2 Content German energy transition in the power market ( Energiewende ) Study on a pumped storage expansion with renewable energy production shares of 60% in 2030 and 80% in 2050 Pumped storage plant (PSP) contribution for reliable available capacity and for avoiding curtailments of renewables Economic and ecological benefit of a PSP expansion Conclusions of the study Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 2

3 What has basically changed? In previous German energy transitions (e.g. coal to oil in the 60s- 70s; oil & coal to nuclear in the 70s- 90s ) just the primary energy carriers have been exchanged while the system architecture for electrical energy remained unchanged. In the past system architecture, energy storages were not of central importance for system stability because thermal power plants offer sufficient reliable available capacity and the residual load was never below zero. So far energy storage has been undertaken by nature by means of the primary energy carriers coal, gas, uranium or oil. The power generation followed afterwards as needed, i.e. the sequence has been first storage and after that generation. Electricity from wind and solar is generated intermittently and this generation is detached from the demand. The sequence of energy storage and generation has been changed. Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 3

6 ... but with a negligible contribution to reliable available capacity ( potencia assegurada ) MW installed wind & solar power by the end of 2011 and their contribution to reliable available power installed power reliable available capacity Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 6

8 Problems lie with what many view as the solution: electricity from wind and solar power *) Ecologically speaking, there are strong arguments in favor of new renewable energies. But they also entail technical risks: Electricity from solar and wind power is generated intermittently. If we want a 30% share of this weather-dependent electricity, we get 100% in good conditions but 0% when conditions are bad. It's a case of feast or famine! This may lead to an unstable and costly electrical energy system because we need: much more transmission grid capacity, still lots of reserve & backup thermal power plants and storage capacities and flexibility to compensate the volatility of wind & solar. *) View of a Swiss utility on the German energy transition. Source: Hans E. Schweickardt, Chairman of Alpig Holding SA, Switzerland: The energy transformation in Germany multiple implications for Swiss utilities, PLATTS European Power Summit, Berlin, April 28th,

9 Why does Germany need new transmission grid capacity? 9 Decentralized feed-in of wind & solar has to be integrated into the existing electricity system, which was designed for a different scenario Main wind sources are in the North, main consumers are located in the South of Germany 300 GW 200 Generation Scenarios (by German regulator) Reference A B C B Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Natural gas Mineral oil Pump storage Misc. conventional Wind on-shore Wind off-shore Solar Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Source: IAEW

14 Questions which the study answers: 1. To which extent can pump storage plants (PSPs) prevent curtailments of wind and solar generation? 2. To which extent can PSPs provide reliable available capacity in order to reduce the necessary conventional thermal power plant fleet backup? 3. Does an expansion of PSP in Germany pay off macro-economically? The target of the study was the minimization of the total costs for investments in power plants and fossil fuel consumption, considering all power plants in Germany and using a dedicated plant scheduling optimization tool. Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 14

25 Worst case scenario: December 2050 (80% RE) 2-weeks with less or no wind conditions, less sunshine [MW] without PSP Contribution of wind & solar drops almost to 0 MW in this situation! Run-of-river, geothermal and biomass have some contribution. [MW] with PSP PSP avoids inefficient short term operation of thermal power plants. Maximum peak load for the thermal power fleet in this year, which is approx. 10% lower in the scenario with PSP. thermal filling of up. basins curtailment of RE Smoothening and peak shaving effects using PSP are also in this scenario obvious. RE lowering of up. basins load profile 25

27 Conclusions of the study PSPs have to be recognized as an important connecting & completive element between the fluctuating renewable energies and the conventional energy generation with thermal power plants. PSPs can substitute up to 16.6 GW fossil power plant reserve capacity in 2050 with 80% RE. RE expansion with a PSP fleet expansion can reduced the thermal power plant capacity reserve. But RE expansion without PSPs cannot! The PSP fleet is able to compensate the volatility of the renewable energies and allows a more economic & smoother operation of the remaining thermal power plant fleet. As a result, the Demand-Side-Management of consumers in industry and private house-holds can be mainly avoided. Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 27

28 Conclusions (continued) The key to success factor of the shown results is that the multi-functional pumped-storage power plants are a perfect combination of large-scale energy storage, provision of reliable available capacity for peak demands and enormous flexibility for positive and negative loads! pump mode turbine mode Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 28

31 Consequences for the thermal power plant fleet PSPs can provide additional ancillary services and quickly compensate the daily fluctuations in the generation or consumption. Remaining thermal power plants plus the PSP fleet must be able to compensate the load for time periods with less or almost no RE generation (e.g. wind calms). All in all less thermal power plants are needed. Existing conventional plants run until the end of their lifetime, are better utilized and run smoother and more efficient. Their fossil fuel consumption can be reduced, which also means that Germany can reduce a part of its fossil fuel dependence. CO 2 emissions reduction is about 2 Mio. t per year in the 2050 (80% RE) scenario. Seminário Técnico sobre Usinas Hidrelétricas Reversíveis no Setor Elétrico Brasileiro Making the energy transition in Germany... K. Krüger 31

37 Reliable available capacity via PSP PSPs can in fact provide reliable available capacity if the entire PSP fleet is operated as described in the study, i.e. used as short-term storage for max. 2 to 3 days, and the "filling" of the storage basins is carried out depending on the residual load by RE and/or the thermal power plant fleet. thermal filling of up. basins curtailment of RE RE lowering of up. basins load profile Of course, PSPs are not capable of covering the base load in the way thermal power plants can. The maximum national load relevant for the dimensioning of the reliable available load, however, is always composed of the base load and a variable peak load. Consequently, PSPs can very well reduce the reliable available capacity of fossil-fuel power plants by covering the peak load! A requirement for this is that the installed capacity of thermal power plants during nighttime is always enough to cover the load and, in addition, to fill the upper basins of the PSPs even if and this is of crucial importance in this context no RE input at all is available. 37

41 Tail water Hydraulic short circuit operation Head water During this operation mode the motorgenerator is permanently synchronized which allows extremely fast switching from no load running to nominal load in pump or turbine mode. Same direction of rotation in T/P Allows very steep load gradients (+/-) The grid sees only the difference between turbine power and pump load The stabilization of the grid has a higher priority than the efficiency Hydraulic short circuit operation at the three machines set in Kops II (175 MW in turbine mode, 150 MW in pump mode) 41

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