The payments are for the 2017 crop year, but the final determination and issuance of payments are not made until the last three months of 2018.

Producers face a challenging profit environment for 2018, and any source of revenue will be important in projecting cash flow, according to Andy Swenson, NDSU Extension farm and family resource management specialist.

“With current U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) price projections, base acres of canola, corn, wheat, barley, sunflower and flax should generate payments if enrolled in the PLC program,” Swenson says. “Amounts will vary from farm to farm, but a typical situation in North Dakota would be around $40 per base acre of canola and flax, $30 per acre for the wheat base and $20 per base acre of barley and sunflower.”

The PLC safety net is triggered by low prices. Payments will be reduced or eliminated if prices rise, but this loss of revenue could be offset by greater income from the market if producers grow those crops.

The ARC program is more complicated and difficult to project because it is a safety net triggered by the combination of price and yield, Swenson says.

Current USDA price projections indicate that if actual 2017 county yields are the same as the county benchmark yield, wheat and flax base acres would generate a maximum ARC payment, and the corn, barley and oats base would generate about half of a maximum payment.

The maximum possible ARC payment for the 2017 crop year will vary by crop and by county in North Dakota but would range from about $20 to $35 per wheat base acre and between $15 and $25 per flax base acre.

Using the USDA’s current price projections and average county yields in 2017, the sunflower base enrolled in the ARC program will generate a slight payment and soybeans are right on the edge. The soybean base would generate an ARC payment if the county yield is one bushel or more below the county average yield.

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