3. Over the past few summers – when the paths are clear and the seas calm – Syria has churned out people. But this year has seen the greatest outflow yet. The latest UN figures show that Syria’s population has shrunk to just 16.6m., down from a pre-war

level of
around 22m. With 4m unregistered refugees abroad, at
least 1m more unregistered and 7m internally displaced
people, more than half the country’s population has
been forced to move.

4. UN officials think the number could be significantly higher than that, since estimates of the pre-war population vary widely. Up to 250,000 people have died. The Middle East has witnessed mass movement before: Palestinians, Jews, Armenians, Kurds, Iraqis,

to name but
a few. Yet while many of them settled in the region – often
in Syria, which only a few years ago offered refuge to over
1m Iraqis and 560,000 Palestinians – more are now
choosing to go father afield.

How many migrants are dying
trying to reach Europe?
So far more than 2,600 migrants
are known to have died crossing
the Mediterranean Sea to reach
Europe in 2015, according to the
International Organization for
Migration.
This year 350,000 migrants have
arrived in Europe by sea compared
with 219,000 during the whole of
2014, itself a record year. Greece
alone has seen 234,000 people
land on its shores, compared with
35,000 in 2014.

6. So common has the flight by sea towards Europe become that airlines have special announcements. ‘Please leave the life-jackets,’ pleads a steward through the tannoy on the flight from Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, to Adana in Turkey, the country from w

So common has the flight by sea towards Europe
become that airlines have special announcements.
‘Please leave the life-jackets,’ pleads a steward
through the tannoy on the flight from Lebanon’s
capital, Beirut, to Adana in Turkey, the country
from which most of the boat-people leave.
Those leaving cite several motives
for moving now. Syria’s war is
intensifying: the number of armed
incidents rose from 4,000 in January
to 6,000 in August, according to a
data agency with scores of monitors
on the ground.

7. Some are fleeing Islamic State though many more are leaving from rebel-held areas that are being attacked by the regime. Syrians are also leaving relatively peaceful regime-held areas in larger numbers, too. «Every Syrian wants to leave, more than ever»

Some are fleeing Islamic State though many more are
leaving from rebel-held areas that are being attacked by
the regime.
Syrians are also leaving relatively peaceful regime-held
areas in larger numbers, too. «Every Syrian wants to leave,
more than ever», says Omar, a student who recently
arrived in the Netherlands from a safe part of Damascus.
Many come from the regime’s outposts, such as western
Aleppo, which, relying as it does on air cover to maintain
supplies, feels increasingly fragile.

9. Services have deteriorated even in the richest parts of the capital. According to the UN, a middle income country has collapsed into one in which over 80% of people are ‘in need’. Poor and often falling living conditions also explain why Syrians are f

Services have deteriorated even in the richest parts of the
capital. According to the UN, a middle income country
has collapsed into one in which over 80% of people are
‘in need’.
Poor and often falling living conditions also explain why
Syrians are fleeing the neighboring countries where, at
first, they found safety. Many who thought they would
soon return to Syria have now despaired.

10. ‘The worsening conditions in Lebanon and Jordan and restrictions on the Syrians are contributing to a sense of hopelessness’, says Ariane Rummery of the UNHCR. Some refugees say the host countries are actively encouraging them to leave, frustrated wit

‘The worsening conditions in Lebanon and Jordan and
restrictions on the Syrians are contributing to a sense of
hopelessness’, says Ariane Rummery of the UNHCR.
Some refugees say the host countries are actively
encouraging them to leave, frustrated with what they see
as a burden already on their stretched resources. In
Lebanon refugees now account for well over a quarter of
the population.

11. None of the 4 main countries hosting Syria’s registered refugees – Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq – recognizes them as such. This means that they are unable to work legally. In Jordan they are encouraged to go to a camp, though most live on the ed

None of the 4 main countries hosting Syria’s registered
refugees – Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq – recognizes
them as such. This means that they are unable to work
legally.
In Jordan they are encouraged to go to a camp, though
most live on the edge of cities.

12. In Lebanon official camps are banned, so Syrians live in makeshift shacks fashioned from wood beams covered with sacking. By their own accounts, hostility towards them is rising.

13. The UN has cut assistance to Syrians, since to date it has received only 37% of the $4.55 billion it says it needs this year. This month, e.g. it dropped thousands of Syrians in Jordan from its food assistance program. Food aid in Lebanon fell by half in

The UN has cut assistance to Syrians, since to date it has
received only 37% of the $4.55 billion it says it needs this year.
This month, e.g. it dropped thousands of Syrians in Jordan from
its food assistance program.
Food aid in Lebanon fell by half in July, to just $13.50 per head
per month. Money promised this week by EU leaders should
help a lot.

14. Europe is by far the most favored destination for those who leave. Lawrence Mala Ali, an engineer who recently arrived in Norway, laughs when asked why he didn’t go to an Arab country: ‘Which one? The Arab Gulf won’t accept us. Jordan offers us Zaat

Europe is by far the most favored destination for those
who leave. Lawrence Mala Ali, an engineer who recently
arrived in Norway, laughs when asked why he didn’t go to
an Arab country: ‘Which one? The Arab Gulf won’t accept
us. Jordan offers us Zaatari camp. Lebanon is the capital
of humiliation’, he says. ‘I chose Europe because it’s the
only possible place that makes me feel that I am a man
again’.

19. Authorities are struggling to cope as most people cross to a handful of small islands situated kilometers from the Turkish coast. Some 23,000 have arrived in the past week, 50% more than the previous week. The majority of recent migrants are fleeing from

Authorities are struggling to cope as most people cross to a
handful of small islands situated kilometers from the Turkish
coast. Some 23,000 have arrived in the past week, 50% more
than the previous week. The majority of recent migrants are
fleeing from Syria and Afghanistan.
Most people will journey further north to seek asylum in
countries like Germany, which accepts most asylum-seekers
in total, and Sweden, which takes in most as a share of its own
population.
Germany expects at least 800,000 asylum-seekers this year
compared with 173,000 in 2014.

20. There are no good statistics on the economic background of the refugees. But many, like Mr Ali and the brothers in Tripoli, are middle-class by Syrian standards – after all, they have to find the $2,500 or so the smugglers demand. According to Swedish f

There are no good statistics on the economic background
of the refugees. But many, like Mr Ali and the brothers in
Tripoli, are middle-class by Syrian standards – after all,
they have to find the $2,500 or so the smugglers demand.
According to Swedish figures, 40% of Syrians arriving
there have upper-secondary education or higher. Many
who are leaving had flats and jobs. Even were they safe,
after 4 years of war many Syrians want a better
standard of living, and education for themselves or
their children.

21. The factors pulling people towards Europe have become more powerful, too. When Angela Merkel said last month that she was setting aside the rule that those seeking safety must apply for asylum in the first EU country they reach, it was interpreted as an o

The factors pulling people towards Europe have become
more powerful, too. When Angela Merkel said last month
that she was setting aside the rule that those seeking safety
must apply for asylum in the first EU country they reach, it
was interpreted as an open door.

22. TV images of warm welcomes added to the impression. ‘Look how the Germans met Syrians arriving on trains! And look how the Austrians brought food!’ The flow is likely to lessen when winter comes, but most Syrians reckon the exodus will resume in the s

TV images of warm welcomes added to the impression.
‘Look how the Germans met Syrians arriving on trains!
And look how the Austrians brought food!’
The flow is likely to lessen when winter comes, but most
Syrians reckon the exodus will resume in the spring.
Syrians in Europe pass news back to friends and relatives
elsewhere via social media. Since many men set off with
the intention of bringing their families later on, more
people are likely to follow.

23. UNHCR statistics say 80% of migrants arriving in Europe are male. One problem for the Syrians is a growing number of other nationalities who are pretending to be Syrian, sometimes armed with fake passports, and sometimes with none, to claim asylum. So far

in 2015 the UN says that half a million people have
crossed the Mediterranean, 40% of whom were Syrian.
Despite those figures, the vast majority of Syrians are still
in their country or its neighbors. The poorest are among
them.

25. As Iraq has found, rebuilding a country is hard when the educated have left. Their departure is making sectarian divisions increasingly pronounced, too. Most people in areas held by the regime, headed by its Alawite president, are Sunnis, but the proporti

As Iraq has found, rebuilding a country is hard when the
educated have left. Their departure is making sectarian
divisions increasingly pronounced, too. Most people in
areas held by the regime, headed by its Alawite president,
are Sunnis, but the proportion is declining. Mostly Sunni
Idlib province, e.g. has been taken by the Sunni
opposition.

26. Syria’s many rulers are seeking to hold onto their populations. Assad regime wants men who can fight. Syria’s Kurds want refugees to return so their lands can’t be “Arabised”. If fighting intensifies in Aleppo or Damascus, many more will leave.

Syria’s many rulers are seeking to hold onto their
populations. Assad regime wants men who can fight.
Syria’s Kurds want refugees to return so their lands can’t
be “Arabised”. If fighting intensifies in Aleppo or
Damascus, many more will leave. The worst could be yet
to come.

28. Some 60% of those who have crossed the Mediterranean this year are Syrian. But increasingly others are coming from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia or Pakistan. Most make the trip via Turkey, either directly en route from their own countries or after being base

Some 60% of those who have crossed the Mediterranean
this year are Syrian. But increasingly others are coming
from Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia or Pakistan. Most
make the trip via Turkey, either directly en route from
their own countries or after being based there for a year or
so. They then go across to Greece and up through the
western Balkans.