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POLITICO 44

Office of Management and Budget Director Jack Lew insisted Thursday the administration isn’t making any backup plans to ready federal agencies for closure — and that doing so might give the false impression that the White House has resigned itself to a shutdown.

But laws, guidance memos and people who’ve been involved in prior government shutdowns suggest that the administration should be getting ready — and likely has been for months.

"I'm sure they are," said Walter Broadnax, who served during the last government shutdown in 1995 and 1996 as deputy secretary and chief operating officer at the Department of Health and Human Services. "It'd be heresy to not do that."

Aside from the political brinkmanship and blame game exchanges, countless practical questions with real world consequences come quickly on the heels of a failure by the White House and lawmakers to reach even a stopgap agreement on funding the government.

Do Social Security checks and tax rebates go out? What happens to air traffic controllers, toxic waste cleanups and food safety inspectors? Will park rangers lock the gates to Yellowstone National Park? Who feeds the animals used for scientific research?

Statute dictates that "essential" services must remain in place to protect human life and property. But there's plenty of gray area for President Barack Obama and his cadre of White House lawyers, number crunchers and political advisers to play around with as the administration looks for the advantage with its GOP counterparts.

During the Clinton administration, White House and other administration officials started preparing for the prospect of a shutdown four months before the first five-day standoff that finally occurred in November 1995, according to House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing records.

Two months before the 1995 shutdown, the Office of Management and Budget ordered agencies to submit plans with estimates of the time it would take to close their doors and also to designate their essential activities.

According to several veterans of past spending battles, White House Counsel Robert Bauer will be the critical arbitrator if the current standoff leads to a government shutdown. Lew and Attorney General Eric Holder also would be key players. But the internal jockeying will still be intense.

"From my experience, there's always a difference between what the law actually requires and the way some officials try to interpret it or characterize it," said a former George H.W. Bush administration official.

The 1995 and 1996 shutdowns lasted a combined 27 days and cost an estimated $1.4 billion. During that time, the State Department stopped processing visa and passport applications, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms delayed permits, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention nixed disease surveillance, the EPA halted cleanup at more than 600 toxic-waste cleanup sites, and the National Park Service shuttered 368 sites.

But President Bill Clinton found ways for other programs to keep going. The Social Security Administration, funded outside the discretionary spending process, made payments to retirees and Black Lung fund recipients, though the White House did initially furlough about 90 percent of its workers because they got paid through an incomplete appropriation bill. The Christmas tree on the Mall was deemed nonessential, but a public outcry prompted local electric utility PEPCO to turn the lights on for free. A private security firm helped control crowds.

"From the point of view of the administration, what you want is to make it as uncomfortable as possible so it will end," Alice Rivlin, the Clinton OMB director during the 1995 and ‘96 standoffs, told POLITICO. "But I think that air traffic controllers probably go over the line."

A federal government shut down is the only solution... and best. Starting with the Justice Department, which hasn't done its job during this entire administration anyway. The White House? The staff will have a few extra days to play basketball and go golfing. State Department? They didn't even come to work this past month. EPA? We could all use a break from all those tiresome regulations. Education? That's a joke anyway, shut them down, let the states handle their own education... like Wisconsin. So... with all that extra money saved right there, there's enough to keep open the defense department and keep the entitlement checks flowing to granny. We'd probably have some cash left over to pay for border troops.

John Boehner is not quite as arrogant and stupid as Newt Gingrich was in 95 and 96. Back then the GOP caucus had trouble reigning in the speaker, who everyone around him felt was overreaching and was leading them to ruin. Which is why Gingrich's career was destroyed forever not by Democrats, but by his own party. Boehner's problem is the opposite, he cannot control his caucus whatsoever and the mob will end up deciding the eventual outcome one way or another. This could be a disaster if their is no clear line of command for negotiation and resolution. We could see a protracted government shut down the likes this country has never seen. And maybe by the end of it Republicans will have made the American people miss government and what it does for them.

The same guys in these private or state run entities that currently do. Try asking who will feed the critters at eh National Zoo. Oh wait, thats Smithsonian. No you really have nowhere to fun with this.

But a McClatchy-Marist survey, released Monday, also indicates that most of the public doesn't think such compromise is likely. According to the poll, 72 percent of registered voters say congressional Republicans should work with their Democratic counterparts and the president to get things done, with one in four saying that Republicans should stand firm on their positions even if things don't get done.

The survey indicates a partisan divide on the issue, with 94 percent of Democrats saying the GOP should cooperate with Obama and congressional Democrats, with more seven in ten independent voters agreeing.But Republicans appear divided, with 49 percent saying the two sides should try to reach common ground and 47 percent saying that GOP leaders should stick to their beliefs even if it causes political gridlock.

According to the poll, just 28 percent think congressional Republicans will negotiate with the president and congressional Democrats, with 64 percent saying the GOP will stand firm instead of seeking compromise.

I see this as an excellent opportunity for the Federal Gov do what we in the "real working world" call zero-base budgeting! I would like to say that I am an Independent - have been for ages and ages. Therefore, I feel we have the Democratic House to thank for the lack of budget, overspending, give-away atmostphere that they have created during the last 6 years. Well done Pelosi & Company!

We have a President with a personal agenda to destroy this country and his henchmen(women) who carry out his deeds...congrats on a splended job of ruining our country.

On the positive side...let's begin by eliminating such useless organizations as the Dept of Justice, EPA, Dept of Education, Homeland Security (which has demonstrated that it is not interested in protecting the homeland) & let's not forget our beloved IRS.

Cancel his Highness trip to England...we can't afford it and the Brits hate him and the Mrs. Also, let's do away with AirForce 2, maybe even AF1 - yea - he can fly commercial...aka remember the China trip to the US? :)

I do believe there is an enormous Dept of Energy which has never lived up to their charter - out with them! The Post Office - privatize it, DMV - again privitize it - maybe the car dealerships can handle vehicle licensing and keep just a 10% DMV capability to handle "all other" transactions. Obamacare - completely rid this country of the financial burden and let's find something that works and is affordable. No more foreign aid, no supporting the "fine arts" loosers, also we need to eliminate the govt funded studies, ie .. effect of Drugs on Prostitutes in China, ..etc... There are so many opportunities for improvement by shutting down the government. I say let's do it!!!

I am getting to the point where I just don't care anymore. The Republicans obviously still hate Americans, think they can control everything and still claim they are for downsizing gov't and have gone completely mad, the Democrats are not able to stablize anything, and the Birthers and Tea Partiers are basically saying they call the shots and everyone has to do what they say.

All people do is scream at each other that they know better, there is very little job creation, and now the gov't is likely to shut down and bilk the deficit just a little more.

We have a President with a personal agenda to destroy this country and his henchmen(women) who carry out his deeds...congrats on a splended job of ruining our country.

How so? He's not shutting down the government, forcing an anti-abortion agenda, killing health care for all Americans, trying to declare himself an illegal with our own money, spitting in the face of the American Union Worker, while doing nothing to stimulate job growth and the economy.

If anything lady, I'd say the Pubs are doing an excellent job of killing America. Did you already forget that it was their final policies that helped lead to the detruction of our economy and then they literally thanked those financial institutions for doing so by giving them billions and billions of tax payer money to spend on office redecorating?

You're not Independent. You're a tro// in a coward's clothing. And you probably live in some basement and have no interaction whatso ever with the real world, unless it's on your $1000 month cable bill. You people are unfrigginbelievable. You bite the hand that feeds, while supporting corporate tyranny.

Regardless of Party, whichever side uses the Tantrum Option betrays the Consitution. This Union was made and created to function for the commonweal, not to be used as a partisan tool to substitute for a childish inability or unwillingness to govern. Were a private group of citizens to halt the workings of government, troops and police would have them in custody. We're the government be forced to shut down by a foreign power, tanks, bombers and the dogs of war would be unleashed.

What ths proves again is that this country is ruled by men who pride themselves on an inability to reason, come together, negotiate, reach consensus....in short to govern. What should be seen as an act of treason as defined by law is accepted as a clever ploy to fulfill a partisan advantage of questionable merit. This inability to govern falls on the shoulders of both parties, albeit only one party has ever resorted to such tawdry extremes. While people are beeing slaughtered on the streets of six countries for the right to self govern, we squander the right given to us by the blood of heroes who gave their live for a more perfect functioning Union.

If all of the degrees of higher education earned by our Congressmen were never to have existed, their ignorance and recalcitrance would have led us to this same place in history.

Shame to those who would use this as a threat and condemnation to those traitors would would make it real.

frankly, i feel nothing for the voters/protesters of WI... it's become my attitude towards any & all who again fall for the GOP bait & switch catapulted by their corporate owned MSM. i find "professional" leftist as ed shultz a joke. he must believe as many on the right that only democrats/progressives/liberals hold these union jobs... i bet the one question he hasn't asked the folk protesting in madison, how many of you voted for these tea partiers now after your right to collectively bargain and looking to balance this astro turf state budget crisis on their backs??? same thing in nj where i grew up, the governor gives generous tax cuts to the wealthy and looks to balance the books at the expense of unionized state workers. you wanted spending cuts in federal state budgets??? surely you didn't think the burden sharing was going to be equitable as brown is doing in cali? cuomo is just the latest democrat tea baggin poser to be soon smacked by reality.

I am a true independent and think that both parties are equally good and equally bad! I use logic, facts and common sense to make my decisions. I listen to both sides, then look at the facts and I mean facts. You have to use fact checking organizations to see what is actually the truth through analysis and listing of the facts. I get ridiculous emails with all kinds of hate spewed lies, mostly from the republicans and I get lie filled emails about 'how to avoid a heart attack'--there are a lot of crazies out there. The thing that is scary is the amount of names in the reply to that these propaganda emails get robotically forwarded to. I try and do my part by replying to all with the facts.. I never hear from them again..

Let's now look at some glaring facts:

Trickle Down theory from Reagan and supported by Republicans-Tax breaks for the wealthy--Does Not Work...the wealthy keep their money. Fact...a majority of the wealthy feel entitled and keep their money and give it to their kids who turn out to be the horrible trust fund babies you see in rehab...

Irag war...Bush and Cheney lied us into a war, add torture and you have war criminals that the repbulicans kept off the books .. the democrats are weasels for letting them get away with murder and not holding them accountable. No one seems to be held accountable for anything anymore. What a spoiled bunch of brats. Unfortunately I have to watch both sides play like children while this wonderful country that welcomed one and all and held so much promise is being run into the gutter but a group of pandering cowards..

You want service and you don't want to pay for it. Greed is killing this country and the liars are the loudest mouths out there. They all have one thing in common...they have a hell of a lot more money then you and their money is from you.

but I have faith that the pendulum swings both ways and maybe by the self serving shutting down of the government, Americans will wake up to the fact that we need a total restructuring of our economy. The manufacturing jobs are gone... we need to look to the future and retool our nation with a look to future need..

I can't help but conclude that we need a government shutdown, because we've reached the point that a significant minority of Americans no longer believe that the federal government provides many services on which everybody depends. Maybe people will reconsider after a few weeks of no social security checks, no medicare processing, no disability, reduced border protection, reduced health inspections.

What I find disappointing is that, rather than try to develop constructive policies to save our economy, many people are calling for elimination of funding for education and other social services, destruction of unions and elimination of government workers. I don't know whether destroying these things is good or not, but I haven't heard how doing so will somehow magically restore the United States to an export-led economy of the 1950s.

What seems more likely is that these cuts will come at tremendous social cost and risk a vicious cycle in which laid off government workers cannot purchase goods and services from private sector business, leading to small business failures, private sector layoffs, reduced tax base, additional cuts, etc.). I really wish that statements like "WE THE PEOPLE" or "STOP THE SPENDING" translated into sound policy. But they don't.

Heck the Repbulicans had better prep for what is coming. If more unions join in with WI and go on strike and other unions follow. You can count on fire fighter, garbage pick-up and many other school districts to go on strike threw out the country...AND then to have the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT to close down, those who caused it which is THE REPUBLICANS...they WILL BE IN DEEP CRAP WITH THE AMERICAN VOTER. So far the silent majority has been JUST THAT SILENT. There won't be a hole deep enough for the Republicans...They JUST DON'T GET IT. Some RECALLS MAY BE ORDER HERE...Fox news makes it sound like the unions are all about SEIU...think again, look around.

So... with all that extra money saved right there, there's enough to keep open the defense department and keep the entitlement checks flowing to granny. We'd probably have some cash left over to pay for border troops

Entitlement reform (cutting/changing eligibility for medicare, medicaid, and social security) is the ONLY way to restore fiscal sanity. But nobody wants to talk about that--though some in the Republican caucus may be changing that.

The Republican cuts are fair and just , and most of all right---- all this fool obama has to do is sign the bill the replublicans send him and things start down the road to recovery and here is the problem, this fool obama does not know what or how to do the right thing .The great fool obama can't lead and has a record of failed policy for once this fool should follow and don't even think about trying to lead he can't.

Maybe that's Obama's way of saying that he plans on signing anything to avoid a shut down.

Or, more likely, that he'll be as prepared for the shut down as he was for Egypt. Doesn't matter that he was told it's coming, he believes his mere presence will call the rivers bleeding money and all will be well.