February 22, 2011

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Southeast Missouri Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is expected to announce this week she will pass on a run for U.S. Senate in 2012, POLITICO has learned.

Emerson, who just handily won election to an eighth term, had briefly considered the option after former Sen. Jim Talent decided against a campaign and a few donors reached out to gauge her interest.

But while the congresswoman was seen as a formidable challenger to Sen. Claire McCaskill, she is well-aware her moderate profile would cause her problems in a primary that already includes two more conservative candidates.

Emerson's statement will come before this weekend's state Lincoln Day event in Springfield, Mo., according to a person with knowledge of the timing.

UPDATED @ 1:34 PM, Emerson's statement:

"I'm honored to have been approached by so many encouraging people about the opportunity to serve our state in the U.S. Senate. I gave the matter a significant amount of consideration, talked it over with my family, and consulted with my trusted advisers and staff. We talked about what I can do as a junior member of the Senate and what I can do as a senior member of the U.S. House, and I decided the best possible way to serve Southern Missouri - as well as the entire state - is from my current post. We have a lot of challenges as a district, a state and a nation, and I've chosen where I can best be effective right now, promoting smaller government, working to create jobs, and being a reasonable voice in our often-unreasonable capital," Emerson said.

Former state treasurer Sarah Steelman and former congressional candidate Ed Martin remain the only two Republicans in the race against the first-term Democrat, which has some top leaders in the party concerned about the state of the field.

While Steelman jumped into the race early, her relationship with key members at the top of the party establishment remains rocky. The hard-charging Martin, on the other hand, is viewed by some rank-and-file Republicans as too volatile and polarizing to win statewide.

That leaves a contingent of leaders and donors -- that would have lined up behind a Talent bid -- without a natural candidate to gravitate towards.

Former ambassador and state party chair Ann Wagner has not yet announced her 2012 plans, with spokesperson John Hancock saying she's still "seriously considering" the Senate race.

Wagner has indicated she's not interested in a down-ballot race, but informed GOPers say she hasn't completely ruled out challenging six-term Rep. Todd Akin in a primary.