Loose Change

One of the truly poetic subplots of the recent flap over U.S. steel
tariffs was the skill with which the Europeans played politics. In
early November, shortly after the World Trade Organization (WTO)
deemed the Bush administration's 20-month-old tariffs illegal, the
European Union threatened to retaliate with tariffs of its own--on
products that just happened to be key exports of crucial electoral
states like Wisconsin and Florida. The proposed sanctions were
designed to affect "products that are sensitive to important U.S.
constituencies," an EU spokesperson told The Christian Science
Monitor, with what must have been the world's biggest grin on her
face. "They are very vocal sectors that would make their case to
the administration." Why was this so poetic? Because it was the White House that had
kicked off the political game back when the president first imposed
the tariffs last March. Even then, it wasn't hard to see that the
chief beneficiaries of the decision, which came after heavy
lobbying by the steel industry, would be steelworkers in swing
states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The tariffs also
happened to be suspiciously timed to expire in March of 2005, just
after President Bush would be sworn in for a hoped-for second term.
As it turns out, the tariffs were imposed at the suggestion of
chief White House political adviser Karl Rove over the objections
of just about every member of the Bush economic team. (It was only
when Rove realized that European retaliation would be more
politically costly than junking the tariffs that the administration
reversed course.)
Of course, no administration has ever banished political
considerations from economic policy-making. Former Clinton economic
officials, for example, complain about being overruled on
air-conditioner regulations, which environmentalists demanded even
though the increase in cost far outweighed the increase in
efficiency. But the extent to which this president has exploited
economic policy as a tool for his own reelection is nearly
unprecedented.
The tariffs were only the first step in the Bushies' unique
experiment with electoral-map economics. Two months later came a
porcine agricultural bill, which, Bush declared, would "promote
farmer independence and preserve the farm way of life for
generations." But farm life wasn't the only thing the bill was
crafted to preserve. The measure graciously divvied up $20 billion
per year among voters concentrated in key Midwestern states like
Iowa and Minnesota, and key Southern states like Georgia and
Arkansas.
Then, this spring, Treasury Secretary John Snow set to work on a
curious new exchange-rate policy, one that just happened to provide
a boon to the slumping manufacturing sector. Apparently abandoning
an eight-year consensus on the nation's strong-dollar policy (or
else several centuries of consensus on the meaning of the word
"strong"), Snow announced that his definition of a "strong" dollar
was "something people are willing to hold" and that is "a good
medium of exchange." The dollar promptly nose-dived. Today it
remains at historical lows against the euro and a three-year low
against the yen, making U.S. goods remarkably cheap abroad.
Coincidentally, American manufacturers recently reported their
highest quarterly production increase in 20 years.
Finally, just last month, as the WTO was winding its way toward the
steel- tariff ruling, the president made a further mockery of the
free-trade principles he touted on the campaign trail. Using an
obscure provision of the bill that ratified China's ascension to
the WTO, the president imposed strict quotas on imports of Chinese
bras, bathrobes, and various knit products. It's possible that the
president was genuinely moved by the plight of garment-sewers in
South Carolina, who've seen their ranks diminished from 170,000 in
the 1980s to fewer than 10,000 today. But, if that were the case,
you'd probably have expected him to extend the quota beyond January
1, 2005, which is when WTO rules force the United States to
eliminate all textile barriers. Amazingly, he declined. Instead, it
looks like the White House was looking ahead to next fall's
election, when its Democratic opponent could be an outspoken trade
skeptic like Dick Gephardt.
In the history of presidential politics, only Richard Nixon rivals
George W. Bush's level of cynicism about the economy. Nixon used
just about every economic trick in the book to ensure his 1972
reelection: Throughout 1971, he made good on the generous social
spending he'd promised in that year's State of the Union address.
Late that year, he took the dollar off the gold standard so the Fed
could increase the money supply without restraint. By early 1972,
Nixon was reportedly even ordering his Cabinet to spend money,
which helped turn a $3 billion surplus into a $23 billion deficit
in less than two years. The consequences were hard to miss once
Nixon lifted wage and price controls in 1974: Inflation spiraled,
and interest rates rocketed into the double digits. Before long,
the United States was on the edge of one of the deepest recessions
since the 1930s.
But even Nixon's irresponsibility pales in comparison with Bush's.
What makes W. qualitatively worse is the larger fiscal dynamic at
work. That is, to ensure his own reelection, Nixon needed to focus
on only one objective: buying off swing voters. But, thanks to the
rise of the conservative movement, Bush actually has two
objectives: He must buy off swing voters but also appease his
conservative base--often the people most incensed by the policies
used to accomplish goal number one. How does Bush square that
apparent circle? With lavish, long-term tax cuts that
disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
Politically, the effect is positive: Swing-state voters are happy
because they have their manufacturing jobs and their farm
subsidies. Conservatives are happy because they have their tax
cuts. The problem is that, economically, each tactic reinforces the
negative effects of the other: Monkeying around with the dollar the
way Snow has drives up long-term interest rates; so do the massive
long-term deficits caused by the administration's upper-income tax
cuts. Meanwhile, tariffs and quotas drive up prices for consumers,
which, among other things, leads to inflation and ultimately higher
interest rates as well. Keep heading in that direction and don't be
surprised if, not long after 2005, Bush's strong recovery turns
anemic. Of course, he could always trot out John Snow to redefine
the word "strong" again.