Talking Texans with Football Outsiders; Part 1 about Dunta Robinson

If you like smart, data-driven, assumption-challenging NFL writing, you likely already have Football Outsiders bookmarked. It is Christmas in July because FO just released the pdf version of their most excellent 2009 Football Outsiders Almanac, the successor to the Pro Football Prospectus.

Bill Barnwell, the managing editor of FO, and I had an interesting conversation about the Houston Texans chapter, and this week I will be sharing it on the blog. It made me think some, and I hope it does the same for you. The Q&A was long enough that Bill refers to it as the “free addendum to the Texans chapter.” I decided to break it up into different blog posts for readability and more directed conversation in the comments. (Althought I think at one point, I will put together a place holder post that contains the entire chat in one place for future reference).

Football Outsiders Part 1: Dunta Robinson and the Texans secondary.

Stephanie Stradley: “Texans CB Dunta Robinson is refusing to sign his franchise tender and may possibly sit out this offseason. Do the numbers suggest any thoughts on his value, and should the Texans be nervous based on the performance of the rest of their secondary?”

That might be a little extreme, but it’s the truth. Teams were successful (picking up 40% of the needed yardage to move the chains on first down, 60% on second down, or 100% on third or fourth down) throwing the ball at him on 56% of their attempts. That placed Robinson 69th amongst corners. He allowed 8.9 yards per attempt — that’s 78th. He only broke up six of the 51 passes thrown at him.

Is he that bad? Probably not. Robinson probably drew the toughest receivers when he was on the field. That being said … lots of other corners also have to draw the toughest receivers when they’re on the field, and virtually all of them did better than Robinson.

The scary thing for the Texans is that they might actually need him. Jacques Reeves actually held up pretty well — teams were only successful 46 percent of the time against him, placing him 28th in the league — but they loved targeting him. Reeves was targeted with 23.3% of the passes thrown against the Texans; after adjusting for the number of games each corner played, that’s the seventh-highest total in football. That makes him a target.

Last year, we were singing the praises of Fred Bennett, and he went and promptly had an awful sophomore slump. After being in the top five in both categories in 2007, his success rate fell to 58th and his yards per attempt to 52nd. Yuck. If Robinson does leave, it’ll be on Bennett to play more like the 2007 edition than the 2008 one.”

• • •

My Thoughts.

Thanks, Bill…I think. I must warn you that a number of these posts this week will be of the “thanks, Bill…I think” variety because the Football Outsiders Almanac isn’t all shiny happy optimistic Texans talk of a variety that ignores the significant troubles on defense and the Texans turnover issues.

Typically, in the past, the Texans CBs play left and right corners, and do not match up on best receivers. So Robinson’s numbers are likely not attributable to matchups.

That Jacques Reeves was targeted by other teams isn’t a surprise either, though the extent relative to the rest of the league is. I remember one game where I sat in the end zone, and the group of us sitting together played the “Where’s Reeves” game. You looked to see where he was lined up, and then figured out that the guy who went to that side of the field was going to get the ball.

This year’s Houston Texans have a lot of uncertainty in the secondary, but maybe that is not all bad given how bad they have played as a unit. Jon Hoke, the secondary coach had been with the franchise since the beginning and was let go in the offseason, and is now with the Chicago Bears. Hoke had never coached NFL football prior to his time with the Texans.

Hoke was replaced by David Gibbs, his online Texans bio is here. I find this part of the bio semi-amusing in a self delusional way: Gibbs “inherits a slew of talent in the Texans’ secondary that includes cornerback Dunta Robinson, who holds the franchise record for career interceptions.” Translated: “We drafted a lot of cornerbacks because we are in the same division as the Colts and don’t know if any of them can really play. Robinson has the record because the Texans have been around since 2002, and he has been on the field the longest of any Texan CB. But we have to say something nice.”).

With changes to the defensive coordinator, defensive line coach and defensive secondary coach, it is hard to figure out whether past performance predicts future performance. How much of what we were seeing on the field was talent or was coaching? If the Texans can get more pressure up front, does this mean that the secondary will play better?

“I noted in my game breakdowns that there were numerous instances where the Texans quarterbacks were taking too many unnecessary chances on plays. My scouting eye said it seemed they were doing this because they might not have trusted the defense to hold up its part of the bargain.”

Go read that and report back. Also leave some thoughtful comments on his blog post for other fans to see because that is a friendly, helpful thing to do.

So, if you are freaking out due to lack of football, I’ve given you two different places to go get your football fix on. Pro Football Almanac and Scientific Football are dense enough to get you to training camp. If you love reading intelligent football talk by people who love football, well then go read them.

Dunta was one of my favorite players, but now he is no longer good for this team. His loyalty lies in his ego & wallet instead of his teammates that look(ed) up to him. Argue the $$ & contracts all you want, but it is called a ‘team sport’ for a reason. He is no longer a team player just another superstar wannabe like T.O. & the rest. Go play for the Lions. We don’t need any distractions this season & right now that is all Robinson is. If he is a hold out or a no-show then have the Texans equipment manager help him pack. Show up, shut up or just leave.

For the last few years I’ve always felt our defense was “broke.” While many seemed to lay blame on either the coaching or the players, I was hard pressed to choose which was the real culprit; lack of talent or our defensive scheme? In actuality, and like most things in life, it was probably not so cut and tried but rather a combination of the two. Given our widespread defensive coaching changes and our unquestionable upgrade in talent, I see no reason not to be optimistic about the Texans playing better defensive football this year. Whether the improvement equates to playoff caliber defensive football, we shall see. But since we already play playoff caliber offense, IF the defense makes anywhere near such a large improvement, the fall and winter will be very exciting around these parts.

Keep up the good work.

[Thank you. I can tell you that the gossip from the beginning of the time that Richard Smith was DC of the team is that the players did not like his coaching. You would see a few public grumblings over the last couple of years, but the Texans like to keep their dirty laundry in-house. My biggest problem with the defense since the switch to the 4-3 in 2006 is that: 1. They didn’t seem to have a philosophy or much of a direction; 2. They often looked confused, like they didn’t know where they were supposed to be on the field. For fans, it is very striking to see the good coaching and scheme on the offense and the improvement on that side of the ball, and the lack of improvement on the defense. There is a belief by the Texans that Frank Bush (combined with the experienced hires of quality defensive assistant coaches) along with the further development and acquisition of young player will result in better results. We’ll see. -Steph]

i have alot of concerns about the secondary as we all do but i really believe our front 7 will effect those guys performance as much as anything. If qb’s dont have 5 or more seconds to chill out in the pockets and pick there favorite target maybe the secondary wont look as ragid. Bennet slumped last year as was stated but we have heard good things in the ota’s about him and the rookie out of New Mexico. Granted ota’s mean nothing but i trust what the coach’s are saying they see. Also i think Reeves was thrown under the bus way to many times last season he played well in spots and looked pretty good as the year ended… hopefully we can have the vets Reeves and Dunta at the corner along with another vet Wilson at the FS spot and the younger guys can be ready to back them up.

[Thanks. It’s the offseason when teams are built, and the offseason when diehards need their fix the most so I try to accommodate. Offseason = key planning; inseason = (offseason planning + luck) + adjustments. The decisions made in the offseason are so important to what happens this fall–so it is best to follow it closely now, and then when the season starts, there are few surprises–plans either work or don’t; luck either shines or doesn’t; teams deal with set backs or don’t. -Steph]

I think the problems with the Texans defense in the past has always been technique and scheme. Hopefully, and I do believe it all will be corrected and good things will happen with Bush as the DC. As far as Dunta is concerned, enough is enough. You have made your point of your unhappiness as being the franchise designee. Now what is the point, is it not all about the money? The $9+M a year is more than would have been made with a LT contract. Now the future should be about the team for this season. Play well a FULL season, then get paid. I am one of your biggest fans, but be in camp or be gone. It is called tough love and this is football style!!

Following on Fred’s comment, and as a new Texans fan full of bravado and unencumbered by past failures, I’m telling everyone that the Texans will be a very scary team if their defense improves to merely average. I’m sure it won’t be easy to go from a crappy defense to an average one, but we saw what happened when the Colts’ added an average defense to an already prolific offense.

What is Dunta smoking? He is being offered a 1 year top 5 salary less than 12 months removed from knee surgery. All he has to do is prove he is half as good as he thinks he is and he will be signed to a 4-6 year deal next year. I really hope that Dunta knows how serious a knee injury is to a CB and is trying to secure his finances in case he has a career ending injury this year. Surely he isn’t dumb enough to think he is a top 5 cornerback. DUNTA: There are 30 CBs in the NFL who are just as fast, just as hard hitting and just as smart as you. Anyone of them could shut down any WR or intercept any QB on a given day. You become top 5 when you dominate everyday rain or shine, and don’t miss entire seasons. Life not fair? tell it to Ki-Jana Carter or Robert Edwards. Please Kubiak, as a fellow SPX and Aggie alumni, do not tie up long term salary cap on this guy.

All of the Dunta bashers must don’t watch the games. I understand what the numbers say, however, in the NFL you also have to measured by your heart. This defense actually started to come around only after Dunta made it back last year. Have we forgotten the secondary tandem of Bennett and Reeves getting lit up the first 6 games of the year. Also no other corner in the league plays the run as well as Dunta. It’s real easy for us to get upset with him, but he is protecting his intrest and not your feelings. The NFL is a business an if a team decides to cut you then you have no recourse. He has proven himself the most consitent Texan prior to his horrific injury. Also he hasn’t even done anything egrigos to this point he skipped voluntary workouts (I would as well to protect againts further injuries). I say judge his play this year if he is up to par as he was prior to his injury then pay the man. If he is not then pay him second rate money. For all of the bashers, take it easy the man just is trying to secure his future, the average NFL Career is something like 4 or 5 years.

[There’s no need for anyone to hate. Texans and DR need to agree on price. Value for DR is hard to figure out. Hard to figure out if there is a deal that makes sense for both the Texans and DR–that’s what both sides have publicly said they are working toward. If it happens cool, if it doesn’t happen, well then good luck to all involved. Heart matters, but tell that to your salary cap–I’m guessing part of the difference in the early and late year performance was the schedule easing up some. The beginning of last year was a brutality. -Steph]

MIGHT be overrated? You think? He has ALWAYS been overrated…just like Reggie Bush and Vince Young. He is a route jumper, not a CB, which means when he gets the ball it is a total accident…he HAPPENED to be in the right place at the right time. That is not good enough now, nor has it ever been good enough. He should be replaced ASAP. He has turned out to be nothing but a money grabber…and it is time to put that money back into the team…Dunta needs to find another home…I believe he is all washed-up here.

I have had 2 PSLs since day one. I find it very interesting that fans, including writers, are going out of their way to bash Dunta, who clearly played great defense until he was hurt. He is holding out because he was betrayed by Rick Smith or in the least by the GM’s ineptitude. And it should be a signal to players, and writers, that you can not rely on Texan’s management. I hope he remains out for the year. The weakest link on the Texans is not the defense or the cornerback. The management infrastructure has been Bob McNair’s problem all along, and unfortunately, one he can’t seem to fix.

[Personally, I am not going out of my way to bash anyone–I’m just trying to find information that people might be interested in. Robinson publicly was not happy with the GM and felt betrayed. The GM explained that the franchise tag was always an option, and given that publicly there werediscussions of the franchise tag being put on DR, his agent did him a disservice if DR were truly surprised by it. The Texans never publicly dumped DR in the grease: http://blogs.chron.com/texanschick/2009/02/spinning_rick_smith_and_a_texa.html It is not unusual for players and management to be at odds–it is unusual for the Texans because they’ve had so few players worth re-signing to big money. The leaked information about DR’s contract negotiations suggests that the offer made by the Texans seems to be a pretty fair one for someone with his historic performance and coming off of serious injury where DR concedes he didn’t play 100%. We aren’t a part of the negotiations, and shouldn’t be, so it’s hard to look at it from the outside to determine who is being realistic with value or not. -Steph]

Anybody who thinks that Dunta Robinson is overrated either is on the Texans payroll or doesn’t know a thing about football. Anybody who follows the Texans saw how the defense began to play A LOT BETTER with Robinson on the field.

As far as his contract situation is concerned he has every right to ticked off with the Texans front office. There is no way Rick Smith can justify paying Jacque Reeves 20 million dollars guranteed and not take care of Dunta.Robinson has made an impact on this defense since day one and proved that last season that he has fully recovered from his injury.

[These are things I think I know relevant to your comment. 1. The Texans won more games with DR on the field last year. They were 1-4 without him, and 7-4 with him. 2. Those particular numbers are skewed a bit because the hardest part of the Texans schedule was at the beginning of the year, especially before the offense got their stuff together; 3. I’m not sure the Texans defense played A LOT better after Robinson came on board. The Texans ended the year with one of the worst defensive efficiency ratings in the league. I believe the only game they played above NFL average was against the Browns; 4. DR did not look right at all when he came back. He acknowledges he wasn’t playing at 100%; 5. Nobody knows at this point whether DR will ever play 100% again or is more likely to have a re-injury. Some of the biggest risk factors for future hamstring injuries is a history of hamstring injuries and being fast; 6. I think it might be worth slightly overpaying for DR because of leadership help he gives the Texans and lack of proven depth but not worth a huge contract compromising the cap. -Steph]

Great blog about Dunta. I was thinking the same thing. He really doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on (pun not intended), in this contract dispute. No one knows how he will be next year. I would think his best bet is to play out this year, prove himself and then go on the market.

It’s about time. Dunta has been overrated for some time now. Watch him closely (if you have the opportunity now)and you will see that he gets burned at least once a game. Usually for a touchdown. It has blown me away how this guy has gotten his _ss kissed in this city for so long. 86 him for crying out loud. Send him to Buffalo with TO or some other 3rd world football city and watch him get his jock handed to him there too. Thanks and congratulations Stephanie for having the cojones to address this situation.

[I am 100% cajones free. I’m just trying to pass along information I think fans are interested in. I have to say I’m a fan of DRs work and heart–I am very impressed on how hard he worked to get back from a very big injury, an injury so big I haven’t been able to find a recovery from another one like it in a speed athlete. Ken Griffey Jr, I think had a similar injury but he isn’t playing NFL CB. But you can be a fan of a player without wanting to have your team overpay for his position. Without us knowing the details of the contract negotiations, I do not care to judge. -Steph]

Hey Steph, thanks for the response. I completely agree. However, I also think no one can really argue with the fact that our defensive talent has been marginal at best under Kubiak. And while Kubiak (who I like as a coach) certainly deserves major kudo’s for dramatically improving our offense, he was only able to do so after adding better talent, i.e. Schaub, Walters, OD, Winston, Slaton. While I am certainly NOT a fan of R. Smith, combine poor talent with a lack of motivation and/or poor scheming and you have the disaster that was the Texans’ 4-3 defense the last 3 years. Now that we’ve trimmed some defensive fat (with more to go I hope!), added better talent, and will employ a better scheme (could it really be worse?), things should be much improved.

Dunta. He was certainly one of my favorite Texans. A player who played unafraid, played the game hard, and was a leader. However, I think he and/or his agent have an overinflated opinion of his value as a CB post-injury. No way should we commit max dollars for a post-knee injury CB who had marginal elite cover skills to begin with.

[You speak of the talent added to the offense, but I’m not sure if all of the guys you mention have the seasons they’ve had under the Texans offensive coaching. Schaub (backup QB for ATL), Walters (couldn’t find the field for the Bengals), OD (4th round pick on nobodies radar screen playing for an offense that uses the TE more than most in the league); Winston (dropped to the third round-great fit in a ZBS); Slaton (third round back-great fit in a ZBS). You could see immediate improvement on the offensive side of the ball from 2005 to 2006, and improvement each year. None of the guys you mention are superstar first round studs–they were good choices for fit within a system. I can’t agree that the defensive talent they’ve added has been marginal at best–maybe if they had the coaching that the offense has had, they would be the standout players too. -Steph]

To move out of the “NFL’s worst defense over the past 4 years” to respectabilty, it would sure make me feel better had they hired an established DC. Bush is a crapshoot. But that’s why I can never take the Texans too seriously. They never make dramatic moves.

[Dramatic moves? Steelers don’t make too many dramatic moves either and they won the SB. There were pros and cons to the Bush hire: Cons: Never been a DC; Doesn’t have a proven philosophy; Would like an experienced DC to match with an offensive minded head coach. Pros: Doesn’t have a big learning curve with knowing strengths and weaknesses of personnel which can be a bit of an issue; Kubiak surrounded him with experienced assistants; No experienced DC available last year really was a no brainer match; players respect him. -Steph]

In signing free agent Antonio Smith and drafting Cushing and Barwin, the Texans are obviously trying to put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

I am sure that you would agree that if Peyton Manning has 5 minutes to relax back in the pocket, he is going to beat every NFL cornerback that ever played the game.

[Not all the receptions are 5 seconds in the pocket. You can also make the case that the defensive line doesn’t get much in terms of coverage sacks. Personally, I think it all works together with scheme–the different units on defense didn’t look like they played well together as a group. Seemed to be a lot of confusion, people out of position on the defensive side of the ball. -Steph]

Thanks Steph for some real meat on these bones. Whatever would we do without you?

My translation of Bill Barnwell probably mirrors that of most other fans’. Dunta came back a little early from a major injury so teams tested him. He was rusty and not fully recovered, so the better teams had success against him. He certainly wasn’t helped by a sack-happy defensive front that forced QB’s to throw under pressure, and that goes for all of our DB’s. In fact, when taking into consideration our abysmal pass rush, Fred Bennett’s 2007 numbers are eye-popping. If he can return to 85% of that level of play, then our secondary should be much improved. I also really like the addition of David Gibbs back there. He’s not only had success coaching DB’s in the NFL, but he’s another reason for his father to stick around.

Just think what December can be like if we actually do get better up front.

[Thanks! This is a pretty fair discussion of the secondary situation–http://myespn.go.com/blogs/nflnation/0-7-839/Spotlight-or-searchlight-for-Texans-safeties-.html . From both a talent and a scheme perspective. -Steph]

This is funny. I’ve virtually been warned by another ChronBlogger – whose rep as a real football personnel guy is supposed to be spotless – that I’m liable to be persona non grata on his blog if I ever say anything in praise of Jacques Reeves again.But the fact remains: he was actually the Texans’ best corner last season. I’m sorry that this statement is parsed as being somehow in support of the Texans’ taking future Cowboys cast-offs, but facts are facts.I am proud of the way the Texans have held the line on Dunta Robinson. This is nothing against Dunta, it’s a recognition that the days of throwing stupid-stupid-stupid money at players who don’t warrant it based on recent history, may well be over.Why all the teams haven’t figured out how the Patriots got so good, and stay so good this decade, I just can’t figure. They scout carefully, develop religiously, and cut ’em loose as soon as they start whining for ridiculous loot – even if their names are Asante Samuel.I have nothing against NFL players making ridiculous fortunes. But too often, teams get (and stay) in “cap hell” because they just can’t stop themselves overspending, and I DO have a great deal against supporting a team with a bunch of overpaid underachievers – or even one or two overpaid ACHIEVERS and a whole bunch of bit-players (that’s more a “baseball thing” I guess, but you know what I mean).

[Hmmm I’m not sure what you said over there.Don’t hurt youself patting yourself on the back though-saying someone is the best CB for the Texans is damning with the faintest praise-the secondary had near the worst numbers of one of the worst defenses. Teams targeted Reeves. They don’t do that if they think he is awesome. -Steph]

He is being offered a 1 year top 5 salary… –Posted by: Chris at July 13, 2009 02:51 PMThe way that Dunta (and his agent, more to the point) looks at it, he’s being offered a one-year salary, period.Look, I don’t think the Texans should budge an inch on this score, but I can look at it from Robinson’s pov, and understand completely where he’s coming from – no drugs required.He has already stared the “career grim reaper” in the puss, and he didn’t like what he saw. Had his career ended after his injury, he would have lost tens of millions in potential income. A few paltry million just doesn’t compare.So he wants to lock in a huge payday, and he’s apt to justify that any number of ways, including comparing himself (perhaps unfairly) to the league’s best cornerbacks, talking about how he has “given everything to this team and wants respect,” etc.It’s all bull**** of course, because you never get “what you’re worth,” you get what you negotiate, and negotiations are influenced by any number of factors, many if not most of which are beyond the complete control of either side.I can understand thinking “if I go out there next season and get hurt again, that’s it. I’m out those many millions that I would have earned. I want my paydays guaranteed.”I mean, who the **** wouldn’t? I’m still in “layoff mode,” and I for sure would love to have a new job making twice what I was making before, for half the work. That would be outstanding!But I’m a worker-bee who knows the realities of the market. I don’t have a personal publicist, and an agent, who’re concocting all sorts of hyperventilated reasons why I’m one of the “elites” of my profession, etc.”Vanity of vanities, saith the Preacher, all is vanity.” The same guy also observed that “there is nothing new under the sun.”Even in this sweltering summer heat.

…in the NFL you also have to measured by your heart. –Posted by: Real Texans Fan at July 13, 2009 03:02 PMNo. FANS might refer to this fictitious “heart” as a reason that a player who isn’t making the plays he ought to make given his status with the team, should be given the benefit of the doubt, but I am quite sure that’s not the way COACHES and PLAYERS look at it.How many times we have heard that Player X was going to be a “star” in the League because “he has heart.” “Heart,” “intangible,” “potential,” all are words favored by the Oprah Winfrey School of Philosophy, used to justify an emotional attachment to some player who otherwise has no rational basis for such fervent applause.Dunta Robinson is valuable to this team to the extent that he plays his position and does his part to help the team win. He isn’t paid to have “heart,” and he isn’t paid to be “an inspiration to his other teammates.”I heard a radio interview a couple of years ago between a local sports-radio talk-jock and a writer for ESPN The Magazine. The local guy was asking about a certain local quart-a-back product who everyone was SURE had the “heart” to succeed big-time in the NFL, but whose second season in the League had been a bit of a downer. The local asked a question along the lines of “isn’t it true, though, that this guy’s leadership is an intangible that makes him stand out even if he doesn’t quite have the QB numbers?”The writer sort of chuckled and said “when you talk to NFL players about who inspires them, they uniformly tell you it’s the guy who gets out there and makes plays. That’s leadership, to an NFL team.”If you can’t play the game at the highest level, but you can TALK about how others should play the game…well, that’s called “coaching.” Go be a coach. They all have “heart.”

I wonder if Dunta is not playing his cards for a big payday next year with no salary cap? Supposedly he walked away from $22-$23 million GTD for $9 million this year. Maybe he’s thinking he can get $30-$35 GTD next year with a healthy year behind him. That along with the $9 million this year is $39-$44 million GTD. That would be about twice what he was offered this year. Greedy pigs usually get slaughtered though. The fact that the Texans took 3 DBs in this years draft, fired Hoke, brought in Gibbs, still have Rhodes says to me the Texans aren’t expecting Dunta back next year and will be happy to take a 3rd rd compensatory draft pick with his departure. Wednesday is the deadline for Dunta to sign a long term deal this year.

[The phrase I’ve heard is “Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered.” I put this post first in the Barnwell chat because of the Wednesday deadline on the long term deal. -Steph]

“Is he that bad? Probably not. Robinson probably drew the toughest receivers when he was on the field” B.B.

Don’t you believe these experts should study just a little about what kind of defensive scheme they are making their Expert analysis on ?

[He specializes in the numbers…he will be the first to acknowledge that specialists in a team will know more about the details of a team than someone who looks at the NFL overall. Also, he didn’t write the FOA chapter on the Texans. I can’t say I agree with all the analysis in that, but it’s hard to argue with the numbers. (The only way I will agree with everything someone writes about the team is if I write it myself. 😉 ) FO has game charters who chart every play of the season, and then compare it to NFL averages. I think putting this conversation together is cool–I like bringing the numbers people together with fans who are close observers of the team. It challenges everyone’s assumptions and makes everyone think of things they might not have thought of before. -Steph]

Reeves is a target, still he is the most effective CB on the team. The question is why is Reeves a target when the completion vs attempt ratio is considerably lower then most NFL CBs?

The reason is he has in the past posed the least threat of a turnover. Look the man can flat cover, his weakness has been playing the ball. QBs feel that if they throw at Reeves, especially on first or second down that the chance of getting a pick go down because he is not aggressive pursuing the ball.

Steph– is their any state that could break down how many of the attempts against Reeves were on what downs?

I will say this, if D Gibbs is successful in getting the guy confident enough to make a play on the ball he can be one top corners in the league because he has all the physical attribute to be a top flight corner, explosive closing speed, good hips, good jumping ability and reflexes. He is a top notch cover guy, if he can master the mental part and play the ball enough to make QBs hesitate throwing at him, you will see the Target tag disappear rather quickly.

I think it is a Psyche thing, he fears getting burned and hesitate just a smidge and that’s deadly. If he beats that well the sky is the limit for the guy.

[I don’t know the answer to your question. I’m not sure how much you can rely on coach em up with Reeves. Don’t have a lot of optimism on that-but then again, lots of changes going on. -S]

I think once we get better safety play a lot of the fear of giving up the big play will be gone.I cite the oakland game from last season. Namdi Assomougha is a phenomenal corner, but he did not shut down Andre johnson by himself. the safety was helping him. After all the week before the titans single covered andre with another probowl corner and Andre abused him.I do not see him being a top notch guy because you also have to have alot of instincts to play in the secondary. I think the Texans are a dominant nose tackle and a hard hitting safety that can cover away from being an elite defense.You look at the defenses that did good in the regular season or post season and they all had great play from their safeties. Pittsburgh-polomalu,ravens-Ed reed, Titans-One of the griffens(Cedric?)Cardinals-Adrian Wilson. Philly-Brian Dawkens.My mancrush alert for the 2010 nfl draft is Taylor Mays. I do not see any point in waiting til january to announce who I want on my football team in 2011 season.

To whom it may concern:

Me and GB had an interesting discussion on the JLR’s blog about a week ago on this discussion. I played the role of defense attorney(a role I hope to play in 4 years) for Dunta and GB played the role of prosecutor for the peeps. I am not going to beat this issue like dead horse because my opinion about the guy is very well documented.1.)Stop “crucifying” Dunta for not returning back to form with a bad wheel at a position where your wheels are vital.2)I predict dunta is going to come back next year and blow yalls minds because if there is anybody that does not need any extra motivation it is dunta.3.)Nobody over hear was in that room and heard what was said/promised/offered. It is a he said he said game and there is evidence to support whoever you want.

Do you think people are over looking the Vet Cato June? I just believe the experience factor may give the guy a little edge.

[If the training camp battle is close, they’d prefer the younger guy, I am speculating. There are some who believe that in preparation for the uncapped year, your team is best off having young cheap good guys under contract. -Steph]

Truth, I think you are not understanding that alot of us don’t repsect D.R. anymore. He is suppose to be a leader not a( my knee might not hold up so let me grab as much money as i can before it crumbles. ) Truth just stop it please with the Blah, Blah, Blah. If he is what he says he is he can prove it next year for close to 10 million dollars that most of us would love to have to sit on the bench or serve them gatorade.

Anyways, Steph thanks for the post. You have really been a lifesaver this dreadfull offseason. I think that we will be in the middle of the pack possibly better than that this season on defense. R.S. scheme was scary and predictable. It kinda reminded me of watching the Oilers Vs. Bills game, but just having to watch it weekly. Ok, just thinking about that gave me a headache. Keep up the good work and have you heard anything about our draft class getting signed. Thanks Steph A*K*A Cutie Pie

The Texans have too many prospects at the CB position to throw stupid money at DR… The franchise tag, this year, might even be a mistake. His value to the Texans, as you’ve stated previously, is not quantifiable in the free market.I think this might be a drama they could do without… cut losses and see what Molden or Bennett can do with more playing time.Come on training camp, come on Football season!

Steph…I think we are having a failure to communicate. Kubiak brought a sound offensive system to the Texans…but he also had to stock his offense with talent that fit his system. Our offense did not take off until he replaced Carr, Wade, Miller, Dayne, Moulds, etc., with better talent that then grew into the system. The results now speak for themselves.

On defense, we have added Mario and Ryans, but little else under Kubiak. The jury is still very much out on Okye and Bennett. Our Will and Sam backers have been, to be very generous, average. Secondary? Beyond a pre-injury Dunta, we have stocked nothing but journeyman players. While serviceable, they do not possess the requisite skill level for a true playoff caliber defense. Combine below average players with a questionable defensive scheme, and we have our poor defense under Kubiak.

So in the end, we are dancing around a chicken versus egg argument. Better scheming may well have provided better defensive results; however, I think, in the end, the more pressing problem was a lack of talent…a lack of talent that would not have fit ANY scheme well. One can only scheme so much. In the end, and as a general principle, I think talent will prevail.

We now have better talent on defense and what we all hope will be a more focused, aggressive, and coherent scheme.

Great discussion nonetheless.

[I think we are agreeing more than disagreeing. It is my belief that very few players are so good that their play can transcend their situation or scheme–maybe players like Andre Johnson, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans. For the vast majority of players, they need to be in a good situation to shine. It is difficult to evaluate the quality of pickups on defense because the coaching on the defensive side of the ball has been underwhelming. Even without many changes in offensive personnel in 2006, you could see a difference right away. The defense has stayed bad. I’m not sure the defensive coaching is going to be any better this year–little track record to look at for this defensive coaching group together. -Steph]

Yeah. Reeves percentages were better. But….How about the Yards Per Completion against Reeves ? If he is not giving up the 40 or 50 yard completion he is knocking it down with the Back of his helmet. Reeves is a Track guy. Robinson is a football player.

I agree that Dunta should be upset that Rick Smith lied to him about not franchising him. But once you get that fact, because what’s done is done, we need to evaluate how good Dunta is. I don’t think he deserves to be the 2nd highest paid corner in the league. Even in his best season he was never a shutdown corner. Sure he is a big hitter and plays with heart, but I think the offer that was supposedly on the table (being the 4th or 5th highest paid corner) is an unbelievable deal. Especially for someone who is coming off an injury and we don’t how much of an impact he’ll be able to have.

Now the other question we have to ask is should we give in to his demands and pay him because we need him? What’s the alternative? I say we don’t pay him and take our chances with Fred Bennett if we have to.

The only thing I fear more than having a bad secondary is having a potential problem in the locker room.

D. Robinson has what we call Keyshawn Syndrome, while he is good, he’s not half as good as he thinks he is. If he reports for camp on time, then no harm done. However if he holds out through camp and doesnt sign, then when he does come into sign before the season starts I would remove the Franchise tagg and let him become a free agent. At best he wouls get a few million bucks from some other team for the up comming season and have to prove himself for a long term deal. He will lose out on about 8 million bucks and have to watch the Texans go all the way without him. We will be just fine without him.

If you know Dunta or GM Rick Smith maybe you should email this to them? LOL! Dunta? I have no idea whats this guys deal. He really is seeming like he doesnt want to be a Texan and is more mad that they didnt allow him to be a free agent more than anything. He wasnt going to get a better offer though. I think his offers would have been lower but maybe they should have let him see for himself?

By the way I forgot to say, “Hi”. So, HI! Stephanie. It is a brutally long offseason with no sports and the possible playoff Texans seemingly taking forever to get here. Thanks for the interesting posts to keep me occupied for that time Texans Chick.

[Hi, Chris. I’m okay in dealing with the offseason. The heat and no rain on the other hand….Thanks for the kind words. -S]

Dunta Robinson’s performance, at best, for the next 3 years will likely be consistent with a somewhat better-than-average cornerback. I think that we are better off to keep him given that Bennett and Molden are not at a point to competently take over a starting CB spot. The issue about retaining and paying Dunta comes down to this: we are lacking a player to take over, not that we are facing the prospect of losing an All-Pro talent. Dunta will probably be losing another step or two in 2010-11. It really comes down to paying him a bundle to maintain a level of talent going into a time for the team where we may actually be competitive for the playoffs. Does Dunta act excited at all about playing in a new defensive scheme? His performance will naturally get better if our defense actually chases QB’s hard and with regularity.

[Ultimately, there are more questions than answers with what we know of the situation, and what is even knowable. -S]

MST: “D. Robinson has what we call Keyshawn Syndrome, while he is good, he’s not half as good as he thinks he is.”

I watched Keyshawn play for a few years in New York. He was spectacular in that offense. He went to Tampa Bay and, surprise, sucked because they had zero offense, no QB, and no other offensive threats. Jerry Rice would have sucked in that offense.

I’m not nominating Keyshawn for the Hall of Fame (and I definitely agree that he thinks he’s way better than he actually is), but success in the NFL is about whether the scheme that a player is in works for their skills and whether there are complimentary players around them (e.g., a QB with the arm to get the ball to a receiver). The best recent example is Randy Moss. He was a stud in Minnesota opposite Cris Carter and with rocket arms at QB, was useless in Oakland with no QB and general ineptitude throughout the team, and a stud again in NE with Brady, Wes Welker, and Belichick’s ol’ black magic.

I don’t know whether Dunta has the right skills to excel in the new Texans defense or not, but I don’t think he deserves to be ranked among the best in the league. I don’t blame him for trying to get top money, but I hope he comes to his senses and accepts reality. A franchise tender pays him top 5 money though he hasn’t proven to be a top 5 CB. Players hate the franchise tenders not because of the base salary (which is top 5 for the position) but because they are not long term deals and they lack large piles of guaranteed money. I just don’t think Dunta has earned either yet.

I’m with you on this one. Sign Dunta, without all that incentive garbage they are calling a Top 5 offer. Either Dunta or Rick Smith is a fibber. After watching and listening these last few years, I choose to believe Robinson.

Rick Smith seems like he’s working on running off good players instead of aquiring them. Maybe if he ever drafts a top defensive player, he will actually live up to his “I’m a role model” ego.

[Smith quietly signed Andre Johnson and Eric Winston to long term contracts so I guess he didn’t try to run them off. It is quite possible that two people can have a different perception of the same topic and believe that they are in the right (without one being a fibber and especially when there are agents as intermediaries). It happens every day, including in this blog post. What do you think is the appropriate value for a CB with DR’s pluses and minuses? It’s not an easy assessment. -Steph]

This is actually a pretty simple problem to solve. Guys who truly play for their teammates show up and let their agents take care of the business side of things. If Dunta wanted a long term deal he should shut up and prove that he deserves to be paid like the number one corner that he believes he is. He is the Texans best corner but considering what we have that isn’t saying much. Bottom line: Dunta needs the money and the playing time more than the Texans need him. They can always trade, sign, or draft a better corner. But unless Dunta already has a deal with the devil in place aka Al Davis no one else will overpay for him. Not even the Texans.

Boy Steve Jones, that is the exact same comparison that I have made regarding RS he reminds me of Jim Eddy. Eddy was a great guy, very knowledgable but got stuck. We were read and react and when the opponents figured out the schemes he was clueless.

The next year we brought in Buddy Ryan, BIG BIG BIG DIFFERENCE same guys, different scheme and attitude. I hope for something similar though I don’t expect us to be top ten. I do expect us to be better, a good bit better.

truth, I just simply think that Dunta is damaged goods until he proves otherwise. I don’t care how much heart you have or how hard you work. The severity of the injury and scar tissue can make it so that he never fully recovers his wheels, not to mention the increase chances of re injury! The Texans offering him 9 mil was a pretty big incentive and if I was going to sign him to a long term contract I would fill it with various incentives because I don’t know if he has returned to form or ever will.

With him missing OTAs and mini camp the Texans have no way to measure his progress, NO WAY THEY ARE GOING TO SIGN A FAT CONTRACT WITH GUARANTEED MONEY WITHOUT HAVING A LOT MORE ASSURANCE That they aren’t flushing a lot cap money down the toilet and with DeMeco, Schuab, M Williams, Pitts looming on the horizon we can ill afford to burn a lot money without a whole lot of assurance. Bottomline if DRob doesn’t sign the tag he’s an idiot. As I said if I am him I sign tomorrow, I show up for camp I prove that I have my wheels back for a few weeks and then negotiate for a longer term contract. If I don’t get it I walk, (if I feel that strongly) HE has no leverage at all right now. NONE NADA ZIP!

“What do you think is the appropriate value for a CB with DR’s pluses and minuses?” SS

On a rate scale ? I would value Robinson at 10 percent above Reeves on football skills and 15 percent above Reeves on Tenure & Intangibles (leadership, hard hitting, NOT a bootlicker). I’m to tired to look up what Reeves makes, but I believe quite a bit is guaranteed ? Guaranteed Money is the Key Value in any Contract OFFER.

[Agreed. Guaranteed money is where it is at in the NFL. What DR reportedly wants is nowhere in the vicinity of what Reeves got guaranteed. Reeves got reportedly $8 m guaranteed. Published reports suggest that DR wants in excess of $23m. Here’s an article with a chart in the Houston Examiner by Alan Burge that illustrates this point well: http://bit.ly/CVaID . -Steph]

We can argue this issue until we are blue in the face but bottomline is it will be settled on the field. I have seen people come back from ACL and MCL injuries before.You have my word that if dunta reinjurs himself or does not return back to the dunta we all know I will come one of the fan blogs and admit I am wrong. I really and truly believe that he will show next year that he is head and shoulders above the rest of our corners. I do not think he will be here long term because there is only so much pie that can be divided for the family and I think one of our younger guys will step forward this time next season.

@Texan Steve

I understand that you all do not respect him any more and I think it is unjustified because you were not in the room. They could theoretically both have valid points in this dispute.My point is do not be so quick to turn on dunta when we do not know what was said exactly. I have never said Rick Smith is wrong. I am just opposed to the people that want to tar and feather dunta.

@Scotty

I am really looking forward to your definition of spectacular.We debated this point a couple of weeks ago, but I really want to see where you are coming from. If you took the time to look at johnson’s stats, you would see they are not spectacular and he had his highest yards per season and reception per season with Tampa bay who as you quote “sucked because they had zero offense, no QB, and no other offensive threats.”

@Fred

Our offense is filled with 3rd and 4th rounders. my ultimate point is you do not need to have 1st rounders at ever skill position and every offensive line position to be top offense. It takes good coaching, good drafting,good play calling, and good developing to turn Shaub(4th rounder), Slaton(3rd Rounder), Daniels(4th rounder), and Walter (4th or 5th stringer) into the good offense we run. Just like in offense you need the aforementioned combination, we have not had that combination on defense yet. teams like the steelers and patriots take guys that fit what they want to do and develop them. We had an inept defensive coordinator and the coaching was not great. Although we have an inexperienced coordinator, we have surronded the coordinator with experience and guys that have good resumes.

[DR didn’t just have an ACL injury. He had his ACL torn and his hamstring torn off of the bone. (which hurts me even when I read that phrase). http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/wireStory?id=6033902 . At the time, I researched to find any speed athlete that came back from that combination of injuries and couldn’t find one. I believe he may be a statistic of one, which makes his valuation difficult. -Steph]

I’m not here to tar and feather. I’m just saying D.Rob should go on a Date before he asks the Texans to Marry Him. He is trying to get over on the Texans right now because he nor the Texans know how that leg will hold up. It would be foolish and costly to make that kind of commitement. That would be a Charley Casserly move and Rick Smith is way to smart for that, trust RS will protect himself. DRob needs to man up and stop playing games. Like I said he needs to prove his health before he asks for the big money multi/ Y deal.

I would trade Dunta in a split second for the Dolphin’s draft pick Vontae Davis. Davis hits much harder than Dunta, is far better in coverage, is much bigger, stronger, and faster. Davis has a much better attitude and has a far brigher future than Dunta. I am not sure Miami would do it but I sure would be offering this deal. Vontae was the best defensive back by far in this draft and he has a great future in the NFL. Dunta is going to scare other teams off with his attitude. I would trade him before he becomes such a problem that he has a negative impact on our beloved team.

Truth, this is a Texans blog, not a Jets blog, so I won’t belabor the point. First, as I’ve said before, I am not a Keyshawn defender. Not in the least. Second, I was definitely exagerating a bit to make my point when I said he sucked in TB and was spectacular in NY. I say spectacular because that’s what it was like watching him play. Overall, however, my point holds up.

Statistics do not always tell the whole story about a player’s impact on a team. Even still, if you look at Johnson’s career objectively, his four years in NY were better than his four years in TB. In NY vs. TB his yards and receptions per game were nearly identical, but he had nearly twice as many touchdowns per season in NY and, equally important, zero fumbles in NY and 4 in only his first two years in TB.

Keyshawn was certainly not the best WR who ever played (nor even the best when he played) but he was definitelty better in NY in their high octane offense with Testeverde’s arm than he ever was in TB, which was my larger point. There are probably better examples, though, you’re right, like Moss who I also referenced in my post. As Steph has also said, with only rare exceptions, a player and a scheme must be a good fit for the player (and the scheme) to excel.

Thus ends my discussion of the Jets on this Texans blog, which I’m sure excites Steph to no end.

[I like good football talk of all kinds–you were making a point relevant to the Texans, and that is fine by me. -S]