Friday, March 3, 2017

Norway February 2017 (Updated w/ insider input)

After a record January, things slowed down to a more average pace in February, with 3.904 new plug-in passenger cars sold in Norway last month, up 12% YoY, with the market share slightly down to 35%.

Looking at the Top Sellers, if the #1 BMW i3 doesn't surprise anyone right now, the Second Place of the VW Passat GTE, with 433 units (New sales record for the second month in a row) shows that the German Midsizer is catching on in Norway and could be an important player this year.

The #3 Nissan Leaf (408 units, best result in 10 months) is a welcome surprise, especially considering that a new version should come out sometime this year. With Nissan heavily discounting its electric model, the current Leaf seems to have some space in the market.

The #5 Renault Zoe is benefitting from its ZE 40 version to reach the top positions, having delivered 279 units, its best result in 8 months.

Pl

Model

Sales

1

BMW i3

497

2

Volkswagen Passat GTE

433

3

Nissan Leaf

408

4

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

386

5

Renault Zoe

279

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Nissan Leaf climbed to Third Place, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV jumped 11 places to a more normal #4, and the Renault Zoe climbed two positions to #5.

On the other hand, the Volvo XC90 PHEV was down three positions to #6, which was the same number of places lost by the Tesla Model X, now #11.

In the second half of the ranking, two models deserve a mention, after a bad start of the year, the Mercedes B250e was up four positions to #17, thanks to 129 units, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, after three months in the three digit area, slumped to just 26 units. Hyundai needs to increase production to meet demand, assuming or course, it wants to...In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (22%, up 2%) and BMW (20%, up 2%) are running for the leadership, while Mercedes (11% share) secured the Third Place over the Fourth Place Volvo (9%).

Looking at Fuel Cell numbers (0,03% share, highest in the world), Hyundai registered an additional two FCEV's last month, increasing the count this year to eight, while the Toyota Mirai is stuck at a big round Zero. Not a good sign, Toyota...

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With 35% share, plug-ins are spreading across the general ranking, with the BMW i3 winning this ranking for the fourth time in five months(!) and five plug-ins in the Top 10.

The remaining podium positions went also to plug-ins, with the VW Passat GTE, ending the month in Second and the veteran Nissan Leaf in Third.

The other plug-ins in the ranking are the Outlander PHEV, in #5, and the French Zoe, in #9.

Interestingly, the two regular ICE vehicles in the Top 10, the #6 Volvo V90 and the #8 VW Tiguan are said to grow a plug sometime this year.

At this pace, it won't be surprising that by year end, all models in this Top 10 will have some form of electrification...

With more than a third of sales now wearing a plug, and electrified (HEV including) vehicles now a majority (51%) in registrations, EV-derived trends are changing not only the Norwegian auto market as a whole, but also the lives of ordinary people:

1) A shift from owning to leasing cars!

As EV shares are increasing and Winter NOx numbers in the main cities are getting worse, both Oslo and Bergen consider a ban on Diesel cars mid-winter. In addition to this, a lot of far more attractive EV cars are coming the next 1-3 yrs. As a result Norwegian car owners do not want to be stuck with an ICE car that in a couple of years can be illegal (Thus useless) to drive. Hence, car leasing is now increasing rapidly in Norway:

To continue the EV growth, it is crucial that apartment owners can charge their EV at home. The Oslo EV owners organization invited local politicians to discuss the matter and 250 people showed up to demand apartment home charging!:

Regarding 2017 sales numbers so far: Things are shaping up as planned. The 2017 numbers will be defined in the last 6 months as Norwegians are still waiting for Opel Ampera-e. The big question is still: How many cars will Opel provide? Renault are promising increased numbers for Zoe. We'll see in March numbers!