North American meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)'s Hurricane Research Division have recently
improved the success rate in their forecasting of where hurricanes are
likely to hit land by an estimated 15 to 30%. This increase in accuracy
is due to the use of instruments called GPS-dropwindsondes, which can
probe the atmosphere surrounding a hurricane while it is still out at
sea. The atmospheric characteristics of hurricanes over land are well
understood because investigation is possible with weather balloons
containing sophisticated meteorological instruments. When hurricanes are
out of reach of balloons, gathering information is decidedly more
difficult. Little is known of the weather conditions that guide
hurricanes towards land.

An accurate estimation of where a hurricane will strike is essential in
order to reduce loss of life and property. Hurricane Andrew, the most
costly hurricane in U.S. history, killed 15 people and caused damage of
$35 billion, in today's dollars, in 1992. However, the unnamed :
Category 4 2 hurricane which struck southeast Florida in 1926 and killed
243 people would have caused an estimated $77 billion if it had struck
today. The reason for this is the explosion in population growth and
development along the south-east coast of the U.S. during the last half
century.

Hurricanes occur in cycles every few decades, the last intense period
in the U.S. being from 1940 to 1969. 'Camille', a Category 5 hurricane
of such catastrophic force that it caused over a billion and a half
dollars worth of damage at the time and killed 256 people, struck the
coast of the Gulf of Mexico in 1969 with winds over 320 km/h. Yet, for
the last quarter century, hurricane activity has been relatively mild.
Scientists do not know the precise reason for the cycles of hurricane
activity, but they could be caused by a phenomenon called the 'Atlantic
Conveyor'. This is the name given to the gigantic current of water that
flows cold from the top of the globe slowly along the Atlantic ocean
floor to Antarctica and resurfaces decades later before flowing back
north, absorbing heat as it crosses the equator. Since hurricanes derive
their energy from the heat of warm water, it is thought that an
increase in the speed of the' Conveyor', as it pulls warm water to the
north, is an indicator of intensifying hurricane activity.

The use of GPS-dropwindsondes began in 1997. Small sensing devices
dropped from planes at very high altitudes and over a wide area, they
are far more revealing than previously used sensors. Because they weigh
only 0.4 kilograms, they are able to stay aloft for longer periods and
broadcast more data to the ground. Each sonde carries its own global
positioning satellite receiver. The GPS signals received are used to
calculate the direction and speed of wind, and data on temperature,
humidity, and barometric pressure at half second intervals all the way
down to the ocean surface.

Dropwindsonde information is fed into a special meteorological computer
in Maryland which generates a global computer model of wind patterns.
Data analysts have discovered a greater variability in the winds at sea
level than previously believed, but many forecasting problems are beyond
a solution, at least for the time being. For instance, it is not yet
known why hurricanes can suddenly change in intensity; current computer
models often fail to predict whether a hurricane will reach land or else
cannot pinpoint where a strike will take place.

One surprising result of a recent computer simulation was the
destruction of a large part of downtown New York. Hurricane researchers
believe that the city is more likely than Miami to suffer a direct hit
in the near future. Also, certain geographical features of the coastline
near New York make it conceivable that a wall of water called a storm
surge pushed ashore by hurricane winds would cause a devastating
flooding of Manhattan. A storm surge was responsible for the more than
8000 deaths caused by the hurricane that destroyed the city of Galveston
in 1900.

1 the custom of naming hurricanes began in the early 1950s

2 hurricanes are categorised according to their wind speed from Category 1 (least intense) to Category 5 (most intense)

Write your answers in boxes 1 - 4 on your Answer Sheet. The first one has been done for you as an example.

Example: What do the letters NOAA stand for?

Q1. Which instruments have recently increased the success rate of U.S. hurricane forecasts?
Q2. What reason is given for the lack of knowledge of hurricanes at sea?
Q3. Why was the hurricane which struck in 1926 not given a name?
Q4. What is the name of the strongest hurricane mentioned in the article?

You are advised to spend about 8 minutes on Questions 5-11.

Look at the table below. According to Reading Passage 1, to whom or what do the phrases on the right refer?
Write your answers in boxes 5 -11 on your Answer Sheet. The first one has been done for you as an example.
Note that you must give your answer IN NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS.

Q5 ...........................................
become stronger every few decades.
Q6 ........................................... energises all hurricanes.
Q7 ...........................................
is a huge current of water flowing from
north to south.
Q8 ...........................................
could not stay in the air for a long time.
Q9 ...........................................
know more about surface winds than they knew
before.
Q10 ......................................... recently predicted a catastrophe for the city
of New York.
Q11
......................................... is a huge wave of water blown on land by a hurricane.

Questions 12 -15
You are advised to spend about 7 minutes on Questions 12-15.
Refer to Reading Passage 25, and decide which of the answers best completes the following sentences.

Write your answers in boxes 12 -15 on your Answer Sheet. The first one has been done for you as an example.

Example: The main point of the passage is to give information about:
a) previous U.S. hurricanes
b) future U.S. hurricanes
c) forecasting hurricane activity

d) why hurricanes change in intensity

Q12. The intensity of U.S. hurricanes:
a) has increased by 15 to 30% recently

b) depends on the GPS-dropwindsondes
c) was greater from 1940 to 1969 than at any previous time
d) can be more accurately measured by satellite assistance

Q13. The Category 4 hurricane which hit Florida in 1926:
a) w as the most catastrophic to hit the U. S. this century
b) caused $77 billion worth of damage
c) caused an explosion in population growth
d) none of the above

Q14. Hurricane'Camille':
a) caused $1.5 billion dollars damage in today's money
b)
was the worst U.S. storm this century in terms of life lost
c) was named in the 1950s
d) was not as intense as the hurricane of 1926

Q15. The writer of the passage probably believes that:
a) accurate tracking of hurricanes might be possible in the future
b) storm surges only occur within computer simulations
c) computer predictions are unreliable
d) the worst hurricanes occur in the U.S.

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