Monday, August 30, 2010

A sharp frontal zone over southeast MB today combining with a wave of energy moving in from the southwest will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms over southern MB today into tonight, with areas of heavy rain likely as well as the potential for locally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong winds mainly over SE Manitoba. Heavy downpours are likely with thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts of 20-40 mm in a short period possible over southern MB including the RRV. Locally higher amounts are possible where storms regenerate over the same area. The activity is expected to merge into a large area of heavy rain mainly north of Winnipeg through the Interlake regions tonight where 50-75 mm is possible by Tuesday.

A good 15-25 mm with heavier storms rolling though southern RRV this morning. A new line of cells developing over NE ND moving towards Emerson may bring additional heavy rain towards the US border as they train along the SW-NE axis.

Main front has moved a little further east this morning, pushing east of a Sprague-Fargo ND line. That frontal boundary may head back a bit west this afternoon.. but it appears the main threat of severe weather will be confined mainly over NW MN and NW Ontario later today into this evening, possibly brushing extreme SE MB.

So much for a dry August in Steinbach. We had only received about 25mm of rain up until today for the entire month. With today's deluge of 25mm or more, we should easily double the rainfall total, or more.

In terms of the record books, it will be a very close call as to whether this month will be above or below average for total rain. Most likely, it will end up near normal...although not representative of the relatively dry conditions for the vast majority of the month.

Over 35 mm now as of 9:05 pm at my site.. bringing my August total over 156 mm. Normal is around 75, so we've had twice the average. And it still keeps coming down.. radar still shows moderate to heavy rain advecting over Winnipeg for the next hour or so. Morris has had an incredible 67 mm past 2 hours, for a whopping total of 97 mm today (MB ag-wx site) Many RRV sites reporting 30-50 mm totals so far today. Ground can't take any more.. water table is very high here.