duncan I admire the effort but you basically argued the bear case for each individual player. Scherzer and Porcello could also continue to improve, just like we are expecting our prospects to do. It is unreasonable to assume all the Tigers will deteriorate and all the Royals will get better.

And your last point about money appears moot. Mike Illitch has a net worth of $2 billion and apparently is willing to spend for a winner. There's nothing stopping him from spending another $100 million on payroll in the coming years if he has the money.

A lot of the optimism about KC's chances in the coming years was due to the assumption that Chicago and Detroit would not spend like NYY or Boston; if they do, then that changes things because Glass will never spend anywhere close to that.