Saturday, April 04, 2015

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATESTROPICAL STORM MAYSAK (CHEDENG) UPDATE NUMBER 015 Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (23:30 GMT) Saturday 04 April 2015Next Update: Sunday Early Morning, 05 April 2015MAYSAK (CHEDENG) has rapidly weakened into a Tropical Storm as it moved towards the northwest...passing well to the north of Catanduanes and closer to Eastern Luzon. The Potential Landfall Area will be somewhere along the shores of Aurora or Isabela by Sunday early morning (Apr 05)...with a Strike Probability of 70 to 90 percent.

Residents and visitors along Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the development of Maysak (Chedeng).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 0.5-1.5 m (1.5-5 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Bicol - tonight...and across Northern Quezon, Aurora and Isabela - tonight through Sunday morning (Apr 05). Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Rest of Northern and Central Luzon, Visayas and the Rest of Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TS MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will continue moving northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, MAYSAK (CHEDENG) shall be moving across the Western Part of the Philippine Sea through Sunday early morning...and shall make landfall along the shores near the Aurora-Isabela border sometime before sunrise. It shall then traverse Northern Luzon crossing Southern Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga and Abra on Sunday morning...and shall emerge over the coast of Ilocos Sur or West Philippine Sea in the afternoon (April 5). By Monday afternoon (April 6), Maysak shall already be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (P.A.R.) or over the South China Sea.

MAYSAK (CHEDENG) will maintain its weakening trend throughout the forecast period especially when it enters the land mass of Luzon...Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 55 kph by Sunday afternoon, April 6.

Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs!