Sunday, January 4, 2009

Oddusudan junction now under SLA control

The Sri Lank Army units operating north of Nedunkerni, Mullaithivu, have brought the Oddusudan junction under their control. Oddusudan junction is located along the A-34 main road which connects Mankulam and the tiger stronghold of Mullaithivu. Units from SLA’s newly formed Task Force 4 were the first to march into the formerly LTTE held township by today noon. Ground forces were supported by SLAF jets which raided LTTE positions north east of the town.

Meanwhile with the recent fall of Kilinochchi, tigers are now left with the control of only one major town in the North; Mullaithivu. The battle for Mullaithivu will not be an easy one and the army is not taking it lightly. SLA plans to deploy around 50000 ground troops from at least 6 different divisions (majority already deployed) for operations in the Mullathivu district alone.

93 comments:

Those who keep watching Ceylon Singhala propoganda TV like Puken Appu should read my latest article. Finally its harvesting time for the LTTE! Retired arm chair generals like Moshe should read and learn the truth. That will help time wasters to educated themselves.

Is it different from previous analysis? If so, I will not only read it, but also devour it digitally!

May be about Rajapaksa's next pipe dream!!

Guys,

I thought this guy, G B S Jeyaraj has some inside information to splash out across his Transcurrent Blog.

I was wrong; what he does is just copying and pasting from other sites. For instance, there was an article about the Indian High Commissioner on it - straight from Ranil's mouthpiece, the Sunday Leader.

Jeyaraj has been erring these days; he predicted the fall of Killinochchi, long ago - wrong. Then the imminent fall of Mulathivu and EP - wrong.

I don't blame him if he just tries to increase the traffic towards his blog; peeter and Mahen do the same - a democratic right that exists everwhere apart from Prabha's imaginary Eelam.

Very nice post Mahen. You'll soon get an award for the "best fiction writer of the year" or something like that I expect. Your inside sources had told you that Killinochi will not fall, that SLA will meet their Waterloo at Killi, and now they are saying that EPS will not fall and LTTE is going to launch fierce counter attacks? We prefer to live in the real world rather than in dream worlds, so thanks but no thanks.

...further to my earlier comment, commandos launch "raids". They don't move in to a town with large enemy resistance and sit there to get their asses shot at. They move in, get the job done and get the hell out before the enemy can launch a good counter attack. What kind of a donkey would call this a victory, after they have come in, done their job and left without any problems? If you think that you have chased them away, you can think again.

Reliable sources say that a foreign intelligence service has informed Sri Lankan defense authorities that LTTE Deputy Leader as well as intelligence leader Shanmugalingam Shivashankar alias Pottu Amman has fled Vanni following the collapse of the bastions of the Tigers. However, with the lack of information regarding if he had fled to a foreign country, the sleuths believe that he has positioned himself somewhere in South.

LeN

Any truth behind this? Len reports have to be taken with a good dose of salt through

Prabha has been saying that the capture of Killinochchi is a pipe dream, even after its fall.

There are two possibilities:

He has gone completely mad

The true information is kept away from him by his loved ones - may be Mathivathini & Co for the fear of risk of deteriorating his fragile health

If it is the first case, it is irreversible; it happened to Hitler too. To think of victory even at the jaws of imminent death and destruction. This is the more dangerous of the two as well. The brute at this stage may hardly care about the civilians and even order to massaccre them en masse. Hitler tried to starve the population en masse too.

If the latter is the case, Mathivathini needs lots of help. I am sure an army of bloggers are prepared to do that that include me, asithri and even Moshe.

Armchair bandits like you who've been promising armegeddon to us while getting ass raped have been a continuos source of entertainment. When this is over soon, we'd really like you to keep on writing such hilarious stuff, so that we can stay entertained.

When the game is over and the LTTE is put to sleep, don't let that ruin your fertile imagination. In a world where most of us have lost the ability to believe in myth and fairy tales, your infantile intellect is sure to be worth something.

"..They (Sri lankans) will never be allowed to set foot in tamil areas.." - Tamilsellan, boasting to foreign media before the SLAF being given coordinates by Pottu appu.

Excellent Article from "Siber News" on the entire operation for the capture of Kili. Our SLA is brave, smart and courageous:

Military planners of the Wanni operations initially envisaged the capture the administrative headquarters of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam by the dawn of the New Year. By the end of last week, the two military divisions which laid siege to Kilinochchi town had pierced through the trench cum earth bund built by the Tigers on the avenue of the approach of the two divisions.

Task Force 1 also known as the 58 Division was advancing towards Paranthan junction and the 57 division had broken through the remnants of the earth bund in Akkarayankulam.

However, on the eve of the New Year, Tigers stepped up resistance against Task Force 1, which was advancing on the Paranthan-Pooneryn road. A 30 mm cannon fitted to an armoured personnel carrier (APC) fired salvos at the soldiers. Fire power was so strong that it broke the trees. The APC fitted with the cannon kept moving from place to place to distract the fire finding radars. Later, an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) spotted the APC and based on electronic evidence provided by the UAV, Air Force fighter jets destroyed the APC, clearing the challenge.

Paranthan junction

At the dawn of the New Year, troops of the Task Force 1 took the Tigers holding the strategically important Paranthan junction by surprise. They delivered a coordinated pre-dawn attack. Under the cover of darkness, the Nine Gemunu Regiment and alpha company of the second commando Regiment captured the village named Uriyan located two km north of Paranthan, thereby cutting off a supply route for Tiger cadres from Elephant Pass. This was followed by a coordinated attack on the strategically important Paranthan town by several regiments attached to this division.Air force fighter jets carried out regular air sorties while armoured and artillery attacks targeted Tiger cadres holding well fortified positions. By midnight, the 12 Gamunu Regiment stormed the garrison town. Meanwhile, Eleven Ceylon Light Infantry supported by the Bravo Company of the First Commando regiment entered the A 9 road 1 km north of Kilinochchi.

By early morning of January 1, troops succeeded dislodging the Tigers from Paranthan junction and thereby effectively cutting off the main supply route of Mullaitivu- Kilinochchi road. The capture of the junction also isolated Elephant pass from Kilinochchi.

The LTTE launched a series of counter attacks, carried out by the battle hardened Tiger formation known as the Imran Pandyan brigade. Soldiers beat back successive attacks. Heavy artillery and mortar dual prevailed and main battle tanks and Infantry Fighting Vehicles of the Fifth Armoured Corp engaged with the Tiger targets.

Later in the day, the 11 Ceylon Light Infantry pushed southwards on the A 9 road towards Kilinochchi. They stopped 1 km from the Kilinochchi Railway station and took up positions. By then, the 571,572 and 574 Brigades attached to the 57 Division had broken through the earth bund and were approaching the Tiger political headquarters in three directions.

By 10 am on January 2, the 571 Brigade entered the Kilinochchi town. They were followed by the 572 and 574 Brigades. As the troops entered the built up area, the Tiger cadres opted to urban guerrilla warfare. Troops were faced with stiff resistance from the Tigers fighting from abandoned buildings. The house to house clearing operations became a tedious task. Then instructions were given to engage any buildings from where fire was coming using Rocket Propelled Grenades in order to avoid military casualties.

Retreated

The Tigers retreated and by afternoon, troops had consolidated the control of the administrative headquarters of the LTTE. President Mahinda Rajapaksa officially announced the capture addressing the nation, describing it as a victory for the entire country.

By the end of December, the LTTE smelt the impending fall of Kilinochchi and P. Nadesan, the political commissar of the movement said that the Tigers would fight irrespective of the loss of Kilinochchi— only a couple of weeks after Tiger supremo Velupillai Pirapaharan called the capture of Kilinochchi as a day dream of President Rajapaksa. When Nadesan admitted the possible fall of Kilinochchi, the 57 and 58 Divisions had effectively pierced through the trench cum earth bund. By then, there was no gainsaying that the fall of the town was imminent.

The Tigers fought tooth and nail to save Kilinochchi. No official figures have been released on the casualties of the security forces during the month of December, which was the bloodiest month during the fourth Eelam war. The LTTE had rarely been releasing its casualty figures. Heavy casualties were partially due as the security forces claimed that the LTTE continues to replenish its armoury. For instance, they point to the increase in the artillery and mortar attacks by the LTTE since mid December.

However, the most startling evidence of continued smuggling of arms by the LTTE was captured by an Unmanned Arial Vehicles (UAV) on December 19. According to the two hour Video footage recorded by the UAV, an approximately 35 foot trawler was seen beached in Chalai, unloading boxes of ammunition. Boxes were stacked on the beach and were seen loaded to trucks, which disappeared into the jungles. Chalai is the main launching pad of the sea Tigers. The UAV videoed the entire operation for two hours, however, the bad weather prevented the Air Force from engaging the target.

On the following day the navy intercepted and destroyed the alleged arms smuggling vessel, 17 km off Mullaitivu.According to intelligence reports, the LTTE continues to smuggle arms through the ship to trawler transfer at mid sea. Intelligence sources have reported that a ship carrying arms and ammunition had been anchored in the Andaman Sea. These arms are loaded onto trawlers and transported to Chalai. The LTTE trawlers, fitted with high powered engines operate in the midst of hundreds of Indian fishing trawlers, which have made their interception extremely difficult.

Back to the Wanni front; following the capture of Paranthan junction, the Task Force 1 is advancing towards Elephant Pass towards north and Murisamodai towards the east. Troops were operating only 2 km from Elephant Pass by yesterday. Task Force 1 is moving northward while the 53 and 55 Divisions of the army deployed in Muhamalai, Nagar Kovil and Kilaly were expected to move southward at anytime from now. However, many military officials believe that the Tigers would pull back from the northern defence lines, rather than risking a double envelopment by the three military divisions.

Loss of opportunity

However, military planners whose military strategy for the last three years aimed at the attrition of the guerrillas view a pull back by the LTTE as a loss of opportunity to score a higher rate of attrition on the guerrillas. According to military estimates, the LTTE has lost approximately 12,000 cadres during the last three years. They attribute this high attrition rate to the LTTE’s desire to fight from the beginning. Throughout 2007 and 2008, the Tigers offered stiff resistance as troops began operations from their forward defence lines running parallel to the Mannar-Vavuniya road. Troops fought pitched battles in Mannar’s rice bowl.

The LTTE shifted the strategy only during the latter part of 2008, opting to vacate Pooneryn and Mankulam in order to save cadres for future battles. The pull out from these places, though helped save Tiger cadres, by that time, the fighting units of the LTTE had faced a severe drain as well as battle stress.

How long would the Tigers opt to hold onto the northern defence lines is open to question. The longer the better, at least for enough time till the 58 Division could manoeuvre close to the northern defence lines, military planners believe. But, reports from the battle front reveal that the LTTE had already been vacating Elephant Pass, once the home to the largest military garrison which housed over 10,000 troops when the Army vacated the camp in the face of the guerrilla onslaught, Unceasing wave 3 in 2000.

The LTTE is believed to have at least 6000 fighting cadres, according to military estimates. Military officials believe that the LTTE would build another earth bund cum trench to defend its military nerve centres in Mullaitivu.Last week, five small teams of the 59 Division stormed a trench cum earth bund in Alampil. Five “eight man” teams took control of the earth bund and pushed deeper. They were unaware that a trench ran 200 meters from the earth bund. Advancing further, they were trapped in open land as Tiger cadres started to fire from the trench. 27 soldiers were killed, of which 22 bodies could not be recovered. The LTTE later handed over 17 bodies of soldiers through the ICRC.

Many fallen soldiers had close gunshot wounds, said a military official. Later in the week, troops of the 59 Division operating in Mulliyaweli came under strong counter attack by the Tigers. Troops repulsed the attack and during the subsequent search operations 14 bodies of slain LTTE cadres were recovered along with a catch of arms including one MPMG (Multi Purpose Machine Gun), two RPG (Rocket Propelled Grenade) launchers, ten RPG rounds, five T-56 riffles and hand grenades.

The air strip of the LTTE is located 3 km from the area where troops are operating in Mulliyaweli. Hence is the stronger resistance by the Tigers, said a military official.

There is no gainsaying that the battle is becoming brutal and bloodier. However, battle for Kilinochchi, which some analysts opt to describe as the mother of all battles, was not protracted as it was projected to be.However, the LTTE would like to fight one last battle which would decide whether it would retain conventional fighting capability.

Military strategy for the last leg of the battle has already been announced. Accordingly, the final thrust would involve 6 military Divisions- 57 and 59 Divisions and Task Force 1, 2, 3 and 4, which altogether have 100 battalions and 50,000 troops. The six divisions would lay siege to the Tiger enclave in Mullaitivu and will launch a coordinate attack.

Military successes in the past were reversed as they captured towns and urban centres while enabling the Tigers to retreat to the jungles from where they regrouped and fought back the forces.

The current military mission, though was protracted and the jungles were cleared before laying siege to the towns. Commandos are already operating in the jungles of Iranamadu as a prelude to the final thrust. The LTTE would be confined to an area of the size of 160 km2 from where it would be forced to fight the last conventional battle. It would not be a long before. According to senior military officials’ talk, though not yet public, the intention is to destroy the LTTE’s conventional military capability by June this year. That appears to be not too ambitious if the current military achievements are to be viewed with its due merit.

The last straw the LTTE has is to Hit the leaders of the war. MR, GR and SF. It is vital that these three do not take risks at all. Flying bombs could be a likely possibility because there will be no use of the planes if the air strips are captured by the army. Thus the LTTE might deploy them on a cloudy day well planned simultaniously loaded with explosives 250 - 300 kg each at the above vital targets.

NEVER UNDER ESTIMATE YOUR ENEMY UNTIL IT IS OVER. IT IS NOT YET OVER. IT CAN VERY WELL BE OVER FOR ALL OF US IF THE ABOVE SAID OCCURS.

The rumnour that Pottu Amman has escaped to the should be for one final DO OR DIE operation in the South. Therefore, Key Leaders in the South Including the President and below should take extra care. Always should not leave any stone unturned. LTTE would not use the same method that they used earlier.

It is the time for Intel to do everything they can do to get these guys live or dead.

A few soldiers also sustained injuries due to terrorists Improvised Explosive Devices and Anti Personnel Mines explosions.

Meanwhile, troops in high moral after the capture of KILINOCHCHI town continued their forward march further and attacked LTTE terrorists in the areas east of KILINOCHCHI, MURUSUMUDAI and east of PARANTHAN in KILINOCHCHI and caused heavy damages among the terrorists on Saturday (3). Troops also recovered one T-56 weapon, nine maps of KILINOCHCHI and one LTTE identity card from PARANTHAN east during a search operation around 11.30 on the same day.

In the meantime, troops advancing towards MULLAITTIVU confronted LTTE terrorists in THANNIUTTHU, THOTTAM, KACHCHILANMADU, north of MUDALIYANKULAM and KUMULAMUNAI areas in MULLAITTIVU and caused heavy losses among the terrorists on Saturday (3). Troops also expanded their Forward Defence Line further in KUMULAMUNAI area on the same day and recovered a terrorist dead body from the area.

The SLA suffered heavy casualties during the offensive, numbering over 300 KIA, this was possible as EPS area is open terrain. The LTTE launched numerous artillery and mortar salvos on the advancing SLA units and caused maximum damage. The LTTE did not suffer any casualties itself, the cadres are safely back in LTTE controlled areas THIS IS THE REAL TRUTH.I PROMISE (wink...wink...)

The thing that gets me about the Killi takeover is the sheer lack of civilians. There were meant to have been a 100,000+ civvies, yet only a few are left.

If you go to this link for Getty Pictures, you'll see more pix from Killi: http://tinyurl.com/82fanm

This picture caption states: "The only remaining residents appeared to be a group of 22 Tamil women, children and older men sheltering at the town's defunct hospital, an AFP reporter said. "We were ordered by the Tigers to leave but our family did not want to go," a 17-year-old girl named Komalasingham Thurasiha said."

How did they all leave? Were long columns of departing civilians observed by our UAVs? What happened? Were they allowed to take all their possessions in a few suitcases? What about the very old and the very young? Where are they living now?

The deliberate destruction of civilian property by the LTTE is so very Pol Pot like, the GOSL capitalise on this quickly. The LTTE constantly claim to be 'defending' Tamil civilians against depredations by GOSL forces. Here we have a clear case of wanton destruction of civilian property by the 'protectors'.

A warning about booby traps: When the Russians retreated before the German forces, they often left large bombs and mines with long time delay fuses, buried in roofs and walls of building that they thought the Germans would use. These bombs would explode a month or more after German occupation killing senior staff who were most often allocated the only undamaged dwellings in Russian towns and villages.

The SLA should check every single building they intend to occupy, paying particular attention to ceilings and for signs of new plaster and covering. I don't know how you 'look inside' walls, but there must be technology to do this. I reckon the LTTE is trying its utmost to do a simultaneous decapitation strike on the key personnel directing our military and this would be a simple way of achieving this.

Finally, it must be a real concern to the SLA that the LTTE manage to withdraw with their heavy weapons. We know that a disproportionate number of our casualties have been caused by their mortar and artillery. Finding and destroying this capability must be an absolute priority. I know that this is easier said than done, but I hope this is being looked into.

As always, so happy to see the SLA finally transformed into a serious fighting force capable of taking the fight to the enemy, taking casualties, learning from its mistakes and relentlessly pursuing the enemy. Too often, we paused and the LTTE time to re-group and bounce back.

"The SLA should check every single building they intend to occupy, paying particular attention to ceilings and for signs of new plaster and covering. I don't know how you 'look inside' walls, but there must be technology to do this. I reckon the LTTE is trying its utmost to do a simultaneous decapitation strike on the key personnel directing our military and this would be a simple way of achieving this."

Yes that is called Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) which can be found here.

Most of the LTTE’s senior military commanders have been moved to the eastern part of the Wanni region. What are the LTTE's most experienced and senior commanders who taught war tactics and strategy doing in a remote part of eastern Wanni?_______________

by Arush from Wales for Sri Lanka Guardian

(January 05, London, Sri Lanka Guardian) The politically motivated Sri Lankan military was occupied Killinochchi town on 2nd of January. This is due to the biggest ever offensive operation launched by the Sri Lankan armed forces called as "Wanni Operation"; this operation had started in February 2007 and not yet come to an end but dragging on for more than 23 months. However, Killinochchi was vacated by LTTE few days ago and LTTE shift their fighters and heavy weapons to further north east.

In south many towns, crackers were lit and the national flag was hoisted in public places. In Colombo, breaking news on TV, radio and even SMS messages had set the stage earlier. The burst of crackers surpassed the crescendo created by fireworks that signalled the dawn of 2009.

The fall of Kilinochchi is not a new in Eelam wars; it was captured by the army during the third phase of Operation Sath Jaya in September 1996. However, it fell back into LTTE hands in September 1998 when they launched Operation Unceasing Waves II.

So why these din of fire works and so and so…..?

The big fire works and nation wide celebrations come ahead of elections for the Provincial Council for the North Central and Central provinces on February 14. The Opposition and Government are now gearing for forthcoming elections to the provincial councils. And it is to be expected that while the Opposition will rest its case on the ' cost-of-living ', the Government is going to rely entirely on the 'war on Tamils'. Further more, Mahinda was also confronted with political problems at home, from the war victories the Sri Lankan government is trying to stabilize their political grip in South. These are the hidden plans concealed in this celebration.

Sinhala youths graveyard

For the Killinochchi battles SLA lost several hundreds of soldier’s lives in Eelam war III and IV. The casualties occurred during the confrontations in Paranthan and Kilinochchi areas are as follows:

September 1996 (Operation Sathjaya): After the Mullaithivu debacle SLA planned for another offensive to surprise the Mullaithivu defeat in south. The SLA launched Operation 'Sath Jaya', which was carried out in three stages over 70 days, after advancing 12 km and capturing Killinochchi Town, it was halted. During 'Sath Jaya' operation, more than 500 soldiers were killed and several hundreds were injured.

February 1998 LTTE Counter offensive: The government claimed that the more than 100 soldiers Killed, with 41 bodies handed over by the ICRC and more than hundreds wounded.

September 1998 (Operation Unceasing Waves II): The LTTE captured Kilinochchi (54-3 Brigade home) on 29 September and according to the government figures losses totalled 975 soldiers Killed, with 674 bodies handed over by the ICRC and more than 500 wounded. However, the Leader of the Opposition, Ranil Wickremasinghe, rose to open debate in Parliament. He declared that 1500 were killed in action, 2000 more were wounded and a further 100 were missing in action.

Aug 2008 - Jan 2009 Counter offensive: According to the government figures, that more than 500 were killed in action, 1500 more were wounded and handful amount of soldiers were missing in action.

After Operation Unceasing Waves II the Sri Lanka's opposition (UNP) MP late Mr. Ronnie De Mel, speaking on the extension of the island wide emergency in the parliament on October 1998, said that the debacle of the Sri Lankan army in Kilinochchi is the greatest defeat suffered by the Sinhalese in history after the conquest of Anuradhapura by the Cholas. Again Sinhala youths (SLA) were entered into their graveyard to satisfy their political leader’s aspirations.

Why it is great defeat?

In 1998 Killinochchi battle, the LTTE had destroyed the Srilankan army’s military assets in terms of man and materials, there is a real victory that breaks the enemy's will to fight and/or destroy off his/her military assets.

But in 2008, the din of fire crackers that greeted the capture of Killinochci drowned a lone voice that urged the south to consider the fact that the LTTE had withdrawn from Killinochchi with all its military assets and that there is no victory in war unless one breaks the enemy's will to fight and/or destroy a significant part off his/her military assets.

The LTTE had a long experience about the offensive manoeuvres of the Sri Lankan forces from previous battles. On the basis of such experiences they preserved their military asserts for future offensive and defensive strategies.

The head of the LTTE Political Wing, Balasingham Nadesan told the media last week of December that the fall of Kilinochchi would not make any difference since it was another place. The LTTE fighters were vacated from Killinochchi few days before the army arrived after the order came from the LTTE headquarters.

This largest military offensive ever undertaken by the Sri Lankan armed forces aimed precisely at causing critical damage to the LTTE's military assets but which was failed. Why didn't Pirapakaran press the advantage in Killinochchi?

What is the larger picture in Prabaharan mind?

In early part of this decade, the senior commander of the LTTE who was coordinate the artillery units in Op. Jaya Sikurui in the latter part, Colonel Raju told that he had often urged Velupillai Pirapaharan that the Tigers should unleash their recently enhanced artillery and heavy mortar firepower to stop the advance of the Sri Lanka army.

"Every time I asked him he told me to wait, that he would tell me when and where to strike with the big guns. Let them spread out, he would say. But we were worried that the army was getting too close to Mullaithivu. Then one day he called me to headquarters and showed me a point on the map. He gave me a time frame and asked me to make preparations for a concentrated attack there.

When we overran that point, the gains of Op. Jaya Sikurui started falling like nine pins. But again when we were on the verge of sweeping over all of Manal Aaru (Weli Oya) we got orders from headquarters to stop. The LTTE fighters were a bit surprised at this. He and the fellows at the military science division were always studying the larger picture" Later, it was proved in Elephant pass and Wanni battles?

What is the larger picture for now? No body know but this is the million dollar question for every one mind.

Military strategy

According to the military strategy, the SLA has planned to induct seven army Divisions- 57 and 59 Divisions and Task Force 1(Div.58), 2, 3, 4 and 5, which altogether have 100 battalions and 50,000 troops in the final thrust. The seven divisions will launch a coordinate attack in Mullaitivu. In the north two offensive divisions (Div. 53 and 55) are station in the 12 km long Killali – Mukamalai – Nagargovil axis.

But before the Killinochchi fall, the LTTE was successfully tested their counter offensive and offensive capabilities in several fronts. In Iranaimadu, Paranthan, Adampan, Chilawaththai battles shows that the small elite groups of LTTE fighters can make disaster in politically motivated army.

The current battles the SLA has lost the conventional fighting skills at an LTTE in open combat due to three years of small group (Special Forces) warfare in East and North and political motive, which refer to the army conventional mode of action as a "dead walking."

LTTE strategy

Most of the LTTE’s senior military commanders have been moved to the eastern part of the Wanni region. What are the LTTE's most experienced and senior commanders who taught war tactics and strategy doing in a remote part of eastern Wanni?

They are preparing for a major battle. They re-organised and re-structured their military machine to engage in a conventional mode of offensive. Newly formed divisions and heavy weapon units are reserved. The Special Force brigades remain in the background taking part in counter attacks. The strength is calculated not only in terms of numbers but also in terms of factors such as sophistication of equipment, training and morale.

In other hand, during this operation Sri Lankan army suffered unprecedented casualty rate, official figures show more than 1,500 troops were killed and 12,000 wounded in the last year alone. The total figure of the whole operation is much much higher. According to the reliable sources, more than 9 - 10 thousands troops were killed; nearly 23,000 wounded and more than 25,000 soldiers deserted their ranks during the 23 months long current operations.

The geographical size of the areas in which these divisions are concentrated will be difficult to maintain for a long period, the LTTE can easily break these FDLs at any point and catching the SLA in its own trap.

The SLA invaded Vanni with the intention of drawing the LTTE forces into a decisive battle, but LTTE adopted a strategy of retreat-in-depth, pulling back rather than engaging in battle with mass army, and destroying any supply lines that will be a breaking point for all out offensive. Therefore the LTTE counter offensive in Wanni will be hammering the final nail into the Sri Lankan army coffin on the Wanni front. - Sri Lanka Guardian

Go to a fucking english class before trying to be a defense analyst . The crap you write is unintelligible . Have a few more wet dreams for your thalavir saving your skins . You would have been better off paying a prostitute for a blow job . atleast you would have come .. lol

yes arush..u are correct...Ealam is just around the corner.... go visit mahens blog and see how the LTTE strategically/tactically vacated two useless locations.... once Mulative becomes useless it too will be vacated (strategically of course)....

In your wild optimism of what the LTTE will do, you're forgetting that this is a different SLA from its' previous incarnations - a 'New Model Army', if you like.

I wrote this some months ago, but I think it addresses your fantasies. Please feel free to use it. Remember, the force structure and manpower factors still favour the SLA.

If I may add something new to the discussion, the casualty figures for the SLA are not good, but,look at it from well-known military axiom, "Lanchester's N-Squared Law of Combat".

The LTTE still faces annihilation and military defeat if the SLA maintain pressure and concentration. It might seem heartless to reduce the combat deaths of our soldiers to an equation (and that is not my intention), but I'm certain that SLA command are well aware of this military equation.

Basically it states the following points:

"...the attrition rate of the combatants is proportional to the number of troops of the opposing side" and,

..."a superior force should always choose to fight under the N-Squared law, because the end result will leave the victor with a greater number of survivors than when fighting under the Linear law..

For the LTTE to gain its objectives, it will try to do the following .."for an inferior force, there is an opportunity for winning by using a tactical device to split the larger opposing force and annihilate each section of the enemy in sequence.

The LTTE have repeatedly tried to gain local superiority (in firepower, men, etc) to try to defeat the SLA by splitting the larger force. Sometimes it succeeds, but ultimate success for the LTTE is only guaranteed if it can repeatedly split and destroy. I don't think that's likely under the current force structure and leadership of the SLA.

Also, the LTTE are now fighting as a conventional force with the all of the advantages and disadvantages that it brings.

Kiddo, didn't your mama ask you not to consume heroine? What I heard is that you can see the Eelam in the Lala Land if you inhale little more. Can you try that and publish you next Lala Land article too?

[The head of the LTTE Political Wing, Balasingham Nadesan told the media last week of December that the fall of Kilinochchi would not make any difference since it was another place. The LTTE fighters were vacated from Killinochchi few days before the army arrived after the order came from the LTTE headquarters.]

Arush mate... in order to conduct any business, including terrorist business... you need something land or real estate.

If your bunch of pigs are denied the land, from where are they going to fire their guns? From a website?

I saw your article in Lanka guardian. You tamils are incapable of thinking in another mindset. IT is always the tamil tribal mindset. Because of that what you wrote and what you people write are pure Garbage. Garbage in. Garbage out. Think about the ways how you can be fooled.

capturing para, kili, oddu, EPS, etc. is good but i see them only as ENABLERS of reaping a high HARVEST.

but it now looks like we are ONLY intent on capturing places than harvesting.

this is ONE BIG problem.

POINT 2the second BIG problem is LTTE's claim of "tactical withdrawel". we can laugh about it but look at it in the context of POINT 1.

then it is no laughing matter.

ok. look at it another way. LTTE's "tactical withdrawel" may be either,

1. a cover up for its weaknesses and a joke

OR

2. actually a tactical withdrawel

if it is 1, we need not pursue the matter. if it is 2, we are in shitt.

when sakkiliyas attacked EPS in april 2000, we tactically withdrew. had we not withdrawn, our casualties would have been many times more.

the same applies to LTTE in kili, EPS, etc. MORE tigers had escaped than DIED.

what one sakkiliya said about kili is true. (asithri and others please don't jump the gun and call me a MF, etc.)

LTTE DID manage to get away with men and material. PLUS machines. by taking over strategically important places, we are trying to block the 4th M - which is methods. but even i could think of many avenues of escape/attack/sabotage for tigers.

true they have reduced men, machines, material and methods. but what they have is enough to force a stalemate.

look at 1998, 1999, 2000.

in each seperate battle we lost MUCH less than 1,500 (MAX). this is a negligible % of our SLDFs. but we lost hard earned victories.

The gooks used to boast [just like tamilchella did until the SLAF fcked him] and now are writing fiction as fact and 'military and force analysis'. Some of these guys apparentky appear to think their fiction is better than the LTTe's reality.

The LTTe is bushwhacked, and are depleted, fatigued, demoralized and cornered. Even the eladership is in disarray, with splintered loyalties and dependency on each other to escape some others. Banu and Pottu are now foxes on the run, with the SLA's blood hounds on their trail.

SLDF has had over a decade to plan the final frontier in Mullaitivu. The LTTe may know the ground, but so do we. Even more than the average LTTE ground leader, the SLDF has the ability to monitor all of the area in real time and pick where and when to hit. One prime objective would be to flush out all underground bunkers and make Velu stay on the surface, with a large number of body guards, making them an easily visible target. That level of threat will make Velu want to flee and let the movement flounder and die or will die soon either by a military strike or by the hand of an assassin. Either way this is endgame being played out.

The plan for a coup de grace is being built not only by SL military planners, but with expert advice from a number of very interested countries who are also learning from the experience. Those 'Defence attache' visits from time to time aren't for nothing.The LTTE has heard the thunder. The lightening hasn't struck yet.

If that is the case, at this point, I expect 53rd and 55th division to unleash all their might on terrorists in Vanni. The game will be over then. Come on 53rd and 55th, show us your true colors, of course not reckless and foolish.

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