U.S.-North Korean Atom Accord Expected to Yield Dubious Results

By DAVID E. SANGER,

Published: January 9, 1994

SEOUL, South Korea, Jan. 8—
Even if the Clinton Administration completes its long-brewing deal with North Korea to reopen seven nuclear sites to international inspection, diplomats and intelligence officials say the limitations on the first round of inspections virtually assure that nothing new will be learned about how close Pyongyang has come to making a nuclear weapon.

Experts say the inspections, heralded by the Administration as a diplomatic triumph, will probably prevent the Communist Government of Kim Il Sung from diverting more nuclear material from its reactors to its weapons project.

That is especially important as the North Koreans prepare to shut down their biggest reactor and change the fuel rods, an opportunity for them to gain more nuclear fuel for a bomb. Months of Negotiations

But the new inspections, won after 10 months of negotiations, simply restore the situation to where it was a year ago, when the International Atomic Energy Agency first found evidence that it was being deceived by North Korea.

The agency officials will still be barred by Pyongyang from conducting special inspections of suspected nuclear sites that North Korea has not declared part of its atomic program. The agency's demand for special inspections touched off the crisis last year. Two Biggest Questions

Not until those inspections are conducted is there much chance of answering the two biggest questions about North Korea's nuclear program: How much plutonium, the element at the core of nuclear weapons, has North Korea already produced, and are American intelligence agencies right when they say that Mr. Kim's scientists probably have already pieced together a crude nuclear weapon?

"We know nothing more than we knew last spring," a senior South Korean official lamented here the other day, referring to the period when North Korea threatened to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and halted all inspections. "And by some measures, you might say we know less." U.S. Insists It Is Not Backing Down

Administration officials insist that they are not backing down from President Clinton's pledge that "North Korea cannot be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb." In a briefing this week in Washington, Lynn Davis, the Undersecretary of State for International Security Affairs, disputed reports suggesting that the Administration was softening its position in order to keep North Korea talking.

"Our objectives are as they've been from the start, and that is to gain the North's full cooperation," including inspections of any sites that the International Atomic Energy Agency believes will shed light on Pyongyang's past nuclear activities, she said. "In no way will we change those goals."

But in reality, diplomats here say, it will be virtually impossible to be sure that the bomb project has been halted, much less reversed.

North Koreans are known to be master tunnel builders. Several tunnels big enough to drive tanks through were secretly dug underneath the heavily armed demilitarized zone in apparent preparations for any eventual attack on South Korea, and most experts presume some part of the North Korean nuclear sites are underground as well.

"You have to take a pragmatic view," one Western diplomat involved in the issue said. "Finding a bomb in an environment like that would be a little like trying to find a subway token you dropped somewhere on the IRT." Special Inspections Are on Back Burner

For now, the Administration has put the question of special inspections on the back burner, saying its first priority is to force North Korea to resume compliance with the basic elements of the nonproliferation treaty.

But the State Department and South Korean leaders say the special inspections will be a major part of the next phase of talks. That phase is the one in which the United States and North Korea are expected to discuss a package deal involving broad access to Pyongyang's nuclear program in return for diplomatic recognition from the United States, expanded trade and possibly some foreign aid from countries including Japan and South Korea.

But even while they acknowledge that North Korea is showing more flexibility, some American and South Korean officials here are beginning to say that the next round of talks could drag on for months, giving Mr. Kim even more time to build a bomb.

And it could take years to find the truth about the nuclear project, in part because both sides, for different reasons, are so eager to avoid confrontation.

Many involved in the talks now believe that North Korea will try over the next months to stave off sanctions by the United Nations Security Council by allowing just enough access to its sites. Meanwhile, Pyongyang will try to benefit from the uncertainty surrounding its nuclear program, hoping that the fear it may have the bomb will prove as valuable as the bomb itself.

At the same time, Washington and its Pacific allies seem increasingly inclined to embrace the view that it is not worth risking a potentially devastating military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, especially when dealing with a country like North Korea whose crippled economy may soon collapse. But they insist they are willing to impose sanctions if diplomacy fails. White House Faces Increased Criticism