Afghanistan: Karzai, Solution or Problem?
President-elect Obama has always emphasized Afghanistan as "the right war"and vowed to divert resources from Iraq to better fight the Taliban and
al-Qaeda. But that war effort has not been going well, and many analysts
warn that one of its key weaknesses is that it is focused on propping up the
Western-friendly government of President Hamid Karzai  a government many
analysts see as a liability because of its corruption and ineffectiveness,
which have alienated it from the local population in much of Afghanistan. The
weakness of the Karzai government may be one of the most important political
factors boosting the Taliban's current resurgence.

With Karzai due for re-election in the fall of 2009, the Obama
Administration will face some tough choices. Karzai has indicated his
intention to run again, and there are no real national figures who are serious
alternatives. He could conceivably run against a largely symbolic opposition,
as Yasser Arafat did in the Palestinian elections of 1996. Although there was an
opposition candidate, the main opposition  Hamas  stayed out of
the race. So, too, would the Taliban, and the political contest would be
between voting and boycotting an election associated with an increasingly
unpopular foreign military presence. On the other hand, a renewed Western
focus on creating a more viable Afghan government as the anchor for its
counterinsurgency strategy may yet see other candidates step forward to
challenge Karzai. But more important than the election will be the efforts,
already underway, to negotiate a new political compact with more moderate
elements of the Taliban on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. An
election aimed at reaffirming the mandate of an increasingly unpopular
President may prove to be more of a hindrance than a help in finding a
political solution to the seemingly intractable Taliban insurgency.