Study: Taunton faces slight enrollment decline

The School Committee got a glimpse into the district’s future Wednesday, as the New England School Development Council presented the findings of a study it conducted on the school system’s demographics and projected enrollment trends.

The School Committee got a glimpse into the district’s future Wednesday, as the New England School Development Council presented the findings of a study it conducted on the school system’s demographics and projected enrollment trends.

The NESDEC study projects a slight decline in enrollment, just a 155-student difference, by the 2019-20 school year.

“That’s a very minimal number,” said John H. Kennedy, a NESDEC demographic analyst.

The School Committee will use the data presented in the report to help plan for the future and address issues that may arise during tight budget cycles. Chairman Joseph Martin said the committee hasn’t ruled out the possibility of redistricting or closing a school to address the district’s budgetary needs. It is important, he said, to have as much information as possible before making such a decision.

“You have engaged in something not all districts do,” Kennedy told the committee. “You have engaged in some forward planning, which is very commendable.”

Kennedy is scheduled to return to next week’s committee meeting to present the findings of NESDEC’s study on Taunton’s school building capacity and utilization.

During Wednesday’s meeting, Kennedy shared historic demographic data that showed shift in Taunton’s population and demographics as baby boomers aged.

“During the 1990s, Taunton was growing at a much more rapid pace than the city or state,” he said.

Taunton’s population then peaked in 2002 at 56,557, but from 1999 to 2009, there was a 4.3 percent drop in enrollment in the city’s schools. This correlates with a declining number of recorded births in the city during the 1990s and 2000s.

Over the next decade, Kennedy projects Taunton’s student enrollment, which is currently 7,939, to bottom out in 2014 at 7,794. It is expected to hover around that level through decade’s end.

The projections were based on assumptions that the number of births in the city will hold steady; the number of students entering kindergarten each will be 85 percent of the number of births recorded five years earlier; housing turnover rates won’t vary significantly from current levels; and single-family housing growth over the next 10 years will be in the range of 308-68 new units each year.

“We do not see any major changes at any of the schools given the assumptions we made,” Kennedy said.