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Recent Findings from University of Central Florida Provides New Insights into Risk Management (Analysis and comparison of safety models using average…

Insurance Weekly News

Recent Findings from University of Central Florida Provides New Insights into Risk Management (Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- A new study on Risk Management is now available. According to news reporting originating from Orlando, Florida, by VerticalNews correspondents, research stated, "There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies."

Financial supporters for this research include SAFER-SIM UTC, US Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Southeastern Transportation Center (STC).

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from the University of Central Florida, "First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson -lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency."

For more information on this research see: Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2018;111():271-279. Accident Analysis and Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis and Prevention - www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

The news editors report that additional information may be obtained by contacting L. Wang, University of Central Florida, Dept. of Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816, United States. Additional authors for this research include M. Abdel-Aty, X.S. Wang and R.J. Yu.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.12.007. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Keywords for this news article include: Orlando, Florida, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, University of Central Florida.

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