COVID-19 impact on MLB season

There is something to be said for the summer sunshine helping make things better. Not saying that it will eliminate a worldwide pandemic, but even during the Spanish Flu in 1918 scientists found that patients who received regular sunshine and fresh air recovered more quickly. It is Mother Nature’s way

Here’s hoping we have summer Baseball and can root on the Brewers!

Something tells me that air quality was quite different in 1918 than it is now...

The parallels to 1918 are just ridiculous and need to stop. The entire reason Bill Gates has been harping about the need for a pandemic response plan for 10 years is because of globalization and the ability of laymen to travel around the world in 14 hours. We can't glean anything about how a different strain is going to behave by looking at one from a time when wealthy people were driving Model Ts.

No matter if it is 1918 or 2020 going outside should be done by all and helps the immune system. Hopefully people are not just staying inside all day. One of the few benefits for me with this is going on more bike rides with the kids.

No matter if it is 1918 or 2020 going outside should be done by all and helps the immune system. Hopefully people are not just staying inside all day. One of the few benefits for me with this is going on more bike rides with the kids.

I mean I don't disagree. If for no other reason than mental health, I'll never try to say this isn't better than sitting in your house.

There is something to be said for the summer sunshine helping make things better. Not saying that it will eliminate a worldwide pandemic, but even during the Spanish Flu in 1918 scientists found that patients who received regular sunshine and fresh air recovered more quickly. It is Mother Nature’s way

There is a scientific reason for this.

Vitamin D-3 is the vitamin that your body makes when it is exposed to sunlight. Vitamin D-3 is also perhaps the most important vitamin when it comes to supporting your immune system. This is the primary reason why many more people get sick during the winter than during the summer - during the summer people are out in the sunlight, naturally boosting their vitamin D-3 levels. During the winter people are not getting sunlight, thus their vitamin D-3 levels drop and their immune system is weaker.

I've been taking a vitamin D-3 supplement during the winter for about 15 years. During that time I can count the number of colds I've had on one hand, and I cannot remember the last time I've gotten the flu (and I don't get a flu shot).

Vitamin C also has immune-support and anti-viral properties. When I do feel a viral infection coming on (cold or sinus infection), I take 1000iu of Vitamin C at least five times a day and it almost always goes away after 3 days without amounting to anything other than feeling sinus pain/pressure for a day or so, maybe a day of sneezing. Vitamin D-3 you don't want to binge on, you can get toxic levels of that - it's a maintenance vitamin that you should take daily, maybe 2x daily if you're fighting something off.

1) I think prolonged societal shutdowns are going to be difficult to maintain for more than about 4 weeks. The steps we are taking now should slow the rate of transmission. That slow down may not show up for another 2 weeks, but the math says all this should work. Then the question is whether or not we can maintain some less restrictive form of social distancing for the next 6-8 weeks.

2) The question then becomes about the end game. How much virus are we willing to live with? Are we only trying to flatten the curve, or are we waiting until the virus is nearly gone? Is MLB willing to play w/o spectators?

Basically, I just think the return of baseball depends on how much unknown spread we have already seen and how willing MLB is to play under weird circumstances. If MLB only wants to do full go, we are probably talking July. If it is okay with no fans at games, then earlier is possible.

This is all about the capacity of the healthcare system to handle the number of cases. The number of cases so far has been minimal compared to a normal flu season. For instance here in Illinois, so far the total cases has been 105 with zero deaths. That's not a lot in a state with 15 million residents. The infectious disease experts have models which show that if they can basically shut down society for the next two weeks, and keep the expected rise in cases from increasing at an uncontrolled exponential rate, that the other measures already in effect such as stopping travel from world hot spots, and people continuing to practice personal hygiene measures will prevent the curve of cases reaching levels beyond the healthcare system capacity. Once they are confident they have the capacity to handle the caseload, it would actually be beneficial down the road to ease up on the social restrictions. Quiet a few people will still get the virus as Trump hinted until July or August, but they will be able to treat the most vulnerable and not have to ration out care. Eventually the summer heat, and long days will make the virus less contagious, but by the time it happens a significant number of people will have had the virus, recovered and formed a significant population of those with immunity when the virus reappears next December or January.

Even as things start returning to normal for most people in 6-8 weeks, the most vulnerable will have to be isolated as much as possible, but if they do become infected they will not have to be denied care.

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

2 months ago there were a couple hundred coronavirus cases in China - they've now been statistically stagnant in terms of new cases for more than 2 weeks. Europe, Italy in particular, appears to be in much worse straits with this than the US is. 2 months is far, far too long to go on with basically shutting the country down unless everyone is giddy for another great depression on a worldwide scale. There will surely be hot spots in the US where it hits harder than most and extending social distancing restrictions in those areas may be warranted, but a vast swath of the country will see minimal impact in terms of population well-being due to the virus. People will get the disease, but the death rate will resemble that of the flu. After another week, maybe two of this once the initial impact of how many cases spread stateside from travelers returning from Europe (a vast majority of the US cases have been traced back to people who were in Europe over the last 1-2 months), the country is going to collectively wake up one day and come to the realization that these measures likely limited the spread and were warranted - but they will be chomping at the bit to get them unwound ASAP so life can revert back to some sense of normality.

Basically, I just think the return of baseball depends on how much unknown spread we have already seen and how willing MLB is to play under weird circumstances. If MLB only wants to do full go, we are probably talking July. If it is okay with no fans at games, then earlier is possible.

For reference, MLB didn't shut down at all during WWII, when a good portion of their regular players joined the armed services (even if most weren't on front lines). There needs to be a season this year, even if the start of it begins with most games being played in Spring Training facilities or empty MLB ballparks. Teams just need to follow the Tampa Rays model of playing in front of social distancing-friendly home crowds. You can easily fit 10,000 fans in parks spaced way more than 6' apart!

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

I'll go with the MDs and people who've dedicated their careers to infectious disease over baseball fans on this one.

For a sobering statistic, given the overwhelming of the healthcare system in Italy...this is obviously not the only number that matters, but it shows why flattening the curve to make sure the system is not overwhelmed is so important:

Hospital beds per 1000 people, 2017 (except US, which is a 2016 number):

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

Yes, what happens to all these businesses that are being forced to shutdown? Their expenses don't go to zero, when their income drops to zero. A lot of businesses are going to be bankrupt long before the shutdowns end.

At some point we will pass a threshold where damage done by preventative measures outweighs their benefit to the general public. In fact, with some of these bans/restrictions already extended out several months I think we've gone past that threshold already.

Yes, what happens to all these businesses that are being forced to shutdown? Their expenses don't go to zero, when their income drops to zero. A lot of businesses are going to be bankrupt long before the shutdowns end.

Probably true. These are not easy decisions.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006

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