Strategic Trends: Introduction
Strategic Trends is an independent view of the future produced by the Development,
Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), a Directorate General within the UK’s Ministry of
Defence (MOD). It is a source document for the development of UK Defence Policy.
This edition of Strategic Trends is benchmarked at December 2006. It is a live
document and will be updated regularly on our website as new thinking emerges and
trends develop.
Articles will be added to the website periodically to cover specific topics in greater detail.
Although extensive efforts have been made to verify facts contained in Strategic Trends,
readers are cheerfully invited to inform the DCDC of any inconsistencies or inaccuracies.

Conditions of Release
The findings contained in this edition of Strategic Trends do not represent an official
position of Her Majesty’s Government or the UK MOD. The information is, however,
Crown Copyright.

Departmental Direction
Strategic Trends is part of the UK MOD Strategic Context Process, from which the
Department derives guidance about strategic challenges and opportunities, which is used
to shape the UK’s future Defence requirements. MOD direction on the DCDC Strategic
Trends programme stresses the requirement for a comprehensive, independent
approach:

DCDC’s Strategic Trends Programme should aim to provide a detailed analysis of the
future strategic context for Defence out to 30 years. This will be an essential input into
policy development and major outputs include:
•

A historically and theme-based analysis of the future strategic context;

•

Analysis of the key risks and shocks, including an assessment of their
probability, frequency and magnitude;

•

Identification of the generic Defence and Security implications of this analysis.

Building on previous editions of Strategic Trends, the analysis should adopt a
comprehensive approach to the key drivers and deduce the salient themes out to 30

i

years. The analysis should also present a â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;stock-takeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; of those developments likely to
be important at the 15 year point.
In compiling the analysis, the Strategic Trends programme should make use of a broad
and diverse evidence base. Much of the value of the Strategic Trends programme
derives from its independence from MOD decision-making and the aim should be to
draw together thought and opinion from as wide a constituency as possible.

Contact Points
Contact details for the Strategic Trends project team are listed at page 89.

Published January 2007 and updated regularly on the DCDC Websites (see page 89).

ii

The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre
The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) is based on sites in MOD Main
Building and at Shrivenham;

Mission
The DCDC will provide the intellectual bases that inform coherent decisions in Defence
policy, capability development and operations, both now and into the future.

Principal Outputs
Provide cross-dimensional analysis of the future context for Defence out to 30 years.
Analyse, assess and articulate the framework within which future military capabilities
and force structures are developed.
Initiate, formulate and validate concepts to shape coherent capability development.
Articulate and provide doctrine at the strategic, operational and Joint tactical levels that
incorporates enduring principles and best practice.
Develop, articulate and promote the Defence role in crises and conflict as part of the
multi-agency Comprehensive Approach.
Maintain legal compliance and sustain a favourable legal environment for Defence
activity and capability.

iii

Foreword by the Director General, Development, Concepts &
Doctrine â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Rear Admiral Chris Parry CBE
Introduction
I am delighted to present our independent
Strategic Trends programme, which is our
assessment of the strategic context out to
2036. It is the result of over a yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s research
by my team and me. The programme not
only underpins and guides our wider work
here at the Development, Doctrine and
Concepts Centre (DCDC), but also informs
the development of the United Kingdomâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s
Defence Policy.
This document will be updated and refined on
a regular basis as new evidence and thinking
emerge, and will be available in both
documentary and web-based formats.
Readers of the last edition of Strategic
Trends will notice several substantial
Rear Admiral C J Parry CBE
changes in our analytical method. Most
importantly, we have refined our cross-dimensional approach to ensure that
interactions between dimensions are thoroughly examined, together with the
potential for significant shocks. Secondly, we have presented a range of divergent
outcomes, derived from probability assessments, to indicate our confidence in
something happening and the strength of the evidence on which judgements are
based.

Understanding Change
In our analysis, we have tried to steer a measured course between the rocks of
simplistic extrapolation from contemporary, emerging features and floating vague,
meaningless generalizations and banalities about the future. Many commentators
anchor themselves in the familiar present and, exploiting the latest fashion and a
series of telling anecdotes, merely tell people what is already happening. Quite
honestly, much of what we have to say, with regard to both continuities and
discontinuities, does not have a conclusion or an ending, happy or otherwise,
because, self-evidently, the future has not happened yet. What we offer are

iv

robust judgements across various alternative futures, which concentrate on the
challenges of the most likely future themes.
Despite the tendency of some to confront the challenges of the future on their own
terms without the context of history and human experience, I make no excuses for
maintaining an intelligent dialogue with the past to make some sense of the future.
As the great English historian Edward Gibbon reflected:
‘I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp
of experience. I know no way of judging the future, but by the past’.
With this in mind, we have been realistic. The future is characterised by a
bewildering number of variables and all trends inter-relate with each other and
inter-react in dynamic ways; some judgements are based on uncertain and limited
evidence, others rely on political decisions, which can be reversed or accelerated,
and all are vulnerable to unforeseeable events and the vagaries of human action.
I am, anyway, conscious that there is seldom any reward for those who get the
future right. As John Gray has said:
‘People who worry about problems that others are not worrying about
are irritating and are disparaged after the event. People who were
right when others were wrong are even more irritating’.
We believe that the future will happen as a result of long-wave themes and
developments that unite the past, the present and the future. However, one
constant evident in history – the power of contingency and surprise – will continue
to dominate our future, which will be influenced and punctuated by unexpected
events, startling surprises, major discontinuities and the pervasive operation of
chance. Quite apart from these considerations, people and countries will conduct
themselves in accordance with their social and cultural characteristics and their
perception of their historical experience and future prospects.
Therefore, this piece of work seeks to identify and examine likely patterns in order
to suggest reasonable broad-order possibilities and potential outcomes, whose
risks, effects and extremes it might be necessary to mitigate or avoid. It is
necessarily a rational attempt at objective, dispassionate assessment, but I would
ask readers to remember that, to paraphrase von Moltke, parts of our projected
landscape are unlikely to survive first contact with the future, mainly and
inconveniently because of the tendency of human beings to interfere with the
scenery and to act and react in unforeseen, non-linear ways. Nor do similar
causes lead to similar outcomes; things are just too complex, with a great many
variables, decisions and actions that interact with human behaviour in an almost
organic manner. Indeed, discontinuities, insecurities and volatilities seem to be

v

proliferating all the time and future changes seem to be accelerating towards us at
a faster rate than we might have expected.
Because of the difficulty of judging long-term outcomes in a rapidly changing
world, our assessments are probability-based, rather than predictive; an exercise
that is closer to establishing the odds on several runners winning a race, rather
than gambling on a particular runner to win. Therefore, while we express clearly
what we believe to be the most likely outcomes, we also provide assessments of
lower probability alternatives. For example, a decline of confidence in globalized
markets is possible and might cause international rivalries to intensify, increasing
the risk of inter-state warfare. Therefore, while planning on the basis that major
strategic powers have a shared interest in maintaining global economic stability
remains reasonable, the need to understand the potential for conflict between
them will persist.
The dynamic and fluid nature of the future strategic context demands that we also
consider the potential for shocks that represent major discontinuities in what might
rationally be divined. Most of the shocks that we have identified are based on
plausible triggers: a mega-seismic disaster or the unintended outcomes of
technological developments. Others, however, are highly conjectural, possibly
appearing to some to verge on the fantastic. I would urge the reader, as a guard
against scepticism, to consider in his/her own experience which shocks would
have seemed likely 30 years ago.
I am aware that we may have overestimated the pace and effect of short-term
change and underestimated the scale and nature of long-term change. My excuse
is that it is difficult, indeed reckless, to imagine contexts that are fundamentally,
rather than incrementally, different from the present, especially as the drivers of
change are probably ones that have not been identified or understood yet.
Consequently, we have sought the opinions of people who are expert in their
specialist fields rather than those who profess to understand how the future will
unfold.
Taken together, I believe that our work provides a complex, but readily discernible
tapestry of outcomes, which should aid not only the Defence decision-maker, but
also stimulate a wider audience. While this work is the product of analysis by the
DCDC, it is only right to acknowledge the significant external assistance we have
received and many contributors are acknowledged by name. I wish to express my
thanks and appreciation to those who have helped us and look forward to
continuing these highly productive relationships in the future and to developing
new partnerships.

Strategic Trends: Method
The Purpose of Strategic Trends
The need for Defence to understand the future strategic context was articulated in the
Strategic Defence Review (1998), which confirmed the longâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;term nature of Defence
planning and the need for a wide-ranging understanding of the complex strategic
environment. Strategic Trends provides a measure of context and coherence in an
uncertain predictive area characterized by risk, ambiguity and change.
The DCDC approach goes beyond identifying the potential future military threats to which
our Armed Forces will have to respond, and looks at the developments in areas that will
shape the wider strategic context within which Defence will have to interact. For example,
the Study addresses subjects such as: access to resources, the evolving international
system and developments in Society.
Defence decisions about how to act and react in relation to these issues are considered
over time, with an appropriate balance of judgement and risk, and take time to form and
implement. This is entirely proper because the consequences of these decisions tend to
endure for some time. Weapon systems and platforms can take more than 15 years to
design and acquire and may be retained in service for 20 â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 30 years (some may in future
run for up to 50 years). Other significant examples include the development of long-term
Defence relationships, post conflict peace-building and sustaining the long-term personnel
requirements of the Armed Forces. In addition, in terms of value for money and strategic
resilience, Defence has to make a prudent assessment of those capabilities the Armed
Forces will need to sustain a consistently credible military posture over time, while
allowing some flexibility for the unexpected, and for rapid change.
One of the strengths of the Strategic Trends assessment is its independence from
routine staffing and wider Defence decision-making. This helps to ensure its objectivity,
intellectual rigour and freedom from accusations of compromise, lobby-group pressure or
partiality. Consequently, Strategic Trends is able to inform Defence decisions, without
being constrained by the latest good idea, fashionable trend or received wisdom. Some of
the findings in Strategic Trends will, therefore, challenge views which derive from
existing or transient circumstances, rather than from long-wave trends and from the
enduring features of the strategic context.

x

Scope
Strategic Trends presents an understanding of the changes that are likely to take place
during the next 30 years, by considering major trend-based outcomes in 5 dimensions:
•

Resource.

•

Social.

•

Political.

•

Science and Technology.

•

Military.

Analytical Approach
The Strategic Trends approach starts by identifying the major trends in each of these
dimensions and analyses ways in which these trends are likely to develop and interact
during the next 30 years, in order to establish a range of Probable Outcomes. Nothing in
the future is guaranteed, of course, and Strategic Trends varies the strength of its
assessments to highlight sets of Alternative Outcomes that, while less probable, are
nonetheless highly plausible, for example:
•

By 2010, most people (above 50%) will be living in urban rather than rural
environments. Poor housing, weak infrastructure and social deprivation will
combine with low municipal capacity to create a range of new instability risks in
areas of rapid urbanization, especially in those urban settlements that contain a
high proportion of unplanned and shanty development.

•

Alternatively, a less even process of globalization may lead to lower-density
settlement patterns, with people straddling rural and urban-based livelihoods,
resulting in extensive browning of the countryside.

Having established trend-based outcomes of varying probability, Strategic
Trends articulates a number of specific Risks associated with each dimension to
highlight the way some of the more adverse consequences could manifest themselves
and affect Defence business.

xi

Strategic Trends: Trend Analysis
0 Years

Trends

15 Years

Dimensions
Resource
Social
Political
Technological
Military

30 Years

sible
Plau

tiv e

Probable
Alterna

Where we
are now

tive

Plau
sible

Divergent Outcomes

na
Alter

Where might
we be?

Figure 1 - Strategic Trends: Outcome Assessment
Strategic Trends then identifies significant Defence and Security Implications
associated with the outcomes. These include a brief assessment of the security
challenges that could arise and the general responses that might be required. Examples
associated with urbanization include:
â&#x20AC;˘

It is likely that unregulated urbanization will result in future adversaries who have
highly-developed urban survival and combat skills. They may consequently
choose to pursue their objectives and conduct operations in sprawling towns and
cities which will already have experienced endemic lawlessness and high levels of
violence.

Having analysed a range of probability-based outcomes, the potential for major strategic
discontinuities is considered by introducing contingent Strategic Shocks. These are
either, typically, very unlikely, or likely to occur at extremely infrequent intervals. Historical
examples of the sort of discontinuity which the Strategic Shocks highlight include:

xii

•

The destruction of Minoan civilization as a result of volcanic eruption in 1450 BC.

•

The impact of the Black Death on 14th century Europe.

•

The attack on the United States in September 2001.

As well as establishing trend-based outcomes across the 5 dimensions (over 500 in total),
Strategic Trends seeks to identify and interpret the likely pattern of change over the next
30 years. In doing so, it assesses that during this period human activity will be dominated
and affected by 3 pervasive Ring Road Issues:
•

Climate Change.

•

Globalization.

•

Global Inequality.

In order to provide a coherent framework and to achieve a systematic understanding of
possible human responses to these and other drivers of change, Strategic Trends has
synthesized its trend-based outcomes within 4 global Key Themes:
•

Population and Resources.

•

Identity and Interest.

•

Governance and Order.

•

Knowledge and Innovation.

These groupings allow the derivation of outcomes from key drivers of change and are
intended to help:
•

Understand interactions between the trends and other features observed in the
discrete dimensions of DCDC’s Strategic Trends.

•

Distinguish between the long-term significant changes and short-term turbulence.

•

Identify major challenges and opportunities in the future strategic context.

xiii

Expressing Probability
All findings within Strategic Trends are presented with an indication of confidence, using
the expressions of probability listed below. These are emboldened in italics within the
text. Owing to the high number of variables, not least the operation of chance and the
intervention of human beings, trends-based analysis can never offer precise predictive
analysis and these terms provide an indication of confidence based on the available
evidence and an assessment of risk.

Assessment of Probability
Description

Probability %

Confidence Level

Will

>95%

Near Certainty

Likely/Probably

>60%

High

May/Possibly

>10%

Low-Medium

Unlikely/Improbable

<10%

Low

Sources
The need for rigour and objectivity means that wide external consultation and review are
required if Strategic Trends is to be both comprehensive and independent in its view of
the future. The Team have therefore exploited a wide range of sources and experts
beyond the UK MOD, in and beyond Government, at home and abroad. The extensive
assistance and advice that has been received in developing this edition of Strategic
Trends has been excellent and individual contributions are acknowledged at Page 90.
It is also important to avoid analysing trends solely from a Western standpoint. The Team
therefore, tested their findings against the views of an international, and largely nonWestern, peer group. This was achieved by exposure of the ideas in conferences and
commissioning a survey through LEAD International, a non-profit organisation with a
global network of opinion-formers and leaders in business, government, the media, NGOs
and the academic sector. The results of this survey can be found on page 86.

xiv

Strategic Trends: Key Findings
â&#x20AC;&#x153;The benefit of strategic futures work is not that it predicts the future, which
is unpredictable, or enables organizations to control it. It is about
rehearsing possibilities, so one is better able to respond if they happenâ&#x20AC;? 1

Introduction
A defining feature during the next 30 years will be the constant tension
between greater interdependence and intensifying competition. This feature
will stimulate competing strategies based around the extent to which
individuals and communities wish to exploit change, or resist it.
During the next 30 years, every aspect of human life will change at an unprecedented
rate, throwing up new features, challenges and opportunities. Three areas of change, or
Ring Road issues, will touch the lives of everyone on the planet and will underpin these
processes: climate change, globalization and global inequality (see panels below).
Progressive climate change will shape the physical environment within which a rapidly
expanding world population will live, influencing variable access to habitable land, food
and water. The volume of the world economy will grow more quickly than at any time in
human history and, in socio-economic terms, will become more tightly integrated, creating
globalized interdependencies and enabling multiple supra-national linkages in all areas of
human endeavour.
While life for most people is likely to improve materially, a significant number will
continue to experience hardship, and unevenness and fluctuations within a globalized
market-based economy will still mean that life will be uncertain for most. In all but the
most affluent societies, rapid, large shifts in global markets, which are increasingly
sensitive to uneven supply and changing demand, will result in potentially dramatic
changes in personal fortune and confidence. Globalized communications will feed
aspirations, heighten expectations and will serve to expose differences in advantage and
opportunity, stimulating grievance and raising the significance of global inequality as a
social and political issue.

Climate Change
There is compelling evidence to indicate that climate change is occurring and that the
atmosphere will continue to warm at an unprecedented rate throughout the 21st Century. A
scientific consensus holds that a large part of this warming is attributable to human activities,
primarily through the concentration of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Change will be
intensified and accelerated by the diminution of natural carbon-capture processes (such as
forests and marine life) and the reduction of the polar ice-caps. Uncertainty remains as to the
precise rate and character of expected changes over the next century. Climate science is
complex, with linear cause and effect relationships not yet readily apparent; therefore, the
consequences of climate change will vary in their impact in time, incidence and geographical
extent. It may be a very unstable and unpredictable process, involving both progressive
evolution and sudden instabilities. Major consequences are likely to include melting icecaps, thermal expansion of the oceans, and changes to ocean currents and flows, with
seawater becoming more acidic as CO2 transfers from the atmosphere. On land, some
regions will experience desertification, others will experience permanent inundation, and
tundra and permafrost are likely to melt and release methane, possibly in large amounts.
Global climate change will reduce land for habitation and will result in changing patterns of
agriculture and fertility, while tropical diseases, like malaria, are also likely to move North and
into temperate zones. There will be an increased risk of extreme weather events, threatening
densely populated littoral, urban and farming regions with eccentric growing seasons, flooding
and storm damage. Climate change will remain highly politicized: although the relationship
between causes and effects is likely to be increasingly understood as more evidence and
computing power becomes available, responses will be contested and affected by selfinterest.

The melting rate of the Perito Moreno Glacier in Argentina has doubled in recent years.
Picture Taken 16th October 2003 - Source: Empics.com

2

Globalization
During the next 30 years, the volume of transactions, conducted irrespective of the
physical distance between those engaged, will continue to expand, shaping and
improving everyday life for millions of people. A key feature of globalization will be the
continuing internationalization of markets for goods, services and labour, which will
integrate geographically dispersed sets of customers and suppliers. This will be an
engine for accelerating economic growth, but will also be a source of risk, as local
markets become increasingly exposed to destabilizing fluctuations in the wider global
economy. These outcomes will be facilitated by the rapid development of global
telecommunications resulting in a pervasive information environment in which much of the
global population will be â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;online all the timeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;. Also, there will continue to be winners and
losers in a global economy led by market forces, especially so in the field of labour, which
will be subject to particularly ruthless laws of supply and demand. Life will, as a result,
be competitive, dynamic and fluid. Socially, looser forms of political, cultural and
economic association will multiply, whose existence will be largely virtual and
disassociated, linking members who are physically dispersed, but who share common
interests and seek competitive advantage by association. Politically, globalization will
raise levels of interdependence between states that are increasingly integrated within the
globalized economy.

Global Inequality
While material conditions for most people are likely to improve over the next 30 years, the
gap between rich and poor will probably increase and absolute poverty will remain a
global challenge. Despite their rapid growth, significant per capita disparities will exist in
countries such as China and India and smaller, but traditionally more affluent Western
economies. In some regions - notably areas of Sub-Saharan Africa â&#x20AC;&#x201C; a fall in poverty may
be reversed. Differentials in material well-being will be more explicit through globalization
and increased access to more readily and cheaply available telecommunications.
Disparities in wealth and advantage will therefore become more obvious, with their
associated grievances and resentments, even among the growing numbers of people who
are likely to be materially more prosperous than their parents and grandparents.
Absolute poverty and comparative disadvantage will fuel perceptions of injustice among
those whose expectations are not met, increasing tension and instability, both within and
between societies and resulting in expressions of violence such as disorder, criminality,
terrorism and insurgency. They may also lead to the resurgence of not only anti-capitalist
ideologies, possibly linked to religious, anarchist or nihilist movements, but also to
populism and the revival of Marxism.

3

Owing to this increased interdependence and intensifying competition, most states will be
bound together by their economic linkages, but will nonetheless be preoccupied by the
need to sustain national economic vitality and political advantage. Individual well-being
will depend increasingly on access to, and exploitation of, opportunity within the
globalized economy, but most people will nonetheless regard the operation of globalized
processes as, in many ways, threatening. This is likely to result in local arrangements to
mitigate the harsher effects of globalization and the rigorous operation of the market on
some countries or communities, in the interests of socio-economic stability or competitive
advantage.
This tension will heighten preoccupation with risk at every level, from the personal to the
international. Contrasting approaches and pragmatic solutions for dealing with risk will
emerge, the nature of which will depend on the extent to which individuals and
communities wish to promote and exploit change, or resist and even reverse it. These
strategies may be cooperative, obstructive, competitive, or even distinctly predatory â&#x20AC;&#x201C; or a
combination of them all over time. The major factors that will influence which approach is
adopted and the ways in which strategies are likely to be shaped are discussed in 4 Key
Themes of: Population and Resources, Interest and Identity, Governance and
Order, and Knowledge and Innovation.

Key Theme 1 - Population and Resources
Sustained population growth, aggressive economic competition and increased
consumption, together with rapid modernization and urbanization, will result in intensive
exploitation and pressure on resources of all kinds. These tendencies will be aggravated
by the consequences of climate change, environmental changes and an increased human
footprint. Consequently, the availability and flow of energy, food and water will be critical
issues, with the potential for fluctuations and imbalances in both production and
distribution, at global, regional and local levels. Resource challenges will intensify in
those areas already badly affected, typically in low and lower-middle income regions
where population expansion has the greatest impact relative to local resources and
economic growth.
The expansion of global media and Information Communications Technology (ICT) will
heighten the sense of grievance and marginalization between ‘haves and have-nots’,
nationally and internationally. This is likely to lead to populism, human crises and
confrontations, typified by inter-communal and inter-ethnic conflicts at local level, but,
when related to access to strategic resources necessary to sustain developed or
developing economies, may increase the incidence and risk of international confrontation.
Communicable disease will continue to be a feature of human life; while familiar diseases
will be eradicated or mitigated through prophylaxis or cure, others will emerge, of varying
intensity and impact, alongside the constant risk of low incidence, but potentially high
impact, pandemics.

Population and Resources - Potential Implications
•

Competition for resources of all kinds will intensify. Developed and developing
economies will seek political and economic partnerships with states to guarantee
supply. Moral compromises may be made in relation to some regimes.

•

There will be an increased risk of humanitarian catastrophe in the most
vulnerable regions, caused by a mixture of climate change, resource pressures,
uneven distribution of wealth, the effect of disease and the failure of authorities to
cope with population growth and urbanization.

•

Migration and urbanization, within countries and across regions, will increase
pressure on infrastructure and governance and may destabilize existing
communities.

•

Authorities will be challenged by changing demographics, in particular the
impact of an increasing youth population in some developing regions and
countries - poor employment prospects and unfulfilled expectations may lead to
vulnerability to populist and other extreme messages.

•

Sustained economic growth in developing countries is likely to compel societies
to re-evaluate the role of women, who will play an increasing role in generating
wealth.

6

Drivers of Change
•

Economic Growth. The global economy is likely to continue to grow at 2-3%2 per
annum out to at least 2020, accompanied by general improvements in material
well-being, with more dramatic growth in the Asia-Pacific Region. However,
growth will be uneven, fluctuating over time and between regions, with SubSaharan Africa likely to lag behind other regions because of environmental,
political and demographic challenges, linked to endemic corruption.

•

Population Growth. The global population is likely to grow from 6.5bn to 8.5bn by
2035.3 The greatest growth will take place in regions likely to face continuing
material and economic risks. For example, the population of Sub-Saharan Africa
is likely to grow by 81% to over 1.3bn by 2035, 15% of which is likely to be undernourished.4 With more widespread availability of birth-control measures and
improved life expectancy, economic status and aspiration may increasingly govern
birth rates. However, cultural mores in some countries will persist, maintaining
high levels of reproduction.

•

Resource Competition. Economic growth and increased consumption will result in
greater demand and competition for essential resources. Demand for energy is
likely to grow by more than half again by 2035 and fossil fuels will have to meet
more than 80% of this increase.5 Major reserves are in politically unstable regions
and primary consumer nations are likely to be increasingly reluctant to trust
security of supply to market forces and the integrity of the international system.

•

Diseases. Several communicable diseases will continue to have a significant
impact on population and development and, without effective control measures,
may spread from developing regions to more settled and affluent areas. Some
diseases will re-emerge in strength, like tuberculosis, malaria and cholera, as
environmental changes occur and the pattern of human activity becomes more
diverse and complex. HIV/AIDS will remain prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia
and Eastern Europe and, although a cure and/or vaccination is likely before 2035,
its impact will be long-lasting. The social, economic and human costs of
contagious and communicable diseases will remain high and are likely to slow
economic growth drastically in the worst affected regions for at least the first half of
the period.

2

World Bank: Long Term Economic Prospects: www.worldbank.org downloaded 28 Feb 06.
World Population Prospects: the 2004 Revision Population Database, UN Press Release, 5 Sep 06, on line
www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2005/pop918.doc.htm.
4
The State of food Insecurity in the World 2005, Food and Agriculture Organisation, UN, on line
http:www.fao.org//docrep/fao/008/a0200e/a0200e.pdf.
5
International Energy Agency: World Energy Outlook 2005.
3

7

•

Changing Demographics. The balance between economically inactive and active
members of society will alter significantly and there will be sharp age differentials
between the ageing First World and the youthful Third World. Overall, the global
population is ageing and cyclical unemployment will become more widespread,
especially among the growing urban poor, who are likely to make up 25%6 of the
global population. Marked age imbalances, between regions and countries,
together with gender imbalances, will accentuate and exacerbate existing
tensions, both regionally and internationally. These trends will be partially off-set
by increased immigration to the First World, but will be accompanied by
demographic pressure and containment issues.

•

Environmental Impacts. By the end of the period, nearly two-thirds of the world’s
population will live in areas of water stress,7 while environmental degradation, the
intensification of agriculture, and pace of urbanization may reduce the fertility of,
and access to, arable land. There will be a constant heavy pressure on fish
stocks, which are likely to require careful husbanding if major species are not to
become depleted or extinct. Food and water insecurity will drive mass migration
from some worst affected areas and the effects may be felt in more affluent
regions through distribution problems, specialized agriculture and aggressive
food-pricing.

•

Mass Displacement. Conflict and crises will continue to trigger the displacement
of large numbers of people, mainly into proximate regions, which may find
themselves at risk of instability or exogenous shock.

6

UN-HABITAT (2003) Slums of the World -The Face of Urban poverty in the New Millennium. United Nations Human
Settlements Programme, Nairobi.
7
UN EP: http://www.unep.org/vitalwater/21.htm#21b published 2002.

Urbanization and Human Settlement. By 2035, 60% of the world’s population will
live in urban areas.8 There will be a substantial growth in shanty towns and
unplanned, random urban settlement, increasing the resource cost and
environmental impact. In some cases, rapid, uncontrolled development will
challenge the ability of growing cities’ infrastructure and governance to control and
support the additional settlement and some cities may not cope. Similarly,
populations will increasingly inhabit areas which defy nature and will be at
significant environmental risk. This is particularly true in areas susceptible to
volcanic and seismic activity and in low-lying coastal regions where extreme
weather events and inundation are likely to occur with increasing frequency. This
will result in an increase in humanitarian crises and a significant rise in mass
migration.

Key Theme 2 - Identity and Interest
Globalized communications will provide groups and individuals with greater visibility of the
advantages and disadvantages of others and also the additional means by which they can
exploit opportunities and pursue their own advantage and interests. Physical separation
will decline in significance in the pursuit of interests, but personal and collective physical
security will remain crucial to any substantial, successful enterprise, except in those areas
of opportunity where the long-term gains can reasonably be balanced with the immediate,
moderate risk. The extent to which individual identities are fixed will vary, becoming more
complex as people move between contexts and associations in pursuit of opportunity and
fulfilment. People will continue to draw on their personal and cultural origins, but will
acquire features from adoptive cultural, commercial or physical surroundings to construct
their personal narratives and identities. Collective identities will develop to accommodate
greater diversity of origin and culture where this brings advantage to the community as a
whole, while becoming more exclusive where it does not. Nationhood and ethnicity,
especially in ethnically homogenous and ideologically nationalistic states and
communities, will continue to exert a powerful emotional influence. Migration and more
fluid movement of people across borders will result in the growth of diaspora and
expatriate communities, creating clearly defined enclaves with extensive, persistent links
to countries of origin.

Identity and Interest - Potential Implications
•

While citizenship and physical security will remain important, individual loyalty to
the state and state institutions will become increasingly conditional, based on
personal identity and interest.

•

Nationhood and ethnicity in certain countries will continue to influence human
behaviour and international relations.

•

Diaspora communities and their networks will be dynamic and unpredictable
features of the political, demographic and economic aspects of globalization.

•

Physical and cultural origin will continue to be significant to identity, but will be
employed increasingly selectively, based on their utility in context and in relation
to personal interest.

•

Communities will increasingly form around the pursuit of common interests, and
may dissolve rapidly when they are no longer relevant.

10

Drivers of Change
•

Access to Information. The pervasiveness of ICT will enable more people to
access and exploit increasingly interconnected and sophisticated information
systems. For example, it is estimated that 20% of the African population will
subscribe to internet-enabled mobile phones by 2010.9 The Internet and
associated technologies, together with digitized portable communications, will
increasingly become the means by which a rapidly expanding array of audio,
visual and written information and entertainment products is distributed.

•

Communitarianism. Population growth, especially its concentration in larger
urban settlements (for example, those with more than 500k inhabitants), and more
informal, adaptive ways of working will challenge and strain the capacity of
governments to provide adequate, responsive infrastructure, utility provision and
social services, as well as institutional and personal security. This may lead to a
decline in civic support systems and increased reliance on local communities,
extended family networks and personal patronage.

•

Migration. Migration will increase in response to environmental pressures,
deprivation and the perception of economic opportunities offered in towns and
cities, as well as in wealthier regions and countries. Some 175m people, 3% of
the world’s population, currently live outside their country of origin. That number is
likely to grow to 230m by 2050.10

•

Dynamic Diaspora. ICT developments and advanced mass-transit systems will
facilitate and increase connectivity between ethnic/national diasporae and their
communities of origin. This will tend to reduce incentives for integration and
assimilation and allow self-contained ‘virtual’ communities to exist across
continents in ways not always in step with the interest and aspirations of their host
countries. Remittances from members of diasporae will remain an important
source of capital transfer and redistribution, especially for developing countries.
Less benignly, diaspora will remain a medium for the international transmission of
social risk, including: inter-communal violence, terrorism and transnational crime,
especially trafficking and illicit trade.

•

Growing Cultural Complexity. Increasing numbers of people will become
accustomed to dealing with cultural complexity and mobility. The movement of
people in pursuit of economic opportunity and a secure environment will create
more cosmopolitan population centres, while English is likely to consolidate its
position as the internationally dominant language for data and global services,

9

A mobile vision for Africa, 6 Jul 04, on line http://www.textually.org/textually/archives/2004/07/004433.htm.
UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division. International Migration Report 2002 (New York,
2002).

10

11

supplementary transnational languages, such as Mandarin, Spanish and Arabic,
may proliferate as engagement in globalized communication increases.
Sophisticated translation devices are likely to become widely available during the
period under review.

Changing Values. Secularism and materialism are likely to grow in significance
in an increasingly competitive, inter-connected world, reflecting trends that are
already well established in the more developed regions. Meanwhile, cultural
mixing, the pace of change and a rapid confluence of modern ideas and traditional
values are likely to increase the trend towards moral relativism and increasingly
pragmatic values. These developments will trigger responses from complex,
traditionally defined communities, as well as among significant minorities, which
will seek the sanctuary provided by more rigid belief systems, including religious
orthodoxy and doctrinaire political ideologies, such as popularism and Marxism.

12

•

Material Expectations. The Western, capitalist model will continue as the
economic paradigm and dominant cultural model for the aspirations of most of the
world’s population, with individuals seeking to match the lifestyle of their Western
counterparts. Expectations, fuelled by increasingly globalized communications,
media access and the promise of progress, will be further heightened by overall
economic growth, which will be extremely rapid in some regions, and by
continuing high standards of living in the more affluent ones. Visible
marginalization, differential levels of poverty and affluence and a sense of
grievance will increase in significance and become major political issues, based
around transnational moral justice agendas, including violent activism of varying
intensity and impact.

Figure 3 - Culture and Identity: Increasingly, identity will be anchored less to
fixed cultural categories, shifting instead according to context and interest.

13

Key Theme 3 - Governance and Order
States and Communities will be progressively challenged by the range and complexity of
the national and transnational risks that are beginning to dominate the 21st century - and
some will not cope. Owing to world-wide communications, the pervasive scrutiny of the
media and the inter-connected nature of international engagement, challenges to stability,
security and political order will increasingly have local, regional and global consequences.
Therefore, there will be a growing understanding of the limits to which solely locallyderived solutions are able to contain, and deal with, these challenges. Governments will
increasingly seek international and cooperative solutions to safeguard national interests.
Typically, those which share common interests will increasingly collaborate to contain the
symptoms of crises, while developing new institutional mechanisms to mitigate, control or
deal with their causes. However, some regimes may take whatever action they believe
necessary to prevail or survive, maintain control or perpetuate a way of life, especially in
the face of catastrophic or abrupt change. Also, the transition from a unipolar to multipolar
world will be uneven, with varying and volatile degrees of competition and collaboration.
Consequently, tensions will continue between the desire to establish collective solutions
and the limitations on the independent operation of national sovereignty required for them
to work.

Governance and Order - Potential Implications
•

Transnational pressures, competition and globalization will challenge the
robustness and resilience of governance and social mechanisms at every level.

•

New collaborative institutions, philosophies and mechanisms will be required to
cope with complex, inter-connected global and regional problems.

•

The exercise of national sovereignty will increasingly be expressed in support of
collective international action, but regimes and polities will continue to act to
protect their citizens and sustain their vital interests and stability.

•

Responsibility for international arrangements will lie with the national parties to
them; the emergence of a new supra-national sovereign power is unlikely.

•

Gaps and strains in the increasingly complex patchwork of arrangements for
international governance will be open to exploitation and abuse.

14

Drivers of Change
•

Globalized Economy. Globalization will remain a significant feature of long-term
economic change, with higher proportional growth in foreign direct investment
levels and international trade than in global output. This will increase
interdependency, while exposing local markets to externally-derived risk. This
tendency will, when it threatens social or regime stability, lead to unilateral tariff
and protectionist action and preferential bilateral arrangements based on mutual
self-interest or political advantage. Owing to varying degrees of regulation and
corruption in the globalized economy, trafficking, institutionalized criminality and
illicit trade will remain major features of the landscape.

•

US Transition. As the world’s pre-eminent economic and military power, the US is
the primary architect and main guarantor of an international rules-based system,
as well as a force of last resort. The status, culture and intentions of the US will
have a decisive effect on the evolution or survival of that system, as it adjusts in
reaction to an uneven, possibly unbalanced transition from a unipolar to a
progressively multipolar world. In doing so, the US will have to respond to, among
other things, the rising economic challenge of Asia, more competitive commodity
and energy access, and price and supply fluctuations, as well as dealing with
internal demographic, debt and social pressures. Anti-Americanism will continue
to be used as a convenient vehicle for the expression of grievance and resentment
arising from a wide range of issues, well beyond the point at which other rising
powers emerge.

•

Chinese Economic Development. China will be one of the most significant
factors in the future of the globalized economy as its position as the ‘workshop of
the world’ will have decisive influence on global economic demand and labour
markets. At the same time, its ever increasing foreign exchange reserves reflect
growing Western indebtedness. China’s future political direction will be crucial
therefore, not only for its own economic expansion, prosperity and stability, but for
that of the whole world. However, that political direction will be conducted against
a range of significant challenges; environmental, social, political, financial and
demographic. Failure to address these successfully may result in economic
failure, political instability, societal disorder and unrest, with both regional and
global repercussions. Chinese success in sustaining hitherto rapid economic
growth allied with social and environmental reform, may result in a challenge to
the U.S status as the global hegemony in the second half of the twenty first
century.

•

International Crime and Illicit Trade. International organized crime will grow in
volume, reach and profitability, while exploiting new ventures and markets in areas
of accelerating economic growth and opportunity, particularly in Asia and in

15

developing transnational markets. The annual global market for illicit drugs in
2005 was estimated at $322bn11 and was higher in retail price than the GDP of
88% of the countries in the world (163 out of 184 for which the World Bank held
data).12 Many states will continue to rely on narcotics and other forms of illicit
trading to maintain liquidity in their economies; aggressive exploitation of the
weaknesses exposed by globalization to promote illicit trade and encourage
corruption will present a major challenge to governance, to fiduciary arrangements
and international financial regulation. However, the trade in narcotics may decline
in response to a combination of over-supply, legalization and increasing
intolerance of the social impact and cost in the developed world.

11
12

•

Transnational Terrorism. Transnational and locally based terrorism, particularly
Islamist, will continue to derive its energy and justification from political
motivations, disadvantage and grievance, extending beyond poorer and more
volatile regions to include the marginalized in middle-income and more affluent
societies. The casualties and amount of damage inflicted will remain low,
compared to other forms of coercion and conflict, but the effect will be magnified
by reach (both physical and psychological), the scale of disruption to
infrastructures and the sensationalist value inherent in the ‘Theatre of Violence’
and the ‘Propaganda of the Deed’. Based on technological availability and historic
examples, chemical, biological and radiological elements will be viable and
credible possibilities for terrorist attack throughout the period, together with a lower
possibility of nuclear use.

•

Ungoverned Spaces. Some geographical areas, including failed states, provinces
or cities, and other population groupings, will not be subject to effective
governance and the rule of law. Some weak states, while continuing to claim
rights of sovereignty, will subsist through illicit trade and institutionalized criminal
activity, while others will be ineffective in curbing instability and containing the
consequences of transnational pressures. The risks associated with these
ungoverned and poorly governed spaces, including endemic criminal activity, the
basing of terrorists, irregular activity and conflict, are likely to increase and add to
the complexity, and, by extension, to the burdens of maintaining the integrity of the
international system.

•

Gender Equality. The significance of the divide between societies that are
progressing towards, or will have achieved, greater gender equality and those that
are not will continue to grow. This issue is likely to remain a defining cultural and
social theme during the 21st Century, influencing the conduct of international
political, economic and cultural relationships, but its progress will be uneven and

will be conditioned by cultural assumptions, demographic trends and economic
circumstances.
•

Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Weapon Proliferation. Access to
technology that enables the production and distribution of Chemical, Biological,
Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons is likely to increase. A critical
indicator of risk is contained in the examples of North Korea and Iran - both in
obtaining or seeking nuclear weapons and in exploiting their putative possession
for political and economic advantage. In future, much proliferation and threat will
be manifest in the ungoverned space between legality and realpolitik, together with
the distinct possibility of the acquisition of CBRN material by non-state and rogue
elements.

•

Technological Development. Innovation, research and development will originate
from more international and diffuse sources and will proliferate widely, making
regulation and control of novel technologies more challenging. The exploitation of
these may have catastrophic results, especially those associated with
nanotechnology, biotechnology and weapon systems. These may be unintended,
for example ‘runaway’ nanotechnology or biotechnology, or intended, such as the
development and use of directed energy or electromagnetic-pulse weapons.

Humanitarian Crises. Humanitarian crises, both natural and human in origin, will
affect the sentiments and sensibilities of globalized media audiences. Growing
pressure for intervention will be exerted by these audiences and a hyperactive,
obtrusive media, operating in both physical and virtual dimensions, especially
when audiences are linked to those affected by identity or interest, or where they
feel threatened by potentially wider or collateral impacts. Humanitarian fatigue
may grow in proportion to the number of crises that emerge and the ability of
governments and individuals to pay.

18

Key Theme 4 - Knowledge and Innovation
Technological development will continue to be predominantly commercially-led, driving
innovators and entrepreneurs to identify and produce as many applications of new
technologies as possible, although certain sensitive, niche, high cost/high impact
programmes will continue to be conducted by military or governmental agency. There
will also be extensive proliferation of access to technological and specialist information by
a wider range of audiences and users, and even maintaining secrecy about sensitive
technologies and systems will be extremely difficult. Innovation is likely to continue at an
unprecedented rate and there is likely to be a multiplicity of sources of innovation and
production. Making predictions about how novel and emerging technologies would be
exploited and applied will be difficult and imprecise. The rate of change, tempo and
unpredictability of innovation and development will challenge decision-makers who will
have to anticipate and respond to direct and indirect outcomes. Notwithstanding this,
trends indicate that the most rapid technological advances are likely in: ICT, energy,
biotechnology, cognitive science, sensors and networks and smart materials.
Nanotechnology is likely to be an important enabler for other developments, for example
in electronics, sensors and commodity manufacture.
Whilst technology will benefit many people, its application and integration will continue to
be unequal, reinforcing differences in understanding, advantage and opportunity between
the haves and have-nots.

Knowledge and Innovation - Potential Implications
•

The volume of information will challenge decision-support processes which are
based on ‘ordered’ knowledge management and rigid hierarchical organizations.

•

Technology-watch processes and intelligence agencies will be challenged by
the speed and diversity of innovations, which are likely to ‘pop-up’ with
increased frequency.

•

The rate of technological innovation will reduce the time available for its ‘cultural’
assimilation and control, increasing the likelihood of unintended outcomes.

•

It is possible that significant developments in quantum computing could lead to
the compromise of some digital cryptology, with resulting implications for
commercial and military use.

•

More effort will be required in technical intelligence to provide early warning of
unilateral or unexpected technical advantage.

19

Drivers of Change
•

Commercial Imperative. Global economic growth, resource pressure and
increasing socio-economic dependency ratios will fuel demands and create
opportunities for innovation and investment. Development is increasingly likely to
be directed towards commercial imperatives (business enterprises accounted for
68% of OECD Research and Development (R&D) expenditure in 2003).13 This
aspect will drive innovators to identify as many applications and markets for their
discoveries as possible, with interdisciplinary14 R&D likely to lead to the most
revolutionary outcomes. This aspect will make the implications and impacts of
breakthroughs difficult to predict.

•

New Innovation Centres. Increasing volumes of R&D will take place outside
traditional lead regions, with rapid proliferation and expansion of information and
research facilities into rising powers and developing regions. This is likely to lead
to a decline and even reversal in the technological dominance of the West with
China and India poised to become technology leaders15 in some areas. NonOECD countries increased their global share of R&D from 17% to 20% between
2001 and 2003 alone.16 China is now the third largest investor in R&D, over 60%
of which is conducted by business enterprises, and other countries such as Brazil,
South Korea, Taiwan and Israel are developing world class capabilities in
interdisciplinary areas. Intellectual property and commercial exclusivity are likely
to be under constant pressure from inadvertent disclosure, penetration and
espionage.

•

Labour Mobility. Highly capable and skilled individuals, including those employed
in R&D, but particularly those with commercially profitable or politically useful skills
in niche or scarce areas, will attract substantial rewards for their services and will
be increasingly mobile within the global knowledge-economy market. Over half of
the nearly 16m highly skilled expatriate workers in the 4 main destinations (US,
Europe, Canada and Australia) have originated from outside the OECD area.17
This largely one-way traffic will become more complex through the period and will
be driven by the growth of research and entrepreneurial opportunities in emerging
nations, easier migration and likely changes in traditional career models in
business and academia possibly resulting in ‘Brain circulation’ rather than a ‘Brain
drain’. As emerging powers continue to rise and opportunities and safeguards

13

OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2005 – Towards a knowledge-based economy.
The term ‘Interdisciplinary’ is used to mean a culture that reflects science and technology as a continuum and not a series
of discreet areas (physics, chemistry and biology) bounded, primarily, for the sake of education.
15
US National Intelligence Council – ‘Mapping the Global Future’ Dec 04.
16
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2005 – Towards a knowledge-based economy.
17
OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2005 – Towards a knowledge-based economy.
14

20

become more predictable, a reverse flow to countries of origin is likely to
accelerate.
•

Growth of Knowledge Sharing. Transnational knowledge sharing and innovation
will continue to expand, as indicated by increasing international collaboration in
industrial R&D (30% in the UK alone), the increased number of non-native
research students (in the US approximately 32% are from Asia)18 and the growth
of internationally owned patents (two thirds of the Russian Federation’s European
Patent Organization (EPO) patents are owned or co-owned by foreign residents).19

•

Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Growth and Pervasiveness.
Another powerful driver for the rate and range of innovation will be the continuing
increase in the pervasiveness and processing power of ICT. Wearable and
implanted wireless ICT is likely to be accessible to all that can afford it in the
second half of the period, and users will be linked through sensors and networks
that are enabled by computers that are significantly more capable than at present,
possibly by 100bn times if quantum computing reaches its potential.20

•

Demand for New Energy Sources. The potential limits of hydrocarbon resources
and the need to reduce carbon emissions will stimulate intensive research to find
alternative forms of energy. These will include, but not be limited to,
manufactured or renewable fuel sources such as biofuels and hydrogen, and
possibly nuclear fusion later in the period.

Exploitation of Extreme Environments. The search for alternative energy sources
will become more urgent at a time when technology will permit cheaper more
commercially viable space and intro-atmospheric applications. As a result, there is
likely to be an increase in space exploration and the exploration of other extreme
environments, such as polar regions, the deep ocean and deep underground, will
also increase. As the NASA programme through the 1960s and 70s
demonstrated, the exploration of more remote and hostile environments is likely to
stimulate and deliver extensive technological innovation.

•

Advances in Simulation. Advances in social science, behavioural science and
mathematical modelling will combine, leading to more informed decision making.
Advanced processing and computational power will permit a new level of pattern
recognition (Combinatronics) enabling the decoding of previously unrecognised or
undecipherable systems and allowing the modelling of a range of biological to
social, political and economic processes. As a result, simulation and
representatives will have a significant and widespread impact on the future and
will become an increasingly powerful tool to aid policy and decision makers.21 It
will also blur the line between illusion and reality.

Strategic Trends: Dimensions
Introduction
This section outlines the initial findings in each of the 5 Strategic Trends Dimensions,
which have been used to develop the Key Themes above. In each case, an outline of the
analytical Scope of the dimension is followed by discussion of the most probable
Outcomes, significant attendant global Risks and selected Defence and Security
Implications. Finally, the potential for variation from our assessment of the most likely
outcomes is outlined for each dimension (‘Potential Trend Variation’). The possibility for
major discontinuities, or Strategic Shocks, which will change global outcomes in more
radical ways, is considered in a final section.

Resource Dimension
Scope
For most of its history, humankind has striven to secure basic physical needs, avoid
disease and improve living standards and prospects. During the last century,
unprecedented numbers of people have been living in conditions of increasing affluence
and most of those who do not aspire to do so. The Resource Dimension considers the
extent to which the aspiration to achieve increasingly higher standards of living, or sustain
existing levels, will be met in the future. In doing so, it considers the physical and
environmental challenges that will condition these aspirations, the economic activities
through which they will be attempted, and the consequences that might arise.
The Resource Dimension analyses trends in:
•

Environmental risk, water and food.

•

Energy and raw materials.

•

Health and disease.

•

The built environment.

•

The global economic system.

•

Growth and development.

The Hot Topic in this dimension is the Competition for Energy Resources.

23

Outcomes
Over the next 30 years, the resource-related challenges to global stability will be diverse,
wide-ranging and significant. Climate change and a shifting environment; increasing
demand for natural resources, particularly food, water and fossil fuels; a growing and
rapidly globalizing economy; urbanization and the emergence of new health challenges
will all have major impacts and unpredictable effects. While the global economy is likely
to grow during the period, improving material conditions for many people, the combined,
uneven effect of these impacts will be to increase uncertainty for many, creating new
sources of insecurity, instability and tension.

Climate change will occur, although, as a result of many variables and limitations in
current computing power, assessments of its exact causes and course may remain
unclear for some time. The identification of precise cause-and-effect mechanisms will be
difficult to discern, together with the inter-relationship between various contributory
factors, complex mechanisms and associated phenomena. As a result, climate change as
a whole is likely to be variable and uneven in its impact, affecting different parts of the
globe in different ways. Although some definite patterns and realignments are likely to
emerge towards the middle of our period, climate change is likely to be difficult to predict
at the regional level and some changes may be sudden and uneven in their impact.

24

Major developments will include an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events, changing regional weather patterns, rising sea levels and desertification.
Food production, cultivation and animal husbandry patterns will be affected and some
regions will be unable to grow current food staples, such as rice and green vegetables;
fish stocks will diminish or migrate. Climate change will also increase pressure on water
supplies and their associated industries and populations; as a result, the number of water
stressed regions is likely to multiply. The release of a large quantity of methane (from
melting tundra or the deep ocean) into the atmosphere is unlikely, but would have serious
consequences for global warming should it occur.22
Predictions of future climate change vary significantly. The last assessment by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 suggested a likely rise of
global average temperature of 0.8 ºC to 1.7 ºC by 2050 and 1.4 ºC to 5.8 ºC by the end of
the century. Since then, an emerging body of research suggests that a reduction in the
capacity of the biosphere to absorb CO2 is likely to accelerate the CO2 rise from any
emissions scenario, with many uncertainties in the response of temperature to a given
CO2 concentration change. Several more recent studies included in the Stern Report23
suggest a doubling of pre-industrial levels of CO2 is likely to be reached between 2030
and 2060 and indicate a 20% probability that the associated temperature increase could
be greater than 5 ºC. Overall, the upper bound of plausible temperature changes may be
larger than that suggested in the IPCC report, but it should be noted that the global
average figures alone do not fully convey the magnitude and severity of specific impacts
in certain regions, particularly those arising from extreme weather events.
Climate models are virtually unanimous in predicting that the land will warm faster than
the ocean and that higher latitudes will experience greater relative warming than low
latitudes. Over the next 50 years annual average air temperatures over Europe are likely
to rise by anything up to 4 ºC depending on individual emission scenarios and climate
models. A number of climate models show increased daily variability in summer in
Northern Hemisphere land areas; when combined with the underlying increase in average
temperature, this will lead to extreme high temperatures and sustained heat waves
occurring with a frequency not experienced in Europe in modern times. While the North is
likely to experience a small increase in annual mean precipitation, mainly in winter, the
Mediterranean is likely to become more arid.
The world’s climate is currently projected to transform progressively and largely
incrementally over the century, but abrupt climate change has occurred in the past, for
example as a result of large volcanic eruptions. Abrupt climate change as a consequence
of anthropogenic, external or natural causes, is a possibility for the future. Regional
earthquakes, major volcanic eruptions in areas of tectonic instability, and Tsunamis
22
23

Methane is 8 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2.
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Sir Nicholas Stern, HM Treasury, 30 October 2006.

25

remain an ever-present possibility, their impact enhanced by increased intensity of human
occupation, especially in littoral regions.
Despite these natural challenges, the global economy is likely to continue growing at
about 2-3% per annum until at least 2020, with greatest growth among emerging
economies, for example Brazil, China and India, possibly together with Russia and Iran.
International trade and finance mechanisms and institutions will be forced to reform in
response to the rapidly changing global economy. Economic growth will lead to a
reduction in absolute poverty in most regions of the world, but this growth will be uneven
and improved access to information is likely to stimulate growing concern over
comparisons between living standards. Economic growth, combined with the continuing
rise in the global population, will intensify the demand for natural resources, minerals and
energy. Oil is likely to remain the principal source of motive power, particularly for
vehicles, and growing competition for this diminishing resource will lead to a significant
rise in energy prices. It is possible that this will cause a slow down in economic growth
from 2020, although this may be offset by new sources of energy: coal derivatives,
hydrogen fuel cells, bio-ethanol and for power generation, nuclear fusion. Although finite,
reserves of key minerals are unlikely to be exhausted in this period, despite sustained
increases in demand for metals such as copper. However, a small number of minerals
such as tantalum used in portable electronic devices, or cobalt found only in restricted
geographic locations, will continue to fill niche requirements in manufacturing, and will
therefore be of disproportionate significance. The need to guarantee supply for economic
prosperity may lead to upward pressure on prices and a scramble for resources in mineral
rich regions such as Africa.
Exploration is also likely in more extreme environments such as the deep ocean and
possibly, later on, in space. For example, the US Geological Survey estimates that
around 25% of the remaining global oil and gas reserves are likely to be located in the
Arctic. Although the harsh climate and environmental restrictions currently militate against
oil exploration and production in this region, Arctic warming is likely to be double the
global average and this will significantly improve prospects for future exploitation.
Petrochemical companies, aggressively developing new extraction technologies, are
likely to pursue oil production, undeterred by current environmental limitations,
constraints and concerns. The annual reduction in Arctic ice coverage is likely to
continue, leading to the prospect of a year-round Northern sea route across the Arctic
Ocean between continents and may culminate in a summer ice-free Arctic in the period
2040 to 2080. These routes will become strategically significant, offering shorter and
more direct trade links between North America, Europe and Asia.
Processes associated with global economic growth will also contribute to societal
challenges arising from changing patterns of health and disease, and rapid urbanization.
By 2035, most people (60%) will be living in urban rather than rural environments. Poor
housing, weak infrastructure and social deprivation will combine with low municipal

26

capacity to create a range of new instability risks in areas of rapid urbanization, especially
in those urban settlements that contain a high proportion of unplanned and shanty
development. Between 10-13m Chinese migrants24 are likely to move to urban areas
each year and planned urban construction is equivalent to ‘creating a New York City every
year for the next 10 years’. However, rapid development has resulted in significant
pollution and contamination with an estimated 300-600m people using contaminated
water.25 High volume, mass transport-linked, increasingly urbanized populations will
heighten the transmission risks of infectious disease to 2035. HIV/AIDS will continue to
be a major social and economic challenge for Africa and, increasingly, Asia. Despite
advances in healthcare, people of many developing countries will also be challenged by
the illnesses associated with ageing and affluence, such as diabetes, obesity, cancer and
cardiovascular disease, even as their dietary and smoking habits change and levels of
physical activity reduce. Ageing populations, an increase in medical demand and patient
expectations are likely to lead to an unsustainable drain on some state health resources
and to impact on economic prosperity. Some protection will also be required to offset the
combined harmful effects of global warming, declining air quality, urban heat islands and
overcrowding.

Risks

24
25

•

Climate Change. The future effects of climate change will stem from a more
unstable process, involving sudden, and possibly in some cases catastrophic
changes. It is possible that the effects will be felt more rapidly and widely than
anticipated, leading, for example, to an unexpected increase in extreme weather
events, challenging the collective and individual capacity to respond.

•

Energy Market Instability. Overheating of energy markets may lead more
countries to follow the example of China in establishing bilateral arrangements that
seek to dominate or control the global market in their favour, possibly fuelling
tension among those who are excluded or who cannot or will not compete in a
market environment. This may lead to political and even military interventions in
order to protect access and safeguard supply. Instability in a supplier region will
also cause market fragility, including global price spikes, which in the most severe
cases may trigger wider political instability, especially in economically vulnerable
regions. Any major constraints on, or threats to, the free market in energy could
arrest or limit the globalization dynamic.

•

Food Price Spikes. Increasing demand and climate change are likely to place
pressure on the supply of key staples, for example, a drastic depletion of fish
stocks or a significantly reduced capacity to grow rice in SE Asia or wheat on the

China International Business Oct 2005 and Guangming Daily reported on July 19 2006.
Beijing AFP 22 Dec 2005 and The Economist ‘A Great Wall of Waste’ 19 August 2004.

27

US plains. A succession of poor harvests may cause a major price spike,
resulting in significant economic and political turbulence, as well as humanitarian
crises of significant proportions and frequency. Genetic and scientific modification
of food is likely to be necessary, both for human and animal consumption and for
bio-fuel production.

26

•

Water Scarcity. Water stress will increase, with the risk that disputes over water
will contribute significantly to tensions in already volatile regions, possibly
triggering military action and population movements. Experience indicates that
countries generally seek equitable solutions to water disputes, but that severe
shortages may provoke more virulent responses. Areas most at risk are in North
Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia, including China whose growing problems
of water scarcity and contamination may lead it to attempt to reroute the waters of
rivers flowing into neighbouring India, such as the Brahmaputra. Some severely
affected states may rationalize water use by importing food rather than pursuing
inefficient irrigation projects, while maximizing earnings from low-water input goods
and services.

•

US Economic Crisis. The US position as the world’s most indebted nation makes
it vulnerable to stock market collapse, currency runs and economic crisis, as well
as global currency manipulation. The most likely cause of crisis would be energy
market instability or volatility leading to a loss of market confidence. Also, failure
to continue to support or service its debt in these circumstances would put US
creditors and commodity suppliers at risk, possibly causing a global economic
downturn.

•

Failure of Global Financial System. Economic growth may be affected by
financial shocks such as economic recession, natural or human-induced disasters
or failure to deal with social and environmental challenges. There will be further
pressure from corruption, organized crime and increasing illicit activity which will
challenge international regulation, while stressing and undermining trust and
fiduciary regimes. A reduction in financial confidence may result in states
reverting to regional markets and a return to outright state or regional
protectionism.

•

Disease. Infectious diseases in general will continue to have significant
economic and social impact across many regions of the world. Beyond SubSaharan Africa, emerging economies such as India, China and Russia are likely
to be challenged significantly by HIV/AIDS, with an estimated 10-20m sufferers in
China by 2010.26 These and other regions will be affected by antibiotic resistant
strains of other major diseases, like tuberculosis and hepatitis, whose incidence

Averting a Full-blown HIV/AIDS Epidemic in China – A Report of the CSIS HIV/AIDS Delegation to China 2003.

28

will be multiplied by global interconnectivity and travel. A major pandemic may be
the instrument that causes a reverse in the process of globalization as national
responses to contain infection will involve significant restrictions on personal
mobility and interaction over a lengthy period. Some states may even be
destabilized by the effort and resources required to address the situation.
•

Rogue or Failed Cities. Owing to burgeoning populations and uncontrolled
development, city authorities and regulatory mechanisms may lose the ability to
maintain order, while remaining a functioning entity in the international system.
This loss of control may be represented by a discrepancy between administrative
and resource capacity on the one hand and human requirements on the other.
Large cities in developing regions are more vulnerable to failure, with wider
impacts that will be equivalent to state-failure.

•

Cities’ Abandonment of the Countryside. Cities, as engines of economic growth,
opportunity and social inclusion in developing regions, may increasingly abandon
their impoverished hinterlands, giving them up to poverty, backwardness and
lawlessness, or, in more secure areas, mass tourism or industrialized agriculture.

•

Mass Population Displacement. A combination of resource pressure, climate
change and the pursuit of economic advantage may stimulate rapid large scale
shifts in population. In particular, Sub-Saharan populations will be drawn towards
the Mediterranean, Europe and the Middle East, while in Southern Asia coastal
inundation, environmental pressure on land and acute economic competition will
affect large populations in Bangladesh and on the East coast of India. Similar
effects may be felt in the major East Asian archipelagos, while low-lying islands
may become uninhabitable.

•

Generation Conflict in Developed Countries. The declining size of working
populations and rising social, health and pension costs in developed countries,
financed through taxation, will increase the financial burden on the younger
elements of society. Further exacerbation by unaffordable house prices, student
debt and unemployment, contrasted with the wealth locked up in older
generations, may lead to protests on a wide scale, resulting in instability and social
unrest.

Defence and Security Implications
•

Increased Humanitarian Commitments. The impacts of climate change,
particularly the growing risk of natural disasters and the damaging effects on
development for already fragile states, may increase the pressure for military
forces to participate in growing numbers of humanitarian assistance, disaster relief
and evacuation operations.

29

•

Securing Natural Resources. Key natural resources, especially oil, gas and
minerals of strategic value, will continue to be sourced from unstable areas and
unreliable regions. Maintaining access and containing instability risks in these
areas is therefore likely to increase in importance, alongside wider developmental
and stabilization roles. Where oil and gas sources are located in areas of doubtful
security, military intervention may be used to protect the integrity of sites and to
secure investments.

•

Emerging Powers. China and India’s growing global economic status will
translate into a significant increase in their international political influence,
diplomatic power and possibly foreign overseas commitments, especially in their
regional near-abroad. This trend may lead to increasing strategic competition
between them where their emerging markets, sources of raw materials, interests
and national priorities coincide and conflict. It may also lead to competitive
tendering for allies and partners and possibly an Asian arms race.

•

Spending Priorities. Increased mobility of capital in a globalized economy may
reduce the capacity for state-based systems to levy tax and maintain fiscal
stability. Governments will increasingly attempt to shed public responsibilities
where they can and will be presented with increasingly challenging spending
choices, including the priority that is afforded to defence and security.

•

US Economic Vulnerability. The perception of the US as an ultimate guarantor of
international security and the health of the international economic engine, able to
intervene politically and militarily in unstable areas and in the settlement of
intractable problems, is central to the stability of the present international system.
A US economic downturn, resulting in its reduced international posture, may lead
to increased global tension, inter-state rivalry and a greater military provision, and
possibly intervention, by other nations.

•

Developmental Failure. The failure of some regions and countries to achieve selfsustaining development progress will continue to pose instability risks, with likely
impacts on their neighbours and the operation of the wider international system.
The scale and intensification of these risks are likely to elicit military responses
from those countries or blocs whose interests are threatened.

•

HIV/ AIDS. HIV/AIDS will reduce the effectiveness and morale of armed forces of
those nations worse affected and will continue to affect the ability of some nations
to field significant military capabilities.

•

Mega-City Failure. A large city in a developing region (or a number of large cities
in more than one region) may fail before 2035. The effects will be equivalent in
character, if not in scale, to state failure, which city failure may, in turn, precipitate.

30

Based on recent experience, the military stabilization of a major city would demand
a comprehensive Inter-Agency approach, specialist skills, and an enduring
operational commitment.
â&#x20AC;˘

Endemic Urban-Based, Irregular Conflict. It is likely that unregulated urbanization
will result in future adversaries who have highly-developed urban survival and
combat skills. They may consequently choose to pursue their objectives and
conduct operations in sprawling towns and cities which will already have
experienced endemic lawlessness and high levels of violence.

â&#x20AC;˘

Vehicle Transformation. At some stage, choices will need to be made in
developed societies about the economic viability of vehicles and systems that are
reliant on oil at a time when other sources of energy, such as liquefied coal or
generated electricity, may be more cost effective and environmentally acceptable.
This consideration would have significant implications across Defence, although
some platforms and systems may have to be specifically designated as prioritized
oil users until technology allows a practical alternative.

Potential Trend Variation
The most probable trends suggest that resource competition and challenges over the
next 30 years will be substantial, complex and varying in their impact. However,
alternative views offer a less pessimistic perspective. For example, as indicated above,
there is considerable uncertainty about the precise pattern and impacts of climate change
and, while unlikely, these could be less severe than predicted. Indeed, some regions
may benefit (for example, parts of Russia, Canada and Brazil may be able to increase
cereal crop yields and acreage under cultivation). Similarly, whilst the pressure on natural
resources and energy supplies is likely to become more severe, the development of new
technologies or discovery of large new reserves of natural resources may offer a more
optimistic outcome.
Most economic assessments out to 2020 predict continued growth with parallel
development in other areas of human activity. However, assessments beyond this point
are less certain and are subject to a wide variety of variables, particularly when related to
ratios of population and resources. The globalization of markets may be more pervasive
in regions which we predict are likely to be subject to lower levels of economic
penetration. A less even process of globalization may lead to lower-density settlement
patterns, with people straddling rural and urban-based livelihoods, resulting in extensive
browning of the countryside. The resource-rich areas of non-coastal Africa could possibly
experience economic development at higher than predicted rates, in step with increased
governance and accountability. Similarly, it is possible that advances in medicine could
result in affordable treatments for HIV/AIDS, which may also unlock the economic
potential in the most affected regions. However, the disruptive impacts of globalization

31

may result in the increased adoption of protectionist measures, either at the national or
regional level, slowing international institutional reform.

Hot Topic â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Competition for Energy
The Golden Age of cheap energy has passed. Competition for energy supplies will
dominate the economic landscape during the next 30 years and world energy demand
growth is likely to rise annually by between 1.5 and 3.1%. Sustained high demand from
fast-developing economies such as China and India will increase significantly, while
established consumers are likely to seek to maintain levels of consumption consistent with
sustaining their own growth. This trend is likely to result in highly competitive pricing and
the continued enrichment and economic progress of producer countries, including Russia
and Iran. This in turn will lead to enhanced possibilities for international influence and
leverage by producers and they are likely to allow favoured or politically useful countries to
make preferential deals. In response, governments are increasingly likely to follow Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s
example and seek ways to bypass the uncertainties and volatilities of the global energy
market, by establishing bilateral arrangements with individual suppliers, particularly in
Africa, South America and other developing countries with unstable regimes. This
tendency is likely to be strongest among fast-developing economies whose economic
growth will depend on increasing manufacturing output and social amelioration, but which
cannot compete on price within a global market. The prospect, apparent or real, of the
peak production of oil during the timeframe out to 2035 and progressive diminution of
output thereafter will intensify competition for remaining resources.
Disputes may arise for a number of reasons. Requirements to access sources of supply in
unstable regions or countries could lead to intervention to protect assets and investment,
while attempts to exploit new sources in the deep oceans and the polar regions could lead
to confrontation over sovereignty and the terms of existing international agreements.
Fragmentation or unbalanced operation of energy markets may fuel increased instability in
producer regions; countries and communities are likely to respond by energy-saving
measures, exploiting additional or alternative sources of energy and reducing their
dependence on oil. This will occur through greater investment in sources such as nuclear
and renewable energy, and the development of new technologies, particularly those related
to fusion, hydrogen fuel cells and bio-fuels (although this will have an environmental impact
and reduce the amount of land available for food production).
As oil supplies diminish and economic growth continues, recourse may be made to plentiful
reserves of coal which could be: burned in power stations to generate electricity,
transformed to gaseous fuels or liquefied to feed internal combustion engines. China will
be able to exploit strategically significant coal reserves in this way. This trend will incur
additional production and environmental burdens, although current and emerging
technologies will assist in dealing with pollutants at a cost.

Social Dimension
Scope
Despite a century of major war and confrontation, economic progress, technological
development and material improvement, the last 100 years have been paralleled by
unprecedented growth in the world population. The Social Dimension examines likely
population trends and assesses the social implications over the next 30 years. It also
examines the changing nature of social relationships and the place of the individual within
society and considers how individuals might interact with and understand the future, and it
considers how they might construct personal identity strategies, both legal and illegal, to
mitigate risks and exploit opportunities during the next 30 years.
The Social Dimension analyses trends in:
•

Demography and population.

•

Class, family and gender.

•

Culture, identity, morality and belief.

•

The individual and society - citizenship and the social contract.

•

Illegal actors – criminals and terrorists.

The Hot Topic in this dimension is The Media and Society.

Outcomes
Developments in the Social Dimension will be dominated by 2 processes: rapid
demographic change and the impact of globalization on culture, identity and belief. The
world’s population is likely to increase by over 20%27 by 2035, most of which will occur in
developing regions. Here, the character of society will be transformed by the movement
of youthful populations (87% of people under the age of 25 live in the developing world)28
from the country to rapidly-growing urban areas. By contrast, the populations in most
affluent societies will decline, encouraging labour and humanitarian migration from less
wealthy regions. Environmental pressures, economic stagnation and political instability
are also likely to trigger population movement from afflicted regions.

27

World population 1950-2050 by projection variants: UN Population Division of the Department of Economics and Social
Affairs, 2005.
28
Ibid.

34

Increased demand for labour mobility is likely to be paralleled by trends towards an
expansion in numbers of women in the workplace, where they are increasingly likely to
occupy leadership positions in business and politics. Similarly, as the family changes in
character and utility, shaped both by long-term population movement and labour mobility,
greater migration will encourage cross-cultural partnerships. Decreasing fertility and
informal partnerships are likely to result in smaller families; however, pressure on housing
may lead to more extended family arrangements within one household, possibly with
inter-generational dependencies. There will be a trend towards certainty and stability,
especially in pre-modern and faith-based societies, where families and individuals will
seek to construct a more secure and predictable social environment in an increasingly
dynamic economic environment. A similar reaction may also be expected in middle
elements of affluent societies when individuals see it in their interest to do so.
All of these changes will be reflected in culture, identity and belief. For many people,
affiliation will extend beyond physically proximate communities, reflecting the ability to
sustain relationships and identities over distance through globalized communications and
travel. However, while resulting cultural complexity is likely to reinforce a trend towards
secularism, a significant minority will turn to religious orthodoxy as a source of comfort
and certainty in a changing world. The combination of growing secularism in Europe and
the spread of evangelical Christianity in Africa, Asia and South America will influence
traditionally Western-based Christian institutions, giving them an increasingly
non-European emphasis.
Most of the urban poor will be employed in the informal sector and will be highly
vulnerable to externally-derived economic shocks and illicit exploitation. Youthful,
economically-exposed populations in the developing world are likely to be highly volatile,
resulting in periodic social upheaval, widespread criminality and shifting allegiances. In
many developing societies, the middle classes will grow to numerically and electorally
significant levels for the first time. While this will reflect economic growth, most new
middle class members will be vulnerable to downward mobility and risk; they are likely to
compare their own living standards, possibly unfavourably, with global levels of wealth.
Resulting fears and concerns are likely to impact on national politics and international
relationships.
Those who offer radical, but superficially simple solutions to the challenges arising from a
globalized economy are likely to find a ready audience among those who do not enjoy its
advantages. For some, the temptation to 'strike back' at perceived sources of
disadvantage, while offering a return to earlier certainties will have particular appeal, and
may spawn rejectionist, anarchist and nihilist groups and individuals. International
terrorism and irregular activity are therefore likely to endure and proliferate, fuelled as
much by global market forces as by political and cultural challenges associated with them.
Globalization will also provide diverse opportunities for criminal organizations, which will

Population Growth and Demographics. Global population is likely to rise by 2bn
to 8.5 bn in 2035,29 most of which will take place in the developing world.
Between now and 2035, less developed regions will account for 98% of world
population growth, with a population increase of 38%. Sub-Saharan Africa will
grow by 81% and Middle Eastern countries by 132%. In contrast, Europe will lose
40m people as fertility declines.30 Countries and regions where young adults
comprise more than 40%31 of the population are statistically more than twice as
likely to experience societal conflict compared with those with smaller numbers of
young people. In contrast, Europe, Japan and eventually China will face a decline
in population growth combined with a trend towards population ageing
unprecedented in world history. Unemployment, gender imbalance and poor
prospects will intensify existing tensions and pressures.

•

Mass Population Displacement. Conflict and crises will continue to trigger the
displacement of large numbers of people, mainly into proximate regions, which
may themselves be at risk of instability. Recent conflicts have also demonstrated
the potential for sudden movements of people over longer distances, with the
potential for related shocks and knock-on effects. This instability is likely to fuel
extremist politics in some societies, possibly based on a beleaguered middle
class, which may result in resurgent nationalism and authoritarianism.

•

Super-Diversity. Countries which encourage immigration as a means to address
labour and skill shortages, involving a mixture of temporary visitors and long-term
settlers, will increasingly experience ‘super-diversity’,32 which may present
challenges and threats to social cohesion and economic stability in host countries.
In addition, the risk of a continuing 'brain drain' is likely to remain a challenge for
some developing countries throughout this period, although evidence suggests
that talented individuals will usually return to politically stable and economically
successful countries of origin. Failure to manage this migration will impose
significant resource burdens in destination and transit countries.

•

Declining Civic Values. Many people in affluent societies will increasingly regard
their relationship with the state in consumerist rather than civic terms, while

29

World population 1950-2050 by projection variants: UN Population Division of the Department of Economics and Social
Affairs, 2005.
30
ibid.
31
Professor Jack Goldstone, George Mason University, Mackinder Forum 14 Mar 06.
32
Professor Steven Vertovec, University of Oxford: http://lists.ysu.edu/pipermail/urbanth-1/2006-February/000821.html.

36

governmental arrangements in many developing societies are likely to fail to keep
pace with economic and social change. These changes will alter the social
contract between the citizen and society, which is likely to result in citizens
becoming more self-reliant and therefore expecting a reduced obligation to the
state in return.
•

Political Extremism. The middle class will be more vulnerable to economic and
social volatility. This may trigger a rise in political engagement and may
encourage a resort to either communitarian solutions or extremist politics. While
the immediate risk may exist at the national level, exposure to globalized
economic forces may cause a reaction to globalization and ultimately fuel tension
and difficulties at international levels.

•

Feminized and Male-Dominated Societies. The issue of gender balance and
weight of influence will continue to dominate the world’s social and political
agenda. Gender balance will be determined by culture, belief and social
structures, with varying degrees of equality and advantage. Divergence between
feminized societies, where women achieve greater representation, and maledominated societies is increasingly likely. This disparity is likely to be reflected in
all aspects of a culture or society and may stimulate growing friction between the
two, possibly leading to outright hostility, with the former regarding the latter as
uncivilized and the latter regarding the former as decadent or irreligious.

•

Declining News Quality. The rise of internet-enabled, citizen-journalists and
formal, real-time and informal news distribution through themed websites and the
blogosphere will weaken the immediacy and influence of mainstream news
providers. Breaking events will increasingly be transmitted to individuals directly,
often without filters, legal sanctions and safeguards. Consequently, competition in
a real-time news environment is likely to reduce the integrity of the editorial
function, with pressure to release stories, narratives and opinions at the expense
of facts.

•

Growth in Crime. Criminals and illicit groups will increasingly take advantage of
legitimate company structures to conduct or hide their criminal activity, leading to
higher levels of global corruption and illicit trade, often involving the use of
cyberspace. They will also continue to exploit ungoverned and uncontrolled
spaces, collaborating through business-based relationships with
paramilitary/terrorist and insurgent groups as well as weak and corrupt
governments. They will exploit growing consumer markets in rapidly growing
economies and opportunities wherever they present themselves. Criminals are
likely to be more aggressive in defence of their assets and markets and in
promoting their interests.

37

Defence and Security Implications
•

Recruitment. The armed forces in societies that have a declining proportion of
young people, through demography, policy or disease, may find it progressively
difficult to attract suitable or sufficient recruits. This trend is likely to be
exacerbated by extended full-time education and a consequently greater age at
which people will enter an increasingly competitive market for labour. This may
lead to an expansion of technical applications, possibly coupled to increasing
recourse to the use of foreign or commercial manpower and security solutions,
especially for deployed or enduring tasks. Conversely, societies with a larger
proportion of youth in their populations are likely to experience difficulties in
meeting immediate or long-term aspirations and in containing tensions, especially
in those countries which have few opportunities for growth, employment and
settled occupations. In areas of weak governance, loose control and economic
stagnation, these tensions could lead to endemic internalized violence or
externally focused aggression, migration or expansion.

•

Evolving Family Systems. Family arrangements will become both economically
and socially more diverse and fluid, shaped by culture, interest and circumstances
and characterized by a combination of biological and functional relationships.
However, traditional arrangements are likely to persist and formal marriage is
likely to remain popular, but their character and resilience will be determined by
economic conditions and prevailing cultural assumptions. In response to
globalization and the pressures of a more uncertain world, networks based on
family, clan or tribe structures and extended kinship groups, in common with a
more communitarian approach, are likely to proliferate, especially in areas of
declining or low prosperity and opportunity.

•

Work-Life Balance. In developed, prosperous societies a premium will be placed
on achieving balanced work-life ratios, more engaged parenting by both partners
and increasingly flexible, portfolio-based approaches to work and personal
arrangements, which will challenge the demands of a career in the armed forces.
As extra-uterine and other controlled options for childbirth become clinically
feasible and socially acceptable, further shifts in male/female relationships may
reasonably be expected.

•

Responding to Social Instability. Social transformation arising from globalization,
demographic imbalances and economic shifts will result in wide-ranging, often
intense, instability risks, whose impacts will be transmitted beyond their immediate
point of origin. These features will demand sensitive warning, strong governance
and responsive containment arrangements. In an unstable economic environment
or in the event of social crisis, an increase in militancy and activism, possibly

38

based on a declining middle-class, is likely to fuel extremist politics in some
societies, possibly characterized by resurgent nationalism and authoritarianism.
•

Achieving Security Consensus. Those societies most affected by the decline of
civic values and which have substantial unassimilated diasporae will be the most
exposed to super-diversity. They are likely to find it increasingly difficult to
achieve political consensus on responses to future security and regional
challenges. In addition, more attention will be needed in relation to the
requirements of dealing with internal dissent and disorder, as well as the possibility
of violent or disruptive action (possibly in the form of terrorism or irregular activity)
in support of external causes or hostile states.

•

Women in the Armed Forces. Differentiation of gender-roles in employment will
diminish in many developed and, increasingly, in developing societies, except
when economic circumstances or traditional customs reinforce familiar patterns.
However, continuing divisions between feminized and male-dominated societies
may reinforce other sources of mutual tension. The contrast between the two will
be powerfully symbolized by the increased profile and influence of women in the
armed forces of the former, including in command and combat roles. This is likely
to complicate relationships with both allies and opponents. Sensitivities about the
employment of women in direct combat roles are likely to persist, although their
role in countering irregular activity, combat support and other arms will increase
and normalize during the period.

•

Value Shift. Societies that experience significant economic decline or social
attrition are likely to experience a resurgence of traditionalist and communitarian
values. Where a reverse is sudden and severe, reactions are likely to be
dramatic, possibly leading to a marked decrease in Defence spending and in
retrenchment, with secondary effects on membership of alliances and on
established security arrangements and commitments.

•

Armed Forces in Society. A decline in civic values, the spread of super-diversity
and progressively ageing populations, as well as the absence of a defined,
tangible military threat, are likely to undermine the social and perceived
significance of the armed forces in developed societies.

39

The Media and the Military – Iraq March 2003 - Source: Defence Images
•

Use of the Media. The expansion of the media in all its forms (traditional televisual, the internet, and citizen journalists), will impact across every aspect of life.
It will in turn be influenced and affected by novel personal devices and techniques
that will further complicate the medium within which perceptions, expectations and
opinions are shaped. States and non-state actors, as well as opportunists and
other individuals, will seek to dominate the agenda of the 24 hour news media for
commercial, political and personal reasons. In conflict and crisis, regimes and
power structures will seek to influence perceptions and limit the freedom of action
of other political and military leaders, especially those of an opponent. In some
hostile or unstable conflict environments, it will not be possible to exploit traditional
media techniques and unfiltered news may play an increasingly influential role. In
other circumstances, certain regimes are likely to attempt, with varying degrees of
success, to restrain or limit the effect of media coverage and its transmission to
audiences, either through technical or coercive means. This will be easier to
achieve in more autocratic or totalitarian regimes, or where media outlets are
directly exposed to the risk of unrestrained violence.

Potential Trend Variation
The world’s population may grow more rapidly than expected, even against a background
of declining fertility levels. The UN’s high variant population estimate is a global

40

population of 9.2bn by 2035,33 with a fall in fertility rates of 0.25%. This would reinforce
many of the risks associated with the most likely projected demographic trends. Regional
instability would probably spread with an accelerating incidence of disorder, instability
and ultimately conflict. Humanitarian disaster and inter-communal risks would increase
among expanding, already vulnerable, populations and there would probably be even
greater migration flows from affected regions.
Alternatively, globalization processes may be less anarchic than anticipated, stimulating
strong governance mechanisms and cultural convergence, rather than creating increased
cultural complexity and competition. Under these circumstances, the opportunities offered
by the rapid growth of highly integrated markets may reduce the significance of cultural
identity as a determinant of personal loyalty, security and interest. Cultural convergence
may also reinforce trends towards pragmatism, compromise and relativism, reducing the
appeal of extreme ideologies and movements. Increasingly shared assumptions and
values may also enable the international community to respond more effectively to
challenges that affect the planet as a whole and that threaten stability.

Hot Topic – The Media in Society
The influence, power and stature of media organizations, both physical and web-based,
will continue to expand, coinciding with a reduction in the ability and authority of all but
the most authoritarian governments to dominate and influence the terms of debate.
Confrontational and intrusive journalism, ‘the Industrialization of Gossip’,34 and populist
entertainment including sport, driven by commercial impulse, competition and accelerating
technological development, will dominate the media environment. There will be a wide
diversity of receiving mechanisms for individuals, with increasing numbers of portable,
personalized and networked applications and a multiplicity of media sources. The basis of
‘truth’ will be heavily subjective and the media will be vulnerable to hijacking and
distortion by pressure groups and fashionable ideas. This will be defined by what is
believed rather than by objective analysis and scrutiny.
The expansion of commercial and unofficial, web-based applications will challenge the
primacy of traditional corporate tele-visual and print based formats. Similarly, the
emergence of 'citizen-journalists' operating independently of traditional Main Stream
Media (MSM) outlets will participate actively across the whole future media environment,
fuelled by widespread access to the successor technologies to digital audio-visual
recording devices, such as digital video cameras and camera-phones. 'Advocacyjournalists', ranging from pressure groups to terrorists, will stage the news events that
33

World population 1950-2050 by projection variants: UN Population Division of the Department of Economics and Social
Affairs, 2005.
34
Andrew Marr, ’My Trade: A Short History of British Journalism’, Macmillan, 2004.

41

they cover and compete in political processes. MSM will feed off these sources, but also
use these techniques themselves, encouraging a trend away from traditional editorial
functions, responsibility and quality control. Given these trends, governments in 'closed'
societies will find it increasingly difficult to control the spread of news and information,
especially where there is a shift to internationalized or shared sources.
The power and ubiquity of the media will increase the tendency towards populist and
personality-based politics in democratic electorates, with confidence in politicians centred
on administrative and executive competence rather than issues. Governments, political
parties and administrative organs will be subject to pervasive scrutiny and challenge by
individuals and groups, who will form a constantly shifting pattern of pressure and lobby
groups at the expense of monolithic political parties in democratic societies. This will be
fed by, and will encourage, informal groupings, communitarian solutions to local problems
and the spread of libertarian and individualistic values.
Significantly, a continuing divide will exist between the preoccupations and interests of
the inhabitants of the developed and developing world and those poorest societies and
communities, who will be the losers in an era of globalization. It is therefore likely that
major events (political crises, disasters and conflicts) in the least connected regions could
be effectively disregarded by local elites and even the wider world community. Societies
in the developed and developing worlds may become increasingly inured to stories of
conflict, famine and death in these areas and, to an extent, desensitized.

42

Political Dimension
Scope
Three main features dominated international political affairs towards the end of the
twentieth century: the nation-state was the primary form of sovereign actor; the existence
of international organizations and agreements, through which relations between states
were increasingly regulated; and the pre-eminence of the US as the sole superpower and
guarantor of a post-1945 rules-based system. The Political Dimension considers the
extent to which these features will endure over the next 30 years, taking into account
possible changes in the nature and sources of power, and specific developments in
various regions of the world.
The Political Dimension analyses trends in:
•

The State and the international system.

•

Non-government actors and soft power.

•

The US and the Americas.

•

Europe.

•

Russia and its ‘Near Abroad’.

•

China and East Asia.

•

Japan and the Pacific.

•

India, Central and South Asia.

•

The Gulf, the Middle East and North Africa.

•

Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Hot Topic in this dimension is Soft Power.

Outcomes
The period until 2035 will be characterized by the increasing interdependence of nation
states through a globalized economy, a commonly accepted rules-based system
(honoured both in the observance and the breach) and the persistence of multilateral
institutions and ad hoc groupings. Interdependencies will be characterized and reinforced
by increasing global interconnectedness in the form of international investment and free

43

markets in goods, labour and services, although those countries that perceive themselves
to be losing out in an era of globalization are likely to resist its advance through barriers
and tariffs. Other features will be continued US economic, cultural and military leadership
for at least the first decade or so, tempered by the emergence of more diffuse ‘soft’
cultural and political power and the transition to a more multilateral world; the rise of new
powers, especially China and India, but also and less obviously, Brazil, Iran and a
resource-rich Russia. Despite the survival of traditional alliances and associations, there
will be a complex network of bilateral and multiple linkages, reflecting the diverse,
complicated interests, risks and concerns of elites, countries and communities. The last 2
trends will be reflected in a tendency for intercommunal conflict to take on a transnational
dimension, currently represented by the activities of diaspora communities and particularly
by extreme Islamist militants and terrorists. Although large-scale interstate warfare is
unlikely, competition for finite resources and intolerance at market forces may lead to
tension and greater potential for confrontation and conflict between 2020 and 2035. While
globalization has been seen as essentially a transmission of Western, and particularly, US
values, the rise of Asian powers, the increasing purchasing power of their populations and
their growing influence in international institutions is likely to stimulate the dissemination
of more Asian cultural values and offer alternatives to the Western model of global culture.
The US is likely to sustain its international leadership until at least 2020, after which a
more multipolar world will challenge its hegemonic status, with China, Russia, India,
Brazil and Indonesia and a host of alternative, possibly rival polities weakening its grip on
certain regions and the international system. US strategic power will also be
progressively diluted by its integration within an increasingly globalized economy and the
need to address large budgetary imbalances and deficits.
Brazil’s emergence as a major economic power based on continued democratic
institutions, a diverse economy and vast potential as a food and bio-fuel exporter, will
alter the balance of power in the Americas, along with a progressive reduction of
dependence on the US by South American countries. Brazil’s economic development is
likely to be a catalyst for similar progress by other South American states, particularly
Argentina and Chile, although such development throughout the region may be
complicated by a resurgent populism which will have substantial appeal to the 25% of the
population of Latin America which live on less than $2 a day .35
The EU will grow to absorb new members and will associate its future security with
stability on the North African littoral and the Middle East; however, further constitutional
and monetary integration may be hampered by competing national expectations and
under-performing economic output. In particular, the combination of ageing populations
and generous social programmes may be incompatible with continued economic growth

and EU members may struggle to maintain living standards. The tension between
globalization and existing state welfare and economic provision is likely to result in
uneven impacts across the EU and will include unemployment, pressures on
infrastructures and a popular move towards more traditional, conservative and
communitarian ways of life. The gap between the pan-European, liberal elites and public
opinion is likely to widen. Increasing the birth rate and encouraging more immigration
will require sensitive social policies, to ensure control of the balance between population
and resources and stable integration. The democratic reforms of the 1990s may come
under pressure in the states of the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, if
democratic institutions fail to deliver prosperity and stability. In these circumstances the
temptation to revert to more traditionally authoritarian regimes is likely to be strong, but
will be counter-balanced by the continued desire and need to remain part of the EU and
NATO.
Russia’s significance and influence in Europe is likely to increase, reflecting its extensive
natural resources, particularly in oil and gas, but its ability to exert direct leverage or
leadership will be limited by its internal tensions, not least its acute demographic crisis,
threats to stability from radical Islam and severe regional instability on its southern
periphery. The failure of Russia to diversify its economy from a single sector based on
energy, as a ‘Saudi Arabia of the North’, may result in stunted economic development and
huge inequalities resulting in political stasis and the potential for instability and disorder.
This tendency will be perpetuated by ongoing difficulties in generating a self-sustaining
middle class, significant levels of civic responsibility and a socio-economic model based
on the rule of law. A failure to overcome these problems is likely, given historic
experience, to result in an increasingly authoritarian, overtly nationalistic posture,
characterized by a highly regulated, but irregular and criminalized economic sector and
poor democratic credentials. Assertive Russian nationalism will be opposed by the reemergence of a pan-Islamic identity, especially in those areas of the Caucasus and
Central Asia where poverty is widespread, outside exploitation is rife and Islam is rapidly
filling the politico-social vacuum left by the collapse of communism.
China will overtake Japan as the world’s second largest economy by 2015, thus
continuing a putative rise to great power status derived from its economic growth. Its
dependence and impact on an increasingly integrated global economy is likely to be
reflected in a highly pragmatic approach to foreign affairs. However, China will face
significant internal political, environmental and social challenges including a democratic
deficit, demographic imbalances - induced by the momentum of its ‘one-child’ policy and
selective gender practices - a steadily ageing population and a significant, hitherto poorly
mapped, HIV/AIDS problem. Furthermore, continuing disparities in wealth and
opportunity, severe environmental degradation, water and agricultural stress, a dire need
of financial reform and pervasive corruption at all levels of society are likely to lead to
societal conflict and political disruptions.

45

China’s growth depends on access to raw materials at competitive prices, a continuing
appetite in the developed and developing world for its exports and security of the
international system. In future, it may seek to exert economic muscle or other hard power
to protect growth and internal stability. Any non-consensual change to Taiwan’s status is
likely, with little warning, to destabilize rapidly China’s relations with the international
community, in particular the US. Continued economic growth may also create further
regional rivalry and competition with an increasingly confident and vigorous India. Once
China has established itself as a major world power, possibly as early as 2025, it may feel
less constrained in its behaviour, presenting greater challenges to an international system.
China will itself be subject to internal stresses and strains, including marked regional
disparities that may result in widespread social disturbance and disorder. Its traditional
hierarchical society is already in conflict with the transparency, competitiveness and
individual initiative associated with Western values and globalization. These tensions will
be added to the huge social cost of China’s economic growth, typified by alarming levels
of inequality between rich and poor, the coast and the hinterland, the cities and the
countryside and the command-led exploitation of the country, regardless of environmental
or social cohesion effects. The trajectory suggests that aggressive nationalism and
competition may become features of China’s future engagement with the wider world. It
is noteworthy in this regard that, by 2025, China will have about 40m single men and a
rapidly ageing society with no discernible pension provision, health-care or social security
system in place. These aspects are likely to be further exacerbated by rapid
environmental degradation, water shortage and the desertification of already arid and
semi-arid regions.
Japan’s position as the world’s second largest economy will be challenged by Chinese
growth, huge government debt which amounts to 170% of GDP36 and an ageing
population. The economy has recovered from the Asian stock market crash of the late
1990s with a programme of banking and business reform, which will be necessary to
ensure continued Japanese economic prosperity. Japan is likely to demonstrate a
growing willingness to shoulder broader international security burdens alongside the US37
thereby maintaining the more consciously assertive foreign policy demonstrated by the
deployment of Japan’s Self Defence Forces to Iraq in 2004. This reflects Japan’s need to
be able to respond to regional security challenges such as the potential collapse or
aggression of North Korea, or unlikely, but still plausible, Chinese hostility or aggression.
Indonesia’s vast population, under-exploited natural resources and geo-strategic situation
may give it the potential for vigorous economic growth. However, substantial challenges
will remain in the form of a diverse multiracial society with a number of violent separatist
movements and endemic instability. It is also extremely vulnerable to the possibility of
36
37

serious natural disasters caused by seismic and volcanic activity along a particularly
temperamental tectonic fault-line.
India will dominate South Asia, but will face challenges of its own, including its chaotic
infrastructure, extensive rural poverty, a widespread yet under reported HIV/AIDS
epidemic and its relationship with a poor, nuclear-armed Pakistan, and also, emerging
Iran. The relationship between India and Pakistan is likely to deteriorate rapidly if a
radical Islamist government comes to power in Pakistan or if the country spirals out of
control. Furthermore, the persistence of caste mentalities, the exploitation of the benefits
of globalization and growth by the upper and middle classes and the persistence of
Hindu/Muslim extremism suggest that India’s future progress may be slowed to some
degree by political and societal instability, and possibly conflict. The inability of India’s
state education system to generate a sufficiently well educated work force to man its
expanding technical services industry may also stall its economic growth. India’s
democratic institutions and Anglophone culture will however give it advantages for
participation in the global economy, although, by 2035, the growth of Asian economies
will have created a more Asian and less Anglo-centric identity for globalization.
The Middle East – and to a marginally lesser extent North Africa - will remain highly
unstable, with, between them, massive population growth of 25% by 2010 and 50% by
2020 and poor prospects for employment and diversification from its dependence on a
single sector; oil production. The expectations of growing numbers of young people,
many of whom will be confronted by the prospect of endemic unemployment, poor
infrastructure and economic stagnation, are unlikely to be met. Their resentment in the
face of unrepresentative regimes will find outlets in political militancy, including radical
political Islam, whose concept of Umma, the global Islamic community, and resistance to
capitalism may lie uneasily in an international system based on nation-states and global
market forces.

47

GDP
(2003 US $bn)
50000
China

45000
40000

US

35000
30000

India

25000
20000
15000
10000

Japan

5000

Germany

0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Figure 5 - GDP of emerging powers showing dramatic projected growth for India
and China. Source: Goldman Sachs
The effects of this resentment will be expressed through the migration of large youth
populations and globalized communications, enabling regular contact between diaspora
communities and states of origin. Furthermore, many aspects of the modern world which
appear incompatible with Islam, particularly its more extreme interpretations, will further
fuel tension between the Islamic world and the wealthy, materialist and secular nations of
the West in general and the US in particular. Such hostility may increasingly be targeted
at China, whose new-found materialism, economic vibrancy and institutionalized atheism
will be an anathema to orthodox Islam. In the longer term, internal political debate and
demographic trends within Iran may lead it in an internationally less threatening direction.
Israel will be challenged by a combination of widespread regional disturbances, marked
demographic imbalances, the Arab desire to project and focus frustration outwards and
the need to sustain a totemic pan-Islamist cause.
Sub-Saharan Africa will gain only marginal benefit from a globalized economy while
poverty, intercommunal conflict and widespread instability will remain endemic. While
some countries, especially Nigeria and South Africa, may have the potential for energetic
economic growth, the generational imbalances caused by the ravages of HIV/AIDS will
compromise the stable development of future generations. The continuing poverty and
lack of opportunity in Sub-Saharan Africa, together with environmental degradation and
change, will require increased levels of humanitarian assistance and intervention.

48

Without stabilizing policies, migration from south to north in the Continent is likely to
increase greatly during the period, with severe implications for the countries of North
Africa. Despite manifest social, economic and demographic challenges, African wealth in
resources, such as minerals in South Africa and oil in Nigeria, will attract intense interest
from global extractive industries and may stimulate a latter-day “Scramble for Africa”.

Risks
•

New Geopolitics. Global economic and financial interdependency is likely to
reduce, but not eliminate, the risk of major interstate warfare before 2020.
However, increasing pressure on resources, particularly energy, and the growing
assertiveness of emerging powers such as India, China and Iran, beyond this date
may result in the return of great power rivalries as the defining characteristic of
geopolitics, with a consequent increase in the risk of interstate and inter-bloc
conflict.

•

Militant Political Islam. Militant political Islam may coalesce, evolving beyond
currently loose patterns of affiliation, with a clearer sense of common identity
developing among members of disparate Islamic communities. Globalized
communications may provide the means to bring together communities who may
increasingly see political Islam as a suitable vehicle and ideology for addressing
demands for global economic and social justice.

•

Ungoverned Space. Areas that lie beyond effective governance will increase to
include extensive urban areas, which will grow rapidly and in an unstructured way
in developing countries, and will lack resources, municipal infrastructure and the
rule of law. So-called ‘ungoverned spaces’ of all kinds will provide havens from
which terrorist organizations, gangs and organized criminals can operate,
exploiting the complex human and built space.

•

Nuclear Proliferation. The proliferation of nuclear weapons possession beyond
the existing powers, particularly to weak and unstable states, will increase the
risks of more uninhibited, assertive and intemperate behaviour by these polities
while reducing their susceptibility to conventional methods of coercion. Also, the
possession of nuclear weapons by states, whose capacity for ensuring their
security and safety may be inadequate, will increase the risk of these
technologies and associated materials being incompetently handled or acquired by
third parties, including non-state actors such as criminals and terrorists. This
aspect may lead to an increased risk of potentially catastrophic environmental
damage as well as creating substantial new global and regional security
challenges.

Ascending China. China is likely to maintain a pragmatic approach to the
conduct of international relations, with foreign policy and economic investment
decisions unconstrained by ethical considerations. However, environmental,
demographic and economic stress may lead to internal unrest, which a future
Chinese government may seek to project externally, coupled with a desire to
dominate her near-abroad in East Asia. This aspect may revive historic tensions
and possibly military confrontation, with traditional regional rivals such as Japan,
Korea and the US. Taiwanese and other separatism, which will be opposed
vigorously by Beijing, together with the need to secure resources to sustain
economic growth, may encourage a more forward leaning posture.

•

US Decouples from Europe. A shift in the US strategic focus towards Asia, as
well as a changing balance of power in the Americas, based on Brazil’s economic
growth, may result in a significant reduction in its engagement with Europe and
challenge the viability of NATO as the dominant provider of European security and
defence architecture. However, the US will need to safeguard its continuing
interests in the Middle East, particularly the region’s energy resources and its

50

relationship with Israel, and these are likely to ensure continuing defence and
security cooperation with European partners, probably at reduced in-place levels,
but with a correspondingly greater investment in expeditionary and Continental
US-based quick reaction capabilities.

38

•

Middle East Instability. High birth rates and demographic momentum in the Arab
world, combined with poor economic prospects, widespread regional instability and
continuing likely failure to resolve the Israel/Palestine conflict will exacerbate
existing regional tensions, with wider international implications, given the vital
strategic significance of the region’s energy resources and proximity to other
possible flash points. Israel will face consistent hostility, demographic pressure
and aggression from the wider Islamic world.

•

Saudi Arabian Instability. Saudi Arabia is the dominant member of OPEC with
22% of the world’s oil reserves. Owing to ever increasing global demand for
energy to support economic growth, especially in Asia, Saudi Arabia’s future
stability will be crucial to achieving sustained global economic activity. This
stability will be challenged by several factors including: Jihadist terrorists
discouraging foreign participation in the energy industry; unemployment levels of
over 20%; and a continuing ‘youth bulge’ in a state whose population has risen
from 7 to 27 million since 1980.38 Any political or societal dislocation in Saudi
Arabia will have global implications.

•

North Korea Implodes. North Korea is likely to become increasingly brittle over
time through economic mismanagement, demographic pressure and
environmental stress, threatening eventual political collapse. Resulting risks will
range from sudden mass population movements into neighbouring states, to the
threat of conflict by a nuclear-armed regime increasingly aware of the imminent
risk of its own collapse and its potential to blackmail the international community.
The unification of Korea is a distinct possibility during the period, with implications
for South Korea in taking on the substantial unification burden, and for the region,
especially Japan, of contemplating a nuclear-armed Korea.

•

India-Pakistan. Long-standing tensions between these regional rivals are likely to
threaten military confrontation, with the ultimate, but at present distant, risk of
regional nuclear conflict. A collapse of Pakistan’s current political structures in the
face of continued radicalization and extremist violence and its transformation into
an unstable, nuclear-armed entity would present a more dangerous risk for the
region.

Ian Bremmer, ‘The J-Curve; A New Way to Understand why Nations Rise and Fall’, Simon and Schuster, 2006.

51

•

Iranian Assertiveness. Iran will steadily grow in economic and demographic
strength, based on its oil and gas reserves, its central geo-strategic situation and
its rapidly increasing youth population. Its large energy resources and
geographical location at the entrance to the Persian Gulf will give it substantial
strategic leverage. In the first part of the period, its regional ambitions will involve
active support of Islamist terrorist organizations, the assertion of its primacy in the
Gulf region and the desire to develop its own nuclear weapon capability. Its
foreign policy will continue to involve a closer relationship with China and Russia
and continued suspicion of the US and the West, as long as it is in the interests of
the governing regime to do so. However, from the middle of the period, the
country, especially its high proportion of younger people, will want to benefit from
increased access to globalization and diversity, and it may be that Iran
progressively, but unevenly transforms, with growing prosperity and the pressure
of demographics, into a vibrant democracy.

•

European Stagnation. Slowing of momentum towards greater political integration
by the EU and likely economic and political divergence among its enlarged
membership may result in a general weakening of its potential for situational
development and coherence. This may render European states increasingly
vulnerable to globalized challenges, such as economic competition, mass
migration, terrorism, international crime and climate change, to which no single
nation can respond effectively. On the other hand, this combination of challenges
may lead to greater cooperation, based around mutual or bilateral self-interest and
common causes or threats. The potential for populism, revived nationalism and
economic protectionism will remain high in the face of globalization, ageing and
social fragmentation. Further momentum for greater political integration is
unlikely unless stimulated by the re-emergence of a significant, tangible and
immediate threat to European security.

•

UN Decline. Failure by the UN to reform and to exert leadership would be likely
to result in eroding its credibility and authority, as well as its ability to resolve
conflict and deal with the symptoms and challenges of global crisis. This may
encourage individual powers or new groupings to fill the vacuum, but international
consensus or expression of the common will are unlikely to be achieved and
those intervening may pursue individual ends based on pragmatic self-interest
rather than the common good, thereby expanding the risks of wider confrontation
and conflict.

Defence and Security Implications
•

Transnational, Inter-communal Conflict. Transnational, inter-communal conflict
may increase as a result of migration and the persistence of unassimilated
diasporae, leading to the diversification of hitherto localized rivalries. Globalized

52

processes will also enable conflict between communities to be continued,
irrespective of the physical distance between them.
•

Irregular Activity. In the absence of direct, open state-on-state conflict, there will
be a marked increase in the prevalence of irregular activity. Most will demonstrate
features associated with criminality, terrorism, disorder and insurgency, fuelled by
nominal or actual grievance, deprivation and resentment, or simply in reaction to
market forces or boredom. There will also be increased sponsorship of irregular
activity and groups by states, seeking to utilize and exploit, through proxy, gaps in
the international system, either to assert themselves or secure advantage without
exposing themselves to state-on-state risks. Armed criminal, terrorist or insurgent
groups, trained and experienced in conflicts and struggles around the world and
knowing no other existence, will be part of the strategic landscape and will need
to be identified and countered.

•

Islamist Terrorism. Acts of extreme violence, supported by elements within
Islamist states, with sophisticated networks and media exploitation to maximize the
impact of the ‘Theatre of Violence’ will continue to persist. Unassimilated Muslim
diaspora populations in Europe will harbour elements, possibly well armed and
violent, dedicated to disrupting and destabilizing host societies, possibly leading
to social disorder and violence. The disparate character of Islam, combined with
selective interpretations of scripture by its adherents, will give rise to divisions that
may, depending on location and circumstances, either exacerbate or mitigate
these effects.

•

Soft Power. The ability to use and counter ‘Soft power’,39 centred on access to
target audiences through projection of culture, investment, education, development
and other non-coercive means will be of increasing significance to both state and
non-state actors. It may enable more discriminating use of the military instrument
of power.

•

Rising China and India. Both China and India are likely to play an increasingly
active role in international security arrangements, reflecting their growing global
economic interests and regional influence. China’s role will become especially
significant, based on a growing range of partners and clients, particularly among
world energy producers, and its need for stability in the international system.
China’s growing economic power, combined with its institutionalized atheism, may
create tension between it and the Islamic world although China’s ruthless
pragmatism may find means of accommodation. It is also possible that India and
China, in competing for the same markets and partners may become strategic
rivals. Equally, however, they may combine to exclude Western influence from

39

‘Soft power’ is defined as cooption rather than coercion and rests on the ability to shape the preferences of others; its
resources are values, culture, policies and institutions.

53

Asia and from the Indian Ocean, the East Asian archipelagic zone and the South
China Sea.
•

The Nuclear Club. Exceptional states with nuclear weapons, such as Pakistan,
possibly North Korea, and potentially Iran, will remain vulnerable to instability until
at least 2020 and the collapse of central authority in any of them would increase
already significant proliferation risks. In time, other potentially unstable nations
and non-state actors, may develop or acquire access to such capabilities,
requiring the development of responses to both irrational use and the risk of
control failure by nuclear armed states.

•

Russia. Russia is unlikely to threaten its Western neighbours with direct military
force, although its wealth in energy resources will give it substantial strategic
leverage. Its military strategic priorities are likely to remain concerned with
maintaining high capability and quality nuclear and defence forces and the ability
to respond to instability internally and around its periphery, particularly in the
Caucasus. Russia may develop and favour a twin track approach whereby it
emerges as a strategic partner with Europe and a strategic competitor in Asia. In
all cases, it will seek to exclude Western, especially US, influence and investment
in Central Asia and its near-abroad.

•

The Middle East. The Middle East’s potential for instability, its proximity to Europe
and its importance as a source of energy will ensure that the region remains an
area of significant security concern, probably demanding substantial operational
commitment to bolster stability and secure access, as well as containment of the
more violent symptoms of crisis.

•

Africa. Environmental stress, demographic pressure and political instability will
continue to threaten major upheaval, the effects of which will include mass
migration, humanitarian crises, international crime and potentially, international
terrorism. The resulting risks to near neighbours, including Europe, will demand
wide-ranging defence and security responses. African mineral wealth will ensure
continued economic significance within the global economy and corresponding
interest from more economically powerful states.

•

Future European Defence Capabilities. NATO is likely to remain the defence and
security provider of choice for European states. However, gradual US
disengagement from Europe as a consequence of increasing strategic challenges
in the Asia-Pacific region and the changing political complexion of South America,
coupled with any failure of NATO to meet its operational objectives in theatres
such as Afghanistan, may weaken the case for NATO and its effectiveness as an
international alliance. EU defence collaboration is likely to develop under the
aegis of the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), especially in response

54

to instability in the Middle East and North Africa. However, it is unlikely to achieve
the levels of cohesion in military command or levels of resources available to
NATO. Similarly, EU military ambitions will be constrained by limited defence
spending by European nations. Increased political and security emphasis will be
required to ensure stable co-existence with the North African littoral and new
partners to the East and innovative, flexible security arrangements may be
required. A national resurgence based on authoritarian government and energy
wealth may result in increased Russian, or even Chinese, influence on Europe.
â&#x20AC;˘

Maritime Security. Most of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade, by bulk, particularly energy, will
continue to transit by sea and through maritime choke points such as the Straits of
Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Straits of Malacca, in areas which will remain
highly unstable. This will demand high levels of international cooperation and a
continuing dependence on the deployment of maritime power.

â&#x20AC;˘

Force Projection. In the face of political, human and financial risks of intervention,
developed states may be increasingly reluctant to expend resources and
manpower on failed states and ungoverned space. Significant forces are unlikely
to be sent abroad for enduring operations without the consent of the local
population and in the absence of an unequivocal international mandate or a
credible national benefit. There is likely to be more emphasis on the active
containment of aggressors, symptoms of crisis and irregular elements, to deter
and defeat military threats to partners and the international system. In these
circumstances, the ability to secure and maintain free access to areas of strategic
and operational interest will remain vital.

Potential Trend Variation
Global economic and financial interdependency will ensure that the effects of any major
regional or national economic downturn will be felt throughout the developed world. In
response to such failure, individual states may seek to reverse the trend towards
globalization and close borders and markets in an attempt to protect their populations
from the consequences of deep economic recession. Such a reduction of
interdependency, combined with social tensions arising from economic hardship, may
create conditions of regional instability, making interstate conflict more common and
likely. A return to more clearly defined national and regional blocs may be compounded
by failure of multinational institutions such as an unreformed UN or a moribund EU.
Political and market reform in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa may allow the
development of broader economic activity and consequent economic growth, thereby
reducing the stimuli for instability, conflict, disorder and forced migration. Such economic
improvements may allow hitherto undeveloped areas to exploit the advantages of the
global economy, leading to sustainable development and poverty reduction. Such

55

changes in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as closer alignment of interests with
the EU, may assist in offsetting the extreme politicization of Islam, in stimulating greater
prosperity, the alleviation of absolute poverty and an easing of tensions with the West. It
would seem likely that other states will seek the status and assurances associated with
nuclear weapons.

Hot Topic â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Soft Power
During the next 30 years, globalization and especially the Information Revolution will
significantly enhance the impact and utility of Soft Power. Growing interconnectedness will enable groups and individuals to coalesce around common
interests in ways which transcend national boundaries. An important feature will be
the attraction of participants to those ideas, cultures and lifestyles that offer the
greatest potential for securing and advancing their interests.
While the US model of individual freedom, expression and opportunity has
substantially prevailed as an aspiration, the EU has been markedly successful as a
Soft Power attractor and China is already proving, through its promotion of Chinese
culture, language and infrastructure projects abroad that it intends to deploy significant
Soft Power in the future. The main features of the Chinese approach are likely to be
entrepreneurial, pragmatic and the promotion of a pan-Asian affinity.
Increasingly, Soft Power will be wielded by a broader spectrum of actors and
agencies, even by criminal, terrorist and insurgency groups as a means of
complementing their more coercive, violent activities. Investment in infrastructures,
charities and humanitarian projects will increasingly represent ways in which states,
organizations and individuals seek influence, democratic or populist approval and
loyalty. These groupings will be highly volatile, dissolving either when interests are
achieved, or when more favourable opportunities present themselves, with those least
constrained by legal accountability or moral considerations the most likely to be
effective at manipulating the use of Soft Power. For example, terrorists will exploit
globalized communications to maximise the apparent potency and appeal of their
actions, not only to intimidate victim communities, but also as a Soft Power attractor
among potential communities of support.

56

Science and Technology
Scope
For much of the last century, Research and Development (R&D) was preoccupied with the
need to maintain an edge in a succession of 2 global wars and the confrontation
associated with the Cold War, with benefits and innovations leading to wider commercial
applications. By the closing years of the twentieth century, this relationship was
transformed by the Information Revolution, the decline in the immediacy of interstate
warfare and an unparalleled growth in global trade, entrepreneurial investment and
technological innovation.
The Science and Technology Dimension considers how innovation might unfold over
the next 30 years, dealing, in particular, with the rapidly expanding global appetite and
market for scientific knowledge, the influence of emerging economies and the resulting
potential for technology breakthroughs. It also considers the ethical and regulatory
challenges that may result from these processes and analyses trends in:
•

The nature and geography of innovation.

•

Potential technology breakthroughs.

•

Information and Communications Technology (ICT).

•

Regulation, control and ethics.

The Hot Topic in this dimension is The Scramble for Space.

Outcomes
Technology is likely to produce breakthrough events at an unprecedented rate in the
period to out 2035. Whilst government and military funded research will continue to
provide significant novel, niche applications especially in Russia, China and the US, the
overall pace and direction of technological development is likely to be driven by
globalized demand and commercial logic. The Information Revolution and increasing
numbers of graduate level engineers and science professionals in the developing world
will further stimulate the process. Under these conditions, knowledge and innovation will
become more diffuse and internationalized, accelerating the development process, but
also making the likelihood and frequency of breakthroughs less predictable. The
changing pattern of global R&D and the mobility of labour will assist innovation and will
erode the technological dominance of leading Western nations, including in the Defence
field, although it will be some time before US levels of investment and achievement in this
crucial field are seriously challenged. The diffusion of innovation and scientific

57

development, especially through the expansion of hi-tech business and solutions
worldwide, is likely to increase the risk of technology leakage and irresponsible or illicit
use.
Global economic growth, cheaper commodities and wider accessibility will sustain
demand for technological applications, thus improving material living standards for most of
the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population. Technology may mitigate issues that contribute to global
instability; innovations in energy technology may reduce pressure on markets dominated
by oil, either through the development of new sources, or the evolution of current
hydrocarbon technology to include carbon capture and the manufacturing of synthetic
fuels. Similarly, breakthroughs in agriculture and medicine may increase food security
and improve health. However, it is more likely that there will be a widening gap between
those people with sufficient means and access to these developments through their
inherent advantages of wealth, education and market reform, and those who have not.
Many of the latter will continue to be concentrated in regions which are least integrated
within the globalized economy, where human security risks, poverty and technical
backwardness are greatest.
While it will be difficult to predict particular breakthroughs, trend analysis indicates that
the most substantial technological developments will be in: ICT, biotechnology, energy,
cognitive science, smart materials and sensor/network technology. Advanced
nanotechnology will underpin many breakthroughs, (See text box). Developments in
these areas are likely to be evolutionary, but where disciplines interact, such as in the
combination of Cognitive Science and ICT to produce advanced decision-support tools,
developments are likely to be revolutionary, resulting in the greatest opportunities for
novel or decisive application. Most technological breakthroughs will be positive, however,
many advances will also present potential threats, either through perverse applications,
such as the use of genetic engineering to produce designer bio-weapons or unstable
substances, or through the unanticipated consequences of experimental technological
innovation.
Greater connectivity and accessibility to information through the proliferation of ICT will
stimulate intensifying international debate on ethics, regulation and law, and will cause
religious, ethical and moral concerns and disputes. The pace and diffusion of R&D and
the operation of commercial imperatives will make global regulation difficult and will
increase the opportunities for unethical or irresponsible actors to evade control. In
addition, the effectiveness of regulation is likely to vary by culture, region or country, with
an uneven application of, and access to, innovation. However, these issues are likely to
be highly politicized and the issues are likely, on past evidence, to cause localized
disorder and possibly organized violence.

58

Areas of Potential Scientific and Technological Breakthrough
Nanotechnology - Advanced nanotechnology, at the interdisciplinary frontier where
physics, chemistry and biology meet, will be a key enabler of technological advance and
will underpin many breakthroughs, including materials and sensor development and their
application in manufacturing, synthetic reproduction and health care. Nanotechnology will
result in more-capable systems and artefacts that are smaller, lighter, cheaper and less
energy hungry. Out to 2020, its application is likely to be predominantly in electronics
and materials, including bacteria resistant agents, stain resistant materials and
nanocomposite materials. After 2020, nanodevices are likely, such as nanobots.
ICT - By the end of the period it is likely that the majority of the global population will find
it difficult to ‘turn the outside world off’. ICT40 is likely to be so pervasive that people are
permanently connected to a network or two-way data stream with inherent challenges to
civil liberties; being disconnected could be considered suspicious. There are a number of
trends that will lead to this pervasiveness including: an expanding global economy,
potentially far-reaching improvements in processing power, greater cultural assimilation
and awareness of technology, and the continued convergence of information and
communication technologies. In turn, ICT will itself be a major engine of growth for the
global economy.
Biotechnology - Development in biotechnology is likely to be swift as indicated by the
significant increase in global biotech revenues ($23bn in 2000 to $50bn in 200541) and the
purchase by large pharmaceutical companies of biotech firms in order to secure the most
likely avenue for future drug blockbuster development42. Advances in the understanding
of the building blocks of life will lead to significant progress in many areas such as genetic
engineering and microbiology. We can expect an increase in human life span through
better disease control, precisely customised drugs, gene therapy and age mitigation (and
possibly age reversal). Quality of life will also improve through, for example, the
development of bionic implants, memory enhancing drugs, increased use of animal
transplants, development of artificial sensors capable of interfacing with the human mind
and prosthetics capable of mimicking human actions precisely, improving human
performance beyond current levels. Stem cell and tissue engineering are likely to offer
novel forms of treatment for missing, damaged or diseased tissue.43 Biotechnology also
has the potential to increase food production and quality/nutritional value through Genetic
Modification (GM), (for example, ‘Golden Rice’ containing fortified vitamin A is now
available in Africa and South East Asia). However, the high cost of biotechnology R&D, at
40

least initially, the large variation in the quality and efficiency of processing, delivery and
distribution networks are likely to make the application and benefits of biotechnology
uneven.
New Energy Technology - New sources of power generation are likely to become
commercially available and viable during the period. However, advances may be
evolutionary rather than revolutionary during the first half of the period owing to the legacy
of, and sunk investment in, current methods of oil-based energy conversion, remaining,
accessible oil stocks and the likely viability of manufacturing oil, particularly from shale
and coal. This evolutionary approach may continue to expose the global market to price
fluctuations and risk based on hydrocarbon dependency. Towards the end of the period,
major advances are anticipated in other sources, possibly including nuclear fusion.
There is likely to be a strong market for smaller, more efficient autonomous power
supplies throughout the period, which is likely to lead to accelerated research in ethanol,
methanol, hydrogen and radical fuel cell options. Renewable energy sources will also
find niche markets as indicated by the success of bio-fuels in Brazil, but these are only
expected to make up 8% of global energy supply by 2020.44
Cognitive Science - Routes to the direct application of advances in cognitive science are
less clear than nanotechnology or biotechnology; however, indications are that
interdisciplinary advances involving cognitive science are likely to enable us more
effectively to map cognitive processes. Soft Artificial Intelligence is already well
established with self diagnosing and self reconfiguring networks in use and self repairing
networks likely in the next 10 years. Mapping of human brain functions and the
replication of genuine intelligence is possible before 2035.
Sensor and Network Technology - Our reliance on networks and the complex nature of
our environment, often with poorly understood properties, will increase. Higher
bandwidth, greater processing power, larger datasets, smaller sensors and greater
understanding of the dynamics of physical and virtual network behaviour will converge to
allow new types of network connection. However, the growth of many networks is not and
cannot be governed by top-down planning and occurs in a decentralized manner, often
analogous to naturally occurring systems. There is therefore a need to understand
network topology in order to improve effectiveness and reduce vulnerability; for example,
disease can travel more readily through certain types of network with implications both for
epidemiology and for the spread of viruses through the internet.45

Uncertainty. In a fast-changing area, it is difficult and foolish, outside the realms
of science fiction, to forecast in any depth technological breakthroughs or their
likely applications. Many of the interrelated effects of globalization, including
market-manipulation by existing stakeholders, the unpredictability of consumer
demand and complex routes to market, will make predictions for the future even
less certain. Many issues, including control regimes, will have to be addressed as
they arise, although it might be anticipated that some issues will become highly
charged.

•

Unintended Consequences. The accelerating pace of innovation and the possible
rewards will increase the likelihood and frequency of breakthroughs, any of which
may result in unintended consequences, with potentially catastrophic effects.
Conversely, there may be political pressure to adopt a precautionary or regulatory
protectionist approach. For example, European public concerns over geneticallymodified crops and other products could inhibit research, causing the benefits of
technological progress to dissipate and allowing other regions to take the lead.

•

Dependence on Technology. The breadth and depth of the application of
innovation will generate an unprecedented reliance on technology. Increased
access to and the rapid cultural assimilation of technology will render future
generations increasingly vulnerable to the deliberate or unintentional disruption of
technology-based utilities. Sophisticated societies are likely to be more
vulnerable to such disruption as they increasingly exist in a virtual environment in
contrast to less technologically advanced societies.

•

Information Explosion. Responding to the increased speed and volume of
information will challenge effective decision-making progressively at all levels.
Greater personal, corporate and military dependence on ICT and commercial interconnectedness and applications will create greater vulnerabilities and fragility,
magnifying the impact of information denial, failure or manipulation. The Internet
will cause continuing leakage and diffusion of sensitive and potentially dangerous
information about weapons and disruptive technology. The truth will not always
be based on objective analysis but on what ‘is believed’.

•

Narrowing Technological Advantage. The relocation of high value-added
technology manufacturing in emerging countries and developing economies
(associated with the transfer of technical expertise, including production design)
will soon result in a narrowing and, in some cases, the complete erosion of the
advantage currently enjoyed by leading economies in many areas of technology.

61

The problem will be exacerbated by industrial espionage on a large scale and the
penetration of commercial networks.
•

The Role of Artificial Intelligence. The simulation of cognitive processes using
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is likely to be employed to manage knowledge and
support decision-making, with applications across government and commercial
sectors. Reliance on AI will create new vulnerabilities that are likely be exploited
by criminals, terrorists or other opponents.

•

Authenticity of Information. The information environment will become
increasingly crowded and of variable authenticity, with a proliferation of chat
rooms, weblogs and themed websites, which will attract growing numbers of
Internet users, for example, the number of Internet hosts worldwide grew from 6.64
m in Jul 95 to 353.28 m in Jul 05.46 Information will increasingly be circulated
through, and processed and generated by, these and more advanced media,
becoming progressively more difficult to source and validate.

•

Erosion of Civil Liberties. Technology will enable pervasive surveillance in
response to terrorism, rising transnational crime and the growing capability of
disparate groups or individuals to inflict catastrophic damage or disruption.
Coupled with intrusive, highly responsive and accessible data-bases, the
emergence of a so-called ‘surveillance society’ will increasingly challenge
assumptions about privacy, with corresponding impacts on civil liberties and
human rights. These capabilities will be deployed by the private as well as the
public sector.

•

Ethical Challenges. The rate of innovation is likely to result in a significant lag
between radical innovations and the development of ethical norms governing their
application. Also, the diffuse nature of innovation may make it easier for unethical
actors to evade controls, leading to perverse applications - for example, genetic
information could be used to exploit or attack specific ethnic groups.

•

Inequality. Scientific breakthroughs are likely to have the potential to improve the
quality of life for many, for example in the safe genetic modification of crops or
through stem cell research. However, a combination of market pricing or ethically
based regulation may obstruct access by those who might wish or need to benefit
most, thereby reinforcing inequality and a sense of grievance.

Defence and Security Implications
•

46

Information Warfare. Many states are developing highly sophisticated information
and cultural warfare capabilities and exploiting the pervasiveness and pliability of

Internet Systems Consortium.

62

digital information to gain commercial or political advantage. In addition, the threat
of opportunistic hacking and network manipulation will continue, but at an
increasing rate and intensity as criminals move into fresh markets. Both will
represent a significant threat to military ICT systems, which will require robust and
comprehensive protection, fall-back options that do not depend on commercial
bearers and unhindered access to exclusive space-based (or intra-atmospheric)
platforms.

47

•

Encryption. Along with the increasing use of obscure languages and
commercially available ‘strong’ encryption, enhanced software and more agile
broadband applications may reduce the capacity of Western intelligence
penetration and exploitation in cyber-space. In addition, if significant
developments in quantum computing occur, sufficient encryption algorithms may
be unlocked to provide strategic advantage to the discoverer.

•

Technology Leakage. Despite multi-lateral regulation and security, deliberate and
accidental technology leakage, through internet and other digital devices, as well
as telecommunications and the media, will lead to a widening number of state and
non-state actors accessing advanced and sensitive technologies. This may result
in the acquisition by state or non-state opponents of CBRN, or novel weapons
such as Directed Energy or Electromagnetic Pulse technologies and devices. Socalled ethical scientists are likely (as in the Cold War) to reveal details of
advanced programmes in the interests of ensuring a ‘level playing field’ and
balance of risk.

•

Defence R&D. The role of Defence R&D is likely to mainly shift from the
development of new technologies, to partnerships that can access and exploit
technologies that are the products of commercially funded research. States that
wish to maintain a technological advantage in military capability will probably
require R&D programmes that are capable of drawing from an increasingly diverse
global knowledge and technology base, and then adapting and applying that
technology to military use.47

•

Rapid Obsolescence. The predicted pace of innovation is likely to render existing
technologies obsolescent more quickly than at present, challenging procurement
cycles and closing the technology gap by allowing less technologically capable
states, regimes and groups to embrace new technology without having to upgrade
legacy systems.

•

Defence Niches. Certain sensitive applications, such as decisive or revolutionary
systems and weapons, especially those associated with deterrence and mass

‘Defence and Peace Economics’: Andrew Middleton DG(R&T), MOD, Apr 06.

63

effect, will increasingly be developed in discreet (and discrete) partnerships.
Specific national or closely allied expertise and investment will be required to
address, for example nuclear, counter-terrorism and chemical and biological
defence. In these cases, the supplier is likely to remain in-house to Defence, or
government-to-government. Direct investment will also remain important where
there is no civilian counterpart, such as high-performance explosives, certain
protection and guidance systems, and specific sensors.
•

Ethical Intervention. The scientific community will seek to influence policymaking, especially in Western societies and ‘whistle-blowing’ will become more
likely, particularly in ethically-charged areas, such as the application of technology
for defence and security purposes. Furthermore, the incidence of ethical, cultural,
religious or legal controls and constraints is likely to be uneven, offering those with
less regulatory control the opportunity for significant and potentially asymmetric
advantage.

•

Wider Availability of Affordable Technology. The wider availability of affordable
technology that has both military and commercial use will benefit the less
technologically capable, particularly through cheap, novel applications, as in the
use of mobile phones to detonate bombs.

•

Rapid Mass-Mobilization. The growing pervasiveness of ICT will enable
communities of interest to be established rapidly and for the quick and coordinated
mobilization of significant numbers of people. Rapid mobilization – ‘Flashmobs’ may be undertaken by states, terrorists and criminals, and may involve dispersed
communities across international boundaries, challenging security forces to match
this potential agility and ability to concentrate.

•

Unmanned Technologies. Advances in autonomous systems, which promise to
reduce substantially the physical risks to humans and mitigate some of their
weaknesses, will allow the wider exploration and exploitation of extreme or
hazardous environments such as deep sea, underground, contaminated areas and
outer space. Furthermore, these technologies will allow increased Defence
exploitation in all environments with a correspondingly reduced risk to military
personnel and an expanded range of capabilities. AI and the effective replication
of human judgement processes, when combined with autonomous systems,
particularly robotics, are likely to enable the application of lethal force without
human intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues.

Potential Trend Variation
R&D that is driven increasingly by commercial demand will make investment and
innovation potentially vulnerable to economic downturn. Failure of the global economy to

64

grow as predicted may delay the development of revealed innovations and it is possible
that all substantive innovation may stall. Other factors, which could cause the rate of
progress to slow, include a less permissive environment for innovation, possibly caused
by rising cultural conservatism in response to the more disruptive features of globalization
and to a decline in those places where the number of graduates studying sciences has
fallen. A resurgence of economic protectionism may also slow innovation by limiting the
operation of the international knowledge economy. Finally, it is possible, based on
historic experience, that the world may reach a temporary, but lasting, technology ceiling,
which is impossible to penetrate without a cumulative succession of linked, but at present
perceptually unrelated, breakthroughs.
Conversely, it is possible that innovation will take place even more rapidly than is
anticipated. Breakthroughs such as the early development of quantum computing will
add significant impetus to the pace of technological change and information processing.
Specific advances may also have significant geopolitical impacts. For example, a
breakthrough in energy technology will alter the global significance of the Middle East,
reducing Western strategic dependence on an unstable and volatile area.

Exploration on Mars, an Artists Impression - Source: Empics.com

65

Hot Topic – The Scramble for Space
Since the end of the Cold War, space has generally been perceived as a benign
environment. However, technology is now opening the door to space for more nations
and applications and there is potential for a second space race. Whilst manned
exploration of our solar system will remain the purview of only a few nations,48 unmanned
space-based utilities will become economically viable for many more nations.
Advances in enabling technologies, cheaper launch techniques and platforms will enable
space-based programmes to operate with greater economies of scale. Emerging nations
will utilise this increased access to space,49 with countries such as China and India, in
particular, expanding their space programmes.50 However, reducing launch costs, more
varied propulsion methods and a highly mobile and competitive technical knowledge and
equipment market will also encourage a much broader range of nations and other actors
to exploit space, as seen by recent initiatives by Algeria, Nigeria and Brazil. National
prestige will remain a motivating factor, but the significant advantages in economic,
commercial and defence and security areas offered by dual-use space utilities, will
become increasingly attractive to states.51
There will be large and rapid increases in the capabilities of space-based utilities, with
commercial off-the-shelf technology a key driver and energetic commercial activity
developing towards the end of the period. The strongest growth in civil, defence and
security applications will include: telecommunications; positioning and navigation; and
earth observation. The latter is likely to include large numbers of agile satellites capable
of being repositioned to enhance connectivity on demand, for instance, to provide
enhanced media coverage of key world events. Space based systems may be sought to
mitigate the effects of climate change, or to harness climatological features in the support
of military or strategic advantage. Venus is likely to be a particular object of curiosity in
interpreting climate change while more detailed studies of the Sun will enhance our
understanding of solar weather. These studies will increase our understanding of these
effects on the Earth and its environment.
There will be a revival of interest in manned space exploration, led by the US,52 but
quickly joined by China and Russia, to penetrate deeper into the Solar System with the
Moon and Mars primary targets for extensive, possibly exploitative exploration. This will
raise jurisdictional, ownership and competitive rights issues.
48

‘Star Wars between Russia, China and the US’ – The Times online 2 Sep 06.
Illustrated by the average increase in orbital launch capacity of one nation every eight years, ‘Space Security 2004’ –
Space Security.org - ISBN 0-920231-35-7.
50
The budget of the Indian Space Research Organisation grew in real terms by 60% between 1990 and 2000 ‘Space
Security 2004’ – Space Security.org - ISBN 0-920231-35-7.
51
Dual-use implies commercial space utilities and hardware that could be used for military purposes, for example,
commercial or civil micro-satellites that could be manoeuvred to impair or destroy other satellites.
52
Proposed manned missions to the Moon and Mars were announced by President George W. Bush 14 Jan 04 – Office of
the Press Secretary, the White House press release 14 Jan 04.
49

66

The military use of space, with the US retaining its overall lead, will also remain a
significant driver of R&D and of competition for bearers and locations in space. Military
and civilian applications that require range and visibility, particularly sensing applications,
are currently moving from ground to airborne use and, as they become practically and
economically viable, many of these applications will be increasingly exploited either in the
high atmosphere or in space. The high civil and military impact of the loss of space-based
utilities will result in an increase in measures to ensure their security, including likely
investment in physical security that may involve built-in redundancy, passive protection
and intelligence on potential threats. Other measures are likely to include international
agreements to reduce potential sources of tension and disagreement, for example, access
to communications frequencies and orbital locations. However, these treaties may prove
fragile and difficult to enforce, with greater dual use blurring boundaries and adding more
uncertainty in analysing the intent of satellite owners.
Given current multi-lateral agreements and technical factors, the effective weaponization
of space is unlikely before 2020. However, nations will seek to inhibit the use of space
by opponents through a combination of electromagnetic manipulation, hard-kill from
ground-based sensor and weapon systems, the targeting of supporting ground-based
infrastructure and a range of improvised measures. At its most extreme, the
weaponization of space may eventually include the development of space-based strike
weapons capable of attacking ground-based and other space targets; for example solid
metal projectiles travelling at orbital velocities, so-called ‘rods from the gods’. However,
this will remain extremely unlikely without the prospect of sustained and extreme
deterioration in international relationships and will be technically difficult to achieve before
2020.
‘Space junk’53 will require active management as the increasing volume of orbital traffic by
an ever widening range of space users will present an increased risk to the integrity of
existing systems and services through collision or other forms of interference. The
potential size of the problem will require significant levels of investment and international
collaboration, both politically and commercially.
Finally, space exploration on the scale envisaged, particularly the potential exploitation of
resources on other planets, will require significant funding, entrepreneurial flair and a
degree of financial risk taking. Such funding and risk may be more easily absorbed by
nations that are economically vibrant yet rely less than others on democracy and
capitalism, enabling them to gain a significant fiscal and R&D advantage that could
ultimately lead to strategic advantage. Equally, funding is increasingly likely to be
generated by cooperative ventures, either national, that could spawn new and unexpected
inter-state allegiances, or commercial, that could erode state control of space and place
control increasingly in the hands of multinational corporations or wealthy individuals.

53

Approximately 13,000 objects large enough to seriously damage or destroy a spacecraft were in orbit (2004) – over 90
percent of which was space debris – Space Security 2004, Space Security Org ISBN 0-920231-35-7.

67

Military Dimension
Scope
Since the Cold War, the likelihood of major interstate warfare has perceptually become
more remote while the possibilities for societal conflict have seemed more likely to cause
confrontation and crisis. The Military Dimension draws on outcomes identified in the
other dimensions to consider how they will shape trends in conflict and warfare for the
next 30 years. In doing so, it will consider future risks of conflict, the resourcing of conflict,
the extent to which conflict will take place in new contexts and use novel means, and the
extent to which the expressions warfare and military activity will change.
The Military Dimension analyses trends in:
•

Conflict and confrontation.

•

Conflict environments.

•

Organization and resources.

•

Conflict actors and human impacts.

•

Attitudes, laws and norms in conflict.

The Hot Topic in this dimension is The Balance of Military Capability.

Outcomes
Major interstate wars will be unlikely, because of the increasing economic
interdependence of states in a globalized economy and the need to confront the
symptoms of a challenging range of transnational problems, which will enhance the
requirement for cooperative governance and action. Also, the potential increase in the
number of nuclear-armed states may be a further restraining factor. However, the risks of
inter-state war may increase beyond 2020 when intensifying competition for resources,
particularly energy and possibly food, and continued population growth result in
heightened tension.
Conflict and crisis will become increasingly complex and unpredictable, both in their
incidence and character, during the period to 2035, with serious interstate rivalry probably
expressing itself through proxy actions by hostile groups who may or may not have issues
of their own. Irregular activity will be the prevailing theme of the period out to at least
2020, based on grievance, resentment, perceived inequalities and legacy mythologies and
characterized by terrorism, insurgency, serious criminality and disorder.

68

Some of this activity may be widespread and endemic depending on local conditions and
circumstances. However, overall, it will involve a range of active state, group and
individual participants who will concentrate and operate, both globally and locally,
wherever they can gain advantage in relation to opponents or objectives.
In the use of violence and the threat of force, military and civil distinctions will become
blurred and weapons and technologies will be more widely available to potential
combatants and individuals. The greatest risks of large-scale conflict will be in areas of
economic vulnerability, poor governance, environmental and demographic stress and
enduring inequality and hardship, especially where there has been a history of recurring
conflict (See Figure 2). Most conflicts will be societal, involving civil war, intercommunal
violence, insurgency, pervasive criminality and widespread disorder. However, in areas
subject to significant demographic and wealth imbalances, there will be a risk of large
scale cross-border migration and exogenous shock. Finally, a trend towards societal
conflict will be reflected in the continuing prevalence of civilian casualties, as it takes
place in increasingly urbanized situations and human networks.

Figure 6 - Global Trends in Armed Conflict: Levels of Conflict peaked during the Cold-War
end-game. Future resource and other stresses may bring the subsequent lull to an end Source: CIDCM.

The legal, technological, social and environmental contexts for conflict will contribute
significantly to its complexity and will create major challenges for those engaged in the

69
.

planning and conduct of operations. Affluent and well-integrated states will seek to abide
by international legal norms, while poor and weakly-integrated states and non-state actors
are unlikely to be similarly constrained. When conflict does occur, richer states will
attempt to maximize their economic and technological advantage; however, these may be
undermined or reduced by growing affordability of new generations of weapons and the
prevalence of mass effect options. Conflict itself is likely to take place in new
environments: cyberspace, the high seas, near space, and increasingly, in expanding
cities. Sprawling, rapidly and chaotically urbanized areas, especially in the developing
world, which lack basic infrastructure or municipal order, will provide havens in which
criminals, terrorists and insurgents will shelter and organize, and from which they will
launch operations. Nevertheless, they will also seek to colonize cities and other urban
centres in the developed world, notably through influence on, and infiltration of, existing
structures, backed up by the threat or use of societal violence.

Blurring of Military/Non Military Boundaries â&#x20AC;&#x201C; A Northern Alliance Fighter in
Afghanistan 22nd November 2001 - Source: Empics.com
A further complicating factor will be the increasingly hazy relationship between military
and non-military aspects of conflict. Civilians will carry out a wide range of activities

70

hitherto undertaken by military personnel as more comprehensive approaches are
adopted. The clear distinction between combatants and non-combatants will be
increasingly difficult to discern. Military personnel will also find themselves employed
more often in essentially non-military roles, owing to their readiness profile, training and
capacity for organized action, often as the first response to natural disasters, unexpected
flash events and other serious civil contingencies. They may be deployed in those
circumstances where the normal law enforcement agencies cannot cope, as seen recently
in New Orleans and Bandar Aceh, or where opponents use capabilities that can only be
countered by military levels of force. Indeed, increasingly, regular military forces will
deploy in environments where armed irregular forces, for example armed followings,
gangs, bandits, semi-official militias, Private Military Companies (PMCs), terrorists and
insurgents, are operating, often as adversaries, but sometimes as neutrals or even as
partners.
Therefore, while war itself will remain essentially violent, adversarial and characterized by
the use of force in pursuit of political ends, the uncertainty of the future strategic context
and the breadth of challenges to which appropriate responses require a military
contribution, will frequently result in armed forces being deployed in actions of a more
constabulary or settled nature, but with the potential for periodic or escalating violence;
these will include Peace Support Operations and actions in response to humanitarian
crises. Separation in time and space between levels of military activity, strategic,
operational and tactical, and the environments within which they take place, physical and
virtual, will also become increasingly blurred as greater use is made of networks and
shared situational awareness. This will shape the character of military activity,
demanding increased discrimination and judgement about how to deal with situations as a
whole from military forces and from the political leaders who employ them. Crucially, this
level of sophistication will require a concerted, comprehensive application of all the
instruments and agencies of state power, together with cooperation from all relevant
authorities and organizations involved in settling a crisis or resolving a conflict.

Risks
â&#x20AC;˘

Democracy is not the only show in town. The progress of the world to universal
democratic ideals will be uneven, possibly uncertain, out to 2035, especially as
other superficially attractive and traditional models of government continue to
appeal, if only in the interests of continued stability. Indeed, the example of Iraq
has not been a good advertisement for rapid democratization and universal human
values. States which attempt to transition to democracy from autocratic or
oligarchic government are likely to be particularly vulnerable to instability. When
combined with other risk factors such as demography, environmental stress, a lack
of natural resources and a failure to deliver economic growth, this awkward
transition will increase the likelihood of enduring instability, disorder and conflict.

71

•

Persistent African Instability. Factors such as famine, environmental and
demographic stress, endemic poverty, widespread HIV/AIDS and other diseases
will endure in Africa, leading to a persistent risk of conflict in much of the
Continent. This will not only stifle regional economic growth, but may actually
reverse such development. The consequences, typically uncontrolled mass
migration, transnational organized crime and increasing diaspora populations, may
transmit risk beyond the region, particularly to Europe. Significant containment of
these consequences may be required, especially in the Mediterranean, if
Europeans in particular are to remain ‘masters of the clock’.

•

Arms Rivalry. Increasing strategic and possibly inter-bloc competition is likely as
a result of the emergence of major new powers. This may stimulate intensive
arms races, for example between China and the US, or between regional rivals
such as India and Pakistan, reducing resources available for peaceful economic
development. The increase in arms spending would probably extend beyond
immediate rivals to include their neighbours and partners, thus intensifying
regional tensions and increasing the chances of conflict.

•

Economic Downturn. A global economic downturn may reduce confidence in
international markets, reversing the effects of globalization. This may reduce or
destroy economic and financial interdependencies, fragmenting markets and
leading to more intense strategic competition and increasing the risks of tension
and conflict.

•

Unilateralism. Inertia in international decision-making or a near-monopoly in
strategic resources (by a bloc or a state) may lead a major power towards a
unilateralist posture. This may in turn cause a more widespread loss of
confidence in international institutions among the wider global community,
reducing international capacity for general cooperation and coordination of
response to crisis, while increasing the risks of confrontation and conflict. Those
states which judge that they have the power to act unilaterally will remain more
selective in their application of international law, including in armed conflict, while
some actors, if their interests demand, are likely to refuse to be bound by it at all.

•

Perverse Application of Technology. The development of technologies that have
hitherto been considered benign may be subverted for hostile use. For example,
biotechnology and genetic engineering may be combined to create ‘designer’
bio-weapons to target crops, livestock, or particular ethnic groups.

•

Nuclear Proliferation. Accelerating nuclear proliferation will create a more
complex and dangerous strategic environment, with the likely clustering of
nuclear-armed states in regions that have significant potential for instability or have
fears about foreign intervention. For example, North Korean, Pakistani and

72

potentially, Iranian nuclear weapon capability will increase significantly the risks of
conflict in Asia if a system of mutual deterrence does not emerge. In addition,
nuclear possession may lead to greater adventurism and irresponsible
conventional and irregular behaviour, to the point of brinkmanship and
misunderstanding. Finally, there is a possibility that neutron technologies may reemerge as potential deterrent and warfighting options.
•

Proliferation of CBRN Delivery Systems. The variety of potential CBRN delivery
systems will increase, to include delivery by advanced cruise missiles and
unmanned aerial vehicles. These may become available to well-resourced
terrorist groups and could be deployed from improvised land or sea platforms.

Defence and Security Implications
•

Plurality of Armed Actors. Armed forces in low-income states will operate
alongside, in competition with, and against, a variety of paramilitary groups and
armed criminal gangs. Sustaining a wealth of armed groups will place a
disproportionate burden on the poorest states. However, it is highly likely that
these actors – along with the home-grown variety - will find their way into settled
societies and urban centres of the developed world.

•

Defence Production. Defence production will continue to become increasingly
internationalized and most states will lack guaranteed access to the industrial
surge capacity that may be required during periods of rising tension. The
economic burden of Defence capability development is also likely to be
concentrated in a decreasing number of states, increasing the likelihood of niche
capability development and common cooperative solutions in some. This is likely
to extend beyond platforms to include consumables, munitions in particular, which
may be required for conflicts of even short duration. Some capacity for secure
access and re-supply will be required, if a state is not to be out-faced and
out-resourced by sub-state groups and organizations, which may compete on the
global market for the same items and with more immediate financial liquidity.

•

Complex Environments. The increasing complexity of future conflict
environments, including pervasive media and internet coverage, will pose a
challenge to armed forces which operate within them, demanding new tactics,
specialized equipment and heightened levels of discrimination. Military personnel
at all levels will require increased awareness of the legal implications of their
actions and sophisticated training led by objective, authoritative doctrine. The
variety and changing character of the environment may increase the training
requirement and perhaps broaden the range of skills required to generate
sufficiently agile and battle-winning forces.

73

•

Going Underground. All likely future opponents will have recognized the
advantages of going underground if they wish to avoid the surveillance, targeting
and penetrative capabilities of sophisticated military forces, particularly those
deploying air platforms and systems. In future, states will seek to site most of
their major nodes and the majority of their decisive fighting power underground or
among civilian infrastructure that it is illegal or unethical to target. Similarly,
irregular opponents will base themselves in underground networks, both for
offence and defence, especially in complex urban spaces.

•

AI. The progressive introduction of ‘soft’ AI and further simplification of the
Human Computer Interface (HCI) is likely to change the emphasis in training from
technical aspects of system operation to the application of judgement in the
employment of systems and the conduct of operations. This will stimulate a
cultural change with significant effects on the requirements for manpower,
command structures and training.

•

Technology and Fighting Power. Successful exploitation of new technology, such
as Directed Energy Weapons will depend on the users’ understanding of both the
advantages and the limitations to its application across physical, conceptual and
moral components of fighting power. Those who fail to do so are likely to risk
defeat by those who achieve a better component mix, by those who target
components to which technological advantage does not apply, or by those who
employ technologies such as Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to neutralize a more
sophisticated adversary’s capability. Small incremental changes in technology are
also likely to lead to disproportionally large increases in warfighting capability and
effectiveness. This is likely to lead to the reduction of transitional
concept-to-capability timescales and increase the scope for technology leakage
and more discriminating use of Off-The-Shelf (OTS) applications, especially in the
areas of nano- and bio- technology.

•

Cheaper, more Lethal Weapons. Future technological development and a
highly-competitive arms market are likely to result in weapons that are more
cheap, portable, destructive, widely available and easier to use. Their mass use is
likely to have a particularly unsettling effect in poorer, unstable regions where the
expense of more capable military equipment might previously have been
prohibitive. It will also allow less developed states and non-state actors to close
the technology gap with traditionally superior adversaries.

•

Deliberate Collateral Casualties. Both state and non-state actors may target
commercial and industrial installations to inflict mass casualties, in breach of
international law, as an intended primary or secondary effect. The potential impact
may be reinforced by increasing industrialization in developing countries, a

74

possible resurgence in nuclear power plant construction, and the progressive
concentration of populations in urban areas.
•

Nuclear Proliferation. An increase in the number of nuclear-armed states will
affect the ability of the world’s leading military powers to undertake intervention
operations. Operations that threaten the personal or regime security of autocratic
leaderships in nuclear-armed states will entail particular risk.

•

Failure of CBRN Armed States. There may be a need to be prepared to conduct
stabilization operations in failing or failed states or cities that possess significant
CBRN weapons material and expertise. Consideration will have to be given to
handling unstable, insecure and poorly maintained CBRN materials, securing the
facilities and limiting misuse and proliferation.

•

Human Nature of War Challenged by Technology. Increasing pervasiveness and
exploitation of technology at all levels of warfare will increase the distance
between ‘the point of the spear’ and the point of interaction for most personnel.
Such reliance on technology and unmanned, remote options is likely to lead to
increasing vulnerability to a resurgence in traditional, mass warfighting and
irregular activity. Ethical questions regarding the accountability for automated
actions are also likely to increase.

Potential Trend Variation
A loss of confidence in globalized markets, leading towards the revival of national
economics, is possible and may result in international rivalries that could increase the
risks of interstate warfare. Most significantly, this would simplify the context for military
activity, as military tasks would be defined increasingly in terms of unambiguous national
interest and definite threat assessments. Under these conditions, international security
and legal arrangements would tend towards bloc partnerships and bilateralism, reversing
the current trend towards multilateral security and legal frameworks. Defence spending
would probably increase as a proportion of national incomes (although economic
slowdown might limit real growth). However, reduced commercial demand and lower
levels of knowledge-sharing would probably slow the rate at which new technologies
would become available to the Military. A significant effect may be an acceleration in
CBRN acquisition programmes and, for developed countries, a revival of interest in
neutron and smarter nuclear technologies.
Conversely, an acceleration of the integration of international security arrangements
driven by globalization, is also possible and may reduce the risk of interstate warfare to
the point where it becomes negligible. Instead, the focus for national military activity may
shift more clearly than at present towards: international cooperation on reducing the risks
of societal conflict; responding to civil contingencies such as natural disasters and focused

75

interventions against discrete threats which, like terrorism, are relatively small-scale when
compared to interstate warfare. While the contexts for military activity would remain
complex, greater integration at the military operational level may lead to convergence
between the armed forces of different nations in their doctrine, organization and
equipment, extending and building upon the NATO model.

Hot Topic â&#x20AC;&#x201C; The Balance of Military Capability
Confronted with few direct threats and declining populations, most affluent societies will
attempt to minimize their Defence burden by investing in conflict prevention and, for as
long as it is in their interest to do so, participating in alliances, forming communities of
interest and contracting out security. The US will be the exception, making by far the
greatest commitment to Defence throughout the period, consistent with its economic
power and technological advantage.
China and Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Defence spending is likely to increase in proportion to their economic
growth and the range of their global interests and investments. After 2020, they are
likely to have developed 2-tier armed forces, consisting of CBRN weapons and large
relatively unsophisticated forces for territorial defence, and smaller higher-capability
forces for power projection. For middle-income states that are not part of an alliance,
military capabilities will typically be 10 years behind those of more affluent states.
Optimized for territorial defence, they will find it difficult to recruit the skilled personnel
required for the more complex military tasks of the future, but may wish, if they have a
demographic advantage or a traditionally hostile near neighbour, to retain high levels of
manpower for internal security, employment and national prestige.
Low-income states will continue to operate forces that, in principle, are organized along
conventional lines, but will probably bear a closer resemblance to the irregular armed
groupings operating locally within them. At times of heightened tension, both middle
and low income states are likely to rely on the mass-mobilization of large-scale reserve
or irregular forces which, while usually of doubtful military value, will add significantly to
operational complexity.

76

Strategic Shocks
Introduction
An analysis of trends and probable outcomes can only go so far in describing the future,
the unexpected also needs to be taken into account - shocks will happen. Our discussion
now outlines ways in which discontinuities may occur. This section makes no claim to be
a comprehensive list of all possible shocks, but does seek to demonstrate how the world
might develop in ways that are radically and intuitively different from outcomes derived
from linear analysis.

Mega-Volcanic or Seismic Event
A major volcanic eruption or earthquake, such as that in Indonesia in 535 AD, or even
Krakatoa in 1883, would have dramatic effects both regionally and globally. The violence
of the eruption, along with associated seismic activity, would cause extensive disruption,
damage and loss of life. The emission of vast quantities of ash and debris into the

77

atmosphere would be spread globally, blocking out sunlight with drastic consequences for
climate and agriculture worldwide. Owing to population growth, global inter-dependency
and intense habitation in areas that increasingly defy nature, the effects of any future
natural disaster are likely to have correspondingly greater impact.

Thermo-Haline Disturbance
Climate change could cause a reduction in North Atlantic salinity by increasing the melt
water and freshwater runoff from the Arctic. This could affect the natural circulation of the
North Atlantic by diminishing the warming effect of ocean currents on Western Europe.
The drop in temperature might exceed that of the miniature ice-age of the 17th â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 18th
centuries, driving up demand for energy for heating and closing some shipping routes in
winter, while lower summer rainfall could increase water stress and reduce crop yields.
However, this feature is likely to be offset by increases in temperature caused by climate
change and the associated global warming.

Global Pandemic
A new untreatable virus that spreads rapidly among human populations, causing serious
illness, would pose a significant threat to societies, which are both increasingly
concentrated in urban settlements and also connected by modern mass-transit systems.
Such an illness would be extremely difficult to contain and could have catastrophic
impacts beyond its immediate medical effects, possibly including the collapse of the highly
integrated global economy, with its complex networks of interdependent relationships.
Similar effects might be induced by the rapid spread of disease among livestock or crops.

Methane Catastrophe
Vast amounts of methane are stored as hydrates in the Arctic, in the terrestrial permafrost
and as clathrate lattices in the deeper, colder layers of the ocean. Rising temperatures
are currently releasing quantities of methane into the atmosphere; extreme conditions
could cause hydrates to become unstable, potentially resulting in the release of huge
quantities of methane, which is a significantly more powerful accelerant of climate change.
In these circumstances, which have happened before, the rate of warming could lead to a
runaway feedback cycle with extremely harmful, or at worst, catastrophic implications for
all life on earth. The onset of this shock could be abrupt, with massive release triggered
by seismic activity or simply by deep ocean mining.

Abrupt Climate Change
Abrupt climate change from a warm and wet environment to colder and drier conditions,
occurring within a decade or less, has occurred several times in the past 100,000 years
and even within historic memory, such as in the early 14th century in Europe. Evidence
from ice-cores indicates that the end of the last Ice Age, 12,000 years ago, which warmed

78

the planet by 5 degrees, occurred over one decade. The Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population has grown
exponentially in the last century and any future event of this type would have more
dramatic human consequences, resulting in societal collapse, mega-migration,
intensifying competition for much diminished resources and widespread conflict.

Resource
Globalized Economic Collapse
Globalization will result in critical interdependencies that will link members of a globalized
society that includes a small super-rich elite and a substantial underclass of slum and
subsistence dwellers, who will make up 20% of the world population in 2020. A severe
pricing shock, possibly caused by an energy spike or a series of harvest failures, could
trigger a domino effect involving the collapse of key international markets across a range
of sectors. The impacts of this collapse could be transmitted throughout the globalized
economy, possibly resulting in a breakdown of the international political system, as states
attempt to respond to domestic crises and the local effects of wider economic collapse.
Sophisticated societies that depend on complex, transnational networks for the supply of
basic human needs, such as food that cannot be provided indigenously, are likely to face
severe infrastructure failure, collapse of public services and societal conflict.

Revolution in the Supply of Energy
Investment in alternative sources of energy, particularly hydrogen power, offers the
possibility of an affordable, miniaturized, autonomous power source, especially as
advanced fuel cells could enable power to be stored for transport systems and other
remote platforms. A sudden and early breakthrough would reduce global dependence on
increasingly scarce fossil fuels and the unstable regions from which they are obtained,
significantly altering the geopolitical context of the early 21st century. Similar shocks
might arise from early breakthroughs in nuclear fusion and the exploitation of methanol
and ethanol.

Collapse of Fish Stocks
The largest single source of protein for human beings is fish. Most of the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s major
fisheries are being exploited beyond their sustainable yield and, with climate change, the
sea is becoming more acidic. A global collapse in fish stocks, resulting from over fishing
or climate change, would result in the economic collapse of coastal populations, social
instability and widespread hunger, as well as the loss of a significant source of carboncapture. South and East Asia, with higher than global average dependence on fish
protein, would be especially severely affected.

79

Africa Becomes a Failed Continent
Challenges, including climate change and HIV/AIDS, scarcity of food and water and
regional conflict could lead to Africa becoming a failed continent, where even large,
currently self-sustaining states become chaotic. Outside engagement and intervention
would effectively be limited to a small number of well-defended entry points and corridors,
which would provide access to raw materials essential to the global economy. Nations or
corporations wishing to trade with Africa would increasingly be required to provide security
for their nationals and the necessary support to sustain critical areas of access and
security

Social
New Humans
The application of advanced genetics could challenge current assumptions about human
nature and existence. Initially employed for medical purposes, breakthroughs in these
areas could be put to ethically questionable uses, such as the super-enhancement of
human attributes, including physical strength and sensory perception. Extreme variation
in attributes could arise between individuals, or where enhancement becomes a matter of
fashion, between societies, creating additional reasons for conflict.

Youth Reaction
Declining youth populations in Western societies could become increasingly dissatisfied
with their economically burdensome ‘baby-boomer’ elders, among whom much of
societies’ wealth would be concentrated. Resentful at a generation whose values appear
to be out of step with tightening resource constraints, the young might seek a return to an
order provided by more conservative values and structures. This could lead to a civic
renaissance, with strict penalties for those failing to fulfil their social obligations. It might
also open the way to policies which permit euthanasia as a means to reduce the burden of
care for the elderly.

Genetic Treatments to Prevent the Effects of Ageing
Developments in genetics might allow treatment of the symptoms of ageing and this would
result in greatly increased life expectancy for those who could afford it. The divide
between those that could afford to ‘buy longevity’ and those that could not, could
aggravate perceived global inequality. Dictatorial or despotic rulers could potentially also
‘buy longevity’, prolonging their regimes and international security risks.

80

The Middle Class Proletariat
The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the role envisaged for the
proletariat by Marx. The globalization of labour markets and reducing levels of national
welfare provision and employment could reduce peoples’ attachment to particular states.
The growing gap between themselves and a small number of highly visible super-rich
individuals might fuel disillusion with meritocracy, while the growing urban under-classes
are likely to pose an increasing threat to social order and stability, as the burden of
acquired debt and the failure of pension provision begins to bite. Faced by these twin
challenges, the world’s middle-classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources
and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest.

Terrorist Coalition of the Willing
Islamist terrorism is likely to remain the most obvious manifestation of the international
terrorist threat until at least 2020. However, changes in the strategic context could cause
this threat to evolve in unusual ways. A generational change among leading Islamist
terrorists could lead to a more broadly based coalition of opposition to the cultural invasion
caused by globalization and modernization. A terrorist coalition, including a wide range of
reactionary and revolutionary rejectionists, such as ultra-nationalists, religious groupings
and even extreme environmentalists, might conduct a global campaign of greater
intensity.

Political
Chinese Collapse
China’s economic growth will be accompanied by significant demographic changes,
including the urbanization of its population, which uniquely among developing countries, is
ageing. These factors, together with changing patterns of land use, the failure to deliver
per capita prosperity and environmental stresses caused by climate change and pollution,
could reduce China’s traditional resilience to natural disaster. A future large-scale
disaster might therefore cause China’s progress towards strategic power status to stall
and might even result in it becoming a failed state, prone to civil conflict and separatism.

Micro Government
Governments are likely to demand increased self-reliance from citizens, who will in turn
expect their obligations to be reduced in proportion, possibly focusing government on its
core roles of Defence, Justice and Legislation. The operation of globalized markets and
communications might further weaken levels of identity between the citizen and state to a
point where increasingly footloose and apolitical populations see the latter purely as the
guarantor of an area of jurisdiction, the guardian of a body of law and a force of last resort.

81

Cities Challenge States
Successful, internationally networked cities, as engines of economic development and
opportunity, could increasingly assert their independence and new found status in contrast
to their backward, less developed and burdensome hinterlands. The formation of new
city-states would challenge the major assumption that underpins the current international
system - the sovereignty and integrity of the nation-state. Recognition of city-states’
sovereignty could cause wider secession and new alignments, leading to uncertain
diplomacy and a heightening of international instability.

Separatism and Secession in the US
A growing Hispanic population in the US might lead to increasing social tensions, possibly
resulting in an aggressive separatist movement. Unlike the Black Power militants of the
1960s, this movement might focus on geographically-based self-determination as its aim,
threatening secession by Hispanic-majority states. Confronted by this threat, the US
might become increasingly introspective, withdrawing from all non-essential overseas
commitments. In the wider world, other states and non-state actors could take advantage
of the US withdrawal or break-up, using violence to pursue objectives that, otherwise,
might have provoked a US military response.

Science and Technology
Decline in Ethical Constraints
A more permissive R&D environment could accelerate the decline of ethical constraints
and restraints. The speed of technological and cultural change could overwhelm society’s
ability to absorb the ethical implications and to develop and apply national and
international regulatory and legal controls. Such a regulatory vacuum would be
reinforcing as states and commercial organizations race to develop and exploit economic,
political and military advantage. The nearest approximation to an ethical framework could
become a form of secular utilitarianism, in an otherwise amoral scientific culture.

Electromagnetic Pulse Use
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) capabilities will probably become operational during the
period out to 2035. It could be used to destroy all ICT devices over selected areas, while
limiting wider physical and human damage. While military and other high-value networks
may be hardened against this threat, most networks and communities on which societies
depend, will not. The employment of an EMP weapon against a ‘World-City’ (for example,
an international business-service hub) would have significant impact beyond the country
against which it was targeted. It might even reduce political and business confidence in
globalized economic processes to the point that concern about national economic

82

resilience reverses internationally integrative trends, leading to a world increasingly
characterized by protection, control and isolationism.

Broadcast to the Brain – Dissected Human Brain at the Museum of Neuroanatomy,
University of Buffalo NY – Source: Empics.com

Broadcasts to the Brain
By 2035, an implantable information chip could be developed and wired directly to the
user’s brain. Information and entertainment choices would be accessible through
cognition and might include synthetic sensory perception beamed direct to the user’s
senses. Wider related ICT developments might include the invention of synthetic
telepathy, including mind-to-mind or telepathic dialogue. This type of development would
have obvious military and security, as well as control, legal and ethical, implications.

Catastrophic Space System Damage
At the most serious level, space systems could be destroyed or disabled by a burst of
solar energy or a natural fluctuation. Similarly, satellites and space platforms could be
destroyed or damaged in a deliberate hostile attack, or by being struck by space-debris,
causing a cascade of collateral damage to other space-based platforms. The damage
could be amplified if an element of the chain explodes and emits an electromagnetic
pulse. The consequences might include catastrophic failures of critical space-enabled

83

utilities, triggering widespread mass-transport accidents, multiple military and public
service system failures and the collapse of international financial systems.

Doomsday Scenario
Many of the concerns over the development of new technologies lie in their safety,
including the potential for disastrous outcomes, planned and unplanned. For example, it
is argued that nanotechnology could have detrimental impacts on the environment,
genetic modification could spiral out of control and that AI could be superior to that of
humans, but without the restraining effect of human social conditioning. Various
doomsday scenarios arising in relation to these and other areas of development present
the possibility of catastrophic impacts, ultimately including the end of the world, or at least
of humanity.

Military
Globalized Inter-Communal Conflict
Economic globalization and indiscriminate migration may lead to levels of international
integration that effectively bring interstate warfare to an end; however, it will also result in
communities of interest at every level of society that transcend national boundaries and
could resort to the use of violence. Operating within a globalized system, states might not
be willing or able to regulate these groups’ activities, concentrating on containing the risk
and diverting their activities elsewhere according to their interests. In addition, rivalries
between interest groups that cannot gain economic and information leverage might
increasingly resort to violence and coercion, evolving loose arrangements and networks
similar to those currently used by criminal organizations.

Chinese Power Projection
Vigorous economic growth and investment in key technologies might enable China to
generate a global power projection capability before 2025. Although unlikely to match the
US force-on-force in the medium term, China would nevertheless be able to deploy a
significant military presence wherever its interests were considered to lie. This aspect will
become increasingly evident as it seeks to safeguard stability and growth through control
of commodity and energy pricing and continued access to markets. China’s ability to ‘pop
up’ with increasing frequency in areas of competing interests would present the US and
others with significant strategic dilemmas, increasing the possibilities of confrontation and
crisis, possibly leading to conflict.

84

Legal Complexity
The legal context for future conflict could become too complex for participants to be
confident of compliance with international law and national responsibilities. The risk of
subsequent legal challenges might be perceived to be too great by most states, inhibiting
their willingness to engage in any conflict that did not involve a direct threat to their own
national security or stability. This would have a significant impact on the international
availability of forces for Peace Support Operations and other discretionary enterprises,
leaving the field open to private or irregular forces and to those less concerned by the
ethical or legal implications of their conduct.

â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;Magic Bulletâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;
In a globalized environment, military technologies will be developed at an accelerating
pace, some of which might have the potential to render established capabilities obsolete.
For example, a cheap, simple-to-make and easy-to-use weapon might be invented that is
effective against a wide range of targets and against which established countermeasures
are ineffective. Based on civilian developments, which have become widely available this
could flood the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s arms markets, from the OECD nations to the bazaars of Africa and
Asia, altering perceptions about the use of force and power balances.

Explicit Use of CBRN Weapons and Devices
The use of CBRN weapons, as a regular, if sporadic, feature of the strategic landscape
both by states and irregular groups would transform the basis on which military power is
organised and deployed. Depending on the extent and impact of this shift, new attitudes
to deterrence, containment and coercion would be required, together with a change to
vulnerability-based, rather than threat-based assessments and resourcing.

Development of Neutron Weapons
The political purpose most commonly envisaged for nuclear weapons has been to deter
nuclear attack by, or to offset the conventional superiority of, a potential adversary.
Future concerns will centre on the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists
and other irregular entities, for coercive purposes or to inflict massive casualties. In
addition, existing assumptions about the employment of nuclear weapons may be
challenged in still more radical ways, including the exploration of neutron possibilities.
The ability to inflict organic destruction, while leaving infrastructure intact, might make it a
weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing in an increasingly populated world.
Alternatively, it might be considered as a basis for a new era of deterrence both in
outfacing irresponsible nuclear powers and in opposing demographically strong nations.

85

Non-Western Perspectives
Background
Feedback from previous versions of Strategic Trends indicated a requirement to canvass
perspectives from wider viewpoints. As a result, DCDC commissioned an extensive, webbased survey of principally non-Western views, through the agency of LEAD
International, a non-profit organization with a global network of opinion-formers and
leaders in business, government, the media, NGOs and the academic sector. Two
hundred and eighty six members of the LEAD network from 5 regions responded to the
survey and assessed levels of agreement with DCDC’s Key Theme judgements. We also
wanted to obtain additional insights to inform Strategic Trends more widely, including
views on the prospects for improvement in a number of key areas of life, for example,
wealth, governance and conflict.

Levels of Agreement
There was general agreement with the judgements associated with DCDC’s Key
Themes, with most respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing, with each of the Key
Theme Outcomes. Agreement was highest with Key Theme 1, Population and
Resources. Key Theme 2, Identity and Interest, while scoring lowest, still scored strongly.
Similarly, there were high levels of agreement that DCDC’s assessment was neither too
optimistic, nor too pessimistic (76%). There was some variation in the responses from
different regions, particularly on Population and Resources, especially between African
and European responses, with greater agreement with DCDC’s judgements from the
former than the latter (86% and 63% respectively).

Wider Insights
One issue, the growing disparity between haves and have-nots, was raised in
observations across different parts of the survey by a large number of respondents. The
strength of opinion on this issue has reinforced DCDC’s original decision to include
Global Inequality as one of the Strategic Trends Ring Road issues, rather than dealing
with it simply as it arises across the different sections of Strategic Trends. At a more
detailed level, a number of respondents highlighted the need to give greater emphasis to
the outcomes of adaptation as a response to climate change, while others highlighted
the continuing significance of religion, in contrast to the wider trend towards
secularization. These and other issues have been given greater emphasis as they arise
in the Strategic Trends Dimensions.

86

Global Prospects
The final section of the survey invited consideration of whether the Key Themes and their
drivers might shape the world over the next 30 years for better or worse, using key
indicators such as health, education, crime and conflict. Overall, most respondents
judged that the world would be better or, at least, no worse in future than it is today.
The greatest prospects for improvement were judged to be in access to information, with
definite improvements in health and education; however, there was greater ambivalence
about improvements in governance and wealth. Most respondents believed that crime
and conflict would be worse. Overall, the balance of responses on Global Prospects
accords closely with that provided by the DCDC in Strategic Trends.

Levels of Agreement With Key Themes and Judgements

1%

1%
5%

6%

1%
4%

13%

5%
16%

14%

27%

52%
58%
29%

1-Population &
Resources
Strongly
Agree

9%

2-Identity &
Interest
Agree

56%

65%
16%

22%

3-Governance & 4-knowledge &
Order
Information
Ambivalent

87

Disagree

Strongly
Disagree

Examples of Reasons given for Agreement/Disagreement
KEY THEME

STRONGLY
AGREE/AGREE

DISAGREE/AMBIVALENT

1. Population & Resources

Conflicts will arise over uneven
resource distribution and access.

Oversimplifies – representing
developing areas as the source
of threat.

2. Identity & Interest

The quest for opportunities and
their attainment will be the
yardsticks for identity.

The poor will tend to maintain
collective identities; the rich will
become more individualistic.

International cooperation will be
required, but not all governments
will submit to international rules.