Less than 4 percent of Minnesota U.S. House incumbents have been defeated out of more than 200 who won at least 60 percent of the vote during the previous election cycle

Despite seemingly being unable to capitalize on the national GOP momentum in the state's gubernatorial race thus far, Republicans in Minnesota are nonetheless buoyed of late by polling results suggesting DFL incumbents Tim Walz from the 1st CD and D.C. mainstay Jim Oberstar from the 8th CD could be vulnerable this November.

In Walz's case, a SurveyUSA poll released last week found the two-term incumbent with only a 47 to 42 percent advantage over Republican state Representative Randy Demmer.

For Oberstar, the hullabaloo came not from a public poll but from one conducted by a GOP pollster, funded by the campaign of his challenger, Chip Cravaack.

Both polls provoked significant statewide and national interest in these Minnesota races, with several D.C. prognosticators shifting their ratings of these congressional seats to more competitive as a result.

Tim Walz's seat is now rated as 'leans Democrat' by both Congressional Quarterly and the Cook Political Report, while Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Rothenberg Political Report rate it one notch safer for the incumbent ('likely Democrat' and 'Democratic favored' respectively).

Jim Oberstar's district, which had previously not been on any of the analysts' chalkboards of seats in play in 2010, is now rated as 'likely Democrat' by Congressional Quarterly and Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg equivalent of 'Democratic favored.'

But if these two seats are in fact 'in play,' what are the odds they could actually flip on November 2nd, even in a Republican wave election year?

Smart Politics analyzed each of the more than 550 general election Minnesota U.S. House matchups conducted since statehood and finds there is only scarce historical precedence that either Oberstar or Walz can be defeated in 2010.

Overall, incumbents have appeared on the general election ballot in 487 out of 552 U.S. House races in the Gopher State, winning 425 of these, or 87.3 percent of the time.

But the fact there is an incumbency advantage in Congressional elections is not news.

Oberstar and Walz, however, are not ordinary incumbents.

Oberstar won his 18th term with 67.7 percent of the vote in 2008, while Walz won his second term with a nearly as impressive 62.5 percent.

Why is this important?

Only 8 of 203 Minnesota U.S. House incumbents have been defeated in the general election after receiving at least 60 percent of the vote during the previous election cycle, or just 3.9 percent.

(Note: the data above excludes four incumbents who were defeated during the 1932 election, in which the Gopher State elected all nine Representatives to the U.S. House as at-large representatives. This resulted in 32 candidates appearing on the ballot for nine seats, with the winning representatives carrying only between 4.0 and 5.0 percent of the vote. Six Republicans who had won election in 1930 were defeated, with four of these having earned more than 60 percent of the vote in their respective district races).

So what does this mean for the prospects of a GOP upset in MN-01 or MN-08 in 2010?

For starters, it means Minnesota Congressmen who reach the 60 percent plateau are more than five times less likely to get defeated at the ballot box (3.9 percent) than those incumbents who fall short of the 60 percent mark (21.1 percent).

For Oberstar, the numbers are even more striking.

Only one incumbent in Minnesota history has ever been defeated after winning as large a percentage as Oberstar's 67.7 percent tally during the previous election cycle.

And the one time such a defeat did take place, it involved an incumbent who had just been out-districted.

In 1982, Arlen Ehrdal was out-districted from the 1st to the 6th district, and saw his 71.8 percent vote total in 1980 over DFLer Russell Smith fall to just 49.2 percent in defeat to DFLer Gerry Sikorski, running in a district with many new faces.

For Walz, who won 62.5 percent of the vote in 2008, this means only four incumbents in history have ever been defeated after winning as large a percentage of the vote as he did during the previous election cycle: Erdahl (71.8 percent in 1980), Republican Melvin Maas (65.1 percent in 1942), Sikorski (64.6 percent in 1990), and Republican James McCleary (64.1 percent in 1904).

In short, the vast majority of the already small universe of incumbents who have been defeated at the ballot box were not nearly as successful as Oberstar or Walz during the previous election cycle - averaging just 53.1 percent of the vote overall.

This means many of these incumbents were already involved in competitive races just two years prior to their defeat:

· Three incumbents had not won even 40 percent of the vote· Another 10 incumbents earned between 40 and 50 percent of the vote· Nearly three-dozen incumbents earned between 50 and 60 percent of the vote.

And of those eight incumbents who were defeated after earning at least 60 percent of the vote, half had to run during a year with brand new district lines (years ending in '2'): Erdahl in 1982, Republican Loren Fletcher in 1902, Republican Walter Judd in 1962, and Sikorski in 1992.

Of course, it is unlikely Walz will let up on the accelerator during the final two weeks of the campaign as he tries to stave off Randy Demmer. Two years prior to Walz's defeat of GOPer Gil Gutknecht in 2006, Gutknecht had notched 59.6 percent of the vote, or about three points shy of Walz's 2008 tally.

Percentage of Vote Received by Minnesota U.S. Representatives During the Election Cycle Prior to Defeat

Year

U.S. Rep.

Party

Terms

Percent

1982

Arlen Erdahl*

GOP

2

71.8

1944

Melvin J. Maas

GOP

8

65.1

1992

Gerry Sikorski

DFL

6

64.6

1906

James T. McCleary

GOP

7

64.1

1962

Walter H. Judd

GOP

10

60.9

1868

Ignatius Donnelly

GOP

3

60.8

1982

Tom Hagedorn**

GOP

4

60.6

1954

Harold C. Hagen

GOP

6

60.5

2006

Gil Gutknecht

GOP

6

59.6

1902

Loren Fletcher

GOP

5

59.4

1948

Harold Knutson

GOP

16

57.4

1920

William L. Carss

Democrat

1

57.1

2000

David Minge

DFL

4

57.0

1926

Knud Wefald

Farmer-Labor

2

56.8

1938

John T. Bernard

Farmer-Labor

1

56.4

1928

William L. Carss

Farmer-Labor

3

55.4

1990

Arlan Stangeland

GOP

7

54.6

1890

Samuel P. Snider

GOP

1

53.8

1892

William H. Harries

Democrat-Farmer's

1

53.6

1896

Charles A. Towne

Democrat-People's

1

53.3

1886

John B. Gilfillan

GOP

1

53.2

1890

Solomon G. Comstock

GOP

1

52.7

1958

Coya Knutson

DFL

2

52.7

1922

Halvor Steenerson

GOP

10

52.6

1878

Horace B. Strait

GOP

2

52.5

1888

Edmund Rice

Democrat

1

52.4

1888

Thomas Wilson

Democrat

1

52.0

1946

William A. Pittenger

GOP

7

51.9

1946

Frank T. Starkey

DFL

1

51.8

1966

Alec G. Olson

DFL

2

51.8

1892

James N. Castle

Democrat

1

51.8

1918

Clarence B. Miller

GOP

5

51.6

1960

Roy W. Wier

DFL

6

51.6

1948

Edward J. Devitt

GOP

1

51.5

1948

George MacKinnon

GOP

1

51.5

1890

Darwin S. Hall

GOP

1

51.4

1970

Odin Langen

GOP

6

51.2

1890

Mark H. Dunnell

GOP

6

50.4

1888

John L. MacDonald

Democrat

1

50.3

1880

Henry Poehler

Democrat

1

50.0

1938

Paul John Kvale

Farmer-Labor

5

49.7

2002

Bill Luther***

DFL

4

49.6

1944

Richard P. Gale

GOP

2

49.0

1938

Dewey W. Johnson

Farmer-Labor

1

47.8

1922

Andrew J. Volstead

GOP

10

47.5

1938

Henry G. Teigan

Farmer-Labor

1

46.3

1940

John G. Alexander****

Ind-Republican

1

45.3

1894

Osee M. Hall

Democrat

2

44.8

1940

Elmer J. Ryan

Democrat

3

43.6

1894

Melvin R. Baldwin

Democrat

1

43.4

1914

Frederick C. Stevens

GOP

9

36.8

1936

William A. Pittenger

GOP

3

35.7

1894

Haldor E. Boen

People's

1

35.6

Average

3.6

53.1

* Arlen Erdahl was outdistricted from the 1st to the 6th District in 1982. ** Tom Hagedorn was outdistricted from the 2nd to the 1st District in 1982. *** Bill Luther was outdistricted from the 6th to the 2nd District in 2002. **** Republican John Alexander failed to win the nomination of his Party so ran on the Independent-Republican ticket instead. Data excludes the seven incumbents in state history who have been defeated in at-large elections (in 1859 and 1932) as well as the two incumbents defeated in a district race in 1934 after having been elected in a statewide election (in 1932). Data compiled by Smart Politics.

1 Comment

Take Walz’s victory in 2008 when he won every county … including some extremely reliable Republican counties … why ? … Your options : Republicans learned to love Tim Walz or, Dr. Brian Davis was such a weak candidate ? Plus, the DFL fielded candidates in every contest … this year there are a few elections where only the MN-GOP is on the ballot ( for example Julie Rosen represents the strong Republican SD-26 district and Paul Torkelson in HD-21-B are unopposed.) Another factor is that in 2008, there was only two candidates on the ballot … this time there are four with Independence Party candidate polling at 5% and has participated in a few debates.

IMO, Walz is in a tight race … the outside money is pouring in … and television commercials are relatively inexpensive in Mankato (which broadcasts into the heart of the Republican strength.)

IMO, making both Oberstar and Walz targets should actually help the DFL and Mark Dayton … he needs strong support from the Iron Range and to win Rochester … by flooding the airwaves with anti-Democrat commercials should counter the apathy that the DFL could have experienced.

Lastly, I expect both incumbents to win, but not nearly by their previous margins … including Walz getting less than 50%. Tom Horner effect could be quite strong providing coattail voting for the IP Congressional candidates … watch HD 24-B for the IP Mark Meyer to garner more votes than the DFL candidate Joan Muth-Milks (where Tony Cornish (MN-GOP) is the incumbent).

Collin Peterson remarked last month that he is leaning to run for reelection to Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2016. If he does and is victorious, he will creep even closer to the top of the list of the longest-serving U.S. Representatives in Minnesota history. The DFL congressman is only the sixth Minnesotan to win at least 13 terms to the U.S. House of the 135 elected to the chamber in state history. Peterson trails 18-term DFLer Jim Oberstar (1975-2011), 16-term Republicans Harold Knutson (1917-1949) and August Andresen (1925-1933; 1935-1958), and 14-term DFLers Martin Sabo (1979-2007) and John Blatnik (1947-1974). Andresen died in office, Sabo and Blatnik retired, and Knutson and Oberstar were defeated at the ballot box in 1948 and 2010 respectively. At 70 years, 7 months, 11 days through Monday, Peterson is currently the ninth oldest Gopher State U.S. Representative in history. DFLer Rick Nolan of the 8th CD is the seventh oldest at 71 years, 1 month, 23 days.

Congressman Nick Rahall's failed bid for a 20th term in West Virginia this cycle, combined with a narrow loss by Nick Casey to Alex Mooney in Shelley Moore Capito's open seat, means that West Virginia Democrats will be shut out of the state's U.S. House delegation for the first time in over 90 years. The Republican sweep by two-term incumbent David McKinley in the 1st CD, Mooney in the 2nd, and Evan Jenkins over Rahall in the 3rd marks the first time the GOP has held all seats in the chamber from West Virginia since the Election of 1920. During the 67th Congress (1921-1923) all six seats from the state were controlled by the GOP. Since the Election of 1922, Democrats have won 76 percent of all U.S. House elections in the Mountain State - capturing 172 seats compared to 54 for the GOP.