NHL Free Picks for

7:35 PM EST. Regulation only. The Flyers are 7-3 over their last 10 games and this now becomes a pretty big game for them, as they are running out of time in their quest for one of the two Wild Card spots. The Flyers are eight back of Montreal for the first Wild Card and six back of the Jackets for the second Wild Card. A loss here and they can pretty much kiss their chances goodbye of catching the Habs. That said, Philly is indeed winning games lately but only because their rookie goaltender has caught fire and not because they’re playing well. Philadelphia’s last six wins came against the Edmonton (5-4), Vancouver (2-1), Anaheim (6-2), Minnesota (5-4), Detroit (6-5) and Detroit again (3-1). In the two undeserving wins over the Red Wings, Philly was out-shot by a combined 76-55 and out-chanced by a combined 58-40. The other games were all one-goal victories against all teams that will be golfing in April. Philadelphia’s losses in between all those unimpressive wins were against Tampa (5-2), Pittsburgh (4-1) and Los Angeles (3-2). Losing to the Kings is not easy and the other two losses were by three goals each. Incidentally, Philadelphia has won the puck possession battle twice over its last 10 games.

Montreal has dropped four of five but they are too good to keep losing and they snapped a somewhat modest four-game losing streak with a win over the Jackets on Tuesday. It may not mean much but that win just happened to coincide with the return of speedy center, Paul Byron. Byron scored in that win over the Jackets but what sticks out most to us is that when he plays, Montreal wins a lot more games than they lose. With Byron in, Montreal has won seven of nine and 13 of its last 17. He instantly gives the Habs more strength up the middle, he’s strong on the PK and he plays well over 20 shifts per game. Aside from that, Montreal is very simply the superior team in every way and that includes puck possession, defense, offense, goaltending and staying out of the box.

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8:35 PM EST. OT included. Yes indeed, the Blue Notes are the hottest team in the NHL and have skyrocketed themselves into a playoff spot by leapfrogging over seven teams during this unforeseen tear that they’re on. Good for the Blue Notes but let’s not get crazy here. If you bet the Blues today, there is a good chance that you’ll cash your ticket but you’ll be paying a premium to do so. Furthermore, we’re not in the prediction business. We’ll leave that to the scum running simulated games and trying to sell it. We’re in the value business and in that regard, the Stars have to be played here because St. Louis is being over-bet. We cannot overstate enough how luck-driven this sport is and that’s the reason why 12 and 13-game winning streaks happen about once every leap year. Of course, each game is independent of itself so this has nothing to do with the “due to lose” angle but everything to do with playing on a strong team at home taking back a price they shouldn’t be. We’ll now sit back and let the chips fall where they may.

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9:05 PM EST. OT included. Last Saturday, Edmonton went into Brooklyn and lost 5-2 to the Islanders but outshot them, 36-24 and out-chanced them, 26-15. Over their last four games, the Isles are 2-2 but have mustered a mere 25, 27, 24 and 19 shots on net respectively. The Isles also played last night in Calgary. It is no secret that the Isles sum is better than their parts. From the opening puck drop in early October to the present, the Isles have defied logic by winning far more games than they deserve to. Give em credit for playing their hearts out and buying into a system put in place by a coach that realized he had less to work with than most but it’s working. The Isles frustrate the opposition and cash in on opportunities while their two goaltenders have both caught fire but they are an undeserving road favorite and we will not hesitate to bet against them.

Before we discuss the Oilers, it must be noted that Connor McDavid’s status for this game is listed as questionable but we are going to assume he’s playing because the oddsmakers put up a line. If McDavid’s status was truly in doubt, oddsmakers would have waited to put up a line because he’s sort of a big deal. The line opened at a pick-em, which sounds about dead on with McDavid in the lineup.

As for the Oilers, well, they have lost five in a row but were the better team in each of the past four games. Following their 3-2 shootout loss to the Arizona Coyotes on Tuesday, the Oilers are just six points back of the Minnesota Wild for the final wild-card playoff spot in the Western Conference - with five teams ahead of them. Oilers head coach Ken Hitchcock says his team is playing their best hockey and could soon make a run back into the playoff picture, “Of all the teams around there I feel like our team is playing the best. We’re not winning, but we’re playing the best. Eventually, it’s going to have to translate into wins. You can’t keep living off of, ‘We’re playing well.’ You have to take the next step, but five of the last six games are the best we’ve played in a long time.”

Those are strong words from Hitchcock and a look under the hood reveals that Hitchcock isn’t wrong. See that loss to the Isles? Edmonton out-chanced and outshot the Isles by a wide margin and the same can be said in its losses to both Carolina and Pittsburgh. The game against the Isles and Arizona were both played without McDavid and Edmonton was the better team in both. Now add McDavid into the equation and give us an inflated price on the Oil because they’ve lost five in a row and we know exactly what to do.

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