Region 11692 [N08W56] developed positive polarity spots to the
southwest of the large negative polarity spot, a few of them inside the same
penumbra. While the magnetic delta structure is currently small, there is an
increasing chance of an M class flare.
Region 11694 [N14W46] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 11695 [N09W33] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11696 [N04W83] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11699 [S15W83] was quiet and stable.
Region 11700 [S13E31] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not numbered by SWPC:S2299 [N20E21] was quiet and stable.S2306 [N08W38] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S2307 [S25W17] emerged with a penumbra spot.

March 17: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery late in the day.
STEREO-A displays a CME starting at 15:54 UTC with the major part of the
ejection occurring a few hours later (when it was observed in STEREO-B as well).
SDO imagery displays a complex sequence of events involving large parts of the
visible northern hemisphere. The most significant event was a filament eruption
close to AR S2302 starting near 16:43 UTC.
March 18-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
and
STEREO imagery.

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths
north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on
long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on March 20 with a
chance of minor storm intervals if the CME observed on March 17 arrives. Quiet to active conditions are possible on
March 21-22 due to effects from CH561.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejection (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay
where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary
provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots
observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not
numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region
numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic
SWPC/USAF numbers.

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B)
Boulder SN current month
average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the definitive
international Potsdam
WDC
ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are
available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the
UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science
teams.