Why waste everyone’s time? Let’s skip the appetizers
and get to the meaty stuff right now: The Morgan silver dollars poised to
increase the most in value in the years ahead are the
1895,
1892-CC,
1894,
1878-CC, and the
1883-CC. Pretty bold prediction, eh? At this point, the
reader now has three options: (1) Stop reading and act upon this
information, (2) Stop reading and get on with life, or (3) Continue on,
evaluate the analytical approach to identify the “Top Five” Morgan
dollars, and then implement a variation of (1) or (2) above. If you’ve
gotten this far, we encourage you to continue on with option (3).

First,
a little background info on the Morgan silver dollar…

The Morgan silver dollar is today one of the most popular of all
collector coins. First minted in 1878 following the passage of the
Bland-Alison Act, the new dollar was named after its designer, George T.
Morgan. Political pressure by powerful silver mining companies, in a
gambit to stabilize the price of their commodity at artificially high
levels, created the impetus driving the legislative action. Bland-Alison
led to the overproduction of silver dollars, resulting in millions of
these unused “cartwheels” languishing in bank and Treasury vaults. Indeed,
few coins have ever been released under more dubious circumstances than
Morgan silver dollars. Minting continued until 1904, and then again for
one more year in
1921, when the series finally came to a close.

For decades thereafter, Morgan dollars were largely snubbed by
hobbyists. Many dates, including those in mint state condition, could be
obtained for as little as $1.00. This situation shifted dramatically in
1962, when the US government began selling original 1000-piece silver
dollar Treasury bags to the public at face value. Stories of rare dollar
finds circulated widely, touching off a veritable Morgan mania. Within a
matter of months, all but a small fraction of the federally owned coins
were transferred from government vaults to private hands, consequently
expanding the Morgan dollar collector base far beyond anything seen
previously.

Since then, Morgan silver dollars have proudly perched themselves atop
the catbird seat of the numismatic world. Their physical size,
availability, beauty, and historical significance have consistently
attracted herds of new buyers. Numerous boom-turned-bust cycles have come
and gone, sometimes driven by pure speculative motives, but from a
long-term perspective, most Morgan dollar prices have trended somewhat
positive.

Unlike some controversial promoters in the past, I do not propose
purchasing Morgan silver dollars simply as investment vehicles. However,
for collectors hoping to satisfy their numismatic yearnings AND acquire
coins destined to be worth substantially more in the future, Morgan
dollars do present a few opportunities. As noted above, as a whole,
Morgans have gained moderately in value over the years. The crucial
challenge, then, is to identify which members of this series have enjoyed
the best growth patterns in the past. The underlying logic is clear: coins
that have demonstrated the strongest gains over a long period of time are
the coins best positioned to show similar price advancements with the
continued passage of time.

In order to measure past performance and thus visualize Morgans most
likely headed toward a bullish future, I developed a systematic approach.
First, I researched individual Morgan dollar retail prices as they existed
in 1950, for a broad range of conditions, and entered this data on a
computer spreadsheet. Moving forward in time, values from the years 1980,
1995, and 2000 were likewise recorded. Finally, estimated selling prices
in 2005 were juxtaposed with counterpart data from those earlier years.
Because grading terminology has evolved over the 55 year period, certain
assumptions were made to progressively track price movements throughout
the time spectrum (e.g. an “Uncirculated” value in 1950 is equivalent to
the “MS-60” of today).

For each date and condition, compounded annual return rates were
computed from 1950 to 2005. [Editorial note: compounded annual return rate
is the accepted yardstick for comparing investment performance. Of course,
coins do not grow at a guaranteed uniform rate, such as bonds do, but if a
coin is purchased at a certain price, and that price is compared with the
value of the coin at some later date, the compounded annual return rate
can be calculated for the time period in between]. Return rate
computations were made from 1980 to 2005, 1995 to 2005, and 2000 to 2005.
For each Morgan dollar, the data was placed in tabular format.

Next, I calculated a “composite” score for each date by averaging all
the compounded return rates computed for that date. I then ranked all the
“composite” scores. The Morgan silver dollars with the highest scores are
as follows:

So, it would appear, based on past performance over a period of 55
years, the 1895 is the Morgan silver dollar with the best hope of
appreciating significantly in the years ahead, followed by the 1892-CC,
1894, 1878-CC, and 1883-CC. Not surprisingly, dollars of the Carson City
Mint occupy 13 of the top 16 positions, thanks to persistent collectors
scrambling for bona fide artifacts of the romantic American West. On the
opposite end of the rankings, Morgan silver dollars having the bleakest
long term prospects include the 1898, 1899-O, 1884, and the 1888-O,
followed by the 1897 coming in dead last with a score of 2.66.

Anyone whose dual objective is to acquire Morgan silver dollars with a
bullish future ought to begin looking at the “Top Five” above. Purchase
coins in the best condition you can afford, but be sure the coins are
clean, problem-free, and CERTIFIED by a reputable grading service. Be
prepared to hold for at least five years. Morgan dollars have skyrocketed
in value in the last three years, so some cooling off may be in order
before the next upward cycle.

If a polling firm were to survey the population of US coin collectors,
it is very possible that Morgan silver dollars would win the vote as the
most appealing coin in American coinage history. These beautiful coins
have been the heartbeat of the hobby for many years, with no retreat in
sight. Ironically, these same coins spent the better part of a century
hidden away in government vaults, unseen, unwanted, and unloved. My, how
times have changed!

Author Daniel J. Goevert is the webmaster of US Coin Values Advisor (http://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com),
specializing in coin value trends and listing bullish US coins. Other
offerings include detailed coin collecting advice as well as an
illustrated history of the United States and the US Mint.