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Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

I just wish I could see a shock and awe come Monday - sending the Dow up 200 or 300 points to establish a gap up that never gets refilled - that would set the tone going into 2014. Get in now or forever hold your peace. The wall of worry will be we just have to have a 10% correction - maybe we will or not. I'm going to keep accumulating splendid wall flowers until I drop or the sweet thing in the back office says you have hit your limit old man - then I can start to take some capital gains and keep on buying with that money. I have a goal of making +$2M in 2014 and if the Dow runs to 24,000 I may make more than that. Am I a dreamer, of course, am I greedy, of course, will I succeed, of course.

Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

"Another streak for bulls. The S&P 500 has gone 27 months without a downturn of 10 percent or more. That compares with an average streak of 18 months between such declines, according to S&P Capital IQ. Investors who sat out the rally in stocks are now left with a quandary. Do they buy now, with stocks more expensive, or do they stay on the sidelines and risk being left further behind?" I think now that individual investors will push the parabolic rise into a further melt-up - that's fine with me. Every gain I make adds to my buying power. So bring on heavy volume and a VIX under 11 - the time is so right. I want to see a buying panic the opposite of the sell panic of 12/'08 - and an SPX gain of 70 points in one day. You have to know it's out there just waiting. If you don't know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.

Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

"One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is."

Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

Looking back to the first quarterg of 2013 my oceanic account took in a gain of +$495K - if I could be fortunate enough to do that again I'd be in fat city regarding buy power. And I would spend every dime of it going forward. I believe it's time to fully leverage up and at the same time give my sacrificial lamb chop account some attention just in case the bear wants to rip my sticky pants to shreads.

Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree

"One of the biggest mistakes investors make when it comes to trying to time market turns is in thinking that there will be a clear catalyst or sign ahead of time that tells them when the market is about to turn. The truth is that there almost never is."

Re: Birchtree's Account Talk

Originally Posted by markmars

One of the hardest lessons to learn is you can’t time the market, another hard lesson wanting to sell when the market crashes.

You don't have to 'time the market' with everything you've got. Why not have a standard allocation and spice it up with 10%-20% moving around? Then you have a base allocation set to science and a potential for a bit of alpha for fun and - hopefully - profit.

Just remember, to market time you have to make two trades. Gotta time the trade into the market and the trade out of the market - then rinse and repeat. Personally, I like my baseline allocation to take advantage of all those 1%er's trying to stay in the 1%er range. I just know they would hate downsizing from enormous mansions to a McMansion.