Sp500: The Countertrend Rebound Has a Target in The Range 1980-2000?

By - Feb 28, 2016, 11:53 AM CST

Monthly time frame:

The impressive bottoming tail is suggesting a pause within a likely larger correction, although with one day left to end the month of February the countertrend rally has not prevented the bearish cross of the 10 mma below the 20 mma

Probably we should expect a larger rebound before SP 500 resumes the downtrend.

If the trend line from the March 2009 does not hold, the next down leg should be heading towards the next support located in the range 1576 - 1553

My preferred count from the May 22 Top remains the same: at the February low SP 500 has completed a Zig Zag (ABC)

Monthly and weekly oscillators are suggesting that the correction is not done yet hence in my humble opinion odds should favor that the current Zig Zag will morph into a Double Zig Zag or unfold a larger impulsive wave (C)

Today price has been rejected at the 0.5 retracement, however I would not go blindly short since breadth indicators are not suggesting that the current rebound has run its course, instead probably after a pullback the exhaustion zone could be located in the range 1980-2000 (The declining 20 wma could be tagged).

The range 1980-2000 is a probable target for the countertrend rebound but Breadth Indicators must deteriorate otherwise it could be exceeded

It is obvious that the advance from the February 12 low is corrective (Countertrend)

So far it seems reasonable that SP 500 is unfolding a Double Zig Zag within a Rising Wedge. This scenario would be too easy. I remain open-minded as the price structure can easily morph into a different corrective pattern, In addition breadth indicators are not poised for an immediate reversal.

The RSI of the Summation Index is entering the overbought zone, but usually a reversal occurs when the histogram of the MACD displays a negative divergence and the Summation Index triggers a sell signal by crossing the 10 dma. So far it is not the case in addition the 10 dma is far off

The SP 500 Percent of Stocks above the 50 dma is displaying a large participation of stocks in this rebound. In addition it is neither showing negative divergences nor it is overbought yet

The McClellan Oscillator is overbought, hence a pullback is probable but the oscillator is not a good timer for tops.

The 10 dma of the Equity Put/Call ratio remains elevated compared to the level where recent price reversals have occurred

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