OPINION: Declining demand means new Transource line not needed

About 40 people lined up in front of farm equipment at Sunny Acres Farm on Fetterhoff Chapel Road, Mont Alto, to protest the proposed Transource power transmission line on Saturday, Oct. 14.(Photo: Amber South, Public Opinion)Buy Photo

Transmission lines are typically added for reliability reasons, or because the demand for power is increasing in the area. Both of these are not reasons to add a transmission line in this area.

Ask yourself, “Is my power currently unreliable?” I have lived in Franklin County for 12 years. In that period I have only been without power because of an outage for about two hours. And that was because of an accident that knocked down a pole. Power delivery here is very reliable.

Is there an increasing demand for power in this area? This question is a little more complicated, but the answer again is no. There are several reasons for the answer being no, and PJM studies show the demand for power is declining slightly in its territory. There are several reasons for a decline so let's examine them.

First, the population in Pennsylvania is declining. Census data and Penn State’s projections show that 40 or more of the 67 Pennsylvania counties are suffering a decline in population. Pennsylvania lost a representative as a result in the 2016 national election. While Franklin County has shown modest growth, every county from Fulton County west to the Ohio border along the Mason Dixon line is showing declining population.

Fewer people means reduced residential demand and reduced commercial demand (fewer shoppers). In Maryland, Washington County shows modest growth, but Allegheny and Garrett counties show declines, and the decline offsets the increase.

But there are two bigger reasons for the decline in the demand for power. The first is efficiency. Every time you and I replace a light bulb we contribute to making our home more energy efficient. We use a CFL bulb or an LED in place of an incandescent. Those bulbs are more efficient while supplying the same light. Every time we buy a new appliance, a dishwasher, an oven, a clothes washer, or a freezer it is more energy efficient than the one we retired.

Current products in all these areas are much more efficient than the ones we have owned for 10 or more years. Manufacturers have accomplished amazing improvements in energy efficiency in the last 10 to 15 years. So every decision by the homeowner in these areas, reduces residential demand. And the trend will continue.

The second reason for declines in demand for power is rooftop solar. Homeowners in Franklin and Washington counties, as well as homeowners in all of Pennsylvania and Maryland, are steadily adding rooftop solar arrays to their homes. Solar panels are becoming larger in power output, up 35% in the last six years from 230 watts per panel to more than 300 watts per panel. And the cost per watt is decreasing from $7.25 per watt in 2010 to about $4 per watt in 2018.. There are currently 19,191 rooftop arrays in Pennsylvania with a power output of 346.6 MW, and in Maryland the numbers are 52,404 rooftop arrays with 779.9 MW of power output.

These figures are from SEIA ( Solar Energy Industry Association ). SEIA projects that another 1,065 MW of rooftop power will be added in Pennsylvania and Maryland in the next five years. So if there is any increase in power demand rooftop solar will likely handle it and that power is far more efficient than utility power because it is generated in the local area.

So in summary, is your current power unreliable? The answer is clearly no. And is there a need for additional utility power? The answer again is clearly no. So the answer to the need for a new transmission line is “Thanks, but no thanks.” It is not needed here.

There is one final reason to say no. The utility industry has a poor record of bringing generation and transmission projects on line both on time and within budget. An example currently in the news is the prohibitive cost overruns for the nuclear plants in South Carolina. Those plants are so far behind in schedule and over budget in cost that they will likely be abandoned. But the rate payer will still be saddled with the cost. What all this means to those affected by the proposed transmission line, regardless of the route, is that the disruption to your life will be longer and the cost that will be added to the grid will be greater than you are currently being told. Just say, "No thank you."

Len Lindenmeyer of Fayetteville is an electrical engineer from MIT, and worked for a utility for six years.