Bangladesh is one of the country's most vulnerable to climate change which also has a very high population density. The combination of a high level of poverty, and a depleted ecological system increase the country's vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, which threatens the development achievements over the last decades.
... انظر المزيد + The increasing risks from climate change, sea level rise, and natural and man-made hazards, such as cyclones, storm surge, flooding, land erosion, water logging, and salinity intrusion in soil and water, already have adversely affected livelihoods of people living in environmentally fragile areas. The objectives of this study are to identify the social and livelihood groups vulnerable to climate change or climate variability; understand capital asset transformation capability of the villagers in potential hotspots; recognize and categorize climate change related hazards facing people in those hotspots; identify a range of adaptation measures in practice; and understand villagers' aspirations and concerns regarding reduction of vulnerability and improvement of livelihoods.
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The purpose of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study is to better understand and estimate the true costs of adapting to climate change in less developed countries.
... انظر المزيد + The study is made up of three components. At a global level, there is an analysis of costs across different economic sectors. At a country level, there is an economic component and a social component, taking place in a set of representative case study countries. Mozambique is one of these countries. The economic component of the Mozambique country study has the objective of identifying a set of robust adaptation options for the country, then comparing the direct costs and benefits of those options. To calculate the costs, the team has utilized a computable general equilibrium method. This method is data intensive, it requires a good model of the national economy, but can generate an estimate of the costs of targeted government interventions, in terms of reduced overall economic growth, once those effects have trickled through the labor and capital markets and the economy has returned to equilibrium. The economic team considered a range of adaptation options, which were gathered from the literature and from interactions with national level policy makers and other stakeholders.
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The study in Bolivia was based on the concepts contained in the document methodology for the social component (October 2008) prepared by the core team in Washington.
... انظر المزيد + These lists the social component objectives as: to develop a methodology for estimating the costs of adaptation strategies at the local level; to identify how public adaptation policies can benefit the most vulnerable members of society; to identify how factors such as socio-economic status, gender and poverty impact on vulnerability to climate change; and to ascertain local perceptions of the costs and benefits of climate change adaptation in different agro-ecological zones. The study was conducted in four phases: 1) preparation: the main objective of the first phase is to collect qualitative, quantitative, and illustrative secondary data related to climate change and to analyze previous studies undertaken in Bolivia on climate change adaptation; 2) sampling: the second phase, which lasted one month, primarily consisted of constructing a climate vulnerability zoning pattern of the entire country to serve as a basis for identifying and selecting areas for study; 3) field work: the field work was undertaken over a period of three months, consisting of three activities: a) designing tools for field work; b) identification, recruitment and training of researchers; and c) information collection in the field through interviews and workshops; and 4) reports: the final phase involved processing and analyzing the information and drafting the final report.
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The social component of the economics of adaptation to climate change (EACC) study employed two approaches in Ethiopia. Participatory scenario development workshops were conducted at community and the national levels to gather qualitative information and data, while a survey of sample communities was conducted for quantitative data-based assessment.
... انظر المزيد + The study found out that climate change and climate related hazards are clearly and significantly felt by the communities at the grassroots level. Climate change effects have been seen in Ethiopia over a long period of time through changes in the environment and natural resources and influences on livelihood activities and the national economy at large; the later largely depends on agriculture, which is especially vulnerable to natural calamities. Ethiopia, there is a general consensus that Ethiopia will see greater climate variability and extreme events in coming decades. Hence, one of the strategies advisable for Ethiopia is management of climate variability. This strategy includes improved management of land resources, including soil, water, and forests. The issue of climate change being so significant, adaptation is a matter for national economic management and long-term direction. Resilience to climate change effects and hazards is not about one or two sectors. Rather it depends on the performance and capacity of the various sectors of the national economy. Hence, multi-sectoral analysis and programming is needed.
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The program's objective is to assist decision makers in developing countries in integrating adaptation measures into national development strategies, policies, and budgets.
... انظر المزيد + The economics of adaptation to climate change is a new research area and no agreed methodology to assess overall costs has yet emerged. The study is intended to help decision makers in developing countries to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change and variability. This requires costing, prioritizing, sequencing, and integrating robust adaptation strategies into their development plans and budgets. Furthermore, this requires strategies to deal with high uncertainty, potentially high future damages, and competing needs for investments in social and economic development. The study is further intended to inform the international community's efforts, including United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Bali action plan, to provide access to adequate, predictable, and sustainable support, and to provide new and additional resources to help the most vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. This report presents important knowledge on Ghana's vulnerability to climate change and various adaptation options that could be integrated into sectoral and spatial planning. It provides the needed inputs for planning a sustainable future. The need to pay attention to community-level actions/responses through direct support and mainstreaming into national policy cannot be overemphasized
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Vietnam is likely to be one of the most significantly impacted nations in the world from climate change, due to its very long coastline, high dependence on agriculture, and relatively low levels of development in rural areas.
... انظر المزيد + The forecasted climate impacts to 2100 will likely be an increase in rainfall in wet seasons and decrease in dry of around 10 percent or more, increased intensity and frequency of storms and floods, and a likely sea level rise of at least 1 meter. Key outputs from the study include: identification of key socioeconomic and biophysical zones of vulnerability to climate change, and typologies of livelihood profiles of areas and communities that are climate vulnerable. Participatory scenarios of adaptation pathways that might be chosen in the future. Workshops on Participatory Scenario Development (PSD) were conducted to identify and categorize adaptation pathways suitable for different livelihood groups. Local assessment of existing and potential adaptation options and practices. These results can help policy makers make better, more inclusive choices about the range of adaptation responses to be considered in the future.
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This report explores the answer to a difficult question: what are the potential costs for coastal adaptation from 2010 until 2050 in response to human-induced climate change?
... انظر المزيد + The work reported here builds on the earlier estimate of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Nicholls 2007) of incremental protection costs in 2030. While these have been improved in a number of aspects, the results remain a preliminary first estimate of the possible adaptation needs and they show that significant further analysis of the topic is necessary. In terms of climate change, sea-level rise is the climate driver that is analyzed; the possibility of enhanced storm impacts due to higher water levels in areas subject to tropical storms and cyclones is also considered as a sensitivity analysis with the high sea-level-rise scenario. The analysis uses the framework of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model to explore the costs of three main protection responses to climate change: sea and river dike construction and maintenance costs; beach nourishment; and port upgrade. These global studies need to be reinforced by national case studies to better understand how adaptation might operate on the ground, including the relationship with wider coastal management and non-climate-change issues.
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The overall objective of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study is to better understand what adaptation to climate change really is and how-without such adaptation-development progress will be threatened and may even be reversed.
... انظر المزيد + The study has two broad objectives. The first objective is to develop a 'global' estimate of adaptation costs. This will aid the international community's efforts to help those developing countries most vulnerable to climate change meet adaptation costs. The second objective is to help decision makers in developing countries better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and create better design strategies to adapt to climate change. These two objectives require any quantitative scientific or economic analysis to: (a) be spatially comprehensive, with globally comprehensive and consistent data sets; and (b) include plausibly extreme climate projections that span the plausible futures. Due to the very large uncertainties of the scientific projections of climate change, it is important that any analysis provide information on the 'tails' or extremes of any probability distribution of future climates. This allows decision makers in developing countries to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change.
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The objective of this technical report is to provide the background to the methodology used to model the impact of climate change on runoff for the global track of the Economic of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) project.
... انظر المزيد + This report will present findings from computer modeling of the impacts of potential climate change on hydrology and water availability (that is, changes in runoff, basin yield, and flooding). Chapter two provides the framework of analysis. Chapter three provides the hydrological drivers and data. Chapter four describes selected climate scenarios. Chapter five provides the runoff. Chapter six describes the basin yield. Chapter seven summarizes the work and discusses future work. The appendixes describe the Climate and Runoff (CLIRUN) model.
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This study is part of a World Bank effort intended, first, to help decision makers in developing countries to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design sector strategies to adapt to climate change.
... انظر المزيد + This study is part of the aggregate track, which has two objectives. The first is to ensure the availability of developing country/regional adaptation cost estimates to contribute to the discussion on climate change leading up to the Copenhagen conference in late 2009. The second objective of the aggregate track to begin to develop procedures that will be needed to generate aggregate adaptation cost numbers once the country case studies are completed. The approach of this forestry study is to draw from the considerable existing literature to provide perspective, as well as estimates and projections of the impacts of climate change on forests and forestry in various regions and countries. Based on the assessment of these projections, adaptation measures are suggested to mitigate damages likely to be incurred and identify adaptations that might be made. Preliminary cost estimates are made. The approach will not involve a new model or new projections. Rather, the study draws from the literature and the results of earlier investigations. This study draws in large part on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) findings and on the literature that went into developing those findings. On average, most of the studies find forest productivity and area increasing modestly.
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Climate change will have large, but still uncertain, effects on agriculture. In this report the authors provide estimates of the impacts on human well-being through effects on agricultural production, prices, and trade.
... انظر المزيد + Two indicators provide the metrics to assess the impacts on human well-being per capita calorie consumption and child malnutrition count. The authors use these metrics to assess the costs of adaptation with three types of investment agricultural research, rural roads, and irrigation infrastructure and efficiency improvement. To provide some idea of the uncertainties inherent in the climate change simulations, two general circulation models (GCMs) using the A2 SRES scenario from the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC et al., 2007) provide the climate inputs to the modeling work. The challenge of modeling climate change impacts in agriculture arises in the wide ranging nature of processes that underlie the working of markets, ecosystems, and human behavior. Analytical framework integrates modeling components that range from the macro to the micro and from processes that are driven by economics to those that are essentially biological in nature. This report with a discussion of the modeling methodology and data used. The second part of the report provides the results of the analysis. An annex provides additional technical details.
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This paper attempts to assess the economics of adaptation to extreme weather events. The author address several questions that are relevant for the international discussion: how will climate change alter the incidence of these events, and how will their impact be distributed geographically?
... انظر المزيد + How will future socioeconomic development affect the vulnerability of affected communities? And, of primary interest to negotiators and donors, how much would it cost to neutralize the threat of additional losses in this context? The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section two provides a summary of losses from extreme weather events in developing countries during the period 1960-2006. In section three, author review recent projections of climate impacts, economic growth, and demographic change. The author focus particularly on projections by integrated assessment models that incorporate links between climate change and economic activity. Section four specifies a set of risk equations for weather-related disasters and estimates them by fixed effects. In section five, author develops country-specific projections for female education. Section six uses our econometric results and education projections to forecast future risks under alternative assumptions about climate change. In section seven, author uses these projections to estimate the cost of reducing future weather related risks through more intensive investment in female education. Section eight summarizes and concludes the paper.
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An approach to estimating the costs of adapting to climate change is presented along with results for major components of infrastructure. The analysis separates the price/cost and quantity effects of climate change.
... انظر المزيد + The first component measures how climate change alters the cost of a baseline program of infrastructure development via changes in design standards and operating costs. The second component measures the effect of climate changes on the long-run demand for infrastructure. The results indicate that the price/cost element is usually less than 1 percent of baseline costs, while the quantity effect may be negative for many countries. This paper presents the results of a global analysis of the costs of adapting infrastructure to climate change over the period from 2010 to 2050. The analysis was carried out as part of the World Bank's economics of adaptation to climate change study. In this context, infrastructure has been given a rather broad definition. It includes the usual types of infrastructure services, including transport, electricity, water and sanitation, and communications. In addition, urban and social infrastructure such as urban drainage, urban housing, health and educational facilities, and general public buildings have been included.
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This study has two objectives. The first is to help decision makers, especially in developing countries, to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change, and to better design strategies to adapt their fishing sectors to climate change.
... انظر المزيد + The second objective is to develop global estimates of adaptation costs in the fisheries sector of countries to inform the international community's efforts, including United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Bali action plan, to provide access to adequate, predictable, and sustainable support, and to provide new and additional resources to help the most vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. Adaptation is here understood to mean any action taken to reduce the risk posed by the impact of climate change in a given sector of the economy, for example, fisheries. Adaptation cost is then the cost of taking such action. This report focuses on marine capture fisheries, not inland or aquaculture, for a number of reasons. In the first place, the study of the impact of climate change on fisheries is more advanced in the case of capture fisheries, so the authors have the necessary basic scientific information on which to base their analysis. Second, marine capture fisheries are still over 50 percent of the total value of global fisheries (capture, inland, and aquaculture) and support a large number of economically vulnerable people in coastal communities of the world, especially in developing countries. Third, there are indications that both inland fisheries and aquaculture are likely to suffer similar challenges identified for marine capture fisheries. Hence, the results from this study can provide insights about the potential cost of adapting inland fisheries and aquaculture to climate change.
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This background paper describes the work carried out on one component of a larger World Bank study entitled The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), whose aim is to estimate the costs of adapting to climate change in developing countries over the period 2010-50.
... انظر المزيد + The overall objective of the EACC study is to help decision makers in developing countries to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study is further intended to inform the international community's efforts, including UNFCCC and the Bali Action Plan, to provide access to adequate, predictable, and sustainable support, and to provide new and additional resources to help the most vulnerable developing countries meet adaptation costs. In section two, the background context of the study is developed, outlining the potential impacts of climate change on water supply and riverine flooding, which regions and population groups are likely to be most severely affected by climate change, and what experience exists in the sectors in terms of adaptation. The authors also provide information on, and examples of, adaptation policies, programs, and projects that can be used to adapt to climate change in terms of water supply and flood protection, thereby addressing aims one and two. A summary of previous research on economic aspects of climate-change-related adaptation in the water sector is provided in section three. In section four, the authors present the methods used to address aims three and four of the consultancy; that is, estimating the costs of adaptation to climate change in terms of industrial and municipal water supply and riverine flood protection. The results of the quantitative assessment are presented and discussed in section five. Finally, conclusions, limitations, and recommendations of the study are presented in section six.
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The present study of the economics of adaptation to climate change follows the sector approach, with separate estimates of adaptation measures for infrastructure, water, agriculture, industrial forestry, fisheries, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems.
... انظر المزيد + However, using the definition of ecosystem services developed by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA 2005), it is clear that most of the services are included in the sector studies either implicitly or explicitly. The sectors addressed in each study take place within ecosystems, and ecosystem services are critical to their functioning even if these services are not identified explicitly. Provisioning services are included explicitly in water; agriculture, industrial forestry, and fisheries sector studies. Regulating and supporting services are used indirectly for the production of goods and services in the sector studies; such as pollination as an input to agriculture, or watershed protection for water supply, hydropower, and agriculture. Although not addressed explicitly in sector studies, projections about the future of these sectors implicitly assume some level of these indirect services.
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This initial study report, which focuses on the first objective, finds that the cost between 2010 and 2050 of adapting to an approximately 2oC warmer world by 2050 is in the range of $75 billion to $100 billion a year.
... انظر المزيد + This range is of the same order of magnitude as the foreign aid that developed countries now give developing countries each year, but it is still a very low percentage of the wealth of countries as measured by their gross domestic product (GDP). A second report, based on seven country case studies (Bangladesh, Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa, and Vietnam) and expected by March 2010, will focus on the second objective. The intuitive approach to costing adaptation involves comparing a future world without climate change with a future world with climate change. The difference between these two worlds entails a series of actions to adapt to the new world conditions. And the costs of these additional actions are the costs of adapting to climate change.
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The social component of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study aims to highlight how vulnerability to climate change is socially differentiated, what elements are needed to strengthen the adaptive capacity of poor people and regions, and how governments can support adaptation that addresses the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable, while maximizing co-benefits with development goals.
... انظر المزيد + In addition, the study draws attention to 'soft' or institutional and policy measures in adaptation, which are well placed to complement 'hard' infrastructure investments. The social component complements the global and sector-specific analyses of the EACC study by bringing the voices of the poor and vulnerable to the analysis to help ensure that climate-resilient adaptation investments best respond to their needs. The study extends the use of participatory scenario analysis to include a focus on local development planning in national contexts, while the fieldwork results present how current coping strategies and policy emphases may guide development of future adaptation measures.
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The report is part of a broader study, the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC), which has two objectives: (a) to develop a global estimate of adaptation costs for informing international climate negotiations; and (b) to help decision makers in developing countries assess the risks posed by climate change and design national strategies for adapting to it.
... انظر المزيد + This paper is one of a series of country-level studies, where national data were disaggregated to more local and sector levels, helping to understand adaptation from a bottom-up perspective. Ethiopia is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Its geographical location and topography in combination with low adaptive capacity entail a high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Historically the country has been prone to extreme weather variability. Rainfall is highly erratic, most rain falls with high intensity, and there is a high degree of variability in both time and space. Since the early 1980s, the country has suffered seven major droughts five of which have led to famines in addition to dozens of local droughts. Major floods also occurred in different parts of the country in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, and 2006. Climate projections obtained from the GCMs referred to above suggest an increase in rainfall variability with a rising frequency of both severe flooding and droughts due to global warming.
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Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Two-thirds of the nation is less than 5 meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding, particularly during the monsoon.
... انظر المزيد + The Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP), adopted by the government of Bangladesh in 2009, seek to guide activities and programs related to climate change in Bangladesh. Until the past few years, climatic risks have been poorly reflected in national policies and programs Bangladesh. The objective of this study is to help decision makers in Bangladesh to better understand and assess the risks posed by climate change and to better design strategies to adapt to climate change. The study takes as its starting point the BCCSAP. It builds upon and strengthens the analytical models and quantitative assessment tools already in use in Bangladesh in support of the research and knowledge management theme of BCCSAP. The scope of this study is more limited than the BCCSAP, so the reported costs represent a lower bound on the total adaptation costs in Bangladesh. The study was developed in four discrete and somewhat independent components with varying degrees of analytical depth and quantification.
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