Manufacturing Moves Forward

Few New Jobs

Unemployment In State Jumps To 7.2 Percent

Jobless Rate Up To 7.2%

Unemployment in Connecticut increased in September from 6.9 percent to 7.2 percent, and the state continued to lose jobs, according to figures released Monday by the state Labor Department.

Economists said the monthly report indicates the state's troubled economy probably will not be able to shake the stubborn downturn until the middle of 1993.

"This is a junkyard dog of a recession, and it is not letting go of this economy," said Ronald Van Winkle, a West Hartford economist. "This recession is substantially worse in Connecticut than in most of the other 49 states."

With statistics adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, Connecticut lost about 1,200 jobs in September. That brings the total number of jobs lost since the start of the downturn in February 1989 to 192,800, slightly more than 11 percent.

But the job loss in September was much smaller than in the previous month, which saw a decline of 10,600 jobs, according to revised statistics from the Labor Department.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 7.2 percent was just below the national rate for September of 7.5 percent.

Roger Therrien, director of research for the Labor Department, said the actual unemployment numbers stayed fairly steady from August to September, contrary to expected seasonal fluctuations. That, he said, combined with continued downsizings and layoffs, caused the seasonally adjusted rate to rise.

And he predicted the bad news would continue.

"The recent layoff announcements in places like Textron and Pratt & Whitney are not reflected in September's numbers," Therrien said in a prepared statement. "These will be factored in over the next few months."

John J. Carson, president of the Connecticut Policy and Expenditure Council, said the fear of more jobs cuts will keep consumer confidence low.

"The erosion of jobs is depressing income growth and will

continue to make the Connecticut consumer a fairly infrequent purchaser of big ticket items," Carson said.

Also in September, the average workweek in Connecticut declined slightly from 41.8 hours to 41.3 hours and the number of first-time claims for jobless benefits increased from 5,399 to 6,645. All figures are seasonally adjusted.

Both those categories are considered leading indicators of recovery: If the workweek shows a steady expansion, then employers have more work and should soon be considering new hires. And the number of new jobless claims should start to shrink before the recovery begins.

Though the economists warn against reading too much into one month's statistics, neither category yet shows reason for optimism.

Donald Klepper-Smith, an economist for Southern New England Telecommunications, said Connecticut has no clear path out of this recession -- except to follow the national economy.

"The key right now is uncertainty," Klepper-Smith said. "We do have some of the pieces of the recovery puzzle in place, such as low interest rates, low inflation and a fiscal environment conducive to growth. The one thing we need now more than anything is job growth."

Klepper-Smith said he expects the national economy to pick up within the first half of 1993 and the state to follow in the second half of the year.

And he predicted the growth will be slow.

"We are going to be growing inch by inch, as opposed to yard by yard, but it will be growth none the less," Klepper-Smith said