An Alternative Look at the Promotion Run-In (That Bodes Well For Leeds)

Every take on the promotion race is based on hunch. Like going to The Races and backing the horse who most recently had a number 2 under the guise they’ll be more lightweight.

The Championship, the league of all leagues, the competition to rule them all, the Saturday Acca ruiner, is unpredictable, yes. But. What If.

Every commentator, fan and dog-walker each has their own insight into why Leeds will bottle, or West Brom will actually make their late surge to the top of the table. None of them are by any means conclusive. But each do contribute a little bit more to an understanding of how things will play out.

Here is a method I am yet to see in full, but I hope provides a good prediction of just how things might go:

Right, so what is it. This is how the reverse fixture of each game of the ‘run in’ that Leeds and Sheffield United have went. On the face of it, Leeds would get 14 points from the remaining 21. Sheffield United would get 12. From current standings, Leeds go up 4 points clear.

But this is by no means gospel. For example, Birmingham have a renewed bite between their teeth following their 9 point deduction, they desperately need a win to settle relegation nerves. We also can’t rely on Ipswich to pull out a draw again against the Blades.

There are many nuances to this league and that’s why it is genuinely the most action-packed in the world. It is certainly not over yet.