Mar 25, 2016 (LBO) – The lackadaisical trend from January has continued into February with the 70 percent LTV rule, significant increases in tariffs, continuing weakness in the rupee, surprising strength in the Yen and rising interest rates have retarded volumes, JB Securities said in a research note.

Vehicle registrations February 2016

Motor car registrations recorded 2,897 units in Feb marginally up from 2,888 units a month ago and significantly down from 4,138 units 12 months ago. As a point of reference the number was 10,084 units in Nov and 14,544 units in Sep last year.

Brand new segment registrations recorded 1,066 units in Feb marginally up from 1,023 units the previous month and also down from 1,920 units recorded 12 months ago.

Maruti recorded 523 units in Feb recovering from its 20-month low of 255 units recorded the previous month but still lower than 1,496 units recorded 12 months ago. As a point of reference Maruti registrations recorded 5,631 units in Nov and 8,029 units in Sep last year.

Micro registrations also crashed to 182 units in Feb from 415 units the previous month but up from 142 units 12 months ago. Tata recorded 109 units of which 62 units were Nano Twist and 33 units were Indica.

Preowned car segment registrations recorded 1,831 units in Feb marginally down from 1,863 units a month ago and significantly down from 2,218 units 12 month ago.

Toyota recorded 689 units in Feb marginally down from 709 units in Jan and Suzuki recorded 666 units in the month marginally down from 673 units in Jan. Financing share was 64.3% recovering from 62.3% the previous month but still down from the high 60s in the previous 9 months.

This category has not witnessed the same level of deceleration that many other categories have witnessed primarily due to the strong performance of two hybrid models – Nissan X Trail Hybrid and Mitsubishi Outlander Hybrid.

What is also surprising is that 97 units of Prado were registered although they may have been imported a few months ago – these vehicles currently retail around LKR 15-20 million each, 40% have been bought for cash and the balance on finance.

Suzuki Wagon R recorded 623 units marginally down from 630 units but significantly down from the record set in Sep of 1,638 units.

Toyota cars recorded 647 units marginally up from 624 units recorded the previous month but significantly down from the record set in Sep of 1,859 units – Aqua accounted for 205 units, Axio for 326 units followed by Prius accounting for 96 units.

Van registrations recorded 364 units in Feb marginally up from 360 units the previous month and 51% of the units recorded 12 months ago.

Toyota recorded 141 units in Jan significantly down from the record set in Sep of 585 units and Suzuki recorded 71 units also significantly down from the record set in Sep of 585 units. Financing share was 75%.

3-wheeler registrations recorded 2,909 units in Feb down from 3,468 units in Jan and 7,794 units 12-month ago. For brevity I will repeat what I said last month – this is the lowest monthly registration recorded in the past 5.5 years – similar low points were 3,577 units in May 2012 after the precipitous depreciation of the currency and 3,731 units in Nov 2009.

The combination of higher tariffs that increased the price of a 3-wheeler to LKR 600,000 and 70% LTV rule has increased the initial down payment to LKR 180,000 – a sum too large for most buyers.

Many 3-wheeler buyers view it as both a consumption and production asset, i.e. partly for their own use and partly to be used for hires to generate sufficient income to pay the monthly lease. Financing share recorded 84.7%.

2-wheeler registrations recorded 21,487 units in Feb marginally up from 21,397 units the previous month but down from 12-months ago of 25,155 units.

Hero that had performed exceptionally well towards the latter end of 2015 commanding a market share of over 30% has declined to 16.5%, Bajaj had regained its share to 34.1% in the month recovering from the mid-20s during the latter part of the year. Financing share increased to 60.2% one of the highest levels in the last 24 months.

Pickup truck registrations recorded 194 units in Feb down from 269 units the previous month and 518 units set 12 months ago.

Tata recorded a commanding market share of 64.9%, Mitsubishi saw a dramatic slump in demand for its L200 pickup. Financing share rebounded to 79.9% in line with its normal level.

Mini truck (payload < 1 MT) registrations were 747 units in Feb marginally down from 811 units in Jan and significantly down from 1,128 units recorded 12 months ago.

Tata the market leader recorded a share of 69.3% on lower volumes whilst Mahindra commanded a share of 26.6% a decline over 2015. Financing share remained a high 90.8%.

Lite truck (payload < 2 MT) registrations were 506 units in Feb marginally up from 504 units the previous month but up from 410 units recorded 12 months ago.

Mahindra is the market leader with a 65.8% share. Financing share remained at a high 90.7%.

Medium trucks (payload < 5 MT) registrations were 160 units in Feb similar to 159 units recorded the previous month but down from 222 units recorded 12 months ago.

Isuzu is the market leader with 38.8% followed by Mitsubishi with 18.8% and Tata with 17.5%. Financing share was a high 80.6%.

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