A Few Off Season Buys and Sells

Back in my own personal dark ages, when I was just playing in re-draft fantasy football leagues, the start of the NFL playoffs was always a tough time. On one hand, the excitement of the games being played on the field was hard to beat. Yet, it didn’t quite feel the same without the personal investment I had with my own team still playing. However, once I wised up and moved into dynasty leagues, this is one of my favorite times of year. Personally, I find the NFL post-season and the first month after the season ends to be the best time to make my trade offers. The other owners in my leagues are still thinking about last year’s performances and a forward-thinking player like myself can take advantage. Here are players that I will be looking to buy and sell this offseason. (Note: all scoring references below assume a PPR league).

BUY

Justin Blackmon – Blackmon had an incredible 4-game run this season (28, 33, 12 and 7 points), but it were those pesky other 13 games that were the real problem. Everyone who owns any stake in Blackmon this year was burned and many will be looking for a safer option moving forward. Blackmon is a risk, that is obvious, but he has clear WR1 talent that can be had at a good price right now. Look to buy before Jacksonville makes a move to improve their QB situation. Blackmon might be the biggest true “boom or bust” player we have seen in fantasy football in a long time, but I would rather have his upside than a back end RB2 or flex option player.

SELL

Demaryius Thomas – DT has had a great season. Through week 17 he only has one single digit output and hit 30 points three separate times. He also showed us, back early in his career, that he can put up strong points without an elite quarterback. Still, his production will take a hit once Manning retires. DT will continue to be productive for years to come, but will he continue to be as productive without Manning checking into those bubble screens that just carve apart defenses? Thomas’s drop in production may not be enormous, but it may be enough to find value. Would I trade Thomas straight-up for Blackmon? No. But Blackmon and a high-upside RB (Zac Stacy, perhaps)? Absolutely.

BUY

Alfred Morris – ALF was commonly going in the early-to-mid 2nd round of start-up drafts before the 2013 season. I fully expect that to drop by at least a full round now, perhaps more. Morris did not have any great performances this year (as of week 17, his best output for the season was 18 points in week 9) and had some downright dreadful outputs (3 points in week 14 and 5 week 12 jump out on the stat sheet). The real question every Morris owner and prospective buyer has to ask is, how much of his performance this year is a result of the overall turmoil that has been going on in the nation’s capital? Morris is a powerful runner and hits the line well. I believe that he benefited greatly in 2012 from the respect that defenses had to show RG3 and will reap that benefit again in 2014 and beyond. There is going to be a lot of uncertainty around all of the Washington players until a new coach is hired. Take advantage of that uncertainty.

SELL

Shane Vereen – I started this article by saying that I find this time of year to be great for trading, but there are always exceptions to ever rule. The off-season usually has one or two players who’s hype just gets out of control (see Wilson, David in 2013). A good fantasy football player recognizes hype from reality and capitalizes on it. Vereen started with a bang in 2013, 22 points week one, and then missed the next 9 weeks with injury. Oddly, this just seemed to help his perceived value, as the fantasy football world spent all that time talking about how great he would be doing if not for his injury. He came back strong as well, peaking with a 34-point performance in week 14. However, part of this success is due to Steven Ridley’s faults more than anything else. The New England Patriots do not have a history of producing long-lived RB1’s and I don’t see any reason for that to change moving forward. As the off-season progresses, I expect Vereen’s hype to grow. Let it. Vereen is a great RB2, but someone in your league will see him as a true top-end RB.

BUY

Ladarius Green – This isn’t exactly a unique opinion, but Green’s size and talent is hard to avoid. He fits the mold of a Gronkoswki and Julius Thomas and the only thing that is standing between him and a potential break-out season is the aging Antonio Gates. Green was on many pre-season breakout lists for 2013 and it just didn’t happen. That doesn’t mean the logic wasn’t sound. Yet, many Fantasy Football owners aren’t the most patient people in the world. Many bought into Green last off-season, just to watch a series of 0’s, 2’s and 3’s come across the stat line. Yes, he did have three straight double-digit games in weeks 11 through 13, but they were quickly followed up with a back-to-back weeks of no points at all. Some will see this as proof that the hype was unjustified. I see it as just evidence that it was a year too early.

SELL

Jordan Cameron – Speaking of tight ends who were hyped coming into 2013, Cameron actually lived up to his. At least, he did to start the season. Cameron started the year with games of 26, 15, 30 and 25. But, then he would only top that 14-point game once over the next 8 weeks. It doesn’t take a lot of time pouring over game film to see what changed after week 4, as Josh Gordon’s return and performance this year has been one of the biggest stories of the Fantasy Football season. Gordon’s gain came with an obvious cost to Cameron. I certainly expect Cameron’s supporters to point to the revolving door at QB for the Browns, but the offense overall has been surprising consistent despite the changes. Cameron has not been. The best thing a Cameron owner can hope for is another slip-up by Gordon and a full year suspension. Not exactly what I want to be hoping for, as a fantasy football player.

BUY

Ben Roethlisberger – The Steelers had a disappointing year (despite being one missed call in San Diego away from making the playoffs). There are a lot of young, high-profile guys that people want as their starting quarterbacks. I understand the infatuation with young talent and high upside. Yet, Big Ben finished this season as QB8. I know in a couple of my leagues I saw him sitting on the bench as players started Russell Wilson (QB9) and Brady (QB12). Fantasy football is about finding value, regardless of how sexy the name. Big Ben had a great season and I don’t doubt that he has a few more seasons in him.

SELL

Andrew Luck – Luck was one of a number of impressive rookie signal-callers in 2012. Entering 2013 I had high hopes for him, but he looked like basically the same quarterback to me. It certainly could have been worse (RG3, as an obvious example), but I expect to see some significant growth from year one to year two in a quarterback. Luck is on pace to finish the year as the 10th most productive QB (he was 9th overall in 2012), yet will almost certainly be one of the first 5 QBs taken in upcoming start-up drafts. Clearly, he is being valued based more on his youth and upside than his performance on the field. While he may live up to that value someday, he just isn’t worth the QB1 price tag he is wearing these days.

One of the challenges that many new dynasty fantasy football players face is separating relative value from absolute value. The fact that I am buying Morris and selling Vereen doesn’t mean that I think that Morris is the better running back. It just means that I believe I can get more production from him than his current price would suggest and, in turn, I can get more production back for Vereen than I would see him produce for my team. There are a lot of fantasy football players who don’t understand this. Find these guys in your league and take advantage!

The end of every fantasy football season is always bittersweet. Every year has its ups and downs, excitements and frustrations. But , don’t morn the end of your 2013. Relish the start of your 2014 season!

Good article. Luck is an absolute stud though. Not a good sell. He’ll eventually get more weapons and dominate. As of now he’s putting up great numbers without them.

David Rosenthal

Thanks for reading, and there are definite arguments for Luck, and he looked great last weekend. I think that, though, there are enough guys that will overpay for him right now that it is worth selling. Any player can be a sell, regardless of how good he is, if he is at his absolute peak value. I think that Luck probably is right now.

That doesn’t mean I don’t think he isn’t a stud or won’t be a great QB for a long time. But, if I can get a strong return for him right now, I am doing it.

sixshooter

I have to agree with Ben, Luck as #6 in QB’s in our league and DeMaryius Thomas was #3 at WR when it came to fantasy pts. Why in the world would you give that up in a young guy that you should be able to count on for years to come. Yes, Manning will not be around forever or even next year but guys like Thomas find a way to get it done. Just look at what guys like Josh Gordon or even Justin Blackmon are able to do without a good QB! Not a chance I would recommend getting rid of talent like Luck or Thomas. Not unless you are recommending trade raping another team and getting a Drew Brees or AJ Green in addition to another player/picks in return. Otherwise….why??? Sorry but I just don’t get the strategy behind moving a young, top end player and listing them as a “sell”. I would much rather sell an aging Calvin Johnson who had 1.2 more fantasy pts than DeMaryius Thomas!

RS

How can u expect Luck to progress when his top WR is out the second half of the year, and he is left with young guys in the WR corp. I like TY but he is def not a true WR1

wow

Blackmon and Stacy for DT… WTF are you talking about

Dan Dynasty Football

Blackmon is going in the 5th at the in current Mocks. Stacy in the mid-late 2nd. DT in the mid to late 1st. Its a completely reasonable ballpark offer. Blackmon in the 5th is only b/c there is always one owner that believes in him. Most won’t even get close touching him till the 7th or 8th. Again making this a completely reasonable offer. Would I do it… heck no, but I love high risk high reward players and wouldn’t sell Blackmon low. But then again not everyone values players exactly the way we do. Top 5 WRs are the biggest premium in this game. They are the most dependable and long lasting players. My guess is the team trying to get Blackmon and Stacy would need to add something smaller with DT to pull it off..like a late 1st or a RB like PT or Woodhead.. something of usable value, but its fair from outlandish.

David Rosenthal

Thanks for the read. Really, seeing response like this are part of what I love about fantasy football. I don’t want the other owners in my league to agree with me on player value. If that was the case, we would hardly ever get to make any deal. If you owned Blackmon and Stacy I bet I could offer you DT for those two and a pick and we would both feel like we got a great deal. Who knows, maybe Blackmon slips up again, gets suspended, I draft a bust and it turns out to be a terrible move for my team. On the other hand, maybe Blackmon becomes the WR1 he can be, Stacy keeps improving and I get a starter out of the pick.

I know there are a lot of people out there who love to “fleece” other owners in trades. I think it is great when I can find another owner that I disagree with on value and we can both come away feeling like we really got the better end of the deal.

sixshooter

Sorry but I wouldn’t give up a #3 overall, proven receiver for Blackmon and Stacy. I have a pair which allows me to avoid this kind of temptation. As Dan states below, we all value talent differently and it would take a little more than those two to get DT in my opinion but maybe not if you find a gullible owner! Blackmon is able to produce with a crappy QB but he is no where near DT in overall value in my opinion and I am not the worlds biggest fan of Stacy. You should have to pay more than that for a top 3 WR.

Josh Gordon

Love the example. I am upside guy and would take blackman and stacy seven days a week and twice on sunday. But then again, i have a pair and dont mind rolling the dice.

Jen

I traded Cameron for Eifert and Ball.

Eric Hogue

Short version: Cameron averaged 12.2PPG in 5 games with Gordon starting and Campbell not starting, nearly identical to the 13.2 he averaged in 2 games without Gordon and Campbell. Campbell is the obvious cause because when he stepped in as starter Cameron dropped to 5.8PPG.

I’m a Cameron and Gordon owner and have been more interested in the Browns offense than is healthy. I see the big difference for Cameron being the switch to Campbell, not Gordon coming back. In the 7 games before Campbell, Cameron had 51 catches on 63 targets, including 15 RZ targets, for 515 yards and 6 TDs (12.5 PPG). In the 8 games after Campbell took over Cameron had 35 catches on 55 targets, including 4 RZ targets for 402 yards and 1 TD(5.8 PPG). The 5 weeks when Gordon was playing and Campbell wasn’t Cameron had 31 catches on 43 targets, including 11 RZ for 312 yards and 5 TDs(12.2PPG).

Based on the above numbers, Gordon doesn’t drain Cameron’s stats one bit with RZ targets(2.2) and YPC(10.1) being almost freakishly identical and overall targets only dropping from 10 to 8.8. The real damage for the second half of the season came from Cameron going from over 2 RZ targets per game to .5 RZ targets per game when Campbell took over as well as the catch% dropping from the 70’s/80’s to the low 60’s.

I have Cameron as a BUY based on the premise that either Hoyer or a QB from the draft will supplant Campbell and that people will look at the 2nd half of the season as you did. Of far greater concern is that Chudzinski’s TE-heavy system left, but I find it hard to believe that whoever the new coach is won’t utilize Cameron as a move TE, especially since his blocking is garbage.