1. NHS ON BREXIT ALERT: “Extensive planning” is taking place within the government to ensure the National Health Service does not run out of medicines and equipment in a cliff-edge, no-deal Brexit scenario, NHS England chief executive Simon Stevens told Andrew Marr this morning. Watch.

Simon says: “There is immediate planning which the health department, with other parts of government, are undertaking around securing medicine supply and equipment under different scenarios. That will obviously crystallize when it’s clear later this autumn what the U.K.’s position will be,” Stevens said.

Why it matters: Reports of contingency plans for the possible doomsday no-deal Brexit scenarios (including fears hospitals could run out of medicines within two weeks) were dismissed by the government a few weeks ago. Confirmation that something as critical as medicines supply may be under threat in the event of a no-deal Brexit, from someone as senior and sober as Stevens is a sharp reminder of what’s at stake in Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations — with Brussels, and with her own Cabinet.

2. MAY’S BIGGEST MONTH: It’s the first day of July and it’s crystal clear it could be a defining month for May’s premiership. The Sunday papers are chock full of leadership challenge talk ahead of Friday’s Cabinet showdown at May’s country residence Chequers, and the imminent presentation of the government’s Brexit future relationship white paper. There’s also the small matter of Donald Trump’s visit, a NATO summit and a House of Commons vote on the customs union. Buckle up.

How many? Most of the papers deliver long reads on the extraordinary extent of discord in the Cabinet and the wider Conservative party. The Sunday Times claims that 20 — yes, 20 — MPs are preparing to launch leadership bids if May falls.

How does it happen? An unnamed former Cabinet minister quoted in the Observer sums up the most likely leadership challenge scenario: “May upsets the Brexiteers, and they bang in the letters [calling for a leadership contest, 48 of which are required to trigger a contest] … The whole thing is on a hair trigger. If she can get through to 23 July [when summer recess begins] everyone will be going away for their holiday. But it could be a bloody autumn.”

Bring it on: Briefings from a “senior Tory” to the Sunday Times suggest May is prepared to fight to the last, even if it means winning a leadership election by one vote. That means 159 Tory MPs would need to abandon her to end the May era.

RUNNERS AND RIDERS: Various Cabinet ministers are reported to be making maneuvers, including Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt and Gavin Williamson. “The intense activity stems from a belief that when May falls it will happen quickly,” writes Tim Shipman in the Sunday Times: “People want to be ready,” one MP said. One man who is not many people’s favorite anymore is Boris Johnson: “Cabinet colleagues see Johnson as damaged goods and think he will struggle to make it into the final two contenders.” Ouch.

‘I’m still PM…’ May herself has an article in the Sunday Telegraph announcing the foundation of a Conservative Policy Commission, calling on MPs, peers and members to submit 1,000 policy ideas to help the Tories win the next general election — which, it seems, May still wants to contest.

Calling for calm… Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 committee of backbench Tory MPs (which would administer any leadership contest), writes in the Observer that disunity at the top of government undermines the U.K.’s negotiating position with Brussels, but also makes a Labour government more likely.

3. BREXIT D-DAY At the heart of the threat to May is the imminent publication of the future relationship white paper, which will be finalized at Chequers. Housing Secretary James Brokenshire captured the mood in Cabinet with delicate understatement: “There’s no doubt there are strong views on either side.” At the heart of the debate is how closely the U.K. will seek to abide by EU rules when it comes to the goods trade.

The Absolutists: Thirty-six Brexiteer MPs wrote to the prime minister, warning that the U.K.’s departure from the EU must be “absolute,” with no entanglements with EU institutions. That’s going to be very hard for the white paper to deliver, given that May has already signaled that she wants associate membership of some EU agencies and that the European Court of Justice could still have indirect influence on British laws.

Chequers build-up: The Cabinet summit, expected this Friday, is likely to finally resolve the question of which customs arrangement the U.K. wants with the EU after Brexit. In a sign of how fruitful discussions might be, Environment Secretary Gove literally ripped up a report on the customs model preferred by soft Brexiteers in the Cabinet. Meanwhile, speaking to Sophy Ridge on Sky, Business Secretary Greg Clark reiterated that he “very strongly” disagrees with Boris Johnson’s “f*** business” comments.

Robbins versus Davis: According to the Sunday Times, May’s chief Brexit adviser Olly Robbins viewed with suspicion and sometimes outright hostility by Brexiteers, “will introduce proposals this week for a Norway-style arrangement that would keep Britain aligned to EU rules on the sale of goods, grant EU citizens with a job the right to travel at will to the UK and grant a greater role for the European Court of Justice than Euroskeptics will tolerate.” The Sunday Telegraph claims that Brexit Secretary David Davis “could walk out” in protest at the scale of Robbins’ influence. But then, he’s threatened to quit a few times before…

REMINDER: EU Brexit officials say the so-called “single market in goods” model is not on the table. It’s full single market, with free movement, or it’s a Canada-style trade deal, as far as they’re concerned. However, the U.K. may have more negotiating time than we thought, after reports this week that, factoring in Brussels holidays, there are just six negotiating weeks left till the October deadline for a deal. Not so, says Stefaan de Rynck, an adviser to the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier.

BREXIT MEDICINE:Simon Stevens is a better communicator than most Cabinet ministers and gave an assured interview to Andrew Marr in which he committed serious news, revealing government preparations to ensure medicines supply in all Brexit scenarios. He also said NHS hospitals should “reach out” to EU nationals on their staff with information about how to apply to continue living and working in the U.K.

“We won’t do it live on air Andrew, but you dip it into your poo…” Is something Stevens actually said, answering a question on NHS cancer survival rates by presenting a dip-stick that the health service is going to begin sending to homes for people to self-test, returning a sample that can be checked for early signs of bowel cancer, hopefully improving early diagnosis rates. He certainly knows how to get his point across.

Stevens said that the NHS cash injection announced by the government in recent weeks would lead to “genuine improvements” in care. (Watch.) He also said he expects the same kind of boost for social care, and even had a go at the adverts for cosmetic surgery being trailed during the ad breaks of “Love Island,” guaranteeing some tabloid coverage for his health responsibility message.

‘Grown-up’ in the room? Amid wall-to-wall reports of Cabinet in-fighting, James Brokenshire was picked to appear on Marr, and was the image of calm. “Brokenshire was a good choice for Marr today as he is not a baby spitting out his dummy and I doubt he has leadership ambitions,” observed Labour MP Jess Phillips on Twitter. Brokenshire predicted a “clear direction” on Brexit would emerge from the Chequers summit, once again ruled out the U.K. staying in the single market (without really engaging on the idea of a single market just for goods) and confirmed that local authorities are doing contingency planning for a no-deal Brexit.

DANNY DYER LATEST: Marr couldn’t resist asking Brokenshire whether the nation’s new favorite political commentator Danny Dyer was correct to characterize Brexit as “this mad riddle that no one knows what it is.” Brokenshire replied, with a straight face: “I’m not going to engage directly with Danny Dyer’s quote.” Watch.

Albright on Trump: The Clinton-era U.S. secretary of state issued a strong critique of the Trump administration’s family separation policy at the Mexico border. “I thought it was un-American. I’d never seen anything like that. And it does remind one of what happened in fascist countries,” she told Marr. Albright was also withering about Trump’s supposed diplomatic prowess. On the North Korea summit, she said: “I’ve been asked whether it was a win-win or a Kim-win. It was a Kim-win.”

LOST IN TRANSITION: Both Business Secretary Greg Clark and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn endorsed the idea of the post-Brexit transition period. “When it comes to putting in place the arrangements for our final, our permanent relationship, we have to be guided by the evidence … You have to look at what’s required,” said Clark. Watch.

F*** Boris: Asked about Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s reported “f*** business” Brexit comments (which Johnson has declined to deny), Clark was about as pointed as he could be: “The collective [Cabinet] responsibility we have is there for a reason and I think it’s important … I very strongly disagree with those statements,” he said.

Meanwhile in Labour land: Corbyn said Labour is “not supporting a second referendum” without quite categorically ruling out that it ever would. A new YouGov poll of members of the country’s biggest union, Unite, reported in the Observer, shows that an overwhelming majority of members believe the current Labour position of leaving the single market will be bad for jobs, and that a majority also support a second referendum.

Cannabis: The Labour leader said that he was against “criminalizing people for possession of small amounts of cannabis.” Watch.

World Cup: He also talked about how much he is enjoying the World Cup and offered Sophy Ridge some further reading tips: “Football is poetry, read Albert Camus on football. He’s your man.” Watch.

GISELA ON MICHEL: Former Labour MP and Vote Leave figurehead Gisela Stuart offered an intriguing view of EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier: “He’s a good man, he’s a decent man but at heart he is a Gaullist, so I think in private he probably sheds fewer tears about the U.K. leaving than you might think.”

‘WE’D FORCE AN ELECTION:’ Jeremy Corbyn cropped up again, in a pre-recorded interview from an NHS march. He was more explicit than ever about Labour’s game-plan in the event of a Brexit deal they don’t like, or no-deal. Watch.

Bolton and the Brexiteers: Leading backbench Brexiteer and former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith confirmed reports that he and other Leave-backing Tories met U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, without any government officials present. “John’s an old friend … he’s a very pro-British American … I wouldn’t read too much into it … America wants to do a trade deal with us as quickly as possible,” he said.

Crash the pound? Moi? Meanwhile, former UKIP leader, MEP and aspiring shock-jock Nigel Farage denied claims in a Bloomberg article that he may have helped hedge funds make millions by conceding defeat when he, allegedly, knew the vote would go the other way. “The whole thing is too fantastical to believe,” he said. Watch.

EARLY YEARS:Nadhim Zahawi announced £6.5 million to pilot early intervention programs, especially to develop language skills in pre-school children.

BREXIT: Zahawi was the model loyal minister, keen to emphasize the prime minister’s ability to reach deals when no one thought it was possible. He said experts on all sides told the foreign affairs select committee a no-deal Brexit was “mutually assured destruction,” and concluded no one in the EU wants this either. Asked by Lynn Davidson to name anything Brussels has compromised on, Zahawi said the deal on the Brexit bill was a good one for the U.K. “They wanted £100 billion and it’s down around £30-40 billion.”

Gardiner’s World: In a fractious interview, Labour’s Barry Gardiner said the Conservative Cabinet members are “fighting like rats in a sack” because some of them want the “hardest possible Brexit.” He said his party was representative of the split in the country as a whole on Brexit and therefore was forced to find compromises. Pushed by John Pienaar to explain the differences between Labour’s Brexit position and the government’s, Gardiner said the Tories were moving closer to Labour policy.

Bold: Zahawi bet Pienaar’s mortgage that we’ll see a united Cabinet by the end of the week.

HOW TO HANDLE TRUMP: Former U.S. ambassador Sir Christopher Meyer said he would love to be in Washington for Trump’s “wild and woolly” presidency. He said British diplomats must get “back to basics” and build relationships with Trump’s inner circle and that the president had no time for multilateral diplomacy.

NHS: Simon Stevens answers questions from the House of Commons health and social care committee on the government’s five-year funding plan for the NHS, 3.30 p.m. local time.

Homes: Housing Minister Dominic Raab speaks at the House of Commons housing, communities and local government committee regarding safety regulations of residential tower blocks, 4 p.m. local time.

TUESDAY

Social Media: The health impact of extended screen-use and social media on young people will be analyzed by medical experts in front of the House of Commons science and technology committee, 9.30 a.m. local time.

Ofgem: Martin Cave, the government’s preferred candidate for Ofgem chair, will face questioning by the House of Commons business, energy and industrial strategy committee, 10.00 a.m. local time.

Scotland: The Scottish Affairs committee will hear evidence on what Scotland’s future trade relationship with the EU might look like post Brexit, 10.15 a.m. local time.

Brexit: Trade Minister George Hollingbery will address the European scrutiny committee about the future EU-U.K. trade deal post Brexit, 2.15 p.m. local time.

Parliament: Theresa May takes Prime Minister’s Questions, as usual, in the House of Common, 12.00 p.m. local time

Gove: The environment secretary will be quizzed by the European scrutiny committee in Westminster about the implications of Brexit on the fishing industry, 2.15 p.m. local time.

THURSDAY

Parliament: MPs will debate the possible introduction of a proxy voting system in the House of Commons, 9.30 a.m. local time

FRIDAY

Chequers: May’s Cabinet are off to the PM’s cabin in Chequers for the day to debate the long-awaited new Brexit white paper. The document promises to detail the U.K.’s strategy on negotiating with Brussels as Britain’s departure date from the EU looms.

Barnier: EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier giving speech at the Institute of International and European Affairs in Brussels, timing tbc

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