Gotta get down on Friday

The lack of a Roy Morgan federal poll result has reduced me to flogging the Rebecca Black dead horse in search of headline. There is this, I suppose:

â˘ A very modest Roy Morgan phone poll of 324 respondents, with a margin of error approaching 5.5%, contradicts the January-March Newspoll result in finding the WA Liberals with a landslide 62.5-37.5 lead on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 53.5% for the Liberals, 3.5% for the Nationals, 29.5% for Labor and 6% for the Greens. Colin Barnettâs approval and disapproval ratings of 54% and 33.5% compare with Newspollâs 51% and 33%, while Mark McGowanâs 36.5% and 18.5% compare with 43% and 17%. A bigger difference is recorded on preferred premier: 54-26.5 in Barnettâs favour, compared with 43-30.

â˘ Clive Palmer’s prospects in his headline-grabbing pitch for LNP preselection in Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley are not being rated highly. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that 2010 candidate Rod McGarvie, âa former soldier who now works with disabled peopleâ, is âwell entrenched among the party’s branchesâ. There is provision in the party constitution for a centralised preselection to overrule local branches, but Tony Abbott’s pointed call for a âgrassrootsâ candidate who would âdo the hard yards, knocking on doors, going to shopping centres and talking to local newspapersâ suggests it is unlikely to be invoked.

â˘ The Greens have confirmed winemaker and University of Tasmania economist Peter Whish-Wilson will fill the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Bob Brown.

â˘ The WA Parliament has officially confirmed Dean Smith to fill the casual vacancy created by the death of Liberal Senator Judith Adams. Debbie Guest of The Australian reports Smith was âa policy adviser to premier Richard Court and a senior adviser to Mr Howard during the 1998 election campaignâ, as well as being the state party’s Treasurer and a principal of lobbying firm Smith & Duda Consulting.

â˘ The South Australian Liberals have chosen their Senate ticket, with incumbents Cory Bernardi and Simon Birmingham confirmed in the top two positions. In third place is Anne Ruston, entrepreneur behind Rustonâs Roses, a Riverland wholesale flower-growing concern and tourism attraction. Whereas Coalition number three candidates in other states are looking well placed on present indications, the contest in South Australia will be complicated by Nick Xenophonâs bid for re-election.

â˘ The Age further reports that John Pesutto, a lawyer and Victorian government adviser said by John Ferguson of The Australian to be key figure in the Baillieu faction (and who ran unsuccessfully for preselection in Kooyong before the 2010 election), is considered likely to get the nod in Deakin. It was earlier suggested that Phil Barresi, who held the seat from 1996 until his defeat in 2007 and failed to win it back in 2010, might be interested in a comeback, and also that local councillor Tim Smith was interested.

â˘ Also continuing to unfold is the Liberal preselection for Corangamite, which pits the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2010, former state 7:30 Report host Sarah Henderson, against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and one-time adviser to the Howard government. Nockles has been boosted by the public support of Senator Arthur Sinodinos, while a VexNews contributor claims Higgins MP Kelly O’Dwyer and Senator Scott Ryan have also weighed in in his favour.

â˘ Zoe Edwards of the ABC reports the Tasmanian Liberal Party will preselect its Senate ticket in three weeks’ time. There is said to be a push to have David Bushby, best known for miaowing at Penny Wong during a committee hearing, demoted from the number two position to make way for a woman, although âinsidersâ expect him to hold on. According to the report, âHobart Alderman Sue Hickey and the Launceston Chamber of Commerce’s Kristen Finnigan are among a swag of high-profile women considering contestingâ.

â˘ Speaking to the Glen Innes Examiner, Richard Torbay, independent member for the NSW state seat of Northern Tablelands, continued to drop hints that he might be interested in running for the Nationals against Tony Windsor in New England. Torbay says he has been approached by the Nationals, the Liberals and Katterâs Australian Party, and âif he was to accept any offer it would probably be with the Nationalsâ. He also speaks of his âdisappointment about the trashing of the independent brandâ and the defeat of independent MPs in recent state elections, which I take to mean that he blames the latter on Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. There remains the possibility that Barnaby Joyce might want the seat if Maranoa falls through for him, and National Farmers Federation president Jock Laurie has ârefused to rule out a run at pre-selectionâ.

Further reading:

â˘ Norm Kelly, a former Democrats MLC in the Western Australian parliament and now politics teacher at the Australian National University, offers a 191-page review of Australian electoral law and administration and prospects for its reform, freely available online.

â˘ Australian Policy Online has published what might be the most thorough account ever offered of a federal preselection: that held by Labor for the Canberra seat of Fraser before the 2010 federal election, written by local party member Terry Giesecke. The preselection ultimately delivered a surprise win to academic economist Andrew Leigh.

Finally, except when I canât be bothered, I will henceforth be profiling a federal electorate every Friday in anticipation of the next federal election, whenever that might be. Today we look at Brand, held for Labor by Special Minister of State Gary Gray on a margin of 3.3%.

Brand covers the coastal strip in southern Perth taking in the heavy industrial zone around Kwinana, the outer metropolitan centre of Rockingham, and suburbs further south as far as the outskirts of Mandurah. Labor has held the seat since it was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984, being strong in Rockingham and especially around Kwinana. However, the Liberals have sources of strength in the coastal suburbs south of Port Kennedy, and inland of Rockingham at Baldivis. Troublingly for Labor, both are areas of rapid development: between the 2001 and 2010 elections, the number of votes cast at the Baldivis booth increased from 1323 to 4338, while the Secret Harbour booth grew from 1150 to 3182. The image below shows the two-party booth results, with the font size ranging from 12-point where the number of votes was between 250 and 500 to 26-point for over 3000.

Wendy Fatin held Brand for Labor from its inception until 1996, when it served as an escape hatch for Kim Beazley after one close scrape too many in Swan. Beazleyâs troubles did not end there, as his debut in Brand saw him hold on by just 387 votes, with Labor spending the week after its election defeat unsure if he would be available to assume the leadership. When Pauline Hanson reached her zenith in the lead-up to the 1998 election, some had the idea that the seat could fall to One Nation on account of its unusually articulate candidate, Lee Dawson. Dawson polled 11.9% and directed his preferences to the Liberals, but couldnât prevent Beazley from riding an 11.1% swing to his first comfortable win since 1987.

Beazley bowed out at the 2007 election after losing the leadership to Kevin Rudd, and was succeeded as Labor candidate by Gary Gray, the partyâs national secretary at the 1996 and 1998 elections and later an executive with mining giant Woodside. A figure in the Right faction, Gray was immediately promoted to parliamentary secretary and then to the outer ministry after the 2010 election as Special Minister of State and Minister for the Public Service and Integrity. His electoral performances have been broadly in line with the overall state results: in 2007 he picked up a 1.0% swing, despite the loss of Kim Beazleyâs personal vote, and the swing against him in 2010 was 2.3%. Gray will again be opposed at the next election by the Liberal candidate from 2010, Donna Gordin, a Rockingham real estate agent.

Sexual assault allegations, underage binge drinking and gross acts of indecency have rocked WAâs most prestigious university and prompted crisis meetings about the future of student orientation camps.

The University of Western Australiaâs vice-chancellor Paul Johnson said no âofficial complaintsâ had been made to the university, but he was aware of the âbinge drinking, peer pressure, bullying, and inappropriate sexual behaviourâ.

"The current rate of social security payment for a person in receipt of Parenting Payment Single is $324 a week. However, the rate of payments for a principal carer on Newstart is just $265 per week - a payment reduction of $59 a week or $3,086 a year.

"We estimate such a move would force a further 100,000 single parents of children from disadvantaged and low income families onto the lower paying Newstart Allowance, which pays just $35 a day ($37 for sole parents) and hasn't been increased since 1994," Ms O'Halloran said.

ACOSS, Welfare Rights, and NCSMC have long argued that Newstart Allowance is not a suitable payment for parents with young dependent children. Under Newstart Allowance, the financial returns from employment are less than those available under Parenting Payment. These reforms will actually reduce work incentives, rather than increase them.

"The Government would do better to look for savings at the top end where billions are wasted every year on poorly targeted subsidies and tax concessions and tax loopholes such as âgolden handshakes and other tax shelters.

Senator Siewert made the comments amid speculation that the Government was seeking to save $700 million in the budget by removing the provisions protecting 100,000 families from 2006 changes to the single parenting payment.

âThis is cost cutting that can't be dressed up as a measure to help people into work.

âCutting income support payments doesn't mean that parents will automatically be able to find a job. People face many barriers to employment and lower income support payments don't address these barriers.

âI have no doubt that children will miss out on necessities if this change becomes the reality.

VOLUME 3
Epi. 5: The Deadly Waves (Magnetic Mines) | Epi. 6: Still Secret (The Enigma Code and Project Ultra) (Note: It was this historic episode that helped to finally tear down the veil of secrecy over Project Ultra 23 years after the end of the war!

What a non story. Uni students have been doing that like 4 eva. All the people that go on to become the “establishement”. Tones was a champion at it. Sheepen shagger land “drunkards” have just this week gone viral.

The wider population of Dunedin have long tolerated the bibulous habits of the many students in the city. But that patience is being strained by the emergence of a bizarre new branch of drinking game, according to reports from the southern New Zealand city.

Called possum, the game has quite simple rules: you sit in a tree and drink until you fall out of it.

â˘ Also continuing to unfold is the Liberal preselection for Corangamite, which pits the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2010, former state 7:30 Report host Sarah Henderson, against Rod Nockles, an internet security expert and one-time adviser to the Howard government. Nockles has been boosted by the public support of Senator Arthur Sinodinos, while a VexNews contributor claims Higgins MP Kelly OâDwyer and Senator Scott Ryan have also weighed in in his favour.

There’s a lot of crap reported in the msm.

And one of the most stupid stories I’ve seen of late is that Kelly O’Dwyer does not want Sarah Henderson to run in Corangamite in case she (Sarah) beats Kelly for a promotion of some sort within the parliamentary Liberal party.

Absolute tosh! O’Dwyer being a clone of Michaelia Cash notwithstanding.

VOLUME 3
Epi. 5: The Deadly Waves (Magnetic Mines) | Epi. 6: Still Secret (The Enigma Code and Project Ultra) (Note: It was this historic episode that helped to finally tear down the veil of secrecy over Project Ultra 23 years after the end of the war!

ANOTHER prominent Liberal is said to have met the staffer at the centre of sexual harassment allegations against Speaker Peter Slipper in the days before the explosive claims were made public.

A Sunshine Coast LNP member has told the National Times that James Ashby met with Mr Slipperâs long-time political rival and former Howard cabinet minister Mal Brough on the Sunshine Coast in early April when he was still working as Mr Slipperâs press secretary.

But it shoukd be pointed to the dis c jockeys o radio, that poor is tne oporative word.
As if they are not educated and encouraged to get an education, they will always be poor in finanances,, social skills, and commu ication. Have noself esteem this of coursre transfers to their children .
The gov, guided by julia have put in place a pathway of learing for them, creche provided at colleges, ect, one day thry will be thankful this road wss opened up to them ,
Their child or children will be very proud, and who know getting out of the house they may just meet their soul mate,
Uts a backward silly notion that they should sit home on a pension, no super, nothing to look forward to, any one that thinks otherwise is doing these you g woman a great disservice, and that of their offspri g

Does anyone know of any analysis of Kathy Jackson’s role/history in the HSU farce.

She said on radio today that the $270K PA salary level she gets, (and has accepted for a number of years), was forced on her by “Williamson and his cronies”. She said that she doesn’t even do the job for money, only to help members.

As President of HSU East and Secretary of the National HSU, is the $270K she admits to, a joint salary or one of two?

She admits that HSU East branch “lent” her ex hubby’s Vic cash strapped branch $57K so that his termination payment could be paid out, and states that there was nothing unusual about this.

Has it been paid back? Was it lent by HSU East according to their “procedures” said by Mr Temby to be non-existent? Did she as President authorise/organise the loan? Who requested it?

Chris Brown who is acting in Williamson’s National President role said it was most inexplicable why KJ first leaked to the police, having not raised any such issues with the National Exec (of which she is Secretary) over a number of years.

On Monday night after the Temby report was leaked, KJ said of the HSU East mob of which she is President “good, NOW????? we can get on with cleaning it up”.

Is this virtuous whistle blower so pure, as the silence of the MSM suggests?

I drove to the city a few weeks back to go to a funeral. When I was leaving a woman in the car parked next to mine came up to ask if anything had been taken from my car. I said no (immediately thinking of the carton of chamapgne in the back, but that was still there. Thank goodness!).

She said she went to her husband’s grave for 15mins to lay flowers, and in that time someone had smashed the window in her car, popped the boot where she’d put her handbag, and stolen her bag.

They must’ve been watching her as she arrived with a view to robbing people’s cars. At a cemetery for heaven’s sake!!

She said on radio today that the $270K PA salary level she gets, (and has accepted for a number of years), was forced on her by âWilliamson and his croniesâ. She said that she doesnât even do the job for money, only to help members.

Yes, I heard that too and immediately had a few thoughts:

1. She said she “protested” about it at the time. But nobody heeded her protests, and so she pocketed the money, albeit grudgingly.

2. If she doesn’t do the job for money, why not resign at the time of the outrageous pay offer, esp as she also alleged in the interview that her pay offer was only to cover for higher salaries being offered to Williamson and others. If she’d resigned, she could’ve alerted whoever to what was happening, and possibly exposed these recent events a lot sooner.

3. Why stay when the people she claimed to want to help were being seemingly screwed so mercilessly by the union as a whole?

Thanks Confessions
A quick google shows that she has been a very tough “street fighter” in union politics for about 20 years and seemingly has never run away from any of her many skirmishes, but if you listen to any of her many TV interviews she is introduced/referred to as though butter wouldn’t melt ….etc

Is this virtuous whistle blower so pure, as the silence of the MSM suggests?

NO!
KJ had told 7.30 report that she had reported her allegations to Chris Brown.
Chris Brown told Tony Jones that was a lie.
Chris Brown said that Kathy Jackson & Williamson were joined at the hip. Always voting in a block together. They had a falling out for which he is unaware of the cause.
She was a big part of the problem.

How are you today? Hope all is well with you and your family?, You may not understand why this mail came to you. but if you do not remember me, you might have receive an email from me in the past regarding a mulch-million-dollar business proposal which we never concluded. I am using this opportunity to inform you that this mulch-million-dollar business has been concluded with the assistance of another partner who financed the transaction with a logical conclusion. I thank you for your great effort to our unfinished transfer of fund into your account due to one reason or the other best known to you.

But I want to inform you that I have successfully transferred the fund out of my bank to my new partner's account who was capable of assisting me in this great opportunity. Due to your effort, sincerity,courage and trust worthy you showed during the course of the transaction. I want to compensate you and show my gratitude to you with the sum of $1,300,000.00. I have left a certified International Cashier's BANK DRAFT for you worth of $1,300,000.00 cash able in any bank in the world.

My dear, I will like you to contact my Pastor, Rev. Pastor Godwin in his direct email address at: rev.pastorwin@hotmail.com for the collection of your certified International Cashier BANK DRAFT. I authorized him to release the BANK DRAFT to you whenever you contact him regarding to the draft. At the moment,I'm very busy here because of the investment projects, which I and my new partner are having at hands.

Please I will like you to accept this token with good faith as this is from the bottom of my whole heart, also comply with Rev. Pastor Godwin directives so that he will send the BANK DRAFT to you without any delay.

Therefore you should send him your full Name and telephone number/your correct mailing address where you want him to send the Bank Draft to avoid wrong delivery and to ensure that you receive the bank draft and cash it in any bank of your choice without delay.

What a non story. Uni students have been doing that like 4 eva. All the people that go on to become the âestablishementâ.

Well, at least before Chaucer wrote Canterbury Tales (late 14th Century) in some of which students are very tired & very very emotional! Oxford Uni students for sure, and it’s been there since c1096AD. Some things never change – university male undergrads among them.

For a few weeks I have been thinking that I must be prejudiced about her (probably because IMO she presents on TV as one tough lady who is over-the-top self righteous) and/or that I have a peculiarly suspicious outlook.

This self doubt has been amplified by the deafening silence about any aspect of her character, credibility, history or past or present conduct in the MSM and in the www.

Maybe the big bucket of shite floating around in the sky will contain sufficient to drop a load on her and a load on Ashby and his “associates” from a great height.

Has their ever been a modern figure who ever came close to breadth of Chaucer? Senior public servant, Courtier, Diplomat and genius poet/storyteller. I just can’t imagine Ken Henry writing the Wife of Bath.

Bodgie solicters would use a hotmail email,although one would know it is a scam probaably from Nigeria,have received such emails ,about becoming a very rich english lord.Just give personal details to get the title plus a few expenses required for such effort on the firms part.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australiaâs Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.