Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on November 2. Solar wind
speed ranged between 469 and 624 km/sec.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 190.4. The planetary A
index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 19.0).
Three hour interval K indices: 34333443 (planetary), 35243542 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level. A new proton storm started after the X8 flare mentioned below, the above 10
MeV proton flux has so far peaked near the 1500 pfu level.

At midnight there were 5 spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar flare activity was high. A total of 5 C, 3 M and 1 X class
events was
recorded during the day.

Region 10486 decayed significantly losing penumbral area in the trailing and central sections. Further major flares
are possible as the region is still complex. Flares: C4.0 at 02:43, M1.0 at 07:53, C8 at
16:12, X8.3/2B at 17:25 UTC.
Region 10487 decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. Flare: C3.2 at 04:42 UTC.
Region 10488 decayed slightly in the trailing spot section while becoming more compact in the central and leading
sections. Another X class flare is possible. Flares: C3.4 at 09:00, M1.8 at 12:47, C5 at
14:39, M1.3 at 19:30 UTC. This region was the source of an X2.7/2B flare at 01:30 UTC on November 3.
Region 10495 decayed slightly in the trailing spot section and was quiet.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SEC:
[S296] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant on November 1. Location at midnight: S07E13.

Comment added at 10:20 UTC:Region 10488 produced its second X class flare of the day, an X3.9 event at 09:55 UTC. While it is possible for CMEs
originating from a source near the limbs to reach the Earth, it is not likely that the CMEs associated with today's major flares in region 10488 will have any
significant effects at Earth. Further major flares from this region will increase the likelihood of proton flares.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 2: A fast and large full halo CME was observed after the X8 flare in region 10486. The CME could reach
Earth late on November 3.

Coronal holes

No obvious coronal holes are currently approaching geoeffective positions.

Processed SOHO/EIT 284 image at 01:10 UTC on November 3. Image quality is degraded because of a proton storm. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active until late on November 3. Then another strong CME impact is
expected with active to major geomagnetic storming for about 24 hours after the impact.

Long distance low frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is very poor. Propagation along long distance north-south paths
is poor. [Trans
Atlantic propagation conditions are currently monitored every night on 1470 kHz. Dominant station: Radio Cristal del Uruguay].

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10486

2003.10.22

60

54

S17W62

2160

FKC

gamma-deltaarea was 1500
at midnight

10487

2003.10.25

15

10

N12W34

0080

DAO

10488

2003.10.27

23

19

N08W68

1600

FKC

beta-gamma-delta

10489

2003.10.27

3

S12W76

0050

CSO

spotless

10490

2003.10.27

S12W53

plage

10491

2003.10.27

2

S08W71

0030

AXX

plage

10494

emerged on
2003.10.29

S23W31

formerly region S295
plage

10495

2003.10.30

11

8

S22W21

0130

DSO

formerly region S293

10496

2003.10.31

S12W17

plage

S294

emerged on
2003.10.29

S09W07

plage

S296

emerged on
2003.11.01

1

S07E13

0010

AXX

Total spot count:

114

92

SSN:

174

142

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.09

175.8

109.6

94.6 (-4.1)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

90.5 (-4.1)

2002.11

168.7

95.5

85.2 (-5.3)

2002.12

157.2

80.8

82.0 (-3.2)

2003.01

144.0

79.7

80.9 (-1.1)

2003.02

124.5

46.0

78.5 (-2.4)

2003.03

131.4

61.1

74.1 (-4.4)

2003.04

126.4

60.0

(69.6 predicted, -4.5)

2003.05

115.7

55.2

(65.3 predicted, -4.3)

2003.06

129.3

77.4

(61.5 predicted, -3.8)

2003.07

127.7

85.0

(58.0 predicted, -3.5)

2003.08

122.1

72.7

(55.0 predicted, -3.0)

2003.09

112.2

48.8

(53.0 predicted, -2.0)

2003.10

151.7

119.3 (2)

(50.3 predicted, -2.7)

2003.11

200.4 (1)

15.0 (2)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.