With 15.5 Million Active Blogs, New Technorati Data Shows that Blogging Growth Seems to be Peaking

With 15.5 Million Active Blogs, New Technorati Data Shows that Blogging Growth Seems to be Peaking

Heather Green

After Dave Sifry published the most recent State of the Live Web, I emailed him to drill into a couple of the numbers, prompted by questions at Matthew Hurst and Steve Rubel's blogs. The data Sifry sent back seems to show that blogging growth is plateauing.

The reason? Though social media is going strong, one particular form of it, blogging, simply might not be for everyone.

The numbers here show around 15.5 million active blogs, or blogs that have been updated in the past 90 days. Hurst pointed out, and I agree, that this is a more key number. That's why I asked Sifry for this data. It's a very different number from the overall 70 million total blogs that Technorati ever reports tracking.

As well, the percentage of blogs that are active compared to the total number of blogs tracked by Technorati is declining, according to the data that Sifry sent. (Here's the actual slide he sent, which I can't shrink down without losing the data)View image

March 2007 15,534,430 20.93%

Oct. 2006 15,297,100 27.42%

May 2006 13,720,748 36.71%

I also asked about daily posts. I had been a little confused by a sentence he wrote that said that daily posts were growing, though he had included a chart that appeared to show them dropping.

Here's his answer: "The number of new posts per day that Technorati is tracking is indeed increasing, from about 1.3 million posts per day to about 1.5 million postings per day."

However, there has been slight decrease in the number of English-language posts.

The number of daily English language posts dropped to 495,000 in March from 507,000 in October.

In other words, in October 2006, 39% of blog posts were in English. In March 2007, only 33% were in in English.

In his email Sifry says "My conclusion is that we're still seeing growth in the blogosphere, but that the growth is slowing."

I would argue that it's peaking, though of course, to be entirely sure, you need to have more data for a few more quarters.

But what does it mean, whether it's slowing or peaking? It may well be, as Rubel and Gartner argue that, most people interested in setting up their digital soapboxes already have. And that folks are opting to do other types of social media, including video, podcasts, and social networks, which appeal to them more.

Excited to try out a new way of connecting with folks online, people flocked to blogging. But after 3 months on average, most bloggers realize that writing about their politics, launch haunts, or co-workers isn?? for them, says Adam Sarner, an analyst at researcher Gartner Inc. Sarner argues that, since the audience reading blogs continues to grow, this classic tech cycle of hype and maturity is good news for the remaining blogs. Those left standing are the influencers that attract audiences and advertisers.

But overall, the question of just how big the blogosphere could be is becoming much clearer.

02:30 PM

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?? Active version Inactive Blogs from Silicon Valley Musings

I found Heather Green?? report on the State of the Live Web quite informative.

There is one more question question I would like Ms. Green to have ask Dave Sifry, namely: How many blogs have more than one post and how many have more than ten post... [Read More]

Tracked on April 27, 2007 12:53 PM

?? What is an Active Blog? from Silicon Valley Musings

I found Heather Green?? report on the State of the Live Web quite informative.

There is one more question question I would like Ms. Green to have ask Dave Sifry, namely: How many blogs have more than one post and how many have more than ten post... [Read More]

Tracked on April 27, 2007 12:58 PM

?? Have We Reached the Peak of Mount Blog? from Chip Griffin: Pardon the Disruption

Great digging by Heather Green at BusinessWeek has uncovered the dirty little secret about the blogosphere that so many of us have surmised for some time. It ain't nearly as big as the hype indicates, though it remains incredibly important [Read More]

Tracked on April 28, 2007 03:06 PM

Very interesting post. If only 33% of posts are now in English, where are the rest? Does this support the various reports which have been floating around about the size of the Japanese and Chinese blogging markets?

Posted by: Paul Woodward at April 25, 2007 07:52 PM

Thanks for this insight. It certainly seems clear that these stats may bear out the experience of blog proponents and web developers on a local market level.

On a local level, in my case Des Moines, Iowa, blogs have always been considered "bleeding edge" and have not really taken strong root among the universe of potential blogarati. Certainly, plenty of blogs originate here and in Iowa. But, hundreds of professional offices (read: law firms) and other businesses seem intent on ignoring the possibilities.

Your conclusion that this means greater influence for those who DO blog - particularly when business blogs are considered, I would absolutely agree with.

Posted by: Chris Kane at April 26, 2007 06:46 AM

No surprise that some blogs and bloggers are lagging. It takes time to prepare, research, frame, structure, and write a good blog. The best are those capable of incorporating original reporting and cogent analysis. I've been a journalist for 30 years, writing for mainstream and new media, and a former national correspondent and contributor to the New York Times since 1981. I started www.modeshift.org to fill a void where urban affairs,environment, technology, economic and communications converged. Blogging provides a way to frame these issues that is so much more readily approachable than in more formal forums. But I also devote roughly two hours a day writing, and many more engaged in research. All that for the roughly 1,000 visitors who stopped by Mode Shift last week. That's enough, especially the handful of readers from Australia, Europe, Japan and China, to keep me going. Writing is like breathing to me. Blogging is adding fresh oxygen. Best, Keith Schneder

Posted by: Keith Schneider at April 30, 2007 10:23 PM

The smart bloggers have figured out how to cater to niche markets with the future possibility of interesting deep pocketed sponsors (ie paidContent). Without this motivating factor, is it really worth the daily effort?

Posted by: S Nelson at May 2, 2007 04:36 PM

Heather,

Great comments. And nice thoughts from Keith as well. I haven't given up blogging yet :). I suppose it is because I feel that I have something to say. Better yet, I use my blog, Stock Picks Bob's Advice (http://bobsadviceforstocks.tripod.com/bobsadviceforstocks), as my own amateur way of refining my own trading rules and maintaining a disciplined approach to picking stocks, investing, and portfolio management.

Over the last four years, I have found that it takes me longer not shorter to put together a post. My own expectations have grown about what is an acceptable entry.

And the experience of blogging has increased my own education about the investment world considerably.

The secret of successful blogging is like every other transaction in the business world. The attempt at providing a product to the consumer of that product that exceeds their expectation. I believe that writing must be based in transparency and honesty and I try to be scrupulously honest in every word that I write online. I share my transactions with my unknown readers and share my own portfolio with them as it develops as if they were my best friends.