You make a major elementary mistake regarding causality in your Israel interpretation. You made no attempt to figure out if the people who say Israel is an important issue would have been for Turner anyway (e.g., they're already Republicans and conservatives); no attempt to find out if the issue has pulled people away from Weprin who would otherwise be for him. Polling 101: coincidence isn't causality.

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York's 9th Congressional District. He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided. Turner...