Rookies

School picture day came and went for the Jacksonville Jaguars last week and Leonard Fournette was nowhere to be found. Instead, he opted to bail on his team who then repaid the favor by benching his ass. But this doesn’t appear to be the first time Fournette’s failed to adhere to team rules and, in fact, it’s likely one of many that led to his ultimate benching. This is nothing new. Young, incredibly talented players do – and have always done – stupid shit. Does that stupid shit warrant closer inspection? Yes, yes it does.

It happens almost every year. A first round draft pick who’s expected to change the fortunes of a perennial basement dweller and sure enough, they’re nothing but hot garbage. Or you’ll see an almost nobody fifth rounder come out of nowhere and make the Pro Bowl.1

Over the last five years, there have been some pretty outstanding rookies that have made their way onto the field. And they’ve come from all throughout the draft. They’ve made a huge impact on both real, live-action football, the one that we all used to watch, and Fantasy Football, the one we’re willing to trade our first born for.

Here’s a look at how every single offensive rookie measured up in terms of first year output since the 2012 season:

Obviously, rookie performance runs the gamut from earth shatteringly good2 to holy shit, why did the Browns draft you in the first round, there had to have been other options, right?3

It’ll takes years of player development and performance before we can accurately judge the 2017 NFL Draft but what good has patience ever done anyone? You’ve got a fantasy draft coming up in a few months! Let’s take a look at some of the big rookie names that’ll be in play come August.

Wide Receivers

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

In Tennessee, a stable of durable running backs cut into the passing production of Marcus Mariota during his surprisingly efficient sophomore season: DeMarco Murray’s bounce back year was a bright spot in Mike Mularkey’s “exotic smashmouth” offense while last year’s second rounder, Derrick Henry, had a productive season given his limited touches. Even if Henry continues to perform in an expanded role, for the Titans to get back into contention in the AFC South, they needed nab a top receiver this off-season. Well, in the first round, the Titans selected record-setting Davis out of Western Michigan. Davis figures to earn a starting role right away, opposite Rishard Matthews in an offense that has something of an identity crisis at receiver. With his size and versatility, Davis should see time both in the slot and on the outside. His speed and ability to obtain massive YAC yards has some ears perked up in the fantasy realm but let’s temper those expectations: he’ll likely be Mariota’s 3rd option this year, as safety valve tight end Delanie Walker continues to roam the middle of the field, gobbling up targets. Still, some mild health concerns aside, Davis has real upside and could blossom into Mariota’s #1 wideout by season’s end.

Verdict: Good bench depth as your 4th or 5th WR; worth a late-round pick or a few auction dollars but not much more. Yet.

It’ll takes years of player development and performance before we can accurately judge the 2017 NFL Draft but what good has patience ever done anyone? You’ve got a fantasy draft coming up in a few months! Let’s take a look at some of the big rookie names that’ll be in play come August.

Quarterbacks

Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears

As you’ve no doubt heard, the 2017 NFL Draft was not a strong one for quarterbacks. Apparently, that little tidbit didn’t make its way to the Chicago Bears who went full Leeroy Jenkins and barreled headfirst into an insane trade for the 2nd overall pick in order to snag Mitchell Trubisky. It’s entirely possible that, before he’s even snapped the ball once, Trubisky is already more hated in Chicago than Jay Cutler ever was. Read that sentence again. It doesn’t seem possible and yet, after signing Mike Glennon to a preposterously lucrative free agent contract, the Bears went all in on Trubisky and, well, here we are. This is what self-combustion looks like in the NFL. There is no fantasy value here. Trubisky likely won’t start until mid-season and has no one to throw the ball to. Apologies to the Kevin White truthers out there.