Why weather prediction is so, so hard.

Two sets of pendulums. One set is identical. The other has an imperceptible difference in starting conditions.

Quote:

Differential equations derived using Lagrangian mechanics in MATLAB's Symbolic Math Toolbox and solved numerically using ode45.
The lower segment of the blue pendulum on the right has an initial angle 0.001 radians (~0.057 degrees) greater than the same segment on the red pendulum.

For those not familiar with the weather connection (or chaos theory) - chaos theory describes systems where a very small change in the starting conditions result in very different outcomes unlike, say your car braking where the input and result is relatively linear. Weather forecasting confronts this and why you see Ensemble models and spaghetti plots for hurricanes for example. The various plots correspond to small changes in the initial conditions of the storm (sea surface temperature, wind shear, etc.)

You guys do realize, don't you, that if the Higgs Boson decides to have a phase transition, the entire universe collapses down to the size of a little ball or something. So you are worrying about the wrong things. Forget about the butterflies that cause hurricanes.

You guys do realize, don't you, that if the Higgs Boson decides to have a phase transition, the entire universe collapses down to the size of a little ball or something. So you are worrying about the wrong things. Forget about the butterflies that cause hurricanes.

If the world ends with a bang (vs whimper) I'd lay even odds on a Vogon construction crew making way for a hyperspace by-pass and some smartypants physicist monkeying around with one of them collider thingies... "Hey guys, what if we just take it up a notch?"