On Monday night, the Dolphins allowed the Jets to gain 277 yards on the ground at 5.7 yards a pop. Despite the completely unbalanced nature of the Jets offense (49 rushes, 13 passes), the Dolphins could not stop the run game. It was the first time since 2011 when a team had such unbalance (more than 45 runs, fewer than 15 passes), but it was just the second time in 25 years that a team was so "run-heavy" and lost the game. Most of the time, teams go run heavy with the lead, but the Jets started run heavy and never stopped having success with it. The Jets defense still allowed the Dolphins back in the game late.

You can bet the Ravens, a team that is very balanced offensively, will look to exploit the ground game. Unlike the Jets though, they actually have enough of a passing attack to really make the Dolphins pay when they attempt to move defenders down to stop the run.

The Dolphins have played a litany of UNDER teams. Games against the Bills, Jags, Lions and Jets all went UNDER. But what happens when they play decent offenses? The Dolphins went OVER against the Pats, Chiefs, Packers and Broncos. The only game that made no sense to me was the game against the Chargers. I was on Miami and the OVER, but certainly did not expect a 37-0 win.

As far as the Ravens are concerned, take one look at their defensive trends from an EDSR* perspective. Since Week 8, the Ravens defense is dead last in completion percentage allowed (72 percent), third worst in yards/pass (8.0) and passer rating (111), allowing opponents to stay away from third-down situations. When they do force a third down, they allow opponents to convert on 51 percent of them, second worst in the league. That's a big reason why four of their last five games have sailed OVER. Games against the Bengals, Steelers, Saints, and Chargers went OVER by two TDs on average.

Due to injuries in the secondary, the Ravens have cost themselves a seed in the playoffs. Baltimore may not get back in unless they can pick up the pace and outscore their opponents, because that secondary is not getting better. Last week, they allowed an ailing, out-of-rhythm Philip Rivers to go 34-of-45 (76 percent) for 8.4 YPA and a 113 passer rating. The Ravens gave up five red zone trips and allowed SD to score TDs on three of them. More than those numbers, however, are the efficiency metrics. The Ravens allowed the Chargers to have the best EDSR of the week (31 first-downs, just 11 third-downs attempted). Yet, when they infrequently did go to third-down, the Chargers converted on nine of the 11 trips.

The Chargers were the league's 24th rated EDSR offense and were 21st on third-down offense. Now, the Ravens must go on the road and face the Dolphins, who rank fourth in EDSR offense and 15th in third-down offense.

We have two top seven red zone offenses and two top six EDSR offenses. By my metrics, when two top 10 EDSR offenses meet, and when both teams are better than average in red zone offense, the OVER is 12-2 (86 percent) the last two seasons. This, however, is ignoring the first month of the season when the metrics are less solidified. The logic is simple -- if you have two very efficient offenses who move the ball up the field and avoid third-downs often, they will get more frequent red zone trips (sure enough, Miami ranks No. 1 in frequent red zone trips, Baltimore ranks No. 4). And when these teams can convert in the red zone, naturally you will see OVERs. The Dolphins are converting 62 percent the last three weeks, and the Ravens are at 50 percent the last three weeks.

The Play: OVER 45

*Early Down Success Rate (EDSR) is a custom analytic created by Warren Sharp, which is both highly correlated to victory and as extremely predictive. It is an efficiency metric focused on a team's ability to produce on first and second down offensively, and to limit production defensively (forcing an opponent into third downs).