Fla. Senate race watched around nation

TALLAHASSEE -- Florida's next U.S. senator will succeed an extremely popular figure in state politics, not to mention possibly deciding which party controls the Senate itself.

The Senate is almost evenly divided and neither party sees Florida leaning one way or another when voters replace retiring Sen. Bob Graham in November. It means the state could have another close election that decides the balance of power in Washington.

"It's right in there on the A-list," said Sen. George Allen of Virginia, chairman of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. "This is going to be a very, very close race and you have superimposed upon it the fact that this is going to be one of the battleground states in the presidential race as well. It's going to be one of those key, closely watched contested elections."

That's why Allen and others are paying particular attention to Florida among the eight states, including five in the South, that have open seats.

"The Graham seat is very important to the Senate because the way these vulnerable seats are going, it may come down to one seat," said James Thurber, a political science professor at American University in Washington. "It may come down to Florida as to who controls the Senate."

The Senate has 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats and one independent, Democratic-leaning Jim Jeffords of Vermont.

"It is hand-to-hand combat in all of these Senate races all over the country because it's so split," said Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe. "One vote will make the difference with a change in the White House. With one vote, it's 50-50. Then, of course, the vice president breaks the tie. If we can pick up two, it's outright control."

The fact that it's Graham who's leaving is also significant.

He's a political icon in Florida. He defeated an incumbent Republican, Paula Hawkins, to win office in 1986 after serving two terms as governor. He then twice won re-election by wide margins.

Few doubt he would have easily defended his seat had he decided to run for a fourth term.

Instead, Democrats are now in the same situation Republicans were in four years ago when Connie Mack retired. The two-term popular Republican would have been a lock to win re-election.

Republicans cleared the field and put their resources behind one candidate, then U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum. The strategy didn't work and Floridians elected Democrat Bill Nelson to replace Mack.

"When I made the decision not to run, it was a good year-and-a-half before my term ended. I really did not believe we would lose that seat," Mack said. "I was surprised and obviously disappointed."

This time, Republicans will have at least six other candidates on the Aug. 31 primary ballot with front-runner McCollum.

His most notable opponent is former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, who is widely perceived as President Bush's pick to run for the seat.

Rising in the polls, but still a distant third is Doug Gallagher, a self-financed millionaire who has never held elected office.

Coincidentally, Gallagher's brother, Florida Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, wanted to run for Senate in 2000, but was talked out of the race by Republican Party leaders despite polls showing he was a better matchup against Nelson.

On the Democratic side, former Education Commissioner Betty Castor leads a field that includes U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas.

A Mason-Dixon poll taken a month before the primary showed almost all head-to-head matchups between the leading Republican and Democratic candidates to be a toss up. Castor and Martinez were dead even, though she led McCollum by five points. Deutsch was in a statistical tie with Martinez and McCollum.

"Anybody that can tell you with any degree of certainty that they know what's going to happen in November is either a hell of a lot smarter than I am or crazy," said former state GOP Chairman Tom Slade. "It defies predictions at this point in time."