Hurricane ERICK

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HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE
FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS
ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER
THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER
OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.
GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS
AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE
TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND
STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.
ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM
OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY
IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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