BritSox wrote:Hang on though.... the Yanks' rotation for next year seems pretty set. RJ, Moose, Pavano and Wright will all be back, and I'd be inclined to think they'd be happy enough with Wang or Small, given this year's performance. Matsui only wants to play in NY, so they'll re-up with him. Giambi's resurgence sorts out 1B, leaving only 2B, CF and the bullpen as places to spend the cash recouped by getting Brown off the books. The 2b market is thin, so they'll probably stick with Cano as he's cheap and has upside.

Therefore.... unless they break the bank for Damon, the Yanks'll probably find some kind of stopgap CF (which would still, in all likelihood, upgrade them over this year- maybe Roberts?) and throw some cash at the BP. Only other alternative i can think of is to sign a big-name corner OF and play Matsui in center.

Cano's had a great last 10 games to rebound from a bad month and its clear that they're going to stick with him. 28 doubles in 112 games That may very well be one of the very best doubles/games ratios in baseball.

BP is the area you can expect them to try to spend money. I'd like to see Tom Gordon resigned even at his age, but I don't know what else is out there. They'll be looking for a lefty no doubt.

I'm not sure how he's doing in CF defensively yet, but it'll be interesting to see if they give Kevin Thompson a shot at it. He's tearing up AAA, bats leadoff, steals bags and has a great OBP. Alternatively, if he can't play Center, Matsui could with him playing Left.

As for the "go out a sign a big-name corner OF and move Matsui to Center" thought...problem is...who's the big-name FA corner OF? Nobody really.

I believe Torii Hunter is a FA next year, so its possible they may try to just fill the void for a year and wait for him.

So I really have to agree...I don't see NY being big spenders (on players other than their own) this year.

Giles is the only one who comes to mind... but i think the Yanks may actually have had thier fill of big name, declining guys in their mid 30s. Pretty much the entire bullpen bar Rivera walks, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like, i dunno, Ryan or Dotel ending up throwing in relief in the Bronx. There does seem to be a number of middling CFs that they could go after, if they'd accept one year with the upside of being a regular starter and slightly overpaid, before going for Hunter next year.

BritSox wrote:Giles is the only one who comes to mind... but i think the Yanks may actually have had thier fill of big name, declining guys in their mid 30s. Pretty much the entire bullpen bar Rivera walks, I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like, i dunno, Ryan or Dotel ending up throwing in relief in the Bronx. There does seem to be a number of middling CFs that they could go after, if they'd accept one year with the upside of being a regular starter and slightly overpaid, before going for Hunter next year.

I do agree about the bullpen haul over and I'd love to see Ryan in there, but as with Dotel I'm not sure they'd take setup jobs after closing. I really do hope they resign Gordon for whatever it takes, and they will pick up Sturtze's option because he's cheap and has been great at times but overall decent.

I really do think they'll go either in house with Thompson/Cabrera or with a servicable CF who plays good defense (they'll get someone regardless of whether they choose to try in house as insurance) and then wait for Hunter. Damon is just way too much money at his age (by the end of the contract), but you can expect they'll at least bid the price up for Boston.

Sultans of Squat wrote:I agree w/ you, especially since the Yanks won't be in the market for an aging, big name closer yet.

38.1 IP, 8ER (1.88 ERA), 35 of 37 (93.6%) in save situations.

Yep...Hoffman's done.

And technically, isn't everyone aging?

LOL! Believe what you will, but no aging pitcher is getting $250K/inning on the open market when the Yanks, Bosox, Dodgers *and* Tigers are not involved. BTW, I'm a Yankees fan and have my fair share of love/respect for Mo Rivera, but I'd have no qualms w/ poking fun at any other fan who thinks Rivera should get $10M/year on the open market under the same circumstances -- he might get it just because the Yanks would then be in the market, but he really should not from anyone else.

BTW, I'm assuming that we're talking multi-year contract, not a 1-year deal. If it's 1-year, then I can see someone else paying that much.

Who said anything about a multi-year deal?

Hoffman's agent has stated he wants to make his client the highest paid closer in baseball and it will happen; I do not doubt that. Someone will pay Hoffman the money to anchor down a bullpen.

You're seriously overvaluing him at this point. No one's going to pay him $10.6M (might have to be even more since I don't know what Rivera makes next year). Its just too much money in today's market.

Since you're so confident, you should have no problem making this a bet...

I'll make this a bet once you start posting in the Draft, Trade, and Keeper Questions Forum or in the Who to Start/Bench Forum or in the Analyze My Roster Forum.

If I'm overvaluing him, then whoever is making the $10.6 million currently as the highest paid closer is also overpaid seeing as his numbers aren't as good as Hoffman's 35 of 37.

I'm not overvaluing here; you're undervaluing him and have been this entire past season. I noticed you took the Rivera/Hoffman line out of your sig...could it be that Hoffman is out-performing Rivera as a closer again this season?

Hoffman made 9.6 million in 2003; it would be juvenile to dismiss him getting 10.6 this next season, especially with such a weak free agent market. Supply and demand is a fundamental key of the free agent signing period. I would not be surprised to see him get a contract similar to his '03 salary, along with a few incentives making the contract worth 2-3 million more.

As for the rest of the Padres free agents: Bye bye Hernandez (I like Olivo more, as is) and I expect the Padres to pay out for Giles.

now that's someone the yanks should go for if they know what's good for them: ramon hernandez. jorge is old and on the decline. hernandez will continue to improve and be one of the top-hitting C's in the game for years to come. now sure how much longer posada is contracted for, but splitting time between him and ramon for a year or two wouldn't be too bad if it meant the yanks got to hold on to hernandez for the long term.

blankman wrote:I really do think they'll go either in house with Thompson/Cabrera or with a servicable CF who plays good defense (they'll get someone regardless of whether they choose to try in house as insurance) and then wait for Hunter. Damon is just way too much money at his age (by the end of the contract), but you can expect they'll at least bid the price up for Boston.

I agree. The problem is that Damon will be looking for a 5 year deal. I think that the Yankees (specifically Cashman, if he is still the GM) are feeling burnt by old players at the tail end of the contracts. The only thing that they MAY do is inquire if the Marlins are going to take Pierre to arbitration. If not, then they may make a play for him.

BTW, looks like I am coming out on the wrond side of both of our bets.

I can't see Hoffy getting 10 million next season, but stranger things have happened. Mainly because the larger markets will not be in there to bid up his services. Second is, he will resign with San Diego and Kevin Towers can't afford to pay BOTH Giles and Hoffy for that kind of money.
I'd say they each are offered 24-25 million over three years max.

Yeah, I think getting Johnny would make the Yanks scarily good for the next year or two, but five years is too much. I think he's worth the 4/40 the sox will offer, maybe even 4/45, but anyone who goes significantly over that to take him off us would be making a mistake. I'm not sure we'll be able to compete next year without him, but the idea of paying him huge money way into his thirties doesn't appeal.

Sultans of Squat wrote:I agree w/ you, especially since the Yanks won't be in the market for an aging, big name closer yet.

38.1 IP, 8ER (1.88 ERA), 35 of 37 (93.6%) in save situations.

Yep...Hoffman's done.

And technically, isn't everyone aging?

LOL! Believe what you will, but no aging pitcher is getting $250K/inning on the open market when the Yanks, Bosox, Dodgers *and* Tigers are not involved. BTW, I'm a Yankees fan and have my fair share of love/respect for Mo Rivera, but I'd have no qualms w/ poking fun at any other fan who thinks Rivera should get $10M/year on the open market under the same circumstances -- he might get it just because the Yanks would then be in the market, but he really should not from anyone else.

BTW, I'm assuming that we're talking multi-year contract, not a 1-year deal. If it's 1-year, then I can see someone else paying that much.

Who said anything about a multi-year deal?

Hoffman's agent has stated he wants to make his client the highest paid closer in baseball and it will happen; I do not doubt that. Someone will pay Hoffman the money to anchor down a bullpen.

You're seriously overvaluing him at this point. No one's going to pay him $10.6M (might have to be even more since I don't know what Rivera makes next year). Its just too much money in today's market.

Since you're so confident, you should have no problem making this a bet...

I'll make this a bet once you start posting in the Draft, Trade, and Keeper Questions Forum or in the Who to Start/Bench Forum or in the Analyze My Roster Forum.

If I'm overvaluing him, then whoever is making the $10.6 million currently as the highest paid closer is also overpaid seeing as his numbers aren't as good as Hoffman's 35 of 37.

I'm not overvaluing here; you're undervaluing him and have been this entire past season. I noticed you took the Rivera/Hoffman line out of your sig...could it be that Hoffman is out-performing Rivera as a closer again this season?

Hoffman made 9.6 million in 2003; it would be juvenile to dismiss him getting 10.6 this next season, especially with such a weak free agent market. Supply and demand is a fundamental key of the free agent signing period. I would not be surprised to see him get a contract similar to his '03 salary, along with a few incentives making the contract worth 2-3 million more.

As for the rest of the Padres free agents: Bye bye Hernandez (I like Olivo more, as is) and I expect the Padres to pay out for Giles.

Perhaps I took it down to allow for better quality on my sig. Just a thought

Clearly you're scared you'll lose or you'd make the bet.

Here is my side: Hoffman will not become the highest paid closer in MLB this offseason.

You claim you're so sure about it, so otherwise you're a coward if you aren't willing to make a Cafe bet which isn't a very big deal in the first place.

BritSox wrote:Yeah, I think getting Johnny would make the Yanks scarily good for the next year or two, but five years is too much. I think he's worth the 4/40 the sox will offer, maybe even 4/45, but anyone who goes significantly over that to take him off us would be making a mistake. I'm not sure we'll be able to compete next year without him, but the idea of paying him huge money way into his thirties doesn't appeal.

I wouldn't even give him 4 years (which he wouldn't take anyway). This isn't a knock on his play, but I don't see the logic in paying him that much at the age of 36 (the tail of the contract), when speed is one of his biggest strengths. Many people forget that Bernie Williams is "only" 36 and look what's happened to him. He used to be a phenominal fielder winning 4 Gold Gloves despite a poor arm. Johnny Damon is a very similar mold with the same bad arm. Will the same happen to Damon? I don't know, but its not a risk I'd like to take.

For the first 2 years he's a great signing, but I think you have to look beyond that when the smarter play is to wait on Torii Hunter, who's a better fielder with a better arm when CF defense is the primary need of the team.