Rosenthal’s Latest: Trumbo, Orioles, Mallex, Kiermaier, Twins, Gohara

In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides some new twists in the ongoing saga between Mark Trumbo and the Orioles. Trumbo reportedly rejected a four-year proposal worth more than $50MM earlier this offseason, and Rosenthal hears that he recently asked Baltimore for a three-year deal worth about $50MM. Since that request, Trumbo’s camp has indicated a willingness to take an offer between $40-50MM over three years, he continues. As Rosenthal notes, Trumbo does have interest elsewhere. But, the Rockies would have to move an outfielder and shift Ian Desmond off of first base to facilitate a signing, while the Rangers are currently engaged with Mike Napoli and have suggested on multiple occasions this winter that major free-agent signings aren’t in the cards due to financial reasons.

As always, I’d encourage readers to check out Rosenthal’s column in full. Here are a few more highlights…

The Orioles are interested in re-signing Pedro Alvarez to slot in as their DH and replace some of the lost production if Trumbo signs elsewhere. It’s been a quiet market for Alvarez (and most first base/DH types) thus far, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger enjoyed a strong season against right-handed pitching with the O’s in 2016. Last year, “El Toro” batted .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers on the season as a whole. That line includes a dismal .243/.293/.378 showing in a small sample of 41 plate appearances against left-handers. In 334 PAs against righties, Alvarez slashed .251/.326/.522 with 21 of his 22 big flies. From my vantage point, the O’s could use another left-handed stick in their lineup, as right now only Seth Smith, Hyun Soo Kim and Chris Davis project as regulars in the lineup, and Ryan Flaherty is the only lefty on the bench. Adding a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan to handle one outfield slot and moving Smith to a DH platoon with either Christian Walker or Trey Mancini makes a fair amount of sense as well, in my eyes. The O’s are also eyeing left-handed relievers and rotation depth, per Rosenthal.

The Mariners tried to acquire Mallex Smith from the Braves on multiple occasions this offseason and had talks with Atlanta about him as recently as last Friday. However, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto swung a deal for Jarrod Dyson, instead. Dipoto and the Mariners still saw value in Smith and knew the Rays had interest in him as a potential component in a Drew Smyly trade, so Dipoto circled back with Atlanta counterpart John Coppolella over the weekend to get talks rolling once again. (As an aside, Rosenthal counts a staggering 35 trades for Dipoto since taking over as Seattle’s GM in Sept. 2015. Thanks for always keeping us busy, Jerry.)

Despite the fact that the Rays now have a fair amount of center-field depth in Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and newly signedColby Rasmus, a Tampa Bay source tells Rosenthal it’s “very unlikely” that they’ll move Kevin Kiermaier in a trade. Kiermaier won’t turn 27 until April, is controlled through the 2020 campaign and is arguably the game’s top defensive player, making him a highly valuable asset. Defensive metrics are obviously an inexact science, but Defensive Runs Saved pegs Kiermaier at a ludicrous +68 runs in his 2346 Major League innings in center field (and another +13 in his limited corner work). Ultimate Zone Rating has him at +44 in center and +16 in the corners. On top of that, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make an eminently affordable $2.1MM in his first trip through arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. He’s also a plus baserunner, and his bat has been slightly above the league average in his career, as he’s a .258/.313/.425 hitter (105 OPS+ and wRC+).

Despite possessing options at first base and DH, the Twins are keeping tabs on right-handed hitters in that market in the event that a bargain arises. Minnesota has the well-compensated but declining Joe Mauer at first base as well as former KBO superstar Byung Ho Park and switch-hitter Kennys Vargas as options at first and DH. Mauer’s full no-trade clause and $23MM salary means he won’t be going anywhere, and Park’s contract is affordable enough that it makes sense to see if he can rebound after a strong start to the 2016 season was derailed by a wrist injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. Vargas, meanwhile, has shown flashes of potential (particularly as a right-handed hitter) but has yet to cement himself in the Majors. Rosenthal’s report meshes with recent rumors that have connected the Twins to Jose Bautista, though it seems that Minnesota is only open to jumping into that market at a certain price point. It strikes me as unlikely that any of Bautista, Trumbo or Mike Napoli would see his market reach that point.

In a separate column, Rosenthal writes that while he received some negative feedback from scouts on the Mariners’ decision to move left-handed pitching prospect Luiz Gohara in yesterday’s trades with the Braves (and then the Rays), Seattle may have been more willing to part with the 20-year-old due to medical concerns. The would-be Zack Cozart trade from this past trade deadline fell apart due to the Reds’ concerns over Gohara’s shoulder, Rosenthal hears. Certainly, Atlanta is comfortable enough with Gohara’s shoulder, and GM John Coppolella suggested to Rosenthal that he’s not afraid to move on from a trade due to medical reasons. “We have had to walk away from two trades this offseason because of failed medicals,” said Coppolella. “We feel good about the health of [Gohara and left-hander Thomas Burrows].”

Comments

The outfield defense for the Rays will possibly be (from LF to RF): Smith, Kiermaier and Rasmus? Or will Smith start in the minors first so they can get playing time for both Dickerson and Souza to potentially trade mid-season?

The Rays team, while not exciting, should be much, much better than last season. Once Ramos returns, it’s very possible for them to have an average to above average hitter at every position of the line up and average to above average defenders at most positions too. Couple that with a rotation that includes, Archer, Odorizzi, Snell and Cobb and this team could be a playoff contender with a few good breaks.

I agree! A year ago everyone had Baltimore penciled in for fifth place, and every time someone brought up the fact that they should legitimately compete they were mocked. I think the Rays are sneaky good this year if the rotation stays healthy. Going to be an exciting 5-team race to the finish this year!

After watching Lind all last season I wouldn’t wish him on many teams maybe the Yankees or Red Sox. The guy was straight up awful. I couldn’t understand why we kept him all year long. I would have rather watched a rookie go up watch 2 balls go down the center of the plate then swing at something in the dirt and walk back to the dugout with a look if confusion on his face. Writing this it brings back vivid memories. Just awful.

To quote the GM of the next-door Ravens, “right player, right price”. Most of the time, the right player at the wrong price is the wrong player. Trumbo at 3/50 is most certainly the wrong price and, therefore, the wrong player. I’m not a big Pagan fan, but he certainly fits the O’s need: an everyday RF with reasonable on base skill that would allow Seth Smith to DH in a platoon with Mancini. As long as he’s willing to sign a reasonable contract, of course.

You’re wasting value by playing him in a less demanding outfield, however you’re still going to have to pay the price that any other team would to acquire him from the rays. Those teams are getting more of a benefit out of acquiring him due to more difficult cfs. Thus, he is not really a great fit for the cubs.

I know rational thought process is tough for some, but give it a shot and maybe you’ll understand why he’s not really a great fit for Wrigley.

While I typically agree with you on most Cubs points you make, chester, I disagree that he’s a bad fit for Wrigley. A good defender plays good defense. That good defense may be more valuable to other teams, but in no way is wasted or negative.

I do, though, agree that he would have more of an impact to teams with bigger outfields and therefore have higher value in a trade for an interested team bidding against the Cubs. So I CAN see that.

Chester is 100% correct. He never said that KK would be a bad fit for Wrigley. He said it wouldn’t be a great fit and would be wasting his best skill, which is absolutely true. He holds significantly more value for a team with a more difficult/spacious CF.

With a field like Wrigley, you can easily get by with a lesser defender in CF (look at Fowler…). Why would you want to pay a premium for an unnecessary skill set? Obviously you still want solid defense in CF, but you don’t need to pay the extremely high price for THE best guy.

Heck, if defense is your priority out there, why would you not just trot out Almora and see what he can do?

If Atlanta can get Newcomb, Jamie Garcia, Aviles and Scivique out of a Simmons package, imagine what Tampa could get out of Kiermaier.
I know- Ellis was PART of the Garcia package before someone gets their panties in a bunch- but Ellis was an important piece.

I could see the Rays moving Kiermaier…his value is super high and in all reality they will need to do some things to compete…heck I’d follow the White Sox lead and move Archer and Longoria while I was at it too and just restock the young pups that will be ready in a few years

Orioles please let Trumbo walk! Sign Pagan and a cheaper DH type. Need to save money for Tillman, Machado, Schoop extensions in the future. I am not a big supporter in spending heavy at DH and apparently neither is the rest of the AL.

At this point, a Machado extension doesn’t even seem possible. He’s made enough money to just sit back and test the open market in two years, at which point he’ll sign the largest contract in MLB history if he maintains his current pace.

Even an extension would have to be a record-setting contract for him now. Tough to see Tillman foregoing free agency with one year left, as well, though I’d say that’s quite a bit likelier than Machado.

I know that is reality as much as I wish it were not. With so many Orioles contracts expiring within the next two years it is scary to think about what this team could look like in 2019/20. If Tillman, Machado, Jones, Britton and others all walk, the team could spiral downwards fast. I get the feeling that Duquette will hold on to players until the end to try to compete instead of selling off. An aging Chris Davis as the face of your franchise is not good.

It’s funny that everyone is chasing Trumbo and no one cares about Alvarez even though Alvarez is actually slightly better against righties, and both players are identical as far as defensive (non) ability, age, and overall numbers.

Trumbo can probably play at least a passable first base and is good enough against righties and lefties to handle an everyday role. I’m admittedly not very high on him and think his reported $70MM asking price earlier this season was preposterous, but there’s a pretty sizable gap between Trumbo and Alvarez in my mind.

Neither will ever live up to a contract like that and the TV deals that enable the Owners contacts like that are insane.
At least that is how I feel about it, not bitter I just have never ever seen anyone live up to a ‘big’ contract.

What the heck doe “live up to” even mean? Face it, you’re bitter about player salaries. Are you one of those people that believe that salaries are tied to ticket prices? They’re not. Ticket prices are determined by what the owner’s think the public will pay. And even with the player salaries that are being paid, owners are making money hand over fist. I’m not sure what your problem is.

And again, what constitutes living up to the terms of their contract? Mike Trout played for a few hundred thousand early on and put up MVP numbers. Did the Angels compensate him in his first few seasons in value to his performance? It’s the way the system is set up. Players are underpaid early and owners make up that in free agency. It’s not as simple as playing to a contract.

This is coming from an O’s fan — not giving Machado $450??? I was sorry that your farm system consistently misfired, but now it makes more sense. You find one of the best players in the game, who will warrant being paid like it, and you won’t want to pay him like it? If that’s the mindset of the FO, why not trade him with some time left and restock the farm system of more guys that won’t develop and you can trade to become Cy Young winners somewhere else??

Maybe one of them develops into one of the best closers in the game with serious Cy Young consideration, then you can trade him away after he wants to be paid at the level of his value.

Sure, it’d be nice if he were Brooks Robinson, but why are you comparing the two? So what if they’ve played for the same team at the same position?? So you’re not going to pay your current 3B that can also play SS well because he’s not the carbon copy of a player that hasn’t played in 44 years? My Braves did that to a young Jason Heyward, positioning him to be our next Henry Aaron — and look how that turned out. (P.S. – We traded him after he wouldn’t sign an extension for what eventually became 1 AS year of Shelby Miller, Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte & more).

The Orioles should just sign Franklin Gutiérrez to fill out the OF and call it an off-season
Trumbo and Wieters can go to Colorado or wherever.
Zero interest in Pedro Alvarez.
He was not even used right by the O’s last year and neither was Worley for that matter.

Im not sure the details. It could have hung up in other ways or over other prospects…but Cincinnati didnt like the shoulder apparently. Ms got Segura anyway. Im sure I brutally simplified the Gohara situation…but just mentioning that one team atleast has already passed.

Not enough in the medicals to warrant passing up on him. Coppy loves to take advantage of perceived reduced costs at the expense of medical histories. He obtained Max Fried based on that, Manny Banuelos, even took Kolby Allard in the first round at a place no one thought he’d be had he not had injury concerns. Sure, Banuelos hasn’t worked out, but Allard and Fried are both in the top-10 overall prospect list in one of the deepest farm systems in MLB. Both pitched phenomenally in MiLB last year, and honestly, I really think both could be special.

Fried had a 2.47 ERA after May, which was to be expected when shaking off rust from an extended absence, that also includes giving up only 2 runs in 14.2 IP and having 4 consecutive double-digit strikeout games through the playoffs, carrying his team to the championship.

Sure, that 5.21 ERA through May wasn’t pretty, but his rebound was pretty phenomenal, especially when he was one of the top starters in one of the most dominant rotations a Braves minor league squad has seen. Can’t wait to see Soroka, Touissaint, Allard at the next level.

man you braves fans and your arbitrary sample sizes… I’m not sure that looking at era in single A is all that meaningful of a stat with defenses what they are and what I imagine is less than perfect official scoring as well as less than awesome playing fields in some cases. I think K:BB does a better job of really showing what pitchers are capable of at lower levels.

Perhaps you and I have very different definitions of what phenomenal means. I am far more impressed with Allard than Fried, especially considering ARL.

I don’t see the Rays having the financial flexibility to add Carter to DH, especially now that they have Rasmus, Dickerson and Souza for COF/DH and Brad Miller at 1B. Maybe if they worked out a trade for Logan Forsythe, they could look to move Miller to 2B and then sign Carter for 1B using some of the saved money.