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Jordan: The Canary in the Coal Mine

After the United States initiated an airstrike campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), Jordanannounced that it was one of five Arab states participating in the effort. Jordan weathered the Arab Spring by holding elections and initiating some political reforms, and has stayed a step ahead of the Islamic insurgency through its strong intelligence service and robust counterterrorism measures. While concern is spreading that ISIL might conduct a retaliatory attack inside of Jordan — akin to the bombing of several hotels in Amman in 2005 — the more significant threat ISIL could pose to the kingdom is instigating a push for regime change in the long term by capitalizing on existing social and political tensions.