Honestly, I don't see how Evans has any greater chance than any given fighter does on any given night. He's arguably at the head of a pack that is still staring at Jones' back from a distance. Jon Jones has left the rest of the division behind.

They used to train together, like 18ish months ago. It wasn't for very long, and then Rashad moved his camp to a different location for whatever reason. So whatever the circumstances surrounding Rashad's oft-told story, One Time at Jackson's Camp, that was against pre-Ryan Bader Jon Jones. We've seen how much Bones has progressed since then.

Rashad did well against Tito (but that's Tito) and his win over Phil Davis was both impressive and not impressive enough; which is to say that I don't see someone taking Jones to a decision and winning three rounds, and Rashad didn't show enough killer instinct to actually finish Davis despite having him in multiple (2 or 3?) crucifixes and despite not facing any significant threat from Phil's standup.

Rashad is a great fighter in a division that has a sublime champion and--while he might very well surprise me--I can't see much of a scenario where he manages to win the belt.

QFT.

Jones does too many things well to lose to Evans who relies on hand speed and takedowns, but of which may be hindered by Jones' size advantage. Also, Machida gave Jones problems for a round and now that I've seen that Jones can adjust to the strangest style he's likely to see, I'm even more sure that Evans can't throw anything at him that he can't deal with.

Everyone is talking about how Rashad's edge against Jones may be in the "mental game", but I wonder....in the interviews I've read, he seems pretty ticked off heading into this fight, calling Jon Jones "Judas", Greg Jackson "a backstabber", and saying that he feels like the UFC itself is trying to keep him from being champ.

Look at Donald Cerrone vs Nate Diaz or Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy for examples of what can happen if you go into a fight without your head on straight. Is Rashad traveling down the same path?

Everyone is talking about how Rashad's edge against Jones may be in the "mental game", but I wonder....in the interviews I've read, he seems pretty ticked off heading into this fight, calling Jon Jones "Judas", Greg Jackson "a backstabber", and saying that he feels like the UFC itself is trying to keep him from being champ.

Look at Donald Cerrone vs Nate Diaz or Marcus Davis vs Dan Hardy for examples of what can happen if you go into a fight without your head on straight. Is Rashad traveling down the same path?

When you say everyone, do you mean me, or have other people been saying the same thing? In other words, did someone that matters say the same thing I said?

By your description of Evans, he sounds like he suffers from a persecution complex. Giving you the benefit of the doubt for the moment, unless there's a whole lot of anger wrapped up in that perception, it doesn't seem like a winning mental strategy.

When I say "everyone", I mean myself and the four guys at my BJJ school who like to discuss this sort of thing, we agreed that Rashad either has an ace up his sleeve or is putting up one of the best fronts given how he keeps saying he'll break Jones's will, it's time for big brother to put a hurting on little brother, etc.

About the only edges we could give him were a "used to beat him up sparring", a la Chuck and Tito, and the fact that we've never seen Jones get in trouble and have to push through it, where Rashad has the experience of taking a whipping and coming back strong (example his title shot vs Forrest Griffin).

When you say everyone, do you mean me, or have other people been saying the same thing? In other words, did someone that matters say the same thing I said?

By your description of Evans, he sounds like he suffers from a persecution complex. Giving you the benefit of the doubt for the moment, unless there's a whole lot of anger wrapped up in that perception, it doesn't seem like a winning mental strategy.

Yes JNP alot of people, analysts, fans whatever you want to call them have that same thought process, That because of their training time together that Rashad may have Jons number, that because Rashad mentored Jones he knows the game plan, because he trained @ Jasksons that he knows what Jackson and Winkljohns going to tell Jones to do. I though Rashad was getting the better of the mental game until the UFC interview with Anik and the recent "the UFC doesnt want me to have the title." statement, Im starting to believe he's bringing TOO much emotion into the fight and it may gas him like it did ALA Miller. He did not look all that impressive against Phil Davis and seemed to struggle with his cardio late in the fight.