Crucial period for oil as Iran exports shrink: IEA

Leticia Stanley |Sunday, September 16, 2018

Oil pushes past $80 as Iran fears mount

Following crippling sanctions on Iran following the collapse of the Washington and Tehran's nuclear deal, the price of a barrel of USA crude oil could result in a price rise of $4 (£3.12) a gallon of unleaded fuel at petrol station pumps.

Oil prices had their worst day in nearly a month Thursday, hurt by the latest signs that OPEC is ramping up production. With that accomplished, OPEC has loosened the requirements on production.

A report from Washington say that United States intelligence agencies now believe that Russians would again try to interfere the mid-term polls this year and also 2020 presidential elections.

Oil prices rose more than two per cent Tuesday as USA sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output. An Indian media outlet reports that USA has not taken any decision on sanctioning India for importing oil from Iran and investing in the Chabahar port, or buying the S-400 air defence missile system from Russian Federation.

"There remains a lot of noise in this week's markets, but the confluence of bullish near-term signals, such as Iran sanctions, sinking U.S. crude inventories and Mideast tensions should keep oil prices supported for the remainder of the week", according to Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. "But traders are now pivoting to the Opec and non-members' meeting next week in Algeria".

Two traders and a brokerage source said South Korean and Japanese refiners have been taking advantage of steep discounts of up to $10 per barrel between the USA crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CLc1 that American producers base their crude sales on and the worldwide Brent crude LCOc1 benchmark. The contract climbed $1.12 to $70.37 on Wednesday, the highest close since July 20. Total volume traded was about 34% below the 100-day average.

Brent for November settlement lost 93 cents to $78.81 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange after rising above $80 for the first time since May 22 on Wednesday. The global benchmark traded at a $9.63 premium to WTI for the same month.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets' global head of commodity strategy, confirmed the threat of multiple hurricanes could affect the supply chain, as well as Mr Trump's crippling export sanctions on Iran, prompting foreign investors to look elsewhere to set up refineries. The country is the third-biggest producer among Opec members. The hurricane is poised to be the strongest to slam North Carolina in 64 years, according to the U.S. Hurricane Center.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly count of stockpiles later Tuesday, followed by the US government's tally on Wednesday.

Oil traders were also watching the progress of category 4 Hurricane Florence, which is expected to make landfall in the United States by Friday. Duke Energy warned of power loss in North and SC, with the hurricane posing a threat to some pipelines running through the region.

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