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Mike Allen on 2012 blame game

Top Democrats in Washington and many back in South Dakota prefer former Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin over the younger Johnson, believing the former congresswoman would have a better chance at keeping the seat in Democratic hands, people involved with the matter say. Republicans already have one very formidable candidate — former Gov. Mike Rounds — and possibly a second in Rep. Kristi Noem.

A source close to Senate leadership said: “Stephanie has a lot of support and would start in a stronger position, and Senate Democrats want time to assess.”

Democrats are eager to avoid a primary that would pit their two biggest rising stars against each other in a state of just 800,000 people that Mitt Romney carried by 18 points. The party also needs a candidate to challenge the incumbent governor and to run for the sole U.S. House seat.

The younger Johnson, 37, doesn’t have a voting record to defend. And he’s the namesake of a powerful political brand that has helped Democrats keep a foothold in the heart of Republican country.

But what makes the younger Johnson an attractive candidate also makes him a ripe target for the GOP, which is already targeting him for what they see as under-the-radar maneuvering to lay the groundwork for a statewide campaign.

“They don’t like a sense of entitlement. They don’t like the whole dynasty concept. They don’t like too much power in one or few persons’ hands,” GOP Sen. John Thune said of voters in his state. “There’s a real independence streak that goes through our state.”

“It’s nothing against Brendan Johnson personally,” he said. “It’s simply against the concept of United States Senate seats being part of your family estate.”

The pre-emptive strike against the younger Johnson by the GOP underscores the significance of the seat in the race for control of the Senate next year. The likely retirement of his father, who spent a decade in the House before being elected to the Senate in 1996, would give Republicans a shot at another open seat.

Democratic retirements in West Virginia and Iowa already have given the GOP new hope of winning the net six seats they need to take the upper chamber. So far, Republican retirements have occurred in two deeply red states, Nebraska and Georgia, while another Democratic retirement occurred in the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey.

“I think all the retirements that have been announced on both the Republican and Democrat side are to our advantage,” said Kansas Sen. Jerry Moran, the new chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “The retirements that the Democrats are experiencing lend themselves to being replaced by Republicans.”

Democrats in South Dakota are weighing whether Herseth Sandlin would be a stronger candidate, despite her loss during the Republican wave in 2010.

“There may be some backlash,” Ted Muenster, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 1990, said of a possible Brendan Johnson bid. “I would hate to see Brendan’s potential political career sidetracked because of that. He’s young, and he’s got plenty of time left. Somebody told me the other day that this is the sort of thing that happens in the Middle East.”

“Brendan is a very viable candidate but equally or as much so is Congresswoman Herseth Sandlin,” said state Senate Minority LeaderJason Frerichs. “She’s a proven winner statewide and was able to prove herself not only in Washington as a successful moderate but someone who could talk with folks on both sides of the state.”