Nibali didn't start in yesterday's Post Tour Derny in Antwerpen. According to the organizers, it's because Vino was unhappy with his performance in the Tour, and therefor decided that he must ride the Vuelta, and didn't allow him to do any races before that

Nibs only rides L-B-L for the ardennes anyway, they need a leader so Saying Aru will lead the ardennes is ok all 4 of the races suit Aru as much as a really flat Timetrial does but Astana I think expect Nibali to leave so want to give Au the we think you are our leader confidence boost

Nibs riding the normal program of T-A MSR L-B-L Giro then riding the TDF to help Aru and focus on the Olympics makes a lot of sense to me

Nibs only rides L-B-L for the ardennes anyway, they need a leader so Saying Aru will lead the ardennes is ok all 4 of the races suit Aru as much as a really flat Timetrial does but Astana I think expect Nibali to leave so want to give Au the we think you are our leader confidence boost

Nibs riding the normal program of T-A MSR L-B-L Giro then riding the TDF to help Aru and focus on the Olympics makes a lot of sense to me

Nicely put . I get the point re Nibs. With regards Aru I think it's not particularly well done to put the pressure on the guy for races he has not favoured before... such a 'confidence boost' could well backfire on them.

If I'm brutally honest I don't really give two little hoots about which races they ride. Don't get me wrong, I like the way they both race, they animate and ride with heart. But the whole interplay within the team, the way the power shifts (or perhaps more accurately the way it is portrayed by the media) THAT is both fascinating and sickening to watch by turns. I'd say to Aru, watch it my lad. For all your star is in ascendency now... just remember how quickly it can turn.

Of course there are other reasons why the Ardennes captaincy and roles within that team are a topic I watch closely... but that is a faint hope and growing dimmer by the year.

Lieuwe Westra wants to go for a less anonymous season this year, he feels good and targets a Top 10 in the Tour Down Under for a start, before building up shape for his main goals Paris Nice and the Dutch National Time Trial Championships, which he both would like to win again.

It's not yet clear which Grand Tour he will do, but it will probably not be the Giro, although starting in the Netherlands

Basically it seems like Fuglsang is favored to be leading Astana at the Tour along with young hope M.A.Lopez. I guess this means that Aru is going for the Giro and the Vuelta then. What I in this regard find interesting is how Astana will chose to divide their powers for the various races, result in France should matter more, yet Aru is much more likely to bring home a significant result in Italy. I figured I would take a look at the Nibaliless[1] roster for 2017 in an attempt to see who might be headed to what grand tours in 2017.

Overall team makeup

Aru is the best GC rider at Astana and should be given a full supporting cast at any GT he lines up at. Astana does not have anybody very likely to win GT-stages that are not a GC rider anyways so not much reason to pick anything but who is best at supporting Aru whenever he is there. Aru going to the Giro means that the Giro team must feature strong climbing support as well as flat support. What this then leaves for the Tour is first of all Lopez who will need to ride the GT that Aru doesn't ride as part of his maturation process. Lopez has all the upside in the world and needs to be tested for three weeks. Lopez is however not enough to build a Tour squad around, and as Astana does not have any super obvious stage winner candidates such as a top 5 sprinter in the world it makes sense bringing another GC hope as well. Here there is three to chose from Fuglsang, Scarponi and Kangert. Fuglsang would seem to be the better option of the three here, even more so considering that he is more balanced than Scarponi who could then be used as climbing support in Aru's bid to win his second ever grand tour. Kangert looked like he might have been on his way to becoming better than Fuglsang some years ago, but his development flatted out pretty quick. Fuglsang is realistically within reach of a top 10 in the Tour, but having achieved this before he almost have to aim at the top 5, podium will be hard, but last year the difference between riders not named Chris Froome was not that big in France. Even with Quintana returning to challenge Froome the 3rd spot on the podium may be relatively open. Lopez and Fuglsang will need a few riders to help them in the mountains, two or three should do the trick. As far as flat support goes it will be relevant to look into which riders might have a chance to win a stage from a medium mountain stage as well as ride for the team leaders. Lastly there should be some Kazakhs present at all the GT's.

Giro Team

Name

Role

Fabio Aru

Absolute leader of the Giro squad. Aru or bust could be a relevant tittle for the Astana Giro campaign. The team will look to win the race with Aru, and if successful this would set Aru up to in 2018 start aiming for the Tour and adding the last GT to his palmares.

Michele Scarponi

Aru will need a strong team around him and this starts with Scarponi who should be able to provide support late in the mountains for Aru.

Tanel Kangert

If Team Sky has taught us anything it is that you can never have too many super-doms when attempting a GC win Kangert fits that role and should be able to help Aru out on any stage.

Dario Cataldo

Should be capable of filling out the role of fourth best climber in the squad.

Luis Leon Sanchez

Lulu is an all-around beast that adds strength to any GT lineup. He is good at so many things and as such he will be useful for Aru on many stages.

Paolo Tiralongo

Just an all-round solid rider that is capable of putting in good work for the team.

Moreno Moser

Very strong on flat and hilly parcours when at his best. Maybe the change of teams will see him return to peak level.

Andrey Zeits

The Kazakh climber is no free ticket and normally rides the Giro and Vuelta.

Oscar Gatto

Good rider on the flat and could aid his team there. Could see the team bringing another Kazakh instead though.

Tour Team

Name

Role

Miguel Angel Lopez

Young gun aiming to prove his GC capabilities. Lopez should try to stay up in the GC and see how well he does.

Jakob Fuglsang

GC should be the goal, if he starts to slip perhaps time to look for stages. If Lopez comes out guns blazing it may be back to being number two for Jakob.

Tanel Kangert

Providing a bit of support in the mountains for the captains as well as perhaps a chance at a stage win in the third week. Kangert should peak for the Giro to improve Aru's chances at winning, and as such he may not be at his top level for the start of the Tour.

Jesper Hansen

Looked good in the Vuelta in 2015 didn't get picked for GT's in 2016, but showed good form throughout. Hansen should be able to be there until the last climb providing the captains with the assistance they may need. Neither Fuglsang or Lopez is anticipated to be gunning for the win and helpers on the last climb as such is less important, mostly it is just follow the moves if you can type of racing.

Luis Leon Sanchez

Riding the Tour in a more free role than the Giro. Lulu will along with the next two riders share the same duty. Firstly, look to attack and make it into moves on days where there is a chance the break makes it to the end. Secondly protect the captains when you are not in these moves. Between them the three should be capable of doing both.

Michael Valgren

Arguably the one of the three more likely to win a stage from something else than a break, Valgren will get his chances on shorter uphill finishes and will other wise be free to chase stages as well.

Alexey Lutsenko

The best Kazakh rider at the moment. Lutsenko is great on the flat and rolling hills and even has a pretty decent sprint.

Lieuwe Westra

Could try to get in a move like the three above, but less capable finisher than the three above.

Dimitriy Gruzdev

Strong as nails on the flat, but will mostly look to shelter Lopez and Fuglsang on the flat.

Vuelta Team

Name

Role

Fabio Aru

Absolute leader, will look to win overall.

Michele Scarponi

Climbing support for Aru and probably his last man in the mountains.

Jakob Fuglsang

Support for Aru, perhaps with a chance to chase stages, might not hit peak shape at beginning of Vuelta.

Just want to add and say again that Kangert and Scarponi are pretty much the best gregarios in the world. They decided the Giro for Nibali and I think are too important to not do Giro and Kangert probably also TDF. Valgren said in a piece I read last week that he wants to do Giro and Vuelta and that his season will be all about Liege and World's.

Valgren said in a piece I read last week that he wants to do Giro and Vuelta and that his season will be all about Liege and World's.

Giro and Vuelta is interesting, I would think that Astana have fine riders that could support Aru there allowing Valgren a chance to go for a TdF stage win instead. Team is pretty light in the non-climbers department that could win stages imo. But yes agree with Ardennes as main goal. If I am putting my self in place of the team it is hard to agree with worlds as a key goal. So in my book it would be Ardennes classics and the Tour de France as the season highlights for him.

Giro and Vuelta is interesting, I would think that Astana have fine riders that could support Aru there allowing Valgren a chance to go for a TdF stage win instead. Team is pretty light in the non-climbers department that could win stages imo. But yes agree with Ardennes as main goal. If I am putting my self in place of the team it is hard to agree with worlds as a key goal. So in my book it would be Ardennes classics and the Tour de France as the season highlights for him.

Even so, he seems confident that his aim will be Ardennes and Worlds and he is not TDF bound, they must have talked when he signed. Though of course Astana will do as they see fir and never mind things that 'may' have been talked months ago. I can see Vuelta as the pre Worlds tune up...but not Tour/Vuelta double.

What I in this regard find interesting is how Astana will chose to divide their powers for the various races, result in France should matter more, yet Aru is much more likely to bring home a significant result in Italy.

Enjoyed your analysis of this tricky conundrum. I have replied re Valgren further up in this thread. I agree he seems logical for the TDF... nevertheless he is quite clear so far that the TDF is not on his agenda. Having said that things change.

Re: results in France meaning more. You'd think so, and yet this Italian hybrid hasn't always played this game. 2013 when Nibbles rode a triumphant Giro leaving TDF for Fuglsang comes to mind (though they didn't have the same depth of personnel) I agree on your thinking... they will be 100% Giro and 100% Aru (Giro and Vuelta).It'll be 'odds and sods' at the TDF by comparison.

I worry about Aru. He's a talent that much is sure, but I felt he was under all sorts of pressure this year and never really coped or recovered his confidence after the mauling at the Tour. I would hate to see that repeated in 2017. By the same token I like the fact Lopez gets a chance to try without too much pressure. I am hopeful this last hurrah will draw a line under Fuglsang's GC obsession, before it's too late.

I am hopeful this last hurrah will draw a line under Fuglsang's GC obsession, before it's too late.

Personally I don't mind it too much to be honest, I mean what else is he to do, chase stages? Me and Lukas had a discussion on this point a month ago maybe on twitter in regards to top 10's or stages meaning more. Lukas point was that no one remembered who came 7th in the Giro and my point was that no one remembered who won stage 17 either. I feel like targeting GC in GT's is fine for him. Plus it is not like he has any kind of acceleration that makes you think he could win heaps of stages other wise.

I agree he [Valgren] seems logical for the TDF... nevertheless he is quite clear so far that the TDF is not on his agenda. Having said that things change.

The way I could see it changing is in regard to his role, if Valgren has a chance to have the team ride for him at some stages in the Tour, and overall have a much more free role than he would at the Giro/Vuelta then I would see this as a better race schedule.

If I was DS and someone told me they wanted to peak for worlds I'd be trying to talk them out of that for sure. Unless I wanted them to peak close to that anyway. Worlds is for fun, it doesn't pay the bills.

Re: results in France meaning more. You'd think so, and yet this Italian hybrid hasn't always played this game. 2013 when Nibbles rode a triumphant Giro leaving TDF for Fuglsang comes to mind (though they didn't have the same depth of personnel) I agree on your thinking... they will be 100% Giro and 100% Aru (Giro and Vuelta).It'll be 'odds and sods' at the TDF by comparison.

They would certainly like 1st GC in France over 1st GC in Italy, but that is not the situation. The Giro field the last few years has had one of the big four show up and win it. Questions to ask is, will any of them show up in 2017? Is Contador still up there with the three others? If they don't show up Aru has a chance to win the Giro. In France I could see him get 3rd highest assuming normal amounts of missed form and dnf from favorites.

Personally I think Valgren is wasted at GTs. There are plenty of smaller races that he could have a shout at, like he did in Denmark. It appears he's been bought specifically to challenge in lots of one day races and without Sagan he should get far more chances.

I'm still undecided about Aru, a good rider obviously but will he ever reach the heights of challenging for the Tour? I'm not so sure.

I wonder if Lopez will ride the Giro in a free role with no need to go for GC. He probably needs to do a 3 weeker without pressure just for experience and to get his body used to it.

I wonder if Lopez will ride the Giro in a free role with no need to go for GC. He probably needs to do a 3 weeker without pressure just for experience and to get his body used to it.

Fuglsang said he would be co-captain at the Tour, I doubt he will do a double. I think it will be Tour, have Fuglsang wear the number 1 and let Lopez simply have the goal of trying to stick with the guys in GC for as long as he can, just to test him out.

Personally I think Valgren is wasted at GTs. There are plenty of smaller races that he could have a shout at, like he did in Denmark. It appears he's been bought specifically to challenge in lots of one day races and without Sagan he should get far more chances.

I am not saying he is more likely to win a stage than to not win one, but a 10 % at a TdF stage vs. a 80 % at some race no one ever heard off, I'd take the 10 % at a TdF stage any day. Just arbitrary percentages so don't put too much into it. In the end what it comes down to is that Astana needs their best shot at winning something in the races that matter to them, one of them being the tour, and Valgren gives them a better chance than anyone they could replace him with.

The Broeckx crash, his girlfriend leaving him after seven years, the loneliness of Monaco, language barrier in Astana etc. He had a bit of a mid-season break, but it's been pretty much DNFs since then.

Quote

But it's not over yet. Today or tomorrow he leaves for three months to the Spanish coast. A sandwich and protein shake for breakfast, time cycle and evening rice, lettuce and a little meat. ,, Everything stands or falls with the next hundred days and the months thereafter. I think I've lost alone in hotel costs 10,000 euros. A best investment. If you do that, you're obviously not quite ready to cycling. If I survive this, this period is also something I can be proud of. ''

He wants at all costs to finish his last year in Astana. Then perhaps to a smaller team in the Netherlands or Belgium. Think Roompotstraat or Wanty. But only if he finds it fun again, because afraid to stop Westra is long gone. Black hole after his career ?. ,, I do not think I will suffer from it. Much worse than this can not be.

Fuglsang said he would be co-captain at the Tour, I doubt he will do a double. I think it will be Tour, have Fuglsang wear the number 1 and let Lopez simply have the goal of trying to stick with the guys in GC for as long as he can, just to test him out.

I am not saying he is more likely to win a stage than to not win one, but a 10 % at a TdF stage vs. a 80 % at some race no one ever heard off, I'd take the 10 % at a TdF stage any day. Just arbitrary percentages so don't put too much into it. In the end what it comes down to is that Astana needs their best shot at winning something in the races that matter to them, one of them being the tour, and Valgren gives them a better chance than anyone they could replace him with.

If you forced me to bet on it I would bet against it. Not sure if there is more upside or he has reached his full potential to be honest.

You can never accuse Aru of not putting in 100%, he absolutely gives it everything regularly.

Maybe that's why I don't think he has quite the talent to break into the very top set. I think he'll be overtaken by Lopez, Latour and a few others fairly quickly. And I don't think he's as good as Chaves or the Yates boys already.