We're stuck in the midst of a broadband evolution wrought with imperfections that taint the high-speed experience for many users. The good news is that today's trials and tribulations will eventually get us to a true "always-on" future where ultrafast Internet connections will be as accessible and common as today's telephone service.

The future may show a very different picture, however, when it comes to how and where we get broadband access. Cable and DSL, for example, may fall by the wayside as fiber-optic networks proliferatesomething many industry watchers believe will happen within the next ten years.

Getting From Here To There

In the interim, service providers are banking on the virtual truck roll conceptin which subscribers take on the responsibility of installationto speed up the process and bring down costs associated with real-world truck rolls.

In the case of self-installation, a subscriber purchases the cable or DSL hardware and software, installs the modem, enters name and billing information via a series of software prompts, and fires up the service. In theory, the benefits are clear: Individuals can install the package at any time, and service providers can save big money.

Several companies and service providers offer self-start solutions, but there are still obstacles to overcome. Potential subscribers still need the cable and DSL operators to determine whether the service is available in their area, and self-installs can be technically daunting for many.

Conquering self-installation has proven even tougher in the DSL world than the cable world, as evidenced by the various financial and public-relations black eyes the segment suffered last year. High-flying third-party DSL providers like Covad Communications and NorthPoint Communications were skewered by a complaining public and an impatient Wall Street.

"Virtual truck rolls are just harder to do with DSL, because the networks are so complex, but software from companies like NightFire and Broadjump is getting much smarter, so we'll eventually be able to overcome this," says Pat Hurley, a DSL analyst with research firm Telechoice.

DSL provider SBC, and its subsidiary Pacific Bell, is addressing the problem via a promotion with Compaq, which offers computers already equipped with DSL modems.

Cable operators are faring much better. According to Cablevision, 90 percent of its new subscribers opt for the self-install version of its Optimum Internet service, available through both its Web site and The Wiz electronics stores.

Late last year, New York City's Time Warner Cable launched a direct sales initiative, and Excite@Home announced in November a deal with RadioShack Corp., which will sell Excite@Home QuickStart Kits for $30. The kits are also available at select Circuit City and CompUSA stores.

QuickStart installation still requires subscribers to call their cable operators to get the service turned on. Excite@Home plans to have truly automated self-installations by year's end.

Look To The Skies

While satellite may still be a fringe broadband solutionJupiter Communications estimates that less than 2 percent of broadband subscribers will access the Internet via satellite by the end of 2003the true two-way services arriving in the next year could jump-start its popularity.

StarBand started the push last fall with the launch of its two-way satellite service. Hughes Network Systems, owners of the DirecPC satellite system, will offer its oft-delayed two-way service SpaceWay in early 2001, and start-up Wild Blue should launch its service by the end of 2002.

The Coming Revolution

As broadband connectivity becomes ubiquitous, providers will be forced to differentiate themselves with extra services. Cable providers, for example, have paired with companies like Into Networks and MediaStation, both of which offer flexible subscription services for software and games. On the DSL front, piggybacked voice and fax services may finally become a reality by early 2002.

"Right now, more than 50 percent of online households aren't willing to pay for broadband, so providers need to find a way to deliver more value to consumers," says Jupiter Communications senior analyst Joe Laszlo.

Apartment buildings and hotels are the latest target market for service providers. CAIS Internet and STSN, for example, now provide broadband to the "hospitality space," and they have signed Hilton Hotels and Marriott, respectively.

Broadband in public spaces, including airports and convention centers, is burgeoning as well. According to Cahners In-Stat Group, this segment will grow from a $18.5 million market this year to nearly $1.2 billion in 2004.

MobileStar, for example, has taken a huge chunk of the hotel, convention center, and train markets with its wireless broadband services. So far, it has coverage in more than 25 airports, and it will unveil its service in train stations in 2002.

GlobalStar, Qualcomm, and a start-up called Passenger Networks are making early inroads in bringing broadband to airplanes.

Light Speed Ahead

Twenty years from now, today's high-bandwidth solutions and scenarios will likely be irrelevant, thanks to pure fiber. Pure fiber-optic networks promise to deliver bandwidth that is far greater than cable, DSL, or satellite can offer.

Fiber networks today offer speeds of up to 10 Gbpsand some say 50 Gbps is right around the corner. But will fiber make it to the home? GartnerGroup analysts predict that fiber connections will make it to less than 1 percent of U.S. homes by 2005, but by 2012 it will be coming on strong.

Larry Rabiner, vice president of research at AT&T Labs, is more optimistic. He thinks that fiber connections will reach homes in the next two to five years, and that in ten years fiber-based networks will be where cable and DSL are today.

In fact, WINfirst, a Denver-based broadband service provider, signed a five-year deal in October with Lucent Technologies and Avaya to build fiber-to-the-home networks in the U.S. The optical-access network will connect homes using a dedicated fiber cable and laser equipment, providing 100 Mbps. WINfirst has regulatory approval to build networks in California, Oregon, and Texas. Applications are still pending for Las Vegas and Seattle.

Similarly, Nortel announced that it would supply Aerie Networks optical Internet products and services for its broadband network over the next four years. Aerie plans to use Nortel's products to extend its service to 194 U.S. cities.

For the interim, Austin, Texas-based Advent Networks has developed a technology called UltraBand, which offers connection speeds up to 40 Mbps over hybrid fiber and coaxial cable networks, supplying switched Ethernet servicemeaning guaranteed bandwidth for subscribers, regardless of how many users are online. It should be available through some service providers as early as 2001 at current cable modem prices; field tests are scheduled for the Kansas City area in April.

The service could be a dream for anyone who downloads large multimedia files, including MP3 files, which can be retrieved in less than a second at such speeds, according to the company. Its UltraBand platform delivers full-screen, DVD-quality streaming media, unlike cable and DSL, which allow only small windows of streaming media.

"Eventually we'll have fiber network interfaces to our homes so that we can have video, audio, and computer end points that are all connected to the same network," says Rabiner. "Today's broadband is merely whetting people's appetite for what they could havevirtual reality, high-quality video, you name itover a fiber pipe."

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