Apple TV won't be a TV at all...I will explain

macrumors 6502

I've been very amused reading all the posts about the new Apple TV that Apple is working on. What amuses me most is when people post things like "how big will it be 40, 60inches or will it have a remote, or will it be a retina screen". These are all valid questions but come from people that really don't know how to think like Apple. The Apple TV we will see, the one Apple is working on will not be a TV at all...let me explain

Let me start by pointing out the possibility that there is no money in creating TV hardware for Apple, in fact thats the big argument on why some people say an Apple TV is just not going to happen. Thats partly true. Lets think about it...an actual Apple TV would be cool. Have a nice screen or maybe no screen at all, nice lines, great design and work perfect with the iOS ecosystem. But thats not what they are going to do. See, thats not where the money is and it makes ZERO sense for apple to play on the hardware end of things, they already tried with the current Apple TV. Its going to be bigger than that and where everybody is getting tripped up is on the word "TV". Apple knows there are already millions of TVs out there, very nice ones in fact that they can tie into their already existing ecosystem. Apple's main goal is to tie everybody into the iOS and Mac OS ecosystem period, and selling TVs won't do it. Let me explain what they will do...and why they will do it

The main spin and new idea behind Apple TV besides tying directly into iOS is it will have a VERY STRONG SOCIAL AND PERSONAL element to it. Apple TV will be a "social broadcast". everybody will be their own channel and your iOS devise will be your station. You will create playlists of TV shows from various existing networks that suit your needs and THAT becomes your channel. It will be able to be broadcast right from the cloud using your iphone or ipad and a nearby TV connected via hardwire or with a small wireless attachment. Now lets looks at how this will revolutionize TV...

First is the ability to share channels that you create. You can share them with your friends, you can share them between iOS devices. You can subscribe to other people's channel playlists. You can subscribe to Bono's TV network or playlist and see what he watches. TV statins will be ranked and popularity of certain ones will rise up (ahhh think what that means for advertisers). The other cool element of this is how TV shows will change. Lets think app store for a minute. Think of all the new small guy developers that have access to hitting it big with a great app! They create and app, its distributed through apples itunes ecosystem and they share revenue with Apple. Ok now think TV...Imagine how people are going to be able to create their own TV shows, mini series and movies all distributed on iTunes just like apps with Apple sharing the profit. Imagine among all the bad TV shows that will come how how many AMAZING ones we will see. The popular ones will rise to the top, just like apps. We will see a new breed of major TV series come out this way. Some very promising shows will even be picked up by TV networks with big contracts and profits to be made by their creators. All the while, TV networks shows will still be available too...this is create news for all of us because our shows will no longer be controlled by the limited creativity of the TV networks anymore, the floodgates will be opened!...This is going to change the entire landscape even down to the popularity of main stream shows and actors.

Lets look at another advantage to this over current TV and how this will benefit advertisers, Networks and Apple and even us as the end user. Imagine watching American Idol on your Apple Tv network and being able to do live realtime voting during the show using your iphone (WHILE THE SHOW IS STILL PLAYING), or buying a song right from GLEE in iTunes that moment, or how about playing from home as a contestant on wheel of fortune, or helping to collectively solve a murder on CSI. All TV shows will have App like functionality built in and can be interacted with at anytime. This will be amazing for the TV networks to engage their audience and advertisers to target consumers and for everybody to have an amazing new TV viewing experience all through Apple TV. Im sure you all all familiar with Apples iAD network they have running in apps right now...that will be carried over to Apple TV but become more powerful and engaging. This is all very exciting stuff isn't it?!

Now lets looks a bit deeper into advertising. Lets say joe shmo creates his Apple TV network with 18 shows in it and 10 are cooking shows, 4 car shows, and 4 fishing shows. Apple can now exactly pinpoint what type of advertising to send to joe while he is watching his network. he wont see a tampon commercial like he does now...instead he might see a Ford commercial. right now advertisers are sorta taking a shot in the dark, not anymore. There is nothing more profitable than targeted advertising. So this is a HUGE incentive for Apple, Advertisers and the networks. Advertising dollars is what gave birth to Google. its BIG BIG $$$, much more than making a 60inch cool looking TV set.

So in short Apple TV wont be a TV at all. It will be a purely social personal shareable TV network experience leveraging existing TVs, interfaced and controlled with iPhones and iPads possibly using SIRI. It will consist of traditional network TV content along with a whole new group of socially and grass roots created content created TV shows of varying quality. We will be served targeted advertising based on our show selection.

Lastly this is where others cannot compete. Apple already has the ecosystem in place with iphones, ipads, itunes...Sony, Microsoft, even Google will be left behind because in order for this to work, a strong ecosystem has in be in place and Apple is the only one that has it.

macrumors 68030

Kind of like how Apple doesn't sell stand alone displays because there are already tons of them out there from different manufacturers?

From the software point of view, I'm guessing you might be right, it will probably be a very socially interactive and cloud based system. But by tying this into a television set with the typical Apple design will give them the possibility of having huge markups and make a lot of money.

Think about it. If they're reinventing the whole TV experience, why would they sell it as a set top box which will be a lot more limited than a TV would be? To reach out to the broad mass? It's not really their style, now is it?

Looking at their history, their products and everything that is Apple - a television with everything that will be the new Apple TV integrated will be such a kick in the nut sack of basically every single television and set top manufacturer out there, in a way that a new and revamped set top box could never be. And it would fit their business model perfectly, something that the ATVs don't.

And oh, claiming they've already tried it by pointing at the ATVs? And saying a set top box is more likely than a TV because they want to tie everyone in to their OS's, without even almost thinking about the fact that they don't allow ANYONE except for themselves to use OS X in their computers? Dude, lay of the speed.

thread startermacrumors 6502

Kind of like how Apple doesn't sell stand alone displays because there are already tons of them out there from different manufacturers?

From the software point of view, I'm guessing you might be right, it will probably be a very socially interactive and cloud based system. But by tying this into a television set with the typical Apple design will give them the possibility of having huge markups and make a lot of money.

Think about it. If they're reinventing the whole TV experience, why would they sell it as a set top box which will be a lot more limited than a TV would be? To reach out to the broad mass? It's not really their style, now is it?

Looking at their history, their products and everything that is Apple - a television with everything that will be the new Apple TV integrated will be such a kick in the nut sack of basically every single television and set top manufacturer out there, in a way that a new and revamped set top box could never be. And it would fit their business model perfectly, something that the ATVs don't.

And oh, claiming they've already tried it by pointing at the ATVs? And saying a set top box is more likely than a TV because they want to tie everyone in to their OS's, without even almost thinking about the fact that they don't allow ANYONE except for themselves to use OS X in their computers? Dude, lay of the speed.

Click to expand...

Tying it to expensive single purpose TV hardware right out of the gate will significantly limit growth and adoption of Apple TV and probably kill it...

They absolutely WILL make a killing off hardware still, by selling a ton of Apple TV enabled iPads and iPhones. When iPhone 5 comes out and is Apple TV capable you better believe they are going to sell a heck of a lot more iphone 5s than TVs and the profit margin is just as high if not higher with the iPhone and iPad than a TV...

rest assured Apple is not making a TV, they are creating an entirely new TV experience

macrumors 6502a

Silly concept. The networks will never sign on as throwing away their brand has no upside for them whatsoever.

TVs are not personal devices needing to be made social. They're already social. They're watched by families. If you think the problem with your TV is that its just not that into you, you might want to get outside a bit more.

macrumors 68030

Tying it to expensive single purpose TV hardware right out of the gate will significantly limit growth and adoption of Apple TV and probably kill it...

They absolutely WILL make a killing off hardware still, by selling a ton of Apple TV enabled iPads and iPhones. When iPhone 5 comes out and is Apple TV capable you better believe they are going to sell a heck of a lot more iphone 5s than TVs and the profit margin is just as high if not higher with the iPhone and iPad than a TV...

rest assured Apple is not making a TV, they are creating an entirely new TV experience

Click to expand...

Shouldn't sales of iMacs and ACDS have died out a long time ago if your argument had any bearing?

Also, I don't think you're quite aware of how many TVs are actually being sold, despite so many people already having them. The market isn't dead, it's waiting to be reinvented. Just as a lot of people threw out their old TVs when the flat screens first came out, despite the absolutely ridiculous prices, a lot of people will switch to an eventual Apple TV set if they manage to reinvent the TV experience and put it in a television. No matter the price. People don't want set top boxes, and releasing it as a software is not even on the map. It's going to be hardware, it's going to be expensive, and they're going to absolutely dominate the early adopter-segment of the market.

They're not out to own the entire laptop market by offering cheap laptops, nor will they be interested in going after a huge chunk of the TV market. But they will most likely go after, and succeed, the piece of the market that spends loads of money. Those are the people who buy Apple.

iPhone and iPad sales won't be affected by a television set, or vice versa. Just the idea of a new Apple TV being an app in an iPhone with which you will revamp your existing TV is, well, ridiculous.

Silly concept. The networks will never sign on as throwing away their brand has no upside for them whatsoever.

TVs are not personal devices needing to be made social. They're already social. They're watched by families. If you think the problem with your TV is that its just not that into you, you might want to get outside a bit more.

Click to expand...

Televisions are anything but social, my friend. It's a one way communication device that kills the interaction in the family's you're talking about. Or do you mean that in your family, you have more, longer and more intense discussions by the TV than by for instance the dinner table?

macrumors 6502a

I don't have a problem with flavr's vision of a new TV world. I just don't think it will happen.

As may have been indicated by my earlier question, I don't see why the content providers (CBS/NBC/ABC/etc.) would provide their content to this new system. The answer "more precise laser target ad revenue" is unpersuasive to me - if that were the case, CBS/NBC/ABC/etc. would have jumped onto other models that offer similar advantages - Hulu, their own web sites, YouTube, or iTunes.

macrumors 6502a

I've been very amused reading all the posts about the new Apple TV that Apple is working on. What amuses me most is when people post things like "how big will it be 40, 60inches or will it have a remote, or will it be a retina screen". These are all valid questions but come from people that really don't know how to think like Apple. The Apple TV we will see, the one Apple is working on will not be a TV at all...let me explain

Let me start by pointing out the possibility that there is no money in creating TV hardware for Apple, in fact thats the big argument on why some people say an Apple TV is just not going to happen. Thats partly true. Lets think about it...an actual Apple TV would be cool. Have a nice screen or maybe no screen at all, nice lines, great design and work perfect with the iOS ecosystem. But thats not what they are going to do. See, thats not where the money is and it makes ZERO sense for apple to play on the hardware end of things, they already tried with the current Apple TV. Its going to be bigger than that and where everybody is getting tripped up is on the word "TV". Apple knows there are already millions of TVs out there, very nice ones in fact that they can tie into their already existing ecosystem. Apple's main goal is to tie everybody into the iOS and Mac OS ecosystem period, and selling TVs won't do it. Let me explain what they will do...and why they will do it

The main spin and new idea behind Apple TV besides tying directly into iOS is it will have a VERY STRONG SOCIAL AND PERSONAL element to it. Apple TV will be a "social broadcast". everybody will be their own channel and your iOS devise will be your station. You will create playlists of TV shows from various existing networks that suit your needs and THAT becomes your channel. It will be able to be broadcast right from the cloud using your iphone or ipad and a nearby TV connected via hardwire or with a small wireless attachment. Now lets looks at how this will revolutionize TV...

First is the ability to share channels that you create. You can share them with your friends, you can share them between iOS devices. You can subscribe to other people's channel playlists. You can subscribe to Bono's TV network or playlist and see what he watches. TV statins will be ranked and popularity of certain ones will rise up (ahhh think what that means for advertisers). The other cool element of this is how TV shows will change. Lets think app store for a minute. Think of all the new small guy developers that have access to hitting it big with a great app! They create and app, its distributed through apples itunes ecosystem and they share revenue with Apple. Ok now think TV...Imagine how people are going to be able to create their own TV shows, mini series and movies all distributed on iTunes just like apps with Apple sharing the profit. Imagine among all the bad TV shows that will come how how many AMAZING ones we will see. The popular ones will rise to the top, just like apps. We will see a new breed of major TV series come out this way. Some very promising shows will even be picked up by TV networks with big contracts and profits to be made by their creators. All the while, TV networks shows will still be available too...this is create news for all of us because our shows will no longer be controlled by the limited creativity of the TV networks anymore, the floodgates will be opened!...This is going to change the entire landscape even down to the popularity of main stream shows and actors.

Lets look at another advantage to this over current TV and how this will benefit advertisers, Networks and Apple and even us as the end user. Imagine watching American Idol on your Apple Tv network and being able to do live realtime voting during the show using your iphone (WHILE THE SHOW IS STILL PLAYING), or buying a song right from GLEE in iTunes that moment, or how about playing from home as a contestant on wheel of fortune, or helping to collectively solve a murder on CSI. All TV shows will have App like functionality built in and can be interacted with at anytime. This will be amazing for the TV networks to engage their audience and advertisers to target consumers and for everybody to have an amazing new TV viewing experience all through Apple TV. Im sure you all all familiar with Apples iAD network they have running in apps right now...that will be carried over to Apple TV but become more powerful and engaging. This is all very exciting stuff isn't it?!

Now lets looks a bit deeper into advertising. Lets say joe shmo creates his Apple TV network with 18 shows in it and 10 are cooking shows, 4 car shows, and 4 fishing shows. Apple can now exactly pinpoint what type of advertising to send to joe while he is watching his network. he wont see a tampon commercial like he does now...instead he might see a Ford commercial. right now advertisers are sorta taking a shot in the dark, not anymore. There is nothing more profitable than targeted advertising. So this is a HUGE incentive for Apple, Advertisers and the networks. Advertising dollars is what gave birth to Google. its BIG BIG $$$, much more than making a 60inch cool looking TV set.

So in short Apple TV wont be a TV at all. It will be a purely social personal shareable TV network experience leveraging existing TVs, interfaced and controlled with iPhones and iPads possibly using SIRI. It will consist of traditional network TV content along with a whole new group of socially and grass roots created content created TV shows of varying quality. We will be served targeted advertising based on our show selection.

Lastly this is where others cannot compete. Apple already has the ecosystem in place with iphones, ipads, itunes...Sony, Microsoft, even Google will be left behind because in order for this to work, a strong ecosystem has in be in place and Apple is the only one that has it.

Tying it to expensive single purpose TV hardware right out of the gate will significantly limit growth and adoption of Apple TV and probably kill it...

They absolutely WILL make a killing off hardware still, by selling a ton of Apple TV enabled iPads and iPhones. When iPhone 5 comes out and is Apple TV capable you better believe they are going to sell a heck of a lot more iphone 5s than TVs and the profit margin is just as high if not higher with the iPhone and iPad than a TV...

rest assured Apple is not making a TV, they are creating an entirely new TV experience

Click to expand...

you can be rest assured that Apple will make either a new set top box or a physical tv.

macrumors 68000

I don't see it ever happening. Simply because the industry will never allow Apple to control visual media like it does with music. The recording industry made that mistake, the television and movie industry will not. They will off what they have piece meal to multiple platforms so as to not allow one major player to dictate the rules. Money rules the world, not warm and fuzzy dreams. Its a dog eat dog world, and warm and fuzzy dreams are the milk bones.

macrumors 6502a

Televisions are anything but social, my friend. It's a one way communication device that kills the interaction in the family's you're talking about. Or do you mean that in your family, you have more, longer and more intense discussions by the TV than by for instance the dinner table?

Click to expand...

Quite possibly, but the family dynamic is in no way improved by having the TV become a glorified Pandora for one viewer, which is what is being pitched here.

macrumors newbie

I can see some validity to flavr's vision of a new TV world. Google is attempting to do this with YouTube's upcoming original-programming effort but not on the scale that flavr is envisioning. Flavr you may be on to something! Nice Post!

macrumors 68030

I don't have a problem with flavr's vision of a new TV world. I just don't think it will happen.

As may have been indicated by my earlier question, I don't see why the content providers (CBS/NBC/ABC/etc.) would provide their content to this new system. The answer "more precise laser target ad revenue" is unpersuasive to me - if that were the case, CBS/NBC/ABC/etc. would have jumped onto other models that offer similar advantages - Hulu, their own web sites, YouTube, or iTunes.

Click to expand...

I like the whole idea, and I think it could fly if they did as he said. Don't make it a TV, that would really limit those who can get in on the game; you want MASS acceptance as fast as possible. Make it $100, ATV3. Does everything ATV2 does, but is more powerful, does 1080p and all the features he listed above. It would sell well; better then ATV2 and already building upon that market.

Why would the the big name networks jump on board? Well, I would guess at first they wouldn't. BUT image how something like this would work? At first there would be a ton of crap shows; but as with Podcasts, some really good ones would start to come out. Eventually really good ones would filter to the top and become hit shows. Advertisers would be all over them and moving their funding away from the big networks who maybe charge them more and offer them less. If this happens enough, the bit networks would HAVE to change and join the network to keep their piece of the pie coming in; otherwise we could see a whole new genre of networks.

macrumors regular

If apple is making a new TV it will be very big. If you watch the apple patents you will see they have one for a 3d screen without the need for glasses, an interactive gesture interface like Xbox, controls for your other appliances through gesture, add that to a TV with IOS and a forward facing camera, (needed for gestures) that records in HD and can be used with face time/skype, and to record your kids latest music video rip-off to put on youtube. Internet browser and an app store and you will have the market cornered. When you sit down in front of the TV you register yourself as the controller, and only you can change channels, volume, ect through gesture. Still be able to use Airplay. Also could have a social media scroll bar or what ever you want to scroll by, like stocks, sports, weather, email, the list is long that can be put in place through an app store. Could also use gesture for game play, or an Idevice to control it. Would only need a small hd for buffering and the rest could be cloud based. Itunes built in would be nice to be able to leave the mac off. Airport wifi to connect to, or for idevice interface. USB ports and sd card reader in the front for putting media on if you want. This gives a simple interface which Apple likes and still change the TV market. High end ones may include a time capsule in it.
Also add this capability to your Imac or laptop, and you change the computer interface all together. Fits with Steve's dislike for touch screen that are up right. Also explains the "back to the mac" of Lion. Bring IOS and OS X together even more. The set top box will stay a hobby as it will get people thinking about the new appleTV for awhile.
Just what I see happening if apple is getting into the tv market. Might not even change your cable/sat need but make it interactive like all idevices.

macrumors 65816

I like the whole idea, and I think it could fly if they did as he said. Don't make it a TV, that would really limit those who can get in on the game; you want MASS acceptance as fast as possible. Make it $100, ATV3. Does everything ATV2 does, but is more powerful, does 1080p and all the features he listed above. It would sell well; better then ATV2 and already building upon that market.

Why would the the big name networks jump on board? Well, I would guess at first they wouldn't. BUT image how something like this would work? At first there would be a ton of crap shows; but as with Podcasts, some really good ones would start to come out. Eventually really good ones would filter to the top and become hit shows. Advertisers would be all over them and moving their funding away from the big networks who maybe charge them more and offer them less. If this happens enough, the bit networks would HAVE to change and join the network to keep their piece of the pie coming in; otherwise we could see a whole new genre of networks.

I like the idea. I'd be behind it.

Click to expand...

I agree with you. What the OP has written may never come to fruition but it sure sounds awesome to me.

Everyone thinks major networks will resist, and they probably will, but we've all seen that, ultimately, the consumer decides on these types of issues. Look at what just happened with Flash on mobile devices. If people are clamoring iOS then content needs to be delivered in a fashion that caters to the demand. If this personalized AppleTV experience is a slam dunk, must-have for the crowds, you best believe the major networks are gonna start to think different.

macrumors 68000

If anyone in their right mind thinks that TV networks or movie studios will let Apple dictate their ad revenue, well you really are living in a dream world. Unlike the music industry, visual media receives billions of dollars yearly from ads. You think Apple will top that? Answer = No.

Apple has tried licensing deals with networks, and all you have to do is flick through a few Google searches to see how that has turned out.

Now sporting, music and those type of events are anther story as Apple can deal directly with the NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC and music concert managers for direct content. Personally, i can't wait for ATV to get NFL or UFC.

macrumors regular

Live concerts would be a great thing to put on the appletv. Also the pay-per-view fights/sporting events. I would pay for the super bowl if it came with the network ads. I don't want iAd getting in the way, we already have that in Canada, which replaces the good adds with Canadian ads.

macrumors 65816

1) it has been shown that consumers don't want TV to be more interactive. They watch TV during those times when they just want to veg out and sit in front of a screen and be fed stuff. There is little desire to making the TV another facebook/social media experience.

2) Apple isn't really into ads. Look at all their products. iCloud is even free to use and still ad free, all their stuff is ad free. Apple takes the stance that people would rather pay more money to not see ads. Basing their entire TV concept around better targeted ads for networks just doesn't seem to be their philosophy.

3) Big Content will never let this happen, as has been described above. Big Content will never let go of the control they have over their media, which is why TV hasn't gone anywhere in the last 20 years. Consumers want on-demand, ad-free media at a reasonable price, but Big Content is absolutely set against that. They want you to pay $50-100 a month for the privilege to access their content, and then on top of that litter their content with ads for additional revenue. They are also absolutely dead set against repeating the "mistake" of the music industry by letting one single entity control the market. They killed GoogleTV before it even had a chance, Apple would probably follow the same fate. The only way I could see this working is they convinced Apple to hand over a significant portion of their free cash to Big Content, in exchange- but I think (or at least I hope) that Apple is too smart to cave in to that black hole.

macrumors 68030

Quite possibly, but the family dynamic is in no way improved by having the TV become a glorified Pandora for one viewer, which is what is being pitched here.

Click to expand...

I don't think anyone is trying to make a TV improve family dynamics. You do that by turning it off, not on But what I'm certain will happen is that the TV will be more of a two way communication device with things like Facetime for instance. In that sense, it will be more social than it is today.

1) it has been shown that consumers don't want TV to be more interactive. They watch TV during those times when they just want to veg out and sit in front of a screen and be fed stuff. There is little desire to making the TV another facebook/social media experience.

Click to expand...

This sounds interesting, where did you read this? Do you have a link or two to share?

I think that if they've really "cracked it", as Jobs said, then this new product can very well be one of those products that people never knew they wanted until they saw it.

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