Cyprus In Transition

January 20, 2005

Public Opinion and the Negotiations Process

This from a letter by Ramadan Salih in Nicosia north in today's Turkish Daily News where the author suggests a way of incorporating the views of citizens into the negotiations process. An interesting suggestion which was attempted with some effect in Northern Ireland in the run up to the Good Friday Agreement:

If the common approach shared by both sides in Cyprus is to take up the Annan plan once more and bring about changes that would be acceptable to the majorities, then breaking down the number of "No" votes cast in the referenda with respect to different concerns of the people on both sides and prioritizing them for the purpose of defining and adjusting the dose of necessary changes to the Annan plan in line with common concerns to be expressed by both sides will be a realistic starting point.

The task of defining and breaking down different concerns can be undertaken by the mediators through the aid of a comprehensive public survey (questionnaire) that would demand from its subjects a prioritization of their concerns. Different concerns that spring to mind at first glance are: the degree of functionality, the degree of power sharing, the rigidity of property arrangements, the credibility of compensation arrangements, the degree of intermingling of people from the two sides and the credibility of the security arrangements. The list can be enlarged.

If, for example, the results of the public survey revel that a low degree of functionality is a real common concern for both sides, then it may seem that any change to the Annan plan to the effect of increasing its functionality will create a win-win situation. But given the fact that a federal system of governance, political equality and bi-zonalityhave been the three agreed fundamental parameters since 1977, one should come to the understanding that any change to the Annan plan should exclude a deviation towards a unitary state (which can also bring about functionality) because a unitary state highly excludes all of the three agreed fundamental parameters, whereas achieving a higher degree of functionality through a deviation towards a looser federation seems to be a more viable and acceptable alternative because this can better accommodate the three parameters.