Friday, 6 November 2015

In my last blog, Closing
Rural Churches [1], I said that no strategy to reverse church decline would
work unless it deals with the root cause of decline, the church’s failure to recruit sufficient people to counteract its
losses. In this post I will put forward evidence that lack of conversions
is the primary cause of church decline in the UK since the end of the 19th
century.

I will investigate this hypothesis by looking at data for the
Presbyterian Church of Wales, (aka the Calvinist Methodists), one of the few
denominations to record conversions, the children of members who join,
transfers within the church, leavers and deaths. This data set was reproduced
by Currie et al for 1895-1968 [2].

First Church Decline Hypothesis [3]

Church Decline is Caused by Lack of Conversions

Stated more specifically, the fall in membership across most
of the pre-1900 denominations is due to their inability to keep conversion at
the level of the 19th century. The Presbyterian Church of Wales is
typical of this decline, as shown in the membership figures for the whole
church [4], figure 1.

Figure 1

The church started in the mid 1730s and had risen fast in
the early part of the 19th century. That rapid rise continued until
1905, the end of the last national revival in Wales, and has declined since.

To show that lack of conversions is the primary cause of
this decline, compare the different growth and loss rates for 1896-1900 with
1964-1968, figure 2. Growth comes from two sources: the children of church
members becoming members themselves once they have reached adulthood, called biological
growth; and conversions, the people who join from outside the church. The
losses also have two sources: deaths of members; and reversion, the total of
those who resign membership, those expelled, and the discrepancy in the
transfers between different congregations of the denomination [5].

Figure 2

At the end of the 19th century the conversion
rate of 1.20% was higher than the reversion rate of 1.12%. However by the 1960s
the conversion rate has dropped to a mere 0.4%, with reversion at 1.74%. The dramatic
drop in the number of conversions is a significant factor in the change from
growth to decline of the church.

A second cause of decline is the drop in biological growth,
the children of members. This drop is smaller than that of conversions, and is in
line with the general decline of the national birth rate from 2.86% in the late
1800s to 1.61% in the 1960s. Remarkably the child retention rate has improved
from 51% to 60%. Thus though the national drop in birth rate has
contributed to church decline, the church’s ability to keep its own children is
not a contributory factor.

The third cause of decline is the rising death rate. In the
1890s the death rate of the church, 0.83%, is less that the national death rate
of 1.7%, suggesting the church at that time was significantly younger than the population.
By the 1960s the church death rate has risen to 1.68% much higher than the
national death 1.18%, indicating an older than average church. Thus aging is a
factor in the church’s decline.

So why has the church aged? Some if it is obviously
demographic, falling birth rate. However the church has aged more than society,
and was significantly younger than society at the end of the 19th
century. I suggest that this relative youthfulness was due to the higher
conversion rate, as conversions generally occur when people are younger. By the
same reasoning the lack of conversions in the twentieth century has caused the
church to age faster than society.

Thus whether directly, or indirectly through aging, lack of
conversion is the root cause of the Presbyterian Church’s decline.

Let me investigate some alternative explanations.

Was Child Retention a Cause of Church Decline?

As already stated, the church’s child retention rate in the
1960s was better than it had been at the end of the 19th century.
Figure 3 shows that the child retention rate has generally improved slightly
from 1895 to the late 1950s. Its fall in the early 1960s is neither large nor
systematic.

Figure 3

Though it has been common to blame the church’s inability to
keep their children as a cause of its decline, figure 3 clearly shows this is
not the case. Of course the birth rate has fallen during this time, and that
may have led churches to think that their older profile reflected their lack of
attraction to the young. However, in common with the rest of society, they were
not producing children in sufficient numbers to keep themselves young [6].
Child retention remained good and was not a cause of decline.

Were Emigration and War Causes of Church Decline?

The changes in the sources of growth and decline can be tracked
from 1896 to 1968. Figure 4 shows falling biological growth together with the
rising death rate of the church; the former due to falling national birth rates.
The gap between these represents the aging profile of the church. Ignoring the
temporary rise in deaths during the First World War, the aging process really
starts in the 1920s. Some of this would be due to emigration between the wars
as seen in the population figures for Wales. But as the narrowing of the gap
with the biological growth continues, and then becomes negative as deaths
exceed child retention, emigration cannot be the sole cause [7].

Figure 4

Likewise the effects of war are confined to 1914-1918 alone.
The Second World War had little effect on the general trend of death rates, in
fact they temporarily improved. Biological growth fell during this war, but
only in line with the fall in birth rate 15 years previously. It rose again in
the 1960s when the post war baby boomers became eligible for membership [7]. Thus
neither war had any ongoing impact on the church’s decline.

Was Church Decline Caused by a Higher Leaving Rate?

The conversion and reversion (leaving) rates are given in
figure 5, with the very high conversion rates for the 1904-5 revival excluded
[8]. Before the revival the evidence is that conversion was just higher than
reversion, though during the revival the conversion rate became massively
higher, over 6%. After the revival reversion rises temporarily, although
nothing like the level of the revival’s conversion rate.

Figure 5

The cause of the temporary rise in reversion may have been due
new converts disillusioned with a church largely unaffected by the outpouring
of the Spirit. Rather than abandoning Christianity the leavers formed
independent mission churches and became part of the emerging Pentecostal
movement, an offspring of the revival [9].

The only other significant change in reversion rate is
during and after the Second World War. The lack of people leaving during the
war is counter-balanced by a larger number leaving in1947-8, possibly a delayed
effect due to people returning from the war.

Generally reversion has remained steady around 1.5% and has
not contributed to the increasing decline of the church. Rather, as figure 4
makes clear, decline has come from the falling conversion rate.

What if the 1890's Conversion Rate Had Been Maintained?

The membership figures for the Welsh Presbyterian church can
be adjusted assuming the pre 1904-5 revival conversion rates had been
maintained.Comparing them with
the actual membership figures shows that although the church would have still
declined, it would have done so far more slowly, figure 6.

Figure 6

As such 58% of the church decline was due to the falling
conversion rate, with most of the remainder due to the falling national birth
rate and the aging of the church, the latter also partly due to lack of
conversion.

Thus I conclude that lack of
conversion is the root cause of the Presbyterian Church’s decline.

Revival

It is clear from figure 6 that maintaining the conversion
rate would not have been sufficient to prevent decline. This is because even at
the end of the 19th century the conversion rate was only just higher
than the reversion rate; so that the church required high biological growth to
help it keep growing, figure 2. There is a suggestion here that the late 1800s
conversion rate was already inadequate for a church seeking to grow as a
proportion of society.

Thus the 20th century decline, due to lack of
conversions, was continuing a trend that had started even before 1895. The next
blog will attempt to link this lack of conversions to the lack of revival in
the church.

Conclusion

Although the study was just for the Welsh Presbyterian
Church, nevertheless there is no reason to believe it is any different to the
Methodist, Congregational, Anglican and Baptist churches, or those in Scotland
and England, all of whom declined throughout the twentieth century.

I thus conclude that the primary cause of
twentieth century church decline is the poor conversion rate.

[3] In a subsequent blog I will illustrate a second church
growth hypothesis that church growth is caused by revival. I will show that it
is the lack of revival that lies behind the lack of conversions of the
twentieth century onwards.

[4] The figures used are full members plus adherents, called
the whole church by Currie et al. The
Presbyterian Church of Wales had two classes of members. All could participate
in most aspects of church life, but only the full members could attend the
experience meeting, the seiat, seen as a high
privilege.

Membership and adherent figures are known from 1860 (Williams,
J., 1985. Digest of Welsh Historical
Statistics. UK: Government Statistical Service HMSO.) However he does not
record conversions, deaths etc.

From 1970 onwards membership data is taken from various
publications by Brierley, see http://www.churchmodel.org.uk/growthrefs.html#stats
As he only records full members not adherents the whole church is estimated by
linearly interpolating from the shrinking gap between full membership and the whole
church from 1950-1968 onwards.

[5] Most transfers were due to geographical mobility. For
most years more people transfer out, compared with those who transfer in,
presumably because people fail to take up their membership in the new church.

Conversions are called Probationers
from Without by Currie et al.

Biological growth comes from Currie’s Children of the Church.

[6] It is highly likely that child retention has fallen since
the 1960s. One estimate puts Christian child retention at around 30%, in
contrast to the much higher rate among Muslims. See Intergenerational Transmission of Islam in England and Wales: Evidence
from the Citizenship Survey, by J. Scourfield, C. Taylor, G. Moore, and S.
Gilliat-Ray, Sociology, 46(1):
91-108, 2012.

[7] The loss of young men in the First World War, and emigration
of largely younger people in the 1920s and 1930s, are often blamed as the cause
of church decline. As the above analysis shows these are temporary effects. Each of these has could have three effects seen in: (a) falling church
membership, (b) falling biological growth 15-20 years down the line, and (c) rising death rates well into the future.

(a) Although there is an increasing slope of decline in
church membership from 1920, (figure 1), about the right time for an emigration
effect, the leaving rate tells a different story. At the end of the 19th
century the leaving rate averaged 1.1%, 3432 people per year. This increased from
1901-1904 to 1.21%, 4004 people per year. However from 1908, post revival to
the start of World War One this increased dramatically to 1.46% 4961 people per
year. From 1920-1935 the leaving rate then dropped to 1.45%, 4392
people per year; the still high percentage being due to a smaller church, rather than
an increase in the number leaving, which had in fact dropped. Thus it is very difficult to prove that
emigration had a large direct effect on church decline. The increasing rate of
decline had started prior to the revival and was increased by the effects of
the revival, both pre-war effects..

(b) Loss of young people in the war and through emigration
would hit the birth rate during those times. The lowest birth rate is that of 1933
at 1.44%, compared with an average pre First World War birth rate of 2.5%. However
the 1950s birth rate only recovers to an average of 1.6%. Birth rates were
falling naturally apart from emigration and war effects. The biological growth of
the church does fall from around 1.3% pre World War 2 to just over 1% in the 1940s
and 1950, figure 4. Some of this is the ongoing effects of aging due to prior emigration
and world war 1, but some will be due to aging through lack of conversions. The
biological growth rate recovers briefly in early 1960s, but then has fallen
further by 1968, suggesting an ongoing aging of the church, not just one due to
fixed events such as emigration and war. As the
church was only keeping 50% of its young people it must have conversions in
order to stop aging as well as stopping decline.

(c) The expected increase
in death rate due to emigration and World War 1 losses would not be expected to
be seen until the 1960s onwards. Much of this is later than the cut off period,
1968, in this data set.

[8] In the next blog, on the effect of revival on conversion
and growth, these data points will then be included.

[9] For discussion of the disillusionment of revival
converts see:

Jones, B.P. (1999). How
Lovely are Thy Dwellings, Wellspring Books. Describes the beginnings of
mission halls and Pentecostal assemblies after the 1904-5 revival.

Livesay, J. (2000). When We Walk with the Lord, published by
the author, New Zealand, ISBN 0-473-06831-1. Describes the beginnings of the
Apostolic Church, the Pentecostal Church that started in Wales after the
revival.