The last time a film won either screenplay award where the
associated film wasn’t nominated for
Best Picture was all the way back in 2004 with Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. So, with that in mind, you
can pretty much wipe off half of the nominees for either category this year.

On the adapted side, that leaves BlacKkKlansman and A Star is
Born for the win. Sure, Can You Ever
Forgive Me? just won the WGA award, but without a Best Picture nomination,
its chances are slight. Especially when you put the film up against a potential
win for Spike Lee, who could win his first competitive Oscar in this field, Can You Ever Forgive Me?’s chances seem
downright impossible. Voters will want to reward Spike Lee in some way, and
with little chance of a win for Best Director, here is their opportunity. Tough
luck Bradley Cooper, better luck next year.

As for Original Screenplay, the field is tougher to break
through. The WGA winner – Eighth Grade –
wasn’t even nominated, so it makes predicting a little tougher. Will Paul
Schrader’s first nomination be enough to secure a win? Unlikely. Will the
memorable dialogue from Green Book be
enough to help make Peter Farrelly an Oscar winner? I doubt it. Will voters
want to reward Adam McKay with another Oscar for a film that’s awfully similar
to the last film he won for? Not likely. Which leaves Roma and The Favourite.
Alfonso Cuarón is no Pedro Almodóvar – the last writer to win for a film in a
foreign language for Talk to Her in
2002 – so he’s out. Which leaves the very deserving The Favourite for a much deserved win.

Best Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Will Win: Vice

Could Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

That short clip of fifty something cuts in the space of a
two minute discussion from Bohemian
Rhapsody that floated around on twitter recently is reason enough to put a
nail in the coffin of that film winning Best Editing. Sure, it took away the
ACE Eddie award, but that’s the editing awards and not the Oscars, the overlap
between the two isn’t as high as you may think. With that said, one could
easily see the ACE Eddie Comedy/Musical winner, The Favourite, walk away with the award on the night. It certainly
has higher odds than Green Book,
which somehow managed a nomination here and is just happy for the
consideration. So, it comes down to BlacKkKlansman
and Vice. Barry Alexander Brown
might finally get the recognition he deserves for helping shape Spike Lee’s
voice over the years, but odds are that the extremely obvious editing from Hank
Corwin for Vice will take the cake
this year.

Best Cinematography

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star is Born

Will Win: Roma

Could Win: Cold War

Should Win: Roma

Alfonso Cuarón is the first director to be nominated for
Best Director and Best Cinematography. That narrative alone is the reason why
he will walk away with the Best Cinematography award on Oscar night. But… not
so soon. Cold War cinematographer
Lukasz Zal was nominated in this category for Ida, and lost. Will voters want to give some love in that
direction? Or, will they realise the brilliance of Matthew Libatique and reward
him for his personal, in your face work in A
Star is Born? Given the names of the cinematographers aren’t on the voting
ballot, it’s like that Roma will win
here on notoriety alone.

Nicholas Britell should have won this award for Moonlight in 2017, but he didn’t, so
here we are with an expected win for his powerful work with If Beale Street Could Talk. Yes,
Alexandre Desplat could triumph again for Isle
of Dogs, or Terence Blanchard could get the recognition he deserves for BlacKkKlansman, and maybe Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns have enough score to sway voters, but really,
if there is any justice, then Nicholas Britell will be clearing a space on his
bookshelf for a little gold man.

Best Original Song

All the Stars – Black PantherI’ll Fight – RBGThe Place Where Lost Things Go – Mary
Poppins ReturnsShallow – A Star is BornWhen a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Will Win: Shallow – A Star is
Born

Could Win: All the Stars – Black
Panther

Should Win: Shallow – A Star
is Born

Lady Gaga is not winning Best Actress, but she is definitely
getting on stage to accept the award for Best Original Song. Already a one-time
loser in this category, Gaga has been vocal about writing the song in
character, so a win here is also a win for her performance. If there’s going to
be a major upset, then it might be Kendrick Lamar with All the Stars for Black Panther. But, who am I kidding?
This category is as locked as Glenn Close is for Best Actress.

In one of the greatest disappointments in the night, I’m
predicting that Pixar will reign supreme again with their superhero film – Incredibles 2 – knocking out the more
deserving one, Spider-Man: Into the
Spider-Verse. This is pretty much the category to applaud Disney, with the
House of Mouse having won 12 out of 17 times here. It’s pretty darn impossible
to break through that track record, so here’s another win for Brad Bird and co.

About The Author

Andrew is passionate about Australian cinema, Australian politics, Australian culture, and Australia in general. Found regularly talking online about Sweet Country, and reminding people to watch Young Adult.