Oil prices rebound to end modestly higher amid signs of U.S. demand

JennyW. Hsu

Crude-oil futures settled firmly higher Thursday, bouncing back after slumping a day earlier on reports of a surprise buildup in U.S. inventories.

Traders and analysts said a strong report on U.S. gross domestic product and a larger-than-expected drawdown of natural-gas supplies helped to revive sentiment that domestic appetite for crude products may be able to sop up supplies in tandem with an agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to curb global production.

Futures climbed as the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday that natural gas inventories declined by 209 billion cubic feet during the week ended Dec. 16 — more than double the average for this time of year and ahead of The Wall Street Journal’s estimate of 203 bcf.

A reduction in natural-gas inventories is bullish for crude futures because it suggests that appetite for energy products remains healthy.

West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in February
US:CLG7
picked up 46 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $52.95 a barrel. Meanwhile, February Brent crude
UK:LCOG7
on London’s ICE Futures exchange added 59 cents, or 1.1%, to close at $55.05 a barrel.

The natural-gas drawdown helps to calm some consternation over growing inventories from Wednesday’s surprise buildup, when EIA reported U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 16, upending market expectations for a decrease.

A cold snap in the U.S. has fueled appetite for natural gas, which is used for heating homes and offices.

Natural-gas futures for January delivery
US:NGF17
were seeing muted action, despite the bullish EIA report, ending the session 0.4 cent lower, or 0.1%, to settle at $3.5380 per million British thermal units, little-changed on the day. However, the move comes after the contract saw the best daily gain in nearly a year.

“The markets are realizing that it is a peak demand period [for natural gas] and that with cold weather that we see to go through storage at a faster pace than we anticipate and that in my mind is very, very bullish sign for crude,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The Price Futures Group.

Upbeat economic reports also added to the view that demand was on an uptrend.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department said the economy expanded at a seasonally adjusted 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter, above the government’s prior estimate of 3.2%, due to upward revisions in consumer spending and business investment. That represents the best pace of growth in two years.

“Today, I think the revised GDP figures point to continuing increases in demand in 2017,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

A slightly weaker dollar, which has retreated somewhat off 14-year highs, also helped crude prices. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index
DXY, -0.11%
a gauge of the buck against six rival currencies, was near break-even levels at 103.03 in recent trade. As oil trading is conducted in dollars, a weaker dollar can translate into cheaper oil for buyers using other currencies. Still the dollar index is hovering near a 14-year high is likely to prove a headwind for the commodity in the future absent other fundamental factors, like supply and demand.

Oil prices were under pressure earlier Thursday after Libya’s National Oil Co. said long-closed pipelines had reopened in the country’s west. The new production, if sustained, could supply 270,000 barrels a day of crude in the next three months.

Libya’s announcement comes as the world remains awash with surplus oil. Last month, OPEC members and other major producers agreed to trim output by around 2 million barrels a day, or nearly 2% of global production.

Traders will be watching to see whether producers will underreport production, a behavior that surfaced in past attempts to rein in global output.

“We see risk that at least some of the market’s bullish sentiment will dissipate over time in the absence of confirmation that compliance is strong and the market has actually shifted to a deficit,” said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst.

Elsewhere on Nymex, reformulated gasoline blendstock for January
US:RBF7
the benchmark gasoline contract, closed less than 0.1% lower, or 0.2 cent at $1.6040 a gallon. Meanwhile, January heating oil
US:HOF7
gained about 2 cents, or 1.3%, to finish at $1.6608 a gallon.

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