April 13, 2010

The Thunder will be playing the Lakers in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Does the Thunder have a chance to be competitive? We think so.

By the way, we are available for hire during the playoffs. If interested give us a call at 812-322-4270.

For the season the Thunder played 3 points better than an average NBA team. After adjusting for the strength of opposition faced they also played 3 points better than average against the Lakers. My colleague Jeff Sagarin and I believe the Thunder can play much better than this. Here are some key points based on the Thunder’s performance this year. All numbers below are per 48 minutes and adjusted for strength of opponent(unless otherwise indicated)

When Green, Westbrook, and KD are in the Thunder are good (5 points better than average.) But with KD and Westbrook in and Green out the Thunder are fantastic 16 points better than average,

Resting KD well is important to The Thunder’s success. When KD is out the Thunder play 15 points worse than average. But when Collison, Westbrook, Green, and Harden are in and Sefelosha is out the Thunder play 16 points better than average (in 52 minutes).

Resting Westbrook well is also important. When Westbrook is out and KD , Collison, Harden, Ibaka and Maynor are in the Thunder play 23 points better than average in 153 minutes. The rest of the time Westbrook is out the Thunder played 9 points worse than average.

Maynor, Harden, and Collison should be playing more and Green and Sefelosha shouls be playing less. Green has an Adjusted +/- of -4, Sefelosha -8, Maynor -1, Collison +3 and Harden +3. This means for example, that after adjusting for the other 9 players on the court, our best estimate is that Collison, for example, makes the Thunder play 3 points better er 48 minutes than an average NBA player and Green makes Thunder play 4 points worse.

In the 4th quarter KD is great and Collison and Harden are average. The other Thunder regulars play very poorly in the 4th quarter. I would always close with COllison, Harden and Durant as my frontcourt.

Here are the Thunder’s best lineups during the regular season. For example, lineup 4A played 14 points better than average per 48 min (it played 153 minutes.

I feel like they might have a little trouble defending but that combo seems to have great balance and firepower. Green is undersized at the 4 (and will be murdered by Pau but I doubt Collison has the length to defend him either) hopefully Ibaka is quick enough to rotate over and then we just do the Harden/Thabo switch depending on how Kobe is playing..

Related to when KD is out, you say Collison, Westbrook, Green, and Harden looks good in general, but I am still not totally sure who that the best 5th guy is. My best guess is Ibaka. But that is only based on 20 minutes. I’d think after an entire season the team should have tested more and known this with more confidence.