SOCS 621
Public Opinion on the Brink of Election: The Formation and Influence of Public
Opinion

Douglas Foyle

Wednesday 6-8:30 PM Office: PAC 307

Class Location: PAC 107 Phone: 685-5049

Email: dfoyle@wesleyan.edu

Course Description

The relationship between leaders and the public remains a
core concern of democratic theorists and political observers. This course
examines a range of issues associated with public opinion such as the nature of
public attitudes, the public's relationship to governance, and election
campaigns. In addition to domestic policy, conceptions related to foreign policy
are integrated throughout the course. The 2008 fall campaign season allows real
time application of current events to scheduled course material. In each week,
I’ll either apply concepts from the course to the current campaign or provide
supplemental material engaging current campaign process issues.

Students are strongly encouraged to stay current with
campaign 2008 developments through reading one of the major newspapers (e.g.,
New York Times or Washington Post) in either the paper or on-line version.

Course Grading

Grades will be based on three short papers (20% each), an
essay final (25%), and participation (15%).

Class periods will be devoted to a mixture of lecture and
discussion. Students must come to class prepared to discuss the day's assigned
reading.

Short Papers

Short Papers: The short papers should be 3-4 pages in length.
Students are required to write one paper in each of the three course
sections (three papers in total). The paper topic can address any one of the
daily discussion questions listed in the class schedule below.

Papers may be submitted to me through the course Blackboard
(preferred) or to me personally in paper form. Papers are due at the beginning
of class the week after the discussion of the questions occurs (e.g., a paper
answering a September 17 discussion question is due before the beginning of
class on September 24). If submitted through the Blackboard, papers should be
uploaded before the beginning of the class when the paper is due. If submitted
in paper form, papers should be turned in at the beginning of class. If
Blackboard fails you, you may e-mail the paper to me as an attachment to my
e-mail address above.

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Papers should be typed, double-spaced, single-sided, 12 point
font, 1 inch margins, and stabled together (if submitted in paper form). All
pages should be numbered.

Comments and grades will be provided through the Blackboard.

References to material assigned for the course can be of the
form: (Author Name, page number). Any references to material not assigned for
the course should conform to the style outlined in: Kate L. Turabian, A Manual
For Writers of Term Papers, Theses, and Dissertations, 6th ed. (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1996).

Final

Take-Home Essay Final: A take-home essay final will be due on
Wednesday, December 10 at 10 p.m. The essay should be submitted on the
Blackboard (preferred) or as an e-mail attachment to my e-mail address. Comments
and grades will be provided through the Blackboard. The page limit is 6-8 pages.
The question is:

Given what you have learned in this course, do you feel
that public opinion provides an adequate basis for the functioning of a
democratic polity?

Participation

Participation will be evaluated based upon the student's
contribution to discussion, responsiveness to other students, and quality of
insight.

If a student has more than one excused absence from class,
the student has the option of completing extra work to make up for the missed
participation. The make-up work is a 1 page reaction paper to one of the
readings. Essentially, pick one of the readings from the day missed and give
your view on why the article is useful, not useful, etc. (e.g., "Professor
Murray completely misses the point that...").

Readings

The following books are required reading:

Carroll J. Glynn, et al,
Public Opinion, 2004, 2nd
edition

Herbert Asher, Polling and
the Public, 2007, 7th
edition

Paul R. Abramson,
John H. Aldrich, David W. Rohde, Change
and Continuity in the 2004 and 2006
Elections, 2007

All of the books are on reserve at Olin Library. A number of
other readings are available directly from the course Blackboard as indicated on
the syllabus.

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CLASS SCHEDULE

I. Public Opinion: What Is It? How Should It Be Measured?

1. September 10 Course Introduction:
Should Public Opinion Be Trusted With Policy?

John Mueller, "American
Foreign Policy and Public Opinion in a New
Era: Eleven Propositions," 2002 (Blackboard)

How would you characterize Clawson and Oxley’s view
regarding public opinion in a democracy? Do you agree with their
assessment of public opinion’s characteristics (pliability, organization
of attitudes, consistency with democratic basics? Why or why not?

Mueller suggests 11 propositions about public opinion
and foreign policy. Pick one or two of them. Do you agree with his
assessment? Why or why not?

Taken together (and if correct), do you conclude that
Mueller’s eleven propositions suggest that public opinion can be the
basis for successful democratic policy formulation? Why or why not?

2. September 17
The Meaning of Public Opinion

Glynn, Public Opinion, pp.
1-72

Asher, Polling, pp. 1-31

Glynn presents five competing visions of public opinion
(as the aggregation of individual Opinion p. 19, majority belief p. 20,
clash of group interests p. 22, as media and elite opinion p. 24, and as
"fiction" p. 25). Do you find one of these views of public opinion
"best"? Why or why not?

What are the arguments that can be made in favor or
against each of the five views of public opinion that Glynn presents?
Which side do you find convincing? Why? (If using this question for the
paper, pick one of the five views).

Given the history of how public opinion has been
understood (Glynn, chapter 2), do you believe that polling provides a
significant advancement in our understanding of public opinion? Why or
why not?

After reading the introduction of the Asher book, what
is your assessment of polling as a tool of measuring public opinion?
Why?

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3. September 24 The Modern Measurement
of Public Opinion

Glynn, Public Opinion, pp.
73-116

Asher, Polling, pp. 32-118
(read for general idea in each chapter –
I’ll hit the main points in lecture)

Thinking back to Glynn’s five competing visions of
public opinion (as the aggregation of individual Opinion p. 19, majority
belief p. 20, clash of group interests p. 22, as media and elite opinion
p. 24, and as "fiction" p. 25), how does the method used to measure
public opinion (polling, focus groups, content analysis of the media,
etc.) affect how we understand public opinion?

How serious is the problem of "nonattitudes" (as
discussed in Asher) for the concept of public opinion?

How serious is the problem of "nonattitudes" for the
measurement of public opinion?

Given all the problems with polling measurement that
Asher discusses, how seriously should we take polls in representing
"public opinion?" Why or why not?

4.
October 1
Where do Public Attitudes Come from?

Glynn, Public Opinion, pp.
119-280

Is the distinction between attitudes and opinions (p.
123) a meaningful one? Why or why not?

From a democratic perspective, does it matter where
people get their attitudes from? Why or why not?

Given today’s reading, do you consider public opinion to
be fundamentally rational? Why or why not?

Of the various perspectives on public opinion in today’s
reading (psychological, sociological, perceptions, economic approaches),
which do you find most convincing? Why?

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II. Public Opinion’s Influence: Elections

5. October 8 Public Opinion in
Presidential Campaign 2004

Abramson, Aldrich, Rohde,
Elections, pp. 73-206

Final date for submission of paper 1

What most accounts for the 2004 election result:
turnout, social forces, issues, presidential performance, or party? Why?

When the five factors in the previous question are
considered, is the outcome in 2004 essentially determined before the
campaign even starts? Why or why not?

Given today’s reading, is the 2004 election similar or
different than previous campaigns? Why or why not?

6.
October 15
Rationality and Structure of Public Opinion in
Voting

Glynn, Public Opinion , pp.
283-354

How malleable to events and government action does the
public appear in the today's readings?

How reasoning do you consider the public to be as
portrayed in today’s reading?

Does the public seem to meet the basic requirements of
competence to participate in democracy? Why or why not?

Do the results from the 2004 presidential election align
with the scholarly views of the public presented in this reading? Why or
why not?

7. October 22
The Influence of Public Opinion on Democratic Politics

Glynn, Public Opinion, pp.
355-404

Paul Burstein, "The Impact
of Public Opinion on Public Policy: A Review
and Agenda," 2003 (Blackboard)

In the main, do you feel that today’s reading suggest a
government that is responsive to public opinion? Why or why not?

What does Burstein see as the primary determinants of
public opinion affecting policy? Do you agree? Why or why not?

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8. October 29 The Influence of Public
Opinion During Elections

Abramson, Aldrich, Rohde,
Elections, pp. 1-73

Asher, Polling, pp. 141-177

To what extent is the 2008 campaign similar to the 2004
campaign discussed in today’s reading?

To what extent is the 2008 campaign different than the
2004 campaign discussed in today’s reading?

With the Asher reading for today, what roll have polls
played in the 2008 presidential campaign?

III. Public Opinion and the Political Context

9. November 5 Public Opinion and the
Presidency

Robert Y. Shapiro and
Lawrence R. Jacobs, "Presidents and Polling:
Politicians, Pandering, and the Study of
Democratic Responsiveness," 2001,
(Blackboard)

Richard Brody and Catherine
Shapiro, "A Reconsideration of the Rally
Phenomenon in Public Opinion," 1989
(Blackboard)

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