Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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With an extra-inning loss to the division rival Cubs on September 28th, the St. Louis Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time the club has missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 2007-2008. However, the future of the organization looks bright. An invasion of talent from the minor leagues came up this season to support a core of proven veterans, and the continued development of that fresh crop of talent alone will probably help the team take a step forward. The Cardinals have a deep roster and a bit of wiggle room in their payroll to fill in the gaps, including a potential big one in the rotation should free agent starter Lance Lynn decide to sign elsewhere.

While many were surprised at the Cardinals’ pessimistic preseason PECOTA projection, the club ended up finishing 83-79, good for third in the NL Central. But the team scored 761 runs while allowing 705, putting their pythagorean record at 87-75. If this record is a better reflection of the club’s true talent, then it’s easy to imagine that the Cardinals only need a little retooling to make it back to the playoffs in 2018. They have an astonishingly deep MLB roster, and equally impressive vertical depth in the upper minors.

That’s good news for manager Mike Matheny and the Cardinals’ front office… the club hasn’t missed the playoffs in three straight seasons since before the turn of the century. The expectations of St. Louis fans are always high, and there’s probably at least some pressure not to disappoint them for a third consecutive year.

One question facing the Cardinals is whether or not they ought to bring back Lance Lynn. They’ll first need to decide whether or not to give him a qualifying offer, which is set at $17.4MM this year. Lynn’s 4.82 FIP and 10.1% walk rate in 2017 were both career highs, while his 19.7% strikeout rate was a career low. Part of that could possibly be attributed to Lynn losing a full mile per hour on his fastball after missing all of 2016 due to a torn UCL and resulting Tommy John surgery. However, his actual results (3.43 ERA across 186 1/3 innings) were typically strong, and Lynn has a great track record of success in the majors. From 2012 through 2015, the right-hander posted a 60-38 record and was worth 13 fWAR, never pitching fewer than 175 innings.

Since the Cardinals did not receive revenue sharing in 2017, they wouldn’t be eligible to receive a compensatory pick after the first round under MLB’s new qualifying offer system if Lynn declines a QO. Instead, they’d receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the draft’s second round. Regardless, Lynn’s earning power is likely to be far more than $17.4MM in total guarantees, so the likelihood that he’ll decline a QO should be incentive enough for the Cards to offer him one and acquire the draft pick (and corresponding bonus pool money).

Wainwright, the longtime franchise icon, hasn’t been the same since missing most of the 2015 season due to a ruptured Achilles tendon. 2017 was his worst season ever, though his peripherals suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his 5.11 ERA would indicate. Still, he missed significant time with elbow and back injuries. The four-time Cy Young vote-earner seems to no longer be a reliable rotation option, and while the club doesn’t seem interested in spending money to back Lynn, they could potentially look to dole out a one-year deal to a veteran swingman type who could pitch out of the bullpen while Wainwright is healthy. Mike Minor, Francisco Liriano and Wade Miley are potential options in that arena. It’s also possible that the Cards could sign a more reliable starter on a short-term deal, and have Weaver or Flaherty begin the season at Triple-A. However, with three high-upside arms (including Reyes) itching to prove themselves at the major league level, it’s somewhat difficult — albeit hardly impossible — to imagine the Cardinals shelling out significant dollars on a long-term contract for a top-tier or even second-tier free agent starter. If anything, they have enough prospect depth to attempt a trade for Gerrit Cole or Michael Fulmer. Still, they have the payroll space to go after Yu Darvish or Jake Arrieta, for example, and over the course of the offseason there are many scenarios that could leave them wanting to inquire on those names.

With Seung Hwan Oh and Juan Nicasio set to become free agents, and Trevor Rosenthal a good bet to be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals bullpen will require some attention this offseason. Oh was mostly ineffective in 2017, but the club might seriously consider a reunion with Nicasio, who served as their closer during the final days of the season after joining the team in September. Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia, Brett Cecil, Matt Bowman, Sam Tuivailala and the hard-throwing Sandy Alcantara all pitched well during this past season and are all under contract for 2018; that group alone is a great start.

Whether the club brings back Nicasio or not, they might be interested in a free agent relief ace to close out games. They’re likely to at least inquire on Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Wade Davis. Spending big on top-tier relievers isn’t something the Cardinals have done historically, however. It’s arguably more likely they’ll give out a cheaper multi-year deal to a proven, high-upside reliever without the marquee closer price tag, like they did when they signed Brett Cecil last year. I’d expect them to be in on Bryan Shaw in particular, especially if they bring Nicasio back. Joe Smith, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek are some other relievers they’ll probably be in on. There are plenty of late-inning options on the trade market as well. A while back, MLBTR’s own Jeff Todd took a look at the Cardinals’ late-inning reliever situation, and explored all potential options in an in-depth MLBTR original.

The Cardinals’ position player depth chart is as deep as any you’ll see in the major leagues. Seven different St. Louis hitters accumulated at least 2 WAR in 2017, which ties the Dodgers for most in the majors. The one area that was lacking in production for the Cardinals was right field. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk were both below-average hitters in 2017 by wRC+. It’s too soon to give up on either one, especially considering they’re both just 26 and were both above-average players last season. It’s also worth noting that Piscotty is signed through 2022, so the club is committed to him in a sense.

That being said, the Cards need more overall production and could enter the offseason willing to part with some depth in favor of quality. Their right field situation could put the Cardinals in the mix for Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins. It’s been rumored that Miami could try and get out from under the remaining ten years and $295MM on Stanton’s contract, and St. Louis is one of very few teams with both the prospect depth and financial resources to pay up for last year’s home run champ. I wouldn’t expect them to overpay in terms of prospects, but if Stanton does get traded, St. Louis is as good a landing spot as any. And for a contending team, he could be willing to waive his no-trade clause.

As for Ozuna, he’d come with just two years of team control, but would cost a lot more in terms of prospects. The Cardinals have two Triple-A outfielders who rank within MLB pipeline’s top 100 prospects (Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader) and are seemingly blocked at the major league level for the near future. But neither seems to have the type of upside needed to bring back a hitter of Ozuna’s caliber. Their more valuable prospects (Reyes, Flaherty and catcher Carson Kelly) will all be relied upon at the major league level this season. I’d imagine that St. Louis will inquire on Ozuna, but that a trade is unlikely to materialize.

Any trade for a right fielder would make Grichuk an obvious trade candidate. Indeed, even if they don’t acquire an outside player, it would seem that the Cardinals don’t really have a need for Grichuk. Piscotty is under contract for at least the next four years, Tommy Pham was the team’s best player by WAR in 2017, while Dexter Fowler is owed $66MM through 2021. Grichuk is projected to make $2.8MM in his first trip through arbitration, and although those dollars won’t force the Cards’ hand, Bader or Magneuris Sierra would fill a fourth outfielder role at the league minimum salary. O’Neill is close to major-league ready as well.

Grichuk has solid power; he’s hit 66 home runs across 1,386 major league plate appearances. His plate discipline, however, has been the cause of multiple demotions since his first call-up in 2014. With a 30% strikeout rate for his career against just a 6% walk rate, Grichuk has mustered just a .297 OBP during his time in the majors. Still, with his power upside and impressive work with the glove, there are plenty of teams could be willing to take a chance on him.

Trading Grichuk is just one of a few routes the Cardinals could go in order to make use of a surplus of talent on their 40-man roster. The Redbirds have a surprisingly deep collection of solid talent on their expanded roster, but they might consider a number of moves aimed at consolidating that solid talent into elite talent. Though they have four players set to become free agents, they have a number of factors they’ll need to take into consideration in regards to their roster this winter.

Reyes will need to be re-added to the 40-man when he comes off the 60-day DL. While that might not seem like a big deal in and of itself, things get far more complicated when one considers that the Rule 5 Draft is fast approaching. In recent years, the Cardinals have lost high-upside players like Luis Perdomo and Allen Cordoba to the Padres. This season, they have another three players who rank within their top 20 prospects that will become vulnerable to being plucked away by another club, on the condition that they be kept on that new club’s 25-man roster for the entire 2018 season. No. 86 overall prospect O’Neill is a sure bet to claim a spot, while lefty Austin Gomber and outfielder Oscar Mercado might be deemed worthy of protection as well.

So St. Louis faces a tough set of questions in regards to their expanded roster. If they add all four of the above youngsters to the 40-man, those players would take the roster spots of all four of their outgoing free agents. At that point, they’d need to begin designating a player for assignment with each free agent signing they make this winter. If they don’t add Gomber or Mercado, they risk losing either or both for a paltry $50K apiece. So we certainly shouldn’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up trading multiple prospects for a single talented major league player early in the offseason, or even if they end up trading someone like Grichuk or Aledmys Diaz for minor league talent.

In recent seasons, the Cardinals have given out long-term contract extensions to young core players. Before the 2017 season, they extended both Martinez and Piscotty. The year prior, they gave second baseman Kolten Wong a contract extension. Going into 2018, there aren’t many players that fit the bill for this type of deal. Tommy Pham would seem like an obvious candidate at first glance, but he’s already 29, so the club might be better served to ride his contract out through arbitration. Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez performed well in 2017, but both have less than a full season’s worth of MLB experience; there’s no rush to lock either player up. The best extension candidate for St. Louis might be right-handed starter Michael Wacha, if they think he has turned a corner, although it’s worth noting that Tyler Lyons could get a consideration as a breakout lefty reliever.

The offseason path for the Cardinals will be one of the most difficult to predict in all of Major League Baseball. They don’t have any glaring holes on their roster, but they’re in need of some upgrades overall. They could make those upgrades in a number of different places and have the resources in payroll space, prospect depth and major league talent necessary to get something done. Count on a busy winter for the front office in St. Louis.

Lance Lynn’s ERA was mentioned as well, and Wainwright’s ERA was used to say that it looks bad but his peripherals suggested better results. FIP and fWAR are peripheral stats. So all the stats you mentioned are at least accounted for in the analysis of the two players.

The more and more I read about Stanton the more I see the Cardinals getting him…of course Stanton will have to approve the trade…but if the cardinals make significant moves ( which they already have concerning coaches) then I think Stanton would consider St. Louis…even if it’s not on the coast…I only see the dodgers as a a team to rival them…let me know if I’m wrong? But they have enough talent to overwhelm the marlins and the money to make it happen…not only that but the motivation

I think Stanton would enjoy the idea of showing up and immediately being “the” player, or the star. Currently the Marlins have some of the lowest viewing and attendance numbers so there isn’t as much support there. You put Stanton in STL and everyone would be covered in Stanton gear. The Cardinals are closer to contending than the Giants or Phillies, and I’m doubtful the dodgers would want his contract, which seems to be the Marlins primary driving point. Seems most likely.

The dodgers have to pay Kershaw after next year…and most teams are waiting to see about this 2018 FA class I believe…so most big market teams stay quiet and the cardinals are the only real team to agree to take on most of the contract and best group of prospects…especially te pitching prospect the marlins want and need…Stanton wants to contend so the cardinals sway him by other significant moves and he agrees to come aboard…sounds legit

I agree…but I would think wainwright should at least try the bullpen…what will happen to him after this year? I don’t think he has a spot with the cardinals unless he proves he can pitch out the pen…idk

To add on to your comment, I’m pretty sure Cards have MORE than enough to get Stanton and another big contract. DeWitt has stated as much. STL won’t have Dodgers level of money, but we get reach near 180-190 by the end of 2019, especially if it’s for two superstar-caliber players.

Wainwriht will always have a place with the cardinals, be it as a starter, in the bullpen, or eventually as a coach or in the front office. He represents so much of the fan base with his convictions and general good guyness that organization wont leave him in the cold. That said I believe he serves depth to start the season in the rotation but hopefully smoltzes himself and becomes a lockdown reliever for the playoffs.

That’s an extremely idealistic scenario…..IMHO
I actually think he’s damaged beyond repair. I don’t believe that he’ll ever be a “Lock-Down” anything going forward. He’s had a TJS and a torn Achillies heel.

He’s an icon in St Louis, no doubt. Just don’t give out another “Gift Contract” like the one to Yadi (they way over-paid on that one).

I’m Not suggesting that they “leave him out in the cold”, but his days of dominating on a baseball field are probably over. I’d hate to see him “Play To Long” like many athletes do, and they change they way they are viewed forever.

And the Cardinals DO have a TON of money……..but they Never Spend It. DeWitt likes his pockets full.

I hope I’m WAY off base on everything here…..and that Waino earns his paycheck, Mo makes an enormous trade (preferably Stanton), and they sign another stud SP.

If Stanton wants to accept a trade to St Louis…….(Full No-Trade Clause)….I’d agree that somebody out there has to go. Marlins won’t want Piscotty or Dex because they are cutting payroll. Pham is actually “too much to give up”. Grich is an excellent candidate, but starts his ARB clock in ’18.

I think it’s more like O’Neill, Hudson, and Sosa/Perez going to the Marlins, Piscotty moving back to 1B, Carp to 2B, and someone at 3B….LOL (Gyorko/Wong/Diaz/Wisdom)

I see Hudson as the pitcher…I’ve read that the marlins scouted him so that’s why I assume that…O’Neill because it replaces Stanton with high upside and if the cardinals must another outfielder to sweeten the deal…line the article says they might as well unload because they are so deep that players are in trouble of not being on the roster and taken in the rule 5 draft…but it’s up to Stanton…I don’t think many teams are a better fit then these two

Hopefully Carp works on his defense and his base running (he was horrible in ’17….and that isn’t because of any shoulder problems). Lots of fans are calling for him to be traded. I don’t think Voit is ready, but if they trade for Stanton, where does Piscotty Play??? They need an upgrade at 3B. Hope Wisdom continues to rake in AAA……and gets a chance to show whether or not he can hit MLB pitching by mid-season.

What evidence do you have that carpenter was horrible on defense at first base where he played almost the whole season? Also why does piscotty have to play? If he’s not one of the 3 best outfielders he shouldn’t be on the field. The contract he has is a sunk cost, it’s getting paid no matter what. Only the best players should play regardless of how much they make.

Piscotty goes to the bench until/if he hits his way back into the lineup.

Why do they need an upgrade at 3B? Gyorko was great there both offensively and defensively last year. Unless he’s traded (or Wong or Carpenter are traded with Gyorko moving to their positions), he’ll be back again as the starting 3B.

That would be something if they got Stanton, but that’s a move I just don’t see Mo making. For years Mo has promised big changes, but we have yet to see an actual HUGE impact move. Will this be the season? Probably not but who knows

Heyward was an 8 fWAR upgrade for 2015 over 2014.. That’s a HUGE impact move. Fowler was the best free agent available in that class (Turner and Jansen weren’t leaving LA). They made club record breaking contract offers to both Heyward and Price. Glad they both went elsewhere. Trading for and extending Holliday were HUGE impact moves.

My guess: Cardinals don’t mess with the Free Agent market til 2018-2019 offseason. They may sign Nicasio or a 2nd-tier setup man, but they may rather save that money for someone like Donaldson or Machado. (especially Machado). I think the big bat this offseason will come via trade. Stanton, Yelich, or Ozuna make sense. Trading Grichuk in exchange for a closer with some team as well? Idk, I hope there actually is a significant change in the lineup, can’t rollout with “in-house” options and expect to win the division, or even make the playoffs.

Re-sign Nicasio (3/36?)
Add a mid level reliever (Shaw was a good suggestion)
Find a starter to be there in case Wainwright can’t start and needs to go the pen (that fringe starter/long reliever vet)
Wisdom and Diaz to San Diego for minor league filler and opening up 40 man spots for guys like Mercado.

He also mentioned adding 2-3 relievers which would upgrade the bullpen. Adding an MVP candidate hitter and upgrading the bullpen would put the cardinals in a solid spot for contention. They almost got lucky and made the playoffs without those pieces this past year. I’m not sure where you think we will find all these impact bats and still be able to fortify the bullpen and/or the rotation.

They were a pyth 87 win team last year. Adding a 5-7 win player to play a position worth 1-3 wins typically makes them a 91 win team. That’s a playoff team.

Also, don’t forget about guys like Reyes, Weaver, and other talented stock getting to play and that the team created a lot of its value from guys who spent ample time in AAA last year that will get more chances in 2018. The road to improvement isn’t long for the Cards. Plus, they would retain a ton of financial flexibility for in season and next off-season improvements.

JFactor I really like this assessment of what the cards can do this offseason. I think a lot of this hinges on what wainwright is capable of. Since that’s a huge question mark, I’m more of the opinion we should sign a #3 or 4 starter instead of the swing man and leave Flaherty in AAA to start the season. But if the cardinals followed your plan to the T I think a lot of cards fans would be happy and the team would have a great shot at contention.

I doubt Stanton could be talked into waiving his no trade deal and come to St. Louis. I see him in Dodger Blue. They really don’t care how much they spend. The Cards will probably bolster their bull pen and little else. It isn’t that they wouldn’t like to add some punch, but their AAA roster offers just as much as anything they could get on the market. I like the additions of Holland and Morrow. Stay patient as frustrating as that can be.

I’d go ahead and trade Flaherty as the centerpiece to get Ozuna. With Reyes coming back and plenty of good pitchers still on the farm, they’ll just need to sign some short-term veteran depth to help fill in after Martinez, Wainwright, Wacha, Weaver, and Reyes.