Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease based on path analysis model in Xiamen City

YAN Yu-bing;YU Xin-lian;Department of Emerging Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention,Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Department of Preventive Medicine,Public Health School of Fujian Medical University;

Objective To investigate the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease( HFMD) in Xiamen City. Methods Path analysis model was used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of meteorological factors and intestinal virus activity on the incidence of HFMD. The Path parameters were estimated and tested by using the maximum likelihood method. The model was evaluated and modified by absolute indices,relative indices and parsimony indices. Results Meteorological factors had lag effect on the incidence of HFMD in about 5 days. Relative humidity,large evaporation,atmospheric pressure,intestinal virus activity and long vacation directly affect the incidence of HFMD,whereas temperature,precipitation,large evaporation,water vapor pressure,relative humidity,air pressure,maximum wind speed and wind direction had indirect effect on that. There was no significant correlation between wind speed and the incidence of HFMD. Conclusions Meteorological factors are closely related to the HFMD,the path analysis model can verify their relationship.