Kevin Rudd's three-stage siege on the Labor leadership has cost the party direct political support and could destroy it for a generation according to a Gillard camp review of opinion polls before and after his two previous leadership tilts.

The figures ... show Labor's standing with voters has headed south.

Its release represents a new stage in the internecine warfare between the current and former prime ministers as Labor MPs stare electoral annihilation in the face.

The constant shadow cast by Kevin Rudd over the Labor leadership could cost the ALP the election. Photo: Getty Images

As Ms Gillard braces for her toughest week as Prime Minister with a final bruising showdown widely expected, a senior minister has told Fairfax Media that the only certain effect of Mr Rudd's "revenge mission" has been to send the ALP's stocks into the basement, guaranteeing that Tony Abbott will be prime minister after the election.

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The figures, based on the results of the monthly Fairfax-Nielsen poll, the fortnightly Newspoll, and others, show Labor's standing with voters has headed south immediately following the last two raids on the top job by Mr Rudd and his backers.

It shows Labor trailed by just four points with 48 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to the Coalition's 52 per cent in Newspoll's March 10 survey.

Smiling all the way to the polls: Tony Abbott is the only winner in the Labor debacle.

However, this gap quadrupled to 16 percentage points in the Newspoll taken just after the March 21 leadership crisis in which Mr Rudd forced a spill, but then failed to stand.

In the corresponding Fairfax-Nielsen poll, Labor's deficit blew out from eight points to 14 points across the two polls taken before and after the March 2013 no-show.

In February last year, Labor's poll deficit also more than doubled from six points before the ballot - which Ms Gillard won easily by almost two to one - to 14 points in the month after the contest, according to the Fairfax-Nielsen poll.

Illustration:Rocco Fazzari

And on Monday, a Newspoll showed Labor's primary vote at 29 per cent with the Coalition on 48 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor's one percentage point gain to 43 per cent still remains far behind the Coalition on 57 per cent.

The Gillard camp assessment of the impact of the leadership tensions reveals it wants to leave no doubt as to who is to blame for the destabilisation, as the gloves come off before the final sitting week of Parliament.

What the poll assessment does not factor in, though, is the negative impact of a series of political blunders and tactical errors by Labor which have rocked the confidence of MPs in Ms Gillard's political judgment and brought the government into disrepute.

Labor is now all but consumed by its own troubles. The Gillard camp, which at this stage includes the entire ministry, maintains that it is up to Mr Rudd to make a move if he has the numbers.

But the release of the poll assessment is evidence of the wider battle within the ALP parliamentary party for the hearts and minds of MPs terrified of losing their seats, and of their party being consigned to opposition for several parliamentary terms over a personal rivalry they have no way of controlling.

Neither side seems to know if the stand-off will lead to another leadership ballot this week amid concerns over the constitutional complications of Labor not commanding a parliamentary majority in its own right, and the attitudes of crossbench MPs.

But hostilities will need to be put on hold on Tuesday afternoon anyway as the antagonists attend the Hazel Hawke memorial in Sydney.

These polls are not scientific and reflect the opinion only of visitors who have chosen to participate.

735 comments

Hilarious stuff. It’s all Rudd’s fault. It seems the authors of the review have ignored the policy and management disasters which have led to the Rudd challenges.

Maybe other reasons exist - Gillard, Swan, Conroy and Roxon. Labor are obviously in full denial mode, in need of medical attention. Perhaps a decade without the obvious burden of government and power may help them return to full health.

One thing is clear though - until all of them are out of Canberra, including Rudd, the renewal process can’t begin.

Commenter

Hacka

Location

Canberra

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 6:40AM

Too funny Gillard and the faceless men of the Labor party remove a first time Prime Minister that Australians voted for with Gillard never having popular support in the electorate and she wasn't voted in by the people in 2010 and now it's Rudd's fault.

Serves Gillard and her henchmen right and the electorate have had enough - Labor needs to lose office to find its way.

Commenter

George

Location

East Melbourne

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:47AM

Good morning Hacka......

Commenter

Tadd

Location

NSW

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:52AM

Its not my fault, It Tony, Its Kevin, its the media, its all the sexist men in the world.

oh please they should get over themselves and realize that many of the policies they have implemented is the reason why the voting public has turned off.

The whole cabinet should resign and just quit.

Commenter

WhatThe

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:54AM

Yes. These folks have made Bart Simpson look like an amateur when it comes to blaming others. The only thing that will wake all of them up is a damn good shock therapy coming soon courtesy of former labor voters.

Commenter

former labor voter

Location

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:58AM

Yes, it is funny. Now it is all his fault, because we backstabbed him.

Seems like Gillard camp thinks that voters are brainless.

Commenter

dinkumnet

Location

dinkumnet.com

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:59AM

Well, Gillard is certainly consistent, isn't she? It's always someone else's fault. It can't possibly be the Carbon Tax she wasn't going to impose? Or maybe the Mining Tax that raises zippo revenue? Or how about the unfunded NDIS thought bubble? A Gonski that even Garrett cannot explain? An NBN deployment that has ground to a halt? Or is it all the tragic drownings at sea? Yeah, it's all Rudd's fault. I see now.

Commenter

luke

Location

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 7:59AM

What is immensely interesting is the difference between Rudd and Gillard - when they both essentially stand for the same thing. Particularly with regards to border protection, with Rudd as the architect of its removal and Gillard as its continuing champion. Maybe there is a hint of truth in the misogyny angle. However, it probably has more to do with certain sections of the ethnic community who have a bias against female equality as part of their traditional culture. The femo-lefties have been instrumental in perpetuating multiculturalism, but they have just missed the bit about gender inequality inherent in some of these cultures. Ironic.

Commenter

Malik the magic sheep

Location

Perth

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 8:02AM

Quite right but to balance the argument lets examine the policies and talent of the opposition - as usual they escape any scrutiny - would love yo have seen how Abbott would have managed a minority government

Commenter

Wal2111

Date and time

June 24, 2013, 8:02AM

Agree. It's not that she's a woman, it's not Rudd's fault, it's her and her inner circle that are driving their policy and implementing it badly. I personally can't afford another three years of Gillard and her cronies; every time they stuff something up they go for my back pocket to bail themselves out. If they hadn't stuffed the mining tax we wouldn't be paying extra for their big ticket items (Gonski, NDIS).

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