By October 28, at least 60 deaths had been attributed to the storm, including 45 in the United States and 15 in Central America. Hurricane Michael caused at least $14.58 billion (2018 USD) in damages, including $100 million in economic losses in Central America,[1] an unspecified amount of damage to U.S. fighter jets with a replacement cost of approximately $6 billion at Tyndall Air Force Base,[2] and at least $3.3 billion in insurance claims in the U.S.[3][4] Losses to agriculture and timber alone exceeded $5.18 billion.[5][6] As a tropical depression, the storm caused extensive flooding in Central America in concert with a second disturbance over the eastern Pacific Ocean. In Cuba, the hurricane's winds left over 200,000 people without power as the storm passed to the island's west. Along the Florida panhandle, the cities of Mexico Beach and Panama City suffered the worst of Michael, with catastrophic damage reported due to the extreme winds and storm surge. Numerous homes were flattened and trees felled over a wide swath of the panhandle. A maximum wind gust of 129 mph (208 km/h) was measured at Tyndall Air Force Base near the point of landfall. As Michael tracked across the Southeastern United States, strong winds caused extensive power outages across the region.

Meteorological history

Early on October 2, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a broad area of low pressure that had developed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.[7] While strong upper-level winds initially inhibited development, the disturbance gradually became better organized as it drifted generally northward and then eastward toward the Yucatán Peninsula. By October 6, the disturbance had developed well-organized deep convection, although it still lacked a well-defined circulation. The storm was also posing an immediate land threat to the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba. Thus, the NHC initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen at 21:00 UTC that day.[8][9] By the morning of October 7, radar data from Belize found a closed center of circulation, while satellite estimates indicated a sufficiently organized convective pattern to classify the system as a tropical depression.[10] The newly-formed tropical cyclone then quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Michael at 16:55 UTC that day.[11] The nascent system meandered before the center relocated closer to the center of deep convection, as reported by reconnaissance aircraft that was investigating the storm.[12] Despite moderate vertical wind shear, Michael proceeded to strengthen quickly, becoming a high-end tropical storm early on October 8, as the storm's cloud pattern became better organized.[13] Continued intensification occurred, and Michael attained hurricane status later on the same day.[14]

Shortly afterwards, rapid intensification began to ensue and very deep bursts of convection were noted within the eyewall of the growing hurricane, as it passed through the Yucatán Channel into the Gulf of Mexico late on October 8, clipping the western end of Cuba. Meanwhile, a 35 nmi (65 km) wide eye was noted to be forming.[15] The intensification process accelerated on October 9, with Michael becoming a major hurricane at 21:00 UTC that day.[16] In addition, the central pressure in the eye was noted to have dropped about 20 mb (0.59 inHg) in the span of 6 hours, into the first hours of October 10.[17] Rapid intensification continued throughout the day as a well-defined eye appeared, culminating with Michael achieving its peak intensity at 18:00 UTC that day as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 919 mbar (27.14 inHg), just below Category 5 intensity, as it made landfall on the Gulf Coast of the United States near Mexico Beach, Florida, ranking by pressure as the third-most intense Atlantic hurricane to ever make landfall in the United States.[18]

Once inland, Michael began to rapidly weaken, as it moved over the inner Southeastern United States, with the eye dissipating from satellite view, weakening to a tropical storm roughly twelve hours after it made landfall.[19] However, Michael managed to reach Georgia as a Category 3 hurricane,[20] becoming the first major hurricane to enter the state since 1898.[21] Moving into the Carolinas early on October 11, the inner core of the storm collapsed as the storm's rainbands became prominent to the north of the center. Later that day, Michael began to show signs of becoming an extratropical cyclone, as it accelerated east-northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coastline, with cooler air beginning to wrap into the elongating circulation, due to an encroaching frontal zone.[22] Afterward, during the early hours of October 12, Michael began to restrengthen while moving off the coast, due to baroclinic forcing. Shortly afterward, Michael completed its extratropical transition around 09:00 UTC on the same day, as the storm became fully embedded within the frontal zone.[23] Michael subsequently accelerated towards the east, strengthening into a powerful extratropical cyclone by October 14.[24] On October 15, Michael's extratropical remnant approached the Iberian Peninsula and turned sharply towards the southeast,[25] making landfall on Portugal early on October 16. Following landfall, Michael's remnant quickly weakened, dissipating later on the same day.[26][27]

Preparations

Cuba

About 300 people were evacuated in western Cuba from the coast due to the storm.[28]

United States

On October 7, Governor Rick Scott announced that he would be declaring a state of emergency for Florida if needed, advising residents to be prepared for the incoming storm.[29] That day, a state of emergency was declared for 26 counties, and then 9 additional counties were added on October 8. Governor Scott also requested that President Donald Trump issue an emergency disaster declaration for 35 counties, with Trump approving of the request on October 9.[30] Officials in Bay, Gulf, and Wakulla counties issued mandatory evacuation orders on October 8 for those living near the coast, in mobile homes, or in other weak dwellings.[31]Florida State University's main campus in Tallahassee and a satellite campus in Panama City, Florida, were closed from October 9 through October 12. Florida A&M University and Tallahassee Community College closed several campuses through October 14, while weekend classes and events were canceled at the former.[32] Public schools were closed in 26 counties, mainly in the Florida Panhandle.[30] On October 8, Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches were issued for the Gulf Coast.

Georgia Governor Nathan Deal declared a state of emergency for 92 counties in the southern and central portions of the state on October 9. Several colleges and universities in south Georgia were to close for a few days.[33]

375,000 people were asked to evacuate as the storm strengthened, with sustained winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) and storm surge up to 14 ft (4.3 m) expected.[34]

Impact

Central America

The combined effects of the precursor low to Michael and a disturbance over the Pacific Ocean caused significant flooding across Central America.[36] At least 15 fatalities occurred: 8 in Honduras,[37] 4 in Nicaragua, and 3 in El Salvador.[36][38] In Honduras, torrential rain caused at least seven rivers to overtop their banks; nine communities became isolated. More than 1,000 homes sustained damage, of which 9 were destroyed, affecting more than 15,000 people. Nationwide, 78 shelters housed displaced persons and relief agencies procured 36 tonnes of aid.[37] Nearly 2,000 homes in Nicaragua suffered damage, and 1,115 people were evacuated. A total of 253 homes were damaged in El Salvador.[36] Damage across the region exceeded $100 million.[1]

Cuba

About 70% of the offshore Isla de la Juventud lost power.[39] High winds left more than 200,000 people without power in the province of Pinar del Río.[28] Officials sent 500 power workers to the area to restore electricity.[28]

According to the Edison Electric Institute, at one point 1.2 million electricity customers were without power in several east coast and southern states.[42] In October, AOL estimated damage throughout the United States to have exceeded $15 billion.[43]

Florida

Michael made landfall as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h), at 12:15 CDT (17:15 UTC) on October 10, in Mexico Beach, Florida, and near Tyndall Air Force Base.[44] A wind gust of 139 mph (224 km/h) was recorded at Tyndall Air Force Base, along with sustained winds of 86 mph (138 km/h), before the station failed prior to the arrival of Michael's inner eyewall. The base sustained devastating wind damage after being directly impacted by the hurricane's violent eyewall. Every structure on the base sustained damage, and some were completely shredded by the intense winds. Vehicles were tossed through parking lots and destroyed, large hangars were severely damaged, and an F-15 that was on display was flipped onto its roof. Large forests in the area were almost entirely flattened to the ground, while trees that remained standing on and around the base were completely stripped and denuded. Several F-22 fighters were also damaged, with a replacement value of about $6 billion if repair is not possible.[45][2]

In Mexico Beach, catastrophic and widespread destruction occurred as many homes were flattened or completely swept away by a 14 ft (4.3 m) storm surge and high-end Category 4 winds. The remnants of many homes were scattered across U.S. Route 98, which had large sections of pavement washed away. Entire neighborhoods in Mexico Beach were reduced to nothing but bare foundation slabs, and numerous vehicles, businesses, apartment buildings, and hotels throughout the community were destroyed or severely damaged. Countless trees in the area were snapped and denuded, including a few that sustained some debarking.[46][47] The National Guard rescued about 20 people, while it was estimated that as many as 285 residents of the small town may have stayed. Severe damage from storm surge and intense winds also occurred at St. George Island, in Port St. Joe, and in Apalachicola, where a storm surge of 8.50 ft (2.59 m) was recorded. Downtown Port St. Joe sustained extensive damage, and the storm surge left boats and other debris deposited in yards, streets, and parking lots in town. Michael's intense eyewall caused major structural damage as far inland as Marianna, where buildings in the downtown area were severely damaged, leaving streets covered in bricks, lumber, and structural debris from collapsed roofs and walls. Homes and churches in town were heavily damaged, and countless trees and power lines were downed.[48] The hurricane also dropped torrential rainfall along its path, reaching 5.05 in (128 mm) near Scotts Ferry. Debris on Interstate 10 resulted in the roadway being closed between Lake Seminole and Tallahassee, a distance of about 80 mi (130 km). In Tallahassee, many trees fell across the city and approximately 110,000 businesses and homes were left without electricity, while a sewer system failed. In Chattahoochee, the Florida State Hospital – the oldest and largest psychiatric hospital in the state – became isolated, forcing aid to be dropped by helicopter.[49]

The western half of Michael's eyewall passed directly over Panama City, and violent Category 4 winds caused incredible damage throughout the city and its suburbs. Numerous businesses including restaurants, gas stations, shopping centers, office buildings, retail stores, and hotels sustained major structural damage or were destroyed, including several structures that were completely leveled to the ground. In residential areas, homes and apartment buildings lost their roofs and exterior walls, and many trees were toppled or snapped or completely defoliated. Vehicles were flipped and overturned, Jinks Middle School sustained destruction of its gymnasium, and a freight train was derailed as well. The powerful winds knocked out several television and radio stations near Panama City. NBC affiliate WJHG-TV and CBS affiliate WECP-LD were the first broadcast outlets to be affected, as their studio/transmitter link tower and parts of the studio's roof was destroyed.[50] ABC affiliate WMBB lost its main power and backup generator around 12:15 p.m. CDT. WMBB provided live coverage from its Nexstar Media Group-owned sister stations WFLA-TV in Tampa and WDHN in Dothan, Alabama, the latter of which, alongside CBS affiliate WTVY, was knocked off the air as Michael passed over the Wiregrass Region. iHeartMedia's Panama City radio cluster – WDIZ (590 AM), WEBZ (99.3 FM), WFLF-FM (94.5), WFSY (98.5 FM) and WPAP (92.5 FM) – switched to programming from the company's Tallahassee cluster as Michael made landfall, before the STL tower at their facility was felled; station staff were reported trapped at the facility due to flooding that also crept into the building. Other radio stations knocked off the air included WASJ [105.1 FM], WKNK [103.5 FM], WPFM [107.9 FM], WRBA [95.9 FM], WILN [105.9 FM], WWLY [100.1 FM], WYOO [101.1 FM], WYYX [97.7 FM], and Gulf Coast State College-owned WKGC-AM-FM (1480 and 90.7.[50] WPAP and WFSY returned to the air during the evening of October 10 with locally originated coverage, with WKGC following suit with programming originating from the Bay County Emergency Operations Center and using WMBB staff.)[50] Due to "catastrophic damage" sustained to its broadcast facility on Panama City Beach after it received water damage when a collapsed portion of its 150 feet (46 m) STL tower punched a hole in the roof of the building, Powell Broadcasting announced on October 13 that it would cease the operations of all of its Panama City radio stations.[51]

Four deaths occurred in Gadsden County,[52] and another three deaths occurred in Marianna, Jackson County. A body was discovered by rescue crews in Mexico Beach on October 12.[53] By October 28, a total of 35 people were officially confirmed to have been killed by the hurricane in Florida, with hundreds still unaccounted for.[35][54]
Approximately 3 million acres of timber was damaged or destroyed statewide, costing an estimated $1.3 billion. Total agricultural loss statewide were about $1.5 billion,[6] and insurance loss were at $2.6 billion.[3]

Georgia

In southern Georgia, sustained winds peaked at 115 mph (185 km/h) in Donalsonville, where significant damage to structures and trees occurred. Tropical storm force wind gusts were observed as far north as Athens and Atlanta. More than 400,000 electrical customers in Georgia were left without power. At least 127 roads throughout the state were blocked by fallen trees or debris.[55] In Albany, where wind gusts reached 74 mph (118 km/h),[49] 24,270 electrical customers lost power. Numerous trees fell on homes and roads, blocking about 100 intersections. Winds also ripped siding off of homes and shattered windows at the convention center. A tornado in Crawford County damaged seven homes.[56] An 11-year-old girl in Seminole County died after a tree fell on her home.[55]

Agriculture across the state suffered tremendous losses. As of October 18, estimated damage in the agriculture industry alone reached $2.38–2.89 billion. Forestry experienced the greatest losses at $1 billion, with about 1 million acres of trees destroyed. Described as a "generational loss", pecan farms in many areas were wiped out. Farmers were still recovering from damage incurred by Hurricane Irma during the preceding year. The entire crop in Seminole County was lost and 85 percent was lost in Decatur. Initially expected to be a record harvest, a large portion of the cotton crop—worth an estimated $300–800 million—was wiped out. $480 million-worth of vegetables were destroyed. In the poultry industry, more than 2 million chickens died due to the storm, and the loss were about $25 million.[5] The insurance claims throughout the state were about $700 million.[4]

Elsewhere

As the storm passed through North Carolina, 490,000 Duke Energy customers were left without power late on October 11. 342,000 remained without power in the state 24 hours later.[57] A tree fell on a car in Statesville, killing the driver.[58] Two others died in Marion when they crashed into a tree that had fallen across a road.[53]

In Virginia, four people including a firefighter were washed away by floodwaters, and another firefighter was killed in a vehicle accident on Interstate 295.[59] A sixth fatality was discovered when the body of a woman was found on October 13.[60] At least 1,200 roads were closed, and hundreds of trees were downed. Up to 600,000 people were left without power at the height of the storm.[53]

In Maryland, the remnants of Michael dropped 7 inches (180 mm) of rain over a period of a few hours in Wicomico County on October 11. Flooding from the Rockawalkin Creek damaged a portion of Maryland Route 349, forcing the road to be closed.[61] The remnants of Michael flooded homes in the Canal Woods neighborhood in Salisbury.[62]

Aftermath

President Trump distributes water in Florida on October 15

On October 9 – a day before Hurricane Michael made landfall – President Donald Trump signed an emergency declaration for Florida, which authorized the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to coordinate disaster efforts, with Thomas McCool serving as Federal Coordinating Officer in the state. The declaration also authorized funding for 75% of the cost of emergency protective measures and the removal of storm debris in 14 Florida counties. The federal government also provided for 75% of the cost of emergency protective measures in an additional 21 counties.[63] On October 11, President Trump declared a major disaster in five counties: Bay, Franklin, Gulf, Taylor, and Wakulla. Residents in the county were able to receive grants for house repairs, temporary shelter, loans for uninsured property losses, and business loans.[64]

Due to the storm damage in Georgia, President Trump also signed an emergency declaration for Georgia, where FEMA activity was coordinated by Manny J. Torro. The declaration authorized funding for 75% of the cost of emergency protective measures and the removal of storm debris in 31 Georgia counties, and 75% of the cost of emergency protective measures in an additional 77 counties.[65]

Records

With top sustained winds of 155 mph (250 km/h) and a central pressure of 919 mbar (hPa; 27.14 inHg) at landfall, Michael was the most intense landfalling U.S. hurricane since Camille in 1969, which had a central pressure of 900 mbar (hPa; 26.58 inHg), and the strongest by wind speed since Andrew in 1992, which had 165 mph (270 km/h) winds.[44] Michael tied with 2017's Hurricane Maria and a typhoon in 1900 for the seventh-strongest tropical cyclone by wind to impact the United States (including its overseas territories), and was the fourth strongest to impact the U.S. mainland.[66] Additionally, Michael was the second-most-intense hurricane by pressure to make landfall in Florida, behind the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, and the third strongest by wind, behind the 1935 hurricane and Andrew.[67]

Michael was the second-most intense recorded hurricane to have made landfall during the month of October in the North Atlantic basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea), behind the 1924 Cuba hurricane,[68] and was one of only two Category 4 hurricanes to have made landfall in Florida in October – the other being Hurricane King in 1950.[69] Michael was also the first recorded Category 4 hurricane to strike the Florida Panhandle since reliable records began in 1851.[70]

Although Michael weakened as it moved inland, it entered southwestern Georgia as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h),[20] becoming the first storm to impact the state as a major hurricane since 1898.[21]