Geelong Cats – The past and the future

William Shakespeare penned (or quilled in that time) this in Romeo and Juliet and, although that was way back in 1597, the question is just as relevant as we enter the 2016 AFL season (something I’m sure Shakespeare had in mind when he wrote Romeo and Juliet).

The name in question?

Patrick Dangerfield.

Shakespeare said, following the aforementioned line, ‘That which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet‘. Patrick Dangerfield may be called a Geelong Cat now, but his game is no less damaging, or no less desirable, as it was when he was called an Adelaide Crow.

In fact, it’s arguably even more important to the Cats than it was to the Crows. How so? We’ll get to that shortly, but the fact of the matter is Dangerfield, the jewel in Geelong’s 2015 glittering trade period crown, has left ajar the premiership window that, by the end of 2015, looked to be finally slamming shut after an era of glory.

The old English proverb ‘cats have nine lives‘ proved prophetic in 2015, as Geelong lost its bid for its tenth straight finals series. Injury most certainly played a part, but at some point it must be put to one side, leaving harsh realities to be faced. The fact that will hurt most is, when it came to attack, the Cats’ once mighty roar was resigned to little more than a whimper.

2015 saw the Cats produce their fewest amount of points since 2003. Furthermore, the famous ‘Geelong Highway’ counter attack became, like many other facets of this once great outfit, a thing of the past. Thanks to Champion Data, we can track the Cats’ downward spiral in this area: from 2011 to 2014, the Cats scored from oppostion turnovers 62% of the time, making them the only side in the AFL to achieve above 60%. 2015 saw them at 55% for the same stat, relegating them from first to the fifth worst in the AFL.

Geelong, to their credit, have not shied away from the fact their once-near-impenetrable aura was anything but in 2015, but this doesn’t make their fall any less vivid in the minds of Cats fans.

So, what went right, and what went wrong?

2015 left the Cats feeling deflated, after missing the finals for the first time in ten years (Image source – Triple M – Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Media)

The positives

What can be salvaged from a poor 2015 season?

Perhaps the willingness of Chris Scott and his fellow coaching staff to opt for the younger over the older player if it came down to the wire meant many of its youth brigade went some way towards bridging the glaring gap between themselves and the club’s premiership heroes like Joel Selwood, Harry Taylor, Corey Enright and more.

Key among the improvers was Mark Blicavs, whose development of game smarts has been no less remarkable than his positional flexibility on game day. The first 11 rounds saw him as a genuine midfielder, averaging 19 disposals and ranking third at the club for contested possessions and clearances. The backend of the season then saw him become the club’s number one ruckman. In general play, his pressure ranks ‘elite’ in Champion Data, and is fourth best at the club, typifying a man working at 110% to make up for lost time. A Best and Fairest winner in 2015 proved the exclamation mark for his frightening potential.

Mark Blicavs continues to improve, capped off last year by winning the Carji Greeves Medal – image source (The Age), Getty Images

Steven Motlop was another Cat who kicked it up a notch, becoming the number one player of all mid-forwards in the competition for uncontested possessions, and third for metres gained. Furthermore, he became the only mid-forward in the competition to average more than 20 disposals and one goal. But perhaps the most impressive stat, especially for Cats fans and the club’s coaching staff, is the improvement of his defensive game, which saw him average a career high 38 pressure points per game.

Steven Motlop continues to improve, and took his game to another level in 2015 (Image Source – Triple M – AFL Media)

Although injury will feature as a negative, it was the returns from injury offering a shining light in a bleak 2015. Daniel Menzel, in particular, was otherworldly. Ask a Cats fan what they thought of his return match against Collingwood and they may very well claim not since Jesus had there been a return so storied. His return after 1450 days and four knee reconstructions saw him kick four goals and gather a career-high 20 disposals. That the last round of the season saw him play with Josh Cowan and Nathan Vardy for the first time since Round 11, 2011 shows that, although 2015 was cause for concern, there are good things ahead should injury not rear its ugly head at the young talent in the Cattery.

As we’ve seen, there are certainly positives the Cats can take from season in which they dropped down to 10th.

But they didn’t miss out on finals because of any injustice or fluke. To quote Alistair Clarkson, the Cats simply weren’t “Tough enough, hard enough for long enough”.

Their 2015 season saw them peter out at the coalface, ranking 13th for contested possessions, 17th for hit-outs, and 18th for clearances.

Injury left the Cats struggling towards the finish line, when they could only salvage one victory in their last four games. Mitch Duncan and Rhys Stanley threatened to breakthrough to the elite level, but their efforts were cruelly cancelled out by long-term injuries.

Furthermore, the return of Josh Cowan came, coincidentally, in the same match as Menzel’s return, but unlike Menzel, Cowan’s was a night to forget, having to be subbed out 12 minutes in with a hamstring injury. It was indicative of a year where the Cats simply couldn’t put it all together for long enough to contend with the best.

Mitch Clark continues to be a huge question mark moving forward, as he battles with mental illness and yet another injury. The club won’t rush him back, and rightly so, but the forward support he could lend to Tom Hawkins would be invaluable.

From a statistical standpoint, it was Duncan’s injury that hurt most. The Cats won all six games where he had 20 or more disposals, and lost four of the five in which he didn’t.

Mitch Duncan’s loss was emblematic of a year gone wrong for the Cats (Image Source – SEN)

Perhaps the game to sum up the Cats’ disappointing 2015 was their Round 12 encounter with Melbourne. Playing at Simmonds Stadium against a team unable to beat them there for 10 years, the result of the match seemed a foregone conclusion, thus leaving the majority of focus on Corey Enright as he played the 300th game in his remarkable career. Instead, it was a nightmare-come-true for Cats fans, as they were soundly beaten by a team they had beaten by a whopping 186 points at the same ground four years earlier. This, arguably more than anything else, was a sign of the Cats’ fall from the lofty heights they had maintained for so long.

Corey Enright’s 300th game didn’t go as planned in a year where nothing much did (Image Source – Triple M – AFL Media)

Geelong’s 2016 Preview – Highway to the ‘Danger’zone?

There are many critics who have criticised the optimism currently pouring out of Kardinia Park. After all, Patrick Dangerfield, while incredibly talented, is only one player, and surely one player cannot turn around a club on the downhill?

What’s in a name?

Well… a lot.

Although Zac Smith, Lachie Henderson and Scott Selwood are all handy recruits who’ll play a part in the Cats clawing their way back up the ladder, it’s Dangerfield who is the cause for most optimism.

It was the worst-kept secret of the season, but Cats fans were still pinching themselves when ‘Danger’ donned the blue and white hoops (Image Source – The Chronicle – Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

2015 was a season where, although the youth brigade went some way towards bridging it, the gap between skipper Joel Selwood and the rest was as glaring as it ever has been.

To highlight how heavy this reliance was, consider the following:

Selwood has gathered 873 contested possessions in the last three years, which is 334 more than the next player at the club… who happens to be Steve Johnson

54% of Selwood’s posessions were contested in 2015, higher than any other year in his career

Selwood won 19% of Geelong’s clearances, which ranks as the second-highest percentage in the competition

Selwood won 26% of Geelong’s centre clearances, ranked number one in terms of a player’s involvement in their club’s clearances (number two, funnily enough, was Dangerfield)

To put those clearance numbers in perspective, Sam Mitchell won 13% of the Hawks’ clearances, and 14% of centre clearances, which is the second-lowest percentage in the AFL.

Joel Selwood continues to bear the brunt of almost single-handedly carrying the Geelong midfield on his shoulders – image source (The Age), Getty Images

Clearly, spreading the load is a key ingredient of any successful team, and the acquisition of Dangerfield will not only lighten the load Selwood has had to bear for so long, but will strengthen the team in all the areas it desperately needs improved.

As previously mentioned, Geelong ranked 13th for contested possessions in 2015. Dangerfield, in the same category, ranked 3rd best in the competition.

Geelong ranked last in clearances. Dangerfield ranked 7th best in the competition. For centre clearances, he ranked first in the competition.

True, he may only be one man, but what Dangerfield adds to the Cats cannot be valued highly enough, and Joel Selwood would be salivating at the prospect of having, possibly for the first time since Gary Ablett’s departure, a running mate that is his equal or superior in many areas.

Dangerfield’s positives extend beyond Selwood as well. Steven Motlop can, for example, focus less on being battered in the contest in search of the inside ball, and utilise his strengths as an outside runner who thrives off being fed the ball to do his magic.

Furthermore, Dangerfield adds to the 25 – 29 player age bracket Geelong were sorely depleted in for their 2015 campaign. Their commendable 2015 trade period sees them have 11 players in said age bracket and, more importantly, sees these players rank number one for quality in the competition according to Champion Data.

There’s really no end to the amount of positives the Cats can take from the 2015 trade period. In fact, it’s arguable this was the highlight of their 2015.

Geelong’s 2016 Preview – Drooling at the Draw

Both commercial-wise and season-wise, the Cats couldn’t have asked for much more.

From a commercial standpoint, Brian Cook would be thrilled, with the Cats getting four matches under the lights at Simmonds Stadium as opposed to the one they had in 2015.

From a pure football standpoint, the Cats have what Champion Data considers the fourth-easiest draw in the competition, which will see them play the depleted Essendon and slowly building Brisbane Lions twice, and playing none of last year’s top four more than once.

It’s yet another reason why Cats fans are purring on their 2016 prospects.

Geelong’s 2016 Prediction

In a 2015 home-and-away season where not much could go right for the Cats, from the off-season onwards no much could go wrong. The acquisition of Patrick Dangerfield cannot be overplayed enough for the Cats going forward, while new recruits Zac Smith and Lachie Henderson will only bolster the ruck and back stocks even further.

Sure, it remains to be seen whether the likes of Menzel, Vardy, Clark and co can string together a full season, but what was in 2015 a club lacking grit and depth has become one bursting with enthusiasm and potential.

If the new recurits gel with what’s left of the premiership brigade of 2007 – 2011, and the promising young players of last year continue to hone their games, the sky truly is the limit for the Geelong Cats in 2016.

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Comments

Yeah it’s a pretty awesome line up and they played like that at Shepparton but then they were playing a B grade side. All the same they looked really exciting. They look like top four at the very least. And Danger was fantastic, main reason that I went to the game and I wasn’t disappointed.

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