POLL-Oil prices likely to rebound in second half of 2015

Dec 22 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices are likely to bottom out
in the first half of 2015, until a possible slowdown in U.S.
shale production counters a supply glut exacerbated by OPEC's
decision not to cut output, a Reuters monthly survey showed.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries'
agreement last month to stand pat on output meant the onus for
any supply cutbacks was now on non-OPEC producers, primarily led
by U.S. shale oil, analysts said.

"Oil prices will be lower, making shale oil production less
attractive for investments, which are necessary to keep shale
oil production growing," Commerzbank's Carsten Fritsch said.

Oil is seen recovering in the second half as non-OPEC
production responds to lower prices, while demand picks up in
the course of the year, the poll showed.

The survey of 30 economists and analysts projected Brent
to average $74.00 a barrel next year and $80.30 in 2016.

The forecast for 2015 is $8.50 below the average projection
in the previous Reuters poll. The November poll number was down
$11.20 from October, marking the biggest downgrade in average
forecasts since the 2008 economic downturn.

Brent this month hit five-year lows below $60 a barrel, down
almost half from peaks reached in June. Brent has averaged
$100.57 so far this year.

Brent was up 74 cents at $62.12 on Monday. U.S. crude
was up 66 cents at $57.79 a barrel.

"In terms of the floor price, we think $60 per barrel will
be the level at which fast-rising U.S. shale oil producers will
feel the pinch," ANZ analyst Natalie Rampono said.

"Supply cuts above this level will be limited to other
smaller, high-cost U.S. and Canadian unconventional oil
producers. Although we think it will take six to 12 months for
these supply cuts to become apparent," she added.

Some analysts, however, were sceptical whether OPEC's stand
would serve as a deterrent to U.S. shale oil producers.

"The lag in oil production response from existing wells from
the U.S. suggests that only the marginal oil projects will be
discouraged at this stage," Vyanne Lai of National Australia
Bank said.

The poll forecast U.S. light crude would average $68.70 a
barrel next year, and $74.90 in 2016. U.S. crude has averaged
$93.99 so far in 2014.

"Some of the highly leveraged U.S. shale oil producers will
face serious trouble. In the long term, OPEC strategy should pay
off for OPEC as this strategy should lead to higher oil prices
from 2016/17 on," Hannes Loacker of Raiffeisen Bank said.

Raiffeisen is among the most bullish forecasters, projecting
Brent to average $80 a barrel in 2015, and is one of 11
institutions that had participated in the previous poll and
retained their outlook since then.

Of the 14 banks polled that have cut their forecasts since
the previous month's survey, Morgan Stanley slashed its
projection by $28 to an average 2015 Brent price of $70.

ANZ, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JBC, LBBW and Deutsche
Bank also lowered their North Sea crude forecast for next year
by more than $15 per barrel.

ABN AMRO had the highest Brent forecast at $85 for 2015,
while Nomisma Energia had the lowest at $59 a barrel.

Brent's premium to U.S. crude will narrow to
$5.30 a barrel in 2015 from $6.68 so far this year and $10.58 in
2013, the poll said.

(Reporting by Koustav Samanta and Vijaykumar Vedala in
Bengaluru; Editing by Dale Hudson)