San Diego shows robust job growth

In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013, photo, job seekers line up to speak with a State Dept. employee about job opportunities in the federal government during a job fair in Boston. market. Weekly unemployment benefit applications rose just 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 336,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, March, 21, 2013. Over the past four weeks, the average number of applications has dropped by 7,500 to 339,750. That’s the lowest since February 2008, just three months into the recession. (
— AP

In this Monday, Feb. 25, 2013, photo, job seekers line up to speak with a State Dept. employee about job opportunities in the federal government during a job fair in Boston. market. Weekly unemployment benefit applications rose just 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 336,000, the Labor Department said Thursday, March, 21, 2013. Over the past four weeks, the average number of applications has dropped by 7,500 to 339,750. That’s the lowest since February 2008, just three months into the recession. (
/ AP

San Diego County’s 2012 job growth was the most robust since the turn of the century, according to data released Friday by the state.

The average number of people with a payroll job in the county in the 12 months of 2012 increased by 25,400 — or 2.06 percent — over the 12 months of 2011. That percentage increase was last matched in 2001.

“I think it shows that the economy is on a pretty solid footing now in terms of growth,” said Alan Gin, an economist at the University of San Diego.

Still, the last half of 2012 showed slowing in payroll job growth. The county’s January unemployment rate, which is not seasonally adjusted, increased from 8.2 percent in December to 8.6 percent in January as employers cut 22,000 jobs. About half of those job cuts came in retail and tourism due to layoffs at the end of the holiday season. In January 2012, the unemployment rate in San Diego County was 9.5 percent.

The state Employment Development Department on Friday released jobs data for January, plus revisions to originally reported monthly payroll numbers for 2012. The number of San Diegans on payrolls last year was revised upward by 8,500. The revised data show that county employers added 30,600 employees between January 2012 and January 2013, a number that economists consider healthy.

“Even though the unemployment rate went up, it’s seasonal,“ Gin said. “2013 is actually going to be a pretty good year for the local economy.”

Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University, cautioned that a big chunk of the 30,600 came earlier in 2012. Three out of the year’s last six months saw job losses.

“You had very strong growth until the last few months,” Reaser said. “The national economy we know slowed down as well.”

The state data showed that in an average month in 2012, there were 1,258,800 San Diegans on a payroll, with an average unemployment rate of 8.9 percent. The average number of people working was the highest since 2008, when the payroll number was 1,298,700. The next year, the number of people working fell by 5.19 percent.

The 2.06 percent payroll gain in 2012 outpaced gains of 1.73 percent and 1.52 percent during the housing boom of 2005 and 2006, when the increase in jobs was about 20,000 each year.

“The recovery in the mid 2000s was actually not very strong jobwise, at least on percentage terms,” Gin said.

Gin said if the 30,600 year-over-year pace continues through 2013, then next year’s average increase would be 2.43 percent.

Esmael Adibi, director of Chapman University’s A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research, called the upward revisions significant and said it’s an indication the job market is gaining strength.

“The big question now is if it’s going to be sustainable,” he said.

Adibi pointed to a potential drag on the economy moving forward from the end of the payroll tax holiday — which caused the Social Security tax to increase from 4.2 to 6.2 percent beginning in January — and the quarter-percent increase in Califonia sales tax due to the passing of Proposition 30 in November. San Diegans now pay 8 percent sales tax in the city.

Adibi also pointed out that the county’s retail industry’s labor force is 0.7 percent smaller than it was last January, meaning consumer spending could be lacking.

The February unemployment and payroll growth data for the state and county will be released next Friday.

“February’s numbers will be important to monitor to see if political uncertainty in Washington and impending sequestration may have continued to slow down hiring in the San Diego region,” Reaser said.

Reaser said when adjusting for seasonal factors, such as the annual post-holiday season retail layoffs, the 22,000 lost jobs in January was a loss of 500. Gin, alternatively, adjusted the loss of 22,000 jobs to a gain of 8,500 jobs. Both calculated the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 8.4 percent.

The professional and business services field accounted for 11,000 of the 30,600 new jobs between January 2012 and January 2013, with 6,400 of them coming in administrative and support and waste services. Professional, science and technical services accounted for 3,900 of those professional and business services jobs. Education and health services — another category — added 5,700 jobs. Manufacturing was flat, while construction added 1,600 workers.

Statewide, California’s jobless rate remained at a seasonally adjusted 9.8 percent in January, the same as it was in December. Employers added 1,700 payroll jobs in January. From January 2012 to January 2013, nonfarm payroll jobs increased statewide by 254,900 jobs, a 1.8 percent increase.

Since the economic recovery began in February 2010, the state has added 681,300 jobs.

November’s jobless rate was revised upward a tenth of a percentage point to 9.9 percent, when the rate dropped below 10 percent for the first time since the beginning of the recession.

The national unemployment rate in January was 7.9 percent, and 7.7 percent in February.