Monday, August 17, 2009

Mr. VIX Finally Making the Turn?

src="http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js">On a weekly chart, depending on how the rest of the week goes, it looks like the Volatility Index ($VIX) is trying to make the turn back to bear land. I have been anticipating this turn for quite some time and got faked out by the false push at the end of June above the declining trend line. But we have just about run out of time for the declining wedge at the terminal end of a correction for Mr. VIX, as shown below on a one year weekly candlestick chart:

A turn in the $VIX has significant implications related to the end of the bear market rally and profits for put option holders. This bear market is far from over and hard times are ahead for the bulls. A spike down, followed by a rally to re-test the highs and set-up a momentum divergence would create the ideal shorting opportunity. However, Mr. Market doesn't often give us what we crave...

As the US Dollar continues to firm, almost everything else will fall. I believe the final leg down in senior Gold stocks was confirmed today and the end of such corrections can be panic-inducing if one isn't psychologically prepared for them. I will post more on this pending buying opportunity tomorrow, but I think GDX and senior Gold miners have further to fall, as does the Gold price on a short-term basis. We are close to a potential good buying opportunity, but not there yet. Trust me, there is no rush and patience should be rewarded.