Payroll growth by the second half of 2010?

The job outlook is painted by two numbers of varying precision and usefulness. The unemployment rate gets most of the attention because it boils down a complex picture to a single number — but it is somewhat simplistic as a result. Economists tend to put more credence in the payroll job count — how many people are drawing regular paychecks.

U.S. payrolls have been shrinking for two years but in a recent interview, layoff expert John Challenger said the signs suggest that payrolls will start growing by the end of the year. How strongly is yet to be seen, but with 8.4 million jobs lost since December 2007, the rebound couldn’t come too soon. Challenger is interviewed here on Yahoo Finance: