One thing not mentioned above from you guys is that fouls do cap out. In the PPL bot NC and I have had teams with high foul rates all four seasons. Between a certain range fouls come very close to RL, but when you draft too few you see most of your guys pulled somewhere in the range of .08 per minute no matter how few you draft. And when you draft a ton of fouls you usually cap out around .10 per minute. Just look at my current PPL squad for evidence of this, 1918 pf's in RL, just over 1,600 with 6 games to go in the sim.

Anyone else note the 0.9 bias that admin recently put on the advance ast% to cap the Bump. Ash & I were #1 & #2 in assist in ODL XLIV @ 33-34apg. Personally I loaded the necessary advance estimators to get 36-37apg. Don't know what ash was expecting, but his team had closer to 38-39 apg loaded. Where do you think the 10% went? Was it magic...

The 'standardization' of league ast% to NBA norm is not a bad thing. Personally I was jacking the crap out of ast% so I could use slightly lower efg% players. The unfortunate aspect of this 'standardization is now I'll have to go back to using the SOS.

Posted by smokey57 on 11/19/2013 12:43:00 PM (view original):Anyone else note the 0.9 bias that admin recently put on the advance ast% to cap the Bump. Ash & I were #1 & #2 in assist in ODL XLIV @ 33-34apg. Personally I loaded the necessary advance estimators to get 36-37apg. Don't know what ash was expecting, but his team had closer to 38-39 apg loaded. Where do you think the 10% went? Was it magic...

There are four reasons why this happened... but I don't have time to go into all of them. I'm 99.99999% sure admin has changed nothing since they redid the 01-02 rosters or whatever season it was that had some buggy players.

If admin hasn't touched anything, that only indicates that automated aspects of the system are are being employed. In short, lies wrapped in a thin layer of truth. The data never lies..period. The 'forced fit' & 'correction' are quite real, and very easy to see. btw - knowledge of the 'correction' can be used to gain a certain amount advantage.

The basic system works this way, 'optima' (advance estimators) modified by 'bias', with a random aspect. The random aspect is in the individual matchup, player A has 6 chances, player B has 4 chances and the vertual wheel gets a spin. The discussion on the matter of sample size is a theoretical red herring, the system is designed to approach 'optima' in 82 games. This is not theoretical population statistcs, it a contrived mechanism.

in the words of the great George Bailey (and in the spirit of the coming season): "either I'm crazy or you are..."

dude you are at it again - there's an FAQ if you need a primer - what you are doing here is backwards engineering your theory of how the sim works using a paucity of sampling (in terms of both size and controls). and it's kind of annoying

first, I don't understand your level of certainty when debating someone who (redacted for obvious reasons) and again there's an FAQ (which clearly (sort of) lays out how the engine works)

second, you are positing a level of engagement and activity on behalf of the admin team that is ludicrous given every iota of the facts on the ground for the last five years. Is it really your contention (or nate's) that they snuck in in the middle of the night to make small unannounced tweaks to the engine that are largely cosmetic? really? they barely have time to respond to users - they don't, as we know, really respond to users. But a simple in season variation in one stat (out put) category is telling? hell do it with controls over the course of 500 seasons and you might have something (make sure all the factors are the same in each and every season, same tempos, same settings, same opponents etc). - instead what you have is what we already know, random happens

and that's it - there are a bunch of moderating factors (the stats we draft) stuffed into each game, mix in the random (a necessity to some debatable extent) and you get all sorts of weirdness - It's like you're going crazy staring at a tv screen full of static trying to find a pattern

finally, you guys are thinking about it all wrong. Most of the stat columns in the box score are meaningless 'after the fact' outputs and don't deal with the real meat and potatoes of the engine - it doesn't matter how many assists you wind up logging in a game - the system is using advanced stats that impact the make-miss likelihood. If a shot is made only then does the engine determine if it was assisted and assigns the assist to a particular player only after that decision. The question you should be asking is 'does having all this as% on the court improve my fg%?' And if so then 'at what rate and at what levels do I see improvements? the rest is noise...

Posted by smokey57 on 11/20/2013 4:07:00 PM (view original):Felon your simply wrong. You can reliterate a milion times ...you'll still be wrong.

I'm sorry, smokey, but in this case, I think the wrong one is you. Without peering into the sim's actual code, all we have to go on is experience. What you have is a theory. The evidence you bring forth to support your theory can be explained by 3 or 4 other factors. Owners far more experienced than you (felon & nc, for example) know what they're talking about here. What you're doing is good, but it's like you're looking for numbers that support your hypothesis without taking into account all of the variables.