Thank you for stopping by the Weather Watch 12 blog! Already? The last weekend of summer is upon us. Is it just me or did that go by way too fast? In today's weather blog we discuss the weather this weekend and look ahead to early October.

The threat of a shower or thunderstorm hangs in the forecast for the rest of today(Friday). Then just in time for the weekend dry weather returns. Let's start with the regional forecast for Saturday. The warmest temperatures will reside from Milwaukee south through Chicago. Some upper 60s may occur in far northern Wisconsin.

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If you are traveling west, like me, to the Badgers game in Madison the weather looks great. 60s for tailgating and around 70 at kickoff. Don't forget sunscreen! You can still get a nasty sunburn this time of year.

If you are not able to spend time outside on Saturday, hopefully you find time Sunday. The WPC surface forecast map below is valid late Saturday. The little bump in the line over the Midwest is a ridge of high pressure. The will move over Wisconsin on Sunday giving us lots of sunshine, lower humidity, and highs in the mid-70s.

Overall a great looking final weekend of summer.

With quiet weather in store this weekend lets take a moment to look ahead to late September and the first week of October. The overall weather pattern is starting to undergo a change. The change will lead to some big swings in temperatures in the coming weeks.

When forecasting long range I use the Bering Sea Rule and the LRC. The LRC states a new weather pattern sets-up each fall, then the pattern cycles, or repeats. The cycle continues from fall through the following summer. A new LRC pattern is about to take shape. I use the LRC in making the winter forecast. Look for the winter forecast in mid-November.

Another method I use for forecasting weeks in advance is the Bering Sea Rule. This method focuses on a specific part of the Bering Sea and the weather in the middle of the atmosphere(500mb level) above that general location. I then project forward about 16-19 days and that overall flow will impact Wisconsin. How neat is that! I have used both the LRC and BSR for years with a tremendous amount of success.

The map below is a 500mb forecast map for September 18. The area of interest to me has a ridge over it. Notice the bump up in the lines on the map below? That's the area I'm focusing on. Projecting that forward leads me to believe we should start to see a warm-up take hold in southeast Wisconsin around October 4-5(give or take a day). Whenever the warmest day occurs(around Oct 5-6) it may push highs well above average.

A storm system will approach to end the warm-up and may lead to thunderstorms. Parts of the Midwest may even see strong storms.

Look for some big temperature swings from late September through the first week of October. Late September or around October 1 should deliver the coolest air so far this early fall season. Lots of exciting weather ahead!

If the BSR or LRC are a bit confusing that's okay...I just want to show you how I make the long range forecasts I post here and on social media. If you have questions please feel free to ask.