Jonathan Manthorpe: South Koreans calm as Kerry tries to lure the North to talks

Jonathan Manthorpe, Vancouver Sun COLUMNIST04.15.2013

Children with their father use binoculars to watch North Korean territory at the unification observation post near the border village of Panmunjom, that separates the two Koreas, in Paju, north of Seoul, South Korea, Sunday, April 14, 2013. As the world watches to see what North Korea’s next move will be in a high-stakes game of brinksmanship with the United States, residents of its capital aren’t hunkering down in bunkers and preparing for the worst. Instead, they are out on the streets en masse getting ready for the birthday of national founder Kim Il Sung, the biggest holiday of the year.

Related

There is an air here of heightened anticipation, but not anxiety, as North Korea, after months of threatening bombast, marks Monday the 101st anniversary of the birth of regime founder Kim Il Sung.

The prevailing view in South Korea remains that the bellicose posturing from the North is primarily for domestic consumption.

It is taken as a sign that the 30-year-old new young leader, Kim Jong Un, the grandson of the founder who took over after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il in December 2011, is not yet secure in power.

Establishing a reputation for brutality has become a hallmark of the Kim dynasty.

But the regime’s threat to rain down nuclear warheads on the United States is fanciful.

The weight of opinion among U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies is that while North Korea showed at the end of last year that it has a liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile and early this year mounted an apparently successful test of an atom bomb, there is no firm evidence Pyongyang can marry the two together or that they might operate with any reliability.

Another threat, to resume the civil war which was halted only with a truce 60 years ago, is more doable.

But that also explains why South Koreans are showing so little excitement or apprehension as this latest crisis rumbles on. They have lived with this threat for 60 years.

For South Koreans whether Pyongyang has a nuclear weapon or not is largely irrelevant. The North has a huge arsenal of conventionally armed missiles with ranges of up to 200 kilometres.

Seoul is only 40 kilometres from the border. Repeated threats by the North to turn the South’s capital into “a sea of fire” is not an empty one.

But any major act of aggression by the Kim regime is going to result in the last thing he and his courtiers want and that they are trying to avoid: their removal from power one way or another.

However, the only predictable thing about the North Korean regime is that it is unpredictable.

It might use the backdrop of Monday’s celebrations of the birthday of Kim Il Sung to mount the test of an intermediate range solid-fuelled missile.

This is the favourite speculation of South Korean and American intelligence agencies and it worries them.

This could bring Japanese and American bases on Okinawa and Guam within range of North Korean missiles. And because solid-fuelled missiles are portable, much easier to hide and capable of being launched with little preparation, they are intrinsically a greater security threat than liquid-fuel missiles.

If there is a medium-range missile test, perhaps flown over northern Japan as the North Koreans have done before, it is more likely to be done unannounced. A failed flight would be just the wrong message with the birthday celebrations.

And in a four-nation rapid tour of the region in the last few days U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has opened the door wide for North Korea to return to negotiations over ending its nuclear program in return for aid in rebuilding its crumbling economy.

This significant shift came after The U.S. and South Korea engaged in joint military exercises using top-of-the-line weapons such as stealth bombers and nuclear submarines.

These war games alarmed Pyongyang and, in response, U.S. President Barack Obama ordered the cancellation of an intercontinental ballistic missile test and several exercises which might have provoked Pyongyang.

Ending his tour in Japan on Sunday, Kerry called on Pyongyang to “come to the table in a responsible way.”

Those sentiments were echoed by South Korea’s new president, Park Geun-hye, when Kerry came through Seoul on Friday.

And in Beijing on Saturday, Kerry said Chinese officials told him they are “very serious” about lessening tensions in the region and pressing Kim ton give up his nuclear weapons.

Pyongyang’s initial response is not encouraging. On Sunday, the North’s official news agency dismissed the Kelly initiative as a “cunning gimmick.”

The U.S. and Seoul must give up their “hostile attitude” if they want to talk said the agency.

But this is a standard response from Pyongyang to offers, and South Korean officials said Monday they think it is only an opening gambit.

If he wants to, Kim can have his propaganda machine interpret these offers as the U.S. and its allies backing down in the face of North Korean courage and determination.

Both the U.S. and South Korea had to swallow hard before attempting to placate Kim, but they are not yet anywhere near appeasement.

What happens next depends very much on China.

Beijing is Pyongyang’s only reliable ally and China keep the North Korean economy afloat with trade and subsidies.

Until now Beijing has considered a divided Korean Peninsula to be in its own national interests.

North Korea acts as a buffer that keep the U.S. and its allies at bay.

But Beijing is deeply unhappy about North Korea’s apparent success in producing an atom bomb. And China is also concerned that the eccentricity of the Pyongyang court has reached the point when the regime could collapse in chaos.

If Kim Jong Un decides to test the offer of renewed talks with the prospect of economic development, that will almost certainly happen in Beijing with, probably, Chinese officials facilitating meetings between delegates from North and South.

Comments

We encourage all readers to share their views on our articles and blog posts. We are committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion, so we ask you to avoid personal attacks, and please keep your comments relevant and respectful. If you encounter a comment that is abusive, click the "X" in the upper right corner of the comment box to report spam or abuse. We are using Facebook commenting. Visit our FAQ page for more information.

Share

Jonathan Manthorpe: South Koreans calm as Kerry tries to lure the North to talks

A Radio-Canada reporter has been arrested for alleged criminal harassment while pursuing the subject of a story. According to Radio-Canada, reporter Antoine Trépanier was arrested Tuesday night by Gatineau police. He was released on a promise to appear in court. Trépanier was called by Gatineau police Tuesday evening and an officer requested that he come […]

Almost Done!

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.

Postmedia wants to improve your reading experience as well as share the best deals and promotions from our advertisers with you. The information below will be used to optimize the content and make ads across the network more relevant to you. You can always change the information you share with us by editing your profile.

By clicking "Create Account", I hearby grant permission to Postmedia to use my account information to create my account.

I also accept and agree to be bound by Postmedia's Terms and Conditions with respect to my use of the Site and I have read and understand Postmedia's Privacy Statement. I consent to the collection, use, maintenance, and disclosure of my information in accordance with the Postmedia's Privacy Policy.