Can Solo Break Memorial Day Box Office Records?

The Memorial Day holiday weekend is often one of the biggest box office weekends of the year, with studios often rolling out some of their biggest movies of the year. This year, only one studio will be doing so, with Disney and LucasFilm bringing Solo: A Star Wars Story to theaters, with no other competition in wide release, a rarity for any Memorial Day or any holiday weekend, which are often times quite jam-packed with three or four tentpoles in wide release. While early projections have indicated that Solo: A Star Wars Story will set a new Memorial Day holiday weekend record, and we're predicting that it will break the box office record, but not by as much as believed before. We're projecting a three-day tally of $110.5 million and a four-day tally of $140.8 million.

The early box office projections from industry analysts indicated a $170 million four-day tally for the holiday weekend, which would easily be enough to break the four-day Memorial Day record of $139.8 million set in 2007 by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Our projection of $140.8 million is clearly cutting it pretty close to the record set 11 years ago by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, the final installment of the original trilogy. One thing that certainly helps Solo: A Star Wars Story's box office prospects is that it has no direct competition, but it will be facing Deadpool 2 in its second weekend, which we're predicting will take in $80.2 million over the four-day holiday.

While the final theater count numbers won't be available until later this week, it is believed to roll out in roughly 4,200 theaters. If Avengers: Infinity War doesn't drop any theaters this weekend, its possible there could be three movies that are playing in over 4,000 theaters, with Avengers: Infinity War currently in 4,002 theaters and Deadpool 2 in 4,349 theaters. Still, it seems likely that Avengers: Infinity War will drop below 4,000 theaters with the arrival of Solo: A Star Wars Story, but we won't know for sure until the final theater count numbers are released later this week.

Solo: A Star Wars Story is currently sitting at a 71% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which is still on the "Fresh" side but it is also currently the lowest rated Star Wars movie since Disney purchased LucasFilm in 2012. 2015's Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned a 93% rating on RT, 2016's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story earned 85% on RT and last year's Star Wars: The Last Jedi took in 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. It's possible that the RT rating could improve in the next few days before its Friday opening, but that remains to be seen. All of that said, Solo will no doubt be one of the biggest summer movies of 2018.

We're projecting the top 10 for the four-day weekend will be rounded out by Deadpool 2 ($80.2 million), Avengers: Infinity War ($19.7 million), Book Club ($9.4 million), Life of the Party ($4.9 million), Breaking In ($3.9 million), Show Dogs ($3.7 million), Overboard ($2.9 million), A Quiet Place ($2 million), Rampage ($1.1 million). Looking ahead to next weekend, only two movies will be arriving in wide release, Paramount's action-comedy Action Point and STX Entertainment's drama Adrift. Take a look at our projections for the top 10 at the box office for the weekend of May 25, and check back on Sunday for the top 10 estimates, courtesy of Box Office Mojo.