Cobra_Kai wrote:I would disagree on Weaver. He hasn't shown anything over his first two years that make me think he will ever be more than a spot-start at best. I think he's one of these guys who gets by on his name - he was such a highly touted prospect, people tend to go for him. He wasn't good last year, and he's had an atrocious spring.

Hasn't shown anything? Weaver basically had the same year as he did in 2006, only without the good luck in having that ERA stay relatively low. In '07, he had a bit of arm trouble (that's more nagging than the red flag variety) and still managed to pitch well even if his K rate fell off a bit, which recouped in 2008. He's still worth drafting in the later rounds, let alone to be picked up off FA.

So what you're saying is that without the luck he had in 2006, his ERA jumped. So why do I want him? Did he suddenly get lucky again? Don't get me wrong, he's a decent pitcher, and there's a chance he has a good season, but his last two years, coupled with this awful spring training don't exactly scream "great pickup" to me.

Fade2White12 wrote:Todd Helton. He's only owned in only 11% of Yahoo! leagues and 25% of ESPN. He's been hitting the cover off the ball in ST, hasn't had an issues with his back since he started playing, and will be the primary 1B and #3 hitter on a good offense and in a great hitter's park.

Agreed, but not unowned in any of my leagues. I think the only player I own in every league. Definitely worth a spot in all 12 team leagues. Especially OBP and OPS leagues. Health is a concern, but looking very good thus far.

Cobra_Kai wrote:I would disagree on Weaver. He hasn't shown anything over his first two years that make me think he will ever be more than a spot-start at best. I think he's one of these guys who gets by on his name - he was such a highly touted prospect, people tend to go for him. He wasn't good last year, and he's had an atrocious spring.

Hasn't shown anything? Weaver basically had the same year as he did in 2006, only without the good luck in having that ERA stay relatively low. In '07, he had a bit of arm trouble (that's more nagging than the red flag variety) and still managed to pitch well even if his K rate fell off a bit, which recouped in 2008. He's still worth drafting in the later rounds, let alone to be picked up off FA.

So what you're saying is that without the luck he had in 2006, his ERA jumped. So why do I want him? Did he suddenly get lucky again? Don't get me wrong, he's a decent pitcher, and there's a chance he has a good season, but his last two years, coupled with this awful spring training don't exactly scream "great pickup" to me.

For one thing, Weaver's FIP ERA has never been higher than a little over 4.00 and in fact, last year's FIP ERA was just about identical to 2006 (the luck-based year) which was in the high 3's. Conversely, that's to say that a 4.33 ERA might also be a bit of bad luck. Because he's a flyball pitcher, the chances are likely he won't have his ERA dip below 3.50, but what can't go under the radar is if he can pitch 200 innings, here's a guy who can exceed 160 K's with the upshot of an ERA in between 3.50 and 4.00. That's very good production for a late-round pitcher who can land as a likely #4-5 starter on most fantasy teams. He might not be the world-beater Ervin Santana was last year, sure, but the chances are also good he'll be more than just useful.

Jered Weaver has a career ERA of 3.71, career WHIP of 1.25 and career K/9 of 7.27 and career BB/9 of 2.58 at age 27, not sure what is not to like. His biggest wart is his FB% which has been trending down his entire career so far. If you don't think Weaver should be owned in every league I think you need to re-evaluate how you judge pitching.

Ender wrote:Jered Weaver has a career ERA of 3.71, career WHIP of 1.25 and career K/9 of 7.27 and career BB/9 of 2.58 at age 27, not sure what is not to like. His biggest wart is his FB% which has been trending down his entire career so far. If you don't think Weaver should be owned in every league I think you need to re-evaluate how you judge pitching.

+1

If Weaver can mix the deadly cocktail of good health, less flyballs, and league-average luck he will far,far outperform his ADP. With what the Angels achieved with Ervin last year, this is very realistic.