Horns study formula to pass 'bracketology'

UT must bolster Big 12 record down stretch, beginning today.

Myck Kabongo and Texas’ five other freshmen are newcomers to March Madness and the chaos that sometimes precedes it.

Photo By Nick de la Torre/Houston Chronicle

Junior J’Covan Brown has helped the young Horns keep their heads above water this season.

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UT's NCAA hopes

Heading into today’s game against Kansas State (1 p.m., ESPN), Texas’ chances of earning a 14th consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament remain in doubt. Here’s a look at the Longhorns’ résumé so far, and how they might improve it:

AUSTIN — Myck Kabongo is one of the most scrutinized point guards in college basketball, but he's also a 20-year-old from Canada. He's never been immersed in the madness of March, never had reason to care about Selection Sunday, and never learned much of the other lingo, either.

On Friday afternoon, as he and the other Texas Longhorns were preparing for the game that might determine if they make the NCAA tournament, Kabongo was asked if he'd ever heard of “bracketology.”

“No,” Kabongo said. “Why don't you enlighten me?”

He'll be enlightened soon enough.

As much as the Longhorns have avoided paying attention to the postseason implications of their underwhelming past few months, they're about to be confronted with an inescapable truth. If they don't beat Kansas State at the Erwin

Center today, they might miss out on a spot in the NCAA brackets for the first time in 14 years.

“Bracketology” — the slang term coined by a TV network to describe the science of determining who makes the tournament and who gets left out — is a made-up word. But there's nothing contrived about UT's growing sense of desperation.

The Longhorns (15-9, 5-6 in the Big 12) are not yet close to wrapping up an NCAA tournament bid. Their national power numbers (53rd in the Ratings Percentage Index and 28th in the Sagarin computer rankings) are good enough to merit consideration, particularly in a relatively weak 68-team field. But finishing with a 9-9 conference mark is a near imperative.

No team with a losing Big 12 record ever has made the NCAA tournament. With seven games left on its schedule, UT probably needs to finish 4-3 to have a chance.

The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in a home game against Oklahoma and in a road trip to Texas Tech. They'll be underdogs against both No. 6 Baylor and No. 7 Kansas. They also have to travel to OU and Oklahoma State, two mediocre teams who play quite well at home. A split in the Sooner State is the safest assumption.

And if all of that goes according to form? Today's rematch with KSU (17-6, 6-5) could decide everything.

UT didn't handle that so well the last time they faced the Wildcats. Trailing by two points on their final possession in Manhattan, Kan., on Jan. 18, Kabongo and Brown mishandled an exchange and turned the ball over, leading to an 84-80 KSU victory.

The Longhorns went on to lose each of their first seven games decided by six points or less before finally breaking through by beating Texas A&M 70-68 on Monday. Kabongo, one of six freshmen in UT's nine-man rotation, has been better late in games recently, and Brown said it's paying off.

“The young players are starting to get it,” Brown said.

One escape against the struggling Aggies, however, isn't going to convince many people that the Longhorns have figured everything out. In fact, not even UT's coaches believe that yet.

Assistant Rob Lanier said he's been encouraged by signs of progress, but isn't yet ready to declare that the Longhorns now understand everything they need to do to close games out.

“We hope that dynamic is what's happening,” Lanier said. “But it hasn't happened long enough to say it's a trend.”