Can Blake Beavan be the Next Doug Fister?

Tonight, Doug Fister returned to Safeco Field as a member of the Tigers, to take on the Mariners and Blake Beavan. Beavan only worked three innings, after wearing a Miguel Cabrera laser off his pitching elbow. But, watching Beavan and Fister work, one could not help but notice some similarities between the two.

First, they are both tall right-handers, both throw over the top and have similar “stuff.” At this point, Fister is more polished, and has demonstrated his ability to generate groundballs. But, could Blake Beavan, with only 20 appearances at the MLB level, develop into another Doug Fister? Let’s compare their numbers to see how Fister’s numbers compared to Beavans’ after 20 games.

Through 20 games, all starts, Beavan has a career 6-9 mark and a 4.31 ERA. He’s worked 127.1 innings, allowing an opposing .276 AVG. He strikes out 3.9 batters per nine innings, walks just 1.2 hitters per nine innings, a 2.89 K/BB ratio. Beavan’s opposing AVG of .276 exceeds the average MLB opposing batting average of .254, but his low walk rate keeps his opposing OBP (.308) below the MLB average (.320).

Through Fister’s first 20 MLB games, including 19 starts, he had a career mark of 6-6 and an 3.07 ERA. He worked 123 innings, allowing an opposing .240 AVG. He struck out 4.54 batters per nine innings and walked just 1.83 hitters per nine innings. Fister maintained a 2.48 K/BB ratio over his first 20 MLB appearances.

What can we make of these statistics? They basically tell us that, Fister was probably a little better over his first 20 MLB games. They worked roughly the same number of innings, but Fister struck out more hitters and held opposing hitters to a lower AVG. But, Fister’s numbers may also be misleading. As Mariner fans may recall, in 2010, Fister started the season hot, but he trailed off significantly during the second half. While Fister maintained an opposing AVG of .216 during the part of the 2010 season that fell within his first 20 career appearances, by season’s end, he had allowed a .277 opposing AVG.

Ultimately, the Mariners would be thrilled if Beavan could develop into a consistent middle-to-front-end starter. And, at 23 years old, there is still plenty of time for Beavan to grow. Like Fister, he has that bulldog mentality to go right after hitters. He is not afraid to pump the strike zone, as is reflected in his low base-on-balls ratio. Beavan’s mental makeup can take him just as far as any physical attributes he possesses. So, can Beavan develop into a Doug Fister type pitcher? His mentality tells us that he definitely could. Why not? But will he? We’ll see.