May 20, 2002  Top hurricane experts
from NOAA today said the 2002
Atlantic hurricane season will likely have normal to slightly
above normal levels of activity. The outlook calls for the potential
of nine to thirteen tropical storms, with six to eight hurricanes,
and two to three classified as major hurricanes (category 3 or
higher on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale). Officials advised residents in Atlantic
and Gulf Coast states to be prepared throughout the season, which
runs June 1 through November 30. (Click NOAA satellite image
for larger view of Hurricane Andrew as it approached Florida
on August 23, 1992. Please credit "NOAA.")

At today's news conference
at NOAA's National Hurricane
Center in Miami, Fla., officials also marked the start of
the nationwide awareness campaign led by NOAA, the Federal Emergency
Management Agency and storm-vulnerable states to increase preparedness
and safety among residents. Recognizing the importance of these
efforts, President George W. Bush signed a proclamation announcing
May 19-25 as National
Hurricane Awareness Week.

Speaking on behalf of the President,
U.S. Department of Commerce
Deputy Secretary Sam Bodman said, "One of the most damaging,
and potentially deadly weather events is a hurricane. Hurricanes
have a devastating impact on our economy, causing billions of
dollars in losses and damages, but the human toll can also be
very high when people aren't prepared. President Bush asks all
Americans in harm's way to be more vigilant about preparing for
hurricanes in advance, rather than responding only when they
threaten."

In 2001,
there were 15 named storms,
nine of which became hurricanes. A normal Atlantic hurricane
season typically brings an average of 10 tropical storms, of
which six reach hurricane strength, with two classified as major.
Above-normal activity has been observed during six of the last
seven Atlantic hurricane seasons. The key climate patterns guiding
this year's expected activity are long-term patterns of tropical
rainfall, air pressure and higher temperatures of the Atlantic
Ocean that are more conducive to hurricane development. These
warmer ocean temperatures, combined with lower wind shear in
the hurricane development region, have historically generated
higher numbers of major hurricanes.

Vice Admiral Conrad
C. Lautenbacher, Jr., USN (Ret.), undersecretary of Commerce
for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA Administrator said, "We
will continue to monitor the evolving climate patterns closely
over the next several months to see how they may impact the August
to October peak period of the season." The agency will release
an updated hurricane season outlook in early August. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of hurricanes of category 3 or greater
strength over the past century.)

Lautenbacher said, "This
is the fifth year that NOAA has provided this forecast and, based
on our success with the previous four outlooks, we have growing
confidence in our ability to outline how the hurricane season
will shape up. Residents in hurricane-prone areas must keep up
their guard since it only takes one hurricane to destroy a community
and lives."

Lautenbacher pointed to continuing
improvements in technology and research enabling forecasters
to produce the 2002 outlook. "Better data from NOAA's environmental
satellites, better models, the latest supercomputers and an improved
ability to monitor and understand global climate patterns are
helping to create better long-term and short-term forecasts,"
Lautenbacher said.

August 2002 marks the 10th
anniversary of Hurricane
Andrew, one of the nation's costliest hurricanes. Andrew
hit Florida and Louisiana, claiming 26 lives and more than 125,000
homes. Storm damage exceeded $40 billion. "Since that time,
NOAA has continued to make significant investments to enhance
our forecasting and warning capabilities," added Lautenbacher.

FEMA Region IV director Ken
Burris said, "As we prepare for another hurricane season
with an ever-growing population living in vulnerable coastal
areas, we all share the responsibility of preventing the loss
of life, and minimizing the damage to property from hurricanes."

Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center
in Miami said, "The public hasn't seen a land-falling hurricane
in two seasons and we know from experienceout of sight
is out of mind. These are dangerous storms requiring the public
to take precautions now before the season starts." He recalled
hurricane-spawned disasters can occur any season. Hurricane Andrew,
in particular, developed during a season of below-normal hurricane
activity. Mayfield added, "We don't want people to be caught
off guard by a land-falling tropical storm or hurricane."

Mayfield
also highlighted the dangers of inland flooding. "Tropical
Storm Allisonresponsible for at least 24 deaths and
$5 billion in damages from Texas to Pennsylvania in June 2001is
a tragic example of why the nation's focus should remain on the
impact of a land-falling storm, not just the number of storms
that could occur." He added, "While inland flooding
and hurricane force winds can be devastating, the storm surge
from hurricanes possess the greatest potential for loss of life.
When an evacuation order is given, residents should treat it
as a life or death matter." (Click NOAA satellite image
for larger view of before and after flooding in eastern North
Carolina after Hurricane Floyd made landfall in September 1999.)

The Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
is a consolidated team effort consisting of NOAA's
Climate Prediction Center, the Hurricane Research Division
and the National Hurricane Center. NOAA meteorologists use a
suite of high-tech tools to forecast tropical storms and hurricanes.
Forecasters rely on information gathered by NOAA and U.S. Air
Force Reserve personnel who fly directly into the storms in "hurricane
hunting" aircraft, NOAA satellites and NEXRAD WSR 88D
radars.

NOAA's
National Weather Service
is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings
for the United States and its territories. The National Weather
Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning
and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and
property and enhance the national economy.