Keep in mind, Freddy Sanchez plays second base for the Giants, which means plenty of chances to look up and see " Theriot -- 2B" penciled into the lineup. All in all, not a bad move. Thank you, Orlando Cabrera for retiring and making it possible. With the Clay Hensley signing (which I missed yesterday), the Giants' 40-man roster is now topped up. They'll have to ditch someone to add someone. Hensley could well be the ditchee; his $750,000 contract is also non-guaranteed.

This deal shows that Lincecum is saying that unless the Giants start building an offense that matches his talents, he won’t be a Giant once he reaches free agency. Another two seasons of winning 13 games instead of 20, of seven starts without a single run to work with, of losing four 1-0 games…. these things are not acceptable to him, and if they continue, he will become a Yankee.

Tim already has two World Series victories. Let's have a look at the all-time list --

This is a mind-blowing stat about Ford -- he started the first game of the World Series EIGHT times. One of the odder things about the 1960 Series was that Casey Stengel held back Ford until Game 3, which he won. He then won Game 6 but wasn't available for Game 7, which the Pirates won 10-9 on the epic Mazeroski homer. Ford was upset over Stengel's decision and felt that the Yanks would have won the Series had he been able to pitch in Games 1, 4 and 7. Hard to argue with him about that -- and Stengel got fired after that season. During Stengel's tenure from 1949 to 1960, the Yankees won 10 pennants and seven World Series.

Ford was a rookie in 1950 and missed the next two seasons due to the Korean War. He was the best pitcher on the best team in baseball for next decade and picked up rings in 1950 (when he won the last game at the age of 21), 1953, 1956, 1958, 1961 and 1962.

I have no idea if Tim Lincecum has ever heard of Whitey Ford but I wouldn't be surprised if he had.

Eddie had only 94 HRs in 12 seasons -- including 25 in six seasons in the Orange and Black -- and he hit over half of them in those 3 seasons on what were pretty terrible Bosox teams. My impression just looking at the jump in performance in 1962-64, at ages 30 to 32, is that he must have been a pretty smart player to figure out how to hit that effectively in Fenway. He later coached in the minors and scouted for the Angels.

"Lincecum is taking all the risk"

Lincecum is taking all the risk by going short on years (if accepting $40.5 million is considered “risky”). Pitchers get arm trouble, and though Lincecum’s health has not been an issue, he is mortal. He is bypassing the security of a longer deal in return for a potentially bigger payday down the road. If reports are true, Matt Cain is taking the opposite tack. He’s willing to accept a below-market, long-term deal in exchange for that security and stability. I’m told no deal is imminent with Cain.

The Giants’ risk on Lincecum is low. They are not saddled with a potentially crippling pitcher contract, and the worst that can happen is Lincecum walks in 2014 and the Giants have $25 million to spend elsewhere.

That said, the Giants should have plenty of money to play ball with Lincecum the free agent in 2014. Even if he and Cain consume $50 million of what should, by then, be a $140 million payroll (that no longer includes Barry Zito’s contract), they can build a pretty good team with the rest of the $90 million, particularly if younger players such as Brandon Belt, Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Kyle Crick, etc… pan out. They will be paid peanuts until they hit arbitration down the road.

Tim takes over from Barry Zito

Tim's signing a 2-year deal for just over $40 mil. This isn't a surprise at all. What it means is that Barry Zito no longer has the top salary on the Giants. Here's what the SF Chron's beat writer just tweeted --

Monday, January 23, 2012

Blocking Belt

For me, the most frustrating aspect of the off-season has been that the Giants didn't really address their dire need for more offense because --

1. they didn't upgrade at shortstop, where Brandon Crawford hasn't shown an ability to hit MLB pitching2. they've gotten into a situation where Brandon Belt -- their best hope for an improved offense -- is probably going to be blocked from playing as long as Huff, Pagan, Melky Cabrera and Shierholtz don’t completely stink.

-- A team with hopes of contending, a steady stream of revenue, and a dire need to improve its offense passed on Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Beltran. In fact, their only offensive additions consisted of Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera, both of whom were acquired via trade, and both of whom are set to hit free agency after this season.

-- on an individual basis, the moves to retain Lopez and Affeldt aren’t all that bad. As a whole, however, especially as it pertains to the Giants’ needs and budgetary constraints, this was not terribly prudent allocation of money. The $5M that went to Affeldt would have been better spent on a dire need (i.e. a hitter).

-- The Melky Cabrera acquisition, on the other hand, might be the worst move of the offseason. The Giants are paying Melky $6M, which is a bit more than I was expecting. Jonathan Sanchez, in comparison, is getting $5.6M. Basically, the Giants didn’t save any money in making this trade. In retrospect, they essentially had the choice between $6M and Melky Cabrera, and they chose the latter.

I imagine the justification for this move is as follows: they needed a centerfielder, and they didn’t see Andres Torres as a suitable option. They otherwise would have non-tendered Jonathan Sanchez, so this way, at least they filled a position of need by ridding themselves of a wild southpaw. The problem, however, is two-fold: firstly, Cabrera was not all that more appealing an option than Andres Torres, if at all, despite a much better 2011. Secondly, the move was rendered pointless when the Giants went out and got Angel Pagan to play centerfield. Now they’re stuck with a relatively expensive player who — either directly or indirectly — is blocking Brandon Belt.

-- the outfield is now occupied: Nate Schierholtz in right field, Angel Pagan in center, and Melky Cabrera in left. Had the Giants never acquired Melky, there would be room for Belt. In fact, over a full season, Belt probably brings more value to the team than Melky. Few players on the roster have as much potential to improve the offense as he does*. So in effect, the Melky trade: cost the Giants $6M, did little or nothing to improve their team (as it pertains to how the players will likely be utilized), and blocked Brandon Belt, who was already yo-yoed between Fresno and the majors throughout 2011.

But this post is about Lincecum, who will probably make more than Zito does this year. Of the 10 games that James mentions, Tim went 4-6. That, ladies and gentlemen, is crappy offensive support.

Last year's season opener was No. 32 on the James list. What he doesn't say is that this game really set the tone for the rest of the season. During the late innings, of course, Bryan Stow was getting attacked by psychos in the parking lot --

The first of four pitchers' duels between the two studs. The Dodgers got a run in the sixth on errors by Miguel Tejada and Buster Posey. Bullpens exchanged runs in their last at-bats. Dodgers 2, Giants 1; snakebite loss for Lincecum.

Lincecum and Kershaw matched up four times in 2011, Kershaw winning all four contests, all four of them tremendous duels. In the four games Lincecum pitched 29 innings with a 1.24 ERA, but an 0-4 record. Kershaw was 4-0, pitched 30.1 innings with a 0.30 ERA.

No wonder he looks so happy in this card. He got paid $22 million by the Angels from 2005 through 2007 and racked up WARs of 2.9 in 2005, 2.3 in 2006 and had the best year of his career in 2007 with a 3.8 WAR.

The Giants did not have to sign him for longer than a year. But they bought his three arbitration years with salaries of $3.2 million for the coming season, $5.7 million in 2013 and $8.25 million in 2014 - a bargain if he can replicate his 2009 and 2011 seasons.

The Giants know what Sandoval looks like 3 1/2 months after the final out of 2011. They put him through a physical before completing the deal. "I think we've seen Pablo's commitment grow," Bobby Evans, Giants vice president of player personnel, said. "He's still very young in the game and young in his potential. With time, I think he'll continue to prosper as he continues to find a balance of priority in his conditioning. We see a commitment. We know that Pablo understands there are still challenges that he is facing and will continue to face, yet this is a confidence that we have in him that he's going to do everything possible to earn that contract and the next one."

Memories of Mays

I saw Mays play a lot. My father and I were in the moderate crowd at the Polo Grounds in May 1951 when Willie played his first game for the Giants. My father was only a mild baseball fan, although he told me his favorite ballplayer when he was a kid in New York back at the beginning of the 20th century was a bearded outfielder for the Giants named George Van Haltren, which indicates a certain degree of baseball intensity. In any case he and I drove down from Tuckahoe to the Polo Grounds, bought tickets (which you could do then) and sat in the lower stands between home and first base. Willie had broken in a few days earlier in Philadelphia where he went 0 for 12 in three games. He was batting third which if it seems a high spot for a brand-new rookie seemed a proper spot to take a look at a rookie who had been batting something like .477 in the minors.

The top of the first took some of the fun out of the game right away. Warren Spahn was pitching for the Boston Braves and in the top of the first Bob Elliott hit a three-run homer for Boston, which took a lot of the starch out of the Giant fans. If Spahn was on, and had a three-run lead already, we didn’t have a prayer. Spahn set the first two Giants down in order and here came Willie, our fabulous new rookie. I forget what the count went to — a ball and a strike, something like that. Spahn threw the next pitch and Willie hit it on a line high and deep to left center field. I cannot recall if it hit the wooden façade high in left field or went over the roof and out of the park. All I remember is the electric excitement that shot through the park at the sound and sight of our precious rookie in his first at-bat in New York hitting a tremendous home run off the great Spahn. “He’s real!” was the feeling. “He’s real!”

Rory Paap is particularly enthused about Brown -- It’s probabaly foolish and wishful thinking that I’m fairly optimistic about the Giants’ system–which is frankly pretty thin–but I am. Fittingly, there’s no player on this list or any other that I’m more excited about than Gary Brown. I cannot wait to see what he does with the daunting challenge that Double-A will be for him in 2012. I hope he’s up for it. I think he is.

With the exception of Torres’ remarkable 2010 season, the Giants have not had a quality center fielder or a legitimate leadoff hitter since Kenny Lofton, and he came only for one half of a (nearly triumphant) season to patch up the Shinjo-Calvin Murray debacle. That’s 10 seasons. Gary Brown, if all goes to plan, is the answer to a painful, decade-long problem. He puts the demons of Dave Roberts to bed.

Brown is lightning fast, has excellent contact skills with a surprising amount of pop (14 home runs, .519 SLG in San Jose), and his absolute floor as a defender in a premium position is probably around average. If he can polish up his outfield instincts and continue to draw walks and get on base at a respectable rate, he’s going to be a very useful player with more star potential than Panik. And finally, I can confirm that he’s nothing like Aaron Rowand, the only exceptions being their Fullerton alumni status and a penchant for being hit by pitches. And that particular skill might well prove to be pretty handy given how dangerous Brown ought to be on the paths.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Belt = Maris?

This isn't to suggest that Brandon Belt is the second coming of Roger Maris. Not necessarily, anyway. But in wondering just how this young left-handed slugger might (or might not) develop over the coming years, we have one highly intriguing comp with a famous left-handed slugger of long ago, just staring us in the face.I remember the and 1958 and 1961 seasons vividly, mostly because the Giants contended until the last week or so of both of them. For the life of me, I couldn't understand why Roger Maris engendered so much negative reaction in 1961. He seemed like a completely decent guy to my 9-year-old mind.

.609 in 2004

Jeff Sullivan at Baseball Nation has posted "An Incomplete Collection of Barry Bonds Fun Facts," including this stunner -- Barry Bonds had an OBP of .609 in 2004! Over a full season! Joe Carter had a career OBP of .306! Barry Bonds' OBP in 2004 was twice Joe Carter's OBP in his career!And here's a pretty good list from Baseball Reference...

Trying to determine how an A's-Giants resolution might look is difficult. The most obvious template is the settlement received by Baltimore Orioles owner Peter Angelos when the Montreal Expos were moved to within 40 miles of Angelos' franchise and became the Washington Nationals. As compensation, Angelos received guarantees from MLB on ticket revenue and franchise value.

Angelos was asked Thursday if he sees any parallels between that and the A's-Giants state of affairs.

"I don't have much knowledge about the situation," Angelos said. "But I wish them both luck."

John Bowker was, for a weekend or so, the slugger of the future. Then he struggled so badly that he was removed from the 2008 Giants' lineup. That was … hard to do. After returning to the minors, he put up a fantastic 2009 season in AAA, even by Pacific Coast League standards. He hit for average (.342) and changed his approach at the plate, leading to more walks (.451 OBP). He had 47 extra-base hits in 366 at-bats.

And he couldn't hit a breaking ball if he stood in front of home plate with the lid of a garbage can. But now we're ahead of ourselves.

At the same time he was demolishing Fresno, the Giants' right fielder was having an abysmal season, as was the entire team....

He's one-man shorthand for the nuttiness of Giants baseball, and why we love and hate it so.

"For Jan. 9, he's doing pretty well"

I'd have to say this is the best news of the offseason so far for Giants fans -- Buster is now doing sprints of 30 and 60 yards. Fingers crossed and let's hope Dingbat Psycho Scott Cousins doesn't get a deal anywhere.

Various injuries limited Sanchez, 34, to 111 games in 2009 and '10 and 60 games last year. If there's anything positive about this, it's that he has learned to pace himself and maintain patience as he rehabilitates. "Obviously you want it to go easier," said Sanchez, a .297 lifetime hitter who's penciled in to bat second in manager Bruce Bochy's lineup. "You still want to hurry up and rush things. But having gone through it, I know that I'm a lot further than I was last year or the year before."

Such an interesting character for such a soft-spoken guy. When they stick the mike in his face he is generally dull and relies on the usual ballplayer platitudes ("Eli called a great game and the guys made some great plays.") At the same time, he's the player rep. He must be reasonably smart and articulate to fulfill that role. Being the longest-tenured Giant I imagine gives him some gravitas and trustworthiness beyond his age (a mere 27). Alabama-born and Tennessee-bred Cain makes his home and is raising his family in San Francisco. How many Giants can say that? Matt lent his voice to the "It Gets Better" campaign (Bravo, Giants). He makes little or no off-season noise, generates no controversy, and always seems to be there when the Giants do some community thing. I think I remember him getting ticked off at one of the Hairston brothers in a ball game, but that's about it. Maybe there was a Dodger game or two where he showed some emotion, I forget. The point is that this guy is so stoic and self-contained as to be almost boring. And he's so consistent and steady when he performs that you don't really appreciate how good he is until the season is over and he's racked up another 200+ innings of first-rate pitching. He has to be taken as a whole. Tim Lincecum is exciting just to watch--the freaky delivery, the chance of a dozen strikeouts, and that ridiculous pitch they flail at every week. Pablo Sandoval is so weird and full of quirks, has outsized emotions, and hits doubles off his shoe tops. Buster Posey makes it looks so easy and was born to speak to a room full of reporters. It isn't hard to imagine him as a manager some day. Brandon Belt looks like he's still a kid and sometimes plays like one. Not Matt. He's been the same from the day he debuted and spent every season getting a little better at doing the same thing over and over again, namely throwing strikes and getting outs. You hear ballplayers talk about "keeping it simple." Look no further than no. 18! I expect more of the same for 2012.

In other words, he's consistently inconsistent. Had he put up the seasons of 2003, 2004, 2008 and 2010 in the other years, he would have been a potential Hall of Famer. Maybe all the Pilates will help.

Will retired pretty early at age 36 to spend more time with his son with autism. Julian makes a strong case --

Clark only played 15 seasons, so he didn’t stick around long enough to compile great counting stats. Additionally, he’s hurt without attention to context. His peak years occurred from 1987 to 1992, during which time he hit .303/.378/.515 with 151 homers. That’s quite good, but it’s even better when you consider how weak offense was during that period. In four of those six years, the National League OPS was below .690, and in two of them, it was below .680.

Nate's .278/.326/.430 line rates a 112 OPS+ with B-R and a 107 wRC+ with FanGraphs. Would it surprise you that he's about 10% better than the average hitter? I sorted NL hitters with 350+ PA by OPS and discovered that Nate's .756 is 53rd of the 117 listed, sandwiched between Alfonso Soriano and James Loney. Pablo Sandoval was 10th at .909, just behind Carlos Beltran (.910). The rest of the lineup was terrible: Cody Ross 66th (.730), Jeff Keppinger 97th (.677), Aubrey Huff 98th (.676), Andres Torres 111th (.643), and Aaron Rowand 115th (.621). Nate, when given the everyday job, delivered the goods. He wasn't a superstar, but he wasn't asked to be one, either. More important than that, he didn't stink. I know, I know, damning with faint praise. But he didn't. The other guys did stink, and that matters. Note that four of those names are no longer on the team.I have good feelings about Schierholtz and 2012. He's under team control (arb-eligible this year, FA in 2015), he's not quite 28 (February), and his game is still improving. We've seen his tremendous glove and the value it delivers to the team, now we hope to see his bat show more polish and consistency. He has over 200 more games played in the minors than majors (and over twice as many PA) so he is still developing. I think we saw a lot of positives before the injury and I'm expecting more of the same. If I've learned anything over the years, it is to appreciate what a player can do rather than what he cannot. And that a player who has never had a full season has not had a real chance to reach his full potential. Nate can give the Giants solid production, speed on the bases, and range and athleticism in the field with a deadly goddamn cannon to boot. He needs to stay healthy, be steady, and play his game. If he can do that the 2012 Giants will be much improved over the 2011 version.