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Saturday, January 15, 2011

1997 Asian Financial Crisis will not be repeating with power of yuan

The 1997 so-called "Asian" Financial Crisis was a very hard time for Asian nations. Such as Thailand, Malaysia, Korea. Their sovereign currency being devalued. A humiliating and humbling defeat in the face of globalisation. In short derivative from the name itself, it was generally a pretty bad episode for Asia.

Now or recently, the US sub-prime Financial Crisis sort of lingered onto Europe with several countries being deeply affected such as Iceland, Greece. Why isn't it called the European or more appropriately Caucasian Financial Crisis? Well, the world isn't that fair isn't it? Right when the Asian Financial Crisis happened, the US-backed IMF and World Bank were pressuring and literally forcing countries to accept defeat - devalue the currency, accept billions of US Dollars of loans, and restructuring that will eventually benefit and tilted to their geo-political advantage.

So what if my age-old 1994 thesis happens again?
And what was my thesis about?

In short, and simplified form, it talks about how each huge financial crisis will come knocking every 10 years. Much like Moore's Law of transistors doubling every 1.5 years! So extrapolate the years 1987/8, 1997/8, 2007/8 and the next set is presumably 2017/8.

Say it happens again and this time the turf is back into Asia. The whipping boys and will be thus called Asian Financial Crisis Episode 2. Version 2.0. Perhaps currencies will start to dip. But wait. Didn't Asian sovereign states now have billions of US Dollars in reserve in their own federal bank?

Yes. So perhaps China will step in and start selling US Dollar denominated loans, T-bills, and basically dollars. Thus saving the day, and thus wrapping up the wasted space in the federal reserves of all these Asian nations for the past 15-20 years. And then alas, now only can Asian fully move on without the baggage of holding to US Dollars and finally America as we all know will be surely heading into a faster tailspin with no sovereign country willing and wanting to buy their junk government bonds anymore that have been helping to prop up their economy and military system and dominance.

Asian countries too will shed all their US-Dollar denominated holdings, to buy or shore up their own markets and finances. In a good way it will be a good clean-up.