Roy Roundtree hauled in a 16-yard touchdown pass to cap an improbable fourth-quarter comeback last season against Notre Dame. It came in the first night game in Big House history, gave Brady Hoke his first signature win at the school and set off a wild on-field celebration.

Players and coaches raced around looking for someone -- anyone -- to hug.

Not Jeff Hecklinski.

The Michigan receivers coach paced around trying to find cell service. Moments after the biggest win of his career, he wanted to call his wife. But not to celebrate -- to see if she was OK.

"Our current setup provides a lot of challenges,” said Tom Nevala, chair of the Division I Men’s Ice Hockey Committee and senior associate athletics director at Notre Dame. “You need to find buildings that are neutral sites, have NHL ice and ideally are within close proximity to the host school’s fan base. Right now for the most part, we really need the host to qualify if we are going to have good attendance and atmosphere at our regionals. In an effort to increase attendance, the NCAA has been working with the hosts to try and make tickets more affordable but the nature of neutral sites and non-traditional game times works against us a bit.”

Translated from guy-who-wants-to-keep-his-job to raging bloggerese that is a slavering attack on the current format. I like you, Tom Nevala. You're all right.

His suggestion:

“Personally, I would like to see us move to an on-campus best-of-three series format for the first round,” Nevala said. “The top seeds would host regardless of size of its building. Right now we do it at the conference level and it works very well. There are upsets even with the home ice advantage and the atmosphere for everyone involved would be better. We have such great campus facilities that are such a part of the fabric of college hockey, it’s a shame that the national tourney isn’t played in them.”

Massive improvement, though it does leave you with eight teams and no suggestion as to what to do with them. I've seen other people propose a "super regional" featuring just the two games, but that runs into the same issues. May as well just extend the season a week and do best two-of-three again, then have a Frozen Four.

Unfortunately, Nevala then goes on to say "the coaching body" is "set on having the regional games at neutral sites," which means we must fire every single D-I coach and replace them with people who aren't CHL sleeper agents.

Gambling in this establishment. WHL hammers Portland for benefits over and above the ones they're allowed to give.

Schedule strength so far. Michigan fares well in Luke Winn's latest power rankings:

Michigan's about to fade in this department as they take on an array of low-major teams and struggling Arkansas and West Virginia outfits, but right now you can take Michigan's stats as seriously as any compiled six games into a season. Duke, meanwhile, has basically locked down a one-seed at this point with wins over Kentucky, Louisville, OSU, VCU, and Minnesota. I be like dang.

1. Overall, their percentage of P&R possessions has dropped from 18.0 to 14.5, according to Synergy.
2. P&Rs still make up a big portion of Burke's game, but when he does them, he's passing 55.6 percent of the time, as compared to 44.9 last year. His pass/shoot ratio out of P&Rs is the opposite of what it was in '11-12.
3. His derived offense from all P&R possessions is 1.127 PPP -- way up from 0.978 PPP last season. He has to force fewer shots, and he has better passing options on the perimeter.

I'm surprised the pick and roll was only 18% of Michigan's shot generation last year. I wonder what it was in year two of Darius Morris.

A note on the Dawson stuff: I'm surprised that opinion is divided on whether re-extending an offer to the kid is a good idea. The guy has had a rough go of it this year with his father dying unexpectedly and if Michigan is back in the picture it's because he manned up, went to Michigan, and laid it out. Weigh the twitter blasts against swallowing your pride and doing that as a 17-year-old. If Hoke thinks he's good, he's good. Michigan has been meticulous about getting quality kids after The Process forced them to take a couple fliers on kids they didn't really know.

Meanwhile, the increasingly-infamous Policy about committed recruits visiting other places is way overblown. Dawson got his offer pulled because he was not upfront; Michigan is still recruiting Conley after he decommited. All the policy means is "don't think you're saving a spot in Michigan's class if you're visiting other schools."

Michigan has two states of recruiting:

COMMITTED: Keep out of trouble and keep your grades up and you will be in the class. We will stand by you if you have a bad year or get injured. You do not take visits to other schools. If you do, they automatically move you into the other category.

UNCOMMITTED: If you have an offer they'll continue to recruit you but they can revoke that offer at any time until they move you into the other category by mutual agreement. If your leg explodes tough cookies.

Lacy is a UCLA commitment that was also offered by Michigan this week. His consideration of other schools, however, is not a new development. From the moment he committed to the Bruins back in September he mentioned his plan to still take trips to other campuses. …

"I am committed (to UCLA) and I originally did it because I felt strongly that is where I want to go. But I was upfront with (UCLA assistant) Coach (Adrian) Klemm from the beginning that I would still take trips, and he was OK with that. I just want to make sure I am doing the right thing and making the right decision."

This is an offense against the English language, and that's probably why Hoke doesn't go for it. Also it's a fiction: Lacy is one-way committed to UCLA. He expects UCLA to be committed to him—he would be pissed if the Bruins took some other OL and were like "sorry full up." He reserves the right to flit off to somewhere else late.

Michigan isn't playing that game, and that is the extent of The Policy. You get two categories. Pick one. None of this half-in half-out stuff.

Prognosticator hat. One man's impression of how things will work out:

Conley: MICHIGAN by a nose. Last visit, Oregon doesn't appear to be going for him hard or at all at this point, parents pushing for M. OSU visit just a one-off Thursday instead of a full official.

Dawson: MICHIGAN. Really seemed to regret how things worked out now; doubt Michigan would re-offer without a good idea of how the story ends.

Derrick Green:MICHIGAN. Options: fired coach, fired coach, Ole Miss, place that will be nuked by NCAA in near future. Early enrollment make it very hard for fired coach places to catch up. With the dead period, a guy who gets hired today would have about two weeks to build a relationship. Ole Miss or Michigan? Since the kid isn't from Mississippi that has to be no contest. If it is Ole Miss, I swear to never set foot in that state because I won't be able to leave.

Leon McQuay: Vanderbilt, but if James Franklin gets snapped up by someone else that would probably tip the scales to Michigan.

LaQuon Treadwell: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State. Seems like if he was going to drop to Michigan he already would have. Maybe he's just indecisive.

Michigan adds wildcard or two. That would put them at 25 give or take the status of the longsnapper, who I know I know they said would be getting a full ride but we heard the same thing with Morales; dollars to donuts the deal is he is at the top of the walk-on board permanently. They're at 25 now pending Mike Jones not getting a fifth year and Lewan entering the draft, so even if the LS is on full scholarship it would only take one extra piece of attrition for Michigan to have extra room. That's almost inevitable. You can see that they've offered a half-dozen players lately, mostly OL and LBs. I'd guess they add one or the other, with Cal OL commit Cameron Hunt the random guess I'm making. More likely they will pull someone out of nowhere a la Willie Henry.

It would be weird to have two decommitted guys recommit—in my recollection only one decommit has ever re-upped with Michigan: Will Campbell. But that's the way my wind is blowing to day you guys.

"Wow, is this committee going to have pressure," Livengood said. "The thing that jumps out at me is that there are just four teams, it's not enough of a sample. I was not a proponent of going larger than four, and this changed my mind totally."

Sure you weren't, UNLV dude.

Meanwhile, this committee assembled to prevent mistakes like Stanford getting picked over Oregon last year because Oregon played and lost to LSU while Stanford did not made the exact same mistake in reverse by selecting Oregon over Stanford because Stanford played ND and lost (in overtime on a terrible call) while Oregon played Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech in their nonconference schedule and Stanford has to beat a good UCLA team again to win the Pac-12. Way to reward scheduling, guys.

As always, people in charge of stuff are just in charge of stuff and may or may not deserve to be.

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Bradley proposed looking for a new mascot in 2006. Somebody suggested, um, that. Then again, somebody else suggested a "lesbian seagull" in the comments of that post, so... yeah.

THE THEM

Bradley is, shall we say, a step down in competition from NC State; the Braves finished 7-25 last year, their 2-16 conference record good for last in the Missouri Valley Conference. Returning four starters this season, they should be improved. They should also lose to Michigan, but I probably didn't need to tell you that.

While the talent level isn't tournament-quality (pick a tournament, really), Bradley posts a pretty stellar roster of names. To wit:

Starting point guard and leading scorer Walt Lemon Jr.

Starting guard Dyricus Simms-Edwards

Starting forwards Tyshon Pickett and Will Egolf

Freshman guard Ka'Darryl Bell

And the kicker, sophomore forward Shayok Shayok

Shayok Shayok, yo. He's no Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje, but I'll take it.

While Lemon leads Bradley in scoring, his shooting numbers (51.0 2P%, 18.8 3P%) are down significantly from last season (52.1 2P%, 34.5 3P%) as he's having difficulty honing in from the outside. He's also the team's top distributor, but has had problems with turnovers both last year (24.8% TO rate) and this year (22.3%).

Simms-Edwards is a bit undersized for a 2/3 at 6'3", 200, but Michigan's wings will have to be careful on the drive—Simms-Edwards has 17 steals in just six games. Bradley started a third guard, Jalen Crawford, in their most recent game against Central Michigan; he's just 6'2", 195, so both Tim Hardaway and Nik Stauskas will enjoy a significant size advantage when the Braves go man-to-man. Crawford's played a hair less than half of the available minutes this season, though, so we'll see how often coach Geno Ford goes to this lineup—probably not often considering Michigan's size.

If Ford doesn't start Crawford, he'll put 6'5" senior Jake Eastman at the three; he's shooting a torrid 65.6% inside the arc last year but that's well out of line from his 44.4% mark last year. Otherwise, nothing he does really jumps off the stats page.

The team's best player is probably junior forward Tyshon Pickett, one of only two players on the team to take more than 40% of his shots at the rim; he converts his two-pointers at a 54.5% clip and is solid on the boards, especially on the offensive end. 6'9" center Will Egolf is very good on the defensive glass (22.2 DR%) but nearly invisible as an offensive rebounder (4.7%) due to the fact that he's mostly a spot-up shooter—over 75% of his shots are jumpers.

In fact, much of this game will take place on the perimeter on both ends of the floor. Bradley takes only 30% of their shots at the rim, while opponents are also staying mostly on the outside—probably because the Braves are currently ceding a 37.6 3P% while holding opponents to just 39.8% inside the arc. Michigan should be able to fare better from two than Bradley's previous opponents; this also could be a game where they're content to make it rain.

THE RESUME

Bradley is 5-1 on the year, but they've only played one game against a top-200 team by KenPom standards: #101 South Florida, which beat them by 19. They do share a common opponent with Michigan: the Braves defeated IUPUI, a team the Wolverines pounded by 37 at Crisler, by seven points, albeit on the road. Their other wins came against such luminaries as Central, Tennessee Martin, Texas Pan American, and Eastern Illinois.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Here are the four factors numbers from both last and this year:

Off. 11-12

Off. 12-13

Def. 11-12

Def. 12-13

eFG%

44.4 (321)

50.3 (112)

51.4 (265)

46.0 (109)

Turnover %

20.3 (174)

16.6 (24)

19.2 (224)

23.3 (85)

Off. Reb %

26.1 (318)

34.0 (124)

30.3 (140)

32.0 (166)

FTA/FGA

36.3 (171)

35.4 (173)

32.3 (75)

33.3 (131)

This year's numbers are likely inflated by the soft schedule. Last year's numbers are bad, mmmkay? If a spot-up shooting squad can't really shoot, that's a problem.

THE PROTIPS

Stop Pickett. Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary both had trouble with NC State's bigs around the basket; while Pickett isn't an NBA talent like C.J. Leslie, he's a competent offensive player and the biggest threat on this Bradley team. If GRIII and McGary can't slow him down, it's time to be concerned about Michigan's interior defense moving forward. More likely, they had a rough outing against a very talented team, and a power forward who's three inches shorter than Leslie and not a freak athlete should pose less of a problem.

Don't settle. Given Bradley's generosity in ceding the three this year, Michigan could become content to launch bombs without really attacking the basket. While Pickett and Egolf are both good shot-blockers, however, they're 6'6" and 6'9"—not the most intimidating front line that the Wolverines have come across. Hardaway, especially, needs to continue to go at the tin instead of settling for long jumpers, which he can get whenever he wants against an undersized backcourt anyway.

Keep doing what you've been doing. I mean, yeah.

Shayok Shayok! Likely won't contribute much. Just wanted to take the chance to type his name again. Though he has hit all three of his shots this year, so... Shayok Shayok!

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 15

Elsewhere

What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + FLEX TE + fullback.

PACK YOUR BAGS

Players who will be starting unless injury derails them. Early entry possibilities are not taken into account because they're too unpredictable this far out.

1. OLB Jake Ryan, Sr*

By 2014, Jake Ryan's hair will reach the small of his back and his terror will reach former Yugoslav republics, spawning an incomprehensible evil only he can defeat.

2. ILB Desmond Morgan, Sr

Joe Bolden will spot him frequently but extremely hard to see anyone displacing him once he moves to a more natural MLB spot. May or may not be Demens++.

3. FLEX Devin Funchess, Jr

I mean surely this will be the year he breaks Jim Mandich's record, if it isn't slap me and call me Tressel what's that I couldn't read your very clear email detailing NCAA malfeasance

4. CB Raymon Taylor, Sr

At this point has learned what a zone is and drops into it impeccably. Still large, probably playing field corner, does not have to be covered up as much deep. I call this guy RAYMON because that's his name.

5. QB Devin Gardner, Sr.*

In retrospect ranked too low in the last piece since like dude is kind of on pace to be #1 in passer rating if given enough sample size and competition is true freshman. Quality fifth-year option not starting lol you crazy.

6. T Ben Braden, So*

Road-grading tackle will have competition from only then-redshirt-freshmen Chris Fox and Logan Tuley-Tillman; LTT is a project who will be at least a year from ready and Fox may be more of a left tackle type.

7. CB Blake Countess, Jr*

Should be fully healthy in 2014 and in the starting lineup no problem. Ligament stuff should be fully healed, and Countess is still the guy who locked down a starting job as a freshman and was headed on a stardom track before cruel fate intervened.

8. NT Ondre Pipkins, Jr

Would have to bust spectacularly to not ease into the starting lineup; only other competition is Willie Henry and maybe Maurice Hurst, and Pipkins is clearly ahead of Henry now.

9. G Kyle Kalis, So*

If Kalis isn't starting at guard by his sophomore year, some very strange things will have happened, or an injury, which is not strange. But really I call this guy TIGER TESTICLES because Brady Hoke is searching for him on the black market to acquire his toughness via sympathetic magic.

UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS

10./11. K/P Matt Wile, Sr

Multi-purpose kicker has proven himself an adequate or better punter and displayed a big leg on kickoffs and certain long field goals. May lose one job to an as-yet-undetermined freshman specialist but should start at one spot or the other.

12. ILB James Ross, Jr

In 2014 James Ross sees the playcall in his head, Terminator-HUD style, and ruthlessly exterminates any living thing that gets in his way. His one weakness is Lou Holtz. In the distance, a wolf cries. Ross feels the same kinship he always does, scratching behind his ear.

13.FB Joe Kerridge, Jr.*

Hopkins will be out the door and Houma is always going to be smaller than Kerridge. When Michigan needs a linebacker plowed, Kerridge will get the call first. Fullback is a veteran's position.

14. S Jarrod Wilson, Jr

With Marvin Robinson and Thomas Gordon out the door, Wilson will be the most experienced safety on the roster; as a four-star he's got the cred and probably a year of starting under his belt. Does not know Aaron Paul; Still 'shopped, rookie.

15. TE AJ Williams, Jr

Presumably at this point he will be a sixth offensive lineman or on the bench behind year two Jake Butt; both will get playing time; Williams figures to get more. Fish fear still reading zero. Or thereabouts, fear may increase if blocking technique does not.

FAIRLY SAFE BET

16. T Erik Magnuson, So*

Touted Californian a better fit at left tackle than Braden and has a clear path to start. Name reminds Hoke of wearing a polo shirt on his trip to the North Pole, which will give him the edge on the redshirt freshmen.

17. WR Amarah Darboh, Jr.

Dileo, Gallon, and Jackson graduate, leaving Jerald Robinson, Darboh, and Chesson plus whoever ends up in the incoming recruiting class. Darboh did not redshirt and is the most likely guy to be a starter on the outside.

18. C Jack Miller, Jr*

A rare downgrade from a projected starting job on 134, Miller's competition gets fierce in 2014 with Bars and Kugler both pressing from behind. He should hold onto the job but if he's smaller than the other guys and that's just not changing…

19. RB Deveon Smith, So.

Smith is currently the best bet to see a majority of the carries in 2014. Rawls may be a fullback, and Smith fits the MANBALL paradigm better than Hayes or Norfleet. Derrick Green may supplant him here.

20. S Dymonte Thomas, So

Furman and Gordon exit, leaving Thomas fending off Jeremy Clark and Allen Gant. Thomas is the most-hyped safety Michigan's brought in for a long while and has the athleticism to bump Wilson (back?) down to strong safety. The job is his to lose

IN A BATTLE

21. WDE Brennen Beyer, Sr.

Time will not thin out the WDE battle here; in fact it may make it murkier with 6'6" pass rusher Taco Charlton presumably coming off a redshirt this year. Whoever wins the job will have earned it.

22.NICKEL Terry Richardson, Jr

By 2014 the Cass Tech alum should be less tiny and prepping for a shot at a starting job in 2015; more likely he ends up in the Avery role for the duration as Michigan seeks out bigger guys on the outside.

23. G Chris Bryant, Jr*

Competition will be fierce at this point with Blake Bars and Kyle Bosch pressing; Bryant retains a size and experience edge but if Bosch is what he's supposed to be this will be a tight tight battle.

24. SDE Tom Strobel, So*

By this point his career, Strobel should pass the smaller Heitzman for the starting job, but candidates will be thick on the ground in 2014. Has a better recruiting pedigree, as well.

25. DT Chris Wormley, So*

I've heard from multiple folks that Wormley was going to play extensively this year before his ACL injury. In 2014 he will be fully healthy and huge and coached up and should fend off Matt Godin and others. May be at SDE.

26. WR Jehu Chesson, So*

The second starting wide receiver slot is anyone's guess. Chesson has the experience edge and an endorsement from the near-flawless MGoBlog Sleeper of the Year award. Fast, lanky leaper will hopefully be Braylon to Darboh's Avant.

27. SLOT Justice Hayes, Jr*

Potentially 404 FILE NOT FOUND here due to MANBALL. If they do have a smallish receiver who specializes in screens and end arounds, they'll have converted Hayes or it'll be an incoming freshman.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

PUSHING FROM BEHIND

QB Shane Morris—raring to go after hopeful redshirtRB Dennis Norfleet—make this man make playsRB Thomas Rawls—Kevin Grady 2.0WR Jaron Dukes—Junior Hemingway 2.0?WR Pick An Apostroph'd Michigan Sleeper—one of Csont'e York or Da'Mario Jones will playTE Jake Butt—strapping lad will be a matchup problemC Blake Bars—could also play G if needed C Patrick Kugler—son of Steelers OL coach should be ready to go early.G Kyle Bosch—reportedly the most ready of the 2013 class to compete right awayT Chris Fox—will have to wait on LTT so should be the third tackleDE Keith Heitzman—in the rotation for sureNT Willie Henry—late add from Glenville will be a major wild cardDT Matt Godin—run stuffer sortWDE Frank Clark—will rotate with Beyer.WDE Mario Ojemudia—will either be an impact rusher or off the radar by nowMLB Joe Bolden—probably a quasi-starter by this point.ILB Royce Jenkins-Stone—Ross backup probably.ILB Ben Gedeon—hanging aroundCB Jourdan Lewis—Cass guy but bigger than most.CB Delonte Holowell—will push at nickel. Has stopped tweeting : (S Jeremy Clark—prospect of a 6'4" free safety entices

Zoltan ponders how the gradient potential of his latest punt lines up exactly with that of collateralized debt obligation investment products in the 2008 bubble, and if they are correlated, could this end prostate cancer and teach cats to play ping-pong?

Somewhere in the Pisces-Cetus Supercluster complex, about a Yottameter from the Great Attractor, on a wet, rocky satellite of a smallish yellow star on the belt of a medium-sized Virgo Complex galaxy, there was a football game. In the first half, despite the best efforts of their opponents, Michigan's offense gained enough yards to traverse the Hoover Dam; in the second half they barely made it the length of a 747.

Millions who witnessed a representation of this occurring on stacked LCD pixels went online to find the similarly sized (and metaphorical) grain of salt, or compare the offensive coordinator's brain to the like-massed Paramecium. They tore out hair follicles, pounded their couches to release thousands of silt and skin particles which had settled there, and angrily flicked the transistor gates deep within their electronic devices to exclaim how this loss hurt to their very DNA.

In the abstract, a loss to Ohio State, even if largely expected, was too horrible to countenance. And so the Diarists burned glucose deep into the night while attempting to make sense of what was essentially the movement of a whole lot of atoms but to us a whole lot of matter. Zoom far enough in or out and you no longer have to see it.

The whole gang was back, to give the OSU faithful one more opportunity to cheer on a myth, a delusion about its history that seems painfully obvious to everyone not wearing crimson and grey.

So between the first and second quarters of the final game the 2012 Buckeyes will play, a premature finale caused by Mr. Tressel’s behavior during his years in Columbus, the fans in attendance gave him a standing ovation, one of the biggest cheers of the day. … The narrative went, at least in some circles, that most schools would have done the same, that fans love to cheer on winners and that most of those players were completely above board and played fairly, won every game that season, and, let’s be honest, Miami was no saint either. The thinking went that this was a team that the school should be proud of, or at least should be able to recognize publicly.

…who is going to keep winning Diarist of the Week until such point as BlueSeoul comes back to game wrap (with pics). I sat high up in the student section where freshmen who were probably 7 years old for 2002 cheered louder than the alumni. One kid in a black longcoat who spent most of first half with cheap nacho cheese on his chin yelled "Fuck Michigan!" at us through it all. This is Ohio State in a nutshell: cartoon bad guys oblivious to how stupid they look.

ST3 boiled Inside the Box Score down to Borges quotes. On the boards, Profwoot narrowed it to the script. And caup took it to the O-Line coach. Hypothesis: the more you know about football the deeper down the coaching ranks you can find blame. Theory: the 2003 team would have been national champs if it wasn't for (student mgr) Jeff Levine. Damn you, Levine!

As Michigan rises in the rankings, so does Burke, an adept ball handler who reads defenses well and excels in ball-screen situations, an NBA bread-and-butter play. Burke continues to be a little sloppy at times, but he is boosting his draft stock significantly in his second season. Burke's field-goal percentage (48.1) and three-point percentage (37) are up from last season.

ESPN's Chad Ford doesn't seem to have updated since the season started.

Not spotted: Tim Hardaway Jr, which is a bit of a surprise given his lights-out start to the season. Hardaway is still languishing in the second round of DX's 2014 mock behind luminaries like Josh Smith and Adriean Payne. Apparently he'll have to continue turning heads through the Big Ten season to break through in draft analysts's minds. Given his start, I think we're expecting that.

(Side note: GRIII has dropped to 25th in 2014 on DX. Meanwhile, both Pitt starting forwards feature on that 2014 mock draft with Stephen Adams 15th and Talib Zanna a second-rounder. Michigan outrebounded those guys badly. NC State meanwhile has the #7 and #8 guys in 2014 and the #20 guy this year. Michigan has already beaten some talented teams.)

Unstoppable Throw-Ball-In-Hoop-God Nik Stauskas. Stauskas is currently 4th in ORtg, a composite measure that weights various offensive stats together, 5th in effective field goal percentage, first in true shooting percentage (eFG adjusted for frequency of FT attempts and FT shooting), near the top 50 in TO rate, and is drawing free throws more frequently than anyone on the team. That is all nuts. He'll come down to earth… maybe. His usage is about where Novak was last year; so far he is an offensive upgrade on a guy who shot 85/56/41 from FT/2/3 last year.

GRIII OReb upgrade. GRIII is the second-best offensive rebounder on the team and is grabbing more than double the opportunities Novak did last year. Not that I'm picking on Novak. It enrages me when people say "John Beilein finally has a lights-out shooter" when Novak shot 41% last year. Novak was awesome. What I am saying is that between Stauskas and GRIII, Michigan has upgraded its shooting and rebounding by splitting Novak into two different people, both of whom are bigger than him.

THJ complete game watch. After six games, Hardaway is the team's second-best defensive rebounder at 19% and has drastically increased his shooting inside and outside the arc; his TO rate has hardly budged from his extremely good freshman number. Assists are actually down so far.

Big Puppy sucks up all the rebounds. If Mitch McGary had played 40% of his team's minutes instead of 36% he would rank 8th in offensive rebound percentage and 29th in defensive rebound percentage. He is of course blowing everyone out of the water in this regard so far.

Obviously there's a long way to go before we get much of an idea how legit any of these things are; I remember Michigan being an outstanding defensive rebounding team in the nonconference schedule last year, but click that conference-only box on Kenpom and 2012 Michigan drops from 99th—good—to 9th in conference—not good. This year Michigan's defensive rebounding is 4th nationally, but how will it hold up in the Big Ten? Probably better, but how much? Etc.

As for Glenn playing an undersized four, he is built like an upperclassman already so I don’t think he’s going to be getting pushed around by very many people. I think as he gains experience and gets a feel for what players can do at that level, he’ll have no problem guarding guys down low. I think a lot of players underestimate how effective just playing “solid” down low can be. Many guys in college basketball struggle to score through a strong chest. Figure out how to hold your ground and you have won half of the battle. When he stays between his man and the basket, he can be more effective than I was because of his great length. There were times I could guard a guy perfectly, but he’d just shoot it right over me. That shouldn’t happen to him as much.

He doesn't bite on the "potential undoing" question; I will: foul trouble for Robinson would force Michigan into the rickety two-post offense for extended periods and could bring things down. There isn't really a guy who can spell him and shoot unless it's Bielfeldt.

Fresh Prince of Bel Air went off the air in 1996, and Martin in 1997, which means these kids were like two or three. [HT: Daily Gopher]

More alumni points. Michigan's changed the priority points system to further prioritize alumni and former letterwinners, but the thing I found fascinating was the chart MLaw06 attached to his diary:

Current

1 Alum

(+15)

2 Alums

(+30)

1 Athlete

(+45)

2 Athletes

(+90)

25%

3.82

18.82

33.82

48.82

93.82

50%

21.2

36.2

51.2

66.2

111.2

90%

174.67

189.67

204.67

219.67

264.67

95%

326.65

341.65

356.65

371.65

416.65

99%

1365.81

1380.81

1395.81

1410.81

1455.81

Climbing halfway up the points list costs about 2000 bucks; getting to 90 costs as much as a new car. (A new car!) The change deflates point values slightly but on a 1-1 ratio that's like giving alums an extra $1,500 head start on other folk. Opinions on this will be split down the middle between alums and non-alums.

The strength of that correlation may change if Michigan gets aggressive about throwing under Borges. Right now, pretty stark, especially those two years under 40 rushing yards.

Protip: don't do this. Former ND hockey player Riley Sheahan arrested wearing a teletubby costume (Tinky Winky, if you're interested). Arrest is for being drunk and driving; drunkenly stated he had not finished high school when asked if there was anything that might prevent him from properly answering the questions. Was carrying a teammate's license on him. None of this is good. Except the costume.

“I like to be offensive,” he said. “But I take pride in my defense. I’d say my stability, my size and reach are my strengths. I like to be as active as possible, but I want to work on my positioning.”

De Jong would also admit he’s not the most physical out there, but has a pretty good role model right now in locked-out Colorado Avalanche rearguard Ryan O’Byrne, who is a volunteer coach for his hometown Victoria squad while the NHL is on ice. De Jong also worked out with O’Byrne and Jeff Compton, whose clients include several NHL and Western League franchises, in the off-season.

Etc.: Four Michigan guys make the BTN All-Freshman team. I look forward to a day when that number is zero, or one or something. Next year probably won't be that year since redshirts are included and Michigan figures to start at least two freshman OL.

Big Ten title game not a hot seller. With how spread out the conference is going to be it might be wise to just make it a home game for the team with the better conference record, with record of your conference opponents breaking ties.

Michigan sits at the end of the regular season with a lot better idea of what they'll do without Denard Robinson than they did before he got injured at Nebraska. This is what they call a silver lining. Yeah, the Cornspiracy is playing a 7-5 team they already beat to go to the Rose Bowl, but what are they doing at quarterback next year?

[offstage whisper]

It seems they are still playing Taylor Martinez. Screw them!

Anyway, Michigan's offense before and after the Gardner injury was vastly different, so let's take a look at some rough outlines.

Schedule Check

Gardner played games against Minnesota, Northwestern, Iowa, and Ohio State. These were the 5th, 7th, 8th, and 9th defenses in the Big Ten in terms of yardage. In terms of pass efficiency D they were 3rd, 6th, 9th, and 10th. (Oddly, Minnesota is the top team in both those categories.) This is a slightly worse sample than a random one, but if we're projecting overall stats to next year that's fair-ish since Michigan will play three non-BCS teams in their four nonconference games. It's ballpark, but the ballpark should be in the ballpark.

Obviously this is all very rough. We're projecting season to date, so aiming for 12 games.

Hypothetical Individual Stats

Hypothetical Gardner:

171 completions on 270 attempts, 63% completions, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 3015 yards, 11.1 YPA(!). This would place him first in the Big Ten in passer efficiency by a mile and would in fact be #1 nationally. That's not happening, but if he can be in the top 20 that would be awesome.

Also he would have 105 rushes for 231 yards, which is depressed by sack yardage and Michigan avoiding called runs with him since the alternative seemed to be Jack Kennedy.

Hypothetical Receivers:

Gallon: 66 catches for 1098 yards(!)

Roundtree: 45 catches for 1134 yards(!)

Drew Dileo: remains criminally underused

Devin Funchess: 9 catches for 132 yards. Hmm, bad.

That seems swell. Except…

Hypothetical Tailbacks:

Fitzgerald Toussaint: 34 carries for 191 yards, 5.6 YPC

Thomas Rawls: 32 carries for 68 yards, 2.1 YPC.

Vincent Smith: 8 carries for 21 yards, 2.6 YPC

TOTAL: 3.8 YPC.

Denard is of course the wildcard, as he averaged 8.2 yards a carry in conference and 7.6(!) overall, which is the best YPC season at Michigan since at least 1949 (minimum 100 carries). I mean:

Runner

Att

Yards

YPC

Denard

154

1166

7.6

Et Al

303

1082

3.6

I left sacks on both QBs in, FWIW. Not that it matters. Denard averaged 9.3 YPC on 23 carries against Iowa and OSU but we don't really need to extrapolate with him, we have all the data. He was four yards per carry better than any other option available. Stupid elbow.

Hypothetical Team Stats

These are difficult to parse out because of the Denard complication. But, yeah, #1 in passer efficiency. In yards, an even 400, which would be 64th. Rush offense slides to 148 a game, which puts them below Michigan state, well into the 70s. Pass offense goes from 95th to 49th.

Michigan going so slow all the time hurts them in these raw stats, of course. The efficiency is extremely promising as long as they can run block at all. Which, maybe?

Today's recruiting roundup covers Gareon Conley's decommitment, the candidates to fill the final few spots in the '13 class, and more.

Conley Decommits: Is He Still An Option?

In a move months in the making, Gareon Conley has decommitted from Michigan($, info in header) after visiting Ohio State last weekend, in accordance with the no-visit policy of Brady Hoke. While not a crippling blow to Michigan's recruiting class—three cornerbacks remain in the fold in Ross Douglas, Jourdan Lewis, and Channing Stribling—the loss of Conley removes one of the more dynamic athletes among the commits.

While similar situations with Pharaoh Brown and David Dawson resulted in Michigan no longer pursuing either prospect, TomVH reports (above link) that the Wolverines will continue to recruit Conley—likely because Conley was up-front about his intentions to visit other schools and stayed in communication with the coaches, unlike Brown or Dawson. It's likely that the battle for Conley's services comes down to Michigan and Ohio State; while Conley has serious interest in Oregon, the Ducks have yet to offer and it doesn't appear that one is coming.

I think Michigan still has a pretty good shot here. In the immediate aftermath of the Ohio State visit, Conley said he was still 100% committed to Michigan, and multiple reports stated that he left the game early and hardly interacted with other Buckeye recruits. While Ohio State will get a serious look, expect Michigan to be in it until the very end for Conley, especially since he could get a shot at receiver for the Wolverines as well.

[Hit THE JUMP for the latest on two new O-line targets, a rundown of the available 2013 options, and more.]

Reading your 11/26 post about "The Game", I noticed you made mention of the question of whether huddling is necessary anymore. As a high school coach and former small college player who has used both the huddle and the no-huddle, my first reaction is to disagree with your point that the huddle is archaic and a bit of a dinosaur. But I am also intrigued.

My overall response would be that there are obvious advantages to both. Points and tempo are the obvious gains, but tempo is also a negative from the no huddle (as we learned circa 2009-2011) when an offense has too many three and outs and a team's defense bears the brunt of it all. In short, it's hard to praise a defense, especially an overachieving bunch like our boys, while touting an offensive style that so often seems to lead to a loss in defensive production.

In short, what data is out there to suggest that the no huddle would not obliterate our defensive gains?

-chewieblue

There are two issues here being conflated here. Not huddling is not necessarily synonymous with going at a high speed. Ohio State runs the same no-huddle style as Oregon but does not push the pedal down nearly as much:

Team

Offensive Plays

Defensive Plays

Total

% Plays on offense

Oregon

989

915

1904

52%

Michigan

738

791

1529

48%

Ohio State

837

849

1686

49%

Oregon games had 24% more plays in them than Michigan games; Ohio State games had just 10% more, and I'm guessing the difference there is more Michigan being exceptionally slow than Ohio State being fast: decidedly MANBALL Wisconsin games featured a little over 1600 plays this year. If OSU is over the national average for plays run it's not by much.

The benefits of getting to the line immediately are the same whether you're going fast or slow: the defense is hampered in its ability to substitute and you can see how they align as you make your playcall. You can sprinkle in tempo plays when you have an advantage without cracking the whip up and down the field.

The other issue is how a high tempo affects your defense. This is the reason people invented tempo-free basketball statistics: how fast you go can distort how your offense and defense look. A high-tempo approach artificially inflates the former and deflates the latter.

Take the most extreme possible example: Oregon. The Ducks are are decent but essentially mediocre in yardage statistics. They're 47th in rushing, 60th in passing, and 46th in total D. But they faced 915 plays. Michigan's defense faced 791, and in there is a large part of the gap between the two defenses. Michigan is still better on a yards-per-play basis, but there's no question that Oregon played more good offenses.

Advanced stats that try to account for tempo look a lot more favorably on Oregon's defense than conventional ones. The Ducks are eighth in FEI*, one spot in front of Alabama. They're 21st in S&P, which I don't like as much because it's play-focused instead of drive-focused.

As this year's Michigan team proved against Nebraska and OSU, a three and out is a three and out and you're in trouble no matter what if that's what your offense is doing. In games you can win, the price you're extracting from your defense is going to be similar to the price you extract from the opposition.

And, like, I don't think it would have mattered if a Greg Robinson defense played opposite the Lombardi Packers. They were cooked.

*[A note on FEI: that ranking looked pretty strange on offense last year; this year it passes any sanity test you want to give it with Florida/ND/Stanford/MSU as the top 4. It seems to be overrating some small schools but that's inevitable.]

Are we running the Air Raid next year? Taking out Denard, Michigan had a pretty atrocious rushing offense this year. It's obviously going to look different next season without a primarily rushing QB but even still, with a starting RB coming off a serious leg injury, and replacing 3 or 4 offensive lineman, this looks bleak right?

Brian

Look on the bright side: at least Borges has shown to be more willing to adapt to a throw-first mentality than Carr-era coordinators. And the interior line literally cannot be worse! Woo!

It does look bleak. Michigan has to hope that Mike Schofield can hold up at left tackle (I think he can against non-elite pass-rushers and will probably be a Stenavich-level player) and then fill in the rest of the line with n00bs. There are some assets:

Extremely fast QB.

"College-ready" five star Kyle Kalis at guard.

Guy who has played center all the way, Jack Miller, at center, presumably making much better line calls.

Enormous guy Chris Bryant

Enormous guy Ben Braden

It… yeah, it looks grim-ish. While any of the above could work out Michigan is still working through the disastrous RR OL recruiting and will have a similar problem to the one they had this year: few, if any options to turn to if the starters are not performing. Things are little better at tackle, where Erik Magnuson is available to back up instead of nobody, but on the interior you've got a redshirt freshman on the 3/4 star borderline (Bars) and Joey Burzynski, who is still 6'1".

But there's a bunch of hype for the freshman class and Bryant was reported looking good before the leg injury. Michigan may have to go with more Gardner running than they might want. I certainly hope they don't ditch the veer, for one.

Hi Brian,

First of all, I'm very surprised by Hoke's prediction that Devin's redshirt will go through, given his history of never saying anything specific, ever.

With that in mind, do you think Devin is a good fit for Borges' style of West Coast offense? Or will we still be "making due" with some Frankenoffense for the next two years, give or take, until Shane is ready?

Like most fans, I've been pleasantly surprised by Devin over the past month, but I don't know enough about Borges' dream offense to know how well his QB skills translate.

Jerry

I was surprised, too, and assume he was told by the people who had talked to the Big Ten that they would get it. Which hurray, one less argument about how dumb Rich Rodriguez is and extra year for starting QB.

Gardner is clearly a better fit for what Borges wants to do than Denard was. He's tall, he can stand in the pocket, and he has an excellent deep ball when he's not being asked to throw it on the run for some strange reason. He also tends to run when he should run, thus rescuing various plays that aren't going so well.

I am actually hoping for something of a Frankenoffense, though. Running big epic "play action" from an I-form that is really just a max-protect setup doesn't use Gardner's legs particularly effectively, and we've seen that when you get a guy who can run and throw trying to stop both is super hard. Hell, run-and-kinda-throw is pretty hard. I'd like Michigan to still run most of its offense from the shotgun and use Gardner's legs to mitigate some of the problems that will arise on the offensive line. With Morris backing Gardner up you won't have to be as overcautious as it seemed Michigan was this year.

Maybe the OL will surprise and DeVeon Smith or Derrick Green will show up as a grinder and it will work. If a traditional manball running game isn't in the cards, though, the Frankenoffense may be the best one available.

Brian:

Do you think Hopkins gets a long look in the spring back at tailback with Fitz's status up in the air?

Seems like they have some depth now at fullback with Kerridge and Houma. I know he has ball security issues so maybe he has to walk around campus all spring, summer and fall carrying a football. Could he have the potential to be a Leroy Hoard-type in 1988, '89 as a featured, ball-carrying back?

Chris

While that's a possibility I doubt it will amount to much if they do try it. Hopkins may be marginally better than Rawls if he doesn't fumble, he has. Rawls hasn't done much but he also has not fumbled.

A Hoard-back requires Hoard-blocking, and more speed than Hopkins brings to the table. If Derrick Green ends up committing he's the early favorite to get a plurality of carries.

Any chance that Michigan starts Pipkins and Washington in a similar way that they used Washington and Campbell this year?

Daniel

Probably not. Nose tackle is a draining position staffed by enormous men and requires that two people play it. Michigan probably wanted to use Pipkins more than they did a year ago; they couldn't because he wasn't very good. Michigan will probably stick with him as the backup nose in preparation for a two year starting run. Big guys take some time.

I showed up on Michigan's campus in 1997 and did not go to basketball or hockey games for whatever reason. That year, hockey won a national title and basketball got bounced in the second round as a three-seed. I went with hockey, and that quickly proved to be a wise choice. Brian Ellerbe was resident at Crisler. Mike Comrie was at Yost.

A few years later I got a phone call the morning of the Michigan State game from my uncle, offering me a ticket. I muttered some excuse and went and did something else, what I don't remember. Michigan got annihilated like they always do. I felt like a bad fan, but short of being strapped to an immaculately-trained fetchin' donkey I was not going anywhere near Crisler that day. Michigan did not have the facilities to immaculately train fetchin' donkeys. Or basketball players.

At some point during the Amaker era I swung by a few games; I parked in the blue lot next to the stadium. Empty spaces abounded around me, and no one charged me. We wandered down from our upper-deck seats to the lower bowl without issue.

The first time I went to a lot of games at Crisler was six years ago, in Beilein's first year. I got a partial season ticket to watch Michigan lose to Boston College after they had already lost to Western Kentucky; the next game they lost to Harvard. By 11. Harvard had just hired Tommy Amaker. The Canadian on that team shot 19% from 3 and 48% from the line.

During this period of time, the basketball team had to practice at the IM building when schedules overlapped with the women.

Several lost Chilean miners were found on the Crisler concourse after weeks of searching.

A small boy who had wandered up to the top row to see what it was like in 1999 was found ten years later the next section over, having developed a taste for foam padding and a hatred of whatever it was that Amaker called offense. When asked by the pith-helmeted explorers if he would like to return to civilization, he asked if it involved 20 turnovers a game, was told it did not, and left.

-------------------------------------

Yesterday seemed like the same old Michigan basketball before the game. When they raised Michigan's first championship banner since 1986, the stands were barely half-full and the three completely empty sections in the endzone grated.

But when I looked up after Michigan had forced a timeout out of a top-20 team, everyone had come in from the cold. It was loud, and Mitch McGary was waving his arms like a maniac to make it louder, and I thought to myself that guy has no idea.

He does not remember about the feral child and how Amaker offered him a scholarship that one year. He doesn't know you could park on the concourse if you wanted or that the answer to the question "would you rather have Michigan State tickets or an STD?" was "is the STD treatable with antibiotics?"

If he knows anything it's that people from Chesterton end up at Michigan because they are needed to have Aneurysms of Leadership at critical moments, and that Crisler ArenaCenter is under construction. Was under construction. It's all shiny now, just in time for Michigan to return to alpha-dog status.

None of these guys know anything. Nik Stauskas has spent most of the last 16 years shooting in his backyard and probably needs to be informed about recent developments like the fall of communism. Glenn Robinson just showed up, too, and even the veteran-ish stars came in for tourney appearances and an already-underway player development center. They have no idea that Michigan basketball is a self-flagellating moribund dungeon of a program still kicking itself for transgressions over a decade past that people just will not shut up about, ever.

Let's not tell them.

Highlights

Bullets

I AM ON TO YOU NIK* STAUSKAS

Congratulations on 3.5 million youtube views.

*[I'd been calling him Nick because at some point I thought I read something that said he prefers it, but Michigan and Kenpom both go with Nik so I will as well.

Seriously though. 20 points on ten shots. 4/7 from three, which lowers his season average to 58%. And this:

NC State seems like a pretty awful defensive team but Pitt and Kansas State are not and he put up lethally efficient games against them as well. Probably the most remarkable stat in Stauskas's young career: he's leading the team in both free-throw rate and turnover rate (at a bogglingly low 7.7). Oh, and he's 20 of 21 from the line.

aint even phased that's less weird than someone shooting 58% from three

Shocking stat, of the somewhat not great variety. Hardaway was one of nine from three in the last outing, which shocked me when I looked it up because I didn't remember him taking anywhere near that many attempts from deep. None of them were bad shots, I guess—I have an elephant memory for those.

He's still at 37% on the year despite that and is shooting nearly 70% from two after going 6 of 9 inside the arc against NC State.

Robinson rebounding update. We mentioned this on the podcast: GRIII had an impressive two games in MSG, picking up 12 rebounds against Kansas State and battling Pitt's 6'9" Talib Zanna—a monster, monster rebounder who is 17% offensive/20% defensive—rebound for rebound. He's currently got an 11%/16% line, which puts him not too far off Branden Dawson's 13%/12% last year. He's converting twos at about the same clip Dawson did last year, and he's 5/13 from 3—Dawson was 0/3 for the entirety of last year.

Schedule strength caveats apply.

Depth? Hmmm: is there any? Michigan is again languishing in the 300s in bench minutes. Burke's minutes have dropped from 89% all the way to 85%, Hardaway's from 84% to 82%, and GRIII is clocking 80% as well. Michigan can throw out three posts, and does technically bring Stauskas off the bench, but yeah at everywhere other than the 5 Michigan's isn't getting much.

That depth at the five is very nice, though: against Kansas State both Morgan and McGary got in foul trouble and Michigan was just like "meh." Against NC State, Morgan played poorly and Michigan just went with McGary mostly.

McGary. Mitch McGary is a 6'10" puppy, one of those with the crazy googly eyes that runs around barking at everything because everything has always been so exciting it will kill him. This is obvious in the numbers: huge rebound rates! 19% offensive! 27% defensive! The worst turnover rate on the team! Averaging 7 fouls per 40! I wish they kept a stat for most times waving your hands up and down exhorting the crowd to be louder! Sometimes he nearly kicks the governor in the face!

That's great. His rebound rates are so high they're unsustainable; they are still extremely encouraging. With the three perimeter scorers Michigan doesn't really need a post who demands the ball, they need a guy who can generate possession advantage and play good defense. If McGary isn't the top-3 national player he was hyped up to be, he's still a huge asset for the team.

The skill is just a bonus. He had a pretty finger roll against Kansas State and took two dribbles to a layup in this one; he has also recovered from a poor start at the free throw line to hit five of his last six (which are the only ones Kenpom records since the rest were exhibitions or the Slippery Rock game).

Not a very close comparison since Burke shoots threes effectively. I'll take Darius Morris plus shooting.

Rotations. A small complaint: I don't like it when the two-post offense is out there with Burke or Hardaway on the bench. Not enough shot creation out there.

Defense. It looks like NC State can score in bunches. Despite that, there is reason for concern whenever your opponent hits 57% from the floor. NC State got a third of the rare misses, and it seemed like there were way too many easy opportunities at the rim. I'm not sure what the issue is here. Michigan goes without shotblockers for the most part and is not forcing turnovers, so there's that, but that was pretty much the case last year as well.

They are exceptionally young. Two of the three starters are freshman and the guy off the bench who plays the most is also a freshman. Hopefully they can work out some kinks before Big Ten play starts; they're through the tough stretch of the nonconference schedule.

Elsewhere

This wasn't the best performance of a young season from his precocious, young team. But it was another impressive one from the Wolverines, now 6-0 and ranked No. 3 in the country — the program's highest perch since late in the 1993-94 season.

And that it came on the night they raised a Big Ten championship banner to the rafters, for the first time in more than a quarter-century, well, that meant something, too.

But leave it to the ones with the short attention spans to put things into proper perspective.

"Those guys put a lot of hard work into that banner," said freshman guard Nik Stauskas, who, lest you forget he's a kid, actually admitted to being a Justin Bieber fan after the game. "But it's on to the next one. We want another one."

Michigan’s defense wasn’t nearly as effective as it has been in early season play. As I wrote in the preview, NC State has more than its fair share of individual one-on-one talent and Michigan had no answer on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolfpack matched Michigan’s heroic shooting effort, connecting on 60% of their two point attempts and racking up a 59% effective field goal percentage. Michigan’s front court defense couldn’t slow CJ Leslie, TJ Warren and Richard Howell as they combined to make 22 of 34 shots inside the arc and would have done even more damage if not limited by foul trouble. Michigan’s defensive rebounding also hit a snag, allowing NC State to rebound a third of its missed shots including seven second half offensive boards. 54 of NC State’s 72 points came in the paint and 14 of those were off of offensive rebounds.

New header, same game. I had to look up who this school is, and discovered a lot of legal proceedings over calling themselves the Braves. And no it's not referring to the people at the end of the song where they bomb Fort McHenry all night and in the morning the flag is all like "Still standing, Brits! WASSUP!"

How this works again:

Wednesdays I put up a winnable prize that consists of a desirable good.

You guess the final scores of this weekend's designated game (football or hoops, depending on the season), and put it in the comments. First person to post a particular score has it.

Nobody won but they picked up Tressel and carried him around the stadium anyway. Just like the 2010 Big Ten Championship!

This Week's Game:

Michigan @ Bradley. After the Pitt-K State-NC State gauntlet, your defending Big Ten Basketball Champions (banner!) get a breather in Peoria. Guess the final score; closest to the pin rules in effect with this one.

These were generously donated by SeatCrunch. See the
button under the MGoBoard? They're the guys who are doing that for us. We chose them for the ticket center because they don't add fees; other than shipping of the physical tickets the price it says is the price. I used them to buy my tix for the MSU game this year, and while they probably don't want everybody requesting Saturday tickets on Friday mornings, at least we know they can handle that.

Fine print: One entry per user. First user to choose a set of scores wins, determined by the timestamp of your entry (for my ease I prefer if you don't post it as a reply to another person's score--if you do it won't help or hurt you). Deadline for entries is 24 hours before the start of the game. MGoEmployees and Moderators exempt from winning. We did not invent the algorithm. The algorithm consistently finds Jesus. The algorithm killed Jeeves. The algorithm is banned in China. The algorithm is from Jersey. Rutgers is from Jersey. Holy shit guys Rutgers is in the Big Ten. BIG TENNNNN! The algorithm constantly finds Jesus.This is not the algorithm. This is close.