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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

HOF 2011 returning players

Last week I promised some insightful commentary on the hall of fame voting that will be announced tomorrow. I was quite busy during the holidays and ran out of time to be able to go into as much detail as I did last year. Here is some info on all those returning to the ballot in 2011 by order of who has been on longest. Much of this is a rehash of last year's posts but I have included the 2010 voting performance as well.

Dave Parker is on the ballot for his 15th and final year . Parker played for 19 seasons beginning with the Pittsburgh Pirates (1973-1983) and ending his career with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1991. In between he played for the Cicinnati Reds (1984-1987), Oakland A's 1988-1989, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, and California Angels (1991). When Parkers playing days came to a close he had amassed 2712 total hits, 339 homers and a lifetime batting average of .290. He played outfield for his most of career where he won 3 consecutive gold gloves (77-79) and was DH the majority of his last 4 seasons. Parker was the 1978 NL MVP, runner up in 1985, a 7 time all star and the all star MVP in 1979.

Parker has been on the ballot since 1997 his best year came in 1998 when he received 24.5 % of the vote. In 2005 Parker had 12.6% of the vote and was up to 15.2% in last years balloting.

Analysis : Players on the 15th ballot who eventually make the Hall in the BBWWA process generally are increasing in % of votes year after year and closing in on the 75% mark. Jim Rice, For an example who was voted in in his 15th year in 2009 received 64.8 % in his 12th election, 71.2% in his 13th, 72.2% in his penultimate election and received 76.4 % when he entered the Hall. Rice's low water mark of 29.4 % in his 5th election is 5 percentage points better than Parker did in his best year. Outlook: Nothing shy of a miracle will make Parker a Hall of Famer on the writer's ballot.

Bert Blyleven is on the ballot for his 14th year. Blyleven began his career pitching for the Minnesota Twins (1970-1976), spent a season and a half with the Texas Rangers (76-77), 3 seasons with the Pittsburgh Pirates (78-80) 4 and a half years with the Cleveland Indians followed by a return trip to Minnesota (1985-1988) and ended his playing days with the California Angels (89-92). Blyleven retired with a lifetime era of 3.31, 3701 strikeouts and 13 wins shy of the 300 mark. While Blyleven helped 2 teams win the World Series (Pittsburgh 79 and Minnesota 1987) with a combined 2-1 record and 2.35 ERA his trophy cabinet does seem to be shy of personal accolades. He had no gold gloves, only 2 all star appearances and never finished higher than 3rd in Cy Young voting.

Blyleven has been on the HOF ballot since 1998 when like Parker he received 17.5% in his first opportunity. Last year was his best showing as he received 74.2% of the vote. He has gained almost 35 percentage points in the last 5 years (Blyleven received 40.2 % in 2005).

Analysis and outlook: Looking again at Rice for comparison we find that Blyleven 74.2% last year in his 13th election is superior to Rice 63.5% at the same time in the process. 3 years. Considering that Blyleven missed election by less than a percentage point last year, he should be a shoe-in this time around.

Dale Murphy on the ballot for the 13th year played the majority of his career with the Atlanta Braves (1976-1990). He played 2 and a half seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies (1990-1992) and played in 26 games with the Colorado Rockies in 1993. Murphy held a lifetime batting average of .265, had 2,111 hits and 398 home runs. Murphy started as a catcher with the braves but played the majority of his games in the outfield. He was elected to 7 all star games, received 5 consecutive gold glove awards (82-86) 4 consecutive silver slugger awards (82-85) and 2 consecutive MVP seasons (82+83).

Murphy received 19.3% of the vote in 1999, his first year on the ballot. His high water mark was in 2000 where he received 20.8%. In 2004 he reached his low mark only appearing on 8.5 % of the ballots.In 2005 he raised that mark to 10.5% He has gained A meager 2.2% points between the election of 2005 and 2010.

Analysis and outlook: A serious HOF contender on his 13th ballot would be dramatically better positioned than Mr. Murphy. While his overall prospects are not as immediately bleak as Parkers, There is nothing in the voting record to show that Murphy will ever get in on the writer's ballot.

Jack Morris is on the ballot for the twelfth year. Morris pitched for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1990, the Minnesota Twins in 1991, the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992 & 1993 and finished his career with the Cleveland Indians in 1994. Morris finished with an era of .390, 2,478 strikeouts and 254 wins. Morris won World Series championships with 3 teams (Detroit 84, Minnesota 91 and Toronto 92) He had a 4-2 World Series and a 2.96 ERA. His individual trophy case is as barren as Bylevens with the exception of the 1991 World Series MVP and 5 all star appearances as compared to Bert's 2.

Morris has been on the HOF ballot since 2000 when he appeared on 22.2 % of the ballots. His best year was last year when he received 52.3% support an increase of 19 percentage points since 2005.

Analysis: With 4 years left on the ballot Morris is in a preferable but somewhat tenuous position. Last year Morris was only 2 points behind where Blyleven prior to his eleventh election. Blyleven was able to increase 14 percentage points on the road to his present favorable position. Last year I said that If Morris needed a double digit surge in one or two of the next few elections in order to avo id being on the outside looking in when his 15 years are up. Morris came close to that double digit increase last year when he raised 8.3 % from 44 to his present 52.3. The math says that incremental increases like that will get him to Cooperstown.

Don Mattingly is on his 11th year of the ballot. Mattingly played his entire career (1982-1995) as a first baseman for the New York Yankees. In Mattingly's 14 seasons for the Bronx Bombers he hit 222 home runs, maintained a lifetime average of .307 and had 2153 career hits. Mattingly made 6 all star teams, won 9 gold glove awards (85-89 + 91-94) and 3 consecutive silver slugger awards (85-87). He was the American League MVP in 1985 and the runner-up in 1986.

Mattingly has been on the ballot since 2001 garnering 28.2 % of the vote that year. 2001 was also the year he received the most support. He has only been on 20% or more of the ballots twice (the other year being 2002). He has gained almost 4 percentage points of support in the past 5 years (11.4 in 2005 and 16.1 in 2010).

Anaylysis and Outlook. Mattingly's 28.2% in 2001 would have made a good point to build on, instead his % decreases for a few years then increase for a few and then goes back down Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven both had less votes than Mattingly did in 2001 but by 2010 Blyleven had more than 4 times the votes Mattingly had and Morris had more than 3 times more. With 5 elections left Mattingly's only legitimate chance of being voted in by the BBWAA is by increasing his support about 12 percentage points each year and given his up and down history that does not seem likely.

Alan Trammell is on the ballot for the tenth year. He played his entire career for the Detroit Tigers from 1977 to 1996. While he played occasional other positions for the Tigers including DH, He predominately played shortstop and did so each season he was in the major leagues. Trammell was a 6 time all star (80, 84,85,87,88, & 90), 4 time gold glove recipient, (80,81,83 and 84), 3 time Silver Slugger winner (87,88 &90) and the 1984 World Series MVP. In 1987 He was runner up for the AL MVP award. Alan hit .285 for the Tigers with 2365 hits and 185 Home Runs.Like Andre Dawson who reached the magic 75% and was inducted last year, Trammel has been on the ballot since 2002. Unlike Dawson, Trammell has never even come close to the 75% needed for election. He was on 15.7% of the ballots in his first year of eligibility, was up to 16.9% in 2005 and hit a high water mark of 22.4% in 2010.

Analysis and outlook: In his first 8 elections Trammels support had been consistently in the teens. Event though he broke into the 20's last year, I have no sense of a wide spread appeal for putting Trammell into the Hall.

Lee Smith the lone returning relief pitcher is on his 9th year on the ballot. Smith pitched from 1980 to 1997. Beginning with the Chicago Cubs (1980-1987), then playing 2 and a half seasons with the Boston Red Sox (88-90), parts of 4 seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals (90-93). His later years he played on the New York Yankees (93), Baltimore Orioles (94). California Angels (95,96), Cincinnati Reds (96), and Montreal Expos 1997. He had a lifetime ERA of 3.03, 1,251 strike outs and 478 saves. Smith was chosen for 7 all star games (83,87,91-95). He was second in Cy Young voting in 1991 the year he won the first of his 2 consecutive NL Rolaids Relief awards for the Cardinals. He won the AL version of the award in 94 with the Orioles.

Smith has been on the ballot in 2003 when he received 42.3% of the vote. He dropped down to 36.6% of the vote in 2004 and in the last 5 years has seen that percentage rise from 38.3 in 2005 to a high water mark of 47.3% in the last election.

Analysis and Outlook: Smith's initial vote count and his current standing bode well for eventual enshrinement when viewed separately. Looking at them together makes one wonder why he has only moved up 5 percentage points in 8 elections. If whatever has been keeping him stuck in the 40's resolves himself there is plenty of time for Smith to get to Cooperstown.

Harold Baines who is on the ballot for the 5th year. Baines began and finished his MLB career with the Chicago White Sox. He actually played for the pale hose on 3 different occasions (80-89, 96-97, 2000-2001) In between he played with the Texas Rangers, (89,90) 3 stints with the Baltimore Orioles (93-95, 97-99, 2000), Oakland A's (90-92), and the Cleveland Indians in 1999. Baines approached the 3000 hit mark late in his career but finished well under with 2,866 hit 384 homers and had a life time batting average of .289. Baines, a six time all star (85,86,87,89,91, and 99) spent most of the 1980's as an outfielder and spent the 2nd half his career as a DH.

Baines first appeared on the ballot in 2007 appearing on 5.3% of the completed ballots. He had 5.2 % in 2008 ,5.9 % in 2009 and 6.1% last year.

Analysis and Outlook: With 11 elections remaining, it is too early to write Baines off entirely. However, just a small decrease in his support over the past 4 years would remove him from the ballot altogether.

Mark McGwire is also on his 5th year on the ballot. I would generally tell you what teams he played for and the statistics he compiled over his career, but as McGwire infamously once noted I am not here to talk about the past.Actually I am here to talk about the past so I will tell you that McGwire played for the Oakland A's form 1986 to 1997 and played for the St. Louis Cardinals from 1997 to 2001. He hit 583 home runs and once held the single season home run record at 70. The first baseman had 1626 career hits with a lifetime batting average of .263. McGwire was the 1987 Rookie of the year, won a gold glove in 1990, silver slugger awards in 92,96,and 98. The 12 time all star (87-92 and 95-2000) was the runner-up for the NL MVP in 1998.

McGwire first appeared on the hall of fame ballot in 2007 with 23.5% of the vote, had 23.6% in 2008, 21.6 % in 2009 and 23.7% of the completed ballots last year.

Anaylisis and Outlook: With career numbers alone McGwire would probably already be in the hall or be at least 30 - 40 more percentage points closer. Allegations and speculation about steroid use and his aforementioned inability to talk about the past has radically cut off his support. I don't expect his numbers to improve anytime soon.

Tim Raines is on the ballot for his 4th year. He played for the Montreal Expos (1979-1990 and 2001) Chicago White Sox (1991-1995) New York Yankees (1996-1998), Oakland A's (2000), Baltimore Orioles (2001) and finished up with the Florida Marlins in 2002. Raines had 2605 hits, 808 stolen bases and a lifetime batting average of .294. Raines played in seven straight all star games (1981-1987 and was the 1987 all star MVP. He won a Silver Slugger award in 1986 the year he led the National League with a .334 batting average.Raines first year on the ballot was 2008 when he received 24.3 % of the vote. In 2009 he was down to 22.6% but increased to 30.4% last year.

Analysis and Outlook: Receiving over 20% of the vote on your first two ballots and over 30 on your third is a pretty good way to start your bid for hall of fame induction. I also feel that Rickey Henderson's election on the first ballot in 2009 will ultimately increase his chances in the years to come as he is such a similar player to Henderson.

Roberto Alomar is on the ballot for the second year. He played (predominantly second base) for 7 teams (Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Indians, Mets, White Sox, Diamond Backs) over 17 seasons. Lifetime .300 batting average. More than 2700 hits. More than 200 home runs. Within 25 of the 500 steal mark. 12 All Star appearances. 1 All Star MVP. 10 gold gloves, 4 silver sluggers and 1 alcs MVP. Best MVP voting = 3rd

Alomar received 73.7% of the vote last year in his first election.

Analysis and Outlook: Alomar was just spitting distance (sorry could not resist) from induction last year. In my mind he is a no doubter for enshrinement come the summer.

Barry Larkin is also on the ballot for his second year. He played (predominantly shortstop) for 19 seasons with the Cincinnati Reds. Over 2300 hits 2 shy of 200 homers and a lifetime batting average of .295 and over 350 stolen bases. A 12 time All Star, with 3 Golden Gloves and 9 Silver Sluggers, Larkin was the 1995 National League MVP.

Last year Larkin received more than half (51.6%) of the writer's votes in his first election.

Analysis and Outlook: Larkin finished 4th among those returning to this year's ballot and second only to Alomar for first timers. He did much better than I anticipated his first time out of the gate and should be considered a very strong candidate for eventual enshrinement.

Edgar Martinez is on the ballot for the second year.He played 18 seasons (predominantly DH) for the Seattle Mariners. Over 2200 hits, 9 above the 300 HR mark and a career batting average of .312. Martinez was selected to 7 all star games, and won 5 silver slugger awards. Best MVP voting = 3rd.

Martinez received more than 1/3 (36.2%) of the writers votes in 2010.

Analysis and Outlook: A strong showing in 2010 may change the mind of those who say that a full time DH who was generally the second or third best offensive player on his squad is not HOF material. The next few elections will definitely show which way he is trending.

Fred McGriff is 1 of 4 players on the ballot for the second year. He played (predominantly 1B for 6 teams (Rays, Braves, Blue Jays, Braves, Cubs, Dodgers) over 19 seasons. McGrifff posted a lifetime batting average of .284 with 10 shy of 2,500 hits and missing the 500 homer mark by 7. A 5 time all star with 1 all star MVP award and 3 Silver Sluggers. Best MVP Voting = 4th.

McGriff's name appeared on more than 1 of every 5 writers (21.5%) ballots last year.

Analysis and Outlook: If the criteria for selection was just nicknames alone, the Crime Dog would have been a first ballot hall of famer. I think his accomplishments are deserving of having him in the conversation for years to come. 20% of the voters in his first year was a pretty good chunk let's see how many more he can take a bite out of.

I will return tomorrow prior to the announcement and to say how I would have voted given 10 votes as I did last year. I will also prognosticate as to who I think will be voted in.

I will unfortunately not be able to discuss at all the first timers on the ballot.