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The environmental study is called "Chukchi Sea Planning
Area Oil and Gas Lease Sale 193 Draft Second Supplemental Environmental Impact
Statement," and it is available on the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management's
Alaska website at:

The section of the study that evaluates the likelihood of large oil spills begins on page 153. That section considers a scenario in which oil and gas is developed and produced from the proposed leases in the Chukchi Sea and describes the method that BOEM used to analyze the likelihood of large oil spills over the lifetime of the potential development. According to page 154 of the study, BOEM's analysis "indicates there is a 75% chance of one or more large spills occurring over the 77 years of the Scenario, and a 25% chance of no spills occurring."

In December 2004, a cargo ship lost power and ran aground in the Aleutian Islands near Dutch Harbor. Tragically, responders and crew were killed during the rescue attempt. The ship broke apart and discharged its cargo (over 60 million metric tons of soybeans) as well as fuel oil, diesel, and other contaminants. Then, of course, there was the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound that resulted in the discharge of roughly 11 million US gallons.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) uses a 15% threshold to define ice-free areas. In other words, if a particular area (or "data cell," in NSIDC parlance) has an ice concentration greater than 15%, that area (or data cell) is considered ice covered. If it has less than that, it is considered ice free. Defining "ice-free Arctic" is less precise. It is not likely that every last bit of ice will disappear from the Arctic Ocean any time soon. Even at the end of the summer melt season, there will likely be some remnant ice in some locations. According to the NSIDC website, many climate scientists use the term "ice-free' Arctic as a shorthand way of saying that there will be very little reflective surface at the end of the summer melt season.