Retail banking in Netherlands: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with key markets across the world losing 20-50% of their value for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with consensus global GDP growth currently at 2.6% for 2020, and many experts predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

A similar trend is expected in the Netherlands. According to the IMF, the Dutch economy will shrink by 7.5% in 2020, with the unemployment rate set to hit 6.5%. The Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis - an independent research institute under the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy - estimates that the pandemic will cause a 7.7% decline in the countrys GDP, which is more severe than the 2008-09 global financial crisis. This disruption will impact the countrys banking industry.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the economy and the retail banking industry in the Netherlands. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot provides a detailed comparison between pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total mortgage, consumer, credit card loan balances as well as deposit balances in terms of value and growth rates. It also offers information on measures taken by the government to combat Coronavirus.

Scope

- The Netherlands is expected to enter into a recession in H1 2020 as COVID-19 wallops the Dutch economy. This will have a direct impact on the countrys banking sector.- Due to the ongoing disruptions to economic activity and resulting uncertainty, we expect the sector to contract in the short term. Yet this compares favorably to most other European countries such as France, Italy, and Spain.- The main reasons for this are the Netherlands low exposure to risk assets and the governments comparatively healthy finances, which provide it with ample fiscal ammunition to alleviate some of the economic impacts of COVID-19.- Overall this will contribute to a relatively rapid recovery of the mortgage and consumer loans sectors, which supports our expectation of a V-shaped recession.

Reasons to Buy

- Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Dutch retail lending and deposit industry.- Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Dutch retail lending and deposit industry.- Receive a comprehensive insight into the total consumer loans in the Netherlands, including mortgages, personal and credit card loans as well as retail deposits balances.