TI Compendium Predictions-The Deepest of Dives

I considered whatever precedents made the most sense for each prediction. So for some you’ll see old data, some you’ll see single game data etc.

All data was from dotabuff and datdota, but in some cases I had to count on my own. It is possible I made a mistake. Sorry!

I did not consider EG for a lot of these predictions because the new lineup has so few games.

The summit while informative, is not what I would consider representative of the whole dota meta because it’s almost entirely western teams.

7.19 has fucked all the hero predictions up =).

Without further ado, here are my predictions. Sorry it’s so long, but I got excited =)!

Hero predictions

Most picked

2017-Earthshaker

2016-Mirana

Top 3 at Supermajor: SK, Lesh, Disrupter

Top 3 in TI qualifiers: WR, Warlock, Sky,

Top 3 at Summit: Necro, Pudge, CM, WW

My pick: Winter Wyvern Alternatives: Phoenix, WR, Warlock
As you can see from the top picks at the Supermajor and TI qualifiers, I think this is likely to be a support. Winter Wyvern is currently the 4th most picked, but only 12th most banned hero at the summit. I also think Wyvern got nerfed the least of those 4 top picks at the Summit. But still I think it’s equally possible it will be a hero that comes out of nowhere.

Most Banned

2017-Night Stalker,

2016-Io

Top 3 Supermajor: IO, NS, Naga

Top 3 TI qualifiers: IO, Chen, Lycan

Top 3 The Summit: Enchantress, PL, Bloodseeker

My Pick: IO Alternatives: Phoenix, PL, Chen
I was going to be 100% on Enchantress or PL, but then they got nerfed. I think both are still viable, but I don’t think they’ll be top tier anymore. In the absence of an obvious nerf, I think that IO will rear its head again despite the nerfs. I also think that Phoenix got nerfed far less than most of the other top tier picks from the Summit and could maintain its position, but its numbers are probably inflated by Fly being one of the best Phoenix’s in the world.

Hero with Highest win rate (5 game minimum)

2017-Ogre (wtf?)

2016-Undying/Lone Druid

Supermajor-Chen 9-0, IO 9-1

TI qualifiers: Huskar, Chen, Mirana (I used 10 games minimum because there were so many qualifier games)

Summit: Undying 4-1, Arc Warden 4-1, Phoenix 9-3

My pick: Chen Alternatives: Brood, IO, Huskar.
This one is a crapshoot. You want a hero that is played enough, but not too much and I anticipate Chen being banned repeatedly and only played ~10 times. IO is also a great option for the same reason. Brood did get nerfed early game, but I think the hero is still a nasty one if he gets a good matchup.

Hero with the highest Kill average (5 game minimum)

My pick: Storm. Alternatives: PA, SF, Slark
I’m going with an assassin hero with high mobility. Storm was not impressive at the summit, but I’m thinking that’s just a small sample size. He’ll definitely get more than 5 plays, but obviously there are a number of decent choices. My original choice was Morphling, but that hero did poorly at the summit both in terms of kills and in terms of win rate.

Hero with highest assist average (5 game minimum)

My pick: Tusk Alternatives: BH, IO, Zeus
I think it’s pretty clear we need a position 4 or 5 hero (no surprise). Silencer had a rough Summit so I’m loath to pick him. I’m going to stick with Tusk. A decent number of plays and a good performance in qualifiers and decent work at the summit even if only played 3 games. Zeus is the classic obvious choice here, but I was not impressed by his stats so I’m going to eschew him.

Hero with Lowest Death average (5 game minimum)

My pick: Morphling. Alternatives: Brood, Dusa, Lycan (also 4th at Supermajor)
While Brood and Dusa make strong cases, I think that Morphling is historically so good at not dying and there are a number of amazing morph players going to be TI. Miracle, Ramzes, Resolution. Those guys are great at morph and I expect to see it picked a few times but not too many. I think Lycan, Brood and Dusa are also obvious picks, but again this category is a crapshoot.

Hero with Highest Last hit average (5 game minimum)

My pick: Dusa Alternatives: AM, Dusa, PL (probably picked too many times to win an average category, but he’s up there), Also my dark horse is Sven!
I don’t think AM is going to be picked 5 times. If you think he will be you should pick him 100% of the time. The downside to luna is that she tends to have shorter games than some of the other options (as does TA) because they push buildings faster. So I settled on Dusa because she has long games and farms consistently. Sven is another super fast farmer and is likely to only be played by experienced and really good Sven players Reso and Ramzes, but he also finishes games more quickly.

Hero with Highest XPM (5 game minimum)

2017-Brood

2016-AM

Supermajor: Dusa, SF, Timber (TA was 4th)

TI quals: Dusa, TA, Storm (over 10 picks due to # of qualifier games)

Summit: SF, Weaver, Lina

7.09-7.18 Meepo, AM, Timber, Brood, Dusa

My pick: Dusa Alternatives: Meepo, AM, Brood
To me this comes down to Meepo, AM and Dusa. If meepo or AM are picked 5 times you gotta go with them. Otherwise you gotta look at Brood vs Dusa. Brood just got a bit of a nerf so I’m going to lean towards Dusa.

My pick: Storm Alternatives: Ember, Mirana
Single game maximums are always incredibly hard to predict. However, I think Storm is in a good place right now and will be played regularly. I don’t think Gyro is going to get as much play it was ignored at the Summit 9. Storm has more chances to go off and get an absurd number of kills than any of the rest of them. Ember is similarly capable of going off and neither Storm nor Ember are pushing heroes which means longer games.

My pick: Dusa Alternatives: AM, Ember, TA
If AM gets played frequently you have to go with him. PL was nerfed so I think he drops a bit. TA is another pick and was played frequently at the summit (6 most) and was nerfed but not too hard and finally a super long ember game is entirely probably, but I’m sticking with a 80 minute Dusa game.

Team Predictions

Winner of TI

My Pick: Liquid Alternatives: VP, LGD
I think it’s a pretty clear choice between Liquid, LGD and VP for who you should pick here. If you pick someone else you’re either going to be a genius or an idiot. I’m leaning ever so slightly towards Liquid

My pick: VP Alternatives: VG, LGD, Winstrike
Winstrike is obviously another choice. They’ve only been to one Lan and still had 3 out of the top 25 kills in a game. But I am not a big believer in Winstrike. So I don’t see them winning that many games. VP on the other hand will get a lot of games and hopefully a lot of wins!

Team with highest kill average

2017: LGD.FY

2016: OG

Supermajor: LGD, Spirit, VP

7.09-7.18L Winstrike, VP, LGD

My pick: VP Alternatives: LGD, Winstrike
It’s really close between VP and LGD imo. Go either way. I don’t have a lot to say, but this an average category that doesn’t seem to be weighted towards teams that play few games because those teams have lost a lot of games and therefore don’t have many kills, but it is possible that a team like Winstrike could do it (See Team Spirit at Supermajor for a weaker CIS team that despite not a great record ended up in the top 3 in kills/game).

Team with fewest deaths in a game

Supermajor top 10 single game death scores: Secret 3, Mineski 2, VGJ Thunder, VP, Liquid, LGD, The Final Tribe.

My Pick: Secret Alternatives: VP, Liquid, Mineski
Honestly, I would have gone for Liquid or VP before looking at this data, but Secret have dominated this category this year. So fuck it. Stats don’t lie right? But they only provide probabilistic predictions so this is still like a 20% at best chance of being right. Again you want a team that plays a reasonable number of games and I think Secret should have a decent lower bracket run. Also remember at TI that the group stage is a big percent of the games played.

My pick: VG Alternatives: Winstrike, Secret
So this goes to my old data about assists/kill. It’s hard to imagine that VP or LGD who have incredibly low assists/kill rates will do it. But VG has higher assists/kill and plays longer games. Plus they are likely to win a fair bit and let’s be frank the data supports them. Winstrike are the wildcard, they’ve got 3 out of the top 25 games but only played one lan. They’re another really good option.

My pick: VG Alternatives: Newbee, Fnatic, Secret
I don’t think Newbee is playing well and I think they will lose most of the longer games they play. Fnatic could have a 2 hour long game at any point so they’re my second choice, but VG is just gonna have the most opportunities I think and is more likely to win them.

My pick: Liquid Alternatives: VP
I don’t see any reason not to pick Liquid. They play well early and are intimidating as fuck. Plus the data supports them. But really this is just going to be an out draft in the group stage. Someone is going to get huskared.

Team with highest game length Average

2017: Empire

2016: Secret

7.09-7.18 Longest game average: VG, IG, Fnatic

Supermajor longest gave average: EG, VG, Newbee

My pick: VG Alternatives: EG, Fnatic, Newbee
I think EG is a strange pick because the supermajor was their first tournament with Fly and S4 so I’m not going to gamble on them. I think IG is gonna get destroyed too frequently. Newbee and Fnatic are wildcards, but I’m sticking with VG.

Team with most different heroes picked

2017: Newbee

2016: Wings

Supermajor: VG 47, VP 44, Optic 43

ESL Birmingham: Fnatic 38, Optic 35, Pain 30

MDL Changsha: LGD 50, VGJ storm 42, VG 40

Epicenter: LIquid 51, LGD 47, VP 47, Secret 47, Newbee 47

DAC: Liquid 47, LGD 45, Optic 41

My pick: Optic Alternatives: VG, VP
Okay I know liquid had the most at two different tournaments, but they also had the second fewest at the Supermajor where you could argue they tried much harder to win than they had at for example DAC. Optic appears in the top 3 of all 3 majors they attended out of that list and they will play a fair number of games. I am a bit worried about them because they struggled at the summit and TI qualifiers. VP is always an option and VG appears a bunch too and has so many veterans who have huge hero pools.

Team with fewest different heroes picked

2017: DC

2016: EHOME

Supermajor: EG 29, Liquid 34, TNC 34

ESL Birmingham: (not counting it some teams only played 3 games)

MDL Changsha: IG 27, Secret 36, Mineski 36

Epicenter: Pain 28, Mineski 37, OG 37

DAC: Pain 24, VGJ Thunder 25, EG 26, OG 26

My pick: Pain Alternatives: IG, Mineski, OG
Okay so look at the supermajor EG was brand new and didn’t play that many games so I have to think they have expanded their pool. OG is an option because Topson does seem to have a small pool and I don’t think 7mad has that big a pool either. But Pain seems like the smart bet even though they’ve expanded over time. IG is also an option based on their MDL performance, but they weren’t in the top 4 at DAC despite attending. Also even though I bet IG play fewer games, remember they’ll still play 16 in the group stage minimum so that’s not the biggest consideration.

Players Predictions

Player with the highest Kill average

2017: Kuku

2016: Miracle

Supermajor: Somnus, Moon, Paparazzi

7.09-7.18 on lan: Iceberg (by a lot), Ramzes, Somnus

My pick: Somnus Alternatives: Ramzes, Iceberg
I don’t believe in Winstrike. Sorry. So I figured I’d go with Somnus he’s got a high average kills and he’s going to win a lot of games. Ramzes is a close second for that argument.

My pick: Somnus Alternatives: Paparazi, Armel, Iceberg, Moon
I think it’s so cool that Kuku won this category last year. I mean he’s now a position 5 player! Anyways, while I don’t have a good reason to pick nor not pick Moon. Somnus had the highest average kills at the Supermajor and showed up here and there in most kills game. But I can understand going for players with higher variance like Moon, Iceberg or Armel. Or you could go with a player who has longer games on average Paparazi

Player with the lowest death average

2017: Ame

2016:Qojqva

Supermajor: Raven, Ramzes, Reso

7.09-7.18: Raven, Noone, Ramzes

My pick: Raven Alternatives: Ramzes, Reso
I’ve been amazed at how infrequently Raven dies for a long time. He keeps doing it even when his team performs mediocrely. I’m still not sure that it’s a good strategic/tactical choice. Sometimes you gotta die to win a fight right?. But this is a clear follow the stats situation for me.

Player with the highest assist average

2017:Ah fu

2016:Zai

Supermajor: Lanm, Fenrir, Ninjaboogie, Jabz

7.09-7.18: AlwaysWannaFly, Nofear, Boboka (fy top from the top teams)

My pick: Lanm Alternatives: Nofear, AlwaysWannaFly, fy
Okay, if you can’t tell, I’m not drinking the Winstrike Kool-Aid. I’m not really sure why, given the stats support them. I just can’t get over how much they struggled in so many of the CIS qualifiers. So I’m going with a safe option for Lanm. I think Boboka is a really poor choice here since IG will get crush imo.

Player with most Assists in a game

My pick: NoFear Alternatives: Fenrir/Lanm,
Notice I didn’t include all the random players who appeared a single time on those lists of top assist games. That’s because the lists were pretty random. This one is gonna be a tough call, but I’m going for NoFear. Even though I think Winstrike is going to lose a lot of games, I think when Winstrike does it, they’re gonna do it their way. Lots of kills and lots of assists. You can quibble with me about NoFear vs AlwayswannaFly and I will not argue with you. Lanm and Fenrir are likely to have more wins than Winstrike so they’ll get more high kill opportunities.

Player with highest Last Hit Average

2017:Reso

2016:IceIceIce

Supermajor: Reso, SCCC, Moogy

7.09-7.18: Agressif, Iceberg, Reso, Ramzes

My pick: Resolution Alternatives: Ramzes
Okay look, I’m about to pick Resolution way way too many times, but are you really gonna take any of those other guys over him? You don’t want Miracle either because Liquid’s average games are too short.

My pick: Resolution Alternatives: SCCC, Ramzes
SCCC is an obvious choice because Newbee’s games tend to be longer and give him more time to farm, but I also don’t trust Newbee to win many games so they may not get many knockout games. Now of course the group stage is pretty long so they still . The rest of it is a crapshoot. I’m picking reso because I think he’s one of the most likely candidates to get an AM game.

My prediction: Sumail Alternatives: Paparazi, SCCC, Miracle, Ame
So obviously, 7mad is not a real choice anymore since he’ll be playing in the offlane and all of his appearances on this list were with alchemist midlane. We won’t see that. The real question is whether alchemist will be played. It was not played at the Summit, but I believe that with Fly as EG’s captain that they will last pick it at least once. But yeah… that might not happen in which case you should not have listened to me.

Player with highest GPM avg

2017:Ana

2016:IceIceIce

Supermajor: Ramzes, Iceberg, Miracle, Reso

MDL: Agressif, Reso, Ame

ESL Birmingham: Ramzes, hfn, 7mad

Epicenter: Miracle, Iceberg, Ramzes

DAC: Ramzes, hfn, Arteezy

7.09-7.18: Reso, Ramzes, Miracle

My pick: Resolution Alternatives: Ramzes, Miracle
I think it’s pretty clear the smart money is on one of these 3 players. The question is what team does best. Notice that winning doesn’t seem to have the biggest affect on your GPM. I’m looking at somehow Aggressif having top GPM at MDL? I’m leaning against Miracle because Liquid’s games are on average shorter than VP’s and VGJ Storm. So I pick Reso. Again.

My prediction: Ramzes Alternative: Miracle
Okay so here’s the thing about Liquid. At DAC they played a crazy number of different heroes and they did not play well. Also Kuro played carry at Dreamleague, so really i’m devaluing Miracle, Mind control and Miracle for their total hero picks this season. Meanwhile at the Supermajor, liquid did not play that many heroes and Miracle only played 9. So that makes me lean towards Ramzes.

Tournament Predictions

#of Games Played at the Main event

2017:47/60 = .78

2016:47/60 = .78

Supermajor: 56/68=.82

Epicenter: 30/40=.75

DAC: 40/48 = .83

My pick: 45-49 Alternative: 50-54
Okay so this is assuming TI8 has the same main event format as TI7. Basically I believe that the total games played with be around 80% of the maximum. So .8*60=48. However, you could argue that Dota has become more competitive and therefore 2-0s are less common, but it’s not quite enough to sway me to 50-54.

Total Number of heroes picked

2017:107

2016:105

Supermajor: 102

MDL: 94

Epicenter: 105

DAC: 96

My pick: 101+ Alternatives 91-100
I mean this one seems pretty straight forward. It’s been 100+ each of the last TIs. It was 100+ at the super major and there are more games at TI than at any of the majors.

Total number of heroes banned

2017:97

2016:82

Supermajor: 84

MDL: 81

Epicenter: 94

DAC: 82

My pick: 81-90 Alternatives: 91-100
I think this is a coin flip between 81-90 and 91-100. So either way you want to go makes sense. I lean towards trusting the Supermajor results and thinking that last year was a bit of an aberration. Epicenter does give me a bit of pause and I’m not sure what to make of that number.

Most combined total kills in a game

2017: 101-110

2016: 117

Supermajor:104, 92, 91

ESL Birmingham: 88, 83, 77

MDL: 101, 99, 89

Epicenter: 98, 95, 88

DAC: 90, 87, 83

My pick: 101-110 Alternatives: 111-120, 91-100.
I think teams are less likely to gg out at TI and therefore the games tend to last a bit longer so my feeling is to go a bit longer than the average from the majors. Plus as you can see in the next category long games showed up more at the Supermajor.

Longest game of the tournament

2017: 100+

2016: 76:57

Supermajor:88, 83, 63

ESL Birmingham: 59, 57, 54

MDL: 69, 67,64

Epicenter: 84, 64, 60

DAC: 71, 66, 62

My pick: 80-89:59 Alternatives: 70-79:59, 90-99:59, 100+
This is one of the predictions that I am least confident in, but there hasn’t been a 90+ minute game in any of the last 5 majors so I’m going one step below that.

Shortest game of the tournament

2017: 15-19:99

2016: 15:28

Supermajor: 18, 20, 22

ESL Birmingham: 19, 22, 24

MDL: 19:58, 20, 21

Epicenter: 21, 21, 21

DAC: 20, 21, 21

My pick:15-19:59 Alternatives: 20-24:59
I think 15-19:59 is the smartest choice, but the fact that so many of the majors barely had short games is a bit concerning. However, the group stage at TI is so long that I think some teams will gg out early in a game to prevent fatigue. Most of those other majors did not have as long a group stage.

Most kills by a hero in a game

2017: 23-25

2016: 23

Supermajor: 30, 28, 26

ESL Birmingham: 21, 19, 19

MDL: 24, 23, 22

Epicenter: 26, 26, 24

DAC: 21, 20, 20

My pick: 26+ Alternatives: 23-25
Anything less than 23 is I think foolish, but I’m torn between the other options. The fact that the Supermajor had 3 games with 26+ kills is what tipped the scales for me. Again I also think that TI has a habit of having a few really long games since teams don’t want to give up.

Most deaths by a hero in a game

2017: 20

2016: 17

Supermajor: 19, 18, 16

ESL Birmingham: 16, 15, 15

MDL: 20, 18, 15

Epicenter: 17, 16, 16

DAC: 17, 15, 15

My pick: 18-20 Alternatives: 15-17
The major results are pretty clearly one of these two options. I again break the tie with the supermajor results.

Most assists by a hero in a game

2017: 36+

2016: 36

Supermajor:45, 39, 38

ESL Birmingham: 32, 31, 31

MDL: 39, 36, 34

Epicenter: 41, 39, 37

DAC: 32, 31, 31

My prediction: 36+
This is the easiest of these predictions. I’m not even listing an alternative because I think it’s the one that everything is pointing towards a lot of assists.

Most GPM by a hero in a game

2017: 1000+

2016: 1090

Supermajor:919, 863, 857

ESL Birmingham: 876, 826, 810

MDL: 1060, 951, 920

Epicenter: 1096, 1026, 883 (top two were alchemist

DAC: 983, 869, 859

My pick: 1000+ Alternatives: 900-999
Do you believe in Alchemist? I think alch will get picked at least 2-3 times and win at least one of those games and will get over 1000. Hell even Luna got over 1000 at MDL. But I totally understand people not taking the Alchemist risk.

3 Comments

Jeff Dunham
on July 31, 2018 at 3:31 am

That’s my dawg Chillindude! Great stats, thanks if i don’t get 40 levels out of this consider yourself a racist.

Keep up the good work and stop showing up to work so early, take it easy man, you don’t need to flex on all of us so hard. Sit in your car for 20 minutes then walk in bro, jeez.