North Korea Unlikely to Put on Friendlier Face After General’s Removal

Experts in Japan say the implications of the removal of a high-ranking North Korean general are difficult to interpret, but it could indicate the regime is heading into a period of instability, while its new leader, Kim Jong Eun, tries to strengthen his grip on the military.

Reuters

Kim Jong-Un with the chief of general staff of the Korean People’s Army Ri Yong-ho during a military parade to mark the birth anniversary of the North’s late leader Kim Jong-Il in Pyongyang in February.

The move has spurred a flurry of speculation over the motives behind it, and whether it signals a policy shift for the country’s new leader. The experts say it is too early to tell, but it is unlikely North Korea is about to put on a friendlier face.

“We’ll have to closely watch Pyongyang’s reaction following the decision to assess the real meaning behind the removal,” Hajime Izumi, professor of international relations and a North Korea expert at Shizuoka University told JRT.

But Mr. Izumi said any changes in Pyongyang’s attitude toward the U.S. could be a useful indicator of the significance of Mr. Ri’s removal, which some have described as a purge resulting from political infighting.

“If Pyongyang is condemning President Lee Myung Bak, it wouldn’t be strange at all for it to do the same against President Barack Obama. But so far, its attitude toward the U.S. has been modest,” Mr. Izumi said. “If Mr. Ri’s removal leads to a change in Pyongyang’s stance toward the U.S., that could indicate a larger shift in foreign policy.”

North Korea watchers are also focusing on who will replace Mr. Ri as army chief of general staff.

On Tuesday, the official Korean Central News Agency reported that former army general Hyon Yong Chol had been named vice marshal, one of the posts Mr. Ri held. Japanese media speculated this could mean he will also be promoted to chief of general staff. Little is known about Mr. Hyon, including details of his background or his exact age.