climate change

London Boroughs only have limited powers to reduce carbon emissions or to improve air quality, despite having obligations to monitor and report on them. For an overview of ‘What is London Doing’ click here and for ‘What is happening under the Mayor’s control’ click here.

Borough Climate Change obligations – each London Borough is charged with including CO2 targets in their plans at Ch 5: London’s Response to Climate Change at policy 5.1 “It is expected that the GLA Group, London boroughs and other organisations will contribute to meeting this strategic reduction target, and the GLA will monitor progress towards its achievement annually.”

But, essentially London Boroughs rely on central regulation and centrally dispersed funds for schemes to make progress. Regulation is in the form of The London Plan. The main schemes from the Mayor of London and from other bodies are:

The Mayor’s Air Quality Fundround 1 was set up, while Boris Johnson was Mayor, as a £20million fund over ten years to support new projects in London boroughs. The report in July 2016 on the first round included funding for ‘clean air apprentices’, greening around schools, electric vehicle car clubs, low emission construction trials and pilot consolidation centres. Use of this fund is noted below as ‘MAQF1’

The Mayor’s Air Quality Fund round 2 , starting in April 2015 awarded £5million across 28 boroughs. Projects included various initiatives and use of this fund is noted below as ‘MAQF2’.

‘Low Emission Neighbourhoods’ (LENS) were announced by the new Mayor Sadiq Khan in July 2016. It will be set up across eight boroughs to come into full effect by the start of 2019 at a cost of £11m. These will have “pollution-busting measures including strict new penalties for the most polluting vehicles, car-free days, green taxi ranks for zero emission-capable cabs and parking reserved for the cleanest vehicles.” Use of this fund is noted below as ‘LENS’.

‘Mini-Holland’ schemes are part of the Vision for Cycling, where London funds are being used to bring improvements to streets and better facilities for pedestrians. The programme will specifically target people who make short car journeys in outer London that could be cycled easily instead. Each borough will consult locally once designs are developed for implementation by the end of 2018. It was hoped that up to £100m shared between the boroughs will help make them as cycle-friendly as their Dutch equivalents. The vision aims to double cycling by 2020 and encompasses joined up cycle tracks.

2) Car Clubs (Enabling the transition to a 50 per cent ULEV fleet by 2025

3) Neighbourhoods of the Future (…the next step in transforming communities to their low emission future.)

Use of this fund is noted below as ‘DfT scheme’, and it is understood that TfL will scope out the precise use of the funds for the boroughs that applied.

LaMiLo (last mile logistics) is part-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) as well as the DfT project above. It “aims to create a step change in freight deliveries by fully considering the ‘last mile’ of a supply chain when planning a freight logistics journey.” use of this scheme is noted below as ‘LaMiLo’.

Local Air Pollution monitoring around London is being encouraged by a Green Party GLA member. Caroline Russell is “collecting data specifically around the North and South Circular so that we can find out if there is a need for the Mayor’s proposed Ultra Low Emission Zone to extend beyond the proposed boundary”

The New West End Company , covers the West End, Oxford St, Regents St and Bond St and recognises the importance of air quality for this area. Its Air Quality Strategy “aims to deliver a significant reduction in air pollution between 2016 and 2020. This business-led action, facilitated by New West End Company, will help to deliver cleaner air for visitors, residents and workers. It complements the action that will simultaneously be undertaken by public authorities, including Westminster City Council and Transport for London.“

At the Borough and Neighbourhood level there are different schemes, essentially trialing ways to reduce carbon and air pollution in London. For instance Camden has just published a Camden Clean Air Action Plan 2016-2018 with a raft of measures within their powers including using parking charges to discourage diesel cars and enforcing anti-idling policies.

Below are the main activities underway – showing that some boroughs seem to be actively doing all they can to tackle carbon reduction and air pollution while some don’t appear to be doing much. Note: the acronyms used below such as MAQF, refer to the schemes explained in the green strip boxes above.

Encouraging more Walking and Cycling

At the pre election Green Alliance hustings that can be listened to here Sadiq Khan promised support for cycling such as planning for storage, hire, & flyovers for cycles. Soon after the election TfL announced a consultation for a new Cycle Superhighway (route 11) from Swiss Cottage to Portland Place.

(photo credit tejvan_pettinger)

In HACKNEY, ISLINGTON and TOWER HAMLETS – the City Fringe proposal includes an emphasis on walking and cycling with improved pavements and cycle routes. LENS scheme

In GREENWICH – the Town Centre and Trafalgar Road proposal includes an incentive scheme to encourage walking and cycling and an extensive series of mini parks throughout the area. LENS scheme

A variety of infrastructure and communication projects to enhance walking and cycling, and reduce lorry movements are part of MAQF round 2:, including:

In ENFIELD, KINGSTON and WALTHAM FOREST TfL seek to “encourage more people to cycle, more safely and more often while providing better streets and places for everyone. The programme will specifically target people who make short car journeys in outer London that could be cycled easily instead.“ as part of the Mini-Holland programme .

Encouraging Clean Deliveries

LaMiLo (last mile logistics) was an EU project trialling “a step change in freight deliveries by fully considering the ‘last mile’ of a supply chain when planning a freight logistics journey” and completed in Sept 2015. At the pre election Green Alliance hustings that can be listened to here Sadiq Khan promised to support and expand consolidation centres aimed at streamlining deliveries and reducing the use of delivery vehicles. For deliveries of small items the use of ‘cargo bikes’ can speed up delivery, avoid parking fines and congestion charges and again reduce the use of delivery vehicles. Where larger vehicles are needed electric vehicles, such as from Gnewt Cargo can be the clean solution.

CAMDEN hosted the LaMiLo project for Council suppliers, working with ENFIELD, WALTHAM FOREST and ISLINGTON councils, and has further funding from the DfT scheme.

In BRENTFORD there is a free cargo bike hire scheme to promote their use. Similar schemes have also been launched by councils in LAMBETH, CAMDEN, HACKNEY and REDBRIDGE.

In WALTHAM FOREST a green courier service has been set up providing a same day delivery service using cargo bikes and electric vehicles. MAQF round 2.

In WESTMINSTER – the Marylebone Low Emission Neighbourhood includes an electric vehicle delivery scheme in conjunction with UPS consolidating freight delivery to cut down on vehicles on the road. LENS scheme.

CROYDON AND SUTTON are planning to introduce a freight consolidation centre and to test ‘virtual parking’ and RICHMOND intends to introduce neighbourhood delivery and servicing. DfT scheme.

Roads with Clean Air

At the pre election Green Alliance hustings that can be listened to here Sadiq Khan promised to pedestrianize Oxford St (300 buses per hour at present), require bike spaces for hospitals, extend “walking to school” routes, TfL “walking champions”, have more Green Corridors, expand King’s Cross type areas and support more quiet ways. In Aug 2016 the LEBZ scheme was announced.

PUTNEY High Street, from Feb 2017, will only have hybrid or diesel buses with top-of-the-range anti-pollutant systems that meet or exceed Euro VI emissions standards. The second route – between Brixton and Streatham – will be converted in October 2017. LEBZ scheme.

In the CITY OF LONDON – the Barbican proposal includes no-idling zones where stationary vehicles must turn off their engines, restricted access to certain streets for all but the cleanest vehicles and green taxi ranks. LENS scheme

In GREENWICH – the Town Centre and Trafalgar Road Low Emissions Neighbourhood proposal includes a series of car-free days in the town centre. LENS scheme

In HACKNEY there is an ‘electric streets’ trial to adapt highway infrastructure to cater primarily for electric vehicles. DfT scheme.

Encouraging Clean Taxis and Private Hire Vehicles

Relying on Taxis instead of personal vehicles does reduce air pollution and carbon emissions, but more so when the Taxis are electric or Hybrid. As well as TfL’s subsidy towards its “target of putting 9,000 zero emissions capable taxis on the capital’s streets by 2020” there are schemes to manage the effects of ‘legacy’ taxis.

(photo is electric Metrocab unveiled at the Transport by Design festival June 2016)

The Licensed Taxi Drivers Association is working with Clean Air for London to speed up London’s response to Air Pollution. as their “members spend long periods of every day exposed to some of the most polluted air in Europe and would welcome any and every opportunity to clean up what is effectively their office.” They share demands for:

In the CITY OF LONDON – the Barbican Low Emission Neighbourhood proposal includes restricted access to certain streets for all but the cleanest vehicles and green taxi ranks. LENS scheme.

financial mechanisms to support drivers in purchasing new greener taxis e.g. structural funding and no VAT on purchases of ‘green’ taxis

smog warnings to protect people and reduce traffic when air pollution is at its worst.

For Private Hire vehicles Uber, in partnership with Nissan and China’s BYD, will offer leasing options for fully-electric cars (BYD E6s and Nissan Leafs) to its drivers, according to Tech Crunch in Aug 2016. These will be in addition to the Toyota Hyrid Prius cars in use by Uber drivers.

Encouraging low carbon, low pollution vehicles

The Ultra Low Emission Capital Go Ultra Low City Scheme Bid to Department of Transport (DfT) predicted that London would have 70,000 Ultra Low Electric Vehicles sold by 2020 and almost quarter of a million by 2025. During the election campaign Sadiq Khan said that he would “Deliver the electric charging infrastructure, in partnership with the private sector, necessary for a major expansion in the use of electric vehicles” in A Greener Cleaner London. Sadiq also supported “Car Clubs as a means of reducing congestion and demand for parking in A Modern and Affordable Transport Network.

In HACKNEY the council’s vehicle fleet is being electrified. MAQF round 2

In HACKNEY, ISLINGTON and TOWER HAMLETS – the City Fringe Low Emissions Neighbourhood proposal includes parking spaces for the sole use of the cleanest vehicles. LENSscheme

In HACKNEY over a dozen streets are going electric with charging infrastructure such as car-charging street lighting, while Harrow will develop a low emission zone offering parking and traffic priority to owners of plug-in vehicles. DfT

In the CITY OF LONDON there was an announcement in Aug 2016 that it will end the use of diesel vehicles across its operations (300 vehicles).

Trees and Greening

In REDBRIDGE and NEWHAM – the Ilford Garden Junction Low Emission Neighbourhood proposal includes a green barrier between the road and pavement to reduce pedestrians’ exposure to fumes, plus other road restrictions. LENS scheme

In GREENWICH – the Town Centre and Trafalgar Road Low Emissions Neighbourhood proposal includes an extensive series of mini parks throughout the area. LENS scheme.

Pollution from Construction Sites

Construction is a major cause of PM10. It is regulated by Local Authorities and the Mayor of London issued a supplementary planning guidance (SPG) for The Control of Dust and Emissions during Construction and Demolition in July 2014 aiming to “reduce emissions of dust, PM10 and PM2.5 from construction and demolition activities in London. It also aims to control nitrogen oxides (NOx) from these same activities by introducing an Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) for non-road mobile machinery.”

For Non-Road mobile machinery (NRMM) used for construction EU directive 97/68/EC will require all NRMM used on any site within Greater London from Sept 2020 to meet Stage III of the directive as a minimum. NRMM used on any site within the Central Activity Zone or Canary Wharf will be required to meet Stage IV of the directive as a minimum. Read More.

The ‘Cleaner Air Boroughs‘ of CAMDEN, HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM, ISLINGTON, LAMBETH, LEWISHAM and WANDSWORTH are working with industry partners and King’s College London on the continuing the London Low Emission Construction Partnership (LLECP) to assess and advise on the construction industry’s impact on air quality. It is a partnership within the MAQF round 2scheme

Save Camden from HS2says that HS2 “has no strategy whatsoever for preventing the air pollution its thousands of daily lorry movements will cause. This increase in pollution, deliberately caused by HS2 and in flagrant breach of Directive 2008/50/EC (ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe)

Designing Low Energy Low Pollution into new buildings

London Boroughs produce their own ‘Local Development Frameworks’ (LDFs) and the mayor can only advise that they “should consider the need to develop more detailed policies and proposals based on the sustainable design principles outlined above and those which are outlined in the Mayor’s supplementary planning guidance that are specific to their local circumstances.”

how to offset carbon dioxide where the targets set out in the London Plan are not met

retro-fitting measures

support for monitoring energy use during occupation

an introduction to resilience and demand side response

air quality neutral

resilience to flooding

urban greening

pollution control

basements policy and developments

local food growing

Each Local Authority will use this guidance but interpret the need for new buildings to be low carbon, low pollution differently.

Retrofitting with Low Energy low pollution

The London Plan supports the Mayor’s strategies for tackling climate change particularly in relation to the built environment. “The biggest challenge for London is to improve the contribution of the existing building stock (80 per cent of which will be still standing in 2050) to mitigating and adapting to climate change.“

Between 2012 and 2016 £839m was allocated across the boroughs for ‘Decent Homes’ for their estates – including measures to reduce carbon emissions and indoor air pollution. In Feb 2016 the Mayor announced a Boiler Scrappage scheme of £400 to replace old and inefficient boilers.

The Mayor’s Consultation on London Air Quality suggested setting up a new boiler scrappage scheme. In Dec 2016 the Mayor announced a £1m Better Boiler Scheme to replace 500 boilers belonging to home owners in receipt of benefits.

In WESTMINSTER – the Marylebone Low Emission Neighbourhood is working to improve building emissions. LENS scheme

Local Renewable Electricity in London

Some boroughs, commercial companies and voluntary groups have actively supported the generation of renewable energy in their Borough eg

In ISLINGTON – electricity has been generated at the Bunhill Row Energy Centre since 2012, from Gas (and also provides communal heating -see below).

Commercial companies such as Thames Water have pioneered innovative renewable energy systems.

In NEWHAM – the Becton Sewage Works in Newham will use ‘fatbergs’ from Thames Water sewers from late 2016 to generate renewable power for Thames Water and also renewable heat for National Grid Gas, using 20C technology.

Voluntary Groups such as Repowering London have demonstrated that local communities have the enthusiasm and the capital to invest in renewable energy.

Repowering London is only one of many London Community Energy Groups who have installed solar panels, but depend on the government Feed In Tariff return for viability.

Switched On London is actively lobbying the Mayor to create the Energy for Londoners programme/company with the scope to introduce Municipal Energy (eg London) to tackle Fuel Poverty, Emissions and Climate Change, boost local economies and build energy democracy.

Heat for London

The London Plan includes Ch5.5 Decentralised Energy Networks “The Mayor expects 25 per cent of the heat and power used in London to be generated through the use of localised decentralised energy systems by 2025. In order to achieve this target the Mayor prioritises the development of decentralised heating and cooling networks at the development and area wide levels, including larger scale heat transmission networks.”

However this can mainly be achieved only through the Local Authorities. For instance they are advised to “require developers to prioritise connection to existing or planned decentralised energy networks where feasible.”

The Mayor tracks progress through the London Heat Map and published “Secondary Heat Study – London’s Zero Carbon Energy Resource” in April 2013. – concluding that “under forecast market and regulatory conditions, about 38% of London’s heat demand could be met by these sources when distributed via heat networks.”

The article says that this site will now manage the 60 E.ON UK district heating systems. The refurbishment cost £26m, but the cost effectiveness of district heating as a UK carbon reduction mechanism is not discussed. It does say that the government is funding heat networks with £320m over five years and the summary of the scheme explains that half of the domestic residents for that pilot will see bill reductions against the ‘counterfactual heat source’.

2015 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, and this December hundreds of world governments will meet in Paris to try to strike a global climate agreement. It will be the biggest gathering of its kind since 2009, and it’s a big moment for the global climate movement.

So far, however, commitments from world governments just aren’t adding up. This has the makings of a global failure of ambition — and at a moment when renewable energy is becoming a revolutionary economic force that could power a just transition away from fossil fuels.

On the other hand, this could be a turning point — a shift in power away from the industries causing the climate crisis and toward people fighting for climate justice. But only if we push for it.

We can’t afford to wait politely for world governments to act. We are the ones that we’ve been waiting for.”

Muswell Hill July Talk

Can there be a deal? Yes – all parties want it.
Will there be a deal? This is about 60% probable.
Will the deal be sufficient? No, but a weak deal will be better than none. See the outcome from the July 2015 Scientific Pre Paris conference

If we continue to send CO2 into our atmosphere reaching a concentration of 450ppm CO2 eq there is just a 50% chance that global warming can be kept to 2°C and therefore only a chance that the consequences shown below will be less severe. source: the International Energy Authority’s Redrawing the Energy Climate Map – World Energy Outlook Special (p13).

The Scientific consensus is that exceeding 2°C is probably catastrophic, not that 2°C is safe.

The 50% chance of warming by 2°C is the same as flipping a coin. Though bookies would take bets from punters willing to lose on these odds, the insurance industry wouldn’t insure on this basis. Would we risk anything else we hold precious at 2-1 odds?

“Mitigation scenarios in which it is likely that the temperature change caused by anthropogenic GHG emissions can be kept to less than 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels are characterized in 2100 by atmospheric concentrations of 450ppm CO2 eq.”

Carbon Brief in Oct 2016 says that hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), according to one “study estimates that, in a business-as-usual scenario, HFCs could rise to 9-19% of projected global emissions by 2050….. Based on the current mix of HFCs being used, their impact is 1,600 times stronger than CO2 per tonne emitted.“

The Montreal Protocol was set up by the UN to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were used as refrigerants but caused a hole in the ozone layer. Carbon Brief explains that HFCs took the place of CFCs but now have to be replaced in turn.

HFC’s are now used in solvents, fire retardants, aerosols, foam agents, air conditioning and refrigeration in ever increasing volumes as developing countries strive to improve their standard of living.

On 14th Oct 2016, in Kigali Rwanda an extension to the Montreal Agreement was approved globally to phase out HFCs – by 2019, 2024 and 2028 depending on the development status of the country.

Alternatives, reported by Carbon Brief include natural refrigerants, such as hydrocarbons, ammonia and carbon dioxide, different HFCs that trap much less heat over their lifespan and another group of chemicals available called “unsaturated HFCs”, or HFOs, which are less potent greenhouse gases than the current mix of HFCs.

A significant part of the Paris Agreement (p2) was “pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” (p2)”

Although the pledges submitted up to December 2015 were not sufficient to achieve this the aspiration is that the revised submissions starting from April 2016 will be improving over time to ensure that the 2°C can be avoided.

Where did the 2°C come from?

In The Climate Casino, William Nordhaus, an economist at Yale, likened our approach to Climate Change to gambling at roulette.

“Every year that we inject more CO2 into the atmosphere we spin the planetary roulette wheel……” and the more we continue increasing the emissions that warm the planet the more the odds are stacked against a favourable outcome.”

The odds of a catastrophic outcome are higher for instance if the Antarctic ice sheet collapses or acidification destroys oceans – but strangely there are risk averse people who want us to take this gamble.

“If there were global temperatures more than 2 or 3 degrees above the current average temperature, this would take the climate outside of the range of observations which have been made over the last several hundred thousand years“

The 50% odds of 3° by 2100

“The ultimate objective…… stabilization of Greenhouse Gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to allow economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

The report looks at many scenarios, with the baseline where we take no action and continue at current emission levels.

But 2°C cannot be accepted as ‘safe’

The Centre for Alternative Technology published Zero Carbon making it Happen launched at COP21 and pointed out that “the expedient and ubiquitous use of speculative negative emissions to expand the available 2°C carbon budgets, implies a deeply entrenched and systemic bias in favour of delivering politically palatable rather than scientifically balanced emission scenarios“

The dangers of Fossil Fuels

“565 gigatons: “Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by mid-century and still have some reasonable hope of staying below 2C,” is how McKibben crisply puts it. Few dispute that this idea of a global “carbon budget” is broadly right.

2,795 gigatons: This is the amount of carbon dioxide that if they were burned would be released from the proven reserves of fossil fuel – ie the fuel we are planning to extract and use.”

Although Coal, for instance, emits 10 times as much CO2 as Onshore Wind governments are still subsidising the use of Coal and energy companies are still investing in the exploration for more fossil fuels.

UK Decc’s Understanding of the Implications

Decc’s The Global Calculator is an open-source model of the world’s energy, land and food systems that allows you to design your own version of the future up to 2050 and see the implications for the climate.

“From the model, it is possible to entirely eliminate CO2 emissions by 2100 by a combination of three things – reducing the percentage travel in urban areas by car from 43% to 29%; reducing the average size of homes to 95m2 from 110m2 today; and for everyone to go vegetarian…..”

“it concerns me that it is more than likely the same people who are responsible for this nonsense are also responsible for the glossy plans to cut Britain’s emissions by 80% by 2050 without destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs; eviscerating the countryside; and reducing living standards, especially of the poor. “

A noticeable local absentee was Mike Freer (Finchley and Golders Green). He did not reply personally to a letter inviting him to meet, but let it be known through his PA that he would be unavailable to meet constituents at the lobby.

Posts

Bloomberg’s carbon clock has a constant countdown towards the catastrophic 450pmm concentration of CO2 and CO2 equivalent in our atmosphere. MCC shows the ‘carbon budget’ and time left to avoid global heating of 2˚C, with a much shorter time by clicking 1.5˚C scenario button.

For recent Events click here. —————————————————————————————————– The Muswell Hill Sustainability Group has an exciting programme of autumn events see here Ongoing: Free Electric Vehicle trials Wood Green businesses and residents can trial an electric vehicle (for free) for up to one week. To find out more or to book a trial contact us on 020 […]

The intentions of the leading UK political parties regarding Climate Change, Energy transition and Air Quality in their 2017 manifestos are investigated. Includes an update on 10th June on the DUP manifesto.

Leonardo Dicaprio’s film is truly scary – not in the usual horror film way, but because it truly captures the devastation already being wreaked on our world. Leonardo sets the scene with the allegory of Bosch’s The Garden of Earthly Delights, where mankind is originally innocent, then enjoys earthly delights and then suffers in a […]

Bringing the Paris Agreement into Force at Marrakesh CLICK HERE FOR THE RUNNING TOTALS OF PARTIES THAT HAVE RATIFIED Update 5th Oct: Sufficient ratifications were received (including the overall EU) for the Paris Agreement to come into force on 4th Nov in time for the COP22 in Marrakesh. See here for UN announcement and here […]

Whilst the UK slips away from the EU efforts to protect the planet, the world continues to turn and global warming continues to go up and up, wreaking the devastation predicted. The EU has been co-ordinating pledges across the 28 members, providing grants, loans, shared research and common standards. Now the UK (and/or England, Scotland, […]

In all the hype and overload of ‘facts’ about the EU there seems little coverage of Climate Change and Air Pollution. Detailed lists of some of the activities and effects of EU legislation eg on Air Pollution are covered at WHAT ARE WE DOING – What is the EU Doing?. For those who believe that […]