Thursday, June 3, 2010

Rumors from Iran Central bank said that the management had decided to diminish EURO reserves to 20-25 percent from 50 percent and then convert the euro currency into the Dollars and Gold. It is also heard in the market that the sales of the first stage is begin and its target seems to be 15 billion was expected to be finish off till the end of September. EUR 45 billion is expected amount for the whole sales. Iran is expected to reduce its cost of oil sales in euro. While buying seems to be low and USD stays tight against all the major currencies of the Forex online trading market. Prime Minsiter of Japan has announced its resignation leads to the Japanese currency Yen in the soft order in the market. This announcement of resignation is just come before week and now the currenct finance minster of Japan is the successor as the market expects for the chair of Prime Minsiter.

According to the report presented by the Challenger, Gray the US planned to dropped layoff early makes a fall of 65 percent in the month of May where as eurozone PPI rises to 0.9 percent mom. Aussie GDP reaches to a high of 0.5 percent qoq and 2.7 percent yoy in the first quarter of this year that is 2010. While Swiss retail sales rises to 1.3 percent yoy in the month of April. Monetary base roses to 3.7 percent yoy in the end of the may month. Although the Japan currency is not going as good because of the political uncertainity where as apart from this the US currency is gaining as the demand of risky assets rose.

We have seen that the currency pair USD/JPY reaches to the high level of 92.36 first time after the eigteenth of may where as the currency pair EUR/JPY reaches to 113 level as anticipated in the market after the recovery of the US labor market. In the market rumuors are going on about the next leader of Japan that was expected to the current finance minster will take the vacant position of the Prime Minster of Japan that ultimately leads the Yen currency to lag behind in the market from some past days. Th finance minister of Jpana suggested the BOJ to do not look steady at the market try to fight against the deflation to stop it. While rise is seen in the Asia Pacific of 2.4 percent and the Nikkie embedded the goodness in the stocks by rising 2.46 percent more. The stocks seems to be rebound and also triggers the risk appetite because of the japanese investors amendment foriegn bond net purchases to the most expected till the month of September.

There was a advancement shown in the currency pair of AUD/USD that seems to be rises to 0.5 percent and the currency pair NZS/USD rises to 0.4 percent in the consecutive second day at the Forex market. This is all due to the strong economic data that comes from US while the Aussie demands for the risk appetite. Where as the trade balance of the Australian trade adds the surplus in the month of April as there was a high jump shown in the iron ore exports that is of 25 percent more from the past, coal shipments rises to 40 percent more where as the exports also rises to 11 percent as comapred to the April month. RBA has forecasted that the boom of Asia srocks may lag the Australias's trade in the coming time.

The currency pair EUR/USD seems to be in good path as it seems to be rises from 1.2111 to 1.2281 on first june. It gets the support from the stocks rise in the starting of this month. While as about the US economy it was predicted yesterday that the US comapnies are ready to launch 70,000 jobs as the intial jobless came fells to 455,000 from the previous 460,000. In this week there was a meet fixed between the Finance minsters with central bankers of G20 in Bussan that was in South Korea which decides about the current situation of EURO debt crisis. The currencty finance minster of Japan mentioned in his one of the interview that the european debt crisis leads an adverse effect on the Global economic growth of the country merely because of the leading trading countries that is China, india and Brazil are still ready to fight against the deflation as they are robust enough.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

In US session as the risk appetite is lifted up by the strong economic data of US that makes the USD to get reversed earlier in the Forex online trading market. It is seen in the market that the manufacturing index of ISM is dropped to 59.7 point from the high level of 60.4 in the month of May. but, it can be said that it seems to be better than the expected rate of the market. Also it gets the achievement of the expansion reading steadiness from the ten consecutive months. since May 2004 it was noticed that the employment component details are also solid and now the details reaches to the high level of 59.8 which provides a ray of hope to the non-farm payroll reading. There was a solid increment is noticed in the exports that is of 62 level, it is the highest level seen after December 1988.

There was a rebound is seen in the DOW and crude oil after the mid-day that is the DOW drops-down to 10038 level where as the crude oil seems to fall to the 71.64 level. USD index got the resistance at the level of 87.46 where as it rebounds after reaching the low of 86.5. Sterling was the biggest hit of Yesterday as it reaches to the highest level because of the fall of the Asian AIG Prudential's takeover. This news not only boosted the Sterling but it also favors the UK stocks as the rise is also seen in the stocks. The UK rise also supports the pound. As we have noticed from the past 16 years PMI manufacturing data remains unchanged from the high level of 58. There was a rise in home prices of 8.5 percent is shown in this year earlier and it is also said by the experts of the market that it is the first time from the past September 2007 a fastest pace is seen in the home prices.

EURO gets a hit in early yesterday as the ECB presents its financial report which acknowledges that the banks are already made a significant improvements as per their financial condition. But still there are 2 important factors that may hurts the financial stability of the market. The first factor is the intensification of public finances and second is the possibility of the obstinate between the public finances and financial sector. These two factors is expected to cause a disorder in the financial situation of the market. Unemployment rate of euro zone countries seems to rise up by 12 year high where as Germany unemployment falls to 7.7 percent in the month of May. While there is a rebound shown by the euro after getting support from the stocks.

Bank of Canada rises the rate yesterday from 25 bps to 0.5 percent as it was the first G7 Central bank that have tighten their policies after the recession period. As this was expected by the market earlier times. The euro zone debt crisis leads to the uncertainty in the market but we have to remain cautious about the Global economic market after the rate hike of 0.5 percent. In early times the RBA makes the decision to hold its rate hike because of the continuous fall of euro currency due to the sovereign debt crisis. RBA only mentioned that the current monetary policies are decorous can bring rate hikes to an average situation. RBA has taken a "pause" from the May month but at that time it was predicted that it will give some good results for June hike but after observing the current situation the RBA again takes a decision for a pause in rate hike.

Dollar index sharp rebound of yesterday suggested that the combinations are still in the progress to reach a high of 87.46. The investors are still expecting the resistance hold at the level 87.46 and expected to again reach the high of 89.62 that was the high of 2009 year. GBP/CAD also rebounds and reaches the level of 1.4831 is now resuming. This rise is seen in the currency pair due to the strength gained by the Canadian Dollar and the support given to the pound from the stocks. These all things supported the currency pairs to rebound from their lows and reaches to the high position in the Forex market.

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ABOUT AUTHOR

I am pallavi..... forex trader and analyst. The only intension to create this blog is to spread my experiences of forex trading.
I have done masters in economics and have applied for Phd. in financial planning. My blog is managed by many of my friends like Somya gabriel, Cozy, Jenny, Fedd, Pinalli, Monika, Melvin, Sandra, Monali.
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