The Lisbon Treaty will mean more MEPs: another reason to vote No

Spare a thought for perhaps the only people who would be clear losers in the event that the European Constitution Lisbon Treaty is not ratified: Members of the European Parliament. Under the terms of the treaty, the number of MEPs will be reduced from 785 to 751. That's bad enough. But, if it hasn't been ratified in time for the Euro-elections on 4 June, our numbers will be cut – angels and ministers of grace defend us! – to just 736.

Since even the most mulishly optimistic of Irish Europhiles are not contemplating a referendum before the autumn of next year, it is hard to see how this awful fate can be avoided. Unless, of course, as I have argued before, the key provisions are pushed through the Irish Parliament without a plebiscite.

Then again, if by October 2009 we find that the old institutional rules have managed to take the strain, it will be increasingly difficult to push the Irish into a second vote. After all, the risks and gains for Brian Cowen are asymmetrical. If he wins, he'll be slightly better off than now. If he loses, he'll almost certainly have to resign, and will be remembered ever after as the Taoiseach Who Wouldn't Take No For An Answer. Biffo may not be the sharpest tool in the box; but he's not a complete fool.