Hurricane PALOMA

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HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008
1000 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008
THE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT AT 2305Z INDICATED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...WITH AN EARLIER MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 118 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME...PALOMA
HAS MOVED INLAND AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH...AND LAND INTERACTION
WITH CUBA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA
ARE STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OF 50 DBZ AND HIGHER
VALUES COMPRISING THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION
AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS STILL EXIST OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY
DECREASED TO 100 KT...MAINTAINING PALOMA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS PALOMA MOVES
ACROSS CUBA. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION OF PALOMA IS
EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED BY A BUILDING LOW- MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PALOMA WEAKENS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF
COURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5.
ALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS
OF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT
AND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE
CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
PALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
AND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER
EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING
UNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT
TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 20.9N 77.7W 100 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 09/1200Z 21.4N 77.0W 65 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 10/0000Z 21.8N 76.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/1200Z 22.3N 75.9W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0000Z 22.6N 75.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 77.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER STEWART
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