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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate 2.4% vs. 2.6% last

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for the 4Q of 2017 came in at 2.4%
vs. 2.6% last (from December 9th). This runs in contrast to the sharper
fall and value from JP Morgan released just prior to this report.

As per their website:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.4 percent on
December 14, down from 2.6 percent on December 9. The forecast of
fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from
2.3 percent to 2.1 percent after this morning's retail sales report from
the U.S. Census Bureau.
The next GDPNow update is Friday, December 16.

The NY Fed also releases a GDP estimate. Their last report came on
December 2nd and showed a 2.7% estimate for GDP - more in line with the
Atlanata Fed. However, they did not report last week as it came during
the FOMCs quiet period before the meeting this week. Below are the
highlights from that report.

The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2016:Q4.

News from this week's data releases provided mixed signals, but overall had a positive impact on the nowcast.

Real
gross domestic income and labor market data had the largest positive
contributions to the nowcast, only slightly offset by negative news from
personal consumption expenditures.

The lower retail sales this week will have had a negative impact of course.