FAU sees clear, but difficult path to bowl berth

FAU coach Carl Pelini reacts to a play during the Owls' loss to Marshall

FAU coach Carl Pelini reacts to a play during the Owls' loss to Marshall (USA TODAY SPORTS)

Dieter Kurtenbach, Sun Sentinel

Entering Saturday's game as 10-point underdogs, FAU wasn't expected to beat Marshall until they almost did.

Perception on who was the better team changed quickly during the game, but a 35-yard pass — FAU coach Carl Pelini: "It wasn’t even a good throw. He just went up and made a play." — to set up a 41-yard field goal as time expired left FAU on the losing side of the contest.

The Owls could have easily put themselves in a scenario where they needed to win three games out its next five to go to the program's first bowl game since 2008. Because of the loss, the Owls will have to tack another win onto that total, but they can't tack on another game.

Heading into Saturday's game, TeamRankings.com put FAU's chances at going to a bowl game at 60 percent. After the loss to Marshall, the odds are no longer on FAU's side — that projection now gives FAU a 46 percent chance to go to a bowl game.

FAU should be favored to win three of its remaining games — contests against Southern Miss, New Mexico State and FIU — but it will be a massive underdog on the road when it plays its next game, at Auburn in two weeks.

If FAU can pull off the massive upset at Auburn, it changes not only this season's projections, but the entire program's. But in all likelihood, FAU's season will ride on a pick-em game at home against Tulane on November 2.

Tulane entered this season having won only four games in the last two years, but the Green Wave knocked off Conference USA leaders East Carolina in triple-overtime Saturday, giving it a fifth win this season.

FAU's bowl game probability will go down slightly after a loss to Auburn, but it will become nil if the Owls lose to Tulane. FAU's season will be decided in the next two games — what other team in the country can say that?