Vote of confidence in Burmese president's appetite for reform

Aung San Suu Kyi's landmark win shifts attention back to Thein Sein's military-backed government and 2015 general election

Burma's president, Thein Sein, has 'genuine wishes for democratic reform', says Aung San Suu Kyi, but adds she is unsure as to just how much backing he has from his government. Photograph: Edgar Su/Reuters

With Nobel laureate and democracy campaigner Aung San Suu Kyi seemingly headed to public office for the first time in Burma's history, all eyes have shifted to the military-backed government in Naypyidaw, where one-quarter of the 664 parliamentary seats are reserved for the military and where many worry that change may be much harder to achieve than both locals – and the world – had hoped.

According to unofficial estimates late on Sunday night, Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), had swept to a landslide victory, winning 40 of the 45 parliamentary seats up for grabs, including four in Naypyidaw itself. No official results were expected before Monday, however, and independent verification of the vote was not possible.

Theories abound as to why president Thein Sein, a former soldier, would be keen to introduce the recent slew of reforms that are transforming Burma. From the easing of censorship laws to the legalising of trade unions and the release of political prisoners, among them Aung San Suu Kyi, the pace of change is formidable. Burma is suddenly being reintroduced to the rest of the world.

Many have questioned the veracity of Thein Sein's motives, but Aung San Suu Kyi has staunchly defended him. At a news conference at her lakeside villa on Friday, she told reporters and international election observers that she trusts Thein Sein and his "genuine wishes for democratic reform", but warned that she is unsure as to just how much backing he has from his government. In a nation where coups have occurred and her own father was assassinated by a rival politician, the threat of an end to these reforms is palpable, says Win Myo Thu of the non-government organisation Eco-DEV in Rangoon.

"This is the question: will the military step down from parliament?" he asks. "After 1988, everyone wanted change – including the military – because the social experience [of the bloody aftermath of democratic rallies] was quite bitter. But [those in government] could not agree among themselves on the approach to change. The military saw gradual change; civil society saw sudden change. The threat of status quo … [has always been] a very big challenge."

While critics say that the true test of Burma's future lies in the 2015 general elections, Sunday's polls were an important first step with some surprise endings – not least the insinuation from Khin Nyunt, the former military intelligence chief, that he had voted for the NLD. With most former government officials and military men expected to vote for the government-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, such an admission could very well foretell the shake-up of a junta that has ruled Burma for five decades.

Hla Maung Shwe, founder of the research consortium Myanmar Egress, said that Aung San Suu Kyi's success was a vote of confidence in Thein Sein's presidency, – and new parliament – but that it was just the beginning of a long road to change. "This victory shows the democratisation of this country, yes, but this is really only the first step," he said. "We in Burma have the lowest income in the [south-east Asian] region and after 50 years of military rule, we have a government and institutions of limited capacity."

An easing of sanctions and expected influx of foreign businesses and influence would help modernise Burma, said Hla Maung Shwe, who called for greater support from the international community during this transition period. "We need more experience in capacity-building and technical know-how. If we can achieve that, then our transition to democracy will go smoothly."

According to the NLD, Aung San Suu Kyi's foremost priority when taking office will be to instigate constitutional reform. That would mean amending the law requiring 25% of the parliament to be reserved for the military, who may shirk the idea but must realise that "the future of this country is their future, and that reform in this country means reform for them as well", the 66-year-old said recently.