It’s early to have an ‘important’ game in a long season, but the Calgary Flames have one tonight at Rexall. Despite poor possession numbers and chaos blue, despite voodoo goaltending and a coach who says genuinely unusual things, the Calgary Flames have to win the game. Their season depends on it.

WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS, THIS MORNING

No. 11 Edmonton Oilers 11GP, 4-7-0 (8 points)

No. 12 Colorado Avalanche 10GP, 3-6-1 (7 points)

No. 13 Calgary Flames 11GP, 2-8-1 (5 points)

No. 14 Anaheim Ducks 10GP, 1-7-2 (4 points)

All four of these teams are in real trouble (the Bettman point!!!) but the Flames (and Ducks) are staring a very long season in the face at an early stage. Although Oilers fans have a right to be impatient, a win tonight (and a 5-7-0 record) would offer some hope for the future. Coming out of the worst part of the schedule, with the Flyers on the schedule this week (Philadelphia’s defense does a lot of things Edmonton fans would recognize). The Battle of Alberta has a dubious backdrop at this time, but at least it’s a story line.

OILERS BLUE THROUGH ELEVEN

This is sorted by Corsi Rel, I added it in the hopes of gaining some insight into Mark Fayne’s fall from grace. Based on these numbers, he’s absolutely one of the six best solutions on the roster:

Remember, our eyes can play tricks on us, that’s why we look at the numbers to confirm. Why is Fayne posting these fancy stats and getting deeper in the doghouse? Why did he play so little the other night? I think it has to do with Todd McLellan’s preference on the defense, and Eric Gryba’s emergence as the shutdown defenseman who plays the most minutes. Gryba is less expensive, bigger, more physical and of course he was acquired by GM Peter Chiarelli. All of those things may contribute to Fayne’s recent handling, and I suspect we’ll see him dealt at some point this season. His footspeed is not good, and his defense of sorties (in terms of decision making) is often alarming.

What does that mean for the Oilers blue? Well, by the time Justin Schultz returns we’ll know more about Darnell Nurse and where he stands. Perhaps Todd McLellan will also continue to give Brandon Davidson a push to see if the young blue continues to play at par. There’s also Griffin Reinhart, who played well enough early with Eric Gryba to stay in the lineup until injuries hit.

Andrej Sekera—Brandon Davidson

Darnell Nurse—Oscar Klefbom

Griffin Reinhart—Eric Gryba

Could we see HS’s for Mark Fayne and Andrew Ference? It may happen. One thing I believe the box above shows? Giving Justin Schultz a tough zone start probably isn’t the right choice. I believe Dallas Eakins got it right.

DANGER FENWICK RATE PER 60

I lifted this from the brilliant blog Oilers Nerd Alert, please click on the link because I didn’t ask permission to do it. I think young G is on to something here, this DFA/60 number (Dangerous Fenwick) from the Habs game is very insightful and offers some reasoning re: Fayne’s handling. I have been (and am) very conservative in adopting new stats, for two reasons:

The idea is to post stats that both inform and can be easily understood.

I like this for one other major reason, via GMoney: Interesting fact – the TOI for the defensemen is directly correlated with how good they were at preventing dangerous shots against.

That’s a strong indicator a solid backward Bill James (James would ask a question and search for the answer, then track it back using logic and good sense). The above item from G is exactly that kind of logic and reason. There’s something here, or perhaps more accurate, there’s something I am able to comprehend as having value. That’s kind of what Bill James was good at it, and it’s wildly important. It also gives us a glimpse into why Mark Fayne isn’t playing as much.

OILERS FORWARDS THROUGH ELEVEN

Oh that crazy Taylor Hall is always falling down and passing silly and looking like a man who can’t remember the last thought that went through his head. That’s about right. Hall’s critics often deliver high comedy, as the actual performance is absolutely dandy again this season. Slow start but he’s killing it; the man can push a river.

Connor McDavid’s 5×5/60 is dreamy and his on-ice performances are must-watch events for hockey fans. I know older people can be irritating when talking to the young set, but please enjoy this young man’s rookie season. You won’t see another like it in your lifetime and if you do, well, you’ll get emotional watching the games. What a stunning talent. In game 11 of his NHL career he beat one of the best defensemen in the game, on a play that might have resulted in a penalty. How a man could be both unavoidable to the viewer and stealth to the opposition is the stuff of legends. We’re running out of words.

Nail Yakupov’s boxcars are splendid and his level of awareness—especially in the offensive end—is reaching new levels. There’s a tendency to credit others for his development, but Nail is his own man and we rarely take into account that lost half-season. Hard to believe this is the same player, although he reminds us from time to time with an errant pass or a burst to nowhere in order leave his man open in the defensive zone. Damnable dog whistles are everywhere!

A final note: This is a big damned game. Seriously. The Oilers are 4-7-0 and that’s a reflection of the good and bad on this team. If they can win tonight, no matter what it does to Calgary, it offers players, fans and management some kind of hope for this season. It can’t always be about trade deadline selloffs and ‘let’s look at the 2016 draft’ and with a win tonight we can dare to dream.

Peter Chiarelli is going to make a move to improve the defense, I’m convinced of it. I’m also pretty sure the trade is going to involve Mark Fayne, and further that it’s more likely to be a trade that helps ‘in the now’ if this team is 6-7-0 after the Philly game.

Godspeed, men. We believe in most of you.

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That the Oilers are still being outworked everywhere on the ice is just beyond pathetic. Despite the refs shenanigans, the Flames have been the better team, and for that fact, I don’t even have any words.

APBA Baseball taught me so much. In that game, you have to play your players the number of games they did in the actual season, but no more. So, if you’re trying to win the pennant you go crazy with the good ones, but eventually know that the poorer players are going to have to be used.

I feel like tonight is an APBA ‘must play’ for Andrew Ference, and I wish it was not the case.

wow bad goaltending, bad coaches choice of line up, not ready to play in the 1st period, to much ference , to many lost baddles along the boards, and did I mention F**kin bad goaltending tonight. We suck tonight against a team that played the night before and 3rd game in 4 nights.

LT asked on ON when we might see LB in the bigs….Maybe sooner than we thought. That’s a horrible game by Talbot. Just fucking horrible. Your starter at home can’t be bringing out a bag of shit like that against your biggest rival.

Centre of attention: Can’t really blame the coach, he has to play somebody. Too many injuries ATM. Maybe they talked to the doctor and Rienhart wasn’t ready…

Fayne? I understand sending a message, but shorten the D bench. It’s not like they’ve been pushing a vet D corps back to back or anything. What’s the average age of Klefbom-Nurse-Davidson-Gryba-Sekera?

Between the icing non-call and the shitty goaltending and the called-off goal and TFCAF, that was definitely not a game where the paying fans got their money’s worth. Even the tier 3 fans like me who are watching on free TV.

The other person that deserves a swift kick in the ass tonight is Pouliot. Since he has been here there have been three (counting tonight) games where he has taken an offensive zone penalty in the last 3minutes of a tied game.

How is it on the coach. Other than not pulling Scrivens I can’t really blame him. Ference and Gryba played 13 and 14 minutes. MacT made sure that Ference remains on the roster no matter what. He lost two starting dmen to injury so he used him. Most of the d men are too one dimensional or not effective enough. Fault is Chias for not giving him the guns for the season.

Lowetide please don’t say the Oilers let anyone off the hook when the goalie gave 2 goals to the Flames. Bad goaltending. Sounds familiar. Work their butts off to come back and that’s what happens. Talbot has been average at best. Young team needs better goaltending.

Agreed, Talbot set the barn on fire tonight. The game reminds of the Scriven’s adventure against Vancouver last year. He did everything in his power that game to make sure the Oilers lost. Talbot was bad against Montreal and he was very bad tonight.

Not to make any excuses for Talbot, it was in fact a terrible goal. But I have no doubt that he was dumbfounded by the no icing call and that’s what made him lose focus. You could almost see him let up and then have an “oh shit I can’t believe that’s not icing” moment and scramble to catch up to the play.

I’m not generally one to bitch about officiating, but this is two games already this season that the officials played a deciding factor in the outcome and that should be unacceptable. Just fucking brutal.

This team is average on their best day. Can’t afford to have this many anchors against a bad team.
Chia fix the damn D already! What a waste of everybody’s time!
And Fk are the 3 and 4 lines a black hole for O! Did they have a scoring chance? How did MacT put it? You have to be at least a threat to score at some point!
Overreaction on most of the above ad course considering Scrivens was between the pipes

I am tired of referees being exempt from having to face the mob after fucking up a play. Players, coachers, GMs, owners etc all have to face the music. Referees nothing. I don’t like that and if we are going to continue giving them more and more discretion through reviews they have to own up to their decisions.

I agree with MacT comment but not so with Fayne. You can make an example of him but still dress him and have him on the bench, that way you at least have the option of a stabilizing player if and when you need them (god damn it would have been nice to draw Sekera-Fayne in that third). Andrew Ference is done playing NHL hockey. NO matter the situation the Oilers are not better when he is on the ice.

Oilers this year are the worst team in hockey history breaking out of their zone, and that is WITHOUT pressure on them. I thought Talbot made some big saves that could have had Calgary leading 6-2, but I think that is the 2nd one of those this year he has let in, Dubnyk did same in his last year with Oil.

This left a bad taste in my mouth. That is 3/12 games that they weren’t ready to start. This was a very serious problem last year and it just shows a lack of commitment in my mind. You have to realize the opportunity and man coming up dry like this was just a very very bad outcome.

I don’t think I have been this frustrated with a single loss since game seven in 2006.

Between the phantom goalie interference, the lacklustre goaltending, the awful final goal in the last ten seconds, the near comeback and the fact that this was against the Flames, I can’t imagine a more frustrating set of circumstances.

And the Oilers did not perhaps deserve to win all that much, but is there a team that has a more undeserved win than the Flames in this one?

See I wasn’t nervous until that last icing. The whole time I figured they would come back and win it. Wasn’t surprised when Drai tied it. Talbot… Man that is why we hired you, so that kind of shit doesn’t happen. Brutal

oilswell: Letestu also cost McDavid an assist on the PP goal called off when he almost killed Ramo with brutal interference.

jake70:
Oilers this year are the worst team in hockey history breaking out of their zone, and that is WITHOUT pressure on them. I thought Talbot made some big saves that could have had Calgary leading 6-2, but I think that is the 2nd one of those this year he has let in, Dubnyk did same in his lastyear with Oil.

There has to be no team in history that makes it more difficult for themselves than the Oilers. You watch any other game in the NHL, seriously any other game, and I don’t know how you can’t be left baffled as to how other teams have it so easy to do the simple things. Breaking out with the puck, setting up on the PP, etc.
I say it every game, why is it so hard for even McD to get a pass? He has to almost create an ungodly take-away just to get the puck.

The other person that deserves a swift kick in the ass tonight is Pouliot. Since he has been here there have been three (counting tonight) games where he has taken an offensive zone penalty in the last 3minutes of a tied game.

I have absolutely zero tolerance for that kind of selfish play

I would agree with you if Pouliot actually took a penalty. It was borderline diving, but the D-man (I think Widemann) fell of his own volition. It just wasn’t even close to a penalty.

Cassie Campbell is a terrible TV personality

Fuck Talbot for tonight. Talbot wears this, sorry. You can pick apart the stats all you want but the Oilers claw back from 4-2 (in no small part due to Talbot) and Talbot lets in a goal that I wouldn’t let in 9 times out of 10 if you strapped pads to me. All that happens before that goal is meaningless. If you watch before, he did not re-focus after the non-icing call until it was too late. 5-7 or even 4-7-1 is far different from 4-8.

See I wasn’t nervous until that last icing. The whole time I figured they would come back and win it. Wasn’t surprised when Drai tied it. Talbot… Man that is why we hired you, so that kind of shit doesn’t happen. Brutal

We actually hired him for far better than that. Bachmann could have prevented that “shit from happening too.” We hired him to win us games and to keep us in games. Taking us out of games shouldn’t even be a question with him.

I just watched that icing for the 15th time. The back linesman still has his hand up calling icing, the backside linesman (who is in no ones view) calls no icing and then Sekera indeed touches the puck. Pretty bad.

Woogie63:
Help me understand icing.Sekera is at least tied with the Flame and touches the puck first (without a doubt), but it is not icing?Is this a first over the dot thing?

Completely agree that the play should have been blown dead when Sekera touched the puck. The linesman up ice had put his hand in the air when the puck was fired down the ice, and no one touched it until it ringed the boards.

This team is fragile enough as it is without having to play against the zebras.

The thing that drives me batshit crazy about this team is that they play basically 2 games a year that are actually meaningful and they fuck it up every time.

I just want them to win the ones they have to win. I don’t care if they make the playoffs just get some fucking killer instinct. You have a chance to beat a rival and crush their season at the end of a tough stretch of games for them and you blow it. You ice players who are not even replacement level. You give the game away. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck.

Sekera got killed tonight, but fuck if he doesn’t have the highest expectations placed on him by a fanbase who has been chewing up and spitting out his player type since Poti. Stupid guy should have just took less money somewhere else where his role would soften the impact of his shortcomings.

We knew he was 2 or 3 defensemen. He’s played most of the season as a 2 or higher and done well in that capacity with a partner who just got healthy scratched.

Meanwhile fucking YEG media mob boss Spector can’t figure out through his shitty glasses what good things Sekera does on the ice.

It’s amazing how we’re only allowed to have one, maybe two of these guys on our D corpse at a time. Every fucking season.