Sunday, July 27, 2008

Sunday July 27, 2008

Am I a lucky guy or what?!?! If the election were held today Barack Obama would be my President! He holds a commanding lead in the race...to be the Prime Minister of England or Germany...and something significant in France...not quite sure what it is but it is probably le gross legume...so I guess that the good news because things aren't quite settled yet here in the U.S....because we all know that our European brethren have done such a splendid job in politics the past thousand years or so...therefore it behooves us to consider carefully their counsel of political leadership...knowing that they are always 'spot on' in politics....

...Anyway, there are other more important things to discuss...most notably the economy...which is clearly not a strength for either of the Presidential candidates...but there are three things that continue to concern me...really distress me is more accurate...that just don't seem to get the proper amount of attention for a healthy and vibrant economy...including the ongoing credit market tightening which is a result of the mortgage mess...because for five years banks and lending institutions were throwing money at anyone...hmmmm....let's see...Do you have a pulse? Dheck! Do you have a job? Check! Not sure how much you make? Check! Bad credit history? Check! Too large of a loan for you? Check! OK here is your loan! Enjoy! And make sure to go to Home Depot and spend some more money...

...But now the opposite is happening in the restriction of credit...I sat in on a "Business Rountable" recently of construction and real estate leaders of San Diego and I have to tell you that it was pretty dire in the lack of construction and development funding....the pipeline is really running dry and we are not going to feel the effects of this for a while...the banks have clamped down so hard that only the very wealthiest can get loans for projects, homes, businesses...and this is going to really bite us hard in the future...

...And the dull work of infrastructure continues to be neglected...I mean why build bridges when we have the important work of banning transfats from California restaurants to tackle...(man, I have been losing sleep over that one! Thanks Arnold for protecting me!)...but all the while our roads and bridges and highways are neglected....and at the end of the day these are really the unpaid bills of the future generations because infrastructure is really dull stuff but has a huge impact on everything that we do in society...and the politicians and most of us just don't get it...

...All right, since I have forgotten what the third thing is in the economy that really concerns me...but the whole banning of transfats in California really chafes me...couldn't we have tackled this problem in a bit more comprehensive way? Like actually getting school children away from their text messaging and video "grab fanny" and instead have them moving around the playground during recess? Like having them throw a baseball or play tag or have fun on a swing set? Oh wait a minute...most of those things are now illegal because they caused an injury somewhere somehow...so let's ban those items...but wasn't there some sort of a benefit to those old "Presidential Fitness Tests" we did every year at Temperance-Kutner Elementary in Clovis?...those darned pull-ups I absolutely hated... (thanks to the Ataide side of the family bequeathing us bad hearts and thin arms...not exactly the stuff of longevity or physical strength)...but the other stuff I could do OK...well, at least not the worst in Mrs. Locke's class...dear old lady that she was...

...Did I tell you about my confrontation with a little old lady in a parking lot in San Diego? Seems like she didn't like the fact that I drive an SUV...

...So my freshly minted son in law Dustin and his dad are getting into my 2004 well worn Yukon at Liberty Station...and they make a comment that it is really tight getting into the space and opening the door...which it was...and Agnes Frankenberry is walking behind my car as I am opening my door...and she says as she passes in a fairly loud voice "Well maybe you should get a smaller car"...so I immediately went up and thanked her for the great advice as I had never considered such a thing...she was like a walking Suzi Orman, Dear Abby and Judge Judy all wrapped up into one cute little package...well, maybe not...

...what I actually said to her as she was walking away was "This was a great car to help raise our family and haul everyone around to school and work events"...and she made a sound that actually was like a "harumph" and kept walking...and I have to say it really bugged me that she would hurt my Yukon's feelings like that!...but the funny thing is that it really makes no sense for me to sell old "Yukie" for the following reasons:

*She is paid for (a rarity these days)

*She is fully depreciated

*She really does get pretty good mileage (17-18 city/20-22 highway)

*I drive very little in the Yukon (after all, we do have a Volvo)

*Friends and family love to borrow the Yukon to haul things

*The SUV resale market is terrible (big surprise!)

...but the most important reason is...that I should be free to decide what I want to drive...

...So please if I am a bit slow to jump on the Prius bandwagon...cut me a bit of slack on this topic Agnes! Yukon owners have feelings too!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

...One last thing...

Just in case you missed it check out Will Ferrell's accepting the ESPY Award for Tiger Woods...

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Sunday, July 13, 2008

"Stop Worrying and Learn to Love the Bear!"

...So goes the headline in the Saturday Journal (7/12/08, p B1) from an article with the tickler of "Take it from Graham and Buffett, These Miserable Markets Are a Gift from the Financial Gods." What? Are you insane? All of our 401(k) plans and IRA's and stock picks have tanked at least 20% and this is time to love the bear?...We should hate the bear...right?

...Well, not really, according to the WSJ...and common sense as well...if one can think clearly through the headlines...yes, it is tough times right now, especially if one bought a home in escalating markets with little down payment and a variable rate loan...or you have lost your job...or commute long distances....but if you have a job and can make your rent or house payment OK each month...it is time to put the peddle down on your retirement and savings right now...because what the bear market does is to make stocks inexpensive (read cheap)...and none other than Warren Buffett has said "If a stock (I own) goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."...Why does Buffet think this way? Because he can buy even more shares cheaply before the bounce back in the market...which nearly always comes if you have bought good companies...

Look, people are still going to buy groceries and razors and tires...they may slow down on those purchases but they are still needed....which means if your stock in Kroger or Gillette or Costco has gone down and they are off 10% or 20% or even more from their highs...it follows it is not time to sell but consider buying more of these depressed high quality stocks...Gillette still makes good razors and my beard is still growing (white at times...darn!) and I will need to replace my disposable razors in a few weeks as they wear out...so "the people who so far this year have yanked $39 billion out of US stock funds and $6 billion out of exchange traded stock funds, do not understand this. But if you are in your saving and investing years, a bear market is a gift from the financial gods--and the longer it lasts, the better off you will be. Instead of running from the bear, you should embrace him. (WSJ, ibid.) **(caveat--I am not talking about your food and rent money here but disposable income or investment income! I don't want anyone taking food off the table to buy stocks right now!)

...So if you have a "rumbly in your tumbly" over this market...I would ask you (especially you youngsters in your 40's or even younger...) to stay calm and think about the counter-intuitive nature of investing....and that this presents opportunities for you...to be a wise and prudent long-term investor. After all, Warren Buffett is not too shabby of an advice giver on this topic!

Friday, July 11, 2008

Well, put this one in the "I am so reassured" file...but I was making some coffee and there on the kitchen counter was a store bought pie crust...and smack dab in the middle of the plastic cover was an announcement that it had "REAL graham crackers!"...(emphasis not added by blogger)...and I thought we have really over-used slogans and phrases when we have to be assured that we are not eating fake graham crackers...and if such things exist I don't think I want to know what they are composed of...

All Natural, Fresh, Real, Organic and especially GREEN...need to take a time out from our world for a bit...I am so sick of seeing meaningless stickers and reminders and notes touting "green" that I really might start a recovery or protest group...businesses are creating entire departments of green...when it seems to me that much of what is posing as "green" is in the first place the common sense our grandparents had (don't waste food, consume less, re-use, grow your own, sew your clothers, can some fruit, find non-toxic substitutes like vinegar as a cleaner, etc.)...but it is starting to feel to me like Big Brother is watching me with this whole green thing...

One last thought from the grocery store...right next to the "clean up on aisle 7"...my lovely bride Ruth told me last night over dinner that she was at our local grocer and was looking at the tomatoes...and there was a produce man stocking fresh veggies...and so she mentioned that the focus was shifting away from tomatoes to jalapenos, cilantro and some other possible culprits in the salmonella contamination nationwide...funny thing is Mr. Green Grocer had not heard of such a change in the FDA focus...but he re-assured Ruth that "He was certain that their peppers were good because they would never sell anything with salmonella"...and once again I am most reassured...

...but do find it amazing coming from the production and wholesale side of food production how poor the chain of communication often is in companies...and we see here the damage that is done to products and companies once bad information is out and about...the proverbial "you can't put toothpaste back in the tube" kind of scenario...and once again the farmers and shippers take it in the shorts.....

....anyway, was I the only kid who got creeped out by the "Jolly Green Giant?"...he appeared on Sunday evening show's when I was a young pup...on the big RCA in the living room on Temperance Ave. in Clovis...a bowl of popcorn in front of me and my brothers as we waited for Walt Disney's Wonderful World of Disney to start...and I always stopped chewing for a minute to stare at this huge green dude standing over our food supply...in some idyllic valley...and I just wonder if he could be the source of the salmonella!

Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Just so no one gets their undies in a bunch...I want to underscore that the "Bitch Factor" is a widely used term in attempting to understand the bias towards women, in particular in business and politics...and for a little reading (and a pretty good definition I might say) I would point you to http://www.capitolhillblue.com/cont/node/4653 ...which has a definition from the Urban Dictionary...

So continuing on this topic for a bit longer, I would want to try to offer some positive examples...and I immediately think of the CEO of PepsiCo Indra Nooyi who is generally doing a great job...and created a new motto for the firm..."Performance With Purpose" and says "If all you want is to screw this company down tight and get double-digit earnings growth and nothing else, then I'm the wrong person"...pretty refreshing stuff in the nutty world of corporate earnings and growth that is screwing up a whole bunch of firms (I would recommend you read Small Giants by Bo Burlingham as a good primer on this topic)....and for more on Ms. Nooyi check out the March 3, 2008 copy of Fortune...

Which I guess leads to my point...which is that Ms. Nooyi is just a single example of women having a positive influence and are gaining increasing status in business positions of great power...and that more and more firms are recognizing the sense of balance that women (especially leaders) can bring...and in creating a sense of community both inside and outside the firm...so I would want to point us to the positive rather than the negative on this topic...and you could take a look at Meg Whitman at EBay or even even someone like Rebecca Pollock of Nielsen Construction whom I have had the privilege of getting to know in recent months...see http://www.sdbj.com/industry_article.asp?aID=45461171.9473233.1643954.5934972.293098.717&aID2=126449 and http://www.bizsandiego.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=537&Itemid=2 ...for my San Diego students generally and female in particular Rebecca is a wonderful example of a woman in business that I believe is a role model for all...unfortunately I have not seen the same thing in politics but perhaps that is due to the "shrill" nature of the political arena...but I want to think on it a bit more...

At the end of the day it is unfortunate that we even have to have such conversations...but I believe it is getting better...and there are some great firms out there that are partnerships between spouses...and what is true of partnerships generally is very true of spousal partnerships, specifically, the need to carve out each spouse's own particular area of expertise...and let them each lead and work in that area...for the overlap is where confusion and conflict comes...in my experience and observations...

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

I just love election years and all of the idiocy that it brings...and the positions and pundits and poop that emerges...and I find myself more and more cynical with each passing election. I wish it wasn't this way--that someone or something would come along that would inspire me and make me feel proud to vote--but that has been a while...I think Roosevelt...Teddy, that is...since I felt inspired...well, maybe Reagan.

Anyway, this leads to a whole series of important questions as to where we are heading as a country...and our place in the world...but since the dollar is now worth about 1/5 of a Euro and is being considered to be linked to the Mexican peso for currency stability... our place in the world is looking to be more and more of a bargain for the Europeans and the oil sheiks to simply buy us up...and then we will go to work for them...as cast members at Disneyland and baristas at Starbucks...well, now that I heard the 'Bucks is closing 600 stores maybe it will be at Mickey D's instead...

But once again I digress and avoid saying anything substantive about the election...but on the face of it this really shouldn't be any contest as to who should be elected...but since Bozo has left the building we need to choose between Messrs. McCain and Obama...and it seems to boil down to experience/age vs. inspiration/change...and a lot can still happen in the coming months but I would predict that Obama is going to become more conservative (which always happens with Democratic nominees since the McGovern thumping of the 70's)...and McCain is going to try to become more contemporary...hip if you will...and that is going to be the more formidable task since there is so little one can do with his white and thinning hair...but I don't know if you had heard this, but it was really rather disturbing...that Obama only had 143 days of US Senatorial experience prior to forming his Presidential exploratory committee...does that bother anyone other than me? Wow! Don't misunderstand me...I understand that a large part of being the President is inspiration and perception...but even JFK had WWII experience and much more time in the Senate...and while Reagan was an actor he had been a fairly effective California governor...but what has Obama done besides attending Harvard (sheesh, like that is any big deal!), a lawyer (ditto) and worked in Chicago politics for a bit. This one is really tough to figure out...but if friends of Obama like Wesley Clark opens his mouth up one more time on Obama's behalf McCain may actually have a shot...

But what about the women in this campaign? No, no, no...not Cindy or Michelle...I mean Hillary! A reader of this blog has asked me about the "bitch" factor for women in business and politics and leadership generally...and Hillary provides perhaps the most recent example of this issue...so, was HIllary penalized unfairly because she portrays character that in men would be construed as leadership or guts or strength but in women we view this as being "bitchy?" A great question...and I would say that in my experience that this is a fair criticism...and I really don't know how to change it...or at least change it within a period of years because it really is a generational tendency...that is only very slowly changing...and I think we must be fair that we recognize that it is not only in a woman's demeanor and style but it involves dress, emotions, crying in public, humor and a myriad of other issues...and it really is unfair to women and likely hampers their ability to lead...and I have commented in the past in Sunday School classes that I have taught that much of what I read in the New Testament shows that women had a formidable if not essential role in the birth and stability of the early Christian church...and since that time I don't know that we men in leadership in the Church have done such a great job (can anyone say Inquisitions, Crusades, Apocalyptic proclamations, polygamy, war, etc.)...

So I think the answer for equality for women lies elsewhere...and I will comment on that in my next post...as I need to get after the day here and earn my keep...blessings to each and every one of you today!

Sunday, July 6, 2008

SO IT AIN'T THE TOMATOES?

WELL THEN WHAT THE HECK IS IT?

Oxygen? Cilantro? Jalapenos?

Why is it that I have to go to the Wall Street Journal to get clarity on this disaster about tomatoes and salmonella? The WSJ? This morning's SD Union-Tribune continues to report that the FDA "suspects" tomatoes but is now looking at other potential sources of this outbreak that has sickened nearly 1000 people (reported) over the past 2 months. Other sources now include cilantro and jalapenos...two items commonly used in salsa and guacamole. Why not avocados? Well, they are not a carrier or transmitter of the pathogen (well, according to the FDA, which should make all of us feel better, right?)...but we might as well throw oxygen in the mix while we are searching for answers since we are no closer to solving this now than when it started...and in the process we have just about destroyed the US and Mexican tomato industries...this is the fear of everyone who produces food and fiber for our country...that the government, media, environmental groups or other "public advocates" will ruin us in the process of their desire to "protect us"...the old-timers out there recall the ALAR scare of some years ago...and check this link out to see how it continues to destroy apple growers long after the false headlines goes away (http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE7DB163BF93AA35754C0A967958260)

Do you find it odd that you haven't heard anything about major restaurant chains (McD's, In N Out, Olive Garden, Applebees, etc.) not being involved in this mess? Why is that? Well, the WSJ says (unbeknownst to me prior to reading it in yesterday's front page edition) that this outbreak of salmonella is limited to small restaurants (read "Mom and Pop's) and for those of us in or with a produce background we know that the sources of fresh produce many (not all) of these small outlets use can have marginal quality, handling practices and sanitation in the way in which they handle fresh produce, meat, etc. It is a tough job to manage all the issues in the chain of custody of our food and these small shops, which may have great food and try their best but purchase food in very small quantities from terminal markets or other secondary sources...can have some quality concerns that larger stores and restaurants don't...(and the flip-side is that the small stores can sometimes get specialty and local produce and items that the large ones cannot)...but there is a risk...

So what to do...well since we can't stop breathing (remember, oxygen is on our list of sources for the moment, as should be cotton candy, radishes, ginzu knifes, and bubble gum), we should for the moment be very careful about having freshly made salsa at small restaurants...since the WSJ confirms that jalapenos are an easier potential source of the e-coli pathogen than tomatoes...and keep your eye out for overall sanitary conditions at the places you eat (check out the bathrooms...if a place cannot keep its bathrooms clean, do you think the kitchen would be any different?)...and wash and refrigerate your food well (water works just fine)...and write a letter to the FDA or your political reps to tell them to stop pointing the fingers at specific crops unless they have better evidence because they are putting people out of business...oh, and start buying and eating fresh grown and well washed tomatoes again!

We lost a great one today kids! Larry Harmon AKA Bozo the Clown left us at the young age of 83!The world mourns (especially Mike Gallagher.) We will miss you Bozo but your spirit will live on in all of the various ways in which we can use your beloved name..."What a bozo!" or "Don't be a bozo!" (True story...I knew a car salesman in Reedley by the name of Bozo...he was actually a legendary salesman...so don't go whining if you are stuck with a name you don't like! If guys named Bozo can succeed just think you can do!)

Friday, July 4, 2008

Well, Happy 4th to everyoneand I hope you have a great holiday! And I would ask that in the midst of all of the celebrations that you say a prayer for the men and women on station throughout the world, regardless of the branch of service or where deployed...for this all-volunteer force is a remarkable experience in democracy...and is far better than conscription...but let us always pray and work for peace!

Returning to a topic I raised at the bottom of my Tuesday June 24 entry about high gas prices having a "silver lining" I would observe that we can probably all see the changes that are happening...painful but positive...as we go through this grinding of our pocketbooks and patience oh high gas prices...but there are increasing reports that are confirming my suspicions of what will shake out through this pain...and here are a few of the positives that I think will develop:

**Businesses that produce products that are relatively low in value but have high shipping costs can return to the US. Examples would be furniture, produce, milled lumber, and toys (largely off-sourced to China, South and Central America and elsewhere in the past decade) Not only will this create jobs but it will help the environment due to reduced shipping costs and burn of fossil fuels, as well as reinforce the value of "US Made" or "California Grown."

**We will begin to see renewed interest in conservation...and production...of new fuel sources. Look, I think it is just immoral that we can, on the one hand, argue for environmental and human rights and make it nearly impossible to explore, produce, refine or distribute petroleum products in the US but that we can pay $145+ dollars per barrel to countries that we have little or no control over in their own production. And I don't give a rip if you drive a Prius or a Yukon on this! We are all buying and using this oil...and it is not just if our cars get 20 or 30 or 40 miles a gallon! What of all of the fuel it takes to move our products via truck, rail and ship? All of us eat, buy toilet paper, fly to our vacations...so it is not as simple as all of us driving a hybrid. (Speaking of hybrids...are we talking at all about the source of the electricity to recharge the cute little Prius that tootles along in the express lane? Or where all those batteries will go? Or if it diverts us from the real problem...that too many of us drive long distances by ourselves? Check out http://blogs.drive.com.au/2008/05/the_electric_car_pollution_pro.html for a little diversion on this topic)

But I digress...as I mentioned earlier we need to reconsider nuclear, drilling, shale extraction, wind, solar and other areas...and we are seeing the economic analysis turn towards it working in our favor...which means additional producers and innovations will come...which will then in turn bring the price of transportation back down again...and for an example of this see what one of my past students Troy Hinds of SPG Solar is up to (see http://www.pointloma.edu/Fermanian/News_and_Notes.htm) with their plan to develop a huge solar system at PLNU...nice stuff, makes economic sense and environmental sense...but I still cannot figure out why we cannot drill up at ANWR...especially in light of the aging and eventual depletion of our existing Alaskan Pipeline and fields...**Young entrepreneurs will seek new solutions to old problems...which us "old dogs" cannot get around to solving. Trust me, I have seen the future with these ""kids" (at my age anyone under 30 is a kid!), and they are remarkable. They have a balance of pragmatism, thoughtfullness, audacity, clarity of thought and innovation that my generation did not have--we were too fixed on earning money and getting ahead. These young entrepreneurs (not just business students but from all fields, interests and areas of study, both for profit and non profit) are thinking about things differently and have a global perspective that we did not have...and I am impressed. I would suggest that all of us old veterans find ways to pour ourselves into this next generation in any one of a number of ways (mentoring, internships, coaching, even a cup of coffee once in a while) and help them along. They have the answers to these questions and we need to start giving them more "rein."

But for now slam down a couple of hot dogs, drink some iced tea (c'mon, I am teaching at a Nazarene University!), light a sparkler or two, and say a prayer for our armed forces and for peace in the world...and enjoy the day!

Oh and PS...anyone interested in Rachel and Dustin's wedding can see a few pictures at http://tunnelphotography.com/# and go to the blog section, scroll down to the June 29, 2008 entry and enjoy! It was a great evening with family and friends!