Housing Remains On Solid Ground In August with Moderate Gains Expected In Existing Home Sales According to Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast

Auction.com Model Projects August Sales to Come in at 5.64 Million Units (SAAR);
Median Sales Price falls to $230,666

IRVINE AND SILICON VALLEY, Calif. – September 1, 2015 - Auction.com, LLC, the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace, has released its latest Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast which projects that existing home sales for the month of August will fall between seasonally adjusted annual rates of 5.46 and 5.86 million annual sales, with a targeted number of 5.64 million – up 1 percent from July and 12.9 percent from a year ago, the strongest year-over-year gain in nearly two years.

“We may be looking at the beginning of a shift in existing home sales activity,” said Auction.com Executive Vice President Rick Sharga. “The volume of sales, while continuing to increase, appears to be slowing down. And home prices, which have consistently appreciated over the past few years, may finally be leveling off.”

Earlier this month, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR®) released its existing home sales data for July, reporting that home sales were at 5.59 million units, up 10.3 percent year-over-year and in line with Auction.com’s nowcast point estimate of 5.57 million units – a prediction that beat the consensus estimate calling for a 1.6 percent decline to 5.40 million units. “Limited inventory of homes for sale – especially entry level homes for first-time home buyers – will make it hard for the market to reach higher numbers in 2015,” Sharga noted. “This is true for both existing home sales and new home sales, where inventory is improving, but still near a 40-year low.”

NAR also reported a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase in median existing home prices July to $234,000, just 5.1 percent off of the peak level and up nearly 36 percent from the trough. This number was well within the range of $227,170 and $251,082 that Auction.com predicted last month. Findings from the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast suggest that sales prices for existing homes will fall between $219,132 and $242,199 in the month of August, with a targeted price of $230,666. This represents a 1.4 percent month-over-month decrease, but a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase for the month.

About the Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast Model

The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends as they are occurring – weeks before the findings of other benchmark studies are released. Building upon the groundbreaking work by Google Chief Economist Hal Varian, Auction.com’s nowcast model extends a traditional autoregressive-forecasting model to incorporate contemporaneous information that provides significantly enhanced accuracy.

Auction.com will occasionally update its nowcast as fresh data provides additional signals for current home sales activity. The Auction.com Real Estate Nowcast model has proven highly accurate over the course of 2014 and into 2015.

Existing Home Sales

Month

Reported Existing Home Sales

(in millions)

Auction.com Point Estimate

(SAR in millions)

Auction.com Predicted Range

(SAR in millions)

July 2014

5.07

5.11

4.99 – 5.22

August 2014

5.00

5.19

5.09 – 5.30

September 2014

5.10

5.08

4.91 – 5.24

October 2014

5.16

5.13

4.96 – 5.30

November 2014

4.95

5.16

4.99 – 5.33

December 2014

5.07

5.03

4.85 – 5.21

January 2015

4.82

5.01

4.83 – 5.19

February 2015

4.89

5.03

4.87 – 5.19

March 2015

5.19

5.06

4.90 - 5.22

April 2015

5.04

5.33

5.16 – 5.50

May 2015

5.32

5.31

5.14 – 5.48

June 2015

5.48

5.53

5.35 – 5.71

July 2015

5.59

5.56

5.38 – 5.74

August 2015

TBD

5.64

5.46 – 5.82

Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com

Existing Home Sales Pricing

Month

Reported Existing Home Price

YoY % Change

Auction.com Point Estimate

YoY % Change

Auction.com Predicted Range

July 2014

$221,600

4.3%

$219,381

3.3%

$208,412 - $230,350

August 2014

$218,400

4.1%

$219,148

4.5%

$208,190 - $230,105

September 2014

$209,100

5.3%

$214,433

8%

$203,712 - $225,155

October 2014

$207,500

5.1%

$205,922

4.3%

$195,626 - $216,218

November 2014

$207,200

6%

$204,204

4.5%

$193,993 - $214,414

December 2014

$208,200

5.3%

$205,783

4.1%

$195,493 - $216,072

January 2015

$197,600

5.2%

$205,126

9.2%

$194,869 - $215,382

February 2015

$201,900

7.2%

$201,077

6.7%

$191,023 - $211,131

March 2015

$210,700

7.1%

$204,165

3.8%

$193,956 - $214,373

April 2015

$219,400

8.9%

$211,633

5%

$201,052 - $222,215

May 2015

$228,700

7.9%

$220,799

4.2%

$209,759 - $231,839

June 2015

$236,400

6.5%

$228,929

3.1%

$222,098 - $245,477

July 2015

$234,000

5.6%

$239,126

7.7%

$227,170 - $251,082

August 2015

TBD

TBD

$230,666

5.6%

$219,132 - $242,199

Sources: Google, NAR, Auction.com

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About Auction.com:

Auction.com, LLC, is the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace. Founded in 2007, the company has sold over $30 billion in residential and commercial real estate assets. Auction.com has over 900 employees and headquarters in Irvine and Silicon Valley, California as well as offices in Austin and Plano, Texas, Atlanta, Denver, New York and Miami. Visit www.auction.com for more information.