NFL Betting Tips

Our next section of the guide will go over some NFL betting tips that
I personally use and recommend to all serious handicappers. Now
certainly these aren’t the only tips you should follow and by no means
do you have to pursue all of them to be successful.

These
are the NFL betting tips that make up my core philosophy to wagering on
the National Football League. I truly believe you should have some
“set in stone” principles written down that you can always go back and
review.

Again, I know I sound like a broken record here, but if
you want to be successful at betting on the NFL then you need to take
some time and develop a philosophy that you will always follow.
Obviously, there will always be changes, but you want to have some kind
of starting point as opposed to just throwing darts.

Like I said
though, these are just some of the NFL betting tips that I use in my
everyday handicapping. It’s up to you to put in the time and create
your own so you have the groundwork for a sound NFL betting strategy.
Let’s take a look.

Do Not Chase Your Losses Or Bet Everything On One Game To Try And Bail Yourself Out

This
is without a doubt the biggest reason why so many people go broke and
get into trouble when gambling. As boring as it sounds, betting on the
NFL (or any sport) is a long term investment and you’re going to have
losing streaks.

There’s just no way around it. As long you have a sound handicapping system in place or are following a proven handicapper, there’s no need to go astray from your money management plan. You’re going to have losing streaks. What separates the professional handicappers from the squares is how you handle those losing streaks.

The
pro’s stick to their plan because the tide will always turn. They
never EVER try to bail them self out of a hole on one game. This is the
absolute stupidest thing you can do. I’ll say it again: stick to your money management plan and NEVER CHASE YOUR LOSSES.

Passing On A Game Is Not The End Of The World

So
many people think they have to bet on every game because they need the
action. Well, this is another one of those NFL betting tips in the
“what not to do” category (unless you want to lose your bankroll really
fast).

Yes, you may end up winning some that you passed on, but I
can guarantee you’ll end up losing more in the long run. If a game
doesn’t fit all of your criterion then move on and handicap the next.
Being able to pass on a game (I know you’ve heard me say it before) is
what separates the pro’s from the amateurs.

Bet Early In The Week

Talk
to any professional handicapper and they’ll tell you the softest lines
are the first ones released by the sportsbook (which is why there are
smaller limits). The sharpest bets are the ones made on the opening
lines, which typically come out on Sunday afternoon when the current
weeks games are being played.

You can find great value in these
lines, but they get adjusted quickly. Any mistake you find according to
your data must be acted upon immediately to take advantage of +EV.

Granted,
most people aren’t thinking about next weeks games while the current
ones are being played, but if you want to become one of the few that
actually win at NFL betting, then you have to take advantage of every
opportunity…and this means jumping on early soft lines.

Bet Early In The Season (and even before the season)

While
this is somewhat similar to our previous tip, this is one of those NFL
betting tips you won’t hear from the “so called betting experts.”
Tremendous value (+EV) can be found by betting games earlier in the
year.

Heck, opening lines for the first week are released weeks
before those actual games are played. If you’ve done your research (and
it’s solid) then you have to take advantage of +EV because it won’t be
there forever.

Lines are even listed for select games throughout
the year before the season starts as well. Again, if you’ve done your
homework, then you can find tremendous opportunities.

This is definitely one of the best NFL betting tips you’ll ever get: Lines are much softer earlier in the season, so this is when the majority of your biggest wagers should be made.

Don’t Make It To Complicated

This
is where a lot of handicappers get burnt out and start making mistakes.
Plain and simple: don’t make it more complicated than it has to be.
Granted, you do need to spend some time studying the games but don’t go
overboard.

As you’ve probably heard before, use the KISS method
(Keep It Simple Stupid). Analysis by paralysis won’t get you anywhere.
Stick to your NFL betting philosophy and just don’t make it harder than
it needs to be. Remember, watching and gambling on the NFL should be
enjoyable…at least most of the time.

Don’t Listen To Your Friends Or Anyone On TV For That Matter (go against them if anything)

Trust
me, this is one of those NFL betting tips that will save you and make
you a lot of money over time. Your friends and the so called “NFL
experts” on ESPN and the pregame shows aren’t professional handicappers.

They
may seem like they know a lot, but ask anyone that’s “in the know” and
they will tell you them same. You’re much better off going against what
they’re telling you to do. As you’ve read before on the site, they
don’t build those billion dollar casino’s out in Vegas because everybody
is making the right picks. Go against the public (most of the time)
and you’ll be a much more successful NFL bettor.

Don’t Bet On A Big Game Just Because It’s On TV

This
is along the same lines as another one of my NFL betting tips; passing
on a game is not the end of the world. If a game is on TV, you don’t
have to bet it.

If it doesn’t meet your handicapping criterion
then just sit back and study the game for the next time they play.
Discipline is very important when betting on the NFL. Know when to
exploit an advantage and know when to lay off.

Study the Stats

This
is one of those NFL betting tips that sounds so simple, but so many
people just don’t put in the time to do it. To be successful at
anything, you need to put in a little time and gambling on football is
no exception.

Study the teams and their stats on a weekly basis.
It’s not difficult and eventually you’ll have a great understanding of
how each team performs from week to week. Do this one thing and I
guarantee you’re win percentage will increase drastically.

Keep A Close Eye On Injuries

Whether it’s injuries or stats, we list some great sports betting research websites that you should bookmark (along with this too of course). Knowing who is injured or banged up (especially on the offensive line) will make a tremendous difference in how you handicap a game.

Knowing who is
injured may not make you a lot of money, but I can promise you it’ll
save you a lot of money. I’ll say it again, just put in the time.

Look For Underdogs Because There Is A Lot Of Parity In The NFL

One
of the best NFL betting tips I can give you is to really focus in on
teams getting points. Don’t be afraid to bet the underdog.

Public
perception is everything in the NFL and the oddsmakers know it. The
public loves betting on the favorite (and the over) and the sportsbooks
are more than happy to take there action. Most of the time the line
gets inflated (especially in a nationally televised game) and the
underdog is the right play a great deal of the time.

It’s usually
best to bet underdogs closer to game time because the public will be
betting the number up during the week. This allows you to get the best
line possible (although this won’t always be 100% accurate). There is a
lot of parity in the NFL and the underdog may not be the sexy pick, but
I can promise you there can be a ton of value by betting the dog.

On
a side note, this same exact tip can be applied to betting the under as
well. A lot of times value can be found in betting the under because
the public loves seeing points scored (especially in a big televised
game). Remember, you typically don’t want to be on the same side as the
public or the majority of bettors because they’re usually wrong.

Go With Undervalued Teams

Just
as I previously stated, value is what you want when it comes to
handicapping the NFL. For the most part this falls on the underdog, but
there can always be value with a favorite as well.

You want to try and find those games that the public is pounding and inflating the line. Value is when a team should realistically be getting 6 points but are actually getting 7.5. Studying lines and key numbers is crucial to handicapping the NFL.

There’s a great website called Sports Insights that I highly recommend to anyone that’s serious about betting on sports. They offer the kind of information and NFL betting tips we discuss here that can help you become a much more knowledgeable handicapper.

Don’t Be Afraid To Bet On An Underdog Straight Up

If
you’ve done your research on a game and feel that an underdog should
win straight up then don’t be afraid to bet the money line (especially
when they’re getting 2.5 points or less).

Underdogs win all the
time in the NFL, you just have to put in the time to know which ones
give you the best value. Don’t be afraid to bet a 6,7, or even 8 point
underdog at times. With the money line having better odds, you don’t
have to win nearly as many games to make a profit. Be confident in your
handicapping.

Always Check The Weather

Another
one of those NFL betting tips that seems so obvious. But you have no
idea how often the weather is overlooked. Just take the extra minute to
check the forecast before betting on a game. It’s just to important
and to easy to pass up.

Weather is especially important in
December when it starts getting cold. Games played at cold weather
stadiums in December (Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Denver,
Green Bay, New England, and Pittsburgh) can have a major impact on
offensive numbers, which can create excellent value for the under.

Since
we’re already talking about weather, another one of the great NFL
betting tips to pay attention to is when a non-playoff, non-cold weather
team is playing at a cold weather stadium. Typically, motivation is
very low, it’s freezing cold, could be bad weather, and they basically
have nothing to play for.

More importantly though, the cold
weather team is accustomed to the conditions, giving them a great
advantage. This is a great tip to look for when handicapping December
NFL games.

Watch The Games

I
know, I know, what the hell? There are so many people out there that
bet on an NFL team and have never even seen them play before. It cost a
little money, but I highly encourage you to get the NFL Sunday Ticket
on Direct TV.

You really do need to be able to watch and study the
games. This will give much more insight into how a team plays when
they’re winning or losing and what adjustments they make (or don’t
make). Again, I will guarantee you that every oddsmaker is watching the
games, so it’s very important that you do the same.

Bet On Teams That Consistently Make Adjustments And Play Better After Halftime

From
watching the games, you’ll be able to know which teams are good at
making adjustments throughout the game. In other words, you want to
find coaches and teams that are able to adapt and change.

Betting
on a team that can make those adjustments is one of those NFL betting
tips that will serve you for a long time to come. These are the teams
that will bring the money in over the length of a season.

Conclusion

Well,
there you have it. That rounds out some of my most important NFL
betting tips. Hopefully you picked up a few you haven’t seen before and
are able to implement them into your overall NFL betting philosophy.

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