Top Auto Execs Tell Us What The Industry Will Look Like In 2030

It's an interesting time in the auto industry: Pressures of
climate change and stricter carbon emissions regulations are
pushing automakers to make more hybrid and electric vehicles,
along with better conventional engines and even fuel cell
powertrains.

The development of self-driving cars could fundamentally change
the industry, and concepts like the Toyota FV2 look nothing
like the cars we have today.

But things change slowly in an industry that needs about seven
years to go from the first sketch of a car to its arrival on the
market, that has been dominated by a single technology — the
internal combustion engine — for nearly a century, and that is
governed by countless regulations that differ from one country to
the next.

To get a picture of the future, we asked half a dozen top
industry executives for their predictions of what American roads
will look like in the year 2030.

Their answers varied, but a common theme emerged: It turns out
things won't change too much in the next 15-20 years, and the
biggest changes will most likely affect our cities.

"There will be alternative powertrains to a much greater degree
than today," Joe Eberhardt, president of Jaguar Land Rover North
America said. But electric vehicles probably won't be
predominant, largely because current engine technology is so
entrenched. "The internal combustion engine still has so many
advantages from an overall energy perspective, especially if you
look at how we produce electricity in the United States,"
Eberhardt said.

It's worth noting that Jaguar Land Rover doesn't produce any EVs.
Jose Munoz, executive vice president of Nissan, which does make
EVs, had a different take, saying, "we see in the future a
significant increase on electric vehicle technology." Nissan has
already increased production capacity to meet growing demand, he
said.

Jacob Harb, BMW North America's head of EV Operations and
Strategy, has good reason to be bullish on the rise of electric
driving (the
automaker just unveiled its all-electric i3). But he
cautioned that the status quo will be hard to displace: "Just
given how established the infrastructure is, it'll be hard to
change it," Harb said.

He did predict the growth of car-sharing programs and the
charging infrastructure needed to make owning an electric car
practical.The BMW i8 is a plug-in hybrid electric sports
car.BMW

Changing Cityscapes

City driving will change before highway driving, Ludwig Willisch,
president and CEO of BMW North America, told us. "We will have
more of these restrictions of driving with internal combustion
engines in city areas, whereas I think if you're making your way
through Death Valley, it will still be with an internal
combustion engine," he said.

Michael Bartsch, Vice President of Infiniti Americas, struck a
similar note, but in reference to self-driving vehicles, which he
predicted will "dominate" cities by 2025. "The U.S. highways
won't change much in 20 years time," he said. A drive from
Nashville to Atlanta, for example, will be pretty much the same
as it is today, he said, adding, "what I do expect is when I come
to New York, that you will see a very different automotive
landscape."

However, the "fundamental notion of personal, independent
transport will not go away," Bartsch said. "It's simply a
question of what is the definition of personal independent
transport."

And Jaguar Land Rover's Eberhardt pointed out that whatever
changes do or don't happen, it's a great time to be working in
cars. New powertrains, fresh designs, and self-driving
technologies are making "the auto industry cool again," he said.
They've brought back the "wow factor."