"Unfortunately so much commentary is self-serving or sensationalist. Pete Wargent shines through with his clear, sober & dispassionate analysis of the housing market, which is so valuable. Pete drills into the facts & unlocks the details that others gloss over in their rush to get a headline. On housing Pete is a must read, must follow - he is one of the finest property analysts in Australia" - Stephen Koukoulas, MD of Market Economics, former Senior Economics Adviser to Prime Minister Gillard.

"Pete is one of Australia's brightest financial minds - a must-follow for articulate, accurate & in-depth analysis." - David Scutt, Business Insider, leading Australian market analyst.

"I've been investing for over 40 years & read nearly every investment book ever written yet I still learned new concepts in his books. Pete Wargent is one of Australia's finest young financial commentators." - Michael Yardney, Australia's leading property expert, Amazon #1 best-selling author.

"The most knowledgeable person on Aussie real estate markets - Pete's work is great, loads of good data and charts, the most comprehensive analyst I follow in Australia. If you follow Australia, follow Pete Wargent" - Jonathan Tepper, Variant Perception, Global Macroeconomic Research, and author of the New York Times bestsellers 'End Game' and 'Code Red'.

"The level of detail in Pete's work is superlative across all of Australia's housing markets" - Grant Williams, co-founder RealVision - where world class experts share their thoughts on economics & finance - & author of Things That Make You Go Hmmm...one of the world's most popular & widely-read financial publications.

"Wargent is a bald-faced realty foghorn" - David Llewellyn-Smith, MacroBusiness.

Thursday, 15 September 2016

Unemployment rate at 37-month low

Full-time jobs

The ABS Labour Force figures reversed some of the previously lost full-time employment, with full-time jobs up by +11,500 in August, offset by a decrease of -15,400 in part-time positions.

Over the year to August the trend series for total employment has increased by +191,200 or +1.6 per cent, remaining well ahead of the rate of population growth.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell again to 5.6 per cent in August, with the trend unemployment rate ticking down to its lowest level since July 2013.

A look at the month by month seasonally adjusted figures for the unemployment rate shows that the headline rate has declined from 6.31 per cent in January 2015 to 5.63 per cent in August.

At the state level trend unemployment rates are in a promising downtrend in New South Wales (5.1 per cent) and Victoria (5.7 per cent), but trending upwards in Western Australia (6.2 per cent).

Jobs are in MEL-SYD

The resources states are seeing their total employment figures pull back as major projects continue to transition from construction to production.

Victoria has taken over the mantle as the king of employment growth over the year to August (+125k), with New South Wales (+66k) the only other state to record a strong annual result.

Indeed the two most populous states have accounted for more than 100 per cent of the total jobs growth over the past year.

While Sydney and Melbourne lead the way, Western Australia and Tasmania have slipped into negative territory, and employment growth is also flat in South Australia.

The wrap

Overall, it's good to see that the unemployment rate continues to fall, but underemployment is still rife, and the average number of hours worked has been fairly stagnant.

Melbourne is the employment epicentre right now, with Sydney knocked into second place. Better beaches though.