Goodspeed Analysis: Is Libya ripe for revolution? Probably not

The world’s longest-serving head of state, Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s “King of Kings,” the “Imam of the Muslims” and “Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Libyan Revolution,” is braced for a day of rage Thursday similar to revolts that have already deposed leaders in neighbouring Egypt and Tunisia.

Col. Gaddafi has ruled Libya for 40 years based on a cult of personality, an iron fist and a widespread security apparatus.

But despite the rising protests that continued to convulse the Arab world on Wednesday by a generation demanding more freedom and an end to dictators, his ousting would be shocking.

Political activists using Facebook and Twitter are calling for demonstrations in Libya Thursday to demand Col. Gaddafi’s removal, a new constitution and comprehensive political and economic reforms.

The first signs of trouble broke in the port city of Benghazi Wednesday, when 200 to 300 demonstrators armed with stones and gasoline bombs clashed with riot police and moved to occupy the city’s Shajara Square.

Videos posted on YouTube showed security forces firing rubber bullets and water cannon at protesters who had set some vehicles on fire.

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Residents said the protest began with a sit-in by the families of nearly 1,000 prisoners who were killed in a massacre in Tripoli’s Abu Salim prison in 1996. They were demanding the release of their lawyer, Fethi Tarbel, who, according to the local newspaper Quryna, had been detained by police Tuesday.

Mr. Tarbel was later released, but by then the protest had grown. The crowds began to march on Benghazi’s downtown plaza, with demonstrators shouting anti-government slogans.

News of the protests in Benghazi was blacked out on Libya’s state-controlled news media. Instead, television stations ran reports of government supporters, parading with Libyan flags and pictures of Col. Gaddafi, in Benghazi, Tripoli, Syrte and Sebha.

Thursday’s protest suggests anti-government activists have been emboldened by the wave of protest sweeping the Middle East.

On the face of it, Libya shares many of the same problems as other authoritarian states. Col. Gaddafi has ruled for four decades; he tolerated little opposition; unemployment is high; the population is growing fast, and food and other staples are soaring out of reach of the poor and the middle class.

Like Egypt, Libya also faces a potential succession problem, with no designated political heir standing in the wings to take over from an increasingly erratic ruler.

U.S. diplomatic cables released in the recent WikiLeaks scandal suggest, that, like Egypt’s deposed Hosni Mubarak, who tried to position his son Gamal to take over, Col. Gaddafi has groomed three of his sons as potential heirs.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, a 38-year-old architect, has a reputation as a reformer and serves as his father’s chief pitch man for reopening relations with Western governments and investors.

Mutassim Gaddafi is the country’s national security advisor and has strong links with the security forces.

Khamis Gaddafi is commander of the Army’s 32nd Brigade, reportedly the best-trained and best-equipped in the military.

According to leaked cables from Gene Cretz, the U.S. ambassador, Col. Gaddafi may have nurtured a succession struggle among his sons as “a calculated effort to prevent anyone of them from authoritatively gaining the prize.”

At the same time, he bolsters his rule through a dynamic application of economic reform and political repression.

Unlike other troubled Arab states, Libya boasts a relatively small population (6.5 million) but has massive oil wealth, which gives Col. Gaddafi room to manoeuvre.

With a population concentrated in a few small cities, it is relatively easy for security forces to clamp down on potential unrest.

At the same time, the government controls up to 60% of Libya’s jobs, giving it extra clout.

Recently, Col. Gaddafi used Libya’s oil wealth to take some of the sting out of the protest movement by increasing subsidies to ease rising prices for food and other staples.

Saif Gaddafi has been negotiating the release of political prisoners in a bid to further quell opposition. This includes 110 members of the banned Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, freed Wednesday, because the group recently renounced violence.

“Libya’s political order is beginning to fray, but as long as the state continues to provide jobs and services, demands for additional civil and political rights will remain muted,” predicts a recent report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

As long as oil prices remain healthy, Libya’s prospects for revolution may be dim.

“Of all the countries in North Africa, I would have to say, personally, [Libya] is the one [where] I would most like to see freedom come. But I think there are some factors against broad levels of protest and social dislocation,” said Scott Carpenter, a former U.S. State Department expert on Middle East and North African affairs.

“You’ll see pockets of resistance against the regime, primarily in Benghazi, which has been a seat of resistance to Gaddafi in the past. But it is unlikely that there is a broad revolution.”