(Press-Register Illustration: Brian Lyman/Photo: The Birmingham News /Hal Yeager)Gene Chizik walks off the field after the game at Sanford Stadium Saturday November 14, 2009 at in Athens, Ga. Georgia won 31-24. AUBURN -- Gene Chizik asked us not to print it when he told a group of reporters
earlier this week, but his comments have since been made available for all the
world to see on the Auburn football review show.

So here it goes: Chizik said
Auburn would have absolutely, without question, gone for two to win the game had
the Tigers scored in the final seconds of regulation Saturday at Athens, Ga.

Of course, it's easier to say such things after the fact than it is to do so in
the moment. But decisions like that typically have to be considered in advance,
and there's no reason to doubt Chizik when he said he planned to go for the
victory.

"Just so you know it, if we score, we're going to go for two and win
that sucker," Chizik told his team in the locker room after the game. "Just so
you know how much I believe in who you are."

Going for two would have been a
bold call -- and the right one. Auburn's defense was beleaguered and the offense
was struggling. If Auburn was fortunate enough to make it 31-30, the Tigers
should have gone for the knockout blow.

The safer call would be taking the
extra point and playing for overtime, and the safer calls rarely get coaches in
trouble. It's when coaches take risks that they're most vulnerable to criticism.

Take Bill Belichick's decision in the final minutes of the New England
Patriots' loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Rather than punt, Belichick went for a
first down on fourth-and-2 from his 28 with about two minutes left in the game.
The pass play narrowly failed to gain a first down, and Peyton Manning and the
Colts drove for a game-winning touchdown.

Belichick's decision has been
debated, criticized and occasionally praised since the Sunday night game. There
have been all manner of serious analyses about what the decision means to the
psyche of his team.

But those made-for-TV debates are usually superficial at
best.

AdvancedNFLStats.com offered a much-quoted blog post saying that, in
reality, Belichick had the numbers on his side.

Given that a fourth-and-2
conversion carried a 60 percent chance of success, while the subsequent
offensive series by the Colts carried a 53 percent chance of a touchdown. Had
the Patriots punted (using an average net of 38 yards), the Colts' chance of a
touchdown would be 30 percent.

The Patriots' win probability under Belichick's
"gamble" was 79 percent; the win probability with a punt was 70 percent.

I'm
not sure what the odds were for Chizik's potential decision at the end of the
Georgia game.

I do know that if Auburn had scored a touchdown but failed on
the 2-point conversion, Chizik would have opened himself up to all sorts of
criticism.

But that doesn't mean the "safe" call would be the correct right
one, or even the safest one.(Contact Evan Woodbery at ewoodbery@press-register.com. His column appears Thursdays in SEC Extra.)