Jobless Claims in U.S. Probably Rose From Almost Three-Year Low

A job seeker fills out an application form at the Job Links Career Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Photographer: Jim R. Bounds/Bloomberg

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- First-time claims for jobless
benefits probably rose last week from an almost three-year low,
a pause in the improvement in the U.S. labor market, economists
said before a report today.

Initial applications for unemployment insurance climbed by
8,000 to 376,000 in the period ended March 5, according to the
median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The gain would be
the second in the past eight weeks. It would follow the previous
week’s level of 368,000 claims, which were the fewest since May
2008. Separate figures may show a wider trade deficit in January
on costlier imported oil.

The rebound in the world’s largest economy has limited
firings, paving the way for employers such as Boeing Co. and
Home Depot Inc. to add jobs and spur household spending. While
American companies ship more goods abroad, stronger domestic
demand and surging energy prices point to a bigger import bill,
curbing the contribution to growth from trade.

“Demand has improved and we’re now in a stage where
companies are starting to execute on hiring,” Russell Price, a
senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “The
improvement in the labor market is by far the biggest plus for
the economy. That’s what we really need to get self-sustaining
growth.”

The Labor Department figures are due at 8:30 a.m. Estimates
of 49 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 355,000 to
410,000. The report may also show the total number of people
getting unemployment insurance decreased.

Also at 8:30 a.m., the Commerce Department will issue trade
data. Economists project a $41.5 billion shortfall for January
after a $40.6 billion gap a month earlier. Estimates for the
deficit ranged from $46 billion to $39 billion.

On the Mend

Recent reports add to evidence the labor market is on the
mend. The jobless rate fell in February to 8.9 percent, the
lowest since April 2009 and the third straight monthly decline,
Labor Department figures showed last week. More seasonable
weather helped boost payrolls by 192,000, the most since May.

“We believe that we are in a continued positive economic
recovery that will lead to positive labor growth over the course
of the next couple of years,” Carl Camden, chief executive
officer at Troy, Michigan-based temporary staffing provider
Kelly Services Inc., said Feb. 24 at a conference in Boston.
“We see strength in U.S. conditions.”

Temporary Hiring

Companies taking on staff include Atlanta-based Home Depot.
The world’s largest home-improvement retailer in February said
it is hiring more than 60,000 temporary workers in the U.S., and
adding permanent employees for the second year in a row.

Boeing began “change incorporation” work on the 787
Dreamliner in San Antonio, Texas, where 450 employees will be
hired on a temporary basis to join 1,700 experienced workers at
the site to complete the work, the Chicago-based planemaker said
on March 7.

“We do see some grounds for optimism about the job market
over the next few quarters, including notable declines in the
unemployment rate in December and January, a drop in new claims
for unemployment insurance, and an improvement in firms’ hiring
plans,” Bernanke said March 1 during testimony before
lawmakers.

Limited Improvement

Still, the labor market “has improved only slowly,” and
it may take “several years” for the unemployment rate to reach
a “more normal level,” he said.

While stocks have gained this year amid signs employment is
picking up along with the economy, they’ve been restrained by
surging oil prices. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is down 0.5
percent so far this month.

The tax compromise reached by President Barack Obama and
congressional Republicans in December has resulted in bigger
paychecks that are helping support demand even as fuel costs
rise. Costlier oil, which this week reached a 29-month high in
New York, also will lead to higher imports. At the same time,
exports of American-made goods, aided by a weaker dollar and
expansion in developing economies like China, may help limit
growth in the trade deficit.