Deloitte outlook is for strong economic growth

Published: 17th of July 2017
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Independent analysts Deloitte Access Economics have confirmed the Queensland economy is strong and growing despite revising their forecasts for the 2017-18 year.

Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment, Curtis Pitt, said the Deloitte Access Economics’ (DAE) Business Outlook for June 2017 released today forecast Queensland as having the nation’s strongest economic growth in 2017-18 at 3.1 per cent.

However, DAE pointed out that while the transition continued from the unprecedented $60 billion LNG construction boom, the hit from Tropical Cyclone Debbie, and falling housing construction, there was good news too including growth in retail spending which was “back to broadly matching national gains in recent months” which represented “a considerable improvement after an extended period of underperformance”.

Mr Pitt said DAE also reported:

jobs growth had bounced back to positive territory, having shown a solid recovery in recent months and the number of job vacancies had also been trending higher

tourism was benefiting from the lower Australian dollar, with international visitor numbers rising, and hotel occupancy rates edging higher

small business confidence had shown a sustained recovery since early 2015, and

export growth had been very strong over the past year, supported by the rise in commodity prices.

DAE also noted that population growth has picked up since late 2015, and is almost matching the national average -- a distinct improvement on recent times.

It said “crazy” house prices in Sydney were a factor in fueling Queensland’s population growth which in turned supported economic growth.

Mr Pitt said growth forecasts for 2016-17 in the latest DAE Business Outlook had been revised to 1.7 per cent from 1.9 per cent in the March quarter and for 2017-18 from 4.5 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

He said DAE’s forecasts for both 2016-17 and 2017-18 differed from those of Queensland Treasury.

“The different assumptions and forecasting methodology used by DAE mean their projected outcomes differ from those of Queensland Treasury for economic growth of 2¾ per cent ian both 2016-17 and 2017-18 as shown in the 2017-18 State Budget,” Mr Pitt said.

“However, the latest DAE report underlines the fact that our state economy is strong and growing.

“So while DAE’s forecasts for 2017-18 by comparison may be high for 2017-18, the key point is that they still put our growth ahead of assessments for NSW (2.9 per cent), equal to Victoria (3.1 per cent), and ahead of Australia as a whole (2.7 per cent).”

Mr Pitt said the DAE report said the worst of the downturn in investment in major engineering works was now over with the completion late last year of the last of the state’s LNG plants.

“It also says our population growth is picking up with forecast rises of 1.5 per cent and 1.4 per cent in 2016-17 and 2017-18 which will underpin our growth potential,” he said.

“The report cited the ‘crazy’ house prices in Sydney as an extra source of support for Queensland’s population growth as people realise it makes good sense to move here.

“That’s a key element in the Move up in the World campaign we are running interstate to lure more people and business owners to live and work in Queensland.”

Mr Pitt said Queensland Treasury had advised that the DAE forecasts did not fully account for available data and differed in several areas including projections for international trade, business investment, private consumption and the impacts on the Queensland economy from Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie.

Treasurer and Minister for Trade and Investment
The Honourable Curtis Pitt

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