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Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

This isn't a new article or anything, (from just after the trade deadline) but with all the money and GM talk of late, figured it was time to break this out and see if we have any options to improve through the MLE, or less likely, through a sign-and-trade.

SG is obvious our biggest need. Mo Pete for the MLE would be great. Ime Udoka, Charlie Bell and Pietrus are out there as well. And although we probably don't need much front-court help, I also like Luke Walton, Travis Outlaw, Mikki Moore and Kapono.

And be aware that this is Hollinger, so some of the actual bball analysis is horrible.

Updated: Top 25 free agents in summer of '07
By John Hollinger
ESPN Insider

Now that the trading deadline is past us, it's time to look ahead to another big personnel frenzy: free agency. And unlike the tease of a week ago, something actually is going to happen this summer. One of the best free agent crops in years is set to go on the market, with All-Stars Chauncey Billups, Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis potentially headlining the crew if all three choose to exercise early termination options in their contracts.

Unfortunately, our free agents might be all dressed up with no place to go this summer. Charlotte and Orlando are the only teams that figure to have enough cap space to make a maximum contract offer, although Memphis and Milwaukee could get into that range with another deal around draft day. That means most of the players on this list will be fighting over midlevel scraps instead of mulling max-type offers, and even then the pickings might be slim because so many clubs have luxury tax concerns.

Thus, get ready for a rarity in recent years -- a buyer's market. Teams that saved their pennies for this summer should end up doing well, as there's plenty of talent to choose from. I've updated my list of the top 25 free agents available this summer based on how players have performed this season (I last revised it at the start of the season), and as you'll see, a number of players have made bids for serious paydays thanks to breakout years.

Here's how the top 25 looks today, keeping in mind that this list is not based on present value but future performance over the life of a multiyear contract. Also, note that my list doesn't include players who are unlikely to become free agents -- Mike Bibby, for instance, has an opt-out in his contract that he said he won't exercise, so I've scratched him from the list.

(p) -- Has player option to become a free agent in 2007-08
(r) -- Restricted free agent.

1. Chauncey Billups, Pistons (p)
Billups was the No. 1 free agent when I made my list before the season, and there's no reason to revise that assessment now.

The sharpshooting guard has the highest PER of any free-agent-to-be and, as I noted in an earlier piece on Steve Nash, is likely to fare well as he gets into his 30s because his primary assets (size and shooting) won't diminish with age.

2. Vince Carter, Nets (p)
The difference between Carter and Lewis is much, much smaller than you might think. For starters, their statistical performance this season hasn't been far apart: a PER of 21.22 for Lewis and 22.16 for Carter. Lewis is also three years younger and, as a 6 foot-10-inch shooting specialist, he's likely to play at a high level for the duration of his new contract. The same can't be said for a player like Carter who depends heavily on his leaping and athleticism.

So why Carter at No. 2? A couple reasons. First, there's a difference at the defensive end -- while Carter doesn't play a whole lot of defense, Lewis doesn't play any. Second, his ceiling is just too high. When he's right, Carter can carry a team for weeks at a time, and Lewis hasn't demonstrated that kind of ability yet.

3. Rashard Lewis, Sonics (p)
The gap between spots No. 3 and 4 is longer than Yao Ming's inseam. Lewis potentially will get a max contract in the $100-million neighborhood; the next three players on this list might not get half of that.

As with Carter, he has the option to sign an extension with his team between now and the end of the June, but it wouldn't seem to be in either player's interests to do so when they could get a new, long-term deal this summer.

4. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (p)
Wallace is perhaps the game's most unheralded star, using his tremendous athleticism to block shots, crash the boards and throw down transition jams. He's also effective enough off the bounce that he averages 16.2 points per game despite a hideous outside shot.

Considering he's only 24 and seems to have considerable upside left to explore, he might be the most undervalued commodity on this year's market.

5. Mo Williams, Bucks
The departure of T.J. Ford allowed Williams to become a starter, and he's taken that opportunity and run with it. Williams is putting up big numbers -- 18.3 points, 6.3 assists -- and looks increasingly confident running the point despite questions in this area when he left college.

Like Wallace, he's only 24 and he's improved every year, so he'll be a prime target for teams who need point guard help but can't afford Billups.

6. Grant Hill, Magic
This is where the rankings get less defined. Hill is clearly the best player left on the list. But we don't how many games he'll be available to play, which is why nobody is going to offer Hill a deal longer than two or three years.

That said, he's still a star when healthy and easily could be the piece that puts a contending team over the top, plus he's a class act who won't ruffle feathers wherever he goes.

7. Darko Milicic, Magic (r)I had Darko rated fifth heading into this season, but he's cost himself a lot of money this year. For every game like Monday's effort against the Bulls -- 14 points, 16 rebounds and five blocks in a road upset -- there are two others where he loafs aimlessly up and down the court before checking out with two points, three boards and four fouls.

He's a big-time shot-blocker and a tantalizing post player, but so far the potential hasn't added up to nearly as much production as we had hoped. He's 7-feet tall and doesn't turn 22 until June, so somebody will take a chance on his talent.

8. Anderson Varejao, Cavs (r)I'm not sure how high to put Varejao. On the one hand, scouts and execs absolutely love the guy because he plays hard all the time and never needs the ball. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if he's already pretty close to his ceiling as far as productivity and, if so, whether that output is worth anything more than the midlevel exception.

I'm not ruling out future improvement, but I'd sure as heck be wondering this if I was about to pay him.

9. Andres Nocioni, Bulls (r)The Wild Bull of the Pampas is putting together his second straight solid season and, at 27, figures to have plenty left in the tank.

The one complication at the moment is the plantar fasciitis in his foot, which could make teams skittish if he can't come back this season and show his usual form.

10. Chris Webber, Pistons
Wait, you mean he's not finished? Webber looked deader than the hot dog stand at a PETA convention before coming to Detroit but has been rejuvenated in Motown. I'm not buying the part about the 55.4-percent shooting mark, but he's shown he still can orchestrate an offense and work the boards with his huge mitts.

That should net him another decent contract, though, as with Hill, it might not be for more than a couple years.

11. Ruben Patterson, Bucks
People are going to stay away from this guy because of his reputation, but that might be a mistake. He's playing the best basketball of his career right now, averaging 14.4 points per game and shooting 54.5 percent from the floor. Plus, he's mellowed considerably off the floor and hasn't gotten into trouble in years.

He's 31, he's only 6-5 and he can't shoot, so if he loses a step he's finished. But he doesn't seem to have lost a thing athletically, and could be a big value this summer if teams don't get too crazy with the years.

12. Travis Outlaw, Blazers (r)
Outlaw hasn't played a ton of minutes this year, but when he's played, the 22-year-old forward has been effective. With his length and athleticism he has more potential than any other player outside the top 7, and after four years it looks like he's finally starting to put it together as a real basketball player.

At this point in the list, the gamble on that potential might be a better bet than a known quantity with a lower ceiling.

13. Luke Walton, Lakers
He chose the right time to have a breakout year. The fourth-year forward has improved tremendously as a scorer, which in turn has made his devastating passing skills even more of a threat.

On the downside, he's a better fit in a read-and-react system like L.A.'s than on a one-on-one team, so not every club will be a good match. Plus, he's only had one good season so teams shouldn't get too giddy with the bidding.

14. Jerry Stackhouse, Mavericks
Stackhouse has been one of the game's best sixth men since coming to Dallas, and this year has been no exception. He's upped his accuracy to 42.8 percent, which doesn't sound great but is more than enough once you consider how often he gets to the stripe, and he's averaging nearly a point every two minutes.

Stackhouse is 32 and misses 20 games every year with injuries, but he should have a couple good years left.

15. Mo Peterson, Raptors
Of the three long-range specialists (Peterson, Matt Carroll and Jason Kapono) who figure to get paid this summer, Peterson is the worst shooter and the best basketball player. I can't provide a good explanation for why he lost his starting job in Toronto, but his performance hasn't fallen off one iota and, at 29, he figures to stick around for a while.

He could be a good value on a three-year deal around the midlevel.

16. Matt Carroll , Bobcats
Carroll has a rep as a shooter and he certainly can stroke it, but unlike a lot of shooters he has a real knack for getting to the line. That helps him get points even when the jumper isn't falling, which is why he scores so much (19.3 points per 40 minutes) for a shooting specialist.

He's 26 and his numbers this season aren't too far off his career norms, so he should be able to do this for quite a bit longer.

17. Mikki Moore, Nets
The hyperactive big man has been a revelation with New Jersey this season, shooting 61.5 percent from the floor while basically saving the Nets' season after Nenad Krstic went down. That said, I would bid very carefully with him.

He's 31 years old and he's never played anywhere close to this well before, plus the field-goal percentage has fluke written all over it.

18. Jason Kapono, Heat
A non-entity before the season, Kapono worked his way into the Heat's starting lineup by ditching the high-difficulty Larry Bird fadeaways and sticking to spot-up shooting.

He's hitting a sizzling 52.5 percent on 3-pointers as a result and has the fourth-best true shooting percentage in basketball; that should earn him a nice payday over the summer.

19. DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards (p)
Stevenson had to settle for the minimum after opting out of his contract with Orlando a year ago; I have a feeling he'll do better this time.

The 25-year-old defensive specialist finally is beginning to blossom at the offensive end, shooting 46.5 percent on 3-pointers while reducing the 20-foot fadeaways off the dribble that had been his previous calling card.

20. Bonzi Wells, Rockets (p)
Wells' season mostly has been a lost cause, but he's had a few nice games recently. Moreover, everybody in the league still understands how he physically can overwhelm smaller guards with his power inside.

Wells won't get anything close to the 5-year, $36 million deal he turned down from Sacramento a year ago, but his off-year in Houston won't shut off the market completely.

21. Earl Boykins, Bucks (p)
What happens to a 5-5 guard with a shaky jumper when he gets into his 30s? I think more than a few teams are reluctant to find the answer to that question, which is why the bidding for Boykins might be less enthusiastic than one might expect just by looking at his stats.

The Hawks' experience with Speedy Claxton this year probably won't help Earl's case any.

22. Ime Udoka, Trail Blazers
After emerging from nowhere to become Portland's defensive ace and a surprisingly effective 3-point shooter from the corners (39.1 percent), Udoka looks to be in line for a nice payday.

Unfortunately for him, there are a lot of wing-defender types on the market this summer (Wallace, Patterson, Stevenson, Mickael Pietrus, Desmond Mason, Dahntay Jones, etc.), so that's likely to keep the bidding from getting too crazy.

23. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors (r)
Despite a second consecutive off-year, Pietrus remains intriguing because of his combination of defensive talent and 3-point shooting.

He's still only 25 and has scored at a decent clip his entire career, but his inability to put the pieces together is leaving a lot of people bewildered.

24. Charlie Bell, Bucks (r)
The fourth key Milwaukee player who will become a free agent after the season, Bell should be a desirable commodity because he's still fairly young (27), he plays solid defense on the wings despite his small stature (6-3), and he can shoot the rock (36.9 percent on 3s for his career).

25. Desmond Mason, Hornets
A great athlete with a hideous jumper, Mason's offensive limitations keep him from climbing higher up this list in spite of his undeniable physical skills.

The worry is that those crazy hops will diminish as he gets into his 30s -- he hits the big 3-0 in October -- while the offensive struggles will persist.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

1. Mo Williams is already a three point bomber and he could become the next sharp shooter. This guy can stretch the floor and make the defense pay for double teaming.

2. Ruben Patterson really got the attention of bucks fans and not for his troubling ways (He was on good behavior the entire season even with the tank job laid down by the bucks). This guy plays HARD from baseline to baseline....from start to finish. He is big and strong with alot of explosive ability. He is very good at going up strong...otherwise it hurts to watch him shoot.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

GET ME MO! i have seen VERY few Bucks games but the guy was on my fantasy team and he put up digits every night.... he can nail threes and he can pass... which i believe would solve our PG issue after we trade tinsley o yeah and he gets boards

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

The original question is what we could get for the MLE. I think that Mo Pete would be a good answer to this question. Mo Williams would be also, but I think that he will get more than that. I would think that the Heat will overpay to keep Kapono. Carroll is another good option, but I think that he will demand more than the MLE.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

Mo Williams would be my first choice. He'd fill a position of need. I'll be very surprised if he's not a Buck next year though. They've got the cash to keep him, no viable replacement, and they gave up T.J. Ford to give him a shot.

Other than him, I like Charlie Bell. There's really no one else who excites me very much. Mo Pete, Pietrus, and Matt Carroll would all be decent players for the Pacers. Until either Danny or Shawne is traded, we should not bring in anyone who's primarily an SF. Big men are too expensive and I think we've got a better PF, C corps than most teams in the league.

Jason Kapono will only be effective on a team with a top-notch drive and dish guy (a la Dwayne Wade or Nash), he'd be a terrible signing for the Pacers at this point.

I like what I've seen out of Charlie Bell and I think he has similar skills to someone like Delonte West. He's a combo guard who can play the 1 and the 2 positions effectively enough to be a backup at both. I'd be interested to here our Milwaukee poster's opinion on him as he's likely seen him play more than I have.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

I'd like Mo Williams, a fast point guard for an up-tempo offense...we have still the mid level expection.
Then we need a shooter...in my opinion Kapono and Carroll are ONLY shooter...i prefer Mo Peterson, sign and trade?

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

I like Mo but here is the thing.

Someone started a thread and pointed out that the point guard position is the most important one on the team now these days, period. You need a top 10 point guard. Tinsley is just an average point guard, and I really don't see Mo Williams that much better than Jamaal. (I like the way he plays over Jamaal, but that doesn't make him any better.)

So maybe Mo would be a quick fix he still isn't the right answer. I would probably pass on him.

The only guy I think worth giving the full MLE to that we can use is Gerald Wallace, but he will command more than that.

I really like Outlaw. I think he would give us a lot of speed and athletic ability. Can play 2-4. Boykins would give us speed and scoring at the point. A good backup despite his defenseive shortcomings he gives you more than he gives up. Bell can really shoot the ball. Chuck is an energy guy who gives you rebounds and defense, a good athlete and the same goes for Matt Barnes. DJ is a athletic wing defender and Atkins is a solid veteran point guard who can shoot well.

The MLE will be between 5 and 6 million this year. That's less than Dun, Foster, Tins, and Murphy make. If you think Mo Williams will make less than those guys, I think you're nuts.

If you've watch Golden St. play at all, you could see that Barnes can easily play the 2 guard position on both sides of the floor. When he wasn't starting, he usually came in to spell JRich or Jack... so I don't understand your argument there.

It's true Diener has done nothing, I just said at a cheap price, he would interest me. There have been a lot of guys who have rode the bench, and then excelled with time and the right team. The kid plays hard, can run the point though he's probably undersized, and he can shoot. He's hasn't done anything so he could be had for cheap. Just said it was a thought.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

If you've watch Golden St. play at all, you could see that Barnes can easily play the 2 guard position on both sides of the floor. When he wasn't starting, he usually came in to spell JRich or Jack... so I don't understand your argument there.

I think that he is saying that we already have Dunleavy, Granger and Shawne..as well as Marquis...playing the same position that Barnes would.

Unless one of them is moved.....there is no reason to get a SG/SF that should be getting a decent amount of minutes since they will be playing next to or behind one our existing SG/SF rotation.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

we trade jo to a team like charlotte or chicago who have room under the cap, we should have enough to go after 2 fa's. i wouldn't mind having a darko and stevenson. wallace is another i'd love to have off that list.

Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

we trade jo to a team like charlotte or chicago who have room under the cap, we should have enough to go after 2 fa's. i wouldn't mind having a darko and stevenson. wallace is another i'd love to have off that list.

Wrong. You could take Jermaine off payroll and we still wouldn't be far enough under the cap to do any kind of damage.

The only way we pick up a free agent is with the exceptions or a S&T.

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Re: Top 25 Free Agents Available This Summer

Talks coming out of Milwaukee:
Since the PG is so important, some in the industry and close to the Bucks say Mo could get a contract for around 7-8 mil per year.

Wow...that's alot....if not overpaying him....but given the list of PGs out there.....that are FA....I guess that isn't too surprising.

Nowadays, the only way that any team can get any of the decent players is to show up at their doorstep at 12:01am after the FA signing begins with a huge bag of money. Its like the coaching search....if we wait too long...we'll just get the remaining scraps to pick from.