A note on the Sunderland Sandhill council by-election

Many a comment has been made about Sunderland’s Sandhill council by-election result from last night, about what it may or may not mean and whether it is indicative of something or nothing.

An anonymous source told me on Tuesday that the Lib Dems had been working the ward for three months, an abnormal length of campaigning for council by-election campaigns.

Ciarán Morrissey, a Liberal Democrat campaigner from the region who played a part in the campaign, said to me that he is “sceptical of narratives that say this [the Lib Dem gain] was because of Regrexit and Jeremy Corbyn,” instead placing blame on the local council and pointing out their campaign focused on local issues rather than the national picture.

“It was just old-fashioned groundwork. Heavily targeted literature plans, lots of literature, and lots of canvassing. Our messages were clear and were being read and believed, and we put out an absolutely huge volume of Focus, blue letters, etc., including a letter from Steve’s [the candidate] nana, who lives in the ward. We canvassed every day and kept returning to doors where we’d been told where to go, and kept this intensity up until polling day, having been at it since late November.”

Is it the case that the Liberal Democrats may now regularly be outgunning their opponents in manpower and literature when it comes to council by-elections? Perhaps. It doesn’t require confidants and scientific analysis to tell you the Lib Dems regularly go over and above what other parties do in election campaigns they think they can win in.

Is it the case that the Liberal Democrats are (re)gaining support, and so, logically, gaining council seats? Yes. Our poll of polls does note an uptick in support for them, but that alone does not explain the win in Sandhills, a seat they weren’t in contention for even at their height of popularity back in the 2000s.

Does the Lib Dem win in (Leave voting) Sunderland suggest Regrexit is driving votes to a pro-EU party? Very unlikely. National polling currently does not give Regrexit much credence. The subsamples (usual caveats apply) in national polls do note, however, that the Lib Dems are taking one in five of those that voted Remain in last year’s referendum.

My impression is the Lib Dems are in the process of successfully shaking off the negative reputation attained from the coalition years. Their ability to focus on local issues in, shocker, local council by-elections and campaigning hard is paying them dividends. Nationally, they are up in the polls but not by much.

For a better, clearer picture of how national public opinion is shaping up, keep an eye on our polling averages and the coming English, Welsh and Scottish elections of May this year. More on what is up for election soon!

With thanks to those cited on the ground in the area for providing valuable information.

Are you planning on doing any predictions closer to the time on what the results in this years elections will be? Locals, Scottish, Welsh, Mayoral, etc?

Mike17

What I find puzzling is the response of the other parties. The methods used by the Lib Dems are well-known and they are often successful when employed, as in Sandhill. But the other parties seem to behave like rabbits on the road on a dark night; they are dazzled by the headlights of the cars and just sit there waiting to be run over. Why is it that they don’t respond by using the same methods as the Lib Dems to defend themselves. It’s not as if it’s not possible to see what the Lib Dems are up to. They were up to it for three months in Sandhill. (BTW, 3 months is not a particularly long time for Lib Dem campaigning.) So why did the Labour Party in Sunderland not react to what was happening? Is it complacency? Is it that they don’t care about losing one seat? Is it lack of resources? Is it lack of imagination? And i’m not just talking about Sandhill. It happens all over the country. And it’s not just Labour. the Tories are just as bad.

Mike Drew

Because they do not believe in the theory behind the approach. I had a copy of Tory Central Office “In Touch” campaign kit when it was launched (back in the 90s I think) and it was clearly stated that this a way to respond to Liberal Focus campaigning. There was nothing about councillors being in touch with their electorates.
Now the Tories have cotton on to mass lesfleting but they appear to be able to do it when they have large funds to pay for it – often from nation resources.

Mike17

There used to be a theory behind the Liberal (Democrats) methods of election campaigning. It was called ‘Community Politics’. The ALC published a little booklet about it. It might have been written by Gordon Lishman. The use of these methods started in Liverpool and their slogan was ‘Power to the People’. Then there was ‘How to Fight Elections – and win’. I would argue that ‘Community Politics’ and ‘Power to the people’ are long since forgotten about by most Lib Dems, if they had ever heard of them, that is. Nowadays, it is just a matter of identifying local grievances and writing about them in a pamphlet which is then put through people’s doors. People like the idea of being kept informed and they are quite willing to be persuaded that the local Liberal Democrats are working hard for their area as they are the only ones they ever hear from. I’ve see Focus in my area plummet from being a newsletter of absolute integrity to being just another piece of political spin. Anyway, enough of Focus and the Lib Dems. The fact is that you don’t have to believe in any theory to use the methods used by the Lib Dems. All you have to believe in is that winning an election is important. Any Councillor could easily write a few things about what he or his party is doing for an area and then deliver leaflets throughout his ward. There’s no theory required to do that. For some reason the Lib Dems are good at attracting people who will produce leaflets and recruit people to deliver them. The other parties aren’t. The only reason the Lib Dems do well, where they do well, is because they use those methods and the other parties don’t. If the other parties started to use the same methods as the Lib Dems, Lib Dem successes would be nothing like as common as they are. The opposite situation can be seen in the Labour Party in Scotland. From being the dominant party they are in danger of becoming a party of no great significance. In recent years their infrastructure has almost completely disappeared and they relied on people voting for them because they always did. Once a strong challenger appeared the Labour Party house of cards collapsed.