In matching John Diefenbaker's record of two minorities and a majority, Stephen Harper is in rare company. Among Conservatives, only Sir John A. Macdonald, Robert Borden and Brian Mulroney sit above Harper with more time in office and with consecutive majorities to their credit.

And more than any of his Tory predecessors Stephen Harper has put the Liberal party on its knees.

With all that he has accomplished and a majority government under his belt, we might think it's smooth sailing ahead for Harper. But despite the success, now comes the hard part: keeping the traditionally rancorous factions of the conservative movement united.

Harper knows his history and understands that without decisive leadership the self-destructive Tory tendencies could naturally re-appear; a hazard of any ideologically driven political movement. Former leaders such as Joe Clark, Bob Stanfield and even R.B. Bennett suffered because they did not have command and control of caucus.

"If Tories can't unite their party," Liberals used to gloat, "how can they be expected to run the country." Of course Harper can now say the same about Liberals.

Since becoming leader, Harper has kept the Tory bench in line by punishing caucus members who fell off message or had questionable loyalty. Just ask Garth Turner, Belinda Stronach and Helena Guergis.

In the face of criticism and pleas for leniency, Harper reminded his caucus and party the reward for discipline was majority government. As Sir John A. used to say: "Let there be no splits. . . . Let us not, like the hunters in the fable, quarrel about the skin before we kill the bear. It will take our united efforts to kill a bear."

Whenever social or fiscal conservatives would grumble, Harper had a built-in defence: without a majority, he could only go so far.

That excuse is now gone.

With a thin majority in Parliament to work with, it's unlikely that caucus unity will be much of a problem for Harper. Beyond his imposing intellect and fearless will, the Conservative caucus will be constrained by a platform with clear boundaries and a concrete agenda to follow.

The real risk to unity will come from the rank-and-file ideologically driven party activists. These are the same people who expressed their displeasure with the last Conservative majority under Mulroney by shifting their allegiance to the Reform Party.

Before the election, we heard a lament from Gerry Nichols — the former head of the National Citizen's Coalition — that Harper had thrown fiscal conservatives under a bus. During the election campaign, Charles McVety, a well-known evangelical leader, cautioned the prime minister that a refusal to reopen the abortion debate would de-motivate social conservatives.

Criticisms and warnings of this sort may actually have helped Harper win votes since it reassured Canadians that he was a mainstream leader who was not beholden to "extremist" groups. As he said in an interview with Peter Mansbridge this past January: "You know, we're political realists, Conservatives. We don't compare ourselves to some abstract ideology."

The first test of Conservative unity will come this June when the party meets in Ottawa for its national convention. While celebrations and festivities will abound, there will also be a battle for how far the delegates can move the government on some thorny and potentially divisive issues. At their last convention in Montreal in 2005, the party haggled over abortion. Harper had consistently maintained that the party should not adopt policy on issues of conscience. The delegates supported Harper's position, although by only a narrow margin: 55 per cent to 45 per cent. Had that vote gone the other way, the Conservatives would have carried a millstone around their necks that could well have caused their defeat in 2006.

Harper's ultimate success comes from drawing the wide range of often-contradictory conservative factions together into common cause. So far, he has maintained unity by showing respect to all conservative elements, giving some things, but not everything to each. To fiscal conservatives, he has lowered taxes, but has disappointed with high spending. To social conservatives, he has supported families with targeted tax measures, but will not move on abortion. To Red Tories, Harper has sustained funding for the CBC and health care, but has also advanced a law-and-order agenda that gives some discomfort.

Harper has built a big blue tent and has obviated the creation of new political entities on the right. But a majority government has the potential to upset that balance. As Preston Manning told me in 2004: "As long as the West can see the national Conservative party as one it has helped to shape as an adequate vehicle for some of its bigger ideas, it will be content with that. If it starts to see it not as that, then there are more resources and capability here to generate something else again."

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