Gallup: Despite Bain attacks, Romney more trusted than Obama on the economy

posted at 4:41 pm on July 23, 2012 by Allahpundit

The man’s nothing if not consistent. He campaigns as he governs, spending astounding sums to little effect.

Despite concerted Democratic attacks on his business record, Republican challenger Mitt Romney scores a significant advantage over President Obama when it comes to managing the economy, reducing the federal budget deficit and creating jobs, a national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds.

By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, in dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years…

The Democratic attacks on Romney seem to have had little effect on voters’ assessments of him. In February, 53% said the former Massachusetts governor had the personality and leadership qualities a president should have; now 54% do. Then, 42% said they agreed with Romney on the issues that mattered most to them; now 45% do.

Also significant against the backdrop of Bain demagoguery: 61 percent say that government’s trying to do too many things that should be left to the private sector, the highest number since Gallup began tracking that in the early 90s. Don’t read too much into that — no one in the GOP’s going to make a run at privatizing Social Security this year — but it’s significant mainly as a temperature check of the electorate. O’s spent weeks scaremongering about Romney’s supposedly rapacious entrepreneurial record in hopes of steering opinion his way on the public/private choice to come in November. How’s that working out?

[W]here is the evidence that anything has changed, outside of the media narrative? PrioritiesUSA, the Obama campaign’s super PAC, suggests this as the key finding: “37% of voters say that Romney’s business experience at Bain Capital make them LESS likely to vote for him. Just 27% say it makes them MORE likely to vote for him.”

But another way of reporting this information would be to say that, after a seven- to eight-figure ad blitz aimed at convincing voters that Romney is a cross between the buffoonish Thurston Howell III and the rapacious Gordon Gekko, 63 percent of voters either find Romney’s business experience irrelevant or say it makes them more likely to vote for him. (Of course, it also matters how those 37 percent are distributed. If the bulk of those who find Romney’s business experience unpalatable are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, then this isn’t much of a problem for the Republican’s campaign.)

The polls overall have barely budged, but there has been some dramatic movement in one key metric flagged by Trende:

That trend isn’t replicated in the new Gallup numbers — apparently, Obama leads Romney in likability by a two-to-one margin (the hard data isn’t available yet) — but there’s no obvious explanation to me for why O’s favorables should have tanked so dramatically besides a backlash to his negativity. Last month’s jobs numbers were bad, but the public’s been stoic about poor jobs reports thus far. Could be that swing voters are finally realizing that The One’s “hope and change” blather in 2008 was simply an opportunistic campaign strategy aimed at capitalizing on Bush fatigue, not some deeply felt outlook on politics. “Hope” won’t beat Romney after three years of grinding unemployment, so he and Ax and Plouffe are only too happy to toss it and reach for the two-by-four instead. Go figure that some pro-O independents who bought the hype four years ago might feel disillusioned.

Exit question: Did Obama hit Romney on Bain too soon? There are, evidently, fewer undecideds this year than there have been in the previous three elections, a quirk that Jazz speculated about yesterday. I think he’s onto something about the accelerating flow of information (a theory that’ll be familiar to Kaus fans), but I’m not sure which way it cuts. If, thanks to the ubiquity of political news and platforms on which to access it, you’ve got a better-informed and earlier-deciding electorate overall, does that mean you should attack earlier or later? My gut is that it’s dumb to slam your opponent during the summer doldrums if more people than usual have already made up their minds and only the hardcore apathetic undecideds, who are probably tuned out until fall, are left. But then, why not try to leverage the faster flow of info by getting the attention of those apathetics as soon as possible? Make a big stink about Bain now and hope they pay attention (a little). And yet, there’s been no poll movement. How come? Are the apathetics still asleep or just really unimpressed with the Bain nonsense?

By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, In dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years…

Even the liberals were happy when Romney restructured the MA government and got them out of their hole and the red ink. Of course you have to watch them, because once things look fixed they rush at the piles of money they think are there for the spending.

Are the apathetics still asleep or just really unimpressed with the Bain nonsense?

The ones on welfare ( including government and union workers) don’t know what to think .
The ones not on welfare but getting unemployemnt don’t care.
The ones who are employed are too busy , working their behinds off to support the moochers.
The ones who employ other people are too scared to say anything openly.

O’s spent weeks scaremongering about Romney’s supposedly rapacious entrepreneurial record in hopes of steering opinion his way on the public/private choice to come in November. How’s that working out?

They should keep trying. I have a good feeling about these Bain attacks. I would advocate a kind of surge, laying into it with more ads, opening up that war-chest and spending as much money as it takes to get results.

There are, evidently, fewer undecideds this year than there have been in the previous three elections, a quirk that Jazz speculated about yesterday. I think he’s onto something about the accelerating flow of information (a theory that’ll be familiar to Kaus fans), but I’m not sure which way it cuts. If, thanks to the ubiquity of political news and platforms on which to access it, you’ve got a better-informed and earlier-deciding electorate overall, does that mean you should attack earlier or later?

Maybe there are fewer undecided voters AT THIS STAGE than in previous elections, but as long as Obama is short of 50% in the polls, there are enough undecided voters to make a difference.

The Obama campaign has a financial advantage NOW, because it can legally spend general-election campaign dollars now while Romney is limited to primary-campaign dollars, even though everyone knows Romney will be the Republican nominee. The Obama campaign was trying to score a “knockout punch” with all its anti-Bain ads, but the gap in the RCP poll average has been closing, and is now down to Obama +1.1%, which is definitely within striking distance.

The flip-side of this ad blitz is that Obama has been using up money faster than Romney, while Romney has been RAISING money faster than Obama. Once Romney is officially nominated and begins his general-election campaign, if current trends continue, he will have MORE to spend than Obama, at a time when it really counts.

So far, Obama has spent lots of money to say that Romney is rich and laid off a few people, and most of the voters have said “So what?”. The key will be in September, when Romney will have a money advantage–and then he needs to get out a strong, positive message of how he will turn the economy around.

another attempt to break the hot air libor news censoring!
i will consider romney when he is not sponsered by currupt wall street banks that rigged the LIBOR rate for years and stole BILLIONS from all of us!
if a politician receives money from corrupt institutions than he is corrupt too!

BTW, Allah: I wasn’t the one with all the cat jokes…. All I did was suggest that maybe you had gone to the Atheist Conference in LV to mingle with like-minded Godless singles. It was all very tastefully done!

•Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are much more enthusiastic about the election, an important factor in persuading supporters to vote. By 18 points, 51%-33%, they report being more enthusiastic than usual about voting. In contrast, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 4 points say they are less enthusiastic than usual, 43%-39%.

BTW, Allah: I wasn’t the one with all the cat jokes…. All I did was suggest that maybe you had gone to the Atheist Conference in LV to mingle with like-minded Godless singles. It was all very tastefully done!

cynccook on July 23, 2012 at 5:21 PM

BWAHAHAHAH… Picturesw of Allahpundit in his Go-go boot’s or it didn’t happen… ;p

Funny, the current Sec. Treas. was charged with overseeing those very institutions, knew about it, and has done nothing.

So that leaves nathors argument as this:

Romney nebulously accused of corruption without any evidence to support the claim

vs

Geithner who is either incompetent, corrupt, or both.

BobMbx on July 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM

ah, so the corrupt bankers, bought both dems and repubs and are in our government and we dedicate all hot air articles to partisan sniping while news that we where very surely robbed by corrupt banks ignored? where are the hot air articles about the libor scandal?!?!

any way, why vote for Romney if one of his biggest sponsors are the now proven CORRUPT WALL STREET BANKS! should I vote for politicians paid by proven thieves?

By more than 2-1, 63%-29%, those surveyed say Romney’s background in business, including his tenure at the private equity firm Bain Capital, would cause him to make good decisions, not bad ones, In dealing with the nation’s economic problems over the next four years…
Lester, inthemiddle, uppereastside hardest hit.

conservative pilgrim on July 23, 2012 at 4:57 PM

This is literally, word-for-word what I was going to post. But wherever is UES on this happy day? Hmmmm. Nothing to say to this, I guess. :/ ?

wondered what exactly Obama had achieved with his month-long anti-Bain ad binge

He put money into the pockets of some of the local t.v. stations here in AZ, where he’s been running his tedious anti-Bain Romney ads pretty much non-stop. Doesn’t appear to have changed anyone’s mind about voting, but it’s good for the local economy. Plus, after all the money Obama has cost AZ with all his bogus lawsuits against us, it’s about time he put some money back in. So keep spending, Barry. We still won’t vote for you, but keep spending!

The Obama campaign has a financial advantage NOW, because it can legally spend general-election campaign dollars now while Romney is limited to primary-campaign dollars, even though everyone knows Romney will be the Republican nominee. The Obama campaign was trying to score a “knockout punch” with all its anti-Bain ads, but the gap in the RCP poll average has been closing, and is now down to Obama +1.1%, which is definitely within striking distance.

Steve Z on July 23, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Good points, to which I would just add that in the RCP average you cited, most of the polls are still of registered voters with a ridiculous Democrat advantage. Applying a likely voter model, or just adjusting the D/R/I percentages to reflect more likely turnout (two different methodologies), the race is either tied or tilts slightly to Romney already.

….welcome back A P !…I gues everybody missed your cat or something!
Shouldn’t the poll be like 10 to 1?
JugEars couldn’t keep track of one 2 quart pitcher of Lemonade…if he was selling 8 ounce glasses on the front lawn of the White House!

I’d trust him more even if I saw Romney holding up a bank. Obama’s an amateur.

CW on July 23, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Well, yeah, sure because Romney would invest the takings and provide a 70% return to his investors! 0blama would squander the loot by renting out a movie theater and inviting all of his friends to come. But only half of them would show up and most of that number would just be homeless people looking to get out of the heat.

I’d trust him more even if I saw Romney holding up a bank. Obama’s an amateur.

CW on July 23, 2012 at 6:01 PM

lets get this straight, banks are now proven to be currupt thieves! its not the “systemic failure” BS of 2008! the big banks where fixing the rate while making billions of trades out of the same libor rate they fixed. these same banks are giving boatloads of stolen cash to our politicians and its all ok with you? are you insane? are all you partisan bots in this forum insane?

forget about obama here… he was payed by corrupt banks too… i am not sure if this scandal hurts more repubs or dems.
these are the shitty candidates we have so we have to live with it. however, both romney and obama could return contributions from wall street banks that were involved in the libor scandal. it this cycle it might cost more romney, but its the right thing to do and he should do it!

another thing is why is Hot Air ignoring this scandal? I mean its ZERO articles on something that makes madoff look like a boy scout!

What exactly is it you want and expect? Hot Air doesn’t have any writers who specialize in the deep weeds of high finance, the scandal is centered in the UK. Sure, Geithner should have done more than send an email about it, but he didn’t and there really isn’t anything that is going to be done about that anyway.

Can’t you find the financial sites which are giving this full coverage?