After selloff, Asia looks to Japan, China data

After a sharp selloff last week, Asian traders looking for a degree of stability this week may not find much relief from Japanese gross domestic product (GDP) and China's monthly data indicators.

Due on Wednesday, Japan's GDP for the April-June period is expected to contract for the first time in two years on the back of a three-percentage-point sales tax hike launched at the start of the quarter.

A Reuters poll of 25 economists see GDP shrinking 7.1 percent on year and 1.8 percent on quarter, compared to the economy's 6.7 percent on-year rise in the first three months of 2014 when consumers frontloaded on spending before the tax hike.

"Although the payback effect following the consumption tax hike was anticipated, the contraction may be larger than the initial forecast," said Societe Generale analysts in a note. The bank's predictions are slightly more bearish than consensus at 1.6 percent on quarter.

AID | Gettty | Getty Images

The data would be the latest in a string of disappointing reports from the world's third-largest economy following Friday's unexpected current account deficit and will likely bring about louder calls for the Bank of Japan to ease policy further.

Japanese machinery orders for June on Thursday are expected to paint a brighter economic picture however, with median forecasts of a rise of 16.7 percent on month, which would be the first increase in three months.

A raft of Chinese data is due on Wednesday, including fixed-asset investment, industrial output and retail sales for July, but little change is expected.

According to National Australia Bank, industrial production is seen rising to 9.1 percent on year from 9.2 percent in June and retail sales are forecast to improve to 12.5 percent on year from 12.4 percent previously. Fixed asset investment could edge higher to 17.4 percent from 17.3 percent in June.

Food inflation has been of particular concern to the Southeast Asian nation with vegetable prices soaring 64 percent in the past two years. But the country has made progress in recent months under the hawkish eye of central bank governor Raghuram Rajan, with consumer prices rising 7.3 percent in June, their slowest pace in more than two years, and WPI easing to a four-month low of 5.4 percent.

"We forecast the upcoming July CPI print to come in at [unchanged] at 7.3 percent y/y, while the wholesale price index based inflation for July will likely come in at 5.1 percent. We continue to expect a cumulative 50 basis-points of easing in policy rates by end-2014," said economists at Barclays in a report on Friday.