US economic recovery likely to continue

July 15/2011

(ICIS) -- US economic activity is likely
to recover from the current “soft patch” in the second half of 2011, driving
healthy chemical demand, the chief economist of the American Chemistry Council
(ACC) said on Thursday. “We see a recovery in most end-use sectors, with
particular strength is capital goods, which is driving basic chemicals,” said
ACC chief economist Kevin Swift during a conference call on its mid-year
outlook.

He said he expects US bulk petrochemicals and organics volume output to
grow 5.6%, plastics resins at 4.7% and synthetic rubber at 5.7% in 2011. Overall
chemical output, excluding pharmaceuticals, is expected to rise by 4.8% in 2011
and another 3.1% in 2012.

He compared the economic downturn of 2008-2009 to a fall into a 20-foot
(6-metre) ravine. “We’ve probably gone up 12-14 feet on the other side of the
ravine, but it’s been muddy and slippery,” he added.

While the softening of the US manufacturing recovery in the second
quarter will affect chemical demand, inventories are well balanced and exports
continue to be strong, he said.“US exports of thermoplastics have doubled
since 3-4 years ago to 20% of output. And we see the potential of this growing
much higher as the US has emerged as one of the world’s low-cost producers
because of shale gas,” said Swift.

For the global chemical sector, the economist said he expects output to
grow by 4.8% in 2011 and 5.3% in 2012.