Temperatures are expected to be in the 20s in Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium for Sunday’s AFC championship game between the Chiefs and New England Patriots. The Chiefs began to lay new sod inside Arrowhead on Wednesday, Jan. 16, after much of the field was torn up in the divisional round. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga, File)

Exactly six years ago, on a chilly night in Foxboro, Massachusetts, the Baltimore Ravens unseated the mighty New England Patriots in the AFC championship, stamping their ticket to the Super Bowl. An aggressive Ravens defense intercepted Tom Brady twice, and soon-to-be Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco threw three unanswered, second-half touchdowns to pull off an unexpected upset in the Patriots’ own stadium.

That was the last time a road team won a conference championship game. In the 10 AFC or NFC title games since, only a few road teams have managed to even keep it close. Just four of those 10 games were decided by one score or less.

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More often than not, the road teams were run out of the building. The Colts lost by 38 in their 2015 trip to Foxboro. The Cardinals lost by 34 a year later in Carolina, followed by the Packers in 2017 (21 points) and the Vikings last January (31). Over the past half-decade, the average margin of victory for home teams one win away from the Super Bowl has been a staggering 17.3 points.

Which brings us to Sean McVay, who, judging by his tone, has no use for such a stat.

“Nice,” the Rams coach said, when I asked him about that 0-10 road record on Thursday. “So we shouldn’t show up then, probably.”

McVay’s sarcasm was hard to misinterpret. But as his Rams face the near-impossible task of winning a high-stakes game against the Saints at the Superdome, the significance of a home field, this deep in the NFL playoffs, is also impossible to ignore.

The postseason was deliberately built this way. With its playoff structure, the NFL rewards regular season success more than any other professional league. It’s not hard to understand why having that season’s best teams reach the Super Bowl would be a good thing for the league – and for us.

But fortune favors those who abuse the format. Not only do the top two teams in each conference get the benefit of playing one fewer playoff game, they also get to play the games they do have at home, where, according to a FiveThirtyEight study last year, playoff teams gain nearly five extra points of win probability. It’s no wonder then that four of the last five Super Bowls have pit two one-seeds against each other. The other, two seasons ago, saw a one-seed (New England) beat a two-seed (Atlanta)

The Patriots are the poster franchise for this playoff home field phenomenon. That 2012 AFC championship loss to the Ravens was the last home game the Patriots lost in the playoffs. Since 2001, the Patriots have lost just three times in 23 playoff games at Gillette Stadium.

It helps matters, of course, when you win your division every year for the past decade. Thanks to the Patriots’ dominance of the AFC East, they haven’t played on wild-card weekend since 2009.

They also haven’t won a road game on their way to the Super Bowl in 14 seasons. Which, if you put stock in such things, doesn’t bode well for their chances on the Chiefs’ home turf Sunday. All throughout this season, the Patriots have been a far worse team on the road than at home. The defense has allowed 399 yards and 24 points per game away from home in spite of one of the NFL’s easiest road schedules.

But where the Chiefs have found unique and borderline masochistic ways to lose playoff games at Arrowhead Stadium, the Saints haven’t lost a playoff game in the Superdome since McVay’s freshman year of high school. They’re 7-0 in home playoff games since Dec. 30, 2000, when Kurt Warner threw three picks in a Rams wild-card loss.

“(Home field) is definitely an advantage,” McVay said, “especially when you look at the type of atmosphere that you’re going to have in New Orleans. Having been there, you have a respect for that. We’d love to be at home, but it’s a great opportunity for us to go into their place, try to play a great game and see if we can break that streak.”

Recent history might be stacked against the Rams. You can put as much stock into that as you’d like.

But if Joe Flacco could do it, who’s to say Jared Goff won’t, too?

BEST BET OF CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND

Chiefs (-3) over Patriots. The Patriots may have laid an unexpected smackdown on the Chargers last weekend, but this Sunday, they’ll have to brave a raucous – and ice cold – road atmosphere in Kansas City. Simply put, at 3-5 this season, they haven’t been very good away from New England. The defense has allowed 399 yards and 24 points per game on the road, in spite of one of the easiest road schedules in the NFL. The Chiefs, meanwhile, boast one of the most electric offensive attacks in league history, helmed by the soon-to-be MVP, Patrick Mahomes, at quarterback. Assuming there’s no Andy Reid clock management snafus late in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs, who have scored at least 26 points in every game this season, should have the firepower to outgun the Patriots on offense.

Season record: 8-11

Last week: Chargers (+4) over Patriots — LOSS

BONUS BETS

Saints (-3.5) over Rams. Both of these teams hit a wall offensively over the season’s final month, but both seem to have bounced back in recent weeks. Don’t count on the Rams being able to run the ball as well as they did a week ago against Dallas, given the Saints’ proclivity for shutting down opposing backs. The Saints tore up the Rams through the air the last time they met, and at home, with Drew Brees at the helm, a similar result could be in store.

TOP 11 … MOST IMPORTANT NON-QUARTERBACKS IN THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

11. Andrus Peat, G, Saints. Peat played through a broken hand against the Eagles, and Fletcher Cox promptly roasted him. Now, he gets Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. Good luck.

10. Marshon Lattimore, CB, Saints. Lattimore is coming off his best game of the season, after picking off Nick Foles twice. New Orleans needs him to be a shutdown corner.

9. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Rams. Suh hasn’t been the impact player the Rams might’ve expected, but last week, he was dominant against the Cowboys. Will he show up again this Sunday?

8. Aqib Talib, CB, Rams. Talib wasn’t available in the Rams’ loss to the Saints earlier this season. Since he’s returned from injury, the Rams pass defense has improved dramatically.

7. Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Donald is the Rams’ best hope of creating pressure on Drew Brees. But count on Brees to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible to neutralize his impact.

6. Todd Gurley, RB, Rams. C.J. Anderson’s hero turn has helped give Gurley a chance to return to full health. The Rams will need him against one of the NFL’s best run defenses.

5. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara is the type of back built to beat the Rams defense. He had three touchdowns, two of them receiving, in their last meeting.

4. Cam Jordan, DE, Saints. Pressuring Goff is the key to beating the Rams high-powered pass offense, and Jordan is better than most at bothering quarterbacks. He’s even better at disrupting the run game.

3. Andrew Whitworth, LT, Rams. At 37, Whitworth is playing out of his mind right now. If he can keep the Saints pass rush and run stoppers at bay, the Rams will have a serious shot.

2. Marcus Peters, CB, Rams. Peters was demoralized by Michael Thomas the first time around. Expect the Saints to come after him again. Sean Payton isn’t one to show mercy.

1. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. No receiver in the league was better this season, and his best game of an amazing campaign came against the Rams. They’ll focus on shutting him down, but not many teams have managed to do that this season.

Ryan Kartje is a sports features reporter, with a special focus on the NFL and college sports. He has worked for the Orange County Register since 2012, when he was hired as UCLA beat writer. His enterprise work on the rise and fall of the daily fantasy sports industry (http://www.ocregister.com/articles/industry-689093-fantasy-daily.html) was honored in 2015 with an Associated Press Sports Editors’ enterprise award in the highest circulation category. His writing has also been honored by the Football Writers Association of America and the U.S. Basketball Writers Association. A graduate of the University of Michigan, Ryan worked for the Bloomington (Ind.) Herald-Times and Fox Sports Wisconsin, before moving out west to live by the beach and eat copious amounts of burritos.