UkipWatch

Wythenshawe and Sale East: Neither a setback nor a success, but a solid advance

Last night’s by-election is no game-changer for Ukip, but then it was never going to be. For reasons that we set out in our last blog, Wythenshawe and Sale East was never going to offer easy territory to Ukippers in the same way that seats like Eastleigh or Rotherham did. Difficult local conditions, a lack of Ukip campaigning at past local elections, and a very short by-election campaign that focussed heavily on the postal vote all meant that this was never going to deliver another major breakthrough for Farage and his followers. Even they knew this, predicting to us before the battle that anything between 15 and 20 per cent would keep them happy – that’s the thing about the current generation of Ukippers, they suddenly appear to have a strong grasp of their strengths and weaknesses.

If anything, what is striking about the result is that Ukip saw a five-fold increase in their level of support despite these harsher local conditions. Think about it for a second. Despite a three week campaign. Despite a well-oiled and ruthlessly efficient Labour machine. Despite Farage’s allegations of local intimidation and "nasty tactics" by Labour and the BNP. Despite never having had any local active presence in the seat. Despite a striking turnout figure of 28%, reflecting by-election apathy and the storms, which may well have further suppressed the Ukip vote further. Despite all of this, Ukip still rocked in to this Labour area, took almost 18 per cent of the vote, moved from fifth to second place and added more than 14 points to their share of the vote in 2010. It is not a spectacular success in the same tradition of other campaigns that we have witnessed over the past two years, but make no mistake – this is still a solid advance. In fact, this was Ukip’s fourth best by-election result in their entire history.

On television this morning a journalist asked Farage to explain this "surprising result". Anyone who reads UkipWatch will know the result was far from surprising, and reflects a broader point about the appeal of this new political revolt in more northern, disadvantaged and Labour areas. Farage’s reply was quick and sharp: “Get out of Westminster and take a look around”. His point is a valid one – the conventional wisdom that portrays the rise of Ukip as middle-class Tory angst in the shires over Europe remains deeply entrenched in the Westminster village and on Fleet Street. Like previous results, this latest by-election should go some way to dispelling that myth.