- More than 16 million children could be undernourished in 2020 in sub-Saharan Africa in the double impact of the global crisis are not adequately addressed. These findings were released today at the annual general meeting of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) held in Maputo, Mozambique.

The report, by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) notes that the combined impact of low economic growth and decreased investments in agriculture could cause major increases in malnutrition in developing countries.

It stated while that many developing regions have experienced high economic growth in recent years, but with the onset of the food and financial crises, that robust growth has tapered off.

"The current crises are likely to have strong and long-lasting effects on emerging economies and the people most in need," said Joachim von Braun, director general of IFPRI. "The unfolding global financial crisis and economic slowdown have eased some pressure on food prices, but they also significantly reduce the income-earning opportunities for poor people. Even before the world food crisis, the poorest of the poor were struggling to survive. Poor people spend 50 to 70 percent of their income on food and have little capacity to adapt as prices rise and wages for unskilled labor fail to adjust accordingly. The financial crunch lowers the real wages of poor workers, and leads to rising unemployment," he said, adding that the financial crunch has also constrained the availability of capital at a time when greater investment in agriculture is urgently needed.

IFPRI has developed projections to track changes in the production and consumption of major food commodities between 2005 and 2020, saying if there is a world recession that reduces economic growth between two to three percent, depending on the region, this would also mean agricultural investment and productivity would also decline, in line with the reduced economic growth.

Compared to a baseline scenario in which high economic growth continues and productivity and investments in agriculture are maintained, IFPRI finds that the cumulative effect of reduced growth, investment, and productivity would lead to increases in the prices of basic staples.

The report points that by 2020, rice prices would rise by 13 percent, wheat by 15 percent, and maize by 27 percent, compared to the baseline scenario, thereby meaning more malnourished children.

"When economic growth declines, investment in agriculture is typically cut back and that hurts production in the long-run," said Mark Rosegrant, director of Environment and Production Technology at IFPRI. "However, if developing countries and investors can maintain agricultural productivity and investments under a recession, these dire consequences can be avoided. We need more public spending in R&D, irrigation, and productive services in developing country agriculture, now."

In an alternative scenario, the research finds that if economic growth is reduced, but investment in agriculture and productivity are maintained, grain would be much more affordable, per capita calorie consumption would be much higher, and there would be significantly fewer malnourished children.

He said the IFPRI research recommends three priorities for action, being promoting pro-poor agricultural growth, reducing market volatility, and expanding social safety nets and child nutrition programmes.

"Ultimately, our measure of success should not be defined by the price of food, but by the provision of adequate healthy food for all," he said.

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