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Monday, December 09, 2013

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Lightning at Capitals, December 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Tuesday night to host
the Tampa Bay Lightning at Verizon Center.This will be a matchup of two teams with as much history against one
another as former Southeast Division rivals could have with one another.Tampa Bay is one of three teams that the Caps
faced in all 14 seasons of the Southeast Division, the Caps compiling a regular season
record of 68-30-6-6.

The Capitals record book is sprinkled with references to the
Lightning…

Most unanswered goals (9), the last of the four times this
was accomplished came against the Lightning on February 3, 1999, a 10-1 win for
Washington

Largest winning margin (9 goals), the last of the four times
accomplished coming in that February 3, 1999 game

Most goals in a period (8), yup… in that February 3, 1999
game

Most shots in a period (25)…ditto

Fastest three goals by an individual (2:06), by Peter Bondra
in a 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994

Fastest four goals by an individual (4:12), by Peter Bondra
in that same 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994

Fastest four goals by an individual (24:46), by Peter Bondra
in that same 6-3 win over Tampa bay on February 5, 1994

The recent history of the clubs is less kind to the
Capitals.Tampa Bay was the only club in
the Southeast that the Caps ever met in the post-season, doing so twice.Both times the Lightning were victorious, winning in 2003 in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on a power play goal by Martin St. Louis in the third
overtime, the other in 2011 when the Lightning swept the Caps in the Eastern Conference
semifinals.

Now these teams are in different divisions, the Caps in the
Metropolitan and the Lightning in the Atlantic.They have similar records – the Caps at 16-12-2, the Lightning at
17-10-2 – but they are going in different directions.The Caps have won four of their last five
games, while the Lightning are 3-5-2 in their last ten.

The striking thing about the Lightning over their past ten
games is their wildly uneven offense.Tampa
Bay has only 19 goals scored in those ten games and were shut out three times
in the process (twice by 1-0 scores, one of those in overtime).In their wins, though, they scored a total of
12 goals, a decent offensive output.

This unevenness is largely a product of having lost Steven Stamkos to a
broken right tibia against Boston on Veterans Day.In his stead, the goal scoring has been
picked up by winger Martin St. Louis (4-4-8 over the last ten games) and
defenseman Victor Hedman (3-3-6).St.
Louis, as any Caps fan knows, has been a thorn in the side of the club for years.He is 28-48-76, plus-6, in 72 career regular
season games against Washington.Hedman
has much less history against the Caps, posting a 1-4-5, minus-3 scoring line
in 20 career games against Washington.

Here is how the clubs compare overall through Sunday's games…

1.Three is the magic
number for Tampa Bay.The Lightning are
16-2-0 in games in which they score at least three goals, 1-8-2 when they do
not.

2.For a team that
has been defensively challenged in recent years, they have performed well in
this respect.Only six teams have
allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Lightning (45).A big part of that is their first period
play.Through Sunday’s games only three
teams have allowed fewer first period goals overall than Tampa Bay (14).

3.Keeping things
close is what the Lightning want to do.They are 12-4-3 in games decided by two or fewer goals, 5-6 in games
decided by three or more goals.

4.Only Colorado (13)
and San Jose (12) have more wins than Tampa Bay (11) when leading after one
period.The Lightning are 11-1-0 in such
games.

5.Whatever Tampa Bay
is doing to get to their 17-10-2 record, possession does not seem to be a big
part of it.The Lightning are a rather
mediocre possession team, posting a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close
situations of 50.0 percent (15th in the league), a Corsi-for
percentage in those situations of 50.4 percent (12th).Their performance has not been appreciably
worse over their current 3-5-2 slide.Five games at better than 50 percent Fenwick-for, five worse.Four games over 50 percent in Corsi-for
percentage, six worse.Perhaps the
possession issues are catching up to the Lightning.

1.The Caps have won
four of five games, which matches their best five-game stretch of the season,
accomplished twice.

2.This is the first
meeting of the former division rivals this season.Last season the Caps swept the series after
losing the first of the four game series, winning all three games and scoring
14 goals in the process.

3.Leading at the end
of one period is something the Caps need to work on.Six teams have led at the first intermission
less often than the Caps, who have done so seven times in 30 games.Those teams hardly inspire fear – Winnipeg,
Edmonton, Florida, Calgary, the Islanders, and Buffalo.

4.At the other end,
the Caps are one of only three teams in the NHL thus far to have not scored an
empty net goal.Only five teams have
fewer empty net goals scored against them than the Caps (2).

5.Possession
progress… Against the Rangers, the Caps set a club high fourth straight game
with a Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close situations above 50 percent.It might not be a coincidence that the Caps
scored 11 even strength goals in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ben Bishop

Ben Bishop appears to have taken a firm grip on the number
one goaltending role for the Lightning.He should.Comparing the
intra-club statistics, he has a goals against average that is more than a full
goal per game better than backup Anders Lindback (1.98 to 3.10) and a save
percentage that is almost 50 points better (.934 to .887).Bishop is ninth in the league in GAA and tied
for sixth in save percentage.If
anything, he has been even better in the Lightning’s 3-5-2 slide.Bishop is 2-3-1 over that stretch, but he has
a goals against average of 1.65 and a save percentage of .948 with one
shutout.Three of his four losses came
by shutout by his opposite number, one in overtime.He allowed only four goals in those three
games.It is a far distance from his
career record against the Caps – 0-2-0, 4.41, .884 in three appearances.

Washington: Martin Erat

On November 25th Martin Erat went public with a
demand to be traded.At the time he
said, “I want to be traded. We’ll see how it goes.Since day one, I didn’t get the chance here.
I got traded here to be a top-six player but never got the chance, never played
more than 15 minutes in here, and it’s time for me to move on.”Since then, Erat has dressed for four games,
and while he has only played more than 15 minutes once (16:31 in the Caps’ 5-2
win over his former team, the Nashville Predators), he has averaged more than
13 minutes a game and has three assists.His work with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera centering the third line has
been solid.In addition to the three
assists, he has been on ice for only two of the nine goals scored against the
Caps over those four games.Against the Lightning
he is 1-4-5, even, in nine career games.

Keys:

1.Win the
fives.Tampa Bay has an odd record when
it comes to special teams.They are
11-3-0 when allowing opponents four or more power play chances.The recent run of 5-on-5 success is something
the Caps might need to extend here, since getting a bunch of power play chances
might not have the benefits one would expect.

2.More than
Marty.Martin St. Louis has been a thorn
in the side of the Caps over his career, but Valtteri Filppula has had a fine
start to his career in Tampa.Signed by
the Lightning away from the Detroit Red Wings last summer, Filppula is third on
the team in goals and points, tied for second in assists.He is also tied for the team lead in power
play goals.Marty might get his points,
but Filppula can’t and Caps still win.

3.Second
chances.Ben Bishop is playing at such a
high level at the moment it seem inconceivable that first shots are going to do
a lot of damage.The Caps are going to
have to get greasy and make Bishop unfold his large frame (6’7”) to make second
and, if needed, third stops.

In the end…

The Caps are catching the Lightning at a good time.Tampa Bay has lost three of four games and
seven of their last ten.On the other
hand, the Caps have won four of five.And, they are doing more of the things they need to do – win at
even-strength, get more scoring than just Alex Ovechkin, get defense involved
in the play – to sustain a level of performance.

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The Washington Capitals ended the 2016-2017 as one of 12 franchises in the NHL never to win a Stanley Cup. Of that group, only the St. Louis Blues (48 seasons), Buffalo Sabres (45 seasons), and Vancouver Canucks (45 seasons) have gone longer never having won a Cup than the Capitals (41 seasons). Six teams came into the league after the Capitals entered the league in 1974-1975 and have won Stanley Cups: Colorado Rockies/New Jersey Devils (1976-1977), Edmonton Oilers (1979-1980), Quebec Nordiques/Colorado Avalanche (1979-1980), Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes (1979-1980), Tampa Bay Lightning (1992-1993), and the Anaheim Ducks (1993-1994).

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