2013-14 Win Total Best Bets

2013-14 Win Total Best Bets

2013-14 Win Total Best BetsVegasInsider.com

The 2013-14 NBA season begins this week and we asked 20 of our pro basketball handicappers to provide their Best win total opinions on the upcoming season based on the odds that opened at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino (LVH) SuperBook. Each expert chose one Over and Under to watch.

To no surprise, the two-time defending champions Miami Heat have a win total of 60 games, which is the highest in the league. The lowest win total posted is connected with the Philadelphia 76ers at 16½ games. It might seem hard to lose 66 games in the NBA but the 76ers roster is depleted and Doug Collins is no longer coach.

The other 28 teams in the league have numbers in between and a few clubs have caught the eye of our experts and two of them aren’t expected to make the playoffs either.

Even though Milwaukee has a win total of 28½ and plays inside a very tough division, a handful of our experts believe the Bucks will exceed expectations and go Over their win total with at least a 29-53 record this season.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins explained why he liked the Milwaukee Over. He said, “In the Eastern Conference, beyond the top five teams in the conference it is going to be a case of who's tanking and who is not. One team which is definitely not tanking, even if is in their best interest, is Milwaukee. Despite the lack of presence of "star" talent, look for them to play team basketball, including solid defense, and compete again for a final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with a roster deep with proven NBA players.”

Most would agree with Akins that the Eastern Conference is top-heavy with Miami, Chicago, Indiana, Brooklyn and New York fighting for the top spots. At the same time, a lot of pundits believe the Western Conference has a lot of quality teams and some might surprise you.

One of those clubs is Portland, who finished 33-39 last season and they closed the season with 13 straight losses. This season, they have a win total of 38 ½ and three of our experts like the Over in this sport. “The Blazers are chock full of talent, from up from with LaMarcus Aldridge to the backcourt with Damian Lillard. Swingman Nic Batum can fill it up, and is ultra-versatile as well. Depth might be an issue, so if injuries rear their ugly head, the Blazers could easily go under. But this team has enough talent to be a .500 club or better, and push for a postseason spot. Rookie C.J. McCollum is another pure scorer who will be back at some point after a preseason injury, and his eventual return will make this team even more fun to watch,” said VI handicapper Joe Williams.

The Trail Blazers also have a favorable schedule, which is why Jimmy Boyd leaned Portland Over as well. He explained, “The win total for the Trailblazers has been set for too low for a team with many favorable advantages on the schedule. They have several games this season in which they will be coming off one or more days of rest, and playing a team that was in action the previous night. They also have four games against opponents that will be playing their fourth game in five days. “

Another team catching attention out West is Golden State. The Warriors have a great shot to go Over 49½ wins according to Kyle Hunter. He explained, “Mark Jackson is getting a ton out of this team, and with a lot of youth on the team we can only expect them to get better. The Warriors have knock down shooters all over the floor. Stephen Curry gets most of the attention, but watch out for a big year from Harrison Barnes this year. Andre Iguodala will instantly be the team’s best perimeter defender. This team has quietly become one of the top ten defenses in the NBA. Golden State’s division is much weaker this year, and the Warriors should surpass this win total.

Hunter also likes Denver Nuggets Under 46 wins, which is a popular choice. He added, “I don’t like what’s going on in Denver right now. George Karl helped this team overachieve last year to the point that they finished with the best record in franchise history. His reward was a pink slip from the front office. Brian Shaw walks into a tough situation here. Andre Iguodala was a very important part of this team last year, and they’ll miss him in a big way. Danilo Gallinari’s health is a major concern. The Nuggets are going the wrong direction.”

Re: 2013-14 Win Total Best Bets

With the NBA season tipping off Tuesday, the win total for the Oklahoma City Thunder has seen the biggest upward move at the LVH SuperBook, as oddsmakers have adjusted to news that Russell Westbrook may not miss as much time as originally anticipated.

When the LVH opened NBA win totals on Oct. 1, the Thunder were posted at 50.5 wins, an expected sharp decline from the 60 wins they tallied last season. Reports at the time said Westbrook would miss four to six weeks of the regular season. Westbrook is recovering from a torn meniscus in his right knee he suffered in OKC’s first-round playoff series against the Rockets last season.

“The morning (of Oct. 1) we were ready to open with 56.5, and then we got the news about Westbrook supposedly missing four to six weeks of the season, so we adjusted our opener down to 50.5 based on that,” SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “We’ve taken a little bit of OVER money on it, but he’s started to practice recently, so we moved them backed up to closer to where we going to originally have them.

“So most of that movement was based on Westbrook yes/no, that type of information. ... We don’t think he’s going to miss quite as much time as anticipated.”

When OKC’s win total was adjusted to 56, it drew some UNDER money, which prompted a move down to the current number of 55.5, Sherman said.

Public plays

As one may expect, a handful of public-adored teams have seen their win totals move up as well.

The adjustment on Chicago, from 56.5 to 57.5, however, also had plenty to do with the way they’ve played in the preseason. Derrick Rose is back on the floor – and playing well – after missing all of last season with a knee injury.

“The Bulls (move) was a combination of public money and the fact they looked pretty good in the preseason,” said Sherman. “They went undefeated in the preseason; Derrick Rose got some minutes and looked really good. We had some UNDER money too, but slightly more on the OVER.”

The Lakers’ opening win total of 33.5 caught the public’s attention, as they just can’t seem to fathom how far the team has fallen.

“The Lakers has been all public money on OVER,” according to Sherman. “People had a hard time believing we opened them at such a low number.”

The Warriors, Sherman added, have become a very public team.

“People like to support them in their individual games with the type of style that they play,” he said. “They got a lot of support in the playoffs last year. It’s been the public betting the OVER on their season wins.”

There’s also been plenty of public dollars on the Pacers and Nets OVERs, Sherman noted.

Betting the two-time champs

The LVH has booked good two-way action on the Heat’s season win total.

Miami opened at 60, were bet as high as 61.5, but UNDER money followed, and the number sits at 60.5 with the season about to tip off.

The Rockets, ‘one of the most heavily-supported teams’

With Dwight Howard added to the James Harden/Jeremy Lin mix, Houston figures to draw plenty of interest from the public, Shermam believes.

The SuperBook opened the Rockets at 54.5 wins and took OVER money that prompted a move to 55.5. Houston's total has since been adjusted to 55, but Sherman says the public will be on them night to night.

“The Rockets we opened somewhat high, because our feeling was they look like they’re going to be a really good regular-season team,” Sherman said. “The question mark might be in the playoffs – will Howard sustain getting to the free-throw line all the time, and just their defensive play – but I think the Rockets are going to be one of the most heavily-supported regular-season teams this season because they’re going to be involved in just about the highest OVER/UNDERs.

“Their inside-outside game is going to be fun to watch. So it’s not going to take too much time for the public to warm up to this team. So we opened up where I thought was relatively high, and we’ve basically seen two-way action, and I just kind of crept it up a little bit.”

Who are the sharps on?

Sharps, as their wont to do, have made some win-total plays that might confound the average NBA fan.

They’re betting OVER on the Bobcats, for years the league’s doormat. Charlotte won just 21 games last season, but drafted Cody Zeller, acquired Al Jefferson and hired Steve Clifford as coach, moves sharps evidently see as positives, as they’re playing OVER 27 wins.

There’s also been some sharp money on the Blazers and Raptors.

They’re going the other way on the Knicks, Nuggets and Suns, with Sherman saying sharps are “pretty heavy on the Nuggets UNDER.” And while the Knicks opened at 49, “we’ve seen mostly UNDER money.”

The Suns win total has plummeted recently from 21.5 to as low as 19.

“With them trading (Marcin) Gortat for a player who basically won’t be playing this season (Emeka Okafor, who is sidelined indefinitely with a herniated disc in his neck), all indications are they’re trying to catch up the 76ers for that worst record spot.”

Here are NBA season win totals posted at the LVH as the regular season begins. Opening numbers are in parentheses, if changed.

Re: 2013-14 Win Total Best Bets

Are you looking for a few future investments in the NBA? Then look no further as ASA has you covered. Below are the wagers we're making before the season tips off Tuesday.

Over 36.5 Wins Toronto Raptors - The Raptors finished with 34 wins last season so asking them to get to 37 with an improved roster shouldn't be a problem. Last year with underachieving Andrea Bargnani in the lineup the Raptors weren't nearly as good as they were without him when he was injured. In fact, Toronto started the season 4-19 with him on the floor but then won 8 of 10 without him. Then just past the midway point of the season the Raptors acquired Rudy Gay in a blockbuster trade from the Memphis Grizzlies. In Toronto he averaged 19.5 ppg and 6.1 rpg leading the Raptors to an 18-14 record (missed 4 with injuries all losses). Along with Gay the Raptors have a great young nucleus of talent led by 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas a 21-year old Lithuanian who has a huge upside and should be the cornerstone of this franchise for years to come. Other key players for Toronto this year are Amir Johnson (10ppg, 7.5 rpg), Demar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry along with 3-point snipper Steve Novak (came over via New York in the trade for Bargnani). Clearly Boston and Philadelphia are going to be down this season in the Atlantic Division which helps our cause here as the Raptors face them 4 times each. The East as a whole is not as good as the West and we expect the Raptors to be .500 or better this season.

Under 40 Wins New Orleans Pelicans - First off, we like the young Pelicans roster as they are an up-and-coming franchise but unfortunately for them they won't win 40 plus games this season. Not when they reside in the Southwest Division in the West with Dallas, Houston, Memphis and San Antonio. That's 16 games against four other potential Playoff teams who had a combined record of 200-128 last season. Not to mention Dallas will be better with a healthy Dirk Nowitzki to start the season and an improved Houston team that added Dwight Howard. New Orleans has a great young nucleus with Eric Gordon, Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis but they will have growing pains this season. Gordon hasn't played a full season yet due to injuries, Holiday didn't shoot well last season hitting just .43% from the field and all three are guards so sharing the basketball could become a problem. Last season this team won just 27 games and now the oddsmakers are asking them to win 14 more games to go 'over' 40. Take the value play here with 'under' 40 wins for the Pelicans.

Play on: Indiana Pacers 15-1 NBA Championship: This team was built to beat the Heat and it's not a stretch for them to get past Miami this year and represent the East in the Finals. Remember this Indiana team took the Heat to 7 games in the Eastern Conference Finals and that was with a 1-point OT loss in Game 1 in Miami. In our opinion Indiana could be better this season as they return their core lineup from last season and have added point guard depth with C.J. Watson and another physical forward who can score in Luis Scola. Now factor in the Pacers get back a previous All-Star shooting forward in Danny Granger (career 18.1 ppg scorer) who missed all but 5 games last season. This team was the best defensive team in the NBA last year ranking 2nd in points per game allowed at just 90.9, 1st in defensive efficiency rating allowing just .969 points per possession and were the best overall rebounding team in basketball. With a lineup that features David West, Paul George, Roy Hibbert and George Hill and you have a team that can easily win it all in 2013-14.

Play on: Golden State Warriors 25-1 NBA Championship: The Warriors are another long shot worth a wager before the season tips off to win the NBA Title in 2013-14. Golden State had a remarkable season last year and took the eventual Western Champs San Antonio to six games before bowing out of the playoffs. Golden State gets it done with their offense that features sharp-shooting Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry had a breakout year averaging 22.9 ppg while shooting a ridiculous .44% from beyond the arc. Not only did he 'get his' but he also tacked on nearly 7 assists per game last season. Klay Thompson (16.6 ppg) is a nice compliment to Curry as he also shoots the 3-ball extremely well (40%) which puts an extreme amount of pressure on teams perimeter defensive. When you shoot it like the Warriors do that opens up the inside for guys like David Lee and Andrew Bogut. The 7-foot Bogut missed the majority of games last season but with him in the lineup the Warriors were 20-14. David Lee continues to be an under-rated player which doesn't make sense considering he averaged 18.5 ppg and 11.2 rpg in 2012-13. The big 'X' factor for Golden State this season could be the addition of Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is the perfect fit for the Warriors because of floor spacing like we talked about earlier. With the defense stretched A.I. will have plenty of room for attacking the basket which is the best part of his game. Depth is a concern but this team could represent the West in the Finals and anytime you have a team that can flat out shoot they always have a chance to win.

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