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When we talk about conference realignment, we often get
sidetracked talking about money, markets, television sets and, on
rare occasion, academics. If Rutgers is ever a draw to the
Big Ten, it's because of "the New York
market," not anything Greg Schiano has (or hasn't) accomplished.
Missouri is a draw for the SEC as much (or more) because of Kansas City
and St. Louis than their general Top 25 level of play on the
field. West Virginia would be strong in many ways for the SEC,
but that West Virginia market?

Yawn. As we continue to follow the latest on what unnamed sources
are saying and catty university presidents are doing behind
closed board room doors, let's take a look at the impact recent
goings-on will have on the football field itself. Novel concept,
eh?

Below, we're going to use an estimated five-year F/+ ratings average to measure the strength of given
schools and conferences. It is a measure of teams' performance
from the beginning of 2007 to the midway point of 2011. I posted the full list at Football Study Hall
so you can play along at home. To get our bearings, let's take a
look at the balance of power as it pertains to 2011 and the
current conference alignment.

Conference

Teams

Est. 5YR F/+

SEC

12

+10.8%

Big Ten

12

+6.0%

ACC

12

+5.9%

Big 12

10

+5.7%

Big East

8

+5.4%

Pac-12

12

+5.0%

Independents

4

+0.3%

Mountain West

8

-3.5%

Conference USA

12

-7.2%

WAC

8

-10.1%

MAC

13

-10.3%

Sun Belt

9

-12.1%

As one would expect, the SEC leads the way. Using a mean results
in both the Big 12's and Pac-12's averages suffering because of
their bottom half and the Big East's averages getting propped up
by the fact that they have no bottom half -- just a big, mushy
middle. Really, SEC aside, the power throughout the rest of BCS
country is pretty well-distributed.

Within the conferences themselves, however, there is still an
interesting distribution of haves and have-nots.

Conference (Division)

Teams

Est. 5YR F/+

SEC (West)

6

+13.1%

SEC (East)

6

+8.6%

Big Ten (Leaders)

6

+7.7%

ACC (Coastal)

6

+6.3%

ACC (Atlantic)

6

+5.6%

Pac-12 (South)

6

+5.3%

Pac-12 (North)

6

+4.7%

Big Ten (Legends)

6

+4.3%

Conference USA (East)

6

-6.7%

Conference USA (West)

6

-7.6%

MAC (West)

7

-9.2%

MAC (East)

6

-11.5%

Right now, the SEC West is just ridiculous, but the East is still
stronger, top to bottom, than any other conference or division.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten Leaders division (the one with Ohio State
and Wisconsin) is rather rugged itself, with three teams in the
five-year Top 13.

So that's where we currently stand. Now let's take a look at what
is about to happen.

What Has Happened, And What's Probably About To
Happen?

So far, we know the following things are going to happen at
different points in the near future:

1. Texas A&M is moving to the SEC.

2. Pittsburgh and Syracuse are moving to the ACC.

3. TCU is moving to the Big 12.

4. The Conference USA and Mountain West are joining forces to
form a coast-to-coast, football-only conference. For the purposes
below, we are going to call it the Mountain USA conference.

We also think we know a couple more things are about to
happen:

5. Missouri is close to applying for SEC membership.

6. The Big East is evidently close to inviting Boise State,
Air Force, SMU, Houston, Navy and Central Florida.

The last two items are obviously not guaranteed, but they are far
enough up the rumor food chain that we are going to treat them as
reality for the time being.

So now what has happened to college football's balance
of power? For the purposes below, we are going to 1) assume that
Missouri does indeed end up in the SEC East as rumored, 2) call
the CUSA-MWC merger the "Mountain West" and 3) assume that the
Big East will be broken into a West Division (Boise State,
Cincinnati, Houston, Air Force, Louisville, SMU) and an East
Division (West Virginia, South Florida, UConn, Rutgers, UCF and
Navy). Because what's more fun than the thought of a Big East
West?

Conference

Teams

Est. 5YR F/+

SEC

14

+10.4%

Big 12

9

+6.6%

Big Ten

12

+6.0%

ACC

14

+5.3%

Pac-12

12

+5.0%

Big East

12

+4.9%

Independents

3

+0.3%

Mountain USA

17

-9.4%

MAC

13

-10.3%

Sun Belt

9

-12.1%

WAC

5

-14.6%

Virtually anybody the SEC could add is going to hurt their
overall numbers, but the addition of Missouri (+11.2% F/+ rating
over the last five years, 23rd overall) offsets the addition of
Texas A&M (+4.3%, 44th) to a degree. (Remember: A&M had
been quite mediocre for a while before the second half of last
season.) Of the normal list of SEC expansion candidates, only the
addition of West Virginia (or, technically, Clemson) could prop
up the SEC's averages better than the addition of Missouri.

So losing A&M and Missouri and replacing them with a Top 10
program in TCU boosts the Big 12's overall numbers, and the
addition of the Syracuse anchor bumps the ACC down a bit.

Not surprisingly, the Big East's numbers fall simply because
Boise State (fourth) cannot offset the poor (for BCS programs)
numbers of SMU (75th), Air Force (61st) and Navy (59th). Still,
we've still got something of a cluster after the SEC.

And with the worst Conference USA (No. 117 Memphis, No. 114
Tulane) and Mountain West (No. 113 UNLV, No. 111 New
Mexico) programs dragging the "Mountain USA" down, their numbers
are pretty awful. The four best programs in the new Mountain
West: No. 54 Southern Miss, No. 56 Tulsa, No. 62 Nevada and No.
71 Hawaii. Even with Boise State, Houston and company,
this is not a BCS conference.

What Might Happen Next?

If Missouri heads to the SEC, then we know the Big 12 is not
done. That conference's actions highlight what might happen next
with conference realignment. The below steps are complete "What
if" guesses. They are not predictions, but they are scenarios
that have been reported, rumored and speculated.

1. The Big 12 adds BYU, Louisville and West Virginia. There is a
good chance that the conference stops at 10 teams. (At last
glance, that was, after all, what Texas wanted.) And rumors
continue to oscillate regarding whether BYU is viable, or whether
the conference looks at either UL or WVU with Bid No. 10. For
these purposes, we'll just say they all go and recreate
the Big 12 North (No. 12 West Virginia, No. 39 BYU, No. 64
Louisville, No. 69 Kansas State, No. 74 Kansas and No. 95 Iowa
State) while the Big 12 South (No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 8 TCU, No. 14
Texas, No. 15 Oklahoma State, No. 38 Texas Tech, No. 68 Baylor)
becomes the toughest division in college football.

2. The ACC adds Connecticut and a freaked-out Notre Dame. This
is, of course, even less likely than the Big 12 going to 12 teams
again, but here's where I break out the words "thought exercise"
again. This move would, among other things, allow the ACC to move
to actual, geographically sensible, and competitively even,
divisions: the North (Boston College, Connecticut, Maryland,
Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech) and the South
(Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North
Carolina, N.C. State and Wake Forest).

3. To fill in the gaps, the Big East sucks it up and grabs
Memphis, East Carolina and (for the purposes of eliminating
independence altogether) Army. They have now replaced No. 12 West
Virginia with No. 108 Army and No. 117 Memphis. Meanwhile, the
Mountain USA adds Utah State simply to get to an even 16 teams.

Conference

Teams

Est. 5YR F/+

SEC

14

+10.4%

Big 12

12

+6.7%

Big Ten

12

+6.0%

ACC

16

+5.5%

Pac-12

12

+5.0%

Big East

12

+0.5%

Mountain USA

16

-9.5%

MAC

13

-10.3%

Sun Belt

9

-12.1%

WAC

4

-15.4%

One can see why the Big East has been hoping against hope that
Missouri will stay put in the Big 12. With the moves they are
expected to make this week, they are actually a semi-viable
football conference. If Missouri leaves and the Big 12 adds BYU,
then the Big East lives on. But if the Big 12 manages to poach
West Virginia, then the Big East's averages plummet. These moves
basically result in the Big East becoming the Mountain West and
the Mountain West becoming Conference USA.

The Big 12 is now a combination of, basically, the SEC West and
the Big East West, which is fun and not altogether unfamiliar.
Meanwhile, Missouri going to the SEC East bumps up that division
a bit, the ACC is evenly split.

In terms of five-year averages, the major remaining players here
are easy to spot: No. 4 Boise State, No. 12 West Virginia and
until it's official, No. 23 Missouri. Virtually all of the other
potential moves would either be of the water-treading or
sacrificing-quality-for-stability varieties. In the end, it is
indeed all about money and markets, but those of us who enjoy
watching high-quality matchups also have plenty of reason to be
interested in the current goings-on, even if they result in
conference "rivalries" like Missouri-Georgia, Boise State-South
Florida and, of course, Marshall-New Mexico.