Acee: Fighting to believe in Padres

San Diego Padres' Chase Headley, left, is congratulated by manager Bud Black after scoring on a single by Yasmani Grandal during the first inning of their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
— AP

San Diego Padres' Chase Headley, left, is congratulated by manager Bud Black after scoring on a single by Yasmani Grandal during the first inning of their baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 5, 2012, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
/ AP

PEORIA, Ariz.  The easiest thing to do is project pessimistically. Especially as it concerns sports.

One team wins the championship in whatever league in any given year.

Of the 34 postseason spots available in Major League Baseball over the past four years, just 16 different teams have earned those spots.

Losing is easy, predicting losing is easier. Especially in San Diego.

But if you can’t believe in your baseball team in March, what can you believe in?

For those of us who want to believe in the team that wears blue and white and sand and brown and yellow and desert camouflage, it’s more difficult to feel the tingling of optimism than in some baseball burghs. It’s times like this we generally shrug and revert to our standby: “At least we have the beach.”

But I won’t do it. I won’t predict gloom before April’s first dawn.

Opening Day is a week from Monday, and I invite you to believe.

Let us not fret over the bad fortune of 2012 seeming to leak into 2013.

Let us not be broken by the fact that the Padres don’t have a true No. 1 starting pitcher, for sure, and might not have what a championship team would consider a No. 2.

Let us vow to not be bowed by Chase Headley (the team’s best player) having a broken thumb that is going to keep him out at least the season’s first two weeks and perhaps as long as the first month.

Let us not lose faith because Logan Forsythe (the former third baseman who was going to be a super utility player and would start the season at third base because the aforementioned best player is the regular third baseman) remains sidelined by plantar fasciitis.

Let us not become dejected over the projected 3-4-5 portion of the lineup being in disarray. Let us not cry over the No.3 hitter (Headley) being out for at least two weeks, the No.4 (Carlos Quentin) hoping to be ready for Opening Day but possibly starting the season on the disabled list and the No.5 (Yasmani Grandal) being suspended the first 50 games.

Let us not get too far ahead of ourselves worrying what it means that pitcher Casey Kelly will have Tommy John surgery, as the organization’s top minor-league prospect, right fielder Rymer Liriano, just did. Both are considered central to the Padres’ not-too-distant future, which might have meant contributing as soon as this season.

And, most certainly, let us not lose heart simply by comparing Tyson Ross to the improvements made by most of the rest of the National League West.

Let me serve as your example in this pursuit of balance, the desire for a sort of wait-and-see optimism.

Being amateur psychologist and semipro mind reader and all-pro reader-between-the-lines, I won’t get worked up about the manager of this crew being unable to muster many tangible reasons when I asked this week what gives him hope the Padres can overcome the setbacks that have already befallen them considering that didn't go so well early last season.

“If we keep the pitching healthy, and they pitch like they are capable, we can hang in there,” Bud Black said. “And then we wait for Chase’s return and Q being back to normal and Logan getting back in there to the team we project to have.

“And then you wait for Yasmani’s return and if he’s playing well, if he’s doing well and ready to go after 50, that would be nice to get him back if he’s playing at the rate he played at last year too.”

The man is a hell of a manager. He has squeezed every ounce of potential out of a pretty-much-juiceless team the past several seasons. And as a diplomat, Black could have taught Kissinger some things.

Yet, you notice, through no fault of his own, Black’s projections are rife with “if” and conjoined by some “and then.”

Y'know, come to think of it, the “ifs” and “and thens” haven’t exactly worked out for the Padres.