Big Ten football analysis starts with Michigan

His Michigan teams have sunk to new lows, they wail. The game has passed the old coach by, they insist.

And those are Michigan fans.

This is what happens when the Wolverines lose three straight to Ohio State. Never mind the 5-1 record Carr’s team compiled over the Buckeyes when John Cooper was in charge in Columbus. Carr is 1-5 against Jim Tressel, and in this rivalry, it really does come down to the previous game.

Last year, all Michigan did was go into Ohio Stadium ranked No. 2 the day after Bo Schembechler died and chase the top-ranked Buckeyes all afternoon before dropping a 42-39 decision.

For that, Carr’s over the hill?

This year may serve Carr’s critics a plateful of crow with all the trimmings. He’s brought in new coordinators on offense and defense, has his key starters back on offense, and plays both Notre Dame and Ohio State at home. The Wolverines could go into the Ohio State game unbeaten again. So, sizing up the Big Ten naturally starts with ...

1. Michigan

Chad Henne at quarterback, handing off to Mike Hart, blocking led by Adam Kraus and Jake Long, with Mario Manningham getting open for passes. That, and a defense eager to prove it’s the offense’s equal, is why Carr will look so smart this season. Why, the Wolverines may even win a bowl game for the first time in five seasons.

2. Wisconsin

Nobody believed in the Badgers early last season, and they beat everyone but Michigan. This year, Ohio State returns to the schedule, and with nine starters back on offense - and with head coach Bret Bielema no longer a rookie - there’s a good chance the Badgers can go into Columbus on Nov. 3 and beat the Buckeyes. Then comes Michigan.

3. Ohio State

Only four starters back on offense. Just five back on a defense that was drubbed by Florida in the BCS title game. So why are the Buckeyes third on the list? Because experience says Tressel’s teams rebuild quicker than most, and logic says it will take just a bit of time to replace the skill and savvy of Troy Smith.

4. Penn State

Joe Paterno is starting his 42nd year as head coach, the Nittany Lions are in a clobbering mood on defense, eight starters are back on offense, and people in Happy Valley are smiling again. A Big Ten title is unlikely, but if the Lions surprise Michigan on Sept. 22, look out.

5. Iowa

The Hawkeyes have gone 13-12 the last two seasons, with two bowl losses. That’s not acceptable in Iowa City, and head coach Kirk Ferentz knows it. The turnaround could be led by quarterback Jake Christensen, the Lockport High School product who’s the only backfield member who didn’t start last year. The defense returns eight starters, including all of the front four.

6. Illinois

Little-known fact: Illinois led the Big Ten in rushing average last season, 188.8 yards per game. That foundation is what quarterback Isiah “Juice” Williams will stand on as his passing game develops. As it does, linebackers J Leman and Antonio Steele have to corral the rest of the league’s backs and hope the secondary finally improves. Thanks to Ron Zook’s ace recruiting, the Fighting Illini have a chance to be the surprise of the league.

7. Purdue

The only thing Joe Tiller hasn’t done at Purdue is win the big ones consistently. The Boilermakers’ one Rose Bowl trip under Tiller was in the 2000 season, and the lack of another has caused grumbling among the hard-to-please. It might be tough to match last year’s 8-6 record, if only for the trio of opponents Purdue faces back to back to back at midseason: Notre Dame, Ohio State and Michigan.

8. Northwestern

If the Wildcats start smartly, an eight-win season in Pat Fitzgerald’s second year as head coach isn’t out of the question. But much depends on how much quarterback C.J. Bacher has developed from last year, and whether Adam Kadela and his fellow linebackers receive assistance from a secondary stretched like Silly Putty last season.

9. Michigan State

It’s quieter in East Lansing with John L. Smith out the door, but it may take some time before the Spartans improve. Mark Dantonio, hired from Cincinnati, has to retool a program that careened out of control under Smith. An all-new backfield may take time to develop, but the Spartans play a selection of patsies at home before Big Ten play starts.

10. Minnesota

Say this for Tim Brewster. He’s absolutely giddy about coaching the Golden Gophers. A member of Illinois’ 1983 Rose Bowl team, Brewster replaces Glen Mason, whose teams usually started strong before sputtering against conference worthies. Last year was the reverse, but Brewster has enough starters back, especially on defense, to have a shot at seven wins in the first eight games. The exception: Ohio State. Hey, it’s not like Bronko Nagurski is back on campus.

11. Indiana

Hoosiers will be remembering the late Terry Hoeppner constantly this year, and that can’t be anything but a burden. Northwestern went through it last year in the aftermath of Randy Walker’s tragic death. Bill Lynch, whose head coaching résumé includes stops at Butler and DePauw, had already been named interim coach before Hoeppner died. Lynch benefits from eight returning starters on offense and nine on defense.

More college football coverage can be found online at www.dailysouthtown.com/sports