TURKSON Peter Kodwo AppiahUROSA SAVINO Jorge LiberatoVERSALDI GiuseppeVINGT-TROIS AndréZUBEIR WAKO Gabriel*I don't know how 120 cardinals made it into the Sistine Chapel - 2 apparently snuck in via one of the secret tunnels! They were expelled due to age restrictions not yet updated on the Vatican's website!

Total Survivors thus far = 50. The first 8 days of eliminations were based on age. Over the last 500 years, the average age of a new Pope at his election is 64. In the last 300 years, it's 65. I figured to give or take about 5 years in either direction, giving a bit more to the older end of the range due to today's longer lifespan. That's how I came to my guess that the next pope will be between the ages of 60-71.

The next round of eliminations begins today, based on geography and liturgical rite. While new technologies have made the Pope's leadership of the Catholic Church more universally visible than ever, I'm hedging my bet that the time is not yet ripe for the Patriarch of the Latin/Western Church to come from the East. This also means no Eastern Rite cardinals will make it, even if they live in the West. That leaves Europe, Africa, North and South America, and Australia (Western in its culture/roots). Only the most prominent and influential cardinals from Australia, Africa, North America, and South America (a little extra weight here, with 42% of the world's Catholics) will make the cut, as a good half of the cardinals still hail from Europe. Among these, roughly a quarter are Italian. For this reason, along with the tradition of having an Italian Bishop of the Italian city of Rome, Italians will have the easiest time making the cut during this round. Without further ado, let the next round of eliminations begin!

The Rules

There are 118 cardinal electors who will process into the Sistine Chapel at a date yet to be determined. They will participate in a sacred ceremony that is centuries old. The next pope is almost certain to come from that group of men, though he need not. He can be any eligible baptized male. In the meantime, let's get familiar with the men most likely to be chosen as the next Successor to St. Peter.

The way Survivor: Sistine Chapel will work is as follows:

1. I will begin by separating the 118 cardinal electors into 8 groups (or tribes, in Survivor terminology) of 15, with the last two groups being made up of 14. I will do this alphabetically for the sake of keeping things simple, and I hope to cover one tribe per day.

2. The first round of eliminations will be based on age. Anyone outside the range of 60-71 will be eliminated, as my gut tells me that this time around, the electors will be thinking a bit more long-term than they were when they elected the 78 year-old Cardinal Ratzinger to be Pope Benedict XVI, but not so long-term as John Paul II, who was elected before the age of 60. Tribes will not necessarily lose the same number of people. Some may be decimated while others keep their members intact.

3. The second round will take geography and rite into consideration. Some countries are extremely unlikely to produce a pope at this point in history, although there may be exceptions if one is dynamic enough (see Pope John Paul II). This will further reduce the number of members in each tribe.

4. The third round involves the first tribal merge. The number of tribes and members of each tribe will be determined by how many cardinals are left. Eliminations will be made on the basis of linguistic skills. If one cannot speak Italian and English, they are almost certainly eliminated. Assumptions will be made if linguistic information is not easily discovered.

5. The fourth round may or may not eliminate many candidates. The idea will be to eliminate anyone perceived as extremely polarizing. I honestly don't know if I will be able to uncover any who fit the bill, but if there are cardinals who do not fit the "Benedictine" interpretation of Vatican II as a Council of reform in continuity with Tradition, they will be eliminated.

6. The fifth round involves a final tribal merge. I feel that by this time there will be a small enough number to form one group of survivors. Eliminations will be based on a combination of things at this point, revisiting geography and linguistic skills especially.

7. The last round will require a more in-depth look at each of the remaining cardinal electors, and nothing other than my gut will determine who goes vs. who stays.

I welcome insightful comments throughout the process. Let's have some fun with this and use our prayerful imaginations to consider just who our next pope might be!

Check out Mark's blog for some interesting comments and insight into the Cardinals and the Catholic Church. You will need to click on each day to view the running commentary. Enjoy!

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posted on 02/21/2013 3:44:40 PM PST
by NYer
("Before I formed you in the womb I knew you." --Jeremiah 1:5)

Today is the 500th anniversary of the death of Pope Julius II, the pope who commissioned Michelangelo to paint the Sistine Chapel ceiling. (Pope Julius II was the nephew of Pope Sixtus IV, for whom the chapel is named.)

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