Luntz’s London Lessons for Hillary Clinton

Republican spinmeister Frank Luntz has an interesting op-ed on last week’s surprising UK election in today’s Washington Post. The surprise was not that the Conservatives, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, won but rather their overwhelming margin of victory. Nearly every pre-election poll had the governing Tories in a dead heat with Labour and turnout – Luntz thought – was likely to be low.
Yet the Conservatives emerged with nearly 100 votes more than their loyal opposition and the percentage of voters turnout increased since the last general election in 2010.

Luntz offers three lessons from the erroneous polls. 1) How voters perceive the economy is critical. 2) Citizens ultimately do care about elections. 3) The level of trust that a candidate engenders is along with the economy paramount. Let’s examine each lesson and see if we can glean any insights into the the Presidential election coming up next year with specific reference to front-runner Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

It’s the economy stupid. In many ways the British economy has mirrored ours over the past five years. As of January 21, unemployment in the UK was at 5.8% its lowest level in 6 years. Likewise, real wages are rising albeit slowly. This record was enough for the British electorate to maintain confidence in the management ability of the Tories. For Democrat Hillary Clinton, this is undeniably a good sign as the United States has benefited from 62 straight months of job growth under the Democratic Obama administration and real wages are rising here. With the numbers showing our economy moving in the right direction, Presidential voters are likely to resist a change in party.

Voters care about elections. This lesson is perhaps the least apparent of Luntz’s takeaways. The percentage of voters rose only 1% despite a hotly contested election. Still turnout at over 66% was the highest number since 1997. So – and this is where Hillary Rodham Clinton should really sit up and pay attention – what policies did the prevailing Tories champion that apparently motivated so many Britons to vote for them?

With respect to economic policy, the victorious David Cameron campaigned as a populist sometimes to the left of Labour. For example, Cameron called for an extension of the “right to buy” home ownership policy which makes public sector working-class rental apartments available for long-time tenants to purchase at below-market rates. He also promised to support exempting minimum wages from income tax and to increase to 30 hours per week the amount of free childcare available to working-class families. In contrast, Labour opposed extending “right to buy” on the ground that it reduced available housing for lower-income Brits and supported “only” 25 hours of weekly free childcare.

Perhaps the most salient difference between the Tories and Labour was their stance on the UK’s membership in the European Union (EU). If reelected, Cameron promised to hold a referendum on whether to leave the EU. In contrast, Labour leader Ed Milliband campaigned against withdrawal.

The lessons here for Hillary Clinton seem abundantly clear. She should not fear moving left to head off progressive candidates like Bernie Sanders. Instead, she is likely to benefit from adopting a more populist tone in support of more widespread home ownership, tax relief for low-income Americans, and perhaps most importantly against the Trans Pacific Partnership – which can be fairly seen as a proto-European Union.

Trust is paramount. Luntz notes that pre-election, pollsters reported that just as many voters said that they would vote for Labour as the Conservatives. But he also points out that a significantly greater number of likely voters said they trusted Cameron more than Milliband. From this discrepancy, Luntz conjectures that when likely voters say they find one candidate significantly less honest that candidate may underperform. It is easy to see why a Republican operative would argue the criticality of a candidate’s credibility since this may be Hillary Clinton’s greatest weakness.

The latest CBS/New York Times poll offers positive and negative news for Clinton on this front. 80% of Democrats but only 48% of the electorate as a whole find her to be honest and trustworthy. While Luntz is a partisan Republican, his advice to Clinton is spot on. He recommends that in her upcoming testimony before Congress on Benghazi and her email practices while Secretary of State and after, she needs to present a wholly forthcoming and transparent demeanor.

Conclusion. Hillary Clinton and her supporters should view the surprisingly large Tory victory in the just-concluded British election with cautious optimism and go to school on it as well. Just as the British kept the party in power that has overseen a reasonably strong recovery, the American electorate is very likely to favor the Democratic Presidential nominee next year. To the extent a viable liberal challenger emerges, Clinton can probably move in a more populist direction without much risk of alienating other supporters. Finally a gentle suggestion: Clinton’s credibility received a needed boost when she replaced her former campaign manager oily Mark Penn with highly regarded progressive John Podesta. Now, she needs to lose hitman David Brock and fixer Lanny Davis. Every time one of them speaks for Clinton, their duplicity rubs off on her.

4 Responses to Luntz’s London Lessons for Hillary Clinton

Are you trying to completely lose your weekly interview with a representative from Media Matters? LOL.

I enjoy listening to the perspective from Media Matters, but I agree (and am disappointed) that occasionally they are not honest brokers and they just provide misleading spin. I hate to hear that, as it leads me to question everything else they say too.

BTW, my primary email address (less the +rm) is apparently blocked from posting in the forums. (I didn’t even try it for this post.) I previously created the new email address just so I could get my posts through.
I know your system is getting the posts from my primary email address because if I submit a post from Chrome & then again from Explorer, Explorer recognizes the attempted duplicate post. I think you might have tried once to allow my posts w/o moderation, but accidently permanently sent them to spam. Can you try to unblock my primary email addr? (Don’t post what was sent to spam though, as all have already been redone & successfully sent. Truthfully, the extra time allowed me to reread what I attempted to post and say things better. That’s the problem with posting w/o an edit button. Time is of the essence in responses to posts, but for best quality, one should always sleep on response before sending it.)

You can remove these last paragraphs, but I do wonder if any others are getting blocked w/o your knowledge. If so, they might not complain… but they might not ever come back either. Which reminds me, what ever happened to Dave/Dav and the other poster (name forgotten) from out of the U.S.? Jeff appeared just as Dave left, but his perspective is enough different that I don’t think they are one and the same. (Jeff isn’t obsessed with 911.)

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For once, Trump said something that bears a tiny semblance to truth. Specifically, re wildland mismanagement. Aggressive thinning needs to occur. Enviros need to back off, else over the next few decades we are

(Monday, Nov 12. 2018 05:35 AM)

on course to lose much of r woodlands & the wildlife we all want2 protect. Due to accumulated fuel loads resultant from over-aggressive fire suppression combined w/climate change, today’s fires dont just clear underbrush, they burn everything from mature tree crowns down to the soil, which is sterilized & then washes away to silt waterways. DiFi prev worked on a bi-partisan solution, see: http://tinyurl.com/Herger-DiFi-Quincy-Library-Grp

Recent criminal justice bail bond reforms are being distorted by powerful interests towards a new Jim Crow system of private, 4profit, mass e-carceration. In CA Oct 2019, it appears a presumption of e-detention will

(Sunday, Nov 11. 2018 12:37 PM)

replace what was hoped 2b more freq release on 1’s own recognizance. CPU algorithms based on factors highly correlated w/ race/class will determine who remains caged. Those found release elig will likely be forced2 lease from a private corp a $300/mo GPS unit shackled to their ankle & w/permitted movement zones that may make it imposs 2 work, attend school, care4 kids, or visit family. http://tinyurl.com/newest-jim-crow

Judge Brett Kavanaugh lied about the SeaWorld case during his Senate confirmation testimony last week in order to justify his disrespect for the Occupational Safety and Health Act.

(Monday, Sep 24. 2018 04:18 AM)

Kavanaugh can do one good thing for us; let’s hope his nomination hangs on & thus forces the SCOTUS appt after the elections. https://tinyurl.com/kavagaugh-lies
(Self-extracting link above shows full post.)

U.S. is denying passports to Americans along the border, throwing their citizenship into question.

(Friday, Aug 31. 2018 04:45 AM)

Worse, passport applicants with official U.S. birth certificates are being jailed in immigration detention centers & entered into deportation proceedings. Others are stuck in Mexico, their passports suddenly revoked after trying to reenter the United States. It’s getting close to time that we can legitimately start comparing the Trump admin to the Nazis. https://tinyurl.com/y9ur35p8

In China, Google has explored launching a new, special search engine that would meet the demands of the country’s strict Internet censors. Meanwhile, in the US, regulators/users increasingly demand Silicon Valley apply a heavier hand in moderating onlin

(Wednesday, Aug 29. 2018 03:19 AM)

2prevent harassment, stop hate speech & ensure civil political discourse. Now down the slippery slope goes Trump right into the totalitarian rabbit hole. T today accused Google of being “RIGGED” against him because the “search results for ‘Trump News’” show mostly “BAD” coverage about him from “Fake News Media.” And Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council director, said the T admin is “taking a look” at whether Google should be regulated. That’s not fake news, it’s scary news. http://tinyurl.com/ybctd59s

Correction: For fossil-fueled plants, CO2 release is reduced <40%, not <50%. System best described as a waste heat concentrator that then drives a turbine & generates electricity. The technique utilizes OFF-THE-SHELF proven tech. Initially, wast

(Sunday, Aug 12. 2018 01:28 PM)

would otherwise be released to the enviro is used 2drive a turbine that pressurizes air. This air is then stored underground @ ambient temps (either in an exhausted gas/oil field or in other common geologic formations). During /peak demand/ electric load periods, this air is piped 2where it is warmed by waste heat from the plant-s current operations. This increases the air-s energy density 2where it is sufficient 2operate a turbine & electric generator. Net result is that what was once considered waste heat pollution that costs money to dispose of can now generate electricity.

what has traditionally been unusable/polluting waste heat as pressurized air. This air later operates efficient modified turbines. 2X plant efficiency poss during peak periods. For fossil-fueled plants, CO2 reduced <50%. Pressurized air can also time-shift electric output from renewables. Dr Bill not alone: http://goo.gl/dCuvqh As for marquee claim, pressurized air can prevent nuke meltdowns by serving as alt coolant during critical 1st 72hrs w/o H2O. http://goo.gl/b1DCV9 While some radiation would be discharged in air, idea better than a meltdown.

T admin now wants to make it harder for legal immigrants to become US Citzns. Under a recent proposal, legal immigrants wouldnt be allowed to obtain citizenship or green cards if they’ve ever used the social programs many working-class ppl use at so

(Wednesday, Aug 8. 2018 04:30 AM)

like the ACA (Obamacare), Children’s Health Insurance, or foodstamps. Proposal won’t require congressional approval. As the Clinton admin did in 1999, T admin would redefine the term /public charge/, a feature of immigration law since 1800s. More than 20M immigrants would thus be prevented from ever voting. Immigration attys r planning2 push back in the courts, but Repubs r packing the courts too, so… https://goo.gl/6mSW1H

Earlier this wk, a Koch brothers-sponsored study shared widely w/corporate media tried2 scare ppl into thinking Medicare-for-all would be too expensive for our country. But what the study did was show that Medicare-for-all would actually save the American

(Saturday, Aug 4. 2018 11:34 PM)

people $2T over 10yrs. And it would do so while providing hlth care for 30M Americans who dont have it today & eliminating premiums/deductibles/co-pymts to private hlth ins companies. Sounds like a good deal to me. So I want to thank the Koch brothers. I do not think their study had its intended effect. s/Bernie Sanders. http://goo.gl/y9ChnC (In fairness, Bernie forgets2 mention the premiums/deductibles/co-pymts to Medicare/Medigap ins/PrescriptionDrugPlans. Medicare isn’t free 2 most end users but would cost less & improve results.

KSCO did a tribute show today from 10-noon w/guests & callers. According to Dr Eric Wattenburg, Bill’s son, one of Dr Bill’s last deathbed actions was2 successfully obtain a patent 4a method to quench out-of-control nuke reactors. I would

(Saturday, Aug 4. 2018 02:49 PM)

Dr Bill had. Dr Bill had a knack4 applying practical seat-of-the-pants knowledge he learned growing up on farms & in the woods with complex scientific principles. While I agree it appears there is no way to operate current gen nuke reactors safely, I am confident that over time scientists will find safe ways to contain/utilize this power. I also feel that mankind cannot ignore such a lrg source of electric energy generation – energy that may well be nec to tap in order to counter the wheels of climatic change already placed irreversibly into motion. http://184.105.148.154:8000/live

I’m listening to a tribute show KSCO is doing today from 10-noon with guests & callers. According to Dr Eric Wattenburg, Bill’s son, one of Dr Bill’s last deathbed actions was to successfully obtain a patent for a method to quench o

(Saturday, Aug 4. 2018 02:41 PM)

Dr Bill had. Dr Bill had a knack4 applying practical seat-of-the-pants knowledge he learned growing up on farms & in the woods w/complex scientific principles. While I agree it appears there is no way to operate current gen nuke reactors safely, I am confident that over time scientists will find safe ways to contain/utilize this power. I also feel that mankind cannot ignore such a lrg source of electric energy generation — energy that may well be nec to tap in order to counter the wheels of climatic change already placed irreversibly into motion. http://184.105.148.154:8000/live

Dr Bill Wattenburg, KGO radio talk host & scientist, passed away Thurs at age 82 due to complications of cancer. Dr Bill was a fixture on KGO from 1975-2011. I have missed Dr Bill’s input in recent yrs. I always held high respect for his scientific knowledge & his scientifically-based ideas. However, when it came to politics, his attitudes were sometimes abysmal & towards people that didn’t worship at his feet, he had a nasty mean streak. https://goo.gl/d98JUF

Did Trump Meet With His Counterpart — Or His Handler? A plausible theory of mind-boggling collusion. By Jonathan Chait @ nymag.com. That the GRU & Putin would have in the past behaved badly… well that is no more surprising

(Sunday, Jul 22. 2018 09:56 PM)

than the known past behavior of our own spooks/leaders. But that doesnt mean we cant now get along & work towards mutual betterment. I believe common ground w/RU is as poss as w/China & Europe. In that 1 very specific respect, I think Trump’s thinking is correct. Our biggest prob isnt the Russians, but the fact that our politicians are under the influence of corrupt money from foreign/corporate/mob/oligarchs. We should inoculate ourselves w/better cybersecurity, public campaign financing, & verifiable paper ballots — not by alienating RU. https://goo.gl/FGTHH7

Hope KKSF succedes so as2 better inform SF commuters. However, they have weak signal here & no local/state content except4 NBC news on hr. They also rerun same 4 shows 24/7. PBC says he contacted them but learned they have no

(Saturday, Jul 21. 2018 08:11 PM)

budget4 local talent. KGO however moving back 2roots taking more calls. This forces content from cheesy dribble 2 current & even local. And if Jack Swanson comes back as PD, PBC hopeful he & others might get gigs. R country has lost its way w/greedy corporate raiders that load formerly honorable/viable business w/unmanageable debt. The raiders then micromanage massive cuts trying2 maximize profit, but they r so incompetent that they cant even retain previous profits. Laws need to change.

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For once, Trump said something that bears a tiny semblance to truth. Specifically, re wildland mismanagement. Aggressive thinning needs to occur. Enviros need to back off, else over the next few decades we are

(Monday, Nov 12. 2018 05:35 AM)

on course to lose much of r woodlands & the wildlife we all want2 protect. Due to accumulated fuel loads resultant from over-aggressive fire suppression combined w/climate change, today’s fires dont just clear underbrush, they burn everything from mature tree crowns down to the soil, which is sterilized & then washes away to silt waterways. DiFi prev worked on a bi-partisan solution, see: http://tinyurl.com/Herger-DiFi-Quincy-Library-Grp

Recent criminal justice bail bond reforms are being distorted by powerful interests towards a new Jim Crow system of private, 4profit, mass e-carceration. In CA Oct 2019, it appears a presumption of e-detention will

(Sunday, Nov 11. 2018 12:37 PM)

replace what was hoped 2b more freq release on 1’s own recognizance. CPU algorithms based on factors highly correlated w/ race/class will determine who remains caged. Those found release elig will likely be forced2 lease from a private corp a $300/mo GPS unit shackled to their ankle & w/permitted movement zones that may make it imposs 2 work, attend school, care4 kids, or visit family. http://tinyurl.com/newest-jim-crow

Judge Brett Kavanaugh lied about the SeaWorld case during his Senate confirmation testimony last week in order to justify his disrespect for the Occupational Safety and Health Act.

(Monday, Sep 24. 2018 04:18 AM)

Kavanaugh can do one good thing for us; let’s hope his nomination hangs on & thus forces the SCOTUS appt after the elections. https://tinyurl.com/kavagaugh-lies
(Self-extracting link above shows full post.)

U.S. is denying passports to Americans along the border, throwing their citizenship into question.

(Friday, Aug 31. 2018 04:45 AM)

Worse, passport applicants with official U.S. birth certificates are being jailed in immigration detention centers & entered into deportation proceedings. Others are stuck in Mexico, their passports suddenly revoked after trying to reenter the United States. It’s getting close to time that we can legitimately start comparing the Trump admin to the Nazis. https://tinyurl.com/y9ur35p8