Tell anyone other than a Chiefs fan that the home team from Kansas City would have a real shot in the Week 3 matchup with the 49ers and you woulda been laughed out of the room.

“So much potential up there in San Fran,” they’d say. Well, here we are staring the Chiefs potential right in the face. But It will be interesting to see how the 49ers react to the close loss to the defending Super Bowl champs.

Our projection model is not perfect. There are many improvements that could be made but we had relatively good accuracy with it this season despite the flaws. Translation: Use these at your own discretion but they should be pretty darn good.

While the oddsmakers are saying 49ers by one, the projections give the Chiefs a 21-17 advantage. Whoya gonna believe, bookies who get paid to do this stuff or the Chinstrap Ninjas? Wait, don’t answer that question. The projections are below.

Matchups

Any time the 49ers play against a team susceptible to big plays from opposing tight ends, you have to be very afraid that Vernon Davis is going to have one of those ridiculous 3-TD games. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth most points to tight ends so far this season. Expect that ranking to jump after this week.

This isn’t a great matchup for the Chiefs, but they’ll get a couple field goals and their defense will outturnover the 49ers. Tony Moeaki, who leads the Chiefs in catches, could also be in for a decent game.

After Thomas Jones’ 83-yard performance on Sunday, we’re left with a mess at running back for Kansas City. We’re giving the edge to Charles this week, but flip a coin until we know more.