Test bowlers analysis: a follow-up

Based on the comments received, both in public and personal mails, I have made the following tweaks to the Test Bowlers Analysis.

Match performance ratings

1. Halve the balls bowled base points (a wicket equivalent for about 45 overs).
2. Introduce the bowler strike rate, in relation to team strike rate, as a new base measure, at a relatively lower weight.
3. Minor changes to the batsman dismissed base point calculation, to be based on recent form. This will lower the value of wickets of top batsmen while going through a poor patch and increase the weight of capturing in-form batsmen.

Career measures:

1. Have a cut-off of 200 wickets for the current era, reducing the number from 89 to 44. We have lost Shoaib Akhtar, Steyn, Alderman, Bishop et al. But it cannot be helped.
2. Increase the Wickets weight from 5 points to 7.5 points. Within this, do a 5% on either side (105% & 95%) valuation for away and home wickets.
3. Correspondingly reduce the Wickets per Innspell weight from 5 points to 2.5 points.
4. Remove the Performance Ratio measure, the last column in the table.
5. Instead introduce the Peer Comparison ratios. This time I have allotted an equal weight for strike Rate and accuracy.
6. Introduce a simple 5-Test slice based Consistency index using wickets captured as the indicator. Also include the % of wicket spells out of qualifying spells as a consistency measure.

Revised allocations of the Career points:

The points have gone up to 45 and there is a slight increase in the Match performance points because of changes in Base points calculation.

Let us look at the revised tables. I am not going to make too many comments and will let the readers draw their own conclusions. The overall feeling I get is that there are not that many changes indicating that the initial methodology itself was quite sound.

Let me make one thing clear. Any one of the top-10 bowlers, possibly Donald excepted and Wasim Akram/Holding considered instead, could easily be considered the best of this era. Do not start sending brickbats because who you think (your) best bowler is placed at 3rd or 5th or 6th or 17th ... Instead think of this table, especially the top-10, as a list of the greatest bowlers of this era, with Muralitharan the first among equals.

The significant changes can be summarised below.

1. The most significant change is that Lillee and Hadlee exchange places with Hadlee moving to second and Lillee to fourth place. Warne remains sandwiched between these two great bowlers.
2. Imran, Marshall, McGrath and Waqar retain their places in the top-10 indicating that the changes cancelled each other out and their relative placings remained.
3. The next significant change is that Kumble moves out of the top-10 and is replaced by Donald. This is probably due to the differential weighing of home and away wickets. Donald and Ambrose are welcome additions to the top-10.
4. The sub-200 wicket brigade of Reid, Croft, Akhtar and Lawson move out of the top-20 and are replaced by the worthy quintet of Shaun Pollock, Garner, Walsh, Willis and McDermott.
5. The next significant change is that Harbhajan Singh moves out of the top-20 and is replaced by Botham. This is probably due to the differential weighing of home and away wickets.

The most significant change is that Grimmett and O'Reilly exchange places with O'Reilly moving to the top place and Grimmett to second place. The two great fast bowlers, Fazal Mahmood and Trueman move up couple of places. The top-10 remains the same.
The main change here is that Grimmett

It is no surprise that Sydney Barnes is the top-rated Pace/Medium Pace bowler of all time. Helpful wickets notwithstanding, 7 wickets per test at 16.43 is the stuff of the top-most drawer. The five great modern bowlers, Hadlee, Lillee, Imran, Marshall and McGrath follow next. Can one of these bowlers be denied this high position. Then come the two great pace bowlers of the mid era and then the master of the late swing and the white lightning. Look at the next ten bowlers and you will see how tough this table is.

As expected Muralitharan is on top by a comfortable margin from the trio of the greatest leg-spinners of all time, viz., Warne, O'Reilly and Grimmett. Then another totally different leg spinner, Kumble. Afterwards come a plethora of off-spinners, led by Tayfield and Laker. Chandrasekhar splits these off spinners. Bedi and Underwood follow immediately afterwards. If readers are surprised to see MacGill so high on the table, do not forget that he was devastating in Australia with a haul of nearly 5 wickets per test and a strike rate better than Murali.

I have done another selection. From each era I have picked the best 5-bowler balanced attack. This is my selection. You could do your own selection and mail me for publication. There are no restrictions whatsoever. This is your opportunity to have Marshall or Snow or Imran Khan or whoever lead the attack.

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