Bahamas system may bust dry spell next week

THURSDAY UPDATE: Fort Lauderdale tied a record for warmest minimum temperature on Wednesday with a low of 78 degrees. That matches a mark set in 2003. The low in Miami and at Palm Beach International Airport was 76. That was 1 degree short of tying the 2002 record at PBIA and 3 degrees short of the record set in 2010 in Miami.

This morning it was 77 at PBIA; 79 in Fort Lauderdale; and 78 in Miami. Records are 77 (2003); 78 (2003); and 80 (1979), respectively.

The low in Palm Beach this morning was 78.

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ORIGINAL POST: South Florida’s dry weather may come to an end next week as an area of low pressure — possibly even a subtropical system — approaches the area from the Bahamas, National Weather Service forecaster Dan Gregoria said today.

Seven-day forecasts can be hit and miss, but two of the most trusted computer models — NOAA’s GFS and the European model — have both consistently shown the system moving toward the Florida coast before being pushed off to the northeast by Thursday.

“Placement of the trough/ low is uncertain and will have implications on whether we stay on the dry side of this feature or wet side,” Gregoria wrote in the NWS-Miami morning forecast discussion.

There’s no mention of rain in the Palm Beach forecast until Saturday night, when precipitation chances rise to 20 percent. They reach 30 percent on Monday night and 40 percent by Tuesday with breezy conditions.

Meanwhile, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were continuing to monitor a low pressure area off the coast of Mexico. giving it a 50 percent chance of becoming the East Pacific’s first tropical depression of the year, or Tropical Storm Amanda. It was forecast to move north and then northeast late this week, bringing heavy rain to Mexico’s West Coast.

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH FLORIDA: The weather buzz on Tuesday after the release of the government’s National Climate Assessment report was that the Southeastern U.S. and Florida are in for more days of 95 or above. Officially, there are usually a few days at Palm Beach International Airport each summer during which the temperature hits or tops 95.

That’s less likely in Palm Beach, which is often 2 or 3 degrees cooler thanks to an ocean breeze.

But I wondered how much temperatures have shifted over the last 24 years.

Taking a look at record highs, 88 daily records on the books for West Palm Beach — that’s 24 percent of the calendar year — have been posted since 1990, compared with 76 percent that were posted prior to 1990. Records go back to 1888. In other words, three-quarters of the record highs made before 1990 are still standing today.

What seems to have changed more are record warm minimum temperatures. In this category, there have been 175 new marks set since 1990 — 48 percent of the daily records for the year. In July alone, 24 of the record warm lows have occurred since 1990. There are still some 100-year-old records in this category still standing, but very few.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.