Solar Activity Report for 5/18/02

** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress ** ** Aurora Watch In Effect ** The CME mentioned in the report of 5/16 struck home around 2000 UTC today and set off a

Message 1 of 1
, May 18, 2002

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** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **

The CME mentioned in the report of 5/16 struck home around 2000 UTC
today and set off a G-1 class geomagnetic storm, which is ongoing. An
aurora watch is in effect, and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
currently has a strong south-pointing orientation. An IMF with a south
pointing orientation has the effect of weakening Earth's magnetic
field, thus making the Earth more vulnerable to solar wind gusts. The
result can be impressive auroral displays. Skywatchers in the higher
latitudes should keep an eye out tonight for aurora. Three M-class
flares have been produced in the last 24 hours, the largest being a
nice M-2 class event. Solar activity has the potential for increasing
over the next several days. Sunspot region 9957 has recently rotated
into view over the eastern limb of the solar disk, and it looks like
it could fire off an X-class flare. To make things even more
interesting, 9957 is being preceeded with what appears to be a
decent-sized coronal hole, which will be rotating into an Earth
pointing position around the middle of next week.

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9957 is
capable of producing an M-class event with a chance for an isolated
X-class event.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for 19 May
as the current CME passes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
for 20 and 21 May. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to
persist at moderate levels for the next two to three days.