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It's not that I believe in the so called "pattern". It's that I don't think even a half year's worth of poor production measured up to a larger career means it's time to write him off.

Not too long ago everyone was wanting to trade Myers and Hedges off to the lowest bidder in response to current (at the time) cold streaks. I was merely using your sudden faith in Hedges to show that how they're playing now isn't always permanent.

Am I a little concerned? Sure... but part of that is also general cynicism about things never seeming to go our way, so that doesn't help.

But the bottom line is there's a reason he was able to sign the contract he did and I'm willing to give him more time.

And it does help that he's sucking it up in a season good production from him wouldn't have made much of a difference in the grand scheme of things anyway.

Comment

It's not that I believe in the so called "pattern". It's that I don't think even a half year's worth of poor production measured up to a larger career means it's time to write him off.

I'm not writing him off, of course. I'm just ill over the fact that a guy with multiple seasons under 1 WAR (this would be his third if it happens) now has $100M guaranteed and we are on the hook for that and the recent past is more indicative of future production than the distant past.

500 PAs isn't exactly a small sample size when a guy has a history of going entire seasons providing replacement level value.

Not too long ago everyone was wanting to trade Myers and Hedges off to the lowest bidder in response to current (at the time) cold streaks. I was merely using your sudden faith in Hedges to show that how they're playing now isn't always permanent.

Really, if we could get nothing in return except getting out from the contract, we probably should trade Myers. It's hard to write because his recent streak has my jonesing for him, but we've seen this with Myers before. If he can play 3rd, maybe it changes things, but he's a streaky guy with a history of getting hurt unless he plays 1st, which he now cannot.

I never wanted to trade Hedges. Catchers develop offensively later than most and at worst he is an outstanding backup. He didn't have three or four years of play to suggest he was always going to be terrible at bat.

Am I a little concerned? Sure... but part of that is also general cynicism about things never seeming to go our way, so that doesn't help.

And to be sure, that is in my head as well. I wasn't being totally alarmist so much as capturing a moment in time.

But the bottom line is there's a reason he was able to sign the contract he did and I'm willing to give him more time.

Yeah, but there was a reason it was down to us and the Royals, two teams taking a hard look at what the signing would do the their fan base. That worries me.

And it does help that he's sucking it up in a season good production from him wouldn't have made much of a difference in the grand scheme of things anyway.

Comment

I'm not writing him off, of course. I'm just ill over the fact that a guy with multiple seasons under 1 WAR (this would be his third if it happens) now has $100M guaranteed and we are on the hook for that

That sounds like an argument that could have been (and probably was) made before he took one at bat in San Diego, so it doesn't really tell me anything, good or bad, has changed.

and the recent past is more indicative of future production than the distant past.

Is it? Once upon a time Wil Myers and Austin Hedges struggling was more recent past, and the fact that they're hitting now and that that past wasn't indicative of how they're now hitting was the entirety of my point.

Really, if we could get nothing in return except getting out from the contract, we probably should trade Myers. It's hard to write because his recent streak has my jonesing for him, but we've seen this with Myers before. If he can play 3rd, maybe it changes things, but he's a streaky guy with a history of getting hurt unless he plays 1st, which he now cannot.

If you're going to seek to give away anyone who goes on cold streaks for nothing then you may as well prepare yourself for an eternity of disappointment wishing we trade everyone.

Precious few people can be Mike Trout. Most everyone else is going to go through periods of struggle.

I never wanted to trade Hedges. Catchers develop offensively later than most and at worst he is an outstanding backup. He didn't have three or four years of play to suggest he was always going to be terrible at bat.

You may not have, but plenty of others did and that's all that matters to my point.

Yeah, but there was a reason it was down to us and the Royals, two teams taking a hard look at what the signing would do the their fan base. That worries me.

A large part of that was because, as good as he's been, he's not Manny Machado, Clayton Kershaw, or Bryce Harper. And what do those three have in common?

We took advantage of an opportunity. But we have to take the cost that comes with it.

But none of that was the point. The point was, even with his weaknesses, he's still good and neither the Padres nor the Royals were looking to give that contract to someone who routinely hits like Hosmer has the past few months.