4.07.2011

Breaking news for all those who depend on "The Obsidium Shuffle" for your income. MMO-Champion is reporting that Cataclysm uncommon (green-quality) gems will be be changed in Patch 4.1 from a vendor value of 9 gold each all the way down to 75 silver. (See "Patch 4.1 PTR Notes - April 8th Update" from MMO-Champion.)

What this means is that if you are sitting on a stockpile of uncommon Cataclysm gems now is the time to cut and vendor many if not all of them. My recommendation of what to do to prepare this change and not lose your shirt is after the jump.

My Recommendations

The following is what I recommend you do with your current stock before these changes do into effect. I am breaking it down gem by gem as each has its own considerations to think about.

Alicite - Cut and vendor them all now.

Alicites have been constant under performers. They are not part of the jewelcrafting dailies. They will never be worth anything.

One possible other use for these after the vendor price drop would be making Alicite Pendants for disenchant and to sell any blue procs. Only do this is the price for Hypnotic Dust hasn't also crashed.

Hessonite - Cut and vendor all of them now.

As with Alicite these aren't part of the jewelcrafting dailies. Even if you make good money off Ember Topaz cuts I'd still cut and vendor them unless Ember Topaz are going for a ridiculous price.

The only possible other use for these after the vendor price drop would be making and disenchant Hessonite Bands if the price for Hypnotic Dust hasn't also crashed.

Jasper - Cut and vendor all of them just before the price change patch.

These are used for the jewelcrafting daily. Before the change they should be stockpiled and sold when the jewelcrafting daily is Jasper. I'd only keep max of (3) 20-stacks of these on hand for the daily.

After the change these can be sold on jewelcrafting daily days but I expect the price to be abysmal (under 2g) for a long time to come. They will most likely be used to craft Jasper Rings to disenchant and proc blue rings to sell.

Nightstone - Cut and vendor all of them just before the price change patch.

Along with Jasper these are used for the jewelcrafting daily. Before the change they should be stockpiled and sold when the jewelcrafting daily is Nightstone. I'd only keep max of (3) 20 stacks of these on hand for the daily.

One possible other use for these after the vendor price drop would be making Nightstone Chokers for disenchant and to sell any blue procs. Only do this is the price for Hypnotic Dust hasn't also crashed.

Zephyrite - Cut and vendor all of them just before the price change patch.

These are the final gem used for the jewelcrafting daily. Before the change they should be stockpiled and sold when the jewelcrafting daily is Zephyrite. I'd only keep max of (3) 20-stacks of these on hand for the daily.

After the change these will have zero real use beyond Fire Prisms and Shadowspirit Diamond transmutes.

Carnelian - Cut and vendor the majority of your stock before the price change patch.

After the price change patch these will most likely be crafted into Carnelian Spikes for disenchanting into Greater Celestial Essence if the prices for enchanting materials hasn't crashed along with the gem market.

Aftermath?
Remember hundreds of jewelcrafters on your server will be caught unaware by this change and the market will be absolutely flooded with uncommon Cataclysm gems. Prices on anything that was associated with uncommon Cataclysm gems will plummet for the foreseeable future.

"The Obsidim Shuffle" as we've come to affectionately call it will never be profitable again. Ore prices will plummet even lower than they are now. If you make money mining, do it before the patch.

If you have stockpiles of Obsidium Ore or Elementium Ore sell it before these changes take place. The "price floor"of these ores (the lowest amount you could get per 20 stack by simply prospecting, cutting and vendoring everything) are dropping by almost 92%.

The price floor of Obsidum Ore is going from 54 gold per 20 stack to a measly 4 gold 50 silver per 20 stack.

The Future
I expect that after the panic and sell off of all the uncommon Cataclysm gems the task of prospecting Obsidum Ore and Elementium Ore will become simply a chore jewelcrafters will have to endure to get their gems for the jewelcrafting daily.

The value of Rare gems will most likley drop to their vendor value (3 gold 50 silver per cut gem) as the ability to transmute dirt-cheap uncommons into rares will be the way most are obtained.

Unfortunately for us the happy and fat days are numbered for The Obdisum Shuffle. It's a shame too. It has been my favorite source of income for the last few months.

Further Reading
I'm not the first blog to break this story. We are all talking about it. Below is a list of current blog posts on the subject from around the gold-making community. I will update the bottom of this post if more come in.

The fact that I only have to cut and vendor less than (2) 20 stacks of gems for this change makes me believe even more that in the right situation just-in-time beats stockpiling hands-down. (Sorry all you stockpilers. I'm sure JIT will come back to bite me someday. Today is not that day.)

UPDATE 2:
Is occurred to me that not only will cutting and vendoring be the best way to get rid of uncommon Cataclysm gems but also (in many cases) the best way to get rid of large stockpiles Obsidium and Elementium Ore.

Prospecting, cutting and vendoring the gems from this these ores before the vendor prices change will net you the most value per ore if the ore prices on your server are below 54 gold/stack.

I hereby dub patch 4.1 "GEMMAGEDDON"!!

UPDATE 3:
As I'm prospecting the last of my stock I can't help but hold on to my Carnelian. My gut keeps telling me that Inferno Rubies will be part of an epic red gem recipe if implemented. If we get no more information (like data-mined alchemy transmute recipes)

I'll have to think long and hard about now many carnelians to hold over vs. cutting and getting the 9g per to then re-buy people's dirt-cheap Carnelians. Exciting times!

5 comments
:

I'm considering purchasing a around 50 or so stacks of Elementium Ore from the AH. Right now, they are 1g75-80s each, which is right around 35-37 gold per stack. Even if I vendored every gem I got, I would come out slightly ahead.

The statement that "'The Obsidim Shuffle' as we've come to affectionately call it will never be profitable again" strikes me as complete nonsense. It's true that the shuffle in its exact form (i.e. everyone buys a bunch of ore to prospect and cuts/vendors the greens) will be eliminated. But does no one remember the Saronite Shuffle? Saronite ore didn't have a meaningful "floor" like Obsidium does now, and I made quite a few coppers from that routine.

It's certianly true that IF you happened to get caught by surprise at the patch with a bunch of green gems or ore that you bought for 40g or whatever, you'd be hosed. But if you read these blogs, you won't. I totally agree with the OP's advice to liquidate everything before the patch. But once the patch hits and the big wave of changes happens, I'm sure that there will be plenty of demand for enchanting mats and transmuted gems to make a very nice profit. There are too many uses for the outputs of the ores for the shuffle to become unprofitable.

Now...it's true that miners are screwed. But quite simply mining != the obsidium shuffle so all the "shuffle is doooooomed" posts are, IMO, just wrong.

I plan to do the shuffle even after the change its a big hit to the players that just cut and vendor. But there are a ton of ways to get rid of the gems and still make a huge profit. As flux linked my post about it up top I would check into that. Also tomorrows post kinda goes along with it.

Don't mean to advertise flux sorry Just helping players out!!

by the way i like the "pig pile" you have made makes this fun and easier to find all the articles.