Wilkie threat to Labor’s budget plans

Labor’s budget agenda is at risk from its split with independent MP
Andrew Wilkie
as it fought back yesterday against personal attacks on Prime Minister
Julia Gillard
for a “breach of trust" on poker machine reform.

The government is preparing for tougher negotiations with Mr Wilkie on budget measures worth billions of dollars after he hit out at Ms Gillard on the weekend and withdrew his ­support for the Labor government.

The moves raise doubts over reforms needed to maintain Labor’s plan for a budget surplus next financial year, including welfare savings and cuts to pharmaceutical benefits as well as a $2.4 billion saving on private health insurance rebates.

Mr Wilkie vowed to be “more independent than ever" in his scrutiny of government measures as he expressed concerns about past reforms that he had reluctantly approved because of his written agreement to back Labor.

“Legislation for full mandatory pre-commitment would fail in the parliament," Ms Gillard told ABC Radio on Monday.

“In those circumstances we’ve got a choice – do you go to the parliament, have something fail, get absolutely nothing done, make no difference to problem gambling, no difference to the usage of poker machines in Australia or do you act to get something done?"

NSW backbencher Craig Thomson, who is under investigation for misusing union credit cards before he entered parliament in 2007, on Monday wrote that Ms Gillard’s decision was a “victory for common sense" and that he and many others in the caucus has pressed for a trial before laws were enacted.

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“It is something that I and many NSW Labor MPs have been calling for – a comprehensive trial so that ultimately any legislation that comes before parliament is backed by scientific research," Mr Thomson wrote in the Daily Telegraph on Monday.

“Given the lack of evidence for a “silver bullet" for this issue, this is a common sense approach. To do otherwise would have flown in the face of proper policy making."

Cabinet ministers also defended Ms Gillard as pokie reform advocates rounded on her for abandoning the details agreed with Mr Wilkie and settling instead on a trial that would run beyond the next federal election.

Senator
Nick Xenophon
accused Ms Gillard of a “gross breach of trust" and said her government was a “shiver looking for a spine".

“How can you respect Ms Gillard, who backstabs the person who put her in office?" he said yesterday. Gambling critic Tim Costello expressed doubt over whether the reforms would ever be put into effect.

“This is a Prime Minister who gets the job done, and she can be trusted to get the job done," Senator Wong said. “And what she has done is ensured that we get the best package possible through the federal Parliament."

The wounds over the gambling debate threaten Ms Gillard’s agenda even though Mr Wilkie made it clear he would not support moves to bring down her government except in the event of “serious misconduct".

Coalition health spokesman
Peter Dutton
is seeking a meeting with Mr Wilkie to convince him to vote against Labor’s $2.4 billion cut to private health insurance rebates, a measure included in the budget forecasts that has not yet passed the Parliament.

Mr Wilkie has stepped back from supporting the measure in recent days, signalling he is undecided and wants to see more evidence of the need for change. Regional NSW
Rob Oakeshott
is also unconvinced of the plan.

The government’s deferral of drugs on the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, which has the potential to deliver substantial savings, came under fire from Mr Wilkie last year.

The Tasmanian independent also rejected moves to scale back fuel tax concessions that favour the use of liquid petroleum gas (LPG) in cars.

Mr Wilkie made it clear on Saturday that he was sceptical of the government’s plans to cut back the disability support pension – another budget saving – and had only approved such changes in the past because of his agreement with Ms Gillard.

With that agreement now void, Mr Wilkie will no longer hold weekly meetings with Ms Gillard and he loses the right to put policy proposals to the government for analysis and costing.

But a vital part of the agreement, a $340 million funding boost to Hobart’s main hospital, is already included in the budget and will stay.

Government figures said yesterday they expected difficult negotiations with Mr Wilkie but that his agreement had always left him scope to vote against budget measures and negotiate each reform on its merits.

It was also noted that Mr Wilkie would need government support if he sought help for his electorate of Denison before the next election.

Labor insiders expressed confidence they could govern with a one-seat majority thanks to the appointment of former Liberal
Peter Slipper
as Speaker of the House of Representatives last November.

A Coalition motion of no-confidence in the government would fail on the floor of the House assuming Labor’s 72 members gained support from Greens MP
Adam Bandt
and independents Rob Oakeshott and
Tony Windsor
under their agreements to back Ms Gillard.

The Coalition has 71 votes in the House after the defection of Mr Slipper and could be expected to gain support from West Australian National
Tony Crook
, but has no formal agreement with Queensland conservative independent
Bob Katter
.

Even if Mr Wilkie was convinced of “serious misconduct" within the ­government, he could not force a change without support from other independents or a decision by Mr Slipper to side with the Coalition or to step down from his position.

Families Minister
Jenny Macklin
released details of the trial of mandatory pre-commitment technology on poker machines in Canberra, with work to start “immediately". The trial is to run for 12 months from February 2013 and is to be followed by six months of evaluation and review.

Greens leader
Bob Brown
said there was “enormous cynicism" in the electorate over the trial.

The Greens announced they would introduce legislation to limit poker machine bets to $1, an alternative to the mandatory pre-commitment scheme, but Labor and the Coalition have decided against $1 bets, making it likely the bill would be defeated.

Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott
said the latest developments showed this Parliament was producing “dishonest government" and Ms Gillard’s broken promises. He refused to be drawn on whether he would push for a no confidence vote or early election.

Mr Abbott focused his attack on Mr
Thomson
, who is under investigation by the workplace regulator for use of his union credit card in a Sydney escort agency.

“Now that Andrew Wilkie is gone, this government is critically dependent upon the vote of one man, and that man is Craig Thomson," Mr Abbott said. “It’s a tainted government because it now relies on the vote of a tainted member."

The Opposition Leader said that Mr Wilkie had given the Prime Minister “the keys to the Lodge" in his agreement in September 2010 but had been betrayed, showing that nobody should rely on her word. “No one can ever take anything this Prime Minister says seriously again," he said.

Senator Xenophon levelled strong criticisms at Ms Gillard yesterday. “With every backflip and broken promise by this government, it is no wonder Australians don’t trust politicians," he said.

“Most Australians will see this as a gross breach of trust – Julia Gillard will have to live with this broken promise as long as she stays in office."