While fans (and a lot of front office executives) around the league have enjoyed the Lakers stumbles last season, we all know the plan. And it’s a very feasible one.

The Lakers will muddle through this season then rebuild on the fly through free agency in the summer of 2014 when virtually everybody comes off the books. They can attack free agency hard and sign a couple max players. They have reportedly targeted LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony.

Except, the Lakers don’t have quite as much cap space as everyone thinks. Depending on what they do it could be more like $36 million.

The Lakers go into next summer with two contracts on the books — Steve Nash with $9.7 million and Robert Sacre at $915,243. Also, Nick Young could stick around as he has a $1.2 million option, but it is more likely he opts out to try and find a longer deal. So we’ll leave Young out of this.

But the Lakers don’t just have the difference between the $10.6 in guaranteed salary and the $62 million to spend.

Meet the cap hold — a placeholder salary that counts against what you can spend based on the value of what you could pay your free agents to come back (also that could include holds for draft picks and minimum contract players yet to be named to get you to a dozen roster spots). In the Lakers case there are cap holds for Kobe Bryant (almost $32 million), Pau Gasol ($20 million), Steve Blake ($7.6 million) and on down the line. With all their cap holds in place the Lakers are at $86 million, way over the cap and luxury tax line, they couldn’t sign anybody.

Most likely the Lakers will trade Gasol during the season or, when the time, comes, the Lakers will renounce their rights to every free agent on their roster not named Kobe. They will create cap space because when they renounce Gasol or anyone else he gets replaced by a $507,336 minimum salary hold. There also will be a salary hold for the Lakers first round pick next summer, the size of which depends on the draft spot but likely is upwards of $1 million, close to $1.5 million.

In Kobe’s case, I expect the Lakers will re-sign him to a discounted deal, much as Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett did for their teams. While Kobe has said he doesn’t want a pay cut, I think that was negotiations and he’ll return for around $10 million.

So where does that leave the Lakers: Kobe at $10 million, Nash at $9.7 million, a draft pick around $1 million, Sacre at $915,243, and eight minimum salary cap holds, your grand total is around $26 million on the books.

Which leaves the Lakers around $36 million in cap space in the summer of 2014.

LeBron’s max is going to be about $20 million for the first year, ‘Melo’s is more like $23. The Lakers can’t swing them both at the max (and have fun trying to convince ‘Melo to take a pay cut). As I have said before, I doubt LeBron or Anthony bolt their respective teams, but consider that a fun exercise in the limits of what the Lakers can do. Remember, the Lakers want to be under the tax threshold line in the 2014-15 season to avoid the repeater tax.

Things could be different — the Lakers could waive Nash and use the stretch provision, for one, to get even more cap space. The Lakers could make a mid-season trade for star under contract (using Gasol and pieces as the bait) and have even less room. There are endless scenarios.

Most observers around the league expect the Lakers to bounce back fast — players want to be in Los Angeles and play for a storied franchise. But the new CBA makes the Lakers style of reloading far more difficult; they are going to have to get some players to come to them at a discount.

The goal of the new CBA was to make it hard and expensive on teams used to just spending to get what they want. The Lakers are a great example of how that is going to work.

@sfsugator
You are that Laker fan that EVERYONE makes jokes about. I SWEAR…..We aren’t all delusional!!!

miamatt - Jul 23, 2013 at 4:08 PM

“you can count on that”??? HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA

Why would the best player in the world bolt on the hope that he can get it together with Kobe in the last couple years of his career? LBJ has already been through a relocation and knows that it isn’t as simple as plugging in superstars and winning a championship. Why would he leave a team president worth trusting in Pat Riley to put his faith in Buss the Younger?

Really, what get glossed over most in these discussions is why, at this stage in his career, would LeBron go anywhere? It’s his league now, and players will come to join him, NOT the other way around. It may not be a certainty but I’d “count on that” WAAAAAAYYY before I’d count on LBJ bringing back showtime lol….. actually, though, he has already brought back showtime- in Miami.

Having watched Kobe for 17 seasons, I would be absolutely shocked if he left.

He wants to win, yes, but he knows his legacy is in Los Angeles and if he leaves, even if he does win, it just adds to the whole “Shaq won him the first three” BS because people will say he just went somewhere else to ride someone else’s coattails.

Where could Kobe possibly go where he would be considered the leader of a contending team? That’s the only reason he’d leave. If there was another contender where he would be considered the undisputed leader. I’m a big Kobe fan, but I recognize there really isn’t a contending team he could go to where he’d be the undisputed leader at his age. Even KG and Pierce are considered role players of sorts on their new team.

If he stays in Los Angeles, even if he doesn’t win another championship, his legacy is what it is now- one of the best players of all time, who won five championships and was the undisputed leader of a back to back championship team and a leader on a threepeat team.

Well said. What if the Lakers don’t land anyone next summer, though? Does he suffer two years at the end of his career maybe not even making playoffs while the team rebuilds around him? I would think the Lakers would have to make that decision for him at some point, or he could decide to retire. Either way though, look at MJ. I think most people have completely blocked out of their minds that he played 2 seasons for the Wizards, so I think Kobe is fine legacy-wise no matter what he decides after this season.

Kobe has never been loved as much as Jordan was. As anti-Kobe folk like to say, he is very image conscious. There is no way he goes to another team, wins a championship, and people don’t yell about how he just played second fiddle to someone else to win that championship. People already try doing that for the two championships he was the clear undisputed leader of the Lakers for.

If they don’t get anyone next year? Who knows. I think he’ll take it when that comes. I think he’d probably retire. Maybe he goes to Europe after all.

Again, Kobe was good like the previous year, much better and closer to Shaq than he was during their 1st title season.

But still, looking at their Player Efficiency Rankings and their true shooting percentages, which takes into account Shaq’s terrible free throw shooting, Shaq is clearly the player who lead the Lakers to these 3 titles.

Now, Kobe isn’t chump change by any means but Shaq was the man those three seasons and he clearly outplayed Kobe in the Finals all three years too.

Kobe was Shaq’s sidekick those three years. Phil Jackson wrote in his book that Kobe was tired of being the sidekick. So even Kobe knew he was Shaq’s sidekick.

Again, Kobe is an all time great but it ISN’T BS to say that Shaq was the main reason Kobe got his first 3 rings.

@sportsfan
Kobe didn’t win his rings because of Shaq and Shaq didn’t win his rings because of Kobe. They won them TOGETHER!!!!!!!!!! That’s kind of how it goes in ALL OF SPORTS!! Teams win championships, not individuals. but a group of players…..TOGETHER!! You can post their finals stats all you want ( & we all know you will and like too cuz you have at least 10 times no exaggeration ) They made each other better and that’s why we won 3 str8 chips!!!

It’s BS because they won those rings as a team. Shaq was the best player, but the Lakers do not win those rings without Kobe as well. They balanced each other as players extremely well and Kobe provided a lot of the things that Shaq couldn’t- especially clutch play late in the fourth (Shaq was a liability with his poor FT shooting- maybe not like Dwight Howard, but still a liability).

Amen! It’s time to move on from Kobe. Nobody knows how he will play after the injury. Plus, you don’t mortgage the future, trying to hang on to the past~especially if that future’s name is LeBron!

And for those who think the Lakers owe him, they don’t! Kobe got paid for those seasons. And is getting paid over $30m this coming season and may not even play the whole year! The Lakers aren’t still paying Shaq, Fisher, Rick Fox, etc, his championship teammates. Why should they continue to feel obligate to pay him? Again, he got paid for those seasons.

If MJ could end his career in a different uniform, so can Kobe. There’s NO WAY I would sign to come play with him if I were LeBron and Carmello. If that’s the condition, I’m sure they’d pass, because if they come here Kobe won’t pass.

So fellow Lakers fans, you decide: Live in the past, or launch into the future?

Wow, the more I learn about the new CBA the more it seems the players agreed to a deal that really clobbers mid to higher level players in terms of salaries. It’s all relative of course, $3.5 million for most everyone is a spectacular salary but man, after a couple of max deals on one roster the numbers drop off significantly. There might be much more parity in the league now (think NFL) but there sure seems to be the “haves” and the “have nots” amongst the players. I’m kinda thinking they may opt out of this deal early in 2016. I would be surprised if Kobe left the Lakers…$10-13 mill on a 2 year deal seems like the ballpark to me…we’ll seeGreat piece Kurt.

I have been on a you have to trade Kobe kick I even wrote an article about it ( http://wp.me/p2FtV4-b2 ). It is time for Basketball to get with the program ala the NFL, aging stars have to go to keep your future in tact.

The best thing for Kobe to do is retire. He will not win another ring, and instead will go out limping. There is something to be said for athletes who know it’s time to go before they embarass themselves.

So this article is 100% speculation, read it all again, yet it only mentions that the Lakers have to have 12 players on the roster, with at least minimum contracts. The exact amount of players every other team, and every fan, already know each NBA has to field. Yet another useless article.

Kobe is not resigning for $10 million. You think he’s letting guys like Amare make double than him, and that he’s going to be outpaid by Andrea Bargnani? The difference between KG/Tim Duncan and Kobe is ego, namely Kobe’s is the size of Los Angeles. He also wants the scoring title. The Laker are also in a spot where they need Kobe more than he needs them. Add it all up and Kobe signs for no less than $16 million a season, likely closer to $20 million.

His legacy on the Lakers is already written, it won’t ever change even if he retires on a different team. Last I check Jordan still has a statue in Chicago when he retired a with the Wiz. Hakeem didn’t retire a Rocket but still has his legacy is a Rocket, Karl Malone. There are a few other cases. As long as a player stuck around with the team for majority of their career and actually did something for the city, his legacy will be there no matter if he retires with the team. Kobe is the same case.

@Buc
Does Kobe have a big ego…???? YES!!!! ( & Rightfully so. 5 Time world champion, MVP ( regular season and finals etc,etc,etc) an ALL-TIME GREAT!!!! Arguably the GREATEST Laker EVER….You name me a Superstar of that status that doesn’t have an ego?????? The rest of what your saying about him not taking a contract around 10 mil is speculation. Even tho you are spewing it like it’s the gospel!!!!

As the anti-Kobe folk such as yourself like to say, Kobe is very image-conscious and very concerned about his legacy. But what do you think is more important to his legacy? Making more money than Andrea Bargnani or winning his sixth championship and tying himself with Michael Jordan? He knows that winning another championship would be a far bigger boon to his legacy than making more money than Bargs.

As mcuh as he wants another ring, how will he get it? The next few years look doubtful for even him to play let alone the whole team getting better. The Lakers will take at least 2-3 years and a LOT of good trades and player development to even come close to competing.

If Kobe comes back and plays at the same level he did prior to getting injured then I don’t think he will accept 10-13 mil. If he comes back and doesn’t play at the same level then yes I can see him taking 10-13 mil. Either cases are not good for Lakers.

Paul George isn’t in a position to get a poison-pill offer sheet, and I’m sure Indiana is perfectly willing to give him a max contract. An offer sheet would even save them a little bit of money in years two, three and four since he’s eligible for smaller raises.

There’s no such thing as a “poison-pill offer” when it comes to players getting the max contract. By definition, you can’t design a more financially burdensome deal than a max deal since a max deal…is a maximum deal.

Here is what will happen during Paul George’s restricted free agency, assuming the Pacers don’t give him an early extension before the season ends:

1. He gets offered a max deal by some team (Let’s say Lakers).
2. Indiana matches.
3. The End.

You’d have to understand what a “poison pill” in a contract is before just throwing that word out randomly. Paul George will be getting a max extension from Indiana. Indiana has almost all the leverage next offseason for George. The only way they would allow George to leave is if George played for the one year qualifying offer and then left as an unrestricted free agent two offseasons from now.

Kobe isn’t stupid. He has an ego, but he’s smart enough to know that in 10 years NOBODY will say “Wow, Kobe made more than Andrea Bargnani in 2014.” He does realize that championships won while making $10 million still count as championships and maybe, just maybe, he realizes that a little bit of sacrifice at the end of his career will improve his image some. I’m not holding my breath on that last bit though.

let’s be serious…no one is going to LA in 2014, at least not the guys lakers fans will want, especially if kobe is still there. even if they somehow manage to get carmelo, they’ll be what the knicks are now. carmelo is not the type of player that makes his teammates better or carries them in the playoffs and he sure as hell won’t get along with kobe on the floor. forget about lebron, there is no logical reason for him going to LA. andrew wiggins is their best chance at returning to relevancy in the next 5 years

i know lakers nation will hate this but honestly how can you dispute it? what do you have to offer lebron or any other top free agent? mike d’antoni and jim buss? LOL. no young talent…no one in their prime..old kobe who will still dominate the ball no matter how old and inefficient he gets. ridiculous media pressure/scrutiny… but lebron will leave a dynasty because you guys are the mighty lakers and have 16 championships right?

The tax point is so key. California sports teams are going to have to start overpaying to get guys because there is a big difference in money. Look up how much Phil Mickelson just lost because he got drilled on taxes.

@buffalo
Your right. As much as I hate to say it, your right. You are also right about the 16 banners as well. Good to see you haven’t been living under a rock all these years!!! We will be bounce back trolls….We will be back!!!!

Where does this 13.3% rate keep coming from? Not that I’m doubting it, I’m just curious. When the state was selling Proposition 30 last year, the highest marginal tax rate was pegged at 12.3% for individuals making over $500,000.

jswede - Jul 23, 2013 at 8:39 PM

13.3% comes from the Mental Health Services Tax Rate of 1% added to 12.3% for taxable income in excess of $1,000,000.

This. Who do you guys think is going to be a bigger hero to a city – someone who wins them their first championship or someone who added another banner to the more than a dozen that are already up there?

Keep in mind that in the NBA championships are less spread out than say the NFL. Winning one when you’re not already on a historic team is huge, and your city will remember it.

Despite what Mr. Helin has claimed,
(and I still recall his earlier claims about Dwight Howard remaining a Laker)

I don’t believe Kobe will take a significantly reduced salary to play for a team unlikely to win a championship.

The Lakers may open their checkbook on 2014, but as they proved this last season, it takes more than a large payroll to be successful on the NBA.

If Kobe loses confidence in Laker management’s ability to assemble a team capable of contending for a championship (not an entirely unrealistic thought), he may choose to ride out the remainder of his career enhancing his personal statistics and his personal wealth.

How good would the clippers be w Paul Kobe Blake w doc rivers at the reigns? Not sure there is mutual interst this time around but fun to think about especially how close it came to happening last time!!

Lakers are being penalized for contracts that were signed under the rules of the previous CBA, not the one currently in use. So the rules were changed after player contracts were signed and the team was built. Seems very unfair to me, but I can’t feel too sorry for Lakers because they were quiet (like the other large markets) and let the small markets bully them during CBA negotiations.

Kurt – I’m surprised that you thought that article was “fantastic”. It is poorly written, has too many hashtag jokes and, more importantly, doesn’t represent all the financial options available to the Lakers.

The Lakers can use the stretch provision on Nash and would see around 6 million in cap space, which would let them sign two max players, as long as Kobe does take a pay cut.

It’s a pretty dramatic change to all the scenarios laid out on Grantland and should have be caught with a modicum of research.

I mention the stretch provision as an option, but remember that still leaves the Lakers with a cap hit of a little over three million (you don’t wipe out the deal, you just extend the pain). so you can add six million or so, and the Lakers are at $42 million. Depending on the players involved, that may not be two max deals. It really could come down to what they get Kobe to take. Then, who they can get to come.

Sorry must have missed your mention. But you’re right, it will come down to Kobe and what he wants out of his next deal. If it comes down to it, Nash is a good trade chip now and down the line. If they are under the cap, they don’t have to take the same money back and if it’s next year it’ll be a fire sale any ways.

Lakers are doomed. They don;t want to grow organically via drafts, young players, D League, Europe etc. Everything about Lakers is ego, arrogance and supremacy. The worst part is they are worst at it. Look at SPURS if I am Laker principal I want to get tutored by SPURS basket ball organization. However, that is a very hard pill to swallow for Lakers. The Lakers GM Mike Kupcake walked into Rockets and Dwight Howard meeting unannounced to persuade and beg D12 not to pick Rockets.
Lakers organization instead of showing their strengths actually did a two hour presentation telling Dwight and his agents how bad the Rockets and city of Houston is. These are the facts if any of you have connections with Fegan and Relativity media folks. You can confirm what I just mentioned. So I for one don’t have any sympathy for a team which tries to bad mouth others. I am happy Dwight did not buy into Lakers fraud and deceptive pitch.

Probably because the pieces Lakers were offering for CP3 was trash for the Hornets. When Hornets traded with Clippers for CP3 at they time Eric Gordon was looking like a up and coming star. People would had cried foul to Stern if he let the Laker trade on CP3 pass and then he would have to explain why he let unfair trade pass twice for the Lakers in the case of Paul Gasol and CP3 trade. PLus even if the Lakers got CP3 they will be in the same case now, CP3 would had signed to another team, just looking at the Laker Roster with aging Kobe injured. You think he would resigned with what the Lakers have now. Kobe would had told him in negotiating that he could teach him how to play the point and pass better, and Laker fans would agree with Kobe.

This overlooks the fact that you can go over the cap to resign your own players. So, if Kobe takes 10 million, they can do that after signing two max players and it is ok. That makes a huge difference as they would be able to sign LeBron and Melo AND resign Kobe (incredibly unlikely though).

Reblogged this on UnSportsMenMic and commented:
Like I said you have to trade Kobe, this article pulls out the numbers and the trade just makes sense, and again no Superstar wants to play with Kobe http://wp.me/p2FtV4-b2

Kobe won’t take $10 million. He probably already has a verbal contract with the Lakers. LeBron won’t come to a team with nothing but possibilities as players. Carmelo plays the same position as LeBron and three people who need the ball, and a point guard doesn’t work. LeBron stays in Miami.