After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team to evaluate its performance. See more ...Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.) Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them. And non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area. All of these metrics are combined with the actual score of the game to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »

September

9/24

Leverkusen3

63%

22%

Hamburger SV0

16%

LEV

HSV

Adjusted goals

2.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.5

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.9

0.9

9/24

Hannover 960

39%

28%

1. FC Cologne0

33%

HAN

COL

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.5

0.5

9/23

Dortmund6

74%

17%

Gladbach1

9%

DOR

MGB

Adjusted goals

6.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

5.2

1.2

Non-shot xG

2.6

0.6

9/23

RB Leipzig2

52%

27%

Eintracht1

20%

RBL

FRA

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.0

1.1

9/23

Hoffenheim2

49%

26%

Schalke 040

25%

HOF

SCH

Adjusted goals

1.6

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.1

1.8

9/23

Mainz1

43%

29%

Hertha BSC0

28%

MNZ

HER

Adjusted goals

0.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.6

0.7

9/23

Werder Bremen0

54%

24%

SC Freiburg0

21%

BRE

FRE

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.7

9/23

VfB Stuttgart0

38%

28%

FC Augsburg0

35%

STU

AUG

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.0

1.0

9/22

Bayern Munich2

86%

11%

Wolfsburg2

3%

BMU

WLF

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.9

9/20

Hamburger SV0

16%

21%

Dortmund3

63%

HSV

DOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.9

Shot-based xG

0.2

3.1

Non-shot xG

0.8

2.3

9/20

Mainz2

36%

28%

Hoffenheim3

37%

MNZ

HOF

Adjusted goals

2.1

3.2

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.6

9/20

SC Freiburg1

47%

28%

Hannover 961

25%

FRE

HAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.6

1.4

Non-shot xG

1.8

1.0

9/20

Hertha BSC2

35%

27%

Leverkusen1

39%

HER

LEV

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.1

9/20

1. FC Cologne0

41%

29%

Eintracht1

30%

COL

FRA

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.2

1.1

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.3

9/19

FC Augsburg1

34%

27%

RB Leipzig0

39%

AUG

RBL

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.6

9/19

Wolfsburg1

44%

27%

Werder Bremen1

29%

WLF

BRE

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.2

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.9

9/19

Schalke 040

16%

20%

Bayern Munich3

63%

SCH

BMU

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.0

Shot-based xG

1.0

2.6

Non-shot xG

0.7

2.8

9/19

Gladbach2

58%

23%

VfB Stuttgart0

19%

MGB

STU

Adjusted goals

2.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.3

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.7

9/17

Dortmund5

76%

16%

1. FC Cologne0

8%

DOR

COL

Adjusted goals

5.3

0.0

Shot-based xG

3.1

0.5

Non-shot xG

2.8

0.4

9/17

Leverkusen4

59%

22%

SC Freiburg0

19%

LEV

FRE

Adjusted goals

3.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.5

9/17

Hoffenheim1

55%

26%

Hertha BSC1

19%

HOF

HER

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.5

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.9

9/16

RB Leipzig2

52%

25%

Gladbach2

23%

RBL

MGB

Adjusted goals

2.1

1.7

Shot-based xG

0.6

1.5

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.9

9/16

Bayern Munich4

85%

11%

Mainz0

4%

BMU

MNZ

Adjusted goals

4.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

4.7

0.8

Non-shot xG

3.7

0.6

9/16

Eintracht1

47%

29%

FC Augsburg2

24%

FRA

AUG

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.9

Shot-based xG

1.6

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.6

0.7

9/16

Werder Bremen1

42%

26%

Schalke 042

32%

BRE

SCH

Adjusted goals

1.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

1.0

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.0

9/16

VfB Stuttgart1

35%

27%

Wolfsburg0

37%

STU

WLF

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.2

0.5

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.6

9/15

Hannover 962

38%

30%

Hamburger SV0

33%

HAN

HSV

Adjusted goals

1.8

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.4

1.2

9/10

Schalke 043

59%

24%

VfB Stuttgart1

17%

SCH

STU

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.1

1.7

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.9

9/10

Hertha BSC1

42%

27%

Werder Bremen1

32%

HER

BRE

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.3

0.6

Non-shot xG

0.9

0.9

9/9

Hoffenheim2

19%

21%

Bayern Munich0

60%

HOF

BMU

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.5

2.1

Non-shot xG

0.4

2.5

9/9

FC Augsburg3

41%

28%

1. FC Cologne0

32%

AUG

COL

Adjusted goals

2.6

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.0

2.2

9/9

Mainz3

35%

26%

Leverkusen1

39%

MNZ

LEV

Adjusted goals

3.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.3

1.1

Non-shot xG

0.9

1.0

9/9

SC Freiburg0

18%

21%

Dortmund0

61%

FRE

DOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.4

1.7

Non-shot xG

0.3

2.9

9/9

Gladbach0

50%

27%

Eintracht1

23%

MGB

FRA

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.9

1.4

9/9

Wolfsburg1

59%

26%

Hannover 961

16%

WLF

HAN

Adjusted goals

1.1

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.4

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.5

1.1

9/8

Hamburger SV0

33%

27%

RB Leipzig2

40%

HSV

RBL

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.0

Shot-based xG

0.7

1.2

Non-shot xG

0.6

1.9

August

8/27

Hannover 961

27%

27%

Schalke 040

46%

HAN

SCH

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.9

0.5

Non-shot xG

1.2

1.4

8/27

RB Leipzig4

57%

24%

SC Freiburg1

19%

RBL

FRE

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

2.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.3

0.8

8/26

Dortmund2

76%

16%

Hertha BSC0

8%

DOR

HER

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.1

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.4

0.9

8/26

FC Augsburg2

34%

28%

Gladbach2

38%

AUG

MGB

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

3.2

1.3

Non-shot xG

2.6

1.0

8/26

Eintracht0

43%

29%

Wolfsburg1

27%

FRA

WLF

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

1.0

0.8

Non-shot xG

2.0

0.7

8/26

Leverkusen2

45%

25%

Hoffenheim2

30%

LEV

HOF

Adjusted goals

2.1

2.1

Shot-based xG

2.2

0.8

Non-shot xG

1.6

0.7

8/26

Werder Bremen0

15%

17%

Bayern Munich2

68%

BRE

BMU

Adjusted goals

0.0

2.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

1.9

Non-shot xG

0.5

3.4

8/26

VfB Stuttgart1

36%

27%

Mainz0

37%

STU

MNZ

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

2.2

0.4

Non-shot xG

1.2

0.8

8/25

1. FC Cologne1

52%

27%

Hamburger SV3

22%

COL

HSV

Adjusted goals

0.8

2.6

Shot-based xG

2.0

1.6

Non-shot xG

2.3

0.8

8/20

Gladbach1

48%

26%

1. FC Cologne0

26%

MGB

COL

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.8

1.1

Non-shot xG

2.0

1.5

8/20

SC Freiburg0

44%

28%

Eintracht0

29%

FRE

FRA

Adjusted goals

0.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.3

1.6

Non-shot xG

0.7

2.1

8/19

Schalke 042

41%

26%

RB Leipzig0

32%

SCH

RBL

Adjusted goals

2.0

0.0

Shot-based xG

1.7

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.4

1.1

8/19

Hoffenheim1

52%

23%

Werder Bremen0

25%

HOF

BRE

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.8

0.9

Non-shot xG

1.8

0.7

8/19

Hamburger SV1

45%

28%

FC Augsburg0

27%

HSV

AUG

Adjusted goals

1.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.7

0.6

Non-shot xG

1.0

2.2

8/19

Mainz0

60%

24%

Hannover 961

16%

MNZ

HAN

Adjusted goals

0.0

1.1

Shot-based xG

0.6

0.7

Non-shot xG

1.7

0.5

8/19

Hertha BSC2

53%

25%

VfB Stuttgart0

22%

HER

STU

Adjusted goals

2.1

0.0

Shot-based xG

0.4

0.8

Non-shot xG

0.8

0.9

8/19

Wolfsburg0

26%

24%

Dortmund3

50%

WLF

DOR

Adjusted goals

0.0

3.2

Shot-based xG

0.7

1.1

Non-shot xG

0.7

1.8

8/18

Bayern Munich3

80%

13%

Leverkusen1

7%

BMU

LEV

Adjusted goals

3.2

1.1

Shot-based xG

3.1

2.1

Non-shot xG

2.5

2.1

See all&blacktriangledown;

Team rating

avg. simulated season

avg. simulated season

end-of-season probabilities

team

spi

off.

def.

W

D

L

goal diff.

proj. pts.pts.

relegatedrel.

qualify for UCLqualify for UCL

win Bundesligawin league

Bayern Munich13 pts

93.2

3.4

0.4

25.1

5.2

3.8

+61

80

<1%

>99%

62%

Dortmund16 pts

89.2

3.0

0.5

23.2

6.2

4.5

+54

76

<1%

97%

35%

Hoffenheim14 pts

74.3

2.1

0.8

15.7

9.2

9.1

+11

56

<1%

49%

1%

RB Leipzig10 pts

74.4

2.1

0.8

14.4

8.1

11.5

+7

51

2%

30%

<1%

Leverkusen7 pts

75.7

2.3

0.9

14.5

7.7

11.8

+10

51

3%

31%

<1%

Schalke 049 pts

70.9

1.9

0.8

13.6

7.4

12.9

+0

48

4%

20%

<1%

Gladbach8 pts

69.6

2.1

0.9

12.3

9.0

12.7

-5

46

7%

15%

<1%

FC Augsburg11 pts

66.4

1.8

0.8

11.8

9.4

12.8

-4

45

7%

12%

<1%

Wolfsburg6 pts

68.8

1.8

0.8

11.0

10.7

12.4

-4

44

10%

10%

<1%

Eintracht7 pts

67.9

1.7

0.7

11.4

8.7

13.9

-5

43

11%

9%

<1%

Hertha BSC8 pts

66.3

1.6

0.8

10.9

10.0

13.0

-5

43

11%

9%

<1%

Werder Bremen3 pts

68.2

2.0

0.9

10.1

10.1

13.9

-7

40

17%

6%

<1%

Mainz6 pts

65.2

1.8

0.9

10.8

7.4

15.7

-11

40

17%

5%

<1%

Hannover 9612 pts

58.0

1.5

1.0

9.5

10.3

14.2

-15

39

19%

4%

<1%

VfB Stuttgart7 pts

58.9

1.6

1.1

9.2

8.0

16.8

-21

36

31%

2%

<1%

Hamburger SV6 pts

58.3

1.6

1.0

9.1

7.2

17.6

-23

35

35%

1%

<1%

SC Freiburg4 pts

60.7

1.7

1.0

7.7

11.2

15.0

-20

34

36%

1%

<1%

1. FC Cologne1 pt

63.3

1.8

1.0

8.4

8.3

17.3

-22

33

40%

1%

<1%

Forecast from

season

The top two teams from each group qualify for the knockout phase.The third-place team from each group qualifies for the Europa League knockout phase.The third-place finisher from each group in the Champions League — eight teams total — will join the Europa League in the round of 32.The top six teams from each conference — 12 teams total — make the MLS playoffs. The top two teams from each conference receive a first-round bye.The top eight teams at the end of the regular season make the Liga MX playoffs.The top four teams at the end of the regular season make the NWSL playoffs.Three teams are promoted, and four teams are relegated. Depending on the league standings, playoffs for the final promotion and relegation spots may be necessary.Four teams — based on overall performance during the last four seasons — are relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the second-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom two teams are automatically relegated, and the third-to-last team will enter a playoff against a team from the lower division to determine if it is relegated.The bottom team is automatically relegated, and the next two bottom teams will enter a playoff against teams from the lower division to determine if they are relegated.