According to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, U.S. banks registered their biggest full-year decline in total loans outstanding in 67 years.

More than 5% of all loans were at least three months past due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected. The problems are expected to last through 2010.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair believes the number of bank failures in 2010 will likely increase from the 140 recorded last year.

Tracking the Nation's Bank Failures

A survey by the Federal Reserve showed banks have slowed their efforts due to 1) the tightening lending standards put into place over the past two years and 2) a slowing demand for loans from businesses and consumers.

In addition, according to according to the FDIC, the number of U.S. banks at risk of failing hit a 16-year high at 702.

FDIC Problem Institutions

More than 5% of all loans were at least three months past due, the highest level recorded in the 26 years the data have been collected. And the problems are expected to last through 2010.

Initiatives such as the Obama administration’s $30 billion small business lending program will rely on banks making loans at a time when many of those same firms are wrestling with a rising tide of commercial real estate problems or being told to add to their reserves by regulators.

Bank Report-FDIC Portrait

One issue complicating banks’ ability to lend is the looming problem of troubled commercial-real-estate loans. The FDIC’s report revealed that asset-quality indicators for banks continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter as borrowers continued to fall behind on their loans. Banks wrote down $53 billion in loans in the final three months of last year. The quarterly write-off rate was the highest ever recorded in the 26 years the FDIC has collected the data. A total of $391.3 billion of all loans and leases, or 5.4%, were at least three months past due at the end of 2009.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the U. S. entered an economic recession in December 2007. According to Smith Travel Research (STR), the U.S. lodging industry first began to show signs of weakness in July 2006, well before other business when year-over-year demand levels contracted by 14%. Total hotel demand declined 1.8% in 2008 and according to Hospitality Research total year decline in demand in 2009 of 6.3%.

The U.S. Gross Domestic Product grew 3.5% in the third quarter of 2009 as the recession ended after eight (8) quarters. PKF forecasts that the nine consecutive quarters of declining demand for U.S. hotels that began in the first quarter of 2008 will come to an end in the second quarter of 2010

As in past recessions, less demand leads to reduced construction of additional supply typically persisting three years past the beginning of the economic recession.

According to PKF, analysis of the data relating to the current 2007 recession reveals a distinctly different experience. Supply growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was approximately 1.7%, slightly below the long-run average level of 1.9%. Contrary to the previous downturns, room capacity following the start of this recession expanded in 7 of the 8 quarters immediately following. The current PKF forecast calls for above-average supply growth into the first quarter of 2010, the tenth month following the start of this recession.

Hotel Supply Growth Patterns

While economic declines always lead to lower levels of lodging demand growth, following the start of the 1990 recession demand levels did not contract until one year after the recession began. This was different from the demand declines that were realized almost immediately when the 2001 and 2007 recessions began. The subsequent stigma associated with travel away from home was a major factor following the events of 9/11, while in the 2007 recession, the simultaneous occurrence of a stock market crash, the bursting of the housing bubble and the erosion of credit availability resulted in a severe economic downturn. As a result, significantly levels of reduced lodging demand occurred immediately.

Hotel Demand Growth Patterns

The current severity of the disconnect between the property cycle (supply increasing) and the business cycle (demand contracting) this time around is nearly ten-times as large as what was experienced in 1990-93 and twice as large as that realized in 2001-2004.

According to the December edition of PKF-HR’s Hotel Horizons, average daily rates will begin to realize their first year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter of 2010, representing the end of eight consecutive quarters of decline that began in the fourth quarter of 2008.

According to the PKF report, extraordinary declines lead to above-average recoveries, and they expect such will be the case with the current cycle. After the past two recessions, demand grew a cumulative 12.5% during the three-year period commencing the quarter after which the recession ended. The December 2009 Hotel Horizons® states that demand grow will be more than twice that amount as the industry recovers from the current recession. This demand growth will lead to the absorption of the new rooms that have been overwhelming many markets. They believe that above-average increases in room rates will commence in the second half of 2011.

According to a recent report from Zillow.com, 47% of South Florida (Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach) houses were in “negative equity” as of December, 2009, a 4 percent increase from the previous year . In the Treasure Coast (Indian River, St. Lucie, and Martin counties), the picture is even worse. There, 65.7 percent of borrowers are upside down.

The recent STR/TWR/Dodge Construction Pipeline Report indicates a dramatic decline in the total active U.S. hotel development pipeline. The report represents a 35.9% decrease in the number of rooms in the total active pipeline compared to January 2009. The total active pipeline data includes projects in the In Construction, Final Planning and Planning stages, but does not include projects in the Pre-Planning stage.

Midscale without F&B continues to lead all Chain Scales with rooms in construction. Hotels in this segment include such brands as Holiday Inn Express, Hampton Inn & Suites and Candlewood Suites. While this segment is the most active of all segments, it is still down over 31.6% compared to last January.

U.S. Pipeline by Chain Scale Segment

Number of Rooms and Percent Change (January 2010 vs. January 2009)

Chain Scale

Existing Supply

% Change

In Construction

% Change

Total Active Pipeline

% Change

Luxury

107,748

6.3%

3,116

-59.4%

6,431

-53.1%

Upper Upscale

601,152

2.4%

9,110

-48.8%

20,226

-48.2%

Upscale

510,897

9.4%

22,449

-58.7%

85,379

-42.2%

Midscale w/ F&B

510,063

0.4%

6,633

-25.3%

21,904

-26.5%

Midscale wo/ F&B

826,656

6.3%

31,040

-51.0%

116,490

-31.6%

Economy

766,875

0.9%

3,828

-60.4%

9,130

-55.5%

Unaffiliated

1,513,538

1.9%

12,294

-56.8%

118,585

-29.8%

Total

4,836,929

2.9%

88,470

-53.5%

378,145

-35.9%

Among the Chain Scale segments, five of the seven segments reported decreases of more than 50 percent of rooms in the In Construction phase. The Economy segment experienced the largest decrease, falling 60.4%, followed by the Luxury segment (-59.4%) and the Upscale segment (-58.7%). The Midscale without Food and Beverage segment ended the month with the most rooms in the In Construction phase with 31,040 rooms.

According to findings from Jones Lang LaSalle’s annual 2010 Lenders’ Production Expectations Survey, 43% percent of respondents expect their loan production to range from $2 to $4 billion in 2010, a number that is more than double the rate that lenders reported in the 2009 survey.

Senior officials at Jones Lang stated that with more than $1 trillion worth of commercial real estate loans expected to mature between now and 2013, a majority of borrowers are placing significant importance on restructuring loans. However, many financial institutions don’t want to hold on to assets and now are coming to terms with the fact that they can no longer ‘extend and pretend’. They’re now realizing it makes good sense to move these assets off their balance sheets to create greater ability to originate loans this year.

The survey expressed the following quotes for average debt coverage ratios:

• Life companies: 2.25 for hotels, 1.30 for multifamily, 1.40 for office, 1.60 for retail, and 1.50 for industrial.

• CMBS: 1.35 for hotels, 1.25 for office, 1.20-1.25 for retail, and 1.20 to 1.25 for industrial.

• Banks: 1.50 for hotels, 1.35 for multifamily, 1.50 for office, 1.50 for retail, and 1.50 for mixed-use.

• Private equity: 1.15 for multifamily, 1.20 for office, 1.20 for retail, 1.30 for industrial, and 1.30 for mixed-use.

The sectors that most lenders would most prefer to lend, include multifamily and office.

The hotel sector stands out as the sector to which lenders are least likely to lend, although a select number of lenders indicated an interest in hotel investments given their belief that the sector is at bottom.

A small amount of lending returned to the Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) market in 2009 with nearly $1 billion in loans. 48% of respondents say they expect CMBS issuance to range from $0 to $10 billion in 2010, while 27 percent predict production of $10 to $20 billion and an additional 21 percent with $20 to $30 billion expectations. In 2011, the greatest number of respondents (38%) expects CMBS issuance of between $20 to $30 billion.

The survey indicated a significant increase in the number of lenders who are selling performing and non-performing loans. These lenders are prepared to accept significant discounts in 2010 to create liquidity and to rid themselves of these non-core or problem assets. For performing loans, 29% of respondents indicated they are selling performing notes at 90 cents on the dollar and another 24% are selling performing loans between 70 cents and 80 cents on the dollar.

According to a report by the Congressional Oversight Panel dated February 10, 2010, over the next several years, failed commercial real estate loans could litter American cities with empty stores and office complexes cause hundreds of bank failures and weaken the economy.

The report, entitled Commercial Real Estate Losses and the Risk to Financial Stability states that banks face up to $300 billion in losses on loans made for commercial property and development. The Congressional Oversight Panel monitors the government’s efforts to stabilize the financial system.

The report says the defaults could lead to reduced lending and cause the eviction of families from rental properties. Bank failures also could contribute to job losses and hurt the economic recovery.

Smaller banks are more vulnerable to the losses than their larger Wall Street counterparts. That’s because commercial real estate makes up a larger portion of their portfolio.

Small- and mid-size banks have been failing at the fastest rate since the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s and 1990s. The failures are due mostly to bad loans they made for commercial projects. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), which manages bank failures and insures deposits, is under stress that will intensify over the next few years. In 2009, there were 140 bank failures under the supervision of the FDIC. By comparison, there were 25 bank failures in 2008. In 2010, it has been estimated that around 200 banks under FDIC supervision could fail.

Commercial property values have fallen more than 40% in the past three years, the report notes. Some have been unable to pay the loans. Others have stopped paying because they now owe more than the properties are worth.

Unlike residential mortgages, commercial loans are refinanced every three to five years. Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will come due for refinancing. For nearly half of them, borrowers could struggle to get new financing because they’ll owe more than the properties are worth.

Last year’s tests gauged banks’ strength only through 2010. The commercial real estate threat looms largest in 2011 and beyond.

Financing troubles loom for commercial (from the Urban Land Institute)

On February 9, 2010, the Urban Land Institute held its 2010 South Florida Economic & Development Outlook Program. The consensus from a variety of local and national industry leaders gathered at the conference seems to indicate that while the real estate industry in South Florida and across the country may be showing some glimmers of hope, there still is likely to be more pain in 2010, particularly when it comes to commercial real estate financing.

Real Estate Delinquency Rates Are Increasing

While delinquencies on residential loans may be peaking, a bigger crisis may be looming in commercial real estate, as commercial mortgages come due for refinancing on projects that are underwater. Delinquencies on CMBS loans are expected to steadily increase from the current level of about 4 percent, hitting a peak in late 2012 at 12 percent.

CMBS Maturities

Trepp reported that the pace at which loans have been placed on watch list or transferred to special servicing has increased every month for the last 21 months. Today, loans in special servicing represent 10% of CMBS volume outstanding and loans on the watch list represent 20.3% of loans outstanding. If the watch list is a reasonable proxy for future default/delinquency trends, then office properties are going to be the next big stress point with 26% of all office loans (by balance) currently watch listed. In fact, while current office delinquency rates are well below lodging and multi-family rates, 44% of all office loans are in special servicing or on the watch list, as opposed to “only” 34% for lodging and 37% for multi-family.

The issue is what the industry has dubbed the game of “extend and pretend.” That refers to a tendency by lenders to extend the term of a loan in order to avoid writing down the value of the asset, which could have seen as much as a 50 percent decline.

The question is whether what happened during the savings and loan crisis, when properties were sold off at fire-sale prices by the Resolution Trust Corporation, would have yielded better results. However, since there is no government structure in place such as the RTC, the key to a successful workout is getting both lenders and owners to accept the new reality of what projects are worth. Until that happens on a large scale, any recovery is going to be hampered.

Four Demographic Trends That Affect Housing (from the Urban Land Institute)

A new report from the Urban Land Institute predicts two major changes in the U.S. housing market as we began a new decade.

Home appreciation will slow considerably to about 1 percent to 2 percent annually. The current U.S. homeownership rate, now at 67 percent (which is down from a record high of 69 percent), will fall further to about 62 percent.

The report also cites four major U.S. demographic trends that will have a major impact on housing.

Aging baby boomers (ages 55 to 64 years old): They will keep working, and many will be forced to stay in their suburban homes until values recover. Those who are able to move will choose mixed-age living environments that cater to active lifestyles. Walkable suburban town centers also will appeal to this group.

Younger baby boomers (46 to 54 years old): They are now entering their prime earning years but they will lack home equity and, unlike the older members of their generation, they won’t be able to purchase second homes. This will likely curb the prospects for the second-home market.

Generation Y: They are larger than the baby boom generation (with a population of about 86 million). As they enter the housing market, they are less interested in homeownership than their parents were when they were young adults.

Immigrants – both legal and illegal: They are nearly 40 million strong. They often prefer multi-generational households and if they can afford them, larger homes in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.

2009 New Home Sales Set Record Low (from the Palm Beach Post)

New home sales last year dropped to the lowest level in recorded history as the economy suffered continued unemployment and increasing foreclosures.

The Commerce Department said sales of newly built homes fell 23 percent nationwide in 2009 from the previous year to 374,000; the weakest showing since 1963 when sales data was first collected.

About 202,000 new homes were sold in the South last year, a 24 percent drop from 2008 and the lowest amount since 1969.

Midwest sales of new homes plummeted by 41 percent. The Northeast and West saw sales increase 43 percent and 5 percent respectively.

The housing recovery has been largely fueled by federal spending that pushed down mortgage rates and propped up demand with an up to $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit.

The National Home Builders Association is predicting more than 500,000 new home sales this year.

According to the Commerce Department, the nation had an eight month supply of new homes in December, a 28 percent drop from the previous year.

Federal Reserve to End Mortgage Purchase Program (from the Washington Post)

The cessation at the end of March of the government program to buy mortgage-backed securities will show whether the White House and Federal Reserve have effectively stimulated the lending market to the point that it is now on solid footing.

Keeping the mortgage rates at historic lows, which required a commitment of more than $1 trillion, was viewed within the administration as a central plank of the economic strategy last year, senior officials said.

Here are the facts:

The Treasury Department began to spend $220 billion in September 2008 to buy mortgage-backed securities before ending the program in December, 2009.

The Federal Reserve pledged to buy $1.25 trillion worth of mortgage-backed securities, the largest single intervention the central bank has undertaken amid the financial crisis and recession. The Fed has said it will end this program on March 31.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two firms that own or guarantee half of the nation’s $12 trillion mortgage market, were taken over by the government in September 2008. The move helped these firms borrow at low rates because lenders know they cannot fail. They passed on these savings to consumers in the form of low rates. On Christmas Eve, the Treasury said it would cover all of their losses, but said that holdings of mortgage-backed securities must be scaled back over time.

If the sector slumps again, home owners could face a new period of distress.

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors has cautioned the Fed about the sudden stoppage of this program on the housing market.

Keeping mortgage rates at record lows was a major component of the economic strategy during President Obama’s first year in office. While it did capture the kind of headlines that efforts to bail out banks did, the policy helped revitalize home buying in parts of the country and assisted millions of home owners who were able to refinance.

The effect of canceling this program could be devistating to the residential home market.

Although room demand (room nights sold) had its best quarterly performance of 2009 it was still down 1.4 percent in the 4th quarter. The report noted however that 11 of the Top 25 Markets experienced occupancy gains in the fourth quarter.

The Luxury segment was the only segment to report an increase in any of the three key metrics. The segment’s occupancy rose 1.4 percent to 60.6 percent. The Upper Upscale segment ended the quarter virtually flat with a 0.1-percent decrease to 61.1 percent.

For all of 2009, RevPAR for U.S. hotels fell 16.7%, compared to 2008; ADR and occupancy numbers were equally downbeat. ADR for the year was off 8.8%, compared to prior year, while occupancy fell 8.7%.

Houston had the greatest occupancy decline–17%–of any of the country’s top MSAs, while New York had the greatest drop in RevPAR, 26.3%.

In a recent address to the South Florida chapter of the NAIOP, Mark Dotzour, the chief economist and director of research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University was recently quoted as stating that in order for the commercial real estate market in South Florida and around the country to recover, buyers and sellers need to come to terms on the new price reality.

Dotzour predicted is that equilibrium is getting closer, and when it does there will be an influx of new money that has been sitting on the sidelines waiting.

He believes that there’s a lot of demand but they just won’t because they’re convinced it’s not priced properly.

Holding this up are the banks that don’t want to write down the value of the assets on their books and continue to play the game of “extend and pretend.” Extend and pretend is a term used to describe when a bank extends the loan coming due rather than accept the new reduced value of the real estate.

According to Dotzour, overall the current prices for commercial real estate have dropped between 35 percent and 50 percent compared to 2007 values.

Improvement in the real estate market will begin in 2010 with a stronger recovery by 2011, at which point there will be an increase in absorption of vacant space, rents will start to rise and property values will increase, Dotzour predicts.

But he also warns that buyers waiting for fire sale prices on distressed properties, like those seen during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s are going to be disappointed.

Total foreclosures in 2009 reached 2.8 million, a 21 percent increase over 2008 and a 120 percent rise compared to 2007, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Between 3 and 3.5 million homes are expected to enter some phase of foreclosure this year.

RealtyTrac also reported that fourth quarter foreclosures decreased 7 percent from the third quarter, although they were up 18 percent compared to 2008. December 2009 foreclosures were up 14 percent over December 2008.

California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois account for 50 percent of the foreclosures. The other 10 states with the largest numbers of foreclosures are Michigan, Nevada, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and New Jersey.

In its February 2010 issue, Bloomberg Markets reports the current commercial real estate downturn will overshadow all of the others.

The report quotes Kenneth Laub of New York based, Kenneth D. Laub & Co. The key difference today is the explosion in debt financing and related derivatives that fueled a run-up in commercial real estate prices in the 2000s. Laub believes that it is not a supply-demand issue but an overleveraged condition which has left property owners struggling to make mortgage payments. The overhang of debt will delay any recovery, he says.

He expects a wave of restructurings by troubled commercial borrowers as hundreds of billions of dollars of loans come due annually during the next few years. Laub believes commercial real estate may still be recovering a decade from now.

U.S. commercial property prices have plunged more than 40 percent from their October 2007 peak, while the default rate on commercial mortgages more than doubled in the third quarter of 2009 to 3.4 percent from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Moody’s Investors Service and Real Estate Econometrics.

According to Moody’s Investors Service CMBS loan delinquencies rose to 4.47% at the end of 2009. The Moody’s report said that the balance of delinquent CMBS loans stood at $6.7 billion in December 2008 and has risen by over $23 billion in the past 12 months. The delinquency rate on loans backed by hotel properties increased the most with multifamily properties second.

Working similarly to the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market that contributed to the housing bubble and financial meltdown, CMBS loans were originated by financial firms and then packaged with other loans for sale to investors as securities. Investors could buy different tranches of CMBS loans – putting them in position to take the first, the middle or the last hit on their investment if the loan loses value. These loans typically matured in four or five years. CMBS loans signed during the height of the boom at peak values have started coming due and should continue maturing through 2013.

As the number of seriously delinquent loans continues to increase, there is growing capital pressure on the special servicers. Nearly 9% of all CMBS loans have been referred to the special servicer, which includes delinquent and defaulted loans as well as loans seeking extensions or other loan modifications.

This capital pressure comes at an unfortunate time since many special servicers are struggling to remain solvent as the value of their portfolios of subordinate CMBS securities have cratered (special servicers were also active buyers of CMBS paper; that’s generally how they secured the special servicer designation in the first place).

According to C&WSG Capital Markets Update, LNR, with a special servicing portfolio of $17B, is reportedly readying itself for a bankruptcy filing. This follows on the heels of Capmark’s filing in October and closely mirrors the situations at Centerline and Anthracite. The end result may be a greater willingness to push assets out the door rather than extending loans or holding them.

C&WSG reports that as of January 2010, 13 of the 15 largest delinquent CMBS loans were secured either by New York City multi-family or lodging assets.

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