In 2002, 133,707 deaths (68,900 males and 64,800 females) were registered in Australia, 5,200 more than were registered in 2001 (128,500). Since 1982 the number of deaths has increased by an average of 0.8% per year. The steady increase in the number of deaths over time reflects the increasing size of the population and, in particular, the increasing number of older people. With continued ageing of the population the number of deaths will continue to rise, with deaths projected to outnumber births sometime in the 2030s.

Despite the ageing of the population over the last 20 years, death rates have continued to decline. The crude death rate (CDR) fell from 7.6 deaths per 1,000 population in 1982 to 6.8 deaths per 1,000 in 2002. The fall in CDR, against the background of an older population, indicates the considerable decline in age-specific death rates over the period. The standardised death rate (standardised to Australia's 2001 population to remove the effect of the changing age structure of the population) was 6.7 deaths per 1,000 population in 2002, slightly higher than in 2001 (6.6 deaths) but 35% lower than in 1982 (10.3 deaths).

Life expectancy

Life expectancy refers to the average number of additional years a person of a given age and sex might expect to live if the age-specific death rates of the given period continued throughout his or her remaining lifetime.

Over the past century the average life expectancy of a new-born boy has increased from 55 years in 1901-1910 to 77 years in 2000-2002. Likewise, the average life expectancy of a new-born girl has increased from 59 to 83 years during the same period (graph 5.27). These represent an increase of 22 years for boys and 24 years for girls. The increase in life expectancy at birth is due to declining death rates at all ages.

The reduction in mortality in the early part of the 20th century has been attributed to improvements in living conditions, such as better water supply, sewerage systems, food quality and health education. The continuing reduction in mortality in the latter half of last century has been attributed to improving social conditions, and to advances in medical technology such as mass immunisation and antibiotics. The past two decades in particular have seen further increases in life expectancy. These increases are due in part to lower infant mortality, fewer deaths among young adults from motor vehicle accidents and fewer deaths among older men from heart disease. The reduction in the number of deaths from heart disease has been related to behavioural changes, such as dietary improvements and reduced smoking.

During the 20th century the life expectancy of new-born girls was consistently higher than that of new-born boys. Up until the early-1930s, a new-born girl had a life expectancy approximately four years greater than that of a new-born boy, with this difference peaking at about seven years in the 1970s and early-1980s, largely due to significant declines in heart disease, stroke and respiratory disease mortality among women, combined with a slight decline in male life expectancy from accidents among males aged 15-24 years and from heart disease among 45-84 year old males. In recent years, the gap in life expectancy between new-born males and females has narrowed to about five years (5.2 years in 2000-2002). This can be attributed to the large reductions in death rates of males aged 45 years and over, and particularly to the reduction in heart disease deaths among males.

The increase in life expectancy for older persons has implications for retirement planning and income policies. Life expectancy of 65 year olds has increased from 14 years for males and 18 years for females in 1982, to 17 years for males and 21 years for females in 2000-2002. Australians have a life expectancy at birth which compares well with that experienced in other developed nations. Among the countries shown in table 5.28, the life expectancy at birth of Australian males and females (77 and 83 years respectively) was exceeded only by that in Japan (both males and females), Hong Kong (SAR of China) (females) and France (females). The life expectancy of new-born babies in Australia was higher than in New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States of America.

A life table is a statistical model that is constructed from the death rates of a population at different ages. It is frequently used to express death in terms of the probability of dying. In its simplest form, a life table is generated from age-specific death rates and the resulting values are used to measure mortality, survivorship and life expectancy. Table 5.29 shows the expectations of life at specific ages for Australian males and females. The figures have been obtained from ABS life tables based on demographic characteristics of the Australian population for the period 2000-2002.

5.29 EXPECTATION OF LIFE(a)

Males

Females

At exact age (years)

years

years

0

77.4

82.6

10

68.0

73.1

20

58.2

63.2

30

48.8

53.4

40

39.4

43.7

50

30.1

34.2

60

21.4

25.2

70

13.7

16.7

80

7.8

9.6

90

4.1

4.8

100

2.5

2.9

(a) Expectation of life has been calculated using data for the 3 years 2000 to 2002.

Source: Deaths, Australia (3302.0).

Table 5.30 brings together summary measures of mortality for selected years from 1910 to 2002.

5.30 SELECTED SUMMARY MEASURES OF MORTALITY

Life expectancy at birth(a)

Registered deaths

Crude death

infant mortality

Males

Females

no.

rate(b)

rate(c)

years

years

1901

46,330

12.2

103.6

55.2

58.8

1921

54,076

9.9

65.7

59.2

63.3

1933

59,117

8.9

39.5

63.5

67.1

1947

73,468

9.7

28.5

66.1

70.6

1954

81,805

9.1

22.5

67.1

72.8

1961

88,961

8.5

19.5

67.9

74.2

1966

103,929

9.0

18.7

67.6

74.2

1971

110,650

8.5

17.3

67.8

74.5

1976

112,662

8.0

13.8

69.6

76.6

1981

109,003

7.3

10.0

71.2

78.3

1986

114,981

7.2

8.8

72.7

79.2

1991

119,146

6.9

7.1

74.3

80.4

1992

123,660

7.1

7.0

74.5

80.4

1993

121,599

6.9

6.1

75.0

80.9

1994

126,692

7.1

5.9

75.0

80.9

1995

125,133

6.9

5.7

75.0

80.8

1996

128,719

7.0

5.8

75.2

81.1

1997

129,350

7.0

5.3

75.7

81.4

1998

127,202

6.8

5.0

75.9

81.5

1999

128,102

6.8

5.7

76.2

81.8

2000

128,291

6.7

5.2

76.6

82.0

2001

128,544

6.6

5.3

77.0

82.4

2002

133,707

6.8

5.0

77.4

82.6

(a) Data for 1901 are based on the period 1901 to 1910. Data for 1921 to 1991 are based on three-year averages, with the year shown being the midpoint of the three-year period. Data for 1992 to 1994 are based on individual years. Data for 1995 onwards are based on three-year averages, with the year shown being the last year of the three-year period.(b) Per 1,000 population.(c) Per 1,000 live births.