A collection of observations, news and resources on the changing nature of innovation, technology, leadership, and other subjects.

March 18, 2019

The world has been stuck in an era of slow economic growth over the past decade.Top economists and policy makers have proposed a number of explanations for the economic slowdown, but in the end, there’s no consensus on the reasons, on how long the slowdown will likely last, or on what to do about it.

The current world’s population is 7.7 billion. The UN Population Division estimates that global population will reach 9.8 billion with a growth rate of 0.5% in 2050, and will peak around 2100 at roughly 11.2 billion with a growth rate of 0.1%.Other projections estimate that the population will grow slower, peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and then decline to around 9 billion in 2100. Some project that after reaching a peak of 9 billion, the world’s population will decline back to today’s levels, - around 7 billion, - by 2100.

Japan and a few other countries are already experiencing population declines. The US population is currently around 330 million, and is projected to reach 390 million in 2050 and 450 million in 2100.While the US birthrate hit a historic low in 2017, the population has continued to grow due to immigration.The US growth rate is 0.71% including immigration and 0.43% without.

The global labor force grew at an average of 1.8% per year between 1960 and 2005, but since then it’s been growing at just 1.1% per year.The labor force is still growing in some developing countries like India, Nigeria and the Philippines, but it’s already shrinking in China, Japan and Germany.In the US, the labor force is growing very slowly, - 0.5 percent per year over the past decade, compared with 1.7 percent from 1960 to 2005.Given the continuing decline in fertility rates in most parts of the world, the global labor force is expected to slip further in the coming decades.

March 11, 2019

A few months ago, MIT president Rafael Reif announced the launch of the Stephen A. Schwarzman College of Computing in an e-mail to the MIT community. “This new College is our strategic response to a global phenomenon – the ubiquity of computing and the rise of AI…” wrote President Reif.“To state the obvious, AI in particular is reshaping geopolitics, our economy, our daily lives and the very definition of work.It is rapidly enabling new research in every discipline and new solutions to daunting problems.At the same time, it is creating ethical strains and human consequences our society is not yet equipped to control or withstand.”

The new College of Computing is made possible by a $350 million foundational gift from Stephen Schwarzman, - chairman, CEO and co-founder of Blackstone, one of the world’s leading investment firms. The gift is part of a$1 billion commitment to reshape MIT to help it better address the continuing advances in technology in our 21st century digital economy, as well as their many applications , - both the exciting opportunities and the difficult challenges.

March 04, 2019

Blockchain was created around a decade ago as the public, distributed ledger for the Bitcoin cryptocurrency.Most everyone agrees that it’s a truly brilliant architecture, built on decades-old fundamental research in cryptography, distributed data, distributed computing, game theory and other advanced technologies.When it first came to light, blockchain had no broader goals beyond supporting Bitcoin.But, as was the case with the Internet and World Wide Web, blockchain soon transcended its original objectives.

In 2016, blockchain made the list of the World Economic Forum’s Top Ten Emerging Technologies.The WEF report compared blockchain to the Internet, noting that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built.And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

That same year, blockchain made its first appearance in Gartner’s yearly hype cycles, where it’s remained for the past three years.In 2017, Gartner noted that “blockchain might seem like it’s just around the corner.However, most initiatives are still in alpha or beta stage… Long-term, Gartner believes this technology will lead to a reformation of whole industries.”

In a recent article in the MIT Technology Review, associate editor Mike Orcutt succinctly summarized the current state of blockchain: “In 2017, blockchain technology was a revolution that was supposed to disrupt the global financial system.In 2018, it was a disappointment.In 2019, it will start to become mundane… After the Great Crypto Bull Run of 2017 and the monumental crash of 2018, blockchain technology won’t make as much noise in 2019.But it will become more useful.”