A study on the Athens summer Olympics says that richer, bigger countries like the U.S. will walk away with the most gold medals – a total of 37 for America.

“When you get down to it, the national success at the Olympics is as much about economics as about individual athletic prowess,” said economist Andrew Bernard, a professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business.

Bernard and Meghan Busse of the Haas School of Business at Berkeley created a scientific model for predicting Olympic wins – which has been 96 percent accurate in past events.

It’s based on four factors about an athlete’s home country: population, per capita income, past performance and a host-effect.

Although the U.S. may again capture the most medals – 93, including 37 gold – it’s the third straight year of declining counts in total medals won by the U.S.