Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Although Virginia and Florida have fluctuated a bunch in the past few weeks and months, Colorado and Ohio haven't. Since Obama has held a consistent lead in CO and OH, a better prediction would be a 291-247 win for Obama.

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.

DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.

Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.

DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.

Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Total democrat spending (Obama, DNC, and super pacs) has been about $400 million up to June, while republican spending has been about $310 million.

Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.

Not really, dropping his chances by 9% is not some massive amount. And current polls are showing that Obama is trailing there and that his approval is low. It would take a serious mess up by Romney, or a few months of 300k+ job growth to swing the difference.

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.

Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Total democrat spending (Obama, DNC, and super pacs) has been about $400 million up to June, while republican spending has been about $310 million.

I was wrong about the numbers, but not only has Obama spent more, your source includes the spending in the Republican primary. Obama had no real primary, so all his spending was for the general election, where as most of Romneys spending until May was against Santorum or Gingrich

Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.

Not really, dropping his chances by 9% is not some massive amount. And current polls are showing that Obama is trailing there and that his approval is low. It would take a serious mess up by Romney, or a few months of 300k+ job growth to swing the difference.

I can't speak of the approval ratings, but there wasn't a single poll showing Romney up in Colorado until this poll. I would say that a 9% chance is a pretty massive swing for one poll, but that's just my subjective opinion

DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

I predict if Romney wins on the economy, he re-appoints everyone Obama appointed, who coincidentally are the same people Bush appointed. Because in all reality, dems and repubs are the same thing and nothing will change.

"If you are a racist I will attack you with the north"- Abraham Lincoln