Bills Playoff ScenariosTeam has next to no chance of making the playoffsby Scott Brown
December 17, 2002
Looking for a mathematical probability of the Bills making the playoffs? Here are the scenarios where the Bills would grab the wildcard. All hinge upon Buffalo winning its last two games.
The probability of the Bills making the playoffs is 15.4% * 78.8% * 16.5% = 2.00%
That assumes they win their last two. Factoring in their probability of winning the last two their probability is 0.42%.AFC East - Total Probability (15.4%)
One of two scenarios must occur:
1) New England loses their last two games and Jets lose to Green Bay. (Miami wins division, Buffalo wins wild card) (11.44%)
2) Miami loses their last two games, New England loses to the Jets, and Jets lose to Green Bay. (New England wins tiebreak for division, Buffalo would win tiebreak for wild card over Miami.) (3.93%)