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Jeff Seidel: Math adds up to MSU beating Michigan

One key for Michigan will be protecting Devin Gardner against Michigan State’s blitzes. He’s sacked here last season by the Spartans’ Denicos Allen, who was just released by the Rams.
(Photo:
Julian H. Gonzalez/Detroit Free Press
)

Michigan State is going to run away with a 35-14 victory over Michigan on Saturday.

The Spartans will take control by doing what they do best: forcing turnovers. MSU has created 19 turnovers, best in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have a tendency to cough up the ball like they have the flu. Michigan has a minus-13 turnover margin, worst in the Big Ten.

On the other side, the Spartans will take care of the ball — they are plus-11 in turnover margin, best in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Michigan has forced just three turnovers, fewest in the Big Ten.

Add all of that up and it spells disaster for the Wolverines. To quote Michigan coach Brady Hoke: "Turnover margin in pro football, college football, high school football and peewee football, whatever football there is out there, is a big part of who wins and who loses."

The Spartans are going to shut down the Wolverines on third down — MSU ranks first in the Big Ten on third-down defense, allowing a 25.3% conversion rate.

The Spartans are going to control the clock and keep Michigan quarterback Devin Gardner on the sideline — the Spartans are first in the Big Ten in time of possession.

The Spartans are going to outplay the Wolverines, outtough them, outcoach them and outhit them.

"I think we have a lot of guys who are mentally strong as well," MSU quarterback Connor Cook said. "I think mental toughness overrides physical toughness at times. I think that's what the coaches do in molding us as great football players."

But U-M could win if ...

The great thing about sports is that upsets happen all the time.

So what would Michigan have to do to pull the upset, or at least make it a game?

If Cook woke up Saturday morning with chicken pox, well, that would be good for Michigan.

But let's try to deal in reality.

More than anything, Gardner has to start hot, which is a distinct possibility. He has completed 78.6% of his passes in the first quarter this season, which ranks fourth in the NCAA.

It is crucial for Michigan to take an early lead, because when Gardner gets behind, he starts to press, take stupid chances and turn the ball over. This season, he has thrown eight interceptions and only six touchdowns.

To win this game, Gardner has to play mistake-free, and he needs to bust some long runs.

Quick dose of reality: Gardner is averaging 21.3 yards per game on the ground, which is down significantly from last year (40.2).

For the Wolverines to win, Devin Funchess would need to have one of the best games of his career, getting deep and attacking the Spartans' safeties, which has been a vulnerability. Funchess would need to catch about three TD passes, like he did against Appalachian State. He would need more than 150 yards receiving, like he did against Minnesota in 2013, and he would need about nine catches, like he did at Notre Dame.

For the Wolverines, the secret will be getting into the red zone. They have the best red-zone offense in the league, converting 16 of 17 attempts. And the Spartans' defense is susceptible in the red zone, tied for the ninth worst in the Big Ten.

To beat MSU, Michigan's offensive line would have to grow up in a hurry and protect Gardner, stopping the Spartans' blitzes. But that will be extremely difficult because Michigan has allowed 15 sacks and the Spartans have recorded 26.

More than anything, the Wolverines would have to control the line of scrimmage and shut down MSU's running game, which is possible. U-M ranks fourth in the nation, allowing 93.6 yards per game on the ground.

On defense, the Wolverines would have to try to confuse Cook, showing him one presnap look and then quickly changing out of it, hoping he makes a series of bad decisions. The Wolverines would have to make every tackle and not be called for any penalties. (Michigan has one of the most disciplined teams in the country when it comes to penalties.) And Cook would have to take two steps backward and play a horrible game.

Nah, on second thought

But that's not going to happen, because Michigan turns the ball over too much and rarely forces a turnover.

And because the Spartans have such an explosive offense (47 points per game), while Michigan finds it so hard to score (21.7 points per game).

I know it's a rivalry game (throw out the records, blah, blah, blah), and I know MSU's defense was better last year, and I know Michigan's defense is better this year, but MSU has an explosive offense (57 plays over 20 yards), and that offense will turn this into a rout.