会议日程Meeting schedule

5月9日(一)

15:00 报到手续

15:00 展示会开幕

15:00 CRU主办 铝市场工作坊

18:00 招待酒会 by Alba

5月10日(二)

08:00 登记报到

08:00 展示会开幕

09:00 主题演讲 ― 铝业界的挑战与机会

Will Chinese aluminium demand contract more than anticipated?
What opportunities will growth in the transport sector present?
Will Chinese producers restrain production growth?
What is the outlook for production costs?
What strategies will producers adopt to survive and thrive in these highly competitive markets?
What are the key advantages of low carbon primary aluminium?
How much more capacity will be added by expansions of smelters in Shandong, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia?
Will LME price drop low enough to deliver more supply cut backs

How will Chinese control overcapacity in the future?
What is the outlook for power costs in China?
The Paris Climate Change Summit of December 2015: is it relevant to the global aluminum industry? If so, how?
To what extent will currently idled capacity in China restart if prices improve?
What are the prospects for delay in the ramp up of projects in India, Malaysia, Canada and Russia?
Will there be further closures outside of China?
Where will new greenfield and brownfield capacity in China sit on the global cost curve?

To what extent will alumina curtailments support price?
Will Malaysia lengthen its bauxite export ban?
Examining the bauxite market balance and price projections.
What is the outlook for Chinese bauxite production and its relationship with Malaysia? What bauxite sourcing options does China have in the future?
What is the outlook for high grade CPC availability?

Overview of global scrap availability beyond 2015 and an assessment of the key determinants of scrap usage
What impact will the drive to increase scrap content in downstream products have on primary aluminium demand?
China is a scrap importer, but for how long?

What is the outlook for further trade defense measures in the US?
Will China gain market economy status in the US and Europe - what would the impact be for the aluminum market?
Will Chinese producers be successful in having the export tax removed on primary ingot

What is the outlook credit costs and the Chinese banking sector?
What is the outlook for consumer led growth in China in coming years?
Analysing the outlook for the USD, Euro and the Renminbi?
Examining growth projections in developed and emerging regions
What is the outlook for global oil prices?
What is the outlook for Chinese industrial production in 2016?

09:30 需求 ― 世界各地区展望

Assessing the challenges and opportunities in the Chinese and Middle Eastern construction market
Examining packaging market trends in Asia, North America and Europe
What is the outlook for aluminium intensive vehicle production in the USA?
Analysing the outlook in the aerospace market
What are the prospects for aluminium consumption growth in Europe, Russia and Brazil?
Examining the outlook for Indian and Chinese wire and cable demand
How much aluminium consumption will China account for between 2015 and 2020?
What is the outlook in the ASEAN market?
To what extent and in which regions will aluminium continue to gain market share from copper in conductors and steel in transportation?
What is the outlook for warehouse demand for aluminium?

Corporate Management Team Member, SAPA

10:40 Q&A

10:45 休息

11:15 价个预测 ― 铝价格低下

Forecasting aluminium price between 2017 and 2020
What is the outlook for warehouse demand for aluminium?
Will LME measures like queue-based rent capping and an increase in the minimum daily load-out rate reduce premiums to even lower levels or will reductions be offset by closures in the US market?
What is the outlook for the Renimbi and Chinese primary and semi-finished exports?
How will US, European and Japanese premiums perform relative to one another?
What is the outlook for the LME forward curve? Will we see greater levels of volatility in 2016?
Funds are increasingly exiting long positions and waiting for the right moment to increase short positions - to what extent will this reduce price?
What is the extent of metal stocks and what impact will these exert on the market?
Analysing the outlook for coal, oil and production costs