The preliminary estimate of the resident population of Queensland at June 2000 was 3.6 million, an increase of 59,500 since June 1999. Queensland recorded the fastest growth of all States at 1.7%, significantly higher than the national growth rate of 1.2%. In the five years from 1995 to 2000, Queensland experienced an average annual growth rate of 1.8%. Natural increase was the largest component of population growth (24,300) in 1999-2000, followed by net interstate migration (19,000) and net overseas migration (16,300). At June 2000, the population of Queensland formed 18.6% of Australia's population.

POPULATION OF QUEENSLAND

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND CHANGE

Queensland's population is concentrated in the south-eastern corner of the State in the Statistical Divisions (SDs) of Brisbane and Moreton, which have 45.6% and 19.5% of the population, respectively. The mainly pastoral areas in the west of the State are sparsely populated, with the North West, South West and Central West SDs collectively containing only 2.1% of the State's population.

The SDs whichexperienced the highest average annual percentage growth between 1999 and 2000 were Moreton (2.9%), Brisbane (1.7%) and Northern (1.6%). The SDs which experienced population decline during this period were South West and Central West, with average annual population change rates of –0.3% and –0.8% respectively. In most SDs the average annual rate of growth (or decline) was lower for the 1999-2000 period than for the 1995–2000 period.

In thetwelve months to June 2000 the populations of the City of Brisbane and the City of the Gold Coast increased 1.7% and 3.4% respectively. Growth within the City of Brisbane occurred predominantly in the fringe Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) in the south-west. This area experienced continued high growth of young families in new housing estates. Unit developments near the Brisbane CBD have led to increases in the population growth rates of inner city SLAs, as evidenced by the inner city SLA of Fortitude Valley - Inner which exhibited the highest growth rate in Queensland (102.2%). A contributing factor to this high growth rate was the SLAs small population base.

AGE DISTRIBUTION

The Queensland population is continuing to age, following the national trend, with the median age of the population rising to 34.6 years at June 2000, up from 34.3 years 12 months earlier and 32.9 years at June 1995. This aging trend is due to the lower than replacement fertility rate (1.8) for Queensland women. Queensland continues to have a lower median age than for Australia as a whole (35.2 years).

Over the five years to June 2000, the number of children (aged less than 15 years) increased 4.1%, the number of persons aged 15-64 years grew 10.3% and the number of persons aged 65 years and over increased 13.0%. Over the past twenty years, the number of people aged 85 years and over has increased 179.8%, from 15,300 in 1980 to 42,900 in 2000, compared with a total population growth of 57.4% over the same period.

DEPENDENCY RATIO

The dependency ratio is the number of children aged 0-14 years and persons aged 65 years and over per 100 persons aged 15-64 years. A reduced value for the dependency ratio indicates that there is more population of working age to support the population of non-working age. The dependency ratio for Queensland was 48.3 in 2000, continuing a declining trend from 48.6, 49.8 and 55.9 in 1999, 1995 and 1980 respectively. Queensland had a lower dependency ratio at June 2000 than for the whole of Australia (48.8). In Queensland in 2000, the Brisbane and Far North SDs recorded the lowest dependency ratios with 45.6 and 45.9, respectively. Wide Bay-Burnett (57.8) and Darling Downs (55.6) continued to record the highest dependency ratios. This is partly a reflection of the substantial numbers of retirees residing within these Statistical Divisions.

MEDIAN AGE

Queensland has experienced 20.6% growth in its median age over the last twenty years, increasing from 28.7 years in 1980 to 34.6 years at 30 June 2000. Queensland had the fourth lowest median age of all States and Territories, which was lower than for the whole of Australia (35.2 years).

Within Queensland, Wide Bay-Burnett and Moreton SDs had the highest median ages of 38.3 years and 37.4 years respectively, both well above the median age for the whole of Queensland. North West SD had the lowest median age at 29.5 years, which was more than 2 years below any other SD in Queensland and was similar to the median age for the Northern Territory of 29.0 years at June 2000.

CHILDREN

Children (aged under 15 years) numbered 753,000 in 2000, an increase of 5,100 over 1999. Although the number of children has increased, the proportion of children has decreased, from 22.2% of Queensland's population in 1995 to 21.1% in 2000. The proportion of children decreased in all SDs over this period.

In 2000, the lowest proportion of children occurred in the Moreton (19.8%) and Brisbane (20.4%) SDs. The highest proportions of children were found in the North West and South West SDs with 26.1% and 24.4%, respectively. In the Torres and Burke SLAs the proportions of children were 37.5% and 35.3% respectively, while Fortitude Valley - Inner recorded the lowest proportion of children at 4.7%.

AGED PERSONS

Persons aged 65 years or more numbered 408,000 in 2000, an increase of 9,500 persons since 1999. The proportion of aged persons increased from 11.1% in 1995 to 11.5% in 2000. In 2000, the lowest proportions of persons aged 65 years or more occurred in the North West (5.9%) and Mackay (8.2%) SDs. The highest proportions of aged persons occurred in the Wide Bay-Burnett and Moreton SDs (14.7% and 13.9%, respectively) while the Brisbane SD recorded 10.9%. All the SDs except Moreton experienced an increase in the proportion of aged persons since June 1995, with Central West SD up from 10.5% to 13.5% in the five year period.

Persons aged 85 years or more numbered 42,900 an increase of 2,800 persons since 1999. The proportion of the population aged 85 years and over is increasing, rising from 0.7% of the Queensland population in 1980 to 1.0% in 1995 and 1.2% in 2000. The size and the distribution of this population may be of particular interest to planners as this age group requires greater support from social and medical services.

SEX RATIO

The sex ratio (male population per 100 female population) for Queensland at June 2000 was 100.1, which was slightly lower than the sex ratio at June 1995 (100.5), and higher than the sex ratio for Australia (99.2). At June 2000, Brisbane, Darling Downs and Moreton SDs had the lowest sex ratios, with 97.8, 98.4 and 98.6 respectively. The sex ratios of the remaining eight SDs exceeded the State sex ratio of 100.1, with the highest being 118.5 in the North West SD. This is due to a combination of higher fertility and the composition of the labour force within the region. Age group sex ratios at June 2000 for Queensland for 0-14 years, 15-64 years and 65 years and over were 105.3, 101.9 and 81.8 respectively. The lowest sex ratio was for the 85 years and over age group at 48.1. The declining sex ratio after age 65 is a reflection of women having longer lifespans than men.

REGIONAL POPULATION CHANGE

Although the State of Queensland experienced population increase between 1995 and 2000, not all regions in Queensland increased in population size. There were 55 Local Government Areas (LGAs) that increased in population size (average annual growth rate >0.5%), while 42 LGAs experienced population loss (average annual growth rate <-0.5%) and 28 LGAs remained relatively unchanged (average annual growth rate between -0.5% and 0.5%). LGAs experiencing population growth were predominantly located along the coastline, and in and around capital cities. Some sparsely populated LGAs in the north and west of the State also experienced population growth. On the other hand, the main areas of population decline were the rural and regional areas of Queensland. At a regional level, the main determinant of population change in Queensland is migration, especially internal migration.

POPULATION CHANGE, Local Government Areas - 30 June 1995-2000

EXPLANATORY NOTES

INTRODUCTION

1 This publication contains the preliminary estimates of the age and sex distribution of the resident population for Statistical Divisions (SDs), Statistical Subdivisions (SSDs), Statistical Local Areas (SLAs), legal Local Government Areas (LGAs) and Statistical Districts (S Dist.) in Queensland at 30 June 2000.

2 The estimated resident population (ERP) is the official ABS estimate of the Australian population.

METHODOLOGY

3 The total population of each SLA is based on results of the 1996 Population Census and calculated for post-census dates by a linear regression model which uses independent indicators of population change such as dwelling approvals and medicare enrolments. These intercensal estimates of the resident population are revised each time a population census is taken.

4 The age and sex estimates were prepared using the cohort component method. Post-censal age distributions were obtained by advancing the age and sex estimates for 30 June 1996 to the next age, subtracting deaths and adding births and net estimated inter-regional and overseas migration. Inter-regional and overseas migration was estimated from analysis of arrivals and departures data and individual SLA profiles derived from the 1996 Census.

5 After each Census, final estimates for the preceding intercensal period are calculated by incorporating an additional adjustment (intercensal discrepancy) to ensure that the total intercensal increase at each age agrees with the difference between the estimated resident population at the two respective census dates.

6 A detailed explanation of the concept of estimated resident population, as adopted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for official population estimates, is contained in the ABS Information Paper: Population Estimates: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 1995 (Cat. no. 3228.0). This paper is also available via the Themes/Demography section of the ABS website.

RELIABILITY

7 In recognition of the inherent inaccuracy involved in population estimation, population figures over 1,000 in the text are rounded to the nearest hundred, and figures less than 1,000 are rounded to the nearest ten. While unrounded figures are provided in tables, accuracy to the last digit is not claimed and should not be assumed.

AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF GROWTH

8 The average annual rate of population growth, r, is calculated as a percentage using the formula below where P0 is the population at the start of the period, Pn is the population at the end of the period and n is the length of the period between Pn and P0 in years.

GEOGRAPHIC BOUNDARIES

9 The geographic areas used in this publication are defined in the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC), 2000 (Cat. no. 1216.0).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

10 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated: without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

11 The ABS compiles and publishes Population Projections, Australia 1999 to 2101 (Cat. no. 3222.0). The ABS can also prepare ad hoc population projections. Further details regarding the population projections service may be obtained by calling the National Information Service on 1300 135 070.

RELATED PUBLICATIONS

12 Other publications which may be of interest include:

Australian Demographic Statistics (quarterly) (Cat. no. 3101.0)

Australian Demographic Trends (Cat. no. 3102.0)

Births, Australia (Cat. no. 3301.0)

Census of Population and Housing: Selected Social and Housing Characteristics for Statistical Local Areas, Queensland (Cat. no. 2015.3)

Deaths, Australia (Cat. no. 3302.0)

Demography, Queensland (Cat. no. 3311.3)

Population by Age and Sex, Australian States and Territories (Cat. no. 3201.0)

Population Projections, Australia, States and Territories, 1999 to 2101 (Cat. no. 3222.0)

Regional Population Growth, Australia and New Zealand (Cat. no. 3218.0)

13 Current publications produced by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products (Cat. no. 1101.0). The ABS also issues on Tuesdays and Fridays a Release Advice (Cat. no. 1105.0) which lists publications to be released in the next few days. The Catalogue and Release Advice are available from any ABS office.

DATA AVAILABLE ON REQUEST

14 The ABS also has other unpublished statistics available including ERP age-sex data by single year of age. Inquiries should be made to the National Information Service on 1300 135 070.

FINAL ISSUE

15 This is the final published issue of Population by Age and Sex, Queensland (Cat. no. 3235.3). In future years the age-sex data will be made available in electronic format in a SuperTABLE dataset as companion data in AusStats. Data at all levels within the Australian Standard Geographical Classification main structure will be included, as well as Local Government Areas. The new companion data will also effectively replace Estimated Resident Population by Age and Sex in Statistical Local Areas, Queensland: Data on Floppy Disk (Cat. no. 3227.3). Non-AusStats users can obtain this data by contacting Client Services (see back page of this publication for details)

GLOSSARY

Dependency ratio

The dependency ratio relates to the number of children aged 0-14 years and persons aged 65 years and over per 100 persons aged 15-64 years.

Estimated resident population (ERP)

Estimated resident population data are estimates of the Australian population obtained by adding to the estimated population at the beginning of each period the components of natural increase (on a usual residence basis) and net overseas migration. For the States and Territories, account is also taken of estimated interstate movements involving a change of usual residence. After each census, estimates for the preceding intercensal period are revised by incorporating an additional quarterly adjustment (intercensal discrepancy) to ensure that the total intercensal increase agrees with the difference between the estimated resident populations at the two respective census dates.Estimates of the resident population are based on adjusted (for underenumeration) census counts by place of usual residence, to which are added the number of Australian residents estimated to have been temporarily overseas at the time of the census.

The concept of estimated resident population links people to a place of usual residence within Australia. Usual residence is that place where each person has lived or intends to live for six months or more in a reference year.

Geographic areas

The tables in this publication are at the levels of Statistical Local Area, Statistical District, Statistical Division and Local Government Area, as defined by the 2000 edition of the Australian Standard Geographical Classification (ASGC).

*Legal Local Government Areas (LGAs). These areas are the spatial units which represent the geographical areas of incorporated local government councils and incorporated community government councils (CGCs) where the CGC is of sufficient size and statistical significance. The various types of LGAs are cities (C), areas (A), rural cities (RC), towns (T), shires (S), district councils (DC) and municipalities (M).

*Statistical Districts (S Dists). These consist of selected, significant, predominantly urban areas in Australia which are not located within a Capital City SD. Statistical Districts enable comparable statistics to be produced about these selected urban areas.

*Statistical Divisions (SDs). These consist of one or more Statistical Subdivisions (SSDs). The divisions are designed to be relatively homogeneous regions characterised by identifiable social and economic units within the region, under the unifying influence of one or more major towns or cities.

*Statistical Local Areas (SLAs). These geographical areas are, in most cases, identical with, or have been formed from a division of, whole LGAs. In other cases, they represent unincorporated areas. In aggregate, SLAs cover the whole of a State or Territory without gaps or overlaps. In some cases legal LGAs overlap statistical subdivision boundaries and therefore comprise two or three SLAs. Where a particular LGA is substantially different from other LGAs in terms of size and economic significance, or in terms of user needs for statistics, the LGA may be split into two or more SLAs. For example, the City of Brisbane covers a large area and is split into 163 SLAs generally based on suburbs.

*Statistical Subdivisions (SSDs). These are of intermediate size, between SLAs and SDs. In aggregate, they cover the whole of Australia without gaps or overlaps. They are defined as socially and economically homogeneous regions characterised by identifiable links between the inhabitants. In the non-urban areas an SSD is characterised by identifiable links between the economic units with

After each census, estimates for the preceding intercensal period are provided by incorporating an additional quarterly adjustment to ensure that the total intercensal increase agrees with the difference between the estimated resident populations at the two respective census dates. For a detailed description see the ABS information paper Population Estimates: Concepts, Sources and Methods (Cat. no. 3228.0).

Media age

The age at which half the population is older and half is younger. A median is a measure of central tendency. It is a mid value which divides a population distribution into two, with half the observations falling below it and half above. Unlike averages (means) medians are not usually skewed by extreme observations.

Natural increase

Excess of births over deaths.

Net interstate migration

The difference between the number of persons who have changed their place of usual residence by moving into a given State or Territory and the number who have changed their place of usual residence by moving out of that State or Territory. This difference may be either positive or negative.

Net oversease migration

Net overseas migration is net permanent and long-term overseas migration plus an adjustment for the net effect of category jumping. This net effect may be either positive or negative.

Population growth

For Queensland, population growth is the sum of natural increase, net overseas migration, net interstate migration and an allowance for intercensal discrepancy.