6.21.2009

Marc Rzepczynski's last 2 starts have been absolutely outstanding, and to prove it, here's what BA had to say about this line:

1-0, 0.64, 14 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 4 BB, 1 HBP, 16 SO

"A fifth-round pick in '07 from UC Riverside, Rzepczynski leads the EL with 88 strikeouts. On the flip side, he's also tops with 36 walks issued. But nearly half of those free passes (17) were issued in five April starts. Since then he's struck out 53 batters in 52 innings, while issuing a manageable 19 walks—or 3.3 per nine innings. Rzepczynski checks in on Hot Sheet this week for twirling seven shutout innings against Erie and then following that up by allowing only one run over seven innings to a strong Akron club. He struck out eight batters each time."

You can check out the other hot prospects here, but Marc has definitely given the Jays something to look at when they need another arm. He is maturing at a good rate and could become a strong #2 or #3 candidate that compliments Bret Cecil for a long time for the Jays. To have such great home grown talent is awesome and should allow the Jays to make a good run at resigning Doc.

I had a work week in Baddeck NS for the Silver Dart event and was unable to add to the blog during that time. I'll try to catch up with a round up of the past week.

- The Jays and Yanks have regressed a little bit over the last 10 games, both going 4-6 to be 5 and 3 games back of the Red Sox respectively. - Tuesday: Great start from Romero against the Phils, going 7 strong with 9 ks. The bullpen closed the door and 6 Jays had multiple hits in the game to score 8 runs.- Wednesday: Richmond blew the doors off the Phils, going 8 strong with 11 Ks and only allowing 1 run to score. Barajas, Hill, and Rolen each had a HR and were responsible for 6 of the Jays 7 RBIs.- Thursday: Mills got roughed up a little (4 runs allowed over 3.2 IP), but the Jays bats were able to steal this one from the Phils to sweep the series. The Jays got 1 HR from each of their catchers, and Wells and Lind went 3-5 to help them score 8 runs for the second time in 3 days.- Friday: An encouraging start for Brian Tallet who allowed 1 run over 5 innings, but the Jays bats fell silent to the Nats and Frasor blew the game in the 11th inning. Impressive pitching performance for the pen aside from that.- Saturday: Cecil has already matured a little, showing his powerful sinker to give the Jays a chance with 7 strong innings and 3 runs allowed. He should be able to get another chance. Interesting note here is that Scott Richmond, who starts again in 2 games, came on in relief because nobody in the pen was left available.

Aside from that in Jays news, Scutaro tapes are being reproduced at alarming rates in order to show young players how to add some bases to your game. Marco twice surprised opponents by stealing second when they got too lackadaisical on the mound or in the field. Great job Marco, keep it up!

Ricky Romero takes on Martis today and the Jays better get at least a series split out of this series. Russ Adams has been called up to replace Inglett and it will be interesting to see how he does. He has 0 power, but has been a hitting machine in the minors this season. He'll take over the infield utility role.

6.14.2009

The Jays lost 11-3 to the Marlins today in what was the culmination of a really atrocious week for the Jays. Even Cito has started to doubt the production of his lineup and has started to tinker with it in order to get more runs across the plate. So let's recap the last 3 days:

1. Roy gets tight and all Jays fans start holding their collective breath;2. Janssen shows that he is very rusty and may have up and down starts from here on;3. The unorthodox #2 of the staff, Brian Tallet, lands hard on his butt Sunday and may be tiring after throwing more innings in a half a season than he has in most entire seasons.

So if Roy stays out and the other 2 are ineffective.....what do we do? Change 3/5 of the staff? This is getting pretty depressing. Bloggers and columnists everywhere seem to be blaming Wells more than anyone else for his mostly lackadaisical play. It seems like the second half of the year may be painful for us Jays bloggers.

For the game recap, in a nutshell, it sucked. Let's see, the Marlins got 18 hits, 2 walks and left 24 base runners on base overall. And for those who keep protecting League.....check out his stats over his last 4 appearances. He's on a downward spiral. The Jays need to pressure "the regulars" by bringing up young guys to play in their places. Replace Bautista, Inglett, and Carlson with Lane, Emaus, and Accardo, that's what I say. Shake it up. Because it seems to me like the lineup is too "safe". And wells doesn't deserve to hit in the top 6. He should be hitting 7tyh or 8th at the most. This is getting pessimistic, so I'll end it here.

Too little, too late. Sure, the top 5 guys in the lineup were able to draw 5 walks, but not one of them got a hit to go with their walks, leaving the bottom of the order to do the work. Rios was the star of the show for the Jays and has been on fire ever since the autograph incident took place. Hopefully it lit a fire under him that will last all season. Rios and Overbay hit their 8th home run of the season each, while Rios went 4 for 4 overall with an added stolen base. Janssen was horrible in his start, but Camp picked him up fairly well with 1 ER over 3 innings. Ryan, Frasor, and Downs shut down the Marlins from there and allowed the bats a chance to catch up, but ended up being 1 run short.

I'm not sure if the switch to the 6-hole is the reason Rios is doing so well, but one thing is for sure, it didn't help Wells any. I'm getting really tired of watching his ABs and lackadaisical attitude. I don't know if anyone has the name and number of the autograph seeker that riled up Rios, but I'd love to get them so I can send him to do the same to Wells. He's becoming the Jays version of David Ortiz this season and he should be in the 7-hole, right behind Rios.

Let's see what the latest injuries mean to the trade landscape in MLB:

1- Roy Halladay. He tweaked his groin and could miss his first start since 2007. Although this could mean a slide in the standings for the Jays, he is also their best trading chip, which equals to a horrible scenario for JP who may only have an expensive Wells or Rios as trade chips.

2- Jake Peavy. You have to feel bad for the Pads, who would most likely have already moved him if it were not for the decent start to the season. Even though the have lost Peavy for 6-8 weeks, they still have one hell of a trading chip in Adrian Gonzalez, who can bring returns of at least 3-5 prospects depending on the quality. At least Peavy's injury is an ankle and they may get a chance to move him just before the deadline anyhow.

4- Jason Donald. Yes, he's a minor league player, but he was also the most rumored trade chip for the Phils to use in an attempt to get another arm for their rotation. As a result, another minor league player - Michael Taylor - or maybe even Shane Victorino, become the best trade chips for the Phils. I added Shane because teams may like his proven talent more and the Phils can always shift Werth to center and bring up Taylor to play RF.

5- Erik Bedard. Shoulder inflamation generally means a price drop if you deal an arm like Bedard's, and that's exactly what is ailing him. Will a team take a chance that he returns to form easily? Not likely, and definitely not at the price the Mariners paid to get him.

6- Jason Isringhausen and Troy Percival. In this case, it just means that the Rays will be actively looking for relief pitching, and lots of it.

7- Carlos Quentin. His injury has meant a slide in the standings for the Sox and has left them in limbo over whether or not they should sell. They've already started calling up some young talents in Beckham and Poreda, so the fire sale may be coming to a park near you very soon.

8- Kyle Lohse. He's not exactly an ace, but he's extremely important to the Cards and their chances to make the playoffs. If his injury lingers on, look for the Cards to make a move for Brad Penny or one other pitcher.

9- Brandon Webb. Many will say that his injury has led the D-Backs to become the basement dwellers in the West and will end up requiring a fire sale of sorts. With Parra proving himself worthy of an OF spot, look for Byrnes and Jackson to be on the block.

10- Reyes, Delgado, Maine, Putz, Perez. Yes, the Mets are still strong and still in second place in the NL East, but if one more injury occurs to their SP staff or to a key player, they may be left lagging behind very quickly. The Mets could end up selling some vets if their fortunes continue to get worse.

6.13.2009

The worst thing that could actually happen to the Jays did so last night. Not only did they lose the game 7-3 because the bullpen couldn't keep it together, but they lost yet another pitcher to injury in Roy Halladay - the best SP in all of MLB and the biggest trade deadline trading chip the Jays had if they fell out of the race. I hope for Cito and the rest of the team that whoever has to take some of his starts performs, Roy returns and slides back into form, and that the Jays continue their attack on the AL East lead. However, if this doesn't happen and Roy is out for an extended period, what does it mean for the Jays chances to re-sign Roy long term? I'm not really sure. You do have to feel for Roy regardless of whether you are a Jays fan or not, because his domination was definitely pointing to a battle for the Cy Young between him and Zach Greinke.

The Jays will most likely wait to see what results are on tests and to see if Roy's groin issues are going to be there for the long term. Candidates to "replace" Roy in the rotation:

1- David Purcey: hasn't performed all that well in his rehab at AAA, but has the most seasoning and endurance. After 8 starts, his ERA stands at 4.60 with 32 Ks and 27 BBs in 47 IP.

2- Bret Cecil: since his return to AAA from his last MLB start with the Jays, Bret has thrown 23.2 innings, allowed 10 ER, walked 10, and struck out 16. He's done enough to give Vegas chances to win, but I hope the Jays allow him to get more seasoning and relieve some of the pressure he faced early on in the season.

3- Marc Rzepczynski: the Jays haven't been shy when it comes to giving youngsters chances to prove themselves, and I believe that Mark could get his soon. He is in AA and has a 2.59 ERA in his last 10 games including his last 2 very dominant starts where he threw 13 innings with no earned runs allowed, 6 walks and 13 strike outs. Why not test him out and see what he has against MLB hitting. If it works out, great, the Jays depth got better and deeper. If it doesn't, well Marc will know what to expect and can work some things out in AA or AAA.

Other possibilities include: AAA's Brad Mills who had his best 2009 start in his last start, Fabio Castro who has moved from New Hampshire all the way to Vegas already and is still holding his own with a 2.60 ERA after 9 AAA starts, AA's Reider Gonzalez - a 23 yr old Cuban who has been one of AA's most consistent pitchers this season, or dare I say Brian Burres who like his name indicates chills the very blood of those who like to win.

My guess is that it will be either Purcey (if long term) or Rzepczynski (if short term). If they bring up Cecil again and he fails to dominate, it could have adverse effects that last a while lot longer than the Jays would like. Either way it is very depressing to see Doc go down and I hope he ends up right back in the saddle for his next start - fingers crossed.

The Jays may decide to send Jesse Carlson down to AAA to work out his mechanics. He was completely ineffective again and is hurting the depth of the pen. Brandon League had a horrific night, and those who defended the loss he gave up when Cito left him in for 2 innings can now see why he needs to be kept in check instead of naming him one of the best guys in the pen. Downs and Frasor are the only real consistent guys in our pen, after that it gets really scary right now - not exactly what we need to complete in the AL East. Not sure who'll come up to replace Carlson, but I'd like to see Daniel Farquhar or Leon Boyd get a shot.

Last note from last night, Rios was put in the #6 spot in the lineup with Rolen moving up to #5, which ended up with Alex going 2-4 on the night. Can the Jays trade Vernon Wells? They should before his astronomical contract kicks in. Wells went 0-4 and he lowers his average to .246 while he sits in the #3 hole vacated by Rios. It's clear that Aaron Hill belongs in that #3 hole and that Wells needs to look at himself in the mirror and decide whether or not he's going to help the Jays win this season.

6.12.2009

There's not much to say about last night, other than the bats went to sleep and Romero impressed with his second strong outing in a row. Aaron Hill tried to get the offense going with 2 hits, including 1 double, but the hits were mostly sporadic throughout the game and 13 base runners were left on base as a result. I have to add that I'm really impressed with Kevin Millwood this season. He holds a 2.72 ERA after 13 starts this season and may be benefiting from feeling like the ace on a staff with such young and impressionable hurlers like Derek Holland. Attendance was a dud with just over 16,000 fans catching the game. Hopefully the bats liven up again for today's game against Florida.

AAA Notes: Jason Lane isn't taking the Dellucci signing well at all. He went 5 for 5 last night with 2 home runs and 6 RBIs. Russ Adams had a 3 for 4 night, bringing his average to an impressive .368,but only has 1 HR and no stolen bases, ensuring that any call up would be a utility role. Fabio Castro pitched 6 good innings, allowing 4 runs but keeping Las Vegas in this laughter of a 14-4 win. Vegas scored 8 runs against Franklin Morales, who was making his second rehab start.

6.11.2009

Normally I would do a whole piece on how the draft went for the Jays, but found that just reading this linkgives readers a very good taste of what the Jays got in the second day of the draft. I linked in the scouting videos from MLB.com for the top 9 guys and will sum it up below.

For some reason there are a lot of people who think the Jays will have a hard time reaching a deal with James Paxton and were surprised the Jays took him as a result. I don't see it being an issue personally since the Jays should spend any required signing dollars if they plan to compete in the AL East long term. Some quick hits about the Jays draft:

- 6 of the top 10 picks were pitchers, 3 RHP and 3 LHP- 19 of the top 30 picks were pitchers, 14 RHP and 5 LHP- 3 of the top 5 picks were High School players, but only 7 of the top 30 were High School players- only 2 of the picks were outfielders- there wwas only 1 third baseman and 1 first baseman chosen in the top 30, 370th and 430th overall respectively- 4 middle infielders were chosen, 3 SS and 1 2B, 2 of them early at 160 and 180, and 2 late at 610 and 730- only 5 of the 30 picks were listed as being under 6'0" tall- 18 of the 30 are listed at over 200 lbs

For those interested in #1 Stephen Strasburg, BA has an article about his press conference here.

Any time you can get a 12 year veteran such as David Dellucci to sign for league minimum you know you're not getting a super star! However, the depth and experience that David gives the Jays is important and should not be overlooked. David's stats indicate that he averages 15 HR per season if his season stats were extended to 162 games, so they're definitely not getting a power hitter of sorts. He does hit a lot of doubles, perfect for the dome, and hits from the left side as Joe Inglett did and will probably be taking Joe's place in the lineup when facing right-handed pitching. David definitely has more power than Joe overall, but hasn't shown any this year. I initially found this signing curious because I was under the impression that the Jays would give Jason Lane a chance first, but having looked over his stats in AAA I can see why they decided to give David a try first. Jason also hits from the right side, which would create a battle between Jose and Jason instead of having 2 complementing outfielders.

I do question this move because I would rather see the Jays go for someone like Ryan Spilborghs or Matt Murton from Colorado. They would at least cause havoc on the base paths and would have higher ceilings and potential than Dellucci does. Who knows, maybe they'll use Dellucci as a trade chip for one of those 2 in a package since Colorado may want a veteran bench guy, or perhaps Colorado now sees itself contending and doesn't want to make the moves, but I sure hope JP is making the calls to see if he can pry one of those away. While Murton is a right-handed hitter, he hits right-handed pitching extremely well with a .482 average thus far in AAA and may be more affordable than Ryan who has a lot more power and potential.

I give this signing a C+ grade and hope that JP has more in the bag, but do see this as a minor improvement over Joe Inglett when the Jays face right-handers. Drunk Jays Fans has a "Travis Snider" spin to the deal, and I hope that the talk of him a Cito having issues is wrong because they're going to need this kid to perform without the entitlement drama some kids are bringing up with them these days.

6.10.2009

I came across Edgar's information while watching highlights of New Hampshire games and liked what I saw, and so do the Jays. The Jays signed him as a non-drafted FA in 2003. Edgar hails from Venezuela, Toronto's Latin American backyard, and measures 5'9" 240 lbs. Visualize that for a moment....ok. Carrying on, he's a 23 year old lefty who was charged with closing duties for a while last season in Lansing, and ended the season 9-3, with 102 IP, 106 Ks, 92 HA, 22 BB, and 9 saves. He led Lansing in wins and was definitely ready for a push forward.

This season, Edgar started the year in Dunedin but was promoted very quickly (after 2.2 innings) to New Hampshire. His stats thus far are:2-2, with 21 IP, 20 Ks, 15 HA, 11 BB, and 2 saves.

His walks in AA are a little worrisome, and the fact that Edgar is so dominant against lefties may define his role in the pen when he makes it to the Jays. One encouraging fact is that regardless of whether he's facing a lefty or a righty, Edgar gets 1 strike out per inning on average, indicating that he can get out of tough spots if need be. He may need to work on his stamina since he is starting to do what he did last season, which was to have an extremely strong start, followed by a rough second half. Hopefully Edgar can build his stamina because the Jays will need options in the pen at some point with so many guys struggling and he would be a great fit. Look for Edgar to make AAA if he can prove that fatigue isn't a factor from July forward.

And the Jays decided to make it their mandate to have as much pitching as possible int heir stables. Here are the picks from last night:

20 RHP Chad Jenkins, team - Kennesaw State, Atlantic Sun player of year37 LHP James Paxton, from Ladner, B.C., team - Kentucky. Represented by Scott Boras.68 LHP Jake Eliopoulos, team - Brantford Red Sox, played on the Canadian National Junior Team. Jakes's mom said that the Jays were at he top of his list of teams to go to and have always been his favorite team. 99 RHP Jake Barrett, Mesa, Arizona, High School104 OF Jake Marisnick, Riverside California, High School

The Jays obviously went out on a limb in the beginning of this draft for 2 reasons: 1) to find Canadian talent that they could market as highly as possible 2) they took some risks in the later rounds with High School players, instead of doing it early in the draft as they had done in previous years.

I believe it was a smart draft by the Jays, who added a ton of talent to an already very talented pitching line of prospects. I'll be doing a piece on each of these guys soon enough and look forward to getting to know them a little better myself.

The Jays had a couple of top quality pitchers to select from when their #20 pick came up. There was highly touted but injured Kyle Gibson, and Rex Brothers, but the Jays decided on the 6'4" 225 lbs RHP Chad Jenkins out of Kennesaw State. Chad has a 90-95 MPH fastball and is mainly described as a workhorse who has an easy delivery, pounds the bottom of the strike zone, and will be quick to have an impact. He throws a vicious slider and is said to have 3 plus pitches, including an above average change up - the pitch that seems to define an easy transition to The Show. He keeps hitters off balance with the change up and is said to have good command and great pitching knowledge.

Negatives

Like all young kids he tends to overthrow and go for the strike outs, but that's something that all pitching coaches know how to deal with and I'm sure it won't take long for the Doc Halladay tapes to come out. He is also not very highly tested since he comes from a small school. His success has also not be long-lived and so could be fairly unproven over the longer term.

Brian Tallet (3-3, 4.54) takes to the mound against Doug Mathis (0-0) who makes only his 5th career start. Flipping between the game and the draft should be very fun. I've got a six pack, some friends over, and the BBQ filled with giant sirloin steaks. I'm really hoping Gibson falls to the Jays and they grab him because he'd be quite the catch at #20, and would probably cost less to sign than most other 1st rounders due to his injury. It'll also be interesting to see how many pitchers are chosen in the 1st round since the draft is light on hitters. The Jays do have 5 picks in the top 3 rounds, so this should be fun to evaluate. Here's to an awesome Jays draft!

6.07.2009

Well, the real Brad Mills has finally arrived and got his first win of the season for Las Vegas in AAA. The highly touted prospect threw 7 very strong innings today, allowing only 4 hits to go along with his 11 strike outs. He walked none, did not allow a run, and threw 74 of his 110 pitches for strikes. Brad needed one of these to get his confidence back into form after starting the season 0-7. Tacoma is no easy opponent either, with great hitters such as Michael Saunders, Mike Carp, Chris Shelton, Brian LaHair, Chris Woodward, and Mike Morse, all of whom were struck out at least once by Mills. The 11 Ks were the highest this season for Mills, with his previous high being 9. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come from the 24 year old, because the Jays may need the help fairly soon.

Bullington came on in relief for the 2 inning save, striking out 3 along the way. Jason Lane supported Mills offensively with 2 doubles, while Buck Coats scored 2 runs and stole a base, going 1 for 4 on the day.

The Dunedin Jays sit last in the standings, but their relief pitching is not to blame. The starters have had a tough time setting them up the right way, with Andrew Liebel leading the way at 1-7 despite a 1.28 WHIP and decent 4.16 ERA. Page, Bongiovanni, and the recently promoted Huggins are also inconsistent, but all have had some decent starts sprinkled with the bad ones. The best pitcher on the squad, in my opinion, is Kenny Rodriguez, who has a 1.08 WHIP and 2.11 ERA, but the 24 year old from Cuba is already 24 and may need to be trialed at AA sometime soon to push his progress like they have done with Brandon Magee. The RP crew for Dunedin is excellent, led by Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, and Robert Bell, who are all very dependable and dominant. Alan Farina was expected to be a key RP as well after an impressive start in Lansing in 2008, but has been on the DL since the end of April.

Looking at this lineup, you can tell right away what issues will ail the Jays for a very long time: an absolute lack of power throughout the organization. I'm almost at the point of taking bets on the next time the Jays have a 35 HR hitter being in 2025 or beyond (if it wasn't for Travis Snider that is). The Dunedin crew do have speed in Mastroianni who also has an excellent OBP. JJ is also starting to get better, but the fact remains that John Tolisano is tied for the team lead in HRs with 5. Both Tolisano and Jackson also have 12 errors already to their credit, which doesn't scream "Promote me now!!!". Ahrens is depressing, very depressing actually. On the good side Jonathan Jaspe has shown good patience at the plate and could become a Jason Kendall type of catcher with a little more pop. Moises Sierra came out this season all guns-a-blazing but has slowed a little since then, and Eric Thames was the best hitter on the team until he got injured. Adam Loewen's conversion to becoming a hitter has been slow and it seems that it could be a pipe dream to ever see him make it past AA as a hitter.