In Gaza, Hamas Faces Test of Strategy

Women on Sunday pass Gaza City houses that Palestinian witnesses said were damaged by Israeli airstrikes.
Reuters

By

Matt Bradley in Gaza City and

Charles Levinson in Tel Aviv

Nov. 25, 2012 8:45 p.m. ET

The flare-up in Gaza has left the territory's Hamas rulers at a crossroads: whether they should evolve into a purely political group or cling to their role as front-line warriors against Israel.

That tension isn't new to the Islamist movement, but has gained a new relevance in the aftermath of the eight-day conflict that resulted in an uneasy cease-fire last week.

Hamas has long been adept at managing dueling identities and conflicting regional alliances. The group's leadership includes both pragmatic politicians who govern Gaza in the more moderate mold of their ideological brethren in Egypt, Turkey and Qatar, and hard-line militants backed by Iran, who advocate a violent struggle against Israel.

If the group had hoped to continue to straddle its dueling identities, the recent conflict with Israel appears to be forcing its hand.

Israel's aerial blitz on the Gaza Strip, which it said was in response to persistent rocket fire into Israel, came as Hamas was already struggling to find its footing amid momentous change.

Two years of Arab uprisings have shuffled the group's regional ties, as Hamas broke with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and began to seek patrons among the newly empowered, more moderate Islamist governments.

Hamas is also in the midst of a succession struggle to see who will replace long time leader Khaled Mashaal, who has vowed to step aside in the coming months. That struggle pits hard-liners favoring an alliance with Iran versus relative moderates closer to Egypt and Qatar, as well as Hamas's Gaza-based leadership against the movement's exiles, who have historically led Hamas.

Israel's top generals said they plotted their offensive in Gaza with Hamas's internal struggle in mind. "For this operation we want to force them to solve this dilemma: Do you want to be a sovereign of your territory or do you want to be a terror organization?" a senior Israeli general, a member of the joint chiefs of staff, asked last week.

The movement's direction could have repercussions for the region and Israeli-Palestinian peace hopes. If Hamas follows the path of its more moderate Arab neighbors, it would empower those seeking a negotiated settlement to a conflict that has destabilized the region for decades.

Much hinges on the success of last week's truce.

If Hamas can show it succeeded in extracting concessions from Israel, chiefly an easing of the blockade of Gaza, Hamas's moderates are likely to gain clout, analysts say. But if the full sea and aerial blockade endures—which Israel says is needed to prevent arms from entering the territory—Hamas will appear to have abandoned the fight, empowering hard-liners.

"I think it's a big opportunity," said Jane Kinninmont, a Middle East analyst at London-based Chatham House, a think tank. "But it depends on if they can get moving on the cease-fire to actually make progress for the people of Gaza."

There are early encouraging signs, say observers.

Palestinians in Gaza say that Israeli soldiers have allowed farmers to till fields closer to the border fence and fisherman to trawl nets farther offshore. Israel denies any policy change.

On Saturday, a leading Muslim cleric in Gaza issued a fatwa, or religious edict, declaring that it was every Muslim's duty to honor the truce.

A senior Israeli official said the early indications that Hamas intended to live up to its end of the bargain were encouraging, but said final judgment will rest on whether Hamas sustains the quiet for an extended period of time, not just a few days or weeks.

Hamas's international legitimacy gained a big boost during the flare-up. The leaders of Egypt, Turkey and Qatar all rallied publicly to its cause. That marked a change of fortunes for the group, after years of being ostracized by U.S.-backed Arab autocrats that kept Hamas marginalized on the global stage. That could bolster Hamas's standing in the eyes of some Palestinians, who now see the group as better stewards of their interests in the international community than its rival Fatah in the West Bank.

But Hamas's closer ties with that bloc of Sunni Muslim nations poses risks to the movement's relationship with Shiite-ruled Iran. In recent years, Iran has emerged as one of Hamas's top patrons, funneling arms and some $120 million a year to the movement while its exiled leadership lived in Iran's ally Syria, said Ahmed Youssef, a longtime adviser to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh.

After Mr. Mashaal left Syria early this year, Tehran withheld Hamas's funding for about four months before resuming payments, said Mr. Youssef.

Egypt, Turkey and Qatar saw the cracks in Hamas's ties with Iran, and began a diplomatic effort to coax Hamas to come out of the diplomatic cold, even allowing Mr. Mashaal to split his time between their capitals in Cairo and Doha.

Qatar's emir became the first head of state to visit Hamas-controlled Gaza last month, pledging $400 million in infrastructure funding to highlight the Gulf emirate's vision for Hamas's future.

Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi's government has taken steps to allow foot traffic through his country's border with Gaza and is making plans to open a free-trade zone along its border with the blockaded enclave.

Just as Iran's influence hardened Hamas's militant resolve, the rising troika's more moderate, peaceful regional ambitions seem to be rubbing off on Mr. Mashaal. Long seen as one of the movement's most defiant hard-liners, Mr. Mashaal has recently emerged as a more dovish voice within Hamas.

"Moving Hamas toward a political party rather than a militant group—that's the direction Khaled Mashaal wants to move the movement," said Shadi Hamid, research director at the Brookings Doha Center.

Mr. Youssef said Mr. Mashaal has become "more pragmatic, more moderate, more realistic," thanks to Egypt's influence. "You grow up when you deal with politics for many years."

Still, the new alignment remains a work in progress. The U.S. and Israel both consider Hamas a terrorist group, and Hamas has not wavered from its stated aim of destroying Israel.

The organization continues to receive funding from Iran. A senior Israeli general said that even as the past war was still raging, their intelligence showed Iran was actively trying to resupply Palestinian militants in Gaza.

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