OR: Morning-after impressions

May 19, 2010

A few more scattered thoughts about the Oregon numbers . . .

As of this morning (with a few votes still out, but only a few) voter turnout was low: 35.9% according to the Secretary of State’s office. it was lowest (21.4%) among those not affiliated with the two major parties; in primaries, their ballot is relatively short and don’t include the higher-profile contests, so that’s normal, but their numbers will rise in the general. Republicans got more of their registrants out to vote than Democrats, but only by a thin margin (42.2% to 39.9%) although they had more closely contested primaries than the Democrats did.

But this too shouldn’t be forgotten for the general: Despite slightly higher turnout, Republicans cast significantly fewer votes than the Democrats did – 277,319 Republicans to 345,671, which splits at 44.5% to 55.5%.

In the Democratic gubernatorial, John Kitzhaber won every county (all those as yet counted: Grant County still wasn’t in). The places where Bill Bradbury came closest, holding Kitzhaber to barely over half, were small and remote counties almost sure to go Republican in the fall regardless: Curry, Harney, Klamath (the largest of the group, but very Republican), Lake, Morrow. Kitzhaber was well over 60% in all of the larger counties, suggesting a large and unified base to begin with.

Republican primary winner Chris Dudley topped 50% of the vote (in a somewhat more splintered field) in just two counties, small Sherman and Gilliam. The grace note for Dudley is that his third-best county was Washington (48.2%), the second-biggest in the state and often decisive statewide; and third-ranking Clackamas County (47.6%) was nearly as strong. And where he did less well? He lost to Allen Alley in Douglas, Curry, Malheur, Klamath, Josephine, Coos, Lane (which the only county where Alley cracked 40%), Union and Benton.

What interesting about those counties is that many of them are the same counties where conservative Bill Sizemore cracked 10%. Sizemore’s best counties were Curry (18.3%), Lake (17.4%), Malheur (16.1%), Josephine (14.1%), Douglas (12.5%), Harney (12.1%), Umatilla (11.7%), Jackson (11.7%), Wheeler (10.9%). Otherwise known as the central heart of the Oregon Republican base. Hoe accepting of Dudley will they all be? Therein lies a question for his campaign to ponder in the weeks ahead.

It’s been noted elsewhere, but again: Incumbents in Oregon did pretty well. A number of congressional and legislative incumbents were primary-challenged; none lost. The state leadership challenge to Republican Representative Bob Jenson came close but failed.

Let this be noted too: The two state constitutional ballot measures won big. They were not controversial, there was no organized opposition – but an electorate in the fury so often described by pundits might still have given them more of a contest than they get.