The global and regional meteorological
indicators, such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO) are likely to oscillate around its neutral position. EI Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to remain
in positive phase. Based upon these climate conditions and
statistically downscaled GCM’s, the salient features of weather for
November 2018 are expected as follows:

The analysis of output from the
models suggests that there is probability of 60% to 70% of above
normal rainfall over northern parts of the country and nearly
normal rainfall over southern parts of the country. There is
also continuation of above normal temperature over central and
southern parts of the country.

Two or three spells of light to
moderate rainfall with snow over the hills is also expected in
the northern half of the country.

Fog/Smog is
likely to prevail in the plain areas of Punjab, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa and upper Sindh.

Drought prevailing conditions are
likely to continue/intensify in Sindh and southwest of
Balochistan.

Note: Keeping in view
the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be
updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Date: October 1, 2018
Time: 1700PST

Monthly Outlook for October 2018

Global climate indicators such as El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain in weak
positive phase during autumn season. Based
upon regional and global climatic conditions and the analysis of
General Circulation Models, following are the main features of
weather outlook in October 2018;

Near normal (±10% of normal) rainfall is expected in the country
with two or three spells of light to moderate rainfall during
October 2018.

Due to rapidly falling temperatures, the snow and glacier melt
contribution to Tarbela reservoir will become minimal.

Due to deficient rainfall and expected water shortage, the
management authorities are advised for the judicious use of
water stocks to meet the requirement for Rabi sowing.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics,
above outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week
of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: September 03, 2018

Weather Outlook
for Pakistan, September –November, 2018

Monsoon airmass is retreating from Pakistan and Western disturbances will gradually extent to southern latitude leaving next 2-3 months as transition period. The global climate indicators such as El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are likely to oscillate around its neutral position during the months from September - November 2018. Based upon these climatic conditions together with the analysis of statistically downscaled GCM’s, the weather outlook for the period September-November, 2018, is expected as below:

Summer Monsoon weather system will gradually diminish during the first fortnight of the September and rains will be scanty. Amount of rainfall is expected to remain slightly below normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, central & lower Punjab and Sindh province. Moderate to severe drought like conditions are expected in lower Balochistan and Tharparkar of Sindh province.

Mountainous region of Gilgit Baltistan and upper KP may receive normal precipitation during the period. However, snowfall season is likely to start at higher elevation by the end of October.

Due to gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to the Indus River will be minimal during the period.

Note: Due to poor monsoon, Mangla reservoir could not be filled to its full capacity. Water shortages are most likely to occur during Rabi sowing season, therefore a judicious use of available water has to be assured.

Spokesperson

Dated: August 03, 2018

Weather Outlook
for Pakistan, August 2018

The El-Niño conditions and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
continue to persist in neutral phase while the Tibetan High is weaker than
normal. Weather outlook for the month of August 2018 is processed incorporating
the global and regional climatic forcings as well as statistical downscaling of
GCM’s. The salient features are given below:

Monsoon systems are likely to weaken gradually
during August, producing less than average rainfall. It will exaggerate the
prevailing drought conditions in parts of Sindh and Balochistan.

Less than average rainfall is expected to occur in
the catchment areas of the major rivers which may be a matter of great
concern especially in Mangla Dam filling.

Monsoon is most likely to decline further in
September.

Note: The
outlook is processed based upon recent data. Following the changing behaviour of
different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly
basis i.e. by the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: July 09, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, July 2018

The global models indicate the large uncertainty about the evolution of El-Niño during the month of July 2018. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain in the neutral phase, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to fluctuate in positive phase, during next two months. On the basis of these climatic forcings and statistical downscaling of GCM’s the salient features of weather for July 2018 is expected as follows:

·Rainfall is expected to match the long term average to slightly more in northern half of Pakistan. Good rainfall spell are expected during the 2nd and 3rd decade of the month, which may cause urban flooding and flashfloods in some parts of the country.

·Below normal rain is expected, in the lower half of the country, including Sindh and Balochistan.

Note:The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behaviour of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis i.e. by the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: June 08, 2018

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (July – Sep) 2018

Keeping in view the global, regional and local
meteorological indicators, the seasonal outlook for Pakistan
summer monsoon 2018 has been prepared. It is evident from
the model output that monsoon is expected to be more active
during the first half than the second one. However, the most
likely salient features are stated below:

·In northern Pakistan,
rainfall is expected to remain “normal to slightly above normal of
long term average” during first half of the season, and below
normal during second half.

·In
southern Pakistan, rainfall is expected to remain “near normal of
long term average” during first half of the season, and largely
below normal during the second half.

·The
prevailing temperatures trend in Pakistan indicates high probability
of few “Extreme rainfall events” in Punjab, and “GLOF events” in Gilgit-Baltistan/Chitral regions
during monsoon season.

· In the light of “Outlook of Summer Monsoon 2018” and
already prevailing water shortage in the country, the water managers
should take measures for water storages accordingly.

Note:Due to prevailing uncertainties in climate system dynamics the
monsoon seasonal forecast will be updated on monthly basis during
the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: June 01, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan, June 2018

El Nino one of the global climate indicator, is shifting from negative to neutral phase, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is persistent in the positive phase. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain neutral during the month of June 2018. On the basis of these climatic drivers, the salient features of weather for June 2018 is expected as follows;

First Half

·
Intense heat is likely to prevail in most parts of the country, during the first half of June. The temperature will remain 1-2°C above long term average in the plain areas of the country.

·
During the second half of the month, weather is likely to remain wetter than long term average and 2 – 3 rainy spells are likely to occur in upper parts of the country including Northeast Punjab, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu & Kashmir, and Gilgit Baltistan.

·
Temperatures are likely to drop by 2-4 °C as compared to the first half.

Spokesperson

Dated: April 01, 2018

Weather Outlook for Pakistan : April-May 2018

The global climate driver, El Nino is proceeding from negative to neutral phase, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are swinging along its neutral values during the period, April to May 2018. Their impact on the weather pattern also seems not pronounced. The main features of weather for the period April - May, 2018 would be as follows:

·
Slightly below normal rainfall is expected throughout the country during April and May, however, the frequency and intensity of dust storms is likely to remain higher disturbing the harvesting and threshing activities

·
3-4 spells of western disturbances may across the upper parts of the country during April 2018

·
The average temperature is likely to remain above normal throughout the country during the period. The expected rise in temperature during the months of April and May is 1-2°C. The rise in temperature will accelerate the snowmelt in the Northern Areas and subsequent increase in runoff in upper Indus region

·
Heat wave conditions are most likely to affect the major cities occasionally, during the month of April to May 2018

·During winter 2018, snowfall remained 20-25% less than long term average in upper Indus Basin and most of that occurred in February or early March. Due to rise in temperature, water inflow will increase in the Indus and Jhelum Rivers. However, the water reservoir would remain under stress conditions and relevant agencies are advised for the better management of expected water resources during the period

·Deficient rainfall will intensify the drought conditions over south-west Balochistan and may transform into moderate, while the prevailing drought conditions over Thar-parker region of Sindh may exaggerate further, during the month of April –May 2018

Note: -
1. The
Provincial Agriculture authorities are requested to pass on weather forecast to farmers for making risk-free decisions for harvesting and threshing of Rabi crops as well as sowing of Kharif crops.
2.The update of the weather forecast would be provided by the first of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: March 01, 2018

March-2018 Weather Outlook for Pakistan

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO are likely to be in neutral phase, during March-April 2018 (Spring Season) and its effect on the weather pattern is not pronounced.

Outlook for the month of March, 2018 has been prepared, based upon regional and global weather conditions, incorporating the climate system anomalies. Following are the main features of weather expected in March, 2018

·
Upper parts of the country including upper Punjab, FATA, KPK, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) and Kashmir are expected to receive slightly above normal precipitation with snowfall over the hilly areas of KPK, Gilgit Baltistan and Kashmir. Lower half of the country may receive below normal to normal rainfall during the month.

·
Three to four spells of short duration are expected over upper parts of the country to produce precipitation along with thunderstorm, gusty winds and high risk of hailstorm.

·
The average temperatures over the country are likely to be slightly above normal during the month.

·
Moderate drought like conditions over south-west Balochistan may be aggravated to severe and prevailing mild drought conditions over Thar-parker may transform into moderate, due to deficient rainfall.

·
March precipitation is not likely to improve the water stocks in major reservoirs considerably and stress conditions may continue.

Note: - The
outlook for April will be issued during the first week of next month.

Spokesperson

Dated: February 01, 2018

February-2018 Weather Outlook for Pakistan

Global Climate Models show that the prevailing weak La-Nina conditions are
likely to continue during the month and be in transition towards ENSO
neutral during the spring season. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is in
positive phase and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral.
These forcings play an important role in modification of regional weather
pattern including Pakistan. Based upon these conditions weather outlook for
February, 2018 is as follows;

·
Precipitation throughout the country is expected to be near Normal. However
the hilly areas of KPK and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) may receive slightly above
normal snowfall / rain fall during the month.

·
Three to four spells of rainfall are expected during February and amount of
precipitation would be less during the first half as compared to second
half.

·
Day and night time temperatures will gradually increase in February. The
average temperatures over the country are likely to be above normal during
the month.

·
Moderate drought like conditions may prevail over the southern half of the
country due to deficient rainfall.

Note: - The
outlook for March will be issued during the first week of next month.

Spokesperson

Dated: December 28, 2017

January-2018 Rainfall Outlook for Pakistan

The prevailing global climate and weather conditions indicate that weak La
Nina conditions are likely to persist into the first quarter of 2018 and
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to remain positive during the
period.

Based on the prevailing global and regional meteorological conditions, the
rainfall outlook is as follows;

·
Slightly below normal rainfall throughout the country is expected during the
month.

·
The amount of snowfall over the hills in also expected to remain slightly
below normal during January.

·
Two to three spells of rainfall with snowfall over the hills are expected in
the country during the period.

·
Foggy conditions (during morning hours) are expected to prevail in the
plains of Punjab and upper Sindh during the month.

Note: Keeping
in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be
updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: December 07, 2017

Monthly
Outlook for December 2017

Global
climate indicators such as El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in December 2017 and these
conditions are likely to prevail through winter season 2018.

On the basis
of prevailing global atmospheric and ocean conditions, slightly above normal
rainfall in the upper parts and normal rest of the country is predicted
during December 2017.

2–3 spells of rainfall are expected in different parts of the country
with snowfall over the mountainous areas.

Shallow Foggy conditions may prevail in the plains of Punjab and KP
and upper Sindh during the month.

Due
to gradual fall in temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to Indus
will be minimal during the month. However, water availability will improve
gradually due to 2–3 moderate rainfall spells in catchment areas.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month

Spokesperson

Dated: November 06, 2017

Monthly
Outlook for November 2017

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)are in neutral phase. Westerlies are
running on their normal track of mid-latitude.

Outlook
for the month of November, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and
global indicators incorporating the climate system dynamics. Rainfall is
expected to remain less than normal during the month in the country.
Following are the main features of weather outlook in November, 2017;

1Less
than normal rainfall is expected in most parts of Pakistan during the month.

2 One or two spells of light to moderate rainfall are
expected in the northern half of the country.

3. Fog/Smog with variable intensity is likely to
prevail in the plain areas of Punjab , KP and upper Sindh during November.

4. Mean daily
temperatures are likely to remain normal during the month. However, under
Foggy conditions day temperatures will be below average and
nights are expected slightly warmer.

5.
Due to less than normal expected precipitation, surface and ground water
resources may experience further depletion. Due to gradual fall in
temperature, snow and glacier melt contribution to Indus will be minimal
during the month. Water management authorities and users are advised for the
judicious use of water stocks to meet the requirements of the Rabi sowing.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated: October 10, 2017

Monthly Outlook for October 2017

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)are in
neutral phase. Westerlies are running on their normal track of mid-latitude.

Outlook for the month of October, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional
and global indicators incorporating the climate system dynamics. Rainfall is
expected to remain near normal during the month in South Asia including
Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather outlook in October,
2017;

1. Slightly below normal rainfall is predicted in most parts of Pakistan
during the month.

2. Two to three
spells of rainfall with light to moderate intensity are expected in
different parts of the country.

3. Temperatures are likely to remain above normal due to relatively clear
skies.

4. Water resource management authorities are advised for the judicious use
of water stocks to meet
the requirements of the Rabi sowing.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated: September 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for September 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are
prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively.
Neutral phase of IOD phenomenon is expected to prevail in the monsoon
season, however, ENSO is expected to remain in negative phase during coming
autumn/early winter season.

Outlook for the month of
September, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional and global weather
conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics. Monsoon is expected to
remain in weaker phase during the month in South Asia including Pakistan.
Following are the main features of weather in September, 2017:

Near normal rainfall is expected in the
country during the month.

Three to four spells of rainfall embedded
with isolated extreme events are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and
GB. While one to two spells of light to moderate intensity are predicted
in Sindh and Balochistan provinces. These extreme events may generate
floods.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated:
August 01, 2017

Monthly Outlook for August 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and
Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena is expected to
prevail in the monsoon season.

Outlook for the month of August, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional
and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics.
Monsoon is going to enter in weaker phase after mid-August in South Asia
including Pakistan. Following are the main features of weather in August,
2017:

1.
Near normal rainfall in northern half and below normal in southern half
of the country is expected during the month.

2.
Three to four spells of rainfall embedded with isolated extreme events
are expected in upper Punjab, KP, AJK and GB. While one to two spells of
light to moderate intensity are predicted in Sindh and Balochistan
provinces.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated:
July 06, 2017

Monthly Outlook for July 2017

ENSO and IOD neutral are prevailing in the eastern equatorial Pacific and
Indian Ocean, respectively. Neutral phase of both phenomena will continue to
prevail in the monsoon season. These forcing play an important role in
modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of July, 2017 has been prepared based upon regional
and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics.
Following are the main features of weather in July, 2017:

Near normal rainfall is expected during the month of July, 2017.

Three to four spells of monsoon rainfall with thunderstorm and isolated
heavy falls are predicted in Punjab, KP, AJK and GB, while, two spells
are expected in southern parts ( Southeast Sindh and Eastern
Balochistan) of the county during the current month.

Due to warming and excess moisture, weather in plain areas of the
country is likely to remain humid/sultry.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated:
June 14, 2017

Outlook for Summer Monsoon (JAS) 2017

Large uncertainties prevail in the evolution of ENSO and IOD, however, most
of the models are in consensus of neutral phase of phenomena during the
season. Consequent upon prevailing ocean and atmospheric conditions, summer
monsoon rainfall is expected to be normal in the first half and below normal
in the second half of the season, in Pakistan. Based on statistical and
dynamical downscaling of global circulation models, salient features of
outlook for the season (July to September) 2017 are as under;

·
Area weighted rainfall during monsoon season over Pakistan is expected to
fall short of long term average. However, rainfall will be highly variable
over temporal and spatial scale.

·
During July, monsoon rainfall may range in normal limits but less than
normal rainfall is likely in August and September.

·
Less frequent rains in southern half of the country may trigger drought like
conditions.

·
There is a high probability of localized rain spells which may generate
flash flooding in mountainous and sub-mountainous regions.

·
Due to erratic behavior of summer monsoon, extreme precipitation events may
occur at isolated places in the
country, which can result into floods.

·
Localized events of rainfall coupled with rapid melting in the glaciated
regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral may trigger GLOF events.

Note:
The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view the changing behavior
of different Meteorological parameters, the outlook will be updated on
monthly basis i.e. at the first week of each month.

--Sd--

Spokesperson

Dated:
June 08, 2017

Monthly Outlook for June 2017

Large uncertainty prevails in the global models about evolution of El Niño
during monsoon season 2017. Positive phase of Indian Ocean Dipole is likely
to dominate throughout the summer season. These forcing play an important
role in modification of the seasonal weather in the region.

Outlook for the month of June 2017, has been prepared based upon regional
and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics.
Following are the highlights of weather in June 2017:

Northern half of the country is expected to receive more precipitation
than the southern half of the country.

Three-four spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated hailstorms
associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK, KP and
adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with
chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the
country.

Due to intense heating, temperatures in the southern half of the country
are likely to remain slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above
outlook will be updated on monthly basis during the first week of each
month.

Spokesperson

Dated:
May 04, 2017

Monthly Outlook for May 2017

El Niño, one of the global climate drivers, is developing and it is
predicted to be in peak phase in the autumn 2017, while Indian Ocean Dipole
is forecasted to swing within normal limits throughout the summer season.
These forcings play important role in modification of the seasonal weather
in the region.

Outlook for the months of May 2017, has been prepared based upon regional
and global weather conditions incorporating the climate system dynamics.
Following are the highlights of weather in the season;

Northern half of the country is expected to receive slightly above
normal precipitation. 3–4 spells of thunderstorm-rain and isolated
hailstorms associated with windstorm are predicted in Upper Punjab, AJK,
KP and adjoining areas of Gilgit-Baltistan. Hot and dry conditions, with
chances of dust/thunderstorms, will prevail in the southern half of the
country.

Temperatures in the southern half of the country are likely to remain
slightly above normal.

Note: Keeping
in view the rapid changes in climate system dynamics, above outlook will be
updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month

Spokesperson

Dated: April 03, 2017

Outlook for the month of April 2017

Global Climate Indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral in April 2017, however,
the El Nino & Southern Oscillations (ENSO) is in developing phase. Based on
prevailing atmospheric conditions climate outlook of different models
suggest that;

Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country,
resulting in Normal to slightly above normal rainfall over
upper KP, GB, AJK, adjoining Northern parts of Punjab, and hot & Dry
weather is expected in rest of the country.

Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur
at isolated places in the country.

Air temperature is expected to remain 1 - 2oC
above normal in April 2017.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be
updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: March 01, 2017

Outlook for the month of March 2017

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino
& Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to
remain neutral in March 2017. Based on prevailing atmospheric conditions
climate outlook of different models suggest that;

·
Three to four weather systems are likely to pass across the country,
resulting in slightly above normal rainfall over upper KP, GB, AJK, Northern
parts of Punjab and normal rainfall in rest of the country.

·
Snowfall is also expected over high mountains in March 2017.

·
Thunder/hailstorms accompanied with gusty winds are also likely to occur at
isolated places in the country.

·
Air temperature is expected to remain slightly above normal in March 2017.

·
Initial estimates indicate that precipitation is likely to remain normal in
the month of April.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be
updated on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesperson

Dated: February 3, 2017

Outlook for the month of February 2017

Global climate indicators such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), El Nino
& Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to
remain neutral in February 2017. The conditions are in favour of more than
normal February precipitation. Climate outlook of different models suggest
that;

§
Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the country,
resulting in slightly above normal rain/snowfall in February 2017.

§
In
February, more than normal snowfall is expected in mountainous areas of
Upper KP, GB and Kashmir.

§Fog intensity is likely to reduce gradually in plain areas of KP, Punjab
and upper Sindh.

§Precipitation is likely to remain normal in the month of March. However,
rainfall will be more than snowfall.

Note:
The outlook is based upon recent climate data. The outlook will be updated
on monthly basis during the first week of each month.

Spokesman

Dated: January 4, 2017

Outlook for the month of January 2017

Near normal rain and snowfall predicted during January 2017

Neutral ENSO and IOD conditions are prevailing in Pacific and Indian Oceans,
respectively. Global climatic conditions and output of different forecasting
models suggest that;

Two to three weather systems are likely to pass across the upper parts
of Pakistan resulting in near normal rain/snowfall in January 2017.

Fog with variable intensity is likely to prevail in Punjab, Sindh and
plain areas of KP during January.

Situation may further improve as normal rainfall and slightly above
normal snowfall is expected during the month of February.

Note: The outlook is based upon recent data. Keeping in view, the changing
dynamics of the climate system, the outlook will be updated on monthly basis
during the first week of each month.