德国股市受到全球贸易紧张拖累Global trade tensions trouble Germany’s stock market

来源：FT中文网 2018-03-06 16:59

The threat of a global trade war has created a new headwind for a German stock market full of multinational companies, leaving the benchmark Dax index challenging London’s FTSE 100 as the worst performing major European stock market this year.

Although the Dax, which includes just 30 companies, climbed on Monday, BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler, the German carmakers that have been ensnared in the escalating rhetoric between the US and Europe over tariffs, all ended the day lower.

Fears over protectionism have “hit the entire [Dax] index, quite simply because the overall index is such a global one”, said Maximilian Kunkel, UBS’ chief investment officer for Germany. “[Half] of the Dax has sales exposure outside of Europe.”

The blue-chip index, which is a total return index and home to Adidas, Siemens and Bayer, is seen by analysts and investors as a good gauge of the global economy. Last year, it climbed 12.5 per cent, outshining the FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40. Nearly $16bn of net funds has flowed into European equities this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

However, the Dax has fallen 6.4 per cent in local currency terms this year, lagging behind French and Italian equities and leading only the FTSE 100. It is down 3.8 per cent in US dollar terms as the euro has strengthened. Shares in Volkswagen and BMW, two of Germany’s “big three” carmakers, are down nearly 10 and 8 per cent, respectively, so far in March. Daimler, best known for its Mercedes-Benz marque, has fallen 6 per cent on the month.

US President Donald Trump last weekend threatened to “apply a Tax” on cars made by European manufacturers, which he characterised as “freely pour[ing] into the US”. The warning came after European officials upped the ante in a transatlantic war of words over trade, saying they would counteract any US tariffs which penalise European goods.

“At the moment we don’t have a huge amount of clarity as to where this stops. Is it steel specific or a full on trade war?” said Marcus Morris Eyton, a European equities portfolio manager at Allianz, a Munich-headquartered insurer and asset manager.

Germany exports more than it imports: the country had a foreign trade balance of €244.9bn in 2017, according to most recent data from the Statistisches Bundesamt. As “one of the biggest beneficiary of open trade with a large current account surplus, Germany is expected to lose the most if global trade was to be curbed,” RBC analysts noted.