Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 28, 2013):

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Against the NFL Draft last week, Hannibal ratings crashed to just a 1.0 for adults 18-49. The Cancellation Bear considered moving Hannibal to "likely canceled" today, but decided to take a look at one more episode's worth of ratings before going thumbs up or down.

And one more episode is all he's going to get, final guesses for Hannibal, and the rest of the NBC shows are coming on Tuesday, May 7. Buckle up!

A note to those in denial, there has been no formal announcement that Smash has been canceled, but when a show is sent to Saturday during its run, it has been canceled. There will be no formal announcement.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ie. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I think NBC will not renew Hannibal. Next season they already have 2 similar themed shows (Dracula and Crossbones) ordered, so really no need for Hannibal.

Parks and Community will be renewed, and then MAYBE Whitney and Go On, for midseason. I can see Community and Go On sharing the same timeslot (one in the fall and one in the winter/spring).

Mary

I love that picture. It’s like the bear is thinking “Oh, Hannibal. I’m going to have to eat you now.” LOL.

D Diva

I have this strange feeling that Hannibal will be renewed no matter what, unless it falls below a 1.0 this week.

Wright

Renew Hannibal!!! There are only 3 good shows on this network: Revolution, Grimm and Hannibal.

Neil

The bear is thinking ‘Oh God not another NBC show, I’m so full’

Ultima

@D DivaI have this strange feeling that Hannibal will be renewed no matter what, unless it falls below a 1.0 this week.

“They’ve done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time!”

senor chang

all I need is for NBC to renew this show. that’s it. why does everything I watch die a slow, Nielsen-induced death?

Anyanka

Everything besides Parks and Community (for a short season) will be cancelled. Go On is the only bubble show left.

MichaelChickless

Other than the ones already renewed, renew GWK, Community, Whitney, Hannibal, and Parks.

TonyR5

@Jeff (Canada) I don’t think Dracula and Crossbones are similarly themed to Hannibal at all. Well, I guess if you mean stylish, dramatic genre shows, but I would think programs about vampires and pirates would be a little more campy than the heavily dramatic Hannibal, which takes the subject matter pretty seriously.

rainbowtwizzler

Wow, sooner than I thought. Bye, Deception. Don’t write back.

Dan

NBC renewed their dramas last week, this week they need to renew some comedies

My final guess is that NBC will renew Parks & Recreation, Go On, Community & Whitney.

Every other comedy will be cancelled and if they have to cancel one of the ones I mentioned it would be Whitney or Community but I believe those are safe.

Hannibal is 50/50. NBC could decide to bring it back for midseason as a bridge between Revolution runs, or they could cap it. It could definitely go either way and this weeks ratings will decide its fate.

Jan

I keep reading, in various places, that SMASH has NOT been officially cancelled. Believe me, I have looked everywhere. When NBC renewed the five dramas last week, they said they’d have more announcements. (Obviously.)

Why have you had SMASH in the cancelled category for so long and why is it still there? I know the ratings are lousy and I don’t want to start a discussion about why people hate it, but I’m curious why you have it as cancelled.

Mary

@Jan,

It’s because NBC pushed the show to Saturdays–a day that doesn’t have any other broadcast shows (except maybe Fox) Since the network esssentialy dumped the show into a wasteland, we don’t see why it would be renewed.

@JanI keep reading, in various places, that SMASH has NOT been officially cancelled.

Correct.

However, Smash has been de facto canceled. If NBC was considering renewing the show for an additional season, they would not have moved it to Saturdays.

Most cancellations are not announced or acknowledged by the networks before the next season’s schedule is announced (and even then it’s cancellation by exclusion). Subsequently, de facto cancellations are enough to label a show “canceled.”

Well most of my favorite shows get cancelled pretty quickly, so I probably should not get attached. I hope that they give this one a little longer, I think it could be a solid show for NBC.

TVDude

I agree that this week’s episode will determine Hannibal’s fate. If it were to rise to a 1.3, for example, I think it’ll bounce up to renewal territory (although we could argue why it still shouldn’t, but it’s Thursday at 10pm on NBC, so beggers can’t be choosers). If it’s even or falls, it’s done. Although a 1.0 isn’t the worst rating a show has received in that hour, Hannibal’s a bit more expensive. I know Awake did worse, but it ultimately got canceled. NBC has relatively low expectations for this hour, but economics will no doubt play into their decision if it doesn’t rise.

The good news is that one could argue that it has a better lead in tonight, so if it doesn’t rise, that takes away that excuse.