The writer is a Fellow with the Centre for the Study of Global Power and Politics at Trent University, Canada
[email protected]

Let me make a prediction: Pakistan-US relations will soon return to what passes for normal and any major scaling back of ties will remain at the sole discretion of the US. Pakistan simply remains too profoundly and strategically dependent on the US for any other outcome.

Since its inception, Pakistan has defined its security pre-eminently in military terms and pursued an increasingly untenable military balance with India. The strategic arithmetic of this position is as clear today as it was to Pakistani leaders in 1947: an abiding foreign policy of military confrontation with a foe possessing overwhelming strategic superiority can only be sustained with a powerful, external patron who is militarily, diplomatically and economically underwriting Pakistan’s position.

Geopolitical kismet has played a defining role in Pakistan-US relations. But it is no coincidence that the relationship has thrived in periods of military rule. Realising that no abiding interests unite Pakistan and the US, the generals have ruthlessly maximised geopolitical rent-seeking to offset their weak bargaining position against American imperial power.

Yet historically, civilian Napoleons in the establishment and the political class have stood shoulder to tasselled shoulder with the generals. Even Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who likened himself to Hafez alAssad and Kim Il-Sung (comparisons that inspired pride rather than pity in those days), spent much diplomatic capital in upgrading ties with Washington. After all, Pakistan’s military machine, devastated in 1971, needed to be rebuilt to continue the ‘war of a thousand years’ against India.

But the civilian-military entente on India has fragmented since the late 1980s. Most political leaders worth their salt understand that Pakistani peace and prosperity, the legitimacy of civilian rule and the key to keeping the military confined to the barracks, are all tied to a settlement with India. Disposable civilian governments, military adventures like the Kargil fiasco, and even the recent choreographed furore over Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trade status for India are all signposts of military pushback against a potential settlement.

Even now, the military establishment’s real fear is not continuing a servile relationship with the US, but the approaching reality of a return to the 1990s, when Pakistan faded into insignificance for US foreign policy. This fear is now mingled with terror at the prospect of the US forging an alliance with India instead, something a break in relations could hasten.

Thus, Pakistani dependence on the US will remain as long as the country is tied to a paradigm of confrontation with India. And there are no stand-ins in the wings. Despite misinformed assertions to the contrary, China possesses neither the political will, nor the economic clout or military muscle to replace US largesse. With an eye on Uighur unrest, China is also increasingly sceptical of Pakistan’s proxy jihadists, a dangerously infectious disease cultivated in Pakistan’s anti-India military laboratory. More obviously, it makes little sense to swap dependency on the US for China.

Confrontation with India and the resultant dependence on the US has made Pakistan an absurd place where security is measured in externally oriented F-16s even when these contribute to the daily internal insecurities of poverty, ill-health, illiteracy etc. It has also populated the country with horrors: the suicide bomber, the killer drone and ever-deepening intolerance are the enfants terribles of our policy failures. All this has made Pakistanis more violently anti-American than even the Iraqis, Afghans, Cubans or Iranians.

Ironically, the loudest anti-American voices in Pakistan also tend to be the most anti-Indian. They conveniently blind themselves to the reality that to break free of dependence on the US, Pakistan must reboot its strategic security doctrines and must remain steadfast on the path to normalising relations with India. Exteriority and incompleteness are encoded in the DNA of Pakistan’s national vision. This vision has failed. Only in making peace with India can Pakistan make peace with itself.

Absolutely correct. No dalliance with Turkey or Iran or China or even the US will set Pak on a course of stability or prosperity until Pak comes to terms with India which requires it to first come to terms with its own self. If there is a future for Pak, and that may well be as 4 independent countries of Balunchistan Pashtunistan, Sindh and Punjab, it lies in finding the courage to accept reality rather than live in delusion. Wither Pak goes will have a massive impact on geopolitical relations and global peace.

@Shah:
We see no contradiction in sending our kids to the west while wanting to see it’s demise at the same time. For us , our “Islamic” vision compels us to take advantage and bring them down from within and outside.

Brilliantly written article but since it speaks the truth and the Deep State and other readers of ET who claim to be educated but are truly ignorant disagree, they will either object on some inane grounds or not comment at all.

A tour de force. Brilliantly captures Pakistan’s foreign policy contradictions advocated by the security establishment and the ghairat obsessed. Bravo. And take care of yourself with such candid views.

We don’t need America to confront India. Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own. All the aid from the US is part of a greater strategy of Indians and Americans to weaken Pakistan.

@N:
and then people complain when there’s noticeable concern towards Islam in the West. “We find it unacceptable for you to have a problem with us even with our stated intent until we get a good enough foothold to kill you.”

@Waqar Zaka, how many times have you defeated India. Better you take a visit to the war musum in India where 90000 unfiroms of our brave soldiers are hanging as trophy. Your emotions & false pride is of no use to Pakistan & its people. Outsourcing war by employing sucide bombers is the only acheievement you can have crdit for.

@Waqar Zaka – when exactly did we show any capability to defeat India? And for arguments sake, even if we assume that somehow we actually won in 1965 and in 1971 (and we gave up East Pakistan out of what, good will? 90,000 Pakistani prisoners of war were a Christmas present?) then we still did it with American tanks, American artillery, American planes and American training. If US aid is part of some American Indian plot then why doesn’t our army simply reject it instead of complaining about not receiving enough aid? Open your eyes. This young writer has hit the nail directly on the head. If Pakistan wants to live with dignity it has to realize what is possible and what is not possible to do with our own resources. Keeping up military confrontation with second largest country in the world falls under the heading of not possible.

Is Pakistan the worlds largest arms importer or India ? Does Pakistanis media mock and insult Pakistan or Indian ?
Everyone accuses pak military of being hawks but musheraff went out of his way to get ease fire and Kashmir deal by India is run by extremist hawks who want greater India and control Pakistan

It is not 65 or 71 anymore and PK does not need to be underwritten by any country. Pakistan is much more stronger. In fact Pakistan can underwrite any country or alliance who need protection including Nato and india. Kasmir is not a dispute and it is a strictly a human rights issues and econic issue. As long Kashmir is not liberated there can be no freindly relations with india. Pakistan at this time holding all the good cards while india is having no card left to play, it is a matter of time before Kahmir will be liberated. No author can can convince any sensible person in PK who is having direct impact of indian ‘Friendship”. Our rivers are drying since india has already divereted three rivers to East Punjab and is busy doing the same for the remaining three.

@Waqar Zaka: “We don’t need America to confront India. Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own.”

You mean like in 1965, 1971, Siachin, Kargil etc etc, right?

There is a reason why Generals shut down History Departments in educational institutions when in power and promote Nasim “Hijazi” version of history which begins with Ibn E Ziad and ends with Ibn E Qasim.

if you are talking about us aid ! pakistan doesn,t realy need that if pakistan govt start putting custom duties on item us govt import for their forces in ifgan via pak. approximately 4500 containers every month and duty become million and billions of dollars every year. so don,t ever forget this part us and nato forces getting every thing as they are getting here in usa and europe. no aid just pay duties on your own things.

Or maybe the USA will say enough is enough — outright side with India and put them under their Strategic Initiative Nuke Umbrella and focus on containing Pakistan which they consider unreliable, unstable, and a danger to the rest of the World.

Waqar Zaka : Pl continue to live in delusion and distorted history. Read some sensible sources on Pak losing 1965, 1971 and Kargil and pl withdraw your senseless post. The only Army which surrendered to the enemy in a war in the recent history is that of Pakistan. That speaks a lot about your “Ghairat”

@Waqar Zaka:
Pray tell us O’country man when and which war have our military defeated India? Brainwashed we live in a fantasy land with manufactured facts and conspiracies all around! You forgot to add Israel to the usual list of suspects – india and USA.

to Waqar Zaka,, u are obviously an extremely intelligent man,,, pls tell me how aid given by USA can weaken u…. and if ur country is so rich and self-sustaining why not return or refuse the aid.
U are right about india though,,, u confronted india in 1971, india got scared and gave u Bangladesh… whoops

If india and pakisan will join hand then every thing will be all right..it is essential nt only for india or pakistan bt for whole region..bt some mad dog from both side dont want to see it coz they r mad.. Very impressive article..thanks to author..

@Waqar Zaka:
So You say that “Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own!” Wow, I always thought that Pakistan LOST the 4 wars it fought with India!

So please list those 4 “conflicts” between Pakistan and INDIA, and explain to us how Pakistan “defeated” India each and every time! By the way, how are things going in EAST PAKISTAN these days?

@Waqar Zaka:
“Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own.”
This is more Pakistani double-talk – often referred to as a pack of nonsense (or just plain lies!).
I must refer you to the following article that appeared in the Express Tribune on December 7:

absolutely true.. Pakistan lost everything coz of its obsession with India.. India on the other hand has moved way ahead of Pakistan because it focused more on its development than Pakistan.Nobody today cares about Pakistan in India..They care more about their own lives and success. Who initiated wars both proxy and direct, each time it was Pakistani Army. Thats says lot about the priorities of Pakistan’s successive govt.’s

Pakistan must build durable and friendly relations with all countries, not just India. Trying to overreach and wanting to have the say on who holds power in a neighboring country will bring nothing but grief. The Politics of playing the role of “dog in the manger” or spoiler always has limited utility and must be avoided.

@ Waqar Zaka – ” Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own” Also when did India organize aid for Pak from Americans? Even stupidity has limits. Let Pakistan fight its internal terrorist elements and puts its government in order, then talk about India, America

Once we have resolved our ‘Taliban Problem’ through negotiation, our concerns of Indian threat and Kashmir etc will –repeat will– be over. Let me explain:

Our Army is, according to Ayesha Siddiqua, a Fauji Foundation’s vast Industry owning, Real Estate building, Defence Societies related institution. What can happen if it became oriented to Pakistan Ideology in REAL spirit, giving up its foregoing indulgences. It will then resemble more the ideological armies, like the ones commanded by Mao, Castro and Ho Chi Minh. Castro defeated USA in Bay of Pigs, Mao defeated USA in Korea, and Ho Chi Minh’s Giap beat the day lights out of American military pride in Vietnam; when short of using nukes the Americans did everything from using state of the art weaponry to employing the awesome number of more than half a million troops on Vietnam soil.

Now consider the Jehadist track record. The Soviet super power did bite the dust in Afghanistan and was broken up because of punishing Jehadist onslaughts. Now the USA has been thoroughly tired by being on the Jehadist chopping block for over ten years. American public is tired of their 1% adventurers wasting gargantuan resources and the 99% now want to put an end to it.

The bottom line is we do not need to be related to USA to protect us from India–Period. Yes, we shall always be grovelling at the feet of any power that could protect us from India if we continue with the Army that Ayesha Siddiqa has described with truth and precision. Recommend

@Waqar Zaka:Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own.

You remind me of that famous passage from “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”:

It is said that Zaphod Beeblebrox’s birth was marked by earthquakes, tidal waves, tornadoes, firestorms, the explosion of three neighbouring stars, and, shortly afterwards, by the issuing of over six and three quarter million writs for damages from all of the major landowners in his Galactic sector. However, the only person by whom this is said is Beeblebrox himself, and there are several possible theories to explain this.

I wonder if you and Beeblebrox are related — you both inhabit this fantastic world, which is obviously not on Earth.

Thank you bhai. Your comment had me laughing for a long time.
Have you been reading madrassa sanctioned history again?
Wake up! The army has lost every war it has fought or at best fought to a stalemate.

@waqar, Like pakistan army protected its territory(east pakistan) in 1971 while fighting with India.Do you want to know what national anthem they play in dhaka by checking with the pakistani ambassador there?

@Waqar Zaka:
These sort of false bravado will not get you anywhere..You folks prove author is right..BTW, which of the wars with India that your forces won..At the best only 1965 ended in a stalemate and you lost all others..1971 war left India with 90,000 Pakistani POWs…so continue your day dreaming while your country goes in to abyss…

We don’t need America to confront India. Our forces have time and again shown that we are more than capable of defeating India on our own.

Can you list out the Arms, Tanks, Aircraft, Ships etc that you were using when you were ‘defeating India time and again on your own’?
Easier still find out who manufactures Pattons, Abrams, F 16s, Sioux, M14, Jeeps, P-3C Orion etc etc.

@Waqar Zaka:
“You can say all you want. Who will protect us when India and US attack? The rich civilian leadership will flee to the western countries. It is the army that has always come to our rescue.”

But why would India attack Pakistan unless its forced to do by Pakistanis. Indian priority is economic growth. Why should it change its priority? I think its time for Pakistan to realise this truth. And this is the truth the author is trying to drill into your head.

@Waqar Zaka:
I think you are a baised Indian who want to check the general knowledge of others. Even a primary student will be aware of the outcomes of the wars between India & Pakistan and will never say such foolish thingsRecommend

Excellent article but beyond the mental reach of an average Pakistani since they will just put it aside as RAW+CIA+MOSSAD conspiracy. Final victory will be ours! In fact I can see the shadows of victory waving & saying hello to Pakistanis & ummah a Islami.

You will be surprised to know what Pakistanis are told about all matters Indian. I suggest you go to YouTube and search for Najam Sethi, a well known, and respected Pakistani journalist. He will tell you how Pakistanis have been fooling themselves for ages, and, what they have done with history. Views of Aysha Jalal, a respected Pakistani historian can be found on web-site of Radio Open Source.

@Waqar Zaka: “You can say all you want. Who will protect us when India and US attack? The rich civilian leadership will flee to the western countries. It is the army that has always come to our rescue”

India has not attacked in the past and will not do so in future.

During past wars army lost and civilians are the ones who protected Pakistan. Army surrendered in 1971 with 90000 prisoners of war. Bhutto negotiated to get them back. In Kargill too Nawaz Sharif is the one who had to run to Washington to prevent things getting out of control.

@waqar-pakistan’s biggest enemy is not india or america but the militants considered as strategic assetsand supported by Isi and army. Your government keeps blaming India and America for political compulsions. It is high time you guys understand who the real enemies are and act accordingly without wasting time

@Waqar Zaka: Please give me one good reason why India should attack u ? Do u have oilfields,goldmines, diamond mines……….please update our geography. Trust me no country in its senses would want to takeover Pakistan please relax and be at ease. We have enough problems of our own to take over Pakistan with all your problems. Take a chill pill

@jagjit sidhoo:
We will not trust india no matter what. They took advantage and split Pakistan in two parts in 71. Only retards forget history.

On the other hand Pakistan did a big favor by not attacking india while india treid to mess with China in 1963. Chairmain Moa was surprised that why PK did not take the advantage of golden oppertunity to liberate Kashmir at that time since all indian army was deployed at Chines border.

Mark my words. 2nd Mellanium first part was dominated by Muslims in world and 2nd by Christanity. Third Mellanium belongs to Muslims in full. Current world muslim population is somewhere between 45% to 55%. The duplication time of Muslims is between 20-25 years from conversions, and higher birth rate. With that growth rate Muslims will be the only significant force in the world with hindus and christians being minority. Remember this will happen within next 20-25 years. With that said with that majestic majority world affairs will start falling in favor of Muslims. Mulims need to sit tight and relax.

OK. So, what are the priorities here? Muslims or Pakistan? If Pakistan collapses tomorrow, its population (Muslim) will still be there as citizens of Punjab or Sindh or Balochistan. Bangladesh is an example. Will that be acceptable to you? If not, then discuss Pakistan, not Islam.

@agthagola:
After reading your comment, I burnt my degrees in political science and commerce. You truly have the vision of future. Pls take me as your student for rest of my life. I don’t want to open my eyes again!

@agthagola: Pakistan population is the only one that is taught this ummah concept. No-one else believes in it. If they did,
– Bangladesh would not have separated from Pakistan,
– Iraq and Iran would not have fought a war for 8 years.
– Sultan of Bahrain would not be using Pakistan’s army to oppress its Shia majority.
– Saudi Arabia would not be asking US to destroy Iranian nuclear program.
– Iraq would not have attacked Kuwait
– UAE would not have sub-leased Shamsi to USARecommend

The fact is that Indians do not hate Pakistanis; only Pakistanis hate Indians. That is because Pakistanis are taught modified history in schools. Pakistan has been unmindful of the harmful effects on children that this policy results in. Most Pakistanis even think and say that India is a hindu country, just as Pakistan is a Muslim one. This is not true; India is a secular democracy where people enjoy freedom of religion. All religions can be found in India.

Pakistanis are the only people in the whole world who hate Indians; no one else does. Just stop hating and see the magic.

HATRED hurts the person who caries it in his heart; NOT the object of that hatred.

( Is it not ironic that I should be telling all this to a person named ‘Historic truth’? By the way, I am a Pakistani who has lived in India since October 1947. )