Skepticblog

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SkepticBlog is a collaboration among some of the most recognized names in promoting science, critical thinking, and skepticism. Regular bloggers include: Brian Dunning, Daniel Loxton, Donald Prothero, Mark Edward, Michael Shermer, and Steven Novella. This site is hosted by the Skeptics Society.

Proponents of theories and ideologies are always looking for that knockout punch – the smoking-gun evidence that proves their beliefs in a single stroke. Most theories are too complex to be established by a single piece of evidence, and require multiple independent lines of evidence to establish them. But there are often cases in which a single solid piece of evidence can push a theory over the line to general acceptance.

For many pseudosciences the lack of such smoking-gun evidence calls the claims into serious question. There are no artifacts from Atlantis. There is no bigfoot corpse or live specimen. And there are no crashed alien spaceships or, you know – aliens. Incidentally this is not the case for truly paranormal claims, like ghosts, because by being “paranormal” they would require a large set of rigorous evidence to establish a new phenomenon. But one actual bigfoot would do it.

So it is no surprise that from time to time we hear claims that “final proof” has finally come to light of one pseudoscientific claim or another. Just such a claim is now circulating regarding an FBI document from 1950 – a report regarding the recovery of three “flying saucers” in New Mexico. Here is the full text of the document, dated March 22, 1950:

“The following information was furnished to SA (redacted) by (redacted).”An investigator for the Air Forces stated that three so-called flying saucers had been recovered in New Mexico. They were described as being circular in shape with raised centers, approximately 50 feet in diameter. Each one was occupied by three bodies of human shape but only 3 feet tall, dressed in metallic cloth of a very fine texture. Each body was bandaged in a manner similar to the blackout suits used by speed flyers and test pilots.

“No further evaluation was attempted by SA (redacted) concerning the above.”

This is very provocative. To someone predisposed to believe in the Roswell incident and the whole government cover-up of recovered aliens, this might seem light smoking-gun evidence. But let’s break it down a bit.

The memo comes from the FBI vault (which seems legitimate, since only the government can have a .gov URL) and is made available through a freedom of information (FOI) request. Guy Hottel is described as in charge of the Washington field office. The memo seems like the routine reporting up the chain of information coming into the office. I searched on “Guy Hottel” on the vault site, but no other relevant documents came up.

The date of the memo places it three years after the Roswell incident in 1947. The Daily Mail reproduced the document claiming it as “proof” of aliens at Roswell (although Roswell is not mentioned by name in the memo). They also reproduced another document from the FBI, this one from 1947 which does reference Roswell, claiming that the sighting of a:

“disc is hexagonal in shape and was suspended from a balloon by cable.”

The memo author concluded that the object was a high altitude weather balloon, which fits with the current explanation that the crash at Roswell was in fact a spy balloon from Project Mogul.

The new memo, from three years later, must therefore refer to a separate incident. If the report can be believed, there were then three separate crashes of flying saucers all in the New Mexico area. Maybe the aliens were having problems with drunk flyers at the time. These alleged three further crashes did not appear to be witnessed, and once again there is no physical evidence to back up these claims.

Let’s also be clear about what the memo is – it’s hearsay. It is not a report from the investigator himself, and it contains scant details. It is little more than a rumor. The name of the informant was redacted, but it does not sound like the informant is the investigator himself. This memo seems like nothing more than the background noise of reports that any intelligence agency receives.

The body of the report is also very telling. The flying saucers are described as looking exactly like flying saucers looked from 1950s science fiction. This is the ship from Forbidden Planet. The aliens themselves are clothed in shimmering metallic fabric – again, right out of contemporary science fiction. This is three years after Roswell, and clearly the mythology had already evolved a bit. There was a rash of “flying saucer” reports at that time, and it’s no surprise that intelligence agencies were paying attention (especially in light of the growing cold war with the Soviet Union).

The final line of the report is also very telling – the SA did not feel that any further investigation was required. It certainly seems as if they did not take the report very seriously. This is the kind of report that we would expect to emerge from the pop culture of flying saucer fascination in 1950. It’s not the kind of report we would expect if there were a serious investigation into real alien encounters and cover-ups by the government. One might argue that the FBI were out of the loop (at least at the level of the Washington Field office), but that also would mean that this memo does not emerge from any privileged information or access and again is just rumor.

No matter how you slice it, this memo is nothing but rumor being passed routinely up the chain, without any indication that it was taken seriously. It reflects the popular culture of the time, and provides no real evidence or insight. This is not the smoking-gun that UFO enthusiasts have been hoping for.

It sounds like the author himself has some predisposed beliefs of his own. For one, the date is March 22nd, not 29th. The author is right in saying that it is not related to Roswell and there is a lot of bad information going around right now (like the Daily Mail) from people who have done little to no research. Although semi-unrelated, the military who was first on the scene first stated to the newspaper that they had found a flying saucer, only to retract the statement later. Explain that. But back to the topic, the final line does not say that the SA “did not feel that any further investigation was required” as the author stated, but that “no further evaluation was attempted.” It is not right to twist words for your own gain. Also, do more research; there is a lot more to be read in the “unexplained phenomenon” section mentioned above.

When reading these things it is better to keep an open mind than to have decided one way or the other beforehand.

You are correct – it is March 22, not 29 (now corrected). The documents is stamped March 29 at the bottom, and when I went back to it to check the date that is what I looked at and I did not notice the discrepancy. Honest mistake, which you have interpreted as a bias.

Regarding Roswell – this has been thoroughly picked over. A lone press secretary used the newly minted term “flying saucer” in a non-specific way, and this was corrected and clarified once the actual investigation was done. So that has been adequately explained.

Regarding the last line – we can reasonably infer that if no further investigation was attempted this implies the agent felt it was not required. How else would you interpret it. “This deserved further investigation, but I was just too lazy.”

When reading these things it is best to look at extraordinary claims with a critical eye and a dedication to logic and evidence, rather than a credulous desire to believe.

Your review on the case does sound kinda biased, you say we should look at extraordinary claims with dedication to logic and evidence, yet you yourself are IMPLYING that “not attempted” means “not required” to rationalize your argument, then you say that thinking otherwise leads to the opposite end of “if Hogle says that ‘not attempted’ ≠ ’not required’ then he means that ‘not attempted’ = ‘just too lazy’or how else would you interpret it?” which just tries to ridiculize a valid counter argument.

If we really are looking for the truth here, we cannot state that if A is not B then you can only interpret it as C, while there really can be a virtually infinite number of other explanations that would make sense, we just don’t know them.

It is true that this MAY and only may not be the “smoking gun” yet if we really are to come up with an unbiased opinion, we can also totally say that this document may, and only MAY be really something.

I personally don’t find this document enough to convince myself that there really was an alien spaceship crash, yet it is true that we should have an open mind when we hear of such things…

There is no evidence of anything here. There is a difference between being open minded and naive. To be a “smoking gun” it would have to present verifiable evidence to which the only reasonable explanation is aliens. Not even close…

The problem is that the FBI would never have released this document if it contained “verifiable evidence…” The skeptics really do have a problem with wrapping their brains around the idea that the government will hide what it deems essential to be hidden by whatever means necessary. Those means include muddying the waters by releasing all manner of half-truths and falsehoods. The very fact that they go to such lengths implies that there is more going on here than simple misidentifications.

Nice catch. Thanks for link. If the article is accurate, the “revelation” in the memo is something like 5th-hand information – originating from a “classic” swindle.

Wow, Newton and Gebauer – the original Quadro Tracker-style conmen. Well, at least they were just conning oil executives and wildcatters out of money, not directly endangering lives with fake bomb detectors.

I’d think most ufologists will be putting as much distance as they can between themselves and this memo.

The only thing even remotely interestig about this is that it was a memo directly from the SAC of the DC Office to the Director. I’m sure the FBI gets a lot of quack reports, but one would assume most of them are not forwarded to the boss. So I infer there was some sort of directive that anything relating to UFOs be forwarded to the Director’s ofice. Doesn’t mean they learned anything substantive, but it does show there was a genuine interest at some point.

OTOH, the fact that no further investigation was conducted implies to me that the interest wasn’t very deep.

I sure don’t believe in UFOs, but if one of my chums yelled: “Look a UFO!”… I’d look ;-) Investigating a remote possibility (yes there might be aliens, probes and all) doesn’t really give it credibility.

The columnist here has an intelligent take on this. He’s smart to notice the connection to science fiction films. There may be some other possibilities though–interesting to note that the bodies supposedly were “bandaged in a manner similar to the blackout suits used by speed flyers and test pilots”. There’s a theory, I forget where I read it, that some of the “UFO crashes” had to do with military tests, and that the bodies that seemed alien were in fact the shriveled, burned remains of human pilots, as certain kinds of burn victims can have a bulging head, pop eyed appearance, etc. Another possibility is that a disinformation program, to keep the Soviets from guessing about Mogul, and other projects, was promulgated, using flying saucer nonsense to create a smoke screen to protect classified programs. Those possibilities are more likely than crashed aliens.

But the “muddled hearsay” and mythology interpretation is probably the best explanation for this memo…

Hello. First, there was no mention of “… three separate crashes of flying saucers …” in the memo. It simply stated “… three so-called flying saucers had been recovered.” Next, to suggest “… the memo is … hearsay” is a peculiar way of framing the communications between governmental agencies.

The memo was sent to J. Edgar Hoover, director of the FBI in 1950. It should also be noted that the memo was sent to the FBI Director by a SAC (Special Agent in Charge), which is the head an FBI bureau – in this case, Washington, D.C., the FBI’s largest office.

Your constant use of “… it does not sound like … This memo seems …” is very revealing of how you yourself go about seriously researching topics. Especially when you write “Maybe the aliens were having problems with drunk flyers at the time.” You have a very ‘feely’ way of getting to the truth.

It’s also interesting how this same article appears throughout the internet on a multitude of websites. Is this what we could call ‘spamming’ an idea?

You write; “The final line of the report is also very telling – the SA did not feel that any further investigation was required.” First of all I find it difficult to believe you know what the SA ‘felt’ at the time of reporting the US Air Force investigator’s statements. And that you write, “It certainly seems as if they did not take the report very seriously”, well I can only once again point out the memo was written by a SAC and sent to the FBI’s Director.

I believe that if anyone were to be skeptical, it should be of articles such as yours which flood the internet like spam and ridicule people who ask questions about what’s happening in their world.

Karl – it’s called using logic to infer probability. When confronted with a claim, it’s useful to determine how likely it is -does it even make internal sense.

The memo is hearsay – just because it is written in an FBI memo doesn’t make it otherwise. In fact, when traced back it’s hearsay five times removed that leads back to con-artists trying to sell “alien technology”.

I wrote one blog article – that is not spamming or “flooding the internet.” Get a grip.

Turning off your thought processes is not just asking questions or being curious. Critical analysis is.

What I have never figured out is how these little guys can fly halfway across the Universe, avoiding such things as black holes, asteroid fields, planets and supernovas, only to get to earth and crash in a desert.

Yep, interstellar travelling can really stuff up a alien’s day when something does go wrong. It really goes to show how this supposed “alien technology” is probably not as infallible as we think. Heck! There may even be hope for us mere mortals of figuring out how this alien technology actually works and perhaps fix up a few teething problems ourselves for which the aliens haven’t thought far enough ahead to solve.

However, it does make me wonder one thing. With all this continuing talk of fake crashed disks, alien autopsies and the rest, I wonder whether the fundamental idea of something alien having crashed to earth could have occurred in reality (perhaps through the Roswell case) but those in the know are trying hard to keep the public entertained with hoaxes memos, reports, films and photographs in the hope people will never be able to get closer to the truth?

I mean, if ex-CIA agents, FBI memos, and more hoax movies and films keep coming to the attention of the public over the centuries to come and each time we find the hoax behind them, why continue the charade? Unless, of course, there is meant to be some truth to the matter and we just don’t know for sure.

Could a UFO crash have occurred at least once in the history of humankind and the USAF wants to put up these smokescreens by having fake this and that coming out into the public?

There are MANY other FBI Vault docs pertaining to UFO sightings- reports mostly from military personnel and while the ‘straw man’ argument of it not being proof of is sound, likewise it is not proving or disproving anything by debunking this single, context free document… Other than people are as desperate to believe as they are disbelieve.

Most people seem to be missing the point of this memo. Obviously nothing in the memo proves anything about whether or not a UFO crash occurred.

However, what the memo does prove is that the *story* was intact almost three decades prior to Stanton Friedman’s Roswell book and the testimony of Major Jesse Marcel.

For a long time skeptics have claimed that Roswell was a *modern myth* which was created by the pop culture phenomenon of X-Files, etc. and started with Stanton Friedman’s book and Jesse Marcel’s testimony.

However, here we have a memo which contains the same pop-culture myth *intact* decades prior to the public testimony of Major Marcel.

The now proven fact that stories that flying saucers crashed in New Mexico, replete with small humanoid bodies and the belief that they crashed because of radar interface, *PRE-DATES* the various Roswell books and pop-culture phenomenon by decades.

That is the significance of memo. Obviously it doesn’t prove anything about the reality of any alleged crashed flying saucers, what it does prove is that (contrary to what debunkers have been saying for a long time) the mythology of this story was not a purely modern incarnation.

In fact, it does lend support to the later testimony of various Roswell witnesses, such as Major Jesse Marcel and his son Dr. Jesse Marcel Junior.

It also absolutely corroborates the testimony of Apollo 14 astronaut Dr. Edgar Mitchell, seventh man to walk on the moon, who has stated repeatedly that the Roswell ‘story’ was well known around the community for decades prior to it’s public explosion in popular culture.

I don’t think anyone, skeptic or otherwise, has ever contended that there were no stories of UFO crashes, recovered technology, alien bodies, etc. prior to Friedman’s Marcel interview. Clearly, there were. There were even such stories relating to events which supposedly took place in New Mexico. But, crucially, they weren’t about the Roswell crash. The story this particular memo references was a con by Silas Newton and Newton GeBauer. See the article linked by Shane Brady in #6 above, or google “Newton and GeBauer” or “Aztec UFO scam”. The latter is because this crash supposedly took place in Aztec, NM, not Roswell.

Far from being forgotten by skeptics, the Aztec UFO scam has been discussed in relation to Roswell by a number of skeptics – see, for example, Carl Sagan’s discussion in “The Demon-Haunted World”, where I first learned about it.

There are a number of similarities, of course, between the Aztec scam and the Roswell stories of recovered alien bodies and technology – but the Aztec scam *PRE-DATES* the Roswell stories by decades. The fact is, after the initial report of a “flying saucer” being recovered near the Roswell AAF and its immediate retraction/correction by the Army, there was simply no discussion of Roswell in the ufological community until after Friedman’s 1978 interview with Marcel, and all references to alien bodies being recovered post-date that interview.

If there is a connection between the Aztec scam and Roswell, which seems most likely to you:

1) A pair of con artists somehow found out about contemporaneous beliefs about the recovery of alien bodies and technology at Roswell, beliefs which left no other recorded evidence until decades later, and incorporated those beliefs into an oil exploration scam, or

2) Decades after the Roswell incident (whatever it was) and the Aztec scam, elements of the latter influenced memories and accounts of the former?

Or perhaps some other option?

In any case, this memo does not prove the existence of a pop-culture myth about a ufo crash and alien bodies in New Mexico – it proves the existence of a scam by a pair of con artists which involved these themes.

This is an interesting decnstruction of the [supposed] FBI memo, which isn’t anything new — I first read about it years ago, though I don’t remember just when.

As a university teacher of writing, I am going to take a slightly nitpicking exception to one part of this story.

“An investigator for the Air Forces stated” etc. in the context it appears unlcear, more so than this article makes it. I can’t tell if the investigator is the informant, an informant, or not an informant at all, not from what’s in the memo as cited here.

As we all know, the biggest problem with the whole field of UFOlogy is the great numbers of conmen, charlatans, fraudsters, people of debatable mental balance, and the like. And when such a person gets caught out and exposed, it reflects negatively upon the entire field. Should it ever be the case that there is an actual sighting suggesting a UFO of alien origin — there are countless UFO’s of earthly origin; we just can’t identify them — then that report will automatically be met with suspicion, and understandably so.

I *personally* would be delighted if an alien spacecraft would land somewhere such as the Mall in Washington (or the White House lawn, if the craft is small enough!), or maybe any of several other possibilities, such as Tiananmen Square, Red Square, or maybe — hey, this would be a good one — at the Vatican. Preferably with the cameras rolling/flashing, audio recording on. Well – I’d like that IF the aliens were entirely benign and peaceful.

The Roswell incident contues to fascinate to considerable degree because of the initial official reports, which of course were quickly retracted. However, those insisting that aliens are among us (or some variation thereof) need to pause and reflect on this: Just how could the President go on television and announce aliens are here — and there’s not a damned thing we can do to STOP them, whatever their intentions?

Beyond the obvious defense concerns of that, there are also the questions regarding religion. Mucvh of the teachings of the three great monotheistic relgions, for example, would be washed away, and I suppose some followers of those faiths simply couldn’t handle that, which could lead to them breaking down, nervous breakdown, that is.

The “No further evaluation was attempted by SA (redacted) concerning the above.” part is very clearly understood if you read some of the other ufo related documents in the Vault. Especially any correspondence from Dir. Hoover himself.

Dir Hoover had taken a very clear stance about UFO investigation- TI was outside the jurisdiction of the FBI unless it involved a violation of law. So they would do the bare minimal- check that the people reporting had criminal records, or were involved in “subversive” organizations or had other mentions in Bufiles.

If that first glance showed nothing ” no further action is contemplated by this agency” and a report may or may not be shared with the Air Force.

If that first glance did show possibly subversive connections they would say so in a memo to the Air Force and art the end write ” no further action is expected by the FBI in this matter”.

Its a very specific and purposeful policy which looks like it was strictly enforced by Dir Hoover. The FBI handles criminal activity. Anything else was outside their jurisdiction and it was to be left alone.

Hi…
Nice post. UFO topic is becoming more and more contestable with the every single proof of its sighting claimed by different witnesses. The sighting of a disc like thing suspended by a balloon might be true. But it has nothing to do with the Aliens or UFOs. One thing more,why do we always attribute these strange object to Aliens?

You should get your decades “straight”. You said the clothing
was from “50s Science Fiction” and the ship from “Forbidden Planet”.
Roswell was 1947 and Forbidden Planet premiered in 1956 – so you’ve
got the “cart before the horse” concerning what inspired what. If
the rash of 50s movies, with saucers, was as little as 2 years earlier,
I would have no problem with your remarks, but to say that a 1947
event was inspired by FIFTIES Science Fiction is…, is…, well,
I don’t know what!

See below – that is not what I said. I said it was all consistent with the culture of the time. The reports and the movies were inspired by the typical images people of the time had of aliens and their spacecraft – it was already well-established science fiction.

I did not say that it came from the movie. I said it is consistent with contemporary science fiction, and I used Forbidden Planet as an example. But the flying saucer icon was already established prior to 1950.

Did you hear about Annie Jacobsen’s book on Area 51, where her anonymous source says the Roswell crash was a Soviet flying saucer designed by the Horten brothers, carrying deformed mutant children created by Joseph Mengele? Or was that a crappy B-movie?

The thing about all of this that always frustrates me, is that people always seem to fall on two destink sides of the fence. Skeptics who mock and poke fun and those with BLIND faith. The well known physicist Michio Kaku himself says that this subject deserves serious investigation. I see “roswell” as one piece of a puzzle that paints a picture of a possible one time encounter that happened some time during Summer 1947. If you take all of the pieces of the puzzle that start with sightings in Washington state in June 1947, it really does start to make some sence. All of those accounts are constant. They all (including Kenneth Arnold) describe vehicles that are a circle with a slightly flatened back end and a darkend bulge (like a bubble cockpit) in the middle. There is a 1947 photo from Tulsa OK that shows the same type of shape. The Memo could just be part of other memos writen about this event dating as far back as 1947. Now I don’t think that people from 20 light years away zoom back and forth to Earth at “Warp” speed to abduct people and probe them. But, if you take all of the BEST pieces of the 1947 puzzle, you could come up with something like this… A group of spacecraft from a near by star wandered through space for a Thousand years- the people in them long dead – entered our Solar System and flew around on some kind of auto pilot till they simply, all just crashed. We have that kind of technology now on Earth. No fancy propultion systems just disc shaped re-entry craft in the wrong solar system. All the other stories like live ET’s and such is just the “crap” that always gets added to the CORE STORY that, something very weird happened that 1947 summer.

Remember NASA has 5 unmaned spacecraft such as Voyagers 1 and 2 and some day they may crash into someone elses “Roswell”

What interests me is that none of u seem to be aware of Bill Coopers slant on aliens. Your all so invested in whether or not their real that uv missed what is possibly a more important observation.
Why is it that after years of denial an office like the FBI would suddenly release documents that they know will be inflamatory for scepts and blvrs alike. Step back for a brief moment. Youll see that the culture is saturated witn media pertaining to aliens. Tv movies and now official documentation by an office like the FBI. I dont question that their r extraordinary craft over my head, Ive had 3 sightings. I wouldnt profess to understand their origin however amazing or mundane.
But, what is interesting to me is not whether ufos r coming or going but why the major players want us to suddenly believe. A major arm of the most powerfull government in the world does nothing without a purpose.

I appreciate what skepticblog is trying to do. But it does so in such a smug manner.

I find most conspiracy theorists to be very thoughtful people. They just suffer from confirmation bias. But this site also presents it’s own view (however reasoned it may be) in an incredibly biased and smug manner.

Making fun of these people isn’t going to enlighten them. It’s only going to empower them.

I am a perfect example of someone who used to be a conspiracy theorist who is now a more reasoned thinker. All it took was a friendship with a grad student. My friend appreciated and recognized that I was a deep thinking, analytical individual but that I did not have the benefit of a formal education. He was a liberal, like me, but did not listen to Pacifica radio or watch MSNBC.

He respected that my mind was working, and working just fine, but it just needed a little guidance. His attitude made all the difference and my respect for him helped me “see the light.”

I am not sure who your audience is. If it’s people susceptible to conspiracy theories then making fun of them and being smug is not going to win over any fans. You should start every investigation from a neutral point of view.

Rather than setting out to debunk these theories, you should set out instead to find the truth, and let the debunking come at the conclusion of your research.

Perhaps to start the ball rolling in the right direction towards a more balanced and respectable debate on the subject (i.e. crashed disks and where this idea originated), how about a squiz at the latest scientific findings at http://www.sunrisepage.com/ concerning the Roswell case (the place where it all began). Let’s focus on one thing: the metallic foil. And let’s ask the following questions:

1. Is this foil a shape-memory alloy made of nickel and titanium?
2. Did the USAF have the knowledge and technology in 1947 to produce a 99.995 per cent pure (needed to reveal the shape-memory response) titanium-based alloy like NiTi to build a 9-meter diameter man-made flying object containing a significant amount of this alloy for its skin component?

If your research says, “Yes, it can be done”, then fine. On the basis of probability, the object has to be man-made.

But if the scientific literature says, “No, the equipment to manufacture this foil was not there in 1947″, then we may have something more interesting.

I suggest all skeptics should do a little more research to find out what the answer is. Because if they don’t, they might find themselves caught out and looking a bit out-dated and not properly thinking of all the evidence.