Wednesday, April 29, 2009

A big thanks to those of you who contacted me over a doco to be made of Warren Buffett by the BBC around Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and the Berkshire 2009 Annual Meeting in Omaha Nebraska that kicks off this weekend.

I have had many replies, and none more so than the following one encapsulates the deep feeling and respect this great investor and thoroughly interesting man seems to capture from his many millions of followers, including myself:

"I understand you are looking for Berkshire shareholders. I have been a Berkshire shareholder since 2001.

I can say with some confidence that Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are more important in my life than God! I am a university graduate and a Chartered Accountant. I have worked in businesses for over 25 years but any knowledge I have acquired from these experiences is like a pebble in ocean in comparison to what I have learned from Warren and Charlie.

If you study Berkshire and the people behind it you are tapping into a rich reservoir of knowledge and wisdom that has proved incredibly useful in the real world of business over a long period of time. The Berkshire values are very old fashioned and very simple. It is about taking the long term view, common sense, humility, rationality, hard work and prudence.

Much of what goes on in the world of business and politics looks absurd and grotesque when viewed through the Warren Buffett lens. Why are people so loyal to Warren Buffett and Berkshire? It is just pure Disney. Failing textile mill, Berkshire Hathaway, taken over by young investor Warren Buffett. Investment is a terrible mistake. Buffett uses the company as his investment vehicle choosing not to take a management fee from his fellow shareholders. Over time the company evolves into one of the largest and most respected companies in the world. Warren Buffett turns out to be the greatest investor ever and becomes the richest man on the planet. In the end it’s not about the money and Warren gives the bulk of his fortune to the children of Africa. Who would not want to be part of this?

Good luck with your documentary. It will be easy to make the shareholders look like crazy America cult members. I know the BBC will go deeper than that."Gareth, Northern Ireland.

What Buffett has to say this weekend will be covered by media from around the world and more than 35,000 people will be attending in person to get his pearls of investing wisdom sieved through a down home style of old fashioned hokiness and a wonderful sense of black humour.

The world will be watching closely for some explanation of his frenzied buying activities over the last year and also his view of economic conditions over the following 12 months and of course the years to come.

I will be watching closely and you can keep up to date on what is more commonly known as the "Woodstock for Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders" at Everything Warren Buffett.

Monday, April 27, 2009

So Kirin is making an offer for the rest of Lion Nathan LtdPDF [LNN.NZ] that they don't already own. They are offering A $12.22 per share therefore valuing the company at about $A6.5 billion.The LNN board is recommending the offer but are shareholders getting a fair deal?Lets do a comparison of the recent buyout last year of Anheuser Busch by InBev. In that deal InBev bought its target for close to US $50 billion with valued the company at approx 15X EBITDA according to website Blogging Stocks.The Kirin/Lion deal values Lion at 12.5 X EBITDA according to Michael Feller from the Business Spectator"The price Kirin is offering effectively values Lion at $6.5 billion on an equity basis and $8.2 billion on enterprise value, as well as an FY09 consensus forecast EBITDA multiple around 12.5 times".The EBITDA comparison then between the two deals shows an enormous gap in the prices paid for the two targets, with Kirin shelling out 20% less to take control of Lion than what InBev paid for Anheuser Busch last year.If a comparable 15 X EBITDA figure was offered by Kirin then the per share price should be closer to $14.66 per share.Figures aside the iconic status of both target brewers is very strong and there should be a premium for that.Also the tough economic times we are currently facing show fully the benefits and therefore the value of having brewing assets-they do well during booms and better in recessions!The long-term benefits of good brands must also be accounted for in this takeover price.Clearly then, Lion shareholders are being seriously under represented by Lion Nathan management as they have agreed the price to be paid is sufficient and another higher offer must be made for control of the company.Lets hope the independent report into the offer turns out to be a definite no at the current Kirin offer price.Shareholders should reject the bid.Recent Share Investor Reading

One of New Zealand's most destructive politicians in our history has his final day in Parliament today.

Michael Cullen presided over an economic boom which had its genesis in the 1980s and had not been seen for generations. He then taxed and spent the economy into such a hemorrhaging economic state it will take another generation to get back to real economic growth.

His legacy is a massive crumbling State service, bloated with civil servants with nothing constructive to do and as a result middle income families with high debt taxed to the hilt to pay for the whole thing!

A venal, nasty, arrogant incompetent evil socialist prick who never had a real job in his whole life - is there any other kind of socialist?

Saturday, April 25, 2009

I mentioned to one of my email correspondents that I would return in a few months to see my bank manager, "Bryce" at the ASB Bank in Albany after having seen him first late one Thursday at the end of February to re-negotiate the terms of our rather large mortgage.I did, sort of.This time Bryce was unwilling to see me after my hard workday so we discussed the matter over the mobile.I would have preferred to see him in person but he insisted I couldn't.I pointed out to him, again, that the New Zealand taxpayer was guaranteeing banks in New Zealand so they could borrow cheaper money from abroad to lend to us.Bryce pointed out to me that it wasn't the taxpayer that was going guarantor,it was in fact the Government.After pointing Bryce to the error of his ways over the fact that Government and the taxpayer were one and the same (Bryce still doesn't think they are) I thought out loud that wasn't it funny that as a borrower from his bank, the ASB, that I was now a guarantor for my loan but also as a taxpayer I was going guarantor for his bank to borrow the same money to lend back to me.This seem to confuse Bryce but it was very clear to me.I added what I said at our Thursday evening meeting in February, that we are clearly living in exceptional economic times, something Bryce agreed with during the mere half dozen times I repeated that same mantra.Bryce said I would be breaking my contract with the bank if we re-negotiated without an outrageous bank fee and I agreed with Bryce at that stage but had to point out that the terms of our contract had clearly changed because I was now going guarantor for both his and my borrowing, hence making it cheaper for Goldstein and his fat American buddy to borrow money in the first place.We both became dizzy as I reiterate the above several times (I don't let go once I sink my teeth in) to no effect at all.The bank will not negotiate at all, that is all he had to say from the get-goBefore we both left the conversation, Bryce pointed out that the bank had been around for 100 and something years and was "very safe" immaterial of any taxpayer/Government guarantees and then I asked him why then did the bank sign up to the guarantee and he kindly pointed out because that is what the other banks were doing and it wouldn't "be fair" to the ASB if they didn't join the party.Fair... mmm, yes but, why?...A asked whether the bank had these sort of guarantees during the 1930s, he didn't know, I left none the wiser and Bryce left probably wishing he hadn't returned my call.I don't think Bryce is going to take another call from me.I will however have another go in a few more months.More Banking Madness @ ShareinvestorWestpac: I'm Thinking of Returning

Friday, April 24, 2009

I hate to see people lose money and not get money that is due to them.

The Securities Commission is actually earning its money in this case - I knew they were good for something!

Some 535 shareholders are still eligible for compensation from settlement of the Tranz Rail insider trading case. The names of these shareholders are listed on the Commission's website at www.seccom.govt.nz. They are invited to contact the Commission by 24 July 2009 for information about how to claim their compensation. Entitled shareholders will need to verify their identity and shareholding details. Full Press Release

The claim relates to the Fay Richwhite Trans Rail insider trading case where the aforementioned made a $27 million payment to the Securities Commission, without admitting guilt, to insider trading.

The case was unable to be proven by the Commission but there is clear evidence of the insider trading and most of us are aware of information that points to Messrs Richwhite's guilt.

The claim for those 535 shareholders with money outstanding is time limited, so get off your butt and contact the Securities Commisssion before the State gets it.

Just as an aside, funny that last year the same company was bought on behalf of the taxpayer under similar fraudulent circumstances by one Michael Cullen.

My confusion is compounded by the fact that the $230 million raised appeared to be for two different reasons, for purchase opportunities and "strengthening the balance sheet" in uncertain times but if a purchase is made how does that strengthen the balance sheet? especially if it involves drawing down on the half a billion in unused credit facilities that Sky City currently has.

I am going try to unwind my confusion and explain my point of view on this subject in the following column.

"Our shareholders have made it clear to us that they want us to focus on maximising the performance of the assets we operate. This is what we will be doing. as we have said previously, we expect to achieve this within an 18-month time frame. We will retain tight control over capital and not expend capital unless we are very confident of healthy returns for shareholders".

The emphasis on unnecessary capital spending in addition to paying down debt has been made several times since then and one could be forgiven for thinking that this task was going to be paramount to everything else until performance at the company was "maximised".

That certainly of direction needed to be achieved as the company has floundered directionless over the last 5 years under the previous CEO Evan Davies.

Now of course Morrison does have to be fleet footed and have the ability to change tack as economic circumstances change but the clear direction that he outlined last year has forked out into another, possibly expensive direction:

"For anybody to suggest that the money it just going to sit on deposit in a bank account earning 3 per cent for three years, that's ludicrous," he said."It's a position of strength. We're not beholden to any financier or any bank."Morrison said it also gave the company funding for acquisitions should opportunities arise.Full Story

Now I am not about to suggest that Morrison is going to plunder more shareholder money on overpriced assets as Evan Davies did, as his reputation for being a canny operator who rejuvenates casinos is well known but I get a little edgy when he is asking shareholders to put their hands in their pockets to buy more casino assets, even if they are as he said, now going for knocked down prices.

It is the move away from the previous stated 18 month aim of being financially prudent and rejigging the business that has me worried and to then focus on other plans that involve large capital expenditures would be a more realistic goal, especially as those casino assets he may now be talking about could be alot cheaper in 6 months time.

Back on the agenda for this week is the capital raising that is sweeping NZX listed companies.

Apart from the fact that they have been carried out without the permission of shareholders and the NZX has granted them waivers to allow management to do so, there seems to be a pattern forming.

The latest capital raising to be announced was Sky City Entertainment [SKC.NZ] who came out today with an underwritten offering of 71 million shares to institutions and a further NZ$50 million or around 20 million shares in an offer to smaller shareholders like me.

The company really doesn't need the extra funding because its current debt servicing doesn't have to be re-negotiated for a number of years.

An additional $NZ 22,000 approx that I must find. Not a problem for me and I don't have a big issue with stumping up the cash because as part owner of these businesses sometimes you extract money from them and sometimes you have to put it back in.

As I mentioned above what I do have a big issue with is the lack of consultation with shareholders like me and the NZX's collusion with company management to allow them to bypass owners rights and give institutions preferences that smaller shareholders dont get. I would have said yes to company requests (sans the institutional favouritism) for more capital but I nevertheless should be asked in the first place.

I own part of these companies after all !

It has sent me into a kind of Bruce Sheppard mode on speed but there is very little I can do except make it known here that I am an unhappy camper.

Nuplex Group [NPX.NZ], Fisher & Paykel Appliances [FPA.NZ], Kiwi Income Property Trust [KIP.NZ] and a whole host of other companies have already had out the begging bowl and I fully expect to have to fork out more myself although the bulk of my extra capital allocations have already revealed themselves.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Close watchers of mine would have noted a renewed interest in Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] over the last few days. I have written a couple of articles (12 )on Auckland's near monopoly air services provider.

My interest has culminated today by buying a small additional shareholding of 2000 shares to add to my existing 1000. Cost NZ$1.70 per share.

I have taken my eye off the ball over the last few months with other commitments and it is not until you can sit down and look at the figures that you can start to make a case to spend more money in this turbulent investing environment.

Only yesterday did I write that I felt that collectively investors had seemed to reach some kind of investing "Tipping Point" where they have got thoroughly brassed off with all the gloom and focused on the more positive aspects of business and investing.

This has certainly been the case for me today with my new purchase but lets not get carried away. I have bought at a good price for me, my original foray into AIA being at $2.15 in November 2006. With dividends and tax credits included in that initial AIA purchase my cost price comes in at $1.88 per share. Today's purchase then is 18c per share lower than it was more than 2 years ago.

Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] looks like they are using a downturn in passenger numbers and therefore revenue to move away from their core business of airport services.

The downturn in passenger arrivals coincided with the release of a new strategy plan for Auckland Airport by Moutter, himself newly appointed to the job.

The previous management team had responded to the drivers of the day, which was strong and continuing passenger growth, said Moutter. But the dynamic had shifted, and there was huge uncertainty as to when that growth might return. "But if we hunker down and drop everything to the lowest cost base, then we won't be able to capitalise when growth triggers return," he said.

His new strategy concentrates far more on developing the substantial land holdings held by the company. Property, he says, is one area where the airport company had the highest hopes and greatest opportunity of surviving, and even thriving through the recession. Full Story ( Doc attachment)

Investors need to beware that when a company with a core business changes tack there can be problems with that change and all the associated financial fallout that entails-increased capital expenditure being just one of those fallout's.

Auckland Airport have done well in the past from operating an airport and that is where their business expertise principally lies.

Granted they are landlords for retail outlets that operate inside and outside their main airport buildings and revenue also comes from their large car parking facility. These areas of their business comprise 55% of their income but management need to keep in mind why those facilities are there and are successful in the first place - the foot traffic that comes from airport user and visitor foot traffic.

New Zealand listed businesses are littered with the failure of management moving outside their sphere of business experience. Recent examples include The Warehouse Group [WHS.NZ], Restaurant Brands [RBD.NZ], Telecom NZ [TEL.NZ] and Hallenstein Glasson [HLG.NZ] making moves into markets they didn't know well and their shareholders were materially affected by these poor decisions.

Don't get me wrong, you have to adapt to changing markets. Auckland Airport passenger numbers are currently falling, but this will not last and management simply cannot take their eye off the golden goose lest they be caught unaware when traffic numbers climb again.

The focus for the long term must be on planning for increases in airport facilities, for passengers, planes etc and driving demand for more airline business.

The other bolt on revenue streams, while clearly important, need to come second to the main business and driver of those other revenue streams, core airport facilities.

I have got to say it, I am over reading, watching, listening and writing about economic crises, recessions, banking collapses and companies sinking under debt.

Enough already!

Lets get on with the real stuff of business, finance, companies growing and returns we can all get from investing, in the stockmarket and other financial sectors.

I, and I feel others, have reached a psychological tipping point where we just cant take all this bad news anymore and we want to concentrate on content rather than the emotional turmoil of turbulent markets. Whether it is boredom or pure negative information overload we all have a tipping point that we reach at one stage or another.

That is not to say people want to bury their heads in the sand and forget what is happening around them but this change in market "feeling" (some say would say greed instead of the most recently prevailing fear) is palpable in my circles of influence.

I was reasonably pessimistic about economic events over the last few years but there came a point where my tiny little brain just couldn't take any more bad news and it did a 180 degree turn.

That happened a couple of weeks ago.

When that happens as a group, or in this apparent case millions of investors, the more positive mental outlook lifts everything around them.

We have been told at least half of the economic downturn is due to state of mind rather than real economic factors, and I believe that has merit, so finally hitting the wall of economic bad news is, well, good news for the real economy.

Let me repeat, I am not sticking my head in the economic sand. I and I would contend many others are sick of the dire economic news, just cant take anymore and are ready to move on.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Auckland International Airport [AIA.NZ] is presently a well underrated stock, for a number of reasons. It, like every either stock on the NZX, is getting a pasting by nervous investors and post the merger hubbub the share price has tanked.

OK, I do own this stock but it is pretty immaterial really, I only own 1000 shares, so if you do rib me just make it a small ribbing if you would.

I bought my shares at $2.15 and at today's closing of $1.70 (I originally started this yesterday when AIA was at $1.64) it makes the company a cheap proposition. $1.56 is its 52 week low. (see 2 year chart above for details)

Just over a year ago they were fetching more than $3.60 due to competing bids to buy a share of the company.

Lets forget about the share price for a moment though, even though that is the main reason for this particular column.

For $1.70 per share what do you get?

* An essential monopoly with the ability to raise prices consistently above the rate of inflation.

To add to this there has been a softening in National Government policy to allow assets like these an easier saleability to overseas interests; Previous Government regulation led the AIA sale to fall through.

In addition to the above point and politics again I'm afraid, with the imminent "super city" about to dawn on Auckland the question of airport shares being held by Auckland and Manakau City Councils will definitely come up again.

Regardless of the short and long term propositions that I have pointed out for owning this stock you will have to make your mind up whether you want to buy Auckland Airport stock but I rate it a buy at these price levels.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

I am currently listening to Tony Veitch on NewstalkZB being interviewed by Susan Wood.

If his account of the kick in the back was true Kristen Dunne-Powell deserved everything she got.

According to Veitch she was in effect stalking him, wouldn't let go after he dumped her and she put herself physically in his way to stop him from leaving a bedroom-he kicked her in frustration.

He shouldn't have kicked her but the hell she put him through before the assault looks to have pressured Veitch to the point of breaking.

She then pretty much did nothing about the incident until five weeks before Veitch was due to be married and then, through her lawyers extorted more than $150,000.00 off him and promised to keep silent in return.

She then released detail to the media, then through her lawyers and PR spokes people has spent the next year assaulting his character.

Sounds like a spiteful, vengeful, media hungry bitch with an axe to grind to me.

What this means in effect is that there was insufficient evidence to prove assault and Veitch has pleaded to this non charge to bring the whole thing to a head rather than wait for another 2 years to get his day in court.

Former girlfriend Kristin Dunne-Powell who brought the charges, along with a police force publicly out to get him have got what they wanted though; his name dragged through the courts and his reputation, whatever that was, tarnished beyond repair.

Dunne-Powell has clearly got egg on her face and it would be nice for the mainstream media to attack her in the way they went after him.

I post this Wall Street Journal article here because not only is the WSJ the best financial paper in the world but the article is the most illuminating that I have seen on the current economic and financial mess that we find ourselves in the middle of.

It gives perspective, some opinion and most of all experience.

Perhaps the most illuminating of accounts is about a man called Irving Kahn, I have heard about him before briefly and his story, among the others in this sizable column really put today's investors in the picture more clearly than anything I have read, listened to or watched over the last 2 years.

Irving Kahn sits at his cluttered desk, peering at his computer screen through thick, dark glasses. The Dow inched up 38 points today, a small move in light of its 332-point drop earlier in the week. But Kahn has made a career of betting on beaten-down stocks, and he's hard at work poring over annual reports and studying balance sheets looking for companies that have lots of cash, not much debt and good long-term growth prospects. General Electric has a solid business and looks pretty good at these prices, he muses. General Motors? Not so much.

Like a lot of us, Kahn has seen good times and bad, bull markets and bear markets, recessions and recoveries. But he's also seen something most of us haven't: the Great Depression. Kahn, who still shows up at work every day and puts in a good six hours, worked as a stock analyst and brokerage clerk on Wall Street in the 1930s. He's 103 years old.

That's right — 103. As pundits half their age dominate the airwaves with prognostications on whether the next Great Depression is just around the corner, a small group of overlooked folks who not just lived through it but worked through it — on Wall Street — are still here. What's more, they're still at it, running their own sizable portfolios and, in a few cases, managing money for clients. Despite innumerable bull and bear markets, 17 presidents, and countless economic policies, they've remained remarkably true to their investing philosophy. They've also remained remarkably true to their methods: Forget BlackBerrys; most of them hardly touch their desktop computers. And you won't find CNBC blaring in their offices throughout the day; that's more noise than news to these gentlemen. Instead, you'll find stacks of reading material (these guys actually read a firm's annual report before investing) and a lot of old-fashioned...what do you call it? Oh, right. Math. See fully story at WSJ

Irving puts the long into long term investing and if any example of longevity can give today's investors hope for that long-term it is individuals like Irving, with qualities like tenacity, a capacity for hard work, honesty, intelligence, ethics and most of all experience.

If the WSJ article doesn't give you a better feeling about where you are going in the future, investing and in life, you haven't read it thoughtfully enough.

It has got the lefty control freaks up in arms already and it ain't even out yet, so it definitely has merit on that point alone.

It may be written by the sometimes off the wall Ian Wishart but the book is a good read, factual rather than the fictional Inconvenient Truth on which title its fucks with and the annotated research it contains is something that Inconvenient Truth lacks in spades.

We know that the science on this matter is far from settled and in fact the balance of known scientific research, not the made up bullshit from the left who are making money out of this, is reinforced in this excellent book.

I would recommend it to all my readers.

From Investigate Website

Straight to the point, easy to read, Ian Wishart has pulled together the latest research and lights a fuse under the global warming industry. Have all the facts at your fingertips, and then you can decide whether you should be paying higher prices and higher taxes to fix global warming.