My guess is that these figures were priciest the first few days, will level off a bit, and then will probably climb even higher than the initial prices. That at least is what happened (to the best of my recollection) with last years SDCC figures and also Toy fair.

Personally, I don't think you'll see the black spider-man for less then 150, but my crystal ball has been wrong before. and I don't think it will be included in a set in the future.

Couple other notes that may help:

sign into ebay, click on advanced search, and click completed auctions and you can see exactly what people have been getting them for. That will give you a clue as to what they are worth, and what the low end is.

search on a couple different things.. some people are incorrectly calling this figure venom, and some are using 'SDCC' vs writing out 'San Diego' so you might get a time when a certain listing is not getting as much hits/interest as others.

oh, and I've written a couple rants on the subject, but I would encourage everyone to write Lego and complain about this sort of thing. I really don't get why Lego feels the need to line the pockets of convention attendees, but it's becoming sort of a standard practice. Get ready for your collection have a lot of holes.

The difference between the SDCC 2011 figures and the SDCC 2012 figures is that this year, Lego has stated that the figures are exclusive to Comic-Con and will not be released in these versions in future sets. Back when SDCC Batman and Green Lantern were released, Lego called these 'preview figures', creating a general concensus among the fandom that these figures would appear in this form future sets: hence eBay prices started out relatively low (based more on the backing cards than on the figures), until it turned out that these would in fact not be released in those forms: causing a pretty sharp increase in pricing which still seems to continue to this day.With the 2012 SDCC figures, the exclusivity was known beforehand, allowing scalpers attending SDCC to make a killing buying these figures from kids at the Lego booth for relatively low prices, only to sell them on on eBay for the current unbelievably high prices. However, demand for these kinds of exclusives are driven by hype, and the SDCC hype doesn't last forever. Especially with initial prices on eBay already high, chances are that these will stabilize somewhere a little lower than current pricing, with perhaps some of the figures (the ones which didn't end up in the hands of scalpers) being sold of on eBay by people who are less aware of the more extreme prices. By the way, 'exclusive figures' actually doesn't really mean that much: Lego could theoretically release a Jean Grey minifig with a different hairstyle or different colored hands (but with the same torso and face) in a future set and it would still technically be a different version. The SDCC symbiote Spiderman figure will get a very comparable figure in Venom, which will be released in 2013, and which seems to be making use of exactly the same torso and legs as the SDCC exclusive symbiote Spiderman, so with that figure, you already know you're mostly paying for the backing card and the exclusive headprint.

On the issue of exclusive figures and the 'impossibility' of getting them: I honestly believe that the 'artificial rarity' of stuff like these figures is above all a marketing ploy created by companies to sell you stuff you don't actually need and wouldn't want if that stuff was common. It is 'artificial rarity' because (unlike paintings by Van Gogh or drawings by Leonardo da Vinci) there is no reason to not make the supply match the demand, except to create a hype and a buzz around a product. Whereas in the past companies strived for actual instrinsic quality of their products as a distinguishing selling point, nowadays it seems modern companies (including Lego, alas) need this artificially created rarity and subsequent demand and related hype as a marketing ploy for selling their products, cynically feeding into the 'gotta catch 'em all' mentality of modern Western consumers. At the end of the day, it's not actually Lego lining the pockets of convention attendees with their exclusives... It's the people buying the stuff at those inflated prices who line those pockets.

alldarker wrote:On the issue of exclusive figures and the 'impossibility' of getting them: I honestly believe that the 'artificial rarity' of stuff like these figures is above all a marketing ploy created by companies to sell you stuff you don't actually need and wouldn't want if that stuff was common.

But they AREN'T trying to sell me this stuff. They are very pointedly REFUSING to sell me this stuff. I still don't get what LEGO gets from making figs that nobody can ever buy from them. I'm not likely to make more of other LEGO purchases because LEGO made exclusive figs I can't ever get. If anything, I'm likely to make LESS.

Jake's Oy wrote:I'd appreciate some advice on attaining this fig as economically as possible, I am a patient person so I am in no hurry

As previously mentioned, FBTB was told that these will not be made again. Granted that doesn't mean we can't get variations of it. I think we'll probably see a Jean Grey in a Jim Lee style costume, or at least that's what I'm hoping for.

Personally, I think anything around $100 is a really great snag. Like someone else mentioned that requires you to be pretty dilligent in checking ebay for the figure. I think anything below $120 is good. At the end of the day, pay what you're comfortable with. I wouldn't wait too long, b/c as more sets come out from Lego, there will be more "collectors" brought into the fray wanting to pick up those hard to get figures that they might have missed out on.

One thing that I've been thinking about is the Chrome C3PO. 10k were given away (some via events, and most in random sets). Those figures clear $300 all day long now, and there are 10x more as many of them as there are of these Super Hero minifigures. Take that information how you wish, but I'd have to say these will hit that range of $300 in a couple of years.

I wouldn't wait too long.

alldarker wrote:...With the 2012 SDCC figures, the exclusivity was known beforehand, allowing scalpers attending SDCC to make a killing buying these figures from kids at the Lego booth for relatively low prices, only to sell them on on eBay for the current unbelievably high prices.

Honestly, if I had the patience, I would have done that just to complete a set. You can only imagine how insane it was to completing a set.

I also don't like one of the reps at DC, as DC gave away a few at their panels if you asked them a question. The moderator liked to preface that the Shazam was going for more than $300. That just created even more hype. It only broke $300 once and that was the first listing after that, it died off.

Jake's Oy wrote:I'd appreciate some advice on attaining this fig as economically as possible, I am a patient person so I am in no hurry

I actually also collect Transformers, and every year, the Botcon convention takes place, dedicated to Transformers. Hasbro make a special limited edition giftset each year for Botcon as well as several Botcon exclusive packs and figures, all limited to appoximately the same numbers (editions of ~1000-1500) as these SDCC Lego figures. After-market demand for these exclusive figures (especially the attendee-only figures) is also always pretty high, with a comparable flurry of selling activity on eBay after the convention. Someone on the TFW2005.com Transformers forum has done quite a bit of data-gathering regarding these Botcon items sold on eBay over the last couple of years, with actual selling price and period after the event as parameters. His research shows that the 'sold for' - prices are highest in the first 2 weeks, after which prices flatten out, and become relatively steady after a month. True to this info, it seems that current prices are now starting to drop off, and you might would do well to buy the figures at next weeks prices, four weeks after SDCC...

Thanks everyone for your informative replies. $100 for a collectible fig wouldn't hurt me. Its just the principle of the matter paying such a premium to a 3rd party. The fig its self is no different than any other fig in its function, its just that the powers that be decided its rare so now its $$$$.

I grew up reading comics and I loved the symbiote as a kid. Venom was fun after. Then it got a little silly later >.>

I wouldn't take my word for it, but maybe these figs will also be offered at NYCC in October. That way there will be more o the market and the price may go down. But then again this is all speculation.

The figures might be on offer at NYCC as well, but on the other hand, the cards will still be unique to SDCC. Especially if you look at NYCC carded Superman, its value seems to be primarily in the unique NYCC card, more than in the (generally available) Superman figure. BTW, NYCC didn't really do any wonders for the prices on the Green Lantern / Batman. Consider the following facts: 1. In total, 1,500 SDCC + 1,500 NYCC sets of Batman and Green Lantern were released: 3,000 each;2. SDCC / NYCC were (much!) easier to acquire, also in larger amounts per person; 3. Back then, people still expected the SDCC / NYCC Batman / Green Lantern to be released in a regular set; 4. Only 1,000 (x 4) SDCC figures have been released up 'til now;5. The SDCC have been confirmed as not ever going to be released in regular sets.

All this leads me to think the pricing on SDCC figures won't drop much further than they are right about now, even if they are re-released during NYCC.

alldarker wrote:The figures might be on offer at NYCC as well, but on the other hand, the cards will still be unique to SDCC. Especially if you look at NYCC carded Superman, its value seems to be primarily in the unique NYCC card, more than in the (generally available) Superman figure. BTW, NYCC didn't really do any wonders for the prices on the Green Lantern / Batman. Consider the following facts: 1. In total, 1,500 SDCC + 1,500 NYCC sets of Batman and Green Lantern were released: 3,000 each;2. SDCC / NYCC were (much!) easier to acquire, also in larger amounts per person; 3. Back then, people still expected the SDCC / NYCC Batman / Green Lantern to be released in a regular set; 4. Only 1,000 (x 4) SDCC figures have been released up 'til now;5. The SDCC have been confirmed as not ever going to be released in regular sets.

All this leads me to think the pricing on SDCC figures won't drop much further than they are right about now, even if they are re-released during NYCC.

According to the Lego rep at SDCC, they were A) not going to do the same figures again and B) haven't decided on which ones they're doing.

What's interesting regarding the NYCC figures, there weren't many Supermans ever listed on eBay. I remember tracking them for a while, and it just never made it's way up there. And you're right, the NYCC release dropped the prices of the SDCC Lantern and Bats, but those prices have risen above what they sold for at it's peak during the 2011 SDCC.

You mentioned that the NYCC figures were easier to get...did you go last year?

I was really hopping there was going to be a backlash against Lego for this type of thing but I get the sense that only a handful of people of are as upset as I am about this.

I actually did pick up a set on Ebay and I HATE lining the pockets of scalpers. Oddly enough, the money I used to buy these came out of my Lego fund, so at least in my case, this resulted in a direct loss of revenue for the Lego company. The other big problem is that some Lego fans will get scammed on Ebay and wind up with neither the figure or their money (luckily everyone I bought from recently was a good seller).

As for the prices, I agree they'll only go up. Probably a better bet than the stock market, but a zero chance I'd be able to convince my wife it's a good investment 'strategy'.

For me, living near NY, it unfortunately still makes sense to buy them on ebay, as opposed to the cost of the convention and lost payday at work. Of course that may change if there are four new figures for NYCC and I decide to try pay for the cost by scalping myself (Would that be bad?)

Of course, the real losers here are the kids, who Lego is intended for. I feel the worst for them. At least I can afford to blow a couple hundred on this stuff. If I was 14, I would just be annoyed, and probably stop collecting. (I'm a completest and have on a number of occasions stopped collecting something when a company refused to allow me to complete a collection at a fair retail price). Luckily that wasn't the case for Lego in the late seventies and eighties.

Gooker1 wrote:According to the Lego rep at SDCC, they were A) not going to do the same figures again and B) haven't decided on which ones they're doing.

So... Did the Lego rep at SDCC mean that the NYCC would actually get 4 different exclusive Superheroes (or Supervillains)?

Gooker1 wrote:You mentioned that the NYCC figures were easier to get...did you go last year?

No, I wish I could have, but it's just too far away to make that kind of trip from Europe. The wife and I still want to do SDCC one day though. Back to the matter at hand: I actually meant that from the accounts I read about, it seemed 'easier' to get the 2011 figures in comparison to the SDCC 2012 figures, based on the strictly enforced 'one-figure-per-person-per-day' rule of SDCC 2012 compared to the 'just getting in line several times' of SDCC 2011 (and NYCC 2011?).

gomek wrote:I was really hopping there was going to be a backlash against Lego for this type of thing but I get the sense that only a handful of people of are as upset as I am about this.

I don't really think there was ever much chance of a huge backlash against Lego. One reason is that these characters are actually relatively little known outside of the US, so non-US fans won't really care too much about these figures. Also, for lots of people, Lego is still mainly about the bricks, and not so much about the minifigs. And not every fan is a completist. Lastly, Lego has always had certain sets with only limited or exclusive release, such as the Vestas Windmill or company-specific sets and airline-sets, for which completists have always had to go to eBay to spend as much as the equasion supply/demand would result in.

As far as the real losers being the kids: I wonder how many kids not at SDCC actually even know about the existence of these exclusive figures. And even if they do know about them, I wonder how many will feel entitled to own them, just because they exist. Kids probably have way less of a completist attitude, probably because they also lack the funds and have little say in what they they get from their parents (unless they are completely spoilt brats). I'd actually say these exclusive figures are very firmly aimed at adult collectors.

Lego will have a presence there as stated by other websites. Whether or not they'll have a booth is another story. Anyone go last year, and if so, did they have a booth? How were the 2011 figures given away?

I missed the first train on all of this so catching up was pretty expensive. I have been looking for the best possibly deals and have found some good ones. On the average I paid $150.00 each for Spidey, Bizarro, Shazam and Phoenix (SDCC). Most of it came from the sales of other Lego so that did not hurt as much. I paid $150.00 for Green Lattern which I did not think twice about once I had the others mentioned. Batman cost me more, roughly $200.00. As for Toy Fair Iron man and Captain America, well I took that one like any man experiencing a colonoscopy, ouch! At the end of the day, I am happy with what I paid for them considering they are complete and with the lanard.

I do not see these items going down much below the $125.00 in my opinion, actually that would be a great deal. As time goes on and new items come out the older ones will be continue to increase in price. If you can swallow it now, do it because later on you will be kicking yourself.

PS - I have an extra Phoenix due to overzealous bidding on my part. Let me know if anyone has a home for it.

I'm finally going to be able to pick up Venom / Symbiote Spiderman, the last of the ComicCon 2012 exclusive figures I was waiting for, from the post office tomorrow. In contrast to the others I received, customs got their grubby paws on it, holding it up for two weeks and making me pay duties and taxes over the value. Anyhow, I'll have all four of the 2012 Superheroes and Bilbo + bag + (properly stickered) map. I'm afraid that NY ToyFair Bucky / Ironman will be WAY too expensive to pick up anymore, but at least I managed to get ComicCon 2011 Green Lantern and Batman relatively cheap last year, thanks to a fellow FBTB member.

Speaking of overzealous bidding... I actually have an extra Phoenix AND an extra Shazam I wouldn't mind trading or selling off.