The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries

We thank David Andolfatto, Mark Aguiar, Susanto Basu, Paul Beaudry, Larry Christiano, Matias Cortes, Erik Hurst, Marianna Kudlyak, Ryan Michaels, Richard Rogerson, Aysegul Sahin, Robert Shimer, Chris Taber, Marcelo Veracierto, Gianluca Violante, as well as numerous conference and seminar participants for helpful discussions. Domenico Ferraro provided expert research assistance. Siu thanks the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada for support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.