With the top 20, top 10 and top PG for 2011 fantasy basketball in the can, it’s time to turn to an altogether shallower, moodier band of horses: the top 20 point guards for 2011 fantasy basketball. Unlike their shorter, faster PG counterparts, if yo don’t grab the few elite two-guards, you can go a large chunk of your draft skipping the position and making up for it later. Either that or just draft a SF with the ability to shoot the three. I’m pretty sure Yahoo gave all those players SG eligibility. And now you see why these guys are so moody. As has been the pattern so far, these rankings are for 9-cat roto/H2H hybrid leagues.

4. Kevin Martin – Speed Racer played his healthiest season yet last year, missing only two games. Anyone worth his salt would have told you Martin’s health was the single largest determining factor of his fantasy value. Although, anyone aware of how much salt he’s worth is probably not actually worth all that much. I mean, you just got traded for salt, bro. At least get some magic beans tossed in there. Anywoot, taking advantage of his health, Martin led the league in free throws made, while maintaining his extraordinary free throw percentage. He won’t give you much in the way of rebounds or assists and his FG% has never been stellar, but he’s among the five best resources for threes and FT% in the league, while scoring at a solid clip and being at perhaps the most shallow position in fantasy basketball. Your job for the draft is to decide whether he plays another full season or missed half of it again.
Season Projections: .430/.910/2 3pt/22.5 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

5. Manu Ginobili – Admit it, you’d be as excited as me if Manu grew out his hair again now that he’s developed that bald spot. He’s look like Hulk Hogan before he went bandana full-time; or maybe Vigo the Carpathian. I just wanna see something new. I’m restless. And I’m pretty sure a new haircut is the only new trick Manu can coax out of a bag chock-full of pretty solid old tricks. I cautiously ranked Ginobili lower than he ultimately should have been last season because he was 33 and had never missed fewer five games in any season. Until he played in 80 last year. Fine. Be that way. I’ll be a little less cautious now that he’ll be 34. Let’s see what happens. I’ll draft him across all leagues, he’ll miss three months and I’ll be right. My teams will all sink into the pooper, but I’ll be right. Huzzah! For the rest of you, don’t assume he’ll play 80 games again, don’t assume he’ll average a three-year high 30 mpg or 17.4 ppg again, and don’t ass Hume. Hume hates being assed.
Season Projections: .455/.859/1.5 3pt/18 pts/5 rbd/5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

6. Eric Gordon – I’m not entirely sure I’m sold on Eric Gordon’s awesomeness yet. I feel like a got a little taste of it last year, like when ice cream parlors give you a paper cup, a wooden stick and an eighth of a scoop of ice cream so you can sample before you buy. But just as you put the ice cream in your mouth, your eye catches the brand new bright pink Blake Griffin-flavored ice cream and you fixate on that for a second and realize you swallowed the sample without paying attention to how it tasted. So here he is, ranked no.6. A full serving. It better not have pecans in it!
Season Projections: .470/.810/1.5 3pt/20 pts/3 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2.5 tov

7. Arron Afflalo – I understand some folks preferring Spellcheck three spots lower than I have him here. He’s mostly unproven, despite given plenty of time and touches last year – the first year in the “When-Will-Afflalo-Breakout” era. So, no, I wouldn’t eat your lunch for choosing Afflalo later. I would, however, eat your lunch if I was hungry and you got up to go to the bathroom. Don’t look at me like that, you shouldn’t have left the sandwich sitting there knowing how much I love it! Truthfully though, Afflalo showed very minor improvement last year and figures to fit into Denver’s plans far more than last year, when J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony muddied up the role Afflalo was largely expected to fill. It’s a foregone conclusion that if he stays in Denver, the opportunity for big minutes will be there. I’m betting that Afflalo making a meal of it. NOTE: This blurb was written at lunchtime.
Season Projections: .460/.830/1.5 3pt/15.5 pts/4.5 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/1.5 tov

8. Joe Johnson – There was a time not long ago that Double-J was running all over the Eastern Conference, but that time wasn’t last year, or the year before and it won’t be this year. Johnson’s salad days are past him and now he’s just burping up ranch dressing. The SG field is wicked shallow, so he’s still a worthwhile guard to own, but his scoring has dipped in each of the last four seasons, along with his three-point shooting, free throw percentage and assists. Johnson just doesn’t really want to run over anyone anymore. Ninety percent of the time, he’s happy to blend in. I mean, his name is Joe Johnson for Godssake. Put him with Ed Davis and George Hill and you either have the characters from “Glengarry Glen Ross” or the most forgettable set of basketball names in the league. So, congrats Joe, you blended right into the middle of this list.
Season Projections: .450/.810/1 3pt/17 pts/4 rbd/4 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

9. James Harden – I already went over my Harden in 2011 post. Ohmigawd, it was a good one. You shoulda been there!
Season Prediction: .440/.800/1.5 3ptm/14 pts/5 rbd/2.5 ast/1.5 stl/0.5 blk/2 tov

10. DeMar DeRozan – There’s only one guy on this list projected to sink fewer than 60 threes this season and you’re looking at him. Or, if you’re the literal type, you’re looking at the words made up to represent an opinion addressing one of the Toronto Raptors player personnel. DemDer made huge scoring strides last season and was in the argument for most improved player, so it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that he could develop an outside shot. But I haven’t seen it. Show it to me and we’ll talk about a top 10 spot for him.
Season Projections: .475/.819/0 3pt/20 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

12. Stephen Jackson – Little known fact: Stack Jacks had a “play no fewer than 36 minutes per game” clause written into his contract before he left Golden State. This is how he’s managed to average 20 points a game while shooting 41 percent from the floor. Dang. That’s a mighty smart clause he’s got. Let’s hope Milwaukee’s got a “maybe-don’t-chuck-up-a-brick-when-Bogut-is-open-under-the-rim” clause for Captain Jack.
Season Projections: .430/.805/1 3ptm/17.5 pts/4 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0.5 blk/2.5 tov

13. Ray Allen – Just a reminder: Ray Allen is the oldest guy on this list (he’s among the oldest in the league). He also had the lowest 3PA average in 13 seasons. That continues a downward 3PA trend that started the year he arrived in Boston. Still, he set career highs in both FG% and 3P% to make up for it. Allen is shooting less than ever before, but his efficiency has never been better. Literally, his last three seasons have brought his three highest FG% and three of the five best eFG% (adjusted field-goal percentage to account for the fact that threes are worth more than twos) of his career. So you tell me: how much is Ray Allen worth if Ray Allen attempts fewer threes, but makes them at a more efficient rate?
Season Projections: .485/.900/2 3pt/15 pts/3.5 rbd/2.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

14. Wesley Matthews – I’m a little more cautious with Matthews than other ‘perts (I handle him gently, they all toss him around like squirrels with limp mice in their mouths). Matthews is young and, given the opportunity last season, illustrated a streaky ability to shoot the ball from all distances (well, many distances, anyway). But even if that streakiness goes away and he shoots .500 from the floor, he still doesn’t do much else for you fantasy-wise. It still appears as if he’ll lose a little time to Brandon Roy, Batum is close to a breakout and Gerald Wallace is going to see some touches, which means Matthews will see a few fewer. (Stutterer!) Season Projections: .470/.890/2 3pt/15.5 pts/3 rbd/2 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

15. Jason Terry – Ugh. I hate drafting Jason Terry. Wanna know how to ensure I don’t even consider a trade offer from you? Throw in Jason Terry. I once rejected a Terry offer so hard that it spun the Internet backwards like Superman reversing the gravitational rotation of the Earth. It happened so quickly and forcefully, the guy who did it blacked out for three weeks and had to redo an entire semester of college. It always feels like I’m giving up on my fantasy chances when I settle for him as my second (or God forbid, first!) SG. And he’s the 16th best option in fantasy basketball. Seriously, just stick Tyreke Evans in this spot and be done with it. That being said, he’s a fine option for threes and FT%! Season Projections: .455/.870/2 3pt/15.5 pts/2 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

16. Jared Dudley – I already went over my Dudley in 2011 post. But you already read it. Wait, did you? You better grab 30 of your closest friends and re-read it aloud to them just to be sure. Season Projections: .475/.765/1.5 3pt/14 pts/4 rbd/2 ast/1.5 stl/0 blk/1 tov

17. Jason Richardson – In his 25 games with the Suns last season, he was right on target of being a value pick in the fourth round, averaging a .470 FG%, 19.5 points and 2.5 threes per game. Then he was traded to the suckhole Magic and started suckholing™ (.430 FG%, 13 ppg, 2.5 3pm – I like hyperbole!). I don’t love Richardson’s bounce back odds. …He averaged career-lows in rebounds, assists and blocks and hasn’t averaged 16+ points in two seasons. To add insult to injury (like not eating the whole burger after you slaughtered, sliced, and cooked the cow), Richardson tends to produce in bunches. As anyone who owned him will tell you, it’s impossible to know when those bunches would start or end. Season Projections: .445/.750/2 3pt/13.5 pts/3 rbd/3.5 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

18. George Hill – During last year’s preseason, I picked San Antonio Hill (which, I believe is, like, three blocks from the Alamo) to win The Most Improved Player Award by year’s end. By December, I dropped him and his 26 mpg. Then, this preseason, I again assumed San Antonio Hill was set for a bigger role. Poppovich was big on the kid and there aren’t many basketball people whose opinion I trust more than Popps. Then San Antonio Hill became Indiana Hill, which I believe is the hash house one goes to when they’re Indiana Jonesin’. There’s no telling what is going to happen in Indy right now. Hill may find tons of minutes or reach another roadblock. He’s efficient enough, multi-tooled enough and qualifies for a shallow enough position that I’d give him the benefit of the doubt toward the end of your draft. Yes, guys in the top 20 of this position shouldn’t be taken until at least round nine.
Season Projections: .455/.870/1 3pt/13 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/1.5 tov

19. Jordan Crawford - Andray Blatche ain’t the only one without any idea what’s going on with the Wizards. It’s John Wall’s team. Check. After that? McGee? ‘Shard? Blatche? It all sounds like what one finds in their underoos after a night of spicy Mexican cuisine. Then there’s the likely platoon awaiting the Wizards’ two-spot. A year ago, this guy wasn’t on any fantasy radar. Then he took advantage of a series of injuries and exploded with the basketball; albeit inefficiently, but still … I fear the two-gaurd situation will be like the Jose Calderon-Jarrett Jack platoon (or Jose Calderon-Jerryd Bayless platoon) from last year. Young will start and Crawford will come off the bench, maybe it switches up every five games or something until the fates knock something off its axis. Maybe that means Young’s ‘fro catches fire in a freak skillet accident, maybe Michael Jordan chokes Crawford to death for his insubordination the next time D.C. is in Charlotte. Or maybe one of them gets traded because this aggression will not stand, man. Either way, both should be owned. Only one will probably be kept.
Season Projections: .440/.800/1 3pt/15 pts/3 rbd/3 ast/1 stl/0 blk/2 tov

need some help w/ keepers.Just took over a team in a 10 tm h2h league.There were two new owners and whoever showed up first got to pick which team to take over.One team had Howard,Melo,Lebron,Noah and P. Gasol….I got the other one.Anyway….

I have Kobe,Steph Curry and Ibaka;I need two more keepers between Scola,McGee,Stephen Jackson,Brand,Kidd and Parker.Based on how old most of them are should I just go w/ Scola and McGee?

@JT: Yeah, Kidd/AK47.Crawford might be the way to go. I might consider switching out Mo for Crawford (more for future seasons than for this one) but that’s a close call. RE: Klay – I’m really not big on any of this year’s rookie class. I wouldn’t pass up any proven option for him. But perhaps in the 13th or 14th round, you’ve got nothing to lose taking a flier.

@Tony: Monta would be the obvious choice, but I don’t see the Warriors getting CP3 without giving up Curry and I don’t really see them doing that. (The Clippers can offer Gordon, Jordan and two picks for Chris Paul, which likely beats any deal Golden State, New York or Boston can make. Orlando and New Jersey, on the other hand…)

@Adam: yeah i just read an article on espn about the Hornets want Stephen Curry or Gordon from LAC. I agree no way GS parts with curry for a guy who wont resign with them. Paul’s not going anywhere if these teams can’t get a committment outta him. Any franchise that deals away young pieces like the ones mentioned for a CP rental is insane.

Curry’s a keeper of mine so I wanted to see him paired with CP, and monta gone to stop hoggin the ball!

@DWRlovesKAR_OLR: I wouldn’t punt the position completely, but if I missed out on the upper tier of SGs, I’d switch up my method and wait until I found a deal in the middle rounds or, as a last resort, take big risks in hopes of hitting the jackpot (Kemba and Kyrie might be good examples of this as both teams have hinted that the rookies will be playing alongside their elders as much as they will be relieving them). It’s risky, but it’s better than blowing a third-round pick on Joe Johnson. Also, I’m dropping the Players to Target article tomorrow.

@Adam
Good news for Greg Monroe Owners in 2012!
Pistons coach Lawrence Frank has suggested using Greg Monroe as a “hub” on offense this year.
It’s another way of saying that Frank intends to run more of his offense through Monroe, after he got most of his points off put-backs and “improvisational cuts” to the basket last year. Monroe has also reportedly improved his mid-range game, and is poised for a nice boost in production after averaging 12.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks as a starter last year.
Source: NBA.com
Dec 7 – 4:30 PM

@Adam
I know your a fan of Mr Monroe in 2012!
Pistons coach Lawrence Frank has suggested using Greg Monroe as a “hub” on offense this year.
It’s another way of saying that Frank intends to run more of his offense through Monroe, after he got most of his points off put-backs and “improvisational cuts” to the basket last year. Monroe has also reportedly improved his mid-range game, and is poised for a nice boost in production after averaging 12.0 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks as a starter last year.
Source: NBA.com
Dec 7 – 4:30 PM

Adam , I have CP3 in a keeper league where we keep three players , Love and Westbrook are his mates…….I am seriously hoping he doesn’t land in lakertown and thus trend his value downward.
More importantly what is the medical diagnoses with his knee , last year they were talking a bone on bone situation …..now there is barely a word uttered , has anyone read something we could term definitve about his knee?? ……..with a compressed season in the offing I am more than a little concerned with CP3 as an injury risk.

@DWRlovesKAR_OLR: I’m as excited about Monroe this year as I was about Beaubois last year. So, um, uh-oh.

@d2bnz: Funny you should mention it. I haven’t heard anything other than he feels okay playing without a brace. But a chronic injury is a chronic injury. BUT, here’s an interesting piece on the myth of short seasons and injuries –> tinyurl.com/bsggoqn

I’d go Tristan Thompson, Irving, Williams (maybe Kemba fourth). I still have to familiarize myself more with these guys. The lack of spotlight due to the Lockout has really slowed me down on this entire class.

Thanks for the referral to the short season article , but my emphasis was more aimed at the back to back to back games and the fact that every team is going to have stretches in the schedule where this occurs.
Myself. I am now finding that my squash playing frequency is having to be limited thanks to age and past injuries , no longer can I play the weekend tournaments where three to four matches are required , thus it got me thinking how someone like CP3 was going to cope with the season ….of course there is one major wildcard in my thinking …..no way have I had access to the medical expertise that Chris and others have had .

I’m wondering if you could do like a round by round analysis by positions…

So I could get an idea of where theres a surplus or scarcity of talent in different rounds.. knowing this I could go for players knowing that I’ll be able to fill the positional gap in my lineup in a later round.

@d2bnz: Good point. I wonder if we’re going to see a lack of close games. Perhaps coaches will pull the plug early if their team is, like, down by 10 with six minutes to go, instead of keeping the starters in there and trying to fight back. Maybe not.

@thegrave: I’m planning on releasing a draft tiers list organized by each position) in the next week or so. It’s not exactly what you’re looking for, but it will indicate when to pull the trigger and when to hold off.