Friday, February 5, 2016

January 2016 Unemployment Rate, Jobs

The January Jobs Reports were released this morning, Friday, February 5. The economy added 151,000 new jobs, a smaller number than expected, while the unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.9%.

Though the number of jobs added was smaller than expected and not as large as prior months, we have continued the streak of months of consecutive growth in the number of jobs, both in the total number of jobs and in the number of private jobs. We now have 71 months of consecutive private sector job growth and 64 months of consecutive total jobs growth.

Remember that jobs numbers are seasonally adjusted, so the smaller number of jobs in January is NOT due to the release of temporary part-time Christmas workers.From the BLS Employment Situation report:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised from +252,000 to
+280,000, and the change for December was revised from +292,000 to +262,000. With these revisions,
employment gains in November and December combined were 2,000 lower than previously reported.
Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 231,000 per month. Monthly revisions result from
additional reports received from businesses since the last published estimates and the recalculation of
seasonal factors. The annual benchmark process also contributed to these revisions.

January Highlights:

151,000total new payroll jobs.

158,000 new private sector jobs.

7,000 decrease in the number of government jobs.

These numbers are lower than the 195,000 to 200,000 new jobs estimated by the various "pundits".

The unemployment rate declined slightly to 4.9%as the number of unemployed decreased slightly by 113,000 and as the number of people employed increased by 615,000. The number of people in the labor force (people working and people looking for work) increased by 502,000.

The number of people not in the labor force (people 16 years of age and older who are in school, retired, e home with children, etc.) decreased slightly by 41,000 to 94,062,000 due to the large number of people entering the labor force.

The labor force participation rate increased slightly to 62.7% due to the large number of people entering or re-entering the labor force. (The labor force participation rate has been between 62.4% and 62.7% for the past seven months.)

Year over year, we have about 1,310,000 MORE people in the labor force DESPITE large numbers of Baby Boomers retiring. Remember that there is NO ideal labor force participation rate and most of the overall decrease in the labor force participation rate is due to these large numbers of retiring Baby Boomers.

Alternate unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.9%.

The number of people working full-time increased by a large 538,000 last month.

The number of people working part-time increased by about 5,000 last month.

The number of people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY DECREASED by 34,000 and the number of people working part-time VOLUNTARILY INCREASED by 68,000.

There are 2.5 million MORE people working full-time than there were a year ago, and 120,000 FEWER people working part-time than a year ago.

As mentioned above, the BLS increased the November jobs numbers from +252,000 to +280,000 but decreased the October numbers from +292,000 to +262,000.Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged a very healthy 231,000 per month.

Since Obama took office (January 2009):

9.2 million MORE jobs in total

9.8 million MORE private sector jobs

8.4 million MORE people working

7.3 million MORE people working full-time

987,000 MORE people working part-time

2.1 million FEWER people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY

Since the "trough" of the recession in late 2009/early 2010:

13.6 million MORE jobs in total

14 million MORE private sector jobs

12.5 million MORE people working

12.6 million MORE people working full-time.

37,000 MORE people working part-time.

3.4 million FEWER people working part-time INVOLUNTARILY.

January 2016 reports: (As usual, notation on the links will be changed to "UPDATED for January" when the updated reports become available later today or over the weekend. Not all reports are updated every month.)

More highlights and reports will continue to be posted here throughout the day and over the weekend. Please check back!

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