Diaries

Before the last possession of the 1st half of the Northwestern game, when they took a timeout, I started wondering: “When the opposing team can hold the ball for the final shot of the 1st half, is it better to intentionally foul if they’re only in the 1-and-1?” So I decide to look at the math…

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Assuming for this analysis that every team scores 1.1 points per possession on average, if you don’t foul, and the other team executes properly in not letting you get a shot afterwards, they’ll get 1.1 points on average.

In the end, you end up net positive almost 0.9 points! To me, that’s well worth someone getting an additional foul (of your choice), especially if you can substitute in a bench warmer before the play when the other coach calls a timeout to setup. You could also use the opposing team’s timeout to setup your offensive possession, which could increase you average PPP for your next possession.

What? Seriously? I mean... we all understand that the surest way to murder your prospects for the NFL is to get "coached" by Jay Paterno, right?

I think we're out, bizarrely. At this point Penn State is a much better option for Michigan fans, as PSU's class outside of Pryor is pretty crappy everywhere except linebacker, especially if this Shaw switch is legit (upon which more later). If there's any school in the country guaranteed to staple Pryor's butt to the bench for two years and then concoct an offensive scheme that minimizes his talents, it's Penn State.

Despite some wavering earlier, Shaw is for sure in. However, now there is panic over McGuffie who has not yet sent in his LOI.

Signing day recap. Rodriguez did a good job in just filling the class with anyone, let alone getting a number of highly rated, potential contributors. This is reflected in how the overall ranking was maintained throughout the coaching transition. There are concerns though that there is only one DL and three DBs.

Rodriguez presser notes. Still waiting on 1 to 3 players: Pryor, McGuffie, and Demens. But the post is updated that Demens LOI is in.

Is there a German word like schadenfreude that means making fun of someone else's future but it actually turns out just fine for them and then you want to forget you ever said anything in the first place? Cause that’s what happens when you write a post about how Michigan State brought in a terrible recruiting class and they’re claiming they’re going to play in the Rose Bowl and isn’t that just ridiculous? No? Ok, let’s move on.

February 8 - Friday

Unverified Voracity Takes Nine Steps, Then Shoots. Joe Tiller is not happy with Rodriguez for violating a “gentlemen’s agreement” about poaching recruits from other Big Ten programs. Brian shreds this idea. Also, FL WR Martavious Odoms still hasn’t signed and could yet join Michigan’s class.

More shredding of the gentlemen’s agreement idea. Almost every coach in the Big Ten has poached players from within the conference.

February 9 - Saturday

#1 ‘M’ hockey is in the midst of a weekend series with #2 Miami. They won the first game. A second win would really strengthen their position for the rest of the season.

The Stupidity of Hope. Boy if that doesn’t sum up the last decade. This very long post deals with Pryor and parses the various rumors and statements from the last few days.

Unverified Voracity Ducks. Lots more about snake oil and refuting arguments about Rodriguez’s dishonorable tactics. Apparently, Tiller was trying to take one of Brady Hoke’s Ball St. commits on the morning of signing day.

What I can vouch for is that Barwis is amazing. His presence is absolutely terrifying, he's so incredibly motivating that even in the brief time I was there I would have done absolutely any drill he made me do as hard as I could. He's a very, very special coach - you want to do exactly as he says because you're so very sure that it'll make you better. During the suicides that we did at the end, he singled me out because I was lagging and screamed at me; I've never willed my body to go faster ever in my life. Awesome.

February 18 - Monday

The basketball team has won three straight, and there is mild excitement for the program. So much so that the court was rushed after a win against a mediocre OSU team.

Another hockey recap. ‘M’ is now up five points on Miami in the CCHA. More importantly:

PWR Breakdown

Hokay. It's like this. By virtue of Michigan's performance to date they have locked up a tournament bid and will be no worse than a two seed no matter what happens from here on out. Michigan could go 0-6 the rest of the way and be a two seed.

With hemming and hawing at an all-time high following Michigan missing a zillion free throws against Minnesota, the same old platitudes about not being able to hit free throws costing you in March started to be bandied about. They made me wonder if Michigan hasn’t already paid a price.

Michigan is currently shooting 63.8% from the free throw line, good for a stinky #342 ranking per Kenpom.com. Historically, Beilein’s Michigan teams have significantly-to-overwhelmingly outperformed D1 average FT%, but we will consider the current D1 average FT% of 71.5% as our “NO LONGER UNACCEPTABLE” number.

I have neither the interest nor the capability to prognosticate how an increase in Michigan’s FT% would translate to how their offense works or how games would have been affected in the big-picture, but I did think it would be interesting to take a look at how end-game FT shooting affected the outcomes in Michigan’s closest games.

I anecdotally decided to look at the last 5 minutes of games, as that is when, in my household, missing the front-end of a 1-and-1 goes from a “C’mon man!” to a war crime. I chose to define close games as games where the winning team has a win% of less than 90% at any point in those last 5 minutes. Hopefully this will give us a peek at when and if not shooting D1 average FT% cost Michigan potential paths to wins when they lost or easier wins when they won.

Tier 1 - No Reasonable Argument FT% would have Changed Anything:

VCU, OSU, vs Purdue, MSU

Not going to go through these 4 games individually, but if it’s here it means changing Michigan’s free throw percentage does not lead to a significant difference in the magnitude or ease of victory or chance at a win, probably because Michigan didn’t take any free throws or they hit the ones they took at a D1 average level already.

@Purdue

Technically this game doesn’t satisfy my standards as Purdue was never less than 90% to win during the last 5 minutes but I counted it anyway. The only free throws taken in the last 5 were when Zavier Simpson had a chance to cut the Purdue lead from 5 to 3 with 19 seconds left and went 0-2. Purdue was already in the double bonus and is an excellent free throw shooting team, so Michigan was almost certainly cooked regardless of the outcome of Simpson's FTs.

UCLA

Matthews missed a front-end and went 1-2 on another 1-and-1 before Eli Brooks hit 2 FTs to send the game to overtime. If Matthews hits 1 more FT, Michigan potentially wins in regulation, but that would have potentially bumped Michigan from 3-5 to 4-5 end-game FTs, and over the 71.5% standard. Simpson and Matthews combined to shoot all 6 Michigan free throws in overtime, and only managed to hit 1 of them. However, neither player went to the line with less than a 6 point lead as Michigan coasted to an easy victory in the extra period.

Tier 3 - Better FT% Plainly Improves End-game Prospects:

LSU

After Moritz Wagner canned a 3 to go up 6 with 3 minutes remaining, Michigan’s only points the rest of the way would come from 2-4 FT shooting, with Eli Brooks and Charles Matthews each splitting a pair. Matthews’s attempts came while down 2 with the shot clock turned off. Had Michigan managed to go 3-4 during this stretch, it would have forced LSU to make a game-winning shot or go to overtime. Instead, Michigan was forced to foul, and Abdur-Rahkman missed a wild attempt on the final play.

Maryland

Michigan shot 4-8 across the last 5 minutes of the game, 2-6 before MAAR nihilistically went 2-2 to win the game in regulation. Bumping Michigan up to 4-6 FTs almost certainly gets them a win in regulation without any low-percentage inbounds plays needing to go off.

Here’s a dude that will never miss ANY clutch FTs!

Minnesota

Michigan shot 2-6 across the last 5 minutes (including 4 misses from Abdur-Rahkman, the FT hero vs Maryland) and the way this one played out, you have to figure any additional makes would have gotten them the win in regulation. Michigan proceeded to shoot 2-5 in the overtime period. 3-5 or better would likely have had them shooting more FTs to maintain a small lead rather than needing MAAR to hit a dramatic layup-and-1 for the win. ...maybe things worked out for the best.

I only observed 3 games this year where improving Michigan’s FT% to D1 average level would have made an undeniable impact on the final possessions, and Michigan managed to go 2-1 in those games regardless. In the game they lost, barring a FT% increase to 100%, the best Michigan could have hoped for was forcing overtime.

[Ed-Ace: I'm taking time off this weekend but this diary stands in quite well for a game recap and gives me an excuse to post MG's photos.]

[This and all other photos: Marc-Gregor Campredon]

I don't like to wade into the open threads during or after a game, and since there isn't a recap posted, I wanted to make a couple notes about the game today. It seemed like some folks were disappointed with today's game so I'm going to channel Ace and try to dish out some perspective.

A John Beilein basketball team just shot a horrific 8-32 from three, an unfathomable 12-28 FTs, watched an opposing freshman who came into the game shooting an abysmal 39/19 toss in circus shot after circus shot despite being defended pretty well....and still won. Huh? How did that happen?

1) Rebounding. M continues to be an elite, you heard that correctly, elite defensive rebounding team (11th in the country). Minnesota only rebounded 13% of their misses (5 OREBs) to our 26% (11 OREBs) which gave us five more shot equivalents, every one of them was needed the way we shot.

2) Defense. I thought we played pretty good defense the whole game, but Mason started the game hitting his (typically) ill-advised pull-ups from 17 feet and then Washington took over and hit everything (almsot literally as he started 9-10) he threw towards the basket despite Z being right there making it difficult most of the time. I was like, great, thanks Brian. You had to go write the entire preview about their awful 2 point shooting, and of course, they make them against us (and for the record it was just Mason and Washington that shot well, everyone else was mediocre to bad).

Beilein made a very smart move to go zone (which I almost always hate and which usually goes poorly) right around the time we were down 10 with about 10 min to go.

Zone was a perfect way to slow down a team that was going one-on-one exclusively and weren't threating to pass or hit threes. They did get a couple dunks/shots at the rim off drive and dishes which will happen against a zone, but we took away what had been working for them: Washington driving the lane.

3) Points in the paint. Thanks to Z, Matthews and MAAR driving the lane, we scored 40 points in the paint. I don't even what's going on anymore.

Yes, this is not your older brother's M team that wins or loses by the three. We win with defense and rebounding sometimes too! Extremely nice to be able to do that on an off day (and this day was realllllly off despite those threes being mostly great looks).

Individual shoutouts:

Z got the appreciation thread and he was outstanding down the stretch with a couple layups and a pretty steal and pass ahead to Duncan on the break during the comeback. Then he took over in OT with two layups and a three. Despite shooting an awful 1-8 from three (and they were ugly like his freshman year) he was 6-6 (!!) from two (we won't talk about the 0-2 FTs).

Charles Matthews deserves a lot of credit for having a good second half after a brutal first half in which he went 0-6 FGs. He went 4-5 in the second half and had all 13 of his points after the break.

Mo Wagner had one of his steadier games as a Wolverine. He wasn't spectacular like he can be occasionally and he wasn't victimized down low like he also can be. He continues to be the anchor of our elite defensive rebounding, his only TO was a three second violation and his double-double (16 points, 10 rebounds) was big.

MAAR: Oh yeah, the guy that had 17 pts including the game winner which was reminiscent of the Maryland game except this time instead of getting tripped he spun to the bucket for the and1.

The 4 combo. Livers was once again very solid while in the game with his usual uber-efficient shooting (5 pts on 3 shots), rebounding (2 OREBs, 3 DREBs in just 17 min) and defense (2 blocks). But Duncan played 28 min in this one because in a zone, we can hide him on the wing and don't have to worry nearly as much about him getting beat because there's a guy waiting in the middle of the zone. He was also efficient with 10 pts on 6 shots and 2 assists to 1 TO.

This is probably the time to point out that 1 TO of Robinson's was a travel to give Minn the ball back with M up 3 with 8 seconds to go after being intentionally fouled multiple times. This was the worst call/no-call of the season in a season filled with them. The ref was standing five feet away from this happening and despite knowing Minnesota was trying to foul, and despite them doing a good job of it, he did not call it. If we had lost, this call would have been the story of the game. Refs had to be relieved that we won.

Minnesota, of course, hit a three to tie it on a play on which we probably missed a switch, very similar to the Maryland three to take the lead. Luckily we were up three this time so it just meant OT, but that makes it all the more inexcusable to give up an open three when you should be a lot less concerned about giving up a two.

Perspective: we won a game in which we shot terribly, and in this one, it wasn't opponent induced, we were getting shots we wanted. It happens. That we got the W because of our defense and rebounding is very encouraging for the future when we'll almost always shoot better than this. There's been some grumbling about the team since the MSU game, but remember:

1) M covered the spread in each of our last three games: Rutgers, Purdue and Northwestern. Not sure if we fans just aren't used to winning with great defense and meh offense and that's what makes it seem like we aren't playing well, but despite expectations being high for us right now (on the form of point spreads), we still exceeded those expectations in our three previous games.

2) In our six games since MSU, we have been the 42nd best team in the country per Bart Torvik's rankings. So we've still played like a top 50 team despite clunkers at Nebraska and today's...whatever that was. To put that in perspective, teams that have played worse during that time: Kentucky, Rhode Island, Creighton, Clemson, Wich St. Gonzaga....those are all teams projected to be higher seeded than M. That's pretty good for this being a so-called "bad" stretch.

Hesitating to post this, even as a diary, but here goes. Saw my first game at Crisler since '84, but what a game. Down and back in one day, took some of the kids, much of the snowy drive in 4x4, going around and through other vehicles like gates on a slalom course. But what a day, what a memorable, meaningful day.

1. The Basketball Game - So yeah, that was I think what Brian/Seth call a 'rock fight', but we won. Short story, if this was a hoops UFR, would be Refs -10; Michigan Free Throws negative...., well, how much numbers are there in the world? Put that number in after the '-' sign. Then multiply it. I would add that Gopher guard Mason is alleged to have actually made more shots than he took. Thats unpossible, but we're checking the tape to verify.

2. The Ushers - I think I am finally getting it about the ushers. You know how we go to the football games and they introduce those guys with X years of service? Well I talked with some today. Scanner Blue introduced us to his work-mates and they must have to go to some kind of smile/customer service boot camp. All businesses should send their staff to the same camp. I met one guy, Herb, who had been working Crisler for 45 years. That's a lot, right? Well guess what. He's been working football for 70 years. Not a typo, 70 years. Many of us won't live that long. Can you imagine the love and committment to Michigan to do that for 70 years? The dude is 90, and when folks started showing up he was doing all the stuff all the other ushers were doing. Will any of us even be concious at 90? I'm going to guess that those type of folks get married and stay married, don't switch jobs too much, and their kids come home at the holiday, glad to see them. We could all use some of what those ushers have.

We met Phil, he's the floor supervisor, uber friendly. Actually let the twins high-five the players going into the tunnel. To a 10 year old, that's almost like touching the hand of a diety.

Then there's Scanner Blue. We have barely said 'hello' this afternoon and he's handing the kids a bag o' swag that'll cause covetousness and wrestling matches to break out in the XM house for the next month. Awesome stuff. There were flags, key chains, lights, posters, even a knit cap from the U of M Cancer Center - which has become my new winter cap. Fatherhood has its privileges. Did you know Scanner is a U of M engineering grad that decided to become a high-end, interior trim carpenter? In the building trades that is considered art work. He's in SE Michigan, look him up for your next building project.

3. The MgoCommunity - The real reason I write this is the MgoCommunity and its unique nature. Where else on earth can you have a thread about astrophysics right next to one asking for advice about expressing your dog's glands, next to a 'Wife Day' thread? There are so many smart and kind people here. At the game robf and I were texting (we left after the game, failed to meet this time, I blame myself), Scanner was making sure we were taken care of (spoiled us rotten), a frequent Mgoblog lurker, we'll call him Larry, stopped by to say hi, and we even got to meet Seth. Seth seems to be as cool in person as he is in print. Someday I'm going to corner him and pepper him with questions, but luckily for him, today was not that day.

But what about the more important stuff? What about the occasional thread where guys/gals need help, prayer, a job, a ticket, advice for getting into school? This is the place for that. What about the incredibly personal stuff, the stuff that takes your breath away - remember Brutus and his wife this fall? There's been threads that included great help for things like depression or cancer or how about that thread yesterday, the one where a long-time lurker, infrequent poster, had an OP about abuse that was as thoughtful and well-worded as I've ever read.

Unlike virtually every other message board you've ever visited, there's real people here. Its kind of like your weekly Saturday morning basketball game with the same group showing up. Sure, one guy doesn't pass, another keeps taking 3's like he's going to make them and never does, and none of us are as fast or jump as high as we used to. But you know what, these are also the same people that will pull their truck up to yours and jump you battery b/c yours won't crank, and buy you breakfast after the game b/c you 'forgot' your wallet. Contrast that with when you go play hoops at some big-city court. Every foul is an argument, some break out in fights. That's because of the anonymity, the attitude that they'll never see that guy again so who cares, take that ball, argue the call, start a pushing match.

I know I value this community and try to treat it like a Saturday morning basketball game. There are so many people here that are worthwhile folks. I guess it'd be a good thing to keep in mind once in a while, might help us with the tougher topics. Besides, you might need your car jumped someday and the blogger you are being snarky to might be the one whose got cables. Heck of a day, heck of an MgoCommunity.

Analysis: Granted, this was probably score-adjusted, but whoa. After a night where Michigan did not create anything at even strength, this looked like a different offense. Michigan took 31 attempts (60% of their total) from the House (front of the net to the dots and up to the top of the faceoff circles) and came away with no goals. Sports! Before there was any score, Michigan created about four looks that had great chances of producing a goal. So, it wasn’t all situational. If the Wolverines reproduce this, they’ll likely get four or five on the board. Hayton played well, but he had bounces go his way tonight. There were rebounds, trickles, and whiffs all night. Michigan just could not bury anything. There are nights like that, and Michigan got one when they could least afford it. Let’s see if they can reproduce this next weekend. They’ll need to do so.