In many ways, sportswriters are in the business of making predictions. It’s rather easy to look back and explain a past event, but it’s another thing altogether to accurately predict what will occur in the future. Predictions are such an integral part of covering sports because they reflect knowledge; all other things equal, the writers who possess a comprehensive understanding of football are typically able to make astute predictions.

Earlier this year, I provided my analysis and grades for the majority of the Cowboys’ roster. In the coming weeks, I will use those insights to project players in 2013. In doing so, it will be vital to understand which stats and traits are most predictive of future success in the NFL. For example, in studying offensive linemen, I will actually use pressures to predict future sacks allowed because I’ve found them to be more predictive than any other stat (including past sacks).

Today, I’ll kick off this series by studying cornerback Morris Claiborne.

2012 Numbers

In my 2012 preseason predictions, I projected Claiborne for 60 tackles and four interceptions in his rookie year. Claiborne came up just short on the tackles with 55, but the first-year cornerback hauled in just one pick. Interceptions are a notoriously volatile stat—and thus hard to predict—but Claiborne still performed worse than I anticipated.

Still, Claiborne really wasn’t targeted all that much in 2012. On 499 snaps in coverage, Claiborne was thrown at only 69 times—once in just over seven pass plays. In comparison, Brandon Carr was targeted 87 times.

I think it’s important to study yards-per-snap when evaluating cornerbacks because the best players don’t get targeted often. Actually, the best cornerbacks frequently allow rather high completion rates because they’re thrown at only when the odds of a completion are high.

On his 69 targets, Claiborne allowed 48 completions (69.6 percent) for 571 yards (8.28 YPA). Those numbers are sub-par, but on a per-snap basis, Claiborne yielded 1.14 yards for each snap that he was in coverage. That’s a much better mark that would rank him 25th in the NFL.

What I Like

I like that Claiborne is a versatile cornerback. At 5-11, 189 pounds with sub-4.5 speed, Claiborne can play from both a press and off position. He’s going to be in a whole lot more zone coverage this year under Monte Kiffin, and I think he’ll handle it well. Claiborne is an instinctive player and, with his eyes on the quarterback in zone coverage, he should be able to make more plays.

What I Don’t Like

In Week 10 in Philadelphia, Claiborne committed five penalties. It was a total meltdown and, even though he bounced back nicely, it was unusual to see from a top 10 cornerback. He also needs to be more physical in the running game.

2013 Projection

Claiborne will likely be in coverage about as often as he was in 2012, i.e. around 500 snaps. The cornerback will be targeted more often because of the nature of the Cowboys’ new defense, so 85 targets isn’t an unreasonable expectation. If Claiborne improves upon his 2012 mark and allows only 1.05 yards per coverage snap, we’re looking at 525 yards allowed on 85 passes—6.18 yards per target. Such an improvement fits well with how other top 10 cornerbacks have progressed in the past.

Playing near the line of scrimmage on a more frequent basis, there’s a good chance that Claiborne’s tackles will increase; he should be good for 70. And while interceptions are the most difficult stat to project, I’m confident that Claiborne will see a sizeable jump. With more targets and plenty of zone coverage, look for the second-year cornerback to bring in five picks on the season.

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