USC quarterback Matt Barkley looks to throw against Arizona State Saturday at the Coliseum. Barkley and the Trojans have their eyes set on UCLA for Saturday. KEVIN SULLIVAN, THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

MATT BARKLEY, BY THE NUMBERS

ATTEMPTS, COMPLETIONS PER GAME

Att.

Cmp.

Pct.

2009

27.1

16.2

59.9

2010

29.0

18.2

62.6

2011

37.2

25.7

69.1

2012

34.9

22.6

64.8

YARDS PASSING

Per game

Per att.

2009

210.4

7.8

2010

214.7

7.4

2011

294.0

7.9

2012

297.2

8.5

TDS, INTERCEPTIONS PER GAME

TDs

Int.

TD-Int. ratio

2009

1.2

1.1

1.1-1

2010

2.0

0.9

2.2-1

2011

3.3

0.6

5.5-1

2012

3.3

1.3

2.5-1

QB RATING, SACKS

Rating

Sacked

2009

131.3

18

2010

141.2

18

2011

161.2

8

2012

160.2

14

LOS ANGELES – Is there one more plot twist remaining? If USC's Matt Barkley, like so many heroes of fictional lore, is to complete the trajectory of rise, fall and rise again, his opportunity begins Saturday.

Barkley has reached a full-circle moment. Last November against UCLA, Barkley threw for 423 yards and six touchdowns, a game that started a wave. Barkley returned for his senior season, and instantly pundits tabbed him as the de facto 2012 Heisman Trophy winner and the Trojans as the No. 1 team in the country.

Well, reality rarely mirrors expectations.

On the road to glory, Barkley took a detour in Palo Alto, and Tucson, and even lost his way at home. Three losses silenced the USC title hype, and while Barkley set school and conference records on a near-weekly basis, he raised eyebrows with a sharply increased interception total and slowly fell from Heisman grace.

Yet Barkley's story isn't finished yet. A shot at redemption has arrived. Beat UCLA, beat Notre Dame, win the Pac-12 championship and go to the Rose Bowl, and Barkley's superb USC legacy will be forever set.

''It's like the presidential race,'' said Steve Clarkson, Barkley's longtime personal quarterback coach. ''Barack Obama was running away with it, and then he falls asleep at that first debate. Then Mitt Romney is winning the whole thing. But if you looked at the foundation of it, you could understand how it might turn around and come back the other way. That's kind of like how it is for Matt.''

Even though Barkley's major statistics are mostly on par with his stellar 2011 season, there's a perception that he hasn't sufficiently progressed. Outside expectations for Barkley were off the charts at the start of the season, and USC compounded those by making Barkley the focus of a national promotional campaign.

When one's face is on a giant video board in Times Square, how could results possibly match the hype?

Barkley ranks second in the NCAA with 33 touchdowns, one behind Texas Tech's Seth Doege. He is in the top 12 nationally in passing yards and quarterback rating, but for a preseason Heisman favorite, top 12 doesn't cut it. Even Barkley, asked directly if he thought he had improved this season, gave a tepid answer.

''In certain ways, yeah, absolutely,'' Barkley said. ''There's always going to be stuff that I have to get better at. I think we've done a great job of moving the ball (compared to) the beginning of the season.''

Barkley is throwing touchdowns at the exact same rate he did last year (3.3 per game) and his yardage-per-game average is actually a tick higher, as is his average yards per attempt. Quarterback rating and completion percentage are down a sliver, but the one statistic that jumps off the page is interceptions.

Barkley threw 14 interceptions as a freshman, then 12 as a sophomore and seven last season. Barkley has 13 interceptions this season, including seven in his last three games.

That's a staggering increase for a senior quarterback, and one that has spawned a number of theories. USC coach Lane Kiffin credits defenders. Clarkson estimated that 70 percent of interceptions are caused by quarterback-receiver miscommunication, and Clarkson agreed with another explanation put forth.

''The protection hasn't been nearly the same as it was a year ago,'' said former UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, now a Pac-12 Network analyst. ''Losing one of the top offensive linemen in the country, (Matt) Kalil, to the draft was a huge deal. ... When you have to keep the running back in to protect, Barkley's ability to check the ball down, as he was able to do last year, is much more difficult. So, if you look at those things combined, you see why interceptions are up.''

Indeed, the increase in Barkley's interception ratio almost mirrors his sack ratio. Barkley was sacked eight times in 12 games last season, but has already been sacked 14 times in 10 games this season.

While there's no direct connection between sacks and interceptions, sacks are an indication of pressure, and pressure can cause a quarterback to make unwise throws that lead to interceptions.

''When things don't go quite right, it's easy, when you're looking at a television set or at the game, and say, 'Oh, the quarterback did this or that,''' said Clarkson, long regarded as one of the country's top quarterback coaches. ''When he's the one who had the expectations set so high, (Barkley) will take the heat. To his credit, he's never been a guy to say, 'We're winning because of me and we're losing because of them.'''

USC has done a lot of winning because of Barkley. After Oregon beat USC 62-51 this month, Ducks coach Chip Kelly praised Barkley along with Andrew Luck as ''the two best quarterbacks I've faced.''

Neuheisel is able to laugh when he recalls last year's USC-UCLA game, in which Barkley threw six touchdowns in a 50-0 USC victory. UCLA fired Neuheisel two days later.

''That was certainly a game that featured Matt Barkley,'' Neuheisel said. ''It was a 'Let's get Matt the Heisman' kind of game. He would have got my vote after that night, I promise you that.''

The Heisman won't be Barkley's this year, which might lead cynics to say he made a mistake by not leaving for the NFL after last season, when his stock soared after victories over Oregon and UCLA. If Barkley harbors any regrets, even after three losses, he hasn't let them show publicly.

Also, those who watch Barkley closely say he hasn't damaged his future. Neuheisel said Barkley ''will still be highly sought-after at the next level,'' and Clarkson said that Barkley has improved his footwork this year and will impress NFL teams on video and during one-on-one interviews.

''Matt Barkley will be somebody's starting quarterback at some point next year,'' Clarkson said. ''In terms of where he ends up in the draft, there's still a lot to be determined. It's about how he finishes these next three weeks.''

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