Fear of Pyrrhic victory

The Palestinians are expected to win the UN General Assembly vote by an overwhelming margin, according to UN diplomats. To date, 132 countries have recognised the state of Palestine.

“I think that the great majority of nations will vote with us because there is a global consensus on the two-state solution," said Riyad Mansour, the Palestinians' UN representative, adding that 60 states have agreed to co-sponsor the resolution.

Supporters hope the vote will provide a much- needed political boost to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, whose Fatah party has been eclipsed in recent weeks by rival Hamas, the militant movement whose fortunes have risen with those of its Islamist allies in Egypt and elsewhere.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said his country would back the Palestinian quest, telling the French Parliament on Tuesday that Paris would support a resolution recognising Palestine as an observer state, the same status accorded to the Vatican.

The vote is likely to roil UN diplomatic waters and highlight a rift in Europe over Palestinian statehood. It is also likely to provoke a diplomatic backlash from Israel and concern in Washington.

“We fear Abbas is heading for a dangerous Pyrrhic victory," said a senior European diplomat. “If the Palestinians believe it will push the Israelis into a negotiation, we don't believe that. It might backfire for Abbas."

The Obama administration has struggled to balance its support for Palestinian statehood and its endorsement of the Palestinian Authority's position as the legitimate Palestinian leader while opposing the push for UN recognition. US officials say a negotiated settlement with Israel is the only way to establish a Palestinian state.

The position of the Palestinian Authority has been undermined by the recent clashes between Israel and militants in the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by Hamas.

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The ceasefire reached after eight days of fighting has been viewed as a victory for Hamas in many quarters, and the group is now negotiating with Israel through Egypt. The Palestinian Authority and the secular Fatah party, on the other hand, were sidelined and appeared almost powerless.

Britain, France and other European powers have privately sought to persuade the Palestinians to include language in the resolution ruling out any intention to pursue war-crimes prosecutions against Israeli troops.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague was due to make a statement to Parliament on Wednesdayon whether Britain would support a motion at the United Nations General Assembly to give the Palestinians statehood.