The Two Charts That Matter From Smith And Wesson's December Investor Presentation

“NOVEMBER NSSF-ADJUSTED NICS CHECKS UP 38.5%... Powered by the largest single day ever for background checks on Black Friday, November 2012 is now the record holder for the most background checks conducted in a single month. The November 2012 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,525,177 is an increase of 38.5 percent over the NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,101,076 in November 2011. For comparison, the unadjusted November 2012 NICS figure of 1,997,703 reflects a 30.8 percent increase from the unadjusted NICS figure of 1,527,454 in Nov. 2011. This marks the 30th straight month that NSSF-adjusted NICS figures have increased when compared to the same period the previous year. The number reported for November 2012 eclipsed the previous high in December 2011 by 8.1 percent.”

Although both of these are good, a better measure is ammo, of which there isn't a good chart I could find quickly. With DHS buying hundreds of millions of rounds for training, consumers buying ammo like it is a gold hedge (yes, ammo, depending on type, outperformed most stock indices for the last 10 years) in similar quantities, and the rest of legit law enforcement pouring through it like water, something has to go in those 300M guns and it is explosive gold.

The manufacturer sales chart for 1982-2011 is pretty, but it's also nominal dollar values not adjusted for inflation. That makes it hard to gauge demand by that chart; with inflation, there would still be a rise (especially in 08-09, with the fear of a new assault weapons ban) but not nearly as pronounced. A chart of units sold might be more informative.