As analysts scrambled over the weekend to interpret President Mohamed Morsy’s decrees retiring the head of Egypt’s military junta and reversing its June 17 constitutional putsch stripping the presidency of much of its executive power, assessments veered all over the map: some called it a countercoup or a restoration, in a stroke, of democratic civilian rule; others warned that it marked the declaration of an Islamic state. Sobriety militates against such final or definitive conclusions, however. Indeed, George Washington University Arab-politics specialist Marc Lynch offered a sage tweet-length rule of thumb for analyzing Egyptian political developments: “It’s never as bad as its seems on Twitter.”

Power in Egypt remains in a state of flux, and Morsy has reminded us that we definitively predict outcomes at our peril. The Muslim Brotherhood alumnus had been elected in June to a presidency ostensibly stripped of much of its executive authority by Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) decrees, which were blessed by Egypt’s highest court in an alliance reminiscent of the “deep state” that arose in Turkey during the 1980s, when hard-line secular-nationalist generals and judges claimed effective veto power over democratically elected governments. Morsy looked like a lame duck, who had been set up to fail by a junta aggressively seeking to cement its own direct control over Egypt’s political future.

By “retiring” Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and Sami Annan and reversing SCAF’s June 17 edicts, Morsy has certainly made clear that he’s no lame duck. But even if he’s shaken up the power game within Egypt’s all-too-vaguely defined institutions, it’s far too soon to tell just how much authority he has amassed. There may yet be some pushback from within the military, although initial responses suggest that there’s considerable support even within the junta for kicking Tantawi and Annan upstairs, and none of the signals that the military could respond with a coup. Although reports suggest that the announcement came as a surprise to the two senior men, the field marshal was replaced at the head of SCAF by another member of the junta, the more youthful General Abdul Fattah al-Sissi, who is 57 — 19 years younger than Tantawi. Reuters quoted another member of SCAF, General Mohammed al-Assar, as saying the move had been “based on consultation with the field marshal and the rest of the military council.” This isn’t the first time that members of the junta are making conflicting statements, but it does suggest that the move to replace Tantawi has the support of at least some in SCAF. And by naming Tantawi and Annan as “presidential advisers” and awarding them Egypt’s highest military honor, Morsy appears to be tacitly offering them protection against prosecution.

Still, it would be a mistake to tout Morsy’s moves as a decisive victory in the struggle for power between the military chiefs and the elected government. “The quiet deliberation with which this has been done and the military’s apparent acquiescence, suggests broad internal military support for the move,” notes Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If the military remains quiet, one must assume that a deal has been brokered. The simple triumph of Islamist politicians over military officers would have aroused more resistance in the military.” Even if the generals don’t push back, the judges may yet choose to — although Century Foundation Egypt analyst Michael Wahid Hanna suggests the jurists might be reluctant to act if the generals are acquiescing, lest they provoke a backlash that leaves them isolated. Much will depend, also, on how Morsy handles the political balance of forces in the weeks ahead: having reclaimed control over the process of writing a new constitution, the decisive question may be whether he’s willing to build a broad-based coalition for civilian rule by accommodating the concerns of parties opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood.

So while the President’s lightning offensive has changed the dynamic, Egypt’s political struggle remains a long-term conflict between rival power centers whose outcome won’t be settled for months, or even years to come — and will, no doubt, be the subject of dozens of all-is-lost/all-is-won Twitter emergencies along the way.

Tony Karon is a senior editor at TIME, where he has covered international conflicts in the Middle East, Asia, and the Balkans since 1997. A native of South Africa, he now resides with his family in Brooklyn, New York.

It is totally wrong to assume that ISLAM amp; TERRORISM ARE SAME. In fact they poles apart. Both can not go together. Islam strictly prohibit killing of a person where as terrorist killings are at random amp; indiscriminate. The Qur'an (The holy book of Muslims ) says, " the one who kills a man kills the Humanity" A terrorist can not be Muslim. Mohamed Mursy being a Muslim, he could not support a terrorist or terrorism in any manner. He must be given time to implement his agenda as he is a democratically elected President like Barrack Obama of US. If he is given due support he could easily bring lasting peace in the turmoil Middle East which US failed to achieve even after war in Iraq amp; Afghanistan. The Prophet Muhammad in his last said,

It is amazing all the omnmissions of Islam in an article that is about the ascendence of Islam. when noting Sadat was gunned diown it failed to note Sadat was murdered by some of the supporters in the Muslim Brotherhood that are now running the country. A number of Islamic states on the UN Human Rights commission only last year tried to pass a resolution making it universally illegal and a crime to criticize Islam. The Islamic assault on free speech and expression reached America when they sent a rep to meet with Hillary. It is as if that resoliution already has tacit authroity and the only news we are getting is by willful ommissin by western media outlets to become Shariah Ccompliant. no wonder they missed the onset of Egypt's Arab Spring, the rise of the Muslim Broterhood, Morsi's affiliations with the Brotherhood, and all the rest. Coverage of these events has been horrible: Shariah compliant horrible.

1. Democracy doesn’t come without a deep cultivation of the populace in the paradigm of Equality, Justice, Respect to minority rights, rejection of coercion as an acceptable means to political ends, love of universal peace, personal life and human dignity. In Egypt, the “intellectual Strata” is not committed to these essentials; especially it is hostile to the peace with Israel – so no chance for democracy.

2. Do not get carried away with Western reporters’ interpretation of the reality. This tribe usually sings in unison, making sure they are politically correct, with no critical, objective evaluation of the real state of affairs. At best, they reflect the propaganda their sources want to disseminate.

3. Things are never what you see on TV. Real power struggles take place where no camera is allowed, and no journalist is welcomed. Simple explanations are illusions, at least in countries where “transparent government” is oxymoron. The demonstrators in the square might be sincere, but they do no express the wish of the powerful.

4. Politics is made within the cultural framework of the society. In the ME, the political culture is purely Machiavellian. No trick is too base, no deception is out of limit, and no behavior is too gross when the government is the prize. And the general population believes that it’s the natural flow of politics and there is no hope in resisting the practice.

5. Never underestimate the power of religion. Least of all, the power of Islam. This is the only major religion that did not relinquish its hold on its practitioners to allow liberal ideas take roots. When any religion is not challenged by competing ideology, it will eventually convert honest national feelings into religio-fascist fundamentalism.

the move is not urprise .it is initial step to covert the country into islamic state . it will be worst than iran. themuslim brotherhood has a vicious aganda. their vicious agenda will destroy the country aturn it into anarchy such hppen in afgnstan and sudan . so wlcome to the jungle. the country which name egypt is dead

Interesting about - # 4: Egypt’s Institutions Are Weak and Lack Legitimacy - WELL DAH! A REVOLUTION JUST HAPPENED - HOW MANY YEARS DID THE USA STOOD ON THEIR OWN FEET WHEN WE HAD OUR REVOLUTION FROM THE BRITISH - I BELIEVE 16 YEARS.

WELL, IF MY MATH IS CORRECT - THE REVOLUTION IN EGYPT JUST HAPPENED A YEAR AGO - 2011 - DO THE MATH - AND LETS VISIT EGYPT AGAIN IN THE YEAR 2027......THEN WE CAN JUDGE IF EGYPT'S INSTITUTIONS ARE WEAK AND LACK LEGITIMACY!

All islamic people apologize to all Human Beings for all muslim violence. And we all arab have to make responsible for the Sins of islam. Our arabian prophets are NOT a president. All islamic rules and its past histories are NOT perfect always have its wrongs. The islam have been survived by the real truth from outside islam.

People in Different Geological conditions amp; languages create so many names of local God to survive likes the word of 'Allah' is Our arabian Local God Not Global. That is why the islamic ego is wrong at all that is the monotheism’s egoistic wrongs.

Find the real truth outside the islamic books. Heaven is in your heart. Because inside you there are the house for all truth. It is true that islam is just the past prophets imagination to sustain lives on this world. We all islamic people are Shame for all islamic ego and our selves to be punished by our death.

What surprises me is that the "Top Advisers" of Obama (and others!) have not seen, and still cannot see, that the MB have started infiltrating their own people more than 30 years ago in ALL institutions including the military. That's why it is not surprising what happened with Tantawi and Annan and the army has not reacted. Very naive to think that the army "may" do something in the future. This plan was prepared by the MB long time ago for this day.

to be honest this seems like the best thing that could happen. It seems like the major political players are reaching a stalemate which is the only arrangement which can potentially lead to some form of democracy. If either side amasses the most of the power there is no need to share power and compromise and so they, in all likelihood, will not. That doesn't mean things can't go horribly wrong, that same scenario can lead to a civil war if the evenly match sides cannot form a compromise and as always the stalemate can destabilize.

Things in Egypt are unfolding exactly as PROPAGATED by our PLAGIARIST anti-American Mr.Fareed Zakaria, who has been singing mighty praises of the "so-called" Arab Spring for consumption of naive Americans.

He has been quitely urging the Egyptians to trash the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty SHAMELESSLY calling it a Treaty between Two Regimes and NOT Two Peoples.

On Iran, Mr. Zakaria has been preparing Muslims world-over for possible confrontation with America, by being the FIRST journalist of repute(!!!) of DECIETFULLY saying that "any attack on Iran will be seen as yet another attack on the Muslim world by America", which no othetr Muslim leader has claimed. On the contrary, the Saudis have been secretly urging us to do just that by demanding that America "Cut the head off of the snake" (Meaning Iran).

GOD SAVE AMERICA if the plagiarist Mr. Zakaria ever becomes the next US Sec. of State as it's strongly rumoured to be if Obama comes back to power.

All arab Apologize For The Sins Of Wrong islam amp; its terrorist violence.

All arabian people said:

All islamic people apologize to all Human Beings for all muslim violence. And we all arab have to make responsible for the Sins of islam. Our arabian prophets are NOT a president. All islamic rules and its past histories are NOT perfect always have its wrongs. The islam have been survived by the real truth from outside islam.

People in Different Geological conditions amp; languages create so many names of local God to survive like the word of 'Allah' is our arabian Local God Not Global. That is why the islamic ego is wrong at all that is the monotheism’s egoistic wrongs.

Find the real truth outside the islamic books. Heaven is in your heart. Because inside you there are the house for all truth. It is true that islam is just the past prophets imagination to sustain lives on this world. We all islamic people are Shame for all islamic ego and our selves to be punished by our death.

If in a tunnel, standing between two parallel metal things which seem to run the length in the space and you see a distant light, if you do not first consider it to be a train you are an idiot, well deserving to be liquified when it hits you for taking the time to rationalize it as the other end of the tunnel, a firefly, another tunnel traveler's flashlight or any other thing.

Obama's naive foreign policy and lead from the rear practice (let others do the heavy lifting) may have its roots in his and his cabinet's esteemed academic resumes, but this is the real world and every thing and event needs to be assessed as the most immediate risk potential first, then for what other lesser possibilities may be the fact. He just aided a Trojan Horse into Egypt and likely destabilized the middle east with this turn of events alone, without even needing to mention his fine diplomacy craft regarding Iran, Afghanistan, Israel and Syria.

Same arrogance amp; dictatorship over the world, while you claim democracy guys. So you think it's the USA who should control the world and the rest of us are slaves who should only follow the preferences of our master who literally bought us? Who are you to decide for others? Mind your own business. Well then at least have some guts and stop taking the money from the Middle East and the Gulf, pay for your own arrogance. And you wonder why the rest of the world hates you? it's because of people like you, racists and fanatics. If it has to be, then we prefer our own dictators, but not you. This is really sick and so sad to read.

Same arrogance amp; dictatorship over the world, while you claim democracy guys. So you think it's the USA who should control the world and the rest of us are slaves who should only follow the preferences of our master who literally bought us? Who are you to decide for others? Mind your own business. Well then at least have some guts and stop taking the money from the Middle East and the Gulf, pay for your own arrogance. And you wonder why the rest of the world hates you? it's because of people like you, racists and fanatics. If it has to be, then we prefer our own dictators, but not you. This is really sick and so sad to read.

That is problem with the west, preach democracy and support dictators. practice what you preach. If democracy is not goód for egypt, then shut your mouth. Stop preaching democracy to suit your agenda. If moslem brotherhood wants to destroy their couintry by way of democracy so be it.

Being President is Not about quantity but Quality. If a president just has many supporters but Stupid then it only brings fail. Wrong Irrelevant islamic Histories Must Be Punished amp; Destroyed by Its creators or Its followers as their Responsibilities To Apologize For The True Better Futures. Support the Christian President for the future Egypt.

Because what they do is for their benefit regardless of the results to the people of that country. Let's not talk about democracy because this is only an excuse. If Americans were acting for real good why they approve Saudis actions despite they are one of the less democratic countries in the world ?? Conclusion: stop destroying other countries and look at the s... and corruption you have in USA

The Middle East is a powder keg. The ruling class has lived large for decades while the majority of the people lived in squalor. Add to that the fact that the United States has blindly supported Israel for sixty years, and you have a lot of angry Muslims. To be clear, the time horizon of this epic screw-up wasn't four years. It encompasses every Presidency since FDR.

Being President is Not about quantity but Quality. If a president just has many supporters but Stupid then it only brings fail. Wrong Irrelevant islamic Histories Must Be Punished amp; Destroyed by Its creators or Its followers as their Responsibilities To Apologize For The True Better Futures. Support the Christian President for the future Egypt.

Unfortunately squalor is usually associated with lack of education, which makes these people easy targets for charlatans who promise a better life through radicalism. In my opinion, education is the cure for the world's ills--hatred, poverty, disease--and we should spend more money on that.

What a crock, a couple of over the hill old men were bought off and paid millions and the spin masters start calling it a. Countercoup. The brotherhood/terrorist. Is in charge until the machine gun changes that.

initial responses suggest that there’s considerable support even within

the junta for kicking Tantawi and Annan upstairs, and none of the

signals that the military could respond with a coup."

I suspect that there is much support for Morsi among junior officers. It wasn't that long ago that people worried about the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the junior officer corps. Getting rid of the old generals may have solidified Morsi 's support in the military.