In looking at the table of the leading passer ratings in the NFL this year, I was disgusted to find how easy it has become to post a huge rating. Take a look at the top 10 passers in the NFL:

1

Peyton Manning

IND

114.5

2

Aaron Rodgers

GB

110.8

3

Drew Brees

NO

106.9

4

Matt Schaub

HOU

104.4

5

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

102.6

6

Brett Favre

MIN

102.2

7

Kyle Orton

DEN

100.1

8

Tom Brady

NE

99.9

9

Philip Rivers

SD

96.1

10

Tony Romo

DAL

94.7

Last year, there were 5 QBs who finished the year at 95 or better. Peyton Manning won the MVP with a passer rating of 95. Now, I realize that his rating was a bit lower than a normal MVP, because he was rewarded for his work over the final 8 games of the season, but still, it’s mind blowing to see that there are 10 QBs essentially playing at an MVP level right now. Dig a bit deeper and you find 4 more QBs over 90. It’s early in season still, and as the weather worsens some of these ratings will begin to drop on their own, but this is ridiculous.

We’ve all grown accustomed to the growth of the passing game in the NFL, but this is a quantum leap even from last year, and there is no discernible rule change to cause it. I don’t like the ‘Brady rule’, but I seriously doubt it’s the sole reason QBs are posting massive numbers all over the league.

In fact, the culprit is obvious. There are a crapload of bad teams. Just check out Sunday’s Hangover (ho ho! I snuck that plug in on you. You are permitted to feel violated.). It’s one blowout after another.

My theory is that the 6 worst teams (those with zero or one win) in the NFL are so bad that they are skewing the passing stats. Check out the top 10 QBs by passer rating against the other 26 NFL teams and verses the Sh***y Six (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa, Tennessee, the Rams and the Chiefs…a combined 3-37):

Rating

Other 26

Sh***y Six

Games against the SS

1

Peyton Manning

IND

114.5

114.5

114.5

2

2

Aaron Rodgers

GB

110.8

95.4

130.9

3

3

Drew Brees

NO

106.9

96.7

137

1

4

Matt Schaub

HOU

104.4

100

127.8

1

5

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

102.6

98.9

106.9

3

6

Brett Favre

MIN

102.2

99.9

107.2

3

7

Kyle Orton

DEN

100.1

104

83.5

1

8

Tom Brady

NE

99.9

85.9

137.1

2

9

Philip Rivers

SD

96.1

91.8

122.6

1

10

Tony Romo

DAL

94.7

80

126.7

2

The six worst teams in football are ruining the game. Take out the Six, and you have 7 players over 95 (compared with 5 last year) and just three over 100. The only guys who haven’t benefited from the 6 are Manning (who is incredibly at 114.5 against the other 26 and 114.5 against the 6) and Kyle Orton (and nobody knows what the hell is up with him). Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers have feasted on the 6, and their numbers are greatly inflated.

So the next time someone tries to sell you on the idea that so and so is a great QB or is having a great season just because of his numbers, make sure you find out how many of the Sh***y Six he’s played. It makes all the difference.

UPDATE: I was asked to produce last year’s passer rating chart through week seven. I had to recreate it using yahoo sports’ week by week results and manually inputting the totals into a passing calculator. Here’s what I have. If it’s not 100%, it should be close.

Philip Rivers

SDG

108.5

Tony Romo

DAL

103.5

Kurt Warner

ARI

102.8

Aaron Rodgers

GNB

98.8

Trent Edwards

BUF

98.8

Ben Roethlisberger

PIT

98.1

Chad Pennington

MIA

97.4

Jason Campbell

WAS

96.2

Jeff Garcia

TAM

93.3

Donovan McNabb

PHI

93.2

We see three players over 100 (verses 7 this year) and 8 over 94.7 (verses 10 this year).

I think it shows that:

1. There is clearly inflation this year (although i suppose it could be argued that it’s largely just the result of Brady and Manning being healthy).

2. There will be some regression (see Campbell, Jason and Edwards, Trent)