Economic experiments have been advocated as an innovative research method to identify cause-and-effect relationships in social–ecological systems. In this short communication, we discuss the feasibility and practicality of introducing spatial and temporal dynamics into experiments with stakeholders in the field. We draw on our experience from an experiment conducted with 212 farmers in Indonesia. We find some potential of our approach to reduce artificiality and to enhance realism. Yet, this realism comes at the cost of a more complex data structure. Among other things, we discuss how our approach may be useful in multi-method research designs and as a tool for stakeholder communication.

A main challenge of ecosystem service (ES) governance is engagement with the multiple actors involved in the management of ecosystem services. This task is demanding because (1) Actor interests differ depending on whether they demand or supply ecosystem services, and (2) there are multiple and often contrary perceptions of ecosystem services. High hopes are placed on economic valuation to facilitate a mutual understanding on trade-offs in ecosystem service provision and to identify management solutions. However, critics point at the shortcomings of valuation methods, e.g. the neglect of future, social and incommensurable values. We evaluate the potential of stated preference methods (SP) methods for ecosystem service governance, particularly in addressing heterogeneous actors. Three purposes of SP valuation are illustrated: Project and policy appraisal, design of policy instruments, and awareness raising. Four theses on the contributions of SP analysis to ecosystem service governance are formulated: They (a) help igniting a societal debate on the importance of ecosystem services, (b) include non-market ecosystem services in decisions, (c) consider distributive effects of ES management, and (d) gain behavioural insights for policy design. Deliberative approaches circumvent some limitations of SP analysis and account for the heterogeneity of the multiple actors involved in ecosystem service governance.

We introduce a special issue that aims to simultaneously motivate interest in uncertainty assessment (UA) and reduce the barriers practitioners face in conducting it. The issue, “Demonstrating transparent, feasible, and useful uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services modeling,” responds to findings from a 2016 workshop of academics and practitioners that identified challenges and potential solutions to enhance the practice of uncertainty assessment in the ES community. Participants identified that one important gap was the lack of a compelling set of cases showing that UA can be feasibly conducted at varying levels of sophistication, and that such assessment can usefully inform decision-relevant modeling conclusions. This article orients the reader to the 11 other articles that comprise the special issue, and which span multiple methods and application domains, all with an explicit consideration of uncertainty. We highlight the value of UA demonstrated in the articles, including changing decisions, facilitating transparency, and clarifying the nature of evidence. We conclude by suggesting ways to promote further adoption of uncertainty analysis in ecosystem service assessments. These include: Easing the analytic workflows involved in UA while guarding against rote analyses, applying multiple models to the same problem, and learning about the conduct and value of UA from other disciplines.

This study assesses the differences in modelled total runoff and modelled runoff delivered to people between different rainfall and population datasets in the Ankeniheny Zhamena Corridor (CAZ) of Eastern Madagascar. Runoff is estimated using the WaterWorld hydrological model driven by six rainfall datasets, and population is derived from five population datasets. Model results for runoff under different rainfall datasets lead to variability in runoff (coefficient of variation) up to 99% for single months and 60% in the dry season. These differences are much larger than differences in estimated runoff between baseline and complete deforestation scenario for each rainfall dataset. Population estimates for the CAZ range from 1.2 to 2 million between the population datasets. Differences in runoff under different rainfall datasets lead to an average of 356,000 people estimated to receive 90% more runoff and nearly 750,000 people estimated to receive 50% more or less runoff relative to a baseline rainfall dataset. Therefore, the choice of rainfall data in hydrological ecosystem services modelling has a large influence on estimates of ecosystem service flows highlighting the need for modellers to justify their data choices and report on uncertainties in results, particularly in light of potential policy decisions based on modelled outcomes.

Integrated Environmental Models (IEMs) incorporating ecosystem services (ES) can be useful tools to support the decision-making. However, their successful application strongly depends upon the confidence decision-makers can place in their outputs. Uncertainty analysis (UA), including uncertainty location, identification, characterization, treatment and communication to decision-makers, can increase their confidence in the used model. To support the use of UA in practice we first focus on the purpose, concepts and methods underpinning UA in environmental modelling. As a main contribution, we then review existing UA frameworks and their coverage, before reviewing the current practice of performing UA for a set of 25 IEM tools. Based on our review we derive and discuss four perceived challenges and gaps whose significance may vary in different contexts: (1) the lack of consensus on terminologies for uncertainty locations; (2) characterization of uncertainty locations beyond variables; (3) treatment of heterogeneous uncertainty; and (4) the lack of a practical framework toward uncertainty communication. We suggest some steps forward for each of these challenges aiming at facilitating the application of UA to IEMs.

Blue and green infrastructure (BGI) provides a wide range of ecosystem services (ES) and other benefits when managing stormwater, beyond flow and pollution control. A number of tools have been developed to value these benefits. In the UK, stormwater measures that utilise BGI are known as Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS). This paper outlines the Benefits of SuDS Tool (B£ST), developed in the UK by the Construction Industry Research and Information Association (CIRIA) for valuing the benefits of BGI stormwater measures. The tool has been applied to case studies across Europe. B£ST includes a set of benefits based on ecosystem services applied to the use of BGI for stormwater management. The paper focuses on the uncertainties in this multiple benefit assessment, detailing the processes used in the tool. Examples illustrate the scale of the uncertainties in tools like B£ST. The uncertainties when using BGI valuation tools such as B£ST to help inform the delivery of stormwater measures are demonstrated in the paper as potentially of sufficient magnitude to warrant explicit consideration by professionals and decision makers.

Recent developments in machine learning have expanded data-driven modelling (DDM) capabilities, allowing artificial intelligence to infer the behaviour of a system by computing and exploiting correlations between observed variables within it. Machine learning algorithms may enable the use of increasingly available ‘big data’ and assist applying ecosystem service models across scales, analysing and predicting the flows of these services to disaggregated beneficiaries. We use the Weka and ARIES software to produce two examples of DDM: firewood use in South Africa and biodiversity value in Sicily, respectively. Our South African example demonstrates that DDM (64–91% accuracy) can identify the areas where firewood use is within the top quartile with comparable accuracy as conventional modelling techniques (54–77% accuracy). The Sicilian example highlights how DDM can be made more accessible to decision makers, who show both capacity and willingness to engage with uncertainty information. Uncertainty estimates, produced as part of the DDM process, allow decision makers to determine what level of uncertainty is acceptable to them and to use their own expertise for potentially contentious decisions. We conclude that DDM has a clear role to play when modelling ecosystem services, helping produce interdisciplinary models and holistic solutions to complex socio-ecological issues.

There is a strong relationship among cultural landscapes, socio-economy and the provision of ecosystem services. The goal of this paper is to study the relationships between socioeconomic changes and the generation of ecosystem services in cultural landscapes in Andalusia (Spain). In order to do that, a causal Object-Oriented Bayesian network (OOBN) approach was carried out. We proposed 3 socioeconomic scenarios: (i) no intervention (rural abandonment); (ii) rural intensification; and (iii) rural development (sustainability). We computed the relative change between the prior and posterior distribution of each variable considered in the model. We also computed the entropy of the ecosystem service variables (ESVs), as a measure of their uncertainty, before and after the introduction of socioeconomic changes. Afterwards, a statistical test was performed in order to find significant differences among the 3 scenarios, regarding the relative change of the state high of the ESVs. Moreover, a t-test was carried out to compare the uncertainty of the prior and posterior distributions of the ESVs. The results showed significant differences among the scenarios. OOBNs are a powerful tool to deal with complex socio-ecological systems. Moreover, the use of Bayesian networks provides a sound way of quantifying uncertainty in a transparent way.

Quantifying the demand for multiple ecosystem services is difficult because it is subjective and heterogeneous. Using land degradation as a case study, this paper explores land restoration finance as a proxy for global ecosystem service demand. Land degradation has been high on the UN agenda since the 1992 Rio Summit, together with climate change and biodiversity. The supply of many ecosystem services is declining due to land degradation and desertification, particularly in drylands. The inclusion of a Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) target in the United Nations (UN) 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development reaffirmed the commitment by the international community to tackle this global environmental challenge. If this vision adequately reflects society’s values, as expressed through demand for ecosystem services, we should see land restoration finance targeting areas where potential ecosystem service supply could be enhanced the most. To test this hypothesis, we used spatial analysis of key ecosystem services, as well as comparative analysis of synergistic values and other indicators of financial resources committed between 2008 and 2013 to address land degradation. These activities can generate multiple benefits for many ecosystem functions and services. Official activity-level environmental ratings – called Rio Markers – were used to identify those activities that were intended to produce multiple ecosystem services benefits in terms of land restoration, biodiversity protection and climate change mitigation. Our analysis concludes that many land restoration activities are synergistic and reveals other important aspects: (i) developing countries report, on average, higher synergistic values than developed countries and development finance organizations; (ii) donor countries report more conservatively than recipient countries; (iii) multi-purpose synergistic projects attract more funders than single-purpose ones. In some cases countries with high ecosystem service supply receive higher investment, but this finding is not strong, indicating that investment could be more strategically targeted. These findings suggest, in particular, that the synergistic features of multi-purpose land restoration activities could be harnessed to enhance investment effectiveness and impact. This, in turn, would make LDN finance more prominent in development aid portfolios and in public/private sustainable investment strategies.

Market-based conservation instruments, such as Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES), have become a dominant paradigm for environmental policies. Despite their broad endorsement, the implementation of PES schemes often rests on deep-seated power asymmetries and, therefore, risks reproducing existing inequalities. Thus, examination of PES should include how these schemes are constructed and negotiated between different actors, explicitly recognising their varying social positions, value frameworks and conflicting or collaborative relations. In this article we present a ‘PES simulation game’ as an alternative methodology to enhance understanding of complex negotiations between diverse actors involved in Ecosystem Services (ES) governance. The game mimics historical processes of agrarian change and social differentiation, simulates a range of ES governance interventions, and creates space for participants to collectively reflect on the motivational and socio-political dynamics triggered by the interventions. We discuss some of the main game dynamics as well as reflections generated by the game while examining a PES intervention in the Nicaraguan agricultural frontier. We illustrate the game’s potential for improving understanding of farmers’ constraints in decision-making processes and of the ways in which patron-client relationships within divergent value systems interact with specific ES governance interventions.

Landscapes are increasingly recognized for providing valuable cultural ecosystem services with numerous non-material benefits by serving as places of rest, relaxation, and inspiration that ultimately improve overall mental health and physical well-being. Maintaining and enhancing these valuable benefits through targeted management and conservation measures requires understanding the spatial and temporal determinants of perceived landscape values. Content contributed through mobile technologies and the web are emerging globally, providing a promising data source for localizing and assessing these landscape benefits. These georeferenced data offer rich in situ qualitative information through photos and comments that capture valued and special locations across large geographic areas. We present a novel method for mapping and modeling landscape values and perceptions that leverages viewshed analysis of georeferenced social media data. Using a high resolution LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) derived digital surface model, we are able to evaluate landscape characteristics associated with the visual-sensory qualities of outdoor recreationalists. Our results show the importance of historical monuments and attractions in addition to specific environmental features which are appreciated by the public. Evaluation of photo-image content highlights the opportunity of including temporally and spatially variable visual-sensory qualities in cultural ecosystem services (CES) evaluation like the sights, sounds and smells of wildlife and weather phenomena.

The relationship between cultural ecosystem services (CES) and the many diverse aspects of biodiversity is complex and multi-faceted. A large public survey in Wiltshire, UK, was used to assess associations between public benefits from certain species groups in the local countryside, and (i) social antecedents, (ii) engagement in different outdoor leisure activities (iii) indirect nature experience via media-related activities and (iv) species group charisma and abundance.Practitioners of leisure activities with a nature-related theme, whether outdoor activities or indoor media-related activities, reported significantly higher levels of benefit from named species groups, as did respondents whose personal background demonstrated an elevated degree of nature-relatedness. Benefits were also related to the charisma of the species group: enhanced benefit through nature-related activities and social factors was significant for less charismatic species, but inconclusive for more charismatic species. Respondents who participated in outdoor leisure activities without a nature focus were unlikely to report enhanced benefits from species groups in the local landscape.To maximise people’s CES benefits from broader aspects of biodiversity it may be necessary to encourage an active interest in biodiversity, leading people to participate or seek knowledge and understanding, and in turn develop a stronger sense of connectedness to nature.

Though the Ecosystem Service (ESS) approach is considered promising for integrated ecosystem management, its operationalisation is hampered by the lack of agreed evaluation instruments. To demonstrate the suitability of a structured ESS evaluation, we conducted a case study estimating the impact of the restoration of the Emscher River and its tributaries on the provision, use and benefit of ESS. The Emscher restoration is a large-scale project with immense temporal and financial efforts. To assess the values generated by this restoration, we applied an ESS evaluation framework and quantified the regulation and maintenance ESS ‘self-purification capacity’, ‘maintaining nursery populations and habitats’ and ‘flood protection’ as well as cultural ESS such as aesthetic, recreational, educational and existence values. Final ESS were monetized using economic methods, e.g. ‘damage costs avoided’, ‘contingent valuation’ and ‘benefit transfer’. We estimated a market value/direct economic impact of 21,441,572 € per year as a result of the restoration. Furthermore, a non-market value for people who care about the local environment of 109,121,217 € per year was determined, representing the benefit with ‘non-use value’ from the Emscher restoration. Our case study demonstrated the successful application of the structured evaluation framework in practice. Its implications and limitations are discussed.

Improving and conserving marine ecosystems to maintain and promote their sustainability and to enhance or protect biodiversity and ecosystems’ services and functions is clearly a necessity. The importance of biodiversity in supporting ecosystem services and functioning has been established; thus, the worldwide creation of marine protected areas (MPAs), the goals of which vary with location, design, management, and compliance enforcement has been increasing. This paper explores the opinions regarding the creation of MPAs in Italy, people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of marine biodiversity and ecosystem services, and maintenance of MPAs. The results indicate that most people would be willing to pay an entrance fee to MPAs, that is, depending of the valuation scenario proposed the mean WTP for a visit ranged from about €5 to €21 per person, and preferred environmental organizations as the most trustworthy organization type to manage the MPAs.