Labour-Greens closing on National in latest Roy Morgan poll

Labour-Greens closing on National in latest Roy Morgan
poll

By Pattrick Smellie

Sept. 3 (BusinessDesk) -
Just three percentage points separate the governing National
Party from the combined vote of Labour and Green party
supporters in the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll, its second
to last before polling day, Sept. 20.

Covering the full
period since the release of Nicky Hager's 'Dirty Politics'
book and the resignation from Cabinet last Saturday by
former Justice Minister Judith Collins, the poll shows
National on 45 percent support, while Labour and the Greens
combined poll 42 percent, placing the main Opposition
parties within striking distance of defeating the incumbent
government of Prime Minister John Key.

However, the news
is not all good for Labour, which has slipped 1.5 percentage
points to 26 percent support, while the Greens have risen
4.5 percent to 16 percent, their best result since August
2012.

For its part, National has taken a three point knock
to sit at 45 percent support, the lowest level of support at
which it could realistically expect to be able to form a
government. Roy Morgan conducts a rolling nightly poll, so
the result covers the views of 762 people polled in the
period Aug. 18 to 31, so picks up two full weeks of
political reaction to the Hager book, but very little of the
reaction to Key's move against Collins, which saw her resign
last Saturday, Aug. 30.

"If a national election were held
now, the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the
result would be too close to call," the Australian-based
pollster says in a statement with the latest results.

In
this poll, New Zealand First entrenches its position the
post-election kingmaker, with support rising 1.5 percentage
points to 6.5 percent, while Internet-Mana has faded 1.5
percentage points to 1 percent support, which would return
it just one MP, assuming co-leader Hone Harawira wins his
electorate seat of Te Tai Tokerau.

Colin Craig's
Conservatives party also makes ground, up 2.5 percentage
points from the last poll to hit its highest ever score in a
Roy Morgan poll, at 3.5 percent support, but still short of
the 5 percent required to enter Parliament unless a
Conservative candidate does the unexpected and wins an
electorate seat.

The Maori Party's support halved from the
last poll, to 0.5 percent, while the Act party doubled its
support to 1 percent. United Future, previously at 0.5
percent support, registered nil in the latest poll.

If
today's numbers were converted to electoral seats, they
would deliver a 121 seat Parliament, in which National would
have 57 seats, four short of a clear majority, while New
Zealand First would have eight MP's.

Labour would win 32
seats and would be the weak larger partner in any governing
arrangement with the Greens, who would gain 21 seats for a
combined total of 53 seats, eight short of a clear majority,
which New Zealand First would be able to supply on the
results of the latest
poll.

The Wellington-based BusinessDesk team led by former Bloomberg Asian top editor Jonathan Underhill and Qantas Award-winning journalist and commentator Pattrick Smellie provides a daily news feed for a serious business audience.

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