Of all the games on the NFL betting slate, this is the toughest to handicap for week 11 NFL picks. The Vikings take a nosedive behind a four-game losing streak while the Cards are anything but convincing this season. Following a week six bye, the Vikings have lost to the Eagles, Bears, Lions, and Redskins. All losses were shockingly bad too, so much so that by week 10 they fell out of favor on the NFL odds board and closed as the +2.5 road underdogs to the Redskins. Vikings are 5-4-0 ATS with a 2.6 winning margin and +1.1 differential versus the spread. If there’s one thing they have going for them it’s a 3-1-0 ATS mark at home with a 7.2 winning margin and +4.1 differential versus the spread. Not a whole lot to hang one’s hat on but when Cards strike an even less convincing pose on the road it’s sensible to go with the home team.

Things aren’t looking suspiciously now, but a date with the inconsistent Cardinals could prove the tonic. The Cards are 1-2-0 SU and ATS on the away with a -4.3 losing margin and a whopping -6.3 differential versus the spread. They’re coming off a narrow 23-20 win over the Niners but that’s hardly something to celebrate. Consider the woeful Niners came close to knotting the game up and sending it into overtime. Vikings aren’t playing well right now. It’s been a tough stretch for them with three out of four games on the road so perhaps that’s been a factor. This week they are back at home at the impressive US Bank of America Stadium where they’ve beaten the likes of Green Bay, NY Giants, and Houston.

If there’s one thing these outfits have in common, it’s a 3-6-0 OVER record. The difference is the way in which they arrive at such records. For the most part, the Vikings defense is the X-factor holding opponents to 18.9 points per game and overall totals for Minnesota games are generally low compared to the rest of the field. Same can’t be said for the Cards. Although they do hold opponents to 17.8 points per game offense has been inconsistent and totals for Arizona games trend much higher than they do for Minnesota games. In any event, neither offense can be trusted now. Smart bet, therefore, appears to be the UNDER for week 11 NFL picks.