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Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year

Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for PoliticsJanuary 9th, 2014

We are pleased to announce that U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine, which we will be linking to in the Crystal Ball. His inaugural column analyzes what factors will matter in the 2014 midterm and where the race for the House and Senate stands right now. — The Editors

Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we’ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments — the “game changers” and the “tipping points.” But we all know there aren’t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I’d argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms.