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Monday, 5 January 2015

Managing Strategic Mass Migration

Alphen, Netherlands. 5
January. Last week three hundred and
fifty nine-migrants were rescued adrift at sea off the Italian coast on the
abandoned, ageing, decrepit livestock freighter Ezadeen. On Sunday a major
demonstration took place in Dresden against immigration. That same day a poll in a leading British
newspaper said that immigration was the most important topic for the May 2015 UK
General Election. Italian authorities
now estimate that the human traffickers responsible for the Ezadeen made $3m/€2.5m profit from their
trade in human misery with each migrant paying between $4-8000/€3-7000 for the
trip. These people are but the latest of
some 200,000 migrants who made it across the Mediterranean to Europe in
2014. Tragically, some 3000 people paid
with their lives. Managing mass migration
into the EU is one if not THE most pressing strategic issue for Europeans. What must be done?

Grasp the scope of the challenge:
This is not just a European phenomenon. According to Global Strategic Trends 2014 the world’s population will grow from
7.2bn people today to between 8.4bn and 10.4bn by 2045. 97% of that growth will occur in the
developing world with 70% in the world’s nine poorest countries. Driven by demographic
pressure, conflicts, globalisation and organised transnational crime the world
is witnessing the first wave of strategic mass migration with profound and
destabilising structural implications for geopolitics and societies. And, such
migration is likely only to increase. Indeed, with states collapsing and in
distress across North Africa, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern
Europe, Latin America, and much of Asia the imperative of people to move will
grow rapidly and massively.

Support
front-line states: 87%
of all refugees are in the developing world. Moreover, whilst there are some 230,000
Syrian and Iraqi refugees in Europe, there are still some 3m who remain in the
region placing a huge strain on already-weakened countries such as Jordan and
Lebanon. For exanple, there are already 1.1m
registered Syrians in Lebanon and some 0.5m unregistered. Syrians now represent some 30% of the
population and many Lebanese fear this massive influx will destabilise an
already fragile state. This week Lebanon
will impose visas on Syrians. Supporting front-line states with aid and
expertise must be a priority.

Render
asylum fit for purpose: 50% of those making the perilous
journey are not refugees but simply people seeking a better life and whilst no-one
can blame people for that most basic of human instincts the sheer numbers
involved means immigration must be controlled. In 2013 EU member-states
issued 2.3m work permits. However, if
host populations are to accept those with a right to stay they must be
confident that those with no right to stay are returned to their country of
origin. European publics have no confidence in immigration systems at present or the leaders who promise endlessly to 'fix' the problem but never do. What is needed is a humane return
policy allied to sanctions on those third countries who refuse to take back their nationals and yet receive EU/national aid.

Recognise
migration as a Europe-wide challenge: It is utterly unfair to expect hard-pressed
countries like Spain, Greece and Italy to cope with such flows on their own. As regular readers of this blog know I am
wary of more Europe but mass migration is one area which needs a collective European
position. Relations between EU member-states
are already suffering due to a lack of either policy or effective enforcement. Italy is no longer finger-printing many new
arrivals who simply move untracked onto other parts of Europe. France, which under EU rules should be
dealing with the migrants seeking to enter Britain from Calais, is threatening
to push UK border controls back to Dover to force the British to deal with the
problem. Britain refuses to deal with
many of the so-called ‘pull factors’ which make the UK such an attractive
destination. Equitable resettlement across Europe is needed for those with a
right to stay to avoid beggar-thy-neighbour national immigration policies. Instead of trying to destroy states the EU
must act as the co-ordinator of collective state action. A first step would be a far better system for identifying migrants and their countries of origin.

Make
agencies work together: A critical
element in any policy must be the interdiction and prosecution of human trafficking gangs. Europe’s attempt to deal with the traffickers
has thus far been lamentable. Schengen Area external border controls must be tightened by in turn
strengthening Frontex, the agency responsible for assisting EU member-states with securing the EU's external border. At
present Frontex has only 300 people
working for it in Warsaw. Efforts must
also be made to ensure Europol and Frontex work together more effectively which is not the case today.

European politicians
and their electorates are both wrong about strategic mass migration. Politicians are
wrong to wish the issue away. Electorates
are wrong to believe there are any quick fixes. The essential dilemma for Europeans is how to
maintain humanitarian principles and protect societies from the extremism,
social instability, wage suppression and crime which unfortunately such migrations
also (and undoubtedly) spawn. Managing
mass migration is a strategic issue and as such must be dealt with
strategically and honestly.

About Me

Julian Lindley-French is Senior Fellow of the Institute of Statecraft, Director of Europa Analytica & Distinguished Visiting Research Fellow, National Defense University, Washington DC. An internationally-recognised strategic analyst, advisor and author he was formerly Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy,and Special Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of Leiden. He is a Fellow of Respublica in London, and a member of the Strategic Advisory Group of the Atlantic Council of the United States in Washington.
Latest books: The Oxford Handbook on War 2014 (Paperback) (2014; 709 pages). (Oxford: Oxford University Press) & "Little Britain? Twenty-First Strategy for a Middling European Power". (www.amazon.com)
The Friendly-Clinch Health Warning: The views contained herein are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect those of any institution.