FRISCO — Federal weather experts this week reaffirmed their earlier projections of an active hurricane season in the Atlantic, with hemispheric patterns similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

Ingredients for tropical storm formation include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is just ahead, from mid-August through mid-October. Continue reading →

Hurricane Erick, with winds up to 80 mph, is hugging the coast of Mexico and heading toward Baja California, where a tropical storm watch is in effect.

By Summit Voice

FRISCO — The fifth named tropical cyclone of the season in the Eastern Pacific has developed into a full-fledged hurricane and threatens parts of Mexico’s west coast with storm surges, high winds and heavy rains.

Hurricane Erick is generating winds of 80 mph and is expected to hug the coast of Mexico for a few more days, according to the National Hurricane Center. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the mainland Mexico coast from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes, while a hurricane watch has been issued from Punta san Telmo to Cabo Corrientes.

Parts of Baja, from Santa Fe to La Paz, are under a tropical storm watch. The center of the storm is expected to approach the southern tip of Baja by late Sunday. The official forecast calls for Hurricane Erick to veer more toward the west before reaching Baja under the steering influence of a strong ridge of high pressure over Mexico and the southwester U.S.

The storm could weaken quickly if it interacts with land or when as moves across cooler waters on its northwesterly track.

FRISCO — Just a few days into hurricane season, the first tropical storm of the year has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and could make landfall in Florida Thursday afternoon or evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Andrea is generating winds up to 40 mph and will deliver 3 to 6 inches of rain across much of the Florida Peninsula, with tropical storm warning already hoisted from Boca Grande north to the Ochlocknee River. A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet is expected from Tampa Bay north to Apalachicola, with a storm surge of 1 to 2 feet expected south of Tampa Bay, according to the first NHC advisory on the system. Continue reading →

The National Hurricane Center is preparing a storm surge warning product to help prepare coastal areas for dangerous conditions.

Climate change, population growth making more people vulnerable to coastal threats

By Bob Berwyn

SUMMIT COUNTY — Though climate change wasn’t mentioned directly during the first panel session at this year’s Glenn Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit in Breckenridge, it may have been the invisible 800-pound gorilla in the room.

Looking back at the 2012 season, National Hurricane Center director Dr. Rick Knabb said this year’s tropical storms were all about the water, rather than winds. Rainfall and storm surges from storms like Isaac and Debby had significant impacts while the centers were far offshore and even though their winds weren’t particularly strong, Knabb said.

Those impacts are only expected to increase in coming decades, both because of the steady rise in sea level, as well as the fact that an ever-increasing percentage of the American population is living in coastal areas. Continue reading →

SUMMIT COUNTY — Following a year that ended up being the warmest on record for the contiguous 48 states, and that included a monster drought and superstorm Sandy, weather experts have a lot to talk about.

This week, broadcast meteorologists will have a chance to meet face to face with climate researchers and other experts during the annual Glenn Gerberg Weather and Climate Summit in Breckenridge, Colorado (Jan. 14-18).

This is the second year the summit is being held in Breckenridge, but the main purpose is stil the same — building relationships between broadcast meteorologists and scientists who are doing groundbreaking research, said conference organizer Dave Jones, president and CEO of StormCenter Communications, Inc. Continue reading →

Tropical Storm Nadine, the fifth-longest-lived storm on record in the Atlantic Basin. Map courtesy Supportstorm.

Hurricane Nadine spins over the open waters of the Atlantic on Oct. 2, 2012. Satellite photo courtesy NASA.

Only four other storms have survived longer during the observed era

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY — Most tropical weather systems make the news when they get really big and threaten coastal areas, but Tropical Storm Nadine, spinning near the Azores, will enter the record books as one of the longest-lived storms in the Atlantic Basin on record.

Nadine has been at tropical or subtropical strength for 21 days. Only four other storms have lasted longer, most recently Kyle, in 2002, which managed to survive for 22 days after forming near Bermuda, looping around for a while, and then cruising up the southeastern seaboard, where tornadoes spawned by storm caused significant damage. Continue reading →

SUMMIT COUNTY — One of the strongest hurricanes of the year has formed in the eastern Pacific and could affect the weather in the southwestern U.S. late in the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Miriam, southwest of the Baja Peninsula, is generating sustained winds of 120 mph and could strengthen a bit more in the next couple of days before weakening as it encounters strong winds from the west.

The storm is forecast to track northward, and even northeastward, which would put the system on track for a landfall along the Baja coast next weekend or early next week, potentially with tropical storm force winds.

Miriam’s outflow is already streaming over the southern tip of Baja. No coastal watches or warning have been issued for the storm, but the system will likely soon pump up the surf along the Baja Coast.

David Petraeus, the former CIA director and top Army general whose affair with his biographer brought down what many considered a bright political future, has agreed to plead guilty to mishandling classified materials.