Writing to Inform and Entertain

So you’re shocked about the looting that’s accompanied the peaceful Black Lives Matter protests that have swamped the entirety of America these past few days?

You’ve watched in amazement as retail stores large and small are broken open and stripped bare—not a cop in sight.

You’ve hit Twitter, Instagram and Facebook with your disdain and wonder. It’s terrible you say, nothing like you’ve seen before. You call them thugs and animals as you make your way back to the fridge for another bite while an advert plays on Sky, CNN and Fox.

Where have you been?

There is absolutely no difference here to a hedge fund flash-trading on Wall Street, a multinational corporation siphoning small business handouts from the government, or a politician lying while corrupt.

What shocks me more, particularly in America, is that middle-class onlookers of the recent looting have hidden their heads in the sand till now, from the reality that their society today is largely selfish, brazen and without dreams.

Welcome to Greed Inc.—at a corner near you. “The global franchise where the only Heaven is on Earth.” ™

Doesn’t this piss me off?

Of course, it does.

From the corruption of religion I witnessed yesterday at the hands of Donald Trump, brutalising citizens who were expressing their First Amendment Right of Free Speech, so he could clear the way to a church and hold a bible. I’m sure his savant of a political adviser told him what a great opportunity it was, to shore up the Right-Wing Religious vote and prove to America that he was a conqueror albeit of Lafayette Park Washington, DC.

Let me assure you Mr. President. If the squirrels are still there—you conquered nothing.

To the corruption of religion I saw at a White House multi-faith prayer breakfast some months back, where Kenneth Copeland prayed for Trump’s success side-by-side with reverends, a rabbi and an imam. Copeland would then go on YouTube declaring himself “God”, and commanding that Covid-19 “be gone!”

To the daily lies of politicians worldwide who refuse to admit their errors and malfeasances—most recently US Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, who claimed today that though he nodded to the mayhem at Lafayette Park, he had no idea it came because Trump wanted a photo op at a Church. That’s from one of his team who resigned in disgust just a few hours ago.

To the whores (and that’s gender neutral) who call themselves journalists, paid millions to read the news and parrot the commentary of their billionaire network benefactors. To the networks themselves, who claim to offer honest narratives, different from their rivals while all feed on the same hype to sell the same microwave ovens and colour TVs.

To the gangs of thugs that roam the streets day and night while protected from justice. Mainstream mafia we could call them, but it’s only entertaining with Francis Ford Coppola behind the lens and Al Pacino on the screen.

Yes, it pisses me off.

Because were I at any of those rampaged stores, I’d be the one struggling to find a pair of EEE shoes for wide feet and too honest to leave before I powered up the EFTPOS to swipe my card.

But for my reward as the guy who just watches from home, I’ll still get screwed at the register once the clean-ups are done.

Because most crap is made by slave labour in China these days, while those stores will still want to charge me US-made retail.

There have been 17,083 gun violence deaths in the USA since January, as at the time of writing.

After a weekend of silence, including time hunkered down in his White House bunker at the behest of the US Secret Service, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, finally showed himself a few hours ago. It was Monday early evening in Washington DC.

Race rioting and protests were still sweeping his American mainland, ignited by the murder of a black man, George Floyd, by Minneapolis Police last week.

Unlike the LA riots of 1992, unlike the birth of the Black Lives Matter movement in 2013—the entire American land mass was speaking out. And due to domestic weaknesses borne by the mishandled Covid-19 pandemic, 14% unemployment, unprecedented income inequality, and the constant hyperbole of its president—America was being looted by brazen scum as if a single target of opportunity.

Trump’s America was weak.

So, in the Rose Garden he read a speech written with a predictable soporific cadence. This was a speech meant to calm nerves; to exude a guardian’s leadership; to impart the virtue of empathy. It was a speech his aides had been pleading with him to make for days as his administration had left a dangerous vacuum.

But we didn’t get JFK, not even a clumsy Ronald Reagan. Instead we heard a man whose megalomania as usual infected his rhetoric. Trump gave a call to arms and it included a curious statement that went way over the heads of the media. He said:

I am taking immediate presidential action to stop the violence and restore security and safety to America. I am mobilising all available Federal resources civilian and military to stop the rioting and looting, to end the destruction and arson, and to protect the rights of law-abiding Americans—including your Second Amendment Rights.

That’s strange.

It’s the US First Amendment that guarantees Freedom of Speech and Expression. Isn’t that what America is most at risk of losing as rioters and overzealous police stifle peaceful assemblies in protest?

According to Trump, apparently not.

So what is this “Second Amendment Right”? Well, the Bill of Rights (that amends the US Constitution—hence the name) defines it as follows:

A well regulated Militia being necessary, to the security of a free State, the right of people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

Had Donald Trump just called on all American gun owners to “lock and load” in order to help end protesting, looting and rioting in their States?

Thing is, and I’m referring to my copy of Erwin Chemerinsky’s Constitutional Law: Principles and Policies here—subsequent interpretations of the Second Amendment, had extended the right to bear and use arms beyond the forming of Militias. In a number of US Supreme Court decisions this century, it was ruled that Americans could use their guns in self defence and for the protection of property.

But from whom? The spirit of the law must mean, the unconstitutional actions of Federal Government dictatorships.

Trump then went further. He also said he will:

Deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem.

First up, he can’t do that under the US Posse Comitatus Act. The United States Armed Forces (unlike its National Guard at the invitation of State governors) cannot participate in enforcing domestic law and order. Second up, that’s why the Constitution gives the freedom to its citizens to form Militias—to prevent egregious acts of the Federal Government against its people!

So, say he still does this and the US 1st Cavalry Division’s Abrams tanks and the 101st Airborne Division’s Apache helicopters start firing down Main Street USA well, according to Trump, you should now take out your assault rifles, sniper scopes and anti-tank rockets and fight back.

That of course, isn’t what Trump meant.

Trump intended that righteous, National Rifle Association registered, Republican voting gun owners should stand side-by-side with his military as they sweep urban territories.

What he doesn’t fathom, is that gun ownership doesn’t concern itself with whom people vote for—and definitely not their race. So, it won’t just be the KKK on the streets taking pot-shots at their fellow Americans. White Supremacists will start taking fire too—and a Second Civil War is in the making.

All hope now rests with the cool heads of State governors and in Trump’s advisors having the guts to explain what being President means.

Till then, keep an eye on America’s “Right to Carry” States, especially Texas where Dallas, Houston and Austin are at flashpoint. Just a few weeks ago we saw plenty of fingers on weapons carried at town halls ironically in lockdown protests, itching to squeeze off a few rounds.

The good thing about Trump, is that when he talks hype nobody really listens. For another thing most observers missed, is that when he said he would restore law and order to America, he said that would be achieved “today”.

Still, that mention of the Second Amendment. It was very weird. Did Trump think he was giving an election speech while his country burned?

In my last article, “A Micro Approach to Stopping Covid-19 Killing Your Business”, we looked at three activities nearly every business can undertake to set themselves up for a successful Covid-19 re-opening.

I wanted to follow it up here, with some fantastic examples I’ve come across of businesses doing what I meant in this regard, because all come from everyday enterprises, across varied industries and all have one thing in common:

Their mindsets are about service because they all know cashflow comes from customers who trust them.

So, first up let’s recap those three activities nearly every business can use to transit out of lockdown:

Regain consumer faith—Show that you’re COVIDsafe.

Get an email address from every customer—but not for marketing.

Put your reputation above everything.

Example 1—A restaurant

This long-standing Hungarian bistro very early on emailed its diners about a changeover from seated service to pick up. It was the first restaurant I came across doing this at a time when the big chains were still working out their strategies. And because I’d heard about it from a friend, it was a perfect example of what happens when a fan turns into an advocate—they spread the word. This restaurant used to fill its tables seven days a week across two sittings per night. Yet, it still had the foresight to ask for its customers’ email details over the years. It’s never too late to start, you should too.

Example 2—A specialty butcher

A week into the lockdown this well-frequented shop used its email list to inform clients of a genuine concern with staff safety. It cut straight to the point when it said: should one staff member fall ill, they’d have to close. So, tri-weekly emails followed directing customers firstly, to a pick up service and then to a full delivery setup—none of which were operational before the pandemic. Importantly, they weren’t shy while openly describing the logistical issues they faced. Guess what? Nobody viewed those emails as spam; this business continues to communicate by email and by Facebook as it plans a return to full in-shop service. It’s already telling customers of a soon-to-come brand new e-store too. A perfect example of trust-building by staying true to message, and one that will likely increase turnover.

Example 3—A toy and game shop

This niche establishment used both email and Facebook part way through the lockdown to also communicate a concern for staff wellbeing. When it announced a sudden changeover from in-store service to carpark pick up, it was already running a smooth international mail order. But its candour and humour ensured a continued face-to-face (or face-to car boot) relationship too. Last week, it announced the reopening of its retail store including clearly communicated customer protocols. Safety remains the key and it knows it’s ok to say so.

Example 4—A travel agency

This boutique firm used Facebook to communicate its team’s eagerness to serve clients while working from home. Its industry would have to be one of the hardest hit by this pandemic. Yet, while its competitors were still running TV ads showing travel shopfronts from another era, this agency was out speaking the truth that personalised service needn’t end though the journey ahead lay uncertain (which is kind of their speciality when you think about it, really).

Example 5—A health clinic

This specialist provider completely remodelled its practice with a wow-factor that initiated a one-way travel flow through its practice; it cordoned off individual seating zones by the chair and wore face masks during client payment interactions. No two clients could ever cross close paths while inside making visiting a truly impressive experience. Word soon got out.

Example 6—A small to medium-sized manufacturer

This recreational goods company had regularly communicated with its thousands of worldwide customers via a monthly email for years. Today, it announced a return to business coinciding with the re-opening of the Californian economy. Its communique told customers of the health status of its staff and of an impressive reconfiguration of its warehousing including a move to unique split-shifts, the opening of an almost 24-hour chat service from its premises, plus a full disclosure of its fulfilment expectations while adjusting to its new world. The amount of thought put into this refit was so fascinating to me, that it formed the catalyst for writing this follow-up piece.

*****

Now, taking everything described above, can you see what’s in common?

That’s right. There’s not one suggestion of marketing, gimmickry or bull. Just sincere professional projections of concern for staff and customer care. You can do this too.

My advice, in addition to the PR I recommended in my prior article, is for you to also share your business’ pandemic-proofing stories on LinkedIn. As LinkedIn is pure B2B, I’m sure there are plenty of lessons many can learn from. And if you do, please cast aside any pressure you feel to sound super-polished—because LI isn’t Instagram!

Wishing you and your teams a safe re-opening and please stay alert. This pandemic isn’t over yet and despite the Dow going over 900 points positive-bananas yesterday, while Japan slipped into a deep recession—keep your wits about you. Things are not what they seem and very little right now is making sense.

Merely three months after the World went into lockdown under the threat of Covid-19, countries are already rebooting their economies. All the while, the same pandemic remains on the loose, while no international coordination or planning exits. We’re all now herds in an abundantly risk-fraught cattle drive.

It’s billionaire moguls in Australia, the UK and the United States, like Rupert Murdoch and Kerry Stokes, who are pushing their local business and retail lobbies onto the 24-7 airwaves. Both men own or influence troubled media conglomerates and in Australia last week, Murdoch lost a billion dollars to his own cable company, Foxtel—a monopoly no less—whose lifeline hinged on the country’s National Rugby League. Stokes’ Seven Network broadcasts the similarly shelved Australian Rules Football. Both sports have seen their 2020 seasons suspended till now.

But let’s face it, for most business owners across many industries, the Covid-19 pandemic has hit them hard. And for good reason, it’s a contagion unparalleled in living memory. It’s meant scaling back economic activity sending global unemployment into the tens of millions. Monetary easing and government-sanctioned loan deferrals have upended commercial finance. The unbelievably negligent misapplication of Just In Time manufacturing (JIT) in the world’s supply chains has overshadowed it all.

I graduated into the JIT culture of the late 1980s. My first Human Resources role saw the trial of what were then called JIT Cells (much like the controlled clinical trials we’re going through with Covid-19 treatments today). In them, manufacturers took the lead from 1960s Swedish time and motion studies testing the theory’s merit.

JIT did cut costs but in a way we couldn’t then foresee. Today, we call it Neo-Conservatism, Privatisation or Globalisation. And as the 1990s subsequently swept through recession after recession, JIT kept inventories low. That was until its progenitor, Japan, collapsed in a financial morass of its own, a disaster from which it has never recovered.

And when the capitalist economies of the West began running their JIT supply lines through China early this century, they too came crashing down when Covid-19 took the Communist regime’s pride out of the picture.

It’s easy to blame Covid-19 for the world’s economic pain. It’s inescapable. But when looking for a solution we need to acknowledge that underlying the current recession have been two decades of stagnation in the retail sector borne from the loss of manufacturing to China. When you close significant factory ecosystems, cities and their disposable incomes tend to go with them.

But this article isn’t about fixing the world’s macroeconomic malaise. We need to keep it strategically in mind, but we also need to talk about something closer to home.

How can you get your business up and running again without Covid-19 destroying it altogether? And to answer that, we can implement a few solutions common to nearly all.

Regain consumer faith—Show that you’re COVIDsafe

The most important thing you can do right now, particularly if you’re a brick and mortar store—but this applies to service centres too—is show a professional “COVIDsafe” face.

You need to attract every dollar of foot traffic into your premises. And the way you do that, is by making it blatantly clear that when those feet enter, you care about their health and safety every second they’re there.

Are your staff wearing masks? Are they wearing gloves where appropriate and changing them after touching cash? Are interfaces being disinfected before customers use them? Are you clearly marking regulation-compliant areas where customers can wait their turn or be served? Are you ensuring 1.5 metres between customers in your isles? Are you minimising customer contact with goods and ensuring your staff take extreme care maintaining inventory condition? Are you limiting time per person in store?

And here’s the crux: Are you then communicating everything you’re doing in this way through a large, clear “Welcome” message in your window to lure your dollar-holders inside with a fit-out that wows them when they see it’s true? Do your traditional and online media advertising reflect it? Does your website convey it?

We’re talking about proactive public relations in its purest form and those who land it will take a clear patronage advantage over those stuck in mindsets just months old.

Get an email address from every customer

Over the past couple of decades, business lobbies and industry associations have turned a blind eye to the misuse of email and social media as tools of spam. Now, you’re suffering for it when email, these past months, could have been your lifeline.

Email could have been your vehicle for what it was initially born to do. Communicate: to ensure your customers will stick with you through hard times.

This is your chance to turn that around by gaining an email address from every customer who visits you in store—or contacts you online—with the clear quid pro quo:

Trust us with your address and we’ll only use it to tell you what we’re doing to ensure you can shop COVIDsafely with us—no spam, no guerrilla marketing. And we want you to tell us what your concerns are about shopping with us too.

It’s just simple two-way customer engagement. Abuse it at your peril. Do it right and relationships will develop for pay off, as customers become fans who then become advocates too. Get it wrong and your reputation will suffer. Now’s the time for professional service. Quick buck gimmicks will not cover your rent while the economy slips further into recession.

Put your reputation above everything

All it will take to destroy your reputation is for your business to become a source of Covid-19 spread. One city corporate head office; one famous restaurant; one popular shopping mall—and it’s over for everyone.

Cram diners into your cafes, pack shoppers at your registers, fail to clean your merchandise, let your staff work while sick—all it will take is one community infection tied to you, to close you forever.

Two McDonald’s stores, as of writing, in Victoria—already earning the headline, “Hundreds of McDonald’s workers in self isolation”—aren’t going to sow confidence in the Golden Arches’ drive-thrus. Yesterday, we also learned of a Myer department store in a large shopping mall closed to a staff infection. Myer had only begun growing profit in 2019 after a decade of struggle.

Become the source of a Covid cluster and your brand is likely finished. Therefore, pay heed to everything you do on the shop floor and behind the scenes.

If your casual waiting staff were using the same cloth to partially wipe tables at your eatery in pre-Covid-19 days, your patrons will not re-frequent you if they see it today. Now’s the time to take staff training and supervision seriously. Take every customer comment and complaint at face value and act on them.

Neglect this and your goodwill—your business—is gone. In the next couple of months, the truth will finally cotton on that the hoaxers’ blasé:

Give me liberty or give me death!

Doesn’t hold rhetorical sway against a pandemic organism.

*****

And that’s pretty much the final message here. The world is barely three months into its response to a pandemic without treatment or cure.

Let your bravado take control as governments acquiesce to loosened reigns at the behest of tycoons and you’ll help bring the entire global economic edifice crashing down with them.

Here’s the ultimate tip: People will only spend money with you if they are alive and well. And alternately, if you become Covid sick, what does it matter how much money you take from them while your lungs fall apart whether or not you die?

Be safe—communicate your unrelenting care for COVIDsafety—then act safely—and you could just survive what’s going to be at least another year-long ride in hell.

We are nowhere close to being out of this mess yet, and if you think governments are pushing forward too early out of fear, you’re right. Except that it’s you and not their mogul backers who are on the frontline.

When I wrote my last article “Why Social Distancing Will Fail in Australia” earlier this week, the country had little inkling that just a couple of days later, the Federal Government would initiate a plan called a “3 Step Framework for a COVIDsafe Australia”.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison expressed frustration with his nation in lockdown and was now acquiescing to calls to get businesses humming again.

And on paper it was a reasonable plan, for each State and Territory was free to decide when and what to implement—and the whole was underwritten by an agreement that Australians would adhere to social distancing to make it a success.

Well, Australia’s most populous States, Victoria and New South Wales, had not yet signed on: their infections were the highest in the country and they urged caution. Therefore, their Level 3 lockdowns remained in place which read, “Stay at home unless necessary”.

But it didn’t matter. For around the country, today—Saturday—thousands flocked to shopping malls and showed zero concern for social distancing.

As I predicted.

Rather, they swarmed in crowds of frenzy goaded all the way by a business lobby on the airwaves, pestering governments to “open up for the good of the economy”.

The results were pictures posted on Twitter today and reported on the nightly news, of the complete disregard on the part of business owners and mall managers for compliance with their COVIDsafe obligations.

I hope some lawyers are paying attention, because the potential for a class action is now biting at the bit.

For after just 1 day, we now get to wait 14 more to see what health damage the most infectious virus in modern history will bring to those crowds now in their homes—or maybe in one of those “small restaurants” now permitted to open too.

A perfect storm of stupidity. Worse than Bondi Beach.

Australia’s social distancing-based economic plan has utterly failed in its first 24 hours. It was completely foreseeable. It was comically badly implemented.

Someone will need to be held accountable, while its politicians and planners retract it, re-evaluate it and regroup.

The average room in an Australian abode is 3 metres tall. Now ask someone to project that vision flat on the ground and tell you where they need to stand to be approximately 1.5 metres apart.

Most won’t get it right for a number of reasons. Firstly, they’re terrible at math and won’t know the answer means standing at the two extremes of that plane. Secondly, they just won’t believe the answer—because nowhere in their lives, during the Covid-19 lockdown or prior, have they ever had to consistently experience it.

Not queuing up for Job Seeker assistance, nor in the isles of their supermarket; not walking a path in a crowded park, nor in the good old days on public transport. Definitely not at home particularly given the living space of older houses and the newest apartments cramming as many shoe boxes per floor for a buck.

Then comes the crux.

Not due to the mixed messaging of governments telling them that social distancing is so important, you don’t need it in schools. You definitely don’t need it if you’re Donald Trump. You don’t need it if you’re protesting. And you don’t need it debarking a ship-of-death for your plane flight home.

You also don’t need it if you’re on field playing rugby or football so long as you’re generating TV and ad revenue along the way.

Nah, sport doesn’t influence social behaviour at all.

And given that the official message of Covid-19 is that it’s a disease of the aged and infirm—you definitely don’t need it if you’re fit, 40 or younger.

And that’s why the stupidity of crowds at Bondi Beach forced New South Wales into a true lockdown over April. And this weekend we’ve seen parks overflowing in Queensland and house parties flouting assembly laws as lockdowns have begun to ease. We’ve seen religious groups of all faiths seeking congregations. And most insidious of all—we’ve heard calls by China-centric billionaires to bring all lockdowns to an end.

After all, the Australian government’s COVIDapp will only warn you if you’ve been in proximity of a known Covid carrier for 15-minutes or longer. What difference does it make if you’ve rubbed shoulders in a shopping centre for 10?

And that’s how you lose a war.

We are at war: with a killer virus that has no treatment or cure. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again using Australia as the example, States do not fight wars. Only nations do. That requires 1 leader, 1 overriding strategy and 1 message for the troops. It’s ok for generals to fight with their supreme leader behind closed doors, but it never reaches the front. That’s because confused soldiers don’t use their weapons. Confused soldiers don’t act for their unit’s good. Confused soldiers mutiny. And confused soldiers die.

Australians have been conscripted into a fight for their lives and futures. But they need leadership to first beat their enemy so that they can receive a future to rebuild.

Absent of a treatment or cure, Covid-19 requires them to stay in lockdown for as long as it takes. If they are to live socially distant, then they do it everywhere—at school, at work and in their entertainment.

Australia can survive a year without traditional classroom education, it can survive a season without NRL, AFL and cricket. For goodness sake, what an insult to our 2020 Olympians to think otherwise after they’ve just made the greatest sacrifice of their lives.

Australia can win if its message is simple, consistent and applicable—to all. No more private jet jaunts by media tycoons without isolation in a hotel at the end.

*****

Australia’s Prime Minister, Scott Morrison, is a highly religious man. So, let me change tack to finally sell my argument with a parable and one I believe in too.

I’ll now talk to him.

ScoMo, God helps those who help themselves. Yes, that’s not in the Bible of course, so let’s be more scriptural:

A horse is prepared for the day of battle, but victory comes from the Lord. (Proverbs 21: 31)

You’ve got to climb that horse, ScoMo, and charge so the Lord can do the rest. Or more appropriately, as Joseph said to his brothers who’d sold him into slavery in Egypt:

Now don’t be grieved or angry with yourselves for selling me here, because God sent me ahead of you to preserve life. For the famine has been in the land these two years, and there will be five more years without ploughing or harvesting. God sent me ahead of you to establish you as a remnant within the land and to keep you alive by a great deliverance. Therefore it was not you who sent me here, but God. (Genesis 45: 5-8)

Thusly, you can talk to the electorate about Covid-19:

Do not be angry with yourselves for the burden you’ve placed on me because God sent me knowing there would be a terrible health crisis that would last yet another year. God sent me to keep you alive by a great deliverance. Therefore stay inside.

Which means ScoMo, just keep your message unequivocal. Disseminate it with confidence and stand up to your generals and backers who demand contrary designs.

Nothing good will happen unless you saddle up and ride with fury though a rain of arrows to keep it locked down.

That’s why they say, it’s lonely at the front.

UPDATE MAY 8, 2020—A THREE-STEP RETURN BASED ON BEHAVIOUR

ScoMo this morning, announced the support of the National Cabinet for a phased 3-Step return to some economic normalcy given the presence of Covid-19 that will still persist.

With all 3 steps set to range from now till sometime in July, Step 1 will cautiously see the return of small numbers of friendly gatherings to homes, small cafes reopening and intra-state travel among others.

I’ll give kudos to its planers, as its success and the move on to Step 2 will hinge on Australians showing careful compliance with social distancing, hygiene and testing even if slightly ill. Everything—depends on a commitment to unselfishness on the part of multiple generations.

So, mitigation is built into this model. Each State and Territory will control the phasing in of each step and the ability to “cut and paste” among their menus (that quote from ScoMo). Proper social behaviour will be as critical as the number of new cases showing up in determining each leader’s willingness to free things further along.

This will be true, whether or not July remains a valid timeframe for full implementation. Whereas, I foresee September-October as the more realistic window to first gauge how the rest of the world is faring with their less well-thought-out societal Covid approaches, and the degree of risk they pose to Australia’s front door.

He didn’t take it seriously at first, nor did his chief medical officer but thankfully six weeks after instigating the lockdown and isolation of Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison had slowed the rate of his nation’s Covid-19 infection.

Indeed, it took a measure of cajoling to summon both men into action—particularly the early threats by the premiers of Victoria and New South Wales to go it alone. Yet, soon after that attempted coup, Australia had the closest thing to a wartime government in place—a National Cabinet meeting regularly and voicing the same message. Still, without the pushing of Victoria’s Chief Health Officer, Brett Sutton, in particular Australia’s creep to Level 3 containment—the point at which it finally put itself into an effective lockdown—would have been slower.

Even then, ScoMo made some drastic mistakes. Among them, having banned cruise ships from Australia’s ports, a number of exempted liners within days began docking and offloading their walking dead across the country untested and unmonitored. One ship in particular, the Ruby Princess proved Australia’s greatest disaster so far in this global crisis—a thoroughly preventable infectious blight and one being felt today.

It seemed till now that he’d learned, that ScoMo had realised victory in this fight meant staying the course in the wait for a treatment or vaccine. But no.

Now, he’s on the verge of contradiction yet again under pressure from economic interests, billionaire lobbyists and ego to second-guess prudence.

Taking the cue from US President, Donald Trump, who recently put himself in the role of American dictator, ScoMo suddenly wants his country’s economy powering up again too. He envisages people at offices, in pubs, in schools, on the streets, in shops and at sport with Covid-19 still uncured. All despite the success of his Covid-19 restrictions to date producing a phenomenally low spread rate, an R0, of less than 1 while other countries around the world are reporting 2 to 5.

(A disease’s “R0” or “R-zero” is the measure of the number of people, one carrier of that disease might infect. The R0 of Covid-19 is higher than Influenza’s but Australia’s lockdown has brought them on par, a feat of global envy.)

Surf’s Up Get Ready for the Second Wave

A couple of days ago, Australia’s federal Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Paul Kelly, uttered two phrases unspoken outside think tanks in the Covid-19 fight. Australia, he said, had met “Wave 1” of Covid-19. It was now time to get ready for “Wave 2”.

Something was in the air other than the virus, and of course this meant that Australia was about to lower its Threat Level to meet the prime minister’s economic dream.

Australia was then told that any economic restart depended on a piece of mobile phone software called “COVIDapp”. Forty percent of Australians were going to need to voluntarily download it. And they in turn, would form Australia’s new first line of defence as they allowed themselves to be tracked for proximity to any sources of infection.

It’s just unfortunate that the underlying architecture of COVIDapp was the product of Singapore, a country whose citizens had largely shunned it with an uptake of only 20% and they were now in the grip of their own severe Wave 2.

You see, the problems with ScoMo’s strategy are multiple:

1. We don’t yet know if the app will work in practice or theory—is it meant to track contact with current Covid sufferers? If so, what are they doing outdoors in the first place? If not, how much spread from unknown carriers will occur before they’re triangulated and isolated? By then we could have secondary and tertiary spreads in play.

2. We still know very little about the behaviour of Covid-19 Wave 1. Could Wave 2 change its infection modus operandi, grow its target base to Millennials and children; could it morph into an entirely new strain altogether?

3. We have no data to confirm that surviving Covid-19 builds immunity meaning Wave 1 might still be in play.

We just do not know enough about this virus to do anything other than exercise caution. Conservatism is the only viable strategy.

The Opportunity to Wait and Learn

But we can wait, and waiting doesn’t imply passivity this time around, it also packs a punch—for Australia has at its disposal an unprecedented opportunity to watch its back-to-work strategy play out real time, while another country risks its lives.

Enter Donald Trump again: a man fighting for his electoral life if not, more importantly to him, his egocentric living legacy.

As of writing, along with 65,435 of his citizens (a mortality higher than America’s Vietnam experience—a war that brought down two administrations), Covid-19 has killed his economy and split his already fragile society in a manner unseen since the 1860’s Civil War. Donald Trump is down eight points in a Presidential Race six months away, and he’s likely going to lose office to a man showing signs of senility and possessing a sketchy backstory.

But Trump wants action. He wants no less than an economic miracle born from a free-roaming consumer base—there’s no such thing as a Great Depression when the American President is greater!

More so, in all honesty, he just wants to turn back the clock six months so he can get back on his electoral stump and feed his faithful with his gospel, live.

It’s just that his nation, once the only superpower in the world, is no longer ready to perform. It’s Covid-19 defences have been a screen, it’s hospitals are exhausted, it’s funeral homes are storing rotting dead in unrefrigerated U-Haul trucks.

Nonetheless, some States have already begun shaking loose from their lockdown fetters, notably Texas and Georgia, while the US death toll is still mounting daily.

Thing is, this whole experiment is about to play out 24-7 on live TV. And the prudent among us will recognise this as the time to watch, study and learn.

Only a Fool Would Close His Eyes Now

Scott Morrison has lost sight of reality if he thinks mimicking Trump is a good idea, while the latter’s real time data is pumping out at Australia’s fingertips.

To be blunt, any failure, any substantial Wave 2 will end ScoMo’s political career.

His party will not win the next federal election: Australia’s death toll will be his. His prior mistakes will haunt him. And like Winston Churchill, who actually won a six-year World War for his island nation, Morrison will be tossed aside while a Labor government takes over.

But not if he waits.

If he keeps Australia at Level 3 or 4 while basing his decisions around the fullest data available—if things then go pear-shaped, he’ll have an out.

The world needs just three to four more months to tell it how America has gone. In that time, we will learn whether Trump can survive, whether its deceased will pass into the six-figures, and whether its hopes of manifest destiny are still reality.

And it keeps the printing presses rolling being the only form of Monetary Policy Australia now controls. Money lost its value the day Federal Reserves set 0% interest rates and the United States took its national debt through $20 trillion (it’s now $24T). Countries may as well keep printing paper till Covid-19 is dead and the G20 can sit around a table and start The Great Financial Reconciliation.

The Reality

An app will not protect Australia. It possesses so many practical and theoretical holes that Covid-19 will slip through its grip. The only viable strategy Australia has right now is to wait for a treatment that can render Covid-19 chronic, while scientists work to eradicate it via vaccine.

Until that vaccine arrives hospital bed availability will determine the extent of any return to some semblance of normality. Right now, Covid-19 remains acute, that means a requirement for intensive care and Australia still cannot afford a rush to exhaust those resources. Swine Flu in 2009-10 packed not only a Wave 2 but a Wave 3.

*****

No politician has the right to risk its citizenry for political gain, nor to assuage another country, keep unsustainable business models afloat; nor its stock markets perpetually high.

Now is the time to wait, watch and understand that Old Economies are dead and New Economies need building. Now is the time to encourage a truly capitalist entrepreneurialism to bring the latter about; to look for new ways of finding and serving customers, and new ways of ensuring that a country never again has to rely on a belligerent foreign host for its lifelines. This is a time to picture a world without a Xi regime in China and a China whose competitive strength does not centre solely on cheap labour. This is the time for courage. To actually lead behind the scenes.

That’s all Australia’s Scott Morrison needs to accomplish over the next few months while the United States of America implodes and China begs to stave off revolt both inside and out.