Tropical Depression CARLOTTA

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL CCA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012
CORRECTED TO REFLECT DISSIPATION AT 72 HR
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS DISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN
OF CARLOTTA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE
DECREASING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW SQUALLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING
FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD
SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM MOST LIKELY WILL MEANDER OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 17.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER AVILA
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