I wonder if this flight will do better than AA's ORD to DME flight, which has gotten off to a rough start. Have they converted yet to the 767, I believe they have, and if so, I wonder if the loads are better on the flight now.

I just checked the loads for random dates in May, June and July. While some days look good (not daily service), most days are still quite light. They are flying with the new premium configuration aircraft. I wonder if they are having a hard time competing with AA who beat them to the punch on Moscow service.

Quoting Trojanclipper (Reply 6):I just checked the loads for random dates in May, June and July. While some days look good (not daily service), most days are still quite light. They are flying with the new premium configuration aircraft.

Remember that majority of premium bookings dont treally happen till within the last 2-3 weeks.

Agreed. But seeing several days with only 4 or 6 psgrs booked in Y over the summer...It looks like it begins daily service later in the summer or else some of the days I checked were already planned no-ops.

However, several of the return flights are booked pretty full....So I have hopes, not so much as a non-rev, but hope none the less.

Hopes aren't too high. A lot of those bookings are from Russian student J1 workers traveling to the US for summer work. A lot of travel agencies book out many seats every day on DL, SU, AA, and UA for these students. Hundreds and thousands of them travel every summer for job experience. A lot of those seats reflect just that unfortunately.

They are giving a grand dinner for travel agents tomorrow night which shows they do have big expectations. And those expectations must be mostly for connection traffic as MOW-WAS is not a market worth such an endeavour...

The Moscow flight is starting at a rough time, much more so in Russia than in booming DC. But the long term prospects are good. We are talking about 2 biiiiiig cities that happen to be major world capitals. Just as a nonstop, the flight has a strong mandate. But there are many affluent potential tourists in both cities, plus UA has its hub for more traffic. The fine quality of UA's new interior will be important.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):The Moscow flight is starting at a rough time, much more so in Russia than in booming DC. But the long term prospects are good. We are talking about 2 biiiiiig cities that happen to be major world capitals. Just as a nonstop, the flight has a strong mandate. But there are many affluent potential tourists in both cities, plus UA has its hub for more traffic. The fine quality of UA's new interior will be important.

I agree. UA has a couple of things in their favor on this route. First, they far and away have the best hard product of any carrier flying nonstop between the US and Russia, in all classes. Second, the IAD hub is well-positioned to carry governmental traffic, business traffic from the DC area, and traffic from large O&D markets where UA has a strong position (LAX, SFO, SEA, and even ORD all come to mind).

It might be tough for a year or so, but this is a route with good long-term potential for UA. I think they'll be more successful than AA for the reasons mentioned above.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):The Moscow flight is starting at a rough time, much more so in Russia than in booming DC. But the long term prospects are good. We are talking about 2 biiiiiig cities that happen to be major world capitals. Just as a nonstop, the flight has a strong mandate. But there are many affluent potential tourists in both cities, plus UA has its hub for more traffic. The fine quality of UA's new interior will be important.

Kak Dila?

Well, a few points:

1) The DC economy, while probably doing better than the rest of the country, is going through the worst recession in many years. The DC unemployment rate is now 9.9%, Maryland is 6.7%, and Virginia is 6.6%, all up 2-3% just in the last few months. These are the worst rates in over 10 years (I think 25-30 years, but the historical data set I have handy doesn't go back that far). I talk to people at my bus stop who have been laid off and are on their final weeks, business people who tell me there has been a clear tightening. The trigger is not so much changes in federal employment, but rather a signficant real estate bubble that popped, especially for the outlying suburbs. A lot of other people have changed their ideas about how to spend their money. So, I don't think I would use the word "booming", though it is better off than some other areas.

2) Russia requires a visa for U.S. citizens, and the U.S. requires a visa for Russian citizens. These visas generally cannot be purchased at the airport and are time-consuming to obtain, and ask a lot of questions beyond that normally required to evaluate risk. In addition, LED in some ways is a more attractive tourist destination than Moscow. I know I want to see St. Petersrburg in winter and the Hermitage some day, but I have read the Russian visa application, and I'll pass for now. There are many other interesting places to see.

3) Russia has 86 slots in their civil aviation agreement with the U.S. Aeroflot only flies to New York, Los Angeles, and DC. Aeroflot could increase their frequency to DC, but they don't.

4) To get the loads they have so far, UAL has had to do a lot of discounting. If there was no visa requirement, it would be a good mileage run. I'm sure government traffic will help a bit, but, one can't help but wonder if UAL can't find some routes that will yield better margins.

5) For outbound traffic willing to connect, they have options with ORD, JFK, ATL, and I'm sure a few other places I have not thought of.

To be honest, SFO-DME might have made more sense...Aeroflot does not serve it anymore, and you just have to walk around Golden Gate park on early Sunday morning to know there is some local market, though probably not daily.

As someone pointed out, J visa summer jobs are common, and you will find Russian pool lifegaurds here during the summer. I suspect the domestic competition for the same jobs will be tougher this year though. Why bring someone from thousands of miles away and go through all that bothersome paperwork when you can now hire someone from here?

I don't mean to give you a hard time, just wanted to point a few things that would make the route successful a bit challenging, especially this year.

Yes! I have noticed this...There must be some Russian-owned lifeguard company here in DC, because there are a lot of Russian lifeguards!

Quoting Mowtoib (Reply 12):And those expectations must be mostly for connection traffic as MOW-WAS is not a market worth such an endeavour...

With the exception of some flights between key business cities, a lot of international flights rely on connecting traffic...And United has nice feed at IAD.

Quoting UAORD2000 (Reply 15):The new configuration is phenominal. This is going to help UA build a name in this new market.

Can't wait for the 777 fleet to be complete!

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):Second, the IAD hub is well-positioned to carry governmental traffic, business traffic from the DC area, and traffic from large O&D markets where UA has a strong position (LAX, SFO, SEA, and even ORD all come to mind).

Yes. I think that any route that United launches from IAD to another capital will be at least partially subsidized by government traffic...

Quoting RwSEA (Reply 16):It might be tough for a year or so, but this is a route with good long-term potential for UA.

Yes. Fortunately, there are lots of markets from IAD that have good long-term potential for UA...I wonder if they will be launching any new ones with the economy the way it is, but once things pick up any educated guesses as to what we can expect from UA at IAD?

Quoting Odysseus9001 (Reply 17):I talk to people at my bus stop who have been laid off and are on their final weeks, business people who tell me there has been a clear tightening.

Well that is happening everywhere...But from my casual observations of DC v. NYC, it sure seems to affecting DC less. This past Friday night, I went out for dinner in Georgetown...it was raining, and yet every restaurant we passed was packed as usual...

Quoting Odysseus9001 (Reply 17):The DC unemployment rate is now 9.9%, Maryland is 6.7%, and Virginia is 6.6%, all up 2-3% just in the last few months. These are the worst rates in over 10 years (I think 25-30 years, but the historical data set I have handy doesn't go back that far).

One minor correction though is that the unemployment rates for Northern Virginia and the Maryland suburbs around DC are much lower than the state averages you are quoting. And the Districts rate is largely irrelevant as much of that reflects an area of distinct urban poverty that was never jetting off to Moscow even in "good times."

As others have said, if UA can stick it out, I think this route has long-term potential. In the near term, it's likely going to bleed badly, so we'll just have to see how much resolve UA has.

I believe it has good chance to survice even in these hard times.
There are several reasons for that:

- Aeroflot flight to IAD is bearable only in summer when it goes directly, without a stop at JFK.
- DC area has lower concentration of Russian immigrants (unlike NY and Atlanta) - but there many Russians there working in H1b visas;
- tourist groups may be numerous on this flight;
- D.C. suburbs it's a great place to be - and a wonderful transit point.

It should be taken into consideration that quite strong traffic between US and Russia exists - which is UNRELATED to places where immigrants reside.

Congrats to UA and IAD. I think it is long overdue for a US airline to fly from Washington D.C. to Moscow, quite shocking that it hasn't happened earlier if you ask me, should have happened in the early 90s...

Quoting Odysseus9001 (Reply 17):To be honest, SFO-DME might have made more sense...Aeroflot does not serve it anymore, and you just have to walk around Golden Gate park on early Sunday morning to know there is some local market, though probably not daily.

I agree. Aeroflot used to do well with this service although they had an additional stop in SEA. I believe Alaska handled the ground operations. There are a lot of Russians here in SF and they have close connections to their families and friends "back home."

Maybe I'll start my own airline...LOL. Anyone have an extra couple of billion to loan me???

For years, SU has offered a weekly SVO-IAD flight. For reasons that are unclear to me, it neither suspended, nor upgraded these flights. Presumably, SU determined that SVO-IAD was not a strong market. Otherwise, it would have added more flights to IAD. Now, UA starts daily flights from Washington to Moscow during rough economic times in both countries.

I am confused by all of this. I am asking you to help me understand it. My questions are:
1. Why does UA see opportunity in this market while SU, which has flown to IAD for decades, does not?
2. Over the past 20 years, why didn't SU upgrade this route by adding more flights?
3. In the alternative, why didn't SU withdraw from IAD? (SU pulled out of MIA, ORD, SEA, and SFO).
4. Now that UA is offering a daily flight to DME, is it likely that SU will leave IAD?

25 LAXintl
: Its very likely UA looked at the route now, the same way it has chosen other markets in recent years such as Rome. UA is keenly aware of the number o