Abstract

This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for Mtwara region and its districts. The projections were made using a Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility andmigration were projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components were then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, and shows Mtwara’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. Population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows an increase from 1.8 percent in 2003 (with a population of 1,145,655) to 2.0 percent in 2009 (with a population of 1,297,751) and will decrease gradually to 1.8 in 2025 (with a population of 1,724,679). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to increase from 90 male births per 100 females in 2003 to 97 male births per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 143 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 84 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 238 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 134 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. Life expectancy at birth for Mtwara will increase from 43 years in 2003 to 48 years in 2025 for both sexes. For male population, life expectancy at birth will increase from 43 years in year 2003 to 48 years in 2025, while for female population the life expectancy at birth will increase from 42 years in 2003 to 48 years in 2025. On fertility, TFR will decline from 4.9 children per woman in 2003 to 4.6 children per woman in 2025.