Levi,
I really enjoy your blogs and appreciate you downplaying the “hype train” that seems to roll through social media every time the GFS and Euro start spitting out wild solutions 7-10 days out. As a meteorologist myself, I share your frustration and have been steering as many people as I can to your website (and away from Facebook) for a legitimate and educational tropical discussion. Thank you for what you do.

Levi’s website Tropical Tidbits is the first place I go for Hurricane and storm related information. He lays out visually and explains what we’re looking at in a very detailed manner that everyone can understand. Levi has a calmness about him while, at times, news may not be. His cadence remains steady throughout his reports – from the beginning to the end and from the start of the wave until run is over. Thank you Levi for your expert analysis.

Thank you for your website and insights! I found you from twitter links from another weather site. I must say your information and presentation of your analysis is a breath of fresh air. Thanks and keep it up! Fantastic. Thank you.

I just discovered your site Levi, and as a Floridian, I wish I had known about you a long time ago. Your videos are insightful and enlightening. Thank you so much for putting in the time to make these.

Levi, I really appreciate your help in parsing the information embedded in models. I feel like you help me peek behind the veil of the NHC forecasts and discussions. Specifically, I appreciate you stressing that we have little certainty about the position of Hurricane Irma (and the atmospheric conditions steering her) past five days. Thanks for your measured words and analysis.

Note that Irma has tracked south of NHC’s expected track and the track predicted by the GFS. It’s not taking the tracks that would be expected based on historical data. The subtropical ridging is very strong right now in the Atlantic. This is bad news because historically storms in this location are likely to stay out to sea. The strong subtropical ridge is making landfall in the U.S. or Canada more likely.

Noted.
Note also this is a major hurricane.
Make no mistake the factors that decree hurricanes like these are not born in the Atlantic. The factors contributing to major Atlantic hurricanes like those of 2005 are born in East Africa. They travel across the african conveyer and then grow in the Atlantic and explode in the Caribbean and the Americas.

Irma has all the ingredients and then some. She was even offered a knowing embrace while she left.

Hold onto your hats folks. The best thing NYC can hope for is that Irma takes interest and gets stuck in the gulf.

Interesting that some forecast models also should a smaller storm to the southeast of Irma approaching the Antilles just as Irma possibly threatens the Bahamas and beyond.
Might they both influence each other, or at least cause the storm to the south to be perhaps weaker than otherwise if it tracks through the same waters? Or …an unusual double threat?

Only recently discovered this site – very impressed with the format and sensible presentation after the increasingly unhelpful comments on Dr Masters blog. Excellent job – sadly I shall be following closely because I am sitting in the northern Leewards with a house , boat and business all at risk in the event of a close pass.

Thank you, we are scheduled to fly tomorrow morning to Saint John and it looks like the European model is telling us not to BUT we want to believe the GFS!! AHHHHH, decisions to make. We will continue to monitor your site and make a sound decision. Not looking good for us! Thank you for such a great site.

The problem I am having, and maybe other posters too, is a clear cut or better screen that shows exactly where, if any, wind sheer is or could be out there! The ones I’ve seen all seem to be either ambiguous or almost impossible to read! I guess what I’m saying is we need a better “wind sheer” map that shows us if some or any wind sheer is going to affect these systems that are coming through!

Also, what is considered a “fast moving” hurricane? Harvey was bad, very bad, because it practically stalled or was moving at 1 or 2 miles per hour! So in you expert opinion, what is classified or considered to be a fast moving hurricane…..10, 15 or 20 miles an hour?

Hi Levi, great analysis as always! I am wondering if the above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin often create greater pressure heights on the Bermuda High ridge than the global models typically forecast and often push tropical systems further west. I remember you touched on this last year. Would like to hear you touch on that again if you think that may be an influencing factor this year.

SSTs can indeed impact steering currents averaged over a long period of time, and it’s possible that the Bermuda ridge has extended farther west so far this year in part due to the warm west Atlantic. But hurricane season steering currents depend on many things, and it’s hard to draw any solid conclusions.

I’m in Puerto Rico too! I guess it all comes down to monitoring the low pressure area right above us and its impact on Irma’s west-southeast route. Levi could you brief us on the historical odds that Irma could be pushed further south? Or is it too early to tell?

Thank you very much, Levi! Your site is great – just the information I was looking for as I track the storm from the Virgin Islands. I very much appreciate you providing a full explanation. It’s so much better when the “why” is provided.

Awesome info as always Levi! We just returned home to Florida from the BVI’s and were concerned for Harvey prior to leaving. Now home and Irma has our full attention. We lived by your forecasts, with hurricane Matthew last year, all the way up until he made the turn away from Cape Canaveral, and we were spared just as the power went out!

Keep up the great work, I send everyone I know in Florida, the link to your site.

Levi, If the storm grows stronger, is it more likely to curve northward? I have heard in the past of storms that if they remain weak it is more likely to have a greater westward component while the stronger ones curve north. Fact or fiction? Thank You !!

That’s a rule of thumb which is often true, but not always. This is one of those times that it probably doesn’t work very well. Irma’s current strength may actually be helping it to move farther south, because the southward-directed steering flow is found higher up in the atmosphere right now.

As always, thanks for a well-detailed forecast. I understand it’s incredibly uncertain to predict 5+ days in anticipation, but as a resident in the Dominican Republic, I am hoping this go far north away from us. Based on the current forecast, do you think there’s a reasonable amount of chance this doesn’t hit us?

Love your site. Just found out about it and now look every day. Thanks for your hard work. Praying this hurricane dies. Have so much family in east Texas. So sad. Now live in Midwest and hoping East coast isn’t hurt. ?