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No east coast gas shortfall until 2030: AEMO

AFTER the hysteria of the past year, peaking in September when the Australian Energy Market Operator and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission predicted a 54-107 petajoule shortfall in the east coast gas market this year and the attendant threats of export restrictions, it seems all is well.

The Gas Statement of Opportunities released today by AEMO says "no supply gaps are forecast before 2030 under expected market conditions".

AEMO has claimed a number of reasons for this - the supply from the Northern Gas Pipeline due online in December was not factored into earlier predictions thanks to various uncertainties- but the one the government is latching on to is Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism, which would have stopped exports should supply have dipped too low domestically.

The ADGMS provided "an incentive for LNG producers to manage their production and exports to ensure adequate domestic supply," AEMO said.