New York Yankees, welcome to Houston, meet the Astros and Dallas Keuchel, and boom, you just got shut out! That’s how I will remember tonight’s game. The offense looked helpess for much of the night as Keuchel induced a bunch of weak contact and strikeouts to prevail through the game. Things got quite interesting in the ninth with the bases loaded and two outs for New York, but the Yankees scored zilch to drop the first game of the four-game series 4-0 in Houston.

Disarmed

The Yankees didn’t score on that pitch. (Source: Getty)

The Yankees had a bit of an orthodox lineup tonight. Chris Young leadoff? Gregorio Petit? Well, Joe Girardi had a RHH-heavy lineup out for tonight due to the fact that Keuchel has been like, a death angel against lefty hitters (they are hitting .140/.180/.200 off him so yeah).

But yeah, man is Dallas Keuchel nasty. He’s the embodiment of a great baseball pitcher that doesn’t light up the radar gun at all – probably a part of the reason why he was only a seventh rounder back in 2009 MLB Draft. His formula is simple – locate to low corners, cut, sink, tail the ball, change speeds, and that slider … well, he’s pretty nasty.

One Yankee batter that hit Keuchel hard (“hard” is a very relative term here) was Chris Young. Not only did he have singles in the first two at-bats, Young clocked a huge foul that just missed being a homer in the third AB (he ended up striking out swinging though, oh well).

The Yankees didn’t even get their first runner into scoring position until the ninth. Ninth! In fact, they didn’t just have a runner on second – they got the bases loaded with two outs. A-Rod hit a single with two outs and Mark Teixeira followed it up with a four-pitch walk. Carlos Beltran then hit a single to left to load the bases but Jose Pirela grounded out to third to end the game.

This is my face when I think of ice cream. (Source: Getty)

When it was all said and done, Keuchel threw nine innings of shutout baseball, allowing six hits, walking one and striking out twelve, good for a game score of 86. Yes, there were some questionable strike calls from Joe West – it seemed like he called a lot of borderline pitches as strikes and some days, umpires will be like that. Keuchel pitched to how West would call strikes on certain part of (or out of) the zone and he succeeded. Oh well.

Warren-ting a starting spot?

(Source: getty)

There was a lot of speculation that this might be the last start for Adam Warren before he gets moved to bullpen. Well, if it is … it was a decent departure. The righty went 5.2 IP, allowed five hits, three runs (two earned), a walk and four strikeouts. Actually, that line is one out away from being 6.0 IP with two earned runs, which looks much, much shinier. I’d call it a good start.

In the second inning, the Yankees just barely missed an inning-ending double play when Colby Rasmus beat Stephen Drew‘s throw to first. The next batter, Preston Tucker, lined a double to left where Pirela was playing him way towards center and took awhile to get to the ball. Rasmus scored as a result and Astros drew the first blood. 1-0.

Warren allowed another run in the fourth inning when Colby Rasmus hit a sacrifice fly with runners on first and third with one out. Jose Altuve, the runner on third, scored easily but Beltran’s throw got Luis Valbuena, the runner on first, out when he tried to get to the second base. How about that, a sacrifice double play!

In the sixth, Warren struck out Carlos Correa but allowed a single to Altuve. With Valbuena batting, Altuve attempted to steal second and John Ryan Murphy‘s throw sailed to the outfield, allowing Altuve to advance to third. Warren did end up striking out Valbuena but allowed an RBI single to Evan Gattis, 3-0. Girardi then pulled the plug on Warren’s day and brought in Chris Capuano.

I don’t think this was a bad start by any means. Warren was no Keuchel but I think he warrants staying in the rotation. I still have tons more trust in him than, let’s say, CC Sabathia. Unfortunately that probably won’t be the case.

Leftovers

Capuano came in to relieve Warren and had another meh-outing. He went 2.1 innings pitched, allowed two hits and an earned run while walking two and striking out two. At this point he’s just on the roster to eat innings while the team is losing (or winning by a huge margin) and that’s definitely a role that can be nice to have, I guess.

“Nice work as a starter, Adam. But we have another job in mind for you.” (Presswire)

In a week or so, the Yankees will send a starter to the bullpen and go back to a normal five-man rotation. All signs point to Adam Warren being the odd man out even though he has been no worse than their third best starting pitcher this season. He’s had success in a setup role and the Yankees do need help there, so it’s an easy move. It would be an undeserved demotion to say the least.

Tonight’s series opener against the Astros may be Warren’s chance to show the Yankees he belongs in the rotation, not the bullpen. I honestly have no idea what he needs to do to keep his rotation spot — anything short of a shutout may seal his fate. Life ain’t fair, man. Having too many starting pitchers is a good thing … as long as the five best are actually in the rotation. Here is the Houston lineup and here is New York’s party like it’s 2013 lineup:

It’s sunny and hot in Houston. The Minute Maid Park roof will probably be closed for air conditioning reasons, not because it’s raining. Tonight’s game will begin at 8:10pm ET and you can watch on YES locally and MLB Network nationally, depending where you live. Enjoy the game.

Roster Moves: As you can tell from the lineup, both Drew and Petit are back. Drew was activated off paternity leave and Petit was recalled from Triple-A Scranton. Branden Pinder and Diego Moreno were sent down yesterday to make room on the roster. The Yankees are rolling with a six-man bullpen.

Injury Update: Andrew Miller (forearm) played catch again and everything went well. He’ll take tomorrow off then throw again Saturday … Jacoby Ellsbury (knee) is running at 75-85% and isn’t ready for rehab games yet … Brett Gardner and Brian McCann are fine, just an off-day against the lefty starter.

Misc. Update: Andy Pettitte was in the clubhouse and in full uniform before the game. He only threw batting practice though. No comeback planned.

Outfielder Aaron Judge and catcher Gary Sanchez have been selected to participate in the 2015 Futures Game, MLB announced earlier today. Judge will suit up for Team USA and Sanchez will play for the World Team, because duh. The full rosters are right here. Baseball America has free mini-scouting reports on all the players as well: Team USA and World Team.

Judge, 23, is New York’s best prospect. He is hitting .277/.345/.500 (139 wRC+) with 16 doubles and 12 home runs in 66 games this season, most with Double-A Trenton and a handful with Triple-A Scranton. Judge stands out for his size (6-foot-7 and 230 lbs.) and his raw power, though he has a line drive approach in games, so he doesn’t always tap into his pop. His athleticism and right field defense are assets as well and often overlooked.

The 22-year-old Sanchez is currently on the Double-A DL with a bruised hand after being hit by a foul tip, though the injury is considered minor and he’s expected back soon. Sanchez is hitting .256/.313/.432 (113 wRC+) with seven doubles and eighth homers in 45 games with the Thunder in 2015. He’s a bat first prospect with big power who is still trying to improve behind the plate so he can catch long-term.

Sanchez. (Star-Ledger)

Teams do have input for the Futures Game — Bill Shaikin says the Dodgers didn’t approve Corey Seager’s selection even though he’s the best prospect in the minors right now, for example — so it’s possible the Yankees declined to allow right-hander Luis Severino to participate, possibly because they are considering calling him up at some point. Then again, players who are called up are simply replaced on the Futures Game roster. Who knows?

It’s also possible the Yankees pushed for Sanchez to be included so they could showcase him for trades. Crazy? Maybe. But Peter O’Brien was a Futures Gamer last summer and was then traded a few weeks later. If Sanchez goes 0-for-2 in the Futures Game, no one blinks an eye. But if he homers off a top pitching prospect, well hey now, someone will take notice of that. It’s a no-lose situation for the Yankees. Well, unless Sanchez gets hurt, but you know what I mean.

This is the first Futures Game selection for both Judge and Sanchez. Severino and O’Brien represented the Yankees last season and Rafael DePaula the year before that. The Futures Game is Sunday, July 12th in Cincinnati. The final day before the All-Star break. Congrats to Judge and Sanchez. It’s always cool to be recognized as one of the best prospects in the game.

The 2015 season is weird, man. The Astros are actually good now after spending the last half-decade as the worst team in baseball. Intentionally, I might add. Houston basically went through the baseball version of tanking. They hoarded draft picks and traded every last veteran for prospects. I guess it worked. For the first half of the season, anyway.

What Have The Astros Done Lately?

The Angels beat the Astros in 13 innings yesterday and Houston dropped two of three in the series overall. They’ve lost four of their last six games. The ‘Stros are still in first place in the AL West at 42-32 with a +47 run differential. That’s the second best record and third best run differential in the AL.

Offense & Defense

The Astros have an extreme offense. They lead MLB in home runs (107) and strikeout rate (24.9%), rank third in stolen bases (57), and bottom ten in both AVG (.241) and OBP (.308). It all adds up an average of 4.47 runs per game and a team 104 wRC+. The Yankees have scored 45% of their runs on homers. That’s a lot. The Astros? They’re at 48%. I guess no one told them they’ll never win anything hitting all these home runs, amirite? Anyway, the Astros are without IF Jed Lowrie (finger) and OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring), neither of whom is due back to this series.

Correa. (Presswire)

Manager A.J. Hinch builds his lineup around OF George Springer (141 wRC+), or, rather, behind Springer because he’s been hitting leadoff. The recently called up SS Carlos Correa (146 wRC+ in limited time) bats second. OF Colby Rasmus (125 wRC+) has played well in a platoon role and OF Preston Tucker (109 wRC+) has also done well since being called up a few weeks ago. 1B Chris Carter (101 wRC+) has been league average-ish thanks to his power (12 HR), not his batting average (.198).

2B Jose Altuve (93 wRC+) has somewhat predictably been unable to repeat last year’s success — I’m not sure anyone is a true talent .341 hitter these days — but he’s still a solid and very aggressive hitter. He never walks (5.9%) or strikes out (10.0%). DH Evan Gattis (87 wRC+) mashes taters and does little else at the plate. C Jason Castro (89 wRC+) has been okay for a catcher and UTIL Luis Valbuena (103 wRC+) has 19 homers and a .201 AVG. I guess that makes him the rich man’s Stephen Drew. C Hank Conger (114 wRC+), IF Marwin Gonzalez (82 wRC+), and OF Domingo Santana (132 wRC+ in very limited time) fill out the bench with their small sample size stats.

Depending on your choice of metric, the Astros are either a great defensive team (UZR) or a poor defensive team (DRS). Defense stats, man. Springer and Rasmus are great in the outfield and both Altuve and Correa are strong on the middle infield. Altuve seems to have the Brett Gardner problem — the defensive stats hate him even though everything else says he’s really good. Carter is basically a DH at first base and Valbuena’s fine in the field. Castro and Conger are both top notch pitch-framers. You can run on Conger (6% caught steal rate!) but not Castro (38%).

Pitching Matchups

Thursday (8pm ET): RHP Adam Warren (vs. HOU) vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel (vs. NYY)
Over the last year and a half, the 27-year-old Keuchel has developed into a bonafide top of the rotation starter, pitching to 2.72 ERA (3.22 FIP) in his last 307.1 innings. He has a 2.35 ERA (3.25 FIP) in 15 starts and 107.1 innings this season, and he does it by being the most extreme ground ball pitcher in the majors. Keuchel owns 64.1% ground ball rate in 2015, one year after posting a 63.5% ground ball rate, which was MLB’s highest grounder rate by a qualified starter in four seasons. He doesn’t give up homers as you’d expect (0.59 HR/9), and both his strikeout (19.9%) and walk (7.2%) rates are league average-ish. Righties (.255 wOBA) have had a lot more success again him than lefties (.172 wOBA), relatively speaking. Keuchel gets all those grounders with three pitches: upper-80s two-seamer (75.4 GB% vs. 49.5 GB% MLB average), upper-70s slider (52.7 GB% vs. 43.9 GB% average), and an upper-70s changeup (59.6 GB% vs. 47.8 GB% average). He also throws an upper-80s four-seamer to keep hitters honest. Keuchel’s an elite ground ball pitcher. His success is not a fluke.

Friday (8pm ET): RHP Nathan Eovaldi (vs. HOU) vs. RHP Vincent Velasquez (No vs. NYY)
The Astros called up the 23-year-old Velasquez earlier this month and he has a 4.15 ERA (3.80 FIP) in three starts and 13 innings. His strikeout rate (29.3%) is great but Velasquez has walked way too many batters (17.2%) and not gotten any ground balls (22.6%). He’s been able to keep the ball in the park for the time being (0.69 HR/9). Either his home run rate or his ground ball rate will climb going forward. Rates that low coexist only in small sample size land. Velasquez is your classic power arm with a mid-90 four-seam fastball. He’s thrown his low-80s curveball more than his low-80s changeup in his brief MLB time, but scouting reports from his prospect days (you know, April and May) say the change is actually his second best pitch, not the curve.

Saturday (4pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. HOU) vs. LHP Brett Oberholtzer (vs. NYY)
Oberholtzer, 25, has been limited to six starts and 32 innings this season by a nagging blister problem. He has a 2.81 ERA (3.39 FIP) in his limited action with great ground ball (54.0%) and home run (0.28 HR/9) numbers but below-average strikeout (16.7%) and walk (9.4%) rates. Lefties (.344 wOBA) have hit him harder than righties (.301 wOBA), which has actually been the case his entire career, though not to that extreme. Oberholtzer operates with upper-80s two and four-seam fastballs, and his low-80s changeup is his primary secondary offering. He’ll also throw some low-80s sliders and upper-70s curveballs per start, but not many.

McHugh. (Presswire)

Sunday (2pm ET): RHP Michael Pineda (vs. HOU) vs. RHP Collin McHugh (vs. NYY)
The Astros got great work out of McHugh last season (2.73 ERA and 3.11 FIP) but he’s crashed back to Earth this year (4.80 ERA and 4.21 FIP) because his strikeout (19.0%) and home run (1.25 HR/9) rates have both taken a step back. The 28-year-old still isn’t walking anyone (5.5%) and is getting an average amount of ground balls (44.4%), but his reverse platoon split (.359 vs. .321 wOBA in favor of righties) doesn’t match up with the rest of his career. McHugh has a four-seam fastball right around 90 mph and he uses it only 35% of the time or so. He leans heavily on his mid-80s slider and low-70s curveball, throwing them almost 60% of the time combined. Crazy. He’ll also throw a handful of low-80s changeups per start.

Bullpen Status
A big reason for Houston’s success this year is their greatly improved bullpen. This group has a 2.61 ERA (3.18 FIP) overall compared to a 4.80 ERA (4.11 FIP) last year and a 4.92 ERA (5.09 FIP) the year before that. Closer RHP Luke Gregerson (3.38 FIP) is set up by RHP Pat Neshek (3.36 FIP) and RHP Will Harris (3.05 FIP) most nights.

LHP Tony Sipp (2.99 FIP) is Hinch’s high-leverage lefty guy while LHP Joe Thatcher (1.85 FIP) is more of middle innings matchup guy. RHP Chad Qualls (4.44 FIP) and RHP Josh Fields (1.76 FIP) round out the bullpen. They don’t have a true long man at the moment, just a bunch of short relief guys. Also, literally everyone pitched in the 13-inning game yesterday, so the ‘pen won’t be very fresh tonight. Check out the status of Joe Girardi‘s bullpen with our Bullpen Workload page, then head over to Crawfish Boxes and Astros County for the latest and greatest on the ‘Stros.

Don’t be like Mike
I’ll let Forrest Gump succinctly recap Monday night’s 11-8 loss to the Phillies: “[Baseball] is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re gonna get.”

The Phillies entered the game with the very worst record in baseball, the fewest runs per game of any team, and they hadn’t won a road game since before Memorial Day. Nothing like a trip to the Bronx to cure all your problems! So, of course, they set season-highs in runs (11) and hits (18) as they crushed the Yankees in the series opener.

Michael Pineda was clobbered and didn’t make it out of the fourth inning, posting perhaps the worst pitching line of his career: 3 1/3 IP, 11 hits, 8 runs, 0 strikeouts. The last Yankee pitcher to give up that many runs and hits without recording a strikeout in a game was a 45-year-old Tommy John on Aug. 28, 1988 against the Angels.

Pineda (and most of the Yankee pitchers) had a ton of trouble with Phillies rookie Maikel Franco, who went 4-for-5 with two homers and five RBIs. He is the first player ever to produce at least four hits and 5 RBIs in his debut at Yankee Stadium. The last player as young as Franco (22 years old) with that many hits and RBIs in a game against the Yankees was the Indians’ Pat Seerey in 1945.

A lot of runs
Again, I’ll use a quote — this time from Joe Girardi — to sum up yet another blowout loss to the worst team in baseball: “It’s not enjoyable to watch, and it’s not enjoyable to be a part of it. The last three days have been a struggle … it’s been a lot of runs.”

Yup, a lot of runs. For the just the second time in franchise history the Yankees allowed more than 10 runs and more than 10 hits in three straight games. The only other time it happened was June 20-22, 1912 against the Red Sox.

If Maikel Franco makes the All-Star team, he can probably thank the Yankees. For the second straight night, the Phillies rookie crushed the Yankee pitchers, going 2-for-3 with a homer and five RBIs. He is the first player ever to drive in at least five runs in back-to-back games against the Yankees.

Okay, so it’s official, Dellin Betances is a human being. The right-hander gave up four runs in the ninth inning and saw his ERA skyrocket from 0.26 to 1.25. It was his first loss in his 110th career game, dropping his record to 9-1.

The only other Yankee to win his first nine decisions in the major leagues was Whitey Ford in 1950. And only five other players to debut in the last 100 years appeared in more games before their first loss than Betances (the record is 152 games by Clay Rapada).

Another ace bites the dust
The Yankees couldn’t get a win against Sean O’Sullivan or Kevin Correia, but somehow they managed to beat one of the best pitchers in baseball, Cole Hamels, in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. #weirdbaseball

Ivan Nova was super (sorry, bad pun) in his first major-league start in 14 months, allowing just three hits and no runs in 6 2/3 innings. He is just the third Yankee in the last 20 seasons to pitch at least 6 2/3 scoreless innings and allow no more than three hits in his season debut. The others are Orlando Hernandez in 2002 against the Rays and David Cone in 1996 against the Indians.

The Yankees banged out 10 runs on 15 hits, but none of them left the park, making it the first time the Yankees have scored double-digit runs without a homer at Yankee Stadium since a 13-11 loss to the Indians on May 29, 2010 (thank you, Joba Chamberlain).

Entering this week, the Yankees had a .500 or better regular season record against every major-league franchise, including a 12-12 mark against the Phillies. By dropping two of three games in this series, they are 13-14 against them — so the Phillies are now the only team the Yankees have a losing record against in the regular season all-time.

The Yankees dropped two of three to the lowly Phillies earlier this week, though at least they were able to salvage the series with a win yesterday. Now they’re off to Houston for a four-game set with the Astros. The Astros are good now. That won’t be an easy series. Anyway, here are some thoughts.

1. This year’s Yankees seem to be the opposite of last year’s Yankees. Last year the Yankees couldn’t score but they always got competent pitching, even when starters were dropping like flies in the first half of the season. This year they always seem to be getting enough offense and the pitching is letting them down. It’s not just the run of poor starts earlier this week either. The middle of the bullpen has been shaky for much of the season and earlier this year Adam Warren was pitching like a reliever masquerading as a starter. I’d rather have an all-hit/no-pitching team than a no-hit/all-pitching team if I had to pick one — you can slug your way into the postseason, the mid-2000s Yankees did it every year, but pure pitching and defense clubs seem to have a harder time getting to October — but the Yankees were supposed to be a strong prevention team this year. That part of their game has been woefully inadequate of late. The offense has better way better than expected.

2. I think the only player on the roster who is falling short of expectations is Chase Headley. I guess Michael Pineda too, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he hovered around a 4.00 ERA going forward now that he’s venturing into uncharted workload territory following shoulder surgery. Headley has underperformed but everyone else on the roster is either meeting reasonable preseason expectations or approaching the best case scenario. So Headley is pretty much the only guy on the roster we can point to and say “the Yankees will be in better shape once he turns it around.” That’s actually a good thing. You don’t want to be waiting for multiple players to turn things around. That said, the Yankees have just one guy underperforming and they still aren’t good enough to pull away in the AL East. I think Headley will turn things around. Eventually. At some point. I think. Then what?

3. Speaking of Headley, errors are a poor way to evaluate defense, we know that, but geez man, 16 errors already? As best I can remember only one of those errors came on a non-routine play too — this one against the Blue Jays. The other 15 have come on routine or at least makeable plays. Headley is still making non-routine and occasionally spectacular plays at what I consider an above-average rate compared to other third basemen, but the sudden inability to make routine plays is getting frustrating. (We’re talking about 16 errors in roughly 200 total chances at third, so it’s basically one error every dozen chances or so.) It’s got to be a mental thing too, not a loss in skills, right? He’s still picking hot shot grounders with the best of ’em. The infield defense was supposed to be a strength, and now that Didi Gregorius has gotten more comfortable, Headley is the weak link in the field. Baseball is weird, man.

(Presswire)

4. I’m not a fan of the whole “when this guy comes back from his injury it’ll be like making a trade!” line of thinking. When guys come back from injury, you’re right back where you started, not better off. Jacoby Ellsbury won’t be like a trade deadline pickup, he’ll just be making the team whole again. That said, I think Ivan Nova is a little different, because you can never really count on pitchers coming off a major injury to contribute, no matter how high the success rate for the surgery. Coming into the season I had the “anything he gives them this year is a bonus” mindset with Nova, and, based on what we saw yesterday, it sure looks like Ivan will be able to help this season. Yeah, it was just one start and that doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, but he looks healthy and he was consistently pumping 93-95 mph. If he’d come out struggling to top 90 mph with no command, it would be a red flag. Nova looked like the pre-Tommy John surgery of himself and that’s a pitcher the Yankees didn’t have earlier this season. He is like a trade deadline pickup. Sorta.

5. Mark Teixeira‘s recent neck injury scares me, probably more than it should. He had three hits yesterday but it seems like the kind of injury we could wind up pointing back to in August and September saying “Teixeira was mashing until he hurt his neck.” Maybe the last few seasons have made me paranoid. That’s probably it. Teixeira’s been really good this year and the Yankees absolutely need him to continue being really good to contend. I’m not sure they’ll be able to hang in the race if his offense tanks like it did in the second half last year. Carlos Beltran has been much better of late and Alex Rodriguez has raked all year, but those guys are still injury risks. Adding a bat may not be a top priority at the trade deadline but I do consider it a need. Second base is the obvious spot to upgrade and Ben Zobrist is the top target for me. He fits the roster too well. (He fits every roster well.) Yeah, Stephen Drew mashes homers, but a .190 AVG and a .258 OBP is not acceptable for an everyday player. The Yankees should be actively seeking an upgrade.

6. Either it’s one hell of a coincidence or the Yankees have a pretty clear plan for Aaron Judge — he had 278 plate appearances with Low-A Charleston, 285 plate appearances with High-A Tampa, and 280 plate appearances with Double-A Trenton. Now he’s at Triple-A and will get about 280 plate appearances there the rest of the season. Give the brain trust a truth serum and I think they’d tell you they want Judge to be their everyday right fielder in 2016. How that happens … I don’t know. Beltran and A-Rod are still under contract next year. I guess the plan is wait until one gets hurt? A Brett Gardner trade is always possible but I find it very unlikely. He’s the best player on the team. (There, I said it.) Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself here. Judge has to master Triple-A first before becoming an MLB option, and who knows what the roster will look like heading into Spring Training next year. I do think the team’s perfect world plan has Judge in right on Opening Day 2016 though.