The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Man vs. Machine (and GS)

So, Tungstenman Sachs comes out this morning with a sell-side memo saying Brent should go to $105. All hell breaks loose.

Why would GS do such a thing? My guess is...with May crude options expiry coming up on Thursday, GS needed to break free of a significant short position in calls. I guess we now know why crude was down so heavy yesterday, too. GS undoubtedly gave some of their "best clients" a little advance notice of their intentions. In the end, all this does is create a buying opportunity. Ask yourself, are peace and stability suddenly breaking out all over The Middle East and North Africa? No...not so much.

To that end and to raise cash, I sold some May $40 silver calls and bought some June $110 crude calls about 15 minutes ago. I missed the dip to my 1445 price in gold, however. I am hoping with crossed fingers that I'll get another shot. I'm in with a limit order, trying to buy some June 1450s.

Anyway, here's your WTI chart:

And then the machines kick in and crush gold along with it. Yes, this makes sense only if you're a mindless algo hedgie:

Silver refuses to buckle which is very encouraging. As I type, its back UP to 40.27. Gold is now $10 off its lows too which means I'm probably not going not get filled on my 1450s. Nuts. The HUI got under 580 which means its correction has now run its course.

Keep the faith. Buy the next dip. TF

p.s. To show you how concerned I am about all of this, I'm headed out for a a massage. (Please no "happy ending" jokes.) See you in a couple of hours.

The miners' under-performance compared to physical is a temporary misalignment due to the pressure on equities right now. If silver stays in this range but miners slip more, there could be a good buying opp. I'm planning to go on a buying frenzy once SPY firms up. Being on the sidelines during this time also lets me keep more dry power handy.

As I watch the charts this morning I can only think of one word. With POSX showing all the signs of a dead and stuffed pig on a spit, and the Euro not showing sufficient death gasps...we watch as GSucks attempts to crash WTI and Brent. And Au and Ag take a brief hit on their way to the moon (as their "value" is not easy to determine, but the value of fiat is.) Oh, the word that keeps coming to mind - like that symptom of a dying patient...

Silver is looking strong, gotta say. Sorry, to kind of repost, but I think this is an important discussion. How can the price of commodities stay down in times of war and destruction? The powers that be can only be so powerful.

GS talking down oil to cover shorts, JPM opening their own vault to hide massive short position, US exporting inflation and devaluing the dollar, Soros rubbing his grubby old hands together as his nightmarish dream of new world order comes closer, EE sponsored wars, compliant and duplicitous media talking it all up just the way the Elite Ruling Class wants, Buffet front-running, CFTC yawing and so much more by the EE network.

Will anyone be surprised if the CFTC postpones their meeting today? Will anyone be shocked if they don't find adequate evidence of silver manipulation to do anything?

Would anyone be shocked to find out that Japanese officials and TEPCO are exaggerating the latest Chernobyl-level rating? I have not seen this or read this anywhere, but given all of the above, and the facts that there have been only a few radiation related deaths, along with Disney just reopening there, would Japan's currency or their economy be helped in any way to allow the nuclear disaster to be overblown for a little while? Am I way out in left field here?

For the sake of all Japanese souls, the environment and pretty much everyone in the world that lives and breaths under the wind currents, I hope that it is all overblown, manipulated and not nearly as serious as we're led to believe.

Maybe I'm just getting to the point where I don't trust anything coming from any government or corporation.

Xty read my mind. The dead head feds can't keep the best competitor for the fiat paper dollars down; silver!! I've known for sometime the goons lose power over the PM's and it will be silver 1st. Just watchin, waitin, and soon the self evident truth emerges; paper cash is trash!!

First Majestic Silver Corp. (NYSE:AG) is pleased to announce that production in the first quarter of 2011 reached 1,825,366 equivalent ounces of silver, representing a 13% increase over the 1,619,403 equivalent ounces of silver produced in the first quarter of 2010. Production during the quarter consisted of 1,769,209 ounces of silver, making First Majestic's first quarter production 97% pure silver, the highest in the silver mining industry.

I found taking delivery from First Majestic to be very good. I purchased back in December of 2010 for a trial run with a kilo, right before they imposed a 3-6 week wait for delivery due to demand. That has alleviated some and they are down to 1 week wait before they ship. Would be a good option. I'm on East Coast for the time being and found shipment from Canada pretty easy going.

Anyone have a clue as to why CEF is getting hammered so badly? It's closing premium to NAV was only 0.3%, and its down over 2% today, though neither gold nor silver is down near that much (silv down %0.6, iau down 1.2%. Some news I didn't hear, or just normal gyrations?

Does anyone here follow Terry Laundry's T-Theory? It is similar to Elliott wave, but involves drawing time symmetries. This decline worries me because there is a time symmetry from the 2006 peak (May) to the 2008 bottom (Oct) that shows a possible cycle peak anywhere from now to early June (~2.5 years = april 2011?) depending on where the Ts are placed. The Money Flow Index indicator is I believe what is usually used for measuring the tops and bottoms, but price high/low can be as well.

Terry Laundry never says much about the metals these days, but has seemed worried for awhile about a major correction and was warning about a silver bubble in his last commentary. I've been wanting to post about this for awhile, but not sure that the bubble did pop and I'm not a good trader. Just panicked this morning and sold all my SLW this morning. I've been hesitant to post any T-theory stuff here since it's very subjective drawing the Ts...so I'd take this with a grain of salt. Keep in mind that Peter Eliades has a long term T from 1982 that projects to 4/27/2011 in the SPX and how that could affect the miners.

Thanks for the work you do Turd...been wanting to post for awhile on the subject of cycles, but I am a newbie trader and would hate to spread fear on a subject I am not proficient at. I wish I could post some image examples, but at work right now. I will try tonight if anyone's interested.

I just want to know who the bastards were that were able to buy it down in the 2.80's Canadian. I sure as hell couldn't. Couldn't even get 3.00. There are markets for some, and there are markets for the rest of us. And that's what pisses me off.

Look, these people learned the efficacy of manipulating markets in the crash of 87, i watched them do it, arguably for the first time that fateful Monday morning.

They learned a fatally portentious lesson, if we have futires on everything, we can put prices wherever we like, for singsong money, for rounding error money.

Nothing has been real for 25 years.

Did the stock market double in the last 14 months? It manifestly did.

Its coming down probably 10 to 20 percent, which is an unfortunate tradeoff of crushing commodities. But the base is at least double where it was.

This is a policy shift aimed at food prices.

Gold and silver get caught up.

This is unfortunate.

This is classic end game material.

if they want silver at 32, be assured its going to 32.

If they want gold at 1250, its going to 1250.

Accordingly dont be buying dips.

This is about saving saudi arabia, wwith identical demographics, to the other 9 countries in flames. \ And yes, as a matter of incontrovertible fact, they do breed like rabbits, the average age is 25, and thats in all ten countries, probably since they are substantially understimulated with things like jobs, the average per capita income per day in egypt is 2 bucks.

Dont fuck with this thing. 32 silver, 1250 gold, then infinite if you choose to price it in US dollars. The number is meaningless.

Vamoose, The only way to control commodity prices, thereby reducing the inflation pressures and food prices for the Sauid's, is to remove money from the system. The EE can sell all the paper, make statements, craft all of the announcements and b.s. policies they want to, but the fundamentals for PMs are still there. You seem to insist that you have some kind of inside information but this kind of sell off is quite regular right before tax time, so what gives? I suggest that you look at some historical charts! Oh and btw, Comex has no silver or gold, what do you think that will do to the discovery price?

Additional, it doesn't matter that silver has "doubled" it is still not at it's true value, considering that we have 14% to 20% inflation.

"The precious metals will correct when they are ready, and I might add that in ten years of closely following gold and silver, I have never come across anyone who has successfully called tops or who has successfully traded in-and-out of the metals. Advice -- stay invested in the metals until they exhaust themselves in panic buying."

The EE are trying really hard to beat the PM's down now that the MSM momentum has taken hold regarding GS commodities sell off and crude being over priced etc.

If this wasn't sesrious business and money was not at stake, the sell off in crude would be almost funny at the rate it's selling off.It's only a loss if you get nervous and sell into weakness. Hang tight!

Larry, actually I suspect the news (that we're not getting) is worse from Japan than is being told. It was clear from the first day after the tsunami (to those of us with a background in nuclear engineering) that a melt-down was more than likely. The results would either be the same as a very, very "dirty bomb" or one created by a runaway fission reaction were critical mass reached, which appeared to this not-quite layman as a very possible, if not probable scenario.

But of course the news reporting of the riots from Syria to Yemen to Algeria to Bahrain are reported equally well - as are those in Libya and Egypt. I am forced to quote the Buddha here (and please note, I an not of that faith...)

"Believe nothing, no matter where you read it, no matter if I have said it, if it does not agree with your own Reason and your own Common Sense."

Xty, you asked, "How can the price of commodities stay down in times of war and destruction?" and I would answer: That is the Plan. Ordo ab Chao. And if the collapse of fiat currencies worldwide can be made to coincide with wars, oil shortages, famine, and bank holidays (not to mention earthquakes and nuclear and environmental disasters - think oil spills and dead animals around the planet) then the chaos can be maximized. Problem, Reaction, Solution. We're seeing the problems and we are not likely to appreciate the reactions and solutions. :-(

Vamoose, Saudi will do exacly what the UAE does - offset import prices for goods with oil profit... if you think that the saudis will revolt then youre wrong, petro dollars will be recycled to maintain price stability, like everything else here its a not a free market.

Just wanted to share this in case no one has gotten wind of APMEX's latest promo.

They are offering free shipping through the month of April if you download their phone app and order through that app.I plan to take them up on the offer as it will negate the premiums. Good deal in my opinion.

The Ass dopes that visit here on down days would have you believe that Bonds are the way to go..At least this is what the Government and Squid would have you believe. Me I am done feeding the machine...Still long all my miners positions..BRING IT ON DOUCHE BAGS.

Looks like we are testing 39.80 for the 3rd time this morning. I have noticed that weeks of heavy attacks have painted an upper downward trendline. We rise back up ( but with lower highs) and they push us back down. At some point we break and run flat for a couple of days, then the uptrend resumes... For all that we are only down a dollar from the close last friday.

Wow... 1911 shares in 1 minute @ 11:17. I have not seen them push down that hard before...

I can't say whether it's time to buy as I am a buy and hold (for a spell) kinda girl. I bought AG at around $13/share. I would hate to not own any when the big red re-set button gets pushed and silver goes parabolic.

Not that I'm complaining (Ok, yes I am). If you believe in the long term on anything, and if you can sell a piece and buy it back cheaper, that's a win. A win is a win is a win. But still, I'm grumpy about it.

Sold EXK for a small profit (shouldn't have held over the weekend!!!!). Looking at Minera Andes again. I understand they are due drilling results on May 6th. Anybody got any views on support through the current volatility? Always seems to be a stock that takes two steps forward then three back.

I highly recommend buying puts to profit or at least not lose as much during these corrections. Really puts the mind at ease. Turd has a good read on the dips, which makes it a relative breeze to execute.

Well that settles it. Vamoose, you are speaking out of your ass! The only policy being implemeted here is the same one that the EE has used for the last 30 years. Keep PM's at bay to hide the week dollar!

For what is worth, some of these mining shares are approaching 66% retracement of recent run up. EXK would be 10.17. NGD would be 10.24.Unless you really believe we have anything to do with food prices in Suadi Arabia and that we haven't already lost Saudi. nonsense. This is simply a wash out before the big move forward. Everyhting else is feeble searching for a reason why.

I completely disagree with vamoose that the metals will suffer a 20% haircut. There's too much fiat being pumped into the system for that to happen, and the Fed will only print more. In concert with that belief, I bought the effing dip today.

vamoose, if you're so convinced of your thesis, then please go on the record here with the positions you've taken to profit from $32 silver and $1250 gold. I'm sure many of us will find it interesting.

Michael - you may very well be correct, in that the Japan situation is worse than we're being told. From the Dept. of Stating the Obvious, it's either better or worse... or exactly what we're told. Of course we hope it is MOPE for the sake of everything more precious than any currency.

Vamoose - As far as corrections go, you could be correct. Over the last year I've read/heard quite a few others saying gold would correct down to 1250 to high 1100's and silver mid to low 20's. While I'm inclined not to believe those numbers, I would not come on this or any board and state that I knew my inclination to be fact... nor would I repeatedly post my opinion until everybody wanted to throw up. You seem so sure of your crystal ball. Maybe experience has taught you many things. Perhaps you are right on the money.

Maybe you are just a good-hearted soul that is sincerely interested in yelling FIRE in this theatre and warning everyone. I do not have a clue. But I do know that everyone here has read your message, they know your numbers and they know the reason behind your theory. I do know those here will either take cover and sell paper pm's, per your advice or hold on and buy the dips. More bell-clanging is not really necessary, unless you just want to grab attention and cause anxiety.

Better yet would be a promise to vamoose it out here once your day in the sun and 15 minutes of attention have ended. If we see 32 then I will personally kiss your ass in the middle of main street and give you 30 minutes to draw a crowd.

vertical charts are no goddamned good, you do not invest in vertical charts, its certain disaster.

In all of recorded market history, every vertical parabola engenders its obverse, accordingly, even if i am poorer for a few months, I would very much like to take the ginger out of that parabolic silver chart, by going sideways in the 30s. Its utterly unhealthy in its present configuration

I'm holding what I have. If 'they' want to drive or grind it down to where some suggest it's headed, fine. I can keep adding some cash over time and when and if it happens, fine. I'll not buy or trade between here and there.

But that's just me. The miners don't eat much, and they don't leave ugly spots on the back of the toilet.

And if they can drive Minera down far enough, or AG into the teens (I should check, maybe already there ;) then I'll deploy those into more more more!!!

with what's coming on the spin out at Minera, I consider such a potential a gift.

No one can time these things and expect to come out ahead of the banksters.

If like me youre Dizzy watching the charts Yo-Yo up and down, take a few minutes to watch the latest Keiser Report. Part 2 has an interview with Jim Rickards on the state of Gold and Silver which is interestingly talking about volatility.

Quite a battle around $40 - If any of you are Lord of the Rings fans, I couldn't help but thinking of the 2nd movie this morning: Just when you feel like you're starting to hold your own in the battle, some troll comes running in your back door and blows everything to hell . . .

johnboat, I sold my Great Panther position last week and went short another mining stock. (I won't mention which stock, because I don't want to anger the longs here.) I covered yesterday, which was in hindsight a day early, and today I reloaded on GPL. I just don't see the Panther having much downside from here. The dilution business will be finished shortly, and once the technicals generate a buy signal, GPL is going to fly again. Aside from the untimely share dilution, the fundamentals haven't changed at all.

A "correction" implies that the up-trending price is a "mistake." I don't think we have a mistake in PMs here. As I see it, they are rising steadily due to inivestor and industrial demand, coupled with shortages and inflation.

And if JPM and the EE has really been suppressing prices (some out there still don't believe it), then they have already built the "correction" that could have been brought on by due to overzealous and quick-triggered investors. I can't see a fall back to 32 without PM holders selling their physical hoards.

I am watching 39.80 and then 39.20 if that falls.I expect it to be fairly flat through expiration of options this friday. there is no way the EE lets those 39,000 Apr 11 $40 SLV calls close in the money (SLV would need a /SI price of 40.80)Still sitting on dry powder... hope I'm not wrong waiting through today.

Silver spot April 15, 2010... $18.25Wish I was paying attention then.Puts the "correction" in perspective.As an ant, I welcome the opportunity to add to my stack.Lots of talk about the increased urgency for the TPTB. I hope this is true. Incredible time to be in the middle of this battle.It's changed my life.Peace everybody

Good grammar, good punctuation, no dehumanizing nonsense, no bad language reveals a disciplined and logical mind. I am inclined to listen to those who can express themselves clearly, politely, and do not yell, ridicule or belittle those with whom they disagree. And also, why listen to someone who claims they don't care about what you do? And if someone doesn't care about you, you have to ask yourself, why are they giving me advice? And the answer is to satisfy some need of their own.

I find days like this way too hard to time. Woulda, coulda, shoulda, all day long. But every time I check silver, it is at about $40 - this will stabilize. Don't you feel like the kitchen sink is being thrown at you? Weird advice from GS, trolls abounding, desperate attempts to change the prices of oil, dollars, metals, food - pushing water in a balloon. By the end of the week we will be looking for 45, and 1500.

in addition to reading these posts to get a sense of other miners and technical analysis, i like reading those with a contradictory approach. one thing i don't like on either side, is mentality, xyz will definitely happen. miners could double in 12 months, they could also drop by 75%. in fact some can go to zero and be revealed as scams.

vamoose, since you are so certain, could you pls provide some more rational or links to research. at end of the day for me my concern is mainly asset allocation, not day trading. the only thing i can say about ur comment is that it is not common sense to me how anyone could be so certain, have 45 yrs of experience, and still be typing comments into a blog. the few individuals i have ever met with even 20+ yrs of experience trading and good success are managing 100s of millions or billions of dollars. this doesn't mean i think u r wrong, it is just that common sense is not adding up for me. pls help

DPH - I got that free shipping offer from APMEX and considered taking them up on it, but Bullion Direct ended up having a lower total cost (even with shipping) for the particular quantity of silver bullion I was interested in.

The advantage may have been in the other direction for some other kind of bullion or size of order, so folks should definitely consider APMEX --- I just wanted to caution that a competitor may still be able to beat them on total price, so it's worth checking.

FWIW, I've ordered from both firms in the past and been happy with their quality and service.

Checking in from all the action today. Pretty exciting stuff. Saw Blythe sitting on a MOOSE behind the battlelines! The best I could tell, it had the letters "va" on it. Does a moose with "va" make any sense to any of you? If he gets within range, I would love to take it out. va moose meat - probably not a good roast, maybe jerky...or better, canned!

Bro. D Canned would be good, but something about the word 'jerky' seems appropriate.

Just have to quickly add, I think someone asked earlier, but I have ordered from both First Majestic and Great Panther and got excellent service and prompt delivery from both. FM just edged out GP for speed and service, but not by much, and they don't have a panther on their rounds.

and about 1000 ounces of physical gold, and huge positions in about 30 miners.

You asked so there is your answer.

Therefore Am i bullish... well....

Your purpose.

I dont think people should buy the dip thats all, bucause the dip is going to be a bit hurtful.

Thats about it.

And who cares about one persons opinion. I am not trying to generate anxiety, i may be trying to shake complacency.

Maybe i will help somebody.

We are in a very serious situation, Japan, MENA, this is incredibly serious.

They have very few policy options. One is to smash commodities.

WEll. kindly observe, thats exactly whats happening.

If I were an American, get out of your fucking currency. Its worthless.Buy some canadian dollars. Its a commodity currency, and the divisor , the population , is 33 million, not 330 million. Our banks are at least titularly solvent.

Thanks guys! I was just wondering if that high short position had chased everyone away from the GPL tree. I was at the front door this morning when they opened with that -6% off coupon from the $4.20 price all of those shares are settling at today. Looks like it might be heading back up there now to watch the settlement festivities.

Actually, I have a squadron of F16's parked in my back yard, a printing press in my basement and uh yea benny is a regular house guest of mine. Did I mention I was playing basketball with the president this afternoon and playing golf with Timmy tomorrow?

Scott - thanks - I really enjoy the conversations you and I get into here. And you are very good at seeing through disinformation, which is what I feel we are drowning in. We need to go back and read the earlier posts I think to regain our footing. I don't mean to be mindlessly bullish, but so clear thinking returns. I can't help feel that this little odd moment, with this blog feeling upset, and prices behaving strangely, has something to do with Mr Soros' little get together. It was interesting when vamoose said he hated talk of emotion - yet here he is trying to scare people. Emotion, as we have discussed often on this thread, is a dangerous companion when trading. But to pretend it doesn't exist would be madness. So let's all stay calm here, and don't get fooled into doing something out of fear or uncertainty. And then I check the chart - 40.01. Fundamentals are called fundamentals for a reason, and they are only getting stronger. Head fakes abound.

The TSX was down 235 points yesterday and so far is down another 250 today. The DOW is down 130 points. The miners follow the markets. If you know where the TSX and the S&P 500 and the DOW are going, you can time tops and bottoms in mining stocks.

My two metric tonnes is buried at the bottom of Georgian Bay, so as long as it isn't winter, I can access it with scuba gear. (Actually, it is 1.7 tonnes, but who here can do math?) The gold we had made into a piano. Looks very nice in the conservatory we added to the mansion to accommodate it.

I am still long GPL & EXK ... could have booked profits on those a few days ago but did not even though I knew what we are seeing today was a great possibility ... then why ... I don't believe I could get GPL or EXK cheaper than where I was and jumping in and out wasn't worth the small percentage (just me)... GPL RSI at 50 and EXK at 56 ... look at the charts without a deeper correction (January) they bounce off those RSI's ... I expect the same here ... so I will not vamoose my positions

Any folks here bought from apmex?I try to buy some new physical silver under "brand new" section but they gave me old ones which they bought back from their customers.I'm kinda piss off. But due to their wide selections I try to buy from them again under "brand new" and i even email the customer service officer indicating I want only new ones.The reply I got was they couldn't guarantee I will be given new ones, as it is very difficult to seperate the old and the news! WTF!They will try their best.If that is the case why bother to have a section selling "brand new only" silver bars when they cant guarantee to give new ones (they are guarantee to give me old ones again) These old bars looked dull and some have scratch marks.Any folks here have same kinda experience?

It is hard not to play, but as long as we resort to humour, not vitriol, I think it is fine, and may rescue the mood too. If we cannot stay cheerful on down and sideways days, then we are letting our 'money' drive our emotions. I won't do that. Walking the dog on the beach is something I can do rich or poor, just get there in a different vehicle. But I am with Eric, that when it is a set-up, and you can't get your order filled but all around your price other bids are taking. There are very odd rules about how different platforms have to table their orders and you can end up with part of your bid sitting on a more lightly traded board. Unfair is truly irritating.

@vamooseThe "policy" you keep mentioning has a brief mention of food prices, but mostly it is about capping oil prices at $85 / bbl. It's been all about oil for several years. The efforts to impede the rise in PM's have been, in most months, successful. There are many things at play here, but keep your eye on oil. It is the currency du jour.

@Eric#1 - Sometimes it is nice to be in a couple of those thinly traded shares. They don't crucify you on some of these brutal moves. They just sit there saying: "Nope, I'm not moving for these fools." Then you get huge volume up moves when the time is right. Just makes you want to give them a big hug...

Have you ever read about freegold? Because your understanding of the saudi oil dollar connection indicates that you haven't. I would suggest you take some time to educate yourself rather than blabbing price targets to people who are uninterested.

My position is this: I pay attention to day-to-day price fluctuations in Gold/Silver only with mild interest. I'm a steady physical accumulator (both personal and vault). This week I started liquidating some more equities to apply to PMs. Price goes up and down, but I probably won't be too picky about buy entry point.

My question:

Is anyone else getting the "Express Gold Cash" Ads here? "Sell your unwanted gold! Today!" Go their page and try their "Gold Calculator". Put in 33.6 grams of 22K gold and see what you get (hint: that is the equivalent of a 1 OZ Gold Eagle). I'm all for Turd's sponsors, but I'd wonder about having Express Gold banned from here... just saying...

On hiding gold...I have a friend who's family tradition in to keep 1/3 of their net worth in gold. They have it smithed into knobs and handles for their cabinets, then paint it. If they have to get out of town fast, they take all the handles off and hit the road...

I think Vamoose is dead wrong on silver. I believe we should continue to BTFD.

From Ed Steer today,

Here's a paragraph from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly review that he sent out to subscribers on Saturday..." I know we are over-bought in silver and in a normal market the price should correct sharply. But this is as far from a normal market as you can get. This is a manipulated market where the manipulation is in the process of ending and in which the manipulators appear to be in trouble. That means the charts and previous price patterns may not matter. It is very easy to imagine some important shorts throwing in the towel in their weakened financial state. In fact, it may be what we are witnessing now."

Was thinking earlier today if there are any IT security genius types who could come up with a *safe* way of getting we internet friends into contact, without accidentally befriending a GS or Soros plant in real life too.

Any pointers how to set up a several-stage plan to accomplish something like that? I would *love* to know if there are ZH or TF minded individuals near me ...

Yes to Ed Steer. I absolutely agree. And the volumes being so high but the price of silver and gold staying so strong is even more bullish.

And as to head fakes. I have a stock app that came with my iPhone and it brings up helpful headlines. Today's? Gold down 1% ... Metals and commodities down ... Stocks down .... Beyond just trying to make me sell my holdings I also thought of the oddness of living in both inflationary and disinflationary times. Sometimes we might see everything down. So selling to hold a dollar that is falling faster? And one last thing. Everything is down but silver is to all intents and purposes hanging in there. Real value.

I agree with Shill regarding APMEX. I'd bet $100 you accidentally hit the wrong button. I did it once with them when I intended to buy something with assay certs, THOUGHT I did, called in PISSED off that I got them without assay certs, but they were right, I clicked the wrong thing!

However, they were EXTREMELY accomodating if I wanted to exchange them for same product with assay and they did it in a price neutral way with no additional costs/premiums.

I know there are cheaper avenues, but I've loved all of my experiences with APMEX.

I'll ask you this for all of us... look at the invoice/packing list that came with the physical silver AND look at your email order, AND look at the web listings today... please let us know if your email confirmation and packing list/invoice definitely specify NEW or not. When I doubled checked mine, even the initial order did not say "w/assay cert." It was my error, but please let us know. I really don't think they would try to pass something off as "new" if it wasn't, let alone clearly wasn't. I've had cut/damaged boxes on 100 ounce bars from them lots of time, but the physical itself always looked pristine whether it was APMEX bars (LOVE LOVE LOVE the stackables!) or JM.

why wouldn't the saudis just subsidize the food costs, only should cost about 15 billion per year or so to feed entire population of the country. isn't that easier achieved by these oil prices as opposed to squashing all prices?

just trying to connect the dots. anyone slamming you for your price points should prob check themselves...get the sense a lot of posters on here are traders but don't realize it yet!

After I read this post30 mins ago, I was totally convinced by Turd's argument and I bought the same June $110 crude call right away when crude is 105.7 and already up 10%. Turd, you are my hero, thanks!!

Vamoose ... you are not alone: I have been warning in my circles since Thursday/Friday - and posted a lot of posts with charts of several markets (especially Brent and Silver) - over the weekend.This selloff was soooooo predictable. I'm short since 41.67 (posted in my blog).And yes fully agree - it is a setup.And yes I have a lot of reasons too why we go lower.

There is only a small difference in our expectations. I have 38 as first target - and once 37.8x breaks we go to around 36.

But I never had 32 or 33 as possible target.

THOUGH IF this was THE parabolic blow off (so far I don't believe it - a break of 37.8x will open that door) - then I expect even lower lows. If it wasn't - then we go higher once more - and THEN comes the crash.

I'm still not sure whether you are a paid shill - but anyway I find your observations quite interesting and refreshing, as it opens the mind for further possibilities.

In the end - for true technicans and professionals your threats or targets or reasonings mean nothing - as we just act on what the charts will tell us what to do. Everything else in the end is noise. 39.7x breaks - next 37,8x - next 36 - etc.

Sell break of support, buy next support, sell resistance etc. Play lower lows and lower highs - or once reversal comes higher lower and higher highs.There's nothing to worry or to be afraid of - as it's just following the trends and with this god given volatility and trends as smooth as butter we make money going north and money going south.All you need to do is drawing some charts and following couple of other markets.Instead of hanging along in these boards and forums - and wasting hours and hours with posting this and that - and especially ones Egos.

Anyway - your posts are really refreshing.Especially if one is already short from 41.6xSo far 38 is my bet. Thereafter closing shorts. And ready to follow the next leg - no matter which direction it goes.Again 45 or higher is as welcome as is 32.

just bought Cream at a nice discount .317 CRMXF.... I buy these types as a looooong term hold .... thanks to this blog for rec a while back .... again can't remember who did the rec ... sorry ... must be all that stuff I did in the 60's

I can't stop laughing at this site. My team said I should take a look, and I'm so, so, so glad I did. Mind you, I don't know which I prefer - this, or the Charlie-Sheen-esque SilverGoldSilver pre-pubescent mouth droolings.

A good skim through has given me some nice cuttings for my "Blythe Internet Hate Campaign Scrap Book". So here are a couple of tips for you lovely, smashing boys and girls in return:

1. We make money. Lots of it. The price direction is not relevant. If silver goes to $30 when your little bubble pops, we make a shit load. If it goes to $50, we also make a shit load. I really couldn't give a rat's arse, provided that the volatility is there so that we make money.

2. The USD is not going to die or hyper-inflate. It cannot and will not. Even the Chinese know this to be true. So easy on the tinned goods and water filters, guys! You remind me of all the sad, little militia men you saw on the news in Idaho or god knows where back in the 90s. Perhaps they're still there...

3. We don't control silver or gold prices. I wish I could (I'd have _bought_ Venezuela by now, if we could, you silly wankers. Love the videos, though - they're good for a giggle). Every time a hedge fund drops its load for a few days and sets off some stops you think it's because we've clicked our fingers? Strange how you don't notice the near-vertical prices and stop-setting on the way up and blame us for that too...

4. I like a laugh - I really do. But come on! What's with all the misogynist schoolboy crap? Look at what you write! - Are you proud of that? Would you like someone to say those things to your daughter or wife or mother? Criticise me professionally - fine (even though you're way off target). But leave off with all the women-hating, repressed sexual violence stuff. It's really, really sad, you sad, pathetic little boys.

Buy your silver. We don't give a shit. It won't bring down the dollar. It won't bring down JPM. And it certainly won't bring down me. I hope it makes you rich and happy. Like me ;-) See - we're the same, really..!

I have used APMEX with great success for almost two years. At one point, I received a tube of silver eagles that were used and pretty shabby. The same week, I talked to someone who also had the same thing happen from a different source. We concluded that with all the EVIL and shenanigans, that supplies were probably running thin and we were happy to get what we did. And those were the good old days at $25/oz.

There's probably no disagreement with you on this board that the US$ is toast. But like I said last night, your story is a little over the top. I'm still willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and there's no doubt that you bring up important points.

I'm not a rich person. But we sit with about 6 months cash and our pms (physical & equities) can yoyo all they want. The fundamentals are there and I've known it for quite some time so we're going to sit TPTB and all their histrionics out.

As for the Saudis rioting, well, maybe the Shia but the Saudis I've worked with (starting decades back) and the ones that I've seen who have come to the US for training programs (e.g., UT) were as lazy and soft and as unmotivated as they come. The only people in their groups who made it through the training programs were the handful of non-Saudis who accompanied them. They're too used to having Pakistanis slave-workers and as long as the rials flow I don't think they're going to stress too much about the price of wheat. There may be 10 countries around them rioting, but the difference in per capita income of the native population is a major factor.

I do think we need to worry about Iran trying to destabilize SA though. That's just my $0.02.

Well, yesterday I lost $1204.85 on AGQ which isn't bad considering the down day we had (this is net - having wiped out all my previous accidental gains.) I've been stopped out of all my possitions in the ETF but do have enough non "free ride" cash to place an order in for 40 shares (I churned well over a hundred grand with this maze of conditional stop loss orders.) I think this method has value though it is very risky in any account especially an IRA like mine and don't necessarily recommend it to others. Two Turdanistas gave me the basic information to go forward with this and if they're ever free I'd like to bounce a couple of the things I did off them to see if I can't refine it more, although, in yesterday's market there wasn't much that could be done to save the day.

I guess an old dog can learn new tricks (I just hope that I have retirement money left once I've got the knack of this one.

I now am 1/2 cash (not tradable because of free ride) and 1/2 in CEF. Having two holdings keeps things kinda simple.

Eaxctly Keyboard commandos thumping their chest and announcing to the world..." We make money either way " BFD. And by the way since you brought up the word money, define the word for us lemmings Ole magical all seeing Eye.

Mr. Hamster troll -- The last time you graced us with your words of wisdom, you claimed that gold will exceed 1500 by end of March. Now you show up here mouthing off AFTER silver makes a move that you called it right? And you criticize those that spend too much time on blogs?

See you next time you get lucky. BTW, where were you BEFORE gold broke through 1440? You were on the sidelines, right?

Anyone have a chance to read ZH's latest regarding the Fed.(taxpayer)money given to the two wive's etc.Makes smoke come out of your ears when you realize we have been totally screwed by those who feel they deserve "aid" when they are nothing but shell corporations with their hands out looking for a bailout.

When is some individual, with clout or a voice, going to take on TPTB and expose them for what has happened and is still happening?Ron Paul, where are you on these matters of taxpayer rape? Why no outrage from asnyone of significance?

Is it possible they ALL are in on it? That ZH article is outrageous IMO.

Just a thought, here, but if the regulars "turdites" as it were, would commit to cleaning up their language (can we not get our points across without the 4 letter "expletives"?), it would, for the most part, be easy to identify and ignore the trolls.

1--there has been little volatility in gold or silver for awhile, or in the broader market. Just steady climbs up. Sorry you haven't been making much.

2--USD can hyperinflate, and it can die. It most certainly can. did you see 2008 coming? I would bet the majority here did. I highly doubt you did.

3--naked shorting def. suppresses price of PMs. Not control. Suppresses. The exposure of Comex is a certainty, just like the subprime collapse. There is money to be made on its exposure. It will happen.

Yeah, I got some bullion coins from APMEX once that looks like they had been through a wood chipper. If I was more of a coin collector and not a bullion collector I wouldn't use them as a vendor because I dont trust condition on the product.

But whatever, that was one order, one bad experience out of many experiences. For that one negative you can look to the other extreme and say that they are fast, reliable, and convenient.

Is it not amazing how we never saw all these wise uber succesful traders until the metals turn down? They never had a peep to say! Now they are all oracles of wisdom. Hamster, Vamoose, Trinity bullshit. Whose next? Just utterly ridiculous. Come share your wisdom as we are on are way to 45 again. By the way Trinity, we watch the COT very closely and we know whats what with the big $.

but seriously ... yeah I do the same thing ... buy 1000 shares of those little guys when they get like this with the profits from an SLW or EXK ....... patience brings them back to you ... glad you picked it off the discount tree ...

AGoldhumster and his usual bullshit....the guy have zero credibility, almost all his calls are been wrong...bullish one minute, bearish the next...Like Irene said, there nothing more powerfull than fundamentals right now..

Funny you mention Idaho. BTW, it's Ruby Ridge that you were referring to, and you should not visit it. BTW, my blogger icon is a picture taken about 10 miles from there. Please don't visit, you'd just get your Florsheims all dirty.

The wall of worry is getting taller. The dips are not fun but I have to believe that in spite of the zero hedge article about the put buy of 1 mill on slv is by someone who thinks they know something. I always come down on the same side, just hold on cause we all know it is going higher. I sat through the dip back in 08 and though it was not fun I know I am not smart enough to know when to get back in. If I was I would already be living in fiji with dancing girl goddesses, no longer worried about the effing dips. The quote by Richard Russell is enough to tell me that. Remember Jesse, be right, sit tight. I can't come up with silver being over valued at this point, even though we probably need a cooling off. For the ones here smart enough to trade every squiggle, please call me to gloat when you get to fiji.

I'd wondered that too, or why not the US for that matter? One thing that occurs to me is that the logistics and politics of putting it into effect are too difficult and time consuming, and things happen fast. Smashing commodities, while maybe illegal, can be done in moments.

Not trolling, I'm just trying to connect the dots on this for myself too. I have to think that any smashdowns can't last long. People need to eat, that's about as fundamental as can be, but not far after is the need to eat in the future - i.e., protection of what one has rather than watching it evaporate. And I can't see anything but hard goods of some sort as the best chance to secure that, and none so convenient as PMs. But short term, I'm getting hammered on the miners like most others here, considering a good chunk of puts for insurance. Which I've done before and they've always expired worthless (a good thing :) ), so I haven't yet this time.

I understand that guys will be guys and all that that entails - including boasting about what you do. But from where I stand I think it needs to be said loud and clear: our society over-produced lawyers and bankers big time. And all we have to show for it is serious malinvestment and a bankrupt society.

This is what you think keeps a society going? Making paper money on the way up and down? You need to wake up and smell the coffee. We have stripped and outsourced our production capability, miseducated at least 2 generations of our youth, engendered non-sustainable expectations in the majority of our population and I promise you that this can not continue.

Our markets and production capabilities are seriously out of whack. Our banks and governments and major financial institutions are bankrupt and we can't get the adults in this country to focus on a $14 trillion debt if their children's lives depended on it (which it will).

So go ahead, fiddle away with the markets while Rome burns. But you're just one more example of a sorry juvenile masquerading as an adult as far as I'm concerned.

Negative on the Cream - 'twas not I. I would guess Eric#1 or Pick52 or Ginger first did? I remember it being mentioned back 2 or 3 weeks ago maybe? Whenever it was that EA came around with his oil play, and Scott & Yukon first mentioned Revett and people were talking about Tinka. Time flies when you're having fun... [this week excepted, so far..]

Señor Turd, is it possible for you to put our "map" or community-building endeavor into your big yellow foam incubator and come up with a brilliant and secure way for us all to become buddy buddy? Would love to drink beer* and talk shop / prep for the end of the world with like-minded folk. Also, this place is the best. Thanks as always.

* [or chardonnay, for the ladies; or a nice Arnold Palmer, for those who aren't into the fire water.]

I am a fan of this site, but not afraid to go against prevailing winds. I am currently short gold (until 1455.8 is reclaimed) looking for 1438.70 first, and if no bounce from there, the next target is 1432.20;

I have a core physical position that I do not plan to sell, ever, and I trade futures around that position based on what the charts are telling me.

I am roughly Vamoose's age, attended Woodstock, lost 0.5 mil in the '87 crash, and can still remember vividly my father's backhand the first time I dropped the "f" bomb. My experience has taught me that you can tell alot about a person by the way he speaks (and writes).

I'm seeing the best rally (off the sickening lows) of the day right now. SLW seems to have found its footing. Unfortunately, these moves up have been met with selling as weak hands are looking for an exit at the least amount of pain.

Tomorrow? I've seen these take down go on for days and days. We're just at day two.

In the U.S. we have sacrificed all but #3.If the economic foundation that creates the wealth that drives all the service economy is not good, then the economy becomes sick.Large economies have lots of momentum (decades)and we have a sick economy slowly loosing momentum.

We have huge structural unemployment because not every one is cut out to create IP, and the actual productive jobs in other endeavors have been driven out.

magis00, the only map of like-minded individuals is on Michael Ruppert's Collapsenet. I'm not a member so I don't know how much they are into PMs but they have a lot of doom. In any case, here's their map:

FreeBoundary said...I believe GoldHamster/Kid Dynamite et al are all computer algorithm developed by AI experts hired by JPM. Otherwise, how can a human being be so clockwise accurate to show up at blogs only when big raids are going on and repeat same boring/dry words again and again? Have you seen IBM’s machine beating Jeopardy’s champ recently? Don’t be fooled by the intelligence of machine.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The United States ran a budget deficit of $188 billion in March, the Treasury Department reported Tuesday. For the first half of fiscal year 2011, the deficit is $829 billion, or about $112 billion more than the first six months of the prior fiscal year. The year-to-date deficit would be $49 billion lower than the same period in fiscal 2010 adjusting for costs related to the Troubled Asset Relief Program, a Treasury official said.

Unbelievable- step out of town for a few days and it's suddenly a trollfest around here. The best, by far, was Trinity B: "My team said I should take a look at this site..." Nice that your parents read TFMetalsReport, too. And that you can get wifi in the basement.

Just FYI for future trolls, adopting an online persona as a filthy rich 'master of the universe' dropping by to mock the plebes is one of the least convincing storylines you could possibly concoct. Gratifying you would make the effort to construct such a fiction, though. Now hop in your imaginary Jet, kiss your imaginary girlfriend or boyfriend, and go make some more of those imaginary profits.

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About Me

"Turd Ferguson" has been involved in the securites "industry" for over 20 years. He first received his NASD licenses in June of 1990. Ultimately disgruntled by the fraud known as "financial planning", he retired to a career as a serial entrepreneur in 2008. The Turd is NOT a soothsayer, a psychic or a witch. After all these years, he simply has a decent handle on the PM "markets". You can reach The Turd by email at tfmetalsreport@gmail.com. If you are polite and not an AGA, he will probably answer you in short order.

DISCLAIMER: The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes. Trade at your own risk. The Turd provides knowledge not direction. Turd holds no liability for your trades and decisions but he's happy to take credit when credit is due, particularly through the "donate" button.

All content at this website http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com is presented for educational and/or entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances should it be mistaken for professional investment advice (because it is, most assuredly, not), nor is it at all intended to be taken as such.

The commentary and other contents simply reflects the opinion of The Turd alone on the current and future status of the markets, various economies and world events. It is subject to error and change without notice. The presence of a link to a website does not indicate approval or endorsement of that web site or any services, products, or opinions that may be offered there.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to buy or sell any securities nor investments. DO NOT EVER purchase any security or investment without doing your own and sufficient research. The Turd is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein but he probably will anyway. Turd may, at times and probably does, have positions in the securities or investments referred to here and may make purchases or sales of these securities and investments while this site is live. However, if asked, he'll gladly tell you what those investments are so don't worry about it. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed. Seriously.