The End of Assists & The Best Facilitators in the Draft

According to most public draft boards, Phil Pressey is a late 2nd-round pick. There are legitimate concerns with his game, including his scoring and turnovers (however, his 4.5% tunovers per touch is still lower than plenty of starting guards in the NBA – including Chris Paul at 5.0%). Despite these concerns, our data indicates that Pressey may be the first or second best facilitator in this year’s draft.

Ignore Assist Numbers

Traditionally, the only number used to judge a player’s ability to facilitate the scoring of teammates has been assists. Here are the assist numbers for Michael Carter-Williams, Trey Burke, and Phil Pressey

Michael Carter-Williams: 7.3 Phil Pressey: 7.1 Trey Burke: 6.7

These numbers tell us that Carter-Williams was the most productive facilitator, with the spread between them being only 0.6 and Pressey only producing 0.4 more assists per game than Burke.

However, looking at assists alone may mislead us in a number of ways:

(a) it does not take into account the ability of teammates to make shots. (b) it does not take into account the level of shot defense applied to made shots. (c) it does not take into account most passes to shooting fouls, as assists are not given when the shooter is fouled and misses the shot as a result. (d) it does not take into account passes before the assist that were just as crucial as the assist.

The drawbacks of the assist stat can lead to faulty analysis which cannot be easily or accurately accounted for with mathematical adjustments and assumptions. Vantage Data and the following Vantage Stats attempt to correct these distortions and provide insight into this year’s crop of facilitators.

Assist+ Per 100 Chances: Pressey Impresses

Assist+ is a number that tracks not only traditional assists, but also gives credit to a passer when:

(a) a pass results in a shooting foul (b) a pass results in a missed open shot (attempts to de-penalize facilitators for teammates’ poor shooting on open shot attempts) (c) a pass is deemed crucial to an assist or a subsequent pass resulting in a shooting foul. Crucial passes can be thought of as “hockey assists,” or assists-to-assists.

This number provides a more holistic view of a facilitator’s ability and is a good place to start the analysis. The top 3 in Assist+ in this year’s draft class are as follows:

Phil Pressey: 14.2 Michael Carter-Williams: 11.5 Trey Burke: 11.1

Pressey’s rate of production is #1 and 23% higher than Carter-Williams. Further, as stated above, one of the big problems with assists in general is the lack of adjustment for the shot defense faced by teammates. This means that a player can rack up high assist numbers just by passing to covered teammates that make contested shots, and our numbers show this is exactly the case with Michael Carter-Williams.

True Facilitation: A Shot Defense-Adjusted Standard

True Facilitation is the number of passes to uncontested shots per 100 offensive chances, regardless of whether the shot is made or missed. In other words, it excludes those assists where the shooter made a contested shot, but includes passes that resulted in missed uncontested shots. Therefore, True Facilitation is the best measure of a passer’s ability to “find the open man.”

Watching a few of Rajon Rondo’s passes to open shots makes it clear that – until now – we’ve been undervaluing the facilitation ability of players that can do this consistently.

Pressey trails Burke, but is still #2 in the draft, but we see a major drop-off for Carter-Williams. This means that Carter-Williams’s teammates were good at making contested shots, not necessarily that he was good at getting his teammates good looks. This is a red-flag for those interested in Carter-Williams, and a confirmation for those interested in Pressey.

How They Facilitate

The Vantage data set is capable of providing even deeper analysis than these new metrics on facilitation. And we hope you’ll forgive us for diving a bit deeper here, but we think it is important to understand how these guys are facilitating opportunities for teammates. Are they simply standing on the perimeter and reversing the ball? Are they playing off a screen or driving? Understanding how guys produce is extremely important in assessing fit for specific teams.

Again, for the three players we’ve been highlighting, here are the %’s of their Assist+ generated through the drive, screen, into the post, and in transition:

The outlier is, again, Carter-Williams. Whereas both Pressey and Burke generated about the same number of facilitations via screens and drives, Carter-Williams thrived in transition and drives, not utilizing the pick and roll as much.

Here’s a look at a few of Pressey facilitations off screens:

and off the drive:

Pressey and Burke are a close 1-2 in terms of best facilitators in this years draft. While Pressey has the higher assist+, Burke has the higher True Facilitation, and both produce in similar ways.

More New Metrics to Come

We are using these posts as a friendlier introduction of Vantage’s capabilities than just providing data dumps or full scouting reports of individual players. If you missed any of our prior posts about new statistics, please check them out below and check back regularly (or follow on twitter) for the rest of the introductions.

And for those following along at home (admit it – you’re at work), enjoy the draft!

Israel's Lonah Salpeter mistakenly stops running a lap early when in second place in the women's 5,000m and Britain's Eilish McColgan charges through to snap up silver behind Dutch winner Sifan Hassan.

• Neil Black thinks there is more to come from the sprinter• Asher-Smith’s coach John Blackie credited with key roleDina Asher-Smith’s “out of this world” treble at the European Championships was the best display by a British track competitor in a generation, according to the UK Athletics performance director, Neil Black.Asher-Smith will go for 100m, […]

As we bid farewell to the first multi-sport European Championships, it wasn’t just the athletes and competitors showcasing their talents in Glasgow and Berlin, the sports photographers present also used the event to demonstrate their own skills and technique Continue reading...

In Berlin’s Olympic stadium and on the streets for the marathon - what a weekend it has been. As always, I want to hear your stories, so share your highlights and lowlights below the line What a fabulous weekend that was. On Friday morning I flew to Berlin for the European athletics championships. Since then […]

• Men’s 4x100m gold lifts GB to total haul of 74 medals• Russia secure trophy for top spot with 31 gold medalsGreat Britain and Northern Ireland took second place in the overall medal standings as the multi-sport European Championships concluded in Berlin and Scotland on Sunday night.An athletics gold in the concluding men’s 4x100m raised […]

• 22-year-old leads team home at European Championships• Laura Muir wins her first outdoor gold in 1500mSometimes athletics is a simple sport. A bunch of people run round a track and at the end Dina Asher-Smith wins another gold medal. On the final evening of these European Championships, however, the 22-year-old looked desperately up against […]

The British athletics team has potential but it is punishingly hard to win on the global stageFourteen years ago, during the Athens Olympic Games, Dina Asher-Smith drew a picture of herself with six words scribbled underneath: “I want to win the Olympics.” After what we have seen in Berlin this past week, that increasingly looks […]

• Belarusian shakes off Clemence Calvin at finish to secure win• 29-year-old had nosebleed 30 minutes into 2hr 26min raceVolha Mazuronak survived a horrendous nose bleed and a wrong turn at the finish to win a thrilling European Championship women’s marathon. Related: Jakob Ingebrigtsen, 17, wins 5,000m gold less than a day after 1500m triumph […]

Brilliant Norweigan takes European Championships by stormJakob even tried to high-five his brother, Henrik, during raceThe 17-year-old Jakob Ingebrigtsen made history for the second night in a row to claim a European 5000m gold – less than 24 hours after he had become the youngest athlete to ever win the 1500m title. Related: Katarina Johnson-Thompson […]

• Briton beats world champion Schippers with 21.89sec• Asher-Smith had already won gold in 100mTwo down, one to go. On an evening where the westerlies carried the first hints of autumn Dina Asher-Smith lit up the Olympiastadion with a scalding display of power and poise to add the European Championships 200m title to the 100m […]

• Briton believes working on shot put and javelin has paid off• ‘I feel like I’ve figured out the heptathlon’Katarina Johnson-Thompson has promised she will be even better in 2019 after smashing her heptathlon personal best to win European Championships silver in Berlin on Friday. She also revealed that a calf injury was so serious […]

The inaugural event in Berlin and Glasgow has proved to be a success, particularly on televisionThe inaugural European Championships – this hotchpotch, hybrid conglomerate of several sports bundled into one sporting feast – concludes on Sunday in Berlin and Glasgow and the many satellite Scottish sites that have been roped in, in the cause of […]

• Norwegian becomes youngest ever European champion• Matthew Hudson-Smith races to 400m win for BritainSeventeen-year-old Jakob Ingebrigtsen became the youngest European champion in history by claiming a shock gold on a night where Britain won four more medals in Berlin, including gold for Matthew Hudson-Smith.Ingebrigtsen, one of three Norwegian brothers in the men’s 1500m final, […]

• British heptathlete finishes 57 points behind Nafi Thiam• Johnson-Thompson led Belgian by 87 points overnightTime and time again Katarina Johnson-Thompson threw everything bar her size-eight spikes at Nafi Thiam. First came a 200m that ranked as the fastest ever in a European Championship heptathlon. Then a javelin personal best just when her Belgian rival […]

• Muir back to her best after altitude training in Switzerland• No British woman has won European gold at 1500mLaura Muir has declared herself fit, confident and ready to make history after recovering from an achilles niggle that stopped her doubling up at the European Championships. Related: Laura Muir: ‘I would have a lot easier […]

• Briton leads heptathlon favourite Nafi Thiam by 87 points• ‘I just wanted to attack and it paid off,’ says Johnson-ThompsonKatarina Johnson-Thompson went toe to toe with the best female athlete on the planet during a compelling first day of the heptathlon – and ended it on the front foot and gunning for European Championship […]