Jan 17, 2013

ASEAN - Abe’s ASEAN tour stresses regional tension

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's trip to key ASEAN states Indonesia,
Vietnam and Thailand this week is a sign of the times in East Asia, one of
tense Sino-Japanese relations, geopolitical competition, and strategic
counterbalancing.

These realities are also
underscored by the dispatch this week of senior US officials to South Korea and
Japan for consultations by an Obama administration concerned by heightened
tensions between Beijing and Tokyo over the territorial disputes in the East
China Sea.

Often, the first foreign stop for
a new Japanese prime minister is Washington. However, for an Obama
administration in transition with a new foreign policy team not yet in office,
budget deficit squabbles with congress, and planning for his second inaugural
ceremony, scheduling problems proved too difficult.

Instead, Abe's first trip abroad
is to Southeast Asia, part of a larger Japanese diplomatic offensive in the
region.

During his previous term as prime
minister, Abe's first trip in the region was to China. However, last week Abe
expressed concern about anti-Japanese feelings and actions across China.
"The problem is," said Abe, "that harm is being caused to
Japanese companies and Japanese nationals in China who are contributing to the
Chinese economy and society."

Tensions have mounted after
Tokyo's actions in regard to the disputed East China Sea islets and lingering
historical memories.

This, in turn, has fueled
Japanese nationalism, as I discovered during a recent trip to Tokyo.

Senior officials told me they are
considering a reinterpretation of Japan's Peace Constitution to permit more
military activities, increased military spending, and forging closer defense
cooperation with the US, ASEAN states and Australia.

Abe's Southeast Asia tour follows
a trip last week by Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kushida to the Philippines,
Singapore, Brunei and Australia, where new maritime cooperation between Manila
and Tokyo was announced.

Manila is in a heated dispute
with Beijing over contested claims over several islets in the Spratly islands
(known as the Nansha Islands in China). Manila has expressed apprehension over
more assertive Chinese maritime and commercial activities in the South China
Sea.

During Kushida's visit, the
Philippines' Foreign Minister Alberto del Rosario expressed concern over
"the possibility that the freedom of navigation would be adversely
affected."

Japanese multinational companies
are also relocating some production facilities in China to ASEAN states such as
Myanmar or Cambodia.

Regardless, Abe's Southeast Asia
tour reflects growing geopolitical divisions that put East Asia's $20-trillion
economy at risk. China argues that it is responding to Obama's
"rebalancing" toward Asia. Though Washington was preoccupied with two
wars in the Middle East, the US never left Asia.

Washington continued to enhance
its network of alliances with Japan, South Korea, Australia and partnerships
with Singapore and other ASEAN states. The US "pivot" was mainly a
greater geopolitical and diplomatic focus on Asia and a modestly enhanced
maritime presence along with continuing to enhance its defense relationships.

China's more assertive approach
began in 2008, when the US financial crisis led many to view the US as in
decline.

China's "nine-dash
line" territorial claims, encompassing 80 percent of the South China Sea,
increased maritime emphasis, and political wrangling with ASEAN over disputed
South China Sea claims have sparked concern across the region.

Abe's tour this week reflects a
trend toward counter-balancing in the Indo-Pacific in response to a widespread
perception of a more assertive China.

Abiding by former Chinese leader
Deng Xiaoping's policy of "putting aside disputes and seeking joint
exploration" appears the most sensible way to reduce tensions.

More broadly, the US and China
need to move beyond action-reaction to an entente with agreed rules and norms
to stabilize the sustained presence of both Washington and Beijing in East
Asia.

Robert A. Manning

The author is a senior fellow of the Brent Scowcroft Center for
International Security at the Atlantic Council of the US. He served as a senior
counselor from 2001 to 2004 and a member of the US Department of State Policy
Planning Staff from 2004 to 2008.

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