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Hollywood: Is 'Godzilla' The 'John Carter' Of 2014?

I wrote a prediction story on SiliconANGLE about the flops of 2014 in Hollywood. I got lots of emails on one of the movies Godzilla. It seems many in the “crowd” think of all the predictions, “Godzilla” will flop the most. After the megaton flop known as John Carter imploded harder than any movie in recent memory in 2012, costing Disney a $200M write down, several supposed “blockbusters” faced a similar fate at the box office in 2013.

In fact, in 2013, some of the biggest, most costliest misfires in cinema history were released, leading to over half a billion dollars in writeoffs for major studios. Led by such massive flops as “The Lone Ranger” ($190M writeoff), sci-fi disasters “R.I.P.D.,”and “After Earth,” the poorly received “White House Down,” and most recently the samurai CGI schlockfest “47 Ronin,” which had a negative cost of at least $175M before marketing is factored in and yet only opened at $20M, it was a year that prompted industry legends such as Steven Spielberg to say:

“There’s eventually going to be a big meltdown. There’s going to be an implosion where three or four or maybe even a half-dozen of these mega-budgeted movies go crashing into the ground and that’s going to change the paradigm…”

When it comes to box office success, trending on Twitter doesn’t translate to packing butts in seats. “Scott Pilgrim” was trending on Twitter and that bombed. Justin Beiber has 48 million followers on Twitter and yet seemingly none of them showed up for his latest theatrical masterpiece. The correlation of Twitter activity to theatrical receipts has yet to manifest itself in any repeatable, tangible way. There is a very high level of variability when it comes to social media impact on box office results. In our analysis “Hunger Games” was able to harness the power of social media to its advantage while other films have either generated social media buzz and fell apart at the box office or screwed up their social media initiatives altogether. ”John Carter,” for example, was a social media disaster that stumbled throughout its entire campaign.

Which brings us to 2014, and examining which movies are positioned to be the biggest bombs. Which movies will “go crashing into the ground” leading to the inevitable industry-wide paradigm change of VOD available day and date with wide theatrical releases as Spielberg and George Lucas prognosticate?

Before we begin, it’s important to keep in mind that studios only recoup approx. 50% of theatrical grosses, the rest being split with theater owners. This means that for a film that has a negative cost of $200M (the cost of the actual film production) and $100M in associated marketing costs (premieres, ads, events, airfare, etc.), grossing $300M at the global box office means the movie earned half of its total negative costs back, or $150M. Such a movie would need to make $600M theatrically to break even. Of course, the strength of digital downloads, video streaming, upfront cable and TV network sales and physical format distribution (a dying revenue stream) can most definitely help make up for a theatrical shortfall, but no studio greenlights a $200M summer movie with business plans that call for generating half that amount at the global box office. Which is why the industry change of making movies available on VOD concurrently with theatrical releases is inevitable as it would allow studios to recoup investments more quickly, particularly for a movie with horrendous word of mouth, as many of these recent mega flops have had.

So for 2014, what are the surefire bets? What are the riskiest movie ventures out there? Who is approaching social media the right way? And what genres are still marketable?

Following are our predictions and analysis for the Top Three biggest flops of 2014, in order of magnitude (net loss):

1)Godzilla. Hands down, “Godzilla” will be the biggest box office bomb of 2014. Godzilla as a character is box office poison. The fact is the last 3 Godzilla movies released domestically have flopped: “Godzilla 1985” made $4M; “Godzilla 2000” made a whopping $10M and the last attempt at a Hollywood-style big budget remake, also called “Godzilla” bombed so bad that its lead toy licensee went bankrupt. Had the movie made a profit the studio wouldn’t have just let the rights expire in 2003 without even attempting a reboot or sequel. They had 5 years to make a new film based on this property yet they passed. Think about it—Sony, the studio that greenlights sequels to most anything—”Resident Evil 6″ is on the horizon and don’t forget about “Underworld 5″—walked away from investing another cent in Godzilla.

Moreover, the last Godzilla movie produced was a decade ago—“Godzilla: Final Wars”—and that bombed so hard that the studio, Toho, Co. Ltd., put the entire franchise on ice. That movie cost $20M and made $12M in Japan and had the lowest admission numbers for a Godzilla movie in nearly 30 years. Following that bomb, the film’s director, Ryuhei Kitamura, has been cranking out budget-rate horror slasher flicks ever since—choice fare like “Midnight Meat Train” and “No One Lives.”

Aside from Godzilla, the giant monster genre as a whole is anemic. “King Kong” flopped, despite having Peter Jackson at the helm; “Pacific Rim” bombed, despite having umpteen giant monsters battling on screen; “Gamera the Brave,” about a lumbering giant turtle monster, delivered weak numbers at the box office; and if you go to the outer edges of the giant monster genre, recent films like “Jack the Giant Slayer” bombed and “Walking with Dinosaurs” flopped as well.

The bottom line is if Peter Jackson couldn’t turn “King Kong” into a mega-size box office hit, the chances that an indie film director—Gareth Edwards—attempting to make a big budget giant monster action film like “Godzilla” a global, profitable hit are essentially nonexistent.

The $160M “Godzilla” is also sandwiched between some of the summer’s sure-fire mega hits, with Sony’s the “Amazing Spider-Man 2” coming at it with strong tailwinds just two weeks before, and the double team of Adam Sandler’s latest summer comedy “Blended” and Fox’s “X-Men: Days of Future Past,” opening just one week later with strong headwinds pointing right at “Godzilla.” “Godzilla” will essentially be getting hit from all sides, and theater owners will be allocating more screens for “X-Men” and “Spider-Man” rather than take a chance on empty theaters screening “Godzilla.”

It’s also worth noting that the marketing to date for “Godzilla” has been rather weak (and nearly invisible). This appears to be continuing—and part of the plan—as Warner Bros. has elected not to feature a “Godzilla” trailer during the upcoming Super Bowl, while “Amazing Spider-Man 2” and “X-Men” are there in full force.

Considering that “Godzilla” is the last film that Warner Bros. is cofinancing with former producing partner, Legendary Pictures, we believe that Godzilla’s box office results aren’t exactly WB’s top priority at this time. Especially considering that the studio is opening up an Adam Sandler summer comedy only one week after Godzilla’s release. It should also be noted that WB is only financing 25% of “Godzilla,” so its exposure is minimal. And since the two companies have effectively divorced, we don’t expect a “full court press” on the marketing front from WB, who is distributing worldwide except for Japan.

2)Robocop. Sony already tried to take a classic early ’90s R-Rated sci-fi gem and turn it into a $125M watered down PG-13 CGI headache. It was called “Total Recall” and it bombed, making only $58M domestically. Ironically the director tried to blame Arnold Schwarzenegger for the film’s failure. Now Sony is trying the same formula with one of the greatest R-rated sci-fi films ever, “Robocop.” Water it down, eliminate the grittiness, delete the intense storytelling and high octane action that Paul Verhoeven so masterfully put on screen back in 1987 and attempt to sell it to the masses as an Iron Man/Transformers clone. This movie’s trailers are so bad they make Ishtar look like Oscar material. Plagued with bad publicity from the onset, and various reports where the director is unhappy with the work in progress—referring to making Robocop as “hell”—and you have a recipe for a very high priced box office bomb. Set to be released in February after being delayed at least once, the $120M “Robocop” production will be met with seats as empty as the movie itself. The marketing is right on one aspect—audiences will remain “robophobic” and stay away from this stinker. Roboflop, er, “Robocop,” opens on Feb. 14—making it the least desirable movie for a Valentine’s Day at the theater that we can think of.

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I’m sorry but what? The Hollywood version of Godzilla was made on a budget of 130 mil and made over 350 million dollars (which by today’s standards is a lot more), so I fail to see the “bombing so hard” in that. Plus Godzilla Final Wars had a high budget and was only shown in the Asian market, of course it wasn’t going to succeed. Get your facts right next time.

Sorry Flynn23 facts are correct. First the 130m number is lower than reality that is the number the studio used which is always lower than reality (std hollywood metric game). Plus they lose 50% off the top plus the premium for the oversees cut. So it’s a loss.

I’m sorry, please enlighten me as to how exactly is less than half-done “research” supposed to lead to “correct facts”. Besides, the idiot who wrote the article used examples where the release of the motion picture(s) was nowhere near worldwide, but localized to one, maybe two regions. And honestly, the fact that I can’t see any comment section on the page where the fool “predicts” the flop, presumably because he knows how wrong he is, and he’ll get thoroughly screwed over for that. And also, I expected more from an article on Forbes, not this copy-paste business.

John, I believe your figure of 50% going to the studio is incorrect in the case of Godzilla ’98. I believe Sony got 70% for the first couple of weeks of release. And the lack of a sequel was partly attributable to disappointment over the box office (certainly compared to Devlin and Emmerich’s previous film Independence Day) but also to the critical and fan hatred for the film. I sense that the anticipation for Godzilla 2014 is more widespread and less hype-driven that it was in 1998. Pacific Rim may have set the stage for Godzilla, and I expect that Godzilla will do better, but of course, it depends partly on fan reaction. I know the fans don’t make or break a film, but look at it this way. The fans and critics hated Godzilla ’98 and it still made about $350 million worldwide. IF the fans give Edwards’ Godzilla strong word of mouth, it can’t help but do a lot better.

You must have an interesting definition of the words “flop” and “bomb” considering Pacific Rim and King Kong both pulled in around half a billion worldwide. Hate how freely those words are tossed around. Godzilla will surprise many, easily beat budget and be a sleeper smash. Count it.

you apparently have only payed attention to people having no faith. Godzilla was one of the most popular things at comic-con. You also should pay more attention to the cast and crew who praise the films. you also have neglected mentioning the original’s success. You also haven’t mentioned any viral campaign’s. It doesn’t need to make the most money to be a good movie.

“130m number is lower than reality that is the number the studio used which is always lower than reality (std hollywood metric game).”

That’s not a fact. It’s an assumption no matter how educated you may like it to sound. You also failed to address where advertising really falls under: It’s often not the film’s job to make that money back, but the merchandising.

You also decided to not include success stories behind mega-budget movies with supposedly similar starts. Batman Begins made $374 million worldwide on a budget of $205 million. By your logic that’s a loss, but neither Warner Brothers or Legendary saw it that way. The percentage of return was similar to 1997′s Batman and Robin, which was deemed low enough to put the franchise on hiatus.

You also failed to address that Godzilla Final Wars was released theatrically to an Asian only market. Indeed it did flop, but prior entries, like Godzilla, Mothra, King Ghidorah made $20 million at the box office on a $9 million budget. Toho deemed it a huge success and the film was the reason three more movies were produced.

Before the 1998 movie, Toho’s last was the 1995 Godzilla vs. Destroyah which grossed $22 million on a $10 million budget and was the number 1 Japanese film for the calendar year. It was not, however, the highest grossing of the 1990s movies.

Meanwhile, Godzilla toy-lines and merchandise has been in and out for the last decade. Unable to leave the market for good even after being considered “poison” 15 years ago.

Some of your supposed facts are one sided and others simply don’t add up when other films are concerned. With your logic Iron Man (2008), Batman Begins (2005), X-Men First Class (2011), The Prestige (2006), The Wolverine (2013) and many others are flops. Unless of course they aren’t completely responsible for ad returns, which is often a two way street between film studios and outside parties. Something that was also not accounted for.

You must be joking. Godzilla wasn’t just trending, it was the WORLD’S 3rd most searched on Google on Dec. 10, 2013. That says the movie will not flop on its own. Godzilla (1998) didn’t flop either, it was just poorly received. King Kong and pacific Rim DID NOT flop, PR just underperformed domestically, and performed better than expected internationally. That was due to being new material, Godzilla has brand name recognition. And quit being so damn ignorant, you mentioned the shitty movies and their shitty performances without stating that the original and others like GMK and the entire Heisei series did very well, especially considering they were only released in Japan. Also, Godzilla 2000 did not underperform, it did well enough to spawn five more movies. Also, go to any website and look for the movies that are at the top of the “Want List.” Godzilla is in the top 5 for literally EVERY ONE OF THEM. Do some goddamn research.

Notice that he did not mentioned how much money the 1998 American film made at the box office. and Godzilla 1985 and 2000 were only theatrically release in just the US not world wide. this new film is being released world wide. so don’t take peoples words guys when they only done half of search.

Speaking of monster movies, you did not mention Cloverfield, which had a budget of 25 million and made 40 million on its opening weekend already. And that was just in North America. Worldwide it grossed approximately 100 million dollars, the first movie in 2008 to reach that mark. That doesn’t sound like a flop to me.

i find it offensive that you would call the newly rebooted Spider Man franchise a ” sure fire mega hit ” when it’s clearly a quick repackage designed to squeeze nothing but dollars out of an ignorant metro millennial crowd. a 4 year gap is way too short to validate a franchise reboot.

the biggest problem previous Godzilla films had is the studios never took the subject matter seriously. while Cloverfield divided Kaiju audiences, it did provide a more serious take on the material that shows that when done right, giant monster movies can pay off ( budget $25 million – made $170 million + ).

in the same way Batman has become an adult franchise, i think this next Godzilla film will to. movies these days have an overall effect of disappointment as being commercial holds sway over everything, including artist vision. i don’t hold my breath anymore but i’m feeling like i want to with this one.

John, I’m not sure you understand marketing 101. If you have a crappy product, your going to get crappy sales. Even worse, I don’t think you have done your homework. A few of your examples “flopped” because they were not good products; Green Lantern, 47 Ronin, and After Earth all scored low on Rotten Tomatoes: 26%, 13%, and 11% respectively. And as Christian Stump mentioned King Kong and Pacific Rim did very well world-wide, which is the market studios care about (they both also scored well on the tomatometer 84% and 71%).

I hope on the weekend of May 16th, when Godzilla 2014 comes out, you will remind us how wrong you were about this article. And how wrong you were about Godzilla.

you called that blatant money grab of a reboot ” a sure fire mega hit ” ? this new Spiderman franchise is just a corporate plunder on the new bunch of metro 16 year olds who were too busy looking at their samsungs to noticed that we only just finished watching a franchise called Spiderman like 4 years before.

Batman has become an adult franchise like the comics did. Godzilla has always suffered from not being given the same treatment which typically translates into a lack of interest that rightfully proven with each release. this one is gonna be different.

I disagree about “The Godzilla 2014 Film”. I think it will do exceptionally well a top 5 if not top 2 or 3 film of the year, the approach that director Gareth Edwards is taking is original nothing comical or badly written like the last 3 films, especially the 98′ film starring Matthew Broderick and I have nothing against him as a actor, it was just the film felt kinda of comical, not so serious with him in that film, but anyways I think the story will be well written and the CGI “Special Effects” will be awesome and the acting will bring suspense, this movies seems to be much darker more serious then the last three films which in end will do this film some justice and bring Godzilla back on top, but again that’s how I see it playing out. As for the other 2 films the new Robocop and Guardians of the Galaxy, I see Robocop having troubles the story or acting may play issues with this film, the special effects will be just fine I believe, but I really can’t tell you how well that movie plays out or any film for that manner and as for Guardians of the Galaxy it’s a brand new film, new story and anything new is exciting for me I might watch in the theaters or wait for it on dvd, Robocop I’ll just wait for dvd. Thanks for your article

Godzilla 2014 probably won’t flop. It might gross at least $150,000,000+. Its budget is $160 million. The movie may not gross $200 million because it’s facing tough competition with The Amazing Spider-man 2 and X-men Days of the Future Past in the same month. If the movie flop, the studio is to blame for scheduling Godzilla in the wrong date.

Advertisement and the lack of a SB commercial are Furrier’s only good points as per Godzilla. WB has seemed pretty tight fisted with marketing thus far. A blitz starting in March would counter that. His examples of other giant monster films doing poorly are bunk. G 84 and G 2000 were toho throw-aways that no one except diehards went to see. He makes a wrong statement about Final Wars which Toho had declared their final G film before they made it. As per the other examples he only took into account domestic box office, cause if you count foreign, you can’t call them flops. G 98 broke even domestically and more than doubled profits with foreign sales. Domestically KK broke even and admittedly Pac Rim was a domestic failure, but KK and pac rim more than doubled it’s profits with foreign. Because of that Pac Rim is getting a sequel. Money is money. Jack the Giant Slayer was a POS, more in line with actual duds like RIPD, John Carter and The Lone Ranger. Even Man of Steel just barely earned past it’s budget domestically. According Furrier that could be considered a flop. One glaring omission from the Kaiju film list, because it would have contradicted his point, is Cloverfield which was a major hit with the profit it made. I believe what will make or break the new G 2014 film is its ratings. If it gets north of 75-80% on rotten tomatoes it will at least make 200 m domestically.

As per Robocop, who cares it will be a February POS and I believe Guardians of the Galaxy will do better than people expect if, again, it gets north of 75-80% on RT.

Godzilla fan boys need to wake up – the market for Godzilla doesn’t exist. Let’s face the facts and stop whining and living in an alternate reality. Godzilla is a dead franchise. It’s on the scrap heap in Japan and everywhere else. There’s been 10 years of nothing. Companies don’t wait 10 years to produce a new product for a market that’s viable. This is a movie in search of an audience.

You make me laugh. Godzilla was the 3rd most searched topic on Google. They’ve been quiet because it gets people riled up. You can’t just throw everything out there. Look on any website with polls for best movies of 2014, Godzilla wins 99% of them.

Nothing has come out in 10 years because TOHO planned it that way because the franchise was OVER SATURATED and needed a rest. They were releasing movies like crazy. And you dont release that many movies, alongside a shit ton of tie in products, if the franchise was not making them money at the time.

This is the first attempt at making an ACCURATE big budget American godzilla film, with a lot of positive buzz on the films potential quality. You really cannot compare the past.

All of these responses are from G fans. A fan base you don’t want to rile up. One thing that is never mentioned is star power. A generation of Breaking Bad fans may want to come see Walter White cook meth and take on monsters. Also, the budget is quite reasonable for a film like this. Well south of 200 m.

This is one that I’m going to have to save and come back to later because I honestly believe that Godzilla is going to be a Success. Several websites have listed it as one of the most anticipated films of 2014. I’ve also seen polls showing that out of all the films coming out this year Godzilla is the one they’re most interested in. Everything I’ve read about the film from websites, t.v., magazine articles, and internet critics/celebrities (You can laugh but their opinions carry a surprising amount of weight for some people) have been nothing but positive. Many are already praising the choice of actors (Bryan Cranston being the most talked about because of his fame from Breaking Bad) and the darker direction that the film seems to be taking. Also, the word of mouth from Comic Con and the Godzilla Experience they set up over there was very positive.

However, you make a lot of good points. Godzilla has some serious competition that month. If anything, I believe the movie will be critically successful, and hopefully Good word of mouth will bring more people in to see it and at least make it a modest success.

king kong wasn’t a flop it made over five hundred million it under performed but wasn’t a flop guardians of the galaxy is a little different but so was star wars when it was first made and everyone thought that would flop the 98 godzilla was terrible and suffered from word of mouth the latest Japanese godzilla movies used shoty [by today standards] effects but godzilla will probably be a hit as will guardians of the galaxy robocop though will fail hard

The last few Godzilla few bombed?? Seriously?? Godzilla 1985 made $4million, but was given limited release in 1985 by New World who invested little in the picture but a quick dubbing and editing as well as acquisition fees. Director Tony Randel was quoted in the book “Japan’s Favorite Mon-Star” as saying it was one of the company’s most profitable films.

Godzilla: Final Wars didn’t kill the series in Japan, as it was well known even before release that after the film Godzilla would take a decade long hiatus.

Godzilla 2000 did gross over $10 million, but it’s not the bomb you claim. Considering it was released in over 1,000 theaters nationwide and TriStar only paid for a quick edit and dubbing job, it still had a fair showing. Hardly a disaster, unless you’re seriously treading in hyperbole.

The 1998 Godzilla is an easy target to pick on. It was overhyped and not very good. But good enough to gross over $70 million opening weekend and $130 million domestically. Add in foreign grosses, along with the numerous merchandising revenue, it ended up in the black. Which is why Tri Star was proceeding with a sequel–but 9/11 put the brakes on it (source G-Fan magazine).

None of these films come close to approaching the debacle that was John Carter. It’s also inaccurate to use King Kong or Pacific Rim to justify an opinion that Godzilla will fail. King Kong lacks the fan base of Godzilla, and no one really was familiar with Pacific Rim and lacked any emotional investment in the film. As far the marketing, the filmmakers are probably learning a lesson from the 1998 film. Remember when it seemed 10 minutes couldn’t go by w/o an ad for Godzilla? It just built up the audiences hopes to be crushed by an inferior film. This time they’re wisely playing it low key, probably until March. A lot of films you listed in your article are on a fools errand to the box office. Godzilla isn’t one of them.

Honestly Peter M, Godzilla is a dead franchise???? What?? A studio would invest $160 million and hire top notch actors for a summer tentpole film on a dead franchise? The trailer for Godzilla shot to be the #1 trailer at the time it was released. Please return to 1970, where your consciousness apparently resides.

KING KONG earned $218m domestic and $550m worldwide on a $207m budget. It may have “disappointed” on opening weekend (which is where your article came from after a mere $66m five-day debut), but overall it was a solid hit that was only retroactively declared a disappointment because pre-release hype and superb early reviews had the media convinced that it was somehow going to challenge TITANIC for the box office crown. PACIFIC RIM was not a smash, but it earned $400m worldwide on a $190m budget, which is basically break-even. And yeah, by today’s standards, GODZILLA was a solid hit.

Please keep in mind that people lost their jobs over this disaster. Just go ask Chris Lee, former President of Production for TriStar Pictures, how much of a “solid hit” Godzilla was…I’m sure he’ll tell you how it advanced his career greatly at Sony…if Godzilla 1998 was such a “solid hit,” then why did Sony never green light a sequel or a reboot and simply let the rights expire in 2003, as this article points out? Half a decade and they couldn’t get a sequel/reboot out to a “solid hit?” And how do you calculate that $379M was a hit? Sony spent at least $200M on nonstop global marketing for a year-long sustained campaign–the likes of which we have yet to see again–which even if we go by their bogus “$130M” budget number means the film cost over $300M just to get out the door. Wait, factor in the tens of millions they spent in pre-production with Jan DeBont, Stan Winston, Rossio and Elliott that all got scrapped before Emmerich and team signed up and the loss gets even bigger. If the box office returns added up, like any business venture, no matter the time, now or 20 years ago, Sony would have made a follow up movie. And “a solid hit” doesn’t drive toy companies out of business and leave Taco Bell with enough plastic dreck to fill a football stadium. Batman Begins moved toys. Godzilla was such a solid hit that toy retailers refused to even accept any more toys after the movie was released…

You are yet another egnoramous on the face of the land. The only big budget american ‘Godzilla” though a big disapointment to G fans was a fianancial success. Perhaps you should take a moment to investigate this so you won’t be such an obvious dim wit. Makes me wonder if there are equally bombastic imbeciles writing Forbes major articals. If anything people are getting bored with Spiderman. Discussing failures of Japanese movies not released in the US is absurd, as is your long winded opinon. Forbes is wasting their money paying you to write articals. So congragulations as the FOUNDER and Fuckhead of siliconangle.com.

“The trailer recorded 4.8 million views on YouTube, according to technology company Zefr, which tracks the numbers. The flame-throwing monster’s preview has notched 27.8 million total views since its release on Dec. 10.”

And yes, I will be around to this page once “Godzilla” crushes the box office at the number one spot to say “I told ya so!”

I cant speak to the other films, but boy are you wrong about Godzilla. I don’t know whether the film will be a hit or not, but the reasons you give as to why it wont be are very off base. As others have stated, Godzilla 1998 would be a hit by todays standards…this despite some of the WORST reviews and word of mouth for a big blockbuster ive ever seen. Folks were excited about the idea of a big budget production of a Godzilla movie, it just simply didnt deliver (the film barely had anything to do with Godzilla btw). And Godzilla 1985 was a very limited release – it only opened up the same year in 235 theaters (for comparison, Back to the Future opened up in 1,420 ). 1985 wasnt expected to be a hit, which is why New World paid very little to release it in the US. And that movie was a toho produced man in rubber suit production – and while I loved that stuff when I was a kid, that type of movie would never work nowadays in America. Godzilla 2000 was also the man in rubber suit type, which was even harder to accept in the year 2000. AND, it was released by Tristar after everyone hated 1998. And if I remember correctly, advertising for G 2000 was very limited. I saw it on opening day, and it was only playing on one screen with only a handful of showings a day. Again, it wasnt expected to be a hit. G2000 and G1985 were basically niche films, and they cannot be compared to US made films.

So basically – there has been only one big budget American Godzilla film – and despite being a terrible film that was bashed relentlessly by critics, godzilla fans, and general audiences when it came out- it would still be a hit by todays standards.

Fast forward to today, and there has been a lot of buzz about Godzilla ever since footage shocked audiences at the 2012 SDCC – and the first teaser trailer that was released has been blowing up online (for example: the trailer was the most-viewed coming attraction on YouTube for the week ending Jan. 26 – despite being online since early december and having to compete with newer trailers) Yes, Warner Bros didnt buy a superbowl ad – but its not buying ads for ANY of its films apparently. I expect the marketing to pick up in the next few weeks…it doesnt come out until mid may!

Again – maybe Godzilla wont make a lot of money. But we simply cannot predict that based on the previous American releases.

You also mention Gamera the Brave, which I dont believe was released theatrically in the US at all. King Kong – the link you provided was from the first few days of release…in the end it made around 2.5 times its own budget despite being incredible expensive movie (207 mill, 247 mill adjusted for inflation) that was 3 hours long. You also mention Pacific Rim, and while this is a very different movie from Godzilla 2014, its probably the farest comparison. But Pac Rim did fairly well worldwide despite being an original property that was released in a crowded summer. The other movies you mention really are a stretch to compare to godzilla….

So in conclusion – who knows how Godzill will do, but your arguments comparing those films are not very strong, and its too early to say marketing is non existant, especially considering the positive buzz online.

Well, whilst Robocop wasn’t a roaring success, it was a relative success for a pre-summer flick and probably made back its budget (even factoring advertising costs). Well seems your predictions were way off. While I am not so optimistic about Godzilla, I don’t see it ‘bombing’. It will not be a huge success but I do see it making north of 400 million.

Guardians of the Galaxy gonna be a bomb? Well I am pretty damn sure it will at least recuperate its budget and prob beyond that.

Your definitions of ‘bombed’ and ‘flopped’ in the box office is so warped that I feel that you have little business writing an article like this. Movies like Kong and PacRim which make south of 2x their budget are moderate successes, not flops. Sure GtB was a flop, Final Wars was a flop, but Kong, I really dunno what you are smoking,

I rarely comment on articles like this but wow, just wow. I don’t think I have ever read such a load of rubbish. Well congratulations, you did get me to attach my Facebook account to Forbes so I can follow the comments and come back and laugh at you when Godzilla smashes the box offices :).

You are dead wrong on Godzilla and we’ll see in a few more days. Some of your points make sense, but you’re completely missing the amount of buzz and interest this movie is generating. Being sandwiched between Spider-Man and X-Men was one of my biggest concerns, but Spidey has already dropped out of the lead spot and honestly, all of the last several X-Men movies have under-performed at the box office. Godzilla is something different and not just another superhero sequel. Fans have wanted to see Godzilla like THIS for a long time and anyone following the movie knows how much love and attention they’re giving this film, not to mention that it has a modest budget for this type of film and all early reviews have been glowing. King Kong comparisons are pointless because all Kong movies are mostly exact remakes of the original story that we all know ends the same way. Pacific Rim does not have the name recognition of Godzilla and an already built in fan base. Your point about American releases not doing so well is also a very weak point. Godzilla 2000 was a limited release with NO actual marketing behind it. There are a ton of people who still don’t even know it existed. And foreign films never do well in the US, unfortunately. You have some points that on the surface would make sense, but you’re laughably out of touch on this one. This prediction will be the biggest bomb of the year.

Oh well, guess this is turning out to be totally wrong. Godzilla did $9.3 million last night, one of the biggest late-night openings for a non-sequel ever, (and it beat Spiderman 2) and is now projected to do over $70 million this weekend. The movie is going to be a huge hit, one of the biggest of the year. Oh, and it’s really good, too.

Don’t mean to troll, oh wait I do mean to troll. Anymore wise predictions Nostradumbarce. Ha! Yeah cool story bro. Just because through personal bias you do not appreciate what Gojira came to symbolize, doesn’t mean it will fail.

It’s good to know that John Furrier is the grand master of box office predictions. How did he put it? “Hands down, Godzilla will be the biggest box office bomb of 2014″. We are all wrong sometimes but “Hands Down”, that’s the level of confidence he has. Final numbers aren’t in but The G looks to take in over $90M this opening weekend. His #2 was Robocop? It failed in the US but with over $240 worldwide it isn’t as bad as Pompeii or Transcendence. Don’t you have foresight? Why didn’t you see those coming? If I was an expert like this, I personally would stay far from making box office predictions in the future!

John, I almost went by what you wrote and did not go see Godzilla. I hate using my hard earned money on “flops”, when i could be drinking Cosmo’s or Martini’s with it. I guess all the people in flyover country didn’t read your Forbes review. You showed them!

Man that was one sad and sorry ass prediction. I guess the ‘almost non-existent chance that an unknown GE has of making a blockbuster’ comment came back to bite a certain Forbes ‘contributor’ in the butt.

Mr. Furrier, Well now. I think you have some explaining to do. I’ll let your Forbes colleague explain: http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/05/18/box-office-godzilla-scores-monstrous-93m-weekend/ So, Godzilla 2014 … apparently… is… NOT… the “John Carter of 2014.” In fact, in its first 3 days, it has made more than John Carter’s entire run. Oh, please expect major returns for Godzilla when it opens in China (June 2014) and Japan (July 2014). By the way, some of my colleagues will shortly be calling out your failed prediction in the near future. Now… I have a question for you: Are you man enough to eat crow and retract your statements publicly or not ? I’m very curious, although I’m not holding my breadth.

So far so good on Godzilla. It is better than any Godzilla movie other than the 1954 classic. Even better, NO Matthew Broderick. Let’s see how it it does over the summer. I’m gonna guess ( not hands down predict, because that would be silly) around $600M maybe even break the top 50 highest grossing movies http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2014/05/18/box-office-godzilla-scores-monstrous-93m-weekend/

Welp, that didn’t turn out too well for you, did it? I hope your thumb is a lot closer to the pulse of non-entertainment business than it is the movie industry. You probably shouldn’t write any more articles about the movie industry, as a matter of fact you should probably stay away from the entertainment industry all together. It apparently isn’t your forte. The only thing this article managed to do was show how out of touch and inept you are when it comes to predicting and analyzing what the public wants to consume for entertainment. This usually goes against my grain, but I’ll give you some free advice. Since you apparently need it when it comes to the entertainment industry, The Man of Steel sequel, The Justice League movie, Pretty much any movie developed by Marvel Studios, the next Star Wars film, and finally the NEXT Godzilla film, are all probably safe bets at the moment. (But the superhero movies as a genre might be running a bit thin with the public right now.)

Godzilla was the second highest grossing film of the year so far, it has already been greenlit for a sequel.

Robocop was a huge hit internationally, making around $180 mill and will likely also get a sequel.

Guardians has yet to come out. But I will say that Green Lantern didn’t flop because it was “too abstract” it flopped because it was a terrible movie. Marvel have already made a hit movie about the Norse God of Thunder fighting space Elves, I think saying anything in their canon is “too abstract” hardly counts as reason to suggest it will flop, it’ll be interesting to see if you have 3 for 3 come august.

Mr. Furrier is way off here. The prediction of a “flop” based on Pacific Rim, King Kong, Walking With Dinosaurs, etc., doesn’t even begin to consider the thirst that Godzilla fans have had for a movie “done right.” Edwards vision, as sold to us in trailers, promised a serious, non-cheesy bad-ass Godzilla movie with state of the art special effects. In a world of tired superhero franchises, Godzilla couldn’t have come at a better time. The numbers are in and I was happy to see the film was not in anyway a “flop” and has surpassed all predictions. Sometimes you have to look past numbers and box office history– You have to take in the big picture and that is to see that Godzilla still has major street credibility and as the numbers now show, there were huge audiences that came out to see a 60 year old pop cultural legend on the big screen. And finally with all of the awe and spectacle that Roland Emmerich failed to produce back in ’98, coupled with the attention to detail that Godzilla fans demand. They want exactly what Edwards produced, not a Lizard/T-Rex cheesy Hollywood movie with far too much Jurassic Park influence.

Dear Forbes, If you are looking for any new contributors just give me a call. I am an expert at both googling subjects I know nothing about and am also certified in both copying AND pasting. Sincerely, Johnny ” Box-Office Bomb” Furrier

Wow…..I guess you read the American people right to the the tee…..let alone the world. NOT. people Ike different too. Let alone a whole lot of us wanted to see a good version of the monstrous giant. They did good with the movie….. and the masses came out to support it. Did I mention a sequel.

I bet you would have “predicted” in ’77 that Star Wars would flop. Your description of Guardians of the Galaxy could almost apply to Lucas’s band of odd-ball characters. “In fact, the post credits scene for “Thor 2″ which focused on the “Guardians of the Galaxy” was met with laughter by many in the theater.” Hardline solid fact checking there. IN FACT, My two theatres didn’t burst out laughing, so I guess you were just seated with a bunch of vegetables, right? Buddy, your arrogance bleeds through this article. Also none of your facts cite sources so I have to grade this article an F.

so let’s recap shall we. Godzilla has currently made $508 million world wide. Hollywood has been so impressed by this little known director that they gave him a star wars movie to direct. Guardians of the Galaxy made $94 million in its first 3 days breaking records. And Robocop made $250 million world wide and has already started filming it’s sequel so…. These predictions were spectacularly stupendously wrong on all accounts. Keep up the good work!

it’s also worth noting that the John Carter analogy itself is flawed. Though John Carter flopped domestically and cause a huge panic at Disney, they managed to pull things around internationally and the movie went on to make $284 million. It did teach us one thing however and that is to stop basing a movie’s success by how much it made in the first week in America, as if America were the only country on Earth.

“and this year “Guardians” will prove that Marvel can—and will—flop again.” So you were wrong about Godzilla and you were wrong about Guardians. I guess we can consider your blog a critical flop. Although it did work as click bait, I’ll give you that.

oh Dear. Looks Like you were wrong on all 3. If you can’t trust Forbes, who can you trust. :) Anyway Box office is no indication of the quality of a movie. Citizen Kane, Blade Runner, It’s a wonderful life, the wizard of oz, brazil, the general (keaton),hugo,night of the hunter. all did poorly at the box office, but are seen as classics or near classics. So If you plan to see a movie, don’t let it’s box office takings put you off.

Soooo… did this writer get canned for being SO wrong about 2 out of 3 choices? People who don’t readily follow the industry, especially the geek chic aspects, really shouldn’t be allowed to comment on them or attempt to predict them. Because articles like this happen. And then its just funny. And now there’s a public record of him being so very very pompous and deciding what the public is ready for only to be shown he clearly doesn’t get it.

How do did a Forbes editor allow this to come to print? 160 million spent on the film, with a 525 million return is consider a lost to you? The facts speak for themselves the movie was the furthest thing from a flop, that 2 more movies are already green lite to go. I highly doubt the Legendary and WB would invest in 2 more films, if the movie was a bust.

Holy hell I don’t think I’ve ever seen the words bomb and flop used as many times in an article. Who the hell edits this nonsense? Probably one of the worst articles I’ve ever had the misfortune of finding.