What is the view of Thomas Malthus on population as a limitation on human
progress?

How valid is Malthus's view?

How did population increase lead to economic competition in thirteenth-
century Europe?

What were the consequences of the rise of Capitalism in medieval Europe?

TEXT

Although I mentioned in the previous essay that the guild system failed because
it was not adapted to a competitive economy, I did not discuss in any detail why
the medieval economy, which had been expanding almost constantly ceased to do so
after about 1250.

In about 1796, Mr. Malthus, an English gentleman had finished reading a book that
had optimistically predicted that human life would continue to grow richer, more
comfortable and more secure, that nothing could stop the march of progress. He
discussed this theme with his son, Thomas, and Thomas emphatically disagreed with
his father, the book he had been reading, and the entire idea of unending human
progress. His father suggested that he write down his objections so that they
could discuss them point by point. Not long after, Thomas returned with a rather
long essay. His father read it and was so impressed that he urged his son to have
it published. And so, in 1798, Thomas Malthus's An Essay on
Population appeared. Although it was attacked at the time and ridiculed
for a long time afterward, it has remained one of the most influential works in
the English language.

Malthus assumed that people would generally have as many children as they could
rear. There are several valid reasons for this assumption, and, so far, attempts
to control population growth have proven ineffective. Malthus was also willing to
concede that production might also increase, but he pointed out that production
increases arithmetically, but population increased geometrically.
Let's think about that for a minute. Let's say that we have a population of 1000
who produce X amount of goods, enough to maintain them in comfort and good
health. Let's then say that they invent something that allows them to increase
their production by 100% so that they are producing 2X amount of goods. But each
of the couples that make up the population, times being good, have four children
who reach maturity. At the end of a generation, the population numbers 2000 and
they produce 2X amount of goods. So far, the ratio of goods to people is the same
as it was in the previous generation, since 1X/1000 is the same as 2X/2000.

Then they invent something else that allows them to increase their production to
3X. But the 1000 couples comprising the population each have four children, and
so the population rises to 4,000. This means that the standard of living is
dropping since 3X/4000 is considerable less than 2X/2000. Another inventions
raises production to 4X, but population rises 8,000, and another round raises
production to 5X and population to 16,000. Population is now rising much faster
than the available supply of goods.

Under such conditions, the price of goods begins to rise simply because there
isn't enough to go around. People begin to compete for the available wealth and,
although some become able to buy more than the average, most people have to spend
most of their income for food and shelter. These means that the number of people
able to buy manufactured goods begins to drop. Manufacturers try to increase
their sales by lowering prices, but they can do that only by paying less for raw
materials and cutting their workers' wages. But this means that their workers and
suppliers have less money to buy things, and this decreases the market for
anything but food and shelter still further. Much of the resources of labor and
capital that have been devoted to manufacturing has to be shifted to agriculture,
and more land is put under cultivation, even if it is land that is not very
productive under the best of circumstances. But all of this makes very little
difference, since the population is still rising faster than production.

Eventually, at least theoretically, things reach what is called a
Malthusian climax, in which there is now way of producing enough to
provide the population with sufficient food and shelter for them to stay alive.
The population must be reduced, and this can occur in any of a number of ways.
The most common is a famine, in which large numbers of people starve to
death and many more are so weakened that they fall victim to any of a number of
normally minor illnesses. Another way in which such populations are decreased is
by disease, often of epidemic proportions, that kills a significant
portion of the population. A third possibility is warfare, often within
the population itself, in which one portion of the society pursues the
genocide of another portion. There is still another path for population
decrease. If there is empty land available, or land that can be taken away from
its inhabitants -- especially if its inhabitants are not making full use of the
resources at their command -- part of the population can emigrate and
establish colonies.

Even these solutions are only temporary, however, since the population will only
begin to grow again once it is no longer limited by the available resources.
Sooner or later, Malthus suggested, the population will once again reach a climax
and will have to be decreased one way or another. What about population
limitation through birth control? Malthus, in effect, said that he would accept
that as a possibility only when he saw it practiced successfully. He did not
believe that human were capable of such rational discipline. By and large, little
attention was paid to Malthus's theories during the course of the eighteenth and
nineteenth centuries. The production increases brought about by the Industrial
Revolution regularly outstripped the increase in world population. In the
twentieth century, though, medical advances, such as the eradication of smallpox
and the general control of malaria, cholera, and yellow fever, allowed world
population to begin to increase at a faster rate.

We'll return to this matter later in the course. Right now, the important
consideration is that, starting in about 1250, the growth of European population
started to outstrip the growth of the European economy. Markets began to dwindle,
and people began to compete to sell what they were accustomed to produce and to
maintain their customary standard of living. The capitalist organization of
production was better adapted to these new competitive circumstances than was the
old guild organization, partly because the capitalist producers did not use any
of their profit for the public good. Moreover, the capitalist organization of the
economy did not solve the problems created by a growing population. In 1300, a
greater portion of the land of Europe was being used for food crops than ever
before or ever since. But, in 1315-1317, a spell of bad weather caused a
continent-wide famine in which some ten percent of the population died. It was
not until the 1340's, however, that a long-term "solution" arose. The Black
Death, or bubonic plague, swept through Europe and, in the space of about
five years, killed about a third of the inhabitants of the continent. This was
only the first of many epidemics that would periodically act as a check upon
Europe's population.

There were factors other than population increase that contributed to the
emergence of European Capitalism, but the increase of population and the
resultant impoverishment of the Europeans was certainly one of the important
factors to be considered. The results of the transformation of the European
economy are well-worth thinking about. In the guild system, the owner of a
business worked and lived alongside his employees, and the employees could look
forward to having their own businesses someday. The capitalist rarely associated
with his workers and certainly did not wish to pay them enough so that some of
them might eventually become his competitors. A great gulf had been opened
between workers and owners. Then, too, the capitalists did not, as a matter of
course, devote much of their time, attention, or resources to the public good.
Under the guild system, the economy and the welfare of society had been closely
linked. The rise of capitalism broke that link. Finally, the guild master sought
to rise to a comfortable level of living, and his fellow guild members would have
prevented him from growing rich by producing shoddy goods, engaging in false
advertising, rigging the market, driving others out of business, or any of a
number of activities that soon became more or less standard business practices of
the capitalists. The responsibility of the manufacturer to his profession and, by
extension, to the public was ended.

This perhaps paints too dark a picture, but it is interesting to speculate how a
modern society with an economy organized according to the guild system might
operate.

ASSIGNMENTS

REQUIRED ASSIGNMENTS

One of the reasons for the outbreak of the Black Death in the 1340's was the fact
that the Mongols, under Genghis Khan, had established an empire extending from
China in the East to the Black Sea in the West. Trade and communications were now
much easier between East and West, and Western Europe's long isolation had come t
an end. There was a disadvantage to this, however, in that Europe was now open to
the spread of diseases from outside. Empires
Beyond the Great Wall: The Heritage of Genghis Khan offers a good picture of
the establishment of the Mongol empire. There is a brief discussion of the
effects of the
Black Death that may interest you.

This text was produced and installed by
Lynn H. Nelson, Department of
History, University of Kansas.
23 February 1998
Lawrence KS