NFL Picks

Swinging Johnson Looks Back at the 2014-15 NFL Betting Season & Shares What He Learned

Patriots were the crown jewel in our NFL picks this season by winning the Super Bowl but let’s review and see what went right, what went wrong and how we can improve capping the NFL odds next season.

Swinger's 2014 NFL Record (35-32-2 -12.95 units)
One look at my end of season record will tell you all you need to know. I capped the NFL odds at about a 52.3% clip which is nearly enough to overcome the 10% vig on a normal 11-10 wager. Not great by any stretch but enough to basically enjoy an entire season of football without paying your bookmaker. That’s not exactly the endgame here but it is the only consolation we can take away from a mercurial season that saw us rollercoaster our way to a Super Bowl cover as the Patriots intercepted a loss and turned it into a victory for them and cold hard cash for us. Indeed it was a five-unit maximum play that shaved almost a third off our deficit and evinced a 35-32-2 record on the NFL season.

So What Did We Learn?
One glance at our record will tell you that we should have been almost dead even in terms of units won or lost as the standard rule of thumb on a 11-10 wager is 52.4% to break even. That gives credence to those who espouse that every bet should be the same amount of units. No more or no less as one bet is as good as the next. Others would tell you that there are good bets and really good bets and the unit denomination should reflect that. I subscribe to the latter theory but my results would indicate that in my case, at least for this season, that my strong plays cashed percentage wise at a lower rate than my weaker plays. But why was that the case?

As I review my wagers throughout the 2014 NFL season I found that I was guilty violating the golden rule of Sports Betting 101. I refer to the unholy ghost known as the chase. It’s a bit humiliating for a seasoned gambler to admit he or she is vulnerable to such a rookie mistake but I stand guilty as charged. Looking back there were times where a bad beat the week before weakened my resolve to stay the course and prompted me to manufacture enthusiasm for a bet or series of bets in an individual NFL week in order to right the wrong that was done to me and all those who were negatively affected by a bad call, poor coaching decision or just plain old bad luck.

But the interesting aspect of all this is that my maximum five-unit plays hit at a surprisingly good clip. There were only a few instances where they did not pan out but it was in fact the four-unit plays that did me wrong. It was almost as though I knew these were not worthy of five-unit plays and probably more akin to a two or three unit wager but I upped the ante to get back what I had, in my mind, unjustly lost the prior week. Most of the plays I made this season were of the three unit variety and a few, like the Green Bay Packers +7 ½ in NFL odds over the Seahawks in the NFC Championship game, were a mere one unit. That of course cashed.

The Loshak Factor
If you listened to my weekly podcasts with Peter Loshak of SBR then you no doubt witnessed what I did and that was his eerily cogent ability to detect whether or not I was on the right side of a game or total based solely on my demeanor and the argument I put forth for each play I advised. There were often times when Loshak would hear me out and then declare that he was on the other side or even neutral on a game and that my argument had not persuaded him one iota. Those instances were far more often than not right on the money and led to money burners. However, when he detected a swagger in my voice and was compelled by my logic he would nail that as being a strong play. Again, those plays were dead nuts on and once again Loshak’s finger was right on the pulse. Loshak, for all his shenanigans, is one sharp cat.

So it was a forgettable and regrettable season as evidenced by the nearly 13 units we lost for the season. But I hope you had fun and enjoyed the musings of one singular voice in an ocean replete with handicappers and touts who boast unattainable winning percentages and are never wrong even when they are…so very often. We will learn from this season’s mistakes and vow to get better, stay smarter and not chase those bad beats because eventually we will win our fair share that had no business of covering. Good luck and God bless until next season.