Public Opinion Issue Intensity Leans Republican, Except When it Comes to the Environment

In 9 of 15 issues examined in a recent AP-GfK Poll (pdf), more Americans who expressed intense interest in an issue voiced strong opposition to Obama’s work on it, including the economy, unemployment, federal deficits and terrorism.

Respondents were about evenly split over the president’s efforts on five issues and strongly approved of President Obama’s direction on only the issue of “U.S. relationships with other countries.”

In terms of the poll’s significance come November, the results might be a little troubling for the Democrats. According to the AP, “Most Americans extremely concerned about 10 of the issues say they will vote for the Republican candidate in their local House race. Only those highly interested in the environment lean toward the Democrats.”

While the results may seem striking, it is important to note that individuals with the strongest intensity of views represent a minority of the population, ranging from one in 11 to 33 percent, depending on the specific issue.

But intensity of opinion is also an excellent indicator of likely voter turnout as people with the strongest political beliefs are also the most likely to cast a ballot.