Brown-Warren Polls & Endorsements

The latest poll in the Brown-Warren US Senate race shows very little movement in the race. While Warren’s favorability ratings rose more than Brown’s, there isn’t anything “game changing” about the numbers in this MassINC poll, which was taken between July 19th and 22nd.

The news that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is endorsing Scott Brown, which happened after this latest poll, may well be a significant development. Bloomberg is a popular figure nationally who is considered to be just the kind of “independent thinker” and “problem solver” Brown wants Mass voters to believe he is. The endorsement does have some potential downsides of course. Bloomberg is a New York mayor not a Massachusetts mayor and he’ll be raising money for Brown from folks with whom Brown needs to create distance. Warren’s camp signaled its focus on both of these problems concisely. According to the New York Times, Warren reacted to the news of the endorsement Thursday by saying “she had never met Mr. Bloomberg, but noted that on the day his endorsement of Mr. Brown became public, she was endorsed by a group of Massachusetts credit unions.” Warren is further quoted as saying. “Today, Scott Brown stands with Wall Street, and I stand with every credit union in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.” The endorsement is certainly a good one that will most likely add more to Brown’s campaign coffers than it will to his support among voters.

Another wrinkle in the Bloomberg endorsement is the Mayor’s stated reason. Possibly to blunt Warren’s effort to associate Bloomberg with Wall Street, the mayor made clear that his endorsement of the Bay State Republican was actually about his support for gun control, not Wall Street. “Mr. Bloomberg, through a spokesman, said his endorsement was not about Wall Street at all, but about his desire to reward Mr. Brown for voting against his party and the National Rifle Association on a gun control measure.” The tight rope Brown must walk between energizing his conservative base and persuading moderates in this election is beautifully illustrated by this endorsement. It will be interesting to see if Warren finds a way to use Brown’s support for gun control to discourage conservative voters.

About Jerold Duquette

Jerold Duquette is an associate professor of political science at Central Connecticut State University. He is the author of Regulating the National Pastime: Baseball and Antitrust and has published articles and book chapters on campaign finance reform, political parties, Massachusetts politics and political culture, public opinion, and political socialization. Professor Duquette lives in Longmeadow, MA with his wife and four children.

2 Responses to Brown-Warren Polls & Endorsements

I’m afraid Mr. Bloomberg’s reasoning is crap because Brown also opposes any law regulating guns on the federal level, which is exactly what cities like New York and Boston need in order to stem the tide of illegal guns. Massachusetts’ super strict laws are no good if people can simply import guns in from another, more loosely regulated state.

The Mayor’s reasoning does appear quite flimsy. Brown’s brave declaration is equally flimsy given that it involes a bill that has not yet made it to the Senate and that will fail regardless of his position on it. Im reminded of the NRAs intentionally quite support of GWB. While Warren’s link of Bloomberg and Brown on the Wall Street interests question is essentially S.O.P., Im not sure there is any clear evidence to support that claim either, though we shall surely see.