Labour surges to seven-point lead

An opinion poll has given Labour a surprise seven-point lead over Tories, just a day after a different survey put the Conservatives four points ahead.

The new survey by TNS put Ed Miliband’s party on 35% (up two points compared to a similar poll a fortnight ago), against Conservatives on 28% (up one), Ukip on 18% (unchanged), Greens on 7% (down one) and Liberal Democrats trailing in fifth with 6% (unchanged).

The majority of polls over recent weeks have put the two main parties virtually neck and neck, including a YouGov survey for The Sun, which today put Labour on 34%, narrowly ahead of Conservatives on 33%, with Ukip on 15%, Greens on 7% and Lib Dems on 6%.

Westminster watchers will be waiting to see whether the TNS findings are backed up by subsequent surveys before judging if Mr Miliband’s assault on Tories over tax avoidance and evasion has given his party a decisive boost in the race to the May 7 general election.

The TNS poll found that Labour was the most-trusted party on healthcare, education and reducing unemployment, but found that Mr Miliband was trailing David Cameron badly on performance as leader, with a personal rating of minus-31 well behind the Prime Minister’s minus-3 and a little ahead of Lib Dem Nick Clegg on minus-36. Ukip’s Nigel Farage was the only party leader to score a positive personal rating, though even this dropped from plus-17 earlier this month to plus-5 now.

TNS director Jamie Willard said “Albeit just one poll, there is evidence that Labour have made some gains in recent weeks. However, arguably the bigger story is the continued resilience of the minority party vote share with fewer than 80 days until polling day. A loss of trust in traditional institutions combined with major social change – including economic growth without wage inflation – is resulting in a Britain in flux.”

:: TNS questioned 1,193 adults between February 12 and 16. YouGov questioned 1,548 people on February 16-17.