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Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

Report summary

Coal consumption is under pressure. In developing economies, coal demand continues to grow but more slowly than in the past. In China, environmental policy, domestic protectionism, weaker economic growth and structural change in the economy caused the arrival of "peak coal" last year in coastal regions. Meanwhile, western economies continue to transition away from coal. Seaborne providers are adapting. Low oil prices, mining productivity improvements and FOREX changes are helping miners adapt.

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

Coal quality as a problem and reshaping the future in an ultra-low emissions world

The trade-off between fears of nuclear plant development and increased coal consumption is hard to assess

National responses to rising import costs, stranded national investment and increased unemployment in the domestic mining industry is not known

China may take drastic steps to insulate its domestic industry from imported coal

India may support its politically powerful domestic industry directly with subsidies and indirectly through increased infrastructure spending and new coal washery development

Investment hurdles mount: funding new coal mines, plants and infrastructure could become more difficult as the "moral" case against coal gains steam

Traditional relationships between economic growth and power generation may be changing: the rate at which emerging economies decouple economic growth from electricity generation may be different than we forecast

Fluctuating exchange rates can alter competitiveness but are very difficult to forecast: a weakening US dollar versus producer currencies could accelerate supplier rationalization and alter trade flow patterns

Our clients

Wood Mackenzie's clients include every major player in the global energy, metals and mining industries. We are recognised as a leading authority by international and national energy, metals and mining companies, leading financial institutions, governments and government agencies. We work with a range of diverse teams within our clients, from strategy and policy makers, business developers and market analysts, through to corporate finance, risk teams and investors.

Having Wood Mac analysis is table-stakes. Others are nice to have.

Analyst Metal Mining Producer

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Portfolio Manager Integrated Oil Company

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Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power,renewables,chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.

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Commodity market report | Jun 2015

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

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