Tuesday, September 30, 2014

We have a letter in the Oz today, here's the text as sent with a link...

In regard to the closure of the Australia Network ABC claimed it "met all of its contractual obligations and key performance indicators..." A quick Fact-check reveals this is false. The network falls under DFAT's Public Diplomacy program. The key performance indicator for the network outlined in DFAT's 2012-2013 annual report required the delivery of "an accurate and contemporary image of Australia, an understanding of the government's foreign and trade policies, and strengthened people-to-people links and trade and economic ties." ABC's role in reporting spying claims against Indonesia, its role in panicking the former government into closing the live cattle export trade and its coverage and promotion of false claims of abuse of illegal immigrants by Australian Navy personal are examples where the ABC did not deliver accurate information, circumvented Australia's economic interests and weakened our relationship with an important regional neighbour. The government's decision to strip the ABC of the Australia Network more than justified.

Friday, September 26, 2014

if the current crop of ABC reporters were around when Einstein published earlier this century they would have ignored it, claiming the science was settled. If they were around in the 1960s plate tectonics would not get a single mention as it went against the established concensus. With this in mind that the ABC have ignored another published article by Judy Curry comes at no surprise. The title and abstract are below.

Research Letter

Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the 20th century†

The bulk of our knowledge about causes of 20th century climate change comes from simulations using numerical models. In particular, these models seemingly reproduce the observed nonuniform global warming, with periods of faster warming in 1910–1940 and 1970–2000, and a pause in between. However, closer inspection reveals some differences between the observations and model simulations. Here we show that observed multidecadal variations of surface climate exhibited a coherent global-scale signal characterized by a pair of patterns, one of which evolved in sync with multidecadal swings of the global temperature, and the other in quadrature with them. In contrast, model simulations are dominated by the stationary — single pattern — forced signal somewhat reminiscent of the observed “in-sync” pattern most pronounced in the Pacific. While simulating well the amplitude of the largest-scale — Pacific and hemispheric — multidecadal variability in surface temperature, the model underestimates variability in the North Atlantic and atmospheric indices.

ABC, the spoiled brat of the Australian Public Service, react to criticism like a 4 year old told he can't have an ice cream. Earlier this week we posted on the pathetic attempt by the ABC to check facts on a comment Tony Abbot made concerning India's record on Nuclear issues. The ABC made a mountain out of a mole hill, taking diplomatic speak out of context, relied on questionable sources and showed a distinct lack of worldliness in its flawed assessment.

We posted a comment under the name ABCNEWSWATCH to the Fact check site.This was a condensed version of the post linked to above. Looking at it this afternoon, it seems the kindergarten kids at Fact Check didn't like it and it's been removed.

Screen shot below, the red ring marking the former location of the comment, note the comment above refers to it.

We found out one thing. What does the C stand for in ABC?

Censorship

Censorship is the suppression of speech, public communication or other information which may be considered objectionable, harmful, sensitive, politically incorrect or inconvenient as determined by governments, media outlets, authorities or other such entities.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

In a sign of the importance placed on relationships in this fight - the Prime Minister had formal meetings with King Abdullah of Jordan and Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan as well as brief talks with US president Barack Obama, British PM David Cameron, Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper and Holland's prime minister Marc Rutte.

There are reports Mr Holland is joining the US-led coalition against Islamic State with four F-16 fighter jets - subject to a vote by its parliament.

Now reads...The Netherlands would join the US-led coalition against Islamic State in Iraq with a number of F-16 fighter jets subject to a vote by its parliament.

ABC have ignored the work of Nic Lewis and Judy Curry, their new paper may change this! The results provide further evidence that human impacts on climate will be minor.

The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates

Nicholas Lewis,

Judith A. Curry

Abstract

Energy budget estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) are derived using the comprehensive 1750–2011 time series and the uncertainty ranges for forcing components provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Working Group I Report, along with its estimates of heat accumulation in the climate system. The resulting estimates are less dependent on global climate models and allow more realistically for forcing uncertainties than similar estimates based on forcings diagnosed from simulations by such models. Base and final periods are selected that have well matched volcanic activity and influence from internal variability. Using 1859–1882 for the base period and 1995–2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17–83 and 5–95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25–2.45 and 1.05–4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05–1.80 and 0.90–2.50 K. Results using alternative well-matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing. Uncertainty in aerosol forcing is the dominant contribution to the ECS and TCR uncertainty ranges.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

ABC painted a false picture of India's nuclear ambitions through a faulty FACT Check article, now they dump on India again for a milestone achievement of putting a space craft into Martian orbit on the first attempt.

In their story ABC can't help themselves with these closing comments...India has so far launched 40 satellites for foreign nations, since kick-starting its space program. But China launches bigger satellites.

Critics of the program say a country that struggles to feed its people adequately and where roughly half have no toilets should not be splurging on space travel.

With that sort of thinking we'd still be in the stone age.
Congrats to India for a successful mission, and here's to many more.

ABC's fact checkers provide a highly biased and skewed version of India's record on nuclear non-proliferation. Surprisingly they are unable to recognize diplomatic language in a speech from the PM. The article reflects a distinct naivety among ABC reporters about the world and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in particular. But when the organisation is so severely hampered by inbreeding of ideas through a collective groupthink and a reticence to seek alternate informed views what else would do you expect?

As an example of their "analysis" ABC provide the following quote:"The NTI Nuclear Materials Security Index assesses the security of nuclear materials around the world. Dr Rublee says India scores below Pakistan on the index, and is ranked above only North Korea and Iran."
The NTI Index is a non peer reviewed report; that it places India below Pakistan, a state verging on failure is a testament to its lack of accuracy, but ABC happily recycle this dirge without question.

They also naively give air to BS like this: Professor Thakur says India is not bound by the NPT requirement to disarm its nuclear arsenal. Countries in the NPT with nuclear weapons capabilities are, but have increased their nuclear stockpiles since signing the treaty.The irony of this sentence apparently beyond the simple minds at ABC FACT CHECK.

In their "analysis" they downplay India's positive contributions to NNP. A realistic analysis suggest Tony Abbot's comments are on the whole, correct.

This lack of balance and shallow analysis would be fine, except that the ABC is a government funded organisation paid for by all tax payers. It should reflect a diversity of opinion, and meet its obligations under its charter, that include reference to factual accuracy, but it does not.

We expect more than cliché and superficial analysis but it seems that this is all the organisation is capable of delivering.

It seems one of ABC's senior reporters, Chris Uhlmann, has spent some time counting the words of PM Tony Abbot. One would think there are more important and fulfilling activities for a senior journalist to undertake.
The result:What we can learn from Tony Abbott's words

A new analysis mines more than 200,000 words Mr Abbott uttered in Parliament and in speeches in the 12 months before and after the election. It is a fascinating portrait of the changing times.

Fascinating?... Hardly. No mention by Chris in this ludicrous piece of who spent the time counting the numbers, the methods used, the manner of analysis, and ABC have to gall to use the words "scientific " to describe it. ABC complain about funding cuts then undertake utterly pointless "research" such as this. No mention also of Uhlmann's connections to the ALP (his wife is the ALP member for Canberra).

Some of the comments sum it up nicely...

What a load of cobblers. Surely Chris, with your training, you can find something more important than this dribble.This is complete and utter rubbish. Of course the words he uses have changed because its a different year, and there is different things to talk about. Thats why QANTAS is one of those words on the list above. I bet he uses the words 'Islamic" and 'State' more now than he did before the election. That does not mean it is some kind of a strategy. It just means he is doing his job.This kind of superficial textual analysis does more harm than good. By looking simply for words, phrases, without a context we misrepresent meaning.It seems that the conclusion is seeking to explain away, rather than reveal.Where's the methodology?
Think the ABC is home to quality journalism? Think Again!

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

ABC remain in the grip of a fantasy about Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming and ignore reasoned rational debate on the issue. This piece by Atmospheric Scientist Richard Lindzen missing from our Auntie's news and opinion reports:

Climate alarm belongs to a class of issues characterized by a claim for which there is no evidence, that nonetheless appeals strongly to one or more interests or prejudices. Once the issue is adopted, evidence becomes irrelevant. Instead, the believer sees what he believes. Anything can serve as a supporting omen.

Significance

Northeast Pacific coastal warming since 1900 is often ascribed to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, whereas multidecadal temperature changes are widely interpreted in the framework of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which responds to regional atmospheric dynamics. This study uses several independent data sources to demonstrate that century-long warming around the northeast Pacific margins, like multidecadal variability, can be primarily attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation. It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region’s recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also apply to observed century-long trends.

Abstract

Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.

"Frankly, I'm disappointed that the prosecutor at the International Criminal Court hasn't thought to hold John Howard responsible for conspiracy to commit mass murder," he said.Mr Wilkie said Islamic State militants should be condemned for terrorist actions in Iraq, and added that the current unrest in the Middle East had its roots in the events of 11 years ago.

The "roots" are somewhat older. Honestly where do these loons come from?

We wait to see ABC give the same treatment to Kevin Rudd for his support for involvement in Iraq! As always we won't be holding our breath.

Only the ABC can ask the question, What is Sharia? and come up with the answer: "a path to water".

So a top ten list:
ABC tackle some other definitions of the 21st century:

1. Suicide bomber/be-heading: one of a number of systems of de-population intended to reduce the impact of climate change.2. Summer/Winter: climate change in action.3. Environment: GAIA - our overlord, all praise the earth goddess and her facilitators.4. Air conditioning: one of the top 5 social problems of our age .5. Current government: a blockage on the pathway to GAIA.6. The Greens: Facilitators of GAIA, praise be upon them.7. Wind Power: circulating the fragrant farts of GAIA (What bird carcasses?)8. Coal: Black vile, evil substance.9. Nuclear Power: see coal, just a different colour

Seems ABC's environmental reporters are asleep at the wheel, perhaps "well earned break" season has started early this year?

Fortunately The Australian's Graham Lloyd is on duty:

Wind farm turbines take toll on birds of preyEAGLES, falcons and other raptors make up to a third of the estimated 1500 birds killed each year at Australia’s biggest wind farm.The finding of an independent report for Macarthur Wind Farm operator AGL follows 12 monthly searches of 48 turbines at the 140-turbine operation in Victoria that found 576 bird carcasses.After adjusting for birds eaten by scavengers between searches and the total 140 turbines, Australian Ecological Research Services estimated each turbine killed about 10 birds a year.The analysis said this would include 500 raptors a year.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

ABC continue to ignore the few sane people involved in the climate science "discussion", in favour of climate ignoramuses like the cast of Monday's Q and A.

Prof. Judy Curry should be high on the list of experts called upon to help inform the public about climate change instead ABC continues to ignore her wise council. You can learn from Judy Curry via her blog.

ABC board member Fiona Stanley puts her foot in it. When the board has such disregard for the facts how is it capable of providing much needed leadership?

From The Australian:

Stanley wrong on ABC stand

THE ABC is vital to Australian democracy because it provides accurate and unbiased reporting in a country “poorly served by other parts of the media”, ­according to an opinion piece published by Fairfax yesterday.

But the article, by one of the broadcaster’s board members — epidemiologist and 2003 Australian of the Year Fiona Stanley — misrepresents The Australian.

In order to buttress her case against efficiencies and spending cuts at the corporation, Professor Stanley claimed it had a budget last year of $825.7 million. Yet, as has often been reported, the ABC receives annual taxpayer funding of more than $1 billion. According to the Department of Communications website the allocation last year was $1.05bn. The figures differ by 21 per cent, or $179.3m.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Unfortunately ABC's current batch of bed wetting activists reporters were born without the sense of perspective gene. This important gene helps normal people discern pure sensationalism from information that we need to pay attention to. Without the gene ABC's affected reporters appear incapable of telling fact from fiction and as a result it is open to spreading sensationalist propaganda.

Case in point is a report yesterday by ABC's Hamish Fitzsimmons. It appears that a dysfunctional perspective gene has affected Hamish's ability to do basic research.

Here's Hamish's headline:Sea level rises due to climate change could cost Australia $200b, Climate Council report finds
In his report Hamish provides a platform for professional doom-sayer Will Steffan to make the following statement:"If you look at a 1.1 metre sea level rise - which is the high-end scenario for 2100 but that's what we're tracking towards - you're looking at more than $200 billion worth of infrastructure that's at risk." "If you look at some of our most vulnerable areas, and the Sydney region is one of those, you would say toward the end of this century that a one-in-100-year flood is going to be happening every few days," he said.

In regard to a sea level rise of 1.1m (1100mm) Will Steffan says "That's what we're tracking towards". Really?

Hamish didn't bother looking at the facts, nor it seems did the alarmist Climate Council. We spent approximately 30 seconds on the internet to locate the following chart from thePermanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL):

This shows long term sea level in the Sydney area. The graph shows flattish trends from the start of the record to about 1950, then a step change, followed by flattish trends to the end of the data. A simplistic linear regression analysis would provide an average annual sea level rise of about 0.55 mm per year. Extrapolated to 2100 this would amount to an additional rise of 47 mm. This is a very small fraction of what Steffen believes "we're tracking towards".

We have a bunch of alarmist activist scientists who it seems are incapable of analysing real world data feeding gullible reporters who basically appear unwilling to check the facts. The end result is the spread of misinformation.

Unfortunately at this stage there is no cure to what is being called Sponge Syndrome.

Update: The chart below extends the raw Denison data forwards in time and shows what needs to happen in order to satisfy the Climate Councils notion of what we're tracking towards". This lacks credibility and the ABC should ask the council about it.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Thought a summary version of our FACT checking of BOM records might be of interest:

In recent weeks The Australian newspaper has exposed serious
issues with the manner in which the Bureau of Meteorology analyse Australia’s
temperature records. (See articles HERE,
and HERE).
BOM’s ACORN dataset is the result of a statistical homogenisation process. This
sometimes produces warming trends from data collected at high quality stations
where the station records themselves often show cooling trends. It seems some
of the adjustments made are justified but some it seems are not.

While the meteorological community continue to debate the
details over the validity of BOM’s analytical processes in adjusting historical
records I thought readers might be interested to know how BOM treat some of its
historical data.

In January this year eastern Australia experienced a
heatwave. This was similar to past heatwaves. It seems it was not as severe or
widespread as heatwaves in 1960 or in 1939. Nonetheless the episode was out of
the ordinary and worthy of the attention of our weather experts. BOM dutifully
reported on the heatwave and released a “Special climate statement”: number 48titled “One of southeast
Australia’s most significant heatwaves”.

According
to the Bureau Special Climate Statements: provide a detailed summary of significant weather and climate events.
They are produced on an occasional basis for weather/climate events which are
unusual in the context of the climatology of the affected region. Their purpose
is to document major events. In doing so, they
serve as a historical record, inform the public on the broader historical
and climatological context for events, and give easy access to data and
information which is in high demand from the media and the public.

On page 5 of statement number 48 BOM state: "Canberra also set a record with four
consecutive days of 39°C." The “record” was also picked up by ABC’s
weather guru Graham Creed in his ABC Weather Man blog. This “record” set my
sceptical senses tingling and I set about a little fact checking.

After a brief check through the National Library Newspaper
Archive I came across a few headlines from the Canberra Times that indicated
the BOM had got things wrong. In fact the newspaper records showed that in a
remarkable 7 day stint from the 8th of January 1939 to the 14th
of January the BOM’s ACTON weather station in Canberra recorded 7 days over 39 degrees,
including 4 days over 40, along with ACT’s record maximum temperature of 42.8
degrees on January 11, 1939. The ACTON station was closed in late January 1939
and a weather new station was opened at Canberra Airport.

I passed this advice on the ABC’s weather guru who corrected
his blog to indicate the 4 consecutive days were in fact recorded at BOM’s
newer Canberra Airport Station. The blog was not updated to reference the
newspaper stories or the 1939 weather records.

I requested the daily records for ACTON from the Bureau but for
some reason this station in our nation’s capital only had monthly data. It’s only the nation’s Capital! After
contacting the minister, the Bureau indicated it would as a matter of priority,
collate the data and place it on its website. This was back in January.

Earlier last week, about 8 months after my request, I
received an email from the Bureau to indicate the maximum temperature readings
for ACTON were now online. I checked and they confirmed the Newspaper reports.
Not wanting the historical record to be in error I requested BOM correct
its Climate Statement. This is the response:

The record referenced
in Special Climate Statement 48 is a station record for Canberra Airport
(station numbers 70014 and 70351), as is stated in Table 3.

It seems the historical record will be forever tainted! According
to the Bureau’s climate statement the record heatwave of 1939 did not happen in
Canberra. This despite the Bureau’s own data showing it did.

BOM’s homogenisation process may be valid or not, but it
seems its handling of the nation’s weather records, based on its handling of
ACTON, leaves much to be desired.

BOM describe their special climate statements in the following way:The Bureau's Special Climate Statements provide a detailed summary of significant weather and climate events. They are produced on an occasional basis for weather/climate events which are unusual in the context of the climatology of the affected region. Their purpose is to document major events. In doing so, they serve as a historical record, inform the public on the broader historical and climatological context for events, and give easy access to data and information which is in high demand from the media and the public.

THEY SERVE AS A HISTORICAL RECORD

We requested BOM make a correction to the climate statement about Canberra's recent "record" which is now shown to be false as the BOM's Canberra ACTON station shows the following run of highs in January 1939:Jan 1939 records indicate 7 consecutive days over 39°C between the 8th and 14th.Jan 8: 39.3Jan 9: 39.2Jan 10: 41.1Jan 11: 42.8Jan 12: 39.8Jan 13: 41.9Jan 14: 40.8

BOM responded thus:

Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 1:42 PMThe record referenced in Special Climate Statement 48 is a station record for Canberra Airport (station numbers 70014 and 70351), as is stated in Table 3.

Regards,Climate Analysis Section

Our response:

The main text does NOT indicate this and in its current form it is misleading. Please correct the main text.BOM provide the following description of its Special Climate Statements...Special Climate StatementsThe Bureau's Special Climate Statements provide a detailed summary of significant weather and climate events. They are produced on an occasional basis for weather/climate events which are unusual in the context of the climatology of the affected region. Their purpose is to document major events. In doing so, they serve as a historical record, inform the public on the broader historical and climatological context for events, and give easy access to data and information which is in high demand from the media and the public.

As BOM consider the statements "serve as a historical record" it is of utmost importance that errors are corrected. BOM's statement on page 5...that "Canberra also set a record with four consecutive days of 39°C." is clearly in error and requires correction.

It is common practice in scientific reports for a corrigendum to be issued to correct mistakes made in published papers. Given the historical importance BOM place on its special climate statements it seems the issue of a corrigendum is appropriate in this case.

We sent the following new request to BOM's climate services branch:In your "Special Climate Statement 48 – one of southeast Australia’s most significant heatwaves" BOM make the following claim: (p.5):"Canberra also set a record with four consecutive days of 39°C."With the release of the daily maximum figures for ACTON station this is now clearly false. Please correct the statement.http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1923&p_c=-982875403&p_stn_num=70099Jan 1939 records indicate 7 consecutive days over 39°C between the 8th and 14th.

Aim of ABC NEWS WATCH

In a diversifying media landscape news editors face an increasingly difficult challenge reviewing the work of reporters under their supervision. Inevitably some mistakes, errors and substandard articles slip past their critical eyes.

The simple aim of ABC NEWS WATCH is to publicise the errors, omissions, and substandard reports produced by the News service and related entities of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC). In doing so we hope to provide an independent check or audit on ABC news articles and in doing so improve the standard of ABC news reporting. After all it's our ABC.

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