Stock Market & Financial Investment News

Earnings Preview: Caterpillar sees Q1 sales, profit down from prior yearCaterpillar (CAT) is expected to report first quarter earnings on Monday, April 22 before the market open with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET. Caterpillar is a manufacturer of mining and construction equipment. EXPECTATIONS: Analysts are looking for earnings per share of $1.42 on revenue of $13.72B, according to First Call. The consensus range for EPS is $1.20-$1.70 on revenue of $12.53B-$14.65B. LAST QUARTER: Caterpillar reported fourth quarter EPS of $1.04 against estimates for $1.70, though its results included a charge of $580M, or 87c per share. Q4 revenue came in at $16.08B against estimates for $16.12B. In its Q4 report, the company forecast Q1 sales and profit significantly lower on a year-over-year basis. Management said, “While we are not providing a specific sales and profit outlook for 1Q13, we are expecting that they are likely to be significantly lower than 1Q12. The middle of our full-year outlook for sales is about $2B below 2012 levels. We expect that revenue will decline more than $2B in 1Q13 compared with 1Q12. Much of the expected decline in Q1 sales is a result of the continuation of reduced production as dealers are expected to continue to lower their new machine inventories. We expect that dealer inventory reductions will be negative to sales in 1Q13, while in 1Q12 dealers increased inventory which benefited Caterpillar. Profit is also expected to be significantly lower in 1Q13 versus 1Q12—a result of lower expected sales and the negative cost impact of continuing low production levels and declining inventory.” STREET RESEARCH: Street research has been mixed in the weeks leading up to Caterpillar's Q1 earnings report. Sentiment was positive early in the quarter, but turned negative over the past month. On January 29, CLSA upgraded Caterpillar to a Buy from Outperform and raised its price target to $115 from $105. Standpoint Research initiated the shares with a Buy rating and a price target of $105 on March 20. On April 3, Goldman downgraded Caterpillar to a Neutral from a Buy, citing a reduced outlook for iron ore prices and mining equipment capital expenditures. The firm no longer saw upside to consensus estimates given the oversupplied commodity environment and lowered their price target to $101 from $116. PRICE ACTION: Caterpillar’s shares have traded approximately 17% lower since Q4’s results were released in late January. In late morning trading ahead of Monday's Q1 report, Caterpillar’s shares are up 0.2%.

Caterpillar retail trends remain negative, says Wells FargoAfter Caterpillar reported earlier that its retail sales of machine declined 14% in the three month period ending in January, Wells Fargo noted that the trend worsened from December's 12% drop and that all regions reported declines. The firm believes retail trends remain negative for Caterpillar shares, on which it keeps a Market Perform rating.

Caterpillar reports retail machines sales down 14% in three months end JanuaryCaterpillar reported in a filing that its total retail machines sales were down 14% on a three month rolling basis in January. For reference, retail sales of machines were down 12% in the period ending in December and were down 10% in the period ending in November. The company reported world Resources Industries sales down 27% in the January period, which was down fom the 22% drop in the December end period. Construction Industries world sales were down 10%, worse than the 9% drop in the December period. Total Energy & Transportation Retail Sales were up 22% in the January end period, which was the same growth rate as seen in the December period.