Cooling of home prices in forecast

The days of double-digit increases in home sale prices could be ending in Southwest Florida.

Home prices are forecast to rise 3.6 percent in Sarasota and Manatee counties through mid-2014, according to a CoreLogic Case-Shiller report out Wednesday.

Prices are projected to climb a slightly higher 4.3 percent in Charlotte County from July 1 through June 30 of next year, the data provider said.

That would be a marked slowdown from the 12.7 percent increase in Sarasota-Manatee and the 14.3 percent gain in Charlotte in the prior 12-month period, based on CoreLogic's numbers.

Local real estate agents say that, while CoreLogic's forecast may be a little low, most anticipate home price increases will ease in the months ahead.

"That sounds a little on the conservative side to me," said Roger Piro, president of the Sarasota Association of Realtors. "I would expect probably 6 or 7 percent.

"We are already seeing some cooling off, but I've also read some reports that say that may be temporary," he added.

A total of 953 homes in Sarasota and Manatee counties sold in September, up 10.8 percent over the year. The median sale price -- half the homes sold for more, half for less -- was $199,000, down by 5.2 percent from August but up by 17.8 percent for the year.

Peter Crowley, president and co-owner of Re/Max Alliance Group in Sarasota and Manatee counties, noted there are signs that the rate of sales price increases is stabilizing.

"I think this is positive for the market, because an 18 percent increase is not realistic for the long term," he said.

Piro said annual price gains of 2.5 percent to 5 percent would represent a normal range.

"That would be healthy for both buyers and sellers," he said.

The increases have come as the region has been recovering from a post-bubble downward spiral in prices, so a snap-back with double-digit gains was not unexpected, he said. Home prices nationwide increased by 10.1 percent in the second quarter of 2013 compared with a year ago, the analyst said.

Appreciation across all U.S. markets is now expected to slow to an average of 5.4 percent.

"Prices are now rising in nearly 90 percent of metro areas, and in all metro areas with populations greater than 1 million," said David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller.

"The strongest growth continues to be recorded in cities that were at the center of the housing bubble, but investor demand in those markets appears to be waning, meaning rapid rates of price appreciation are likely unsustainable," he said.

Home price increases in other Florida cities that have seen double-digit gains are expected to ease as well. Projections for the next year include 6.2 percent in Tampa, 5.1 percent in Orlando and West Palm Beach, 2.2 percent in Fort Lauderdale and 1.5 percent in Miami.