Palestinian Election System Delivers Hamas Majority

In
the national legislative election held on January 25th, Hamas won 76 of
132 seats, or 58%, compared to 43 seats, or 33%, for the governing
Fatah party. Palestine used a parallel system, electing 66 of 132
seats in multimember districts and 66 on a national list basis. Hamas won 30 of
the national list seats, or 45%, while Fatah won 27, or 41%.

But Hamas also claimed 46 district seats, or 70%, versus 16, or 24%,
for Fatah. Where Fatah overnominated candidates, Hamas proved more apt
at "gaming" the winner-take-all district system. Fatah also may have
faced spoilers from other moderate parties and independents.

Assuming
the list totals are an accurate measure of national support
for each party, Hamas is overrepresented by 25% while Fatah is
underrepresented by 17%. Even with the mitigating effect of the
list seats, Hamas is likely overrepresented in the full legislature by
13% while Fatah is under-represented by 8%. Had the entire parliament
been filled in a list election, neither party would have had a
majority, and Hamas would have had to form a coalition with more
moderate factions.