But the similarities don’t stop there. Each of those three corner outfielders smacked at least 35 homers while driving it at least 100 runs in 2017. All three were traded mid-season, making them ineligible for qualifying offers (though Upton wouldn’t have been able to receive one under the new CBA anyway, since he’s been issued a QO in a past season). All have averaged at least 550 plate appearances per season for the past three years. They even share the same first initial.

So what makes these three players different? Let’s start by taking a quick look at their fWAR.

One-Year Sample (2017)

Upton – 5.0

Martinez – 3.8

Bruce – 2.7

Three-Year Sample (2015-2017)

Martinez – 10.5

Upton – 9.9

Bruce – 3.7

Upton seems to have had the best overall 2017 season, while Martinez has been more valuable over the larger sample size. But each of these outfielders provide their value to prospective ballclubs in different ways. Here’s a breakdown of their skill sets.

Power

Isolated Power (ISO):

One-Year Sample

Martinez – .367

Upton – .268

Bruce – .254

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – .284

Bruce – .239

Upton – .230

Extra Base Hits Per Plate 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 15.13

Upton – 12.44

Bruce – 10.85

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – 12.39

Bruce – 10.67

Upton – 10.37

It’s no surprise that Martinez leads the way in the power department. Despite missing over a month of the 2017 season with an injury, he still managed to lead the group with 45 homers between the Tigers and Diamondbacks. Ever since his breakout year with the Tigers, he’s been a home run monster. While Upton was better in 2017, Bruce has an advantage over him when a three-year sample is taken into account, probably in part due to Upton’s poor start to 2016. Power is certainly not a weakness for any of these players, but Martinez is the runaway favorite in the pop department.

Plate Discipline

Strikeout Rate (K%):

One-Year Sample

Bruce – 22.5%

Martinez – 26.2%

Upton – 28.3%

Three-Year Sample

Bruce – 22.1%

Martinez – 26.1%

Upton – 27.5%

Walk Rate (BB%):

One-Year Sample

Upton – 11.7%

Martinez – 10.8%

Bruce – 9.2%

Three-Year Sample

Upton – 10.2%

Martinez – 9.3%

Bruce – 8.6%

Chase Rate on Pitches Outside the Strike Zone (O-Swing %):

One-Year Sample

Upton – 26.9%

Bruce – 31.3%

Martinez – 32.1%

Three-Year Sample

Upton – 25.7%

Bruce – 32.0%

Martinez – 33.8%

All three of these players have been pretty consistent in their plate discipline skills across the past three seasons. While Upton seems to have a lot of swing and miss in his game, he chases a much lower percentage of bad pitches than do the others. He also draws more walks. We can probably say with some certainty that Martinez has the worst plate discipline of the group.

Contact Ability

Contact Rate (Contact %):

One-Year Sample

Bruce – 73.9%

Upton – 71.7%

Martinez – 71.2%

Three-Year Sample

Bruce – 75.8%

Martinez – 72.0%

Upton – 71.2%

Bruce would appear to have the best ability to make contact. It’s interesting to see that his contact rate is down so significantly from years past; hopefully this is not a sign of decline but rather a sign of change in approach. Martinez and Upton are close enough that we can basically consider this category a toss-up between those two.

Quality of Contact

Barrels Per 100 Plate Appearances:

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 12.3

Upton – 7.9

Bruce – 7.1

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – 10.9

Upton – 7.4

Bruce – 6.4

Hard Contact Rate (Hard%):

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 49.0%

Upton – 41.0%

Bruce – 40.3%

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – 44.0%

Upton – 38.1%

Bruce – 37.9%

Average Exit Velocity, MPH (AEV):

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 90.8

Upton – 88.8

Bruce – 88.3

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – 91.2

Upton – 90.1

Bruce – 89.0

The numbers are completely consistent across categories and sample sizes; Martinez makes the highest-quality contact by a wide margin, with Upton being just a bit better than Bruce in each of these categories. It’s worth mentioning that Martinez’ 12.3 barrels per hundred plate appearances ranked second in all of baseball this year, behind only the Yankees’ Aaron Judge (12.8).

Offensive Versatility

wRC+ vs. Weak Platoon Side:

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 147

Upton – 131

Bruce – 88

Three-Year Sample

Martinez – 141

Upton – 120

Bruce – 82

Pull Rate (Pull%):

One-Year Sample

Martinez – 38.3%

Upton – 38.6%

Bruce – 44.4%

Three-Year Sample

Upton – 40.9%

Martinez – 40.1%

Bruce – 45.3%

Bruce’s value really falls off here. Martinez and Upton are both worse against righties than lefties, but still right-handers for well-above-average results. Bruce, on the other hand, is a below-average hitter against southpaws. Furthermore, Bruce is far more vulnerable to shifts than his counterparts, consistently pulling the ball far more often. Count Bruce a loser in this arena.

Baserunning

Fangraphs Baserunning Rating (BsR):

One-Year Sample

Upton – 4.0

Bruce – [-2.1]

Martinez – [-5.7]

Three-Year Sample

Upton – 10.2

Bruce – [-6.7]

Martinez [-11.2]

Statcast Sprint Speed, Feet Per Second:

One-Year Sample

Upton – 27.6

Martinez – 26.8

Bruce – 26.5

Upton really separates himself in this regard, providing positive baserunning value while reaching a peak sprint speed nearly a full mile per hour better than his competitors. It’s probably best to use the one-year sample size here, as players don’t often end up getting faster after age 30. Martinez’ baserunning value works against him, but speed doesn’t matter as much when you’re hitting 45 balls out of the park.

Fielding

Ultimate Zone Rating Runs Per 150 Innings (UZR/150):

One-Year Sample

Upton – 3.5

Bruce – 2.4

Martinez – [-14.8]

Three-Year Sample

Upton – [-0.3]

Bruce – [-4.0]

Martinez – [-7.2]

Defensive Runs Saved (DRS):

One-Year Sample

Upton – 8

Bruce – 5

Martinez – [-5]

Three-Year Sample

Upton – 17

Bruce – [-1]

Martinez – [-23]

Here, we see yet another area where Upton distinguishes himself. Upton rates as a far superior option to both Bruce and Martinez over a three-year sample size. If we’re to believe Bruce has genuinely made improvements to his glovework, this category could give his value a bit of a boost. To say Martinez is bad in the field would be an understatement. If he goes to an AL team, that might not matter quite as much. Still, his fielding skills are more likely than not to decline from this point on, and one has to wonder at what point his defense will become a liability.

While Upton and Martinez are probably obvious bets to make more than Bruce in free agency, all three players will ultimately sign lucrative multi-year contracts. Many teams are looking for corner outfielders, and each of these three outfielders provide something the others don’t. Due to his contact ability, Bruce could be a serviceable bargain signing for a team that has the ability to get on base and put the ball in play a lot. A team with a more ground ball-oriented starting staff might care slightly less about Martinez’ outfield defense. Upton’s whiff rate might not matter to teams that are more focused on scoring runs with the long ball. It will be fun to see how these factors influence the market for each of these players.

Simply another take on these 3 players……and a couple interesting facts about their career numbers.

They are almost identical in age……J-Up and JD are 4 days apart and Bruce is 4 months older.

Oddly, Martinez has only played about HALF as many games and had about half as many AB’s as Bruce and Upton (who have almost the same amount)

Martinez has the best batting average by far, Bruce has the most power by far. Upton has the most speed by far.

If he opts-out, J-Up get the biggest contract of the 3…. at around 7/168

Martinez comes in 2nd…..not too far behind……at about 6/140

Bruce doesn’t cash in like that……at all. Not sure why, but he doesn’t offer the same “security”. He limps home with a 3/54…… or a 4/77 deal…….and is lucky to get that. (Cardinals are my pick for his landing spot….because they choke on paying JD…..which they’ll regret….They Need His Bat).

I suspect Upton will leverage his opt-out for an extension of 2 more years, but I doubt he will hit open market. He’s made a lifetime of money already and has indicated he wants to work close to his home in AZ.

How does Bruce have the most power by far? His ISO is lower than Martinez. He’s behind all of them in hard contact. XBH’s too. The only one he might out homer is upton, I don’t see him out homering a healthy JD Martinez again.

Why would I? Kyle is leaps and bounds ahead of the other writers, so why bother trying to outdo his great work? I’m just saying I like the hard, cold numbers (and facts) and less opinionated analysis. We all have opinions, but not all of us get the opportunity to write for this site for others to see; that doesn’t make those opinions any more valid than yours or mine, just a lucky break or two that they received to get those positions. Kyle has tangible analytical skills, rather than just compiling posts from elsewhere on the internet.

I agree that the Cardinals need to do both of those things. But they are flush with OF’s and need a 3B desperately (don’t they?…). They also need an SP to bolster the rotation.

Most Fans would like to see JD in a Redbird’s uniform, and want to see a trade for at least a reasonably good #3 – #4 SP. Somebody who can fill the shoes of Lance Lynn (they should have inked him to an extension).

They need a closer also. There isn’t one on the roster, that can be that in 2018. Alcantara might work in ’19, but he needs to get his feet wet first. Nicasio is probably the target. Morrow should be on their radar.

My fear is that they (once again) refuse to sign a big name Free Agent…..and end up with Todd Frazier at 3B and Tyler Chatwood as the “New SP”…….and try Lyons as their closer. Yikes on all 3 of those!!!

Do the cards really need a pitcher? Waino wacha weaver flaherty Reyes and of course Carlos Martinez. That’s 6 SP options. Hudson too if you wanna drop down a tier. I don’t think that’s anywhere near a big need. A Closer and a power hitter is what they need to open up the checkbook for.

Jay Bruce actually did change his approach in late 2016. He (at the advice of the Mets) made a conscious to change to pull more fly balls, whereas before he was trying to beat the shift going the other way. It was discussed in a few Mets games at the start of this year.

Not sure if that approach change has anything to do with what the author mentioned about a drop in contact rate, but I figured I would throw it out there.

JD Martinez is really a DH or possibly he could play left field in Fenway but he is not a right fielder anymore defensively.

Upton is the most valuable of the three therefore he should get the biggest contract if he opts out but JD seems to be the sexier pick right now and ultimately may get the biggest contract. I’m guessing the Red Sox will be in on JD Martinez and look to move JBJ, which I think is a mistake, but that seems to be how DD will go this offseason to add power. Maybe DD thinks JD can play first JD shouldn’t care if he gets paid he sure isn’t a defensive outfielder anymore.

I don’t know JD I’m thinking that the DD will be in on JD Martinez. I think he helps the power outage in Boston and that’s what DD sees.

The real question is where does he play if he comes to Boston. His defense in right field is terrible and the Red Sox already have the best defensive right fielder in the game so he won’t be in right. If they envision him a left fielder then that means that JBJ is probably on the block which I don’t like.

The real question is if JD would be willing to try 1st base his bat carries him there easily and since his defense is not even passable anymore in the outfield he might be willing to try 1st.

Am I missing something? Where do those stats tell you that jay Bruce has better overall underlying stats than JD Martinez? Bruce has a slightly edge in a few categories but Martinez has a slightly larger lead in a few as well. Then you get down to total War and it’s not even close. Maybe on a cost basis Bruce would be the better value but those stats certainly don’t tell you he’s the better offensive player. Defense, sure.

I know it’s terrible when the weekend comes and your current issue of “Colliers“ didn’t arrive in the mail. But perhaps it would make you look even modestly more intelligent if you avoided articles built on modern statistics and the comments sections which follow. They seem to angry up your blood.

Unless, of course, the comment about “baseball trolls” was the batsignal calling your peers to assemble.