Abstract/Summary

Analysis of stratigraphic records and historic charts has allowed comparison of Holocene
and historical rates of accommodation space change in the Humber Basin. Apparent rate
differences are explained using a morphological model and an analytical approach to
separate out the effect of differing forcing signals. This understanding is then used to
construct a simple behavioural model of how estuary volumes change over time that is
consistent over millennial to annual time-scales. Given the desire to promote the
sustainable management of estuaries, the approach provides a means to identify the
natural variability that should be anticipated. Distinguishing such signals from
influences such as sea-level rise is also important for the proper attribution of impacts
due to climate change.