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Wednesday, June 22, 2016

WPR Articles June 16 — June 22

WPR Articles June 16 — June 22

There is a crackdown
underway in Iran, but not just on dissent. A fearful and reactive regime
is attempting to crush views that depart from the insular and rigid
worldview of a narrow band of hard-liners. But the base of the regime is
shrinking, as the gulf between the state and society widens.

One of the secondary
effects of the Orlando shooting has been to relaunch the debate on
whether public officials have misidentified the terrorist threat at home
by failing to call it “radical Islam” or “Islamic extremism.” Sometimes
the analytically precise is not the politically advisable.

Ecuadorean President
Rafael Correa defended his legacy last month and blamed the country’s
current recession on the perfect storm of falling oil prices and a
strengthening U.S. dollar. In an email interview, Diego Grijalva
discusses Ecuador’s economy in the wake of the commodities bust.

The perceived threat of
millions of immigrants from the western Balkans and Turkey, and the
status of Central Europeans living in the U.K., have become touchstone
issues in the British EU referendum. But little attention has been paid
the other way, to the impact of Brexit on Central and Eastern Europe.

Chinese President Xi
Jinping has a bone to pick with Taiwan’s new president, Tsai Ying-wen,
who won’t commit to the so-called one China principle. But Xi shouldn’t
apply too much pressure, as it will turn cross-strait relations into a
major headache when Beijing already faces many other pressing issues.

Since late May, a leader
of Cambodia’s opposition has remained in the party headquarters to avoid
arrest over charges the EU has condemned as “judicial harassment.” In
an email interview, Stuart White, an editor at the Phnom Penh Post,
discusses Cambodia’s current crackdown on the opposition.

Bilateral links between
the U.S. and Saudi Arabia have been one of the pillars of U.S. foreign
policy, underpinning the global geopolitical order since the waning days
of World War II. Although the relationship has come under enormous
strains in recent years, it is too soon to write its obituary.

The results of Mexico’s
local elections earlier this month represent a nadir for President
Enrique Pena Nieto and the dawn of his administration’s long exit. Pena
Nieto’s party lost seven of Mexico’s 12 gubernatorial races—a massive
setback that also exposes a systemic flaw in Mexican democracy.

With international sanctions against Iran lifted, India is keen to
get ties with Tehran back to their pre-sanctions level. India is
looking to Iran to help in its transition to a natural gas-driven
economy and betting on Iran to be its gateway into markets in Central
Asia, skirting Pakistan and China.

Next week, the Permanent
Council of the Organization of American States will meet to discuss
Venezuela, a country in the throes of an economic, political and
humanitarian crisis. But how and why did the democratically elected
member governments of the OAS stand by and watch this downward spiral?

In this week’s Trend
Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, and host Peter
Dörrie discuss political violence and terrorism in the U.S., France and
Africa in the wake of the Orlando shooting. For the Report, Jonathan
Rosen joins us to talk about Ethiopia’s push toward industrialization.

There have been attempts
to negotiate an end to the Afghanistan war for several years, but the
Taliban has refused to participate. This in part reflects the U.S.
military’s emphasis on decisive victory. The U.S. needs a new approach
focused on compelling the Taliban to accept a sustainable settlement.

During his U.S. visit,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed to formally ratifying the
Paris climate change agreement by the end of 2016. In an email
interview, Neil Bhatiya, climate and diplomacy fellow at the Center for
Climate and Security, discusses India’s response to climate change.

Gruesome attacks on
bloggers in Bangladesh have shocked the country and the world. But they
are only one element in a years-long cycle of mounting violence.
Large-scale political repression has created a climate of injustice that
extremist groups have exploited against secularists and liberal
thinkers.

The European Commission
announced a plan earlier this month to provide African and Middle
Eastern governments with positive and negative economic incentives to
assist in curbing migrant and refugee flows to Europe. Many have raised
questions about the policy’s efficacy and ramifications for human
rights.

China is becoming a
military player in Africa, where it has bolstered U.N. operations, is
opening a naval station in Djibouti, and has pledged support for AU
peace operations. Is this evidence of Beijing’s bid for superpower
status, or a sign that it is can contribute more to global stability?

When Vladimir Putin
travels to Beijing in late June, he can rightfully take some
satisfaction in his relations with his host. But as Russia develops
closer economic, security and diplomatic ties with China, Moscow should
be wary of Beijing’s ability to exploit Russia’s increasing dependence
on China.

In a defiant speech to
Syria’s parliament earlier this month, President Bashar al-Assad struck a
different chord from his last national address, in July 2015, when he
admitted to military setbacks. It made clear how the regime’s fortunes
have shifted in the last year, thanks to Russia’s intervention.

The notion that Hillary
Clinton is more hawkish than Barack Obama ignores the fact that campaign
rhetoric does not compare to the rhetoric of governing, and is another
reminder of the collective amnesia that afflicts political observers
when it comes to Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign.