As we move into the off-season, I thought we might as well get started on the projected opening day roster for 2011. This is an exercise that I will do every month or so in the off-season as new information comes to light.

Keep in mind, this is not my idea of the roster, but what I think the roster will actually be based upon what we know for a fact (Yuniesky Betancourt for example) or what we think is a reasonable likelihood. We are also going to keep the speculation to a minimum (i.e. I will save the Greinke or DeJesus trade theories for another column). As such, let’s take a look at where the Royals seem to be headed with respect to next spring.

POSITION PLAYERS

Catcher – Brayan Pena, Lucas May

First Base/Designated Hitter – Billy Buter, Kila Ka’aihue

Second Base – Chris Getz

Shortstop – Yuniesky Betancourt

Third Base – Mike Aviles

Left Field – Alex Gordon

Center Field – Jarrod Dyson

Right Field – David DeJesus

Bench – Wilson Betemit, Gregor Blanco, Mitch Maier

The Kansas City Star’s article earlier this week pointed to Aviles at third if Getz can lock down the everyday second base job with Betemit in a utility role, which surprised me some, but I don’t hate the logic, either.

There was/has been/will be considerable talk of acquiring a veteran catcher to fill the gap before Jason Kendall returns, but I have to wonder if that really makes any sense at all for the Royals. They don’t plan on contending in 2011, have Kendall coming back at some point and two catchers who are both out of options as it is.

The odd man out in the above equation is Josh Fields, who might have to rely on Jarrod Dyson getting the bat knocked out of his hands in spring training to open up a spot for him. At least that is how it stands right now, anyway.

To quote The Talking Heads, “Same as it ever was.” It certainly feels like Brian Bannister is going to be non-tendered and Kyle Davies brought back. Given that the payroll is reportedly shrinking this year, it is tough to see a free agent acquisition to bolster this group. Of course, if Bruce Chen can repeat his 2010 performance, Luke Hochevar continues to improve and Sean O’Sullivan develops…..oh, nevermind.

BULLPEN

Joakim Soria, Gil Meche, Blake Wood, Robinson Tejeda and Dusty Hughes all seem to be locks. The first four are certain unless the club really goes cheap and non-tenders Tejeda, which would not make much sense at all. Hughes, being left-handed and experienced, would also seem to have a spot – at least for the first couple of months.

I will delve into a little speculation for the final two bullpen openings and project that Tim Collins will make the team out of spring training. With 329 strikeouts in 223 innings and an outstanding debut in AAA last year (20 IP, 21K, 9 H), it doesn’t seem like there is any reason not to get his career underway.

The final spot, right now, would seem to be a battle between Kanekoa Texeira (who the organization likes) and Greg Holland. While Holland had some dismal outings in the majors, he has always been a guy who takes a few weeks to get his feet on the ground at a new level. He finished the year by striking out six of the last eight batters he faced.

ESTIMATED TIMES OF ARRIVAL

These are the names you care about and my educated guess as to when we will see them. I am only looking at prospects that I think will debut in 2011.

With respect to Montgomery and Duffy, the Royals are going to face a real innings crunch with those two. Even with post-season action, those two will have compiled no more than 100 innings a piece in 2010. Given that, it would be tough (and probably not prudent) for the Royals to slot them into the rotation in mid-season. The organization has also seemed to shy away from putting starting pitching prospects into the major league bullpen as way of easing them into the bigs, so that led me to project September arrivals.

A name you are likely looking for is John Lamb, but he will be just twenty next year and having vaulted through three levels in 2010, the Royals might be content to wait until spring of 2012 to give him a look.

Another name is Jeff Bianchi, but given what we saw out of Mike Aviles as he rushed back into action from Tommy John surgery, I am speculating that it might take most of 2011 for Bianchi to round back into form.

Well, that is pass number one at this exercise. There is a pretty good chance that come next month, this might look considerably different. Whether change is good or bad remains to be seen.

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Comments

Written by Jason about 4 years ago.

Clark I think your first pass is spot on… I do think Dyson will need all of Spring and maybe some AAA time before he cracks the roster. He needs to cut down on his strikeouts before he will be found roaming Kauffman.

I think KC will keep things lean in 2011, but I can’t help but think Moore will sign a few BS players to gum up the system. A veteran catcher would be one. A Wee Willie type would be another. While Moore gets a pass on his drafting he still sucks at assembling a 25-man roster.

Written by Daniel about 4 years ago.

@Jason – Dayton doesn’t deserve just ‘a pass’ on his drafting, he deserves outright praise for building the best farm system in all of baseball.

Written by fb0252 about 4 years ago.

My reaction:
there is zero evidence to date that Dyson is an MLB CF prospect.
for what fathomable reason would you have Aviles at 3B?
Betemit is forever tagged as a bad fielding 3b due to a couple of errors (see Aviles)
Getz–what has he done to be starting 2b?
The projected batting lineup — guaranteed (major) fail.
Somebody needs to call Yost/GMDM myth that our players need be
26 years old before they are called up.

Written by Thomas about 4 years ago.

Do you think GMDM will try a similar strategy to last year “sign 3 veteran OFs, flip them into value” this off season? Also, do you think Lucas May will develop into a decent catcher, or at least, more valuable than Jason Kendall or Brayan Pena?

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

fb0252 – Aviles is at third because the organization has indicated that is their preference (Aviles-Betancourt-Getz-Butler/Ka’aihue). Actually Aviles has played more third than second in his minor league career, so I don’t have a problem with him there if that’s what it takes to get him in the lineup everyday.

Getz has done nothing to be a starting 2b, but the Royals apparently want to ‘find out’. Again, I don’t have a huge problem with trying that next season given you can easily slide Aviles to 2nd, put Betemit at 3rd and wait for Giavotella if Getz falls flat.

Actually, there is defensive evidence that Dyson can be well above average in center, it’s the bat that’s the problem. However, we’re talking about a choice between Maier, Dyson and Blanco here – with very unproven Derrick Robinson and Paulo Orlando in the minors. It’s not like two months of Dyson next year is going to block anyone or hurt the team that much more than any of the other guys.

Written by Clark Fosler about 4 years ago.

Thomas – I’m not sure the Royals wouldn’t be better served this time around to give time to Gordon/Blanco/Dyson/Getz so they can make a decision on all of them as opposed to signing veteran guys and flipping them (which Dayton has done a decent job of doing). We don’t want to be going into 2012 not knowing about this group and having to spend another year ‘finding out’.

@Daniel, i wouldn’t go as far to say GMDM deserved outright praise but at least a pat on the back, because who cares if we have the best farm system if once they get to the Big Show they amount to nothing, but i would lean towards him getting credit for building it, and if we win big once they are all up then he will definitely deserve a lot of praise.

Written by Glenn about 4 years ago.

Question. How long is a player in the minors before you have to protect him in the rule V draft?

Written by Kyle about 4 years ago.

I know Yost and Moore love Betancourt, but outside of that, why wouldn’t Aviles get a look at SS? I think the best infield could be Betemit (Until May or June, then Moustakas), Aviles, Getz, and Kila/Butler. An all LHH outfield and bench? I think Lough or Parraz will get a shot at of spring training.

I doubt any money gets spent in the offseason, but if they do spend money on anything other than a #2 or #3 starter, they are nuts. A rotation of Greinke, #2 FA, Hochevar, Chen/Davies/O’Sullivan is much nicer. Is Teaford closer to the bigs than Monty or Duffy? Are any of the SP going to play winter ball? I think a bullpen of Soria, Meche, Tejeda, Wood, Collins, Coleman, and Hardy would like nice. Holland, Hughes, and Texiera will also get their chances.

Written by SullivanRoyal about 4 years ago.

the infield will start out as mentioned, Aviles:Yuni:Getz:Butler/Kila

when Moustakas is promoted…

Moustakas:Yuni:Aviles:Butler/Kila

By putting Aviles on 3B, you get a chance still to see more of Getz until Moustakas is called up. When Moustakas is called up, either Getz or Yuni will need to go, unless Aviles has digressed to be worse than those guys, which I don’t foresee.

Written by fb0252 about 4 years ago.

my opinion is that what is being posted here is looser stuff. I’d doubt winning organizations need to “Play” Getz to see what they’ve got, since Getz has already been evaluated on that basis by knowledgable people and has a long track record. Then, you play one of the best 2b in the majors at a power position 3b to see what Getz has got. to see what Getz has you screw up your whole infield, and discourage Betemit after a superb season.
What a winning org probably does is tell benemit to work on his fielding and conditioning, and tell him he either wins the 3b job on basis of good fielding or loses it to Mouse mid season. And, you play this years 2nd best 2b in the majors at 2b. If you’re giving anybody a shot at experimenting do you do it with a MLB lite 2b in Getz, or somebody with potential as Kila at 1b and Gordon LF and Pena at Catch? Pena still can’t field despite all evidence to the contrary. lol. They need to give a very decent potential lineup from this year a couple months to jell early 2011. This maybe a lot better than most think.

Written by gbewing about 4 years ago.

I expect a trade maybe not a big 1 but something that might include a B level prospect (non elite but still good) They need to find a way to get another SP that’s not just pure filler. Target a Bud Norris type, also I take run at Joba in NYY, do what Arizona did with Ian Kennedy, buy a prospect at lowest value

I hope they don’t waste their time on veteran catcher garbage. It will cost minimal money but they have enough catching in the organization. Pena and May at worst and I say pair 1 of them with Manny Pina who is all glove and hits as well as Kendal probably. If they really want to think catcher, Iannetta in Colorado or Ryan Hanigan in Cincy.

Moore needs to still get support pieces for the big studs coming, not old guys but useful role player types who haven’t had a chance Ben Franciso anyone?

Written by John about 4 years ago.

i think your lineup is 99% correct…i don’t think dyson will make the club out of ST…i see fields on the team instead, with an OF of Gordon/Maier-Blanco/DeJesus.

on the pitching, i also think the only change COULD be coleman over texeira…however it probably makes more sense to keep texeira up and then go to coleman if texeira (or someone else) falters.

in summary, this team is not going to be very good next year, unless something unexpected happens like hochevar becoming a solid #2 and/or gordon experiencing a breakout season.

Written by Jamie about 4 years ago.

Come on, people. What is not to know? Getz, Blanco, and Dyson will all get the bats knocked out of their hands. They are all Joey Gathright clones. Meier is lucky to be in the big leagues. Who needs a 6’3″, 225 pound ground ball hitter? Gordon plays with no passion or fire. The Royals are stuck in the 1970s, thinking about shooting into the gaps and running for daylight. Bring on Adam Dunn!