These people are definitely adventurous and little nuts IMO and they spend too much money somehow. Their internet home page talks about crossing the Mexico-US border at El Paso. This is the MOST dangerous place in the US or Mexico or most likely anywhere in the world. Maybe. I find things are often...

No, but there are some cases where it would make sense. For example, if I were a retiree, I might be more hesistant to rebalance after a sharp stock decline due to the diminishing marginal utility of money.

Depending on your area, Yelp may also have some hourly guys. You probably won't get as good advice is you'll get here collectively, though. You could always post their recommendations here for second opinions.

Interest in a gold heavy portfolio when it was cheap (before its run-up over the last few years) was about as widespread as a natural gas and Japanese stock heavy portfolio is today. Buy low, sell high. That's what the PP does. It buys low and sells high in a mechanical fashion that looks brilliant...

Interest in a gold heavy portfolio when it was cheap (before its run-up over the last few years) was about as widespread as a natural gas and Japanese stock heavy portfolio is today. Buy low, sell high.

I must say my flimsy $10 santoku comes out of the drawer more often than my Henckels. Slices and dices easier, very easy to keep sharp. For meat, a cheap boning knife gets the most use. Good chefs knives are best for tougher tasks, like cutting through a beet, but you don't need them for lighter work.

I guess they had to come up with a compromise between competing with Vanguard on low fees or profits. They couldn't give up the revenue from the customers in EEM paying 0.67% ER so they created a new emerging market ETF that undercuts Vanguard with an expense ratio of 0.18%. So glad I don't own EEM...

In theory, investing in bonds should be a lot more difficult. The problem is stocks are all pretty much all the same animal, but a fixed income product is a unique contract, and a contract can contain any terms you want. Some are extremely complex. Even comparing terms on a simple bank CD can be a h...

Value is the same as it's always been - somewhere between none (you go back to being a waiter after getting that degree) and very high (you go on to win a Nobel prize, etc). On the other side of the equation, the cost is certainly higher than it once was. And I think people are more aware of the imp...

It follows from the Two Mutual Fund theorem that one can squeeze out even more expected returns by placing 100% of capital set aside for domestic equities in small cap value, and shorting the rest of the stock market. There is no "everything but Sm-Val" ETF but one can short VTI or SPY to estimate ...

Stock pickers? Hot fund pickers? Just what other systems are used? Paul Merriman used DFA for 80% of his clients and trend following market timing for the 20% who could not stomach the steep periodic market drops All of the above, and many more. Advisors are like a box of chocolates - you never kno...

I think chasing unexplained historical patterns like momentum is probably harmless unless is has some negative side effect, which in this case would be letting the risk profile of your portfolio get out of whack.

Seems you labeled that set of behaviors "market timing". You could just as easily have labeled them "oak tree". Labels are irrelevant. Are you saying there's something wrong with that set of behaviors? I invest in a global portfolio during my adult life because that's when I have the savings. I'm no...

Thanks for the link - excellent brief give-and-take re: the difference between what CAPE is indicating vs. the 1-year trailing P/E or forward P/E. I think there are a couple of nice counterpoints to the view I've seen advocated on this forum that CAPE is not to be trusted because the last decade ha...

I hold the Vanguard Global REIT Index in my Roth IRA; the 5% foreign tax credit isn't worth the tax cost for holding a fund with a high yield and only 20% qualified dividends in my taxable account. The FTC credit is 5 percent? That's what it was last year, and most other foreign real estate ETFs al...

At 3.5 percent I pay to live in my home, I would rather pay that percentage and then let most of my money ride in 401k stocks that are netting me a healthy 15 percent at the current moment. In the years when stocks net you a healthy 15%/year, that strategy works. In years/decades where they net you...

TSM maximizes diversification because it's the most even bet on what the market finds valuable. If the market thinks X-Co's patent is worth $100, and Y-Co's is worth $100, you'll own an equal interest in each patent. How to most closely replicate this evenly spread bet with a barbell portfolio missi...

No interest in getting into a debate about issue but An asset class must have the prospect of a real rate of return on a stand-alone basis. If it was correct there would not be an insurance industry. There are assets that serve as portfolio insurance and thus can play a role. And for example, if on...

MPT says that if one invests in assets with low or negative correlation (and similar expected returns) and has good rebalancing discipline, expected returns are higher. In other words, assuming one can manage to stick to an investing plan, investing in a fixed ratio of Total Stock Market, Internati...

No it's a sector bet IMO, with reduced diversification benefit vs US REIT as it's subject to the same foreign currency swings as any other foreign stock fund. No free lunches out there. Keep it simple.

TSM is just an arbitrary portfolio. A total stock market index fund is not arbitrary. It is a fund whose price represents the valuation of millions of investors. The Total Stock Market it is on the Efficient Frontier (the highest expected return with the least amount of risk, or lowest risk with th...

larryswedroe wrote:Beagler
In another post I pointed out how even experts misremember their forecasts because the truth is too painful, they convince themselves they were right. You provided another example of that.
Best wishes
Larry

I think it is a question of how one defines risk and how much weight one gives to risk. The traders obvious goal is to make money and they have, on average, decided that the largest companies are those that provide the best risk-adjusted returns. If there were other companies that provided higher r...

Yobria You keep repeating falsehoods and incorrect statements no matter how many times you are told you are wrong. One would think enough embarrassment is enough. You even continued to cite papers even after their errors were shown and the author even admitted them. The truth seems to escape you. I...

I value maximum economic diverisification more than how "different" each country may be from the US. I understand your point, but my portfolio is based on the idea of having a small collection of sharply divergent assets. (at least the most divergent ones I can find) "Economic Diversification" as y...

Given the importance of retirement savings and and an entire array of other important financial issues, why is a there not a mandatory class in high school (or college) which addresses the basics of personal finance ? :oops: There are some places where it is required. I don't have the statistics at...

LOL So now past patterns don't matter. Or is it that those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat the same mistakes Past patterns matter when there is a logical reason for the pattern to exist, when statistical tests of significance help provide confidence that the result is not data min...

Interesting to see so many folks overweighting EM at the expense of developed. I don't think a 2X overweight is harmful (50/50 EM/Developed). On the other hand, ignoring this important source of diversification would be a foolish mistake. Certainly financial advisors who did wound up costing their ...

My international allocation is 50% emerging, 50% developed. I have no idea which of these will perform better over the next few decades, so anything other than 50/50 seems unwarranted. Of course you could make that claim about any arbitrary division of the global market. I have no idea whether a co...

Unknowable without having the specifics of the product you're talking about, but generally if you hold a certificate for a share of stock, you have a claim on that asset, regardless of currency fluctuations or which country you're in.

If you've been reading my blog for any length of time, you know that data mining (or the act of messing with numbers to find specific patterns) should provide investors little more than a chuckle. Indeed, though since the human mind is tuned to look for patterns, and there's a whole industry promot...

Ever found yourself saying, "I really like this Honda, but Ford stock has higher factor loadings. I guess I have to buy the Ford, so its stock will outperform?" Probably not. And neither have the customers of the stocks that RZV is betting on. There is no Factor Fairy, just a bunch of companies com...

Interesting to see so many folks overweighting EM at the expense of developed. I don't think a 2X overweight is harmful (50/50 EM/Developed). On the other hand, ignoring this important source of diversification would be a foolish mistake. Certainly financial advisors who did wound up costing their c...

Ever found yourself saying, "I really like this Honda, but Ford stock has higher factor loadings. I guess I have to buy the Ford, so its stock will outperform?" Probably not. And neither have the customers of the stocks that RZV is betting on. There is no Factor Fairy, just a bunch of companies comp...

I think people care. Note growth of Vanguard, and how other fund companies have had to dramatically lower fees to compete. For those who don't care, well, a fool and his gold are soon parted. The problem is a lot simpler if you invest directly. An advisor layer between you and your money introduces...

Having worked for a variety of financial companies, I trust that a company as large and developed as Vanguard has enough controls in place, and is audited redundantly enough, that I don't have to worry. I did place a restriction on our accounts there to prevent anyone from withdrawing money from them.

I think people care. Note growth of Vanguard, and how other fund companies have had to dramatically lower fees to compete. For those who don't care, well, a fool and his gold are soon parted. The problem is a lot simpler if you invest directly. An advisor layer between you and your money introduces ...

Seeing recent threads on more and more precise ways to model historical stock returns, and a few posts re: how dramatically to bet this or that corner of the stock market, I figured this thread was worth a bump. Looking at Vanguard funds, it appears growth will beat value again this year, and large ...

I have term life insurance, some disability, car insurance, home insurance and an umbrella policy. I don't have long term care insurance is it worth buying. How expensive is it? Not for me personally, but that will depend on your personal situation (marital status, genetics, opinion of the insuranc...