I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

hubiestubert:I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

Not a bad result for the little prick, if it works out exactly as he hopes. It won't though. Being rebuilt by the west is one thing, but that country is a barren wasteland, and not because of the Kim Jong family. They can't grow anything. They can't produce anything but weapons. Sadly, they are very good at that. We can't go in and rebuild and turn them into a thriving economy based on agriculture or business. They have shiat for natural resources.

hubiestubert:I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

Unlikely to happen. More likely is a Chinese annexation of NK. And they'll only do that if absolutely necessary.

hubiestubert:I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

I don't believe that Kim would make it through such an affair with both his head and his freedom intact. The world hasn't been kind to disposed dictators of late.

GleeUnit:hubiestubert: I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

I don't believe that Kim would make it through such an affair with both his head and his freedom intact. The world hasn't been kind to disposed dictators of late.

hubiestubert:I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

Assuming of course that he lives through the intense bombing & assorted coup attempts surely to follow....

But yes I too was wondering if this was just a (deranged) plan to get the entire country rebuilt/brought up to code/decent infrastructure/etc on the cheap. Sure you'll kill a bunch of your people, but you can't feed them anyway. Also a bunch of military hardware will get chewed up, but it too is for the most part completely outdated & should have been sold as surplus decades ago.

I can see Little Kim a couple of weeks from now sitting deep in a bunker as BIG bombs are falling all around him, with a genuinely puzzled look on his face as he whines "But they've always backed down before..."

To be fair, those RREs are way way way out of reach right now. NK mines only operate at about 30% capacity out of safety concerns. They're obscenely outdated and in need of serious repair. To get at those RREs in any real capacity would take a massive overhaul of existing infrastructure and modernization of their mining equipment.

A serious serious investment that would only pay off in a decade or so, if that.

To sum up: they probably can't shoot us at all. Even if everything goes perfectly and won't shoot it down and the missile lands on target AND the bomb goes off...it will probably be less than 1/2 the yield of the Hiroshima bomb. For which we would immediately turn their whole country into a self-illuminating glass parking lot. Or invade, burn their palace down around their ears, and hang every man we found. Either way, it would be the total destruction of both their regime and their state, in return for...not all that much.

A more scary scenario involves a launch at Seoul or Tokyo, but even that would get instant condemnation and destruction. Hell...China would HELP us dismantle them at that point.

The only scenario where this possibly leads to war in one in which they somehow get Chinese backing, then use those nukes to blast a couple of big-ass holes through the DMZ and roll south with everything they have. They would do a LOT of damage. Seoul would be wrecked, central South Korea would be a mess, and it would take some pretty sharp action to stop them. But it would happen. It would be the Korean War all over again, with the same result: unless China or Russia intervenes on behalf of North Korea, they cease to exist.

North Korea is all kinds of crazy, but suicidal they aren't. Even if they actually believe their own propaganda vis-a-vis the US, they're quite realistic when it comes to China. They know they have an icicle's chance in Hell of taking them, and they have even less chance than that of surviving very long without their backing.

In summary: short of suicide, there will be no war, at least not started by North Korea. This current brinksmanship is happening for internal political reasons in North Korea, and will blow over eventually.

1. A tank gets 0.6 miles per gallon2. North Korea produces 0.0 billion barrels of oil per day3. China exports 8,432 bbl/day to North Korea4. Seoul alone has a population of 10,000,000+ people5. North Korea has approximately 5,000 tanks, more than half of which are absurdly outdated6. Even without South Korean resistance, they would need all of those tanks AND about 1,000,000 supporting men, trucks, etc to take and hold Seoul7. Which they would need lots and lots and LOTS of fuel for8. Which they won't get without Chinese support

Also:

1. North Korean nuclear weapons are smaller than the Hiroshima bomb2. North Korea's sole nuclear plant only puts out enough material to make about one bomb per year3. Their missiles can only just barely reach the US, if at all4. North Korea has only conducted 7 missile tests, 2 of which were long range and one of which failed

To sum up: they probably can't shoot us at all. Even if everything goes perfectly and won't shoot it down and the missile lands on target AND the bomb goes off...it will probably be less than 1/2 the yield of the Hiroshima bomb. For which we would immediately turn their whole country into a self-illuminating glass parking lot. Or invade, burn their palace down around their ears, and hang every man we found. Either way, it would be the total destruction of both their regime and their state, in return for...not all that much.

A more scary scenario involves a launch at Seoul or Tokyo, but even that would get instant condemnation and destruction. Hell...China would HELP us dismantle them at that point.

The only scenario where this possibly leads to war in one in which they somehow get Chinese backing, then use those nukes to blast a couple of big-ass holes through the DMZ and roll south with everything they have. They would do a LOT of damage. Seoul would be wrecked, central South Korea would be a mess, and it would take some pretty sharp action to stop th ...

Whatever's going on in NK, it's managed to put China on the same side as Japan.

No matter what else goes down, 'that' deserves to be noticed and remarked upon.

ThatGuyGreg:whistleridge: 3. Their missiles can only just barely reach the US, if at all

Everybody posts that map, with no legend as to what the dark red vs. the light red means.

Fine.

Here:

And here:

And here:

The point is: Vancouver, Seattle, San Francisco, and LA are all in the 'maybe...if everything goes right' range.

Also, Alaska and Hawaii are very much part of the US.

Not in terms of economic production they don't. Yeah, hitting the Alaskan oil fields or ports would put quite a dent in our oil for awhile, but it only kill a few thousand to tens of thousands, and wouldn't really do much besides that. Ditto for hitting Pearl Harbor.

If you want to risk having your country wiped out, you want to guarandamntee you can take out a major population center like LA or Chicago, not piddle around with a secondary target. That's the whole point of MAD. They don't have it.

Although frankly, if they REALLY want to hurt the US...aim at Silicon Valley. You take out Apple, Google, Yahoo, Cisco, Oracle, and all the other brains living and working there, and you've set us back 25 - 30 years. That actually scares me more than them hitting LA.

So...IF we can get THAAD-equipped ships in place, and IF they get proper intelligence of a coming test shot, and IF they can fire in the 1 - 2 minute window needed to successfully intercept, then yes...we can probably shoot their missile down. If THAAD doesn't come into play, we've got a greatly diminished chance of shooting it down.

Don't get me wrong: it's a hell of a lot more than we had in the Cold War, and a hell of a lot better than the 'nothing' everyone else has, but it's still far from a sure thing.

hubiestubert:I am more and more convinced that North Korea is really hoping for war, so that they can get rebuilt by the West. It takes them out of the Chinese pocket, it keeps the Russians out of their hair, and afterwards, Little Kim can be one of the cool kids at the UN table. At least one of the ones who got out of the dictator for life game, and retires someplace warm, with a lot of security paid for on someone else's dime...

Oh, Kim won't be permitted to see the rebuild. He's going to either die in the middle of it or become the new world hide-and-seek champ.

Given that they have actively THREATENED nuclear war, Japan has absolutely every right to shoot down any missile coming from there. I rather doubt Japan would do anything else, but they certainly have made it clear that they absolutely do intend to do so. Patriot missile batteries deployed in Tokyo. They have to protect their own population, any nation would do the same.

netweavr:Japan is forbidden from doing shiat without getting permission from the US. Guess what the US gave them today...

I was of the belief that anti-missile stuff was within the purview of the Japanese Defense Force. If not, the damned well should be. At any rate, I hope they keep their shiat together and don't do anything hasty. Just shoot the damned thing down and show Kim what's what.

Also, if there are any Korean speakers out there, what does "dong" mean in Korean? Can we get word to the NK missile program that the US just can't take missiles named "somethingsomethingDONG" seriously?

nekom:Given that they have actively THREATENED nuclear war, Japan has absolutely every right to shoot down any missile coming from there. I rather doubt Japan would do anything else, but they certainly have made it clear that they absolutely do intend to do so. Patriot missile batteries deployed in Tokyo. They have to protect their own population, any nation would do the same.

Besides, the one thing you don't threaten in front of Japan is nuclear anything. They get rather cross about the prospect of getting nuked. Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Fukushima, and remember, Godzilla was originally an allegory about being reckless with nuclear power brought on after a random fishing boat of theirs got caught in nuclear-test fallout.

If they do shoot a missile over Japan, the trajectory probably won't allow current systems to shoot it down, it will be near apogee when it passes over won't it? Unless it malfunctions and part of hit hits Japan, oops, then all hell will break loose.

fireclown:netweavr: Japan is forbidden from doing shiat without getting permission from the US. Guess what the US gave them today...

I was of the belief that anti-missile stuff was within the purview of the Japanese Defense Force. If not, the damned well should be. At any rate, I hope they keep their shiat together and don't do anything hasty. Just shoot the damned thing down and show Kim what's what.

Also, if there are any Korean speakers out there, what does "dong" mean in Korean? Can we get word to the NK missile program that the US just can't take missiles named "somethingsomethingDONG" seriously?

whistleridge:Ground-based interceptors (GBI) have about a 50% success rate in tests, and that's under conditions where we know when the shot is coming, where it's being aimed, how fast it will be going, and what the profile of the target it. Expect that rate to drop by at least 50% in real-world conditions. We cheat, and say we'll fire 4 or 5 for a cumulative kill rate of 97%, but that's a projection - it's never been tested.

That's only an issue if they are firing dozens of long range missiles, the chances that they have more than 1 or 2 long range missiles is unlikely at best. We have more than enough interceptors to send 4 or 5 or more at the 1 or 2 they might send.

KarmicDisaster:If they do shoot a missile over Japan, the trajectory probably won't allow current systems to shoot it down, it will be near apogee when it passes over won't it? Unless it malfunctions and part of hit hits Japan, oops, then all hell will break loose.

Japan ain't going to give a good goddamn about apogee. If it enters Japanese airspace, they're going to flip their shiat.