As we're all aware, a new schedule went into effect on 5/22/2017. This schedule is the result of the work of the Worcester Line Working Group and incorporates the concept I proposed in my change.org petition back in August of 2016. This post will explore a number of topics related to this new schedule:

1) Worcester Line Working Group (recap)2) Why are all AM trains late on this new schedule?3) Results of the public comment process

1) Worcester Line Working Group (and how we got a new schedule)

First of all, it's important to remember that the schedule changes are only made twice a year: in May and November. This is because every time the schedule changes, the entire crew rotations for all lines need to be changed - which takes time and effort. I believe that there are contractual obligations for the crews to have a six month duration for their assignments, also. Most crewmembers do not stay on one line throughout their workday, so it's really only possible to change all the schedules for all the lines at the same time. There have been minor schedule changes published in other months, primarily to accommodate construction or to correct problems with published schedules.

With that in mind, here's a recap timeline of how we got to the new 5/22/2017 schedule:

September 2016: With the volume of public interest in the Framingham-Worcester line schedule increasing, as well as upcoming infrastructure changes for the line (Boston Landing and the double track through Beacon Park), MBTA General Manager Brian Shortsleeve decides to keep the current May 2016 schedule (with the July tweaks) in place and not make changes in November 2016. At the same time, he invents and convenes the "Worcester Line Working Group."

September - December 2016: The Worcester Line Working Group meets approximately bi-weekly to discuss potential changes for the schedule. The Worcester Line Working Group eventually included: Lt. Governor Karyn Polito, Rep. Alice Peisch (D - Wellesley), Rep. Carolyn Dykema (D - Southboro, Westboro), Rep. James O'Day (D - Worcester), Stuart Loosemore (Worcester Chamber of Commerce), Jessica Strunkin (495/Metrowest Partnership), Brian Shortsleeve (MBTA General Manager), Jody Ray (MBTA Assistant General Manager in charge of Commuter Rail Railroad Operations), two Deputy Directors of MBTA Railroad Operations, David Scorey (Keolis CEO/GM), the Keolis Manager of Operations Planning, a general public member / commuter from Wellesley, and me.

March 2017: The Worcester Line Working Group reconvenes to review the public comments and finalize the May 2017 schedule. See item #3 below.

May 2017: The new schedule is implemented. Whew!

2) Why are all AM trains late on this new schedule? (AKA: It's not my fault. Really!)

As almost everyone has noticed, the AM on-time performance has been less than stellar throughout May and June. In fact, almost every train is late in the morning. Believe it or not, it isn't yet possible to blame the new 5/22/2017 schedule.

As fate would have it, the last stretch of the line that needed tie replacement and railbed resurfacing was in one of the most critical stretches for us: from Wellesley to Southboro on track 2, which is the inbound track for the morning rush hour. This project started in April 2017 and should be fully completed as of Friday 6/23/2017 (although I'm not sure when or if they will complete the tie replacement directly within Framingham station, which appears to have stalled).

As described in this blog post, tie replacement and railbed resurfacing requires speed restrictions on the disturbed area. The MBTA has implemented policies and procedures to minimize the length of the speed restriction, but it can't be eliminated.

These speed restrictions are directly responsible for almost all of the morning delays we have experienced in May and June. Obviously there have been significant isolated events such as equipment failure, but I'm talking about the daily 5-15 minute delays that have been persistent.

One of the recent questions I have heard is that once the construction work and speed restrictions moved west of Framingham, why were local trains that originated in Framingham (and therefore didn't have to encounter the speed restrictions) affected?

The reason for this is that the AM schedule is now "maxed out" and a delay to any train can easily cascade to following trains. What do I mean by "maxed out?"

First of all, it's important to understand the basics of automatic block signals. That sounds technically complicated, and I describe it in detail in the glossary, but it's a simple concept.

The line is broken up into blocks, with a signal at each end of each block. Very generally, the concept is that only one train can occupy each block at a time. So let's imagine a train line with 4 blocks: A, B, C, and D:

Block A: occupied by a trainsignal between block A and block B: Red, to indicate that a train in block B shouldn't enter block ABlock B: emptysignal between block B and block C: Yellow, to indicate that a train in block C should go slow through block B and be prepared to stop at the red signal between A & B. Block C: emptysignal between blocks C and block D: Green, since blocks C and B are empty. Block D: the next train

(This is highly simplified and just here to illustrate the concept. It gets a little more complicated in real life, but this suffices for the purposes of our discussions here. In other words, railfans and railroad employees, don't fill up the comments below with how a red automatic signal doesn't prevent a train from passing it, etc. etc.).

Now consider that on the AM inbound schedule, local trains depart just after the express trains pass through Framingham (it would be somewhat silly to put a local train in front of an express!). Using the block concept above, it is obvious that the local train can't be scheduled to leave immediately after the express train - otherwise it would be stuck at a red light until the express got to the next block and then the local would still have a yellow signal (and slow speed) until the express got 2 blocks ahead.

On the Framingham-Worcester line, the block length (and therefore signal spacing), speed limits, and other considerations associated with the automatic block signal system mean that ideal minimum time between trains is 8 minutes. This interval is the most crucial element for the AM schedule.

Take a look at the intervals between express and local trains at Framingham in the morning on the new 5/22/2017 schedule: there are intervals of 8-9 minutes for each pair of a local train following an express train. Therefore, it is critical that the express train gets through Framingham on time - otherwise, almost any delay to an express train will delay the local train behind it.

Why is the schedule built with the bare minimum spacing between local and express trains at Framingham? The answer is at Yawkey, where the expresses meet the locals at the other end of their express runs. Taking a look at the interval between expresses and locals at Yawkey reveals intervals of 10-12 minutes - close to that minimum 8 minutes for block spacing. The locals need to leave Framingham early enough so that they can get to Yawkey early enough to not delay the following express train.

This is how the schedule is "maxed out" from 5:15 AM to 9 AM. There isn't any room on the schedule to insert another train - the local trains are just barely squeaking between the express trains. The local trains depart Framingham at the minimum interval AFTER an express, and arrive at Yawkey close to the minimum interval BEFORE the next express.

The good news is that we now have every possible train we can get, given the current infrastructure. This means the frequency of trains is maximized. The bad news is that delays to any one train can quickly cascade to every other train following it, and that is exactly what has been happening with the recent tie replacement project.

With an express train encountering a 1-2 mile speed restriction in Southboro as a result of the tie replacement project, it becomes 5-10 minutes late. That's enough to delay the departure of the local train from Framingham, and then the local train is 'chasing the signals' of the express train until the express can get far enough ahead of the local train. For example, if the local train departs Framingham 5 minutes late due to the late express train, it might accumulate another 5-10 minutes of delays by the time it gets to Natick Center since it is operating at reduced speed due to the "less than clear" signals it is seeing.

All of this means that it is really too early to judge the new 5/22/2017 schedule, since the construction related speed restrictions are skewing the on-time performance.

Keolis intended to send "stone trains" last week to dump new ballast along the last stretches of the tie replacement project in Southboro. Once that ballast is tamped into place, the speed restrictions should be lifted after 24 hours.

There are or were a number of other issues that have resulted in speed restrictions and prevented us from seeing the true performance of the new schedule.

2A) Intervale Road bridge: In March 2017, during the routine quarterly inspection of all commuter rail lines, the geometry train discovered an issue at the Intervale Road overpass in Weston (between Route 128 and Wellesley Farms station). This resulted in a 30 mph speed restriction for every train passing over this bridge. Some work must have been completed at the bridge, but the speed restriction was not removed until the geometry train reinspected the line in early June 2017. The Intervale Road bridge will be replaced in the next year or so.

2B) CP 6 construction: "CP 6" is the new interlocking (set of switches) being constructed in Brighton alongside the Mass Pike near the original Staples store location (between Brooks Street and Parsons Street). This interlocking is being built to replace CP 4 which was removed & displaced by the Boston Landing station construction. At various times over the past few weeks, there has been a temporary stop sign for trains on track 2 (the AM inbound track) near this construction area. The stop sign has not existed every day, but when it is in place, trains typically stop there momentarily or proceed slow after receiving permission to go past the stop sign by the work foreman. The CP 6 construction is not scheduled to be completed until well into the Fall, so intermittent speed restrictions may plague us for a few months here.

2C) Heat kink near Worcester station: Early in June, a heat kink was found on the track leading into Worcester station (what's a heat kink? see the picture and explanation here). The kink was repaired without disrupting service to Worcester station, but the entire section of track needed to have ties replaced and railbed resurfacing done. This resulted in a 10 mph speed restriction for 1-2 miles of track immediately east of Worcester. Obviously this is devastating to all trains leaving Worcester, since the speed limit - even on the controlled siding leading to the station - is usually much faster than 10 mph. Keolis intended to complete the work in this area by Friday 6/23/2017.

2D) Speed Restriction near Boston Landing: In early June during the same inspection which cleared the Intervale Road speed restriction, the geometry train discovered a problem near Boston Landing, resulting in a temporary speed restriction there of 30 mph. Keolis has indicated that work will be executed to repair the problem and the speed restriction there should be removed by Friday 6/30/2017.

Hopefully once the majority of these speed restrictions are lifted in the very near future, the on-time performance of our line will improve dramatically. I'm ever the optimist...

2E) Dwell Times: However, it must be noted that some astute riders have noticed troubling delays that appear to unrelated to the speed restrictions described above. These observations are related to longer dwell times at certain stations, increasing any delay that a train might have already had. There have been various reasons observed or noted: i) Reduced staffing on trains, resulting in fewer doors being opened. Fewer doors means increased dwell time while passengers climb through the limited doors that are open.ii) Delayed opening of doors. Conductors not opening doors immediately when a train stops can result in delays while passengers wait for doors and traps to be opened. iii) Not all doors being opened. This could be due to conductor behavior OR mechanical problems, but when only one door/trap instead of both doors/traps at a particular boarding point are opened, all the passengers are funneled through half the usual access points, potentially resulting in increased dwell time.

2F) West Natick Mini-High construction: Finally, the reconstruction of the mini-high platforms at West Natick has recently started, and riders have noticed a flagman at the station to protect the work crew. I don't have details on how long this project will take or if there will be speed restrictions or a temporary stop sign in this area. Even if they did implement something restricting the speed of trains at West Natick, it would probably not result in big delays since all trains (except the Heart To Hub) are stopping at West Natick anyway.

We'll have to keep an eye on these potential issues.

​3) Results of the Public Comment period for the new schedule

As described above, a draft schedule was published in December 2016 and public comments were gathered through a combination of meetings, an on-line survey, and via phone and e-mail. In March 2017, the Worcester Line Working Group met to review those comments and finalize the schedule, which is how we arrived at the final schedule implemented on 5/22/2017.

Overall, 282 people completed the online survey, while 6 people submitted separate comments via e-mail or letters. A number of people commented at each meeting (I attended each one). The MBTA aggregated the responses and presented some statistics regarding the responses, but since it was a self-selected survey and not a scientifically valid poll of a randomly selected subset of the ridership, the statistics from the survey don't represent valid statistics for the ridership as a whole. At the Worcester Line Working Group meeting in March we all recognized that fact and used the statistics for what they were - a method to generalize the responses from the survey.

We discussed a number of topics during the March meeting and I'll explore the most relevant topics here:

3A) AM commute: Most of the survey responses indicated "more or similarly convenient" for the AM commute on the draft May 2017 schedule. There were some complaints about the minor changes in departure times for some trains. There were no recurring complaints or issues which motivated the Worcester Line Working Group to reconsider the draft AM schedule, so there were no changes to the station stop patterns on the draft AM schedule. Some minor tweaks were made to certain departure and arrival times after the full modeling process was completed, but no station stops were added or removed from the draft schedule published in December 2016.

3B) PM commute: The survey responses for the PM commute on the draft May 2017 schedule were split between "similar, less, and more convenient." There was a wide range of comments and reasons for this variation.

The draft May 2017 schedule combined what had been separate express and local trains (departing South Station at 3:30 PM and 3:40 PM respectively) into one full length (Boston to Worcester) local train. As previously explained (see item #8 here), there were a number of reasons for making this change. Approximately 40 comments / survey responses indicated dissatisfaction with this change. We discussed these comments at length at the March meeting and decided to stick with the plan to combine the two trains.

A number of responses commented on the lack of outbound service between 2 PM and 3:30 PM.

Additional responses indicated concern regarding the change in departure times for PM trains, primarily focused on the change of some trains to a 5 minute earlier departure time. Passengers expressed concern that they would not be able to leave work and get to the trains at the new departure times. However, these comments were not of a sufficient volume to prompt the Working Group to reconsider the overall PM schedule. We also discussed and recognized that people who would be pleased or neutral with the proposed time shift (which could allow people to get home earlier in time for day care pickup or other evening activities) might be less likely to submit comments (on the general theory that people are more apt to complain about negative issues).

3C) Boston Landing: The comments received and decisions made regarding the service schedule for Boston Landing are discussed in this blog post (see item #1).

3D) Heart To Hub: There were a wide variety of comments received on the Heart To Hub, and it occupied a considerable amount of the discussion at the March 2017 meeting of the Worcester Line Working Group. The most publicized comment was a letter from Worcester Mayor Joseph Petty. I responded to that letter in this blog post. The letter was discussed but it was recognized that there is no way to accommodate a "better" time for the Heart To Hub with the current infrastructure.

Twenty three comments about the Heart To Hub were received from riders who indicated they used other trains. These additional comments included requests to change the times (similar to Mayor Petty's letter), to NOT change the times, to add more stops, to NOT add more stops, and to eliminate it completely. None of the themes from these comments generated enough consistent ideas to lead to any particular idea being considered by the Working Group.

The draft schedule published in December 2016 proposed adding Ashland & Framingham to the PM outbound Heart To Hub (see item #9 here). Three comments (including the letter from Mayor Petty as a 'comment') were received in opposition to this idea and three comments were received in support of this idea. At the March 2017 Working Group meeting, this topic was discussed at length. We revisited the reason for adding Framingham and Ashland, which was an attempt to increase ridership on this train which has had very low ridership. Passenger counts indicate approximately 75 passengers use the PM Heart To Hub, and this number is not increasing - it has remained consistent since September 2016.

The Worcester Line Working Group agreed to remove Framingham and Ashland from the PM Heart To Hub with the expectation that there may be other ways to increase the ridership on this train, including targeted marketing efforts.

3E) Express trains: 38 people commented on the express trains. It is very easy to summarize those comments: everyone wants an express train that goes to/from their station without stopping anywhere east of their station. That comment was heard from passengers at every station from Ashland to Wellesley. I had a particularly interesting back-and-forth on this topic with a fellow commuter at the Natick public meeting. She was adamant that all express trains should stop at Natick Center, and she did not seem receptive to the idea that adding stops to express trains would a) increase overcrowding on them, or b) increase the trip duration for passengers west of Natick Center. My thoughts on where express and local service should start and end are summarized at item #10 here, and none of the comments I heard or read (during this public comment process or at any other time) have led me to reconsider my opinion that West Natick is the easternmost station that should get express train service. [The comments section below remains open for all you Natick Center passengers to make your best argument for express service!]

It is my hope and expectation that we'll keep the Worcester Line Working Group intact and use it as a forum to discuss future schedule and infrastructure changes.

Changing the Heart to Hub train to times that align with a 9-5 workday in Boston (as recently requested by Worcester politicians) will devastate the schedule for the non-Worcester ridership of the Framingham-Worcester line. It's just not possible with the current infrastructure that we have.

Recently, Worcester Mayor Joseph Petty sent a letter to the MBTA requesting that the times of the Heart To Hub train be changed to be better aligned with a 9-5 workday and that no stops be added to the train. While these might be reasonable requests that would add value to MBTA Commuter Rail passengers from the Worcester area, those requests need to be considered in the context of the entire Framingham-Worcester line ridership.

[I discuss the rationale of adding Framingham and Ashland as station stops to the evening Heart to Hub train at item #9 in this previous blog post. I won't repeat that explanation here.]

The current schedule of the Heart to Hub train is: AM (P552): Depart Worcester: 8:05 AMArrive South Station: 9:07 AM

PM (P551):Depart South Station: 7:35 PMArrive Worcester: 8:40 PM

The Heart to Hub train also stops at Yawkey and Back Bay but currently does not stop at any other station between Yawkey and Worcester. The Heart to Hub train was originally announced in October 2015 and was added to the schedule in May 2016. There are many blog posts here about the Heart to Hub train and they can all be found using the "Heart to Hub" category link for this blog.

The draft schedule that will be implemented in May 2017 proposes these changes for the Heart to Hub train:AM (P552): Depart Worcester: 8:00 AMArrive South Station: 9:06 AM

Clearly neither the current nor the proposed times for the Heart to Hub train are ideal for the vast majority of commuters working a 'typical' 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM (or close) workday in Boston. In that context, the request by the Worcester politicians seems to make sense. But the solution - a schedule that answers this request - is fraught with problems.

Hypothetical "Ideal" Schedule for Heart to Hub train

In order to demonstrate the problems with a modified schedule for the Heart to Hub train, I have developed a hypothetical schedule with the Heart to Hub train at a 'more desirable' time. For simplicity, I have only modeled the evening commute, but the morning commute has similar problems.

In order to develop this schedule, I have applied the same constraints that currently exist for the infrastructure that exists on the Framingham-Worcester line. These constraints are:

1) Minimum of 10 minutes between departures from South Station.2) Minimum of 12 minutes between any trains arriving at Framingham.3) Minimum of 30 minutes between trains arriving at Worcester.

​The reasons for these constraints are explained at the bottom of this blog post.

The other 'rules' I applied were not really constraints, but were used to guide the process of building the schedule:1) All trains destined to points west of Framingham are express trains. These express trains skip Boston Landing and all stations before West Natick; and2) All local trains terminate at Framingham and make all stops between Boston and Framingham. These rules (and common sense) dictate that a local train can depart close behind an express train - but not the other way around. It is impossible to have a local train depart just before an express train - the local train would block the track!

Hypothetical PM Framingham-Worcester Schedule

NOTE: I am NOT proposing that the outbound Heart to Hub train stop in Framingham. I have included the time that it PASSES THROUGH Framingham because that is a constraint in scheduling it. Hence the italicized "strikethrough" for that time - it is NOT A STOP, but that time is the approximate time the train passes through Framingham.

The methodology used to develop this hypothetical schedule was as follows:

1) I aimed to have the Heart To Hub depart Boston at a 'reasonable' time for a worker leaving their office at 5 PM. Assigning a departure time of 5:10 PM seemed to be reasonable to account for walking to the station. It also allowed me to keep the three earlier trains (3:30 PM, 4:20 PM, and 4:30 PM departures) at the same times as they are proposed on the May 2017 draft schedule.

2) Having the Heart to Hub depart at 5:10 PM 'works' because it fulfills all three of the operating constraints:a) It departs 40 minutes after the previous departure from Boston;b) It passes through Framingham approximately 24 minutes after the previous train; andc) It arrives in Worcester 31 minutes after the previous train. These metrics also show that it is impossible to move those previous trains to LATER departure times:d) if the 4:20 PM express train departed later, it would create a conflict at Worcester with less than 30 minutes between arrivals; ande) if the 4:30 PM local train departed later, the Heart to Hub train could possibly 'catch up' to it somewhere prior to Framingham (although I will acknowledge that the 4:30 PM local train could probably move 5-10 minutes later).

3) For the remainder of the schedule, I kept the total number of outbound rush hour trips at 10, which is the same as what is proposed on the May 2017 draft schedule for the PM rush hour PLUS the Heart to Hub.

4) With the Heart to Hub departure and arrival times set and the earlier train times locked in, the next step is to build the remainder of the PM schedule. First, we can add an express train with a departure time from Boston of 5:20 PM. Again, this train just barely fulfills all three criteria:a) It departs Boston 10 minutes after the previous train; b) It passes through Framingham 16 minutes after the Heart to Hub train; andc) It arrives in Worcester 29 minutes after the Heart to Hub train.

5) The next train needs to be a local train in order to offer service to stops before West Natick. To comply with the scheduling constraints, the local train can depart at 5:30 PM. This train then meets all three criteria:a) It departs Boston 10 minutes after the previous train;b) It arrives at Framingham 21 minutes after the previous train; andc) Worcester is not a factor since it terminates in Framingham.

6) To maintain consistent service to all stations, the next train is an express. Assigning it a 6:00 PM departure from South Station allows it to fulfill all three criteria:a) It departs Boston 30 minutes after the previous train;b) It arrives at Framingham 18 minutes after the previous train; andc) It arrives at Worcester 38 minutes after the previous train.

7) The 6:10 PM, 6:40 PM, and 6:50 PM departures from South Station follow the same pattern established for the 5:20 PM, 5:30 PM, and 6:00 PM departures from South Station.

What's the Problem?

The above hypothetical schedule for Heart To Hub passengers probably looks great if you want to get to Worcester after leaving your office at 5 PM. So where's the problem? First, let's take a look at the draft schedule proposed for May 2017.

A comparison of this proposed draft with the hypothetical schedule reveals the problems:

1) Passengers on P521 (the 5:00 PM express) have their commute pushed 20 minutes later. This train is the most popular train in the evening commute and carries an approximate passenger load of 1,400 passengers. For simplicity's sake, let's assume that those 1400 passengers are evenly distributed to all 7 destinations (which is NOT a valid assumption - data shows that Framingham and West Natick have much higher ridership than other stations). This assumption means that approximately 200 passengers are destined for Worcester - and those passengers would benefit from the new Heart to Hub times. BUT THE OTHER 1,200 PASSENGERS WOULD BE DELAYED 20 MINUTES. Even if you try to stretch the ridership count at Worcester to assume that Worcester has a disproportionate share of the ridership or assume that some Grafton passengers would drive to Worcester to take advantage of the Heart to Hub, there still is over one thousand passengers going to the other stations.

2) Passengers on P593, (the 5:10 PM local) have their commute pushed 20 minutes later. This train is the most popular local train in the evening commute and carries an approximate passenger load of 630 passengers. None of these passengers are destined for Worcester, so ALL 630 PASSENGERS WOULD BE DELAYED 20 MINUTES.

That is a total of approximately 1,800 passengers that have had their commute made 20 minutes later. That far exceeds the TOTAL number of passengers using Worcester Station for their commute.

3) With the hypothetical schedule above, there is a ONE HOUR GAP IN SERVICE FOR ALL STATIONS (except West Natick and Framingham). For example, if you want to go to Wellesley Square, you can only arrive there at 5:08 PM or 6:09 PM. Similarly, if you are destined to Westborough, you can only arrive there at 5:25 PM or 6:26 PM. This is at the height of the rush hour. The proposed May 2017 schedule has trains arriving at those stations every 40 minutes during the same period. This gap in service is a logical consequence of a super express train - the track needs to be clear so that the Heart to Hub can speed through directly to Worcester. 4) The modified arrival times for the 1,800 passengers delayed 20 minutes could have serious consequences for those passengers. During many recent public comment periods, passengers have noted that many after-school child care facilities close at 6 PM. On the current and proposed May 2017 schedule, passengers leaving work around 5 PM can get to their destination with enough time for child care pickup before 6 PM at all stations between Boston and Framingham (Ashland is too close for my comfort - but maybe some passengers try to do it). The hypothetical ideal Heart to Hub schedule prevents anyone from arriving at their destination with enough time to get somewhere else by 6 PM if they leave work around 5 PM. 5) The ~5 PM express train and ~5:15 local train have existed for at least 15 years. Many passengers have built their daily commute / work / life schedules based on these train times, and disrupting that schedule could inconvenience them or push them away from the Commuter Rail. I'm not normally a fan of doing something because "that's the way it's always been done," but when it comes to schedules such as these, there should be some deference given to historical precedent.

Changing the time of the Heart to Hub train to be "better" for Worcester bound passengers leaving their offices at 5 PM clearly presents too many insurmountable problems for passengers from every other station on the line. That's why it can't happen with the current infrastructure on the line.

What's the solution?

If the Heart to Hub train can't be moved around on the schedule to a 'better' time, than what can be done to improve the experience for Worcester (and all) passengers on the line? Better infrastructure is the answer...and in particular:

1) A second platform at Worcester Station and/or improved track layouts around Worcester. Once you start playing with the schedule, you quickly realize that the limitation of a minimum of 30 minutes between arriving trains at Worcester really handicaps any kind of creative scheduling. Eliminating that constraint by adding a second platform or reconfiguring the track layouts could eliminate or change that constraint, which could allow for better scheduling options. See footnote #3 below about Worcester station.

2) Upgrade the speed limit on the line (or sections of the line). Speed limits on a railroad are governed by many factors: track bed and rail conditions, track geometry (it's considered bad form for trains to go flying off of curves at high speeds), signal spacing, and safety considerations (density of grade crossings). Some of those constraints can't be corrected - the curvature of the track can't be changed without realigning entire sections of the railroad, which would most likely be impossible in the densely developed area around the Framingham-Worcester line. But some sections of track are straight or nearly straight, and those sections could have the speed limit changed. That might require upgrading the track bed and/or modifying the signal system, but those are changes which can be done.

3) Install a passing track somewhere on the line. In years past, the schedule included "leapfrog" moves where an express train would pass a local train - while both were travelling in the same direction. With only two tracks between Boston and Worcester, this required opposing traffic to be scheduled so that it would not conflict with the leapfrog moves. This resulted in very tight timing of the schedules for moving trains back and forth. Any upset or delay to the schedule would quickly cascade to multiple trains. Recent schedules have eliminated the "leapfrog" moves, since they introduced an unacceptable risk of cascading delays. I believe this is the correct answer given the infrastructure we have. Adding a passing track (or two!) somewhere between Boston and Framingham would allow these "leapfrog" moves to be added back to the schedule. The real estate exists for additional tracks between Weston and Framingham - this section once had four tracks. Most bridge abutments accommodate four tracks, although most station platforms would need to be rebuilt. The ideal configuration would be to put the passing track(s) between the outer "local" service tracks, although having the local tracks in the middle serviced by center island platforms with the express tracks on the outside could also work. Adding a passing track would allow the Heart to Hub train to move past trains making station stops - reducing or eliminating the long gaps in service for those stations while the track is kept clear for the Heart to Hub with the current infrastructure.

4) Installing high level platforms. Dwell time is the time a train spends in a station while passengers embark or disembark. Dwell time is a large factor in the overall duration of a train's trip. As ridership increases, dwell times increase - add 30 seconds of dwell time at 6 stations and you've added 3 minutes to the duration of a trip. High level platforms - where passengers step directly onto the train rather than needing to climb the stairs on the train from the platform into the train vestibule - dramatically reduce dwell time. Not only can passengers board more quickly (climbing stairs is slow), but ALL of the doors of a train can be remotely opened and closed (like a subway car) allowing MORE passengers to board at the same time. Both Yawkey and South Station have high level platforms for the entire length of every platform - and the soon to open Boston Landing station will also have full length high level platforms. But every other station (including Back Bay) has either all low level platforms or a combination of low level platforms and a "mini-high" platform that offers some handicapped accessibility.Constructing high level platforms at every station would be expensive - but they don't all need to be done at once. Changing the highest ridership stations to high level platforms (especially Back Bay) would be money well spent.

5) Electrification. Now we're talking about very long term but very beneficial capital investment. Electric powered trains offer many advantages over the diesel locomotive trains that the MBTA now uses but the most relevant for this discussion is the quicker acceleration and deceleration (stopping time). Electric trains would decrease the overall duration of every trip - and would be compatible with the proposed North-South Rail Link tunnel through Boston.

6) Stop getting hung up on the marketing buzz of "one hour Worcester to Boston" (which isn't even true anyway). Obviously everyone wants a direct train from their station to Boston at the most convenient time for them. With only two tracks, it just isn't possible. So instead of trying to promote service that benefits one station at the expense of other stations, why not just focus on the really good express train service that Worcester DOES HAVE regardless of the Heart to Hub? Why not add more express trains (that stop at all stations from Framingham to Worcester) paired with local trains so nobody loses service but everyone gets better service?

​Hopefully Worcester residents and politicians will understand that a more comprehensive and collaborative approach to the Framingham-Worcester Commuter Rail line schedule will result in benefits for everyone. That's more productive than pitting the ridership from one station against the ridership from other stations in an unwinnable civil war. Let's work together to make Commuter Rail great again!

Footnotes / Technical reasons for the three constraints:

1) Minimum of 10 minutes between departures from South Station. The block signalling system effectively requires about 8 minutes between trains on the Framingham-Worcester line so that a train behind another train can proceed on 'clear' signals. Rounding that up to 10 minutes allows for some contingency. For a more comprehensive explanation of block signalling, see "Automatic Block Signal System" in the Glossary. Watch the corny little video linked from that definition. 2) Minimum of 12 minutes between any trains arriving at Framingham. Again, this is due to the block signalling system. At Framingham, the signals and switches are densely spaced, which is a good thing - lots of options and room for trains to go to different tracks and get out of the way. So why 12 minutes instead of 8 or 10? Framingham is 21 track miles from Boston - and trains making station stops or just travelling over those 21 miles have more opportunities to encounter minor delays. Moving the spacing to every 12 minutes at Framingham allows for some contingency and reduces the chances of delays for a following train. This constraint actually doesn't come into play very much since the first and last constraints effectively govern the schedule. 3) Minimum of 30 minutes between trains arriving at Worcester. Worcester Union Station is served by a single platform on a siding track off the main line. This track is effectively a dead end for the MBTA - the track past Worcester station is owned and dispatched by CSX - and movements by MBTA / Keolis trains onto CSX property are complicated and difficult. In addition, the storage yard for MBTA trains is EAST of Worcester station. This means that after a train arriving at Worcester is unloaded of passengers, it has to reverse direction and move towards Boston then reverse direction AGAIN and move into the storage yard - all the while, blocking access into the station for any other train. The switch and track configuration in this area does not allow for parallel train movements or train movements around the storage track "entrance."

[Edited 1/18/17: Images and PDF updated with most recent draft schedule. The only significant change is P520 was moved 5 minutes later. A few other trains had minor tweaks to some times. There were NO changes to any times for AM or PM rush hour trains between the 12/16/16 and 1/15/17 versions.]

On December 1, 2016, this blog post provided a preview of the draft morning Framingham-Worcester weekday schedule to be implemented on May 22, 2017. The entire weekday schedule is now available. The schedule is shown in the three images below - the entire schedule plus 'zoomed in' images of the AM and PM rush hour service. Click on any of the images below for a PDF of the entire schedule.

There have been a couple of changes to the morning schedule between December 1 and now, which are outlined below. My entire commentary from the previous blog post is also provided here, just for continuity.

Comments / thoughts:

1) Caveats: This is the official draft proposed schedule, which the MBTA and Keolis have agreed can be implemented in May 2017. But that also comes with a bunch of caveats: a) This is the final draft developed as a result of the Worcester Line Working Group meetings. There might be some minor tweaks to some times as the MBTA completes simulations of the 'runs' over the next few weeks but the concepts shouldn't change - there won't be any stops added to or taken away from particular trains, locals and expresses will stay where they are, and trains won't be shuffled around before the final draft schedule is published by the MBTA. b) The intent is that in a few weeks, this draft / proposed new schedule will be formally published by the MBTA. That will be followed by a formal public comment process. More on that below.c) This is only a PROPOSED schedule, and the public comment process may result in changes being made before it is implemented in May 2017. There is no way to predict if those changes could be substantial or not.

2) Publication of this draft: All members of the Working Group agreed that this draft schedule could be published here on my blog to offer everyone a 'sneak preview' before it gets published officially by the MBTA and the public comment period starts. So if you see something you hate, don't get too fired up yet - remember, this isn't cast in stone.

Enough with the disclaimers...

Morning Rush Hour Inbound Service:

3) Our Petition worked! The AM service is essentially my proposed schedule from the petition that many of you signed, with two major changes:a) the Heart To Hub train is NOT eliminated; andb) P510 stops at Natick Center & 3 Wellesley stations.

3a) Heart to Hub: How did they keep the Heart to Hub? Easy - we're getting another train set. Currently, the AM peak service is serviced by eight train sets. With the addition of another set to increase the number of sets assigned to nine, the Heart To Hub can stay on the schedule. Or another way to look at it is new train P586 (7:14 AM departure from Framingham) can be added to the schedule with the ninth set.

As you can see, there will now be 12 inbound trips between the start of service and 10:00 AM arrival at South Station - 13 if you include the P512 'shoulder service.' It's relatively easy to see how 9 train sets can make 12 or 13 trips - the sets from the first four trips go back outbound and then come back inbound. Those turns would theoretically be:P500 goes back out to Framingham and is 're-used' as new P586. P502 goes back out to Framingham and is 're-used' as new P588. ​P504 goes back out to Framingham and is 're-used' as new P590.(P582 goes back out to Worcester and is 're-used' as P512, but P512 is outside of rush hour, so it doesn't count towards the 12 inbound peak trips, but it is the fourth of the four re-used sets to get to 13 trips from 9 sets.)As previously noted on other blog posts, 4 train sets start the day in Worcester after spending the night in the layover yard. The other 5 sets come from storage in Boston.

Where do they get a ninth train set? How do they get more equipment when they have been struggling to maintain set sizes recently? The MBTA & Keolis have recently undertaken some relatively drastic steps to increase the availability of locomotives & coaches, and the expectation is those projects will be complete well before May 2017. This includes:

a) Off-site overhaul of 10 existing out-of-service locomotives. The request for proposals for this project was recently published and bids are due in mid-December. b) Overhaul of additional out-of-service locomotives by Keolis and other local repair facilities. Technically speaking these projects are a mix of true 'overhauls' and more modest comprehensive repairs or proactive component replacement, but it's easier for me to just say 'overhauls.' c) Off-site execution of 4-year inspections for 19 coaches which have been out-of-service awaiting those inspections. This work will be done in Delaware by a railcar maintenance company.

When complete, these tasks will result in growth of the overall fleet size for the South Side Commuter Rail operations - allowing us to get a ninth set and allowing everyone to benefit from better equipment availability.

3b) P510 at Natick Center & 3 Wellesley stations: My original proposed schedule converted P510 to an express train with similar service as the other express trains - express from West Natick to Yawkey. However, it was pointed out that Natick Center and the 3 Wellesley stations have had inbound service with stops in the 8:20 to 8:30 AM time frame for many years. I went back and checked and it's true - the ~7:30 AM departure from Worcester making all stops to Wellesley Farms has been on the schedule for at least 16 YEARS. So there is something to be said about not removing long-established service that people have built their routine around. From a purely schedule fairness perspective, I'm not thrilled that these 4 stations end up with better service than any other stations, but keeping those 4 stations on the P510 schedule only adds 8 minutes to the duration of P510.

4) Boston Landing: Adding Boston Landing to the local Framingham-originating trains actually allows everyone to get to Boston Landing relatively easily without adding more time to the duration of the express trains. For anyone west of Framingham wishing to go to Boston Landing, they can de-board in Framingham and transfer to the next inbound local train. Each Framingham-originating local departs Framingham only about 8 minutes after the express, so the transfer wait is not onerous. This transfer process actually allows reasonable service for anyone west of Framingham going to any of the stations between Natick Center & Boston Landing. 4a) Boston Landing added to P510: Since 12/1/16, the decision was made to add Boston Landing to P510. This is because the Heart to Hub train prevents a Framingham originating local train from leaving right after P510 comes through Framingham. Passengers on P510 originating west of Framingham would face a 40 minute wait at Framingham to transfer to P590 to get to Boston Landing if P510 didn't stop at Boston Landing.

5) P506 now an express: The major element of my proposal and petition was the conversion of P506 to an express train, with a new local Framingham-originating train right behind it. That's what we wanted and that's what we got! Our hope is that this change moves some passengers from P508 to P506, thereby alleviating some of the overcrowding on P508. So if you are a P508 passenger, start thinking about what you can do to move to P506!

6) Addition of Ashland to P590: For the first time ever a local train will start in Ashland, rather than Framingham. There are a number of reasons we decided to do this: a) The outbound set of equipment used for this service can continue west to Ashland without needing to depart Boston substantially earlier. In other words, the equipment & personnel are available and it's possible.b) There are no conflicting train movements in the area which would preclude P590 making a 'turn' in Ashland. c) Ashland has the largest parking capacity on the line, and both lots never come close to being filled at any point during the day. d) A later morning inbound trip from Ashland could theoretically align with the addition of Ashland to the outbound evening "Heart to Hub" express train which is later in the evening (see below for details on PM schedule). In other words, perhaps some passengers will be able to take advantage of a slightly shifted workday schedule in Boston (~10 AM to ~7 PM?) by taking P590 in the morning and P552 (the Heart to Hub) in the evening. e) Adding Ashland to P590 should not impact the crowding on the train, since it has excess capacity. f) Adding Ashland to P590 does not impact riders from Framingham east since the added stop has not changed departure times from any other station for P590.

7) Renumbering of trains: The MBTA has renumbered the local trains (vs. the current schedule and the draft I published on 12/1/16). The elimination of using "P580" as a train number and starting with "P582" now means that the equipment turns have increasing numbers for each set of equipment. For example, on the current schedule, train P581 comes outbound from Boston and turns in Framingham to become P580. By skipping the number 580 on this new schedule, P581 will now come outbound from Boston and turn at Framingham to become P582, which is much more intuitive - all outbound trains will increment by one digit UP at Framingham for their inbound turn.

Evening Rush Hour Outbound Service:

8) Consolidation of P517 & P589: The current schedule includes express P517 & local P589. The proposed May 2017 schedule combines these trains into one full length local train (which would be called P517) departing South Station at 3:30 PM. Three reasons for this change:a) Ridership: The ridership for P589 is quite low. The ridership for P517 isn't terrible, but it still isn't incredibly high. b) Set utilization: By eliminating one set from the early rush hour 'rotation,' a set becomes available to serve as a spare for the rush hour commute. This increases the resiliancy of the equipment fleet for the entire rush hour service schedule. c) Track utilization: By eliminating one set from going to Framingham and coming back into Boston early in the evening commute, the tracks have less trains running across them, allowing for less congestion and better resiliancy.

9) Addition of Framingham & Ashland to Heart to Hub train: The PM Heart to Hub train departing South Station at 7:35 PM has excess capacity (OK, that's the politically correct way of saying it has low ridership). Adding Framingham and Ashland does not substantially increase the transit time of the trip to Worcester, and may draw additional ridership onto this train. Why Framingham and Ashland?a) Framingham has the highest ridership of any station on the line. Also, due to the signals, grade crossings, and physical characteristics of the line, trains already operate at reduced speed through Framingham, so adding the station stop is not eliminating a high speed segment of the trip. Finally, the construction of the new parking lot on the north side of the station will add over 200 parking spaces to the station area. b) Ashland (as noted in #6 above) has excess parking capacity. Also, matching it up with the AM P590 trip offers a possible 'alternative' workday schedule for some commuters / potential passengers for the Heart to Hub. Finally, a new Transit Oriented Development project near the Ashland station may result in increased ridership to/from Ashland station - some of whom could potentially utilize the evening Heart to Hub train.

10) Standardized headways: From 4:20 PM to 5:50 PM, the schedule now operates on a fixed 40 minute headway for each local train and each express train, with 10 minutes between an express and a local train. In other words, with the exception of West Natick and Framingham (which are serviced by both express and local trains), a train departs for each destination west of Boston every 40 minutes. For example, Worcester bound passengers can depart South Station at 4:20 PM, 5:00 PM, and 5:40 PM. Passengers bound for Natick Center (as an example) can depart South Station at 4:30 PM, 5:10 PM, and 5:50 PM.

These standardized headways are the best compromise between frequent service and the spacing of trains to avoid conflicts. As many of you are aware, the 25 minute spacing between the current 5:15 PM local (P593) and the 5:40 express (P523) is just too close - P523 frequently 'catches up' to P593 before Framingham. Increasing that spacing to 30 minutes (along with changing the equipment rotation) should solve that problem.

Many of you may recall the 20 minute headway between local trains on previous schedules - a 5:15 PM local departure from South Station was followed by a 5:35 PM local departure from South Station. As previously discussed on this blog, that was only possible with a 'leapfrog' move - the 5:30 PM express train went AROUND the 5:15 PM local train. While that was a nifty move, it was perilous for the schedule - if anything went wrong and there were any delays, the delays could rapidly become widespread and substantial. We just don't have good enough infrastructure to keep a leapfrog move on the schedule. A (quite long) third passing track is really needed to be able to reliably include a leapfrog move on our schedule.

We spent a fair amount of time exploring the options for evening headways and looking at the pros and cons of various options. The Worcester Working Group feels that the 40 minute headway system for the height of the rush hour is the most reliable schedule at the most frequent service interval possible. We spent time learning about the infrastructure constraints that if solved would allow for more frequent service. Hopefully there will be announcements in the near future about some infrastructure projects that will benefit us.

11) The 5:50 PM train no longer operates to Worcester: The current P525 departs South Station at 5:50 PM and operates all the way to Worcester. But P523 departs South Station at 5:40 PM and operates all the way to Worcester, so having the Ashland to Worcester stops on P525 is somewhat duplicative. Removing the Ashland to Worcester segment from P525 improves congestion at Worcester, which has been a problem in the ~7 PM to ~9 PM window on the current schedule. Service to stations from Ashland to Worcester is not substantially or realistically reduced.

12) Only minor changes to trains between 6 PM and 7 PM: The important factor for this later half of the evening rush hour is the constraint at Worcester: trains should arrive at Worcester no more frequently than every 30 minutes. This has been discussed on previous blog posts, and is the result of four factors:a) The dead end track at Worcester station (MBTA doesn't have permission to go west of the station);b) The single platform at Worcester station; c) The arrangement of interlockings on the approach into Worcester station; andd) The positioning of the layover yard EAST of Worcester station.

The current schedule includes a number of trains which arrive at Worcester less than 30 minutes after the preceding train. While that can sometimes work, it is only possible if everything happens precisely on time. Increasing the interval to 30 minutes for each arrival increases the resiliancy and reliability of the entire schedule.

So, how does this affect the 6 PM to 7 PM window of Boston departures? With the Heart to Hub arriving in Worcester at 8:45 PM, the latest arrival of the previous train is ~8:15 PM. This pushes it back to a 6:45 PM departure from South Station, which also squeezes the departure of the previous train between that and the 5:50 PM local. Taking a closer look at these timings, you can see that it is impossible to continue the 40 minute express / local pattern after 5:50 PM - everything would get jammed up and there would be a long interval of no service to particular stations. Therefore keeping the ~6 PM to ~7:30 PM Boston departures similar to what they are now offers reasonable service to the most stations.

The current 6:20 PM "limited" train departing South Station is moved earlier 5 minutes, but it can't become an express and skip the Wellesleys and Natick Center. If it did, then those stations would not have service for an entire hour between the 5:50 PM and 6:45 PM Boston departures.

13) Boston Landing: As with the morning commute, only local Framingham terminating trains will stop at Boston Landing. This does present a minor problem for Boston Landing passengers bound for destinations west of Framingham, since the express-local sequence at Framingham is not conducive to a transfer there (transfer times of ~20 minutes). There are a couple of solutions / mitigations for this issue:13a) Boston Landing passengers can get to P521: P521, the 5 PM South Station express to Worcester, is the most popular evening train. Although it doesn't stop at Boston Landing, those passengers can take INBOUND P520 from Boston Landing at 4:59 PM and get off at Yawkey at 5:04 PM. They can then board outbound P521 at Yawkey at 5:11 PM. 13b) Boston Landing added to P525: Without a similar inbound-outbound trick to reasonably access P523, the next train servicing stations west of Framingham is P525. A stop at Boston Landing has been added to that train since there is also no corresponding inbound-outbound trick for Boston Landing passengers to access P525. Boston Landing passengers can use P593 to Framingham and transfer to P523, but that requires a ~18 minute wait at Framingham.

14) Public Comment Process: The current conceptual plan for implementing the new schedule is:a) Worcester Line Working Group completes finalizing entire new weekday draft proposed schedule by Christmas (COMPLETE).b) Early January: MBTA formally publishes draft schedule and begins 6 week public comment period. Public Hearings will be held, although the venues and schedule haven't been worked out yet. c) Mid-February: End of 6 week public comment period.d) Mid-February to Mid-March: MBTA, Keolis, and Worcester Line Working Group reconvenes to review public comments & finalize new schedule.e) Mid-March to early April: Keolis builds final equipment & crew rotations for new schedule.f) Early April to mid-May: Crews choose new assignments (this always happens for 6-8 weeks prior to every new schedule being published in May or November). g) May 22, 2017: New schedule implemented. ALL OF THAT IS DRAFT AND SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISION

This is a pretty exciting example of activism and everyone coming together behind a petition with a government agency responding and making the requested change. Our voices did matter and we're on the way to a better schedule!

Even though we're not done, it's important to note that the Working Group included many people who all contributed and engaged very constructively. It has been a very collaborative process and I'm glad I got to be a part of it. Besides me, the Working Group includes Lt. Governor Karyn Polito, Rep. Alice Peisch (D - Wellesley), Rep. Carolyn Dykema (D - Southboro, Westboro), Rep. James O'Day (D - Worcester), Stuart Loosemore (Worcester Chamber of Commerce), Jessica Strunkin (495/Metrowest Partnership), Brian Shortsleeve (MBTA General Manager), Jody Ray (MBTA Assistant General Manager in charge of Commuter Rail Railroad Operations), two Deputy Directors of MBTA Railroad Operations, David Scorey (Keolis CEO/GM), the Keolis Manager of Operations Planning, and another general public member / commuter from Wellesley.

Stay tuned to this blog and I'll publish updates on the Public Comment process as soon as it is finalized. Subscribe to get e-mail updates when the blog is updated.

On the next day, Keolis publicized these changes with announcements on their web site. Handouts and posters soon appeared at the terminals. The Framingham-Worcester announcement is here.

So what's going on? Simply put, these are adjustments to the durations (transit times) of certain trains. It is admitting that the May 23 schedules were too aggressive and too optimistic about the durations of those trips.

The May 23 schedules were developed using computer modeling for the durations of the trips. Once the schedules were implemented, real world experience revealed that there were some flaws with the assumptions used in the model. I've heard that the flaws included:
1) Schedules assumed a generic 'dwell time' for how long a train needed to be in a station for loading or unloading. Unloading 200-300 passengers at Framingham on the busiest rush hour train takes more time than unloading 50 passengers at Wellesley Farms. But both stations were assigned the same amount of 'dwell time' - and it wasn't enough for the real world.
2) Schedules did not account for the "Delay in Block" (DIB) rule. This is a pretty technical issue, and you can read about what DIB is in the glossary. Suffice it to say that this rule means that trains approaching some signals are required to go slower than the speed limit would suggest they could operate at. The computer model used for simulating trip durations took into account acceleration and stopping times at station stops, but assumed that trains would operate at or near the speed limit for most of the rest of their journey.
3) Schedules did not account for the slow CP 4 switch at Boston Landing construction. There is a 30 mph speed limit adjacent to the construction zone, and that was accounted for in the model. But due to the way the switch on the west end of Boston Landing had to be built, it has an effective 15 mph limit for trains switching from track 2 to the single track (or from the single track to track 2). This is the move that most rush hour (both AM & PM) trains make. Most of you are familiar with this really slow spot.

The three issues above would presumably affect every rush hour train, and perhaps they do. It's possible that they chose to modify the schedules for the worst performing trains only - even if other trains are experiencing consistent ~2 minute delays.

Some important thoughts on these schedule changes:
1) The MBTA creates the schedules and Keolis implements them. Keolis might be consulted and have some input and advice, but the final implementation of any schedule is solely by the MBTA (even the 7/27 schedule adjustments). Minor point, but it is important to remember the client / contractor relationship between the MBTA and Keolis.

2) The 'customer facing' schedules (printed schedule flyers, PDF schedules on the internet, and schedule timetables within apps) will NOT be changing. This is probably because it would be too confusing and expensive to make this change for the minor changes being implemented. I was actually somewhat surprised that they even announced it to the public - they could have kept the change internal to employee timetables and not announced it. I'm glad they did announce it.

3) The announcement only includes the final cumulative time adjustment for the final destination. However, every station stop between departure and destination is actually changing - although that's not documented anywhere and the actual departure time at intermediate stations was probably not even calculated. But it's NOT like the delay is ONLY happening between the second to last stop and last stop. For example, train P523 has had 10 minutes added to it's arrival time in Worcester. This probably means that the arrival time in Framingham will be about 5 minutes later than the 5/23 schedule, with the 'delay' building from 5 to 10 minutes between Framingham and Worcester. Or maybe Framingham is only 2 minutes later and the 8 additional minutes accumulate from Framingham to Worcester.

4) Most of the train durations on the 5/23 schedules were shorter than previous schedules. So the 5/23 schedule was predicting / planning for better performance vs. the old schedules. The changes implemented on 7/27 essentially negate those optimistic predictions / plans for the trains involved. I created this table to illustrate this point (click on the image for a larger version with the backup data included):
​

Notice that the morning train durations were all reduced. The only trip that didn't get a faster duration was P582/P504 which added West Natick as a station stop - but that only cost 1 extra minute of duration. There were no adjustments made to these durations at the 7/27 adjustment announcement, so they must be doing OK.

The afternoon commute is a different and more complicated story. The new P519 train gained one additional stop when compared to the closest 'old' express train (P523). But it operates 20 minutes later (attracting more passengers) and was predicted to operate 2 minutes faster even with those two factors which should have resulted in longer durations! The schedule adjustment for P519 adds 7 minutes vs. the 5/23 schedule but only 5 minutes when compared with pre-5/23 schedules.

The new P521 (5 PM express) was predicted to operate 5 minutes faster on the 5/23 schedule. Those 5 minutes have been 'taken away' and the revised schedule is now 2 minutes longer than the pre-5/23 schedule (no change in number of station stops).

The new P523 (~5:40 PM express) has been a source of much complaining. On the old schedule, this train leapfrogged past the local. The new schedule eliminates this leapfrog move - and now there isn't enough time between the preceeding local (P593) and P523. The addition of 10 minutes to the revised duration is probably meant to account for these issues.

So, with the exception of P523, when you compare the 7/27 revisions to the pre-5/23 schedule, the differences are not that much. In fact, the only train (except P523) that runs more than a few minutes longer than the pre-5/23 schedule is P519 - and that train has one additional station stop.

Finally, there are two factors affecting current trip durations which require mentioning: equipment shortages (and problems) and crew staffing. There is a serious shortage of coaches at the present time. Apparently this is due to a combination of routine maintenance and inspection backlogs along with equipment problems. Shorter trains lead to extended dwell times since more passengers have to squeeze through less doors - or even worse, extended dwell times due to overcrowding and slow loading / unloading as a result. Crew shortages lead to the same problem - not enough doors open = longer dwell times to unload passengers. The crew shortage should be mitigated with a new graduating class of assistant conductors that are scheduled to start in mid-August.

The en-route or 'real-time' equipment failures don't seem to be any more or less severe than summers past (other than the lack of large enough sets due to the out-of-service coaches). But that's just my very unscientific assessment for our line. [Equipment failures on the North side have been epic over the last few weeks.] But it must be mentioned that any equipment failure results in delays that can easily cascade into the PM rush hour - especially the peak 5 PM to 6 PM timeframe.

Permanent schedule changes are ideally aligned with the 6 month period that train crew staffing assignments last. The train crews are allowed to 'bid' on jobs based on seniority - and this bid process happens every six months. More than minor changes to the schedules would require reworking the crew schedules and re-bidding the jobs, which is a time consuming and difficult process. Therefore, there will be two upcoming schedule changes that will result in completely new 'customer facing' schedules - both aligned with the crew staffing assignment 6-month period:

October or November 2016: Expect minor tweaks that will memorialize the 7/27 schedule adjustments. We will also probably see somewhat more than a minor tweak for the 5 PM to 6 PM outbound departing trains to try and fix the conflicts with P593 and P523. Don't expect to see the #HeartToHub train removed from this schedule...but I'll be posting a separate blog post about that soon.

May 2017: Based on construction schedules, the Boston Landing station will not be ready in time for the November schedule change. The actual station construction may be complete, but associated track work may lag into the winter. Therefore, expect Boston Landing station stops to be added to the schedule in May 2017.

Two other items I'll mention here for those of you smart enough to read this whole blog post:

Track 2 tie replacement: Scheduled to start around the third week of September. Will start at CP 4 (near Boston Landing) and progress west from there. I don't know the duration, but expect 2-3 months. And yes, that will mean similar delays to what we saw this spring with the track 1 tie replacement.

P513 / P520: Astute readers of the 5/23 schedule will notice these two trains don't exist - those numbers are skipped. Those trains are actually planned to exist - and you can see where they will fit in the schedule. They have been left off the schedule due to the rail destressing and tie replacement projects. Once those projects are entirely complete, that train pair (which is one set of equipment that goes outbound and then inbound) will be put back on the schedule. Not sure if it will happen in November 2016 or May 2017.

Lots happening out on the Framingham-Worcester line! I'll blog more about the ongoing construction and the new schedule in a separate post, but for now, let's recap the inaugural run of the "Heart to Hub" 'bullet' train. I won't repeat my objections or concerns here - those are well documented in my previous blog posts.

I did go out to Worcester to see the inaugural event and participate in the "First Ride." There was plenty of media reporting about the trip...

Mass Live article here
​
Official reports indicate that the first inbound "Heart to Hub" carried about 300 passengers. I walked through the entire train and although there was a large contingent of media, politicians, WPI students, and "Action Worcester" participants, the majority of passengers appeared to be 'normal' commuters and/or 'normal' single trip riders (i.e. not daily commuters) - some who clearly had no idea the train would be the subject of a massive PR blitz!

Based on rider observations, ridership for subsequent "Heart to Hub" runs was:

1. The speeches at both ends were predictably boosterish. Nothing groundbreaking or particularly noteworthy from my perspective. Appropriate thanks given to relevant players and the Lt. Governor held a very respectful moment of silence for the recently murdered Auburn police officer.

2. "Jake" the Worcester Braveheart lion, "Charlie" the MBTA mascot, and the oversized custom Charlie Ticket presented to the Lt. Governor were all proof that the event was the biggest political event in Massachusetts since the signing of the Mayflower Compact or the 2004 Red Sox World Series victory.
​

Yours truly, "Twitter Dave," getting my photo with the mascots. It was actually pretty entertaining. Thanks to my Keolis friends for taking the photos...I'm sure when @MBTA_CR retweeted my photo with Jake, most subscribers to that Twitter feed were wondering "who the heck is this guy and why is he posing with a Lion?"

3. The festive atmosphere aboard the train near the gaggle of politicians was pleasantly contagious and genuinely amusing. Although it was funny that all the politicians piled into the quiet car which the conductor sheepishly announced while everyone was boarding, but then probably quickly decided really didn't need to be enforced. One of the Worcester politicians was celebrating his birthday...I wasn't quick enough with my phone camera to record the Lt. Governor leading the quiet car coach in singing "Happy Birthday" to him. It was hard to be cynical about the mood, but maybe that's just because I don't spend too much time in these type of situations. I did remind myself a couple of times that it was only a train...

4. I spoke with all of the politicians on the train and they were all very pleasant and approachable. Some of them seemed a little surprised when I vocalized my concern about the "Heart to Hub" service, but we had some good discussions. As always, the MBTA and Keolis senior staff aboard the train were very engaging and tolerant of my technical questions and observations. It was fun hanging out with them and my various media friends.

5. The equipment for the bullet train starts the day as inbound P500 from the layover yard at Worcester. As soon as it arrives in Boston, it immediately turns and runs outbound as a non-revenue deadhead express to Worcester. This outbound leg isn't used as a revenue service train because of the quick turn time in Boston. For the inaugural run, the set was loco 2037 with five flats (control coach 1522). Testing continues on a possible 3 coach set for this run. Initial tests indicate that the braking characteristics of a three coach train set are acceptable, but further testing is needed to verify that the block signal system (especially on the Fairmount branch) can accommodate a short train (a short train might not be long enough to close the track circuit to indicate that the block is occupied). So don't be surprised to see a four coach set and perhaps a three coach set eventually. Especially if ridership stays as low as noted after the inaugural run...

6. I documented our arrival time at Yawkey as 4 minutes late. The delay between Worcester and Yawkey appeared to be in Framingham - we went through at much slower than the authorized track speed. Rumors were that there was an issue at the Bishop Street grade crossing, but I'm not sure about that. I was disappointed to see some politicians suggest that our late arrival at South Station was due to a longer dwell time at Yawkey due to folks taking pictures. The station stop at Yawkey did seem a little longer than necessary, but since we arrived at Yawkey late the overall delay for the trip was not there.

I'm really glad I took the time to go out and participate. It was an enjoyable morning and a great opportunity to get a glimpse at a full blown political event / operation. I doubt the service will be successful enough to justify (at least to me) its existence, but I don't want it to fail. Some people will definitely benefit from it. We'll see...keep those ridership reports coming. ​

Ugh! Too much to blog about and too little time! I have been wanting to write and post this for a while, but it turns out the delay worked out OK, since now I'm able to incorporate some more recent comments and articles about the bullet train.

The final version of the May 23, 2016 schedule was published on April 14, 2016. Official announcement page is here, with links to the new schedules. The reason it says "for informational purposes only" at the bottom of the new schedules is that those tables are not the official schedule format that will be published and made available shortly. But those are the final schedules - don't get worried that they're thinking of changing anything.

First and foremost, let's acknowledge the success of the public comment and public meeting process. They solicited input and made changes to the draft schedules according to the feedback they got. Probably not perfect for everyone, but from my perspective, they did a good job under the constraints (logistical and political) that they were operating under. A pretty good example of a government agency working well, in my humble opinion. Remember - the schedules were entirely developed and driven by the MBTA - NOT Keolis. MBTA sets the schedules, Keolis implements them. And I'm not just kissing up to the MBTA folks reading this blog, for all you folks that think I'm just a shill.

So what do I think? You can read all of my previous posts on the new schedule with this handy "new schedule" category link. But I'll consolidate my thoughts here - and add some new thoughts - just to make this post ridiculously long, like so many of my posts.

1. Bullet Train: Oops, sorry, it's the "Heart To Hub."

I've previously discussed my disdain for this service, but I'll summarize my opposition below. I'm well aware that there are passengers who will benefit from this train and are excited to see it added to the schedule. I mean them no ill will. I'm looking at it from the perspective of ALL the riders at ALL the stations (and the bullet doesn't really affect me, since I commute from Framingham, which has plenty of good service).

a) Reduces service for stations from Grafton to Ashland. They go from seven morning rush inbound trips to six. In the afternoon rush outbound, the trips increase from six to seven, but this also includes the expansion of the definition of rush hour to include the new 3:30 PM South Station departure. But more important is the concept that if the "bullet" equipment were re-purposed to include Grafton to Ashland the service would be more equitable for all 'distant' stations (beyond Framingham). Service could be much more evenly distributed in the morning and an express train (serving all 'usual' express stops) could be added in the evening after 6 PM, which many people have asked for. See my "How would I fix..." write-ups on this blog post for more details of how I would re-use the bullet equipment.

b) Requires track to be 'clear' while bullet moves through. They have somewhat mitigated this problem in the morning with train P510 making the Wellesley stops (see below) but there is still a huge gap in service for the Grafton to Ashland stations from about 7:50 AM to 9:00 AM. The evening bullet train really doesn't push any service out of the way since the evening bullet is so far outside rush hour.

c) Minimal incremental benefit for big cost. Transit time for the bullet train is 1 hour 2 minutes in the AM and 1 hour 5 minutes in the AM (end to end). For the 'regular' express trains, transit time is about 1 hour 20 minutes. The benefit of the 'bullet' is 15 to 18 minutes but the cost is the issues highlighted above. Not a fair trade-off in my opinion.

d) The actual times that the bullet operates are odd. Understanding that these may be targeted towards the 'millennial' passenger with flex time and a shifted work schedule (later), it still seems odd to me. However, with only two tracks and limited crossovers on the mainline, there is no way to insert the bullet train into the schedule at a more useful time for the majority of Worcester passengers. So while the times are odd, I understand why they have placed them where they are.

New thoughts:

e) We now have much more strong evidence that this train is a political invention. In a very insightful article, Gintautas Dumcius of MassLive.com reveals that the Worcester Chamber of Commerce (led by former Lt. Governor Tim Murray of Worcester) has been very active in the 'bullet' train discussions. And I am guessing that there was some involvement by current Lt. Governor Karyn Polito (a resident of Shrewsbury) given her involvement in rolling out the announcements of the bullet train. The statement from Secretary Pollack (from Newton - does everyone live on our line?) telling "them" that the train would run for a year and then be reevaluated certainly sounds like a response to a politically driven issue.

Other names from Twitter: "Politician's Express," "BS Express," "Dump to Hub," "Wormtown to Beantown," "Gut to Heart," "Ghost Train" (as in no passengers), "Clogged Artery & Broken Heart," "Pandering Limited," "Polito Special," "Polito to Pollack," "Murray Consolation Prize," "Catering to Millennials Special," "Heart Bypass," "Rosie Ruiz Extreme."
Think of more and tweet them to me or put them in the comments below! It might not be our favorite train but at least we can have fun with the names...

h) This train has gotten more advertisement and press coverage than most recent candidates for political office. If I start seeing TV commercials for it, then I'll really be impressed. However, in a stunning example of tone deafness, posters advertising the "Heart to Hub" train have been spotted at stations BETWEEN Worcester and Boston. Why? What could that possibly do except aggravate customers who cannot possibly benefit from it and will probably suffer because of it?

i) Up until now, the MBTA has implemented a safety rule that trains must have at least four coaches in the consist. The conventional wisdom has been that with less than four coaches, the train does not have enough brake pad surface area / braking power for full speed operation. So a train with less than four coaches is restricted to slower speeds. In the late winter / early spring, there were plans to test 3 coach consists with the intent that the new bullet train would only have 3 coaches. I haven't heard an update - but I can't see the bullet train having more than 4 coaches. It's also possible that they keep 4 coaches in the consist so that the set can be used more interchangeably for other trains regardless of the outcome of the testing of shorter trains.

j) Funny thing - back in 1950, there were four round trips (or as the MBTA would call it, 8 trips) between Worcester and South Station with a total transit time of 57 minutes. And they stopped in Framingham AND Newtonville AND Back Bay ("Huntington Ave")! Hat tip to Ari Ofsevit and Otto Vondrak.

k) There is a press conference with the Lt. Governor planned for the inauguration of the bullet train on the morning of May 23rd. I'll be there to stand up for my 1st amendment right to call it the 'bullet' train. And I won't be shy about telling the Lt. Governor what I think (politely, of course). Maybe she reads my blog and will already know?

Enough about the bullet train, let's move on...

​2. Natick Center

Natick Center loses peak inbound express service from P508. I have no problem with this move - their transit time on a local train is only around 45 minutes, while passengers west of Framingham have at least that much transit time on an express train. As I've explained in prior posts, there has to be an inflection point for local vs. express service, and West Natick seems to be a fair place for this inflection.

Additionally, I think this change may be to try to alleviate some of the passenger load from P508. According to recent passenger counts, P508 has the highest ridership of any train on the entire MBTA Commuter Rail system (1423 passengers). It already uses the largest train set (8 doubles) in use on the system and it isn't clear if 9 car consists can or will be implemented. Taking some passengers off of P508 gives some breathing room for future natural passenger growth from outlying stations. Obviously it would be better if West Natick had much more parking in order to absorb the displaced Natick Center P508 refugees, but that would also not shift Natick area passengers away from P508.

3. Restoration of West Natick service to express trains

This is the best example of the MBTA being responsive to the comments (and an on-line petition) generated during the public comment period. It looks like West Natick passengers got more than they asked for with inclusion on all express trains (P504, P508, and P521 didn't stop at West Natick on the original draft schedule - now they do).

4. Wellesley gets service between 8 and 9 AM

The original draft schedule had P510 skipping all three Wellesley stations. The final schedule has those stops restored. Fills a need for those passengers, and only costs an extra 8 minutes on the transit time. I'm neutral on this change, but it was responsive to a number of comments submitted to the MBTA.

5. Newton continues to be difficult

With platforms on track 2 only, it is difficult to provide appropriate or useful reverse commute service to the Newton stations. There just isn't a good solution with the infrastructure we have.

Finally, I will work on an updated Turn Table for the new schedule and see if I can get it confirmed by the MBTA. Hopefully I'll be able to publish it next week.

Details surrounding the new schedules have trickled out over the past few weeks. I've shared some on Twitter, but here's a compiled list of the facts I have gathered.

1. Keolis confirmed in recent tweets and a post on Reddit that the schedule changes will be implemented on May 23. I had heard rumors that they might be delayed, but the recent statements seem very definitive. Quote from Keolis on Reddit:

"The schedules will be effective May 23rd. The final schedules are expected to be released by mid-April online and will be displayed in the three Boston stations. They’re being rolled out online first to make sure that the information goes out to the public as quickly as possible so everyone can plan their commutes. The familiar paper schedules will be printed and available to customers in stations one week before the schedules are set to become effective. The Commuter Rail schedule has not experienced a level of change like this before so we recognize we have a big job ahead of us to disseminate this information to our customers. Signage will need to be swapped out at nearly 140 stations. GTFS on the various mobile apps must be updated. This will be an all hands on deck effort, and we will do our best to limit any hiccups as passengers and crews adjust to new schedules together. - RC"

And from Twitter:​

@therealybbor Hi Rob. Yes, the new schedules will go into effect on May 23rd.

"The 'bullet' train which will run express from Worcester to Yawkey is definitely incorporated in the May 23rd schedule change. - RM"

​3. ​All peak service trains will stop at West Natick. This addresses the one issue that I heard the most about from all of you - the removal of the West Natick stop from the outbound 5 PM express train. Clearly that is restored on the final version of the new schedule, but it also appears that the West Natick stop is restored to the popular ~7:45 AM inbound P508 train. This tidbit is from a presentation made to the FMCB (Financial Management and Control Board) on March 16. The presentation highlighted the results of the feedback sessions from the winter. Here is the relevant page from that presentation:
​

Here is the previously published draft schedule, for reference (so you can see what they're talking about with regards to West Natick expresses and P510):

Given the tone and content of the "Worcester Line" page from the FMCB presentation, I doubt that there will be many other major changes to the draft schedule. But we'll find out in about a week (hopefully!).

On Monday February 1, 2016, MBTA and massDOT held the Worcester version of the continuing public hearings regarding the potential fare increases and the proposed new commuter rail schedules. The MBTA tweeted out a picture of the hearing, and my bald spot made a cameo appearance:

There I am (all the way to the left)! Not quite a flattering picture of my bald spot, but I'm not alone... https://t.co/39U7tM4259

Cyrus Moulton at the Worcester Telegram & Gazette does a much better job than this blog with his concise article about the meeting. I think he accurately captured the mood of the meeting (and not just because he quoted me!).

If you really want my long winded observations and thoughts, click on the read more:

<edited 2/12/16 to note the extension of the comment period to 2/22/2016>

It seems like we've been talking about this for months now...because we have. To recap:

Back in October, MassDOT held a press conference to announce a new express service direct from Worcester to Boston. At that press conference, they also leaked the entire new draft schedule. My blog post about that is here, and the draft schedule published in October is here.

That schedule was supposed to be implemented in November. However, they decided to roll out the revised North side schedules first, with an effective date of December 14. After a mountain of pushback and criticism, those schedules were withdrawn and taken back for 'tweaking.' Which brings us to where we are now: new schedules for all the lines (except the Old Colony lines), with a planned implementation date of May 23, 2016.

The official Framingham-Worcester draft schedule is linked from this page. However, I think the official version is really illegible. So I copied all the times onto a more legible format and that version is here.

Before we get to my comments on the draft Framingham-Worcester schedule, there are three topics to discuss.

Due to a snowstorm on Monday 2/8/2016, two public meetings were rescheduled to 2/22/2016. Therefore the MBTA decided to extend the public comment period for the Commuter Rail schedule changes to 2/22/2016. The end of the public comment period for the fare changes was kept at 2/12/2016. The original notice is here, but it was replaced with a changed version here detailing the public comment period changes.

1) How do YOU get your comments to the MBTA on the proposed schedule changes? a) Visit a kiosk at Back Bay or South Station. See this flyer for details, but the schedule is:Back Bay: Tuesday January 19, 5 PM to 7 PM.South Station: Wednesday January 20, 5 PM to 7 PM.

b) Go to one of the public meetings. See this flyer for details, but there are two meetings which are probably most convienient for Framingham-Worcester line passengers:Worcester Union Station: Monday, February 1, 6:30 PM to 8:30 PMWalnut Hill School, 12 Highland Street, Natick: Wednesday February 3, 6:00 PM to 8:00 PMTwitter user Claire created a map of all the meetings here. (See my comments way below about these meetings.)

OK, onto my thoughts on the new schedule....followed by my random complaints about the process after that.

First here is the new schedule (Click on it for a legible PDF):

Thoughts:

1) Logical naming patternAs I noted in my blog post about the October draft, I'm a serious geek, and I got excited that there is now a better pattern to the naming convention for the trains:500 to 538 (even numbers) = Worcester to Boston580 to 592 (even numbers) = Framingham to Boston501 to 539 (odd numbers) = Boston to Worcester581 to 589 (odd numbers) = Boston to Framingham5001 & 5002 = Bullet trains. That's it, that's my only comment. Good job MBTA! Just kidding....

2) No leapfrogsThis schedule carries the concept that I first noticed in the October draft schedule: there are no 'leapfrog' moves any more. All the trains arrive in Boston, Framingham, or Worcester in the same order they depart. This is a pretty nifty change, and maximizes the two tracks we have. While the leapfrog trains were a cool way to get express trains over the line, they are very disruptive to the process of moving trains inbound and outbound at the same time, especially given the limited number of crossover switches available to move trains from one track to another. This will potentially help mitigate cascading problems from delayed trains, and allow for some operational flexibility to implement leapfrogs 'on the fly' to deal with problems.

3) Wellesley Square loses express service from October draftThe odd "limited" (semi-express) service to Wellesley Square that was present in the October draft schedule has been removed. I complained about this in my blog post about the October draft. Wellesley Square is much to close to Boston to get any express service when passengers west of Framingham have a much longer commute. Each station stop costs time, and that time should be shared amongst all passengers. More in the "headway" section below.

4) Natick Center and West Natick have changes to express serviceNatick Center and West Natick passengers lose some express trains as compared to the current schedule, but not as much as was proposed on the October draft schedule. Details:Inbound:Current schedule: P508 stops at West Natick and Natick Center at 7:50 AM and 7:55 AM respectively. New schedule: P510 (new express) stops at West Natick and Natick Center at 8:16 AM and 8:21 AM respectively. No loss of service, but the shift to 25 minutes later will probably not satisfy those customers. The October draft schedule had eliminated the inbound Natick Center express completely. Outbound:Current schedule: P527 stops at West Natick at 5:34 PM. The new express train at a similar departure time skips West Natick. The October draft had ADDED 'express' service to Wellesley Square and Natick Center for the ~5 PM South Station outbound departure. See #3 above.

5) Framingham benefits from all of the trains (except the bullet train), as it always has and always will. There is a serendipitous confluence of factors that make Framingham the center of our universe:a) configuration of switches makes it the only practical place to have a mid-point termimal on the lineb) second highest ridership (after Worcester) c) freight yard / sidings just to the west of the station offers places for trains to be 'stored' between trips (or overnight)d) presence of freight yard and Concord Street crossing requires all trains to travel slow through the area. So skipping Framingham with an express train is of minimal incremental benefit, since trains have to go slow there anyway. e) it's my stop. ;)

6) The "bullet" train is almost useless.The new Worcester to Boston uninterrupted express train was nicknamed the "bullet" train at the October press conference. The inbound leg departs Worcester at 7:55 AM and arrives at South Station at 8:57 AM. Allowing 5-15 minutes to walk to your office after the train arrives means that this train won't get most workers to their office until after 9 AM. My guess is this is too late for the majority of employees. I'm sure there are some people who can benefit from this train, but the time appears to be too late.And the outbound leg departing South Station at 7:35 PM and arriving in Worcester at 8:42 PM is outside of anyone's rush hour definition. Again, somebody will find this useful, but I'll bet half the people on it will mistake it for the next train which is a local and end up unhappily in Worcester. This outbound leg is a waste of valuable equipment, especially when there are no express trains after 5:40 PM. I would guess that more passengers would be happier with an express train servicing Framingham to Worcester and departing somewhere between 6:00 and 6:20 PM.This "bullet" concept appears to be a public relations / politically driven idea, so that they can claim Worcester to Boston service in under one hour. Doesn't matter that the vast majority of passengers will not be well served by it. Not only does it use up a valuable set of equipment, but it also means that the tracks need to be clear before it can start its long run. This means a forced long gap in service for intermediate stations. Bad idea. Make it go away and forget about silly sound bites for political campaign speeches (anybody want to guess the chances of that happening?). In addition, the "bullet" train only saves 10 minutes vs. an express train that goes express from Framingham to Worcester. So skipping 4 stops (and all those passengers) is not worth it in my analysis, especially considering the issues above. To properly implement a 'bullet' train in the middle of the peak rush hour that could add value to the Worcester passengers, there would need to be a third track for a majority of the line. There actually is room at many places along the line for a third track - most of the line was actually four tracks wide a long, long time ago. But we'll never see three tracks in my lifetime.

7) Expanding the definition of Rush Hour allows them to claim more Rush Hour service. I didn't fully understand this when I analyzed the October draft schedule, and I made a passing remark about it in that blog post. This issue is kind of nit-picky on my part, and I don't think it is a big deal, but we'll have to see how they spin this at the meetings.

Previously, the definition of rush hour has been somewhat inconsistent, so the idea of standardizing it is a good idea. If they don't make a big deal about the added number of trains in the "peak" then this criticism should go away. But if you hear them talking about the number of trains, take a look at the schedules and compare for yourself.

The prior definition of the inbound "peak" was from the start of service until somewhere around 9 AM. Now, the "peak" box is defined as the start of service through and including all trains which arrive in Boston prior to 10 AM. This doesn't change anything for the Framingham-Worcester, but on the Providence line, one existing train moves into the "peak" period with this change in definition.

On the outbound side, "peak" service includes all trains departing Boston between 3:30 PM and 7:00 PM. This is a much bigger window than the current 4:00 PM to 6:30 PM definition. Again, no effect for us on the Framingham-Worcester line, but applying this rule to the current Providence schedule adds two "peak" trains without changing the schedule at all.

Unfortunately, redefining the outbound evening "peak" period to be earlier seems to have shifted the express trains to earlier in the rush hour period, meaning that the express trains END earlier in the rush hour period. For some reason, the schedulers are favoring the earlier side of the rush hour for express trains (in my opinion). The P523 5:40 PM South Station departure is now the last express train (and yes, I'm ignoring the silly later bullet train). A number of years ago, there was a 6:15 PM express departure from South Station that many people found convenient and many people still mention missing in the current schedule. More on this below in the 'headway' comment section.

8) Correction of lack of 8 AM - 9 AM service (somewhat)One of the biggest complaints we heard about the October draft schedule was the lack of inbound departures for a two-hour window in the 8 AM to 9 AM window. Some of that lack of service was due to needing to keep the track clear for the inbound 'bullet' train - you can't have the track occupied by a local with the bullet screaming through from behind. This new draft somewhat corrects that problem, but it shuffles trains around in the earlier slots with some negative effects (more in the headway comments below).

9) Newton changes remain from December 2015 schedule, and inbound evening service is expanded.See items #1 and #2 on this blog post. The Newtons get outbound AM service around 5:20 AM (new on new schedule), but then no outbound service until after 10 AM. This is an unfortunate but good concept that keeps track 2 clear for inbound trains. In the evening, the new schedule includes inbound service at the Newtons at ~7:30 PM and ~9:10 PM (and other later times), which differs from the current schedule which had no inbound service for those stations between 4:15 PM and midnight.

10) Headways and transit timesOk, here it is. This is the heart of my analysis. First, my viewpoint: Obviously everyone wants express service to/from their station at the time that is most convenient for them. And obviously that isn't possible. So for me, it's about balance and fairness. What's my definition of fairness?1) Frequency of service - a train to each destination every 30-40 minutes seems to be a fair metric for rush hour. That's an arbitrary metric, but it also seems to be achievable with the service we've had on this line. 2) Are the durations (transit times) distributed fairly - i.e. is there balance between express trains to distant stations and local service to closer stations. 3) Are departure and arrival times 'reasonable?' For example, having no inbound service for anyone in the ~8 AM to ~9 AM period in the October draft schedule is NOT fair by this metric.

So, my criteria doesn't address:1) Shifts in specific departure and arrival times that might be beneficial for some and detrimental for others. For example, if you have a hard deadline (e.g. day care), then even a minor change that meets my 'fairness' criteria may be a nightmare for you. 2) Distributing train service by ridership values. Some would advocate for 'better' service at stations with higher ridership. I don't think that is needed or appropriate for our line. Just my opinion.

So, for my analysis, I will focus on two issues: Headway and transit times. "Headway" is a term used to describe the separation of departure times, usually for subway lines. Since our trains are a mix of local and express, I'm not looking precisely at the "headway" of all the trains on the line, but rather the "headways" of trains leaving for a particular destination. Transit time is just the amount of time from departure to arrival at a particular station.

All of my analysis assumes "Boston" means "South Station," just for ease of analysis.

For transit times, the baseline is easy. A local train making all stops takes about 1 hour and 28 minutes to travel between Worcester and Boston (and about 50 minutes between Boston and Framingham). The closest suburban stations to Boston (the three "Newtons") are only about 20-25 minutes from Boston. So all riders have a minimum transit time of 20 minutes and a maximum of 1 hour 28 minutes.

An express train that goes express from Framingham to Boston (no Natick, Wellesley, or Newton stops) results in transit times of about 32 minutes to/from Framingham and 1 hour and 10 minutes to Worcester (I'm ignoring the bullet train since I don't think it is fair use of equipment).

So, from a fairness perspective, I think that most (if not all) rush hour service to stations west of West Natick (and including West Natick) should be via express trains which bypass all stations east of West Natick. Therefore, all stations east of West Natick would only be served by 'local' trains. What does this mean?

Passengers west of West Natick will have transit times of ~31 min (West Natick) to 1 hour 10 min (Worcester).Passengers east of West Natick will have transit times of ~20 min (Newtons) to 41 min (Natick Center).

Placing the cut-off at Framingham would be the only other logical choice - and that puts West Natick passengers at the end of a 46 minute transit 'local' service. I would completely accept the argument to put West Natick in the local service - 46 minutes is still a reasonable duration for a train ride on this line. It also should be noted that it is not possible to terminate local trains in West Natick. Due to the configuration of switches and signals, all the local trains have to terminate in Framingham. So keeping West Natick on 'local only' service might make sense since all the local trains will be stopping there anyway.

I won't accept the argument that Natick Center needs express service. The duration of a local trip from Natick Center at 41 minutes seems reasonable to me - and stopping an express train at Natick Center to provide a 27 min express trip does not seem reasonable to me.

One of the issues I have is that the choice of where to have express service and where to have only local service should be consistent. Although it might be 'nice' to offer express service to Natick Center sometimes, it doesn't make sense (at least to me) to only have one express train stopping there during the rush hour. Simiilarily, it doesn't make sense to me that one or two express trains would skip West Natick (if you accept my idea that West Natick is all express service).

With my 'transit time' concept in mind, we can take a look at the other two fairness criteria, starting with the AM commute. (I won't be evaluating the reverse commute, mid-day service, or late evening service, primarily because all of those look pretty reasonable to me, even without a detailed analysis).

INBOUND

Note that my analysis essentially ignores 'interzone' passengers - and not because I don't like them, but because with the draft schedule as published, interzone passengers are provided with plenty of options to get off an express train and switch to a local at Framingham (if needed) with a minimal wait. So they are serviced adequately at all times.

The first train (P500) is so early that I'm not even sure it qualifies as rush hour service, even though that's how the MBTA classifies it. Having it as a full length local seems reasonable.

For the stations between Worcester and Ashland (inclusive), express service is provided on five of the six departures after 5:15 AM. The service is regular, with a train every 30-40 minutes. However, the big problem is the conversion of P506 from an express (as previously proposed on the October draft schedule) to a local on this draft schedule. This appears to be caused by reassignment of one set from before the bullet (on the October schedule) to after the bullet (on this draft schedule). P506 now becomes an oddity and a problem for passengers between Worcester and Ashland. First, for these passengers, there are no opportunities to arrive in Boston between 7 AM and 8 AM. The only options are P504 (departing around 6 AM to 6:25 AM, depending on your stop), which arrives in Boston at 7:07 AM, or train P506, departing around 6:30 AM to 7:00 AM, and arriving at 8:03 AM. But the usefulness of P506 is limited, because if Worcester to Ashland passengers wait and leave 30 minutes later and take P508, they can arrive in Boston only 9 minutes later at 8:12 AM.

The other way to look at this is from the perspective of 'arrival headways.' For passengers boarding between Worcester and Ashland, their arrival time options at South Station are:6:17 AM6:32 AM (15 min later)7:07 AM (35 min later)8:03 AM (54 min later)8:12 AM (9 min later)8:49 AM (37 min later)8:57 AM (8 min later - this is the bullet, so only Worcester passengers eligible for this arrival). Clearly this is not an even distribution of arrival times.

The current arrival options for passengers boarding between Worcester and Ashland are:6:24 AM6:48 AM (24 min later)7:20 AM (32 min later)7:27 AM (7 min later)8:14 AM (47 min later)8:28 AM (14 min later)9:08 AM (40 min later)As you can see, both schedules have 7 trains with arrival times in the same general window (6:15 AM to 9:00 AM). The differences are:1) The bullet train is only an option for Worcester passengers. Grafton to Ashland customers actually lose one train with the new schedule. 2) The new schedule has five express trains, including the bullet, while the old schedule has only three. 3) The lack of an arrival in the long gap from 7:07 AM to 8:03 AM on the new schedule is probably going to get complaints, and rightfully so. 4) The close arrival times of P506 (a local) and P508 (an express) is a less than ideal scenario.

Finally, we can break this down by guessing where current passengers will go (again, focusing on the Worcester to Ashland passengers):Current passengers of P500 have no changeCurrent passengers of P502 have only a minimal change.Current passengers of P504 will probably take advantage of the new P504 expressCurrent passengers of P582 will probably switch to the new P504 expressCurrent passengers of P506 and P508 have minimal changesCurrent passengers of P512 can switch to the new P510 express with minimal changesAnd the bullet train is just dumb, but does fill a large gap on the current schedule, so I have to give it that.

This last analysis is interesting - passengers between Worcester and Ashland don't have many changes...but I think it means they're just continuing to endure a somewhat less than ideal schedule.

​What about passengers between Framingham and Worcester?

First, if I ever hear a Framingham passenger complain, I'll kick them in the shins and tell them to shutup. The inbound options from Framingham to Boston are 10 trains between 5:26 AM and 8:40 AM, with the longest wait about 30 minutes, even with the silly bullet train blowing by at the breathtaking track speed limit of 30 mph through the Framingham station. This is second to only the Route 128 station on the Providence line for the most train options of any commuter rail station anywhere on the MBTA Commuter Rail system.

The passengers at West Natick and Natick Center are special cases, since they have had some express service in the past. The new schedule has somewhat irregular service for them, with 'headway' gaps of between 10 minutes to a maximum of 41 minutes. There isn't much change for West Natick and Natick passengers before ~7:50 AM - those passengers might have changes of ~10 minutes or so to their current schedules, but they should be able to find similar service on the new schedule.

The big change for them is that they lose the P508 express, which is heavily used by West Natick and Natick Center passengers. That is replaced (somewhat), with the new P584 local, but that arrives at South Station at 8:42 AM vs. the current P508 arriving at 8:28 AM. In addition, the West Natick and Natick Center passengers can use new P510 express, which boards ~20 min later than the current P508 / new P584, but arrives at South Station at 8:49 AM (only 7 min after P584). I expect this loss of the P508 express at West Natick and Natick Center to be a point of contention for those passengers. As stated above, I don't think Natick Center should get any express service, but it's hard to take it away after they have had it for so many years.

Removing the P508 stops from West Natick and Natick Center appears to me to be a load distribution issue - the current P508 uses the largest set on the system (8 doubles), and it is usually completely packed. Moving the West Natick and Natick Center passengers off that train is almost a necessity at this point.

And finally, we can take a look at our friends boarding at the three Wellesley stations and the three Newton stations. Pretty easy analysis - no reason for them to get express service, and none is proposed (or on the current schedule). Headways are fair with most gaps at 40 minutes and one gap at 25 minutes. Six trains provide service between 5:41 AM and 8:54 AM. Comparing the old schedule to the new reveals that the number of trains has not changed, but the new schedule has a much more even distribution of service. The current P504 schedule falls right in a gap on the new schedule, so P504 passengers will have to leave ~20 min earlier or ~15 min later. Not a big deal from my perspective. The current P512 schedule also falls right in a gap on the new schedule, and this one is a bigger inconvenience - current P512 passengers will have to move to P584 (~30 min earlier) or P586 (20 min later). This could be a contentious issue for those passengers.

How would I fix the inbound rush hour schedule?

1) Eliminate the bullet train. 2) Change P506 to an express after Framingham.3) Use the bullet train equipment as a a local train, departing Framingham soon after P506 passes through Framingham (departure time from Framingham of ~7:20 AM), so it is between P506 and P508 on the current draft schedule. Similar to what is on the October draft schedule.This will never happen, because the Worcester politicians will never let me take away their bullet train. Or maybe we can convince them this makes more sense and actually provides more benefit to Worcester passengers than the bullet train? My solution does a number of things:1) Helps with passenger loading on P506 (currently a SRO train in the Newtons);2) Improves transit time for P506 passengers from west of Framingham - P506 would probably arrive at South Station around 7:40 AM, a savings of ~20 minutes; and3) More evenly distributes arrival headways at South Station for Worcester to Ashland passengers in the critical 7 AM to 8 AM window. It also eliminates an inbound option for Worcester passengers between 7:30 AM and 8:40 AM, which is a large gap. But that gap exists on the current schedule, so it is NOT a loss of service. I'd love to add another express (true 'express' - not bullet) in that gap, but we would need an additional set of equipment to do that, and that doesn't exist.

OUTBOUND

​The epic blog post that will never end continues with the analysis of the outbound rush hour service.

This time I won't ignore 'interzone' passengers, because they don't have adequate opportunities to travel to Framingham and make a reasonable switch from a local to an express train. The wait times at Framingham range from 9 minutes to over 30 minutes. I'm not sure how to fix that, because reducing that wait time would mess up the departure headways at South Station. The system just isn't ideal for interzone passengers. There is one group of interzone passengers that I'll single out - the students who board the current P521 at Auburndale to travel outbound to West Natick, Framingham, and points west. The loss of this P521 train at the current 3:20 PM time (with replacement service provided by 'full length' local P515 at 2:26 PM) will probably be a problem for these students. Only a dozen or so passengers, but it does highlight that there is some legitimate interzone usage that will be inconvienienced by the new schedule.

Moving on to service for passengers destined for the Ashland to Worcester stations, current service is provided by six trains, three of which are express. The new schedule has seven trains, with four express. This doesn't include the bullet train, since it falls outside the definition of rush hour. It does include a new express at 3:30 PM, which I'm not comfortable considering 'rush hour,' but that's what the MBTA says.

The arrival headways range from 24 min to ~40 min (after the first 58 min gap, which is probably OK since it is very early in the expanded 'rush hour' definition).

Let's use our guessing game again and take a look at where the current passengers will move to (still focusing only on passengers destined for Ashland to Worcester):Current passengers of P523 need to leave 35 min earlier or 20 min later. This will probably generate complaints.Current passengers of P527 have little change Current passengers of P583 will probably switch to P523 (10 min later)Current passengers of P531 can switch to P523 (5 min later)Current passengers of P533 need to leave 15 min earlier or 15 min later. But they're still stuck on a local.Current passengers of P535 will probably switch to P529 (10 min later).

So the big switch is P523. But the lack of expresses after 5:40 PM persists.

There is no outbound express service currently provided to Natick Center. They get one new express option with train P519. Not sure why, and as I have stated before, I don't think Natick Center should have any express service.

West Natick currently has two outbound express trains stopping there. The new schedule provides them with three express trains stopping there, but one of the most popular trains, the current P527 (5:00 PM South Station departure) loses its express stop at West Natick. Again, this may be for load distribution, as the current P527 has a heavy passenger load with the largest set used on the system (8 doubles). Eliminating the West Natick stop from P527 forces probably a few hundred people off that train and theoretically onto the 5:15 local, which does not carry a heavy passenger load (at least comparatively). I expect the loss of the express service to West Natick at this time to be a point of contention for West Natick passengers.

Once again, we're down to looking at our friends at the three Wellesley and three Newton stations. Express service is not appropriate, and none is provided on the old schedule or proposed on the new schedule. [Does anyone remember the ~1 year where an outbound express made a random stop at Wellesley Hills and then continued express from there? Rumor was it was a politically or MBTA management driven special stop, but I've never been able to confirm that rumor...]

The new schedule provides these stations with six trains versus the current five. Headways are reasonable, with gaps from an initial 55 min (again, early in the rush hour), down to 40 minutes for the height of rush hour. Late in the rush hour, the Newtons lose a set of station stops (P527 on the new draft schedule), which stretches the headway to 60 min between the 5:50 PM and 6:50 PM South Station departures. This is somewhat odd since there is not an ​opposing inbound train making the Newton stops at that time, so skipping the Newtons just shaves a little time off that train's transit time.

So except for that anomaly, the outbound service provided to the Newtons and Wellesleys is very similar to the current service.

How would I fix the outbound hour schedule?

1) Eliminate the bullet train. (Anyone notice a theme here?)2) Change the new P527 (6:20 PM South Station departure) to an express (skipping the Newtons, Wellesleys, and Natick Center). Perhaps move its departure time up to 6:10 PM. 3) Use the bullet train equipment as a new local train that departs South Station soon after my new express at 6:10 PM. This local can terminate in Framingham or Worcester - service on this local from Framingham to Worcester would be duplicative of the service being provided by the express. But maybe the set is needed in Worcester to become an inbound train. 4) The new 5:50 PM local (P525) can also be terminated in Framingham, since Framingham to Worcester passengers can just wait for my new 6:10 PM express and get express service. But again, maybe that set is needed in Worcester to turn as an inbound, so there is no harm having it continue as a local to Worcester.

Random thoughts

1) Why are they combining the public meetings about schedule changes with the fare hike issue? Most people care about both issues, but discussing them both at the same time is going to be distracting, confusing, and frustrating. Maybe they think they're being efficient by combining the two (so we don't have to go to two separate meetings), but I don't think so.

2) Why has the roll-out of these draft schedules been so quiet and confusing? They were first leaked out on the Fiscal and Management Control Board web page, and then an MBTA announcement page appeared (without much notice). The public meetings were announced on a Friday afternoon, which is a time honored traditional way of burying press releases when nobody is paying attention. A MassDOT public relations person did reach out to me individually (presumably as a result of this blog and my presence on Twitter), which I found surprising, ego-filling (wow, they noticed me!), slightly scary, but also pleasantly satisfying ('they're trying to do the right thing!').

But most notably, on Wednesday 1/12, a good week after these had been out on the street, I approached a purple vested Keolis Customer Service agent out on the platforms at South Station. She was handing out flyers about the "Severe Weather" plans. I asked if she had or if Keolis was going to distribute any printed copies of the new draft schedules. After she tried to give me the current schedule, and my attempts to explain what I was looking for, it was clear she had no idea what I was talking about. That's frustrating, but I wonder if it is also a result of the new draft schedules being driven and rolled out by the MBTA, NOT by Keolis. Keolis really has not much to do with these new schedules, which is understandable if you reconsider the contractual arrangement between the MBTA and Keolis. Keolis may be providing data and answering operational questions, but I'll bet the MBTA has most of the data they need for this exercise. It will be interesting to see who attends the kiosks and meetings - I'll bet it's mostly MBTA and MassDOT folks.

3) Why in the world didn't they start the process with this kind of roll-out (published draft, public comment gathering, public meetings, etc.). How did they think that these kind of changes could be implemented without public backlash, leading to political pressure? At least we're on the right track now. It will be interesting to see what kind of changes they can make - they will have a lot of stakeholders to answer to who will have conflicting requests (Natick Center passenger: "I want more expresses!" vs. Worcester passenger: "Please shave off as many minutes from my commute as possible!"). It won't be possible to please everyone. And everyone will be coming in with a chip on their shoulder after the recent failures and the general negative perception people have about the Commuter Rail.

4) The PowerPoint that was presented to the Fiscal and Management Control Board is very interesting. I don't like the way they parsed out some of the data (just high level 'number of trains' to a particular station), but it does have some revealing operational details such as the effort to avoid interlining trains. In fact, on that point, I'm not sure that is a good idea. That is forcing problems on one line to STAY on one line, meaning the one line experiecning problems will just get worse. Interlining trains may spread the pain amongst different lines, but that might be a good thing - avoid having one line take all of the pain.

5) I didn't find the comparison document that they prepared very helpful. But you might. It's here.

I look forward to meeting some of you at the public meetings! I hope to be at both of them.

EDIT 11/8/2015: Be sure to read this blog post for an update on when this new schedule will become effective.

EDIT 10/22/15: Be sure to read the comment from "CH" in the comments below regarding the potential implementation date for this schedule.
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Don't you love the internet and twitter?

​It turns out that the MBTA actually had a poster with the draft schedule on it at the press conference on October 7, 2015. Cyrus Moulton snapped a photo of it and tweeted it out. I didn't discover this until all the twitter chatter about my blog post earlier Wednesday. With his permission, here is his tweet with his photo.

Still kind of hard to read. So I extrapolated all the times from it and created the tables below (somewhere over the years I got an official Excel schedule template, which is really handy). It was hard to read some of the times in the picture, so the exact times on my table below may not match the picture exactly. AND ALL OF THIS IS STILL DRAFT. Click on the image below for a full size version.

Notes:

1) Yellow shading indicates 'rush hour' service.

2) The poster included the 3:30 PM and 3:55 PM outbound trains as part of 'rush hour.' I think that is a typo on the poster, but I have kept them in the 'rush hour' category just so I'm matching the poster as it was displayed. Doesn't really matter for most of us - the most important rule about rush hour trains is that full size bikes are not allowed on rush hour trains.

3) This is my reproduction of something which was publicly displayed. It isn't 'inside information' and it doesn't appear to have been embargoed.

4) It is still DRAFT and therefore there may be changes on the final version when it is published. We have no way of knowing how 'draft' it is. Maybe it is close to final; maybe there will be a lot of changes on the final version that is published (get your comments up early?).

5) As I noted, I extrapolated times from a fuzzy picture. Don't focus on the precise times - there might be mistakes of a few minutes either way on my table. But it should be pretty close.

6) If you want to compare the new schedule to the 'current' schedule, the only fair comparison is to the 7/1/2014 version. The actual current schedule in place as of 6/8/2015 is a temporary schedule implemented to accommodate the construction on the line (rail destressing project). Note that rush hour service on both the 7/1/2014 and 6/8/2015 schedules is exactly the same. The 7/1/14 schedule is here (click on it for a PDF of it):

My thoughts / analysis on the new schedule:

1) Most of my analysis and reactions in the blog post from earlier Wednesday are still valid. Read that blog post for more details on a variety of relevant topics. For example, my explanation of 'why May 2016?' for the bullet train is still valid (and still just my speculation).

2) I'm a serious geek. I got excited that there is now a better pattern to the naming convention for the trains:
500 to 538 (even numbers) = Worcester origination
580 to 592 (even numbers) = Framingham origination
501 to 539 (odd numbers) = Boston to Worcester
581 to 589 (odd numbers) = Boston to Framingham
That's the most important part of this new schedule, right? [They actually have 'bullet' as the name of the 'bullet' train on the draft schedule. Doesn't it need a number?]

3) As I predicted, West Natick and Natick passengers are losing most of their express trains. I've previously stated my thoughts on this issue. I won't invite more hate mail from Natick residents here. But shoot away in the comments.

4) There are no 'leapfrog' moves any more, as far as I can tell. All the trains arrive in Boston, Framingham, or Worcester in the same order they depart. This is a pretty nifty change, and maximizes the two tracks we have. While the leapfrog trains were a cool way to get express trains over the line, they are very disruptive to the process of moving trains inbound and outbound at the same time, especially given the limited number of crossover switches available to move trains from one track to another.

5) Wellesley Square gets two outbound 'limited' (almost express) trains stopping there. Very interesting, and will probably only serve to infuriate the Natick passengers even more. I really can't understand this concept. Those trains will be heavily utilized by passengers traveling west of Framingham, and slowing their transit down for stops at Wellesley Square, Natick, AND West Natick certainly seems to go against the approach of the AM schedule. Wellesley Square passengers have an under 40 minute ride on a local train. Do they really need a 'limited' train to get that duration down to around 25 minutes when passengers west of Framingham have a commute of at least 40 minutes even on an express train? Can somebody check the real estate transactions and see if Charlie Baker is moving to Wellesley?

6) Framingham benefits from all of the trains (except the bullet train), as it always has and always will. There is a serendipitous confluence of factors that make Framingham the center of our universe:
a) configuration of switches makes it the only practical place to have a mid-point termimal on the line
b) second highest ridership (after Worcester)
c) freight yard just to the west of the station offers places for trains to be 'stored' between trips (or overnight)
d) presence of freight yard and Concord Street crossing requires all trains to travel slow through the area. So skipping Framingham with an express train is of minimal incremental benefit, since trains have to go slow there anyway.
e) it's my stop. ;)

7) With the full schedule on display, the 'bullet' trains look even more silly to me. Political additions to the schedule, in my humble opinion. As someone stated on twitter, the evening bullet train will probably be a deadhead move. And having the bullet train skip Yawkey must be only to get the duration under 1 hour.

8) The even, regular, and predictable frequency of the AM rush hour and most of the day in both directions is nice. Compare our line to other lines, or to the Framingham / Worcester of years past - use my schedule archive to find lots of schedules. We're probably getting the best schedule of anyone with this new schedule. We certainly have the most express trains. Although we'll have to see what changes other lines get.

9) There is a long gap on the inbound schedule in the ~8 AM to ~9 AM period for all stations. After the last inbound rush hour train (at any station), the next train is not for 1.5 to 2 hours later. And with the last inbound train relatively early (for example, before 8 AM for everything west of Framingham), this is a problematic gap in service. Much of it is due to the bullet train - have to 'clear the decks' so it can go screaming through. The lack of an arrival train in Boston between 9 AM and 10:40 AM is too big a gap for that time of day. Maybe there just isn't enough equipment to support another set(s) at those times, but I anticipate lots of complaints about this issue.

10) Other than my critiques above, which are not necessarily minor, I'm impressed with the new schedule. I think it offers good options for most riders - and balances the needs of distant passengers with those closer in (for the most part). Trying to give all commuters a reasonably quick ride, while eliminating the REALLY quick ride for some (e.g inbound Natick express), seems to be a fair trade-off or balance from my perspective.

What are your thoughts?

By the way, this post and much of the information I'm getting wouldn't be possible without the assistance of the news media. They are going to the events and contacting managers and getting information, which they are letting me use here for my more detailed analysis. So kudos to them for sharing their stuff with me. Everyone needs to go out and renew their subscription to their local paper. I did. I guess we should also buy something we see advertised during the local television news? Not sure how to support them. Maybe just say thanks.
​

This blog post is somewhat ridiculously premature, since both Keolis and the MBTA have promised that the full new detailed schedules will be posted within the next few weeks. But they jumped the gun by giving us a glimpse of the changes, so they're inviting my speculation and criticism. So here goes...

On Wednesday October 7, Lt. Governor Karyn Polito held a press conference at Union Station in Worcester to announce the invention of what we are all now calling the 'bullet train' - a non-stop super express train that will go direct from Worcester to Boston, bypassing all stops.

As quoted by both the MASS DOT blog and the MBTA official press release, Lt. Gov. Polito said, "For the first time ever, non-stop train service between Worcester and Boston in under one hour will become a reality."

Because when the MBTA released the schedule details to the Worcester Telegram and Gazette, it actually isn't "under" one hour, it's one hour and 2 minutes to South Station. But if she is talking about a Back Bay arrival, which isn't on the table below, it is under one hour. So we'll have to accept the 'under' one hour claim...even if it isn't accurate for people going to South Station. Oh well.

MY definitions first:"bullet train" - direct, non-stop train to/from Boston to Worcester with no other stops. "zone express" - some kind of express train that bypasses all Wellesley and Newton stops. Some 'zone express' trains bypass West Natick and/or Natick Center."limited" - a train which makes ALMOST all local stops. For example, P512 skips 2 Newton stops. So it can't be a local - therefore let's call it a 'limited.'"local" - train that makes all stops. It may originate or terminate in Worcester or Framingham.

We'll tackle AM rush hour first. Note that the AM 'rush hour' is defined as start of service until 9:00 AM (as measured at the origination of a departing train). In other words, the entire trip of a train that leaves at 8:55 AM is considered rush hour service, even though it doesn't arrive in Boston until after 9:00 AM.

​Current schedule: 9 inbound trains. 7 from Worcester, 2 from Framingham. Both Framingham departures make all local stops. 4 of the 7 Worcester trains are locals (one is actually a limited, P512, as noted above). Therefore there are 3 'zone express' trains from Worcester.

The new schedule is advertised as: 11 inbound trains. 7 from Worcester, 4 from Framingham. We'll have to assume the Framingham trains will make all local stops. 6 of the 7 Worcester trains will be express, with 1 of those six being the bullet train. Therefore there will be 5 zone express trains from Worcester. This text explanation is taken from the MBTA press release.

Let's compare the current schedule to the new schedule, as best we can, based on the limited data we have to work with thus far:

1) ​New 4:45 AM Worcester departure mimics current P500. Based on arrival time of new train, this appears to be the one 'local' from Worcester (same as current P500).2) New 5:15 AM Worcester departure replaces P502. P502 is already a zone express train, but has a duration of 1:28 vs the duration of the new train at 1:21. Not sure where they save 7 minutes. Maybe it skips both Naticks. I'm just speculating, Natick people - don't shoot me yet, wait for the official schedule, please. NOTE that the tweet above does NOT have this train highlighted as a zone express, but the duration on the tweet table is not consistent with a local. 3) Here is the spot where I see space for the first Framingham local. A 5:15 AM Worcester train gets to Framingham around 6:10 AM. Therefore a Framingham local could depart at 6:15 AM and arrive Boston about 7:00 AM. This would offer a schedule similar to the current P504 for passengers from Framingham to Boston. 4) New 6:00 AM Worcester departure mimics current P582. Zone express. 5) New 6:30 AM Worcester departure has similar departure time to current P506. But P506 is a local, and this train is being advertised as a zone express. The duration indicates it is a zone express (25 minutes shorter duration than P506). 6) Perhaps this is where they insert another Framingham local, to replace the loss of P506 for passengers east of Framingham. Possibly a 7:30 Framingham departure with a 8:25 South Station arrival? 7) New 7:00 AM Worcester departure mimics P508, but with a 14 minute shorter duration. Where do they get 14 minutes off this train with very heavy ridership? Do they eliminate West Natick and Natick Center? This train could 'leapfrog' my 7:30 Framingham departure. 8) One more Framingham departure to replace P510 here? Depart ~8:10 AM and arrive ~9:10 AM? 9) New 7:30 AM Worcester departure looks like a replacement for P512. P512 is currently a 'limited' with a duration of 1:33. New train has duration of 1:21. Saving 12 minutes somewhere; probably making this one more of a zone express (vs. 'limited'). Perhaps it 'leapfrogs' my 8:10 AM Framingham departure. 10) Finally, the bullet train. Departs Worcester at 7:55 AM and arrives 8:57 AM (as I complained above, 1:02 duration). It would also have to 'leapfrog' my 8:10 AM Framingham departure. 11) Final AM rush hour train would be a 8:45 AM Framingham departure that mimics P514.

So there you have it. Eleven AM rush hour trains. I think I have more 'leapfrog' moves than the line can accommodate, but who knows...

Analysis:

Good:
1) There are changes to everyone's departure schedule no matter what origination station you board at. But the changes don't appear to be drastic. As far as I can tell, nobody is getting completely left out in the cold, except for perhaps Natick passengers who have been spoiled with expresses (see below).
2) Essentially this schedule removes the 2 full locals P504 and P506 and offers replacement express options for passengers west of Framingham and (probably) local options for passengers east of Framingham. Not bad.

Bad:
1) I think the times of the 'bullet' train are not ideal. My gut feeling is the height of rush hour is earlier than the time for the bullet train. Add 10 minutes of walking time after arrival in Boston, and bullet train passengers (Back Bay OR South Station) aren't getting to their office until after 9 AM. I think that is too late for most people. But I'll bet that's the earliest they can squeeze the train through - the problem is that for a train to go express like that, there must be a clear track ahead of it which limits the schedule flexibility of EARLIER trains - both locals and expresses. They have to be off the tracks when the bullet comes through, and that results in long sections of track being empty waiting for the bullet train. No easy answers for the bullet train. All of this is why I call the bullet train bizarre. Especially when you look at the evening bullet train, it really starts to look like a politically scheduled train, rather than a practical one. Don't get me wrong - some people will think it is great and will benefit from it. But I doubt most Worcester passengers will be pleased with the scheduled departure and arrival times.
2) What happens to Natick Center and West Natick? It will be painful and difficult to remove express service from those stations, but probably the right thing to do for the passengers with longer commutes to the west of Framingham. A local ride from Natick Center or West Natick is only 45-55 minutes, while most express rides from Worcester, Grafton, and Westborough are from 1 hour to 1:15 even when skipping West Natick and Natick Center. [OK, Natick riders, shoot away.]
3) Squeezing eleven trains into the AM rush hour means more chance for cascading delays and traffic jams when delays / breakdowns / medical emergencies / etc. occur. Less 'slack' time on the line for the schedule to work itself out. ESPECIALLY with that gosh darn single track in Allston and the ridiculous lack of crossover switches, especially east of Framingham.
4) Why is the bullet train being implemented in May 2016, when we're being promised a new schedule effective 11/1/2015? My guess is they want to keep that bullet set in reserve for the winter. Or even more logical, it is a victim of the still unfulfilled order of new locomotives and unfulfilled order of new "Rotem" coaches. Approximately four of those new locomotives are still getting warrranty repairs prior to being placed into service. And 3 Rotem cars are out of service getting warranty work while 8 other Rotem cars that are in service still need to go down to Rhode Island for warranty service. Also, November 1 and May 1 are the dates when crews get shuffled around - they bid for six month job assignments. So the May 1 date is the earliest practical date to add a whole new train to the schedule after the winter from a crew scheduling perspective. Adding the train to the schedule between 11/1 and 5/1 might mean it would have to be crewed with an 'extra' crew (perhaps on overtime). It will certainly be odd if they implement the completely new schedule on 11/1/15 without the bullet train - that will leave a huge gap in the Worcester departures (nothing between 7:30 AM and 9:05 AM).

OK, this blog post has rambled on way too long. Perhaps I'll do a detailed analysis of the PM rush schedule at some point, but I'll leave with one last comment about the PM rush hour:

The PM bullet train will depart South Station at 7:40 PM and arrive Worcester at 8:42 PM?!?!?! That isn't even close to being within 'rush hour' as defined by the MBTA or any sane person! Having the bullet train that late will no doubt be a benefit to some people, but it CANNOT be called a rush hour train or even a commuter train. So that is a complete joke. I'll bet it is overrun with people who get on it by mistake and really want to get off somewhere between Boston and Worcester.

Granted, the PM rush hour is much harder to manage and tweak due to a number of factors:
1) Shorter window: 3 hours (4 PM to 7 PM) vs. 4+ hours (4:45 AM to 9 AM).
2) Inbound trains from earlier in the day already on the move (limits options for available trainsets and crews).
3) Inbound trains from earlier in the day prevent as many 'leapfrog' moves as might be desired.
4) And I think the 'height' of rush hour is really between 4:30 PM and 6:30 PM - I'll bet that is when most commuters board outbound trains.

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Author

As of late October 2017, the author is an MBTA employee. Blog posts prior to that time were created when I was NOT affiliated with the MBTA nor Keolis and therefore were my own opinion. Blog posts after October 2017 are my own personal statements and do not represent any official position or opinion of the MBTA and should not be construed as having been endorsed by the MBTA.