A possible form of relationship between our Growth scores and GDP Growth

AVERAGE GROWTH P.A.
OF GDP
%

GROWTH SCORES

Table 6 - RESULTS

Figures in bracketsare the Growth Scoresresulting from theDelphi

LAST20 YEARS(1978)

Increase or decrease ->in growth

NEXT20 YEARS

______________________

__________________

________________

________________

LOW GROWTH

Africa (4)

small increase

Africa (4.3)

less 2% pa

N. Africa (4.5)

small increase

N. Africa (4.9)

Growth Score

China (4.8)

increase

China (5.6)

less 6.5

India (5.2)

increase

India (5.8)

"

Soviet Satellites (5.5)

same

Soviet Satellites (5.6)

"

S. America (5.8)

increase

S. America (6.6)

"

Indo-China (5.9)

small decrease

Indo-China (5.7)

"

Middle East (5.9)

small decrease

Middle East (5.8)

"

USSR (5.92)

same

USSR (5.96)

"

MediterraneanCountries (6.06)

same

MediterraneanCountries (6.1)

MEDIUM GROWTH

UK (7)

decrease

UK (6.7)

2% - 5% pa

S. Africa (7.4)

large decrease

S. Africa (6.3)

Growth Score 6..5 - 8.75

Australia (7.8)

decrease

Australia (7.3)

"

W Europe (8.1)

large decrease

W. Europe (7.3)

"

N. America (8.5)

large decrease

N. America (7.5)

HIGH GROWTH

Japan (8.7)

large decrease

Japan (7.9)

The second round results indicated a sizeable reduction in world growth rates over the next twenty years.

All the developed world is forecast to show sizeable reduction in economic growth rates - but they will probably still be growing
faster than the rest of the world. While some areas show small to moderate increases in growth, these are not sufficient
to catch up with the West. Some areas also show decreased growth rates.

The Communist block is seen as proceeding at about the same growth rates. South America may increase theirs along with
China and India.

In terms of the enclosed Table 6 defining Low, Medium, and High growth rates, there are not many changing in the rankings. Japan
drops out of the High Growth into the Medium Growth category, but still remains the fastest growing area of the world.

South Africa drops out of the Medium Growth category, while South America is the only area to join this category.