Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Tuesday 12/19 A.M. Quickie:Are the Colts Really Back?

Did you really think the Colts were finished for the season, putting the "AFterthought" in AFC? Last night's win over the Bengals should put them back near the top of most everyone's league rankings.

(And how many fantasy playoff games were won by the owner who came from behind with Peyton Manning's 4 TD passes? Or the owner who came from behind with Marvin Harrison's 3 TD catches?)

NBA: For Knicks and Nuggets, things are "fine." If suspending top players is wrong, who wants to be right? Short-handed, the Knicks beat the Jazz at the buzzer (to tie the Celtics, Raptors and Nets for the most wins, 10, in the Shitlantic Division). Meanwhile, the Nuggets -- without Carmelo Anthony or JR Smith – beat the previously sizzling Wizards in Denver.

College Hoops Parity Watch: Unbeaten OklahomaState loses for first time this season to Tennessee. Meanwhile, my preseason Final Four pick of Wisconsin is suddenly hardly bold, given the Badgers' rise to No. 4 in the latest Top 25.

MLB Hot Stove: Credit the Tigers for locking up young starter Jeremy Bonderman (4Y, $38M). No need to troll the free agency depths looking for quality starters when they can re-sign the sick young bunch they already have.

Meanwhile, Pete Rose is going to get the star treatment from the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame. At least it's A Hall of Fame, if not THE Hall of Fame. What does it say that it took the Reds HOF this long to honor him? (It says they obviously need an attendance spike.)

Sports Business: ESPN's new ownership stake in Arena Football League is the best thing to ever happen to the sport – and it's a smart play for ESPN.

The deal gives the network a way to expand its "Monday night" football (small "n") presence without "Monday Night Football" (big "N") by creating weekly Arena games on Monday between March 12 and June 25, satisfying the football fans' jones for the sport.

Arena was so excited by the distribution opportunity that it delayed the start of its season. Plus, the league can take advantage of all of the distribution channels of ESPN. Meanwhile, the deal helps ESPN find more programming it can own, as the major sports leagues take (back) more and more ownership of their products.

Fans and critics who don't understand Arena mock it a little bit for the funky look and pinball scoring, but it's one of the great sports-league success stories of the last 25 years. (Compare the AFL's growth to, say, the NHL.)

But for a league that is revolutionary as much for its fan-friendly marketing as its rulebook, it's the most significant step yet to come that much closer to its existing fans, and – most importantly – create new ones.

(And, yet, somehow I don't think that Tony Kornheiser will be in the booth calling the games...)

Oh, and DON'T FORGET TO SIGN UP for this blog's Bowl Pick 'Em contest. We're using the ESPN.com Bowl Pick 'Em interface. Groupname: Daily Quickie Readers. No password needed. You can enter whenever, but to get credit for tonight's bowl-season opener, be sure to get in now. Poinsettia Mania!

The Reds just got the approval from MLB to allow Rose into the Reds HOF. Before, Pete Rose was banned from ALL capacities of baseball.

Also...the Bengals piss me off. Just when I thought the offensive line was becoming a good unit, they lose ANOTHER starter. And what was up with them calling a timeout on their first drive to allow Indy to challenge the play?

Dan finds rooting for his own alma mater(Northwestern) so monumentally unsatisfying that he had to become a fan/apologist of his wife's favorite school (Florida). Now that is the very definition of pathetic. I guess banging away on Farve every day somehow makes him feel better. Oh well, I'm sure Farve will somehow feel better when he goes to Canton and sees his Hall of Fame bust.

On the radio this morning, one of the co-hosts said something to the effect of "Being behind by 20 points late in the game isn't an excuse (to beat someone up) unless there are serious extenuating circumstances that hinder a team's ability to compete..."

Personally, I consider Isiah Thomas and his renowned GM / Head Coach abilities an extenuating circumstance that will hinder his team's chances to win games.

Come on, cmfost; you know if Dan was in a sports bar and brett favre walked in, Dan would swoon. He would move over to a stool near (but not next to) No.4's, and try to make eye contact, with a lump in his throat, and when Brett looked his way he would smile, look away, and then look back to see if brett was still looking at him... He loves brett favre, but he bashes him because brett never pays him any attention.

Good job by the colts. I just spent a half-hour looking at the schedules of the jets, jags, broncs, bungles, bills, texans, and chiefs. It's soo not likely, but, hey, I'm a big-time dolphins and pats fan this week . Bungles-broncs doesn't really matter; whichever team loses has to lose both games; guess I have to root for the broncs, since the steelers will have some control over whether the bungles lose their next one. And texans-bills, I think the steelers win the tiebreaker over the texans, so I root for them, although I don't think they'll continue to catch all the breaks, espcially dealing with the hawk. As for KC, they are the one team in it that the steelers definitely have the tiebreak on; have to hope they win so they'll have incentive the following week against the jags.

Yea, I'm sure many people came back in their fantasy playoff games with Manning/Harrison. But how many teams LOST because the Bengals scored one lousy TD against the Colts crappy D. I had Palmer/Rudi Johnson, down only 12 points in a league...and they did next to nothing. I hate the Bengals!

The AFL contract with ESPN will do great things for the league - as a season ticket holder (yes there are some), I'm glad they've bounced back from the failed NBC contract. I'm excited to see what ESPN will do with it. I think the AFL will definitely catch on for a couple of reasons 1) the season takes place during a lull - NFL is over, MLB is just starting, and NBA doesn't really hit its peak until the playoffs.2) the tickets are super cheap and really affordable so if you like what you see, it's not nearly as hard to go see it live as it is for the NFL. Plus, it's for the family, so you can safely bring your kids.It's really exciting, so I hope you consider covering it, somewhat, in the coming months.

Regarding Shanoff rooting for his teams (NU, FL), I don't think I have ever seem him claim to be unbiased. If I had a sports blog as popular as his, I'd be biased too.

Regarding Bonderman- what a good move by the Tigers. They got a young, good arm to extend for a rather cheap deal considering the other guys (Lilly, Meche) receiving ridiculous contracts. Kudos to Detroit on that one. The AL Central may be the best division next year.

Last Thursday I predicted the Colts would win 36-17 if I recall correctly. Pretty pleased with my fortune telling this morning.

I think Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson have such a man-crush on Peyton and Marvin that they get all flustered when they play the Colts. Amusing.

I saw a very interesting article yesterday talking about the Colts starting Rob Morris. Before last night he had started 2 games this season for the Colts. In those 2 games, the Colts D gave up an average of 117 rushing yards. Last night with less then 2 minutes to go the Bengals were at 112 rushing yards before they got some garbage runs in the final seconds. Methinks Rob Morris needs to start the rest of the season.

Brett Favre throw int's. Lots of them. Brett Favre also threw Javon Walker (his best reciever) under the bus, then he got injured, ended his season, and plays for the Broncos now.

Brett Favre is 6-8 in the worst division in the NFL with W's against Detroit, Miami, Arizona, Minny, San Fran, and Detroit (Detroit again, because you see they play in the worst division in the NFL as well)

Brett Favre is selfish and will probably string his team and fan base along again throughout this whole off-season too, but most importantly....

Low blow on the AFL/NHL comparison Dan. I think what the lockout demonstrated was that hockey is a niche sport and it has embraced that mantra by appealing to the hardcore fans through blogs and other digital friendly intiatives.

Any league that wasn't in existence 20 years ago is of course going to have a greater "expansion" then a sport that has been around for close to 100 years.

Everyone seems to like to pick on the NHL as the bastard stepchild of professional sports but the game is getting healthier and in all honesty I don't want it expanding (hmm 2 teams in Phoenix, let's do it!).

Right on Dave! Well put! So in depth! For such an awful QB, you people who post in this blog -this blog that apparently lacks so much variety - sure spend a lot of time talking about Favre. Aren't guys like you the reason this blog has become so boring?

I like Deadspin, but not the comments section. This is better. Too many posters, and there's no chance for a conversation.

A lot of people are off work or on vacation, so it should die down in here.

Anyway, I think Brett is hurting the Pack's future at this point, but Dan is WAAAAY too bitter. The OC might be a really good coach. If he is, then that means that Favre is probably worse than advertised, eh?

We spotted our first case of JP fever here in Buffalo! It only took 2 years!

I mean, fewer posters, within reason, is usually better. You need enough for variety, but I generally found the Dailie Quickie moderated chat frustrating because there was no continuity. It was just a contest for best comment, edited by a pro-Florida, Anti-Yankee guy in Connecticut.

No offense, but I am here for the the writers work, not the responses, which are generally negative, just to be negative. Don't get me wrong, we have some great commentators (CMFost, Big D, nyc-steelers fan, etc.) who bring stuff to the table, I'm just sayin is all.

I've gone over it a billion times. Unless the Jets and Jaguars each lose their last two games, the only way we can get in is if Denver and KC finish tied at 9-7 (Denver would be out based in the intra-division tiebreaker), PLUS the Titans and Jags each finish at 9-7 (Jags would be out based in intra-division tiebreaker), PLUS Cincy loses their last two.

It's very possible - the schedules shape up very nicely for all of this to fall into place. It just remains to be seen what will happen, because we have to have 11 games go the way they should and have one pretty big upset (San Fran at Denver). I give us a one-in-fifteen chance.

well you seem more knowledgable about their chances than I. Everything is of course based on the hope that the steelers win out. But wouldn't the steelers win the tiebreak against the jets (if they split their last two games) based on better record against common opponents (since they both would have the same crappy 6-6 confereence record)?. I figure Jax has to lose two no matter what (and they don't have the easiest schedule in the world), since the winner of Broncs/cincy gets in over the steelers, unless, as you say, broncs/chiefs are both 9-7. So if miami can get the W over the jets this weekend, and jags lose two against the pats and chiefs, its simply a matter of cincy or broncos losing two in a row, and since the steelers play cincy, I should be rooting for denver, no? That's just '4' games that would have to fall the right way, compared to your 11. But I may be wrong about the NYJ/steelers tiebreak.

ma4tt and nyc-steelers --i think you guys will get the win against the ravens this weekend. i hate to say it, but its always a "playoff atmosphere" when our teams play and in this game the advantage is definitely w/ the steelers. After the ugly loss to baltimore last time and the fact that its at home in chillier weather... i think your chances are good. i mean, i'm not rooting for it or anything, but i can definitely see it happening.

What ever happened to SlamBall? Did anyone watch that on TNT or SpiekTV or whatever it was back then? I would love to see that get a contract with ESPN. Better yet, I would love to play that with my buddies. Nothing like mixing trampolines and basketball hoops to make for some great dunks and even better injuries.

I always assumed part of the "turn-off" as hockey being not as popular as it is, is simply that you can't play it in your backyard unless it's been freezing cold for a good week. That eliminates a lot of the USA (and just makes northerners mad at the idea that places without natural ice having NHL teams).

Seriously, though, when you're a kid, everyone goes out and shoots hoops in the driveway or at the park....football after school, or wiffle ball. Hockey requires ice....and LOTS of equipment. Even roller hockey still requires multi-hundred dollar skates plus a helmet and pads and a stick. Compare that to a $20 football, or $3 wiffle bat and ball.

I would have picked the Dolphins to beat the Jets, IF the Jets hadn't lain down against the Bills. Everyone pointed out their easy schedule, but you had to KNOW there was at least one trap game in there.

Another alternative to slamball (which was pretty cool, actually) would be just to have a basketball league with 6-foot rims. Why reward height? Let EVERYONE be able to dunk all the time, and see what happens. Probably something violent :)

You're right about the Jets, I misspoke. If the Jets and Jags win both, we're screwed. That's what I meant. We do win the tiebreaker against the Jets based on common opponents (3-2 vs. 0-4, different # of games because we played Cleveland twice).

I don't see how Jax is going to beat New England (see last year's playoff game) and then go win at KC anyway... they should be 8-8 and out of it. But you never know. If they get to 9-7....

We just really need to root for the Chiefs to win both games (Oak and Jax, looks good), Denver to beat Cincy and lose to San Fran (very, very iffy, especially with the SF game being AT Denver), and the Jets to at least lose at Miami. That's 5 big games right there.

The "11 games" scenario includes stuff that *should* happen... for example, Buffalo losing at Baltimore the last week of the year. If they win out, they're 4-1 vs our 2-3 in common opponent games and would edge us out. I can't see Baltimore losing at home in the last week with a bye riding on the game, but you never know. Maybe they clinch a bye this week & rest their starters or something....

Also, other big games that SHOULD go our way but might not are the two Tennessee games. If Jax manages to eke out that win v. New England to go 9-7, and Tennessee doesn't win both to match (and KO Jax) at 9-7, then we lose that tiebreaker to the Jags.

So the aforementioned 5, plus the two Tenn games and the second Jax game makes 8. Add in the two Steelers games that still have to be won, and you have 10. I am not sure where I had an 11th game, but I think it's because I was under the mistaken assumption that the Jets had to lose both.

I played street hockey a few times in high school. It was weird, that when my little brother a couple of years later used to go to the same place, his friends were all on wheels, instead of just running around like we did.

If everyone in the country lost out on something due to underage drinking, who'd be left with anything anyways? It's good civil disobedience by Trump NOT to punish someone like that. Although honestly, where's the gut if she's such a lush already? (Maybe she pukes them back up?)

Are there any computer progams out there that allow you to enter variables (specific game result predictions) to determine who ends up where in the playoffs? You need one to handle "strength of victory" crap. That's pretty BCS-ish, actually.

Colts should get the 2nd seed. Got the inside track to it and they have Houston and Miami left on the schedule. They also know they need that bye week to hopefully get some people healthy. I think they take care of business. Sorry Ravens fans.. I don't see it happening. Also, if NE plays the Colts in Indy.. that NE playoff domination comes to a quick end this year.

brian-I do not know of anything software similar to that in existence for the general public, but I am willing to bet it wouldn't be that hard to write. And, if that is true, then someone has probably already done it and posted it on a free software site by now. Otherwise, I am going to add that to my list of fun software projects to complete.

A reason why you should not count the Patriots out from winning the Super Bowl.

Points Per Game Allowed (Which to me is the most important defensive stat)2001 - 17 PPGA - 6th in NFL - Won Super Bowl2002 - 21.1 - 17th in NFL - Did not make Playoffs2003 - 14.9 - 1st in the NFL - Won Super Bowl2004 - 16.3 - 2nd in the NFL - Won Super Bowl2005 - 21.1 - 17th in the NFL - Lost in 2nd round of PLayoffs2006 - 13.8 - 2nd in the NFL - TBD

New England would be better off playing against Indy on the road. they have lost 3 home games this year (including one to Indy). Plus, Tom Brady has never lost in a dome and his record on astroturf is pretty amazing as well. Maybe that's why the Pats went to a turf field at home even? I'd take Brady's dome streak against Payton's playoff streak any day...

This is a decent site to figure out some of the playoffs possibilities

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/nfl.html

There's a flaw in the methodology somewhere. They're claiming that Falcons beat Panthers eliminate the Packers, but the Falcons at 8-8 lose the 2-team tiebreaker to the Packers at 8-8 due to conference record. So I'm confused.

Shit, CMFOST, that site is depressing. 1% chance for the steelers, huh? And here ma4tt and I are convincing ourselves how possible this thing is.

But did you notice on the site that bengals, broncs, and jets all have greater than 50% shot of making the playoffs? I mean, huh? Of course part of that for the jets is they have a slight possibility of winning their division, but doesn't it seem like the percentages don't jibe with reality? I'm not a mathemetician, but something doesn't seem right, there. My right brain is happy again, maybe the steelers do have a greater than 1% chance, and whoever computed those scenarios has some major flaw in their algorithms. Woo-hoo!

That playoffstatus.com website was pretty cool. Yeah, not exactly what I was looking for, but intriguing nonetheless. The Eagles can still be the 2 seed?! The Pats could still end up with the top record in the league?!

What I didn't get from it, though, was whether or not those probabilities assume 50-50 for each game.

OK, I know, I'm the only one who cares, but I am looking forward to tonight's Poinsettia Bowl ... as our own Garrett Wolfe needs just 100 yards to reach 2,000 for the season.

TCU is the #5 run defense in the nation, but ... they play in a pass-wacky conference ... so is the #5 ranking a reflection of their dominating run defense, or a reflection of the fact that no one in their conference runs the football?

We shall see.

I understand that the alums and fans of the BCS schools find these minor bowls annoying, and so on and so on. But, for schools like NIU, who had a so-so season at 7-5, but who have had some success the last five years ... as well as the nation's leading rusher ... we get a chance for people to see us play who might not otherwise see us or care.

I hope we will represent the MAC well this evening, and I hope that folks here will tune in for a bit to see some of the best the MAC has to offer.

If I read the playoff rules right, when you have a 4-way tie, all you're doing is eliminating teams, one at a time.

So you might accidentally eliminate a team you'd rather keep in (say, you beat them), because they got eliminated at an earlier stage in the proceedings. Then your head-to-head over that team is meaningless, because you then have to avoid elimination in a tie-breaking step no longer considering them.

Call me a homer, but having watched every minute of Chicago games this year, I find it hard to fall prey to the media hype as of late that they are the Worst. 12-2 team. ever.

I state they had a very weak schedule, but they've stepped up for the 4 big national games they did have this year. (SEA, @NYG, @N.E., @StL,) Grossy only botched one performance of those three (@N.E.), yet it was still 17-14. Those are the equivalent of their "playoff atmosphere" games, and I think they've shined on them all. You can see the difference in their intensity in those type games.

I can't blame them for being lazy and executing poor against ARI, MIA, and TB, because I think mentally those games are boring to them.

For example, if the Packers, San Francisco, and St. Louis Rams all finish at 8-8, it's not all 3 teams that are considered for the spot. First, you eliminate either San Francisco or St. Louis since they're in the same division.

So even though the Packers lost to the Rams, St. Louis loses to San Francisco in the tiebreaker because San Fran will finish with a better divisional record than the Rams.

Which is why the Packers need either the Rams to lose once or the 49ers to win twice.

Who is going to run the Denver offense with Andre Miller gone? It is nice to have scorers like Melo, AI and JR Smith but do they expect AI to get them the ball or are they going to expand Boykin's role. I think it could be a good move for the Nuggets as long as they are not in the lottery and could be losing out on some of the players coming out in the next 2 years.

I'm with you jo fer. What is most perplexing is that they are being evaluated at their most vulnerable point right now, when they are missing players due to injury, or not playing others for fear of it. This defense that you will see the last two weeks (and I don't think it's going to look any better) is not the one that we'll see in the playoffs. As for the offense, you'd swear that some writers are implying that Grossman winning the last two games on his own is a bad thing.

I guess this is a move for Greg Oden. I guess. This is the Barkley trade all over again. I don't get it. I'm not even a Sixers fan, but I love Melo and AI. And I'm not sure this is such a good idea for either team. Is it possible to trade a superstar and make both teams worse?

Pretty good deal by the 76ers, all things considered. 3 picks in a draft that will be much deeper/better than last year, not to mention they should have a good chance in the Oden lottery.

The Bears are NOT going to the Super Bowl. The defense has been hit with injuries and it's not good enough to cover for the offense's ineptitude. Grossman will kill them in the playoffs, and someone will knock them off.

just kidding, sheldiz....I skimmed down the list of names in the groups to see which posters I recognized. Saw the last names match up...both of you could be related to my mom's side of the family, for all I know.

If Isiah gets the Knicks into the 8th slot, he's pretty much screwing them out of Oden. You know that'd be fixed....only Zeke could fail by succeeding like THAT. (At least I hope, I don't want to see the Celtics in first place defaulting into the playoffs.)

So AI is going to get 13 or so games to establish himself as the alpha dog, and then you're throwing 'Melo back on the team? What if they go on a tear with AI and the rest of the team is more receptive to giving the ball to AI than to 'Melo? This is going to be interesting...

While I'll agree that the Bears may not be going to the super bowl, it will not be because they played their absolute best and fell short. That is my only point. When hitting on all cylinders there is no doubt they are the best team in the league. They have done that several times this year, (i.e. SF, Buf, Sea)

The likely scenario is they will meet New Orleans and the league will fix the Saints victory with some shady calls. (slow down, I'm not saying N.O. isn't good, in fact they are very good. But let's all admit the league WANTS them to be in the super bowl and might help push them a little)

I could be wrong but I think it's the Magic's #1 this year, from the Jameer Nelson trade, that the sixers would get from Denver. So more then likely both picks will be in the 20's but Philly could package the picks and move up obviously.

I see Anthony-Iverson in a similar light to Shaq-Kobe, with these differences:1. Won't be as dominant (duh)2. Will like each other, because:3. Won't care who the alpha dog is (because there's not always such thing! ex.: Who's the alpha dog on the Bulls? The Pistons? Jazz? etc.)

Seriously, if you're Carmelo and you're now rolling with the one guy with the most street cred in the NBA, how can you not be happy?

Another thing: a transcendent forward and guard are easier in my mind to match than center and forward. Or, in other words, the more mobile your two best players are, the better the offensive potential between them becomes.

I just realized I compared AI-Melo to Kobe-Shaq, then put out nothing but the differences. Here's the one similarity: the Nuggets/Lakers are/were better after the trade than before. I mean, let's face it: the Nuggets weren't a championship team, now they could be.

While I'll agree that the Bears may not be going to the super bowl, it will not be because they played their absolute best and fell short. That is my only point. When hitting on all cylinders there is no doubt they are the best team in the league. They have done that several times this year, (i.e. SF, Buf, Sea)

Umm, yes, there is doubt. At this point San Diego is clearly better, and there are a host of other teams in the discussion. What the Bears did in September doesn't matter so much now.

AI and Melo is going to be a tough fit. Both are pure scorers looking to shoot first. AI can rack up assists and may be willing to take a backseat at this stage in his career, but then why trade for him in the first place? Why would you want to limit AI, he's the best scorer in the league. That's like running the ball 40 times with Peyton Manning, or putting Johan Santana as the closer.

It'll also be interesting to see how the AI/Melo/Karl triangle works out. Karl and Melo are not friends, and now that Karl can replace Melo's scoring, he may see less need to put up with his BS.

"At this point San Diego is clearly better". Great then they should just end the season today and declare San Diego the champions.

Clearly better according to who? the media? This is the same media that had the Bears untouchable in September, and the Colts in November, and now San Diego in December. Do you see the irony there? Is Chicago NOW suddenly NOT CAPABLE of being good anymore?

This isn't college football. Saying Chicago is not a super bowl contender because of a "perceived" shortcoming, (which I don't get because they are still winning games) doesn't perclude them from competing for the championship like it does in college where late season swagger is the only thing that gets you to the title game.

I like to think when I do post I bring something to the table. Granted I make preposterous claims like the gators being able to hang with the bucs in a game but I like to think that I do make valid points from time to time.

I would have to say that this is among my top three or four blogs to read because of the way Dan is a total homer for the gators. It is his blog and his opinion. We all know how opinions are like assholes but if you don't like it don't read it.

As for the Arena league I can't wait to see how it does with the involvement on ESPN. I love going to the games because there is always a ton of points. It also helps that the tampa bay storm have been extremely successful from the start. I only wish I didn't have to live in orlando where they bash the storm because of the damn predators. Can't wait for this years I-4 war.

I'm not a big NBA fan but I am interested to see how Melo and Iverson play together. There probably isn't a more exciting player than AI and with Melo coming into his own as a dominant player should make them fun enough to where even non fans might be entertained. What I want to know is how will you defend the nuggets since if you double up on one of them someone is going to be wide open for a look. I figure if they try to double up on both of them Camby will rip them a new one. I wonder if they are now favorites to at least reach the finals.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.