The checklist that saves your bacon!TEN STEPS TO WIN

By James Bruce

Once a year most of us have to take our car for a 'roadworthy' test before we can re-register it for another year. This process is designed to save us (and other road users) from the pain and suffering an unreliable vehicle can cause.

Wouldn't it be nice, then, to have a simple checklist, like the roadworthy test, for our bets, so that we might save ourselves some 'pain and suffering' in the hip pocket department? In the case of the car, the mechanic has a list he must run through. Every item not ticked has to be fixed or the vehicle is not allowed on the road.

In the case of the punting roadworthy test, one item not ticked means - don't back the horse! It has failed the test and is likely to cost you money. What follows is my own simple roadworthy test for your selections, and all the answers can be found in most formguides.

DOES THE HORSE HAVE SOME RECENT FORM TO RECOMMEND IT?

Recent form is the most basic indicator of a horse's chance. If you are backing the horse because its number corresponds with your wife's birthday, now is the time to pull the pin! A horse which has not run a place at any of its last three runs is not, in my opinion, roadworthy.

DOES THE HORSE HAVE A REASONABLE STRIKE RATE?

Strike rate is one of the best 'rough' indicators of a horse's prospects. For a start it stops you betting in Maiden races! Many top punters will only back a horse with a 30 per cent or better win strike rate. Winning is a habit, with people and with horses. If your cursory glance at the formguide tells you that your selection has won 'one from 26 starts, then give it a miss.

It is easier to do the sums mentally using a 25 per cent win strike rate as a guide. This is a safe enough indicator that the horse does actually know how to win.

IS TODAY'S JOCKEY OF COMPARABLE ABILITY TO THE LAST JOCKEY TO RIDE THE HORSE?

If Mick Ditt an rode the horse last start and today a claiming apprentice is aboard - well, that's a cross and the horse is not roadworthy. This particular test only relies on you having a reasonable knowledge about which jockeys are the 'top ones'.

If the jockey on the horse today is in a similar bracket to the previous rider, you can reasonably expect the horse to perform as well. Since one of your other criteria is recent form, this is another plus. Some changes you will agree are okay - like, say, Michael Clarke to Damien Oliver, or Dittman to Jim Cassidy. A change from one of those to a jockey more in the battler category is not acceptable.

It's not that these other jockeys are not capable; they are. But they cannot be regarded in the same 'class' as the very top bracket of riders. So when the change is from Clarke or Dittman etc. to Nobby Nobody then tread carefully.

IS THE JOCKEY IN THE TOP 12 RIDERS IN HIS STATE?

While this question relates to the previous one, it is different and just as important. Remember that what we are devising here is a simple, and conservative, test which you can quickly apply as you run into the TAB agency to have a spur of the moment bet. By applying the quick roadworthy test, you will cut out a lot of losers.

It is a simple, continuing thought process to give two considerations to the jockey on your chosen horse. The first one is contained in Question 3, and the second is this one, which really means: "Does the jockey know how to win?"

We are looking for GOOD riders, not maybe good riders. Today's jockey might be Michael Clarke and the last jockey on was Steven King. No problem on either count. But if today's jockey is one of the 'second or third brigades you really must think twice.

You may be looking at a horse to be ridden by an 'also ran' jockey who rides the horse all the time. This factor, I believe, should stop you betting on the horse.

IS THE HORSE PROVEN ON THE TRACK?

Again, a simple question to answer. The 'c' or 't' beside the horse's name indicates that it has won at the course and distance, or at least at the track. If the horse fails this test, you might want to consult the detailed formguide to see if it has been placed on the track, in which case you might allow it to 'pass' this particular question.

IS THE HORSE PROVEN AT THE DISTANCE?

The 'd' next to its name in the formguide will give the quick answer to this one. Again, most formguides (even newspaper guides) now give two vital statistics (the Sportsman and the Sporting Globe certainly do) which are:

Form at the track; and

Form at the distance.

I would accept as a 'Pass' for this question, a placing (2nd or 3rd) at the distance, as well as a win, of course.

IS TODAY'S RACE WITHIN 200M OF THE HORSE'S PREVIOUS START?

This is a quick guide to whether the horse is stepping up in distance too far (or coming back in distance too much). We will consider as not roadworthy those horses making the switch from 1000m to 1400m, or from 1600m to 2000m. They may win but, on most occasions, they don't.

What we are looking at here is a speedy means of culling dangerous bets, not the sort of detailed form study in which many of us are usually involved. A lot of punters can't spare the time for such analytical study of form - and these are the bettors who are sure to be helped by this checklist approach.

IS THE CLASS OF TODAY'S RACE SIMILAR TO LAST START?

I would argue elsewhere that 'class' as expressed by Class 1, Class 2etc. is a very rough guide BUT ... it is a guide of some sort. You don't want to be on a horse which raced in Class 2 last start and is in a. Class 5 today. A natural progression with a winning horse is fine, but a major class jump is not.

So be wary of those runners who are eligible for, say, weaker races and which are taking on higher-classed competitors.

IS THE TRACK'GOOD' OR 'FAST'?

My belief is that the present method of giving track ratings is completely useless. However, the good and fast ratings are, at least, some sort of guide that the track is not rain-affected. There are plenty of better things to do than to blow your money on wet days. The great race-caller Ken Howard used to say: "Don't bet odds-on and don't run up steps."

Never being one likely to run up steps (or run anywhere else for that matter) I would replace the latter half of the maxim with the words,.. "and don't bet on rain-affected tracks."

Reality being what it is - that punters for the most part will bet on firm and wet tracks, no matter what - this particular question is likely to be avoided if a punter really wants a bet. Bearing this in mind, I would urge some degree of caution. Also, check quickly back to see if your selection has ability in the prevailing going.

If a horse is under 2/1 you are treading in dangerous waters. Even if they are not in Ken Howard's odds-on no-no area, short-priced horses are a direct path to the poor house. This roadworthy checklist is meant to be especially useful to the person who may go to the TAB for a bet, and horse's paying around 6/4 ($2.50) or 7/4 ($2.75) on the tote machine are often at better odds at the track (with bookmakers). Taking under the odds consistently is a deadly poison for your pocket.

Look for a price of at least 2/1 ($3.00) in a TAB dividend. By refusing to take under that price, you will be helping yourself to a long-term gain.

So there we have it. Ten simple questions which you can note on a small card, perhaps, and stick in your wallet or purse. The only extra knowledge you need is some idea of the top 12 Jockeys in the State you are betting on.

It'll take about a minute to run through the checklist and, remember, if your prospective bet fails any one of the tests, don't bet.

Two things could happen here. Firstly, you will suddenly stop backing so many losers! Secondly, you may stop betting altogether if your method of deciding which horses to back is so fatally flawed that none of your selections can be classed as roadworthy!

Of course, while the first possibility is a certainty, the more probable scenario for the second one is that you will modify the way you choose your prospective bets so that they are, indeed, roadworthy.

If the checklist makes you stop and re-think your entire selection approach, then all well and good. if you are choosing horses which are unroadworthy, it is definitely time to have a good look at what you're doing.