January 16, 2008

AS MUCH FUN AS ALL THE INSIDE BASEBALL STUFF IS...:

Now, it goes without saying that there are vast differences between Obama’s candidacy and that of the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the 1980s. Yet there is a lesson from those days that is worth remembering: Jackson did best in heavily white states and those with very large black populations — the northern tier of the country and the Deep South. But in the rest of the United States, his support was weaker.

That was, of course, a result of the very real tensions that existed between the races in many states, especially where African-Americans represented roughly 15 percent, the same amount they represented at the national level.

In other words, Jackson did best in states such as Vermont, Oregon and Wisconsin because there was little white backlash from voters. Or, in places where blacks were such a large part of the electorate — Alabama, South Carolina, Louisiana — that they themselves constitute a big chunk of the Democratic primary voters.

If this pattern holds for Obama, he may face problems in states such as Florida, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. Those are states with large numbers of convention delegates and where the black population is not large enough to make him a winner but sizable enough that there are significant racial tensions.

We can see signs of this in a new Quinnipiac University poll of Florida, where Obama, despite his Iowa win and strong showing in New Hampshire, still trails Clinton 52 percent to 31 percent, or the new CNN national poll, in which he trails her 49 percent to 36 percent.

Clinton, on the other hand, is likely to retain her demographic edge as we move through the primaries. That’s because the proportion of the Democratic electorate that is female is likely to be more than the 55 percent it has been so far.

...campaigns are rather predictable and the actual candidates and their strategies are nearly meaningless.
Posted by Orrin Judd at January 16, 2008 9:09 PM