THE FIFTH DOWN; A.F.C. Scouting Report: East

By JUDY BATTISTA

Published: September 2, 2012

PLAYER TO WATCH Tim Tebow? Fine. If Tebow, the cultural lightning rod, eventually becomes the Jets' starting quarterback, watch the soap opera to follow. In the meantime, can Mario Williams and the rest of Buffalo's defensive line do enough to slow New England?

GAME TO WATCH Jets at New England, Oct. 21. The Patriots are the Jets' true barometer. If the Jets start slowly, their first meeting of the season could be the tipping point for quarterback chaos.

UNTIL TOM BRADY AND BILL BELICHICK retire, the only question is how deep the New England Patriots can go in the playoffs. They will be helped by one of the easiest schedules in the league, including just four games against 2011 playoff teams, all but one (at Baltimore) at home. Even more important: Belichick spent the off-season making the defense, ranked 31st last year, faster, drafting two players, the pass rusher Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont'a Hightower, who should have an immediate impact. Even a mild defensive improvement will relieve some of the burden on the offense, which can still outscore pretty much everybody. The terrifying tight end tandem of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is in Year 3 of giving defensive coordinators nightmares, and the Patriots brought in receiver Brandon Lloyd to stretch the field, opening even more space for Wes Welker and the tight ends. The weakness is the offensive line, where left tackle Matt Light has retired and injuries have bedeviled most of the rest of the projected starters, exposing Brady to far too many hits in the preseason. Still, if that's as big as the Patriots' problems get this season, they are the favorite to get another crack at their fourth title.

The Buffalo Bills and the Jets will battle for second place, and perhaps a wild-card spot, and who gets it is a tossup. Each team will rely largely on its defense, and Buffalo did the most to improve there, acquiring defensive ends Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, giving them arguably the best defensive line in the conference, if not the league. The two teams also have distinct shortcomings on offense. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick the quarterback who led the Bills to a 5-2 start last season, or the one who looked as if he had been decoded by opposing defenses in the second half? Do the Bills have enough threats beyond Stevie Johnson?

What was it, exactly, that the Jets were so secretive about with the Wildcat, and will it matter as the Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow experiment plays out behind abysmal pass protection and with a thin, injury-riddled receiving corps, and with a mediocre running game? The Jets do drama like no other team, and the preseason did nothing to dispel the idea that Buffalo could slip past them in the division.

The good news is that the early returns on the Miami Dolphins' rookie quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, are somewhat promising. The bad news is that the Dolphins, because of David Garrard's knee surgery, are forced to play Tannehill immediately and have little in the way of pass-catching talent or offensive line protection, setting him up for a difficult season. So Miami will have to hope that a solid defense making the switch to the 4-3 - made less solid, though, by the trade of cornerback Vontae Davis to the Colts - can keep it in games and that Tannehill can make a few plays. The Davis trade, though, is the latest indicator of the rebuilding still ahead, and that is not enough to make inroads in a tough division this year.

This is a more complete version of the story than the one that appeared in print.