Thursday, November 10, 2016

My first post on this blog in years comes on the day after Donald J. Trump won a stunning election over Hillary Clinton and made us all come to grips with the coming horror show that will be a Trump administration. Democrats, college-educated whites, and minorities all over America are wondering, how did we fuck this up? There are plenty of takes on this issue from just about every media outlet around the world today about scandals, political vision, polling, and the media's role in this outcome, but I'm going to focus very simply on one question: what does a Trump electorate look like? Who is responsible for this mess?

I was listening to NPR this morning, and I heard one of the hosts ask a guest about minority turnout being down. The guest pushed back very hard against this narrative about minority turnout being to blame and focused instead on the white vote margins, which broke hard for Trump. So I looked into the exit polls from last night to come up with some answers and see which of these perspectives is right. It turns out that with only a couple of exceptions, it was the overwhelming and sudden turn towards conservatism by white voters that governed this election.

My analysis focuses exclusively on race and the share of turnout in the last four presidential elections in exit polls for 25 states in four different regions of the U.S.

White turnout

White turnout in the Northeast as a percentage of the overall electorate was mostly down, continuing the demographic trends of past elections. The big exception to this though was Pennsylvania, where the white share of voters increased from 78% in 2012 to 81% in 2016. This was the difference between a 1 point Clinton win and a 1 point Trump win.

In the South, white turnout was again mostly down as a percentage of the overall electorate. The exceptions were North Carolina and South Carolina, though neither increase by itself was enough to have an effect on the outcome.

The decreasing trend from 2012 to 2016 in white share of the electorate seen in other regions was not seen in several key states in the Midwest. The white share of the vote in Wisconsin, Ohio, and Missouri was not lower than in 2012, and Trump won all three of those states. However, the white share of the electorate was still down from 2004 and 2008, when Democrats won those states. White turnout alone in the Midwest was not the reason that Trump won.

White turnout in the West has been shrinking more rapidly than in other parts of the country, but the trend slowed down in 2016 or reversed itself altogether in the case of Arizona and Washington. I think it's interesting that over the past 12 years, Arizona's and Nevada's electorates have diverged, so that now Nevada's electorate resembles Las Vegas, while Arizona's electorate now more closely resembles Colorado's. Arizona was always a stretch for the Clinton campaign, and to turn it blue, Arizona's electorate would have had to have been much less white. That didn't happen.

Black Turnout

In New York, the black share of the electorate was stronger than it has ever been, at over 20%. In New Hampshire and Maine, black people don't exist. But in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the black share of the electorate fell by four and three percentage points, respectively. This, combined with the white turnout mentioned earlier, turned Pennsylvania from a 5 point Obama win to a 1 point Trump win. (It also dropped the Democrats' margin in New Jersey by 5 points, from an 18 point Obama victory to a 13 point Clinton victory.)

But Pennsylvania was only one state, and the mechanics of the Trump win were different in other states.

As a share of the total turnout, black turnout in the south was as strong as ever in Florida, Virginia and Georgia, but fell a few percentage points in the Carolinas. This is notable in North Carolina because there was significantly less early voting in 2016 than in 2012 due to a law passed by the North Carolina state legislature in 2013. Though the law was struck down by the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals, the early voting restrictions remained in place in many counties, including early voting on Sundays, which hurt black turnout. But black turnout was also way down in South Carolina, which doesn't have early voting, but also didn't have early voting in 2008 or 2004.

Black turnout versus white turnout was an important component of the Clinton loss in North Carolina, providing about 3.5 percentage points of her 4 percentage point loss.

Black turnout as a percentage of the electorate in the Midwest was mostly flat from 2012 to 2016, with the exception of Illinois, where turnout rose from 2012. However, in every state with exit polls in the Midwest, turnout was more diverse than in 2004.

In case that tweet is hard to read, Clinton garnered 129,000 fewer votes in heavily Democratic Detroit than Obama did four years ago — and lost the state by around 61,000 total votes. She also got 95,000 fewer votes in heavily Democratic Milwaukee than Obama did — and lost the state by 73,000 total votes.

Well, it is true that Clinton got 95,000 fewer votes from Milwaukee than Obama did, but Trump also got 30,000 fewer votes there than Romney did. Obama won Milwaukee 67% to 32%, and Clinton won Milwaukee 66% to 29%. Detroit is a different story: 73%-26% for Obama, but only 67%-30% for Clinton as of right now, and the vote margin in Wayne County is actually now 95,000 off from the Obama-Romney totals.

The narrow margin in Michigan means that there are many potential causes for Clinton's (presumed) loss, and so turnout could be one of them. Clinton is currently down by 0.3% in Michigan, but if 16% of the electorate was black voters like in 2012 instead of the 15% that it ended up at, Clinton's position would have improved by about 0.8%. But my point is, black turnout was only 12% in 2008, and Obama won by 17 percentage points. Something else went down in Michigan.

In the west, the black percentage of the electorate is less than 10% everywhere. Though black turnout fell (especially in California), it wasn't a large enough component of the electorate to make a difference to the presidential race.

Hispanic Turnout

I thought the 2016 election would be a breakout moment for the Hispanic electorate, but while the Hispanic share did rise nationally, the rate wasn't as meteoric as I would have hoped given Donald Trump's stance on immigration and the abilities of Indiana judge Gonzalo Curiel. Still, Hispanic turnout share wasn't down, and barring other changes this should have at least locked in 2012's electoral map. But it didn't.

Latinos are still a small percentage of the electorate in the Northeast, but besides New York, the Hispanic share of the electorate rose or, in Pennsylvania's case, remained steady. In order for Latinos to have swung Pennsylvania to the Clinton column, they would have needed to increase their share of the electorate by two percentage points at the expense of the white turnout over 2012's electorate, and that was probably unlikely anyways.

The Hispanic population in the South is only large enough to make an electoral impact in the states of Florida and Texas, and it turns out that they showed up to the polls in 2016. In part because of strong Hispanic turnout in Texas, Trump's margin appears to be smaller than Romney's was in 2012. However, that was not the case in Florida, won by Obama twice, which went for Trump despite the Hispanic share of the electorate increasing 5 percent since 2008. Therefore, unlike in Pennsylvania, turnout was not the determining factor in Clinton's loss in Florida.

The Hispanic portion of the electorate was not large enough to have much of an effect on the 2012 election in the Midwest (except in Illinois), and the Hispanic portion of the electorate continued to not be large enough to have much of an effect on the 2016 election in the Midwest (except in Illinois).

Conversely, Hispanic turnout is very important to Democratic victories in the West. But while California and New Mexico showed stronger Hispanic turnout than in 2012 (in California's case, an increase of an astounding 9 percentage points), the Hispanic share of the electorate was flat or decreasing in Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Washington. In Nevada, Colorado and Washington, this didn't have an effect on the outcome (though it almost did in Nevada). But in Arizona, an unexpected decrease in Hispanic turnout share meant that Clinton's dreams for winning the state never had a chance.

Overall, with few exceptions, the turnout of minorities was not down and turnout of white people was not up, at least not as a share of the overall electorate. One of the exceptions was Pennsylvania, where minority turnout was decisive, and turnout also played a limited role in the Trump win in North Carolina. But Florida and most of the surprise states in the Midwest were won by Trump not because black and Hispanic people didn't get to the polls, but rather because the white voters who showed up were overwhelmingly more Republican than white voters in past elections.

White vote margins

For these graphs, an upward movement indicates more votes for the Democrat while a downward movement indicates more votes for the Republican. In the Northeast, more white voters chose Trump than chose Romney. Only in Maine did Clinton win white voters, barely, while in New Hampshire, for the first time since 2000, the Democrat lost the white vote. New Hampshire's very small community of minority voters was just large enough to save the state for Clinton, by a whopping 0.2% as of this writing.

But most interesting to me is the fact that Pennsylvania's white voters did not choose Trump much more than they chose Romney in 2012, when Romney lost the state by 5 points. In Pennsylvania, like almost nowhere else in the country, it really was turnout that made the difference and not the increased conservative nature of white folk.

White Democratic voters in the South have been in the minority for awhile, and all the points above are well below the zero-line for Democrats, but movement towards Trump was only a big feature in one of these states: Florida. Democrats went from losing white voters by 24 percentage points in 2012 to losing white voters by 31 percentage points, and this made all the difference in the outcome, even though white turnout share declined by five points.

Notice that North Carolina's white voters actually grew more liberal. While turnout share for white people slightly increased, those voters were also slightly more Democratic than in 2012. While Clinton's loss in North Carolina wasn't entirely due to lower black turnout, it also wasn't even partially due to an increasingly conservative white electorate, as in other states.

Georgia was another stretch goal of the Clinton campaign, but it was always going to require either massive black turnout or a liberalization of the white vote akin to what has happened in Virginia and North Carolina. But Georgia's white vote was as solidly Republican as ever, so it didn't happen. Texas though got closer.

This is, I believe, the most meaningful chart to explain Clinton's loss of the Midwest and therefore the presidency. The Northeast's white voters plunged more conservative, but they started from a high Democratic Party preference. The South's white voters have been staunchly conservative for some time, but they did not grow more conservative with the Trump election. However, the Midwest has seen its white voters grow rapidly conservative since they elected Obama in 2008.

Look at 2008. White voters approved of the Democrat in Illinois, sure, but also Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Ohio wasn't so far behind either. Since that election, white voters in the Midwest turned hard against Democrats, in both 2012 and 2016. White Michigan voters went 51% - 47% for Obama in 2008. Clinton just lost them 36% to 57%! A 25-point swing in just eight years!

It is almost the same story in Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana and Missouri. White voters moved 21 percentage points more Republican in Wisconsin, 19 percentage points in Ohio, 23 percentage points in both Indiana and Missouri. In 2012, Democrats overcame the drop in Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin by turning out minority voters, which was enough to keep the Midwest blue for a cycle. But the white vote continued to plummet for Democrats, and it was too much for minority voters to overcome. And it wasn't turnout at all. The electorate was marginally more diverse than in 2012, and certainly more diverse than in 2004. It was just that white voters are voting for Republicans by much larger margins than they used to.

However the white apocalypse for Clinton was not a national phenomenon, it was just a Midwest / Northeast thing. White voters in the South were more or less the same, while white voters in the West actually turned more toward Clinton than they had for Obama in 2012, for the most part. White voters actually picked Clinton in California and Washington, while the margin was close enough in Colorado and New Mexico that Latino voters were able to overcome the margins and give Clinton comfortable wins in those states. Arizona was competitive for so long even though white turnout was up only because white voters moved 21 percentage points closer to the Democrat.

Nevada almost went to Trump because it was the one western state (with exit polls) that showed more white voters were voting Republican than in years past. Clinton's win in that state, at 2.5%, will be much narrower than Obama's 7 point victory over Romney.

Black vote margins

The margins that black voters gave to Hillary Clinton were down fairly significantly everywhere from the margins that black voters gave to Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012. (I don't know what the deal is with Illinois either.) The effect was more noticeable in some states than others, but determinative in almost none due to the fact that black voters don't make up a huge part of the electorate in many states. However, the effect moved the polls almost 2% more towards Trump in North Carolina, so that when combined with the lower black turnout it proved to be consequential. If black turnout in 2016 in North Carolina was the same as in 2012, and if black voters voted for Clinton by the same margins as they voted for Obama in 2012, then North Carolina would have gone for Clinton.

Georgia, with its 30% black electorate, had the potential to be very close for Clinton if black voters voted for Clinton at the same (rather insane) 98% to 2% margin they voted for Obama in 2008, but very close is not the same as "would have won".

Florida's black voters, though smaller proportional to the electorate than other Southern states, had one of the larger movements towards Trump among black voters nationally, and had they voted at the same rate for Clinton as they did for Obama in 2012, Clinton's position would be 1.5 percentage points better. That is just about the margin by which Trump will beat her in Florida.

Hispanic vote margins

Even with all the anti-Mexican rhetoric from Trump on the campaign trail, Latinos voted for Hillary Clinton at lower margins nationally than they had for Barack Obama in 2012.

While the margins that black voters gave Democrats were pretty much the same everywhere, there was a great diversity to the Latino vote depending on the state. However, the small size of the Latino electorate in most states means that the movements aren't very impactful. In Florida and Texas, Hispanics are generally more conservative than Hispanics in the rest of the nation, but Florida's Hispanics have grown precipitously more liberal in the last 12 years, and that trend continued in 2016, so it had no effect on Trump's victory in that state. The effect of Texas's relatively conservative Latinos amounted to about 4 percentage points for Trump, but Trump won Texas by 9 or 10 points, so this isn't determinative of the result.

In the West, Latinos actually moved more in Trump's direction than they did in Romney's in 2012 in Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico. Clinton still won all those states but Arizona, which put a particularly sharp decline in the Democrat's margin from 2012. If Hispanics in Arizona voted for Hillary Clinton at the same vote margin that they voted for Barack Obama in 2012, Clinton would have done 3 points better in Arizona. However, she's losing by about 4.5 points now.

Conclusions

CNN looked at the national exit polls to do an autopsy of the Clinton loss, but they placed the blame on "African American, Latino and younger voters". But while it is true that turnout overall was down, Clinton lost primarily because white voters in the Midwest (and Florida) have grown substantially more conservative. States that Obama won in 2008 that Clinton lost included Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan (probably), Ohio, Indiana and Florida, and in all these states, the biggest electoral effect came not from minority turnout but rather from a more conservative white electorate. Only in two states won by Obama but lost by Clinton (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) did minority turnout have a greater effect on the election than the white turn towards Trump.

Friday, May 08, 2015

In part two of this series, I looked into the racial disparities of lethal acts of force by police officers in the United States in
2014. I found that black males had been killed by police at a rate of 13 deaths
per million, while white non-Hispanic males had been killed at a rate of only
4.4 deaths per million. A black male in 2014 was thus three times as likely to
have been killed by a police officer’s lethal act of force as a white male
was.

By itself though, this statistic doesn’t tell us much. After all, the violent crime rate for black
offenders is much higher than for white offenders. According to the Bureau of
Justice Statistics, the rate of black homicide offenders is almost eight times
as high as the rate of white homicide offenders.[1] It makes sense that murderers are more likely
to threaten a police officer with deadly force, so if police officers respond
to deadly threats by shooting all people who threaten them without regard to
race, then black people are probably going to be killed at a higher rate than
white people.

It’s impossible to use this data I've collected to say whether or not
police officers have racial biases. After all, we don’t know how many people
lived after confrontations with police; we just know how many died. But the data does raise many interesting
questions.

Why were unarmed black men shot and killed by police at a rate
5.5 times the rate at which unarmed white men were shot and killed by police in
2014, even though black men were only 3 times as likely to be killed by police as white men?

And why did Hispanic people who were both unarmed and non-threatening die
at a rate 8.4 times that of white people who were both unarmed and
non-threatening?

Methodology

I looked into the reasons why police officers used their
guns to shoot at people in these officer involved shooting incidents that
resulted in death. I gathered this data
from reading every news article and report I could find about every incident in
the killedbypolice.net database for 2014. Almost always included in these
articles was a statement from the agency responsible describing the scenario,
and embedded in most descriptions was a nexus for why the “officer involved
shooting” occurred. I stuck with the
police narrative as the “narrative of record” even if news reports talked to
witnesses or family members who disagreed with the police narrative. I only deviated from the police narrative for
three reasons:

A reputable media organization did really thorough
investigative reporting on an incident that would show the police narrative
couldn’t possibly be true, or

The investigation and district attorney’s report
about the incident revealed a different narrative than what police officers had
stated, or

There was irrefutable video evidence that the
police narrative wasn’t true.

In some cases, the police narrative was incomplete, or
contained only information about a weapon the decedent possessed rather than
whether a threat was made to the officers or bystanders. In these cases, I assumed that the decedent
was being confrontational with the weapon (brandishing a gun or knife), not
running away, and not aiming at or charging towards police officers in a
threatening way. If no weapon was mentioned, I assumed the decedent was
unarmed.

I categorized each incident by weapon used and by threat to
the officer or another victim. For these purposes I did not differentiate
between threat to an officer and threat to another specific victim in the officer’s presence.

Weapons

Gun

Knife

Vehicle

Some other weapon

Unarmed

Threats

Using force (shooting a gun; stabbing a victim
with a knife; striking a victim with a car; striking a victim with another
weapon; punching or kicking an officer or another victim regardless of who
started it)

Threatening force (aiming a gun; charging or
lunging with a knife or other weapon; charging at someone with a car; running
threateningly towards officers even if unarmed)

Being confrontational (brandishing a gun or
knife or other weapon; reaching for a gun; holding a non-weapon in a
threatening way in order to prompt a police response)

Non-threatening (running away while holding a
gun or knife or other weapon; driving away in a car; unarmed people who aren’t
holding fake weapons or threatening bodily harm to officers)

Comparing the threat nexus for black, white and Hispanic
people revealed some interesting facts.
Here are three of them.

Unarmed black people and physical struggles with
police

The percentage of decedents killed by police gunfire because
they were engaged in a physical struggle with police officers while unarmed was
significantly higher for black people than for all other races. The percentage of decedents of all races who
died of gunfire in an unarmed physical struggle with police was only 4%, but
this category made up 9% of black decedents.
This might mean that police officers resort more quickly to deadly force
when engaged in a physical struggle with a black person than with others, which
would be troubling. But it might also mean that police officers more often
encounter black people in situations where physical force is required, rather
than in standoff situations or during pursuits (this might also be why such a
high percentage of people who died from tasers were black.)

White people with guns pointed at police

While only 24% of decedents were killed by police in 2014
because they pointed (but did not fire) a gun at police or others, 29% of white
people killed by police were killed in this way. This is likely related to the
fact that by far the majority of calls made to police about suicidal people
were about white people.

While only 49%
of people killed by police in 2014 were white, 79% of people killed by police
after police were called about a suicidal person were white.

A typical suicide call involved a person with a gun (71% of
incidents). When the police would show
up, the person would typically point a gun at police in order to get the police
to respond by shooting the suicidal person (47% of incidents). Sometimes this
would happen quickly, and sometimes there would be a standoff of thirty minutes
or more (28% of incidents).

Non-threatening unarmed Hispanic people

Though only 4% of people killed by police in 2014 were both
unarmed and not threatening anyone, 10% of Hispanic people killed by police in
2014 were killed despite having no weapon (real or fake), despite throwing no
punches at cops, and despite not charging at cops. Only 3% of black people killed by police in
2014 fell into this category, and 2% of white people.

I don’t have an explanation for this unusual disparity. More
unarmed non-threatening Hispanic people died than in all other race categories
combined (52%), despite the fact that Hispanic people make up only 17% of the
population and only 19% of the deaths by police gunfire in 2014.

Here are the 33 unarmed non-threatening people that police
shot and killed in 2014

Most of the decedents whose homicides received national
attention are not found here (Michael Brown charged at a police officer, Eric
Garner wasn’t shot, James Boyd had a knife, Tamir Rice had a toy gun, John
Crawford III had an air rifle, Ezell Ford was shot during a physical struggle
with police, Darrien Hunt ran away while clutching a sword). Often these folks
are unsavory characters who were killed by police after committing crimes,
though there are several people who were killed over mistaken identity or stray
bullets. Hands making furtive movements or
reaching for waistbands are the reasons for many of these killings.

1. Enrique Carlos Rodarte

32 year old Hispanic male

Shot on January 12, 2014 by San Bernardino
County Sheriff’s Office

Victorville, California

Deputies responded to a 911 call about
shots being fired. When they got there, Rodarte fishtailed out of his friend’s
driveway. A deputy chased him for about
two blocks. Rodarte threw his pellet gun out the window and hurriedly drove to
his house, where he barricaded himself inside. A standoff ensued for 4.5 hours, during which
time Rodarte flipped cops off and told them to fuck themselves. Around 2:30 at
night, when Rodarte came out holding a 40-ounce beer while reaching into the
center pocket of his “poncho”, deputies believed he was reaching for a gun and
shot 30-40 rounds at him. Rodarte did not have a gun. Five deputies were
involved: Brad Bonnet, Paul Casas, Jason Fortier, David Page, and John Walker.
In March San Bernardino County District Attorney Michael Ramos cleared all
deputies of wrongdoing, saying that Rodarte had been “reaching into his
waistband in a manner consistent with weapon retrieval.”[2]

2. Manuel Orosco Longoria

40 year old Hispanic male

Shot on January 14, 2014 by Pinal County
Sheriff’s Office

Eloy, Arizona

Longoria had taken his sister's car without
her permission, so his sister filed a complaint. State troopers spotted
Longoria in the car near Casa Grande and attempted to pull him over. Longoria
instead led deputies on a chase to Eloy, where he then just drove around
downtown a bunch. After an hour, Longoria finally stopped and came out of his
car as 20 or so troopers, sheriff’s deputies and Eloy PD officers surrounded
him. He did not have a weapon, but he refused to comply with orders. He was
shot with beanbag rounds and apparently tasers as well, which made him crouch
and turn towards the Corolla he had emerged from, but he did not fall to the
ground. Then in his last conscious act, Longoria raised his hands high in the
air for a cell phone video to see as his back was turned to most of the
officers.[3]
Then Deputy Rankin fired two bullets at him. Rankin had taken anger management courses
for his domestic violence charge and had previously been involved in a punching
incident that left his hand injured for the better part of a year. He was the
only deputy to fire his weapon that day. Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu made
many statements to news media afterwards saying that he would have shot the
unarmed Longoria even earlier. In June, the Arizona AG's office cleared Deputy
Rankin of criminal wrongdoing.[4]

3. Pierree C. Davis

21 year old black male

Shot on January 26, 2014 by Federal Heights
PD

Federal Heights, Colorado

Davis had just robbed one Family Dollar
store when he decided to rob another. He ordered the clerks at the Family
Dollar on Pecos to give him cash or else he'd shoot them with his handgun. As
Davis was leaving the store, Officer Rick Lahr was waiting for him with his department
issued AR-15 assault rifle pointed at him. Davis ignored commands to stop
running away. Lahr shot Davis, but the wound was non-fatal. Davis fell, but got
up again with hands up. But then according to the district attorney’s report, Lahr
ordered Davis to get on the ground and to stop looking at him. Instead Davis kept moving his hands towards
his body, seemingly ignoring Lahr's commands to keep his palms visible. So Lahr
shot him again, this time fatally. Davis's handgun was found 10 yards away from
where he was shot. In May Colorado 17th District Attorney Dave Young cleared Officer
Lahr of criminal charges.[5]

4. Michael Paul Napier

33 year old white male

Shot on January 30, 2014 by San Diego
County Sheriff’s Office

Vista, California

Michael Paul Napier was working on his
bicycle in his parents’ garage one evening when deputies confronted him in
order to arrest him on a drug-related warrant. As Napier got up, he refused orders to show
his hands and instead reached for his waistband. Deputies Nicholas Danza and Brandon
Boisseranc then shot at Napier 15 times, with 7 shots striking Napier and
killing him. Napier's father said afterwards
that Napier was bipolar, but mental illness doesn't seem to be an issue in this
incident.[6]
Radley Balko of the Washington Post
mentioned this incident in a brief post about recent San Diego officer involved
shootings.[7]
In March 2015, Napier’s family filed a
wrongful death lawsuit against the San Diego County Sheriff’s Office.[8]

5. Javier Mendez

35 year old Hispanic male

Shot on February 13, 2014 by Los Angeles
County Sheriff’s Department

West Covina, California

Mendez had been at his mother’s house
demanding money from her. Someone called police to report this threat, and as
deputies arrived, Mendez’s car sped away. Mendez led deputies on a chase, then
bailed at a supermarket where he got out and started running. Mendez ran
through the supermarket, out the back door, over some fences and through some
back yards before encountering deputies at a house on the corner of Elberland
Street and Abelian Avenue. Deputies believed Mendez had a gun when he attempted
to rob his mother. But he did not have a
gun when they shot him in someone's back yard as he was fleeing police.[9]

6. Yvette Smith

45 year old black female

Shot on February 16, 2014 by Bastrop County
Sheriff’s Office

Bastrop, Texas

Sheriff’s deputies responded to a call
about gunshots at a house. Details are
still sketchy, but what is known is that the first statement on the incident
from the sheriff’s office stated that “the woman came to the doorway of the
residence displaying a firearm,” after which point she refused commands and got
shot by Deputy Daniel Willis (a white man).
The firearm part turned out to be not true. The sheriff’s office released another
statement saying they could not confirm that she had any weapon, let alone a
gun, when she was shot and killed. In
June 2014, a Bastrop County grand jury indicted Deputy Willis for murder. His trial is scheduled for June 2015. In August 2014, Smith's family filed a
$5,000,000 lawsuit against the sheriff's office.[10]
In April 2015, the Smith family settled with Bastrop County for $1.22 million.[11]

7. Deosaran Maharaj

51 year old Asian (subcontinent) male

Shot on March 16, 2014 by Broward Sheriff’s
Office

Pompano Beach, Florida

Maharaj, a coconut seller, was leaving a
gas station in his white pickup after apparently making a woman uneasy with his
machete. The woman told Deputy Paul Yesbeck, who happened to be at the gas
station, and Yesbeck followed Maharaj and pulled him over. Maharaj got out of
the vehicle, but would not follow Yesbeck's commands. Maharaj got back into the
cab of the truck. Local 10 investigative reporter Bob Norman said that Maharaj
was rooting around in the truck for something, and that's when Deputy Yesbeck
opened fire. Sheriff Scott Israel said that a machete was in plain view in the cab of the truck.[12]
An NBC report stated that the machete and many coconuts were found in the bed of the truck.[13]
The BSO report just states that Maharaj went to his truck and began rifling
through it.[14]
Broward sheriff officials later told family members that Maharaj was not
holding the machete when he was shot.[15]
Deputy Yesbeck retired from the force in August.

8. Hector Chairez

40 year old Hispanic male

Shot on March 20, 2014 by Monterey County
Sheriff’s Office

Carmel, California

Chairez and a woman had burglarized a house
and were getting away in a stolen Uhaul when Deputy Michael Fritsche and Deputy
Angus Wilhite tracked them down. Chairez's Uhaul struck the police car, and a
short chase ensued. Chairez and the woman eventually bailed, pursued by
deputies. Chairez hid behind a tree, and a short standoff ensued. Chairez told
deputies he didn't have a gun and that he needed help because he was suicidal.
He asked for mental help twice. Fritsche
later testified he had heard earlier that Chairez did have a gun through broken
scanner traffic, but dispatch was actually saying the burglary victim was the
one with the gun. Chairez made a move with his hands, as one does when one is
living, and Fritsche and Wilhite shot four times at him from no closer than 57
feet away, with three bullets striking him. Chairez had "lightly
cinched" a black belt around his neck during the standoff. In October,
Monterey County District Attorney Dean Flippo declined to press criminal
charges against Deputy Fritsche and Deputy Wilhite.[16]

9. Deandre Lloyd Starks

27 year old black male

Shot on March 25, 2014 by Tulsa PD

Tulsa, Oklahoma

Starks was carrying rocks of crack cocaine
at a house when Tulsa police arrived on a search warrant. Starks attempted to
flee but was shot with beanbag rounds to stop him. Starks “kept moving his
hands in a furtive motion in the front area of his hoodie and waistband area” according
to the district attorney. Officer Mark
Wollmershauser shot him after he refused to show his hands. No weapons were found on Starks or in the
house he was in. In April, the Tulsa
County DA Tim Harris found Officer Wollmershauser was justified in killing
Starks because he didn't show his hands.[17]

10. John Winkler

30 year old white male

Shot on April 7, 2014 by Los Angeles County
Sheriff’s Department

West Hollywood, California

This was a case of mistaken identity. On a call about a guy stabbing people inside
a West Hollywood apartment, deputies were surprised to encounter two men who
burst out of an apartment. The first man who exited was bleeding profusely from
the neck. Winkler followed close behind. The deputies on scene apparently were
confused when they saw Winkler “lunging at the back of the fleeing victim.”
Deputies shot Winkler four times and the other victim was shot once. Winkler
died from his injuries at a hospital. The other victim survived, though now
with a bullet wound to go along with his stabbing wounds. The thing is, Winkler and the man who was
bleeding were actually victims of a third man who lived inside the apartment
building. The deputies had been briefed by other witnesses about who the
suspect was, and they were shown pictures showing what he looked like. Winkler and the stabber did not look alike.
Deputies Michael Fairbanks, Byron Holloway and Gerardo Baldivia shot at Winkler
anyway. Winkler's parents filed a lawsuit against LA County Sheriffs in
December. The stabber has been charged
with Winkler’s murder. This is not an
accidental weapon discharge or a stray bullet intended for another person:
deputies aimed at Winkler and struck Winkler.[18]

11. Richard Ramirez

38 year old white male

Shot on April 14, 2014 by Billings PD

Billings, Montana

Ramirez was a passenger in a car being
pulled over by Billings police officer Grant Morrison. The dashboard video, with the audio, is
necessary to understand this incident. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJ2yNZTbvpg
/). Here's my transcript of this incident. [aggressive cop tone, 1:13] Hands
up! All four of you, hands up! [tone softens, 1:18] What were you doing, moving
your hands around so much? Making me nervous, man! Who are you? Richard?
[aggressive cop tone again, 1:28] All of you, put your fucking hands up right
now on top of the seats! *Dispatch ... I've got Richard Ramirez here, could
everybody step it up* [scared but aggressive cop voice, 1:36] Hands up! Hands
on the fucking, get your fucking hands up or I'm going to shoot you! [draws gun
at 1:40, is still standing literally 2 feet away from Ramirez] I will shoot
you! Hands up! [three shots fired at 1:42] HANDS UP! HANDS UP! I WILL SHOOT YOU
AGAIN! HANDS UP! YOU FUCKING MOVE I'M GOING TO SHOOT YOU! GET ON THE FUCKING
GROUND! GET ON THE GROUND! [calls dispatch about shots "fucking"
fired at 1:57]. I don't know what Ramirez's left hand was reaching for, but his
hand-non-compliance was not done in an attempt to fake the cop out to make him
believe he had a gun. There was only one person doing any threatening in this
situation, and it was Officer Morrison. A
coroner's jury ruled in January 2015 that Officer Morrison committed a
non-criminal, justified homicide. The initial stop seemed to be a traffic stop,
as Morrison later said that he wasn't aware that it was Ramirez, who was wanted
for questioning in a shooting incident the previous day, until he opened the
passenger door.

12. Brandon Leonel Monroy

20 year old Hispanic male

Shot on April 20, 2014 by Texas Department
of Public Safety (state troopers)

Lubbock, Texas

Monroy had been pulled over by Trooper
Corina Jandrew south of Lubbock. Monroy provided false identification, so
Jandrew arrested Monroy. Then as Monroy was handcuffed, he attempted to steal
the patrol vehicle somehow. Jandrew shot Monroy “during the attempted felony
theft”. Monroy died later that day at a hospital. No information on this incident has been
released since April of 2014. The statement makes no mention of Monroy using
the vehicle as a weapon against Trooper Jandrew or even that Monroy had
operated the vehicle at all. There was a
physical struggle, but it seemed to have occurred before the shooting took
place.[19]

13. Jason Conoscenti

36 year old white male

Shot on April 27, 2014 by Long Beach PD

Long Beach, California

Conoscenti had shoplifted at a Target in
Compton. He led deputies on a slow speed chase through south Los Angeles County
to Long Beach. On a dead-end street with
stairs at the end leading down to the beach, Conoscenti parked his car and a
brief standoff ensued. After about
fifteen minutes Conoscenti got out of the car carrying a wooden stick, but
rather than confronting the police, he walked away from them as they had
released a K-9 unit. A really good cell
phone video exists showing Conoscenti exiting the car with the stick, then
disappearing from view, then reappearing limping down the stairs stick-less,
with a police dog chasing him. It is at this point, in his stickless limping
condition, that Conoscenti was shot by Long Beach police. According to the statement
released by Long Beach police, they heard a gunshot and thought it came from
Conoscenti firing at the LA County Sheriff’s deputies at the top of the stairs.
The sound was probably the beanbag round being fired at Conoscenti by deputies.
Long Beach police said their view was obstructed by palms and shrubbery, so
they were unable to see that Conoscenti didn't have a weapon.[20]

14. Jose Luis Arambula

31 year old Hispanic male

Shot on June 2, 2014 by U.S. Border Patrol

Green Valley, Arizona

Agent Daniel Marquez was alerted to
Arambula's Jeep when it avoided a checkpoint on the freeway. Arambula led
Border Patrol agents on a 15-mile car chase on the highway and through a golf
course, ending in a neighboring pecan grove.
Arambula bailed out of his car and fled on foot, pursued by Agent
Marquez. Marquez later claimed he saw
Arambula do motions with his hands and feared he was going to draw a weapon, so
Agent Marquez shot at Arambula nine times, striking him once. Arambula did not
have a weapon, though he did have 500 pounds of marijuana in his car. Kellie Johnson, chief criminal deputy for
County Attorney Barbara LaWall, declared in September that a jury probably
would find Agent Marquez's actions justified. Arizona Daily Star writer Kimberly Matas described
the situation like this: "A U.S. Border Patrol agent who shot and killed
an unarmed and fleeing suspect in May has been cleared of any wrongdoing by the
Pima County Attorney’s Office."[21]

15. Jerry Dwight Brown

41 year old black male

Shot on July 1, 2014 by Pasco County
Sheriff’s Office

Zephyrhills, Florida

Brown was the target of a sting operation
into illegal prescription drug sales. Deputies bought a large amount of pills
from Brown while sitting in an undercover officer’s vehicle. A team of deputies
in gear, including Daniel Green and Clinton Cabbage, moved in to arrest
Brown. Brown attempted to get out of the
vehicle, then he reached his hand into his pocket. Brown was then shot by Cabbage and Green
because he would not show his hands. Brown
was unarmed. Sheriff Chris Nocco defended the killing for non-compliance,
saying “When they said 'Show me your hands,' the suspect should've showed us
his hands.”[22] In October, Pinellas-Pasco State Attorney
Bernie McCabe declared the actions of Deputy Green and Deputy Cabbage
justified.[23]

16. Frank Al Mendoza

54 year old Hispanic male

Shot on August 1, 2014 by Los Angeles
County Sheriff’s Department

Pico Rivera, California

Another misadventure from LA County
Sheriffs, Frank Al Mendoza was shot in another case of mistaken identity. Deputies came to Mendoza’s neighborhood to
serve a warrant to Cedric Oscar Ramirez, a 24 year old Hispanic male. Ramirez spotted
the deputies and fled as deputies tracked him down. Ramirez fired a shot at police from Mendoza’s
driveway, then broke into Mendoza's house. Deputies were pursuing Ramirez
through the house when they saw Mendoza in the doorway. One deputy shot Mendoza
twice, thinking he was Ramirez (i.e. this wasn't because of a stray bullet, and
the deputy didn't fire his weapon on accident.) Mendoza, who was much older and
bigger than Ramirez, died. Deputies
backed off and engaged in a standoff with Ramirez for 8 hours. Then a SWAT team
barged in and killed Ramirez as he was holding Mendoza's wife hostage.[24]

17. Jacorey Calhoun

23 year old black male

Shot on August 3, 2014 by Alameda County
Sheriff’s Office

Oakland, California

Calhoun had run from a traffic stop in
Oakland. After about an hour searching the neighborhood, Deputy Derek Thoms and
his K-9 unit found Calhoun hiding in a back yard. As Calhoun was being attacked by the K-9
unit, he reached for his waistband, making Deputy Thoms nervous. Thoms opened
fire on Calhoun, striking him at least seven times. Calhoun was unarmed.[25]

18. Manuel Flores

28 year old Hispanic male

Shot on August 4, 2014 by Bernalillo County
Sheriff’s Office

Albuquerque, New Mexico

The video of this incident is necessary and
mind boggling.[26] (Here’s
the Taiwanese Tomo News recreated version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlMclQUYYVk
: equally mindboggling for many reasons). A surveillance camera clearly shows
Flores ramming the driver’s side door of Deputy Rodriguez's vehicle at a fairly
high speed, then both vehicles come to a stop. A sheriff's spokesman at the time said that
Flores "got out of his vehicle with his hands up as if he was celebrating
and walked toward the deputy. The deputy feared for his life and fired two
rounds."[27]
The video clearly shows Flores getting out of the vehicle with his hands up and
was walking away from the Deputy Sam Rodriguez when he was shot. "BCSO’s release states that the man had
his hands up as if he were “celebrating.” But spokesman Aaron Williamson said
in a phone interview later that characterization was one investigator’s opinion
and wasn’t supposed to be released. He said the office doesn’t know why the man
had his hands up or exactly what he was doing."[28]
Generally if one's hands are up and one
doesn't have a weapon, that means “don’t shoot me”.

19. Misty Jean Holt-Singh

41 year old white female

Shot on July 16, 2014 by Stockton PD

Stockton, California

Misty Holt-Singh was a victim of at least
10 stray bullets fired by Stockton Police in their tragic attempt to stop a car
full of bank robbers from getting away.
There were six people in an SUV speeding away from the bank: Three bank robbers (Alex Martinez, Gilbert Renteria
Jr., Jaime Ramos) and three hostages including Misty Holt-Singh. Along the way
the bank robbers kicked out two of the hostages. Martinez and Renteria had an
AK-47 and shot at officers repeatedly. Officers were able to shoot out their
tires, and then a standoff commenced at the side of the road. After 34 officers
fired over 600 bullets, the officers eventually were able to shoot and kill
Martinez and Renteria, but they also accidentally killed Holt-Singh. Ramos lived. Holt-Singh’s family filed a
claim against the City of Stockton in February, 2015.[29]

20. Dillon Taylor

20 year old white and Hispanic male

Shot on August 11, 2014 by Salt Lake City
PD

Salt Lake City, Utah

Someone called 911 to report that Taylor
and his friends were flashing a gun and causing a scene at a 7-11. The caller mistook Taylor’s baggy pants and
youthful aggression for someone with a gun. Officer Bron Cruz arrived on the
scene. Body camera video showed Taylor lifting his shirt, and Cruz’s testimony
was that Taylor was reaching for something in his pants, but of course by this
time Cruz was fast-walking with a gun drawn toward Taylor. Taylor was shot twice and died in the 7-11
parking lot. District Attorney Sim Gill
deemed Officer Cruz's actions justified in October, when he also released the
body camera footage.[30]

21. Maria Fernanda Godinez

22 year old Hispanic female

Shot on August 19, 2014 by Orlando PD

Orlando, Florida

Godinez was out partying at Vixen Bar when
a fellow patron, Kody Roach, pulled out a gun and brandished it around. Bike
cop Eduardo Sanguino showed up on scene, along with two other officers. The
Vixen bar owners tried to kick Roach out, and the officers tried to order Roach
to get down on the ground in this crowded nightclub. One officer attempted to tase Roach, which
was ineffective. Afterwards something happened, and Officer Sanguino shot his
gun in the crowded nightclub nine times at Roach. Roach was injured but did not
die from the incident. But stray bullets from Sanguino's gun struck both a
fellow officer and Vixen patron Godinez. Godinez died. Roach's gun for what
it’s worth was unloaded the whole time.[31]

22. Bryce Dion

38 year old white male

Shot on August 27, 2014 by Omaha PD

Omaha, Nebraska

Another stray bullet killing, Bryce Dion
was an audio technician for the show “COPS”. During an armed robbery call,
Omaha police officers started firing at the robbery suspect, Cortez Washington,
who was pointing his Airsoft pistol at police. Though he was wearing a
bulletproof vest, Dion was shot by a single bullet and died. Washington also
died. The officers returned to duty two weeks later.[32]

23. Matthew Porraz

21 year old Hispanic male

Shot on September 16, 2014 by Fresno PD

Fresno, California

Porraz was a gang member and a suspect in
three murders. Police received a tip and tracked him down to his girlfriend’s
house. As officers arrived at the front door, Porraz attempted to escape out
the back window of the apartment. Then three plainclothes police officers fired
two rounds each at Porraz and killed him, saying they felt threatened. No
weapon was found, and no further justification was given for the shooting.[33]

24. Rafael Laureano

51 year old Hispanic male

Shot on September 29, 2014 by NYPD

Brooklyn, New York

A stray bullet killing, Laureano helped
police bust down the door to help save his girlfriend from her knife-wielding
ex-boyfriend Francisco Carvajal.
Laureano was inadvertently struck by one of the 18 bullets fired at
Carvajal and died. Carvajal also died in the incident. Carvajal and Laureano
were both body-builders.[34]

25. Michael Ricardo Minor

38 year old black male

Shot on October 23, 2014 by Prince George’s
County Sheriff’s Office

Suitland, Maryland

Minor had assaulted a woman, then left to
walk his dog. Deputies arrived while he was gone and spoke to the woman. The
woman told deputies that Minor had possibly retrieved a handgun before he left.
When Minor returned, he encountered Deputy Kendal Wade. Minor “made furtive
movements” with his hands during the encounter, so Deputy Wade shot him and
killed him. Minor was unarmed. In March
2015, a Prince George’s County grand jury declined to indict Deputy Wade. In
April Minor’s family filed a $10 million lawsuit against the county.[35]

26. Oscar Ramirez Jr.

28 year old Hispanic male

Shot on October 27, 2014 by Los Angeles
County Sheriff’s Department

Paramount, California

Sheriff’s deputies got word that there was
going to be a fight in the park by Paramount High School, and someone was
bringing a gun. When Deputy Byron Moreno
arrived, most of the people had left, but Moreno caught up to one of the guys
they thought might be a participant, Ramirez. While talking to Deputy Moreno,
Ramirez kept his right hand behind his back. Ramirez then made some kind of
move with his hand that spooked the deputy, so Deputy Moreno shot him and
killed him. Sheriff’s deputies searched for hours but were unable to find a gun
or a knife. The family is suing the Sheriff’s department.[36]

27. Aaron Forgash

38 year old white male

Shot on November 11, 2014 by Riverside
County Sheriff’s Department

Perris, California

Forgash attempted to use a fraudulent check
and fake ID at a Home Depot in Corona. Deputies caught up to him in his minivan
and attempted to pull him over, but Forgash led deputies on a chase that ended
in a residential neighborhood in Perris. Deputies Michael Heurer and Robert
Powe shot him as Forgash emerged from his minivan. According to a witness,
Forgash was empty-handed when he was shot by a motorcycle cop, though he made a
“twisting motion” with his upper body. The sheriff’s department has made no
effort to describe why Deputy Heurer and Deputy Powe shot Forgash, and they
returned to active duty a week later.[37]

28. Ramiro James Villegas (De La Rosa)

22 year old Hispanic male

Shot on November 13, 2014 by Bakersfield PD

Bakersfield, California

Villegas, who went by the name James De La
Rosa, was driving erratically on the freeway when officers attempted to pull
him over for a traffic stop. De La Rosa led officers on a short chase, but then
crashed into a signal pole on an exit ramp. De La Rosa got out of the car and
shouted obscenities at the officers, who crouched behind their cars with guns
drawn. According to police, De La Rosa then reached for his waistband and was
shot by three officers, Frank McIntyre, Valeria Robles and Edgar Aguilera. De
La Rosa was unarmed.[38]
In February 2015 a shooting review board found the incident fell within federal
and state guidelines. In April 2015, an officer was placed on leave for playing
with and “tickling” the toes of De La Rosa’s body at the hospital.[39]

29. Ricardo Avelar-Lara

57 year old Hispanic male

Shot on November 16, 2014 by Los Angeles
County Sheriff’s Department

East Los Angeles, California

Another victim of a stray bullet from LA
County Sheriff’s Department, Ricardo Avelar-Lara was standing behind Eduardo
Bermundez when Bermundez pointed his replica handgun at deputies in East Los
Angeles early one Sunday morning.
Deputies shot and killed both Bermundez and Avelar-Lara after pulling
Avelar-Lara’s vehicle over. [40]

30. Raymond Keith Martinez

51 year old white and Hispanic male

Shot on December 4, 2014 by West Monroe PD

West Monroe, Louisiana

Martinez was a homeless veteran known to
officers since he frequently panhandled in front of the store. He had made a threat to the store owner, so
the store owner called police. Security camera video was released in February
2015 showing Officer Jody LeDoux arriving on the scene, gun pointed at
Martinez. Martinez does not react at all to whatever LeDoux was saying. He
reached his hand down to a newspaper stand. LeDoux spotlit his arm with his
flashlight, and then a second later he shot him. The store owner later said he
saw a phone near Martinez after he had been shot.[41] LeDoux, who had a history of aggressive
policing, was indicted by a grand jury in January 2015. He faces trial starting
on May 19.[42]

31. Charles Gluchacki

65 year old white male

Shot on December 13, 2014 by Riverside
County Sheriff’s Department

Perris, California

Gluchacki busted down the door of a home
owned by Margaret Fouroux, a 90yo woman. It was raining and he said he came in
because he was cold. Fouroux called police, and Gluchacki fell asleep at the
kitchen table while they waited for deputies to arrive. When five deputies
arrived, guns drawn (Frederick Martinez, Peter Martin, Matthew Gardner, David
Chenal, and Brian Hughes), Gluchacki went to the door. He refused orders and
wouldn't take his hand out of his pocket, so deputies shot him. The Riverside
County Sheriff's Department has not issued a reason for why deputies shot him,
but Fouroux regrets calling the police.[43]

32. Henry Castroeno

48 year old Hispanic male

Shot on December 17, 2014 by San Antonio PD

San Antonio, Texas

Castroeno had run over a man at Taco
Cabana, killing him. Castroeno drove away from the scene. Officers Rodolfo
Lopez and Melissa Gallardo tracked Castroeno down to a nearby neighborhood.
When Lopez and Gallardo spotted Castroeno, they ran after him, taking different
paths around a house. As Castroeno ran away from Officer Lopez, Lopez fired his
weapon. Officer Gallardo didn’t see this but heard the gunshot and assumed it
came from Castroeno. When she encountered Castroeno, she shot at Castroeno
twice, killing him. Castroeno appeared to be unarmed.[44]

33. Jerame C. Reid

36 year old black male

Shot on December 30, 2014 by Bridgeton PD

Bridgeton, New Jersey

This is another incident where watching the
dashcam video is necessary in order to understand the situation.[45]
Reid was the passenger in a Jaguar. The driver coasted through a stop sign
while making a left turn, and Officers Braheme Days and Roger Worley pulled him
over. When asked to get his driver’s
license, either the driver or Reid opened the glove compartment just enough so
that Officer Days could see a silver handgun inside. Days freaked out and
cussed at everyone to show their fucking hands (similar to the Richard Ramirez
incident above). Then Days reached inside and grabbed the handgun out of the
glove compartment with his left hand while keeping his own gun in his right
hand pointed at the Jaguar's occupants. Reid was suspicious of this officer's
aggressive conduct and didn't comply with Days's frequent profane requests to
show Days his hands. He told Days "I'm getting out and getting on the
ground" three times, trying to open the car door, as Days pushed the door
closed and said "no you're not, no you're not!" Then Days jumped back and let Reid open the
door. Reid got two feet out of the car and raised up his hands in front of his
body as he stood up. The hands were visible to Officer Days as Days opened fire
five times (Worley also fired a single round once he heard Days shoot). Days
shot once more as Reid lay on the ground.

It is true that these people (the ones who didn’t get killed
by mistaken identity or stray bullets) could have avoided being shot if they
had complied with officers’ orders. But
it seems like police officers in these incidents also could have controlled the
situation a little better, by calming down, talking respectfully, not drawing a
gun as the weapon of first resort, etc.

Right now we live in a country where non-compliance with an
officer’s orders, especially for Hispanic males, can swiftly become a crime
punishable by the death penalty.

[34]
Parascandola, Rocco. “Man Who Tried Saving His Girlfriend From Knife-Wielding
Ex-Boyfriend Was Killed by Police Gunshot”. New York Daily News, October 1,
2014. http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/brooklyn/police-bullet-killed-guy-saving-girlfriend-cops-article-1.1960364