2019 NHL Draft: Consolidated Industry Rankings for May 2019

It’s been quite a while since I last released a consolidated industry rankings in this space, and I apologize for that – I’ve been a bit preoccupied setting up a new prospect-driven entity over at NextGen Hockey.

I toyed with the idea of publishing consolidated rankings over there. I would leave them unlocked of course; it didn’t feel right charging money for compiling the work of others. In the end I felt it was best to leave NextGen Hockey with original scouting reports and rankings only, allowing me to continue the trend of consolidated rankings here at CanucskArmy, where I’ve been doing it for the past several years.

This is just the third consolidated rankings published here this season, following December and October, so we’ve got a lot of ground to make up. First off, here’s the list of services used in this month’s big list:

Altogether, there are 13 lists considered, and, unsurprisingly, all 13 have released new lists since the last edition in this series (most have released several in that time frame). Four released new lists this month alone, and I suspect that many others will do so between now and the draft, which is just six weeks away at this point.

Just like last time, I’ve linked to the original lists for each provider, so that you can go ahead and peruse the individual lists at your leisure. Fair warning, some of them are partially behind paywalls, and some of them are fully behind paywalls. The groupings are as follows:

The most outdated ranking at this point is the TSN Industry Poll from Bob McKenzie, dating back to late-January. That’s a ways back, but there’s no way am I axing the Bobfather here, so it is what it is.

I think that’s enough preamble, so let’s get into the list itself.

Given that it’s been so long since the last edition, I’m primarily going to focus on the risers and fallers over that large segment of time, rather than just the movement in the last month (I do in fact keep tabs on the rankings each and every month, even though I haven’t been publishing records of them). For the sake of this exercise, I have included on the table above the movement since both last month and since December, the last published super list.

Risers

Ville Heinola was a relatively unheralded defenceman until he secured himself a spot on Finlands Under-20 squad for the World Junior Championship. The young defender had already been plying his trade in the professional ranks back home in Finland, and producing at an impressive rate. In fact, his point rate equates to the best SEAL adjusted scoring rate among all defencemen in his draft class.

Few prospects have risen as fast as Bobby Brink this season, as the Sioux City winger has torn apart the USHL. With 68 points in only 43 games, no non-Development Program prospect put up a better scoring rate in the USHL this season. In on nearly half of Sioux City’s goals, Brink trails only Alex Newhook of the BCHL in involvement percentage of team offence. Involvement goes well beyond the stats as well: the feisty winger is abuzz in all three zones, hounding puck carriers, forcing turnovers, effecting transitions and creating scoring chances.

Two Ontario Hockey League risers to take note of: Philip Tomasino and Nicholas Robertson, of the Niagara IceDogs and Peterborough Petes respectively. Both players have played both the middle and the wing this season, both are a little on the small side, and both are absolutely overflowing with skill. Each was a regular on league highlight reels this season, and while they’ve been shooting up the rankings, I honestly think both ought to go even higher than their consolidated ranking here (being 28th for Tomasino and 33rd for Robertson). The profiles for both of these players should appear on NextGen Hockey in the coming days, so you can get a taste of what they’re all about, but to say the least they are a couple of exciting first round wildcards.

The biggest outright jumper on this list Prince Albert’s Brett Leason, war general behind the destruction of the WHL this season. Leason cooled off to a certain extent over the course of the season, ending up with a more reasonable production line for a draft-plus-two forward. That likely means that while he’s still a sure bet to get picked next month, being on the edge of the first round is probably a little rich. If you didn’t catch Leason yet this year, don’t worry: you’ll get another chance this weekend as the Raiders begin their quest for the Memorial Cup in Halifax.

Fallers

Here are two interesting names to keep an eye out for on draft day: Ryan Suzuki and Raphael Lavoie. These two forwards, Suzuki with the OHL’s Barrie Colts and Lavoie with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, have both flirted with top ten status at points in the season, though the now find themselves in the late teens. They were both fully on the radar of scouts early on, have played with top 2018 picks Andrei Svechnikov and Filip Zadina, respectively, last season. Both had impressive seasons from a production standpoint, and Suzuki in particular had an incredibly strong start before cooling off in the latter two-thirds of the campaign. Still, both are well over a point per game.

So why the drop? Suzuki and Lavoie are not necessarily perpetrators of their own backslides, but victims of hot prospects rising past them. The likes of Cole Caufield, Cam York, Alex Newhook, and Victor Soderstrom were each consistently ranked behind Suzuki and Lavoie back in the fall, but have now all but locked up the 10-15 range. This happens every year, and I’d wager that Suzuki and Lavoie are going to be a pair of picks that end up outperforming their draft slot in over the next couple of years.

Anttoni Honka was once considered the top defenceman of the 2019 draft class, back when he was producing at nearly a half-point per game Finland’s top professional league. During his draft campaign, Honka has faced doubters at every turn, routinely left out of the first round on industry lists. He’s one of those high risk-high reward type defenders, equipped with dynamic offensive ability coupled with a pretty raw defensive game. Being undersized, as well a penchant for eye-catching giveaways (that honestly comprise a small portion of his dazzling rushes) have scouts exercising extreme caution. Honka’s drop in the rankings has plenty to do with safer players moving up around him.

While Honka has clung on to a spot in our pseudo-first round, U.S. Development Program defenceman Alex Vlasic hasn’t been so lucky. The 6-foot-6 Illinoisan rearguard peaked in the rankings between October and December (ranked 24th in each month) before down to 36th, which, coincidentally, is roughly where he started the season. Vlasic rode the Program wave that many of the others did, but as many dove deeper, it became evident that, while a steady player, he was not a driver on the squad, and his offensive upside is limited.

16 Comments |

I am looking at this list and can’t help but wonder, what would it take to get another 1st rounder in the top twenty? Would dipietro net us a first round pick in the top twenty? He was picked I. The third round so that’s a pretty solid trade up and he is years away from helping us, I think this is worth exploring.

Kappo comes in as an over-ager (birth date 1900?). Good for him to be doing something good with his life at that age.

It really looks like a mixed bag after two as far as these lists go. The gap between 2 and ten does not look so wide according to these rankings. Hopefully we get a good one falling to us like last year. If Podkolzin falls to us, do you run to the podium, or do you stay away? Big divide there and 2 more years in Russia.

Also, I have been looking forward to this prospect stuff, so thanks for this, but will that stuff be here, or do I have to go to Nexgen websites for that stuff now?

the biggest things that has push Podkolzin down lists is the KHL plan he has that will prevent him from playing for an NHL team in the near future. I U18 less than would have been expected had some effect as well but it’s the KHL thing that has really done it. He would be a great pick at 10 assuming you have no issue being patient.

Go to EliteProspects and drill down by league and get the scoring stats. When you click on each player, EP has a few rankings so you can get a sense where each player falls. Note that it is league-wide so scoring leaders may include drafted and ineligible (i.e. too young) players. Below is the link to the league scoring stats and Alex Newhook’s profile as an example (as he led the BCHL in scoring):

would love to see a PNHLe or equivalent worked into these rankings and also a formula to reduce the impact of of the rankings that are outdated (over a month) make on the final rankings. I’m sure it’s always the case but Petey had the highest PNHLe in his draft class I believe, so it would have been the best tool if you had been picking first in that draft.