House prices stall as population slows

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Posted on Friday, 28 October 2011

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The stall in house prices can be explained by the population, new research has revealed.

According to RP Data’s research analyst Cameron Kusher, house prices have stalled in 10 of Australia’s regional cities over the past 12 months. At the same time, these markets have been hit by slower population growth.

Mr Kusher said the results are more pronounced in a number of the larger regional markets.

“Wollongong and Newcastle [in NSW] have been the exceptions due largely to housing affordability constraints where we have found that Sydney-siders are moving to more affordable areas but still within commuting distance of the city,” Mr Kusher said.

While the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Cairns have traditionally been the fastest growing council areas, these too have experienced a slowdown which has been extremely pronounced over recent years.

According to Mr Kusher, this is reflective of the slowdown in both sea and tree change migration flows as well as weaker tourism and retail markets.

Looking at the impact slower population growth has had on housing, Mr Kusher noted that across the detached housing market, all 10 of the regions have recorded a decline in median prices over the past 12 months.

The weakest performing market is currently Townsville which, for the past 12 months, experienced a drop in median house prices of 14.3 per cent.

The Sunshine Coast followed with a drop of 8.2 per cent while the Gold Coast dropped by 6.5 per cent.

Although minor, the best performances were recorded in Greater Geelong (0.7 per cent), Wollongong (1 per cent) and Newcastle (1.6 per cent).