Who Are Likely Voters?

Sasha Issenberg finds that citizens are terrible at predicting whether they will vote or not:

One possible reason that regular voters might consistently declare their lack of interest in voting, Aida and Rogers speculate, is “to convey disaffection toward the political process rather than a sincere lack of intention to vote.” The question of whether it’s better to include such people in a poll or just leave them out altogether remains open. “If I can’t trust them to be honest about whether they’re going to vote or not,” asks [Ayres McHenry, who is working for the Our Destiny super PAC backing Jon Huntsman], “how can I trust them on all the other questions I want to ask them?”