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Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

What's a fair guess/comp for Choo for his next contract? $12 mill a year?

Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?

I know the Reds pulled some rabbits out of their hat in recent years with extensions etc but I just don't see the team having the bank to keep Choo around. Not without trading off a high priced salary somewhere else on the team.

What's a fair guess/comp for Choo for his next contract? $12 mill a year?

Swisher got 4 at $56. Is that a more reasonable guess?

I know the Reds pulled some rabbits out of their hat in recent years with extensions etc but I just don't see the team having the bank to keep Choo around. Not without trading off a high priced salary somewhere else on the team.

Just when I think this team doesn't have money to sign the guys they want, they do. I dont worry about financials at all. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they managed to sign Choo to a 3-5 year deal.

Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey

I would love to be wrong, but Choo is not as good as most here are making him out to be. He's pretty good. Throwing around terms like "one of the best offensive players in baseball" and "he's a guy you can build a team around" are extreme exaggerations IMO. I'm concerned that his numbers have tailed off the last two years.

Glad the Reds have him, but I'm taken aback a bit by all the comments about his perceived greatness. I hope some of you aren't setting yourself up for disappointment. Choo is a lot closer to "good" than "great."

Then again, that's one heck of an upgrade from Drew Stubbs so I DO understand the excitement to some degree.

It depends on how big your list is for the best players in baseball. If we're talking top 10, no. I'd say he's roughly somewhere in the range of 50th to 75th most valuable player (including pitchers) in the major leagues and that he's more valuable than all of our offensive players except Votto, although you could make an argument for Phillips. Evidence:

Of all the outfielders with at least 1000 plate appearances over the last 3 years, he is #12 in RC27.

Considering that by my count, there are 90 starting outfielders playing in the major leagues at any given time, that puts him in the 86th offensive percentile, which makes him very good. Conservatively, it makes him just about a top 100 player. But because of his good defense (or perhaps, better stated, the subpar defense of some of many of the guys who hit better than he does), I'd rank him in the top 75 for sure.

Here is the list of the 12 outfielders who have hit better than Choo over the last 3 years (as measured by RC27), followed by the 16 who hit better than him last year. By the way, I agree with the person who said that Swisher was a good comp for the type of contract Choo could have expected if he had hit free agency this offseason. Their RC27 is nearly the same (Swisher a smidge higher) both last year and over the last 3 years. However, Swisher is a couple years older.

Outfielders who have been better offensive players than Choo over last 3 seasons (with at least 1000 total PAs)

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Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

Just noticed too (sorry if this was mentioned already) that MLBTraderumors shows Choo as the #6 free agent going into 2014. Plus, four of the five guys ahead of him could see their stock drop below Choo if their recent injuries flare up again.

Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

Honesty, we need a bat like 2012 Ludwick batting cleanup. I don't expect Frasier to be able to do that (although he is a nice player).

While we also need a leadoff hitter, we have Hamilton coming up, which makes it less urgent to sign Choo after this year.

I just find it hard to believe that Ludwick is going to make 7 million to be a 4th OF. He'd have to be traded if the Reds extended Choo. I think Choo is going to get 15 million/year or more from someone this offseason, and it won't be the Reds.

Extending Choo is a longshot, because unless Bruce or Ludwick suffer a career threatening injury, it just doesn't make sense. The money wil likely go to arbitration guys.
Heck, if Bronson has another good year, and is willing to come back on a short term contract after 2013, a case could be made that he adds more bang for the buck than extending Choo in our already full OF.

Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy -- it was nice while it lasted..

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: Choo long-term? Might be a possibility...

He's two years younger than Swish; I bet he gets 6 years, which is too much for the Reds IMO. They've got plenty of time to decide, of course, but I'd say if Ludwick performs anywhere close to last season's results, they'll stick with him in left and plan to replace him in 2015.

"I never argue with people who say baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn't. And that's what makes it great." - Joe Posnanski

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