The early numbers don't look good for New Hampshire's incumbent Democratic House members.

Election Day is still far away, and few voters are paying attention to the races, but analysts said U.S. Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Annie Kuster are feeling the heat from disapproval of the Affordable Care Act.

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The WMUR Granite State Poll shows that if the election were held today, 45 percent of likely 1st District voters would choose Republican challenger Frank Guinta, compared to 39 percent for Shea-Porter.

In October, the same poll showed Guinta trailing by 16 points.

The survey of 584 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by cellphone and landline from Jan. 21-26 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

It includes a sample of 304 residents from the 1st Congressional District with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points and a sample of 280 residents form the 2nd Congressional District with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

"So Shea-Porter has some difficulty," said Andy Smith of the UNH Survey Center. "The 1st District has been a district that has bounced back and forth between Democrats and Republicans since 2006."

Shea-Porter holds a 10-point lead against the other Republican challenger, Dan Innis. The former dean of the UNH Business School remains unknown to 75 percent of voters.

In the 2nd District, Kuster holds head-to-head leads against two Republican challengers. She has a 4-point lead over Nashua's Gary Lambert and a 6-point edge over Salem's Marilinda Garcia, neither of whom have very good name recognition at this point.

But Smith said Kuster's problem lies in her lackluster favorability numbers, with just 30 percent seeing her in a favorable light and 32 percent having an unfavorable opinion of her.

"What's troubling for Kuster is she's under 40 percent, and as an incumbent, that is not where you want to be," Smith said. "Historically, if you're an incumbent and you're under 50 percent, you're likely to lose. She's under 40 percent, so she's in a difficult position."

Smith said the slide in favorability among Democrats is tied largely to the Affordable Care Act.

"This is something Republicans are going to run on at every level in the 2014 election," he said.

The Shea-Porter and Kuster campaigns said they didn't want to put much stock in a poll 10 months before Election Day.