Daily Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Sterling price has reversed direction and moved up in the course of Monday. Demand for British currency is believed to be related to the progress in Brexit talks. Specifically, the parties managed to achieve agreement on the transition period terms. However, they still have to settle the Ireland border issue. Sentiments are the main driver of the market now, though some price adjustments can take place later...

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released the Commitments of Traders (COT) for the week ending last Tuesday. Non-commercial traders raised net short position. As for nonreportable positions, net long positions on bitcoin contracts increased as well. Small speculators have been mostly cutting sales over the week, though they traditionally have not influence n the market.

Ahead of the EU summit and Central Banks meeting in the USA and UK, insiders choose not to run risks so far. Trade war tensions persist in the market, which particularly does not let investors resume buying. With further risk asset sales, Asian trading showed mostly negative dynamics. The American currency remains on the rise after the Friday rebound.

US dollar selloffs have continued on Friday. The USD-JPY felt the strongest influence as usual since Japanese currency is in demand while risk assets hardly can attract investors. The euro to US dollar is said to gradually move up above 1.23. Still, European currencies improved too after the previous rollback caused by US economic reports.

The end of the week brought new challenges to the crypto market. Prices were differently directed on Thursday and Friday. However, despite the short-lived upturns, cryptocurrencies generally remain under pressure. The weakening is believed to be related to the Google's ban on crypto advertisements as well as regulation talks in the US Congress.

US dollar improves against main currencies at the European session on Thursday. At the same time, euro is decreasing mostly on the yesterday's statement of Mario Draghi. The pair is near the trend line, which not good, as market experts believe. The anticipated data will have mediate importance for US dollar, though the market pays attention to everything now on upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Demand for a safe haven Japanese yen keeps strengthening. The new political stand-off in the global market can promote buying of the yen and franc if the conflict gathers pace and Trump fails to ease its protectionism policy. The USD-JPY pair tried to exceed 107.00 earlier this week but lured sellers which pushed greenback back below 106.00.

The USD/CAD has formed inverted head and shoulder bullish pattern. The right shoulder has been formed, however the price could still retrace down before a possible bounce. At this point the price might go straight up (from 1.2943) or retrace exactly to POC then bounce. 1.2895-1.2915 is the POC zone so pay attention to it. Targets are 1.2990 – confluence of W H5 and M H3 camarilla pivots. This is a strong

Although the markets welcomed Mario Draghi's speech today, the euro, on the contrary, posted weakening. After his message it has become clear that the Bank will keep buying assets amid steadily low inflation rate...the euro got under pressure after comments on high exchange rates. As a result, the currency plunged below 1.24, after hitting a weekly peak.

The US dollar to yen has shown some stabilization, investors recover from the recent Trump's moves. Still, the pair can move up and it just lacks a driver. The global markets have again become concerned with a possible trade war after US President's statement on Chinese imports. The additional negative impact came from the dismissal of US State Secretary this week.

Bitcoin did not fully recover after the plunge observed at the end of last week and stays within $8,800-9,900. Tom Lee's bitcoin sentiment index indicates that it is good time for investors to buy bitcoin, though the market looks dull. As for altcoins, NEM posted more than 21% upturn d-o-d since Coincheck started paying back money after the hack attack.

Trading was mainly sluggish in currency markets on Monday, though US dollar lost some positions vs the rivals on weak wage growth data in the February labor report. This morning the American currency attempted to turn the table, but the market shows quite moderate development ahead of the release of the US inflation report later in this day...

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