Tuesday, September 2, 2008

NC 8: Good news for Obama and Hagan, not for Perdue

Barack Obama 43John McCain 43Bob Barr 5

In 2004 George W. Bush beat John Kerry 55-44 in this district, so Barack Obama keeping it tied at this point is just another indication of North Carolina's virtual swing state status this year. The folks undecided for President right now are a Democratic leaning bunch- they support Kay Hagan, Bev Perdue, and Larry Kissell. Evidently they have some doubts about Obama but given their overall voting preferences it would seem he has a leg up.

Kay Hagan 45Elizabeth Dole 41Christopher Cole 3

Just more evidence of how this race has been fundamentally altered over the last month. Dole won the district 51-48 in 2002. Hagan is getting almost as much Republican support (15%) as Dole is Democratic support (17%). Given the state's overall Democratic lean Hagan would coast to victory if that held up statewide.

Pat McCrory 43Bev Perdue 40Michael Munger 4

Not good news for the Democratic candidate, though not necessarily surprising news either given that a lot of this district is her opponent's home turf. The last time the Governor's seat was open Mike Easley beat Richard Vinroot 53-44 in this district. McCrory is getting 21% of the Democratic vote in this district that includes a lot of territory in the Charlotte media market. Perdue will improve her standing if she can pick up most of the support of the 20% of black voters who are currently undecided.

There is and always has been a major party identification advantage for Democrats in the 8th District- a lot of them just don't actually vote Democratic particularly for federal offices even though they personally identify with the party. Look at the demographics on the poll.