On the heels of the news that John McCain permanently suspended his campaign in economically strapped Michigan, its southern neighbor Ohio now favors Barack Obama over McCain 49 to 43 percent, a lead built on an impressive 48 to 35 percent edge among independent voters. McCain's attempt to seize the mantle of change is falling on deaf ears in Ohio as by 24 points, voters in the Buckeye state believe Obama, not McCain, is the reformer and by 18 points, Ohioans believe Obama will bring the right kind of change. And in a state where the economy is king, Obama's aggressive positioning of the economic contrast with McCain has produced an 11-point Obama lead on which candidate will do a better job on the economy.

This memo is based on a survey of 600 likely voters across Ohio conducted September 29 - October 1, 2008. We hope that you find this analysis useful in your work and if you have any questions or comments, please contact us at 202-478-8300.