Stuff

Today there was a new London poll from Opinium and a new Scottish poll from Survation. However with only two days to go before Thursday’s elections I thought I would take a broader look at all the polling so far for this week’s contests.

London

Four companies have produced polls for the London election this year: ComRes, YouGov, Opinium and Survation – their latest figures are below (Opinium publish their first round data without removing don’t knows, so I’ve repercentaged it to make it comparable to other polling). Note that while Opinium described their poll as their final poll for the election, the polls from the other companies are not necessarily the final ones: I’m expecting to see some eve-of-election polls tomorrow.

First round

.

Second Round

Pollster

Goldsmith

Khan

Pidgeon

Whittle

Berry

Others

Goldsmith

Khan

Opinium (26th Apr-1st May)

35

48

4

5

5

3

43

57

Survation (21st-25th Apr)

34

49

3

5

3

6

40

60

YouGov (15th-19th Apr)

32

48

5

7

6

2

40

60

ComRes (30th Mar-3rd Apr)

37

44

7

5

4

3

45

55

The recent polls have Sadiq Khan convincingly ahead – the three most recent polls have him just short of winning on the first round, and on the second round he wins comfortably with a lead of 14 to 20 points. The ComRes poll is a little closer, but is a month old now and still had Khan winning by ten points on the second round. Note that only one poll, Opinium’s final call, has been conducted since Labour’s anti-Semitism row. Khan himself has thoroughly distanced himself from Ken Livingstone, but there is always a risk of guilt by association. Opinium’s poll doesn’t suggest it has damaged him (in fact it had Khan extending his lead) and Khan’s lead looks unsurmountable anyway, but we’ll see what the final polls tomorrow show.

Scotland

A broader range of companies have produced polls in Scotland, with figures from six different companies so far. Once again, these are by no means the final polls from each company and I am expecting final eve-of-election polls from some companies tomorrow.

Constituency

.

Regional

Pollster

CON

LAB

LD

SNP

CON

LAB

LD

SNP

GRN

Survation (1st-2nd May)

19

21

7

49

20

19

6

44

7

Panelbase (23rd-28th Apr)

17

23

6

49

19

22

4

44

6

Ipsos MORI (18th-25th Apr)

18

19

6

51

19

17

7

45

10

TNS (1st-24th Apr)

17

22

7

52

18

22

5

45

8

BMG (11th-15th Apr)

16

21

6

53

16

20

6

46

7

YouGov (7th-11th Apr)

19

21

6

50

18

19

5

45

8

The SNP’s victory in Scotland is a foregone conclusion (hell, if they don’t win this would be the king of all polling errors). The more interesting question is who will come in second place – Scottish Labour’s stock has fallen so low they risk dropping behind the Scottish Conservatives. All recent polls now have Labour ahead of the Tories on the constituency vote, but several have the Conservatives ahead on the regional vote (and given that Labour will struggle to win constituency seats, the regional tally will likely have a greater impact on how many MSPs each party gets). Also keep an eye on the gap between the SNP’s constituency vote and regional vote – in 2007 and 2011 they were within a percentage point or two of each other, but the polls are suggesting the SNP will do between five and seven points worse on the regional vote, largely to the benefit of the Scottish Greens. This seems feasible enough (the Scottish Parliament’s electoral system means that if the SNP clean up on constituency seats they will struggle to win many list seats) but it will be interesting to see to what extent it is reflected in the actual results.

Wales

There is comparatively little polling in Wales and the only regular and recent figures are the YouGov polls for ITV Wales and Cardiff University (ably reported on by Roger Scully at his Elections in Wales blog). The most recent figures there are CON 19%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 21%, UKIP 15% for the constituency and CON 19%, LAB 29%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 22%, UKIP 15% in the regional vote. There will be a final YouGov Wales poll on ITV news tomorrow night.

Northern Ireland

Despite the name of this blog, it actually tends to be GB Polling Report most of the time – Northern Irish polls are even rarer than Welsh ones. We do have one though! Lucidtalk had a poll of Assembly voting intention figures in the Northern Irish edition of today’s Sun – topline figures are DUP 27%, SF 26%, UUP 16%, SDLP 12%, Alliance 8%, TUV 4%, GRN 3%.

Police and local elections

The other two elections on Thursday are local authority elections – mainly in those districts councils that elect by thirds, including metropolitan councils outside London (just over a third of the country will have local elections) – and Police and Crime Commissioner elections, which take place throughout England and Wales with the exceptions of London and Greater Manchester. Neither contest has any published polling.

132 Responses to “Polling on Thursday’s elections”

“Hmmm…I wonder if we can think of any ultra-right parties that might be anti-semitic.”
I’m sure there are some, but if you’re thinking of 1930s and 1940s Germany, the clue is in the full name of the ruling party – not right-wing.”

Just because they were called the Nationalist Socialist Party doesn’t mean they were left wing as you seem to be implying. Fascism is most certainly right wing

Not surprising there is no polling data for the Police and Crime Commissioner elections. The only publicity in my area (Hampshire) was a bit in the local paper this Saturday. I had to remind myself, when I got my postal ballot a couple of weeks ago, that all the electioneering statements were online, and I almost binned the ballot paper rather than doing my democratic duty, surfing the net and making a choice.

Last time the national turnout for these elections was 15%. Anyone want to suggest it will be more then 9% this time?

Many thanks for your thoughts. Essentially, you are pinpointing the potential for a stalking horse challenge to change the mood music around a leader. However, I would have thought that the antipathy/concerns of the PLP re: Corbyn are pretty widely understood.

In any event, ‘the stalking horses’ seem to have decided that it was sufficient to just flag it up, three days before the local elections. Presumably, they won’t want to rock the boat too much before the EUref.

This last Comres poll is interesting in that it shows UKIP slipping into fifth place and the Lib Dems and Greens tied for 3rd.

Of more relevance is the fact that Labour while growing by 4%, the non-major parties have grown from 15.8% to 25% in 2016.

I am therefore wondering if the high London “Remain” support I saw in the Opinium poll is driving voters away from both UKIP and the Conservatives, remembering that Boris was the Mayor and now supports “Leave”.

This shows that UKIP at 22% support in 2013 in local government elections, 18% in 2014 and 13% in 2015.

Further proportionate to the number of seats up for election, 9,321 in 2015, UKIP elected candidates in 206 council seats – a gain of 166 – but it is only 2% of the total up for election.

Labour, on the other hand, pre-Corbyn, lost 238 council seats. Liberal Dems 454 and Conservatives gained 348.

Significantly other parties, excluding the Greens, lost 167 seats. The Greens gained 6 seats, but unlike 2010 held their own in terms of re-electing 80 previous councillors.

So I will be watching to see if the bleed stops for the Lib Dems and whether Labour can reverse the losses they suffered in 2015.

If UKIP and the Greens end up with 2% and 1% of the seats respectively then it is status quo, with the lead possibly switching between Labour and Conservative as to who gains or loses the most seats.

If, on the other hand the Greens are on 4% in Wales, that means they have grown from 2.6% in the 2015 GE, though we are looking at two different voting systems FPTP and a semi-proportional one for the lists in Wales, Scotland and London and STV in Northern ireland.

According to the Parliamentary Report on 2015 GE results breakdown under FPTP:

In this instance it seems to me that the Mayoralty race, without high profile personality types running for office, is reverting to ideological type along traditional party lines.

The only difference is that the numbers between UKIP, Lib Dems and Green could be shifting, but historically the Greens get around 8% to 9% in EU and London Assembly elections so it may be status quo come Friday morning.

That BMG poll, plus a few others recently, suggests that the Opinium poll giving the Tories an 8% lead was a bit of a rogue.

UKIP seem to be edging towards 20% in a lot of the polls now. They could be in for a very, very good night tomorrow.

@Syzygy

“In any event, ‘the stalking horses’ seem to have decided that it was sufficient to just flag it up, three days before the local elections. Presumably, they won’t want to rock the boat too much before the EUref.”

I think you’re right and the consensus seems to be that no challenge is likely in the short to mid-term future. I think it’s recognised that Corbyn would win any re-run comfortably so a stalking horse candidate wouldn’t be able to usher in a more serious and credible challenge. In other words, beyond a gesture, what would be the point?

As far as Corbyn’s future is concerned, he needs to avoid meltdown in the English locals tomorrow (moderate Labour losses – <100) a Khan win in London, Labour still clearly ahead in Wales, if less clearly so, and a second place in Scotland. A low bar, I know, but if he can achieve this then he lives to fight another day, hopefully a wiser and more battle-hardened leader. However, big losses in England, a Goldsmith win in London, third in Scotland and run close by Plaid and the Tories in Wales, then he's up to his neck in it.

Big day for him tomorrow and Labour. Sometimes, when you're in trouble, just standing still is an achievement. Corbyn needs to hang in tight tomorrow, and in the immediate days thereafter; both for himself and his party. If there's evidence that Labour are still in the game, then he buys himself some precious time.

“””
By running paper candidates in all constituencies, they may have created a scenario where some may decide they have “done their duty” by the LDs in casting a worthless FPTP vote for them, and then turning to which of the bigger Unionist parties might best “hold the SNP to account”. That is also a fate that could damage Labour on the List.
“””

That would be ironic, as in those regions where the LD vote is hovering around the 6% mark, they need every vote to get even one list seat! It certainly makes the number of LDs to be elected difficult to predict — so far among UKPR posters, I think the low mark is 2 and the highest 7 ….

“The Liberal Democrats have 1,810 councillors, 9% of the Great Britain total down from 11% in 2014. The number of local council seats held by the party peaked in 1996 at 5,078 and has mostly fallen since. The most marked decline has occurred since 2010, with their share of Great Britain council seats falling from 19% in 2010 to 9% in 2015. The
Liberal Democrats now control 6 councils, down from 25 in 2010 and they hold 6% of council seats in the unitary authorities in both Scotland and Wales with no councils controlled.”

Here is the benchmark for UKIP:

“The UK Independence Party took control of its first council in 2015, obtaining control of Thanet from NOC. The party holds just under 2% of seats across Great Britain, though 339 of 342 of these are held in England with three in Wales and none in Scotland.”

“Winchester City Council’s election this year are a bit confusing, though why they should flummox a Scot used to five different electoral systems for five different levels of government I don’t know”
______

Thanks for your link and information on Winchester City Council local elections. I’ve never voted in England (12 when I moved to Scotland) and have only ever voted when I lived in Scotland and that was in 2011 and of course the indy ref.

What confused me with Hampshire was that not all of the county was voting, only parts of it where back in Scotland the whole council area votes. I presume the local elections down here are what they used to be like in Scotland when you had the regional councils such as Strathclyde with smaller district councils within the regional councils. Some of my school books had “property of Eastwood district Council” on them and others had “Strathclyde regional council”

Anyway when I get home I shall read your link in greater depth so I can get to grips with multi layer council elections and hopefully I can make a sound and professional judgement on who I will vote for next time. ;-)

The SNP will be happy with your prediction and by your assumption my ol seat and your current seat will see Ken Mackintosh booted out!! well at least from the constituency.

I can’t see Labour holding onto Coatbridge and Chryston because where it is a straight fight between the SNP and Labour then Labour become much more vulnerable. If Labour are to hold onto any FPTP seats then it’s going to be ol East Ren or Leith where there is scope for tactical voting to keep the SNP out.

I also think the Tories will hold onto Ayr even though it was close to going to the SNP back in 2011 but again there is scope for tactical voting in that seat to keep the SNP out.

Mind you I’m suggesting tactical voting against the SNP,…. it’s not unreasonable to assume some voters from other parties might vote tactically for the SNP to remove a Tory or labour candidate.

Am not sure Greens will get 2 seats in Glasgow, but think there is a possibility in Central and Western, so that’s 8 to 9, but I’m thinking they might make 10 seats altogether.

It will depend on how well the Lib Dems do as these two parties may be fighting it out for the last seat in each region. I’m still thinking that the Lib Dems could lose Orkney to SNP, but that depends on where the 2,052 votes that went to independent James Stockan in 2011 go in 2016.

Then there is the fact that in all the regional cross breaks I have seen recently that the Greens are ahead of the Lib Dems in both Central and Western Scotland.

Finally the only age category where the Lib Dems are ahead of the Greens is in the 55+ category and the Greens are now second ahead of Labour and Conservative among 25 – 34 year olds. So this election is going to come down to turnout among the various age groups as to who ends up with the list seats.

Finally I think the surprise of the night might be Patrick Harvie’s vote numbers in Glasgow Kelvin – i’ll leave it at that.

@OldNat. Indeed. It’s the combination of John Wilson and the professional troubles of the SNP’s Fulton MacGregor (that you’re too polite to mention ;-) ) that make me think Labour could sneak a hold in Coatbridge and Chryston.

Stewart Maxwell could find himself as 2016’s Shirley-Anne Somerville if the SNP take Dumbarton, Renfrewshire South and Greenock & Inverclyde but the Conservatives take Eastwood. With 9 Constituency MSPs it’s unlikely that the SNP will be able to take a 10th on the list and he’d find himself as an SNP MSP kicked out of parliament despite an overall landslide win. Such are the vagaries of the AMS electoral system.

@Allan
“My view on Eastwood is that Ken is gone. I think it’s a straight fight between Jackson Carlaw and Stewart Maxwell”
_____

Hmm!! I think it will between Mackintosh and Maxwell simply because the Scottish parliament seat doesn’t contain Barrhead or Neilston which are more working class areas than the likes of the Mearns and Clarkston which would probably mean a lot of Tories shuffling bum and all over to Labour to keep the SNP out and although there will be no doubt Labour voters coming over to the SNP I just don’t think there will be enough of them to offset the Tory tactical voters going to Labour.

The most ridiculous examples of party names are those I came across in Kenya, where parties based on ethnic/tribal-based support would seemingly just pick random political words for their names, e.g. the Charity Ngilu’s Akamba party at that time was the Social Democratic Party.

I now read that she subsequently joined the National Party of Kenya, which I suspect has little in common with the pre-Apartheid South African party of similar name.

“””
Finally I think the surprise of the night might be Patrick Harvie’s vote numbers in Glasgow Kelvin – i’ll leave it at that.
“””

That would be impressive in symbolic terms, though if it happens, its likely practical effect is just to shift a list seat to a constituency one. Of course, there may be a “booster” effect from having Mr Harvie’s name on the first ballot, drawing more people in to vote Green on the second. Interesting, but ultimately impossible to disentangle from the referendum boost the Greens are undoubtedly enjoying.

OLDNAT
Allan Christie
“There is a Green candidate (John Wilson – List MSP last time, but as SNP) standing in Coatbridge & Chryston. He got 40% of the vote for SNP in 2011”
_______

That does fling a cat among the pigeons and his personal vote may hamper the SNP and let Labour off the hook but I’m still holding out for an SNP gain here simply because I don’t really think voters take the Greens seriously on the constituency ballot mostly because they never really stand on both ballots but we will find out soon enough!!

Turnout;
Danger for the SNP is complacency, our supporters thinking it’s in the bag, but with 115,000 members, possibly more people out for us than all the rest put together and a huge GOTV operation I think we have less to worry about than Labour.

SNP/Green Split;
The SNP have been pushing Both Votes SNP, but if people switch to Green on the list to boost the Pro Independence no of MSP’s then we could see 10 Greens. If Both Votes work and results from the postal GOTV look good here in the Highlands then it is even possible, but unlikely, that the Greens could make few gains.

The Race for Second;
With a lot of speculation about the Tories beating Labour and the Tories campaigning on “Ruth Davidson for a Strong opposition” can we really expect Tories to vote Labour to damage the SNP, when they could deal Labour a historic blow. Equally will Labour voters turn to the Tories if it could mean them coming Second ahead of Labour.

A close battle between the SNP’s to main rivals could work to our advantage, ….or not!

Me thinks that there is a wee little bit of the pre-election night jitters on this list tonight, but the campaigning is now over and it is up to the voters in Scotland.

So the question remains for the voters to decide, if the SNP are going to get an absolute majority through the constituency vote, who do they want to hold them to account – the same old gang of Labour or Tory, or do they want to push them further along the path to a break with the past?

Sadly, I do not think the Lib Dems will be a factor after this election in either Wales or Scotland. As I have said earlier, it will depend on which age demographics decide to vote.

If, as the pollsters said in Canada, the mobile phone generation decide to vote that will not be good for the status quo ante. And the wild card in this election is the fact that 16 and 17 years olds are able to vote, and not knowing who they will vote for.

But it does not look good for Lib Dems among that youngest demographic, and in some tight regional races that could make the difference for a seat or two.

“More than two-thirds of British Jews have a “sense of despair” every time an expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is approved, and three-quarters think that Israel’s approach to making peace with the Palestinians is damaging its standing in the world”

For those thinking of criticizing Corbyn based on the local government election results, this is, according to a 2015 local election Parliamentary Report, the baseline data point to start from:

“Labour has 6,873 councillors, 34% of the Great Britain total. While this is the first decline in the number of council seats held in 6 years, it is still over 2,400 more than in 2009, the lowest number of councillors recorded since the reorganisation of local government in 1973. Labour
controls 114 councils, 28% of the total number in Great Britain down from 30% a year ago. Their share of councils controlled is strongest in metropolitan boroughs with over 80% compared with only 15% in shire districts, down 1 percentage point from a year ago. In Wales, Labour has 45% of councillors and controls 45% of councils, whilst in
Scotland their 32% of councillors yields control of only 13% of councils.”

The BMG fieldwork finished over a week ago on 26th April so too early to pick up any Livingstone effect should there be one! It does tend to confirm,however, that the Opinium poll was a bit of a rogue.