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NTIS

01/01/1988

Collation

xi, 86 p. : ill. ; 28 cm.

Abstract

Most studies on the effectiveness of interventions for reducing children's blood lead levels (PbB) have not distinguished declines in PbB due to program effectiveness from seasonal and age-related fluctuations in PbB. In this report, seasonal fluctuations and age effects in 1990-94 blood lead levels for a northern urban environment are studied, using data from 13,476 children screened for blood lead in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The purpose was to determine whether there were seasonal and age trends, and if so, to estimate the magnitude of the trends. These estimates can then be used to help interpret studies with blood lead monitoring data, especially studies on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce blood lead levels. The Milwaukee data showed sizeable seasonal and age trends in Milwaukee children's PbB levels. Blood lead levels were about 40% higher in the summer than the winter, and about 15-20% higher at ages two to three years than at ages less than one year or ages five to seven years. Statistical methodology was developed to account for these fluctuations, so that the effectiveness of intervention programs may be quantified. These estimates are being used in studies of the effectiveness of lead interventions in Milwaukee.