The First Word: Dems Try The Reset Button

On this day — Democrats attempt to hit the reset button on their messaging efforts about the budget; the first committee hearings of the special session; get your redistricting round-up for Austin, Houston and San Antonio; and Jay Root looks at why you shouldn’t count Perry out of the Presidential contest.

First, came the press release from Sen. Rodney Ellis‘ office, which detailed a new Democratic budget proposal that overhauls the long under-performing business franchise tax, ends other tax loopholes and pulls $6 billion out of the Rainy Day Fund. Then came several e-mail blasts about the public education finance hearings on Thursday and Friday, which included calls for teachers groups, parent groups and Democrats to come to the Capitol on Saturday for protests. The Democrats and their allies are trying, once again, to inject themselves into a budget debate that’s been dominated by Republicans.

The new push comes on the heels of Sen. Wendy Davis‘ filibuster and the poorly received press conference that followed a day later. For the new push to have any chance at success, Democrats and their allies are going to have to find a way to stick on the same page — not something they’re famous for. It’s also going to depend on teachers and parents and school administrators being able to constantly replicate the success of their March rally, which brought more than 10,000 protestors to the Capitol. The sheer number of protestors seemed to temporarily shift the debate in the Texas Legislature over spending money from the Rainy Day Fund. However, as memories of that protest receded, so did its impact.

As an additional caveat, Democrats are going to have even less influence in the special session than they had during the regular session because Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst has said there will be no two-thirds rule. Senate Republicans won’t have to cut deals with Democrats during the special to bring up legislation they want to consider. Over in the House, the number of Democrats has been so diminished that Republicans can maintain a quorum without them even being present.

With that in mind, do you judge the new strategy’s success based on it’s ability to drive a policy outcome (e.g. additional money being taken from the Rainy Day Fund, which isn’t likely to happen) — or — do you judge it based on its success in showcasing the differences between the Republicans and the Democrats on the budget and laying the policy and rhetorical foundation for the 2012 campaign?

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***The Special Session Gets to Work

– The House Appropriations Committee comes in at 9 a.m.

– The Senate Education Committee meets at 9:30 a.m.

– The Senate Finance Committee meets at 10:00 a.m.

– The House Redistricting Committee meets at 10:45 a.m. or after adjournment, whichever happens later.

Below the fold — Nick Anderson on Palin’s bus tour; in ‘The Clips,’ Jason Embry writes that San Antonio Democrats won’t stand down to give Lloyd Doggett a seat; and Jay Root looks at the long odds that Gov. Rick Perry’s would face running for President.

If the map becomes law — and that’s a long ways off from happening — Doggett may move into the newly created District 35, which stretches from southeastern Travis County, down through eastern Hays and Caldwell counties and into San Antonio.

Doggett would vie for the support of tens of thousands of voters whom he has never represented in Congress before. And that creates an opening for a San Antonio Democrat to try to beat him in the March 2012 primary.

“That district as drawn is probably attractive to no less than half of the Bexar County delegation from the (state) House,” said state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, D-San Antonio. “It takes in some of the most Hispanic and Democratic neighborhoods in San Antonio.”

Martinez Fischer said the district is tempting to him but that it’s too early to decide whether to run.

– The Texas Tribune’s recently departed Matt Stiles put together a very nifty interactive so you can compare the current Congressional district map to the proposed maps. Among my favorite new editions, the new ‘jumbo shrimp’ district that loops from near central Houston, north past the suburbs and then swings around and down to Beaumont.

But if his critics have learned nothing else about Perry, they should know this: Underestimate him at your peril. He’s never lost an election, and in his last primary, he came back from a 20-point deficit in surveys to beat U.S. Sen. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by the same amount. Absent a career-ending scandal, 40-point swings are not common.

“His political opponents spend a lot of time bending over backwards to portray him as just lucky,” said Jim Henson, who directs the Texas Politics Project in the Department of Government at the University of Texas and is co-director of the UT/Texas Tribune poll. “People have to give that up. … That undervalues how politically astute he and his team have been.”

On that issue, lawmakers are divided, not on party lines, but geographical ones. While Republicans generally side with advocates of lawsuit reform — an important element in the TWIA legislation — key Republican senators on the Gulf Coast say they will view the issue through the prism of their district’s geography and stand up for the right of their constituents to demand fair treatment from the insurance cooperative.

Perry indicated at a news conference Tuesday he would add the issue to the agenda of the special session of the Legislature, saying he was not confident the current structure of the windstorm association could handle a large storm this hurricane season.

Lawmakers attempted to reform TWIA, which as been beset by controversy, lawsuits and even a criminal investigation over its handling of nearly 100,000 Hurricane Ike claims from coastal residents, but negotiations broke down late in the regular session.

“I understand the concerns of those about the lawsuits that came out of TWIA, but there has to be a way for my constituents to bring forth a complaint when they are not treated fairly by TWIA,” said Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston. “It’s a balancing act.”