Re: The NHL Thread

I predict there will be hockey starting sometime in December. Why? Because I am a hopeless optimist. I guarantee both Bettman and Fehr know what it will take to resolve it. But massive egos will not allow either one to be the first to blink. So the fans are the ones who suffer along with the integrity of the sport. Assholes.

The league is gonna have a buncha outta shape guys when it finally does start up again. Guys like Penner already struggle with game preparedness. I mostly support the concept of the players who are staying in shape in the European leagues (Kopitar) and the AHL (Dwight King). But I'll be pissed if anyone gets injured doing it.

OTOH, for some players the lockout may be helping a bit. Keep in mind that Quick had surgery during the off season. So for players like him, this is a good chance to re-hab. In fact, here's some good news for ya, scenic

This Will Destroy You| A Place To Bury Strangers| His Name Is Alive| Barry Manilow| Coachella| U2| Aerosmith| Steely Dan/Elvis Costello| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| FYF| Erykah Badu/St Vincent| The Who| Chelsea Wolfe| AC/DC| Garbage| Blur| The Cult/Primal Scream

Re: The NHL Thread

My thoughts on this current lockout.

My understanding of past NHL history is this: in 1994, I was 14 years old and hockey was the hottest thing around. Living in California, we didn't have ice, but I was fortunate to ride the wave of the roller hockey explosion that rippled throughout the West, forever changing the youth sports landscape at the time. The NHL was hot. ESPN had three (3) nights a week of hockey. In 2004, ESPN2 was broadcasting FIVE (5) games per week which affectionately was known as “Fire on Ice”. Things were going great for the NHL.

But, that all changed in 2004 with the NHL lockout of the players. This was the first time a major professional sport lost a complete season because of a labor dispute. TV contracts expired, and the league was largely relegated to second tier sport with few sponsorship, less media coverage, and smaller revenues.

From what I've read, the posturing and offers from both sides about how to split HRR is focused on that-oh it's so big!-$3.3 billion that the league made last year. The owners think that after the lockout, all the fans will continue to spend money as if nothing has happened. And at first, I thought that was cynical and hard to believe. But the truth is, it's happened before. After the 2004-2005 lockout, HRR was largely unchanged. What incentive do the owners have to play fair, if they know the fans will just keep coming back?

Clearly, the league has been building up a lot of buzz in recent years. HRR was growing, the game was gaining popularity, and it seems like, now the owners want a bigger slice of the pie even at the expense of said pie. The fundamental belief that the fans will immediately come back and continue to spend their money as if nothing has happened is at the core of this entire lockout.

Here are some numbers.

HRR in 2003-2004 (the season before the last lockout), was $2.2 billion.

For the following years, HRR was as follows:

* 2005-2006 = $ 2.267 billion

* 2006-2007 = $ 2.436 billion

* 2007-2008 = $ 2.672 billion

* 2008-2009 = $ 2.679 billion

* 2009-2010 = > 2.7 billion

* 2010-2011 = $ 3.3 billion

So we see that HRR was relatively unchanged for the four years after the lockout until the last two years where league revenues begin to climb. It would appear that the growth rate was starting to pick up.

If HRR was $3.3 billion/year in 2010-2011, and the owners were getting 43%, that's $1.42 billion.

And now they want 51% of the pie. Assuming HRR will be at least unchanged, the owners are locking out the players, and potentially canceling the season for an extra $234 million/year.

I don't know how anyone can accurately predict what HRR will be after the lockout. But I think to assume the growth rates over the last couple years to continue would be optimistic. I believe this lockout is killing a lot of the momentum the league had been building the last couple years. I think, a more realistic scenario, is HRR remains unchanged for the next 4-5 years until the fans collectively begin to forget the lockout happened and then we will see the growth rate begin to climb again.

So here is what I propose. The owners are banking on the fact that HRR will continue to grow as if this lockout never happened. It's cynical and insulting, but it's happened before. We, as fans who spend our hard earned money on this game, have one thing we can do: use the power of our wallets. I'm not saying we go on strike or anything. We just need to spend a little less.

Assuming the owners and players arrive at some kind of 50/50 deal, HRR has to drop below $2.9 billion for this gambit by the owners to be a financial net-loss.

Can HRR drop by $400 million/year in the next couple of years? I don't see why not. If we can collectively consciously choose to buy one less beer at the concession stand, one less jersey, one less ticket to a game, our point will be made.

HRR is not Hockey Related Revenue. It is Human Relations Revenue. How the league relates to us and treats us will dictate how much we spend. These cynical ploys and nickel-and-diming must stop.

Re: The NHL Thread

R.I.P. David Courtney.

Our thoughts are with the Courtney family. A wonderful person.

"David was tremendously passionate about the Kings, our fans and the game of hockey. His time with the Kings dates back to the mid 1970s both in our PR office as our public relations director and also with work he did in our video department before he took over full-time Public Announcing duties at the Forum and STAPLES Center. In the arena he was an institution – he was the voice of the Kings – and his work added so much to the live, in-game experience for our fans as it did for the Clippers and Angels as well. Next season would have been David’ 35th year with our franchise, and on behalf of the entire Kings organization and AEG we are incredibly saddened by this news and we send our deepest condolences to his wife Janet and the rest of the Courtney family."

-- Kings President, Business Operations Luc Robitaille

I'm really going to miss his goal announcements and the start of periods... "Ladies and gentlemen, YOUR LOS ANGELES KINGS!". at least his final game was the cup clinching game.

Re: The NHL Thread

NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly issued the following statement regarding the two days of meetings that concluded today with representatives of the NHL Players’ Association under the auspices of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service:

"Today, we concluded two days of mediation with FMCS mediators and representatives of the NHL Players' Association. After spending several hours with both sides over two days, the presiding mediators concluded that the parties remained far apart, and that no progress toward a resolution could be made through further mediation at this point in time. We are disappointed that the mediation process was not successful."

Re: The NHL Thread

I'm not calling myself one of those cautious optimists on this subject, but we're actually a lot closer to getting a new CBA than most people think. If you've been monitoring this and the specific issues closely the past several months they are almost there. Just 3 points left that they still disagree on. This will catch you up to speed:

NEW YORK -- Yes, I still do think a deal will be reached sooner rather than later, and there will be a season. Let’s get that out of the way first.

For all the drama that played out this week, lost in the theatrics was this little fact: the NHL and NHLPA got much closer on an agreement.

Whether or not the emotion gets in the way of a deal, well, that I can’t predict. But purely from a framework basis, this deal is nearly there.

They have essentially agreed on revenue sharing among teams, the players’ pension issues and the make-whole provision.

That leaves three key issues unresolved:

1. CBA Term. The league wants a 10-year deal (with a mutual option after eight years); the union responded with eight years with an option after Year 6. To me this is a red herring. It’s not a deal breaker. Frankly, I think most players don’t really care about this one. One player even suggested to me Friday that this was more a Donald Fehr issue than a player issue. The reason the league needs to get 10 years is that otherwise it won’t shell out $300 million in make-whole money. For the owners to pay that money outside the system, they need to guarantee themselves more years at a true 50-50 split of hockey-related revenues. Obviously, for the first few years of the CBA, paying out $300 million means in reality it’s not 50-50 yet. On this issue, I predict the players will be willing to bend.

2. Contract term limits. The league proposes five-year limits (seven years if it’s your own player) while the players countered with eight years. Deputy commissioner Bill Daly said this was a hill they were willing to die on, that’s how important the owners feel about getting a five-year limit on contracts. The reasoning for that is long-term deals got out of control during the last CBA (that would be owners messing up their own system, by the way) and the league wants to rein in the kind of financial commitments that exist right now all over the league in long-term deals. But the players feel just as strongly that five-year limit is unacceptable, it removes way too much flexibility from the system, the players argue. "I guess Bill Daly’s hill will be the battleground," one NHL player told ESPN.com Friday. So where is the middle ground in the battleground? Can the league live with six years instead? Can the players live with that? This will be the final, toughest hurdle to a new CBA. But I think for a deal to get done, it’s the league and owners who have to move a little here on this one.

3. No compliance buyouts or caps on escrow in transition. Don Fehr brought up this up this week, a desire to either limit escrow early on in the new CBA and allow teams to buy out players but not have that payment count against the salary cap. The league vehemently opposes this because it’s money outside the system. As one league source said Friday, they’re already willing to shell out $300 million in "make-whole" outside the system, they’re not going to shell out more. Instead, the league believes that allowing teams to exceed the salary cap for the first 12 months of the CBA allows enough time for teams to get under the cap eventually and adjust to the new system. I’m not sure what Fehr’s angle is here. I mean, the whole point of make-whole is to alleviate the financial pressure the players will feel by going from 57 percent of HRR down to 50. Truth be told, some owners were furious when they found out the league offered $300 million this week. It’s a number every owner is comfortable with. Why Fehr needs other transition avenues on top of make-whole seems a bit of a reach to me.

The skinny: Commissioner Gary Bettman said the offer was off the table, but the reality is, if the players next week are willing to play ball with what the league proposed, that deal is still available. What the players have to figure out for themselves is whether waiting this out longer will help them get more. There’s no question the patience that Fehr has preached to his membership has paid off, the best example being the owners moving from $211 million to $300 million in make-whole. But at some point you have to know when you’ve played this out long enough. I believe that time has come. If I’m a player, I push hard to get back to the table next week and work with the league on its last offer. If the players do that, this lockout ends.

Re: The NHL Thread

lockout day 107:

so, the NHL offer seemed like the last ditch effort to save the season and I was shocked that the NHLPA even had the guts to put a counter-proposal out there, but now it seems like that offer (or the NHLs counter) is that last best hope of saving a partial season.

they appear optimistic about a 48 game season starting January 19 and the line in the sand seems to be drawn at 1/11/13.

Re: The NHL Thread

Originally Posted by heart cooks brain

i thought they cancelled the season a month ago.

Nope. Just games on the existing schedule.

This Will Destroy You| A Place To Bury Strangers| His Name Is Alive| Barry Manilow| Coachella| U2| Aerosmith| Steely Dan/Elvis Costello| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| FYF| Erykah Badu/St Vincent| The Who| Chelsea Wolfe| AC/DC| Garbage| Blur| The Cult/Primal Scream

Re: The NHL Thread

lots of progress last night from what I'm seeing in the twitterverse. players didn't vote for that disclaimer of interest thing and they were talking late into the night last night and are back at it early this morning. kinda feels like a deal is close to me.

Re: The NHL Thread

Re: The NHL Thread

^ Don't hate. I'll be thinking of you when we raise the banner.

This Will Destroy You| A Place To Bury Strangers| His Name Is Alive| Barry Manilow| Coachella| U2| Aerosmith| Steely Dan/Elvis Costello| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| FYF| Erykah Badu/St Vincent| The Who| Chelsea Wolfe| AC/DC| Garbage| Blur| The Cult/Primal Scream

Re: The NHL Thread

This Will Destroy You| A Place To Bury Strangers| His Name Is Alive| Barry Manilow| Coachella| U2| Aerosmith| Steely Dan/Elvis Costello| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| FYF| Erykah Badu/St Vincent| The Who| Chelsea Wolfe| AC/DC| Garbage| Blur| The Cult/Primal Scream

Re: The NHL Thread

Re: The NHL Thread

Well, I can't help ya with the 1992 part. But here's the next best thing. Just for you

This Will Destroy You| A Place To Bury Strangers| His Name Is Alive| Barry Manilow| Coachella| U2| Aerosmith| Steely Dan/Elvis Costello| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| The Jesus and Mary Chain/A Place To Bury Strangers| FYF| Erykah Badu/St Vincent| The Who| Chelsea Wolfe| AC/DC| Garbage| Blur| The Cult/Primal Scream