Category Archives: Rain data

0.24 inches was recorded after 7 AM yesterday, bringing our voluptuous rain total to 0.95 inches1. How nice.

Dry spell ahead now, maybe a LONG one. “Fiddle-dee-dee.”

Yesterday: another day shallow precipitating clouds and “ice multiplication”

Seemed to be another day of “ice multiplication” here in southeast Arizona, a term that was coined in 1969 by Peter Hobbs of the University of Washington when he and his group reported that clouds were snowing on the peaks of the Olympic Mountains when the cloud top temperatures were warmer than -10° C (14° F). They had a hut on the top of Mt. Olympus at 7,000 feet! Lots of stories about that experiment, many swirling around Abdul Alkezweeny, a Peter Hobbs grad student in those days. An aircraft with skis landed up there to bring supplies! Imagine. (Yours truly was not embedded in the Hobbs group at that time.) It was an exciting time in that group, prior to the acquisition of their first research aircraft, WWII B-23 “tail dragger.” Peter himself, did not fly in this with RARE exception. Many flights were quite sickening, bumping around in Cumulus and small Cumulonimbus clouds, spinning around power plants stacks, wings vertical to ground….

In a nostalgic mood, posting this photo of our venerable B-23 research aircraft in which I spent SO MANY hours!

His group’s observations, however, were not the first, but were among many airborne and ground reports in the mid and 1960s that left jaws dropping about how much ice was in clouds at these moderately supercooled temperatures, even in clouds with tops as warm as -4° C. It was believed, in various ways that ice nuclei measurements were made on the ground, or in aircraft measurements, that not much ice would be found in clouds until the top temperatures was lower than -20° C. In fact, it was generally believed that only about one ice particle per liter would be found in clouds with tops as cold at -20° C, while actual observations were telling a much different story.

This discrepancy between measured ice nuclei concentrations is a scientific enigma that is still being investigated today! And it appears that me and you cloud maven juniors out there got to see it again yesterday, the second day in a row to see an cloud-ice enigma (“nigma” for short)!

Let us continue this module by examining the assertion of “ice multiplication” with the TUS balloon soundings for yesterday morning and evening as rendered by IPS MeteoStar:

These soundings strongly suggest at the start and end of the day, that coldest cloud tops were warmer or no colder than -10° C.

However, the fly in the oatmeal here is that a cold front and associated wind shift came through in the mid-morning hours, heralded by an little arcus cloud, and cloud tops would have been somewhat colder during that period of rain; we don’t know for sure how much, and satellite imagery suggested lower temperatures, though possibly due to over-riding CIrrus cloud above the “Nimbostratus” layer that produced the steady light rain.

However, the rain before the front went by, and the very light rain showers that fell in the late afternoon were likely well represented by the TUS soundings. That’s my case! Wish I’d had a cloud-instrumented yesterday and the day before. Woulda got a paper out of it: “Ice multiplication rampant in Arizona!”

Yesterday’s actual clouds

No more hand-waving…. Let’s see if it really was raining near the time of the TUS soundings above. Picture of the day:

5:18 PM. Rainbow goes INTO a RAIN GAUGE! Amazing. Proves that it was raining, though very lightly (RW–) at 5:18 PM, when the sounding profile was likely valid for these light showers. Q. E. D.! Yours for $2,000, today only. Should get a lot of money out of this photo. I had to practically have the camera on the ground to get the right alignment and illusion.8:08 AM. Misty, light rain showers shower on the Catalinas and in Catalina itself.

8:50 AM. Misty light rain continues from relatively shallow clouds. No shafting observed, something that would suggest much taller cloud tops. These were likely “mounding” up there, like rolling hills, mounding the most prior to releasing slightly heavier rain. Here’s where you would be thinking, “Could this be ANOTHER ice multiplication day? Wow, if so.” And, of course, the thought of it being a warm rain process day (no ice, thank you) can’t be ruled out either, since rain can form at below freezing temperatures in clouds, though supercooled raindrops are the most vulnerable to freezing at high temperatures, to go a little deep here, and complex the interpretation some.

That was phase one of yesterday’s weather, rain from shallow clouds.

Phase 2 is, “The front marches in across the OV! Cloud depth not so certain, but is probably not real deep, as inferred from the disappointing amount of rain that fell so lightly from the frontal band in spite of its dramatic entrance, fronted by an arcus, wind shift cloud.”

9:55 AM. Here comes the front and arcus wind shift cloud!10:06 AM. Here the approaching front and wind shift appeared to have jacked up a cloud top near Pusch Ridge. Was thinking, as you were, maybe we’ll get some thunder today.10:14 AM. Arcus cloud rolls fast across the OV; rain follows.10:19 AM. Arcus cloud passes over Sutherland Heights, and light curtains of rain begin to fall from it.11:26 AM. The end is near. The sun became visible after only an hour of steady, very light rain, and a tenth of an inch of rain. Thought there might be a gush in this, but, no. This also points to shallow, mounding or even flat cloud tops, not tall ones. This was not a good sight.

But, as those who live here know, some of our best scenes are AFTER after the rain has stopped and the skies partially clear. Yesterday was no exception. But first, the Stratus, which you don’t see too often:

1:09 PM. Looking north at a Saddebrooke highlight. Stratus is beginning to break up out there.1:11 PM. Stratus in the cold air following the frontal passage (“FROPA”, in weather speak or texting). Not budging yet.1:35 PM. Yep, only 25 or so min later, this! So pretty. Stratus fractus lining the area around Charouleau Gap.2:30 PM.2:57 PM. Cumulus puffing up by the minute. Will they form ice?3:04 PM. Just a pretty scene of Cumulus over there toward Saddlebrooke.4:02 PM. A bit of a surprise as a group of precipitating Stratocumulus like clouds came rushing in. No shafts, suggesting tall tops were seen, so likely again just mounding tops up there.5:24 PM. As the last sprinkles ended and the sun peaked through an opening to the SW, our mountains and clouds lit up with an orange tint. As the air cooled the Stratus fractus clouds (highlighted) again were once again straddling the side of mountains near Charouleau Gap.

Looks like only streamers of high and middle cloud from the tropics as California gets blasted with extremely heavy rains over the next two weeks. Totals in favored central and northern California coastal ranges, and in the central and northern Sierras will fall between 20 and 30 inches of rain during this period. A great place for you and me to be would be near the King Range, Shelter Cove (see below), or Honeydew to see those pounders.

Part of Shelter Cove, CA, with King Range in the background. A coastal jet rams the King Range and causes prodigious rains from ordinary looking storms. Average precip more than 100 inches, farthest south point for such a high average rainfall on the West Coast.

The End

—————————–1The online gauge is a Davis tipping bucket. It has been consistently under-measuring totals recorded in the NWS 8-inch diameter gauge, and the 4-inch diameter, ground-mounted (it sits on the ground among grasses and weeds) CoCoRahs gauge. CoCoRahs is a national organization of rain and snow measuring nuts (haha, just kidding-they’re really precipophiles like me) all over the country and overseas as well. You can find them here. Part of the reason for the under-measurement of the Davis instrument is loss due to wind. That tipping bucket sits up at about 6 feet off the ground, thus sees a lot more wind than gauges on the ground. A gauge on the ground, away from tall objects, is always the best way to go! The reason for this explanation is because if you go to Wundermaps or Weather Underground and see the total for this site, it is ALWAYS going to be low compared to the actual amount that fell. This is a degradation that has come up over the past year or two.

in Sutherland Heights, that is. but 1.58 inches (!) over there by Tangerine and Oracle Road:

Personal weather station rainfall totals as of 7 AM AST this morning. All of these totals are for the period after midnight last night! The green and yellow regions are rain areas from the TUS radar.

Yesterday’s clouds; pretty spectacular stuff

2:42 PM. Out of focus hailstone. Thought you’d like to see that first.

The remainder of the photos were taken at various times during the day, except as noted:

2:49 PM. Dwarf rainbow due to the high altitude of the sun.2:49 PM. Dwarf rainbow with a larger view of backyard letting go to HELL, not doing anything with it, or, as we would say, is a “restoration of habitat combined with erosion control project in progress (Letting nettle grass takeover, too.) Its great being environmental and lazy at the same time! Hahahaha, sort of. Originally this recovering area was scrapped off for a new septic system. Is in recovery now. Yay!

Flash: Plethora of storms lining up for Catalina during the rest of December. Spring wildflower seeds take note. Expecting to see a little snow here, too, in one of those–happens about once a year at our elevation (3,000 to 3500 feet), btw, so its not terribly unusual.)

The first one, on December 12th, is in the bag, the one we’ve talked about for a few months I think (that forecast based on spaghetti), except now it happens on the 13th. Droughty Cal will get slammed by this one, too.

Hope you’re happy now.

—————————————————————

Now, for the “main event,” a recapitulation yesterday’s clouds….

A Nice,cool and gray day it was, if you like sky-covering layers of Altostratus translucidus and opacus , interrupted in the mid-day hours by a lower layer of Altocumulus clouds.

Those Altocumulus clouds represented a “thin” corridor of clouds between deeper bands that went over us yesterday. Bands of thicker and thinner clouds are pretty normal as storms pass by us. First, this overview from satellite of our cloud sequence:

Visible satellite image for 1:15 PM yesterday when Altocumulus clouds comprised the main deck, rather than Altostratus. Too bad there was more humidity underneath this system,; coulda been a great rain. The arrow points to our location and the thinner cloud corridor that pass over at that time. Cloud banding like this always occurs with storms, providing lighter and heavier periods of rain over an hour or two.

11:29 AM. Big virga (falling snow) from Altostratus opacus (sun’s possible is not detectable at this time) rolls in from the horizon. Lots of weak radar echoes beginning to show up in our area. Some lower flakes of Altocumulus clouds can be seen at left center, and on the horizon, left center. Bases now around 18,000-20, 000 feet above the ground. Likely a few drops were reaching the ground where the virga hangs down another few thousand feet. Freezing level was around 11,000 feet above sea level.1:40 PM. Thin spot in satellite image, characterized by Altocumulus opacus clouds, was now passing over us between bands of heavy Altostratus with virga. As a CMJ, the appropriate thing to say to your neighbor would have been, “Wow (lot of excitement here), what happened to those deep clouds?! Cloud tops have really come down. Must be a thin spot. Hope that darkness on the horizon is another deep cloud band because then it might rain.” End of excitement. Cloud bases as you would guess, have continued to lower (but not nearly as much as the tops did). The Altocumulus bases here are estimated to be 12,000 feet above the ground. (By the end of the day, they were about 9, 000 feet above the ground, 12,000 feet above sea level).

3:05 PM. That last banded feature in the sat image, consisting of Altostratus opacus again, is starting to pass overhead. More weak radar echoes were present, some passing overhead, but, saw no evidence of a single drop on trace detector (car parked out in the open, moved for that purpose, since CM can’t be outside at all times.3:06 PM. Most of you will share my excitement here; surely a drop will be felt at any moment! As you know, in these situations, the rain hits the ground (largest drops first) long after the preciping part of the cloud has passed overhead. So, here we are looking downwind over the Charoulou Gap at a bunch of virga that passed over a few minutes ago, hoping for that drop that never came.5:01 PM. As the deep cloud tops moved away, and a large clearing approached from the west, the setting sun provided a golden view of Samaniego Ridge. The lower-topped Altocumulus clouds can be seen above Sam Ridge. Bases were now down to 9,000 feet above the ground. Tops were about 16, 000 ASL, about -13 C. Higher colder tops were still in the area producing virga.

5:03 PM. Even the teddy bear cholla, as horrible as it is, can be quite gorgeous in the evening light.5:19 PM. Later, sunset occurred, pretty much on time. It was OK. These, of course, are those Altocumulus clouds, sans virga; too warm in this case for ice production even with tops around -13 C, or about 9 F. Ice formation characteristics can vary from day to day, the reason is not always clear, but seems to be most closely related to the sizes of the cloud droplets. The bigger they are, the higher the temperature at which they freeze.

Below, from Intellicast, folks who hate Accuweather, where our radar network thought it rained a few drops on you (or probably just above you) yesterday:

Jack is happy. Got 1.21 inches yesterday afternoon. Nice! No doubt some of our friends, fellow lowlanders, who can’t take Catalina-Sutherland Heights when the temperature rises above 82.5 F unlike you and me, experienced that cloud downspout that occurred at to Happy Jack Ranger Station in Pine, AZ, at almost 8,000 feet elevation.

For additional rainfall reports beyond those provided at “Happy Jack”, of course, we have to go to about 3 dozen other places because no one has managed to cull ALL of the rainfall reports we get into ONE daily list. Well, maybe the NSA has them all… Here are a few more links to rainfall data:

Not to mention the many “school net” and TEEVEE station-established rainfall reporting stations, and those folks who monitor rainfall at home but don’t report it to the rest of us who want to know about it. Maybe NSA can help out there, too. Hahahahaha, sort of. (BTW, I have nothing to hide to whomever is reading this; well, mostly nothing.)

——-EDITORIAL OUTBURST——

How strange it is that we cannot go to ONE friggin’ site and get all of the rain reports for the whole State! Would it be due to a lack of…….inter agency cooperation and competition, even among non-profit organizations???? (Insert creepy organ music here)

——-END OF EDITORIAL OUTBURST——

Back to rainfall observations…..

Douglas, AZ, if you haven’t heard from your favorite TEEVEE meteorologist who makes a lot of money1, has experienced its wettest June through August ever, with 13 plus inches, with about two weeks to go! This is for the purpose of generating a thought about a trip, a weather vacation, for you. That whole area down there, with its historic heavy rains this summer MUST be seen! Your weather diary will be sadly lacking without some notes about the vegetation, ponding and stream flows in that area. Damn well know I’m going again. There is a treasure of scenes, maybe new lifeforms, down thataway that won’t happen again in our lifetimes. The specifics below from the NWS:

SXUS75 KTWC 130105
RERTWC
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST MON AUG 12 2013
...DOUGLAS ARIZONA RECORDS WETTEST METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON RECORD...
RAINFALL OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND AT BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT PUSHED
THEIR 2013 METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER TOTAL TO 13.23"...WHICH ECLIPSED
THE OLD RECORD OF 13.07" FROM THE SUMMER OF 1964.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS THE PERIOD FROM JUNE 1 TO AUGUST 31ST.
THE 13.23" IS ALSO THE TOTAL FOR THE 2013 MONSOON. THIS RANKS AS 2ND
WETTEST MONSOON ON RECORD...STILL WELL BEHIND THE RECORD OF 15.90"
FROM 1964.
LASTLY...THE 2013 CALENDAR TOTAL OF 14.10" CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE
19TH WETTEST YEAR ON RECORD.
$$

On to clouds, yesterday’s:

As a CMJ, you should have noticed the harbinger of better things ahead for late yesterday afternoon and evening when we had “thunder on the Lemmon” beginning at 2 PM, about 4-5 hours earlier than the two prior days. Earlier is better.

Also earlier were the first scruffs of Cumulus clouds forming over the Catalinas, in this case about 2 h ealier than prior days, another “earlier is better” scene for rain here in Catalina-SH. Here are some scenes; hope you seen’em. Oh, my, another outburst of creativity.

First, before Cumulus, these “strangers”:

8:11 AM. Billow clouds, Cirrocumulus undulatus, if you want a tech name. They weren’t around very long, just a few minutes, hope you scene’em. Best seen as action figures in the U of AZ time lapse film for yesterday.

11:13 AM. Cloud street streaming off the Lemmon is pretty advanced for this time. Cloud bases, too, a bit lower than the day before. Lower is better (for rain amounts).1:43 PM. First ice on top of Ms. Mt. Lemmon. Should be in your diary. Can you see it? Answer in next image. I’m trying to learn you up on these things…dammitall. Note lack of a rain shaft at this time1:43 PM close up of glaciated turret showing above the cloud mass above Lemmon. There’s some writing on it. Thunder b

While this early TSTM fabove aded quickly, dropping only 0.28 inches on Mt. Lemmon, the “Dump of the Day” (say, those within 5 miles of here) erupted suddenly just after 5 PM over and to the south of the Golder Ranch development at the foot of the Catalina Mountains. The cloud-to-ground strikes came within seconds, not minutes from this dynamo, though like its predecessor, it did not last long. Still, parts of it moved far enough north to give SH (Sutherland Heights) 0.12 inches. Here it is:

5:16 PM. “Dump of the Day”, looking toward the Golder Ranch development from the parking lot at the top of Golder Ranch Drive. LTG was too scary to leave car.

And, of course, the day finished out with another one of those dramatic sunsets, and the lighting on the clouds at that time of day that makes us so happy to be here, that we can take temperatures above 82 F without having to depart for higher ground. Last evening, this beauty:

7:03 PM. Looking north beyond Saddlebrooke, and along with it, another fabulous evening of lightning. Doesn’t happen like this as a rule in that colder, high terrain that our “temperature refugees” head for. Much better down here for evening and nighttime LTG.

——————

1I dream about being a TEEVEE weatherman making a LOT of money. I could then take those weather vacations I’ve dreamed of, never mind the State Department Travel warnings, to Cherrapunji, India, where they once measured over a thousand inches of rain over 12 months; to the Island of La Reunion in the southern Indian Ocean where tropical storms have sat and dropped, and your jaw will also drop, 72 inches of rain in ONE day, and 66 inches in 18 hours in a DIFFERENT storm–before that one let up.

Let us first begin first by NOT exulting too much over our own rain, but let us revel in that rain that has fallen in the Plains. New Mexico, too. From WSI Intellicast this beauty for the past 7 days:

A radar-derived sum of the rain that has fallen in the past seven days over the USA. Please observe the yellowish and orangy areas in Kansas, indicating that between 8-16 inches has fallen! Oh, my. Let us remember, too, that July and August are supposed to be relatively dry months in these areas; the wetter times in May and June.

Below is our national drought status at the onset of the week above (for July 30, 2013), and indicates why so many of us should be thankful for this past weather week:

The national picture of drought as of July 30, 2013. It will be updated later today.

Well, they didn’t get so big, so soon over the Lemmon, as foretold by one model referred to yesterday, but there was something later in the afternoon near the top of Lemmon. Can you detect whether that the turret shown below is mostly “glaciated” or not? You know, that’s why I do this, to learn you up on clouds and when they got ice and therefore are precipitating out the bottom even though here you can’t see the bottom. It all for YOU. Its no problem for me, of course.

5:04 PM. A Cumulus turret has protruded above the others behind Ms. Lemmon. If it’s glaciated, it might be better be termed the head of a Cumulonimbus calvus (“bald”) and would have rain underneath it. What do you think? Only the C-M knows for sure. Sounds like something from a radio program I’ve heard somewhere. But, you should try anyway. Answer at the bottom if I remember to put it there.6:31 PM, Swan and Trotter, with metaphorical “Dead End” road sign, lower right.While to the uninitiated this Cumulonimbus capillatus anvil may have appeared to be heralding a storm, overspreading the Catalina sky the way it was, the lack of cumuliform portions, the fraying edges, not hard ones, indicated it was in its dying phase. Photo of anvil with metaphorical sign; yours for $2,000 (more than usual because some mental effort was expended). Now that I am thinking about money, I think I will demand a million dollars to continue blogging, and see what happens.

2:47 PM. RIght here you knew that the model run that had an echo by 3 PM on Ms. Lemmon was going to be off as we see but a Cumulus mediocris forming after the usual mid-day clearing.

Oh, yeah, billions and billions of tons of rain dropped out of the skies over AZ, and much of the SW over the past two days. It, too, might have saved billions in dollars by deterring crop losses, vegetation and critter stress, and own our stress over the drought, “Will it get worse?” That watery relief was so great. Could hardly stay indoors yesterday. 267 photos of clouds and rain, which I think says something about neurotic-compulsive behavior.

(BTW, too many clouds shots “is” WAY down at the bottom after too many rain tables–this is really a horrible blog today.) Continuing….

Check the happy totals from the Pima County ALERT network for the 24 h ending at 4 AM today. Since its a “rollling archive” you’d better look at it when it partitions the best 24 h storm total or you’ll miss it. Hence, this pdf:

The U of AZ rainlog network totals are here, but to get the full 24 h storm amount you’ll have to go to the upper right hand corner and select “date range”, then put the 25th to the 26th in that window (the U of AZ assigns the 7 AM total recorded today to the previous day on these maps. So, that early morning rain before 7 AM yesterday was assigned to the 25th. That’s why you have to appear to be lumping two days together to get a 24 h storm total. Sorry its so complicated.

A national organization that has different gauges in some cases is “CoCoRahs”. Their statewide totals for 7 AM can be found here. Again, like the U of AZ, you’d have to lump two dates together to get the 24 h total, in this case, the 26th and 27th since CoCoRahs records the rain on the date of the measurment, does not assign it to the day before as Rainlog does. Confused yet? The CoCoRahs method corresponds to the NWS methodology. Confused yet? The rainlog method works great for summer when the 7 AM measurements almost always correspond to rains the REALLY did fall on the prior day. Confused yet?

Mind is worn out now, will rest for a minute…. There….moving ahead again.

USGS statewide totals, the greatest in this list, 2.78 inches at Salt River below Steward Dam. Since this is a rolling archive like the Pima County ALERT system, I’ve made a couple of jpegs of the list for the time of the most precip in 24 h, so you’ll get a better idea of how ridiculous it is to have to go to so many sites to get a comprehensive view of rainfall in ALL of Arizona, all available data. Kind of remarkable that being concerned with drought and climate change that one has to go to SO MUCH “darn” TROUBLE to get a comprehensive view of rainfall! (End of rant)

NWS reports as of 5 PM AST, also in jpeg format so that they can be easily read. These include the regional and statewide reports for the 18 h ending at 5 PM. (I have no idea at present why these amounts are for the 18 h instead of 24 h):

Finally, those totals from folks who report to Weather Underground can be found here.

The rain data at WU default to a 24 h midnight to midnight rain day and so to get the storm totals, you’ll have to select yesterday’s date (also, since you’re likely to display weather stations showing just the temperature and wind direction data, you have to go the “weather station” dark blue button and open that window up and select “precipitation.” Is anybody still out there reading this? I doubt it. Well, now I just found that it only displays the hourly values for the date I chose! Forget it.

8:06 AM. First rainband has moved through producing 0.40 inches. Looking SW at Stratocumulus during slight break in rain.8:47 AM. Skies remained dark, low hanging and dramatic, then evidence of cells, Cumulonimbus towers probably having tops five to ten times higher than the Stratocumulus clouds emerge to the SW. It was going to be a rest of the good day.9:48 AM. During a momentary sunbreak, this trapped cloud was seen below the Samaniego ridge (just above the Los Cerros Water Co tank that needs repainting badly; looks kind of shabby though the water company itself is pretty good). The wind is blowing from right to left, but the cloud is recirculating in the lee of this ridge. On a mountain peak, such a cloud in the lee of the peak is termed a “banner cloud.” It was neat to see it here.9:59 AM. Here comes that wild, torrential rainband, just having been spawned by the little vortex whose center passed so close to us yesterday. This was so great to see because the rain totals were going to be jacked up significantly. 0.31 inches fell as it went by Upper WIlds Road”, but places nearby got twice that! Some thunder occurred here–showed up on the LTG network. Clouds? Line of Cumulonimbus.10:12 AM. The rain pouring out of that Cumulonimbus iine shoved the air out of the way and this arcus cloud raced ahead of the line, akin to our summer storms. The wind shift and gustiness flowing out from the storms are a little ahead of the cloud’s position.11:19 AM. Post-rainband evidence of a substantial amount.12:12 PM. Some of the prettiest cloud shots come right after a rain. Here, in the tops of Cumulus over the Catalinas shearing toward the right, the apparent curvature in the whole scene including the low Stratus fractus along the mountains, hints at the curvature seen in the eye of a hurricane, and may well have reflected that little vortex that went by yesterday.2:21 PM. Dramatic skies develop again(!). These clouds developed strong showers that marched across Oro Valley and across Saddlebrooke.2:30 PM. Same clouds just 9 min later. Just like summer, ice forms up top, out the bottom comes the precip!3:17 PM. Even more like summer, this thundery shaft.Four unusual-for-January in-cloud discharges occurred.4:55 PM. So appropriate for near the end of such a fine rain day, a rainbow.

Clouds today?

Some great scenes of wash fog, such as in the CDO just now. But after that scattered to broken moderate Cumulus, probably grouping into clumps more like Stratocumulus, filling the sky some this afternoon.

While the U of AZ model has showers developing today, cloud tops now, and in the model forecast appear to be to warm for ice development. So, for today, it seems that only clouds and not showers are going to happen.

We’re on the edge of precip when the cold blast hits tomorrow just after dawn. It seems that the range for that would be a miss (0) to a tenth of an inch at tops is about all we can must of that event early tomorrow morning.