Thursday, January 29, 2009

Économie de bouts de chandelles

What I want to draw everyone's attention to now is the future of our favorite Very Costly Jet, and this lovely French 'truism' (roughly translated as 'saving the end of the candle') is apt in this context. The question I've been asked most in the past few weeks is 'What should depositors do?', and I've tried my best to illuminate what MIGHT happen, for those who've contacted me.

A BIT OF BACKGROUND

It's easy to forget, sitting here on wearing our critic's uniform, that there are something like 450 '10%' and 230 '60%' people out there. A lot of them will have had a very nasty shock on the 25th of October, and really don't know where to turn to. A considerable number joined the 'E5C' group, which remained under the control of the 'faithful' throughout this process, some did their own thing (the 'Production Line Group' and those stuck in the ConJet) and a surprising number seem to have been kept in the dark. Many seem to have sent the money, sat back and blissfully ignored what they'd been suckered into.

'We' need to be aware that people reading the blog find it difficult to understand that we're not doing this for the fun of it (alone) but in a sincere effort to prevent further losses by the unwary. So, let's all try to cut the new reader or poster a little slack and make sure to reference the home page for the 'historical' stuff, as well as our little 'Glossary' of common terms.

THE CURRENT POSITION

I should issue a health warning, as in 'this is what we UNDERSTAND' is the current position. Sometime in the next few days the sale of the assets of EAC will complete. At that time, s/n 260 will (finally) be delivered to its owners and will become the LAST ever FPJ shipped by the original company. Thereafter EclipseJet Aviation International (EAI) is the beneficial owner, free of all contracts and liabilities, of the factory and all associated with it. The current fleet loses all warranty or contracted services (JetComplete) and has to pay whatever EAI decides for parts and labor. Under a Court sanctioned deal, the 27 aircraft on the production line will be finished and delivered to their purchasers upon payment of a further $1.375 million. This money is IN ADDITION to all payments made to EAC in the past.

However...

The Production Certificate for the FPJ 'died' with EAC. This means a number of months will pass (average guess is 6) before a new PC issues to EAI. I'm taking from this that it will take at least this long to get the last of these birds out the door and I suspect it will take longer. We know that critical suppliers have abandoned the FPJ, so new ones will need to be integrated, and others will likely be very reluctant to ship without cleared funds.

EASA certification requires full FIKI and AvioNG 1.6 and both of these need full FAA approval. In the revised circumstances, I pretty confident both agencies will be going over the aircraft with a fine toothed comb....

FUTURE PROSPECTS, IF ANY

Basically, those 10% and 60% people are in a real bind. In my opinion, EAI will seek more money, probably quite a lot more money, from this pool. They are already invested in the aircraft and will be under pressure to get something (anything) rather than walk away. So, I expect an offer will go out to these unfortunate depositors which says 'your deposit on s/n xxx has been converted to a coupon with a value of $yyy,000 which can be used to purchase a fully equipped FPJ at $2.5 million'. After some flowery words about a brave new outlook (or similar marketing fluff) the kicker will be something like:- 'In order to secure your position in the new order book, please remit $1.5 million to our bank account by March 1, 2009. The balance of $zzz,000 will be due on delivery. This limited time offer will not be repeated' etc etc.

Now, I'm probably wrong about the numbers, but then I don't work for EAI and I'm not a mind reader. But I know that as soon as these offers reach the depositors, I'll be sent a copy. In fact, I'm promised LOTS of them, which I'll be comparing to make sure they are broadly similar.

Why are depositors going to do this? Well, it might be a surprise, but not all of them trust the sales department at Eclipse anymore....

MY BROAD ADVICE TO DEPOSITORS

When this offer issues, which I'm promised it will be in the next few days, do nothing without taking professional advice. Talk to your lawyers, your accountants and others who've also been involved with this sorry saga. Consider alternatives like the Phenom 100 or the Cessna Mustang, both of which are now in serial production and are from companies with extensive service networks and a credible business plan going forward. Above all don't send any more money to EAI (or anyone else) until you've had a chance to reflect on the angles.

You are welcome to join my 'depositor mailing list', where I'll be contrasting the various offers made around the globe. You name and identity will be protected, as all who've dealt with me will attest, and you may learn enough to save yourselves a small fortune. Just email me at

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

and include 'Depositor' in the subject line. I'll do my best to get back to you promptly with any information I have to hand.

So, we're back to the 'candle' phrase we started with. The French have a fantastic world view, based on a genuine openness to change and a real thirst for adventure. Many of the things we admire in good food, classic wines and creative design flair comes to us with a Gallic flavor and is presented with a superb zest and 'joie de vivre'. As a people, they correctly despise those who regard money as an end in itself. So, I say, don't waste time trying to squeeze something out of this mess. If you have lost in EAC, think very, VERY carefully before adding to you woes....

Shane, Just curious if you have any info on UBS. Are they involved in helping Roel raise any funds for the new company?

This is perhaps for the Poetic Justice category, since CNBC has just reported the new compenstion plan for UBS: apparently, for all Managing Directors, VPs, and higher-ups on the food chain, they will ONLY be paid in stock over the next 3 years with 1/3 vesting each year. This means that if UBS doesn't make any money in 2009, then the bankers don't get paid!!! Ironic for all those that 'consider money an end in itself.' CNBC anchors were rather shocked and predicted this essentially changes the Wall Street compensation plan for all companies instantly, even if POed guys decide to quit. Where else could they go to have the opportunity to make an obscene amount of cash???

And I suspect UBS will be a lot more conservative in recommendations (if any) for investors to get into ANY aviation company...

...the 27 aircraft on the production line will be finished and delivered to their purchasers upon payment of a further $1.375 million. This money is IN ADDITION to all payments made to EAC in the past.

I don't know why anyone would want to pony up another $1.375m and do this, when they can buy a barely used Eclipse 500 today for around $1 million. There is an E500 with only 15 hrs on it for $1.25m asking - that's about as new as you can get.

Anyone who still wants to buy an E500, after all that has happened, can have one within a few days for a lot less money and risk than dealing with another new and unproven company.

Oh yes, I know what you mean. Finance guys... yuck! I couldn't stand 'em when at John Hancock, though I'm sure my experience there counts only as a 'fringe' finance-related company...

I just don't understand what is happening lately. Even Textron is down more than 32% today and Cessna has announced another 2,000 job cuts. I dunno, but maybe we shouldn't be telling people burned on EAC to rush out and buy a Mustang. If anyone reading this has the $$$ to buy a plane, my God, DON'T. Stay liquid and hold on to your wealth to see how this all plays out. As Dennis Miller said, that's just my opinion, but I could be wrong...

I dunno, but maybe we shouldn't be telling people burned on EAC to rush out and buy a Mustang. If anyone reading this has the $$$ to buy a plane, my God, DON'T.

Amen to that.

But there is a common thread in the emails and phone calls I'm getting. A number of these people actually NEED a jet, for business purposes. They didn't order an FPJ as an ornament, they wanted to fly the d@#m thing.

I've also introduced some to the idea of a fast turboprop like the TBM 850 or a BIG turboprop like the Pilatus PC-12. Some have even talked about a second hand CJ.

Lets' be honest with ourselves. The Wedge built a BIG order book, which contains a kernel of people who have a real need. The fact that he lied, repeatedly, to inflate both it and his own ego should not deflect us from the fact that there is, even now, a market for small jets.

It's not as big as Roel thinks it is, but it is there. And therein lies the problem. Roel is scaled for volume production, and the market is VERY price sensitive. To keep a grip on his depositors he will have to offer attractive terms, which will limit his margin.

Now follow that logic to the end of the line. On a smaller margin, he has to deliver (and get paid for) additional volume to make himself a return.

Pretty soon he's trying to build up volume, but can't afford the production capacity to do it. The same vicious circle that killed EAC seem likely to do the same to EAI.

I agree with you, hence the closing line from my headline today.

If you have lost in EAC, think very, VERY carefully before adding to you woes....

I dunno, but maybe we shouldn't be telling people burned on EAC to rush out and buy a Mustang. If anyone reading this has the $$$ to buy a plane, my God, DON'T. Stay liquid and hold on to your wealth to see how this all plays out.

I actually have the opposite take on this. I wouldn't say go out and buy a new aircraft, but I think now is the time to get bargains in the secondary market. If you're rich enough to buy a jet, you have an opportunity right now to become even richer by picking up assets in firesales. With that being said, a jet might not be the best item as an investment, but now would certainly be the time to pick up a jet for personal use when the prices are low.

It is also the BEST time to be paid 100% in stock. Financial stocks are so battered, 3 years from now they may be 300-400% higher. Just watch 3-5 years from now when these execs cash their shares for $1B+ and see the outcry.

Fred NO ONE from Bear Stearn had a salary of $500M, not even $50M. CEO might have had around $5M. The outrageous CEO/Wall St compensation you complain of, came about because a decade or so earlier, people were jealous of CEOs making $1M+. So congress passed laws that pay above $1M was not tax deductible unless it was tied to performance. That is when all the equity/performance bonus packages came into being, with the absolutely predictable result. Compensation shot through the roof.

Now, UBS and others are shifting even more compensation to equity and compensation will further escalate. Just watch.

And I think a CEO managing a money losing, down economy company like Citi or Ford, etc should be compensated much more highly than one managing a fair-weather steadily profitable company like Pfiser, Microsoft, etc.

So this reward for profits is totally misplaced. The only way to compensate executives is based on the relative performance of their company compared to similar situated peer group.

Maybe one day we will get there. And if Fords decreases the amount of money it loses faster than GM and Chrysler, the CEO should be justly compensated, even if they file for Ch11 or liquidate. He is being paid to manage a difficult situation.

Shane said... The French have a fantastic world view, based on a genuine openness to change and a real thirst for adventure .

You've got to be kidding me, right Shane? French and openness to change in the same sentence? Didn't they teach you anything in Editor school? ;)

This from a country that legislates out using English words on shop display windows and the like, and limits the amount of foreign music that can be played in the radio.

I love the French, don't take me wrong. But I love them for their convincing stubbornness to fight change and progress. After all, something like a Jag XFR seems even more beautiful when it drives past a Citroen. ;)

"After all, something like a Jag XFR seems even more beautiful when it drives past a Citroen."

Would that be the TATA motors Jaguar? You know the Indian company who bought Jaguar from Ford a few month ago and recently hit up the British government for a BILLION pounds to stay afloat? Sounds like socialism to me. British AND Indian socialism.

Yesterday a company filed bankruptcy. The BK involved a several companies. The largest of which were Renegade Tobacco and Alternative Brands. These companies are located in Mocksville, NC. In the BK filings they list a note to Blue Ridge Aviation. Blue Ridge shows to be an owner of Eclipse 500 Serial Number 203. My question is this....Does anyone know for certain if Blue Ridge Aviation is owned by Mr. Calvin Phelps, owner of Renegade Tobacco and Alternative Brands. Both companies are discount cigarette manufacturers.

airsafetyman said... Would that be the TATA motors Jaguar? You know the Indian company who bought Jaguar from Ford a few month ago and recently hit up the British government for a BILLION pounds to stay afloat?

Yep. That same one. The one that provided me with a $14K cash incentive and average (not great) lease deal on a brand new XF Supercharged.

I love all the foreign govmt subsidy. I just enjoyed 1440 degree (that is four full turns) power slide on the beach park (20F outside so it was deserted) to celebrate.

Why can't they subsidize planes?!? Why. BTW AOPA Pilot put a Baron on the cover touting it as "You've Finally Arrived" - how cheesy is that - ruining the image of a great but obsolete airframe.

Oh, and the best part about the XF... If some of my Prius-driving peers ask me what I drive, I can say oh a "subsidized Indian car" without feeling conspicuous.

yes you are right ...CEO at Bears Stern was NOT making the 500.000$ average salary ...

he was making only some 25.000$ an hour ! (sorry for the ones who give sweat and blood only for a tenth of this ...)

i got that from a former colleague in charge of auditing this mess ...literally and to use his own words " no wonder why the card-castle collapsed = never seen such a pile a stupidity , blindness and self-sufficiency as this one before ..."

he added " if there is a relation between what a CEO is getting and his results in managing ... do stock-holders and members of boards believe than someone costing 100 times more is going to be 100 times more efficient ? "

just to give you a very personal experience : a few years ago (before the madness took over the inflated ego of some finance guys ...)i was working in "Risk analyze dept." of a US bizz-bank in London ... my head of department decided to resign because the said bank gave him a bonus of ONLY 600.000 British Pounds (at a time where 1£ = 1.8$) ... he considered that they were cheating him ... reminder: it was before all this crazy times (gone for a generation , i hope and think ...) and we were working in the Dept. getting the most lousy bonuses !

Being jealous for a lousy Million salary ...???

you're definitely not working with the right persons ...!

or you're forgetting about all side-advantages and bonuses ... which are parts of earnings , no ?

with the near Trillion Tax-payers money which is going to be spread onto the country , there is 2 Main options and 2 different outcome for one of them ...

1° the Plan works ...quite doubtful , never heard of a fire stopped by pouring some more fuel on it ...

it is either much too high of a sum to cure a disease installed since a (too?) long time inside the minds ...

the cure is quite simple , it is about down-to-earth-knowledge :

"One rabbit cooked in the pot is always much better than 2 still running in the bush ...!"

or very far from being enough !

2° the plan DOESN'T work ... then 2 different outcomes

a) Deflation , severe deflation ... with a market value on housing down of some 30%+ in some areas in USA , one can say what it is like ... don't worry in this outcome 30% losses is already very nice ...BTW , where is not many to be done when deflation strikes ... last time something of same size hit the planet , it took a World War to fix it ...!

b) Hyper-inflation :

if you spread more money in a place where 90% of the problem occur following a stupidly-mad expansion of monetary mass what can happen ?

so in case of this outcome , YES it can be some kind of a nearly good idea to have some REAL value to protect yourself of Hyper-Inflation ...

the trick is to know what to buy , where and at what price ...

so anything that can be written on paper = i would avoid like the plague ...!

because stocks rising of some 300 or 400 % in the next few years is EXTREMELY HIGHLY UNLIKELY !

why ?

Exactly the same problem than EAC : a firm producing nothing of value has itself a value of ???

5...4...3...2...1...0

Value = Zip , Nada , Nothing !

Internet Bubble is over for at least a generation ...

i suspect (and hope) that investors in the next few years are going to be careful about where they put their money ...

AND remember this very simple rule : when someone promise you the moon , ask in what metal is made the ladder ... ;-)

(real dividend and real rising value are ONLY the fruit of REALITY and REAL added richness ... NEVER out of empty promises !)

and finally , you are not so wrong about the capacity of the French population toward changes ...

the fact is that frenchs are more open that you will ever be ...

(your sentence about Monsieur Shane having to learn this from other hands , means to me , that you believe the world-order is set for ever in a learn able way ... i really wish not to be around when you will wake-up to find that the world keep turning ... with or without you !)

IN a complete different manner , i agree !!

we like to find our own way , ourself ...!! might be disturbing for others , but honestly , we don't give a damn about what other think on ourself ...!

all the blindness that you proved by stating your view means only one thing :

you don't know enough to judge !

and about what is on radio (TV works the same ...) it is even simpler ... it is none of your business !

how about you becoming french , get elected and , once in the parliament , change the law ?

or simply be democratic and respect other's ideas , especially if it is in a place where actually , you've got nothing to say ...

the attitude to their jobs is best shown by Mr. Thain.1. Crashing Merrill Lynch2. Creeping under BoA's coat3. Requesting a bonus (avoidance of more loss)4. Ignoring his Company's financial situation5. Bad lack, igorant bosses or BoD ignore the rules

BTW: Mr. Madoff is not in jail - why? Who dares to say: Yes he gave a ROI of xx% for y years - now my money is gone - he is criminal! (I am not a fan of Robin Hood!)

Banks sell certs they do not understand?But suddenly there are huge write-offs - no good will write-offs?

I digress...

Is there really a need for the full EASA-cert for the fpj?I had a look at EMBEAER's Phnom 100 floor plan comparison!It shows quite nicely that the fpj is just tiny. No big achievment to keep it light - perhaps only a need to reduce the cert standard...

I saw a youtube interview with Christian Dries of Diamond who says of the D Jet, "The speed of 320 kt is assured. If you will be content to go a little slower, you can go at 290 kt burning 180 litres per hour or just a little slower and burn 145 litres." Maybe someone more clever than I can post it here. It was mainly about the DA42 twin, but Dries made a few jet comments near the end of the 10 minute clip.

So 290 kt at 315 pph. Does this seem reasonable or possible? This is almost exactly the same as the Meridian going 30 knots slower at a higher altitude. Any comments from the readers here?

you know, if you print money or a note happens to fall on you copy machine... and by chance you mix it up with a real note and use it, you will get a nice room for some time.

If you have a nice idea, ask you laywer, print your ideas (you call that certification - not note!), sell itthen you are an investment ba(n)ker - even if you copied other people idea?And the idea consists only of "if"s?

Back to your example: In US the match maker might get troubles - remember the discussion about the responsibilities of hand fire arms producers (Glock: where to sell the ex police pistols - in the next state?)!

Yes, there is a big big pond...and we have the Rhein or Rhin once and a while...

Are the WIP-parts (partial fpj) a real advantage?If the FAA inspector cannot check all parts and the way of assembly,wouldn't the inspector really be reluctant to give his ok, his signature?

What about the the employees?Only 12 weeks wonders plus our exec team?

Perhaps the Eclipse owners could come up with a vastly simplified tail section... an empennage with no moving parts. The occupants could use center-of-gravity shift for control, like a Rogallo wing hang glider.

Hello Adam,I think that is what our new friend Bassmaster was referring to regarding shipping Grand Prairie (Texas) tooling "south"- as in to South America (Chile- sorry Gadfly, not Hatch, NM), where ENAER already builds the nose section (see BassMaster and my exchange last thread).Thanks for the tidbits BassMaster, like Adam, I was perplexed by the missing tail- I don't think the EA-500 was like a lizard (unlike the former CEO), and if it's tail is cut off (or tail supplier), it won't grow back on it's own.

I don't understand how the PC was lost. After 30+ years in the industry, I think this is NOT the norm.

Although I have never been deeply involved in a change like this, my guess is that the PC, particularly with a post-BK takeover would only require a re-approval (by the FAA) of the management structure.

Seems like more is taking place here, like maybe a revokation of the PC.

Unlike the type certificate, the production certificate is non-transferable between companies. In this case through it is not a totally new company starting up in a new location, though. The workers, plant, jigs, parts stock, etc will all be the same, as you mention it is mostly new management and perhaps new priorities, policies and procedures. The FAA will have to take the time to reassure themselves that the new company can build aircraft to the type certificate safely and then they will issue a new PC.

The process shouldn't be as extensive as a new issuance, but it won't be a mere formality, either.

...So is there actually any information that indicates that ENAER is building tails?...

My office is next door to a couple of air freight companies handling international shipments. A few days ago I saw something looking very much like a new unprimed EA50 tail in a crate on the back of a flatbed truck.

Hi AAE,It is nice to see you posting again.I am sure there are others with more familiarity with the subject, but I believe the FAA can "pull" a PC anytime they have concerns, and in fact it is standard when a company "changes ownership"- the TC is part of the sales package, but PC must be reapplied for. I think it is the FAA's discretion whether to rubber stamp the new application for PC, or scrutinize it with individual aircraft inspections (as seems to be this case). It probably depends upon the magnitude of the changes involved with the change of ownership. Given EAC's configuration (and it's former CEO) were never very stable anyway, I suspect this is a justified and prudent action on the FAA's part.I think the fact the assembly lines have "spooled down", and there has no doubt been substantial turnover in manufacturing and inspection personnel (and potentially vendors) is also a contributing factor.

BassMaster- good scoop on the tail section! UglyABQ, thanks for the "assist"!

Adam, I looked too, and didn't see any press release on the tail section- I suspect vendors are proceeding with some trepidation lest they too loudly (and prematurely) associate themselves with EAI.

I DO consider it a fairly significant development, that there is new hardware coming in though- this must have been orchistrated some months ago, with the logistics and training involved. If I were clever, there is probably some FAA data base for supplier's that would reflect the status of components approved for Eclipse- or maybe this is why the FAA will be individually inspecting the first airframes.

The process shouldn't be as extensive as a new issuance, but it won't be a mere formality, either.

Given how the FAA basically said "mistakes were made" during the congressional hearing about what happened with Eclipse the first time, I don't think the FAA would want themselves dragged back before congress. The only reason I could think of the FAA not going really tough on Eclipse 2.0 would be if Richardson was in the Cabinet, but now he's disgraced nationally and is losing support in NM.

we have a tendency to see certain "developments" as fatal... when they have proven not to be. We need to remain metered, and remember

1- we do not have a perfect pciture2- other's opinions are valid, sometimes moreso than ours3- EAC has $3B worth of entropy... so their total evaporation will take a long time. 4- many people who make BIG mistakes, are still thinking/investing in EAC2.0, so stay tuned.

Predicting the demise because of a PC seems amateur-hour. There's no reason they do not understand the realities associated with the PC, or the suppliers.

I am not saying these problems are already 100% resolved, but they are fairly easy, even give all the basic business issues they face.

The single question I seem to be focused on, is "where's the beef?".

Everyone, suppliers, investors, customers, seem to miss the point on the viability of the product, given the real market and volume/price for this plane.

Hence, I ASK: what's the most ever paid for an EA50? If the answer is $3M...OK? Even $2.5M..OK.... but there's nothing north of around $1.5M.

Insanity sets back in when a model requires "volume" prduction for this plane, and pricing that is competitive with the real OEMs.

I personally don't care about much of the little details on this blog. I just want to see a market for a $2.5M EA%)... and you know what? It is really, really small, if at all. IMO.

So, I do not predict demise at any point. The incinerator is just getting back on line, and I see no reason someone elses money won't find its way down the EAC-pooper.

DepositorsSuppliersInvestorsGovernment

All enamoured with this little campfire called EAC. Money to stoke the little problems, long enough to find more money to stoke the bigger problems.

Shadow,Regarding those floorboards...I reckon the FAA will (finally!) have full cooperation (almost to the extreme) from EAI, given the crappy reputation they are no doubt trying to overcome.

Dave,"Given how the FAA basically said "mistakes were made" during the congressional hearing about what happened with Eclipse the first time..."

I think this might actually work to EAI's favor- I figure with new management, the FAA won't have a (justifiable) axe to grind, and will play this one as by-the-book as they can, also to salvage their reputation. (I feel badly for the foot soldiers- they got dumped on by DC; that's not going to happen this time- no how, no way).

The FAA TC and PC guys are the industry's best, despite the slur the industry's worst, Wedge, insinuated. They will treat EAI professionally, and I expect EAI will reciprocate.

3- EAC has $3B worth of entropy... so their total evaporation will take a long time.

All enamoured with this little campfire called EAC. Money to stoke the little problems, long enough to find more money to stoke the bigger problems.

ATM,

I think there's a nugget there. EAC spun up so much attention and energy with it's $3B, that people see the result of that and assume something meaningful and important must be going on. But there isn't. It was just a lot of noise about an ill conceived product that wasn't executed very well.

What might have been is irrelevant except for the inertia of all of the spending and marketing that went on. You're right, there is no magic beef patty in the middle of this.

Some here say things like there's a viable business for 50 FPJs a year. Oh really? At what price? For what buyers? There are not really many people like Ken who would place much value in a slightly lower fuel burn. If you're going to spend north of $2.5M on an aircraft, those deltas aren't meaningful -- trust me, I know this from first hand experience.

My read of this is that we are no where near the bottom of this downturn. Things are going to get worse, much worse. Jet prices will fall another 20% or 30% in the next few months, and jet fuel prices will go back up. Whatever price would support a positive margin for EAI will become a ridiculous price compared to the alternatives.

airtaximan said... we have a tendency to see certain "developments" as fatal... when they have proven not to be. We need to remain metered

Very nice post ATM. The entropy comment is very smart. It is in fact hard to kill something that once had or appeared to have great momentum (i.e. money and hype) behind it.

Bricklinng said ... So 290 kt at 315 pph. Does this seem reasonable or possible? This is almost exactly the same as the Meridian going 30 knots slower at a higher altitude

Bricklinng, actually both the Meridian and D-Jet have the same (FL250) ideal and maximum cruise altitude. The Meridian due to an extremely low VMO can't even cruise at Max continuous power (which is already flatrated) until that level.

The DJet is obviously (just look at it) a much cleaner airframe, cruising at the same altitude. 300 KTS has traditionally been the cut off speed where turbofans become more efficient than turbojets. There are exceptions (e.g. Piaggio), but at 320KTAS the Djet would be operating at a cruise speed where trubofans are reasonably efficient.

The Djet is a bit heavier (MTOW), but also a bit smaller - so lets call it a wash.

So, on balance, yes, it sounds reasonable that the Djet would be just as efficient as the Meridian at FL250. If either has an edge in fuel burn/nm, it would be a small edge.

The real issue though is that the DJet would suffer much more than the Meridian if forced to cruise low, which is turn suffers much more than the Mirage. Down low, piston efficiency >> Tprop efficiency >> fan jet efficiency.

Well, I was able to fly a Mustang today, and can confirm that it will do 352 kts at FL350, 5 adults on board, full fuel, std ISA day, burning 90gph. That is about 15 kts better than the book says it will do.

It exceeded my expectations in every category except for two - the rear seats don't recline, and there is very little pressurized storage. On the other hand, the unpressurized storage areas are huge considering the size of the aircraft, and the other 2 passenger seats recline nearly all the way.

Other impressions: it was quieter than I expected, allowing for normal conversation between the pilot and the rear seats in cruise. The panel is VERY well thought out - the autopilot is awesome as is the G1000. Admittedly, it was a little overwhelming for the first half hour or so, but I think that after 25 hours in the plane I'll be able to fly it blindfolded because it has no character flaws and no surprises. Anyone used to flying a high performance twin will have no problem at all in this plane. I loved the 10 degrees nose up climb out. Lots of power. Pressurization was seamless. The storage cabinets were well laid out and well thought out. In fact, everything was well thought out.

I have a lot of twin piston and twin turboprop time, but I felt that this was more like flying a single engine plane except for the fact that it had two engines. With the FADEC the engines pretty much sound like one engine, act like one engine, and killing an engine on climbout went completely unnoticed by the passengers. I wouldn't have known it myself if I hadn't seen it happen. It has a big plane feel, rock solid and handled the turbulence better than any aircraft I've flown.

The trailing link gear even made my first landing smooth. I believe we touched down around 87 kts. It is a very docile plane - I've got around 2300 hrs in various aircraft and this is probably one of the most predictable aircraft I've ever flown. After only one hour in the plane, I think I could get it in the air and probably fly it anywhere and land safely as long as it was VFR. I wouldn't, of course, but It's that easy.

Very Nice, NZ. You can never go wrong with a Citation. You can get a bit more speed, a bit more this and that with other brands, but a Citation will always provide good honest value.

And I do think the C510 is the best Citation yet. And I do mean that. It has the nicest cabin layout for the size. Too bad for the rear seat backs - they are in fact basically vertical, bordering on uncomfortable when you sit in them, and my kids don't like to fly backwards.

9Z,I think the blog is on the edge of our collective seats, waiting for you to fly an Eclipse, and give us a comparison!

Any possiblity you will be doing that- it sounds like you are understandably pumped on the Mustang, and it's systems, and it's value (particularly with it being a "buyer's market" as Baron and others note). But for comparison, particularly handling qualities, your observations would be very interesting.

Quite some time back, I think Ken visited Cessna to check out the Mustang, but I can't remember if they were certified or not when he was there.

I would appreciate his input on relative flying qualities also- given the centerline thrust rating, I suspect engine outs would be insignificant events for passengers as well, if the pressurization system doesn't burp.

"It is in fact hard to kill something that once had or appeared to have great momentum (i.e. money and hype) behind it."

yeah, from my perspective, I still cannot believe it had so much financial and industry support, given what it really is. And, so the idea that it remains "alive" is even more remarkable.

How are they going to find customers for a $2.xM EA50... is well... the real question. The financial "donations" which keep this company "alive" may continue for a long time... but the value proposition for the product is gone - the cheap jet is now as expensive as the competition.

I would scrape around to find a world class competency that EAC-2.0could leverage, but I do not think there is even one... except money-rasing, and that guy is gone.

So... I wait to see the "new" plan. The one that gets the cost way down, or the one that somehow finds customers for the plane at 3x the intial offering price, and even at that price, they lack a real order book for sustaiinable volume production and the delivery of the ea50 at that "value" price.

ATM,I think the old marketing plan was to rake in deposits for an airplane advertised at $1.5M, with two thirds of the buyers figuring they could turn it for $2.2M as long as the nearest competitor, the Mustang, was $3M or so. This scheme manufactured more customers (and deposits) than airplanes.

No "flippers" (hmmm, or is that "flip floppers"?) in this new crowd of buyers- so I'd guess there would be around 150-200 customers per year that Eclipse would have to target, if the economy were better.

With "things be suck'n" like they are now, I'd guess the market is around 75-125 per year, which is still historically pretty decent.

If EAI can squeak out 15% margin, and let's say 100 aircraft at $2.25M, that comes out to around that would be around $35M profit per year. Now, figure 50 upgrades the existing fleet per year, at $300K each, and that comes out to around $15M profit per year. That's about $50M per year, profit, and through in some service work for the un-warrantied fleet, and it's easy to see RP doubling his $28M down payment.

That's a pretty good "holding pattern", until the economy picks up. I see the real challenge getting those first 100 built though- tough credit market, skeptical buyers, even more skeptical investors.

I think EAI will go out of their way to ensure customer satisfaction with the first few dozen airplanes- after that, as things get potentially "more challenging" (or, maybe not), I'd caution customers to ALWAYS have their airplane DELIVERED, and locked in their own hangar, with law enforcement witnesses / actionees present, before signing the final check though. Don't be lulled into complacency because they've delivered X dozen- that's just the ploy Wedge used. I don't think of RP as Wedge-lite, but it still is wise to be prudent.

I don't know if that's workable, but I wouldn't do it any other way for the next 18 months. And for what it's worth, it does sound like the "confiscation" of sn 260 was "by the book"- I'm glad the owner is getting it back through court decree though. (Having the airplane delivered to your own hangar, allows you to use a different book).

The ONLY thing that would make sense for a viable financial go at it would be something like:

A - Putin pulled RP aside and said:"We want to develop a Business Aviation capability in Russia. We will guarantee you customers, funding, factories without red tape, etc, etc, etc".

or

B - Mann and RP and friends really want to be involved in Business Aviation as a semi-hobby, credibility builder. Some people with money buy football franchises, some do philanthropy, some like to start and run companies in a "cool" field. Look at Pickens - modern version of Don Quixote with the wind mills.

But I agree with you. If you do a cold, hard, business analysis on the prospects of Eclipse making money, absent "continued donations", it is hard to imagine it.

But then, the same can be said of Piper and Mooney and ...

My personal believe is that "there is more to the story". There are behind the scenes deals, promises, guarantees, etc. Which is not to say they'll come to pass. Putin had a big stick 6 months ago with oil at $145. Now his "stick" shrank with the cold water of the oil crash.

Lets see if he will build Biz Jet co in Russia or the 5 nuclear carriers he talked about last year.

Price of a 300 hour Mustang on Controller down to $2.6M. It won't be long before we see one for $2.5M. Of course, to fly one you have to go to school for 2 weeks for the type rating, and I hear that it's very tough, with a significant flunk-out rate.

EA 500 SN 29 now listed on controller for $999,999. Now that asking prices have broken through $1mm, I expect strong downward price movement. Actually, I expect that it will be close to impossible to find buyers at any price for until the support and training issues are more clearly resolved.

you are correct, there are unknown unknowns, at work here... so I do not predict.

One thing we know is, the "cheap jet" is gone, there is a little market for a $2.5M EA50... which means there's no business case whatsoever.

I remember a few "friends of Vern" who promised to buy a lot of planes... guess what, this works for money rasing and fails when anyone needs to make maoney operating the plane, to keep the "orders" coming.

Its so sad, it not a joke. BUT, its kinda funny when you step back and think that we are now talking about heafty "promises" of orders as being the only way they can really keep the story alive.

Notice, I did not say "business".

Perhaps they should just donate the equipment to a University, and continue the college project? Fund it with grants and donations to a "School of Aviation".

"Eclipse Aviation introduced an in-house mandatory training program for customers of its Eclipse 500 very light twinjet that includes pilot qualification and supplemental training by the University of North Dakota aerospace department. Jet-transition and type-rating courses will be provided free of charge with each Eclipse 500 purchased. A mandatory type-training admission evaluation will cost between $500 and $750. The jet-transition course is slated to begin next summer".---------------------------------

I don't know if any UND students were hoping to catch some Eclipse time- if so, they ought to be finishing their PhD's by now....----------------------------------

An Eclipse endowed chair in the school of aviation? Or business? HA HA HA.

(More like deviant psychology! .)

BTW, I tried to pull this article off the link to the Eclipse site- looks like they've deleted all the press releases and news articles.

Doubt that will happen any time soon, however I'm sure our friend Ken is right - the E500 is probably a good performer. Marginally better than the Mustang. But I would expect no less because it is a smaller plane with a much smaller cabin. Just like a Mooney is faster than a Mirage - but which would you rather fly cross country in?

There did happen to be an Eclipse parked on the ramp as I taxied up - my wife pointed it out and smiled at me and I could tell she was thinking the same thing as me - yuck! Huge difference in ramp appeal. And the closer you get to either, the more difference you see in fit and finish.

A final thought - I really prefer a yoke to a side stick. I've flown a Cirrus, and while I do like the plane I do miss a traditional yoke. I'm glad the other manufacturers are not following Eclipse's lead on the side stick.

So yeah, I'm a bit enamored with the Mustang. I have high expectations and they were met, or in this case exceeded (a very rare but happy occurrence!).

I think you've answered this one for me,"Doubt that will happen any time soon..."

I would need to have a credible trade in to snag a sales flight demo.(Although, as EA-500 prices continue to drop, and Ercoupe prices continue to rise, perhaps this is not as far off as it might seem).

As I reflected on your comments "5 adults on board, full fuel...big plane feel", I realized that the Eclipse is not the best fit for your intentions.

"The trailing link gear even made my first landing smooth...this is probably one of the most predictable aircraft I've ever flown. After only one hour in the plane, I think I could get it in the air and probably fly it anywhere and land safely as long as it was VFR."

Those statements are what caught me eye, and made me wonder how you would compare it to Eclipse, as they are almost identical to what I've heard from those familiar with the EA-500.

As was your experience, friends and strangers that have flown the Mustang give it's flying qualities high marks, and it's the same with the Eclipse: I haven't heard from anyone who has flown both for a comparison.

Alas, the world may never know...Until Flying Mag or AvWeek goes for a spin. (Wonder when the heck that is going to happen. Flying the darn thing to the airport nearest to their offices is the single best thing Eclipse marketing could do. Maybe in the past there was some sentiment for a debut featuring "Avio-MAX", but since we are experiencing an "Eclipse ain't dead yet" debut, I think it would be prudent to get some good press about the Eclipse's strengths, even if it exposes some (?temporary?) avionics shortcomings.---------------------------------

"I believe we touched down around 87 kts".Ditto for an ERcoupe, if you're comfortable using 100% power.

One thing we know is, the "cheap jet" is gone, there is a little market for a $2.5M EA50... which means there's no business case whatsoever.

ATM,

Actually, the cheap jets are back with a vengeance, but of course none of them are brand new. One should be able to get a slightly used FPJ for the original price of $837.5K any day now. There are only about 250 that might become available, but that may exceed the available demand anyway. :)

Did it this way so that web search engines do not cache the pdf files.

The password hint is on the website and inside the zip file comments. See the Critics' Glossary (top left of screen) for the answer or simply type wedge (small letters, no caps) in the file password dialog :)

Sorry, I thought it was obvious. But please let me know if it does not work.

(Enough so, I'll give Wedge a "pass" on 9Z's comment,"...it has no character flaws and no surprises":)----------------------------------

BUT,I wish Gadfly would have allowed me to relax and enjoy the morning.

Instead, I've been surfing around for looking for a) the diameter of the XP-35 propeller on the front of a B-17(No luck yet- it sure looks large!!).Converted B-17(Don't know if this is an "airbrush" with the other four engines missing, or not, but they really did put a big honking turboprop in the nose, with the intent of using six of them later on in the original B-52 design).

From the Ventura County (Calif) Comets (R/C Club), Jan 2008 newsletter, the answer is probably the Bear Bomber, with 15,000-ish engines, and a prop diameter of 18'4"-20'4" (various models, I suppose):Comet's Tale, Jan 2008(These guys are some SERIOUS propeller heads!!)

The correct answer, which sadly means no one wins the customary pint of Guinness is...

$2,195,000

Yes folks, right to the very end EAC screwed with delivery positions and serial numbers. Someone really did pay the 'new price'....

This means they got their aircraft well out of sequence from one of the EAC 'reserved' slots for special purposes. Remember the eBay auction or John Travoltas' free FPJ? Well this one resulted in a particularly unlucky chap parting with almost $2.2 million.

And there's more from the inbox.

Yes, my trusty Super Bowl spectators, it's

SNIPPET TIME

I don't want anyone to lose too much sleep over this, but it appears the sale DID NOT CLOSE on Friday, as scheduled.

Sadly, it seems that Roel was unable to come up with the money. What a stunning surprise! Seems some 'friends' of his were a bit slow stumping up the cash. But it should all be ok. Roel says he needs a week to get things ironed out, and has paid the staff on Friday using some (more) DIP financing he managed to lay his hands on.

Hmmmm....

You know, the more I think about this, the more I suspect some of the critical suppliers just won't (or maybe can't) play ball. After all, unless the ENTIRE bird gets finished, no one will pay for it.

Especially in this revised, post Chapter 11 climate, with nervy lawyers lurking under every paint flaw and loose fitting.

Sadly, it seems that Roel was unable to come up with the money. What a stunning surprise! Seems some 'friends' of his were a bit slow stumping up the cash. But it should all be ok. Roel says he needs a week to get things ironed out, and has paid the staff on Friday using some (more) DIP financing he managed to lay his hands on.

OK, so Roel bought Eclipse with money that was supposed to have been handed over months ago to keep Eclipse going and he was claiming that the bulk of the rest was coming from the Russian factory financing, so that really calls into question the validity of his bid...or is he trying to do something else? If he's financing the company with the DIP, why can't he pay? Him not honoring the deal now only benefits him since whatever he puts into the DIP, he'll get right back once he caughs up the cash. Maybe he wants to claim to have financial troubles (but not enough financial troubles to prevent him putting into the DIP) and keeping the DIP so that he gets all his cash back? Either way he's gotta pay to keep the business open, so he might as well make the sellers pay for as long as possible, which might be how he sees it.

I think someone on this blog "predicted" this condition, whereby Roel did not have a lot of money, or did have a lot of money.

Bottom line, if he doesn't have a lot MORE than just this earmarked cash (and it appears as if even this amount is hard to caugh up) it does not matter who you are in the food chain or what you thought you would get from them for your deposit/progress payment, IOUs, upgrades, etc....

So, it would appear that things are a lot shakier than we might have expected... and I maintain, IF RP does not have at least $100M in the bag for EAC right now... you can pretty much just stop thinking about any real future.

If he does, he should have been more fair with suppliers and especially depositors who were screwed, blued and tatooed.

Bottom line, if he doesn't have a lot MORE than just this earmarked cash (and it appears as if even this amount is hard to caugh up) it does not matter who you are in the food chain or what you thought you would get from them for your deposit/progress payment, IOUs, upgrades, etc....

Also Eclipse (headed by Roel) made a big deal about the financial abilities of other bidders - if I'm not mistaken. I don't know what the legal impact would be, but I wouldn't think it would be pleasant to make a big deal about bidders having financial viability in their bids and then having the insider bidder not have financial viability with this fact not verified by seller (which the seller stated they would verify the bidders' finances, if I'm not mistaken) due to the huge conflict of interest. Anyway, if Roel is having these problems or is prentending to have these problems, perhaps this will let others have another bite at the apple in getting concessions and whatnot. At this point whenever Roel uses the DIP, it is just taking money away from the creditors.

Shane,Thanks for the info on $2.2M for an Eclipse. Back when Mustangs were pulling in a premium, this probably didn't seem like such a bad deal, especially considering the buyer apparently wanted one right now (and probably could not have obtained a Mustang or Eclipse right away otherwise without a premium).

Personally, I reckon there are some more lined up to pay that, right now. (Not a lot more, but some). Mostly folks with the longer view that the market will improve in time (and oil, hence fuel, will be going up again also).

(Hmmm, I wouldn't discount the possibility he was a novelity collector of sorts either, else he might have considered a used one).

Observation: the fellow that paid $2.2M and GOT his airplane, is feeling more fortunate than those with tax writeoffs for 60% progress payments and NO airplane.---------------------------------

Regarding the sale not closing due to lack of cash, and the DIP financing: I imagine this is more a tussle between RP and Mr. Mann, with some minor details to be worked out I suppose. (I might be wrong, but I thought it was Mr. Mann that put up the DIP financing?).

I think this is probably not a big bump in the road (?er, to ruin, or otherwise?, tbd...), but none the less, an inopportune one- especially with regard to starting operations off with a more confidence inspiring corporate presence, which for customers, and particularly for suppliers, will be crucial for the next six months (until reason for confidence has been established).

This evening, the movie on cable, “WGN” Chicago, is “Groundhog Day”. Why do I see a similarity? . . . Same old, same old . . . over and over and over. Unfortunately, “Eclipse” will not have the same “happy ending” as Bill Murray . . . and the old “tramp on the street”. Remember him? . . . and those Eclipse employees that were treated like so many discarded workers . . . to be “used” when convenient, and then . . . well, disregarded, when “convenient”. (Or should I have said, “discarded”?)

‘Sorry to add this “bump in the road”, in the discussion.

gadfly

(Actually, No! . . . I’m not a bit sorry for bringing up the past. Eclipse has done no favors to many people . . . regardless of all the excuses and rationalization.)

even if i agree that the victim (sorry customer) that bought a Fpj for 2.2M$ has got some luck in getting what he paid for ...

i don't really share your optimism about future ...

just put yourself in the furnisher's seat : after many broken promises , many stunts , many losses ...

the ones considering not deserting the field can see this :

EAC is dead , it has cost an arm and may be a leg for a few suppliers ...

now it is replaced by EAI , lots of promises , very little cash ... and it is not even really started that the Cash-Problems are occurring like in "Good old Wedge's times" !

i would think most of those furnishers are reaching these conclusions :

1°) Cash ONLY on delivery ! (if Cash can be shown in advance of delivery = Better!)

2°) NO DEAL is always better than BAD deal ...! (unlike what i read here , i don't think anyone is queuing to be a furnisher for Fpj(associated image+cash problems+rates of deliveries +etc...) the ones who still are on board are either becoming more expensive (jet engines ?) or sub-standards (but with all the defects EAC had in past with top-notch furnishers , what is going to be the result ? probably nothing good before the New-stuff-lag can be fixed ...meaning a whole new set of problems + some added delays of the road to "break-even" + how many old customers are going to put with that , anymore ?)

if it would be like Dave suggested : RP tried to have others (Depositors , furnishers , some having more money and "cojones" than brain ..., etc) to Bid in the Auction ...

to keep the pot boiling , the need for DIP was present ...

the attractiveness of the project was so huge that no one came to offer a $ more ...

So all hopes of passing the "baby" gone with the No-other-Bid , how to get back all the money that was previously meant to be shared between former-depositors , former-furnishers , former- ...

to do it in a legal way = do what is happening !

(off-course , only speculations !)

the forecast from BIT + ODCE says that Unemployment is going to rise all through 2010 , times will starts to be better after the 1rst Quarter 2011

Regarding the sale not closing due to lack of cash, and the DIP financing: I imagine this is more a tussle between RP and Mr. Mann, with some minor details to be worked out I suppose. (I might be wrong, but I thought it was Mr. Mann that put up the DIP financing?).

As I understand it Mann was taking part in the DIP financing, but he wasn't taking part in putting up the scratch to buy Eclipse, so a tussle between them shouldn't result in the deal not closing. Roel claimed to have the cash to buy Eclipse plus having around $170 million in credit to fund Eclipse 2.0. If Roel does cough up the dough, it better not come from his credit line or else that would mean he's taking 15% ($30 million) from his stated price with Eclipse 2.0 being that much weaker with Roel not having the funds he said he had. This non-payment by Roel could be hugely symbolic with Eclipse 2.0 being the same as Eclipse 1.0 - still not paying bills on time.

However, I think the word 'profit' would need considerable work (just like the FPJ) for it to describe EAC or EAI as having made one.

If there was even a chance of a 'profit' at $2,195,000, its reasonable to speculate that the original shareholders, depositors, suppliers, staff and owners would not have suffered such pain and, well, loss.

Sadly, they have. The shareholders are all but wiped out, depositors have lost something north of $300 million, suppliers are out $200 million (plus) and owners are holding keys to a twin engined jet which requires expensive works to meet FIKI conditions. If that work can even be carried out....

Can they make it pay at $2.5 million? $2.8 million?

Who knows. It's possible there are huge numbers of suckers still out there, but I think EAC had cleared the decks of about 1,000 of the lower hanging fruit, and none of them contracted to pay $2.5 million.

Even before the company did Chapter 11. Or voided all warranties. Or 'detained' an aircraft that was fully paid for.

I wonder how many of the previous EAC buyers would have agreed to buy an Eclipse for $985,000 - $1.25 million way back when if the economy were in the shape then that it is now.

The order book might have been a couple of hundred. Maybe...but probably not.

When the price jumped to $2.15m, the universe of potential buyers dropped off greatly. Now that it's going to be around $2.5m, it will probably only be a handful. Not enough to keep the company in business.

But we'll see.

By the way, is anyone else getting bored with the Eclipse saga? I am. It used to be interesting, but I have trouble these days even thinking of Eclipse in aviation terms. It doesn't even seem like a real aircraft anymore - just some other pilots' nightmare with no ending. A plane no sane person wants to get stuck with. We might as well be talking about Sabre jets or Queen Airs - stuff no one wants anymore.

9Z said, ...is anyone else getting bored with the Eclipse saga? I am. It used to be interesting, but I have trouble these days even thinking of Eclipse in aviation terms. It doesn't even seem like a real aircraft anymore - just some other pilots' nightmare with no ending. A plane no sane person wants to get stuck with.

LOL, like a modern day Spruce Goose?

Speaking just for myself, I find the soap opera interesting only because I'm dying to see the other shoe drop. Does Roel pull it off? Do these guys-n-gals know something that WE don't? Do they call me to come back to work? Do I tell them to go F**K themselves IF they call me? Yeah, wishful thinking on my part. But EAC still gets into my subconscious when I have dreams(!) of being back at the plant...

Life has gone on for me, but many of my friends/former co-workers are still there. I don't want them to get hurt ...but I do want to know what happens to them and the Albuquerque economy as a whole. The drama may not be as interesting without The Wedge pushing everyone's buttons, but the epilogue has not yet been written. Who could put this story down before the final chapter is complete? What happens to the fleet? What happens to the suppliers? What do the customers do post-BK? Pretty big cliffhanger in my opinion.

I have found things even MORE interesting over the past few months, and expect it to get even better over the next six or so!

After all, bankruptcy was pretty much a foregone conclusion- two years ago- the drama being how long it would take, and how much of a buffoon Wedge would make of himself.

(BTW, I'm modestly disappointed RP kicked him out as early as he did- I would have found Wedge's escapades most amusing in the present circumstances).

Now we are presented with some true unknowns (with the drama made even more unpredictable by the erratic market conditions, for both airplanes, and credit):

1) Will EAC manage to get enough funding to continue?2) Will the existing owners get their retrofits?3) Will EAI move to Russia?4) Anyone up for Avio 2.0?5) What will become of the CON-jet?6) Anyone seen Wedge? (Keep your children, and wallets, close!!)7) How long will PC take?8) Is Al Mann REALLY BATMAN ??

The airplane hasn't changed all that much over the past 18 months, (flies nice, good engines, so-so avionics), so if folks are here just to watch the airplane evolve, I'll concede it's been a bit of a stale ride of late.

But let's face it, twin engine biz jets are all about the same from a technological point of view. But there sure hasn't been a company with as many twists and turns as Eclipse for quite a while!

(Swearingen of late, and earlier Piper, and Mooney too, might arguably come close- but their narratives are slow-motion and amateurish compared to the quantum mismanagement at Eclipse over the past decade!)

I'm here to watch the play, and the players, not the props (ah, make that propless props):

Yep. Pretty boring. Basically nothing happening and nothing to talk about until they announce start upgrading planes or making planes.

The longer Roel doesn't pay, the more interesting it is...and once he does pay being sure that it isn't coming from his Russian credit line. Does anyone know if there is a deadline for payment that comes with penalties or if Roel can contractually be said to have bought Eclipse while never actually paying for it? If Roel isn't as financially fit as he portrayed himself to the court, the court might as well just hand over Eclipse to the customers/depositors, suppliers or whoever...right now the 60%ers have more into Eclipse than Roel's cash offer, so they'd have a better claim to Eclipse than Roel. Voiding the deal due to non-payment could have the advantage of Eclipse not having to go through all the time and expense of getting a new PC.

1°) Creditors/customers/furnishers/depositors having more in the pot than RP ...:

yes , but it is this way for a long time ! Even the Wedge had more into the pot , so it seems to me ...

2°)Russian Credit line ...:

i am quite surprised that no one pointed out this simple conclusion : actually it SEEMS that RP is some kind of a middle-man ...

what is the best way to loose your money , if you are an investor into any kind of project ? = to have too many "middle-man" that can put their cupids hands on your stack ...!

IF (still very doubtful) RP has some cash from the Russians (once again , one pays Royalties for a project with "keys on the door" not for a project in a state of traumatic-postcoma overpassed about 2 years ago ...) WHY if the Russian was interested they DIDN'T offer the bid + 1US$ ???

to have the pleasure of entertaining a (very) expensive CEO nobody knows if he can make a difference between tail and windshield ...

3°) WHY didn't Madoff bought many FPJ ? ...:

fantastic ! i thought most peoples putting any money into anything WERE not supposed to loose anything ?

ONCE again , the theory " Avoid like a plague whatever you don't understand at least 101% "

again and unlike what the "Guys in W.S." tried and managed to sell you , if something is feared to be too complicated for your understanding , don't believe anyone UNLESS you like to be called STUPID !

IF it is TOO complicated = it is NOT for you ... or expect to be ripped-off !

Money and Greed alone or together are very armful , most of times it is better to avoid any greedy person , even if some present themselves as ambitious , remember this : to fulfill their insatiable greed they will betray you as soon as they see it fit !

The longer Roel doesn't pay, the more interesting it is...and once he does pay being sure that it isn't coming from his Russian credit line.

I think (as do a few of my sources) that you are heading in the right direction with this one.

Al Mann's future involvement is also not clear to me. He was 50/50 with Roel on the DIP finance. He is due to retain a percentage of the EAI as a result. Will he fund the project (I can't really call it a company anymore) going forward?

Word from the factory is that the staff are getting restless. They still have had no word on a) WHY the sale didn't close on Friday, b) WHEN it's due to close and c) WHAT their revised terms and conditions will be.

Not a word to depositors either. This IS strange, as Roel needs to keep these guys sweet. They are, after all, his only realistic source of cash in the short term, if he can make them some type of offer.

Suppliers are also pretty much in the dark. Again it's hard for me to work out what Roel is up to. He needs to keep these guys on side to finish the 27 birds on the production line, never mind getting some sort of momentum going at the factory.

Rest assured my fellow 'critics'. I'm likely to hear what Roel is up to before he makes any public announcements, and I'll do my best to share the details in a timely manner.

when i read all this stuff , i wonder if we are writing on a multi-hundreds millions $ project ...

some peoples seems to be so jaded with their own cash ... (or what they present as being theirs )

if they want to finance the Fpj , they should write a book , title : "what you should avoid at all cost!"

sure they will be very good ! ;-) since you are working in publishing world , may be you should offer them advices and help ... off-course , only if you have never experienced before loosing money from work ... ! ;-)

anyone to believe any furnisher is patiently waiting on their good will ?

remember this simple rule : "no stock , no loss " translated by some as " the stock in the premises are all money not earning a cent !"

Word from the factory is that the staff are getting restless. They still have had no word on a) WHY the sale didn't close on Friday, b) WHEN it's due to close and c) WHAT their revised terms and conditions will be.

Actually C is in the sale documents. Per the sale documents all Eclipse employees are fired and they lose all claims against Eclipse and Eclipse 2.0 for pre-sale matters. Then after the mass firing, if Roel likes you, he might re-hire you for Eclipse 2.0 but you'd get no seniority, your old employment contract is void, etc. So the short answer is that they get a pink slip as a reward for their hard work to Eclipse. It is all pretty standard for Eclipse (and now Eclipse 2.0) to abuse those who are the most loyal and have put the most time/money into Eclipse and with Roel, it is just a name change at Eclipse while everything else stays the same.

Not a word to depositors either. This IS strange, as Roel needs to keep these guys sweet. They are, after all, his only realistic source of cash in the short term, if he can make them some type of offer.

Suppliers are also pretty much in the dark. Again it's hard for me to work out what Roel is up to. He needs to keep these guys on side to finish the 27 birds on the production line, never mind getting some sort of momentum going at the factory.

Actually I don't see them as short term funding possibilities because of the PC. I think Roel will find he was too smart by half in doing an asset sale rather than a business sale or full Chapter 11 because he has to get a new PC despite Eclipse already having the PC and the FAA is going to be a lot more strict this time around than they were previously. Who is going to spend all that money on an aircraft that doesn't even have a PC behind it? Roel needs a PC or else there's very little justification for someone buying an Eclipse 2.0 instead of Mustang...even with a PC, the advantages to buying an Eclipse become less and less as Eclipse goes up in price. The 60%ers might be better off with a tax write-off instead of getting an aircraft from Roel that wasn't even manufactured under a PC.

The sale judgment signed by Judge Walrath on 23 January 2009 stated that the aircraft was to be released to its owners within five business days of the closing of the sale of the assets to EclipseJet.

So according to the judgment the company is well within its rights to hang onto #260 until five days after the sale closes, which hasn't happened yet...but you would really think that there would be some very good customer relations reasons for releasing it ASAP, with an apology.

What will other customers conclude from watching this little drama on how the company treats people who have paid for their aircraft and even have a court order releasing it?

I fail to see what benefit there is, for Roel, in holding onto s/n 260. It would be very simple for him to seek a variance of the BK Court order as a simple, PR goodwill gesture.

Unless, that is, he is not acting entirely in good faith. Maybe, just maybe, he's not sure if the money will come through.

That's been one of the key difference between Wedge and Roel. Wedge always had faith, and believed he would be able to lay his hands on the money.

Hawker Beechcraft may be in further difficulty. It appears they want to dispose of a further '2,700' staff. I mention this only as they were one of the few companies who even looked at EAC during Chapter 11.

Dave,

Actually I don't see them (the depositors, ed) as short term funding possibilities because of the PC.

I disagree. The PLG (Production Line Group) struck their deal with Roel to pay EAI $1.375 million on delivery, in addition to everything already 'lost'. I believe that Roel will seek more money from these 60% people instantly, to do two things:-

1. Get more cash, to prove he can.

2. Convince himself (and his backers) that there is life in this scam (sorry, 'business') still.

After all, if the victims (sorry, again, 'depositors') will put more money up, straight away, it proves he was right....

I predict it will work out something like this.

1. The depositors will be offered a 'coupon' to the value of say '50%' of what they've already paid. It's not important if its 40% or 60%, as long as there is perceived value.

2. To 'secure' this coupon, they will be asked to pay EAI something like $300,000 within 30 (maybe 60) days.

3. Once the aircraft starts down the production line, with a specific serial number stamped on the nosecone, they will be asked to remit the balance due, possibly with a nominal retention.

Roel will make these conditions very black and white. Those that drop out don't concern him. What he needs are a 150 or so 'die hards' who can't believe they are suckers, and are therefore prepared to be suckered again.

That would give Roel another $150 (ish) million 'security' to move this game along.

And you know what the sad thing is? He has almost 800 potential victims out there, already with money in this. I think he can make it work, and that scares me.

Shane: I agree with your thoughts on #260. It strikes me that because the court order instructs the new company to release the aircraft after the sale that the new company would not actually be able to release it until the sale is completed, because they don't have possession of it. Of course the old company could release it, even though they were not instructed to do so - after all they were the entity that seized it.

It seems if someone is standing on a point of law here that the underlying principle is being missed.

looking at your analyze of this "business plan" i would surely ask you how to kill a snake ...

Brilliant !

once again :" there is no lie peoples are not ready to believe if it fits them or their ego "

you're right this is scary ...

this is wonderland ... someone with very little money , absolutely no knowledge of this type of work and a a mouth full of words ... manage to pick-up the potentiality of several hundreds millions $ ...!

Dave said ... It is all pretty standard for Eclipse (and now Eclipse 2.0) to abuse those who are the most loyal and have put the most time/money into Eclipse and with Roel,

Continuing to pay the salaries of people (who obviously can't get employment elsewhere) to sit around doing nothing is now defined in the blog as "abuse"?

Wow!!! How come Lenin didn't think of it?

Who is going to spend all that money on an aircraft that doesn't even have a PC behind it? Roel needs a PC or else there's very little justification for someone buying an Eclipse 2.0 instead of Mustang

You guys are making a big deal about the only thing that can't transfer over - the PC. That is grasping at straws.

The PC is a non-issue. As a matter of fact, for very low production rates, like Mooney and Eclipse, it is sometimes better (as in more efficient, less costly) to have the FAA sign off each plane rather then investing in the PC processes, procedures and overhead.

Continuing to pay the salaries of people (who obviously can't get employment elsewhere) to sit around doing nothing is now defined in the blog as "abuse"?

Wow!!! How come Lenin didn't think of it?

Baron, if you're going to disagree with me on something, at least have it be on something that I actually said. I am talking about what is in the sale document which states that all Eclipse 1.0 employees are fired and lose all employment claims and benefits upon the sale to Eclipse 2.0.

The PC is a non-issue. As a matter of fact, for very low production rates, like Mooney and Eclipse, it is sometimes better (as in more efficient, less costly) to have the FAA sign off each plane rather then investing in the PC processes, procedures and overhead.

Actually that was another one of the terms of sale agreement with Eclipse 1.0 being responsible for providing the labor expertise (and expense - also coming out of the $28 million) to get Eclipse 2.0 to have a PC. The sale agreement states that it is important so that Eclipse 2.0 is substaintially similar to Eclipse 1.0 in its offerings.

If Eclipse still cost around $1M, I'd agree with you that it would be a non-issue, but as the price rises, why would anyone buy an aircraft that wasn't made under a PC (and therefore lacked the processes and proceedures) when for about the same amount of money, they can buy an aircraft from an aircraft made under a PC and whose company didn't just emerge from BK? The more Eclipse raises the price, the more such things as this matter.

Also to reply to Shane regarding Roel demanding immediate payment from the 60%ers and others despite the court's agreement, I think would be very dangerous. I believe Roel would have to get approval from the court and the very act of going to court about this could blow up in his face big time. Roel stated in court he had hundreds of millions of dollars to operate Eclipse 2.0 and as such he could ruin his credibility with the courts and cause all sorts of trouble for himself. Roel was given the benefit of the doubt that his offer was legit at $200M, but if it turns out his offer was made in bad faith, there might be others who would be interested in purchasing Eclipse for substantially less while demonstrating that their offer is in good faith and can prove they can fully fund their offer upon acceptance and are more financially viable. Roel stated in the sale documents that he not only was good for the purchase price, but he had lots of money to fund Eclipse 2.0's ongoing operations. If Roel has no money to keep Eclipse 2.0 running, the courts have no reason to let the 363 sale go through - unless they want to see Eclipse 2.0 in there right after closing the books on Eclipse 1.0.

Whether in the realm of national politics, idle employees at Eclipse, or raising children, paying someone to do nothing is a form of abuse.

A “country kid” learns early on, that helping a chick out of a shell, or helping a butterfly out of a cocoon, is a sure way to kill the new-born.

Modern thinking lacks discipline and accountability . . . and a bunch of idle employees, getting paid to “do nothing” is neither good for Eclipse (regardless of the future of the company), nor for the employees and their future.

‘Give a kid an allowance, without requiring hard work in exchange will produce someone headed for disaster in adulthood. ‘Give an “employee” (an oxymoron in this example), a “free ticket”, will harm him (or her) in ways that will take years to correct.

You fill in the blanks . . . they are all too obvious for further comment.

The true value of Eclipse is less than zero . . . even lower than the number of completed aircraft. But, as they say, "beauty is in the eyes of the beholder."

That I don't know...it all depends on the terms of the deal. Roel afterall wasn't buying Eclipse, but instead certain assets of Eclipse and specifically excluding certain liabiilties. Also anyone wanting to bid against him would have needed to show they had around 1/4 of a billion dollars (the sale price plus the DIP and other costs). I'm not so sure that nobody in the world would be interested in Eclipse if the "stalking horse" was taken out and people could place bids on any or all of Eclipse with no pre-set minimum bid nor having to have Roel - the competing buyer - be the one vetting them, giving them internal docs and authoring them to bid. I would expect there to be a few bidders if the initial bid was just to cover the DIP (say $30 million) plus to demonstrate $30 million in funds to operate. Or say split the DIP in half and have one bid for the retrofit and part rights for pre-Eclipse 2.0 aircraft and another bid for the manufacturing rights. I would imagine that if we are talking about the bids for these things being in the tens of millions of dollars there would be interest (with some people doing it purely as a long-shot gamble) that wouldn't show up when the starting bid is in the hundreds of millions of dollars. I don't think Eclipse is worth $0 or less than $0...or at least I think there would be other bidders willing and able to pay in the tens of millions just to take a shot (not that I think there's much of a long-term opportunity in manufacturing the Eclipse, but I think there would be multiple others wanting to try for a low enough price and I could be wrong and they could profit handsomely, which would be great).

From my distant viewpoint . . . the technology is worth . . . zero. Time has passed this one by. The bird was designed for a slow and easy landing . . . straight wings, and limited top speed/altitude . . . and a “gaming PC (personal computer, that is)” mentality.

Equipment at the “mother plant” . . . it’s most difficult to buy and use specialized used equipment . . . hardware and software cannot easily be “plugged into” any other application . . . usually a new generation is produced every couple of years, with lower prices and far more capabilities.

A customer base . . . What customer base?

A “rented facility”? . . . with angry landlords? (aka: all of the taxpayers of ABQ and New Mexico)

‘Like the rich kid with the shovel . . . “There must be a pony in there, somewhere!”

But the question remains, “Where?” . . . and under that pile of poop, is it still alive?

"Still no sign of Roel closing the deal. Rumors reach me of an 'eastern journey' in a desperate effort to liberate cash."

This reminds me of the last scene in the Dr. Strangelove movie where Andy Devine rides the H-bomb down to destruction. Roel doesn't have the personality Andy did, but the Vernster would fit right in as Dr. S. if they ever wanted to do a remake.

The Eclipse 1.0 customers for one. Again, I'm not saying these things would pan out, but I think there would be those who would be willing and able to put up tens (not hundreds) of millions to give it a go - either for retrofits/parts for the Eclipse 1.0 customers or as a manufacturer being Eclipse 2.0. Just because I think there would be bidders, it doesn't mean that I think that will result in successful long-term businesses. If the price is low enough, there are people out there who will gamble on anything and for that reason alone I think there is the possibility of multiple bids for all or part of Eclipse if the stalking horse bidder is removed.

EAI worth less than nothing?Well, I was about to post a rebuttal to that, given their substantial facilities.I propose the conventional portion of that argument still stands, although not universally agreed upon.

But now- for something-DISRUPTIVE!!------------------------------

(While I confess to gleeful use of that term, the following topic is NOT offered with any glee):

Bad things happen to good people.

And sometimes those good people are flying an airplane when it happens.

There has not been a significant Eclipse accident.

Appropriate tribute is most certainly due.

But, bad things do happen.

A serious accident will happen.

Most likely, through no fault of the airplane.

My question is, frivolous or not, what is the exposure of the current TC holder at that time?

a) No, the airplane was designed and manufactured by Old-co, not New-co ??

b) Yes, New-Co, with the inheritance of the TC, comes the responsibility for on-going safety evaluation, including discovery (and correction) of pre-existing (and heretofore, or not, previously unknown) defects??

So, will who ever holds the TC be lie-able (oh, excuse me for referring to Wedge), liable?

If New-co is operating on a shoe-string, I could see one large suit being a very significant event, potentially reducing the corporation to zero value (although I'm not sure it could ever become negative).

I don't want it to happen. And I say emphatically, IMHO, kludgy avionics and all, the EA-500 (operated per POH) is approximately as safe as anything flying. But approximately everything flying has had a serious accident.

may be not less than Zero (i am being kind and in a good-mood today...)

Zero , then ?

yes , i thought that the best thing that could happen to "this" was that all the victims would (or could , too many dreamers or too many "die hard till end" ?) join theirs efforts in order to kick all previous management and develop a kind of "Flying brotherhood of eclipse" (a kind of cooperative where all decisions would be made by actual owners and depositors ...)

it wouldn't have been the worst idea , being a kind of "firm" run by the ones using the product ...

and a big change in mentality : instead of crazy "genius" trying to screw as much as they could both the investors and clients , the investors would have been the clients , themselves ...

each one bringing in half million $ (less than they will pay in other "solution" if anyone can consider it as such) with all the depositors joining together the total $ would have been superior to 200M$ (meaning Goodbye mr RP and your lousy 28M$ of real cash )

the credibility both in front of Judge and furnishers would have been spotless , as the whole idea is based on "mutuality of interests and means" ...(which is totally the opposite of RP , day1 hasn't started yet , the money-men are already gone ... which is a quasi-certitude that EAI will be a carbon-copy of EAC = spending most of times and energy to find new financial support , day after days , never really sure of what will be at end of month ...quarter ...semester ... year ...!)

loosing a guy with 500.000$ (for any reason) when there is 200 others like him : it is only an event ...

loosing the only one who had hundreds (or tens) to put in the fire because he started to use his brain : it is a disaster ...!

when this whole story turned to be a fiasco (long time ago ...) i believed that the "Die-hard tone of speech" was more or less driving down this path , before anything else it is them who financed the most of the plot , so it was making sens that they would care the baby themselves , instead of being fed with lies and crap over crap ...

that idea of mine vanished when i read one of those , publicly asking for help to pay for his lawyer to sue what he was taking to the firmament weeks before ...(poor little rich boy loosing a million ...!)

NOW , we are back to Wedge's times , going franticly anywhere and everywhere to look for "funds" ...

doing and saying whatever it takes to last an other day , week , month ...

what a change !

the "Eastern Journey" :

situation has quite changed there ...the "Champagne for all" time is over ...i have met a wonderful young woman who i have met some times ago ( the type to damn happily a priest for eternity in exchange of a smile ... if you see what i mean ...) we had a chat ...(quite amazing as this type would have walked on my face without seeing me , few weeks ago , i am not flashy spender enough ...) she complained that a few months ago , she could come with "empty-pockets" party all night long for free ,best French Champagne was flowing like a river and she had embarrassment to choose in which super-car she would be driven home ...

now she has to feel very happy if she managed to be offered one orange-juice in the night ...!

time is really changing there ...

which is exactly as what Mr Gadfly's wisdom stated :

give too much money , too fast to a kid without explaining what you (or the ones before) had to go through to get it ...

you will end-up with adults full of problems , debts and inability to be just with enough humility to remember that EVERYBODY seat on the same part of body ...!

so , times are changing ... i just hope most will take the lesson : remember where you came from and thus remain humble ...

No matter the intentions talk of death and disaster should be avoided.just my opinion. I'm certainly no angel since if I had the chance I'd fold someones teeth back...but whatever this is my last visit to this dark little corner of cyberspace. Everyone enjoy! Quite sure I won't be missed. If someone has the misfortune BEG predicts I'm sure he will be first up to say he called it! Later kids.

So you think when you board a commercial aircraft or cruise ship that they shouldn't talk about what to do in case of a disaster? I find it odd that you'd flip out over someone asking a business question about the effects of litigation caused due to pilot error. As BEG correctly points out plane crashes do happen sooner or later to most anything that flies and calling it "dark" to discuss this from the standpoint of how litigation would affect business just seems strange to treat as taboo.

Well, I'm fairly certain that if I hadn't talked about the housing bubble, during dinner conversation about 4 years ago, it never would have popped and our economy wouldn't be in the sad shape it is today.

Flygirl is back!! Awesome!! LOL, what are you doing on Feb 14th??? I need to take you out for drinks!!

Well, I hear that some have been working 6-7 days/week doing nothing but buying off parts for PC, so they'd have a good stock of inventory to work with. But that would just be the receiving / inspection grunts; they ARE still getting new parts from what I have just learned today. Not sure what all 900 some-odd people are up to.

Once the BK is done, Roel apparently has some "training" scheduled when no one will be allowed to touch anything. Mebbe this is when he rolls out his own Employee Manual and teaches the grunts something about product liability...

Second, the 'official' figure is just about 940, as per Bankruptcy schedules lodged with the Delaware Court.

Third, no one REALLY knows how many are left in ABQ and the service centers. There has been some 'attrition' since the Chapter 11 process began, and quite a bit of 'Linkedin' activity in the past 10 days.

Fourth, a good number of those who remain are working up the Production Certificate for EAI (the new company) which EAC (the old company) are responsible for doing.

Yes, I know is seems confusing, but that's what happens when you get into a Chapter 11 courtroom.

Here's another problem seeing how the ETIRC deal apparently hasn't happened yet:The Albany County Airport Authority board will be asked to approve the transfer of the lease to the new owner of Eclipse Aviation when the board meets tonight at the airport.Eclipse seeks OK to transfer Albany lease to new ownerThis seems to be putting the cart before the horse of transfering the lease before the ownership has actually changed. Seeing how this lease would go to EclipseJet and that they might not have the money, what then would become of the lease?

900 EMPLOYEES AT ECLIPSE? NO WAY more like 175 at the most 200 according to my old supervisor. Most of the old employees where found working the STRIKE at VOUGHT since October in Nashville. But now that the STRIKE is over most went back to Mexico and New Mexico. Most of the white employees went to work at Charleston, SC. or Everett, WA. working on the 787 nightmare.

Im still at Bell in Amarillo and loving it here, NO FREE SODA POP! but its a real aircraft Co. UNLIKE ECLIPSED.

My, my. Goat has an opportunity to wax poetic and be philosophical.Let's see, should I go with response a) or b) ??---------------------------------a)Lest anyone be drunk or have brain damage, or otherwise be stupid enough to misinterpret my comments, I will elaborate, not for the belligerent, ignorant, and asinine BassMaster's benefit, but for the the one or two out of a thousand readers that might be as uninformed and inexperienced as he is.

(I'd say delusional too, but I doubt if any other thousand could rival his condition- but if so, I hope at least THEY are taking their medicine).

Bass, YOU are the one who mentioned disaster and death. The ONLY one.

I was going to go on, but any sane person would not have misinterpreted my comments as anything except as a rational (sorry Bass, I know I lost you on that one) business issue- further discussion is unnecessary, and I'm sorry, but it's not worth my time for those few viewers in the psych ward.

I will say, risk, liability, and exposure are VERY salient aspects of aviation. I perceive Eclipse as being a safe airplane, but with their numerous supplier and avionics issues, feel the corporation has some vulnerability to legal action, justified or not, when there is an accident.

ALL airframers consider risk. At one time, a substantial percentage of Beech, Cessna, and Piper's test activity was related to crash investigation and legal defense preparation. (Sorry Bassy, you probably haven't heard of those companies- they make airplanes).

Cessna dropped all the piston planes for a decade because there was too much exposure and liability risk. (They dropped less profitable models, and instead made only more profitable models- Citation jets, with more systems redundancy- achieving both more profit to handle law suits; and reduced risk through more capable airplanes and fewer of them).

It was not until the product liability laws were changed to limit exposure to 25 years from date of manufacture, that Cessna got back into the piston game.

Of late, Eclipse doesn't have the volume, nor the margin, to handle much legal action.

The fact that nobody else bid on their substantial physical plant puzzled me, and made me wonder what other factors we have not discussed (re: product liability) might be in effect.

I'm sorry to bore the adults with a rehash of liability, but apparently there are young children reading the blog.

Oops,I think I am liable for a mis-statement (gurr!!!)The aircraft product liability limitation is 18 years. I remember much of the discussion at the time, but less so the final outcome- sorry.18 year statute of limitation

A few hours ago, I spoke with folks that have been in business in the Albuquerque area for over fifty years . . . covering three generations of a family business. Briefly, they did some work for Eclipse . . . and held their breath, to get paid. Albuquerque is a small town by almost any standard . . . news travels fast . . . and, in my opinion, Eclipse by any name, cannot recover from its bad reputation among the local businesses.

We spoke of “others”, who had “lied once” . . . there is no recovery from bad behavior in the business world, especially in this little town by the Rio Grande.

Maybe among big companies, who themselves conduct business by lying, they may believe the lies of other companies, with a “common” morality. But in a small community, such as ABQ, there are few secrets . . . and secret lies are open scandals.

Think on it . . . and do not quickly assume that Albuquerque is the best location to begin this sort of thing. ‘Better to begin in the big cities of the east . . . Chicago, etc., or on the “left coast”, in California. And then, again, in those places it has all been done before . . . and it would be most difficult to be “un-detected”. And now, even Albuquerque is “on” to this sort of dishonesty.

gadfly

(The days when we began our business, with a “handshake” . . . that was worth more than a written contract . . . most of that generation are filling space . . . six feet below the dew on the morning grass. Bless their memory!)

Can I reserve 1430 copies, I an starting an online aviation book store, and I think your book will be perfect.

Can I provide only $.01 in lieu of the normal $5/book reserve deposit? When everyone learns about your book "pre-selling" like hotcakes they'll bolster your order book, and create a real buzz. Demand will soar. You will rake in deposit money.

Zed,With "Book Deal", you have created one of the blogs all-time classics!!

I have been having trouble reading the characters (in the book, not at Eclipse), plus some of my "pages" are blank. So, I propose an upgrade to Arial-NG font.

And I propose we have the book translated into Russian. With red ink (ah, appropriate, eh, comrade?)

ATM,Psyched (oops, not Bass'd) by your store proposal, I got a government loan and am hiring one dozen bookseller trainees per week. I got a tax-free building site, and the state is providing computer services and other tools (!!! not THAT tool !!!)

20 year mechanic raised an interesting point about the white workers going to SC as well as the # of employees still at Ewhatever. Where did the non-white workers end up? Bell has a super reputation for sure. Did the non-whites end up in some hutch in a sweatshop or something? Don't quite get it. Nonetheless great to see someone has moved on past the debacle. It seems everyone else has gone to NC for Honda.

Zed, scam wow is classic. Have you seen that guy with the new vegetable tool? Interestingly I called the # just to have fun and was quite impressed if not flat startled that even though I made the call via cell, within seconds of connecting an automated voice verified my address...and it was correct! Fantastic marketing backed with a marvelous system for order fulfillment to correct addresses!

BEG...AHHG! I guess I put my foot in my mouth...maybe both feet. This isn't the first apology I've made and it probably won't be the last...but yes I'm sorry again. I took you out of context to say the least. I took a few blues and I'm feeling better ;) How did Cirrus come through their initial problems? Sure they were a going concern in the boom days of GA, but I can understand your concern of an on the fence, recession muddled company having a mishap. It's amazing the tragedies that the Cirrus was involved in didn't liquidate them. Climates are different now. You raise a valid point that other bloggers have noted and I can't say I'm blind to it. Again though I'm sure you wouldn't really miss me had I left but I do see that my short temper and "belligerence" brings something to the blog when times are slow for real content. Mr Price's RM downturn in investment is sure as heck interesting though...even though just a "snippet"!

it is probably just a little detail , but you forgot few things in your book-deal ...

The thousands (or hundreds of thousands ... unless it is millions ?) book specially designed for the European market ...

some , like the Russian translated version (to please Mr Billy : blank pages , like the original , but printed in Red ....) but starting from the end ...

the Chinese version starting from the middle of the book reference to the Old Name of the place " Empire of the Middle"

The Arabic version , starting from top to bottom ...

off-course , it is going to be such a success that future of printing industry in USA is insured for the next century (unless there is a misprint in the marketing documents and it reads 100 seconds instead 100 years !)

so...

since this proposal looks like wonder-business (Traders in W.S. are broke kids in comparison to the money going to be made out of such ...)

i am ready to undertake the whole distribution out of USA ...

as a commitment to do so , i take 1 share in your firm (find enclosed a check of ONE$ 02 cents)

as an acceptance of my proposal , do not forget to send me , in return , a check of 6 Zillions $ that has to arrive in my office NO later than today noon !

failing to do so (in case the check arrive late or not in the stipulated form ...) i will be entitled to seize all your assets for an additional 03 cents ...

1. Getting very close to the wire for payday tomorrow, Friday. Still (early Thursday, GMT) no funds from ETIRC, so EAC struggles on with the remains of the DIP money.

2. Roel continues to be 'confident' that the money will come. But he's not 'certain'....

3. Even EAC 'friends' in Santa Fe are getting the jitters. Lawmakers in the State House cut capital funding for an 'Eclipse Aviation maintenance centre' as part of their budget review.

4. Several 'informed sources' have convinced me the floor price of a new FPJ will have to be in the region of $2.5 million. With any options. or EASA, it will cost more.

So, the workers should get paid this week, which is good news. The lack of financial clarity from Roel is a real concern. He was adamant that money would not be a problem from the day he took over as CEO. A 'floor price' of $2.5 million will cause real difficulties going forward, as the depositors I've talked to admit the MOST attractive part of the FPJ was as a '$1.5 million twin jet'.

This could all get very interesting, very quickly. Stand by for updates, which I'll post as soon as I can.

Everyone is also forgetting the new, revolutionary, and unique binding of the book. It only cost millions to develop and years to get into production but is touted as a major success by the publisher. Even though it still appears to use a lot of glue and stitching just like every other book thats ever been printed.

and... the book is already in it's 3rd re-write... and it has never even been released yet.

There was a first edition copy - a single unit unveiled at a book launch - it was recently revealed that the prototype shown at the book launch celebration was really just "Eclipse book" cover art and inside were 500 pages from the Gideon Bible.

It was a big celebration - I hear no one could get too close, because the artwork was still wet.

The "beautiful, fragile, delicate" butterflies I was referring to are ERcoupes- rare creatures here, and even more rare in Europe, I imagine. (I had posted a picture from the web, as below, which BT took some exception to, I believe, perhaps not fully appreciating the magnificent purple and checkerboard paint scheme (hmmm, everyone's an art critic now 'days! :).

I wonder if Eclipse ever contemplated such a dashing paint scheme for a sales demonstrator? Along those lines, I wonder if Wedge's 500 has perhaps been personalised (perhaps named, "JailBird", or some such?)

I fly one with fabric wings, like all real (slow) airplanes have, and while not universally appreciated as beautiful, they are appropriately accepted as fragile.

But regarding longevity, they do a bit better than 3 days- first flight in 1940, with the bulk made in the late 1940's !

(I hadn't thought about it until now, but perhaps indeed there are none in Europe:ERcoupe History(sorry, it's not particularly Eclipse-related; perhaps consider this as brief intermission entertainment during the EAC-to-EAI transition :)

Although I suspect the EAI show might be brief as well...---------------------------------

While on the show biz theme, I will quote a movie line, for our friends in Albuquerque:

RUN, FOREST, RUN !!!

(Alas- I say with regret- I think this is prudent advice; which I have not made before now, hoping things would work out better than the events there this week seem to indicate).

Fred,I had wondered why Ken ordered two jets- perhaps he was trapped with the proverbial wife-ly question:

"Does this VLJ make my butt look fat?"

How does one answer that, except with, "Why no dear, we'll take it"

(BTW, I think Mrs. Ken has nothing to worry about, in this regard- so no offense of any sort intended- this was purely hypothetical. No Butterflies were harmed in the filming of this post. Be sure to consult a doctor before starting a VLJ regimen. This article discusses future products, which may or may not be available as expected).

Should the “Dutchman” not be able to come up with the funds, and the experiment come to a sudden end (“Chapter 7" . . . and that sort of thing), everyone could walk away . . . and get on with life . . . politicians could get on with their “excuses” for their behavior . . . potential customers could “cut their losses” ‘best they can . . . the “die hards” could get on with explaining how right they were (“if only . . .”!) . . . Richardson, and company, could go about their own legal defense, to stay away from gated communities . . . and generally, life could return to “normal” (whatever that might be). And the rest of us could . . . well . . . we could maybe find some other daily entertainment. And when the dust settles, General Aviation, in general, could go about sharing some of the things we have learned over the past few years . . . both good and bad, and maybe contribute some positive things . . . and not just a series of rhetorical pot-shots at each other.

But then, consider the source of these observations . . . somehow me thinks that we’re nearing the end, so it don’t much matter what I have to say. Come next week . . . next month, I figure very few of us will recognize the landscape.

good to know that there is some who can still make a pay-check out of this mess ...

a all-time-skeptic like me would almost ask the reason creating this pay-check ( as what is behind , what need , what work) but then who am i to judge ? ...

Billy :

i always thought Etrick was and is a empty shell ...( with a capital of 50.000€ and the Lux. law prescribing that 1/4 of that sum has to be at some point on the bank account of the said firm ... we are sure of only one thing = 12.500€ spend a few hours, days , weeks (choose yourself , it doesn't make any difference) on Etrick bank account ... still , we are quite far from 28M$ or any gigantic sums proclaimed to be invested here or there ...)

so at your question about the one(s) behind the cash ...

the "may-be-better" question would be : "do those ones know how much is 1 + 1?" (if can't be sold at profit or if margin keep on being negative , what next ?)

it is any body's right to be fooled ...it is any body's right to be wrong ...it is any body's right to see things with pink goggles on ...

at the end of the day , the result remain the same :"0 + 0 = 0" (that would be already a quite good and unprecedented situation as till now it has always been :"0 - N² = you don't want to know !"

EAI is really going to be a carbon-copy of EAC 1.0 (with Wedge) and 2.0 (without Wedge) ...

how could they keep "good-workers" ? if those employees never know a week in advance what's gonna be their fate at next pay-day ?