Voters Displeased With Both Parties Signal a Move Toward Democrats

N.H. Democrats Choose Establishment Candidate

Errant Hyphen May Have Cost Kavanaugh a Vote

McConnell's Focus Remains on Nine Tight Senate Races

Campaigns Announce Silence in Honor of Sept. 11

FEC Split Means End to Jill Stein Investigation

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Voters Displeased With Both Parties Signal a Move Toward Democrats

Marie Eriel Hobro/Associated Press

SHIFT ON MARGINS THAT COULD HAVE BROAD IMPLICATIONS: America’s partisan divide is so wide that voters with an unfavorable view of both parties account for only about one voter in 10. But these voters are relatively engaged this year, and they are sending a signal: Their preferences seems to be swinging away from the GOP and toward Democratic candidates.

In 2014, half of the "negative toward both parties" group said they wanted Congress to be controlled by Republicans, while only one-quarter favored Democratic control, Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling throughout the year found.

In 2016, this disaffected group also favored the GOP. Some 57% preferred Republican control of Congress, while one-quarter wanted a Democratic-led Congress.

This year, though, the "negative toward both parties" group favors Democrats. Half of these voters have said in Journal/NBC News polls this year that they want Democrats to lead Congress, while 36% prefer GOP control.

THESE VOTERS ARE DISSATISFIED BUT THEY AREN’T UNINTERESTED. Nearly half in the most recent Journal/NBC News poll rated themselves as highly interested in the election, compared with 54% of voters overall.

“This group helps to decide the margin of victory for one party or the other," said Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who works on Journal/NBC News surveys. “If the margins start to head solidly in one direction, that's a pretty good clue as to the size of the gains of one party or the other."

Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster who helps direct survey, saw a consistency in this group's outlook. “Their preference tips toward the party not perceived to be in power" in each election.

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N.H. Democrats Choose Establishment Candidate

MAINSTREAM CHOICE: New Hampshire Democratic voters in a perennial swing House district chose an establishment-backed candidate over a well-funded female military veteran Tuesday. But Democrats did chose a woman to be their gubernatorial nominee, adding to the record number of women running for governor this year.

In the House primary, Chris Pappas, a member of the state executive council who was endorsed by Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, was declared winner of the New Hampshire primary by the Associated Press in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.

Her district is considered a bellwether because it has changed hands between the parties every two years since 2010. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report says the district is leaning Democratic.

Mr. Pappas’ strongest rival was Maura Sullivan, a military veteran who raised more money and had the support of two powerful national groups—EMILY’s List, which supports Democratic women who back abortion rights, and VoteVets, a Democratic group that backs veterans. But she was handicapped by the fact that she had just moved to the district last year. Mr. Pappas emphasized his local roots.

GOP VOTERS: In their House primary, Republicans chose Eddie Edwards, a former police chief who was endorsed by Rudolph Giuliani, President Trump’s lawyer, to face Mr. Pappas in the general election. Mr. Edwards defeated GOP state senator Andy Sanborn.

New Hampshire Democrats chose state senator Molly Kelly as their gubernatorial nominee Tuesday.

Ms. Kelly faces a tough fight to unseat GOP Gov. Chris Sununu, who is one of the most popular governors in the country.

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Errant Hyphen May Have Cost Kavanaugh a Vote

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PUNCTUATION COUNTS: Republicans have made Judge Brett Kavanaugh's nomination a big midterm issue to demonstrate how they can steer the court to the right and Democrats will block their nominees. In one case, though, a senator's no vote may be about something much less partisan: punctuation.

Sen. Mark Warner (D., Va.) is voting against Judge Kavanaugh's confirmation, a decision he prefaced on Twitter by saying his requests to meet with the judge went unanswered by the White House.

“I would have liked to meet with Judge Kavanaugh personally before deciding how I’d vote,” Mr. Warner wrote in a Twitter post Tuesday.

“Even attempted to set up a meeting with him, though unfortunately the White House never responded.”

THAT ATTEMPT WAS APPARENTLY FOILED by an errant punctuation mark.

White House officials searched for Mr. Warner’s request after his tweet, and found an email intended for Mr. Kavanaugh’s scheduler. But the email address included an extra hyphen at the end, meaning it never reached its intended destination.

A pair of other White House staffers were copied on the request, but didn’t notice the hyphen and assumed the scheduler had received the email, a White House official said.

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McConnell's Focus Remains on Nine Tight Senate Races

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THE MORE THINGS CHANGE... For all of the political tumult of the past few months surrounding President Trump, one thing hasn't changed: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's assessment of the Senate landscape.

"We know this is going to be a very challenging election on the Senate side," the Kentucky Republican told local reporters in Louisville on Tuesday. He listed nine states where he said Senate races were too close to call: Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida.

"Every one one of them like a knife fight in an alley," Mr. McConnell said. "I hope when the smoke clears that we'll still have the majority in the Senate."

Those nine states are the same ones that Mr. McConnell cited in a May interview with the Wall Street Journal. The upshot: Mr. McConnell's focus hasn't changed and in spite of the intensity with which he is watching the races, the needle hasn't moved much from his perspective.

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Campaigns Announce Silence in Honor of Sept. 11

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KEEPING QUIET ON 9/11. As part of the national commemoration of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the two national parties and several candidates have suspended political activity for the day. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t a political issue. In many cases these moratoria are being announced by press release.

Rep. Lou Barletta (R., Pa.) said he wouldn’t run any television ads for his U.S. Senate race on Sept. 11. So did Democrat Jason Crow, the military veteran who is running against GOP Rep. Mike Coffman in the Denver suburbs.

“Coloradans will have plenty of time to learn about the differences between the candidates in this year’s election,” Mr. Crow said in a statement.

The Republican and Democratic National Committees for the first time agreed to halt most of their voter outreach for the day, according to the nonprofit group 9/11 Day.

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FEC Split Means End to Jill Stein Investigation

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THE FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION DEADLOCKED on a complaint about Jill Stein’s campaign accepting illegal foreign donations for its recount efforts after the 2016 presidential election. The party-line split means the Green Party candidate’s campaign won’t be fined or further investigated.

U.S. law prohibits foreign political donations, and one commissioner noted that Ms. Stein’s campaign didn't include notice of that prohibition on its website solicitation. Ms. Stein’s campaign spokesman Dave Schwab disputed that. The complaint included screenshots of several dozen Twitter users who said they had donated and listed foreign locations in their profiles.

“It’s not surprising that this evidence wasn’t seen as compelling considering that people can send tweets without making donations,” Mr. Schwab said.

The FEC’s general counsel argued that any foreign donations would have amounted to a minor amount of money. The commission’s two Republican members voted last month against taking any action on the matter.

Democratic FEC vice chairwoman Ellen Weintraub disagreed with the decision, writing in a letter on Friday, “It’s not always true that where there’s smoke, there’s fire. But where there’s smoke, it’s a pretty good idea to at least check to see if anything’s on fire.”

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New Jersey Democratic Candidate Looks to Stand Out

THE CHANGING SCENE FOR WHITE MALE CANDIDATES IN A YEAR WHEN WOMEN AND PEOPLE OF COLOR ARE IN THE SPOTLIGHT. Tom Malinowski stood atop a patio table at a bar in Bridgewater, N.J. Monday night to make the case for why his 7th District race is crucial to Democrats taking the House majority. Many of the questions were typical for a Democrat running in 2018, but he took objection to one point: being called "a middle-aged white man," like his opponent, Rep. Leonard Lance, a five-term incumbent who is 66 and white.

The questioner wanted to know how Mr. Malinowski would support women and LGBT rights if he won.

"Wait. I'm young," he said, pretending to pout, as the crowd of about 30 supporters laughed. But the 52-year-old had to admit there were similarities, especially when a woman gently heckled him.

"You gave it away when you said you worked in the Clinton administration!" she said, referring to Mr. Malinowski’s time as senior director on the National Security Council.

"All right, fine," he relented, saying that he considers support for Planned Parenthood and abortion rights "a public health issue for everyone in our society" and pointed to his record as assistant secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor, where he oversaw the appointment of the first special envoy for LGBT rights.

Cook Political rates the race as a "toss-up."

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Candidates Crowd the Ballot in New Hampshire Primaries

Chris Pappas, left, shakes hands with Maura Sullivan, right, as Paul Cardinal, center, looks on following a debate for Democratic hopefuls in New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District on Sept. 5.Charles Krupa/Associated Press

ELEVEN DEMOCRATS COMPETE IN FIRST DISTRICT: New Hampshire voters in both parties will pick candidates for the Granite State’s two congressional districts on Tuesday.

The most action is in the state’s First district, where 11 Democrats and six Republicans are vying to replace Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who isn't seeking a fifth term.

The leading Democrats are Chris Pappas, a state executive councilor whose family owns the Puritan Backroom, a locally famous restaurant in Manchester, and Maura Sullivan, a former Marine captain who worked in the Department of Veterans Affairs during the Obama administration.

Ms. Sullivan has raised about $1.8 million to Mr. Pappas’s $824,000. Mr. Pappas has argued he is the stronger candidate because Ms. Sullivan only recently moved to the state.

THE GOP PRIMARY IS A CONTEST between Eddie Edwards, a former police chief, and Andy Sanborn, a state senator. Mr. Sanborn has raised slightly more campaign funds, though Mr. Edwards won an endorsement from Rudolph Giuliani, President Trump’s attorney.

In New Hampshire’s Second district, seven Republicans are running to face Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster.

The Cook Political Report rates New Hampshire’s First district as lean Democratic and the Second district as likely Democratic.

— Reid J. Epstein

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Minor Memos

The Black Economic Alliance, a newly formed political group that supports candidates committed to economically advancing black Americans, has endorsed an additional 14 candidates ahead of the November election. The endorsed candidates—including Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D., Tex.), who is running to flip Sen. Ted Cruz's (R., Tex.) seat, and Antonio Delgado, who is running in a district in upstate New York—are all Democrats, though the group is officially nonpartisan.

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Kochs' Political Group Takes Aim at Gubernatorial Candidate in Michigan

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RAMPING UP: Americans For Prosperity, the Koch network’s political group, is out with a new advertisement attacking Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Michigan. The ad, which warns that Ms. Whitmer would slow down the Michigan economy, is the latest step the group has taken ahead of the midterm election. Americans for Prosperity last month endorsed eight House Republicans, promising to “fully activate its grass-roots infrastructure” on their behalf. Ms. Whitmer’s representative didn’t respond to request for comment.

The activity follows a rift between the influential donor network and President Trump, who attacked Charles and David Koch, billionaires and political activists, in July. Koch-backed political groups had decided against supporting Republican Senate candidate Rep. Kevin Cramer in North Dakota because of his position on trade, drawing Mr. Trump’s ire.

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Utah Rep. Love Admits to Improper Primary Fundraising

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REFUNDING CONTRIBUTIONS: Utah Rep. Mia Love’s re-election campaign will refund or redesignate money it raised for a primary race the didn't occur, the two-term GOP incumbent's lawyers wrote in a letter to the Federal Election Commission .

The campaign said it would refund or redesignate roughly a third of the $1,153,624 that the FEC said was improperly raised for a primary. In Utah, candidates aren't allowed to raise such funds if they have no primary race. Ms. Love's campaign disputes allegations that it wasn't preparing for a primary race.

Ms. Love is facing Democrat Ben McAdams, the mayor of Salt Lake County, in November. Cook Political rates the race competitive in the "lean Republican" category. A UtahPolicy.com poll published Sunday found Ms. Love with a slim 3-point lead over Mr. McAdams.

DeSantis Resigns to Focus on Florida Governor's Race

REP. RON DESANTIS IS STEPPING DOWN from Congress so that he can focus on his gubernatorial campaign. In a letter to House Speaker Paul Ryan, the Florida Republican wrote that “it is clear to me I will likely miss the vast majority of our remaining session days for this Congress” because of the campaign.

Mr. DeSantis, who won the state’s Republican primary with the support of President Trump, is facing Andrew Gillum in the general election. Mr. Gillum, a progressive Democrat and the mayor of Tallahassee, beat the establishment pick in the Democratic primary, making the Florida gubernatorial race a preview of the future of the two parties.

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Kelly Mulls Run for Arizona Senate After Kyl Steps Down

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CONSIDERING HIS OPTIONS: Every day, former astronaut Mark Kelly gets a call from someone asking if he’ll run for the late John McCain’s Arizona Senate seat. He got such a call Friday night at the Philadelphia airport.

An avowed political independent, Mr. Kelly is stumping across the country backing Democratic House candidates who support gun control measures. He is married to Gabrielle Giffords, the former congresswoman who was shot in the head outside a Tucson supermarket in 2011. He said he’s not telling people no.

ARIZONA GOV. DOUG DUCEY APPOINTED former Sen. Jon Kyl to succeed Mr. McCain, but Mr. Kyl said he won't seek election in 2020 and may himself leave the Senate early next year.

“I’ve never had this aspiration to be a member of Congress,” Mr. Kelly said Saturday in Pittsburgh. “But if it felt like I could serve my country again being on the inside of the federal government, I wouldn’t rule it out.”

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Pennsylvania Plays Central Role in Fight for Congress

KEYSTONE STATE IS KEY: Nine of Pennsylvania’s 18 House seats could change parties this year, a concentration of competitive races like nowhere else in the country due to the combination of court-ordered redistricting and a broader realignment of suburban voters away from the Republican Party.

Of the 63 GOP-held House seats that the Cook Political Report rates as lean Republican, a tossup or likely or lean Democratic, 31 come from six states. Democrats could run the table in battlefield districts in just four states—Pennsylvania, California, Florida and New Jersey—and capture the net 23 seats they need to seize the House majority without taking a single district anywhere else.

In Coatesville, Pa., Chrissy Houlahan nursed a chocolate milkshake at a diner on her way to a gun-control event and pondered the changing political nature of this Philadelphia suburb, which has been represented in Congress by an uninterrupted chain of Republicans for more than 100 years.

“If you had told me 10 years ago, here in Chester County, that we were having a conversation about this issue, I would not have believed you,” said Ms. Houlahan, the Democratic candidate for Congress representing Chester County.

Sen. Cory Booker Leads 2020 Headliners into Iowa

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SINCE PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ELECTED, most of the top tier of would-be Democratic presidential candidates for 2020 have studiously avoided traveling to Iowa and New Hampshire, instead focusing their energy on helping candidates on the ballot in 2018.

That’s about to change. On Saturday the Iowa Democratic Party announced New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker will speak at its Fall Gala in October, the party’s biggest fundraising event of the year.

Mr. Booker’s speech will come the day before California Sen. Kamala Harris speaks to an Ohio Democratic Party event in Columbus.

Mr. Booker will be the 23rd out-of-state Democrat to visit Iowa since the 2016 election, according to a list kept by Iowa Starting Line, an website that covers Iowa politics.

— Reid J. Epstein

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As Midterms Approach, Supreme Court Confirmation Timeline Tightens

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REPUBLICANS ARE HOPING TO PICK UP several Democratic votes to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court—especially senators up for re-election this fall in states won by President Trump. Their top targets are Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.

Senate Democrats hoping to halt the nomination are running short on time. Republicans have said they hope to have the judge confirmed and sworn in by the start of the court's October term. If they can get the necessary votes, Democrats have no procedural tools to halt the nomination.

THE SENATE WILL COME BACK into session on Wednesday, Sept. 12. The Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to attempt to hold a vote on Judge Kavanaugh on Sept. 13, but under the committee rules, Democrats can (and are likely to) request a one-week delay. That would set up a committee vote on Judge Kavanaugh on Sept 20, and clear the way for a floor vote in the Senate sometime the week of Sept. 24.

That schedule is subject to change, but it gives Democrats a little more than two weeks to make the case to any wavering Senate Republicans about why they shouldn’t support Judge Kavanaugh. Right now, the two swing Republican votes are Sens. Susan Collins (R., Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R., Alaska)—both of whom have signaled openness to voting for Judge Kavanaugh. Both women are broadly in favor of abortion rights

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Cuomo Leads in New York Gubernatorial Primary

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EMPIRE STATE SHOWDOWN: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo leads in polling over Cynthia Nixon, an actress and education activist, ahead of Thursday’s Democratic gubernatorial primary. Ms. Nixon, who is campaigning to the left of the governor, has pledged to overhaul New York’s City’s subway system and supports creating a single-payer health care system, a popular agenda item among progressives.

The governor, a two-term incumbent, has been touting his administration's infrastructure investments and recently has intensified his confrontations with President Trump. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows the governor leading Ms. Nixon by 33.5 percentage points. The winner will compete against Republican gubernatorial candidate Marc Molinaro in November’s general election.

Mr. Brown describes himself as a “true blue” Democrat and says in a campaign video that Ms. Raimondo “governs like a Republican.” Mr. Brown--who is endorsed by Our Revolution, the political organization created by Sen. Bernie Sanders loyalists--has criticized Ms. Raimondo’s role in spearheading the state's 2011 pension overhaul when she was state treasurer. The overhaul cut retiree benefits, which many denounced, but also shored up one of the nation’s most underfunded public retirement systems and brought Ms. Raimondo national attention.

MS. RAIMONDO, 47, BECAME THE STATE’S FIRST FEMALE GOVERNOR in 2014. She has won backing from building and construction-trade unions who applaud her work creating infrastructure jobs, although the Providence Teachers Union says it is staying neutral in the primary in part because members are still miffed at Ms. Raimondo over the pension changes. A party-establishment favorite, Ms. Raimondo has maintained a steep fundraising lead.

Former state representative Spencer Dickinson is also competing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. The winner could go up against Republican Allan Fung, the mayor of Cranston, who lost to Ms. Raimondo in the 2014 governor's race.

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Former Rep. Gabby Giffords Returns to Campaigning

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SEVEN YEARS AFTER SHE WAS SHOT in the head outside a Tucson supermarket, former Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is back on the campaign trail.

Ms. Giffords, who suffered a massive brain injury that paralyzed the right half of her body and left her with stunted speech, on Friday opened a campaign event for Pennsylvania Democratic House candidate Chrissy Houlahan with a halting minute-long speech imploring supporters to vote this November.

“These are scary times. Racism, sexism, lies, violence, it’s time to stand up for what’s right. It’s time for courage. We must do something,” she told an audience in Coatesville, Pa. “Do you have the courage to fight? Stand with me, vote, vote, vote.”

Ms. Giffords recently released her first campaign advertisement of the year for Virginia Democrat Jennifer Wexton and this weekend hit the road for candidates in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

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Who to Watch in 'Tax Reform 2.0' Negotiations

Peter Roskam (R., Ill.)Bill Clark/Zuma Press

TALKING POINTS FOR REPUBLICANS: If you're looking for a quick distillation of the partisan back-and-forth arguments on tax policy, tune into the House Ways and Means Committee next week.

The panel is expected to consider what Republicans are calling "Tax Reform 2.0," largely the extension of the parts of last year's tax law that expire after 2025. The bill isn't likely to become law, but it gives Republicans in tough races a talking point for the fall campaign and a way to tout the economic and pocketbook benefits of the existing law.

LISTEN ESPECIALLY INTENTLY to committee Republicans who are in tough re-election races, including Peter Roskam of Illinois, Erik Paulsen of Minnesota and Mike Bishop of Michigan. Also listen for others who aren't necessarily safe from a Democratic wave, such as Vern Buchanan and Carlos Curbelo of Florida, Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania, George Holding of North Carolina, Jackie Walorski of Indiana, David Schweikert of Arizona and Kenny Marchant of Texas.