A few weeks back, Elliotte Friedman noted that the New York Islanders are making it known around the league that they are willing to give up "something" to any team willing to trade for Rick Dipietro's contract (and presumably use a compliance buy out to make it go away).

The Flames are uniquely positioned to pull something like that off. The organization has deep pockets, no cap concerns (in case they want to keep the guy on the roster for some reason) and an urgent need for whatever futures the Islanders would be willing to give up.

On the other hand, Dipietro still has 8 years left at $4.5M/year. His compliance buy out would cost 2/3 of his remaining deal, which washes out to a $24M hit. Ouch.

Now, Murray Edwards is a very rich man, but he was also one of the owners on the front lines of the recent lock-out, so it's not like he lets his money run through his fingers like sand. The team has certainly been willing to spend money to try to win since about 2004, but setting fire to north of 20 million bills is something else altogether.

Is it worth it?

In terms of dollars and sense, probably not. Basically, New York would have to send over a package of players/futures that would ensure an additional $24M (adjusted for inflation over the long term) in revenue while Edwards owns the team to even make it a break even proposition for him.

If we assume the demand for Flames tickets during the regular season won't meanginfully change during a rebuild (it didn't in Edmonton), then there's not much room during the regualr 82-game schedule to make up that money. We'll ignore merch sales since those are probably a drop in the bucket. The Flames are likely close to saturation when it comes to advertising/sponsorship and TV rights deals as well, so the only true, incremental revenue available is playoff games.

The common rule of thumb for post-season revenue is every home game is worth about $1M. So if acquiring Dipietro = getting kids who ensure 24 or more playoff dates, then it might be worth Calgary's time financially.

Of course, the chance of NYI offering players of that value is slim-to-none. You can likely count on your hand the number of players in the league who have that kind of impact. Likely the only one on NY potentially capable of that is John Tavares and he's not going anywhere.

Targets

Let's pretend for a second that Murray Edwards is suddenly completely unconcerned about the bottom line. What do the Islanders have to offer to covince the Flames to sacrifice $24M?

Nino Niederreiter usually comes up as the most obvious choice. Sven Baertschi's countryman and former teammate, Niederreiter shot up the draft charts a couple of years ago after a dominating performance for the Swiss team at the World Juniors. The Islanders chose him 5th overall in 2010, despite that fact Nino only scored 60 points in 65 games in his draft year (NHLE of about 23), which is usually the production of late mid-to-late first round forwards.

Niederreiter managed 70 points in 55 games in his draft+1 season, including 41 goals, but then he was playing on a dominant Portland Winterhawks team. Nino was 4th on his team in scoring and even the yet-to-be drafted Sven Baertschi outscored him by 15 points that year (albeit in 11 more games played). In typical Islanders fashion, the club rushed Niederreiter to the NHL the very next season, where through a combination of legit struggles and bad percentages, Niederreiter had one of the worst rookie efforts in recent memory: 55 games, 1 point and a -29 rating.

the 20 year old winger spent the entirety of this past year in the AHL as a result, where he garnered good, but not great, numbers (28 goals, 50 points in 74 games). Brock Nelson, who was chosen 30th overall in the same draft and is the same age, managed 25 goals and 52 points in 66 games, for instance.

Niederreiter is a big guy at 6'2" and 205 pounds who is willing to crash and bang with the best of them. He also has decent enough hands to score 40 in junior and 20+ in the AHL, but I wonder just what his ultimate upside is. His overall production in the WHL was never outstanding and one wonders how much damage the Islanders did by sticking him in the NHL as a 19-year old.

I think he'll be an NHLer down the line, but I doubt he's destined to be a true high impact guy. Meaning, from my perspective, Nino alone wouldn't be enough to justify setting fire to such a large pile of money.

Other options

- Ryan Strome: Another 5th overall draft pick, Strome ran in place in the OHL after scoring 106 points in just 65 games his draft year. He managed 94 points in 53 games as 19 year old this season and he's a 6'1" centerman, but it's never a good sign when a dude peaks as a 17 years old in junior. Still, Corey Pronman ranks him as Islanders best prospect and a potential first line center.

Most people scoff at the idea of Strome being available, but again we're talking about a $24M gift here.

- 15th overall: The Islanders own the 15th pick in the draft this June, which could yield them a decent player (although probably not a future star). The draft pick alone wouldn't be enough to trade for Dipietro, but it could sweeten the pot. Another first rounder in the Flames coffers would also given them significant bargaining power in their quest to move higher than 6th overall as well.

- Brock Nelson: The aforementioned 2010 first rounder is a 6'3", 205 pound center tore up the WCHA in his sophomore year (28 goals, 47 points in 45 games) before turning pro. Described as a big guy who thinks the game at a high level, Nelson's only knock is his skating.

Nelson probably won't be a high-end scorer in the NHL either, but could develop into a useful possession guy if his skating doesn't hold him back significantly.

- Kyle Okposo: Picked 7th overall in 2007, the 25 year old Okposo has established himself as an NHLer at this point, although he has never been able to really live up to the high expectations his draft position engendered. He faced the toughest competition on the Islanders this year on Frans Nielsen's wing and managed to keep his head above water, so he's probably a useful guy, but I doubt he'll score more than the 24-goal, 45-point peak he managed in 2011-12.

- Josh Bailey: Another top-10 pick (9th overall in 2008) who has yet to score at a high level in the NHL for the Islanders, there actually isn't much to recommend Bailey. He was also rushed to the show by NY and has settled into a bland, 30-point, middle rotation forward. He's only 23 years old so maybe he'll take another step forward soon, but there hasn't been any indication in his performance that he's suddenly going to figure things out and become a true top-6 player down the road.

Conclusion

The Islanders have a few pieces that may be of interest to Calgary, especially Strome, Niederreiter, Nelson and the 15th overall pick. It's doubtful almost any combination of the above assets could financially jusitfy the Flames spending $24M to buy-out Dipietro, but if Feaster and Edwards are more interested in speeding up a rebuild than they are in making sure the debits and credits match-up, there could be a deal to be done.

Well, seeing the Islanders have taken that next step & made the playoffs, it should be easier to sell them as a destination. Now $24mill plus Nino & that 15th overall pick as sweetners, may not be worth the 1.5mill over the next 16 years to Edwards. So, how could Feaster mitigate the hit for Edwards. Well its simple mathematics, add/subtract. We eat $24 mill, lets get rid of some $$$ the NYI may find useful. So, we throw in Cammi. Cammi is not about to be a difference maker here next year & probably gone. He could be useful to the Islanders top 6 for 1 year. Suddenly, that hit is only 18 million over 16 years. Maybe Tanguay who has a softer cap hit at 3.5mill, would like to go to a playoff team & could fit nicely in the top 6 over there. Theres 10.5mill Edwards doesn't have to deal with, so the hit 13.5 mill over 16 years. How about Cory Sarich, 1 year left for 2.0mill, wont hurt Calgary to punt that contract. So Sarich, either Tanguay or Cammi & maybe Joey Macstarter(dump another mill) for Dipietro, Nino & the 15th overall, boom, suddenly the contract doesn't look so toxic. Just need to get creative & think out of the box. This is definitely a deal that could speed up our rebuild & get us back to the playoffs sooner.

Don't really care what Edwards does with his money in this regard, it's his choice. However my only curiosity in this matter is, would the NHL stop it? Or the NHLPA for that matter. A team using it's assets to simply make a very expensive problem go away. Would the deal even RESEMBLE a hockey deal, or will they do away with all the smoke and mirrors and the Islanders trade Nino+1st+Dipietro to Calgary for like Greg Nemisz?

Also it would be 24 Million, but I think that gets spread out of double the length of the contract, no? So they would be paying 1.5 million a year for the next 16 years, which is more doable, but damn that would suck for 16 years.

I have the same general feeling about the likelihood of DiPietro as I do about Lecavalier, it just doesn't seem all that likely to happen. As you rightly pointed out, buying out either guy likely won't even come close to paying for itself and Edwards just doesn't strike me as a guy who lights his money on fire.

That being said, this is the type of deal that any team making a profit should look at doing. Acquiring assets in the capped NHL is difficult. Between the salary cap and the existence of a draft you cant really buy assets and therefore it is very difficult, unlike say in european soccer, for richer teams to really use their financial muscle effectively. Rich terms can really only exercise their competitive advantage is resources when it comes to off the ice stuff: facilities, coaching, management, scouting, ect. In these areas rich teams dont seem to have figured out how to exercise an advantage and therefore there really doesn't seem to be much correlation between financial resources and winning in today's NHL.

Knowing both of these things: that assets are hard to acquire and that it seems difficult for rich teams to use a competitive advantage when it comes to off the ice resources, the chance to, in essence, buy assets should be leaped upon by any team. Trading for a player and assets and buying him out could be one of the few ways rich teams can actually use their advantage in resources effectively. For a team like the Leafs, where money is no object, this type of move should be a complete no brainer.

In the Flames case, a team with a healthy market but not obscene amounts of money, it all comes down to the rich owners willingness to spend money to get assets. It's easy for us to tell Edwards how to spend his money but I would really hope that he seriously considers the move.

If I was the Flames brain trust I'd feel comfortable going to Edwards with a package that included DiPietro, Nino/Strome and their 1st.

Is there any chance Dipietro could serve some kind of quasi-useful role on the Flames? Could he be a backup at a higher level than MacDonald in our potential 3 goalie trifecta? If he could be a useful player for a number of years (working under the assumption that he would probably retire after a few more injury-ridden seasons) then paying 4.5 million a year for a functional if fragile piece and receiving a collection of picks and prospects in return seems like it could be an awfully good deal.

Really difficult to figure out what would be worth a buyout of that magnititude. I'd say you can't even use playoff game revenue given that making the playoffs is a team result and you'd have to determine that what you received from the NYI was directly accountable for 24 of them.

If someone could be so kind as to establish a hockey version of WAR (I guess it would be PAR in the NHL given that points and not the win are the basic unit of team measurement in hockey unlike baseball) then we could more easily establish what it would take to make that transaction worthwhile. My guess would be a lot... like Strome + Reinhart + Nino + 15th Overall.

Also, if I had to bet money on which goalie the Flames trade for, I'd go for Ryan Miller. He can help their mandate of making the playoffs, and he's a proven commodity that they can waste more 2nd rounders on.

I would be more on board with trading for Lecavalier than DiPietro. At least Lecavalier plays a position at which the Flames are weak.

You wouldn't be trading for them to keep... you'd be trading for them to buy them out while the window is open for them to count for nothing against the cap. If you keep them you're on the hook for every dollar they're owed and if you later decide to buy them out anyways the price get's put on the Cap.

True in the short term, but he'll probably devolve into a gross liability by the time the Flames are ready to truly compete again, which could significantly hamper their budget and player retention issues.

I agree with KevinR (see above). If we can move a contract that doesn't really add much to our team over the next few years (cough Tangs cough), it will mitigate a reasonable (although small) amount of the cost to Edwards.

I am also of the mind that Edwards wouldn't go for this (or Lecavalier) - he seems like a shrewd fellow. I would like to know if it is being considered at all though; a fourth 1st would be amazingly useful.

'The common rule of thumb for post-season revenue is every home game is worth about $1M. So if acquiring Dipietro = getting kids who ensure 24 or more playoff dates, then it might be worth Calgary's time financially.'

You mention inflation, I think it will play a really big role in this. This is spread out over 16 years with a cost of $1.5M per year. The buyout value stays the same, but in 16 years from now, heck, even 10 years from now, the revenue per game value will be likely be elevated considerably from $1M. Revenue over the past years has risen steadily, not? Would it be reasonable to assume that over the 16 years the revenue averages out to $1.5M per home playoff game? Or is that stretching it? If that was reasonable then we are only talking about one extra game per season.

Getting a few decent players might tip the scales enough to accomplish that over 16 years. I guess the thing is, no player will be with us for that long, unless we can get another Iginla.

That's an interesting notion Kevin. If the Flames could get rid of Cammalleri or Tanguay in the deal then that would at least partially mitigate the financial hit.

Tanguay would be the best in terms of impact: the Flames owe him $10.5 million over the next 3 years, or a buy-out of $7M.

Now, that still leaves the Dipietro buy out a big pill to swallow, but admittedly not quite as big. Of course, the big if there is would Alex accept a trade to NYI (I honestly doubt it)?

There is no doubt Feaster would really have to sell him on the benefits of the extra assets we are getting in that deal & how that equates in recapturing some of those $$$. But that's his job. He may have a deal where he can get the 2nd oval out of Florida for our 6th & 15th picks & parlay that into a franchise player that will equate into nothing but $$$$.

As for Cammi & Tanguay, I think it has already been mentioned that these 2 are exactly enamoured about a rebuild at this stage of their careers. Islanders were a playoff team & have some pretty decent young players. May not be as tough as a sell as we might think after last years blowup. Maybe NYI take both these players & I still think that would worth the Strome/Nino & the 15th overall + the buyout. I don't think Tanguay or Cammi get us sweet all in trade value at this draft. Cammi may have more value at next years TDL, maybe not.

Tanguay requires a replacement though... and not just a warm body replacement an actual contribution to the line-up replacement. As much maligned as he is around these parts lately he's not replacement level talent.

Tanguay requires a replacement though... and not just a warm body replacement an actual contribution to the line-up replacement. As much maligned as he is around these parts lately he's not replacement level talent.

Your right. It would take a while for any of these prospects or picks to contribute at the level that he does, so the math is not quite as simple as that.

Could you not make the argument to Edwards that the acquisition of Nino/Strome/pick at 15 will not only speed up a rebuild, but put us in a position to be competitive for a while? He wouldn't make his 24 mil back right away, but what about the possibility of 5+ years of playoff hockey?

If I am an owner that can get 3 young prospects in return for $1.5M a year than I do it without a doubt. If you believe that the 1st round pick and two prospects are all going to be in your top 9 next year and for the next six years as opposed to spending another three years worth of first round picks to gather those assets than you have to make the deal.

Look at it this way. Give Edwards a choice between two options.

First is the Islanders deal which could net them Neiddereiter, Reinhart, and Domi/Lazar/Gauthier/Mantha. Those three players will be in the Flames line up next year. The cost to acquire those players is $24M.

Second, we go out and we try to sign Stephen Weiss to a five year $5M dollar deal that will cost him $25M.

Which option makes the most sense for the Flames going forward?

In the short term you tell Feaster that he has to stay at least $3M under the salary cap for the next eight years in order to help offset the potential cost. Expecting that the team will be trying to win and will most likely be a cap team going forward.

First of all... lets take DPs tarnished name out of the equation. essentially we would be buying players for 24 million... if this could be a straight up possibility in the league we would see GMs like philly and NYR doing this. we should jump at this opportunit and if we can getReinhart +NIderreiter+ another asset. We could throw in gio to replace streit or the 28th overall pick to give the islanders something in return. we need to be somewhat reasonable with our trade demands as i imagine the bigger markets like philly nyr mont etc would be in on this. we would likely have to take back less to win the deal but we wouldnt need to give up anything of real value l... just cash for players.

i like this idea if they could ge the first, if you have four firsts, then trade the 6th to buffalo and get their two firsts, boom got 5 first rounders that should jumpstart the rebuild. i really like the idea of trading our bad contracts to make the dp contract not seem so bad. seems like nhl 13 here but could be done.

Tanguay requires a replacement though... and not just a warm body replacement an actual contribution to the line-up replacement. As much maligned as he is around these parts lately he's not replacement level talent.

Seriously? We are worried about replacing Tanguay? I was at the games near the end & after the Iggy trade he mailed it in. He just pouted. Personally, name me how many games last year he was a difference maker & we thought, geez, if we didn't have Tangs in the lineup we would have been hooped in that one? I would rather pay a kid $900K on the last year of an ELC than pay 3.5mill for what he brought to the team. At this stage, we are rebuilding, we have no recognized elite players, only potentials in the likes of Brodie & Sven. You have to draft these guys & therefore, Tanguay, Cammy just don't fit in the longterm of this team. & you even have to consider Wideman/Gio Or GlenX as a way to increase your chances at drafting an elite future player. If Philly thinks Streit is the answer without having to part on one of their future potentially elite young centres, then we need to target Carolina with their 5th overall.

So you give Cammi or Tanguay & maybe Sarich +$$$ to get that 15th & Nino. You turn around & you offer Carolina Gio or Wideman, Nino & maybe our 22nd for their 5th overall. I call that going all in but to pick 5th & 6th in this draft gives you that potential for 2 more elite players. Just promise Edwards you wont spend stupidly on any UFA's & run 5 or 10 mill under the cap for the next 2 years & there's his money back. Feaster needs to have a plan & sell this to Edwards. I could do it, but I cant seem to get him to call me back :)

If I am an owner that can get 3 young prospects in return for $1.5M a year than I do it without a doubt. If you believe that the 1st round pick and two prospects are all going to be in your top 9 next year and for the next six years as opposed to spending another three years worth of first round picks to gather those assets than you have to make the deal.

Look at it this way. Give Edwards a choice between two options.

First is the Islanders deal which could net them Neiddereiter, Reinhart, and Domi/Lazar/Gauthier/Mantha. Those three players will be in the Flames line up next year. The cost to acquire those players is $24M.

Second, we go out and we try to sign Stephen Weiss to a five year $5M dollar deal that will cost him $25M.

Which option makes the most sense for the Flames going forward?

In the short term you tell Feaster that he has to stay at least $3M under the salary cap for the next eight years in order to help offset the potential cost. Expecting that the team will be trying to win and will most likely be a cap team going forward.

This is line of thinking that the Flames (Edwards) need to use when evaluating whether a RDP buyout is worth it or not. If I was Feaster I would also expand the argument into including the fact that we no longer have Iggy, JBO, or Kipper on the team either which has already saved Edwards $18million for next year.

Yes exactly, I think the idea of a self imposed internal salary cap of $5-$10 million under the real cap is the best way to recoup any buyout cash for Edwards. And since we're a rebuilding team anyways it shouldn't be a problem, it also keeps us from grossly over-paying any UFA's for the next couple of seasons. Sounds like a win-win-win to me.

Inflation has been mentioned a few times with regards to how much revenue the team will generate down the road/in the playoffs etc. Keep in mind that inflation also affects how much Edwards will be paying for Dipietro down the road.

If he is paying $1.5 million/year for 16 years, 16 years from now he will not be paying even close to the equivalent of 1.5M in today's dollars. Based on current inflation estimates, 10 years from now $1.5M dollars will only be worth $1.1 million in today's dollars. That will continue to decrease year over year.

So Edwards will not be paying the full $24 million as it is worth today. Since it is spread out over such a long period of time, it will actually be much less than that (I assume that is why owners agreed that buy-outs could be paid out over twice the number of years remaining on contracts). If he is earning more money 10 years from now as a result of this deal, and he is paying less than $1.5M a year in today's dollars, he may see it as a worthwhile transaction.

@shutout - I really like the Weiss comparison as well. Blow the bank on a UFA or invest in 3 extra solid young prospects. Interesting way of looking at it.

I think calling them extra solid young prospects is really pushing it. Really, I wouldn't trade 24M dollars for Nino, Reinhart, and a middling first round pick... Niederreiter has falling prospect stock for a reason, Reinhart isn't a surefire bluechip top pairing guy, and the 15th overall could be nothing... I don't think those guys are a good enough bet to collectively return 24M worth of surplus value. They'd have to throw Strome on to that pile before I'd do it.

Does this 24M count go towards the cap or is just to pay Dipi? If none counts towards the cap why would anyone be against a deal?(other then Edwards)

Compliance buyouts don't count towards the cap for this year and next season. Which is why the flames have the opportunity to take advantage of Edwards deep pockets and acquire some good talent without sacrificing our few stars ( I use stars loosely)

Yes exactly, I think the idea of a self imposed internal salary cap of $5-$10 million under the real cap is the best way to recoup any buyout cash for Edwards. And since we're a rebuilding team anyways it shouldn't be a problem, it also keeps us from grossly over-paying any UFA's for the next couple of seasons. Sounds like a win-win-win to me.

That's a good point. It's almost expected that they should spend the cap limit, but who says they have to? Not all teams do. If you want to save $1.5M per year, just don't spend it!

Apologies... when i say the 24 Mill is nothing of value... i mean to say that it is nothing of value as it relates to the team in terms of draft picks or players. Assuming that this cash would be used in this deal as an investment in the players we would acquire with no ecfect on the scouting budget etc... and assuming that the people who are interested in purchasing sports teams get involved in these businesses because of a passion for the sport and intend to do what it takes to win championships. As a purely business investment pro sports ifor many reasons is not a wise investment.

I think calling them extra solid young prospects is really pushing it. Really, I wouldn't trade 24M dollars for Nino, Reinhart, and a middling first round pick... Niederreiter has falling prospect stock for a reason, Reinhart isn't a surefire bluechip top pairing guy, and the 15th overall could be nothing... I don't think those guys are a good enough bet to collectively return 24M worth of surplus value. They'd have to throw Strome on to that pile before I'd do it.

To be fair, I missed the comma. "extra, solid," not "extra solid." My bad. Still unsure on what I'd accept as the exact package, but I like the philosophy.

On Reinhart: I am completely underwhelmed by him as a prospect, at least in terms of his chances of being anything more than middle rotation defender.

That's interesting. A big, mobile defenseman who was good enough to play on the World Junior team written off at 19? he had a bit of a rough year this year at times but I wouldn't say he is a bust just yet.