Barring any hindrances from looming political and financial realms, consumer spending should climb between 3.8% and 4.4% this year for the 10th consecutive annual growth in retail sales, the National Retail Federation forecasts.

While the retail trade group, in a statement Tuesday morning, predicted retail spending to top $3.8 trillion, the ongoing trade war with China, the aftereffects of a government shutdown, and threat of another in the coming weeks, could dampen its forecast.