The atmosphere is primed for rapid development of these storms. What is lacking is strong winds aloft to organize the storms. Instead, the storms will remain as cells and small clusters as they develop and redevelop this afternoon while drifting northeast.

As I said this morning, I do expect some of these to become strong to severe, with a few storms with large hail and damaging winds. A widespread outbreak is unlikely, but some localized areas could see some intense weather this afternoon.

Paragraph update: 1:40pm. The Storm Prediction Center has elected to keep us in their ‘marginal’ severe threat, the lowest on their scale. I have placed our region in my ‘low’ threat’ classification, which is a step higher than the SPC’s marginal classification. They have issued a discussion to address the developing thunderstorms, but say a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely, with a 20% chance of a watch being issued.

Continue to monitor flxweather.com for the latest updates this afternoon.

Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.).
Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.