Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.

Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for RichardThe latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for RichardThe latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90LA tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits MyanmarPowerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.

Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and ChinaTorrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.

Quoting reedzone:This is a very impressive look for only a 45 mph. storm.

Reedzone, I guess it never made it to a TD as fast as you had thought and According to the TPC the dry air has hindered development significantly all along. Although you had mentioned several times the dry air would not be an issue for richard. Likewise the fun never really began, still kinda waiting for it to get "interesting" (for a second time now) and who knows maybe richard can reach that 50 - 60 mph...point forecasted a couple of days ago which you reminded us of yesterday that you had predicted it 2 hours before the 11pm discussion on Thursday night. You think it may happen sometime today??

Quoting ParanoidAndroid:Whatever happens, I just hope that whatever's left of Richard, even if its just tropical moisture, makes its way to those parts of Florida that need the rain.

Appreciate that PA. Not looking like it's going to happen though. Unfortunately, this may have been our last chance. With a strong La Nina firmly in place, we can expect and early onset of our dry season, above normal temps and much below normal precipitation.

Quoting pottery:Good Morning.A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

Sure hope the blog lynch mob stays away! I have never seen anything like what went on yesterday, really sad. You've been here for years and I remember when your name sake was running amok that you did a nice job with posting the realistic(although horrible) info. I guess people just want these storms to hit the US.

Anyway, I do not think poor old Richard is doing too much at the moment and he may be on land, or to near it to do much more.

I seen the sun comin' up at the funeral at dawnThe long broken arm of human lawNow it always seemed such a wasteShe always had a pretty faceSo I wondered how she hung around this place.....Link

Sure hope the blog lynch mob stays away! I have never seen anything like what went on yesterday, really sad. You've been here for years and I remember when your name sake was running amok that you did a nice job with posting the realistic(although horrible) info. I guess people just want these storms to hit the US.

Anyway, I do not think poor old Richard is doing too much at the moment and he may be on land, or to near it to do much more.

Quoting pottery:Good Morning.A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

I wonder if that has anything to do with cutting down the forest?

Oh of course not, in this country you would be called a liberal for thinking of such thoughts (liberal=bad juju). I can see the rain forest from my house.

Good Morning.A news item at BBC website on the conditions in the Upper Amazon basin.The Amazon River is at record low levels, with several tributaries dry and river navigation to towns and villages not possible.Emergency supplies are being delivered by air.

Quoting kmanhurricaneman:looks like richard starting that north movement

Starting "that".......no north movement is expected and I dont see it xcept for cloud movement north of center (gives appearance of some N component. The center is not for from coast...and still appears to be moving just N of west. Any north movement will be very limited with the strong ridge over gulf.

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTEDWITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THELOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSIONAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRAREDSATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THEAIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THELOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THEFLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY INTHE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOWCONFIDENCE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. AWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE INFORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AMID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DURING THATTIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OFHONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVEINLAND. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTEDSOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERSTHE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED INTHAT DIRECTION.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THEPAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROMSTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWTHESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURINGTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURASCOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECASTHAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THEINTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BEREQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.

At 6:00 AM UTC, The cyclonic storm over Myanmar moved further northeastward and weakened into a Depression. Depression, Former Cyclonic Storm Giri lays near 22.0N 95.5E, or about 40 kms east of Monywa and 60 kms west of Mandalay.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 20 knots with gusts of 30 knots. Intense convection is seen over Myanmar to the south of the system. Scattered moderate to intense convection is seen over east central and north Bay of Bengal.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would move further northeastward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 6 hours.

Copy&paste 15.8n80.4w, 16.0n80.3w, 15.9n80.7w, 15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.3w-16.2n81.7w, 16.2n81.7w-15.8n82.3w, 15.8n82.3w-15.8n82.4w, 15.8n82.4w-15.8n82.6w, pnd, 15.8n82.6w-15.793n84.29w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distance travelled over the last 12^hours.

.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions: ~25hours from now to BarraPatuca,Honduras