UI Political Markets Highly Accurate

June 7, 2004 | Bloomberg

Shorcan Group, a Canadian bond broker, has set up a new futures market that allows investors to trade on the outcome of a federal election for the first time. The Toronto-based firm began taking orders today, allowing investors to bet on any one of the five major political parties registered for the June 28 vote. Early trading suggests investors are following the most recent election polls, which put the ruling Liberal Party and the opposition Conservative Party in a tie. A similar market has been operated by the UNIVERSITY OF IOWA since 1988 for U.S. elections. The university has recorded an average 1.37 percentage point margin of error in presidential elections, compared with an average margin of 2 to 2.5 percentage points for polls, according to the school's web site.