Fantasy Football: Week 12 Matchup Breakdown

Eli Manning has disappointed fantasy owners this season.Credit
Tim Clayton for The New York Times

Eli Manning, we just can’t quit you.

Despite calling off our fantasy relationship with the consistently frustrating Manning after Week 10, we’ve decided to give him one more chance, because everyone deserves a second chance, or sometimes seven.

Manning opened the 2013 N.F.L. season with a bang, with 450 passing yards and 4 touchdowns against the rival Dallas Cowboys. He has averaged just 11 fantasy points per game since. But he is quietly coming off his best game since the opener (71.4 completion percentage, 279 yards and a touchdown versus Green Bay), and the Cowboys have allowed 261 standard fantasy points through the air this year, the most in fantasy football.

In a crucial game for the red-hot Giants, we expect Manning, who has thrown just two interceptions in his last four games, to come through, as he often has against the Cowboys.

Tom Brady (NE) vs. Denver –The fantasy numbers do not reflect it, but Brady played very well against a stout Carolina defense on Monday, completing 72 percent of his 40 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown. With his full receiving corps finally healthy, Brady can confidently be started as a QB1 again, and that definitely means this week against the N.F.L.'s 28th-ranked pass defense, which has allowed 21 fantasy points a game to opposing quarterbacks this year.

Mike Glennon (TB) vs. Detroit –Glennon has averaged 253 yards and 2 touchdowns in the three favorable matchups he has faced this year (Atlanta twice and Philadelphia). Given that the Lions have surrendered 14 passing touchdowns and 1,549 passing yards over their last five games, he’s worth considering this week.

Scott Tolzien (GB) vs. Minnesota – There were good and bad in Tolzien’s first N.F.L. start, against the Giants, as he threw for 339 yards to go with a hat trick of ugly interceptions. A home game against the N.F.L.'s third-worst passing defense, which has held an opposing passer to fewer than 20 fantasy points just twice this season, could yield serviceable QB2-like results.

Case Keenum (HOU) vs. Jacksonville –Keenum is wisely back in the saddle as the Texans’ starting quarterback, and the timing could not be better with the Jaguars on deck (second-best QB matchup, 25 F.P.P.G.). Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer have all posted at least 25 points against them in the last three weeks.

Running Back

Andre Brown (NYG) vs. Dallas – Dallas, which has given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, has also allowed the most points on the ground (23 F.P.P.G.). Brown and his owners will have to deal with Brandon Jacobs’s stealing goal-line carries on a regular basis, but that should not prevent Brown from turning in a big fantasy day.

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Scott Tolzein showed some promise in his N.F.L. debut.Credit
Tim Clayton for The New York Times

Frank Gore (SF) vs. Washington – Gore’s numbers in recent weeks are raising some red flags. He has not eclipsed 100 yards since Week 6 and had just 13 carries for 48 yards in last week’s favorable matchup with the Saints. However, he’ll be nearly impossible to sit against a Redskins defense that has held an opposing runner to fewer than 19 fantasy points just three times this year (second-best RB matchup).

Eddie Lacy (GB) vs. Minnesota –The Vikings are coming off a thrashing from Marshawn Lynch (three TDs), which is typical for them, given that they have yielded at least 14 fantasy points to a running back in 8 of the 10 games they have played this season (fifth-best RB matchup, 21 F.P.P.G.).

Rashad Jennings (OAK) vs. Tennessee –A down week from Jennings against the Texans was a legitimate fear without Terrelle Pryor behind center, but that was not the case as he shredded them for 150 yards and a touchdown. Another 20-plus touches against the Titans (sixth-best RB matchup) are to be expected with starter Darren McFadden expected to miss another game.

Jordy Nelson (GB) vs. Minnesota –Nelson’s 117 yards on nine targets against the Giants proved he can still be a fantasy asset without Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. More often than not, the Vikings have been good to opposing receivers (25 F.P.P.G., eighth-best WR matchup), as Nelson found out for himself in Week 8 (123 yards, 2 TDs).

Nate Burleson (DET) vs. Tampa Bay –Harry Douglas, with 134 yards and a touchdown in Week 11, was the most recent slot man to take advantage of this defense, just like Miami’s Rishard Matthews in Week 10 and Seattle’s Doug Baldwin in Week 9. Burleson is expected to return this week and could be serviceable in deeper leagues; he was averaging 79 yards per game before his injury.

Vincent Jackson (TB) vs. Detroit –The Lions’ 30th-ranked pass defense has coughed up consecutive 25-point fantasy games to Chicago’s Brandon Marshall and Pittsburgh’s Antonio Brown over the last two weeks, and has surrendered an average of 36 fantasy points to receivers over the last five games.

Marques Colston (NO) vs. Atlanta –A Week 9 rest seems to have done wonders for this once-fading fantasy option; he has 12 catches, 187 yards and a touchdown since. This week, he gets an Atlanta unit that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year.

Victor Cruz (NYG) vs. Dallas –Cruz obliterated the Cowboys’ secondary in the season opener to the tune of 118 yards and 3 TDs. The Cowboys have permitted the 10th-most points to the position this year.

Tight End

Coby Fleener (IND) vs. Arizona –Fleener had a career-high eight catches for 107 yards last week against the Titans, and he is by far the best option in the Colts’ passing game outside of T.Y. Hilton. Fantasy’s best TE matchup is up next (14 F.P.P.G.).

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Victor Cruz scored three touchdowns the last time he faced the Cowboys.Credit
Barton Silverman/The New York Times

Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. Miami – Olsen has reached the end zone in three of his last four games, and he will once again be a solid candidate to lead the team in targets with Steve Smith facing another tough defender in Brent Grimes. Miami has consistently struggled to contain the position this year, yielding the sixth-most yards (655) and the fourth-most touchdowns (seven).

Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. New Orleans –Ryan’s fantasy average in his five games with Julio Jones is 23.4. In the five games without him, it’s 15.8. The Saints are the third-worst matchup for quarterbacks, with just 12 F.P.P.G. allowed over the last five weeks, and they have not allowed more than one touchdown per game to the position since Week 4.

Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Kansas City – Rivers has been in a rut after his hot start to the season, with six touchdowns in his last five games. His best receiver, Keenan Allen, is banged up, which will not help Rivers’s chances against a Kansas City defense that just held Peyton Manning to one touchdown in Week 11 (seventh-worst QB matchup).

Robert Griffin III (WAS) vs. San Francisco –RGIII has been a slow starter in many games this season, often needing a full half to get warmed up. Unfortunately for him, the 49ers have allowed just two second-half passing touchdowns over their last five games and have held Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Chad Henne to a 12-point average over the last three weeks.

Cam Newton (CAR) vs. Miami – It’s a tough matchup for sure, because the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, but Newton is on a roll, coming off of his run-happy, three-touchdown performance, so he needs to be in your lineup.

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) vs. Carolina – The Panthers haven’t allowed a multi-touchdown day to the position in 2013, although one could argue that would not still be the case if Rob Gronkowski were treated a little bit differently in the back of the end zone in the final seconds of last Monday night’s game. Regardless, Carolina is the toughest matchup a quarterback can have.

Running Back

Trent Richardson (IND) vs. Arizona – In one of the easier calls of Week 12, we have the colossal fantasy disappointment Richardson against the Cardinals, who are the stingiest running back matchup in all of fantasy football. Donald Brown has also continued to outplay Richardson, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts earning more snaps.

Ray Rice (BAL) vs. Jets –Rice looked good against the Bears last week, but what running back hasn’t this year (seventh-best RB matchup)? Also, if you look closer at the numbers from Week 11, outside of his one 47-yard run, he averaged just 3.5 Y.P.C. The Jets are the top-ranked rushing defense in the N.F.L., allowing 2.9 yards per carry.

Le’Veon Bell (PIT) vs. Cleveland –Bell has averaged just 2.3 yards a tote over last two games and will face a top-10 run defense in the Browns, who have not allowed a touchdown on the ground over the last three weeks. The good news is that Bell gets enough carries each week to keep him in the RB2 conversation.

Ryan Mathews (SD) vs. Kansas City – Mathews had a great game last week against the Dolphins, averaging 6.7 yards per carry on his way to 127 rushing yards. But it’s going to get much tougher against the Chiefs, who have limited opposing featured backs to 58.6 yards per game and just one touchdown this year.

Lamar Miller (MIA) vs. Carolina –The Dolphins continue to roll with a timeshare in the backfield, and last week Miller was again on the wrong side of it, with just six total touches. Neither Miller nor Daniel Thomas is worth counting on against the N.F.L.'s third-best run defense, which allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points on a weekly basis this year.

Wide Receiver

Denarius Moore (OAK) vs. Tennessee – Moore is dealing with a shoulder injury, and while he managed to find the end zone last week for the first time since Week 6, it came on only two catches for 11 yards. The Titans have not permitted a double-digit fantasy day, let alone a touchdown, to an opposing receiver since Week 2.

Mike Wallace (MIA) vs. Carolina– Wallace still has just one touchdown this year, and he has not topped 10 standard fantasy points in a game since Week 5 against Baltimore. Bet on him not finding the end zone once again: The Panthers have not permitted a receiver to score since Week 2 and are the second-worst matchup for receivers over all.

Steve Smith (CAR) vs. Miami – It’s been tough to count on Smith this year; he’s topped double digits in fantasy points only twice. The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers (15 F.P.P.G.), not to mention one receiving touchdown.

Terrence Williams (DAL) vs. Giants –Despite scoring twice in his last three games, Williams has just five catches for 118 yards, and Miles Austin is set to return this week. The Giants have been stingy against the pass recently, allowing about 200 receiving yards per game and no touchdowns over the last four weeks.

Tight End

Antonio Gates (SD) vs. Kansas City – Gates finally ended his seven-game touchdown drought in Week 11, but it’ll be tough for him to keep the momentum going against the Chiefs, who are the toughest matchup a tight end can have.

Martellus Bennett (CHI) vs. St. Louis – After a monster Week 2, Bennett has not topped 10 points in a game and has just 9 points in his last three combined. The Rams should have no problem keeping that trend going; they are the third-toughest matchup for tight ends.