Thursday, December 27, 2012

2012: From Arab Spring to Early Winter

From Egypt to Syria to Russia, reactionary forces are on the rise.

Meteorologists know seasons are predictable. In the weather
world, spring is always followed by summer. But the political world
is different. Spring can proceed to summer, or it can lead to a
sudden onset of winter.
That was the case this year in the Middle East, which in 2011
saw the Arab Spring. Egypt, which toppled longtime dictator Hosni
Mubarak last year, had a notable moment. "Egyptians choose their
leader for first time in 5,000 years," read a headline in The
Daily Telegraph of London.

But after elected President Mohamed Morsi claimed sweeping
powers and rushed through a vote on a new constitution, tens of
thousands of protesters chanted, "Shave your beard, show your
disgrace, you will find that you have Mubarak's face!"

In Tunisia, President Moncef Marzouki, appearing at a ceremony
commemorating the first revolution of the Arab Spring, was greeted
by a stone-throwing crowd angry at police brutality. Human Rights
Watch accused the Iraqi government of carrying out mass arrests and
holding the detainees for months without charges and
incommunicado.

The government that took over in Libya after Moammar Gadhafi's
removal struggled to assert control over armed militias—including
one that killed the U.S. ambassador. Morocco's king, who responded
to the 2011 protests by agreeing to share power, was widely accused
of taking it back.

Syria's Bashar al-Assad declined to share power, preferring to
carry out a savage war against opposition rebels that left 40,000
dead.

Green shoots were scarce elsewhere as well. The
Islamist-dominated government of Turkey, a democracy that belongs
to NATO, now imprisons more journalists than any nation on Earth. A
15-year-old Pakistani girl survived being shot in the head by a
Taliban assailant for the sin of advocating education for
girls.

When it holds elections next year, Pakistan may achieve
something new. "No civilian, elected leader in Pakistani history
has ever completed a full term in office and then passed power to
an elected successor," noted The Economist magazine.

China installed new rulers, making Hu Jintao, The Wall
Street Journal noted, "the first Communist Chinese leader to
cede all formal powers without bloodshed, purges or political
unrest."

Chinese novelist Mo Yan won the Nobel Prize for Literature and
said the government's censorship was no more objectionable than
airport security measures. Liu Xiaobo, who won the 2010 Nobel Peace
Prize, may disagree, since he is serving an 11-year prison term for
signing a petition in favor of human rights.

A rare positive development came in Burma, whose government has
undertaken major political reforms. After spending most of the past
two decades under house arrest, dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi
led her party to victory in parliamentary elections.

"It's becoming difficult to find things to complain about,"
remarked an official of a dissident exile group. Barack Obama
marked the improvement by becoming the first sitting U.S. president
to visit the country.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has been in power since
1999, won re-election despite runaway inflation and rampant crime.
Apparently unable to defeat the cancer for which he has undergone
multiple operations, El Comandante designated a preferred successor
in case he is not available to serve.

Former Liberian President Charles Taylor, who abetted terrorism,
murder, and rape in Sierra Leone's civil war, became the first head
of state convicted of crimes against humanity by an international
court since the Nuremberg trials.

In Senegal, Africa's oldest democracy, President Abdoulaye Wade
ran for a third term despite a two-term limit but lost. Mali
suffered two military coups. On Thursday, the UN Security Council
voted to send African troops to root out al-Qaida forces that have
taken over the northern part of the country, but set no
timetable.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was inaugurated in May after
police beat protesters with nightsticks and arrested hundreds. His
spokesman later expressed regret about the police conduct: "I would
have liked them to act more harshly."

The government passed a law to punish unauthorized
demonstrations with fines as high as $9,000 per person. Kenneth
Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch, told me that Putin
is mounting "the biggest crackdown in Russia since the Soviet
era."

In that respect, Putin is acting in the spirit of the times.
Climate experts say 2012 will likely be the warmest year ever in
the United States. In the global political realm, though, it's been
a Big Chill.