Close race among Nye, Rigell and Golden as election day nears

VIRGINIA BEACH — The lackluster national economy, partisan loyalty and the federal stimulus are all at play in the nationally watched congressional race between Democratic U.S. Rep. Glenn Nye, Republican Scott Rigell and Independent Kenny Golden in Hampton Roads.

The Republican challenger holds frontrunner status in the race thanks to GOP momentum nationwide. But there's plenty of unpredictability thanks to a well-known third-party candidate and uncertainty surrounding the Election Day prowess of the budding tea party movement. And a racial controversy among Virginia Beach Republicans handed Democrats a late opening.

With just over a week before voters head to the polls, the race appears to be razor close.

"If the demographics shift, couple of points here or there, it could swing the race," said Christopher Newport University politics professor Quentin Kidd.

Virginia's 2nd District is one of a handful of closely watched House races where freshman Democrats swept in with Barack Obama are hoping to stave off tough challenges. Republicans have seized the election year impetus amid backlash about federal health care reform and ballooning deficit spending.

Pollsters suggest that the GOP could win majorities in the House and even the U.S. Senate, throwing Congress to the Republicans and significantly altering Obama's policy plans for the next two years.

In order to regain control of Congress, Republicans have to knock off folks like Nye in the conservative-leaning 2nd District, which includes parts of Hampton and Norfolk and all of Virginia Beach and the Eastern Shore and is dotted with military bases.

In the 2008 election, only about 22,500 Hampton voters went to the polls in a district where more than 270,000 people cast ballots. But with political insiders expecting a slim margin of victory and low turnout, Hampton voters could prove pivotal.

Nye, a former diplomat, has carved out a conservative record in Washington. He voted against the past two federal budgets, citing excessive spending. He voted against federal health care reform and against environmental legislation that would cap carbon emissions, saying he feared that it would increase utility rates.

On the campaign trail, Nye has stressed his independent record and touted endorsements from typically conservative interest groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association.

"I'm a blue dog Democrat," Nye said. "I'm one of the ones who gets yelled at from both sides of the aisle."

But Rigell has worked to link Nye to the hip of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, highlighting Washington Post research that found Nye votes with the leadership 83 percent of the time. The same research put Nye as the 10th most independent House Democrat.

Thanks to high unemployment, the economy has taken center stage. Golden has cast himself as the most experienced candidate, especially when it comes to the military and federal spending, thanks to his family's deep Navy roots.

Rigell, a former Marine turned car salesman, has stressed his business acumen. Rigell owns Freedom Automotive and entered the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce hall of fame this year.

"I've been reading financial statements for 30 years," Rigell says.

On the economy, Rigell faults Nye and fellow Democrats for the federal stimulus bill, which he considers a wasteful effort that didn't save or create jobs.

Rigell said it would have been unfair to customers and employees to turn down the program that offered buyers rebates to trade in old autos for new fuel-efficient models.

In the past week the race was shaken up when a pair of racist e-mails linked to the leadership of the Virginia Beach Republican Party surfaced. Rigell denounced both e-mails, called for the resignation of the chairman of the city party and questioned the timing of the revelations as "an attempt to manipulate the outcome of the election."

But the e-mails have provided fodder for Democrats eager to whip up excitement among a lethargic base. The e-mails could help boost turnout among young voters and African-Americans — two blocs that traditionally vote Democrat, but show up in poor numbers.

The race also provides an early litmus test on the tea party movement. The leaders of the Hampton Roads Tea Party opposed Rigell during a crowded spring primary, citing his $1,000 donation to Obama and his dealership's support for a regional tax increase to raise money for transportation projects.

Rigell points out that he gave more campaign cash to Mitt Romney and John McCain and said he supported the "yes campaign" in 2001 because he didn't see any other solutions for transportation.

Over the summer the two sides mended fences, and in late August, Rigell signed a tea party pledge to work to repeal health care reform, fight tax increases and push for an audit of the Federal Reserve. It remains unclear how anti-establishment, rank and file members of the tea party will react on Election Day.