2015 Season Preview

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Despite making all of 62 appearances (51 starts) since the start of the 2010 season, Anderson was able to secure a one-year, $10 million deal from the Dodgers. It speaks volumes to how much talent Los Angeles still feels the 27-year-old left-hander possesses. Anderson did have Tommy John surgery back in 2011, but all of his injuries since then have been back, ankle, or finger related (broken right ankle and a finger broken by a pitch). The injuries and recovery times have been enormous, but he showed in Colorado last season (2.91 ERA in his 43.1), though it was just eight starts, that he still has something, and Dodger Stadium could be friendly to him. He just needs to stay on the mound, which has been the same response on Anderson for years.

Pederson could be an offensive force as early as this seasonCourtesy: lockerdome.com

Pederson was an offensive monster in the minors, but he struggled in his brief trial in 2014, posting a .143/.351/.143 line in 38 plate appearances. He has shown this spring, however, the same type of ability he showed in the minors, posting a .367/.397/.750 line over 63 plate appearances, including six bombs. After dealing Matt Kemp, Pederson appears to have very little competition in center, as Andre Ethier and Chris Heisey are the players who could push him back to the minors if he struggles. Pederson, however, doesn’t look like he is going to. Even in his brief trial last season, Pederson wasn’t overmatched, as his plate discipline will allow him to be a difficult out. With the offensive force around him in the order, Pederson can ease into the production that he is going to be capable of in the future, but he’ll still be quite productive in 2015. Expect a .270/.340/.475 line from the Rookie of the Year favorite.

Offseason Overview: The Dodgers may have lost SS Hanley Ramirez to the Red Sox, but they quickly found a replacement by acquiring Jimmy Rollins from the Phillies for a couple of pitching prospects. Dee Gordon was moved to Miami for Andrew Heaney, who didn’t have time to put on a Dodger cap before he was flipped to the Angels for Gordon’s replacement, Howie Kendrick. They also added Joel Peralta from Tampa Bay to strengthen the bullpen. The Dodgers didn’t just make trades, as they opened up their endless bank account to sign RHP Brandon McCarthy (four-years, $48 million), Anderson (one-year, $10 million), and Tommy John rehabbing RHP Brandon Beachy (one-year, $2.75 million, $3 million 2016 team option with incentives). The Dodgers continue to reload and spend money, putting out the best team that money can buy, stealing that title from the New York Yankees, who used to take so much more heat for the same type of activity.

The Verdict: The Dodgers are a fantastic group. They have the best pitcher of our generation, Clayton Kershaw, with the best number two pitcher in baseball, Zack Greinke. They have a top ten talent, Yasiel Puig, who has become a superstar and one of the faces of the sport that so desperately needed one. Adrian Gonzalez continues to quietly produce Hall of Fame numbers, while the team has a budding young star in Pederson. If they get production out of OF Carl Crawford and SS Jimmy Rollins as they continue to get older, this team would be the best team in baseball, and that’s with the issues that they have in their rotation. I love Brandon McCarthy, but – can he stay healthy? Hyun-jin Ryu is on the shelf with shoulder soreness already, so Juan Nicasio appears to be filling the No.5 spot in the rotation, which is horrifying considering that he was just as awful away from Colorado as he was in Coors Field. With McCarthy, Anderson, and Ryu’s reliability in question and Nicasio being Nicasio, the rotation is only guaranteed to be strong two out of every five days. With the offense behind them, can anyone be plugged in and allow the Dodgers to be successful? Maybe. I still think the Dodgers will win 90 games, but they aren’t the top overall team in baseball.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Shoulder woes have slowed Zimmerman in the same way that they did Scott Rolen, but the Nationals have moved Zimmerman to first, where he won’t have to make as many throws. The end result should be a healthier, productive season; although, a thigh and fractured finger were the primary injuries that allow Zimmerman to play in only 61 games last season. This will the the 11th season in a Nationals uniform for Zimmerman, and this is his age-30 season. Don’t consider him washed up. He is locked in at .280/.350/.480 with about 25 home runs and 85 RBI in a dynamic lineup.

Harper isn’t going to make anyone wait for an eruption this season.Courtesy: CSNWashington.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: OF Bryce Harper

Duh, right? At 22, Harper is ready to continue his assault on opposing pitchers, but THIS is the year that he reaches 30 home runs and stays healthy. What is he capable of when he stays on the field and has Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, and Ian Desmond on the field with him? This is a dangerous lineup and Harper has the potential to be the most productive player in that lineup. This is the year that he starts heading towards that ceiling, closing in on a .300/.400/.500 line, while increasing his power output as he becomes more physically mature.

Offseason Overview: When you have five very good starting pitchers and you’ve won 96 games, what do you really need to do to improve? Well, sign the best free agent pitcher on the market to a seven-year, $210 million deal, which is what they did when signed RHP Max Scherzer. The move pushed Tanner Roark (15-10 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 31 starts) to the bullpen, while making LHP Ross Detwiler expendable, as he was shipped to Texas for a couple of prospects. The Nationals didn’t need to do much to improve their team, but they still made a huge splash and got better.

The Verdict: A healthy Zimmerman and Werth will help the Nationals to 100 wins, but it will be Harper, Rendon, Desmond, and the pitching that will get them to 95 wins. This is the best team in baseball, regardless of PECOTA projections. The pitching is elite and they have Roark ready in a swing role and A.J. Cole ready in Triple-A. With Lucas Giolito and Joe Ross likely to start the year in Double-A, they are far off from making an impact, either. Michael Taylor, a powerful, speedster, will be taking over center for the first several weeks with Denard Span on the shelf. The Nationals are very good, and this is the year that they put it all together.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Freese is entering his age-32 season and has only had one “really good” season, which was 2012. It’s fair to wonder what he actually is, as he appears to be more of a 25 double, 10 home run, 60 RBI-guy than the 25 double, 20 home run, 80 RBI-guy that he was a few years back. Still, Freese has an excellent lineup around him, so he should see plenty of fastballs and be capable of a rebound, but what the ceiling of that rebound is…that’s the big question. A healthy Freese should get to 15 home runs and 75 RBI this season.

Is Calhoun capable of more than what he showed in 2014?Courtesy: Zimbio.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: OF Kole Calhoun

In just 127 games, Calhoun reached 31 doubles and 17 home runs. Given an entire season of at-bats and entering his age-27 season, Calhoun may be capable of more. With Josh Hamilton‘s status for the season still uncertain, he may even move into a larger, run-producing role. Everyone drools over the opportunity to have Mike Trout on their team, but Calhoun isn’t chopped liver as far as Angels in the outfield.

Offseason Overview: The Angels added a solid young starter by acquiring LHP Andrew Heaney from the Dodgers for 2B Howie Kendrick, who was set for free agency after the 2015 season. Heaney doesn’t have top-of-the-rotation stuff, but he could be a nice mid-rotation option for a number of years, and the Angels aren’t known for developing talent, so it was a nice get. To fill the void at second, the Angels acquired Josh Rutledge from the Rockies and Johnny Giavotella from the Royals. Neither are offensive forces, but they’re solid defenders and with Trout and Pujols around, the pressure isn’t on them to produce. If Hamilton misses significant time due to his possible drug suspension, Grant Green, Colin Cowgill, or Matt Joyce, acquired from the Rays in December, could step into larger roles or a platoon situation.

The Verdict: Josh Hamilton’s suspension could be a huge issue for the Angels, and I’m betting against PECOTA on this one. The Mariners and the Athletics are in a better position to take the AL West. The Angels have plenty of talent, including the best player in baseball, but Mike Trout can’t carry an entire 25-man roster (this isn’t the NBA) and the Hamilton questions, the Pujols aging issue, and the lack of consistency from the remainder of the lineup leaves me thinking that this is an 83 to 85 win team. While that isn’t awful, it won’t be enough in 2015.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

After a breakout 2013, Carpenter slipped a little in 2014, watching his OPS fall from .873 to .750, aided by the drop in his BABIP from .359 to .318. Carpenter was still quite valuable, leading the NL in walks, which helped his on-base percentage get to .375, and he was able to score 99 runs. With a lot of improving talent around him, the 29-year-old Carpenter is ready to get back to the production levels of 2013, scoring 110 or more runs and 40 or more doubles.

Can Heyward get back on track using the “Cardinal Way”?Courtesy: stltoday.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward is entering his age-25 season and he already has five full seasons under his belt. He’s set to become a free agent after the 2015 season, and a huge season would lead to a huge contract. He hasn’t had a very consistent career, as his most productive overall season was his rookie year, 2010. He can provide well above-average defense, but at 6’5″, 245 pounds, you’d expect more than 11 home runs, last season’s career-low total. Maybe the Cardinals can rework his swing and get some of the power back, allowing Heyward to get back to his natural, beautiful swing that made him such a force earlier in his career. There’s a lot of money riding on Heyward’s ability to do more with his bat; however, in the current market, he’ll still get nine figures.

Offseason Overview: The Cardinals got Heyward and RHP Jordan Walden from the Braves for a couple of young arms, RHP Tyrell Jenkins and RHP Shelby Miller. While the deal hurt the Cardinals rotation depth, they needed to replace the potential production in right field after the tragic loss of Oscar Taveras. Although they’ll have Heyward for just one season, he has the potential to be the best player the Cardinals have had since Albert Pujols‘ heyday. Still, with Michael Wacha, Jaime Garcia, John Lackey, and Adam Wainwright having injury issues in the past, it’s fair to wonder if dealing pitching was worth the potential lack of rotation depth. The Cardinals will continue to trust their “way”, though, so the next man up will be expected to produce. There wasn’t much action this winter in St. Louis, unless someone really wants to hear about the Mark Reynolds, Carlos Villanueva, and Matt Belisle signings.

The Verdict: Well, it’s another season and the Cardinals are still the favorites – at least based on PECOTA. You’ll likely see big seasons from Heyward, Carpenter, first baseman Matt Adams, and second baseman Kolten Wong, who is going to breakout worse than a 13-year-old boy who sips Mountain Dew all day. The Cardinals success will lie in the health of the pitching staff. They have Marco Gonzales lined up as their No. 6 starter and Garcia, if his shoulder stays connected, but Wainwright and Lackey have a lot of innings on their reconstructed elbows, and they need to see consistency out of Carlos Martinez to stay competitive. The Cubs are improved and the Pirates should be the favorites for the division. The Cardinals will win more than 85 games, but this could be the first seasons they miss the playoffs since 2010 – unless things go right, which they usually do.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Boston Red Sox

Courtesy: MLB.com

2015 Projected Record: 87-75 (1st in AL East, 5th in MLB)

Manager: John Farrell (168-156 in two seasons with Boston, 322-326 in four seasons overall)

Bogaerts will be the epitome of a post-hype sleeper after having watched him crash and burn during his age-21 season in 2014. It seems unreal that we hold players to such high expectations today – even Mike Trout hit just .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances at the tender age of 19. Still, the Boston shortstop is someone to lookout for as we turn the page to the 2015 season. The positives: he still had 28 doubles, 12 home runs, walked in 6.6 percent of his plate appearances, and wasn’t benched to make room for Hanley Ramirez. The negatives: He hit just .153/.198/.221 over 254 plate appearances from June 1 through August 31. After finishing the season with a .313/.317/.490 in September, so, perhaps, that is a sign of things to come? Get back on board with Bogaerts.

Andrew McCutchen, Hanley Ramirez, and Derek Jeter…those are the recent comparisons that Betts received in a recent article, which is enough to stop most fans in their tracks and mock whoever said it, but those comparisons came from the mouths of veterans David Ortiz, Shane Victorino, and Hanley Ramirez, himself. Betts is an extremely athletic, versatile player, who will break camp and find a way to get 500 plate appearances while playing all over the field, but mostly center field. He may be listed at just 5’9″, 155 pounds, but he could eclipse 10 bombs and 30 stolen bases for the next several seasons, while showing impressive plate discipline. After playing in 52 games in his age-21 season and posting an .812 OPS over 213 plate appearances, he’ll establish himself as a “must-own” in fantasy leagues in his first full season in 2015.

Offseason Overview: The Red Sox were busy filling up their rotation in trades, acquiring Wade Miley from Arizona (for Rubby De La Rosa and Allan Webster) and Rick Porcello from Detroit (for Yoenis Cespedes). Beyond the offseason trades, Ben Cherington and company opened the checkbook, signing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval through free agency, while continuing in the pursuit of international free agents by dropping $31.5 million (plus an additional $31.5 million in fines) on 19-year-old Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada. While Moncada will head to the minors, it will only be a matter of time before he makes an impact, as he’ll head to High-A to start his career. He joins fellow Cuban Rusney Castillo, who signed a seven-year, $72.5 million deal, within the Boston organization.

The Verdict: After dealing Jon Lester to Oakland and being unable to come up with a deal with Philadelphia for Cole Hamels, the Red Sox head into the 2015 season with a group of mid-rotation arms in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Clay Buchholz isn’t what you’d call an “ace”, even if you’re dumb enough to think that he can duplicate the 16 starts he had in 2013. If he stays healthy, a big “if” since Boston should be ecstatic to get 30 starts and 190 innings out of him, he’ll just be serviceable. Miley can give Boston innings, but the 3.94 ERA and 1.36 WHIP show that he may have issues missing bats and keeping base runners at bay when you consider those numbers came while pitching in the NL West, where Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego’s stadiums kill baseballs – he likely won’t be so lucky facing New York, Toronto, and Baltimore’s sluggers. Porcello could be very good with a strong defense behind him, but, with this pitching staff, the Red Sox are going to need to outscore their opponents…something they should be able to do thanks to their collection of talented bats. This team is extremely deep offensively, but the pitching is the key here. Boston should win 90 to 93 game, but they’ll need a lot of luck out of that rotation. For that reason, I see Johnny Cueto in the Boston rotation, leading them to the title down the stretch.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Seattle Mariners

Courtesy: MLB.com

2015 Projected Record: 87-75 (2nd in AL West, 6th in MLB)

Manager: Lloyd McClendon (87-75 in one season with Seattle, 423-521 in six seasons overall)

Paxton missed 102 games last season with a shoulder strain, but, upon returning, he was lights out, posting a 3.19 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 62 innings and 11 starts, including the stinker in Toronto on 9/22 (2.2 IP, 9 R, 8 ER). He had the same injury that Reds RHP Johnny Cueto had in 2013, but Cueto came back to toss a career-high 243.2 innings in 2014 – so, this shouldn’t hold Paxton back from taking off again. Still, he has made only 17 starts in his brief career, and he’ll rebound from his injury-plaged 2014 and become the No.2 option behind Felix Hernandez in the Mariners’ rotation.

Zunino is much better than that .199 average, and you’ll LOVE the power.Courtesy: mlbtraderumors.com

Fantasy Player to Watch: C Mike Zunino

Zunino should have most people’s eyes already thanks to his 22 home runs in 2014, but many will be terrified of his .199/.254/.404 line and 33.2 percent strikeout rate. Once upon a time, there was a guy who hit. 227 with 24 home runs and 56 RBI…that was the 2012-version of Mike Napoli, and, though Napoli took a few more pitches than Zunino has in his brief career, we need to remember that this kid will still be just 24 on Opening Day. Zunino is slick with the glove behind the plate and can mash, so he’ll carve out a nice, long career. Get on board and watch him improve as he gains more big league experience.

Offseason Overview: The Mariners had their third winning season since 2004 last year, and they had very little to do to keep things intact for another run, but they did make a few changes. The signed Nelson Cruz, fresh off of his 40-homer outburst in Baltimore, to fill their DH spot with a much-needed, right-handed power hitter. Seattle acquired Seth Smith from San Diego for power-armed, results-deficient Brandon Maurer, and they signed Rickie Weeks to become a super-utility type of player, likely to see a lot of outfield at-bats for the Mariners. The rotation added depth when J.A. Happ was acquired from Toronto for OF Michael Saunders. Several solid moves to improve the roster and the quality of depth, as Seattle tries to get over the hump and make their first World Series in franchise history.

The Verdict: Seattle made some smart decisions this winter. They gave Cruz a four-year, $57 million deal, which could be a gamble given his age (34 on Opening Day), but he was the top offensive talent available on the free agent market for the team’s need. He’ll fit in nicely with Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano in the middle of the order. The rotation is still strong, as Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma provide All-Star level production while young arms like Paxton and Taijuan Walker round out the rotation with Happ (if he didn’t pitch himself out of a rotation spot). The Mariners are primed to strike, especially with a Josh Hamilton-less Angels club that has far more question marks than Seattle does heading into the season. While PECOTA was generous with a duplication of the 2014 record, it wasn’t generous enough. Seattle will win 90 or more games in 2015.

Over the next several weeks, The Baseball Haven will be creating season previews for all 30 MLB teams. You’ll find their projected records (based on PECOTA records from Baseball Prospectus, as of 2/15/2015), each team’s top three players (based on Steamer WAR projections from FanGraphs), and some valuable notes on each team, including likely bounce-back candidates, potential breakout players or fantasy sleepers, as well as a look back at offseason transactions which led to each team’s projections. Stop back frequently to see where your favorite team ranks!

Longoria is a star. For some reason, he continues to be overlooked when people talk about the best third basemen in baseball. Perhaps it is because he has played for the Rays for seven seasons. He’s entering his age-29 season and he’s coming off of his worst career season, a career-worst .724 OPS. He slipped a little defensively, as well, seeing his range factor fall below league average for the first time in his career. Perhaps he was playing hurt, perhaps he is just aging, but Longoria will be asked to fill a major role in 2015, a role that he is familiar with. He will be the biggest bat in the Rays lineup, and, even with a lot of talented players around him, he must improve upon his 2014 season. We will look back at last season as an outlier to his incredible career, as he rebounds to post a .270/.350/.500 season.

Smyly, acquired in the David Price trade last season, has battled some shoulder soreness this spring, which is always a scary, wearisome injury. He is coming along and will likely have his first start in mid-to-late April, likely missing the first two weeks of the season – if everything breaks right. In seven starts with the Rays last season, Smyly posted a 1.70 ERA and 0.76 WHIP, numbers that he will not duplicate over an entire season, but numbers that show why Smyly and his health are worth monitoring. Over his career, Smyly has a 3.55 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 43 starts and 241 innings. At 26, he is quite capable of becoming one of the top starters in the American League, joining Alex Cobb, when he is healthy, as well above-average starters.

Offseason Overview: The Rays appeared to give up on Wil Myers, but they got some value out of him, even with his huge struggles, acquiring OF Steven Souza, a late-blooming prospect from the Nationals, and a bit of depth (Travis Ott, Burch Smith, Rene Rivera, and Jake Bauers) to their roster and to a system, which, suddenly, isn’t drafting and producing prospects at the rate that it used to. The Rays did the same type of deal when they sent Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar to Oakland for John Jaso and prospects (Boog Powell and Daniel Robertson). Even with new leadership, after Andrew Friedman left for the Dodgers, the Rays continue on with their cost-saving, intelligent ways. The Rays wrapped up their offseason by signing Asdrubal Cabrera, who appears to be the starting shortstop, even after proving to be below-average at the position the last several seasons in Cleveland, prior to being traded to Washington last season; however, at just 29 and on a one-year deal, it was a smart investment. The best move of the offseason by the Rays may have been the recent buy-low deal that brought their injury-ravaged rotation Erasmo Ramirez, a pitcher with great stuff and inconsistent results and opportunities in Seattle, for LHP Mike Montgomery, a flamed out piece of the James Shields trade with Kansas City.

The Verdict: Even with Ben Zobrist and Wil Myers gone, the Rays have a very solid roster. Nick Franklin, acquired in the David Price deal, or Tim Beckham could fill the Zobrist role, as both can handle shortstop and second base, though they won’t have the same type of offensive production. Jaso will fill the DH role, providing solid power and on-base skills, while Kevin Kiermaier provides elite defensive ability as the center fielder. If they don’t deal David DeJesus prior to Opening Day, he looks like the fourth outfielder, which is a nice option for the club to have. The biggest issue will be their rotation. Cobb and Smyly will miss the first couple of weeks due to injuries they suffered in camp, while Matt Moore may come back from Tommy John surgery by July. Jake Odorizzi made huge strides last season and Chris Archer is underrated, despite his 3.28 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over the last two seasons. If they can survive the first couple of weeks with their pitching staff decimated, the Rays will make the playoffs for the fifth time in eight seasons, and, for some reason, they will continue to be overlooked by those who cover the sport. 88-90 wins for a very undervalued, under-appreciated team.