Pols’ Picks: Who Will Win the Senate?

The biggest political question between now and November is whether Republicans can win the six seats necessary to take control of the Senate.

You’ve seen the predictions and forecasts from the likes of Nate Silver, Stuart Rothenberg and the New York Times, and today Washington Wire is introducing the first installment of our political prognostication panel.

We’ve gathered a group of pols inside and outside of Washington to gauge the odds of a GOP Senate takeover and the number of seats each party will control after the elections. Our panel includes veterans from past presidential campaigns as well as other political veterans.

Of the group, the most optimistic Democrat is strategist Hilary Rosen, who gives 25% odds of a GOP Senate takeover. Former Harry Reid aide Jim Manley gives Republicans a 50-50 chance of taking control of the Senate.

Among Republicans, the range is between former NRSC aide Brian Walsh giving the GOP a 55% chance of winning control and former Mitt Romney aide Katie Packer Gage’s 80%.

No one in our panel predicted Democrats will hold more than 53 seats – with that figure down two seats from the 55 they control now – and Florida GOP strategist Rick Wilson owns the high-water prediction for Republican-held seats at 54, up from 45.

Note: For our purposes, we’re assuming the Senate independents Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont will continue to caucus with the Democrats, though it is feasible that Mr. King could flip if the GOP wins control.

Below is the first set of calls. You can re-sort the picks by clicking on the column headers.

We’ll be checking in with our panelists periodically between now and November and will follow how their predictions change as the campaigns proceed.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.