Monday, July 5, 2010

June Averages

Time to look at June's polling. Seven national polls were taken during this month (three fewer than last month), totaling about 12,661 interviews. Here are the results we get at the national level, with the difference from last month's average in brackets.

After gaining 1.6 points in May, the Conservatives have dropped 1.9 points, back below 33%. But the Liberals also take a step backwards, though they did have a small gain last month. The NDP gains a full point, but they had lost 0.7 points last month so this is a bit of a reset. The Green gain is equal to May's losses.

The seat projection for these results is as follows, with the difference from last month in brackets:

The Conservatives fall back down six seats, matching ThreeHundredEight.com's current projection. The Liberals are steady at 91 seats, while the Bloc is up two. The NDP makes the biggest gain, and now have 35 seats.The regional results, with difference from last month in brackets:

The Tories are down big in the province, but it certainly wasn't to the benefit of the Liberals, who are also down significantly. Instead, the NDP gained half-a-point while the Greens gained 3.5 points. They are now nipping at the Liberals' heels.

The Conservatives drop, but drop less than they gained in May, so they are in a decent position. The Liberals are down, marking losses of over two points in the last two months. The NDP is also down, but are now much closer to second place in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The Green gain is generally a reset of May's losses.

The Conservatives take 66 in the West (one fewer than in May), while the Liberals win 14 in the West and North (also down one) and the NDP wins 15 (up two).

The Conservatives drop two points, obliterating their good 2.1-point gain from May. The Liberals don't benefit, however, dropping 0.1 points. But they have been pretty stable, as this is only a loss of 0.3 points over the last two months. The NDP makes an important gain.

The Bloc is up almost two points, putting them at over 40%, the first time they've been at such a level since February 2009. The Liberals lose over a point, and are falling away. The Conservatives have dropped big, and are now in "trouble" territory. The NDP are stable, but at a very good level for them.

The Conservatives are up again, almost six points in all over the last three months. They've taken the lead over the Liberals, who are down 2.5 points after gaining one point in May. The NDP is down, yet again. They've really been disappearing in Atlantic Canada. The Greens have re-gained their May losses.

The Liberals win 18 seats (down one), the Conservatives win 11 (up one), and the NDP wins 3 (unchanged).Of the five parties, the Liberals performed the worst in June. Their net loss in the six regions was 7.6 points, but more important they did not make a gain anywhere. Big losses in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, the Prairies, and British Columbia hurts. The only silver lining is that their loss in Ontario was marginal.

The Conservatives also had a very bad month. Their net loss was 7.7 points, but they did gain in Atlantic Canada. Their losses in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia - Canada's three battleground provinces - should be very worrisome for them.

We then transition into the winners, with the NDP having a net gain of 0.8 points. They were up in four regions and down in two. Their gain in Ontario was a good size and is good news, but the party should be concerned with their performance in Atlantic Canada.

Then it is the Bloc, who had a gain of 1.9 points in Quebec. They are in a very, very good position in the province. While 40.6% is good considering their electoral performance in 2008, their real strength is found in the weakness of their opponents.

Finally, the Greens have to be considered to have had the best month. Their net gain was 9.9 points, with significant increases in support in Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and, most importantly, British Columbia. But they still aren't in a position to elect a single MP.

35 comments:

First their loss of deputy leader to the BQ, then financials showing them virtually bankrupt and their organization in shambles, and now video surfacing of May saying she'd never run anywhere but in Nova Scotia and declaring her undying love and allegiance to the province.

Any model based on provincial polling levels will have a hard time integrating that sort of critical number, but SGI is looking more and more likely to go Green in the next election. And don't forget Guelph.

John, right now you have to be aware that the Greens are organizationally screwed, right?

Besides, I could report 85% support during my canvasses in Burlington too, and I'd be telling the truth. Thing is - people aren't necessarily set on a decision, nor are they even telling the truth, this early on in the game. I guarantee if you asked Renee Hetherington's campaign or the NDP candidate what their "canvass poll" support was, you'd get the same numbers.

Anyways, the main thing to take from the recent polls is simply this: neither of the parties who can win government (Conservatives and Liberals) are in a respectable position right now. That's a big issue for us.

Volkov: John, right now you have to be aware that the Greens are organizationally screwed, right?

Umm... speaking from inside the party, no, I wasn't aware of that.

The support we're getting in our riding from the central office is the best we've ever had, by far. We're on warning for a fall election and the Green Machine is ready to lead us through it as never before. We have a regional team working on local issues, events and election initiatives. At the riding level we're planning on the largest campaign we've ever had, reaching voters in ways we've never done before.

That's what I see from where I sit. Your perspective may give you insights I've missed.

I believe he has it fundamentally backwards; the Tories would be crazy to trigger a trip to the polls any time soon. However, the fact they're preparing for an election means they expect the plug to be pulled by somebody. I await the predicted "minor cabinet shuffle" with some interest.

Volkov, any idea when Vision Grit will be released? That will be the harbinger of the countdown.

I want to acheive results I like. Raising the tone (or changing the tone - "raising" suggests some sort of value judgment I'm not willing to make) is valuable only if it leads to that outcome.

I don't think the tone itself has any intrinsic value, no. And given that you want to do it in order to incrase Green voter turnout, I'd suggest that you don't either. You're using it as a tool, just as I would if I found it advantageous.

Ahhh Gas prices yes. Peter, Ontario despite a myriad of other taxes on gas and diesel didn't charge PST on motor fuels. Now they do and the 8% tax is levied on top of all the other taxes in a litre of gasoline or diesel. Tax on tax. Don't blame Harper for this, blame McGuinty. He decided what was taxed. We also now pay PST in the form of HST on heating fuels. The very necessities of life are being taxed by greedy, gutless governments. Oh and don't forget electricity. Including the "green fees" the price of electricity will be up 20% including HST.

We can go back to simpler times of a horse and carriage, wood stoves, and no electricity or we can pay HST. McGuinty has decided to tax the very things we need to carry on life as we know it. Turf the man!!!! And find someone who will promise to rescind the HST in 2016.

Ira: I want to acheive results I like. Raising the tone (or changing the tone - "raising" suggests some sort of value judgment I'm not willing to make) is valuable only if it leads to that outcome.

This is unsettling if it means what it appears to mean. Is a more representative and effective Parliament a "result you like" or an impediment to that result? What about decisions based on reasoned debate?

No. Democracy is a form of government. The form itself has no intrinsic value.

If the people (generally) are crazy and decide that those who disagree with them are the be executed, that's a bad outcome, but it's consistent with democracy.

Democracy is beneficial only if it produces good outcomes in governance, and the structure of Canada (with the different regions having markedly different opinions about how government should operate) ensures that a democratic approach will tend to alienate at least some of the country all of the time.

Furthermore, democracy is antithetical to individual freedom, as the majority always has to power to impse its will on the idiosyncratic. But just because someone's opinions are uncommon or unpopular doesn't make them wrong. It just makes them different.

Do you value democracy in and of itself? Why? What does democracy, on its own (regardless of the choices the voters make), do for us?

Ira democracy has value outside of the legislative process becuase it gives people a way to express themselves non-violently.

This cannot be overlooked.

However, I disagree with John that the tone should be raised.

If politicians are seen as knights in shining armour they are likely to get too full of themselves and feel they have free reign to impliment transformational policies.

I kinda like having the entire political class being kept on a short lease.

Then again, I wonder if John isn't advocating a higher politics for that very reason ?

So they have the credibility and stature to bring in a coalition or radical green policies. Where as dysfunction and inaction tends to benefit small government types who would rather legislators cease and desist.

Ira: Democracy is a form of government. The form itself has no intrinsic value.

Hmmm. Definitely not a Green, whose values include* that all elected representatives are committed to the principles of transparency, truthfulness, and accountability in governance* that all electoral systems are transparent and democratic, and that this is enforced by law.

And yet not a card-carrying Conservative, since that requires actively supporting a set of founding principles including beliefs in* ...the supremacy of democratic parliamentary institutions and the rule of law;* ...the institutions of Parliament and the democratic process.

So the statement quoted at the top of this comment is grounds for tearing up a membership card in either of the Green or Conservative Parties. From this it can be deduced that Ira is neither, numerous comments regarding the Conservatives notwithstanding.

(On reflection, membership in the Green Party never really looked like a slam dunk assumption.)

Do you value democracy in and of itself? Why? What does democracy, on its own (regardless of the choices the voters make), do for us?

Well, each time a country tries to move beyond our quaint notions of western democracy the exercise seems to end in tears. Winston Churchill apparently shared that view but of course, he was a Tory and we all know what they think.

Shadow: Where as dysfunction and inaction tends to benefit small government types who would rather legislators cease and desist.

It does appear that this may have been a deliberate policy of the current government. This has been one of the least productive Parliaments in Canadian history.

We should always bear in mind Napoleon's dictum, "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetence." There's certainly ample evidence for the latter. Yet the suspicion lingers...

Shadow: Remember, [the Conservatives are] the minority party. They MUST behave like insurgents.

Would that expression describe Mike Pearson during his very productive minority governments?

One could claim that Ignatieff and Layton are a lot nastier than Diefenbaker and Douglas--but they're not. Stephen Harper is simply no Lester B. Pearson.

Since neither of us think the current Parliament is so ineffectual mainly from incompetence, it looks like we also agree that Harper is deliberately doing as little as possible--even if we disagree as to why. The history books may have a better perspective but as current events, the claim is persuasive.

John so you object to a specific point on that list ? Good, ignore it and look at the other 30 or so items. Its also only a partial list by the way, I can think if countless technical, policy oriented changes that aren't flashy enough for the average person to care about.

As for Ned Franks that article was published before the session even ended!

In fact its still happening as we speak because the senate is still sitting. Since the article was written a last minute deal on pardon reform was passed.

A once in a generation refugee reform bill was passed (something that gov'ts have been trying to do for 20 years now.)

And by next week the omnibus budget will be passed. At 900 pages its "stuffed" with the equivalent of a dozen or so bills.

Don't get me wrong John. I completely agree that a majority Harper government would be able to get more done. In fact i'm all for it!

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Details on the methodology of the poll aggregation and seat projections are available here and here. Methodology for the forecasting model used during election campaigns is available here.

Projections on this site are subject to the margins of error of the opinion polls included in the model, as well as the unpredictable nature of politics at the riding level. The degree of uncertainty in the projections is also reflected by the projections' high and low ranges, when noted.

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