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Friday, December 19, 2008

Giving the Gift of Hope

Saratoga Springs, NY, Dec. 16, 2008--The holiday bowl season is approaching and I have a new hero. His name is Pete Carroll, head football coach and twice national champion at the University of Southern California.

It was last Sunday and afternoon was turning into evening. The NYRA racing program was long over and wouldn’t return to Aqueduct again until December 26.

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was scrambling around inside my TV set and finally made something happen on the last drive of the game to defeat the Ravens. It wasn’t Affirmed-Alydar, but pretty damn good, anyway.

I just got a scoreboard update and noted that HRI resident sports handicapper Marc Lawrence had another undefeated week with his underdog NFL plays. He went 4-0, bringing the season slate to an otherworldly 25-10.

I spent three years as a sports handicapper for the defunct Racing Times, and then Daily Racing Form, barely showing a profit every year. So I know how difficult handicapping sports can be.

You might think it‘s easy; just take one side or the other. But that’s what everybody who helped build those glitzy buildings in Las Vegas thought, too.

I’ve seen the Lawrence database, which dates back to 1980. I’m sure there might be better, more comprehensive statistical team-sports studies, but I’ve never seen one is all I‘m saying.

I understand that what sports bettors refer to as technical analysis is not to everyone’s taste. But Lawrence’s permutations bring trend analysis to thoughtful new levels by adding a blend of current form and matchup analysis.

Couldn’t be happier Marc Lawrence is part of the HRI team.

Speaking of football, I always liked Pete Carroll, the coach. Yes, I know about his failed NFL career. But I followed him closely during his rookie season with the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.

I remember that Carroll’s Jets were in most every game. It impressed me that his players continued to play hard for their rookie coach despite a disappointing season.

I see the way some of today’s coddled athletes have no problem tuning out even their winning mentors. But his team played hard. On any given Sunday, they were simply outmanned.

What I like most about him now is what I saw on “60 Minutes” last weekend. Their coverage of Carroll, the newest “Prince of LA,” was about what he does in his spare time--his night job.

And I marveled that he’s been doing this since 2006 and I never had a clue.

Because this Carroll wasn’t about Pete Carroll. It was about his love, dedication and gift for reaching young people, youth that much of society gave up on a long time ago resulting in a triumph of do-nothing status quo over the promise of hopeful, decisive action.

Several nights a week, Carroll visits LA‘s toughest neighborhoods. No entourage. No security. No fear. Just confidence that his communication and motivational skills can make a difference to youngins’ that had never seen a gridiron except perhaps on TV.

When Carroll showed up with reporter Byron Pitts and a CBS film crew, he asked that they remain in the background as best they could, explaining that he didn’t want to violate the trust he received in this war zone of urban America, didn’t want to exploit them for publicity‘s sake.

When Carroll began following his heart three years ago, he was appalled that there were 300 gang killings in LA alone.

It was 1 AM, Pitts reported, and he was standing in front of a Watts housing project with about a half-dozen members of the Crips when lights from a helicopter illuminated the scene. “Ghetto birds,“ a gang member called it.

“Think about what you can do?” Carroll said to a member of his would-be street team. “You can be the one who puts a stop to this whole thing. It’s never been done before. Think about how awesome that would be?”

In the next scene he met with several members of the Community Intervention Training Institute, former gang members who turned their lives around and are dedicating themselves to today’s youth gangs.

Carroll was asked to speak to some of the young people, and it was chilling.

“I’ll probably wind up dead, or in jail,” one said. “I don’t know why,” said another, a 16-year-old, “but sometimes when I go to sleep at night I see myself inside a coffin.”

Carroll has put up some of his $4-million annual salary, recruited businessmen, celebrities, community and police groups to form “A Better LA,” where bands that previously worked separately are now working together.

Pitts asked Carroll if he thought his efforts were more than a naïve exercise.

“I tell those who disagree that it’s OK to have that opinion but just keep it to yourself for a while and give us a chance. Change isn’t easy. I think it’s important that you go out and try to create hope. I know it works. I‘m living it.”

Pete Carroll, twice national champion and an even better man. Who knew?

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Thoroughbred Racing: Study This

Saratoga Springs, NY, Dec. 9, 2008--”This game has been studied to death,” New York Racing Association vice-president, the late Pat Lynch, told me while I was enjoying a cup of coffee at NYRA nearly four decades ago.

Little has changed. And everything has changed.

Given that, I’m always interested to see the proposed agenda at the annual University of Arizona Symposium on Racing and Gaming.

According to blogs posted on the Thoroughbred Times and Bloodhorse web-sites, the goals were to identify the perception young people have about racing, and the realities and pressures associated with changing the face of the sport.

“How to speak to racing’s diverse demographic target market,” is the subject of a panel discussion entitled “Gen Y and Baby Boomers.” Horse safety and tote security are two factors that seriously impact how the game is perceived.

There will be a strong Jockey Club presence vis a vis safety and welfare, it was promised, with discussions on the reporting and prevention of injuries, and an updating of industry initiatives.

Good thing those JC officers are pulling double duty. These days they need to justify those hefty paychecks reported in circulated e-mails authored by those pesky boardwatch folks over at the California Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association .

I have some thoughts that might help, too.

The first is, what youthful perceptions? It’s hard to find any more than two youths at a racetrack at any one time. Can’t remember the last time a young person stopped me on the street to ask the time of day.

Horse racing doesn’t exist for young people. Maybe some of the old people would have taken some of the young people to the track with them when they were a lot younger themselves.

But you lost them long ago when you failed to fix the “juice” issue, you priced your product too high because you didn’t understand what business you were in, or you just flat-out gave them bad service.

And since no one is likely to say something like that in public for four days in Tucson, I thought somebody should.

But that’s not just me talking. It’s what your customers talk about all the time. They’ve given up on you paying them more than just lip-service at about the time they stopped bringing their children to the racetrack--when they learned they couldn’t in good conscience tell their kids that being a participatory racing fan was such a good bet.

Of course, the breakdowns are the worst of it. And I don’t think that any informed, fair-maiden person would accuse the industry of not doing its best with respect to reporting and prevention.

But the industry has done nothing about the medication issue for so long that even reasonable lovers of the game have lost faith that the industry can once again exist as sport. Some are still out there, but you’re scaring them half to death.

The trouble now is that the ones you’ve take for granted--those who bet their money and make all manner of livelihoods possible, including mine--are beginning to walk.

And what is the public’s perception of what the industry is doing to fix it? That powerful factions in racing would rather shut out some of its best customers and alienate the rest because they want a larger ADW-share of racing’s shrinking pie.

Great timing.

So far the good news is that the American race horse is outliving the American iron horse, but not by much. And, since no one asked, allow me to contribute something of a positive nature based on recent events.

Bettors are leaving the racetrack to play poker on the Internet. Guess they didn’t see the recent “60 Minutes” segment showing how hackers cheat online players by looking at everyone’s hole card.

Will racing exploit this fact? Don‘t bet on it. Will they do something to counter the ever shrinking fan base? They had better.

Could there be a better opportunity than in these desperate times to market investing in the horse market to the young and engaged, telling them how they could teach themselves how to fish for life? So, how do you reach them?

Through Internet, television and radio media. Like the sports touts, only with dignity, intelligence and class. This is a niche. Appeal to it.

Advertising must teach that despite its high cost, horse-race investing offers tremendous opportunities to earn big with a small investment--if people are willing to devote the time to learn the handicapping discipline.

Because who are you going to trust your future to? Government? Corporations? Teach them how the takeout might be better on Wall Street but that there are far fewer crooks on Union Avenue, at the corner of Birdstone and Bird Town.

Change the paradigm. One of the symposium Internet speakers had it right: “chase the concept, not the dollars.”

But there’s no one in charge to stop the madness.

Like we said, so far, the American race horse is surviving, but on life support. However, if the end should come, after we shut all the lights we can say that at least we left behind a considerably smaller carbon footprint.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Breeders’ Cup 25 Served Sport Well but Failed Horseplayers

Saratoga Springs, NY, November 6, 2008--Philosophical differences that Thoroughbred fans and the media had with Breeders’ Cup Ltd. regarding the evolution of World Championship event days notwithstanding, fair minded observers cannot argue that the recent silver anniversary edition was an artistic triumph.

For every defeat of Curlin there was acknowledgment of the sporting gesture made by his connections and the emergence of a pair of young European standouts on America’s biggest stage.

And for every lament regarding the creation of a racing program dedicated to equines of the female persuasion, there was a star named Zenyatta who remained perfect, stepping up to save the day, and a concept.

Zenyatta gave the architects something to build on. Her performance was a rousing one, indeed worthy of a Saturday showcase. But was there not some symmetry in having the stage all to herself, an award-winning actress in a leading role?

But there was no getting away from the notion that expansion, the past and present reality of sports, dilutes specialty and excellence. That was a prevailing theme among the opposition for creating races having no real significance beyond their existence in support of a two-day event.

There certainly are enough good horses stationed around the globe to make a racing festival truly worth celebrating, the American racing industry playing host. And only through international participation does the term World Championships have meaning. Before an idea takes root, you start somewhere first.

Until Breeders’ Cup reaches that point--perhaps when races named Breeders’ Cup would reflect only Eclipse Award categories, or perhaps when an expanded program truly represents championship Grade 1 status--expansion serves one function; to grow the bottom line.

Parenthetically, Breeders’ Cup must consider how further expansion could seriously dilute established championship events. The Filly & Mare Sprint is redundant but I understand why it exists, serving Eclipse recognition. But while great milers may be regarded as having the makings of a superb stud, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile is a tweener, neither sprint nor classic. And unless it‘s a one-turn mile, what‘s the point?

But what added races do for growing parimutuel handle, synthetic surfaces do in reverse. The wagering public remains confused by them, mostly because early speed loses its efficacy--not on all synthetics, but on most. Only the Juvenile produced a speed-laden result, but maybe Midshipmen and Square Eddie just were the best horses, too.

Handle was down significantly in the Classic likely owing to the pre-publicity surrounding Curlin’s ability to handle an artificial surface, or lack thereof. Pro-Ride plays like grass, over which he suffered his only previous 2008 defeat. One great synthetic-track workout is no guarantor of winning performance. Those concerns probably adversely affected Pick Six and Pick Four handle as well.

As long as Breeders’ Cup is not shy about wanting to grow its handle, it must do much better servicing the wagering public. Over the years I have made repeated requests that equipment and medication changes be announced when the final fields are set at the post position draw. It’s never happened.

Why this is not standard operating procedure is disgraceful. Wagering information is not the exclusive province of the racing office or past-performance disseminators.

Most Breeders’ Cup venues have house rules governing this issue. Blinker, shoe, and medication changes are vital, especially regarding first-time or re-addition of Lasix. Breeders’ Cup, through the auspices of the Santa Anita racing office, did a terrible job at BC 25.

The first nine races were drawn so rapidly, in fact, that literally hundreds of media lacked sufficient time to write down final jockey assignments. Think that’s critical information? Think you might want to know if your choice would be racing on the diuretic in 90-degree heat? To wit:

The enormously gifted and prolific Aidan O’Brien seldom, if ever, ships from Europe to the U.S. without putting his horses on Lasix. And why not? It’s within the rules, levels the playing field and, as everyone knows, is a harbinger of improved performance.

At entry time Tuesday of Breeders’ Cup week, O’Brien entered his horses without requesting Lasix, according to Mike Marten, spokesperson for the California Horse Racing Board, who circulated an e-mail to columnist Nick Kling of the Troy Record. However, either Marten was misinformed, or was misleading.

The e-mail stated O’Brien was “unfamiliar with California authorized bleeder medication procedures.” But O’Brien’s actions and personal past performances belie that statement. Ultimately, O’Brien was granted permission to add Lasix and was fined $2,500 by the stewards for missing the deadline.

On Friday, Bloodstock Research Information Services reported that O’Brien’s Heart Shaped was scheduled to race with first-time Lasix whereas his other starter, Halfway To Heaven, was not. The official track program reported the same information.

After Heaven To Heaven apparently bled, O’Brien approached the stewards to request that all four of his Saturday runners be allowed to race with Lasix. Yet, on Friday, BRIS reported that U S Ranger and Henrythenavigator would race with Lasix, but that Westphalia, Soldier Of Fortune, Red Rock Canyon and Duke Of Marmalade would not. The track program had the same information. The problem is that time-lines don’t jibe.

Early in the day, Trevor Denman announced the late changes, but that’s far from an acceptable system with such a large crowd on hand. In fact, betting information was sloppy all weekend. No less than Zenyatta, a regular Lasix user, was listed as running without it until the announcement corrected the error.

As bad, Sprint winner Midnight Lute, the subject of much speculation regarding his physical condition, had a protective plate removed from a sore hoof. I learned this from Ed Fountaine of the New York Post over post-race cocktails, who said he heard the announcement on the television broadcast. It was not in the program nor do I remember hearing Denman announce it.

There is no event that provides as much information to the racing media for public dissemination than does Breeders’ Cup Ltd. And it’s been that way from year one. But if they truly want to cash in on BC’s popularity as a wagering event, they must remember they’re in the gambling business and do their job correctly.

Breeders’ Cup commendably staged its first steroid-free event this year. Now it’s time to institute another rule. Even if equipment and medication changes are a house rule, make it a Breeders’ Cup rule to avoid confusion that’s costly only to the betting public. Inform the media at the post draw. They’ll take care of the rest.