Andrew Luck vs. J.J. Watt: Top 2 NFL Comeback Player of the Year contenders square off

The Indianapolis Colts play the Houston Texans on Sunday. Listen as insiders Zak Keefer and Joel Erickson discuss what to expect Sunday.
Clark Wade, Clark.Wade@Indystar.com

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) runs away from Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt (99) in the second half of their game on Sunday, Sept. 30, 2018. The Indianapolis Colts lost 37-34 in overtime to the Houston Texans. (Photo: Matt Kryger/IndyStar)

Story Highlights

INDIANAPOLIS — The chronicles of their careers share similar chapters.

Each has stood at or near the top of his profession, J.J. Watt a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year award winner; Andrew Luck a three-time Pro Bowl quarterback who saved a franchise from anonymity.

After years of sustained success, each suffered injuries many believed would threaten their livelihoods. Each sank to new depths of hopelessness during recovery, and doubted whether he'd ever again play the game he loves. Each has returned to the field in 2018 with a vengeance, orchestrating some of the best football of his career and making a compelling case to be named NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

Finally, each has a deep admiration for what the other has accomplished and overcome. Watt recently told members of the Indianapolis media that Luck looks like the same "phenomenal quarterback" he was before the injury, while Luck says he's gained a new appreciation for a player he already greatly respected.

"He’s certainly an elite player and he’s playing like an elite player," Luck said. "But yeah, I think I have an appreciation for anybody who has sat out significant time or missed a year."

This Sunday, these two superstars converge at NRG Stadium in Houston, where there already will be plenty on the line. Luck's Indianapolis Colts (6-6) will be fighting for their playoff lives, while Watt's Texans (9-3) will be trying to lock up the AFC South crown and pushing for their first postseason bye in franchise history.

With so much at stake — and neither Luck nor Watt caring much for individual accolades — the fight for NFL Comeback Player of the Year won't be top of mind for most, but the fact is this game will go a long way toward deciding which of these rivals walks away with the award.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) drops back to pass on the Jacksonville Jaguars defense in the first quarter of their game at TIAA Bank Field on Thursday, Dec. 2, 2018. (Photo: Jenna Watson/IndyStar)

The case for Luck

It’s pretty simple. He traveled to hell and back to get to where he is today.

In the 20 months leading up to Week 1 of the 2018 season, Luck sank lower than he’d ever thought possible. His surgically repaired shoulder wasn’t healing, doubt tried to destroy him:

Fast-forward a few months, and — despite a rough game Sunday against Jacksonville — Luck remains on the brink of his most brilliant season yet. The 29-year-old quarterback had a remarkable eight-game stretch in which he tossed three-plus touchdowns per game — something only future hall-of-famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had done before. He’s on pace to throw for 4,500 yards and 43 touchdowns, while his passer rating sits at a career high 98.9.

Not only has Luck risen from the ashes; so has his team. After a 4-12 season without him, the Colts started this year 1-5 and were left for dead. No one outside of the Colts organization thought they’d be able to rebound and put themselves back in the playoff picture, but after rattling off five straight wins — the longest streak of Luck’s career — that’s exactly where they are.

While there are plenty of Colts — players, coaches and executives alike — who deserve credit for the turnaround, all of them would say it wouldn't have been possible without the heroics of Luck. He's the catalyst for the Colts' comeback, helping turn a lost season into something worth remembering.

At this point, there is no doubt: Luck is all the way back, and he might be better than ever.

The case against Luck

On their own, Luck’s numbers look otherworldly and are undoubtedly the best of his career. But how good are they compared to the stats of his fellow signal-callers? Maybe not as good as you think.

Take a gander around the pass-happy NFL, and there are at least a half-dozen quarterbacks doing what Luck is doing — only better. Among the most significant quarterback measurements, there is only one in which Luck ranks in the top five: touchdowns (No. 2 with 32).

Meanwhile, he’s fallen to ninth in completion percentage (.679), eighth in yards (3,360), 29th in yards per attempt (6.87 — sandwiched between Blake Bortles and Sam Darnold), 13th in passer rating (98.9) and 10th in total QBR (68.6). His 12 interceptions are tied for third most in the league.

While Watt is a contender for his fourth NFL Defensive Player of the Year award and fifth All-Pro selection, Luck will have a tough time even getting a Pro Bowl nod ahead of the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady or Deshaun Watson, each arguably enjoying stronger statistical seasons.

J.J. Watt has terrorized the Colts during his NFL career.(Photo: Matt Kryger/The Star)

The case for Watt

He's second in the AFC with 11.5 sacks and five forced fumbles. He's tied for fourth in QB hits (20) and eighth in tackles for loss (14). Anyone who doubted Watt would return to his all-world form is living to regret their lack of faith in one of the greatest defensive players of this generation.

Of course, it’s not as though doubt wasn’t warranted. Each of the past two years, Watt’s season was ended prematurely by a significant injury. He played just three games in 2016 before hitting injured reserve to undergo back surgery. He returned for only five games in 2017 before shattering his leg during a game against Kansas City.

Watt doesn’t blame those who didn’t believe he’d ever be the same again.

"I can't sit here and get too mad at people who thought I might be washed up or thought I might be done,” Watt told ESPN’s Sarah Barshop. “I was sitting in that same boat when I was sitting at home with a cast on my leg and not being able to walk, thinking, 'Man, will I be the same again?'"

Safe to say the answer is yes. After a slow start to the season, Watt has been been on a tear since Week 3 — which, perhaps not coincidentally, almost perfectly coincides with Houston’s NFL-best nine-game winning streak.

Watt got the ball rolling by dismantling the New York Giants offensive line, sacking quarterback Eli Manning three times, doubling his tackle total (from 8 to 16) and forcing a fumble. Though the Texans would drop the game against New York, it signaled the beginning of their turnaround. Watt and the Texans ventured to Indianapolis for a Week 4 matchup with the Colts, where he harassed Luck all afternoon. He sacked Luck twice and forced two fumbles to help Houston start a winning streak that has yet to end. Since taking down the Colts 37-34 in overtime, the Texans have rattled off eight more victories in a row and are on the verge of their third AFC South title in four years.

In that same span, Watt has racked up 6.5 more sacks, including at least one in all but one game. Behind Watt, Houston’s defense has reclaimed its position as one of the fiercest units in the NFL, surging into the top five in defensive DVOA and third in points allowed per game 19.6.

Compare that to where Houston's defense finished last year without Watt — 23rd in DVOA and dead last in points allowed at 27.3 — and you get a pretty clear picture of the enormous impact he has on this team.

The case against Watt

Frankly, there isn’t a great one. Luck’s best chance is that voters value quarterback play significantly higher than a game-wrecking defensive end. It is undeniable that a quarterback holds greater influence over a team's success than any single player on defense. That being the case, voting could could come down to whether the Colts reach the postseason. If Indianapolis charges back into the divisional race — starting with an upset of the Texans on Sunday— or rallies to win a Wild Card berth, Luck will have a compelling case. However, if Watt and the Texans shut down the Colts the way Jacksonville did this past weekend, expect the defensive end to add yet another award to his extensive collection.

Extra credit

NFL Comeback Player of the Year, which was created in 1988, has never been awarded to a Texan or Colt. Colts legend Peyton Manning was honored the year after being released by Indianapolis and signing with Denver, where he threw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns. Manning was named a Pro Bowler that year and finished second in the MVP voting to then-Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.

Peterson, too, has made a case for winning NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The running back’s career looked to be over after last year’s lackluster age 32-season in Arizona/New Orleans. However, he has proved this year in Washington that he still has something left in the tank. With 856 rushing yards, Peterson is closing in on just the seventh 1,000-yard season for a back 33 years or older. Only Frank Gore (Indianapolis, 2016) has accomplished the feat this millennium.