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When the enemy is a friend's friend Hezbollah's fears beyond the killing of Samir Kuntar

The assassination of Samir Kuntar earlier this week was a major slap on the face for Hezbollah and Iran — not because Kuntar is dead but because their support base in Lebanon and the region now understand their complicated alliance with Russia. Accordingly, Iran’s increasing vulnerability in Syria will be gradually exposed and this will further shake any remaining trust Shiites in the region have for Iran and Hezbollah.

This week, Shiites — mainly in Lebanon — face the bitter fact that Russia allowed Israel to assassinate Kuntar. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech following Kuntar’s funeral was beyond lame. He spoke about Kuntar for four cold minutes before proceeding to lash out for over 20 minutes about Shiites in Nigeria and the US sanctions against the Party of God.

Nasrallah is actually more concerned about three issues:

First, US sanctions against Hezbollah were recently increased. Some economic analysts in Lebanon say that the purpose of these sanctions is to make sure Hezbollah does not receive much-needed money after the sanctions against Iran are lifted, and Hezbollah’s Sayyed is certainly concerned about that prospect. Without money to pay for social services, fighters and their families, he and his party are doomed. Today, pro-Hezbollah papers and media leaked news that entailed a clear threat to the banks in Lebanon.

Second, Hezbollah is more crippled than ever with the new and complicated alliances over Syria and Iraq. Nasrallah already knows that retaliation against Israel that could start another war is out of the question, yet some kind of retaliation is needed — something like the one following Jihad Mughniyeh’s assassination last year. But the Iran deal, followed by the new alliance between Russia and Iran on Syria, and the ongoing coordination between Russia and Israel, of which Kuntar’s assassination is an example, makes any Hezbollah retaliation far more complicated.

The third issue is Russia’s role in Syria. The Iranian and Hezbollah leaderships know that Russia cannot be trusted: its priority is to save Assad’s regime, not to protect Iran’s interests. In fact, what Iran wants in Syria differs substantially from what Russia wants, but the support base wasn’t aware of these discrepancies. Kuntar’s death has exposed the ugly truth about Russia’s coordination with Israel and how serious it is when it comes to targeting Hezbollah’s commanders and assets. Hezbollah cannot retaliate and now the support base understands this ugly truth.

For these supporters, Iran is supposed to stand above all. Iran is not in Syria to make compromises over its authority and control, and it is certainly not supposed to accept an ally coordinating with an enemy.

The assassination of Samir Kuntar revealed two things to the Shiite support base: that Iran is actually weak and is compromising in Syria, and that the region has moved beyond the Israeli/Arab conflict, and Hezbollah now has different priorities.

For Hezbollah, the most unsettling part of this military coordination between Russia and Israel is that it allows Israel to fly freely over Syria as long as it coordinates with Russia. Also, Russia knows the logistic and military details of Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria. It’s extremely worrying to Hezbollah that Russia is sharing these details with Israel under this arrangement. Meanwhile, Iran is not benefiting from the Russian intervention. Rather, it is jeopardizing its plans both on military and diplomatic levels, which will eventually jeopardize its ambitions in the region.

As far as Russia is concerned, Iran, its interests, and its commanders can go to hell. Russia is in Syria for Russia, not for Iran. When Iran and the US signed the deal earlier this year, it was sold to the Shiite support base as a victory. ‘We brought the US to the table,’ they said. ‘We still have our nuclear program,’ they stated. ‘We will never be America’s allies.’ It wasn’t easy to satisfy everybody, but at least Iran didn’t lose in this deal. With the Russian intervention in Syria, however, Iran is actually losing territory, control and future prospects.

It will be extremely hard to sell this one.Hanin Ghaddar is the managing editor of NOW and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council. She tweets @haningdr

"No need to say more...I, for one, do not care one iota about being politically correct, I do call it as I see it without no fear, and those who get their feeling hurt by such truth I say to them:" GO CRY ME A RIVER" "-Beirutilibnani

The Right To Do Something Does Not Mean It Is Right. (William Safire)

Every piece of this is man's bullshit. They call this war a cloud over the land. But they made the weather and then they stand in the rain and say 'Shit, it's raining!'

Author: Ali HashemPosted December 22, 2015
DAMASCUS, Syria — The night of Dec. 19 wasn’t any different from other nights in Damascus. The streets were full of cars, despite electricity blackouts; the coffee shops were packed with customers; a large group of Syrian and Lebanese journalists attended a wedding at the Sheraton Hotel; and Samir Kuntar, the Lebanese commander of the “Syrian resistance for the liberation of occupied Golan,” was at his residence in the suburb of Jaramana to the east of Damascus.

At 22:42 p.m., Twitter account Damascus Now tweeted: “Several mortars exploded in the city of Jaramana injuring several people.” This was to be normal, too, if it wasn't for the fact that what was thought to be mortars were missiles that destroyed the building and killed three men.
“Everyone in Jaramana knew that Kuntar lived in that building,” Mohammed, a Lebanese journalist in Damascus, told Al-Monitor on condition his last name be withheld.
He said, “They found the body, told the family, and it’s now all about Hezbollah’s statement in the morning.” At 4:18 a.m., Bassam Kuntar, Samir’s younger brother, tweeted the news: “With honor, we mourn Cmdr. Samir Kuntar and we proudly join the cavalcade of the martyrs’ families.”
Kuntar knew this would happen one day. In fact, he told pan-Arab news network Al-Mayadeen on July 1, “The most important thing is that even if Israel assassinated me, the path of resistance in Syria started and nobody can stop it.”
Kuntar discussed the issue with close friends and raised it with his leaders in Hezbollah.
“The Israeli threats on martyr Kuntar’s life existed from the day he was released, even before the issue of the popular resistance in the Golan Heights was discussed,” Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Dec. 21, mourning the man whom he described as “one of us,” and vowing revenge. “It’s our right to seek revenge and we will practice this right — let this be known to everyone,” Nasrallah stressed.
Nasrallah spoke in a significantly calm manner, in comparison with speeches on similar occasions. Yet he was concise to the point of saying, “There’s no doubt that Israel carried out the assassination. It was a roaring military operation, not a silent ambiguous intelligence attack,” he said. “I’ll repeat what I said in January 2015: Whenever any cadre from the Islamic resistance is killed, we will hold Israel responsible and we will respond.”
To Hezbollah, the assassination of Kuntar is part of a parallel war on a different arena with Israel, the Golan front, which he referred to in his speech.
Kuntar, according to an Iranian source, had been working on building the “Syrian resistance for the liberation of occupied Golan” since May 2013.
Kuntar was dispatched to Syria and started working on old plans to bring this front alive. These plans were first brought to life by former Hezbollah military Cmdr. Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in Damascus in February 2008.
A Syrian military source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “For 2½ years, Kuntar worked on building cells from residents of areas close to the borders with the Golan Heights. He worked on providing them with training, arms and salaries.”
He added, “His group was getting bigger; his first local officer was called Moafak Badriyeh, a Syrian from the village of Hadar from the liberated part of the Golan Heights. Badriyeh was later killed by Israel. He was responsible for launching rockets at Israeli posts in the occupied Golan Heights and bomb attacks.”
In March 2014, three major incidents took place in the Israeli-occupied part of the Golan Heights: an attack on March 5, March 14 and March 18. The last attack saw one Israeli soldier killed and seven wounded, while four were injured during the second attack.
On April 26, four Syrian fighters were killed during a clash with an Israeli patrol in the Golan Heights. A statement issued that afternoon by the popular Syrian resistance read: “Four Syrian resistance heroes were killed Sunday evening, April 26, 2015. Two from Hadar — Youssef Hassoun and Samih Badriyeh — and two sons of the martyr prisoner Walid Mahmoud from Majdal Shams, Nazih and Thaer Mahmoud.”
An Iranian military source told Al-Monitor that efforts to build the Syrian resistance was a main task executed by Kuntar in coordination with Hezbollah and under the direct supervision of Iran’s Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Nasrallah.
“This was an ambitious strategic project for the resistance bloc, and Kuntar played an important role in making it happen. He was assassinated by Israel and he already planned his own revenge,” the source said.
Earlier this year, on Jan. 18, five Hezbollah members and an Iranian general were killed near Quneitra on the border with the occupied Golan Heights, when Israeli helicopters launched an attack on their convoy. The victims included Jihad Mughniyeh, the son of Hezbollah’s slain commander Mughniyeh, and Mohammed Issa, who is said to be the Hezbollah commander responsible for the Golan front.
Kuntar was thought to be part of the convoy, as the first rumors suggested he was one of the slain commanders. But he wasn’t there. At the time, Hezbollah responded by attacking an Israeli convoy on Jan. 28, killing two Israeli soldiers.
“Israel’s efforts to hit the Syrian resistance before it gets bigger and stronger indicates how much they are afraid of this front,” said the Syrian military source.
He explained that Kuntar and his team crossed an Israeli red line, saying, “Israel can’t tolerate seeing this resistance embryo growing and becoming a real threat. This is not only about Israel, or even America. How can we link between Kuntar’s designation on the US terror list and his assassination; this for sure had an American green light.”
On Sep. 8, the US State Department designated Kuntar as a “specially designated global terrorist.” According to a statement published on its website, Kuntar “played an operational role, with the assistance of Iran and Syria, in building up Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure in the Golan Heights.”
All ears were on Nasrallah’s speech to see if Hezbollah was willing to respond. Yet he kept what could be described as a poker face, keeping all options on the table. Nasrallah said he will respond anywhere his group chooses, and this means putting all borders shared with Israel on high alert, not only in Lebanon but also in Syria.

"No need to say more...I, for one, do not care one iota about being politically correct, I do call it as I see it without no fear, and those who get their feeling hurt by such truth I say to them:" GO CRY ME A RIVER" "-Beirutilibnani

The Right To Do Something Does Not Mean It Is Right. (William Safire)

Every piece of this is man's bullshit. They call this war a cloud over the land. But they made the weather and then they stand in the rain and say 'Shit, it's raining!'

You understand that the tenets of the Druze (Druz) faith is secret so I am certain you don't know anything about the religion either.

They were secret for a long long time until their books were exposed and tales were told on LBC during the Jabal war..

You have said much about Druze murdering people in bed.....maybe in Lebanon they do, but in Israel they die in the service of the Jewish State and you my friend are not in the position to school me in the subject.
Druze and the Jews share common cause and have done so since the beginning of the State.

Well good luck trusting them.

Sergeant-Major Zidan Saif, 30, of the Druse village of Kfar Yanouch in the Galilee,died defending Rabbis.Police Commissioner Danino, in a moving speech, said that Mr Saif 'ran into the heart of the murderous inferno, without fear, without concern' and that the people of Israel 'owe him a great debt' . 83% of Druze serve in the IDF. Of these, 40% are combat soldiers
.

This man Madhat Yusuf, a Druze soldier died defending Joseph of the Bibles Tomb.
Blood seals the deal for me @Kasarjian not sorrowful tales from across the border.

One more thing I know nothing about the tenets of the faith because it is a secret religion limited the tenets of the Druze religion are secret and mysterious, even to many Druze themselves, since the faith allows only a limited number of elite men and sometimes women, called uqqal("the enlightened"), to study and learn all of its aspects.@Kasarjian are you equal to "the enlightened" No...I did not think so.
That said the history of the people from it's beginnings has been an interest of mine so I don't believe I need any help here.

Samaritan they will step on your throat at the right time and at a time of their convenience.....I am not arguing with you....

There are many women who are brilliants in politics, as politicians or as journalists. However, Hanin Ghadar is not one of them. She better stop writing articles... Who reads her anyway? except Greg of course...

7anin Ghadar is quite right here actually, the Russians certainly aren't crazy enough to start a war they can't win with Israel, they know that cooperation is desirable and even necessary to some extent. I said this many times anyway, Russia and Iran are bound to clash sooner or later, the Russian intervention in Syria highlights that there's a global divergence of interests at stake and that both Russia and Iran are driven by alien ideologies which leave no room for cooperation or compromise.
Where she's wrong though, is that the death of notorious scumbags like Jihad Moghniyeh and Samir el Qantar isn't weakening HA's support base, if anything it enables HA to further endoctrinate its supporters and re-fuel its anti-Israel rhetoric after years of bad PR in Syria and Iraq. On the other hand, HA still doesn't understand that Israel now has an extremely low tolerance threshold for any kind of "retaliation", the next bonehead move from Nasral-rat could well be the last and sign HA's death warrant by dragging Lebanon into a merciless war for survival against the IDF in the process, things will get pretty messy for Lebanon during the next round you can be sure of that.