Friday, January 13, 2017

I think if I was a Liberal Democrat, I'd be distinctly underwhelmed by the findings of the first two Britain-wide voting intention polls of 2017. Both YouGov and ICM have Tim Farron's party trailing in fourth place, behind UKIP by several points. The suggestions of a few weeks ago that 'normal service' had been resumed and that the broadcast media could safely revert to treating the Lib Dems as the 'real' third force of British politics now ring even more hollow than they did at the time. The very minor boost that YouGov reported for the party after Richmond Park appears to have been largely reversed, while ICM never really showed a boost in the first place. The most that can be said now is that the Lib Dems are at the higher end of what was their 'normal range' of support prior to Richmond Park. Unless they achieve a big headline success story at the local elections in May, the momentum from their by-election triumph may end up being squandered. It's the age-old story - for every by-election sensation like Hamilton that truly changes the course of history, there are ten other sensations that turn out to be one-hit wonders in retrospect.

Meanwhile, YouGov asked a long series of supplementary questions relating to Brexit, which allow us to make some sort of comparison between British public opinion and Scottish public opinion - and there's certainly quite a sharp contrast between the two. OK, we always have to bear in mind that Scottish subsamples of Britain-wide polls are small and not necessarily reliable - but for what it's worth, the Scottish voting intention figures intuitively 'feel' pretty close to the money. The SNP are on 51%, the Tories on 20%, Labour on 16% and the Lib Dems on 8%. Perhaps the SNP are a little too high and the Tories a touch too low, but the figures are certainly not far off from what we believe to be the true state of play. That adds a bit more credibility to what you're about to see.

How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the European Union?

Britain-wide figures : Very or fairly well 20%, Very or fairly badly 57%Scottish figures : Very or fairly well 8%, Very or fairly badly 69%

Do you think leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on the NHS, or will it make no difference?

Britain-wide figures : Good for the NHS 30%, Bad for the NHS 25%Scottish figures : Good for the NHS 13%, Bad for the NHS 36%

Do you think leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on people’s pensions, or will it make no difference?

Britain-wide figures : Good for pensions 10%, Bad for for pensions 25%Scottish figures : Good for pensions 4% , Bad for pensions 41%

What I find most extraordinary about those numbers is that, even now, there seems to be a lingering faith south of the border in the Leave campaign's claim that Brexit would somehow magically make the NHS better. A nasty shock is coming to a country near you...

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Remember that there are no political differences between Scotland and England. We've been told that often enough by fatty mcdougall and JK Spanner.

In other news. How can the herald possibly get away with an outright lie about the maternity unit being shut? A ward being full and a ward being closed are two entirely different things. Long since time for T Gordon to be silenced for good.

I think if they asked people in France or Germany these questions the response would be nearer Scotland's than UK/England's.It is rUK/England which is out of step with everyone else,not us.In itself,not necessarily a bad thing,except when it comes to imposing their views on others as they are about to find out with EU talks.There will always be an England,just as there will always be a Scotland,only separate as they clearly should be.

Strange how the Scottish Nationalists were part of the Get Britain Out 1975 campaign. However things do change when you join the system and pockets are lined with taxpayers money. Well it wisnae as bad as we thought at the time!

At the ripe young age of 20 in 1975, I was already an SNP supporter, but thought they were wrong about Europe - back then, I saw Europe as a reining in the worst tendencies of the Tory party, at least a bit. Europe did help put through quite a few advances in civil and human rights - working time directives and so on - and always supported the (independent) European Court of Human Rights, whose judgments have led over time to significant improvements in our civil and human rights and freedoms. This is, of course, why Ms. May wants to get rid of the lot of them.

Then Thatcher came along and handbagged the hell out of all of us, of course, and demanding sweeties for "England" if the Europeans didn't want us to leave. And the miners' strike, and the poll tax... I notice that Farage and Coburn are still trousering their European salaries, by the way, even though I don't think they're bothering to attend at all now. A very good example of pockets being lined with taxpayers' money, I suppose.

I'm really not sure what to make of this. Yes, the gaps are vast in some cases... but there appears to be only two actual disagreements(eg where Britain thinks X will be good and Scotland thinks X will be bad):

In hindsight, was Britain right or wrong to leave the European Union?Britain-wide figures : Right 47%, Wrong 43%Scottish figures : Right 31%, Wrong 60%

and

Do you think leaving the EU will have a good or bad effect on the NHS, or will it make no difference?Britain-wide figures : Good for the NHS 30%, Bad for the NHS 25%Scottish figures : Good for the NHS 13%, Bad for the NHS 36%

Granted, it does show differences. I'm just not sure those differences have become critically divergent... yet.

The Leave campaign's thing about furriners and immigrants "overloading" the NHS was always a piece of crap - it's furriners and immigrants who make up a large part of the NHS workforce, in both England and Scotland (and Wales and NI, of course). I'll be forever grateful to the South Sudanese Scottish surgeon who saved my life by putting a couple of stents in my coronary arteries when I was having a heart attack.

I look forward to the day when Scotland can have its own immigration policy that reflects our needs rather than the prejudices of UKIP and the Tory party.

The Leave campaign's thing about furriners and immigrants "overloading" the NHS was always a piece of crap - it's furriners and immigrants who make up a large part of the NHS workforce, in both England and Scotland (and Wales and NI, of course). I'll be forever grateful to the South Sudanese Scottish surgeon who saved my life by putting a couple of stents in my coronary arteries when I was having a heart attack.

I look forward to the day when Scotland can have its own immigration policy that reflects our needs rather than the prejudices of UKIP and the Tory party.

With regard to questions on the 'NHS', the framers of the questionnaire are assuming that there is a single NHS, which is NHS England. There have always been four NHS's since the inception in 1948. There are many common factors amongst them, but there are also significant differences. In the main the experiences of those of us who live in Scotland of NHS Scotland are generally better than those in the other three countries. Such nuanced differences tend to get smothered in such surveys. There are similar issues on questions regarding education and Law and Order.

Occasionally I get an invite to a Yougov poll and if they ask questions which are really meant about the NHS in England or other Westminster departments I always add a comment that my answers refer to departments run by the Scottish Government and not the Westminster Government.

If it's a Britain-wide poll, my own inclination would be to answer questions about the NHS as if they refer to the English NHS and the UK government's handling of it, because that's certainly the way the results will be interpreted, whether we like it or not.

Just done a YouGov poll today and the question was the usual badly framed 'NHS' in crisis question - made a very sharp comment back to YouGov about the incompetence/ignorance/stupidity of their polling methodology

How can it be that most people thought it the right thing to come out of the EU when every other question seems to indicate that everybody UK thinks things are going to be worse? This makes no sense to me.

How can it be that most people thought it the right thing to come out of the EU when every other question seems to indicate that everybody UK thinks things are going to be worse? This makes no sense to me.