Thursday, 22 September 2011

The Healthcare System Futures 2016 scenarios are taking shape (and will form the basis of one set of stimulus materials for my session at next week’s eyeforpharma Engage with the new NHS conference on 27th / 28th September in London).

Here is the scenario grid that I have developed, and below the emerging stories:

The rise of the health consumer

Patients are able to exercise choice and readily do so, supported by their healthcare professionals. The health care system – including the NHS – increasingly recognises theirpre-eminence as consumers.

The QIPP agenda to promote quality, innovation, productivity and prevention has been very successful, so the pace and scale of innovation in the healthcare sector has been rapid and significant.

The rate at which provider organisations are able to effectively respond to the evolving commissioning landscape has been positive leading to more choice of better services against increasing patient / consumer demand.

Where personal wealth allows, patients are willing to pay directly for / "top up" their healthcare.

New and existing players are actively seeking to expand their influence and the services they provide to meet growing demand driven by innovative commissioning and greater evidence of patients exercising choice.

Any takers?

Patients are generally unable or unwilling to exercise choice despite effective implementation of new commissioning arrangements. Even with the’ development of consumer capacity within the healthcare system, there is little confidence that the ability to exercise genuine choice is a reality.

The QIPP agenda to promote quality, innovation, productivity and prevention has been very successful, so the pace and scale of innovation in the healthcare sector has been rapid and significant.

The rate at which provider organisations are able to effectively respond to the evolving commissioning landscape has been positive leading to more choice of better services, but patient driven demand has been limited.

Patients remain reluctant to pay directly for / "top up" their healthcare, feeling that the original principles of public healthcare provision in the UK should remain in force.

New players are reluctant to enter the market due to evidence of limited choice being made by patients.

It’s all too much

Patients are generally unable or unwilling to exercise choice, a situation exacerbated by poor and ineffective implementation of new commissioning arrangements. There is no confidence that genuine choice will become a reality.

The QIPP agenda to promote quality, innovation, productivity and prevention has largely failed so the pace and scale of innovation in the healthcare sector has been very limited.

The rate at which provider organisations are able to effectively respond to the evolving commissioning landscape has been very limited as commissioners struggle to adopt to the new commissioning arrangements. However, patient driven demand has been limited so there has been limited patient backlash.

Patients remain reluctant to pay directly for / "top up" their healthcare, feeling that the original principles of public healthcare provision in the UK should remain in force.

Given this backdrop, new players have not entered the market.

Broken promises

Patients are aware of their ability to make choices in the treatment they receive in theory, but find the reality very different. Poor and ineffective implementation of new commissioning arrangements has been identified as a major hurdle in promoting choice which is giving rise to an increasingly frustratedpatient population.

The QIPP agenda to promote quality, innovation, productivity and prevention has largely failed so the pace and scale of innovation in the healthcare sector has been very limited.

The rate at which provider organisations are able to effectively respond to the evolving commissioning landscape has been very limited as commissioners struggle to adopt to the new commissioning arrangements. However, patient driven demand has been high and tensions are rising amongst the public as the health service is roundly criticised for not meeting demand.

Where personal wealth allows, patients are willing to pay directly for / "top up" their healthcare to ensure they get the care they think they deserve.

Given this commissioning backdrop, new players have not entered the market.

Friday, 16 September 2011

Building on the work to introduce Journey Scenarios - scenarios to explore an interim point on the journey to 2030, I have looked at the drivers for the longer term work, added or revised some of the drivers, eliminated others and assessed them for impact and uncertainty against the guiding questions and a five year time horizon.

As a reminder, the guiding questions are:

How will the UK’s healthcare system manage the tension between the cost of care, the quality of care and the engagement of patients, carers and the public generally in 2016 / 2030?

What are the implications for providers and consumers of care over the next 5 / 20 years?

While the summary scenarios are taking shape – and I should be in a position to share these soon – here is the underpinning impact and uncertainty plot:

Don't forget, contact me if you have any questions, comments, you'd like to know more about this work or explore how we can support your own strategic futures work.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

The ability and desire of patients to exercise choice and the pace and scale with which effective commissioning arrangements are implemented are the critical drivers of healthcare over the next five years and so will form the basis for the development of the interim scenarios.

Wednesday, 31 August 2011

Stakeholders in healthcare are telling me that they are very much focussed on the near term, and while the long-range future is interesting and strategically important context for their long term planning, they just don’t have the organisational ability to focus there right now.

That started me thinking about the journey to 2030, and so I have taken the 20 year drivers and looked at what could be relevant over the next five years.

It’s still early days in this new piece of analysis, but the key issues look to be the economy, the dynamic between commissioners and providers in the context of health reform, the tension with and within the QIPP agenda in seeking innovation and efficiency.

I’m playing around with these drivers with the aim of creating some scenarios lite as a set of milestones between now and 2030.

Tuesday, 10 May 2011

As the scenario work has evolved, I have looked at different ways to share the information. So in addition to this blog and the Sharpcloud Roadmap model, I have also created a You Tube video, and here it is:

I have also added a few more drivers and re-assessed them so that analysis will be available soon.

What's interesting is that I am noticing an increase in interest in strategic futures work in health care. So if you want to know more, contact me via my website, LinkedIn or Twitter.