The all-India rainfall deficit has narrowed down to two per cent as on Wednesday (August 25), solely attributed to the lean patch in six meteorological sub-divisions in East and Northeast India.
Of these, East Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have even chances for getting into the ‘normal' category (between +20 and -20 per cent) as defined by India Meteorological Department (IMD) based on expected rainfall trends in the short term.
East Uttar Pradesh (-28 per cent) and Assam and Meghalaya (-32 per cent) also might fancy the chances of making some delayed gains, going forward.
But it may not be that easy for Jharkhand (-45 per cent) and Gangetic West Bengal (-32 per cent).
These two Met subdivisions may find themselves carrying the legacy deficit through the end of the season, as international models have been predicting.
Orissa and West Madhya Pradesh (-18 per cent each) in Central and East-central India have barely managed to make the grade as on Wednesday.
Indicative forecasts about below normal precipitation for Central and East-central India were available even as the season began this year.
Parts of Central India have managed to hold their ends up as on date.

SURPLUS IN SOUTH
As expected, Southeast India and parts of West-central peninsula have been making significant gains, a trend that is expected to sustain during the rest of the season as well.
Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh,
Telengana and Marathwada are all in the positive territory with South Interior Karnataka just about making the grade.
To the north, Saurashtra and Kutch, West Rajasthan and Jammu and Kashmir have been the major beneficiaries of the rainfall bounty inspired in part by friendly La Nina conditions in the East Equatorial Pacific.
The western and northwestern regions are expected to witness continued wet weather even in September when the monsoon normally starts withdrawing from the region.
Meanwhile on Thursday, the Chennai Met Office said that the monsoon has been vigorous over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana and active over Rayalaseema and Karnataka during the 24 hours ending in the morning.

WIDESPREAD RAIN
Rainfall occurred at most places over Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka and at many places over South Interior Karnataka during this period.
Only isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu.
Elsewhere, widespread rainfall has been reported from Southwest Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarkhand, Madhya Pradesh and the West Coast, an update from the IMD said.
It was fairly widespread over the Northeastern States and the remaining parts of peninsular India except Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
A warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Isolated heavy rainfall has been forecast over Assam, Meghalaya, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka, South Gujarat, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during this period.
Meanwhile, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees the possibility of a low-pressure area spinning up over the Head Bay of Bengal by this weekend.
If this were to happen, this would be the first one to form over this ‘sweet spot,' the time lag to which is being blamed for the erratic monsoon behaviour in the East and Northeast, and even in the Northwest in the initial stages.

Based on a detailed analysis of weather data of the last five years in Leh, scientists have attributed the recent cloudburst in the region to prolonged winters which may be due to climate change.

“After going through the sequence of events of the weather that led to the cloudburst on August 6, it has been reinforced that the catastrophe was due to prolonged winters being witnessed in the region,” a source at the Leh-based Defence Institute for High Altitude Research (DIHAR) told PTI.

The analysis by the research institute under the Defence Ministry was done to look into the reasons that triggered the cloudburst in the Leh region on Ladakh, which is usually considered unnatural because it is a rain shadow area.

On condition of anonymity, the source said at a recent meeting on “Evaluation of climate change in Ladakh sector and causes of Cloudburst in Leh,” the scientists at DIHAR had analysed the weather data of the last five years in terms of monthly temperature, rainfall, humidity and snowfall.

The study indicated that increased temperature and hot summers in the plains lead to increased evaporation and subsequent cloud formation in the hills. “This in turn, led to increased duration of snowfall in Ladakh when compared to previous years.

“The winters in Ladakh were found to be prolonged,” the experts concluded though they felt the phenomenon could not be directly associated with climate change given the short range of data.

The region was witnessing unusual phenomenon of bright sunshine in June and July causing melting of snow and high relative humidity (72 per cent) as compared to previous years (50 per cent), the source said. Tracing the change in weather on the basis of the data available, the source pointed out “since snow absorbed the latent heat also, the monthly maximum and minimum temperature remained low and did not shoot up as compared to previous years (2006).

“The low temperature and high relative humidity lead to formation of dense low clouds in the valley. Since the vapour content in the clouds were high and on trying to cross the glaciers, the vapours further condensed.

“The clouds could not retain the water droplets that lead to the cloudburst. Since the rainfall was absent on August 3, 4 and 5 and was negligible on August 7, 8, and 9, the theory of occurrence of a cloudburst in Leh due to prolonged winters may be reinforced,” the meeting said on the sequence of event.

The cloudburst, which led to flash floods and mudslides, claimed about 180 lives and injured about 400 people besides causing widespread damage to public and private property.

The Defence establishment has also initiated research towards preventing soil erosion in case of heavy rains in the area in future in view of climate change.