LANSING -- The State of Michigan, widely credited with righting its financial ship since 2011 after years of crisis, could find itself back in a deficit situation depending on decisions now being made in the Legislature's lame duck session, officials warned today.

"I passed out yesterday a Christmas stocking to members of the appropriations committee," state Sen. Roger Kahn, R-Saginaw, chairman of the appropriations committee, told the Free Press today.

"It contained a lump of coal and a document that shows the concerns for the next year."

The document details potential losses of $362 million in state revenue and $102 million in local revenue related to various tax bills pending or already passed in the Legislature.

The document says the amount of revenue the state will lose if the federal government breaches the "fiscal cliff" at the end of this year, triggering automatic spending cuts, is still to be determined.

But it identifies about $2.1 billion in other revenue issues unrelated to lame duck, including $1.4 billion in additional money needed to fix roads and a $145-million shortfall in the Health Insurance Claims Assessment tax.

Congressional leaders and President Barack Obama are working on a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, but Kahn said there are real state budget concerns even if the fiscal cliff is averted.

"We have to be very careful," Kahn said.

State Budget Director John Nixon is at a conference and unavailable for comment. His spokesman, Kurt Weiss, said, “Any time the Legislature passes legislation which increases state expenditures or reduces state revenues, outside of the budget process, we run the risk of seeing expenses outpace revenues.”

However, “the administration is strongly committed to ensuring that Michigan does not return to the days of routine, ongoing structural problems in the budget,” and is monitoring the situation closely, Weiss said.

Mary Ann Cleary, director of the House Fiscal Agency, also urged caution in an interview with the Free Press today.

"Both the School Aid Fund and the general fund are tight for 2014," Cleary said.

Cleary's immediate concern is House Bill 5696, which would change the way new and used cars and boats purchased from dealers would be taxed. Instead of paying sales tax on the entire purchase amount, the buyer would pay sales tax on only the difference between the purchase value and the value of any car or boat used as a trade-in in making the purchase.

Though the bill would phase in the change, it's estimated to immediately cut state revenues by $117 million and local revenues by $9.5 million, according to Kahn's document.

An amended version of the bill passed the Senate 37-1 Wednesday night, with Kahn casting the only no vote. A version in September passed the House, which would now have to concur with the Senate version before it can move on to Gov. Rick Snyder for his signature.

The Senate amendment Wednesday, phasing the change in over 10 years, will soften the immediate impact but did not ease Kahn's concerns.

A longer term issue, Cleary said, is the planned elimination of the personal property tax on commercial and industrial office furniture and equipment, which passed the Senate on Wednesday night and is also back before the House.

That change can impact the state budget by hundreds of millions of dollars, with the major impact starting in fiscal year 2016, Cleary said.

Administration officials have said the revenues will be replaced by expiring tax credits, but that replacement is not yet set out in law, she said.

Kahn said he shared concerns about the personal property tax, but has supported the change based on promises the revenue will be replaced by expiring industrial tax credits.

State Rep. Vickie Barnett, D-Farmington Hills, said no one should be surprised that the state is facing possible fiscal shortfalls.

After cutting corporate, personal property, sales and income taxes, "it seemed pretty clear that we were going to running out of money," she said. "This is something that most of us have been concerned about all session. They're moving bills without any fiscal analysis.

"You can't tax cut your way to prosperity," said Barnett, a financial planner.

State Rep. Jud Gilbert, R-Algonac, said he thought the phase-in aspect of the tax cuts over 10 years would help alleviate the potential for deficits.

"If it's just a monthly report, that's not a concern," he said. "But if revenues are way down for the year, then yes, that's a concern."