Wednesday, March 7, 2012

North Carolina's John Hood, president of the conservative John Locke Foundation (a think tank in Raleigh), had quite an interesting take on the Republican presidential primary race today. He took note of the "probability calculus" showing that despite all the cat-fighting that's going on now among GOP contenders, and the less than warm reception Mitt Romney gets from conservative conservatives - "the base" - Romney will be President Barack Obama's opponent come November.

That "probability calculus"? "Romney leads in delegates. He leads in the popular vote to date. He leads in fundraising, endorsements, and organization," Hood writes. "Unless something bizarre happens – some embarrassing new disclosure or gaffe on his part – Mitt Romney will be Barack Obama’s general-election opponent."

Most pundits (and non-pundits) assume the same. Just take a look at Josh Putnam's Frontloading HQ (Putnam is a visiting professor at Davidson College specializing in election campaigns). His website calculates how neither Santorum nor Gingrich has a real path to getting the 1144 delegates needed to get the Republican nod. "It isn't mathematically impossible, but it would take either Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum over-performing their established level of support in the contests already in the history books to such an extent that it is all but mathematically impossible." Putnam's modeling is intriguing both in his calculations of how Gingrich and Santorum can't reach the magic number and how Romney can.

Back to Hood's analysis. The really interesting part is what he predicts for election day:

"While Romney’s ability to defeat Obama may remain debatable, there is little doubt that many Republican politicians wanted him at the top of the ticket rather than Santorum or Gingrich because they thought a Romney candidacy posed less of a risk to their own electoral prospects. While losing the presidential race would disappoint them, they’d rather live through another 1992 or 1996 – when GOP losses for president were accompanied by some offsetting GOP victories elsewhere – than go through another disastrous cycle like 1964 or 2008.

"Their statistical assessment of the 2012 election is entirely defensible. I continue to think that current trends predict a very close presidential contest in November. It might well come down to a point or two difference in the popular vote and key battles in swing states such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and our own North Carolina.

"Under those circumstances, one plausible scenario would be an Obama reelection combined with a Republican retention of the U.S. House, takeover of the U.S. Senate, and net gain of three to four governorships. Another plausible scenario would be a Romney victory combined with Republican losses in U.S. House seats and Democratic retention of the U.S. Senate.

"Right now, in other words, it looks like the 2012 cycle won’t be a wave election like 2006 and 2008 were for the Democrats and 2010 was for the Republicans."

Sounds about right. The U.S. electorate has said in several votes now that they like divided government, not wanting to give one party all the keys to the car. They have good reasons. Too often, politicians holding all the keys tend to try to drive the car off the cliff. Even with some of the keys, they can and have stalled traffic.

11
comments:

Anonymous
said...

How does that Kool Aid taste? I'll tell you just as soon as you provide one shered of evidence from this article that it is biased in favor of Obama. Good luck! P.S. I see you are already trying to divert

Larry, Shouldn't you be out volunteering somewhere instead of trolling the comment boards ? I'm guessing that since you couldn't even get elected to be District Six dogcatcher you are in seclusion plotting your "comeback"...

It really doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is. This is all just so much political theater (not that it hasn't been entertaining). The GOP voter base will flock to vote for whoever it is. Heck, 50+ million of them voted for a second term for W. and for a presidential ticket with Sarah Palin on it. Actual presidential qualifications mean nothing to them. Party loyalty, on the other hand, means everything.

They wouldn't vote for a Democrat if Christ himself was running. They'd think the GOP candidate more accurately represents God's views, especially if it were an evangelical Neanderthal like Rick Santorum.

Mitt Romney is winning only by out-spending his opponents by 4 to 1 and more in advertising using erroneous allegations that are just “not true”. Are many Republicans buying these slanderous statements? The “mean-stream” will vet these falsehoods in the General Election.

The record shows that Mitt Romney will do “literally anything” to win the GOP Presidential nomination.

With Mitt Romney as the Republican Party nominee, I foresee a losing re-run of 1976 with Gerald Ford, 1996 with Bob Dole, and/or 2008 with John McCain. Get ready!

Newt has a record in support of a “free and open” Capitalistic economy.

Newt Gingrich has the knowledge, skills, experience, and ability to defeat President Obama, Hillary Clinton, or any other Liberal Democrat Party nominee. We/You must remember President Obama may not be a Democrat Party nominee.

Make the “RIGHT” decision to vote for and support Newt Gingrich as GOP candidate to the President of the United States.

Oscar Howard, it seems a bit early to be drinkin', but.....do you seriously think Gingrich is the best person to be the next Presiden? Jeez man, keep that kool aid away from me please!

The meager few that the GOP have offered up is laughable at best, and I can't believe that even registered Republicans have supported a single one of them, except for MAYBE Ron Paul, but he's a loose cannon anyway.

This whole process so far with the GOP line up, isn't about the best person to lead the country, it's simply to try to keep Obama from winning again. Folks, this ain't a game, and I wish some people would quit treating it like that. If you vote and support the GOP, as it stands now, I'll gladly help you move to another country, because you obviously don't really know or understand what's at stake, or how the system works. You're just lil sheep. Any takers?

Archiguy - what an absolutely ignorant statement. They will "flock to vote for whoever it is". Thats exactly what the liberals do. Also voted for a guy that had no record, no experience and was never vetted. No qualifications whatsoever. Look how thats worked out. Oh, and his running mate was Joe frickin Biden. Talk about putting party before country? Really now? Wake up.

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The Observer's editorial board cares deeply about Charlotte and the Carolinas, and has a problem with public officials who have forgotten that they report to citizens. Editorial page editor Taylor Batten and associate editors Peter St. Onge and Eric Frazier tackle politics and public policy issues locally, across the state and nation. Kevin Siers tackles those issues too in cartoons. Read their columns and biographical information on the CharlotteObserver.com Opinion page.