McCullum's blitzkreig and other demolition jobs

This is my second lightweight post in preparation for the serious analysis on Test Captains.

While I was perusing a table I found that there was an innings scoring rate of 15.83. I went back to the scorecard and saw what could be termed as the most devastating win in ODI history. I started thinking about such matches. Until now we have only looked at wins by huge number of runs or by 10 wickets as comprehensive wins. Now there is a different angle in terms of scoring rates.

This also enables us to look across both types of matches, whether teams win batting first or second. In both these matches the RpO differential is a clear indicator of the extent of domination. We should remember that a 10-wkt win need not be that dominating a victory. Imagine a team bats first and scores 200 in 40 overs. The chasing team bats very carefully and wins, say, in 45 overs by 10 wickets. This is certainly not a very comprehensive a win.

There are no qualifying conditions for this analysis. It is a very simple one of finding the RpO differential and ranking by this measure. I have separated the two tables so that we can have a clearer understanding of the win margins.

The first match in this table defies description. Bangladesh is not a weak team such as Hong Kong or Bermuda are. It is not clear what prompted McCullum's assault on the hapless Bangladesh bowlers. Maybe a Bangladeshi remark on beating New Zealand before the match or a personal comment on McCullum. Anyhow here are the details. Bangladesh, batting first, scored 93 in 38 overs and would have expected to pick up a wicket or two in 20 overs during which New Zealand would have cantered towards a comprehensive win.

What happened cannot be forgotten. New Zealand scored these 95 runs in 6 overs at a rate of 15.83, the highest for an innings, by a margin of over 50%, in ODI history. McCullum scored 80 in 28 balls, the second fastest completed 50+ innings in history. The difference in RpO is 13.38. The mind goes blank.

Given below is McCullum's scoring sequence. 6x6s, 9x4s and only 7 dot balls. Makes great viewing on print and should have made greater viewing, in person. Shahid Afridi, being the only batsman with a 100+ strike rate, who I consider the most attacking batsman ever in ODI cricket would have been proud to own this innings.

4 . 4 4b . 4 6 4 6 . . 2 . 4 4 6 4 1 2 1 6 . 6 2 4 6 . 4

Look at the next entry. In terms of RpO difference, it is almost half of the first. Sri Lanka, chasing the third lowest ever ODI total of 38, reached this target in over 4 overs. McCullum might have reached in 2 overs. The blast in this match did not come from batsmen but from Vaas who took 8 for 19.

The third match is interesting. England were dismissed for 117 and then mayhem. Gilchrist and Hayden (the vintage Hayden, not the 2008 imposter) reached this target in 12 overs (including 22 boundaries).

The West Indies innings rate of 10.05, in the 12th match against Canada, is the secong highest innings scoring rate, one of only two exceeding 10.0. This was a great performance since as many as 206 runs were scored in just over 20 overs, during which 36 boundaries were scored.

Note the number of 10-wicket wins. There are 8 such wins in the top 20. Also the number of times England have been at the receiving end of such margins, four in all, sharing the lead with Bangladesh.

It is surprising that 6 of these losses have been inflicted on the top teams, England 4 times and Pakistan 2 times. Sri Lanka and South Africa lead with 4 wins each.

It is necessary to understand the reason why South Africa's win over Holland (by 221 runs) is placed ahead of India's win over Bermuda (by 257 runs). The first was over 40 overs while the second was over 50 overs. New Zealand's win by 290 runs over Ireland has an RpO differential of only 4.13 since Ireland scored quite freely.

India has two of the most comprehensive wins in the top 5 while New Zealand also has two. But all these 5 matches are against the minnows.

The most comprehensive "relevant" win was Sri Lanka's 245 run win over India. Jayasuriya and Vaas contributed to this demolition job.

Five of the losses have been sustained by the top teams, Sri Lanka sustaining such heavy defeats thrice, all during mid-1980s. Quite a few teams, including Sri Lanka have done this thrice in the top-20 table.

Anantha Narayanan has written for ESPNcricinfo and CastrolCricket and worked with a number of companies on their cricket performance ratings-related systems

Excluding McCullum's performance against the minnows, he averages a paltry 26 in ODIs and 28 in Tests. His 3 international centuries have all come against minnows. He is no newcomer either, being around for 5 years now. Hardly figures that should make anyone drool over him. A very average performer. He is no doubt an exciting talent and can be breathtaking on his day, but as the figures suggest, those days are few and far in between.
Btw
Good Analysis ananth.It would have been better though, had the minnows been excluded.

fanedlive
on January 26, 2009, 18:48 GMT

Dhoni and McCullum are on a very even keel. Dhoni shades the batting stats on consistency but McCullum is by far the better keeper (i've seen Dhoni miss some crucial stumpings/catches in both forms of the game). McCullum is more explosive in my opinion so on their day I'd have to go watch McCullum and also pick him ahead of Dhoni.
Granted in saying that, I'd rather have the entire Indian top order for him to bat around. Cbuck in Vettori somewhere near the bottom and you're looking at 350+ :P

fanedlive
on January 20, 2009, 9:47 GMT

Anantha,

I realise your original post was something much simpler. It's an interesting article by itself. I just thought the resources based analysis might go a step further. You will need a subscription to view the journal. I have such a subscription, so I could email you the pdf. If you'd like me to then email me your email address.

[[
Thanks, Daniel. Let me look at that.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 19, 2009, 18:20 GMT

Anantha, If you are really interested in ranking the greatest wins in ODIs by resources remaining I suggest reading 'Estimation of the Magnitude of Victory in One-day Cricket' by de Silva et al. (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118994627/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0). They use a modification of the Duckworth-Lewis Method. I would be most interested to see the results of such an analysis.
[[
Daniel, my effort was only to show the variation between the scoring rates whether a team won batting first or second. There was no attempt to bring in all the resources into the picture.
Incidentally I am unable to open the link however much I tried. T tried two browsers, changed the options and did not succeed.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 12:29 GMT

Ok...so everyones on about dhoni......totally irrelavant to the topic bt since everyones on about WK/Batsman....hv u 4gotten Kuemar Sangakkara???
Technique wise he is miles ahead of Dhoni and McCulum...though he is not a test wk he is the regular ODI keeper isnt he??

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 12:06 GMT

Regarding Brendan McCullum's demolition of Bangladesh at Queenstown in so few overs. Bangladesh were all out well before their alloted time was up, so New Zealand had to bat for eight overs or so before lunch. McCullum was keen on the idea of having a round of golf instead that afternoon, so set his mind on getting to the target in the few available pre-lunch overs, or so his batting partner that game advised while commenting a recent ODI between the West Indies and New Zealand, something he spetacularly achieved.

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 6:02 GMT

I think we need to realise that dhoni has some great batsman in his team like tendulkar and sehwag. In New Zealand Mccullum is the most senior batsman in the top 6 apart from Oram(and thats if he's fit). I think theres not much between them both they are big hitters with the quickest hands in the modern game. I have to say that Mccullum is on his day is the most dangerous keeper/batsman. But Dhoni has seem to take his game to the next t level and is a very mature player. If Mccullum becomes more consistant he will be the better of the two. We also need to remember that batting is only half the job and that we need to take in account in their keeping. i know that mccullum is one of the most energetic keepers ive seen.

fanedlive
on January 9, 2009, 22:10 GMT

I watched this game, it was pretty amazing to watch. It was on New Years eve in Queenstown, and i have heard (from a player) that McCullum wanted to go and play a round of golf after the match,so he finished it off quickly and then went out for a round of golf.

fanedlive
on January 9, 2009, 20:19 GMT

It would be really nice if there could be a link to each of the match ids, so that we an see the scoreboard directly from here
[[
Manish, good idea. I will request Rajesh to always provide the link whenever there is a reference to a match. I would do it myself. However I am not sure of the Cricinfo URL.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 5, 2009, 11:43 GMT

The second comment is that, barring the completely way-out McCullum match, the RPO differentials are comparable. So it seems as if it does not matter whether one bats first or second, at least as far as this RPO differential is concerned.
One more thing. The most amazing match in this collection is not the NZL-BNG match but the SLK-IND match. For a full strength Indian team to lose by nearly 5 runs per over is the most amazing match ever played.
[[
I agree with you. It is my personal belief that, barring none, that defeat of India by Sri Lanka is the most devastating one in ODI history.
The top five Indian batsmen were Ganguly, Tendulkar, Yuvraj, Kambli and Badani. Perhaps only Kambli paid the price for being in that batting line-up. He never played for India again.
Also the RpO difference is nearly 4, not nearly 5. But the real impact is probably nearly 5.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 31, 2009, 1:16 GMT

Excluding McCullum's performance against the minnows, he averages a paltry 26 in ODIs and 28 in Tests. His 3 international centuries have all come against minnows. He is no newcomer either, being around for 5 years now. Hardly figures that should make anyone drool over him. A very average performer. He is no doubt an exciting talent and can be breathtaking on his day, but as the figures suggest, those days are few and far in between.
Btw
Good Analysis ananth.It would have been better though, had the minnows been excluded.

fanedlive
on January 26, 2009, 18:48 GMT

Dhoni and McCullum are on a very even keel. Dhoni shades the batting stats on consistency but McCullum is by far the better keeper (i've seen Dhoni miss some crucial stumpings/catches in both forms of the game). McCullum is more explosive in my opinion so on their day I'd have to go watch McCullum and also pick him ahead of Dhoni.
Granted in saying that, I'd rather have the entire Indian top order for him to bat around. Cbuck in Vettori somewhere near the bottom and you're looking at 350+ :P

fanedlive
on January 20, 2009, 9:47 GMT

Anantha,

I realise your original post was something much simpler. It's an interesting article by itself. I just thought the resources based analysis might go a step further. You will need a subscription to view the journal. I have such a subscription, so I could email you the pdf. If you'd like me to then email me your email address.

[[
Thanks, Daniel. Let me look at that.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 19, 2009, 18:20 GMT

Anantha, If you are really interested in ranking the greatest wins in ODIs by resources remaining I suggest reading 'Estimation of the Magnitude of Victory in One-day Cricket' by de Silva et al. (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118994627/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0). They use a modification of the Duckworth-Lewis Method. I would be most interested to see the results of such an analysis.
[[
Daniel, my effort was only to show the variation between the scoring rates whether a team won batting first or second. There was no attempt to bring in all the resources into the picture.
Incidentally I am unable to open the link however much I tried. T tried two browsers, changed the options and did not succeed.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 12:29 GMT

Ok...so everyones on about dhoni......totally irrelavant to the topic bt since everyones on about WK/Batsman....hv u 4gotten Kuemar Sangakkara???
Technique wise he is miles ahead of Dhoni and McCulum...though he is not a test wk he is the regular ODI keeper isnt he??

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 12:06 GMT

Regarding Brendan McCullum's demolition of Bangladesh at Queenstown in so few overs. Bangladesh were all out well before their alloted time was up, so New Zealand had to bat for eight overs or so before lunch. McCullum was keen on the idea of having a round of golf instead that afternoon, so set his mind on getting to the target in the few available pre-lunch overs, or so his batting partner that game advised while commenting a recent ODI between the West Indies and New Zealand, something he spetacularly achieved.

fanedlive
on January 10, 2009, 6:02 GMT

I think we need to realise that dhoni has some great batsman in his team like tendulkar and sehwag. In New Zealand Mccullum is the most senior batsman in the top 6 apart from Oram(and thats if he's fit). I think theres not much between them both they are big hitters with the quickest hands in the modern game. I have to say that Mccullum is on his day is the most dangerous keeper/batsman. But Dhoni has seem to take his game to the next t level and is a very mature player. If Mccullum becomes more consistant he will be the better of the two. We also need to remember that batting is only half the job and that we need to take in account in their keeping. i know that mccullum is one of the most energetic keepers ive seen.

fanedlive
on January 9, 2009, 22:10 GMT

I watched this game, it was pretty amazing to watch. It was on New Years eve in Queenstown, and i have heard (from a player) that McCullum wanted to go and play a round of golf after the match,so he finished it off quickly and then went out for a round of golf.

fanedlive
on January 9, 2009, 20:19 GMT

It would be really nice if there could be a link to each of the match ids, so that we an see the scoreboard directly from here
[[
Manish, good idea. I will request Rajesh to always provide the link whenever there is a reference to a match. I would do it myself. However I am not sure of the Cricinfo URL.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 5, 2009, 11:43 GMT

The second comment is that, barring the completely way-out McCullum match, the RPO differentials are comparable. So it seems as if it does not matter whether one bats first or second, at least as far as this RPO differential is concerned.
One more thing. The most amazing match in this collection is not the NZL-BNG match but the SLK-IND match. For a full strength Indian team to lose by nearly 5 runs per over is the most amazing match ever played.
[[
I agree with you. It is my personal belief that, barring none, that defeat of India by Sri Lanka is the most devastating one in ODI history.
The top five Indian batsmen were Ganguly, Tendulkar, Yuvraj, Kambli and Badani. Perhaps only Kambli paid the price for being in that batting line-up. He never played for India again.
Also the RpO difference is nearly 4, not nearly 5. But the real impact is probably nearly 5.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 5, 2009, 11:37 GMT

Two differing topics, hence two comments.
The first is on McCullum. He is a very good player and would have done much better in a strong team. Dhoni has jad the cushion of an outstanding batting line-up, barring Srilankan tour. It is unfair to assign McCullum the role of a senior batsman. He is an attacking suport batsman. Used in that way, he would certainly deliver.

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 5:44 GMT

@Jazz and others. Why the comment on Dhoni at all? The article was about McCullum and his extraordinary innings against Bangladesh. I don't recall Dhoni being an invitational player for either team in that match, so his presence in the comments here is a tiresome irrelevance. Let's get back to the topic!

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 5:41 GMT

To all the Dhoni fans, watch the series against New Zealand, you may be surprised, I will be.

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 5:39 GMT

As a strong BlackCaps supporter, I disagree with your comment on McCullum not having enough support. Frequently he is one of the lack of support crew, like in today's nick to Ramdin. Normally the BlackCaps have to bat around him and wait for him to fire. His last big score was 84 no versus Australia in a lost test! While his last (and only) ODI century was against Ireland! We know McCullum's batting abilities from the IPL, I think this more accurately describes Bangladesh's toothless attack at the time. Also don't forget the other batsmen in the runchase, it was Jamie How 7no. (One of the lack of supports in the BlackCaps team... I expect him to be dropped fairly soon)
[[
Ross,
The point I made and still maintain is that, notwithstanding McCullum's current poor form, as a wicket-keeper he cannot be expected to be the fulcrum. He is not the right person to do that. He is one of the supporting cast, an attacking one and if the top order of New Zealand had been consistent maybe he would have added his bit.
As a distant supporter of the Black Cats I hope that Vettori is able to get a strong top-order going over the next year. As an aside, also that the New Zealand cricket authoritiies stand for their rights and select Bond.
Incidentally the Bangladeshi attack in this match was, by their standards, a good one, Mashrafe Mortaza, Shahdat, Saqib-ul-hassan and Abdul Razzak (pre-ban).
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 4:42 GMT

Why the negitive comment on Dhoni?
He is by far the best wkt keeper batsmen. The captaincy has helped him mature into the top odi batsmen.
If there is anything in cricket that disappoints me, it has to be Mccullum, ever since his consistence performances from 2006-2007 in the shorter formats of the game he has fell away.
[[
McCullum is a top class player in an ordinary team. Unfortunately he has not been able to blossom possibly necause of lack of support.
Dhoni is an equal (or better) wicket-keeper-batsman who has the huge advantage of having as his compatriots a host of world class batsmen and bowlers.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 3:26 GMT

Boy..Come on...Remove these minnows n bring on the real nations. This article , though appreciable, does not make sense.

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 2:36 GMT

@John - i think the article aims to capture instances where least resources are used to win matches. the case you have highlighted might be a comprehensive win for say, Bangladesh v SA, but not for SA v Bangladesh.
@ all Dhoni fans and detractors - not sure why you keep dragging him and the Indian team in comments for other posts - it seems totally irrelevant :)
Mr. Ananth - is it possible to create a small matrix of test tours (home and away) since 1990 for all teams? It would be interesting to see if there is any difference between tour schedules before and after the FTP was created. Also nowadays, it looks like the same teams play each other immediately at home and away - for eg England v NZ last year and England v WI this year. This does not seem to be correct and there should be a gap of at least one year and max 3 years between a test series between two teams. I think India have not hosted Bangladesh at all, your analysis might throw light on other such instances. thanks!
[[
Balaji,
While John is correct in his interpretation, thanks for bringing out the idea of resource utilization variance.
I have completed a major summary of all Test series in preparation of the Test Captain analysis and I can do what you want quite easily. Only problem is that there so many good ideas in the pipeline and scheduling these is becoming a problem.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 0:18 GMT

I would be interested if the above tables could exclude minnows (meaning also SL in the mid-80's, Zim in the early 90's and the years since the exile of their best players, and Bang until a few years ago). It's always much more juicy to contemplate which proud cricketing nations got walloped when!

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 20:31 GMT

dhonis WAS the most attacking wicket keeper batsman until he became the captain and became the most negative batsman in the world.
when he started out his 6 per match was better than afridi. and strike rate almost as good. i almost had a heart attack when he hit 183 against sri lanka cuz he got so close to saeed anwar's world record.

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 20:26 GMT

"Imagine a team bats first and scores 200 in 40 overs. The chasing team bats very carefully and wins, say, in 45 overs by 10 wickets. This is certainly not a very comprehensive a win."

I don't think there are many teams who would feel that bowling the opposition out for 200, and then reaching their target with 5 overs to spare and without losing any wickets wasn't a comprehensive win.

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 19:56 GMT

adhil , jelousy gets u nowhere.thats sad for u as india are going to dominate the world in the near future. go & live in another planet.
[[
Readers, don't miss the essence of the article. This table is headed by McCullum, an outstanding player in an otherwise ordinary team. Appreciate his efforts instead of arguing about Dhoni. These comments apply to Adhil as well.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 18:27 GMT

@Adhil
Dhoni has won matches for India, trimmed down his aggression to suit match situations, learnt to read pitches brilliantly, put Australia on the backfoot, etc etc.
And Anantha, sir, all of us are waiting for the test batsmen analysis. I imagine Sehwag be near the top? Lol...waiting to see!

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 14:59 GMT

Brendon is the most dangerous wktkeeper/batsman in the world.people speak of dhoni,but what has he done spectacular besides improving his awful hairstyle.brendon is world class in both departments.bat & keep.thats why his adored by his loyal fans like me

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 13:56 GMT

please prepare an analysis for the best test batsmen as you did for the odi's ............you can reduce workload by seperating cricket into post & pre the odi world cups as obviosly bradman is the best in the pre-world cup time.this is one my kind request. i am waiting for it ............so please please..............
[[
Will do do.
Ananth:
]]

No featured comments at the moment.

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 13:56 GMT

please prepare an analysis for the best test batsmen as you did for the odi's ............you can reduce workload by seperating cricket into post & pre the odi world cups as obviosly bradman is the best in the pre-world cup time.this is one my kind request. i am waiting for it ............so please please..............
[[
Will do do.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 14:59 GMT

Brendon is the most dangerous wktkeeper/batsman in the world.people speak of dhoni,but what has he done spectacular besides improving his awful hairstyle.brendon is world class in both departments.bat & keep.thats why his adored by his loyal fans like me

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 18:27 GMT

@Adhil
Dhoni has won matches for India, trimmed down his aggression to suit match situations, learnt to read pitches brilliantly, put Australia on the backfoot, etc etc.
And Anantha, sir, all of us are waiting for the test batsmen analysis. I imagine Sehwag be near the top? Lol...waiting to see!

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 19:56 GMT

adhil , jelousy gets u nowhere.thats sad for u as india are going to dominate the world in the near future. go & live in another planet.
[[
Readers, don't miss the essence of the article. This table is headed by McCullum, an outstanding player in an otherwise ordinary team. Appreciate his efforts instead of arguing about Dhoni. These comments apply to Adhil as well.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 20:26 GMT

"Imagine a team bats first and scores 200 in 40 overs. The chasing team bats very carefully and wins, say, in 45 overs by 10 wickets. This is certainly not a very comprehensive a win."

I don't think there are many teams who would feel that bowling the opposition out for 200, and then reaching their target with 5 overs to spare and without losing any wickets wasn't a comprehensive win.

fanedlive
on January 2, 2009, 20:31 GMT

dhonis WAS the most attacking wicket keeper batsman until he became the captain and became the most negative batsman in the world.
when he started out his 6 per match was better than afridi. and strike rate almost as good. i almost had a heart attack when he hit 183 against sri lanka cuz he got so close to saeed anwar's world record.

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 0:18 GMT

I would be interested if the above tables could exclude minnows (meaning also SL in the mid-80's, Zim in the early 90's and the years since the exile of their best players, and Bang until a few years ago). It's always much more juicy to contemplate which proud cricketing nations got walloped when!

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 2:36 GMT

@John - i think the article aims to capture instances where least resources are used to win matches. the case you have highlighted might be a comprehensive win for say, Bangladesh v SA, but not for SA v Bangladesh.
@ all Dhoni fans and detractors - not sure why you keep dragging him and the Indian team in comments for other posts - it seems totally irrelevant :)
Mr. Ananth - is it possible to create a small matrix of test tours (home and away) since 1990 for all teams? It would be interesting to see if there is any difference between tour schedules before and after the FTP was created. Also nowadays, it looks like the same teams play each other immediately at home and away - for eg England v NZ last year and England v WI this year. This does not seem to be correct and there should be a gap of at least one year and max 3 years between a test series between two teams. I think India have not hosted Bangladesh at all, your analysis might throw light on other such instances. thanks!
[[
Balaji,
While John is correct in his interpretation, thanks for bringing out the idea of resource utilization variance.
I have completed a major summary of all Test series in preparation of the Test Captain analysis and I can do what you want quite easily. Only problem is that there so many good ideas in the pipeline and scheduling these is becoming a problem.
Ananth:
]]

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 3:26 GMT

Boy..Come on...Remove these minnows n bring on the real nations. This article , though appreciable, does not make sense.

fanedlive
on January 3, 2009, 4:42 GMT

Why the negitive comment on Dhoni?
He is by far the best wkt keeper batsmen. The captaincy has helped him mature into the top odi batsmen.
If there is anything in cricket that disappoints me, it has to be Mccullum, ever since his consistence performances from 2006-2007 in the shorter formats of the game he has fell away.
[[
McCullum is a top class player in an ordinary team. Unfortunately he has not been able to blossom possibly necause of lack of support.
Dhoni is an equal (or better) wicket-keeper-batsman who has the huge advantage of having as his compatriots a host of world class batsmen and bowlers.
Ananth:
]]