Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them). Polls are what they are you cant say one is right and one is wrong its just the data that was collected based on the questions asked.

Originally posted by BWTGrimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them). Polls are what they are you cant say one is right and one is wrong its just the data that was collected based on the questions asked.

They can poll whoever they want.

You somewhat answer your own question. Using your example. Say the poll says it's 50%-50% for the candidates. 50% decide not to vote. Guess what? It could be 100%-0% or (0%-100%).

The way the data is collected becomes very important to what the data becomes. And there are definite ways to skew the data if you want to. In this case, the closest numbers are going to be the people who are planning on voting. All being registered to vote means is that you *could* vote. For those in states which allow to you to register at the polls what difference is that from those that aren't registered?

Personally polling bugs me. It feels like Vegas and the oddsmakers. I guess if you're going to vote to say that you voted for the winner, it's your perogative, but other than that what difference should it make?

Originally posted by BWTGrimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).

Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.

And, Kerry has another two debates to make himself look like a flip flopping, stuck up, no plan having, non leader.

Just like he did in the first?

Pretty much...

Eh. Come on guys, I know we're all partisan here, but seriously, even the after-debate polls were saying that a majority of people saw Kerry as the more "presidential" (subjective term) of the two, the most in command of the facts, more poised etc.

Bush TRIED to paint Kerry as a flip-flopper, as we saw by his repeated (and I do mean REPEATED) charge that Kerry "changes positions", and sends "mixed messages". He just didn't have much to back it up with other than Kerry's changing positions on the Iraq war, which, judging by the mess that's been created over there, isn't entirely bad. Being flexible is a key to being an effective president IMHO. And we're seeing the dems hit that point home recently, with new attack lines suggesting that Bush's rigid, ideological and unwavering convictions are unsuited to fighting a guerilla war in Iraq, where the situation on the ground is constantly changing and thus requires a multitude of tactics to deal with it.

Originally posted by BWTGrimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).

Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.

Not for nothing, but if you're willing to sit through 10 minutes of boring questions that impact the country, and not you directly, without pay or any compensation, odds are you'll make a point of going to vote.

Originally posted by MalarkyEh. Come on guys, I know we're all partisan here, but seriously, even the after-debate polls were saying that a majority of people saw Kerry as the more "presidential" (subjective term) of the two, the most in command of the facts, more poised etc.

There's a bunch of internals out there to look at. Check out RealClearPolitics.com... they've got all this stuff. Posted today, from the latest Pew poll:

Originally posted by RCPPlease tell me what one word best describes your impression of George Bush/John Kerry in the debate.

Originally posted by BWTGrimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).

Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.

That assumes that there is nothing different about this election than any of the last three elections. You've got to throw that out the window when there is a war on. Polarizing events have to bring out more of the non-participants, don't they?

This is our first presidential election where the following issues are present:

1) INDUCE copyright act2) Patriot Act3) 9/114) War in Iraq

Do you really feel like none of these issues might bring out a registered voter who didn't vote before?

Also, your methodology rules out youth voting. Wouldn't 18-24 year olds be ineligable for the last 3 general elections? I'm not sure what the general election cycle is.

Willful ignorance of science is not commendable. Refusing to learn the difference between a credible source and a shill is criminally stupid.

Guru, I can't dispute any of that. They all could affect turnout, the results, etc. They could bring lots of people to the polls for the first time(though I really doubt INDUCE is going to do the trick for a lot of people, even if it is a bad thing).

However, as far as statistical reliability goes, they would not be included in a poll that would legitimately be described as an accurate assessment. A poll of registered voter is just not statistically reliable because we don't know if those people are actually going to vote or not. Likely voters are the people who are statistically reliable to show up on election day, regardless of circumstances.

From the people who brought you "This Land..." the fine folks at JibJab have brought you another Bush vs. Kerry Shockwave cartoon. It's called "It's Good to Be in D.C."...available on their home page. WARNING: