050
FXUS64 KMAF 032055
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper trough that extends from Montana southwestward back
to the Pacific will move east and drag across Northern Mexico on the
way to the region. The trough will pass into the area Wednesday.
After the trough passes east on Thursday a West Coast ridge will
build into the area Friday with mild wx for the area.
Have had a marginal warm up today with highs in the 50s and 60s but
that is not going to last long. Today should be warmest day since
Feb 25th. A strong cold front will blow through the area tomorrow with
an arctic airmass returning to the region. The front has good
pressure rises behind it and is quickly moving across CO and KS this
afternoon. This front will arrive in the NE Permian Basin early
Wednesday morning and quickly pass through the area. The wind will
be gusty out of the N/NE behind the front. Much of the region will
reach its high temps early with readings falling through the day.
As this front pushes through the Guadalupe Pass could see high wind.
Have issued a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Pass Wednesday night.
Highs only make it into the 30s Thursday. Will take a few days to
recover from this latest cold air intrusion but by the weekend
highs in the 60s should return and continue into early next week.
Have another shot of precip tonight... mainly showers but could be a
few storms. As the cold air moves in Wednesday the precip may mix
with sleet or snow by afternoon especially across Northern Permian Basin.
This precip should change over to snow Wednesday night for much of
the region. Currently have a SPS discussing wintry precip with max
snow accumulation up to 1 inch... if the cold air arrives faster
than an advisory may be needed. Drier conditions begin Thursday
with no additional precip through end of forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 45 47 22 38 / 50 50 30 10
BIG SPRING TX 45 46 22 37 / 40 50 40 10
CARLSBAD NM 43 55 25 39 / 30 30 30 10
DRYDEN TX 51 64 31 43 / 30 40 40 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 48 56 25 39 / 50 40 30 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 47 18 34 / 30 30 30 10
HOBBS NM 43 45 20 38 / 30 40 30 10
MARFA TX 40 56 24 38 / 40 40 30 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 47 48 23 38 / 50 50 30 10
ODESSA TX 47 49 22 38 / 50 50 30 10
WINK TX 46 53 26 39 / 50 40 30 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.
&&
$$
10/72
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