Tuesday, June 28, 2016

In Trump vs. Clinton, What Happens to the ‘Neither’ Voters?

Take a deep breath, America: this is shaping up to be a hold-your-nose election.

Just last month, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump seemed to vanish, with Mr. Trump even leading in a handful of polls. But June saw Mr. Trump’s poll numbers sink amid his repeated criticism of a federal judge presiding over a pair of lawsuits brought against Trump University, as well as his response to the shooting at an Orlando gay club. In nearly 20 national polls conducted this month, Mrs. Clinton has led in every one, by an average of nearly six points. Mr. Trump’s best showing in that period was 45%, a mere 5 points higher than Mrs. Clinton’s worst number. In more than half of all June surveys, he has polled in the 30s.

CLICK CHART to ENLARGE

But note that Mrs. Clinton’s numbers remain well below 50%. That’s because a remarkable number of voters so far are choosing neither Mr. Trump nor Mrs. Clinton. The chart below shows the percentage of poll respondents who aren’t backing either major-party candidate. Those “other” or “undecided” numbers are well above where they were at this point in the last two presidential races.

CLICK CHART to ENLARGE

First, we should note that since 2008 and 2012 there’s been a big increase in online and automated phone polling, which typically offer an explicit “undecided” or “other” option. Most telephone polls that use live interviewers don’t; respondents must volunteer that answer. So it’s possible that the proliferation of internet and automated polls is responsible for at least part of the increase in undecideds.

But certainly a far bigger factor in this election is that the two major-party candidates simply aren’t very well liked. On average, the percentage of people with an unfavorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton is 13 points higher than those with a favorable opinion. For Mr. Trump, his favorability deficit is more than 25 points.