Wednesday, January 26, 2011

The slow starting GOP contest

A lot has gone on with the potential 2012 Presidential contenders over the last year. They've given speeches, written books, generated controversy, you name it. One thing they haven't done? Move the poll numbers at all in Iowa or New Hampshire. Nothing that's gone on during this sort of pre-campaign has seriously moved the needle for the Republican primary in either of those states.

First consider Iowa. We polled there in late May and then again this month. Here's how the candidates' standing compares between then and now:

Candidate

May 2010

January 2011

Shift

Mike Huckabee

27%

30%

+3

Sarah Palin

17%

15%

-2

Newt Gingrich

16%

13%

-3

Mitt Romney

15%

18%

+3

Ron Paul

7%

6%

-1

John Thune

2%

3%

+1

No one who was included in both polls has seen their support rise or fall more than 3 points, movement that is certainly within the margin of error.

It's a similar story in New Hampshire where we first polled the Republican field in April of last year and most recently looked at it at the very end of October:

Candidate

April 2010

October 2010

Shift

Mitt Romney

39%

40%

+1

Mike Huckabee

11%

13%

+2

Newt Gingrich

11%

10%

-1

Sarah Palin

13%

10%

-3

Tim Pawlenty

3%

4%

+1

Just like in Iowa no one's moved more than three points in any direction. That's just noise.

Voters in the key early states just aren't paying any attention to all of the machinations going on right now, or if they are paying much attention it's not doing anything to shift their preferences. That tells us a couple things. First, nothing any of the potential 2012 contenders have done over the last year has had any impact on average Republican voters...any difference any of it has made has just been with insiders. Second, it means the GOP race is about as wide open as can be. The fact that none of the well known Republicans who are constantly in the spotlight have done anything to move their numbers makes it much easier for one of the darkhorse candidates who currently has little name recognition to make a move as they become better known over the next year.

The slow start to the 2012 nomination contest is definitely increasing the chances that someone who is currently a lower profile candidate can end up getting the nod to run against Barack Obama.