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Primary Calendar Stirs Republican Anxiety

WASHINGTON — Even as the Republican presidential contenders zigzag through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, an uncertain and potentially unwieldy primary schedule in subsequent states is alarming party leaders, who fear that the voting could start earlier, last longer and complicate efforts to confront President Obama next year.

The 2012 presidential race is the first to fall under new rules from the Republican National Committee, which had intended the contests to start in February, a month later than in 2008. But at least a half dozen states are threatening to defy the rules and move up their primaries.

The result is that the first ballots are once again likely to be cast in January as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina move up the dates of their contests to protect their franchises as the early voting states.

At the same time, the rush toward the front of the calendar by Florida, Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia and Missouri is accompanied by another trend: several states are pushing back their presidential primaries — or canceling them entirely — because of tight state budgets.

The outcome is a sharply scaled-back set of contests in the weeks after the initial flurry — with Super Tuesday in particular diminished in importance — followed by a stretch of primaries lasting until summer.

The California presidential primary, which in 2008 took place in February, is most likely to be held in June, the same day as the statewide primary, to save the state $100 million. New York, which also held its presidential primary in February last time, has pushed back its date to April 24. And the state of Washington will not hold its presidential primary to save $10 million.

“If there was ever a calendar that was designed for the nominating battle to go the distance, this is it,” said John Weaver, the chief strategist for the campaign of Jon M. Huntsman Jr., a former governor of Utah. “It could easily go into April and May.”

The unsettled calendar has created anxiety and opportunity for Republican candidates.

If Gov. Rick Perry of Texas enters the race, as his advisers believe he will in the next few weeks, he could face a hospitable run of primaries. The Texas primary on March 6, which comes with a large trove of delegates, will be followed by several other contests across the South.

Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, has been working to build a muscular political organization to help fortify him through a drawn-out nominating fight. His associates have urged Utah, which he won in 2008, to move up its primary so a clutch of Western states could provide friendly terrain. Republicans in Idaho voted last week to hold caucuses on March 6.

A game of leapfrog takes place every presidential election cycle, with states trying to break the monopoly that Iowa and New Hampshire have held for decades by holding the first caucus and first primary. Yet every effort has produced the same result: Iowa and New Hampshire simply move up their contests.

“At this point, there are a few more states in play than there were four years ago,” said William M. Gardner, New Hampshire’s secretary of state. “New Hampshire will be the first. I just don’t know when it will be.”

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The catalyst in the intense jockeying among states is Florida. Republican leaders want the state to hold a prominent spot in the early phase of the nominating process. The Legislature formed a committee to select a primary date, which is likely to be in early March, but could move to February or late January if other states advance their contests.

The ambitions of Florida are being carefully watched by Republican leaders in other states that have their own aspirations to play a key role in helping to select the party’s nominee.

“We can’t let Florida establish an early beachhead in the process,” said Saul Anuzis, a member of the Republican National Committee who is from Michigan. “There’s been this game of chicken between Florida and Michigan, saying if you guys go early, we’re going to go early.”

For all of the precision that presidential campaigns require, the process of selecting a nominee is dictated by a haphazard set of rules that vary by state. Some states conduct closed primaries (registered Republicans only), and others have open primaries (independents and Democrats can vote, too).

In Arizona, the primary is scheduled by the governor, and Gov. Jan Brewer, a Republican, is considering moving the date to mid-February to coincide with the state’s centennial celebration. In Georgia, the primary is the purview of the secretary of state, Brian Kemp, who is Republican.

“It’s kind of like poker, really,” Mr. Kemp said in an interview. “You’re gambling if you go early. If you get penalized, is it worth it?”

Under Republican Party rules, states are stripped of half their delegates to the nominating convention if they jump ahead of the proposed guidelines, while states that adhere to them get additional delegates.

Josh Putnam, an assistant professor at Davidson College who studies presidential primaries and writes the blog FrontloadingHQ, said the biggest change to the calendar was the shrinking of Super Tuesday — from 24 states last time to about 10 next year — and the lengthening of the nominating season.

“Four years ago, there was a mad rush to the first Tuesday in February,” Mr. Putnam said. “This time, a sizable chunk of states are deciding to move back.”

Another dynamic in the calendar fight has made this round of behind-the-scenes competition among states even more chaotic.

Republicans have long operated under a winner-takes-all system, which has allowed the party to wrap up its nominating fight more swiftly than Democrats, who allow states to award delegates proportional to the share of votes received by the candidates. This time, most Republican delegates will be awarded proportionally for all primaries and caucuses taking place before April 1, which means finishing second can be nearly as fruitful as winning. If the campaign narrows to a head-to-head match between two candidates next year, it has the potential to become a Republican version of the extended 2008 Democratic delegate fight between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton that was not resolved until all states had voted.

Even as Republican candidates are criticizing Mr. Obama’s policies, campaign strategists say they are studying his campaign playbook, taking particular interest in how his advisers mastered the intricate rules of awarding delegates from primaries and caucuses, which ultimately delivered him the nomination.

Kitty Bennett contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on July 26, 2011, on page A13 of the New York edition with the headline: Primary Calendar Stirs Republican Anxiety. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe