Green Room

Minnesota in Play?

John Hinderaker has a good rundown of the AFF poll showing Minnesota a one-point race between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the mid-40s range with just two days left in the race. He’s a little skeptical; I’m a lot skeptical, for a couple of reasons. First, there is the history of Minnesota, which speaks for itself: we’re the only state to never have voted for Ronald Reagan despite two landslide wins. AFF is a conservative group, which doesn’t make their poll wrong, but does make it less than independent. Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.

However, John notes that Bill Clinton’s sudden investment in time and energy in our state speaks to Democratic nervousness about the state’s direction, so it’s not going to be a runaway, either. While that may not be enough to say that Minnesota will finally turn red, it’s a pretty good indicator that Wisconsin will be even closer than Democrats like, as our neighbor has been more Republican in national elections than we have been over the last three or four cycles. Keep an eye on Minnesota on Tuesday, but keep a closer eye on Wisconsin.

Update: A commenter reminds me that Wisconsin actually broke harder for Obama in 2008 than Minnesot did, but otherwise I was correct about the last few presidential cycles.

Blowback

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Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.

Won’t it goose turnout among religious voters in the hinterlands, too? Seems to me that it’s a wash.

I no longer know what to believe. Rasmussen has the popular vote now tied, after Romney was up by 2 or 3, but other polls are showing MN, MI, WI, and PA all tied … all Democrat states for decades.

Jaibones on November 4, 2012 at 1:36 PM

It’s called the writing on the wall.

I said it in 2008, Obama has alienated a good portion of his base. This was evident in 2010 and it’s gotten worse for Obama since. I don’t think the electorate will ever go back to what it was. Take Illinois. If it wasn’t for Chicago, that state would be solid red. And I believe it will eventually turn solid red in the future.

And if you’re wondering about Rasmussen, they changed their D/R/I split back to +4D. Why? Have you ever seen The Price is Right? Ever see those people that give a price $1 more than everyone else? That’s Rasmussen right now. Wants to be more right than everyone else, but doesn’t want to be too far off the pack. Pollsters’ claim to fame is who was “more right”. Not who was actually right. Problem is the pack is still going with 2008 party split. They ALWAYS ignore midterm party split. Rasmussen has decided to go with something in between. Not gonna happen. Party split will be R+1 or better.

Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.

That cuts both ways, Ed. While many in the TC area (such as U of M types) are for redefining marriage I don’t believe it’s as popular outside of certain enclaves and most Minnesotans will vote to preserve marriage. In fact, I think the turnout for saving marriage will help to boost Romney’s numbers. I don’t know he will win Minnesota, but I expect the marriage amendment will win.

But Romney could manage it – MN has done stranger things: think the Rassler Guv. Gonna be an interesting night all around.

I think the massive clusterfunking that’s been the Democratic modus operandi is A) energizing voters to support the GOP and at the same time B) pulling numbers of traditionally Democratic voters away from Obama. Especially Union voters, Police & Firefighters.

Wisconsin’s Recall will be felt in Minnesota, too.

The GOP is going to take Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, N. Carolina, Florida, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. I’m thinking Pennsylvania might eek out for Romney, but Michigan and Minnesota will stay blue, but it’ll be a lot closer than people think.

At best they’re showing Obama’s ceiling… If his GOTV is indeed awesome and he can somehow through getting out all of his base, including the dead, he can get a D+4 electorate, he can pull about even in the popular vote. Not a likely option though with all party ID trackers showing R+1 to R+3.

I’m inclined to agree with Mr. X here that Ras is hedging and trying to be just that little bit closer than the others. Also there’s the idea that there was a brief Sandy bounce and two good O days are about to fall off the tracker as Christie slobbering over him has fallen out of the news cycle in favor of “revenge” and freezing starving 90 year old NYers.

Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.

Yeah, I don’t understand this reasoning. The Number of people who strongly oppose redefining marriage easily outweigh those supporting it. While I don’t expect Washington, Maine or Delaware to go for Romney I am positive Obama’s margin of victory in those states will be smaller due to those turning out to vote against redefining marriage. That issue alone virtually won Bush 43 reelection in 2004. It may just give Romney Wisconsin.

One measure would amend the state constitution to require photo identification for voting, and the other would constitutionally define marriage as between a man and a woman. Outside groups on both sides have poured in money. These referendums, more than Republican Kurt Bills’s underfunded challenge to Senator Amy Klobuchar, have Republicans enthused.

With regards to Romney being up 1 in Michigan, remember that Michigan also took part in the 2010 tsunami. Gov. Snyder easily won and republicans won good majorities in the state house and senate for the first time in a very long time. I don’t know how much of that will carry over to a presidential election, but MI being a blue state didn’t help democrats at all in 2010.

Like many of the battlegrounds, I see MN as coming along for the ride if Mitt has a good day. I doubt he would MN if he didn’t also win WI, OH an IA, for example. But this race has the makings of a humungous landslide with MN, PA and MI all voting Mitt and pushing him over 330 EV’s. Heck, he could even win OR!

Finally, the marriage amendment on the ballot Tuesday has provided energy to the liberals in the core Twin Cities counties, which will probably drive up what had been flagging enthusiasm, and those votes are going to Obama as well as to opposing the marriage amendment.

If you were not headed to the polls to vote democrat for Obama or Klobachar but YOU ARE for the amrriahe amendment I would have to wonder how many people that is Ed. Not many I don’t agree that the marriage amendment helps liberals but it does make Christians squeamish about Obama that they have to vote to keep marriage.

Bottom line the Voter ID and Marriage help the Conservative candidates voter turnout. Otherwise in Minneapolis/St. Paul there isn’t even reason to vote (See Keith Ellison)

Evan as a political person I have to drag my self to hopeless causes and for others the Marriage Amendment is at least something I have a say in. Along with voter ID

Can this election get any weirder? There’s something weird going on in IL today. The Chicago Dems claimed that they were about to break the 2008 record for early/absentee voting in Chicago&Cook County this weekend and the IL Republicans are claiming that they’re skewing the numbers and voting is actually way down. So what is it?

The other thing to take into account are people who just do not have any faith in politicians, of either party, and so usually don’t vote. They do come out to vote on referendums though as they counts directly. These type of people skew heavily to the right.

It’s very quiet around here – a complete reversal from 08, when the place was electric.

The VOTE NO signs are everywhere, but it’s almost like a “I have to put one up to fit in” thing.

Did not hear any political talk at the high-buck, mega liberal coffee shop this morning…

It’s like the who area has a flat affect – which is very weird.

Here’s hoping the gloomy weather holds on, and rain on Election Day would make it better…

Bruno Strozek on November 4, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I live in the ‘burbs, where conservatives are much more common (Northern suburbs of Minneapolis). I’ve seen a handful of “Vote No” signs (for the marriage amendment), but a good number of signs supporting local conservative candidates. A couple of the radical liberals in my neighborhood have their usual candidate’s signs out, but a lot of Minnesotans just don’t care to put out all that many signs. I think it’s the non-emotional Scandinavian influence. Over all, I don’t see much energy on the lefty side of things here.

I’m confident the Voter ID law will pass. I give the marriage amendment about a 50-55% passage chance (get everyone out in support of it that you can!). Keep in mind that there is a rather large homosexual community downtown by the lakes. I’d expect tons of “Vote No” signs there.

I’m also hoping that we’ll hold at least the senate or the house. If we don’t, I expect Governor Dayton to tax the crap out of the “rich” (by which I mean the middle class).

I no longer know what to believe. Rasmussen has the popular vote now tied, after Romney was up by 2 or 3, but other polls are showing MN, MI, WI, and PA all tied … all Democrat states for decades.

Jaibones on November 4, 2012 at 1:36 PM

It must be noted that with a MOE of 3.5%, the national results of Romney +3 and a tie are statistically exactly the same. Both are within half the MOE range.

The secret effect on all the polls has been the marked tendency of conservatives and Tea Party supporters to refuse to comply. They are hardly alone, response rates having fallen from over 70% in the 1980s to 37% in 1997 and down to an average of only 9% this year (according to Pew). But if “our” people make up an outsized proportion of the refuseniks, as seems likely, any sample drawn from the remaining pool of potential subjects will necessarily be more Democratic than the actual electorate will be.