National Weather Service says big weekend storm unlikely

Thursday

Feb 6, 2014 at 4:13 AMFeb 6, 2014 at 8:12 AM

Lane Lambert The Patriot Ledger @llambert_ledger

As South Shore residents finish clearing their cars and driveways after Wednesday's fast-moving snowstorm, it's looking more likely that they won't have to brace for an even fiercer storm this weekend.

At the National Weather Service's Taunton office, meteorologist Glenn Field said there's growing confidence that "the big storm is off" for Sunday and Monday. Instead of a full-blown nor'easter, the region will probably get no more than 4 inches, if that.

"By Friday we should know," Field said.

Earlier in the week, one of the two main computer models that forecasters use was showing the possibility of a major storm Sunday, while the other model projected that a new low-pressure system would move farther east and out to sea, missing New England entirely.

As of Wednesday afternoon, Field said that both the "American" and "European" models were predicting the system would move into the Atlantic. The American model shows 2 to 4 inches of snow for the region, while the European model shows a more eastward track that would leave about an inch.

Field noted that the European model precisely forecast the track of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012.

So for now, the weather service says the South Shore has a 40 percent chance of snow Sunday, with highs around 32, a 50 percent chance Sunday night with a low around 20, and a 30 percent chance Monday, with highs in the upper 20s.

Wednesday's fast-moving storm dropped 5 to 9 inches around the South Shore, with lesser amounts in Plymouth County and more in Norfolk County. Duxbury and Hanover reported 5 inches by late morning, while Cohasset had 9, Milton almost 9 and Weymouth 8 inches.

Brockton had 8 inches while Boston got 9 to 10.

The storm reached the South Shore from Connecticut and western Massachusetts around 7 a.m., just in time for the morning commute. But a combination of school closings and light traffic on major highways meant only minor crashes and spin-outs, and no serious injuries.

"People were heeding the advice (to stay off the road)," State Police spokesman David Procopio said.

State trial courts were closed, and non-essential state employees were ordered to stay home. Logan Airport stayed open through the storm, but as of Wednesday afternoon scores of flights were canceled.

Lane Lambert may be reached at llambert@ledger.com. Follow him on Twitter @LLambert_Ledger.