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Ashes 2013: Jim Maxwell's series preview

Difference-maker? David Warner could be a trump card for Australia if he's given free rein in the middle order.

Getty Images: Michael Steele

In the build-up to this Ashes series there's been plenty of scorn for the Australian team. Complicit in the discussion and the analysis is the missile: the Dukes cricket ball.

England's comparative skill with the Dukes is historic, and potentially controversial because the umpires may change the ball more often if there's any hint of damage, natural or intentional, in the condition of the missile.

Rival teams envy England's management of the ball and the early reverse movement the hosts achieve.

Their greatest swing practitioner is Jimmy Anderson. Armed with new or old, Dukes or Kookaburra, orange or tomato, Jimmy is a marvel and a match-winner.

So in the hoo-haa speculation about Australia getting whitewashed, because its batting is fragile, let's stop for some suncream. The forecast for the rest of July is akin to the 2012 London Olympics: Warm, dry, take a hat, slip-slop-slap.

So it's conceivable that the ball won't swing as much as it would on cloudier overcast days and that batsmen will prosper against all the dread expectations of collapse or, in commentary speak, batsmen nicking off.

I'm not a bookie and I take the advice of a legendary Australian commentator who says, "don't bet on anything that talks."

But what are the chances of the first two Tests being drawn because the batting in the sunshine will be dominant on flat pitches?

Australia's hopes of testing England will rise if its batsmen can keep the hosts in the field for more than a day, because in the wearying grind of Test match cricket bowlers will tire, break down and struggle to back up.

And on both sides. Mickey Arthur was laughed at when he suggested, for home audiences perhaps, that Australia had the best bowling attack. The point was depth, and in terms of pace support he's right.

Jackson Bird, Ryan Harris and James Faulkner are shadowing the expected first Test trio of James Pattinson, Peter Siddle and Mitchell Starc, whereas England essentially has four frontliners in Anderson, Stuart Broad, Steven Finn and Tim Bresnan. They've already had plenty of cricket and some flat pitches won't help their durability.

England's trump card is Graeme Swann. On dry turning surfaces he's also a match winner and at Old Trafford he might be decisive. Australia will go after him if it can, and that's where David Warner is the wild card. Given a license at number six - akin to Adam Gilchrist - to play his risk-reward game, Warner is potentially Australia's trump card.

The enforced rest maybe just what Warner needs coming off a T20/one-day white-ball starvation diet. And post Walkabout he looks as fit as Lionel Rose in his knockout heyday. The swipe he took at Joe Root won't be the last assault on England.

Yes I can talk up a big show like any other Aussie pundit, and if it's 2-0 to England after Lord's my reading of the tea leaves might be better placed at Goodwood. But I suspect that this series is going to be much closer than Ian Botham and his acolytes are predicting.

The first Test starts at Trent Bridge on Wednesday night (AEST). Grandstand will bring you live streaming commentary and constant updates via Twitter and our daily Ashes blog.