McCarthy, 25, goes into the race — not yet won by an Australian — in solid form.

He finished second in the national championships and was the only rider to — initially — follow Richie Porte’s searing Willunga Hill attack in the Tour Down Under.

McCarthy was ninth in the last year’s Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, finishing with the lead group

“This race suits me and I’m going to be there in the final, there’s no question,” he said. “Without incidents during the race, I know I’ve definitely got the shape.

Jay McCarthy is one of the main contenders for the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. Picture: Yuri KouzminSource:News Corp Australia

“I went into TDU with podium ambitions and I think I could have achieved that, but on Willunga I decided to go all-in and see if I could actually follow Richie.

“Yeah, I exploded, but I’m happy I gave it a go and the team were happy to see me go all-in, as well, even if it would have looked better with a higher GC (General Classification) finish.”

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With the peerless Sagan the constant go-to man in Europe, McCarthy said these were the races in which he had a chance.

“I feel I’m getting stronger each year, but with the guys I have in my team there’s not a whole lot of opportunity for me during the season,” he said.

“These ones you have to make count and I’m looking forward to it. With luck coming my way, I’ve shown over the last couple of weeks that I’m in good condition.”

McCarthy winning the Subaru Criterium in Noosa last November.Source:Supplied

McCarthy has a strong teammate in 2016 winner Kennaugh, who he is confident can make the difference in a race that’s proved to be wildly unpredictable.

“It’s tricky because a lot of riders can survive, but I’m hoping it’s an aggressive race and it’s a smaller group coming to the finish,” McCarthy said.

“Peter has won it before and, coming out of a support role at Tour Down Under and with a week’s rest behind him, he’s another good shot.

“I came into the final last year just by myself so there was a lot I had to watch, but having an extra rider there could make a difference.

“I think we’ve raced always hard into the final lap and with those kickers (climbs), if you can get a good gap and there’s some hesitation behind, a small group can definitely get there (to the finish).

“Our team is well behind what I can do and in Pete we’ve got a couple of cards to play.

“The breakaway is something everyone is attentive to. There’s no one asleep because it can either put your team on front foot, the back foot or completely out of the bike race.

“The whole thing is a gentle give and take.

“As far as out team is concerned, the breakaway is something we will have to watch and if it’s too big the best way to kill it is to join it and then do nothing.

“When it becomes uncooperative it has the tendency to come back, or you’re in a good position because one of your guys can potentially be fresh for later.”

2. CROSSWINDS AT THIRTEENTH BEACH/BREAMLEA

440km

“The likelihood of the race splitting is pretty low, I think.

“But if it happens, it’s more likely a European team tries. If you see Team Sunweb or Lotto NL-Jumbo moving to the front before a corner, that’s when you say to yourself, ‘They might be trying something here’.

“Normally when everyone is nervous and awake to it in this part of the course you can’t catch anyone out. “And what do you when you’re away? Do you ride those finishing circuits three times and expect to still have somebody for the final?

“All a team can do is make the race really hard before the circuits and for some teams that will be their aim, more than anything.

“They’ll be trying to eliminate the pure sprinters who will have a harder time getting over the climbs the second and third time if they’re already tired for the first one.”

3. CHALLAMBRA CRESCENT CLIMB/ FINISHING CIRCUITS

100km-plus

“Richie Porte is super explosive on short climbs, definitely. But this is a very short climb. It doesn’t put anyone into such a debt that all of a sudden it becomes a climbers’ bike race.

“Guys can muscle their way to the top because it’s not a long climb. Power to weight (ratio) doesn’t matter on this climb; it’s pure power.

“Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans, myself — that’s what we do. The climbers are scared of us and they’re the ones trying to make the race hard and to drop us. “But it actually only helps us because it drops all the real sprinters that we can’t beat and it can put us into the front of the race.”

4. GEELONG WATERFRONT

Final 2km

“We won’t know until the closing kilometres, and even then you might get someone who surprises with a really late attack.

“What has happened in the last quarter of the race? Who goes? Who chases? Who still has guys left?

“It can be a complicated race. Every year it’s different, with different players and different teams with different resources.