"When the Giants Come to Town..." is my blog intended to chronicle my thoughts on San Francisco Giants baseball. My special interest is in prospects and the farm system, but of course, will comment on all aspects of the San Francisco Giants. I will also comment on baseball in general, particularly from a fantasy baseball perspective. I hope you will find the site informative, and invite you to join in the discussion.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Scouting the Offseason: Should the Giants Sign Jordan Zimmermann?

The Giants offseason plans are well known. They need to upgrade their starting pitching if they intend to compete for their 4'th consecutive even year championship. The only questions left are what SP's they are going to acquire and how much are they willing to pay. One available free agent pitcher seems like a perfect fit. That would be Jordan Zimmermann of the Washington Nationals. While he is not a top tier starter in the same class as David Price and Zack Greinke, he is solidly in the second tier and that makes his price tag potentially more palatable to Giants management.

There is one factor in Jordan Zimmermann's resume that should make the Giants think twice about giving him a large, long term contract, which is likely what it would take to sign him. He had Tommy John surgery in 2009. You might respond to that concern by saying all pitchers are at risk of injury at all times. Zimmermann has already successfully recovered from his surgery. There are many very good pitchers in the major leagues who have undergone the procedure. I will counter with some data about Tommy John surgery I have gleaned from articles in Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN and Viva El Birdos. If you want to look them up for yourself, you can use the search words Tommy John Surgery Recurrence.

1. The number of pitchers undergoing Tommy John surgery is increasing over time. At the same time, the number of repeat Tommy John surgeries is increasing at an even faster rate.

2. Long term data from TJ surgeries done between 1974 and 1999 are now complete. Data from 2000-2009 in nearly complete. 20% of MLB pitchers who undergo TJ surgery never pitch in the major leagues again. The median career survival after TJ surgery is 100 innings pitched. 95% of pitchers who undergo TJ surgery with a mean age of 22 years are retired within 10 years.

3. The demographics of pitchers who need TJ surgery is changing with a strong trend toward younger, harder throwing pitchers. Jordan Zimmermann was one of the first of the younger type of pitcher to undergo the procedure. You might even call him the index case of the new TJ epidemic.

4. The career survival curves for pitchers who underwent the procedure between 2000-2009 is significantly lower than for those who had it 1974-1999. It is too early to know how the career survival curve for surgeries done from 2010 on will compare, but lower end of the projected range is farther from the preceding curves than the top end.

5. I was not able to find full career survival curves for second TJ surgeries, but 35% of pitchers who have a second procedure never pitch another MLB game and the performance levels of those that do are generally quite poor.

Of course, there are always exceptions such as Tommy John himself and AJ Burnett who has had a long post-TJ career and is a hard thrower. In general though. We also do not have comparison curves for the attrition rate for pitchers who have not had the procedure. How many pitchers have 10 year MLB careers with or without TJ surgery?

Let's stipulate that the probability of a post-TJ pitcher having a recurrence is the same as a non-TJ pitcher having a first injury. The pitcher undergoing the procedure for the first time is much more likely to come back and resume a successful career than one who has it for the second time. In other words, the risk may not be so much in the probability of injury, but in the probability of successful recovery! While his prior TJ surgery should not disqualify Jordan Zimmermann from consideration for a free agent signing, it should factor into how much money the Giants are willing to pay him and for how long. The market may push his price to the point where it would be more prudent to invest in a lower risk pitcher or pitchers.

23 comments:

Great info regarding TJ recoveries DrB! Zimmermann hasn't experienced really serious injuries after his TJ, so in my opinion, it's a good risk to sign the guy. Before a pretty good pitcher named Max Scherzer pitched for the Nationals, I really feel that Zimmermann is their ace for 2 years running and not the media's ace, Stephen Strasburg. ZImmermann's mechanics may be upper body-centric and there's some recoil on the follow through but I am feeling the work that he has put on himself to stay healthy and strong has me wanting the guy. Plus, the way he dominated our lineup in last year's NLDS speaks some weight on his competitiveness and ability to rise on the occasion especially in the postseason. For the price, I am not really sure but I'm feeling that he wants Lester money, somewhere in the 6/150+ range. Again, I think it is a good risk to take. MadBum, Zimm, Peavy, Heston, Blackburn is a pretty good pitching staff. If the Gs will add Leake, it's just making things better. #EvenYear

Personally, I would not go more than 5 years for any pitcher and definitely not one with a history of TJ surgery, but the free agent market is a risk, almost by definition. David Price could blow out his shoulder in spring training next year and never pitch again.

I don't really like big, fat contracts for pitchers like the Scherzer deal too because they can blow out at any minute so I prefer shorter contracts (like how Timmy does his business). Zimmermann got a healthy track record post-TJ and he's still just a year under 30 so I'm okay with a 5/125 contract with him.

Zimmermann will get $160MM+. He will use Lester's contract as a starting point. 5/125 won't get you much in this market. Leake and Samardzija will be under $100MM but Cueto, Zimm, Greinke and Price will be over $150MM and Price will be around $200MM.

If they can get Zimm for something like 5/100 (not sure why the other comments are saying he'll get $25AAV) and insure the contract against injury, it negates the financial risk. MadBum, Zimm, Peavy, Cain, Heston with Blackburn waiting if one of the latter two falter. That's a rotation I can get behind and it could stop the Giants from signing Leake.

Another guy to think about is Doug Fister. From 11-14, he was consistently very good. He's only a year older than Zimm, will be much cheaper, and is from Merced.

Generally, there is no insurance for large contracts, and especially for pitchers. Insurance by teams are pretty much a non-entity, one of the Giants FO discussed this a few years back, from what I recall.

Nice work on epidemiology of TJ surgery, Dr. B. Sometimes getting a good FA pitcher feels like buying a new car-- looks great on the lot, can't go wrong, and then 3-5 years down the road the warts start to show. I would be interested in 3 yr stats on big FA pitchers before and after big contracts. Not too interested in long term deals over 5 years for pitchers either.

With the injury risk being what it is with Zimmermann and the price being most likely $150MM+ wouldn't it just make sense to offer that kind of money to Greinke. It would give us another ace in the rotation and it would severely weaken our division rival. We have no idea if he would even leave the Dodgers but giving him a very reasonable offer would do 2 things. However, a swift exit in the playoffs could change his mind. (Crossing fingers) It will show him we are serious to winning it all in 2016 and if that doesn't work it drives up the price for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are probably going to get another top tier pitcher even if they keep Greinke so this would level the playing field or even give us the upper hand. Any thoughts?

On the other side of the coin, if Price and Greinke do go into Scherzer territory, I would prefer Mike Leake to Zimmermann, again due to Zimm's risk. I would then try for Kazmir or Iwakuma at no more than 3 years.

No offense but Fister in his current status is a fringe #3 at best. I like the bringing the local boy home idea but even if Fister was born on the mound at AT&T I wouldn't want him as anything but a compliment to a much better pitcher like Price, Cueto, Zimm or Greinke. Even Leake and Fister in my opinion wouldn't get us where we need to be.

None taken sir. Your points are welcome and well taken. I can barely spell WAR, let alone understand stats. I've simply bought into the even year champs concept since ST 2012.

I do like Rainball's arguments for pursuing Zach Greinke (adds ace to Good Guys, detracts from Fodgers), so I am in. I still say pursue Doug Fister, re-sign Leake and perhaps Vogelstrong (anyone who turns down a major league contract with LA for a minor league opportunity with SF is solid in my book)...or even Scott Kazmir as Moses offered below.

What you suggested is realistic about how the Giants normally go about their business. Try to make under the radar signings and pray for lightning in a bottle. The problem is look where is got us last year. I know supposedly they bid on Jon Lester but their plan B was not very good. You cannot just put all of your eggs into one basket and that is what they did last year. The other thing is you cannot do is to blame it on injuries. Every team has them. One could argue that the Dodgers and Cardinals had more injuries and they are in the playoffs.There are so many other good teams fighting for that wild card spot. The Pirates and Cubs will be good next year and you have to think the Nationals will be better. So you have Bum, Leake, Fister, Peavy and probably Cain. I just don't think that will get you in the playoffs and definitely not the division unless the Dodgers lose an ace early. If we are not aiming for the playoffs then that is a good rotation. Who knows? Maybe it will work and the starting rotation is lights out, but I would not want to bet another year of Bum and Posey on it. When you have a window you have to attack. Next thing you know our core is all over 30 and then your window is closed. I for one believe we need another true ace such as Greinke, Price, Cueto or Zimm and I think we will be back in the playoffs in 2016. You get stuff off of the second or third tier and expect to be on your couch in October next year watching other teams play. The wildcard is Cain. If he plays at a decent level (I am not expecting 2012) then we will be okay. But that is a big IF.

I think it is fair to say injuries were a factor. If you go back and look at the last 5 seasons, the even years have been relatively injury free and the odd years have been injury plagued. You can't cover for every potential injury. A player who is good enough to start is going to go to a team that will start him. Players who are willing to sign as insurance against injury are generally not good enough to start for most teams.

It's hilarious to me when people start talking about pitchers getting 5/100 when they're top on the FA market, or even less than 5 years. Perhaps it's not worthwhile to deliver contacts like that, but to think your going to get a Zimmerman/Lester at that price, or on a 3 year deal is just silly. No offense, but I wish I could but a mansion in Malibu for 400k, too. Ain't happening unless it's got termites.

I agree with the premise of this article and post Doc. If we're going after a top FA arm, go after those with far less risk, as the risk is already so high on all of these million dollar arms. Personally, I would go 28AAV for both Price and Grienke, at 5 years ideally, potentially 6 depending on the market. The Giants are in desperate need of a second #1 in the rotation, and have nothing close to a guarantee coming from the farm (though I like Bickford & Beede and even Blackburn a lot). To compete in the playoffs the Giants will need another Cain/Lincecum type. Even more so because this is an unprecedented offensive team they have assembled right now.

Personally, I would go all out for Greinke, because it accomplishes two massive jobs at once: strip LA of their true but lesser heralded Ace, and add one to our rotation. If the NL West flag is the goal (it is, given the unpredictability of the WC), then this is my key strategy for the offseason.

Seemingly impossible? Yes. But so what? I think Evans is serious about a top flight pitcher this Winter, and which better?!?

I like Zimmerman a lot. Honestly, every winter meetings Giants chase and us fans realize that it takes two to tango...meaning a free agent has to WANT to come to SF! Lately, that hasn't been the case for top FA. Giants have all the money in the world and that's great, but FA don't like the taxes here or whatever IT is. So, the best bet is to look at trades. Carlos Carrasco for instance. Young controllable contract. Thank you Jarrett Parker for making yourself tradable. Angel Pagan is at end of contract and now tradable. Belt is tradable. Giants have the currency now to make a trade for once for SP.

Angel Pagan would only be tradable in a bad contract swap. He has almost no trade value. He is rated as one if not the worst defensive CF if you believe defensive sabermetrics. I like Pagan but I am realistic in us getting next to nothing for him. Maybe if we packaged him with Beede or Arroyo then we might have a taker.

Belt's value is hard to determine with his injury history. But he is affordable and he is a great all around player. However, Posey isn't ready to convert to 1B. So who is going to play there if he leaves. Shaw is a few years away.

Parker has done well in a SSS. I don't know if anyone can project what he will be. He could be great or he could be Brett Pill. Until he gets regular playing time nobody will know.

What about Kazmir? I don't see him as any more risky than Zimmerman. And ever since he fixed his mechanics, he's gone two full seasons of 30+ starts with 180+ innings with a good ERA and fairly solid peripherals.

Agreed. However, you would be hoping you get the Kazmir of the last few years and not the Kazmir when he was at the Angels. He was horrible for that stretch. The comeback has been amazing. 3 years wouldn't be so bad.

About Me

I grew up in Northern California near the Napa Valley. I got interested in baseball and the Giants by listening to Russ Hodges and Lon Simmons broadcast Giants games on KSFO. My early heros were Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Juan Marichal and a guy you don't always think of, Jim Ray Hart. When I got older and was in school and early career, I didn't have time to follow as closely, but I tried to look up their boxscores each day and catch an occasional game on TV. One habit I got into at an early age was looking up the stats of their minor league players in The Sporting News. That became more difficult as TSN moved away from comprehensive baseball coverage. Now, of course, technology and affluence has changed all that. The internet is teaming with farm system/minor league information as well as college and high school baseball. Satellite TV enables me to get most of the Giants games on TV. I'm married with 2 wonderful daughters, who like to watch games with me.