A welcome step in the right direction. That's how employment minister Chris Grayling described the last jobless figures before the coalition faces its first big electoral test, and on the face of it he was right to feel a little chuffed.

Some labour market analysts had predicted under-25 unemployment would nudge above the politically sensitive 1 million mark in February, but the total was slightly down. Even better, an extra 143,000 people were employed between December and February – 140,000 full-time.

All in all, the figures provide the government with quite a story to tell: that the private sector is capable of taking up the slack as the axe falls on the public sector. This narrative should get ministers through the coming weeks, but it is debatable that it will last much longer.

The respite on youth unemployment is likely to be short-lived. There has been a structural shift in the labour market so employment among under-25s in the past three years has fallen almost 8% while employment for those above retirement age has risen by almost a third. Employers are saying to young jobseekers: "We don't want you, we want your gran."

The data also showed a sharp rise in the number of people doing more than one job, especially among men. People normally only start double-jobbing when their incomes are squeezed, which is what has been happening.

The earnings data showed take-home pay up by just over 2% on a year ago at a time when prices are up 4%-5%. Traditionally, a fall in real incomes leads to weak consumer spending and sluggish job creation – and there does seem to have been a recent slowdown.

Add that trend to the advent of the 2011/12 spending cuts and it is not hard to see why ministers remain cautious about the jobs outlook. Wednesday was a step in the right direction, but the pattern for the year could be one step forward, two steps back.