Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1932/1933 - 'Cavalcade' | The film, starring Clive Brook and Diana Wynyard, touched on historic events like the sinking of the Titanic and the death of Queen Victoria in a look at Londoners from 1899 through 1933.
Photofest

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1934 - 'It Happened One Night' | Clark Gable and Claudette Colbert both won Academy Awards for their performances in this romantic comedy about a spoiled heiress who runs away and into the path of a reporter looking for a story.
Sony Home Entertainment

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1981 - 'Chariots of Fire' | Ian Charleson stars in this film about British track athletes training for the 1924 Olympics.
Warner Bros.

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1982 - 'Gandhi' | Ben Kingsley, center (with Roshan Seth at left), won the best-actor Oscar for his role as the Indian leader.
Columbia Pictures

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1983 - 'Terms of Endearment' | Shirley MacLaine, left, Debra Winger and Jack Nicholson were all nominated for their roles. MacLaine beat out Winger for best actress while Nicholson took home another best-actor award.
Paramount Pictures

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1984 - 'Amadeus' | Tom Hulce was nominated for best actor but lost to his co-star, F. Murray Abraham.
Phil Bray, Orion Pictures

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

1985 - 'Out of Africa' | Meryl Streep was nominated for best actress for her performance.
Universal Pictures

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2009 - 'The Hurt Locker' | Jeremy Renner, pictured, received a best-actor nomination but did not win. The film, however, won six Oscars, and Kathryn Bigelow became the first woman to win an Oscar for directing.
Summit Entertainment

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2010 - 'The King's Speech' | Colin Firth, left, won the Oscar for best actor while Geoffrey Rush received a best supporting actor nomination.
Laurie Sparham, The Weinstein Co.

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2011 – 'The Artist' | Jean Dujardin won the Oscar for best actor while Berenice Bejo received a best supporting actress nomination. The (mostly) silent film won a total of five Academy Awards.
The Weinstein Co.

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2012 - 'Argo' | Ben Affleck produced, directed and starred in this best picture based on the real-life rescue of American embassy workers in Iran in 1980.
Claire Folger, Warner Bros.

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2013 - '12 Years A Slave' | Lupita Nyong'o won the best supporting actress Oscar while Chiwetel Ejiofor received a best actor nomination for his performance in this wrenching drama based on the memoir of former slave Solomon Northup.
Francois Duhamel, Fox Searchlight

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2014 - 'Birdman' | The film was nominated for nine Oscars; Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu won best director and star Michael Keaton was nominated for best actor.
Atsushi Nishijima, Fox Searchlight

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2015 - 'Spotlight' | The real-life story of how 'The Boston Globe' uncovered the Catholic Church child molestation scandal was nominated for six Oscars, with supporting acting nominations for Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams (center).
Kerry Hayes, AP

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

2016 - 'Moonlight' | In the wildest Oscar ending ever, 'La La Land' was erroneously announced as best picture. But in reality, the vote went to 'Moonlight,' the coming-of-age drama starring Mahershala Ali (left) and Alex Hibbert. The film won three Oscars, including best supporting actor for Ali and screenplay for director Barry Jenkins.
David Bornfriend, A24

Every Oscar best-picture winner, ever

Here's a look back at Oscar's 89 best pictures. 1927/1928 - 'Wings' | Richard Arlen, Clara Bow and Charles "Buddy" Rogers star in the first Academy Award best-picture winner, a silent film. The 90th Academy Awards will be held March 4.

The trouble with the media, critics say, is that we treat everything like a horse race.

Politics especially — our coverage of candidates becomes more about who’s surging or falling in polls.

You can make the same complaint about how we cover other things. The Academy Awards, for instance. This time of year — a lot of the year, actually — it’s less about quality and more about who’s going to win. It’s a fair complaint, I suppose.

Yet here I am, doing my part to contribute. Yes, it’s time for the ever-popular annual who will win/should win examination of the Oscars. It’s fun because it allows you to go with your head and your heart. Everybody wins!

Actually, that’s not true. Only one in each category do. Here’s who will win, and who ought to.

There’s also some feeling that “The Shape of Water” might win, but “Three Billboards” simply has built too much momentum in the preceding awards. (No best-director nomination, true, but it’s taking just about everything else.) “Lady Bird” is, quite simply, the better film, achieving everything director Greta Gerwig set out to do. There’s a notion that the actors’ bloc of voters could swing it to Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” (he’s an actor, after all), but I don’t see it. I’d like to, though.

BEST ACTRESS

Don’t misunderstand: McDormand is great, like she always is, capturing real pain and rage as a grieving mother. But Ronan was better. Her performance as a high-school senior flailing about in her attempt to get out of Sacramento is the most fully realized of a strong bunch. Streep is always a possibility, but this year, she really deserves to be. But McDormand is picking up too many pre-Oscar accolades to go home empty-handed.

This has been Oldman’s since the minute he appeared on the screen as Winston Churchill. Oldman is a terrific actor, and he’s terrific here — but so is his makeup and his manner. He captures Churchill, but Chalamet captures something else. It’s a wholly original character, a teenager finding first, head-over-heels real love in an unexpected place. And yes, what everyone says is true: that final scene, wow. Day-Lewis is great, always, and he’s said this is his last role, so maybe he’ll get some support. But Chalamet is fantastic.

Gary Oldman stars in "Darkest Hour."(Photo: Working Title Films)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalfe, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

WILL WIN: Janney

SHOULD WIN: Metcalfe

WILD CARD: Blige

Janney used to collect Emmys for “The West Wing” like they were Bed, Bath & Beyond coupons. And she’s won seemingly everything there is to win leading up to the Oscars for her broadly comic portrayal of Tonya Harding’s monstrous mother. She’s plenty good, but Metcalfe is great as the struggling, constantly disappointed but fiercely loyal mother in “Lady Bird.” Blige was really good, but will voters recognize a performance in a Netflix movie?

I sort of hate making this pick — Rockwell is my favorite living actor. But his redemption arc is a little too pat in “Three Billboards.” Dafoe, meanwhile — once the front-runner, if we’re going with the horse-race metaphor — was deeply layered as the manager of a run-down motel, tough but empathetic. And it was nice to see him play the good guy for a change. Plummer stepped in for the disgraced Kevin Spacey at the last minute — after the last minute, actually — on “All the Money in the World.” He’s really good, and a vote for him could be seen as a vote for the #MeToo and #TimesUp movements. But Rockwell, like almost all things “Billboards,” has been winning everything in sight.

You can certainly say that “The Shape of Water” is wholly the vision of its director — it’s exactly what del Toro’s insanely creative mind dreamed up, right there on the screen. I know I’m coming off as something of a “Lady Bird” apologist, but I thought Gerwig showed a greater connection with her actors, giving the film an authentic feel (and it’s a deceptively beautiful film). Nolan’s command of the medium is again on display, both in the way he put “Dunkirk” together and his customary realistic feel (he eschews computer-generated images whenever possible). But del Toro is the smart pick here.

Michael Shannon (left) and Michael Stuhlbarg star in "The Shape of Water."(Photo: Photo by Kerry Hayes)