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With less than three weeks remaining in 2009, the Army says it has had 147 suicides among active-duty soldiers, eclipsing last year's record.

The disclosure was not a surprise. One of the Army's top commanders last month warned that the mark would be higher than last year's 140 confirmed suicides.

Still, the numbers underscore a grim trend, one the service cannot explain or stop.

"We conduct an exhaustive review of every suicide within the Army," said the director of the Army's suicide task force, Brig. Gen. Colleen McGuire. "What we have learned is that there is no single or simple answer to preventing suicide."

The Army has wrestled with the problem in recent years, establishing the suicide task force and launching a joint five-year study with the National Institute of Mental Health. But the numbers released for November showed 12 more "potential" suicides among active-duty soldiers, and 16 for the previous month.

All the suicides for November are being investigated, while three of the 16 for October have been confirmed, the Army said. So far, 102 of the Army's 147 reported suicides this year have been confirmed, with the others being investigated.

Suicides have risen as the Army's operational tempo has increased, with soldiers making two, three and four tours of the war zone. That has prompted some to believe that repeated deployments are a principal driver behind suicides among active-duty and reserve troops.

But the manager of the Army Suicide Prevention Program, Walter Morales, said no one can yet make the connection between frequent deployments and suicides. He noted that roughly one in every three suicide victims has never gone to the war zone and that others have deployed just once.

"We have analyzed this part of the problem very closely," Morales said. "So far, we just haven't found that repeated deployments and suicide are directly connected."

War nonetheless brings stress on troops, families and posts, as soldiers have repeatedly told the San Antonio Express-News both at home and in Iraq. A post-by-post breakdown of suicides amplifies the point.

-- Fort Campbell, Ky., home to the 101st Airborne Division, has recorded 19 suicides this year, up from 12 in 2008.

-- Fort Stewart, Ga., whose 3rd Infantry Division led the invasion of Iraq in 2003, has had 10 suicides so far, compared with four the previous year.

-- Fort Carson, Colo., has recorded eight suicides in both 2009 and 2008, while figures provided by the Army show that Fort Hood had 11 through November. That is down from last year, when the Central Texas post had 14.

All four posts have played large roles in the Iraq war, with units pulling multiple tours. The 4th Infantry and 1st Cavalry divisions, for example, have been to Iraq three times since the invasion.

Both had been based at Fort Hood until much of the 4th Infantry Division relocated to Fort Carson this year, as required by the 2005 base-closure round.

Not every large installation has seen a rise in suicides. Fort Bragg, N.C., home of the 82nd Airborne Division and XVIII Airborne Corps, had six suicides through November, the Army said, as opposed to 13 in 2008.

Still, a majority of the suicides have come among combat veterans, including reservists. Almost all have been men. Just one woman was among the dozen on active duty to apparently kill themselves in November. Only three of the 147 to commit suicide this year are female.

Like their active-duty counterparts, part-time soldiers, too, have played a big role in Iraq since the occupation began, and suicides are up in their ranks. From January through November, 71 reserve component troops were believed to have killed themselves, as opposed to 50 in the same period last year. The suicides of 41 reservists have been confirmed so far, with another 30 being investigated.

Morales, the Army Suicide Prevention Program manager, said that after close scrutiny, experts think they have to reach out to all troops, not just those who have spent a good part of the past six years at war.

The Army said it is working to improve its suicide prevention programs. It also is testing pilot programs in virtual behavioral health counseling, enhanced behavioral health counseling before and after deployment, and enhanced privacy protections for GIs requesting help for substance abuse.

McGuire, the Army suicide task force director, in an Express-News interview this year, said suicides might occur when problems build to critical mass and shatter a person's "resiliency cap" in the flash of a brief, powerful emotional outburst.

She pointed to problems such as a broken marriage, financial troubles and perhaps pending legal action, triggered by an argument, as a sudden, fatal combination. The problem is, it's hard to know for sure.

"We're only assuming that took place because we can't get inside a person's mind," she said.