Optimism mounting around online gambling in Pennsylvania

The vote comes after weeks of mounting optimism among online gambling industry stakeholders.

That optimism reached a peak last week after one of the key barriers to passage – authorization of video gaming terminals (VGTs) – was successfully decoupled from the legislative attempt to regulate online casino and poker games.

The inclusion of VGTs in any online gambling bill was widely regarded as a poison pill, as Pennsylvania’s land-based casinos – the primary advocate for online gambling – made it clear that VGT authorization was an absolute non-starter.

Questions hover around Senate passage

The momentum garnered by HB 2150 on the House side certainly augurs well for the fate of online gambling in the Senate.

Chances with Wolf

Should the bill clear the Senate, it would then head to the desk of Gov. Tom Wolf.

Wolf has perpetually occupied something of a middle ground on gambling expansion in general, and online gambling specifically. But Wolf has generally left room for supporting online regulation if it serves the greater purpose of mending Pennsylvania’s budgetary woes.

His latest comments on the subject came via a response to the Poker Players Alliance:

1/2 Re: PA #iGaming, Gov. Wolf recently wrote to @ppapoker members that he is open discussing #iGaming in a budgetary context but that …

HB 2150 appears to be positioned as a funding source within the House budget plan.

What would PA’s online gambling market look like?

What games would be allowed in Pennsylvania?

Broadly speaking, Pennsylvania would authorize both poker and casino games for regulated online play in the current version of HB 2150.

In terms of what that will mean in practical terms, much of the specific slate of available game types will be left up to the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB).

There’s little reason to suspect that the game selection at launch will closely mirror the available options in New Jersey’s market, especially given the substantial overlap between the two states when it comes to operators and suppliers.

When would Pennsylvania launch online gambling?

There are a number of ways things could play out if a bill is passed this summer.

New Jersey took about eight months from bill passage to launch date. That was considered an incredibly rapid timetable.

But Pennsylvania will not be starting from the same terra incognito that New Jersey was working from. With the experiences of Delaware, Nevada and New Jersey to draw from, Pennsylvania could chart an even faster course to launch.

The range recently provided by PGCB head Kevin O’Toole: 9 to 12 months following enactment of the authorizing law. That would put the launch in early-to-mid 2017.

In any case, it seems highly unlikely that Pennsylvania will be offering online poker and casino in 2016.

How much will the Pennsylvania online gambling market be worth?

The predictions for the size of Pennsylvania’s online gambling market vary – not as dramatically as pre-launch estimates for New Jersey, but there’s still a broad delta between the high and the low: