NFL Power Rankings Week 10

We've been treated to the highest scoring first nine weeks of football in
NFL history. Yet as we move into November, the weather is going to start
getting colder and harsher. The cold has a way of slowing everything down,
making everything just a little bit harder. The wind will start to become a
factor as well. And we're only a few weeks away from our first snow bowl.

In upcoming Week 10, there will likely be five games played in weather in
the 30s and three more games in the low 40s. That's over half of the games
on the board being played out in the elements.

This is all pertinent, because as scoring as gone up the totals have gone
through the roof. The books have scrambled to catch up with the
high-scoring league. All of the totals have been massively inflated. So now
might be the time to start betting the other way.

In football betting you always want to be out in front of the trends rather
than trying to catch up to them from behind. If you were out in front of
the 'over' trends earlier in the year, then that is great. Now all bettors
are expecting shootouts each week. But it is the same story every year. And
as the weather turns and we barrel headlong into winter, points are going
to become just a little more difficult to come by, and those 'under' bets
are going to start cashing.

Here is Doc's Sports NFL Power Rankings:

1. Los Angeles Rams (8-1) -
I know the assumption this week is that the Rams are going to bounce right
back from their first loss of the season and go back to their winning ways.
But teams tend to have a letdown after their first loss of the season, and
the favorite in the Seahawks series is just 2-5 ATS. The home team is 8-3
ATS, though, and the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home against
Seattle.

2. New Orleans Saints (7-1) -
The thing that stands out about these Saints is their physicality. On both
sides of the ball this is a team that seeks out contact and plays tough,
aggressive football. The Saints are 41-17 ATS against teams with a winning
record, and they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games.

3. New England Patriots (7-2) -
Bill Belichick will be going against one of his former players this week
when he matches wits with Mike Vrabel. The Patriots get the Titans off a
short week, and New England had no problem manhandling the Titans in the
playoffs last year. The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
against the Titans and 7-2 ATS in this series over the last 20 years.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) -
The Chiefs should beat the Cardinals by about 40 this week. But one thing
to keep in mind is that Kansas City could be looking ahead to next Monday's
showdown with the Rams in Mexico City. Kansas City is 12-2 ATS in its last
14 games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1) -
Here come the Steelers. They've won and covered four games in a row, each
by at least a touchdown. They've outgained those opponents by 145 yards per
game. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS against the Panthers and 10-5 ATS in their
last 15 games against the NFC. However, they are just 3-8 ATS in their last
11 games following a win.

6. Carolina Panthers (6-2) -
Let's slow down on the whole "Norv Turner is revolutionizing the Panthers
offense" talk. There has been a comical amount of praise heaped on Turner
this week. This guy hasn't coordinated a Top 10 scoring offense or a Top 15
total offense in more than 15 years! This year, for as "great" as everyone
is saying the offense is, they are still just No. 13 in total yards and No.
11 in points.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (6-2) -
The Curse of the Chargers Kicker is real. Over the last five years they've
lost 11 games by three points or less while employing some of the worst
kickers in the game. In fact, since bringing back Drew Kaser, the Chargers
are on their sixth different kicker over the last 22 games.

8. Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) -
The bye week comes at a good time for the Vikings. They need to get
themselves fresh and ready to go as they come upon the most difficult
stretch of their season. Three of Minnesota's next four games are on the
road, with trips to Chicago, New England and Seattle looming.

9. Chicago Bears (5-3) -
The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFL in Top 10 in points scored
and points allowed. The Rams are the other. But Chicago is actually in the
Top 5 in scoring offense (29.4 points per game) and No. 4 in scoring
defense (19.1 PPG).

10. Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) -
The Eagles had one of their best weeks of the season without even taking a
snap. Philadelphia is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and has lost
back-to-back home games. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the Cowboys series, but
the road team has won eight of the last 10 meetings.

11. Green Bay Packers (3-4-1) -
After losing three of four, things look pretty grim around Green Bay. But
the Packers have played one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL.
They've had to play two of the three best teams in the game on the road -
on opposing coasts - in the last two weeks. They get Miami at home this
week before having to play two more brutal road games (at Seattle and at
Minnesota).

12. Baltimore Ravens (4-5) -
I still think that of all the teams currently below .500, the Ravens
probably have the best chance for a turnaround and a playoff berth. That
said, I'm tired of making excuses for this group. Maybe it simply is time
for John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco to pack their bags and go.

13. Atlanta Falcons (4-4) -
I expect the Falcons to be one of the biggest public plays of the weekend.
However, Atlanta is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-6 ATS
after a win. The Falcons are also just 3-6 ATS in the second of
back-to-back road games.

14. Washington Redskins (5-3) -
It is unreal how bad Washington's injury luck has been over the last five
years. The injury bug has taken a T-Rex-size bite out of Washington's
offense. Starting guards Shawn Lauvau and Brandon Scherff are done for the
year. Trent Williams is still out with a dislocated thumb. And Morgan Moses
hurt his MCL on Sunday as well. Washington has literally been forced into
grabbing retreads like Jonathan Cooper and Austin Howard off the street.

15. Seattle Seahawks (4-4) -
Seattle has been an outstanding bounce back bet. They are 13-5 ATS in their
last 18 games after a loss, and they won't pull any punches this week in
Los Angeles. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in that series, and the 'under' is
12-5 the last 17 times the Seahawks faced the Rams.

16. Houston Texans (6-3) -
Sorry, but I am still not buying the Texans. They may be the best of a bad
bunch in the AFC South. Yet all six of their wins during this streak have
come against teams with losing records, and half of them have been by just
three points. Better to be lucky than good, I suppose.

17. Tennessee Titans (4-4) -
I have to give credit where credit is due. This team is still not very
good. But they play tough, physical football. Dion Lewis has been one of
the best free agent pickups of the season. And the difference in that MNF
game was that Marcus Mariotta could make plays down the field and Dak
Prescott could not.

18. Denver Broncos (3-6) -
There is no coherent argument to be made for keeping Vance Joseph. Just as
there is no coherent argument to be made for either of his coaching
decisions - game deciding decisions - involving the field goal attempts at
the end of each half. Joseph completely botched both scenarios, and his
shocking lack of competence when it comes to game management has moved past
shocking into the realm of the hilarious.

19. Dallas Cowboys (4-4) -
I feel like I am piling on at this point, but Dak Prescott just isn't very
good. If he has to throw the ball more than about eight yards down the
field, his accuracy is somewhere between Jeff George and Kerry Collins. He
can't do it. And he has now had 10 games with multiple turnovers over the
past two seasons. Prescott's end zone interception early in the first
quarter was a game-changer.

20. Detroit Lions (3-5) -
The Lions have dominated the Bears over the last five years, beating them
three straight times and nine of the last 10. This has been an
extraordinarily streaky team. But they don't look like a team that is
tanking, and they should at least put up a fight this week.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) -
Once again, A.J. Green is injured, and it is going to torpedo the Bengals
season. They simply don't have a second option in the passing game. And
anyone holding their breath for a John Ross breakout is going to suffocate.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-5) -
It will be interesting to see how this team responds to its two weeks off.
The Jaguars body slammed the Colts twice last year by a combined 57-10
score. The Jaguars have covered the spread six straight times in the Colts
series, and this game kind of looks like a Waterloo for this group.

23. Indianapolis Colts (3-5) -
The Colts are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a bye week, and they are
32-13 ATS in their last 45 games against teams that are below .500. Also,
the home team in the Colts-Jaguars series has won six of the last seven
meetings.

24. Miami Dolphins (5-4) -
How on earth does this team have five wins? They have been outscored by 38
points on the season, and their stats are closer to a 2-7 or 3-6 team than
one that is above .500 and somehow involved in the AFC playoff race. Miami
has lost its last three road games by an average of 20 points per game.

25. Cleveland Browns (2-6-1) -
It would have been really interesting to see how this season would've gone
for this team if they had won some of those early games. Remember: they
absolutely should've won against Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Oakland and
should've started the season at least 3-1. Would they have still imploded?
Would things still have come off the rails? I guess we will never know.

26. New York Jets (3-6) -
I don't know why the Jets are so frustrated. Did this team actually think
it was going to compete this year? They were massive overachievers last
year and were starting a rookie quarterback (for some reason). What did
they think was going to happen? The good news is that they have Buffalo
coming to town. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series and the Jets are
10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) -
This is as bad of a defense as I have seen in a long, long time. The
Panthers were basically making fun of them by constantly running reverses
and misdirection plays once it became obvious that the Bucs defense has the
pursuit ability of a five-year-old soccer player. Mike Smith took the fall
for this unit. But the fact is that their defensive roster is comically
bad.

28. Arizona Cardinals (2-6) -
Over the last 14 years, NFL teams off a bye week have gone 228-195 ATS. The
"extra week of rest" is one of the most overrated handicapping angles in
football.

29. San Francisco 49ers (2-7) -
Slow down on the Nick Mullens love. This Shanahan System on offense has
proven - for more than 25 years - that you can plug in almost anyone and
turn them into a decent quarterback. What was more shocking was that some
guy named "Mostert" led them in rushing, and Middle Tennessee grad Richie
James was their top receiver. You can literally plug in guys off the street
and they can put up numbers in Shanahan's offense.

31. New York Giants (1-7) -
Here is why stats lie and that watching (and re-watching) a football game
is better way to analyze it than simply looking at the numbers: Eli Manning
is fourth in passing yards, has the best completion percentage of his
career (68.3%) and his 7.5 yards per attempt is one of the best marks of
the career. However, anyone that has actually watched Manning can attest to
his obvious incompetence and overall shoddy play.

32. Buffalo Bills (2-7) -
Nathan Peterman! I honestly hope that he gets 1,000 more chances and that
he never loses his starting position. He might be my favorite quarterback
of all time. There aren't too many guys that get you excited about a
potential pick-six every time he drops back - only to see him come through
time and time again! In Buffalo's last 75 drives they have three offensive
touchdowns for them and three defensive touchdowns allowed for the other
team. I will never know how this team beat Minnesota. Ever.

Throughout the season I will have my NFL Power Rankings every Tuesday. My
next ones will be released on Tuesday, Nov. 13.

Robert Ferringo
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