Number of flu cases rose slightly, indicating season may be peaking

SAN JOSE, Calif. - Confirmed influenza cases in Northern
California rose only slightly last week compared to the week
before, signaling what could be the peak in the nastiest flu season
in years.

The new number reported Monday comes just as state health
officials distributed small batches of newly acquired flu vaccines
to hospitals still crowded with patients fretting about their
coughs and fevers.

Kaiser Permanente, the health giant that conducts flu surveys
for the state health department, reported that 400 patients in its
Northern California region tested positive for the influenza virus
in the week ending Dec. 13 - up 3 percent from the week ending Dec.
6, when 390 cases were reported. The new figures follow a dramatic
70 percent spike in cases from late last month.

"It was going up, up, up and now it's leveled off," according to
Dr. Roger Baxter, a consultant who oversees Kaiser's flu vaccine
program in Northern California. "This is a good sign."

Still, Baxter said that 400 positive cases represent "a huge
number," considering that at this time last year, Kaiser reported
only one or two influenza cases this early in the flu season.
Locally, the flu season peaks in January and generally runs through
March. The Kaiser numbers also reflect only a fraction of flu
sufferers, as most feverish and coughing people don't seek medical
attention. The actual number of cases may be slightly higher as
well since Kaiser has avoided testing borderline cases in order to
save dwindling testing supplies.

People have been crowding emergency rooms in the Bay Area and
across the country since seven children died from influenza in
Colorado, four people died of flu-related illnesses in San Diego
County, and a 7-year-old Bakersfield boy died last week of
influenza. Though it hasn't tallied flu-related deaths from this
year yet, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that
36,000 people, primarily the elderly, die every year in the U.S.
from the flu.

Epidemiologists, who track the spread of the virus, say the
surge in flu cases is more pronounced this year in part because the
vaccine is only partially effective against Fujian A, a variant of
the Panama A strain present in this year's flu vaccine.

To help meet the unprecedented demand for inoculations, state
health officials announced Monday they would ship 13,970 doses of
flu vaccine this week to the local health departments with the
highest rates of infection. State health officials said they would
dispatch 500 shots to Santa Clara, 350 to San Mateo, 250 doses to
Santa Cruz, and 400 vaccines to Alameda counties.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services also announced
Monday that it had purchased 375,000 additional doses of flu
vaccine from Emeryville-based pharmaceutical company Chiron Corp.
Federal health officials also signed a contract with MediImmune
Inc. to buy three million doses of the nasal spray vaccine FluMist,
which state and local health departments can purchase.

Santa Clara County hospitals said have been rationing flu shots
for those people who are most at risk for complications, including
the elderly, young and the chronically ill. FluMist has been
approved only for healthy people between ages 6 and 49.

Whether they've had their flu shot or spray, many local people
are taking extra precautions to avoid exposure. Some schools in San
Jose have been disinfecting classrooms, parents in San Francisco
are keeping their children home from school, and religious leaders
in Santa Clara County are even altering the way services are
conducted.

Patrick J. McGrath, the Roman Catholic bishop of San Jose,
issued a letter to parishioners on Friday asking that they avoid
holding hands during the Lord's Prayer. The Bishop also wrote that
during the flu season there would be no wine served during the
Eucharist ceremony and that the communion wafer would not be placed
on the tongue as is customary.

"There are issues with germs," said Roberta Ward, a spokeswoman
for the Diocese of San Jose, which serves Santa Clara County. "It's
bad this year so we aren't going to take the chance."