January Auto Sales Expected to Be Flat from a Year Ago

SANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–ALG,
the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a
vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries,
will reach 1,130,500 units in January, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light
vehicle sales is an estimated 17.5 million units for the month, down
from an 18.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S.
retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with
923,369 units.

“Exceptionally strong sales to close out 2016led to a slow start
in January, but additional incentives towards the end of the month
helped pick up the slack,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,635 per
vehicle in January, up 21.6 percent from a year ago, and down 3.3
percent from December 2016.

“On a year-over-year basis, Honda is gaining about 0.5 percent market
share on the continued popularity of its new products in the compact
utility and pick up segments,” said Lyman.

Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships
and private-party transactions, may reach 3,139,957, up 7.9 percent
from January 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

January

2017 Forecast

January 2016

% Change vs.

January 2016

BMW

20,700

21,390

-3.2

%

Daimler

25,000

26,962

-7.3

%

FCA

141,000

155,562

-9.4

%

Ford

167,000

172,478

-3.2

%

GM

198,000

203,745

-2.8

%

Honda

105,000

100,497

4.5

%

Hyundai

40,500

45,011

-10.0

%

Kia

40,000

38,305

4.4

%

Nissan

103,000

105,734

-2.6

%

Subaru

46,000

41,101

11.9

%

Toyota

160,000

161,283

-0.8

%

Volkswagen Group

40,500

36,430

11.2

%

Industry

1,130,500

1,148,057

-1.5

%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

January 2017 Forecast

January 2016

December 2016

BMW

1.8

%

1.9

%

2.2

%

Daimler

2.2

%

2.3

%

2.2

%

FCA

12.5

%

13.6

%

11.5

%

Ford

14.8

%

15.0

%

14.1

%

GM

17.5

%

17.7

%

18.9

%

Honda

9.3

%

8.8

%

9.5

%

Hyundai

3.6

%

3.9

%

3.6

%

Kia

3.5

%

3.3

%

3.2

%

Nissan

9.1

%

9.2

%

9.0

%

Subaru

4.1

%

3.6

%

3.7

%

Toyota

14.2

%

14.0

%

14.4

%

Volkswagen Group

3.6

%

3.2

%

3.8

%

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

January 2017Forecast

January 2016

YoY %Change

BMW

19,884

20,061

-0.9

%

Daimler

23,225

25,170

-7.7

%

FCA

101,500

113,274

-10.4

%

Ford

116,000

114,090

1.7

%

GM

157,000

165,686

-5.2

%

Honda

103,500

99,148

4.4

%

Hyundai

29,000

28,522

1.7

%

Kia

32,500

30,364

7.0

%

Nissan

82,000

79,246

3.5

%

Subaru

44,718

39,280

13.8

%

Toyota

137,000

140,255

-2.3

%

Volkswagen Group

37,635

33,893

11.0

%

Industry

923,369

923,674

0.0

%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Incentive per Unit Jan 2017 Forecast

Incentive per Unit Jan 2016

Incentive per Unit December 2016

Incentive per Unit % Change

vs. Jan 2016

Incentive per Unit % Change

vs. Dec 2016

Total Spending January 2017 Forecast

BMW

$

6,016

$

4,192

$

5,956

43.5

%

1.0

%

$

124,114,569

Daimler

$

4,648

$

3,592

$

4,885

29.4

%

-4.8

%

$

116,207,827

FCA

$

4,408

$

3,856

$

4,469

14.3

%

-1.4

%

$

616,627,187

Ford

$

4,114

$

3,054

$

4,156

34.7

%

-1.0

%

$

687,038,184

GM

$

4,504

$

4,094

$

4,653

10.0

%

-3.2

%

$

891,763,957

Honda

$

2,231

$

1,672

$

2,289

33.5

%

-2.5

%

$

234,289,096

Hyundai

$

2,602

$

1,904

$

2,603

36.7

%

0.0

%

$

105,400,435

Kia

$

3,411

$

2,823

$

3,390

20.8

%

0.6

%

$

136,457,746

Nissan

$

4,335

$

3,502

$

4,463

23.8

%

-2.9

%

$

446,508,217

Subaru

$

1,120

$

570

$

1,170

96.6

%

-4.2

%

$

51,539,888

Toyota

$

2,538

$

2,093

$

2,820

21.3

%

-10.0

%

$

406,097,261

Volkswagen Group

$

4,117

$

3,155

$

4,254

30.5

%

-3.2

%

$

165,486,112

Industry

$

3,635

$

2,990

$

3,761

21.6

%

-3.3

%

$

4,090,739,254

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an
industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the
United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each
year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial
services clients with market industry insights, residual value
forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk
services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital
automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency
about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50
years and in Canada since 1981.