Tuesday, August 27, 2013

2013 Summer Box-Office Recap (Over $100 million)

Epic

My Prediction: $130 million

Actual Total: $107 million

What Happened?: Action oriented animated films that lean away from the standard comedy does not draw family audiences. I had anticipated that this would do better because it was the first animated feature since The Croods, but it did face competition from Hangover Part III and Fast & Furious 6 which opened the same day. This is the fourth William Joyce animated adaptation that has underperformed.

Hangover Part III

My Prediction: $220 million

Actual Total: $112 million

What Happened?: Fast Five surprised people and Hangover Part II disappointed. Audiences supported the sequel to the former and did not give a chance.

Now You See Me

My Prediction: $45 million

Actual Total: $116 million

What Happened?: It is a crapshoot if audiences will go to an original movie. But Lions Gate changed the release date and marketed it well online. It surprised audiences and got decent word of mouth. The recognizable cast also helped.

The Wolverine

My Prediction: $180 million

Actual Total: $125 million

What Happened?: People were let down by X-Men Origins: Wolverine, X-Men: First Class did not perform as well as the others in the franchise and there were already two big superhero movies. This still did great business and was the only option for late July. But it was not going to be a huge hit and it is doubtful that Wolverine works as a solo film star despite the appeal of Hugh Jackman.

Grown Ups 2

My Prediction: $40 million

Actual Total: $129 million

What Happened?: Adam Sandler knows how to get its audience. As odd as this statement it Jack and Jill and That's My Boy may have been too edgy. This was simple enough that family audiences could go to it. General audiences trusted it and they went to it in droves.

The Conjuring

My Prediction: $20 million

Actual Total: $131 million

What Happened?: People did not want to see Turbo, Red 2 and especially R.I.P.D. so this was the only option on its opening weekend. Good word of mouth and like The Purge it had the surprise factor. Not sure if horror is back or if this one was just timed perfectly.

The Great Gatsby

My Prediction: $35 million

Actual Total: $144 million

What Happened?: When I made my predictions in August a friend told me that this would make a lot more money than I thought. I was sound in my reasoning of why I anticipated a flop, but I did not account for how much people love the book. The book has a large following and just wanted to see it.

The Heat

My Prediction: $165 million

Actual Total: $156 million

What Happened?: Perfect combination of stars, reached multiple demographics and just a decent comedy. Melissa McCarthy has been able to attract male demographics and this movie is the recent in a long line that proves that women will see female focused comedies.

World War Z

My Prediction: $65 million

Actual Total: $198 million

What Happened?: My original statement was that this would be a historic bomb. This year's Battleship. How wrong I was. I think that all of the controversy drummed up curiosity and people's expectations where low enough that they were surprised. Grew word of mouth and was decent counter programming to Monsters University.

Star Trek Into Darkness

My Prediction: $300 million

Actual Total: $227 million

What Happened?: Not sure why it wasn't more successful. Geeks seemed to want to not like this one. It could have been because it was released so long after the 2009 original. When Marvel cranks out two movies a year audiences are not used to waiting, this lost momentum.

Fast & Furious 6

My Prediction: $160 million

Actual Total: $238 million

What Happened?: People loved the fifth one more than I thought they did and were looking forward to this one. Did well with reviews and was what audiences wanted.

Monsters University

My Prediction: $175 million

Actual Total: $238 million

What Happened?: A very likable movie that surprised me. Pixar's brand is still strong and with Epic under performing it was the first animated comedy option of the summer. Was good enough that families would want to go back.

Man of Steel

My Prediction: $230 million

Actual Total: $290 million

What Happened?: Terrific marketing that got people in theatres right away. The controversies and lack of replay value hurt its holdover a bit but this one started strong and got people interested in Superman again.

Despicable Me 2

My Prediction: $275 million

Actual Total: $351 million

What Happened?: Universal recognized that people responded like crazy to the Minions. Kids were going to see this because they saw the first but it also got the interest of the adults who thought the Minions were funny too. I still don't completely understand it but this one worked.

Iron Man 3

My Prediction: $350 million

Actual Total: $450 million

What Happened?: Perfect lead in with The Avengers and this one was able to stand on its own and focus strongly on Tony Stark. Worked in multiple viewings and just a good action movie and character study.