Share:

It’s important to keep two factors in mind when evaluating potential breakout players in the NBA: opportunity and incremental signs of improvement.

They usually go hand in hand. Giannis Antetokounmpo, for example, has made noticeable improvements to his game each and every season he’s been in the NBA to the point where Bucks head coach Jason Kidd was comfortable making him the team’s “point guard” last season. Without the improvements he made as a rookie and sophomore, Kidd wouldn’t have felt comfortable giving Antetokounmpo the platform he needed to breakout in the way he did. It was a similar development for other players who have been recognized for their breakout seasons in recent year, such as C.J. McCollum, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic and Paul George.

Those aren’t obviously the only factors involved, but they’re the main ones. With that in mind, let’s take a look at nine players — nearly all of whom are still on their rookie contracts — who tick both of those boxes to evaluate who could break out next season.

Myles Turner, Pacers

Turner made some notable improvements to his game last season. His per-36 numbers barely changed, but he went from attempting a total of 14 3-pointers as a rookie to 115 3-pointers as a sophomore. He knocked down 34.8 percent of those opportunities, helping him become only the seventh player in NBA history to average at least 0.5 made 3-pointers and 2.0 blocks per game.

Those stats give some insight into how unique Turner is as a prospect. While he isn’t on the same level of ball handling as Karl-Anthony Towns, passing as Nikola Jokic or post-up scoring as Joel Embiid, he’s a 6-11 center who can stretch the floor out to the 3-point line and anchor a defense. If he can continue to improve as a rim protector and 3-point shooter — in addition to becoming a reliable post-up threat and a passable perimeter defender — he has the potential to join Towns, Jokic and Embiid as the future of the center position.

Helping Turner reach that level is Paul George’s departure from the Pacers. It remains to be seen if Turner is someone capable of being the centerpiece of an elite offense and defense, but his increase in touches next season should give us a good indication of where he is trending.

Aaron Gordon, Magic

Gordon hasn’t developed as much as expected to this point in his career, much of which has to do with the fact the Magic have yet to turn him into a full-time power forward.

The stats tell you all you need to know: Gordon scored the bulk of his points last season in transition, as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls and on spot-ups — three play types you’d expect to see from a backcourt player — even though he failed to rank in the 50.0 percentile or better in efficiency. When it came to scoring as the roll man, off cuts and putbacks — play types you’d expect to see from a frontcourt player — Gordon ranked in the 70.0 percentile or better.

Those frontcourt plays only made up 18.0 percent of his offense on the season, but it goes to show how Gordon is better suited as a power forward. Whereas his inability to consistently space the floor makes him awkward fit at small forward, it’s not nearly as problematic at power forward because he has the speed and ball handling to take bigger players off the dribble. His athleticism also makes him a terrifying option as a roller and cutter when he’s surrounded by at least three shooters in the backcourt.

Seeing as Serge Ibaka is no longer around to eat up minutes at power forward, this should be the season Gordon takes the leap we’ve all been waiting for. If he doesn’t, then it might be time to re-evaluate our expectations before he enters restricted free agency.

Rodney Hood, Jazz

Injuries prevented Hood from having a breakout season with the Jazz in 2016-17. His scoring dropped by almost 2.0 points per game, and he wasn’t as reliable of a shooter from both the field and free-throw line. He went on to struggle in the playoffs with an average of 8.9 points per contest on 35.2 percent shooting, although he did knock down some big shots in the first round.

As long as Hood can stay healthy, he should be able to bounce back from a disappointing season and prove himself as one of the best young shooting guards in the league again. Besides, with Gordon Hayward and George Hill no longer on the roster, Hood is now the Jazz’s best scoring option in the backcourt. Ricky Rubio will take over as the primary playmaker, but Hood will be counted on to stretch the floor at a high rate and create more in the pick-and-roll than he ever has before as a secondary ball handler.

Put those factors together, and Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey believes Hood could average close to 20 points per game next season.

There’s reason to believe Hood can take on that load. Half of his scoring has come from spot-ups and pick-and-rolls over the last two seasons, and he’s been in the 75th percentile or better in both categories during that time. His size as a 6-7 shooting guard makes him a matchup nightmare, and he’s a walking three-level scorer.

He certainly has the skills needed to thrive as a guard in today’s NBA. It’s just a matter of him seizing the opportunity and staying healthy.

Gary Harris, Nuggets

Harris already had a breakout season of sorts in 2016-17. He got off to a slow start — a partially torn groin muscle forced him to miss 20 games before Christmas — but he averaged 16.9 points in his final 31 games of the season, doing so on 52.1 percent shooting from the field, 43.4 percent from the perimeter and 80.0 percent from the free throw line.

Harris has developed into the ideal backcourt player to pair with Nikola Jokic and his playmaking ability at center. A quarter of Harris’ offense came from spot-ups last season and another 45.2 percent came from a combination of cuts, handoffs and transition opportunities. He ranked in the 74.0 percentile or better in each of those categories except for handoffs.

Based on those numbers, it should come as no surprise that 76.6 percent of his baskets were assisted. That’s important considering the Nuggets signed Paul Millsap, who is a similar offensive weapon to Jokic at power forward, this offseason. If Harris can continue to dominate off ball like he did last season — hit 3-pointers at a high rate and make the lives of Jokic and Millsap easier by keeping defenses engaged — he will only become more valuable as the Nuggets develop into a playoff contender in the loaded Western Conference.

D’Angelo Russell, Nets

The trade centered around Russell and Brook Lopez this offseason was beneficial for both teams. The Lakers created positional space for Lonzo Ball and avoided tying up future salary that could prevent them from getting the likes of Paul George and LeBron James next offseason. For the Nets, they acquired a former No. 2 overall pick who can give them some of the upside they’ve been missing over the last two seasons.

The trade also made sense for the individuals involved, especially when it comes to Russell. Not only will he no longer have to deal with the same expectations in Brooklyn, he’ll have the green light to score and facilitate in volume alongside Jeremy Lin.

More importantly, Russell should benefit from playing for a head coach who is known for his player development and has installed a system that will play to his strengths. (The Nets were No. 1 in pace and No. 4 in 3-point attempts in Kenny Atkinson’s first season with the team; 12.3 percent of Russell’s scoring came in transition and almost half of his shot attempts were 3-pointers last season.)

Despite failing to meet expectations as a sophomore, this is an ideal situation for Russell to become the star many believed he had the potential to be when he was drafted. He was a breakout candidate last season, but this should be the season he makes the jump.

Jusuf Nurkic, Trail Blazers

Before they acquired Nurkic at the trade deadline last season, the Trail Blazers were struggling to keep themselves in the playoff race. Nurkic then gave them the push they desperately needed to win 14 of their next 20 games. While Nurkic was eventually ruled out for the final seven games of the regular season, the Blazers ended up making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.

Prior to his injury, Nurkic averaged 15.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.3 steals per game in a Blazers uniform. He’d join an impressive list of players if he can sustain those numbers over the course of entire season, one including Hall of Famers such as David Robinson, Shaquille O’Neal, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Tim Duncan, Karl Malone and Kevin Garnett. But even if he can’t sustain those same numbers, Nurkic still has the potential to break out for the Blazers because of what he brings to the table on both ends of the floor.

Acting as extra motivation is the contract extension he’ll be eligible for in the summer of 2018. With only 159 games played in his NBA career, Nurkic still has a lot to prove before a team like the Blazers commits a lot of money to him. A healthy and productive season would eliminate a lot of those concerns.

Stanley Johnson, Pistons

Johnson took a big step back in his second season with the Pistons. His stats dropped across the board, and he only shot 29.2 percent from the perimeter. His time on the court even dropped significantly from 23.1 minutes per game as a rookie to 17.8 minutes per game as a sophomore, which is a worrying development for someone who was drafted No. 8 only two years ago.

The good news for Johnson is he should have a bigger role next season. While it remains to be seen if he will start at small forward — it should be between him and Tobias Harris — trading Marcus Morris for Avery Bradley means Johnson will have far less competition at his natural position. It also means he won’t have to play as much shooting guard next season because Bradley, Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway should give the Pistons enough depth for Johnson to alternate between small forward and power forward depending on the lineups.

Johnson’s version of breaking out might be different compared to other players on this list, but he should be able to make an impact for a team hoping to reach the playoffs. It might be something as simple as small improvements to his 3-point shooting while logging more minutes.

Blake Griffin, Clippers

The difference between Griffin and everyone else on this list is he’s already an established player. He’s been named an All-Star five times since he was drafted in 2009, and he has career averages of 21.5 points, 9.4 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game.

However, Griffin hasn’t been as dominant of a player over the last two seasons, and he’ll take on a new role as the primary scorer and facilitator for the Clippers following Chris Paul’s trade to the Rockets. It’s why Griffin could “break out” next season.

We already have a good idea of what Griffin could look like in that role. There aren’t many players at his position who can set up their teammates as well as he can, and he’s developed into a versatile scorer capable of running his own pick-and-roll. Assuming Doc Rivers surrounds him with the types of players who can maximize his skill set as a point-forward, Griffin could find himself in the MVP conversation if the Clippers are able to compete for a playoff spot.

Skal Labissiere, Kings

Labissiere barely played as a rookie. He appeared in only 33 games with the Kings, logging 18.5 minutes per contest. Most of those minutes came following the All-Star break, as he played a total of 52 minutes between the start of the season and Feb. 15.

In those minutes in the back end of the season, though, Labissiere flashed some potential. He blocked four shots against the Magic in his second career start on March 13. He then scored 32 points on 11-for-15 shooting against the Suns two nights later. He also scored 25 points against the Rockets on 10-for-12 shooting in one of the last games of the season. It helped him average 11.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 steals in 23.1 minutes per game from March onwards.

More importantly, the way in which Labissiere scored the bulk of his points make him a unique center in today’s NBA. As Ian Levy of Nylon Calculus pointed out, he averaged 0.97 points per post-up possession, 1.23 points per spot-up possession and 0.87 points per possession as the screener in pick-and-rolls. Of the 23 big men who scored at least 10 percent of their points out of each of those plays last season, Levy notes, Labissiere ranked No. 8 in overall efficiency.

It will obviously be hard for Labissiere to sustain those numbers for an entire season, but he’ll have an opportunity to build on his success as a sophomore now that DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay are no longer on the team and prove why he was once considered a can't-miss prospect.