Vince Cable: his comments have turned the BSkyB deal into a saga, and put the price up in the process. Photograph: Andrew Winning/REUTERS

Vince Cable's removal from the media gig at the Department for Business was worth £250m on BSkyB's market value. That may sound a lot but it is only 2%. The market appears to be saying that Cable, even if he had kept his mouth shut, was unlikely to prevent News Corporation from bidding.

Analysts at Investec, being more precise about probabilities, reckon the chances of a takeover have increased from two-thirds to 90% – partly because of Cable's exit and partly because the other event on Tuesday was the thumbs-up for a bid from the European commission.

What is more, Investec argues that any adverse opinion from Ofcom or the Competition Commission will face an appeal or be litigated "into the ground". That, too, is a reasonable assumption. News Corp's lawyers stand ready to play what the company regards as its trump cards – the fact that the rules on plurality only concern the provision of news and that the BBC is, and would remain, the biggest beast in that field.

So, in the City, the debate moves on to the price at which Rupert Murdoch bags the outstanding 61% of BSkyB. On this front, the plot has moved faster than News Corp might wish. BSkyB's shares stand at 743p, meaning that June's original proposal of 700p has been dismissed as a Murdoch joke. Any shareholder who thought 700p was fair has had months to sell in the market.

Current non-News Corp investors will be a mixed bunch but there are at least two distinct camps. There are long-term enthusiasts, such as hedge fund manager Crispin Odey, who has declared he would like to share in BSkyB's prosperity over the next half-decade. Then there are the Johnny-come-lately hedge funds which swarm over big bids in search of a quick buck.

The definition of a quick buck might be 15%. So any arbitrage fund buying at 743p has to believe there is a reasonable chance of seeing 850p. Indeed, given that the buck might not arrive soon (a Competition Commission inquiry could still push the finale into 2012), expectations might be as high as 900p.

Is that realistic? News Corp has declared it will be "disciplined" on price but that is what bidders always say. True, the group's existing 39% stake is an intimidating weapon but, once the regulatory hurdles are cleared, Murdoch will have to enter a hard negotiation with BSkyB's independent directors, who are charged with acting in the interests of all shareholders.

It is worth recalling what the independents said in June – "based on facts and circumstances today" they would have been prepared to support a proposal that delivered "value in excess of 800p a share". But the facts have changed since mid-June: the FTSE 100 index has risen 10% and BSkyB's trading results have continued to sparkle. So, by rights, the independents should also be thinking of 850p-plus.

The facts could change again, of course. News Corp could also choose to ignore the independents and go hostile – although, under the terms of the June standstill accord, it would have to wait a couple of months, or five months to avoid a 70% takeover threshold. But the preferred option is clearly an agreed deal – it's less hassle.

The independents, pondering the strength of their negotiating hand, ought to reflect that the Cable affair has increased the hassle factor even further. Murdoch's pursuit of full control of BSkyB is now a full-blown political saga with Labour questioning the fitness of culture secretary Jeremy Hunt to rule on the bid. One has to think that, if Murdoch gets a clean sight of the finishing line, he will want to get the deed done quickly. Cable's legacy, then, might be this: he didn't stop Murdoch, but cost him a few quid.