Last year's Interim Report to Congress recommended consideration of an extensive list of dependence indicators from a wide range of fields in an effort to examine the range of dependence from complete long-term dependence to total self-sufficiency. No attempt was made to prioritize among them, nor to distinguish between indicators of dependence and the risk factors associated with welfare receipt. In contrast, this first Annual Report attempts to narrow the focus and progress toward the charge of the Welfare Indicators Act.

Chapter I proposes that the multiple dimensions of dependence be assessed with a few key measures and includes for discussion a small set of indicators that, if determined to be useful in tracking welfare dependence, could be analyzed on a regular basis to help address the goal of reducing welfare dependence among families with children. As a starting point for discussion, the Advisory Board on Welfare Indicators suggested consideration of the following proposed definition of dependence. Some summary data on the proposed measures is also included.

A family is dependent on welfare if more than 50 percent of its total income in a one-year period comes from AFDC/TANF, Food Stamps and/or SSI, and this welfare income is not associated with work activities. Welfare dependency is the proportion of all families who are dependent on welfare.

The task of defining welfare dependence for the purpose of tracking it over time is a difficult one. In proposing a definition, the Advisory Board grappled with any number of issues. Acknowledging that simple recipiency is not a good measure of dependence, that dependence is not a single point but a continuum, that its multiple dimensions preclude a single measure of dependence, and that people dependent on private transfers are not at issue, the Advisory Board recommended that some arbitrary choices be made to advance the discussion.

The proposed definition is not without its limitations, if for no other reason than the complexity of the task. Many difficulties with the proposal revolve around data availability issues, which are discussed in Chapter IV. The seriousness of the issue is complicated by the challenge to identify a small set of indicators. This report recognizes that the definition is, at this point, only a proposal for discussion. For that reason, this chapter includes a broader set of program-related indicators of recipiency and dependence.

Indicators in this chapter focus exclusively on recipients of cash and nutrition assistance. They reflect both the range and depth of dependence through data relating recipients' level of welfare income, amount of earnings, duration of receipt, participation in other assistance programs, and participation in the labor force. A brief description of each indicator is included, along with trend data where available and a graphical illustration.

This indicator captures the degree of dependence by examining total family income and the percentage of total family income from means-tested assistance programs.

Figure IND 1a. Percent of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, 1993

Eighty-three percent of the total population received no means-tested assistance in 1993. Table IND 1a reveals a similar pattern for 1992 (83 percent), 1990 (86 percent) and 1987 (85 percent).

For all persons who received some assistance, most received 25 percent or less of their total family income from AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI (9 percent). Table IND 1a shows similar percentages for other years (9 percent in 1992, 8 percent in 1990, 8 percent in 1987).

Table IND 1a shows that a larger percentage of non-Hispanic blacks received more than 50 percent of their income from means-tested assistance than Hispanics or non-Hispanic whites in all four years.

As further shown in Table IND 1a, somewhat larger percentages of children age 0 to 5, compared to children of other ages, lived in families that received more than 50 percent of their total income from means-tested assistance programs.

Table IND 1a. Percent of Total Income from Means-Tested Assistance Programs for the Total Population, Selected Years

0%

> 0% and

> 25% and

Total

> 50% and

Total

<= 25%

<= 50%

> 50%

<= 75%

> 75%

1993

All Persons

83.0

9.5

2.7

4.8

1.5

3.4

Non-Hispanic White

89.1

7.0

1.6

2.3

0.9

1.4

Non-Hispanic Black

58.2

18.4

7.1

16.3

4.3

12.0

Hispanic

66.1

17.6

6.1

10.3

2.9

7.4

Children Age 0 - 5

71.0

12.8

4.6

11.6

3.1

8.5

Children Age 6 - 10

76.0

11.0

3.9

9.2

2.1

7.1

Children Age 11 - 15

77.4

11.1

4.3

7.3

2.0

5.2

Women Age 16 - 64

82.7

9.6

2.7

5.0

1.5

3.5

Men Age 16 - 64

88.0

8.4

1.4

2.1

0.9

1.2

Adults Age 65 and over

87.8

7.6

2.6

2.0

0.9

1.2

1992

All Persons

83.1

9.3

2.7

4.9

1.4

3.5

Non-Hispanic White

89.0

6.8

1.8

2.4

0.8

1.6

Non-Hispanic Black

59.0

18.3

6.9

15.9

4.1

11.7

Hispanic

66.7

17.6

5.1

10.5

2.5

8.0

Children Age 0 - 5

71.1

12.1

4.6

12.2

3.0

9.3

Children Age 6 - 10

76.2

10.7

3.6

9.5

2.6

6.9

Children Age 11 - 15

76.8

11.9

3.8

7.5

2.1

5.4

Women Age 16 - 64

83.0

9.2

2.8

5.0

1.3

3.7

Men Age 16 - 64

88.2

8.2

1.6

1.9

0.7

1.3

Adults Age 65 and over

87.4

8.0

2.5

2.0

1.0

1.1

1990

All Persons

85.9

7.9

2.0

4.2

1.2

3.0

Non-Hispanic White

91.1

5.7

1.1

2.1

0.6

1.5

Non-Hispanic Black

63.4

16.0

6.0

14.6

5.2

9.3

Hispanic

70.5

16.8

4.4

8.3

2.1

6.2

Children Age 0 - 5

76.0

11.0

2.8

10.3

2.4

7.9

Children Age 6 - 10

79.8

9.2

2.6

8.5

2.4

6.0

Children Age 11 - 15

81.2

9.6

2.8

6.4

1.8

4.5

Women Age 16 - 64

85.9

7.7

1.8

4.6

1.3

3.2

Men Age 16 - 64

90.5

6.7

1.3

1.5

0.5

1.0

Adults Age 65 and over

87.9

7.4

2.8

1.9

1.0

0.9

1987

All Persons

85.1

8.2

2.1

4.7

1.3

3.3

Non-Hispanic White

90.7

5.8

1.3

2.2

0.9

1.3

Non-Hispanic Black

59.1

18.7

6.5

15.7

3.9

11.8

Hispanic

71.7

13.6

3.8

10.9

2.2

8.7

Children Age 0 - 5

75.5

10.9

3.7

10.0

2.7

7.3

Children Age 6 - 10

76.8

10.5

2.6

10.1

2.8

7.3

Children Age 11 - 15

80.2

9.2

2.6

8.0

1.6

6.4

Women Age 16 - 64

85.6

7.9

1.9

4.6

1.1

3.5

Men Age 16 - 64

89.9

6.8

1.4

2.0

0.8

1.2

Adults Age 65 and over

86.4

8.6

2.5

2.6

1.4

1.2

Note: Means-tested assistance includes AFDC, SSI and Food Stamps. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included under AFDC. Total > 50% includes all persons with more than 50 percent of their income from these means-tested programs.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1987, 1990 and 1992 panels.

Figure IND 1b. Percent of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

For half of all recipients, AFDC and Food Stamps did not comprise more than 50 percent of total income at any time between 1982 and 1991. This was true for 55 percent of all recipients between 1972 and 1981.

The percentages of recipients who received more than 50 percent of total income from AFDC and Food Stamps for 6 to10 years are considerably smaller for all groups than the percentages for 1 to 5 years.

As shown in Table IND 1b, of child recipients, the percentage of black children in families who did not receive more than 50 percent of their income from AFDC and Food Stamps in any year increased across the two time periods (24 to 31 percent). In comparison, the same percentages for non-black children decreased substantially across the two time periods (50 to 37 percent).

Table IND 1b. Percent of Recipients with More than 50 Percent of Income from AFDC and Food Stamps by Number of Years

All Recipients: 1972 - 1981

All Recipients: 1982 - 1991

Years

All Recipients

Black

Non-Black

All Recipients

Black

Non-Black

0 Years

55

44

62

50

43

54

1 - 2 Years

22

22

22

23

21

25

3 - 5 Years

14

19

11

15

17

14

6 - 8 Years

5

9

3

9

12

6

9 - 10 Years

4

7

2

4

7

2

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Children 0 - 5 in 1972: 1972 - 1981

Children 0 - 5 in 1982: 1982 - 1991

Years

All Child Recipients

Black

Non-Black

All Child Recipients

Black

Non-Black

0 Years

39

24

50

34

31

37

1 - 2 Years

25

27

23

28

19

35

3 - 5 Years

21

27

17

16

18

15

6 - 8 Years

6

9

4

13

19

9

9 - 10 Years

9

12

6

8

14

4

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1972 - 1991.

Figure IND 1c. Percent of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1992

Not surprisingly, poorer families received a larger percentage of their income from transfer programs and Food Stamps while wealthier families received a larger percentage of their income from earnings.

Poor individuals (less than 100 percent of poverty) received 41 percent of their total family income from means-tested assistance programs (transfer income and Food Stamps). In contrast, the percentage for those who are at least 200 percent above the poverty line is much lower (less than one percent).

Those living in deep poverty (total family income less than 50 percent of the poverty line) relied heavily on transfer income from AFDC and SSI (36 percent of total family income) as well as Food Stamps (35 percent of total family income).

The composition of income for all poor persons (less than 100 percent of poverty) is significantly different than that for those living in deep poverty (less than 50 percent of poverty). For example, the percentage of income from earnings for all poor individuals is nearly twice the percentage for those in deep poverty. The percentage of income from transfer programs is about two-thirds and the percentage of income from Food Stamps is less than half the percentage for the very poor.

Table IND 1c. Percent of Total Income from Various Sources by Poverty Status, 1992

<50% of Poverty

<100% of Poverty

<150% of Poverty

<200% of Poverty

200%+ of Poverty

All Persons

Transfer Income

35.5

23.9

12.7

7.5

0.2

Food Stamps

34.6

16.6

7.9

4.4

0.0

Earnings

21.8

41.4

56.9

65.9

83.2

Other Income

8.1

18.2

22.5

22.2

16.5

Average Income

$6,269

$9,694

$12,796

$16,113

$54,915

Racial Categories

Non-Hispanic White

Transfer Income

28.0

17.9

9.0

4.8

0.2

Food Stamps

31.6

13.5

5.8

2.8

0.0

Earnings

32.9

46.0

56.6

65.4

82.4

Other Income

7.5

22.6

28.6

27.0

17.4

Average Income

$4,957

$8,731

$12,133

$15,935

$55,769

Non-Hispanic Black

Transfer Income

40.2

31.8

20.6

14.1

0.7

Food Stamps

39.8

22.6

13.0

8.6

0.1

Earnings

11.2

29.5

47.6

58.5

89.1

Other Income

8.8

16.1

18.7

18.8

10.1

Average Income

$7,254

$10,475

$12,859

$15,707

$46,183

Hispanic

Transfer Income

39.2

23.3

12.6

8.8

1.0

Food Stamps

32.8

14.8

7.8

5.2

0.1

Earnings

21.4

48.4

66.2

73.1

88.9

Other Income

6.6

13.5

13.5

12.8

10.4

Average Income

$7,236

$10,970

$14,511

$17,157

$46,749

Age Categories

Children Age 0 - 5

Transfer Income

39.1

30.0

17.4

10.5

0.2

Food Stamps

37.4

21.4

11.9

7.0

0.1

Earnings

17.2

38.7

59.2

71.9

91.7

Other Income

6.3

10.0

11.5

10.5

8.0

Average Income

$7,298

$10,932

$14,149

$17,841

$57,627

Children Age 6 - 10

Transfer Income

35.5

27.5

14.5

8.4

0.2

Food Stamps

36.9

20.6

10.4

5.8

0.0

Earnings

16.4

37.7

60.0

72.6

90.7

Other Income

11.1

14.3

15.1

13.2

9.1

Average Income

$8,484

$11,684

$15,329

$19,196

$60,301

Children Age 11 - 15

Transfer Income

38.3

24.1

12.9

7.8

0.2

Food Stamps

35.6

17.9

9.2

5.4

0.0

Earnings

15.7

42.4

61.9

70.7

91.5

Other Income

10.3

15.5

15.9

16.1

8.4

Average Income

$7,647

$11,711

$15,499

$19,347

$61,133

Women Age 16 - 64

Transfer Income

35.9

24.9

13.6

8.2

0.2

Food Stamps

33.7

16.5

8.1

4.6

0.0

Earnings

22.6

42.3

59.0

68.1

86.7

Other Income

7.8

16.3

19.2

19.1

13.1

Average Income

$5,573

$9,148

$12,332

$15,573

$55,057

Men Age 16 - 64

Transfer Income

24.0

15.3

8.1

4.7

0.2

Food Stamps

27.4

11.4

5.1

2.7

0.0

Earnings

46.5

56.1

66.9

74.9

88.0

Other Income

2.2

17.3

19.8

17.7

11.7

Average Income

$4,006

$8,815

$12,679

$16,412

$56,796

Adults Age 65 and over

Transfer Income

12.2

16.5

9.1

5.9

0.4

Food Stamps

3.1

3.8

1.5

0.8

0.0

Earnings

13.5

3.0

5.9

7.9

25.1

Other Income

71.2

76.7

83.4

85.4

74.5

Average Income

$2,912

$6,168

$8,404

$10,570

$40,077

Note: Transfer income is defined as AFDC and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included under AFDC. Other income is non-transfer, non-earnings income such as child support, alimony, pensions, survivor benefits, interest and dividends. Poverty status categories are not mutually exclusive. Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1992 panel.

Whereas other indicators (Indicator 1a) illustrate the depth of dependence in a single year, this indicator reflects changes in the level of dependence over two years.

Figure IND 2. Changes in the Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance from 1992 to 1993

Forty percent of first AFDC spells with no employment lasted a total of 1 to 3 months.

Over two-thirds (70 percent) of first AFDC spells with no employment ended within a year.

Sixteen percent of first AFDC spells with no employment lasted 20 or more months.

Table IND 2. Changes in the Percent of Income from Means-Tested Assistance from 1992 to 1993

From Light to Heavy Usage

From Heavy to Light Usage

All Recipients

2.9

5.5

Racial Categories

Non-Hispanic White

2.1

7.7

Non-Hispanic Black

2.4

3.6

Hispanic

5.6

2.9

Age Categories

Children Age 0 - 5

5.4

6.2

Children Age 6 - 10

3.3

5.0

Children Age 11 - 15

3.5

4.2

Women Age 16 - 64

3.5

5.9

Men Age 16 - 64

1.7

6.3

Adults Age 65 and over

0.3

2.2

Note: Light usage is some receipt up to 25 percent (but greater than 0 percent) of total income from means-tested assistance in a year and heavy usage is greater than 50 percent of total income from means-tested assistance in a year. Means-tested assistance includes AFDC, Food Stamps and SSI. While only affecting a small number of cases, general assistance income is included under AFDC.

In contrast to the indicator on duration of spells of means-tested assistance (Indicator 5), this indicator of dependence spell duration combines information on spells of receipt of means-tested assistance and paid employment.

Figure IND 3. Duration of First Spells that Combine AFDC Receipt and no Employment, 1983-1989

In 1993, 44 percent of individuals who received AFDC, 56 percent of individuals who received Food Stamps, and 37 percent of individuals who received SSI were in families with at least one person in the labor force.

A much smaller percentage of individuals who received AFDC, compared to Food Stamps and SSI, were in families with at least one full-time worker.

As shown in Table IND 4, much smaller percentages of adults age 65 and over were in families with at least one full-time worker for all receipt categories.

Table IND 4 shows for all recipient groups, a somewhat larger percentage of Hispanics relative to non-Hispanic blacks were in families with at least one full-time worker.

Over one-quarter of AFDC (30 percent), Food Stamp (33 percent), and SSI spells (26 percent) were short spells lasting less than 4 months.

Over one-half of all AFDC (55 percent) and Food Stamp spells (58 percent) lasted less than one year. In contrast, only 35 percent of SSI spells ended within one year. The percentage of SSI spells that lasted 20 or more months is almost twice the percentage of AFDC and Food Stamps spells that lasted this long. As noted earlier, compared to AFDC and Food Stamps, SSI is designed to provide longer-term assistance.

As shown in Table IND 5, for AFDC and Food Stamp spells, non-Hispanic whites have larger percentages of short spells lasting less than 4 months and smaller percentages of longer spells lasting 20 or more months, compared to non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics.

Table IND 5 also shows that compared to adults age 16 to 64, children age 0 to 15 have a larger percentage of AFDC and Food Stamp spells lasting 20 or more months.

Note: Spell length categories are not mutually exclusive. Spells separated by only 1 month are not considered separate spells. Due to the length of the observation period, actual spell lengths for spells that lasted more than 20 months cannot be observed. Data on SSI recipiency for children is not available.

Lifetime welfare receipt often occurs in more than one episode. Indicators that measure the duration of receipt over a lifetime further reflect the depth of dependence.

Figure IND 6. Percentage of AFDC Recipients with Long-Term Receipt

In both nine-year time periods, almost half of all recipients received AFDC in only one or two years.

Compared to non-black recipients, smaller percentages of black recipients experienced AFDC receipt of 1 to 2 years while larger percentages experienced longer-term AFDC receipt of 6 to 10 years in both nine-year time periods.

Table IND 6 shows that child recipients have smaller percentages of short-term and larger percentages of long-term receipt in both time periods relative to the percentages for all recipients.

Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure

34.8

27.9

21.6

Other adults' work hours decreased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure

4.7

7.9

11.4

Householder acquired work limitation

18.1

15.6

23.5

Other transfer income dropped by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)

4.5

6.5

4.1

Changed state of residence

4.5

10.6

5.4

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.

Nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of first AFDC spells that began between 1986 and 1991 were associated with the householder acquiring a work limitation. This is higher than the percentages for earlier spells in 1973 - 1979 (18 percent) and in 1980 - 1985 (16 percent).

The percentage of first AFDC spells associated with a first birth to an unmarried, non-cohabiting mother is similar for spells beginning in 1980 - 1985 (21 percent) and for spells beginning in 1986-1991 (22 percent). The corresponding percentage for first spells beginning in 1973 - 1979 is much higher (28 percent).

The percentage of first AFDC spell beginnings associated with a 500 hour or more decrease in the work hours of one or more other adults (not the mother) decreased between 1973 - 1979 (35 percent) and 1986 - 1991 (22 percent).

Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, but no change in family structure

21.8

16.8

16.7

Other adults' work hours increased by more than 500 hours, and a change in family structure

6.5

10.3

5.8

Householder no longer reports work limitation

13.0

19.2

15.8

Other transfer income increased by $1,000 or more (in 1996$)

5.0

5.5

5.8

Changed state of residence

5.9

11.0

5.9

Note: Events are defined to be neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. Work limitation is defined as a self-reported physical or nervous condition that limits the type of work or the amount of work the respondent can do.

Source: Unpublished data from the PSID, 1968 - 1992.

In the 1973 - 1979 period, a greater percentage of spell endings were associated with an increase in work hours for other adults (22 percent) as compared to mothers (15 percent). In the more recent time period (1986 - 1991) a greater percentage of spell endings were associated with an increase in mother's work hours (27 percent) compared to other adults (17 percent).

For spells beginning in the 1986 - 1991 period, the percentage of spell beginnings associated with acquiring a work limitation (24 percent, as shown in Table IND 8a) is much higher than the percentage of spell endings associated with no longer reporting a work limitation (16 percent, see above).

he rate of receipt reflects an important aspect of dependence by measuring the extent to which various population subgroups rely on the major means-tested programs.

Figure IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population

In all years between 1970 and 1996, the percentage of all children who received AFDC is much larger than that for adults age 18 to 59.

Participation for children under age 18 increased substantially between 1970 and 1976. While remaining relatively stable through most of the 1980s, the trend again increased dramatically from 1990 to 1994 before declining to its current level.

Table IND 9a shows that between 1994 and 1996 the percentage of all children who received AFDC decreased almost one and a half percentage points (from 14.1 percent to 12.5 percent).

Table IND 9a. AFDC Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1992

1994

1995

1996

All (under 59)

4.2

6.0

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.5

6.4

6.6

6.2

5.7

Adults (18 to 59)

1.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.6

Children (under 18)

7.9

11.5

11.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

13.9

14.1

13.5

12.5

Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9a are included in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Office of Planning, Research, and Evaluation, Characteristics and Financial Circumstances of AFDC Recipients: Fiscal Year 1995 and earlier years, (Current data available online at http://www.acf.dhhs.gov/programs/ofa/content.htm).

Figure IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of Population

In all years between 1980 and 1995, the percentage of all children who received Food Stamps is much larger than that for all adults.

Similar trends existed for each age group: children under 18, adults age 18 to 59 and adults 60 and older. The percentages for each group declined between 1984 and 1988, each peaked in 1994 and declined thereafter.

Table IND 9b. Food Stamp Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1995

Total (all ages)

8.4

8.8

8.8

8.1

7.6

8.0

9.9

10.5

10.1

Adults (60 and over)

4.9

4.4

4.5

4.1

3.7

3.6

4.0

4.5

4.4

Adults (18 to 59)

5.6

6.0

6.3

5.7

5.3

5.6

7.2

7.7

7.3

Children (under 18)

15.5

15.3

16.8

15.7

14.8

15.8

20.2

21.2

20.2

Note: Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9b are included in the table.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Service, Office of Analysis and Evaluation, Characteristics of Food Stamp Households: Fiscal Year 1995 and earlier years.

Figure IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population

In all years between 1974 and 1996, the percentage of adults 65 and older who received SSI is much larger than that for all other age groups.

Trends are similar for all persons under age 64 generally increasing between 1974 and 1996. For those 65 and older, the trend moves in the opposite direction decreasing dramatically from nearly 11 percent in 1974 to 6 percent in 1996.

Table IND 9c. SSI Recipients as a Percent of the Population, Selected Years

Ages

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Total (all ages)

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

Adults (65 and over)

10.8

9.3

7.4

6.9

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.3

6.2

Adults (18 to 64)

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

Children

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.5

Note: Children includes some recipients 18 and older who are students. Only selected years of data presented in Figure IND 9c are included in the table.

Source: Social Security Administration, Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement, various years,(Data available online at http://www.ssa.gov/statistics/ores_home.html).

Not all eligible households participate in means-tested programs. This indicator reflects "take- up rates" - the number of families that actually participate in the program as a percent of those who are eligible.

Figure IND 10a. AFDC Caseload as a Percent of Eligible Families

The percentage of all eligible families who participated in AFDC declined 3 percentage points (from 80 percent to 77 percent) between 1981 and 1987. Between 1987 and 1989, the percentage of eligible families participating in AFDC increased substantially, from 77 percent to 84 percent. After reaching a peak of 86 percent in 1992, the percentage declined in 1993 and remained stable in 1994.

Table IND 10a. AFDC Caseload as a Percent of Eligible Families

1981

1983

1985

1987

1988

1989

1990

1992

1993

1994

Average Monthly

Eligibles

3,097

2,848

2,917

2,914

2,923

3,168

3,259

4,101

4,085

4,188

Average Caseload

3,871

3,651

3,692

3,784

3,748

3,771

3,974

4,768

4,981

5,046

Participation Rate

80

78

79

77

78

84

82

86

82

83

Source: Number of eligibles estimated by the Urban Institute using TRIM model simulations. Caseload based on data from U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families.

In all years, larger percentages of children in eligible households received Food Stamps compared to other age groups, and smaller percentages of the elderly in eligible households received Food Stamps compared to other adults and children.

For disabled persons under age 60, the percentage in eligible households who received Food Stamps increased substantially between 1985 and 1994, from 47 percent in 1985 to 71 percent in 1994.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Service, Trends in Food Stamp Program Participation Rates, various years.

Figure IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients of Eligible Adults

For all adults, the percentage of those eligible who received SSI remained constant between 1993 and 1994 (63 percent) and increased substantially in 1995 (from 63 percent to 70 percent).

For all adults in 1995, a larger percentage of eligible disabled adults in one-person units participated in the SSI program (74 percent) compared to both eligible aged adults in one-person units (65 percent) and adults in married-couple units (52 percent).

Table IND 10c. SSI Adult Recipients by Type as a Percent of Eligible Group

1993

1994

1995

All Adults

63

63

70

One-Person Units - Aged

NA

NA

65

One-Person Units - Disabled

NA

NA

74

Married-Couple Units

NA

NA

52

Note: The figure for married-couple units is based on very small sample sizes-married couple units were only about 5 percent of the adult units in the average month of 1995.

Source: Number of eligibles estimated by the Urban Institute using TRIM model simulations.

This indicator shows how many people have moved onto means-tested assistance programs and how many recipients have moved off means-tested assistance programs over time.

Figure IND 11. Percent of Non-Recipients Moving onto Assistance and Percent of Recipients Moving off Assistance from 1992 to 1993

Figure IND 11 shows the percentage of non-recipients that moved onto assistance. It also shows the percentage of recipients that transferred off assistance. Because there are many more non-recipients than recipients, it is not surprising that transition rates off assistance are significantly higher than those moving onto assistance.

More AFDC recipients moved off the program than recipients of Food Stamps or SSI. One would expect SSI to have a lower transition rate than the other programs because the program is designed in part to provide longer-term assistance to the elderly.

Note: Receipt is measured by at least one month of receipt in a given year and non-receipt is measured as no months of receipt in a given year.

Source: Unpublished data from the SIPP, 1992 panel.

As shown in Table IND 11, a slightly larger percentage of female recipients than male recipients moved off SSI. In contrast to the SSI program, much smaller percentages of female recipients than male recipients moved off the AFDC program and the Food Stamp program.

Table IND 11 shows that a larger percentage of non-Hispanic white recipients moved off assistance than other racial groups receiving assistance. Similarly, non-Hispanic white non-recipients were less likely to move onto assistance than non-recipients of other racial groups.

Another key aspect of dependence is the extent to which parental receipt of means-tested assistance is associated with receipt by their children when the children become adults.

Figure IND 12a. Percent of Females who did NOT Receive AFDC or Food Stamps Between the Ages of 14 and 16 but Received Benefits Between the Ages of 25 and 27

Figure IND 12b. Percent of Females Received AFDC or Food Stamps ALL THREE YEARS Between the Ages of 14 and 16 who also Received Benefits Between the Ages of 25 and 27

These figures show the percent of women who did or did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps (any amount for any month within each year) as children age 14 to 16 and who later received AFDC or Food Stamps as adults age 25 to 27 for one or three years.

Children who received AFDC or Food Stamps were more likely to receive as an adult than children who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps. Children who received AFDC or Food Stamps also were more likely to receive AFDC or Food Stamps for one rather than three years as an adult.

A smaller percentage of children born between 1960 - 1964 who received AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16, received AFDC or Food Stamps as adults compared to children born between 1954 - 1959.

Table IND 12 shows that smaller percentages of male than female children who received AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16 also received AFDC or Food Stamps as adults for both birth-year cohorts.

Table IND 12. Association of Benefit Receipt Between Parents and their Sons and Daughters

Birth Year: Females

Birth Year: Males

1954 - 1959

1960 - 1964

1954 - 1959

1960 - 1964

Percent who did not receive AFDC or Food Stamps between the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in all 3 years from age 25 to 27.

5.0

5.2

2.5

2.3

Percent who did notreceive AFDC or Food Stampsbetween the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in at least 1 year from age 25 to 27.

17.2

10.0

12.2

8.5

Percent who received AFDC or Food Stamps for all 3 years between the ages of 14 and 16who also received AFDC or Food Stamps in all 3 years from age 25 to 27.

35.7

30.8

13.8

13.5

Percent who received AFDC or Food Stamps for all 3 years between the ages of 14 and 16 who received AFDC or Food Stamps in at least 1 year from age 25 to 27.

68.4

61.3

40.8

31.8

Note: Receipt of AFDC or Food Stamps in a year refers to any amount at any point during the year.

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