Sanders jumps to first with 27 percent, but lead over Biden, Warren within margin of error

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ATLANTA, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 20: South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Former Vice President Joe Biden, and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) come onto the stage at the start of the Democratic Presidential Debate at Tyler Perry Studios November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. Ten Democratic presidential hopefuls were chosen from the larger field of candidates to participate in the debate hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

From left, Democratic presidential candidates, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, businessman Tom Steyer, Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., and former Housing Secretary Julian Castro stand on stage for a photo before a Democratic presidential primary debate hosted by CNN and The New York Times at Otterbein University, Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2019, in Westerville, Ohio. A Democratic debate set for Dec. 19 was moved from UCLA to Loyola Marymount University due to an ongoing labor dispute at the Westwood campus. A labor dispute at Loyola Marymount has been resolved, it was announced Tuesday, Dec. 17, and the Dec. 19 debate will go on as scheduled. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

Bernie Sanders, Democratic presidential candidate, left, is introduced by Cenk Uyghur, right, during a rally at the Santa Clara County Fairgrounds in San Jose, Calif., on Wednesday, May 18, 2016. Sanders wife, Jane O’Meara Sanders, is at center. (Gary Reyes/Bay Area News Group)

A campaign worker with Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., speaks to members of the audience before Sanders appeared during a campaign stop, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2019, in Franklin, N.H. (AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)

ATLANTA, GEORGIA – NOVEMBER 20: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) (L), former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) (R) participate in the Democratic Presidential Debate at Tyler Perry Studios November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. Ten Democratic presidential hopefuls were chosen from the larger field of candidates to participate in the debate hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

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With just over a month and a half until voters go to the polls, Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading a tight three-way race in California’s Democratic presidential primary, a new survey released Monday afternoon found.

The poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California, found Sanders leading with 27 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 24 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 23 percent.

Sanders jumped 10 percentage points since the last time PPIC surveyed Californians in November, mirroring a similar surge in recent months around the country for the Vermont senator. But his lead remains well within the poll’s margin of error, a sign of how close the race for the White House remains in California.

The poll found former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg a distant fourth at 6 percent, while Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is fifth with 4 percent.

The polling questionnaire only mentioned the five candidates who had qualified for Tuesday’s Democratic debate as of early this month — which means former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who’s spent more than $20 million on TV ads in California and has gone on a hiring spree for strategists and organizers in the state, wasn’t included. He still got 1 percent of voters who volunteered his name.

Similarly, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, who also wasn’t included in the poll questionnaire, got support from 3 percent of voters who volunteered his name. And less than 1 percent of respondents voluntarily chose former San Francisco hedge fund chief Tom Steyer, whose strong showing in two polls in Nevada and South Carolina late last week vaulted him onto Tuesday’s debate stage.

Among younger voters aged 18 to 44, Sanders received nearly 45 percent support, nearly double Warren and almost four times Biden. But voters age 45 and older favor Biden at 32 percent, followed by Warren and Sanders.

The poll is PPIC’s first since home-state Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the presidential race in December. Harris had 8 percent support among likely voters in the previous poll in November.

Californians will vote March 3 — Super Tuesday — in the presidential primary, which will determine the breakup of the state’s massive trove of 416 pledged delegates. Most of the delegates will be allocated based on results in individual congressional districts.

Six candidates in the race — Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar and Steyer — will face off in Tuesday’s debate in Des Moines, which starts at 6 p.m. Pacific time on CNN. It will be their final face-to-face matchup before the Iowa caucuses on Feb. 3, the same day that mail-in ballots start getting sent out to voters in California.

The California primary is sure to be shaped by the results in Iowa and the three other early states, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

“A three-way race is consistent with every poll we’ve seen,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “But these little states are still going to set the table and set the agenda for California — and what this doesn’t tell us is how big the bumps will be out of Iowa and New Hampshire when the leader starts to consolidate support.”

The poll, which surveyed 530 likely Democratic primary voters on landlines and cell phones and in English and Spanish between January 3 and 12, had a margin of error of plus and minus 6.5 percent.

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