Title: An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions

Abstract

In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.

@article{osti_1304819,
title = {An improved empirical model of electron and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit based on upstream solar wind conditions},
author = {Denton, M. H. and Henderson, M. G. and Jordanova, V. K. and Thomsen, M. F. and Borovsky, J. E. and Woodroffe, J. and Hartley, D. P. and Pitchford, D.},
abstractNote = {In this study, a new empirical model of the electron fluxes and ion fluxes at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) is introduced, based on observations by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) satellites. The model provides flux predictions in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV, as a function of local time, energy, and the strength of the solar wind electric field (the negative product of the solar wind speed and the z component of the magnetic field). Given appropriate upstream solar wind measurements, the model provides a forecast of the fluxes at GEO with a ~1 h lead time. Model predictions are tested against in-sample observations from LANL satellites and also against out-of-sample observations from the Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II detector on the AMC-12 satellite. The model does not reproduce all structure seen in the observations. However, for the intervals studied here (quiet and storm times) the normalized root-mean-square deviation < ~0.3. It is intended that the model will improve forecasting of the spacecraft environment at GEO and also provide improved boundary/input conditions for physical models of the magnetosphere.},
doi = {10.1002/2016SW001409},
journal = {Space Weather},
number = 7,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {2016},
month = {7}
}

Knowledge of the plasma fluxes at geosynchronous orbit is important to both scientific and operational investigations. We present a new empirical model of the ion flux and the electron flux at geosynchronous orbit (GEO) in the energy range ~1 eV to ~40 keV. The model is based on a total of 82 satellite-years of observations from the Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer instruments on Los Alamos National Laboratory satellites at GEO. These data are assigned to a fixed grid of 24 local-times and 40 energies, at all possible values of Kp. Bi-linear interpolation is used between grid points to provide the ionmore » flux and the electron flux values at any energy and local-time, and for given values of geomagnetic activity (proxied by the 3-hour Kp index), and also for given values of solar activity (proxied by the daily F10.7 index). Initial comparison of the electron flux from the model with data from a Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor II (CEASE-II), also located at geosynchronous orbit, indicate a good match during both quiet and disturbed periods. The model is available for distribution as a FORTRAN code that can be modified to suit user-requirements.« less

This study aims to statistically estimate the errors in local magnetic field directions that are derived from electron directional distributions measured by Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous (LANL GEO) satellites. First, by comparing derived and measured magnetic field directions along the GEO orbit to those calculated from three selected empirical global magnetic field models (including a static Olson and Pfitzer 1977 quiet magnetic field model, a simple dynamic Tsyganenko 1989 model, and a sophisticated dynamic Tsyganenko 2001 storm model), it is shown that the errors in both derived and modeled directions are at least comparable. Second, using a newly developedmore » proxy method as well as comparing results from empirical models, we are able to provide for the first time circumstantial evidence showing that derived magnetic field directions should statistically match the real magnetic directions better, with averaged errors &lt; ∼ 2°, than those from the three empirical models with averaged errors &gt; ∼ 5°. In addition, our results suggest that the errors in derived magnetic field directions do not depend much on magnetospheric activity, in contrast to the empirical field models. Finally, as applications of the above conclusions, we show examples of electron pitch angle distributions observed by LANL GEO and also take the derived magnetic field directions as the real ones so as to test the performance of empirical field models along the GEO orbits, with results suggesting dependence on solar cycles as well as satellite locations. This study demonstrates the validity and value of the method that infers local magnetic field directions from particle spin-resolved distributions.« less

The first geomagnetic storm of 1997 began on January 10. It is of particular interest because it was exceptionally well observed by the full complement of International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) satellites and because of its possible association with the catastrophic failure of the Telstar 401 telecommunications satellite. Here we report on the energetic electron environment observed by five geosynchronous satellites. In part one of this paper we examine the magnetospheric response to the magnetic cloud. The interval of southward IMF drove strong substorm activity while the interval of northward IMF and high solar wind density strongly compressed the magnetosphere.more » At energies above a few hundred keV, two distinct electron enhancements were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The first enhancement began and ended suddenly, lasted for approximately 1 day, and is associated with the strong compression of the magnetosphere. The second enhancement showed a more characteristic time delay, peaking on January 15. Both enhancements may be due to transport of electrons from the same initial acceleration event at a location inside geosynchronous orbit but the first enhancement was due to a temporary, quasi-adiabatic transport associated with the compression of the magnetosphere while the second enhancement was due to slower diffusive processes. In the second part of the paper we compare the relativistic electron fluxes measured simultaneously at different local times. We find that the {gt}2-MeV electron fluxes increased first at noon followed by dusk and then dawn and that there can be difference of two orders of magnitude in the fluxes observed at different local times. Finally, we discuss the development of data-driven models of the relativistic electron belts for space weather applications. By interpolating fluxes between satellites we produced a model that gives the {gt}2-MeV electron fluxes at all local times as a function of universal time. In a first application of this model we show that, at least in this case, magnetopause shadowing does not contribute noticeably to relativistic electron dropouts. {copyright} 1998 American Geophysical Union« less

On rare occasions, satellites at geosynchronous altitude enter the magnetospheric lobe, characterized by extremely low ion fluxes between 1 eV and 40 keV and electron fluxes above a few hundred eV. One year of plasma observations from two simultaneously operating spacecraft at synchronous orbit is surveyed for lobe encounters. A total of 34 full encounters and 56 apparent near encounters are identified, corresponding to {approximately}0.06% of the total observation time. Unlike energetic particle (E>40 keV) dropouts studied earlier, there is a strong tendency for the lobe encounters to occur postmidnight, as late as 07 local time. The two spacecraft encountermore » the lobe with different rates and in different seasons. These occurrence properties are not simply explicable in terms of the orbital geometry in either the solar magnetic or the geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinate system. A composite coordinate system which previously organized more energetic particle dropouts is somewhat more successful in organizing the lobe encounters, suggesting that solar wind distortion of the magnetic equatorial plane away from the dipole location and toward the antisolar direction may be largely responsible for these dropouts. The authors results further suggest that this distortion persists even sunward of the dawn-dusk terminator. However, a simple dawn-dusk symmetric distortion does not fully account for all the seasonal and local time asymmetries in the occurrence of the lobe encounters; thus there is probably an additional dawn-dusk asymmetry in the distorted field. The lobe encounters are strongly associated with magnetospheric activity and tend to occur in association with rare magnetosheath encounters at synchronous orbit. It thus appears that the presence of the lobe at geosynchronous orbit is the result of major, probably asymmetric modifications of the magnetospheric field geometry in times of strong disturbance. 19 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.« less

Vector magnetic fields at geosynchronous orbit were measured during 1980-1984 using the operational GOES 2, GOES 5, and GOES 6 spacecraft magnetometers. The authors corrected these spacecraft measurements for offsets due to spacecraft state and then used these field estimates to create a data base with 1-min resolution. Hourly quiet field values were calculated for these years from this data base using the ground-based geomagnetic index criteria AE < 120 nT and {vert bar}Dst{vert bar} < 20 nT. These quiet field components, rotated into dipole HVD coordinates, were approximated by the first two coefficients of a two-dimensional Fourier series inmore » time of day and season. The quiet geosynchronous field components, to first order, are given by mean values of about 90 nT, {minus}60 nT, and 5 nT; and sinusoidal diurnal amplitudes of about 21 nT, 5 nT, and 5 nT, respectively, for H, V, and D where the spacecraft magnetometer was located near the geomagnetic meridian. The second harmonic diurnal amplitudes and the first and second harmonic seasonal amplitudes are typically of the order of a few nanoteslas or less except for the D component, which exhibits a larger seasonal variation. Furthermore, a one-dimensional Fourier series in time of day was used to study the quiet field dependence on solar wind dynamic pressure, P{sub d}, by indexing the measurements into five pressure ranges during 1980. These quiet H measurements, including the pressure dependence, are compared with a first-order field model superimposed with a tail current, resulting in magnetospheric currents (magnetopause and tail) in agreement with previous model values.« less