The Senate cloture vote on the tax deal

So the Senate voted overwhelmingly last night to close debate on the tax deal, by 83-15 with two not voting.

Lots of people are remarking on how surprising it is that most liberal opposition melted away at the last minute, as only nine Democrats voted no. But I'm somewhat more surprised that only five Republicans voted against. One of those five, George Voinovich of Ohio, opposed it for his own reasons, that he didn't think the tax cuts were defensible. But only four voted no from a conservative position.

So why is this interesting? Because, remember, Rush Limbaugh has been fulminating against the deal, and a couple of national tea party groups said they opposed it and would pressure lawmakers to do the same. Those are usually pretty powerful levers in GOP politics, but this time, their efforts fizzled.

Maybe they just want to get home for Christmas. Maybe they're waiting to see what the House does. Remember, the Senate will vote again on final passage. If House liberals succeed in making the estate tax numbers more progressive, maybe a lot of GOP senators will break against it and it will barely pass next time (when it needs only 51, not 60).

As much as liberals are attacking the whole business as another Obama sell-out, I can guarantee you that Limbaugh and the conservative blogosphere and commentariat will spend the holidays inveighing against this massive sell-out by establishment Republicans to Obama, thus steeling the resolve of the incoming class of tea-party-backed senators and House members to block such capitulations to socialism. It will be an interesting year.

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