Predicting the Outcome of Manchester United's Final 5 Premier League Games

The Premier League run-in feels like it is under way, and Manchester United need to overturn the one point and plus-12 goal-difference advantage currently held by Manchester City.

The Red Devils have seven league games left, plus a maximum of three in the FA Cup. Here we concern ourselves with the final league games, the matches which could decide whether United make it into the UEFA Champions League next season.

No matter what happens between now and the end of the season, though, it will be viewed as a disappointment. An FA Cup win would be an enjoyable distraction, but the minimum goal must surely have been to improve on last season's fourth-placed finish. As it stands, matching that seems like the best-case scenario.

Improving upon it would require a significant collapse from Arsenal who are five points clear of United in third place. It would also require a new level of consistency from the Red Devils, which will not be easy given the opposition they are set to face.

The last five league games contain plenty of challenges, featuring the current league leaders, relegation battlers and fellow competitors for a top-four spot.

Let's take a look at how those games might play out.

April 20: Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace
When United met Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on 31 October, 2015, they played out one of the more turgid of their seven 0-0 draws this season.

Palace had the odd spark of invention thanks to their wingers, but United were ponderous and ineffective on the ball. It was during the most conservative phase of their season, and the travelling supporters sang "We're Man United, we want to attack" to express their frustration.

The Red Devils had failed to score in three successive games, and they were on the verge of making that four before Wayne Rooney scored a 79th-minute winner against CSKA Moscow at home.

United have improved on the goalscoring front in the second half of the season, only failing to register in three of the 20 games they have played since the turn of the year.

Palace's season has deteriorated sharply since that game. They were in eighth place in the table after their encounter with United, but now sit 17th, though they are seven points clear of the drop.

Remarkably, they have failed to win in the league since December 19. They are one of the few sides against whom it would be a huge upset if United lost.

However, it is possible for United to succumb to that kind of upset—they are one of only three teams Norwich City have beaten away from home this season, for example. Nonetheless, predicting anything other than a home win for this one would be an act of significant pessimism.

Prediction: 2-0 to United.

May 1: Manchester United vs. Leicester City
Leicester's meeting with United at the King Power Stadium in November is now written into the recent history of English football. Jamie Vardy scored for his 11th game in a row, breaking Ruud van Nistelrooy's Premier League record for goals in consecutive matches.

While the Foxes ended that round of games second in the league on goal difference to Manchester City, few would have given serious credence that their next game with United in May 2016 would have been a key part of a genuine title attempt.

The achievements of their season so far make this game incredibly difficult to call. In truth, United were pretty effective at stifling Leicester, though they conceded to a signature counter-attacking goal.

They used a back three to deal with the Foxes' attacking threat, and it will be intriguing to see whether Van Gaal does the same here. Generally speaking, that tactic has not served United too well.

Claudio Ranieri's side have tightened up of late, winning their last four games 1-0, and Sir Alex Ferguson's prediction that they will have won the league by the time they get to Old Trafford, per Jonathan Northcroft of the Sunday Times, may prove correct.

That will change the tenor of this match—Leicester are less likely to muster an away win if they do not need the points.

Prediction: 1-1 if Leicester have not yet won the title, 1-0 to United if they have.

May 7: Norwich City vs. Manchester United
Before United's arrival at Carrow Road, Norwich City will have played Crystal Palace, Sunderland, Watford and Arsenal. The number of points they claim from those games will have a huge bearing on the outcome of this match.

As things stand, they are four points ahead of Sunderland and six points ahead of Newcastle United, just out of the drop zone. Both north-east clubs have a game in hand over the Canaries, but their 3-2 win over the Geordies on Saturday puts them in pole position to escape relegation.

United travelling to face a Norwich side scrapping for survival would be very different to United lining up against a team reasonably assured of their Premier League place next season.

The Canaries are unbeaten in their last three games, and they are on a two-match winning run. If they can beat Alan Pardew's Palace at Selhurst Park and Sam Allardyce's Sunderland in their next two games, that could effectively see them safe.

If that happens and United are still in with a shot at a European place, then the Red Devils should have enough to avenge the 2-1 defeat they experienced against Alex Neil's men at Old Trafford.

That was one of United's worst performances of the season, but there is no reason they should repeat it at Carrow Road.

Prediction: 2-0 to United if Norwich are safe, 2-1 to Norwich otherwise.

May 10: West Ham United vs. Manchester United
West Ham United will be familiar opposition for Manchester United by this point. They will already have faced the Irons at Upton Park in an FA Cup sixth-round replay on April 13.

The Hammers are two points behind United in the league table, with identical goal difference, so there could be a lot riding on this one.

United are 10th in the league in away form this season, and the Hammers are sixth for home form.

Indeed, it is the Red Devils' away performances which have been so costly to their season—they are earning 2.07 points per game at home, the second highest in the division behind Leicester. That number drops to 1.38 away from Old Trafford.

All of this points to a tough day at the office for Van Gaal. A win here would be a big achievement, but from this distance out, it looks a little unlikely to come to pass.

Prediction: A comfortable 2-0 win for West Ham.

May 15: Manchester United vs. Bournemouth
Bournemouth are practically safe from relegation, a position they would have gladly accepted after their 2-1 home win over United in December.

That game followed the Cherries' remarkable 1-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, marking a sequence of fixtures which made a big difference to their season.

Assuming United are not suffering from the kind of injury crisis that befell them ahead of the two sides' December meeting, and assuming the Red Devils still have something to play for, anything other than a home win will be a big upset.

United should end their league season—and possibly Van Gaal's time in charge—with a comfortable victory.