College Football: FBS Top 128 Power Rankings – Big 12 and SEC Dominate Top of Week 3 Rankings

Oklahoma, one of the two main contenders in the Big 12, knocked off SEC opponent Tennessee 34-10 on Saturday. (Adam Lau/Knoxville News-Sentinel)

Before we start looking at how this week’s rankings have shaken out, it must be noted that there have been some slight changes to the formula used to sort out the 128 FBS teams each week. Instead of using each team’s Sagarin rating from week to week, we will now be adjusting them to fit the most recent computer data available. This way it will offer a better look at the real strength of an opponent, negating preseason biases that can tend to overrate one team at the expense of another.

(The weekly FBS Top 128 is calculated based on a formula described in Week 1. To review the methodology behind the adjusted aggregate score, read the full explanation here.)

The main reason behind the shift is to more accurately determine the relative strength of each opponent on a team’s schedule. As the season advances and there are more data points, a tough defeat to a seemingly marginal opponent or a victory over a seemingly stout challenger can suddenly look much better or worse a month or two down the line. By adjusting the Sagarin rankings that are used to calculate the weekly adjusted score, it will create more of a moving target but will hopefully provide a better understanding of how things shake out on fields across the country.

So now that we have discussed technical matters, who reigns supreme after the Week 3 slate of games?

Based on the numbers, we would have three of the five Power Five conferences shut out of the inaugural College Football Playoff if the season were to end today. Instead you’d see Baylor and Texas A&M squaring off in either Pasadena or New Orleans, Oklahoma and Ole Miss playing one another in whichever venue the Bears and Aggies don’t take, and the cry for an eight-team bracket would only intensify.

Of course, this is all going to shake out throughout the season as more results come in. Either Baylor or Oklahoma is bound to suffer at least one loss before the end of the year, given that they play one another on November 8. The same can be said about Ole Miss and Texas A&M, who square off a month earlier on October 11. The Big 12 and SEC are certainly not going to both put two teams into the playoff, given the way the rest of the year lines up, but the fact that they are so dominantly anchored atop the first few sets of Top 128 rankings deserves a deeper look.

Only three teams have an adjusted aggregate margin of victory over 60 points, while Texas A&M is the only other school with at least 55 points in adjusted margin. The two Texas schools in Waco and College Station have boosted their records against FCS competition; because this is weighted at half the value of a win over FBS opponents, it meant that the Bears and Aggies had to win by 60-plus points to eke out 15-16 adjusted points. On the other hand, Ole Miss and Oklahoma have played three games apiece against FBS competition, and only Baylor has yet to play an opponent from a Power Five conference.

All have looked dangerous so far despite following different paths into the top four. Other teams have a legitimate case for eventual inclusion; Oregon or whoever manages to vanquish the Ducks in the Pac-12 will have a legitimate case, as will Florida State or whichever team emerges from the conference of the defending national champion. The Big Ten still suffers through an ignominious non-conference campaign that saw the league’s schools go 1-10 against fellow Power Five foes, making them the most likely candidate to get shut out this season, though Nebraska — fifth this week, just 2.3 points behind Texas A&M — could change the narrative if they continue winning.

Next weekend marks the last chance for many teams to make a statement against a school from another conference. For some leagues, Week 4 will afford the first opportunity to begin setting a pecking order within the various divisions and conferences. And while defeat isn’t as much of a reason to sweat as it used to be during the BCS era, losses will nevertheless be costly for contenders as we move into league play.

Will the Big 12 and SEC dominate the first College Football Playoff field come December? Both are likely to land a team in the bracket, though claiming two apiece is far less likely. But, for one week at least, we can think about the implications of such a possibility (far-fetched though it may be). After all the talk about the Big 12 and Big Ten being the least likely candidates for a spot in the show, the former is looking like a world-beater while the latter continues to spiral downward further into mediocrity. And the SEC, despite the loss by its champion Auburn in the BCS championship game, remains the deepest conference top to bottom in the nation. That is all too evident when you scroll further down this week’s Top 128.