3 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Interesting bullish forecast for oil considering your bearish forecast for $INDU and $COMPQ and bullish forecast for gold. For each respective market, will the real-time data follow your forecast for the most part? Or will deflation take over every market (oil, $INDU and $COMPQ) except precious metals? Great research.

Thanks, and in answer to your question: I have no idea. One of the things that is impacting all cyclical models, though commodities such as oil are somewhat insulated from its effects, is that the cycle models rely on historical data, which mostly comes from eras that did not have a highly activist and 'dirigiste' Federal Reserve.

Thanks again Paolo - although I'm firmly biased towards higher oil prices by early November, I'm expecting a corrective decline into early August. It seems to have started already, earlier than the late June expectation I had given the potential for a "surprise" Fed rate rise from the June FOMC meeting.

Although equity indices are not my primary trading tool, I'm expecting a challenge or slight breach of ATHs for at least the S&P 500 into next week. Whatever the outcome of the FOMC meeting (including the minutes), I'm expecting a corrective decline of sorts in rough correlation with oil.

It'll be interesting to see how your models react in both markets - interesting time aheads,