How I missed using the tropical weather links... the wind shear is around 20 knots, which isn't very low but isn't too high either, with the shear decreasing in that particular area. 20 knots of shear isn't favorable but could be enough to allow this to become a subtropical cyclone if it can continue to hold a closed low. It doesn't look like it should be a quick moving disturbance, but apparently could drift slowly to the NE. SSTs are marginal at this time, and are colder to the NE of the storm, so much intensification shouldn't take place. It's definitely worth of being named 90L, but I'd give this only a 10-20% chance of becoming a STD or STS.

A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"

Didn't think I'd be breaking out the Tropical Weather bookmarks this early

So much for winter. Oh well, bring on the Tropics!

Looks like there's 20 or 30 kt sheer around it, which isn't too strong, but could inhibit enough for us not to see a STD or storm. That being said, the storm looks to have a closed low, and gulf temps are still warm enough for this to become a system. I'd say a 50/50 chance of it being the first system of 2012, and a 30% of becoming our first named system. Nonetheless, an interesting system.