Monthly Archives: November 2011

NFL Week 12 concludes with a big Monday Night Football game between the NY Giants and New Orleans Saints. Fantasy football experts will want to exploit the player prop odds as well as the game line.

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A bowl bid is on the line for the Air Force Academy Falcons as they travel down I-25 to take on the Colorado State Rams in Fort Collins on Saturday.

They’ll be facing a CSU squad that will likely be without starting quarterback Pete Thomas, who sprained his knee two weeks ago. Thomas is currently listed as day-to-day but coaches were not optimistic about his condition.

His replacement, Garrett Grayson is a true freshman who logged his first start last week against TCU. In that outing he completed 14-24 for 248 yards, one touchdown and one interception. For comparison, Thomas was 17-30 for 230 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his last full game as a starter. So he’s at least as good Thomas, just not as experienced.

The Falcons know what’s at stake for them late in the season after dropping four of their last seven games and they’re rising to the challenge. Last week they looked very good while crushing UNLV 45-17. In that game they put up a total of 522 yards offense, while holding the Runnin’ Rebels to only 228 yards.

Air Force’s defense has definitely been answering the call recently, too. Over the course of their last four games they’re only giving up an average of 14 points.

Offensively, the Falcons have sputtered early in games, but come on strong late. They gave Boise State a serious run for their money after a scoreless first quarter. They went on to lose that game 37-26, though they were -30 point underdogs.

Air Force teams, by their very nature, tend to be well disciplined and mission-focused. That means that beating the Rams, who have dropped their last six games, should not be a problem.

The Pick: Air Force – 16.5

Iowa State Cyclones (6-4, 3-4) vs. #9 Oklahoma Sooners (8-2, 5-2)

Odds: Oklahoma -27.5

Will the Iowa State Cyclones slay BCS giants two weeks in a row? That’s the job ahead of them as they travel to Norman to take on the #9 Oklahoma Sooners.

The problem with great upsets is that they’re usually followed by great disappointments. Maintaining the kind of momentum it takes to knock off an Oklahoma State, is very difficult, but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. The Sooners have definitely shown a few chinks in their armor this season that the Cyclones could take advantage of.

For the Sooners, an inconsistent defense seems to be their biggest problem. In last week’s 45-38 loss against the Baylor, the Bears threw for 485 yards and ran for another 181. Those are the kinds of numbers you expect to see from the Sooners, not Baylor. Over the course of their last four games they’re giving up an average of 30 points. Quarterback Landry Jones can have a really great game on Saturday, as he usually does, and still have trouble competing if the defense doesn’t step up.

One of the keys to Iowa State’s victory over the Cowboys was a stand up performance from their defense. They held OSU to just 60 rushing yards and forced five turnovers. And their offense looked pretty good, too.

Freshman quarterback Jared Barnett showed great leadership and clock management skills while leading his team from a 17-point deficit to an overtime win. He completed 31-58 for 376 yards and three touchdowns. There’s no question that Barrett and the Cyclones are on the rise, but pulling major upsets two weeks in a row is not a likely scenario.

Look for the Cyclones to give the Sooners a tremendous game, but back-to-back Oklahoma losses are as rare as Longhorns jerseys in OU frat houses. The Sooners will win, but not by -27.5.

The Pick: Iowa State +28 Fx Best Bet of the Year

Wyoming Cowboys (7-3, 4-1) vs. #10 Boise State Broncos (9-1, 4-1)

Odds: Boise State -32.5

For a team with only one loss, the Boise State Broncos are in a tough situation. Unless they win their remaining games, they’ll likely be playing in a lower tier bowl come December. That makes winning against the Wyoming Cowboys on Saturday that much more important.

Last week Kellen Moore and company easily handled the San Diego State Aztecs 52-35 and looked typically spectacular while doing so. Moore threw four touchdown passes and completed 28 of 40 for 366 in that game. But the Broncos turned over the ball twice and that’s something they won’t be able to get away with when facing the Cowboys.

Wyoming’s best shot against the Broncos is going to come through a solid defensive effort and forcing turnovers. This season they’ve already forced 26 turnovers and that could be a big edge on a Boise team that’s developed slippery fingers lately.

Outside of the Mountain West Wyoming doesn’t get noticed much, but they’re playing pretty well this season. Their high powered offense is putting up an average of 28 points a game. In losses against teams like Nebraska and TCU they’ve hung tough and put up a lot more fight than expected.

Let’s face it, the days of the Broncos blowing every opponent out of the water are in the past. They’re still a solid team, but they’re just not going to suffocate every team that passes through town anymore. They’re only 0-4 ATS when playing at home and -32 is a big number to cover. This line speaks more to the number of bettors who go with Boise no matter what than the quality of the Cowboys.

Notre Dame travels to Stanford and face Heisman Trophy candidate Andrew Luck. The Irish are ranked #24 and the Cardinals are #5 in the nation. Last week Stanford barely survived a win over California 31-28 while Notre Dame squeezed a win over Boston College 16-14. This game is played at Stanford Stadium on Saturday, November 26, 2011 and is scheduled to be on ABC-TV at 8:00 PM ET. The line for this game is currently Stanford -6.5. Let’s preview each team and then make our free pick and prediction for your bet.

Notre Dame comes in with an 8-3 record and are 3-1 on the road. The Irish have been carried in recent weeks by the rushing gain. Jonas Gray has 791 yards on the season with 12 touchdowns but will not play in this game due to an injury. The back-up, Cierre Wood, will attempt to pick up the slack with his 1001 yards gained and has caught 25 passes on the year. Notre Dame is a mistake prone team and is next-to-last in the nation in that category.

Stanford relies on quarterback Andrew Luck with his 2937 yards passing and has thrown for 31 touchdowns. Luck is a legitimate NFL prospect that is ranked 5th best in the nation in passing efficiency. On the ground, Stepfan Taylor has rushed for 1035 yards with 8 touchdowns this season. The defense has held opponents to 93.4 yards per game rushing for 5th best and 333.4 total defensive yards for 24th best.

Notre Dame is 5-6 ATS and 4-6 O/U while Stanford is 9-2 ATS and 6-5 O/U this year. Stanford has won 22 of its last 25 home games dating back to the end of the 2007 season, with all of the losses coming in conference play. Looking at the numbers one thing that jumps out is that Stanford scores 45 points per game which is 4th best in the nation and allows 20.9 to their opponents and the Irish only manage 32 points and allow 20.3 per game. This game has Stanford -7 and that is how we advise you bet it.

Platinum Play: Stanford -7

Georgia at Georgia Tech

This game of Top 25 teams will take place at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia at noon ET on Saturday, November 26, 2011. The game is scheduled to be televised on ESPN with the line Georgia -6. Georgia enters with a 9-2 record and is 3-0 on the road but have won nine games in a row after losing the first two of the season. The Yellow Jackets won last week over Duke 38-31 after losing any conference chances the week before to Virginia Tech. Georgia claims it leads 61-37-5, not counting two Tech wins in 1943-44. Tech naturally counts the two victories, saying the series record is 61-39-5. Georgia has won nine of the past 10 meetings.

Georgia only scored 19 points last week but managed to win the game over Kentucky. The two leading rushers for the Bulldogs have gone out with an injury and Brandon Harton gave Georgia 101 yards rushing in the game. Defense is their staple as they rank fourth in the nation in fewest points allowed.

Georgia Tech is 8-3 on the season and 5-3 at home. The team is 2nd best in the nation is rushing offense with 325 yards per game and score 36.5 points a game for 17th best. Last week Tevin Washington, quarterback, passed for 185 yards with 136 yards rushing and scored one touchdown. Tech leads the ACC and ranks 23rd nationally in passing defense, but gave up season highs in pass completions, attempts and touchdowns last week.

Georgia gave up 512 yards of total offense to Tech last year, but held on for a 42-34 victory in Athens. The Bulldogs defense is too strong for the Yellow Jackets in this game. Georgia is 7-4 ATS and 5-6 O/U this year while Georgia Tech is 5-5-1 ATS and 7-4 O/U. With Tech rushing for 323 yards a game for 2nd in the nation and the Bulldogs hold opponents to 81.5 yards on the ground for the year, something has to give. Bet Georgia -6 to win the game.

Tanners Tip: Georgia -6

Virginia Tech at Virginia

This rivalry game in the state of Virginia finds Virginia Tech entering Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia to fight for the top spot of the ACC championship game. The Holies have won the last seven games between the two teams and 11 of the last 12 contests. The game will be on ESPN2 with the line Virginia Tech -4.5. Virginia enters this game on a four-game winning streak with its best team in years as it broke into the top 25 for the first time since 2007 this week. The Cavaliers are flying high with two wins against ranked opponents already in their pocket. A third would propel Virginia into its first ACC title game.

Virginia Tech is 10-1 on the year and 6-1 in the ACC with a win last weekend over North Carolina. Running back David Wilson has seven straight games where he rushed for over 100 yards per game but was denied in this game. He has rushed for 1,442 yards this season is just 26 yards shy of the top mark in FBS. He is complemented by 254-pound QB Logan Thomas, who has nine rushing scores on the season

Virginia is 8-3 on the year and 5-2 in the conference. Last week they defeated Florida State 14-13 with some controversial calls going their way late in the game. Virginia has surrendered just eight rushing scores all season. Virginia has started the same five players on the offensive line every game this season for the first time since 2004.

Logan Thomas will need to play well to get them in the win column in this game. The Cavaliers are 6-5 ATS and 2-9 O/U and the Hokies are 3-8 ATS and 4-6 O/U for the year. David Wilson is the difference maker as Virginia Tech covers -5 to win by a touchdown.

Tanners Tip: Va Tech -5

What do the top sports handicappers have for NFL Sunday? Only OffshoreInsiders.com has the answer.

Week 12 NFL picks are up now and so is the morning line for games on November 27. One of the big questions that gamblers are asking is can The Canadian Crew continue the historic year.

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The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots big Monday Night Football battle picks against the spread are posted. But here are some fantasy football odds and player prop bets for tonight’s ESPN game.

Top expert pick on this game: It is without question one of the best season in football betting history. Since the lockout ended, the wunderkinds are 40-13 with all NFL picks. Miami -2 AFC East Best Bet of the Year and Detroit made it 2-1 yesterday. Tonight, it is the AFC Monday Night Best Bet of the Year, plus an NHL lock is up. Let the historic winning continue and get those free days with the monthly pass on OffshoreInsiders.com

NFL week 11 betting picks are up from the best handicappers. Here is the morning line for NFL odds on November 20.

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III. State struggled defending such offenses in non-conference games last season. The Colonels will utilize the 1-3-1 set, make the usual backdoor cuts to the basket and allow their frontcourt to take long jump shots.It’s an early test for the Bulldogs’ frontcourt, especially junior Renardo Sidney. The 6-foot-10 big man is a force inside but has yet to be truly tested outside the paint.

IV. It will mark the college debut of freshman forward Timmy Knipp after the 2011 Gatorade Player of the year in the state of Kentucky committed to EKU in August. The 6-foot-8 Knipp averaged 31.1 points per game last season to lead the state of Kentucky. He had offers from UTEP, Duquesne, Marshall, Radford, Tennessee Tech and James Madison.

V. Eastern will get surprising production from two first year players. Two freshmen are expected to round out the starting line-up at Mississippi State – Timmy Knipp and Eric Stutz. Knipp hit a pair of three-pointers in the exhibition game on Nov. 2 while Stutz posted a team-high 14 points.

VI. E KENTUCKY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points since 1997.

VII. MISSISSIPPI ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.

VIII. MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

IX. Bulldogs are 5-11-2 ATS in their last 18 home games.

X. Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite.

XI. Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.

XII. Bulldogs are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games.

XIII. Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater.

XIV. Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.