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Editorial advisory board: Dry December

Posted:
12/15/2012 01:00:00 AM MST

Local climate trends and dramatic weather disasters are causing people to start talking about global warming again, but it's disturbing that the subject was almost completely absent from the 2012 election season. Understandably, people don't like to talk about unpleasant topics but it doesn't help when skeptics, backed by powerful fossil fuel interests, can shut down renewable energy debates with a mention of Solyndra.

We shouldn't have to wait for tragic events like superstorm Sandy to shake Americans out of this "can't do" attitude. Scientists have been publishing irrefutable data on climate change for decades. Glaciers are melting at alarming rates, and according to NOAA's latest State of the Climate report, 2012 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record for the 48 contiguous states.

In Boulder, citizens have shown that they are willing to put dollars behind making progress on greenhouse gas emissions. Ballot measure 2A, which extends an energy tax that supports Boulder's Climate Action Plan, passed last month with over 82 percent of the vote.

We are late to the game. Much damage has already been done. Progress on reducing greenhouse gasses will continue to be slow as long as we stay silent when people make the disingenuous claim that we "don't know for sure" whether warming is being caused by people. Progressive communities like Boulder should keep the debate moving forward, so let's not forget to make some noise at the state and national level.

Many people will uncritically blame fossil fuel use for recent warm weather. But they are blind to how fossil fuels have reduced climate-related deaths since the 1920s. Since then, climate-related death rates have decreased by 98 percent, explains a Reason Foundation study. During this time, carbon dioxide emissions increased significantly.

Thanks to the fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and farm machinery enabled by fossil fuels, increased global food production has made droughts less deadly. Where extreme weather leaves people hungry and injured, fossil-fuel based transportation enables fast delivery of food, medical supplies, and disaster response units.

Wealth is a population's best protection from climate risks, and wealth creation requires affordable, reliable energy. But billions of people in poor under-developed countries are still very vulnerable to climate risks. They need affordable and reliable energy -- now. Obstructing their use of fossil fuels endangers their lives.

And droughts? Two recent studies published this year challenge the notion that global warming contributes to them. In the Journal of Climate, CU-Boulder and NOAA researchers "conclude that projections of acute and chronic (increases in severe droughts)... are likely an exaggerated indicator for future Great Plains drought severity." In the journal Nature, Princeton University researchers find that "there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years." In the same issue of Nature, a lead IPCC author wrote that "the findings imply that there is no necessary correlation between temperature changes and long-term drought variations."

Climate change is real. The evidence is all around us. It is irrefutable. It hardly matters whether it's human-caused, if, by our actions, we can slow it down. We need time to adapt. Our hydrocarbon-dependent lifestyles will not be sustainable long term. We may not run out of such fuels soon, but if we burn them too quickly, accelerating climate change, it won't matter. The earth will survive, but we won't.

Petroleum companies already have proven reserves sufficient, if developed, processed and burned, to quintuple the safe level of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. Left to their own devices, they'll do it, without remorse, to secure a higher return for themselves and their investors. While they're at it, they'll spend time, money and other resources in a concerted effort to thwart every attempt suggested or made to curb their appetite, slow the burn rate, or revalue their inventory.

What should responsible investors do about reckless behavior conducted in their name? Protest and divest. 350.org's nation-wide tour describes the challenge as the moral equivalent of the South African apartheid movement in the late 1970s. I find it hard to disagree. The smartest investment we can now make in our collective future is energy conservation. We need to sip, not guzzle fossil fuels. We can save money in the near term, while we secure a brighter future for our children.

The oil industry is going rogue. Divestment is the conservative choice.

Since I'm a part-time resident of Eagle County and an avid skier, I look at Colorado weather patterns through the prism of annual snowfall. Just two years ago, Vail had a record-breaking 550 inches; last year, a dismal 214 inches fell. This year, only 53 inches have been recorded as of mid-December (345 inches is average). Why the dramatic decrease?

Although it's normal to have a dearth of snow in the Rocky Mountains once every 20 years or so, two consecutive bad seasons is certainly not commonplace -- nor is a 300 inch year-to-year plunge. Something is definitely awry.

Having been evacuated from my home (twice) during the 2010 Labor Day fire -- and nearly again last summer -- I'm keenly aware of Colorado's persistent dry conditions. Brutally hot summers, insufficient rain, and paltry snowfall seem to be the new normal. Unfortunately, our windstorms remain the one annoying constant!

I've long been a climate-change skeptic, but recent national storms and our local weather have me rethinking my position. While it's prudent to evaluate climate changes over longer periods (say 100 or even 1,000 years), it's hard not to conclude that our planet is warming up when you look at how inconsistent and tumultuous the past decade has been.

The thought of local wildfires becoming a year-round threat, summer water being rationed due to insufficient snowpack (as has occurred numerous times where I live), and ski seasons shrinking (or ending, heaven forbid), makes me nervous. Very nervous.

"Is the Earth getting warmer?" is 2013's version of "How many angels can fit on the head of a pin?" They are both answerless questions. Compared to the Little Ice Age, it's warmer, but compared to the Middle Ages Warm Period, it's cooler. A better question is whether the current warming trend has serious repercussions on our life on earth. The answer is "yes; it already has."

For those who believe fate controls what happens, taking action to address climate change is a waste of time. For those, including myself, who believe that humans can exert some control over our environment, we are obligated to at least try.

There are numerous ways to reduce global warming. By minimizing our carbon footprint, we can modulate climate, even if only by a small amount. At an individual level, we can recycle, bike, and live in ways respectful of our atmosphere. At an advanced level, scientists are planning fantastical experiments, such as using iron to fertilize the oceans or building extra-terrestrial umbrellas to shield the earth from the sun.

These efforts will reduce greenhouse gases, which in turn will slow climate change. Global warming is real; it doesn't matter what's causing it. We can reduce its impact, but not if we choose to be passive bystanders.

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