Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

Time Person of the Year (see previous thread) -- PP/Betfair have cut my idea of the winner, John McCain, into 11/1 and Hills have not yet priced him up. The known unknown is whether anything significant will happen in the next couple of months, especially with regard to the Mueller investigations.

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

"After Brexit" is a highly ambiguous term. Even after St. Gammon's Day next March that will only be the start of the Brexit journey. I think she'll be knifed in a very messy and bloody coup shortly before thr 2022 GE.

Very good point about the Spanish having a veto over Gibraltar (not to mention Cyprus and the British territorial bases there which are also a hot potato) , I am not convinced the EU member states will let a deal be put in place for a whole host of reasons - therefore I cant see a deal being done that is acceptable to the UK parliament, a host of European institutions and also national bodies from Madrid and Dublin. In other words fine words from all concerned but at best a fudge which pleases no-one - I cannot see TM being in office one year from now...for me the million dollar question is who and under what circumstances does she go?

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart and realise that they get one chance and they need to pick their moment. That will come sometime around the point that it is obvious that Chequers is completely dead and that massive compromises are about to be made that cross the red lines, the most important one being customs union membership (eg no trade policy). Once it is obvious that May is stuck, the ERG will move.

I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart and realise that they get one chance and they need to pick their moment. That will come sometime around the point that it is obvious that Chequers is completely dead and that massive compromises are about to be made that cross the red lines, the most important one being customs union membership (eg no trade policy). Once it is obvious that May is stuck, the ERG will move.

I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.

The main compromise will be more services rules alignment, there will still be a token promise we can do our own trade deals. There can be no move to CETA which gets past Barnier, the Irish government and the DUP as was clear yesterday.

I do agree though if May went only a hard Brexiteer would replace her, maybe Davis by coronation

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart and realise that they get one chance and they need to pick their moment. That will come sometime around the point that it is obvious that Chequers is completely dead and that massive compromises are about to be made that cross the red lines, the most important one being customs union membership (eg no trade policy). Once it is obvious that May is stuck, the ERG will move.

I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.

ERG is not a block vote and I am sceptical of media reports that it will act as one to remove Theresa May or elect her replacement.

Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.

So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.

More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.

ERG is not a block vote and I am sceptical of media reports that it will act as one to remove Theresa May or elect her replacement.

Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.

So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.

More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.

But we agree Theresa May will lose a no-confidence vote.

No, a customs union cannot be fudged. A customs union is a binary thing - you are in it, or not in it. By definition, everyone has to follow the same rules. You cannot have someone following different rules or it is not a customs union any more. Just calling it 'a' customs union is a nonsense (thought up by the Labour Party which says it all). If we are in a/the customs union, we cannot set our own tariffs, so we cannot have our own trade policy, which causes pretty much the rest of the Leavers in the Cabinet to resign - this is why May has banked on the tortuous (and impossible) customs partnership.

FOM can be fudged but nobody will be fooled, and therefore it won't work.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart and realise that they get one chance and they need to pick their moment. That will come sometime around the point that it is obvious that Chequers is completely dead and that massive compromises are about to be made that cross the red lines, the most important one being customs union membership (eg no trade policy). Once it is obvious that May is stuck, the ERG will move.

I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.

The main compromise will be more services rules alignment, there will still be a token promise we can do our own trade deals. There can be no move to CETA which gets past Barnier, the Irish government and the DUP as was clear yesterday.

I do agree though if May went only a hard Brexiteer would replace her, maybe Davis by coronation

Does not solve the problem. If we are aligned in services, then we have to be in the CU as well to solve NI, then Barnier says we cannot cherry pick and we have to accept FOM, then we have not left and May will get destroyed.

You need to read what Barnier and Junker are saying. They don't want this deal, they want an FTA. And as soon as they back down on NI, they can have it. Just as well the ERG came up with a perfectly credible and well thought out plan as to how that can happen.

BTW did you not notice the DUP throwing their weight behind the ERG paper and CETA?

Thanks for the link. I have read some of her books and will definitely read this later.

At a more mundane level, I am in Europe now, and the extent to which almost every park we have visited (which is a fair few, as I travel with a dog) is now almost a refugee camp and considered off limits by many locals is really quite striking. In England we are concerned about mostly employed and hard working east Europeans when European cities have large numbers of unemployed Africans hanging around day and night. It is hardly surprising there is a political reaction.

ERG is not a block vote and I am sceptical of media reports that it will act as one to remove Theresa May or elect her replacement.

Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.

So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.

More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.

But we agree Theresa May will lose a no-confidence vote.

No, a customs union cannot be fudged. A customs union is a binary thing - you are in it, or not in it. By definition, everyone has to follow the same rules. You cannot have someone following different rules or it is not a customs union any more. Just calling it 'a' customs union is a nonsense (thought up by the Labour Party which says it all). If we are in a/the customs union, we cannot set our own tariffs, so we cannot have our own trade policy, which causes pretty much the rest of the Leavers in the Cabinet to resign - this is why May has banked on the tortuous (and impossible) customs partnership.

FOM can be fudged but nobody will be fooled, and therefore it won't work.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

By default, for No Deal.

Although Lisa Nandy yesterday saying she would vote for Chequers to avoid chaos is perhaps a straw in the wind that sensible Labour MPs recognise they will be tarred with a No Deal Brexit brush just as much as the Governmet, if there is no deal to vote on. Perhaps more so as their Remain-heavy support base question "Why didn't you do something to stop this madness?"

But will Theresa May still be around if the only way she can get a crappy fudged BINO deal through is on the back of Labour support/abstentions?

ERG is not a block vote and I am sceptical of media reports that it will act as one to remove Theresa May or elect her replacement.

Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.

So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.

More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.

But we agree Theresa May will lose a no-confidence vote.

No, a customs union cannot be fudged. A customs union is a binary thing - you are in it, or not in it. By definition, everyone has to follow the same rules. You cannot have someone following different rules or it is not a customs union any more. Just calling it 'a' customs union is a nonsense (thought up by the Labour Party which says it all). If we are in a/the customs union, we cannot set our own tariffs, so we cannot have our own trade policy, which causes pretty much the rest of the Leavers in the Cabinet to resign - this is why May has banked on the tortuous (and impossible) customs partnership.

FOM can be fudged but nobody will be fooled, and therefore it won't work.

The 8/11 on Theresa May still being PM on 1/4/19 looks very good value. Who would want to get the job before then?

I agree that looks the best value by some distance. I don't think that there will be any change of leadership until after Brexit is a done deal (and maybe not even then) but it occurs to me that even if there was a challenge before (maybe because the deal was done and dusted but a lot of people didn't like it) it is quite possible that May will remain as a caretaker at that date pending the outcome of the contest.

Thanks for the link. I have read some of her books and will definitely read this later.

At a more mundane level, I am in Europe now, and the extent to which almost every park we have visited (which is a fair few, as I travel with a dog) is now almost a refugee camp and considered off limits by many locals is really quite striking. In England we are concerned about mostly employed and hard working east Europeans when European cities have large numbers of unemployed Africans hanging around day and night. It is hardly surprising there is a political reaction.

That's interesting, where were you? I have read about this issue in Germany but not elsewhere. Saw nothing like it in Holland or Italy (far north, no doubt the south is different).

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Well right, this is the thing. Parliament can't agree on anything, the cabinet can't agree on anything, the PM can't agree on anything with herself, and the main thing the EU are agreed on is that they don't agree with anything the British might want to do. But the alternative is bad for everyone in the EU, and terrible for Britain and Ireland. So everybody agrees to kick the can.

What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.

Very good point about the Spanish having a veto over Gibraltar (not to mention Cyprus and the British territorial bases there which are also a hot potato) , I am not convinced the EU member states will let a deal be put in place for a whole host of reasons - therefore I cant see a deal being done that is acceptable to the UK parliament, a host of European institutions and also national bodies from Madrid and Dublin. In other words fine words from all concerned but at best a fudge which pleases no-one - I cannot see TM being in office one year from now...for me the million dollar question is who and under what circumstances does she go?

The lack of agreement on what sort of Brexit we are even asking for makes a full agreement impossible, unless it is completely off the shelf like EEA and even that would be tight.

In reality the most likely outcome is Withdrawal Agreement is the only bill to vote on, and the long term outcome done on a lick and a promise. This gives us a further 2 years to argue over all options from Seppuko Brexit to EEA plus. I reckon the only decent Brexit bet is on the March withdrawal date at 1.6 on BFX.

You need to read what Barnier and Junker are saying. They don't want this deal, they want an FTA. And as soon as they back down on NI, they can have it. Just as well the ERG came up with a perfectly credible and well thought out plan as to how that can happen.

BTW did you not notice the DUP throwing their weight behind the ERG paper and CETA?

We either have a proposal which maintains a truly open border in Ireland. Or we do not have a proposal. It doesn't matter what the ERG or the DUP think - the Commission will veto as will the Irish. "Screw Ireland" is not a "credible and well thought out plan"

Don't leave.Exit to EFTA/EEACrash out and discover the WTO doesn't work as claimed by ERG

Thanks for the link. I have read some of her books and will definitely read this later.

At a more mundane level, I am in Europe now, and the extent to which almost every park we have visited (which is a fair few, as I travel with a dog) is now almost a refugee camp and considered off limits by many locals is really quite striking. In England we are concerned about mostly employed and hard working east Europeans when European cities have large numbers of unemployed Africans hanging around day and night. It is hardly surprising there is a political reaction.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

There are three potential choices for a vote in the next six months: Withdrawal Agreement, probably including Northern Ireland backstop and two year standstill "transition"; chaotic no deal; delay. The question is whether the government can get the votes for the first. DUP and Labour have said no to the first. I suspect Labour might go for delay. This would require the acquiescence of the EU as well as some support from conservatives.

If we assume this is accurate (which, of course, it may not be) it would mean that if the ERG settled collectively on a non-Boris candidate, then, with the new group, they'd have enough members to depose May. Were they so inclined:

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart ve.

I personally think May will resign when talks hit the buffers - she is too proud to move to CETA.

The main compromise will be more services rules alignment, there will still be a token promise we can do our own trade deals. There can be no move to CETA which gets past Barnier, the Irish government and the DUP as was clear yesterday.

I do agree though if May went only a hard Brexiteer would replace her, maybe Davis by coronation

Does not solve the problem. If we are aligned in services, then we have to be in the CU as well to solve NI, then Barnier says we cannot cherry pick and we have to accept FOM, then we have not left and May will get destroyed.

You need to read what Barnier and Junker are saying. They don't want this deal, they want an FTA. And as soon as they back down on NI, they can have it. Just as well the ERG came up with a perfectly credible and well thought out plan as to how that can happen.

BTW did you not notice the DUP throwing their weight behind the ERG paper and CETA?

Barnier has raised no objection to work permits on arrival which are similar to the transition controls Blair rejected in 2004. The EU noises last night dismissed the ERG plan straight away as did the Irish Foreign Minister. The DUP back the ERG plan and CETA for the whole UK, Barnier only for mainland GB

ERG is not a block vote and I am sceptical of media reports that it will act as one to remove Theresa May or elect her replacement.

Red lines? Customs union can be fudged provided we join *a* not *the* customs union, or even if we just agree regulatory alignment (deniable but de facto union), and so can freedom of movement given no-one in government or business shows the slightest desire to reduce immigration from anywhere at all, EU or not. Not to mention the last time a Prime Minister resigned on a matter of honour was, oh, I don't know but I'm sure it must have happened once or twice.

So how do Conservative members elect a Remainer? Well, firstly, members might not even get a vote; last time Andrea Leadsom was lent on to withdraw. Since it is most likely that the party will be electing a new Prime Minister, it will be claimed there is simply no time to consult members before the new PM is needed for crucial talks on the export of kiwi fruit regulations or some such.

More subtly, it depends on your definition of Remainer. The front-runners will be Hunt, Javid and Hammond, probably in that order. Like most Conservative ministers, they are post-referendum converts to Leave, so that's all right then, both sides can claim them. There will not be a head-banger Brexiteer: sorry JRM and DD. Boris is ruled out for other reasons but could easily have converted to Remain by then in any case.

But we agree Theresa May will lose a no-confidence vote.

No, a customs union cannot be fudged. A customs union is a binary thing - you are in it, or not in it. By definition, everyone has to follow the same rules. You cannot have someone following different rules or it is not a customs union any more. Just calling it 'a' customs union is a nonsense (thought up by the Labour Party which says it all). If we are in a/the customs union, we cannot set our own tariffs, so we cannot have our own trade policy, which causes pretty much the rest of the Leavers in the Cabinet to resign - this is why May has banked on the tortuous (and impossible) customs partnership.

FOM can be fudged but nobody will be fooled, and therefore it won't work.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Well right, this is the thing. Parliament can't agree on anything, the cabinet can't agree on anything, the PM can't agree on anything with herself, and the main thing the EU are agreed on is that they don't agree with anything the British might want to do. But the alternative is bad for everyone in the EU, and terrible for Britain and Ireland. So everybody agrees to kick the can.

What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.

I think we will leave and very probably on 31st March, no matter what is not resolved as at that date. No more MEPs, no automatic attendance at EU summits or meetings of ministers, no automatic introduction of EU law into the UK, no freedom of movement (although quite probably something which in practice is not that different).

What happens next depends on the reaction to that reality. If the EU in particular comes to terms with it then there may be many constructive agreements about areas of cooperation which some will see here as going back into the EU by the back door. If they don't we will just drift further and further apart for good or ill.

I think the majority of our political class will very much want the former either, depending on their viewpoint, to mitigate the damage or because a "grown up" but independent relationship with the EU is self evidently in our interests. Others will scream betrayal. I suspect they will get as much traction as the bastards traditionally got and few will be interested but the internal politics of the Tory party is an uncertainty in that respect.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Well right, this is the thing. Parliament can't agree on anything, the cabinet can't agree on anything, the PM can't agree on anything with herself, and the main thing the EU are agreed on is that they don't agree with anything the British might want to do. But the alternative is bad for everyone in the EU, and terrible for Britain and Ireland. So everybody agrees to kick the can.

What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.

I think we will leave and very probably on 31st March, no matter what is not resolved as at that date. No more MEPs, no automatic attendance at EU summits or meetings of ministers, no automatic introduction of EU law into the UK, no freedom of movement (although quite probably something which in practice is not that different).

What happens next depends on the reaction to that reality. If the EU in particular comes to terms with it then there may be many constructive agreements about areas of cooperation which some will see here as going back into the EU by the back door. If they don't we will just drift further and further apart for good or ill.

I think the majority of our political class will very much want the former either, depending on their viewpoint, to mitigate the damage or because a "grown up" but independent relationship with the EU is self evidently in our interests. Others will scream betrayal. I suspect they will get as much traction as the bastards traditionally got and few will be interested but the internal politics of the Tory party is an uncertainty in that respect.

I suspect both sides will be Brexited out.

The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Well right, this is the thing. Parliament can't agree on anything, the cabinet can't agree on anything, the PM can't agree on anything with herself, and the main thing the EU are agreed on is that they don't agree with anything the British might want to do. But the alternative is bad for everyone in the EU, and terrible for Britain and Ireland. So everybody agrees to kick the can.

What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.

I think we will leave and very probably on 31st March, no matter what is not resolved as at that date. No more MEPs, no automatic attendance at EU summits or meetings of ministers, no automatic introduction of EU law into the UK, no freedom of movement (although quite probably something which in practice is not that different).

What happens next depends on the reaction to that reality. If the EU in particular comes to terms with it then there may be many constructive agreements about areas of cooperation which some will see here as going back into the EU by the back door. If they don't we will just drift further and further apart for good or ill.

I think the majority of our political class will very much want the former either, depending on their viewpoint, to mitigate the damage or because a "grown up" but independent relationship with the EU is self evidently in our interests. Others will scream betrayal. I suspect they will get as much traction as the bastards traditionally got and few will be interested but the internal politics of the Tory party is an uncertainty in that respect.

I suspect both sides will be Brexited out.

The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.

Negotiations of the final deal haven’t started. Any idea that Brexit is going to be parked is simply politically illiterate.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

Viktor Orbán is more cunning than the entire Conservative political leadership put together. He will use them, not vice versa.

Theresa May probably will be PM but do I want to tie up money for six months on an 8/11 shot?

It would depends on how probable that ‘probably’ is.

There is that too. My oft-repeated view is that Theresa May will lose any vote of no confidence, but her opponents dare not trigger one because a Remainer will be elected in her place, and will under the rules will be safe till after Brexit.

But there is always the possibility a vote of no confidence can be triggered by mistake, as it were, or at least without coordinated action, since we do not know how many letters the 1922 already has. Perhaps just one or two more disgruntled or slighted MPs will be all it takes.

I have no idea how you think that Tory members would elect a Remainer. Absolutely no chance. I don't believe that it is possible for Tory MPs to engineer it so that two Remainers are on the ballot.

I think that May could well lose a no-confidence motion IF it comes at the right time - basically a crisis point. The ERG are obviously very disciplined and smart...

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

Well right, this is the thing. Parliament can't agree on anything, the cabinet can't agree on anything, the PM can't agree on anything with herself, and the main thing the EU are agreed on is that they don't agree with anything the British might want to do. But the alternative is bad for everyone in the EU, and terrible for Britain and Ireland. So everybody agrees to kick the can.

What does the world look like after a few can kicks? I mean, the voters are sick of this whole thing already, and it hasn't even happened yet.

I think we will leave and very probably on 3hat respect.

I suspect both sides will be Brexited out.

The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.

Negotiations of the final deal haven’t started. Any idea that Brexit is going to be parked is simply politically illiterate.

For the last two years youve been scare moingering, saying notings possible, end of the world is nigh, we'll be eating grass for decades etc.

While I understand you are hugely opposed to leaving it might just pay dividends to go have a rest and come back with a clear head. Both sides say they are at 80% of a deal. The hard parts are still to come of course, thats the nature of negotiations, but even Barnier is saying a deal is possible in the next 2 months, Juncker said the same yesterday to the EU Parlt.

The UK partisans on both sides have nowhere else to go in the next 2 months bar screaming and the public just isnt interested.

Barring "events" all sides want this done and out of the way and know they havent much time to get it fixed.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

Viktor Orbán is more cunning than the entire Conservative political leadership put together. He will use them, not vice versa.

Thanks for the response. I'm a little concerned that on our way out of the EU, we might hinder their own efforts to promote the rule of law/arrest a slide away from democracy.

I was intrigued by the argument deployed by some conservatives that this isn't part of MEP's responsibilities, I don't know enough about the topic, but clearly plenty of MEPs take a different view.

The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.

Negotiations of the final deal haven’t started. Any idea that Brexit is going to be parked is simply politically illiterate.

For the last two years youve been scare moingering, saying notings possible, end of the world is nigh, we'll be eating grass for decades etc.

While I understand you are hugely opposed to leaving it might just pay dividends to go have a rest and come back with a clear head. Both sides say they are at 80% of a deal. The hard parts are still to come of course, thats the nature of negotiations, but even Barnier is saying a deal is possible in the next 2 months, Juncker said the same yesterday to the EU Parlt.

The UK partisans on both sides have nowhere else to go in the next 2 months bar screaming and the public just isnt interested.

Barring "events" all sides want this done and out of the way and know they havent much time to get it fixed.

You're not just politically illiterate, you're actually illiterate: I've said none of those things. Brexit is a disaster and Britain is now in longterm inexorable decline. But the outlook for Britain is not a famine but an unending economic life of grey drizzly November. And I have believed since last December, which was the crunch point, that a transition deal will be done and I continue to believe that. It will be a really bad deal but it will be done.

And you continue miss my main point. Negotiations on the final deal haven't started. They will not start until after March next year. Brexit is not going away.

If we assume this is accurate (which, of course, it may not be) it would mean that if the ERG settled collectively on a non-Boris candidate, then, with the new group, they'd have enough members to depose May. Were they so inclined:

The UK political class has few gains in dragging it out and the Europeans have enough of their won issues to be bothered with us.

Negotiations of the final deal haven’t started. Any idea that Brexit is going to be parked is simply politically illiterate.

For the last two years youve been scare moingering, saying notings possible, end of the world is nigh, we'll be eating grass for decades etc.

While I understand you are hugely opposed to leaving it might just pay dividends to go have a rest and come back with a clear head. Both sides say they are at 80% of a deal. The hard parts are still to come of course, thats the nature of negotiations, but even Barnier is saying a deal is possible in the next 2 months, Juncker said the same yesterday to the EU Parlt.

The UK partisans on both sides have nowhere else to go in the next 2 months bar screaming and the public just isnt interested.

Barring "events" all sides want this done and out of the way and know they havent much time to get it fixed.

You're not just politically illiterate, you're actually illiterate: I've said none of those things. Brexit is a disaster and Britain is now in longterm inexorable decline. But the outlook for Britain is not a famine but an unending economic life of grey drizzly November. And I have believed since last December, which was the crunch point, that a transition deal will be done and I continue to believe that. It will be a really bad deal but it will be done.

And you continue miss my main point. Negotiations on the final deal haven't started. They will not start until after March next year. Brexit is not going away.

"I've said none of those things.....Britain is now in longterm inexorable decline."

read your own posts mate

and as for the illiterate, Ive yet to see any of our long term posters who is illiterate either economically or politically yourself included. Just because somebody doesnt share your view doesnt make them illiterate it just means they dont share your way of seeing things.

As Ive pointed out to you numerous time we all live different day to day realities and what works for you in London doesnt work out here in the sticks.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

Viktor Orbán is more cunning than the entire Conservative political leadership put together. He will use them, not vice versa.

Thanks for the response. I'm a little concerned that on our way out of the EU, we might hinder their own efforts to promote the rule of law/arrest a slide away from democracy.

I was intrigued by the argument deployed by some conservatives that this isn't part of MEP's responsibilities, I don't know enough about the topic, but clearly plenty of MEPs take a different view.

Didn't Orban get elected a few months ago with 50 per cent of the vote and 70 per cent of the seats in the Hungarian general election on a 70 per cent plus turnout. The second party was the true far right party Jobbik which got 20 per cent of the vote - would the EU rather they won. MEPs mostly get elected on very low turnouts via closed party lists - do they have a greater mandate?

Isn't the problem that the EU just doesn't like the results of the Hungarian democratic process? No criticism at all by contrast of the Swedish election last week which isn't even a secret ballot as election officials and others in the polling station can see how you vote because you have to pick a piece of paper for the party you vote for in public or get the party's paper handed to you as you arrive (or which has been pre delivered to your home) by party activists. It's positively banana republic in terms of the scope for intimidation and lack of a secret ballot.

Democracy is fine with the EU - as long of course as you vote the right way. Not defending Orban but the majority of Hungarians seem happy with him - and nearly half the voters who didn't back him think he is too soft and liberal!

There is a distinct gap between the CoE congregations and it’s leadership. One can’t help feeling that the Bishops might spend more time considering why they cannot find vicars for parishes. That’s difficult though and as we see with politicians, blaming others is easy.

Thanks for the link. That is really quite a disturbing piece but well worth the read.

Seconded. The Polish government did produce a report on the Smolensk crash - absolutely barking - blaming an aircraft already flying upside down 30m above the ground, let alone the trees, crashing because of an explosion in the cabin.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

Viktor Orbán is more cunning than the entire Conservative political leadership put together. He will use them, not vice versa.

Thanks for the response. I'm a little concerned that on our way out of the EU, we might hinder their own efforts to promote the rule of law/arrest a slide away from democracy.

I was intrigued by the argument deployed by some conservatives that this isn't part of MEP's responsibilities, I don't know enough about the topic, but clearly plenty of MEPs take a different view.

Didn't Orban get elected a few months ago with 50 per cent of the vote and 70 per cent of the seats in the Hungarian general election on a 70 per cent plus turnout. The second party was the true far right party Jobbik which got 20 per cent of the vote - would the EU rather they won. MEPs mostly get elected on very low turnouts via closed party lists - do they have a greater mandate?

Isn't the problem that the EU just doesn't like the results of the Hungarian democratic process? No criticism at all by contrast of the Swedish election last week which isn't even a secret ballot as election officials and others in the polling station can see how you vote because you have to pick a piece of paper for the party you vote for in public or get the party's paper handed to you as you arrive (or which has been pre delivered to your home) by party activists. It's positively banana republic in terms of the scope for intimidation and lack of a secret ballot.

Democracy is fine with the EU - as long of course as you vote the right way. Not defending Orban but the majority of Hungarians seem happy with him - and nearly half the voters who didn't back him think he is too soft and liberal!

Hungary's elections are not fair. The grip of the state over media is near-total.

"One Tory politician in Westminster told The Independent: “No one will say it publicly, but it’s clear that we are going to gain brownie points with people who might be able to help us in the Brexit negotiations."

Viktor Orbán is more cunning than the entire Conservative political leadership put together. He will use them, not vice versa.

Thanks for the response. I'm a little concerned that on our way out of the EU, we might hinder their own efforts to promote the rule of law/arrest a slide away from democracy.

I was intrigued by the argument deployed by some conservatives that this isn't part of MEP's responsibilities, I don't know enough about the topic, but clearly plenty of MEPs take a different view.

Didn't Orban get elected a few months ago with 50 per cent of the vote and 70 per cent of the seats in the Hungarian general election on a 70 per cent plus turnout. The second party was the true far right party Jobbik which got 20 per cent of the vote - would the EU rather they won. MEPs mostly get elected on very low turnouts via closed party lists - do they have a greater mandate?

Isn't the problem that the EU just doesn't like the results of the Hungarian democratic process? No criticism at all by contrast of the Swedish election last week which isn't even a secret ballot as election officials and others in the polling station can see how you vote because you have to pick a piece of paper for the party you vote for in public or get the party's paper handed to you as you arrive (or which has been pre delivered to your home) by party activists. It's positively banana republic in terms of the scope for intimidation and lack of a secret ballot.

Democracy is fine with the EU - as long of course as you vote the right way. Not defending Orban but the majority of Hungarians seem happy with him - and nearly half the voters who didn't back him think he is too soft and liberal!

Hungary's elections are not fair. The grip of the state over media is near-total.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

There are three potential choices for a vote in the next six months: Withdrawal Agreement, probably including Northern Ireland backstop and two year standstill "transition"; chaotic no deal; delay. The question is whether the government can get the votes for the first. DUP and Labour have said no to the first. I suspect Labour might go for delay. This would require the acquiescence of the EU as well as some support from conservatives.

On reflection, I don't think the EU will want delay. There is only one question. Can Theresa May cobble together enough votes to accept the Withdrawal Agreement, including payments and the Northern Ireland backstop, to get an exit with a two year no change "transition" and a short and vague "political declaration" that sets out a Canada style FTA and makes positive noises about a deeper partnership?

Labour, the DUP and Tory ERG have all said No, but there will be a lot of pressure to take it.

I think a second referendum might happen but that deadline's too tight. If it happens then it's most likely with an extension, potentially after various other things have failed.

TSE says "I don’t think there’s a majority in the House of Commons for passing the legislation to enable such a referendum" and he may be right.However is there a majority for any other particular course of action?

There are three potential choices for a vote in the next six months: Withdrawal Agreement, probably including Northern Ireland backstop and two year standstill "transition"; chaotic no deal; delay. The question is whether the government can get the votes for the first. DUP and Labour have said no to the first. I suspect Labour might go for delay. This would require the acquiescence of the EU as well as some support from conservatives.

On reflection, I don't think the EU will want delay. There is only one question. Can Theresa May cobble together enough votes to accept the Withdrawal Agreement, including payments and the Northern Ireland backstop, to get an exit with a two year no change "transition" and a short and vague "political declaration" that sets out a Canada style FTA and makes positive noises about a deeper partnership?

Labour, the DUP and Tory ERG have all said No, but there will be a lot of pressure to take it.

On that basis I suspect the ERG will sign up. They can hope to sabotage the deeper relationship later. Theresa May will hope to get enough DUP and Labour MPs to vote in favour or abstain. Doable, I think, but she needs to do some cross spectrum outreach, which she has invested nothing in so far

OT. John Lewis just announced they have made £1 million profit the worst on record. The media are now questioning the wisdom of spending four times their group profit on the production costs of a single Xmas ad.

A fair question but completely irrelevant. It does what it's supposed to do and buys a huge shot of added value publicity at Christmas and is therefore worth far more than the £4 million it costs

Advertising comes in all shapes and sizes and when they stopped handing out John Lewis shopping bags they lost millions of classy low cost ads wandering up and down the country's streets. Watching people leave of the store with their purchases in plastic Asda shopping bags must surely have alerted somebody?

I've always thought that you should never state anything unequivocally when it is your subjective viewpoint. Isn't it odd that it's common practice in political discussion?

I know you're not a scientist but is it common is legal parlance too?

You have a deeply held opinion but that doesn't make it any more certain to be true. I think Mrs May is a poor politician and David Cameron was a good politician even if I disliked him. Events may prove me wrong, but I can't change those events by being certain I'm right.

I think that forecasting economic events is a risky business. I think leaving the EU is the right thing to do. It has a goal and won't be deflected from that goal.

When we leave, we nay do much better economically than if we'd stayed. We may do worse. if it's the former, the Remainer view will be that we'd have done even better by staying.

The point I'm making is that you can never persuade people by being really,really certain, or by teaching them to suck eggs, so I'd better stop there. But you can annoy them.