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Brandon Morrow is already a decent fantasy starter, due to the high number of strikeouts he gets owners every outing. However, he tends to walk too many guys, which can lead to serious problems. I don’t care what NERD says, Brandon Morrow is not a fun guy to watch pitch if you have an interest in the outcome of his starts.

But, during June, Brandon Morrow was super awesome. Morrow pitched 33 innings, striking out 34 while walking only 10. Now, a guy walking 10 batters a month isn’t exactly outstanding, but for Morrow it actually is. His June walk rate was 2.73 batters every nine innings, compared to over 5 batters every nine innings in April and May.

I was wondering what Morrow was doing differently in June, if anything, so I decided to talk to Dave Allen, our resident pitch f/x guru. He told me, and I quote:

I can’t really find anything in the pitchf/x data to indicate how he dropped his ball rate so much. His Zone%, OSwing% and the other likely candidates are all very similar. I also don’t see much difference between where his pitches are ending up in the zone in June compared to May/April. I think it might be just a small sample size thing…Also with just 33 innings it is hard to find tons of patterns in the data.

I find this to be strange, but I’m going to trust Dave on this one. Just looking on the surface of the situation, it makes sense. Morrow’s Strike% was normal, so he wasn’t pounding the zone any more than usual.

Another interesting aspect of Morrow’s June was his batted ball types. Morrow, a flyball pitcher, got over 52% ground balls during the month of June. His rate on the year is 42.5%, and he’s reverted back to his old form in his two July starts.

In his first start of July, Morrow struck out seven while walking one batter, in six innings of work. While he struggled against the Red Sox this past weekend, Morrow has at least shown the potential to limit the free passes. Keep an eye on him, because if this trend continues, he’ll be worth a pickup.

Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.

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Jeffrey Gross

I have one issue with Morrow’s June: It comes paired with a decreased f-strike%, which is pretty well related to BB/9 (R^2 in in excess of .400).

Per my research, the elasticity relation between F-Strike% and BB/9 is that a +1% change in F-Strike% (not a 1% point increase) generally has a corollary -0.639% change in BB/9.

Thus, signs of worry aplenty

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6 years 4 months ago

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DonCoburleone

Regardless if June was a precursor to Morrow becomming a (borderline) Ace or just a small sample thing, but either way I’d much rather have him in my organization than Brandon freaking League… Yet another “brilliant” move by Jack Z that no one on this site seems to remember.

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6 years 4 months ago

Guest

hjhjkhjk

Brandon League isn’t someone i would hate to have in my bullpen.

His splitter, when he is on, is one of the best pitches i have ever seen. Its fucking filthy. Combining that with a high 90s heater, he really does have the potential to be a great closer.

Oh, I completely agree. It was an understandable and justifiable move, just not one I would have made at the time.

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6 years 4 months ago

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Jeffrey

Actually, I have no problem with your comment Zach. My criticism was more directed at “DonCoburleone.”

As I noted above, the elasticity relation between F-Strike% and BB/9 is that a +1% change in F-Strike% (not a 1% point increase) generally has a corollary -0.639% change in BB/9. Morrow’s “improved” BB/9 has come with a decline in F-Strike%. Hence, I’m not in any way sold Morrow’s “turned it around” yet.

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6 years 4 months ago

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Jeffrey

Ugh I suck at threading comments. FAIL

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6 years 4 months ago

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everdiso

I can’t seem to find the numbers I need, but I’d suggest you look closely at Morrow’s average VELOCITY in June.

I would guess that the numbers would show that it is down significantly – he has clearly changed his approach and has stopped trying to throw it 100mph every pitch, choosing to sit his fastballs more in the 92-93 range than the 95-96 range, and ever since he and the coaches made that change about a month or month and a half ago, his control issues have largely dissappeared.