Avila: Tigers Won’t Exceed Luxury Tax Line In 2018

While the Tigers’ efforts to streamline their roster may not have advanced much this offseason — a scenario that was contemplated at the outset — that doesn’t mean the plan has changed for the years to come. As Anthony Fench of the Detroit Free-Press reports, GM Al Avila says his organization will not continue its current spending levels past the 2017 season.

“Our situation, really, it’s a tough situation,” said Avila. “Everybody’s looked at our payroll, and it’s over $200 million. This will be the second year we’re going over the luxury tax; we certainly are not going to go over the luxury tax for a third year.”

As the veteran baseball executive explained, it’s not just a matter of the team spending “above its means,” as Avila put it last October. There’s also the matter of the new CBA, which would impose a 50% tax on any spending over the luxury tax line of $197MM.

All told, it’s hardly surprising to hear this stance. Detroit has signaled for some time now that a broader shift in approach is in the works, with the organization unable to continue spending near the very top of the league and the current competitive window narrowing.

The biggest future payroll questions, though, are largely out of Detroit’s hands. Outfielder Justin Upton has the right to opt out of his contract following the 2017 season, but he’ll likely need to improve upon his 2016 performance quite a bit in order to pass up the $88.5MM he’d stand to earn from 2018-21. And any possible trades involving highly paid veterans Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Jordan Zimmermann would be contingent upon approval from the players, all of whom have full no-trade protection (though Zimmermann’s full protection turns to partial protection after 2018). Upton has a twenty-team no-trade clause.

Yes but assuming Upton has a break out season is highly unlikely. There won’t be too many teams willing to pay that chunk of money for him.. 31 Home runs matched his career high, his average was down from switching leagues. I’d be very surprised to see him go

You’re kidding yourself if you think Upton is opting out. The guy is a perennial under achiever. You guys are stuck with him for the length of that contract, doubt anyone would give him something better.

Exactly, I think he’ll have a few good seasons, he is still young yet. But not too many clubs are willing to pay that chunk. It would be a huge paycut for him to go anywhere. That’s the only drawback of signing huge contracts

I think you’re rushing Gerber and Stewart. Surprised you haven’t added Hill for CF, but I guess he’s currently not the flavor of the month. Players more likely to be filling positions at that time are Tyler Collins, Mikee Mahtook, and Stephen Moya. I agree that there is potential for a trade of Iglesias, as Machado can do the job defensively, so he shouldn’t be forgotten. Add Buck Farmer to your bullpen mix.

I think they could easily trade Cabrera. You can’t compare the A’s to the Tigers like that. A’s were running away with the west and took a calculated risk, Indians look far too strong for the Tigers to be in a similar position.

Yes they are Mr. Flash. The Tigers oraganization has been a dead man walking since the 2013 ALCS Game 2 debacle. After that season is when the reboot, retool, rebuild or whatever one wishes to call it should have begun.. Their MLB asserts were at the highest value and the core went as far as it could. Instead we have gotten 4 years of a zombie like existence and 4 years further from a championship.

The Tigers missed by ONE WHOLE GAME last year. If healthy (which is always a big if for every team) they should be better. The Tigers have sold far more tickets and set themselves up for a much bigger TV contract than your rebuild would have accomplished. The reality of the business side of baseball is what will determine those long term payrolls for future teams. When looking at it from a Fantasy perspective, its so nice to second guess. I am expecting them to contend AGAIN. Since the hiring of Jim Leyland in 2006, no team has been as successful. That’s 11 consecutive years of high expectations. And you think they are doing things wrong!

Winning takes care of selling tickets. And unless I somehow missed that Woodward parade, then yes, the Tigers organization is doing it wrong. The Tigers have been at Comerica Park for 17 seasons and yet to have crafted a roster that plays to the park. Those 11 glorious seasons you mention all ended spectacularly bad and showed what flawed rosters the Tigers were burdened with.

As MLB baseball in general has becoming more and more efficient with MLB roster construction, valuing prospects and with the drafting process, the Tigers have been stubbornly anti-efficient. They always overreact, particularly when venturing into the free agent market, often bidding only against themselves.

Let’s not fool ourselves here. The Tigers didn’t make significant roster moves not because they want to please us with an 85 win season, but instead there wasn’t much interest in their old and very expensive dimishing assests. The way this offseason’s played out is proof of that. Slow, plodding, one dimensional players are 2017 inefficiency, and the Tigers roster is full of these type of players.

Upton had almost the same numbers as Cespedes, who got 4/$110MM. If he performs at his career average or better, he should be able to get at least 4/$100MM. Could also get a 5-6 year deal with opt out as well. It will all depend on where he thinks Detroit is going in 2018 and beyond. If I remember correctly,the 2018 FA class has several OF but Upton and JD would rank in the top 5 as sluggers. Detroit will be able to pick up 1 or 2 veteran OF from that class if necessary and/or try to keep JD if Upton walks.

I think teams perceive Cespedes as a difference maker. I don’t think J-Up is thought of the same way, which is why he wont get as much. But I still hope he opts out after having a fantastic season, freeing up the money for JD.

I wasn’t impressed with him in the field either, but the numbers show him as being an average fielder. I’m baffled as to why he rated that way and JD was rated so poorly. The eye test says they are similar and that JD has the better arm. Oh well.

That brings up an interesting point. Upton and JD are very similar players and ages. The questions are: If Upton and JD perform the same in 2017, would the Tigers be able to sign JD for the same 4/$88.5MM left in Uptons’s contract? If,as some believe, Upton cannot get a better deal than his current one,why should we think JD can? What would be better for the team? I know the fans love JD,but Upton is signed and JD will be on the market come November.

The worst WRC+ JD has had since he got to Detroit was 137. Upton has only had 1 season in his entire career that he was that good, and that was back in 2011. He was only 5% better than the average hitter last year. He could rebound and still opt out, but JD is a much better hitter at this point.

Tigers will get a pick for JD, right? Just not the pick belonging to the the signing team. If you believe in miracles, perhaps Stephen Moya will learn to play the outfield between now and Spring 2018. At present he’s even money not to even touch a fly ball….can’t hide him anywhere.

Tigers are definitely in a spot. This season is the final possible competitive year with aging vets and the impending loss of JD. They are also going to be heavily reliant on a healthy Zimmerman (who could very well be done for good, he has recently stated he still has neck issues) and a return to form for Sanchez (although I can’t believe the guy could become that bad without masking a lingering injury. If so, it may or may not have healed so he’s a huge question mark).

If things aren’t looking great come deadline, JD is long gone, they’ll have no choice on Kinsler to get value, Iglesias would go, K-Rod & Wilson for sure, and they’ll probably try getting Verlander out of there too. The farm is barren. New CB will make deadline deals way more likely. Gotta still fill some seats, Cabrera could be the guy who has to “take one for the team” and play through some garbage seasons as the face of the franchise. If Upton has a monster season (doubtful), he may be a trade candidate as well, with the assuming team potentially renting him or he agreed to stick around with new team if he doesn’t want to gamble with $88mm. Stuck with V-Mart, hopefully he’s got 2 decent seasons left in him, probably not.. OF will be atrocious for at least 2-3 years.

Avila is working his way towards being fired by end of 2019 if the prospects he trades for disappoint.

Have to agree that, right now, its looking like the last year for contending. Still, you definitely paint a glass half empty picture. They do have a nice young rotation to build around. Usually, its the pitching that’s the last to take shape in a rebuild. They just filled CF with a young 1st round pick, Mikee Mahtook, that may surprise (long shot). Collins could become a Bobby Higginson type. They look to have an abundance of relief pitching coming up. Avila will have a difficult job, finishing the rebuild that DD started, while cutting budget. Doubt that he will only be given 2 years to accomplish that task..