New poll has Obama in the lead in key swing states

Wednesday

Aug 1, 2012 at 12:01 AMAug 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

President Barack Obama is still winning Ohio and two other key states considered essential to both candidates' chances for the White House. He tops Mitt Romney by 50 percent to 44 percent in the Buckeye State and leads by 6 points in Florida and 11 in Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University's monthly swing state poll.

Darrel Rowland, The Columbus Dispatch

President Barack Obama is still winning Ohio and two other key states considered essential to both candidates’ chances for the White House.

He tops Mitt Romney by 50 percent to 44 percent in the Buckeye State and leads by 6 points in Florida and 11 in Pennsylvania in Quinnipiac University’s monthly swing state poll.

“If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, in a release.

“The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally. Part of the reason may be that the unemployment rate in Ohio is well below the national average. In Florida it has been dropping over the past year, while nationally that has not been the case.”

Obama’s lead in Ohio is fueled by a huge gender gap; Women support the president by 21 points, 58 percent to 37 percent, while men line up behind Romney by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent.

The key group of independent voters favors Obama by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.

Obama led in all three states (including Ohio by 9 points) in Quinnipiac’s swing state poll in late June. However, that poll included all registered voters; this month’s is the first among only likely voters.

In U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown is besting GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel by 51 percent to 39 percent. That includes a lead of 49 percent to 38 percent among independents.

For the first time in a Quinnipiac Poll, Ohio voters approve of the performance of Gov. John Kasich, 47 percent to 38 percent.

“This is our first likely voter survey of Gov. John Kasich, so we can’t compare it to earlier surveys of registered voters,” Brown said. “But the improvement in his approval rating is so big that it must be at least in part because of the improving economy in the state.”

A key to the Obama lead lies in the two candidates’ comparative favorability rating. Ohioans give Obama a net of plus 6, 51 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable. But Romney stands at minus 3, 40 percent favorable to 43 percent unfavorable.

Not surprisingly, Ohio voters say the economy is by far the most important issue in the election. That issue battleground is virtually a wash at this point: 46 percent say Obama would do a better job with the economy, 45 percent say Romney.

Interestingly, more Ohio voters say the financial policies of both candidates would hurt, rather than help, them. Obama’s policies would hurt instead of help 38 percent to 26 percent. But Buckeye voters say the same thing about Romney’s financial plans, by an essentially identical 37 percent to 26 percent.

On the contentious issue of handling health care, Ohio voters side with Obama, 48 percent to 42 percent.

Voters in all three states line up solidly against Romney’s position of releasing only a couple of years’ worth of federal income tax returns. Fewer than one in five voters back the stance of the former Massachusetts governor.

Meanwhile, around 60 percent of the voters in all three states favor Obama’s plan to raise income taxes on households making $250,000 or more.

The Connecticut university’s telephone poll (which includes cell phones) of 1,193 likely Ohio voters from July 24 through Monday has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. The poll was conducted in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times.

drowland@dispatch.com

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