Okay, so I look prescient (at least for 3 days) after last Thursday's appearance on Bloomberg radio's "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe" some 60 S&P 500 points ago. Now what?

Today's talking head appearance affords me another opportunity to describe my emerging bear call and can be viewed at foxbusiness.com (not on cable) at 1 PM (eastern) today.

In addition to my submitted suggested talking points (below, sent yesterday), I hope to explain why 1 - Big market moves within defined trading ranges mean nothing.2 - On its own, moves above and below the 200 day average also mean nothing.

Plus the emerging bull market in Komboloi (see accompanying image).

Suggested talking points:

Commentary: Blind Faith

* Bottom up type of investors - those that make investment decisions based primarily (many exclusively) on earnings - have helped drive stocks to current levels. * Following their lead is a very dangerous practice for investors, as bottom up investors have an investment method that is fraught with danger. * Last Thursday's stock market rally illustrated just how dangerous their approach to investing is: driving stocks higher on the news of the Eurozone deal without full knowledge of the deal's consequences. * Their method - earnings matter above all else - is anchored in the belief that what's good for business is good for the economy. To believe this is to believe in laissez-faire economics, that unfettered markets work best, that government that governs least governs best. * One would think that the recent experience (2007 - 2009) would have put this thinking to bed. But old ideas based on an ideology (dogma) die hard.

Market Assessment

* There is neither a fundamental nor a technical analysis reason to change my early bear call. * My proprietary Mega Trend is still strongly in the bear category. * Earnings are on the verge of a serious decline into 2012 (and beyond) as the Eurozone slips into recession. * At best, stocks should sell at a low double digit P/E, not the current average (15 times) P/E.

Actionable Items

* Resist the siren call of the bottom up bulls. Keep a low equity exposure (50 to 60%). * Put on mega cap, small cap hedges (long mega cap OEF, long the inverse small cap RWM). * Be prepared to drop the equity exposure below 50% when the second wave of the bear emerges.

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August 25, 2015

US Approaches a True Bear Marketby JohnAuthersFinancial Times

Another measure that has enduring appeal, and that can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, is a simple gauge of the market’s momentum, which is one of the strongest forces driving the market. Vinny Catalano of New York’s Blue Marble Research suggests that a “mega-trend reversal” tool can signal whether a true bear market has started. This compares the market’s price with its recent trend (its average over the past 50 days) and its longer trend (its average over the past 200 days). When the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day (sometimes colourfully called a “death cross”) while the price drops below both, and all are heading downwards, an upward trend has been decisively reversed.

Sometimes there comes a point in battle where one army just gives up. It's called a capitulation.

The same thing occasionally happens in investing, and it can arrive in the form of panic selling.

"It's when the towel gets thrown in," says Vinny Catalano, chief investment strategist of New York-based Blue Marble Research. There are a lot of times when selling by investment professionals is rooted in pressure from clients wondering why you're losing money or not beating the market, he says.If the pressure is great, then you'll get a lot of stocks being dumped all at once.A great example of a capitulation came in 2008. Over the first eight months of the year the major indexes lost about 11% as problems in the banking system became apparent. By September investors were clearly agitated, and the S&P 500 index plunged from 1,255 on Sept. 19 to under 900 by Oct. 10.That also coincided with historically high trading volume, but elevated volume isn't a necessary aspect, Mr. Catalano says. He points out that a temporary rally in stocks often comes within a few months before the real "bottom" is set. After that plays out, a rally can really get going again, as was the case in 2008-09.The great thing about capitulations is that there is an opportunity to find bargains. "I live for those days," Mr. Catalano says, but "they don't happen often."The recent selloff in biotechnology stocks likely isn't a capitulation, but rather just profit-taking within a bull market, he says. One clue is that people haven't given up on the biotech sector.Mr. Constable is the host of the News Hub show at WSJ Live online. Email him at simon.constable@wsj.com.

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About

President and Global Investment Strategist with Blue Marble Research and author of "Sectors and Styles" (Wiley 2006). Vinny is a leading investment strategist and asset manager. He appears regularly in the financial media (Bloomberg TV & Radio, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, foxbusiness.com, BNN TV, New Delhi TV, CCTV - America, Barrons, Reuters) and is a frequent guest speaker at various major investment forums. Vinny also produces and conducts timely topical and educational programs with various CFA Societies and other groups, including the highly acclaimed "Market Forecast Series". Vinny is a past president of the New York Society of Security Analysts, a managing member of Adriatic Capital Partners, and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Vinny attended The Juilliard School and New York University and earned his CFA charter in 1986.