Friday, January 22, 2010

Looking at the Democrats

You wouldn't know it from reading the blogosphere but liberal Democrats are actually pretty happy with the direction of their party right now. On our most recent national poll 76% expressed that sentiment.

The other wings of the party are not that content- 58% of moderates say they like where the party's headed but only 39% of conservatives do.

Those conservative Democrats unhappy with their party aren't complaining too loudly about it- they're just going out and voting for Republicans, as many of them did on Tuesday in Massachusetts.

On the whole Democrats (60%) are happier with their party than Republicans (35%) are with theirs.

Personally I'd like to believe that being more forceful and progressive and exciting the base is what would get Democrats out of the hole they're in right now but my job is to draw conclusions based on our polling and based on that I think things are generally fine with the base- the party's problem is voters, even within the Democratic ranks, who think the party's gone too far to the left. I think it's entirely debatable whether the party has actually gone too far to the left but the perception is there- even in Massachusetts 53% of voters said Congressional Democrats were too liberal. I don't have any easy answers for how you solve that problem while also having substantive policy successes- and I don't think anyone else does either.

6 comments:

Anonymous
said...

"even in Massachusetts 53% of voters said Congressional Democrats were too liberal. I don't have any easy answers for how you solve that problem while also having substantive policy successes- and I don't think anyone else does either."

Well, maybe you can realize that attempting to achieve your desired "policy successes" will get that response every time in this country. And that's a good thing.

In spite of your control of government, those that oppose you hold the real political power and are setting the agenda. Your "policy successes" will be few and far between as terrified dems run for cover. After November it will all be defense, recriminations and shame for those that brought this sick joke upon us. Freedom reigns!

Do you really not understand why this country immediately recoils and changes direction every time the left gets control? It's because those "Teabaggers" weren't a so fringe after all. Turns out Pelosi, Reid and Obama are the fringe. Go figure.

Take heart, however. If you can just keep those borders open, eventually you can overwhelm those now beating you bloody in the public square;

Be careful of drawing conclusions from numbers. Liberal Dems have a lot of gripes, but they are not going to vote Republican because that's so much worse.

In Mass. people voted their pocketbooks. They already have health insurance so don't need to be taxed on it.

In Mass. people voted against the woman and the party who dissed them.

You are ignoring the recent CBS pole and the other poles that say the health care plan is not liberal enough! http://trends-by-mindbridge.blogspot.com/2010/01/americans-dont-feel-health-care-reform.html

One solution would be to focus on stuff that centrists and moderates tend to like: hype up whatever modest success we're having in Afghanistan, present at least the appearance of deficit reduction, maybe appear to do something to "keep jobs in America" by attacking foreign corporations (e.g. by preventing them from adveritsing in US political campaigns!), and, above all, go after Wall Street. That doesn't mean abandoning health care: it means putting it in the rear view mirror-- the House should pass the Senate bill.

It's all well and good to say that the Democrats have to play to the center, but abandoning health care reform now is political suicide:

1. If they have problems motivating their voters now, imagine if the Dems fail to pass anything meaningful? Why should the base should up? Donate? Knock on doors?

2. Why would low-information swing voters vote for a party that doesn't vote the most important part of its own legislative program? Wouldn't they just conclude that (a) the Democrats are too incompetent to govern or (b) the Democrats must have a bad platform since they don't even believe in their own policies?

3. It is too late to turn back now. The Senate and House have already voted for health care reform. The Republicans are already going to campaign against the Democrats voting for $900 bn of taxing and spending - even (and especially) if the Democrats wimp out at the last moment. If there isn't a bill that actually provides coverage to millions of people, I don't know what the Democrats are going to say back.