Suburban voters in swing states might decide presidential race

North Jersey voters who feel the presidential election is being decided by voters in distant swing states such as Colorado, Ohio and Virginia can take heart: Those far-away key voters have a lot in common with suburban voters here.

With 12 days left, the outcome of the election could hinge on a relatively small group of suburban voters in swing states who are genuinely conflicted about and often disenchanted by the choice before them.

As a group, suburban voters are more affluent, more educated and more female than the population generally, and, although anxious about the economy, they survived the economic crash better than their fellow citizens in rural areas, better than blue-collar workers and better than city dwellers.

Politically, they have a history of deciding big elections: In 2004, Republican George W. Bush matched or bested Democrat John Kerry in many of these key communities, riding the support of suburban voters into the White House for a second term.

Four years later, many of the same communities flipped and helped carry Barack Obama to victory in the swing states of Virginia, Colorado and Florida — and helped expand his margin of victory in battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania.

The battle for these voters will be fought in places such as Loudoun and Prince William counties in Virginia, Jefferson and Arapahoe counties outside Denver, the suburbs of Cleveland and Columbus in Ohio, the Orlando area of Florida — and they are likely to, once again, shape the election’s outcome in November.

Call them Panera voters, a wide swath of suburban voters in a few swing states who have experienced the economic crisis mostly as anxiety, rather than panic. They still eat out, but they are looking for a bargain.

Like these suburban voters themselves, St. Louis-based Panera Bread has proved somewhat recession-proof, opening nearly 300 cafes since the end of 2008, including 50 in the battleground states of Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado. The chain has thrived on the idea that despite the recession, plenty of people are still able to pay $8 for the right kind of sandwich in warm, inviting surroundings.

People who study suburban voting patterns say change has made these areas more fluid in their political allegiances.

“These communities are places where you start to see the city gather,” said Robert Lang, a demographer and professor of sociology at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. “It’s where the highways go from four to six lanes. … If there’s a giant movie theater with 14 theaters and cars wrapped around it, that used to be a solid space for Republicans. Not anymore, and that’s what’s different.”

The challenge for both campaigns, then, is to find their supporters — house by house.

For the Obama campaign, their suburban strengthen will come from women. They believe suburban voters, particularly women, are increasingly finding Romney too out-of-touch on economics and too extreme on social issues.

They are voters like Elia Brovarone, 24, who was eating an early dinner at a Panera café in Littleton, Colo., on a recent night before clocking in at her job at a nearby Yankee Candle store, the second of two jobs she must work to make ends meet.

Brovarone said her fiancé will support Romney, and she, too, believes the Republican’s got some ideas worth listening to on the economy. But she will vote for Obama, in part because of her strong support for gay and abortion rights.

“I don’t doubt that both candidates want to fix the economy; I have no doubt of that at all,” said Brovarone, who lives in Wheat Ridge in Colorado’s key Jefferson County. “So I’d rather pick someone who has views I agree with economically but who then can also stand up for social issues that I believe in, too.”

The Panera voter also suggests a hidden strength for Obama in these communities: passionate support for the Democrats’ health-care overhaul from those who have tangled with the nation’s complex health-care system.

To win in places such as Virginia’s Loudoun County, Romney will need to bring voters like Janet Dewey, who cast her ballot for Obama in 2008, back into the fold.

But this year, she’s more committed to Obama than ever, a view formed after watching her insurance costs skyrocket after she left a job at a bank following her husband’s death to pursue a lifelong dream of becoming a teacher.

“I didn’t know,” she said. “I’ve gone from one job to the next all my adult life, and I never knew what it was like not to have insurance available to me. It’s just not something people tell you.”

Romney aides characterize the shift in these communities in 2008 as an anomaly born of fatigue with eight years of the Bush administration and excitement about the possibility of a history-making election of a candidate who promised to be a transformational figure.

The aides say that suburban voters, disappointed with the Obama results, are looking for a leader who will be held accountable for campaign promises. The Obama attack on Romney as out of step with the suburban desire for cooperation and competence will ring false, they say.

“They’re trying to paint him as this fire-breathing dragon in those suburban counties, and it’s not working,” said Rich Beeson, Romney’s political director.

They believe Obama is especially vulnerable on issues of rising federal debt in such areas, as young parents fear leaving a broke government to their children.

And those fears are easy to find among Panera voters as well. Mark Warter, 48, owns a small remodeling firm in Loudoun hit hard during the downturn, as homeowners delayed revamping their kitchens and bathrooms.

Business is improving, he said. But he fears rising spending under Obama, particularly on social programs that he think discourage people from supporting themselves.

“I just think a lot of times, whether you’re a Democrat or a Republican depends on what you think of the general human condition,” he said over lunch with his two daughters. “Do you think that people are going to take help and say, ‘Thank you. Now I’m going to go help myself?’ Or do you think they’re going to get comfortable getting helped?”