Posts tagged ‘OPEC’

Saudi Arabia is getting deadly serious about the stock market flotation of state oil giant Aramco, just not in London.

Once tipped as a potential host for what could be the world’s largest initial public offering, Brexit chaos and the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn seizing power have significantly diminished the City’s chances of becoming the international home for Aramco’s shares. Missing out would be a blow to prestige, but it could also be a blessing in disguise.

Globalization of natural gas markets, OPEC’s struggle to balance oil supply and price, and platinum coming to the fore as an investment vehicle are all covered in this week’s selection of essential charts from S&P Global Platts editors.

Saudi Arabia has no easy answer to falling oil prices. The kingdom could provoke an international backlash by slashing exports, or open a new war with US shale producers by flooding the market with cheap crude. The former risks the ire of President Donald Trump, but the latter would shatter the fragile economies of its OPEC partners and threaten the IPO of Aramco.

The value of Brent crude has slumped 20% since April and traded for most of last week briefly below $57/b after a slew of bad data tethered the market’s few remaining oil bulls. OPEC’s members led by Saudi Arabia require oil trading closer to $80/b to sustain their high-spending autocratic economies. Higher prices are also a prerequisite for Saudi Aramco’s delayed IPO, despite the state-owned producer reporting almost $47 billion of net income in the first half.

OPEC would be wise to avoid picking a fight with Greta Thunberg. The 16-year-old poster child of the Extinction Rebellion movement wants to bring the fossil fuel era to an abrupt end, regardless of the economic risks. Branding her populist methods an enemy could make big oil an easier target for protesters to aim at.

That is exactly the mistake OPEC’s Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo has made. The head of the oil cartel – which pumps just under a third of the world’s crude – was quoted last week saying that attacks leveled at producers by a “growing mass mobilization of world opinion” had become “perhaps the greatest threat to our industry going forward.”

OPEC is learning the dangers of dealing with the Kremlin. President Vladimir Putin now has the group’s Middle East kingpin Saudi Arabia over a barrel and can name his own terms to continue their partnership.

The oil cartel depends on extending its alliance with Russia to keep restricting supplies if it stands any chance of engineering a quick rebound in prices.

Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, spoke to Paul Hickin about the new oil market dynamics unleashed by US shale production, challenges facing Venezuela, and heightened geopolitical risk.

In 2012, Fatih Birol predicted that the US would become the largest oil producer by the end of the decade. In an exclusive interview with S&P Global Platts at the IEA headquarters in Paris, Birol did not hold back in outlining the impact US supply is now having on OPEC. The ardent supporter of Turkish soccer team Galatasaray, who has never driven a car, is also worried that Middle East producers may score an own goal if they do not diversify their economies quickly.