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By Debra K. Decker, Former Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2006–2011

Nuclear forensics and attribution are the new "deterrence" concepts against illicit use of fissile material. Although the science is being developed, the required systems of policies and processes have not been fully analyzed. This paper attempts to show how nuclear attribution can advance from theory to practice by establishing multilaterally coordinated policies and procedures and by replicating systems that have worked in other disciplines.

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

"Seeking ways to dissuade more states from contemplating launching their own uranium enrichment programs...the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is considering different mechanisms to assure these states that they can obtain fuel supplies from the market without political interference."

By Debra K. Decker, Former Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2006–2011

The growth of the nuclear club provides more opportunities for terrorists to acquire deadly materials. That means the world needs a new strategy of deterrence. What could help keep the right ingredients out of the wrong hands? Giving bombs birth certificates.

By Debra K. Decker, Former Associate, International Security Program/Project on Managing the Atom, 2006–2011

Nuclear forensics and attribution are the new "deterrence" concepts against illicit use of fissile material. Although the science is being developed, the required systems of policies and processes have not been fully analyzed. This paper attempts to show how nuclear attribution can advance from theory to practice by establishing multilaterally coordinated policies and procedures and by replicating systems that have worked in other disciplines.

"No country has yet encountered major problems in its nuclear fuel supply specifically because of commercial disruptions. However, past political constraints on supply may be part of the motivation for countries like Iran to seek enrichment capability. Thus far it is unclear what other countries might be on the fence about acquiring a full fuel cycle and could be swayed not to enrich if an effective assurance mechanism could address the simply political risk. It is important for IAEA to identify these countries and the assurances they would need so that the best supply assurance mechanism can be crafted. Anticipating nuclear needs—not just for enriched uranium but also for fabricated fuel, transport, spare parts, etc.—and deciding whether and how government should help satisfy such needs is the best way to ensure that the industry develops in ways that serve the public's interests."

"A truly innovative concept has been proposed by a joint team from the Wharton Business School and Harvard's Kennedy School: "insure to assure." The proposed solution — complementary to the efforts of the IAEA and others — would create a partnership between financial industries and governments to create the world's first international nuclear fuel insurance fund."

This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing "nuclear renaissance." We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market—historically and prospectively—and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.

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