Sports Takes and Predictions

NFL Divisional Round Playoff Predictions

Well what can I say. Going 0 for 4 is really quite special. Last weekend did not go as I expected. I give a lot of credit to the four winning teams. The Jets offensive game plan worked perfectly. The Cowboys looked especially tough on defense. The Ravens started strong and never stopped. The Cardinals showed a great deal of heart. Will any of it translate into continued momentum? Let’s take a look at the matchups.

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

After finishing off last weekend pulling out the most exciting wildcard matchup, the Cardinals will open up this weekend in what promises to be a highly entertaining game against the #1 seeded Saints.

Keys for the Cardinals
Arizona was an offensive juggernaut last week, rushing for 156 yards and passing for 379 against the #2 defense in the NFL. The Cards are capable of getting hot on offense but I certainly did not think they would be able to do so against the Packers. Kurt Warner is a master of taking advantage of the matchups. If the Cardinals are going to win this week, Kurt will have to exploit the matchups and not lock onto any specific receiver. He’ll have to take what the defense is willing to give and work the ball down the field. Arizona’s defense is going to have to be much improved this week or they will not have a chance to win because they will not get a single stop against the high-powered Saints offense. The Cardinals need to get pressure on Drew Brees with their front line guys like Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett. Both will have to be disruptive forces.

Keys for the Saints
The Saints were cruising through the season undefeated until that ill-fated Saturday night game with Dallas in Week 15. They lost that game and their last two. If they can’t shake the rust off early Saturday afternoon they are going to find themselves down by a lot quickly. Offensively they must get off to a quick start. They must take advantage of a weak Arizona secondary and mix in the run. Defensively they should be helped by some time to heal. They need to be able to depend on their corners and nickel backs to free up Darren Sharper to play center field. If the corners cannot cover, Sharper will have to resume more coverage responsibilities, greatly diminishing his effectiveness.

Prediction
Saints 38-35. Hard to pick against the Cardinals again, but I think the homefield advantage and one more defensive stop will give New Orleans the advantage. I do think both teams will effectively mix in the run eating up more clock and keeping this game in the 30s, as opposed to an all out pass attack game in the 50s.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts

The Ravens were very impressive last week in a win at New England. Of all the games that one shocked me the most. These teams did meet in Week 11, with the Colts pulling out a hard fought 17-15 victory in Baltimore.

Keys for the Ravens
Scoring first may be the biggest key for Baltimore. And with the Ravens that could mean on offense, defense or special teams. They are not a team that is built for comebacks and have struggled all year when playing from behind. They need to find success in the running game, whether it be with Ray Rice or Willis McGahee. Supporting the run game with short, quick read passes should help limit the possessions and give the Ravens a chance to win. On the defensive side of the ball the Ravens need to put the pressure on Peyton Manning. If you give Peyton the time he will carve you up but if you can get to him early you can throw off the Colts’ rhythm.

Keys for the Colts
When the Colts have the ball they are going to have to spread the passing game around to different receivers. Peyton helped develop some new weapons this year and he’ll have to use them for Indianapolis to win this game. They need to beat the blitz early by dinking and dunking and then look downfield for the kill. Defensively the Colts have to stop the Ravens’ running game on first and second down. They need to put Joe Flacco in third down situations where he cannot rely on a run or the short pass, but must drop back and risk getting mowed over by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

Prediction
Colts 27-17. I think the Colts will take advantage of a Ravens secondary that is depleted by injury. The Ravens will be a popular pick, especially after the way they played against New England, but the Colts just have too many weapons.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Of the four games this weekend this one is the most interesting to me. The Cowboys are coming in hot while it is really hard to get a read on Minnesota after the last few weeks of the regular season. These two teams have not met since October 2007.

Keys for the Cowboys
Offensively the Cowboys have to be able to run the football. Minnesota has a dangerous pass rush that can make QBs pay for even thinking about passing. The Dallas running game has been strong recently and they need to keep it going to win. The Dallas defense has been even more impressive than the running game. They absolutely dominated Philly two weeks in a row after shutting out the Redskins and holding New Orleans to 17 points in that critical Saturday night win. This week the defense will have to stop the run. Adrian Peterson is the best runner in the game and Dallas will have to focus on slowing him down.

Keys for the Vikings
Protecting the ball is the most critical area of concern for Minnesota. Adrian Peterson must hold on to the ball and Brett Favre cannot force throws into coverage. Like the Cowboys, the Vikings have to stop the run on defense. Over the course of the season they were excellent at doing so, only allowing an average of 87.1 rushing yards per game. However, in three late season losses they allowed more than 100 to the Cardinals, Panthers and Bears.

Prediction
Cowboys 24-21. All of the Vikings’ ills will catch up with them in this game. As it was in the last part of the regular season, the loss of E.J. Henderson will really be felt in this game as Dallas will be able to move the ball and score touchdowns. A couple of Vikings turnovers will make the difference.

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers

The Jets are coming off an impressive performance against the Bengals while the Chargers are the hottest team in the NFL, having won 11 straight to close out the regular season.

Keys for the Jets
Just like last week the Jets must get good yardage on first and second down to enable Mark Sanchez to have manageable distances to attain on third down. The Jets coaching staff executed an excellent offensive game plan last week that set Sanchez up for success. The two-headed monster of Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene carved up the yardage against the Bengals, that will need to continue in this game for the Jets to have a chance to win. On defense they must mix up their coverages and blitzes to slow the dynamic Chargers passing game. They must make Philip Rivers think an additional second or two, giving the pass rushers enough time to make him uncomfortable.

Keys for the Chargers
Getting the ball to Antonio Gates, and a variety of screens and draws to the running backs, will be the keys to the Chargers offensive success. Darrelle Revis is going to shut down Vincent Jackson but the Jets blitzes should allow windows for throws to Gates, Darren Sproles and LaDainian Tomlinson. Also, the Bengals were very succesful in draw-type runs. Defensively it will be all about stopping the run for the Chargers. Utilizing a variety of run blitzes in their 3-4 scheme should help keep the Jets running game off balance.

Prediction
Chargers 26-17. I like the heart and intensity of the Jets but I think their season will end in San Diego. The Chargers have a playoff savvy team with a lot of confidence and an excellent offense…too much for New York to overcome.