Penn State Has A Different Kind Of Y2k Computer Fear

October 25, 1999|By Andrew Bagnato, Tribune College Football Writer.

Penn State offensive tackle John Blick's eyebrows furrowed at the very suggestion that the Nittany Lions could go undefeated and be denied a slot in the Sugar Bowl, where the top two teams will meet for the national college football championship.

"There's always that chance," Blick said. "I can't describe what that would be like."

He paused, searching for the precise word.

"Just say it would be a great injustice," he said.

The Nittany Lions will find out where they stand when the first Bowl Championship Series standings are released Monday. The BCS employs a complicated formula that weighs records, strength of schedule, the two major polls and eight computer rankings.

Penn State fans are wise to be wary. Many remember 1994, when the Nittany Lions went 12-0 but finished behind fellow unbeaten Nebraska in both major polls. Nebraska went to the Orange Bowl, and Penn State, as the Big Ten champion, was contractually tied to the Rose Bowl. That was before college football's rulers devised the BCS, which added the Big Ten, Pac-10 and Rose Bowl to the national-title mix.

After escaping with a 31-25 victory at Purdue, Penn State (8-0) held on to the No. 2 spot in the latest AP media and USA Today/ESPN rankings Sunday. But the Nittany Lions aren't as highly ranked in the various computer polls that will help determine their fate.

The Nittany Lions don't pretend to understand the machinations of the BCS. They will concern themselves only with the specifics of the formula if it denies them their preseason goal--a berth in the national championship game.

"I think if you ask any of us, we're in the Sugar Bowl since the beginning of the season," fullback Mike Cerimele said. "The BCS bowl stuff--you can only take care of the team in front of you and see what happens."

That has been coach Joe Paterno's mantra since the BCS was adopted.

"I don't look at that stuff," Paterno said. "I have no interest in what's going on with the BCS. We have a tough schedule ahead of us. I think our job is to play each game week by week and see what happens at the end of the year. I don't have time to think about these other things that I can't do anything about. The only thing I can do anything about is get my team ready to play.

"I don't care what the computers say. I'm not going to worry about it."

The Nittany Lions might have to in December, when the final BCS standings set the Sugar Bowl matchup. A consensus of the eight computer rankings heading into last weekend's games had Virginia Tech first, followed by Nebraska, Florida State, Kansas State and Penn State.

It would seem logical for the Cornhuskers to fall after their loss Saturday at Texas, but logic doesn't always apply in the arcane world of computerized rankings. A year ago, Kansas State remained atop the Sagarin rankings the week after it lost the Big 12 title game to Texas A&M. And last week's Dunkel Index rated twice-beaten Wisconsin ahead of Penn State, while the Sagarin ratings had Penn State behind Marshall, which will not play a ranked team this year.

Computer rating formulas tend to reward lopsided victory margins. That's why the Nittany Lions fear that Virginia Tech will get more credit for whipping winless Rutgers 58-20 than Penn State will get for defeating a ranked Purdue team by six points on the road.