I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base. Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good". Sure enough, he was out until early August. When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention. Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities. There was neither to be had for him. He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012. Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him. Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew. This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on. Good stuff.

The deal for Hanrahan was alo made with the possibility that, if the season unfolds poorly, Hanrahan, and not Bailey, is the reliever moved in July. He is a free agent after 2013 anyway, and there are always one or two teams looking for closers in July, and EVERYONE who still thinks they are in it is shopping for releivers...

In response to hill55's comment:I would be surprised if the Mariners were not interested if the Sox were willing to take back Franklin Gutierrez ($7.13mill) as part of the deal.

In the last 2 seasons, gutierrez has only played 132 games and has a .596OPS. The real problem here is - would the Sox want Gutierrez?

I would not be surprised if the Mariners tried to trade Franklin Gutierrez to address a specfic need, such as a trade for Dodger lefthander Chris Capuano, whose contract matches up almost perfectly with that of Gutrierrez.

That proposal by Seattle Times columnist Geoff Baker has been met with some approval on a Dodger forum.

In response to hill55's comment:
I would be surprised if the Mariners were not interested if the Sox were willing to take back Franklin Gutierrez ($7.13mill) as part of the deal.

In the last 2 seasons, gutierrez has only played 132 games and has a .596OPS. The real problem here is - would the Sox want Gutierrez?

I would not be surprised if the Mariners tried to trade Franklin Gutierrez to address a specfic need, such as a trade for Dodger lefthander Chris Capuano, whose contract matches up almost perfectly with that of Gutrierrez.

That proposal by Seattle Times columnist Geoff Baker has been met with some approval on a Dodger forum.

Except that that deal does nothing for the Dodgers, who already have a loaded outfield with Crawford, Kemp and Ethier.

And Capuano has been valued at 3.7WAR over the alst 2 years per Fangraphs, while Gutierrez has only accumulated 1.0WAR over that same stretch. Contracts match up more than performance. That deal is nothing mroe than journalistic speculation that has also been met with some opposition from Dodger fanbase, particularly on MLBTR.

The Dodgers are far more likely to need Capuano than they will have a need for Gutierrez. What with Billinglsey and Lilly coming off injuries and with Ryu being a total question mark, and with pitching being an overall bigger injury risk than outfield during Spring Training games...

In response to notin's comment: Except that that deal does nothing for the
Dodgers, who already have a loaded outfield with Crawford, Kemp and Ethier.

And Capuano has been valued at 3.7WAR over the alst 2 years per Fangraphs, while Gutierrez has only accumulated 1.0WAR over that same stretch. Contracts match up more than performance. That deal is nothing mroe than journalistic speculation that has also been met with some opposition from Dodger fanbase, particularly on MLBTR.

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

Indeed it would be unlike the Seattle Mariners to trade-low on Gutierrez and trade-high on Chris Capuano.

Except that that deal does nothing for the Dodgers, who already have a loaded outfield with Crawford, Kemp and Ethier.

And Capuano has been valued at 3.7WAR over the alst 2 years per Fangraphs, while Gutierrez has only accumulated 1.0WAR over that same stretch. Contracts match up more than performance. That deal is nothing mroe than journalistic speculation that has also been met with some opposition from Dodger fanbase, particularly on MLBTR.

Indeed it would be unlike the Seattle Mariners to trade-low on Franklin Gutierrez and trade-high on Chris Capuano.

Well, I belive the phrase "trading low" is frequently misused. You are only trading low if the player bounces back after the deal. Otherwise, someone is just getting what they paid for.

The real question with someone like Gutierrez is - is there anything left in the tank to make him useful anywhere else? His track record against LHP is somewhat moot if he never gets off the DL. Ad really, his carer numbers are somewhat influenced by a past that is no longer relevant. If anything, Gutierrez has shown to be all over the place against LHP recently. His 1.160OPS vs. LHP in a small sample size last season is somewhat offset by his .561OPS against LHP in the same sample size in 2011.

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite. And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Still too many uncertainties to give away Bailey, unless its part of a bigger deal to improve the rotation or outfield. Koji's age (recall how quick Oki lost it), Tazawa has to repeat last year's success, Aceves may not like his roll and flip out, Bard must find his head not too mention velocity and the strikezone, JH had some control issues in'12, etc. Wait until July to see how things play out. I would not be at all surprised to see Bailey as a key contributor down the stretch in Boston.

If the Sox are rebuilding, then his trade value is important and it makes sense to hold him and see what happens. But if they can get a player they want to day, the Reddick deal is completely immaterial and "trade value" is no reason to hold him with hoipes something better comes along...

If??

I think the huge trade last year combined with the new short term contracts is a pretty clear indication that they are in rebuilding mode.

No playoff wins in 4 years and a last place finish will typically have that effect.

[/QUOTE]

They are still trying to field a competitve team while building for the future, as evidenced by every move you highlighted. The free agents were short term deals, but not one year deals.

Go see the moves Epsteiis making in Chicago to see a pure rebuild. Even the free agents are sih ned with clear intent to flip them for prospects in July. ..

The real question with someone like Gutierrez is - is there anything left in the tank to make him useful anywhere else? His track record against LHP is somewhat moot if he never gets off the DL. Ad really, his carer numbers are somewhat influenced by a past that is no longer relevant. If anything, Gutierrez has shown to be all over the place against LHP recently. His 1.160OPS vs. LHP in a small sample size last season is somewhat offset by his .561 OPS against LHP in the same sample size in 2011.

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite. And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

With the bullpen very deep, especially if Bard can bounce back, it seems like Andrew Bailey is the odd man out. They've already named Hanrahan the closer, and their are several guys who can be the so-called "set-up guy". (Tazawa, Bard, Aceves, Breslow, Uehara, De La Rosa, Wilson). Bailey has only been a closer, and
their must be teams that he would be an upgrade over what they already have. (The Tigers, Angels,
Mariners& Marlins
immediately come to mind) He is still under team control. So what could we expect him to bring in a trade?

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Heck dude could you be any more morbid... such a downer. I am gonna call pike to issue a warning to you.

Ench,

What is so morbid about his post. He's just giving us a therough assessment of the two bullpens and his honest point of view.

Hetch

Booooooooooooooooooooo ! Hill55 kills any idea with stats time after time. Boooooooo! Morbid!

The real question with someone like Gutierrez is - is there anything left in the tank to make him useful anywhere else? His track record against LHP is somewhat moot if he never gets off the DL. Ad really, his carer numbers are somewhat influenced by a past that is no longer relevant. If anything, Gutierrez has shown to be all over the place against LHP recently. His 1.160OPS vs. LHP in a small sample size last season is somewhat offset by his .561 OPS against LHP in the same sample size in 2011.

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite. And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

So you are saying that teams will want Franklin Gutierrez based on a career numbers but Andy Bailey is untradable based on last year. Got it...

I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base. Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good". Sure enough, he was out until early August. When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention. Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities. There was neither to be had for him. He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012. Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him. Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew. This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on. Good stuff.

The deal for Hanrahan was alo made with the possibility that, if the season unfolds poorly, Hanrahan, and not Bailey, is the reliever moved in July. He is a free agent after 2013 anyway, and there are always one or two teams looking for closers in July, and EVERYONE who still thinks they are in it is shopping for releivers...

As such (a FA after 2013), I doubt we would get much for Hanrahan anyway in July.

I was at the game in Bradenton last spring against the Pirates when Bailey hurt himself covering first base. Knowing he was the Sox projected closer, I immeadiately thought "this isn't good". Sure enough, he was out until early August. When he did come back, the Sox were a mess and out of any contention. Closer's thrive on adrenaline and save opportunities. There was neither to be had for him. He came here as a proven closer but it just didn't happen for him in 2012. Then the Sox saw a deal for Hanrahan because the Pirates weren't going to be able to afford him. Appparently they liked Joel better than Andrew. This doesn't mean that Bailey can't close games any more or doesn't have trade value.

On a side note, I'm glad that I could start a thread that my vote for top 3 posters of the year (Notin, Moon, & Drewski) all commented on. Good stuff.

The deal for Hanrahan was alo made with the possibility that, if the season unfolds poorly, Hanrahan, and not Bailey, is the reliever moved in July. He is a free agent after 2013 anyway, and there are always one or two teams looking for closers in July, and EVERYONE who still thinks they are in it is shopping for releivers...

As such (a FA after 2013), I doubt we would get much for Hanrahan anyway in July.

I think the opposite is true. The days of closers getting long term deals seem to have ended with Papelbon, at least for now. If Hanrahan is pitching lights out and the Sox are still out of contention, he may have even more value than he would if he had a 3/30 type deal. I don't think anyone would take on the Papelbon contract outside of maybe L.A. right now. Closers (relievers in general) are just too unpredictable from year to year, but if you can get a guy who is having a great season at the deadline, and you think he could be the difference, you might be willing to sacrifice a little more.

The real question with someone like Gutierrez is - is there anything left in the tank to make him useful anywhere else? His track record against LHP is somewhat moot if he never gets off the DL. Ad really, his carer numbers are somewhat influenced by a past that is no longer relevant. If anything, Gutierrez has shown to be all over the place against LHP recently. His 1.160OPS vs. LHP in a small sample size last season is somewhat offset by his .561 OPS against LHP in the same sample size in 2011.

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite. And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

So you are saying that teams will want Franklin Gutierrez based on a career numbers but Andy Bailey is untradable based on last year. Got it...

Neither Andrew Bailey nor Franklin Gutierrez would be easy to trade given the injury history and contract status of each player.

With the bullpen very deep, especially if Bard can bounce back, it seems like Andrew Bailey is the odd man out. They've already named Hanrahan the closer, and their are several guys who can be the so-called "set-up guy". (Tazawa, Bard, Aceves, Breslow, Uehara, De La Rosa, Wilson). Bailey has only been a closer, and
their must be teams that he would be an upgrade over what they already have. (The Tigers, Angels,
Mariners& Marlins
immediately come to mind) He is still under team control. So what could we expect him to bring in a trade?

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen. He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger. He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension. Get real.

With the bullpen very deep, especially if Bard can bounce back, it seems like Andrew Bailey is the odd man out. They've already named Hanrahan the closer, and their are several guys who can be the so-called "set-up guy". (Tazawa, Bard, Aceves, Breslow, Uehara, De La Rosa, Wilson). Bailey has only been a closer, and
their must be teams that he would be an upgrade over what they already have. (The Tigers, Angels,
Mariners& Marlins
immediately come to mind) He is still under team control. So what could we expect him to bring in a trade?

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen. He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger. He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension. Get real.

It's five years of Tom Wilhelmsen, two at the league minimum salary, versus two years of Andrew Bailey building off a 2013 salary of $4.1 million. Only once, way back in 2009, did Bailey exceed Wilhelmsen's 2012 WAR of 1.5.

With the bullpen very deep, especially if Bard can bounce back, it seems like Andrew Bailey is the odd man out. They've already named Hanrahan the closer, and their are several guys who can be the so-called "set-up guy". (Tazawa, Bard, Aceves, Breslow, Uehara, De La Rosa, Wilson). Bailey has only been a closer, and
their must be teams that he would be an upgrade over what they already have. (The Tigers, Angels,
Mariners& Marlins
immediately come to mind) He is still under team control. So what could we expect him to bring in a trade?

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen. He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger. He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension. Get real.

It's five years of Tom Wilhelmsen, two at the league minimum salary, versus two years of Andrew Bailey building off a 2013 salary of $4.1 million. Only once, way back in 2009, did Bailey exceed Wilhelmsen's 2012 WAR of 1.5.

That's the reality.

That is assuming the career of Tom Wilhelmson will even last 5 more years. He is not exactly a bastion of stability. Aaron Small still has years of control left and a small salary too. And yet his phone never rang either...

With the bullpen very deep, especially if Bard can bounce back, it seems like Andrew Bailey is the odd man out. They've already named Hanrahan the closer, and their are several guys who can be the so-called "set-up guy". (Tazawa, Bard, Aceves, Breslow, Uehara, De La Rosa, Wilson). Bailey has only been a closer, and
their must be teams that he would be an upgrade over what they already have. (The Tigers, Angels,
Mariners& Marlins
immediately come to mind) He is still under team control. So what could we expect him to bring in a trade?

At the league minimum salary, Seattle has closer Tom Wilhelmsen who last season posted a ERA of 2.50, a WHIP of 1.11 and K/9 of 9.9 in 79.1 innings. The tall righthander held opponents to a .202/.277/.301/.578 line. The Mariners, who have closers-in-waiting in Stephen Pryor and Carter Capps, could fetch a better return for Wilhelmsen than the Red Sox could land for Andrew Bailey.

The Mariners would have no interest in an injury-prone reliever with a 2013 salary of $4.1 million ... few teams would want Andrew Bailey at that price.

I would not trade the deep Mariner bullpen for the Red Sox bullpen.

Nobody wants Tom Wilhelmsen. He had 80 good innings, but was shelled at AA in 2011, facing batters seven years younger. He's the same age as Bailey, and Bailey has been much better for much longer - 15 bad innings in 2012 does not erase the fact that he was pitching all-star games while Wilhemlsen was bar-tending and serving a drug suspension. Get real.

It's five years of Tom Wilhelmsen, two at the league minimum salary, versus two years of Andrew Bailey building off a 2013 salary of $4.1 million. Only once, way back in 2009, did Bailey exceed Wilhelmsen's 2012 WAR of 1.5.

That's the reality.

That is assuming the career of Tom Wilhelmson will even last 5 more years. He is not exactly a bastion of stability. Aaron Small still has years of control left and a small salary too. And yet his phone never rang either...

The real question with someone like Gutierrez is - is there anything left in the tank to make him useful anywhere else? His track record against LHP is somewhat moot if he never gets off the DL. Ad really, his carer numbers are somewhat influenced by a past that is no longer relevant. If anything, Gutierrez has shown to be all over the place against LHP recently. His 1.160OPS vs. LHP in a small sample size last season is somewhat offset by his .561 OPS against LHP in the same sample size in 2011.

If the Mariners can find anyone to take him at this point, they should probably bite. And I doubt sny deal fills a need for them, or at least I doubt it fills one very well...

Andre Ethier has posted a career .238/.296/.352/.649 line against lefthanded pitching while Franklin Gutierrez has posted a career .293/.351/.479/.830 line against southpaws.

So you are saying that teams will want Franklin Gutierrez based on a career numbers but Andy Bailey is untradable based on last year. Got it...