Can Michael Bourn help Astros salvage something from this season?

The hunch here was that enough things would go right for the Astros to win 85 games.

Good enough to keep the summer interesting.

Not good enough to keep playing into October.

Things haven’t gone right — not enough of them. Other than Lance Berkman (.339, 22 homers, 73 runs batted in) and Carlos Lee (.306, 22, 80), a supposedly explosive offense has turned into one of those gag cigars that keeps blowing up in manager Cecil Cooper’s face. Add to that the doomsday pitching scenario of ace Roy Oswalt getting into the latter half of July with a 4.56 earned run average and on the disabled list, and all that’s keeping the Astros from tumbling into the skid row sector of the National League Central is the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Astros aren’t liable to pass go and collect $200, let alone reel in the Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs in the division race. About the most they can salvage at this point is getting a handle on who can help them in 2009 and 2010.

Until the Astros get their farm system in order, this is how it’s going to be. For the next two years, three years, maybe more, the Astros will need a succession of best-case-scenarios to unfold for them to be a contender.

The Astros were hoping catcher J.R. Towles could entrench himself as a viable everyday player this season. That didn’t happen. They sent Towles back to the minor leagues after Monday night’s 9-3 defeat against Pittsburgh, unable to live any longer with his .143 batting average. Towles is only 24, and he’s already in danger of being typecast as one of those players good enough to hit in the minor leagues (.954 on-base-plus slugging at Triple-A Round Rock) and not good enough for the majors (.519 OPS). Even if he comes back with a strong spring in 2009, you’d think he’d be hard-pressed to have the Astros’ trust.

The hope for the Astros was the Hunter Pence could pick up where he left off in finishing third in the 2007 Rookie of the Year voting. Pence has made the transition from center field to right a seamless one defensively, but he has backtracked as a hitter.

His .322 average as a rookie has fallen to .265 this season.

His on-base percentage has fallen from .360 to .304.

His slugging average has plunged from .539 to .426.

Pence is nowhere close to being the Astros’ biggest problem, but he needs to do more if he’s going to be part of the solution. He’s on pace to finish the season with 20 homers and 79 RBI — well short of what a contending team would expect of a right fielder. His .730 OPS ranks 16th out of the 19 players who have played at least 65 games in right field. If he doesn’t get better command of the strike zone (21 walks, 78 strikeouts in 373 at-bats), if he can’t keep pulling off the outside pitch, he’s not going to emerge as the face of the franchise that the Astros want him to be.

He’s also 25, with the right work ethic and mentality. His best years should be in front of him.

That brings us to the only other Astros regular who is on the right side of 30. Astros general manager Ed Wade was willing to wager the considerable talents of Brad Lidge that Michael Bourn could be the sort of center fielder and leadoff hitter who could energize a team.

Oops.

Lidge is back to being the most dominant closer in the NL, with 21 saves and a 1.10 ERA in 41 innings. The Phillies were so taken a half season’s look at Lidge, they rewarded him with a three-year, $37.5 million contract extension.

Now, let’s be fair. The trade hasn’t been quite as bad for the Astros as most people think — no thanks to Bourn, who has a .219 batting average, .277 on-base percentage and .292 slugging average. One of the players the Astros received in return, reliever Geoff Geary, has a 2.14 earned run average in 42 innings. He’s no Lidge, but at the risk of damning him with faint praise, he has been the Astros’ most consistent reliever this season.

On Monday, Cooper inserted Bourn in the starting lineup for the first time in 10 days. Bourne, who had been in a 3-for-37 funk, drew two walks and legged out an infield hit. If Bourn, 25, could do enough the rest of the season to establish himself as viable everyday player, that would give the Astros an important thing to build on next season.

Is that the way to bet? You decide:

• Of the 119 NL players with at least 200 at-bats, Bourn is 116th in on-base percentage.

• He’s 117th in slugging.

• He’s dead last in OPS.

About the best the Astros could hope for Bourn is that he becomes this generation’s Lance Johnson — a left-handed slap hitter who could flag down fly balls from gap to gap. Johnson batted .291, stole 35 or more bases six times and made an All-Star team in 14 seasons. He knew how to put the ball and his speed in play, striking out once every 14.0 at-bats. Bourn, for his part, has a career strikeout rate of one every 4.56 at-bats.

12 Responses

In aswer to your question. No. Not even the reincarnation of Joe Dimaggio could save this troop of hapless merdenaries from the fate of last place.

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Well, I’m not thinking in terms of saving it for 2008. But it would help for 2009 and beyond if Bourn could show he’s a viable player. They have enough core players to have one of those lightning-in-a-bottle seasons while they’re buying time to build up the farm system. It would help, though, if they didn’t go into next season with gaping holes at catcher and center field. They have more than enough holes to fill in the pitching staff as it is. … Oh, and speaking if Joe DiMaggio, I was at Yankee Stadium when the Yankees honored him a few days after his death. Paul Simon sang “Mrs. Robinson,” which, of course, has that famous line: “Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.” Truly, truly touching. SC

the answer is NO…Bourn can’t hell us….the boy can’t help us…sounds like a song huh?…thanks for throwing in that Towles was shipped out last night…it was really stupid to turn the catching over to a guy who spent 6 years at A ball hitting .163 was brought up to Corpus just to fill in until a real catcher could be found…he caught on moved up to Round Rock and had 14 good days in Houston….oh lets forget waht he did the previous 6 years lets make him the starting catcher…

Lets see we need a pitcher! who has a contract expiring this year Wolf whose ERA is approaching 5.00 Wolf who is over 30 Wolf…perfect choice… lets see who among our few remaining prospects does San Diego want?

Ed Wade is startiing to look more and more like Tim Purpura. Looking like he got his pants pulled down in the Brad Lidge deal is very Purpura’esque. Sending what little talent we had on the farm for a two years older, un-juiced Miguel Tejada on the downside of a career is not looking much better. Now woo’ing another below average pitcher in Randy Wolf to play in (opposing) hitter friendly Minute Maid park. Getting choked down by a crappy back of the order pitcher who you just insulted – you couldn’t write this stuff and be believable.

Ed Wade is “remarkable”. I am beginning to believe the naysayers.

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I’m still on Ed Wade’s side in the Shawn Chacon thing. Chacon was acting like a petulant 5-year-old. Period. And I do think people are overestimating what the Astros gave up in the Tejada deal. Matt Albers is hurt. Troy Patton is hurt, and I was skeptical of his big-league prospects anyway. Dennis Sarfate and Luke Scott are not kids. So it’s not as if the deal drained the Astros of a bunch of promising prospects. Don’t get me wrong, though: Ed Wade has has not distinguished himself to this point. At least, not in a good way for Astros fans. SC

One of the mistakes with JR was annoiting him the starting catcher before the season even started. This was based on what, 20, 25 abs? I think Ausmus has had more to do with his inability at the plate than anyone realizes. The Astros should have, could have signed a catcher during the offseason that would have been much better than what we currently have, and maybe cheaper than Ausmus’ $2mil, 1 yr contract. JR needs to play everyday, and he needs to do so in the minors. Q is a vast improvement over JR and Ausmus, but we all know Brad will get most of the starts.

Wade trying to go after and sign Wolf, for what? What does he think he’s got that the Padres want? He’ll probably trade Loretta, Jason Castro, Jack Cassel, and one or two pitchers from AA for him. We simply don’t need another broken down has been in the rotation. Here again, he could have signed Lilly, Lohse, or a few more, and all would have been better that our current 5. I know Roy has been hurt, but he was pretty below average before his injury issues, which lead a lot of people to believe he is breaking down, and rapidly.

There is not a snowballs chance that Bourn will help this year, or anytime soon for that matter. He appears to be uncoachable, or at least confused about what he is supposed to do at the plate. Anyone with his speed should be able to bunt for a hit, and the man has no idea about how to bunt.

They also need to get ris of Sean Berry as hitting coach. The Astros had some good ones in the past, and they showed them all the door. Jarramillo, McCraw, and Gaetti come to mind. They need to put Dewey back in his old position and bring Hooton back as well.

Any notion from the front office about trying to contend this year, next year, or even the year after are just plain nuts. Drayton needs to swallow his pride, fire Wade, get Hunsicker back at any cost, give him full autonomy over the club, and he’ll get this turned around in about 3 to 4 years. Drayton needs to fire Tal Smith as well.

I think you’ve put your finger on it as far as the Astros are concerned. This season should have been treated as a write-off from day one. The ONLY thing that is important this year is filling holes, putting the pieces in place so that, in say the 2010 season (at the earliest) we can begin to see the revival of a once-proud franchise.

That being said, it amazes me how few players we have who are under 30 years old. Nobody on the starting infield qualifies, nor among the backups for that matter. There are only two guys in the bullpen that qualify — Valverde and Wright (and we should make sure that we hang on to those guys). It’s kind of hard to say how many youngsters we have in the starting rotation because, given all the backing and filling, it’s kind of hard to say what our starting rotation is. The only youngster I can identify as a starter is Jack Cassel, assuming that he is actually a starter and not a fill-in until Randy gets here from San Diego. In the outfield we have two young guys when Bourn starts. At catcher we have one sub-30 guy if Quintero makes it back. So, we have an older team that is not very good, and not likely to be very good any time soon if we assume it will take at least a year or two for the first cohort of draft picks to show some potential.

I think Bourn should not be crossed off yet, but the current strategy puzzles me. If he is not going to start, he should be at Round Rock, learning how to bunt, be more selective at the plate, and slap the ball the other way. On the other hand, it seems to me that when he is in the lineup at a position other than leadoff, he does pretty well. Last night he got on three times, and he batted second. I would like to see what his numbers look like when he leads off and when he bats somewhere down in the lineup.

But if Bourn can’t put anything together, it seems to me we have a net gain in question marks. Everyone thought one of the certainties this season was Oswalt as your number one starter. That has been greatly cast in doubt. Can it be that the franchise is taking a step backward this year?

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For what it’s worth, Bourne’s breakdown in different parts in the order:

Leadoff .202 BA, .265 OBP, .285 SLG in 267 at-bats.

No. 2: .200, .294, .267 in 15 at-bats.

No. 7: .361, .378, .389 in 36 at-bats.

No. 8: .250, .250, .250 in 8 at-bats.

In other words, he has a ridiculously small sample size in the other spots in the other spots. Bottom line: To this point, he has been an abysmal offensive player. SC

the only person drayton can look at the mirror and see is his lonely, selfish, money bagging self…if he truly wanted to win he would have shown wagner the money, he would have shown beltran the money, he would have shown randy johnson the money, andy pettite, jeff kent and how many other all stars left due to mcclaine’s penny pinching, we need a new owner simple as that

Lidge is a $13,000,000 a year guy with 40 innings this year. That would be asinine here. he is due to pull a Chad Qualls. Look what that guy has reverted to…

The Astros need to send Bourn to AAA and let him play. Call him back in September when the rosters expand.

Wolf would cost what they saved on Chacon this year. It’s a no cost trial period that can replace Hernandez, and then you still have Hernandez in September. I don’t think its bad if they are sending 1 year contract players and cash to make up the move. They took Ensberg and Lane didn’t they?

It won’t drain Drayton.

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Lidge is pitching great, but that’s crazy money to pay him or any closer. Can’t figure out what the Phillies are thinking. SC

Berkman had a hot April and May, but has not produced since, Tajada had a hot May but nada since, Lee has had a hot July and Pence has not been hot all year. The majic was there in May but these guys have been playing like zoombies since. It’s time to shake up the club and get some new blood.

I truly enjoy your posts (not done often enough though!) – just a nit here; the Astros have Michael Bourn on the team, not Jason Bourne, although I bet he could effectively break up a double play or run through a tag at home….

I think when all is said and done, Bourn will be actually turn out better than Lance Johnson. He has some pop in his bat and if he can figure out how to hit some line drives, he could really rack up some doubles and triples. Agreed Ks are a huge issue, so I agree with others that going down to AAA until September callups could really help him out.

There is no plausible explanation for trading for Randy Wolf – he can’t possibly get this team into contention this year and if Wade thinks that signing him to an extension for ’09 will significantly upgrade the rotation, then my worst fears about his roster building acumen are all but confirmed.

I think you are dead on about Pence. People were annointing him last year a future allstar and the next big thing. This year he has been average to poor at best. The question to be answered is was last year and aberration for him or this year. He wasnt lights out ever in the minors, just a good solid prospect. So his ceiling might be that of a 4th outfielder than superstar or allstar. Right now he wouldnt be playing on a good team. He is only a regular on the stros because they arent a good team.