October 07, 2012 12:23 AM CDTOctober 07, 2012 12:23 AM CDTGrant: The problem(s) with re-signing Josh Hamilton, and the men that could replace him

Grant: The problem(s) with re-signing Josh Hamilton, and the men that could replace him

3/9

Michael Ainsworth/Staff Photographer

Drama: The Rangers have had to deal with two very public setbacks in Hamilton’s battle for sobriety. They’ve seen his performance vary wildly based on his struggles with using tobacco or too much caffeine. Not to mention that the Rangers have had to add an extra staff member whose job is essentially to keep Hamilton accountable. It is an incredible load, and it constantly forces teammates to answer questions about him and for him. The stress only continues to build. There is no relief valve. Over the last two weeks of the season, there were moments it appeared the stress had finally broken the Rangers’ “Together in Texas” mantra. Hamilton often looked like a man on an island.

Looking for a silver
lining in the demise of the Rangers’ 2012 season?

Ok, there is none.

Exiting the playoffs on Oct. 5, however, does
offer the Rangers the opportunity to get a head start on tackling the
off-season’s largest, most complicated, most confounding and most polarizing
issue: What to do about Josh Hamilton?

Under the new collective bargaining agreement,
free agency starts for qualified players as soon as the last out of the World
Series is recorded, eliminating the exclusive negotiating period clubs once had
with players. Had the Rangers gone to the World Series again, they’d have had
little time to develop a strategy on how they want to proceed with Hamilton or if they want
to proceed at all. While nothing is likely to get done in terms of real
negotiations over the next three weeks, the Rangers are afforded an opportunity
to rationally sift through all the issues that make this such a complicated decision.

Regardless of the events of the last two
weeks, walking away from Hamilton
without significant discussion would be an emotional decision, and those are
rarely wise. It is worth noting that over his five years in Texas, only seven players in the majors
compiled a higher OPS, and the only one of those who is going to be a free
agent this fall is Lance Berkman. And he will probably retire.

Among the issues:

162-game averages

for six years

H , 2B , 3B , HR , RBI , AVG. , OPS

193 , 35 , 6 ,
16 , 73 , .297 , .791

162-game averages

for eight years

H , 2B , 3B , HR , RBI , AVG. , OPS

153 , 34 , 3 ,
20 , 75 , .255 , .758

162-game averages

for six years

H , 2B , 3B , HR , RBI , AVG. , OPS

182 , 41 , 1 ,
20 , 91 , .300 , .803

162-game averages

for 16 years

H , 2B , 3B , HR , RBI , AVG. , OPS

165 , 34 , 3 ,
25 , 95 , .277 , .801

162-game averages

for five years

H , 2B , 3B , HR , RBI , AVG. , OPS

181 , 36 , 7 ,
28 , 97 , .299 , .874

Age

Hamilton will be 32 next May.
His body, from years of neglect and abuse, is likely “old” for his age, and
he’s dealt with things such as cranky knees, cracked ribs, pneumonia, dental
abscesses and eye sensitivity. Regardless of how much any team is willing to
pay him on an annual basis, his age is going to play a part in the length of
terms. Early in the season, the last time the sides really talked, Hamilton was believed to
be seeking a commitment of at least seven years and probably more like nine.

The Rangers, having essentially established a
round-the-clock urgent care facility for him in the trainer’s room, are more
intimately aware of just how much it involves to keep him on the field in what
should be the prime of his career. Most teams consider the ages of 28-32 a
player’s prime. The Rangers would possibly be paying for a player whose health
problems are likely to make early-onset aging a real concern issue.

Drama

The Rangers have had to deal with — and manage
— two very public setbacks in Hamilton’s
battle for sobriety. They’ve seen his performance vary wildly based on his
struggles with using tobacco or too much caffeine. They’ve seen him venture off
to charm audiences on late night TV talk shows one night, then develop an
inability to function the next. And there is the looming movie project of his
life, and he’s expected to be involved in some way.

Not to mention that the Rangers have had to
add an extra staff member whose job is essentially to keep Hamilton accountable. It is an incredible
load, and it constantly forces teammates to answer questions about him and for
him. The stress only continues to build. There is no relief valve. Over the
last two weeks of the season, there were moments it appeared the stress had
finally broken the Rangers’ “Together in Texas”
mantra. Hamilton
often looked like a man on an island.

Replacement candidates

The Rangers can’t walk away from Hamilton without some
contingency plan. But how do you have a contingency plan for a guy who ranked
second in the AL
in homers and RBIs?

In other words, it takes a village. If the
Rangers decide to move on from Hamilton,
they must hope to find an elite talent to take his spot in the lineup and they
would probably need to upgrade at least one other offensive spot. Easy to plan;
tough to execute.

Here is a look at five players the Rangers
could target to replace him in the outfield and replace some, but not all, of
his offensive production:

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston

Though they ended up not making any deals, the
Rangers and Boston
had “good dialogue” around the trade deadline, major league officials said. A
good portion of those talks focused on Ellsbury, who is two years younger than Hamilton and would be
under club control for one more year. Ellsbury, who played center field for the
Red Sox, would add an extra athletic dimension to the lineup, but it’s unlikely
he could step into the No. 3 spot. Since he’s a left-handed hitter, if he could
slide there, it would allow the Rangers minimal shifting to the batting order.
If he couldn’t, it creates additional issues. One other thing: over the last
five years, Ellsbury has averaged about 20 games less per season than Hamilton. He’s at least
as much an injury risk as Hamilton,
if not more.

B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay

He will be the most attractive outfielder on
the free-agent market behind Hamilton.
He has speed and power and also durability, but he reaches base about 10
percent less than Hamilton.
If the Rangers are willing to commit seven years to any free agent on the
market, it might be Upton, who is 28 and might be about to hit his peak years.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado

He is 25, possesses prodigious talent, hits
left-handed and is signed long-term. What’s not to love? But the Rockies would have to be willing to do a complete rebuild
of the club to trade him, and the Rangers would have to overwhelm them with
prospects. Would Martin Perez and Mike Olt do it? Would Perez and Ian Kinsler
do it? Would it require more?

Billy Butler, Kansas City

He is only 26, under control through 2015
thanks to a recent contract extension and is coming off his best year. The
downside is he’s a hitter without a position, meaning he’d have to DH or play
first base, which solves none of the outfield void. Also, he bats right-handed,
which causes balance issues in the lineup. And he’s viewed as part of the core
of Kansas City’s
rebuilding project.

Torii Hunter, LA Angels

He’s a free agent and lives in Prosper during
the off-season. He’s also 37 and the chances of him repeating a .313 average,
.365 OBP and .817 OPS are not great. But on a short-term deal, he might be
worth the risk. He can’t play center any longer, but it might give the Rangers
a chance to go with a Leonys Martin-Craig Gentry platoon in center so they
could find out about Martin.

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