To recap a few principles, since B-R provides career games, and then per game points, rebounds, assists and minutes, I have gone with an admittedly highly simplistic look on things with:

Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game

Why use this definition? It's the only data I have easily on hand, which while not a good player rating system is a decent wag for these purposes. Keep in mind the stats are career per game averages so lower than the peak performance years of a player. Moreover, there is also some bias in that using recent years some of the current players may well spike up their career 'standing' with more years under the belt. This is especially true for this article where guys drafted in the last couple of years have not had a chance to establish themselves in many cases, and are still on the upward swing of their career paths.

To calculate value I compare the Player's career stats to the average stats for his draft pick number. For example, top of the charts Gilbert Arenas averages 22.8 pts per game for his career, but the average for a #30 pick (including Gilbert) is just 5.2 pts per game so he is +17.6 points per game in this category.

Best Value Picks 1989-2008

Career Stats

vs. Expected Perf.

Player

Season

Pick

G

Min

PTS

REB

AST

RTG

G

Min

PTS

REB

AST

RTG

Gilbert Arenas

2001

30

431

37.4

22.8

4.2

5.5

32.5

+181

+23.3

+17.6

+1.6

+4.4

+23.6

Carlos Boozer

2002

34

407

32.5

17.0

10.0

2.4

29.4

+270

+19.8

+12.7

+7.9

+1.2

+21.8

Dino Radja

1989

40

224

32.6

16.7

8.4

1.6

26.7

+90

+21.1

+12.4

+6.7

+0.6

+19.7

Kobe Bryant

1996

13

909

36.4

25.0

5.3

4.6

34.9

+462

+13.7

+15.2

+1.6

+2.7

+19.5

Michael Redd

2000

43

550

34.0

20.5

4.1

2.3

26.9

+322

+21.2

+15.6

+2.0

+1.5

+19.0

Manu Ginobili

1999

57

465

27.7

14.7

4.0

3.6

22.3

+422

+22.6

+12.8

+3.0

+3.1

+19.0

Rashard Lewis

1998

32

741

34.5

16.9

5.8

1.8

24.5

+589

+22.8

+12.9

+4.2

+0.8

+17.9

Dirk Nowitzki

1998

9

801

36.5

22.6

8.6

2.7

33.9

+341

+13.4

+12.4

+3.7

+1.1

+17.3

Stephen Jackson

1997

42

575

32.2

15.2

3.8

3.0

22.0

+459

+23.5

+12.1

+2.3

+2.3

+16.7

Cuttino Mobley

1998

41

747

37.0

16.0

3.9

2.7

22.6

+598

+26.9

+12.4

+2.1

+2.0

+16.6

Paul Pierce

1998

10

778

37.5

22.9

6.3

3.9

33.1

+281

+12.9

+12.7

+1.9

+1.7

+16.4

Tony Parker

2001

28

574

33.1

16.2

3.1

5.5

24.8

+324

+19.8

+11.1

+1.2

+4.1

+16.4

Tracy McGrady

1997

9

778

35.0

22.1

6.1

4.7

32.9

+318

+11.9

+11.9

+1.2

+3.1

+16.3

Zach Randolph

2001

19

481

29.9

16.6

8.3

1.6

26.5

+201

+13.4

+10.1

+5.4

+0.6

+16.1

Josh Howard

2003

29

375

32.1

15.4

6.3

1.7

23.4

+115

+20.0

+11.3

+4.0

+0.9

+16.1

Monta Ellis

2005

40

209

31.8

15.7

3.6

3.4

22.7

+75

+20.3

+11.4

+1.9

+2.4

+15.7

Tim Hardaway

1989

14

867

35.3

17.7

3.3

8.2

29.2

+555

+14.2

+8.9

+0.3

+6.3

+15.5

Clifford Robinson

1989

36

1380

30.8

14.2

4.6

2.2

21.0

+1240

+22.0

+10.8

+3.1

+1.5

+15.5

Cedric Ceballos

1990

48

609

24.2

14.3

5.3

1.2

20.8

+506

+15.2

+11.1

+3.3

+0.8

+15.2

Luis Scola

2002

55

127

26.1

10.9

6.9

1.3

19.1

+70

+19.3

+8.6

+5.6

+0.9

+15.1

Dwyane Wade

2003

5

357

37.8

24.5

4.9

6.6

36.0

-195

+9.1

+11.1

+0.0

+3.9

+14.9

Amare Stoudemire

2002

9

423

34.2

21.0

8.9

1.4

31.3

-37

+11.1

+10.8

+4.0

-0.2

+14.7

Ryan Gomes

2005

50

258

28.5

11.0

5.3

1.5

17.8

+209

+23.0

+9.0

+4.3

+1.2

+14.6

Kevin Garnett

1995

5

1043

37.7

20.2

11.1

4.3

35.6

+491

+9.0

+6.8

+6.2

+1.6

+14.5

Steve Nash

1996

15

898

31.0

14.3

3.0

7.9

25.2

+550

+13.6

+7.7

+0.1

+6.5

+14.4

Marc Gasol

2007

48

43

30.4

11.1

7.3

1.6

20.0

-60

+21.4

+7.9

+5.3

+1.2

+14.4

Nick Van Exel

1993

37

880

32.9

14.4

2.9

6.6

23.9

+641

+17.9

+8.7

+0.4

+5.2

+14.3

LeBron James

2003

1

433

40.8

27.4

6.9

6.6

40.9

-122

+7.9

+10.8

-0.9

+3.9

+13.9

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

1996

20

670

29.0

14.5

7.9

1.3

23.7

+417

+12.2

+8.3

+5.2

+0.0

+13.5

Shawn Marion

1999

9

712

37.7

18.0

10.0

2.0

30.0

+252

+14.6

+7.8

+5.1

+0.4

+13.4

Latrell Sprewell

1992

24

913

38.6

18.3

4.1

4.0

26.4

+563

+18.0

+10.4

+1.1

+1.9

+13.4

Ramon Sessions

2007

56

61

24.1

9.5

3.0

5.2

17.7

+10

+17.2

+7.2

+1.7

+4.6

+13.4

Al Jefferson

2004

15

323

27.5

14.6

8.4

1.0

24.0

-25

+10.1

+8.0

+5.5

-0.4

+13.2

Maurice Williams

2003

47

371

29.2

13.0

3.1

4.8

20.9

+226

+17.0

+8.4

+1.1

+3.6

+13.1

Vlade Divac

1989

26

1134

29.8

11.8

8.2

3.1

23.1

+886

+14.0

+5.8

+5.4

+1.8

+13.0

Mehmet Okur

2001

37

496

29.3

13.7

7.2

1.7

22.6

+257

+14.3

+8.0

+4.7

+0.3

+13.0

Mookie Blaylock

1989

12

889

34.9

13.5

4.1

6.7

24.3

+517

+16.1

+6.9

+0.4

+5.4

+12.7

Rafer Alston

1998

39

581

29.0

10.2

2.9

4.9

18.0

+435

+19.6

+7.0

+1.7

+3.9

+12.6

Ron Artest

1999

16

567

34.8

16.0

5.1

3.1

24.2

+203

+16.6

+8.8

+2.3

+1.5

+12.5

David West

2003

18

340

30.0

14.6

6.9

1.6

23.1

+23

+12.6

+8.0

+3.8

+0.7

+12.4

Vince Carter

1998

5

741

37.7

23.7

5.5

4.2

33.4

+189

+9.0

+10.3

+0.6

+1.5

+12.3

Brandon Roy

2006

6

170

36.8

19.1

4.6

5.1

28.8

-236

+11.4

+8.9

+0.0

+3.4

+12.3

Antoine Walker

1996

6

893

35.3

17.5

7.7

3.5

28.7

+487

+9.9

+7.3

+3.1

+1.8

+12.2

Al Harrington

1998

25

690

29.6

13.4

5.8

1.8

21.0

+472

+15.0

+8.2

+3.1

+0.9

+12.2

Toni Kukoc

1990

29

846

26.3

11.6

4.2

3.7

19.5

+586

+14.2

+7.5

+1.9

+2.9

+12.2

Shaquille O'Neal

1992

1

1077

36.0

25.0

11.4

2.6

39.0

+522

+3.1

+8.4

+3.6

-0.1

+12.0

Voshon Lenard

1994

46

565

27.2

11.9

2.8

2.1

16.8

+496

+19.2

+9.0

+1.4

+1.6

+12.0

Sam Cassell

1993

24

993

30.0

15.7

3.2

6.0

24.9

+643

+9.4

+7.8

+0.2

+3.9

+11.9

Jamaal Tinsley

2001

27

398

30.2

10.4

3.4

7.0

20.8

+105

+14.7

+5.1

+0.5

+5.8

+11.4

Kevin Martin

2004

26

281

29.4

16.1

3.6

1.7

21.4

+33

+13.6

+10.1

+0.8

+0.4

+11.3

This list clearly points out some of the outstanding "hits" from deep in the draft. If you can land a star or even superstar from a pick typically expected to fill out the end of the bench then you are doing well. Even with this setup though, 11 of the top 50 "value picks" have been top ten picks, including two number ones!

At the same time, the weakness of our limited stats rating system is in evidence...Antoine Walker as a top value pick? Yuck!

Another interesting fact is that of these top fifty values, 19 or 38% did not go to a US college, but came from either High School (8/50) or from international play (11/50). Now that the high school doors to the NBA are closed and the international game is fully on the radar, we may see less of this trend.

All right, let's look at the other side...the biggest busts.

Worst Value Picks 1989-2008

Career Stats

vs. Expected Perf.

Player

Season

Pick

G

Min

PTS

REB

AST

RTG

G

Min

PTS

REB

AST

RTG

Nikoloz Tskitishvili

2002

5

172

11.3

2.9

1.8

0.7

5.4

-380

-17.4

-10.5

-3.1

-2.0

-15.7

Patrick O'Bryant

2006

9

63

5.0

1.7

1.3

0.3

3.3

-397

-18.1

-8.5

-3.6

-1.3

-13.3

Kwame Brown

2001

1

435

23.0

7.2

5.5

1.1

13.8

-120

-9.9

-9.4

-2.3

-1.6

-13.2

Saer Sene

2006

10

46

5.5

2.2

1.5

0.0

3.7

-451

-19.1

-8.0

-2.9

-2.2

-13.0

Serge Ibaka

2008

24

0

-350

-20.6

-7.9

-3.0

-2.1

-13.0

Jonathan Bender

1999

5

237

15.0

5.6

2.2

0.6

8.4

-315

-13.7

-7.8

-2.7

-2.1

-12.7

Fran Vasquez

2005

11

0

-389

-19.4

-7.5

-3.5

-1.4

-12.4

Shelden Williams

2006

5

167

14.9

4.7

4.2

0.4

9.3

-385

-13.8

-8.7

-0.7

-2.3

-11.8

Michael Olowokandi

1998

1

500

26.3

8.3

6.8

0.7

15.8

-55

-6.6

-8.3

-1.0

-2.0

-11.2

Darko Milicic

2003

2

305

17.6

5.6

4.1

0.7

10.4

-278

-12.0

-7.3

-1.8

-2.1

-11.2

Luke Jackson

2004

10

73

9.9

3.5

1.2

0.8

5.5

-424

-14.7

-6.7

-3.2

-1.4

-11.2

Pavel Podkolzine

2004

21

6

4.7

0.7

1.5

0.0

2.2

-378

-16.1

-7.1

-1.8

-1.9

-10.9

Frederic Weis

1999

15

0

-348

-17.4

-6.6

-2.9

-1.4

-10.8

Greg Oden

2007

1

37

23.2

8.6

7.2

0.7

16.5

-518

-9.7

-8.0

-0.6

-2.0

-10.5

Danny Ferry

1989

2

917

19.8

7.0

2.8

1.3

11.1

+334

-9.8

-5.9

-3.1

-1.5

-10.5

Rich King

1991

14

72

4.3

1.9

1.0

0.3

3.2

-240

-16.8

-6.9

-2.0

-1.6

-10.5

Joseph Forte

2001

21

25

5.0

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.6

-359

-15.8

-6.6

-2.6

-1.2

-10.5

Andrea Bargnani

2006

1

189

25.6

11.5

4.1

1.0

16.6

-366

-7.3

-5.1

-3.7

-1.7

-10.4

Tyrus Thomas

2006

4

188

17.5

6.6

4.4

0.9

11.9

-397

-13.0

-7.1

-1.1

-2.2

-10.3

Adam Morrison

2006

3

117

24.8

9.4

2.5

1.7

13.6

-418

-7.1

-5.8

-2.6

-1.8

-10.2

Marcus Haislip

2002

13

79

10.3

3.6

1.5

0.2

5.3

-368

-12.4

-6.2

-2.2

-1.7

-10.1

Bobby Hurley

1993

7

269

15.5

3.8

1.1

3.3

8.2

-214

-11.3

-7.1

-3.2

+0.7

-9.6

Yaroslav Korolev

2005

12

34

4.9

1.1

0.5

0.4

2.0

-338

-13.9

-5.5

-3.2

-0.9

-9.6

Scott Haskin

1993

14

27

6.9

2.0

2.0

0.2

4.2

-285

-14.2

-6.8

-1.0

-1.7

-9.5

Pervis Ellison

1989

1

474

24.5

9.5

6.7

1.5

17.7

-81

-8.4

-7.1

-1.1

-1.2

-9.3

Rafael Araujo

2004

8

139

11.4

2.8

2.8

0.3

5.9

-258

-11.5

-6.5

-1.1

-1.6

-9.3

Dontae Jones

1996

21

15

6.1

2.9

0.6

0.3

3.8

-369

-14.7

-4.9

-2.7

-1.6

-9.3

Kirk Haston

2001

16

27

5.0

1.2

1.0

0.3

2.5

-337

-13.2

-6.0

-1.8

-1.3

-9.2

Julian Wright

2007

13

77

10.7

3.7

1.9

0.7

6.3

-370

-12.0

-6.1

-1.8

-1.2

-9.1

Casey Shaw

1998

37

9

1.6

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.5

-230

-13.4

-5.5

-2.2

-1.4

-9.1

Antonio Daniels

1997

4

825

23.2

7.8

1.9

3.5

13.2

+240

-7.3

-5.9

-3.6

+0.4

-9.0

Yinka Dare

1994

14

110

9.1

2.1

2.6

0.0

4.7

-202

-12.0

-6.7

-0.4

-1.9

-9.0

Efthimi Rentzias

1996

23

35

4.1

1.5

0.7

0.2

2.4

-333

-15.3

-5.3

-2.4

-1.2

-9.0

William Avery

1999

14

142

8.5

2.7

0.7

1.4

4.8

-170

-12.6

-6.1

-2.3

-0.5

-8.9

Mark Sanford

1997

30

0

-250

-14.1

-5.2

-2.6

-1.1

-8.9

Joel Freeland

2006

30

0

-250

-14.1

-5.2

-2.6

-1.1

-8.9

Petteri Koponen

2007

30

0

-250

-14.1

-5.2

-2.6

-1.1

-8.9

J.R. Giddens

2008

30

0

-250

-14.1

-5.2

-2.6

-1.1

-8.9

DeSagana Diop

2001

8

471

14.6

2.1

3.9

0.4

6.4

+74

-8.3

-7.2

+0.0

-1.5

-8.8

Shaun Vandiver

1991

25

0

-218

-14.6

-5.2

-2.7

-0.9

-8.8

Luther Wright

1993

18

15

6.1

1.3

0.7

0.0

2.0

-302

-11.3

-5.3

-2.4

-0.9

-8.7

Troy Bell

2003

16

6

5.7

1.8

0.7

0.7

3.2

-358

-12.5

-5.4

-2.1

-0.9

-8.5

Tony Battie

1997

5

721

22.6

6.5

5.5

0.7

12.7

+169

-6.1

-6.9

+0.6

-2.0

-8.4

Brandon Armstrong

2001

23

108

6.5

2.2

0.6

0.2

3.0

-260

-12.9

-4.6

-2.5

-1.2

-8.4

Deon Thomas

1994

28

0

-250

-13.3

-5.1

-1.9

-1.4

-8.4

Tiago Splitter

2007

28

0

-250

-13.3

-5.1

-1.9

-1.4

-8.4

Ed O'Bannon

1995

9

128

16.1

5.0

2.5

0.8

8.3

-332

-7.0

-5.2

-2.4

-0.8

-8.3

Cal Bowdler

1999

17

142

9.7

3.0

1.9

0.2

5.1

-255

-10.6

-5.1

-2.0

-1.2

-8.3

Shawn Respert

1995

8

172

13.7

4.9

1.3

1.0

7.2

-225

-9.2

-4.4

-2.6

-0.9

-8.0

Roy Marble

1989

23

29

6.7

1.9

1.1

0.4

3.4

-339

-12.7

-4.9

-2.0

-1.0

-8.0

Now 13 of the worst 50 values were drafted in 2006 or later so have a chance for redemption, and Oden, Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, and Julian Wright all look likely to get off this list in the coming years.

Another 10 of the 50 are players who have never played in the NBA, mostly because they've stayed in their own countries.

That leaves us with the likes of Tskitishvili whose career 3 pts/game average from a #5 pick does underwhelm, and Kwame Brown who still of course plays in the NBA but looks like a dim possibility of raising those career numbers beyond where they are now.

Some guys like Bender can plead injury excuses, but for the most part these are indeed picks most of the teams would rather have back again for do-overs!

Another thought I had for looking at both this player value and team drafting was to compare the pick taken to the one immediately following! In those cases you would see some of the misses like, going back even further, Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan say...or for what looks increasingly to be the case, Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.