UK seeks to free troops for Afghanistan

Military commanders are making plans for a major cutback in the number of British forces in Iraq as they prepare to take over responsibility for security in Afghanistan which, they say, the US wants to leave as soon as possible.

The plans signal what will be the most important shift in British military operations since the invasion of Iraq. Senior commanders are making remarkably optimistic noises about progress in building up Iraqi security forces in the south-eastern provinces under British control.

They say the number of British troops in Iraq could be cut to fewer than 2,000 over the next 12 to 18 months. There are some 9,000 there now. That would make it much easier for Britain to meet its commitment to take over the lead Nato role in Afghanistan from next May.

Though military officials say Britain could maintain a significant presence in Iraq as well as deploying 4,000 troops in Afghanistan, it would place a serious burden on the army. It is already under such pressure that training is being affected.

There is also a financial burden: British military operations in Iraq cost about £1bn a year. The deployment in Afghanistan is estimated to cost half of that over three years.

Air Chief Marshall Sir Jock Stirrup, the head of the RAF who becomes chief of the defence staff next spring, refers - in the context of handing over to Iraqi forces - to "different timetables for different provinces".

He told journalists last week that Britain "will be involved in Iraq for quite a long time to come", because of the importance of the country in what he calls economic and geostrategic terms. But that, he suggests, is more in the context of bilateral relations, not as part of an occupying force.

Major General Jonathan Riley, who just left his post as commander of British forces in south-eastern Iraq, has few doubts. "

We are going to hand over two provinces, Maysan and al-Muthanna, this year and another two next year," he says in the latest Soldier magazine.

He and other military officers compare the situation in parts of Iraq favourably to parts of Northern Ireland in the 1980s. "Iraq is not homogeneous, any more than Northern Ireland or any large city," said one defence official.

Amyas Godfrey, head of the UK armed forces programme at the Royal United Services Institute, says the role taken on by British forces since the war could be "wrapped up" by next May when they could hand over to the Iraqis.

British officials say the US no longer has an interest in Afghanistan, including the opium crop, 90% of which ends up as heroin on the streets of Europe and not America.