Patriot-News file photosCasey now holds a slim advantage in what had been considered one of the safest races in the country for Senate Democrats. With a huge blitz of TV ads, Smith has pulled himself into the race.

Casey leads Smith, 48 percent to 45 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this week. Casey had an 18-point lead in that poll on Aug. 1.

And Casey leads Smith, 41 percent to 39 percent, in a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll released this week.

“This race is too close to call,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

On Thursday, former Gov. Ed Rendell told The Times-Tribune of Scranton that the polls have closed because Casey “hasn’t run a campaign.”

“They’ve run a noncampaign up until now and Smith has put a lot of money into the campaign,” Rendell said.

Rendell, who beat Casey in the 2002 Democratic primary on his way to becoming governor, added that he still thinks Casey will win, especially if President Barack Obama wins Pennsylvania. And he said Casey’s numbers should improve when he spends more money and runs more ads.

Citing the need to preserve Social Security and Medicare, Casey went on the attack in a news conference in Philadelphia Thursday in an effort to fend off Smith.

Casey wouldn’t specify what he’d support to extend the programs’ solvency. He says a broad, bipartisan agreement will have to be negotiated in Congress and that he’s willing to work with Republicans.

Smith’s campaign says he’d let a temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax expire in January. He also supports giving taxpayers the option of diverting Social Security taxes into private investment accounts and giving future Medicare beneficiaries the option of getting a government check to help buy private coverage.

Casey opposes those ideas. 

‘Zero’ tolerance

Casey shrugs off the “Silent Bob” label often used by Pennsylvania Republicans who accuse him of being a phantom political presence.

Rather than be peeved by a New York Times reporter’s description of him as a politician whose excitement is “most often registered by some extra eyebrow activity,” the Scranton Democrat humbly incorporated the self-deprecating depiction at a stop in Carlisle last week.

But when he’s asked about the “Senator Zero” tag Smith has slighted him with in TV ads, Casey’s staid repose simmers to a lukewarm boil.

“It doesn’t make a lot of sense when you look at my record in terms of getting results for people,” Casey said last week after a Cumberland County Democratic Party dinner at Dickinson College.

He rattled off a number of legislative accomplishments to counter Smith’s argument that he has not passed a single bill in his first term.

Casey cited his leadership role in the fight for the payroll tax cut, trade adjustment assistance, and for provisions to aid state diary farmers with their costs of production.

He trumpets his role in championing the inclusion of pregnant women’s assistance in Obama’s health care reform law.

“So I think on a whole host of fronts I get results,” he added. “I think people know that and we’ll see what they say on Election Day.”

Despite stout name recognition and the intimidating power of incumbency, the heir to Pennsylvania’s most recent political dynasty has watched his lead dwindle.

Formerly indifferent state Republicans are rallying to Smith.

“Tom Smith has made a commitment to getting his message out,” said Mike Barley, executive director of the Pennsylvania GOP. “He’s been able to tell Bob Casey’s story, which is that he’s done nothing in Washington except vote with the president 95 percent of the time.”

“The Smith campaign and the GOP has been in overdrive trying to spin some momentum for Tom Smith,” Smar said.

Smith self-finances ad blitz

The turn toward Smith has come despite a well-meaning but oafish depiction of his no-exceptions anti-abortion stance in August.

In an anecdote of his daughter becoming pregnant outside of marriage that Smith shared with reporters, he said out-of-wedlock pregnancy was “similar” to rape from “a father’s position.”

The remark drew condemnation, even from some Republicans. But it never captured national media attention.

A retired Armstrong County coal executive, Smith has plunged into his personal fortune to the tune of $6.5 million.

A former Democrat and Plumcreek Twp. supervisor, Smith has now emerged as a tea party favorite. And he has earned the grudging respect of establishment commonwealth GOP power brokers.

Though a political unknown and party outsider, Smith won the Republican primary against Steve Welch, a candidate endorsed by Gov. Tom Corbett and the state GOP.

Smith has drawn the public support of Corbett, U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey and even former Gov. Tom Ridge, a moderate Republican.

Smith’s sudden ascent has reportedly piqued the curiosity of national Republican donors with deep pockets searching to finance candidates that can help the GOP reclaim the U.S. Senate.

“There’s a real chance in the next couple of weeks that a lot of attention could descend on Pennsylvania for the presidential and the U.S. Senate races,” Barley said. 

Casey is raising cash

Those in Casey’s inner circle say he was always ready for a fight.

“The good news is that from the outset Sen. Casey has been running scared and that’s the only way to run,” said Thomas Leonard, a Philadelphia power lawyer and former Casey campaign treasurer.

“If you run hard, you expect your opponent to mount a serious campaign, and Bob’s done that,” Leonard added. “The thing he’s got going for him now is the more people learn about Tom Smith, the more questions they have about his qualifications.”

“I got two things I’ve got to do,” Casey said. “One is that I’ve got to do my job, and I’ve been doing that well. But we also have to raise money ... That’s a difficult challenge. I can’t just write a check.”

“I don’t think he’s campaigning in a highly intensive way, but I think he’s getting around and making sure people get to see him,” said Buttenwieser, an influential Democratic Party fundraiser.

“We spent 18-24 months precisely preparing to take on a person that was a self-funder. We have money in the budget to match Smith all the way through the next 3-4 weeks. So it’s a concern, but it’s not a panicked concern at all.”

Casey’s emphasis on fundraising rather than hand-shaking and baby-kissing could be a result of the controversial U.S. Supreme Court ruling in the Citizens United case, said Dan Hartman, a state Democratic campaign consultant. The ruling allowed largely unfettered funds into political campaigns.

“It actually removes a lot of political figures from the [campaign] process,” Hartman said. “Let’s face it, they’ve got to make more trips to Florida, Oregon, New York and Illinois to raise money to combat it because we’re never going to be able to match the right dollar-for-dollar.”

But a Smith campaign spokeswoman said Casey has preferred to rake in contributions from Washington lobbyists and special interest groups on the left, instead of meeting voters.

“He’s avoiding voters just like he is avoiding his record — a record of zero accomplishment and zero plan to grow the economy and create jobs,” Smith spokeswoman Megan Piwowar said.

G. Terry Madonna, a prominent state pollster and Franklin & Marshall College professor, said Casey has never immersed himself in retail politics.

“That’s basically been Casey’s style,” Madonna said. “He’ll go and do a lot of events, but I don’t think he feels compelled to do five events a day.”

The Casey and Smith campaigns have been scheduled a debate in Philadelphia on Friday, Oct. 26.

It could be an important moment in a race that’s far more competitive than almost anyone predicted. 

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