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Any Super-30 upgrade will have to go through extensive IOC/FOC. The Rafale's arrive more or less ready to use with a lot of advanced capabilities already integrated even with their ISE's etc to be tested.

If sanctioned squadron strength (42 ??)for a two front war is the criteria for the 110 deal (6 squadrons), shoudnt navy's 57 plane deal (3 squadrons) be added to the mix that will go into war fighting. These planes sure can be deployed from air force bases in north and east when the need arises or if the situation is really desperate. This itself cuts down the requirement for the IAF to 3 squadrons. IMO scrap the 110 deal, go ahead with the naval tender, and the winner of naval competition should be given deal for IAF's remaining 3 sqd (non-naval version, already evaluated). Since the deal size exceeds 100 , production can be set up here. This is also win-win from engine POV since if Rafale wins, safran is already assisting with kaveri and if hornet wins, GE can set up shop for 414 that goes into tejas.

Austin wrote:The next competition for 108 fighter IMHO would be 3 way contest between Gripen , F-16 and Mig-35 .....The Eurofighter , Su-35 and Rafale are just there for RFP sake.

Grifen - in what shape or form is is better than the LCA? F-16 - no way will the IAF accept it specially after the recent clash with Pakistan despite LM re-naming it F21!!Mig 35 - the IAF has also had it's fill of maintenance intensive Russian aircraft so they will say nyet to that. Besides, renaming the Mig 29 the Mig 35 is like LM renaming the F16 as the F21.

And that brings us back to the Rafale and the IAF will want them in whatever numbers the budget can afford.

Gripen : Logistics commonality with LCA Mk1/Mk2 , Single Engine Fighter , Low on TCO and OPEX ( but uses American Engine and perhaps many other component , Prone to US Sanctions at any time like Tejas ) , Full TOT Possible F-16: Medium Weight Fighter , Proven Frame and Reliability , But need to build total new Logistics for it and the US Weapons , Integration of Indian Weapons doubtful , Single Engine means low OPEX cost , US Fighter Prone to US sanctions any time in its life , Full TOT Doubtful Mig-35 : Like IN Mig-29K and IAF 29UPG , Exisitng logistic for Aircraft , Engine and Weapon exist , Integration of 3rd party/Indian weapon possible , Full TOT Possible. But being twin engine will be on the higher side of OPEX.

My choice will be Gripen , Mig-35 and F-16 in that order , Sweden is not a stragic partner , So choice is between F-21/16 verus Mig-35.

Karan , More Rafale is not possible .......it has high cost and since 2014 till date Cost will just rise due to Mil Inflation.

We need 108 fighter beyond the 250 Mk1/M2 Tejas IAF is commited too.

Mk2 is no where in horizon yet and Mk1 production is yet to start , 108 fighter will build the Time Lag of Tejas and additional 5-6 Squadron going out by 2025

Austin wrote:Karan , More Rafale is not possible .......it has high cost and since 2014 till date Cost will just rise due to Mil Inflation.

Why not, everything that you cited above in terms of logistics compatibility, OPEX etc apply fully to Rafales, since we operate Mirage 2000s and now will be operating Rafales and we already have the infrastructure built up. Follow on orders would also be easier than a whole new tender.

Of the current spend on Rafale there are huge investments in modifying airbases, training simulator etc. These will be amortised over subsequent purchases. Cost of aircraft and weapons will naturally remain.

Austin wrote:Karan , More Rafale is not possible .......it has high cost and since 2014 till date Cost will just rise due to Mil Inflation.

Why not, everything that you cited above in terms of logistics compatibility, OPEX etc apply fully to Rafales, since we operate Mirage 2000s and now will be operating Rafales and we already have the infrastructure built up. Follow on orders would also be easier than a whole new tender.

Because the new 108 aircraft comes with its own set of rules incuding TOT ..... Rafale logisicts we purchased is just to upkeep the aircraft for day to day ops .......No Lic Prod or TOT done which takes a much bigger amount , These Rafale will have to be send to france for any thing more than basic level of repair or replacing components

Parrikar is on record stating they dont have the money for additional purchase .

Accept it Rafale is an Expensive Bird , The most expensive purchase til date and we wont see more than 36 purchase for SFC

the airbase construction of several hundred superhard HAS able to shrug off direct hits from 2000lb bombs is being funded under another IAF project.some of the PAF bases got it from 60s onward due to CENTO type free funding.

each may be able to house several fighter (2-3) and have climate control if we take the al udeid/thumrait type bases in middle east as a template.assets worth billions of dollars like phalcons, netras, 4+ gen fighters cannot be left to the elements even in peacetime - their loads of electronics need a dust free and cool dry temperature for best durability.

at present atleast we have progressed to roofed sheds for regular day to day flightline ops, which protects from rain and would be 10C cooler than in the sun.

ATC improvements in each IAF base had been funded a decade ago and should be all complete now.

Austin wrote:Because the new 108 aircraft comes with its own set of rules incuding TOT ..... Rafale logisicts we purchased is just to upkeep the aircraft for day to day ops .......No Lic Prod or TOT done which takes a much bigger amount , These Rafale will have to be send to france for any thing more than basic level of repair or replacing components

I would like to see your sources for that. As far as I understand, the present deal mandates minimum availability thresholds and these are inbuilt.

Austin wrote:Parrikar is on record stating they dont have the money for additional purchase .

Accept it Rafale is an Expensive Bird , The most expensive purchase til date and we wont see more than 36 purchase for SFC

Once again there's no evidence that these Rafales are for SFC, exclusively. Rafale is expensive, but the other birds you listed do not come cheap either and the prices have been discussed in length here.

If you feel other jets make more financial sense, please post your figures here.

Austin wrote:Gripen : Logistics commonality with LCA Mk1/Mk2 , Single Engine Fighter , Low on TCO and OPEX ( but uses American Engine and perhaps many other component , Prone to US Sanctions at any time like Tejas ) , Full TOT Possible

Full TOT from who, exactly? How much does SAAB even own?

F-16: Medium Weight Fighter , Proven Frame and Reliability , But need to build total new Logistics for it and the US Weapons , Integration of Indian Weapons doubtful , Single Engine means low OPEX cost , US Fighter Prone to US sanctions any time in its life , Full TOT Doubtful Mig-35 : Like IN Mig-29K and IAF 29UPG , Exisitng logistic for Aircraft , Engine and Weapon exist , Integration of 3rd party/Indian weapon possible , Full TOT Possible. But being twin engine will be on the higher side of OPEX.

My choice will be Gripen , Mig-35 and F-16 in that order , Sweden is not a stragic partner , So choice is between F-21/16 verus Mig-35.

These are your choices..for all we know IAF may even go for more Rafale or F/A-18 E/F or this or that causing yet another cost issue linked boondoggle. They tend to take the GOI at its word and every GOI always says money is there.

Karan , More Rafale is not possible .......it has high cost and since 2014 till date Cost will just rise due to Mil Inflation. We need 108 fighter beyond the 250 Mk1/M2 Tejas IAF is commited too. Mk2 is no where in horizon yet and Mk1 production is yet to start , 108 fighter will build the Time Lag of Tejas and additional 5-6 Squadron going out by 2025

36 Rafale + 30 Su-30 MKI + Su-30 upgrade + 21 MiG-29 + 20 more LCA Mk1A = ~100 airframes at a fraction of the cost of 100 MMRCA with license assembly in India and less of a logistics hassle, which would escalate lifecycle costs even more.

Karan M wrote:If Rafales are for SFC alone, why are we buying SCALP with them? That alone should show IAF regards them as multirole assets.

Prime Minister has himself stated in public that if Rafales were there with IAF, then much more could have been achieved wrt retaliatory strikes. IAF or for that matter no other airforce would invest millions on pilots and billions on platforms plus maintenance/upgrade costs for missions that might never be ordered, not even war time. Rafale is a multi role aircraft all the way and not just meant for sfc.

^Ditto. I dont know why Austin is sticking to this SFC magic story, as if that prevents them from being used for other necessary roles. The Mirage 2000s were earmarked for our noocoolear detergent, yet they did proper dhulai of Pakistanis at Kargil.

india does not envisage a force de frappe kind of structure where british V-bombers and france MirageIV and the Mirage2000-N exclusively practised the manned n-delivery role.

there is simply no need vs TSP and the cheen major cities are way out of reach. the only one in reach of a manned fighter without refueling is probably kunming the capital of yunnan. both chengdu and chongqing are imo outa reach.

as a self escorting DPSA with 2x the payload and Nx the survivability of jaguar, sure rafale has a role for the low level sneaky missions.

Karan M wrote:^Ditto. I dont know why Austin is sticking to this SFC magic story, as if that prevents them from being used for other necessary roles. The Mirage 2000s were earmarked for our noocoolear detergent, yet they did proper dhulai of Pakistanis at Kargil.

I do not know how people with more experience than I overlook the fact that IAF wants Rafale. Period.It doesn't want F/A-18, it doesn't want Gripen and it sure as hell doesn't want the solah.They wanted M2k initially and now they want it's next avatar. The changes made in ASQR multiple times to keep Rafale in competition should make this point clear.It doesn't matter how much the others try to entice, they had their mind made from the get go and just acting on it. All of this MMRCA tamasha is to satisfy some pencil pushers.

Austin wrote:F-16: Medium Weight Fighter , Proven Frame and Reliability , But need to build total new Logistics for it and the US Weapons , Integration of Indian Weapons doubtful , Single Engine means low OPEX cost , US Fighter Prone to US sanctions any time in its life, Full TOT Doubtful

Austin wrote:Because the new 108 aircraft comes with its own set of rules incuding TOT ..... Rafale logisicts we purchased is just to upkeep the aircraft for day to day ops .......No Lic Prod or TOT done which takes a much bigger amount , These Rafale will have to be send to france for any thing more than basic level of repair or replacing components

Parrikar is on record stating they dont have the money for additional purchase .

Accept it Rafale is an Expensive Bird , The most expensive purchase til date and we wont see more than 36 purchase for SFC

No, No and No

1) I do not understand what you mean by day-to-day ops. Please explain! That term makes no sense whatsoever!

2) License Production of the Rafale is not going to happen. Screwdrivergiri from CKD or SKD kits possible, but even that is highly unlikely. Just get the birds in fly away condition from France. Best option. I am not even going to get into ToT of the Rafale. Waste of time discussion. But I will let you on a little secret (I am copying this line from another member in a previous discussion in this very thread) - our true and honest and philanthropic friends from La France will not give us any ToT on the Rafale!

3) Again incorrect on the issue of the Rafale being sent back to France for major upgrades. The Rafales that are arriving in India this year are not up to full Indian-spec of the F3R. Those components are still being tested on the single Indian Rafale currently flying in France. The serial number of that Indian Rafale is RB008. That particular bird will be delivered to India only in April 2022 after all testing and certification is complete. The remaining 35 Rafales will then be upgraded to the standard of the RB088 in India itself and will be complete by Sep 2022. Mainly software updates, but a future F4 upgrade can be done in India. If we can do M2K-5 upgrade in India, then why not a future Rafale upgrade?

4) If Parrikar said that they do not have money for additional purchases of fighter aircraft, then why even hold a competition for 110 fighters?

The F-16 and Gripen cost advantage in terms of manufacturing cost (vis-a-vis the Rafale) is more than offset by the fact that the Rafale has $2 Billion in sunk cost when it comes to India specific changes, plus more $$ when one factors in the capacity for O&S that will be built up to support the initial batch. Moving beyond the only cost advantages these aircraft will have is going to be on O&S cost which is imho also more than offset by the higher capability offered by the Rafale.

Like Rakesh, I too don't believe that there is any advantage of building the MMRCA 2.0 in India under MII given the MK1A and MWF in the pipeline. If those werent an option it could have been beneficial as further batches could have been built over time. Politically, 36 Rafale follow on order may be more feasable than trying to negotiate a mega 100+ aircraft MII competition which will likely run into the tens of Billions of $$.

Rakesh , Day to Day would mean to keep the aircraft going and do the first level of maintanence on the aircraft , Replace Spares ,Components , HUMS etc , if say some part or engine fails then they have have to send that to france to repair it if replacing them with spares does not help. You can do that for a small fleet for 30 odd fighter like we used to do even for Mirages during early days only Later MOD spent money to build MRO facility for M2K in India for a large fleet of 100 plus fighters you will have to spend more to build these infra.

Without TOT/Lic prod the import will be expensive and so will be regular maintenance , You have to import all the spares you cant make it here by SME or others in the game not even 5 % ,You are totally dependent on imports

The 110 Fighter is for a cheaper option , Parrikar clearly stated that MOD cannot afford more than 36 Rafale and the bare minimum needed was purchased for the rest they will have to opt for cost effective option within budget and following DPP rules including TOT/Lic production etc

"We are not buying the rest. We are only buying the direct 36," Parrikar told PTI when asked what will happen to rest of the requirement.He said that the UPA deal for 126 Rafales was way too expensive and it would have hampered other modernisation plans of the Indian military.

The deal would have required around Rs 1.3 lakh crore over a period of 10-11 years, he added.

"Would there be any money for any other work?" he asked. "I also feel like having a BMW and Mercedes ..

Read more at://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47489208.cms?from=mdr&utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

So to buy 126 Rafale India would need 1.3 Lakh crore over 10-11 years according to Parrikar like roughly 21-22 USD Billion.

By 2020 that cost will still go up due to Military Inflation

Parrikar statement was referencing the deal done in 2014 referencing the cost analysis done by MOD during that period , Lets assume that includes the TOT cost , Lic production and what ever was specified by DPP.

If one does the math each aircraft would cost the exchequer $175 million

Why would you need to send the entire engine to France if a module fails? This is not how engines are maintained or serviced out in the fleet especially for an aircraft designed to have quick turn around times on a carrier. You will swap out an engine and turn the aircraft around, perform an inspection of the faulty engine and then replace the required module (s), put it on a test stand and certify it ready to go back on the aircraft. For a large program (100+ program) you will likely have one or two depots where you will send the module but if it is a small fleet they can be co-located with the one or two bases supporting the aircraft for quick turnaround.

Austin wrote:So to buy 126 Rafale India would need 1.3 Lakh crore over 10-11 years according to Parrikar like roughly 21-22 USD Billion.

By 2020 that cost will still go up due to Military Inflation

Parrikar statement was referencing the deal done in 2014 referencing the cost analysis done by MOD during that period , Lets assume that includes the TOT cost , Lic production and what ever was specified by DPP.

If one does the math each aircraft would cost the exchequer $175 million

Yes if one looks to buy 126 Rafale's as part of MII. The recurring and non recurring costs would be quite substantial. This would not be the case if the MOD buys 36 or so aircraft off the shelf from the Dassault line. Here, the sunk $2 Billion customization cost would be non-recurring and a faster delivery rate (now to 26 aircraft a year) would likely give Dassault and its suppliers more room to offer discounts vs where they were earlier when production was about 1 a month.

Still, it will likely cost $100-$120 Million plus weapons but for an order of 36 you are looking at a $4-$4.5 Billion order plus weapons which is a fraction of the $20-25 Billion projected for a mega deal. The MOD can bake in options for an additional 12-24 aircraft and then decide in the latter half of the 2020's whether more are needed depending upon how the Su-30MKI upgrades turn out, and the status of the MWF production and design maturity. Such a move should be politically and economically more palatable.

For tactical fighters no future MII deal should be negotiated unless the orders are at least on par with the MKI production lots. Small (sub-100) orders are economically prohibitive for most barring a very few (Japan, Italy etc...) they offer no real tech transfer benefits..

Austin wrote:So to buy 126 Rafale India would need 1.3 Lakh crore over 10-11 years according to Parrikar like roughly 21-22 USD Billion.

By 2020 that cost will still go up due to Military Inflation

Parrikar statement was referencing the deal done in 2014 referencing the cost analysis done by MOD during that period , Lets assume that includes the TOT cost , Lic production and what ever was specified by DPP.

If one does the math each aircraft would cost the exchequer $175 million

Yes if one looks to buy 126 Rafale's as part of MII. The recurring and non recurring costs would be quite substantial. This would not be the case if the MOD buys 36 or so aircraft off the shelf from the Dassault line. Here, the sunk $2 Billion customization cost would be non-recurring and a faster delivery rate (now to 26 aircraft a year) would likely give Dassault and its suppliers more room to offer discounts vs where they were earlier when production was about 1 a month.

Still, it will likely cost $100-$120 Million plus weapons but for an order of 36 you are looking at a $4-$4.5 Billion order plus weapons which is a fraction of the $20-25 Billion projected for a mega deal. The MOD can bake in options for an additional 12-24 aircraft and then decide in the latter half of the 2020's whether more are needed depending upon how the Su-30MKI upgrades turn out, and the status of the MWF production and design maturity. Such a move should be politically and economically more palatable.

For tactical fighters no future MII deal should be negotiated unless the orders are at least on par with the MKI production lots. Small (sub-100) orders are economically prohibitive for most barring a very few (Japan, Italy etc...) they offer no real tech transfer benefits..

There is no basis or any offical proposal to buy additional 36 or 50 or 20 or similar numbers for IAF to top up existing 36 Rafale Deal

The next deal is for 108 Fighters and it has to comply with DPP that includes Lic Prod and TOT etc , Atleast the RFI has been sent on it lets see how this goes.

Right, and some of us are arguing that this be scrapped and a different path chosen instead. I don't think I or anyone else here ever said that there is an official proposal for 36 aircraft. The MMRCA 2.0 has not reached RFP stage which means it is far from ready to actually move into a formal program of record. Post elections, irrespective of who comes to power at the center, there is plenty of wiggle room for change given they are at a very early stage. Looking at the F-21 or the Gripen-E, you are still looking at a $15-20 Billion program for 100 plus aircraft..there is nothing magical about these aircraft that makes them affordable under a similar MII framework. The recurring production cost will be less compared to Rafale, but the non recurring portion will be just as expensive under most scenarios barring very few .

Ofcourse it can also get cancelled even post RFP stage but right now that the only official proposal and GOI has said buying 36 Rafale was an exception for many reason including cost and there was no proposal to buy more than that.

Austin wrote:Ofcourse it can also get cancelled even post RFP stage but right now that the only official proposal and GOI has said buying 36 Rafale was an exception for many reason including cost and there was no proposal to buy more than that.

The GOI has never said that were was no proposal to not buy any more Rafales.

You do realize that the Rafale is taking part in the present contest for 110 fighters?

Austin wrote:Ofcourse it can also get cancelled even post RFP stage but right now that the only official proposal and GOI has said buying 36 Rafale was an exception for many reason including cost and there was no proposal to buy more than that.

The GOI has never said that were was no proposal to not buy any more Rafales.

You do realize that the Rafale is taking part in the present contest for 110 fighters?

Yes but so is Eurofghter , Su-35 and even F-18 .

Like I said short of any change in GOI policy I dont see we buying additonal Rafale , They would constitute a small fleet of Aircraft for Nuclear/Strategic Detterent Role ...Much like Mirages are today.

The 110 figter competition will be limited to IMO Gripen , Mig-35 and F-16/21 and who ever offers the the lowest TCO with best TOT will win the Day.

Likely the fight is between Gripen and Mig-35 ......Unless US gives a blanket exemption to India from CAATSA that wont be applied now or under future by President/Congress.

Since its a Law it can be applied any time either by POTUS , US Congress would want a wiver all the time that we are buying less Russian product more US Stuff much like Pressler Ammendment or by Deep State that can over ride both.

Rakesh wrote:I think Austin got caught up in the recent CAG report, which stated that the MiG-35 was the only contender - in MMRCA 1.0 - to have met all the ASQRs

Yes Mig-35 would be a strong contender along with Gripen , Both has existing logistics established or will be established for Gripen via Tejas and SAAB as promised full TOT much like Russians did.

Likely Gripen has the lowest CPFH and being single engine it would be lower on Maintenace but Sweden is not a strategic partner so even if Technically it Wins perhaps hands down , Politically it may loose.

Austin wrote:Ofcourse it can also get cancelled even post RFP stage but right now that the only official proposal and GOI has said buying 36 Rafale was an exception for many reason including cost and there was no proposal to buy more than that.

The GOI has never said that were was no proposal to not buy any more Rafales.

You do realize that the Rafale is taking part in the present contest for 110 fighters?

Which makes all the more sense to expedite the Rafale for 110 ASAP. The problem will be what is Dassault's production capabilities? The Rafale seems like a very specialized production similar to expensive European chocolates, fine liquors, and sports cars. All made and inspected repeatedly to ensure quality, but at a very very slow rate. It seems the production is far slower than the Mirage 2000 production. Even made in India still requires parts from France, which will be painfully slow.

The Pakis will be picking up a bunch of 2nd hand F-16s from the ME and other places once the F-35 starts coming out in significant numbers in the next 2-3 years.