Jobs day: Another weak number? - Treasury view on prioritization: Yeah, right - Did JPM exec lie under oath? - U.S. regulators push ahead in face of complaints from abroad

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WELCOME TO JOBS DAY: ANOTHER WEAK NUMBER? — Fairly muted expectations for this morning’s April jobs number as the fiscal drag takes hold. Big question is whether it’s really bad (sub-100,000), just OK (100,000 to 250,000) or surprisingly good (150,000 to 200,000-plus). … Moody’s Mark Zandi emails: “Anything south of a 100,000 job gain would be disconcerting, particularly if hours worked also declined. It would suggest that the fiscal drag from the tax increases and government spending cuts are doing significant damage sooner than anticipated.

“Anything north of 150,000 would be viewed positively, suggesting that if growth is slowing, it is a modest and manageable slowdown. … I expect April payroll employment to increase by 120,000 and unemployment to hold steady at 7.6 percent. Average hourly earnings will increase by 0.2 percent and average weekly hours will dip to 34.5 hours.”

HFE’s Jim O’Sullivan: “The lower-than-expected jobless claims reading in the latest week — down 18,000 to 324,000 — provides a counterpoint to the weaker-than-expected ADP reading. … We still expect technical factors to hold down the rise in payrolls in today’s report — we forecast 135,000 — but the lack of an uptrend in claims has reinforced our view that the underlying trend in employment growth has not weakened significantly from what had been at least 170,000 per month. As usual, we view the claims series as a trend indicator rather than a reliable guide to monthly swings in payrolls.

Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson: “We can’t hold this view with much confidence, given the +/-100,000 margin of error, but 100,000 is consistent with our view that the ADP report tends to overstate payroll gains at time when very small businesses are cutting back hiring. … Unless the April ADP report is spectacularly wrong, and the March payroll numbers are revised up very substantially, the key story here is that job growth has slowed in the past couple of months, along with a raft of other data on economic activity.”

TREASURY VIEW ON PRIORITIZATION: YEAH RIGHT – Treasury Department officials have never accepted the notion, put forward in GOP legislation in the House, that they could pick which bills to pay if the nation breaches its $17 trillion debt ceiling this summer with no agreement to raise the limit. That view has not changed, per CNBC’s John Harwood on Thursday: “I spoke to a senior administration official … they are adamantly opposed to this bill. They say it would spook financial markets. That even if you meet your obligations to bond holders, that, in fact, if you defer any obligations that the government has committed to, in a practical sense, that is default. That is going to frighten financial markets.

“That is going to affect future Treasury auctions, and so this is the beginning of the negotiation that's going to play out for some time. I talked to a staff member of the House leadership: They don't expect this to become law. They expect it to die in the Senate. Some of their base want to have this vote. But we don't know what the actual, practical solution is ultimately going to be and when it will take place.”

TOP TALKER: DID JPM EXEC LIE UNDER OATH? — NYT’s Jessica-Silver Greenberg and Ben Protess on Page A1: “Government investigators have found that JPMorgan Chase devised ‘manipulative schemes’ that transformed ‘money-losing power plants into powerful profit centers,’ and that one of its most senior executives gave ‘false and misleading statements’ under oath. The findings appear in a confidential government document, reviewed by The New York Times, that was sent to the bank in March, warning of a potential crackdown by the regulator of the nation’s energy markets. … In a meeting last month at the bank’s Park Avenue headquarters, the [OCC] … delivered an unusually stark message to Jamie Dimon, the chief executive and chairman: The nation’s biggest bank was quickly losing credibility in Washington.

“The bank’s top lawyers, including Stephen M. Cutler, the general counsel, have also cautioned executives about the bank’s regulatory problems, employees say. … In the energy market investigation, the enforcement staff of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission … intends to recommend that the agency pursue an action against JPMorgan over its trading in California and Michigan electric markets. The 70-page document also took aim at a top bank executive, Blythe Masters. … The agency’s investigators claimed that Ms. Masters had ‘falsely’ denied under oath her awareness of the problems and said that JPMorgan had made ‘scores of false and misleading statements and material omissions’ to authorities.” http://nyti.ms/YqFqLv

THIS MORNING ON POLITICO PRO FINANCE – Zachary Warmbrodt and Kate Davidson on the international tensions over derivative and foreign banking rules. … To learn more about Pro's subscriber-only coverage -- and to get Morning Money every day before 6 a.m. -- please contact Pro Services at (703) 341-4600 or info@politicopro.com.

GOOD FRIDAY MORNING — Knicks-Celtics Game 6 tonight in Boston; Nets-Bulls Game 7 tomorrow night in Brooklyn. Big hoops weekend for NYC. M.M. is taking Knicks in six, Nets in seven. As always, send your tips and comments: bwhite@politico.com; and follow on Twitter: @morningmoneyben and @POLITICOPro.

DRIVING THE DAY — April jobs report at 8:30 a.m. expected to show a gain of 140,000 with no change to the 7.6 percent jobless rate and hourly wages up 0.2 percent … Factory orders at 10 a.m. expected to dip 3 percent on lower aircraft orders … ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 a.m. expected to slip to 54.0 from 54.5 … President Barack Obama delivers remarks at the Anthropology Museum in Mexico City … In the afternoon, the president will depart Mexico City, Mexico, en route to San Jose, Costa Rica … In the evening, the president and Costa Rican President Laura Chinchilla will hold a press conference at the National Center for Art and Culture. … SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White speaks this morning at the ICI meeting in D.C. and is expected to discuss money fund regulation (more below).

** A message from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: The Fourth Annual Fiscal Summit, “Facing the Future,” will take place in Washington, DC on May 7. Speakers will include President Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Representative Paul Ryan and other leading policymakers and economic experts. Visit www.FiscalSummit.com to learn more. To request an invitation: fiscalsummitRSVP@pgpf.org. **

BUFFETT TWEETS! — @WarrenBuffett sent his first tweet — “Warren’s in the house” — during a conversation with Fortune magazine at the University of Nebraska College of Business Administration, Mammel Hall. Video: http://cnnmon.ie/132qLEW. Photo, courtesy of the University of Nebraska: http://bit.ly/122RSy5

OBAMA’S WEEK OF POKE-IN-THE-EYE PICKS — POLITICO’s Glenn Thrush: “President Barack Obama’s charm offensive took a brief hiatus this week with his decision to appoint a pair of poke-in-the-eye nominations meant to shore up Democrat support — at the expense of irking his potential new Republican friends. The big pick, in terms of headline potential and Obama’s personal involvement, came on Thursday morning with the Commerce secretary nomination of Chicago financier and longtime Obama campaign fundraiser Penny Pritzker, whose family ties to a subprime lender, offshore bank accounts and the labor strife-wracked Hyatt hotel chain are likely to make for lively confirmation hearings.

“But the more controversial selection — and vastly more consequential in terms of real-world policy decisions — came earlier in the week, when Obama tapped … Democratic Rep. Mel Watt to head the [FHFA]. … Watt’s hearings are likely to reignite the bitter partisan battle over the fate of twin agencies that Republicans blame for the cataclysm of 2008 — and entities that Democrats view as key weapons in fighting the war on equality of opportunity for homeowners. Taken together, the new nominations vividly illustrate Obama’s challenging second-term balancing act: The permanent roadblock of the House GOP forces him to build new bridges to Senate Republicans — while his increasing need for financial and political support from Democrats means burning them.” http://bit.ly/133VXEK

SURPRISE! — Thrush sources expect BOTH Pritzker and Watt to be confirmed by “fairly narrow majorities” in the Senate. On Watt, this contradicts the view held across much of Wall Street that Watt’s views on mortgage principal reduction make him nearly unconfirmable.

ECB CUTS RATES BUT MAY NOT DO MORE – FT’s Michael Steen in Bratislava: “The European Central Bank cut its main interest rate on Thursday, but opposition from a German official in the bank’s inner sanctum highlighted the constraints to further action. Facing diminished prospects for an economic recovery … the ECB cut its main refinancing rate by a quarter percentage point to 0.50 percent, and Mario Draghi, ECB president, said the bank remained ‘ready to act if needed.’ … In further dovish comments, Mr. Draghi added that he kept an ‘open mind’ about imposing negative interest rates, under which commercial banks would effectively be charged for depositing money at the central bank. …

“Jörg Asmussen, who also sits on the ECB’s six-person executive board and is usually a staunch Draghi ally, voted against the cut, according to people familiar with the deliberations. Mr. Asmussen had publicly questioned the efficacy of a cut ahead of the vote. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, the only other German on the ECB’s governing council, voted in favour of the cut. But the Bundesbank shared Mr. Asmussen’s scepticism that the cut would have any effect on market interest rates. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the ECB keeps its minutes secret for 30 years. … Mr. Asmussen’s dissent follows comments by Angela Merkel, German chancellor, last week that the ECB would raise interest rates if it was looking at Germany in isolation.” http://on.ft.com/102IYn6

REGULATORS STRUGGLE OVER BASEL III LEVERAGE RATIO — American Banker’s Donna Borak: “Regulators are closely examining whether to lift a proposed leverage ratio as part of a deal to finalize the implementation of Basel III … The agencies appear to be at loggerheads over a final deal, according to observers, with the [FDIC] pushing for a higher leverage ratio but facing resistance from the [Fed and OCC]. …

“Both FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig and Jeremiah Norton have made the case in recent speeches against what they see as the current proposal's overreliance on a risk-based system, endorsing a push for a tougher leverage ratio. Observers said Fed officials are weighing whether to agree to raise the ratio in order to salvage inter-agency talks.” http://bit.ly/18xm1Yv

SIMON JOHNSON FIRES BACK AT DAVIS POLK ON TBTF — MIT’s Simon Johnson: “Davis Polk is completely wrong. … On key points of law, the Davis Polk analysis is less than complete. … In effect, global megabanks are creating a very high level of systemic risk, a form of pollution. They should at least pay a fee. That we subsidize and therefore encourage this financial pollution makes no sense.”

TRAVELERS WINS TELLY AWARDS — Per release: “The Travelers Companies, Inc. … announced that Overdraft, the documentary underwritten by the company about the growing U.S. deficit and its implications for the American Opportunity, has received nine Telly Awards. … Overdraft took home two silver awards, the highest honor, in the informational documentary and graphic animation categories. The film also earned seven bronze awards in the political commentary, music, art direction, editing, and sound design categories.”

FIRST LOOK: NCUA LETTER TO REP. KING — The National Credit Union Administration writes to Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) with suggested changes to HR 719, the “Capital Access for Small Business and Jobs Act.” Letter: http://bit.ly/154PXyH

CFPB TARGETS AUTO LENDERS — WSJ’s Robin Sidel and Alan Zibel: “The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issued subpoenas to U.S. auto lenders over the sale of extended warranties and other financial products, according to people familiar with the investigation, expanding a civil probe that lenders say could slow the booming car-loan industry. Any new restrictions could affect millions of Americans who use loans to buy new and used vehicles each year. Add-on products, such as extra insurance, are a popular mechanism used by car dealers to boost profits.

“Though such products are legal, regulators are probing whether terms and prices are adequately disclosed. The CFPB has pursued a similar strategy with credit card companies, fining them over the use of deceptive marketing practices to sell products like identity-theft protection. The Justice Department, meanwhile, is probing auto dealerships that make their own loans to customers with poor credit and charge higher rates, said Jon Seward, deputy chief of the department's housing and civil enforcement section, at a panel discussion at George Mason University on Thursday.” http://on.wsj.com/13QLtrd

BANGLADESH FEARS CORPORATE EXODOUS — NYT’s Steven Greenhouse: “A day after the Walt Disney Company disclosed that it was ending apparel production in Bangladesh, that country’s garment manufacturers expressed alarm that other Western corporations might follow Disney’s lead. They feared that could bring about a potential mass exodus that would devastate Bangladesh’s economy. … Mohammad Fazlul Azim, a member of the Bangladesh Parliament and an influential garment factory owner, implored brands not to leave Bangladesh, noting that many factories did comply with safety standards. …

“Factory owners in Bangladesh as well as Western apparel retailers have faced intense pressure from governments, consumers and labor groups to improve workplace safety there after a building containing five garment factories collapsed last week outside the nation’s capital, killing more than 430 people. Several Western retailers indicated on Thursday that they were considering new plans to ensure factory safety, efforts that would require investing in, rather than abandoning, their operations in Bangladesh. But few have made financial commitments to upgrade unsafe factory buildings or to endorse tougher and deeper inspections.” http://nyti.ms/13QLThh

SEC EYES ‘PRIME FUNDS’ — WSJ’s Andrew Ackerman: “U.S. securities regulators, under pressure to address risks posed by the $2.6 trillion money market-mutual fund industry, are considering a scaled-back approach that would tighten rules for about half of the sector that is seen as most vulnerable to investor runs. … The approach, one of several being contemplated at the [SEC], would require only the riskiest funds to abandon their fixed $1 share price and allow shares to float in value like other mutual funds, these people said. …

“Such a move would be a win for the industry, which balked at last year's effort to require money managers to float all of their funds' share prices or have the funds post bank like capital. The SEC abandoned that approach after then-SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro was unable to secure enough votes. The ability to resolve long-standing concerns about money funds is a crucial early test for SEC Chairwoman Mary Jo White. … Ms. White is expected to touch on the issue in her first public speech Friday before the Investment Company Institute, a mutual-fund trade group.” http://on.wsj.com/16wVeid

** A message from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation: The Fourth Annual Fiscal Summit, "Facing the Future," will take place in Washington, DC on May 7. As policymakers move beyond the short-term fixes that have driven fiscal policy in recent years, the 2013 Fiscal Summit will convene the nation's most influential elected leaders, thinkers, and fiscal policy experts to examine how the decisions we make today define our nation's future. Participants will include President Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Patty Murray, Representative Paul Ryan, Representative Chris Van Hollen, Director of the National Economic Council Gene Sperling, Admiral Mike Mullen, Carly Fiorina, David Brooks, Susan Dentzer, Juan Enriquez, Dr. Harvey Fineberg, Dr. Mark McClellan and others. Visit www.FiscalSummit.com to learn more. Email fiscalsummitRSVP@pgpf.org to request an invitation. Follow on Twitter at @FiscalSummit. **

CORRECTION:An earlier version of Morning Money misstated the group that sent a letter to Rep. Peter King. The National Credit Union Administration, or NCUA, sent the letter.