No representative of NCO was present. A detailed list
of all upcoming upgrades and implementations can be found here.

2. NOTES
FROM EMC

2a. Global Climate and Weather Modeling Branch

Ken Campana reported on the following upcoming global
branch implementations:

A new GFS upgrade will be discussed by the EMC
implementation board on 10 January with code to be delivered to NCO shortly
thereafter. This upgrade will involve changes to the GSI, a new quality control
scheme, upgrades to the shortwave and longwave radiation physics and the
enthalpy replacing virtual temperature as the thermodynamic state variable (due
to the model extending beyond the mesosphere). Implementation is tentatively
scheduled for 1 April.

This upgrade may impact downstream users of the
native GFS “sigma” data, and these users may need to modify their software
again. These users will be notified and an updated GFS "users’
manual" will be made available.

Another minor GFS upgrade is planned for the fall,
largely to allow for the assimilation of new data types.

2b. Mesoscale Modeling Branch

Geoff DiMego reported on several issues related to
MMB:

The change to the enthalpy formulation in the GFS
will impact the model output and has the potential to impact downstream users
of the GFS data, including the NAM.

A NAM
bundle submitted in late November includes:

An increase in the domain size by 18% (in the north, west, and east
directions), this will have downstream impacts for users of the native NAM grid
output (e.g., SREF, Hi-Res Window, RUC, etc.)

An upgrade in the i,j,k WRF-NMM code that will allow the model to
run more efficiently and offset most of the increase in run time due to
the expanded domain

Introduction of gravity-wave drag and mountain blocking

An upgrade to the NOAH LSM to match the NCAR version

An upgrade of the GSI to the August 2007 version, however the
strong balance constraint will not be included

Geoff also reported that although in many cases the
performance of the NAM improves when the model is re-run with GFS initial
conditions, is it not feasible to initialize the NAM with those data
operationally due to time constraints (as too much satellite data arrives too
late for the NAM to wait for the GFS analysis) and the domain configurations.

However, it is feasible to use an older global model state in the NDAS
cycle.This partial cycling is being
tested in which atmospheric fields at the beginning of the assimilation period
12 hours before the model cycle time will use a 6-hour global model forecast
from the GDAS valid 12 hours prior to the cycle time instead of a 3-h WRF-NMM
forecast valid 12 hours prior to the cycle time from the last NDAS cycle.For land surface states, full cycling will
continue to be used, due to problems initializing the NAM LSM from GFS
data.The assimilation will still follow
the usual NDAS procedure of running the NAM-GSI to assimilate data at 12, 9, 6,
3, and 0 hours before the cycle time and running the NAM for the intervening 3-hour
segments to supply the first guess.This
will test whether using the global model atmospheric conditions for the first
guess in the t-12 hour analysis yields the benefits seen from running the NAM
off GFS initial conditions while providing 12-hours of spin-up for mesoscale
features to adjust to the NAM resolution and terrain.

The implementation of NAM downscaled grids has been
delayed 30 days by NCO. These grids are created using SmartInit and will have
the following resolution: CONUS: 5 km, Alaska:
6 km, Hawaii:
2.5 km

2c. Global Ensemble Prediction System

None.

2d. ShortRange Ensemble Forecast
System

A SREF upgrade scheduled for the 2nd
Quarter of FY08 will include additional bias corrected output, but this output
will not be delivered to the field immediately.

2e. Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch

Bandwidth issues are causing the delay of up to 20
minutes in the delivery of the high resolution wave model output.

The Great Lakes wave
model code has been delivered to NCO with a scheduled implementation for
February 2008. This upgrade will use new software and provide additional output
(e.g., wind wave and swell) but will not include major changes to the model
itself.A parallel test running the
model using NDFD winds is also planned.

Work is underway to sync the NCEP wave ensemble
forecast system with that of FNMOC.

Issues with the location of the Gulf
Stream continue with HYCOM. This problem may be improved with
changes to the data assimilation, but this will require a shorter model time
step, possibly delaying the receipt of the model output. However, this might
not be a problem since RTOFS Atlantic data need to be available later for
coupling with HWRF.

Work to couple HWRF with HYCOM instead of the POM
will continue, but this will not be operational for the start of the 2008
hurricane season. It is hoped that the HWRF coupled with HYCOM will be
available in parallel for the hurricane season.

3. FEEDBACK
FROM OPERATIONAL CENTERS/REGIONS

WFO Reno

Stephen Jascourt passed along a question from the
Reno WFO about a disparity in elevation between GFS forecast soundings from the
40-km AWIPS 212 grid and soundings from BUFR files. The entire sounding appears
shifted to lower elevation in the BUFR sounding than on the 212 grid. Stephen
will send an example of this problem to Ken Campana and Mark Iredell for further
investigation.

4. The next
Synergy Meeting will be held Monday, January 28 2008, at 12:00 pm EST in Room
209 at EMC, with remote conference capability.