

Materials • Tritium = 3H = very heavy Hydrogen(1p+2n), used in fusion weapons • Deuterium =2H = heavy Hydrogen(1p+1n), used in fusion weapons • Uranium: 238U is >99% in nature 235U is ~0.7% in nature – major ingredient in fission weapons • Plutonium: 239Pu is not found in nature, used in fission weapons

Uranium processing • Uranium is mined as ore from open pits or deep shaft mines, often with the help of extracting solutions • At nearby mills, ore is crushed and U is extracted, leaving behind radioactive tailings • Extracted U is then leached (with sulfuric acid) forming a concentrate known as “yellowcake” (aka Uranium oxide U3O8) • Yellowcake is then turned into UF6gas, which can be cooled to a solid for easier transport