Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has been relatively fast moving in recent weeks. There are seven main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the southwest Indian Ocean, Western Australia, eastern Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and the Atlantic Ocean.Summary:Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 15 April to 19 April, 25 April to 29 April, and 29 April to 3 May. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 13 April to 17 April, 22 April to 26 April, and 4 May to 8 May.Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 10 April to 14 April, 25 April to 29 April, and 29 April to 3 May.

Issued Mar 31

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models,
which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models
are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long
and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model
ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts
and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however
the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to
28 days.

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