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November 29, 2007

The Battle For Santana

The Red Sox and Twins are discussing the framework of a Johan Santana deal that would have Boston sending four players to Minnesota in return for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, including center fielder Coco Crisp, pitcher Jon Lester and minor-league shortstop Jed Lowrie, the trio that would to anchor the deal.

Red Sox pitcher Michael Bowden has been discussed as a possible fourth player, sources say, but the identity of the fourth player is in flux.

Bowden's a bigger chip than Masterson, but if we can get (and obviously extend) Johan and still keep Buchholz and Ellsbury ... do that deal! And don't make any plans for next late October.

Olney says that Buchholz and Ellsbury "are considered untouchables" in the negotiations, as are Cano and Joba on the MFY side. Does that mean that New York has tossed Hughes into the pot with Milk Dud (and Kennedy?)?

If the Yankees up their offer, Theo can switch Ellsbury for Crisp, but then both Bowden and Masterson would likely be pulled off the table.

"Steven A. Smith has Torii Hunter on today and he had some interesting comments on the Santana to Boston talks going on. Smith asked him right out of the box what he thought about the rumors of Boston leading the race to acquire Santana. Hunter was surprised. He stated Santana never talked about going to Boston and he said Santana only talked about how cool it would be to play in NY. Then, when he thought hard about it, he said that with Ortiz in Boston he could see it happening and said that Santana would "love it" in Boston. He said Ortiz and Santana ruled the clubhouse in Minn and cut it up all the time. ... The Yanks have been known to have players call other players to help get them to go to NY. Maybe Papi is helping?"

Replacement Level did a projection on Santana through 2014 and it isn't that impressive. Great pitcher, but not exactly Pedro circa 1999. There is a limit on what he's worth. If the Yanks overpay for him with prospects and get saddled for over $20m a year for six years, it's not a disaster. I think if you're Theo, you want him and you want to drive up the price. And, yeah, there will be that moment when someone blinks.

Isn't Haren, who's cheap for another three years, more our speed? We'll see.

Redsock - I agree, I figured that when the news broke that Santana was looking at seven years Theo would say no thanks. However if Theo can get him to agree to a five year extension to his present year, then maybe they can make this happen. BTW - the Herald clubhouse insider blog has a good breakdown on other trades of this magnitude.

The Yankees deperately need him , If they Don't and we do .they couldn't survive that . I'm not buying that Joba , Hughes and Kennedy are as good as people say.....They had nothing in the minors and all of a sudden they have 3 can't miss studs, with no proven track record except for Joba from August on.....

The price is also not very steep for a front line guy...the Red Sox have to be worth close to 800 million dollars or more I am sure they can afford a 200+ million dollar payroll....

"The Yankees have offered pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. In the trade discussions, the Yankees have told the Twins that pitcher Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and that they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes.

"Because the Twins are insisting that Hughes must be a part of the package, the Yankees are mulling whether to make that concession. If the Yankees insert Hughes for Kennedy in their offer, they think it could be enough to obtain Santana. ...

"The Red Sox have apparently offered pitcher Jon Lester, center fielder Coco Crisp, the minor league shortstop Jed Lowrie and another minor league pitcher. The Twins have been insistent in trying to snare center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, a player Boston is unwilling to move."

9casey - The last figures I saw had the Sox at around 625 million, however you have to remember that NESN is part of that figure. That figure sticks out from Forbes list last year.

200 million payroll? Henry will never allow that, because of the luxury tax. I still think they will end up in the 145-155 range this year. Whether they can afford more, have to look at the books but from a pure cash flow amount they probably could go more.

I also don't think that Santana is looking for 20+ per year. From the stories about the Twins contract offer it was not the money that was the problem but the years (he wanted 7).

Redsock - Isn't that limit for cash as in player a traded for player b plus cash? I think the commish justifies team a playing part of players salary for team b as one of those, "if you were crazy enough to offer this contract you should be punished".

Isn't that limit for cash as in player a traded for player b plus cash? I think the commish justifies team a playing part of players salary for team b as one of those, "if you were crazy enough to offer this contract you should be punished".

Maybe. I know there's a cash limit, but since it gets waived every so often, how cast in stone can in be?

Latest Rumors say Pettitte is almost certainly retiring, so I think MFY will not want to let go of Hughes. I also think they need Santana more than we do, so while we may be better able to seal a deal with the Twins, they may be more likely to seal a deal with Santana, and altho I sometimes get a bit confused with the "No-trade" thing, I know you have to deal with him as much as with the team.Regardless, getting Santana without giving up LBJ or Buchholz seems too good to be real, and those things usually are........ too good to be real.

I believe the rule is, and I could be extremely wrong, that any trade involving cash considerations of over $1m requires commissioner approval. So Selig has nothing against a slappy type deal where the Rangers had to give money, because Soriano was still involved in the trade. If the Rangers had "posted" Rodriguez and the Yankees just paid them $20-30m for his rights, that would be eliminated.

As an example, from BP's transaction analysis:

"Purchased OF-L Chris Snelling from the Rays. [11/20]"

So I believe you can post any player as long as the money will be less than a mill. Selig just wants to prevent what they have in European football where players are bought and sold by teams.

So if the Sox got Santana and gave up Lester, the starting line up would be Santana, DiceK, Schilling, and? Buchholz? Wakefield? Both? Does Wake move to the bullpen? Is Buchholz going to be babied another year in terms of innings pitched?

FWIW, I would not give up LBJ. I assume L-girl agrees, although I know she does not believe in sentimentality in baseball.

Echoing the sentiments of everyone else here....DO IT!!! (As long as it doesn't involve LBJ)

Extra Bases has this little piece of interview from Paps regarding getting Johan, he's in support of it, as well as keeping Ellsbury.

I think if MFY offers Hughes, Theo doesn't bring up Ellsbury; it just seems to me like NY is one of those teams that will say players are untouchable, but when push comes to shove, few really are. Sox seem more like a team that actually, you know, stand by their words. If they say LBJ is untouchable, he's probably not going anywhere unless its one hell of a deal. And this isn't that type of deal. It's clearly amazing, however, Johan's not worth moving Ellsbury+all the other players.

Tim - I heard the Papelbon interview this morning. Extra bases didn't put in the best part. I am sure it will be on WEEI's web page so try to catch it if you can. D and C had to explain the deal to him, because he didn't even know there was a trade talk happening. Classic Papelbon!!!

They also asked him about a new contract which he basically pooh poohed as something not to worry about but hopefully would happen before spring training, however if he didn't get one he would be more than willing to take his resume to Arbitration!

I am afraid that the lovely period of Papelbon's career during which we could marvel over his ability but not have to hear him speak is over. Nice guy, I'm sure, but no one I'll be expecting any pearls of wisdom from anytime soon.

The wording makes it sound like they're offering both Hughes and Kennedy, but that's not true. The Yankees said they wouldn't go that far.

But you know what? That's fine. They can have Santana. Minnesota can have Hughes and the Dud. The Yankees will then need to buy a CF and probably end up shelling out $25 million per year to Santana. Everyone knows the Yankees need a proven ace. So does Johan. That will be a fun negotiation.

And then, if the Red Sox feel like it, they can go for Dan Haren. Buster Olney of ESPN is already reporting that the Sox are talking to the A's about him.

I wonder if the bit about Pettite wanting to retire is true. Because, if it is, they really need Santana. And all we have to do is drive up the price.

Assuming they don't have a health meltdown like at the beginning of last year, this means the Yankees will be good. But -- is there any real hope otherwise? They're going to build a pretty good team no matter what.

If the Yankees are throwing Huges into the deal, I think the Sox will then make an offer including Ellsbury and Lester. People across Red Sox Nation will then have a hissy fit, but I think without good reason. Not because I don't think Ellsbury is good, but because I think it will be a bluff deal by Theo to force the Yankees to deal more.

I don't think the Yanees would just roll over and allow us to get Santana while keeping Buchholz.

The yankees have already offered a deal around Hughes, Melky, and one of their non-pitching prospects. It's tough to imagine the red sox offering more (in the eyes of the twins, more means Buchholz), but in a way the red sox invovlment did up the price from Kennedy to Hughes for the yankees.

If the sox make the deal it's a win now let the yankees win later mentality...which I think works for the redsox better.

If the yankees land the deal they are very scary now and have the potential in two years to be ridiculous.

From Silverman it looks like Yankees are offering Melky, Kennedy, and Hughes.

In a development that could help Johan Santana wind up in pinstripes, there were indications last night from a major league source that if the Yankees were to include Philip Hughes in a deal with the Twins, it would be enough to make the trade happen.

The Yankees have offered starter Ian Kennedy and outfielder Melky Cabrera to the Twins but so far not Hughes, their best young starter. A report on ESPN.com last night said the Yankees front office is beginning to accept the premise of trading Hughes.

$3 million for Timlin, according to the Providence Journal and rotoworld.com

FOX's midget Yankee-loving reporter Rosenthal reported that the Twins told the Yankees that they were prepared to make the deal with Boston (coco, lester, lowrie, bowden/masterson) if the Yankees didn't include Hughes in place of Kennedy.

And the Red Sox are scheduled to talk to the Twins this afternoon about Santana.

Some scouts aren't touting Lyndon as highly as the rest of us are...

Most scouts project Ellsbury to be good and maybe very good, but not a star. What's more, his trade value might never be higher after his outstanding performance in high-profile games in September and October.

"A lot of hype," one scout says of Ellsbury.

"A polished college player who played at a high level in a hurry," says another. "He already is 'tool-ed' out. He only will be an 8-to-10 homer guy."

Apparently they didn't see what we saw in September and October. Of course, it'll all be on Lyndon to keep it up next year and beyond. You know the old addage: Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don't make. And sometimes the worst trades are the ones you don't make.

The Twins are certainly playing the game right now. Telling the Yankees they're going to agree with the Red Sox, driving the price up for the Yankees from Kennedy to Hughes, and I'm sure the Twins will then tell the Red Sox today, that they're prepared to make the deal with the Yankees unless the Red Sox include Ellsbury instead of Coco.

Alright, Theo, now name-drop Ellsbury and maybe Buchholz and see if you can get the Chokers to toss in Hughes AND Kennedy, or maybe Cano.

We'd love to have Johan, but the Yankees NEED him.

Ellsbury definitely outperformed what most scouts expected from him, especially in slugging. Baseball history is full of astounding last season debuts that did not continue (In NYY's case, see Maas, Kevin, and Spencer, Shane).

Ellsbury definitely outperformed what most scouts expected from him, especially in slugging. Baseball history is full of astounding last season debuts that did not continue (In NYY's case, see Maas, Kevin, and Spencer, Shane).

True, true, true. I guess it comes to what we think is acceptable. Myself I think Ellsbury will probably be a .290/.360/.400 type of player next year (lower than his .314/.390/.426 career minors). The question is will he improve on those numbers in the future. I think that he will probably continue to grow (I just like the way he carries himself).

As for the 8-10 hr guy? I'm sorry I don't look at lead off speed guys as my home run source. I'm more interested in the double/take the extra base guys.

I love the guy who can go to the next base, too. First-to-third guys namely. Makes your team that much more potent if you have two singles and now you're at the corners. You look at Ellsbury's speed, and if he can develop the base-running intellect that guys like the Doctor and the Captain have... Sky's the limit.

If the report would be true and the Yankees kept Kennedy in the deal with Hughes, Cabrera... Let them have Johan Santana for two top pitching prospects and a good CF, and $25 million/year more money on the books. Watch them next year try to piece together a rotation again. Santana, Chamberlain, Wang, Mussina... and MAYBE Pettitte. Sounds like he's leaning towards retiring. Who am I missing?

But then, with their outfield? Ellsbury will be able to advance TWO bases on routine plays.

Lastly, if the Red Sox still feel they need to make a move to counter Santana, then there is still Dan Haren. We keep saying this but nobody seems to notice. Dan Haren and Erik Bedard. Of course, the Orioles will expect a lot in return if they're going to trade their ace to a team in their division. Haren's locked up for the next three years too.

Redsock good points about Haren, has anyone looked at his home away splits? As for Beane trading him, I think it is more of a is it time to explode this team, stock up on youth and start another re-build movement. Specifically does he think he can win the west with the Angels being agressive this off season.

As for Bedard, I know I saw somewhere something about the O's not being adverse to a trade in the east. Will have to look for it.

The winter meetings could be one big trade after another (santana, Cabrera, Haren, Bedard etc), especially with a so so free agent class. Pumped!!!!

I can't believe what those scouts are saying about the Ellsbury Go-Boy. It's almost like those things were said before last September. This is a guy who has a chance to reach base on any ground ball, even if it's right at someone. Let alone the fact that when he's not hitting ground balls, he's hitting line drives all over the field and in the gaps, with the occasional dong. Like redsock says, his name might come up to make the Yanks give more, but I can't imagine we'd let him go for anything.

Also, the Yanks' package seems really weak to me anyway. Melky's played two seasons, and is no Coco in the outfield, and has only been a little better than Coco's last two seasons at the plate, which were both below average anyway. Other than those two years, the Twins would be getting very little major league experience out of the deal.

I also want the Yanks to keep Joba, because he's so fun to root against. And he's so hyped up (their website shows a picture of him, with his 30 major league innings or whatever, next to the "get your 2008 season tickets" icon), that it would be extra fun to see him totally fail. And in NY, he's gonna have to deal with a lot worse than some little bugs.

Hughes and Milk Dud seem set in stone -- Heyman says the third guy will NOT be Ps Ian Kennedy and Alan Horne or OF Jose Tabata. Or Cano. And Rosenthal is saying the Twins are also looking at AAA SS Alberto Gonzalez.

The Yankees, scared at facing a Santana-Beckett L-R duo staring them in the face for th enext few years, gulped and offered Hughes.

With NY offering a 2nd tier prospect, the Sox's 4-man package still seems stronger, even without Lyndon.

...

A SoSher says that Heyman was on WFAN and said the Twins are not as interested in Hughes, and would take the deal with the Red Sox if it includes either Buchholz OR Ellsbury.

BTW - We talked about Papelbon's reaction to this trade, here is Schillings (38 pitches) - "So we get caught up and another week gets checked off the calendar. The Santana sweepstakes are now heating up and from everything I hear there are some major offers on the table with a few teams making very serious runs at making this happen. I would bet top dollar that Johan is wearing someone else’s colors by the end of the GM meetings this week. I think he’d look awful nice in Red Sox whites and greys!"

the twins in talks today with the sox presented the offer from the yankees that includes Hughes, Melky, and a pick of two minor league non-pitching prospects and stated they would deal to the yanks if the sox did not include Buchholz instead of Lester or Ellsbury instead of Coco. The redsox have made Buchholz untouchable, but haven't been so absolutist about Ellsbury. All three teams want this done in principle by monday as to focus on other issues at the meetings.

Rosenthal of Fox sports (via baseballmusings) - Ellsbury is also a sticking point. If the Red Sox were to include Ellsbury in a package for Santana, the Twins would probably be required to expand the deal and that is not likely either...."The only way to keep (Santana) from the Red Sox is to get him," a Yankees official told the Post. "You can't hope some other team does it for you."

"With the Yankees' offer now upgraded to include top young pitcher Phil Hughes, the Twins spoke again with the Red Sox late Saturday afternoon, sources say, and Boston generated a few new ideas for its proposed offer."

Hmmm, I am going to say that it looks like this trade will go down either late tonight or tommorrow. So, assuming the Sox don't get Santana do we panic and go after Haren? Or do we look to strengthen our weaknesses (back up catcher, another bench outfielder etc) through free agency?

BTW - Only Gagne was offered arb., Class B free agent so he would generate a future draft pick.

Either Theo folds now or he swaps Ellsbury for Crisp (or some other creative move hinted at in the reports).

If LBJ is on the table, Minnesota can go back to the MFY and ask for Hughes AND Kennedy and Dud. (Hell, ask for Hughes and Bug Boy. Hank will shit if the Sox win this, so maybe he'll cave. Unlikely, though.)

If the Twins can get Hughes and Kennedy, they will likely go with that. (Theo should hold firm after Ellsbury.)

Theo has already got the Yanks to offer Hughes; can he get Cashman to further deplete his young arms?

Heyman: It appears the Red Sox would only consider parting with Ellsbury if the Twins offered an extra player or two in addition to Santana, and people close to the situation say that would take considerable creativity.

So, assuming the Sox don't get Santana do we panic and go after Haren? Or do we look to strengthen our weaknesses (back up catcher, another bench outfielder etc) through free agency?

I love the fact that those are the needs and weaknesses at this point. Back-up C, bench and probably a reliever... way better than the whole "who's playing 1B and CF" two years ago and the Drew (and Lugo) saga of a year ago.

Olney: With the Minnesota Twins insisting on center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury in any trade for pitcher Johan Santana, the Red Sox have altered their offer and have told the Twins they are willing to include Ellsbury.

But sources say the Red Sox have also told the Twins they will not trade left-handed pitcher Jon Lester and Ellsbury together in the package they are offering.

He went on to say the Yankees may set a deadline for the Twins to either accept or decline their offer. Looks like the Twins will have to decide who they want as a centerpiece to their deal: Hughes, or Ellsbury?

If it were me, I'd take the Hughes/Cabrera combination. But that's just me.

It has sounded (from what little we really know) like the Twins value LBJ quite a bit. But without Lester also in the deal, I can't imagine Boston getting Santana.

The Twins want MLB-ready talent, not LBJ and 2 of Masterson/Bowden/Lowrie. What is the new offer rumoured to be?

Blah blah: Re-signing Santana will be costly and could hamper the team in being financially flexible. There is also arbitration for Yook and Snuffer in the next year or two. But Curt will be off the books next year, and Manny may be too. That's $25+.

Shit...sometimes I wonder if this Santana deal is really worth it? I'm starting to think the youth of the Sox are going to be what carries us again in 2008 so I'm adamantly against giving LBJ up for Johan. Crisp and Lester I'm not as hung-up about but regardless of trade value or not I don't want LBJ to go.

Hell how about the possibility of Kazmir (provided there is one)? He's been hell to a lot of teams and he might be a good addition. So what if the MFY up the offer. I say stick to your guns Theo.

I am with Colin on this one completely. I do not want to see the team trade away LBJ---I think he will be a major contributor to the team for years to come. Of course, I am not a baseball scout---that's just my hunch.

I am reconciled to giving up Lester, though the sentimentalist in me finds it sad. But not LBJ.

So far Theo has done the things I as a far wanted: signing Schilling, Lowell, Wakefield, Timlin. I have faith that he will make the right decision here as well. I think this is all about making the Yankees pay as high a price as possible.