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South Asia Investor Review is focused on reporting, analyzing and discussing the economy and the financial markets of countries in South Asia, including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. For investors looking to invest in emerging markets beyond BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), this blog is designed to help international investors looking to learn about investing in South Asia with focus on Pakistan. Riaz has another blog called Haq's Musings at http://www.riazhaq.com

Pakistan Economy Nears Trillion Dollar PPP GDP Mark in 2015

Pakistan's PPP GDP is nearing trillion US$ mark in 2015, according to the latest figures available from the International Monetary Fund.

Nominal GDP based on current exchange rates is reported at $270 billion in 2015, up from $246 billion in 2014, an increase of $24 Billion. Pakistan's per capita nominal GDP for 2015 is $1,427.085, up from $1,325.790 in 2014.

The nation's PPP GDP increased from $884 billion to $930 billion, an increase of $46 billion. Pakistan per capita PPP GDP is $4,902 for 2015, up from $4,749 in 2014, according to the IMF.

A dramatic decline in terrorist violence in Pakistan since the launch of Pakistan Army's Operation Zarb-e-Azb and a big drop in international oil prices have helped drive the country's economic recovery in recent months.

Among the clearest signs of recovery are increasing auto sales, growing smartphone purchases and cement consumption.

Pakistan auto industry is booming. Toyota, Suzuki and Honda factories are working around the clock in the southern port city of Karachi and eastern city of Lahore -- yet customers can still wait for up to four months for new vehicles to be delivered, according to media reports. At the same time, increased construction activity is visible everywhere in the country. First 5 months of the current fiscal year have seen sales of 93,570 cars, an increase of 66% over the same period last year.

Domestic cement sales have jumped by a phenomenal 16.89% to 4.29 million tons during July and August 2015 from 3.67 million tons shipped in the same period last year.

After its September meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said the rise in fixed investment financing in the energy generation and distribution, chemicals and services sectors signal possible increase in their productive activity in coming months. “The implementation of infrastructure development and energy projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) will further enhance the improving investment environment. Therefore, there is anticipation of higher economic activity in 2015-16, which is expected to boost credit uptake,” it said.

Even as its economy recovers, it is unfortunate that Pakistan continues to lag behind its South Asian neighbors in human development. The latest 2015 human development report from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) shows that the country's leadership is continuing fail its people, particularly the youth, by its lack of focus and underinvestment in education and health care sectors. There can be no sustainable economic growth without investing in human development. It requires immediate attention.

It has been barely seven months since Haier Pakistan further diversified its portfolio and entered the saturated cellphone market, but the overwhelming response has forced the company to pursue its expansion plans more aggressively.

Haier is the first company that is establishing a mobile phone assembly plant near Lahore with an investment of $5 million. The plant, which is likely to be completed by the end of the first quarter of 2016, will have the capacity to assemble 1.5 million cellphones annually.

“It takes years for a mobile company to diversify in such a competitive market, but we did it quite brilliantly. The coming year will be exciting for us as by March we will be launching the mobile assembly plant in Pakistan as per our commitment to bringing in technology and making our products more competitive,” said Zeshan Qureshi, Chief Executive Officer of Haier Mobiles, in an interview with The Express Tribune.

For Qureshi, the company’s product range has expanded to 27 in a short span, as it was only seven at the beginning. By March 2016, the company is hopeful that it will be able to further diversify the product range to around 35.

“The quality of our products is being appreciated in the market; this is due to our strong research and development wing that helped in selling over 0.5 million units in about seven months,” he added.

The price range is also flexible. Mobile sets are available at as low as $15 and go up to $300. The company has introduced three mobile categories for low, medium and high-end customers.

“We are about to launch a high-end product, V-6, which will be available at $450, the highest so far for our company,” Qureshi said.

He was of the view that any mobile brand should have a portfolio of 25 products in order to penetrate 100% in the market.

“At present, we have 80% penetration in Pakistan’s mobile market via our network of 18,000 distributors. There might be few areas remaining but we hope to reach those soon.”The company has also introduced theft and accidental insurance for all its products through its 29 customer care centres.

Journey in Pakistan

Haier is operating in Pakistan’s market for 15 years and has established itself as a reliable name in household products. According to the company, every household has at least one appliance of Haier.

“The new era is of internet of things and every electronic appliance manufactured these days has these features. In order to connect these appliances with internet, we need a mobile or a tablet. And we have introduced mobiles to connect with the world,” he said.

Qureshi cited taxation and grey trafficking as areas that were affecting the brands. However, he said, it could be curbed if brands started investing in local markets as Haier was doing.

“We can only force the government to create an eco-system for mobile companies if they have strong presence and contribute reasonably to the economy, technology transfer and job creation.”

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative, a planned $46 billion network of transport links, appears to be gaining momentum, which is good news for Pakistan's sluggish economy. Still, security and funding issues remain an obstacle.

The CPEC project, agreed to by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang and his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif, in May 2013, would connect the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar in southwestern Pakistan with the Xinjiang region of northwestern China upon its scheduled completion in three years.

The corridor is part of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative to establish a network of transcontinental land and sea routes. China views Gwadar as a potential hub for trade with the Middle East, Africa and Europe. The project is also aimed at promoting development in Xinjiang and Tibet.

Gwadar, a deep-sea port that is widely expected to become Pakistan's biggest, started container ship operations in May.

Claude Rakisits, senior fellow at the South Asia Center of U.S. think tank the Atlantic Council, said the project could be good for Afghanistan, too. "If peace eventually does come to Afghanistan, CPEC will help that country integrate more closely economically with Pakistan and Iran," he said. "And, of course, it will provide direct access to western China and its hinterland ... a vast and fast-growing region in need of development."

Added Rakisits, "Needless to say, with better roads and railroads, the huge Pakistan market will be easier to access for foreign investors."

According to estimates from the petroleum ministry, gasoline demand is expected to grow by 15% year on year to 5.3 million mt (around 39.5 million barrels) in fiscal 2015-2016 (July-June) led by low prices, non-availability of compressed natural gas and a rise in auto sales.

In 2016-17, demand is expected to rise 11% on the year to 5.9 million mt, government officials estimated.

"To compete effectively in the market and ensure timely product availability, PSO has to import more Mogas in the coming years in view of the expected increase in demand," Sheikh Imranul Haq, managing director of Pakistan State Oil, told Platts Wednesday. PSO is the largest oil marketing and distribution company in Pakistan.

"Currently we are importing on average three cargoes per month, but this can go up to four or five by next year," he said.

Of the 4.6 million mt of gasoline Pakistan consumed in the fiscal year ended June 2015, only 1.5 million mt was produced domestically, with the remaining 3.1 million mt, or 67% imported, according to ministry data.

Though Pakistan is expected to see an increase in domestic gasoline output next year, this will not be enough to compensate for the rise in demand.

The 46,000 b/d Attock Refinery will lift its gasoline production from 30,000 mt/month to 50,000 mt/month by March 2016, while the 50,000 b/d Pakistan Refinery has already doubled gasoline production from 11,000 mt/month to 22,000 mt/month.

"Since refinery production is not expected to increase drastically, PSO will have to rely on imports," Haq said.

KEY FACTORS

Lack of availability of CNG led by stagnant domestic production and delays in LNG imports has been a major factor driving up gasoline demand in the country.

Natural gas production in the country has been at standstill at 4.2 Bcf/day over the past two years, while demand has risen substantially.

The CNG sector needs around 450,000 Mcf/d of gas to meet demand, but owing to lack of gas availability and diversion to residential customers, gas supply to CNG pumps ranges between 380,000 Mcf/day to 400,000 Mcf/day, Ghaiss Abdullah Paracha, chairman of the All Pakistan CNG Association said by telephone from Islamabad.

The retail price of gasoline has fallen to Pakistan Rupees 77 ($0.6)/liter from Rupees 114/liter in November 2014 following the sharp drop in international crude oil prices.

"The surge in oil consumption hinged around the global crude price. However, the trend and international developments like OPEC maintaining the crude oil supplies indicate that low domestic price would stay for long," said Nauman Ahmad Khan, head of research at Karachi-based brokerage house Foundation Securities, adding that rising vehicle sales would also help consumption over coming years.

During the fiscal year ended June 30, 2015, car sales recorded growth of 31% year on year to 179,953 units. And in the four months to October 2015, sales shot up 67% year on year, said Muhammad Tahir Saeed, senior research analyst at Karachi based brokerage house Topline Securities.

LNG AN OPTION

Some industry officials, however, said that the growth in petroleum products demand might not be as much as estimated by the government as CNG pump owners have successfully lobbied the government to import LNG independently, instead of depending on the state run companies Pakistan State Oil and Sui Northern Gas.

Pakistan's overall oil products demand in 2014-15 period was 22 million mt, up from 21.44 million mt the previous year. In the year ending June 30, 2016, consumption is expected to rise to 22.8 million mt, while in the year ending June 2017 it would rise to 23.5 million mt, government officials estimated.

Chinese trucks may become a more common sight than Japanese rigs on Pakistan’s roads as rising infrastructure investment creates demand for cheap and durable commercial vehicles.To benefit from their expected growth in popularity, Karachi-based Ghandhara Nissan Ltd. began assembling China’s Dongfeng trucks in 2013, in addition to Japan’s UD brand. Ghandhara forecasts its Chinese truck sales will more than double to about 200 units in the year ending June and surpass UD deliveries in the next two years, according to Muazzam Pervaiz Malik, senior executive director for marketing at the company.

“Initially they were scared about the quality, but China has improved,” Malik said in an interview. “With the China-Pakistan economic corridor, more dams and motorways, we expect truck demand to grow.”South Asia’s second-largest economy is forecast to grow at the fastest pace since 2008 and is seen as a beneficiary of the $45 billion that China has pledged in infrastructure investment to more tightly link its economy with Europe through central and western Asia.The spending may help drive a 50 percent increase in truck sales to as many as 7,000 units a year by 2020, according to Ghandhara’s estimates. The company’s revenue will rise about 10 percent in the year ending June 30, buoyed by higher Dongfeng sales, Malik said.Ghandhara’s stock has surged more than threefold this year for the biggest gain among auto retailers globally, buoyed by the truck demand and expectations that it will begin producing passenger cars in 2017. The shares dropped 4.7 percent to 181.4 rupees in Karachi yesterday.The local newspaper Dawn reported in August that Ghandhara plans to start assembling Nissan Motor Co.’s Datsun cars in 2017. Ghandhara declined to comment on its future plans, while Nissan said no decision has been made on production in Pakistan.

First, Growth: As per the report the real GDP growth rate for the FY 2015 was 4.20% with 2.90% coming from agriculture, 3.60% from industry and 5.0% from services. Clearly this 4.2 falls short of 5.20%, the benchmarked target, but then from government’s perspective its defence could be that this is a better showing than in FY 2013 — when they took over — and that it has performed well to put the growth back on an upward trajectory. In FY 2013 we witnessed a fall in growth to 3.70% from 3.80%, but thereon it has been rising, 4.0% in FY 2014 and now 4.20% in FY 2015. A reasonable argument, but the problem is that when we dissect this growth performance, a rather troubling picture emerges. Pakistan, a country with high mix of existing employable youth and a population growth rate that requires more than 200,000 new jobs a year, essentially needs to grow in sectors that optimise job creation, meaning industry and agriculture.

However, these are the very sectors where we either saw stagnation or a decline: growth rates in industry fell to 3.60% from 4.50% (a staggering 3.20% off the target) and in agriculture a marginal movement of +0.20% (but 0.40% off the target). Even worse, the decline in industry came largely on the back of falling exports (not ‘stagnating’ exports as being claimed in the report) and that too in textiles – the most labour intensive industrial sector. Exports from developing economies, as we know, basically capitalise on cheap labour to gain competitive edge in international markets, in turn directly touching the lives of low-wage labourers and serving the twin purpose of mass employment generation cum distribution of income to low-income strata.

The simultaneous erosion of industry and exports depicts a dangerous trend, which if not quickly arrested can lead to serious social unrest. Add to this the dismal performance of agriculture in 2015 — the largest employment providing sector — and the picture becomes even gloomier. The mess-up in agriculture actually makes up for a perfect storybook tale of corruption, incompetence and neglect, qualifying for criminal investigation. A story of greed of seed and insecticide/pesticide mafia resulting in devastating outcomes where nearly one third of Punjab’s cotton crop stands wiped out and its quality badly bruised, once robust fields of sugarcane now reduced to low yield harvests, and the image of legendary Pakistani Basmati rice seriously dented.

Second, Financial Industry, Debt and Credit-to-GDP ratio: This dodgy saga of underlying growth does not end at the poor showing of industry and agriculture, but also goes on to manifest itself in the services sector, which presumably in 2015 has been the economy’s engine of growth. The services sector grew by 5%, up 0.60% from the previous year and with it taking the overall growth to a respectable level. But then again, scratch the surface and beneath it one finds the malaise of our banking and financial industry. Its growth mainly came on the back of governmental services, finance (debt) to the government, and insurance that also primarily catered to governmental borrowings. Nearly 1.90% out of the 4.20% GDP growth or 75% of the service-sector’s growth can be attributed merely to the government. And this policy of high state loans from commercial bank — in the process crowding-out the private sector — by itself is very counterproductive since in essence capital flows away from the efficient user (private sector) to the less efficient user (government). Moreover, it retards investment, employment generation, and creates an incremental debt in the economy, which otherwise could have been avoided.

China FAW Group Corp., a Chinese partner of Volkswagen AG, plans to start assembling cars in Pakistan to tap growing demand as measures to curb terrorism boost growth in the South Asian economy.

The company seeks to sell 10,000 vehicles, including vans, cars and pickups, in 2018 after it begins local assembly of the V2 hatchback at the end of this year, Hilal Khan Afridi, chief executive officer of Al-Haj FAW Motors Pvt., said in an interview in Karachi. Al-Haj FAW is the Chinese group’s local venture and began selling imported V2’s in January last year.FAW will be the first carmaker in a decade to start assembling in Pakistan, where the economy is set to grow at the fastest pace since 2008 as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s government tackles power shortages and terrorism. China’s President Xi Jinping has also pledged to invest $45 billion in the country, boosting the outlook for expansion.“Initially we had a lot of difficulty to convince them to help us with technical expertise,” said Afridi. “Now that the Chinese market has slowed down they have increased their interest in international markets. It’s a good sign for us.”

Chinese spending on infrastructure may help Karachi-based Ghandhara Nissan Ltd. double sales of Chinese Dongfeng trucks. Al-Haj FAW sold about 3,400 vans and pickups along with 535 locally assembled trucks last year. The company plans to invest 1 billion rupees ($9.5 million) to assemble cars in Pakistan.

“Things are looking up for the auto industry,” says Ahmed Hanif Lakhani, analyst at Karachi-based Arif Habib Ltd. “The economy is growing and consumer demand is rising with low interest rates making leasing more feasible.”Pakistan’s economy is estimated to expand 5.5 percent in the year to June, according to the Ministry of Finance. Car sales in the nation increased 52 percent to 15,724 units in November from a year earlier, according to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association.

Sales of locally assembled cars jumped 44.85 per cent to 107,907 units during the first seven months (July-January) of 2015-16 from 74,497 units in the same period last year, Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association data showed on Wednesday.

In 1,300cc and above, buyers lifted overall 49,168 units as compared to 40,388 a year ago. Toyota Corolla led the sales with 33,225 units as compared to 26,593 in July-January 2014-15. Combined sales of Honda Civic and City increased to 13,625 as compared to 11,799 units last year. Suzuki Swift sales inclined to 2,318 from 1,974 units.

Total sales of 1,000cc cars swelled to 14,145 from 9,973 units in the same period last year. Suzuki Cultus share was 8,976 as compared to 7,747 units, followed by Wagon R — 5,165 units from 2,180 a year ago.

Suzuki Mehran and Bolan sales went up to 22,292 and 22,302 from 16,164 and 7,972 units, respectively.

Total vehicle sales, including LCVs, vans and jeeps, registered a 57pc growth to 133,437 units during the period under review as compared to 85,135 a year ago.

Mohammad Tahir Saeed of Topline Securities attributed the sector’s performance to the rise in auto financing, Punjab Taxi Scheme and improving law and order situation.

He predicted the local car sales to grow 15pc (206,777 units) in FY16 due to expected completion of taxi scheme in February 2016 and decline in Civic sales volume in anticipation of new model by mid-2016.

He said that the delivery time of new Toyota Corolla was still hovering between two to four months.

Tractor sales, however, posted a 40pc year-on-year decline to 14,727 units due to the delay in provincial tractor subsidy schemes.

Punjab and Sindh governments, in budget FY16, announced a subsidy of 25,000-29,000 tractors but, as per media reports, Punjab has suspended its scheme due to lack of funds.

Cement dispatches in the first seven months (Jul 2015 to Jan 2016) of the current fiscal 2015-16 increased by 6.38% to 21.3 million tons compared to 20.022 million tons during the same period of last fiscal, according to latest data released by the All Pakistan Cement Manufacturers Association (APCMA).

This positive overall growth is attributed to the robust increase in domestic dispatches during this period. Local dispatches increased by 15.57% to 17.9 million tons from 15.5 million tons in the period under review.

On the contrary, exports declined to 3.4 million tons from July 2015 to January 2016 against 4.5 million tons from July 2014 to January 2015, down 24.98%.

Factories located in the north of the country dispatched 14.7 million tons in local markets from Jul 15 to Jan 16 against 12.9 million tons during the same period of last fiscal year, depicting a growth of 14.12%.

South-based factories registered a higher growth of 23% in domestic dispatches from July 15 to Jan 16 as their local sales recorded in this period were 3.12 million tons against 2.53 million tons during the same period last year.

In exports, north-based mills registered a decline of 22.3% as exports were restricted to 2.2 million tons in first seven months of this fiscal against 2.782 million tons during July 14 to Jan 15. South-based factories also suffered a drop in exports during the first seven months of current fiscal year by 29.2% to 1.243 million tons from 1.756 million tons in corresponding period of last fiscal year.

The industry dispatched 3.085 million tons of cement in the month of January 2016 compared with 2.898 million tons during January 2015, a growth of 6.47%.

Again this was mainly attributed to healthy domestic sales. Local dispatches during January 2016 were 2.69 million tons against 2.419 million tons during January 2015 showing growth of 11.54%.

Export dispatches during January 2016 dropped to 386,562 tons against 478,000 tons during January 2015 showing decline of 19.19%.

Economic planners are not giving due attention to the rapidly declining cement exports, according to APCMA press release.

Pakistan PPP GDP has increased 4.5X since 1990 in terms of current international dollar, according to the World Bank:

1990 GDP $212 billion

2016 GDP $952 billion (IMF puts it at $982 billion)

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD

The Geary–Khamis dollar, more commonly known as the international dollar (Int'l. dollar or Intl. dollar, abbreviation: Int'l.$ or Intl.$), is a hypothetical unit of currency that has the same purchasing power parity that the U.S. dollar had in the United States at a given point in time. It is widely used in economics.

By 2050, emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia are likely to be larger than the UK and France,while Pakistan and Egypt could overtake Italy and Canada (on a PPP basis). In terms of growth, Vietnam, Indiaand Bangladesh could be the fastest growing economies over the period to 2050, averaging growth of around5% a year. Figure 3 shows the projected average annual GDP growth rate over the next 34 years for all of the 32countries we modelled. Total GDP growth is also broken down into how much is attributable to populationgrowth and how much to real GDP per capita growth.

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2.1 Background to our World in 2050 reportsOur first ‘World in 2050’ report was published in March 2006, featuring projections for potential GDP growthfor 17 leading economies over the period to 2050. Our initial model covered: the 10 largest advanced economies: the G7 (US, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy and Japan),Australia, Spain and South Korea; and the seven largest emerging economies, which we referred to collectively as the E7 (China, India, Brazil,Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey).We subsequently updated our projections in March 2008, January 2011, January 2013 and February 2015.With each new edition up to 2015, more countries were added to our model, which now also covers: Argentina, Saudi Arabia and South Africa to complete coverage of the G20; the Netherlands, as a key European advanced economy; Poland and Malaysia, as two fast-growing medium-sized countries; and Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam asadditional relatively large emerging markets.

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The largest movers over the next 35 years are projected to be Nigeria, Vietnam and Pakistan. Nigeria, whichcurrently ranks in 22nd place, could move up to 14th though this is dependent on diversifying its economy andaddressing weaknesses in institutions and infrastructure, as discussed further in Box 2. Vietnam could movefrom 32nd to 20th, and Pakistan could move from 24th to 16th. Other strong emerging market performers includeBangladesh who moves from 31st to 23rd and the Philippines, which moves up 9 places to 19th by 2050.

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As previously touched upon, strong population growth will be a key driver of overall GDP growth in many oftoday’s emerging market and developing countries, boosting their potential workforce and domestic consumermarkets. Figure 13 shows that the growth in the working age populations of many emerging markets, includingNigeria, Pakistan and India, will outstrip growth in the total population. In contrast, for many advancedeconomies, such as Japan, Italy and Germany, their populations will actually shrink in size by 2050. Thiscontraction will predominately be driven by a fall in the working age population; across the G7 economies,average growth in the working age population will be negative over the period 2016-2050 at -0.3% per annum.

Pakistan’s auto part manufacturers are bullish on future growth of the industry due to growing sales of locally-assembled vehicles and planned investments of new companies.

“A record number of foreign exhibitors are going to participate in the Pakistan Auto Show (PAPS) 2017,” Pakistan Association of Automotive Parts and Accessories Manufacturers (Paapam) Chairman Mashood Ali Khan told reporters at a local hotel on Wednesday.

Paapam officials expect over 65 international exhibitors in PAPS 2017, being held from March 3-5 at the Expo Centre, Karachi. Relative improvement in security, macroeconomic stability and the announcement of the new auto policy in 2016 has created an ideal condition for global car manufacturers to invest in Pakistan.

Current conditions are particularly beneficial for the local auto part making industry, which is expected to provide auto parts to new automobile entrants that need their partnership to produce economical cars in Pakistan.

“New auto players like Kia and Hyundai are setting up their plants in Pakistan and this is a huge opportunity for us,” former Paapam Chairman Aamir Allawala commented.

“Last year, only six international exhibitors participated in the event, but this time the response is overwhelming. We are pleased to entertain a large complement of dignitaries from across the globe,” added Khan.

This time a total of 85 local exhibitors, 17 sponsors, six universities and 17 support organisations are going to take part in the show. This comes to a total of 192 exhibitors this year, as against 104 last year. In PAPS 2013, a total 15,000 visitors and 100 exhibitors were part of the show while in 2014 the number of visitors was 25,000 and there were 150 exhibitors. In 2015, the visitors increased to 30,000 and exhibitors were 200.

Government officials, local and international buyers and manufacturers, machinery manufacturers, raw material providers and service providers are expected to visit the show.

International visitors from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Sri Lanka, the UAE, the UK and African countries have attended the past events, but this year visitors from other countries as well are expected in this show, Paapam Senior Vice Chairman Saeed Iqbal Ahmed Khan said.

“We would like to strengthen our international relationships, which have been developed after years of hard work. Export orientation will be the key to introducing new and upgraded technology,” he said.

Paapam Vice Chairman Syed Mansoor Abbas commented that an additional important objective is to strengthen relationships with OEMs and strive to increase localisation content.

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I am the Founder and President of PakAlumni Worldwide, a global social network for Pakistanis, South Asians and their friends. I also served as Chairman of the NEDians Convention 2007. In addition to being a South Asia watcher, an investor, business consultant and avid follower of the world financial markets, I have more than 25 years experience in the hi-tech industry. I have been on the faculties of Rutgers University and NED Engineering University and cofounded two high-tech startups, Cautella, Inc. and DynArray Corp and managed multi-million dollar P&Ls. I am a pioneer of the PC and mobile businesses and I have held senior management positions in hardware and software development of Intel’s microprocessor product line from 8086 to Pentium processors. My experience includes senior roles in marketing, engineering and business management. I was recognized as “Person of the Year” by PC Magazine for my contribution to 80386 program. I have an MS degree in Electrical engineering from the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
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