Thursday, November 19, 2015

Race Analysis: Toronto Waterfront Marathon 2014 vs 2015

I am finally posting this analysis. It took me longer because I decided to automate the table generation process with comma-separated dump files (CSV) that I can import into a spreadsheet. It was so much faster formatting the data once I did that! I just need to do it now for the overall data updates.

Toronto Waterfront Marathon is another top 25 feeder with which I was not familiar until this week. IMO, it is relatively new. Inaugural race was in 2000, so only 15 years running which, compared to others like NYC, Boston, Chicago, LA, etc, is young. Shoot, even San Diego Rock n Roll is older (first event was in 1998).

The qualifier age group data...

AG Group

2014 Qualifiers

2014 AG Total

Percentage

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

80

574

13.94%

78

543

14.36%

F35-39

34

221

15.38%

34

203

16.75%

F40-44

48

245

19.59%

46

244

18.85%

F45-49

55

199

27.64%

33

136

24.26%

F50-54

21

101

20.79%

28

110

25.45%

F55-59

22

61

36.07%

3

29

10.34%

F60-64

4

19

21.05%

4

21

19.05%

F65-69

1

3

33.33%

2

6

33.33%

F70-74

0

1

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

92

831

11.07%

86

768

11.20%

M35-39

45

386

11.66%

56

362

15.47%

M40-44

57

429

13.29%

60

445

13.48%

M45-49

66

349

18.91%

78

332

23.49%

M50-54

57

265

21.51%

45

264

17.05%

M55-59

33

156

21.15%

41

177

23.16%

M60-64

25

80

31.25%

28

70

40.00%

M65-69

12

39

30.77%

10

32

31.25%

M70-74

1

5

20.00%

1

8

12.50%

M75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

Totals

653

3964

16.47%

633

3750

16.88%

Unlike most of the other races we have looked at in this qualification window, the qualification rate is up! But, like the trend, the participation rate is down. So we see fewer qualifiers 3.06%

Here is the margin data:

Margin

2014

Percentage

2015

Percentage

<1 minute

47

7.20%

40

6.32%

1-2 minutes

45

6.89%

51

8.06%

2-3 minutes

36

5.51%

24

3.79%

3-4 minutes

29

4.44%

29

4.58%

4-5 minutes

29

4.44%

29

4.58%

5-10 minutes

108

16.54%

136

21.48%

10-20 minutes

181

27.72%

163

25.75%

20> minutes

178

27.26%

161

25.43%

Totals

653

633

The Squeaker Pack in 2014 was 28.48%. In 2015 it was 27.33%, following the trend of runners qualifying with more margin.

Bonus Data:

AG

Year

< 1 min

1 - 2 min

2 - 3 min

3 - 4 min

4 - 5 min

5 - 10 min

10 - 20 min

20 > min

F18-34

TORONTO2014

10.0%

8.7%

8.7%

2.5%

5.0%

13.8%

18.8%

32.5%

F18-34

TORONTO2015

6.4%

7.7%

5.1%

5.1%

2.6%

17.9%

23.1%

32.1%

F35-39

TORONTO2014

5.9%

2.9%

8.8%

11.8%

14.7%

5.9%

29.4%

20.6%

F35-39

TORONTO2015

2.9%

11.8%

5.9%

0.0%

11.8%

32.4%

26.5%

8.8%

F40-44

TORONTO2014

6.3%

4.2%

2.1%

4.2%

6.3%

20.8%

31.3%

25.0%

F40-44

TORONTO2015

0.0%

4.3%

2.2%

4.3%

4.3%

32.6%

37.0%

15.2%

F45-49

TORONTO2014

9.1%

7.3%

0.0%

7.3%

0.0%

18.2%

32.7%

25.5%

F45-49

TORONTO2015

9.1%

3.0%

3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

30.3%

30.3%

21.2%

F50-54

TORONTO2014

4.8%

9.5%

0.0%

4.8%

14.3%

23.8%

19.0%

23.8%

F50-54

TORONTO2015

10.7%

10.7%

3.6%

0.0%

3.6%

17.9%

39.3%

14.3%

F55-59

TORONTO2014

4.5%

4.5%

0.0%

4.5%

4.5%

13.6%

36.4%

31.8%

F55-59

TORONTO2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

33.3%

33.3%

33.3%

F60-64

TORONTO2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

75.0%

F60-64

TORONTO2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

25.0%

0.0%

50.0%

F65-69

TORONTO2014

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

F65-69

TORONTO2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

50.0%

50.0%

M18-34

TORONTO2014

5.4%

10.9%

9.8%

5.4%

2.2%

17.4%

16.3%

32.6%

M18-34

TORONTO2015

5.8%

7.0%

1.2%

4.7%

7.0%

20.9%

17.4%

36.0%

M35-39

TORONTO2014

11.1%

6.7%

8.9%

4.4%

8.9%

17.8%

28.9%

13.3%

M35-39

TORONTO2015

8.9%

12.5%

7.1%

8.9%

5.4%

17.9%

23.2%

16.1%

M40-44

TORONTO2014

8.8%

3.5%

5.3%

5.3%

3.5%

19.3%

38.6%

15.8%

M40-44

TORONTO2015

8.3%

11.7%

6.7%

3.3%

5.0%

25.0%

18.3%

21.7%

M45-49

TORONTO2014

6.1%

7.6%

3.0%

1.5%

0.0%

24.2%

37.9%

19.7%

M45-49

TORONTO2015

9.0%

7.7%

2.6%

6.4%

3.8%

20.5%

25.6%

24.4%

M50-54

TORONTO2014

8.8%

10.5%

5.3%

3.5%

3.5%

8.8%

28.1%

31.6%

M50-54

TORONTO2015

4.4%

8.9%

2.2%

6.7%

4.4%

15.6%

33.3%

24.4%

M55-59

TORONTO2014

3.0%

3.0%

9.1%

0.0%

6.1%

15.2%

30.3%

33.3%

M55-59

TORONTO2015

2.4%

9.8%

4.9%

2.4%

2.4%

17.1%

26.8%

34.1%

M60-64

TORONTO2014

4.0%

0.0%

0.0%

4.0%

4.0%

16.0%

28.0%

44.0%

M60-64

TORONTO2015

10.7%

3.6%

0.0%

3.6%

0.0%

14.3%

39.3%

28.6%

M65-69

TORONTO2014

8.3%

8.3%

0.0%

8.3%

0.0%

16.7%

16.7%

41.7%

M65-69

TORONTO2015

0.0%

0.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

0.0%

60.0%

M70-74

TORONTO2014

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

M70-74

TORONTO2015

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

0.0%

I suspect that this won't change the prediction much. The difference in qualifiers is only 20 people and now that we are 8 races in with a large major in there, 20 qualifiers is not going to swing it too far either way.

I will likely make more automation improvements for the overall data so I will likely get to posting the next prediction early next week!