Dylan Grice Writes His Most Negative Note Ever: 'I Am More Worried Than I Have Ever Been' http://www.businessinsider.com/socgens-dylan-grice-is-more-worried-than-ever-2012-10/comments
en-usWed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500Wed, 13 Dec 2017 21:48:13 -0500Matthew Boeslerhttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/5075cad3ecad048c1e000001Linda WarnkeWed, 10 Oct 2012 15:21:55 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/5075cad3ecad048c1e000001
Nothing inflationary...but they don't count food and fuel. The 2 things that are going up fast, and that we can't do without.
But we're told that inflation isn't an issue because the price of Hello Kitty ankle socks has remained steady...
And these folks are running things...*sigh*http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506cffedecad04f97f00000ctheroosterWed, 03 Oct 2012 23:18:05 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506cffedecad04f97f00000c
As a 21st century (real-time) gold bug , I am fully cognizant of the fact that a real-time gold standard must be implemented by the marketplace, must be bottom-up and must be organic in its rate of change from a debt paradigm to an asset based paradigm. This is a massive change and when it comes to massive change, old habits can be hard to break, good or bad. Since people only change by way of the carrot or the stick, I suspect that this is an occasion where "the stick" of inflation may be a necessary evil in order to enter the real-time gold-as-money paradigm. Monetize bullion and purge existing debt !!!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c53a8eab8ea0a45000005Laurence HuntWed, 03 Oct 2012 11:03:04 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c53a8eab8ea0a45000005
Actually, the connection between inflation and social instability is quite clear. Human perception is alert to change. We notice what is different. Inflation is redistribution of wealth (a basic principle of Austrian economics). When wealth is redistributed, anxiety is provoked for obvious reasons. Will I get my share? It needs to be studied more, but the connection between inflationary monetary policy and social conflict is pretty fundamental, and the "2% per year" rationalization does little to assuage the angst that is the constant companion of inflation. Mr. Grice is entirely correct, in my opinion.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c3eb069beddbd67000002Crusader75Wed, 03 Oct 2012 09:33:36 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506c3eb069beddbd67000002
If only you were in charge.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bc17d69bedd4734000012MajorWed, 03 Oct 2012 00:39:25 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bc17d69bedd4734000012
You're assigning far too much importance -- and consequentiality -- to our relatively incompetent, hugely overpaid and eminently replaceable, banking sector.
In reality, they’re just another overhead component – grown hugely bloated and dysfunctional through years of mismanagement -- and suboptimization.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bbd6a6bb3f7b874000011sizzlerWed, 03 Oct 2012 00:22:02 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bbd6a6bb3f7b874000011
We have no idea how this 1600 cycle works. From what we know of the end of the Western Roman Empire the 200s and 300s were a golden age of prosperity in the empire for normal people. Gibbon blamed christianity with it's anti war attitude and withdrawal of it's adherents from civil society. Others have noted the arrival of malaria in southern europe, currency debasement. My favourite is a declining population with empty farm land that persistently refused entry to immigrants wanting to be Roman. Eventually these would-be Romans joined together and just took the land with large groups marching across the empire with impunity. It collapsed.
Look around today.
1/ The huge acceleration in wealth concentration is leading to plainly unworkable and foolish govt policy.
2/ Increasing digitisation of finance puts us a hack away from financial meltdown.
3/ The UK has a 3 day food supply. The rest of europe has a couple more days.
4/ The cult of "private property" replacing the pragmatism of "use of property" has isolated the 1% from the rest, and frozen our ability to respond to economic emergency amongst the 99%.
The theme is fragility. 3 days without food and it's all over.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb26a6bb3f7e467000003sizzlerTue, 02 Oct 2012 23:35:06 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb26a6bb3f7e467000003
Grice pay attention.
408 AD the barbarians cross the Rhine and are never pushed back. It is the end of the western Roman Empire. A dark age begins.
1200 BC Mycenian Greece, The Hittite Empire, Assyria, all collapse within a couple of years. A dark age begins. Writing is forgotten in most of the world. The flame of civilisation only survives in Egypt.
2900-2600 BC the writing that existed was just lists. Across the middle east, near east, egypt, etc, the objects we find are suddenly primative. Often called the start of the Early Bronze Age and end of the Neolithic. At the end of this period cities with elites, bronze tools and writing emerge. We can only guess at what happened.
Notice every 1600 years civillisation ends and a dark age starts.
The last was 1600 years ago. There is no hedge, no protection, no wealth preservation. It's a 1600 year reset of civilisation.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb1d9eab8eac855000009nomorebamaTue, 02 Oct 2012 23:32:41 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb1d9eab8eac855000009
Obama? How would he even know. As said in Bob Woodward's book Obama is WAY over his head. No clue what all the economic stuff is. He is a lawyer, one who has never had a real job. Just talk 'purdy' and the Chicago ward chairmen will make sure you have some traveling money. Wife need a job? How about $330K a year as a hospital 'community coordinater'? Don't even have to show up at the hospital, the money just rolls in.
Obama has spent twice as much time on the golf course than in economic update meetings. He has missed over half of the briefings. Has also missed almost half of the security briefings. But, he kills BinLaden with his own hands, MSNBC sez so!http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb058eab8eac05a000001nomorebamaTue, 02 Oct 2012 23:26:16 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506bb058eab8eac05a000001
Couldn't disagree with you more. The 99% (actually about 50%) of the people live WAY over their heads. Yep, the took the MasterCard jingle to heart. They also bought the 'community reinvestment act' scam pushed by the Congressional Liberals (Maxine Waters husband made a fortune). There was NO WAY they could ever afford the houses they were buying, but no problem, Barney Frank made sure that Fanny and Freddy bought the loan and the insiders took there cut. They also sent their kids to college to become 'gender studies' and abnormal psych' majors with $100K debt. Whoops! No jobs!. That is OK, you can get stoned and eat yummy organic food at any OWS protest/riot for FREE.
You can see your poor, mistreated 99%ers at any MLB game with $300 worth of their teams' clothes. Giants game 11PM on a school night? No problem, this is more important than the kids getting their home work done. Heck, go to LA Dodger Stadium some time. You can watch them buy $10 Churros with government issued AFDC cards. Oh, they will complain publicly when their free 'Obama Phones' only give them 450 minutes a month. But, just continue to elect Obama and his ilk.... next time you will get a free Smart Phone so you can watch NBA games on it.
Yes, it is all the fault of the rich. Vote Demo, and we will redistribute....after we take our little cut off the top. Yes, as Liz Warren Sez "We are for working families', working that is to pay for our lifestyles. But, 'working people', just do not get too close to our mansions in the Hamptons, and for God's sake, stay out of the Harvard Faculty Club pool. No telling what germs you carry....http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba5f369bedd5773000018WestcoastliberalTue, 02 Oct 2012 22:41:55 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba5f369bedd5773000018
If you can convince a population that they deserve to live a certain lifestyle, that they CAN afford it today rather than save for it, that interest is just part of the price, then you can skim a substantial amount of money from that population.
I still remember the tv ads that sold us credit cards, can you? Some jingle like "Mastercard is for everything and makes shopping a heckuva lot more fun". And who can forget the Karl Maldin Amex ads?
The wheels have come off the bus of our economic paradigm. Like everything else, the 1/10th of 1% have pushed their greed too far. And the people are beginning to wake up to the fact they've been screwed.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba2e3eab8eae734000016JimZTue, 02 Oct 2012 22:28:51 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506ba2e3eab8eae734000016
Lookin' everywhere for Grice's warnings of the massive financial sector debt overhang/ponzi scheme that led to 2008. Nope, didn't find it here, either....http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b9f83eab8eaab2c000022mossy2100Tue, 02 Oct 2012 22:14:27 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b9f83eab8eaab2c000022
Correlation does not imply causation.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b6d05eab8eaa43d000002Mr RealityTue, 02 Oct 2012 18:39:01 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b6d05eab8eaa43d000002
Yawn - yet another Chicken Little prediciting the imminent collapse of civilization as we know it.
Can't BI leave this sort of doom mongering to Zero Hedge and other apocolypto freaks? Almost every single day for the last three years we have had to put up with clowns like this predicting every thing from hyper inflation to hyper deflation, to the Dow dropping by 10,000 points, to unemployment surging to 50 percent etc etc. And guess what. It never happens. One way or another we keep muddling though.
And we will continue to muddle through. If you listened to clowns like this three years ago you would have completely missed the doubling of the Dow from 6000 to over 13000 where it sits today. Forget these loser doom merchants.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5c4cecad04fc6f000002Pat HudginsTue, 02 Oct 2012 17:27:40 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5c4cecad04fc6f000002
In the last six years;
Metals up 300-350%
Petrol up over 100%
Food up over 100%
All in a recession when cost historically abate.
Incomes for most at 1995 levels. High cost when incomes are deflated = STAGFLATION.
Lack of descretionary income means lack of demand. Soft demand does not inspire more employment.
The Fed's answer is more QE, which is inflationary, especially when combined with the finacial pirates ability to manipulate commodity cost with all their free money. The majority of those in the middle are stretched to the breaking point, or economically impotent.
Essentially, the money cabal and those under their influence, who have given them the laws and regulations to plunder at will, have pulled off one of the largest transfers of wealth in modern times.
And it continues as we speak; they will not be happy until they clean all the meat off the bones.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5baf6bb3f7d143000009orsogrigioTue, 02 Oct 2012 17:25:03 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5baf6bb3f7d143000009
Phantom, one thing is the nature of human beings, a different one is the forecast of a phenomenon, My point is that if one starts from wrong data, will end up in nonsenses. "Wrong" stands for "not applicable", "not related" not just numerically wrong, of course.Has mr Grice considered that in times of turmoil, when the money was "hard", it is obviuos that prices will increase ? Just there are less farmers around to grow crops, and this makes prices higher, and there are less farmers because there is turmoil. No corpse has heartbeat, but this doesn't imply that you die ONLY because of heart failure. Instead of witches he could have taken human fertility ratio (decreasing with inflation in the same years) or average age at death (idem) or whatever. The question is inflation brought about turmoil or viceversa ? IMHO BI is intersting, but has to be used together with a grain of common sense and eyes (mentally) wide open. BTW turmoil, farmers, crops are no longer so simply linked TODAY owing to machinery, biology, OGM, ferilizers etc. Do you agree ? there are less and less farmers with a growing output in the same time ...http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b53506bb3f74b32000002MajorTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:49:20 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b53506bb3f74b32000002
"nothing particularly inflationary in the current cost of goods"
Please take a long, hard, look at our best leading indicator -- inflation in very broad-based commodity indices -- as influence by real interest rates -- (nominal interest less inflation) on <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bfI" target="_blank">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=bfI</a>http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5204ecad04235a000009MajorTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:43:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b5204ecad04235a000009
Well put!
To get there from here is going to require progress where there's been zero, zip, naada -- since the start of the Great Recession. It’s time for write-downs on banks' bad loan assets and a full-court shift of all "Recovery Efforts" away from the bloated Financial Sector that gave us this mess -- directly to the hugely impared Real Economy.
Employment (Labor Capacity Utilization): <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO" target="_blank">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO</a>
and
Earned Income, as a % of GDP :
<a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=931" target="_blank">http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=931</a>
Unless we SOON make discernable progress on these two, our economy will continue to decay and wither – perhaps irrevocably.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4eebecad04d355000001KARMA SCIENCETue, 02 Oct 2012 16:30:35 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4eebecad04d355000001
Yes, the dark clouds are gathering, Europa will collapse, then Asia and the U.S. Major world crisis.
A depression much worse then 1930. U.S. Debt 16 Trillion. Yes Obama ! He knows but does not want you to know that he knows. Then he will look " bad. "
Get ready, literally, for a world crisis/ depression. Prepare... no speculation !http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4d4f6bb3f77827000010PhantomriderTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:23:43 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4d4f6bb3f77827000010
He is highlighting human nature which has not changed since the XV century. Human greed, envy and ignorance are still rampant. You nly need to peruse BI every day,http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4c996bb3f78629000001derektheunderTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:20:41 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4c996bb3f78629000001
Go do your own shopping for a while, Rainman. Costs of goods aren't out of control yet, but they are well on their way if something doesn't drastically change its course.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4971ecad04044b000001jsmoeTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:07:13 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4971ecad04044b000001
So in other words... everything is, as it's always been and always will be.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b48956bb3f77d2000000aHmmmTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:03:33 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b48956bb3f77d2000000a
Based on what, job growth? Oh yeah, there isn't any. Salary growth? Where?
Your opinion comes not from the "bull's hooves". Your opinion comes from the other end of the bull.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b483169beddfd11000012lark williamsTue, 02 Oct 2012 16:01:53 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b483169beddfd11000012
You must not be shopping for food or gasolinehttp://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b419069beddb77a00000fThoughtofTheDayTue, 02 Oct 2012 15:33:36 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b419069beddb77a00000f
That made me smile thanks.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4071eab8ea215a000001David BrowerTue, 02 Oct 2012 15:28:49 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b4071eab8ea215a000001
Grice seems to have intentionally confused increase in the money supply with increase in the cost of goods, which are rather distinct notions. There is nothing particularly inflationary in the current cost of goods, which makes the whole analogy rather unmotivated.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b3e9a6bb3f7fe0c000007True Gold BugTue, 02 Oct 2012 15:20:58 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b3e9a6bb3f7fe0c000007
Did Joe W. approve this posting on BI?http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b346769bedd7c6000000eTheRexicanTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:37:27 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b346769bedd7c6000000e
We don't have to cede all of the power to the banks. We could try increasing wages and breaking up monopolies. That worked quite well in the past. Of course to a SocGen guy, this is the definition of the end of the world.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b3346eab8ead236000027txchick57(?)Tue, 02 Oct 2012 14:32:38 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b3346eab8ead236000027
Who cares. Another loser under the bull's hooves.http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b32f9eab8ea153900000c7footMooseTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:31:21 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b32f9eab8ea153900000c
Add a comment...http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b32c36bb3f76a77000005orsogrigioTue, 02 Oct 2012 14:30:27 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b32c36bb3f76a77000005
looking at inflation tables and witch trials in XVII Century and getting forecast for XXI monetary strategy seems to me a bit peculiar. The point is that we are using a KIND of currency with rules completely different from the currency of pre-computers era (say up to '80s of XX Century) . IMHO mr. Grice has written a nice article about lingerie for Alpha Centari inhabitants: it's the nearest star, but not necessarily there is somebody up there, and with (only) two sexes. Historia est magistra vitae, history teaches you life, the Romans used to say, but thru the history of Punic wars it's difficult to get an idea of the evolution of the PC, isn't it? BTW, when I started working, in 1971, I had no PC on my desk. Now I earn my bread and butter out of it. Stange enough ... and there were a lot of people doing jobs no longer existing and none doing jobs not yet existing. (incidentally, forecasting a bear market, in the long run, you are right. A bull as well ...)http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b297869beddb445000005MajorTue, 02 Oct 2012 13:50:48 -0400http://www.businessinsider.com/c/506b297869beddb445000005
Excellent Op Ed and touches on all of the major symptoms manifested by the "Patient Zero" of that new economic disease, properly named the "Green Shoots & Soft Spots" disorder.