Putting The Marlies Success into an NHL Context

There isn’t just the one single foolproof method for building a successful hockey team. If there were, then everyone would follow that blueprint to a fault until it became outdated and someone ultimately came up with a new one to chase. While the NHL may be a copycat league, if everyone’s doing the exact same thing then it becomes awfully difficult to distinguish yourself from the pack. The key is to follow a couple of fundamental Do’s and Don’ts. Beyond that, it’s up to you to get creative.

The ultimate goal is to assemble as much talent as possible, by any means necessary. Ideally in a way that makes sense in the big picture with all of the pieces fitting together, but that only really comes into the scope after a certain point once you’ve already cleared a few hurdles. Spending big money on a big name from time to time can certainly put your incumbent collection of talent over the top, but the salary cap structure makes it inherently impossible to purely buy your way into success in terms of wins and losses.

That’s why we see the savvy teams take a patient approach, accumulating as many draft picks and prospects as possible over a length period of time understanding that not every single one will wind up hitting. Beyond just the raw number of assets, you’ll also need a couple of them to be of the very high-end variety. Those players typically come as a byproduct of a lot losing.

It’s easy to sit back and tell a team to take those lumps on a nightly basis for the greater good when you’re looking at it from afar, without a personal stake in the matter. It’s a whole other thing to be deeply entrenched in the process and still follow through with it properly while juggling a million other extenuating factors that make it difficult to stay true to the course along the way.

Fortunately for Leafs fans, the new brain trust in Toronto appears to be fully cognizant of that, and also appears to be up to the task. While the parent club hasn’t done much winning this season, you don’t have to look far to see the seeds that are being planted. It’s happening right in the Leafs’ backyard, with the Toronto Marlies.

For anyone that’s been paying any attention, the Marlies have been the best hockey ticket in Toronto through the first two months and change of the season. That’s entirely by design, with the organization ushering in a new era as some of the guys that will one day hopefully be contributors in the Maple Leafs blue-and-white cut their teeth in pro hockey with repeated reps at the AHL level.

The AHL tracks statistics back to their 2005-06 season, providing us with 10 full seasons worth of data to work with. I went back and compiled a list of the most dominant teams not just in the standings, but maybe more importantly in terms of goal differential and offensive proficiency during that stretch of time (note: I prorated the numbers to per-80 games because the league transitioned from an 80 game schedule to the current 76 game schedule in ’11-’12).

Team

Points/80 Games

Goals For/80 Games

Goal Differential

15-16 Toronto Marlies

124*

314*

119*

09-10 Hershey Bears

123

342

144

11-12 Norfolk Admirals

119

287

98

09-10 Hamilton Bulldogs

115

271

89

06-07 Hershey Bears

114

305

86

13-14 Texas Stars

112

288

81

06-07 Chicago Wolves

101

331

79

10-11 WBS Penguins

117

261

78

05-06 Grand Rapids Griffins

115

323

76

14-15 Grand Rapids Griffins

105

262

76

07-08 Chicago Wolves

110

300

74

07-08 Providence Bruins

117

280

74

05-06 WBS Penguins

113

249

71

07-08 Hartford Wolfpack

110

266

68

14-15 Manchester Monarchs

115

254

68

05-06 Portland Pirates

114

306

65

08-09 WBS Penguins

104

274

62

08-09 Hamilton Bulldogs

102

263

62

06-07 Manchester Monarchs

110

242

60

13-14 Manchester Monarchs

111

257

59

08-09 Hershey Bears

106

296

56

13-14 St.John’s IceCaps

104

272

54

13-14 Grand Rapids Griffins

104

251

54

12-13 Springfield Falcons

104

247

52

05-06 Hartford Wolfpack

104

292

51

13-14 Chicago Wolves

105

252

51

08-09 Manitoba Moose

107

239

51

09-10 Chicago Wolves

105

264

50

12-13 Syracuse Crunch

102

260

48

13-14 Binghamton Senators

101

291

46

06-07 Norfolk Admirals

108

301

44

07-08 Toronto Marlies

109

246

43

10-11 Portland Pirates

103

280

42

12-13 Providence Bruins

111

234

41

*on-pace for

Teams like the Chicago Wolves (each incarnation aside from the most recent ’13-’14 squad) provide a good reminder that context is important. Those veteran-laden squads excelled in large part because of contribution from AAAA lifers like the Brett Sterlings and Darren Haydars of the world. Heck, a 47-year old Chris Chelios was putting up numbers in for the ’09-’10 Wolves. That’s of little use to the parent club.

For the most part, though, a lot of these teams that dominated the AHL wound up shortly thereafter graduating a handful of legitimate NHLers that went on to help the parent club.

That Hershey Bears squad at the top boasted the likes of Mathieu Perreault, Jay Beagle, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, and a combination of Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth in net. That Norfolk team that won 28 straight games had all three of ‘The Triplets’ on it, to go along with guys like Richard Panik, Cory Conacher, Radko Gudas and Mark Barberio to name a few. The ’09-’10 Hamilton Bulldogs were led by PK Subban, David Desharnais, Yannick Weber, and Max Pacioretty (before he was called up). The Red Wings are known for putting their young talent through an apprenticeship program in Grand Rapids, and the best single season crop that passed through there in ’05 included Hudler, Kopecky, Filppula, Quincey, and had Jimmy Howard between the pipes. Look at this absurd collection of talent Chicago’s AHL affiliate had during the ’06-’07 season, before any of them became the household names they are right now. The list goes on and on.

Back to the Toronto Marlies who are currently sitting atop the AHL standings in points, goals scored, and goal differential with video game-like totals… Anything even remotely resembling the staggering numbers they’re currently on pace for by the end of the season would solidify them as one of the best AHL teams we’ve seen in the past decade.

With a nice complement of young prospects like William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, Connor Brown and Brendan Leipsic being supplemented with veterans like MArcobello, TJ Brennan (both of whom are clearly too good for this level of competition, but haven’t been able to nail down jobs in the NHL) and reliable goaltending it’s easy to see why they’ve been lighting the world on fire at such a staggering rate.

What’ll be fascinating to monitor is what the Leafs decide to do with those guys moving forward as even more reinforcements make themselves available over the next few seasons. For example, Dmytro Timashov and Jeremy Bracco could join the Marlies next year, while Travis Dermott will be AHL eligible the following year.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the jump here from point A to point B is a sizeable and potentially treacherous one. While the AHL is a good breeding ground for talent, success there hardly guarantees future success at the next level. And even if it does happen, it takes a couple of years.

Still, there’s a professional Toronto-based team playing some tremendous hockey right now. That’s a good start.

I agree it is a great article. Lack of depth in the system is a major weakness of a lot of NHL teams. One or two injuries can quickly send a team into a fatal tailspin.

Take Montreal,(please) two injuries and they have now lost 5 of their last 6 games. (Don’t worry, Be happy).

As for the folks who are suggesting the Leafs should tank for a few years, I say this;

“Where have you been for the last 10 years”. We have been at the bottom of the tank.

We made the playoffs only once in the lockout year, before we ran out of gas.

During the ten year period only three players the Leafs drafted are on the team. Komarov(ten years ago-6th round), Kadri ( 7 years ago -1st round, and Rielly(4 years ago -1st round. Boyes was drafted 15 years ago.

I am optimistic for the future. Building a strong AHL team has always been a great strategy.

PS – Gordie Bombay mentioned Dermott. and Andrew Nielsen. I think we will see both of these guys on the Leaf roster a lot sooner than expected.

how? don’t they have to be 20 years old? I think they can play in the Calder playoffs this year and next year because they signed their elc but they have to be 20 to play in the ahl, go back to the ohl/whl for their draft +2 year or the nhl. timashov is a late 96 birthday so he’ll be 20 next year so that’s why he’s eligible for the ahl next year or he can go back to the q but it’s clear he’s outgrown it already.

Dimitri talks about how “veteran-laden squads” should be taken into context for the team’s success, I’m just wondering if the Marlies should fall under that category as well.

Besides William Nylander who’s totally lighting it up, it looks like the older players are driving the bus. The top 5 scorers besides Nylander, is Joshua Leivo age 22, Richard Panik age 24, T.J. Brennan age 26 and Mark Arcobello age 27. At those ages, making the NHL and being a regular is so much more difficult and you really shouldn’t be too excited about their scoring.

As for the rest of the younger prospects, their point production seems rather pedestrian with their avg points per game being: Kappanen 0.58, Gauthier 0.41, Connor Brown 0.5, and Leipsic 0.61. These all seem like fairly average numbers.

I’m pretty sure Nylander will be an NHL star, but that’s based off his point production and age, not really the success of the team. I just feel that it’s safer to judge a prospect’s chance of success based on their individual production, rather than the success as a team.