Analysis: A devastating defeat for Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich is accustomed to be counting out. He’s been left for dead politically twice in the past nine months, only to bounce back to seize the lead for the Republican presidential nomination.

But does Gingrich, the cat man of the GOP presidential field, have four, let alone nine, lives?

After Mitt Romney crushed him yesterday in Florida, a number of veteran political observers (and Gingrich watchers) are skeptical.

The long and winding road (AP/Matt Rourke)

“This is a huge victory for Romney and an ever huger defeat for Gingrich,” said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University and prominent expert on Southern politics. “It will be very hard for him to recover now.”

He thinks that the defeat will put pressure on Gingrich to end his campaign in order to allow the Republicans to become united before the election against Obama in November.

Black predicted that “there will be pressure on Gingrich to end his campaign from the leaders of the Republican Party, but Gingrich being Gingrich, he’s of course going to totally ignore that.”

Gingrich made clear he’s not leaving the race — and insisted that he will ultimately turn out the winner.

“This is a long way from being over,” Gingrich said while meeting with supporters on primary day. “I’d say June or July — unless Romney drops out earlier.”

Black thinks that kind of talk is mere bluster.

“What Gingrich needed to stay in the race as a serious candidate was to build on the South Carolina success,” Black said. “Now that he has suffered a big defeat, it will be harder for him to be perceived as a serious candidate and even harder for him to raise money.”

The loss is complicated by the political geography of 2012. It will be difficult for Gingrich to win in the caucus contests that dominate February. Gingrich’s next shot at a big delegate haul is Super Tuesday, March 6.

“He really doesn’t have much coming up in the immediate future,” said Black. “It’s going to be hard for him to win in Arizona and Michigan, and if his strategy is to wait for a win until the beginning of March, it’s looking pretty bleak. If he can’t win Florida, he can’t win the White House.”

Black points out that Gingrich has got one major advantage: his indomitable will.

“Gingrich has an ambition for power like no one you’ve seen before,” the Georgia professor said. “He lost twice while running for Congress before getting elected. There’s not a lot of people that would do that. That indicates a very strong ambition for power.”