Event Title

Presenter Information

Faculty Sponsor

Jeff Summers

Location

Jereld R. Nicholson Library

Date

5-13-2011 3:00 PM

End Date

5-13-2011 4:30 PM

Subject Area

Economics (applied)

Description

This study analyzes the effects of the unemployment rate on Oregon voting behavior for National Congressional Representatives in the elections from 1992 to 2008. Existing research has focused on national elections, making this the first analysis on a purely state level. We find that controlling for incumbency and the coattail effects of a presidential election, an increase in a congressional district’s unemployment rate leads to a statistically significant decrease in the incumbent candidate’s share of the vote. The model was used to predict the 2010 election outcomes and can be used to predict future Oregon election outcomes.

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May 13th, 3:00 PMMay 13th, 4:30 PM

How Do Economic Conditions Affect Oregonians’ Voting Behavior?

Jereld R. Nicholson Library

This study analyzes the effects of the unemployment rate on Oregon voting behavior for National Congressional Representatives in the elections from 1992 to 2008. Existing research has focused on national elections, making this the first analysis on a purely state level. We find that controlling for incumbency and the coattail effects of a presidential election, an increase in a congressional district’s unemployment rate leads to a statistically significant decrease in the incumbent candidate’s share of the vote. The model was used to predict the 2010 election outcomes and can be used to predict future Oregon election outcomes.