Israel and U.S. to Hold Military Exercises When Iran Deal Ends

Despite the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran, Israel will still beat the drum of protest until the six-month agreement expires, when a joint military exercise with the U.S. will help it ram a message home to the Iranians, says a high-ranking Israeli official

Over the next six months, while Washington and other world powers bend to the nitty-gritty of rolling back Iran’s nuclear program through talks, Israel will likely continue to dissent, while making conspicuous efforts to rehabilitate the military threat that did so much to bring Tehran’s project onto the agenda.

“The strategic decision is to continue to make noise,” a high-ranking Israeli officer tells TIME. The racket, the official says, will come to a head in six months, just as the interim agreement signed on Sunday is due to expire.

“In May there’s going to be a joint training exercise with the Americans,” says the officer, who asked not to be identified since he was discussing operations not yet officially announced. “It’s going to be big.”

Israel and the U.S. routinely hold joint exercises, and a spokesman for the U.S. European Command (EUCOM) said the exercise in the spring was planned independent of events unfolding in the region. “I think we’re still in the process of deciding the scale of the exercise,” says Captain John W. Ross, the EUCOM spokesman.

But if war is the continuation of politics by other means, as the military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously put it, war games are an opportunity to make a statement without spilling blood — especially given the view (which increased sharply after U.S. President Barack Obama demurred on his vow to strike Syria) that Washington has cooled on the prospect of new military operations. “The wind from the Americans into the Israeli sails is, ‘We will maintain our capability to strike in Iran, and one of the ways we show it is to train,’” the senior Israeli officer tells TIME. “It will send signals both to Israel and to the Iranians that we are maintaining our capabilities in the military option. The atmosphere is we have to do it big time, we have to do a big show of capabilities and connections.”

Months remain for that to change, of course. But to those watching closely — including Tehran — full-throated U.S. participation in a May 2014 joint exercise would stand in especially vivid contrast to what transpired in the last large joint exercise: Washington quietly scaled back its level of participation, amid fears that Israel was growing too bold.

Since then, if anything, Israeli threats to strike Iran on its own have lost a good deal of their punch, analysts say. “It’s become irrelevant,” says Yiftah Shapir, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University. Part of the problem is that the window of opportunity for an effective Israeli air strike closed in February when Iran opened the Fordow enrichment facility deep in a mountain outside Qom, deeper than Israel’s bunker busters could reach. And politically, the drums of war were muffled when Iranians surprisingly elected as President Hassan Rouhani, who campaigned on a platform of reaching out to the West to reconcile concerns about its nuclear program. Since then, diplomacy has taken center stage.

Israel appears resigned to allowing diplomats the room to work — while both intensely lobbying Obama and other leaders to toughen the terms of any final deal, and keeping a close watch for evidence of Iranian duplicity: “The focus will be to gather intelligence in order to reveal a fraud, and not to gather intelligence for an attack,” says the senior Israeli officer.

At the same time, Israel shows signs of working to rehabilitate the military option. In “If Attacked, How Would Iran Respond?” published in the INSS journal Strategic Assessment recently, the last-serving head of Israel’s sprawling military-intelligence apparatus offers a detailed rebuttal to arguments that striking Iran’s nuclear program would provoke a thunderous response that would engulf the entire Middle East.

Major General (ret.) Amos Yadlin, who now heads the INSS think tank heavily staffed by former security officials, concedes that Iran’s Shahab-3 and missiles can reach Israel, but not very accurately. Likewise, the unguided rockets that might be launched from Lebanon by the powerful Shi‘ite organization (and Iranian client) Hizballah. Iran’s once vaunted covert capabilities, which gave it the reputation as the world’s top state sponsor of terrorism, lately appear feeble, and in terms of airpower, “the most relevant threat scenario is suicide drones being sent from Lebanon or Syria.”

From the sea, the worst Iran can manage is suicide attacks launched from midget submarines — “Iran has several such submarines” — launched from civilian vessels. “These scenarios are far from large-scale war, and their impact would be primarily psychological,” Yadlin writes, with co-author Avner Golov.

Yadlin has voiced qualified support for the interim deal, saying Israel can afford to wait the six months before exploring alternatives. But as a pilot in the Israeli air strike that destroyed a heavy-water nuclear reactor outside Baghdad in 1981, Yadlin is clear about what the alternative would be. In other words: Israel can both strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, and handle the blowback.

Israeli preparations for action against Iran have acquired an almost institutional momentum. “Many people have been working on this option for many, many years, and I don’t think they can think of anything else,” says Shapir, the senior researcher. In assembling its order of battle, Israel has steadily acquired the long-range fighter-bombers and bunker busters meant to address the threat from Tehran. “What happened to the more than 10 billion shekels [about $3 billion] that Israel spent on preparations for an attack?” analyst Shimon Shiffer asked in Yedioth Ahronoth on Nov. 21, in a piece blaming Netanyahu for allowing Iran to become a “nuclear threshold” state, one only a leadership decision away from constructing an atomic weapon.

The answer: the attack is still threatened — repeatedly by Netanyahu, who declared at the U.N. in September that, if the rest of the world is charmed by the new Iranian leadership, Israel “will stand alone.”

“This threat is the way to tell the Iranians not to cheat,” says Efraim Inbar, who heads a think tank at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, which last week published his papertitled, “A Strike on Iran: Complex, but Possible.”

“There are two issues,” Inbar says. “One is intention: Is Netanyahu really ready to do it? Probably my answer would be yes. And the second issue is international legitimacy. Now, after this agreement, ‘peace’ has arrived!”

But if Israel’s actions are constrained by the force of world opinion, it still has the power of words. Israel drove the Iranian program onto the global agenda with seemingly credible, almost constant threats of attacking Tehran — frequently reinforced by alarmist headlines inside Israel, where senior security professionals warned that Netanyahu and his then Defense Minister Ehud Barak were obsessed with launching air strikes. At one point, in 2010, the two ordered Israeli forces to prepare for an attack that has yet to occur.

“He most likely decided not to because there are great advantages to waiting until Israel comes as close as possible to the limits of its tolerance,” Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud party lawmaker who is close to Netanyahu, told the Times of Israelrecently. “Because when that point is reached, we can use all of the previous restraint as a very powerful tool for strengthening the legitimacy of our actions.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to point out that the Geneva pact will not restrain Israel, a warning that analysts say can be backed up in the real world. In Monday’s edition of Israel’s largest-selling daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, military-affairs specialist Alex Fishman wrote: “We should not be surprised if Israel not only makes threats but also demonstrates capabilities that make it clear to anyone who needed a clarification that a strike on these facilities is not just a theoretical possibility.”

Karl Vick has been TIME's Jerusalem bureau chief since 2010, covering Israel,the Palestine territories and nearby sovereignties. He worked 16 years at the Washington Post in Nairobi, Istanbul, Baghdad, Los Angeles and Rockville, MD.

Scenario: The U.S. has been by told many times by China, which already has the capability to wipe us out that we are the devil spawn and must be eliminated from the world. They prepare to fire the weapons needed to do that. What do we do? Cower under school desks (1950's school children) or really take preemptive action? Isreal was created by the United Nations ruled by the Europeon nations in 1947. The same nations that carved up Africa w/no regard for reality. O.K. If the the legimate nation of the United States has the right to pre- defend itself, why not Isreal, a country told by the rulers of Iran many times that it should not exist Cower or fight first?

Futur is bright for Iran and not so beautifull for american allies who believe in USA .Now Iran and next others willing to get atomic bomb because a no more trustable ally .What a wonderfull world in the future with many more countries, like North Korea ,playing black mail games !

The real threat to Iran's nuclear establishments and installations comes from Israel's well known ability to deliver hits where it wants and to thumb its nose at the UN . Iran came to the negotiating table just because they want to blunt and prevent any future attacks by Israeli jets. Iran is unlikely to stop U 238 enrichment or close down its research centers and even if they stop, it may mean they have managed to create a 'fear threshold' that would cut back almost all of Israel's options, hence the utter frustration displayed by the Israeli PM.

While Bibi Netenyaho froths at the mouth over attacking Iran, he is blinded to two developments over the past year that really should worry Israel.

First, earlier this year it was revealed that there were secret missile bases in Saudi Arabia targeting Israel.

Second it has been reported that the Saudis have paid for, but not yet received nuclear warheads from Pakistan.

Combine the two, and not only Israel, but the US really has reasons to worry.

Americans should recall that it was Saudi Sunni terrorists that were piloting the planes that hit the World Trade Centers and the Pentagon, NOT Iraqi, nor Afgani, nor Iranian, but Saudi.

We should never forget this, and we should do everything to prevent nuclear weapons from ending up in Saudi Sunni terrorist hands, or that mushroom cloud over New York, Washington, London, Paris, or Rome could happen, while we are all distracted over non-existent (per the CIA) Iranian WMDs.

Just something to think about, the Saudis could launch missiles at Israel, and sit there laughing as Israel retaliates against Iran. A real two-fer for the Sauds, eh?

The mainstream media likes to talk about Israeli fears. What about the fears of Iranians whose government was toppled by foreign agents. Aren't their concerns as legitimate? Shouldn't the final agreeemtn alley their fears in the same way that it would the Israeli's? Just asking. I am neither American, Israeli, Muslim or Iranian. The accommodation of all sideds worked here in South Africa 1994.

The US as the only superpower needs to conduct itself responsibly and not allow itself to be blackmailed by schizophrenic Israeli right wing. While ensuring it does not compromise Israel or any of its allies security. It is in her long term interest to ensure that the source of enmity with Iran is removed as speedily as possible. Tere are many economic and political reasons for this.

If Israel and Saudi Arabia's only concerns are purely security. This should be resolved ib six months. If it is something else they need to spell it out or forever keep their peace.

I suspect that with Iranian threat reduced, these countries fear loosing some of the US aid.

Next Israeli party elections are in 2017 - or earlier. The Israel Tal Law Committee and Kadima have to decide if entire USA Orthodoxy packs up and returns from USA to engage The Islamic Republic of Iran. The Constitution was not written 'By and For' Israel - therefore it needs further Amendment: the next attack bill will have to pass Congress or Americans just increase their daily mouthwash. The USA doesn't deserve misfit illegal right wing European imports that are contaminating the Globalisation economic school. The Jewish diaspora are already offered generous priviliges in USA above those of Native Americans - stop embarrassing and humiliating the Islamic peoples. American LAWS are formulated and governed by OUTLAWS. I am so terrified of USA.

I'm glad to read that Israel "appears resigned to allowing diplomats the room to work." If there is one thing we don't need in the middle east right now it's another violent "solution." So it was with Syria and their chemical weapons attacks on their own citizens so it is now with Iran and its nuclear ambitions.

Of course Israel is concerned. They are right in the middle of a hostile neighborhood. So, I can appreciate their skepticism. But, for the second time, we have a diplomatic opportunity. And it comes with a very short timeline.

No doubt there is going to be a lot of work ahead. Iran will absolutely need to be transparent and allow unfettered access to its nuclear facilities. But just imagine if the diplomatic effort works. Far better than the alternative,.

Israel does not trust the U.S.; this exercise is a band-aid on an amputation. The new
Amazon Kindle Thriller, The Bahrain Protocol, continues to accurately predict a
future that we are living in right now; read the snippet below of a
cornered-and desperate-Prime Minister.

DAY 1 – 1:00pm
Tel Aviv, Israel – Council of War

Slamming his fist on the table, the Prime Minister growled, “This American
President-and the Europeans-have gone soft with the idea that the new President
of Iran will negotiate their nuclear technology away; or worse, have accepted
the idea of Iran having nuclear weapons, and of somehow containing them”. “We
however do not have the advantage of being on the other side of an ocean
thousands of kilometers away.” If we do not act, Israel will be open to
annihilation within minutes, 24 hours a day.”

“Perhaps if you had not interfered in the last
American elections, we would have a stronger friend in the White House.” The
Prime Minister’s eyes reddened from this slight from a coalition minister.
“What is done is done!” he retorted. “We still have many American friends, and
the economic and military aid still comes.” “Yes, but for how long?” asked
another minister. “Even the American conservatives have warned us that there is
not an endless supply of aid.” “That is precisely why we must act now,” said
the Prime Minister fiercely. America has forgotten who her true friends are.”
“We must remind her!”

The US must never do joint military exercises with the country that sunk the USS Liberty. Such an ill advised military show would constitute an endorsement of apartheid and oppression. Israel directly interferes with the functioning of our government in Washington thru it's powerful lobbyists, undermining the White House and Congress. This is not an ally, but a very hostile client state.

Before 9/11 no one could ever imagine such a thing would happen. Now not long ago American embassy in Lyvia was attacked. No one could ever imagine that . Today while americans , europeans , israelis argue , ALL muslims ( from Indonesia to US ) SUDDENLY somehow organized and want to make a new world order - they say Halifat stretching from China to Atlantic will be all right for now. They lobby this and that , buy stupid left journalists , sell cooked up pics of suffering palestinians and kill each other by hundreds of thousands.

Who profits from Obama arguing with Netanyahu ? Only those pay the trolls on this magazine !

As a Veteran, that remembers the Jimmy Peanut Presidency, that caused hundreds of American deaths, and the American Embassy, in Iran, to be overran,.......I guess another ignorant Democrat is going to get more Americans killed.

I guess murdering four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, or causing the Death of thousands of Egyptian Christians, by installing the Terrorist Muslim Brotherhood (In which he is a Muslim Rizoli) in Egypt, is not enough,......and Hussein 'THE MUSLIM' Obama requires more killing and more Christian Blood for his Islamic Masters.

This is an example of the loyalty of the Zionist state towards the country that created it and has firmly support it in all its crimes: Do you know who Arnon Michan is? He was executive of Holliwood and who has supported big movies. He is a dual citizen, citizen of the USA and citizen of Israel. Surprise, this guy that made his fortune in the movie industry in the USA, is back in Israel where he has confessed to being a spy for Israel against the USA for a number of years while he worked in the USA. Why the USA hasn't started the the legal movements to extradite this self confessed spy? Do you know why? Because the American congress and the CIA are just clients of the Zionist state. And now, mr Obama continues the tradition of all the former presidents of rewarding this pain in the ass state with joint military exercises to protect this disloyal nation that has not hesitated to kill American marines and to spy on it. It is up to you American citizens to regain your dignity.

@zelskid1 So, does that mean Iran has the right to inspect Israeli facilities? Who is we? Israel? the United States? Contrary to your beliefs, they are two different countries, with very different interests. Are you an American or an Israeli? The US should stay out of Middle Eastern affairs, and solve it's own issues. Israeli, Persian, Arabic and other countries in that area of the world should solve their issues themselves without outside involvement.

Oh, and by the way, how is it possible for the Jewish State to be apartheid when Jews come from just about every ethnicity known to humankind, and when about 18% of its population is Arab?____________________________________________________________________________________Oh, and by the way, how is it possible for the Jewish State to be apartheid when there is an Arab Israeli citizen - Salim Joubran - serving on Israel's Supreme Court?

Oh, and by the way, how is it possible for the Jewish State to be apartheid when the chairman of emergency medicine at Hadassah Medical Center in Jerusalem is Dr Aziz Darawshe - an Israeli Arab?____________________________________________________________________________________

Oh, and by the way, please explain to us how legal, transparent lobbying is somehow "interference"? According to the Center for Responsible Politics' website opensecrets.org, (http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/mems.php?party=A&cycle=2014 to be precise), of the top interest groups contributing to members of Congress, all the Pro-Israel lobbying groups combined current rank a paltry 38th in contributions.

Less than $1.9 million in lobbying contributions hardly makes Israel hostile and undermining. And unless you are calling all the 37 top interest groups who contribute more than Pro-Israel groups "hostile clients" of Congress, then you are not only wrong, you are a bigoted hater of Israel who is dead wrong on the facts.

Less than $1.9 million in lobbying contributions hardly makes Israel's supporters in the United States hostile and/or undermining. And unless you are calling all the 37 top interest groups who contribute more than Pro-Israel groups "hostile clients" of Congress, then you are not only wrong, you are another bigoted hater of Jewish American supporters of Israel who have every First Amendment right to make transparent lobbying efforts.

To call out all lobbying for any cause is one thing. To exclusively call out the pro-Israel lobby is bald Judeophobia._______________________________________________________________________________________PS. Dirty little kernel of truth that bigots such as you hate: As opposed to the puppet Iranian moderate Rouhani, genuine Iranian moderates - those who would be shot on the spot by Ayatoallah Khameini and his Revolutionary Guards if they would go public - have no axe to grind with the Israel you hold with such contempt. Just ask any Iranian moderate, that is, if you can find one who has the courage to say so out loud.

@CharlesCundiff1 Your abject ignorance is only exceeded by your absolute stupidity. I am a Vet as well but obviously a lot smarter. The CIA overthrew the democratically elected Iranian President Mohammad Mossadegh government in 1953 and we placed the Shah on the throne who turned out to be a brutal dictator. The British were upset because the Mossadegh govt wanted to nationalize THEIR oil fields which the British ran (you know British Petroleum (BP) the ones that poisoned the Gulf of Mexico not too far back). So the Brits lied to Ike and told him they were really Communists (which they weren't) and got Ike and the CIA to overthrow it. The Iranian people had had enough and when the USA let the Shah come to our country for treatment they got mad as hell and justifiably so. Obama had nothing to do with what happened in Benghazi. Blame that coke sniffing retarded republican president Bush for getting the USA into a war in Iraq on the premise that there were Weapons of Mass Destruction there. You remember those WMD's don't you? Have you found any yet? Bush has the blood on his hands of thousands of American soldiers that never should have died. Bush, Cheney, & Rumsfeld should all be tried, convicted and hung. You are dumber than a box of hammers..then again that's an insult to a box of hammers. Pick up a book and read some history you f'n wannabe. Vet my ass.

@CharlesCundiff1 Don't blame Carter. If anything, blame the CIA and the rest of the US administration at the time that gave up its support of the Shah, let to them guys taking over the country. Carter only came later.

@em4rtz What you will die for....if you understand any history, at all.......is the fact that Iran has sworn for three plus decades to destroy the "Great Satan" America.....Israel has been our Ally for sixty years, and is only involved because she sworn to help us no matter what.........Israel is only trying to stop both American and Israeli deaths........

Iran is an Islamic Terrorist State, and they helped, with funds and illegal paperwork, the Al-Qaeda Terrorist train to destroy the Twin Towers.

It appears somewhat obvious, that you do not understand history......the First through the Ninth Crusades, starting in 1096, were caused by the Muslims (Persians) attacking and Raping and Murdering Christian Women and Children from Grease through Romania and all across the Balkans.

Islam is an ugly violent Cult, created by a Child Molester, that promotes the Rape and Murder of both Women and Children. And Islam promotes the murder of innocent people through a very recent new code called "Jihad". To keep other 'Real' Religions out of the Middle East.

Please read more history and you will find out the Jewish people were in Palestine First, by 200 years.

@CharlesCundiff1@em4rtz Most people do not realize that when the Jews migrated to Palestine' it had a very low population. As they developed the land,they attracted various Arabs and there population soared

@CharlesCundiff1@em4rtz Israel is NOT our ally. Iran is Shi'a Islam and Al-Qaeda is Sunni and they despise one another. Iran had NOTHING to do with 9/11 AT ALL! Also the Shi'a's (Persians) helped the Crusaders fight against the Sunni's and Saladin. Please stop posting. Your imbecility is redlining. and BTW it's "GREECE", not Grease. I think Olivia Newton-John and John Travolta might get upset. You have to be the most idiotic person in the entire world.

@CharlesCundiff1@em4rtz You sound a bit biased by calling Islam an "ugly cult". I know people here on base who are muslim and are great people. You know what's wrong with the World is all you religious nut jobs, and I'm not saying having a religion is bad but its you fanatics that are causing all the problems. Almost every war that's been started has been due to fanatic crazies thinking their religion is superior to the next. But in the end its just a bunch of bull**** that you spread hoping that others will fear the religion you don't believe in. I for one like how they're using diplomatic measures to settle these disputes, its the way it should be done. This is the modern age bud where wars can end with the push of a button and parts of the world become inhabitable in the aftermath. And I really don't care who was there first, people should ultimately learn to live together, after all we live in a far more civilized world than what your recalling back to in your little history lesson of nonsense here in the comment section.

@CharlesCundiff1@em4rtz "Please read more history and you will find out the Jewish people were in Palestine First, by 200 years" And who lived in America before Columbus "discovered" it? Give thanks and kill them all!

(BTW, you will notice that when confronted with truthful answers to his/her vicious propaganda, @HannoPhoenicia slithers away...just like most bigots. Moral of story - always stand up to the lies of a bigot such as this.)

@CharlesCundiff1@vetramon You are such a laughing stock! You see, mr Cundiff, when you enter in a conversation, the healthiest thing to do is to, at least, have an iota of knowledge of what you want to expose and not to shoot like a monkey with a submachine gun. Bye, bye.