Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Time for voting again...

North Carolina's on deck for one of our polls this coming weekend and the other is your choice between:

-Arizona. I still feel a little iffy about including Gabrielle Giffords in a poll but there's not much point in doing one on the Arizona Senate race without her so if that's what folks vote for then that's what we'll do.

-Iowa. It's been over three months now since we polled Republican voters in Iowa so we're about due to do another comprehensive poll there akin to the one we did in New Hampshire last week.

-New Mexico. Haven't polled it since it became an open seat, my sense is that this race is much less of a toss up than people are giving it credit for (we found Martin Heinrich up 50-39 on Heather Wilson the first weekend of February) but maybe it's tightened since Jeff Bingaman's retirement.

-Nevada. Another one that we haven't polled since the incumbent announced his retirement, and of course it's also likely to be an important state once again in the Presidential race.

Voting's open until about 4 PM Wednesday and then we'll open up a thread for suggestions on what to poll in the winning state, as well as what to ask about in North Carolina. And if you have North Carolina ideas already feel free to go ahead and post them here.

15 comments:

I ask about this every time and they never do it but I really want to see what a Hagan vs Dole rematch would yield, just a thought since poll so much other miscellaneous unnecessary stuff in North Carolina.

Four good choices this time. I think it's time to go ahead and poll Arizona, but New Mexico and Nevada are interesting too. Iowa, not so much, because I'd be fairly sure that the results will come in with a similar mix to other midwestern states. Maybe Trump might add some interest, but I'd still find any of the three Senate races more illuminating.

For NC, we're now in the thick of budget season, maybe something about extending the temporary sales tax (more or less what Gov. Perdue wants to do) vs. deep(er) cuts. Treasurer Janet Cowell seems to be going places, would be curious about her favorables/approvals/etc. Former Gov. Jim Hunt has been active in trying to save Smart Start (his baby) from cuts, would be interesting to see where he stands with NC. Could he be the Dems secret weapon? Maybe a question about what NC voters think about potential cuts to economic development incentive programs like the One NC Fund. Do voters like those? Know what they are? Do they care?

I see that Iowa is winning. Assuming it wins in the end, I'd be curious to see a gubernatorial do-over, since Iowa is not a united Republican government.

I'm curious whether his ten-point victory over the incumbent has been erased under even those circumstances. And, given that so many GOP govs are failing a do-over, I really wonder whether seemingly progressive Democrat Mark Dayton is faring well or ill in Minnesota- especially in a do-over.

In other words, I'm curious whether Democrats are causing buyer's remorse too. After all, the GOP line is that all the short honeymoon periods are just what happen during budget time.

I guess they've both lost at this point, but a plea for people to support New Mexico or Nevada next time around: Both are states with VERY hot open Senate races about which little to no reliable polling has been done, and both are crucial swing states at presidential level. George W. Bush won both in 2004, and Obama winning both would put him in a strong position - even if he lost places like Ohio and Florida.

I voted for Iowa, but I now support Nevada, since Shelley Berkley is offically running for the U.S. senate. Now we know that the likely match-up will likely be Heller vs. Berkley. Hopefully, a late surge for Nevada.