Scotty G’s Box Office Predictions – Weekend of October 23rd, 2009

Halloween is around the corner because I’m predicting three films that are geared towards audiences on Halloween should be in the top five this weekend. We have three major new releases this weekend, and none of them are being well received by critics.

Saw VI is the major release this weekend. It is being released in 3,036 theatres. It has become a Halloween tradition to have a Saw movie out in theatres, but I would argue that the film series has seen better days. Take a look at the opening weekends and final grosses of the five films in the series so far:

Saw – $18.2 million opening weekend // $55.1 million final gross

Saw II – $31.7 million opening weekend // $87 million final gross

Saw III – $33.6 million opening weekend // $80.2 million final gross

Saw IV – $31.7 million opening weekend // $63.3 million final gross

Saw V – $30 million opening weekend // $56.7 million final gross

Saw V had the second lowest opening weekend in the series, as well as the second lowest final gross. Still, the films are cheaply made, and turn a profit, so they keep getting made. Critics (as expected with this series) do not like the film, and Rotten Tomatoes currently has the film listed at 44%. I’m predicting that Saw VI will open at #1 with $28 million.

The other big new release is the animated film Astro Boy. The film is based on the cartoon series, and I will admit I used to watch the show when I was younger, but it was never one that I loved or remembered fondly. I don’t know how audiences today will receive the film, but I had a similar criticism with Imagi Studios previous film Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, which opened at #1. Unfortunately, I do not think Astro Boy will achieve the success of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles. Critics have not been kind to the film with Rotten Tomatoes listing the film at 47%. Opening in 3,014 theatres, I’m predicting Astro Boy will be the #3 film, and gross $15 million.

Rounding out the major new releases is Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant. As much as I’m a John C. Reilly fan, I think he would agree that he is not a major box office attraction, so they are hoping that fans of the books will come out and support the film. Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant is being released in 2,754 theatres, but I’m surprised Universal didn’t secure more theatres, because the film could be a franchise. Critics are hoping that it does not become a franchise as Rotten Tomatoes has the film at 38%. Unfortunately, kids have too many other options with Astro Boy and Where The Wild Things Are, so Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant is going to be left behind. I’m predicting it will open at #5 and gross $11 million.

Once again, the story of the weekend will not be any of the new releases, but it will be how well Paranormal Activity does this weekend. It is getting a boost because it is adding 1,185 theatres this weekend to bring its total theatre count to 1,945. The number is still low, but the film gets many screenings per day because of the short running time (only 86 minutes). When I was coming up with my numbers, I originally had Paranormal Activity being the #1 film this weekend, and I really think that it will give Saw VI a run for its money. I’ve thought about it, but I’m now predicting it to be the #2 movie and gross $27 million, making it a very tight race for the #1 spot (only $1 million separates my predictions for Saw VI and Paranormal Activity). We’ll see what happens Sunday.

That leaves one more spot in the top five, and we have two potential films – Where The Wild Things Are and Law Abiding Citizen. For fun, I had a look at the numbers during the week for the two films plus Paranormal Activity, and look how close they all were on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Monday

1) Where The Wild Things Are – $1.974 million

2) Paranormal Activity – $1.967 million

3) Law Abiding Citizen – $1.704 million

Tuesday

1) Law Abiding Citizen – $1.801 million

2) Paranormal Activity – $1.785 million

3) Where The Wild Things Are – $1.757 million

Wednesday

1) Paranormal Activity – $1.639 million

2) Where The Wild Things Are – $1.566 million

3) Law Abiding Citizen – $1.531 million

It’s very tight between them, but I’m giving the edge to Where The Wild Things Are. I just think that younger audiences will outnumber the adults who want to see Law Abiding Citizen. I’m predicting a drop off of 55% for a gross of $14.67 million which puts Where The Wild Things Are in the #4 spot. I’m predicting a 50% drop for Law Abiding Citizen which gives it a gross of $10.5 million, and knocks it out of the top five. I will say this, I would not be the least surprised to find out that Law Abiding Citizen cracks the top five, and knocks Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant out of the top five.

Coming out in limited release this week:

Hilary Swank stars in the Amelia Earhart biopic Amelia which is directed by Mira Nair. It is being released in 818 theatres. On Rotten Tomatoes the film is only at 21%.

What has become an annual tradition lately – Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (3-D) gets released in 105 theatres. Reviews do not matter with a re-release, but in case you were wondering, Rotten Tomatoes has it listed at 97%.

Uma Thurman stars in Motherhood which is getting released in 48 theatres. The film is at 38% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Tony Jaa returns in Ong Bak 2 which is starting very small in 10 theatres and has a 52% positive rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Lars Von Trier’s latest and very controversial film Antichrist is opening in 6 theatres. The film divided audiences at Cannes, and not surprisingly, Rotten Tomatoes has the film listed at 51%.

So, to recap here are my predictions:

1) Saw VI – $28 million

2) Paranormal Activity – $27 million

3) Astro Boy – $15 million

4) Where The Wild Things Are – $14.67 million

5) Cirque Du Freak: The Vampire’s Assistant – $11 million

Check back on Sunday to see how I did.

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Published by Andy Burns

Andy Burns is the Interactive Content Editor for SiriusXM Canada, and has been the Editor-In-Chief of the pop culture website Biff Bam Pop! since its inception in 2008.
Andy's book, Wrapped In Plastic: Twin Peaks, was published in 2015 by ECW Press. His next book, on Stephen King's The Stand, will be published by Cemetery Dance in 2018.
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