Senate map turned upside down

10/4/12 2:25 PM EDT

In the latest example of a Senate map that is defying the laws of political gravity, a new poll reports Republican Linda McMahon has a 1-point edge over Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy in Connecticut’s open Senate race.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday gives McMahon a 48 percent to 47 percent advantage over Murphy, marking the race as essentially a dead heat — an unexpected outcome for such a strongly Democratic state.

Yet Connecticut isn’t the only state where politics has been turned upside down and Senate seats that were once thought to be layups are in play deep into the election year.

Democrat Richard Carmona is within striking distance in Arizona. Democrats also have a fighting chance for the open Senate seat in conservative North Dakota — a state where Barack Obama is going to lose by a landslide. In GOP-leaning Indiana, another state the president will most likely lose, Republican Richard Mourdock is in danger of squandering a seat that should be safely Republican.

Then there’s reliably and strongly Democratic Massachusetts. In a presidential year when the GOP nominee is going to lose by a huge margin there — and against a Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Warren, who is both talented and cash-flush — GOP Sen. Scott Brown has managed to keep it close and could very well eke out a victory.

All of it points to a Senate election landscape that looks dramatically different than it did a year ago, and one where a surprising number of candidates on both sides might be able to fight through top-of-the-ticket drag in November.