Selasa, 05 Juli 2011

Event
§ We upgrade BPTN's target price by 4% to Rp3,650 following the 1Q11 results and our recent company visit. Maintain Outperform.
Impact
§ NIM expected to remain above 11%. 1Q11 NIM was 12.9%, stable compared to the 4Q10 level as there has been no price change in 1Q11. We expect NIM to decline to 12% in FY11 and to 11.6% in FY12 due to a shift in the micro loan composition – from unsecured loan with higher yield to secured loan with lower yield. Nonetheless, BPTN's NIM should remain one of the highest in the sector due to increasing micro loan contribution (from the current 20% of total loan to 26% by 2012), which offers an average yield of 30%+.
§ NPL peak had passed. 1Q11 NPL came down to 1.0% from 1.1% in 4Q10. This is better than our and the initial management expectation of 1.6% this year due to the peaking of micro loans NPL. Management believes that the micro loan NPL may have peaked in December at 5.3% given the proportion of higher risk unsecured micro loans has declined and the average micro loan tenure is 18–24 months (micro business started in 2009). Hence, we believe that NPL has stabilised and expect NPL to reach 1.3% this year.
§ New initiatives do not necessarily imply cost surprise. Cost to income shot up to 72% during the bank's major initiative to expand into micro loans in 2009. Since then, cost to income has declined to 53% as of 1Q11. BTPN is currently undertaking a few pilot projects in an effort to explore new business lines. If such expansion materializes, cost to income may rise, but we believe not as drastically as before, given the higher base. Hence, we lower our cost to income assumptions to a more stable 57–58% level for 2011 to 2013.

Earnings and target price revision
§ FY11E EPS and FY12E EPS increased by 17% and 18%, respectively, on the back of better-than-expected 1Q11 results, due mainly to higher than expected NIM. As a result, we raise our TP by 4% to Rp3,650.
Price catalyst
§ 12-month price target: Rp3,650 based on a Gordon growth model methodology.
§ Catalyst: Strong 2Q11 results, lower NPL, lower cost to income ratio.

Action and recommendation
§ We maintain our Outperform recommendation due to the bank's strong performance, high CAR and low NPL. The stock is trading at 3.1x P/BV and 11.2x PER in 2011E, and offering 25% ROE.