Lewstar2000's Blog

Angels opened at -190 almost entirely because ace Weaver is on bump. Certainly can't be because of Halos' uninspired play. Figgygot a huge standing O last night in return to Anaheim from Angels' fans sick of "remaining" Angels. Wait till Vlady comes to town.

Yeah, King Felix is on mound for Seattle, but he's 4-6 career versus Angels, and his only outing this year vs. Angels resulted in an 18+ ERA. Meanwhile, Weaver is 9-3 versus Seattle lifetime, and his home ERA this season is 2.25.

"Since the Binogate incident when Phillies bullpen coach Mick
Billmeyer was caught with the binoculars and accused of stealing signs
the team is averaging 3.79 runs per game.

We’re not making any assumptions here, but the Phils were averaging
5.44 runs per before that.

Mired in a five-game slide heading into Friday’s opener in Florida,
the Phillies have lost their offensive punch. The NL East leaders have
been outscored 29-3 during their losing streak and did not score a run
during a three-game sweep against New York." (Phils won 3-2 on Friday.)

And Phils are facing a definitely decent Florida hurler, Josh Johnson. In fact, Unders might even be a better bet.

Love madjacks' avatar, though! This game is a perfect examples of
numbers vs. pitchers. To wit:
--Phillies have lost 6 straight Interleague games (obviously not
counting
World Series) and 13 of last 14.
--Boston 4 and 1 last 5 in Philly.

BUT
--Hamels looking to win his third straight for first time since 2007
--Lackey trying to bounce back after allowing 11 runs in last 2 games. Even his gorgeous wife won't help him in Boston if he doesn't get back on track.

--Under 11-1`last 12 Braden home starts against a team with a winning record.--Verlander 3 and 0 this month with a 1.71 ERA, and he just beat CC and Yankees, best-hitting team in baseball, 6-0, going 6 2/3 innings.

"He had a lucky game in Game
1," said Stoudemire, who seems particularly fiery in what might be his
last few games with Phoenix if he declines a contract option and becomes a free
agent this summer.

"We've just got to make sure we
box him out," said Stoudemire, who managed just three rebounds while Odom
set a career playoff high on the boards. "I think I focused so much on (Pau) Gasol and (Andrew)
Bynum to where he sneaked in there and got 19 boards."

"Luck is part of
the game," said Jackson, whose teams in Chicago and Los
Angeles are 46-0 after winning the first game of a
playoff series. "You make your own luck, that's what sports people like to
say."

Well, they aren't a huge dog, but I'm just saying. The Twins are 2 and 9 last 11 in Toronto.
Eveland is 0-0 with a 1.80 ERA against Twins last 3 starts. Blue Jays
going for 5 in a row. Outscored Texas 27 to 12 in just-completed
3-game sweep of Texas. Slowey 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in last four against Jays.

The most important thing in gambling that I've learned--other than don't gamble--is to not bet into streaks whether winning or losing. Eventually, you'll lose, but you will make money tailing streaks, simply because teams on a winning or losing streak are in a zone--or anti-zone.

Case in point are the Magic. Won their last 14 and are 13 and 1 ATS. In fact, their only ATS loss was first playoff game when they were 10-point faves versus Charlotte and won by 9. Since then, they've covered 7 in a row. And -6 or -6.5 doesn't seem enough for a well-rested, confident team to give to a team that just finished astressful, all-in series.

By the same token, I'm taking the Blackhawks in first game of series at San Jose, simply because Sharks are 9 and 0 last 9 as road dogs. That 0 means a lot to me. Of course, streaks are made to be broken, but if you can start tailing a modest streak, chances are you might be able to move out of the trailer home!

Good luck to all. By the way, if this series goes 7, it will cover more than 2 weeks--15 days, to be exact.

Boston has won 7 of last 8 in Boston; that's one thing in their favor.
And rabid Boston fans will be screaming from start to finish to get
their second pro team in conference finals.

But I can't help but thinking
Philly second-string goalie is playing with house money, while Bruin
phenom goalie Rask feels the weight of the world on him--not conducive to playing well. I got to lean toward Flyers despite all of Bruins' positives.

Santana has been awful away from home: he's 0-1 (in two starts) with a
bloated 8.43 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP.
-------
Meantime, at home, Josh Johnson has been overpowering: 2.42 ERA with a
1.07 WHIP. No wonder he's undefeated at home (3-0) in 4 starts, and
Marlins won his one no-decision game.

" I've been watching sports for more than 30 years,
been betting sports for 20 years and have been booking games for almost
15 years. In all my years, I've never seen a game or a performance like
what I saw in Game 5 on Tuesday night.

With so much on the line, one of the game's greatest players, LeBron
James, didn't bother to show up. I can't for the life of me remember a
game that was completely inexplicable to me. Blow outs happen all the
time, it goes without saying.

Game 5 wasn't that big of an upset with the Cavs only 7.5-point
favorites. What was inexplicable and something I've never seen before
was a superstar of James' stature not showing up on such a big stage.
With that said, I fully expect a huge effort tonight from the Cavs and
especially LeBron."

Fisher hit the go-ahead 3-pointer with 28.6 seconds left on Saturday,
giving the Lakers the lead for good, 109-108. He had been booed all
night, as he has been in Utah since asking the Jazz to release him from
his contract so he could move his family closer to a city where his
1-year-old daughter could get specialized treatment for a cancerous
tumor in her eye.

He ended up signing as a free agent with the
Lakers, which some Jazz fans won't seem to forgive. The relentless boos
and chants of "Fisher Sucks!" are not sitting well with Fisher's
teammates on the Lakers.

If the Hawks were as good at scoring points as they are at pointing
fingers they might not find themselves in the 3-0 series hole to the
Magic. The Hawks have been outscored by an average of 29 points per game
in the series and Saturday's 105-75 loss was the low point.Coach Mike
Woodson called his team's effort "nonexistent", guard Joe Johnson teed
off on booing fans and center Al Horford said "when things don't go our
way everybody just kind of seems to crawl into their own little hole."
It all adds up to a big hole for the Hawks, and they don't seem ready,
willing or able to climb out of it.

Add that to Magic 27 wins out of last 30 and 12-1 ATS last 13, and doesn't appear oddsmakers can give Hawks enough points.

Home ice has been kind to the Bruins, who have won seven straight
heading into tonight's Game 5 against the Flyers. The Bruins won the
first two games against the visiting Flyers, swept their three
first-round games against Sabres in Boston and haven't lost at home
since April 1. The Flyers, on the other hand, have been woeful on the
road late in the season, going 4-12 in their last 16 away from home.

In case you missed it in Covers, Blake Edwards, oddsmaker for Logans, is very opionated on both games tonight. Some excerpts:

"We opened the Magic at -5.5 and looking back we
definitely opened this
line short. We immediately started taking action on the road favorite.
With action pouring in on the Magic, we went to 6 and we're now dealing
6.5 on them. It's the most lopsided game we've seen so far in the
playoffs. Almost 95 percent of the total action is on the Magic and I
could see us closing this game Magic -7.

The Hawks have lost all three games in this series by an
average of 29
points, with the closest game being a 14-point loss in Game 2. If the
Hawks were to finally win a game and push this series back to Orlando, I
would expect them to fully lie down and I would not expect a
competitive Game 5.
-----------
Lakers/Jazz

As for the total, we opened at 206 and have seen mostly
over money. With
over 80 percent of the action on the over, we've gone to 207.

Another
area where we've seen a lot of action on is the Lakers moneyline. Our
bettors are mostly passing on taking the points and are pounding the
Lakers on the moneyline at +120.

Unlike the Hawks, I believe the Jazz will come to play
tonight. This is a
very proud team, driven by a great coach in Jerry Sloan. They know
their season is all but done, but they don't want to see the Lakers
celebrate on th... [More]

--Despite trailing 3-0 in this playoff series, the early money quickly
came in on San Antonio when an opening line was posted Saturday morning.

--Oddsmakers initially made the Spurs a 2.5-point home favorite and
bettors quickly pushed the line up to -3.5 (now -4). The early money also came in
on the over as the opening total went from 206.5 up to 207.

--San
Antonio’s defense has done a decent job against the Suns for most
of the first 36 minutes of each game. However, the Spurs have fallen
asleep in the money quarter in all three of the games so far.Phoenix
has scored 39, 32 and 26 points in the fourth quarters of
this series. That’s a total of 97 points scored on San Antonio’s defense
when the game is on the line.

--Numbers like that were never allowed by the defensive-minded Spurs
teams of old.

--Only a week ago were the Spurs being hailed as perhaps
the best No. 7
seed in NBA history after impressively dumping Dallas in six games. Now
they are looking like, well, like just about every other seventh seed in
NBA history.

Personally, I would make game pick 'em. And that's being kind to Spurs.

Detroit has won both games
and outscored the opposition 13-2 when
facing elimination in the 2010 playoffs, while the Red Wings are 3-6 in all other games. The
Wings' may be the year's best backs-to-the-wall team.

Orlando has gone more than a month since its last defeat, a 112-100
setback at San Antonio on April 2. The Magic has won 12 straight since
then, the last six of those in the playoffs. Going back even further,
they are on a 26-of-29 roll, clearly a team peaking at just the right
time of year.

Even more troubling for the Hawks, Orlando hasn't lost
back-to-back
games in nearly FOUR months. Atlanta absolutely must win the next two
games on its home court to have any chance of pulling off an epic
turnaround.

Nine of last 10 games played by two teams (5 by Sharks; 5 by Wings) has totalled 7 goals
(including 4 to 3 wins by Sharks in first three of this series). Only "non-7-total" was San Jose's 5-0 win over Avs. Seems, therefore, like over 5.5 is a distinct possibility.

Tim Duncan
said after the Spurs practiced on Tuesday, "We still have an opportunity
to steal home court here tomorrow, and we're going to do just that. We've got a
lot of things to clean up. We feel if we do just that, we give ourselves a real
good chance."

Hey, I’m not gonna call out “El Viejo.” Gotta remember in the first round, the Spurs
lost Game 1 in Dallas,
then won Game 2 and eliminated the Mavericks in six. And this game

feels to me like Game 2 of Boston at the Cavs.

Plus, the Spurs have won four straight playoff
series against the Suns—and 4 world championships the past 10 years. Just can’t see them putting themselves in a
huge 0-2 hole in “Shut up and show me your papers!” Arizona.

For starters,
the Cardinals should be much higher than -118, given the fact that Penny is
pitching like Cy Young, and Kyle Kendrick is pitching like Eric Young. In
fact, KK has imploded 4 of his 5 trips to the bump; in those starts, he has an 11.49 ERA, giving up six homers in 15 2/3 innings.

But KK does love to pitch against Cards. Consider

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Kendrick is
3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts versus St. Louis
-- none since June 2008 -- and he's 9-2 lifetime against the NL Central leaders. Matt Holliday,
Ryan Ludwick
and Albert Pujols are a combined 3 for 22
against Kendrick, though Holliday and Ludwick have taken him deep.

Plus:

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--Phillies are 11-1 in their last 12 games
as a home underdog of +110 to +150.

--Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 home
games vs. a right-handed starter.

Can't see why Over has increased from 202.5 to 204.5. Spurs have averaged 91 points last 4, and Dallas, 100. Plus, Spurs' opponentshave averaged 92 last 4, and Suns, 91.

And of course Phoenix turned it around when they started stressing D. I'm gonna risk my humongous 5-game streak on Streak Survivor on Under--and pray for no OT.

Speaking of which, the top 5 leaders on Streak Survivor are all taking same prop, which is highly unusual. Specifically, they are all taking Phoenix -3.5, -4, or -4.5, depending on when they got it. One of them is the guy at top, with 18 in row. He won $1,000 when he nailed no. 17, and he needs 4 more to win $25,000.

Flyers hadn't played in 8 days (compared to Bruins' 4 days off). And
Philly's rust showed early on. Outshot badly in first period, and they
fell back, 2 to 0.

Philly remembered how they did it, outshooting and outscoring in second
and thrid periods--to take it into OT. Then Philly seemed to
get tired (certainly understandable after a long rest), and Boston
took it to them in OT, getting off 15 shots vs. Flyers' 4 shots.

Hey, shouldn't Tigers be more than -107? Going for a sweep at home; Angels playing under. 500. Maybe oddsmakers are paying homage to Weaver, who is pitching his heart out.

After all, a couple of weeks ago, he witnessed a guy jumping off a building in New York. http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=189140

And who knows if he'll ever recover from the death of his best buddy, Nick Adenhart. But all sentiment aside, I like the Halos a lot in this one. For one thing, if they lose another, Scioscia might have another "Raging Bull" episode behind locked doors.

Bucks are 20-5-1 last 26 ATS on road. I'm just saying. Funny
how people change their mind based entirely on last game.
That's what screws a lot horseplayers: They look only at
a horse's last race.

Also, funny to me (sometimes) how the oddsmakers hang a number up, and so many say, "Geez, that must be correct!"Hey, it's amazing how close Vegas gets in many cases, butI'm sure those intrepid wagerers who set their own numbers,then look at the numbers set by others--do better in the long run.

Considering the importance of this game, and past history, I had the number at about 6. We'll see!

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