ALEX BRUMMER: A US trade deal would doubtless be a good thing. But it is not essential

Efforts by successive American presidents to denigrate the chances of a UK-US trade deal, in reality, are wholly unthreatening.

Barack Obama, thinking he was being helpful to David Cameron's Remain cause, clumsily wanted to put Britain at the 'back of the queue'.

Now Donald Trump, thinking he is being helpful to the hard-line Brexiteers, says Theresa May's plan could harm a UK-US trade deal.

Donald Trump, thinking he is being helpful to the hard-line Brexiteers, says Theresa May's plan could harm a UK-US trade deal

The bigger question is why does Britain need a trade deal with the United States at all? Of all the non-EU nations in the world, the country where UK plc does best is in the US. Our trade surplus with the US, at £36billion, is the healthiest in the world.

British businesses, whether in services, consumer goods, pharma and much else, do very well there.

The UK's largest cash exporter, Diageo, with its rich array of upmarket bands led by the forever golden Johnnie Walker, has 25 per cent of its turnover in the US and is blissfully undeterred by trade barriers.

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The UK's financial services industry, ranging from the Prudential's Jackson Life to Lloyd's of London and Barclays, are all big players in the US.

The duty on car imports into the US, at 2.5 per cent, cannot be considered a major impediment to selling the Americans the Mini, Jaguars or the Land Rover, all of which have a certain cachet in the US's crowded motor market.

The enormous scare story put about by devoted Remain supporters is that if the UK were to have its own trade deal with the US, our shops would be flooded with chlorinated chicken and genetically altered beef.

Aside from questions about whether chlorinated chicken is so bad – after all, few complain about chlorine in tap water – if we didn't have a trade deal with the US, it would be possible for our food regulators to keep unsuitable chickens out.

One suspects, however, that much of EU food regulation is as much about protecting French farmers and Danish pig producers as hygiene standards.

What would be really valuable for post-Brexit Britain is trade deals with those countries with high tariff barriers originally put in place to protect 'infant' industries which are now full grown. India and Indonesia, two of the world's most populous countries, are a case in point.

A US trade deal would doubtless be a good thing, cementing existing strong ties. But it is not essential.

Melting down

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is forever warning about the long-tail of climate change risks and how it could impact on the finance sector.

The current troubles at Britain's oldest travel brand, Thomas Cook, provide a graphic example of why finance ignores climate change at its peril. Some robust accounting by auditors EY, which helped Cook clean up its balance sheet, is partly responsible for the calamitous 22 per cent slump in the share price. But the trading position is not much better.

In the recent past, Cook has been full of self-congratulation over its operational speed, which saved it from disaster when terrorism hit North African tourism and it switched travellers to Spain. But over- ambition is the current problem. Strong early booking led it to increase flight and hotel capacity. Then along came the heatwave, and clients decided to stay at home.

Chief executive Peter Fankhauser is seeking to weatherproof the firm by shrinking capacity for 2019, linking with Expedia to offer cooler locations and backing new concepts such as Cook's Club, which take the designer room and 'street-food' route.

Perplexing for investors and bankers alike is a debt pile of £389million, when the company's market value is £578million, and borrowings two-and-a-half times operating profit. The banks have been reassured and financing is said to be in place until 2022.

But the lenders, like Cook itself, are getting direct exposure to climate risk.

Shouting match

The London Metal Exchange is the last bastion of open-outcry trading in the City, where traders confront each other arrayed around a ring rather than on flickering screens.

But the number of trading firms has slumped to just nine from a peak of 30 in the 1980s. So it is encouraging to learn that derivatives dealer Sigma Broking is in negotiations to step into the ring.

It will be the first arrival for more than a decade, when Man Group joined the market. That's one way of combating the cyber-crime threat.