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For meteorologists and senior leaders at NOAA, the first week of September 2019 is one they're never going to forget.

Amidst the tumult of Hurricane Dorian and its threat to the United States, President Trump injected himself into the story by warning that several states, including Alabama, would "most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever." Alabama faced virtually no risk from the storm at the time. After being ridiculed for this errant forecast, the president responded with a White House event where he displayed an official National Hurricane Forecast map with a Sharpie-drawn extension that included Alabama in Dorian's "cone of uncertainty."

Further Reading

The controversy only burned all the brighter when the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service tweeted that Alabama residents had nothing to fear from Dorian (which was accurate). This tweet occurred after the president's tweet about Alabama's risk but was apparently not directly in response to the president. Instead, it came in response to a surge of public inquiries. According to the meteorologist in charge of the Alabama office, Chris Darden, his office's phones "started ringing off the hook" with public inquiries and concern after the president took to Twitter.

In response to this sequence of events, NOAA released an unattributed statement on September 6 that rebuked the Alabama forecasters: "The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time."

All of this took place during the first week of September. The release of hundreds of emails on Friday night, in response to a Freedom of Information Act request by BuzzFeed News investigative reporter Jason Leopold, reveals the confusion and anger last year in the wake of the president's Alabama tweets, Oval Office appearance, and then the NOAA statement.

NOAA communications officials themselves were mystified by their own statement, which was released at the direction of the White House. "You are not going to believe this BULL," Maureen O'Leary, a public relations specialist at NOAA, wrote to a colleague.

In an email on the evening of September 6, the director of the National Weather Service, Louis Uccellini, wrote to Neil Jacobs, the acting director of NOAA about an "upwelling" of upset in the entire weather community due to the NOAA statement. "The mood out there is pretty ugly," he said.

Jacobs writes to senior National Weather Service official John Murphy.

BuzzFeed FOIA of NOAA

Murphy writes back to Jacobs.

BuzzFeed FOIA of NOAA

Timothy Gallaudet, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans at Atmosphere, writes to Murphy.

BuzzFeed FOIA of NOAA

Chris Darden, the meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service writes to a senior NOAA communications official.

BuzzFeed FOIA of NOAA

Craig McLean, the acting chief scientist at NOAA, was even more aghast in emails. "What's next? Climate science is a hoax?" he wrote in an email addressed to Jacobs and other senior leaders at NOAA and the National Weather Service. "Flabbergasted to leave our forecasters hanging in the political wind. Embarrassed, Craig."

Meanwhile, the workforce at National Weather Service offices across the country were scared about their employment. "Employees now fear for their jobs and are questioning whether they should post potentially life-saving info or check tweets first," John Murphy, the chief operating officer at NOAA, wrote to Jacobs.

In the midst of this storm was Neil Jacobs, who on one hand had to answer to the White House and Trump—who clearly were not stepping back from a wrong-headed and irresponsible forecast—but also had the grace to realize that his workforce was being besmirched in the process. "You have no idea how hard I'm fighting to keep politics out of science," Jacobs wrote to one NOAA employee. "The situation we're in is incredibly unfortunate. I don't have words to describe how I feel right now," Jacobs wrote another.

Further Reading

The picture that emerges from this trove of emails is one of civil servants and government employees at NOAA and the National Weather Service trying to do what was right in the midst of a political (and self-made) crisis at the top and a natural disaster (Dorian) pressuring them from without.

The extent to which Trump's actions severely distracted officials and forecasters at a time when they needed to be entirely focused on understanding the storm and warning US citizens about its impacts is significant. At the same time, the civility and dedication of people like Chris Darden, the meteorologist in charge of the Birmingham National Weather Service office, is pretty remarkable.

I'm not very familiar with the Australian PM but Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is clearly a smart guy pretending to be dumb, while Trump is clearly an actual fucking moron.

After watching Jon Oliver's piece on him, he probably is playing dumb to be a people person but in reality, yes, he's dumb and has no fucking clue what to do with Brexit.

The only actual solution to Brexit was to have another referendum, which Johnson couldn't do for obvious political reasons. I don't think a failure to navigate that absolute clusterfuck situation means you're dumb.

The ultimate problem with Brexit is that the 52% who voted for it almost certainly did not all imagine that they were voting for the same thing. It should have really been a two part referendum. There should have been a second ballot question presenting a spread of options if you voted leave, and it should have only been considered passed if question 1 got a majority and a single choice from the second part got a majority of the leave votes.

You would think Idiocracy the movie was a parody and not a documentary of our actual president. I am just waiting for Trump's Commercial about how we need to change our Plants to Brawndo instead of that nasty liberal #Fakenews water because Brawndo has the Nutrients Plants Crave.

I too thought we're living in Idiocracy, but I've realized we've gone beyond Idiocracy at this point.

In Idiocracy, everyone was an idiot, but when President Comacho encountered one person who wasn't, he sought his help and advice to solve the problems they couldn't figure out.

Our so-called "president" seems to actively avoid actual experts, and relies on people who tell him only exactly what he wants to hear, and people whose opinions match his prejudices and misconceptions about the world around him.

So it's worse than Idiocracy now, if you can believe it. How far we've fallen.

There was a time when I use to think that George Bush Jr. was the dumbest president we ever had but this guy just loves to prove me wrong on a daily basis. This man makes G.B. Jr. look like a freaking genius by comparison.

Climate Science? Sure. Past centuries record specifics. But hey, in the 50s-60s 'experts' said in 25 years an Ice Age would extinct humanity. Now we're promised 12 years to die. Meh, msm is paid to sing. Do they ever report binSalman's ArabVision2030 global dominance updates? That's as likely as Trump hater trolls actually being flagged by CondeNast.

You seem confused. The topic isn't climate science. Your confusion makes sense though, as you took the time to sign up and type out that burbling word salad of incomprehension. Have another shot. Or toke or whatever you're imbibing. Whatever as long as you stay away.

You're doing it again.

Step away from the keyboard. Stand up.

Go outside.

I would never presume to instruct you in how to live your life. I politely ask you to grant me the same courtesy.

I fear the US missed it's one chance to correct course by rejecting witnesses in the Senate. Trump needed to be struck down and humiliated in public to the extent that even the most rural farmer would have felt sorry for him. Now all they see is the reality that the system really is broken, and Trump successfully hijacked it.

If by some miracle Trump is voted out in November all that's likely to happen is Fox and the Trump-fold will convince themselves of foul play, work themselves into a fervor, and the country will continue to devolve into civil war. Trump won't hesitate to use the military against democratic cities under the guise of "restoring order" and the transformation of the Great American Experiment into Putin's Great Success will be complete.

I always thought I was lucky to live in the age of technology, but I never suspected that connecting and giving everyone a voice would lead to the death of democracy. And how ironic that all this might have been avoided in a true democracy without the Senate, which is by it's design undemocratic.

The Greeks knew. The weakness of a democracy is there might arise a demagogue. Welcome, Donald Trump.

I fear the US missed it's one chance to correct course by rejecting witnesses in the Senate. Trump needed to be struck down and humiliated in public to the extent that even the most rural farmer would have felt sorry for him. Now all they see is the reality that the system really is broken, and Trump successfully hijacked it.

If by some miracle Trump is voted out in November all that's likely to happen is Fox and the Trump-fold will convince themselves of foul play, work themselves into a fervor, and the country will continue to devolve into civil war. Trump won't hesitate to use the military against democratic cities under the guise of "restoring order" and the transformation of the Great American Experiment into Putin's Great Success will be complete.

I always thought I was lucky to live in the age of technology, but I never suspected that connecting and giving everyone a voice would lead to the death of democracy. And how ironic that all this might have been avoided in a true democracy without the Senate, which is by it's design undemocratic.

The Greeks knew. The weakness of a democracy is there might arise a demagogue. Welcome, Donald Trump.

Trump is in office thanks to social media, the right wing echo chamber, the Internet lowering the barriers needed to reach other people, and the increasing ability of highly educated technically skilled people being able to relocate to cosmopolitan diverse communities, and the demise of high paying low skilled jobs availability in small town/rural areas. For decades people with the ability to acquire higher education and technical skills have moved out of areas of the country with few opportunities which has resulted in rural/small town populations becoming in the aggregate more conservative, and lower educated and skilled. In previous generations, small town/rural areas would have remained the lifelong homes of the more highly skilled who currently relocate to more diverse urban communities.

In addition to the above factors, we have the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Quote:

In the field of psychology, the Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is. It is related to the cognitive bias of illusory superiority and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability.

The right wing echo chamber and social media creates a bubble in which this lower skilled/educated population is able to get reinforcement in their misconceptions of reality. Since this population rarely if ever interacts in their daily activities with actual experts, but they daily interact both online and in person with people of similar limited education, there is little to nothing to counteract the Dunning-Kruger effect. Experts are the other, egg heads lost in their books who have no idea what the real world is.

So now we have a large minority of society, collectively suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect who perceive an abusive criminal con artist posing as a billionaire on a reality TV show to be a strong leader. With the electoral college, the Dunning-Kruger party is able to impose its will on the rest of the country.

Before all the right wingnuts get all bent out of shape about "Why is this on Ars?", just think about this:

Trump is a moron and a criminal. Clearly the Senate has no intention of challenging him on either count so it's now up to the voters to enforce.

So get used to it. Between now and November there will be constant reminders that Trump's supporters are getting behind someone who is a demonstrable moron and a proven criminal. If you're bothered by someone pointing that out, maybe you need to rethink your support.

While I totally agree with you, I want to take issue with one part of your post ". . . Clearly the Senate has no intention of challenging him on either count . . ." It would be better expressed that, "Republican members of the House and Senate have no intention of challenging him on either count . . " This "trial" was over before it began because the Democrats did not have enough votes in the Senate to at least call for more witnesses, let alone convict. I can only hope that the House presses forward with its subpoenas forcing SCOTUS to take a stand. I want to see that legal issue decided by this court, how ever it decides. It can be revisited later on if SCOTUS proves to be feckless.

You would think Idiocracy the movie was a parody and not a documentary of our actual president. I am just waiting for Trump's Commercial about how we need to change our Plants to Brawndo instead of that nasty liberal #Fakenews water because Brawndo has the Nutrients Plants Crave.

I'm pretty sure I've been ninja'd, but I believe it was electrolytes that the plants crave. Also, Idiocracy portrays a utopia when compared to the current time line. https://youtu.be/OmZOZjHjT5E

Well of course. He can't accept he's wrong or looks dumb at times. Well, a lot of times. Anyone ever try to read transcripts of his speeches or a rally? Crazy.

It isn't only him. The Independent once published a literal transcription of one of Boris Johnson's speeches, and it was equally bad. And then there's the Australian PM...another one cut from the same cloth.

Quem deus perdere vult, dementat prius. The trouble is that it seems it is the English speaking world God wants to destroy, and is doing it by sending our rulers mad.

Briton here. Johnson is actually worse, because the nonsensical gibberish he spouts is scripted. There’s a story from a guy who was involved in an awards ceremony with Johnson where he observed him recounting some preposterous tale of larkdom, complete with his usual fumfering and ‘folksy errors’. Several years later the same guy was involved in some other event, also with Johnson. Who told the same story, with the same quirky speech pattern and the same “random asides”...Everything. Verbatim. Johnson is incredibly dangerous because he’s not just like that, he’s deliberately acting like that.

Ever time I read something like this It makes me rage knowing that man child is still in office... GOT in office.

And one of the two parties has decided to cover up his crimes to keep him there.

I can think of no other time when a party has confirmed that party is more important than the good of the nation. Nobody but a complete sycophant or blind party loyalist could not see the obvious criminal and corrupt behavior of this president. Only the complete incompetence of this administration has-so far- allowed us to avoid catastrophe.

Yeah, provided he doesn’t decided term limits “are not in the best interest of the nation “ or some other bullshit.The republicans will just bend over for their big daddy trump and see what else they can get away with.All bets are off as to the extents of unfettered criminality the republicans will engage in now, after they decided to completely abandon their duties to protect their master.If trump decides he’s not leaving office, they will back him to any extent they feel they can each personally get away with.There is no shame, no bottom, and now no limits to their ambitions.And NOBODY will stop them.Forget “the law” or “the system of checks and balances” that died for good last week.

Well of course. He can't accept he's wrong or looks dumb at times. Well, a lot of times. Anyone ever try to read transcripts of his speeches or a rally? Crazy.

It isn't only him. The Independent once published a literal transcription of one of Boris Johnson's speeches, and it was equally bad. And then there's the Australian PM...another one cut from the same cloth.

Quem deus perdere vult, dementat prius. The trouble is that it seems it is the English speaking world God wants to destroy, and is doing it by sending our rulers mad.

Briton here. Johnson is actually worse, because the nonsensical gibberish he spouts is scripted. There’s a story from a guy who was involved in an awards ceremony with Johnson where he observed him recounting some preposterous tale of larkdom, complete with his usual fumfering and ‘folksy errors’. Several years later the same guy was involved in some other event, also with Johnson. Who told the same story, with the same quirky speech pattern and the same “random asides”...Everything. Verbatim. Johnson is incredibly dangerous because he’s not just like that, he’s deliberately acting like that.

Just the other day I read about how Hitler used to practice his wild gesticulating and foaming at the mouth in front of a mirror or camera when rehearsing for a speech. So you can add fake authenticity to the genociding, warmongering, brutality and incompetence.

He must know. Nobody, truly believes they can just take a sharpie to a map and change the entire narrative of a hurricane. That's far, far beyond the Steve Job's reality distortion field. He knows it's a dumb thing, but he can't help himself.

He's a compulsive idiot.

Does he, though?

Trump may be the biggest consumer of his own BS. He is so narcissistic, so delusional that I think he actually believes he can do no wrong. When he says or does something stupid and is criticized for it I think on some level he actually thinks that everyone is just out to get him. This is not a man who takes criticism well. That's why he's surrounded himself with an echo chamber of yes men. His cognitive dissonance does not allow for any sort of criticism--even constructive criticism--because that would challenge his self image too much.

He must know. Nobody, truly believes they can just take a sharpie to a map and change the entire narrative of a hurricane. That's far, far beyond the Steve Job's reality distortion field. He knows it's a dumb thing, but he can't help himself.

He's a compulsive idiot.

Does he, though?

Trump may be the biggest consumer of his own BS. He is so narcissistic, so delusional that I think he actually believes he can do no wrong. When he says or does something stupid and is criticized for it I think on some level he actually thinks that everyone is just out to get him. This is not a man who takes criticism well. That's why he's surrounded himself with an echo chamber of yes men. His cognitive dissonance does not allow for any sort of criticism--even constructive criticism--because that would challenge his self image too much.

It's all okay because he believes that everything he does is in the national interest. L’état, c’est moi.

Yeah, that jaw-dropping argument from Dershowitz -- not confirmed by any other legal scholar -- was a clear sign that the defense was well past the bottom of the barrel and digging halfway to China.

Getting back to the topic at hand, As someone living on the west coast of Florida, I was of course acutely aware that the forecasts had shifted from crossing the state, well before Trump "threatened" Alabama. Hilarity and much head-scratching ensued.

I DON'T CARE ABOUT A THING THAT HAPPENED MONTHS AGO, THAT'S ANCIENT HISTORY! JUST BECAUSE WE'RE STILL LEARNING NEW THINGS ABOUT IT DOESN'T MEAN I WANT TO LEARN NEW THINGS ABOUT IT! I'M AN ANGRY MAN! DON'T BEFUDDLE ME WITH FACTS!

It's all okay because he believes that everything he does is in the national interest. L’état, c’est moi.

Yeah, that jaw-dropping argument from Dershowitz -- not confirmed by any other legal scholar -- was a clear sign that the defense was well past the bottom of the barrel and digging halfway to China.

Getting back to the topic at hand, As someone living on the west coast of Florida, I was of course acutely aware that the forecasts had shifted from crossing the state, well before Trump "threatened" Alabama. Hilarity and much head-scratching ensued.

I lived in Tarpon Springs for 8 years. Hurricane season was always........interesting.