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EURGBP- Having broken and held firmly below its key support at the 0.8218 level,EURGBP faces further downside risks. This development now leaves the cross targeting its Aug’2010 low at 0.8141. Further down, support comes in at its 2010 low at 0.8066 level.A cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards its psycho level at 0.8000. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, in order for the cross to halt its present downside and resume its uptrend, it will have to break and hold above the 0.8423 level and the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. This will open the door for a move further higher towards its Dec 08’2011 high at 0.8560 with a breach exposing the 0.8616 level. All in all, the cross continues to look susceptible to the downside.

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GBPUSD: With the pair resuming its bullish offensive after a brief pause on Monday, the next barrier lies at its Oct 31’2011 high at 1.6161. This is coming on the back of a break and hold above its key resistance at 1.6059 level. A decisive break and hold above the 1.6161 level will pave the way for a move higher towards the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema followed by the 1.6451 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, below the 1.6059 level will have to occur to reverse its present upside offensive. However, the bigger support resides at its trendline and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows where a breach if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend.

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USDCHF: Our outlook on USDCHF remains to the downside with eyes on the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low. As long as the 0.9331 level remains as resistance, the pair’s weakness started from the 0.9591 level remains intact. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0.9331 level to resume its recovery. This will open the door for a run at the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside below its key resistance.

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EURUSD: EUR is now struggling to maintain its recovery as bears have taken control following its failure at 1.3263 level. As long as the pair trades and holds below the 1.3387 level, our bias remains lower. In such a case, the 1.3003/1.2975 levels will be targeted. This if taken out could see the pair weakening further towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. On the other hand, to annul its downside pressure, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside short term.

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USDCAD: With the pair breaking below its key support located at the 0.9840 level the past week, the risk into the new week will be for USDCAD to weaken further. In such a case, its Sept 16’2011 low at 0.9779 level will be aimed at with a violation of there turning attention to the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. Below here will call for a run at the 0.9601 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to climb back above the 1.0048/51 levels to annul its present bearishness. This will bring further gains towards the 1.0146 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0250 level and then the.0317 level followed by the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further declines.

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EURUSD: A second week of upside may have set the tone for further recovery but EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to annul its broader downside pressure. While the 1.3387 level remains as resistance, outlook for the pair remains lower with eyes on 1.2993 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to set the stage for further correction. This will leave the pair targeting the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside though attempting a recovery.

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EURJPY- With the cross failing to follow through higher and closing lower the past week, a follow through lower is now seen. This will leave EURJPY weakening further towards the 105.63 level followed by the 104.60 level, its April 2012 low. Further down, support lies at the 103.27 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, EURJPY will have to break and hold above the 107.99 level to reverse its present weakness and bring further recovery towards its key resistance at the 111.42/52 levels. This will resume its broader medium term uptrend. If this occurs, further bullish offensive is expected towards the 112.34 level with a violation of there extending more gains towards the 113.00 and then the 114.14 level, its July 31’2011 high. All in all, EURJPY continues to hold on to its downside vulnerability.

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US Dollar Index: With continued downside pressure seen, the Index remains vulnerable and looks to return to its key support located at 78.09 level. As long as it continues to hold below the 80.73 level, the above view remains valid with a violation of the 78.09 level turning attention to its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 77.97 level and then the 76.71 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, a break and hold above the 80.73 level will trigger further bullish offensive towards the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high. A breather may occur here but if that level breaks, further upside offensive should build up towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher towards the 84.55 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though vulnerable.

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GBPJPY – The cross’s upside attempt is now failing and with its broader downside bias remaining intact, further decline is likely. This will turn attention to the 128.76 level with a cut through here calling for a run at the 127.08 level/the 126.53 level thereby annulling its present strength. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for a return above 131.77 level, leaving the cross targeting its big resistance residing at the 133.46 level. A clearance of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 135.09 level. Further upside offensive above here will call for a run at 136.97 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend.

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AUDUSD: A return to the 1.0246/24 level could be building up as continued weakness is seen. As long as the pair continues to trade below its key resistance at the 1.0456 level, this view remains valid. A violation of the mentioned zone will call for more weakness towards its psycho level at 1.0200 and then the 1.0150 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, a return above 1.0450/65 levels is required to end its present downside threats. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0465 level with a break and close above here paving the way for a run at the 1.0556 level and then the 1.0635 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside short term.

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EURUSD: As EUR remains vulnerable after ending its recent corrective recovery at the 1.3282 level, further decline is likely. This development leaves the pair aiming at the 1.2993 level. Below here will open the door for a run at the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low. As long as the 1.3387 level remains as resistance this view remains intact. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3387 level to end its broader weakness and turn attention to the 1.3484 level. A cut through here will push the pair further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Further out, price extension if seen will aim at its weekly 200 ema at 1.3642. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term

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EURUSD: With the pair’s weakness spilling into May, there is likelihood of further declines as the month progresses. In such a case, the 1.2993 level will come in as the immediate support where a breach will pave the way for a run at 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. A cut through here will set the stage for more declines towards its 200 monthly ema at 1.2536 level where a break will turn attention to its key support at the 1.2192 level. Its monthly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance lies at the 1.3378 level where a violation if seen will call for a move higher towards 1.3484 level. Further out, the 1.3872 level will come in as the next upside target. Overall, EUR remains susceptible to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

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GBPJPY – Having weakened for a second week in a row, GBPJPY looks to extend further declines in the new week. This will leave the cross targeting its key support located at 127.08 level with a break aiming at the 126.53 level. Further down, support lies at the 125.45 level followed by the 124.50 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, the cross will have to break and hold above the 131.77 level to halt its present weakness and bring gains towards the 133.46 level. Further out, the 135.09 level comes in as the next resistance where a break will turn focus to the 136.97 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside as it looks to weaken further.

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EURUSD: Bulls may have come in at the 1.2954 level and pushed EUR higher in today’s trading session but the pair continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside. This suggests its present attempt on the upside is corrective and should eventually fade thereby turning the risk lower again. This if seen will open the door for a run at the 1.2954/93 levels where a violation will trigger further declines towards the 1.2879 level, its Jan 23’2011 low and then the 1.2587 level. On the other hand, on continued upside recovery, the pair will aim at the 1.3177 level where a violation will turn focus to the 1.3282 level and then the 1.3387 level. The latter will have to give way to allow the pair to extend further towards the 1.3484 level with a cut through here pushing it further higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term despite attempts at recovery.