Friday, January 20, 2017

You know the theory of contrary sentiment. It tells us that
when investors become too optimistic the stock market will decline. And vice
versa.

One recalls that soothsayer Paul Krugman greeted the
announcement of the Trump victory by saying that the stock market was declining
and would never recover. It took a matter of hours to prove this most confident
of polemicists to be wrong. If that does not flood your mind with Schadenfreude
consider that George Soros lost a billion dollars betting against Trump.

Now, Donald Trump takes over the American presidency at noon
today with a very low approval rating. At least, compared with his
predecessors. One must say that his own antics have contributed to it. And yet,
whatever you think of Trump, he is not the Antichrist incarnate. When people go
to war against Trump they are showing that Barack Obama has produced a nation
at war with itself. No one should be bragging about this.

As I have often noted, the challenge of analyzing the Obama
years is understanding the disconnect between a man who seems to be so decorous
and a nation that is divided into warring factions. At least, it suggests that
the decorous and virtuous veneer has been hiding something more sinister.

If Democrats and their cohorts become too disruptive, the first
time something goes wrong they will be taxed with responsibility. Moreover, the
belligerent attitude, the wish to engage in constant struggle and fighting must
be intended to cover over the fact that the Obama administration spent eight
years projecting weakness around the world. It’s nice enough for Samantha
Powers to declare that we ought to be going to war against Russia, but where
has she been these many years. Within the bosom of the Obama administration. That’s
where. Bending over and submitting to Vladimir Putin, that’s also where.

And yet, Trump’s low approval ratings—lower than previous
presidents—offer an opportunity. Given how much Trump has been demonized he can
only disappoint in one direction—to the upside.

Democratic
leaders are calling his election illegitimate, and most of the media wants Mr.
Trump to implode—for reasons of partisanship, ideology or simply to vindicate
their view during the campaign that he couldn’t and shouldn’t win. No President
since Nixon will face a more hostile resistance in the press and
permanent bureaucracy.

Yet
rather than rage against this hostility, Mr. Trump should view it as an
opportunity. So many elites expect him to fail that even small early successes
will confound them. So many on the left are predicting the rise of fascism that
he can make them look foolish by working well with Congress. So many in the
media will portray him as the leader of a gang of billionaires that he can turn
the tables with an up-from-poverty and education choice campaign.

Let’s say that the demonization is an opportunity and that
constructive proposals from the incoming Trump administration, coupled with civil
behavior and good work with Congress will make the president’s detractors look
slightly unhinged.

One does not believe that the drumbeat of media and
Democratic hostility will let up. But, if Trump does not turn out to be as horrifying
as they expect, they will look like they are not in touch with reality.

Among the reasons that people hate Trump we count this one. They hate Trump because their agenda is to glorify the Obama years. They
despise the notion that the American people have repudiated him and especially
his agenda. They despise the people who voted for Trump. Expect them to fill
the media and the history books with tales of the return of Camelot. All the
horror stories about Trump are laying the groundwork for the beatification of
Obama.[Addendum. About the old and surely correct idea that great minds think alike, I just fell upon Rich Lowry's analysis of the Obama/JFK meme. I offer a link for your delectation.]

"One does not believe that the drumbeat of media and Democratic hostility will let up. But, if Trump does not turn out to be as horrifying as they expect, they will look like they are not in touch with reality."They're not in touch with reality now; so there could be a chance later, but I doubt they'll take it.

So many historians and bigwigs are talking about sacred traditions and unwritten rules about the presidency, suggesting Trump is some Jacksonian barbarian who will lay waste to the office. Where were these people, so steeped in tradition and protective of legacy, when the Supremes gutted the definition of marriage, or when Obama used his pen to legitimize special transgender rights to their own bathrooms?

Gotta love David Brooks... the New York Times' "conservative" writer. He says "America can unite by containing the new president." This from the same guy who voted for Obama (twice) and said we needed better authority figures to break down barriers in Washington. What a silly man Mr. Brooks is! Bohemian bourgeoisie, indeed. This whole media construct is dead, pathetic, disconnected and tone deaf. They chorus to each other, all day. They're parrots, not creative professionals.

Stuart: One does not believe that the drumbeat of media and Democratic hostility will let up. But, if Trump does not turn out to be as horrifying as they expect, they will look like they are not in touch with reality.

That's what Scott Adams has been saying. But "worst case projections" fits my personality as well. Why not expect the worst from people you don't like, and let them prove you wrong?

My cousin said "Give him a chance" while I asked "Do I have a choice?" It's not like I'd spit on him if I met him.

I remember there is a psychological trick that tells you to "Pretend this outcome your can't avoid is exact the outcome you wanted or at least needed, for a the best possible future." so that's worth a try. For everything a reason, for every purpose under heaven.

And I was very concerned that Hillary Clinton was going to be the fallguy for the 2018 economic crisis, and of course whatever happens with a split presidency and congress, the president will be blamed, even if the president has the least actual power to do anything about the economy.

So now Republicans will be 100% in charge at the 2018 crisis, and they'll have to decide whether its better to bail out all the billionaires, or let the economy grind to a halt when everyone is too afraid to spend any money, and all our houses are back "underwater", and all our retirement funds worth something close to their actual worth, i.e. 1/3 of what the markets are doing now.

And we'll see how long the Republican can hold out against the first $12 trillion dollar bail out ever (with another $8 trillion in year 2, and $6 trillion in year 3). And people like me, who have pulled all our money out of the markets can take our pick at the 80% correction and decide where we can invest for the next 300% returns over 4 years.

So I can handle that opportunity to exploit other people's misery when it becomes a firesale buyers market again. And since I know how to live cheaply, I can handle a 75% paycut for 6 to 12 months if my employer really has their income reduced while the new economy works itself out. Employee-owned businessed have a lot of flexibility to handle income losses, and actually layoffs are more expensive than paycuts because the company has to buy back stock shares. I'm very lucky.

Unfortunately I don't think 75% of the population has the options that I do, so I wonder how much the next round 99 months of extended unemployment benefits will cost?

And someday Bedford Falls may become Pottersville, but maybe that's also a step in the right direction, if it means finally America discovers that greedy old men are not your friends.

And maybe out of necessity, in the end, we might even get universal health care out of this, when all the health insurance companies and hospitals go broke on their bad investments. Of course it'll be state run systems, so don't worry. Minnesota and New York will do fine.

Or not? Maybe Obama's economic recovery is real, and Trump's tax cuts can spur another decade of "growth", I mean something that any president could have done, and I'm just worrying for nothing.

Well, I can handle that market-happy future too, and even then my 2% CDs still make me feel happier than playing the markets after 8 bull years. I'm not greedy. While inflation can steal 10% per year if things get bad, while investments can lose 20% in 2 bad months. No thank you.

I'm a White Guy(TM) after all. The world is my oyster.

What's the worst that can happen?

Okay, I suppose I could be killed or maimed in the terrorist attack in Minneapolis that finally triggers the Muslim ban that Trump wants, and internment camps for those already here.

So for the record - I humbly request that my potential untimely death not be used an an excuse for persecuting any group of people based on their race, color, ethnic origin, religion, or creed.