This morning we had a coastal low pass to the southeast of the area with heavy rain and even sleet over southern NJ and into Central NJ, little to no precipitation made it NW of I95 corridor but this afternoon you wouldn’t even know what a nasty morning it was , as skies have quickly cleared out and temperatures are warming into the mid 50s to low 60s under a downsloping northwest wind

Late this afternoon a cold front will come through which will make for yet another chilly night tonight and Saturday with temperatures again below normal, im sure people are getting tired of hearing that, there is better news for next week though

Tonight lows will drop into the low 20s NE PA to low to mid 30s along the coast and highs on Saturday will rise towards the mid 40s NE PA to lower to mid 50s along the coast, generally 5-8 degrees below average

Sunday a clipper system will pass north of the area, leading to a southwest wind and temperatures near normal in the lower to mid 50s NE PA to the lower 60s just away from the coast, coastal areas may have to deal with marine influences from the still very cold Atlantic waters so highs along the coast will likely struggle in the low ti mid 50s, especially along south-facing beaches like Long Island. there could also be an isolated shower with the best chance the father north you go but overall it should be a nice day

Monday and Tuesday also look pretty nice with temperatures above normal for a change and highs in the mid to upper 50s NE PA to lower to mid 60s elsewhere, besides the immediate shore where highs will again struggle in the 50s , a front will begin to settle around the area so there will be periods of clouds and the chance for scattered showers but there will likely still be some sunshine , Tuesday will likely be the warmer of the 2 where mid to upper 60s could be widespread , especially away from the coast

Wednesday is where the forecast becomes less pleasant

Thanks to our persistent negative NAO block, the front will be forced south to linger over the forecast area, we will see a tight temperature gradient set up along with an increasing chance of rain, highs will struggle in the lower to mid 50s for NE PA to New York City , while southern NJ nad Philadelphia will likely remain in the 60s

Similar conditions will persist into Thursday with temperatures again dropping to below normal levels, the good news however is that we wont be as below normal as its been, this air mass with be more maritime in nature rather than Arctic/Polar in nature

Friday we will likely see a storm system drive towards the Great Lakes, this should be enough to drive the front back north with a southwest wind and warmer conditions , but also as a cold front comes east rain and possibly a lot of it will be possible between Thursday night and Saturday as the front crawls east with areas of low pressure developing along it

Depending on timing of the front and its rain, Friday could be a very warm day if the rain holds off, temperatures in the 60s and even 70s area wide would be likely, if the rain begins Thursday night or Friday AM though temperatures will likely be stuck in the 50s and low 60s again

The front will likely clear by Saturday morning, and we will see a fairly interesting yet frustrating pattern from people who want the spring warmth

With the MJO lingering between phase 3 and neutral, we should be in or entering as pattern with a trough in the west and big ol ridge in the east , and we will have the trough in the western US , and a ridge trying to develop over the southeast ,the problem again lies with the continued negative NAO block and persistent upper level low over eastern Canada. This will lead to a battle between very warm air trying to come from the south and west , and polar air trying to come from the north over the forecast area

This type of weather pattern will keep a tight temperature gradient over the area, will keep the truly warm air south of us and will keep the potential for below normal temperatures alive and well, the good news here is that this pattern supports more in the way of Marine air masses rather than polar and Arctic air masses in nature, so we wont see the real cold nights and temperatures wont be too far below average, the bad news in this pattern supports unsettled weather with this clash of air masses and day time temperatures below normal levels and a lot of days with a raw easterly wind , I expect this general pattern to continue with no end in sight as there is no support for the neagtive NAO block to lose its grip over the Northeastern US.