Morning Briefing: Britain on the edge of Brexit

As a new poll puts the Leave side ahead and with 100 days to go until the EU
referendum, here's what you need to know today

(This is an adapted version of the Morning Briefing e-mail - to get it straight to your inbox, sign up here)

Good morning.

Remain campaigners won’t be sitting comfortably this morning when they read the results of today’s ORB poll for the Telegraph, which finds that support for Leave is seven points ahead (52/45). The secret to their success is enthusiasm, as when ORB discounted people’s likelihood to vote, the campaigns were essentially tied, with Remain on 47% and Leave on 49%.

So with less than 100 days to go until referendum day, does this mean the Brexiters have it in the bag? The final outcome remains “in the balance” according to Sir Lynton Crosby, the election guru who delivered victory for David Cameron last year. “If as the election draws closer, Leave voters still do not believe their vote can affect the outcome, their engagement and motivation may tail off,” he writes in today's paper. “Poignantly, the challenge for both campaigns is the same: to raise the importance of the referendum outcome and demonstrate to their voters that there really is the potential for Leave to win.” This poll is the first in a series we'll be doing during the campaign seeking to track underlying mood of the nation on key issues around the referendum and the likelihood of people voting, with Sir :Lynton providing regular analysis throughout.

Both referendum campaigns will not be able to let up until polls close on June 23, as their get-out-the-vote operations will be crucial. Brexiters inspire greater excitement from their voters, with 79 per cent of those intending to back a “Brexit” saying they are certain to vote, while 72 per cent of Remain voters say the same. It may be little surprise that Brexiters are keener, as evidenced by the massive rallies Grassroots Out have been holding. Can Remainers get over 2,000 people to come to a hall in Kettering for the cause?

"This campaign has a long way to run, and despite what voters currently believe, the outcome really is in the balance."

Sir Lynton Crosby

Germany’s recent local elections offer a lesson for referendum campaigners, as the stridently anti-immigration AfD party thrived while Angela Merkel’s party received an electoral battering. The AfD played on voters’ concerns about immigration, and rode a wave of support from those who’ve previously been reluctant to turn out to vote, as I’ve written here. The new ORB poll shows that one third of undecided Britons (31%) say their “biggest hesitation” in backing the Remain campaign is the “potential for uncontrolled or increased immigration”. This is why Nigel Farage and fellow Brexiters are majoring on the issue, while David Cameron is scrambling to come up with a solid rebuttal. Given how closely run the referendum race is looking, winning the immigration debate could be decisive.

Watchdogs Want A Clean-Up

Two former parliamentary standards commissioners have backed calls for an overhaul of the committee that regulates the conduct of MPs. Sir Philip Mawer and John Lyon both warned that “lay” members of the panel should be allowed to vote on decisions in order to check the power of MPs in regulating themselves. In a written submission to the Commons standards committee, Sir Philip warned that its lay members were currently little more than “second class citizens”, fuelling criticism that MPs are “retaining the power of decision about their colleagues firmly in their own hands”.

Putin's Pulling Out

Vladimir Putin abruptly ordered the withdrawal of most Russian forces from Syria today in an unexpected and potentially significant moment in the five-year effort to end Syria's civil war. The Russian president made the shock announcement at a meeting of government minsters on Monday and said that his country's forces should begin leaving Syria as early as Tuesday. The decision caught the US and other Western countries off guard and came as negotiators from the Syrian regime and opposition forces gathered for the start of peace talks in Geneva.

Labour's Problem With Jews

Jeremy Corbyn faced criticism from his own MPs on Monday as he failed to sack a local Labour Party vice-chairman who has said Jews have “big noses” and “slaughter the oppressed”. The old tweets from Vicki Kirby resurfaced after it emerged she had been made vice chair of the Labour Party’s Working branch. "Labour does indeed have a problem with Jews," writes Tom Harris in today's paper. "It can acknowledge that problem’s existence, confront it and deal with it. Or it can shrug, mutter something about UN Security Council resolutions and continue to court the support of those on the far Left who are the source of the problem."

Merkel Keeps The Door Open

Angela Merkel has vowed to stick to her controversial migrant policy despite suffering heavy losses in state elections on Sunday. The German chancellor’s “open-door” refugee policy has been widely blamed for the damaging election results which saw Mrs Merkel’s Christian Democrat party (CDU) defeated in two states and just manage to cling on in a third.

Sensors In Your Bin?

Councils could place sensors in household rubbish bins which would alert GPs if pensioners fail to take their rubbish out for a fortnight, a Government backed report has found. Within a decade every bin could have a sensor, the forecast suggests as it sets out how everything from reporting missed rubbish collections to ordering parking permits could be digitised to save money for cash-strapped local councils.

Radio Times V DCMS

The editor of Radio Times has threatened the government with legal action to force ministers to re-open a public consultation on the future of the BBC, after it emerged that officials had failed to consider 6,000 submissions amassed by the magazine. John Whittingdale, the culture secretary, announced earlier this month that the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) had received 192,000 submissions to a review of the future size and scope of the BBC, ahead of the expiry of the corporation's Royal Charter, in December.