After months of watching a slow but steady decline
in gas prices, Northwest drivers should brace themselves for sudden increases caused
by maintenance at refineries in California and Washington, the AAA said
Tuesday.

So far, the year at the pump has been a quiet. The national and Oregon averages have both dropped about a nickel
since January 1.

In the past week, the national average for regular
unleaded has dipped about a half a cent to $3.27 a gallon, while the Oregon
average shaved a penny to $3.28.

Washington held steady at $3.32,
the 18th most expensive gas in the country. Oregon moved to 21st
to 24th on the list of state's paying the most for gasoline, according
to the AAA.

"Cold temperatures
across much of the country have led to weak demand and kept prices fairly flat
to begin 2014," said Marie Dodds, spokeswoman for the AAA of Oregon and Idaho. "Both
averages are more than 20 cents a gallon below the year-ago prices when the
national average was $3.52 and Oregon's was $3.49."

However, the AAA expects prices to move higher
in the coming weeks and months, Dodds said.

Prices typically jump sharply in February because
many refineries cut production to conduct seasonal maintenance, which limits
gasoline supplies and causes market uncertainty, Dodds said.

"This refinery maintenance generally takes place
between strong demand periods for heating oil in the winter and gasoline in the
summer," she said. "The mandated
switchover to cleaner burning summer-blend gasoline production must take place
in advance of the May 1 deadline."

In fact, gas prices skyrocketed 56 cents per gallon in
spring 2012 and 86 cents per gallon in 2011.

Last year, the national average increased 49 cents
per gallon over 41 days before peaking at $3.79 per gallon on Feb. 27. In
Oregon, the statewide average increased 49 cents between Jan. 1 and March 31, 2013,
and went on to peak at $3.98 on May 22.

Although demand for gasoline in the Northwest is
expected to remain flat in 2014, the overall demand for refined oil may rise as exports to Australia and Asia are likely to increase, Dodds said.

What's more, the Tesoro refinery in Richmond, Calif.,
is expected to shut down a 36,000 barrel per day unit in the coming months to
comply with California's cap and trade regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse
gases.

"This anticipated reduction in
production is expected to tighten the regional gasoline supply and pressure
pump prices higher," Dodds said. "The decreased production is also expected to
make the region more susceptible to price spikes from any unexpected
disruptions."

For 2014, the AAA's outlook for West Coast drivers predicts
2014 pump prices will likely be close to or even slightly higher than 2013's average
regular unleaded price of $3.63 per gallon.