U.S. Documents | 06 Jan. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Slower December Job Gains - Ignore itNone of today's four monthly economic reports will tell us much new about the outlook, and one of them--ADP employment--will tell us more about the past, but that won't stop markets obsessing over it. We have set out the problems with the ADP number in numerous previous Monitors, but, briefly, the key point is that it is generated from regression models which are heavily influenced by the previous month's official payroll numbers and other lagging data like industrial production, personal incomes, retail and trade sales, and even GDP growth. It is not based solely on the employment data taken from companies which use ADP for payroll processing, and it tends to lag the official numbers.

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None of today's four monthly economic reports will tell us much new about the outlook, and one of them--ADPemployment--will tell us more about the past, but that won't stop markets obsessing over it. We have set out the problems with the ADP number in numerous previous Monitors, but, briefly, the key point is that it is generated from regression models which are heavily influenced by the previous month's official payroll numbers and other lagging data like industrial production, personal incomes, retail and trade sales, and even GDP growth. It is not based solely on the employmentdata taken from companies which use ADP for payroll processing, and it tends to lag the official numbers.

Posted: 6th Jan 2016 in 'U.S. Documents'

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