Recession leads to drop in birthrates in Silicon Valley, throughout California

Paychecks, housing values and general optimism have all contracted in the state during the recession that began at the end of 2007, and now the tough times have ushered in another slowdown — at hospital delivery rooms.

California had 14,570 fewer births in 2008 than in the previous year, a 2.6 percent drop that surprised demographers with its size. It was the first annual decline in births since 2001, when the state was last mired in a recession. While the economy is one likely cause, the migration of young Latinas in their prime childbearing years out of California, and a slowdown of illegal immigration, are ongoing factors that could cut into the state's future population growth if they continue.

"In the kind of economy we have, it's possible that people are opting not to have children that they might otherwise have," said Melanie Martindale, senior demographer with the state Department of Finance.

But the 3.2 percent decline in births to Hispanic mothers from 2007 to 2008 — the largest one-year decline in at least two decades — "is very significant, and very, very large," said Martindale, who produces the state's annual population estimates for racial and ethnic groups. "That seems to be because a lot of working-age and childbearing-age Hispanics are moving out of state to take jobs elsewhere, coupled with the fact that the border crossings" into the U.S. from Mexico "have declined."

Fewer crossing to U.S.

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Births to people living in California — rather than foreign immigration — have driven the state's growth in recent years, and more than half the babies born in California are born to Hispanic mothers.

But Latinas gave birth to about 9,600 fewer children in 2008 than in the previous year, according to preliminary data from the California Department of Public Health. Martindale said we could be starting a more permanent slowdown in population growth.

New federal data show the number of people caught trying to cross from Mexico into California and other Southwestern states have plunged to their lowest levels since the early 1970s, Meanwhile, the Public Policy Institute of California reported last week that immigrants employed in construction, manufacturing and some service industries are less likely to choose to live in California than they were 20 years ago.

"We need another year or two of birth data to see whether this is somewhat of an anomaly," Martindale said, "or a shift in fertility behavior."

In the past, temporary troughs in births have coincided with economic slowdowns, but generational and social factors also can drive longer-term population change.

For example, the number of births in California dropped through the strong economy of the mid- to late 1990s, as the large baby boom generation aged out of its childbearing years. But during the national recession of the early 1980s, the number of births grew steadily in California.

Indeed, some of the biggest percentage declines in births last year were in California's most affluent counties, including Santa Clara, Marin, San Mateo and Contra Costa counties in the Bay Area. Meanwhile, many poorer counties, including Tulare, Lassen and Glenn, recorded increases in births.

In most cases, Martindale said, the 18 counties with increases in the number of births had smaller Hispanic populations.

Better birth control

In Santa Clara County, the birth slowdown has continued into 2009, with county birth totals for the first six months of the year on a pace about 6 percent behind 2008. Meanwhile, gynecologists and family-planning clinics throughout the South Bay say they have been doing more birth-control consultations since the fall, and women are asking for more reliable, more permanent methods of contraception.

Joy Alexiou, a spokeswoman at Santa Clara Valley Medical Center, which treats many recent immigrants, said doctors at the county hospital have noticed fewer births this year. VMC doctors, she said, have speculated that the recession may have discouraged some women from becoming pregnant or giving birth. In addition, doctors have heard from some patients about friends or relatives who are not coming to the U.S. because of stricter border enforcement.

"Less immigration, whether it's because of border control or the economy, will affect our birthrate," Alexiou said.

Doctors have also noticed what appears to be fewer pregnancies at clinics operated by the nonprofit Gardner Health Services, which serves lower-income communities in San Jose, according to Gardner CEO Reymundo Espinoza. Economic conditions are probably a factor, he said, but added that he doesn't know exactly why the numbers appear to be lower this year than in 2008.

California women in virtually every significant race, ethnic and age group — including Asians — had fewer births in 2008 than in the previous year.

There was one notable exception: a 3 percent increase in births to women over 40.

Still, those older pregnancies made up less than 4 percent of the state's total, and Martindale said an exodus of young adults could reshape California for decades.

"If we have a population from which the younger, reproductive members are leaving due to a loss of jobs, so we're left with a basically older population, it's harder to turn that around," she said, "even through the economy might improve."