PETER LAW has beaten odds of a thousand to one to become the bookies' favourite to seize the safest seat in Wales from Labour in what threatens to be the shock result of election night.

Private polling by the Labour Party also puts the independent challenger ahead in Blaenau Gwent in what should be a shoo-in for Labour's Maggie Jones.

Popular politicians like David Blunkett have been drafted into the stronghold constituency, while veteran socialist Tony Benn visited yesterday with Welsh Secretary Peter Hain, returning for his second visit in three days, while trade union activists are being shipped in from across South Wales to deliver Labour leaflets door to door.

But he denied party candidates in Labour's ultra-marginals, like Cardiff Central and Monmouth, had effectively been abandoned to their fate while Labour tried to shore up support in Britain's fifth safest seat.

Before Mr Law announced he would stand, punters would have struggled to get odds better than 1 to 1,000 for a Labour win in Blaenau Gwent, but Jack Brown's bookmakers now make Mr Law the 8 to 11 favourite.

Karl Williams of Jack Brown's said, "This sort of shift is unheard of but Peter has been kind to the people of Blaenau Gwent for years and now they are going to be kind to Peter. We do believe he will win the constituency."

Mr Law's decision to quit Labour has already cost the party its working majority in the National Assembly and left it looking rattled and fighting a rearguard action in Blaenau Gwent.

He said, "This could all have been avoided - they were warned this would happen. I have said from the beginning the people of Blaenau Gwent have an inherent sense of fair play and they know a stitch-up when they see one.

"People are rising up to give them a message because they have had enough of this insincerity.

"They know I have always played straight with them, whenever I meet someone with a problem I write it down and follow it up and people have seen over many years how involved I am.

"I have always been honest with the people I represent. I care about them deeply and that is what these people in the Labour Party just don't understand."

The outgoing Labour MP Llew Smith, whose decision to retire sparked the bitter succession battle, said he was convinced Mr Law would win the seat.

He said, "Labour has got people pouring into this seat and have obviously given up on some other constituencies. I don't know what Huw Edwards or Jon Owen Jones feel about it all."

Labour candidate Mr Edwards is fighting to prevent Wales' most marginal seat from falling to Tory candidate David Davies while Mr Jones faces the prospect of defeat to the Liberal Democrats.

Jack Brown's has closed the book on the two seats but both candidates remained in defiant mood yesterday.

Mr Jones said, "I still feel that the battle is not over in Cardiff Central. If we can get our vote out, we will hold the seat. Obviously, we would welcome all the support from safer seats that we can get."

Mr Edwards said it was still a "two-horse race" in Monmouth.

"My priority is to beat the Tories," he added. "I feel sorry if the people of Blaenau Gwent are trying to beat the Labour Party."

Mr Hain dismissed suggestions Labour had walked away from its two most marginal seats to target resources on the stronghold.

But he acknowledged union activists were being shipped in for leaflet drops to get the party vote out on Thursday night.

"There is a very difficult battle here but I think opinion has been moving towards us," he said.

"No individual is bigger than the party, no matter how high their standing, and the party's democratic wishes need to be respected. It has been tough but change is tough and it has certainly not been easy in Blaenau Gwent."

While Labour is cruising to a comfortable overall majority on May 5, its performance in Wales could be more patchy with the latest odds suggesting up to a fifth of its current 34 seats could fall.

Hain warns progressives 'not to make same mistake' as US Democrats in 2000

DISILLUSIONED Labour voters should not repeat the "mistakes" made in 2000 by US Democrats who voted for Ralph Nader and helped elect President George Bush, Peter Hain warned yesterday.

Speaking at a rally in Blaenau Gwent - where Labour face a challenge from independent ex-Labour AM Peter Law - Mr Hain said the "progressive vote" in the 2000 American election had been split, allowing Mr Bush to win.

The Welsh Secretary said it would be "ironic" if Labour voters angry over Iraq followed the same path by voting for the Liberal Democrats or other parties.

He said, "It would be a supreme irony if progressive voters who are angry over Iraq made the same mistake as progressives in America made in 2000 and which brought George W Bush to power in the first place.

"By voting for a third party in their General Election, in that case Ralph Nader, they split the progressive vote and ensured the return of a conservative government.

"The truth is that here, as in America, the choice is not between the Labour Government, for all its imperfections, and the progressive government of your dreams, but between the Labour Government and the right-wing government of your nightmares.

"All it will take for Howard to win is Labour voters believing that Labour cannot lose.

"That is exactly what some Democrats thought in 2000.

"They dismissed him as an unelectable right-wing extremist, so enough switched to Nader to feel better about themselves, inadvertently ushering in the Bush era."