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Van Brimmer: Ballpark bet requires careful consideration

You won’t find a betting line on the Savannah Sand Gnats anywhere, not in this newspaper, a Vegas casino or some offshore, online sports book.

Too little interest.

Too much risk.

The Gnats’ owners, however, are worthy of odds-maker attention. The transformation of the Grayson Stadium experience since Hardball Capital took over the club in late 2008 speaks to their expertise. Their success in Fort Wayne, Ind., home to the group’s other minor league franchise, hints at their potential.

Yet Hardball’s desire to partner with the city in building a new ballpark at Savannah River Landing would scare even the brashest bookie. Given the choice between betting on the bat- and glove-wielding teenagers winning a game on a random night or the thorough, intelligent men in Grayson’s owners’ group turning baseball into a draw on par with The Lady and Sons, take the boys in uniform.

At least then you have a 50-50 chance.

The new ballpark bet involves more variables than an advanced calculus test. Foremost among them involves simple arithmetic: For the stadium to be viable, three times as many paying spectators must come out 70 nights a year to watch the building’s main tenants, the Sand Gnats, than currently frequent Grayson.

In a town with a populace apathetic about everything beyond happy hour and Georgia Bulldogs football, averaging 5,000-plus fans a night could be considered a long shot. Even if the ballpark is in a spot accessible to our 12 million tourists.

Then there’s this blistering fastball: Hardball is asking for a $20 million public investment in a public facility that would occupy one-sixth of the most valuable tract of undeveloped land in the county. The idea is the ballpark would spark other development — private, property tax-revenue producing development — at Savannah River Landing.

Want to take that bet?

Hardball all in

Hardball is willing to place a big bet on itself.

The group’s proposal involves fronting approximately 20 percent of the construction costs, without claiming any ownership interest in the facility. Hardball would also invest between $1 million and $1.5 million a year in operations, upkeep and improvements to ensure the ballpark remains an attractive long-term asset.

Hardball’s CEO, Jason Freier, insists his group has as much to lose as the public.

“I can talk until I’m blue in the face about how we think this will work, but the bottom line is we’re willing to put a lot of skin in the game, too,” Freier said. “If it fails, we’re the bigger loser.”

And like the good civil trial lawyer he is, he can argue, point for point, every concern brought by naysayers. He can point to several small cities with “well-done” ballparks that have achieved spectacular attendance growth and seen the stadium act as a catalyst for nearby development.

New parks have been boons in one or both areas for Greensboro, N.C., Charleston and Greenville, S.C., Charleston, W.Va., and of course Fort Wayne.

And Freier doesn’t buy the “Republic of Chatham” argument. Every city claims it is different than anywhere else, he says, that what works in a sports crazy Midwestern town like Fort Wayne won’t work in its backyard. He has graphs and spreadsheets to combat those claims.

But like a slugger focusing on the fences, Freier misses Savannah’s needs in the gaps. This is a city where the police stations are a biohazard risk, where streets flood when the sky clouds over and where the more pressing entertainment facility need is for an arena.

Using SPLOST money promised for use elsewhere to build a stadium is likely to be seen as a violation of public trust. Instead of demonstrating a return on the 2006 SPLOST vote, the new ballpark could backfire on the city when the penny sales tax comes up for renewal next year. And again the next time the aldermen and mayor come up for re-election.

Purpose built

Many of this town’s brightest community and business leaders think Savannah Riverfront Park is not just a good bet, but a home run.

They don’t think of it as a ballpark so much as a “multi-purpose outdoor venue.” A place to host large outdoor concerts. A home for civic events and weddings, banquets, business meetings and the like in spaces built as part of the grandstands.

Basically, it will be exactly what they want in an arena, sans roof.

Which raises the following questions: Why not build an arena? Or if we go for a ballpark, why do we need an arena?

A stadium as concert venue makes some sense. Savannah has a large but less than ideal facility at Forsyth Park and plans exist for a small amphitheater at Trustees’ Garden. The city needs a facility that can accommodate the 5,000- to 10,000-seat shows.

Savannah Riverfront Park could be that venue — for about seven months out of the year, five months less than an arena would serve.

As for the banquet space, you can’t swing Gnate the Gnat in the downtown area without hitting a hotel or party hall that wants that business. If private business owners are vehemently against a convention center hotel underwritten with the help of public bonds, how will they feel about competing with a facility wholly owned by the city?

Freier downplays the banquet space angle. To hear him tell it, Hardball uses those facilities in Fort Wayne more to serve the public than generate revenue. They host events like Easter egg hunts, fireworks shows and haunted houses.

Freier estimates Hardball loses money on these ancillary activities in Fort Wayne. But the events expose people to the facility and perhaps will prompt them to return for a ballgame.

Another smart bet on a board full of them, judging by Hardball’s ongoing success in that northeast Indiana town.

But like it or not, the odds are different here in Savannah. Here’s hoping the local parties consider those before going to the betting window.

Adam Van Brimmer’s column appears each Monday. He blogs several days a week at savannahnow.com and also is a social media regular @avanbrimmer on Twitter and Daddy Warbucks on Facebook.