Roller Coaster Ride Continues

190217 – Firstly, We pray for all 44 souls of our Indian Army martyred in the Pulwama terror strike. May all the souls attain Shanti. Om Shanti.

Such a cowardice act on part of Pakistan backed terrorists. They feel they will get back Kashmir by doing all these. Fact is it’s getting tougher for them by the day.

Sensex went to highs of 37172 on 7-2-2018, the movement on the upside was as expected since I was sounding bullish on the Index in the previous two to three posts continuously. Post the highs, the market has corrected a bit more than expected and has closed at 35809 as on 15-2-2018, that’s almost 4% fall within a few days.

Sensex even at these levels looks quite decent. Sensex is actually giving a wrong picture to everyone. Fact is though Sensex is at its highs, most portfolios are in red. I should say 100% of the portfolios in the last one year has turned negative, including the Mutual Fund portfolios. Including ours, which we recommend. That’s the truth. The only difference between our portfolios and that of a naive investor will be seen during the recovery of Mid and Small cap companies.

Our portfolios will recover much faster than others. Even our MarketFastFood subscribers will see a faster recovery. In fact, we have added just one company in MFF past one month.

The broader market has been on a slide. Sensex and Nifty are up based on just a few stocks. They are today commonly called the HRITHIK stocks! No, not that Hrithik Roshan the actor owns them, just that a new word has been coined in the market. HRITHIK means:

HDFC, Reliance, Infosys, TCS, HUL, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank.

An investor can now ask why shouldn’t I buy only the Hrithik stocks and beat the market? Logically it’s a yes, you can, but will you take risk of investing only in 7 companies of which 3 are from one sector alone? If these stocks falter then life can become miserable. Hence, an advisor like me would never risk putting money in such stocks and few of them are steeply valued today!

The broader market is actually quite cheap now. Your portfolio may be in minus, still, this is the time to add more. Those who fear now will later regret missing the chance. This is not the first cycle in the market. It has happened many times in the past. Not that India is doing bad, not that Indian companies are going to close down tomorrow, not that we have bad government.

Yes, in the short term there will be heightened volatility due to elections coming up. Until then keep adding slowly. Don’t fear, this phase shall too pass.

We may get even better chances in the next few weeks/months. Pakistan has this time crossed its limits. The Indian government cannot simply let this pass. Action has already started. I don’t think there will be a full-fledged war, but things like surgical strikes, or strikes in the PoK area cannot be ruled out. Any panic situation should be used. Pakistan is bankrupt. They cannot face India. India has had huge diplomatic success in the last few years which has cornered Pakistan on all fronts.

India has already taken few steps over the weekend. These will make India emerge stronger. No country would dare to openly support Pakistan over India.

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