Mars One's original concept included launching a robotic lander and orbiter as early as 2016 to be followed by a human crew of four in 2022. Organizers plan for the crew to be selected from applicants who paid an administrative fee, to become the first permanent residents of Mars with no plan of returning to Earth. Partial funding options include a proposed reality television program documenting the journey. In February 2015, the primary contractors on the initial pre-Phase A contracts had completed all studies paid for by Mars One at that time.[11] The current state of the Mission Plan Deliverables (either in the form of Studies or actual Hardware) will be tracked in Table 2 in the Technology section.

History

The concept for Mars One began in 2011 with discussions between the two founders, Bas Lansdorp and Arno Wielders.[12]

The Mars One project has no connection with Inspiration Mars, a similarly-timed project to send a married couple on a Mars flyby and return them to Earth over a period of 500 days.[13]

Initial mission concept

Mars One publicly announced the concept in May 2012 for a one-way trip to Mars, with the intention of an initial robotic precursor mission in 2020 and transporting the first human colonists to Mars in 2024.[14] In a 2015 debate, Bas Lansdrop clarified that "we’re not going to do, I think, the current design of the mission" and "Mars One's goal is not to send humans to Mars in 2027 with a $6 billion budget and 14 launches. Our goal is to send humans to Mars, period."[15] According to Mars One's website, "It is Mars One's goal to establish a permanent human settlement on Mars."[16]

The autonomous rovers will begin settlement assembly and operations. The Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) is planned to have produced a breathable atmosphere of 0.7 bar pressure, 3000 liters of water, 240 kg of oxygen, which will be stored for later use, in the habitat.

2022

2026

A proposed SpaceX Falcon Heavy would launch with the first group of four colonists.[20]

2023

2027

The first colonists were to arrive on Mars in a notional modified Dragon capsule.

2.^ Work on robotic missions was completed pending further review and future contract direction in February 2015.[11]

4.^ SpaceX has no contracts with MarsOne and the project does not appear on their launch manifest.[23]

5. Initial Plan has slipped 2 times, with a 2 year delay each time. (As of 5 February 2016) [24]

History

In December 2013, Mars One announced its concept of a robotic pencil mission in 2018, two years later than had been conceptually planned in the 2012 announcements. The robotic lander would be "built by Lockheed Martin based on the design used for NASA's Phoenix and InSight missions, as well as a communications orbiter built by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd."[25] In February 2015, Lockheed Martin and Surrey Satellite Technology confirmed that contracts on the initial study phase begun in late 2013 had run out and additional contracts had not been received for further progress on the robotic missions. Plans have been disclosed to raise the US$200 million or more needed to support the initial robotic mission,[11][25] but some critics do not find the economic plans to raise money from private investors and exclusive broadcasting rights to be sufficient to support the initial, or follow-on, mission(s).

Mars One selected a second-round pool of astronaut candidates in 2013 of 1058 people—"586 men and 472 women from 107 countries"—from a larger number of 202,586 who initially showed interest on the Mars One website, although this number is heavily disputed. Former Mars One candidate Dr. Joseph Roche claims the number of initial applicants was only 2,761,[26] which Mars One later conceded via YouTube video.[27]

Mars One announced a partnership with Uwingu on 3 March 2014, stating that the program would use Uwingu's map of Mars in all of their planned missions.[28][29]Kristian von Bengtson began work on Simulation Mars Home for crew on 24 March 2014.

The second-round pool was whittled down to 705 candidates (418 men and 287 women) in the beginning of May 2014. 353 were removed due to personal considerations.[30] After the medical physical requirement, which was similar to a normal FAA exam plus EKG, due either to financial, health or access reasons, only 660 candidates remained.[27] Notably, some applicants were notified of life-threatening conditions such as early-stage cancer and were able to immediately begin treatment.[31] These selected persons will then begin the interview process following which several teams of two men and two women will be compiled. The teams will then begin training full-time for a potential future mission to Mars, while individuals and teams may be selected out during training if they are not deemed suitable for the mission.[30]

On June 2, 2014, Darlow Smithson Productions (DSP) announced it has gained exclusive access to Mars One.[32]

On June 30, 2014, it was made public that Mars One seeks financial investment through a bidding process to send company experiments to Mars. The experiment slots will go to the highest bidder and will include company-related ads, and the opportunity to have the company name on the robotic lander that is proposed to carry the experiments to Mars in 2018.[33]

Mars One selected a third-round pool of astronaut candidates in 2015 of 100 people — "50 men and 50 women who successfully passed the second round. The candidates come from all around the world, namely 39 from the Americas, 31 from Europe, 16 from Asia, 7 from Africa, and 7 from Oceania".

In a video posted on 19 of March 2015, Lansdorp said that because of delays in the robotic precursor mission, the first crew will not set down on Mars until 2027.[34] In August 2015, Lansdorp reiterated that their 12-year plan for landing humans on Mars by 2027 is subject to constant improvement and updates.[35]

Mission proposals

According to their schedule as of March 2015, the first crew of four astronauts would arrive on Mars in 2027, after a seven-month journey from Earth. Additional teams would join the settlement every two years, with the intention that by 2035 there would be over twenty people living and working on Mars.[citation needed] The astronaut selection process began on 22 April 2013.[36]

As of July 2015[update], the fourth round astronaut selection process, planned for Sept 2016, by which Mars One will choose six teams of four out of the 100 people selected in the third round, was announced.[37]

2020 unmanned lander mission

Artist's impression of the Phoenix spacecraft as it lands on Mars.

In December 2013, mission concept studies for an unmanned Mars mission were contracted with Lockheed Martin and Surrey Satellite Technology for a demonstration mission to be launched in 2017 and land on Mars in 2018. It would be based on the design of the successful 2007 NASAPhoenix lander,[38] and provide proof of concept for a subset of the key technologies for a later permanent human settlement on Mars.[39] Upon submission of Lockheed Martin's Proposal Information Package,[38] Mars One released a Request for Proposals[40] for the various payloads on the lander. The total payload mass of 44 kg is divided among the seven payloads as follows:[40]

Water extraction (10 kg)

Soil acquisition (15 kg)

Thin film solar power demonstrator (6 kg)

Camera system (5 kg)

Open for random proposals from the highest bidder (4 kg)

Educational payload (2 kg)

Winning university experiment (2 kg)

2022 unmanned lander mission

In 2022, an unmanned rover will be launched to Mars in order to pick a landing site for the 2027 Mars One landing and a site for the Mars One colony. At the same time, a communication satellite will be launched, enabling continuous communication with the Mars One colony.[41]

2024 cargo missions launch

In 2024, the 6 cargo missions will be launched in close succession, consisting of two living units, two life-support units, and two supply units.[41]

2026 Mars One launch

A spacecraft containing four astronauts will be launched from Earth to meet a Transit vehicle bound for Mars.[41]

2027 Mars One landing

In 2027, the landing module will land on Mars, containing four astronauts. They will be met by the rover launched in 2020, and taken to the Mars One colony.[41]

Astronaut selection and training

Sign up period (Round 1)

The application was available from 22 April 2013 to 31 August 2013.[42][43] The application consists of applicant’s general information, a motivational letter, a résumé and a video. Mars One plans to hold several other application periods in the future.

By 9 September 2013, 4,227 applicants[44] had paid their registration fee and submitted public videos in which they made their case for going to Mars in 2023.[45] The application fee varies from US $5 to US $75 (the amount depending on the relative wealth of the applicant's country).[46]

Distribution of the 1,058 applicants selected for Round 2 according to the academic degree[47]

Selections (Round 2)

The results of applicants selected for round 2 were declared on 30 December 2013. A total of 1,058 applicants from 107 countries were selected.[25] The gender split is 586 male (55.4%) and 472 female (44.6%). Among the people that were selected for round 2, 159 have a master's degree, 347 have bachelor's degrees and 29 have Doctor of Medicine (M.D.) degrees. The majority of the applicants are under 36 and well educated.[48][49][50]

The Mars 100 (Round 3)

Medically cleared candidates were interviewed, and 50 men and 50 women from the total pool of 660 from around the world were selected to move on to the third round of the astronaut selection process:[51][52]

Although initial plans were for the Mars One selection committee to perform regional interviews around the world, applicants were ultimately remotely interviewed and recorded by Mars One over a relatively short Skype/SparkHire call regarding Martian-related orbital, temp/pressure, geological and historical parameters and the specific elements of the Mars One one-way mission.[26][53][54] Dr. Joseph Roche, one of the finalists, has accused the selection process of being based on a point system that is primarily dependent on how much money each individual generated or gave to the Mars One organization, despite many of the round three selectees having not spent any money in the process, apart from the application fee, which varied as a function of each applicant's country GDP.[26][53][54] Lansdorp acknowledges a "gamification" point system but denies that selection is based on money earned.[54] Roche also stated that if paid for interviews, they are asked to donate 75% of the payment to Mars One.[26][54] This was confirmed by Lansdorp.[26][54]

Regional selection period (Cancelled Round 3)

It was originally planned that the pool of roughly one thousand successful applicants would be narrowed through regional contests. These events did not take place, and the above-mentioned group of 100 candidates were selected through the remote interview process and selected directly to round 3 in February 2015.

In late 2013, details of the 2015 selection phases had not been agreed upon due to ongoing negotiations with media companies for the rights to televise the selection processes.[55][needs update]

It was planned that the regional selection may be broadcast on TV and Internet in countries around the world. In each region, plans included 20–40 applicants participating in challenges including rigorous simulations, many in team settings, with focus on testing the physical and emotional capabilities of the remaining candidates, with the aim of demonstrating their suitability to become the first humans on Mars. The audience was to select one winner per region, and the experts could select additional participants, if needed, to continue to the international level.[56][57][needs update]

Group challenges (Round 4)

Round four (or three, depending on whether the application round is counted) will take place in September, 2016 over the course of 5 days, during which groups of 10 to 15 candidates will be formed. The Mars One selection committee will then set up group dynamic challenges and provide study materials related to the challenges. This allows them to observe how the candidates work in a group setting.[37]

Isolation (Round 5)

Candidates will spend nine days in an isolation unit. The candidates will be observed closely to examine how they act in situations of prolonged close contact with one another. This test is implemented because, during the journey to Mars and upon arrival, the candidates will spend 24 hours a day with each other and during this time the simplest things may start to become bothersome. It takes a specific team dynamic to be able to handle this, and the goal of this selection round is to find those that are best suited for this challenge.

After the isolation round, 30 candidates are chosen to partake in a Mars Settler Suitability Interview.[37]

Mars Settler Suitability Interview (Round 6)

The Mars Settler Suitability Interview measures suitability for long duration Space missions and Mars settlement and will last approximately 4 hours. 24 candidates are selected after the interview and will be offered full-time employment with Mars One.[37]

Training (Round 7)

From the previous selection series, six groups of four are to become full-time employees of the Mars One astronaut corps, after which they are to train for the mission. Whole teams and individuals might be deselected during training if they prove not to be suitable for the mission. Six to ten[citation needed] teams of four people are to be selected for seven years of full-time training.

Revenues and investment

Mars One funding comes from a variety of sources, primarily consisting of private investment, intellectual property (IP) rights and the sale of broadcasting rights, and only marginally consisting of what is its astronaut application fees.[46]

Investments

On January 29, 2013, Mars One announced its initial batch of investors[59] from the Netherlands and South Africa. The value of the investment remains undisclosed.

Reality TV

Mars One initially estimated a one-way trip, excluding the cost of maintaining four astronauts on Mars until they die, at 6 billion USD.[60] Lansdorp has declined questions regarding the cost estimate because he believes "it would be very stupid for us to give the prices that have been quoted per component".[61] For comparison, an "austere" manned Mars mission (including a temporary stay followed by a return of the astronauts) proposed by NASA in 2009 had a projected cost of $100 billion USD after an 18-year program, including a NASA-required return component.[62]

Mars One, the not-for-profit foundation, is the controlling stockholder of the for-profit Interplanetary Media Group.[63] A global "reality-TV" media event was intended to provide most of the funds to finance the expedition. The astronaut selection process (with some public participation) was to be televised and continue on through the first years of living on Mars.[64][65]

Discussions between Endemol, producers of the Big Brother series, and Mars One ended with Endemol subsidiary Darlow Smithson Productions issuing a statement in February 2015 that they "were unable to reach agreement on the details of the contract" and that the company was "no longer involved in the project."[66] Lansdorp updated plans to no longer include live broadcasts from Mars but instead rely on a documentary-style production, adding "Just like the Olympics, we watch highlights, we don't watch things that athletes do when they're not performing their abilities."[67]

Sponsors

On 31 August 2012, company officials announced that funding from its first sponsors had been received.[60] Corporate sponsorship money will be used mostly to fund the conceptual design studies provided by the aerospace suppliers.[60]

Donations and merchandise

Revenues that Mars One has received from merchandise sale, donations and the Indiegogo crowd funding campaign until 5 January 2015.[58]

Since the official announcement of their conversion to a Stichting, Mars One has been accepting one-time and regular monthly donations through their website. As of 11 March 2015, Mars One had received $784,380 in donations and merchandise sales.[68] The recent donation update adds the Indiegogo campaign ($313,744) to the private donation and merchandise total.

Over three quarters of the investment is in concept design studies. Mars One states that "income from donations and merchandise have not been used to pay salaries". To date, no financial records have been released for public viewing.[69]

Crowdfunding

On 10 December 2013, Mars One set up a crowdfunding campaign on Indiegogo to fund their 2018 demonstration mission. The 2018 mission includes a lander and communications satellite, and aims to prove several mission critical technologies in addition to launch and landing. The campaign goal was to raise $400,000 USD by 25 January 2014. Since the ending date was drawing near, they decided to extend the ending date to 9 February 2014. By the end of the campaign, they had received $313,744 in funds. Indiegogo will receive 9% ($28,237) of the $313,744 for the campaign failing to achieve its goal.[70]

Technology

Mars One has identified at least one potential supplier for each component of the mission.[71][72] The major components are planned to be acquired from proven suppliers.[73] As of May 2013[update], Mars One has a contract with only one company, Paragon Space Development Corporation, for a preliminary life support study.[74] Other contracts followed, as shown in Table 2, which will be updated as more confirmed contracts are let (or planned contracts are announced).

Launcher

The Falcon Heavy from SpaceX was the notional launcher in the early Mars One conceptual plan,[73] which included the notional use of SpaceX hardware for the lander and crew habitat, but, as of May 2013, SpaceX had not yet been contracted to supply mission hardware, and SpaceX has stated that it did "not currently have a relationship with Mars One."[74] By March 2014, SpaceX indicated that they had been contacted by Mars One, and were in discussions, but that accommodating Mars One requirements would require some additional work and that such work was not a part of the current focus of SpaceX.[80]

Mars transit vehicle

A manned interplanetary spacecraft, which would transport the crew to Mars, would be assembled in low Earth orbit and comprise two propellant modules: a Transit Living Module (discarded just before arrival at Mars) and a lander (see "Human Lander" below).[73][81]

Communications system

In December 2013 Mars One awarded a contract to Surrey Satellite Technology for a study of the satellite technology required to provide 24/7 communication between Earth and the Mars base.[83][84] Mars One expects that there will be at least two satellites, one in areostationary orbit above Mars and a second at the Earth – Sun L4 or L5 point to relay the signal when Mars blocks the areosynchronous satellite from line of sight to Earth.[84] It is possible that a third satellite will be required to relay the signal on the rare occasions when the sun blocks the first relay satellite from line of sight with Earth.[84]

Mars suit

The Mars suit would be flexible to allow the settlers to work with both cumbersome construction materials and sophisticated machinery when they are outside the habitat while protecting them from the cold, low pressure and noxious gases of the Martian atmosphere.[86] The likely supplier of the suits is ILC Dover.[87] On 12 March 2013, Paragon Space Development Corporation was contracted to develop concepts for life support and the Mars Surface Exploration Spacesuit System. The Paragon Space Development Corporation study was stated to be finished late summer 2013; Mars One released the results of this (ECLSS portion only) study to the public in June 2015.[88][89] The Mars suit study portion of the original contract has just entered ITAR review, with a publicly accessible copy available once passed through review.

Criticism

Mars One has received a variety of criticism, mostly relating to medical,[90] technical and financial feasibility. But there are also unverified claims that Mars One is a scam designed to take as much money as possible from donors, including reality show contestants.[91][92] Many have criticized the project's US$6 billion budget as being too low to successfully transport humans to Mars, to the point of being delusional.[10][93] A similar project study by NASA estimated the cost of such a feat at US$100 billion, although that included transporting the astronauts back to Earth. Objections have also been raised regarding the reality TV project associated with the expedition. Given the transient nature of most reality TV ventures, many believe that as viewership declines, funding could significantly decrease, thereby harming the entire expedition. Further, TV reality show contestants have reported that they were ranked based on their donations and funds raised.[91][94]

Academia

Chris Welch, director of Masters Programs at the International Space University, has said "Even ignoring the potential mismatch between the project income and its costs and questions about its longer-term viability, the Mars One proposal does not demonstrate a sufficiently deep understanding of the problems to give real confidence that the project would be able to meet its very ambitious schedule."[96]

Gerard 't Hooft, theoretical physicist and ambassador[97] to Mars One, has stated that he thought both their proposed schedule and budget were off by a factor of ten.[26][98] He said he still supported the project's overall goals.[98]

A space logistics analysis conducted by Ph.D. students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that the most optimistic of scenarios would require 15 Falcon Heavy launches that would cost approximately $4.5 billion.[99] They concluded that the reliability of Environmental Control and Life Support systems (ECLS), the Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), and in situ resource utilization (ISRU) would have to be improved. Additionally, they determined that if the costs of launch were also lowered dramatically, together this would help to reduce the mass and cost of Mars settlement architecture.[99] The environmental system would result in failure to be able to support human life in 68 days if fire safety standards on over-oxygenation were followed, due to excessive use of nitrogen supplies that would not then be able to be used to compensate leakage of air out of the habitat, leading to a resultant loss in pressurization, ending with pressures too low to support human life.[100] Lansdorp replied that although he has not read all the research, supplier Lockheed Martin says that the technologies were viable.[101]

Another serious concern uncovered in the research conducted by MIT is replacement parts. The Ph.D. students estimated the need for spare parts in a Mars colony based on the failure rates of parts on the ISS. They determined that a resupply mission every two years would be necessary unless a large space in the initial launch were to be reserved for extra materials. Lansdorp commented on this saying, "They are correct. The major challenge of Mars One is keeping everything up and running. We don't believe what we have designed is the best solution. It's a good solution."[101]

In March 2015, one of the Mars One finalists, Dr. Joseph Roche,[102] stated to media outlets that he believes the mission to be a scam. Roche holds doctorate degrees in physics and astrophysics, and shared many of his concerns and criticisms of the mission. These claims include that the organization lied about the number of applicants, stating that 200,000 individuals applied versus Roche's claim of 2,761, and that many of the applicants had paid to be put on the list. Furthermore, Roche claimed that Mars One is asking finalists for donations from any money earned from guest appearances (which would amount to a minimal portion of the estimated $6 billion required for the mission). Finally, despite being one of 100 finalists, Roche himself has never spoken to any Mars One employee or representative in person, and instead of psychological or psychometric testing as is normal for astronaut candidates (especially for a lengthy, one-way mission), his interview process consisted of a 10-minute Skype conversation.[91][103]

Space advocacy and policy

Robert Zubrin, advocate for manned Martian exploration, said "I don't think the business plan closes it. We're going to go to Mars, we need a billion dollars, and we're going to make up the revenue with advertising and media rights and so on. You might be able to make up some of the money that way, but I don't think that anyone who is interested in making money is going to invest on that basis — invest in this really risky proposition, and if you're lucky you'll break even? That doesn't fly."[104] Despite his criticisms, Zubrin became an adviser to Mars One on 10 October 2013.[105]

Astronauts

In January 2014, German former astronaut Ulrich Walter strongly criticized the project for ethical reasons. Speaking with Tagesspiegel, he estimated the probability of reaching Mars alive at only 30%, and that of surviving there more than three months at less than 20%. He said, "They make their money with that [TV] show. They don't care what happens to those people in space... If my tax money were used for such a mission, I would organize a protest."[106]

Space tourist Richard Garriott stated in response to Mars One, "Many have interesting viable starting plans. Few raise the money to be able to pull it off."[107]

Former astronaut Buzz Aldrin said in an interview that he wants to see humans on Mars by 2035, but he does not think Mars One will be the first to achieve it.[108]

Publications

Wired magazine gave it a plausibility score of 2 out of 10 as part of their 2012 Most Audacious Private Space Exploration Plans.[109]

The Daily Mail enumerated reasons why the project will never happen, calling the project "foolish". The project lacks current funding as well as sources for future funding. The organization has no spacecraft or rocket in development or any contracts in place with companies that could provide a spacecraft or rocket. While plans point to SpaceX for both resources, the company has no contracts with Mars One in an industry that typically plans contracts decades in advance. The organization has not shared any research into the effects of microgravity on crews in flight or reduced gravity on the Mars surface. The organization has yet to provide plans or even study how crews might survive dust storms, supply challenges or the increased radiation on Mars.[110]