Ohio's grad rate to drop

Over the next couple of years, Ohio's graduation rates are going to drop.

Over the next couple of years, Ohio's graduation rates are going to drop.

The state knows this, having chosen a more-precise method to calculate the percentage of high-school graduates, starting with the Class of 2008.

To compensate for the less-attractive rates, the state is considering lowering the bar -- 90 percent of students graduating -- that it asks every high school to reach. The state said it doesn't know what the new target would be.

Lowering the goal is a bad idea, said Daria Hall, assistant director of K-12 policy for the Education Trust in Washington, D.C., an education-advocacy group.

"I wonder whether any policymaker or educator can say with a straight face that, as a goal, we want fewer than nine in 10 of our kids to get a high-school diploma," Hall said.

Of course, changing how the rate is calculated won't affect how many students have actually completed high school successfully. But graduation rates are a key way to judge schools' academic health, as a bottom-line measure of whether they are producing adults ready for college or the work force.

That's why graduation rates play a role in how schools are graded by the state and federal governments, not to mention the public. The 90-percent bar is part of the state's rating system, which labels schools based on their academic success. And schools that don't make enough progress based on federal No Child Left Behind guideposts can be forced to offer free tutoring or let students transfer to better schools.

Ohio's move is part of a national push for a standard graduation rate.

Thus far, 15 other states are using the same method. As a result, many of their graduation rates have dropped.

Indiana, for example, experienced about a 12-percentage-point drop. West Virginia's slipped by 3 points, although its previous calculation method wasn't markedly different from the new one.

Ohio Department of Education officials are struggling with the consequences of the switch here, including lower rates.

"After we get a chance to see the data, we'll know what the magnitude might be," said Matthew Cohen, the department's executive director of policy and accountability.

Officials say the new system will provide a more accurate measure of how many students complete high school in four years. In part, that's because it tracks individual students through their career instead of relying on overall numbers of freshmen and graduates four years later.

There are several ways to calculate graduation rates, and some private researchers have challenged the method Ohio's districts use.

For example, Columbus schools reported a graduation rate of 60.6 percent in 2003-04, using the state's system. But America's Promise Alliance, a group founded by former Gen. Colin Powell, will release a report on Tuesday showing that just 40.9 percent of Columbus students graduated that year.

Even among official government rates, there are discrepancies. The U.S. Department of Education, using raw data from Ohio, calculated an 81.3 percent state graduation rate in 2004, the most recent year for which it has data. Ohio says its rate that year was 85.9 percent.

The federal government uses a simpler calculation so it can compare states even if they don't collect more-complex data about students.

Ohio uses the most-common method, which creates a proportion of students who leave high school with a diploma or drop out. It's an estimate, because the state didn't track individual students' movement through grades.

Former Gov. Bob Taft was one of 50 governors who signed an agreement to use the standardized method three years ago. Gov Ted. Strickland is on board now. But many states still haven't adopted the standardized method yet.

The state Education Department now can track individual students and know whether they graduate within the expected four years, switch districts, move out of state or drop out.

And it is able to draw the line between actual seniors and fifth-year high-school students.

"We're making a very strict distinction about students who are going to graduate on time," Cohen said. "Looking backward, that's a little bit fuzzy."

Right now, the state makes no distinction between on-time graduates and students who take five years to earn a diploma. When Ohio and other states make that distinction and use the same definition of "on time," rates across the country can be compared.

Thirty states should be using it by next year, said Dane Linn, director of the education division at the National Governors Association.

"The opportunity for the governor and other state leaders is to focus on what they're going to do to get the number higher," Linn said.

Several school districts have tried to improve graduation rates, just as they've focused on raising test scores, which also determine a school's rating.