Regression favors the Angels

I'll be honest: I simply can't explain the calculations in this Beyond The Box Score post without tying myself in knots and probably putting everybody to sleep. But long story short: If every team's offensive "luck" -- basically, deviation in batting average on balls in play -- resorts to neutral this year, the Angels might expect an extra 11 runs of offense out of their regulars; while the Rangers might expect to lose 39 runs of offense from their regulars -- the most of any team in baseball. In other words, the Angels hit into a small amount of bad luck last year (partly explaining down seasons by Aybar and Kendrick), while the Rangers hit into a ton of good luck, and luck doesn't usually persist.

It's something.

UPDATED: BigGame48 did a player-by-player look at the Rangers and luck, and similarly found that Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and Adrian Beltre are due some regression. The rest of the Rangers hitters are due for small upticks or about the same performance, if everything stays the same besides "luck."

More on the Angels: [rssfeedme cat="fromthedugout" feedpath="/category/angels/feed/" max="6"]

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