In an audiotape posted on Internet, Osama Bin Laden threatened Europe with
punishment because of its “negligence in spite of the opportunity presented to
take the necessary measures” to stop the republishing of the Danish cartoons. It
also menaced the Vatican with retribution for an alleged role in incitement
"against religion." This al Qaeda warning would have been normal in Salafi Jihad
logic. This radical movement obviously considers the drawings as an ultimate
insult to Muslims and would unleash extreme violence in retaliation. Actually
one would have expected al Qaeda to strike back “for the cartoons offense” long
time ago. In fact, this particular audio is intriguing precisely because it is
too “political,” read too sophisticated. Bin Laden’s school of Jihadism would
have smitten first, explained later. So why is this message more peculiar than
previous ones? What can we read into it? In short, I see in it the imprints of
Jihadi "politicians” and strategists in international relations and deeply
immersed in the diplomatic games across the Mediterranean. Even though it is
indeed the voice of al Qaeda’s master but nevertheless one can see increasingly
the impact of political operatives on the movement’s public statements. Here is
why:

A raw al Qaeda reaction to the “infidel cartoons” would have been a strike back
into the heart of the enemy with simple harshness and highly ideological
brutality. But the audio tape has other points to make than just about the
drawings. The message is heavily targeting Europe, while using the “cartoon
Jihad” as a motive. Bin Laden, and the war room behind him are concerned about
the rise of tough national leaders on the continent: Sarcozy, Merkel, Brown and
a possible reemergence of Berlusconi's Party. In many spots in Europe, citizens
are rejecting the Jihadi intimidations and becoming vocal about it. France is
going to Chad, Germany has ships in the Eastern Mediterranean and Spain is
arresting more Salafists. But the traditional apologists towards the Islamist
agenda in Europe, remains strong. Al Qaeda wants to use the apologists against
the “resistance.” What better than threatening to strike at Europe’s peace if
its liberal values are not altered? In essence this is Bin Laden’s message:

Change your laws on liberties and freedom of expression or else. “If there is no
check on the freedom of your words then let your hearts be open to the freedom
of our hearts.” But a thorough investigation of the origination of this argument
leads not to al Qaeda’s traditional rhetoric -the group isn’t very concerned
with the change of laws in infidel lands- but to demands that have been made by
“long-range” Jihadists on European Governments. A simple check of archives shows
that it wasn't Bin laden or Zawahiri who have asked Europe to enact laws against
“insult to religion” but more “mainstream” Islamist forces and intellectuals.
Among them the Muslim Brotherhoods, the Union of Islamic Clerics (also
influenced by the Brotherhoods and headed by Sheikh Yusuf al Qardawi the
spiritual mentor of al Jazeera), a number of European based academics and the
bulk of Wahabi radical clerics. This revealing reality if anything shows one of
the two trends: Either al Qaeda is using the argumentation of political
Islamists to provoke a mass clash against Europe or is it that the “political
Jihadists” are now able to influence the war discourse of al Qaeda. In both
cases, it deserves a closer analysis.

Bin laden’s tape curiously repeats statements by commentators on al Jazeera who
accuses Europe of being the “associate” of Washington in a “War on Islam.” It
also accuses the “continent” of being hypocrite by refusing to compromise on its
“liberal” legal system while it makes “exceptions” when it comes to “exempt
American soldiers” from its own laws: An argument simply too complicated to al
Qaeda but often advanced by Islamist cadres on al Jazeera and online.

But the audio message nevertheless produces a classical series of threats a la
Bin Laden by promising revenge to be “seen.” It also goes on to indict the Pope
for “inspiring” this “crusade” and doesn’t miss a chance to incriminate the
“apostate” Saudi monarch for not defending Islam. The tape covers many other
issues such as the vital necessity of "Jihad" in Gaza an Iraq. With such a
mixture of rhetoric, how to read the letter? I would recommend looking at a
changing context in the Ben Ladenist messaging.

Few months ago, he sent out a piece with heavy Trotskyist overtones, using US
domestic references: The impact of “American” speech writers was evident. In
this audio message one can see the fingerprints of international (perhaps
European) Jihadists who seem to be frustrated by demands they made but not met
by the “renegade” European Governments. In the end, the message to the continent
is clear: Either you follow our advice and change your laws and accommodate our
ideological agenda or else, al Qaeda is unleashed on the continent.

The voice of these shadow “advisors” -or at least their arguments- have made
their way to the heart of al Qaeda’s messaging machine. From here on, it is up
to the Europeans to decipher this enigmatic statement. They have an opportunity
to breach a very powerful code which could answer loads of unresolved questions
on the continent.

And last but not least, al Jazeera's "rapid response" to the last two tapes came
in a show titled Ma wara's al khabar (Beyond the News). The anchor, interpreting
the message said Al Qaeda "is perhaps now an idea," hence very difficult to
defeat by counter terrorism measures. A powerful assertion as European security
services are bracing for potential strikes -in response to this tape but also in
retaliation to a Dutch documentary -assumable to be critical of the Koran- to be
released soon. The al Jazeera assessment about al Qaeda is relevant as it
projects the movement as invincible physically. More interesting, it coins Bin
Laden's threat as serious as it touches an issue of ijmaa bayna al muslimeen,
"consensus among Muslims." In other words, while the tape asserted so, it was al
Jazeera that claimed that "the cartoons issue has created an Ijmaa-consensus
among adherents." The confusion between what Bin Laden said "it should be" and
what the Qatari-funded channel said "it is" is somewhat worrisome. For the
millions of viewers, including many in Europe, the line is blurred. Then came al
Jazeera's "experts in Islamist movements." Mr Yasir al Zaatra from Jordan said
al Qaeda per se doesn't have to send militants to Europe because "local groups
could offer to wage operations on European soil." Pushing the comment farther
Zaatra added that "most likely, some groups may have already offered Bin Laden
to perpetrate attacks. He asserted that there are existing cells that would
carry out these attacks and Bin Laden would take credit. And to reinforce the
credibility of the threat, Zaatra referred (strangely) to a statement by Michael
Sheuer a former CIA officer who was in charge of the Bin Laden unit. Quoting
Sheuer, the al Jazeera analyst said "Bin Laden's threats are always executed."

Following him, another "expert on Jihadist groups," Dr Diya' al Zayyat said the
tape is a clear menace by whom he called (for the first time) the "general guide
of the Salafi Movement worldwide. He added that Bin Laden would claim
responsibility of a potential action "depending on the type of operation and the
publicity that would follow." Both commentators agreed that a revenge action
will take place and that European based Jihadists will carry it out. Al
Jazeera's anchor taking it to the apex called the Bin laden's speech a "Jihadi
road map."

What I saw in the al Qaeda message(s) and the al Jazeera debate was clear: The
Salafist movement worldwide was "talking" to the Europeans and the Euro-Jihadis.
It was threatening Governments to retreat from the confrontation on the one hand
and unleashing the pools of indoctrinated Jihadis across the continent to
"engage" in violence. The near future will tell us if the trigger will be
successful or not.

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Dr Walid Phares is a visiting scholar at the European Foundation for Democracy
and the Director of the Future Terrorism Project at the Foundation for the
Defense of Democracies. He is the author of the recently released book, The
Confrontation: Winning the War against Future Jihad