Cause and Effect (Warriors 116, Nuggets 123)

For all the talk about how successful the Warriors’ starters have been, Mark Jackson sure wasn’t anxious to play them together in the final 18 minutes of the Warriors’ ugly 116-123 loss to the Denver Nuggets. The Curry/Thompson/Iguodala/Lee/Bogut combo played a total of 1:28 together during the final quarter and a half (they were +4 for that brief stretch). And for all of Jackson’s talk about being a defensive-minded basketball team, Jackson chose offense over defense with the game on the line, playing his two best defenders (Bogut and Green) for a combined total of 33 seconds in the game’s final 6 minutes. So while it may be frustrating that the Warriors gave up easy baskets on blown pick-and-roll defense and were out-rebounded on crucial second-chance opportunities, it’s far from surprising.

The hockey substitutions may be gone — Jackson played Thompson or Iguodala with the bench crew at all times on Wednesday — but another one of Jackson’s bad coaching habits has returned. When backed into a corner, Jackson’s instincts still default to offense above defense. Despite the Warriors allowing the Nuggets to shoot over 50% from the field (54.2% in the end) and losing the rebounding battle (ultimately 41 to 46), Jackson continued to go small in hopes of winning the game by exploiting mismatches on offense. Bogut had managed 10 rebounds in only 24 minutes and protected the paint, but he sat down the stretch so Barnes could potentially get post-up isolation opportunities against a smaller Nuggets player.

Too clever by half, Jackson’s line-up only exacerbated the Warriors’ problems. Nate Robinson was hot early in the fourth quarter, but it was ultimately two instances of blown pick-and-roll defense by David Lee and Klay Thompson and missed rebound opportunities by the entire team that sealed the Warriors’ fate. The Nuggets shot 50% for the quarter (up from 42% in the third) and out-rebounded the Warriors 14-8 (after being out-rebounded 11-14 in the third). Mix in a costly turnover down the stretch by Curry, who had played nearly the entire second half without a break, and you’ve nearly filled up your “frustrating Warriors loss” bingo card.

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Some highlights and lowlights:

David Lee had a terrific offensive game, getting to the rim and punishing the Nuggets for going small. It was the type of aggressive performance that has been the hallmark of his resurgence in the season’s second quarter. He got burned on the pick-and-roll late in the game, but I put that more on Jackson than Lee at this point. Lee is who he is. Everyone in the NBA knows that he’s a poor pick-and-roll defender. The leading reason the Warriors acquired Bogut was to play defense next to Lee, to cover for his mistakes. But if Bogut sits during crucial stretches of the game, leaving Lee all alone to defend opposing big men, the Warriors can’t be surprised or upset when Lee gets burned. If you want Lee on the court for his offense, you need to take steps to protect him on defense. Jackson failed on that count, and it was one of the main reasons the Warriors lost the game.

Fatigue may be beginning to catch up with Stephen Curry. After going 3-6 in the first half, he shot 4-13 in the second (2-8 in the fourth quarter). Curry’s difficulties are compounded when he has to create his own shot rather than working off picks. With the best pick-setter on the team (Bogut) sitting for most of the fourth, Curry resorted to forcing up extra-long threes early in the shot-clock before the defense could collapse on him. They were desperation looks because Curry had little faith he’d see more open space later in the possession. Again, while Curry must shoulder some of the blame, I put most of the responsibility on Jackson for not even attempting an offense that would help free up his best scorer. Curry also only had one assist during the fourth quarter — a good indicator of how stagnant the Warriors’ offense had become in its fixation to win perceived mismatches.

The bench — Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green, in particular — showed signs of life. The improvement may have more to do with who the bench players were running with than any change in their individual games. Barnes and Green scored more off the bench because they spent more time playing with Curry and other starters. When Jackson fielded a line-up with 2 or fewer starters against the Nuggets, the Warriors were still outscored by 9 points. The true test for the bench will come when Jordan Crawford arrives on Friday. If the bench players can continue to contribute points on a Crawford-led team, the Warriors may be getting somewhere.

The fact that the Warriors had won 11 of 12 games is not a defense to a loss like this one. If anything, it makes the loss worse because we know the team is capable of so much more. The inspired individual play from Curry, Lee and Bogut during the win streak helped smooth over the rough patches in Jackson’s coaching decisions. But against tougher Western opponents, the Warriors won’t have as much margin for error. If the Warriors are going to be a defensive-minded team, they need to play their defenders. And if they really have the best starting line-up in basketball, they should force opponents to adapt to it rather than abandoning it to adapt to opponents. I have no problem with Jackson calling out his players after losses like this one — there will always be room for improvement. But he should apply the same standard when evaluating his coaching performance.

Adam Lauridsen

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Go ahead and just make stuff up. That’s your way. You obviously don’t read the Bucks blogs.
Hammond is about the absolute worst GM and how’d that Ellis/Udoh /Kwame thing work out?

Eric Eiserloh

I had the Dubs at 33-36 at the start of the season going into the break, so they are on pace.

That said, I hate to see them lose games they should win….

Believewhat

“how do you explain all the wins the w’s have had with him on the bench in the 4th quarter”

Simple, have Green next to Lee, that is how we won the games with Bogut on bench.

Believewhat

Eric, it is better to lose few games so coaches can learn from this game. If dubs have won, coaches would have repeated the same mistake and would have lost next game.

Looking forward to OKC game. That will be a heck of a game.

Believewhat

steve, Denver went 12-24 on 3s with Nate Robinson hitting amazing shots way outside 3PT line where you don’t even try to defend. We would win these games more often than not even with coaching mistakes, just not our day. Just 1 game, may be this loss will push them towards a win streak much like Spurs loss.

Believewhat

“However, when JON and/or FE return, I don’t expect him to go small again”

If Bogut got 24 mins going double-double in those mins couldn’t convince coach to put him floor longer, what makes you think FE and JOL will change that ? Coach has some tendencies and he will not change.

Believewhat

We even didn’t put our best small ball team out there. Small for small works much better with Green there with Lee so we wouldn’t be at disadvantage on boards. Couple of rebounds in last 2 mins with Green there if not Bogut would have sealed the game for dubs.

Jack Kornblau

The decision to sit Bogut the entire 4th quarter was inexcusable. Since when don’t you need your best rim defender and rebounder at the end of a game? Hickson, a far better rebounder than Mosgov was in the game, so why not Bogut? His 2 late offensive rebounds killed Ws last chance. Near the end, with the game still winnable, SC with loads of minutes behind him is trying to juke yet another defender at the top of the key while Lee was killing Nuggets all quarter. It was not a high percentage play when they needed one. Result is SC gets picked for the second time, concluding one of MJ’s worst coached games this season. Ws can’t get Jordan into the game fast enough IMO.

Jackson elected to play Andrew Bogut for little more than a minute in the fourth quarter, favoring a small
defense against the short Denver lineups. The Warriors scored well enough with Bogut seated, but they also ceded easy layups and crucial rebounds to an energetic Denver team.

The Warriors won’t blame anyone but themselves for a nationally televised home loss, and Crawford probably won’t help them address the defensive lapses they suffered. Still, they need a player who can carry the bench on an evening when the opponent can’t miss. Having lost to an incandescent Robinson, the Warriors seek to thrive going forward with a gunner of their own.

nelliebiggestfan

I would like to see some links to stories that quote Bogut’s ex teammates saying what a wonderful guy he is. Let me know when you find some of those stories..

Mr Mully

I fail to see a single “rip job” quote in this piece.

coltraning

I thought this was a pitch perfect analysis, Adam. When you score 116 points, 58 per half, offense is NOT your problem, but when you give up 123 on plus 50% shooting and get beasted on the boards by JJ Hickson, defense decidedly is. This was a frustrating loss, coming at home to a team the Ws should have handled, and I agree that if they had played what many now call the best starting 5 in the league more, you could probably have knocked 10-15 points off Denver’s final total.

I’m going to start and finish this next sentence with a simple statement that I hope is clear. Steph Curry’s shooting woes of late are NOT why the Ws lost last night. 116 Points, with the league’s 5th best defense should be plenty. And the Ws are still 12-3 during his bad shooting slump, so that is a GOOD thing. However, it does seem that something more than a slump is going on with Steph’s shooting. He is down to shooting 30% on 3s in January, despite firing up 10 a game. (Klay is at a respectable 42% in January on 7 shots per game). Whether it is fatigue, mechanics, the incredible attention he is getting (Denver trapped him on almost every possession, so major props to have only two TOs), he is just not shooting the ball anywhere near the devastatingly good way he was last year or even earlier this year, and has shut well south of 40% in 8 of the last 13 games, only shooting over 50% once. In the last 6 games he has shot 13/54 from 3, South of 25%. At that level, taking 9 3s a game is perhaps not the best choice. Again, so it cannot be misconstrued except if you want to, Steph Curry’s shooting woes of late are NOT why the Ws lost last night, but you have to wonder what is going on when such a preternaturally gifted scorer is in such an extended slump.

nelliebiggestfan

still haven’t seen how bogut’s comments about TD are postitive for the team in any way. What did bogut think he was accomplishing by trashing TD ? What do you think TD thinks of bogut now that he’s publicly stabbed him in the back and smeared his work ethic ? This is the kind of behavior that gets you hated around the league, It looks like bogut doesn’t care about that but he should care about how his peers see him , shouldn’t he ?

Believewhat

Ray Allen is like 2-20 or so in Jan. Shooters do go through the stretches where they do struggle with the form but good news is dubs are 12-3 during that stretch. It is important that curry do not get frustrated because of this though as he still getting defense attention and he has capable scorers around him.

Believewhat

Last blog, I identified that bringing balance to the offense with the excellent D(yesterday’s game not withstanding) would be key for dubs to go to next level. That means, Dre and Bogut should get more touches. I would have some plays run for Dre to get him going. We don’t need him to average 20PTs but anything less than 14 pts a game is doing injustice to his talent. Bogut should attempt 8-10 shots for 12pts a game, he was on that pace yesterday when coach pulled him. It is almost like coach is looking for excuses to pull Bogut out. These two are veterans with offensive skills and they will be up to task if given that task by coaches.

Believewhat

JanG,

BTW, I didn’t down vote, just so as you know

jsl165

TSTTS.

If one can’t detect Jax’s openly-leeching, coaching warts in a fiasco like last night, well, one is either paying no attention or, more likely, is simply a complete moron.

Believewhat

His statements are not direct on TD. He basically said, you could be traded if you are not putting effort and improve and he also stated it could happen to anyone implying to himself too. He took the news that dubs were trying to trade him in off season for Dwight Howard as professionally as possible.

“You never want to get too comfortable in the locker room, because you
could get that phone call. But, at the same time, you know that it’s
nothing personal and they’re trying to get better,”

jsl165

But ET’s got a point: the secret to really bad TOs is t-t-t-timing.

And, tired or not, Curry’s was especially bad last night.

nelliebiggestfan

iSoA wrote that the w’s should have stayed big and “punished” the small nuggets. Much easier said than done. This board has always undervalued the havoc small ball can wreak when implemented properly. Let’s say MJ played his starters in the 4th against HIckson, chandler, foye, robinson and Lawson. Every nugget would have a huge quickness advantage and every nugget would be able to take their man off the dribble, force help to be given and that would create an open 3 on every possession. The only real way to stop small ball is to play like the grizzlies and take the air out of the ball, walk it up and pound it inside to your bigs. But that isn’t the w;s preferred style of play, they like to play uptempo open court basketball. You can’t change your style back and forth depending on the opponent. If you want to play like Memphis you have to be like them all the time and your personell has to match that style of play. Bogut and Lee aren’t the low post monsters gasol and Randolph are. I don’t see the w’s scaring anyone in the playoffs if they try to combine this group of players with the grizzlies style of play. It doesn’t fit. Lot’s of high quality teams go small when faced with an opponent who has decided to go small because it’s very difficult to overcome those matchup problems with size and rebounding.

jsl165

Moron Trolls stirring up their dung.

JanG

Hope you’re wrong. Still believe Bogut off bench will work but he needs to be in close game at end. How the Nuggets and JJ got all those rebounds is blame to go around to MJ, DL, and even HB.

Believewhat

I am not against coach pulling Bogut scared of hack a bogut. But time to do is when Warriors are on bonus and last 2 mins, rules don’t allow hacking. Dubs have a team that can win playing small ball or big ball especially against teams like Denver. However, what worked against teams like Miami is putting Green with Lee. Green less of a offensive talent than Barnes but boards like a big. So, I think coach has done a wrong going small and even worse by not putting his best small team there. The winning frontline for dubs is putting two of Bogut, Lee and Green on the floor. Barnes at 4, if teams can advantage on boards, is losing strategy.

earl monroe

my guess is that steph did too much weight training, could also be the same issue for Iguodala if you look at his free throw percentage, I think this is probably a league wide issue, just a though

earl monroe

Incandescent- I like that

jsl165

True.

And how often — in January, especially — do you really want to play Curry 23-24 second half minutes?

With Crawford, Jax SHOULD be able to keep Curry under 36 mpg — until the playoffs. But, then, he SHOULD be able to use his best defender — Bogut — in Q4, too.

This guy seems to have started to get it about TO’s in his third year of coaching; maybe he can start getting it about rotations in the next few years . . .

nelliebiggestfan

this is not everything bogut said, very misleading to just put this part in a post. I linked the article with everything bogut said below.

jsl165

As ever, TSTTS.

jsl165

Sometimes nbf is so out of touch with reality, he can make his partner-troll, knick, look OK by comparison.

Believewhat

JJ Hickson was 1-4 from FTs but there coach saw beyond his FT woes and looked at advantage he provides in rebounding. Shaw >> Jax in yesterday’s game.

Believewhat

OK, why don’t you put the comment you perceived as -ve then ??

Dubs fan then and now

Couldn’t agree more about Bogut, he is our best defender and rebounder and yet he sits during crucial 4th quarter stretches?… even under 2 minutes?… looked like the ole’ defense was in full effect yesterday, but Denver shot like there was no tomorrow.

I can’t wait for Crawford to arrive and get orientated with this team. Having only 1 ball-handler is realling starting to wear on Steph and has made him vulnerable, as we saw last night.
Curious to see Crawford in to close out games. This would give us a more effective half-court offense that isn’t so predictable and based on Steph alone.
Excited that the front office is taking care of business!!!!

Believewhat

I can’t wait to see how Crawford plays and how coach uses him. I mean, like yesterday’s game, hard to win at whose expense Crawford would get mins ? Crawford will be 3rd best play maker behind Curry and Dre, but Barnes is as good a scorer as Crawford is. Crawford has alpha male attitude though, might work advantage to dubs. Like I said, interesting to watch how it will work out.

nelliebiggestfan

what a shock, fast break bloggers are acting fast trying to cover for bogut. Let’s see, the w’s move TD out, and right when they do that and bogut is asked about it bogut says that if players don’t show the right level of “professionalism” the team looks to move them out. Sure looks like bogut was talking about and ripping on TD, doesn’t it ? Sartre and Chris L sure seemed to think so.

Bryan Hsiao

That’s what I meant. Lee at C with Barnes dont offer enough resistance/deterrence to opponents in the paint

Believewhat

BTW, props to Lee. He came ready and determined and put Faried out of game.

Thurston Hunger

Which comes first the chicken (MJax) or the goose-like egg (Bogut)?

MJax has to get over his fear of a big man offense.

And Bogut has to demand at least one inside post up for ever three !@$! picks he is asked to set at the top of the key. Bogut needs to be more of a two way player and not just in the first quarter.

Lost in the game last night, D. Lee’s mastery of Faried. That used to be a tough battle. True the Nuggets were (even before this game, when they trounced OKC) hot on three point shooting, and sometimes you have to step back and say nice work (Nate’s step backs, Foye’s deep shots) but Denver also had 28 fast break points.

No surprise that they want to run, but that they got a quarter’s worth of points off fast breaks…that’s a team break down.

W’s did foul less than Denver, so a slight step in the right direction, but Steph got 3 PFs again quickly and the third was a really bad foul (that to a degree Lawson cleverly made happen, but still…)

coltraning

good points…but I do think 10 3s a game, which is what he has been doing the past 7 or so, is too many when you are shooting at 25-30% no matter how much attention you are drawing…

coltraning

could well be, except AI is shooting his best 3P% of his career. AI reminds me of Bruce Bowen that way, a better shooter from 3 than from the FT line…

mediagrunt

Troll comment. He could have been referring to TD, or he could have just been talking generally about the specter of being traded that hangs over a team that’s trying to reach the next level. Either way, it’s impossible to tell without any context. We don’t even know the question he was responding to.

http://feltbot.com/ feltbot

Adam’s prejudice against David Lee frequently gets in the way of his eyes, and this game was no exception. It was not Lee who made mistakes on those pick and roll coverage, it was Harrison Barnes.

Lee’s assignment was to blitz the ballhandler, which he did (and contrary to Adam’s view, does extremely well). His own man, JJ Hickson was left open intentionally. When Hickson catches the pass and drives the lane, it was Barnes’ assignment to rotate over and pick him up. On the first pick and roll, Barnes inexplicably had his head turned and completely blew the assignment. After a timeout and a tongue lashing, Barnes was ready and planted in the lane on the next PNR. And Hickson simply finished over him.

Check the tape.

Jeff

are you really putting the blame on Bogut here? is it his fault there are absolutely no plays drawn for him, and when plays are drawn it’s for steph or klay for a long 3. i blame the coaching or lack thereof. bogut can’t demand the ball when he sits 10 minutes in the 4th

Believewhat

Agree with you on too many 3PT attempts and posting regularly that dubs need to work on balance on offense. What I like about Curry is those hockey assists so he doesn’t dominate the ball too much but fewer 3PT attempts, I support that.

earl monroe

I think it requires more touch to shoot the mid range shots, Steph looks too strong on his shots plus it also seems like he is more off balance this year. Klay Thompson seems to be rushing his shot a bit.

nelliebiggestfan

it’s funny how adam and the commenters are aruguing that smallball lost. this game That isn’t true if you look at from Denver’s perspective, the nuggets played hickson, chandler, foye robinson and Lawson together and won, You can’t get much smaller than that. Even with Lee at center, the w’s were bigger at every position than Denver, and Denver won. Brian Shaw obviously thinks quite highly of smallball, even if most of you don’t

Believewhat

Unlike you, most here don’t care much about small ball or big ball. Current dubs team can go both ways, it is up to coach to use either approach as an advantage and our coach failed at it where coach Shaw succeeded. We could have won playing either way against Nuggets team if coach used right rotations.

Thurston Hunger

Got to take what they give you and they’re not giving Steph much in terms of his own shot. Go for 15 assists, and give the ball up earlier out of that double team.

Thurston Hunger

Love what Andre Iguodala brings to the W’s but him as a dribble and create point is not one of his many fortes to my eyes.