28 posts from October 2010

October 30, 2010

Red Flag WARNINGConditions are ripe for fires to spread rapidly. Red Flag WARNINGS are issued when critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidty & mild temperatures will create explosive fire growth potential. The Red Flag WARNING for Louisville will be in effect until 7:00 PM.Tomas Intensifies...12th Hurricane of the season, 19th named storm, bearing down in St. Lucia & St. Vincent. This season has pushed into the top five most active hurricane season's in history.

...STATS ON TOMAS...LOCATION...13.3N 60.7WABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF ST. LUCIAABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. VINCENTMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HRPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HRMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES"Like" My Facebook...You can keep up with active weather alerts as soon as they are issued by "liking" my facebook page or following me on twitter. It's an easy way to know where the current weather alerts are taking place. Just another way I'm "Working For You"! :) Had to get that one in for our marketing department at WAVE.

Happy Halloween...Be careful if you're headed out tonight. Some kiddos trick or treat tonight, most tomorrow. I'm sure many adults will be headed out as well. I'll be downtown judging a costume contest with Kelly K, Ben Davis & Julie Smith at Fourth Street LIVE! Stay safe & have fun this weekend.

October 29, 2010

Trick or Treat Times...Oldham County October 31stLouisville October 31stJeffersonville, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)Clarksville, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)Sellersburg, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)New Albany/Floyd Co. October 31st (5:00pm-8:00pm)Charlestown, IN October 30th (6:00-8:00)

Weekend Weather...Under a mostly sunny sky temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 60s over the weekend. A weak cold front will move through on Sunday... cooling temperatures a couple of degrees lower than Saturday's highs. By the time trick or treating begins temperatures should be in the mid to upper 50s.

WeatherExtra...If you have a chance and want to take a guess at how much snow will fall this year... have some fun and post your guess to the WeatherExtra Facebook Page. It's that time of the year. We'll likely have our own guess contest in the coming weeks! Stay tuned!

Best Buddies Kentucky ‘Hole In One’ ContestWin $75,000 or a trip to Hawaii for two!!!All money goes to Best Buddies of KY, a nonprofit 501(c)(3) organization dedicated to establishing a global volunteer movement that creates opportunities for one-to-one friendships, integrated employment and leadership development for people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD).

- Location: Different Strokes Golf Course, English Station in Middletown, KY- When: Friday (11:30am-5:30pm), Saturday (10am-6pm), Sunday (10am to 3pm)- $10 for 12 balls, $20 for 25 balls, $50 for 75 balls- Ten closest shots each day (30 total) will get one shot at the grand prize on Sunday at 3:15 pm (Hole 5)- Call 502-387-1291 with questions

More Cold Tonight...Temperatures tonight will dip into the 30s again... some areas south and east of Louisville will fall even lower, into the 20s. A Freeze WARNING is in place (counties shaded in blue).

Updated Halloween Times...Oldham County October 31stLouisville October 31stJeffersonville, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)Clarksville, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)Sellersburg, IN October 31st (6:00pm-9:00pm)New Albany/Floyd Co. October 31st (5:00pm-8:00pm)Charlestown, IN October 30th (6:00-8:00)

CLICK ON ANY PICTURE TO ENLARGE Freeze WARNING...Clouds have moved out and temperatures are tumbling. We'll see overnight lows dip into the 30s in the city with many outlying areas falling into the 20s by early Friday morning. The Freeze WARNING is in effect until 9:00AM Friday.

Average Freeze Dates...The coldest we've been so far this season is 40 degrees on October 22nd. We should drop below that mark overnight into Friday. Frost will be likely as the winds calm. The average date of the first freeze for Louisville is around October 20th.

Snow On The Ground...I crack up everytime I say Snow On The Ground :) That's the case across North & South Dakota. The visible satellite show where it's located. Earlier this week they had a blizzard and are still left with two to six inches of snow on the ground. The darker "vein" moving through the state is the unfrozen Missouri River.

7 Day...The coldest temperatures of the next seven days will occur over the next two mornings. The weekend looks good and the forecast for Saturday and Sunday is in more detail below. You will notice that there is only a small chance for rain in the 7 day... that's a 20% chance next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Halloween Weekend...The Halloween Weekend looks good. Daytime highs will be pleasant... and actually above normal. Look for temperature during the evening hours to be in the 50s. There may be some patchy front early Saturday, but otherwise it's going to be a great weekend... no matter what your plans may be.

14 Day Trend...You will notice that the first week of November has some ups and downs in the temperature trend. Long range models still bring a surge of very cold air into the Ohio Valley as a trough sets up by the 10th, 11th or 12th of the month. It will be interesting to see if the pattern changes with this cold push of air. Facebook...You should take the time to "like" my facebook page. Good conversations take place about the weather... and you can share your weather pictures. Severe weather warnings are always on there. Just click this link... and click "like" at the top.

October 28, 2010

Freeze WARNING...Cold air transported in on northwesterly flow will bring the coldest air we've seen this season to many places. Lows in the city will likely fall into the mid 30s while many in the suburbs see lows dip into the mid and upper 20s... burr!

Freeze Stats For Louisville...Earliest Freeze: October 3, 1975Lastest Freeze: December 5th, 1885Average Freeze: Around October 20th

October 27, 2010

...Click on any image to view full size...Confirmed Tornado...An EF-0 tornado struck Bogard Lane about four miles SW of Mt. Washington at 11:51am Tuesday. The path was 150 yards long and 75 yards wide. A well-constructed concrete workshop was heavily damaged with a 3500 pound roof blown 45 yards away. A 125 pound chimney was blown 60 yards away. Insulation was found in nearby trees

Cooling Down...Temperatures behind this second cold front will be a bit cooler. Highs are expected in the low 60 Thursday (some areas where clouds may be thicker may hold in the upper 50s). Cool temperatures will linger into Friday too, before warmer weather rolls back in for the weekend. Just in time for the Trick or Treaters.

Frost...With overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 30s early Friday morning we'll likely see some frost around the area. Many places have seen some patchy frost already this season, but more is likely as we end the week... possibly again early Saturday morning too.Snow... Looking at the long range computer models there is still an outside chance for a few flurries during the first week of November. It's the GFS and we all know how that models likes to tease snow lovers :)

Fun Forecast...Here's a look at the winter forecast (in a nutshell) from the staff in the WAVE 3 Storm Center. You will notice that I've gone with the latest date of the first snow... Christie has the coldest temperature and the most snow. Brian has the earliest snow and even mentioned one ice storm. Andy says early December for the first snow and near normal snowfall of the winter. This is just for fun!

Welcome Snow...Many out West are welcoming the early season heavy snowfall. Telluride Mountain tops are white with a covering of snow. Ski lovers are enjoying an early start to the ski season out West.

I took this pick off of I64 westbound from Lexington close to the Versailles exit today around 1pm. The dust and dirt exploded up from the ground with some spinning. It was just like watching in slow motion. -Anthony Parker

This is a picture i took of the storm durring the tornado warning in lebanon, I am located between highway 68 and simms town this was about 1:10 this afternoon.-Terry

Winds in Mt Washington blew my daughters swings over.-Troy Lyons

Tree on a sidewalk in the Highlands- Matt McCutcheon | WAVE 3 News

Low Pressure...Low pressure deepened to reach 956 mb... the lowest non-tropical low ever measured in the United States. This storm system brought 75 MPH winds to the Louisville area, funnel clouds & much needed rain. We really escaped the brunt of the storm... even with some minor wind damage being reported. This storm had great potential to do significant damage. The center of the low was stronger than a category three hurricane, stronger than the Blizzard of 1978, the March 1993 Superstorm (aka "The Storm of the Century"), the "Witch of November" storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald in 1975, and even the Columbus Day Storm across the Pacific Northwest in October 1962. A Different Kind Of RecordSTORM SUMMARY NUMBER 5 FOR MIDWEST HIGH WIND EVENT NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...RECORD BREAKING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AN EXTENSIVE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES.BLIZZARD WARNINGS...WINTER STORM WARNINGS....AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL AS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MONTANA.

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A 958 MB...28.3 INCH...SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...JUST SOUTH OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN. A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGIONS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO EVEN 40 MPH. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS OBSERVED IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THESURFACE LOW ...STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SNOW...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SOUTHEAST...ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO CANADA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE WEAKENING STORM...THE BROAD AREA OF SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CAUSE THE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESSOF 55 MPH...ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. NEW RECORDS FOR THE LOWEST PRESSURE RECORDED HAVE BEEN SET IN MULTIPLE CITIES ACROSS THE MIDWEST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN NORTH DAKOTA AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN U.S. ARE ALSO GOING TO BE MAJOR CONCERNS AS THIS RECORD BREAKING STORM INCHES TOWARDS CANADA.

Thank You...To those that have been reading the blog, posting reports here and to facebook... I wanted to say thanks. I try to repsond, but sometimes it takes a while... though I see the email alerts when something is posted.

Forecast...It looks like another cold front will take aim on the region late Wednesday... this may bring a few clouds late in the day, but more noticable will be the cooler temperatures by Thursday in the upper 50s. We'll see nighttime lows fall back into the 30s as we close out the week.

Trick or Treat...It appears that by the end of the weekend temperatures will be back on the upswing and back into the lower 70s for the 31s. While that may sound like a treat... what follows by the 4th or 5th of November may not be... highs then in the 50s.

October 26, 2010

Windy, Storms Approach...Winds will get stronger as a powerful cold front approaches the area this morning. Gusts up to 40 MPH possible with no storms present at all... then as the line of storms move in we'll see the most powerful storms produce 60 to 70 MPH winds. Be ready for power outages in places! Some minor wind damage has been reported in the area already. With metal or shingles being blown from a couple of structures. I will stress... that the threat for tornadoes reamins very real today... this is going to be a day where you need to make sure you have a plan in the event of severe storms.

Forecast Radar...Here's a view of the HRRR Composite Reflectivity... a high resolution computer model that brings showers & storms to Louisville late morning & a band of strong to severe storms into the area around noon, or just after. We're watching closely and will pass along any watches & warnings that are expected.

New WATCH soon to be issued for the Louisville area...FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...ARCING BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND VICINITY...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MN/IA/MO ATTM. A MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY -- FUELING THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE VERY STRONG FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE IS AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BAND -- AND THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING -- AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY AS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR CONVECTION INCREASES. WITH THE MOST EWD PORTION OF THE ARCING BAND OF STORMS -- NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- SHIFTING EWD AT 40 KT...STORMS WILL NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF TORNADO WATCHES 720 AND 721 AROUND 13Z.

For perspective here is the table for the percentages issued in a day 1 forecast...You can see by looking at the forecast (15% for tornadoes) is midway through the chart... while the forecast for damaging winds (60%) is the highest issued.

Tornadoes

2%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%

Large Hail

5%, 15%, 30%, 45%, 60%

Damaging Wind

5%, 15%, 30%, 45%,60%

FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...--- AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED EARLY TODAY --- ...MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES...TN VALLEY... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN WI INTO CNTRL IL AND SERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE...FAVORING EITHER A SQUALL LINE OR QLCS STORM MODE. AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EWD...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS...WILL SURGE NWD AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA FROM MULTIPLE SOURCES INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS PRECEDING THE FRONT FROM WRN KY...SRN AND CNTRL INDIANA INTO WRN OH. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 M2/S2 AND BUNKERS MOTIONS OVER 60 KTS SUGGEST A FEW LONG LIVED AND POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MOST INTENSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS NWD...ALTHOUGH NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD WITH A WIND THREAT AS FAR N AS NY.

October 25, 2010

Tornado WATCH - to our west (for now)...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SURGES EWD FROM KS INTO MO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OVER WRN IA AND A 100+ KT JET STREAK ALOFT. INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE SQUALL LINE FORMATION WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR INCREASINGLYWIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN & DESTABILIZE. OTHER MORE SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE FROM NE MO NEWD TOWARD SW WI. EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES GIVEN THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.