"When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe." … Frederic Bastiat

Evil talks about tolerance only when it’s weak. When it gains the upper hand, its vanity always requires the destruction of the good and the innocent, because the example of good and innocent lives is an ongoing witness against it. So it always has been. So it always will be. And America has no special immunity to becoming an enemy of its own founding beliefs about human freedom, human dignity, the limited power of the state, and the sovereignty of God. – Archbishop Chaput

Trader Dan's Work is NOW AVAILABLE AT WWW.TRADERDAN.NET

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

For this Year's Christmas List

It's really too bad that we all are just now learning about this. All I can say is; "Santa - PLEASE, PLEASE, remember me because I have been really good".This is the Ultimate Chocolate Lover's Dream come true - a printer that prints chocolate candies!

Also, to my TraderDan.com readers - over the weekend we made the transition at the site to a dedicated server. Apparently there are still some issues with the move that are causing problems for some of you wishing to log in and read the commentary and analysis that I am posting there.If you are a TraderDan.com member and are having problem logging in, please let me know here and I will forward your email onto the site administrator for help.I apologize for this inconvenience and assure you we are doing our best to get it cleaned up as quickly as possible.

I am being told that it has something to do with what they term, "Propagation". The original server for the site had an IP address that is now different from the new IP address for the site at the dedicated server. That means when someone tries to log in and the ISP has not updated the IP address, they are directed to the old site which is not there. My guys are saying that the ISP's usually update their information fairly quickly but some are slower than others. Chances are you have an ISP that has not yet updated. It should occur relatively soon.Probably the reason you can access the site from the smart phone with the wifi disabled is because network is run by a different ISP and they have updated the new IP address for the site.Thanks for being patient..

they did give me a proxy site that you can use to get onto the new server however.type in www.proxydada.com and inside the white box that comes up, type in www.traderdan.com.that will take you to the site and you can then log in using your username and password.

Best wishes to you.. I have posted quite a bit of stuff the last couple of days over there so you will want to log on and check it out my friend.Dan

Premier Li Keqiang’s government approved the projects as part of a broader 400-venture, 10 trillion yuan plan to run from late 2014 through 2016, said people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the decision wasn’t public.

The move illustrates concern among officials that China’s planned shift to a domestic-consumption driven economy has yet to produce enough growth momentum...(cont.)

Nice catch there peckerwood.Sounds significant but not sure how much but we'll know fairly quickly if it's a game changing type of thing as far as overall price discovery goes.

What it tells me is that the paper gold market isn't going away anytime soon as some have anticipated and predicted.If China is also going to allow GLD-like ETF's in their markets (besides these new CME contracts) the entire paper PM dynamic stays in play a long time given the demand for phyz gold or gold trading instruments in Asia.In one sense China is just starting out as a stock market behemoth and the Chinese population probably has a lot of faith and confidence in their markets and the Chinese govt. as far as China's debt load and sustainability whereas the situation in the US seems completely opposite.There is no trust and there's lots of debt and mistrust etc.

Watch gold this week : it might break (at last!) through the downwards channel on the weekly time scale (resistance 1220). 1220, maybe a good spot to short with a close stop loss if you think gold is going back to the abyss after this small rallye. But I'll cut my short position should we break through 1230.Bollinger bands are converging on the weekly time scale, and if we get back into a more neutral stance short-term, prices might as well go meet the upper bollinger band, near 1260.

Copper : the andrew's pitchfork is leading the trend beautifully on the daily time scale, we'be been hitting 3 times the area of the mlh inf.I'm looking for a reversal of the CDur or some divergences on the daily / 4h time units to buy copper, though I have little hope to be able to monitor the 4h time unit given my current job :)

Silver : it's also fantastic to see how silver collapsed in one day to bounce violently and precisely on the long term support given by linking historical bottoms on the monthly time scale near 14 $. The resistance is still near 18 $ on my chart, upper resistance of the downwards channel I traced on my charts. There again, I'm waiting to see who's going to win.

EUR USD.I'm considering a bounce if we hit 1.17-1.18 this week. But I think the real support to be tested sometime this quarter is 1.1650, the bottom of end 2005 you can see on the monthly time unit. If we can't bounce on 1.16 this quarter, my long term target (sometime in 2015) is now 1 euro for 1 dollar.

Hey good luck with the gold short, but not too much so, haha. What's your target... near 1200?

As I wrote yesterday (elsewhere), a brief correction in gold was expected (it's minuette wave b down and b-wave targets are notoriously difficult to price). So I suppose someone nimble can trade it down, or use it to look for another long entry pt for a week(s)-long trade. A minor turn window is seen later this week so we'll see whether or not the intermediate bullish trend revives afterwards. The Gann angle line from the 2012 high now at $1230 remains a critical upside pivot with strength above needed to confirm a push higher to 1250-1260+.

Alternatively, gold could be in another tightening consolidation phase with a sequence of higher lows and lower highs inbetween 1171-1230.There are no certainties in this uncertain market. Risk mgmt is key.

My long gold stop loss is moved up to 1171, which is my breakeven/entry point and the .618 retracement of the mid-Nov to mid-Dec advance. I still prefer longs above 1171 but a close below Friday's low @1167 would make me bearish, while a close above 1230 would be bullish toward 1250-60+. I still expect to become bearish and short gold later for a lengthy drop, from a higher level than it is now.

My bogey of $49 oil has come and gone, the point where I would get serious about determining how I might play a recovery. XOP is an etf of oil and gas E&P companies, currently down 48% from it's high. XLE would be the safer choice, with a decent dividend while you wait. Both would avoid the problems inherent in commodity and leveraged funds.

With speculation like this below it's no wonder the USD didn't pause after taking 92 out or that the EURUSD is about to hit 117.If this isn't (in)direct monetization of new and old debt then I don't know what is. It's the new normal and it's out of necessity and will go on for many years to come.~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~

~Goldman Puts Europe's Upcoming QE In Perspective: The ECB Will Monetize Five Times All Net Issuance~

01/07/2015 - 09:43

"Should the ECB announce EUR500bn in government bond purchases to be implemented over a one-year period, as our European Economics team expects, this programme would compare in size to the average monthly purchases of USTs by the Fed during QE3, but it would be significantly larger than the average monthly Fed purchases since the beginning of the global financial crisis. ... The ECB's stock of eligible Euro area government bonds is EUR7trn (by comparison, the stock of US government securities is about $12trn) and we estimate 2015 net government bond issuance to be around EUR90bn and gross issuance to stand at around EUR800bn (see Macro Rates Monitor, December 19, 2014). The ECB would, hence, buy about 62% of gross issuance of long-term bonds in the Euro area countries and more than five times as much as the net issuance." (cont.)

I feel that after this and from now on, anyone in France who choses that his life is more important than his freedom of speech is about to lose the latter. I'm curious to see if anyone will volunteer to replace Charlie Hebdo's journalists.It takes real courage to face death to defend one's ideal of freedom of speech. But as one of your presidents said : "He who sacrifices freedom for security deserves neither. People willing to trade their freedom for temporary security deserve neither and will lose both."

Anyway...very dark day indeed. Cabu, Wolinkski, those were all great graphic writers and humorists. The loss is huge.

Hubert, a horrible day for your native country. Sad. As for the Euro, this, on the monthly charts is the 5th reaction down to the 1.20 area in the last 10 years! If we can not hold in here, a total meltdown may be in the cards. Parity would seem to be a lead pipe cinch, but what do I know?

All the douchebags locked into places like ZH, TFMR, Silverdoctors, and Dollarcollapse should take careful note. Instead they'll be more likely to toss Armstrong onto the pyre along with guys like Hendry, Rosenberg, Maund, and others who have occasionally had the gall to shift their calls according to the best information as they see it, and not be stuck with a perma-call based on some gospel laid down in some shadowy past, by agenda driven shadowy characters.

If the 3rd largest global economy has been allowed to stimulate or monetize themselves to this degree (so far) how much stimulus (percentage wise) might the 1st and 2nd largest economies ultimately be able to inject repeatedly into their economies?Quite a bit more by the looks of it.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Chart of the Day:Bank of Japan Beats Fed, ECB in Gulping Assets

By Toru Fujioka and Scott LanmanJanuary 07, 2015 4:00 PM EST

The Bank of Japan’s asset purchases are soaring as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda tries to reflate the world’s third-biggest economy.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows balance sheets of major central banks compared to the size of their economies. The BOJ’s assets swelled to 57 percent of Japan’s gross domestic product at the end of September, up from 34 percent when Kuroda introduced stimulus in April 2013 and more than double the comparable 25 percent for the U.S. Federal Reserve. The European Central Bank’s assets, by contrast, shrank from a peak of nearly 32 percent of GDP in mid-2012 to 20 percent.

The BOJ has room to purchase every new bond issued by the government with unprecedented monetary easing...(cont.)

I see the EURUSD zipped down from 1.185 to 1.181 over the past 90 minutes. Subsequently the USD zipped up to 92.37 ~~~~~~~~~~~~Coming soon...Packers/Cowboys on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field.Should be a great game and hopefully it snows like crazy...just because!

Chicago Fed's Charlie Evans appears to have decided to flex his voting member status, Bullard-ness this evening. Speaking during a forum in Chicago, after The FOMC Minutes showed data-dependence was the thing... Evans exclaimed "raising rates would be a catastrophe," and that "housing hasn't shown the strength he'd like to see," prompting S&P futures - with the help of USDJPY - to suddenly surge 16 points (and drag WTI Crude futures above $49.50 for fun). Nikkei futures enjoyed the ride ramping 200 points as USDJPY hit 119.70.

I would agree with that...confidence is everything.The necessity of it (loose monetary policies) might eventually trump confidence when most people realize or just accept that direct debt monetization is currently becoming the new normal.I think lots of people realize some facets of the markets or economies is FUBAR and they'll accept almost any method that keeps it afloat for as long as possible no matter how it's accomplished.

We live in extreme times where the new normal doesn't feel quite right at this point in time.

Central banks', including the Federal Reserve, actions have been failing ever since the start. They follow and react to situations they have no control over.

Markets will become extremely volatile with less participants and more electronic money available to throw at targeted stocks. Due to frustration or oppression there are less investors involved as you look at total volume. Money infusions into US markets are coming from foreign avenues when fleeing Euroland and Japan. It is like a bathtub affect except on a ocean scale but even in current market events money movements are easy to spot. Look at the Euro compared to the US$. Only a re-weighting of the dollar index will hide the obvious. And no one talks about emerging markets lately.

It seems like people have figured it out and finally got tired of it all.Armstrongs "Fools" post stated it perfectly.You can't keep blaming faceless evil entities for the lack of overall global investor interest in gold or silver this point and still try to convince others that the metals are in reality undervalued no matter what the market has established.It's almost as nonsensical as the GLD inventory assertions.On one hand the GLD phyz inventory existence is being disputed as phony or wildly inaccurate and it's relevance questioned by those who believe there is no gold.But on the other hand (or side of their mouth) their insinuating that the fake GLD inventory (that supposedly doesn't exist) is being withdrawn and shipped to China and the gold is incredibly somehow Fed gold that the US will never get back.So which is it? The non-existent GLD inventory is an irrelevant barometer that proves nothing OR it's an indicator that it's real gold (Fed/JPM gold!) that's being shipped to Asia because (in case you didn't hear) the vaults of London or Fort Knox are empty.

How can someone continue to assert something they selectively choose to believe or not believe and present it as being factual or (ir)relevant in order to prove they're right no matter what? I think most people at this point have allowed themselves to see through it all.As far as the Zman situation over there it's become obvious that no one can rationally or maturely respond back to him without resorting to juvenile or angry name calling. Their pure trollish or drunken responses that offer nothing fresh or substansive to the conversation.Some of those folks are lifers and they're preparing for "the end" even if it takes their entire lifetime (or their childrens) to prove they're right about the collapse of fill-in-the-blank.

Good luck with that outlook and the consequences of it if "the end" doesn't happen as planned or even hoped for.

Upon further reflection, the tone of that post came out all wrong and not as originally intended at all, so I deleted it.

The short version is simply that zman is a lone voice of reason over there at TFMR, and of course vilified for it.

There is a saying in investing that it's ok to be wrong, everybody does it, but it's not ok to stay wrong. zman is an example of a guy that decided not to stay wrong.

There was a time when the narrative at those sorts of blogs seemed to sort of fit the world we were seeing, maybe could explain some things. They just don't anymore. Their "stopped clock" moment has come and gone.

Just a heads up to anyone who owned shares of Silver Corp Mining/SVM who isn't aware of the class action lawsuit seeking damages if you owned it between May 5, 2009 - Sept. 13, 2011If you qualify and act in time there is a set aside pool of $14,000,000 you might be able to benefit from.From May 20, 2009 - $2.42 per shareFrom Sept. 2, 2011 - Sept. 12 - $1.54 p/sFrom Sept. 13, 2011 on - $0

I just filled out my application and only held 500 shares back in 2010 for a few days and made a few bucks on it. Here's the link...

Contact the website berdonclaims.com and request the lawsuit application asap. It needs to submitted by Feb.4, 2015 or you're out of luck.I hope this might help some of you recoup some skin back you might have lost or even gained back then.

So much for all that nonsense about the London vaults being empty.Ask yourself...would they dare do this if they're vaults were almost empty?~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~

~LME MULLING LAUNCH OF GOLD AND SILVER FUTURES CONTRACTS~

Jan 8, 2015 - 9:26 AM GMTby Ian Walker

The London Metal Exchange is mulling the launch of monthly gold and silver futures contracts, industry sources told FastMarkets.

The dollar-denominated gold contracts will be physically settled – probably against the LBMA good delivery list, which sets and regulates the acceptable requirements for large gold and silver bars.

The LBMA publishes a list of “acceptable refiners” whose large bars weigh around 400 ounces (12.5kg).

The exchange is also said to be mulling a mini contract alongside the primary gold facility as well as a silver contract – also alongside a mini contract – with a view to introducing similar products for platinium and palladium in the future, sources added.

The LME, which declined to comment, has had six silver contracts in its history, the latest in the 1990s and none of them successful.

But this would be the exchange’s first solo foray into gold futures trading – it was part of a joint venture with gold industry participants in the London Gold Futures Market (LGFM) in 1982 but the lack of domestic and speculative investors caused the market to close within three years.

In this instance, however, the contracts are likely to be in US dollars and will be monthly futures contracts...(cont.)http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/newsbreak-lme-mulling-launch-gold-and-silver-futures-contracts-sources-87104/#sthash.WBZhFv9z.6ZG3CXuQ.dpuf

Eur Usd just reached my target of 17.60 this week and I sold 50% of my short position at that level.I also have a close stop loss to buy stop the remaining 50%, as the ema15 is a bit far from prices on the daily time unit. ma20 as well.There is a time when I should think about making a profit, and this seemed to be the proper area.The red support is defined by the symetrical projection of the previous downards channel. It may be enough to start a bounce, as there is also a major support area in this 1.1640-1.8 landscape, which corresponds to the low of 2005 and some other historical low near 1.18.So...not the wrong place to cash out, especially as the market may be vulnerable to some quick short covering at this moment.

Should 1.1650 be broken, as mentioned before, I wouldn't be surprised to see Eur Usd at 1:1 sometime this year.

And still witnessing the greatest economic miracle ever seen, whereby trillions were printed out of thin air, and consumers enjoyed an orgy of consumer spending and home renovation like no other time. All you have to do is look at the eye-popping performance of shopping mall REITs like SPG and home renovation plays like SHW or MHK.

All the doomers and preppers who hung on the coat tails of General Jim have seen their retirement accounts summarily executed, as evidenced by the recent price action of TRX.

And anyone who dared to short the mighty U.S. Dollar got caught on the wrong side of one of the greatest currency moves in this decade.And the poor Peak Oil guys, what happened to that? Here we are sitting on the greatest glut of energy products in world history and have just witnessed the 2nd steepest, fastest, collapse in energy prices ever seen. All those guys who rushed out and bought electric cars and Prius vehicles must feel incredibly stupid.

And what the heck happened to that site King World News? Now it looks like either TMZ.com or Daily Mirror, complete with male enhancement ads, supermodel babes promising astonishing weight loss claims, and all sorts of other seedy ads. And of course, they continue to push the “Endgame” and “Terrifying Collapse” predictions which have become the laughing stock of newsletters.

We all need to congratulate Trader Dan for picking the exact top in energy prices, I saved myself huge by selling all my XLE and UGA but if I had simply shorted everything and held those bearish positions I’d be a millionaire by now, LOL….

I think 2015 will be the year the many commodity funds get liquidated and close, and those clinging to the doomer cults will simply walk away from their sordid investments and never watch a quote screen ever again.Meanwhile all those who had unlimited faith in the Fed, the U.S. consumer, and the mighty, mightly U.S. Dollar are now in a position to retire comfortably.

DPH;Martin is one of the few guys out there who have also correctly taken the gold hucksters to task. As said many times here - they have financially destroyed their victims with their incessant idiocy and shameful failed predictions.

A person who held some USD would be doing pretty well right now.But what if most of the cupboards went bare?How long can this continue until some type of revolution takes place down there?

The link below is a price chart of gold during this crisis priced in Venezuelan Bolivars shows that gold hasn't been helpful to Venezuelans at all compared to just holding USD.

http://www.bullion-rates.com/gold/VEF/Year-1-chart.htm

If you extrapolate the Venezuelan experience against a similar situation in the US taking place (which I don't see happening unless some terrible natural event or foolish war were to occur) would the value/price of gold be of any help at that point in time?It needs to be considered and I'm not insistant it wouldn't be helpful. But how much?~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~☆~

~Venezuelans Throng Grocery Stores Under Military Protection~

By Andrew Rosati and Noris SotoJanuary 09, 2015 4:08 PM EST

Shoppers thronged grocery stores across Caracas today as deepening shortages led the government to put Venezuela’s food distribution under military protection.

Long lines, some stretching for blocks, formed outside grocery stores in the South American country’s capital as residents search for scarce basic items such as detergent and chicken.

“I’ve visited six stores already today looking for detergent -- I can’t find it anywhere,” said Lisbeth Elsa, a 27-year-old janitor, waiting in line outside a supermarket in eastern Caracas. “We’re wearing our dirty clothes again because we can’t find it. At this point I’ll buy whatever I can find.”

A dearth of foreign currency exacerbated by collapsing oil prices has led to shortages of imports from toilet paper to car batteries, and helped push annual inflation to 64 percent in November. The lines will persist as long as price controls remain in place, Luis Vicente Leon, director of Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis, said today in a telephone interview.

Government officials met with representatives from supermarket chains today to guarantee supplies, state news agency AVN reported. Interior Minister Carmen Melendez said yesterday that security forces would be sent to food stores and distribution centers to protect shoppers.

“Don’t fall into desperation -- we have the capacity and products for everyone, with calmness and patience. The stores are full,” she said on state television.

President Nicolas Maduro last week vowed to implement an economic “counter-offensive” to steer the country out of recession, including an overhaul of the foreign exchange system. He has yet to provide details. While the main government-controlled exchange sets a rate of 6.3 bolivars per U.S. dollar, the black market rate is as much as 187 per dollar...(cont.)http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-09/venezuelans-throng-grocery-stores-on-military-protection-order.html

I don't remember where I read it first, here or somewhere else but Venezuela was selling off its US refineries and maybe some Citgo gas stations to pay the bills at home. Typical selling at the bottom of a market instead of at the top. They are getting desperate. The country has oil but it is heavy crude (sulphur rich?) and has to be sent to the US for refinement.http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/06/us-refinery-sale-citgo-pete-idUSKBN0IQ2AH20141106

Then the last thing I read was McDonald's there in Venezuela was in short supply of french fried. McDonald's claimed it was due to West Coast dock strikes or slow downs. Funny no other countries in South America are reporting a french fries shortage. So goes Communism or whatever socialist flavor of the month it is called.

Speaking of Communism, without the counter opinions of Armstrong types, I would have no perspective all. Just the one sided propaganda machines output via the local US press to rely on and I don't think anybody can withstand a constant brow beating.

Dan, your commentary on the new site is first-rate. What I found problematic was the "comment system" (for lack of a better term).

One of the great things about this (old) site is that comments follow your commentary. This keeps everything focused on the topic at hand. On the new Beehive, you have to start a new string just to comment, then make sure it references a certain commentary if you want to start a discussion. Maybe it's better now, but I did not find that people were really very interested in doing that, so that interesting discussions almost never got started.

Also, the better posters here didn't join, so they were not even there to even try to make the Beehive work, discussion-wise. I found that many new threads were just newbies asking for your opinion, or pros posting their analysis (which often had nothing whatsoever to do with your commentary) It produced a very "dissociated" vibe.

I would consider becoming a paying member again if the site could be redesigned to allow comments to logically follow your articles. Everyone does it this way: WSJ, SA, etc. It's just logical.

This is meant as POSITIVE criticism, and I would love to hear your take on these issues. Thanks for keeping this old site, BTW--we know you certainly don't have to.

If you have benefitted from some of the articles posted here and would like to express your gratitude to Trader Dan for freely sharing some of the market wisdom he has gained over his long trading career, please feel free to Donate.

About Me

Dan Norcini is a professional off-the-floor commodities trader bringing more than 20 years experience in the markets to provide a trader’s insight and commentary on the day’s price action. His editorial contributions and supporting technical analysis charts cover a broad range of tradable entities including the precious metals and foreign exchange markets as well as the broader commodity world. He is a frequent contributor to both Reuters and Dow Jones as a market analyst for the livestock sector and can be on occasion be found as a source in the Wall Street Journal’s commodities section as well as CBS Marketwatch where his views on the gold market can often be found.
He is also an avid beekeeper.

The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes but are instead intended to convey general technical analysis principles. Trade at your own risk. Futures trading in particular is fraught with peril due to extreme market volatility.

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Readers therefore are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence and/or obtain professional advice before making any investment or trading decision.