Cory Booker's lackluster campaign

Cory Booker is all but certain to win the New Jersey special election for U.S. Senate.

But as polls show Republican rival Steve Lonegan tightening the race, Booker is getting an uncomfortable reminder that he will have to campaign hard to defend the seat just a year from now, when he’d be up for a full term.

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Booker ad: 'Done'

Booker faces a tough test of the truncated race against Lonegan on Friday, when the Newark mayor and the former Bogota mayor face off in their first debate. For Lonegan, it’s a chance to test whether Booker has a glass jaw.

For Booker, it’s a chance to show he is engaged in the race, and not the celebrity candidate who’s off giving donors attention out of state, as Booker has, during the waning days of the campaign. It’s that sense of distance that has caused the race to close in recent days – so much so that Booker is underperforming Republican Gov. Chris Christie in a blue state.

Working in Booker’s favor is the fact that the debate is on a Friday, in the middle of the day. It won’t be widely broadcast, meaning most voters will learn about it from the media. It minimizes the potential impact of any gaffe or slip-up.

Still, Booker’s team is aware the race has become more competitive. If he wins by a relatively close margin, it could be an invitation to other Republicans to try their hand at challenging him next year. At a minimum, it would take the sheen off a national brand that Booker has cultivated for years.

“As long as he wins, he’ll end up dealing with whatever [the] margin” is, said Monmouth County pollster Patrick Murray. “He’s got a year to get over that, and it’ll be a wakeup call to work harder next year. … If he doesn’t win by a lot, I think most people are going to put the blame squarely on Cory Booker, and not on his advisers.”

He added, “What we’ve always known about Cory Booker’s popularity is it’s broad but it’s not deep.”

Among New Jersey politicos, one thing is not in dispute: Booker has, by almost any measure, run a flawed race. And many people have all but forgotten that this is a special election for a seat that will be up again in Nov. 2014.

Unprepared for the abbreviated special election called by Christie after Sen. Frank Lautenberg died in June, Booker hastily assembled a team to help him during the split-field primary election.

He has become rather relaxed since that August vote, and has resumed traveling out of state frequently to raise money, a fact that Lonegan has made great hay of in radio ads. Booker has painted a portrait of a celebrity who prefers to boost himself on the national stage than to be around the voters of New Jersey, and the attacks have worked.

Booker’s campaign responded in a statement that the criticism is misguided. Booker “has worked relentlessly throughout this campaign, balancing the imperatives of guiding the city he leads, talking to voters directly and raising the resources necessary to communicate effectively with voters in an expensive media market,” the statement read.