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Monday, February 29, 2016

Israel Requests US Bunker-Busting Bombs with Increased Power.

On Monday, Joe Biden will land at Ben Gurion Airport, for his last visit as
Vice President of the United States. Ostensibly, this is one of the more
boring visits: current Democratic administration is in his last year, and
Biden himself had decided not to run for the Democratic presidential
nomination, as many vice presidents have done before him.

Still, the visit arouses huge interest, especially in the Israeli defense
establishment. The reason: the discussions with the United States regarding
a new framework agreement for defense aid entered the final straight, and
Biden might bring about some news on the matter, or at least a hint.

Anyway,
shortly after Biden's visit, the defense minister will visit Washington,
after which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will also visit the United
States. Therefore, the aid agreement is expected to be signed by the end of
March, at the latest. Israel is counting on the American administration to
be generous towards Israel's defense needs at this time, in order to win the
support of the Jewish vote (and mostly the Jewish donors) prior to the
presidential elections.

Aid or "Compensation"?

To understand how the coming month will be crucial in terms of the Israeli
defense ministry, we need to understand the context: the US elections will
be held in November 2016, whereas the previous defense aid agreement between
Israel and the United States will expire in 2017. The 10-years-long
agreement set the extent of the defense aid back in 2007. According to the
soon to be expired agreement, Israel received each year $ 3.1 billion. This
is a huge sum, which constitutes more than 20 percent of Israel's defense
budget. Under the terms of the aid, the Ministry of Defense has received
permission to convert half a billion dollars each year into NIS, to use the
money for local acquisitions. The remainder is used as the primary budget
source, to finance IDF equipment of central combat platforms such as fighter
jets and helicopters.

Beyond the generous annual aid, Israel receives additional aid from the
United States for special projects. For example, the US has funded the
equipping of seven of the nine Iron Dome batteries. In addition, the US DoD
had collaborated with the Israeli defense establishments in the development
and funding of other major missile defense projects - "Arrow 3" and "David's
Sling".

It was recently reported that the Americans will also deliver funds for
projects that will assist the fight against underground tunnels built by
Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Furthermore, the IDF and the US military has an
agreement in which Israel could use American military equipment, kept in
storages in Israel, in emergencies. To top that, the US Army also operates
an innovative and classified radar system in the Har-keren mountaintop in
the Negev region. Israelis are not allowed to see it firsthand (the closed
US area on Israeli soil generates considerable resentment in the defense
establishments).

Harming the Israeli national honor or not, the new aid agreement on the
agenda is also considered as compensation for the nuclear deal with Iran in
summer 2015. The truth is that the compensation is not for the nuclear deal,
but for the massive arms sales of American companies in the Persian Gulf.

Not many are aware, but the entire region is in an intense arms race, as
Iran plans to spend no less than $ 20 billion of its funds, which were
frozen during the economic sanctions, in order to finance the procurement of
advanced weapons systems, primarily from Russia. Iran's neighboring
countries fear its massive procurement and its transformation to a nuclear
power, sooner or later (no leader in the Persian Gulf believes that the
agreement will prevent Iran from attaining a nuclear bomb). For this reason,
they also acquire weapons, mainly from France and the United States
(including many squadrons of modern fighter aircraft, made by the two
countries).

This massive equipping is a great celebration for the US defense companies,
but these weapons may one day be directed against Israel. Because the United
States is committed to maintaining Israel's qualitative edge (under a law
passed years ago in Congress) - Israel is expected to receive increased aid,
to allegedly ensure this advantage.

Aid Talks

Sources very involved in the defense and diplomatic relations between Israel
and the United States, are confident that Israel had already missed an
excellent opportunity to boost the "compensation". It was near the time the
agreement with Iran was signed. "Before signing the agreement, the American
government was willing to give Israel almost everything it had wanted, to
"silence" the criticism of the agreement. But because the Prime Minister has
decided to fight Obama, the Americans have taught him a lesson and did not
promise any compensation," said a source close the subject.

Now, as mentioned, Israel hopes that the Democrats' electoral considerations
prevail over the US administration's hostility towards the current Israeli
government. But what Israel really wants and what would be the extent of the
new aid? Talks over the subject between Israeli and American teams began
last fall, as part of negotiations between the Israeli Defense Ministry and
the Pentagon. During those conversations, Head of the IDF Planning
Directorate, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin, presented the IDF's needs to his US
colleagues.

During the past few weeks, the aid negotiations was intensified and the
reins were passed to PM Netanyahu's hands, who deals with the issue closely.
The person who coordinates for the subject is the acting Head of the
National Security Council, Ya'akov Nagel, who works regularly with the head
of the US National Security Council, Dr. Susan Rice. Originally, Nagel
started in the Administration for the Development of Weapons and
Technological Infrastructure (MAFAT) in IMOD, and is currently a candidate
for Heading MAFAT. Other major candidates mentioned, were Brig. Gen. (Res.)
Dr. Danny Gold, who is considered as the father of "Iron Dome"; Maj. Gen.
(Res.) Ami Shafran; and Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Eytan Eshel and Brig. Gen. (Res.)
Shmuel Yachin. The four of them served as Heads of the IDF's R&D department.

Meanwhile, a new Head of the National Security Council was appointed this
week, instead of Yossi Cohen, who has been appointed as Head of Mossad in
early January: Brig. Gen. (Ret.) Avriel Bar-Yosef, originally a Navy
officer, received the prestigious appointment.

Back to the US aid: the two main questions on the agenda are concerning the
sum of the annual aid, in the decade between 2017 and 2027, and the quality
of weapons that Israel will receive. Israel expects a significant boost in
the annual aid, as part of "compensation" for the nuclear deal. Sums of even
4 and 5 billion dollars were heard. The second question, which depends on
the actual sum of the defense aid, is what weapons systems Israel could
purchase with that money.

Israel is already planning on at least two squadrons of the future F-35
fighter (the first aircraft of this model will land on Israeli soil this
December), but in the Air Force they fantasize about no less than four
squadrons by the end of the next decade. In addition, they desire an
additional F-15 squadron, a modern array of transport helicopters and
refueling aircraft, as well as an aircraft which is half helicopter and half
fighter, the V-22.

In addition to aircraft, Israel-US talks involve advanced air-to-ground
missiles and much-needed weapons, should it turn out that Iran has been
fooling the world and continues to strive for a nuclear bomb. These weapons
include, mainly, bunker-busting bombs, more advanced and heavier than the
"Lite" version of bunker-busting bombs that the air force received five
years ago.

Some of the systems discussed between Israel and the United States are
highly classified. In many cases, it is expected that the Americans would
agree to include such systems in the weapons arsenal supplied to Israel,
only if they know that Israeli defense industries are already developing
similar systems in parallel.

Not all interests of Israel and the US are overlapping, but from Israel's
perspective, the aid agreement shall determine Israel's military power for
many decades. Thus, this month will bring about crucial decisions, and all
negotiation tricks will come into play, by both sides.

In Memory Of Alexander Munch (1948 - 2012).

Israeli Six-Day War Vet.

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Shariah: The Threat to America

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