I think that the slow realisation that almost all Iberian P312* is DF27 has to have a major effect on how we see both of these. It means that there is no longer any reason to see Iberia as the source of L21, U152 etc and this actually agrees with the beaker network subdivisions noted in the archaeology. By definition DF27 cannot be ancestral to them. For DF27 to dominate Iberia and adjacent parts of France so much (and almost totally in Iberia other than some spillover) there must be a solid reason why only DF27 made it to Iberia. It may even have occurred there or enroute to Iberia shortly before it reached there. The lack of a convincing mix of other clades beyond the fringes of Iberia does suggest that it entered Iberia when there wasnt much else on the path to Iberia or happened in Iberia.

I suspect that its distribution and density might well have a correpsondence with the early Maritime beakers which are superconcentrated in Iberia and along the west Med. across southern France to Italy but also scattered very thinly across northern Europe. I would love to see a map of Maritime beakers (I think there is one in one of Cunliffe's books) against a map of DF27 'all'. I realise that would included localised downstream subclades but they too have come from DF27* people and ultimately represented DF27* people of 4000 years ago as much as DF27* (which probably has lots of unknown SNPs) does. It also indirect agrees with the idea that the mainly Iberian SNPs downstream of DF27 are slighly later and therefore would not have existed at the time when maritime beakers were moving DF27 around Europe.

This realisation also has implications for L21 and U152. They seem far more likely to be linked to the secondary wave of beakers from central Europe that pushed into central and Alpine Europe and adjacent (U152) and also across to NW France, the channel coast and the isles (L21). The distributions of those clades are a good fit for this but would be a hopeless fit for Maritime beakers.

One other implication is that, if U106 really was holed up in the east until the late Bronze Age, I have a suspicion that L21's north Atlantic dominence may once have extended as far as Holland, the north German coast and even Scandinavia in beaker times and possible until well after. Perhaps U106's expansion punched a hole through L21 north maritime dominanace. L21 seems to be the major candidate for the clade who dominanted those coasts before U106 expanded.

I agree about the importance of "getting it" about DF27. And that the Maritime Beaker distribution pattern seems similar to that of DF27, including all of its subclades and not just the Iberian ones. But, do the chronologies match? The most recent dating of DF27 itself doesn't seem early enough (by nearly a millennium), if the 2900 BC dating of the earliest (Portuguese) beaker finds is correct. So, we need to look at maps, but also at calendars, and they both have to match for us to be talking about the same guys.

I'm not sure if I'm the only one of us so far looking at what Hans posted this week on the TMRCA thread:

I compared mean pairwise mismatches from DF27xL176,2 and its sub-clades with some MRCA calculations...

When I plot the mean pairwise mismatch of DF27xL176.2 and sub clades (each time including its sub clades) against the associated MRCA I get a straight line with a linear relationship...

The Z220 subpopulation becomes then: 3.4K and not 4.0K. And DF27 subpopulation 4.1K. The L484 subpopulation is aged 1.3K . A small cluster inside a phylogenetic tree including Bob Bjorkman, Nik Okkels and myself have a MRCA of 0.9K.

There's also some very good recent work on Beakers by Olivier Lemercier in Dijon that hasn't had much play yet, I guess because it's in French and mostly in non-public journals. (Jean M brought it to my attention, nudge nudge, wink wink.) Maps that predate his work might need some revision, before we weight them too heavily.

Some people (on Eupedia etc.) theorize that the Beakers had a major role in the spread of R1b. As you noted though, the distribution of sub-clades doesn't really support the theory that P312 actually expanded out of Iberia. So are you proposing that the Beakers picked up R1b at the eastern part of it's range and spread it from there?

Some people (on Eupedia etc.) theorize that the Beakers had a major role in the spread of R1b. As you noted though, the distribution of sub-clades doesn't really support the theory that P312 actually expanded out of Iberia. So are you proposing that the Beakers picked up R1b at the eastern part of it's range and spread it from there?

I am not sure to be honest. The options seem to be that R1b got into Iberia ahead of beakers in DF27 form or R1b got into Iberia in a secondary reflux from central Europe or simply the dating of the origin of beakers to Portugal is unsafe (which a recent Dutch paper has argued last year). I just dont know. I dont think it can be called yet until we get some more beaker yDNA. All I am concluding is Iberia seems unlikely to be the origin point of P312 and an outpouring of Iberian R1b is unlikely to explain the spread of P312 across Europe given that it is so DF27 dominated. That is simply phylogeny. DF27 domination of Iberian P312 does not make it a likely source for anything other than DF27 outside Iberia. That actually fits the archaeological evidence which doesnt really point to Iberia as the origin of most beaker in the northern half of Europe other than a very thin scatter of maritime beaker which IMO may have its genetic match in DF27 both in terms of distirbution and density. IF DF27 was as early as the maritime beakers c. 2700BC then it would indicate that P312 may be pre-beaker and this goes even more so for L11 and L51*. RR's L51 map maybe is an echo of a low visibility exploration group in immediate pre-beaker times.

... DF27 domination of Iberian P312 does not make it a likely source for anything other than DF27 outside Iberia. ...

I'd prefer to characterize this that DF27's high frequency in Iberia indicates Iberia may be the source of DF27. That's about it.. "may" be a source.

Like L21's high frequency in Ireland indicates Ireland may be the source of L21?

Well no because Irish L21 is all DF13 positive. While in France and England a fair bit is negative. So its pretty well impossible for Ireland to be the origin of L21. Again that is simply phylogeny. The variance has also always point to France for L21 with England a little behind and Ireladn significantly behind.

Similarly L21 and U152 cannot be derived from a DF27 population. One thing I would say about DF27 is Iberia is a very likely point for its take off because DF27 is known mainly in the west Med. but also has a sprinkling in the north. It is not at all common in central Europe judging by the low P312* there. So to be spread along both the Med. and scattered along the Atlantic too but with a bit of a void in between, Iberia would make sense as the location where it took off. If DF27 left Iberia along the beaker routes early then some of the downstream SNPs would not have happened by then so it makes sense that the scatter is of DF27* or other only slightly downstream forms. The north-south cluster has always been a hint of a scattering of Iberian lineages along the Atlantic route towards the north and it is apparently an early DF27 cluster. Again the thin scattering of maritime beaker would be a decent fit for that although this is of course speculative.

Personally I'm curious about DF27 distrubition in France. all of the previous studies showed high percentages of P312(xL21,xU152) in France so I'm assuming a big chunk of that is DF27+

-Paul(DF41+)

That would also make sense as southern France's early beakers were very well represented and French archaeologists see this as very strongly linked with Iberia. They also link later beaker phases in part of southern France to Iberian links.

... DF27 domination of Iberian P312 does not make it a likely source for anything other than DF27 outside Iberia. ...

I'd prefer to characterize this that DF27's high frequency in Iberia indicates Iberia may be the source of DF27. That's about it.. "may" be a source.

Like L21's high frequency in Ireland indicates Ireland may be the source of L21?

Well no because Irish L21 is all DF13 positive. While in France and England a fair bit is negative. So its pretty well impossible for Ireland to be the origin of L21. Again that is simply phylogeny. The variance has also always point to France for L21 with England a little behind and Ireladn significantly behind.

Are these things (variance etc.) known for DF27*? I don't know, just trying to get my head round it. Seems like early days for DF27 just now.

... DF27 domination of Iberian P312 does not make it a likely source for anything other than DF27 outside Iberia. ...

I'd prefer to characterize this that DF27's high frequency in Iberia indicates Iberia may be the source of DF27. That's about it.. "may" be a source.

Like L21's high frequency in Ireland indicates Ireland may be the source of L21?

Well no because Irish L21 is all DF13 positive. While in France and England a fair bit is negative. So its pretty well impossible for Ireland to be the origin of L21. Again that is simply phylogeny. The variance has also always point to France for L21 with England a little behind and Ireladn significantly behind.

Are these things (variance etc.) known for DF27*? I don't know, just trying to get my head round it. Seems like early days for DF27 just now.

I think we all are still. Its still pretty unclear how P312 came into being, where that happened and where the subclades arose etc. Even the 'when' bit is very dependent on the much debated ground of variance etc. We dont know much 100% but we know a lot more than we did 3 years ago and I suspect things might become fairly clear over the next couple of years. The influx of new papers on this has been like an avalanche recently. I am frustrated though that more ancient yDNA studies have not yet happened. There are huge gaps in terms of date and geography of the ancient yDNA sampled to date and that is pretty well the only reason things are not a lot clearer. The technology is there and its just waiting for much more money and time to be thrown into it. There are huge nos of human bones of all periods held all over Europe in museums etc so it could be done if there was the will and the money.

Well no because Irish L21 is all DF13 positive. While in France and England a fair bit is negative. So its pretty well impossible for Ireland to be the origin of L21. Again that is simply phylogeny. The variance has also always point to France for L21 with England a little behind and Ireladn significantly behind. ....

Are these things (variance etc.) known for DF27*? I don't know, just trying to get my head round it. Seems like early days for DF27 just now.[/quote]

A couple of runs Mike did a short while back.

"We've built up a fair size group of confirmed DF27 haplotypes. I've tried to match SNP tested people with varieties that look like pretty good fits. For instance, it appears consistent that North-South cluster people are Z209+ and probably Z220+. That being said, the following numbers include all the "predicted" DF27 haplotypes which would be those P312+ U152- L21- but DF27 untested folks who fit into a known DF27 variety.

I have some reservations about displaying the results as they are not re-sampled in any geographically representative way, they are too short (37 rather than 67 STR hts), and some people think STRs $&!#k. If you want to argue about those things, let's do that over in the STR Wars thread so as not to bog this one down. I'm not asserting any new hypothesis or anything, but here are the numbers.

I show relative variances of different groups of DF27 by both mixed speed 24 STR marker sets (but nothing crazy like CDY or 464) and by reported linear 16 STR marker sets. I like the mixed speed marker sets because R1b subclades seem to be more properly reflected visa-vi each other when using mixed speed markers than the slower or "linear" ones.

Here are the major subclades of DF27. R1b-DF21 is "all" subclades, not asterisk folks.

In the linear marker comparison you can see that Z196 comes out as more diverse than DF27 and that really shouldn't be as DF27 is older by reason of the phylogeny. Again, I seem to have less anomalies in the mixed speed results when I do this kind of thing.

The above numbers are appropriate in that we know they are of related groups of people, each group with its own MRCA. The peer subclades are not mixed. Below I will show variance results for geographies which means there will be different mixes of the various subclades of DF27 by geography. Some geographies may be pooling points or cross-roads and therefore look like an origin when it isn't. The information must be viewed in context of other information.

All DF27 by geography. "West Cont Eur" is France, Germany, Benelux and everything west of Poland/Czech Republic/Slovakia and north or west of the Italian Peninsula. "East Cent Eur" is everyhing east or east and southeast of West Cont Eur. The Italian Peninsula (only) is included in "East Cent Eur". Denmark is included in "Nordic".

The East Cent Eur and Nordic DF27 is fairly sparse so I wouldn't go to town with those results. I didn't look at France individually (SE France would be interesting) but Iberia seems to be more diverse than France/Germany.

I feel comfortable with L23 in the Balkens where Neolithic farmers from Anatolia (M269) exchanged culture and technology with the horse mounted People from the Steppes (R1a).I believe last weeks Tyler et Al paper supports an extreme R1b-M269 Neolithic expansion from Anatolia circa 5 -10 KYA.I believe last weeks Patterson et Al paper supports an R1b Bell Beaker expansion from Iberia circa 3.6 KYA.This would suggest that L11 gave rise to P312 in Iberia and U106 in Central Europe using the River networks already established by L51.I believe P312 later gave rise to DF27 and M167 in Iberia and U152 in the Alpine Region. DF27 and M167 are dominant in Iberia.Another P312 clade migrated to the Isles along the Atlantic Facade as L21 and expanded rapidly in the Isles as DF13 under the the Gaelic Clan System.The Atlantic Facade networks are supported by Cunliffe and Koch "Celtic from the West" and Cunliffe's latest book "Britain Begins".This migration path is illustrated below. Age estimates as always are approximate.http://pinterest.com/pin/32721534763708372/

I feel comfortable with L23 in the Balkens where Neolithic farmers from Anatolia (M269) exchanged culture and technology with the horse mounted People from the Steppes (R1a).I believe last weeks Tyler et Al paper supports an extreme R1b-M269 Neolithic expansion from Anatolia circa 5 -10 KYA.I believe last weeks Patterson et Al paper supports an R1b Bell Beaker expansion from Iberia circa 3.6 KYA.This would suggest that L11 gave rise to P312 in Iberia and U106 in Central Europe using the River networks already established by L51.I believe P312 later gave rise to DF27 and M167 in Iberia and U152 in the Alpine Region. DF27 and M167 are dominant in Iberia.Another P312 clade migrated to the Isles along the Atlantic Facade as L21 and expanded rapidly in the Isles as DF13 under the the Gaelic Clan System.The Atlantic Facade networks are supported by Cunliffe and Koch "Celtic from the West" and Cunliffe's latest book "Britain Begins".This migration path is illustrated below. Age estimates as always are approximate.http://pinterest.com/pin/32721534763708372/

I'm a bit skeptical in calling SRY2627 Iberian.. Mikes variance runs have time and again shown France in the lead.. and his last run showed Great Britain being up on the high end of these runs as well. I just see Southern France as being where SRY2627 sprung forth.. Its not far behind Iberia in modern frequency. We used to have maps of this being displayed, but I can't seem to locate them. Seems like one region of Southern France was pushing out around 17 percent for SRY2627. Don't hold me to that as I don't remember the exact figure. Lets not forget Val d'aran which holds the largest percentage to date at around 48 percent.. though this is a small populous with high SRY2627. Also seems like its variance is relatively low..

I'm not saying a DF27 or rather an L176.2 from Iberia couldn't have come North and and mutated into what we know as SRY2627 and brother/cousin.. whatever its considered, L165 occuring this way as well. Which I don't see alot of discussion about, as it has the most unusual frequencies of the DF27 crowd. No one seems to have an answer for L165's frequency being so dominant in Scotland.. It just gets kind of swept under the table for some reason.

Well no because Irish L21 is all DF13 positive. While in France and England a fair bit is negative. So its pretty well impossible for Ireland to be the origin of L21. Again that is simply phylogeny. The variance has also always point to France for L21 with England a little behind and Ireladn significantly behind. ....

I will have to say it is noticeable that with the extreme amount of L21 from Ireland available, none has shown up as DF13- yet.

Yes, quite a select DF13- group considering the size of L21.

Like perhaps DF13- L21+ then, DF27 appears to be a more mainland European subclade, possibly a reason that it's also only recently been noticed (Isles bias etc.) I see there are a couple of French DF13- people in your list but one, Maddox, has a Welsh surname?

Like perhaps DF13- L21+ then, DF27 appears to be a more mainland European subclade, possibly a reason that it's also only recently been noticed (Isles bias etc.) I see there are a couple of French DF13- people in your list but one, Maddox, has a Welsh surname?

....I believe last weeks Patterson et Al paper supports an R1b Bell Beaker expansion from Iberia circa 3.6 KYA.This would suggest that L11 gave rise to P312 in Iberia and U106 in Central Europe using the River networks already established by L51.I believe P312 later gave rise to DF27 and M167 in Iberia and U152 in the Alpine Region. DF27 and M167 are dominant in Iberia...

Please keep in mind that frequency does not really indicate an origin point so because DF27 is dominant, frequency-wise, in Iberia does not mean it originated there.

In your theory, you should consider or address the relative age of DF27 and U152. Using long haplotypes, U152 has always shown higher diversity than L21 or DF27. In fact, U152 shows higher diversity than P312* (which would have DF27+ SRY2627- people mixed in.) Given that, I'm not sure that additional DF27 discovery will ever cause DF27 to pass U152 in diversity.

If U152 is the most diverse of P312's large three haplogroups, we might want to consider where its geographic distribution its. I don't know the exact numbers, and I just said frequency doesn't mean everything, but I think U152's appearance in Iberia does not look like an origin point. This is not conclusive by any means, but a lack of U152 is a point against P312 originating in Iberia.

Your theories require multiple disbursements before the births. By that I mean you are requiring L11* to be spread from Iberia to Central Europe before P312 was born in one place and U106 in another. You also require P312 to be spread from Iberia to the Alpine region before DF27 and U152 were born in different places. That's all possible, but given the diversity differences between L11, P312, U152, L21, DF27 and U106 are not very large, and their modals are not that different we have to also consider they came about in relatively rapid succession - not leaving lots of time for widespread distribution.

On the other hand, if we are talking about Bell Beakers they may have traveled far (like the Amesbury Archer) within a lifetime so anything is possible.

I don't think the whole model of associating P312 with the Beaker folk expansions hinges on L165 in Scotland. How do you think it plays into the Beaker folks?

This is just speculation, but if the Z220+ North-South guys could be found from Scandinavia to Iberia, I don't see why their L176.2 brothers (SRY2627 and L165) couldn't have a similar spread. I don't think it is proven but L165 folks think they came to the Northern Scottish Isles from Scandinavia.

The biggest commonality among these P312 people that I can see is the connection to the western seaways from the Western Med to the Atlantic to the North Sea and even possibly the Baltic. That doesn't explain everything unless we consider that translates into traveling the river systems too.

The biggest commonality among these P312 people that I can see is the connection to the western seaways from the Western Med to the Atlantic to the North Sea and even possibly the Baltic. That doesn't explain everything unless we consider that translates into traveling the river systems too.

Speaking of the North Sea proximity and the Rhine River delta, I think Alan brought this up elsewhere, but modern frequencies for L21 in the Benelux region may be a red herring. We see U106 drops off like a cliff, frequency-wise, when it hits Calais. Most think the U106 expansion west through this area into England was a historical period migration so it may be covering up ancient tracks for L21 people. I can't find the analysis but an I-L38 researcher (Hans) correlated I-L38 with L21 at one time and found that both L21 and I-L38 had a particular type of scattered distribution in Benelux as compared to U106. He felt that the L21 and I-L38 pattern was the result of being an early inhabitant that left scattered remnants.

I'm sure I'll take some heat for this, but here goes...I don't think the distribution of Bell Beakers, especially in places like Bavaria, Bohemia and Moravia really works without at least "some" U106. And no, I can't quantify the "some" part.

I'm sure I'll take some heat for this, but here goes...I don't think the distribution of Bell Beakers, especially in places like Bavaria, Bohemia and Moravia really works without at least "some" U106. And no, I can't quantify the "some" part.

I know variance isn't everything but the current variance data shows that U106 was apparently to the east of the Elbe until perhaps the Iron age. That's long after the BB.

I'm sure I'll take some heat for this, but here goes...I don't think the distribution of Bell Beakers, especially in places like Bavaria, Bohemia and Moravia really works without at least "some" U106. And no, I can't quantify the "some" part.

I know variance isn't everything but the current variance data shows that U106 was apparently to the east of the Elbe until perhaps the Iron age. That's long after the BB.

Sorry, but I don't take much stock in "regional" variance, especially in areas like central Europe where people have crisscrossed thousands of times over the past 5000 years.

I'm sure I'll take some heat for this, but here goes...I don't think the distribution of Bell Beakers, especially in places like Bavaria, Bohemia and Moravia really works without at least "some" U106. And no, I can't quantify the "some" part.

Are you implying that early Celts in Bavaria and Bohemia must have had a lot of U106? I'm not sure if the Celts were in Moravia but we know Bohemia was named for them.

That's okay with me. I think there was a good chance that there were some U106 mixed in with Celtic people in Central Europe.

My primary struggle is to associate U106 with pre-Germanic IE and both of their routes into the Jastorf Culture. Did they both come from the south (and west of the Carpathians) into Jastorf?

The Baltic IE dialect influence on Germanic probably came from the east (and north of the Carpathians.) perhaps mainly by a mix of R1a1 and others. Perhaps the base pre-Germanic came from the same direction with the same Y hg's, which would mean that U106 people coming from the south (west side of the Carpathians) were NOT really carrying the pre-Germanic dialect, but possibly pre-Italo-Celtic, and were converted in the integration at Jastorf.