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Jared Wade: Pacers Are the 7th Least-Valuable NBA Team, But ThatDoesnít Mean What It Used to Mean

A lawyer who has been involved in the sale of NBA teams once told me, in no uncertain
terms, that he has no idea where Forbes gets its franchise valuations. He said that even
the lawyers on both sides of a sale, armed with troughs of detailed, finalized financial
numbers, struggle to agree on exactly what a franchise is worth on paper.

In short, it is incredibly difficult for anyone to put a precise value on an NBA team.

That said, these numbers from Forbes are the best available to the public. The estimates
are scrutinized, researched and considered carefully.

They must be read with at least a few grains of salt ó and we can probably presume
there are some gross inaccuracies ó but this list paints a very good picture of the
financial health of all the teams in the league.

When it comes to the Pacers, that picture isnít so bad. While Indiana is only ahead of
six other teams in terms of franchise value, you can see that their operating income
(roughly, profit margin) is not listed in red text. Compare that to virtually all six of the
lower-valued teams ó not to mention a few larger-market teams worth more.

Market size, terrible attendance and JailPacer Era hangover considered, this is a step
forward from a few years ago.

Remember, right before the lockout, the league (which was obviously drowning in
statements expressing its own self interest) said that 22 NBA teams were losing money
and that the league overall would lose a total of $300 million if the players didnít agree
to slash their salaries. That figure, said NBA head honcho David Stern, was actually an
improvement. During the 2009-10 season, the league says teams lost $370 million.
(The now-famous Nate Silver showed how cloudy the leagueís claims may have been
for what itís worth.)

Regardless of those difficult-to-calculate claims, there was additional evidence that the
Pacers were one of the teams that were facing dire financial straights. For the first
decade of its time in Conseco (now Bankers Life) Fieldhouse, the team says it lost
money in all but one season.

During his 12-year NBA career, Zach Randolph has made it abundantly clear on a number
of occasions that he's not scared of anybody on the basketball court. The 6-foot-9, 260-
pound Memphis Grizzlies power forward has gone toe-to-toe with some of the league's
biggest and baddest dudes over the years, including, most recently, Oklahoma City
Thunder center Kendrick Perkins; their November clash resulted in ejections, a $25,000
fine for Randolph and one of the season's great quotes: Z-Bo telling Memphis radio host
Chris Vernon, "I'm good with these hands, man. I'm a jackin' dude." (There's also the off
-court and past stuff, which only bolster Z-Bo's never-scared bona fides.)

The title is a bit misleading isnít it?

For his career, Al Jefferson only commits 2.8 fouls per game, so his trouble isnít that he
fouls too much; itís that he doesnít get fouled enough. Specifically, letís look at how
Jeffersonís lack of free throw attempts affects the team.

Perhaps Utahís most important player whenever heís on the floor, Jefferson deserves
credit for his consistent contributions. At this point in the season, heís posting 16.8 ppg,
9.8 rpg, 1.3 bpg, and has contributed about a steal per game ó all near his career
averages. For better or for worse, heís a huge part of the Jazz offense and defense.

Itís the odd free throw numbers that are alarming about Jeffersonís time on the floor.

[Editor's note: Jefferson's tendency to shoot jumpers and avoid contact while shooting
is well-documented. As a reminder of what Jefferson does well before we re-visit his
low free throw rate, let's check Hollinger's player card [Insider], with analysis from
before the season began:

Jefferson discovered the joys of passing out of double-teams and had
a career season as a result, unfathomably leading all centers in pure
point rating (yes, this really happened) with the help of a historically
low turnover ratio.

His ability to create shots without turning the ball over is truly
phenomenal. Jefferson had miscues on only 4.7 percent of his
possessions last season. Nobody in the history of the NBA has had a
usage rate this high and turnover ratio this low. Nobody.

Yes, there were some drawbacks to this approach. Jefferson took a
lot of midrange jumpers and half-hooks and rarely attacked the rim,
so he had one of the lowest free throw rates at his position. As a
result, his true shooting percentage was ordinary. But creating
league-average shooting with virtually no turnover risk is a great
bargain, and despite his penchant for ball-stopping it gave
Jefferson genuine offensive value.

As for defensive value, weíll get back to you on that. Jefferson
blocks shots and is a good rebounder, but primarily he seems
concerned with avoiding fouls that might take him off the court.
Only seven centers fouled less, and it wasnít because Jefferson
was in such exquisite defensive position that he didnít need to
gamble. The Jazz gave up 1.9 points per 100 possessions more
with him on the court last season, and that was his best mark in
the past three years; Synergy also rated him below the league
average.]

At 85.9%, heís a very good shooter from the charity stripe. But that percentage matters
less when you consider that Jefferson attempts fewer than three free throws per contest.

Jefferson leads the Jazz in shots attempted by far this season (512; Millsap is second
with 389). Per 48 minutes, only 11 players in the league shoot more often than Jefferson.
He attempts 15.1 shots per game and only shoots 2.9 free throws.

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Re: 1/26/2013 Game Thread #44: Pacers Vs. Jazz

Yep, Bulls definitely going down.

Looking at our last couple road losses: Orlando & Portland. On one hand, they don't strike me as unreasonable. On the other, they make tonight's game a prove - it game if we want to be taken seriously (IMO) as a team that's really an ECF challenger.

At some point, excuses be damned (even if valid). The level of team we aspire to finds ways to win tough games on the road. Let's see it.

Re: 1/26/2013 Game Thread #44: Pacers Vs. Jazz

Looking at our last couple road losses: Orlando & Portland. On one hand, they don't strike me as unreasonable. On the other, they make tonight's game a prove - it game if we want to be taken seriously (IMO) as a team that's really an ECF challenger.

At some point, excuses be damned (even if valid). The level of team we aspire to finds ways to win tough games on the road. Let's see it.

Wasn't Orlando a 4th game in 5 nights? I wonder what the league wide record for 4 in 5 nights is.

Re: 1/26/2013 Game Thread #44: Pacers Vs. Jazz

Wasn't Orlando a 4th game in 5 nights? I wonder what the league wide record for 4 in 5 nights is.

That's one of the reasons I said it didn't strike me as an unreasonable loss. But, at if you're in the thick of a playoff race, aspiring to top 4 seed and being a legit ECF contender, at some point you have to make the jump to wining tough games on the road in tough circumstances.

EDIT: So what I'm saying is - despite Utah being a solid team and tough at home - this is a relatively favorable road situation. We're rested. They aren't. It's not that this precise game is a must win. It's a chance to continue building the mental toughness & reputation with the type of win a legit upper echelon team gets.