NOAA: Sunspot is harbinger of new solar cycle, increasing risk for electrical systems

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A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions, showed signs it was on its way late Thursday when the cycleâ€™s first sunspot appeared in the sunâ€™s Northern Hemisphere, NOAA scientists said.

A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it
increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and
airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM
transactions, showed signs it was on its way late Thursday when the
cycleâ€™s first sunspot appeared in the sunâ€™s Northern Hemisphere, NOAA
scientists said.

â€œThis sunspot is like the first robin of
spring,â€ said solar physicist Douglas Biesecker of NOAAâ€™s Space Weather
Prediction Center. â€œIn this case, itâ€™s an early omen of solar storms
that will gradually increase over the next few years.â€

A
sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface
of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected
to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms
reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur
at any time.

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During a solar storm, highly charged material
ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring down
power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten astronauts
with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial
communications satellites and swamp Global Positioning System signals.
Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money
from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe.

â€œOur
growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies
means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the
past,â€ said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary
of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. â€œNOAAâ€™s
space weather monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nationâ€™s
ability to function smoothly during solar disturbances.â€

Last
April, in coordination with an international panel of solar experts,
NOAA issued a forecast that Solar Cycle 24 would start in March 2008,
plus or minus six months. The panel was evenly split between those
predicting a strong or weak cycle. Both camps agree that the sooner the
new cycle takes over the waning previous cycle, the more likely that it
will be a strong season with many sunspots and major storms, said
Biesecker. Many more sunspots with Solar Cycle 24 traits must emerge
before scientists consider the new cycle dominant, with the potential
for more frequent storms.

The new sunspot, identified as
#10,981, is the latest visible spot to appear since NOAA began
numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude location at 27
degrees North, and its negative polarity leading to the right in the
Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle, according
to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new solar
cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle
continue to form closer to the equator.

SWPC is the nationâ€™s
first alert for solar activity and its affects on Earth. The centerâ€™s
space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar
â€œseasonâ€ and warn of individual storms occurring on the Sun that could
impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAAâ€™s nine National Centers for
Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of the
International Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11
member nations.