Beleaguered Iraq extends the hand of friendship

An embassy reopens, flights resume between Iraq and Iran and Saddam Hussein finally acknowledges Kuwait's sovereignty. It looks as though the president is trying to escape the wrath of the United States, writes Brian Whitaker

The attack, if it happens, is likely to come in the second half of this year and will not be the usual bombing of Iraq's air defence systems. Its aim will be to remove Saddam from power.

Iraq's strategy for heading off such an attack is based on removing, as far as possible, likely pretexts for a military strike and minimising international support for it outside the US. If Saddam plays his cards right, Washington hawks could end up frustrated, bitterly disappointed and absolutely furious.

Iraq's diplomatic offensive consists of three strands.

The first is an attempt to enhance its image and generally improve its international relations. Last week, for example, Iraq invited the UN's special human rights investigator to visit the country for the first time in a decade. The investigator was originally appointed in 1991 but, after an initial visit in 1992, had never been allowed back. Since then, the UN commission on human rights has regularly accused Iraq of serious abuses. Also within the last week, Iraq made overtures towards Iran, the EU and Swtizerland.

The Iraqi embassy in Switzerland, which has been closed for 11 years, will reopen shortly.

Iraq also approached Spain, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, to "activate dialogue with the European Union".

Meanwhile, relations between Iraq and neighbouring Iran continue to improve. There were further releases of prisoners captured during the 1980-88 war, and Iraq announced recently that direct flights between the two neighbours will shortly resume after an interruption of more than 20 years.

Iran's neutrality or tacit support in any conflict between the US and Iraq will be vital for Saddam. It is worth recalling that many Iraqi warplanes escaped destruction during the 1991 Gulf war by taking shelter in Iran.

The second strand of the Iraqi strategy is to repair its relations with the Arab world, which essentially would be achieved by a reconciliation with Kuwait.

Iraq hopes this will happen at the Arab League's summit, to be held in Lebanon next month, and the league's secretary-general, Amr Moussa, has been shuttling round in an effort to resolve the outstanding differences.

At last year's summit in Jordan, Arab leaders were prepared to call for the lifting of sanctions and for an end to American and British bombing in the no-fly zones, but this was abandoned when Iraq objected to the wording of the draft statement. This time under threat of American attack, Iraq seems more amenable.

"Iraq sincerely wants to start a new era," an Iraqi diplomat said recently. "We recognise Kuwait as a sovereign country, and we recognise the borders that were enforced by the UN." Kuwaitis, however, are unsure whether to believe it. There have been plenty of incidents over the last decade to suggest that Iraq has not fully renounced its claim to Kuwait, including a parliamentary map showing Kuwait as part of Iraq. But the Iraqi media have recently begun to mention Kuwait and neighbouring Saudi Arabia in terms that imply they are now recognised as countries in their own right.

Mohammed al-Sager, chairman of the Kuwaiti parliament's foreign affairs committee, agrees that the Iraqis are using "new language", but wonders if it is just window dressing. "Nobody can predict," he says. "When they feel threatened they are ready to do anything."

The other big issue for Kuwait, apart from protection of its sovereignty, is the fate of more than 600 Kuwaitis who were detained by the Iraqis during the 1990-91 invasion and have not been seen since. Kuwait says it has evidence that at least some of them are still alive and being held in Iraq as a bargaining counter.

Up to now, Iraq has insisted that it has no idea what happened to them, though it is clear from testimony provided by relatives that the missing Kuwaitis were in the hands of Iraqi officials at the time of their disappearance. Again, Iraq seems to have shifted its position on this issue. "If we sit together I think we can arrive at a solution," an Iraqi official said.

The third strand of Iraq's strategy involves the UN security council and concerns sanctions and weapons inspections. In this area, Iraq has pinned most of its hopes on the Russians, who have strong political and financial reasons for wanting to break the impasse.

Success would enhance Russia's standing at a time when international politics is dominated by the US, and the economic benefits to Russia would be substantial. Among other things, the Iraqis are hinting that Russia, rather than the US, would get most of the contracts for refurbishing Iraq's oil industry once sanctions are lifted.

The Russian plan would identify the sites in Iraq that are still to be inspected, with a time limit for completing the inspections. The inspectors would return to Iraq and, if they reported that the Iraqi authorities were cooperating, sanctions would be suspended. On completion, the sanctions would be permanently lifted. In the Russian plan, the time between the return of inspectors and the final lifting of sanctions is expected to be relatively short.

Russia has made it clear to Iraq that there can be no progress towards lifting sanctions unless it does allow the inspectors to return. While Iraq says it has no problem with that, they say: "We want inspectors not spies. They must be sincere in their goal and not seeking to prolong the sanctions." Iraq also says it does not want the inspection team to be dominated by Americans. On purely political grounds, that may be a reasonable argument, but there are suspicions that Iraq's aim is to get a team of inspectors who will either lack the necessary expertise or not look too closely for hidden weapons programmes.

Russia has told Baghdad that it is not up to the Iraqis to decide on the inspection team, though it agrees there should be "a more balanced picture regarding the geographical representation of the UN inspectors".

So, if all goes according to Saddam Hussein's plan, Iraq will be rehabilitated by the Arab League next month and in May, when the oil-for-food progamme comes up for its six-monthly renewal in the security council, Russian proposals for resuming weapons inspections and lifting sanctions will be approved. That would bring an end to more than a decade of conflict and, unless something new turned up in the meantime, the Americans would have no excuse for attacking Iraq.

There is, however, a lot that could blow those plans off course.

The Kuwaitis may remain unconvinced that Iraq's acceptance of their sovereignty is genuine. The Americans, having deftly incorporated weapons of mass destruction as a target in the "war on terrorism", may not be in the mood to accept symbolic inspections in Iraq.

The Iraqis, while emphasising their willingness to cooperate with weapons inspections, may point out that part of security council resolution 687 applies to nuclear weapons in Israel as well as Iraq, and insist that something be done about that.

There is also plenty of historical evidence that Saddam tends to overestimate the level of support that he enjoys among foreign governments. The danger is that he may not offer enough concessions, or may offer them too late, to secure a deal.

Meanwhile, it is equally possible that the Americans, as they begin to look at the military options for removing Saddam, will get cold feet. That could bring us, by the end of this year, neither war nor peace with Iraq but more of the same old mess.