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Friday, February 16, 2018

Weak U.S. Response to Russian Proxies Undermines Deterrence in Middle East and Eastern Europe

By: Bradley Hanlon with the ISW
Research Team

Key
Takeaway: The
Russian Wagner private military company and Lebanese Hezbollah attacked
U.S. and partner forces in Eastern Syria on February 7, 2018. Wagner is part of
the business empire belonging to Putin ally Evgeni Prigozhin, whom Special Counsel
Robert Mueller indicted on February 16. The
Kremlin uses proxy forces in Ukraine as well as Syria to maintain plausible
deniability and avoid accountability for aggressive actions abroad. A proxy
directly attacking U.S. forces is a significant escalation in the Kremlin’s use
of irregular forces. The U.S. responded tactically in self-defense, but Secretary
of Defense James Mattis did not hold Russia accountable, questioning whether
Moscow had ordered the attack. The U.S. failure to hold Russia accountable and respond
strategically to this attack sets a dangerous precedent, enabling the expansion
of Russian proxy warfare. The Kremlin can use deniable proxies to attack U.S.
forces and partners in other theaters, such as Eastern Europe and the Baltics.

The
Russo-Iranian military coalition supporting the regime of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad used a Russian private military company to launch a coordinated
attack on U.S. and partner forces in Eastern Syria.Several hundred pro-Assad regime
fighters launched a coordinated attack against a base occupied by U.S.
and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the main U.S. partner in Syria - in
Eastern Deir ez-Zour province on February 7. Russian private military company
(PMC) Wagner participated in the attack.

The
Kremlin officially denied knowledge of the assault and
employed an information operation to muddle the true narrative of the event.Russian military officials
maintainedcontact through ‘deconfliction’ channels
with U.S. forces throughout the attack, while denying that they knew that
Wagner and its Lebanese Hezbollah partner forces had engaged. Russia thereby
sought to obscure its role in the attack. The Kremlin has subsequently
obfuscated the number of Russian mercenaries involved, the number killed, and
the motivation for the attack using techniques common to Russia’s information
campaign inUkraine.

The
Kremlin nevertheless likely knew of and permitted the attack on U.S. and
partner forces on February 7. The Kremlin has used proxy forces
in the past to maintain plausible deniability and shed accountability for
aggressive actions abroad. Wagner is a private military company with close ties
to the Kremlin and Russian military forces. Dmitry Utkin – a former Russian
special forces officer – founded the company. Wagner reportedly trains recruits at a shared base with
Russian Special Forces near Molkino, Russia. It has played an important role
supporting Russian military operations. Wagner operated as a Kremlin proxy in
Ukraine, fighting alongside Russian-backed separatists and in coordination with
the Armed Forces of Russia.[1]Wagner deployed to Syria in 2015 and played a key role in the Russia-backed
offensives to retake oil-rich areas in Palmyra and Deir ez-Zour Province from the Islamic State of Iraq and
al Sham (ISIS). The Russian Ministry of Defense has provided direct support to
Wagner in Syria through both arms andtransport.[2]

The
indictments handed down by U.S. Special Counsel Robert Mueller significantly
reduce the plausibility of attempts to deny Kremlin control over Wagner's
actions.Russian
businessman Evgeni Prigozhin is a close ally of President Vladimir Putin and a known associate of Dmitry Utkin. His business
empire includes Wagner. The Kremlin leverages Prigozhin's businesses as a proxy
tool to achieve various foreign policy objectives while maintaining plausible
deniability. Special Counsel Mueller indicted Prigozhin for attempting to
undermine the 2016 U.S. presidential election on February 16, 2018. Prigozhin
served as the financier of a company that purchased private networks in
the U.S. to establish fraudulent social media profiles allegedly posing as U.S.
persons in order to defraud U.S. elections according to the indictment.

The
Kremlin likely benefits economically from Wagner’s involvement in Syria as well.Utkin
commands Wagner in seizing and
securing
Syrian oil fields in Eastern Syria. The Prigozhin-led company Evro Polis signed acontract with the Syrian regime’s
state-owned petroleum company. The contract allocates 25 percent of all revenue
from oil and gas facilities in Syria seized with the assistance of Russian
forces to Evro Polis. These revenues are likely channeled to support the Putin
regime.

The
U.S. failure to hold the Kremlin accountable for its mercenaries' attack on
U.S. and partner forces sets a precedent that the Kremlin will likely exploit
in Syria and in Eastern Europe. The U.S. response to the pro-Assad
regime attack on February 7 will not be enough to deter Russia from the future
use of proxies, despite its tactical success. The U.S. has previously failed to
hold the Kremlin accountable for the actions of its proxy forces against
Ukraine, encouraging Moscow to expand its use of this tool. The U.S. response
to the February 7 attack further signals to the Kremlin that it will not be
held accountable for the actions of its proxies – beyond a tactical cost – even
when those proxies directly threaten American forces.