The Conservatives have a tenuous grasp on a majority government, while the Liberals and New Democrats are in a dead heat for second place, a new poll shows.

Laureen Harper trips over a barrier as she and husband Conservative Leader Stephen Harper make a campaign stop in Etobicoke, Sept. 26, 2008.

By:Tonda MacCharlesOttawa Bureau, Published on Sat Sep 27 2008

OTTAWA–The Conservatives have a tenuous grasp on a majority government, while the Liberals and New Democrats are in a dead heat for second place, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted for the Toronto Star by Angus Reid Strategies, found that 40 per cent of Canadians would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow.

The Liberals under Stéphane Dion continue to drop, losing core supporters to the Tories as well as to the other parties. For the first time in the campaign, the Liberals and New Democrats, under Jack Layton, are tied at 21 per cent support. The Greens register 7 per cent support nationally.

There are several stories in the poll, which plumbed the views of 1,508 Canadians at the end of the third week of the campaign for the Oct. 14 election. In fact, the horse race is becoming an issue itself: The poll suggests Canadians are now seriously weighing what a majority Conservative government under Harper would mean.

In a speech yesterday, Harper stopped just short of saying voters should give him a majority government to protect the health of the economy.

"They can choose a strong government to keep Canada on track," Harper said. "Or they can choose a weak Parliament that will put our economic stability at risk."

Harper later told reporters he would like to see a Parliament "where we could ensure stability for some time to come, and where the opposition parties could be focused on making a positive contribution to the government's agenda rather than just trying to defeat the government at every turn or tear the government down or attack the economy of the country."

In Ontario, the Conservatives have taken a 12-point lead over the Liberals, 39 per cent to 27 per cent. The NDP are close behind the Liberals, at 25 per cent. The Greens register at 7 per cent.

The nationwide popular support needed to form a majority depends on how the vote is split among parties. Pollsters and analysts agree that 40 per cent places Harper squarely in majority territory, with sufficient popular support to win the 155 seats required for a majority government in the 308-seat House of Commons.

However, the poll shows voters could still scupper it through strategically voting to block Tory candidates.

Nationwide, a majority do not believe Harper would recriminalize abortion or repeal same-sex marriage. But in Quebec, where the Tories hope to win seats from the Bloc Québécois, most Bloc voters believe a Conservative majority would do just those things.

The Bloc, which runs candidates only in Quebec, has regained its strength, and now leads again in that province, with 39 per cent support (10 per cent in the national calculations), compared to the Conservatives' 27 per cent.

The Liberals in Quebec are at 15 per cent support, and the NDP at 12 per cent.

Heading into the second half of the campaign, with the leaders' televised debates coming up on Wednesday (French-language) and Thursday (English-language), much is at stake as voters ponder a Conservative majority.

More than half of Liberal voters (54 per cent), and almost half of NDP (47 per cent), and Green (44 per cent) voters would seriously consider "strategically" switching their votes against their preferred candidate if it looks like another party has a better shot at winning, and could block a Conservative.

That's a worry not just for Harper, but for Dion too, says Mario Canseco, of the Angus Reid firm.

"When you look at it, there are 60 per cent of Canadians who don't want to vote for the Tories," said Canseco.

The problem for Harper's rivals is that his opposition is split among four parties in key regions, he said.

The traditional Liberal base is eroding, and "as the campaign progresses, Layton is really gaining and seen as a much more interesting leader while Dion is struggling badly," Canseco said.

Harper remains ahead of Dion and Layton in most questions on leadership qualities. The Conservative leader is seen as strong and decisive, with a vision for Canada's future, and as a good economic manager. More than half of respondents believe Dion cares for the environment, but he falters badly in the other categories.

Dion said yesterday he's not paying heed to questions about his leadership or the campaign, including doubts in the Liberal ranks.

"I don't worry at all because I'm fighting in this race for my country. And I know that Liberals are everywhere to fight for our country," he said.

Layton's weakness remains economic management. Just 16 per cent regard the NDP leader as someone who can steer the economy effectively.

When it comes to who is the preferred prime minister, Harper gets the nod from 33 per cent, Layton is at 18 per cent, and Dion at 9 per cent. (Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe scores 3 per cent and Green Leader Elizabeth May 2 per cent.)

Dion's poor performance registers when you look at the intentions of voters who cast ballots for the Liberal party in the 2006 election: 21 per cent now say they will vote Conservative, 13 per cent will vote NDP, and 6 per cent say they'll vote Green.

Harper's leadership has not shown a lot of positive momentum, but Dion is doing worse.

The Tories' 40 per cent approval rating is a two-point increase in just a week, and four points higher than its showing in the 2006 election, when the Tories won 36.3 per cent of the popular vote.

The Liberals at 21 per cent are nine points below their 2006 election showing (30.2 per cent).

A clear shift is the move among women now willing to vote Conservative (34 per cent).

Support among women for the Liberals has dropped to 21 per cent, said Canseco. The NDP polls higher among women at 26 per cent.

The survey of 1,508 Canadians was conducted Wednesday and Thursday, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

With files from Robert Benzie, Les Whittington and Bruce Campion-Smith

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