Historical Method Using Bayes’ Theorem Explained by Example

History, Probability and Miracles, by Matthew Ferguson: Bayes’ Theorem is an historical method used by some rigorous historians to demonstrate the probability of their historical explanations and theories. Among them are some who work in biblical studies, ancient history, etc. Matthew Ferguson, currently a Ph.D. graduate student in Classics at the University of California, Irvine. whose research interests include ancient biography, Greek and Latin historiography, the New Testament, early Christianity, and the early Roman Empire, wrote in 2013 what for me is an excellent (i.e. understandable) explanation of Bayes’ Theorem. In this article from one of his blogs, Ferguson explains the theorem and applies it to biblical narratives about the resurrection of Jesus. h/t to Neil Godfrey‘s Vridar.org blog for pointing me in Ferguson’s direction.

Pages

A Work in Progress

This website, like me, is a work in progress. But unlike me, this website is new whereas I’ve been around for a while.

The main purpose of this website is to help me try to close in on answers to religio-historical questions that have persisted since I “came of age” in the 1960s while attending a Roman Catholic high school.

If you resonate with questions that are suggested in my postings, and if you empathize with my curiosity, please don’t hesitate to get in touch.

For example, I remember being curious about the nuts and bolts of Christian origins, and I remember being frustrated when my teachers were unable to provide answers — mainly because answers were not available to them at that time.

Please note that I am not a polemicist. I carry no grudges, I place no blame. And I do appreciate that religious and other faith-based beliefs are part of human nature.

Unfortunately, many of the sources I have had to turn to — sources that are open-minded enough and freethinking enough to be able to think these questions through somewhat objectively, do tend to be atheist anti-Christian polemicists. (There are exceptions, but I have not found many.)

Blog Stats

189 hits

Follow Blog via Email

Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.