Politics Counts: Measuring Obama-Romney Overlap

Among the many bits of conventional wisdom in presidential politics is the abiding belief that there are two stages in running for the country’s top job. There is the primary stage, where a candidate appeals to the party base to build enthusiasm with core voters. And there is the general election stage, where one pivots to capture moderate centrist voters.

A few months and several contests into the 2012 primary calendar former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be challenging that idea. When you look at Mr. Romney’s votes and support, he is largely bypassing that first stage – or at least trying to bypass it – and appealing to general election voters during the nomination fight.

With the Republican Party more divided than usual, some clear fault lines have emerged in the GOP electorate around the current field of candidates. Social conservatives and less-wealthy voters have tended to side with either former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Other Republican primary voters have tended to side with Mr. Romney.

The result? Mr. Romney’s electoral “footprint” in some primary states bears a striking resemblance to that of President Barack Obama in 2008’s general election – particularly in swing states like Ohio and Florida.

The question is what that ultimately means for Mr. Romney’s chances in the fall.

Click on the graphic for a larger view.

In Florida, the similar patterns are obvious. Mr. Obama won 15 counties in the state in 2008, Mr. Romney carried 12 of them in January’s Republican primary in the state, including the most densely populated counties around Miami, Orlando and Tampa. Those counties gave Mr. Romney the win in January and Mr. Obama his win in 2008.

Tuesday’s results from Ohio are arguably even more remarkable. Mr. Romney won 12 of the 22 counties Mr. Obama carried in 2008 but again, most critically, the counties with the most population – Hamilton, Franklin and Cuyahoga (the homes of Cincinnati, Columbus and Cleveland respectively). All three are categorized as big city Industrial Metropolises in Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic breakdown of counties. They appear in gray on the map below and without big wins in them Mr. Romney would not have won the state.

Those counties gave him a margin of 36,000 votes in Ohio, where he won by only 10,000 votes overall. And depending on how you look at it that could be either very good news for Mr. Romney in November or conversely very good news for Mr. Obama.

You could argue that Mr. Romney’s strength among voters in Mr. Obama’s strongholds will pay big dividends in the fall. After all, if Mr. Romney can make the Obama team fight hard to defend their turf he has them on defense.

Furthermore, a lot of those counties Mr. Obama won are the swing-voting wealthy suburban counties where elections are won or lost – counties Patchwork Nation calls the Monied Burbs. If Mr. Romney takes enough of the vote there, logic suggests he could be in good shape to win in the general election.

But it’s hard to gauge just what the primary and caucus votes thus far actually mean. Just because Mr. Romney is winning in the Burbs against Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich doesn’t mean he will automatically do better there against Mr. Obama, who did very well in the Burbs in 2008. And the primary results thus far certainly don’t mean Mr. Romney will be able to compete with Mr. Obama in the big city Industrial Metros, which tend to go very heavily Democratic in the general election. Mr. Obama carried those counties by 37 percentage points in 2008.

Meanwhile, some conservative Republicans are concerned that Mr. Romney’s electoral footprint is detrimental to his chances because it sits so squarely on Mr. Obama’s turf. The Romney camp isn’t doing enough to fire up the base, this argument goes, and Republican voters in November may decide to simply stay home rather than vote. In 2004, then-President George W. Bush won Ohio by driving up the vote from those heavily Republican areas – primarily the counties in red (Service Worker Centers) and light green (Emptying Nests) in the map above.

Those are precisely the kinds of counties where Mr. Romney has struggled – in Ohio and elsewhere. But would those voters, many of whom say they despise Mr. Obama, really not vote for Mr. Romney or stay home on Election Day? That remains to be seen.

More important, whether Mr. Romney’s constituency is good or bad for him, it’s not likely going to change. The Romney-Obama turf battle is not a sudden development and it extends to other areas. Patchwork Nation has noted its existence for months, for instance, in fund-raising.

It’s not even clear how much of the current Romney “strategy” is simply being dictated by circumstances – some of it is probably being driven by the circumstances within the divided party.

But should Mr. Romney win the nomination, his approach will be tested in the fall and the former Massachusetts governor may be hailed as the man who broke the mold or went too far off the script.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.