July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Fourth of July beach outings from New
England to North Carolina are threatened with rain while
fireworks might be hidden by clouds as a line of storms from the
west meets Tropical Storm Arthur sweeping up from the south.

Storm Arthur, which is moving up the East Coast and may
scrape North Carolina as a hurricane, is expected to block a
cold front from the west, bringing rain, thunderstorms and the
threat of flooding, the U.S. Weather Prediction Center said.

As Arthur passes, the front will be able to move, and New
York City’s weather should start improving in time for the 35th
Macy’s fireworks show July 4. About half an inch (1.3
centimeters) of rain will fall in the city, according to the
National Weather Service. The record for the date was 1.76
inches in 1981.

“In a nutshell, it will be wet Thursday and Friday and
sunny and nice on Saturday,” said Jeffrey Tongue, a weather
Service meteorologist in Upton, New York. “I don’t know if it’s
hope or optimism that for the fireworks in New York the rain
will be out to the east by then.”

Most of the East Coast’s foul weather will come from the
front Arthur will block as it moves up the coast. The Fourth of
July holiday is traditionally a day of barbecues, beach outings
and fireworks displays in cities including New York, Boston and
Washington.

Travel Estimate

AAA projected July 26 that 41 million Americans would
travel at least 50 miles over the holiday, 34.8 million of the
travelers by car, the most since 2007. The nation’s largest
motoring group defines the Independence Day weekend as running
from today through July 6.

The Cross Sound Ferry between Connecticut and Long Island
canceled trips out of New London and Orient Point for tomorrow,
according to the company’s website.

Severe thunderstorms may break out starting today across
the mountains from Maine to North Carolina as the front moves in
and rain will spread across much of the region tomorrow, said
the Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.

Flash flooding from thunderstorms and rain is possible
tomorrow from southern New Jersey into Virginia, the center
said.

“That cold front is trying to move through and it can’t
move through until the tropical storm moves by,” said Rob
Carolan, owner of Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New
Hampshire.

Outer Banks

North Carolina’s Outer Banks may be the only part of the
coast that takes a direct hit from Arthur, according to the U.S.
National Hurricane Center. The west side of the storm may scrape
Dare County, where as many as 300,000 people are expected to be
vacationing.

County officials met yesterday to discuss the storm and
will decide today if evacuations are needed.

“Unless there’s a forced evacuation, I’m going to stay and
enjoy the best weather that you ever get at the beach, which is
the day after the hurricane,” said Paul Equale, president of
the Washington-based public affairs consulting firm Equale &
Associates, who has been at his beach house in Duck, North
Carolina, in Dare County. “For some reason the storm blows
through and what comes behind is just spectacular weather. It’s
like a ‘Twilight Zone’ episode because no one’s here except you
and that beautiful weather.”

Alerts Posted

Hurricane watches and warnings were issued for coastal
North Carolina and tropical storm watches were posted from South
Carolina to Virginia.

Carolan said Arthur is a lopsided storm with most of its
power on its northern and eastern side. If the storm tracks as
forecast, only its weakest side will touch the North Carolina
coast.

Timing and location will determine the quality of weather
on the Fourth of July, he said. The farther south and west, the
nicer the weather, Carolan said.

New York will have rain during the day on July 4 with the
possibility of improving conditions as the day goes on, Tongue
said. The Macy’s fireworks show begins at 9 p.m.

“The rain should be ending by Friday from west to east,”
Tongue said. Montauk on eastern Long Island will be the last to
clear, he said.

Macy’s Outlook

Macy’s will make the final call on its fireworks show based
on actual conditions July 4, said Orlando Veras, spokesman for
the company.

“Macy’s fireworks can take place in the rain, as they have
on numerous occasions in the past,” Veras said in an e-mail
interview. “In the event there is severe weather such as
lightning, we will work closely with our city agency partners to
determine what steps to take, including delaying the launch of
the display.”

Washington’s conditions will probably improve earlier than
New York’s, Carolan said. As the storm passes, it will pull
cooler and drier air in behind it, so by the time fireworks
start there temperatures may be in the 60s Fahrenheit (upper
teens Celsius) under clearing skies.

Boston, farther to the north and east, will have showers
linger longer, Carolan said. The concert by the Boston Pops and
the fireworks show scheduled for July 4 was moved up to
tomorrow.

Boston Plans

Massachusetts law forbids fireworks if winds reach or
exceed 20 mph, said Steve MacDonald, spokesman for B4
Productions, which runs the Boston show and concert.’

The weather service said there is a 60 percent chance of
gusty thunderstorms in Boston on the Fourth.

On Cape Cod, the part of Massachusetts that juts out into
the Atlantic, the popular tourist destination is expected to
deal with tropical storm conditions through July 5, according to
the weather service.

The Elizabethan Inn, a 78-room hotel on Roanoke Island,
North Carolina, was full for the holiday weekend before guests
started getting nervous and calling to cancel today, said
Suriksha Bhula, assistant manager.

The last time the inn saw a large number of cancellations
was in 2012 during Hurricane Sandy. State ferry crews stayed at
the hotel from when the storm hit in October until Christmas.

Nice Weekend

For most of the eastern U.S., July 5 will dawn as a nice
day and conditions will improve through the rest of the weekend,
Carolan said.

Arthur probably won’t damp fuel demand over the July 4
holiday, Michael Green, a spokesman for the Heathrow, Florida-based automobile club AAA, said by telephone from Washington.

“A little rain isn’t going to keep people from going on
their trips,” Green said. “You might see a little less
driving, but probably not enough to make a huge difference in
fuel demand.”