Debutant

If we keep Fyfe, Walters, Pearce, Ryan, Hogan, Tabs and co. fit we should be able to snag 10 wins regardless of the coach.

Brayshaw and Cerra will hit 50 games and start to find consistency. We’ve been a good contested ball side all year and the loss of Hill and Langdon won’t affect that, in fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see Giro emerge as a genuine gut running wingman who has much better skills than Langdon.

Or they could all get injured and we win 5 games max. Interesting times ahead either way.

Brownlow Medallist

He was sacked because we were very unlikely to re-sign him next year, so the sooner we made the change the better.
The fact they they had decided not to re-sign him next year without even knowing were we would end up on the ladder, suggests that finals this year had nothing to do with it.

Premiership Player

As had already been commented upon; injuries and fixture will need to be kind.

IF
-Stephen Hill can take back his wing for 22 games (people forget how good he is!)
-Hogan and Pearce can stay on the park (and others, but those two are crucial)
-22 games from Fyfe and Walters - our two most damaging players.
-We can bring in a couple through trade - eg, Acres and Bolton
-Continued improvement from Brayshaw and Cerra

At Alcock's presser last week we continually made mention about multiple factors on and off field in the decision. About how everything "needs to improve and evolve at this club for us to clearly be elite on and off field". About where the club wanted to be five or ten years in the future.

About how they had been deliberating the issue for months (ie, when we were still in the finals race). And that the club was not in a position to renew the coach's contract after 2020. Carefully worded to make it clear that the club was simply not going to renew no matter what, ie, regardless of what on-field performances were like next year.

To me it seems that even if we made finals (this year or next), he didn't have a long term future at the club.

It also seems to me that we can't rule out something about Ross Lyon's off field behaviour or decision making -- amongst other factors -- that made his position so untenable to this Board.

I reckon if we made finals this year he could still have been dismissed the week after our last game.

Brownlow Medallist

What gets me is the Sack Lyon Brigade have been out in force in 2019 blaming Lyon constantly after our losses.
Lyon is now gone, so why aren't they on this thread talking up our chances in 2020?
I seriously thought that Freo were a lock for finals in 2020 with Lyon coaching and with some luck, 6th or better. That was simply based on the improvements in 2019 from 2018 and considering our shocking run of injuries and progress of our rebuild.

I'm now seeing what I was afraid of ... that is, far too many just wanted Lyon gone without actually having a good hard think of how much better/worse Fremantle were going to be without him in 2020.
It generally feels like they are now afraid that they got what they wanted.

Premiership Player

What gets me is the Sack Lyon Brigade have been out in force in 2019 blaming Lyon constantly after our losses.Lyon is now gone, so why aren't they on this thread talking up our chances in 2020?
I seriously thought that Freo were a lock for finals in 2020 with Lyon coaching and with some luck, 6th or better. That was simply based on the improvements in 2019 from 2018 and considering our shocking run of injuries and progress of our rebuild.

I'm now seeing what I was afraid of ... that is, far too many just wanted Lyon gone without actually having a good hard think of how much better/worse Fremantle were going to be without him in 2020.
It generally feels like they are now afraid that they got what they wanted.

Yet later on he said when asked if Ross would have been sacked if the team had of made the finals he said something like "Yes, Even if we had of gotten into the final's we didn't have the depth to take it far. "

Matthew Pavlich Medallist

Depends who we replace Hill and Langdon with. Get some decent outside run and carry and you’d want at least a 50/50 season I reckon, so at least 11.
BUT if we have the same S&C team, and we’re once again decimated by injury in the back half of the season, then I reckon 8.
But that’s not a pass mark by any means.
12 and a percentage of around 100 would be a pass.

Premium Gold

Yet later on he said when asked if Ross would have been sacked if the team had of made the finals he said something like "Yes, Even if we had of gotten into the final's we didn't have the depth to take it far. "

"This isn't about one decision, its not about particular wins and losses. This has been something that we have deliberated over past months and having arrived at a decision, we are now presenting it today. This is about the future of the club and I think as I have highlighted both Steve and Ross leave a very strong legacy at this club."
...
"The decision that we have made today in relation to our senior coach comes from us not being in a position to take our senior coach forward post 2020. And we are concerned if we did not make this decision today we would be in a sense treading water for twelve months. So we have brought that forward and made that decision today."
...
Reporter: "Why now and not earlier in the season when they lost five out of six games ..."
Alcock, interrupting: "As I indicated, this is not about individual wins and losses and its pretty clear we have had some challenges this season with injury so we need to take that into account. This is about the future of the club as I have indicated for the next five or ten years and where we see ourselves both on-field and off-field."
Reporter: "Just on that was there any hesitance from the club about their inability to potentially retain key players? Because we have lost key players previously and there is some talk about some key guys leaving this year. Was that at all a concern?"
Alcock: "Clearly many things have been considered in it but as I've said and I'll repeat it again: we were not in a position to extend Ross's contract post 2020. That is a decision that we have made. Having made that decision, what we did not want to do was to go into season 2020 with this being out for public debate and the pressure that comes with that. And that in fairness to our coach Ross Lyon frees him up to pursue his future and it also frees our club up with clear direction for the future and that is what we are doing here."
...
Reporter: "Was a lack of skill development one of your concerns as a Board?"
Alcock: "There are many things that were in our consideration. There are not single factors and I'm certainly not going to drift off into discussion of what is [has] made up the final decision."

I don't think four losing seasons in a row helped Ross Lyon at all. Those four losing seasons may well have been the main factor in the sacking.

But Alcock's statements suggest that there may have been more to his dismissal than making finals this year.

Footy Yankee

Too many factors to consider right now to make a prediction. Will hogan be fit round 1? Will we lose both Bhill and Langdon? How will Tabs, Cox, and Pierce look pre-season? Who do we bring in during the trade period? Draft? Who does something stupid in the off season and get themselves suspended? And that doesn't even get to the coach/CEO issue. Who will be the new assistants? Will S&C get the overhaul they desperately need? So many questions...

I don't agree with the OP that because we sacked Ross after a 9 win season, we need to do better right away. Alcock has said repeatedly that the board didn't see him continue past 2020, which implies that even finals next year wouldn't have saved his job. The board wanted (rightly, imo) a new direction for the club and all that this encompasses (change in leadership, culture, vision, etc...).

I'm going to look for a competitive team that can has a game plan that can survive and win on the road in the modern AFL. I want to see our skills improve. I want to see our young players develop and not stagnate (i.e. Cerra). I want to see some of the 3-5 year players take another step forward (i.e. Logue, Cox, Tucker, etc...). I want to see our players stay healthy and the chronic injuries decrease (i.e. Shill). It's a lot to ask, but if all of this happens, I don't see why we wouldn't be in the 9-12 win range with the possibility of finals. Ask me again in 6 months and I'll "nail my colours to the mast".

Purple Admiralty

Wins - losses ?? between 6 and 15 -will depend first and foremost on the 'heart' of our club. Put this on Ross Lyon sacked thread a few minutes ago and will do so here too for those who like me have not seen it (until now).

Premium Gold

"This isn't about one decision, its not about particular wins and losses. This has been something that we have deliberated over past months and having arrived at a decision, we are now presenting it today. This is about the future of the club and I think as I have highlighted both Steve and Ross leave a very strong legacy at this club."
...
"The decision that we have made today in relation to our senior coach comes from us not being in a position to take our senior coach forward post 2020. And we are concerned if we did not make this decision today we would be in a sense treading water for twelve months. So we have brought that forward and made that decision today."
...
Reporter: "Why now and not earlier in the season when they lost five out of six games ..."
Alcock, interrupting: "As I indicated, this is not about individual wins and losses and its pretty clear we have had some challenges this season with injury so we need to take that into account. This is about the future of the club as I have indicated for the next five or ten years and where we see ourselves both on-field and off-field."
Reporter: "Just on that was there any hesitance from the club about their inability to potentially retain key players? Because we have lost key players previously and there is some talk about some key guys leaving this year. Was that at all a concern?"
Alcock: "Clearly many things have been considered in it but as I've said and I'll repeat it again: we were not in a position to extend Ross's contract post 2020. That is a decision that we have made. Having made that decision, what we did not want to do was to go into season 2020 with this being out for public debate and the pressure that comes with that. And that in fairness to our coach Ross Lyon frees him up to pursue his future and it also frees our club up with clear direction for the future and that is what we are doing here."
...
Reporter: "Was a lack of skill development one of your concerns as a Board?"
Alcock: "There are many things that were in our consideration. There are not single factors and I'm certainly not going to drift off into discussion of what is [has] made up the final decision."

I don't think four losing seasons in a row helped Ross Lyon at all. Those four losing seasons may well have been the main factor in the sacking.

But Alcock's statements suggest that there may have been more to his dismissal than making finals this year.

It did not escape my attention, that the outcome of this decision over the next few years lays at the boards feet according to Dale - except 4 years of failure due to the rebuild that they agreed to, doesn't lay at their feet for some reason. So basically, a public sacking filled with mealy mouthed words to tone down the sacking.

He said that Ross would have been gone irrespective of next years outcome. If he got us to a semi-final next year, I call BS to his statement - because you replace him and likely go backwards and your premiership window can disappear and this club needs a premiership. Let alone, what if he won the flag next year, do you think they'd sack him, the fickle fan base would be right behind Ross for several months after a flag and the board would probably have to answer to a please explain from the WAFC, so of course he'd get an extention signed at the end of next year if we went far in the finals.

The only thing of substance in that press conference, was when he said that 4 years of finals is unacceptable. Unacceptable is an absolute term, you do not get a participation award, there are consequences. The rest is filler as it would not do to just walk out and say that Ross is sacked.

Premiership Player

Would expect an 11 win season as a minimum, with few blowout losses. The sign of a good side is never being belted. I would expect to see most wins at home, but would expect some away wins. Seeing most of the side on the field instead of injured is the caveat on this.
Depends a bit on who and what we get for B Hill. Nothing on the Saints list that is a straight swap.