NFL teams have become too good at avoiding turnovers

There is so much on the line in the NFL that it is understandable that most coaches would be conservative in their play-calling. Unfortunately, that conservatism has created a game that can be less exciting, and that can be seen in the steady decline in one of the most exciting plays in the sport – the turnover.

So far this season, the NFL is averaging just 2.8 turnovers per game, up slightly from last season (2.7), but down 22% over the last ten seasons, and down more than 40% from the mid-1980s.

As teams have gotten better at minimizing mistakes, offensive production has improved, albeit modestly, in the form of yards per play and yards per pass attempt. Unfortunately, this more efficient NFL is coming at the expense of exciting plays as more efficient offenses are also more predictable, and in turn, less exciting.