Apple’s Tim Cook samples Bollywood, cricket, in bid to woo India

“Apple Inc. Chief Executive Tim Cook met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi Saturday, the most high-profile engagement yet on Mr. Cook’s dayslong charm offensive in a crucial but challenging market for the company’s growth,” Newley Purnell and Rajesh Roy report for The Wall Street Journal.

“Mr. Cook shared Apple’s plans in India with Mr. Modi and the pair spoke about manufacturing and retailing in the country, a government statement said. Mr. Modi in turn explained his Digital India initiative and sought support from the company in furthering the objectives of the program, which aims to connect hundreds of millions of villagers to the Internet,” Purnell and Roy report. “A senior government official who declined to be named said that Mr. Cook was asked to explore the possibility of setting up a local manufacturing unit in India to meet the growing demand for its products.”

“Analysts said Mr. Cook is likely to advocate for Apple’s existing proposal to refurbish and sell secondhand iPhones in the country, which would be key given 70% of smartphones sold last year in India cost less than $150,” Purnell and Roy report. “In addition, Apple in January said it had sought government permission to open its own retail stores and sell products online to supplement Indian-owned distribution firms and retailers.”

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I would be stunned if Apple were able to acquire even 5% market share in India. Everyone in India will be happily using Android smartphones. Every internet article will declare Apple fighting a losing battle to an unstoppable foe. When investors hear that, more Apple stock dumping will continue.

Major Android market share is all that matters to Wall Street and there’s nothing Tim Cook can do about it. Apple shareholders will continue to take heavy share price losses while the rest of the stock market soars. Tim Cook just doesn’t seem to realize Apple’s tenuous situation.

Apple has a huge market analysis staff and inputs of data I can’t even imagine to define the India market. Almost every tech company in Silicon Valley would trade it position for Apple’s profitability.

I call bogus on “Major Android market share is all that matters to Wall Street” because those Android sellers don’t make but a small fraction of the profits that Apple does on a smaller unit volume. Bingo.

Cook & crew are not going to miss out on that market opportunity. I predict they may even develops a special India iPhone that may contain fewer features and have lower cost as an entry level iPhone for India.

It is very obvious that setting up assembly in India is a long term beneficial concept, given the nearly 1.4 billion people in India. I can see Apple gaining significant market share in the large cities where incomes are larger.

What is Wall Street going to say when Google loses the Oracle case? I imagine Oracle will charge Google $50-$100 per seed. This will substantially increase the price of Android devices. And if Google was smart, they will tack on an extra $50 or so on top of the Oracle fee. What are manufacturers going to do? Will they develop their own competing OS and services?

So, if Oracle wins the case, which looks very likely, expect Android phones to substantially increase in price. This will make the iPhone much more attractive for the consumer that doesn’t understand value.

Does it help to relieve your gloom to see AAPL up on news of Tim Cook talking with India’s PM and other luminaries, lining up deals in person, doing something rather than moping like you? Give that pessimism a breather for once.

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