Why that date? Because it’s a day off before they start a weekend
series in Philadelphia. They would have come off a ten game home stand
that will determine Manuel’s fate. There is no way anything will happen
before, even if they go 0-6 in Colorado and St. Louis. To get a new
manager, staff, and everyone situated takes a full day and the only day
that makes sense is April 29th.

Can Jerry Survive? I really don’t think he can. Realistically he is
staring at 4-8 by the end of the week. Unless they go 6-4 or 7-3 on the
home stand he is gone. Even then, I could see a lackluster game taking
him out. Remember, there are replacements aplenty waiting in the wings
so the “gun is loaded” for lack of a better word.

My gut says that's way too early. Unless the Mets go into absolute freefall over the next few weeks in a way that would make the '62 Mets blush (which, while not out of the realm of possibility, is unlikely), Jerry Manuel should at least hang around long enough to see Carlos Beltran return to the lineup. That is, IF Beltran returns to the lineup in a timely manner. I would personally set the over/under on June 16th, also known as the 2-year anniversary of Manuel taking the reins from Willie Randolph under the cover of darkness.

If the Mets fire Manuel shortly, I don't think they'll get the sort
of bounce they did when they replaced Willie Randolph with Manuel two
seasons ago. That was, perversely, a tribute to how much pretty much
everyone, up and down in the organization, disliked Randolph. Manuel
hasn't drawn such enmity.

However, if they replace Manuel with, say, scout Bob Melvin - that
way, they could say they replaced one former Manager of the Year with another -
then the Mets would give themselves a better chance to win every day.
Today, if someone asks me how much time Manuel has left, my answer would
be, "Not much."

I remember an e-mail exchange I had with Davidoff back in 2008 about the success of interim managers. Davidoff made the point that back then, the Mets were asking the question of whether the Mets would sincerely get a pick-up if the team dismissed Randolph. I was less than enthusiastic about the plan, but it worked out in the short term (even if the team missed the playoffs by 1 game for the second year in a row). Ultimately, that's the question you have to ask now.

And if the answer is no, then Manuel's inevitable dismissal isn't a matter of "when" anymore, but "why."------

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