Weekend Predictions: Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie Take On Dunkirk

July 27th, 2017

The final weekend of July has two wide releases, Atomic Blonde and The Emoji Movie. Neither are expected to be monster hits, but both could be profitable at the box office. Atomic Blonde’s reviews are excellent and its connections to the John Wick movies could get people into theaters. The Emoji Movie still has no reviews and its buzz is incredibly negative. I haven’t seen buzz this negative since Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul. This does give Dunkirk a real shot at repeating on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Jason Bourne opened with nearly $60 million, which will likely be more than both new releases this year earn. Even if Dunkirk has better legs than expected, there’s little hope 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison.

I’m more bullish than most when it comes to Atomic Blonde. The reviews are nearly 80% positive, which should really help its box office chances. Also, as Wonder Woman showed us, there’s a demand for action films starring women and its star, Charlize Theron, has had some success in this genre. Finally, the lack of direct competition should also help at the box office. That said, it isn’t a $100 million production, so it likely won’t be a monster hit. On the high end, it could top $30 million. On the low end, it will struggle to get to $20 million. I think the film will be on the high end of expectations with $28 million, but again, I’m more bullish than most, so keep that in mind.

The Emoji Movie has one thing going for it: It’s target audience. The film is aimed at kids and the last major family film to come out this summer was Despicable Me 3, which is nearly a month old, so there is a pent up demand for the film. On the other hand, there are still no reviews and that’s a bad sign. Additionally, the buzz is terrible and has been since the film was first announced and the trailers haven’t done anything to improve the buzz. There are some who think this film will earn first place with $30 million, but I think it will land in second place with $26 million.

Dunkirk should have good legs. It is aimed at a more mature target demographic and its reviews are strong enough that it could do well during Awards Season. On the other hand, almost no movie has had good legs this summer. Even movies that were expected to do well, like War for the Planet of the Apes, plummeted more than 60% during its sophomore stint. I don’t think Dunkirk will do that poorly, but it will likely fall just over 50% to $25 million.

Girls Trip beat expectations during its opening weekend and it earned stellar reviews. However, that might not mean much when it comes to its legs. It is aimed at African-American women, which is an underserved market. When a market is underserved, they tend to rush out and see films right away, because of pent up demand. On the other hand, it is also aimed at a more mature target demographic and being aimed at women does historically help a film’s legs. I’m going with a sophomore stint of $16 million, which is great for a film that cost just $28 million to make. In fact, it would have been a fine opening weekend.

Spider-Man: Homecoming needs about $13 million to be on pace to get to $300 million. It will likely earn just under $12 million, which means it will need a small push from the studio to hit that milestone.