MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - For all the talk of the rise of Latin America's left, Mexican presidential hopeful Felipe Calderon could show on Sunday that, while unfashionable, U.S.-style conservatives can still win hearts and minds.

Years of stuttering market reforms under outgoing President Vicente Fox from free trade to a credit card bonanza have taken root among many voters who fear leftists so popular in countries like Venezuela and Bolivia could bring ruin.

Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is a slight favorite in Sunday's elections but polls are so close that a win for the Harvard-educated Calderon, promising more foreign investment and pro-business reforms, is a real possibility.

The core of Calderon's support lies with an emerging middle class in Mexico enjoying years of relative financial stability following the currency devaluations and debt crises that plagued the country in the 1980s and 1990s.

Under Fox, who ended 71 years of Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, rule six years ago, many Mexicans have enjoyed greater access to consumer credit despite tepid growth. The number of credit cards in Mexico has nearly tripled during his term and a stable peso has spawned more savings accounts and mortgages.

The NAFTA free trade deal has sparked an explosion in U.S. goods. Consumers flock to Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Shopping malls that would not be out of place in U.S. suburbia litter many wealthier Mexican cities near the U.S. border.

Many middle-class Mexicans now have something to lose.

"(With Calderon) we'll have stability," said 36-year-old aerobics teacher Maripi Ablanedo Vargas, who bought a house with a mortgage thanks to lower interest rates.

For Vargas, these benefits under Fox are in danger from Lopez Obrador's populist anti-poverty crusade, which she fears will mean a return to wasteful high spending.

Calderon is hoping to follow the electoral successes of pro-U.S. conservatives like Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

But many other Latin Americans are rebelling against decades of market reforms and millions of poor Mexicans distrust conservatives. They feel governments like Fox's benefit the rich and do little to create jobs.

Much of Calderon's support comes from northern Mexico, where factories catering to U.S. consumers have led to rising wages, auto and housing booms. Lopez Obrador's support is strongest in southern states, where poverty is endemic.

Calderon, a stiffish 43-year-old lawyer, was for months an underdog in the race. His message of continuity from Fox was uninspiring for many Mexicans who packed rallies to hear the more charismatic Lopez Obrador promise better pensions and health care.

But Calderon gathered support midway through the campaign by playing on fears of radicalism, portraying Lopez Obrador as "danger for Mexico."

"Calderon has the more coherent economic policies. He is not going to make us suffer as small businessmen," said cantina owner Mundo Tavera, a lifelong PRI supporter.

"With Lopez Obrador, all I can think about is shielding myself from devaluations."

While Calderon's enemies paint him as elitist, he has tried to swing independent voters by selling himself as the image of modernity against the out-of-date economic nationalism of his rival.

"Calderon represents the consolidation of Mexico's modernization project. This is a project that has been taking root in Mexico," said Carlos Sirvent, a political science professor at Mexico's UNAM university.

"People talk about a leftist backlash in Latin America but it's not so simple. Much of the impact of free trade is here to stay, no matter who wins," he added.

And if the Communists do not win, those mine fields need to be built on the Mexico-Guatemala border, where illegal immigration would likely skyrocket (with many of them going all the way to the US as well).

Mexico prefers to export its poor, not uplift them By George W. Grayson WILLIAMSBURG, VA.  At the parleys this week with his US and Canadian counterparts in Cancún, Mexican President Vicente Fox will press for more opportunities for his countrymen north of the Rio Grande. Specifically, he will argue for additional visas for Mexicans to enter the United States and Canada, the expansion of guest-worker schemes, and the "regularization" of illegal immigrants who reside throughout the continent. In a recent interview with CNN, the Mexican chief executive excoriated as "undemocratic" the extension of a wall on the US-Mexico border and called for the "orderly, safe, and legal" northbound flow of Mexicans, many of whom come from his home state of Guanajuato. Mexican legislators share Mr. Fox's goals. Silvia Hernández Enriquez, head of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations for North America, recently emphasized that the solution to the "structural phenomenon" of unlawful migration lies not with "walls or militarization" but with "understanding, cooperation, and joint responsibility." In Such rhetoric would be more convincing if Mexican officials were making a good faith effort to uplift the 50 percent of their 106 million people who live in poverty. To his credit, Fox's "Opportunities" initiative has improved slightly the plight of the poorest of the poor. Still, neither he nor Mexico's lawmakers have advanced measures that would spur sustained growth, improve the quality of the workforce, curb unemployment, and obviate the flight of Mexicans abroad. Indeed, Mexico's leaders have turned hypocrisy from an art form into an exact science as they shirk their obligations to fellow citizens, while decrying efforts by the US senators and representatives to crack down on illegal immigration at the border and the workplace. What are some examples of this failure of responsibility?  When oil revenues are excluded, Mexico raises the equivalent of only 9 percent of its gross domestic product in taxes - a figure roughly equivalent to that of Haiti and far below the level of major Latin American nations. Not only is Mexico's collection rate ridiculously low, its fiscal regime is riddled with loopholes and exemptions, giving rise to widespread evasion. Congress has rebuffed efforts to reform the system.  Insufficient revenues mean that Mexico spends relatively little on two key elements of social mobility: Education commands just 5.3 percent of its GDP and healthcare only 6.10 percent, according to the World Bank's last comparative study.  A venal, "come-back-tomorrow" bureaucracy explains the 58 days it takes to open a business in Mexico compared with three days in Canada, five days in the US, nine days in Jamaica, and 27 days in Chile. Mexico's private sector estimates that 34 percent of the firms in the country made "extra official" payments to functionaries and legislators in 2004. These bribes totaled $11.2 billion and equaled 12 percent of GDP.  Transparency International, a nongovernmental organization, placed Mexico in a tie with Ghana, Panama, Peru, and Turkey for 65th among 158 countries surveyed for corruption.  Economic competition is constrained by the presence of inefficient, overstaffed state oil and electricity monopolies, as well as a small number of private corporations - closely linked to government big shots - that control telecommunications, television, food processing, transportation, construction, and cement. Politicians who talk about, much less propose, trust-busting measures are as rare as a snowfall in the Sonoran Desert. Geography, self-interests, and humanitarian concerns require North America's neighbors to cooperate on myriad issues, not the least of which is immigration. However, Mexico's power brokers have failed to make the difficult decisions necessary to use their nation's bountiful wealth to benefit the masses. Washington and Ottawa have every right to insist that Mexico's pampered elite act responsibly, rather than expecting US and Canadian taxpayers to shoulder burdens Mexico should assume.

11
posted on 07/01/2006 12:46:44 PM PDT
by garbageseeker
(It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.”Samuel Clemmens)

I admit, I havn't followed this race closely at all but I thought Obrador was more outspoken in his opposition to illegal immigration. Calderon sounds like he'll just be another Fox and continue to export Mexico's poverty across the border.

"...I thought Obrador was more outspoken in his opposition to illegal immigration."

Obrador, the Communist, wants all Mexican peasants currently living happily, but illegally, in the U.S. to return to their miserable existence in Mexico, as miserable peasants make up most of the communist voting block in Mexico. If Obrador loses the election tomorrow, it will only be because there were not enough disgruntled Mexican peasants going to the polls.

I will always believe that President Bush's recent talk of amnesty and citizenship for Mexican illegals was done to cause Mexican illegals to think they will have a better future under a non Communist government in Mexico than they would have under the Communists. It is currently a very tight race between the Communist, Obrador, and the Conservative, Calderon. If the Communists lose tomorrow, it will be, in no small part, due to the efforts of our President.

After the election, if the Communists lose, the President can drop his talk of amnesty and work with Mexican President Calderon to build a better future for all Mexican citizens. The key to solving our current Mexican illegal alien problem is not to build a wall between us (that would really please the communists), but to help the Mexicans build a better Mexico.

If the Communists win, we better build a wall and build it fast.

15
posted on 07/01/2006 1:51:54 PM PDT
by DJ Taylor
(Once again our country is at war, and once again the Democrats have sided with our enemy.)

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