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07/29/2010

Relief arrives!

THE COOL FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD. AS WE SUSPECTED, THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER HERE. THE STRONGEST T-STORMS TODAY OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, DE, MD, AND VA. OF COURSE, THERE IS CURRENTLY A BOX OUT FOR THAT ZONE UNTIL 7 PM.

FARTHER TO THE NORTH, DEW POINTS ARE NOW LOWERING NICELY. AT 2PM, WHILE THE DEW POINT IN THE PARK WAS 70, IT WAS DOWN TO 58 AT SCRANTON AND 56 AT BINGHAMTON. THAT NOTICEABLY MORE COMFORTABLE AIR MASS IS HEADED OUR WAY, AND THAT WILL SET UP A COUPLE OF VERY NICE DAYS HERE WEATHER WISE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW NIGHT, WE EXPECT CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND THE COOLEST TEMPS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE EARLY THIS MONTH.

SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COMFORTABLE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF TOMORROW. UNFORTUNATELY, OUR WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, OUR SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME, MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE FORECASTING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS HERE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS. THAT COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. MANY LOCATIONS WILL END UP NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 70S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT A FORECASTOF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY JUST WON'T CUT IT IN SOME PLACES, AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF STEADIER RAIN, INCLUDING DOWNPOURS. JUST WHERE THAT WILL HAPPEN, HOWEVER, IS STILL VERY TOUGH TO PINPOINT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT IT MAY TEND TO BE FAVORED SOME PARTS OF VA, MD, AND DE UP INTO THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF PA. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD STILL WAIT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY BEFORE WE GET MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD, THE TROF WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY RISING BY THEN. THAT SHOULD LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS. WE WILL LIKELY GET BACK INTO A VERY WARM, HUMID PATTERN AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.