6.13pm: Former Rudd Press Secretary Lachlan Harris says that Kevin is certain he has the numbers.

6.07pm: Senior sources from both camps think they have enough votes to win.

5.58pm: Latika Bourke of the ABC says Labor members are saying that the secret ballot will benefit Rudd, with several caucus members likely to switch their allegiance in private.

5.54pm: ABC journalists reporting that it’s become difficult to get any Gillard supporters to go on the record. Earlier in the day, it was apparently the other way around. That is, it was hard to get Rudd supporters to speak up.

5.48pm: Most press gallery journalists are reporting that Kevin Rudd has between 55 and 60 votes confirmed. If all of those votes hold then this will be enough for Rudd to win the Labor leadership ballot tonight.

5.42pm: Keiran Gilbert of Sky News clocks over into his 12th hour live on air. Impressive.

5.22pm: Senator Kate Lundy of the ACT confirms on Twitter she is supporting Prime Minister Gillard.

5.20pm: “I’ve got to zip” says Rudd, as he walks from the Labor caucus room flanked by staff and family members.

5.18pm: Rudd acknowledges that he has changed his position. He says he accepts responsibility for his previous statements about the leadership. He says the Australian people will be the ones who judge him.

Rudd promises no pay back and no retribution and says that he will work to unite the Labor Party. He confirms he will not contest the next election if he loses tonight.

5.16pm: Rudd wearing blue tie. Just saying…

Kevin Rudd announcing he will contest the Labor leadership.

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5.15pm: Rudd says the ALP is ‘on course for a catastrophic defeat’ and is doing this to answer the Australian people’s call for there to be a real choice at this election – other than Tony Abbott.

5.13pm: Rudd announces that he will be a candidate in the ballot this evening. He says a third of members have signed a petition calling for this to happen.

5.08pm: There is an Australian flag behind the podium in the caucus room, that means he’s challenging… right?

5.05pm: And we’re all still waiting for Kevin…

4.50pm: Kevin Rudd’s office confirms he will hold a press conference at 5.00pm. The entire Canberra Press Gallery is assembled and waiting to see if Rudd will put his name forward for tonight’s ballot.

…………………..

Well, it’s on. Again. As in, again, again.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has just appeared live on Sky News. And by golly, she’s offered up some fighting words.

The Prime Minister has thrown down the gauntlet for Kevin Rudd to actually put his name forward in a ballot and to end the leadership speculation that has been plaguing the Labor Party for three years.

Gillard has called on any candidate for the role of Labor Party Leader (and quite possibly our next Prime Minister) to commit that they will quit politics forever, if unsuccessful in the ballot, which will take place tonight.

When pushed by interviewer David Spears, Gillard confirmed that she will not contest her Victorian seat of Lalor at the next election if she is unsuccessful in this evening’s caucus vote.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard talking to David Speers today.

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“If you win you are Labor leader. If you lose you will leave politics” said Gillard, as she laid down a final and official challenge to her detractors and put forward an ultimatum that was clearly directed at Kevin Rudd.

“I’m not interested in public accolades, I’m not interested in applause, I’m not interested in any of that personality politics,” Gillard said. “I came into politics to make a difference.”

So – despite there being NO formal challenger to her leadership at this stage, Julia Gillard says she will call a ballot for the Labor leadership at 7.00pm tonight.

And now? We wait.

The seemingly endless speculation about the Labor leadership will finally end this evening.

According to The Guardian Australia’s Lenore Taylor, a petition began circulating amongst Labor MPs to remove Julia Gillard as leader late this morning. The Prime Minister told Skye News that she has not seen that petition, nor have her colleagues pressured her to step down. But has decided to call this ballot anyway.

This strategic move from Gillard echoes her smart politics during the previous ballot, where she called the vote on early in an effort to stop Kevin Rudd getting the numbers he needed to win.

Question Time today.

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Previously, Rudd has appeared reluctant to be part of an outright challenge for the position of leader. This has left a big question mark over Kevin Rudd’s willingness to actually stand for the job and has meant that potential new Rudd supporters have been very cautious about getting behind this push. After all, they don’t want to see another meeting like last time – where there was an election called for the position of leader and Kevin Rudd failed to nominate.

However most Labor insiders are currently saying that Kevin Rudd will have the 53 votes he needs to become leader of the Labor Party once again – IF he decides to stand. It is understood that enough Gillard supporters have switched sides from the last time this whole debacle happened, to make Rudd leader once more.

It was confirmed this morning that rumours the Prime Minister would require a show of hands in any leadership ballot were not true. This means that Labor caucus members will take part in a secret ballot, allowing key members to switch their allegiances without fear of political retribution from factional heavyweights and union leaders.

Earlier today, key independent Tony Windsor said that he would withdraw his support for Labor if there was a change of leadership, and would vote in favour of a ‘no confidence’ motion in the Government. In those circumstances, Windsor would likely support Tony Abbott and the Coalition to form Government. However another independent, Bob Katter has said he would support a Labor Government led by Kevin Rudd.

Julia Gillard offering up fighting words.Kevin Rudd announcing his intention to put himself forward for the leadership.

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Kevin Rudd announcing his intention to put himself forward for the leadership.Kevin Rudd announcing his intention to put himself forward for the leadership.Bill Shorten announces his intention to back Rudd.