No Nuke Republics the Ukraine and Kazakhstan Are the Most Likely to Want to Hold onto Nuclear Weapons, but Pressures from the West Can Deter Them

Article excerpt

SUDDENLY, the breakup of the Soviet Union has handed the Bush
administration a real chance to get serious about preventing the
spread of nuclear weapons.

The USSR's collapse could lead to the birth of new nuclear-armed
states, most likely the Ukraine and Kazakhstan. If these nations go
nuclear, ethnic tensions and political instability will be
dangerously exacerbated. More broadly, global efforts to halt
nuclear proliferation would be undercut.

This alarming prospect need not come to pass. A concerted
Western effort to stop this potential proliferation could ease the
gravest international issue arising from Soviet disintegration. At
the same time, a tough Western stand would deter would-be
proliferators elsewhere.

Regrettably, George Bush's recent speech on nuclear arms missed
an opportunity to warn the republics directly on nuclear weapons.
Moreover, it is no longer clear that Mikhail Gorbachev will have
the authority to make good on his pledge to scrap or withdraw the
tactical nuclear weapons in the republics.

At the moment, it is unclear whether the Ukraine and Kazakhstan
ultimately will claim the sizable portions of the USSR's atomic
arsenal stationed on their territories. For now, the 27,000-warhead
Soviet stockpile remains under central control, where it is subject
to elaborate safeguards against unauthorized launch, theft, or
misuse.

Yet politicians in both the Ukraine and Kazakhstan are sending
mixed signals about their nuclear intentions. Even if such
proliferation seems unlikely, the mere possibility calls for the
West to establish firm opposition now.

Ukrainian leader Leonid Kravchuk has reportedly assured
President Bush that he wants a Ukraine free of nuclear weapons once
it has gained full independence. But that hopeful statement cannot
be accepted at face value.

Mr. Kravchuk himself, an opportunistic ex-communist who made a
late conversion to the nationalist cause, has given vague and
somewhat contradictory responses when quizzed about the Ukraine's
nuclear intentions.

Last year the Ukrainian parliament passed a nuclear-free
declaration, and initially after the coup Kiev indicated that the
weapons should be removed, presumably to Russia. However, Rukh, the
Ukrainian nationalist movement that may dominate politics after
coming elections, has objected. Some Rukh officials feel that the
Ukraine would be comparatively weakened if the weapons are moved to
Russia, a historical rival.

Ukrainians were understandably worried by a warning from Boris
Yeltsin's Russian government that breakaway republics could not
assume that current borders with Russia would remain unchanged. The
Ukrainians now believe that nuclear weapons on their soil will be
useful bargaining chips in independence talks with Russia and the
central government. …