Is Yemen going to the dogs?

MEMBER

The war in Yemen is rapidly unravelling and all indications are that the country might go the Syrian way. The government controls the south and is only making little progress against the Houthis who control the north. Added to the mix is the prescence of different terrorist groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda which have started to sow havoc using terror and asymmetrical warfare. International players are being sucked in with the proxy war betweed Iran and Saudi Arabia threatening to spark a major conflagration. The balkanization of Yemen is not a wild thought. Or, is it?

NEW RECRUIT

There's no reason to think that Yemen's sectarian or political conflicts will subside. The Saudi coalition has been successful in killing large numbers of enemy combatants, but there is no shortage of replacements. Yemen, like Iraq before it and Syria contemporaneously, demands a political solution. No matter how man sorties or ops you run, no matter how many leaders you kill, there will be plenty of volunteers to step up to the plate.

The most perplexing part of creating a political solution (like a power-sharing agreement or de facto confederalization) is that it itself is predicated on the economic situation improving. When you have Somalis leaving Yemen to go back to Somalia to find work, there is a problem that no agreement or cease-fire can fix.

Of course, virtually none of the players are interested in dealing with these issues. Tehran is happy to let Riyadh and the GCC bleed away manpower and money. Saudi has staked a great deal of its international image on some version of success in Yemen, but they lack the tools and institutional infrastructure to see it through. The al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates are like pigs in slop with the chaos and recruiting opportunities. The US (and by extension most of the West) is suffering from decision paralysis at several key points, not the least of which being the policy this or the next White House chooses to back.

My recommendation is to wait on the scenic vacation to Aden. While things might not get exponentially worse, I expect that they will settle into a state of being very bad in the near and mid-term.

Iran wanted to use Houthi's as means to ease pressure off regime in Syria back when the Syrian opposition was making progress, prior to Russian intervention. Houthi's had embarked on a risky campaign to take over the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. They succeeded, and the Saudi's worried that those efforts will be directed further south. A supposed ISIS bombing hit Houthi's mosques killing over a 100 people, that caused the Houthi's and ex-Yemeni government army members to conquer much of the west/southern provinces of Yemen. Which meant Saudi's had no other choice to intervene militarily, otherwise risk all of Western Yemen to the Houthi-led Alliance. That would allow Iran to build up military assets in that region for future blackmailing or threats against Saudi Arabia.

So the Saudi led campaign began with the usual infrastructure targeting, while scrambling to organize force on the ground as they were in a rush. UAE also played a role here, but was skeptical of what this force should entail, as it did' want the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood to gain any influence. All while supporters of the Brotherhood in Yemen were upset that the organization was being very passive in its approach. Leading some of them to rethink their allegiances, and some subscribed to AQAP or ISIS agenda. Once this pro-Hadi force was formed, it seemed there were internal disputes.

And you see almost a weekly if not daily basis of bombings targeting Yemeni officials(pro-Saudi coalition) in Aden. All of these have been attributed to ISIS, although I would suggest otherwise. Maybe some of them are genuinely committed by ISIS, others have to be internal disputes or disputes between Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. Then you have the Taiz Offensive which has not heeded results. Some rumors state this is because it will strengthen the Muslim Brotherhood, and therefore the coalition doesn't want to overly support them.

Regarding the current state, the Houthi-led Alliance is able to hold ground in major cities they control that matter to them in the north, northwest, and midwest of Yemen. The Saudi led forces are conducting offensives as well, but AQAP and ISIS seem to follow them everywhere they go. AQAP controls a lot of small towns to the East, and is also fighting for Aden, while ISIS is low-key but conducting assassinations and bombings. It seems that to the people of Yemen, none of the parties appeal to them. And some may choose the lesser 'evil', by 'less evil', I don't mean a group they consider least hardline. I mean groups that are least corrupt and appear independent.

Which is why I see AQAP and ISIS will be difficult to subdue in Yemen, but the Houthi-led and Saudi-led alliances will be more distracted by each other and their personal interests, and allow AQAP and ISIS to have larger presence. If the rate of the conflict remains as it is. It is almost now a race for territory, and I don't believe any party will utterly overcome the other. Only AQAP and ISIS will benefit from chaos, unless the other parties put forth proper solution or alternative for the people. They will however be stubborn.
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The camps of the region and overseas need to take a step back, stop plotting in dangerous manners, as they are making life miserable for everyone while giving hardline groups credibility.

MEMBER

Another problem arises and this time it is Yemen. This is not being superstitious but I see that all over the world, countries are beset by the rebel issues. In Afghanistand and other Asian countries to Libya and other African countries not to mention the middle easter nations. Is the end of the world coming? The Philippines is a small country but there are so many rebel groups like the NPA, MILF, MNLF, BFF, Abuy Sayyaf. I wonder why those rebel groups are breeding worldwide. Is there something wrong with the system of government?

MEMBER

Again problems.? This is endless and even Yemen now. I watched the news this morning and only problems all around the globe. I think this just too much with all the terrorism and as someone said here, rebel groups. Even the binary military timeless conflict between the west and the east. It is all very bad and it seem that it is working as a virus. It is spreading and it attracts more turmoil and bad things. I mean even in my country we have some issues on the elections and I think people of Serbia might react badly this time.

MEMBER

Yemen went to the dogs quite some time ago. When war broke out along historical cleavages of the north and south with the former president nearly killed, analysts concluded that Yemen had embarked on the great slide. Added to this fact is the issue of the country being awash with all posts of weapons. There is a proliferation of militant groups like ISIS. The Houthis had installed a measure of normalcy but the Saudis backed by the Americans trashed this to spite the Iranians and resorted to the military option instead of launching a tentative process aimed at national integration.