/m/hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

"Steroid Era" players have been on the ballot for almost 20 years. We've known about them for more than 10 and McGwire himself has been on the ballot for more than 5. Barry Larkin, a player whose career was in the middle of the steroids era, had no problems at all getting in.

Don't worry, I'm sure they will be fine next year when Greg Maddux, probably Tom Glavine, hopefully Frank Thomas and possibly Jeff Kent or Mike Mussina are joined by Veterans Comittee people like Joe Torre, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox and maybe finally Marvin Miller. Oh, and maybe a high-up holdover like Craig Biggio or Jack Morris.

Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro are relieved to hear it. Jeff Bagwell has been on the ballot 3 times. A second baseman with 3,000 hits, and the greatest hitting catcher of all time didn't get elected. This is a lot more than just Bonds and Clemens.

Don't worry, I'm sure they will be fine next year when Greg Maddux, probably Tom Glavine, hopefully Frank Thomas and possibly Jeff Kent or Mike Mussina are joined by Veterans Comittee people like Joe Torre, Tony La Russa and Bobby Cox. Oh, and maybe a high-up holdover like Craig Biggio or Jack Morris.

Yeah, this is a blip, which won't happen again for a while. But there won't be that many players. Maddux is the only lock among the players, with Biggio, Glavine and Thomas the only ones who have a chance to join him.

Edit: Oh, and I suppose you can't rule out Piazza, though I doubt he'll make the climb all the way up.

Yeah, this is a blip, which won't happen again for a while. But there won't be that many players. Maddux is the only lock among the players, with Biggio, Glavine and Thomas the only ones who have a chance to join him.

Yeah, Kent will eventually get in (probably) but not for a few years. Mussina is the definition of a bubble guy. But even if it was just Maddux + the 3 managers, the place would probably have the highest attendance since Ripken/Gwynn.

Prior to the Braun suspension (and whatever ELSE is coming down the pike), I thought 2 or 3 players were getting in next year (Biggio, perhaps Morris, Maddux).

Post Braun suspension, I would not be surprised if next year is another shutout, UNLESS the HOF tweaks its rules (e.g., increasing the number of potential candidates on a ballot to 15; tossing out blank ballots; express instruction is given to writers that they should NOT consider steroids / PEDs when submitting their ballot).

Post Braun suspension, I would not be surprised if next year is another shutout, UNLESS the HOF tweaks its rules (e.g., increasing the number of potential candidates on a ballot to 15; tossing out blank ballots; express instruction is given to writers that they should NOT consider steroids / PEDs when submitting their ballot).

Barring his own PED revelation, there is no chance Maddux fails to make it next year. None whatsoever. He could see his support fall to just over 90 percent instead of the 95+ he could have expected if he entered in an ordinary year, but that's the extent any of this will have on his election.

One thing to keep in mind: Despite the 2013 shutout, the voters aren't trying to elect no one. They just couldn't reach 75 percent agreement on a single candidate this year for a variety of reasons. None of those reasons will have any bearing on Greg Maddux's candidacy.

Beyond steroids, I think there is a tendency to raise the bar on what a HOFer is anyway. Maybe that comes out of steroids but it sure seems that the voters have gotten a lot more demanding.

Absolutely. On top of that, there are just weird ballot dynamics at work. Given the ballot he was on, Biggio was going to struggle to get 75 percent on the first ballot, with or without the steroids mess. I think he makes up the gap next year, but I always said it was possible he'd have to wait 2-3 years.

It'll be interesting. Kent is hard to read with the voters. He was the anti-Bonds back in SF and has the most home runs by a second baseman, two things that should excite the writers. But... he was viewed as a jerk (looked good next to Bonds but next to anyone else not so much), didn't cross any magic numbers (just shy of 2500 hits, 23 HR shy of 400, under 100 SB), strangely had just the one year under 100 OPS+ (a 96 his final year) but didn't hang around either as he played 100+ games every single season he was in the majors. On WAR he is just 18th on the next ballot (21 guys with 50+ WAR on it) so few statistically inclined will vote for him. Yeah, the more I look at it the more I can see Kent getting the Whittaker treatment of one and done despite having a good HOF case.

Btw, has there ever been a ballot other than the very first one with 3 guys over 100 WAR? 11 at 70+? I strongly suspect Palmeiro will drop off this time. I'll also be annoyed if Jack Morris gets in as he is ranked #22 by WAR, same in James HOF standards, 18th by the HOF Monitor, 23rd by WAR7 and JAWS. Heck, even by his 'strong suit' of wins he is just 5th. If a vet committee puts him in, so be it, but when you have a stuffed ballot like this how on earth can you put a check mark next to Morris?

I'll also be annoyed if Jack Morris gets in as he is ranked #22 by WAR, same in James HOF standards, 18th by the HOF Monitor, 23rd by WAR7 and JAWS. Heck, even by his 'strong suit' of wins he is just 5th. If a vet committee puts him in, so be it, but when you have a stuffed ballot like this how on earth can you put a check mark next to Morris?

He won't. I think he's a lock for the Vet's Committee down the road, but the fact that he basically made no progress in 2013 and that there is one starting pitcher HoF lock and another potential first-ballot SP joining the ballot this year pretty much eliminates him going in through the BBWAA.

Btw, has there ever been a ballot other than the very first one with 3 guys over 100 WAR?

Well, the second ballot had 6, 3 got elected. So 1938 had 3 as well, one went in. Aside from that, probably not. There have been only 31 players to top 100, 9 of whom went in in the first 3 elections, and another (Gehrig) who never appeared on a ballot*, and 2 more who are not yet eligible (RJ, and ARod). So, only 19 available 100 WAR players since 1938. Probably every one of them prior to Bonds/Clemens went in on the first ballot.

I could see things getting really witch-hunty in the near future, and there's a couple of writers out there who have expressed in the past that they would vote for no one from the steroids era. Plus there's always a few who vote for no player the first time they are on the ballot.

Suffice it to say that I would not dare go as far as you have in stating that there's no chance Maddux doesn't go in, UNLESS it's revealed that he was roiding.

I could see things getting really witch-hunty in the near future, and there's a couple of writers out there who have expressed in the past that they would vote for no one from the steroids era. Plus there's always a few who vote for no player the first time they are on the ballot.

Suffice it to say that I would not dare go as far as you have in stating that there's no chance Maddux doesn't go in, UNLESS it's revealed that he was roiding.

86% of the electorate voted for Barry Larkin just two years ago (Robbie Alomar got 90% the year before that and the same comments here apply equally well to him). Larkin's and Maddux's careers equally spanned the "steroid era". They both peaked at the same time in the mid-90s (Maddux won the Cy in Larkin's MVP season). I would be very surprised to find voters holding steroids against Greg Maddux in a way that they did not hold them against Barry Larkin. There's no evidence that the number of "I won't vote for anybody" voters is anywhere close to enough to drop an otherwise slam-dunk, no-doubter, 98% vote-getter below 75%: Bagwell, Biggio, and Piazza were always going to be much closer to the borderline on their first ballot than 355-win and 4-time Cy Young award-winner Greg Maddux.

Why so bitter, Mr. Mouse? I made another centaur joke for you on the other thread.

True. OK you are back on.

Side Note: I have no idea why my handle is "Bitter Mouse". I have no recollection where that name came from or what I was thinking at the time. I am not a bitter person, and while small, not fascinated with Mice. I have "brand equity" so I keep it, but honestly it puzzles me what I was thinking. I should come up with a complex story that explains it I guess - maybe involving alien abduction.

OK, let me see if I understand how the typical BBWAA writer thinks (I know, I’m going to a scary place here):

Name of Player-Reason I didn’t vote for him:

B Bonds-Steroids plus I don’t like him
R Clemens-Steroids plus I don’t like him
C Biggio-See J Bagwell
J Bagwell-See C Biggio
J Morris-I wanted to vote for him and I used to instead of B Blyleven but then people found out about it and laughed at me so now I’m afraid to vote for him
M Piazza-Didn’t like the way he looked (bacne?) plus he threw like a girl
T Raines-He used different drugs than I do
L Smith-I thought it was Lonnie Smith so I didn’t vote for him but then I found out it was Lee Smith. Darn! I would’ve voted for him!
C Schilling-Didn’t win enough games, and getting the big “W” is what the pitcher's job is.
E Martinez-I hate the DH so I will never ever vote for a player who ever played DH (I even refused to vote for Hank Aaron back in the day)
A Trammell-Even though his career looks a lot like Barry Larkin’s who did get elected, but Barry had that sudden big HR year in ’96 that made me suspicious so I didn’t vote for him either. What was the question?
L Walker-He played at Coors Field, didn’t he? I never vote for anyone who played at Coors Field.
F McGriff-He didn’t hit 500 HRs. If he had just taken steroids so he could’ve reached 500 HRs but if he didn’t look any bigger then maybe I might’ve voted for him.
D Murphy-Isn’t that the CF who used to play in Oakland back in the ‘80s? He never did anything, why should I vote for him?
M McGwire-Don’t know who this imposter is. Now, Mark McGuire, that’s the guy who took steroids, so I know I ain’t voting for him. Didn't see him on the ballot, though.
D Mattingly-Wait, isn’t he the Dodgers manager? I didn’t think we were voting on managers.
S Sosa-I don’t vote for guys who suddenly have trouble speaking English. I didn’t vote for Bobby Clemente, either.
R Palmeiro-He waved his finger. I didn’t like that.

Now, if only they would put someone on the ballot I could stand to vote for, we might get somebody elected!

Despite the 2013 shutout, the voters aren't trying to elect no one. They just couldn't reach 75 percent agreement on a single candidate this year for a variety of reasons. None of those reasons will have any bearing on Greg Maddux's candidacy.

I think there's one reason which will have bearing and that is the number of qualified candidates on the ballot. Perhaps nothing else will touch Maddux, but this one will. I'm still of a mind, with you and others, that he will get the requisite 75%, but having at least 10 to 15 (depending on your criteria) returning qualified candidates, plus hitting the ballot with 4 others, means he will be splitting the votes with an historically high number of qualified candidates. Combine this with the recent trend of voters to include fewer names on their ballots and it's easy to see why he might not be considered a lock by some.

Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro are relieved to hear it. Jeff Bagwell has been on the ballot 3 times. A second baseman with 3,000 hits, and the greatest hitting catcher of all time didn't get elected. This is a lot more than just Bonds and Clemens.

Sosa and Raffy definitely taking the steroid heat, unfairly in Sosa's case. Bagwell was always going to take a few years -- he has worse counting stats than Fred McGriff, we should be happy so many voters realize how much better he was -- but, yes, baseless roid suspicions might be the difference between where he is and being where Biggio is. Similarly baseless roid suspicions might have been the difference between Biggio and election. Both Biggio and Bagwell are near-locks for induction though.

Piazza was never going in first ballot. Only one C has ever gone in first ballot -- Bench who was a great hitter and a great defender. Piazza's defensive rep was almost certainly keeping him out on the first ballot and, if Bonds and Clemens had gotten the votes their on-field performance deserved, Piazza never had a prayer of making it in on that ballot.

Meanwhile Trammell and Raines have doubled their vote %s over the last 4 years.

The system is clearly broken in terms of Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire and Palmeiro. That breakage has caused at least a slowdown for guys like Biggio, Bagwell and Piazza (and possibly Thomas) but likely only a slowdown. That breakage has had little/no effect on Raines, Trammell, McGriff, Walker, Edgar up to this point. It will start to affect them only because Bonds, Clemens, etc. voters will run out of ballot slots soon but they were going to run out of ballot slots anyway barring an unprecedented rate of induction.

If there's a universal concensus that a player is the best and most deserving on the ballot, it doesn't matter how crowded it is. The most crowded ballot (in terms of names per ballot) of the last 20 years was in 1999, and it had two guys get around 98% - Nolan Ryan & George Brett.

Maddux will get 98%. Maybe 97%. If anyone offers you some action on 75% or lower for him, take that damn bet - he's going well over.

In New York, each county consists of a number of "towns" (or, as some states call them, "townships"). My home county (Orange) has 20 towns.

"Villages" are incorporated places with their own mayor and village board, police and fire, etc. (Some villages share services with the town in which they reside.) There are 19 villages in Orange County.

"Cities" are basically larger villages, with all their own services. (Orange County has three: Port Jervis, Middletown and Newburgh.) Cities are old; the last city to incorporate in New York State was Rye, in 1942. (Yes, the one mentioned in "American Pie".)

"Hamlets" are unincorporated places, ranging from a few thousand people to a few houses. Some hamlets are referred to as "Census-designated places". (Don't ask.)