If history repeats, today could be LT’s swan song

LaDainian Tomlinson says staying sharp during the bye week is paramount: "In ’06, we were like, ‘Well, let’s get everyone healthy.’ It didn’t work out to our advantage. That first game, we were a little rusty."
— John R. McCutchen / Union-Tribune

LaDainian Tomlinson says staying sharp during the bye week is paramount: "In ’06, we were like, ‘Well, let’s get everyone healthy.’ It didn’t work out to our advantage. That first game, we were a little rusty."
— John R. McCutchen / Union-Tribune

Among the bargaining chips Tomlinson acquired last spring was a $2 million roster bonus that comes due if he’s still on the Chargers’ roster in March. He is also entitled to $1 million in guaranteed money should the Chargers choose not to pay his $3 million salary for the 2010 season.

Thus while the Chargers are obligated to pay Tomlinson a minimum of $1 million in 2010, keeping him would cost them at least $5 million (plus, potentially, incentive bonuses). That’s roughly the difference between a golden parachute and a slightly used Learjet.

Conceivably, the Chargers could renegotiate a second time to bring Tomlinson’s package more in line with his current production, but such a path would have to be predicated on management’s confidence that LT’s statistical decline was reversible rather than inevitable. Since sentiment has no place in the coldblooded calculations of A.J. Smith, the Chargers’ general manager, a new deal appears doubtful.

One concern that could cause Smith to hesitate is that the 2010 talent pool is more of a puddle at running back. Clemson’s C.J. Spiller is generally considered to be the only senior back worthy of a first-round draft choice, but he figures to be picked long before the Chargers choose. Cal junior Jahvid Best announced yesterday that he will skip his senior year to enter the draft, but Best is less than two months removed from a severe concussion and back injury that ended his season and prevented him from participating in the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl.

Other talent sources can be tapped, but the uncertainty surrounding the NFL’s expiring collective bargaining agreement could constrict the marketplace. Chargers running back Darren Sproles and Tennessee’s LenDale White, the former USC star, are among the veteran backs who would become unrestricted free agents in the event a new CBA is reached before March. Absent a new CBA, though, the number of unrestricted free agents will be reduced, the league’s salary cap will be suspended and the price of prime talent, presumably, will soar.

Under those circumstances, Tomlinson’s contract might appear less burdensome, but it’s not going to qualify as a bargain. Hard to imagine Dean Spanos taking that financial hit for auld lang syne, even as he tries to sell a new stadium.

The happy ending would be John Elway’s, to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy and then retire, but you can’t easily schedule a Super Bowl victory to fit a star’s exit strategy. Moreover, Tomlinson’s plans have historically made for a moving target. For years, he insisted he would not linger past his prime in order to set records. Then, upon renegotiating last March, he reversed his field and announced his intention to chase Smith’s career rushing mark.

“I guess I just kind of got the sense of, ‘Why not?’ ” Tomlinson said. “Why should I, at the end of my career, look back and say, ‘I was this close to Emmitt’s record. Why didn’t I continue to play and try to get it?’ I don’t want to have that regret. I don’t want to have any regrets when I leave this game. I guess that’s kind of what’s changed.”