USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 7th to 11th Jan 2019

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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 7th to 11th Jan 2019

Fundamentals OutlookThe week ahead will see the second tier data coming out of Europe. German factory orders and retail sales sets the pace for the week ahead followed by the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence report. Later in the week, the German industrial production figures will be coming out culminating with the trade balance figures. The European Central bank will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes this week. The minutes cover the central bank’s meeting held in December where the governing council decided to end the QE purchases.

Data from the United States will see the release of the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report. The data comes on the back of manufacturing activity posting a decline to hit a two year low in December. The Fed will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes this week. The minutes cover the December meeting where the FOMC hiked interest rates by a quarter basis point. Later in the week, the inflation report from the U.S. will cover the latest consumer prices for the month of December. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet this week.

Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair was trading a bit volatile last week. After previously breaking below the 0.9870 level of support, price action pushed slightly higher. This resulted in the USDCHF currency pair closing the week near this support level.

Key support/resistance levels:Support: 0.9741; Resistance: 0.9870

Commentary:The strong consolidation at 0.9870 indicates that the currency pair could be looking to make a rebound or a correction to the declines. The previously held resistance level at 1.0001 remains a key level of interest to the upside. The currency pair must break past this level in order to post further gains. To the downside, there is a risk that the USDCHF could extend past the previous lows. This would come if the support level gives way. For the week ahead, we expect the USDCHF currency pair to be slightly bullish.

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