Colorado's Tyson Barrie is emerging as an elite offensive blueliner. Edmonton's Justin Schultz? Not so much.

Edmonton Oilers defenceman Justin Schultz has become something of a polarizing figure in Oil Country. His supporters, seemingly an ever-dwindling number, point to the fact that he is still a young, developing player. He is currently completing his third NHL season and doesn’t turn 25 until July 6, by which time another delicate contract negotiation is expected.

The hoopla that surrounded Schultz’s initial signing with the Oil three summers ago has quieted considerably. After failing to come to terms with Anaheim Ducks, the team that drafted him 43rd overall in 2008, the right-shooting offensive blueliner left the University of Wisconsin after his junior season to become one of the most celebrated free agents in many years. Virtually every NHL team courted him, making his choice of Edmonton a red-letter day for the franchise. When he followed up with a spectacular performance in Oklahoma City during the Third Bettman Lockout, it seemed the sky was the limit for his potential as an elite offensive defenceman.

Recalled immediately following the lockout, Schultz delivered a respectable showing in the 48-game NHL season, earning a selection to the All-Rookie Team. But since then his production numbers have gone backwards, while the rest of his game remains frustratingly incomplete.

Schultz’s failure to develop stands in stark contrast to one of tonight’s opponents, Tyson Barrie of the Colorado Avalanche. Barrie is a whole year younger than Schultz, with a lower draft pedigree (the Avalanche took him 64th overall in 2009). The right-shooting offensive blueliner followed a more traditional development path, playing junior hockey with Kelowna Rockets, then signing with the team that drafted him and proceeding to the AHL. The lockout coincided with his second AHL season, where his performance was under the radar. Nonetheless the Avs called him up to stay after the lockout ended, and since then his career path has mirrored that of Schultz.

At least in terms of opportunity, it has. In terms of actual performance and production, not so much. Read it and weep, Oilers fans:

Both players are in similar situations, playing on young teams with a core group of high-pedigree forwards. In Barrie’s case that’s Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog, and Nathan MacKinnon; for Schultz, it’s Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Nail Yakupov. Both play on weak blueline corps, though it’s worth noting Barrie’s reduced ice time in 2013-14, the season the Avs took a big step forward and made the playoffs. Sheltered minutes notwithstanding, Barrie’s importance was underscored in the playoffs when Colorado’s fortunes went south after he was injured by a Matt Cooke cheap shot in Game Three.

This year the Avs defence corps has been reduced by injury to #1 defender Erik Johnson (their Jeff Petry) and the aging of core veteran Jan Hejda (their Andrew Ference). Barrie has stepped up into increased responsibility, leading the blue in total ice time compared to his #4 ranking of a season ago, but continues to improve. His 49 points rank 6th among NHL blueliners. Schultz’s 28 points, meanwhile, rank a distant 49th, as a lack of blueline scoring continues to haunt the Oilers.

Both have had similar opportunity in 2014-15, but Barrie has done far more with his minutes, especially at even strength:

Both players are the primary quarterback of the #1 powerplay unit, seeing about 3 minutes of ice time per game. Neither is a mainstream penalty killer. Schultz gets about 80 seconds more ice time a night at even strength.

At evens, Barrie has been paired with the less-than-imposing Nate Guenin on the blue, and has spent the bulk of his time playing with top six forwards (the four named above plus Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay). He has been getting a slight boost with offensive zone starts, some 3.7% more than the team average.

For his part Schultz has been paired primarily with rookie Oscar Klefbom, and has also spent the bulk of his time playing with top six forwards (the four named above plus Teddy Purcell and Benoit Pouliot). He has, however, received a very strong push, as his offensive zone starts rate +20.7% relative to the team average.

Schultz has posted superior results in possession stats, though when parsed relative to teammates the margin between them is slender. Barrie has fired more shots (134 to 115), has roughly double Schultz’s hit rate (1.0 to 0.5 per game), twice as many takeaways (36 to 18), and significantly fewer giveaways (40 to 57). Granted those last stats are problematic due to erratic recording from one NHL rink to the next, but the difference in TkA:GvA ratios is pretty stark: 0.9 for Barrie, 0.3 for Schultz.

Both Barrie and Schultz negotiated extensions last summer, having completed their entry-level contracts. Barrie’s ELC was for standard rates, and his two-year extension at a cap hit of $2.6 MM represented a nice raise for him. Schultz, meanwhile, was negotiating from a base of his bonus-laden free-agent contract. He and the Oilers agreed to a one-year extension for $3.675 MM, and that will serve as the base for any qualifying offer to be extended this summer.

Hard to look at any of that and conclude the Oilers have got the better player, let alone the better bargain. But when it comes time to negotiate Schultz’s next extension, or arbitrate it should the Oilers pursue that route, the club would be well advised to list Tyson Barrie among the comparables.

Tonight, that comparison can be made on the ice as Schultz’s Oilers take on Barrie’s Avalanche in the Mile High City. It’s an interesting diversion for fans watching an otherwise meaningless game, as both teams limp towards the finish line. Patrick Roy’s crew are still in the hunt mathematically, but that math is nonetheless very stark: 8 points back, 7 games left, 4 teams between them and the playoff cutline. Even a seven-game winning streak won’t be enough.

The Oilers struck a final blow to Colorado’s flickering playoff hopes with a 4-3 win in Edmonton last week. Back on the road after a solid 4-1-1 homestand, they’ll ice the exact same line-up tonight that blanked Dallas 4-0 on Friday:

Fresh off the shutout, Richard Bachman gets another look between the pipes. Niki Nikitin, who left that game after getting drilled with a shot, has been declared good to go. Meanwhile veteran forwards Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks both skated on Monday morning, but are being held out for now. Seems like Todd Nelson is sticking to that tried-and-true axiom of “don’t mess with a winning line-up”, which is not something that can be said very often about this Oilers group. A win tonight would give them their first three-game winning streak since October.

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