What follows is the master log5 for the 68-team field. At the risk of being lumped in with Rick Reilly, I will recycle the disclaimers from last year:

– The calculations below represent the chance of each team advancing to a specific round based on the log5 formula and each team’s pythagorean rating. Unfamiliar with log5? Here’s more than you want to know.

– This does not necessarily represent Ken Pomeroy’s opinion. There are subjective factors which this analysis does not include. Please use it responsibly.

– If you doubt that seeding doesn’t matter (much) check out how similar the order of these teams is to the team’s ranking in my system. Louisville doesn’t suffer much as a four-seed. However, it’s a different story if you have to play extra game like Tennessee.