5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell2 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Intermediate/Advanced swell1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell

Congrats to Greg Long - Wins the Eddie! Swell #5 to Start Fading in Hawaii - Ramping Up in California

New Swell Classification Guidelines (Winter)

Significant:Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead). Summer - Head high or better. Advanced:Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft) Summer - Chest to head high.Intermediate:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft). Summer - Waist to chest high. Impulse/Windswell:Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs. Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

PACIFIC OVERVIEWOn Tuesday (12/8) North and Central California was getting the first little longer period energy from Storm #5 generate rare waves in the 1.5 times overhead range early and on the way up with some local windswell in the mix too. Southern California still in the near flat range with occasional waist high sets up north with northwest winds on ti early and surf smaller (thigh high down south) but cleaner. Hawaii's North Shore was getting solid energy from Storm #5 with the Eddie running and waves right at 20 ft Hawaiian with reasonably clean conditions early. The East Shore was getting wrap around energy from the northwest with waves double overhead at top spots. The South Shore was asleep for the winter.

The forecast for North and Central CA is for Swell #5 to peak out overnight Tuesday and be heading down on Wednesday from 8-9 ft @ 16-17 secs with triple overhead faces early and offshore winds. A little fade is forecast after that with rain and southeast winds supposedly moving in, but that changes with each new run of the models. Still 8 ft @ 16 sec swell could be expected. Swell dropping out on Friday from 4 ft overhead down to 1 ft overhead on Saturday. Windswell on Sunday. Southern California is to see a smaller version of this swell, but positioned a little better in the swell window. Swell #5 arrives for Wednesday AM pushing near double overhead at better breaks, holding at 3 ft overhead on Thursday and down to 1 ft overhead on Friday. Chest high leftovers forecast Saturday and knee to thigh high on Sunday. The North Shore of Hawaii is to see continued size from Swell #5, with waves 18 ft on Wednesday and clean. 11-12 ft faces expected on Thursday fading to 2-3 ft overhead on Friday. Minor reinforcing energy continues Sat at 4 ft overhead dropping from 2 ft overhead on Sunday. The East Shore is to have no easterly windswell. The South Shore is in hibernation for the winter.

Longterm the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is to slowly fade from the Active Phase but should continue to gently support storm development into 12/21. After swell from Storm #5 hits, things are to quiet down some. A weaker gale is forecast pushing from the dateline into the Gulf of Alaska Wed-Sat (12/12) with 26 ft seas, but nothing to get too excited about. Another broader but still generally weak gale is forecast for the Central Gulf Sun-Tues pushing energy towards both Hawaii and Ca, but only modestly so. Regardless, no shortage of surf is expected, but nothing over the top either.

SHORT- TERM FORECASTCurrent marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

NorthPacific

OverviewOn Tuesday (12/8) the North Pacific jetstream has a good pulse of 150 kt winds pushing east over the dateline to a point north of Hawaii and feeding into a good trough there that was supporting storm development (Storm #5 specifically). The jet split about 700 nmiles off the Central CA coast with the north branch pushing up into Western Alaska with the southern branch tracking over Pt Conception CA. Over the next 72 hrs the Hawaiian trough is to push east and moderate, reaching the California coast on Thursday and likely ushering in a bout of rain and southern winds. At that time the entire jet is to be running flat on the 35N latitude, very far south indeed and typical of El Nino. Beyond 72 hours a consolidated flow is to hold with a new weak trough developing just north of Hawaii on Sunday (12/13) pushing east with a bit of a ridge developing over California. Decent support for gale development. And off to the west, a new pocket of 150 kts winds is to be building just off Japan, perhaps signaling another burst of gale activity further out.

At the surface on Tuesday (12/8) the remnants of Storm #5 (see details below) were fading 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds still 35 kts but expected to be gone quickly. A new gale was trying to build just west of the dateline with winds modeled at 35 kts. Weak high pressure was just over the California and above Hawaii, but weak in both cases. A front from the remnants of Storm #5 was mid-way between Hawaii and CA pushing east. Over the next 72 hours the new gale west of the dateline is to continue east with 35-40 kts west winds forecast at 37N 170E Tuesday evening with 28 ft seas at 38N 168E pushing east over the dateline Wednesday (12/9) evening with 35-40 kts west winds at 42N 170W with 23 ft seas at 37N 173W. This fetch is to be aimed well at Hawaii down the 305-312 degree great circle paths. The gale is to fade some on Thursday (12/10) with 35 kt west winds covering less area but consolidating with 26 ft sea at 40N 161W late. The gale is to stall near there on Friday with 35-40 kt west winds at 42N 158W generating 28 ft seas at 42N 156W pushing towards NCal up the 292 degree path but mostly bypassing Hawaii. This system to dissolve after that. Possible smaller but decent 15-16 sec period swell could result for Hawaii by the weekend and the US West Coast after that if this goes as forecast.

Storm #5 - The 'Big One' For Hawaii
Energy from Typhoon Nida was just off the coast of Japan on Thursday (12/3) heading east, and starting to develop.

A tropically fueled storm started building while tracking east off Japan on Friday AM (2/4) with 55 kts winds building at 38N 158E aimed mostly south, pushing east and reaching 37N 171E in the evening with 50-55 kts winds aimed pretty well to the east, or up the 310 degree path to Hawaii and 35 degrees south of the 290 degree path to North CA.

This storm hit the dateline Saturday AM (12/5) with 60-65 kt west and northwest winds at 38N 173W aimed right down the 325 degree path to Hawaii and 25 degrees south of the 289 degree path to NCal. Seas were on the increase, with winds getting good traction on the oceans surface thanks to Storm #4 in the same area just 36 hours earlier. Seas were modeled at 40 ft over a small area at 38N 178W. This was right on track with modeled output even 3 days earlier. By Saturday evening 60-65 kt west winds were taking over aimed well at North CA at 40N 165W aimed down the 288 degree path and also well at Southern CA down the 293 degree path. 45 ft seas covered a solid area at 37N 170W pushing well to the east. The Jason-1 satellite made a reasonably good pass over the western edge of the fetch on Saturday evening and confirmed seas at 38.5 ft (15 reading average) with one peak reading to 41.7 ft where the models suggested 38-39 ft seas. The models were right on track.

Sunday AM (12/6) things were starting to decay a bit, but still a large area of 50 kts west-northwest winds was modeled holding at 40-45 N 175W blowing over the exact same area of water aimed well up the 292 degree path to NCal and the 292-300 degree path to SCal and 30 degree east of the 335 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled holding at 45 ft at 37N 163W. This fetch is to hold ground but fade a little in areal coverage in the evening (45 kts) at 45N 175W, but still reasonably impressive. 38 ft seas to cover a huge area at 41N 173W.

Monday AM (12/7) winds to be fading from 35 kts up at 45N 175W (335 degs Hawaii, 296 NCal, 301 SCal). 37 ft seas forecast at 40N 169W, again in the huge areal category. Seas fading in the evening from 30 ft from previous days fetch at 37N 164W.

This system is developing close to expectations, or at least the first pulse of the storm is. But a second pulse previously forecast is now forecast to not be nearly as strong. Regardless 36 hours of fetch 55 kts or greater has occurred with another 36 hours of lesser fetch (40-45 kts) is forecast all covering a pretty good sized area. The issue is the QuikSCAT satellite, the one that provides wind speed confirmation, died right before Thanksgiving, and is likely gone for good. We'll have to wait for a new satellite to be launched. This is a major setback in that there is no way way now to confirm what is going on inside any storms. Fortunately the Jason-1 satellite is still available to provide seas height confirmation. At this time significant class swell is forecast for Hawaii and California, with Hawaii doing the best due to their closer proximity to the storms center (936-1908 nmiles) versus CA (1748-2592 nmiles). Large swell is already in the water steaming towards both locals with more to follow. Historically this is not to be anything completely out of the ordinary, especially for the the US West Coast, though Hawaii, with no solid swells for the past 3 years, will certainly get a wake up call. Though size may not be huge on the US West Coast, it will make up for it in pure thickness with very long and unrelenting lines forecast. Virtual fetch is expected to be playing a good part in the US West Coast forecast too, with higher than normal number of waves per set in the 17 up to 20 sec frequencies.

California Nearshore ForecastOn Tuesday (12/8) weak high pressure at 1018 mbs was lingering over the California coast with high pressure at 1030 mbs over British Columbia. Calm winds were in effect. A light east flow is expected on Wednesday possibly turning southeast later as a front associated with the remnants of Storm #5 push closer to the coast. But latest modeled data suggests that front might be weakening, with the southeast wind not as likely as previous forecast (holding at east). Southern CA to remain protected with light winds, though northwest winds at 15 kts are forecast over the Channel Islands. On Thursday the front is to finally push inland over Central CA with southeast winds and rain developing north of Pt Conception and continuing in sputtered fashion Friday. even some light rain is projected in S California. Finally a full surge of winter like low pressure is to push onshore over the entire state Saturday (12/12) with heavier rain into San Diego and up to Oregon, then drying out down south and winds fading Sunday (though Monterey Bay northward might still see some rain). A larger gale is forecast building right behind though, impacting the extreme north end of the state Monday with south wind at 30 kts and rain easing down to Pt Reyes by Tuesday (12/15) and likely further south beyond. SCal to remain well protected (at least initially) by high pressure.

TropicsThe MJO is in the last portion of the Active Phase in the Pacific, net tropical activity is expected to slowly diminish through 12/18.

No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

SouthPacific

Overview
At the surface no swell producing fetch was occurring and none is forecast for the next 72 hours.

LONG-TERM FORECASTMarine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

NorthPacific

Beyond 72 hrs another modest but broad gale is to start building north of Hawaii on Saturday (12/12) evening with 35-40 kts northwest winds initially targeting the Islands. Sunday (12/13) additional 35-40 kt west and northwest winds are to start building in areal coverage aimed at both the Islands and the US West coast, in pretty close proximity to Hawaii and only a bit further away from the mainland. 23 ft seas forecast building near 34N 165W aimed best at Hawaii. High pressure is to be over California, likely providing a bit of a deflecting barrier there. This system is to hold steady in terms of strength through Monday (12/14) with up to 26 ft seas building at 38N 150W targeting California well with sideband energy for the Islands. This system to make only limited eastward progress Tuesday and loose a little strength. A possible longer run of modest swell could result for both the Islands and the mainland.

MJO/ENSO Update (reference): As of Tuesday (12/8) the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) was in the Active Phase supporting the continued evolution of El Nino. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index was in the negative range with the Daily SOI index up some to -7.89 (almost 26 consecutive days in a row). The 30 day average was down to -8.39 while the 90 average was down some to -7.40. This continues looking more like a legitimate El Nino based solely on the SOI.

Wind anomalies at the 850 mb level (approx 5000 ft up) as defined by models continued indicating a weakening but broad area of westerly anomalies consistent with the Active Phase covering the West Pacific reaching over the dateline and pushing into the East Pacific from there. The Active Phase is to continue pushing east reaching into the Eastern Pacific on 12/12 and tracking into Central America while still holding ground on the dateline, then slowly dissipating through 12/17. A weak version of the Inactive Phase is forecast trying to get a toes into the West Pacific not even to New Guinea on 12/22, then dissipating with neutral conditions after that. This Active Phase episode is expected to increase storm activity in the North Pacific through 12/12.

Sea Surface Temp anomaly data (12/7) indicates that warmer than normal waters are consolidated on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and even west of there, and starting to rebuild some along the Baja coast, but not much. The previous lack of a real Kelvin Wave was not helping that situation. But with a new strong Kelvin Wave (see below) erupting along the coast, there is some anticipation that warmer waters might build to the north. From an El Nino perspective, it make no real difference though. The expanse of the warmer waters continues to hold on equator, covering slightly more area and filling in with the warmest waters covering greater area now. Overall the warm water signature remains non-exceptional, but clearly in the moderate El Nino category and building very slowly but steadily.

Of interest, the water temp anomaly data provided by NOAA/NESDIS (satellite based) versus the TAO/TRITON buoy array, present different depictations of the same event. The TAO array suggests max heating is occurring on the dateline, with temps easing as one tracks east, while the satellite based data from NOAA presents an analysis of continuous warm waters over the length of the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. The difference is in how the data is collected (buoys at fixed points versus a satellite view of the entire playing field). We're siding with the satellite view not because it is more favorable, but because we believe it more accurately represents reality. The buoy arrays strength is in waters temps at depth (i.e. for detecting Kelvin Waves). This is exactly what the array was built to detect. The satellite view cannot do that. Likewise, the satellite has far superior coverage.

Below the surface on the equator things continue to look favorable. A steady flow of warmer than normal subsurface water continues tracking from the West Pacific (150 m below the surface) under the dateline and breaking the surface near Central America as it has for months now. As of 12/8 the Kelvin Wave we've been tracking with a core of 6 deg warmer than normal sub-surface water was impacting the Ecuador coast. This should fuel an increase in the warm water surface pool as it continue impacting the coast there building and eventually tracking back west on the equator driven by trades. This Kelvin Wave first appeared under the dateline on 9/17 and tracked steadily east through 12/1 and was the result of a prolonged persistent westerly surface wind flow that had been in-place west of the dateline from 9/8 and continued into 11/5.

Over the Equatorial Pacific and consistent with the Active Phase, surface winds started to move anomalously from the west extending the whole way from Indonesia to a point south of Hawaii, with weak real west winds confirmed in the far West Pacific. A new Westerly Wind Burst started to develop on 11/28 and was very obvious on 11/30 with fully blowing west winds near 165E, and strong. This Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) continued on 12/2 through 12/8 with a most solid area of west winds pushing almost to the dateline. On 12/6 strong west anomalies pushed to 170W and held on 12/8. This situation could help to form yet another Kelvin Wave which would be good. The Kelvin Wave currently hitting Ecuador was formed from a prolonged bout and multiple pulses of westerly winds and westerly anomalies that occurred from 9/8 through 11/2. At one point towards it's end the anomalies reached the whole way from the West Pacific to almost Ecuador. Embedded in that run were Typhoons Dujuan, Choi-Wan, Parma, Melor and Nepartak. All this helped to deepen the surface warm pool in the tropical Eastern Pacific. Typhoon Nida was associated with the most recent WWB.

El Nino is expected to affect the global atmospheric weather pattern at least through Spring of next year if not into the middle of summer. All data suggests this will not be a strong El Nino, more likely a moderate one. NOAA's last update (11/5) forecasts the same outcome, though hints at some uncertainty. In short, all the best models aren't exactly sure how this is going to play out. Regardless a solid accumulation of warm water in the equatorial East Pacific is evidence in-favor of continued development. As long as there continues to be WWB's (as there obviously is), then warm water will be migrating east, and the warm water pattern will hold if not build, and the atmosphere above it will respond in-kind to the change (towards El Nino). At this point there is no evidence to suggest this El Nino will stall or dissipate. The only remaining question is whether it will hold, or grow. And current data indicates that the warm pool will hold if not slowly build. And historically it is already larger and strong than any other in the past 12 years.

The current El Nino is gaining strength, with a 2 degree water temp anomaly in the tropical East Pacific the likely outcome. Coverage is pretty solid for this event, but the lack of really high water temp anomalies will likely limit it's strength. Strong El Ninos bring lot's of bad weather to the US West Coast, along with the potential for storm and swell enhancement. A moderate El Nino provides storm and swell enhancement, a gentle but steady push/momentum in-favor of storm development rather than the manic frenzy of a strong El Nino, but without all the weather associated with a strong event. So in many ways a moderate El Nino is more favorable from a surf perspective. As of right now things remain better than anything the Pacific has seen in the past 12 years regarding anomalous sea surface temperatures, besting anything since the big El Nino of 1997. That is very good news. But the lack of anomalous water temps exceeding 3 degrees and an unremarkable SOI suggests a modest El Nino at best. Still, it should be enough to provide storm enhancement, and a better than average winter surf season for the North Pacific, and still likely better than anything in the past 10 years. Better yet, if it's not too strong (as this event appears to be) perhaps it will not degrade into La Nina the year after (which typically happens after stronger El Ninos), but hold in some mild El Nino like state for several years in a row. This would be an even better outcome.

Interview With Stormsurf: The crew at SurfScience.comworked with Stormsurf on a feature about why surfers should be able to read wave charts themselves. They are firm believers that a little learning can go a long way to help your surfing. This is a great article to help convince your friends that they can benefit from being able to read the data themsleves rather than just relying on the forecasts of others. See the full thing here: Create Your Own Surf Forecast with Stormsurf

Mavericks - Everest of the Sea & Longboard Vineyards: Come late October Sonoma County will not only welcome a new crop of world class wines, but the award winning photography of some of Action Sports best lensmen. “ Mavericks – Everest of the Seas” comes alive again just in time to set the stage for another epic Big Wave Season. Mix two of Northern California's finest institutions – big wave surfing and the wine country – and you have what promises to be an amazing weekend at the Longboard Vineyards Tasting Room in Healdsburg
October 23 – 25.

Relive heroic battles between man and wave as seen through the eyes of the cutting-edge photojournalists who risk life and limb to document the wave's intense man-against-the-sea drama and obsessive lifestyle of Maverick's elite riders. Oded Shakked, a longtime surfer who founded Longboard Vineyards, will be unveiling his latest release, The Peter Mel/Mavericks Cabernet Sauvignon. This signature wine will be blended by not only Shakked but guest vintner, Peter Mel. Mel, one of the most respected names in Big Wave Surfing is known as perhaps the most skillful surfer ever to ride Mavericks. The famed spot off the Half Moon Bay. In October of 1998 he was whipped into to what is now considered the biggest wave ever ridden… Mel along with the featured photographers, surfboard shapers and wine makers will be on hand for the Friday night reception. The reception will begin at 5pm and run until roughly 9pm.

Longboard Vineyard has always had a soft spot for surfers. It's a place where you can hangout at a redwood-surfboard bar, or sample one
of its award winning wines while kicking back on a comfortable sofa watching surf movies. For this harvest weekend event Shakked has
enlisted “Mavericks: Everest of the Seas,” the heralded collection of Mavericks surf photography from Frank Quirarte, Doug Acton, Seth
Migdail and Ed Grant.

“Everest of the Seas” first made its debut recently at the Coastal Arts League Gallery in Half Moon Bay, drawing large crowds and an
enthusiastic response. It just finished a one-month highly successful run at San Francisco's world class Museum and Gallery, SFMOMA.“Everyone who sees the exhibit is just blown away,” said Grant, the curator of the Coastal Arts League Gallery. “Both surfers and non-surfers can't help but get caught up in the energy and stoke that surrounds Maverick's, the surfers and photographers who put it on the
line every time they go out there.”

The event also represents a high point in the career of Oded Shakked, who was born in Israel and grew up near a beach just north of Tel
Aviv. Immersed in surfing from the start, he made several trips around Europe's Atlantic coast while discovering, to his delight, that “it
was easier, cheaper and safer to drink good red wine than bottled water.” His twin loves of surfing and wine brought him to California,
where he studied winemaking at UC Davis and became enamored with the people, climate and rich soil of Sonoma County. He founded Longboard Vineyards with the motto “Wine, waves and soul,” making it a highly unique fixture in wine country.

The October 23-25 weekend will also feature the sale of surfboards and memorabilia, along with Acton's acclaimed book, “Inside Maverick's.”
Admission is free. Opening reception sponsored by Maverick Events and Longboard Vineyards

The Kelly Slater Project - A fundraiser is scheduled for Aug 29th at the Cocoa Beach Country Club to help raise funds for both the Kelly Slater Project and the Central Florida Animal Reserve. A Casino night is planned including a silent auction and raffle. Sponsors are also needed. Learn more about these projects at : http://www.thekellyslaterproject.com/

Rebuild Jeff Clark: Jeff Clark the first pioneer of Mavericks, recently underwent hip resurfacing surgery due to severe pain from deterioration of his hip. Needless to say the procedure is very expensive and his insurance only covers tiny portion of the bill. If you're interested in learning about the procedure or would like to donate to help Jeff out, please take a look here: http://www.rebuildjeffclark.blogspot.com/

Shark Video: Our friend Curt Myers of Powerlines productions shot this footage of 2 great whites munching on a whale carcass off Devils Slide (south of San Francisco) on Thursday. Kind of interesting to watch. Check it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8I4rZYEZMWQ (Fixed link)

Wave Model Upgrade Status Report: At this point we believe the installation of the new wave models is complete, with no problems being reported, the server stabilizing and the much requested return of the old style hemispheric Surf Height models now operational (again) and running side-by-side along the new ones. We thank you for your patience and input as we went though this process. Your feedback helps guide our efforts and ultimately results in a better product for everyone. Now we're off to start providing better menus to some wave model products most of you probably haven't uncovered yet (site specific graph and text forecasts), updateing the wave model FAQs and then upgrading the Weather Models.

New Wave Model Facts: Click HERE to read more about the new wave models. Important info.

Stormsurf Wave Models Updated: On Friday (2/6) we installed the latest upgrade to our wavemodels. A year in the works, this upgrade essentially is a total re-write of every wave model product we produce. They now take advantage of the new Version 3 of the Wavewatch wavemodel. This version runs at a much higher resolution, specifically 0.0 X 0.5 degrees for the global grib with local products at 0.1667 X 0.1667 degrees, and it uses the hi-res GFS model for wind speeds. And of even more interest, the model now identifies primary swell and windwave variables. As such we now have new model images which displays this data. Also we've included out special 3D topographic land masks into all models. In all it makes for a radical step forward in wave model technology. We'll be upgrading minor components (FAQ, new menu pages etc) for a few weeks to come, but all the basics are available for your use now. Check it out here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_wam.html

Stormsurf Video: Just for fun - here's a clip about Stormsurf that ran on Bay Area TV a while back. Thought you might enjoy it: http://vimeo.com/2319455

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Stormsurf Google Gadget- Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml