ALLIGATORS IN A HELICOPTER

Friday, March 26, 2010

Weekend Box Office #178

I had a meeting yesterday at a (very small) production company, to pitch a take on a horror movie they want to shoot this summer. Not sure how it went, while it would probably be a rushed write for not much money.

But it would be a movie. So we'll see. They are also looking at a low-budget thriller of mine.

Meanwhile, there are new movies in wide release this weekend:

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (4055 theaters). Yet another 3D movie; there still aren't enough screens for all these 3D movies, and it's just going to get worse because everyone is making 3D movies now. Pretty soon people are going to get tired of paying the surcharge. This one doesn't look like it has huge adult crossover potential, but reviews have been good, so call it $46.2 million for the weekend.

HOT TUB TIME MACHINE (2754 theaters). Finally something I want to see: it has gotten good reviews, and apparently happily-embraces its R-ratedness. Call it $20.2 million for the weekend.

******

Last weekend, DIARY OF A WIMPY KID did a solid $22.1 million. THE BOUNTY HUNTER did a pretty-good $20.7 million. REPO MEN stumbled to only $6.1 million.

Friday, March 12, 2010

Weekend Box Office #176

I actually won the Oscar pool I was in, even though I changed my Best Original Screenplay guess to Tarantino at the last minute and got both screenplay guesses wrong. Irony.

Can't believe Alice in Wonderland did $116 million last weekend, despite largely unimpressed reviews. Look for it to drop this weekend, but still come in first easily.

Opening wide this weekend:

GREEN ZONE (3003 theaters). Good director, good cast, but they haven't done a very good job convincing me to rush out and see it. Figure $17.7 million for the weekend.

SHE'S OUT OF MY LEAGUE (2956 theaters). They are advertising this a lot, and it's nice to see there's still a place for R-rated comedies, but the lack of names in the cast is going to hurt it. Figure $6.4 million.

REMEMBER ME (2212 theaters). The presence of Robert Pattinson will help a lot, but it's not really clear what the hook is. $9.6 million.

OUR FAMILY WEDDING (1605 theaters). Too low-profile to make much impact. $3.9 million.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Oscars

A few thoughts on the major awards:

The best supporting awards are locks -- Mo'Nique and Christopher Waltz. Both deserving.

Best Actor will go to Jeff Bridges in a walk.

Best Actress is really up in the air. They could give it to Meryl -- she's been nominated a zillion times, but hasn't won in 28 years, and was great as Julia Child. They could give it to Sandra Bullock, though it feels like just being nominated is the prize for her. They could easily give it to Carey Mulligan or Gabourey Sidibe, but both are young, and it's unclear if they were just acting or being themselves. My pick is Meryl, though it might be Sandy.

Best Director will be Kathryn Bigelow, because it's time, and it's a great movie.

Best Picture could go either way, to Avatar or Hurt Locker, with Inglourious Basterds having a tiny shot at sneaking in. The last time a movie won for Best Picture without being nominated for Best Screenplay was Titanic... But I'm going to say Hurt Locker.

Best Song will be the Crazy Heart song, and hopefully the interpretive dance number won't be horrible.

Best Adapted Screenplay goes to Up In The Air, easily.

Best Original Screenplay is between Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds. Could go either way, though I read Hurt Locker (after seeing the movie ) and was impressed about how much was on the page. Let's pick Hurt Locker in a Harvey backlash.

Friday, March 05, 2010

Weekend Box Office #175

Oscar weekend. Good time to catch up on the nominees, because honestly the new stuff is a little underwhelming.

ALICE IN WONDERLAND (3728 theaters). Early word on this is not great, while it was shot in 2D and then turned into 3D, which isn't the best way to do 3D. Tim Burton just isn't that interesting to me as a director any more. Still, it'll make money this weekend -- but not as much as if it was actually really good, and look for the big drop-off next weekend. Let's call it $87.7 million for the weekend.

BROOKLYN'S FINEST (1936 theaters). This hasn't been very well-reviewed either, the title is generic, and it seems like we've seen it before. $7.8 million for the weekend.