1. Don't settle: Boise State wants Nevada to shoot 3-pointers in this game. The more 3-pointers the Wolf Pack shoots, the merrier things are for Boise State. That's why the Broncos will almost exclusively play a zone against Nevada, which went just 6-of-25 from the 3-point line (24 percent) in a loss to Boise State earlier this season. The Wolf Pack can't fall in love with the 3-point shoot even though it will have some open looks. Nevada has capable long-range shooters, but it's not a good 3-point shooting team. The Wolf Pack has to probe the zone and look for higher percentage, close-range looks. Nevada can't be afraid of the 3-point shot, but if it chooses to live or die by the three, it's going to die.

2. Keep Marks, Drmic out of the lane: Boise State guards Derrick Marks and Anthony Drmic are both excellent at getting into the lane and making plays. Marks has a quick first step and Drmic, a good 3-pointer shooter, has that European craftiness to get to the basket. A.J. West, who struggled in the first game against Boise State, needs to protect the rim if Marks and Drmic are able to get past the first line of defense. Boise State's offense is predicated on dribble penetration, so getting into the lane is paramount. Zone isn't Nevada's preferred defense, but the scheme might be best against Boise State, which is a good 3-point shooting team but is hitting just 30.4 percent from three the last three games.

3. Slow down Watkins: Boise State senior Ryan Watkins has quietly become one of the Mountain West's best players. He's averaging 11.4 points, 10.7 rebounds and shooting 55.9 percent from the field. He notched a double-double against Nevada in January and leads the MWC in offensive rebounds per game (five per outing). He has a huge impact without having any plays run for him. Nevada's West needs to put a body on Watkins and be strong on the defensive glass. If Watkins is able to get some easy points off offensive rebounds, Nevada will be digging out of a deep hole.

THE X FACTOR

Deonte Burton

In the last two games against Boise State, the Wolf Pack point guard has averaged just 10 points on 3-of-17 shooting (17.6 percent). He needs to have a much better game against the Broncos for Nevada to win this one. In the matchup versus Boise State earlier this season, Burton was held to a season-low seven points, although he did have six assists and five rebounds. Boise State has used two tactics against Burton, either aggressively double-teaming off ball screens or playing a packed-in zone, daring Nevada to shoot the three. Both schemes are devised to limit Burton and make Nevada's other players beat them. While the role players need to step up, Burton also must have an above-average game.

* Chris Murray: Boise State 73, Nevada 65: This seems like a crazy notion, but the Wolf Pack could still finish third in the Mountain West. To get there, Nevada must win its final two games, starting with Boise State. This hasn't been a great matchup for the Wolf Pack lately, with the Broncos seemingly having an answer for Nevada's star Deonte Burton. To stay with Boise State, the Wolf Pack has to hit its 3-pointers and play sound perimeter defense. Nevada can keep this one tight, but I'm not ready to call for a Wolf Pack upset. Season record: 17-12

* Dan Hinxman: Boise State 72, Nevada 67: The Wolf Pack should come with its best effort, a la the first half of the New Mexico game Sunday at Lawlor Events Center, but this game comes down to one simple premise: The Broncos went with a tight zone defense against the Wolf Pack in their first meeting, and it worked as Nevada went 6-for-25 from 3-point range in a 74-65 Boise State victory at Lawlor on Jan. 14. Deonte Burton was held to seven points, the only game this season in which he didn't reach double digits. The Pack has to hit its 3-point shots to win this one, but the Broncos have been tough at home. Season record: 17-12