2014 New England Patriots: Roster Projection 3.0

Aaron Dobson won’t start the year on the PUP list.

NEPD Editor: Mike Loyko

Since the last roster projection six days ago the Patriots played their first pre-season game and decided to make a few roster moves. With three weeks remaining until rosters are cut down to 75 and ultimately 53, there is still time to make an impression on Bill Belichick.

But, the clock is ticking and now is the time where the “contenders” separate themselves from the “pretenders”. Heading into the second pre-season game here is how I see the current Patriots roster shaking out.

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks (3)

Tom Brady
Ryan Mallett
Jimmy Garoppolo

No change after the first pre-season game. Jimmy Garoppolo is trending in the right direction and while Ryan Mallet is inconsistent, his roster spot is rock solid.

Running Backs (3)
Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
James White

Stephen Houston was cut on Sunday after fumbling vs. the Redskins and not taking advantage of his opportunities in practice. Carrying only three backs isn’t ideal, but there isn’t another back in the roster worthy of a spot right now. A Ridley – Vereen – White combo gives the Patriots three quality backs with diverse skills to complement one another. Any other runner that makes the roster won’t see many carries with these three firmly entrenched in their roles.

Fullback/H-Back (1)
James Develin

Develin will be the equivilent of a utility player for the Patriots this season. The lack of depth at both Running Back and Tight End can be supplemented by the ever-improving Fullback. Develin can provide physicality as lead and inline blocker, can handle short yardage carries, and can even catch the ball. Develin was a bubble player at this time last year and now he looks like an integral part to this offense.

Tight End (2)
Rob Gronkowski
Michael Hoomanawanui

Ben Hartsock was added over the weekend and has a shot to make the final roster. I just can’t find a spot for him without cutting a drafted WR that will be lost to another team if cut. Hartsock is a terrific blocker and could be on the “Foxboro Shuttle” during the regular season. Justin Jones and Asa Watson were both cut after their underwhelming (to say the least) pre-season performance. It was clear neither player was going to contribute this season.

Many analysts have Josh Boyce on the roster bubble, but I don’t see him getting cut yet. If you look at the composition of this roster there is a gigantic hole at kick returner and that hole becomes much bigger if Boyce is released. Boyce will also immediately get claimed by another NFL team and possibly in the division (the Dolphins had Boyce’s name written down and ready to turn in before the Patriots picked him last year). Bill Belichick has been known to give his draft picks two seasons to show their worth before cutting ties and Boyce deserves more time. Aaron Dobson was back at practice and off PUP list which means he will be on the active roster and ready to play week one. That’s a big development.

Brian Tyms is suspended for the first four games of the season and that could help his chances of sticking around. The Patriots can stash him on Reserve/Suspended list for the first month and then get him on the practice squad when the roster choices are easier.

The same nine players from my last roster projection. The Patriots could keep only 8 offensive linemen if the rookies show enough promise in the preseason games and if they really want to get another Tight End on the roster. Hartsock’s blocking skills can negate the loss of another blocker. In that scenario Dan Connolly or Josh Kline is the odd man out.

Dominique Easley practiced in pads for the first time on Monday. Easley’s return means that he will not start the season on Non-Football Injury list and should be ready for week one. His return comes at the perfect time because the Defensive Tackle depth took a big hit over the last week. Sealver Siliga was lost to a hand/arm injury in Redskins’ joint practices and Chris Jones was lost to an ankle/knee injury. Jones dodged a huge bulllet as his injury looked pretty serious when he got rolled up on by Marcus Forston. Both players are expected to be back in the next month.

The position remains in a some what tenuous and unsettled state. After Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich there isn’t another roster lock, although Buchanan looks safe after Bill Belichick’s comments regarding his play. The number of defensive ends retained is dependent upon the versatility of the defensive tackles. Dominique Easley will definitely see time at defensive end and Chris Jones was lining up there in the first pre-season game. Will Smith is firmly on the bubble, but with some much raw, unproven talent it’d be nice to have a veteran pass rusher that can play multiple schemes.

A little bit of a shake up from my last roster projection. Darius Fleming made a good first impression during the Redskins game, especially versus the rum. Fleming is more versatile than some of the other back-up LB candidates because he’s experienced rushing the passer from his college days. Steve Beauharnais made some noticeable mistakes in pass defense and was slow to drop into his zones, but he did enough to hold his spot for now. If an injury occurs to an Inside Linebacker Beauharnais is the only player capable of playing major snaps. He needs to play better in these next three games to retain his spot. Chris White is the odd man out, but as one of the core Special Teams players it’s won’t be a surprise if he makes it.

No player helped themselves more than Malcolm Butler during the first pre-season game. Butler played great in coverage and wasn’t intimedated in his first NFL game. Butler looked like he belonged playing confident, physical, and broke up a number of plays. Butler currently has the inside track towards the 5th cornerback spot, not bad for an UDFA from West Alabama.

Safety (4)
Devin McCourty
Duron Harmon
Nate Ebner
Tavon Wilson

Safety remains the toughest position on the roster to project. Thus far nobody has stepped up and grabbed the starting Safety spot next to Devin McCourty. Duron Harom, Tavon Wilson, and Patrick Chung have all gotten reps and now rookie 6th round pick Jemea Thomas is practicing for the first time. Harmon’s spot on the roster is secure whether he’s starting or not. That leaves one or two spots (depending on the final breakdown) for Ebner, Wilson, Chung, and Thomas.

Ebner is a core Special Teams player, but so is Jemea Thomas. Thomas can also play both Safety and Cornerback, while Patrick Chung can play meaningful snaps. Tavon Wilson is on he roster as of now, but can easily be knocked off if Jemea Thomas shows flashes of the impact he made in college.

The only spot where there is competition is at Long Snapper and Danny Aiken played the meaningful snaps last Thursday. Tyler Ott will have to step his efforts up if he wants to unseat the incumbent snapper.

52 Responses to “2014 New England Patriots: Roster Projection 3.0”

i think Vellano isn’t going any where. i think Bolden is on the bubble but offers more of what Ridley has w/o the fumbles – something’s got to give if they’re keeping Finch as it appears they will & Jonas G sure looked good against eagles (can u say practice squad). Malcolm also looks like he’s staying. Also hope they keep Zach Moore.

Assuming Brady’s good health – so much is dependent upon Gronkowski’s play this year. He really puts the offense over the top in the passing, redzone and running game. With a much improved defense (again – assuming reasonably good health) this looks like a team that can beat Denver and either the Seahawks, 49ers and/or the Packers or Cardinals if they happen to get hot in Dec. Things are definitely looking up!

Just a note on Gronk – Bedard posted that he noticed a slight limp in Gronk’s stride, while Reiss said in response to a question about Bedard’s observation that he himself had not noticed one, but he was mostly focused on the OL.

I’ll clear the issue up. I went to the practice Monday, and was surprised to see that Gronk was favoring a knee. Slight, but definitely there. In my opinion, they should hold him out of as many games as possible and save him for the playoffs. Let the man heal.

Should have gotten Clark last year as soon as the whole Hernandez saga went down. Now, I’d say would be a season too much for him.
My guess is they are closely monitoring how Finley and Keller are coming along. The way things are going with the TE position, I expect to see one of them signed soon enough.

I agree about Dallas Clark last year, he seems like a great fit in the Patriots Offence. however not the blocker Bill may be looking for. Also if Zach Sudfeld is cut by the Jets, I think Bill picks him up. Still like Dallas Clark however!!

Last report I read about Sudfield was he was doing pretty well at Jets OTA’s awhile back. I’m sure Bill regrets loosing him and if given the chance might resign him. Still not holding my breath far to many teams ahead of us on the claims list that would to grab him up.

So is Maneri just an offensive lineman playing TE? He’s got a few catches in his career, but has been called a tackle as much as a TE. His 3-cone time was about 7.60, his 10-yard split not much and and his vertical leap was nothing much, so it doesn’t sound like he gets open very well. I guess we’ll see today how he runs routes. I like that he’s tall.

There are some interesting comments in there. Aside from the injuries, one problem seems to be he wasn’t a good scheme fit, as a 3-4 DE, as his strength in college was not necessarily plugging gaps and taking on double teams. He got by more on beating his guy off the snap and getting into the backfield. But, in the pros that’s not cutting it. However, they did say he was a reasonable run-stopper, and of course as a younger player he could develop. They say he has the physical talent, but lacks motivation, which was also true in college. So, it seems to be a case where if he gets healthy, and BB puts him into a better scheme, e.g. a 3-4 inside tackle, and then just lights a fire under him, maybe he develops into rotation-type DE.

I think Connolly is cut, and keep Wendell. Wendell has been an iron man, while Connolly has had numerous injuries. Connlly’s contract is much larger, and Bill will be looking for money to resign Revis. I also think Bill keeps just 5 LBers, knowing Ninkovich, or Buchanan can fill in if there is an injury. Zach Moore to the P-Squad keep Vellano. I think Chung brings more than Wilson at S/Spiecal teams.
Lastly I would not be surpised if Bill trades Arrington, for a draft pick, Houston / Oakland 2nd 2015?

I’ll be surprised if Vellano sticks unless we have another rash of injuries at DT. As for Windell after the poor year he had last season I wouldn’t even bet a coffee and donut on his sticking either. Knowing that only leaves Stork at OC we might see someone brought in to compete for that roll espically if Connelly is released as you suggest

We’re not just looking for a Center, we’re looking for an upgrade at Center that we can afford. What does that look like? A veteran all-pro cut by another club because he was too expensive…but he gives us a contender discount? Most of those guys left their old club in free agency and already have new gigs.

Doubtful Wilson or Chung goes. Wilson can do no wrong in BB’s eyes. He’ll keep Chung as long as he has one good arm and one good leg. Make that one good arm or one good leg.

BTW, Pittsburgh just signed Houston. I’m happy the kid will get another opportunity. I’ve never agreed with that, tear ém a new one and sit ém if they fumble philosophy. Taking your best back out of the game makes little to no sense right after you ignore a major screwup by your star qb; neither does embarrassing the player in front of the whole nation, especially when you as the coach made some boned headed calls in the same game. Yeah, I know, Houston was an unproven commodity who probably won’t make the practice squad. Just needed to vent.

Could not agree more. Last season in the end Blount together with the offensive line carried the team on their backs. They had simpatico. It was a beautiful thing to watch the two rumbling all over the field, bloodying noses and wearing defenses down. The reasons Blount gave for leaving didn’t ring true. I’d love to know the real reason why he left. Always thought Develin was underrated (as was Heath Evans) and they and the line should have had much more involvement in the offensive game plan. There’s a small man syndrome in play here but it won’t help to get into the psychology behind that.

A big back? I’m not holding my breath on that one. I remember the ’96 draft – “From Ohio State the New England Patriots take.. Terry Glenn.” They passed on fumble prone Eddie George. The hair on my head still hasn’t grown back.

I chuckle only because I feel the same way about how do we fit this guy or that. Right now we have half dozen young players that I’d like to see stick but no room to put them. It’s the curse of having a sucessful francise. We have a weakness in a spot here or there but other places just to much depth. Poor us, lol.

Ha ha, Steve, you’re so right. I’m already cutting Mallet and Wilson who are near locks (but I don’t think should be). You know Butler is going to stick, as well as Chung. Ebner most likely sticks. And they have all this depth at WR. Amendola, Edelman, Dobson, Thompkins are all locks I would say, as is Slater. But if Tyms keeps on showing up like he did last week, it will be tough to sneak him through waivers. They there’s Boyce, who I saw make a lot of catches when I visited practice Monday, and is only in his second year.

Getting Finch on board, providing he doesn’t fumble again, might depend on droping someone somewhere else or if someone gets injured. Not out of the question, think Amendola, sooner or later if history plays out.

So, raise your hand if you’re a Pats defensive tackle who is NOT coming off of injury. Anyone? Anyone?

Worthy and Bass are both questionable to start the season. My best theory for the timing of this move is that BB saw his young and healthy defensive tackles getting the injury bug and realized he needed more spare parts to field a rotation all season long. Both moves have risk but high upside. With all the different conditions of this group, it’s almost a certainty that the Pats can park a couple on IR for the first 6 weeks of the season.

At this point, the question is do they have enough camp bodies at DT to get through the preseason?

Apparently he had a great first exhibition game as a UFDA (4 tackles and a sack), so the Cowboys stopped playing him so they could sneak him through waivers. Weird.

“Two years ago, Bass was a little-known entity trying to make the club off a wing and a prayer. However, it was clear early that he was a much better player than what was seen of him at Texas A&M. Bass made an impression from his first pro game, a preseason tilt against Oakland.

– The Cowboys defense had two clear second half stars; Adrian Hamilton and Ben Bass. They were all over the backfield in the second half and continuously made life difficult for Pryor. Bass ended up with four tackles and a sack. Both players might have earned an opportunity to play against more than the oppositions third-teamers.”

Ben Bass had an outstanding Week One preseason game and Dallas has been trying to hide him in hopes of sneaking him onto the practice squad. The problem is, teams have already noticed him. Bryan Broaddus said yesterday that there were seven scouts he sat with at that Oakland game and most of them really liked what they saw; including teams that would make him a 4-3 DE.”

It worked, and Bass would improve his skillset to the point of being called up to the big club that November. He was on injured reserve less than a month later.”

So, injuries hit and he hasn’t played much. Still there are some nice quotes about him:

“Here’s what then-impending free agent Hatcher had to say about Bass.

“Bass has it all,” Cowboys starting defensive tackle Jason Hatcher said. “Bass is going to be the reason I’m playing on a different team next year. He’s coming on. He’s coming on. I just have to keep my job security, keep playing my butt off.” – DMN

That’s not exactly the way things went down, but it’s clear that Hatcher was impressed with Bass’ ability. It didn’t just start last summer, either. Here’s what Hatcher had to say about Bass prior to being called up to the 53-man roster in November 2012.

Jason Hatcher says Ben Bass ‘has been kicking you-know-what on the practice squad all year against our 1 offensive line.’

Hatcher went on to say that Ben Bass and Tyrone Crawford ‘are the future here. I’m just going to enjoy my time, play my butt off, while I’m here.’ – Ft. Worth Star-Telegram

Head coach Jason Garrett talked about his ascent from obscurity prior to that 2012 call up.

“Great example of guy, came in presented with an opportunity,” coach Jason Garrett said. “You try to draft guys as well as you can draft them, then you sign guys as well as you can sign them after and you think you know more about some than the other guys. We liked him, but from Day 1 he came in and showed us be belonged here in some way, shape or form.

“He really took advantage of the opportunities. He learned. He grew before our eyes and just made a lot of plays both defending the run and also rushing the passer. He’s the guy, kind of came from nowhere, certainly from obscurity and showed us he deserved to be on this football team.” – ESPN Dallas

“Blogging The Boys member and provided us with the following insight.

“Outstanding prep career at Plano West High School (saw him play a few games) and was in a recruiting “tug-of-war” between OU and A&M . . . went to Aggie-land and had a so-so career, hurt more by lack of talent on defense as much as anything. Has an NFL-ready body for a 3-4 DE at 6’4″ and 285, quick off the snap, needs to be coached up on recognition.””

Right Bob but Green was in a dog fight for a position and Butler and Thomas were showing strong competition for the spot in the backfield so it makes sense to trade a player from a position of depth for a player which is not as deep. My only concern about Bass is he’s coming off injury. Seems like half our team is in that boat.

I would see the only way that Belichick jettisons both Connolly and Wendell is if Stork can play and someone he didn’t expect to be cut from another team is cut and he quickly swoops in on. Talent wise, he’s much better than both veteran centers, but has dealt with a myriad of injuries since the start of his senior season.

Reports are that Pat’s have aquired Jaral Worthy DE from GB for conditional low round draft pick and DT Bass from Dallas trade for CB Green. Both Worthy and Bass have had injury problems last year. Hope this works out. Trading Green may give indecation Butler has leg up for 5th CB slot?

I would take Finch, Tyms, Butler and Jamea Thomas on the roster. I drop Mallet, Boyce, Tavon Wilson and Nate Ebner. Finch can handle return duties, Tyms has better height and hands than Boyce, Butler is too good to expose to the practice squad and Thomas can play safety and fill in on special teams, so he gets the nod over Tavon.

I think your right about Mallett. He just wouldn’t bring more then a low round conditional pick at this point. Only way I see him being traded is if some team loses it’s starter in regular season before the deadline and then only if that team is desperate enough to over pay for him. jmo.

Good news about Easley and Dobson suited up and practicing. Hope they are 100% or close to it. Both will be on the 53 barring injury. Not as clear with several others who have a chance like Tyms, Boyce, Finch, Bolden, Hartstock among the most prominate. We have seen only one game this preseason so making absolute pronouncements as to who sticks and who goes is just guess work best taken with a grain of salt. Mike has made good reasoned projections that make alot of sense still anything can happen between now and Sept 7th.

It’s a good list. Who of the 53 is on the bubble AFTER the cut down?
The Pats almost always make a move in the 2-3 days after cut down, or after the first week of the season when veteran salaries are no longer guaranteed. I could see them picking up a blocking or receiving TE at that point. I could see them grabbing a veteran running back. I could see them picking up a Savvy linebacker.

I am not getting Michael Buchanan. Was there any indication that he is capable of playing with more power and discipline? He wasn’t able to set the edge against Washington and it is not like he is a dominate pass rusher.

Very excited about Zach Moore. Played with power and seemed to be very versatile as he lined up at DE, DT and even played in a two-point stance.

Am I correct, Jake Bequette didn’t play a snap against Washington? Mike Reiss said that he was winning his battles in camp. Curious why he didn’t play.

Buchanan was always a solid pass rusher but did a poor job of setting the edge due to his lack of bulk and power.
If Jake Bequette was winning battles in camp, that makes you want to look into it more just for the sake of curiosity. After Jones and Ninkovich (who is an OLB playing DE), the DE position is very much a question mark and open season.

Pretty much agree with the roster projections. RB, TE and LB I see as positions that could potentially be “strengthened” after other teams make their final cuts. Pats need another power Rb besides Ridley and Develin isn’t gonna cut it there – he is a good blocker but not as good a ballcarrier. Maybe they go for Michael Bush if the RBs perform as badly in the 2nd preseason game as they did vs the ‘Skins. Lack of TE production behind Gronk and Hooman is legendary now, while they don’t have any insurance at the LB position besides Anderson (and one should also consider that Collins is still unproven and learning the ropes).

I think Chung may make the roster as a SS/ST. With that new-look defense, they could use a box-safety and he’s probably the only one on the current roster, who fits in that role.

It’s pretty much if’s and maybe’s at this point but I’m not as neg on Develin as you seem to be. I remember him last year doing pretty well when given the ball on short yardage plays. He fights for and moves forward in very determined way. No he isn’t a threat to break off big chunks but his flexability is a plus. I suspect he’s a better blocker then Michael Bush and he has shown the ability to catch from either in-line or from the backfield. I like his toughness and blue collar approach.

Not saying Develin can’t be used to carry the ball in certain situations, just that he is no full-time power RB and the Pats need another such player besides Ridley. Put in a diff way – Develin is a Ridley fumble away from being their starting power RB, unless Bolden somehow sticks around, which I am not too big a fan of either.
They just need another proper player at that position, imo.

Correct me if I’m wrong but wouldn’t James White be the guy to fill that roll? At least that’s the impression I’ve been getting from the reports from writers on the subject. If Develin is cut who fills the H-back /TE roll? I see Michael Bush as a pure RB. Bill would then be compelled to bring in another TE for depth anyway or risk having no depth at the position. It’s a darned if he does and darned if he doesn’t situation by your thinking as far as I can see.

White could have some carries there, just like Vereen does from time to time. Can’t see him as a workhorse of a power RB, though, as he lacks the size for that and would have to carry the load should Ridley ends up int he dog house again.

Why would you cut Develin? If you think that’s what I am suggesting, no I am not. All I am saying is they need two proper power RBs (Ridley and new guy) + 2 change of pace RBs (Vereen and White) and Develin playing multiple roles, including occasionally carrying the ball.

Just a question, can you put Tyms on the Practice squad during the suspension without release him?
I can see Jemea Thomas as a lock, he can play all the secondary and you can lose him on waivers.
I see Tavon Wilson released and maybe Chung on the roster.
With the thin depth at DE Jake Bequette will have a chance during the preseason but my bet is practice squad for him.

you don’t have to put Tyms on the practice squad. He’d be eligible for the Suspended list, juts like Browner, allowing him to train with the team yet not count towards the 53-men roster during those first 4 weeks of the reg season. When his suspension is over, they can decide whether to make room for him on the roster or cut him and place him on the practice squad, if he clears waivers.
I agree on Chung having a decent chance of making the roster.
I don’t think Bequette is eligible for the Practice squad. Unless there are injuries from now till start of the season, he’ll likely be cut.