Proving a point

In standing firm on the Dalai Lama's Tawang visit, India shows a new resolve to take on an aggressive China.

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Saurabh Shukla

November 12, 2009

ISSUE DATE: November 23, 2009

UPDATED: November 20, 2009 10:23 IST

Far away from New Delhi, a sleepy monastery in Tawang in India's north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh has become the epicentre of geopolitical seismic shocks in Asia as the two big giants, India and China, locked horns over the week-long visit of the Dalai Lama. China considers Arunachal Pradesh a part of southern Tibet while India maintains that it is its integral part. So the visit by the Dalai Lama was also aimed at proving a point that India can withstand Chinese pressure.

While diplomatic statements are usually couched in niceties, the tenor was aggressive. "The Indian side allowed the Dalai Lama to visit the disputed eastern section of the Sino-India border, regardless of China's grave concerns and China is strongly dissatisfied with this," says Qin Gang spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Office.

"We cannot tell the Dalai Lama to go or not to go to a certain place? but the Chinese shouldn't read into anything. We want cordial relations with China," External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna told India Today.

Diplomatic sources believe what has infuriated the Chinese is that India has ignored them. China had warned India of consequences when Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi met his Indian counterpart Krishna in Bangalore on the sidelines of a trilateral meeting on October 27. The Chinese were worried that the Dalai Lama's visit to Tawang would spark a reaction in Tibet. Last year, China faced its worst unrest in Tibet, and Beijing has since been on the backfoot on this issue.

In diplomacy, timing has a critical role to play. But why has India decided to take on China now? The decision to let the visit go forward was taken despite reservations within a section of the Indian establishment. South Block insiders say that when the matter was discussed by the prime minister and his national security team, including the key cabinet ministers of finance, defence, external affairs and home, last month, the overwhelming view was that backing down in the face of an aggressive Chinese stand on the boundary dispute would send out a wrong message and would also embolden Beijing.

While the visit may not have been by design, it certainly was not accidental and was intended to send a message that India cannot be bullied, especially when it concerns matters of sovereignty. India also wants to convey that the status of Arunachal Pradesh is non-negotiable.

Analysts believe that Beijing's assessment was that the Indian Government would buckle down under pressure, as even the pre-eminent global power, the US, clamped up under pressure when President Barack Obama didn't meet the Dalai Lama during his visit to the US last month. But the Chinese were proved wrong.

That New Delhi wanted to take the plunge was also evident as it ignored the advice from its 'strategic partner', the US, to reschedule the visit.

But the Government took a calculated risk, as this was also a crucial moment to flex India's diplomatic muscle, which had been missing, especially in India's China policy. Besides, it also sends a message to the world that India can take on a country like China on matters of national interest.

The Dalai Lama had initially indicated that he wanted to visit Arunachal Pradesh last year but was advised by the Government to defer it, given that the two sides were exchanging high-level visits and India didn't want friction. Sources say the turning point came when Beijing's provocations became alarming.

The number of intrusions on the boundary increased. Besides, a Chinese think tank backed by the Government suggested that China should break India into 36 parts. India was also concerted at China's persistent anti-India stand at multilateral fora. Beijing's aggressive statements opposing the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Arunachal Pradesh led the UPA Government to react, as there was a growing criticism within the country that the Government was soft on China "We were being criticised for being soft. We want to have good ties with China but there is a limit to our patience," explained a key government functionary.

But even in the face of provocation from its neighbour, New Delhi exercised restraint and tried to defuse the crisis through diplomatic means, but failed. Last month, as tensions grew, New Delhi quietly sent a message through its envoy S. Jaishankar to the Chinese that faced with a vocal Chinese stand against the PM's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, India would have no choice but to react. But instead of toning down its criticism, the Chinese upped the ante.

While there are stories in China's official media warning India of the consequences like the 1962 war, it is unlikely that China will risk that. Because in Circa 2009, India is not a Third World boarder but a robust power with nuclear weapons. Besides, even a limited border war may pull international powers to the region which China will not want. Another factor is that the Chinese leadership may not like to jeopardise the $52-billion trade that has created economic interdependence between the two countries. While India needs to stay the course, it should resist any pressure from China to change India's border interlocutor M.K. Narayanan, which Beijing wants, as it is frustrated with the slow pace of boundary talks. The Government has demonstrated a spine in its China policy, and it should now stay firm on it.

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