ODF vs MSXML adoption

On the eve of what may well be an ‘ends justify the means’ victory for MS at the ISO [Update March 31: I note the latest Slashdot headline regarding the matter, “OOXML Will Pass Amid Massive Irregularities” Update April 2: See here for an overview of the ‘irregularities‘; the sneaky trick MS used: “if you can pick the moderator, you win” Update April 6: See also this article.], I did a little experiment to compare the rate of ODF format documents vs MS’ XML document format ala this page (though don’t ask me why some of the numbers are so different; I might be doing something completely different) by typing queries like ‘filetype:doc site:microsoft.com’ into a Google search:

What I take from this is that although ODF usage (as posted online) is ~1.5-2X the new MS XML formats, it still is a drop in the bucket compared to the old MS Office formats. If MS gets OOXML (not quite the same as what Office 2007 outputs (what I’ve been calling MSXML [Update April 21: see this article]), but close enough that they can gloss over the discrepancies [Update April 2: “[Tom Robertson, general manager of Microsoft interoperability and standards] said that Microsoft will begin work on an Open XML implementation road map for implementation at an as yet unknown time. He noted that the ISO is now responsible for the file format and must finalize the standard specifications. He expected the organization’s work to be complete by the end of this year.” So minimum 2009 before there is even a finalized OOXML!]) made into an ISO standard, they’ll maintain most of their Office profits for the time being and maximize their suppression of ODF. However, even so, given that MS Office is NOT free of cost, the free alternatives do save as ODF and there will be translators available (even if imperfect), I cannot see ODF dying out. In fact, MS may only have bought itself some time; instead of MSXML facing irrelevance now, they may still face extinction at a later date. And there will certainly be anti-trust issues raised… What to watch for will be the curve of adoption of the two XML formats and the rate at which the old MS Office ones are abandoned. Much as MS faces IE7 adoption issues vs Firefox AND IE6, they will face the biggest hurdle from getting people to abandon old versions of Office. If you want to help ODF, simply save in that format, even if from inside MSOffice with Sun’s Plugin.

Update April 7: I just noticed an article with Mark Shuttleworth’s reaction to the ISO fiasco. I suspect that projects such as OpenOffice.org probably won’t bother implementing the ISO ‘standard’ OOXML, but rather do what they’ve always done: attempt to match the output of MS Office (so, instead of the old DOC, the new DOCX MSXML)