THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF KEARNEY
NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW N OF GLD WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH S-CNTRL/SERN NEB. THE RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE WRN EXTENSION OF A 50+ KT SLY LLJ WHICH WILL
ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR AND AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. AS
SUCH...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS AND STRONG
ROTATION. A NEW TORNADO MAY DEVELOP AT ANY TIME.

* AT 615 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
OF VEHICLES LIKELY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 241 AND 266. THIS
INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SALINE COUNTY.

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

* AT 615 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF BROOKVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION
OF VEHICLES LIKELY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 241 AND 266. THIS
INCLUDES INTERSTATE 135 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 95.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE PREVIOUS TORNADO WARNING THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR SALINE COUNTY.

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

AT 606 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARQUETTE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MAJOR HOUSE AND BUILDING DAMAGE LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED. MAJOR POWER
OUTAGES IN PATH OF TORNADO HIGHLY LIKELY. SOME ROADS
POSSIBLY BLOCKED BY TORNADO DEBRIS. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF
VEHICLES LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINDSBORG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY
TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE
TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A moderate risk of severe weather has been issued for Wisconsin. As of now, it appears that the main cause of severe weather is to be wind damage, with this quote from the SPC's outlook:

...SYNOPSIS... A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...WITH A 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY ERN KS INTO SRN WI BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SD/NEB INTO SRN MN...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN IA AND INTO ERN TX. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AS FAR N AS NRN WI. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTENSE WIND FIELDS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LINES OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM TX INTO AR.

This will be the same piece of energy currently making for a potentially deadly tornado outbreak today, so this should be closely watched.

A Particularly Dangerous Situation, or PDS, tornado watch has been issued for north Oklahoma and central Kansas.

Probabilities in the above graphic indicate a 'High' likelihood of tornadoes, even a high likelihood of EF2+ tornadoes. Thunderstorms are erupting in central Kansas. With instability and rotation in place, expect these storms to go supercellular, if they are not already.

This watch expires at 6:00 PM CDT.

Repeat: This is a PDS Tornado Watch, meaning that these storms may threaten life and property. Plan accordingly.

A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center over North Texas, the Oklahoma panhandle, and southwest Kansas as towering cumulus clouds appear to be signaling the start of today's convection.
With the dryline only a little ways away from this mesoscale discussion, and dew points/instability rapidly rising in and to the east of this discussion, any convection that does start up will quickly become strong/severe and may have some rotation as a jet streak progresses eastward.

The Storm Prediction Center extended the High risk to cover much of the Plains, as convection looks to be coming along easier than first thought.
The main risks remain tornadoes and large hail before storms turn more linear and it turns to a damaging wind threat.
Expect main convection to occur in the afternoon.

There is a 45% chance of tornadoes within any given point today in central and eastern Nebraska as a strong storm system's winds combine with the wind field of a warm front to initiate tornadic thunderstorms and supercells. Further south, there remains a 30% chance for tornadoes, just slightly lower, but still very high where tornadoes can be anticipated.

The latest sounding from OUN (Norman, Oklahoma) indicates some pretty stunning things. First, we have over 3000 j/kg of instability- a lot of instability to work with. The Supercell index is over 16, which is very high. Even more concerning is in the bottom right, where analogues to previous soundings are matched against this one. From that, 9 other soundings matched up with this one, two of them described as 'Significant' supercells. Using the bottom pink wording, one can deduce that there would theoretically be a 62% chance for a tornado if the sounding could predict the future.

A strong, amplified 300mb jet stream will be pushing eastward, adding a lot of energy to the system responsible for this event. The system will be up near Nebraska. Increasing the system strength increases the surrounding wind field, thus increasing rotation and instability potentials. The storms will begin when the dryline begins to shift east to try and escape the oncoming cold front from the west (which will not happen). With up to 3000 j/kg of instability and over 3 on the EHI index, expect storms that form to quickly become tornadic.

Initiation, or the initial occurrence, of these storms has been sort of a gray area in recent days. Here is the latest initiation graphic from the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)'s personal WRF model.

I have circled the area where the strongest storms are expected to be at 7:00 PM CDT tonight. Now, this is what I see as the initialization of strong to severe storms. But see below's actual initiation graphic.

Actual initialization is expected in west or central Oklahoma around 4-5 PM CDT, as the dryline edges east and the cold front moves even faster east than the dry line is.
Here is my tornado graphic.

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