Is the Southeast the New Middle East?

While nowhere near as troubled and tangled as the Middle East, Southeast Asia could become America’s next major focus, said Asian diplomats gathered for the Asean summit on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali.

The endless meetings among the diplomats of the ten-member nations, defining little known treaties and organizations such as the “Asean Institute for Peace and Reconciliation” and the “Treaty of Amity and Cooperation”, hardly seem like game changers in the cut-throat arena of international politics. However the buzz in Bali is that Asean – long considered a diplomatic backwater – all of a sudden is getting more global geopolitical attention than it has in decades.

U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to arrive on Thursday and become the first ever U.S. president to attend an East Asia Summit. He and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will be winding up a tour of the region, where they unveiled plans to start a new military base in nearby Australia, tighten trade ties with Asean members, renew the U.S.’s military relationships with the Philippines and put its weight behind the region’s worries that China is getting too pushy in its claims on areas of the South China Sea.

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In its more than 40 years’ of existence, Asean has been considered mostly a talk shop. Now, the U.S. and others are interested in using it as a tool to promote stability in the region.

“It is the second great game after the Middle East that is taking place here,” said Kimihiro Ishikane, deputy director general of Asia and Oceanian affairs bureau of Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who is taking part in the different discussions in Bali. “It is not a game with arms or battles. It is a great game of institution building.”

Though few want to mention the motivation for the change in front of the media, off camera most agree it has to do with the 800-pound panda in the room: China.

Asean has benefited greatly from the success of its giant neighbor to the north. China buys its commodities and goods and has become an important source of investment and finance for the region. Still a growing number of countries are concerned about China’s growing shadow. The country, some diplomats worry, sometimes shows signs that it wants to change its dominant economic position into political influence in Southeast Asia.

These worries have forced Asean members to become more serious about working together and have also made the group of diverse countries more anxious to keep the U.S. involved in the region, diplomats said. Asean’s increased need for superpower friends has coincided with America’s decision to untangle itself from some of its commitments in the war on terror, including Afghanistan and Iraq, and turn its focus to the Asia Pacific.

“Asean will be the center of new regional (dynamics), which will be built in a way to convince China that there is no way out,” said Ernie Bower, senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They (China) can grow like crazy and become a real global power but they have to play by the rules.”

Friendly but firm interactions with China over issues in Southeast Asia such as its South China Sea claims is the best way for the U.S. to signal how it hopes to coexist with the country, diplomats said.

“Southeast Asia is non-threatening to anybody,” said Mr. Bower. “It is the natural strategic playing field of great powers.”

About Southeast Asia Real Time

Indonesia Real Time provides analysis and insight into the region, which includes Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Brunei. Contact the editors at SEAsia@wsj.com.

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