Who’s REALLY Blowing Up Iran?

It just has to be Israel, according to the pundit class. You know, that warmonger Netanyahu. Or maybe it’s us. Maybe it’s Obama, who after all killed bin Laden and Qadaffi, toppled Mubarak and bin Ali, and has proclaimed that “Assad must go.” Who else could be behind the “mysterious” wave of assassination, sabotage and explosions all over the country, from military bases to factories, from pipelines carrying natural gas to the Turks to automobiles in downtown Tehran carrying nuclear physicists to or from work?

Until recently, I was the only one writing about the systematic campaign of sabotage. Now it’s all the rage.

The latest attack against a major Iranian target came a few days ago against a plant that manufactures “special steel” that is used, inter alia, for nose cones and other parts of missiles. It’s the fourth major attack in the past couple of months, three of which you’ve probably read about, and one which has largely escaped notice. The three you know are the steel plant three days ago, the monster blast at Karaj on November 12th, and the explosion on November 28th at a military complex at Isfahan. The one you didn’t hear about took place on yet another military facility in Khorramabad, near the Iraqi border, a couple of days after Karaj.

And then there are “minor” events, such as a couple of Basij gunned down in Balouchistan the other day.

Before we get to the whys and wherefores, a bit of detail: the huge detonation at Karaj, which, as I have explained, surprised the attackers and distorted our understanding. The operation was aimed at the Revolutionary Guards Corps, specifically at General Hassan Tehrani Moghadam, who was both the architect of the national missile program and one of the nastiest officials in that legendarily nasty organization. The attackers did not know that there was a large quantity of rocket fuel on the base that day (which was the reason Moghadam was there). The special fuel came from North Korea, and it was supposed to double tne range of Iran’s missiles. The explosion that killed Moghadam and scores of his comrades ignited the rocket fuel, with dramatic results. To date, 377 dead have been reported to the supreme leader’s office. Among the dead are the attackers–they couldn’t escape the big explosion–and at least four North Korean officials, who were there for the celebration.

The attackers came from the internal opposition, and so far as I know they had no ties to any foreign anything, not a foreign intelligence service, not a foreign military organization, not a foreign government.

Of course, as always with things Iranians, you’ve got to caveat what you think you know. It wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been misinformed. But, on the other hand, I’ve been a lonely voice for quite a while, saying that the opposition (call it the Green Movement, for lack of an updated logo) would become more violent, that the movement was, if anything, more powerful than it was at the time of the big demonstrations a year and two years ago, and that the regime was full of opposition sympathizers and collaborators.

Because it’s obvious that whoever’s blowing up Iran, they’ve got a lot of help from some very important insiders. Don’t take it from me; ask Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. He knows that if his enemies can blow up those installations, they can blow up most anything. Of late, Khamenei hasn’t been particularly active in public events. Like his buddy, Hezbollah chief Nasrullah, he’s keeping his head down and his profile low.

Not that Khamenei has taken vows of solitude and silence. He’s fired several top Revolutionary Guards generals and colonels. Al Arabiya and other lovers of fairy tales would have us believe that Khamenei was the target of the Karaj bombing, and therefore he purged the Guards. But Khamenei wasn’t the target (there was no reason to believe he would attend the ceremony; after all, he didn’t even show up for the inauguration of the Bushehr nuclear plant), and while some of the Guards were indeed fired because of the bombings–they came from the counter-intelligence and “defense” organizations who are supposed to protect such facilities–others were fired because of their involvement in the burgeoning financial scandal. Other “analysts” suggest that Khamenei’s son had joined President Ahmadinejad in trying to kill the old man, but there is nothing to it. Ahmadinejad might well want Khamenei to reach paradise with all due speed, but he wasn’t involved in this affair.

The sources upon whom I rely for such information tell me there is more to come, and I’m sure that the supreme leader believes just that. He may not know the provenance of the army amassed against him and his regime, and he may well convince himself, as our own entrail readers have convinced themselves, that he is under siege from the satanic forces in Washington and Jerusalem. But I don’t believe it. Maybe–probably, even-Stuxnet. I don’t think the Greens are up to that one. Maybe, if you insist, some of the assassinations of the physicists, although I rather suspect they were suspected of disloyalty and were rubbed out by the regime.

But this is a major campaign, and I think it represents the revenge of the Iranian people against their torturers, murderers and oppressors.

Who could blame them?

UPDATE: Thanks to Tom Wilson for the nice mention and good discussion. http://www.thecommentator.com/article/735/who_is_really_fighting_the_covert_war_against_the_regime_in_iran_

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1.
Tblakely

You’d think this would make a killer Hollywood movie, but what are the odds?

….agreed….and will put on my Serious-Hat right now to add that I was too hasty and overlooked the Hollywood knee-jerk-celebrity-mentality-value-filter which that intricate and existing Asian-war plot would have had to survive. It’s been going on now for ten years after a sneak attack in an undeclared war against American soil killing a like number of us Americans as were killied by the Japanese that Sunday in December 1941, which hopefully some readers here will remember.
So this is an opportune place to ask….Where are the pro-America-patriotic-morale-sustaining Hollywood movies using the literally explosive theme of Islamic Terror? This is not a rhetorical question.

Two sneak attacks, two undeclared Wars….at least for enough time at the outset of the attack in 1941 for our President Roosevelt, no shrinking violet of a Liberal for that time, to deliver the very next day in an angry ringing patrician phrase…that phrase…..”A day which will live in Infamy”.

I simply cannot understand the present day avoidance of saying out loud and in in public that we are indeed in a war against radical, belligerent, infiltrating, subversive Islam.

For those who hide behind the skirts of the idea that Islam is not a “Nation”, I’d posit that Islam is indeed a “Nation”, a somewhat dormant one containing sub-nations artificially confined at the present inside colonial era hand drawn borders. See that Sykes-Picot Agreement and the divvying up of the Ottoman Caliphate Empire’s territory as they were on the losing side in the First World War.

The unifying aspect of the temporarily shattered Ottoman Empire was Islam. The unifying aspect of our present day enemy is Islam, and the unifiers are the Imams of the intra-squabbling sects, which, when they get their act together will present a formidable organized bloc-base for Islamic Terrorism the likes of which we’ve not yet seen.

And so we’re playing our political games, averting our eyes, and looking in all the wrong directions.

Perhaps we don’t want Hollywood dealing with this subtle new cellular warfare, after all. In this present-day case it’s best they confine their camera crews to directing Lady Gaga.

I wonder how much the Kurds have to do with any of this? If they are rebelling against the mullahs, it could be opening a huge front against Tehran. And I wonder if we’re helping any of them with money, weapons, or training? Seems like the most recent attacks were well inside Iran, so the Kurds probably did not have anything to do with it. But if the Kurds see that the mullahs are starting to lose their grip inside of Iran, maybe they will start giving a lot of problems to Tehran in the north, especially in the mountains? Maybe.

To crush the opposition to the Mullahs some 90% of the Iranian people will have to be vaporized. And if the day comes that the Mullahs feel imminent existential threat they are quite capable of such a genocide. Three schools of thought are capable of commiting genocide without a twinge of remorse or guilt. Those who hold with certainty of opinion that specific groups as the cause of all ills that have befallen mankind, such as Hitler. Second are those who are convinced that there exists no higher power to whom they will answerable for their atrocities such as Stalin. Finally those who know with certitude that the Almighty has sanctioned their acts in slaughtering infidels, such as the monsters in charge of Iran.

If there is one thing the alphabet agencies in the USA know how to do is destabilize a nation, going back to Columbia and creation of Panama…its a long list. Of course it is the USA tossing monkey wrenches into the mix, who else. We support, provide technology, intelligence, weaponry, explosives, training…its a package deal.

Israel does not have the Technology for some of these strikes, and we keep sending up XB-37 type craft that do god knows what.

This administration does drone strikes, because it’s like a video game, and it feels “clean” to the moral lightweights setting policy. Human intelligence and moving arms, money and supplies is not something this administration would authorize unless there was a domestic political payoff, and they have gone out of their way to make sure that Iran is not a domestic political issue.

In a way, it is a good thing Assad hasn’t been overthrown yet because it means some of the Mullah’s best intel (people and equipment) is still being used to support Assad and isn’t available to help pinpoint the anti Mullah forces.

If this is true then there is real hope that we could end up with a westward-leaning government in Iran. If our next president handles the situation properly, he could well go down in history as presiding over the creation of a lasting peace in the middle east.

Iran falling will not in and of itself lead to peace in the Middle East. You have a whole new set of problems developing with the Arab spring and the extremists it is bringing in now.
You have the Pakistani government becoming more involved with China and wanting less to do with the U.S. and there hasn’t been peace in the middle east since the start of recorded history, why is it going to start in the next four years?

If Pakistan became a total satellite of China–hell, even if they were *annexed* by China–it would be a terrific improvement over what prevails there now. At least then they’d be stable. Plus China is pretty good at keeping Islam in check; just ask the Uighurs.

While the fall of the current iranian regime in and of itself won’t cause peace, there is a real chance that if the situation is handled delicately and properly, the new regime will be more westward-leaninig. Given that most of the evil in the region is being funded by the current Iranian regime, the re is the real possibility of a paradigm shift.

…..While the fall of the current iranian regime in and of itself won’t cause peace, there is a real chance that if the situation is handled delicately and properly, the new regime will be more westward-leaninig.”

“““““““`
……certainly the chances for that are indeed pretty slim. I say that because Islam is our enemy (see my comment above) and it’d seem that Persian varieties of Islam are still going to remain prickly enough to prevent much Westward-leaning….the other sects will goad them into toeing the Koran-Line, accusing the Iranians of…what is it..apostasy?

Yes, the Iranians will like Western money for their oil….if they think we’re cowering under their atomic-nuclear threat….. But, I think long run that no area under the heavy thumb of Islam, any varietal-sect of Islam, will ever be westward leaning.

We’ve only to look and see what “elections” have wrought in Egypt, we must cross our fingers at “elections” in Iraq and Afghanistan, and face the fact that “democracy” is simply too alien a concept for much of Central/West Asia.

This is why I think that the English Speaking Union will eventually be the best bastion against Islam. Europe is now too contaminated with emergent Muslim/Islamic sharia-law,

Irrational paranoia and hatred are not limited to the Iranian leaders. In one example from recent news the municipality of Tehran, by popular demand, destroyed a memorial dome because some viewers were able to discern the hated Star of Zionism in the geometric pattern.

Occam’s Razor tells me that it’s far more likely that the people in the programs themselves are the ones committing these acts of sabotage. Iran has had major difficulties doing more than creating Potemkin Village weapons systems–How many of these things over the years have actually been produced, let alone fielded?

More than likely, the poor bastards whose heads are on the chopping block if they can’t produce a nuke or effective guided missile are staging these “attacks” in an attempt to put off the day of reckoning when they have to admit that they haven’t been able to produce what was demanded of them.

Similar things have happened in other totalitarian regimes. I’ve heard rumors that the infamous Nedelin disaster at Baikonur may have been a case where something akin to this took place–Only it got out of hand, resulting in more damage than planned.

I could be wrong, but I think Nedelin was the result of competition between the great Korolev, and his competitors-Korolev wanted to stick with a safer rocket fuel , rather than the “devil’s venom” the rivals were using.After Nedelin, he got more support from the government again, and was able to keep “his” program running.
A great book that touches on this incident is “Space Race” by Deborah Cadbury.This book is an excellent read, and fills in a lot of the gaps in the history of the Soviet race to the moon.

It can’t be us Americans, our CIA presence in Lebanon was taken out a few weeks ago. If an Iranian backed terrorist organization (Hezballah) did that then the direct work of counter-intelligence within the Iranian security apparatus would be able to oust CIA presence within Iran. Mr. Ledeen is right, it must be the internal Iranian opposition planning and succeeding with these attacks and sabotage operations because our own intellignece agency (that which we know about publicly) is not up to these kinds of tasks unless they are given the support like they receive in Jordan or Iraq. I also think that Obama (Bush wasn’t either) is NOT willing to anger Iran and neither he nor his top adminisration members would order these types of operations to be conducted.

Mr. Ledeen, as our Jewish friends are prone to say, From your lips to God’s ear. I have been following things in Iran since the 2009 selection. I cheered on the “Greenies” during their demonstrations and have been giving what little encouragement I can since. I do so hope you are right about it being the Iranian people themselves doing this. I can’t think of a more deserving people to finally see true peace and freedom.

I truly believe if they can topple this regime, things will change all over the Middle East. So far as I have seen, the people of Iran hold no animosity toward the West or Israel. In fact, just the opposite. The people themselves have seen through all the propaganda they get from the regime. If they can get rid of the Mullahs that are suppressing them and set up a free and honest form of government they could be our best hope in that quagmire rivaling only Israel as our best friend there.

Even if the mullahs are chased out/overthrown, the new government will be a new version of the old government. The new constitution will be based on sharia, the election will vote in a bunch muslim brotherhood types, they will impose a one man, one vote, one time system and the next dictator will emerge.

It’s important to understand that there was a highly sophisticated Persian culture hundreds of years before and after Islam was “introduced” (6th Century). Certainly Persia/Iran is an Islamic country, but before 1979, Persian/Iran culture was vibrant and strong with women playing a major role.

After 1979, that all changed with a radical, apocalyptic version of Shia Islam being forced on what was until then a proud, liberal (notwithstanding the SAVAK) people. The 1979 Iranian revolution was hijacked by a fundamentalist Khomeni (just like Libya and Egypt are).

Now, you are seeing the same dynamic as in 1979…proud, liberal Iranians (yes Muslims but also cognizant of their Persian history) fighting for their freedom from fundamentalist oppression. We see the same dynamic in Afghanistan.

Libyans and Egyptians will following this road in 20-30 years…after they get fed-up with the Salafists.

Nothing has really changed. The regime has the guns, organization and terror apparatus. The good guys don’t. Not only that the good guys want to live free, not die martyrs. The only way the Mullahs are leaving is by being ousted in a US military invasion. Both the Mullahs and good guys know it, hence the likelihood of another hopeless Iranian revolt seems unlikely. Occasional acts of sabotage are not a threat to the regime but are a threat to the underground carrying out the attacks.

We all know what the likelihood of a US invasion is under the current absolute screw-up in chief is.

some of the elite are true believers, others are stashing their money in china or canada and keep making new plane reservations…still others, as we see, are helping the opposition and are hoping to be protected when the kababs hit the fan.

I don’t buy it, far too many of these attacks are of professional quality. A Magnetic limpet mine was used in one of the assasinations. I also doubt that the rocket fuel would have detonated without an initiating charge in direct contact. While many of the foot soldiers are likely Iranians, these attacks are being orchestrated by one or more intelligence organizations. The “Activity” may well be on the job now that Iraq and Afghanistan are winding down. But I think it’s mostly Israel buying time and hoping for something good to happen.

so Michael, doesn’t this mean the US should help the Green Revolution, as we were apparently unwilling to do back in 2009 (when Neda should have won the Peace Prize instead of our foolish president)?

I just don’t understand a foreign policy that tells Mubarek and Kaddafi to go, but is fine with Ahmadinejad and Assad (or “Assad the reformer” as Sec. Clinton would say). come to think of it, this same Obama foreign policy becomes furious with Netanyahu for wanting to build apartments in Jewish Jerusalem, but actively approves of Hamas and Fatah.

btw to Walt C: hey, don’t worry about the Muslim Brotherhood. Obama’s Director of National Intelligence, James “Clap On” Clapper, says they are “largely secular.” whew! I guess that “Muslim” in their name is just for show, eh James?

Great Scott NorthernBorder, hurt Ahmadinejad!? he is worth a fortune to our side in propaganda alone. Suppose he got replaced by someone suave, debonair and sexy, what then? Think Israeli, if you can’t have friends at least have enemies who are complete idiots.

Interestingly, I saw a supposed expert on the region being interviewed on Sun TV (“Fox News North” in Canada but farther right and very outspoken). He offered interesting insights and was obviously very knowledgable except he was convinced that all these incidents bear the fingerprints of Mossad.

This would be one of the best arguments for the U.S. and Israel NOT attacking the nuclear facilities. It would be far better if this regime were overthrown internally than for an external attack to unify the Iraqis. (We have no guarantee that this will occur, so waiting for that is a risk. But the possibility of that happening should indeed be a consideration.)

There has been an intense discussion in Israel as to what actions to take. About 50/50 for bombing.
The ex-Mossad chief came very strongly against bombing for a number of reasons.

1. We should wait till the very last moment in order to get international approval.

2. We are absolutely surrounded by tens of thousand of missiles (45 thousand across the road from me in Lebanon, but also Hamas, Syria(?) including gas and from Iran itself. The population here continuously trains for getting to shelters, checking sirens and gas attacks.(like the blaze Israelis we are – we usually just ignore it) There is a rumor that land has been set aside for mass graves. So although we may destroy the program apparently it may be very costly.I am sure there is a plan but as a vet I remember many incredible plans that didn’t work in my various wars. Israel has for years with the help of America been planning an attack for years.

3 One thing that hasn’t hit the headlines was when Iran was looking for a supplier of special steel for their centrifuges they could fing a supplier. Eventually they found an agent who was prepared to supply them. They built the centrifuges – but when they started using them they self-destructed destroyed the whole section of the plant, Turns out the agent was from the Mossad and the steel 3rd grade
4. The apparent concept for the “waits” is that we can push back their completion date by tricks which apparently has been happening – until regime change takes place – which could very well happen.
5 BB and Barak ( defense min) are for bombing soon. Barak says there wont be more than 500 fatalities. (as for as I am concerned ‘one is too many’ (to quote the Canadian immigration official when Jews were looking for escape)
6 Iran is just one country but have many tribes, ethnic groups and religions. Some loathe the regime and indeed would make excellent soldiers for all of us.
Apparently the regime has only 30% support.

“Apparently the regime has only 30% support.”
Perhaps even less than 30%.
And those 30% or less consist of nothing but their “revolutionary guards and foot soldiers” plus their families who shamelessly are rolling rich in the country’s stolen petro dollars. These 30% will cling to their stolen riches with tight teeth and with their lives, unless their own lives are seriously under attack and threatened. Then they will all get the money out like Gaddafi did and run away before borders close on them.

At this point the power struggle among the elites is nothing but the classic internal fury and war that happened way too many times in history, for the purpose of holding onto power and accumulated stolen wealth amid uncertain external threats.

All we need for victory against this barbaric regime is a serious consistent down push and pressure while strengthening their arch enemy which is the Iranian nation. But unfortunately we are not doing that now. The appeasing policies of this administration sends wrong messages to the regime plus Clinton’s cat and mouse game with the mullahs is fast becoming old and boring. We need fresh blood in the White House and the State Dept. Hopefully the next admin will have the will power and wits to undo all the damages that Obama has done so far and push for the down fall of this dangerous regime, regardless of what Russia and China demand!!!

As an Iranian, I have a bad feeling about what’s happening to my motherland. I just wish to see more assassination and more internal explosion rather than seeing a full blown attack against Iran oh god, can I wake up one day and read the news “Islamic regime was torn down by national army’s coup”

Micael
During the period of the Shah the people of our 2 countries were very close friends. Even today we often get messages that nothing has changed all that much in these feelings. Yes I do pray that we or the usa can remove this menace without any unnecessary fatalities.
from your friend, Israeli

Although I agree with the substance of what you have said, politely, I need to make one correction. You said that during the Shah’s reign our people were close friends (I am also an Iranian). Clearly the Shah wanted a close relationship with Erez Israel. In fact we even had an embassy in Tel Aviv. But the friendship of the Iranian people with the Jewish people, although ecnouraged by the Shah, was not a modern phenomenon. It is a friendship that goes all the way back to the Aechamenian period and Cyrus (Kor, before it was helenized into Cyrus) the Great. The people of Iran, for the most part, are still friends of Erez Israel but they have been hijacked by evil incarnate. As an Iraeli you need to know, and let everyone in your home know that there exists no better friends to Israel than the people of Iran. It is a natural and organic friendship facing a common enemy that threatens you everyday and has conquered my country of birth. May I take this opportunity to thank your people for such immense contributions to humanity and may I also join you in mourning for those you have lost in the hands of barbarians to whom the current leaders of Iran pay homage.

to her and her uncle Mordechai. they’re buried together. FYI, the Book of Esther is the first in the Bible in which the Almighty does not make an appearance…the survival of the Jews was entirely in human hands. that’s the Purim story.

All of yhis “information” IS quite interesting BUT just only gives strength to the opinion of the FOUNDERS of this country. That would be THAT WE stay out of
“foreign entanglements”. I am an 80 yr old history teacher and find it very irritating that Newt Gingrich calls himself a historian!!! The American people have NEVER been pushed into war unless they were “convinced” that we had been attacked. 1) “Remember the Maine” our ship blown up in Havana harbor leading to the Spanish-American War 2) “remember the Luisatania” an American tourist vessel sunk by a German u-boat after Churchall got them to carry ammunition to
Britain leading to WW! Woodrow Wilson had just been re-elected on the slogan “he kept us out of war” 3) FDR KNEW the Japanese were going to attack Pearl Harbor –Remember? so we HAD to defend ourselves. 4) lbj arranges the “Tonkin Bay Incident” so that we Had to respomd??!! The people fought against him so that he “pulled out politically” and we lost money and men IN VIETNAM –MY BROTHER WAS BROUGHT HOME IN A BOX! 5) G Bush convinced the voters that we MUST respond to “Weapons of Mass Destruction” –now look what a mess we are in !!!!! BANKRUPT with dead and wounded in the thousands!!

Ron Paul is the only one that will tell us the truth but the rest of the WARHAWKS will get the nomination since that is the ESTABLISHMENT position.

Ron is the only LOGICAL PERSON FOR PRESIDENT. I WON’T VOTE FOR ANY OF THE OTHERS!!!

This 80 year old has seen some of this history you’ve rather glibly synthesized nearby, but in different lights.

I’d rather define Geo. Washington’s caution on “foreign entanglements” to be those he was famililar with in his time (I wasn’t there then either)…..not like those in our time called now “unintended consequences” rearing up after we honorably have entered two World Wars, Viet Nam (remember those “dominos”?) in the face of Red China’s Dragon’s claws being extended….I lived in Hong Kong during those awful ninteen sixties and so necessarily developed a more local viewpoint….and Iraq….yes….most definirely in search of WMD’s after Saddam had used lethal gas against the Kurds, and one of those UN agencies, I forget which one, had what they considered at that time to be strong evidence of as yet undiscovered WMD’s, and Saddam’s known (not supposed) desire for nuclear capability…. and lastly, that most of the allies’ major intelligence agencies also cited Saddam’s general interest in obtaining more WMD’s.

I’ve no way of knowing, of course, but there’s an awful lot on sand in Iraq. Where will you start digging?

Don’t be so quick to criticize those terrible options of the past if you’re not privy to the details discussed inside the loop. I’m not implying that I was, “don’t misunderstand me”, but I was very near a much different different press and radio. No Walter Cronkite or CBS News at 7PM. out there.

…..lastly….think of what might have been the results inside Cuba had the then President Kennedy not cancelled the combat air support at the height of the vulnerability of “our” trained Cubans landing there on the beach at that Bay of Pigs…..had they, in fact, been able to move inland and actually instigate their fellow countrymen’s uprising/revolt against Castro inside Cuba itself. Tough call.

I wonder what “History” is being tought now to our adolescents in the Public Schools.

there is an opposition within the regime’s armed forces that wants regime change and also wants to prevent a nuclear armed Islamic Republic, US can change the regime in collaboration with the opposition, specially the Iranian armed forces that are mostly against the mullahs, but can’t mobilize without support and commitment from the free world (Obama doesn’t have the balls for that, instead of reaching out to the real enemies of mullahs, the iranian people, he keeps flirting with the enemies)