White House wonders: Is Texas in play next year?

posted at 6:56 pm on May 11, 2011 by Allahpundit

If you’re wondering why yesterday’s amnesty pander was held in El Paso instead of, say, Arizona, wonder no longer. Rest assured, this is a crazy idea but more so because of the vagaries of the next election than in the abstract. Last year, according to Gallup, Obama’s approval rating in Texas was 44.8 percent, just two points lower than the national average. At the height of Bush fatigue and Hopenchange fever in 2008, self-identified Democrats actually outnumbered Republicans; a year later, during his honeymoon period, Obama’s approval was above the water line at 51.9 percent. In fact, in a PPP poll of the state taken in January, Obama was crushed by Huckabee in a hypothetical head to head but finished seven points behind Romney and just five points behind Gingrich. In theory, if Latino voters broke overwhelmingly for him and turned out in droves, the state would be in play.

But then, that’s also what they thought in 2008, isn’t it?

The state’s population is about 35 percent Hispanic, almost identical to California’s proportion. The voting-age population in Texas is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the U.S. — with an estimated 1.2 million eligible minority voters, most of them Spanish speakers, added to the state’s population between 2008 and 2012, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Those trends have been emerging for a decade, but Democrats have, by and large, been unable to capitalize on them, owing to the state’s geography and abysmal voter registration and turnout patterns among Latinos…

Sixty-three percent of Latino voters in Texas backed Obama in 2008, a solid but unspectacular showing that he must improve upon for any chance in the state. Moreover, Latino turnout in Texas lagged behind rates in neighboring states and was only half the rate among white Texans, who backed McCain 3 to 1…

[Karl] Rove doesn’t deny that times are changing fast — since 2002, 80 percent of newly eligible Texas voters have been minorities, most of them Latino. But he points to gains that Hispanic Republicans made last year in state legislative and judicial races — the number of Hispanic Republicans in the Texas House jumped from zero to five — and a series of perceived insults Obama has served the state: a refusal to issue disaster declarations for recent wildfires and droughts, health care reform and the decision to deprive Houston of a decommissioned space shuttle as a tourist destination.

“I hope they do spend all of their money and time on Texas so they can divert it from Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Florida, New Mexico and Michigan,” said Rove.

So why is this a fantasy? Because, realistically, the next campaign will be tight enough in terms of electoral votes and fundraising that The One won’t have the time or money to spend on a longshot like Texas. It’ll cost him $25 million at least to compete there, which isn’t a huge number given the size of his war chest but will seem unjustifiable if the GOP nominee is threatening in must-have states like Pennsylvania or Ohio. The only reason he’d dump cash like that into Texas is if he had a considerable fundraising advantage and could afford to burn some money in hopes of scaring Republicans into depleting their own smaller treasury to defend the state. And even in that case, isn’t the money better spent in … Pennsylvania and Ohio? If he’s seriously competing for Texas next year, it can mean only one of two things. Either the economy’s come roaring back and his reelection is all but assured, in which case Democrats might use the opportunity to reach out to states otherwise deemed unwinnable in hopes of encouraging voters (specifically, Latino voters) there in 2016. Or the economy’s stalled and his approval rating has cratered, in which case he’ll be desperate and looking for a huge cache of electoral votes to offset the swing states he’s going to lose. The latter seems more probable than the former, in which case, how probably is it that the state that would deliver him from defeat would be Texas? As I say, a crazy idea.

For your listening pleasure, here’s Rick Perry hammering The One on immigration today on Laura Ingraham’s show. As for whether Texas is in play come 2016, that seems likelier. Save us, Marco Rubio, you’re our only hope!

Blowback

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Or the economy’s stalled and his approval rating has cratered, in which case he’ll be desperate and looking for a huge cache of electoral votes to offset the swing states he’s going to lose. The latter seems more probable than the former, in which case, how probably is it that the state that would deliver him from defeat would be Texas? As I say, a crazy idea.

They certainly are putting a lot of stock in Eva Longoria’s ability to GOTV, aren’t they?

Sixty-three percent of Latino voters in Texas backed Obama in 2008, a solid but unspectacular showing

This is why Rs who think we should trade immigration reform for a fence are asking for their own political asphyxiation, and R voters who support candidates who mess around with immigration reform are the DUMBEST PEOPLE IN POLITICS…

That would be anyone who supports Newt, Palin, Huck, and now lately, apparently Ron Paul too.

Conservative Electoral suicide, signed, sealed and delivered by the left right…

Support anyone who will promise enforcement of immigration laws, and ignore anyone who does not.

The words “immigration reform” should be as unmentionable among the righty base as “tax hikes”…..

Obama will win Texas? Suuuuuure, and the GOP nominee will win California.

This is an attempt to sucker both Democrat donors in this state as well as the RNC and GOP into wasting their money. Not only will Obama not compete in Texas, I predict he won’t make even a single campaign stop in 2012.

This is a prime example of a politician believing his own press. The dude makes an appearance on the Texas/Mexico border to tout immigration reform/amnesty and then a fundraiser in blue, blue, blue Austin and with all the adulation he received from these two events, thinks he’s gonna capture the Alamo. He’s delusional.

Texas passed a vote ID law, so the dead cannot vote from the grave anymore, nor can illegals – both major democrat constituencies.

And when you look at the midterms, Texas went from a red state to a RED state, with districts once solidly democrat flipping to GOP control, and the legislature from a bare majority to a super majority.

Long story short – a day old tunafish sandwich has a better chance of winning Texas than 0bama.

“…— and a series of perceived insults Obama has served the state: a refusal to issue disaster declarations for recent wildfires and droughts, health care reform and the decision to deprive Houston of a decommissioned space shuttle as a tourist destination.”

Obama may make headway in Houston, a sanctuary city (thanks Mayor Bill White, Democrat), and perhaps the college town of Austin, TX, and perhaps some Latinos, but that’s it.

He lost big here in ’08 and the census changed the electorate in favor of Republicans further still in 2010. I see no way possible. A terrific waste of his time and money :)

A local radio talk show host commented that Obama will lose all of his bounce from bin Laden if he continues to demagogue the issue of border security with partisan remarks like he delivered in Austin and El Paso recently.

“…. President Obama has the opportunity to prove that he cares about keeping jobs for working class families in America. He can speak up about his appointees at the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) who have their boots on The Boeing Company’s neck. Does the President support the rights of businesses and working class people in right-to-work states to make sound decisions without government regulatory agencies unfairly punishing them?

Does the President realize the real concern here is not that businesses will choose to locate in one state over another? It’s that businesses will choose to locate in other countries because thanks to the Obama administration’s job killing policies and over-reaching regulatory boards the business climate in the United States is growing toxic. South Carolina’s Senator Jim DeMint reminded President Obama that the President said in his State of the Union address: “We have to make America the best place on Earth to do business.” I agree with this sentiment, Mr. President. If we want to keep good paying jobs for working class families in the United States then you shouldn’t pit South Carolina against Washington state because eventually every state will suffer when businesses declare “enough is enough” with these tactics and decide to relocate in more business-friendly countries.”

Has anyone in the O Admin stopped to think what a bad impression he is making on legal immigrants? The ones who did everything right? The ones who risked their lives to flee communism and socialism and went through the rigors to become a US Citizen?

Sometimes I think the only advisor to Obama is brain dead. Doesn’t he understand that all “Latinos” are not mexican? And that most of them risked life and limb for Freedom in America?

I know lots of folks in Austin who voted for him, most now despise him. Both Anglo & Hispanic. And that’s the part of the state that actually liked him to begin with. I’ve never met anyone in Houston or Dallas that could stand him.

I don’t believe he’s ever been over 40% in the state. He won’t be competitive here next year, he just wants some of that Rob Roy & Northwest Hills liberal money.

I wholeheartedly agree. My wife was born in Cuba, grew up in Venezuela. Most of her family fled Castro, her father not so lucky was caught in a concentration camp for 6 years. He later married and she was the last of 3 kids. A fortunate turn of luck allowed the other Cuban relatives, then living in Venezuela, to secure a Visa and get them out. They then went to live in Venezuela only to see Chavez take it over 11 years ago.

They have fled socialism/communism twice. Needless to say, every single member of the family is a very much conservative American citizen.

“Now tell me, what does that mean to be noble? Your title gives you claim to the throne of our country, but men don’t follow titles, they follow courage. Now our people know you. Noble, and common, they respect you. And if you would just lead them to freedom, they’d follow you. And so would I.”

Texas is in play? Tea Party central? He called us tea-baggers – Texans are southerners, that’s very poor manners on his part to be calling Texans a dirty name. Does he think they forgot? Independents in Texas are not leaning Democrat far from it.

About half of that Hispanic population is ILLEGAL. Illegal immigrants can’t vote.

and I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Hispanics do not vote in large numbers and 2010 was a huge, huge, huge win for republicans. After 2010 election, the Republicans in the state legislature hold the largest majority they have ever had in the history of the state. Republicans won huge at the local, state, and federal level. And not much has changed since 2010….not to mention the President’s flippant attitude towards Texas and all the lawsuits that have been filed against the state or to defend state’s rights since his election.

Sure Texas is in play. In the land of unicorns and rainbows, it’s in play.

…a series of perceived insults Obama has served the state: a refusal to issue disaster declarations for recent wildfires and droughts, health care reform and the decision to deprive Houston of a decommissioned space shuttle as a tourist destination.

(writing from dearest, darkest, dustiest DeepInnaHeata)

…every dime (of taxpayer and union money) that Mr. O pours into Texas will be deeply appreciated…sign and bumpersticker printers, TV stations and the folks who sell bus ads all need to make a buck.

…it just won’t do him much good. Good.

…Mr. O will always have the lockstep support of the ideological zombies who he’s consistently ignored and/or sold out…homosexual activists, the “close Gitmo” crowd, folks who put humans (particularly infants) on the same plane as endangered insects, unionistas, and any communist you’d care to name…he may be flawed, they’ll tell you, and may have betrayed their sacred principles, which seem to begin and end with telling you and I as from a great, pristine height what to do…it’s like they think they’re talking to ants…but his nose is still pointing in the right direction…to the left….

…furthermore, Mr. O can count on the wistful dreaming of those who buy into racially gerrymandering all of civic life, reducing people to “demographics” without any reference to either history or reality or humanity. These sorts are the folks who’ve been selling us the “diversity” canard…everybody must think and act alike, while being free to look as different as they want while doing so….

Living, as I do, between the Atascosa and the Nueces rivers, one cannot escape noticing the whole “hispanic” dimension in things political. Go down the road to the Wal*Mart and one hears Spanish as much as one hears English…and, allow me to stick my thumb right into the eye of the racial beancounters by observing that nobody seems to mind. Folks aren’t “oppressed” down here…broke, yes…and for that we can thank Mr. O and the Fed….

…but I digress….

…folks down here do vote Democrat. Our Congressmensch is Henry Cuellar, a who’s always in the paper talking about how much “free” money he’s been able to steal from other regions and steer our…but even he is smart enough to make socially conservative sounds when a sour wind blows his way…’cause folks here may be Democrats, but there’re also a mess o’ Republicans, and even more registered “I hate all the b*stards”, into which voter pool he and his party comrades must drop their hooks.

One must remember, also, there even now, after aberrations like McGovern, slickers like Clinton and losers like Gore and Kerry, Democrat means something slightly different in some parts of Texas than they do in, say, south Chicago.

The problem here (I can’t speak with any authority about Bexar county up north, or for any other Texas region, for that matter) doesn’t seem to be that Dems here feel that they have a lock, and that Republicans thus are all forlorn at their prospects…it’s just that, as we’re seeing nationally, the Republicans are about as inspiring as yesterday’s oatmeal…and about as organized.

…now, that doesn’t take into consideration the imminent expansion of Texas federal representation and the consequent racially gerrymandered electoral redisctricting, both federal and state. Last time the folks in Austin bit into that turd, the Dems hit the road to avoid a quorum both in the House and Senate…a’ la Wisconsin…prolly gave the folks up in Dairyland the idea, truth be told. And, with an overwhelmingly Republican legislature, the redistricting should be interesting…and should leave Mr. O’s folks smarting….

What there *IS* down here, within easy driving of San Antonio, is a pretty healthy Tea Party bunch. I’ve been to a couple of gatherings, and one meeting, and seeing as the gatherings were outdoors under the Texas sun (one in April, which can be blazing down here, and one in July), these people are stoked enough to risk a solar hammering. Heck, there was even a Tea Party do here in Atascosa County…which is to San Antonio what Hooterville is to the Big Apple….

I haven’t seen any corresponding anti-Tea-Party do’s…maybe there might’ve been one or two on one of the area colleges…but you can blame that on their being on campus…you know…subsidized by the folks, not very accountable, trolling for chicks with politics which suggest easy virtue…you know the drill….

…so, in my dusty little sunbaked bailywick, Mr. O — who seems to be viewed pretty universally as an oily and crooked Chicago pol, go figure — would be wise to circle his wagons up in Yankeeland to get the needed electoral juice. He’s DOA down here….

…except among true believers…and they seem few and far between locally…even the Dems down here don’t wear Birkenstocks…too many snakes….

About half of that Hispanic population is ILLEGAL. Illegal immigrants can’t vote. ramrants on May 11, 2011 at 8:17 PM

Neither can Non Naturalized Immigrants they can be in the country legally on a visa but they still can’t vote. They aren’t a citizen of the U.S. It takes more than residency in Texas to be elligible to vote. I have never had a problem voting and it’s pretty regular down here. Now the Democrat primary system in Texas has seen some shenanigans

God Willing PUMA will be out in force running up to November 2012 election. They really are not happy with the 2008 Democrat primary outcome…..maybe those are the votes the Obama administration is counting on to swing Texas SNARK.

Just repeating what I said in the headlines blurb on this, Team Obama is putting this out at this time because they just swept through the pockets of Texas liberals and want to do it again in the future — they have to give liberals in the state some sort of hope their money will actually make a difference in Texas, not someplace 1,500 miles away. So they come up with this rah-rah spin.

The other flaw is their mindset that because California Hispanics, mostly with family connections to Mexico, break heavily for Democrats, Hispanics in Texas, mostly with family connections to Mexico, are going to break the same way. They aren’t — odds are they’ll be closer to the ideological breakdown for Hispanics in Florida in the long term.

California has a welfare state that overtly tries to get lower income people permanently onto public assistance and dependent on Democrats, and despite its size, only has a 150-mile wide strip of land along the Pacific Coast where the vast majority of its population is crammed, especially in the southern part of the state. Both are designed to inhibit upward mobility. Texas’ system is far more demanding that people go out and work, while at the same time the 800-mile wide border means you don’t have the concentration of poverty within the Hispanic community in any one area that you have in California, and a lot more land to expand the areas where the upwardly mobile can live. And the upwardly mobile (i.e. taxpaying) people are more likely to vote Republican.

That doesn’t mean Hispanics in Texas aren’t more supportive of Democrats right now, especially compared to Cuban-American support for Republicans in Florida, just that the ties to the Dems are far weaker than they are in California (Obama’s 63 percent of the Hispanic vote in Texas in 2008 may look good, but that’s just nine percent ahead of Obama’s national vote, and when you look at his record over the past 2 1/2 years, it’s hard to see him reaching that 63 percent total in Texas again in 2012, especially if the state’s economy continues to perform far better than the overall national economy).

Texas has lots of money, most of it Republican but enough of it Democrat.

Obama wants some of that money.

So he is going to tell Texans with money that their donations will matter.

And the fools will believe him and send him even more money.

angryed on May 11, 2011 at 7:00 PM

…and how much of that money is in the hands of his “federal trough of swill” cronies? How much is union money? How much of it is *OIL* money…and how much of *THAT* does he hope to get?

Living as I do in an area which has seen a very recent upsurge in business and population thanks to oil drilling interest in the Eagle Ford oil deposits, I’ve seen more construction of truck parks, and have dodged more oilfield service trucks and fracking rig vehicles than Michelle Obama has dance moves. Should Mr. O listen to the siren song of his greeny friends (“Fracking is baaaaaaad!”), what sort of coin do you think he can squeeze out of their coffers.

…and a lot of those oil folks I’m rubbing elbows with now are out of Louisiana…the “permitorium” sent them ‘cross the Sabine to practice their magic…from Lousiana to Texas…paraphrasing Will Rogers, the folks who made that move lowered the IQs of both places….

That, and the folks out in Midland, etc., threatened with the shutting off of the oil tap for the sake of the sagebrush lizard (or whatever it’s called)…how friendly will they be to an extending the reach of “the man who mandates lightbulbs”? I don’t think that there are enough solar energy millionaires in the Lone Star State to offset the clout of oil in Texas.

So, come on, Barry…buy a vacation house in one of the tonier parts of Austin or Dallas or Houston…bring your twirly lightbulbs with you….

If all the blue-state ultra-liberals from California flee to Texas by 2012 for real jobs, and re-register.

Mutnodjmet on May 11, 2011 at 7:27 PM

Actually, there’s another way. All these anchor babies that have been dropped for years are now voters. Hispanics now make up over 50% of public schools and it grows exponentially. Texas, like CA, will eventually turn blue, and sooner than we think. Hispanics will vote democrat 90% of the time. They want the freebies. The way the hispanic population is taking over Texas, it won’t be long. Stop the anchor babies and illegals now and it may have a chance to stay red. What the GOP doesn’t realize is once Texas turns blue, they’ll never ever get the WH again. You can’t lose Texas and CA both, and still win.

I hope this president doesn’t think that routine of his, called a speech, improved his chances in Texas. Texans know when they’re being screwed and they recognize who’s doing the screwing. I wonder how many Hispanics have been affected by the wild fires Obama is ignoring?

GOP = governor, lt. governor, attorney general, both chambers of the legislature, both U.S. senators, all nine justices on the Texas Supreme Court, all nine judges of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, secretary of state

Zero is counting on Holder to jack up the new voter ID law and redistricting. Count it. It still won’t deliver Texas, but you can be sure Holder is part of his strategery. I have lived in Texas all my life, and Holder is a foregone conclusion here. We are all watching our excellent AG to see how he handles things with Holder’s DOJ.

Look at the county break up:2004 by county2008 by county
Now consider that there will be 2 more disricts and they’ll both be Republican districts, I’d say that Barry has a heck of a lot of work ahead of him.