Elway: If no deal, Broncos will use franchise tag on Demaryius Thomas

Douglas LeeFeb 19, 2015 3:44 PM

During his Thursday presser from the combine, someone apparently asked John Elway a question not related to Peyton Manning's status for 2015. How dare they, right? Anyway, Elway confirmed that Denver will use its franchise tag on Demaryius Thomas if they two sides are unable to reach a longterm agreement by the March 2 tag deadline.

The franchise tender for wideouts should be somewhere around $13M for one year. Once the tag is applied, Demaryius and Denver will face a July 15 deadline to sign a longterm deal. As far as signing the tender - which makes it fully guaranteed - it will be in Thomas's best interest to hold off on that until that July deadline.

Doug is IAOFM’s resident newsman and spelling czar. Follow him on Twitter @IAOFM

Your last sentence makes a lot of sense. I am wondering if Denver had planned to keep JT before he self-destructed - and not DT. I think they will want to keep one or the other.

Posted by BlackKnigh on 2015-02-21 06:02:30

No. Hopefully, you will feel differently when the season rolls around again. There is always some reason for hope. Even during the dark days of McD, there was always something. I will stop being a Bronco fan when I'm dead.

Posted by Alaskan on 2015-02-20 10:20:07

I really wanted to see at least a little Latimer action last year so I could seriously consider letting DT go. Hard to have too much confidence in practice performance alone.

Posted by macomment on 2015-02-20 10:13:26

I believe Cecil Shorts will make some shrewd team very happy next season.

Posted by Yahmule on 2015-02-20 09:48:08

This is an interesting take. Thanks for the link.

Posted by laosuan on 2015-02-20 09:08:10

I think the biggest difference is that the comps referred to have typically been #2 guys that either weren't facing the top CBs, or were less efficient when they did. The most successful of them have also succeeded relatively well without Manning too (Garçon, Decker) as #1s on big contracts, so it's not like we're talking about untalented players.

I think while Manning is around and playing at a high level, we could succeed without a true #1 WR. He's adept enough at finding the open guy on the 3rd or 4th read that you don't need a world beater at WR, just competence. But once he's gone, Oz or the successor will appreciate having a true safety blanket and playmaker to rely on more often than not on the 1st or 2nd read. DT has already shown that ability winning it for us with Tebow.

What you don't want is to end up like KC, Carolina, or even San Fran and have limited outside game, even with competent QB play... And none of them even made the playoffs despite substantial talent on both sides of the ball. He lists Pitt as a comp to follow, but they have a near-HoF caliber QB, and Brown from his rookie year was described as their best all around WR and his comparative efficiency stats reflected that... So letting Wallace and Sanders walk is more comparable to us letting Decker go, which was the right call. Pitt isn't letting Brown walk. Now sure, if Latimer is our Brown, then let DT walk... But that's a hard thing to say about a guy who couldn't crack the active roster on game day as a rookie... So we should at least franchise DT this year and let the rookie show it on the field before letting DT go.

Posted by cjfarls on 2015-02-19 22:03:30

I don't root against any Bronco. But the Broncos and Avs seem to always go a different direction when it comes to my favorites. I finally lost my passion for the NHL, and I'm running out of NFL gas.

Posted by drewthorn on 2015-02-19 21:24:59

This article tells me that the FA market for WR isn't going to be all that exciting. Based on Rotoworld's list, you can pretty much draw a line after number 5 in terms of potential number 1 receivers:

I don't see the other four moving anywhere. Beyond them, I don't see anyone on the list who I think is capable of being the 2015 version of Emmanual Sanders -- they're mainly WR2 quality guys, or former WR1 who are aging out.

In a so-so FA market, it makes sense to use the franchise tag on DT this year if Manning is coming back. Then next year you can either give him the big multi-year contract if Peyton retires and frees up some cap room.

I totally understand this. I felt this way during the dark days of Wade Phillips as head couch coach. I was waiting for Elway to retire, then I was going to as well. Then TD joined the team, and I had someone else to root for. For me, it is likely there will always be someone in orange who I can root for, and no-one (or very few) that I would root against.

Posted by DCJ1 on 2015-02-19 20:56:13

I - and maybe I'm naive - don't see a ridiculous megadeal coming. I feel like - while QB salaries are going through the roof - teams are learning not to break the bank on other players. I think Calvin Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald money is out of the question because - particularly with Megatron - nobody has since approached that kind of cash. Since Fitzgerald signed in 2011 and Johnson signed in 2012 - both for about $113M - no receiver has signed for even $70 million. I don't see that changing too much.

I think, more realistically, there will be a 5 year deal worth between $50M and $60M or a 6 year deal worth between $60 and $70. Comps, I would assume, would be Mike Wallace's bomb of a contract ($60M/5 years $30M guaranteed) Harvin ($64.2M/6 years with $14M guaranteed) Dwayne Bowe ($56M/5 year with $20M guaranteed) and Vincent Jackson ($55.6M/5 year $26 million).

I know that the easy counter point would be that "Well, DT is better than those guy." No shit. None of the teams that signed these deals thought they were getting fleeced, but one of them already traded the player, one has subject of constant rumors to cut the player, and one is paying Dwayne Bowe. I think teams will learn their lesson and - while it won't prevent teams for making $11-$12m deals for Bryant or Thomas - there is little reason why they should feel like they need to outpace failures like the Wallace deal.

I'd predict something like $70M/6 years with $30M guaranteed for Thomas. Pure dollars wise, it'd be the third richest ever and tied for second most guarantees - but not the $13-$15 million annual figures some may be thinking.

Posted by Drew on 2015-02-19 18:24:33

Yeah, but like you said above, DT is kind of a special guy: The sort of rare mix of talent and humility that I'm, at least, proud to have on my team.Besides, I thiink his overall part in Manning's Denver fortunes has been vastly under appreciated by many Denver fans.

Posted by drewthorn on 2015-02-19 18:22:07

It's tough because the two SB teams had a bunch of nobody's in their WR corps. Also, it seems like aggregating your funds into a few players doesn't always seem like a recipe for success on its own. But, you do have to have go to players. Seattle has Lynch for example. When you need it, he comes up big. You pay for that. DT is a special talent, I'm little less convinced on what's between his ears. But in the end, I think locking the guy up for 4ish years is a sound investment.

Posted by Rhett Rothberg on 2015-02-19 17:31:22

It's a balancing act though, other fans might be saying the same thing about JT or Knighton, Denver can't sign all of them. IMO letting him go without at least offering him a non slap face deal, would make me pretty upset.

Not offering him a deal or lowballing him would make me upset, now if he chooses to run to Oakland for an ungodly amount of money I can't blame Denver.

I wasn't that upset with letting Decker walk last year but I'm sure some fans were. IMO Denver determined he wasn't worth even an offer and I was ok with that.

Posted by T. Jensen on 2015-02-19 17:28:35

I think I'll eventually.walk over the mecenary nature of the NFL. Letting DT go would be an instant catalyst. I'm not in it to just root for a logo and laundry.

Posted by drewthorn on 2015-02-19 17:12:01

One thing that article does not mention, is YAC. DT has led the league or been close to it every year since Manning. Are those other guys doing that? I don't know off the top of my head but that would suggest DT is responsible for a larger percentage of those numbers than the previous Manning receivers. Also PM has been hurt for at least 30-50% of the last two seasons. Yet he is still putting up better numbers with DT than the other guys. I don't think the effect follows the cause in this particular analysis.

Posted by Duhast on 2015-02-19 17:11:09

I definitely agree with your first statement. His story is so compelling, and I'm happy for him that he will soon get his big payday and be able to do what he's always wanted to do for his family.As for your second point, that's the tricky question. Is the difference between Oz/Sanders/Thomas and Oz/Sanders/Latimer $10 million per season?

Posted by OrangeMadness on 2015-02-19 16:56:03

What makes it hard is the fact that DT is so dang likable on and off the field. He has a great background\comefrombehind story. He has maintained a great level of humility. He produces great numbers. His teammates appear to like and respect him. He's had no off the field antics. I could probably go on for awhile but you get the point. He's a fan favorite and worthy of it.

The thing the article doesn't take into consideration is Manning won't be here for long. Oz is going to need somebody to rely on and I'm not sure the next man up issue is right for the Broncos at this moment. I hope Latimer is all that and a bag of chips but I just don't know yet. Its really hard to tell if his lack of being gameday active was due to talent\attitude\Fox.

Posted by T. Jensen on 2015-02-19 16:36:48

That's kind of where I'm at, too.

Posted by OrangeMadness on 2015-02-19 16:34:33

But I bought his jersey for my son!?Seriously, this does make you think twice.

Posted by 53guys on 2015-02-19 16:34:06

Hmmm, that is interesting..... I don't like it! But it is interesting.

Posted by Carsonic on 2015-02-19 16:13:33

I, too, don't know if i agree or not, but it certainly makes you think. I always thought signing DT was a no brainer, now I'm not so sure.

Posted by DougEngland on 2015-02-19 16:08:14

Here's one person's argument for why the Broncos should let DT walk away. I'm not endorsing this position, but am merely providing a link if anyone is interested.