Sam Farmer's NFL picks for Week 6

By Sam Farmer

Oct 14, 2016 | 4:00 AM

Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons travel to Tampa Bay to play the Buccaneers in an NFC South Division game. (Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 48-29 (.623). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 37-40 (.481). Tampa Bay and Minnesota have the week off.

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Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 23, Jaguars 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bears by 21/2. O/U: 451/2.

The Bears are better with Brian Hoyer at QB, and Jordan Howard is an impressive young running back. The Jaguars are teeming with talent and potential, but they haven’t pulled it together.

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Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 34, Dolphins 27

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Steelers by 7 1/2. O/U: 48.

The Steelers can run and throw, and Ben Roethlisberger has a league-leading 15 touchdown passes. The Dolphins can turn up the heat on QBs, but their cornerbacks are vulnerable.

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Cincinnati (2-3) at New England (4-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 35, Bengals 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Patriots by 9. O/U: 47.

That did not look like a Bengals defense last week, when Dallas ran all over them. Tom Brady did look like himself, however, and he clearly has something he wants to prove after his suspension.

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Baltimore (3-2) at N.Y. Giants (2-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Giants 24, Ravens 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

After a 3-0 start against bad teams, the Ravens have hit the skids and switched offensive coordinators. The Giants are struggling, too, but they win this at home.

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Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Titans 27, Browns 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Titans by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Titans figure to put up some big rushing numbers in this one, and Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau always has something dialed up to give inexperienced QBs problems.

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San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 27, 49ers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Bills by 9. O/U: 44.

San Francisco could get a boost from the return of Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, but Buffalo is rolling. The Bills are at home, and their running game is hitting its stride.

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L.A. Rams (3-2) at Detroit (2-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Lions 21, Rams 17

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 44.

The Rams are still banged up along the defensive line, their tone-setting position group. That does not bode well against a Matthew Stafford-led offense that’s occasionally explosive.

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Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 24, Panthers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Panthers by 2 1/2. O/U: 53.

Unbelievably, both of these teams are already on the ropes. Cam Newton is expected back, but will he be the same as last year? The Panthers aren't getting much heat on opposing quarterbacks.

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Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 23, Redskins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

This will be a good test of what kind of rebounder Carson Wentz is. These teams are pretty evenly matched, but Philadelphia should take advantage of defensive soft spots.

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Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Raiders 28, Chiefs 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Chiefs by 1. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Chiefs got a week off after their blowout loss to Pittsburgh. They're more workmanlike than explosive on offense. The Raiders have struggled defensively, but they can score.

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Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Packers 28, Cowboys 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Packers by 3 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott has been phenomenal for the Cowboys. Still, hard to go against Aaron Rodgers at home, and at some point Prescott will play like a rookie.

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Atlanta (4-1) at Seattle (3-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Falcons 27, Seahawks 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Seahawks by 6. O/U: 45 1/2.

It is still really tough for visitors to win at Seattle, so the Seahawks have that edge. That said, the big-play Falcons have hit their stride offensively and are 3-0 away from home.

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Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Texans 34, Colts 27

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 48.

The Texans began the season with a bunch of sacks but have cooled considerably. Fortunately for them, they’re going against a porous Colts offensive line. Still, containing Andrew Luck is tough.

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N.Y. Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Cardinals 27, Jets 20

TV: ESPN

Line: Cardinals by 8. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Jets have lost three in a row and are making lots of mistakes. The Cardinals are rested, had a bounce-back win at San Francisco, are at home and get Carson Palmer back.