Perfect storm could be brewing for a mosquito invasion of N.J.

Experts say it's tough to predict how bad any mosquito season will be, but there are some major contributing factors.

(Jim Gathany | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

Here's a scenario that might bug a lot of people: If New Jersey has a wet spring this year it could be the perfect storm for mosquitoes, after the state notched one of its warmest winters on record.

Most species of these annoying blood-sucking insects need two major things to thrive: Warm weather and wet places to breed. They already had a few months of unseasonably mild temperatures, which could push up the production cycle of certain types of mosquitoes, according to some insect experts.

"During the past few years, cold winters and extensive snow on the ground tended to knock back the (mosquito) population" because it was too frigid for some larvae to emerge from eggs and develop into adult mosquitoes, said Matthew Bickerton, a biologist who works for the Middlesex County Mosquito Extermination Commission.

"With the warmer winter this year, we are expecting an accelerated season" for some varieties of mosquitoes, he said. "Some of the eggs are weeks ahead of production."

Even if mosquitoes do start biting a little early, Bickerton said, that doesn't necessarily mean New Jerseyans are in for a punishing spring and summer full of nasty bites and itchy skin.

"Winter temperatures are definitely a factor, but rainfall is also a big factor," he noted. 'If we end up getting a very dry season, like last year, when we had early June rain, then very little rainfall the rest of the season," that would keep mosquito populations down.

"They all need water to lay eggs on, so if you have less rain, that generally equates to lower mosquito populations -- and sometimes much lower mosquito populations," Bickerton said.

The New Jersey Mosquito Control Commission agrees with that assessment.

"Water is the main factor in whether mosquitoes reproduce," said Caryn Shinske, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Environmental Protection, which oversees the mosquito control commission. "More water means more mosquito populations."

That's why state and county mosquito control officials routinely urge homeowners to reduce or eliminate standing water around their property. It only takes a thin layer of water in a bird bath, a discarded tire or a watering can to provide a thriving breeding ground for mosquitoes, experts say.

"If you leave a bucket outside, even if you left a small cup outside, they would lay eggs in that," Bickerton said. "A lot of people don't even realize that the baby mosquito lives in the water, in the larva stage. The eggs hatch and the larva remains in the water."

Mosquito larvae could transform into an adult mosquito that's flying around in as little as a week, the biologist said. "It can be very, very quick."

The Asian tiger mosquito, recognized by its stripes, doesn't adapt well to very cold weather, so its survivability rate may have been enhanced by New Jersey's mild winter, said Gary Donato, an entomologist for the Mosquito Vector Control Program at the Hunterdon County Division of Public Health.

Workers from the Morris County Mosquito Commission remove discarded tires from a wooded area in Denville in this file photo. Experts say each tire has the potential to breeds hundreds of thousands of mosquitoes. (Star-Ledger File Photo)

"We may see an increase, but it's a little too early to tell," Donato said.

Like other mosquito experts, Donato said the amount of rain that falls this spring will play a big role in how high or low the production of these annoying critters will be. And the swarms can vary in different regions of the state.

"South Jersey can be very dry and North Jersey can be very wet, and vice versa," Donato said.

Last September, a big chunk of New Jersey was placed under a drought watch because of very low rainfall -- something that was good for limiting mosquito growth but bad for the state's reservoirs, stream flow and agricultural production.

The drought watch was lifted on March 1, after a series of snowstorms and rain storms reversed the shortfalls that had developed after last year's unusually dry summer and fall.

March has turned out to be on the dry side, with very little snow and low amounts of rain. As of March 30, New Jersey had only 2 inches of overall precipitation -- rain and melted snow -- according to New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson at Rutgers University.

If that holds up through the final day of the month, it would be the state's 11th driest March since 1895, Robinson said.

No Zika virus concerns in N.J.

Health officials do not expect the mosquito-borne Zika virus, which has been prevalent in South America and Central America, to spread into the New Jersey region.

So far, no one has contracted the virus from mosquitoes in the continental United States, but there have been 312 reported cases in which Americans have been infected with the virus while traveling outside the country, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.