Hello and welcome to the movie blog of author John DeFrank - FilmZ and Guy Sobriquet Malone - Researcher

[Disclaimer: What follows is not the opinion of management (FilmZ), lest any sensitive cinephiles out there get the vapors in a fit of pique. I take full responsibility for its contents. GSM,R]

To put things in context at the beginning:Roma is tied with The Favourite for the most Academy Awards nominations with ten, including Best Picture, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Actress, and Actress in a Supporting Role. It enjoys a 96 (out of 100) from Metacritic--an aggregate score of some of the best critics in the US.Bohemian Rhapsody has five Academy Awards Nominations, including Best Picture and Best Actor. But it scored an anemic 49 on Metacritic.

I saw Roma and Bohemian Rhapsody on consecutive days, and I liked BohemianRhapsody more.

Reflective researcher that I am, I asked myself, what is more important in judging a film, how much we appreciate it or how much it entertains us? Ideally, both; at least there should be some balance.
A funny thing happened as I watched these particular movies.

Several critics urge fans to see Roma in the theater (rather than Netflix) to get the most out of the visual experience. I can tell you another reason: if you watch it in the comfort of your home, say, in a recliner with a cup of cocoa, you are likely to doze off. Lucky for me, FilmZ and the Czarina were there to rifle jujubes at my face whenever I faded. Roma is auteur Alfonso Cuaron's lyrical autobiographical paean to his childhood maid and his reminiscence of a fractured family in the Roma section of Mexico City in the early-1970s. Make no mistake, Cuaron is a brilliant, two-time Oscar winner and multiple nominee who has directed films as wildly divergent as the sci-fi Gravity, the dystopian Children of Men, the coming of age Y tu Mama Tambien, and my favorite Harry Potter entry, The Prisoner of Azkaban. He has earned our respect. True, I was mesmerized by Roma: the black and white photography; the slow, dreamlike camera pans, like the one that shows the protagonist hanging the family wash on the roof that reveals other maids doing the same thing on rooftops across the neighborhood; the vignettes that play out like our own nostalgia--little moments like a sunburn at the beach as well as big ones like a family tragedy; the artsy touches like the reflection in the wash water of the jet soaring overhead. A worthy tribute to a beloved woman. My conclusion: For a slow, quiet, drama, give me Debra Granik's pensive Leave No Trace.

I had avoided Bohemian Rhapsody as long as I could. When it was first released, few critics had anything good to say, and even acquaintences said it was like a VH-1 production, the only selling points being Rami Malek's performance as Freddie Mercury and the fabulous music. Further damping our desire was the director, Bryan Singer; the less said about him the better. Then came the Golden Globes nominations, then the wins, then the Academy Awards nominations. We could resist no longer. FilmZ, the Czarina, and I headed out to the local third-run theater (a place reminiscent of Shelob's lair). And then something strange happened. A good cast, including Lucy Boynton (Mary, love of Freddie's life), Gwylim Lee (lead guitarist Brian May), Ben Hardy (percussionist Roger Taylor), Joe Mazzello (bassist John Deacon), Allan Leech (sleazy manager Paul Prenter), and Tom Hollander (ethical lawyer Jim Beach) convincingly parlayed the hackneyed dialogue and Cliff Notes plot into somethng we cared about. It didn't hurt that the music took us back decades on our own nostalgia trip, and we cared that these brilliant guys got together to form Queen, that the synergy of their talents would create a singular sound. We wished Freddie would not hurt Mary or his family or his bandmates; that he would pursue happiness instead of self-destruction. We truly were moved and thrilled, and in the end, we mourned the loss of Freddie, but, damn, that last performance. Sometimes, I think the big-time critics get together at a bar and agree whether or not a movie is good.

Back on November 19, we posted our "Too Early Academy Award Nomination Predictions" and now that the results are in, it's time to face a reckoning. Making predictions like this before many of the most prestigious pictures have been released is a fool's errand; in that case we were the right "Guy" for the job.

The films First Man and Widows are perfect examples. Two months ago, they looked like contenders; however, the former was forgotten, and the latter was not as good as expected. As a result, our predictions across categories were hammered--those two films provided our only misses in the Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay. They also provided one of only two misses with Director, Cinematography, and Original Score.

* We'vereprintedour November 19 predictions below.
* Don't be confused by the terms FRONTRUNNERS and CONTENDERS; FRONTRUNNERS were our picks, and CONTENDERS were individuals and films that had a chance to pull an upset nomination.* All new commentary is in bold. Also, all actual nominees are in bold, with our "misses" in regular print.

BEST PICTURE - (maximum of ten nominees)
Potential surprises: First Man and A Star is Born could face backlash; Roma might be confined to the Foreign Film category; the yet-unseen Mary Poppins Returns could blow everyone away; much beloved Black Panther could overcome the blockbuster stigma and make waves.Roma exceeded even its own high expectations, tying The Favourite with 10 nominations. Black Panther did indeed make waves. And we completely missed out on Bohemian Rhapsody, which defied critics and impressed the Academy.

Where we missed big: Bohemian Rhapsody [We did not predict its nominations; it received 5]
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DIRECTOR - (five nominees)
This is a crowded field that bears watching over the upcoming weeks as some films push to the forefront and others fall off. Right now, critics anticipate great things from many films, but audience reaction to these directors' movies will have something to say about it. Regrettably, so will industry politics and the dreaded backlash. It looks like there are eleven contenders, and frankly, we wouldn't be surprised if any of them receive nominations.Cuaron and Lanthimos were safe picks, and they are probably still the frontrunners. Selectors must have thought Best Director and Best Actor were too much for Cooper.An important note: the expanded Academy membership that includes a big influx of international members has thrown a monkey wrench into predictions. Seeing Pawel Pawlikowski join the group is a shot across the bow at traditional Oscar selectors.

ACTOR - (five nominees)
Bradley Cooper is the only lock here, and Ethan Hawke or Lucas Hedges could slip in and replace one of the frontrunners. Dafoe won the Best Actor award at the Venice Film Festival, but few have seen his film here, and no one has seen Eastwood yet. Mediocre reviews from TIFF could hurt Jackman.Our big win here is the pick of Dafoe, who received little love back in November, and our disrespect for Ethan Hawke, who most critics loved.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS - (five nominees)
Some of these choices are speculation. That may be because we haven't seen most of the contenders yet. Adams, Stone, and Weisz are usual suspects here and King is getting a lot of positive buzz, but only Foy is a known quantity. At this point, any of the contenders could move up.The shocker here, is Marina de Tavira, whom no one predicted for a spot.

Where we missed big: Marina de Tavira - Roma
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SUPPORTING ACTOR - (five nominees)
The general consensus has Chalamet among the favorites, but our gut sees other favorites. The only shoo-in is Ali, but industry love of Elliott is strong, and word of mouth for Grant is exuberant. We thought BlacKkKlansman was Driver's best performance to date. Jordan is always terrific, and we hear that Kaluuya is chilling in Widows.We rest our case.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - (five nominees)
Conventional wisdom predicts A Star is Born to be a nominee, if not a favorite, in this category. Considering that this is the fourth go-round for this film, we don't really follow the wisdom here. We're feeling pretty good about our frontrunners as the final group of nominees, but hey, we've been wrong before.We liked Buster Scruggs, so no quibbles here for missing out on that.

Where we missed big: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
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ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - (five nominees)The Favourite and Green Book seem like certainties, and Eighth Grade is a festival and critical darling that could get a nomination here as a nod to the fondness with which it is held. Again, Paul Schrader's First Reformed is believed by many to be headed for a nomination, but we're thinking Adam McKay (Vice) better hits the zeitgeist. A Quiet Place is a very cool movie and it deserves recognition, but it seems like the experts touting it are being ironic.What we said above pretty much summarized this category.

CINEMATOGRAPHY - (five nominees)
The favorite is, of course, The Favourite; period pieces always have a leg up in this category. FirstMan makes us feel as if we were in the '60s, in space, on the Moon. A Star is Born is immersive.Cold War and Never Look Away took us by surprise and are evidence that this year's Oscars will provide some shockers like we haven't seen in years.

FRONTRUNNERSThe FavouriteFirst ManIf Beale Street Could TalkRomaA Star is Born

CONTENDERSAt Eternity's GateBlack PantherCold WarGreen BookWidows

Where we missed big: Never Look Away
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EDITING - (five nominees)I provided no text for this category in a weak attempt to be ironic. It's probably good no one noticed because this was my worst predictive category.

Where we missed big: Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book
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PRODUCTION DESIGN - (five nominees)
Again, the well-done period piece has an advantage here, thus The Favourite. But we also give props to the world building in the other films. This will be an interesting race.Roma again exerted its muscle.

CONTENDERSCrazy Rich AsiansIf Beale Street Could TalkNutcracker and the Four RealmsMary Queen of ScotsRomaA Star is Born
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ORIGINAL SCORE - (five nominees)
Whether it's stirring us, mesmerizing us, or setting the atmosphere of the film, we have some clear-cut delineations among the competing films.We loved BlacKkKlansman, so any recognition it gets is fine with us.

CONTENDERSBlacKkKlansmanTheNutcracker and the Four Realms_________________________________________________________________________________Below are the categories we were too lazy and/or too ignorant of to address in November. We provide them for your interest and information. At Oscar time we will predict all categories.DOCUMENTARY FEATUREFree SoloHale County This Morning, This EveningMinding the GapOf Fathers and SonsRBGFOREIGN LANGUAGE FILMCapernaumCold WarNever Look AwayRomaShopliftersORIGINAL SONG"All The Stars" - Black Panther
"I'll Fight" - RBG
"Shallow" - A Star Is Born
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - Mary Poppins Returns
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" - The Ballad of Buster ScruggsANIMATED FEATURE FILMIncredibles 2Isle of DogsMiraiRalph Breaks the InternetSpider-Man: Into the Spider-VerseCOSTUME DESIGNThe Ballad of Buster ScruggsBlack PantherThe FavouriteMary Poppins ReturnsMary Queen of ScotsMAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLINGBorderMary Queen of ScotsViceVISUAL EFFECTSAvengers: Infinity WarChristopher RobinFirst ManReady Player OneSolo: A Star Wars StorySOUND EDITINGA Quiet PlaceBlack PantherBohemian RhapsodyFirst ManRomaSOUND MIXINGBlack PantherBohemian RhapsodyFirst ManRomaA Star Is BornDOCUMENTARY (SHORT)Black SheepEnd GameLifeboatA Night at the GardenPeriod. End of SentenceANIMATED SHORT FILMAnimal BehaviourBaoLate AfternoonOne Small StepWeekendsLIVE ACTION SHORT FILMDetainmentFauveMargueriteMotherSkin