Archive for the ‘austen williams’ tag

We do this every year. We argue about it every year. This is now the 8th version of this post (see the bottom for links/summary of the first seven). Thanks to long-since implemented service time changes the Rule-5 draft remains mitigated in importance. Yet here we are talking about it again, because we’re some of the few people out there who obsess about the edges of the 40-man roster, and who have meticulously studied our prospects for years and who don’t necessarily want to see the promising ones head out the door for a pittance. So here we are.

Next Monday at 8pm is the deadline to set 40-man rosters ahead of the Winter Meetings, which include the Rule-5 draft. With so many teams purposely tanking there’s going to be lots of usage of the draft this year. Lets take a look at who is eligible, who might get protected and make some predictions. I’ve got the Nats 40-man roster at 35 now, so there’s plenty of room to add names and do their off-season work.

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. Also incredibly useful is Roster Resource’s Nats Roster, which keeps track of options, rule-5 status and the like.

The quick Rule-5 rules for 2017; any college-aged draftee from 2014 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2013 or before is newly eligible this year, assuming they were at least 18 as of June 5th of that year.

Newly Eligible 2014 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Austen Williams: he has featured at High-A 3 years running, got moved to AA for the 2nd year running this year and still continues to struggle with that leap. I don’t think he’s a candidate to protect but is worth mentioning since he’s a long-serving starter in the organization. The team sent him to the AFL perhaps as an audition for consideration.

Tyler Mapes: the 30th round pick continues to be found gold for this team … but he missed the entire 2017 with an injury. Because of that he’s clearly not a rule-5 danger, but he could fit into the teams plans as a rotation member in AA or AAA this year. He has a career 2.68 ERA in the minors, vastly outperforming most of the rest of his draft class.

Taylor Gushue: the 2017 trade acquisition had a solid year in High-A, is a catcher in a system that needs them, and seems like a lock to add. He wasn’t set to the AFL for nothing.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Dale Carey, Matthew Page, Austin Davidson, Alec Keller, Robbie Dickey, Weston Davis, James Bourque. All these guys are still in the lower minors. Dickey represents the biggest investment ($400k signing bonus) and is one of the biggest disappointments from this draft.

Erick Fedde would have been the big name here to protect had he not already been added. Trea Turner was also a 2014 college draftee.

Drew Ward: he is literally the only 2013 HS draftee remaining in the system and is an interesting protection case. He had a great 2016 (making the All Star team and shining in High-A) but has not translated that success to AA. But, he’s only 22, and a 22-yr old struggling in AA isn’t that surprising. Question is; do you protect him? He’s blocked at the major league level by Anthony Rendon but that means little in a game where his value might be in trade versus production for the big league squad. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got protected.

Newly Eligible 2013 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Edwin Lora: SS who has progressed neatly one level at a time for 5 years. But he’s a career .238 hitter. We need a backup utility fielder and he fits the bill, but he doesn’t seem to be ready. I also don’t see him as a threat to get drafted.

Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B recently of the AFL who has shown some promise. He’s a lock to get protected based on his production and his presence in Arizona.

Luis Reyes, RHP who started 26 games for Potomac this year. He’s a bit wild, but he’s also a solid starter who projects to AA in 2018. Is that enough to be a draft threat? Maybe.

Anderson Franco, 3B: highly touted on prospect boards, but hit just .201 for low-A this year. Not a draft candidate but someone to watch/hope for a rebound 2018.

Not mentioned: many 2013 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Aldrem Corridor, Joshual Ramirez, Luis Vilorio, Oliver Ortiz, Francys Peguero. Honestly, I had not even heard of most of these guys and wouldn’t be surprised if I had their eligibility wrong. They’re mostly in the very low minors.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2013 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2012 and prior HS/IFAs.

Wander Suero: the 2010 IFA exploded onto the scene this year as the closer in AA and then AAA, posting a 1.79 ERA for the year and heading to the AFL. He was already added to the roster two weeks ago.

John Simms: I’ve always liked this guy; he’s now worked his way to AAA and made 8 starts there last year. He isn’t a big K/9 guy, perhaps is seen as an org arm, but he’s got a good pedigree (Rice) and has made it to the cusp of the majors. Is that enough to protect him? Probably not.

Spencer Kieboom: he struggled enough in 2016 to get DFA’d in early 2017 … but then he hit pretty well in AAA this year. Is that enough to get him back into the mix?

Dakota Bacus: he pitched pretty darn well in relief across High-A and AA this year, and was sent to AFL to get more innings. Is he an option to add? He didn’t have the numbers that Suero did, but perhaps the team thinks he could be an option out of the pen.

Kyle McGowin: an interesting case since he was sent to the AFL: he struggled badly in 2017, getting demoted to AA at one point and posting a 5.95 ERA for the year. I don’t think we’d shed a tear if he was drafted, but I don’t think he’s meriting a 40-man spot right now.

Joan Baez; power arms don’t grow on trees, and even though he was “only” in high-A this year he’s well known enough to perhaps merit protection.

2013 or before College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include David Masters, Isaac Ballou, Justin Thomas, Matthew DeRosier, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Brian Rauh, Ronald Pena, Robert Orlan, Steven Perez, Bryan Mejia, Osvaldo Abreu, Wirkin Estevez, Hector Silvestre, Jefry Rodriguez. Perhaps at some points in their careers some of these guys seemed like locks, but for now they all toil in the lower minors (for the most part) hoping to put themselves into contention.

MLFAs who are technically Rule-5 eligible: Yadiel Hernandez, Irving Falou, Greg Ross, Jaron Long, Jordan Mills. Long in particular has worked in AAA for three years now, but may be considered an org arm at this point. Ross looked promising for a while, but struggled badly in 2017.

So, who would I protect?

Wander Suero (already added)

Kelvin Gutierrez

Taylor Gushue

Drew Ward

Joan Baez

Who would I consider: Kieboom, Bacus. Maybe.

If they added these four additional guys they’d be at 39/40 on the roster, still leaving them immediate room for a FA signing or trade. But there’s more than a few names on our 40-man currently that could be cut (starting with Voth, Gott, Bautista). So we could see some manouvering this off-season.

Did I miss anyone? this is kind of tough analysis without a massive white board with every name in the organization listed … something none of us have time to do for free.

So, that’s an interesting bunch. We generally see AFL participants named for one of several reasons:

They were hurt and need more ABs/Innings on the year.

They’re uber prospects from the mid-minors who the team wants to see challenged as a “finishing school” kind of situation.

They’re rule-5 eligible in November and the team wants to make a decision on whether or not they’re worth protecting.

The AFL roster is short a catcher, pitcher or middle infielder so the team has to pony up one to fill the roster.

They’re working on something new … a new pitch, switch hitting, etc.

So, given those rules, lets do quick judgements on why these particular players are playing in Arizona.

Robles: Reason #2: he’s the team’s undisputed #1 prospect; he’s heading to AFL as a finishing school challenge ahead of him likely working his way into a 2018 call-up.

Bacus: Reason #1 and perhaps Reason #3 as well: Bacus missed two months this year on the D/L, but also took a big step forward performance-wise. He’s been Rule-5 eligible for two years now, but suddenly he’s succeeding at a high enough level that the team may be thinking about protecting him.

Cordero: #3 primarily: Cordero was outrighted in August and has had a pretty ugly 2017 season stat-wise. But he was on a 40-man roster prior to his acquisition for a reason, and the team may want to see a bit more of him before deciding whether to protect him again.

McGowin: Reason #1, maybe #5: McGowin missed about two months with two different D/L stints … and was demoted twice this year. Is the team looking to convert him to relief? I don’t think he’s a rule-5 jeopardy even though he’s eligible for the 2nd time.

Williams: #3 mostly; Williams is Rule-5 eligible for the first time but struggled in AA for the second year running. He did miss some time this year, but this seems more like a “challenge” AFL placement.

Gushue: #3 again, perhaps #4: Gushue is probably under advisement for rule-5 protection by virtue of the fact that he’s a Catcher and he can hit, even if he’s repeating High-A again in 2017. You can never have too many catchers on the roster for depth, and with the team likely parting ways with Jose Lobaton we’ll need more on the roster. Catchers on AFL rosters are also in short supply, so there’s a double reason here too.

Gutierrez: #1 primarily: he’s shown promise at the plate 3 years running at successive levels, but got hurt and missed a chunk of time after making the Carolina league all-star team. He’ll get some catch up ABs in Arizona and the team will get to see him challenged too (he’s never been above High-A).

We’re all curious to see how Robles fares against top-end minor league competition of course. But who among the rest of these guys is even considered a top end “prospect” in our system? The next closest thing to a “top 10” guy is Gutierrez, who has been in the 8-12 range on the last few rankings. Gushue was ranked 25th on MLBpipeline.com’s mid-season ranking; the rest of these guys are not even on the top 30. So, not a great crop of talent necessarily but a slew of guys who the team may want to add at the fringes of the roster later on.

As I mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I was away from computer all weekend so I missed the opportunity to comment on all the major things that went down.

So this is a clearing house of thoughts.

Joe Ross to undergo Tommy John; I don’t think anyone saw this coming, but then again nobody saw it coming with Stephen Strasburg either. With Stras it seemed to be a one-pitch injury. Ross’ pitch f/x data for his last start indicated that he was definitely off his typical velocity; compare his 90mph average on July 9th to his July 4th start, where he started routinely in the 93-94 range, before dropping off a cliff towards the end of his outing. If I had to guess, I’d guess he might have injured his arm somewhere in the 7th inning or so of his July 4th start and tried to give it a go the next outing before his teammate Max Scherzer spotted his distress. Ross finishes a struggle of a 2017 season where he got an amazing 10.55 runs per 27 outs of support; in 6 of his 13 starts the team scored more than 10 runs for him. He clearly had settled down from early season issues, throwing four consecutive quality starts and again looking like perhaps the best #5 starter in the league. Now he’s out until the all star break of next year at best, likely until September of 2018. He’s only 24, mind you, but this injury comes at a tough time for him; he’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time after the 2018 season, one in which he may only make a handful of starts. So this will cost Ross millions of dollars…. and will save the Nats at a time when they may be looking to save pennies for Bryce Harper.

Looking at the rotation for 2018; as we’ll soon find out (read on), there’s not a whole lotta help on the farm, so the Nats are probably shopping for starters this coming off-season, unless you guys think Erick Fedde will be ready for prime time next April.

In the meantime, it leads to a sticky situation in the near term yet again for this team. They traded away all their near-to-the-majors starting depth last off season, and have had to give starts already this season to three non-rotation guys (Jacob Turner, A.J. Cole and the ill-fated Jeremy Guthrie start early on). Well, now their starting depth in the minors is even weaker; A.J. Cole’s AAA era this year is a nifty 6.00 and the only other 40-man roster starter (Austin Voth) is even worse; he’s pitched to a 6.38 ERA in Syracuse this year and is either doing a rehab assignment or is being outright demoted to Harrisburg as we speak.

So instead of going with an internal option, the brain trust is enlisting the help of MLFA Edwin Jackson, who eternally owes Mike Rizzo a bottle of champagne for NOT offering him a qualifying offer when he became a FA after his run-of-the-mill 2012 season for us. The lack of the QO enabled Jackson to get a 4 year deal he never would have gotten otherwise, but cost the Nats a pick that they probably could have used … heck a junior college starter drafted towards the end of the first round in 2013 … probably would have been Sean Manaea, currently dominating for the same Oakland As who just sent us our next wave of bullpen reinforcements (more on that in a moment). But I digress.

We plan on giving Edwin Jackson another shot in the majors, despite his giving up 11 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for Baltimore earlier this year, despite his pitching to a 5.89 ERA in San Diego last year (where everybody looks like a Cy Young winner). I’ll say this: if the Nats can score in double digits for Jackson the same way they did for Ross … maybe it won’t matter than his ERA sits in the 6-7 range. It’ll look like a slow-pitch softball game.

But what choice do the Nats have? Erick Fedde you say? Have you seen his inconsistency in Syracuse? Its like the Nats didn’t learn from jerking Tanner Roark around a couple years ago; Starting pitchers are creatures of habit. They eat the same meal 2 hours before they pitch, they do the same running and lifting sessions in-between outings. If you have a successful starter, you don’t suddenly decide he’s a middle reliever. So it should be of no surprise that Fedde’s all over the road right now.

Jacob Turner? Well, he’ll be around too; I’m guessing he’s option 1-B to Jackson as 1-A. But Turner is no savior; you don’t get DFA’d and pass through waivers and accept an outright to AAA as a pitching prospect in the modern game unless the rest of the league really, really doesn’t like you. To say there’s a lack of quality starting pitching depth in the league right now is kind of an understatement.

Who else is starting for this team in the upper minors? Here’s the rest of the Syracuse rotation right now: Sean O’Sullivan, Jared Long, Greg Ross. Her’es their current AAA ERAs respectively: 4.40, 5.29, 6.34. Here’s how we acquired them, again respectively: MLFA in May of this year, MLFA in April of last year, and again MLFA in April of last year. So three org guys just eating up AAA innings, none of which are pitching especially well. No wonder Luke Erickson over at www.nationalsprospects.com has given up tracking the AAA team this year.

Maybe we drop down to AA: how’s that look? Bleak. Taylor Hill is already demoted once this year and is closer to a release than a promotion. Austen Williams: 6.85 ERA. Matthew Crownover is pushing a 5.00 ERA. They just got Wirkin Estevez off the D/L: he’s only got 26 innings of 4.10 ERA pitching above A-Ball. Lastly there’s John Simms, the “Ace” of Harrisburg’s staff who is pitching there for the *fourth* successive season. He’s got solid numbers: 4-6 with a 3.57 ERA but middling K/9 rates and some hittability; would you rather roll the dice on a grizzled veteran with more than 1700 innings on his MLB resume or go with a guy who you refuse to promote even to AAA despite the same decently solid numbers year over year? I think you have your answer.

So lets see how it goes. Jackson’s Syracuse numbers for 2017 are pretty nifty; 20 innings, 9 hits, 22 ks. Oh and 10 walks; we’ll just say that last part a little more quietly and focus on the positive. As I noted in the comments section in another blog … we’re about to see just what the difference is between AAA and the majors.

Meanwhile, after more and more ridiculousness in the late-innings of games (including a 7 run collapse late last week that nearly blew a 10-run cushion), the Nats finally made their move to bolster the bullpen (and hopefully grease the skids for a wholesale shedding of deadweight off the 40-man roster by everyone involved in the latest debacle). Rizzo called up his best buddy Billy Beane and pulled off what I think is a pretty good trade:

Acquire: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madsen: both mid-30s one inning guys with excellent numbers this year and neither being one-year rentals.

Give up: Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo and Sheldon Neuse

Treinen just needs a mental D/L trip; there’s nothing appreciably different with his stuff from last year (when he was good) to this year (when he has been awful). Classic change of scenery guy who returns to his drafting team and probably has a solid rest-of-2017. Luzardo and Neuse are good prospects but young and several years away; perfect for what Oakland wants. I’m bummed they’re leaving (especially Luzardo, who by all accounts has come all the way back from TJ surgery and had looked solid in his early GCL outings). Prior to 2017, Neuse was generally about our 8th best prospect and Luzardo 12th or so. Both have improved their rankings with their play this year, so this may look more foolish if Luzardo becomes a #2 starter in a few years. But as they say, you have to give up stuff to get stuff.

As others noted, the Nats managed to get these two guys without giving up any of their top ranked prospects (Robles, Soto, Fedde, Kieboom), which is a huge win.

I’d like to note (using this picture as reference) that Matt Albers is officially listed as 6’1″, 225lbs. photo via outsidepitchmlb.com

A mid-April mailbag from Nats MLB.com beat reporter Jamal Collier. Probably spurred on by these ugly numbers: 6.00, 6.43, 3.18, 6.75, 10.80, 8.10, and 11.57. Those are the current (as of 4/18/17) ERAs of the seven “original” bullpen members of your 2017 Nationals. The only one under 6 is Koda Glover, and for completion I should add that NRI Matt Albers has managed to throw 3 clean innings to help keep the bullpen ERA down.

You may be saying to yourself, “Man, the Nats bullpen has been the worst in the majors!” You’re close, but wrong. There are several teams by any measure that have actually been worse than Washington, believe it or not. By ERA, there are 3 worse teams. By fWAR, there are 2 worse teams. And by FIP there’s one bullpen worse than ours. In every case, Philadelphia’s bullpen has been even worse. So we have that going for us.

Lets get to the question. As always, I answer the question before reading Collier’s answer and sometimes edit questions for clarity.

Q: Why is the bullpen struggling?

A: Because its mid-April, because everything is Small Sample Sizes (SSS), because the Nats struck lightening in a bottle in 2016 while completely remaking their bullpen on the fly but may have struck out this year. Here’s the opening day roster bullpens over the last few years to highlight just how much turnover we’ve had:

2013: Soriano, Storen, Clippard, Mattheus, Stammen, Rodriguez, Duke

2014: Soriano, Clippard, Storen, Stammen, Blevins, Barrett, Detwiler

2015: Storen, Janssen, Stammen, Thornton*, Cedeno*, Barrett, Roark

2016: Papelbon, Treinen, Kelley, Belisle, Perez*, Rivero*, Petit

2017: Treinen, Kelley, Glover, Blanton, Solis*, Romero*, Perez*

Meaning:

From 2013->2014: 4 holdovers, 3 new guys

From 2014->2015: 3 holdovers, 4 new guys.

From 2015->2016: 0 holdovers, 7 new guys

From 2016->2017: 3 holdovers, 4 new guys

Frankly, the fact that a 100% remade bullpen was so successful last year was amazing. Perhaps now we’re seeing the downside of this lack of consistency.

I trust most of the guys in the 2017 bullpen, based on prior history. I think I know what to expect out of Treinen, Kelley, Glover, Blanton, Solis and Perez. Romero we all knew is/was a lottery ticket, and he may be DFA fodder soon. Albers the NRI could be this year’s Todd Coffey; a successful middle reliever who we got for peanuts. I think we just need some time.

That being said, lets look role by role and ask ourselves if we think this year’s bullpen is “better” than last.

Will Treinen (as closer) be better than Papelbon? I like his chances.

Will Kelley repeat his success of 2016? No reason not to think so

Will Glover give the team what Treinen did last year? I’m confident.

Is Blanton better than Belisle? Undoubtedly yes.

Can Solis match Rivero’s lefty production? Seems like it based on what he did last year

Is Perez the same guy he was last year? Probably.

Can Romero be as bad as Petit was last year? Yeah, he probably could.

Maybe you don’t agree with me on these quick takes … but on a general level the message is this: the bullpen this year should be just as good as last year’s.

Collier delves into FIP to find some unluckiness, also notes its SSS. And he notes that its a MLB-wide trend; bullpens are awful everywhere for some reason this year.

Q: How much rope does Blake have left? Is he staying put only because the other options have also struggled?

A: See above: its April 18th. Treinen has 4 save opportunities, blew one (where he gave up just one hit to blow it), but his most recent outing was an ugly one necessitating some Bryce Harper heroics. My choice to close would have been Shawn Kelley honestly; more experience, more swing and miss stuff, more proven capabilities of getting guys out on both sides of the plate. But the team chose otherwise, mostly due to Kelley’s twice-repaired elbow and the need to go back to back nights. Ask yourself; how often do we need a closer to go back to back nights? Lets look at last year’s closer Mark Melancon and count how many times he pitched in back to back games for the entirety of 2016: I counted 16 times in 75 appearances. And in most of those cases, he then got several days off. I just can’t believe Kelley’s arm is SO FRAGILE that he can’t throw back to back nights.

Do you know how many times Kelley threw on back-to-back days in 2016? Take a guess. 13 times. So 13 times last year (or nearly as many as the closer Melancon) Kelley threw on back to back days, but suddenly in 2017 he’s too fragile to depend on to throw back to backs as the closer.

To get back to the question; I’m sure Glover will be closing sooner or later. It was always looking that way. How much rope does Treinen have? Probably at least til mid May.

Collier says its early, that while Treinen has had some issues there’s no change coming anytime soon.

Q: Who do you see as potential options in the Minors in case the current bullpen members don’t figure things out and changes need to be made?

A: Great question. When Albers got called and added to the active roster, it was a severe indictment of all remaining 40-man roster relievers. That’s be Rafael Martin, Trevor Gott, Austin Adams, and to a lesser extent Jimmy Cordero and Matt Grace. The first three guys are right handed options, all with MLB experience, all passed over for a guy the team signed for nothing. That tells me that the team has little to no trust in any of those three guys at the major league level right now. So who might the team call upon? Here’s some thoughts:

From AAA: Adams is the only guy having a halfway decent season thus far; in 7 2/3rds innings he’s given up just 1 hit (!), walked 6, struck out 12. The team just re-signed Joe Nathan but I sincerely hope he’s not a legitimate option.

From AA; the 5 best guys by WHIP are … the five starters. So that’s good I guess. Braulio Lara was an offseason MLFA with a lot of AAA time; he’s got decent AA stats right now and could be an option to move up, but not straight to the majors for me. Then there’s Ryan Brinley, who is sharing in closing duties but is young and is a total lottery ticket; a 27th rounder from 2015 who is a shock to have even made it this far. 40-man member Cordero is down here… and has a 19.62 ERA right now. Nice.

From XST: there’s three potentially interesting names that could make sense for the bullpen: Derek Eitel, John Lannan, and Josh Outman. Eitel had solid AAA numbers last year and has been around for a while (age 29); he might be an option to look for. Outman has parts of 7 years MLB experience, some starting, some relieving and could be an option. Lastly, the new side-slinger Lannan could be a back-fill for an under-performing Loogie.

I guess the other option would be to take a starter from AAA or AA and bring him up in relief. But the AAA starters are really struggling right now. Hill is getting bombed, Voth has given up 15 hits in just 6 1/3 innings, Cole walked 5 guys in his first start, and Turner has a 1.73 whip through 2 turns. And none of these guys are really known for their blazing fastballs; they’re all command and control starters. The AA starters look better than the AAA starters, but a couple of them strategically have to stay as starters (namely Erick Fedde and Austen Williams, John Simms to a lesser extent). Jaron Long and Greg Ross are both MLFA signings who the team may not have as much invested in … perhaps they could be put into shorter relief modes and considered for bullpen spots. But that’s digging deep.

In other words … there’s not a lot of reinforcements that the team trusts right now. The MLB bullpen will be given plenty of rope to straighten themselves out.

Now that we’re basically through Prospect Ranking season, and now that the four full season rosters have been announced, here’s a fun little look at where all our “top” prospects are assigned to start out 2017. By “Top prospects” I basically mean anyone who has gotten more recent prospect rankings (so for example, Taylor Hill in Syracuse is not listed). Even an “honorable mention” in Sickel’s lists, which go nearly 40 deep. I have it organized not by general ranking, but by the level.

Also, Here’s a link to every Nats prospect ranking list I know of dating to 2004 along with their respective starting locations going back 3 years (the below table only has this year’s and last for comparison purposes).

Last Name

First Name

Position

2017 Starting Level

2016 Starting Level

Glover

Koda

RHP (reliever)

MLB

High A

Marmolejos

Jose

1B

MLB D/L

High A

Cole

A.J.

RHP

AAA

AAA

Voth

Austin

RHP

AAA

AAA

Severino

Pedro

C

AAA

AAA

Bautista

Rafael

OF (CF)

AAA

AA

Goodwin

Brian

OF (CF)

AAA

AAA

Skole

Matt

1B/3B

AAA

AAA

Fedde

Erick

RHP

AA

High A

Stevenson

Andrew

OF (CF)

AA

High A

Ward

Drew

3B

AA

High A

Abreu

Osvaldo

SS

AA

High A

Read

Raudy

C

AA

High A

Williams

Austen

RHP

AA

AA

Johansen

Jake

RHP (reliever)

AA

High A

Simms

John

RHP

AA

AA

Cordero

Jimmy

RHP (reliever)

AA

AA

Self

Derek

RHP (reliever)

AA

High A

Perez

Stephen

SS

AA

AA

Kieboom

Spencer

C

AA

AA

Robles

Victor

OF (CF)

High-A

Low A

Gutierrez

Kelvin

3B

High-A

Low A

Baez

Joan

RHP (Starter)

High-A

Low A

Wiseman

Rhett

OF (corner)

High-A

Low A

Agustin

Telmito

OF

High-A

Low A

Lora

Edwin

SS

High-A

Low A

Crownover

Matthew

LHP (Starter

High-A

Low A

Sagdal

Ian

Util

High-A

Low A

Davidson

Austin

Inf

High-A

High A

Reyes

Luis

RHP

High-A

High A

Rodriguez

Jefry

RHP

High-A

Low A

Bacus

Dakoda

RHP (reliever)

High-A

AA

Rivera Jr.

Mariano

RHP (reliever)

High-A

Low A

Soto

Juan

OF (corner)

Low-A

GCL

Kieboom

Carter

SS

Low-A

GCL

Neuse

Sheldon

3B

Low-A

Short A

Franco

Anderson

3B

Low-A

GCL

Perkins

Blake

OF (CF)

Low-A

Short A

Reetz

Jakson

C

Low-A

Low A

Watson

Tyler

LHP

Low-A

Short A

Banks

Nick

OF (Corner)

Low-A

Short A

Johnson

Daniel

OF (Corner)

Low-A

Short A

Noll

Jake

2B

Low-A

GCL

Barrera

Tres

C

Low-A

Short A

Garcia

Luis

SS

XST

DSL

Luzardo

Jesus

LHP (Starter

XST

XST

Antuna

Yasel

SS

XST

DSL

Upshaw

Armond

OF (CF)

XST

GCL

Lee

Andrew

LHP (reliever)

XST

Low A

Pimentel

Davinson

C

XST

GCL

Fuentes

Steven

RHP

XST

Short A

Dickey

Robbie

RHP

XST

Low A

Mota

Israel

OF

XST

GCL

Gunter

Cody

3B (now a RPH)

XST

Low A

Ballou

Isaac

OF (Corner)

XST

AA

Benincasa

Robert

RHP (reliever)

XST

AA

Sanchez

Jose

?

DSL?

DSL

Thoughts by Level:

MLB: Koda Glover‘s amazing 2016 rise from High-A to the majors is well documented. Now it looks like he may get closing chances sooner than later. For procedural reasons Jose Marmolejos has to be on the major league D/L, but you’d have to think he goes to AA when he’s off of it. His injury, in case you were wondering, is a “Left Forearm Strain” and he should be eligible to come off the 60-day D/L on or about April 24th.

AAA: Of the 6 “prospects” in AAA … 5 of them were there last year. Only Rafael Bautista is making “progress” into the upper-most level of our minors. All six are on the 40-man and all 6 should get call-ups at some point this year (even if its 9/1 for someone like Bautista). We’ve talked these guys to death really; no real surprises on this list.

AA: Lots of guys on the AA roster who have gotten mentions in the past. About half of them are Nats draftees making expected progress from High-A -> AA (Fedde, Stevenson, Ward, Abreu, Read). There’s 5 guys who are seemingly stalled at AA for the moment: Williams, Simms, Cordero, Perez and Kieboom all started last year at AA. And then there’s the two oddities in terms of assignments: Johansen (as previously discussed) and Self (who is now in AA for the fourth season).

High-A: 10 of the 13 guys here are making year-over-year expected progress from Low-A. Two more (Davidson and Reyes) are repeating the level, and then there’s Bacus, who started last year in AA and seems to be moving backwards.

Low-A: 6 guys making expected Short->Low-A jumps, another 4 making the more impressive GCL->Low-A jump. Only Reetz languishing here, repeating Low-A and looking more and more like a draft disappointment. And its reflected in his system rankings; upon his drafting he was back of the top 10 … now he’s 18-20 range, if ranked at all.

XST: contains the expected mix of guys coming off injury and youngsters who were in either the GCL or the DSL last year and were not really ever candidates for Hagerstown. Some of these guys likely get assigned to full-season squads as injuries occur, others will slot into short-season squads in a couple of months. Biggest names here are Luis Garcia, Jesus Luzardo, Yasel Antuna, and Jose Sanchez (who might still be in the DSL as a 2016 IFA signee).

And don’t forget the invaluable work of SpringfieldFan maintaining the Nats Big Board, now in its 12th season!

Note: in the below list, “missing” means that the player was on a 2016 roster, is still listed as active but is not found anywhere on a 2017 full-season roster as expected. Most are still sitting in Extended Spring Training (abbreviated XST throughout) with the intent of getting assigned as injuries or releases occur, but some may be release candidates. Other abbreviations I use often: MLFA == Minor League Free Agent, OOO = Out of the Organization.

Quick Note: just prior to publishing word came out (h/t as always to Mr. Erickson) that a shake-up has already occurred in Harrisburg’s rotation. I’ll strike-out existing text and replace it with updated.

AA/Harrisburg 2017:

starters: Fedde, Valdez, AWilliams, GRoss, Arias, Blackmar

spot starts/swingman: Long, Simms

bullpen: Brinley, Cordero, Johansen, Lara*, Self, Suero

dl/restricted: NLee*, Mapes, ARobinson

cut/released/FAs from 2016 (all FAs): Brady, Lively, Runion

missing from 2016: JDMartin, Blackmar, Benincasa, Rauh

Discussion

There’s some familiarity with this staff from the end of 2016: seven of the guys on this staff were there last September. The Nats continue their trend of having their high profile players aim for mid-season promotions as opposed to the beginning of the season: Erick Fedde only had 5 AA starts last year but by all accounts from his spring performance is ready to test himself at least at AAA if not doing a Jordan Zimmermann like jump straight from AA->Majors.

Rotation discussion: There’s more “starters” than there are spots; Phillips Valdez got 16 so-so starts in AA last year and will look to improve. Austen Williams is probably getting his last shot to start before getting pushed to the bullpen. Local guy Greg Ross (from Baltimore, went to Frostburg State) was a 2016 MLFA pickup who dominated … i’m kind of curious to see how how does in a full season. MLFA signing Gabriel Arias has a ton of AAA time and may be over-qualified for this rotation, and got sent to the D/L just before season’s start. He’s been replaced by 2016 rotation member Mark Blackmar, who re-signed to extend his MLFA deal in the off-season. I’ve listed both Jaron Long and John Simms as “spot starters” for now, though I think both deserve a shot at starting on a regular basis. We’ll see if they switch places with some of the more shaky starters here. 30th round draftee Tyler Mapes starts on the D/L after a great season at AA last year; perhaps he gets pushed to AAA when he comes off the D/L.

In the bullpen, some surprises. Why is 40-man roster member Jimmy Cordero in AA? How did top 2013 draft pick Jake Johansen make the AA squad despite never succeeding anywhere outside of Low-A? Derek Self will be spending his fourth successive year at Harrisburg; there’s more than 40 arms sitting in XST right now; does it make sense to have a guy who clearly isn’t rising up taking a full-season roster spot at this point? Off-season MLFA Braulio Lara in AA after years in AAA? Am I being too critical here? It just seems like some curious picks for our AA squad.

Listed as “Missing” include the return of J.D. Martin as a knuckleballer; he’ll remain in XST until a spot opens up in AA or AAA. 2016 MLFA signing Mark Blackmar ended the year in AA but didn’t make the team; i’m guessing they’re trying to figure out how he fits in after dominating High-A but struggling in AA. Lastly two guys who I have as “release candidates” are not assigned but not yet cut in long time Nats farm-hands Robert Benincasa and Brian Rauh.

Who am I focusing on: Fedde obviously. Ross and Simms intrigue me, as does Mapes. Brinley was *so good* in Potomac; really want to see him succeed in AA as a 27th rounder. Want to see what we have in Cordero.

Fedde probably #1 arm in the system … and its tough after that. Photo via minorleagueball.com

Every year, Luke Erickson over at NationalsProspects.com does a crowd-sourced ranking of the Top 10 “bats” and “arms” in the Nats farm system (link to the “Arms” post)

This year, I had such a hard time deciding upon my top 10 arms for Luke’s survey that I thought it would be worth doing my own post on the subject, temporarily stealing Luke’s idea. I think its an interesting time for our farm system arm development; we’ve spent the off-season trading away a significant amount of arm depth, and what we have left made it kind of tough for me to even find 10 “arms” that were worth ranking. Furthermore, how do you really compare starters and relievers? Isn’t a mediocre starter prospect who has reached AAA better than a high-end reliever prospect in the lower minors? Is our best reliever prospect (Koda Glover) a “better” or “worse” prospect than a really good-looking starter who is in A-Ball (like a Tyler Watson?) How do you compare a good starter prospect in A ball with what looks like an org-arm in AAA? Its potential versus reality, ceiling versus floor. In the end, you have to make kind of a rolling judgement call to put PlayerA above PlayerB … leading to excellent arguments in the comments section.

So, taking these thoughts into account, here’s my top 10 ranked Arms, splitting guys into starters and relievers. My rules: a “starter” is someone who was “predominantly” a starter this year. A reliever is someone who, well, was a reliever and wasn’t getting starts unless there was some weird situation going on. And since the lowest levels generally were doing tandem starting, if you were clearly a “pitch every 5th day” guy even if you weren’t starting, then i’m calling you a starter for these purposes. This only comes into play with a couple of guys who were in and out of rotations this year; i’ve put them into the Relievers section.

My Nats top 10 Starters:

1. Erick Fedde: He’s clearly come back from TJ, dominated for most of 2016, and probably debuts in the later half of 2017.

(1a. A.J. Cole, if you still think he’s got prospect status. He exhausted his rookie status by service time in 2016 … but has yet to reach 50 IP in the majors, so Baseball America qualifies him as a prospect still. I don’t view him as a prospect anymore; to me he’s a 6th starter/long-man candidate for 2017).

2. Austin Voth: he’s more than earned it, has nothing to prove in AAA, and frankly should have gotten a 40-man addition last September and gotten innings instead of Mat Latos.

3. Tyler Watson: had a great season competing against guys well older than him; could be looking at a jump to high-A in 2017 and he’s yet to turn 20. I like his potential.

4. Weston Davis: I’m going with Davis over the more highly regarded (on prospect lists) Baez because of a slightly cleaner stat line. Davis had a nice 2.67 ERA in Short-A as a 20-yr old.

5. Joan Baez: Full year starting in Low-A as a 21-yr old, good K/9 numbers, some wildness. A step-up to High-A will clear the waters on him.

6. Matthew Crownover: great in Low-A, struggled in High-A. Should be in the Potomac rotation for 2017, may turn into a useful lefty reliever if he can’t maintain stats as a starter.

7. Jesus Luzardo: entirely based on pre-draft reputation; hopefully he comes back strong, but he’s several years away from even doing what Watson is doing.

8. Tyler Mapes: the fact that a 30th round draft pick is on this list is, well, the obvious evidence of the current thin-ness of our pitching depth. I love what Mapes has done, don’t get me wrong, but does anyone really expect him to become an impact player in the majors?

9. McKenzie Mills: I could see Mills a bit higher here, but honestly anyone in the 6-10 rank here could be argued to be higher or lower.

10. Andrew Lee: solid for Hagerstown before hitting the D/L. His spot here is assuming he didn’t blow out his rotator cuff or something that affects him longer term.

Honorable Mentions: Kyle McGowin, Yonathan Ramirez, Carlos Acevedo, Jaron Long, Austen Williams, Jefry Rodriguez. I could probably see arguments for Ramirez above perhaps Lee or Mills, but barely. I don’t really bother looking at GCL or DSL guys, so if you want to argue that someone who got 40 innings of complex ball is better than someone who put up stats in an A-ball league … well i’m going to argue with you :-).

So, clearly there’s a huge gap between the AAA-calibre guys at the top and Watson, both in terms of service time and in career minor league achievement. Our trades have resulted in this gap. There also seems to be a pretty significant potential gap right after Baez; you go from prospect to lottery tickets and org-guys pretty quickly it seems. Prior to these trades, I would likely have had Giolito 1, Lopez 2, Dunning right after Voth and perhaps Avila in discussions for being at the #10 spot. Still, that’s half of your best starter prospects gone in a couple of weeks.

Nats top 10 Relievers; these are going to be more heavily aligned towards guys who are near the top of the system, for obvious reasons. If you’re in A-ball and already a reliever … you’re in trouble unless you’re striking guys out at 12 K/9 clip … and we seem to have a habit of trading those guys (Hearn, Sanchez).

1. Koda Glover: for obvious reasons. Despite how much we’ve talked about him this year, he’s only got 19 MLB innings and still has rookie status by service time. We were mostly mystified by his drop-off of talent, until learning that he tore his hip labrum. I, like many others, like him for a future closer. Grow ’em, don’t buy ’em.

3. Bryan Harper: he was clearly moving himself ahead of other lefty options in AAA before getting hurt; lets hope he recovers from TJ and puts himself back on the map.

4. Jimmy Cordero: pretty solid AA numbers for two seasons running; i’d like to see him in AAA to see if he’s a bullpen option in the mold of an Aaron Barrett/Craig Stammen role.

5. Matt Grace: may be on the downslope of his Nats career, given that he wasn’t depended upon in 2016 and the Nats felt the need to flip a future Hall of Fame prospect to acquire a 5-week loogy rental. But he’s still an effective AAA reliever, which the rest of the guys below him cannot say.

6. Trevor Gott: our return bounty for Yunel Escobar was relatively effective for AAA this year, had good MLB numbers, but is anyone counting on him competing for the 2017 MLB bullpen? He and Grace are my “first two guys to go” off the 40-man if we need room right now.

7. Andrew Robinson: this MLFA signing put up great AA numbers and seems to be sticking around; I think he competes for the AAA bullpen.
8. Wander Suero: Another guy who put up nice AA numbers for the team this year as a RH middle reliever. He’s a bit old (25) and has been around the system forever (IFA signing in 2010), but should feature in AA or AAA this year.
9. Ryan Brinley: others have him higher based on his High-A dominance; he’s another Tyler Mapes-esque draft success story, a 2015 27th rounder who has rocketed up the system. I’d like to see what he can do in AA in 2017.
10. John Simms: another one of the Nats great 11th round picks, he really may be a starter, but for now he’s here. If he was being counted as a starter he’d probably be around the same ranking in the above list.

More obscure stats on players are sometimes found at places like thebaseballcube.com, perfectgame.org, their college websites, twitter accounts for the players, and good old fashioned deep-dive googling.

Round 1: Erick Fedde RHP (starter) COL jr from UNLV. 8-5 with a 3.12 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) across 2 levels. 123/29 K/BB in 121 IP. 1.21 combined whip, 3.22 fip and .316 babip in Potomac. Fedde began the year in the Potomac rotation and struggled in his first 6-7 starts. Then something clicked; from late May through his eventual promotion to AA in early august, he threw 10 straight starts giving up 0 or 1 earned runs, driving his ERA down from somewhere in the 6.60 range in May to a sub 3.00 ERA for the year in High-A. His final Potomac start may have been his best: 10 strikeouts, 5 hits and 1 unearned run in 7 innings. In his limited time in AA, he had one blow-out but was other wise also solid (in his last start of the season he had 12 strikeouts in 6 innings). Fedde looks completely back to his first round projection form and may quickly add his name to the list of guys in AAA pushing for a promotion to the majors. Trending up.

Round 2: Andrew Suarez LHP (starter) COL jr from Miami (FL). Did not sign: 2nd round signee for San Francisco in 2015. Spent most of 2016 starting for SF’s AA team in Richmond and looked solid. He may need another year in AA.

Round 3: Jakson Reetz, C Norris HS (NE). Slashed .230/.346/.357 splitting time at C in Hagerstown. 79/38 K/BB, 4homers, 4SBs. Reetz’ first foray into full-season ball did not result in appreciably better results all around at the plate. He improve his slugging percentage with more XBH, but his average remains poor. 79 Ks in 283 ABs is a hefty percentage. This was his age 20 season, playing in Low-A, and there’s not a ton of competition for the High-A catcher job next year, so he likely moves on up, but i’m a bit down on him at this point. Perhaps unfairly. Truth is, he got a big bonus and the team will give him plenty of room to grow. Trending down.

Round 4: Robbie Dickey, RHP (reliever) from Blinn College (TX). 2-0, 3.48 ERA for two levels relieving. 26/18 K/BB in 20 2/3rds innings. 1.89 whip, 5.60 fip, .345 babip while in Hagerstown. Dickey started the season in Short-A, his third successive year in Auburn. This time though he forced his way up, featuring as a reliever now instead of a starter, giving up 1 hit in 8 innings and quickly getting pushed up to Hagerstown. Once there, he quickly got hurt and when he returned his control left him; he walked 15 but struck out 15 in 12 2/3 low-A innings. He now has 46 walks in 78 professional innings and we may begin wondering when he’s going to put things together. 2017 is a make-or-break season for Dickey; he’s going to be (believe it or not) rule-5 eligible after next season and he’s yet to come close to mastering Low-A. I’m guessing he’s in the Hagerstown bullpen and as an upper round pick will be given a few more chances before the team cuts bait. Trending down.

Round 5: Drew Van Orden RHP (starter) COL sr from Duke. Released 3/16/16. Now this kind of surprised me. No he wasn’t a dominant swing and miss guy in 2015 (47 Ks in 92 IP) but he gave the team a bunch of innings at a 3.61 ERA clip. I guess he’s a victim of the pitcher-heavy drafts of this time frame. He’s also a victim of being a low bonus, low investment senior sign.

Round 6: Austen Williams RHP (starter) COL jr from Texas State. Went 5-13 with a 5.45 ERA in 26 starts for High-A and AA. 78/48 K/BB in 140 1/3 innings, 1.74 whip, 5.00 fip and .339 babip while in AA. Williams was in the opening day AA rotation after a stellar 2015 but was demoted back to High-A after two months of AA struggles. Once back in High-A, he couldn’t repeat his 2015 success there and got hit hard. His Potomac ERA was 3 points higher this year than it was last year. His 2015 season put him on the prospect map (around 20th on Nats prospect lists) and his 2016 season has caused his name to vanish. Now what? I guess you start him back in AA again and hope that the 2nd time around is better. Trending down.

Round 7: Dale “D.K.” Carey OF (CF) COL sr from Miami (FL). Slashed .209/.341/.331 while playing all three OF positions for Potomac. 84/63 K/BB ratio in 326 ABs, 7 homers, 5 SBs. A ton of walks jacked up his OBP and helped off set his poor BA in High-A this year. Carey’s problem is that the OF spots are scarce the higher you go. He played along side the best hitting prospect in our system (Victor Robles) and 2015 2nd round pick Andrew Stevenson has already passed him by. He may be victim of a numbers game in 2017, all the more so since he was signed for a relative pittance as a senior. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get cut loose at the end of spring training 2017. Trending down.

Round 8: Jeff Gardner, LF COL sr from Louisville. Released 6/6/16. As predicted, Gardner failed to make Hagerstown and then failed to prove he could earn an Auburn job and was released once the 2016 signings came in.

Round 9: Austin Byler, 1B COL jr for Nevada (Reno). Did not sign: became an 11th round by Arizona in 2015. He ended 2016 with Arizona’s high-A Visalia team after serving a PED suspension that cost him the first two months of the season.

Round 10: Matthew Page, RF/1B COL sr from Oklahoma Baptist U. Slashed .267/.348/.419 while earning a promotion from Low-A to High-A. 99/53 K/BB in 415 ABs. 11 homers, 3 SBs. Yes that’s a lot of Ks. But Page is turning into a nice little pick up. He had an OPS above .800 and slugged 10 homers in 88 games for Hagerstown before earning a promotion to Potomac. Playing 1B exclusively this year (he was drafted as a RF) he really struggled power-wise once he got to High-A (just 3 XBH in 30 games), but he earned the promotion in the first place. I don’t think there’s anyone to push him off the position to start next year at Potomac … but he’s gotta rebound and show he can hit in High-A like he did in Low-A. Trending Steady.

Round 11: Weston Davis RHP (starter) Manatee HS (FL). Went 3-6 with a 2.67 ERA in 11 starts for Auburn. 33/11 K/BB in 54 IP, 0.93 whip, 3.07 fip, .236 babip. Davis missed all of 2015 after signing out of HS in 2014, was in the Auburn opening day rotation and stayed there the whole season. He turned 20 during the season but more than held his own against the older competition. He looks pretty promising after missing a whole year and barely pitching his draft year. My one nit is his K rate; just 33 in 54 IP. He should be in the Hagerstown rotation to start 2017. Trending Up.

Round 13: Austin Davidson, 3B COL jr from Pepperdine. Slashed a healthy .272/.377/.443 between Low- and High-A in 2016. 46/49 K/BB ratio in 316 ABs, 9 hrs and 5 SB. Davidson was stranded in XST to start the year then returned to Hagerstown in late April only to play sparingly until June. From there he played pretty consistently both for Hagerstown and then for Potomac (he got promoted in early July for the 2nd Half). He had solid numbers and a great OBP in both land a solid enough slugging even without a ton of homers. He also had more walks than strikeouts, which I believe is the first time I’ve seen that for any hitter profiled in these posts. His problem seems to be positional; he’s listed as a “DH” on Milb.com, was drafted as a 3B but played in the field sparingly this year (some 2B, some 3B). I’d guess he’s pegged for a 2B slot, but then that has him competing with the generic “middle infielder” type who is dotted all over these low-minors rosters. Nonetheless, he’s not going to get cut when he’s one of the few guys posting .800 OPS figures in the system, so i’m trending him up. I figure he’ll do the Potomac to Harrisburg thing in 2017 assuming he continues to be a tough out. Trending up.

Round 14: James Bourque RHP (starter) COL jr from Michigan. 5-6 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 games/13 starts for Hagerstown. 55/23 K/BB in 68ip. 1.53 whip, 4.89 fip, .327 babip. Bourque missed all of 2015 with injury and then hung around XST until early June. From there he featured in the Hagerstown rotation for the most part, but his role seemed to be “spot starter” instead of rotation guy. He didn’t have the best numbers, no two ways around it. Maybe it was rust. I’m guessing he’ll get another shot at the Hagerstown rotation in 2017 but may be a release candidate. Trending Down.

Round 15: Ryan Ripken 1B COL soph from Indian River State (FL). Slashed just .201/.241/.254 between Low-A and Short-A. 73/20 K/BB in 374 ABs, 3HR, 1SB. Ripken started the year in Hagerstown but hit just .190 and got dumped back to Short-A. He’s now got three pro years under his belt and is hitting just .205 for his career, mostly in short-season ball. Its hard to see him continuing to get chances even given his family pedigree. Trending down.

Round 17: Alec Keller CF COL sr from Princeton by way of Richmond VA and Freeman HS. Slashed .285/.338/.374 playing a full season (mostly in LF) for Potomac. 78/35 K/BB, 3homers, 14SB. Keller more or less replicated his High-A numbers posted in the 2nd half of 2015; solid average, not a ton of power. Keller’s issue is that the tryouts for the AA outfield are looking tough; he may be hard pressed to get a promotion in a corner OF spot without any power. I’m guessing he makes AA as a 4th outfielder in 2017. As I noted last year though, he’s performing great for a senior sign from an Ivy league school. Trending Steady.

Round 18: McKenzie Mills, LHP (starter), Sprayberry Senior HS (GA). 4-5, 3.71 ERA in 12 starts for Short-A. 46/28 K/BB in 53 1/3 innings, 1.33 whip, 4.03 fip, .269 babip. Mills was the #2 starter in Auburn to start the season … and was the #2 starter at the end of the season. He posted a solid season; not awe-inspiring but pretty good for a guy who doesn’t turn 21 until next month. He addressed the issues that plagued him in 2015 and his hits/inning figure looks great. I’d like to see how he does in full season ball and project him in the Hagerstown rotation in 2017. Trending Steady.

Round 20: Bryan Langlois, RF COL jr from Pepperdine: Apparently retired Jan 2015 (per the Big Board), but he doesn’t have an official transaction listed in MILB.com. He didn’t play for us after 2014 despite not being officially released.

Round 21: Connor Bach, LHP COL sr from Virginia Military Institute by way of Centreville HS in Clifton. Went 0-1 with a 7.30 ERA in 5 relief appearances in Low-A and then was released on 6/1/16. This one was another shocker for me; he was in Hagerstown’s rotation the whole of 2015 and was good; what happened to him in 2016? Miami picked him up 6 days after we released him but he was similarly bad for them and they cut him loose a month later. Such a strange set of circumstances.

Round 22: Daniel Salters, C COL soph from Dallas Baptist: did not sign: drafted by Cleveland in the 13th round of 2015 draft. He was in High-A and AA for Cleveland this year.

Round 30: Tyler Mapes RHP COL sr from Tulane U. (LA). went 12-10 with a 3.19 ERA for AA Harrisburg. 25 games/25 starts. 78/39 K/BB ratio in 155 innings. 1.25 whip, 4.22 fip, .283 babip. Mapes was the #2 starter in Harrisburg all year and continues to be a fantastic draft pickup for this team. Who would have thought a 30th rounder college senior who probably signed for a few thousand dollars would be on the brink of the AAA roster? He doesn’t have the best strikeout numbers, which may define a glass ceiling for him, but he should continue to matriculate to AAA next year. That being said, its crowded at the top, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back in AA. Trending up.

Round 31: Samuel Johns RHP COL 5S U. Evansville (IN). Released 1/12/16. What was surprising about this release was the timing; why not let him compete in spring training for a Hagerstown spot? The January release is an odd one.

The rest of the 2014 draft class was HS kids who were long shots to sign and a Juco kid in the 40th who already had a transfer agreement to a good baseball school; one more piece of evidence to perhaps shorten the draft to 35 or even 30 rounds? Here’s a quick summary.

Round 32: Elliott Cary: CF Clackamas HS (OR): did not sign: honored commitment to Oregon State. Started 24 games as a freshman but did not play in 2016 (injured?).
Round 33: Clay Casey: CF DeSoto Central HS (MS): did not sign: was initially set to attend Ole Miss, but then changed his mind and attended Northwest Mississippi CC to be draft eligible in 2015. He didn’t get drafted though, so he then enrolled at the U. of Houston. Update: things didn’t work out there, so he transferred to D2 Delta State University, where he had a successful 2017 season in what was his “junior” year.
Round 34: Evan Skoug: C Libertyville HS (IL): did not sign: honored commitment to TCU. At TCU he has been a starter since day 1 and was named Freshman All-American. As a sophomore he slashed .301/.390/.502 and was 2nd team all-conference. I’d say its safe to say he has made himself some money in College.
Round 35: Tommy Doyle RHP Flint Hill School in Oakton: did not sign: honored commitment to Virginia. At UVA, Doyle played an integral part in getting UVA out of the regional his freshman year but did little else for the team as UVA surprisingly won the CWS. As a sophomore, he had a 5.07 ERA all told as he was convered from mid-week starter to “closer” towards the end of the season. I’m guessing he’s back in the rotation for his junior year as the Cavaliers are a bit short on starters.
Round 36: John Henry Styles, LHP Episcopal HS (TX): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford. There, he’s had almost no playing time, getting 5 appearances as a freshman and just one as a sophomore.
Round 37: Quinn Brodey, LHP Loyola HS (CA): did not sign: honored commitment to Stanford. There he was a 2-way player as a freshman but moved to the OF as a sophomore, slashing .280/.302/.445 this year and being named All Pac-12.
Round 38: Stuart Fairchild RF Seattle Prep (WA): did not sign: honored commitment to Wake Forest. As a sophomore this year he started every game and slashed .293/.403/.470.
Round 39: Jon Littell, OF Stillwater HS (OK): did not sign: honored commitment to OK State. As a sophomore this year, he slashed .258/.332/.343.
Round 40: Jacob Hill LHP JUCO Orange Coast Coll. (CA): did not sign: transferred to U San Diego, then was drafted by Cleveland in the 32nd round of 2015 and also did not sign. He went back to San Diego for his senior year, only threw 8 innings in 2016 and was not drafted.

At this point just 7 of the 40 players are trending in what can inarguably be considered a positive fashion; 15 of the 28 players signed have already been cut loose and another 6 of them are heading that way. Is this destined to be a one-player draft? Who else besides Fedde is projecting as a major leaguer?

Discussion: only one surprise from the pre-Spring Training prediction for this team: Matt Belisle makes the team ahead of Trevor Gott. Otherwise everyone is in the roles they were acquired to hold. There was some question about whether Blake Treinen would get optioned early in the spring, but not now. The order of the starters wasn’t right: Ross is being treated like the 4th starter and Roark the 3rd, I guess.

It probably wasn’t too hard to predict 12 out of the 13 spots in the MLB roster, so we won’t pat ourselves on the back too much. Lets talk minors.

Discussion: No surprises in the Rotation: we predicted 7 guys in the AAA rotation competition and ended up with the 5 we predicted, a 6th as the swing-man/spot starter and the 7th (Arroyo) on the D/L for the time being.

The bullpen has some surprises: Gott as previously mentioned was projected in the majors; the other 6 bullpen members were in the 10 projected guys competing for the AAA spots. Two guys got pushed to AA. Brady starts on the D/L. Both my release candidates did in fact get released, along with off-season MLFA Velasquez. The real surprise making the AAA team was Masset.

Burnett opted out when he didn’t make the MLB team, but it wasn’t a stretch to predict that happening.

No real projection surprises though, all in all. Nobody who we projected to start in AA got moved up; only a couple guys who got moved down (Bacus and de los Santos). I’m slightly surprised de los Santos is in AA and it makes me question even more his 40-man add and usage last year (3 days of service time and now two options blown).

The big surprise here is that Austen Williams made the AA team; I had him at High-A. Perhaps it isn’t THAT big of a surprise given how well he pitched last year, but it does seem to go away from the Nats’ proclivities to start guys at their prior season’s level and have them “earn” early to mid-season promotions. He joins a pretty high powered duo of Giolito and Lopez. Gorski was an off-season MLFA brought in for competition and he didn’t win. Only one of my four release candidates was in fact released (Dupra): the other three got dumped to XLS or High-A, which is good for them but not good for the massive log-jam of recently drafted college arms who need spots in A-ball.

In the bullpen, we’ve talked before about the surprising release of Jake Walsh. There’s 5 guys stuck in XST limbo for now, a couple of which are release candidates. One name that popped out of the blue is Robert Fish, who signed an under-the radar MLFA deal in mid February and who apparently hasn’t pitched professionally in two full seasons. He must have had a pretty good spring.

Discussion: My High-A predictions show just how out of whack my “reading the stat lines” predictions can be, especially for starters.

In the Rotation, AWilliams earned a jump to AA. I thought Dickson and Van Orden were solid rotation candidates; instead they got released. Lastly, I thought both Estevez and Reyes were repeating Hagerstown; Estevez missed the whole season and Reyes posted a 4.82 ERA there last year. Instead they’re opening day starters for Potomac. Not even close here.

In the Bullpen, we got Johanssen, Orlan, Glover, Brinley, Sylvestre and Turnbull right (not too bad prediction wise), though the last couple guys are on the D/L and still may be release candidates. Who did we miss on? Robinson was an off-season MLFA (who signs MLFAs for high-A?), and Sanchez I had projected to repeat after posting a 4.86 in Hagerstown last year.

From a starter standpoint, we did a pretty good job projecting who would be in Hagerstown’s rotation. Four of the Six projected candidates “seem” like they’re in the rotation (full disclosure, we’re kind of guessing who these teams are using as starters until we see the first turn through the rotation). The misses? LReyes, who surprisingly is in High-A, and Guilbeau, who I thought would be on the team but in a relief role.

In the bullpen; we missed on Sanchez (who made High-A), Borne and Gunter (both of whom are in XST for now). In their place are a slew of guys who I was projecting to be elsewhere. I thought both VanVossen and DeRosier were release candidates after poor 2015 seasons in Short-A; instead they’re in the opening day bullpen. I had LTorres in the Short-A bullpen after mostly failing as a short-A starter.

Lastly there’s Bach and RPena; I had both projected in Potomac. I thought Bach had a perfectly good Low-A season last year and has nothing yet to prove in the Sally League. Pena returns to Hagerstown for the third time; he pitched in Low-A in 2013 and 2014. You have to think this is a planned short stint before he returns to at least High-A.

No real surprises in the “Missing/XST” crew: Dickey is the biggest profile name here but it seems to me he was injured last year so its hard to pass judgement on his stats anywhere. Borne‘s numbers were basically identical to the likes of Hearn and Guilbeau’s; he missed out in the 2016 competition. Gunter might make sense as a mid-season promotion to cover for injury. Ramos was hurt most of the year last year.

In the “release candidate” section, I was clearly wrong about Estevez. DWilliams and Boghosian have already indeed been released. And both Mooney/Pirro missed out on the full-season roster and are in XST limbo.

Let the games begin! Are there surprises for you guys in these rosters?

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Pedro Encarnaction), 2012’s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A. Had I done this post in 2014 I would have “featured” Lucas Giolito, who dominated in 2014 for the suns (10-2, 2.20 ERA).

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes. I’ll depend on text from my “draft class” write-ups where appropriate.

Hagerstown starters. The rotation started the season with AWilliams, Bach*, LReyes, Van Orden, Valdez. 18 guys got starts in 2015. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Austen Williamsblitzed the Sally league (8-1 with a 2.10 ERA) and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well. See High-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.

Connor Bach: Posted a 6-4, 3.85 ERA with 106/69 K/BB in 110 ip (20 starts) in Low A as a member of the rotation for much of the season. 4.08 fip, .311 babip. Not too shabby for a 21st round senior sign from a relatively unknown baseball school (VMI). Perhaps too many walks, but nearly a K/inning in full-season ball portends well for his future. At the very least he could move up as a lefty specialist. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.

Luis Reyeswent 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 starts and 117.2 IP, both leading the Hagerstown squad. 1.42 whip, 4.87 fip. Reyes signed relatively late for a Dominican player (at age 18) but has steadily progressed out of the DSL and through the short-season leagues. This was his first stint in full-season ball and at age 20 could be excused for getting hit somewhat hard. A 72/50 K/BB ratio isn’t promising; he maintained much better K/9 rates in the lower levels. I figure he’ll repeat Low-A looking to improve his numbers and see if he can regain some of his swing and miss stuff. Outlook for Next season: repeating Low-A rotation.

Drew Van Ordenwent 5-5, 3.61 ERA for Hagerstown with 47/34 K/BB in 92ip (15 starts), 4.33 fip, .254 babip. Not a bad season for the under-slot 2014 5th round senior sign, who’s clearly sticking around. He was mostly a spot starter for Hagerstown this year, getting a bunch of starts during the turmoil of the rotation. He ended the season on the DL after giving the team 92 decent innings. His FIP is a bit weak thanks to overall lucky BABIP contact but he has given no reason not to put himself into the discussion for that same role in Potomac next year. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation competition.

Philips Valdezdominated the Sally league, going 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA and quickly earned a promotion to Potomac. See High-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation

Jefry Rodriguezbounced between Short-A and Low-A again this season, starting in Hagerstown, pitching most of the year in Auburn and ending in Hagerstown. See the Short-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation.

Mario Sanchezwas Hagerstown’s long-man/spot starter all year, getting 8 starts in 29 appearances and posting a 4.86 ERA along the way. 70/18 K/BB ratio in 90.2 innings, 1.28 whip, 4.18 whip, .301 babip. Sanchez is even younger than the other DSL grads on this team (he didn’t turn 21 until after the season was over, so 2016 will be his age-21 season). Good control (nearly 4 strikeouts per walk) but was a bit homer prone (11 homers in 90 innings). He’s undersized (6’1″) and I wonder if he’s not destined to continue to be this rubber-armed innings eater for the organization. Its the same way he’s been used all along; few starts but lots of IP per appearance. I also think he needs to improve his numbers before moving up, and he’s young enough to repeat a level without really stalling his progress. Outlook for Next season: Low-A swingman again.

Justin Amlungis a bit of an oddity; he’s was a 24-yr old MLFA after getting cut from the Cubs’ high-A affiliate in May of 2015. The Nats signed him and had him repeating Low-A for his third straight year. He (like Sanchez) served as a swing-man, getting 19 appearances and 8 starts for Hagerstown, posting a 4.22 ERA along the way. He had a great 42/7 K/BB ratio in 64 low-A innings, 1.14 whip, 3.70 fip. He was promoted towards the end of the season and had a nice stretch for Potomac before the seasons’ end. He was immediately declared a MLFA but has re-signed for 2016. Outlook for Next season: high-A bullpen/swingman.

Matt Purkehad 8 starts and 32 IP for Hagerstown during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.

Erick Feddeevenly split his season between Short-A and Hagerstown. He was 4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip. He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he threw another 29 innings across 6 starts with lesser stats (1-2, 4.34 ERA). A good post-Tommy John debut season for our 2014 1st rounder Fedde, despite the rather restrictive innings limits put on him; he was limited to just 5ip per start for a total of 64ip on the season between two levels. Given his mediocre stats in Hagerstown and the Nats historical promotion schedule, he could start 2016 in the Hagerstown rotation with a quick move up to the Potomac rotation. I could be wrong though; looking at the state of my projected High-A rotation I could also easily see him starting the year in Potomac. There’s just so many arms competing for the Low-A rotation he may be forced up. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.

Andrew Leeposted a 5-1, 1.63 ERA across 3 levels, ending up in Hagerstown where he spent most of his first pro season. 47/10 K/BB in 38.2 innings (16/5 starts), 2.19 fip, .250 babip specifically in lowA where he spent most of his time. An intriguing arm for sure and more than held his own in 5 Low-A starts. He’s the fastest riser so far of the 2015 draft class and he’s easily in the mix for the Hagerstown 2016 rotation. Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation to start; could be a fast riser.

Jose Moralesgot blasted in two Low-A starts after three quick relief appearances in Auburn, then spent the rest of the year on the D/L. Not much to glean from his year; is he a starter or a reliever? He only threw 30-some odd relief innings in 2014; I think he’s being used as a long-man/spot starter arm for now. I would guess he’ll start 2016 in XST with an eye of hooking on with Short-A again. Outlook for Next season: Short-A bullpen.

Ryan Ullmanngot stuck in XST to start the season, hooked up with Hagerstown 5 weeks into the season, got hit hard, was dumped to Auburn, had one appearance and then was summarily released. Quite a quick downturn of events for Ullmann, who was always going to be a long shot (30th rounder out of a small school). Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.

Other Guys who got starts for Hagerstown:

Joan Baezgot 3 starts for Hagerstown in June, got hammered, and spent the rest of the year in short-season ball. See GCL write-up for more.

Jeff Howellhad two starts for Hagerstown before getting a few more in Potomac as he converted to the mound. See High-A write-up for more.

Brian Rauhhad two “rehab” starts for Hagerstown and spent most of the year in Harrisburg. See AA write-up for more.

Robbie Dickeyhad two starts in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.

Robert Orlanhad one spot-start for Hagerstown; see the reliever section.

Wirkin Estevezspent the entire season on the D/L: he’ll compete for a Low-A rotation spot in 2016.

Hagerstown Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Andrew Cooper: 2-2, 3.53 ERA with 35/16 K/BB in 63.2 relief IP for Low-A Hagerstown, 3.63 fip, .283 babip. Improved his numbers across the board while repeating Low-A. Still isn’t getting the K/9 we’d like to see though. He’ll be 24 in High-A next year in what probably is a make or break season. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

David Napoli went 7-5, 4.01 ERA with 62/36 K/BB in 60 relief IP mostly for LowA Hagerstown. 3.57 fip, .289 babip. He started with Potomac but spent most of the year in Hagerstown, despite turning 25 during the season. If anything, his numbers took a step back from his 2014 Hagerstown campaign, and given his age and the glut of arms in the system, time may be running out. Or maybe not: i mean, he signed for $15k and basically cost the team nothing and eats innings; that kind of guy is useful to have around. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Robert Orlanwent 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA. Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role. Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip. He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016. I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Samuel Johnswent 3-4, 4.31 ERA between LowA and ShortA with 39/17 k/bb in 62.2 relief innings, 4.63 fip, .290 babip in lowA. He struggled in LowA, but then dropped back to ShortA and was dominant. Not great, but certainly not bad for a 31st round 5th year senior as compared to what has happened to other 5th year senior signs on this list. Maybe not the best stuff, but has been effective. My guess is that he either makes the Hagerstown team next spring or is cut loose, but the fact that he hung around this long gives him some more room to work with. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen.

Kevin Perezthrew 36 relatively effective innings for Hagerstown after throwing 18 relatively ineffective innings for Potomac to start the year. The team signed him as a MLFA early in 2015 after he was dumped out of the Low-A Royals affiliate but I doubt he showed the team enough to stick with him given the number of arms rising out of the short-season rosters. Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.

Deion Williams, went 1-2, 5.46 ERA with 22/18 K/BB in 29.2 relief innings with Hagerstown. Williams was drafted as a SS but converted to the mound after a year or so. Since then, he’s struggled, somehow making it onto the full-season Hagerstown roster in June after sitting in XST for two months. There, he continued not to impress; his career ERA is now 6.12 across 103IP and the three lower levels of the minors. I could see 2016 being a “make it or break it” year for him; he either makes the full season bullpen or he’s cut. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.

Koda Gloverwent 1-1, 1.80 ERA across 2 levels, getting promoted to Low-A after just 6 IP in Short-A. Of course, in those 6ip he gave up just one hit and struck out 11, so it was pretty clear he was over-qualified for the league. For the season: 38/2 K/BB in 30 ip (19app), 2.44 fip, .288 babips in LowA where he spent most of the year. 38 to 2 (!!) K/BB ratio in 30 innings. No wonder he was an over-slot deal; the 2015 draftee is one of the highest rising guys in the class so far. Glover profiled very well and should be in the mix for a High-A bullpen slot in 2016 already.Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Brett Mooneyhamwas 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for Low-A Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15. Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014. You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era. Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft. Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.

Ryan Brinleywent 1-4 1.44 ERA across 3 levels this year with a 16/1 K/BB in 31.1 ip, 3.85 fip, .292 babip in low-A (where he ended up). Great 27th round find so far in Brinley, who may not have a ton of swing and miss but certainly seems to have some command (1 BB in 31 innings??). Could be a nice little middle relief option going forward, someone who can keep his team in games. I could see him in the High-A bullpen next year based on his command of Low-A. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Jake Walshthrew 17 scoreless innings in Hagerstown before getting bumped up to High-A. See High-A write-up for more.

David Ramosthrew 13 innings of middle relief for Hagerstown before getting hurt; he spent most of the summer going “rehab” assignments all throughout short-season ball before being “activated” once the full-season was done. Not much to glean from his season; his ERAs were not pretty anywhere he went. He’s now 24, in his fourth pro season outside of the DSL and has yet to post an ERA below 6.46 in any of his multiple stops. Honestly, I’m surprised he made the full-season bullpen in 2015. I’d guess he’ll take another shot at Hagerstown’s bullpen in 2016 and if he doesn’t make it, he could be facing an April 1 release. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.

Other Relievers who got less than 10 IP for Hagerstown this year:

Tommy Peterson: threw 6ip in the last week of the season: see Short-A write-up.

It was a successful season for Hagerstown hurlers; I count 6-7 guys who earned promotions by pitching well in Hagerstown. A good number of them should feature in 2016 for either Potomac or Harrisburg. This didn’t help the Suns much, as they finished both halves right around .500, not quite good enough for a playoff spot. 2016’s staff will have some familiarity to it; I think a good portion of the 2016 opening day rotation will look just like the 2015 end-of-season rotation, mirroring the Nats recent habit of having players repeat levels in overlapping seasons and doing mid-season promotions.