2016 was the year of the dollar​2017 will not be

Summer Forex Forecast The USD

scroll down to see Q2 and Q1 forecasts

Dollar Index Prediction

Last quarter I raised the possibility that the correction lower could be over however the stated confirmation price never happened and the DXY has continued lower. The continued drop has forced a change to the wave count, from current levels I will be expecting a 3 wave bounce to fail below the 100 mark and the downward trend to continue possibly as low as 93. Remember I did say in January that this would not be the year of the dollar. The new prediction fits well with one more fed funds rise in june and then no moreduring 2017 but we will have to see how that plays out.

USDJPY Forex Prediction

Having forecast the USDJPY correctly in Quarter 1, when I called for a fall, and Quarter 2, when i suggested a rise, the forecast for the summer is more upside when the current short term pullback completes. Price seems to be moving in the direction of the forecast around 700pips per quarter implying that we may be around 117 by the end of the next quarter. It is harder to trade the USDJPY higher when the Dollar index is forecast to go lower, it implies that EURJPY higher would be a much better trade as the EURO is the reason the Dollar index is falling. I will still look for good opportunities to trade this pair in the shorter term

AUDUSD Forex Prediction

The AUDUSD moved exactly as predicted this quarter, following the wave 3 lower and the wave 4 higher, I am not changing the prediction as I will be looking for the pair to complete its move down to the resistance line at 0.72. This is likely to happen as the dollar index completes its 3 wave bounce towards 100. As we expect the dollar index to fail at this point it is likely the AUDSD will recover back into the range that has defined it for more than a year.

Quarter 2 Forecast April 2017

Dollar Index

The dollar may have completed a 3 wave pullback as predicted in the January compass. A failed breakout of the red head and shoulders is quite telling. To take a trade we need to see the dollar close above the orange line at 100.8 to increase confidence that the pullback is over.

USDJPY

The January forecast was pretty perfect, the pair has dropped 800 pips since the January forecast. I traded the pair twice during the quarter for good results.Quarter 2 we are looking for the larger bullish trend to resume in line with the Dollar forecast. Indeed the bottom may currently be at hand and a long trade close (perhaps the first in the 100Kproject)

AUDUSD

The topping pattern we have been trading since March 2015 continues to play out as expected, The wave E top has now been confirmed with a small 5 wave down and pullback, wave 3 could be quite profitable. As soon as we see dollar strength across the board this will be a good trade.

US Dollar Forecast January 2016

Dollar Index

The path highlighted last month has proved to be quite accurate, the dollar continues to trace out a 5 wave advance and is now in itsfinal wave 5. The top should take place in the highlighted box after which a pullback is likely. The size of that pullback is not yet clear.

USDJPY Lower in January

the comapass prediction for december was near perfect and a market top now appears to be in the works, the depth of the coming decline is not yet clear nor is a trigger for the trade however keep a check on the weekly trades towatch this opportunity develop

USDMXN

Still no clear direction for this pair. I will remain on the sidelines.

US Dollar Forecast December 2015

Dollar Index

This count suggest we are in a wave 4 pull back before begining the final push higher. A break of the redline would imply that wave 4 is complete and offer the opportunity to enter long. The final leg should get as high as 104-105.

USD/JPY

The dollar has staged a huge rally against the Yen and it may still have some way to go. The wave 3 might not be complete and we will have to watch closely. It is not all good news as this might meely be a pull back in the larger scale multi decade bear market. 115.40 is the 61.8% retracement of the June 2015 to June 2016 bear market, this is often a point of resistance. Clearance of this level would add weight to a long term bull market.The start of a new year often makes these things clear.

USD/MXN

the mexican peso has had a terrible time against the strong US dollar. No evidence that a top has been found yet but at these high levels I would probably not wwant to be long. Sidelines are often the safest lines in trading.

RetiredearlyFX is a trading name of the investment company Bagehotsway.We are not a regulated company but we only sell regulated products.We are not authorised to give investment advice.We believe all figures quoted to be accurate but past performance in no way guarantees future performanceTrading FX is high risk and not suitable for everyone.