Evening Update, August 16th.

Good evening all, hope you are all doing well. Remember back a couple
of months, I said I would let you all know when the real move happens?

I’m now letting you know. It is on like you would not believe, and
the people who had doubts that it was going to turn wetter will now
become believers.

Whilst I was in the tractor slashing today, I recalled this.

If you recall, I showed you this because the El Nino had left a lot
of energy in the weather system. And now its about to be utilised, with
global temperatures still elevated at 0.39c above normal.

All this extra energy means extra water vapour, in the form of
humidity in the atmosphere. Sooner or later, our day of reckoning was
always coming.

So for the next few months, mother nature is going to put on a show,
and demonstrate quite clearly that it is in charge, and not everyone on
Earth driving SUVs or using their air cons.

The blocking pattern was indeed a sign that it wasn’t aligned, and
needed some more time. It appears that hurdled has been cleared, so let
the fun begin.

Before beginning, I will cover the system on Friday briefly, we
should see a few mm for the Eyre Peninsula, and then increasing further
East.

The trough is likely to tap into moisture near Adelaide, so from
there Eastwards falls of 10 – 20 mm are likely, including Victoria and
Southern NSW.

If you look at the satellite photo, you can see what I has stated on
the 4th of this month has happened, with surface troughs now developing
in response to the heat inland.

This is what will be the catalyst for the rain to begin to develop on
Thursday over SA, and then further on Friday into Victoria and NSW.

In fact the more i look at this system, the more I think we may get a surprise with how much rain we may get from this.

The front is well back off the coast of WA, over the next 12 hours or
so it will develop an upper trough where the arrow is indicating, and
then be pushed East.

So from tomorrow onwards I will be focussing on this until its done.

So after this the big system next week looks massive, in fact I
believe this will be the biggest August event as far as I can recall.
Thats how big it appears to me.

Every day with every run it still gives us this huge upper Low
scenario, so this is definitely looking likely to be favourable for much
of SA if its positioned where this is shown to be in the above pic.

The scary thing is that the GFS increases this on the Wednesday, the
purple colour into Alice Springs indicates that this upper low is going
to be particularly severe, so more hail drifts in the streets are likely
right across the country as this gets going.

And as if we need it to intensify even further, the upper low gets
stronger once its into NSW on the Thursday, so this is what the GFS
sees.

The Canadian also responds now with it seeing what the others are
seeing, for the first time its ramped up its rainfall expectations to
something a bit more believable.

A lot less organised, but wet nonetheless. And thats because it also
feeds in lots of moisture as well, so the set up is now complete, its
simply a matter of where this all plays out.

The European model is still off the scale. Here is the upper low, much more extreme than GFS.

This is simply insanity. An upper Low of this is intensity would be
hard pressed to be developing in the summer, let alone August. This is
the most impressive upper low I have seen in August.

Because the upper Low is so severe, the surface low doesn’t take long
to develop either. If you look at this chart from the EC, I expect
widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms to be occurring on the Southern
and Eastern flank of the low where maximum upslide will be.

As we saw this morning, it then tracks into NSW slowly, so expect the
storms to follow this low, and I have a feeling the surface Low will
move out to sea and the upper low may stay over land, but time will
tell.

So to summarise, its going to be epic, as expected. A very period
coming up. Speaking of which, here is the current radar for Adelaide.

I wouldn’t get too excited as this band will weaken, but given it has
survived this far is a good sign for both Friday and next week.

I expect this to break up somewhat as it enters Victoria later tonight, and deliver a few mms at best.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

Today’s Update : The Canadian makes the breakthrough, and senses that something major is brewing.

Good morning all, hope you are all well, up early this morning
because I remembered late last night I cant do an update tonight as I
will be busy.

I totally forgot of course I had people coming over, so I will update
this morning instead. And it works out better, because this morning the
Canadian has sensed what is going on.

As I mentioned yesterday, soon enough the models will put 2 and 2 together and come up with 4.

On the satellite photo, the moisture still continues to dominate, and
another burst has developed over the Gasgoyne in WA. So its clear to me
what is going on, we are being saved by this ridge over Perth, the
ridge over troubled waters I referred too a while back in a piece of
attempted humour!

But, moisture is relentless, if you cannot get cold air to move up, it just keeps piling on in.

Here is the animation from the Canadian showing the massive amount of
moisture that will pile in next weekend and early the following week.
Now, yesterday I got messages galore about the BOMs latest outlook, in
particular the very high chance of a very dry December with heatwaves.

That will be almost impossible unless we see a complete shift in the
pattern, there is simply no way that upper ridges can become established
whilst this sort of moisture continues to pile in without any
resistance.

Instead, you will see this happen.

The upper pattern develops because of the moisture, it really has no choice but to do so, and that’s where things light up.

If you look at the pressure pattern, its clear what is going on.

Normally, the cold air down to the far SW would come up and meet this
moisture, and a big low would develop. However, this high is persisting
here, so this is why the models don’t have much rain, they think the
cold air wont be strong enough to interact with it.

But, I think it will do as indicated in this picture above, the cold
air runs around the high and feeds up into this trough the long way
around. And now canadian sees that, amplifies the upper trough, and
brings rain into the SE of the country.

So here we see the first model start to realise that you simply
cannot sustain so much moisture in the atmosphere without a trough
developing, and over the next few days its all going to be about how
strong this will be and where.

I am sensing something huge is brewing, and will make a mockery of the BOMs December outlook.

Lastly, the EC also has a ridiculous airmass for next weekend, it has
little rainfall because it hasn’t worked out where the cold air will
come from, but it will. The Canadian has worked it out, I expect this
and GFS to follow over the next few days.

That’s it for this morning, quite good weather for the next week then
I think it becomes very active with potentially something big on the
cards.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

I have been getting a lot of messages about the BOMs Seasonal
outlook, in particular the hot and dry December they have forecast.

I don’t think I have seen such a savage response to it on social
media, it appears to me that now everyone can see what the BOM
represent. They are clearly on the take, a co-ordinated left wing
organization aimed at producing fear and scare mongering for profit.

Within hours of going to print, every media news outlet was linking
the outlook to their websites. Make no mistake, this was a co-ordinated
alarmism strike against everyone, as clearly they are all in on the scam
together.

In any case, the weather will be the judge, and whilst I think it
will be quite hot and dry for periods of December, the notion of an 80%
chance of below average rain and heatwaves is absurd and it is abundantly clear why.

To get any sort of heatwaves you need to see very dry air move up
into the interior of the country. Whilst this ridge is sitting below WA
and into the Bight, the chances of this happening are zero.

As you can see above, instead we see lots of moisture just continue
to come in, this is not new, I have banging on about this for many
months. And this is where the alarmism comes in, because anyone with
half a brain can clearly see this, its obvious.

We saw moisture already feeding down in July from the tropics, we saw
Darwin get slaughtered in September, this was always the way this was
going to go, so either the BOM is ignorant, or corrupt.

And I think we all know which one. yes, its going to be hot, because
its summer. But without the dry air troughs will rule, as they have been
now for the last 3 weeks, and will ramp right up.

If the MJO can manage to get into Phase 4 and bring the monsoon
trough in, then December will be extremely wet for Eastern Australia.

As it stands, I’m doing the Seasonal Outlooks now and I think at the
least we will see average rainfall because I’m just not seeing the cold
and dry air needed to form upper high pressure over the country.

Lets look at the European this morning, here is the Precipitable Water animation for next weekend, days 6 – 10.

So, how do you think this will end up? Dry and hot? Laughable. And
without the cold air from the South, this push from the tropics has
nothing stopping it.

This is an extreme amount of moisture, if we did get a front to hook up to this, it would break December rainfall records.

To stop this momentum of moisture from the North, we need to see a
massive cold front sweep up and drive cold dry air into the tropics.

Whilst this ridge sits here, most of the cold air gets driven to NZ.
It simply wont be happening, at least for the first half of the month.

So its all setting up for a very active month, as I said there will be dry areas, no doubt, and hot, not doubt.

However, nothing to the scale of the garbage we saw released by the
BOM. I expect more than 50% of the country to exceed the December
average for rainfall, there you go, there is my forecast, I will be very
surprised if it doesn’t.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

I believe in some level of Climate Change, but what i don't like is how just about every variant of weather is somehow evidence that the scaremongering CC crowd is correct.

The next 7 days in my area is all forecast to be 20c-23c with a sprinkling of rain.

One week obviously means little in the great scheme of things, but it's an interesting start to the summer, considering 15-20 years ago we were being told how the beaches wouldn't be around, and everyday would be 35c+.

Good evening everyone, hope you are all well tonight. I know I keep
saying it, but I am super busy as we all are at this time of year.

As I also keep saying, the weather waits for no one and now we are
starting to see things unfold for Xmas, with EC clearly out in front
seeing what is going on before any of the others.

Onto current matters, we have seen some ridiculous falls of rain that
have made a mockery of the dry December the BOM was calling for. And
given the month is only half way, its going to get a lot worse for them.

Whilst we are on such matters, I’m going to go on the attack on
social media in the next few days, as the BOM have decided to issue
their 3 month outlook yesterday, 12 days ahead of schedule, for the sole
reason being that so no one can see how pathetic their forecast for
December was.

Instead of being accountable for the ridiculous forecast, they have simply taken it down 12 days early, so no one can see it.

Luckily, I save these things and can show you just how bad it was.

Apparently in December, we see a 75% chance that most of the country
receives 1 – 5 mm, and there is an area that receives 0 mm in the NE
pastoral of SA. This is just mind numbing stupidity that the model would
suggest such a thing, especially when you see what it being forecast
tonight.

It gets better, they forecast a very high chance of the whole country being a good possibility of being well below average.

You just have to wonder about how those employed at the National
Climate Centre can even make such a forecast, I know they are corrupt
and on the take, this we know, but there is simply no excuse for this. I
have been in constant dialogue for months about what I was seeing and
why, and even showed the flaws in the climate models. So its really a
question of whether you strive to be accurate, or strive to be an
alarmist lefty organization with no credibility.

I have also said if I see a decile 1 month, make no mistake, I will
be forecasting it months in advance. And that day will most certainly
come soon enough.

The current satellite photo also shows the failure of the BOM to be
able to use any common sense, whatsoever. If you are going to have a
year, just like this one, with cold water in the South, and warmer water
in the North, you don’t have to be a Rhodes Scholar to work out what is
the likely result.

We are going to be bombarded with tropical moisture, continually
pushing South. As it does, it cools and forms convection, which in turn
forms into troughs.

As we speak, two troughs are now developing right before our eyes,
whilst the other one is still going of course. A surface trough is
developing in Central Australia, and this is going to move into Western
QLD and continue this procession of thunderstorms that have been belting
the region.

Another upper trough is now developing in WA, this one is of
particular interest because it is not being picked up very well by the
models, so this could have a surprise in store late weekend, and again,
that will be East of SA.

Somehow, the BOM thought we would be dominated by higher pressure,
and I have spent the last 3 months showing you why that was never going
to happen.

And that’s why we have seen enormous falls through Western QLD and most of NSW over the last 48 hours.

Onto other matters, both the GFS and the Canadian have been
especially woeful of late, they did not analyze this system well at all.
Last night when the upper low was near Mildura, both models had a
trough that was on death row, so they are failing to somehow get the
right data.

So tonight GFS has gone down the EC path, and takes the cyclone out
off the NW coast. The Canadian however still wants to bring the rain
through the middle of the country. Either scenario ends up with flooding
rains.

The Canadian absolutely makes a mess of the Top End, it has so much
rain thats it is astounding, and here is where it see the cyclone
forming next Wednesday.

A couple of days later it slides it down the coast, now the only
place this goes form here is East, and this is where its so stupid to
think that QLD and NSW will not end up being very wet. The only question
is, will it make it further South to impact South Australia, or does it
go quickly across the country and impact QLD and NSW.

You can see the enormity here of what is setting up, the only
difference between this and the European, is that CMC sees it over
Darwin, EC takes it down the NW coast. Either way, there is a deluge
coming.

The European has been miles ahead with this, and here is the
animation of what it does with it. It actually starts in a similar spot,
but then slides it down the West coast.

Once it slides it down the coast it really gets to work, as it is
likely to be in a more favourable environment further South with less
wind shear, then bombs it to very decent Cat 3 or 4. You can see once it
crosses the coast, it will spread the moisture far and wide.

And then it heads South, and this is where it gets very interesting.

If I had to envisage a picture to show you months ago what I was
seeing as happening in summer, then this one above is it. It shows lower
pressure taking over, and connecting to the cyclone.

And the biggest thing is whether or not it hits the colder air from
the big upper trough down to the SW. It will be the difference between
this moisture shooting South and not being used, or a massive rain event
spreading across the country.

If this cold air, in the brown, comes up and meets this insane amount
of moisture, it will sweep it across the country and give Southern
Australia its wettest last week of the year its ever had. If it doesn’t
connect, all this moisture may dive South to Antarctica, and be wasted.

Clearly from the EC rainfall forecast you can see the rain in WA is
clearly the biggest they have seen in many years. And inevitably, it
will end up in the Eastern half of the country one way or the other. So
its no longer speculation tonight, its now on and we will actually be
able to see it building over the next 3 or 4 days.

So that’s it for tonight, a lot going on and the crazy is about to
step up a notch or two. If you have any questions, please ask them in
the comments, and if you also could let me know how much rain you have
and your location please, that would be great.

Before I go, I am launching a new advertising campaign with regards
to the sponsorship for the SANTFA, and I will be producing an A4 flyer
that I will be using there and everywhere else as well. If anyone would
like to add a testimonial for this flyer, could you please let me know
in the comments and I will contact you, or send me an email using the
contact us form.

I’m also going to update the website and will use these on here as
well. So if you are interested that would be much appreciated.

Also, I am waiting on my web developer to set up the meeting for the
phone app, and then I will give you an ETA on when it will be ready. I’m
going to be introducing new stuff as well on the app so I’m going to do
it once, and do it properly!

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

It's one of the hallmarks of the snake oil salesman, horlicks. Cast aspersions at legitimate products, especially if they're free (even though you yourself use their information) in the hope that the suckers will keep paying for yours.

BOM & A V Weather have equal access to whatever models & data they choose to use, the interpretation is what matters to people whose livliehood depends on accuracy.This guy & now 700+ others have decided it's better to speculate a little in order to accumulate:

Agree 100% with you regarding the lollipopS at BOM, they are a
disgrace, and it was due to their incompetency with forecasts that I
started following you Anthony, and that is some time ago now, so shows
how long they have been giving crap forecasts.
As you say, will be watching just how things pan out for Vic, but I am not liking the storm aspect on Thursday, so I hope that doesn’t come off , its very close to central Melb.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

Good evening all, hope everyone is well tonight. Lots of weather
going on, but nothing near the hype from the corrupt and agenda driven
nonsense we have seen from the BOM today.

We will see a standard
rain event that will drop around 20 - 40 mm through most of Southern
areas of SA, possibly a bit higher back into the NW Pastoral this
evening. But nowhere near an event that needs you going to get sandbags,
as I saw issued earlier somewhere.

We have gone from the BOMs David Jones
saying in 2008 that the new permanent drought is here to stay, to now
doing a back flip and saying that we will see more floods and extreme
weather only 8 years later because he has been proven incorrect.

So from now on, every rain event is a 1 in 100 year event, just so that
you can expect it. What is really pathetic is I explained to clients
many months of this occurring, and WHY it would occur, and it has
nothing to do with CO2, which makes up 0.004% of the atmosphere, in
other words a tiny trace gas.

Anyhow, there is a new weather
update tonight for members, detailing the next few weeks and the subtle
climatic shift that is underway and what that will mean in the weeks
ahead.

I will have another update in the morning on the 1 in 1000 year floods, see you back here then.

And for balance:Alex GillYou do throw 'biblical ' in there monthly and I'm yet to see an ark lol 🐘

Tonights Update : The BOM have become a special kind of stupid today.

Good evening all, hope you are well this evening. Lots going on, a
decent system for SA, but you wouldn’t know it as the BOM are hyping
this event up to be a 1 in 10 year event.

It appears every system is biblical, as it fits their agenda driven horse gelati that they spew forth regularly.

This system will deliver a solid rain band, and places may see 50 mm
or so, but most places will be in the 30 mm range give or take.

However all this media releases they are doing is just utter
nonsense. This is a good rain event with likely little storm activity
over land, the coastal regions may see some but not a great deal.

It will also be windy, again nothing that we haven’t seen 7 million
times before. And then a media release about where to get sandbags.
Completely overdone, and on purpose. This is the same people who 10
years ago said we had better get used to a drying climate.

I think you will all agree that this gelati is getting tiring from
them, I have had people messaging all day ready to evacuate houses F.F.S!!

Tomorrow morning at 5 am, the European model has record Precipitable
Water forecast over the West coast of SA. There is no disputing this,
this airmass will be beyond belief.

However it will lack cooler air in the mid levels, so this will cap rainfall, as will the fact that’s it 5 am and not 5 pm.

Here is the EC forecast rainfall for the next 72 hours, if this is
bad enough to issue press releases about where to get sandbags then I’m
Lebron James.

The heaviest falls are way out west, as it moves this way it will
weaken, so it looks like Victoria can only expect 10 mm or so in the
Western parts of the state, and the SE of SA looks similar.

Aside from all this, there isn’t much more to report tonight other
than the moisture is going to continue to build and move South after
every event.

Jan 20 - 21: And indeed we see a cut off develop over the Victorian and Tasmania
regions, this one wont be a big event at this stage but is a great sign
that the following week near Australia Day could see a big event.

The EC 10 day rainfall forecast is getting wetter, I think it senses
that things are about to move in the coming weeks, all of this moisture
that is biblical in nature will eventually result in a huge event, most
likely in NSW as well, once that ridge is displaced I expect rainfall in
the hundreds of mms if it sets up as I think it will.

So in summary, a good event in SA, nothing near the hype though.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

Weekly Wrap Up, April 29th.

Todays Update : Questions are answered, and are then replaced by even more questions.

Good evening everyone, hope you are all well, I am sure you are all
busy sowing and getting into it. So hopefully you have time to see this
update, as I will look at the pros and cons for 2017, and what that will
mean for 2018.

As we all know, the El Nino is off the table, but this does not mean
we will see warming in the months ahead, it just means that we wont see
enough warming to tip the scales to form an El Nino.

So the behaviour over the next 3 months will determine more than just
the weather, it will determine what happens in Spring, in summer, and
in 2018.

The next 3 months is crucial, the climate at the moment is balancing
on a knife edge, there is a lot of scenarios that could unfold.

What we do know, is that models are a fair way behind on this, but
will come around to my forecast. CFSv2 and the BOM are the first two
models who now agree with my theory and are now coming on.

Here above we see the latest run of the CFSv2 for the SST anomalies
until January. If you look at this, you will notice that it now see
quite cooler water especially in the Nino 1 and 2 region.

However, it is being very simplistic with this forecast, because all
this model is doing is training the subsurface water through up to the
surface.

If you look at the subsurface, you can see there is cold water in the
subsurface getting ready to surface, and the model now thinks this will
surface and spread Westwards on the surface.

The timing of this will be crucial, if it comes up to quick it may
use to much of this cold water too early. And as it comes up, the warm
water you can see on the left of the graph will then start moving
towards South America, and thats why the model starts having warm water
near South America in the summer.

So how do we know how fast all this happens? We don’t, and neither
does the model, its guessing, it will be determined by the Easterly
winds. And as we know, the Easterly winds are still going strong.

So lets look at this by breaking this down.

This SST forecast is for May, and you will notice that at the very
time the models expected Westerlies and lots of warming, it now has
cooling. So the thing that will be different straight away, is that the
Easterlies will not be easing.

And we see the same sort of profile until October, so if we see the
Easterlies dominate until then, chances are we see lower pressure
continue to dominate around Australia as well.

And this will also kill off the IOD from going positive, because the
warmer water will continue to push into the Indian due to these
Easterlies.

So this cooler water looks like it will surface in the next few
weeks, the million dollar question is, does it make the Easterlies
strengthen near South America?

If they do, it is still not out of the realms that we see a weak La
Nina, this possibility has to be explored. And this is where 2018 comes
into play.

I am starting to get a little worried that this may all happen too
fast or too slow, and put us out of sequence for a La Nina in 2018.

If this can happen quickly, we could have a scenario that uses up all
of this cool and warm water by years end, and then allows another
bigger cold pool to trail in for a 2018 La Nina.

If it happens really slowly, we may not see this warm water come up
until mid next year, or autumn at the earliest, and mean we will have to
wait until 2019 for a big La Nina

At this point in time, its impossible to know how 2018 will play out,
as it will heavily rely on how this coming year unfolds. It is still
looking wetter due to everything we have looked at in this post, simply
because low pressure continues to develop.

As you can see above, in July it starts to see surface pressure
higher in Western Australia, and higher surface pressure out East, so
that it is the end of the Positive IOD before it started.

But things get really interesting in September, huge lower then
normal pressure over the country, so this will mean we could see average
weather in September rather than the dry conditions that I had
expected.

it even sees much lower pressure at 500 mb, so our Spring could be
quite different if the CFSv2 is right. Over the coming weeks, we will
see what the other models come in with, I suspect they will be coming
around to a similar scenario.

How our rainfall will be impacted will be the real question, but the
more I am seeing, the more I am thinking that instead of a Decile 3 to 4
year, which is what I have had forecasted since January, its looking
like we will see a Decile 4 to 5 year from here on.

But the important thing to know is, and I know I keep saying it, the
next 3 months rules all. The fact is, no matter how good a forecaster
you are, its impossible to know just how much cool water comes up, and
how this alters the global patterns.

In the coming weeks I cannot wait to see what the other models do,
and how embarrassing it will be for the Jamstec, because I am certain it
will turn its forecast much lower.

I showed this in the Long Range post, the IOD spread for September
shows the BOM is bang on neutral, so expect lower pressure to develop,
so I think once WA breaks with rain it may start to rain a lot.

Clearly EC is on the Thymosin Beta 4, along with the Jamstec, maybe
James Hird is running these two models (sorry Bryan, had to square up!)

With respect to ENSO, models have started to respond, within a month I
think September will look a lot different to this forecast.

If we look at the current satellite photo, the thing to watch is the
low pressure near Indonesia, if the Easterlies continue, this low
pressure should continue to feed in moisture into Northern Australia.

And I think this is going to lead into a wetter period for QLD and
NSW, because this moisture should do a U-Turn as indicated and
continually try to feed into Eastern Australia. Once the cold air starts
to get more regular, so will rain for Eastern Australia.

So if we continue to see Easterlies, then this current pattern will continue to evolve, and warm the Indian Ocean.

Current SSTs shows the higher pressure that is developing off the
South American coast, and this is causing the lower pressure over
Northern Australia.

All that is left now is how much the Indian can warm as a response,
and whether that very warm patch SW of Perth can move close to the coast
of WA. The waters around the East are still warm, so lower pressure
wont be too far away over the coming weeks.

So as for 2018, there is still so much of 2017 to play out that is
very hard to make a call, I want to see warming before the year is out
in the Pacific, and then I will be much more comfortable that the big La
Nina is going to be on.

My forecast for the next 9 months and then next year stands at this
point, I really don’t believe I can change it with any certainty until
July. The next two to three months will determine the next 18 months,
thats how crucial this next period is.

As always though, as things evolve you guys will be the first to know, for the time being no change to the forecast.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

He’s recently hired a casual so he can keep up with the one-on-one messaging and call back service he offers.

Mr
Violi began selling subscriptions to his weather forecasts last March
after attracting a large group of followers to his weekly weather blog.

“I’ve since created a level of service which no one else provides.”

He offers daily updates; four week forecasts and a five month seasonal outlook.

He also pens weekly blog posts focusing on the next fortnight’s weather.

His services range from $20 a month to $45/month.

He said his forecasts are usually closer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s than Elders Weather.

Last
year, he said, rival forecasters initially predicted extremely low
winter rainfall for NSW, Victoria and South Australia. He forecast the
opposite.

“People were asking me if there
was any point planting. I said it would definitely be a wet season. All
my customers then had their biggest harvest ever.”

In general, long-range forecasting services are falling short, he said.

“Right
now, climate models are showing an El Nino for the end of the year. I’m
saying the El Nino won’t happen – instead it will be a ‘warm-neutral’.”

A warm-neutral is where temperatures in the Pacific Ocean don’t reach the threshold required to be called El Nino.

Most
of his clients are clustered in Central West NSW, with the remainder
spread throughout the agricultural districts of South Australia,
Victoria and Queensland.

Mr Violi is a self-taught forecaster.

Until recently he farmed strawberries with his brother and father in the Yarra Valley of Victoria.

“When
the internet took off in the late 1990s there was so much information
online which I had never been able to read in a book, I learnt so much.
From there I was able to put together what I was seeing and how to
communicate it.”

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!

Good
morning all, pop quiz for everyone today. I have attached the SSTs from
today, and also from the same time last year. Something very
significant is noticeable, something that will affect our weather in the
next few years.

The current picture is the first one, one year
ago is the second one. Can anyone see what it is that is very
significant with this? Let me know you thoughts, and if you can pick up
what I have spotted here.

Daniel MarrettLoads more cool water to the Americas more warm our side. Also the Atlantic looks to be massively cooler. Got a sneaky suspicion that the funny SST are what we need for it to happen. Any thoughts?

Anthony VioliDaniel
is the closest, the Atlantic is now showing the signature of a cold AMO
phase, the first signs things are about to change in the next few
years. My take is we will see one more El Nino, either at the end of
this year or next year, then La Ninas will
be back in vogue and we will see plenty of them, and a temperature drop
globally. In essence, when this changes to the cold phase, our weather
will change dramatically to the wetter and cooler phase.

Corey BlacksellAnthony, do you have an analogue period to compare your thoughts with?

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