Analyzing Jordan Spieth’s weekend troubles

This past weekend, Jordan Spieth had a share of the lead at The Players Championship going into Sunday before shooting a 74 and finishing tied for 4th. This brought up discussion of Spieth having “collapses” on Sunday, and sparked my interest in seeing what was giving the young superstar issues on the final day. In the end, I found some interesting pieces to the puzzle along with some very typical trends of players that have a tendency to struggle on the weekend.

For starters, his poor play in final rounds has been greatly exaggerated. Here is a look at Spieth’s rankings in scoring average by round, out of 199 players:

Round 3 has given Spieth more issues than Round 4 this season. Here is a look at his scores by event, and I highlighted the weekend scores where he shot greater than 72.

The numbers show that Spieth’s Round 4 “collapses” are overblown. In fact, if he was able to perform better in Round 3 this year, he likely would have come away with at least one victory in 2014 and performed much better in at least three different events.

What we do see is that Spieth is a terrific golfer in Rounds 1 and 2. This is critical to any golfer’s success in events, as there is a very strong mathematical correlation to playing well earlier in an event and having success in that event. For the Tour, it is very clear that Round 1 scoring average has the greatest correlation to success on Tour. That is followed directly behind Round 2 scoring average. There is then is a large drop off when we look at the correlation between success on Tour and Round 3 scoring average. And Round 4 Scoring Average has the lowest correlation to success on Tour of all of the scoring averages by round.

Recently, I took a look at this for state amateur events that were at least two rounds in California, Florida, Georgia and Texas, and the same correlations occurred. Playing well early gives golfers the best chance to win the event. And too many golfers, be it amateurs or professionals, try to play too conservatively early in events in order to ease their way in. This is why Spieth has been so successful this year despite his weekend struggles. He gets himself off to good starts and puts himself in a good position to win the event.

Despite Spieth’s Sunday struggles being exaggerated, I did find some parts of his game that are very typical of Tour players who have issues with performance on the weekend. Here’s a look at Spieth’s key metrics this season versus last season:

What is interesting about Spieth is that while his 2013 metrics were outstanding, he is actually a better short game player and putter this season. But, his driving has badly regressed and this is the most common trend of Tour players that tend to play worse on the weekend compared to Thursday and Friday. Here’s a look at Spieth’s driving metrics:

Spieth’s accuracy and precision off the tee is the biggest reason for his decline in his driving effectiveness and it is a common trend of golfers who tend to have issues playing on the weekend. But, it is also important to take note of his distance metrics.

First, his 2014 rankings are based out of 199 players while his 2013 rankings are based out of 180 players. Here is how his distance rankings compared the past two seasons:

Measured drives are the old fashioned way to measure distance where the Tour uses two holes to measure the drive for each round. This is a fairly important metric, as it is usually done on holes where 95 percent of the golfers will hit driver on that hole. Distance on “all drives” is measured with a laser from ShotLink. When we combine these metrics, we can get an idea of how aggressive the player is off the tee because the rankings should be pretty much the same.

For Spieth, he ranks much better in the All Drives category than the Measured Drives category. This indicates he is fairly aggressive off the tee and does not lay up very often. However, I have some concerns with his distance on “measured drives.” It has dropped noticeably from last year, which indicates he is not hitting it as far when he is pulling out the driver. With that, I want to take a look at his radar metrics to see what the possible changes are this year:

It appears that Spieth may be trying to hit his driver with more of an upward attack angle, because his launch angle and max height are up while his spin rate is lower. The other thing I noticed is that he went from having a rightward-miss bias to a leftward-miss bias. None of these radar metrics are “bad” per say, but I feel it has created a different ball flight and he is struggling to adjust to that.

If there is a large concern for me, it is that typically the most effective drivers of the ball on Tour have kept their spin rate between 2,400-and-2,800 rpm. For Tour players, spin rates that are too low can cause accuracy issues, and Spieth is lowering his spin rate instead of increasing it a bit. Perhaps it is all being done to increase distance off the tee, but he is actually hitting his measured drives shorter this season and is so much less accurate off the tee that he is nowhere near as effective off the tee as he was last year.

And his accuracy issues off the tee have spilled over into his approach shot play. While he is still a very good iron player, his regression is largely due to having less approach shots from the short grass.

So, Spieth’s skill on approach shots has not really changed as much as he is leaving himself with shots that have a higher degree of difficulty.

Lastly, while Spieth has putted well overall this year, there is a key putting metric that he has struggled with that is common in golfers that regress on the weekend:

The reason for Spieth ranking well in strokes gained-putting is that he is a very good putter from 5-to-25 feet. His weakness putting is from 3-to-5 feet. So on the weekends, his struggles with accuracy off the tee are not helped by his inability to consistently make those knee knockers.

I don’t believe that Spieth should be given the “choker” label. As the first set of metrics show, he has actually played pretty well on Sundays this year and Saturdays have been much more problematic. Spieth was not very good from 3-to-5 feet last year, and that will likely be a more difficult issue for him to resolve since he has yet to prove that he can putt well from that distance. However, the bigger issue is with his driving and whether it is a swing mechanics issue, an equipment issue or both.

Spieth should look to get his launch monitor data closer to last year, because he was actually longer with the driver in 2013 and far more accurate which made him a far more effective driver of the ball.

Richie Hunt is a statistician whose clients include PGA Tour players, their caddies and instructors in order to more accurately assess their games. He is also the author of the recently published e-book, 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis; the Moneyball Approach to the Game of Golf. He can be reached at ProGolfSynopsis@yahoo.com or on Twitter @Richie3Jack.
GolfWRX Writer of the Month: March 2014
Purchase 2017 Pro Golf Synopsis E-book for $10

16 Comments

16 Comments

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May 14, 2014 at 8:06 pm

I will say one thing about my observations of the sports world in the last 4 decades…the armchair quarterbacking is getting out of hand. People who can’t bust an egg commenting on Jordon Speith’s golf game. The only choke they know about is what they do on a 2 foot putt on a $5 nassau bet or the snap hook when the going gets tough on the local muni. When I was 20 I was chasing tail and even though I was a scratch golfer…I didn’t care. No one that is a member of WRX has earned the right to even comment on Jordon Speith’s golf game. Admire it and shut up.

I’m a huge Jordan Spieth fan, but I understand why people think he’s choking. In both the Masters and the Players, his play fell off significantly AFTER he took leads early in the final round. Or rather, his play levels off. And in both cases, he hasn’t bounced back well from perceived bad breaks where he’s hit the shot he wanted to but the result wasn’t good.

I wouldn’t call it choking so much as learning how to handle himself in those situations. His issues have just been magnified by the high profile of the events.

Even in his win at the John Deere, he never had the lead during the final round, I don’t think. And he won in the playoff when others missed very makeable shots.

I’m hoping he figures it out, and he should have plenty of chances to.

Jordan’s problems on Sunday’s round were simply related to his aggressive approach shots taking aim at some difficult pin placements and recovery shot/club selection when he missed the green. He’s only 20 and is absolutely on his way to becoming a dominate player. He’s moving in the right direction … look out Tiger!

Awesome stats! Although Jordan Spieth is wonderful talent, he doesn’t possess the power nor world class skills to warrant anyone to think that he will be a multiple winner year in and year out on tour. Statistically speaking he doesn’t have an attribute that has the wow factor like a Dustin Johnson or Fred Funk. That said, he is still young and in theory barring any injuries or major hiccups can become a great player. When you watch Rory, you knew there was something special about him, Jordan doesn’t come across as that special someone, at least not yet…

Interesting analysis. I also think it’s crazy to label him a choker. Such a talented kid. Regarding scoring stats, your analysis compares his scores relative to himself in other rounds, and it does appear he’s avoiding blow-ups in the final round, but it doesn’t really show if he’s performing in the final round relative to the competition. I’d be interested to see how his final round scores compare to the average (or other metric) score of those who eventually finish in the top 20, top 10, top 5, or even the winners of each event. Might not tell a story at all, but could possibly show if he is being outplayed be the competition instead of “collapsing”…

Just another case of making the numbers tell a fantastic story. Though you make the case for poor driving, and poor putting from 5ft and in, it seems he ranked quite highly in these areas in the players championship.

Good article Rich. There’s a saying in sports that numbers don’t lie. Spieth has done very well for the short time he has been on tour. Because golf is a game of mistakes/misses it appears Spieth is still on a learning curve. I come from a pro hockey background where you are able to see the development of elite young players from about 18 or 19.
I still think that Spieth is probably growing/adjusting to his body and in the next couple of years when his growth stops he will not only get stronger but get more comfortable with his frame.
Players like Michelle Wie and now Lydia Ko are good studies. Ko is clearly an elite athlete who will probably grow a bit more and get much stronger. Michelle Wie was smart to go to school and let her body “rest and recuperate” from being on tour too early. And you can see the changes in Rory McIlroys frame over the last two years.
Tiger Woods is the obvious most “enhanced “frame who went from a ecto/meso frame to almost exclusive mesomorphic frame. Hence the joint stress injuries from being so strong for an ectomorphic frame.
As Spieth matures and becomes more adjusted to the tour there’s a strong possibility he will be rewarded with some wins rather than close top 5 finishes. This is assuming he will improve physically over the next 5 years.

Wow, very interesting information. It might be time to put a new driver in play, ditch the 910, and get those spin numbers up. I remember hearing on golf channel that he was working with his coach to add some distance with the driver in the off season. It looks like he did pick up some club head speed but any club manufacturer (except for taylormade lol) will tell you that accuracy is much more important than distance.

As for the “choker” label, that’s a joke. This kid is a stud. I can’t wait for him to win a big one and silence that garbage and it won’t be very long if he keeps playing as well as he has been. Insane talent for a 20 year old kid.

Statistics or not, we seem to be forgetting that Jordan is 20 years old. Think of our mental state when we were that age. In my case and probably some of yours, it was “Cigarettes, whiskey and wild wild women”.

10 interesting photos from Monday at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

GolfWRX is live this week from the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club.

Like all WGC events, the best golfers in the world are in the field, so we’re capturing plenty of interesting shots of the biggest names in the game (and what they’re playing). From Monday’s preparations, we have two general galleries, a handful of WITB galleries, and a look at SuperStroke’s new wares.

Check out a curation of some of the most interesting shots from Monday in Austin.

Monday’s Photos from the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

GolfWRX is live this week from the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event at Austin Country Club (par 71: 7,108 yards), a 1984 Pete Dye design.

The match play field is stacked, including the world No. 1-ranked Dustin Johnson, the reigning FedExCup champion Justin Thomas, the reigning Masters champion Sergio Garcia, and the two-time match play champion Jason Day. In total, 59 of the top 64 golfers in the world are playing in the event; Brooks Koepka (wrist), Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Adam Scott and Henrik Stenson will not be in the field.

Last year, D. Johnson won the match play event, which was his third straight victory — that was before the freak accident at the Masters that kept him sidelined, preventing him from going for four straight wins.

Tour Rundown: McIlroy returns to the winner’s circle in fashion

Golf fans everywhere had another week of Tiger Woods to spike the enthusiasm meter, and the resurgent cat did not disappoint. We’ll look into him in greater depth below. Four events were contested across the professional golfing globe, and each result earned our attention. As the major season draws ever closer, let’s run down the triumvirate of tournaments that ran past Pi Day and the Ides of March in 2018.

McIlroy returns to winner’s circle at Arnold Palmer Invitational

With Henrik Stenson, Woods and McIlroy all in the mix on Sunday afternoon, a return to the podium by one of the game’s current greats was nearly assured. McIlroy took charge in the middle of the back nine, with birdies on holes 13-16. That magnificent stretch vaulted the 4-time major champion to 17-under par, 3 shots clear of pursuers Stenson, Justin Rose and Bryson DeChambeau. At his heels, however, DeChambeau called out “not so fast!” as he closed within a stroke with an eagle at the 16th. McIlroy answered “I can’t hear you,” with another birdie of his own at the 18th, to reach 18-under. When Bryson failed to birdie 17 or 18, the title was McIlroy’s. The young Californian stood alone in 2nd place, 2 behind the champion and 1 clear of Stenson (70 for a 14-under total) and Rose (67.)

It seems like every contender was subjected to the chiding of a certain announcer, all weekend long. In McIlroy’s case, the solo debate centered on his fitness and musculature. No doubt that mid-20s Rors bears little resemblance to the curly-haired, younger version of himself. This assessment is off the mark; what ultimately matters is the putter, and it knows no muscle. McIlroy made putt after putt down the stretch, in addition to his chip-in on the 15th, and that was the difference. 8 birdies, 0 bogeys…that combination is hard to eclipse on a Sunday, in Florida, at the King’s palace.

Tiger Woods inches closer

By the numbers, the 14-time major champion needed to go 11 deep on Sunday to make a run at the title. An opening nine of 34, marred by a bogey at the 9th, made that outcome unlikely. As he stood on the 16th tee, Woods was 5-under on the day, and in the mix. Knowing that he needed eagle, his quest for a long drive ended out of bounds, leading to a bogey 6 on the hole. With his chances gone, Woods bogeyed 17 to finish minus-10 on the week, tied for 5th place with Ryan Moore. Tiger had solid rounds on 3 of 4 days, but his even-par 72 on Friday was too much to overcome. The field did its best to welcome him to the title chase with banal play in round 3, but Woods is still not yet Woods of yore. His Sunday was strong, but it needed to be perfect. His two mistakes (bogeys at 9 and 16) represented miscues that the legendary Tiger would not have allowed. The first bogey, at the 9th hole, was his second of the week there. Woods was 3-under for the day, and could not afford to give back a stroke. On 16, a hole that played like a short par four most of the day, Woods essentially double-bogeyed with his 6. When Woods does win again, both of those mistakes will have been eliminated.

LPGA Founders Cup to Inbee Park

She had the low round of the week on day two, she ran 4 consecutive birdies on Sunday’s back nine to stake her claim, and Inbee Park served notice that she is every bit the 19-event winner. After a slow start (1 birdie and 11 pars) to the final round, Park caught fire and won by 5 strokes over Marina Alex, Laura Davies and Ariya Jutanugarn. Both Alex and Davies had a chance to grab solo second, but each bogeyed the final hole. Park made history in 2016, when she won the gold medal at the Olympic Games in Brasil. The Founders Cup was her first tour victory since last spring’s HSBC Women’s Championship. Of the runners-up, Alex stands out by virtue of having never won a professional title. The Vanderbilt alum has been in the mix in 2 of 3 events this season. Two weeks ago, she finished with 77 to drop out of contention. This week’s effort certainly advanced her confidence to close the deal one day soon. As for the only holder of knighthood in the field, the ageless Dame Laura Davies continues to demonstrate that natural gifts will always have their place in professional sport. Until this week, her last top-five finish came in 2014. Does she have one last victory in her? Here’s hoping!

Unheralded Polland claims first PGA Tour Latinoamerica title

Ben Polland completed his schooling in 2013 at North Carolina’s Campbell University, then set out to make a name on the professional tours of the world. He ranked 189th on the 2017 Web money list, compelling him to return to Q-School at season’s end, then beginning 2018 on the PGA Tour’s Latin America circuit. Polland’s only professional victory of note was the 2015 Bermuda Open, and his dossier lists his current affiliation as an assistant professional at Long Island’s Deepdale Club. Given all that, why shouldn’t he shoot consecutive rounds of 65, on his way to victory in the Guatemala Open?

Polland began the final round with a 3-stroke advantage over Bryan Martin, but the challenger sank fast with 73, ending in a tie for 7th. Tyler McCumber was 4 behind at dawn’s first light, but he also had his struggles on the day, dropping a slot to a 4th-place tie. Matt Gilchrest improved 11 strokes from day 1 (74) to day 2 (63) and might have won the event had Thursday been kinder. He closed with weekend rounds of 67-68 to finish tied for 2nd, 4 behind Polland. Tied with Gilchrest was Skyler Finnell, who play solid, upper-60s golf all week long. Had the putter warmed up enough to drop him to the mid or lower 60s on any given day, Finnell would have also given Polland some discomfort.

Jeffrey Kang follows Q-School win with tournament title on PGA Tour China Series

Jeffrey Kang, a Californian of Korean descent, didn’t like his chances after opening with 75 at the Chengdu Championship. After subsequent rounds of 63-66-64, Kang sat atop the field, champion of the season-opening event of the 2018 schedule. Kang’s final round, the low of the day, separated him from the field by 5 strokes. third-round leader Shunyat Hak stumbled out of the gate on day 4, making bogey on the par-5 first hole. The remained of the day was birdie-bogey trade-off, resulting in a 73 for -14, and a tie for 5th. The biggest threat to Kang was William Harold, who signed for a 5-under 31 on the outward half. Harold hit a wall, however, stringing 9 consecutive pars to end his day. Against Kang’s inward 9 of -4 32, 36 was simply not good enough.