Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

Archive for November 24th, 2008

As expected the opposition wins Tachira and Carabobo for a total of five states and the Metropolitan Mayor.

We gain three states and the Metropolitan Mayor and we control States with 40% of the population where I get that number by adding the population of Libertador, assuming the Metropolitan Mayor is like a Governor, but subtracting voters from the other municipalities.

If I assume the opposition did win in Carabobo and Tachira as seems to be the case, I believe the opposition gains about the right amount at this time. If my assumption is correct, then the opposition will have gained Carabobo, Miranda and Tachira, as well as winning in the race for Metropolitan Mayor. Recall that Caracas has been a bastion of Chavismo since 1998 and now the opposition holds also four of the five municipalities in the city.

I think this is sweet. Sweet, because Chavez wasted his time banning Leopoldo Lopez and Enrique Mendoza as well as the guy from Tachira that would have won that state too. Sweet because Chavez lost ground we gained it and in a country that is mostly urban, we won in the most important urban areas.

Tonight, as news suuggested we may have chances in other states, I begain worrying that if the opposition won a huge victory, then the upcoming economic crisis may blamed in the oppsoition. After all, the opposition did not lose Sucre, a guy who a year ago was considered Chavista lost that state to another Chavista. And you could say the same about Guarico, Cojedes and Barinas. Would it have been nice to see the Chavez Royal family lose in their corrupted state? Of course, but it was not the oppsoition who lost.

But I want Chavez and his cohorts and his National Assembly to be in full power of the Nation when the ceonomic crisis hits. Last wee, Venezuela’s oil basket hit around US$ 41 per barrel. havez and Chavismo to pay for the mismanagement of the country: Thyey should preside over it. And to give you an idea, a Venezuelan barrel of oil costs now US$ 29 to produce, as four years of inflation and a fixed exchange rate have simply made local costs prohibitely large. Unless oil prices bounce back and no matter when Chief Economist Chavez decides to devalue, inflation shoudl hit another 50% next year. Chavez and his buddies should pay for it by being in charge, by assuming responsibility over the mess created under the autocrat.

Yes, Venezuelans will ahve a rough time next year and the one after that. But this will be the case no matter who is in charge, so let Chavez do it. Lt’s see if he has enough money as he claims he does. Let’s see if he still thinks buying all of those perfectly functioning companies to satisfy his ego was the right thing to do.

Meanwhile, the opposition now has a power base to work for Venezuela as those that divided it in some states lick their wounds and hopefully dissapear from the Venezuelan political map forever.Let these Governors work and show that they are better, much better and rational than Chavismo. That they can do better for the people. And let them show that people can’t eat ideology and that not one man can decide for all of us.

Then, we should be able to win a majority and insure that Chavismo either changes or it will become another small political party.

So, it’s a sweet victory for the oppsoition and just as big as we needed (or even deserved) at this time

The Consejo Nacional Electoral finally issued its first bulltein at 11:47 PM . The first results are as follows, states without a final number are undecided. If the opposition wins Tachira and Carabobo, it will have been a good victory as it has the three most populous states in the country. However, the divisions hurt, Bolivar and Yaracuy could have been won, but the victories in Miranda and the Metropolitan Mayor are certainly sweet. Chavez may claim victory, but he must be nervous :