Tribes Watch and Wait After Karzai Brother's Killing

By ALISSA J. RUBIN

Published: July 26, 2011

KARZ, Afghanistan -- The marble grave of the Afghan president's half brother, assassinated two weeks ago by one of his own men, lies in this scruffy village that is near Kandahar and bears the family name. The white stone has a quiet to it that stands in stark contrast to the din he left behind.

Ahmed Wali Karzai's killing put the region's spoils up for grabs, and the tribal elite of Kandahar are watching, waiting, and above all, calculating their next move. They all want a piece of the future, and among them are strong men with guns.

Kandahar, the onetime capital of the country, is Afghanistan's center of gravity and the Taliban's heartland, deep in the south, where insurgents once penetrated most completely.

''Ahmed Wali Karzai was a lid for Kandahar; he contained it,'' said Haji Agha Lalai, a tribal leader. He was a political enforcer for his brother; a kind of C.E.O. of vast economic and smuggling enterprises; go-to man for the Americans; and a bulwark against the insurgency.

He wielded power, tribal leaders can now say, with a Machiavellian ability that made many elders chafe. They say they are unlikely to tolerate that again.

With President Hamid Karzai's family split by rivalries and the brother he appointed to succeed Ahmed Wali as leader of the Populzai tribe seen as weak, elders predict that the family's, and by extension the president's, power in the south is waning. All the possible successors to Ahmed Wali as de facto leader in Kandahar are seen as flawed, suggesting that greater uncertainty and insecurity lie ahead in the scramble to control a rich prize.

Kandahar is the only major city in a rural region dominated by the lucrative poppy trade that supplies the world with most of its opium. Billions of dollars have poured in from American military for security contracts, and billions more from United States and British foreign aid programs. A brisk smuggling trade to and from Pakistan to circumvent Afghan customs yields large payouts to corrupt officials.

The Karzai family's loyalty to the president has begun to fracture openly, with fights over money as one motive. ''I completely disagree with President Karzai on all levels, on the military side, on security and on economics; we are completely at odds,'' said Mahmoud Karzai. He cited his brother's handling of Kabul Bank, in which Mahmoud Karzai was a shareholder and had borrowed more than $22 million from the bank, according to an Afghan anticorruption office report.

The bank was put into receivership after the discovery that it had more than $850 million in bad loans, effectively cutting off the supply of cash to Mahmoud Karzai and other politically connected borrowers. Mahmoud Karzai said he had wanted a plan drawn up for shareholders and borrowers to repay the bank.

Hashmat Karzai, a powerful cousin in Kandahar, has also been battling President Karzai over the outcome of the election from which he was disqualified after accusations of fraud.

Several contenders for provincial governor are outside the family. Among them is Gul Agha Shirzai, a former governor of Kandahar and current governor of Jalalabad. He has a reputation for promoting economic development and for demanding a share of every contract. When he was last in Kandahar, he rewarded members of his own tribe. He fought against people he labeled Taliban, but many of them claim they were wrongly identified, intensifying resentment of the government, tribal elders said.

Another possibility is the current mayor, Ghulam Haider Hamidi, who was close to Ahmed Wali, but whom many Kandaharis describe as distant because he spent many years in the United States. There is also Arif Noorzai, Ahmed Wali's brother-in-law, who is often described as having links to drug smugglers and ties to the same private security industry that enriched many close to Ahmed Wali, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War, a nonpartisan policy research group.

Tribal elders complained Ahmed Wali bypassed them in favor of junior members and did not seek their counsel. ''He did it to all the tribes, and instability and resentment is the result,'' said Haji Mohammed Ehsan, a member of the provincial council and a member of the Noorzai tribe.

While Ahmed Wali was in power, however, his tactics worked. His home was crowded with people who came from Kandahar and neighboring provinces to seek his counsel or ask for favors. His ability to maneuver among them maintained an uneasy equilibrium, albeit one pockmarked by violence. Although attacks by suicide bombers and armed gunmen still took place, he helped the Americans go after the Taliban, effectively eliminating their safe havens in rural districts, although not yet their presence.

One senior American official who formerly worked in Afghanistan described him as a ''guy we could always go to and get things done.'' The official requested anonymity because of the delicacy of the situation. The price was allowing him great influence over security contracts in the area.

No American diplomats would speak for this article.

''Most of the people feel relief that he's gone, even in his own tribe,'' said Mohammed Satai, a local elder. ''Any construction, whether Afghan or foreigner, if they didn't give him a share, he wouldn't let them work here.''

A former director of education for the province, Hayatullah Rafiqi, said he had been pressured by Ahmed Wali to hire specific people for jobs as principals at schools. When he refused he was detained and prosecutors asked him to write down the name of every school in the province -- there are more than 300. Ultimately, he said, he was released and forced into retirement.

Of more than a dozen people interviewed, only members of the Karzai family believed that Shah Wali Karzai, anointed by President Karzai as the new head of his Populzai tribe, will be able to take his brother's place. Shah Wali, did not respond to requests through his brother Mahmoud Karzai to meet with The New York Times.

Kandahar elders describe Shah Wali in generally positive terms. The mayor, Mr. Hamidi, recalled asking Ahmed Wali to release someone who had been arrested as a Taliban. Ahmed Wali warned that it was not a good idea, but agreed to mayor's request. The man later returned to the Taliban, the mayor said. ''I believe Shah Wali would not have accepted my request,'' he said.

Mahmoud Karzai said politics was not his brother's first choice. ''He doesn't know every one yet but very soon he will,'' he said.

While few of the choices seem appealing, many Kandaharis believe they do need a unifying force. ''Any person from any of the districts would come with his problem and go to Ahmed Wali Khan and Ahmed Wali Khan's door was open,'' said Ustad Abdul Halim, a leader of the Noorzai tribe, one of the strongest in Kandahar. ''Now the people have lost the door so they are looking until they find a new door.''

PHOTOS: Workers build a permanent grave for Ahmed Wali Karzai, whose assassination on July 12 left a power vacuum in the strategic Kandahar region.; ''I completely disagree with President Karzai on all levels, on the military side, on security and on economics,'' his brother Mahmoud Karzai says. (A4); One possible successor to Ahmed Wali Karzai is Ghulam Haider Hamidi, center facing the camera, the mayor of Kandahar. (PHOTOGRAPHS BY LYNSEY ADDARIO FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES) (A10)