Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile

Abstract

The design, management and evaluation of foresight is
challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of
foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness
in the context of other policy processes. To help
overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of
foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way
and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which
analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge,
relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape,
system, organisation and individual. We construct these
layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them
with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in
Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from
considering multiple levels and respective different
emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape
layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge
while on the organisational layer it is more on
capabilities. The layers help position the foresight
exercise and its effects in relation to the broader
context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered
foresight to support the design, management and
evaluation of foresight.

title = "Multi-layered foresight: Lessons from regional foresight in Chile",

abstract = "The design, management and evaluation of foresight is challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness in the context of other policy processes. To help overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge, relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape, system, organisation and individual. We construct these layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from considering multiple levels and respective different emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge while on the organisational layer it is more on capabilities. The layers help position the foresight exercise and its effects in relation to the broader context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered foresight to support the design, management and evaluation of foresight.",

N2 - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is
challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of
foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness
in the context of other policy processes. To help
overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of
foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way
and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which
analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge,
relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape,
system, organisation and individual. We construct these
layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them
with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in
Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from
considering multiple levels and respective different
emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape
layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge
while on the organisational layer it is more on
capabilities. The layers help position the foresight
exercise and its effects in relation to the broader
context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered
foresight to support the design, management and
evaluation of foresight.

AB - The design, management and evaluation of foresight is
challenging firstly due to the vast diversity of
foresight practices and secondly due to its embeddedness
in the context of other policy processes. To help
overcome these challenges we look at the contributions of
foresight from multiple perspectives in a systemic way
and propose the concept of multi-layered foresight, which
analyses the contributions of foresight to knowledge,
relations and capabilities on four layers: landscape,
system, organisation and individual. We construct these
layers building on earlier literature and illustrate them
with a case example from the region of Antofagasta in
Chile. We argue that foresight exercises benefit from
considering multiple levels and respective different
emphases in analysis. For instance, on the landscape
layer the focus tends to be on contributions to knowledge
while on the organisational layer it is more on
capabilities. The layers help position the foresight
exercise and its effects in relation to the broader
context. Thus, we expect the concept of multi-layered
foresight to support the design, management and
evaluation of foresight.