Week 1 NCAA Predictions

Scores from every upcoming game

By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com

August 27th, 2008

Each Monday morning will preview every college football DI FBS game of the upcoming week. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Monday morning before the week. All of our college football content, including our most recent power rankings and links to the preview is located here. If you want to take WhatIfSports weekly college football and/or NFL picks with you (to your MySpace, Facebook or personal homepage), please see the widget below on the right or at this page.

The inputs to the 201 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. This may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Games of the Week: #14 Alabama 18 vs #7 Clemson 28
Two top 15 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings clash in a great early season battle that may help determine which of these teams is legit (though we obviously like each of them). Both squads are talented, but Clemson has the clear edge in experience, and it helps them get past the Crimson Tide 72.1% of the time in Week 1.

#30 Utah 23 @ #27 Michigan 24
This may be the most compelling game on the schedule. With Brian Johnson at QB, Utah has a legitimate chance to be the best non-BCS team in the country this season. Those hopes may disappear if they lose to Michigan in Rich Rodriguez's home opener. Appalachian State made the statement last year and Utah can echo it. Our win percentage actually favors Utah, while the average score favors Michigan. That just means that this is too close to call for now and should be must-see TV.

#12 Illinois 31 vs #9 Missouri 39
Both of these teams return a great deal of talent, primarily on offense - and it shows in the final score. With Vontae Davis and Marvez Wilson, the Illinois defense may be the most athletic unit on the field, but it may also be the most experienced. Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin out-duel Juice Williams and Arrelious Benn (again) in this rivalry game. The Tigers win 59% of the time and by an average score of 39-31.

#21 Fresno State 34 @ #40 Rutgers 32
Pat Hill and Fresno State will play anyone anywhere. No season will that be more evident than this one as the team will travel to Piscataway, New Jersey for Week 1 and then return home to face a top ten team in the Wisconsin Badgers in Week 3. The simulation has Fresno State winning 59% of the time and by an average score of 34-32. This statement would not be nearly as loud as the one Utah could make, but it has to happen if the Bulldogs are going make any waves as a non-BCS team this season.

Week 1 Scores for Every FBS Game

Matchup

Home Win%

Avg Score

Charleston Southern @ Miami (FL)

95

4-39

Delaware @ Maryland

95

3-44

Jacksonville State @ GA Tech

95

4-40

James Madison @ Duke

95

4-32

McNeese State @ North Carolina

95

5-41

Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati

95

4-42

Hofstra @ Connecticut

95

4-42

Tennessee-Martin @ South Florida

95

4-47

Villanova @ W. Virginia

95

3-57

Akron @ Wisconsin

95

7-35

Coastal Carolina @ Penn State

95

4-44

Maine @ Iowa

95

4-36

Youngstown State @ Ohio State

95

2-61

Chattanooga @ Oklahoma

95

3-61

Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech

95

4-44

Fla. Int. @ Kansas

95

9-43

South Dakota State @ Iowa State

95

5-29

Illinois State @ Marshall

95

5-40

South Carolina State @ UCF

95

4-39

Southern University @ Houston

95

4-40

Towson @ Navy

95

7-40

Eastern Illinois @ C. Michigan

95

4-46

Northeastern @ Ball State

95

5-41

Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young

95

4-45

Southern Utah @ Air Force

95

5-40

Northern Arizona @ Arizona St.

95

4-44

Appalachian State @ LSU

95

4-56

Georgia Southern @ Georgia

95

3-60

Western Illinois @ Arkansas

95

5-37

California-Davis @ San Jose State

95

5-28

Grambling State @ Nevada

95

6-46

Idaho State @ Boise State

95

5-41

Indiana State @ E. Michigan

95

6-32

Hawaii @ Florida

95

14-38

NC St. @ S. Carolina

95

8-33

Western Kentucky @ Indiana

95

11-40

Cal Poly @ San Diego State

95

7-25

North Texas @ Kansas State

93.4

16-39

Bowling Green @ Pittsburgh

91.8

14-33

Idaho @ Arizona

90.2

16-36

LA-Monroe @ Auburn

88.5

10-32

Florida Atlantic @ Texas

85.2

23-32

Memphis @ Mississippi

80.3

16-32

Arkansas St. @ Texas A&M

78.7

22-36

Washington @ Oregon

78.7

20-35

Utah State @ UNLV

75.4

17-31

Alabama @ Clemson

72.1

18-28

LA-Laf @ S. Miss

72.1

22-36

Syracuse @ Northwestern

70.5

20-34

Vanderbilt @ Miami (OH)

70.5

12-27

W. Michigan @ Nebraska

68.9

18-30

Northern Illinois @ Minn.

67.2

24-37

Ohio @ Wyoming

65.6

14-24

Kentucky @ Louisville

60.7

25-34

UTEP @ Buffalo

60.7

23-28

Illinois @ Missouri

59

31-39

SMU @ Rice

55.7

26-35

Troy @ Mid Tenn

52.5

15-23

Michigan State @ California

50.8

25-30

Utah @ Michigan

49.2

23-24

TCU @ New Mexico

42.6

19-17

Fresno State @ Rutgers

41

34-32

Virginia Tech @ East Carolina

36.1

22-22

Tennessee @ UCLA

31.1

30-23

Colorado @ Colorado St.

24.6

30-20

Boston College @ Kent St.

18

26-17

Oregon State @ Stanford

16.4

23-16

Oklahoma State @ Washington St.

13.1

37-25

Tulsa @ UAB

9.8

37-21

Mississippi State @ Louisiana Tech

6.6

25-10

WF @ Baylor

5

29-14

Temple @ Army

5

27-10

USC @ Virginia

5

36-9

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