Has Obama swept Romney away?

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It is just about the right time for irresponsibly early predictions, so here is mine:

If the Democrats can maintain the enthusiasm for three days that we have seen thus far in their convention, Mitt Romney will have a serious problem in attaining the presidency. He will need at least three things:

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1. A superlative performance in all three of his debates with Barack Obama in October.

2. An extraordinary get-out-the-vote effort on Election Day.

3. An effective voter suppression campaign to keep minorities and young people from casting their ballots.

Am I making too much of the spirit generated by the speeches at the Democratic convention? Have I been swept away?

I don’t think so, but if I have been swept away, voters have been, too.

I am not talking about undecided voters. There are no undecided voters. Forget about what the pollsters claim. Think about it: Who could still be truly undecided between the two candidates in this election? And what planet are they registered on?

I am not saying there are no undecided people. There are. But they are not going to vote. They are going to do what they always do: Sit on their behinds on Election Day and then complain for the next four years.

This election is about base voters. Bringing them back to the party if they have drifted away into indifference, getting them fired up, getting them working to bring out the vote and getting them voting.

There have been many stories about how a lot of people who were enthusiastic about the inspirational, almost messianic, campaign of Obama in 2008 have grown disappointed and disaffected today.

I think those stories are true. We have not reached the Promised Land. It took Moses 40 years of wandering just to catch a glimpse of it, and Obama has not brought us there in three and a half.

His biggest problem is not bad economic numbers. I believe bad economic numbers — barring the collapse of Europe or some other calamity before Election Day — have been “baked into the cake.” Voters have already come to grips with the fact that unemployment will not be low by Nov. 6 and are looking for a candidate to trust, not a candidate to produce a magic job-creating wand.

Obama’s biggest problem has been a genuine falloff in enthusiasm for him, his rhetoric and his promises. You get one chance to make a first impression. Has Obama blown that chance?