Tourism market potential analysis in Botswana: A Delphi study

Abstract:

This article explores what would be the most probable
scenario for the tourism industry in Botswana by the year
2020. A modified Delphi technique was used to generate
data from 68 industry experts. The findings show that experts forecast progressively more changes and higher
impact as one moves from values, structures, and events. The implication for policy makers and industry operators is that efforts aimed at increasing tourism may prove more fruitful if focused on changing structures and hosting events,
rather than changing the values of the people. The study also improves on the understanding of Delphi forecasting
behavior. It demonstrates that an expert who is optimistic on
one factor—say, values—is likely to perceive the same with regard to other factors such as structure and events.