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Return to a path of dynamic growth

Despite a rather dynamic world economy and especially a notable recovery of the Eurozone the Swiss economy was not quite growing as expected – at least not in the past year. Because of weak growth in the first half of 2017 the economic outlook for the full year 2017 has been corrected downwards. The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered its economic growth projection in September 2017 to 0.9% (June 1.4%) and BAK Economics to 1.0% (June 1.4%).

However, it is not expected that the predicted economic acceleration won’t happen at all. It is rather expected to happen in the second half of the year 2017 and will go into full swing in 2018. Accordingly, the forecast for the Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) is being corrected upwards for the year 2018. The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s growth forecast is 2.0% (June 1.9%) and BAK Economics’ is 2.3% (June 1.8%).

The driving force is, besides a solid global demand especially from Europe, the continued depreciation of the Swiss franc to the Euro. Both developments point to a positive forecast for the Swiss export sector. In addition, it is expected that the positive developments in the Swiss job market will also signal growth impulses in the national demand.

A similar scenario can be seen in Basel-Stadt. BAK Economics’ latest forecast now also points to slightly weaker growth for the year 2017 compared to its forecast from last summer. With a growth rate of 2.5% it is however, compared to the Swiss economy overall, a solid growth projection for Basel’s economy. For 2018, a clear acceleration and growth of the cantonal GDP of 3.8% is expected.

This positive economic outlook is reflected in the forecast for the job market in Basel. The cantonal group of experts estimates a stable trend of the unemployment rate. In the Canton of Basel-Stadt an average rate of 3.7% is expected for 2018.

Sources
For the Swiss forecast sources are „SECO Konjunkturtendenzen Herbst 2017“ as well as the BAK Economics press release: „BIP-Prognose für die Schweiz“ dated 14.09.2017 and 13.06.2017 and for the cantonal forecast BAK Economics (dated 19.10.2017).