Official calls one SUSD race 'a coin toss'

STOCKTON - Though not the closest school board race in recent memory, the winner of the Stockton Unified School District Area 1 contest between incumbent Gloria Allen and challenger Monica Hernandez might remain unsettled for nearly a month.

STOCKTON - Though not the closest school board race in recent memory, the winner of the Stockton Unified School District Area 1 contest between incumbent Gloria Allen and challenger Monica Hernandez might remain unsettled for nearly a month.

Allen holds a mere 40-vote lead with 100 percent of the 13 precincts in south Stockton reporting late Tuesday night.

But Wednesday, San Joaquin County Registrar of Voters Austin Erdman said 28,000 mail-in ballots and 17,000 provisional ballots remain uncounted countywide. Hernandez's backers believe close to 2,000 of those uncounted votes could be in Area 1. Erdman called the Allen-Hernandez race "a coin toss."

"Neck and neck," Erdman said. "It could go either way."

Allen and Hernandez were taking nothing for granted Wednesday.

"I'm not saying nothing until the fat lady really sings," Allen said.

Hernandez said, "All I can say is it's a close race. I've done a clean grass-roots campaign. I've done my best. I gave it my all. It was my first time. We have to wait."

Allen leads Hernandez, 1,640-1,600, with 16 ballots also counted for write-in candidates. In 2008, when Allen was elected, a total of 5,126 votes were cast in the Area 1 race, close to 1,900 more than have been counted so far in this year's election.

Erdman said Wednesday it could take until the end of next week for the mail-in ballots to be counted. The registrar has 28 days to complete counting of the provisional ballots.

"(Hernandez) is not conceding at this point," said Gracie Madrid, who is managing the challenger's campaign. "My advice to her is just to wait until the last vote is counted and go from there."

A recount is possible if the vote remains close once every ballot has been tabulated. A recount would spark memories of the 2008 race in east Stockton between challenger Jose Morales and incumbent Anthony Silva. It was 34 days before that outcome became official, with Morales a one-vote victor over Silva, who Tuesday was elected as Stockton's mayor.

This year's other Stockton Unified races are not nearly as close. In Area 3 in east Stockton, challenger Kathy Garcia leads incumbent Jose Morales by 416 votes and 14 percentage points. In Area 4 in midtown, challenger Colleen Keenan was ahead of incumbent Angel Jimenez by 400 votes and nearly seven percentage points.

Though the numbers appear daunting, Jimenez said Wednesday, "I'm going to wait for every vote to be counted." In an email, Morales held out slim hope but also wrote, "If the tally stays the same, which I believe it will, the community spoke and wanted a new voice."

The outcomes of the races could be pivotal for Stockton Unified. Superintendent Steve Lowder was hired earlier this year by a 4-3 vote of the board. Allen and Jimenez provided two of those votes.

One thing Lowder and the board will not have to deal with is the fallout that was expected had Gov. Jerry Brown's Proposition 30 tax increase been defeated by voters.

School districts throughout California were bracing for multimillion-dollar budget cuts if Proposition 30 did not succeed. Stockton Unified officials have said their district's hit would have been about $15 million, possibly resulting in a shortened school year, larger class sizes and layoffs. With 30's passage, budgets are expected to remain largely unchanged.

"We're gratified we're not going to have to make some reductions in our budgets," Lowder said. "We're taking it with a grain of salt. It doesn't mean we're going to get more money. But certainly it's a lot better than losing $15 million.

"The message that's important to send people is it doesn't mean a lot of money for new programs. Basically it will keep us steady with where we are right now."